PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST FRI APR 02 2004
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 8 - APR 12 2004
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THE 0Z GFS... GFS ENSEMBLE... ECMWF... ECMWF ENSEMBLE... AND CANA-
DIAN ENSEMBLE AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE 6 TO 10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS.  THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...WITH THE 0Z GFS RUN BEING MORE RETRO-
GRESSIVE ON THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH TEND TO POSITION THIS RIDGE NEAR 120W.
THE 0Z GFS DAILY MAPS SHOW MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST COAST RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODEL RUNS...AND WAS CON-
SIDERED SOMEWHAT SUSPECT.  A CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS SHOWS A MEAN
TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST...AND A LARGE BLOCK CENTERED NEAR SOUTH-
ERN GREENLAND.  THE CONSENSUS ALSO INDICATES AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH OVER THE BAJA CALI-
FORNIA REGION.  OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS...JUST
ABOUT ALL RUNS ANTICIPATE A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-
EASTERN COASTS OF ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 00Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS JUDGED TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND... AND ANALOGS TO THE 500-HPA BLEND.
IT IS ALSO BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
ASSORTMENT OF COMPUTER MODELS.  THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES
WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON PRECIPITATION ANA-
LOGS TO THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND AND OTHER MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND.  THE CDC CALIBRATED PRE-
CIPITATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY.
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8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - APR 16 2004
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAST THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN COAST OF NORTH AMERICA MAY RETROGRESS DURING THE WEEK 2
PERIOD. SOME OF THE GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT RETRO-
GRESSION...AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THOUGH YESTERDAYS 18Z
GFS AND TODAYS DAVA WERE A BIT SLOWER OVERALL AND SEEMED MORE
REASONABLE.
THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 50 PERCENT
OF TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... AND 50 PERCENT
OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11.  THOUGH AN INSPECTION OF THE
18Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY LOOKED GOOD...THERE WERE PROBLEMS INCORPO-
RATING IT INTO THE WEIGHTED-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHT FIELD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS JUDGED TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE TODAY... 3 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND THE VARIOUS INDIVIDUAL MODEL
FORECASTS CONTRIBUTING TO IT... AND ANALOGS TO THE BLEND. THE CDC
CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES WERE NOT AVAILABLE TODAY.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOGS TO THE
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND...AND THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS.  THE
CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION WAS NOT AVAILABLE TODAY.
FORECASTER: A. ARTUSA
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NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...
PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE
OUTLOOKS.  THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE
1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS.
THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY
APRIL 15TH.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950316 - 19880408 - 19840320 - 19950313 - 19530325
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19950315 - 19840319 - 19880408 - 19950318 - 19720314
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 12, 2004
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 16, 2004
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$