SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
326 AM MST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
...WINTER STORM SYSTEM STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING...              
HEAVY SNOW HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO               
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS JUST AFTER WE CAME IN THE DOOR.  SOME             
REPORTS HAVE COME IN WITH STORM TOTALS OF 6-10" OR MORE FOR PIKES               
PEAK AREA AND 10-12+" FOR WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.  SO               
FAR...ABOUT 2-6 INCHES PROBABLY FOR THE PUB AREA...FINALLY                      
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHERE JUXTAPOSED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW!               
STILL TOO EARLY IN THE MORNING TO CALL MANY SPOTTERS.  MID-CREW WILL            
TRY TO GATHER ADDITIONAL TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AFTER THE SUNRISE               
FOR THE MEDIA.  DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE GATHERING TOTAL           
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                                                               
TDA: CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ANIMATION HAD VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH/LOW JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS INTO               
CENTRAL NM.  LATEST RUC HAS AN EXCELLENT BEAD ON THE SYSTEM.  RUC               
TAKES SHORTWAVE INTO CENTRAL NM BY 15Z/16 THEN INTO SOUTHEASTER NM BY           
18Z/16. PUB VAD WIND PROFILER SHOWING WIND BECOMING MORE                        
NORTHEASTERLY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OF AND AWAY               
FROM THE AREA.  NEW DEFORMATION CLOUD STRUCTURE TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE            
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO/SOUTHWESTERN KS. 700-               
500MB SHOWING SOME FRONTOGENETICAL/SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS                 
SOUTHEASTERN CO AT LEAST UNTIL 15Z-16Z/16. LATEST PUB RADAR TRENDS              
HAVE BEEN A DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RETURNS. APPEARS              
NEXT DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION ZONE SETTING UP FOR 77/79/80/81. WITH            
SNOW STILL FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS WILL CONTINUE              
ADVISORY FOR CONTINUITY.  HATE DROPPING SNOW ADVISORIES WHEN IT IS              
STILL SNOWING.  CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS GOOD. OVERALL              
SHORT RANGE MODELS TRENDS ARE FOR VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO CONTINUE                
MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. STILL SOME              
TYPICAL MODEL BIASES ON THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL                  
SYSTEM. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING                
FAIRLY STABLE(3-4 C/KM)...AND RELATIVELY DEEPER DRIER AIR MASS                  
STILL PROGGED TO ENGULF CO...SO PRECIPITATION ENDING AND CLOUDS                 
CLEARING LOOKS A GOOD BET. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIG CHALLENGE.  FIRST            
WOULD THINK MOS GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...BUT IN THE PLAINS ANYTHING CAN           
HAPPEN. COOLEST TEMPS...IN THE PLAINS...COULD BE NEAR CO/KS BORDER              
DUE TO POTENTIAL LATE CLEARING AND RELATIVELY DEEPER COLD AIR.                  
TNGT: MORE TRANQUIL NIGHT. DAYSHIFT WAS CONCERNED ABOUT DENSE FOG               
DEVELOPING AND CERTAINLY STILL COULD OCCUR.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO               
REPLACE CURRENT SYSTEM TNGT IN RESPONSE TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM.            
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVENT DEVELOPING. DEPENDS ON ACTUAL               
DEGREE OF SNOW MELT TDA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW GOOD DRYING(10-               
20% RH) IN THE LOWER TROP WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10KTS DEVELOPING. THERE           
COULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING TO COMBAT FOG/STRATUS                
DEVELOPMENT.  MIGHT BE SHALLOW DENSE FOG??  IF SOUTHERLY SURFACE                
WINDS DEVELOP...COULD BE SOME SHALLOW UPSLOPE FOG/STRATUS ACROSS EL             
PASO COUNTY...SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  WITH SO MANY IFS...PLAN              
TO HOLD OFF ON HITTING THE FOG HARD IN THE ZFP.  WILL LET DAYSHIFT              
REFINE NEXT FORECAST. WITH A CLEAR SKY...SHOULD SEE DECENT                      
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO JUST BELOW MOS IN AR RIVER VALLEY AS MAY           
BE NOT LOW ENOUGH...BUT SNOW MELT COULD INCREASE SURFACE DEW POINTS.            
FRI: STILL DEALING SOME MODEL CONTINUITY PROBLEMS.  PACIFIC                     
NORTHWEST "OPEN WAVE" AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD.  BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE              
PRETTY GOOD CONTINUITY ON TIMING OF LONGWAVE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...             
BUT THERE ARE PROBLEMS WITH POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN                
SHORTWAVE. ETA/NGM TAKES IT INTO EAST CENTRAL UT/WEST CENTRAL CO...             
WHILE AVN IS MUCH STRONGER AND ALREADY INTO NORTHWESTERN CO.  ALL               
MODELS DO AGREE WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND SEEMS             
REASONABLE GIVEN IR/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MID-LEVEL                   
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PRECEDE UPPER SYSTEM.  CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD             
SUGGEST THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR SAWATCH RANGE AND POTENTIAL             
DOWNSLOPE WARMUP FOR PLAINS AND NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION.  CURRENT ZFP            
IN-LINE WITH CURRENT MOS AND WILL FOLLOW.                                       
EXTENDED: CURRENT 60-72HR AVN LOOKS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING LIKE                     
YESTERDAY'S 84-96HR MRF.  WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CLOSED LOW OVER                  
GREAT BASIN DIPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST??  LATEST SHORT RANGE             
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST 60-72HR AVN WOULD HAVE A CORRECT TREND...                  
EXCEPT FOR SOME POSITION AND STRENGTH ISSUES.  "IF" THE AVN 60-72HR             
VERIFIES...DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SYSTEM.  QUALITY OF DEEP                 
MOISTURE IS POOR...EVEN FOR THE "WATER-LOGGED" AVN.  COULD BE A                 
BORA WIND PATTERN FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...BUT NOT REAL STRONG.              
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST BEST THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE NORTH               
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND VERY LITTLE IN THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND                
PLAINS.  WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WORDING AND ADD "WINDY AT TIMES"                 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FOR FRI NGT/SAT.  NO CHANGES              
TO REMAINDER OF EFP.                                                            
THANKS FOR THE COORD. CALLS DDC/ABQ!                                            
.PUB...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 77/79/80/81 UNTIL MID MORNING.            
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
230 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
SOUTHERN AND CNTRL LA AND SOUTHEAST TX REMAINS IN THE WARM SLOT AS              
CU FIELD DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC TROF            
IS DEFINING THE BNDRY BETWEEN SHWRS AND TSTMS ACRS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND            
EASTERN LOUISIANA WITH NLY FLOW AT SFC EXPERIENCED OVER SOUTHEAST               
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERLY IN ADV OF THE SFC TROF.             
SFC LOW OVR CNTRL TX WITH STALLED COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CENTRAL TX             
INTO AR WITH PRECIP OVER RUNNING BNDRY INTO THE COLD SECTOR. SHARP              
DEMARCATION IN FRNTL BNDRY WITH TEMPS RANGING FM 75 TO 80 IN ADVANCE            
OF THE FRNTL BNDRY AND 38 TO 42 BEHIND THE BNDRY THIS AFTN.                     
COLD FRNT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH UPPER LVL SUPPORT. FRONT                
MOVES INTO THE AREA TMRW. ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL              
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THE TRIGGER FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE                
THE STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. OVRNGHT STORMS LOOK TO              
MOVE INTO EXTREME SE TX AND SOUTHERN LA TOWARDS SUNRISE AND THOUGH              
FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BELIEVE THAT ENOUGH FEATURES              
ARE IN PLACE THAT FEW STORMS TMRW MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND JUST              
IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BNDRY.                                                    
AS FOR MDLS... WELL THEY INITIALIZED WELL... THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH         
ETA AND NGM HANGING TOGETHER WHILE AVN AND RUC GO THEIR OWN WAY.                
BELIEVE THAT UPR LVL CLOSED CUT OFF LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO                   
EASTERN TX BY TMRW AFTN. AS A RESULT... STRONG FRNTL PUSH NOT IN                
PLACE AND THEREFORE FRNTL BNDRY BECOMES HUNG-UP OVER THE COASTAL                
WATERS TMRW AFTN. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRNT               
FOR FRIDAY EVE.                                                                 
OVERRUNING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONT PRECIP INTO FRIDAY EVE                    
TAPERING OFF BY EARLY SAT MRNG AS UPR LVL LOW KICKS OFF TWRDS THE               
NE. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY.                                   
.LCH...                                                                         
LA...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
BPT 61/73/52/70 3630                                                            
LCH 61/72/48/69 3630                                                            
LFT 61/73/52/68 2630                                                            
AEX 60/69/43/65 2630                                                            
K. KUYPER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
230 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE GOING UP ONCE AGAIN TO OUR WEST OVERNIGHT WITH          
BETTER CHANCES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA.                    
18Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS TWO DIFFERENT AIR MASSES ACROSS THE LOWER              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINENTAL           
POLAR AIRMASS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE LADEN SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS       
THE FOUR STATE REGION. WEDGED IN BETWEEN THE TWO LIES A SHARP COLD FRONT        
WHICH ACCORDING TO MY ANALYSIS WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF HOT AND PRX       
TO WEST OF DFW DOWN TO NEAR JCT. SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR KJCT         
WHICH HAS HELPED TO STALL THE FRONTS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR THE TIME BEING.     
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT NOT THE ACTUAL FRONT...WAS LOCATED ALONG THE      
I20 CORRIDOR FROM JUST SOUTH OF TYR...SHV AND MLU. THIS TROUGH HAS HELPED       
TO SWITCH OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BUT AS THE LATEST RUC MODEL         
INDICATES...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS NORTH OF THIS TROUGH ACROSS THE        
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.              
MODELS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR PROGRESSION OF STRONG SHORTWAVE          
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO EXTREME WEST/             
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AT THIS TIME. WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE IS WITH THEIR         
QPF FORECASTS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE STRANGEST OF ALL IS THE NGM          
WITH ITS LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA FOR FRIDAY YET NO QPF GENERATED     
ON 12Z FOUS OUTPUT. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE MODELS CONSISTENCY     
IN SLOWING THE SHORTWAVE DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN WHICH WOULD TEND TO LEAVE A       
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOMETHING ALL MODELS AGREE        
WITH. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP POPS HIGHEST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS      
EASTERN TEXAS AND TAPER POPS LOWER TOWARDS THE EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING      
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE GETS A KICK EASTWARD DUE TO          
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN       
GREAT BASIN. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE COULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH      
TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION BUT BELIEVE THIS WOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH         
ON SATURDAY TO LEAVE DAY PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS            
LATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE MRF VERY INCONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL           
DAYS. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13                                                    
SHV 53/59/47/60 3651  MLU 52/61/46/60 2552  TXK 48/56/45/58 4651                
TYR 52/57/47/62 7741  LFK 57/63/49/66 6741                                      
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1130 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                     
THE APX 88D SHOWS DIMINISHING RETURNS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH SOME LAKE       
EFFECT BANDING BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE           
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW 700/500 MB DPVA AFFECTING NORTHERN LOWER AND       
EAST UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH 06Z AS A 500 MB TROUGH/VORT LOBE SLIDES OVER        
UPPER MICHIGAN. FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE          
AREA AROUND 06Z. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND -14C TO -15C      
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED GENERALLY     
UNDER 60 PERCENT BETWEEN 1000/850 MB OVERNIGHT.                                 
THEREFORE DUE TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS WILL DIMINISH THE SNOWFALL OVER        
NORTHEAST LOWER TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. FOR TRAVERSE CITY TO MANISTEE AREA       
AND NORTHEAST LOWER FROM APN TO OSC...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED LIGHT      
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LAKE EFFECTS.                 
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
825 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
APX 88D SHOWING A BAND OF RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER THE STRAITS AND               
MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF 700/500 MB           
DPVA MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 01Z AND         
04Z THIS EVENING... IN ADVANCE OF A 500 MB TROUGH/VORT LOBE MOVING OVER         
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RUC ALSO SHOWS 1000/850 MB MOISTURE TO               
REMAIN AROUND 60 TO 80 PERCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AS         
IT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS PUSH THE LINGERING MOISTURE         
AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.                
THEREFORE WILL UPDATE NORTHERN LOWER FOR MOSTLY CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH         
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF M-72 AND FLURRIES SOUTH.              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
924 AM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS PLANNED FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. LATEST            
SATELLITE TRENDS... SOUNDING DATA... AND GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC                  
SUGGEST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA.            
SO... WILL BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER. THE                
SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID CLOUDS AROUND             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... SO WILL PROBABLY KEEP THOSE AREAS AS MOSTLY            
CLOUDY. MAY INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHWEST...                
WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTI-CYCLONIC... AND WILL BE ESSENTIALLY               
N-NE... SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND CONFINED MAINLY NEAR THE              
LAKE SHORE. THE LACK OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE CBL WILL WORK TO FURTHER            
REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...            
GIVEN THE EXISTING FLURRIES TO THE NORTH... AND THE QPF FORECAST                
FROM THE 00Z 6KM ETA... FEEL FLURRIES ARE WORTH MENTIONING.                     
TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY... AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES THERE.             
ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 1000 AM.                                                   
TRH                                                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
503 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
SFC ANLYS AT 0900 UTC SHWS CD FNT THRU FCST AREA. 0600 UTC INITIAL              
RUC CROS-SECT DATA SHWS TOP OF FNTL SLOPE ARND 850 HPA WITH WEAK                
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE JUST ON TOP OF FNTL BNDRY WHICH IS HELPING TO                
KEEP PCPN TOGETHER OVR SE PERIPHERY OF CWA. LATEST RUC KEEPS                    
MENTIONED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVR CNTL MO THRU 1800 UTC. ENVIRONMENT OVR            
THIS RGN STILL WRM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PCPN BUT FCST SNDG DATA STILL              
POINTING TWRDS COOLING OF LYR BY MIDDAY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL PCPN             
TDY IN THIS AREA AND WORDED FCST -RA MIXING WITH -SN AT TIMES.                  
FTHR TO NW AREA COVERING 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF MKC IRK LN SCT LGT             
PCPN INDICATED BY 88-D. SFC OBS REPORTING -RA ATTM BUT WITH                     
ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THINK THAT HEAVIER BURSTS OF PCPN THIS              
AM SHLD FALL AS -SN. KEEPING AND EYE ON DEFORMATION ZN OVR S CNTL               
KS. MODEL QPF DRAGS RGN OF PCPN ALG AND S OF MO RVR BUT MID                     
TROPOSPHERIC CNVGNC OF Q-VECTORS INDICATES RMNS OF THIS DEFORMATION             
ZN MAY TRACK FTHR N PSBLY THRU MCI/STJ AND MV INTO MUCH OF N CNTL               
MO. MODELS APPR TO BE PICKING UP ON WEAK PHASING BET NRN/SRN                    
BRANCHES AS MID/UPR TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FIELDS                   
INDICATE LIFT OVR SRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA THRU TDY. WITH THIS IN MIND             
AND THE FACT THAT BOTH NGM/ETA IN NO HURRY TO SWEEP 3-4 G/KG SPEC               
HUMIDITIES OUT OF CWA KEPT POPS IN FCST ALL DAY THUR. IN XTRM NW MO             
WHERE DRIER AIR ALREADY NOSING INTO RGN REMOVED POPS FOR TDY BUT                
KEPT CLDY. DUE TO XPTD SLO ADVANCEMENT OF DEFORMATION ZN WOULD NOT              
BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLDS HANG IN MOST OF TNGT. CLD CVR SHLD KEEP                
TEMPS IN NEIGHBORHOOD OF FWC/FAN GUIDANCE TDY/TNGT. THEREFORE STAYED            
WITH CRNT TEMPS TDY OPENED RANGE UPWARD FOR TNGT'S MINS.                        
DRY WX STILL LKS LIKE THE DEAL FOR ST PATTY'S DAY BUT LWR                       
TROPOSPHERIC MSTR RETURNING WITH SE FLW LATE FRI NITE AND SAT                   
COUPLED WITH FCST PROXIMITY OT RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF LIFTING JET                
DURING THE DAY SAT RE-INSERTED POPS FOR SAT. MADE LTL OR NO CHGS TO             
REST OF EFP.                                                                    
WILL HIT AM SPS HARD WITH CD TEMPS TNGT SINCE QUITE A BIT OF                    
VEGETATION HAS COME OUT IN RECENT WEEKS DUE TO WRM WX.                          
.EAX...NONE.                                                                    
BODNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1027 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                     
FCST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO ADDRESS SLIGHT MAX TEMP CHANGES. RUC              
UPDATES SHOWING FAIR AMOUNT OF LOWER LVL SFC CONVERGENCE AND                    
1000-700MB RH ALG A TROF SAGGING SWD THROUGH THE CWFA. VIS SAT                  
IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH THICKER MID LV               
CIGS ACRS THE SRN AND SWRN ZONES...WELL MODELLED BY RUC. CURRENT                
FCSTS INDICATE PARTLY SUNNY CONDS ACRS NRN ZONES...AND WITH SOME CU             
ALREADY EVIDENT IN PEMBINA CNTY...WILL EXPECT SCT-BKN CU FIELD LATER            
TDY. 12Z ETA INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL ON VORT CNTR IN SERN MAN...MVG             
JUST NORTH OF MN/ONT BDR THROUGH TDY. SO SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL INHIBIT            
TO MUCH BUILD UP. TEMPS DVL-GFK WARMING AHEAD OF MOS HEATING CURVE              
SO WILL BOOST FCST MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES IN NRN AND NWRN ZONES.                 
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
145 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO RACE SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN TEXAS. WX                
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS BEEN LIKE STEPPING THROUGH A DOOR INTO WINTER.             
11Z ABI 61F/47DWPT 19009KT...18Z 39F/37DWPT 2.5SM-RA 36019G28KT.                
AT 18Z FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ADM-NW OF MWL-SJT...THE EASTERN             
END OF THE LINE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS N            
TX. EXPECT THE WESTERN END OF THE LINE TO CONTINUE SOUTH. WARM                  
SECTOR OF SFC LOW NE OF JCT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                          
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EAST OF LOW SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR                  
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SE. RUC AND GOES SOUNDERS                      
INDICATING LI IN THIS SECTOR -7 TO -10 ATTM. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED              
TO SEE A SVR WATCH SHORTLY. MODELS INDICATE THE BEST LIFT TO SWEEP              
ACROSS SETX TONIGHT AS UPPER VORT LOBE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW.                  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO SETX TONIGHT (PW INCREASE             
TO 1.1-1.2"). 500MB TEMPS A CHILLY -16 TO -18 ACROSS SETX AT 06Z.               
EXPECTING A LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITH HAIL BEING A                
SERIOUS THREAT. MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY BUT WINDSPEEDS ARE ONLY               
RUNNING 10-40 KNOTS PER ETA...AVN HAS A STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND                 
FIELD. WOULD CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. LL WINDS            
ARE STRONGLY VEERING BUT ARE WEAK - LOWERING THE THREAT OF                      
TORNADOES. FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COAST AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AS YOU               
CAN GUESS FROM DISC SO FAR WILL MENTION SVR OVER THE CWA FOR                    
TONIGHT. NEXT ISSUE IS THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.                   
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS SETX FRIDAY AS 850 WINDS PROGGED TO                  
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH 18Z THEN BECOMING SW. CLOUD COVER WILL                 
REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AS SECOND VORT LOBE IN THE WINGS TO MOVE            
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THREAT OF RAIN WITH ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA               
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY MORNING.                
850 FRONT NEARS THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING BUT CAA WILL DROPPED OFF.            
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.                   
FOR MARINE...WILL LOWER THE WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.  LATEST                   
MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.                  
.KHGX...NONE                                                                    
45/40                                                                           
PRELIMS                                                                         
CLL RE 052/059 046/065 046 773                                                  
IAH RE 054/063 050/065 049 663                                                  
GLS RE 063/065 057/067 059 554                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1125 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                     
WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON THE UPDATE. RADAR AND SATELLITE        
TRENDS INDICATE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION          
WAS ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE             
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. 15Z RUC/12 ETA SHOWED BEST WARM AIR            
ADVECTION AT 85H OCCURRING FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN             
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEAST           
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN RAIN TO SLEET            
TO SNOW AS THE 85H FREEZING LINE SLOWLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND               
SLOW TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT ISSUE A WINTER               
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA ATTM.                                            
ELSEWHERE...85H-50H LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES INTO                  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE 85H WARM AIR                
ADVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER                   
LOW SOUTHEAST OF ALBUQUERQUE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE PERMIAN              
BASIN AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AREA BY                
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ETA WHICH INDICATED            
50H-30H LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS              
AREA. RADAR SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS AS WELL AS WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE              
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOVE EAST.                             
THE WIND SPEEDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND WILL MAKE                 
CORRESPONDING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN               
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE A CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON FROM CURRENT                    
READINGS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR ALL SOUTH PLAINS ZONES                
FOR THIS EVENING AND TAPER THEM FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.                         
FRIONA/TULIA    034/022/054/034 2-0                                             
CHILDRESS       035/026/052/035 +31                                             
BROWNFIELD      039/026/057/038 310                                             
LUBBOCK         036/025/056/036 310                                             
ASPERMONT       038/030/055/040 531                                             
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
215 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT S/W ACROSS N CNTRL TX ASSOC WITH                 
STRONG 28 VORT WHICH IS KICKING OFF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS E                 
TX. RUC SHOWS S/W THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY                   
MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT                   
AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WAVE THOUGH NGM IS BRINGING STRONGER SYS A                  
BIT FURTHER S THAN THE ETA...AND ETA HAS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PROGD               
WITH THE NEXT SYS AND AVN THE MOST. NGM POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE LOOK            
TOO LOW SAT CONSIDERING UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES TRACKING OFF THE NE CST WILL PULL THE FRONT               
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY                    
FLOW INCREASES BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LYR WINDS UP TO AROUND              
20 KNOTS AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE. WILL SEE                
SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG                 
NE-E SFC-LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SSW MOIST FLOW AT 850 MB AHEAD OF NEXT             
S/W.                                                                            
FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOSITURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EARLY THIS A.M.                  
FOLLOWED BY SKIES BECMG PTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR             
FILTERS INTO THE AREA.                                                          
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SRN ZONES WITH DEVELOPING            
LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN.                                                          
SAT...WILL BUMP UP NGM POPS UP A BIT ON SAT WITH UPPER S/W MOVING               
IN AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA. MAY LIMIT TSTM CHCS TO FL ZONES BUT WILL             
WAIT ON SWODY2 FOR FINAL CALL ON THAT ONE...AS NGM/ETA SFC LIS RISE             
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GA ZONES WITH THE "WEDGE" DEVELOPING ALONG              
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.                                              
BOTH NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND WILL ACCEPT.                                   
MARINE: MODELS FCST WINDS TO DROP OFF TODAY BUT CURRENT BUOY WINDS              
BORDERING ON SMALL CRAFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 3 AND 4 AM BUOY            
OBS. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND                  
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.                                   
EXTENDED: AVN FORECASTING WET SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS                   
LIKE A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHORTER RANGE MODELS. I KNOW               
ITS STILL FAR OFF...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG (SVR?)                
TSTMS SUNDAY IF LATEST AVN FCST PANS OUT. WILL WAIT ON NEW MRF FOR              
UPDTS TO MON AND TUE...IF ANY.                                                  
PRELIM TEMPS & POPS...                                                          
TLH  79 53 71 52  -145                                                          
PFN  75 56 71 54  -156                                                          
DHN  74 51 66 50  -156                                                          
ABY  75 50 64 49  -156                                                          
VLD  80 52 69 50  -145                                                          
TLH...                                                                          
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
VOLKMER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
315 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA               
THROUGH EASTERN WV... JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. KLWX INDICATING A            
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MD.. WITH MORE                   
SHOWERS ORGANIZING ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BACK EDGE OF               
SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AT TIME.. PER KFCX AND              
KRLX RADARS.                                                                    
00Z ETA AND NGM HAD FRONT TIMED WELL AT 06Z... AND 06Z RUC ALSO                 
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM.  ALL OF THE MODELS                 
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z AND INDICATE AN ABRUPT              
END TO THE PRECIP SHORTLY AFTER.  VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW                    
DEVELOPING AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.. AND ETA/NGM BOTH INDICATE STRONG             
DRYING AT ALL LEVELS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO PASS            
OVERHEAD AROUND MID DAY... BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE DRY.                           
CLEARING LINE ON IR/FOG LOOPS RUNS FROM SW ONTARIO THROUGH NW OHIO              
AND CENTRAL INDIANA.... MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. APPROACH OF DRIER              
AIR AND STRENGTHENING OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME                  
SUNSHINE OVER THE AREA BY MID MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED                     
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH MOVES JUST TO            
THE NORTH.                                                                      
WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY.. AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 25-30 KT             
WINDS THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE              
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH HIGH WORKING INTO AREA.                               
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S... WHILE CURRENT                   
READINGS OVER OUR CWA ARE STILL IN THE 50S. WILL MENTION AN EARLY AM            
HIGH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 08Z READINGS.. BUT EXPECT A HEALTHY DROP            
IN TEMPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WITH                
SOME SUN... TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OUT THIS AFTERNOON. VERY COLD AND DRY            
AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT... WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO DROP TO                
NEAR 10 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP A                
BIT... BUT STILL PLAN TO UNDERCUT FWC TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.             
WILL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO BOTH TEMPS AND PRECIP IN THE                     
EXTENDED. AVN AND YESTERDAY'S MRF BOTH INDICATE A MOIST SE FLOW AND             
GOOD WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL                  
MENTION INCREASING CLOUDS SAT NIGHT... AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF                
RAIN SUN. WILL ALSO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY AS              
SYSTEM OVER SE US MOVES CLOSER AND WE REMAIN IN A WARM                          
ADVECTION/UPSLOPE PATTERN. HAVE RAISED TEMPS IN LATER PERIODS.. IN              
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MRF AND NCEP GUIDANCE.                                    
.LWX...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.                  
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000                                                     
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WRN                 
ZONES...ALTHOUGH LATEST RUC IS DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OR 06Z                  
ETA...SATELLITE IMAGERY WOULD INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS INTO             
W CENTRAL.  FORECAST ALSO HAS MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATES BASED ON                
CLOUDS AND LATEST RUC MODEL.                                                    
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1015 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                     
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA COMBINED WITH RUC FORECAST INDICATE THERE MAY            
BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DURING             
THE TRANSISTION FROM LIGHT RAIN TO SNOW FLURRIES. LOW TEMPERATURES              
KEPT THE SAME. REDUCED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FLURRIES            
FOR FRIDAY. REST UNCHANGED. ...GIORDANO                                         
.PBZ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
900 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
THE AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE EAST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING             
AREA IS DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD             
END BEFORE 1000 PM. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE RUC/S FORECAST OF              
THE H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND                
09Z. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.               
PLAN TO REMOVE SEVERE TSTM WATCH HEADLINE IN THE E PART AND CONFINE             
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BEFORE 300 AM.                                             
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
RJL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
844 PM EST THU MAR 16 2000                                                      
BREAK IN DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE E AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                
MOVES IN FROM THE W BY LATE EVENING. EXPECT SCT TSTMS WITH THIS NEXT            
SURGE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH FOR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS BUT               
MESO-ETA AND RUC SHOW AREA OF PVA THAT SHOULD BE THRU CWA BY 09Z WITH           
MOST OF CWA DRYING AND COOLING FRI. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER N MTNS            
FRI. CURRENT ZONES LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR...IF                
ANY...ADJUSTMENTS.                                                              
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                     
LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS HI PRES OVR SRN ONTARIO WITH RDG AXIS                    
STRETCHING ACRS CWA. VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES RESIDUAL SCT LK SC IN               
NELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI FM MQT EWD WITH APX SDNG SHOWING HIER              
LLVL MSTR BLO INVRN HGT AT H825. GRB SDNG A BIT DRIER IN LLVLS. SFC             
HI UNDER EXPANSIVE UPR RDG ACRS SCNTRL CAN E OF PAC SHRTWV MOVG THRU            
SW CAN. HUGE 12HR H3-5 HGT RISES WITHIN RDG AXIS INDICATE THIS SYS              
BLDG WITH CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/WAD AS ARCTIC AIR ACRS ERN CAN                
EVACUATING EWD IN STRG SLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC-H85 RDG AXIS.               
CONSIDERABLE HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH OVRRNG HAS MOVD AS FAR E AS H5              
RDG AXIS IN NCNTRL MN...BUT LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLD HAS TENDED TO              
DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN RDG.                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. LATEST               
RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS RDG AXIS MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON CWA TDAY. AS UPR            
RDG SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD BY THIS AFTN INTO CWA...XPCT HI CLD TO GRDLY              
OVRSPRD CWA W-E BUT NOT TO REACH ERN ZNS UNTIL LATE. WITH SFC RDG IN            
PLACE MOST OF DAY...RUC SHOWS SFC-H85 WAD AFFECTING ONLY WRN ZNS                
AFTR 21Z. BUT STRG SUBSIDENCE FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS 2-3C. THIS                
SUBSIDENCE SHUD ALSO DSPT ANY LINGERING LK CLD...BUT XPCT SOME                  
DIURNAL CU OVR ECNTRL ZNS INTO AFTN GIVEN RATHER MOIST LLVL APX SDNG.           
12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS LTL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT AND DRY AIR             
WITHIN LGT ACYC FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NO LOW CLD OVR WRN CWA             
AFTR ANY LINGERING LK SC DSPTS THERE.                                           
NEEDED TO ADD ABOUT 12C ON TO H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM YDAY FOR HI TEMP.              
SINCE RUC SHOWING SUBSIDENCE WRMG H85 TEMPS TO ARND -12C TDAY...                
XPCT MAX TO REACH LO 30S MOST ZNS. IWD WL BE A BIT WARMER WITH                  
DOWNSLOPE SELY FLOW.                                                            
06Z MESOETA PERSISTS IN FCSTG SSWLY 45-50KT H85 WNDS INTO LK SUP                
OVRNGT...SO HAVE KEPT GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP.                                     
.MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP.                                                        
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
600 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
UPDATE IS IN ORDER WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BREAKING OVR KEWEENAW AND            
INVADING MOST OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ATTM. IR SAT AND METARS SHOW LOW            
CLOUDS HANGING ON OVR ERN UPR MI NOW ADVANCING INTO SCHOOLCRAFT                 
COUNTY. BELIEVE LK CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THERMAL TROF EVADES            
WHICH IS 18Z PER RUC. THEREFORE WL ADD MORNING CLOUD WORDING.                   
MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC HIGH TO              
NORTH HAS CALMED WINDS WHICH LIMITS ANY FLOW OVR LK TO HELP SUSTAIN             
CLOUDS. IN ADDITION EARLIER QVECTOR FORCING IS OFF TO EAST.                     
THUS...SUN FADING BEHIND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON NOW WL BE THE STORY.             
.MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
940 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY              
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS FROM CAE EASTWARD WERE IN THE 50S AT 13Z AND             
APPROACHING THE 40S OVER EXTREME NW SC. 12Z SOUNDINGS EVEN OVER CHS             
AND GSO SHOW W TO NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS TO 30              
KTS AT CHS BLO 900 MB. THE LATEST RUC PUSHES FRONTAL TROUGH THRU THE            
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW LAKE                 
WINDS ADVSY CRITERIA...ALTHO WILL PUT NW 15-20 AND GUSTY. PATCHY SC             
CLOUDS OVER THE CWA SHOULD NOT PREVENT PRETTY GOOD DAYTIME HEATING              
TO THE LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. 850 CAA KICKS IN BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 40S LOOK GOOD FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT.                 
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BLP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1042 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                     
UPDATED ZONE FCSTS MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS CNTL               
AND N CNTL SD. 16Z MSAS ANALYIS SHOWS TIGHT GRADIENT...ABOUT 16                 
MB...ACROSS CWA. WITH THE GRADIENT SHIFTING EAST...EXPECT THE WINDS             
TO BEGIN DIMINISHING CNTL AND N CNTL BY AROUND NOON. WIND ADVISORY              
CONTINUES FOR MCPHERSON-EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE AND EAST THROUGH            
TODAY. WINDS NOW PICKING UP ACROSS THE EAST...WITH WINDS GUSTING TO             
35 KTS AT ABR...AND EXPECT AREAS EAST TO FOLLOW SUIT BY EARLY AFTN. RUC         
AND ETA 925 WINDS 35-40 KTS...AND WITH SUN OVER E 1/2 OF CWA...THESE            
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN IN LINE WITH               
LATEST ROUND OF FLP AND NEW FWC GUIDANCE. WITH CLOUD COVER ADVANCING            
FROM THE WEST...AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION 850 AND 925                  
MB...THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH.                     
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM MCPHERSON-EDMUNDS TO              
       HAND COUNTY LINE...AND EAST THROUGH W CNTL MN THROUGH TODAY.             
LORENS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
940 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTG ACROSS THE ERN HALF              
OF THE CWA THRU 21Z..SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THRU THE              
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.   SFC GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND              
VAD WNDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE IN THE LOWER COUPLE THOUSAND FEET SO              
WILL LOWER WINDS A CAT AND DROP THE CAUTION FOR LAKES.  LOW CLOUDS              
TRYING TO CREEP BACK NWWD OVER THE WRN CWA AND MAY HAVE TO CHANGE               
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS               
THEY ADVANCE.   APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF FROM THE NW SHOULD HELP               
KICK OUT THE UPR LOW OVER N TX/OK..BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL HAVE               
A DIFFICULT TIME EVER LEAVING AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST TIME                   
HEIGHT VIEW OFF THE ETA.                                                        
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
01/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
920 AM MST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND              
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DRY...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE           
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...PRODUCING           
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND MOST              
OTHER PLACES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL            
LOW WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING            
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO RAINFALL IS           
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA OR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUED DRY AT 12Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT RH INCREASES BTWN 20K           
AND 30K...MNLY ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS DUE TO TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO           
OUR NW AT 12Z.  RUC AND ETA SIMILAR ON INITIAL HEIGHTS AND BOTH SHOW            
MEAGER RH ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING. NGM BEST RH AT 700MB LATE TODAY               
REMAINS ALONG A GLOBE-DOUGLAS LN AND DCREASES BY MDNIGHT.                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS SFC WINDS. 12Z DATA             
IS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN GRADIENT...BUT ONLY FOR NRN PORTIONS            
OF AZ AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT AFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MAY SEE SOME               
GUSTS ALONG THE RIVER AND WESTWARD...BLH ALREADY AT 15KTS. WINDS TO             
KEEP BLOWING TONIGHT...BUT A QUICK COMPARISON BTWN OLD AND NEW 850              
WINDS FOR 12Z SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS FOR LOWER                   
COLORADO RVR AREA...WITH "CORE" STILL REMAINING BTWN BLYTHE AND                 
THERMAL FOR 12Z SATURDAY.  MOS SFC SPEEDS ALSO BACKING OFF A BIT FOR            
YUMA AND PHX.                                                                   
ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE ON 500MB HGTS THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BY           
SUNDAY MRNG NGM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA.           
MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM EDGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.           
FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LVL RH FOR EARLY NEXT WK.  NO UPDATES.                  
SIPPLE                                                                          
N                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   az