EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
930 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTIES              
WITH SOME HEAVIER CONVECTION OFFSHORE THE CAPE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING               
SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE CONVECTION HAS LARGELY ENDED OVER THE                      
REGION...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT            
IS CONVECTION MOVING ONSHORE WEST COAST THANKS TO TAIL END OF                   
SHORTWAVE OVER GA. 18Z MESOETA SUGGESTS S/W WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO             
THE EAST AND NOT HAVE ENOUGH PUNCH TO DROP SOUTH INTO OUR CWA. FOR              
THIS REASON...ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST               
SECTIONS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. WILL WAIT ANOTHER HOUR OR SO TO                 
UPDATE ZONES AND CONSIDER KEEPING SMALL POPS IN INTERIOR SECTIONS               
UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                
MARINE...WINDS JUST N OF FLAGLER ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN S OF            
FLAGLER. SHORT RANGE MDLS MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW PRES GRAD TO NOT TIGHTEN            
SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS TO THE S RETREATS AS SHRT             
WVS RIPPLE THRU MID LEVEL FLOW. NO CHGS PLANNED FOR FCST.                       
KELLY/BLOTTMAN                                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 290109  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
843 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...WSR-88D SHOWS SEVERAL WKNG BANDS OF LGT-MDT SHOWERS ACRS            
INTERIOR FL...WITH MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION FM THE IMMEDIATE                   
COASTLINES OF CITRUS/LEVY COS AND IN A LINE ACRS THE CNTL COASTAL               
WATERS.  SE U.S. SATL LOOPS SHOW PULSING CONVECTION ACS SRN AND ERN             
GA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO H50 S/W SLIDING SSE THRU THE AREA.  A                
MORE POTENT MCS WAS OVER SRN KY AND TN WITH TAIL MOVING QUICKLY INTO            
ERN AL.  THIS MCS ALSO CARRIES A FAIRLY DECENT H50 S/W WITH IT.                 
THE QUESTION OF THE EVENING IS HOW MUCH WILL THESE MCS'S AND ASSOCD             
H50 S/W'S HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY DROP SSE IN THE MEAN FLOW?                      
AND...WILL DIURNAL TRENDS KEEP THEIR EFFECTS TO JUST CLDS...OR IS               
ANOTHER FLARE-UP OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION PSBL?                                 
TO ANSWER...I LIKE THE RUC/MESO ETA SOLN WHICH MAINTAINS THE SE GA              
IMPULSE (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MORE SYNOPTIC THAN MESOSCALE) WHILE                
BLENDING THE CONVECTIVE TAIL OF THE IMPULSE IN AL WITH IT.  BY DAWN             
THE IMPULSE IS MORE STRUNG OUT IN A NE-SW CONFIGURATION AFFECTING               
THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA.                                                        
SINCE THE ACTION FM THE SE GA IMPULSE IS RELEGATED TO MAINLY SHWRS              
ATTM BLV THIS WILL BE THE TREND OVERNIGHT ACRS THE N.  SFC FLOW IS              
TURNING A BIT MORE SW ACRS THE NRN CWFA...AND THIS MAY ASSIST THE               
IMPULSE IN PRODUCING A FEW TSTMS NEAR THE COAST TWDS DAWN.                      
FARTHER S...BLV MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIE BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT WITH                 
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLDS PREFER CONS CLDNS OVER PCLDY.  WILL HOLD OFF              
ON ZONE ISSUANCE UNTIL 930 BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR/SATL TRENDS WRT            
MENTION OF PCPN ACRS THE S AND S CNTL ZONES.                                    
PERSISTENCE TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                                    
FOR TUE...CONTINUED MID LVL NW FLOW AND HIGH-LVL NNE FLOW ONE MORE              
DAY WITH WK...GENLY SSW FLOW NEAR THE SFC.  THE MID LVL FLOW WILL               
CONTINUE TO SHOVE GARBAGE CLDS INTO THE CWFA...SO PERHAPS A BIT MORE            
PESSIMISTIC ON CLDS (PERSISTENCE AGAIN) FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.              
MARINE:  SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST OVERNIGHT IT'LL BE MAINLY OVER               
THE GULF.  SUGG "SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS" ENTR WATERS.  WINDS N OF                
TARPON WILL BE SW 10 KT OFFSHORE...5-10 KT NEAR SHORE.  ELSW...S                
WINDS 5-10 KT OFSHR AND VRBL NEARSHORE.                                         
THERE IS HOPE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR MORE TROPICAL CONDS TO DVLP BY            
LATE WK INTO THE 4TH OF JULY WKND.  MRF IS FCSTG A BIG HEAT WAVE FOR            
THE OHIO VLY AND ON TO THE ERN U.S...A RESULT OF BROAD WSW FLOW                 
AROUND STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH.  CLIMATOLOGICALLY...STRONG                   
BERMUDA HIGHS KEEP FL IN A "CLEAN" AIR MASS WITH MORE TOLERABLE                 
TEMPS AND SE TO E FLOW.                                                         
STAY TUNED.                                                                     
ZONE UPDATES AVBL AROUND 930 PM.                                                
GOLDSMITH                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 290040  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
315 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
TODAYS MODEL RUN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON FINE SCALE FEATURE PLACEMENT              
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER FORECAST AREA.                                
THE RUC HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODEL HAS DONE WELL WITH THE VORT            
MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS OVER THE                     
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TAMPA FORECAST             
AREA.  HOWEVER...TODAYS RUC MODEL MINIMIZES PRECIP OUTPUT OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT 12 HOURS AS VORT IMPULSES WEAKEN AS THEY             
MOVE SOUTHEAST IN MID LEVEL FLOW.                                               
MEANWHILE THE ETA MODEL WAS SUPERIOR TO THE NGM INITIALIZING AND                
PLACEMENT OF TROUGHS/VORT MAXES OVER THE MID AND SE U.S. DURING THE             
NEXT 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAS THE ABILITY OF ETA TO PICK UP ON THE             
MCC/MCS CLUSTER OVER THE BAMA/GEORGIA BORDER SOUTHWARD TRECK DURING             
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS VERSUS THE NGM'S EASTWARD PLACEMENT OF             
THE TSTM COMPLEX.                                                               
WILL UTILIZE COMBINATION OF RUC/ETA SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP FORECAST               
FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.  BOTH MODELS WEAKEN VORT MAXES AND ASSOCIATED PVA            
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.              
SUGGEST SCATTERED POPS OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN CWA AND SHOWERS ENDING             
BY MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY WILL SEE TRANSITION TO THINNING MID             
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER FORECAST AREA WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE                
SUNSHINE OVER TBW FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY.  POPS RETURN TO                   
CLIMATIC NORMALS OF 40 PERCENT OR SO BY WEDNESDAY.  PM MAXES SHOULD             
REBOUND INTO THE 90S OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.              
IN THE LONG TERM...PLUS 48 HOURS...THE MRF CONTINUED TREND OF                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INCHING NORTH TO FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH             
A DECREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCH                 
RANGE OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW                   
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH HAVE OF FORECAST AREA FROM WED THROUGH FRIDAY.              
ZALESKI                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 281840  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
232 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
BASED ON THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING AND THE 12Z ETA AND 12Z RUC SOUTHEAST             
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA ARE IN FOR A GOOD ROUND OF RAINFALL FOR           
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH TIME THE MODELS SHOW SOME DRYING                  
ACROSS THE AREA. THE 12Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE H20 OF             
2.18 INCHES AND ALTHOUGH THE MCC WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST OF THE AREA RAINFALL              
AMOUNTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH                
TONIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE SOME DRYING TUESDAY BUT WITH THE                   
INTERACTION OF THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD                  
JUSTIFY POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FWC POPS.                                     
AMG 73/88/73/89 4322                                                            
SSI 74/87/74/87 4333                                                            
JAX 72/90/74/91 5322                                                            
GNV 73/90/71/90 4323 33                                                         
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 281833  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
955 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS               
EXTENDED FROM VRB-SRQ-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LINE.  500 MB ANALYSIS             
INDICATED WEAK TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PVA FROM TLH SSW TO EASTERN                
GULF OF MEXICO.                                                                 
SATELLITE ANALYSIS PAINTED CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ADVECTING SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST             
FLORIDA.  88D RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLD TSTM                   
ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE WEST OF PINELLAS COUNTY WITH CONSIDERABLE              
WET MID-DECK FROM NORTH OF TPA-MLB LINE MOVING SOUTH.                           
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES              
ON THE INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  HOWEVER             
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP TODAY               
CONSIDERING LATEST RUC MODEL PAINTED AN AREA OF NVA MOVING SOUTH                
INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...AC/CS             
CLOUD CANOPY WILL MINIMIZE AFTERNOON HEATING OVER PENINSULA. ON THE             
THE OTHER HAND...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ALONG BAMA/GEORGIA BORDER MAY             
HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON TRW DEVELOPMENT WITH OUTFLOW INTERACTION LATE            
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.                                                        
ZALESKI                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 281302   fl                                     

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
915 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
MCC MOVING EAST ALONG GA/TN BORDER AROUND 30KT. SATELLITE ESTIMATES             
OF 1-2 INCH PER HOUR, BUT IR SHOWS TOPS WARMING. THUS AMOUNTTS                  
PROBABLY LESS. WILL INCLUDE STATEMENT IN UPDATE TO EFFECT RAINFALL              
LOCALLT HEAVY AT TIMES. 21Z RUC CARRIES MCC DUE EAST. ETA BRINGS                
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT INTO GA FROM TN AROUND 12Z. THUS WHILE COULD SAY            
DIMINISHG AFTER MIDNITE WITH ANOTHER WEAKER ROUND NEAR SUNRISE...               
WILL JUST KEEP HI POPS N AND DIMINISH S AS MCC THERE CONTINUES S AND            
WEAKENS. WITH RAIN N THINK MORNIGN CLOUDS AND FOG STATEMENT IN ZONES            
LOOK LIKE GOOD BET. PATCHY F SOUTH. NO CLEAR FOCUSING MECHANISM AT              
SURFACE...BUT SEE TROF OVER E AL AND LEE SIDE TROF E APPALACHAINS.              
FORECAST LOWS LOOK OK.                                                          
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 282020  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
956 AM EST MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
14Z SFC MAP SHOWS TEMPS WARMING QUITE QUICKLY ACRS FA WITH MOST                 
LOCALES NR 80. VRY HUMID AS WELL WITH TDS IN LOW 70S. LAPS DATA                 
SHOWING CONDITIONS ALREADY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 2K J/KG AND            
LIS AS LOW AS -6. WITH SFC FRONT WELL WEST ACRS W IL AND IMPLIED                
WAVE ALNG FRONT NR MMO WILL NEED TO WATCH NE IL INTO NW IN/SW MI                
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LTR THIS PM. DO NOT XPC FRONT TO MOVE MUCH            
AT ALL UNTIL SW TROF INTO MN/IA THIS HR CATCHES UP LTR THIS PM.                 
STILL THINK AREA UNDER GUN WITH 115KT JET MAX SEEN ON SLATER                    
PROFILER AT 14Z AND MID LVL SPEED MAX PROGGED TO PUSH OUT THIS                  
EVENING. EXTRAPOLATION OF UPR JET PUTS AREA UNDER FVRBL RR QUAD BY              
LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING. PWATS STILL QUITE HIGH              
WITH MODIFIED 12Z RUC SNDG SHOWING VALUES NR 1.5 SO HVY RAIN POSSIBLE           
BUT PROBABLY NOT PROBLEMATIC AS MEAN STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP THINGS           
MOVING. WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS/TEMPS HIGHER.                                 
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 280933  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
429 AM EST MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
MODELS NOW FINALLY SIMILAR WITH OVERALL SOLN. HAVE GIVEN BTR WEIGHT             
TO ETA FOR CONSISTENCY AND BTR LWLVL RESOLN. EPAC-SWRN US HGHTS RISE            
AND SVRL S/WVS CARVE OUT TROF ACRS ERN GRTLKS BY DY2. STRONGEST                 
WAVE WELL-HANDLED BY ETA AND VERIFIED WITH LTST RUC SHOWS MID-LVL               
SPEED MAX ACRS NERN NE TREKING DUE E TO WRN EDGE OF FA ARND F24.                
THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SBCAPES TO 2K SWEAT APRCH 250 INCRSG LWLVL              
FGEN FORCING INTO 350+K 950MB THETAE AIR WITH AXIS FM SPI-FWA-TOL               
PWAT 1.6-1.7 AT 28/00Z SUGGEST LKLY TSRA LT AFTN/EVE DVLPG. PER                 
SWODY1 AND INCRSD MIDLVL WRLYS TO 40KT WARRANT SLGT CHC FOR SVR WND             
THREAT PRIMARILY ACRS ERN HALF FA AS SPEED MAX CATCHES UP TO                    
ORGANIZING CONVECTION. WL HIGHLIGHT IN SVR WX OUTLOOK BUT HOLD ON               
HIGHLIGHTED ZONE WORDING DUE TO APPARENT ISOLD THREAT. TSECT SUGGESTS           
TIMING ARND 21-23Z SBN 23-01Z OH ZNS. FNTL BNDRY BECOMES MORE E-W               
ORIENTED THROUGH LWR GRTLKS TODAY AND FCST CELL MOTION NR 250-260               
DEGREES/LT 20 KTS INITIALLY SO CONCERN REMAINS WITH PSBL TRAINING/HI            
RATE/DURATION RAFL.                                                             
CURRENT 88D SHOWING WDLY SCT SHRA ACRS NRN AND SWRN FA. LDS NIL AND             
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH LTG. WL BREAK OUT SOME ZONES FOR SCT AM                  
SHRA. TEMPS CLOSE TO GUID XCPT DY2 A FEW COOLER WITH 8H TEMPS NR                
10C BEHIND FROPA AND DEEP NWRLY FLOW.                                           
SBN TB 084/064 076/056 078 15660                                                
FWA TB 085/065 077/057 078 15670                                                
AOH TB 085/067 078/057 079 15670                                                
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
UPDATE TO ADD CCF                                                               
MURPHY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 280853  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
845 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW IF ANY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS                
EVENING. AS OF 01Z...COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR A FSM...MLC...ADM             
LINE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE                 
SOUTHERN MOST EXTENT OF CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF MCCURTAIN                      
COUNTY...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF FA. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z RUC...BELIEVE               
CONVECTION WILL HELP TO PUSH FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...PERHAPS             
ALONG THE RED RIVER BEFORE PULLING UP STATIONARY. CURRENT FCST HAS              
LOW POPS ALONG RED RIVER IN NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR...THIS LOOK OK.             
FURTHER SOUTH...COULD PROBABLY TAKE POPS OUT ACROSS N LA AS DO NOT              
FEEL LIKE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH BEFORE LOW LEVEL               
JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD ALL AROUND EXCEPT AGREE WITH            
FTW ABOUT RAISING NE TX MINS A CAT TNGT.                                        
13                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLCH 290111  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
WV LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER            
TRIPLE POINT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE ENE...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 09Z             
RUC LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE 500MB VORT MAX. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS             
BEEN FEEDING ENERGY FOR SHOWERS DEPICTED ON RADAR OVER THE EASTERN              
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL MINNESOTA. KDLH/KMQT 88-D LOOPS INDICATED SHOWERS               
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ENTERING GOGEBIC COUNTY BY 14Z.                        
LDS INDICATES A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT               
THUNDER THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN OUR CWA. 03Z MESOETA BRINGS UP              
TO 300 J/KG OF CAPE INTO FAR SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY. 09Z RUC                 
CALLS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER LIS TO CLIMB UP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR                
SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING THESE AREAS WILL CLOUD OVER IN AN HOUR OR TWO            
AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...SOLAR HEATING WILL BE KEPT             
TO A MINIMUM.                                                                   
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFRESH WORDING ON MORNING/AFTERNOON PRECIP                
TIMING. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH LATEST               
METARS AND 14Z LAMP SO LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE NECESSARY.                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 280846  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
830 PM MDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
SOME UPDATING IN ORDER DUE MAINLY TO TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS.                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW        
THAT HAS KICKED UP SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT.  ODDLY ENOUGH...THE RUC RUN FOR         
29/00Z DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE VERY WELL.  THUS FAR ON RADAR...THE           
PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE SHOWERS ONLY.  GOING SET COVERS THIS WELL.            
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS WITH THEM AS              
TWEAKING THE STORM RELATIVE VELOCITY MAP ON RADAR POINTS OUT.  WILL             
MENTION THIS AS WELL IN THE UPDATES.                                            
CLOUDS SHOULD THIN OUT LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER AIR FEATURE MOVES ON.             
KNOWING THAT LOWS LAST NIGHT WENT A BIT LOWER THAN WAS LOOKING                  
AT...BELIEVE WITH DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THEY ARE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES         
A TAD IN MOST CASES IS ADVISABLE.                                               
POPS LOOK REASONABLE.                                                           
THE RUC RUN FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL.  WILL         
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS PER THIS MODEL.  CHB               
BIL BB 046/075 052/072 051 522333                                               
LVM .. 044/072 049/070 ... 523333                                               
HDN .. 045/076 051/073 ... 522333                                               
MLS .. 050/077 052/074 ... 522333                                               
4BQ .. 049/078 053/075 ... 522333                                               
BHK .. 048/075 050/072 ... 522333                                               
SHR BB 043/074 048/072 048 522333                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 282050  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
937 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
BULK OF SHRA AND TSRA NOW EXITING WRN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS BUT                 
RADARS SHOW MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY UPSTREAM ACROSS NW PA. SOME                 
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FRM MCS MOVING INTO ERN OH AND WRN PA ATTM.                 
MID LVL FLW MAY ADVECT THIS ACROSS SRN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND WITH             
SERIES OF WK SHORT WAVES DEPICTED ON MESO ETA AND RUC PROG TO CROSS             
THIS REGION OVERNIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE.                    
WILL RIDE WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NRN ZONES BUT BUMP POPS UP                   
SLIGHTLY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ZONES. NO OTHER CHANGES.                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
RRM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 290114  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
RADARS INFINITELY QUIETER THAN I EXPECTED YDY AS SUBTLE VORTMAX CAME            
ACROSS MUCH ERLYR THAN EXPECTED WITH MDL FCSTS NEVER SPECIFICALLY               
SEEING IT. DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAFL IN THE 1-2" RANGE FM WY VALLEY...SRN          
TIER AND INTO THE SRN CATSKILLS VRY ERLY THIS AM. DEEP MOISTURE                 
REMAINS SOCKED IN TDY AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INCRS THE INSTABILITY              
WITH CAPES TO 1500 AND LI'S ROUGHLY -4. NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO               
REDEVELOP SHRA/TSRA TAFTN...HOWEVER WITH MIDLVL LAPSE RATES NOT                 
IMPRESSIVE AND STILL SOME CIN ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AUTOCONVECTION              
NOT LIKELY AND A DYNAMIC TRIGGER NEEDED WHICH IS HARD TO FIND FOR               
MUCH OF CWA. MDLS STILL HAVE A LOT OF NOISE IN THIS SWLY FLOW PTTRN             
WITH VMAXES...CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA FIELDS JUMPING AROUND. 09Z RUC              
DOES SEEM TO HV A HANDLE ON A S/WV PRODUCING TSRA IN WV WHICH IN                
TURN ZIPS NE INTO PA AND SE NY BY LATE AFTN. A LOBE OF PVA MAY ALSO             
BE EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WITH SHRA NR KBFD WITH AN H8 TROF            
IN THE VCNTY AS WELL. MORE BREAKS IN THE CLDS SRN AREAS AS WELL FOR             
ENHANCED INSTAB ALTHO ALL WL RAPIDLY FILL IN. WL GENLY CONTINUE                 
MODEST RAFL CHANCES ALL AREAS TAFTN ALTHO EXPECT SRN TIER...NE PA               
POCONOS AND SRN CATS WL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AS WAVE COMES THRU. SCT              
POSSIBILITIES FURTHER NORTH. ANYTHING THAT GOES WILL BE TORRENTIAL              
CONSIDERING PW'S ABOUT 2".                                                      
NEED TO UPGRADE SKY TO M/CLDY OTHERWISE TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE TO FCST              
MACROS CONSIDERING CLDS AND HUMIDITY.  COLD FRONT POISED OVER GTLKS             
BRINGS MORE PROMISE FOR TUES ALTHO LOOKS LIKE IT'S DRIVING JETSTREAK            
SHEARS NORTH AND IT MAY ONLY COME THRU WITH A WHIMPER.                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BREWSTER                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 281418  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1005 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
SFC DWPNTS OF 70F OR HIR ALG MUCH OF E CST TO CYMX VCNTY AT 13Z. MDT            
PTN OF DIST HAS H8 THETA-E VALUES AOB 340 MESH THAT WITH PRECIPITABLE           
WATER ON AREA SOUNDINGS OF 2 IN PLUS AND WHAT BRKS WERE IN THE CLDS             
NR KELM...KUCA AND KINGSTON FILLED IN RELATIVELY QUICKLY. CDFNT ACRS            
ONTARIO INTO SRN MI AND NRN IL WITH WIDE AREA OF CYC FLOW ARND CNDN             
LOW. RUC PORTRAYS WK PVA CLOSING IN ACRS DIST. RGNL RADAR LOOP                  
DEPICTS SOME CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE NR KBFD. SOUNDINGS             
ALSO POINT TO STORM MOTION IN THE 10-20 KT NEIGHBORHOOD...THUS SOME             
LOCATIONS COULD BE BOUND FOR USEFUL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. COULD BE               
LCL UNDERPASS PONDING SITUATIONS...BUT THINK THAT IS NOWCAST                    
MATERIAL. WITH AMOUNT OF CLDS...THINK SOME ZONES CAN BE COMBINED...             
OTRW TROPICAL-STYLE HUMIDITY TIL CDFNT GETS THRU TUESDAY.                       
MCKINLEY/RCK                                                                    
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
 ny                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1030 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
SOUPY AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER AREA THIS MORNING WITH INLAND STRATUS             
THICKER THAN ON SU. INLAND. 12Z SOUNDING MORE MOIST IN MID LEVELS SO            
STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK UP. WILL WORD INLAND ZONES AS                   
BECOMING PT SUNNY. A FEW SHOWERS OVER SRN SECTIONS BUT MORE                     
CONCERNED ABOUT ACTIVITY OFF SC COAST WHICH MAY ADVECT N LATER THIS             
AFTN. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY ASSCTD WITH WEAK SHRT WV PER LATEST RUC.             
APPEARS BEST CHANCES WILL BE COASTAL ZONES AND WILL TWEAK POPS TO 40            
THERE AND LOWER TO 30 INLAND. TEMPS GENERALLY OK.                               
CWF: WINDS STILL MAINLY AROUND 15 KTS BUT GRADIENT EXPTECTED TO                 
TIGHTEN THIS AFTN AND WILL CONT FCST AS IS.                                     
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS.                                                      
JBM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 281359  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
950 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
DISSIPATING SHOWERS MOVED OFF THE HEW HANOVER COUNTY AND PENDER                 
COASTS THIS MORNING AND A LONE RANGER SHOWER HAS DIED OVER SOUTHERN             
HORRY COUNTY. DON'T EXPECT ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTERNOON.                
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM CHS 12Z SOUNDING ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY            
IN INDICATING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE COAST. MSAS SHOWS               
THAT A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE INLAND                
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DESTABLILIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.              
LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AT 500 MB WHICH SLOWLY            
MAKES IT WAY OVERHEAD LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WHICH                
SHOULD AID IN SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION                 
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEABREEZE (OR RESULTANT WIND) BOUNDARY. WHICH                 
AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN DEPENDS ON THE INLAND PROGRESSION             
OF THE SEABREEZE. YESTERDAY IT MOVED INLAND ENOUGH TO KEEP NEW                  
HANOVER AND MOST OF BRUNSWICK AND PENDER COUNTIES DRY ALTHOUGH IT               
HUGGED THE COAST IN HORRY AND GEORGETOWN. WITH SIMILAR SWLY SFC FLOW            
EXPECTED TODAY THIS SCENARIO COULD PLAY OUT AGAIN. QUESTION IS                  
WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES INLAND THRU THESE                  
COUNTIES...THEREFORE IS IT WORTH DROPPING POPS? WILL ROLL THE DICE              
AND SPLIT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THE NC/SC BORDER AND LOWER POPS A             
TAD ON THE NC SIDE. TEMPS LOOK OK BASED ON 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES              
FROM 12Z RAOBS. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO ALLOW PARTLY                
SUNNY SKIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                 
CWF...SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY DATA FROM FPSN7              
AND 41004 INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS ARE WITHIN CURRENT FCST. SEE NO              
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD REQUIRE             
ANY CHANGES.                                                                    
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MORGAN                                                                          
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
910 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOW THAT COLD FRONT HAD REACHED A VAN BUREN             
TO MCALESTER LINE BY 9 PM.  00Z RUC SHOWS FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE              
SLOW PROGRESS UNTIL IT HANGS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z.                 
HOWEVER...FRONT COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE OUACHITA                       
MOUNTAINS.  RADAR IS SHOWING CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MLC                 
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD                
CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IN 30              
POPS IN FAR SE OK THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
FRONT...AND WHAT THE 00Z RUC SHOWS AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP BY                  
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL ELIMINATE OVERNIGHT POPS NORTH OF I-40 AND            
TWEAK WINDS A BIT.  CURRENT TEMP FCST RANGING FROM UPR 60S-MID 70S              
LOOKS GOOD.  UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD BE OUT AROUND 935 PM.                      
18Z ETA SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
CNTRL PLAINS ON TUE.  WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP            
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACRS KS/NE...THOUGH THIS SETUP COULD SKIRT THE              
NRN ZNS AROUND MID-DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD              
SUFFICE. OTRW...HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SRN ZNS ON TUE               
LOOKS GOOD TOO.  COULD BE ANOTHER MCS TOMORROW NIGHT.  WILL NEED TO             
WATCH THIS POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                                    
22                                                                              
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 282036  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1020 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
SAT PICS INDICATE CLOUDS FILLING IN RAPIDLY ACROSS CWA ATTM.  LATEST            
RUC MODEL RUN BRINGS VORT MAX TO CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH           
HIGH TD/S THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND CONSIDERING THE FACT THAT SHOWERS           
ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP IN WESTERN PA WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF MAX                 
DAYTIME HEATING...BELIEVE CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN THROUGHOUT MOST OF CWA.  HAVE RAISED                
POP/S TO CATEGORICAL IN MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTH AND EAST            
WHERE THEY WILL BE RAISED TO 50 POP.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO                
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD PRODUCE GOOD RAINS              
WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS.                                    
WINDS ARE PICKING UP IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE WHICH RUC IS HANDLING            
VERY WELL COMPARED TO AVN/NGM/ETA. SCA HAS BEEN RAISED ON THE OCEAN             
FRONT (SANDY HOOK TO FENWICK IS) AND IN THE LOWER DE BAY.  HAVE ALSO            
RAISED WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE INLAND ZONES.                                      
WRKZFP ALREADY OUT.                                                             
.PHI...SCA SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE AND THE LOWER DE BAY.             
JJM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KPBZ 281404  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
945 PM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
KGSP RADAR SHOWS TSRA STILL PULSING OVER NC PIEDMONT...MEANWHILE                
DECAYING MCS LOOMS JUST OVER THE HORIZON IN ERN TN. OBVIOUSLY...PRECIP          
CHANCES NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE RAIN IS ON           
THE DOORSTEP OF WRN NC. 21Z RUC SHOWS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE OH           
VALLEY WILL PROVIDE ENUF OF AN IMPETUS TO GET THE PRECIP INTO THE NC            
MOUNTAINS. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR E WILL IT MOVE. THE MAIN WORRY IS            
THAT THE MCS REMNANTS WILL STALL AND RAIN OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS                
OVERNITE...DUMPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. UPPER FLOW IS FCST TO REMAIN           
QUITE WEAK E OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOPEFULLY...LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 20 TO 30           
KTS AT 850/700 WILL KEEP THE REMNANTS MOVING AS THEY WEAKEN FURTHER.            
WILL CONSIDER SPLITTING THE ZONES TO GO CATEGORICAL IN SOME PLACES...           
BUT LIKELY POPS AT MINIMUM IN THE MOUNTAINS.                                    
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 290105  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1014 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
LOW CLOUDS STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS TREND           
SHOULD CONTINUE GIVING PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON. VORT MAX OVER THE GA/AL BORDER MOVING SOUTHEAST TO CROSS GA          
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC HAS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING        
PVA ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS PLENTY MOIST AND        
STILL UNSTABLE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH         
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE            
CNTRL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                    
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 281407  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1007 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
WEAKENING MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA PUSHING TO THE              
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT WEAK...UNANALYZED SURFACE                 
BOUNDARIES FROM DYING CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA WILL WANDER               
AIMLESSLY ACROSS OUR CWFA TODAY...READY TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS               
OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMB. OTHER FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING                 
INCLUDE THE ANTICIPATED LEE TROF ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST CWFA...                
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROF IN EASTERN TENNESSEE WITH ANOTHER SEPARATE            
AREA OF CONVECTION AND AREA OF DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR LOOP SINKING            
SOUTH AND SLIDING EASTWARD ON BACK OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PULLING AWAY               
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.                                                   
UPR AIR ANAYLSES AND KGSP 88-D INDICATE DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO FOOTHILLS           
AND PIEDMONT OF CWFA AT PRESENT AND THIS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE              
WAY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL VERY LATE IN AFTN. INDEED...VISIBILE             
PICTURES SHOW SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY EAST OF MTNS. AREA SOUNDINGS               
VERY UNSTABLE BY LATE TDY...WITH CAPES OVER 3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF               
-5 TO -7. 70H TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND +8 NOW...SO WE MAY SEE               
MOSTLY POTENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CONVETIVE TEMPS              
LUK TO BE AROUND 85 OR SO. 09Z RUC TAKES MESOSCALE VORT CENTER IN               
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI VERY CLOSE TO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME                
WEAK DPVA AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH EAST TENNESSEE BOUNDARY AS IT NEARS            
MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP 40 POPS IN AFTERNOON UPDATE.                               
SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY TODAY. THICKNESS SCHEME             
SUPPORTS 90 TO 95 IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA/UPSTATE SO WILL RAISE MAXES              
THERE.                                                                          
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 281356  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
956 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
12Z CHS SOUNDING ABT AS LOADED AS CAN BE WITH MOISTURE (PWAT 2.1...             
LI -3...KI 38...TT 46) BUT W/O ENUF INSOLATION...IT MAY GO TO WASTE.            
ALL 3 MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO...09Z RUC2 SHOWS NO SIG            
DIFFERENCES. A S/WV OVER NW GA WL MOVE SE THIS AFT...EHANCING PCPN              
CHCS ESP OVER SE GA. ANOTHER S/WV IN SRN IL EARLY THIS AM WL TRY TO             
COME THRU TNGT. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND INTENSITY             
OF S/WV'S...AS WUD BE EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF PTN. NONETHELESS...WL            
NOT MAKE MANY CHGS THIS PKG. 50 POPS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR SRN SC              
THIS AFT...AND SEE NO REASON TO TAKE DOWN THE 60 POPS FOR SE GA. WITH           
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE OUT THERE...BLV THERE WL BE SUM HEAVY RAINERS             
WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES PSBL IN AN HOUR OR TWO. LOOKING AT LTST                 
VIS/IR IMGRY...AM PLANNING VARIABLE CLOUDS FOR SRN SC...AND M/CLDY              
FOR SE GA. WITH THAT IN MIND...WL CUT HI TEMPS THIS AFT TO NR 90                
INLAND AND 85-90 CST.                                                           
CWF...AFTER OVERNIGHT SURGING...SW FLOW TAKING A MORNING BREATHER               
BEFORE AFTN MIXING AND TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PRES GRADIENT (PER 09Z             
RUC2) TAKE HOLD. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM CURRENT 15 KT TO 20 KT THIS           
AFTN AND MAINTAIN SEAS FCST.                                                    
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
TJR/RVT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 281050  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
845 CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                         
LATEST SAT PICS SHOW MOST OF THE DAYTIME CU/SC HAS DISSIPATED.  MAIN            
CONCERN FOR CLEAR FORECAST IS FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS STREAMING EAST IN             
80-90KT JET ACROSS SD.  SEEMS TO BE THINNING A BIT AS IT MOVES INTO             
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...BUT WILL GO WITH MORE OF A PTLY CLOUDY WORDING             
IN THE UPDATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE 00Z/29 RUC                 
SHOWS GREATER 300MB RH VALUES FORECAST THROUGH 09Z.  WINDS BEGINNING            
TO COME DOWN WITH THE SETTING SUN...SO WILL CLEAN UP TREND WORDING              
THERE SOME AS WELL.  TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT DEWPOINTS              
IN THE LOWER 50S AND AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS.            
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 290122  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
823 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC MDL SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS MOVING SE               
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE S ACROSS ALL OF          
THE CWA. THE RUC ALSO SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT BRINGING SOME CLOUDS.               
OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS         
TIME.                                                                           
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 282049  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
1037 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AIDED FNTL BNDRY CONTINUES TO ROLL SWD THRU                  
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING.  PRES RISES OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR BHD IT AT 15Z            
PROMISES A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOVEMENT INTO THE AFTN.  12Z RUC                
INDICATES FNT WILL PUSH INTO PB THIS AFTN AND TEND TO AGREE.  WITH              
ABUNDANT MSTR...CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG THIS AFTN AND SFC-850 MB                
MSTR CONVERGENCE INCREASING ALG BNDRY WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC TSRA              
FURTHER SWD IN UPDATE.  WIND FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK...                 
THEREFORE XPC ANY TSRA THAT DO DVLP TO RMN UNORGAINIZED AND                     
SHORT/LIVED.                                                                    
WILL REMOVE MORNING LOW CLDS...UPDATE WINDS IN AT LEAST NRN THREE               
TIERS OF COUNTIES FOR ONSET OF FNT AND LEAVE TEMPS AS IS.                       
AKL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 281527  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1026 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
MCS OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING GAVE EXTRA PUSH TO COLD FRONT...             
MAKING GOOD SOUTHWARD PROGRESS BETWEEN AMARILLO AND LUBBOCK AT 15Z.             
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING IN SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT              
FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TO CHILDRESS.                                              
IN WRKSJ1 PUT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BIG                 
COUNTRY AREA...AS RUC INDICATED FRONT TO BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF               
CWA AT 00Z. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING                
SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                
ELSEWHERE...REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS.                              
04                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KFWD 281507 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
DSCN:                                                                           
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR TSRA'S ARE THERE TDY. S/W MOVG ACROSS               
WVA ATTM PROGGED TO CUT ACROSS NRN VA INTO SRN PA...WHILE A SECOND              
BUT WEAKER S/W CUTS ACROSS SE VA ERLY THIS AFTRN. RUC/MESOETA EVEN              
HINTING AT NVA OVR SRN VA LATE THIS AFTRN. BUT WITH PW'S APPRCHG 2              
IN...LI'S BLO ZERO ...PLNTY OF LL MSTR & AFTRN HTNG...CAN'T RULE                
OUT A POP ANYWHERE. WELCOME TO SUMMER IN VIRGINIA. 12Z SNDGS RTHR               
TRPLCL. THUS...SOME HVY RAINERS PSBL...WHERE THEY OCCUR.                        
MORNING CLOUDS SHUD LIFT & BCM YOUR TYPICAL AFTRN CU. WILL GO WITH              
PT SUNNY. BEST CHANCE AND HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS NRN & WRN                 
CNTYS...CLOSER TO S/W NRGY. AFTR 21Z CLOSER TO THE CST. LWR POPS TO             
THE S. HIGHS APPRCHG 90 WITH HEAT INDEX ARND 100. PRS GRAD ALONG CST            
PUSHING WNDS NR 20 KT ATTM. WILL CONT BREEZY CNDTNS THERE.                      
CWF...MARINE FCSTR WILL RAISE SCA FLAGS FOR SEAS OVR NRN WTRS.                  
WNDS ARND 20 KTS XPCTD TO RAISE SEAS TO 5 FT.                                   
.AKQ...SCA FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO PARRAMORE ISLAND.                             
44                                                                              
 va                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
430 AM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON PCPN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.                       
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST WI/NORTHERN IL. DRIER AIR           
HAS DIPPED SOUTH IN TO AREA WITH DEW POINT SPREAD VARYING FROM THE              
MIDDLE 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTHWEST. PERSISTENT         
BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER ONEIDA COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX LIFTING        
NORTH. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED LAST FEW SCANS. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS         
HAS FORMED OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.                                          
FOCUS OF FORECAST TURNS TO ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND               
MINNESOTA.  TONIGHTS MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER            
WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN US. SEVERAL WAVES TO           
PROGRESS THROUGH FLOW WITH EACH MODEL BEING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH             
THEIR MOVEMENT OF THE ENERGY. HAVE BASED FORECAST MORE ON SHORT TERM RUC        
AND MESO ETA AS THEY TEND TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF PCPN FIELDS AT 06Z.        
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE             
BOUNDARY MESO ETA SHOWING LI'S EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -2...WILL ADD              
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.                             
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
TE                                                                              
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 280851  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
300 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
A FRONT OVR NW INDIANA THIS MRNG WL MOV ACRS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN            
AND EVENG. HOWEVER NOT SURE HOW MUCH IF ANY PRECIP WL BE WITH THE               
FNT.                                                                            
A LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS TDY. THE RUC SHOWS THE VORT MAX NOW IN WV              
WORKING ON THIS TROF TO DEVELOP SHWRS AND TSTMS ALG IT BY MID MRNG.             
CURRENTLY HAVE A DECENT AMT OF PRECIP BACK IN WV WITH THIS TROF.                
MODELS ALSO SHOW THE WINDS AT 85H TURNING W TO NW AND INCRG TO 20 KT            
AFTER LEESIDE TROF PASSES THE W LATE THIS MRNG. THIS USUALLY KILLS              
ANY CONVECTION AS IT TRIES TO CROSS THE MTNS AND WITH NO GOOD UPPER             
SUPPORT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONT.                 
HOWEVER ALSO SUPPORTING THE TROF AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL BE SOME DIVG             
ALFT OVR THE NE PART FA THIS AFTN. ALSO LOOKED AT QN FORCING AND                
FRONTAL FORCING AND THAT KEYS ON NE PART OF AREA. WL GO HIGHEST POPS            
THERE. FARTHER W EMPHAZIE MAINLY MRNG PRECIP AND LOWER POPS.                    
LOOKING AT LAMP DATA ALSO SHOWS THIS TROF MOVG THRU CNTRL PART FA               
ARND IAD NEAR 15Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO W AND DEWPOINTS DROP BACK              
INTO THE 60S.                                                                   
WL GO CLOSE TO FWC TEMPS AS IT SHD BE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH SOME                 
SUNSHINE AND 85H TEMPS ARND 18C ALSO THE W FLOW WL HELP THE HEAT.               
FOR TNGT SKIES SHD ATLEAST GET PARTLY CLDY. ON WED MOISTURE BEGINS              
TO RETURN FM THE S AND NGM ACTUALLY TRIES TO GIVE OUT PRECIP OVR                
MOST OF FA. FOR NOW WL CONFINE IT TO THE SRN PART FA BUT SHD SEE                
HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN TO AREA BY WED NGT. WITH FNT NOT FAR N OF              
FA THRU THE EXTENDED AND VARIOUS IMPULSES ALG THE FNT WL PUT CHC IN             
MOST PDS IN EXTENDED.                                                           
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 290152 COR  md                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                     
CURRENT STLT LOOP SHOWING AREA OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING             
QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM CONVECTION OVER                    
WISCONSIN. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WISCONSIN SHOWING BKN-OVC             
CLOUDS BETWEEN 7000 FT AND 10000 FT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE          
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                           
CURRENT SURFACE CHART SHOWING NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER           
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST             
AREA. LATEST RUC SHOWING 850 DEW PTS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY OVER ERN              
UPPER MICHIGAN AND STRAITS AREA... WITH 10C TO 12C STILL PROGGED OVER           
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT             
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND               
SURFACE AND 925 MB WINDS FORECAST UNDER 10 MPH... EXPECT LAKE BREEZE            
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE HURON SOUTH OF APN. AFTERNOON             
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LAKE HURON TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.          
THIS COULD SUPPLY ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHEAST            
PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN            
STABLE ENOUGH FOR GENERAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.                               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 281505  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
315 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
ETA AND NGM SIMILIAR IN UPPER LVL AND LOW LVL FEATURES WHILE AVN                
SEEMS TO SMOOTH THE UPPER LVL SHRTWVS PROGGED BY THE ETA/NGM. FOLLOWED          
AN ETA/NGM SOLN AND LEANED TOWARD THE ETA IN A COUPLE AREAS. NGM                
APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING RETURN AND STRENGTH OF SRLY FLOW ALONG WITH             
AMPLITUDE OF THERMAL RIDGE PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS THE CWFA TDY                
INTO TNGT. 00Z RUC HINTS THAT FIRST IMPULSE WL BE FURTHER S THIS                
MRNG WITH A SECOND IMPULSE INDICATED BY THE ETA/NGM TO AFFECT THE REST          
OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE NGT. CAPES VALUED FM 400 J/KG TO             
1000 J/KG WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SO TSTMS NOT OUT             
OF THE QUESTION. WOULD NOT BE SURPISED TO SEE INITIAL PCPN MALF IN              
WRN CWFA AROUND NOON TIL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS MORE TIME TO FEED INTO            
THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTN AND EVE. WITH SOME CONCERNS THAT PCPN                
AMTS BY NGM/ETA MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FIRST PRD...WL KEEP POPS BLO            
MOS FOR THE FIRST PRD. PLENTY OF HIGH TO MID LVL CLDS ON THE IR                 
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT CIRRUS TO BE THICK ENOUGH TO KEEP               
TEMPS FM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TDY A NOTCH OR             
TWO FM PRVS FCST.                                                               
FOR THIRD PRD INTO THE EXTENDED...A LITTLE MORE TRICKY IN DEALING               
WITH CHC OF PCPN AS TIMING OF SHRTWVS IN THE MDLS SOMEWHAT                      
QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER 00Z AVN AND MRF INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER            
ROUND OF TSTMS THU SO ADDED A CHC OF TSTMS AND TWEAKED TEMPS THU WITH           
REMAINING EXTENDED FCST LEFT UNCHANGED.                                         
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
BR                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 290759  sd                                      

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA                                  
900 AM PDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
PROBLEMS OF THE DAY...FLUCTUATIONS IN MARINE LAYER AND ONSHORE                  
GRADIENT.                                                                       
WILL UPDATE AT AROUND 930 AM TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.                      
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...VISIBILITIES WERE INCREASING ALONG THE SLO/SBA          
COUNTY COASTS AND NPW WILL EXPIRE AT 915 AM. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST            
PROFILER DATA...THE MARINE LAYER WAS APPROX 1300 FEET DEEP NEAR LAX.            
THE MARINE LAYER DID INDEED MAKE INTO THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING KBUR AND          
KVNY AND STRONG INVERSION PLUS HEALTHY ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL          
LEAD TO A SLOW CLEARING PROCESS IN COASTAL SECTIONS.                            
WATER VAPOR PIX SHOWING SOME DEBRIS CLOUD FROM AN MCS OVER NORTHERN             
SONORA DRIFTING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME             
AFTN CU OVR THE MTNS BUT RUC MODEL INDICATING VERY LIMITED MOISTURE             
AVBL FOR THIS CWA.                                                              
FOR THE 12 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD...8H TEMPS, 5H HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS               
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THRU WED....TODAY THE 5H HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE A             
SKOSH. LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN COASTAL AREAS          
DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...CLEARING BACK TO THE COASTLINE IN          
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH IN COASTAL SXNS UNDER               
INFLUENCE OF COASTAL CLOUDS...HOWEVER...HIGHER EASTERN VALLEY                   
LOCATIONS WILL WARM  SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY WITH MARINE LAYER GETTING              
SQUASHED SLIGHTLY BY WARM SUBSIDENCE.                                           
FOR THE EXTENDED...MRF AND ECMWF AGREE THAT UPR RIDGE WL HOLD STRONG            
THROUGH THU WITH HIGH HGTS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTG. AS UPR                 
TROUGH  DEVELOPS ACRS THE PAC NW FRI AND SAT HEIGHTS ACRS SRN CA WILL           
SLWOLY LOWER AND XPCT SOME GRADUAL COOLING BY SAT.                              
LAX 000. SWEET.                                                                 
.LAX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...SEE LAXNPWLAX.                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSGX 291554  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1002 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
THE COMPLEX OFF ALONG THE NORTH GEORGIA COAST CONTINUE TO SHIFT                 
SOUTH AND SEEMS TO BE GOING ALONG THE THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH                    
MOVES IT OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS                 
SOME CONFLICT BETWEEN THE MESO ETA AND THE RUC WITH THE MESO ETA                
MOVING A SECOND VORT CENTER OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST                    
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. IN EITHER CASE EXPECT GOOD                  
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AGAIN TODAY WITH THE PRECIPITABLE H2O AROUND 1.75               
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                         
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 291350  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN IOWA NEAR KDNS           
WITH LLVL N/NWLY FLO PRVLG OVR CWA. VERY REFRESHING AIRMASS WITH                
DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S. 12Z UA ANALYS REVEALS H85 RDG AXIS           
EXTENDG FM MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO EASTERN KANSAS.                   
NATIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWG PCPN OVR DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA IN VCNTY OF H7              
TROF AND BAROCLINIC ZN/WAA. 12Z OMAHA SOUNDG (K0AX) SHOWS LARGE                 
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SO MUCH OF PCPN NOT REACHING GRND THOUGH                
LATEST SFC OBS REVEAL SOME RAIN REACHING GRND OVR PTNS OF EASTERN               
NEBRASKA. 12Z RUC BRINGS SOME LGT PCPN INTO SCNTRL IOWA BY LATE                 
AFTERNOON WHICH APPEARS OVERDONE GIVEN LOCATION OF HIGH/STRENGTH OF             
DRY AIRMASS. RETURN FLOW PROGGED NOT TO BEGIN OVR CWA UNTIL TNGT.               
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DVLPG OVR MUCH OF NRN HALF OF CWA WITH 12Z KDVN              
SHOWG SOME LLVL MOISTURE THRU 3000 FT. MID/HIGH LVL CLDS SURGING                
RAPIDLY E ON HEELS OF H5-H3 JET OF 50-70 KTS NOSING INTO CNTRL IOWA             
AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH ALL BEING SAID WILL ADJUST SKY                 
WORDING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO EITHER PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY.                 
TEMPS APPEAR OK AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                           
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
05                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 290805  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
...UPDATE FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...                              
CURRENTLY STRONG CAA OCCURRING OVER LWR MI AS DEEP LOW CONTINUES TO             
MOVE NE AWAY FROM MI DURING THE AFTERNOON.  850 TEMPS AT 12Z FALL               
FROM 12C AT DTX TO 3C AT APX.  WITH STRONG CYCLONICLY CURVED WINDS              
FLOW AROUND L0W...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 780 MB AND 70-80 PCT RH             
BELOW INVERSION THIS MORNING NO SUPRISE VIS IMAGE LOOPS SHWS CU CLD             
STREETS.  MODELS DO SUGGEST WINDS WILL BECOME ANTICYCL THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND CAA WILL END. LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY SOME (925 MB RH               
FALLS FROM NEAR 80 PCT TO AROUND 65 PCT) BUT 850 STAYS WITH RH                  
AROUND 70 PCT.  SO... WHILE CU/SC TYPE CLDS WILL DECREASE WITH                  
TIME... ENOUGH INSTABLITY BELOW INVERSION... EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL                
WINDS BECOMING ANTICYC.. TO HAVE SOME CU AROUND. THUS... WILL FCST              
PARTLY SUNNY TODAY.                                                             
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70... RUC AND ETA SHOW 850 TEMPS BTWN 6-8C OVER              
CWA BY 21Z.... SO HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70.  WITH ENOUGH CLDS                    
AROUND.. MAY NOT EVEN GET TO THAT TEMPERATURE.                                  
BOTTOM LINE FORECAST... PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH NEAR 70.                             
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 291450  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
NO MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEMS WITH THIS UPDATE... JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO             
TEMPS AND CLD WORDING.                                                          
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CD FNT APRCHG THE OHIO RIVER AS BRISK NW WNDS            
CONT TO PUCH MUCH COLR...DRIER AIR ACRS THE RGN. STRONG Q-VEC DVRGNC            
AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPR LVL S/WV RAPIDLY CLRD SKIES               
THIS MORG. DESPITE MUCH LWR DWPTS...CU IS FAIRLY ABUNDANT THIS MORG             
THE RESULT OF MSTR FM YESTERDAY/S RAFL AND POCKET OF COOL AIR.  WL              
HAVE A MIX OF CLDS AND SUN THRU THE ZONES.                                      
TEMPS A LTL SLOW TO CLIMB W/ LOW LVL CAA AND WNDS OFF THE FOR THE               
NRN SHORE RESIDENTS. HOWEVER...12Z RUC SHOWS SOME WARMER AIR                    
RETURNING TO WRN SXNS BY LATE AFTN...AND THEY CD GET A CPL DEG BUMP             
AS A RESULT.  WL KEEP SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS IN WRN AND SRN CNTYS.                 
ERLY MORG IR PICS SHOWED HIGH CLDS RACING TWD THE FA AHD OF NEXT SYS            
SO TOYED W/ IDEA OF CHANGING CLD WORDING TNT.  HOWEVER..LEADING EDGE            
OF CLDS CONTS TO THIN IN DRY AIR OVR MN/WI.  12Z RUC AND PEEK AT THE            
NEW ETA INDICATE MOST PLENTIFUL UPR LVL MSTR AND LIFTING MECHANISMS             
REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE YOOP THRU 00Z.  WL LEAVE WRDG AS IS AND            
LET AFTN FCSTR TAKE A LONGER LOOK AT THE REMAINING 12Z MDL DATA.                
.MQT..NONE.                                                                     
DESROSIERS                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 291434  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1031 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
LATEST VIS STLT SHOWING BANDING LAKE CLOUDS MOVING OVER EAST UPPER AND          
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA         
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE             
THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER THE STATE.                             
CURRENT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN         
ONTARIO WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR. 12Z RUC SHOWS SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD           
AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE            
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND 6C-7C THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
OPEN LAKE TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND 16C AND LAKE SUPERIOR           
AROUND 14C. DELTA T'S TO REMAIN BETWEEN 8 AND 10 THIS AFTERNOON FOR             
THE CONTINUE CHANCE OF LAKE CLOUDS. 12Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE         
LOWEST LAYER...BELOW 850 MB...DRYING SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE           
WILL GO WITH MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS AND EAST UPPER              
MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE STABLE ONSHORE FLOW AND DRYING. WILL GO WITH             
PARTLY SUNNY FOR INLAND COUNTIES.                                               
SEE NO NEED TO MENTION PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON. APX MORNING                
SOUNDING SHOWED STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...12Z RUC SHOWED STRONG              
QVECTOR DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 850/500MB AND SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO SLOWLY        
MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.                                              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 291002  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
900 AM MDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF                 
BILLINGS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MID LEVEL          
CLOUD DECK SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WATER VAPOR        
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUATION OF THE UNUSUALLY STRONG AND FURTHER            
SOUTH THAN NORMAL ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES FROM WEST OF THE          
DATELINE EAST INTO THE WESTERN U.S.  ONE WEAK WAVE IS ENTERING CENTRAL          
MT WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS ON THE PACIFIC NW COAST.  12Z RUC INDICATES             
STRONG SURFACE WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD IN          
COMBINATION WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER DUE TO MIXING.                               
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES.  STROBIN                                
BIL BB 075/052 075/052 073 63333                                                
LVM .. 072/049 070/... ... 63333                                                
HDN .. 077/051 077/... ... 63333                                                
MLS .. 077/052 077/052 ... 63333                                                
4BQ .. 076/053 075/... ... 63333                                                
BHK .. 075/050 074/... ... 63333                                                
SHR BB 074/049 073/047 075 63333                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGGW 291501  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
CDFNT ADVANCING ACRS WRN SXNS OF NY ATTM WITH SGFNTLY LWR DWPNTS                
ALREADY INTO CYHM VCNTY. POSITIVE BUOYANCY LOOKING FOR WELL IN                  
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH SOME MID LVL DRYING SPCLY ON 12Z KALY                  
SOUNDING WITH BETTER SHEAR PROFILE ON KBUF SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE               
WATER DCRD FM VALUES 24 HRS AGO...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO 2 IN TO             
TAKE NOTICE. WL CONT TO HIGHLITE WND POTENTIAL WITH TSTMS THIS AFTN             
AND WL HEIGHTEN NOTE OF HZ/HUMIDITY AND WITH FNTL FORCING WL ALSO               
BUMP POPS UPWD 20-30 PERCENTAGE PTS. LTLCG FOR MAX TEMP PLANNED.                
OR TNGT PD WL DCR POPS ACRS NW DIST PER EXTRAPOLATION OF 09Z RUN OF             
RUC BACK EDGE QPF TO 15 HRS.  MCKINLEY/JSQ                                      
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 291409  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
SFC ANALYSIS/VSBL SAT PIX SHOW SFC COLD FRNT ENTERING THE IAG FRONTIER          
ATTM...XTENDG BACK INTO NW PA/NE OH.  MEANWHILE...ON WATER VAPOR                
LOOP...MID LVL DRY PUNCH IS SEEN WORKING QUICKLY EWD FROM WRN NY/PA.            
LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA OUTPUT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN               
BRINGING BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN.  TIMING OF FROPA         
LOOKS TO BE ARND 16Z-18Z WRN SXNS...THEN CLOSE TO 00Z IN THE                    
POCONOS/WRN CATSK.  IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IT APPEARS TO THIS FCSTR THAT          
THE DRY ADVCTN ALOFT WILL OUTRUN THE FRNT AND BECOME COLLOCATED WITH            
OUR JUICY LL ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PD LTR THIS AFTN.  THIS           
RAISES SOME INTERESTING CONVECTIVE PSBLTYS WITH RGNL VWP/S SHOWING              
40-50 KT MID LVL FLOW.  BEST CHC FOR ANY SVR WUD BE FROM BGM AND AVP            
EWD DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN PD.  MODIFIED 12Z SNDGS GIVE CAPES ON THE         
ORDER OF 2500 J/KG IF THE SFC CAN HEAT INTO THE LWR 80S.  EVEN THO QUT          
A BIT IN THE WAY OF CLDNS IS HERE NOW...THERE ARE ALSO SOME BRKS OPENING        
UP IN WRN NY AND MANY PLACES ARE ALREADY IN THE M-U 70S.  MAIN LIMITING         
FACTORS ARE WK LAPSE RATES (ONLY 5-6 C/KM) AND BETTER S/W FOCUS STAYING         
N OF THE RGN.  AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME MORE BENEFICIAL +RA CAN BE              
ANTICIPATED.  CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION/WORDING LOOKS FINE FOR THIS AFTN.        
MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK.                                                  
WRK ZNS ARE ON THE STREET.  FINAL RELEASE ARND 10 AM.                           
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 290759  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER REGION THIS MORNING. PILOT REPORTS                   
INDICATING CLOUD TOPS AT 35K FT. CURENTLY SEEEING THIS LOW DECK RISE            
SLIGHTLY BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME BREAKING UP AND                  
FUTURE CU DEVELOPMENT LIKELY THIS AFTN. SO...WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY              
OVER CWA.                                                                       
AS FOR POPS...WILL KEEP AS IS. RUC SHOWING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
HANGING AROUND WITH GOOD INSTABILITIES IN AREA SOUNDINGS. POSSIBLY A            
FEW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS AFTER A LOOK AT LATEST OBS.                                
CWF...WINDS STILL GOING PRETTY WELL AND WILL RETAIN SCA THIS AFTN.              
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGES IF ANY PLANNED BEFORE ISSUANCE                         
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.                          
PJN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 291349  nc                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
910 PM CDT MON JUN 28 1999                                                      
RADAR AND MESONET DATA SHOW THAT COLD FRONT HAD REACHED A VAN BUREN             
TO MCALESTER LINE BY 9 PM.  00Z RUC SHOWS FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE              
SLOW PROGRESS UNTIL IT HANGS UP ALONG THE RED RIVER AROUND 12Z.                 
HOWEVER...FRONT COULD ALSO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE OUACHITA                       
MOUNTAINS.  RADAR IS SHOWING CURRENT TSRA ACTIVITY SOUTH OF MLC                 
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW VOLUME SCANS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD                
CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE IN 30              
POPS IN FAR SE OK THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                
FRONT...AND WHAT THE 00Z RUC SHOWS AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP BY                  
MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL ELIMINATE OVERNIGHT POPS NORTH OF I-40 AND            
TWEAK WINDS A BIT.  CURRENT TEMP FCST RANGING FROM UPR 60S-MID 70S              
LOOKS GOOD.  UPDATED FORECAST SHOULD BE OUT AROUND 935 PM.                      
18Z ETA SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE               
CNTRL PLAINS ON TUE.  WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP            
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACRS KS/NE...THOUGH THIS SETUP COULD SKIRT THE              
NRN ZNS AROUND MID-DAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CURRENT LOW POPS SHOULD              
SUFFICE. OTRW...HIGHER POPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE SRN ZNS ON TUE               
LOOKS GOOD TOO.  COULD BE ANOTHER MCS TOMORROW NIGHT.  WILL NEED TO             
WATCH THIS POSSIBILITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.                                    
22                                                                              
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 282036  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
SFC TROF GS0-MCN LINE CONTS TO DRFT SLOLY EWD THS MRNG. RUC SHWS                
APPRCHG S/W MOVG NEWD AND WKENG. AMS RMNS VRY MOIST WITH LIS -5                 
TO -6 DURG AFTN. WL RAISE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT OVR AREA. TEMPS                 
ON TRCK. TA                                                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 291309  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
UPDATED THE SRN ZONES EARLIER THIS MRNG TO INCR THE CLD COVER AND               
TAKE OUT THE POPS...TO JUST GO SCT. LOCAL 88D'S SHOW PCPN BAND                  
STAYING RIGHT ALONG THE FAR SRN TIER OF CWA...WITH LITTLE OR NO                 
PROGRESS NWD. THIS BAND OF PCPN IS LIKELY CAUSED BY LLVL WAA...                 
DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC LASTING THRU THIS AFTN. BUT ANY NWD                    
PROGRESS WL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS AND             
TOO MUCH STABILITY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN WAVE NOW IN THE WRN              
HIGH PLAINS NR THE BORDER OF THE DKTS AND WY/MT. THIS WAVE WL MOV               
EWRD AND PSBLY SPARK MORE DVLPMENT OF SHWRS ACRS THE NRN HALF OF CWA            
LATE TDAY. OTHERWISE WNDS AND TEMP FCST LOOK REASONABLE...WL UPDATE             
ARND MIDDAY IF ANYTHING WOULD HAPPEN TO GO WRONG.                               
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 291517  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED PRE-FRONTAL TROF NEARING PLATEAU                    
REGION WITH BEST INDICATIONS OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WRN THIRD OF KY                 
AND NW TN.  VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS               
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WITH DEWPTS IN THE 70S...MORE LIKE                
THE GULF COAST.  HOPEFULLY THE LAST SOLID AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING              
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES.  ADDITIONAL RAINS OF                
1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...SO EXTENDED THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM                 
FLOOD ADVISORY THRU NOON.                                                       
THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON                
...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF COLD FRONT.                   
06Z RUC MODEL DEPICTED AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT CWA THIS                 
AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS DO NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE AT ALL.             
OTHERWISE...WILL MONITOR SATELLITE PICS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR            
IMPROVING SKIES BEHIND FRONT.                                                   
TG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 291210  tn                                      

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1005 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
FRONTAL CONVECTION LIES WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER AND                
LATEST RUC NOR PREVIOUS MODELS SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO MAKE MUCH OF             
SOUTHWARD PUSH...EXCEPT FOR SOME PSBL TS OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD AFFECT            
NORTH TEXAS.  HOWEVER NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTION TO COME THIS FAR             
SOUTH SO PLAN ON REMOVING AFTERNOON POPS.  IN ADDITION ATMOSPHERE IS            
MODERATELY CAPPED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM UPPER RDG SO EVEN SEA                  
BREEZE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY GENERATING ANY SHOWERS.  WILL HAVE TO               
ADDRESS PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CWA AND                 
PERHAPS WILL USE WORDING OF BECOMING PC AND KNOCK DOWN FORECAST MAX             
TEMPS A CAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                 
.SAT...NONE.                                                                    
01/13                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 291455  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                     
12Z ANALYSIS HAD SFC FNT BEARING DOWN ON BNA TO CNTRL OH. GOOD                  
PRESSURE RISES IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND             
60S BEHIND THE FNT. 09Z RUC HAD FNT SLOWLY CROSSING INTO THE                    
MOUNTAINS BY 21Z. DON'T THINK IT WL REACH LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAINS                 
UNTIL AFT 00Z. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SEGMENTS OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG FRONT               
AND MOVING INTO RLX FA AND CNTRL TN WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF. AREA OF            
PCPN COMING OUT OF CNTRL TN AND LEADING AREA OF SHRA WL MAINLY PASS             
SOUTH OF CWA. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING HAD CAPES 2500-4000 J/KG AND LIS            
-5 TO -8. PWINS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS PAST FEW DAYS SO WL ADD                   
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. SINCE FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL TNGT                
EXPECT ONLY SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTN SO NO BIG CHANGES IN POPS. BUT             
WILL WATCH FOR INCREASING COVERAGE ON LINE COMING THRU WV. TEMPS                
RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME AS SAME TIME YESTERDAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS TO                
REST OF FCST.                                                                   
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
AMS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 291347  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
IN THE SHORT TERM...ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO FOCUS ON THE                    
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME              
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH THE ETA AND             
NGM MOVES AN AREA OF DYNAMICS ACROSS THAT AREA AND OFF THE ATLANTIC             
COAST BY THIS EVENING WHILE THE RUC SINKS A VORT CENTER MORE SOUTH              
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA COAST. SATELLITE AND                
RADAR DATA SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE RUC SOLUTION WHICH FOCUS THE RAINFALL           
MORE ON THE COASTAL AREAS. THE PRECIPITABLE H2O FROM THE                        
JACKSONVILLE 12Z SOUNDING WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN MONDAY(1.75 VS 2.18            
INCHES) BUT THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF               
SOME LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.                 
WEDNESDAY THE MODELS MOVES THE SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
RAINFALL WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY EAST OF THE AREA             
WHILE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE SOUTH             
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDENT               
ON THE SEABREEZE INTERACTION WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THE FWC            
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGH.             
AMG 74/90/72/90 5434                                                            
SSI 75/85/75/87 5534                                                            
JAX 74/89/73/90 5534                                                            
GNV 72/89/71/90 4534 33                                                         
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 291817  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MDT (300 PM CDT) TUE JUN 29 1999                                         
    ...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...                  
MOISTURE RETURN HAS COMMENCED WITH THETA-E AXIS AND COOL FRONT                  
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING             
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL FORCING TO OUR SOUTH BUT QPF                  
FORECASTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH                
HIGH OMEGA FIELDS. NOGAPS/CANADIAN AND MAPS MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO            
OUR SOUTH AFTER 00Z WHILE ETA/AVN/18Z RUC KEEP WIDESPREAD PRECIP                
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. NGM SHUNTS IT EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WILL TEND             
TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS KEEPING IT SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE              
STATIONARY FRONT AND TO OUR EAST ALONG COOL FRONT. WILL GO SLIGHTLY             
ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND HIGHER MOISTURE.                       
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH                    
STATIONARY FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. PLENTY OF             
MOISTURE IN PLACE. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH Q FILEDS FROM 850-700 SHOWING SOME FORCING            
MOVING THROUGH. ETA/AVN/NGM KEEP US DRY THROUGH DAYTIME HOURS WHILE             
NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS GIVE US SOME PRECIP ALONG AND AHEAD                  
OF LEE TROUGH. WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP FOR KANSAS AND NEBRASKA                    
ZONES AND DRY FOR COLORADO. WILL UNDERCUT A BIT OVER EASTERN ZONES              
DUE TO CLOUDCOVER AND GO NEAR ELSEWHERE.                                        
APPEARS TO BE A BIT DRIER ON THURSDAY WITH NO SO MUCH CLOUDCOVER TO             
BURN OFF. 850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 DEGREES C OR SO. WILL GO ABOVE FWC             
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                    
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.                                  
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF IN AGREEMENT TODAY WITH YESTERDAYS RUN OF                 
DRYING THINGS OUT AND WARMING THINGS UP. TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY            
WILL WARM EACH DAY...FLIRTING WITH 100 ON SATURDAY.                             
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KTOP 291959  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 1999                                                      
AFTN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL SC AND SANDHILLS APPEAR                      
ASSOCIATED WITH 18Z WAVE SHOWN ON RUC...WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS TO COAST            
BY 00Z. THEREFORE WILL KEEP SCT TSTMS IN ALL AREAS THROUGH EARLY WED            
AM.                                                                             
THIS AFTN MOISTURE IS FAIRLY DEEP ACROSS CWA...WV SATPIX AND AVN AND            
ETA MODELS SHOW DECREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING LEADING EDGE            
OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH NOW IN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE                     
APPALACHIANS. BY SUNRISE WED ONLY A LOW LAYER 80 PCT SATURATED                  
REMAINS...WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI FOR CONTG HI DEW POINTS AND             
UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...WI LOW CLOUDS FORMING AT NIGHT AND SLOWLY              
BREAKING UP DURING THE MORNING.                                                 
AS THAT TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST WED NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL            
RIDGING OVER THE AREA...THE DRIER AMS HOLDS THROUGH THU. FOLLOWING              
ANOTHER TROUGH THAT RUNS N UP THE VA APPALACHIANS THU...HOT RIDGING             
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL STATES AND A DEVELOPING BERMUDA HIGH SFC RIDGE            
TO THE S OF THE CWA MAINTAINING A SW SFC WIND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY            
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.                    
CWF: APPCHG FRONT AND FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS                
CRITERIA AT SCA FOR TONIGHT. WILL LOWER WINDS WED AFTN BELOW SCA.               
.ILM...SCA FROM SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.                          
ILM EE 075/088 075/090 075 42222                                                
FLO EE 075/091 075/092 075 42222                                                
MYR EE 077/088 077/089 077 42222                                                
TM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 291814  nc