SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 PM MST FRI MAY 9 2003
.SYNOPSIS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY WILL MOVE WELL EAST
OF THE REGION FOR LESS WIND OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR A WARMING TREND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ONCE AGAIN
SOME WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
.DISCUSSION...BOTH THE WIND ADVISORY AND THE RED FLAG WARNING WORKED
OUT WELL THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN ZONES. AT THE DOUGLAS AIRPORT
THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND WAS 29 MPH WITH A GUST TO 41 MPH. AT FORT
HUACHUCA THE HIGHEST WIND RECORDED WAS 28 MPH WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH.
AT SAFFORD THE HIGHEST WIND WAS 26 MPH WITH A GUST TO 39 MPH. MIN
RH'S WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY LOCATIONS. SEVERAL OF THE
RAWS SITES ALSO REACHED RED FLAG CRITERIA AS WELL.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND EXTENDING
BACK ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EAST ACCORDING TO THE
MODELS. BY LATE SATURDAY A FLAT RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HEIGHTS WILL
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH LATEST ETA/NGM MOS
GUIDANCE REFLECTING THIS...AND IS ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. CURRENT ZONES/GRIDS SHOW TEMPS FOR SUNDAY A BIT ON THE
LOW SIDE COMPARED TO LATEST MOS NUMBERS SO WILL TWEAK GRIDS A BIT
UPWARD TO REFLECT THE WARMING TREND...IF MAV NUMBERS COME IN WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AS WELL.
MOLLERE
.TWC...NONE.
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   az
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
944 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2003
COLD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS EVENING. MAIN
AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO AROUND RABBIT EARS PASS PER
KGJX REFLECTIVITY. THE RUC ANALYSIS PLACES A VORTICITY LOBE JUST WEST
OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STILL SUPPLYING SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL.
UPPER COLD CORE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES CONTINUING. NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GIVE
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE UNCOMPAHGRE
PLATEAU WILL BE WINDING DOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GOING ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHWEST
COLORADO VALLEYS 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE EVENING UPDATE. LINDQUIST
.GJT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR UTAH ZONE 23 AND CO
       ZONE 017.
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY FOR
       CO ZONES 003-005-009-010-012.
    ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CO ZONES 004-013.
</PRE></TT></td>   co
SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2003
MOISTURE PLUME OVER SE OREGON AND SW ID MOUNTAINS IS WEAKENING WITH
COLDEST ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS OVER HARNEY COUNTY WITH A RUC ANALYZED
VORT MAX.  THE OREGON PORTION WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS THERE
MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 5500 FEET FOR 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW MAINLY IN THE STEENS MTS. BROAD UPPER TROF LINGERS
OVER THE WEST BUT THE ABUNDANT RAIN PRODUCING LOW SHIFTS AWAY
LEAVING A SHEARED VORT AXIS ACROSS N NV INTO CENTRAL OREGON.  THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS SCT-NMRS SHOWERS WITH ONLY 20-40 POPS
ELSEWHERE THRU SATURDAY.  ON SATURDAY AN UPPER TROF PIVOTS OVER
OREGON AND FAR SW ID OVERRIDING A 308K H7 WARM MOIST THETA-E RIDGE
FOR LIKELY POPS THERE SATURDAY NIGHT.  THESE FEATURES SHIFT NE ON
SUNDAY FOR HIGHER POPS ACROSS N BAKER CO AND NRN WEST CENTRAL MTS.
THE 18Z GFS IS ON TRACK WITH THESE FEATURES AS IN THE 12Z  RUN OF
THE GFS. MOIST BAND IS NOT EVIDENT IN THE ETA WHOSE HEIGHTS/H5 ARE
30-60 M HIGHER AND HAVE NOT GONE WITH DRY SOLN BUT UNCERTAINTY IS
THERE SO SUNDAY COULD TURN OUT DRY AND AROUND 5F WARMER. SW U.S.
RIDGE BULGES UP TOWARDS THE GT BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY SO HAVE
GONE DRY SOUTH AND LOW POPS NORTH...FAVORING MTS...AND WARMED UP
HIGHS.  SIMILAR PTTN FOR TUESDAY BUT A BUT MILDER AGAIN.  IN THE
WED-FRI PERIOD AREA IS UNDER SPLITTY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WOULD TREND
TOWARDS DRY BUT THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME QPF ACROSS AREEA THURSDAY.
PLAN TO GO WITH CURRENT DRY/PERSISTENCE FCST FOR THE PERIOD.
.BOI...NONE.
$$
=
</PRE></TT></td>   id
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 PM EST FRI MAY 9 2003
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN
AN HOUR OR SO AT FWA AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT SBN.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 21Z WHEN THAT
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF US. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN LOWER AGAIN
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN SATURDAY MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TONIGHT BUT THE POPS ARE
LOW SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
BML
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE AT 1015 AM...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS THIS MORNING.
DEBRIS CLOUDS STILL HANGING OVER AREA AND HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT.
THUS WARM FRONT HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF FRONT HAS HELPED TO STRENGTHEN WARM
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY APPROACHING UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AS MORE BREAKS DEVELOP IN CLOUD COVER
TODAY...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GO MORE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS SHOULD HELP FRONT MOVE NORTH. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS
INDICATING THIS AND HAVE TO THINK WITH BREAKS BEGINNING TO OCCUR
ALREADY THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF FRONT AND THIS IS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
TEMP/DEWPOINTS IN CENTRAL INDIANA. OTHER THAN FRONT...NO STRONG
TRIGGER IN FORM OF SHORT WAVE OR COOLING ALOFT. 12Z ILX SOUNDING HAD
AN IMPRESSIVE CAP AROUND 600MB AND WAS QUITE DRY. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS WITH
SEVERE WORDING THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL
HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE NEAR AND SOUTH OF FRONT.
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS THEY WILL QUICKLY JUMP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS NEXT WAVE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...CREATING ANOTHER BOUT OF
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. ZONE/GRID UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LASHLEY
</PRE></TT></td>   in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1015 AM EST FRI MAY 9 2003
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS COOLED AND STABILIZED LOWER LEVELS THIS MORNING.
DEBRIS CLOUDS STILL HANGING OVER AREA AND HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MIX OUT.
THUS WARM FRONT HAS REMAINED SOUTH OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF FRONT HAS HELPED TO STRENGTHEN WARM
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY APPROACHING UPPER 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AS MORE BREAKS DEVELOP IN CLOUD COVER
TODAY...MIXING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO GO MORE SOUTHWEST AND
THIS SHOULD HELP FRONT MOVE NORTH. LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS
INDICATING THIS AND HAVE TO THINK WITH BREAKS BEGINNING TO OCCUR
ALREADY THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF FRONT AND THIS IS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN
TEMP/DEWPOINTS IN CENTRAL INDIANA. OTHER THAN FRONT...NO STRONG
TRIGGER IN FORM OF SHORT WAVE OR COOLING ALOFT. 12Z ILX SOUNDING HAD
AN IMPRESSIVE CAP AROUND 600MB AND WAS QUITE DRY. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WILL CONTINUE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST OF BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AND WILL KEEP CHC POPS WITH
SEVERE WORDING THIS AFTERNOON SINCE ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL
HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE NEAR AND SOUTH OF FRONT.
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A TAD ACROSS THE NORTH AND ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AS THEY WILL QUICKLY JUMP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS NEXT WAVE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS REGION TONIGHT...CREATING ANOTHER BOUT OF
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. ZONE/GRID UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
.IWX...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LASHLEY
</PRE></TT></td>   in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
PRIND TSTMS WL CONT TO DVLP THRU 03Z.  MODIFIED RUC SNDGS IN SE KS
YIELD ABT 2500 CAPE/80 CIN.  ERY ON, MAIN THREAT SHUD BE MAINLY WIND
AND MARGINAL HAIL.  HOWEVER AS LLVL WNDS BACK/INCR THRU SUNSET,
BELIEVE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL/TORNADOES WL INCR.  CURRENT MEAN
STORM MOTION IS ABT 230/50KTS. RIGHT MOVERS SHUD TRACK CLOSER TO
270/35KT.  BELIEVE DEEPER MSTR CURRENTLY OVR SE KS WL ADVECT NW AS
LLVL WNDS INCR/BACK, SPREADING THREAT OF TSTMS/SVR WX NW WITH
RETREATING DRYLN.
HOWERTON
----------------------------------------------------------------
334 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
TONIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY:
CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.  APPEARS MAIN FOCUS WILL AGAIN BE OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH HAS CREPT A BIT NWRD SINCE
12Z.  WILL KEEP SEVERE WORDING IN SERN ZONES WITH INITIATION AFTER
23Z OR SO.
SATURDAY:
GOOD WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST.  SOME
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY...BUT EXPECT MAINLY
MORE SHOWERY TYPE WEST WITH SOME TRW FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:
SURFACE HIGH TO SLIDE SWD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
MONDAY-FRIDAY:
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL
RETAIN MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO THE SOUTH AND SFC FRONT DRAGS ACROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW AS FCST AREA REMAINS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
FCSTID =   16
ICT   61  74  48  70 /  40  30  10   5
HUT   57  71  46  68 /  30  30  10   5
EWK   61  74  47  69 /  40  30  10   5
EQA   64  76  48  68 /  50  30  10   5
WLD   65  79  51  73 /  40  30  10   5
RSL   52  64  44  65 /  20  20  10   5
GBD   53  64  45  64 /  20  20  10   5
SLN   56  68  46  68 /  30  30  10   5
MPR   60  73  47  69 /  40  30  10   5
CFV   68  82  52  73 /  60  30  10   5
CNU   67  81  51  68 /  60  30  10   5
K88   67  81  50  67 /  60  30  10   5
.ICT...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1007 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
MAIN CONCERN HERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AND INCLUDING POSSIBLE SEVERE.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT /BASED ON THERMAL
CONSIDERATIONS/ EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR ORD TO
GSH/FWA/AOH LINE. THIS PLACES ENTIRE CWA ON COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT.
00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS...AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME...ZERO
SFC BASED CAPE. FRONTAL INVERSION IS FAIRLY DEEP AT 5K FEET. LIFTING
PARCEL FROM MAX THETA-E AROUND 840MB YIELDS LITTLE CAPE AND AN LI OF
0.65.
00Z RUC SHOWS TSRA OVER INDIANA DEVELOPING IN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS RIDGE WILL EXTEND
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE HERE AT DTX...HIGHER ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIKELY
SOUTH...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN SW OVERNIGHT
/30-35 KNOTS INDICATED ON ILX VWP 3-5K FEET/...GREATER INSTABILITY
OVER INDIANA WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...WITH ANY STORMS THAT
MAKE IT INTO SE LOWER BECOMING ELEVATED. /WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE
EVER SO SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT...BUT CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS./
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER INDIANA AND INTO OH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SKIRT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...ANY MCS-TYPE
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL IL...WOULD LOOK TO TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
EAST DUE EAST /PER 300-850MB THICKNESS-WIND CONSIDERATIONS/. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS BRING TSRA CLOSE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM CROSSING
WARM FRONT AND PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WX. GIVEN DEPTH OF
FRONTAL INVERSION WOULD EXPECT THAT MOST PROBABLE SEVERE WX TO BE
HAIL. HWO WILL CALL FOR JUST AN ISOLATED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I 94.
OKEEFE
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AN UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR MINNEAPOLIS WITH AN OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDING INTO CHICAGO THEN BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHICAGO
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OHIO. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 70S. SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A CAPPING INVERSION HAS THUS FAR
PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION
IS HOWEVER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN INDIANA ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER 850-700MB MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
OVER UTAH WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A SIGNIFICANT SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE.
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE SHOW THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER UTAH LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...THEN LIFTING INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...SENDING A
STRONG SURFACE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY
MORNING. THE ONLY MAJOR DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY
12Z...WHILE THE ETA TAKES IT THROUGH DURING THE MORNING. THE UKMET
AND CANADIAN LIE IN BETWEEN THE TWO AS FAR AS TIMING. GIVEN THE
DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND ITS SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...PREFER THE
FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER ETA SOLUTION.
FOR TONIGHT...I WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF M-59 AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTH
THIS EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. WITH NO FORCING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ONLY MODEST 850MB THETA E RIDGING PASSING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...I WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY. CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A 50
KT LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...FORCED BY NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...I WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS THE 850MB THETA E
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...REMNANTS OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY WILL RELY HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT
THIS POINT...EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUD DEBRIS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
STATE. MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS FOR 77/66 YIELDS 2K J/KG CAPE. THIS
ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30 M/S MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. COPIOUS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO APPROACH
1.8 INCHES. SO A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE.
POTENT MID LEVEL DRY SLOT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL
ADD TO NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DOWNDRAFTS. SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE OVER THE AREA. HIGH HELICITY VALUES
ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. SO
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS VERY LIKELY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
NEAR 5K FEET MAY ALLOW 40-45 KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THUS A HIGH WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. I WILL REMOVE POPS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT.
DEEP MOISTURE WRAPS BACK AROUND THE OCCLUDED SURFACE SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION THROUGH
MONDAY. THUS I WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. I WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND ALL THE CLOUD
COVER...HIGHS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST BY MID
WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING A HIGH AMPLITUDE SPIT FLOW
REGIME OVER THE REGION...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES AND A TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GFS
IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THESE FEATURES THAN THE EUROPEAN OR
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AS WELL. THUS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THICKNESSES
INCREASE.
.DTX...NONE.
$$
CONSIDINE
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
925 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW MEAN UPR TROF OVR THE WRN
CONUS WITH RDG OVR THE SE TO SW OF CUTOFF LO OVR THE CNDN MARITIMES.
FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV/H5 VORT LOBE/SFC LO WHICH HAS MOVD INTO MN HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS (SFC LO PRES GOING
FM 999MB AT 21Z TO 1003MB AT 00Z) AS SYS MOVG NE OUT OF MEAN TROF
AND INTO HUDSON BAY HI PRES AND DRIER ELY LLVL FLOW ON ITS SRN FLANK
OVR THE NRN GRT LKS THAT LIES W OF CUTOFF LO OVR THE CNDN MARITIMES.
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT XTNDS ESE FM SFC LO IN NCNTRL MN INTO NCNTRL
WI...BUT REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA BAND WHICH IMPACTED CWA THIS
MRNG/AFTN HAS IS NOW OVR LK SUP MORE COINCIDENT WITH H85 WARM FNT.
JUST ISOLD -SHRA LINGER OVR CWA WITH OVC SKIES IN ELY FLOW/INCRSGLY
SHALLOW COLD WEDGE N OF SFC WARM FNT. COMBINATION OF DNVA BEHIND H5
VORT LOBE/DVLPMNT OF SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8 PER 00Z GRB/MPX SDNGS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY ADVCTN NOTED ON 00Z RAOBS ABV H8 HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO COLLAPSE OF PCPN OVR CWA DESPITE LINGERING LLVL MSTR
DEPICTED BY SFC OBS AS WELL AS LLVLS OF GRB AND MPX SDNGS. WEAK COLD
FNT TO S OF MN SFC LO PRES HAS MOVD E OF MPX...AND DRIER WLY FLOW
TENDING TO OCCLUDE WARM FNT...WHICH IS HAVING A HARDER AND HARDER
TIME MOVG NE INTO DRIER/RAIN COOLED ELY FLOW OVR CWA. DESPITE DRYING
BEHIND FNT...CONSIDERABLE LO CLD REMAINS. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED MOVG
NE INTO SW MN IN WSWLY FLOW E OF MEAN WRN TROF...BUT OVERWHELMING
MID LVL DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED ANY PCPN WITH JUST WEAK LLVL CNVGC ALG
SFC COLD FNT.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOVLE ARND PCPN CHCS ASSOCIATED WITH
APRCHG WARM FNT AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
18Z ETA/21Z RUC SHOW MN SHRTWV/SFC LO DRIFTING SLOWLY N OVRNGT AND
TENDING TO SLOWLY FILL. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV NOW MOVG INTO SW MN PROGGED
TO MOVE TOWARD CWA OVRNGT...MODELS SHOW SHRTWV TENDING TO SHEAR OUT
SO THAT DRY ADVCTN OVERWHELMS ANY MOISTENING DUE TO ASSOCIATED
QVECTOR CNVGC/UVV WITH RESULT THAT MODEL FCST SDNGS SHOW LWRG/
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVRN. MODELS ALSO HINT THAT WEAKENING
OCCLUDED FNT WL DRIFT SLOWLY NE INTO CWA AND UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS.
THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS MODEL FCSTS OF LTL OR NO QPF DURG OVRNGT
PD...SO WL KEEP ZNS PCPN FREE ONCE LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA END. AS FOR
FOG CHCS...SUSPECT SC CIGS WL LINGER MOST OF NGT AND RESTRICT SFC
COOLING/DIURNAL TEMP FALL FM CURRENT READINGS SO THAT FOG WL NOT BCM
A SGNFT PROBLEM. LLVL DRY ADVCTN DEPICTED IN H100-85 LYR BEHIND
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FNT WL ALSO HINDER FOG CHCS. BUT COMBINATION OF
PARTIAL CLRG ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRY ADVCTN AND WEAKENING PRES
GRADIENT/SFC WND ARND FILLING LO TO THE W WITH RA MOISTENED AIR
STILL WARRANT MENTION OF PTCHY FOG DVLPMNT.
OVERALL...GOING FCST HAS SCENARIO WELL IN HAND...SO NO CHGS
NECESSARY ATTM.
KC
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS...
SAT...TEMP FCST FOR SAT COULD BE TRICKY. WITH OCCLUDED FRONT
LINGERING TO SOUTH WE MAY STAY UNDER MORE CLDS ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH MODELS INDICATING WK RDGG BY AFT AHD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV APPROACHING FM SOUTH...WILL GO ALONG WITH ETA
FCST SNDGS AND ANTICIPATE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOME AFT SUN. WK
SFC GRAD WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO DVLP KEEPING SHORELINES
COOLER...WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL REACH 65 TO 70 AS 850 MB TEMPS OF
6C-10C MIX TO SFC.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...MODELS LOOK TO BE DELAYING SYSTEM AS UPR TROF
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME MDL
DIFFERENCES AVN A BIT QUICKER AND NOT AS DEEP WITH SYSTEM THAN
ETA/UKMET...ALL MODELS SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW BRINGING IT UP
THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NIGHT TO NR STRAITS BY SUN MORNING. GIVEN
DELAYED ARRIVAL OF PCPN PER MODELS...HAVE TAKEN OUT SHRA/TSRA FOR SW
ZONES ERY SAT EVNG AND BACK UP TIMING OF SHRA TO MAINLY LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...WITH STRONG UPR LVL DIV IN
LFQ OF INCOMING 120 KT 3H JET MAX AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CONV...STILL
WARRNAT CATEGORICAL POPS. BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD STAY CLOSEST TO
TRACK OF SFC LOW...WHICH MODEL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SEEM TO
INDICATE. MODELS SHOW 8H THETA-E RDG INTO ERN HALF ZONES WHERE
SHOWALTER INDICES ALSO ARE NR 0C. KEPT TSRA MENTION EAST EARLY
SUN...WHERE POCKET OF INSTABILITY FCST TO LINGER EARLY.
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...DEEP SFC LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY AS STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH GUSTY NW
WINDS. GIVEN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND DEEP Q-VECT CONV LINGERING INTO
SUN EVNG KEPT IN CAT POPS ALTHOUGH EXPECT PCPN TO BCM SCT LATE SUN
NIGHT AS BETTER DYNAMICS PULL EAST. GFS STILL SHOWS 1000-850
THICKNESSES FALLING TO AROUND 1305M ...AND 0C HEIGHT FALLING BLO 1K
FT AGL (PER 12Z GFS BUFR SNDGS)...WHICH COULD BRING SOME -SHSN MIX
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST/CNTRL UPR MI SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING...AS PER GOING FCST.
.EXTENDED(TUE-FRI)...
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE GRADUAL BREAK IN BLOCKING
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEKK. WILL KEEP IN CHC OF SHOWERS FOR
ERN COUNTIES TUE MORNING WITH LINGERING CLOSED LOW OVR THE ERN
LAKES. MODELS THEN SHOW UPR RDG GRADUALLY BLDG IN FROM WEST BY
MIDWEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED-FRI AND A MODEST WARMING TREND
BY END OF WEEK AS INLAND TEMPS SHOULD REACH AGAIN INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
VOSS
.MQT...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
853 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
...LOOKS LIKE LITTLE REAL THREAT FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT...
THE REAL QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CONVECTION WE
HAVE IN OUR CURRENT FORECAST?  SINCE THE SOUNDING AROUND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...SFC OBS...SATELLITE IMAGES AND MODEL FORECAST ALL
AGREE THAT VERY DRY AIR WILL RULE THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN 1/2 OF
LOWER MICHIGAN (850 MB TO ABOVE 300 MB)...SEEMS THE RISK OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL.
CURRENTLY(10/00Z) THERE IS AN OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING EASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH BEND TO NORTH OF DAYTON OHIO
WITH A QUASI-COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR SOUTH BEND TO
NEAR IRK MO. THERE IS A WAVE ON THE FRONT BTW IRK/STL WHICH HAS AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ON IT.  THAT WAVE IS AN AREA OF MUCH HIGHER
850 MB DEW POINTS AND THAT DOES HEAD TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD
MORNING. ACTUALLY THE LATEST RUC BRINGS IT IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL JET (35 TO 45 KNOTS
NEAR STL BY 09Z) IS MORE AIMED AT IND THAN ANY PLACE IN MICHIGAN.
ALSO THE 850 LI INDEX RISES ABOVE 0C OVER MOST OF OUR CWA BY 03Z AS
THE REMAINS OF THAT OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
AFTER 06Z WITH THAT NEXT WAVE ON THE FRONT HEADING NORTHEAST... THE
0 TO -2C 850 MB LI DOES NOSE INTO THE INTERSTATE 94 AREA.  SO... I
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA.  I WILL
ALSO HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT IN THE ROW OF
COUNTIES NEAR INTERSTATE 94.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL.
ZONES BY 915 PM.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1155 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
FOCUS IS COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TS ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES.
OCCLUDED SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVR CENTRAL MN WITH WARM
FRONT JOGGING SE INTO NRN IL. AS TRUE WARM SECTOR IS WELL SOUTH OF
UPR MI...MAIN CONCERNS DEALING WITH SHRA AND ELEVATED TS. CURRENT
RADAR/LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK SHOWS BANDS OF SHRA WITH FEW TS
HAVE ROTATED ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING...WITH FAR ERN CWA YET TO GET
IN ON ANY SHRA. JUST SOME SCT -SHRA HAVE MADE IT THROUGH CNTRL
CWA...BUT OVR WRN TIER ITS A DIFFERENT STORY AS CLUSTER OF SHRA/TS
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE AREAS DUE TO CONVERGING H85 SPEED MAXES AND
LFQ OF UPR JET ROTATING ACROSS UPR GREAT LAKES. LAW ENFORCEMENT EVEN
REPORTED SOME PEA SIZED HAIL IN GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS MORNING. GRB 88D
SHOWING SCT SHRA/TS EDGING NE OVR NC WI DUE TO INCREASING TEMP
ADVECTION AT H85 AND BAND OF DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E FM H8-H7.
PRIMARY UPR DIVERGENCE FM LFQ OF UPR JET DOES SHIFT ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTN SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHRA TO REMAIN SCT OVR ALL
BUT WRN TIER THROUGH THE EVENING (BETTER H85 CONVERGENCE HANGS ON
THROUGH BALANCE OF DAY). AS FOR TS CHANCES THINK ANYWHERE ALONG WI
BORDER WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THE AFTN/EVENING AS RUC/ETA
SHOWING BETTER DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AND ELEVATED CAPE (LIFTING FM
750MB) SKIRTING THE WI BORDER. CLUSTERS OF TS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
RIDE NE (DUE TO THETA-E ADVECTION) BUT THEN FADE AS BEST MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY PROGRESSES MORE E THAN N. BELIEVE PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD
BE BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS...EXTENSIVE LIGHTNING...AND HAIL UP TO A HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER. HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE UPDATED HWO. ALL OTHER
ELEMENTS OF FORECAST ARE FAIRLY STEADY WITH TEMPS AROUND THE 50F
MARK...AND E WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOWARD FAR WRN UPR
MI (RESIDING CLOSER TO SFC LOW).
JLA
EARLIER DISCUSSION FOR LATER PERIODS...
LATER TONIGHT INTO SAT...LULL EXPECTED BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
WITH DNVA AND QDIV IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AS LOW LVL
MOISTURE PERSISTS AND PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SRLY WINDS AND H8 TEMPS FROM 5C-8C SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
CLIMB INTO THE 60S...EVEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. COOLER AIR WILL
REMAIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ENE WITH LAKE BREEZES PREVAIL.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE MDL DIFFERENCES EMERGE WITH PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF SFC AND UPR LVL FEATURES...THERE IS AGREEMENT
THAT POTENT MID/UPR LVL LOW/SHRTWV AND STRONG SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WRN LAKES. PREFER UKMET/ETA/GFS/CANADIAN CONSENSUS WITH SFC LO
WHICH WOULD BRING SFC LO TO NE WI OR SE UPR MI BY 12Z. STRENGTH OF
DYNAMICS...WITH STRONG UPR LVL DIV AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CONV...JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL POPS. WHILE BEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED
CLOSEST TO SFC LOW...TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN 00Z ETA/GFS FCST OF
SHOWALTER INDICES AOB 0C. KEPT TSRA MENTION EAST EARLY SUN...WHERE
POCKET OF INSTABILITY FCST TO LINGER.
SUN INTO MON...AS DEEP SFC LOW PULLS AWAY...STRONG CAA WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN AVBL FOR WRAP-AROUND PCPN AND CONTINUED
LIKELY POPS. GFS TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD COLDER AIR MOVING INTO UPR MI
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS AROUND 1305M
...AND 0C HEIGHT BLO 1K FT AGL (PER 00Z GFS BUFR SNDGS)..SUGGESTING
-SHSN POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF WEST/CNTRL UPR MI...AS
IN GOING FCST.
JLB
.MQT...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1108 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2003
STACKED/OCCLUDING SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS MN THIS MORNING...WITH
WV IMAGERY/UPPER AIR OBS SHOWING A STRONG DRY PUNCH INTO LOWER MI.
12Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN...OCCLUDED/COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHERN MO...AND A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN/SOUTHERN OH.  12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO DRY
BELOW 600MB WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 10C.
AREA RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS MCS REMNANTS ZIPPING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
EAST...ALREADY OUT OF SOUTHEAST LOWER AND INTO EASTERN OH/WESTERN
PA.  SO WITHOUT MUCH PRECIP TO ADVECT NORTH COMBINED WITH DRY LOW
LAYERS...NORTHERN EDGE OF MCS REMNANT PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH FALLEN
APART WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.  QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WILL WE SEE ANYTHING
REDEVELOP...OBSERVED APX SOUNDING SUGGESTS NOT...SO WE'RE GOING TO
NEED SOME HELP IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.
FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ON LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETA-E AXIS POKING UP INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER/SOUTHEAST WI.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TODAY INTO CENTRAL LOWER.  QG
FORCING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA...WITH SURFACE OB TRENDS SUPPORTING
RUC IDEA OF DEVELOPING A CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY A TVC-OSC
LINE.  THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL DRYING/CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES.  DESPITE ALL OF
THIS...WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GENERATING A WHOLE LOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXCEPT PERHAPS LOCALLY.  SO PLAN IS TO BACK POPS DOWN TO
LOW CHANCE...AND CONFINE THEM ALONG-SOUTH OF M-32 CLOSEST TO
ADVANCING LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOST PREVALENT
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS...WITH MORE IN AND OUT SUNSHINE
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH
30-35KT WINDS MIXING DOWN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH INCREASES...
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATED GRIDS AROUND 1530Z...WITH TEXT TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
.APX...NONE.
$$
JPB
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
835 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
SOME GENTLE TWEAKING AND MASSAGING OF THE GRIDS THIS EVENING...BUT
GOING FCST HOLDING JUST FINE. NEW GRIDS AND TEXT SHOULD BE OUT BY
02Z. 18Z GFS/ETA AND 21Z RUC SHOWING NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FIRST COUPLE
PDS OF FCST. UPR LOW SPINNING AWAY IN NRN MN...WITH SLOWLY
BREAKING SC DECK PER LOW LIGHT VIS PIX AND CELLULAR NATURE OF CLDS.
WL CONT WITH P/C MENTION IN SRN 1/2 OF CWA TONIGHT. LAST STRONG S/W
NOW LIFTING OUT INTO ROCKIES AND NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWING UP IN
SAT PIX. LOW/MID LVL CAA AND DIV-Q REMAINS OVR CWA ALL NIGHT...BUT
STRONG THETA-E ADV AND CONV-Q ALREADY ZIPPING INTO SRN NEB BY
MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD ALREADY BE INCREASING OVR SWRN CWA BY
15Z...AS BLOWOFF FROM EXPECTED TSRA DOWN SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST.
RAPID DEEPENING OF SFC LOW (17MBS IN 24HRS ON 18Z ETA) AS UPR
SYSTEMS PHASE OVR WI/MN. LEFT EXIT JET DIVERGENCE...RAPIDLY
INCREASING H7-H6 FWF...AND SUBTLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE ALL POINT TO
ANOTHER NICE STEADY RAIN EVENT FROM KAEL TO KEAU. STREAMS ARE FULL
IN WRN WI...SO HYDRO WL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW LONG WAA
PRECIP AND THEN DEFORMATION AXIS LINGER SAT NIGHT OVR ERN MN/WRN WI.
COULD BE ANOTHER 1" OF RAIN HERE...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAVIER ACTION WL BE JUST EAST OF CWA. WINDS WL BLOW ON SUN MAKING
FOR A RATHER UNPLEASANT DAY FOR MOMS.
.MSP...NONE
$$
BINAU
</PRE></TT></td>   mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.  COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM AROUND QUINCY ILLINOIS TO JUST
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI.  CU FIELD SOUTH OF COLD FRONT
INDICATING GOOD INSTABILITY...BUT LACK OF BIG TSRA OVER MO ATTM
PROBABLY A RESULT OF WEAK CAP AS SHOWN BY ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS.  RUC
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT WE ARE UNCAPPED...BUT
WEAK/NON-EXISTENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG OUR STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SHOULDN'T
LAST...AND WE ARE EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE WARM MOIST AIR ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
HPC HAS US OUTLOOKED IN THEIR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT...AND MODEL
QPFS ARE IMPRESSIVE TO SAY THE LEAST WITH THE GFS PRINTING OUT 4+
INCHES OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.  FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE LOW WITH MOST AREAS HOVERING AROUND THE 1 INCH
IN 1 HOUR MARK.  HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH NOON TOMORROW TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL HIGH WATER PROBLEM.
ADD TO THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME 6000+ J/KG OF CAPE EARLY THIS EVENING...QUICKLY FALLING
OFF TO A LESS SCARY BUT STILL RESPECTABLE LEVEL OF 3500-4000 J/KG
BY MIDNIGHT.  THE RUC IS SHOWING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 M/S OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WHICH IS WELL INTO SUPERCELL RANGE.  WITH THAT IN MIND...AND A
NICE BOUNDARY TO SUCK VORTICITY OFF OF...SPC'S MODERATE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD.
THE FUN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS
MOVING.  BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE FROPA.  MESOETA SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME 2000 TO 4000
CAPES DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU'RE STANDING AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS AOA
25 M/S FOR SUPERCELLS.  AGAIN...MODERATE RISK FOR SATURDAY 'TILL THE
FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE WEATHER FINALLY CALMS DOWN ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.  A COOL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND HANGS IN INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS.  THE NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA
STARTS DEEPENING AT 500 MB OVER THE DAKOTAS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME AND BEGINS DRAWING MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  KEPT CHANCE TSRA IN FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WENT DRY FOR FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE AREA BY THEN.  FOLLOWED
ENSEMBLE MOS/HPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY FOR TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD.
.STL...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OWENSVILLE MO TO
NASHVILLE IL.
CARNEY
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
805 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2003
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NE ND THIS EVENING
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW OVER UTAH. MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NORTH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE INTO ERN WY. COMPARING 18Z ETA TO 00Z UNR
SOUNDING SHOWS ETA OVERESTIMATED THE INSTABILITY OVER OUR CWA AGAIN
TODAY...SUPPPORTED BY LACK OF LIGHTNING IN OR NEAR OUR CWA. 01Z RUC
SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL.
SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER NW MN WITH TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NW
SD. KUDX 88D INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DIURNAL HEATING DIMINISHES AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE DECREASES DUE TO JET STREAK TO OUR SOUTHEAST MOVING OFF
INTO SE MN. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIP INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CURVED JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES AGAIN AND
500MB VORT MAX ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH INTERACTS WITH VORT MAX
ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND UPPER LOW OVER NE ND. 850MB TEMPS AROUND
+2C AND 700MB AROUND -7C BY 12Z STILL POINT TO A CHANCE OF
SNOWFLAKES OVER THE BLKHLS TOWARD MORNING.
.UNR...NONE.
$$
GR
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 PM CDT FRI MAY  9 2003
.DAY ONE...
DRY LINE HAS PUSHED NORTH AND FAIRLY HARD UP AGAINST CAPROCK AT THIS
TIME...MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE
TO CURRENT RUC MODEL. SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WITH JET ON ORDER OF 100 KTS WILL BE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY NEXT FEW
HOURS BRUSHING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TORNADO WATCH 320 WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING. WE REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT
MOISTURE INCREASE AND WILL THUS KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER ALL COUNTIES OFF THE CAPROCK. EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT AS VIGOROUS LOW HEADS THROUGH
CENTRAL ROCKIES... SUSPECT THE DRY LINE WILL NOT BE AS AGGRESSIVE TO
THE EAST AS THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY ETA. THEREFORE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
A BIT STRONGER FLOW SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY
COMPONENT...WILL DRY OUT LOW LEVELS COMPLETELY. ENOUGH GRADIENT TO
REMAIN CONCERNED ABOUT WIND SPEEDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES AND WILL
RETAIN FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WIND SPEEDS AT THIS POINT LOOK STRONGEST
LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SHOULD DIE OFF SLOWLY REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. EXPECT SPEEDS ATO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND MAY ALSO
NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A BIG BLOWING DUST EVENT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
COLD FRONT FOLLOWING SATURDAY SHORTWAVE SHOULD DROP THROUGH AREA
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...CLOSER TO ETA TIMING. DRY AND CONFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AS RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE COOL AND QUIET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND PULL MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
AREA. GFS STILL INCREASES DEEP MOISTURE IN H850-500 MB LAYER
NORTHWARD THROUGH TRANS PECOS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SEEMS LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. MID LEVEL OVERRUNNING THE COOL
SURFACE RIDGE COULD GIN UP A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAY ALSO CREATE
TOO STRONG OF A CAP. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY.
GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE PASSING JUST NORTH ON TUESDAY
LEADING TO LEE SIDE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING WARM
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTY EMBEDDED INTO AREA BY
THEN AND ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PROBLEMS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH
THE GFS MUCH SLOWER MOVING THE NEXT PACIFIC CUTOFF LOW ON SHORE AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SOLUTION WOULD MAINTAIN RIDGE OVER OR
JUST WEST OF AREA AND ALLOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TO DIG SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ON OR AROUND
THURSDAY. BUT PREFERENCE IS FOR THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF
WHICH MOVES LOW ABOUT A DAY AHEAD OF THE GFS INTO OUR AREA AROUND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND NEVER ALLOWS ABOVE MENTIONED PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TO FORM. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW...THEN DRY IT OUT WITH INCREASING
WINDS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALSO KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER THAN GFS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. LOTS COULD CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WITH HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR A WHILE...STAY
TUNED.  MCQUEEN/05
FCSTID = 05
FRIONA      53 82 44 76 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       56 83 46 75 / 00 00 00 00
LUBBOCK     56 86 49 77 / 00 00 00 00
BROWNFIELD  57 87 51 79 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   58 86 50 72 / 20 00 00 00
ASPERMONT   61 92 54 74 / 20 00 00 00
.LUB...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM TXZ021>037-039>042.
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY.
       TORNADO WATCH 320 TILL 900 PM TXZ038-044.
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   tx
SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
142 PM CDT FRI MAY  9 2003
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK AND OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS IN EASTERN
COUNTIES HAVE BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RUC MODEL
SHOWS THE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO MOVE NW TO NEAR THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
LIPE
.LUB...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR TXZ021>037-039>042.
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY.
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   tx
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1101 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING AS WARM AIR LIFTED OVER
DRYLINE...MOST ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF OUR AREA WHERE SUNNIER
SKIES WILL HELP CONTINUE T-STORM DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRYLINE JUST EAST OF FORT STOCKTON...TO NEAR
BIG SPRING OR JUST WEST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.  DRYLINE SHOULD
MOVE SLIGHT WEST IN RESPONSE TO LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST...SO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS OVER AREA...WILL REDUCE HI TEMPS A BIT..SO WILL TWEAK TEMPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
......................
430 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
.CURRENT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT DRYLINE
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM RANKIN AND SAN ANGELO...TO ABILENE AND
THROCKMORTON. DRYLINE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SO FAR TONIGHT...
PRIMARILY DUE TO VEERING WIND PROFILES IN WAKE OF POTENT UPPER LOW
NOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. BUT WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL NEVADA DIGGING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS...EXPECT THE
FLOW TO BACK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE
DRYLINE INTO MY WESTERN COUNTIES (SEE ISC GRIDS FOR DETAILS).
.TODAY-TONIGHT...DRYLINE WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST AGAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RUC40 AND MESOETA ADVERTISING 3000 J/KG CAPES EAST
OF THE DRYLINE THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. CIN VALUES ALSO DROP TO LESS
THAN 20 J/KG...BUT DATA DECEIVING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK AWFUL
WARM SOUTH HALF TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDER
POTENTIAL...IF NOT SQUASH IT ALL TOGETHER. CAP NOT AS STRONG OVER
THE BIG COUNTRY...SO THUNDER POTENTIAL GREATER. LOW LEVEL JET COULD
ACT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK
OF DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW TO REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF AREA.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE FAR EAST SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS THEN BRING IN DRIER
AIR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE SINCE MOISTURE STARVED.
COMFORTABLE SLEEPING WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ALLOWS
READINGS TO DIP INTO THE 50S.
.SUNDAY-MONDAY...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY SUNDAY. IT THEN BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH (WARM FRONT)...
PERHAPS REACHING A SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE BY 00Z TUESDAY.
STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THROW COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE OVER SAID
BOUNDARY...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSES
THE FORECAST AREA IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SHOULD
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR THIS RAIN STARVED REGION.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MEANDERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROMISES TO BRING MORE RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD DRY
THINGS OUT BY THURSDAY.
CCF...
ABI 096/070/088/053  2200
SJT 098/069/092/055  1100
JCT 096/074/088/060  1100
.SJT...NONE.
$$
17
</PRE></TT></td>   tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2003
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES/WINDS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DATA ANALYSIS SHOWING TWO SURFACE LOWS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT
RANGE.  THE FIRST IS NORTH OF KMSP AND THE SECOND IS NEARING THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE.  IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA...MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND SOME MIXING HAVE CAUSED WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY.  THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY...AS GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX
OVERNIGHT AS THE NORTHERN SURFACE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH.  CLOUDS
HAVE DECREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS DEPICTED BY THE RUC/ETC MOISTURE FORECASTS.
MODELS BEHAVING RATHER INTERESTING THIS PERIOD.  AS THE SOUTHERN LOW
MOVES EAST TONIGHT...CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG ITS WARM FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CAUSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF TO BE PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  BOTH THE ETA/GFS AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY BEGIN ON SATURDAY.  AS THE SOUTHERN
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...A STRONG AREA OF FORCING /MOST NOTABLE
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/ MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS BEGINS ABOUT MID-MORNING SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IOWA
ZONES...OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  THE
GFS SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FORCING...WHILE THE
ETA DOES NOT.  CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE FAVORS THE GFS HERE...AND
THIS SOLUTION WILL CONTINUED TO BE FAVORED.
TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY.  850 MB TEMPERATURES
CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND WITH THE CLOUDS AND INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING MAX HEATING...JUST THIS THE HIGHS WILL BE MORE
REFLECTIVE OF THE GFS MOS VERSUS THE OTHERS.
KRC
.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN CONCERN DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 ARE WINDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY.
BOTH ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO EJECT UPPER LEVEL/SFC LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH ETA SLOWER OF THE TWO. WILL
LEAN MORE TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION...AS ETA HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION IN MOVING SFC LOW QUICKER INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
NOT LOOKING AT ISSUING ANY TYPE OF WATCH OR ADVISORY ASSOCIATED WITH
POSSIBLE WIND EVENT.  THIS IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS SHIFT
STRONGEST GRADIENT INTO EASTERN HALF OF WISCONSIN...THOUGH WILL
HIGHLIGHT WINDY WORDING IN FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF COUNTY WARNING AREA...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. REGION WILL HAVE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS AND LIFT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
COUNTY WARNING AREA.
FOR SUNDAY...THE ETA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG WIND
EVENT...WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED MOST OF THE FAVORABLE FIELDS TO
THE EAST.  SINCE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT ISSUE HEADLINES AS WAS STATED ABOVE.  THE ETA SHOWS STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES / 7C/KM / AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.  EVEN THROUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS...IT
STILL PRODUCES A MIXED LAYER WIND OF 40+ KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST IN THE BUFKIT DATA.  AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AND MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION ON MONDAY...THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS COUNTY WARNING AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY...AS
SYSTEM LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
00Z FRIDAY GFS DEVELOPS SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND DROPS
IT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS QUITE
DIFFERENT FROM THE 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS.
THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BUILD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF THROUGH PERIOD...AS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT ON BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DTJ
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
KRC
</PRE></TT></td>   wi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
215 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP TRENDS TODAY AND SVR POTENTIAL.
NEAR TERM...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. DISTANCE SPEED TOOL INDICATES PRECIP INTO SW IA
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOSING INTO SRN
IA...EARLY MORNING STORMS WL BEAR WATCHING.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AS WELL AS PRECIP
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE GFS BRINGS THE SFC LOW INTO FAR SE IA
AROUND 00Z...THE META 1-2 HRS SLOWER...AND THE 20KM RUC FASTER
AROUND 21Z. NGM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE LOW...THE GFS FARTHEST
EAST. IF THE NGM VERIFIES...THE OTTUMWA AREA HAS A TORNADO THREAT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE THE THREAT WOULD REMAIN TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE
MID AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS...AND SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN SRN IA.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE AFTERNOON CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH SRH
WELL OVER 300 AT OTTUMWA. WL MENTION ISOLD TORNADO THREAT INVOF
OTTUMWA IN HWO...BUT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND ALONG AND SE OF A MONTEZUMA TO
CORYDON LINE. AFTER SVR THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SFC LOW WILL
RACE TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY...WITH DEF ZONE RAINS
SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODEL QPF FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
IS SIMILAR WITH A RANGE FROM A QUARTER UP TO ABOUT 0.60 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST. HPC HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OVER 1/2
INCH OVER FA. PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES PROGGED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE TOTAL RAINFALL
AROUND AN INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ISOLD HIGHER...CERTAINLY
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME MORE RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. WL MENTION SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
SUNDAY...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FARTHER SOUTH AS VORT
LOBE ROTATES THROUGH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...WL GO WITH BLEND OF WARMER MET AND COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE TODAY. GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD (TUE-FRI):
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROVIDE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS THIS PERIOD
AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LATEST GFS BRINGS H5 LOW THROUGH REGION IN NW
FLOW AND GENERATES PRECIP ACRS CWA TUE AND WED. CANADIAN HAS PRECIP
TUES WITH WED DRY. ENSEMBLE PRECIP PROBS SUPPORT SOME PRECIP BOTH
DAYS.  FOR NOW WL INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY WEST AND ACRS ENTIRE FA WED
AND DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WITH POPS IN
THE SOUTH THURSDAY AND WARMING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.DSM...NONE
KINNEY
</PRE></TT></td>   ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
PROFILERS INDICATING 40-50KT LLJ NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT.
THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD SHEAR
PROFILES...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GOING FOR THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE KANSAS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSOURI BORDER.
.SGF...
MO...FLOOD WATCH TODAY...055>058-067>069.
KS...NONE.
GAEDE
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
130 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
EXTREMELY LONG LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS
OWN...AND GOING THROUGH CYCLES AS IT WORKS ITS WAY UP THE I44
CORRIDOR. IT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THIS STORM WOULD BE ABLE TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...HOWEVER 4 HOURS AGO WE
WOULDN'T HAVE EXPECTED IT TO LAST THIS LONG SO ALL BETS ARE OFF.
SHEAR PROFILES VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ASSUMING THAT IT WOULD
BE SURFACED BASED. STRONG CAP EVIDENT ON OUR 0Z SOUNDING HAS HELPED
PREVENT MUCH CONVECTION FROM GETTING GOING IN OUR CWA THUS FAR. SOME
SLIGHTLY MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION GOT GOING EARLY THIS EVENING
HAS BASICALLY DIED OFF.
SGF 88D SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE GRAVITY WAVES EMANATING FROM THE
SUPERCELL WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CURRENTLY FIRING UP IN THAT
"ZONE" OF GRAVITY WAVES.
GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE CELL IS GETTING...WE HAVE GOTTEN NERVOUS ENOUGH
TO SEND UP A 7Z SOUNDING TO TRY AND GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THE
LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS HAVE CHANGED AND TO HOPEFULLY ASCERTAIN HOW
STRONG THE CAP IS IN OUR AREA.
IZZI
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS: CONVECTION TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK.
ALL EYES CONTINUE TO BE ON SUPERCELL OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHICH
WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...MAINLY NORTH OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALREADY IN AFFECT TODAY...HOWEVER
BELIEVE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF JUST TO THE NORTH. LOOKING
AT SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER THIS MORNING...BELIEVE SUPERCELL SHOULD
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...OR AT THIS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS/SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. WILL DECIDE BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE IF SEVERE WORDING THIS
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-44.
ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN
OKLAHOMA...THE MESOETA IS DEPICTING A GOOD CORRELATION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VIS/FOG AND REGIONAL RADAR IS DEPICTING THIS
SCENARIO...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A GOOD FORECAST BASIS THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS
WITH CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE THIS MORNING.
THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUFKIT PARAMETERS AND
RUC INDICATE WEAKENING CAP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI BY 21Z JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL TEMPS/MOISTURE
AND WIND FIELDS INDICATE A SQUALL LINE EVENT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MISSOURI BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD BE NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA...BELIEVE A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME PERIOD. LEFT A SLIGHTLY CHANCE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO TIMING AFFECTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIOS AS
STABLE/DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. LATEST GFS RUN
CONTINUES AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN BY TUESDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED...HOWEVER I HAVE MODIFIED TUESDAY FORECAST FOR EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.SGF...
MO...FLOOD WATCH TODAY...055>058-067>069.
KS...NONE.
JLT
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
232 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2003
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TODAY AND OUT TO THE EAST OF THE
FA TONITE. STORM SYS TO MOVE UP INTO THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND
ON SUN...AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON MON THRU TUE. THIS
SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA BY LATE ON SUN AND SUN
NITE.
00-02Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 60S TO
NEAR 70F TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 5-20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS
ARE IN THE M60S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED
ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. LOW-LVLS TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA
TODAY...AND RUC SHOWS MOSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY. IR SAT
PIX/BUFCAN SHOW SOME CLDS/SPRINKLES MOVING DOWN ACRS ONT ATTM.
H85 NEUTRAL ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WK WAA
FOR TONITE AND GOOD WAA ON SUN. WK CAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ON SUN
NITE AND CONT INTO MON/MON NITE. H85 THETA-E RIDGE TO MOVE ACRS THE
FA FROM THE WEST ON SUN NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE
FA TODAY AND ON MON AFTERNOON/MON NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE TONITE AND ON SUN. LOW-LVL MSTR TO
INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND LINGER ACRS THE FA INTO
TUE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO START TO AFFECT THE FA BY LATE ON SUN AND
INTO SUN NITE...WITH GOOD MID-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON MON INTO TUE.
PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE AROUND AN INCH ON SUN AND THEN AOB
0.75" ON SUN NITE THRU MON NITE.
JUST A FEW CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. BEST CHC FOR
ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE ACRS THE WRN/CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE ON SUN AND
HAVE INDICATED THIS THINKING IN THIS FCST PACKAGE. 00Z ETA SHOWS
CAPES TO BE AOB 1000 J/KG TO THE WEST OF THE FA BY LATE ON SUN...SO A
STRAY TS MAY SNEAK INTO THE ST LAW VLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUN...
BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST FOR NOW AND SEE IF THIS TREND HOLDS.
FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL PCPN A GOOD BET ON SUN NITE THRU TUE WITH
UPR LOW SPINNING NEAR THE FA IN THIS TIME-FRAME. NO CHANGES TO THE
GOING ZFP BEYOND TUE FOR NOW.
WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.
.BTV...NONE.
MURRAY
</PRE></TT></td>   vt