WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
300 PM MDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SPAWNED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS                 
QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING.  THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE STAYED CLEAR                 
HAVE BEEN SOUTHEAST UTAH EASTWARD TO DURANGO.  EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE            
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THAT REGIONS SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY              
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG PER 20Z LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS.                
18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A MINOR DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED            
LIFT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT REGION THIS EVENING.  MOST                
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GUSTY WIND LITTLE RAIN VARIETY.. BUT THE              
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS NEAR THE DIVIDE ON TUESDAY.                 
DEFORMATION AXIS AT 700 MB GETS ESTABLISHED ASSOCIATED WITH A                   
TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT.  EXPECT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR              
WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES RISING.  MOS GUIDANCE REFLECT THIS WITH                
SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE MID 40S.. NOT EXACTLY HUMID BUT              
HIGHER THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS EARLY              
AFTERNOON.  A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN NORTHWEST           
FLOW ALOFT.. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER TO LAST               
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.  SOME DIRECTIONAL                  
AND SPEED SHEAR WILL AID IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE                
THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                                
ON WEDNESDAY.. MOISTURE DECREASES AS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.               
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST.. BUT MODELS STILL                 
INDICATE A WEAK DEFORMATION FIELD PROVIDING SOME UPWARDS MOTION.                
WILL INDICATE A DECREASING THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALL AREAS.                       
EXTENDED.. MRF SHIFTS STRONG RIDGE AXIS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES               
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  APPEARS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE           
RIDGE THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.. BUT SYNOPTIC               
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
FRISBIE                                                                         
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 142033  co                                      

SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
235 AM MDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE SE CO PLAINS                    
TUESDAY...                                                                      
TODAY/TONIGHT:  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE            
REGION... ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS WHICH RECEIVED A REINFORCING LOW                
LEVEL SURGE OF COOL AIR YESTERDAY.  THE FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY (11 U               
-3.9 U) REVEALED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER ARKANSAS                  
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE REGION AS OF 0800              
UTC. THUS...THE AIRMASS IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...AND WITH ENOUGH             
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP AT LEAST                
ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR TODAY.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT            
WAVE WAS MEANDERING INTO WY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE 0600 UTC              
RUC PROJECTING THIS FEATURE INTO SE WY BY 1800 UTC.  THE MOST LIKELY            
AREA FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE/PIKES PEAK             
REGION WEST INTO THE UPPER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND LEADVILLE                        
AREAS...WHICH COULD EVEN GET GOING BY LATE MORNING WITH A LITTLE                
HELP FROM THE SHORT WAVE.  THE PLAINS EAST OF I-25 WILL HAVE TOO                
MUCH OF A CAP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHEN THE             
SHORT WAVE CLIPS BY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AROUND PEAK SURFACE HEATING                
TIME.  MODEL PROJECTIONS AND MODIFICATION OF CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE MAX CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE MIDDLE ARKANSAS VALLEY                
...WITH ABOUT 0.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER.  THUS... THUNDERSTORMS              
COULD BE RESPECTABLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT SEVERE APART FROM LOCALIZED             
SEVERE HAIL.  MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN                    
YESTERDAY WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS.  CONVECTION SHOULD             
END OVER THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT               
WILL LIKELY LINGER WHEREVER IT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP IN THE SE                     
PLAINS.                                                                         
TUESDAY:  ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL MOIST AIR WILL MAKE ITS             
WAY INTO ERN CO TUESDAY...WITH A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE                   
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.  THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT NW FLOW ALOFT                
COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SUPERCELLS ON THE SE PLAINS.  THIS                  
SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.  IN ANY EVENT...THIS                 
APPEARS TO BE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SE                
CO.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THE COOL               
SURGE ON THE PLAINS.                                                            
WEDNESDAY:  THE PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY COOL...MOIST                 
AIRMASS...WITH THE THREAT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.  THE FLOW ALOFT                
BECOMES MORE WLY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS AS THE                 
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER E.  NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE            
E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.                                                      
THURSDAY/FRIDAY:  CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING FOR THE ERN PLAINS AS            
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...            
FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE ZONE FORECAST.                
THIS PATTERN WILL TEND TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE SAN JUANS AND SAN              
LUIS VALLEY...SO THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE WETTER.                    
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
HAYNES                                                                          
 co                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
940 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
FRONTAL LOCATION...BASED ON DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY...APPEARS TO BE              
ALONG TYS...CHA...MSL...TUP LINE...ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFT EVIDENT AS               
FAR SOUTH AS GVL...TCL...MEI.  WIND SHIFT RESULT OF TSRA COMPLEX                
ALONG FRONT.                                                                    
RUC/ETA MODEL INDICATE THAT BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO AFFECT                
N/CNTRL GA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING LAYERED MOISTURE AND PVA             
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...FRONT MAKES LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING              
NEXT 24 HRS...STILL ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF GA AT 12Z WED.                   
WSR-88D CURRENTLY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ACTIVITY AFFECTING GA...A              
COMPLEX IN THE NE...WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SC...AND ANOTHER               
JUST SOUTH OF ATL AND THEN WSW INTO EASTERN AL.  WHILE SECOND AREA HAS          
PROMPTED SEVERAL FFW IN EASTERN AL...ACTIVITY SHOWING DECREASE AS IT            
MOVES ESE INTO GA.  CONTEMPLATED FFA...BUT RADAR SHOWING A                      
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SOME                   
WARMING EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES.  IN ADDITION...FFG VALUES             
VERY HIGH AS THESE AREAS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON RAINFALL (E.G.,               
CSG IS 12.58 INCHES BELOW NORMAL).  ALL THESE FACTORS POINT TO NO               
NEED TO FFA AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER WILL MONITOR INDIVIDUAL                   
COUNTIES FOR FFW...WHICH ALSO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.  AT             
THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY                       
OVERNIGHT.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN RELEVANT ZONES.                          
CURRENT RUC TRENDS POINT TO LESS CHANCE FOR PCPN TUE THAN                       
TODAY...AND ALSO LESS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN ZONES.                       
HOWEVER...WITH FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS REGION...HIGH                     
DEWPOINTS...AND TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN U.S....TSRA/SHRA              
STILL SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO LATER            
PERIODS.                                                                        
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...AND THUS WILL              
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THEM.  MAY LOWER POPS ONE CATEGORY IN THE               
NORTH AS RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE SOLID COVERAGE.  WILL REMOVE MENTION           
OF TIMING IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN              
NORTH OF FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FRONT.               
WILL ADD MENTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO SOUTHERN                    
ZONES...WELL SOUTH OF FRONT...AS MOST OF THESE AREAS HAD SEVERAL                
HOURS OF FOG THIS MORNING.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS...CONDITIONS             
TUE MORN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON'S.                                            
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
RAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 141916  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1100 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH                
RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. AREAS OF           
FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY            
DENSE ON THE HILLTOPS AROUND JKL. LAST OF THE SHOWERS CLEARING OUR              
EASTERNMOST ZONES. FURTHER NORTH SKIES ARE CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR              
GRADUALLY SEEPING INTO THE STATE.                                               
THE LATEST ETA...MESOETA AND RUC ALL SHOW THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE         
CWA TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE HANGING ON JUST              
ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. WILL UPDATE TO DROP ALL POPS AND WILL ADD            
FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE WINDS ARE NOT SUFFICIENT           
TO PREVENT ITS FORMATION. UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                            
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
GREIF                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 150140  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
240 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
ALL MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVG FNT S OF AREA OVERNIGHT. THE RUC PUSHES              
THE FNT TO DCA BY 03Z WHILE ETA EVEN APPEARS FASTER. ONCE FNT PASSES            
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLR AND PRECIP IS OVER. DEVELOPING MORE SHWRS               
AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FNT NOW ESPECIALLY OVR THE NW PART FA.                   
HOWEVER NONE ARE DEVELOPING VERY QUICKLY INDICATING THE LACK OF                 
INSTABILITY AND LIMITED LIFTING THE ATMOS IS WORKING ON. WILL GO CHC            
POPS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS ENDING BY MIDN W AND ALL NIGHT SE.                     
FNT STALLS S OF FA. THE NGM AND AVN ARE FARTHER S WITH THE FNT THEN             
THE ETA BUT EVEN ON THE ETA POSITION NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY                
SHOWERS TO GET BACK INTO THE SE PART FA ON TUE. WL JUST GO WITH A               
LINGERING MRNG SHWR SE THEN MSTLY CLDY. FARTHER N WL BE PARTLY SUNNY            
WITH NW MSTLY SUNNY.                                                            
SEVERAL WVS PASS ALONG FNT TO S WITH STRONGEST COMING FOR THU. WL               
ALLOW A FEW MORE CLDS N ON WED AS FLOW BACKS SOME BUT STILL NO                  
PRECIP.                                                                         
ON TEMPS WENT CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS WHICH ARE WARMER THEN FAN                    
NUMBERS.                                                                        
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 141334  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
945 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE              
MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINT GET CAPES ARND 2K WITH -4 LI              
AND RUC MODEL ALSO SHOWING THIS.                                                
SATL SHOWS PLENTY OF BREAKS AND WITH W WIND AND 85H TEMPS IN THE MID            
TEENS SHD HEAT NICELY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.                                
RUC MODEL ALSO PICKS UP ON THIS INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN. RUC SHOWS            
A WEAK SW COMING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FNT AND MOVES THIS ACRS THE FA               
DURG THE AFTN GENERATING BEST LIFT ACRS THE N PART FA. ALSO LOOKED              
AT BEST INSTABILITY THERE AS WELL. RAMS MODEL PICKS OUT AN AREA OF              
CONG ACRS THE N AS WELL THIS AFTN. ALL THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME                 
TSTMS DEVELOPING DURG THE LATE AFTN ACRS THE N PART FA WELL AHEAD OF            
MAIN FNT TO THE W. BELIEVE ANOTHER SHOT OF TSTMS WL PUSH INTO THE FA            
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE MAIN FNT.                                                 
LOOKING AT WIND PROFILES AND NOT GREAT FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THIS              
AFTN DO NOT SEE ANY SEVERE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT WITH PRECIP WATERS            
OF 1.5 INCHES OR MORE SHD BE HEAVY RAINERS.                                     
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1014 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
...UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAR SKIES NRN 1/2 CWA...                                  
LATEST SAT IMAGES SHOW AREA OF SC PERVIOUSLY ASSOC WITH COMBINATION OF          
DATE TIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL SHTHWV HAS BECOME DISASSOCIATED WITH            
THAT SHTWV AND IS MOVING MORE TO THE SSE OVER ERN WI AND LK MI.  SOME           
SCT TO BKN SC ALSO OVER CNTL LWR MI BUT THESE WILL DISPATE AS BOUNDRY           
LAYER DISCONNECTS FROM REST OF ATMOSHERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                 
WITH STRONG CAA 925 TO 700 MB THIS EVENING... AND WITH 850 TEMPS                
FALLING TO NEAR 2C OVR CNTL LK MI TONIGHT... AND GIVEN LK TEMPS OVER            
THE SRN PART OF THE LAKE ARE NEAR 20C... DO EXPECT RUC RH FORECAST FOR          
850 TO BE THE BEST.  THAT WOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND           
GIVEN THE LAKE IS MUCH WARMER THEN THE AIR OVER THE LAKE... WOULD               
EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS TO PRESSIST.  SINCE WINDS WILL BE MORE NNW TO NORTH          
BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... CLDS WILL STAY OVER THE LAKE.  SO... WILL         
TAKE CLOUDS OUT OF NRN 1/2 OF CWA OVERNIGHT.                                    
LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINT FALLING NICELY AND           
BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF AFT 09Z SO THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REALLY               
DISCONNECT WITH MID LEVEL ATM AND TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 40 MANY AREAS.             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 150144  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
FCST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS FROST POTENTIAL.                              
LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW STRATOCU FROM THE AFTN HAVE DISSIPATED.                   
MEANWHILE...SCT-BKN AC CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SE INTO FA. WV                
IMAGES SHOW RATHER WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS SW                   
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. SOME HINT OF CIRCULATION EVEN EVIDENT IN IR               
IMAGES AND LAST VIS IMAGES OF THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ONE                 
FACTOR THAT WILL SAVE FA FROM WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT              
AS PERIODIC SCT-BKN AC CLOUDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSE AREA.                 
SFC REPORTS SHOW AREA OF MIN DWPTS...GENERALLY LOWER 30S...                     
EXTENDING FROM NE MN INTO UPPER MI AND N WI. UPSTREAM...DWPTS ON THE            
RISE AGAIN IN NCNTRL MN/SW ONTARIO AHEAD OF SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH            
SHORTWAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS CONSISTENT WITH 12Z MODELS AND 21Z              
RUC DEPICTING AREA OF MIN BOUNDARY LAYER DWPTS SPREADING ACROSS FA              
EARLY IN THE NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SFC                
TROF APPROACHES.                                                                
18Z ETA/21Z RUC SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 10             
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY S FA. SO SFC WIND WOULD BE LIGHT TO ALLOW FOR                
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...A FEW FACTORS WILL PREVENT                  
WIDESPREAD FROST. SCT-BKN AC AT TIMES...INCREASING DWPTS LATER                  
TONIGHT...AND WARM GROUND FROM RECENT WARM WEATHER SHOULD ALL WORK              
TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY             
FROST IN RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKES SHOULD SKIES BE CLEAR FOR A            
TIME OVERNIGHT. THUS...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT PATCHY             
FROST POSSIBILITIES.                                                            
WILL LIKELY UPDATE ZONES ONE MORE TIME LATER THIS EVENING TO CLEAN UP           
WIND WORDING.                                                                   
COORD WITH GRB AND APX.                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 150055  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
850 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
WILL DO AN UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF FROST TO NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN         
UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FORECAST          
AREA... SHOWING MOST LOCATIONS WITH DEW PTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S. LATEST           
RUC SHOWING SURFACE LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS           
AFTERNOON... MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS           
WILL ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL           
LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP DECREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT         
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... DIMINISHING THE WINDS TO UNDER 10 MPH.            
CURRENT VIS AND IR STLT LOOP SHOWING LINGERING CU DIMINISHING WITH              
SUNSET... HOWEVER SCATTERED AC CLOUDS STILL LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF          
EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE AC DECK IN RESPONSE TO A         
VORT MAX MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS           
EVENING. THE VORT CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NRN LAKE HURON                
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP CLOUD COVER SCT TO BKN OVERNIGHT.                   
THE MAIN FACTORS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA FROM WIDESPREAD FROST                
OVERNIGHT... WILL BE WINDS STAYING AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...SCT TO BKN MID          
LEVEL DECK AND A WARM GROUND DUE TO THE ABUNDANT WARM RAIN RECEIVED             
DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS. HOWEVER STILL FEEL CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL          
ALLOW FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT.                                               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 142018  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TEMPS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER.           
CURRENT MID/UPR LVL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY RDG OVER WRN CANADA                
AND DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. WV/IR           
LOOP INDICATED SHRTWV OVER WI MOVING THROUGH BASE OF THE TROF.                  
ASSOCIATED 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WAS SUPPORTING LINGERING                 
BATCH OF -RA OVER FAR SE UPR MI AND NRN LAKE MI AT 0730Z.  SFC OBS AT           
MNM...ESC...ISQ AND ERY WERE NOT INDICATING ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE               
PCPN WITH GENERALLY ONLY MID CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING               
SPRINKLES BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL PCPN AFT 09Z. HIGH CLOUDS            
OVER CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO EXIT BY 12Z AS SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH.              
COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL UPR MI AT 07Z WL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH AREA             
TODAY WITH STRONGER NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE AT CMX AND MQT. H85                 
TEMPS FCST TO DROP OFF QUICKLY TO AROUND -2C BY 18Z PER 00Z ETA AND             
06Z RUC IN LINE WITH 00Z CWPL H85 TEMP AROUND -3C. THIS SHOULD BE               
MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR BKN-OVC STCU DEVELOPMENT NORTH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS          
STILL FROM 3-5C DESPITE DRY ADVECTION. WITH STRONG CAA TEMPS                    
GENERALLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING OVER THE NORTH. LATER ARRIVAL OF             
COLD AIR OVER SOUTH WILL ALLOW MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND.                         
WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE OVER AREA TONIGHT WITH STRONG QVECTOR DIV FROM CAA AND     
DNVA EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT INLAND. ALTHOUGH FWC/FAN FCST OF                 
33/29 SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT FROST THREAT...SEVERAL FACTORS UNFAVORABLE            
FOR TEMPS THAT COLD. GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT WITH NW BNDRY LYR WINDS             
IN 10-20 KNOT RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING.             
WITH LAKE WATER TEMPS CLOSE TO SOUTH END OF LAKE IN THE 6-10C                   
RANGE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS WITH DLT/T TO AROUND            
-12C. AREAS JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE SHOULD ALSO SEE MORE MODIFIED AIR             
AND STRONGER WINDS. SO...GREATEST FROST THREAT...WOULD BE INLAND                
NEAR WI BORDER. WINDS...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN NRN UPR                      
MI...SHOULD ALSO HELP MITIGATE TEMP DROP OVER SOUTH.                            
MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH EFFECTS OF SHRTWV EMERGING FROM               
NRN PLAINS REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF UPR MI ON TUESDAY. WITH SFC RDG OVER          
AREA GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WITH SOME SUNSHINE EARLY.                          
AGAIN...EXPECT MIDDAY SCU DEVELOPMENT WITH LINGERING COLD H85 TEMPS             
AROUND 0C.                                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 140815  mi                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
830 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
CLDS ON THE DECLINE OVR ERN FINGER LKS WITH CDFNT ALG INTERSTATE 81             
CORRIDOR. 18Z RUC HAD FROPA FOR HDSVLY ARND 06Z WHICH MAY BE SLOW               
PER RADAR SPEED. PRE-FNTL SRN SHWR AREA BRKG INTO PIECES WHILE PCPN             
AREA IN ASSOCN WITH CDFNT ITSELF APPEARS TO BE GAINING SOME COVERAGE            
IN SRN FLANK. DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH EXISTING PACKAGE TIMING                 
REQUIRES MUCH ADJUSTMENT.  MCKINLEY/MAC                                         
.ALB...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
*** NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ***                                           
EFFECTIVE AT 900 AM EDT TUESDAY JUNE 15 1999...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE             
REPLACED BY AN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.  THE AREA FORECAST                     
DISCUSSION WILL CONTAIN THE SAME INFORMATION FOUND IN THIS PRODUCT              
AND WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE NWWS HEADER ALBAFDALY AND FOS/WMO HEADER           
FXUS61 KALY.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KBUF 142215  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
300 PM MON JUN 14 1999                                                          
LATEST RUC FCST STILL SHOW MAIN THREAT OF POTNLLY SVR WX OVR ERN CWA            
NR WRN CATSKILLS WHERE LI -2 TO -4...SFC MSTR CONVERGENCE...HIGH                
THETA-E AIR...AND FROPA COMING TOGETHER ARND 00Z-03Z.  00Z AND 03Z              
RUC SOUNDING FOR WRN CATSKILLS SHOWS CAPES LESS ARND 500 J/KG AND LI            
OF -2.5 USING 76/63 TEMP/DWPT.  HWVR CONTD CLD CVR OVR THE E IS                 
STILL PUTTING THE LID ON ANY HTG WITH ONLY BREAKS IN CLDS AHD OF                
MAIN CLD SHIELD HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS SLGTLY.  HELICITY VALS STILL             
IN 150-200 RANGE WHICH IS NOT THAT BAD THOUGH AND THIS MAY ONLY BE              
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO ANY SVR WITH FROPA.  WILL CONT CAT SHWRS FOR             
THIS EVE BUT ONLY MENTION SCT TSTMS OVR ERN CWA AND JUST A FEW TSTMS            
CNTRL AND W WHERE 88D RADAR ONLY SHWG ONE OR TWO MARGINAL CELLS.                
TIMING OF MAIN PCPN WILL CONT TO BE FOR THIS EVE WRN AND CNTRL ZNS              
AND MOST OF EVE TOWARD MIDNGT ERN/SRN ZNS.  MOST OF PCPN WILL END BY            
OR ARND MIDNGT THOUGH WITH CLEARING BEFORE MIDNGT CNTRL AND W AND               
AFT MIDNGT E.  GUSTY WINDS WITH FROPA THIS EVE THEN WINDS WILL                  
DCRS.  HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FOG WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL OF .30             
TO .50 INCHES AND DCRSG WINDS BUT AM NOT EXPECTING CALM WINDS AS FLO            
ALF STILL FAIRLY BRISK.  IF WINDS ARE LIGHTER THERE MAY BE MORE                 
WDSPRD FOG.                                                                     
FOR TMW STRONG SUNSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVG IN ALF BUT BOTH            
ETA/NGM TIME SECTIONS AND BUFKIT DATA SHOW A SHALLOW LYR OF MSTR AT             
LOW LVLS.  WITH CAA ALF AND STRONG JUNE SUN DIURNAL CU FIELD A GOOD             
BET AND LOOKG UPSTREAM SHOWS PLENTY OF CU DVLPG OVR WI/MI.  HAVE                
WORDED AS MRNG SUN THEN PTLY SUNNY.  TEMPS A GOOD DEAL COOLER TMW               
AND WILL FEEL LIKE ERLY SPRING RATHER THAN APPROACHING SOLSTICE.                
MOS AND FAN GUIDANCE SEEEM TO BE IN BALLPARK THOUGH FWC MAYBE A BIT             
HIGH AT SYR.                                                                    
TMW NGT WILL BE QUITE COLD UNDER CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS.  850 TEMPS            
APPROACH 0C NR SYR/UCA SO MID TO UPPER 30S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTN IN             
SOME OF THE COLDER VLLYS.  FOR WED SOME HIGH LVL MSTR MOVES IN SO               
WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY.  WRKZNS OUT.                                           
BGM...NONE.                                                                     
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KOKX 141805  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1000 AM MON JUN 14 1999                                                         
LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS ASSOCD WITH FNTL BNDRY APPROACHG BUF AND                
REMIANS FAIRLY INTACT EXTENDING BACK TO CLE.  EXPECT PCPN TO REACH              
WRN CWA ARND 18Z...INTO CNTRL CWA ARND 20Z...AND FAR ERN CA TOWARDS             
00Z.  WITH ECHOS ON KBUF RADAR FAIRLY CONTINUOUS WILL BUMP UP POPS              
TO CAT OVER ENTIRE CWA.  LOTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS AHD OF FNT WHICH IS             
CUTTING DOWN ON HTG AND LESSENING SVR WX THREAT.  HAVE LOWERED MAX              
TEMPS TDY ACROSS THE BOARD BASED ON AMNT OF LOW CLDS AND FCST SFC               
TEMPS FM LATEST RUC.  MODIFYING RUC SOUNDING DOES SHOW LI OF -5 AND             
CAPE OF 2000 J/KG GIVEN TEMP/DWPT OF 81/66 WHICH IS WORSE CASE                  
SCENARIO SO TSTMS STILL A GOOD BET.  MAIN SVR WX THREAT WOULD BE                
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE AS HELICITY VALS QUITE LOW               
(ARND 150) HWVR ETA AND MESO-ETA SHWS BEST HELICITY VALS (200-230)              
WILL BE OVR FAR ERN CWA TOWARDS 00Z-03Z SO BASED ON TIMING OF FNT               
AND BEST HELICITY VALS BEST SVR WX THREAT OVR ERN CWA LATE THIS                 
AFTN.  IF LOW CLDS MAGICALLY CLR OUT (DOUBTFUL) THE SVR WX TREAT                
WILL BE INCRSD BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL THREAT.  WRKZNS              
OUT.  ZFP OUT SHRTLY.                                                           
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KOKX 141401  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
905 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRNT ACROSS WEST SLOPES OF              
APPALCAHIANS SLOWLY MOVG E. MORNING SNDINGS INDICATE PWS CONTINUING             
TO RISE ACROSS FA. THERE4...WILL SEE CU POP UP THIS AFTN.                       
HOWEVER...NVA ALOFT PER LATEST RUC MODEL WILL HELP PREVENT ANY                  
CONVECTION. WILL WORD PTLY OR MSTLY SUNNY WHERE APPROPRIATE WITH NO             
POPS.                                                                           
TEMPS...CURRNT FCST TEMPS LUK AOK...MAY SEE SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS             
INLAND TODAY AS BNDRY LYR FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THAN SW.                  
CWF...CURRNT FCST ON TRACK. SOUTHERLY WND TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN. WILL            
GROUP ALL ZNS INTO 1.                                                           
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
DCH                                                                             
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
915 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
UPDATE PLANNED. CHANGES WILL BE COSMETIC...MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD AND           
WIND FIELD WORDING. CLOUD FIELD DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND        
AIRMASS STABILIZES...AS WEAK NVA EDGES SEWD ACROSS FGF CWFA. FEW                
SHOWERS ON LEADING EDGE OF CU BAND ARE DIMINISHING AS PER KMVX 88D.             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NERN MANITOBA INTO RRV WITH            
WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW...NERLY SFC WINDS RRV AND WEST AND WEAK NWLY SFC          
WND INTO NRN MN. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH              
TONIGHT THOUGH MAINTAINING NORTHERLY COMPONENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL            
CCA INTO NRN MN...NEAR THERMAL TROF. CURRENT SFC TEMPS COOLING SIMILAR          
TO MOS GUIDANCE...EXPECT COLDEST POOL OF MID 30S LOW TEMPS IN FGF CWFA          
IN BJI TO BDE ZONES. 00Z RUC TARGETS COLD TROF THROUGH NERN MN INTO             
PORTIONS OF NWRN MN...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 142045  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
900 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
00Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS FRONT HANGING UP IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER ERN            
TN. CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF FRONT AND ALONG WEAK FOOTHILLS TROF               
CONTINUES TO FIRE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND NRN        
GA WHERE WHERE INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST. EARLIER RUC MODEL RUNS HAD A           
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WITH STRONGEST 850 TO 500 MB THTE LAPSE SHOWING UP          
IN A BUBBLE OVER SRN GSP CWA THROUGH 06Z. UPPER SUPPORT CONTINUES TO BE         
LACKING SAVE FOR WEAK DIVERGENCE WITH THE JETLET ORIENTED ABOVE THE             
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL PUSH POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER UPSTATE SC AND NE GA         
WITH SOLID COVERAGE. WILL DROP POPS TO 60 NRN ZONES WITH VERY LITTLE            
COVERAGE AT PRESENT BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN        
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A FEW WEAK WAVES SUGGESTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF        
FRONT.                                                                          
WILL OPEN UP A 60 TO 65 MIN TEMP RANGE OVER SRN MTNS GIVEN CURRENT              
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS. WILL BUMP MINS DOWN TO MID 60S NE PIEDMONT                
STATESVILLE AREA TO GEL BETTER WITH SURROUNDING ZONES AND IN LIGHT OF           
SLIGHTLY COOLER DEWPOINTS/WET BULBS.                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
HG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 150102  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
949 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
ATMOS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. 12Z UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW MOISTURE          
MINIMUM ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF        
SFC FNT AS EVIDENCED BY INCREASING CLOUDS ON SAT PIX. 09Z RUC AND 03Z           
ETA BOTH CONTINUE PREVIOUS FCST OF BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS THE         
WEST TODAY. CURRENT FCST OF HIER POPS IN THE WEST AND NO POP IN NC              
PIEDMONT AND WRN SC COUNTIES STILL LOOKS GOOD. TEMPS IN LINE BUT WILL           
CHECK LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS.                                      
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 141254  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
845 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
GOING ZONES ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. KLNX 88D SHOWS -RA TRYING TO PUSH EWD            
THIS EVENING...MAKING IT INTO GREGORY COUNTY...THEN DRYING EAST OF              
THERE. RUC SHOWS PRETTY GOOD STABILITY ACRS CWA TNGT...SO THUNDER               
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN. MAY UPDATE THE SWRN ZONE LATER THIS EVENING              
TO JUST GO CATEGORICAL RAIN IF IT GETS MORE WIDESPREAD. MAY HAVE TO             
WAIT FOR THE LLVL JET TO KICK IN A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER MIDNIGHT               
HOWEVER FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.                                                     
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 150016  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1000 AM MDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
CHANGES TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING INCLUDE FINE TUNING THE WIND                  
DIRECTION AND LOWER HIGHS IN THE NW...AND UPPING THE HIGHS IN THE SE.           
OTHERWISE CURRENT THINKING IS ON TRACK. 15Z SURFACE MAP IS SHOWING              
THE CWA IN TRANSITION FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A RIDGE IN            
THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND LOW PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST                
OVER NEVADA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER                    
SOUTHERN MT WHICH THE RUC AND ETA PICK UP ON IN THE 12Z FORECAST                
DATA THIS MORNING.  THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE CWA                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH              
SHOULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO START FORMING. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING            
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MT...WITH MID CLOUDS IN NW SD. GOOD UPPER                
LEVEL DYNAMICS COME INTO PLAY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS WE HAVE STRONG             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER NE SD AND THERE IS ALSO GOOD 850 MOISTURE            
CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE SW CORNER. LIMITING FACTORS                
WILL BE THE MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S IN THE NEBRASKA             
PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND UP INTO EASTERN MT. WE NEED TO                 
INCREASE DEWPOINTS STILL IN ORDER TO GET THE CAPE OF 1000 J/KG.                 
SHEAR IS ALSO WEAK AND WITH ALL THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS HOLDING                
BACK ON SUNSHINE AND HIGHER TEMPS I WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE              
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE ISOLATED ONES WILL ALWAYS NIP YOU IN               
THE BUD LATER.                                                                  
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK COOL AND WET. IS THIS REALLY JUNE?  BY 18Z            
TUESDAY...THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY IN MT WILL BE IN THE NEBRASKA                
PANHANDLE AND IS INTENSIFIED AS IT ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE TROF.               
ANOTHER JET STREAK STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA             
INTO NE WY BY 00Z WED.                                                          
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
FRANSEN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 141526  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1045 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT HAS DECREASED LAST HOUR AND LOOK AT              
00Z RUC HAS CONVINCED US TO GO AHEAD AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY               
ACROSS AREA.  IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR                 
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE                
CWA.                                                                            
29                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 150134  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
950 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS... WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS... EXTENDED ACROSS               
MIDDLE TN INTO NORTHERN AL AND MS. 12Z BNA... 09Z RUC AND 03Z MESO-             
ETA SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE CAPES ABOUT 2000 J/KG TO WORK WITH                   
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FRONT FROM SDF-MEM.             
THIS ALL SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS               
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL AT BEST                
WITH WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 13K FEET... AND LITTLE SHEAR WITH WSW                
FLOW AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY UP.                                          
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN... WILL LOWER TEMPS IN A FEW OF THE ZONES              
BY ABOUT ONE CATEGORY.                                                          
RBP                                                                             
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
840 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN AFTER DAY OF SLOW MOVING                     
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.  LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS DIVERGENT SFC                
FLOW OVER MOST OF CWFA AND CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF.  FAR WESTERN                
CWFA IN SFC CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT            
DIMINISHING QUICKLY.  RADAR MOSAIC IS INTERESTING SINCE IT IS                   
SHOWING A CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF WEBB                
COUNTY.  THIS ROTATION IS JUST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF 500HPA VORT MAX ON             
21Z RUC.  THIS VORT MAX IN PROGGED THROUGH CWFA TONIGHT AND COULD               
KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE               
WILL NEED TO RECOVER FIRST.  CURRENT FCST HAS POPS ONLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.         
SO WILL WAIT TO UPDATE...LOOK AT NEWER DATA...AND SEE IF POPS ARE               
NEEDED FOR ENTIRE NIGHT.  REMAINDER OF CURRENT FCST OK.  WITH ALL OF            
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AROUND...WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT                 
SHOULD GO L/V MOST ZONES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR            
CURRENT MARINE/CWF FORECAST.                                                    
78                                                                              
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 150138  tx                                      

NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  FORT WORTH TX                                         
1253 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS H85 FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST                 
SOUTH OF METROPLEX. MORNING RUC AND VAPOR CHANNEL DO SHOW SOME PVA              
TO SWING ACROSS N TEXAS TODAY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCES FOR                       
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF H85 FRONT.              
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS PRETTY WELL IN HAND. WILL NEED TO LOWER               
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING LOOK TOO WEAK              
FOR 15 TO 25 MPH (KFWD VAD ONLY HAS 15KTS IN SECOND GATE). 10 TO 20             
MPH LOOKS CLOSER WITH LIGHTER WINDS SOUTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK             
GOOD AT THIS TIME. (80)                                                         
...AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                       
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT COMBINED ERLATIVELY LIGHT           
WINDS WITH SURFACE HEATING...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST           
OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...THEN RAISING TO ABOVE 30 KFT             
IN THE 21Z-23Z TIME FRAME.  WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT VFR                   
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z. THANKS FOR COORDINATION...CWSU ZFW.  JPS/05               
FTW...NONE.                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 141655  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
1154 AM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
SCT SHRA/TSRA ONGOING S WHERE SHRTWV ENERGY/LOW LEVEL MSTR                      
CONVERGENCE CONCENTRATED. 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH PW'S S AND            
WEAK FLOW S SO HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER LIFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH           
THE DAY AS DEEP LAYER OMEGA DIMINISHES AS DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH 3H             
JETLET LESSENS. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL S                
WITH REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN STILL REPORTED BREWSTER/PECOS COUNTIES.              
DESPITE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL GO WITH FFA FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE                
EXTENSION.                                                                      
GPM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KAMA 141616 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY                                            
105 PM MDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
S/W MOVG SE NR A KBIL TO KBPI LINE AT 18Z.  CLD CANOPY OVR NE HALF OF           
STATE RETREATING WITH CONVECTION FIRING OFF ON CLD/CLR BOUNDARY.                
-SHRA AND VIRGA MOISTENED MID LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE EARLIER TDA.  AS             
THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS E INTO HIGHER DEWPOINTS LATER THIS AFTN AND                
EVE...TS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  BEST INSTABILITY OVR E ZNS BUT             
TIMING CRITICAL TO GET MAX HTG GOING BEFOREHAND.  15Z RUC FCST                  
SOUNDING HAS -6 LI/S AND NEARLY 1600 J/KG CAPES OVR CPR AT 00Z WITH             
LESS INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  VORT MAX PROGGED BY ETA TO             
DIVE INTO NE WY AT 00Z AND THEN OUT INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AT 15/06Z.            
THUS EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR E CEN WY BTWN 00Z AND 03Z WITH              
INSTABILITY/PVA/AND DYNAMIC LIFTING.                                            
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES S AND W ACRS E OF DIVIDE TGT BEHIND S/W             
WITH A COUPLE OF MORE MINOR S/W ON ITS HEELS IN NW FLOW.  LIGHT                 
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING LOW CLDS AND FOG UP INTO CPR LATE TGT                    
ESPECIALLY IF PREDICTED PCPN OCCURS THIS EVE.  AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST            
UP TO 700 MB BEHIND FRONT THRU TUE FOR LOTS OF CLDS AND COOLER TEMPS            
IN CEN AND E.  WAA ABV 5H AND COOL POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SETTLING IN             
BELOW WILL KEEP AIRMASS STABLE TUE OVR CEN AND E.  SOME INSTABILITY             
OVR FAR WEST TUE AFTN WITH LI/S -2 AND CAPES 400 TO 500 J/KG SO WILL            
MTN ISOLD THERE.                                                                
LOW CLDS AND FOG TO BE A CONCERN ARND CPR AGAIN TUE NGT.  AVN RUN               
SHOWS RDG AXIS SHIFTING E TO W BRDR ON WED WITH FRONT ALONG EAST                
SLOPES RETREATING AND AIRMASS DRYING FROM W.  HIGHER RH VALUES REMAIN           
FROM SE WY UP THRU CPR FOR ISOLD LATE DAY STORMS.  EXTENDED ON TRACK            
WITH MRF SHOWING S/W MOVG ACRS N THU FOR SCT POPS NORTH ZNS THEN                
CLOSED HIGH NR FOUR CRNRS BUILDS NWD INTO FA FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND          
ISOLD MTN STORMS FRI AND SAT.                                                   
AEM                                                                             
.RIW...NONE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KCYS 140933 COR  wy                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
940 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
FRONTAL LOCATION...BASED ON DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY...APPEARS TO BE              
ALONG TYS...CHA...MSL...TUP LINE...ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFT EVIDENT AS               
FAR SOUTH AS GVL...TCL...MEI.  WIND SHIFT RESULT OF TSRA COMPLEX                
ALONG FRONT.                                                                    
RUC/ETA MODEL INDICATE THAT BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO AFFECT                
N/CNTRL GA EARLY TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING LAYERED MOISTURE AND PVA             
OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...FRONT MAKES LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING              
NEXT 24 HRS...STILL ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF GA AT 12Z WED.                   
WSR-88D CURRENTLY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF ACTIVITY AFFECTING GA...A              
COMPLEX IN THE NE...WHICH IS RAPIDLY MOVING INTO SC...AND ANOTHER               
JUST SOUTH OF ATL AND THEN WSW INTO EASTERN AL.  WHILE SECOND AREA HAS          
PROMPTED SEVERAL FFW IN EASTERN AL...ACTIVITY SHOWING DECREASE AS IT            
MOVES ESE INTO GA.  CONTEMPLATED FFA...BUT RADAR SHOWING A                      
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL AS SOME                   
WARMING EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES.  IN ADDITION...FFG VALUES             
VERY HIGH AS THESE AREAS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON RAINFALL (E.G.,               
CSG IS 12.58 INCHES BELOW NORMAL).  ALL THESE FACTORS POINT TO NO               
NEED TO FFA AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER WILL MONITOR INDIVIDUAL                   
COUNTIES FOR FFW...WHICH ALSO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.  AT             
THIS POINT...WOULD EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY                       
OVERNIGHT.  WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN RELEVANT ZONES.                          
CURRENT RUC TRENDS POINT TO LESS CHANCE FOR PCPN TUE THAN                       
TODAY...AND ALSO LESS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN ZONES.                       
HOWEVER...WITH FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS REGION...HIGH                     
DEWPOINTS...AND TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN U.S....TSRA/SHRA              
STILL SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND THUS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO LATER            
PERIODS.                                                                        
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...AND THUS WILL              
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THEM.  MAY LOWER POPS ONE CATEGORY IN THE               
NORTH AS RADAR DOES NOT INDICATE SOLID COVERAGE.  WILL REMOVE MENTION           
OF TIMING IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH BEST PCPN CHANCES REMAIN              
NORTH OF FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FRONT.               
WILL ADD MENTION OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG TO SOUTHERN                    
ZONES...WELL SOUTH OF FRONT...AS MOST OF THESE AREAS HAD SEVERAL                
HOURS OF FOG THIS MORNING.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS...CONDITIONS             
TUE MORN SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO MON'S.                                            
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
RAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 141916  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
337 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR                   
FORECAST AREA WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROF LOCATED OVER EASTERN CO.                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPR SHRTWVS IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER                    
FLOW OVR WRN NE AND IN NORTHWEST WYOMING PRESENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE           
03Z RUC PROG.  AS THIS SHRTWV ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL           
PLAINS LATER TODAY...PRIMARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WHETHER THESE             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS A MCS INTO OUR FORECAST             
AREA LATER TONIGHT IS THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY.                          
ETA AND NGM TIME SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MID LVL MSTR ACROSS THE               
AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A 200 MB UPR JET IS EXPECTED TO NOSE                       
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND             
EXTREME WRN MO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ON THE OTHER                  
HAND...A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT LOW LVL JET TO SUSTAIN APPROACHING               
CONVECTION AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY ARE TWO FACTORS WEIGHING AGAINST           
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EVER REACHING OUR AREA.  THERE IS SOME                 
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE ETA MODEL PROGS...WHETHER THERE WL BE              
SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MSTR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER NEGATIVE              
FACTOR AGAINST SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY IS THAT THE BEST              
UPR SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE                
NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                              
I BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE RETURN FLOW                     
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCS.  THUS...I WL INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI FOR             
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE MORE A NOCTURNAL EVENT FOR              
OUR WRN FORECAST AREA.  I WL DROP THE MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THE REST             
OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT           
WL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.                                               
NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                                   
THANKS TO STL FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING.                                    
(PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY)                                
CCF                                                                             
SGF UE 078/054 073/053 071 100133                                               
JLN UE 079/058 073/053 071 100331                                               
UNO UE 080/055 075/055 073 100133                                               
VIH UE 078/053 070/050 070 100133                                               
VESPER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMCI 150802  mo                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
915 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
UPDATE PLANNED. CHANGES WILL BE COSMETIC...MAINLY TO ADJUST CLOUD AND           
WIND FIELD WORDING. CLOUD FIELD DISSIPATING AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES AND        
AIRMASS STABILIZES...AS WEAK NVA EDGES SEWD ACROSS FGF CWFA. FEW                
SHOWERS ON LEADING EDGE OF CU BAND ARE DIMINISHING AS PER KMVX 88D.             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NERN MANITOBA INTO RRV WITH            
WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW...NERLY SFC WINDS RRV AND WEST AND WEAK NWLY SFC          
WND INTO NRN MN. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH              
TONIGHT THOUGH MAINTAINING NORTHERLY COMPONENT DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL            
CCA INTO NRN MN...NEAR THERMAL TROF. CURRENT SFC TEMPS COOLING SIMILAR          
TO MOS GUIDANCE...EXPECT COLDEST POOL OF MID 30S LOW TEMPS IN FGF CWFA          
IN BJI TO BDE ZONES. 00Z RUC TARGETS COLD TROF THROUGH NERN MN INTO             
PORTIONS OF NWRN MN...CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FCST PACKAGE.                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 142045  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
218 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
SFC FRONT PARALLEL TO UPR FLOW AND APPALACHIAN MTNS EARLY THIS MRNG.            
BEST MSTR AND DYNAMICS IS S OF FCST AREA BUT AS SYS CONT TO APCH FROM           
THE W TDA...XPC DEEP RH GRTR THAN 70 PCNT WITH GOOD UPR LVL DVRGNC              
AND OMEGA. RUC SHOWS SLIGHT DCRS IN MSTR LATER TDA...OTRWS LTL CHG.             
WILL UP POPS MOST AREAS FOR TDA AND TNGT. WED RMNS UNSETTLED AS UPR             
JET RMNS VCNTY SE US.                                                           
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BTWN SOME 15/00Z MDL RUNS FOR LATE WED. NGM SHOWS             
QUITE AN ACTIVE SCENARIO FOR LATE WED WITH HI MSTR...VERY STG UPR LVL           
DVRGNC AND OMEGA...ETA HAS GOOD AMT MSTR BUT MUCH WEAKER DYNAMICS.              
AVN SIMILAR TO ETA SO WITH NGM SUSPECT ATTM PLAN NO BIG CHANGES FOR             
WED OR LATER PDS.                                                               
AVL 74/65/70/64 998                                                             
CLT 80/68/74/66 999                                                             
GSP 80/68/75/67 999                                                             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 150158 AMD  sc                                  

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
840 PM CDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                      
ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO SETTLE DOWN AFTER DAY OF SLOW MOVING                     
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN.  LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS DIVERGENT SFC                
FLOW OVER MOST OF CWFA AND CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF.  FAR WESTERN                
CWFA IN SFC CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER BUT            
DIMINISHING QUICKLY.  RADAR MOSAIC IS INTERESTING SINCE IT IS                   
SHOWING A CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF WEBB                
COUNTY.  THIS ROTATION IS JUST SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF 500HPA VORT MAX ON             
21Z RUC.  THIS VORT MAX IN PROGGED THROUGH CWFA TONIGHT AND COULD               
KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT...HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE               
WILL NEED TO RECOVER FIRST.  CURRENT FCST HAS POPS ONLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.         
SO WILL WAIT TO UPDATE...LOOK AT NEWER DATA...AND SEE IF POPS ARE               
NEEDED FOR ENTIRE NIGHT.  REMAINDER OF CURRENT FCST OK.  WITH ALL OF            
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AROUND...WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE BUT                 
SHOULD GO L/V MOST ZONES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.  NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR            
CURRENT MARINE/CWF FORECAST.                                                    
78                                                                              
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 150138  tx                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER FA WITH                     
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. WIDELY SCATTERED                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF               
STREAM. LATEST CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH WEAK            
FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVELS STILL WARM WITH 500 MB TEMP IS STILL WARM AT             
-6 C.                                                                           
WITH WEAK EARLY WAVE APPROACHING S FL LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT               
HAS BEEN ACROSS FCST AREA LAST TWO DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK                
ASSENT AT LEAST OVER SRN AREAS. WEAK LOW LEVEL SRLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO            
SLOW PROGRESS OF ECSB COMPARED TO PAST DAYS. WITH INC MOISTURE                  
EXPECT BEST TSTM COVERAGE IN S FA TODAY. DON'T SEE ANY REASON TO                
ALTER FORECAST ATTM.                                                            
MARINE...VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD INCREASE               
WITH APPROACH OF WEAK WAVE. RUC/MESO-ETA INDICATE VARIABLE FLOW                 
BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN. NO MAJOR CHGS TO FCST EXPECTED.                         
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 151354  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                     
VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER GA WITH MUCH MORE UNSTABLE                    
CONDITIONS OVER S PART OF STATE. 12Z MODIFIED CAPES AT FFC ARE UNDER            
200 (FOR MAX OF 80) WHILE AT TLH OVER 2000 (FOR 90). SFC FRONT NEAR             
AHN-ATL LINE AT 14Z. 12Z RUC IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH              
ENERGY MOVING INTO E AND CENTRAL PART OF GA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE            
NVA SPREADS INTO NW GA. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CUT BACK ON POPS IN NW             
WHILE EMPHASIZING HEAVIER RAIN IN LATE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND                 
EAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH TRAINING CELLS FOR POSSIBLE FFA ATL-AHN                
SOUTHWARD INTO IN CENTRAL GA. TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT WILL                
MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS AFTER 15Z OBS.                                   
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
DH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 150703  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                     
HAVE CLDS OVR SRN PART FA AT THIS TIME. SATL SHOWS A SLOW S PUSH TO             
THESE CLDS. SOME SHWRS WL MOVE ACRS THE SE PART FA INTO ERLY AFTN               
AND THE RUC PICKS THIS UP NICELY WITH DECENT MOISTURE AND GOOD VV               
THERE ARND 15Z. ALL MODELS THEN SLOWLY DRY ATMOS OVR SE AND WL JUST             
MENTION SHWRS INTO ERLY AFTN.                                                   
THE CLDS TO THE NW OF FA SHD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE ACRS THE MTNS               
BUT RUC AND 03Z ETA DO BRING A LITTLE OF THIS MOISTURE SE AND THIS              
SHD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE PTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MSTLY SUNNY.                        
CURRENT TEMP FCST LOOKS GOD EXCP OVR SE WHERE WILL LOWER MAXES.                 
REMAINDER OF FCST HOLDS FOR NOW.                                                
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 150734  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1014 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999                                                     
...UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAR SKIES NRN 1/2 CWA...                                  
LATEST SAT IMAGES SHOW AREA OF SC PERVIOUSLY ASSOC WITH COMBINATION OF          
DATE TIME HEATING AND MID LEVEL SHTHWV HAS BECOME DISASSOCIATED WITH            
THAT SHTWV AND IS MOVING MORE TO THE SSE OVER ERN WI AND LK MI.  SOME           
SCT TO BKN SC ALSO OVER CNTL LWR MI BUT THESE WILL DISPATE AS BOUNDRY           
LAYER DISCONNECTS FROM REST OF ATMOSHERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                 
WITH STRONG CAA 925 TO 700 MB THIS EVENING... AND WITH 850 TEMPS                
FALLING TO NEAR 2C OVR CNTL LK MI TONIGHT... AND GIVEN LK TEMPS OVER            
THE SRN PART OF THE LAKE ARE NEAR 20C... DO EXPECT RUC RH FORECAST FOR          
850 TO BE THE BEST.  THAT WOULD KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT AND           
GIVEN THE LAKE IS MUCH WARMER THEN THE AIR OVER THE LAKE... WOULD               
EXPECT LAKE CLOUDS TO PRESSIST.  SINCE WINDS WILL BE MORE NNW TO NORTH          
BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION... CLDS WILL STAY OVER THE LAKE.  SO... WILL         
TAKE CLOUDS OUT OF NRN 1/2 OF CWA OVERNIGHT.                                    
LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERNIGHT AS DEWPOINT FALLING NICELY AND           
BEST CAA WILL SHUT OFF AFT 09Z SO THAT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REALLY               
DISCONNECT WITH MID LEVEL ATM AND TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 40 MANY AREAS.             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 150144  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
959 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF CHS CWA AND EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT AS                   
DEPICTED BY RUC. S/W THAT BROUGHT PRECIP TO CENTRAL GA/SC AND THE               
UPSTATE PORTIONS WILL PUSH INTO NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER                  
VAPOR IMG SHOWS DRY AIR PUSHING BEHIND S/W AS WELL AND VSBY SHOWS               
CLEARING ACROSS SE GA AND S SC. WL IMPROVE SKY CONDS TO PC AND DROP             
POPS TO 20/30 PERCENT. LIKE BEST CHNC OF SHRA WITH SEA BRZ THIS                 
AFTERNOON. RUC SHOWS BEST PRECIP ACROSS MIDLANDS. TEMPS LOOK OK.                
ATMOS REMAINS VERY WET WITH PWS AT CHS FROM 12Z RUN 2.2 INCHES. AREAS           
THAT SEE RAIN COULD GET A DRENCHING. WITH HIGH WET BULBS AND NOT MUCH           
WIND OR DRY AIR UPSTAIRS DONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR.                       
CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED AT BUOY 41008 THUS FAR              
THIS MORNING AND LOOKING AT LATEST RAPID UPDATE CYCLE MAY HAVE TO               
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GEORGIA WATERS. OTHERWISE MARINE                 
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.                                      
.CHS...                                                                         
.SC...NONE                                                                      
.GA...NONE                                                                      
JCI                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 151357  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
957 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
NEARLY STATIONARY SFC FRONT AND JUICY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA THIS             
MORNING. KGSP SHOWS MOST ECHOES ACROSS NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND SC             
COUNTIES OF CLT METRO AREA. 09Z RUC AND 03Z ETA SHOW DEEP MOISTURE TO           
REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE A BRIEF END TO PRECIP           
BEFORE NEXT WAVE MOVES THRU THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS.            
CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAVE HELP TEMPS DOWN BUT ARE NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM            
FCST HIGHS. MAY HAVE TO TREND SOME LOCATIONS DOWNWARD BUT WILL WAIT FOR         
LATEST DATA TO BE SURE.                                                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 300109  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
952 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS               
RIGHT ALONG A TRI-TYS-CHA LINE. THEN THERE WERE SOME OTHER CLOUDS               
ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHEAST KY. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE             
MOVEMENT OF THAT BACK EDGE TO THE EAST. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                    
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CWA.               
THE 12Z RUC CU SCHEME INDICATED GOOD CU POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...             
AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING... AS WELL AS THE                
MESO-ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THIS... WILL STAY WITH THE           
MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CWA... EVEN THOUGH THERE                 
WILL BE SOME BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR SOME SUN.  IN THE NORTHERN                     
PLATEAU... TRI CITIES AND SOUTHWEST VA AREAS... THERE WILL CONTINUE             
TO BE DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN... SO THAT A MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY                
SUNNY SKY IS EXPECTED.                                                          
THOSE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED ABOUT 1000-1200 J/KG OF CAPE IN                     
SOUTHEAST TN THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY... CAPES WILL               
BE NEAR 1000 IF DEW POINTS STAY CLOSE TO THE MID 60S. HOWEVER... IF             
THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST MAKES A BIG PUSH INTO THE REGION...              
THOSE CAPES DROP TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. WITH NE FLOW... THERE IS               
NO REAL UPSLOPE. THE ONLY REAL BOUNDARY TO GET CONVECTION STARTED               
WILL BE THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE                   
CLOUDS. ALSO THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW COULD HELP TO GET CONVECTION                
STARTED. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE              
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...BUT WILL LOWER THE POPS. ALSO WITH                
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG... WILL ADD A POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM TO SOUTHEAST           
TN AND FAR SOUTHWEST NC.                                                        
FINALLY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE WARM STARTING TEMPS THIS                     
MORNING...WILL RAISE TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THIS AGREES WELL WITH              
THE LAMP DATA.                                                                  
RBP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 150710  tn                                      

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
945 AM MST TUE JUNE 15 1999                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OVER OUR AREA. THE FLOW            
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT IT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO           
SEEP INTO THE STATE. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE            
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS            
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL           
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...TURNING THE WINDS            
ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY...THEREBY LIMITING THE MOISTURE AND REDUCING THE            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DATA FLOW STILL VERY LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BUT WHAT LITTLE WE HAVE             
SEEN SHOWS NOTHING MAJOR DIFFERENT FROM SCENARIO THAT MID SHIFT WAS             
PAINTING.  THAT MEANS A SLUGGISH UPPER LEVEL HIGH WITH SIGNIFICNT LOW           
AND MID LVL MSTR FOR MID JUNE.   12Z SOUNDINGS INCOMPLETE...BUT THEY            
AT LEAST SHOWED AN INCREASE IN MSTR THROUGH VARIOUS DEPTHS.  FGZ WAS            
MOIST BTWN 16K AND  21K FT.  TUS HAD MODEST INCREASES AT  850MB AND             
MODEL DATA PER NGM HAD PERSISTING MODERATE TO HIGH DEW PTS AT 850 MB.           
SFC DEW PTS SHOT UP TO MID 60S AT IMPERIAL-EL CENTRO EARLIER TODAY.             
THE LATEST RUC/NGM LOOKED GOOD FOR SHORT TERM THICKNESS PATTERN AS              
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SE CALIF INTO CNTRL NV. WTR VPR LOOP HAS            
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AND CURRENT FCSTS LOOK GOOD. THE           
BIG THING TO WATCH WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCD WITH HIGH-BASED             
TSTMS AS MSTR SUPPLY AND INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE.                
SIPPLE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 151627  az                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
225 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE                     
NORCAL COAST WITH THE MAIN VORT CENTER BRUSHING THE PAC NW COAST.               
OUTSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER              
NOT MUCH RH TO DEAL WITH BASED ON WV IMAGERY AND SOUNDINGS FROM                 
VBG/OAK. WITH THE EXEPTION OF KBFL...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SJV                
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MAX DEPARTURE                
ACROSS THE NORTH AS MARINE AIR MOVES SOUTH.                                     
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF                   
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. VERY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS TO AFFECT THE CWFA                  
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING                     
THE COOLING CONFINED TO BENEATH 700 MB. HEIGHT RECOVERY TO BEGIN                
LATE WEDNESDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER                    
THE AREA. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE NGM/AVN TEMPERATURE                    
GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE NUMBERS APPEAR TOO WARM SO WILL UNDERCUT A FEW            
DEGREES EACH PERIOD. TOMORROW SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY FOR IN THE              
SJV WITH COOLER MARINE AIR SETTLED INTO THE AREA.                               
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE                  
ETA BEING STRONGEST THIS EVENING SHOWING A 12 MB SFO/LASADIENT.                 
THIS IS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN THE RUC/AVN/NGM BUT WILL GO                     
WITH THE TIGHTER SOLUTION AND KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SJV                 
TONIGHT. THE MARINE PUSH WILL TRANSLATE INTO BREEZY/GUSTY                       
WINDS THROUGH THE KERN MOUNTAIN PASSES AND IN THE DESERT. THE WINDS             
ALOFT ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND TOO MUCH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO WORRY                
ABOUT A WAD AT THIS POINT.                                                      
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
FAT UU 060/089 062/092 064 97000                                                
BFL UU 059/087 060/090 062 97000                                                
YNP UU 048/081 049/083 051 97000                                                
LINDQUIST                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KEKA 152122  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
230 PM PDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
IN THIS AFTERNOON/S ISSUE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TRINITY COUNTY AND SHOWERS OVER THE INLAND                   
SECTIONS OF THE TWO NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES. THE TEMPERATURE CURVE            
WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COOLER MID LEVEL FLOW            
FOLLOWING THE UPPER FRONT MOVES OVER THE FA. LATEST RUC2 INDICATING             
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES AND ZERO CIN VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE             
TRINITYS AND EXPECT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH THROUGH             
THE EVENING.                                                                    
LARGE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD EXTENDING FROM THE LITTORAL ZONE INTO THE             
OFFSHORE WATERS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY MIX OUT THROUGH                
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DESCENDS AND                     
ACCELERATES ALONG THE 295K SURFACE. APPEARS THE COASTAL CLOUDS WILL             
THEN BE LIMITED TO AREAS WITH PATCHY FOG LATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER             
OF THE PERIOD AS THE CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WEAK WITHIN A DRIER              
AIR MASS APPROACHING THE COAST. WILL ADJUST MOS TEMPS DOWN ONE                  
CATEGORY FOR THE INLAND ZONES TOMORROW AS TEMPS TODAY ARE ABOUT 8               
DEGREES LOWER FROM YESTERDAY AND ADJUST ONE OR TWO DEGREES LOWER THU.           
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES           
ABOVE NORMAL. A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT THU AND WILL             
PUSH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND LOWER THE INLAND TEMPS ONE            
OR TWO DEGREES FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH AND STRENGTHEN THE           
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                            
SWINEGUARD                                                                      
.EKA...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSGX 152104  ca                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
305 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 1999                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EARLY PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD.         
MODELS IN OVERALLL AGREEMENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES. NGM         
HANDLED VORT CENTER OVR NW ND BETTER THAN ETA HOWEVER FEEL NGM QPF              
OVERDONE. CURRENT RUC FOLLOWED IN NEAR TERM HANDLING MID AND LOW LEVEL          
FEATURES BEST.                                                                  
HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST DRAGGING LAST S/W THROUGH        
FA OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN ND VORT WK SFC LOW DEVELOPED WEST          
OF BIS. WK E-W TROUGH FROM SFC ANALYSIS...AND VIS LOOP EXTENDS FROM             
ARROWHEAD BISECTING FA TO LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG                
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. KMVX-88D INDICATING WK SHOWERS ALONG BOUNDARY.             
MODELS SHOWING WK BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST CONVERGENCE VCNTY OF BOUNDARY AND        
ETA INDICATING WK H8 THETA-E LOBE ACROSS SOUTHERN FA THIS EVENING SO            
MENTION OF PCPN NEEDED FOR EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF FA.           
AIRMASS STABLE AND MOIST SCANT SO ONLY ISOLD/WDLY SCT SHRA EXPECTED.            
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF S/W NVA INCREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG WITH           
ADVANCING DRIER AIR AS SFC AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO FA. CURRENT          
VIS LOOP INDICATING CLOUD COVER BEHIND BOUNDARY CELLULAR SO CLEARING            
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH WITH MORE CLDS ACROSS THE SOUTH VCNY OF TROUGH.           
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. STILL SOME               
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL RH FROM AREA TIME SECTIONS HOWEVER ONLY SCT CU               
EXPECTED WITH LACK OF FORCING SO BECOMING OR MOSUNNY SHOULD WORK. H8            
TEMPS AND THICKNESS CHANGE VERY LITTLE TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO               
TODAY.                                                                          
SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST.         
H8 TEMPS AND THICKNESS INCREASE THURSDAY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.             
FWC/FAN GUIDANCE SIMILAR AND HANDLES ABOVE MENTIONED TRENDS SO                  
GENERALLY FOLLOWED. JUDGING BY STRENGTH OF WARMING REMAINED                     
CONSERVATIVE ON TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.                                             
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
UPPER AIR PATTERN MODIFIES OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS MORE ZONAL               
FLOW DOMINATES OVER CONUS REGION. WESTERN CANADIAN H5 RIDGE SLOWLY              
PROPAGATES EASTWARD DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UKMET INDICATE                  
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE FRIDAY. SFC GRADIENT           
SHOULD PICK UP AT THAT TIME AS POLAR HIGH CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD.        
WARM ADVECTION AND DEVELOPING H8 LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN                    
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY AS WARM AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION.         
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD LINGER IN                
SATURDAY MORNING. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE             
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.                                                       
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER/BRAMER                                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 151518  nd