FXUS63 KDDC 272017
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2003


DAYS 1-2...

A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INCLUDING
TEMPS, FOG/STRATUS, AND CONVECTION.

19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW IN MSLP FIELD SOUTH OF KCDS WITH A
VORTICITY CENTER IN THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND KGAG.  JUST NORTH OF
THIS SFC VORT CENTER, STRATUS AND BR CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MY FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID 50S.  VISIBILITIES HERE IN DODGE
CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 1SM WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE.  THIS SFC LOW IS A
BIT MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT THE ETA SUGGESTED AS MID LEVEL VORT
MAX OVER NM APPEARS STRONGER ON WV LOOP THAT WHAT MODELS EARLIER
SUGGESTED.  THIS VORT MAX IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
POTENT SUBTROPICAL JET (STJ) NOSING INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE MODELS
ARE NOTORIOUS FOR UNDER-DEVELOPING THESE SYSTEMS SPUN UP BY THE STJ.
UNFORTUNATELY, THESE SUBTLETIES IN THE STJ CAN LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT
EVOLUTION OF THE MSLP AND SURFACE WIND FIELDS.

THE UKMET AND GFS MODEL SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MSLP AND SFC WIND FIELDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND I GENERALLY WILL FOLLOW THE OUTPUT OF THESE SOLUTIONS IN
THE FCST.  I HAVE BASICALLY THROWN OUT THE ETA MODEL AS IT TRIES TO
BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOO QUICKLY TOMORROW.  AFTER
DELIBERATING FOR AWHILE ABOUT THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT
AND MSLP FIELD TOMORROW...AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
(THANKS GLD, ICT, OUN, GID)...FEEL THAT HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S, AND THIS MAY BE EVEN TOO WARM. A
WEAK HIGH AT THE SURFACE WILL LINGER TO MY NORTH DURING MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW, KEEPING SFC WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.  AS
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE SFC CIRCULATION,
STRATUS WILL GO NOWHERE.  I WAS ORIGINALLY CONCERNED ABOUT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FOR TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS
THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY...LESS OF AN UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORY...THUS WILL LET THE SWING SHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION
FURTHER FOR ANY FOG HEADLINES TOMORROW MORNING.

WITH THE SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH AND WEST OF MY AREA, SFC
BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF MY CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.  THE SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATE IN THE EVENING TOMORROW AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO
40S AND 50S IN THE LATE EVENING.  MODE OF CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ELEVATED MULTICELL HAILERS.  GFS MODEL KEEPS LARGE MCS DEVELOPMENT
WELL TO THE SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.

TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH THE SFC
FRONT. BASED ON THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SFC FRONT, TUESDAY MAY
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) OVER
SOUTHWEST KS.  THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE WARM FRONT WELL INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, WHICH WOULD KEEP MY AREA IN THE WARM AIR WITH
POSSIBLE DRYLINE CONVECTION.  AT THIS TIME, WILL BASE TUESDAY ON
GFS EVOLUTION OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH HAS IT THROUGH SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

DAYS 3-7...

LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND AVN, AND THE 26/12Z
VERSION OF THE ECMWF, THE LATEST THINKING IS THERE WILL BE A FRONT
WALLOWING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/KS BORDER FROM WED INTO
THURSDAY. THEN, THERE WILL BE AN UPPER SYSTEM TO CLIP THE SOUTHERN
CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL STAY WITH 30 CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY,
THEN DROP TO 20 POPS ON THURSDAY. DO NOT THINK THERE WILL MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF MOST OF THE STORMS.
SO WITH THIS IN MIND, THE GUIDANCE OF LOWER TEMPS FOR THE THURS-SAT
PERIOD SUGGESTED BY THE MEX SEEMS ON TARGET. AS FOR SUNDAY, AM NOT
YET CONVINCED ANY CONVECTION WILL BE IN DDC CWA, BUT PUT IN A 20 POP
FOR THUNDER IN ABOUT THE SOUTHERN 2 TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 55 70 57 75 / 00 30 40 30
GCK 53 69 54 75 / 00 30 40 30
EHA 55 78 55 80 / 00 40 50 40
LBL 57 76 58 79 / 00 40 50 30
HYS 53 68 56 73 / 20 20 40 30
P28 60 71 58 73 / 30 20 40 30

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

$$

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