AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
850 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC DATA STILL INDICATING THAT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL                
DAYTIME HOURS FRI. BEST WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO W CENT IL NOT               
UNTIL AFT 12Z FRI TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUING TO                
DEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS SHOULD TEND TO INCREASE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS                 
CLOUDS INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. EAST SHOULD STILL REMAIN MOSTLY            
CLEAR FOR MOST PART. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALSO ADJUST OVERNIGHT             
LOWS. WOULD EXPECT ERN AREAS TO SEE SIMILAR IF NOT COOLER LOWS AS               
WEST GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE WILL                
ADJUST THESE DOWNWARD. ZONES TO BE UPDATED SOON WITH ABOVE CHANGES.             
FRIEDERS                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
CURRENT ANALYSES INDICATING THAT QUASISTATIONARY FRONT NEARING A                
KGLH-KCBM LINE AND MAY SAG JUST S OF HIGHWAY 82 THIS EVENING BEFORE             
RETURNING NWD LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE                 
ALONG THE FRONT AND GROW DURING THE EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE             
OVERNIGHT MCS ACTION SHOULD PUSH NWD WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND MODELS               
ARE FAIRLY UNANIMOUS ON THIS SCENARIO. LATEST RUC/MESO ETA ALSO LIFT            
PRIMARY PRECIPITABLE WATER/RELATIVE HUMIDITY/850MB THETA-E RIDGE                
AXES NWD TO NEAR TN BORDER BY 12Z. FARTHER S...A WEAK CONVERGENCE               
ZONE ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 84 MAY HELP A FEW EVENING TSRA FORM                  
BEFORE SUNSET HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTING FOR VERY              
LONG. IN CENTRAL MS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD BE SET TO INTERACT               
LATER IN THE EVENING KEEPING SOME ACTION GOING TO MIDNIGHT OR SO.               
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO TEMPORARILY              
BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON FRIDAY ONLY TO SLIDE OFF TO THE              
EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW LOW LEVEL AIRMASS TO RELOAD             
WITH CONTINUED SLY FLOW BRINGING UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE. BY                 
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG SERN ATLANTIC COAST AS SUBSTANTIAL            
500-300MB POSITIVE TILT TROF AXIS DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL US. THERE             
COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS AS THIS TROF DIGS SEWD SATURDAY NIGHT.              
INITIAL TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM MAY OFFER THE AREA A 1-2" RAINFALL           
POTENTIAL AS AVN INDICATING A SWATH OF PREFRONTAL 2.0" PRECIPITABLE             
WATER REACHING CENTRAL MS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT             
EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIDDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES                
SHOULD BE ON THE WANE FROM N TO S. THAT LEAVES MEMORIAL DAY IN                  
RATHER FINE SHAPE WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY(85-90)             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                                                         
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUILD SRN PLAINS RIDGE EWD FOR THE MIDDLE AND               
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL YIELD MORE SUMMER-PREVIEW                   
TEMPERATURES/HUMIDITIES.                                                        
24-HR QPF DISCUSSION: HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWFA...IN            
VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER NE ZONES OF MS.              
ETA HANDLES RAINFALL PROGNOSIS BEST FOR NEXT 24 HRS - AVN APPEARS A             
BIT OVERDONE WITH RF AMOUNTS OVER E MS. STILL...NGM/ETA/AVN CRANKING            
OUT PW VALUES WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES FOR CWFA. WITH HEFTY DEWPOINTS IN            
UPPER 60S AND 70S...PROXIMITY OF NEAR-STATIONARY FRONT...AND STRONG             
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER OUR               
NRN ZONES COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE MODERATE RAINFALL WITH AREAL                
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.25 INCH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS                
WILL RANGE FROM 0.01 TO 0.1 INCH MOST AREAS.  RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES            
AS FRONT PULLS NE OUT OF AREA.                                                  
PRELIM NUMBERS:                                                                 
JAN 72/91/73/93/70 21245                                                        
MEI 70/92/71/93/70 32245                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
900 PM MDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
...UPDATES PLANNED FOR ZONES AND STATE FORECAST...                              
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST          
TOWARD MONTANA THIS EVENING. SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT MOISTURE IS          
RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SURFACE OBS AND UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO           
INDICATE ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.          
ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN FAR SOUTH OF BEAVERHEAD COUNTY AND              
EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RUC         
AND NEW ETA CONFIRM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN             
PORTION OF STATE AND LIMITED IN AMOUNT. WILL UPDATE TO CUT POPS AT MANY         
LOCATIONS AND REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK.                       
MPJ                                                                             
GTF EB 045/065 041/073 045 101110                                               
CTB BB 040/062 038/071 042 100000                                               
HLN EB 048/066 044/075 045 102221                                               
BZN WB 046/062 041/075 044 105531                                               
WEY WE 038/057 033/068 036 105532                                               
DLN EB 045/066 040/073 039 104321                                               
HVR EU 042/066 039/076 045 100110                                               
LWT WB 045/064 040/075 043 103520                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1055 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                     
ZONE GROUPS WILL BE REALIGNED TO AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO FIT CURRENT                
VARIATIONS IN CLOUDS, WINDS, AND TEMPS.                                         
THERMAL CONTRAST IS INCREASING ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM W             
CENTRAL TX ACROSS S OK, AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HOLDS TEMPS IN                 
CHECK ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF W AND CENTRAL OK, WHILE                   
HEATING PROCEEDS FARTHER S. CLOUDS MAY TAKE MUCH OF AFTERNOON TO                
BREAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND W CENTRAL OK, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE                      
CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFTING              
ZONE N AND NW OF THE SURFACE FRONT. BETTER CHANCES MAY BE FARTHER SE            
CLOSER TO THE STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT, EVEN THOUGH CAP WILL BE                  
STRONGER FARTHER S. CHANCES THEN DROP OFF AGAIN S OF THE SURFACE                
FRONT, WHERE FORCING WILL BE LESS AND CAP IS MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.            
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL CATEGORIES IN AREAS                
WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE              
KEPT E AND NE ON COOL SIDE OF FRONT, AS CLOUDS PREVENT MIXING AND               
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT N-WARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. THIS IS                    
SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC/ETA.                                                    
WE ALSO WILL INCREASE POPS TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS W AND N ZONES, AND             
ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN. 12Z ETA INDICATES                
RATHER COPIOUS RAINFALL TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS NW OF SURFACE                  
FRONT. NGM ALSO IS RATHER GENEROUS WITH RAINFALL, BUT WITH A MAX                
FARTHER NE IN VICINITY OF SE KS. THIS LOOKS TOO FAR N, AS DOES THE              
NGM 12Z FRONTAL POSITION NEAR KS BORDER. NEW MOS GUIDANCE HAS                   
INCREASED POPS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NCENTRAL OK. WE WILL TREND THAT               
WAY IN THE MORNING UPDATE; AFTERNOON PACKAGE MAY GO EVEN HIGHER.                
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LONG EVENING AHEAD.                                          
UPDATED ZONES OUT BY AROUND 1115L.                                              
24                                                                              
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
850 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
THERE IS STILL SOME VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WEAK                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MS-AL AND GA ACROSS SOUTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THIS CWA AND CONTINUING ACROSS NE SC. UPPER SUPPORT                 
WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ALSO GOOD DIVG ALOFT IN NOSE OF              
UPPER JET POKING IN FROM NORTHWEST. STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AND            
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY            
UPDATE TIME. I SEE LITTLE GOING ON UPSTREAM... AND LATEST RUC SHOWS             
SHORT WAVE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVING EAST OF CWA BY LATE EVENING.             
WITH THIS IN MIND...I WILL DROP POPS FOR ALL AREAS THE REMAINDER OF             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL MOVE BACK NORTH ON                
FRIDAY AND MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ALONG IT ESPECIALLY DURING            
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                 
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC                                           
1014 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                     
DISC:  13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR THE GREAT LAKES WITH A               
CDFNT TO THE S AND SW...TO OUR NW. WK HI PRES OFF THE FL CST.                   
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF DEBRIS SPREADING ACRS THE STATE THIS                    
MORNING...BUT THINNING ALREADY OCCURING...ESP SRN PTN. TEMPS...EVEN             
WITH THE HIGH CLDS...ALREADY OFF TO A FAST START THIS MORNING. TEMPS            
IN THE MID TO UPR 70S N TO MID 80S S. TDS ARND 70 ACRS THE MIDLANDS             
AND CSRA. 00Z MODELS RUN ALNG WITH MORNING RUC SHOWING S/W TO MOV TO            
OUR N THIS MORNING ACRS NC...THEN ANOTHER S/W TO MOVE TWRD THE AREA             
LATER THIS AFT/EVNG IN BRISK WLY FLOW ALOFT. VSBY SAT SHOWS SEVERAL             
BNDRYS FM OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION ACRS THE SE. WITH TDS ARND 70            
...WARM/HOT AFT TEMPS...MODERATE INSTABILITY WL CONT WITH CHC/GOOD              
CHC FOR AFT/EVEN SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS COULD BE A LITTLE TRICK UP N WHERE            
CLD COVER HAS BEEN A BIT THICKER...BUT FOR NOW WL CONT WITH                     
PROJECTED AFT HIGHS. SOME AREAS TO THE S MAY GO JUST ABOVE 95...SO              
WL MONITOR THRU ISSUANCE TIME FOR ANY SLIGHT INCREASE THERE...MAY               
JUST GO MID 90S.                                                                
FCSTID = 77                                                                     
CAE   93  67  89  67 /  40  30  20  20                                          
AGS   94  67  90  66 /  40  30  20  20                                          
SSC   93  67  88  67 /  40  30  20  20                                          
OGB   94  67  89  67 /  40  30  20  20                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
LCV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
837 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
BIG UPR LOW TO MOVE EAST ACRS EASTERN CANADA TONITE AND ON FRI.                 
CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA TONITE AND FRI...BUT SFC FLOW              
WILL BECOME LESS CYCLONIC WITH TIME DURING THE DAY ON FRI. HI PRESS             
RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND ON FRI.                
21Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS GETTING DOWN INTO THE U40S-M50S WITH A WEST-                
SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW (STRONGEST IN THE ST LAW VLY) PERSISTING                     
OVRNITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA OVRNITE              
(BEST IN NORTHERN SECTIONS). S/W TO MOVE ACRS NORTHERN NEW ENG                  
TONITE. RUC CRANKING OUT SOME LT MEASURABLE PCPN ACRS THE NORTHERN              
TIER OVRNITE.                                                                   
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE FROM THE NW ACRS THE FA TONITE...FOLLOWED BY              
CAA ON FRI. NW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO PERSIST           
INTO FRI. PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKE WINTER THAN SPRING. ALL THAT/S                
MISSING FOR SN IS SOME COLDER AIR...BUT LET/S NOT THINK ABOUT THAT.             
88D MOSAIC SHOWS SCT SHRA ACRS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND A LARGER AREA             
OF PCPN ACRS CENTRAL NY STATE ATTM. BUFCAN SHOWS ONLY A FEW LT                  
RETURNS UPSTREAM...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF CLDS UPSTREAM. MTNS SHOULD           
STAY OVC INTO THE OVRNITE PERIOD. WESTERN AND SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA            
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR SEEING SOME BINOVC BY LATER ON FRI.                  
CHANGED CHC WORDING FOR OVRNITE TONITE IN THE GOING ZFP TO SCT AND              
ADDED A SMALL POP TO SRN VT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A FEW                
MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMP/WIND FORECAST BASED ON SFC OBS                
TRENDS. ALL OTHER CHANCES TO GOING ZFP COSMETIC.                                
WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP                 
DATA AND THE 01Z OBS.                                                           
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
305 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
MCS RACED QUICKLY ACROSS FA THIS MORNING. AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON                 
KFCX SHOWED A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SE CORNER OF THE SCOPE.              
ANOTHER THIN RIBBON OF MOISTURE WAS LOCATED ACRS OUR WESTERN SLOPES.            
LAPS LIS PLACED THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR OF MINUS 2 ACRS CHARLOTTE                 
COUNTY. ALL MODELS PLACED A WEAK VORT MAX ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER ARD            
00Z THIS AFTERNOON. NGM/AVN/RUC KEPT THE MAIN AXIS OF RAIN ACRS NC.             
WATCHING AWIPS SAT LOOPS APPPEARS THAT S/W TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE            
ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THUS...HAVE DECIDE TO INCLUDE CHC OF EVENING             
SHOWERS THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SFC OBS DEWPOINT READINGS INDICATED            
THAT DRIER AIR IS ALITTLE SLOWER DROPPING SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRES          
WILL BUILD ACROSS FA. AVN/ETA ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT 36 HRS WITH              
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO IA WHEREAS THE NGM IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN            
PREVIOUS RUN. SOME MOISTURE MAY PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS ON               
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS WARM FRONT. WESTERN             
LOCATIONS MAY ALSO BE CLIPPED BY MCS REMAINS. FOR SAT...VARY AMOUNTS            
OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH CHC OF SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD FRONT WILL          
MOVE ACRS FA ON SUNDAY. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.                                      
.RNK.                                                                           
.VA...NONE.                                                                     
.WV...NONE.                                                                     
.NC...NONE.                                                                     
KK                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
311 AM MDT FRI MAY 26 2000                                                      
KGJX 88D EXPERIENCING EQUIPMENT/COMMS PROBLEMS...CAUSING IT TO BE               
INTERMITTENTLY OFFLINE.                                                         
RUC/SFC ANALYSIS/RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE SHOW COLD FRONT WITH LINE           
OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVING EAST ACROSS WCNTRL UTAH. MINOR VORT MAX ASSCTD            
WITH THIS RESOLVED FAIRLY WELL IN PRIMARY MODELS. EXTRAPOLATION                 
REVEALS LEADING EDGE ENTERING UT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT             
15Z AND WRN CO BEFORE NOON IF IT KEEPS CURRENT SPEED OF MOTION.                 
ACTIVITY DIVIDED INTO TWO MAIN AREAS...ONE S OF SLC AND SECOND VCNTY            
OF CDC...BOTH MOVING DUE EAST. SRN FEATURE SHOWS ROTATION ASSCTD WITH           
A VORT MAX UNRESOLVED BY THE PRIMARY MODELS...OR BADLY POSITIONED               
MUCH TOO FAR SOUTH OVER AZ...AND ONLY HINTED AT IN RUC. NRN PCPN AREA           
ALSO SHOWING WEAKER ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. THROUGH ECHO                    
INTENSITY AND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE DECREASING...BELIEVE THESE AREAS            
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.            
IT SHOULD N THE ECHOES NOON...WTIH CLEARER AREA INBTWN FILLING IN.              
WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TDA /EMPHASIZING THIS MORNING AND EARLY            
AFTN/ ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. FREEZING LVL CURRENT AT 13.5K FT AND                  
PROJECTED TO LOWER TDA SO SMALL HAIL AGAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH TSTMS.            
AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THRU /BEFORE SUNSET/ LOWER ATMOS STABILIZES               
AND DRIES OUT...AS SHOWN IN TIME-HEIGHTS USING EACH MODEL. THE                  
WEEKEND STILL ON TRACK TO BE DRY WITH A WARMING TREND DUE TO RIDGING.           
THEN MRF BREAKS RIDGE DOWN AND ALLOWS WEAK TROF TO CARRY PCPN INTO              
THE AREA MON AND TUE.   CUOCO                                                   
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
939 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
SCT -SHRAS IN THE ATY AREA AND EAST SHOULD BE OUT THE CWA BY 11 PM.             
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM WAA AND FROM CONVECTION TO THE             
SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATELLITE...              
RADAR...AND SFC OBS SHOWING THE SHRAS AND TSRAS IN NEB LIFTING N AND            
E THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO C SD AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT. RUC SHOWS S/W ENERGY MOVING INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW LATER            
TONIGHT WITH WAA AND MEAN RH INCREASING. 7-50H LAPSE RATES AROUND 8             
DEG C WITH THETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT ACROSS C SD ARE EVIDENCE              
OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. THEREFORE...IT LOOKS GOOD FOR C SD             
TO SEE SOME SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO...THE SFC PRES             
GRAD TIGHTENS TONIGHT. SO...SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME BY MRNG.                
WINDS AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OUT OF THE 50S                  
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SOME CHANGES.          
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
850 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2000                                                      
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS TIMING OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  FIRST                  
CONCERN IS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.                   
AFTER LOOKING AT RUC AND MESO-ETA DETERMINED THIS WAS ASSOCIATED                
WITH 850 MB MSTR CONVENGENCE ALONG SECONDARY THETA-E GRADIENT.  THE             
FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE AT THIS LEVEL AND LESS FAVORABLE TO CONTINUE              
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS AS BACK EDGE OF            
PCPN MOVES TOWARD DIXON COUNTY.  THUS WL WORD ZONES IN FAR SRN CWA              
WITH SHRA/TSRA ENDING BY LATER THIS EVENING.                                    
ATTN THEN SHIFTS TO AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AGAIN RELIED ON 18Z ETA AND 21Z RUC.       
LLJ EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WL SURGE MOISTURE                       
NORTHWARD.  850 DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE BY 10-15C OVERNIGHT IN NEB          
AND SRN SD.  THIS QUICKLY MOVES THE THETA-E GRADIENT NORTH AS WELL.             
EXPECT THAT AS LLJ STARTS UP AND INTERSECT BNDY...CONVECTION IN WRN             
NEBRASKA WL BECOME ELEVATED WITH SRN PORTION EXPLODING WHILE NWRN               
PART DIMINISHES.  EXPECT THIS MCS WL FOLLOW THE MAX THETA-E                     
ADVECTION INTO SC SD AND THEN ALONG SD/NE BORDER TOWARD SUX.  THIS              
WL MEAN MOST OF CWA...EXCEPT TOWARD GREGORY/CHARLES MIX                         
COUNTIES...WON'T SEE CONVECTION UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                      
NORTH OF I-90 PCPN WL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED EXCEPT ALONG JAMES RIVER            
AS 850 BNDY IS LOCATED NEAR HON BY 12Z.  SO HAVE LOWERED PCPN                   
CHANCES TO SLIGHT N AND E OF LINE FROM BKX TO SIBLEY IA.  WL KEEP SCT           
TSRA INTO KFSD ALTHO KFSD LOOKS TO BE ON THE NRN END OF ANY                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.                                                 
LOWS GENERALLY ON TRACK...AND ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN NERN CWA                 
WHERE LESS PCPN IS EXPECTED.                                                    
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
SCHUMACHER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1043 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2000                                                     
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHERN ALABAMA SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA          
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS             
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF           
FRONT. RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOWING THIS FRONT RETREATING NORTHEAST SLOWLY          
DURING DAY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE (PW 1.5-1.75) ALONG WITH CAPES AROUND           
1000 SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY VICINITY OF          
FRONT. SOME WARMING ALOFT AND DRYING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH          
CHANCE SW PORTION OF CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE MINOR                  
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...CLOUDS...AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.               
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
945 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2000                                                      
MORNG SAT PICS SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH AS PERSISTENT NWLY                 
OROGRAPHIC LIFT CONTS OVR BGM CWA.  RUC FCST OF LOW LVL MSTR TO                 
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THRU 00Z AND WEAK CAA TO CONT.  WHERE THERE HAS              
BEEN SOME SUNSHINE ON PERIPHERY OF LOW CLDS HEATING HAS RESULTED IN             
SC FILLING BACK IN.  WILL GO WITH MSTLY CLDY FOR THIS AFTN AND SHAVE            
TEMPS BACK A BIT OVR MOST AREAS.  IN FAR S ARND AVP THERE IS MORE               
SUNSHINE THIS MRBG SO WILL CONT MSTLY SUNNY FCST AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD            
THERE.                                                                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
RH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny