# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center.
# Please send comments and suggestions to sec@sec.noaa.gov
#
#                   Annual Verification Statistics for Daily X Flare Probability Forecasts
#
# Lead Time:       Forecast lead time
# Total Records:   Total number of daily forecast/observation records used to generate statistic
# Event Days:      Total number of days in the sample on which at least one X class flare occurred
# Mean (f):        Mean forecast
# Mean (x):        Mean observation
# Median (f):      Median forecast
# Std Dev (f):     Standard deviation of forecasts
# Std Dev (x):     Standard deviation of observations
# Std Dev (f-x):   Standard deviation of forecasts minus observations
# Mean (f|x=1):    Mean forecast given the occurrence of an event
# Mean (f|x=0):    Mean forecast given the non-occurrence of an event
# Median (f|x=1):  Median forecast given the occurrence of an event
# Median (f|x=0):  Median forecast given the non-occurrence of an event
# Std Dev (f|x=1): Standard deviation of forecasts given the occurrence of an event
# Std Dev (f|x=0): Standard deviation of forecasts given the non-occurrence of an event
# Discrimination:  The difference between [Mean (f|x=1)] and [Mean (f|x=0)]
# ME:              Mean error
# MAE:             Mean absolute error
# MSE:             Mean square error
# RMSE:            Root mean square error
# Linear Assoc:    Linear correlation between forecasts and observations
# Skill:           Forecast skill with respect to observed climatology (same as prediction efficiency)
#
# Missing data:      -99999
#

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2006
Start:              1/1/06
End:               12/31/06
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               4         4         4
Mean (f):             0.019     0.019     0.018
Mean (x):             0.011     0.011     0.011
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.050     0.048     0.048
Std Dev (x):          0.104     0.104     0.104
Std Dev (f-x):        0.098     0.111     0.113
Mean (f|x=1):         0.190     0.055     0.043
Mean (f|x=0):         0.017     0.018     0.018
Median (f|x=1):       0.300     0.100     0.050
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.161     0.052     0.043
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.044     0.048     0.048
Discrimination:       0.173     0.037     0.024
ME:                   0.008     0.008     0.007
MAE:                  0.026     0.028     0.028
MSE:                  0.010     0.012     0.013
RMSE:                 0.098     0.111     0.113
Linear Assoc:         0.362     0.080     0.053
Skill:                0.112    -0.147    -0.171

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2005
Start:              1/1/05
End:               12/31/05
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              13        13        13
Mean (f):             0.049     0.046     0.043
Mean (x):             0.036     0.036     0.036
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.105     0.097     0.092
Std Dev (x):          0.186     0.186     0.186
Std Dev (f-x):        0.161     0.171     0.173
Mean (f|x=1):         0.323     0.250     0.223
Mean (f|x=0):         0.039     0.038     0.037
Median (f|x=1):       0.300     0.200     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.211     0.190     0.196
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.084     0.083     0.078
Discrimination:       0.284     0.212     0.186
ME:                   0.014     0.010     0.008
MAE:                  0.062     0.064     0.063
MSE:                  0.026     0.029     0.030
RMSE:                 0.161     0.171     0.173
Linear Assoc:         0.502     0.405     0.377
Skill:                0.242     0.147     0.127

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2004
Start:              1/1/04
End:               12/31/04
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          366       366       366
Event Days:               9         9         9
Mean (f):             0.048     0.046     0.043
Mean (x):             0.025     0.025     0.025
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.068     0.067     0.065
Std Dev (x):          0.155     0.155     0.155
Std Dev (f-x):        0.149     0.154     0.157
Mean (f|x=1):         0.179     0.146     0.113
Mean (f|x=0):         0.045     0.043     0.041
Median (f|x=1):       0.200     0.150     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.110     0.090     0.079
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.064     0.065     0.064
Discrimination:       0.134     0.102     0.072
ME:                   0.023     0.021     0.018
MAE:                  0.064     0.063     0.062
MSE:                  0.023     0.024     0.025
RMSE:                 0.151     0.155     0.158
Linear Assoc:         0.305     0.237     0.173
Skill:                0.052    -0.001    -0.044


Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2003
Start:              1/1/03
End:               12/31/03
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              17        17        17
Mean (f):             0.065     0.061     0.056
Mean (x):             0.047     0.047     0.047
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050 
Std Dev (f):          0.104     0.100     0.090
Std Dev (x):          0.211     0.211     0.211
Std Dev (f-x):        0.188     0.200     0.203 
Mean (f|x=1):         0.281     0.215     0.180 
Mean (f|x=0):         0.055     0.053     0.050 
Median (f|x=1):       0.250     0.150     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.010 
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.244     0.225     0.192
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.079     0.083     0.077
Discrimination:       0.226     0.161     0.130 
ME:                   0.019     0.014     0.010 
MAE:                  0.086     0.087     0.086
MSE:                  0.036     0.040     0.041 
RMSE:                 0.188     0.201     0.203
Linear Assoc:         0.458     0.340     0.304
Skill:                0.200     0.093     0.076

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2002
Start:              1/1/02
End:               12/31/02
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              12        12        12
Mean (f):             0.073     0.070     0.066
Mean (x):             0.033     0.033     0.033
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.062     0.061     0.060
Std Dev (x):          0.179     0.179     0.179
Std Dev (f-x):        0.177     0.179     0.178
Mean (f|x=1):         0.138     0.123     0.123
Mean (f|x=0):         0.070     0.068     0.064
Median (f|x=1):       0.200     0.150     0.150
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.071     0.075     0.072
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.061     0.060     0.059
Discrimination:       0.067     0.055     0.058
ME:                   0.040     0.037     0.033
MAE:                  0.096     0.094     0.091
MSE:                  0.033     0.033     0.033
RMSE:                 0.182     0.183     0.181
Linear Assoc:         0.193     0.160     0.172
Skill:               -0.037    -0.050    -0.033

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2001
Start:              1/1/01
End:               12/31/01
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              18        18        18
Mean (f):             0.100     0.095     0.092
Mean (x):             0.049     0.049     0.049
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.099     0.095     0.092
Std Dev (x):          0.217     0.217     0.217
Std Dev (f-x):        0.218     0.216     0.213
Mean (f|x=1):         0.194     0.192     0.192
Mean (f|x=0):         0.095     0.090     0.086
Median (f|x=1):       0.200     0.200     0.200
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.089     0.099     0.094
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.097     0.092     0.089
Discrimination:       0.100     0.101     0.105
ME:                   0.050     0.046     0.042
MAE:                  0.130     0.126     0.122
MSE:                  0.050     0.048     0.047
RMSE:                 0.223     0.220     0.217
Linear Assoc:         0.219     0.232     0.249
Skill:               -0.061    -0.034    -0.006

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  2000
Start:              1/1/00
End:               12/31/00
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          366       366       366
Event Days:              14        14        14
Mean (f):             0.080     0.078     0.075
Mean (x):             0.038     0.038     0.038
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.092     0.087     0.082
Std Dev (x):          0.192     0.192     0.192
Std Dev (f-x):        0.192     0.196     0.203
Mean (f|x=1):         0.189     0.154     0.108
Mean (f|x=0):         0.076     0.075     0.074
Median (f|x=1):       0.150     0.100     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.139     0.134     0.072
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.088     0.083     0.082
Discrimination:       0.113     0.080     0.034
ME:                   0.042     0.039     0.037
MAE:                  0.104     0.104     0.105
MSE:                  0.039     0.040     0.042
RMSE:                 0.197     0.200     0.206
Linear Assoc:         0.236     0.176     0.080
Skill:               -0.052    -0.088    -0.151

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1999
Start:              1/1/99
End:               12/31/99
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               4         4         4
Mean (f):             0.065     0.063     0.061
Mean (x):             0.011     0.011     0.011
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.075     0.075     0.075
Std Dev (x):          0.104     0.104     0.104
Std Dev (f-x):        0.119     0.126     0.126
Mean (f|x=1):         0.175     0.087     0.087
Mean (f|x=0):         0.064     0.063     0.061
Median (f|x=1):       0.150     0.100     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.155     0.048     0.048
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.074     0.075     0.075
Discrimination:       0.111     0.025     0.027
ME:                   0.054     0.052     0.050
MAE:                  0.072     0.072     0.070
MSE:                  0.017     0.019     0.018
RMSE:                 0.130     0.136     0.136
Linear Assoc:         0.154     0.035     0.037
Skill:               -0.567    -0.717    -0.696

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1998
Start:              1/1/98
End:               12/31/98
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              12        12        12
Mean (f):             0.052     0.049     0.045
Mean (x):             0.033     0.033     0.033
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.079     0.076     0.071
Std Dev (x):          0.179     0.179     0.179
Std Dev (f-x):        0.181     0.187     0.185
Mean (f|x=1):         0.131     0.090     0.083
Mean (f|x=0):         0.049     0.048     0.044
Median (f|x=1):       0.100     0.050     0.050
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.103     0.093     0.091
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.077     0.075     0.070
Discrimination:       0.082     0.042     0.039
ME:                   0.019     0.016     0.012
MAE:                  0.076     0.076     0.072
MSE:                  0.033     0.035     0.034
RMSE:                 0.182     0.188     0.186
Linear Assoc:         0.184     0.099     0.098
Skill:               -0.044    -0.106    -0.083

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1997
Start:              1/1/97
End:               12/31/97
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               3         3         3
Mean (f):             0.016     0.016     0.017
Mean (x):             0.008     0.008     0.008
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.027     0.027     0.027
Std Dev (x):          0.090     0.090     0.090
Std Dev (f-x):        0.082     0.087     0.083
Mean (f|x=1):         0.150     0.093     0.137
Mean (f|x=0):         0.015     0.016     0.016
Median (f|x=1):       0.100     0.020     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.132     0.136     0.148
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.022     0.024     0.022
Discrimination:       0.135     0.078     0.121
ME:                   0.008     0.008     0.008
MAE:                  0.022     0.023     0.023
MSE:                  0.007     0.008     0.007
RMSE:                 0.082     0.088     0.084
Linear Assoc:         0.454     0.262     0.405
Skill:                0.174     0.059     0.144

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1996
Start:              1/1/96
End:               12/31/96
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          366       366       366
Event Days:               1         1         1
Mean (f):             0.011     0.011     0.011
Mean (x):             0.003     0.003     0.003
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.010     0.007     0.005
Std Dev (x):          0.052     0.052     0.052
Std Dev (f-x):        0.053     0.053     0.053
Mean (f|x=1):         0.010     0.010     0.010
Mean (f|x=0):         0.011     0.011     0.011
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.010     0.007     0.005
Discrimination:      -0.001    -0.001    -0.001
ME:                   0.009     0.008     0.008
MAE:                  0.014     0.014     0.013
MSE:                  0.003     0.003     0.003
RMSE:                 0.054     0.053     0.053
Linear Assoc:        -0.007    -0.008    -0.007
Skill:               -0.069    -0.049    -0.036

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1995
Start:              1/1/95
End:               12/31/95
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               0         0         0
Mean (f):             0.010     0.010     0.010
Mean (x):             0.000     0.000     0.000
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.005     0.002     0.000
Std Dev (x):          0.000     0.000     0.000
Std Dev (f-x):        0.005     0.002     0.000
Mean (f|x=1):        -99999    -99999    -99999
Mean (f|x=0):         0.010     0.010     0.010
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.005     0.002     0.000
Discrimination:      -99999    -99999    -99999
ME:                   0.010     0.010     0.010
MAE:                  0.010     0.010     0.010
MSE:                  0.000     0.000     0.000
RMSE:                 0.012     0.010     0.010
Linear Assoc:        -99999    -99999    -99999
Skill:               -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1994
Start:              1/1/94
End:               12/31/94
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               0         0         0
Mean (f):             0.013     0.013     0.013
Mean (x):             0.000     0.000     0.000
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.013     0.013     0.013
Std Dev (x):          0.000     0.000     0.000
Std Dev (f-x):        0.013     0.013     0.013
Mean (f|x=1):        -99999    -99999    -99999
Mean (f|x=0):         0.013     0.013     0.013
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.013     0.013     0.013
Discrimination:      -99999    -99999    -99999
ME:                   0.013     0.013     0.013
MAE:                  0.013     0.013     0.013
MSE:                  0.000     0.000     0.000
RMSE:                 0.018     0.018     0.019
Linear Assoc:        -99999    -99999    -99999
Skill:               -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1993
Start:              1/1/93
End:               12/31/93
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               0         0         0
Mean (f):             0.030     0.030     0.028
Mean (x):             0.000     0.000     0.000
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.042     0.041     0.040
Std Dev (x):          0.000     0.000     0.000
Std Dev (f-x):        0.042     0.041     0.040
Mean (f|x=1):        -99999    -99999    -99999
Mean (f|x=0):         0.030     0.030     0.028
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.042     0.041     0.040
Discrimination:      -99999    -99999    -99999
ME:                   0.030     0.030     0.028
MAE:                  0.030     0.030     0.028
MSE:                  0.003     0.003     0.002
RMSE:                 0.051     0.051     0.048
Linear Assoc:        -99999    -99999    -99999
Skill:               -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1992
Start:              1/1/92
End:               12/31/92
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          366       366       366
Event Days:               9         9         9
Mean (f):             0.048     0.046     0.041
Mean (x):             0.025     0.025     0.025
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.061     0.057     0.050
Std Dev (x):          0.155     0.155     0.155
Std Dev (f-x):        0.162     0.164     0.162
Mean (f|x=1):         0.079     0.054     0.050
Mean (f|x=0):         0.047     0.045     0.041
Median (f|x=1):       0.050     0.050     0.010
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.055     0.062     0.064
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.061     0.057     0.050
Discrimination:       0.032     0.009     0.009
ME:                   0.024     0.021     0.016
MAE:                  0.069     0.067     0.063
MSE:                  0.027     0.027     0.026
RMSE:                 0.163     0.165     0.162
Linear Assoc:         0.081     0.025     0.029
Skill:               -0.113    -0.136    -0.098

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1991
Start:              1/1/91
End:               12/31/91
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              48        48        48
Mean (f):             0.154     0.144     0.135
Mean (x):             0.132     0.132     0.132
Median (f):           0.100     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.157     0.154     0.154
Std Dev (x):          0.338     0.338     0.338
Std Dev (f-x):        0.331     0.333     0.339
Mean (f|x=1):         0.266     0.248     0.223
Mean (f|x=0):         0.137     0.128     0.122
Median (f|x=1):       0.300     0.250     0.150
Median (f|x=0):       0.100     0.100     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.176     0.196     0.211
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.147     0.140     0.139
Discrimination:       0.129     0.120     0.101
ME:                   0.022     0.012     0.004
MAE:                  0.215     0.210     0.208
MSE:                  0.110     0.111     0.115
RMSE:                 0.331     0.333     0.339
Linear Assoc:         0.278     0.264     0.222
Skill:                0.038     0.032    -0.005

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1990
Start:              1/1/90
End:               12/31/90
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              15        15        15
Mean (f):             0.087     0.083     0.078
Mean (x):             0.041     0.041     0.041
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.099     0.097     0.093
Std Dev (x):          0.199     0.199     0.199
Std Dev (f-x):        0.195     0.207     0.211
Mean (f|x=1):         0.225     0.157     0.125
Mean (f|x=0):         0.081     0.080     0.076
Median (f|x=1):       0.200     0.100     0.100
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.169     0.144     0.143
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.090     0.093     0.090
Discrimination:       0.144     0.078     0.049
ME:                   0.046     0.042     0.037
MAE:                  0.110     0.111     0.109
MSE:                  0.040     0.044     0.046
RMSE:                 0.200     0.211     0.214
Linear Assoc:         0.290     0.159     0.105
Skill:               -0.013    -0.127    -0.157

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1989
Start:               1/1/89
End:               12/31/89
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:              54        54        54
Mean (f):             0.193     0.189     0.179
Mean (x):             0.148     0.148     0.148
Median (f):           0.100     0.100     0.100
Std Dev (f):          0.187     0.185     0.178
Std Dev (x):          0.356     0.356     0.356
Std Dev (f-x):        0.333     0.339     0.342
Mean (f|x=1):         0.363     0.342     0.318
Mean (f|x=0):         0.164     0.162     0.155
Median (f|x=1):       0.300     0.300     0.300
Median (f|x=0):       0.100     0.100     0.100
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.204     0.207     0.206
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.167     0.168     0.161
Discrimination:       0.199     0.180     0.163
ME:                   0.046     0.041     0.031
MAE:                  0.234     0.235     0.233
MSE:                  0.113     0.117     0.118
RMSE:                 0.336     0.341     0.343
Linear Assoc:         0.379     0.345     0.326
Skill:                0.106     0.075     0.068

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1988
Start:               1/1/88
End:               12/31/88
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          366       366       366
Event Days:              10        10        10
Mean (f):             0.074     0.071     0.068
Mean (x):             0.027     0.027     0.027
Median (f):           0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f):          0.095     0.094     0.093
Std Dev (x):          0.163     0.163     0.163
Std Dev (f-x):        0.181     0.185     0.187
Mean (f|x=1):         0.131     0.094     0.072
Mean (f|x=0):         0.073     0.070     0.067
Median (f|x=1):       0.100     0.050     0.050
Median (f|x=0):       0.050     0.050     0.050
Std Dev (f|x=1):      0.121     0.095     0.068
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.094     0.094     0.094
Discrimination:       0.058     0.024     0.005
ME:                   0.047     0.043     0.040
MAE:                  0.095     0.093     0.091
MSE:                  0.035     0.036     0.037
RMSE:                 0.187     0.190     0.191
Linear Assoc:         0.099     0.042     0.008
Skill:               -0.309    -0.355    -0.380

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1987
Start:               1/1/87
End:               12/31/87
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          365       365       365
Event Days:               0         0         0
Mean (f):             0.014     0.014     0.013
Mean (x):             0.000     0.000     0.000
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.013     0.013     0.012
Std Dev (x):          0.000     0.000     0.000
Std Dev (f-x):        0.013     0.013     0.012
Mean (f|x=1):        -99999    -99999    -99999
Mean (f|x=0):         0.014     0.014     0.013
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.013     0.013     0.012
Discrimination:      -99999    -99999    -99999
ME:                   0.014     0.014     0.013
MAE:                  0.014     0.014     0.013
MSE:                  0.000     0.000     0.000
RMSE:                 0.019     0.018     0.018
Linear Assoc:        -99999    -99999    -99999
Skill:               -99999    -99999    -99999

Forecast Type:   Liklihood (probability) of the occurrence of an X class flare
Year:                  1986
Start:               7/1/86
End:               12/31/86
Lead Time:           Day 1     Day 2     Day 3
Total Records:          184       184       184
Event Days:               0         0         0
Mean (f):             0.012     0.012     0.012
Mean (x):             0.000     0.000     0.000
Median (f):           0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f):          0.011     0.012     0.010
Std Dev (x):          0.000     0.000     0.000
Std Dev (f-x):        0.011     0.012     0.010
Mean (f|x=1):        -99999    -99999    -99999
Mean (f|x=0):         0.012     0.012     0.012
Median (f|x=1):      -99999    -99999    -99999
Median (f|x=0):       0.010     0.010     0.010
Std Dev (f|x=1):     -99999    -99999    -99999
Std Dev (f|x=0):      0.011     0.012     0.010
Discrimination:      -99999    -99999    -99999
ME:                   0.012     0.012     0.012
MAE:                  0.012     0.012     0.012
MSE:                  0.000     0.000     0.000
RMSE:                 0.016     0.017     0.015
Linear Assoc:        -99999    -99999    -99999
Skill:               -99999    -99999    -99999