FZHW50 PHFO 081845
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST SUN FEB 8 2009
 
HIZ005>011-090100-
OAHU-
900 AM HST SUN FEB 8 2009
SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 7 TO 10 FEET TODAY... 
DECREASING TO 5 TO 7 FEET MONDAY.
SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET TODAY... 
DECREASING TO 3 TO 5 FEET MONDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET TODAY AND 3 TO 5 
FEET MONDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET OCCASIONALLY 4 
FEET THROUGH MONDAY.
OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY FEB 14:
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY 
WITH A PAIR OF MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELLS REINFORCING THE SURF 
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. SMALL SOUTH SHORE SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SMALL TO MODERATE...SHORT PERIOD SURF WILL 
PERSIST ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK... 
WITH LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE THE 8 FOOT 
ADVISORY LEVEL...EXPECTED AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS DEVELOP ON 
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE ZONE OF
MAXIMUM REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.
&&
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI FEB 6 2009
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE. WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS NOT
AVAILABLE...THE LATEST COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR 
4
DAYS. 
FORECAST  SWL  DMNT DMNT  H    H     HGT          WIND   WIND   SPD
DATE      HGT  DIR  PD    1/3  1/10  TEND   PROB  SPD    DIR    TEND
1 PM        8  NW    18    16    22  SAME          7-10   ESE   SAME
02/06       3  NNE   10     4     6  DOWN
            6  ENE    7     2     4  DOWN
            3  SSW   14     4     6  SAME
SAT         7  NW    15    12    16  DOWN   HIGH  11-16   E     UP  
02/07       3  NNE    9     4     6  DOWN   LOW 
            5  ENE    8     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  S     14     2     4  DOWN   LOW 
SUN         5  NNW   13     8    10  DOWN   MED   13-19   ENE   UP  
02/08       6  ENE    7     2     4  SAME   LOW 
            2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 
MON         4  NNW   12     6     8  DOWN   LOW   13-19   E     SAME
02/09       7  ENE    7     4     6  SAME   LOW 
            2  SSW   14     2     4  UP     LOW 
TUE         3  WNW   16     4     6  UP     LOW   11-16   E     DOWN
02/10       6  E      7     2     4  UP     LOW 
            2  S     13     2     4  SAME   LOW 
WED         4  NW    14     6     8  SAME   LOW   11-16   E     SAME
02/11       7  E      8     4     6  UP     LOW 
            2  S     12     2     4  DOWN   LOW 
LEGEND:
SWL HGT    OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
           IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR   DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
           POINTS
DMNT PD    DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10      AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
           ZONE
HGT TEND   HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB       PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD   OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
           20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR   WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND   WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME 
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
SURF TRENDING DOWN FOR ALL SHORES THIS WEEKEND.
DETAILED...
MID FRIDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS HIGH SURF FROM 305-320 DEGREES 
WITH 16-19 SECOND PERIODS. IT WAS GENERATED BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT SET UP A BROAD FETCH OF STORM-FORCE WINDS 
OVER A REGION BEYOND 2400 NM FROM HAWAII EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS. 
THIS EPISODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN 
STEADILY DECLINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM 305-345 DEGREES TO SMALL 
HEIGHTS ON MONDAY.
THE NORTHERLY SWELL OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DROPPED TO SMALL LEVELS 
TODAY FROM 000-030 DEGREES AND COULD LINGER FOR ABOUT ONE MORE DAY.
THE PRIMARY JET STREAM HAS A TROUGH NEAR JAPAN AND A BLOCKING RIDGE 
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN CREATES BELOW WINTER AVERAGE 
SURF LOCALLY BECAUSE OF THE LONG TRAVEL DISTANCE AND AN UNFAVORABLE 
TRACK OF THE CENTERS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RESULTS IN A SHORT FETCH 
LENGTHS AND DURATIONS FOR ANY GIVEN DIRECTION BAND.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THIS PATTERN GAINED VIOLENT STORM WINDS IN AN 
AREA ROUGHLY MID WAY BETWEEN TOKYO AND THE DATELINE ON FRIDAY. 
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM RACING TO THE NNE AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM 
290-305 DEGREES TODAY TO 305-330 DEGREES...RELATIVE TO HAWAII...ON 
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A SMALL...LONG-PERIOD EPISODE 
ON TUESDAY FROM 300-320 DEGREES.
MODELS SHOW A SECOND SYSTEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK THAT WOULD MAKE FOR 
OVERLAPPING EPISODES...GIVING SMALL TO MODERATE BREAKERS LOCALLY 
FROM 
305-325 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
MID FRIDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD ENERGY FROM 
THE NORTHERLY SWELL FOR SELECT LOCATIONS...AND SMALL TO MODERATE 
SHORT PERIOD SWELL FROM 60-90 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF A FRONT 
PASSING WELL NORTH OF HAWAII AND REGIONAL FLATTENING OF THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT CAUSED BY A NEARBY...SMALL-SCALE...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
HAS DROPPED THE WIND SPEEDS TO GENTLE SPEEDS...WEAK ENOUGH FOR LAND 
AND SEA BREEZES ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH 
OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND THAT SHOULD RETURN THE TRADES INTO THE 
MODERATE TO MARGINALLY FRESH RANGE...ALTHOUGH ELUSIVE...WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL INFLUENCES REMAIN IN THE MODELS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE 
NORTHEAST...MAKING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND SPEED FORECASTS INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE WEATHER FORECAST 
DISCUSSION 
FOR UPDATES AND DETAILS.
MODELS SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG TRADES BEYOND 300 NM EAST OF THE 
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD TREND THE WINDSWELL FROM 60-90 DEGREES 
TOWARD THE MODERATE MARK LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID FRIDAY ON SOUTHERN SHORES HAS MODERATE BREAKERS FROM 180-200 
DEGREES. IT WAS GENERATED BY A STORM-FORCE SYSTEM SE OF NEW ZEALAND 
THIS PAST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS EPISODE PEAKED ON THURSDAY 
INTO FRIDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR SMALL HEIGHTS FOR SATURDAY 
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...STILL HIGHER THAN THE FEBRUARY SOUTH SHORE 
LEVELS...BUT SIMILAR TO THE DAY TO DAY SUMMER TIME BACKGROUND 
PATTERN. THE SERIES OF SYSTEMS AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM WERE WEAKER. 
INTO THE LONG RANGE...SOUTHERN SHORES SHOULD HOVER AT THE SUMMER 
BACKGROUND LEVELS FOR ABOUT 10 DAYS FROM MID NEXT WEEK...WITH HINTS 
OF ONE OR MORE OF THESE OVERLAPPING EPISODES TO GROW TO MODERATE 
HEIGHTS ON PEAK DAYS. DIRECTION SHOULD BE DOMINANTLY 180-200 DEGREES.
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
THE FEBRUARY AVERAGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...WITH 
CONTINUED MOSTLY SMALL TO MODERATE WNW TO NNW SWELLS...AND MAYBE A 
PEAK EPISODE TO MARGINALLY HIGH...FROM SOURCES JUST EAST OF THE 
KURIL ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...ON ABOUT A 3-4 DAY SPACING 
BETWEEN ARRIVAL. MODELS SUGGEST FRESH TO STRONG TRADES LATE NEXT 
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDSWELL RISING TOWARD THE HIGH MARK 
FROM 60-90 DEGREES. LONG RANGE ESTIMATES ARE SUBJECT TO HIGH 
UNCERTAINTY. 
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON MONDAY...FEBRUARY 9.
THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCDDC. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/  HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP
$$
NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL