INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
915 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                      
SURFACE AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWING MUCH OF THE                 
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE TROF EXITING                   
THE REGION WITH THE DISTRICT NOW UNDER A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.               
THIS FLOW IS NOW GIVING US THE USUAL CLOUDS BANKING UP ON THE                   
SOUTH END AND EAST SIDE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.                      
WINDS IN THE DESERTS CONTINUE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY AND BASED ON                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS AND MESO-SCALE MODEL ANALYSIS...               
WILL EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE REST OF                   
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE DESERTS AS                
CURRENT WORDING STILL VALID. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO                   
RETURNS FROM THE CLOUDS ON THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AT 9 PM.                 
WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TO REMOVE THE              
MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP.                                                      
MOLINA                                                                          
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
925 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                      
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DIGGING UPPER TROF OVER THE SE               
U.S. AND ANOTHER UPPER TROF OVER THE W GULF...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK              
WAVE OVER THE CENT GULF. 00Z SOUNDING CONTINUED RELATIVELY STABLE               
AND DRY WITH PW JUST UNDER 1 INCH AND A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. A             
VERY COMFORTABLE EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S AND RELATIVELY             
LOW HUMIDITY. BEGINNINGS OF A NE SURGE NOW APPEAR TO BE NEAR                    
ORLANDO...MOVING ESE TOWARD THE FA.                                             
--TONIGHT---                                                                    
CLOUDS DIDN'T FORM AT THE BASE OF THE INVERSION LIKE EXPECTED LAST              
NIGHT...SO WILL NOT GO FOR IT TONIGHT. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SEEMS OK             
FOR NOW. CIRRUS OVER S 1/2 OF FA...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR UPDATE. WILL              
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.                                                            
--MARINE--                                                                      
CURRENT OBS INDICATE SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF...AND MARGINAL               
SCEC OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF TPA BAY. THE RUC AND MESO ETA SHOW                 
MARGINAL SCA (20+KTS) OVER THE GULF...AND SCEC OVER TPA BAY TONIGHT.            
THUS...WILL LOWER TO SCEC FOR TPA BAY...AND KEEP MARGINAL SCA OVER              
THE E GULF. SURGE COULD CAUSE BRIEF SCA OVER THE BAY.                           
.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT  BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE                   
       RIVER OUT TO 60 NM.                                                      
    ...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TONIGHT TAMPA BAY.                          
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR HIGH                
       DISPERSION.                                                              
MORALES                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
950 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                      
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN CO AND WY AS SEEN ON THE WATER               
VAPOR CHANNEL...HAS KICKED OFF CONVECTION IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.            
MOST OF THE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR PRECIP TO FORM ON AND                
LITTLE SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH...CONSIDERED REMOVING POPS FOR            
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL INCREASE                   
MOISTURE AND RUC40 SHOWS THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTING EAST. THERE MAY             
BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHCENTRAL              
KS NEAR THE NEB STATE LINE WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. WILL LEAVE               
POP FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW. MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK ON TRACK.                
.TOP...NONE                                                                     
WOLTERS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1000 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                     
CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.  THIS EVENING'S RUC40 MODEL RUN AND                 
EARLIER 18Z MESO ETA RUN...WERE BOTH CONSISTENT WITH THEIR TEMP                 
FCST AND SFC WND FCST OVNGT. BOTH SUGGESTIVE OF LIGHT EAST WNDS                 
EASTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) AND TEMPS LOWER TO MID 30S.  SO SOME                 
FROST SEEMS A GOOD BET.                                                         
FURTHER WEST ...JUST A TAD MORE SFC GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES                   
BOTTOMING OUT A HAIR ABOVE ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE              
TO MENTION PATCHY FROST THOSE LOCATIONS OVNGNT... WITH TEMPS 35 TO              
40 RANGE.                                                                       
OTHERWISE...ALL GUIDE SIGNALLING A WARMUP ON TAP FOR THE RMNDR OF               
THE WORK-WEEK.                                                                  
.SDF...FROST ADVISORY OVERNIGHT EASTERN ONE HALF ... OR SO ...                  
       OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                    
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE TEMPS.                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WRN LAKES UNDER NW FLOW ON                
BACK SIDE OF CNTRL CONUS RDG. VIS/IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES             
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SFC...HI PRES WAS LOCATED OVER OH RESULTING             
IN SSW FLOW AND WAA INTO UPR MI. MARINE LYR/FRONT HAS KEPT WINDS                
BACKED TO THE SE OVER THE LK SUPERIOR AND E AT KCMX. 02Z TEMPS WERE             
GENERALLY MID 50S TO 60 OVER MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF               
THE CWA WITH SRLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING TEMPS AT IWD AND MQT.                 
COOLER AIR WITH READINGS IN THE 40S PREVAILED FARTHER EAST AND NEAR             
LK MI. PRES GRADIENT FCST TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH                 
BNDRY LYR WINDS FROM 20-25 KT (KMQT VAD WND PRFL ALREADY SHOWED                 
35KTS S WIND AT 2-3K FT) PROVIDING ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM             
DROPPING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR. SO...WL            
NUDGE TEMPS UP A BIT FOR AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARMING PERSISTS            
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.                               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR                                             
230 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                      
...DRY WITH A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...                           
MODELS AGREE IN LIFTING THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OUT OF THE             
PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE N ROCKIES/N HI PLAINS TONIGHT & WEDNESDAY. AS           
IT DOES...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OFFSHORE AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL               
WARM ADVECTION STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE BRINGING AN END TO THE                 
INSTABILITY SHOWERS TONIGHT. 18Z MESOETA AND RUC LI'S & 700MB 300K              
THETA-E RIDGE SUPPORTS KEEPING ISOLATED EVENING THUNDER IN FROM                 
CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS EASTWARD. ONE LONE STRIKE OVER W JACKSON                 
COUNTY AT 2130Z THIS AFTERNOON CONFIRMS ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.                   
MESOETA TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS & AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT BY              
THE CURRENT BROKEN CLOUD DECK ARGUE FOR KEEPING SKIES M CLOUDY OVER             
THE W VALLEYS OF OREGON TONIGHT (UMPQUA AND ROGUE BASIN).                       
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING &               
700-500MB WARMING STABILIZE THE PROFILE.                                        
ON WEDNESDAY...MORNING CLOUDS OVER THE W VALLEYS GIVE WAY TO CLEARING           
AS THE 500MB UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE COAST. SEVERAL DEGREES             
OF MID-LEVEL WARMING AND MORE SUNSHINE ARGUE FOR MAX TEMPS INLAND               
ROUGHLY 10F WARMER THAN TUESDAY. DO PREFER THE WARMER NGM MOS TEMPS             
(OVER THE COOLER AVN MOS)...WITH THE ETA THERMAL FIELDS (850-700MB              
THICKNESSES) SUPPORTING THIS LEANING. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND                 
RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON CUMULUS, ESP OVER THE MTNS.           
BUT NO SHOWERS.                                                                 
CONTINUED WARMING AND DRY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES THE             
FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WEST OF THE              
CASCADES WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. BY              
FRIDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE SENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE               
FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE W OF THE CASCADES...WITH             
INCREASING CLOUDS EAST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER N CALIFORNIA.  WOLF             
EXTENDED...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA             
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE           
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK INLAND                        
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.  NEAR                
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS            
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.            
WILL PUT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SISKIYOU COUNTY FOR SUNDAY AS             
PER COORDINATION WITH CALIFORNIA...AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC            
ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  A WARM FRONT MOVING UP FROM THE                
SOUTH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH ONLY MINOR             
(LESS 12HR) TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MRF/UKMO/ECMWF MODELS.               
THE US AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE OPERATION MRF              
SOLUTION IS A GOOD COMPROMISE.                                                  
.MFR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   or                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                      
CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN CENTER ON WINDS AND CONVECTIVE            
POTENTIAL.  ETA AND AVN ONCE AGAIN NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN               
TERMS OF EVOLUTION OF UPPER WAVE...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES             
NOW TOWARD LATER IN THE WAVE EVOLUTION AS UPPER WAVE DAMPENS OUT.               
ETA AND AVN SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED BACK TOWARD TAKING UPPER WAVE                
FURTHER SOUTH AS IT WEAKENS SIMILAR TO CANADIAN SOLUTION.  ETA                  
LOOKING MORE LIKE ECMWF IN TERMS OF UPPER WAVE STRUCTURE BY LATE                
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  WILL TREND TOWARD ETA FOR THIS FORECAST.              
18Z RUC SHOWING 35-40 KNOT 925 HPA WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY               
EVENING HOURS.  GIVEN MOST AREAS ARE MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT               
THE PRESENT TIME...WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORY INTO EARLY EVENING                 
HOURS.  WILL CUT OFF ADVISORY AT 00Z ACROSS WESTERN CWA AS STRONGEST            
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CWA.  BY            
LATE EVENING IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH                 
ENOUGH TO ALLOW EASTERN CWA TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL             
EXTEND WIND ADVISORY IN EASTERN CWA UNTIL 02Z.  LOW TEMPERATURES                
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 50S WITH STRONG SOUTH            
WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.                                             
CONCERN THEN WILL BE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO                 
WEDNESDAY.  UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGGED BY ETA TO QUICKLY ACQUIRE                  
NEGATIVELY TILTED STRUCTURE BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH 300-200 HPA               
UPPER DIVERGENCE WORKING INTO WESTERN CWA.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE             
ALSO STEADILY COME UP ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH KPIR               
AND KMBG REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S IN 20Z SURFACE                   
OBSERVATIONS.  MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NOTED IN ETA SOLUTION IN                
ABOUT 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN CWA IS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE                
SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 300-400 J/KG IN KPIR MESOETA                
FORECAST SOUNDING.  AS THIS AREA OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKS              
EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT BETTER CHANCE OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA.  LIMITING FACTOR            
DEFINITELY REMAINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  BY 18Z BEGIN TO SEE                     
OCCLUSION PROCESS IN FULL FORCE WITH VERTICALLY STACKED HEIGHT                  
MINIMUM.  LONG ADVERTISED DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN BEHIND             
OCCLUDED TYPE BOUNDARY EARLY TOMORROW ACROSS WESTERN CWA AND WORKS              
INTO KABR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED WINDOW              
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA ON                 
WEDNESDAY DESPITE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  RIGHT NOW BEST                  
PROSPECTS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE IN FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MAX OUT.                         
SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME               
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION.  ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW                
STRONG UPPER DEFORMATION WHICH WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN WAVE LATE                    
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT ETA HAS CONVERGED TOWARD CANADIAN                 
SOLUTION OF KEEPING UPPER WAVE FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUS RUNS.                
GIVEN THIS...WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA             
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                          
THANKS TO KFSD...KBIS...AND KFGF FOR COORDINATION. MARSILI                      
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                         
MEDIUM RANGE SHOWING GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WEAK                 
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO WESTERN U.S. TROF BY            
LATE SUNDAY. ECMWF A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH             
UKMET SHOWING A MORE ZONAL SOLUTION. AVN AND CANADIAN AGREE FAIRLY              
WELL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BY KEEPING THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE            
SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.                       
AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WESTERN U.S. TROF SLIDES EAST LATE SUNDAY              
LOOK FOR INCREASING LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH                      
INCREASING WINDS AND TEMPS. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE              
MID 70S SHOULD RISE INTO THE 70 FOR THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY.                
WITH UPPER TROF SLIDING OVER THE REGION MONDAY WILL CONTINUE CHANCE             
FOR PCPN FOR MONDAY AND DRAG IT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS UPPER TROF              
IS SLOW TO SHIFT EAST. TEMPS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY WITH               
LOWS A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT HIGHS A BIT LESS THAN NORMAL.                 
FAUCETTE                                                                        
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY WESTERN CWA THROUGH 00Z                                    
       WIND ADVISORY EASTERN CWA THROUGH 02Z                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1145 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2002                                                     
AT 16Z...WESTERN CWA MEETING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH FAR                  
EASTERN CWA APPROACHING THIS CATEGORY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                 
MIXING UP TO ABOUT 875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON.  925 HPA WINDS OFF THE               
RUC IN 35-40 KNOT RANGE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 00Z...AND LARGE               
PART OF MAGNITUDE WILL NOT HAVE DIFFICULT TIME REACHING SURFACE IN              
WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT.  MID CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN CWA EARLIER                  
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED                
THIS AFTERNOON AND CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE IN THIS RESPECT.                 
TEMPERATURES ALSO APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK.  AN UPDATE IS NOT PLANNED              
AT THIS TIME.  RUC DATA AND 12Z MESOETA ALSO SUGGEST PERHAPS WIND               
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A TIME THIS                                
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY              
GETS GOING.  QUESTION WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS IS HOW EFFICIENTLY WINDS             
WILL BE MIXED DOWN AS GO INTO LATE THIS EVENING.                                
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA TODAY.                                          
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
515 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST FOUR                      
PERIODS...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY ON FRIDAY...                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE             
EAST ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN                
HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE             
AS WINDS AT MOST ALL REPORTING STATIONS HAVE LOWERED TO BELOW WIND              
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  RUC H85 WINDS ALSO DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY BY THE             
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE            
BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS              
THE CWA TODAY...BUT ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST GUSTS                 
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 40 MPH.  WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE.              
OTHERWISE...A BIT OF DISCREPANCY IN THE MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES             
BUT WILL WEIGH TO THE WARM SIDE (MID-UPPER 70S) CONSIDERING ALMOST              
FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO MODERATE WINDS.            
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS            
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE             
MID 60S SOUTH FOR THURSDAY/S HIGHS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW             
NORMAL FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.                       
THIS STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECEDE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE            
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT               
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING.  ISOLATED RAIN                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AFTER                
MIDNIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  CLOUDS              
WILL THICKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH ADEQUATE                  
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
NORTHWEST.  EMBEDDED ELEVATED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO BE             
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE              
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS               
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  LET THE EXTENDED RIDE WITH A CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE              
WESTERN CONUS.  TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AS WELL AHEAD OF THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM.                                                                    
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
44                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
305 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.                          
SYNOPSIS -- EARLY MORNING MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND LAST                     
EVENING'S UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOW A CLOSED, MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION               
CENTERED OVER NWRN WY WITH DOWNSTREAM DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DAKOTAS               
AND NEB.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS, RICHER MOISTURE RETURN AT 850MB WAS                
SITUATED ALONG A OUN-LBF-UNR-GGW AXIS, JUXTAPOSITIONED UNDER STEEP              
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PER 00Z/22 HIGH PLAINS SOUNDINGS.  AT THE                
SURFACE, THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WY CIRCULATION             
WAS LOCATED OVER NERN MT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT/DRY TROUGH THAT              
EXTENDED SWD TO A SECONDARY LOW OVER ERN CO.  TO THE E OF THIS                  
FRONTAL SYSTEM, PLAN VIEW PROFILER DATA INDICATED A 60-70 KT                    
LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH NEB.                                  
FORECAST -- ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE                 
LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH 36 HRS, WITH DIFFERENCES ON THE                    
UPSTREAM 500 MB HEIGHT FIELD AND SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION                       
THEREAFTER.  IN THE SHORT TERM, OUR MAIN CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND                 
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  00Z/22 ETA AND 06Z/22 RUCII BOTH INDICATE A              
SLOW EWD SHIFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE AREA THIS                   
MORNING.  BY THIS AFTERNOON, OUR NWRN ZONES WILL FALL IN CLOSER                 
PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE/850 MB TROUGHS, EFFECTIVELY ALLOWING FOR               
SOME DECREASE IN WINDS.  THUS, WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR                
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NW AND ALL DAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE              
AREA.                                                                           
THE OTHER CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL SD, AS RECENT                     
RADAR/SATELLITE/LDS TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED SWD DEVELOPMENT INTO            
THE LOW-LEVEL JET.  BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE AGREE WITH SPC'S DAY 1                
OUTLOOK IN THAT THE ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS.             
NONETHELESS, WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF              
20-25 M/S, SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL OR                
TWO, GIVEN THE LARGE BOUNDARY-LAYER T/TD SPREADS.  WE WILL CARRY                
CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE             
WARMER NGM NUMBERS.                                                             
TONIGHT, WE WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES, WITH              
ONLY AN EVENING MENTION NW.  THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME               
SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND S.                    
PER PMDHMD REASONING, WE WILL FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ETA                   
SOLUTION ON THE HANDLING OF THE SURFACE FRONT ON THURSDAY.  THAT                
SAID, WE WILL ONLY MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES                
INTO AFTERNOON.  GOOD SYNOPTIC-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE DAKOTAS,               
SUGGESTS WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WITH THE BUILDING                
HIGH PRESSURE.                                                                  
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE ETA               
AND AVN BOTH ADVERTISE THE MOVEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE                  
AREA.  THE CWFA WILL BE IN A STABILIZED, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, SO WE            
WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.                                                      
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE NEW AVN EXTENSION SUGGEST THAT THE CWFA WILL             
REMAIN IN A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
WEEKEND.  WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS            
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING OFF TO OUR W THROUGH            
TUESDAY.  EXCEPT FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER ON TUESDAY, WE WILL KEEP              
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY.                                                      
COORDINATED WITH DSM, LBF, GID, TOP AND EAX                                     
IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS ON THE NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION FORMAT...PLEASE             
E-MAIL THEM TO W-OAX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL DAVE THEOPHILUS AT              
402-359-5166.                                                                   
.OMA...WIND ADVISORY THIS MORNING WEST OF WAYNE TO COLUMBUS                     
       LINE...AND ALL DAY FOR REMAINDER OF CWFA.                                
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1142 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                     
FCST CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE WINDS AND TEMPS.                                    
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STG SHRTWV/UPR LOW OVR LEE OF ROCKIES             
ROTATING SLOWLY EWD NUDGING AXIS OF BROAD UPR RDG SLIGHTLY EAST OF              
FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL                      
APPALACHIANS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVR SE MT. SOME WAA CLDS FM MN/NW WI             
ADVANCING TOWARD WRN UPR MI FORMING AT NOSE OF 50 KT 850 MB JET AND             
REGION OF 3-5H DIFLUENCE/305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT. EXPECT THESE CLDS              
TO THIN OUT AS THEY SPREAD EAST THIS AFT INTO FA AND INTO DRIER AIR             
OF UPR RDG AS EVIDENT FM 12Z GRB SNDG.                                          
MAGIC MIXING HEIGHT FM AREA SNDGS YESTERDAY AT 00Z LOOKS TO BE                  
AROUND 800 MB. DON'T BELIEVE THAT THIN CLDS SPREADING ACROSS FA THIS            
AFT WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THIS...SO WL KEEP GOING FCST OF              
70 TO 75 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MIXING DRY                 
ADIABATICALLY TO 800 MB PER 12Z SNDGS. MARINE LYR FM LAKE MICHIGAN              
IN SLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP INLAND TEMPS ANYWHERE FM 5-10F COOLER OVER              
ERN ZONES AND AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER ALONG THE LAKE MI SHORELINE.             
12Z GRB SNDG INDICATING WINDS TO 35 KTS WITHIN MIXED LYR SO KEEP                
HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THIS AFT...ESPECIALLY FOR FAVORED DWNSLPG             
SHORELINE AREAS ALG LAKE SUPERIOR.                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1005 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                     
A NICE DAY APPEARS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY...AS WARMING TREND JUST GETS            
STARTED TODAY.  BNA 12Z SOUNDING WITH MIXING UP TO THE 800 MB LEVEL             
GETS MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 60S OR SO.  12Z RNK SOUNDING WAS NOT                
VIEWABLE IN AWIPS.  RUC MODEL RH FIELDS AND CU RULE SHOW POSSIBLE               
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE               
THE FORECAST HAS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  OVERALL CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS            
FINE...BUT MAY DO A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT FOR HIGHS TODAY               
FOR THE NE PLATEAU GROUP AND THE SRN MTN GROUP BASED ON YESTERDAY'S             
HIGHS.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...THE FREEZE WARNING SEEMS TO HAVE WORKED OUT QUITE WELL              
BASED ON OBSERVED MIN TEMPS THIS MORNING FROM ASOS AND COOP SITES.              
ANOTHER RECORD SETTING MORNING FOR TRI CITIES REGIONAL AIRPORT!                 
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
925 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH             
UPDATED ZONES...UPDATED HWO...AND NPW TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DATA                
FROM 22/12Z KFWD RAOB...KFWS VAD PROFILE...AND RUC40 ALL SUGGEST                
30-40 KNOTS AT TOP OF BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DIURNAL                
MIXING WILL EASILY ALLOW FOR 20-30 MPH SURFACE WINDS...WITH HIGHER              
GUSTS POSSIBLE.                                                                 
65/DD                                                                           
.FWD...WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ZONES FOR REMAINDER OF TODAY.                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
345 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT INCLUDE WINDS AND CHANCES FOR                
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA.  ETA AND AVN MUCH MORE SIMILAR IN                
TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN PLAINS.             
EVEN OUT TO 36 HOURS...ETA SEEMS TO HAVE COME AROUND TO THE AVN                 
SOLUTION OF TENDING TO HOLD BACK NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WEST OF              
CWA INTO THURSDAY.  ETA/AVN SOLUTION IN TERMS OF UPPER WAVE ALSO                
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND CANADIAN.                                           
CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK BEST NORTH AND EAST OF CWA.  19Z LAPS DATA              
SHOWING BEST LOW LEVEL SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS FAR               
EASTERN CWA WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE JUST             
WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS.  EVEN ACROSS EASTERN CWA FEEL THAT                   
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH STEEPEST LOW AND MID                
LEVEL LAPSE AND LARGEST SURFACE BASED CAPES BEING QUICKLY                       
ACCOMPANIED BY DRAMATIC BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING.  LOW AND MID LEVEL               
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO NOW SHIFTING EAST OF CWA.  GIVEN CURRENT LAPS            
ANALYSIS OF FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN               
THUNDERSTORM WORDING ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.  OTHER CONCERN FOR                
THIS EVENING WILL BE WINDS.  RUC DATA SUGGESTING MAINTENANCE OF                 
30-35 KNOT 925 HPA WINDS AND DO NOT FEEL WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY               
CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER DIMINISHED MIXING AFTER SUNSET.  WILL EXTEND               
WIND ADVISORY ACROSS ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 01Z.  MID LEVEL PVA SHOULD                
PROMOTE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO REGION SO WILL GO FOR PARTLY                 
CLOUDY WORDING TONIGHT.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT MAINLY AM WINDS.  MAIN SURGE OF               
COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN WESTERN CWA IN 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME AND                   
SPREADS EASTWARD.  ETA 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6 HPA/3HR AND COLD            
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 TO 30 MPH                 
WINDS IN THE AM ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA...BEFORE DIMINISHING            
IN THE AFTERNOON.  VERY STRONG UPPER DEFORMATION FOR TOMORROW                   
AFTERNOON AS TROPOPAUSE LEVEL PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS                  
INTEGRITY.  WILL REMOVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING AND MENTION SHOWER                 
POSSIBILITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...IN CLOSER              
PROXIMITY TO UPPER DEFORMATION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AXIS.                       
UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER TIME             
FOR FROST CONCERN.  SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY WEAKENS WITH              
COLD LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN PLACE.  FEEL THAT FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY              
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST            
CWA.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH GENERAL MODEL                     
CONSENSUS TO TAKE WEAK SHORT WAVE NORTH OF CWA FROM FRIDAY INTO                 
SATURDAY.  AVN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE               
ETA WITH THIS WAVE...BUT IMPACT ON CWA SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY              
WEAK UPPER FORCING.                                                             
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                         
MEDIUM RANGE MODULES STILL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...IN THE BROAD                  
SENSE. RIDGING CONTS TO BREAK DOWN WITH SW FLOW AT 5H AND 7H THROUGH            
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MINOR WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST                 
WHILE A SFC TROF APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY               
WILL STILL BE DRY WITH PLEASANT TEMPS. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATER ON             
SUNDAY WITH GOOD MOISTURE FEED RESULTING FROM GULF BEING OPEN. BY               
MONDAY DWPTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH GOOD LOLVL JET              
SETTING UP. WITH MAIN SFC CONVERGENCE LINE THROUGH OUR CWA ON                   
MONDAY...APPEARS THAT CHANCE OF THUNDER STILL EXISTS...SO WILL LEAVE            
THAT ALONE. FOR TUESDAY...SFC TROF PUSHES SLOWLY EAST...ALLOWING                
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. CANADIAN/ECMWF AND AVN ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL            
AGREE TO THIS. WILL END PCPN BY 18Z IN IFPS ON TUESDAY WITH DECREASE            
IN CLOUD COVER. BY WEDNESDAY BUILDING RIDGE TAKES OVER BRINGING DRY             
CONDS TO WARMING TEMPS BACK TO REGION. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM                      
REASONABLE AND GENERALLY FOLLLOWED.                                             
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 01Z.                                      
MARSILI/HINTZ                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN...CORRECTED     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1140 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                     
TWO CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE WINDS AND CONVECTION CHANCES.  RUC              
DATA SHOWING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING RAPIDLY ACROSS CWA                
THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WORKS EASTWARD.  THE 15Z             
RUC STILL WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST 925 HPA WINDS OF 35-40 KNOTS DURING            
THE AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH BORDERLINE ADVISORY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS              
AFTERNOON...HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE                
EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKING A LITTLE LESS PROMISING            
AS TIME GOES ON.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY                   
BOTTOMING OUT WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION.  SURFACE DEW POINTS             
IN KMBG AND KPIR NOW IN THE LOW AND MID 30S WITH EVEN LOWER                     
DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM.  EVEN WITH UPPER SUPPORT...THIS SHOULD LIMIT                
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES CONTINUING IN             
FAR EASTERN CWA.                                                                
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
240 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM...PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ACROSS TEXAS THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW             
PRESSURE OVER WEST TX. A PACIFIC FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL            
U.S. INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE                   
WESTERN U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC 1000-500MB STREAMLINE                   
ANALYSIS INDICATED MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG THE                
BACKSIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER                 
VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH...700MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH TX HAS SHIFTED                   
EASTWARD ALLOWING A FEW LINES OF CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN GULF              
OF MEXICO TO REACH THE CWA. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL             
TX WITH RETURN FLOW. CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST THURSDAY            
ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH OVER               
THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WEAKENS.                
WEAKNESS IN THE 700MB RIDGE OVER THE LOWER TX COAST MAY ALLOW                   
SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO REACH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA              
SO WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW.                            
OTHERWISE...NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH ONSHORE FLOW THE                
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO...BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE               
AFTERNOON WITH NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET MIXING DOWN.                             
EXTENDED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY NOT EXPECTED              
TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING.             
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO NORTH TX SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY              
ALONG THE FRONT. 700MB RIDGING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO THE LOWER             
RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEARS TO KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION. 700MB                    
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM/WEST TX MAY INITIATE CONVECTION                
OVER SOUTHWEST TX ALONG THE DRYLINE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
TSTMS FOR FAR WEST PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX MEMORIAL DAY AND                   
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                            
.MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN COMBO WITH RETURN MOISTURE              
FEED WILL MERIT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THURSDAY MORNING SHOWERS                
OFFSHORE. WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS ALSO ALLOWED SHOWERS TO MAKE IT               
INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING...BUT THE SHOWERS WERE                   
SHALLOW AND PRODUCED MAINLY SPRINKLES...SO LOOKING FOR PRETTY MUCH              
THE SAME SCENARIO TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL KEEP THE SCA UP            
FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS OBS ARE NEAR 20              
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. MODERATE WINDS AND 5 FEET SEAS PREVAIL            
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL KEEP SCEC WORDING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK             
UP OFFSHORE WITH A LLJ. SEAS COULD THEN BUILD A FOOT OR SO TO NEAR              
SCA HEIGHT BY MORNING. THE MESOETA IS BACKING OFF FROM THE STRONGER             
WINDS IT FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE PREVIOUSLY. WWIII MODEL NOT EVEN                 
CALLING FOR SCA SEAS OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...WITH THE HIGHER SEAS                
PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE EAST GULF NOT REALLY MAKING IT OVER TO                
THIS SIDE OF THE BASIN. THUS...SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WILL             
LIKELY BE LOW END TO MARGINAL IN THIS FORECAST.                                 
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
BRO BB 072 088/072 089/074 00/00/00/00/00                                       
HRL BB 071 090/071 091/073 00/00/00/00/00                                       
MFE BB 071 092/071 093/073 00/00/00/00/00                                       
RGC BB 069 094/069 095/071 00/00/00/00/00                                       
SPI BB 076 084/076 084/076 00/10/00/10/00                                       
SYNOPTIC...61/MARINE-AVIATION-MESO...54                                         
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...SCA GMZ130.                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
217 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2002                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE FOR WINDS/STORMS THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FRONTAL           
PASSAGE AND BRIEF MOISTURE RETURN...THEN SATURDAYS POSSIBLE RAIN.               
WATER VAPOR DEPICTING THE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER                  
DAKOTA/MT BORDER AT 18Z WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AT KUNR OF                      
180MB/12HR.  THIS MONSTER IS SHIFTING EAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS             
NOW AT THE TROUGH BASE OR EAST OF IT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE                   
RETURNED TO 50+F INTO ND AHEAD OF DRYLINE FROM KJMS-KABR-KHLC                   
KS. MIDDLE 50S NOT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH SBCAPES NOW ABOUT 800J/KG ON              
THIS THIN AXIS AHEAD OF FRONT PER RUC. SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE OVER            
MUCH OF THIS REGION HOWEVER PER RUC AND 12Z RAOB DATA. STRATOCU                 
FILLING IN WHERE LCL IS LOWER THAN CAP AND THIS IS NEARLY OVERCAST.             
12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST WITH               
THE AVN SLOWER WITH FROPA ACROSS AREA. THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE               
WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO WITH SLOWER TIMING. BOTH MODELS             
CONVECT ALONG FRONT IN MN/IA THIS EVENING WITH MARGINAL CAPES AROUND            
1000 J/KG.  WITH STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE...BELIEVE TSRA CHANCES WILL            
BE ALONG FRONT WITH WEAK CONVECTION DYING AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM            
THIN SURFACE MOISTURE RIBBON AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.  WILL KEEP                
CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. NO THREAT FOR SEVERE.                                      
THUS FAR WINDS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FORECAST PREVIOUSLY AND ALTHOUGH              
LOW-LEVEL NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE STRONG...WITH CAPPING AND NOT GOOD             
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP MIXING TONIGHT...WILL EXPIRE ADVISORY IN WI.                
MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO THINK A BIT OF DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR BEFORE             
CLOUDS MOVE IN.  WILL MONITOR WIND SPEEDS OVER IA/MN AND I MAY KEEP             
THE SERN MN/NERN IA WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT BASED ON LATE AFTERNOON               
REPORTS. CLOUDS CURRENTLY OUT WEST SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD WITH FRONT.            
THIS AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A WARM OVERNIGHT...5-7F ABOVE NGM                  
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA.  AS LOW MOVES                   
EAST...IT WILL FILL/WEAKEN SO WINDS WILL BE MORE TAME THURSDAY BUT              
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD CAPES OF 1000J/KG WITH LATE                
FROPA EXPECTED THERE.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD CAUSE A PROBLEM BY                
LIMITING HEATING.  IN ANY CASE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF TSRA GOING AND             
TIME FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW. WARMEST HIGHS WILL BE SWRN WI.                     
SCT CLOUDS AND STABLE WEATHER FRIDAY LEADS TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SATURDAY.  THIS COULD SPREAD RAIN INTO                   
SOUTHERN WI/NERN IA FOR SATURDAY.  HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THAT                     
SOLUTION IN PACKAGE WITH CLOUDS/CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NEXT               
RAIN CHANCE THEN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY.                                         
KDMX/KMPX COORDINATION ON WIND ADVISORY. THANK YOU.                             
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi