SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
250 PM MST TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A VERY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT           
TWO OR THREE DAYS WITH LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA            
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE FLOW               
ALOFT RESULTING FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL HELP TO FEED MOISTURE               
FROM THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY INTO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA           
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL FALL             
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF MORE               
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT               
WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO MOST           
OF THE REGION BY THEN.                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOISTURE FROM HILARY CONTINUING TO FLOW INTO CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.               
DENSE CLOUD SHIELD SERVING TO CUT OFF HEATING NEEDED FOR CONVECTION             
TODAY OVER EVERYWHERE BUT JOSHUA TREE NP WHERE SOME DECENT STORMS               
FIRED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS...ESPECIALLY NGM/ETA...BRINGING A DECENT           
VORT TROF INTO FAR WRN AZ AND SE CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT...WHEREAS             
LATEST RUC GIVING NVA. THUS...NO REALLY DISCERNIBLE DYNAMICAL SOURCE            
IN THE OFFING TO ACT ON THE MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO AREA THROUGH                
TONIGHT AND INTO WED. SO...MOST LIKELY RUN-OF-THE-MILL SHOWERS ON TAP           
FOR MUCH OF CWFA NEXT 24 HOURS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF                 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FAR W PORTION...ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF            
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...JUST IN CASE ETA/NGM ARE CORRECT WITH PVA TONIGHT.           
BY WED NIGHT...WILL CALL FOR DECREASING SHOWERS WITH A MORE DIURNAL             
FLAVOR TO ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AS RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL              
PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE AVAILABLE TO ACT ON LEFT-OVER MOISTURE BY            
THEN...SO THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD BE GREATEST ON DAY 2. ALSO...WILL           
HEAT THINGS UP A BIT ON THURSDAY DUE TO ADDED INSOLATION. SHOULD ALSO           
BE SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE FOR CHANCE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY.                
BECOMING LESS AND LESS CONVINCED ABOUT DRYING OVER THE WEEKEND...               
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. NEW AVN FURTHER E WITH TROF OVER ERN PAC AND               
RIDGE OVER SW US. THIS WOULD GIVE STATE A WEAKER FLOW PATTERN AND               
LEAVE SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE RE-INTRODUCE THREAT OF             
STORMS HIGHER TERRAIN E OF PHX FOR SATURDAY AND THEN GO DRY BY                  
SUNDAY.    ESTLE                                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 212131  az                                      

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A HIGH             
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO                 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM                
HILARY WILL SPREAD INTO ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY              
INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE               
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND                 
FRIDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY..                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NO NEW MODEL DATA YET THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR 15Z RUC...DUE TO NCEP           
COMPUTER WOES. RUC APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY INITIALIZED...AND SEEMS             
LIKE IT SHOULD BE VERIFYING WELL THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACCORDING TO                
SATELLITE TRENDS. DEEPEST MOISTURE HEADED NEXT FEW HOURS INTO FAR SW            
AZ/SE CA ZONES...AND KYUX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING UP INTO THIS             
AREA...NOTHING HEAVY. BLOWOUT FROM STORMS S OF THE BORDER DID KICK UP           
SOME PRETTY DECENT SE WINDS EARLIER AT IPL/EL CENTRO. ANYWAY...NOT              
LOOKING FOR ANYTHING REAL HEAVY TODAY WRN CWFA...ALTHOUGH RUC DOES              
MOVE A WEAK 500MB VORT MAX INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. YUM              
12Z SOUNDING DID HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE...SO A THUNDERSTORM OR              
TWO NOT OUT OF REALM OF POSSIBILITY...BUT BELIEVE THAT THICK CLOUD              
COVER WILL GREATLY REDUCE THREAT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/             
EVENING. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...RUC THEN MOVES SOME RATHER DEEP                 
MOISTURE NEWD INTO CNTRL/ERN CWFA...SO STILL LOOKING FOR SCATTERED              
SHOWERS MOST AREAS BY THEN. MAY BE HITTING SOME POPS A BIT HARD TODAY           
CNTRL AND E...BUT WILL NOT UPDATE JUST TO CUT NUMBERS 10 PCNT. FOR              
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOISTURE TO STILL BE AROUND SO THREAT OF SHOWERS             
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS ON TARGET. DONT SEE ANY                
REASON TO UPDATE ANY FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.   ESTLE                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 211615  az                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
855 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
NEW MODEL DATA NOT AVAILABLE TO ANY LARGE EXTENT BUT OBVIOUS                    
FORECAST CONCERN IS THAT OF MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE                      
HILARY AND ITS ADVECTION OVER CWFA WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS. RECENT                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSH                         
NORTHWESTWARD AND CURRENT TIMING OF FORECASTS FOR THAT MOISTURE TO              
SPREAD OVER CWFA BY TONIGHT LOOKS OKAY. THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS                 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR AREA.                                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT WILL MODIFY MAX             
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS ON DAY 2..WED..              
FOR CA ZONES 20/21 S.J.VALLEY AND CA ZONE 25 KERN DESERTS. WHILE NOT            
CHANGING SKY DESCRIPTIONS AT THIS TIME..SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WOULD            
SUPPRESS WIDE-SCALE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BUT LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE            
PREVALENT INSTEAD ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RUC MODEL INDICATES SGNFCNT             
MOISTURE ARRIVING C.CALIF BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN THE              
FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY.                                          
REITERATE PREVIOUS CONCERN OF MONITORING SITUATION FOR FLASH FLOOD              
POTENTIAL .. ESPECIALLY IN KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS WITH SUCH A               
PATTERN. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TO CAUSE                
PROBLEMS .. SO AGAIN THE AMOUNT OF STRONG CONVECTION IS THE KEY FOR             
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR EXTENDED...CONT PRECIP THREAT THURS AS              
MOISTUR LINGERS...BUT FRIDAY...DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS AS RIDGE NOSES            
IN OVER NRN CA AND PUSHES MOISTURE EAST. FRI AND SAT COULD GET QUITE            
WARM WITH MRF INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER 5910 METERS.                       
FAT 013 BFL -23 YNP 236                                                         
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
FAT UE 091/067 087/068 092 82013                                                
BFL UE 090/068 085/068 091 82-23                                                
YNP BW 085/060 077/062 079 82236                                                
GUDGEL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KMTR 211602  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
900 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
CONVECTION OVER GA/AL HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. IR2               
AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE SHOW LOW CLOUDS MOVING S OVER AL TOWARD FL            
BIG BEND. THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BENEATH DEEP LAYER                 
SUBSIDENCE/Q-DIVERGENCE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC PROGS. DRY               
ADVECTION INTO NW CWA ALSO NOTED PER METARS. HAVE THEREFORE YANKED              
POPS ALL AREAS AND GONE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND LOWERED MINIMA FOR NRN              
ZONES. BASED ON CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RUC PROGS...WILL LOWER WINDS              
OVER GULF SLIGHTLY AND REMOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                             
WORK ZONES ALREADY OUT. WORK CWF OUT BEFORE 0130Z. INPUT/FEEDBACK               
ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                                 
TJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 220103  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
817 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
AT 7 PM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED               
THAT THE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA             
WAS CONTINUING TO DECREASE BUT THE RUC SHOWED A FAIRLY STRONG AREA              
OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A 500 MB TROUGH               
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AROUND 2           
OR 3 O'CLOCK WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE                     
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES                 
THROUGH. SO WILL UPDATE THE ZONE PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POPS TO 40             
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...30 ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA            
AND KEEP 20 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO MENTION THE           
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.                                                   
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 220013  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
755 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
AFTER CHECKING OVER RECENT AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND COORDINATING             
WITH NHC...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE UPPER            
KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. MLRF1 IS DOWN TO 23 KNOTS SUSTAINED...AND             
FWYF1 IS DOWN TO 17 KNOTS SUSTAINED.                                            
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF KEYS WATERS...NOT                     
NECESSARILY FOR THE WIND...BUT DEFINITELY THE SEAS. WILL ALSO CHANGE            
WIND DIRECTION TO MORE NORTHWEST AS PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS WHICH               
SHOW WINDS VEERING...AND EVENING SOUNDING...VAD WIND PROFILE AND 21Z            
RUC SUPPORT THIS THINKING AS WELL.                                              
ONE LAST RAINBAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT THIS TIME            
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS UPSTREAM. WILL LOWER POPS IN THE                        
FORECAST...CHANGE SKY COVER TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AND RAISE                 
MINIMUM TEMPS WITH LESS THREAT OF RAIN.                                         
HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WITH            
TIDES RUNNING AROUND 1 TO 1.24 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOW THAT                 
WINDS ARE SHIFTING AND DECREASING THE THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.                
WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH UPON THIS IN AN UPDATED SPS.                             
.EYW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR FLORIDA KEYS WATERS.                            
MOHLIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 212353  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
WHILE HARVEY MOVES EAST ACROSS FLORIDA...OUR FOCUS TURNS TO AN                  
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT...MORE TYPICAL OF LATE OCTOBER THAN              
SEPTEMBER. AT 3 AM...COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI             
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVERLAYED WITH RUC                    
ANALYZED WINDS...VORTICITY AND PROFILER PLOTS SHOW LEAD VORT MAX                
MOVING INTO CAROLINAS...SECONDARY VORT MAX OVER S ARKANSAS...A LARGE            
100 KT PLUS 250 MB JET FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO S ARKANSAS AND             
NW MISSISSIPPI...AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE               
GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS.                 
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS               
WELL NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MULITLAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN AS               
FAR NORTH AS NW ARKANSAS AND SE MISSOURI WITH SOME ELEVATED                     
CONVECTION/LIGHTNING NOTED OVER S ARKANSAS.                                     
THE NGM/ETA SOLUTIONS SEEM BEST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION FOR THIS              
FORECAST WITH THE AVN APPEARING TOO WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE            
GRADIENT AND WIND IN LATER PERIODS. BRIDGING OF VERY COOL AND DRY               
SURFACE HIGH PRES SHOULD CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO JUMP SE TO THE                 
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON. UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET...500 MB PVA...AND LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY                
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY POST-                 
FRONTAL. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY              
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TENDING TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO SW                 
MISSISSIPPI...BUT DYNAMICS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL                  
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION               
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID             
80S.                                                                            
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SUBSIDENCE AND ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AND                
COOL AIR WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AND USHER IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S            
WITH EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTH. THIS COOL DRY AIR PASSING OVER THE              
WARM LAKE AND COASTAL WATERS WILL CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO PICK UP TO AT            
LEAST 20 KT AND GUSTY OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AND 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTY            
OVER THE SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BY TONIGHT.                
OVER LAND...VERY REFRESHING CLEAR COOL NIGHTS AND MILD SUNNY DAYS               
WILL BE ON TAP TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS MODERATING             
BACK TO THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE STRONG WINDS                
ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TONIGHT...THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MORE             
THAN 5 DEGREES TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE.                   
LIGHTER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A 10 DEGREE                 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE. COOL NUMBERS FOLLOW...                
MCB 82/55/76/48 2000  BTR 84/57/77/52 2000                                      
MSY 86/62/78/60 2100  BIX 86/60/79/55 2000                                      
.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AQQ TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
22                                                                              
 la                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
855 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
MAIN SW STILL TO W. CAN SEE MORE RAIN DEVELOPING TO S OF ERN PART FA            
AND THIS IS ADVECTING N. THIS SEEMS TO BE ALONG A GOOD UPPER                    
DIVERGENCE AREA WHICH PULLS THROUGH THE ERN PART FA. TIMING MAIN                
TROF TO W PUSHES IT THRU ERN PART ARND 09Z AND THERE IS A LINE OF               
SHWERS TO THE W WITH THAT TROF. SO BELIEVE IT WL BE ALMOST MRNG TO              
PRECIP ENDS IN THE E. OVER THE W WHERE ONLY A FEW SCATTERED SHWERS              
LINGER WL END PRECIP ARND MIDN.                                                 
ON TEMPS CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AS CAA IS PUSHING TEMPS WELL DOWN              
TO THE LOW 50S AND BELIEVE SOME 40S NW LOOK GOOD.                               
NOT SURE HOW MUCH CLDS WL HAVE ON WED BUT FOR NOW WL NOT MAKE NAY               
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
HOISTED SCA ON BAY AS COLD AIR PUSH DOWN THE BAY WL KEEP WINDS UP TO            
SCA CRITERIA INTO WED. RUC SHOWS 20 TO 25 KTS THRU THE NGT AND 18Z              
ETA CONTINUES FAIRLY STRG WINDS INTO WED.                                       
.LWX...SCA BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC.                                               
JAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 211846  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1022 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                     
...WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS WITH FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY ALL GRR                 
CWA...                                                                          
LATEST LOOK AT RUC AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS ETA TO QUICK IN                 
BRINGING 750 TO 600 MB RH INTO AREA.  MOST OF LYRD MID CLDS STAYING             
N OF STRAIGHT AND RUC INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE                     
OVERNIGHT.  THESE CLDS ASSOC WITH WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT WAVE THAT               
HAS MOST OF DYNAMICS IN CANADA.  THUS SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN              
CONTROL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL LET LAND BREEZE              
SET UP... WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC DWPTS TO STAY NEAR 32F... AND ALLOW              
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  ONLY LOCATIONS VERY CLOSE TO LAKE                
MICHIGAN... LIKE WITHIN A MILE OR TWO SHOULD SEE TEMPS IN MID 30S BY            
MORNING. MANY LOW LYING AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 30... LIKE GRANT             
AND LANSING ASOS... AND BIG RAPIDS.                                             
.GRR...FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY ALL GRR CWA...INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 220212  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1010 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                     
LATEST IR STLT LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES                
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A MID DECK PUSHING OVER               
EASTERN UPPER. AREA OF CLOUDS IN EAST UPPER IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK                
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM A LOW OVER                     
HUDSON BAY. RUC SHOWING 700/500 MB MOISTURE TO REMAIN BETWEEN 60                
AND 70 PERCENT OVER THE STRAITS AND EAST UPPER OVERNIGHT.  THIS                 
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP DIMINISH THE THREAT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS                     
DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 30S FOR EAST UPPER.                               
FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL              
REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH SURFACE WINDS                        
GENERALLY VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. SURFACE DEW PTS ACROSS                 
NORTHERN LOWER CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES                     
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE                 
AND LOWER 30S STILL LOOKS GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND                        
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE STRAITS.             
WILL ADD SOME MENTION OF FROST TO EAST UPPER WITH LOWS FORECASTED               
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN SPOTS.                                                   
.APX...FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016>036-041-042.                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 220154  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
950 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
...NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE CONCERNS...                                            
UPR MI REMAINS IN FAST NW UPR FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE OVER W NOAM AND                
DIGGING LONGWV TROF OVR E NOAM. 00Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT             
EXTENDING FROM LO PRES IN HUDSON'S BAY SW INTO SW ONTARIO AND                   
EXTREME S MANTIOBA. ASOS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF FRONT WITH DEWPTS 45-50F. HOWEVER...CANADIAN            
SFC OBS/IR IMAGERY INDICATING ONLY FEW MID/HI CLOUDS IN VCNTY OF                
FRONT...PROBABLY ASSOC WITH DIFF PVA PER 21Z RUC ANALYSIS OF 500 MB             
SHORTWV OVR LK WINNIPEG. THIS FEATURE IS FCST TO CONTINUE SE INTO W LK          
SUPERIOR BY 12Z WITH 850-700MB CONV FIELD OVERSPREADING CWA                     
TONIGHT...WITH COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN W LK SUPERIOR BY 12Z AS WELL.             
AS IT STANDS PARTLY CLOUDY LKS GOOD FOR ALL ZONES WITH ADDITIONAL HI            
CLOUDS ARRIVING. MIN TEMPS LK ON TRACK TOO...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER               
DEWPTS ADVECTING INTO W CWA FROM NW WI...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM                  
FALLING INTO THE 30'S OVR FROST PRONE WI BORDER COUNTIES. E COUNTIES            
COOLEST WITH MIN TEMPS NR LOW END OF GOING RANGE.                               
WILL NOT UPDATE GOING PACKAGE.                                                  
COORD WITH APX                                                                  
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 220154  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                     
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TDY IS INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND TEMPS           
13Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS SAT SHOW 1004MB SFC LOW OVR NERN                  
MANITOBA MVG EAST AND DRAGGING A SFC WM FRNT FM NRN ONTARIO SWRD                
INTO MN ARROWHEAD REGION. AHEAD OF FRNT IN SERN ONTARIO TEMPS ARE IN            
THE UPPER 30S WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WHILE                 
BEHIND BOUNDARY IN SRN MANITOBA AND NRN MN TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND             
LOWER 50S WITH DWPTS IN THE THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.                         
WM FRNT IS PRODUCING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT FM NERN        
ONTARIO BACK INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR. BEHIND THE FRNT...PRIMARILY IN               
MANITOBA...LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS (BKN090 AT CYQK AND BKN040 AT CYRL)             
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRNT...ALTHOUGH A SHRA WAS REPORTED NW OF LK            
WINNEPEG BUT IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL SFC LOW.                              
700MB-500MB RH FIELDS ON BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC PICK UP ON THE                
BAND OF CLOUDS WELL AND BOTH BRING MOISTURE STRIPE THROUGH AREA BY              
21Z...CURRENT FCST HAS PARTLY SUNNY OR INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTN              
AND THAT LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. TEMPS ARE LOOKING TO BE COOLER THAN               
BOTH FLP AND FWC NUMS AS THEY ARE FCST TO TOP OUT FROM 50 TO                    
55...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT SFC OBS AND 850MB TEMPS FM FCST                     
SOUNDINGS PER RUC AT 21Z THAT LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT.                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 211439  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
NOT MUCH TO LOOK AT TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OFF TO THE SOUTH HAS                 
ALLOWED LOW LEVEL WARMING TO TAKE PLACE AN THIS IS FORECAST TO                  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BY 21Z RUC. LOOKING AT MAX TEMPS AND TAKING                  
AROUND A 20 DEGREE DROP SUGGESTS LOWS CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST. 24             
HOUR CHANGE TRACE ON 00Z KMPX SOUNDING AND THIS MORNINGS LOW                    
SUGGESTS A LOW IN LOW TO MID 40S FOR MSP AREA. WEAK SHORT WAVE IN NW            
FLOW COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS TO WI AND THIS COVERED AS WELL. MAY                
HOWEVER..BUMP ON MAXES IN WEST ON WED BASED ON TODAYS HIGHS IN                  
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 220029  mn                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
910 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION WILL                
ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY...AND            
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. COMBINED WITH A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...             
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL UPSWING IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.                                                      
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE BREAKING                 
THROUGH THE REMNANT WESTERLIES LYING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. BUT             
AS JETLET FINALLY PULLS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS SHOULD               
FINALLY ALLOW HEIGHTS TO RISE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEEPEN THROUGH              
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEW RUC MORE OR LESS AGREES               
WITH THE PREVIOUS ETA MODEL IN THIS REGARD...AS WELL AS SHOWING THE             
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA               
DESERTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE RUC CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION              
PROGS SHOW ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY AS              
MID SHIFT SURMISED...AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY.             
AN INTERESTING PLAYER BY LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE OLD             
OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA PERMA-LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY WOBBLING A BIT MORE            
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAS PROGGED BY LAST NIGHTS ETA TO BRING A 250MB            
JET BACK ONTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.              
THIS LIFT WOULD FAVOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY            
LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DESERTS AND POSSIBLY ALONG             
THE NEVADA BORDER BY LATER TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN             
NEVADA WEDNESDAY.  PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NOT TERRIBLY           
IMPRESSIVE YET UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.  WE DO NOT PLAN             
TO MAKE ANY CHANGES THIS MORNING AS ABOVE SCENARIO FITS IN WITH GOING           
FORECAST...BUT THEN WE HAVE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MODEL RUNS DUE TO THE              
COMMS PROBLEMS AT NCEP. FOR THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL FOCUS MORE ON                
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND POSSIBLE STORM MOTION WITH                
CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER EVENT WILL WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR                
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER PROBLEM OF COURSE WILL BE IF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE           
ENOUGH TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING FOR WEDNESDAY...THUS DIMINISHING                
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  HOPEFULY IF WE GET A FULL SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT            
WE WILL BE ABLE TO ANSWER SOME OF THESE LINGERING QUESTIONS FOR THE             
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  MCQUEEN                                                     
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 211553  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
BAND OF MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH               
ANOTHER SHOT OF PCPN ON ITS WAY FROM CNTRL PA.  THIS BAND HAS BEEN              
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IN ANY                 
HURRY TO MOVE OFF TO THE E.  IN FACT RUC AND ETA MDLS SUGGEST A                 
SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT TO MAIN MSTR BAND OVERNIGHT AS SRN PORTION             
OF UPPER LVL TROUGH KICKS RAPIDLY EWRD AND NRN END PIVOTS TO THE W.             
THERE ARE ALSO A FEW FORCING MECHANISMS TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING                   
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH A COUPLED JET STREAK IN                
PLACE THROUGH 12Z AND BOTH 850 AND 700 MB QG FRONTOGENESIS SHOWS                
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOW LAYERS.  ALSO A SLIGHT NELY SFC FLOW              
HELPING TO KEEP MSTR LOCKED IN OVER CNTRL NY AND PROVIDING FOR A                
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WHILE DRY AIR WORKS EVER SO SLOWLY INTO                
XTRM WRN NY.  WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FROM            
BROOME COUNTY E AND S WITH A NARROW AREA OF SCT POPS JUST E OF THE              
I-81 CORRIDOR.  WILL CONT WITH DRY FCST ACRS WRN ZNS.  WITH CLOUD               
COVER AND PCPN TEMPS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH...CURRENT MINS               
LOOK GOOD.                                                                      
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 211917    ny                                    

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
DISC: MODELS RUNNING VERY LATE AND NOT MUCH HELP WITH THE NEW                   
PACKAGE..LATEST SFC PLOT HAS A VRY WK LO ARND CAPE COD AND THE WK               
FNT XNTDS S INTO CNTRL VA AND THEN DIES OUT. 88D DATA SHOWS THE PCPN            
CONTS TO MOVE UP AND OVR THE FA WITH AMOUNTS RUNNING BTWN .30 AND               
ARND .50 OVR THE WRN ZNS. WL CONT WITH THE FFA THRU TNGT.                       
LATEST RUC SHOW THE H5 TROF SLOWLY PUSHING E AND THERE APPEARS TO BE            
A LITTLE S/W DVLPNG AT THE BASE OF THE TROF. THIS MAY ALOS RIDE UP              
ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROD AND GIVE US SOME ADDITIONAL PCPN. WL CONT             
WITH THE CURRENT FCST AND KP THE PCPN IN THRU THE MRNG HRS...THEN AS            
FNT MOVS FURTHER E OF CSTL AREAS THE PCPN SHD COME TO AN END. WITH              
THE UPR TROF STL IN THE OH VLY WE WL BE SLOW TO CLR AND WL KP P/CLDY            
WED NGT AND INTO THU.                                                           
MARINE...SEAS RUNNING 5 TO 7 FT AND WL LV UP THE SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS.            
.NYC/OKX...FFA FOR THIS AFTN AND TNGT FOR NERN NJ ZNS...                        
           NJZ002>006-011.                                                      
           SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS FOR CSTL WTRS...ANZ355-353-350.                   
GSK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 211722  ny                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
958 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK S/W DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN         
PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE GENERATING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SFC TROF            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/W PASSING THROUGH THE NRN RRV ATTM WITH WINDS             
SHIFTING TO THE SW. LATEST RUC ALONG WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS         
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG BEHIND THE SFC TROF...HOWEVER LATEST KMVX VWP             
SHOWS 20 KTS IN THE LOWEST GATES. WILL LEAVE WINDS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL          
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                            
LAMP NUMBERS COMPARING FAVORABLY WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AND          
ARE IN SUPPORT OF ONGOING FORECAST. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO                
CURRENT FORECAST AS ALL PARAMETERS ON TRACK.                                    
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
RJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 210831  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
950 EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                         
REALLY NO MAJOR CHGS XPCTS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.  AMS UNSTBL UNDER            
750 MB OR SO. INVN COMMING DOWN TDA BUT LOW LVL INSTBY AND MSTR RMN.            
ALSO STG VORT SHOWN ON 09Z RUC ROTATING THROUGH FA.  AXIS OF VORT               
NE/SW THRU AREA THIS AFTN WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKUP OF CLDS              
NW BUT FOR NOW WL JUST GO WITH MC AND NOT WORRY ABOUT TREND SINCE IT            
MAY TAKE A LACK OF "HEATING" WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP SO LOW...BEFORE               
CLDS BGN TO DSIPT.  AS FOR TEMPS...CRNT READINGS NOT TOO FAR FROM               
FCST HIGHS BUT AGAIN CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON BUFKIT ARE IN THE 50S AS               
WELL SO WL PROB NOT GO FAR FROM HERE...AS FCST.  CRNT RA WEST OF MFD            
APRS TO BE REGENERATING SOMEWHAT SO WILL PAIR OFF NEW GROUP AND                 
RAISE POPS...OTRW MIX OF VC/MC WITH 20S AND 30S FOR POPS.                       
.CLE...NONE.                                                                    
TK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KILN 210914  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1138 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                     
ATMOSPHERE NOT COOPERATING THIS EVENING. AREA OF DPVA THAT I SAW                
EARLIER IS LEADING TO INCREASING RETURNS ON THE 88D AN A FEW SPITS              
OF RAIN. AS THE FORCING WL ONLY GET STRONGER NEXT FEW HOURS...AND               
BASED ON DEEP 1000-500 MB SATURATED LAYER ON THE 00Z RUC...INTRODUCED           
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN MTNS AND NRN NC PIEDMONT COUNTIES. A FEW                   
CONVECTIVE RETURNS CONTINUE OVER THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE COLD               
POOL ALOFT AND DEEP SATURATED LAYER ARE HELPING THE SHRA. FOR THESE             
ZONES HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT                
(AFTER MY LAST UPDATE WL MOST DEFINITELY NOT TRY TO TIME IT).                   
STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT WINDS KICKING UP IN THE UPSTATE...               
BUT THEY HAVE NOT YET SO WL LEAVE THE WINDS BE.                                 
.GSP...NONE                                                                     
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 220124  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
ADAP HAS SURFACE LIS OF ZERO TO -2 ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.            
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALSO ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST.              
SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE STATE HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING. RUC             
LINGERS SHORT WAVE OVER THE MIDLANDS THROUGH 06Z. SURFACE FRONT JUST            
ENTERING THE UPSTATE WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING OFF INTO THE LOWER 50S.            
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COOLED DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 60 ACROSS CNTRL SC.                 
WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. PLAN TO LOWER POPS ACROSS                 
MY WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY.                          
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 220055  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
855 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
WV IMGRY CLEARLY SHOWS S/WV ADVANCING EWD THRU NRN GA/SC. MAIN AREA             
OF PCPN HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS...BUT WIDELY                  
SCATTERED SHRA HV POPPED UP FM CAE TO JUST N OF SAV WHERE HIER THETA-           
E EXISTS ALG W/SUM WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. LTST RUC2/MAPS INDICATE A              
CHC OF PCPN THRU 4-8Z...BUT AFTER THAT PVA MOVES E AND SUBSIDENCE               
BEGINS TO SET IN. PLAN TO CONTINUE 20 TO 30 POPS OVER FA TIL AT LEAST           
MIDNIGHT...PERHAPS ALL NIGHT. WL LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA IN FOR NOW AS            
ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO WEAKEN. WL MAKE FINAL DECISION JUST B4 ISSUANCE             
BASED ON LTST RADAR. TEMP/WIND FCST LOOKS FINE WITH NO MORE THAN A              
MINOR TWEAK. ALSO...BASED ON 18Z RUC2/MAPS...WL REMOVE PCPN FM WED              
FCST. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND S/WV MOVES AWAY...FEEL CHC OF PCPN            
IS MUCH LESS THAN 20 PCT. WL JUST GO BECMG P/CLOUDY.                            
CWF...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS OVER THE            
WATERS BETWEEN LOW EXITING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING            
FRONT OVER LAND. HOWEVER EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN                    
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.             
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS WITH               
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST LEVELS LOOKING OK BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.                  
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH.                       
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.                           
TJR/                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 211916  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
SURFACE FRONT JUST ENTERING NC MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A            
GOOD SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG               
EAST SLOPES. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LINGERING OVER EASTERN TN             
BEHIND FRONT AND AHEAD OF POTENT SHORT WAVE.                                    
15Z RUC SHOWING LEADING EDGE OF GOOD Q CONVERGENCE AREA IN 700 TO               
300 MB LAYER. THE Q CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF               
110 KT JET THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF CWA...PROVIDING             
SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ALSO HANGING                
AROUND AREA INTO EVENING...THEN MID AND UPPER LAYERS DRY OUT AS SHORT           
WAVE PASSES TO THE EAST.                                                        
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL MORNING..SO I WILL CONTINUE           
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH MORNING CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SUNSHINE              
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WE MAY            
SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE              
DURING THE WEEKEND.                                                             
THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER OVERNIGHT               
MINIMUMS. DAYTIME HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER         
THAN NORMAL...BUT WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.            
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
AVL...50/66/42/71 4/0/0/0                                                       
CLT...55/72/46/75 4/0/0/0                                                       
GSP...54/72/46/75 4/0/0/0                                                       
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 211416  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                     
MID LEVEL DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENT ON WATER                
VAPOR. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST INTO AREA OF              
HIGHER THETAE AND MORE INSTABILITY. BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIP IN                    
THE VICINITY OF AGS MOVING TOWARDS THE CWA. SOME HOLES IN CLOUD COVER           
ALREADY EVIDENT. LOW PRES ALREADY TRYING TO DEVELOP OFF THE GA/SC               
COAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS AFTN PULLING FRONTAL BNDRY             
AND DRIER AIR OFF THE COAST. VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGGED TO              
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC...                 
HOWEVER BEST POTENTIAL TODAY FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE               
COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED              
SHOWERS FOR TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCE (ONCE THE AGS PRECIP MOVES THRU)           
OVER NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL LOWER POPS TO THE 20 TO 30 RANGE.             
BELIEVE THUNDER POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR SC              
COASTAL PORTION ONLY WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY EXISTS. CLOUD              
COVER MAY BE A BIT TRICKY AND COULD BE A GOOD TIME TO USE VARIABLE              
CLOUDS FOR SC PORTION WITH SOME HOLES EXPECTED. TEMP FCST LOOKS                 
REASONABLE.                                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS WE REMAIN CLOSE TO...BUT BELOW...SCA CRITERIA.              
MESOETA SHOWING WINDS ACTUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS A WEAK SFC LOW                
DVLPS OVER NE FL WATERS AND MOVES UP THE COAST JUST OFFSHORE ALONG              
THE FRONT ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE...RUC IS SIMILAR.                              
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE                                                                       
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 50NM.                
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20-50NM.                   
SLF/SLB                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 211357  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
957 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
SHORT WAVE AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST                
ACROSS CWA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. 12Z RUC NA             
BUT MESO ETA INDICATING ENOUGH Q CONVERGENCE...OMEGA UPLIFT AND                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS HAVE CAPES TO                
1200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES REACHING MINUS 5. LAPSE RATES IN 850              
TO 500 MB LAYER OVER 6 DEG OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA THIS AFTN              
SO WILL ADD THUNDER THERE.                                                      
TEMPS LOOK OK FOR MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN SO WILL LEAVE AS IS.                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 211342  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT SHOWS THE WINDS REMAINING LIGHT OUT OF THE S TO SW        
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS              
...TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF TO NEAR THE DWPTS BY SUNRISE. HAVE UPDATED             
ZONES TO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS AND WINDS.                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 212018  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
338 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
CDFNT HAS MOVED THROUGH CWFA OVERNIGHT. 50H SHORTWAVE FM SOUTHERN IL            
TO NW AR WL MOVE SE ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING. 06Z RUC SEEMS TO             
BE DOING A BETTER JOB AS IT MOVES A MORE COHERENT SHORTWAVE THROUGH             
THE MEM CWFA AND INTO N CNTRL MS BY 18Z. ETA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT             
THE NGM..SPLIT SHORTWAVE WITH ONE SECTION DIVING TO NRN LA AND THE              
OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. CURRENT SAT AND RADAR TRENDS                 
SUPPORT RUC SOLUTION. SHWRS MOST NUMEROUS ACRS KY/TN BORDER AND WL GO           
WITH A 40 POP THERE THIS MORNING. SCT/WIDELY SCT SHWRS EXTEND WEST              
WELL INTO AR. NOT CONFIDENT THAT THESE SHWRS WL HOLD TOGETHER SO WL             
GO WITH 20 POP ATTM.                                                            
RAPID CLEARING BEHIND SHORTWAVE AXIS. SC/CU WL DEVELOP BEHIND TROF              
AXIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA. CU RULE INDICATES NORTHERN MS WL                
STAY CLOUDY ALL DAY. ELSW EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTN. FWC             
TEMPS SEEM FINE. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO            
20 MPH AND GUSTY.                                                               
FOR TONIGHT..HI PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD ACRS THE REGION. SFC WIND               
WL KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT SO WL NOT STRAY FROM FWC TEMPS. FOR            
WED..SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AND LESS WIND.                
EXPECT WED NIGHT TO BE THE COOLEST IN THE SERIES AS WINDS WL GO CALM            
AND SKIES WL BE CLEAR. WL TRIM 3 TO 7 DEGREES OF GUIDANCE.                      
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
SJM                                                                             
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
924 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS WERE NOTED AT THE AIRPORT             
BEFORE 00Z. LATEST RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THIS LIGHT RAIN                
MOVING TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF IT                 
NOTED...FROM WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...OVER NORTHERN BREWSTER                 
COUNTY...TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF TX. LOW/MID CLOUDS NORTH OF            
IT HAVE OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND. IN SPITE OF THE RADAR NOT SHOWING              
ANY ECHOES THERE (OVERSHOOTING?) DO THINK LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING               
THERE. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.                                                             
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTH             
PLAINS...MOVING TO THE SE IN THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z RUC HAS            
IT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY WED MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED                
ANIMATION HAS SCT/BKN CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE LEA COUNTY AND OUR                  
NORTHERN TX COUNTIES. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS HEADING EAST...WILL KEEP            
WORDING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED            
SINCE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE              
ONLY EXCEPTION...GDP WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT. NOT MANY CHANGES TO            
BE NOTED IN UPDATED ZONES. WILL MAKE THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOUDY RATHER           
THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MINOR WIND TWEAKING. TEMPS LOOK O.K.                     
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 220211  tx                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
THE 14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT ALONG A BPT/GLS/PSX/HDO               
LINE...WITH CAA AND NORTH WIND 15-25KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 00Z-12Z            
FWD/SHV SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG CAA BELOW 850 MB. THE MAIN UPDATE                 
ISSUES ARE TIMING THE FRONT AND CAA/VERTICAL MIXING BEHIND THE                  
FRONT...WHICH AFFECT ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS.                                   
THE 09Z RUC FRONTAL TIMING BASED ON THICKNESS LOOKS FINE...PLACING IT           
THROUGH THE SRN END OF THE CWA BY 21Z. THE RUC EVEN SQUEEZED OUT                
PRECIP MATCHING THE LIGHT SHOWERS EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE NRN               
CWA.                                                                            
SO THE UPDATE WILL FOLLOW THE RUC AND REMOVE POPS FOR ALL ZONES.                
ALSO PLAN TO INCREASE WINDS A CATEGORY AND HIGHLIGHT CAUTION ON AREA            
LAKES. SIMILARLY...WILL INCREASE THE MARINE WINDS ONE CATEGORY                  
TODAY...BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE TONIGHT/WED AS CAA HITS THE              
WARM WATER. TEMPS ARE VERY TRICKY DUE TO THE WARM START...STRONG                
CAA...AND VARIABLE CLOUDS. CHECK OF FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES                 
CURRENT FORECAST ON THE HIGH SIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NRN CWA. WILL             
LOWER TEMPS 1/2 TO ONE CATEGORY.                                                
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER AFTER CONSULTING WITH            
THE USDA FOREST SERVICE. MAIN REASON IS VERY DRY VEGETATION/SOILS...            
RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT...AND NORTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME              
HIGHER GUSTS.                                                                   
.HGX...SCA FOR BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS 0-50 NM FROM HIGH ISLAND TO              
           THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.                                          
       RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER.                                       
31/47                                                                           
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BU 082/051 082/049 085 000                                                  
IAH BU 083/054 083/050 085 000                                                  
GLS BU 083/068 083/065 083 000                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 211422  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
522 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                      
...HEAVY SURF ADVY ACK-PTWN...                                                  
STMT OUT ARD 540 AM.                                                            
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT FOR THE MID SHIFT               
UNLESS ZONES ARE UPDATED PRIOR TO 8 AM EDT. ZONES/CWF COORD AND                 
MERGED WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND INCORPORATED 00Z/22 MRF/SEF IN                 
THE EFP PORTION OF THE FCST.                                                    
MARINE:  SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE...GALE FORCE GUSTS                    
         TO 37 KTS OCCURRED AT CASHES LEDGE AT 06Z JUST AHD OF 1001             
         MB LOW AT 41/69 AT 06Z (SHIP REPORT ANALYSIS).                         
PUBLIC: HEAVY SURF ADVY FOR ACK/CC...ESP E PORTION OF CAPE CQX-PTWN.            
        STRONG SWELLS FM GIRT STILL TRANSLATE NWWD TWD NEW ENGLAND.             
        AT 08Z 15 FTRS AT ACK SHOALS...8 FTRS PWM LIGHT WITH CASHES             
        15-16 FT AND STILL RISING TO THE S OF LONG ISLAND. MAY NEED             
        TO EXPAND ADVY IN THE 11 AM PKG. DANGER OF RIPS PLUS/MINUS 3            
        HRS OF LOW TIDE. SURF EXPECTED TO INCREASE E COASTAL MA VCNTY           
        BOS/NEWBURYPORT LATER THIS AM.                                          
RAINFALL: RAISED NGM POPS 20-30 PCT TO CATEGORICAL TDY IN RESPONSE TO           
          EXTENSIVE AREA OF RW-/RW UPSTREAM ASSTD WITH SHARP 7H/5H              
          TROF. SML CHC OF ISOLATED TSTM NR VT MAX LATE TDY OR THIS             
          EVE IN OUR CWA....MNLY SE COASTAL REGION BUT NOT IN THE               
          FCST YET...IF AT ALL. SWI DOWN TO ABT 1. TT NR 46...                  
          MARGINAL AT WORST. NO GUARENTEE ON MEASURABLE RAIN TDY BUT            
          RUC/ETA/NGM/GEM SIGNAL DEEP RH THIS AFTN AND WK UVM..SHUD B           
          ENOUGH TO GET MEASURABLE IN DECENT LOW LVL CNV. MAY HAVE              
          DECENT SHWRS CONT CC...ESP AFTER 00Z/23. AT 09Z VWP WINDS             
          ABV 6K HAVE A LOT OF SLY COMPONENT FM NJ TO NYS.                      
THIS FCST PROBABLY STARTED CLEARING TOO SOON ON CC...MAY NEED TO                
DELAY IT TIL AT LEAST DAYBREAK THU PER LATE CK 03Z ETA CLOUD COVER              
FCST.                                                                           
NICE WX SLATED FOR THU AND LOOKS LIKE GOOD TIMING FOR SEASONAL                  
PATTERN CHANGE TO AUTUMN WITH WARM TKNS (WARM 500 MB HTS) AND FQT               
PROBABLY DRY FROPAS...LOOKING FOR GENERALLY NICE WX TO CONT INTO AT             
LEAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WK.  DOWNPLAYED SHWR FCST A BIT FRI TO MERGE               
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES AND DELAYED IT ELSEWHERE UNTIL EARLY SAT IN               
ASSN WITH EC/MRF STG VORT PASSAGE.  DIDNT GO FOR 80 ANYWHERE IN SNE             
THIS WKND YET DUE TO LEFTOVR LOW LVL COOL POOL...BUT 80 NOT OUT OF              
THE QUESTION SUN AFTN CT RVR VLY.                                               
WARM TKNS AND DRY AIR PROBABLY TRANSLATES TO ENLARGED DIURNALS SUN-             
TUE AND STILL CUD B COOL 40S SUN AM IN MANY SUBURBS. SEABREEZES                 
LIKELY SUN AFTN.  MID OR UPPER 80S WARMTH MORE LIKELY SOMETIME NEXT             
WK AND MRF SAYS SFC TDS MAY YET AGAIN REACH THE LOWER 70S LATER NEXT            
WK. IF MID-UPPER 80S OCCUR...WUD B NEAR RECORD VALUES...BUT                     
THATS WAY OFF AND MUCH CAN CHANGE TO MITIGATE THAT WARMTH.                      
.BOX...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ALL WTRS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR AND                        
       NARRAGANSETT BAY.                                                        
       HEAVY SURF ADVY TODAY ACK AND CAPE COD.                                  
DRAG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBOX 220626  ma                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
240 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                      
CURRENT RADAR LOOP STILL SHOWG PLENTY OF PCPN AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF         
THE CWA ATTM.  THIS MOIST WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE RGN TDY AS STG UPPER         
TROF PIVOTS THRU.  ETA/NGM/AVN ALL SEEM TO MISS THE BOAT WITH ONGOING           
PCPN...SO RELIED MORE ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT.  WILL            
CARRY A CHC OF SHWRS (40%) THIS MRNG ALG THE I-81 CORRIDOR FROM SYR SWD         
THRU BGM AND AVP.  FURTHER E ACRS THE POCONOS/CATSK...WILL GO WITH LKLY         
POPS.  I/LL INDICATE A GRDL IMPROVING TREND BY/DURG THE AFTN AS DEEPER          
MOIST PULLS OUT AND NVA SETS IN FROM W TO E.  HOWEVER...HRLY PROFILES           
SHOW LOTS OF LL MOIST LINGERING THIS AFTN AND 5H COLD POOL WILL BE MOVG         
ACRS THE AREA...SO ANY CLRG TREND THAT DVLPS SHUD EASILY PRODUCE LOTS           
OF SC.  THEREFORE...ONLY WORDED THE FCST AS "BRKS OF SUN" TO SHOW THAT          
CLDS MAY YET HAVE THE UPPER HAND EVEN DURG THE AFTN.                            
TNT...WILL GO A LTL MORE OPTIMISTICALLY WITH P/CLDY IN THE FCST GIVEN           
LACK OF CLDS OBSERVED ATTM WELL UPSTREAM ACRS THE OH VLY/GRT LKS RGNS           
NEAR SFC RIDGE AXIS.  STILL DID MENTION SOME CLDS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY            
RESIDUAL SC ERLY THIS EVE AND THEN PSBL ST/FOG FORMATION LATE.                  
THU...SFC HI MOVES QUICKLY TWDS THE SE COAST...WITH A SW LL FLOW SETTING        
UP OVER NY/PA.  85H FLOW INCRS TO ABT 30 KT BY 18Z...AND THIS SHUD HELP         
TO ADVECT A MILDER AMS INTO THE FA.  BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY BASED         
ON THIS OCCURRENCE AND ALSO TO SHADE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE.  IT LOOKS LIKE         
SOME PATCHY CU/AC MAY FORM DURG THE AFTN IN ASSOCN WITH A WK VORT               
LOBE...MAINLY N.  FOR NOW...WENT WITH P/SNY ACRS THE NRN ZNS AND M/SNY          
FROM NY/S SRN TIER INTO NE PA.                                                  
USED A BLEND OF FWC/FAN TEMPS.                                                  
WRK ZNS SENT.  FINAL RELEASE COMING BETWEEN 3 AND 330.                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 220452  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
924 PM CDT TUE SEP 21 1999                                                      
VERY LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WITH TRACE AMOUNTS WERE NOTED AT THE AIRPORT             
BEFORE 00Z. LATEST RADAR SHOWED ANOTHER BATCH OF THIS LIGHT RAIN                
MOVING TO THE SE OVER SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY...WITH THE BULK OF IT                 
NOTED...FROM WESTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...OVER NORTHERN BREWSTER                 
COUNTY...TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                  
SHOWED THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF TX. LOW/MID CLOUDS NORTH OF            
IT HAVE OVERSPREAD THE BIG BEND. IN SPITE OF THE RADAR NOT SHOWING              
ANY ECHOES THERE (OVERSHOOTING?) DO THINK LIGHT RAIN IS OCCURRING               
THERE. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN                  
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.                                                             
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A VORT MAX OVER THE SOUTH             
PLAINS...MOVING TO THE SE IN THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT. THE 00Z RUC HAS            
IT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY BY WED MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED                
ANIMATION HAS SCT/BKN CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE LEA COUNTY AND OUR                  
NORTHERN TX COUNTIES. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUDS HEADING EAST...WILL KEEP            
WORDING OF MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DECREASED            
SINCE TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE              
ONLY EXCEPTION...GDP WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT. NOT MANY CHANGES TO            
BE NOTED IN UPDATED ZONES. WILL MAKE THE SOUTHERN AREAS CLOUDY RATHER           
THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MINOR WIND TWEAKING. TEMPS LOOK O.K.                     
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 220211  tx                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
925 AM PDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                      
UPPER LOW SPINNING OFFSHORE NEAR 32N/126W WITH A GOOD SURGE OF                  
MOISTURE INTO CALIFORNIA. 12Z DRA/OAK RAOBS SHOWING PW VALUES                   
BETWEEN 3/4 AND 1 INCH WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE LIFTED              
INDICIES. SURFACE DEW POINTS UP ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 12 DEGREES THE               
PAST 24 HRS.                                                                    
BEST CONVECTION FIRING JUST OFF THE CENTRAL COAST WITH SCATTERED                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS THE CWFA. LATEST RUC SHOWS A            
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING NORTH ACROSS CWFA TODAY. DIFFICULT TO              
PINPOINT THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF            
THE CURRENT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE                 
COAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.                                 
LATEST MODELS SHOW THE BEST OMEGA JUST EAST OF THE CWFA TODAY WITH A            
SECONDARY MAX OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS                    
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP AREAS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BUT WILL NEED TO               
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY TRAINING ECHOES OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS                  
FROM THUNDERSTORMS.                                                             
CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE TODAYS MAX TEMPS. CURRENT TEMPS WAY OUT              
FRONT OF YESTERDAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SJV WITH MORE CLOUDS TO THE              
SOUTH HOLDING TEMPS DOWN. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THE             
NORTH PORTION OF THE CWFA THE REST OF THE MORNING SLOWING THE                   
WARMUP. WILL LET CURRENT ZONES RIDE FOR NOW.                                    
.HNX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY FOR THE KERN             
       COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AND TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...               
LINDQUIST                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSTO 221617  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS             
AND TEMPS.                                                                      
WV LOOP HINTED AT UPR LVL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH NRN MANITOBA                 
INTO NW ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS SHRTWV WAS SUPPORTING LITTLE MORE THAN            
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IR/VIS LOOPS SHOWED BANDS OF AC/CI FROM                    
MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO ACRS WRN LK SUPERIOR STREAMING ACRS UPR MI.            
CLOUDS WITH WEAK 500-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 315-320 ISENTROPIC             
LIFT...PER 12Z RUC FCST TO SLIDE ACRS AREA BTWN 15Z-21Z. LYR BLO 500            
MB REMAINS DRY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AREA DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE               
WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET LEADING TO THINNING CLOUDS.                        
NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD FILTER THROUGH SO THAT GOING              
PTSUNNY FCST WL WORK.                                                           
12Z GRB SNDG AND AREA FCST SNDGS WITH 850 TEMPS INTO 8-10C RANGE                
SUPPORT GOING MAX TEMP FCST FROM 65-70F. DOWNSLOPE WNW WINDS WL                 
BRING READINGS TO WARMER END OF RANGE AT MARQUETTE AND IMT.                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 221442  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1020 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                     
.DISC...ERLIER MDLS DIDN/T HANDLE CURRENT WRAPUP WELL AT ALL. ERLIER            
RUC DID THE BEST...HOWEVER IT WAS OFF BY ABT 9 HRS...TOO SLO.  CLD              
SHIELD AND PCPN WRPG UP BUT N+E PROGRESS SLOWING UP ATTM.  FEEL THE             
ONLY PART OF THE FA THAT WILL DRY OUT DURNG THE DAY WILL BE THE SRN             
MOST ZONES. OVR THE NRN AREAS...PCPN/CLD SHIELD SHLD RMN IN PLACE               
THRU MOST OF THE DAY AND SLOLY SHIFT E AS THE UPR LOW CREEPS EWRD.              
THIS TREND CONFIRMED BY NEWER RUC (12Z) WHICH HAS A BETTER (NOT                 
PERFECT) HANDLE ON CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS.                                        
UPSHOT OF ABV...WILL CHG FCST OF ZONES FROM MOHAWK VLY NWRD OVR NY TO           
BASICALLY PDS OF RAIN. FOR SRN VT WILL ALSO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH            
CLDS AND PCPN FOR THE AFTN. ALL THIS WILL ALSO REQUIRE A DOWNWRD                
TWEAK TO THE TEMP FCST.  THE ONLY AREA TO BE SPARED THE WORST WILL BE           
THE SRN ZONES.                                                                  
WRKZFP OUT ARND 1035 AM.                                                        
.ALB...NONE.                                                                    
CERNIGLIA                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 221401    ny                                    

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
919 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                      
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN                      
CAROLINAS THIS AFTN. 09Z RUC SWINGS A VORT AXIS AROUND THE BASE OF              
THE TROF AND INDICATES SOME LIFT ACROSS EASTERN SC BUT AT THE SAME              
TIME OVERALL MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD BE DECREASING. EARLY VIS SATL               
IS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS              
OF THE CAROLINAS. SFC LOW OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE FNT WILL CONT               
TO PULL NE AWAY FROM THE REGION. ATTM BELIEVE THE COMBO OF THE                  
TROF...VORT AND SFC LOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY                      
ADDITIONA RAIN BUT WILL SLOW THE CLEARING TREND. WILL REWORD SKY TO             
BECMG P/SUNNY. NO ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED TO TEMPS.                                 
CWF: WILL BRING WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25 KT FOR THE SC WATERS AS MYR                
REPORTED GUST TO 21 IN THE LAST HOUR. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX                
DURING THE AFTN BUT WITH CAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW              
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY UP. WILL DROP MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE AFTN.                  
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SURF CITY NC.              
IRELAND                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 221227  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1019 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                     
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE COAST OF SC AND NC WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR                 
WORKING INTO THE CWA. LOW LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER HOWEVER              
CLOUDS ARE LIFTING AND BREAKING UP. SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN               
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES WITH CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. WILL              
STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED               
TO MOVE THROUGH SC AND GA LATER TODAY BUT SHOULD ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE            
CU DEVELOPMENT WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. CHILLY TEMPS AND DEWPTS WELL            
BELOW YDAY AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH SIG SUN EXPECTED THIS AFTN WILL              
HOLD TOUGH WITH TEMP FCST AT THIS TIME. EXPECT GOOD MIXING TO BRING             
GUSTY WINDS TO SFC THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH UP            
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY WORDING WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST.               
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE A CASE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AT LEAST FOR               
MOULTRIE AND THE LAKE CLOSER TO THE COAST. HAVE GOTTEN GUSTS TO 25              
KT AT CHS AND COULD BE HIGHER AT THE LAKES.                                     
CWF...NO SIG CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. WILL ADD MENTION OF GUSTS IN THE           
CHS HARBOR TO 30 KTS TODAY SINCE IT HAS BEEN OCCURRING THE LAST FEW             
HOURS AND RUC AND MESOETA FCST OF TIGHT SFC PRESS GRAD TO CONT THRU             
AFTERNOON APPEARS ACCURATE AND INLINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS ATTM.             
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.             
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 50 NM.                 
SLF/SLB                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 221351  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1010 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                     
OBS AND SAT PICS SHOW CIGS LIFTING ALONG WRN EDGE OF CWA. STILL SOME            
BKN SC FM WRN GREENBRIER COUNTY TO ASHE COUTY NC. REST OF FA DRY AND            
VERY STABLE. KRNK AND KIAD 12Z SOUDINGS WERE VERY DRY ABV THE BNRY              
LYR. ONLY SCT CAA CU EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MAY SLIGHTLY ADJUST TEMPS              
FOR THIS AFTN AFT A FINAL LOOK AT 14Z OBS. WINDS ALREADY GUSTING 13             
TO 23 KTS AND 12Z RUC HAD 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVR FA THRU 00Z SO NO               
OTHER FCST CHANGES NEEDED FOR NOW.                                              
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
AMS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 221307 AMD  va                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
955 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999                                                      
SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN NOW SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN               
PART OF THE CWA AND SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY MID-AFTERNOON. VSBL                   
SATPIX ALREADY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL               
PLAINS COUNTIES...SO WILL GO FOR A BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TREND IN              
THOSE AREAS. BASED ON 12Z MHX SOUNDING...SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION             
BLO 900 MB...FEEL CLEARING WILL BE SLOWER CLOSER TO THE COAST.                  
LATEST RUC-II RUN SHOWS DRIER AIR REACHING THE COASTAL PLAINS AROUND            
18Z...THE SOUTH COAST BY 21Z AND THE OUTER BANKS BY 00Z THU. AS A               
RESULT...WILL KEEP AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY               
FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH RAPID CLEARING EARLY TONIGHT.                            
COASTAL...SOLID GALES BLOWING OVER THE NRN WATERS AND THE SOUNDS.               
SOME FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 12 WAS REPORTED NEAR CEDAR ISLAND AND                  
OCRACOKE AS THE STRONG NORTH WINDS BLOW WATER OVER THE ROAD.                    
A LTL MORE MARGINAL BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE CRITERIA              
DOWN SOUTH...BUT WILL KEEP GOING FOR ONE MORE CYCLE AS SOME                     
GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR.                                                     
.MHX...GALE WARNING COASTAL WATERS.                                             
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 221319  nc