AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1013 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
...CORRECTED AND UPDATED MARINE SECTION...                                      
.PUBLIC...A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL              
FLORIDA AND EXTENDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG            
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA DUE TO LIGHT              
NORTH WINDS AND GROUND MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS...WHILE                   
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER OUR FL COASTAL WATERS.                
RUC40 500MB VORTICITY OVERLAYED WITH IR SATELLITE INDICATES NEGATIVE            
VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE KJAX 12Z RAOB               
INSTABILITY INDICES REMAIN MODERATE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -3.3 AND             
CAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG.                                                         
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER             
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY...BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING MORE ZONAL. A               
WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND NOT SHUNT THE                 
MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN                 
CENTRAL FL. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR FL ZONES DUE              
TO SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL INTERACTIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH              
OF A GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE LINE. NIL CHANCE ACROSS OUR GA                
ZONES LOOK GOOD DUE TO DRIER AND A MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.            
BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC40 INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY (POSITIVE                 
VORTICITY ADVECTION) MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX THIS                   
AFTN...AND THIS ADDED ENERGY COULD INITIATE ISOLD STRONG STORMS FROM            
GNV TO SGJ...BUT LACK OF IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A               
LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE             
COAST LOOK GOOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR                 
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT TO THE NORTH BUOY 41012 AND 41008            
CONTINUE TO REPORTED SUSTAINED NEAR 10 KT WINDS. WILL ACCOUNT FOR               
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER OUR FL WATERS IN THE UPDATE AND SUSTAINED               
NEAR 10 KTS WINDS OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT EAST COAST SEABREEZE             
THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER WINDS ONSHORE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ENYEDI                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
950 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL              
FLORIDA AND EXTENDS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG            
CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED ACROSS NORTH FL AND SOUTH GA DUE TO LIGHT              
NORTH WINDS AND GROUND MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS...WHILE                   
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES OVER OUR FL COASTAL WATERS.                
RUC40 500MB VORTICITY OVERLAYED WITH IR SATELLITE INDICATES NEGATIVE            
VORTICITY ADVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE KJAX 12Z RAOB               
INSTABILITY INDICES REMAIN MODERATE WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -3.3 AND             
CAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG.                                                         
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER             
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY...BUT STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING MORE ZONAL. A               
WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND NOT SHUNT THE                 
MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN                 
CENTRAL FL. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR FL ZONES DUE              
TO SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL INTERACTIONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH              
OF A GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE LINE. NIL CHANCE ACROSS OUR GA                
ZONES LOOK GOOD DUE TO DRIER AND A MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.            
BOTH THE MESOETA AND RUC40 INDICATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY (POSITIVE                 
VORTICITY ADVECTION) MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE GOMEX THIS                   
AFTN...AND THIS ADDED ENERGY COULD INITIATE ISOLD STRONG STORMS FROM            
GNV TO SGJ...BUT LACK OF IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A               
LIMITING FACTOR. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE             
COAST LOOK GOOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE                 
WATERS THIS MORNING. AN EAST COAST SEABREEZE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP               
THIS AFTN...WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BUT REMAINING LIGHT. NO                 
CHANCES PLANNED EXCEPT TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION OVER OUR FL            
WATERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ENYEDI                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
845 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH IS              
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER                  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...ITS CENTER SHOULD BE            
PASSING JUST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE THE              
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE. HOWEVER...CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE            
MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND THE LATEST RUC MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS MUCH OF               
THE AREA AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AT 12Z. THE ALREADY LIGHT WINDS               
OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO DECREASE WITH TIME. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP               
THE FREEZE WARNING GOING AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE                   
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND FREEZE/FROST                      
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. IN THE EXTENDED THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIP                
CHANCES THU-FRI. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO NO REAL            
PREFERENCE THERE. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE             
SIMILAR THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. STUCK CLOSE TO THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE            
IN THE EXTENDED. SOME DIFFERENCES EXISTS IN THE SHORT TERM                      
MOS...WENT WITH THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT WENT              
WITH A BLEND FOR THE HIGHS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT OR NEAR              
RECORD LOWS SO WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE ZONE FORECAST.                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                 
18Z SFC CHART SHOWS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MN/SD             
BORDER AREA...BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. 12Z 925             
MB AND 8H CHARTS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION POURING               
INTO THE AREA BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION TO              
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN BECOME MORE OR LESS NEUTRAL                   
TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD              
BECOME LIGHT ESPECIALLY BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM                
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN             
BECOME IDEA FOR RADIATION AND FROST DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MOS RUNS                
COMING IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN PREV RUNS.             
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE HIGH COMING IN AND THE ASSOCIATED                    
AIRMASS...SEE NO GOOD REASON TO CHANGE THE ONGOING FREEZE WARNING               
FOR TONIGHT. I DID RAISE TEMPS 1 DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. I DO HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT HOW COLD IT MAY GET            
TONIGHT..SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS IT WILL TAKE THE DRIER AIR A                 
LITTLE LONGER TO GET THAT FAR SOUTH AND IT MAY TAKE THE WINDS A                 
LITTLE LONGER TO DROP OFF ALSO. AT THIS TIME I PLAN TO KEEP THE                 
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT IT MAY GET A LITTLE IFFY                 
SOUTH OF I-70.                                                                  
DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE TUE AND WED. AS 8H               
WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN TUE AND WED OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE AS               
COLD AND HIGHS WILL WARM EACH DAY. TOMORROW NIGHTS LOWS WILL                    
PROBABLY BE THE COLDEST IN THE E-SE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING             
FROST THERE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES                  
WARMER THAN TONIGHTS LOWS. WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON WED. SFC HIGH             
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WED-THU. RIDGE ALOFT                
SHOULD ALSO AID IN A NICE WARMUP ON WED.                                        
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                          
BASICALLY WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MED RANGE              
MODELS LOOK SIMILAR. AS USUAL THE GFS MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH             
THE PCPN COVERAGE. WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO             
FLOW NORTHWARD THU-FRI. WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTH TRIES TO DROP INTO            
THE AREA FRI-EARLY SAT WHILE INVERTED TROFF TYPE OF BOUNDARY BUILDS             
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA. WEAK ENERGY AT 500 MB ALSO DRIFTS SLOWLY             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL THIS SPELLS FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER                
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT-FRI-FRI NIGHT. I              
INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON THE ABOVE              
REASONING. AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TRIES TO BUILD MORE BACK INTO THE             
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LESS LIKELY SO I REMOVED            
PRECIP CHANCES ON SUN AND WENT WITH A DRY MONDAY. TEMPS AT OR JUST              
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.              
RECORD LOWS ON TUESDAY ARE...                                                   
PEORIA       31                                                                 
SPRINGFIELD  31                                                                 
LINCOLN      29                                                                 
CHAMPAIGN    29                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL OF CWA FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/HALL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
910 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HARD FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE          
REGION...AND RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS IN SOME AREAS.                             
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING (LOTS OF DRY AIR/CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS)            
HAS RESULTED IN TEMPS PLUNGING ALREADY INTO THE U30S/NR 40 DEGS                 
ALREADY! LOCAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE SITES WILL LIKELY SEE MINS IN RANGE            
OF 23-26 DEGS. ..MM..                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHEAST TOWARD              
THE CWA. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A DEPARTING FRONT/TROF TO OUR EAST               
ENTERING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH COOL AIR BEHIND IT. THE              
850 MB 0C ISOTHERM DIPPED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING. A BAND              
OF STRONG WINDS CIRCULATED AROUND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.                        
THE GFS AND RUC VERIFIED THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS.                            
FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...AND CHANCE OF              
RAIN LATER THIS WEEK.   ..JAZ..                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                          
GOING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. LOW LEVEL               
THERMAL FIELDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...CLEAR SKIES...AND CALM             
WINDS ARE INDICATED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS THROUGH OUR CWA. THE             
HIGH SHOULD BE AROUND QUINCY...ILLINOIS...BY 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPS                 
UNDER THE HIGH/S CENTER THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WOULD              
EXPECT THOSE TO WARM AROUND 3-4 DEGREES F FOR OUR AREA ON TUESDAY               
MORNING. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY OF AROUND 28F TO 32F WITH THE                   
COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE WARMEST             
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. ANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT            
YET HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST WILL HAVE IT TONIGHT.                           
TEMPS THEN REBOUND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF              
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING IN WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT FAIRLY            
CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO              
THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.                                                           
..JAZ..                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...COLD CANADIAN                
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WAA RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP                  
ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE.                    
EVERYTHING DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH H5 LOW IN THE PLAINS.                 
MODELS SUGGEST IT TO REMAIN NEAR THE AREA AND THUS BRING A THREAT OF            
PRECIP EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY                            
THURSDAY...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY QUESTIONS              
REMAIN ON HOW FAST PESKY H5 LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW               
HAVE GONE WITH SILENT 20 POPS OVER THE SOUTH THIRD. QUESTIONS ALSO              
REMAIN FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS DO APPEAR TO             
AGREE ON PLENTY OF NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN                 
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH                 
SILENT 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. ANY WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW                 
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME SHOWERS WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.              
&&                                                                              
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
IA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM...ALONG/SOUTH OF BRL-OTM.                
IL...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM...ALONG/SOUTH OF SQI-GBG-BRL.            
MO...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
255 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHEAST TOWARD              
THE CWA. UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A DEPARTING FRONT/TROF TO OUR EAST               
ENTERING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...WITH COOL AIR BEHIND IT. THE              
850 MB 0C ISOTHERM DIPPED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS MORNING. A BAND              
OF STRONG WINDS CIRCULATED AROUND A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY.                        
THE GFS AND RUC VERIFIED THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS.                            
FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE THE FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...AND CHANCE OF              
RAIN LATER THIS WEEK.   ..JAZ..                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...                                          
GOING FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. LOW LEVEL               
THERMAL FIELDS...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...CLEAR SKIES...AND CALM             
WINDS ARE INDICATED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS THROUGH OUR CWA. THE             
HIGH SHOULD BE AROUND QUINCY...ILLINOIS...BY 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPS                 
UNDER THE HIGH/S CENTER THIS MORNING WERE IN THE MIDDLE 20S. WOULD              
EXPECT THOSE TO WARM AROUND 3-4 DEGREES F FOR OUR AREA ON TUESDAY               
MORNING. EXPECT LOWS ON TUESDAY OF AROUND 28F TO 32F WITH THE                   
COOLEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA AND THE WARMEST             
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE CWA. ANY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT            
YET HAD LIGHT TO MODERATE FROST WILL HAVE IT TONIGHT.                           
TEMPS THEN REBOUND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SLIPS OFF              
TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR WAA TO BRING IN WARMER TEMPS. EXPECT FAIRLY            
CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO              
THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.                                                           
..JAZ..                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...COLD CANADIAN                
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING WAA RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP                  
ACROSS THE AREA. QUESTIONS REMAIN ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BASED ON INITIAL DRY ATMOSPHERE.                    
EVERYTHING DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH H5 LOW IN THE PLAINS.                 
MODELS SUGGEST IT TO REMAIN NEAR THE AREA AND THUS BRING A THREAT OF            
PRECIP EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY                            
THURSDAY...CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY QUESTIONS              
REMAIN ON HOW FAST PESKY H5 LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. FOR NOW               
HAVE GONE WITH SILENT 20 POPS OVER THE SOUTH THIRD. QUESTIONS ALSO              
REMAIN FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME PERIOD. MODELS DO APPEAR TO             
AGREE ON PLENTY OF NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN                 
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH                 
SILENT 20 POPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. ANY WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW                 
ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO POP SOME SHOWERS WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.              
&&                                                                              
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
IA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM...ALONG/SOUTH OF BRL-OTM.                
IL...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM...ALONG/SOUTH OF SQI-GBG-BRL.            
MO...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1210 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
WL SEND A GRIDS/ZONE FCST UPDATE FOR THIS PM, TO INCLUDE 20/30 POPS             
IN OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MID LEVEL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO                 
CONTINUE FESTERING WITHIN A W-E MID LVL INSTABILITY AXIS, WHERE THE             
ETA AND RUC INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE             
HOURS THIS PM. ANY OTHER TWEAKS WL BE MINOR ATTM.                               
JMC                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------                        
522 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE                
CONVECTION PUSHING INTO OKLAHOMA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD STILL                
DEVELOP IN AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BUT THEY WILL BE               
SHORTLIVED, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.                         
COX                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
343 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE TIMING OF THE WAVE              
COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEK.                                  
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH               
THE CWFA WITH A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM EXTENDING FROM EL DORADO              
TO JUST SOUTH OF KINGMAN. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH               
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. BEHIND THIS FRONT, A              
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY, BUT CANADIAN HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT AND PROVIDE DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW                
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MORE SEASONABLE              
TODAY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MID DECKS MAY FORM ACROSS                
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THETA SURFACES RISE AROUND 305K.            
THIS MAY PUT A LID ON TEMPERATURES FOR A LITTLE WHILE, BUT                      
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. WE DID RAISE TEMPERATURES A                  
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER LOOKING AT SFC               
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES. THIS CORRELATES WITH GUIDANCE TRENDS AS WELL.              
TONIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME RETURN FLOW, ESPECIALLY              
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WE DID TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP             
A COUPLE OF DEGREES, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE.                   
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                   
GFS/ETA/UKMET ARE SHOWING THE PIECES OF ENERGY STARTING TO EJECT OUT            
AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. TIMING OF THESE                   
FEATURES WILL BE TRICKY. THE ETA/GFS ARE SHOWING TWO WAVES COMING               
OUT OF THE TROF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT            
DIVERGENT ON WHERE THESE WAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH. HOWEVER, THERE IS             
SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE                    
OKLAHOMA. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THIS WAVE WILL                   
ENCOUNTER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. FOR NOW, WE WILL GO WITH                    
CONSENSUS AND MENTION THE HIGHEST POP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF              
OUR CWFA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER SHOT OF              
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE WAVE MOVES                  
ACROSS THE CWFA. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE FOCUSED IN CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE                
SUPPLY WILL BE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A LITTLE,                   
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. THE REST OF SOUTHEAST                
KANSAS, MAY STILL BATTLE THE DRY AIR EARLY ON, BUT THEY SHOULD                  
MOISTEN UP AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS               
PRETTY TRICKY SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE TROF               
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR DAMPEN OUT. FOR              
NOW, WE HAVE INSERTED A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS             
THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                                 
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:                                                                  
NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE SINCE THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN            
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH THE TROF MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE            
ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS, WHICH MAY YIELD TO A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SINCE THERE IS SOME               
TIMING CONCERNS WE WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR NOW.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    74  44  74  52 /   5   5   5  30                                
HUTCHINSON      74  44  74  52 /   5   5   5  30                                
NEWTON          73  43  74  52 /   5   5   5  30                                
ELDORADO        73  43  74  52 /   5   5   0  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  46  75  53 /  10   5   5  30                                
RUSSELL         70  43  75  51 /   5   0   5  30                                
GREAT BEND      72  44  75  52 /   5   5   5  30                                
SALINA          72  43  75  51 /   0   0   0  20                                
MCPHERSON       72  43  74  52 /   5   5   5  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  41  74  52 /  10   5   0  10                                
CHANUTE         72  39  74  51 /   5   5   0  10                                
IOLA            71  38  73  51 /   5   5   0  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
18/COX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A CHILLY NIGHT IS UNDERWAY (COLDEST SO FAR THIS FALL) AS SKIES HAVE BEEN        
CLEARING QUICKLY FROM W TO E. LAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS IS             
STILL HOLDING ON FROM MUNISING TO KERY EWD. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO                
BACK...THESE CLOUDS WILL EXIT FAR ERN FCST AREA DURING THE NIGHT.               
HOWEVER...BACK EDGE IS MOVING SLOWLY NOW...AND BASED ON SIMPLE                  
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EVENING MOVEMENT...IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL 09Z THAT              
LAST OF THE CLOUDS EXIT NE CORNER OF LUCE COUNTY. OTHERWISE...                  
DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN IS DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH NO CLOUDS                      
DEVELOPING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. FARTHER NW WHERE WAA/ISENTROPIC                
ASCENT IS MORE INTENSE...A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS IS STREAKING SE              
THRU WRN ONTARIO...BUT LEADING EDGE HAS STRUGGLED A BIT SO FAR THIS             
EVENING. 00Z RUC SHOWS STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOWEST                   
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS (295K SFC) SLIDING ESE OVERNIGHT...BUT               
REMAINING NE OF FCST AREA. NONETHELESS...NWRLY FLOW WILL BRING SOME             
OF THE CLOUDS SE INTO NRN PARTS OF FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT/TUE                   
MORNING. SHOULDN'T REALLY IMPACT LOW TEMP FCST TONIGHT THOUGH. GOING            
FCST MINS LOOK FINE...RANGING FROM ABOUT 19 IN THE TYPICAL INTERIOR             
CNTRL COLD SPOTS FROM CHAMPION TOWARD IRON RIVER TO THE 30S ON THE              
KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY VERY               
MINOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR GRIDS AND ZONES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION FOR TUE THRU MON ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT.                               
QUICK BOUNCE BACK OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION            
CONTINUES. HAVE KEPT GRIDS P/M CLOUDY IN MORNING WITH AC/CI STILL               
LINGERING. IF TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MORE             
CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS STORY FOR TUE THEN MAX TEMPS OF UPR 50S/AROUND          
60 WILL BE TOO GENEROUS. RIGHT NOW...THINK SOME INCREASING SUNSHINE             
IN AFTN WILL HELP US REACH THOSE VALUES WHICH ARE TILTED MORE TOWARD            
ETA MOS. WITHOUT MUCH CLOUD THE NGM/GFS MOS MID 50S FOR MQT SEEM TOO            
COOL.                                                                           
WED INTO THU...A QUIET PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND ON THU             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING S STREAM WAVE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH AT              
LEAST 900MB IF NOT 875MB BOTH DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE              
MID-UPR 60S. MAY END UP A BIT COOLER ALONG LK SUPERIOR ON WED IF                
LATEST ETA DEPICTION OF STRONGER HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR COMES TRUE. CONSIDERING THE LAND-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL             
BE NEAR 20F...IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGH WOULD STRENGTHEN OVR E LK                 
SUPERIOR RESULTING IN A 360-020 WIND DIRECTION FOR WED. FOR NOW WENT            
WITH LWR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                                                  
EXTENDED...00Z/06Z/12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN              
NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH H5 PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGHS THU-SAT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR N STREAM TROUGH TO DIG                
INTO UPR LAKES LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH S STREAM WAVE LIFTING TOWARD            
UPR LAKES THU. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITING FACTOR THINK THAT             
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH N STREAM WAVE MAY GENERATE SOME LGT QPF.                 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES TRENDING TOWARD THIS IDEA AS WELL. HAVE PLACED A             
SMALL CHANCE POP BACK INTO GRIDS FOR 12-18HR PERIOD FROM LATE THU               
INTO MIDDAY FRI. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED IS DRY AS TROUGH ADVERTISED TO            
SHIFT TOWARD UPR MS VALLEY AS EARLY AS SUN-MON NOW DOES NOT ENTER               
PICTURE UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL AN ABOVE NORMAL PERIOD               
FOR TEMPS IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS SWEEPS INTO REGION              
WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 10C PROGGED BY LATE WEEK. COOLER AIRMSS TRIES             
TO SLIP INTO UPR MI FRI-SAT BUT BULK OF COLD AIR REMAINS WELL TO NE             
OVR HUDSON BAY/NW ONTARIO. WILL KEEP EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBILITY OF             
COOLER TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT             
MAX TEMPS THU-SUN TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.                                   
COORD WITH GRB.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (DISCUSSION)                                                            
JLA (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 PM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS CLOUDS/TEMPS                                      
DESPITE ONSHORE FLOW IN MIXED LAYER (TO AROUND 900MB)...LK EFFECT               
HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTN.            
WILL CARRY ISOLD SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVR NE CWA UNTIL H9/H85 THERMAL             
RIDGES CROSS LK SUPERIOR. QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU IS LINGERING                  
ACROSS MUCH OF UPR MI AS WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING LK SUPERIOR IS                 
COMBINING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHORTWAVE MOVES E THIS EVENING               
AND BLYR WINDS BEGIN TO BACK TO WSW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW              
LLEVELS TO QUICKLY DRY OUT THROUGH THE EVENING. RESIDING AIRMASS IS             
BONE DRY WITH OBSERVED PWATS NEAR 0.20 INCH THIS MORNING AT UPSTREAM            
KINL AND CWPL RAOB SITES. ONCE WINDS DO SHIFT WSW...INTERIOR AREAS              
SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY.                                                        
SOME POTENTIAL PITFALLS THOUGH. WEAK PRESSURE FALLS ARE SPREADING               
IN FM CNTRL CANADA AND THIS MAY KEEP BLYR WINDS UP OVR LK SUPERIOR              
AND ADJACENT SHORELINE OF LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO W                   
INTERIOR. IN ADDITION...ETA/GFS ALSO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON WARM AIR               
ADVECTION CI/ALTOCU STREAKING INTO CNTRL MANITOBA ATTM. RUC EVEN                
SHOWS SOME CI OVR W HALF OF CWA AS EARLY AS 03Z. THINK THAT IS A BIT            
OVERDONE CONSIDERING VRY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. EVEN SO...EXPECT SOME            
CLOUDS TO FILTER INTO NW ZONES OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY KEEP MINS UP. FOR            
NOW KEPT UPR TEENS TO UPR 20S FOR MOST OF CWA (12Z COOP MOS FOR                 
CHAMPION AND BERGLAND IS 14 AND 18)...EXCEPT IN THE FAR W AND ACROSS            
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER RIGHT ALONG LK                  
SUPERIOR SHORE (BIG BAY-MARQUETTE-MUNISING). RECORD LOW FOR MQT IS              
21 FOR TONIGHT (1965) AND WITH THE COMBO OF AT LEAST SOME WIND AND              
ANY AC/CI THAT COULD BE SAFE.                                                   
QUICK BOUNCE BACK OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR TUE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION            
CONTINUES. HAVE KEPT GRIDS P/M CLOUDY IN MORNING WITH AC/CI STILL               
LINGERING. IF TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MORE             
CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE IS STORY FOR TUE THEN MAX TEMPS OF UPR 50S/AROUND          
60 WILL BE TOO GENEROUS. RIGHT NOW...THINK SOME INCREASING SUNSHINE             
IN AFTN WILL HELP US REACH THOSE VALUES WHICH ARE TILTED MORE TOWARD            
ETA MOS. WITHOUT MUCH CLOUD THE NGM/GFS MOS MID 50S FOR MQT SEEM TOO            
COOL.                                                                           
WED INTO THU...A QUIET PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND ON THU             
AHEAD OF APPROACHING S STREAM WAVE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH AT              
LEAST 900MB IF NOT 875MB BOTH DAYS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE              
MID-UPR 60S. MAY END UP A BIT COOLER ALONG LK SUPERIOR ON WED IF                
LATEST ETA DEPICTION OF STRONGER HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER LAKE                   
SUPERIOR COMES TRUE. CONSIDERING THE LAND-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL             
BE NEAR 20F...IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGH WOULD STRENGTHEN OVR E LK                 
SUPERIOR RESULTING IN A 360-020 WIND DIRECTION FOR WED. FOR NOW WENT            
WITH LWR 60S NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                                                  
EXTENDED...00Z/06Z/12Z GFS ALONG WITH 00Z ECMWF/UKMET AND CANADIAN              
NOW COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH H5 PATTERN AND SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGHS THU-SAT. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR N STREAM TROUGH TO DIG                
INTO UPR LAKES LATE THU INTO FRI...WITH S STREAM WAVE LIFTING TOWARD            
UPR LAKES THU. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITING FACTOR THINK THAT             
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH N STREAM WAVE MAY GENERATE SOME LGT QPF.                 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES TRENDING TOWARD THIS IDEA AS WELL. HAVE PLACED A             
SMALL CHANCE POP BACK INTO GRIDS FOR 12-18HR PERIOD FROM LATE THU               
INTO MIDDAY FRI. OTHERWISE...EXTENDED IS DRY AS TROUGH ADVERTISED TO            
SHIFT TOWARD UPR MS VALLEY AS EARLY AS SUN-MON NOW DOES NOT ENTER               
PICTURE UNTIL MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL AN ABOVE NORMAL PERIOD               
FOR TEMPS IS EXPECTED AS PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS SWEEPS INTO REGION              
WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND 10C PROGGED BY LATE WEEK. COOLER AIRMSS TRIES             
TO SLIP INTO UPR MI FRI-SAT BUT BULK OF COLD AIR REMAINS WELL TO NE             
OVR HUDSON BAY/NW ONTARIO. WILL KEEP EYE ON THIS FOR POSSIBILITY OF             
COOLER TEMPS NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH ONSHORE FLOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECT             
MAX TEMPS THU-SUN TO REACH WELL INTO THE 60S.                                   
COORD WITH GRB.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1018 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPATE IS THE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A RIDGE BLANKETS THE                  
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE SWEEPING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS OVER MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS                 
DEPICTS A BROAD HIGH BLANKETING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
AND SPREADING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                       
THE SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL             
MOVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE OVER              
MANITOBA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF WEST COAST RIDGE AND REACH                  
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE                 
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR WILL             
BE DRAWN IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER            
VALLEY HIGH AND GENERATE A WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS.                         
ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER            
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COOL DRY CANADIAN AIR INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING SPECIFIC              
HUMIDITY LESS THAN 1 G/KG ALL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND            
CENTRAL U.P. WS ETA IS BRINGING AN AREA OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR                   
CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB                  
TEMPERATURES IS -9C THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LAKE TEMEPREATURES IS 8C.            
RUC/ETA12 SHOWING 9250MB RH AROUND 90 PERCENT OVER THE EAST PART OF             
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY             
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONDITIONS LOOK                  
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN TO OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN U.P.              
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES COOL              
ACROSS THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW              
LEVEL MIXING TO LIMIT HEATING. GUIDANCE IS VERIFYING WELL AT THIS               
TIME...SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS WELL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
750 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW SCATTERER SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO OUR NRN               
COUNTY WARNING AREA.  BASED ON THE 09Z RUC AND LOOPS OF RUC                     
SOUNDINGS IT SEEMS THE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE               
SOUTH FAR ENOUGH TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS GRAND               
RAPIDS AND IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW                       
SHOWERS...THANKS TO DAY TIME HEATING...WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO GET             
TO HASTINGS AND EATON RAPIDS.  SO I UPDATED THE FORECAST TO HAVE                
SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF GRAND RAPIDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO JUST            
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.                                                         
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL LEAVE GALES UP FOR NOW            
BUT LIKELY WILL TAKE THEM DOWN SHORTLY. NONE OF OUR REPORTING                   
STATIONS (BUOYS ETC) REPORT ANY WIND GUSTS OVER 35KT FOR SEVERAL                
HOURS NOW.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE WATERS FROM              
NEW BUFFALO TO MANISTEE.                                                        
FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY FOR              
OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE...                    
OSCEOLA... CLARE... NEWAYGO... MECOSTA AND ISABELLA COUNTIES.                   
&&                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
245 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONCERNS HERE CONTINUE             
TO BE TEMPERATURES ALONG WHETHER OR NOT RAIN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY              
NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS OVER CWA.                 
SATELLITE AND PROFILER DATA CONTINUES TO PLACE US BETWEEN NORTHERN              
AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WITH NEB PROFILERS...MRR...RWD AND FBY ALL                 
SHOWING 10 KTS OR LESS AT 300 MB. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WELL              
SOUTH OF REGION AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SIOUX CITY AT              
18Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN            
YESTERDAY ATTM.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WE GET              
INTO RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. PRETTY                
GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE BY TOMORROW AND COULD SEE               
BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. SHOULD STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN SO            
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER AND BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN                 
TODAY. IN REGARDS TO START OF RAIN CHANCES WITH UPPER SYSTEM SET TO             
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GFS CONTINUING TO GIVE OUR SW CWA A                
SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE ETA AND RUC HOLD OFF A BIT.              
ISENTROPIC PLOT SHOWS THIS WELL AS LIFT MUCH BETTER TO OUR SW ON GFS            
OVER THE ETA. LEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION AND AM             
TEMPTED TO DROP RAIN CHANCE BUT WE ONLY HAVE A 20 POP NOW SO WILL               
LEAVE AS IS.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD IS            
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING              
UPPER TROF. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ETA CONTINUE INTO THE                       
EXTENDED...W/ GFS OFFERING A STRONGER/CLOSED S/W LIFTING THRU MEAN              
TROF AXIS ACROSS WRN NEB. ECMWF SOLUTION NOT AS ROBUST...BUT DOES               
LEND MORE SUPPORT TO THE GFS. BEARING THAT IN MIND...HAVE RAISED                
POPS A BIT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING HIGHEST CHANCES              
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB COUNTIES IN PROGGED REGION OF BEST LIFT. ALSO                 
EXTENDED POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY SE HALF...W/ FOCUS OF                 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHIFTING EAST AS MEAN TROF AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL            
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL POPS MAY REQUIRED FRIDAY OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES                
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF CUT-OFF ENERGY. CONTINUED TO LEAVE           
OUT THUNDER MENTION W/ INSTABILITY STILL LOOKING ON THE MARGINAL                
SIDE...THOUGH DID OPT FOR SHOWER VS RAIN WORDING AS A TREND TOWARD              
MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.                                                  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NO REAL AIRMASS CHANGES OF NOTE ASIDE FROM                
SOME COOLER AIR TRYING TO BACKDOOR INTO AREA ON SUNDAY...SO DAY TO              
DAY TEMPERATURES TO BE DICTATED TO LARGE EXTENT BY CLOUDS/PRECIP                
COVERAGE. SAW LITTLE REASON TOO MAKE ANY LARGE MODIFICATIONS TO                 
TEMPERATURES...WITH BIGGEST CHANGE BEING OVER THE WEEKEND AS EXTENDED           
MODELS HAVE PUSHED ARRIVAL OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO FIRST PART OF NEXT             
WEEK. STUCK GENERALLY WITH LOW 70S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 40S/MID 50S              
FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EWALD/VII                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1007 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
NPW...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM. VISIBILITIES            
STILL RUNNING 1/4 MILE AT UDG AND ILM. DID NOT ADD POPS TO ZONES FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERING INVERSION AT 700MB ON BOTH CHS AND MHX               
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND NVA AT 500MB. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS. A CATEGORY             
CONSIDERING 850 TEMPS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS AND ABUNDANT              
INSOLATION EXPECTED AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF.                                    
ZONES ALREADY REFLECT THE EXTENSION OF NPW AND WILL ISSUE ANOTHER               
UPDATE AT EXPIRATION ON EVENT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MODELS INDICATING THAT ST/FG WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING.             
WILL GO WITH VISIBILITIES RAPIDLY IMPROVING BY 14Z...BUT LIFTING FG             
WILL GO TO LOW STRATUS AND WILL GO SCT BY 15-16Z. AFTER 16Z...VFR               
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS REMAINDER OF DAY. FOG WILL TRY TO                   
REDEVELOP TONIGHT...HOWEVER FEEL IT WILL ONLY BE 4-5NM. HIGH                    
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY 9-10Z AND WHATEVER FOG IS PRESENT                
SHOULD DISSIPATE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SEAS RUNNING AROUND 2.5 FT AT THE BUOYS WITH A LIGHT WEST WINDS. RUC            
SHOWING LIGHT W TO NW WIND AND REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH             
THE DAY. WAVE WATCH III PRODUCING 2 FEET AT ILM01 AND ILM02 FOR THE             
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.   CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO CHANGES               
PLANNED ON THE MORNING UPDATE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON OCT 4 2004                
SHORT TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                                 
WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS AT THE            
MOMENT.  FOG IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WITH MANY            
OBSERVATION SITES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO 1/4SM VISIBILITY.                    
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALREADY POSTED FOR INLAND COUNTIES.  STILL A LOT             
OF THE NIGHT AHEAD AND POOR VISIBILITY JUST ABOUT ALL THE WAY TO THE            
COAST...SO WILL EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL BUT GEORGETOWN               
COUNTY...WHERE A LIGHT SSE GRADIENT AND SOME LOW CLOUDINESS SEEM TO             
HAVE DISRUPTED FOG FORMATION. VIS SHOULD IMPROVE BEGINNING AROUND 9             
AM.                                                                             
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO               
SUNDAY'S.  H8 TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER 80S...CLOSE TO GUIDANCE                 
NUMBERS.                                                                        
NEXT PLAYER IS SEEN UPSTREAM AS AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT              
DIVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  FRONT SHOULD GO THROUGH DRY               
BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.                                                        
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEGINNING ON TUE.  THE               
COOLEST PERIOD WILL BE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT.  WILL GO FOR                
MINS AROUND 50 INLAND...AND BASED ON PROGGED H8 TEMPS...WED MAX                 
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 70S.  AFTER THAT TEMPS                     
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO.                                               
LATEST GFS HINTS AT A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME ON SAT...BUT WITH THE            
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE I WILL LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW.                         
MARINE...                                                                       
RADAR/MESO-NET OVERLAY ON AWIPS SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED LAND-                 
BREEZE MOVING OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF            
THE LAND-BREEZE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW IS LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTH. WITH             
A WEAK FRONT OR TROUGH IN THE VICINITY TODAY AND VIRTUALLY NO                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT...DIURNAL CYCLES WILL DOMINATE THE WINDS NEAR-                
SHORE. WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK               
SEA-BREEZE.                                                                     
STRONG NORTHERLY SURGE FINALLY BEGINS IN EARNEST TUESDAY MORNING AS             
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. COLD AIR                   
ADVECTING ACROSS THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PROMOTE GOOD VERTICAL            
MIXING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE                
OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE STILL WELL IN THE 80S.               
THE HIGH SETTLES IN VERY NEAR TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY            
INTO FRIDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.             
FOG HAS BECOME DENSE AT WILMINGTON AND DARLINGTON. FOG AND LOW                  
CEILINGS SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE 13-16Z TIME FRAME. MOS GUIDANCE                 
SEEMS TO INDICATE THE FOG COULD LIFT IN LOW STATUS FOR A COUPLE                 
HOURS...GFS MOS STILL HAS CAT 1 CEILINGS AT SEVERAL SITES AS LATE AS            
15Z. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY NOON HOWEVER AND CONTINUE                 
THROUGH TONIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...SHK                                                       
AVIATION (UPDATE)...HDL                                                         
MARINE (UPDATE)...DRH                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1015 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PREV FCST LOOKS TO BE VERY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTN. SFC HIGH                
PREC OVER SD/MN BORDER THIS MRNG WL SLIDE SLOWLY SEWD THRU THE AFTN.            
MIXING WL BE MINIMAL WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE RDG...BUT WL HAVE               
PLENTY OF SUN TO HELP WARM TEMPS. AREA 12Z SNDGS AND LATEST RUC AND             
MESOETA SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FM LWR 50S E TO LOWER 60S W.                      
NO CHGS TO ZFP ATTM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
800 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGES...DOPPLER RADAR AND                
MSAS ANALYSIS AGREE ON PERSISTENT MSTR CONVERGENCE TO THE RIO GRANDE            
VALLEY THROUGH 72H. PRONOUNCED INVERTED SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM            
THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS INTO THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS. ALOFT...A             
BROAD UPPER TROUGH LAGS BEHIND (WEST) OF GULF SURFACE TROUGH WITH A             
SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH               
THE FLOW OVER TIME. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT BISECTING TX...THIS                 
SYNOPTIC SITUATION SPELLS FLOODING RAINS FOR AREAS IN OR NEAR DEEP              
SOUTH TX.                                                                       
ATTM...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HVY RAINS IN THE RIO GRANDE              
VALLEY BY TUE AFTERNOON...AND AN INCREASING OF AREAL COVERAGE AND               
INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS FROM 18Z CONTINUES TO TRY TO              
CLOSE A SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE KENEDY COUNTY COAST BY EARLY              
FRIDAY MORNING. IF LLVL FLOW INDUCED BY SURFACE LOW REMAINS NW OVER             
LAND AND SOUTHERLY OVER THE ADJ GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT            
THE MAJORITY OF FLOODING RAINS COULD REMAIN OVER THE LOWER TX GULF              
WATERS. ANY MINOR DEVIATION TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW               
WOULD RESULT IN COPIOUS RAINS ENTERING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY                    
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.                                                     
IT IS PRUDENT ATTM TO MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT 60 PERCENT DAYTIME...40              
PERCENT POPS NIGHTTIME ARRAY...SLIGHTLY LOWER INLAND...AND ALLOW ONE            
MORE RUN OF MODELS AND ANOTHER ANALYSIS BY NHC BEFORE INTRODUCING A             
MORE AGGRESSIVE ZFPBRO...WITH HVY RAFL WORDING AND FLOOD                        
POSSIBILITIES. AFTER OUR PENDING 05.0000Z RUN...AN INCREASE OF POPS             
AND FLOOD POTENTIAL PRODUCTS...ALONG WITH MARINE STATEMENTS MAY BE              
NECESSARY.                                                                      
WITH CURRENT SHOWER FORMATION OVER THE ADJ GULF WATERS...AND IN                 
SOUTHERN HIDALGO COUNTY...WILL LEAVE OUR CURRENT ARRAY OF POPS IN               
PLACE FOR THE ZONES OF DEEP SOUTH TX. NO CHANGES ATTM.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE                          
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS WILLACY COUNTY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF              
NORTHEAST MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS PER RUC 200MB WIND                  
ANALYSIS THAT JET ACROSS NORTHERN GULF PROVIDING Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE            
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES                  
ACROSS SOUTH TX. HOWEVER...MOIST AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA             
HAVE PRODUCED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. IN                            
ADDITION...1000-500MB RUC STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE                
ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THIS              
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY              
OF CAMPECHE TO ADVECT TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO                   
TUESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS UPPER LEVELS AS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN            
GULF INTO SOUTH TX. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO                 
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE                  
SOUTHWEST GULF WED NIGHT. WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THE NEXT                  
COUPLE OF DAYS TO REFLECT THIS TREND. MAV TEMP GUIDANCE FAIRLY                  
REASONABLE SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS EXPECTED FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.            
BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR THURSDAY WITH A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING                 
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AS            
THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE                 
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE             
NEEDED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES SLOWLY                     
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY PER THE 12Z GFS90 MODEL                
SOLUTION. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY WILL              
MOVE LITTLE PROVIDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN HALF OF TX AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST                   
LOUISIANA SATURDAY. DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AS                  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE AND THE COASTAL TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF KEEPS BULK OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE THE              
LOWER TX COAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS SAT NIGHT AND KEEP                
RAIN CHANCES OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 2350 UTC BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS              
GUSTING TO NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3 FEET WITH A 7                
SECOND PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ON                  
DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE MARINE ZONES MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS. CURRENT            
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TREND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE                 
WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK LOOKS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES            
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MFE AIRPORT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ONE OF THE ONLY                  
THUNDERSTORMS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND THIS IS NOTED IN THE CURRENT            
TAF PACKAGE. SPEAKING OF TAFS...HAVE ALLOWED THE CHANCE OF MORNING              
FOG TO STAND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE                  
ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR             
TUESDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON               
RAIN WILL ALLOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN AND NEAR THIS                 
ACTIVITY...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. VFR                    
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE BRO CWA THROUGH THE             
NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  85  73  84  73 /  20  50  30  60  40                   
BROWNSVILLE          72  86  72  85  72 /  20  50  30  60  40                   
HARLINGEN            71  86  71  85  71 /  20  50  40  60  40                   
MCALLEN              72  87  72  86  72 /  30  50  40  60  40                   
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  87  71  86  71 /  30  40  30  60  40                   
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  76  83  76 /  20  50  30  60  50                   
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/66/AV                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
725 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN               
PORTION OF HGX CWA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.  WITH THE            
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY.             
THERE IS SOME MID/UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS HELPING OUT.  LATEST RUC                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS H4-H25 VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY.  THIS            
IS ALSO SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.  WILL LOSE THE LIFT PROVIDED              
BY THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH CURRENT TRENDS IN                
MIND...WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE ZONES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY HIGHER               
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH INCREASING RAIN               
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE              
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FEEDS INTO THE AREA.  BEST RAIN CHANCES                
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL                    
POSSIBLE.  FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WEIGH THE FLASH FLOOD                     
POTENTIAL...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND TO A LARGE DEGREE ON WHERE THE TROF            
SETS UP IN RELATION TO THE COAST.  EXPECT DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW TO               
KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE WEST FAIRLY DRY BY MIDWEEK.  WILL SEND OUT                
UPDATE SHORTLY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI  73 87 72 83 72 / 20 40 40 50 50                                 
VICTORIA        69 86 69 82 70 / 40 40 30 50 50                                 
LAREDO          73 87 72 85 72 / 20 50 30 40 40                                 
ALICE           70 89 71 84 71 / 20 50 30 50 50                                 
ROCKPORT        74 87 75 83 74 / 30 30 40 50 50                                 
COTULLA         70 86 70 84 71 / 30 50 30 40 40                                 
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
94/MJ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
335 PM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION                    
DEVELOPING ACROSS WILLACY COUNTY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST               
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS PER RUC 200MB WIND ANALYSIS THAT              
JET ACROSS NORTHERN GULF PROVIDING Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE ACROSS DEEP              
SOUTH TEXAS AS LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTH TX.             
HOWEVER...MOIST AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA HAVE PRODUCED                
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...1000-500MB RUC                
STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE UPPER              
TX COAST HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO ADVECT            
TOWARDS THE LOWER TX COAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL AS                
UPPER LEVELS AS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN               
ROCKIES DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTH TX.                   
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK                 
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF WED NIGHT.            
WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REFLECT THIS             
TREND. MAV TEMP GUIDANCE FAIRLY REASONABLE SO NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS               
EXPECTED FOR MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...BEST RAIN CHANCES APPEAR THURSDAY WITH A COASTAL LOW               
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER             
TX COAST AS THE 500MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO             
PROVIDE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEPENDING ON              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...FLASH FLOOD                 
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES               
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND FRIDAY PER THE 12Z GFS90               
MODEL SOLUTION. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY             
WILL MOVE LITTLE PROVIDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE            
EASTERN HALF OF TX AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHWEST                   
LOUISIANA SATURDAY. DRYING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SAT AFTERNOON AS                  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES SUBSIDENCE AND THE COASTAL TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF KEEPS BULK OF PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE THE              
LOWER TX COAST. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS SAT NIGHT AND KEEP                
RAIN CHANCES OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PUSHED DOWN FROM CANADA            
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST TODAY AND WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE                    
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL GENERATE EAST WINDS             
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE HIGH              
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...THERE IS A GOOD              
CHANCE THAT IT WILL ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH               
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE               
THAT A CLOSED LOW COULD EMERGE OUT OF THIS TROUGH BY FRIDAY AND MOVE            
NORTH ALONG THE WEST GULF COAST. THEREFORE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IN                       
ADDITION...THE BROAD EAST FETCH OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF OF                  
MEXICO WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO FULLY DEVELOP.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE                
WEST GULF COAST IS PRODUCING MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER RIO            
GRANDE VALLEY. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS             
DEVELOPED AROUND THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. THE CHANCE FOR VSBY                    
RESTRICTION AND LOW CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE             
EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING HAS OCCURRED AND            
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO AN ISOLATED/SCATTERED STATE FOR            
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND QUITE SLUGGISH             
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS               
WHERE OUTFLOWS MAY PRODUCE VARIABLE GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. THE LIGHT             
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SURFACE MOISTURE VALUES MAY PRODUCE A ROUND OF            
FOG AROUND SUNRISE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  85  73  84  73 /  20  50  30  60  40                   
BROWNSVILLE          72  86  72  85  72 /  20  50  30  60  40                   
HARLINGEN            71  86  71  85  71 /  20  50  40  60  40                   
MCALLEN              72  87  72  86  72 /  30  50  40  60  40                   
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  87  71  86  71 /  30  40  30  60  40                   
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  76  83  76 /  20  50  30  60  50                   
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
61/69/AV                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1050 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS              
NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING ELEVATED              
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND WEST TX. SATELLITE                  
IMAGES ALSO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED               
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHWEST GULF              
OF MEXICO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT TO                
LESS THAN TWO INCHES BUT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS PERSIST WITH                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE WIDELY SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING WESTWARD. WITH              
LOW TO MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE UPPER TX COAST...MOISTURE OVER            
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD. IN                 
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC 200MB STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS            
INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WITH 200MB JET                
EXITING ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH                 
CENTRAL TX WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST              
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP WITH DIURNAL HEATING.                           
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY             
BUT LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY WEST. ALSO...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT               
CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR LESS               
CLOUDS EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...A LARGE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH DOWN                
INTO THE NORTHERN MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN SLIDE EAST INTO THE                    
MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL GENERATE EAST WINDS             
OVER MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE HIGH              
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES...THERE IS A GOOD              
CHANCE THAT IT WILL ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH               
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE               
THAT A CLOSED LOW COULD EMERGE OUT OF THIS TROUGH BY FRIDAY AND MOVE            
NORTH ALONG THE WEST GULF COAST. THEREFORE...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IN                       
ADDITION...THE BROAD EAST FETCH OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF OF                  
MEXICO WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO FULLY DEVELOP.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF            
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL            
BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE IS            
STILL A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND             
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND QUITE SLUGGISH IN              
THE LOWER LEVELS...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE OUTFLOWS MAY                 
PRODUCE VARIABLE GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 300AM MON)IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT              
THE CARIB TROPICAL WAVE HAS NOW MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND              
IS GENERATING A DECENT SPREAD OF CONV ALONG AND SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES             
NORTH LATITUDE. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS PUSHING THIS FEATURE INTO             
THE MEXICAN COASTLINE WITH THE SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED             
WITH THIS WAVE SLOWLY ADVECTING NORTHWARDS INTO SOUTH TX THROUGH 60S            
HRS.  THE EVENING BRO SOUNDING IS ALREADY PRETTY MOIST WITH A PWAT              
OF AROUND 2 INCHES AND A SOLID EASTERLY FLOW EVIDENT UP THROUGH 700             
MB.  FURTHER NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...SHALLOW 5H RIDGING WILL               
PERSIST OVER THE TX/MEX REGION UNTIL A STRONG 5H TROUGH DIGS INTO               
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES IN THE 48 TO 60 HR PERIOD.  BELIEVE             
THAT CONV OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY                
HEATING DRIVEN AND WILL MAINTAIN THE BEST CONV CHCS DURING THE                  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAV AND MET ARE IN BETTER                    
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY AND WILL LIKELY               
FOLLOW THIS TREND FOR THE POPS TODAY AND TUES.  MAV AND MET FORECAST            
TEMPS LOOK OK.  SOIL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE GENERALLY UNSATURATED             
AND ACCORDINGLY THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE BRO IS FAIRLY                  
HIGH.  SO FOR NOW THE FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE PRETTY LOW.              
HOWEVER...THIS SITUATION MAY CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK IF ADDITIONAL             
RAINS SATURATE THE SOIL CONDITIONS. NO FFA NEEDED ATTM.                         
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
61/69/SM                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
228 AM MDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER                
IOWA AND A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH. SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT/METARS             
INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND                 
WICHITA/GREELEY COUNTY KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TROUGH/              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER SOUTHERN UTAH MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHWEST                  
COLORADO. LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT               
SHOWERS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVING NORTHEAST.                             
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS POPS. THERE ARE SOME            
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ETA/GFS. ETA IS DRYER WITH LOWER POPS AND THE              
GFS WETTER WITH HIGHER POPS. A BLEND SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SOLUTION.             
BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION              
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS APPEAR IN AGREEMENT THAT                      
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.             
THE GFS HANGS ON TO THE TROUGH LONGER THAN THE ETA SO WILL KEEP A               
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE              
FORECAST AREA. LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE               
PREDOMINATE TYPE WITH NO THUNDER.                                               
ANOTHER CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG                 
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC INDICATES SOME 80 PERCENT SURFACE                
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND EXTREME WESTERN            
KANSAS COUNTIES. TIME HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS LEAD TO IDEA OF MAINLY              
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z. PLAN TO INCLUDE MOSTLY                
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PATCHY            
FOG.                                                                            
850 TEMPERATURES WARM 4-6 DEGREES TODAY AND THEN COOL A DEGREE OR               
TOW WEDNESDAY AND WARM UP TO NEAR 20 DEGREES C ON THURSDAY. MOSTLY              
CLOUDY CONDITIONS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES                     
WEDNESDAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL HELP WARM MAX TEMPERATURES UP                
THURSDAY BUT SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL            
LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES SOME SO WILL KEEP IN THE LOWER 70S. PLAN TO              
GO BETWEEN MET/MAV GUIDANCE.                                                    
OTHER THAN REMOVING POPS/WEATHER FOR SATURDAY MADE NO OTHER CHANGES             
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE SECTION                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
354 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC STILL EXPECT ANOTHER               
SURGE OF WIND LATER THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 850 MB                 
FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD                
GENERALLY BE TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A              
FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS...           
BUT FEEL ODDS ARE AGAINST IT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
LATEST BUOY REPORTS BUT DOWNGRADE THE GALES TO SMALL CRAFT                      
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE COUNTY               
WARNING AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE JUST AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO WERE OCCURRING TO THE                 
NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE               
FRONT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
WILL FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION SO DESPITE                
SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.                    
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL              
COOLING TONIGHT. THE MERCURY WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S                
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW             
HAMPSHIRE. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR                  
THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE                
LOW TO MID 30S SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. THE EXCEPTION WILL               
BE THE HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON...CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...AS WELL AS                
BLOCK ISLAND WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED.             
DESPITE DRYER AIRMASS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TYPICALLY              
PRONE AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                   
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OFF SUNNY BUT TURN PARTLY                
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A MOISTURE                 
STARVED SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT A             
SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME                
BECAUSE EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS NO REAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...                             
COMING LATER                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS            
PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE                   
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH A TOUCH OF CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET              
IS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT MANY OF THE                    
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND                
THE OUTER ISLANDS. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED                    
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY            
FOG WILL AFFECT THE DEEP VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE REGION. ALTHOUGH GALE                   
WARNINGS ARE MARGINAL ETA HAS SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25                 
KNOTS FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. WITH OCEAN WATER STILL AROUND 60                    
DEGREES THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS                 
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT                     
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AS WINDS SLACKEN.                                     
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FROST ADVISORY ALL ZONES.                                                  
MA...FREEZING WARNING NW ZONES, FROST ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT               
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET                                                 
NH...FREEZE WARNING ZONES 011, 015, FROST ADVISORY ZONE 012                     
RI...FROST ADVISORIES ALL ZONES EXCEPT BLOCK ISLAND.                            
MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR                                       
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FRANK                                                              
LONG TERM...JWD                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE ADVISORY                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
315 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WED)...                                                    
BASED ON 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD ADVECTION            
EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA...TO JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND...TO SOMEWHERE            
IN THE EXTREME NW PIEDMONT.  AHEAD OF THAT THE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY            
WEAK...WITH QUITE A BIT OF DENSE FOG NOTED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF            
THE ILM CWA.                                                                    
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS...SO               
WILL POST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MY INLAND COUNTIES. UNLIKE THE               
LAST FEW DAYS...VIS SHOULD COME UP QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE JUST             
FROM POST FRONTAL MIXING...IF NOT FROM HEATING.                                 
CAA IS RATHER MODEST TODAY...AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL.  LOW               
LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERN AND H8 TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEATLY INTO            
THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THAT SOMEWHAT AND GO IN LINE WITH MAV                 
NUMBERS.                                                                        
EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WED...AS SOME                  
SHEARED OUT UPPER VORT ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.               
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.  EXPECT               
CONDITIONS TO CLEAR OUT QUITE NICELY BY WED AFTERNOON ONCE THE UPPER            
TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH MON)...                                           
SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ON AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW.               
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING...WITH LOWS AROUND 50                    
INLAND...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO BY SAT.              
MOISTURE IS SERIOUSLY LACKING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS...EVEN            
WITH SAT OR SUN FROPA.  WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                         
CONDITIONS...AND KNOCK MON TEMPS BACK A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE NE SURGE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. HAVE                   
CONTINUED GOING 4-6 KT HIGHER IN THE GRIDS THAN GFS/ETA BLEND WOULD             
SUGGEST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAA OVER STILL QUITE WARM NEARSHORE                 
WATERS. HAVE ALSO BUILT SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE              
INDICATES. THE MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE               
FINALLY WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CANADIAN HIGH               
SETTLES OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WAVEWATCH INDICATES A 3 FT            
EASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPING ABOUT THE SAME TIME WHICH KEEPS SEAS                  
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WINDS WOULD INDICATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO             
SATURDAY.                                                                       
MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET WITH SEAS AWAY               
FROM SHORE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR               
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN               
WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF VERTICAL MIXING...25 KT GUSTS SHOULD              
NOT OCCUR WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ADVERTISING SCA               
CONDITIONS JUST YET.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHALLOW MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EQUALS                 
WIDESPREAD FOG/MIST AROUND THE AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS             
MOISTURE IS LITERALLY ONLY ONE OR TWO HUNDRED FEET THICK WITH                   
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 15 DEG C AT 1000 FT AGL. THIS DRY AIR            
WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AS IT                
MIXES DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. ONLY OTHER AVIATION              
WEATHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF 3000-4000 FT CIGS DEVELOPING              
AROUND SUNSET AS THE NE FLOW COLLECTS MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. ETA               
SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY THE STRONGEST BUT IS SUPPORTED ONLY WEAKLY BY            
THE GFS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY BLADEN-COLUMBUS-ROBESON COUNTIES.                       
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY MARLBORO-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG            
COUNTIES.                                                                       
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...RAS                                                      
AVIATION/MARINE...TRA                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
315 AM CDT TUE OCT  5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WHERE THE             
GROUND IS STILL MOIST FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN WITH LIGHT WIND                     
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE                
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE LOWEST                    
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MOISTURE IS             
GREATEST. ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NEW MEXICO. THE RUC               
APPEARS TO INITIALIZE THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE THE BEST WITH THE               
NOSE OF THE UPPER JET REACHING THE AREA BY 18Z. CURRENTLY HAVE                  
JUST LOW POPS ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN                    
OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT IF THE RUC IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO RAISE               
POPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY ACCORDINGLY.                                     
OTHERWISE...TSRA SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS             
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCES A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE             
LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE            
INCLUDED THIS IN THE GRIDS. TSRA MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THROUGH                 
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF TSRA ARE            
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.              
THE MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH              
TIME...SUGGESTING AT LEAST QPF MAY LOWER WITH TIME. BY THIS                     
WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH MARKING THE WESTERN EDGE OF            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA HELPING TO                
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  57  69  61 /  10  60  60  50                              
HOBART OK         73  59  67  62 /  30  80  60  50                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  68  63 /  30  80  60  50                              
GAGE OK           73  57  67  56 /  30  80  60  50                              
PONCA CITY OK     76  54  70  60 /  10  50  60  50                              
DURANT OK         78  56  74  61 /  10  50  60  50                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
932 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY                  
WESTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COMING ASHORE BETWEEN FLAGLER              
BEACH AND SAINT LUCIE INLET WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCURRING OFFSHORE             
FROM THE CAPE TO VERO BEACH. AREA UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN            
INCREASING DEPTH OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS DUE TO PERSIST                 
EASTERLY FLOW. LIGHTNING DETECTION EQUIPMENT WAS INDICATING A FEW               
STORMS AROUND THE GULF STREAM. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN WAS SHOWING                 
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS IN            
THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES DURING               
THE MORNING. WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED TO INCREASE              
RAIN COVERAGE BUT FOR NOW DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A MID MORNING               
UPDATE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN FOR 1ST PERIOD AS A              
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE BEING DETECTED OVER THE GULF STREAM.                  
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH NEXT CWF PACKAGE.                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
   ...RIVER FLOOD WARNING MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WIMMER                                                             
LONG TERM...GLITTO                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
925 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HAZY DAY AS ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT            
PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A SECOND FRONT LINGERS ACROSS              
CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF THE FL EAST COAST. A            
FEW SHOWERS HAVE JUST BRUSHED EXTREME SOUTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY THIS              
MORNING DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS                    
STALLING FRONT. FURTHER INLAND BANKS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST. ONE BANK             
EXTENDS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR FL ZONES FROM CENTRAL CLAY TO GILCHRIST             
COUNTY...WHILE THE SECOND BANK COVERS MUCH OF WAYNE...PIERCE AND                
GLYNN COUNTIES IN GA.                                                           
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL CARRY PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID-MORNING AS DECK              
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE SINCE MIXING WILL BE LIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS            
BTWN TWO FRONTS THIS MORNING. THE SECOND COLD/DRY FRONT TO AFFECT               
THE AREA NOW EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH GA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO            
SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITH DEW              
PT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEG ACROSS MOST OF OUR                     
CWA...REALLY DON'T SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10            
BUT EXPECT ANOTHER HAZY DAY. MESOETA AND RUC40 INDICATE SOME SHORT              
WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR FL ZONES THIS AFTN...AND WITH FRONTAL             
BOUNDARIES ACROSS/NEAR OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WILL CARRY A SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF AFTN TS FROM GILCHRIST TO ST. JOHNS COUNTY SOUTHWARD.                 
BASED ON CURRENT PRECIP...WILL INCLUDE ISOLD MORNING SHRA FOR                   
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST            
(COOLER AS NNE FLOW SETS UP BEHIND TODAYS SECOND FRONT) TO UPPER 80S            
INLAND LOOK GOOD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL REMOVE MENTION MORNING FOG AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS              
THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS SINCE BUOY 41012 HAS BEEN REPORTING                
12KTS GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.                       
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ENYEDI                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NEAR TERM                                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1030 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEAR TERM...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS                
LATE THIS MORNING.  EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID                  
AFTERNOON...AND MODIFIED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.  ALSO...DECREASED            
WINDS BY A FEW MPH BASED ON MORNING TRENDS AND THE 12Z MESO-ETA RUN.            
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS                  
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC STILL EXPECT ANOTHER               
SURGE OF WIND LATER THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 850 MB                 
FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD                
GENERALLY BE TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A              
FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS...           
BUT FEEL ODDS ARE AGAINST IT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR              
LATEST BUOY REPORTS BUT DOWNGRADE THE GALES TO SMALL CRAFT                      
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE COUNTY               
WARNING AREA VERY EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE JUST AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR TWO WERE OCCURRING TO THE                 
NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE               
FRONT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES              
WILL FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY UNDER COLD ADVECTION SO DESPITE                
SUNSHINE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE.                    
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL              
COOLING TONIGHT. THE MERCURY WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S                
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW             
HAMPSHIRE. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR                  
THIS REGION. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE                
LOW TO MID 30S SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY. THE EXCEPTION WILL               
BE THE HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON...CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...AS WELL AS                
BLOCK ISLAND WHERE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED.             
DESPITE DRYER AIRMASS...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TYPICALLY              
PRONE AREAS WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                   
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE DAY TO START OFF SUNNY BUT TURN PARTLY                
CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A MOISTURE                 
STARVED SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW. CAN'T RULE OUT A             
SPRINKLE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME                
BECAUSE EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS NO REAL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...NOT MANY CHANGES             
NEEDED AS CURRENT FORECAST MATCHES UP WELL WITH 00Z MODELS. WEAK                
TROUGH CROSSES AREA WED NIGHT...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IT SHOULD             
ONLY PRODUCE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE            
THEN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED THU INTO FRI WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES               
BOTH DAYS. LEANED TOWARD COLDER ETA MOS FOR MINS WED NIGHT AS ANY               
CLOUDINESS SHOULD NOT EFFECT TEMPERATURES...THEN WENT TOWARD WARMER             
MAV MOS THU GIVEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RECOVERING 850 MB                      
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SAT NIGHT.            
00Z GFS IS SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NEW               
ENGLAND AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ENSEMBLES. FRONT MAY SLOW A BIT            
AS IT MOVES THROUGH DUE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SO CHANCE POPS              
STARTING FRI NIGHT AND LASTING INTO SAT EVENING LOOK REASONABLE. GFS            
SHOWS DEEP UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN AND MON            
WHICH MAY GENERATE SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN            
NH AND EASTERN MA ZONES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS            
PIKE WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TODAY...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE                   
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH A TOUCH OF CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET              
IS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT MANY OF THE                    
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE COD AND                
THE OUTER ISLANDS. CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED                    
TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY            
FOG WILL AFFECT THE DEEP VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES FOR THE REGION. ALTHOUGH GALE                   
WARNINGS ARE MARGINAL ETA HAS SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 25                 
KNOTS FROM 10Z THROUGH 16Z. WITH OCEAN WATER STILL AROUND 60                    
DEGREES THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KNOT WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THIS                 
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT                     
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT AS WINDS SLACKEN.                                     
IN THE LONGER TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT SEAS THU INTO FRI WITH                
LOCAL SEA BREEZES BOTH DAYS. INCREASING S WINDS EXPECTED SAT AHEAD              
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING 25KT GUSTS LATER SAT NIGHT INTO             
SUN AS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
WE SHOULD NOT BREAK ANY RECORDS FOR EITHER THE COLDEST HIGH                     
TEMPERATURES TODAY OR THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. RECORDS             
ARE AS FOLLOWS...                                                               
                RECORD LOW MAX TODAY    RECORD LOW MIN TONIGHT (10/6)           
BOSTON          45 IN 1965              31 IN 1883                              
PROVIDENCE      49 IN 1965              29 IN 1984 AND PREV YEARS               
WORCESTER       42 IN 1965              27 IN 1984                              
HARTFORD        46 IN 1965              24 IN 1984                              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FROST ADVISORY ALL ZONES.                                                  
MA...FREEZING WARNING NW ZONES, FROST ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT               
BOSTON...CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET                                                 
NH...FREEZE WARNING ZONES 011, 015, FROST ADVISORY ZONE 012                     
RI...FROST ADVISORIES ALL ZONES EXCEPT BLOCK ISLAND.                            
MARINE...SCA ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR                                       
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...TLM                                                                 
SHORT TERM...FRANK                                                              
LONG TERM...JWD                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CWA WITHIN NW FLOW IN UPR LEVELS BTWN RIDGE POKING UP IN W                      
CANADA/CONUS AND TROUGH AXIS FROM HUDSON BAY INTO NE CONUS. CLOSEST             
SHORTWAVE OF NOTE IS SKIPPING BY IN NW ONTARIO. BATCH OF MIDDLE                 
LEVEL ALTOCU IS ONLY CONCERN WITH THIS WAVE...AND MOST OF THIS IS               
STAYING OUT OVR LK SUPERIOR TO THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PATCHES OF CI             
STREAMING IN FROM S MANITOBA AND N MN IS ONLY CLOUD COVER TO IMPACT             
CWA TODAY. WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.                                        
CHILLY START ACROSS CWA IS IMPEDING MIXING TO THIS POINT DESPITE                
INCREASING PRES GRADIANT AND STRONG WINDS JUST OFF SFC. ETA/RUC IN              
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPEED MAX OBSERVED ON KINL SOUNDING (45KT AT             
950MB/35KT AT 900MB) SLIPPING OVR CWA/LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN AS                  
TROUGH APPROACHES FM NW. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME THOUGH AND            
MIXING HEIGHTS ONLY PROGGED FROM 950MB TO PERHAPS 900MB. CURRENT                
WIND GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30            
MPH BY EARLY AFTN...BOOSTED BY AN INCREASINLY TIGHT PRESSURE                    
GRADIANT. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH WITH THE INCREASING              
MIXING HEIGHT AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH 06Z ETA BUFKIT OUTPUT USING             
THE MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS               
WIND MAX SHIFTS E AND PRESSURE GRADIANT RELAXES BY EARLY EVENING.               
DESPITE THE CHILLY START THINK MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROMOTE A                
LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS TODAY (AS HIGH AS 35-40 DEGREES) AND               
BASED ON EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES INTO             
LWR 60S.                                                                        
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED/PUBLISHED. A MINOR UPDATE TO TEXT ZFPMQT OUT              
SHORTLY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING WEST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1000 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
ALREADY ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO REMOVE FOG MENTIONA DN              
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HEADLINE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS NOT             
CHANGED AND SHOULD HOLD FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG AND HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS FOR              
THE REST OF THE DAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL BE EAST OF THE            
REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE             
NORTHWEST. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL COME AROUND TO NORTHEAST AS            
THE HIGH BUILDS IN. OTHER THAN CLEANING UP WORDING DO NOT INTENT ON             
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WED)...                                                     
BASED ON 07Z SFC OBSERVATIONS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD ADVECTION            
EXTENDS FROM THE DELMARVA...TO JUST SOUTH OF RICHMOND...TO SOMEWHERE            
IN THE EXTREME NW PIEDMONT.  AHEAD OF THAT THE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY            
WEAK...WITH QUITE A BIT OF DENSE FOG NOTED ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF            
THE ILM CWA.                                                                    
WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE BETTER MIXING CONDITIONS...SO               
WILL POST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MY INLAND COUNTIES. UNLIKE THE               
LAST FEW DAYS...VIS SHOULD COME UP QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE JUST             
FROM POST FRONTAL MIXING...IF NOT FROM HEATING.                                 
CAA IS RATHER MODEST TODAY...AND SUNSHINE WILL BE PLENTIFUL.  LOW               
LEVEL THICKNESS PATTERN AND H8 TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS NEATLY INTO            
THE 80S...BUT WILL TEMPER THAT SOMEWHAT AND GO IN LINE WITH MAV                 
NUMBERS.                                                                        
EXPECT TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WED...AS SOME                  
SHEARED OUT UPPER VORT ENERGY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.               
MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP.  EXPECT               
CONDITIONS TO CLEAR OUT QUITE NICELY BY WED AFTERNOON ONCE THE UPPER            
TROF AXIS PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.                                              
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (WED NIGHT THROUGH MON)...                                            
SURFACE HIGH HOLDS ON AS H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SW.               
THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST MORNING...WITH LOWS AROUND 50                    
INLAND...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE CLIMO BY SAT.              
MOISTURE IS SERIOUSLY LACKING...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS...EVEN            
WITH SAT OR SUN FROPA.  WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                         
CONDITIONS...AND KNOCK MON TEMPS BACK A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
MARINE...                                                                       
ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE NE SURGE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. HAVE                   
CONTINUED GOING 4-6 KT HIGHER IN THE GRIDS THAN GFS/ETA BLEND WOULD             
SUGGEST GIVEN THE DEGREE OF CAA OVER STILL QUITE WARM NEARSHORE                 
WATERS. HAVE ALSO BUILT SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE              
INDICATES. THE MODERATE NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE               
FINALLY WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE CANADIAN HIGH               
SETTLES OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. WAVEWATCH INDICATES A 3 FT            
EASTERLY SWELL DEVELOPING ABOUT THE SAME TIME WHICH KEEPS SEAS                  
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WINDS WOULD INDICATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO             
SATURDAY.                                                                       
MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA COULD BE MET WITH SEAS AWAY               
FROM SHORE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR               
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ETA/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE EVEN               
WITH SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET OF VERTICAL MIXING...25 KT GUSTS SHOULD              
NOT OCCUR WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE. WILL HOLD OFF ADVERTISING SCA               
CONDITIONS JUST YET.                                                            
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHALLOW MOISTURE COUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EQUALS                 
WIDESPREAD FOG/MIST AROUND THE AREA. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS             
MOISTURE IS LITERALLY ONLY ONE OR TWO HUNDRED FEET THICK WITH                   
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXCEEDING 15 DEG C AT 1000 FT AGL. THIS DRY AIR            
WILL ALLOW THE FOG TO BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AS IT                
MIXES DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE. ONLY OTHER AVIATION              
WEATHER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF 3000-4000 FT CIGS DEVELOPING              
AROUND SUNSET AS THE NE FLOW COLLECTS MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. ETA               
SHOWS THIS POSSIBILITY THE STRONGEST BUT IS SUPPORTED ONLY WEAKLY BY            
THE GFS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...31                                                        
AVIATION (UPDATE)...99                                                          
MARINE (UPDATE)...99                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
604 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
FOG HAS THICKENED NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH ATOKA...DURANT...WICHITA            
FALLS...VERNON...AND CHILDRESS REPORTING LESS THAN 1/4 MILE                     
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. FOG APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOIST            
GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN THAT COINCIDES WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND            
LIGHTEST WINDS DUE TO SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY COLD                
FRONT. THE FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FOG BANK...AND               
WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR              
FOR ONLY ANOTHER 1 OR 2 HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE.                        
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO              
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LIFT ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE              
LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO FORECAST INTENSE LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE               
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE 18-21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE JUST LOW                
POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN                
OKLAHOMA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE POP UPDATES LATER.                  
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM RED RIVER COUNTIES.                        
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM.                                           
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
315 AM CDT TUE OCT  5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING WHERE THE             
GROUND IS STILL MOIST FROM YESTERDAY'S RAIN WITH LIGHT WIND                     
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE                
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE LOWEST                    
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MOISTURE IS             
GREATEST. ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY            
AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NEW MEXICO. THE RUC               
APPEARS TO INITIALIZE THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVE THE BEST WITH THE               
NOSE OF THE UPPER JET REACHING THE AREA BY 18Z. CURRENTLY HAVE                  
JUST LOW POPS ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN                    
OKLAHOMA TODAY...BUT IF THE RUC IS CORRECT...WE MAY NEED TO RAISE               
POPS AND LOWER MAX TEMPS TODAY ACCORDINGLY.                                     
OTHERWISE...TSRA SHOULD AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS             
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDUCES A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE THE             
LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE            
INCLUDED THIS IN THE GRIDS. TSRA MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE THROUGH                 
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF TSRA ARE            
EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.              
THE MODEL TREND HAS SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH              
TIME...SUGGESTING AT LEAST QPF MAY LOWER WITH TIME. BY THIS                     
WEEKEND...A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH MARKING THE WESTERN EDGE OF            
THE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE AREA HELPING TO                
SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  76  57  69  61 /  10  60  60  50                              
HOBART OK         73  59  67  62 /  30  80  60  50                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  59  68  63 /  30  80  60  50                              
GAGE OK           73  57  67  56 /  30  80  60  50                              
PONCA CITY OK     76  54  70  60 /  10  50  60  50                              
DURANT OK         78  56  74  61 /  10  50  60  50                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
935 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC /TODAY/...ALTHOUGH FOG WAS MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MRNG                    
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL MRNGS...FOG WAS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP SO              
IT HAS BURNED OFF MUCH QUICKER. PER ASOS VSBYS AND FOG PRODUCT HAVE             
SEEN MUCH OF AREA RISE ABV DENSE FOG CRITERIA. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED            
DENSE FOG ADVY AND WILL ISSUE UPDATED PRODUCTS AS NEEDED. ISOLD                 
AREAS MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH FOG ARND 1/4 SM...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO             
WARRANT KEEPING OUT THE ADVY AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE AOA 1 SM BY 11             
AM.                                                                             
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING ZFP OTHER THAN COSMETIC FOR              
AFTN WORDING. MODIFIED KCHS SOUNDING AND OTHER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS             
INDICATE RATHER STABLE AIR AND RUC SHOWS SLIGHT H5 RIDGING AHEAD OF             
FNTL BNDRY OUT WEST THUS THE IDEA OF SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS TDA              
LOOKS GOOD. WILL ALSO RUN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY AS ONLY CLOUD COVER                 
LINGERING PAST FOG WILL BE UPR LVL CIRRUS AND THIS SHOULD THIN OUT              
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS LOOK GOOD AS WEAK SEABREEZE LOOKS TO               
FORM ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WITH L/V WINDS INLAND DUE TO LACK            
OF ANY PRES GRAD FORCING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES                 
ACCORDING TO LATEST COASTAL/OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS. SEAS RUNNING                 
AROUND 2 FEET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DEPTH OF FOG IS RATHER SHALLOW AND EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF            
SHORTLY. LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                
WITH ONLY SCATTERED CIRRUS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC/AUSTIN                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1028 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WAS OVER SE TX THIS MORNING.  THE 12Z             
SOUNDINGS INDICATED LI/S OF ONLY AROUND 0 TO -1 (AT LCH AND SHV).  THE          
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT HAD               
PROVIDED DRIER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND HAD PUSHED THE          
MORE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH (THE LI AT CRP WAS -5).  IN THE UPPER            
LEVELS AN ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z DATA SHOWED A BIT OF CONFLUENT FLOW AT            
200 AND 300 MB.  THERE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE FLOW AT          
500 MB.  THE ETA...GFS...AND RUC ALL INDICATE THAT THE MAIN PORTION             
WILL STAY WEST OF SE TX TODAY.                                                  
FORECAST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY INCLUDE CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES BUT            
POPS REMAIN A DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  MID AND HIGH LEVEL            
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS           
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO          
THE 80S TODAY.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK...THOUGH SOME            
CLEARING AT THE COAST MAY HELP LOCATIONS BETWEEN MATAGORDA BAY AND              
FREEPORT SEE A BIT MORE WARMING.  THERE WAS ALSO SOME CLEARING COMING           
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE.  THIS MAY WELL BE THE             
WEAK COLD FRONT.                                                                
WITH SOME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE            
PICTURE.  THE SOUNDINGS DID NOT INDICATE MUCH OF A CAP OVERHEAD.                
HOWEVER...WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND THE CONFLUENT FLOW                
ALOFT...THINK THAT IT WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST OVER MOST OF SE TX.             
AS THE ENTIRE CONFLUENT AREA WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH IN THE WEST WAS APPROACHING...SCATTERED POPS ARE PROBABLY BEST           
IN THE WEST.  WILL ADJUST THE POPS AND WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.                     
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                            
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 67 81 68 79 / 30 30 50 40 70                           
HOUSTON (IAH)         85 68 84 70 80 / 20 30 50 40 70                           
GALVESTON (GLS)       85 75 84 75 82 / 20 30 50 40 70                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1010 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL AREAS OF CONV ARE CLUSTERED AROUND THE BRO                
CWA.  THE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH ARE MOVING TO THE W-WNW AT                
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE AREA OVER WEBB COUNTY MOVING ROUGHLY               
EASTWARDS AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWS IMPRESSIVE               
CONV OVER THE SW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED             
IN THE AREA.  RUC AND ETA GUIDANCE ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
KEEPING THE BEST CONV COVERAGE TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE SURFACE WAVE               
WITH THE BEST MODEL QPF VALUES EDGING INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN             
PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA LATER TODAY.  THE CONV FROM THE WEST WILL               
ALSO LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY A 5H SHORT WAVE LOCATED OVER THE BIG BEND            
AREA.  WITH DEEP SOUTH TX SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES              
SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA            
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD             
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH 60 TO 80 PERCENT VALUES INDICATED              
THROUGH THURS.  THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR               
THE REGION.  CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM THE WGRFC INDICATES THAT SOIL                
MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND THE REGION ARE LOW ATTM AND THE CURRENT                  
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT CLOSE TO EXCEEDING THE FFG.  SO BELIEVE THAT             
THE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL BE LATER                
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOIL MOISTURE             
LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED.  HOWEVER...WILL REEXAMINE THE                     
SITUATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO DECIDE IF AN FFA MAY BE REQUIRED              
THEN.  WILL INCREASE CONV CHCS FOR THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON A            
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE BRO GRID PACKAGE LOOKS OK.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 4             
FEET. CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE WAVES ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD                
TOWARD THE MARINE ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR NEXT UPDATE. SHORT              
TERM WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK GOOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AT 8AM BUOY020 REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS AND SEAS             
4 FEET. CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE TODAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COUPLE WAVES ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD            
TOWARD THE MARINE ZONES. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR NEXT UPDATE. SHORT              
TERM WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK GOOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...64                                                            
MESO...CAMPBELL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
230 PM MDT TUE OCT 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRN CO/4 CORNERS REGION WITH WV               
IMAGERY AND AREA RADARS SHOWING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO/NRN NM.  THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NM APPEAR TO              
BE DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET/LEADING EDGE OF VORT                
FEATURE IN BASE OF TROF...WHILE WRN CO CONVECTION AIDED BY COLD                 
CORE ALOFT.  LAPSE RATES IN TROF AXIS ACROSS WRN CO ARE QUITE                   
STEEP...AROUND 7.5-8C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO RATHER INTENSE                       
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS AREA.  HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL            
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME              
PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR THE MTS AS WET             
BULB ZEROS QUITE LOW. ESTIMATED SNOW LEVEL FROM SPOTTER REPORTS IN              
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WOULD PUT IT AROUND 10KFT.                           
AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AREA TONIGHT...AND NOSE OF              
ASSOC UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EXPECT               
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA IN THE EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE             
OVERNIGHT. AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN CO                
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH PRECIP PROBABLY WANING SOME AFTER 09Z AS               
UPPER LVL JET MOVES NORTHEAST INTO WRN KANSAS. ONCE AGAIN...MODEL               
QPFS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH GFS LOOKING WAY OVERDONE (PROBABLY             
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEED BACK)...AND ETA LOOKING TOO DRY ACROSS           
SE PLAINS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS ALL OF                 
EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS FOR TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION EVENT SHOULD BE             
PRETTY WIDESPREAD. FOLLOWED THE RUC MORE CLOSELY FOR QPF ON THE                 
PLAINS...WITH HEAVIEST TOTALS PROBABLY REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND               
EAST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL SOME RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS (.25-.50)                 
ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS.   AS FOR SNOW TOTALS IN WRN MOUNTAINS HAVE            
PUT IN UP TO 3 INCHES FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  SNOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT            
MAY DROP TO AROUND 900 FEET.                                                    
WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF SLOWING LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH MORE               
ENERGY STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS REGION.   STILL                  
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF                     
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE UPPER TROF                 
PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.  COOLED OF MAXT GRIDS ACROSS THE PLAINS A FEW           
DEGREES.  OTHERWISE...CHANGES WERE MINIMAL.                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                               
UPPER LOW WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON...WITH DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL                
BE ANY PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  GFS WANTS TO HOLD ONTO TO            
A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ETA IS DRY.                   
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY...AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THIS UNTIL              
ABLE TO PROVE OTHERWISE.  ADJACENT FORECAST OFFICES ARE DRY...SO I AM           
KEEPING WITH CONSENSUS.  CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE            
WEEKEND...TOO...WITH PRECIP NOT ENTERING THE PICTURE AGAIN                      
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH AN APPROACHING LARGE                      
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LIKELY SPREADING SOME ENERGY BACK                      
INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  THE CATCH IS...THE BIG UPPER                       
LEVEL SYSTEM PLUNGES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US INITIALLY ON                      
SUNDAY...BUT THEN PUTS ON THE BRAKES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                   
AND ARIZONA...OR EVEN RETROGRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS                        
MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST.  FOR NOW...WILL HOLD POPS                          
BACK OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND NOT LET THEM SPREAD                       
ANY FARTHER EAST...UNTIL THE TRUE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
BECOMES CLEAR.  THIS IS IN LIGHT OF RECENT MEDIUM RANGE RUNS                    
THAT HAVE OFFERED A NUMBER OF POSSIBLE TRACKS FOR THIS LARGE                    
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. LW                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co