AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1244 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING AT SBN AND LESSER SO AT FWA. THE            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND TURNS TO THE WEST               
THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO CONDITIONS            
WORSEN WHENEVER A SNOW SHOWER PASSES OVER SBN. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO             
MAY MAKE IT TO FWA BEFORE THE WIND TURNS TO THE WEST THIS EVENING               
BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO MENTION. THEN LATER              
TONIGHT SOME MORE VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SBN. ALSO AT BOTH SBN               
AND FWA THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON TONIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY...EAST/WEST BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH                  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A             
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH               
AND WEAKEN BY 12Z. MEANWHILE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE                      
REORGANIZING ONCE AGAIN ON 340 DEGREE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN              
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL                    
SHORTWAVE. 00Z NAM AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA 925MB OMEGA                  
FIELDS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF BANDS                 
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT MULTIPLE            
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST               
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WORKSTATION ETA SUGGESTING                
DOMINANT SHORE PARALLEL BAND MAY FORM FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS                
FLOW VEERS TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN              
BY DAWN AND STRONG COOLING OVER THE LAND IN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY                  
RESULT IN LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL AID LOW LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY            
WITH KBIV AND KMKG HAVING OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. WILL GO WITH                 
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AND                   
BECOMES MORE SHEARED AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS.            
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.            
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WSW TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE                 
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. WAA ALOFT AND              
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SEVERELY LIMIT                
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN THE EVENING OF 200J/KG             
DROP TO ALMOST NIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WAA ALOFT. 13KM FSL                      
EXPERIMENTAL RUC KEEPS MEASURABLE QPF NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT                
FROM KAZO NORTH WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO DEPART AND LOW               
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SW FLOW IS FAVORED. WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING               
POPS ALL TOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS               
OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES. APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LINGERING              
LAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO GOING.              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
WK CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACRS THE GRTLKS SAT AND THEN STALL OUT OVER               
CWA SAT NGT AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85             
TEMPS A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SAT, BUT, WITH WK FRONT MOVG                 
THROUGH LEFT IN A LOW POP OVER SWRN MI WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT              
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHSN. SRN                  
STREAM LOW MOVG EAST OUT OF PLAINS ON SAT NGT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE               
ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY. WITH GULF OPENING UP THIS SRN STREAM                  
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG ISENT LIFT DVLPG                
NORTH OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN              
QUESTION IS TIMING THE PRECIP AS GFS IW QUICKER TO MOVE IT IN THAN              
NAM. WENT WITH COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER               
THAN OUR PREVIOUS FCST BUT WELL COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.             
WITH GFS NOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF LOW AND                   
SIMILAR TO NAM EXTENDED THE CHC OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SRN                  
PORTION OF CWA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN             
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT, SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE TRANSITION FROM RN TO             
SN IF IT DOES OCCUR, SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF FCST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP             
MAY LINGER MON AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z GFS GENERALLY               
SUPPORTS WX GRIDS IN LATER PERIODS OF FCST WITH ANOTHER WK SHRTWV               
FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW AND                
THEN DRY WX TUE-THU AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY ESE FM NRN PLAINS                 
ACROSS THE GRTLKS. LEANED TOWARD COOLEST MOS TEMPS SAT AS ARCTIC                
AIRMASS LIKELY A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN FCST BY MODELS AND              
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING ON ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACRS SRN PORTION             
OF CWA LOOKING OVERDONE. UP TO 10F DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS              
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH COMPROMISE AND LOWERED TEMPS A            
FEW DEGS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SFC LOW BY             
GFS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                          
LONG TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
625 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND THE ONGOING LAKE             
EFFECT SNOW. BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE PAST FEW HOURS             
AS 340 DEGREE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A                  
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. 06Z NAM            
925MB OMEGA ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO KEEP BANDING STATUS QUO THROUGH               
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO QUICKLY BACK               
AND DISRUPT FETCH. ALSO EXPECT BANDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK APART INTO A             
MORE DISORGANIZED CELLULAR STRUCTURE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING            
UNDER THE NOW STRONGER MID FEBRUARY SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR                
TEMPO IFR AT KSBN THROUGH THE MORNING. KFWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW                
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL WITH LAKE BANDS PENETRATING              
WELL INLAND. LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS                  
SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY...EAST/WEST BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH                  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A             
SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH               
AND WEAKEN BY 12Z. MEANWHILE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE                      
REORGANIZING ONCE AGAIN ON 340 DEGREE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN              
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL                    
SHORTWAVE. 00Z NAM AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA 925MB OMEGA                  
FIELDS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF BANDS                 
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT MULTIPLE            
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST               
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WORKSTATION ETA SUGGESTING                
DOMINANT SHORE PARALLEL BAND MAY FORM FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS                
FLOW VEERS TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN              
BY DAWN AND STRONG COOLING OVER THE LAND IN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY                  
RESULT IN LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL AID LOW LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY            
WITH KBIV AND KMKG HAVING OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. WILL GO WITH                 
ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AND                   
BECOMES MORE SHEARED AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS.            
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.            
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WSW TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE                 
TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. WAA ALOFT AND              
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SEVERELY LIMIT                
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN THE EVENING OF 200J/KG             
DROP TO ALMOST NIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WAA ALOFT. 13KM FSL                      
EXPERIMENTAL RUC KEEPS MEASURABLE QPF NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT                
FROM KAZO NORTH WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO DEPART AND LOW               
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SW FLOW IS FAVORED. WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING               
POPS ALL TOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS               
OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES. APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LINGERING              
LAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO GOING.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                    
WK CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACRS THE GRTLKS SAT AND THEN STALL OUT OVER               
CWA SAT NGT AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85             
TEMPS A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SAT, BUT, WITH WK FRONT MOVG                 
THROUGH LEFT IN A LOW POP OVER SWRN MI WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT              
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHSN. SRN                  
STREAM LOW MOVG EAST OUT OF PLAINS ON SAT NGT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE               
ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY. WITH GULF OPENING UP THIS SRN STREAM                  
SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG ISENT LIFT DVLPG                
NORTH OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN              
QUESTION IS TIMING THE PRECIP AS GFS IW QUICKER TO MOVE IT IN THAN              
NAM. WENT WITH COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER               
THAN OUR PREVIOUS FCST BUT WELL COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS.             
WITH GFS NOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF LOW AND                   
SIMILAR TO NAM EXTENDED THE CHC OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SRN                  
PORTION OF CWA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN             
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT, SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE TRANSITION FROM RN TO             
SN IF IT DOES OCCUR, SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF FCST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP             
MAY LINGER MON AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z GFS GENERALLY               
SUPPORTS WX GRIDS IN LATER PERIODS OF FCST WITH ANOTHER WK SHRTWV               
FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW AND                
THEN DRY WX TUE-THU AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY ESE FM NRN PLAINS                 
ACROSS THE GRTLKS. LEANED TOWARD COOLEST MOS TEMPS SAT AS ARCTIC                
AIRMASS LIKELY A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN FCST BY MODELS AND              
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING ON ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACRS SRN PORTION             
OF CWA LOOKING OVERDONE. UP TO 10F DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS              
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH COMPROMISE AND LOWERED TEMPS A            
FEW DEGS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SFC LOW BY             
GFS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                 
LONG TERM...TAYLOR                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 PM MST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGES ARE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TIMING THE           
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK.                                                 
TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.             
FIRST CHALLENGE IS TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR CERTAIN...AND            
RAIN IS FALLING IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE                 
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE A SEEMINGLY GOOD HANDLE ON             
THE ATMOSPHERE RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE STINGY WITH THE                
PRECIPITATION. THE MOS PRODUCTS FOR THIS FORECAST LOWERED THE CHANCE            
OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE                
OTHER HAND...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT STEADY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE              
AND SATURATED SOUNDINGS AROUND THE 295 K LEVEL OVERNIGHT. THE                   
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCE POPS RUNNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT.                
WOULD LIKE TO STEER AWAY FROM 50 PERCENT...BEING A FIRST PERIOD NON             
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH               
AND THE PRESENCE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...WILL            
LEAN TOWARD LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...CENTERED AROUND OAKLEY               
AND HILL CITY...WHERE THE 18Z NAM DOES PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL HAVE 30             
TO 40 POPS ELSEWHERE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY            
DRIZZLE EVEN IF THEY DO NOT SEE RAIN.                                           
SECOND PROBLEM THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.            
A TROF AXIS WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT BROUGHT VERY             
LOW DEWPOINTS IN...AND THESE ARE STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.                 
LATEST RUC MAINTAINS DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF                
HIGHWAY 36 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOIL TEMP OF 32.7 HERE AT GOODLAND            
ALSO NOT GOING TO HELP MUCH WITH GROUND HEAT FLUX. FELT STRONGLY                
ENOUGH TO PLACE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG I-70 IN THE               
EVENING...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST WILL              
COME OUT SAYING RAIN FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE MORE             
DRIZZLE THAN RAIN.                                                              
SATURDAY...OFFERS ITS OWN CHALLENGES. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS DOWN            
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE EAST.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE            
IN THE MORNING TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD             
BE PREVALENT EARLY...BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY              
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING...AND               
THIS COULD BE ITS MAINTENANCE OF A STRONGER JET STREAK TOPPING THE              
MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MOS PRODUCTS VERY SIMILAR ON                             
TEMPERATURES...SO HARD TO ARGUE A WHOLE LOT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN            
OVER THE NORTHEAST ALL DAY...THOUGH...SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS A FEW                
DEGREES THERE...AND GO WITH THE MOS IN THE WEST. SOMEWHERE                      
IN BETWEEN...THE TIMING OF THE DRY PUNCH COULD MAKE A 10 DEGREE                 
DIFFERENCE.                                                                     
THE APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL ALSO BRING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE                
RATES...AND PREVIOUS SHIFTS AS WELL AS SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE                 
CONSIDERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THAT                
CHANCE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE                
OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP           
MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO             
BREAK THE CAP. NOT LOOKING TOO LIKELY FROM THE SOUNDINGS...SO WILL              
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THE EAST...MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED            
UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH STRATUS AND FOG AT SURFACE...AND DO              
NOT SEE ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS              
AFTER DARK WHEN THE JET KICKS OUT...MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN             
OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. A WEST WIND WILL EVENTUALLY               
CLEAR THINGS OUT...THOUGH...AND EXPECT A WARM DRY DAY ON SUNDAY.                
IN THE EXTENDED...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEY             
PAINT A WINTRY...FOGGY...SNOWY PICTURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.             
TIMING HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY...BRINGING IN THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW             
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.              
BECAUSE THE STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR                
GULF MOISTURE TO GET INVOLVED LATE IN THE EVENT. THE GFS AND DGEX               
INDICATE SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE              
THE COLD DOME WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER                  
KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED              
ABOUT THE AMOUNTS THOUGH. STORM TRACK AND TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE             
SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1142 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.NEAR TERM...                                                                   
SNOW SHOWERS THAT TRAVELED ACROSS THE FA EARLIER ARE NOW                        
CONTAINED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS SLOWLY            
EAST. BUFKIT SHWG MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES AND WITH DOWNSLOPE                    
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND MAX TEMPS IN MOST ZNS                 
TO REFLECT THIS AS CAA IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE.                                     
.MARINE...                                                                      
HAVE PUT UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO                 
PLYMOUTH...CAPE COD BAY AS WELL AS NANTUCKET AND VINEYARD SOUNDS.               
EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP BY EARLY TONIGHT...SO WITHIN WINDOW TO HOIST            
THEM. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                              
&&                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR             
THE WEEKEND AND SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
.MESO 1 609 AM...SNOW HAS DESCENDED TO THE SFC UNDER SOME OF THE                
RETURN WITH 21/2-3 MI AT BED ~ 6AM.  NOWCAST CONTS POSTED AS IS.                
CONTD COOLING CLOUD LAYER MWN TO KBOX AXIS WITH ECHOS REDEVELOPING IN           
THAT AXIS.  THIS COULD BE A PBLM FOR PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE JUST           
N AND W OF BOS?  ALSO NOTICED A WSHIFT TO NNE AT IOS SUGGESTING                 
INCREASING L;OW LVL CNV ALONG THE NH NE MASS COAST TONTG TO FAVOR               
THE ONGOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS DEVELOPING SHORTLY.                     
OTRW BLO NO CHG FM 427AM.                                                       
.TODAY...MERGED 00Z/18 GFS/NAM/UKMET/LOCAL OFFICE ETA10/SUSBMMN5                
QPFS. GIVES 1-3" VCNTY GLOUCESTER-WELLFLEET AXIS. SCT .5" ELSEWHERE             
MASS AND RI IN LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.                                         
CONFIDENCE AVG.                                                                 
WE SAW THE DRIER 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z BTV ETA WAS GENERALLY OFFSHORE             
AS WAS THE 06Z RUC.                                                             
OTRW VAR CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE IN CT AND ETA MOS              
TEMPS.                                                                          
ALL THE ABV ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD CORE AND MOIST UNSTABLE               
LAPSE RATES.  AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTN...THIS SHOULD                
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SW-. ADDITIONALLY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE OCEAN             
CONTRIBUTION WITH NNE BUOY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.              
.TONIGHT...HIGHLY UNSTABLE NNW FLOW FOR THE OUTER CAPE. SOME ACCUM              
LIKELY OUT THERE TONIGHT TOO. DAY SHIFT CAN ENHANCE AS EVIDENCE FOR             
FURTHER ACCUM DEVELOPS.                                                         
.SATURDAY...DRY BUT COLD WITH LATE DAY WAA CLOUDINESS.  MOS                     
GUIDANCE REASONABLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION                
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH             
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND THE GFS LIGHTS UP ITS 850 MB              
OMEGA TO OUR WEST WHICH IS OFTEN AN INDICATION. LOOKED UP THE WINDEX            
CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND THE CRITERIA IS MET. HOWEVER...DO NOT             
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY BECAUSE THE LOW                
LEVELS WILL BE DRYER.                                                           
SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY COLD DAY DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WITH 850               
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -14 AND -18C...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE               
20S AND WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SEEMS LIKE MANY TIMES             
THAT THE 2ND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE GET IS OFTEN A BIT COLDER THAN               
THE MODELS DEPICT.                                                              
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALL THE MODELS             
TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS            
WILL INDUCE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. THERE             
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ETA BEING THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS               
BEING THE FASTEST. PREFER THE COMPROMISE OF THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH            
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE             
EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. DESPITE THERE REALLY NOT               
BEING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM...BRINGING WARM AIR OVER AN ARCTIC DOME             
WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID                     
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DEEP LIFT FOR               
SNOW GROWTH LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH                   
SHALLOW LIFT AROUND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET            
AND VERY LIGHT SNOW LEFT BEHIND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL               
PROBABLY HAVE BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS                
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE           
BULK OF THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW WHEN THE DEEP LIFT IS IN              
PLACE.                                                                          
AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL QUICKLY                
WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW WILL TAKE OVER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND             
NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS SECONDARY LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF               
LONG ISLAND...ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT               
WANT TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF US. HOWEVER...              
THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. FOR NOW...IT              
JUST LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE                
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON                
THE FRONT END (WARM ADVECTION SIDE) WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
APPEARS LIKELY.                                                                 
OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY AS             
THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND            
INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR                  
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER             
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT             
NOW THE MODELS KEEP OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY WHICH WOULD TAKE              
THE STORM OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. THAT IS 7 DAYS OUT THOUGH AND TOO             
EARLY TO SAY THAT FOR SURE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES               
BAF-PVD-ACK LINE NEWD. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS                  
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA/MHT.  THEN BECOMING VFR DURING TONIGHT ALL EXCPT               
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS HOLDING ACK/HYA DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD CVR.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...SCA FOR 254 AND 255 PVC-ACK-MTK OUTER WATERS.                           
TONIGHT...SCA LIKELY REQUIRED MOST OTHER WATERS EXCEPT NOT ENOUGH               
TIME FOR CRITIERA TO BE MET AT BOS HARB AND NARR BAY.                           
IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED             
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS AND             
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW                    
ENGLAND. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. FOR NOW              
WILL GO WITH STRONG SCA BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT A              
MARGINAL GALE.                                                                  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON               
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER MID ATLANTIC AND                 
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO             
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E MA COASTAL                
WATERS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER...BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS           
IS FOR SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED AFTER IT PASSES SOUTHERN            
NEW ENGLAND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NEAR TERM...CF                                                                  
SHORT TERM...EVT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..MESO UPDATE..                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
610 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR             
THE WEEKEND AND SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE             
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
.MESO 1 609 AM...SNOW HAS DESCENDED TO THE SFC UNDER SOME OF THE                
RETURN WITH 21/2-3 MI AT BED ~ 6AM.  NOWCAST CONTS POSTED AS IS.                
CONTD COOLING CLOUD LAYER MWN TO KBOX AXIS WITH ECHOS REDEVELOPING IN           
THAT AXIS.  THIS COULD BE A PBLM FOR PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE JUST           
N AND W OF BOS?  ALSO NOTICED A WSHIFT TO NNE AT IOS SUGGESTING                 
INCREASING L;OW LVL CNV ALONG THE NH NE MASS COAST TONTG TO FAVOR               
THE ONGOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS DEVELOPING SHORTLY.                     
OTRW BLO NO CHG FM 427AM.                                                       
.TODAY...MERGED 00Z/18 GFS/NAM/UKMET/LOCAL OFFICE ETA10/SUSBMMN5                
QPFS. GIVES 1-3" VCNTY GLOUCESTER-WELLFLEET AXIS. SCT .5" ELSEWHERE             
MASS AND RI IN LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.                                         
CONFIDENCE AVG.                                                                 
WE SAW THE DRIER 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z BTV ETA WAS GENERALLY OFFSHORE             
AS WAS THE 06Z RUC.                                                             
OTRW VAR CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE IN CT AND ETA MOS              
TEMPS.                                                                          
ALL THE ABV ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD CORE AND MOIST UNSTABLE               
LAPSE RATES.  AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTN...THIS SHOULD                
TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SW-. ADDITIONALLY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE OCEAN             
CONTRIBUTION WITH NNE BUOY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING.              
.TONIGHT...HIGHLY UNSTABLE NNW FLOW FOR THE OUTER CAPE. SOME ACCUM              
LIKELY OUT THERE TONIGHT TOO. DAY SHIFT CAN ENHANCE AS EVIDENCE FOR             
FURTHER ACCUM DEVELOPS.                                                         
.SATURDAY...DRY BUT COLD WITH LATE DAY WAA CLOUDINESS.  MOS                     
GUIDANCE REASONABLE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION                
SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH             
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND THE GFS LIGHTS UP ITS 850 MB              
OMEGA TO OUR WEST WHICH IS OFTEN AN INDICATION. LOOKED UP THE WINDEX            
CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND THE CRITERIA IS MET. HOWEVER...DO NOT             
EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY BECAUSE THE LOW                
LEVELS WILL BE DRYER.                                                           
SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY COLD DAY DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WITH 850               
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -14 AND -18C...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE               
20S AND WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SEEMS LIKE MANY TIMES             
THAT THE 2ND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE GET IS OFTEN A BIT COLDER THAN               
THE MODELS DEPICT.                                                              
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALL THE MODELS             
TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS            
WILL INDUCE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. THERE             
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ETA BEING THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS               
BEING THE FASTEST. PREFER THE COMPROMISE OF THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH            
WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE             
EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. DESPITE THERE REALLY NOT               
BEING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM...BRINGING WARM AIR OVER AN ARCTIC DOME             
WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID                     
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DEEP LIFT FOR               
SNOW GROWTH LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH                   
SHALLOW LIFT AROUND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET            
AND VERY LIGHT SNOW LEFT BEHIND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL               
PROBABLY HAVE BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS                
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE           
BULK OF THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW WHEN THE DEEP LIFT IS IN              
PLACE.                                                                          
AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL QUICKLY                
WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW WILL TAKE OVER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND             
NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS SECONDARY LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF               
LONG ISLAND...ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT               
WANT TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF US. HOWEVER...              
THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. FOR NOW...IT              
JUST LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE                
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON                
THE FRONT END (WARM ADVECTION SIDE) WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL            
APPEARS LIKELY.                                                                 
OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY AS             
THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND            
INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR                  
SHOULD HOLD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER             
STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT             
NOW THE MODELS KEEP OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY WHICH WOULD TAKE              
THE STORM OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. THAT IS 7 DAYS OUT THOUGH AND TOO             
EARLY TO SAY THAT FOR SURE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES               
BAF-PVD-ACK LINE NEWD. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS                  
POSSIBLE BOS/HYA/MHT.  THEN BECOMING VFR DURING TONIGHT ALL EXCPT               
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS HOLDING ACK/HYA DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD CVR.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
TODAY...SCA FOR 254 AND 255 PVC-ACK-MTK OUTER WATERS.                           
TONIGHT...SCA LIKELY REQUIRED MOST OTHER WATERS EXCEPT NOT ENOUGH               
TIME FOR CRITIERA TO BE MET AT BOS HARB AND NARR BAY.                           
IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED             
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS AND             
SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW                    
ENGLAND. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. FOR NOW              
WILL GO WITH STRONG SCA BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT A              
MARGINAL GALE.                                                                  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON               
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER MID ATLANTIC AND                 
TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO             
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E MA COASTAL                
WATERS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER...BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS           
IS FOR SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED AFTER IT PASSES SOUTHERN            
NEW ENGLAND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237 254-255 TODAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                               
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LES TRENDS.                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV HAD                   
SLIPPED SE INTO NRN LWR MI. TRAILING AREA OF 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT               
SUPPORTED AN AREA OF -SN OVER N AND CNTRL WI. AT THE SFC...A TROF               
MOVING FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI. 950 CONV ALONG WITH TEMPS            
TO AROUND -20C AROUND H8 INVERSION...PER 23Z TAMDAR SNDG...ALONG                
WITH MOIST 850-700 LYR PROVIDED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES INTO               
THE KEWEENAW. SO FAR...ONLY INTERMITTENT HEAVIER SHSN WERE OBSERVED             
BUT KCMX WINDS HAVE ALSO REMAINED SW. IR IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS                 
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LES BANDS TO MOVE ONSHORE.                                
EXPECT OCNLY HEAVY SHSN TO CONTINUE OVER NW UPR MI TIL WINDS VEER NW            
FROM 06Z-09Z AND BEST 950 CONV SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TO 320-300            
LATE SHOULD ALSO BRING AT A FEW INCHES TO ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON              
AND PORTION OF GOGEBIC COUNTY NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTS. LES SHOULD                
DIMINISH LATE WITH INCREASING QDIV/SUBSIDENCE...850-700 DRYING AND              
TRANSITION TO SHORTER FETCH. SO...LES ADVY LEFT INTACT FOR                      
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. VEERING WINDS TO NW WILL                 
EVENTUALLY PUSH LES INTO NE UPR MI...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. GIVEN                 
LATER ONSET...GOING FCST OF 1-2 INCHES LOOKS ON TRACK.                          
OTHERWISE...PATCH -SN/FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH WILL ALSO                
DIMINISH...PER ETA 280K PROG.                                                   
&&                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS ISSUED 350 PM EST FRI FEB 18               
2005                                                                            
LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS LONGER FOR SAT IN W ZONES WITH LOWER LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO EASE ONLY AFTER 15Z. LIMITING FACTORS                    
MENTIONED EARLIER WILL ONLY BE INCREASING BY THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP            
ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH. FLOW BECOMING SE LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT              
NIGHT WILL PUSH LK EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE SAT EVENING. KEPT LOW                
TEMPS BLO ZERO FOR INTERIOR SAT NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT             
ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS FM APPROACHING TROUGH TO SPILL INTO SW ZONES               
VERY LATE.                                                                      
SUN INTO MON...STILL VARYING SOLNS FOR COMBO OF S BRANCH/N BRANCH               
SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT REGION. NOW APPEARS THAT MODELS COMING INTO                
AGREEMENT THAT BRANCHES WILL REMAIN UNPHASED AS TROUGHS CROSS AREA.             
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC LOW TO GENERALLY MOVE W TO E FM CNTRL MS RIVER            
VALLEY INTO N FRINGES OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS VARY FM                  
FARTHER N GFS/CANADIAN TO THE S ETA/NAM...UKMET...AND ECMWF. AS IT              
LOOKED LIKE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...THIS SOLN MAKES SENSE AS HIGH PRES              
RIDGE HOLDS OVR GREAT LAKES AS LATE AS SUN AND PERSISTENT SE WINDS              
WILL ADVECT DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR CWA AHEAD OF THE LOW/INVERTED                
TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME SO MADE FEW CHANGES WITH                 
GOING CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL CWA. POTENTIAL LATER CHANGES WOULD BE              
DELAYING ONSET OF LGT SNOW FOR SUN MORNING IF DRIER AIR HOLDS LONGER            
(AS SHOWN BY ETA/NAM)...AND SCALING BACK POPS FOR N HALF OF CWA.                
EDGE OF SNOW LOOKS PRETTY CERTAIN TO AT LEAST AFFECT THE FAR S...SO             
WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR S HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY SUN PM INTO SUN            
NIGHT.                                                                          
EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE             
FM YDY SOLNS. LOW PRES TROUGH PASSES OVR UPR LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK            
AND USHERS IN BRIEF COOL SHOT (H85 TEMPS AROUND -14C) FOR TUE/WED.              
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATER WED THROUGH FRI DUE TO UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN            
DEPARTING N BRANCH AND S BRANCH TROUGH EMERGING FM SW CONUS. WARM               
AIR ADVECTION DEPICTED OVR UPR PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO UPR LAKES               
TOWARD END OF WEEK. OVERALL...OTHER THAN THE LIGHT WNW FLOW LK                  
EFFECT REGIME THROUGH WED THEME OF EXTENDED IS TRANQUIL WITH SLOWLY             
MODERATING TEMPS.                                                               
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ001-003.                                   
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA(PREV DISC)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1107 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
SNOW OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
EASTERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS            
LONGWAVE IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN             
THAT AREA. A RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND A              
LOW IS DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A              
RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BLANKETING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A              
LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE                
DAKOTAS.                                                                        
THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND                 
WEAKEN AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRAPES THROUGH SOUTHWEST                  
MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN WILL              
SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -16C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO -19C OVER            
THE EAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL                 
SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES               
SOUTH TODAY THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL MOVE              
THE LES HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. STILL AREAS LIKE THE            
NORTHERN TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALGER AND                
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES MAY SEE A SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF             
SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMQT-88D STILL SHOWING SOME MINOR BANDS             
OVER ALGER COUNTY AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING                 
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THE THE NORTHERN U.P. AND CLEAR OVER THE               
SOUTH. THE WILL CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING OVER THOSE                
AREA. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACCORDINGLY.                 
&&                                                                              
MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MIZ006-007-085.                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI NIGHT MIZ001-003.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
227 PM PST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OFF THE CALIFORNIA                
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THIS LOW              
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN              
GREAT BASIN...WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A PATTERN CHANGE              
IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY ALLOW THE AREA            
TO DRY OUT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...ONE WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXITING THE LAS VEGAS              
VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH HEAVIER RAINS STILL OVER LAKE MEAD. THIS               
WAVE WAS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE                 
PRECIP WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SAN BERNARDINO               
COUNTY BORDER WITH KERN AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND WAS MOVING                 
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THIS PRECIP WAS NOT MODELED SO WELL. THESE TWO                
AREAS SHOULD COMPRISE ONE OF TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE             
CWFA...WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING IN THE LONG TERM ON                           
MONDAY/TUESDAY. BACK TO THE SHORT TERM...IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN                
WAVES WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ILL-DEFINED                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIPPING BY PERIODICALLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A                
SCENARIO WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED. BETTER RAIN                   
CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA CLOSEST TO THE            
SHORTWAVE TRACK...AND LESSER CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE                 
SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A DRY SLOT                  
MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ALL ZONES              
DUE TO THE EXPECTED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE.               
THE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS WERE A TOUGH DECISION. LOTS OF CALLS TO                 
SPOTTERS SUGGEST THAT CRITERIA HAVE NOT BEEN MET ANYWHERE.                      
HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER CLARK COUNTY AND              
CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER INYO COUNTY...DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL EITHER              
ONE EARLY. RUC AND 12-KM NAM OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP             
WILL BE OVER IN BOTH AREAS AROUND 6 PM...SO DID NOT WANT TO EXTEND              
IT EITHER. COMPROMISE SOLUTION WAS TO LET IT GO UNTIL 6 PM...AND                
HOPE THAT EVENING CREW GETS SOME GOOD LAST MINUTE INFORMATION.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE MODELS IN              
THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT IS THIS.             
ANOTHER WAVE / LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE CALIFORNIAN COAST               
SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SETS UP ANOTHER SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW OVER THE                 
REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE DIFLUENT AS WELL. WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE            
EAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOST OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE                    
PRECIPITATION IN SOME FORM. HAVE INCREASED POPS AS WELL FOR MONDAY              
AND TUESDAY AS MODELS AGREE WELL AND BRING IN ABUNDANT                          
MOISTURE. AFTER TUESDAY THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR WILL               
MAKE FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND DECREASED COVERAGE ON BACK SIDE OF              
LOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO RIVER THIS                
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP             
THE RAIN OVER KLAS AND ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY             
EVENING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO LET UP AROUND 02-03Z. CIGS SHOULD BE              
BACK ABOVE 5000 FEET BY 12Z IN THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR                 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS WELL WITH THE DAGGETT CORRIDOR BEING             
THE FIRST TO CLEAR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NVZ018 AND NVZ019 ABOVE 7000             
FEET UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.                                               
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAZ026 ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL             
6 PM PST THIS EVENING.                                                          
$$                                                                              
MORGAN/JACQUES                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
326 AM PST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING RAIN BAND MOVING UP THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE             
CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING. A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE                    
EXPLAINS WHY...WITH A TIGHT VORT CENTER OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION AND             
A RUC ANALYZED 80-100 KT JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA                       
CALIFORNIA. THE RAIN BAND SHOULD MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN LATER THIS                
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MOVES NORTH AND THE JET                  
STREAK MOVES INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OUR ZONES ARE                    
POSITIONED IN BETWEEN ALL THE ACTION TODAY...WITH STRONG JET FORCING            
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DEFORMATION TO OUR              
NORTHWEST. STILL...WE ARE EXPECTING ENOUGH OF THE REMNANT RAIN BAND             
COMBINED WITH MODEST OROGRAPHICS OVER MONO COUNTY TO KEEP THE SNOW              
ADVISORY GOING...ALTHOUGH IT HAD TO BE PUSHED BACK FURTHER TODAY PER            
CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL/CENTRAL VALLEY RAIN BANDS.                   
WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT               
AND WEAK TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IT WAS HARD TO               
PINPOINT TIMING DETAILS OF PRECIP. THEREFORE...THERE IS AT LEAST A              
CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGHEST POPS           
REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA...WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD                 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER OROGRAPHICS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP                 
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED              
EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF             
FOR THE SIERRA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE                    
FORECAST GETS TRICKIER...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE                   
CALIFORNIA COAST. EXACTLY HOW FAR OFF THE COAST IT MOVES IS CRITICAL            
FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENT PROGS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A FURTHER OFF              
COAST POSITION...WHICH WOULD DRAMATICALLY REDUCE REGIONAL PRECIP.               
FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS. SNYDER                                     
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                         
GFS/EURO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK BUT               
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. EURO A BIT FASTER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF             
THE COAST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND...AND            
GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS             
TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TRIM EACH DAY WITH ALL AREAS DRY BY                  
THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL            
BE WARMING MAX TEMPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED              
THERE. OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST GIVEN                        
UNCERTAINTY. WALLMANN                                                           
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...SNOW ADVISORY 10 AM THRU 10 PM FRIDAY CAZ073.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1211 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...
THOUGH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WL STILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND      
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO    
THE GRIDS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
SHORTWAVE WITH CHANNELLED VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT    
JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWFA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO STAY NORTH OF US...BUT      
PROGRESS SLOWLY...EXTENDING SUBSIDENCE PERIOD. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING  
SHOWS THAT WIND FIELDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER MODEL        
RUNS. CWFA SEEMS TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CORE OF STRONGEST 85H WINDS...   
WITH BOTH RNK AND GSO SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER FROM      
AROUND 85H INTO THE MID LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALSO...STRONGER
IN THE NORTH...BUT WEAKENING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WITHIN OUR TWO WIND ADVISORY AREAS SHOW THAT HIGHEST  
WIND SPEEDS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 4 AM; BEECH MOUNTAIN REPORTED A GUST TO 43 MPH  
WHILE NEWLAND GUSTED TO 36 SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WINDS        
HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED AS ANTICIPATED...AND WE ENTERTAINED SERIOUS THOUGHT OF   
CANCELLING IT. BUT AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY HERE IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE...     
WINDS SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN       
LOCATIONS. 12KM ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH SHOW SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS   
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL PLAN TO KEEP BOTH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AS      
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR  
 THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NOT CURRENTLY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY.   
OUR FRESH WIND GRIDS SHOW THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FRENCH  
BROAD VALLEY COULD STILL GUST INTO ADVISORY RANGE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE     
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA EXPIRES AT NOON. WE WILL LOOK AT WIND       
SPEED TRENDS TOWARD EXPIRATION TIME OF THE CURRENT FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ADVISORY 
TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TEMPORAL EXTENSION. IF WE DO GO AHEAD AND LET IT EXPIRE      
AT MIDDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THROUGH     
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CANCEL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WIND ADVISORY 
BEFORE ISSUING THE 4 PM PACKAGE.                                                
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWFA. A GENEARL DOWNSLOPE   
FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALCHIANS CLEAR TODAY UNLESS MID 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FROM TIME TO TIME. FUL
SUN COULD HELP NEGATE THE COLD ADVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LEE OF THE        
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL LOWER SOME OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA   
BUT MAINTAIN MID 50S THERE FOR HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME. WILL PLAN  
TO LOWER MAXES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA    
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY     
NOT ESCAPE THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 325 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
PLAN ON LEAVING INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS             
AS IS BASED ON 08Z NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AWOS MTRS AND EXPECTED                     
CONTINUATION OF CAA/SOME PRESSURE RISES THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS              
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TAME ACRS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ATTM...BUT WITH             
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AFTER SUNRISE...            
STILL COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDS BEFORE CAA ABATES...NW FLOW JET                  
DECREASES AND PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE                   
MTNS...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN                 
BREEZY CONDITIONS.                                                              
SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE COAST ON             
SATURDAY. DEEPER WAA RH PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE NC MTNS BY 00Z               
SUN...WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE MOISTURE                  
RETURN. WILL STILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT WILL BEEF UP TREND TOWARD            
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS BY DAY'S END.                                               
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                  
LOOKS LIKE LOBE OF WAA LIGHT PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS WESTERN                  
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE DEEPER RH CLOSES IN                 
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL RAMP UP POPS HIGHER              
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE NC MTNS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.            
MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT                  
WINTRY MIX SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUICKER ENCROACHMENT OF RH DOES                 
NOT ALLOW MINS TO GET AS COLD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISE OF 2-5                 
DEG F AT KAVL AS PER LATEST MAV/MET FROM PREVIOUS RUN. SLUG OF                  
DEEPER RH AND LIFT STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS                    
BY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT             
OF A PROBLEM AS LEE TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WILL BE SOME GUSTS              
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL BE DIRECTLY            
RELATED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LEE TROF. HAVE GONE TOWARD                  
CLIMATOLOGY FOR DIRECTIONS. ONCE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION KICKS              
IN EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AT KAVL. HAVE GUSTS                  
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT BEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIXING                  
BEGINS BY MID MORNING.                                                          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT THIS                
AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS               
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT              
AGENCIES WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AND IT WAS DETERMINED THAT FUEL                   
MOISTURES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE.                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM                  
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065 FROM                 
     NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.                                                
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BPM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1018 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SHORTWAVE WITH CHANNELLED VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT    
JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWFA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO STAY NORTH OF US...BUT      
PROGRESS SLOWLY...EXTENDING SUBSIDENCE PERIOD. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING  
SHOWS THAT WIND FIELDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER MODEL        
RUNS. CWFA SEEMS TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CORE OF STRONGEST 85H WINDS...   
WITH BOTH RNK AND GSO SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER FROM      
AROUND 85H INTO THE MID LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALSO...STRONGER
IN THE NORTH...BUT WEAKENING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.               
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WITHIN OUR TWO WIND ADVISORY AREAS SHOW THAT HIGHEST  
WIND SPEEDS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 4 AM; BEECH MOUNTAIN REPORTED A GUST TO 43 MPH  
WHILE NEWLAND GUSTED TO 36 SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WINDS        
HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED AS ANTICIPATED...AND WE ENTERTAINED SERIOUS THOUGHT OF   
CANCELLING IT. BUT AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY HERE IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE...     
WINDS SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN       
LOCATIONS. 12KM ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH SHOW SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS   
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL PLAN TO KEEP BOTH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AS      
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR  
 THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NOT CURRENTLY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY.   
OUR FRESH WIND GRIDS SHOW THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FRENCH  
BROAD VALLEY COULD STILL GUST INTO ADVISORY RANGE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE     
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA EXPIRES AT NOON. WE WILL LOOK AT WIND       
SPEED TRENDS TOWARD EXPIRATION TIME OF THE CURRENT FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ADVISORY 
TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TEMPORAL EXTENSION. IF WE DO GO AHEAD AND LET IT EXPIRE      
AT MIDDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THROUGH     
THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CANCEL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WIND ADVISORY 
BEFORE ISSUING THE 4 PM PACKAGE.                                                
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWFA. A GENEARL DOWNSLOPE   
FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALCHIANS CLEAR TODAY UNLESS MID 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FROM TIME TO TIME. FUL
SUN COULD HELP NEGATE THE COLD ADVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LEE OF THE        
MOUNTAINS. WE WILL LOWER SOME OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA   
BUT MAINTAIN MID 50S THERE FOR HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME. WILL PLAN  
TO LOWER MAXES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA    
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY     
NOT ESCAPE THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 325 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
PLAN ON LEAVING INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS             
AS IS BASED ON 08Z NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AWOS MTRS AND EXPECTED                     
CONTINUATION OF CAA/SOME PRESSURE RISES THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS              
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TAME ACRS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ATTM...BUT WITH             
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AFTER SUNRISE...            
STILL COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDS BEFORE CAA ABATES...NW FLOW JET                  
DECREASES AND PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE                   
MTNS...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN                 
BREEZY CONDITIONS.                                                              
SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE COAST ON             
SATURDAY. DEEPER WAA RH PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE NC MTNS BY 00Z               
SUN...WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE MOISTURE                  
RETURN. WILL STILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT WILL BEEF UP TREND TOWARD            
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS BY DAY'S END.                                               
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                  
LOOKS LIKE LOBE OF WAA LIGHT PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS WESTERN                  
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE DEEPER RH CLOSES IN                 
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL RAMP UP POPS HIGHER              
THIS PERIOD...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE NC MTNS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.            
MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT                  
WINTRY MIX SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUICKER ENCROACHMENT OF RH DOES                 
NOT ALLOW MINS TO GET AS COLD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISE OF 2-5                 
DEG F AT KAVL AS PER LATEST MAV/MET FROM PREVIOUS RUN. SLUG OF                  
DEEPER RH AND LIFT STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS                    
BY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT             
OF A PROBLEM AS LEE TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WILL BE SOME GUSTS              
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL BE DIRECTLY            
RELATED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LEE TROF. HAVE GONE TOWARD                  
CLIMATOLOGY FOR DIRECTIONS. ONCE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION KICKS              
IN EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AT KAVL. HAVE GUSTS                  
BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT BEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIXING                  
BEGINS BY MID MORNING.                                                          
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT THIS                
AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS               
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT              
AGENCIES WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AND IT WAS DETERMINED THAT FUEL                   
MOISTURES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE.                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-053-065 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON                  
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-053-065 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM                  
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 FROM 6 AM                
     FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY.                                                     
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SAB                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
830 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO                
DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN                 
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AT 2Z RUNS FROM HBV             
TO ALI TO RKP WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND              
LOWER 50S WELL TO THE NORTH.  OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE EARLY                    
TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS WARM FRONT              
LIFTS NORTH.  CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST HAS THINNED OUT OVER THE              
LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK THIS TREND IS TEMPORARY AS CRP/BRO                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.  MODELS STILL            
SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-295K LAYER OVERNIGHT  BUT               
AREA RADARS ARE QUIET AT THE PRESENT TIME.  WILL LOWER POPS TO                  
ISOLATED OUT WEST.  ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS/TEMPS NEEDED.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE            
COASTAL BEND SOUTHWEST TO LAREDO. BUT AFTER MVFR CEILINGS MOVED INTO            
THE COASTAL BEND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z...STRATUS HAS ERODED. THE                   
RUC/ETA MODEL SHOW SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER             
06Z...BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BACK INTO THE                   
COASTAL BEND. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...THAT ARE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF            
SOUTH TEXAS...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND BY AROUND            
04Z. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE              
PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE LOWER NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH IFR CONDITIONS            
REPORTED AT HBV ALONG WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2 1/2 SM. OCCASIONAL            
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS FROM LAREDO TO HBV EASTWARD TO NEAR ALI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR              
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH                       
TEXAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ON                        
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91/DUNN...PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS                                                   
89/TMT...AVIATION                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1120 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...WILL THROW A MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ZONES            
FOR TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN WHICH              
IS REACHING THE GROUND.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. /91              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE            
COASTAL BEND SOUTHWEST TO LAREDO. BUT AFTER MVFR CEILINGS MOVED INTO            
THE COASTAL BEND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z...STRATUS HAS ERODED. THE                   
RUC/ETA MODEL SHOW SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER             
06Z...BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BACK INTO THE                   
COASTAL BEND. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...THAT ARE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF            
SOUTH TEXAS...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND BY AROUND            
04Z. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE              
PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE LOWER NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH IFR CONDITIONS            
REPORTED AT HBV ALONG WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2 1/2 SM. OCCASIONAL            
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS FROM LAREDO TO HBV EASTWARD TO NEAR ALI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR              
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH                       
TEXAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ON                        
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91/DUNN...PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS                                                   
89/TMT...AVIATION                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
910 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE                      
AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN GA. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS VERY                   
ATMOS CONDS WITH PWAT AT 0.30 INCHES AND NE FLOW AOB 4 KFT AND                  
BECOMING NW AND W ALOFT. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START WITH LOWS IN THE             
LOWER 30S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NE AND E             
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EWD INTO ATLC TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE               
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED WITH LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MESO-ETA             
AND GFS SHOW SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE IN               
THE SE ZONES AND THEN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER AL AND            
EXTREME WRN GA TO MOVE INTO THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTN            
AND EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN GRIDS.               
MARINE...WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ALLOWING A SQUEEZE IN THE              
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SAUF1 REPORTING NNE 13KT...AND SIMILAR                   
READING AT 41012. MAY TWEAK WINDS UPWARD FOR NEARSHORE WATERS BUT               
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TARGET.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST RH ANALYSES AND RUC SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING             
FOR MOST OF INLAND NE FL. THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT.                
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY               
      FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...FLZ020...FLZ021...FLZ022...FLZ023...            
      FLZ024...FLZ025...FLZ030...FLZ031...FLZ032...FLZ035...FLZ036...           
      FLZ037...AND FLZ040.                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1026 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW            
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES                 
BAY...A WEAK RIDGE RUNS NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A LOW               
OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE            
OF THE RIDGE ARE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA.                
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A COLD                 
FRONT DRAPED THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. A 1031MB              
HIGH IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE FORECAST AREA.                
THIS RIDGE IS CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND DRIER...COLDER AIR TO                 
ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR            
IS AROUND -20C. ETA12 CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE            
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. VISIBLE SATELLITE                  
CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND            
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH MUCH WEAKER BANDS OVER THE WESTERN                 
LAKE. KMQT-88D IS TRACKING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS ALGER            
AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. SURFACE REPORTS ALSO INDICATE                
THAT THE LAKE EFFECTS SNOW ARE LIGHT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND MUCH             
HEAVIER EAST OF MARQUETTE. SOUNDING DATA SHOWING THE BASE OF THE                
LOWEST INVERSION IS AROUND 875MB.                                               
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MIGRATE EAST THIS                
AFTERNOON. ETA12 SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL              
AS WINDS BECOME FORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE               
HIGH CENTER MOVE INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ETA12 270K ISENTROPIC              
ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE                      
SUPERIOR...WITH A NEUTRAL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT IS INCREASING TO 200MB. 850MB                     
TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRIER AND MORE             
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL THE WEAKEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE LAKE              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING                
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
457 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC                                 
ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS            
REGION FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST. THE             
BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION BUT BOTH             
NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER             
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR               
CWA TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT PCPN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND                 
NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR DRY AIRMASS. JAN              
00Z SAT SOUNDING HAD A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600-900MB THAT WILL               
TAKE TODAY TO SATURATE. EL DORADO REPORTED LIGHT RAIN LAST HOUR AND             
THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES BEFORE DRYING UP             
...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THAT AREA EARLY                
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE DELTA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL               
LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED              
OVER SE ALABAMA. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TODAY                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION.              
SFC DEW PTS IN THE 30S SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN THE SW BY THIS             
EVENING ALONG WITH PWS BACK TO ONE INCH. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO TRACK EAST.             
AS IT DOES...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN                   
PARISHES AND COUNTIES BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR.                    
COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIKELY POPS SEEM               
JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 82 TONIGHT. LOWER POPS STILL               
EXPECTED SOUTH. THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN              
THE WEST TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING BUT WL OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF               
THUNDER UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.                                            
MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DID NOT WANT TO              
FLIP FLOP ON FORECAST...BUT MODELS SUGGEST BETTER RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY            
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE                    
AREA...WITH LOW LEVELS WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE.                
INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN THE MODEL              
CAPE VALUES. THE ETA AND UK NEVER REALLY BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE            
AREA...BUT THE UK DOES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE              
CWA. DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SHIFT HIGHER POPS ABOUT 12 HOURS.            
STILL LOOKS THERE MAY BE A BREAK MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO             
TAPER RAIN CHANCES OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO             
HANG AROUND I-20 AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARM MOIST              
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE               
LOWER 70S WAS STILL GOOD THROUGH MONDAY.                                        
.LONG TERM... THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY...WITH           
A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY COMES BACK AS A               
WARM FRONT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP.                  
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY                              
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS           
SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SE US AND FORCING              
THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF TH FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WERE OK. NOT               
REAL SURE ABOUT THE DEWPOINTS...MODELS SUGGEST COOLER DRY AIR BY MID            
WEEK. DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT VALUES. GENERALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO             
THE EXTENDED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS OF 10-15K              
THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. AS            
RAIN SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY              
LOWER TO AROUND 6-8K FT BY 00Z SUNDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       62  49  68  60 /  20  40  40  80                                  
MERIDIAN      62  46  68  58 /  10  40  40  80                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/22                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
918 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RUC IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL THAT                     
ACCURATELY INITIALIZED THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS JUST             
ENTERING THE COASTAL PLAINS. MESO-ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE              
OF COOLER AIR OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS             
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THROUGH 00Z. ONLY CHANGES TO THE            
TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN                  
COUNTIES AND RAISE SOME OVER THE NORTHERN COAST. BAND OF                        
RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE EAST IS LOCATED IN A PERSISTENT MOISTURE                  
CONVERGENCE REGION WHICH WILL TREK NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL            
INDICATE HIGH-END CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE JUST                 
DRIZZLE IN AN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME. FOG OVER THE WESTERN RIO               
GRANDE PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN                     
FAVORABLE WEST FLANK OF THE WARM FRONT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST SHY OF SCEC OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE              
WATERS AND AT SCEC CRITERIA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS/FOG WILL                
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND TO VFR                   
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL BE MUCH SLOWER IN AREAS              
FROM LAREDO TO COTULLA. AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO            
VICTORIA WILL OCASIONALLY SLOW THIS PROCESS AS WELL THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
85/SHORT-TERM                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1205 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                     
...UDPATED TO EXPAND RFW INTO SE GA WHERE RH WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE             
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.                                                      
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE                      
AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN GA. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS VERY                   
ATMOS CONDS WITH PWAT AT 0.30 INCHES AND NE FLOW AOB 4 KFT AND                  
BECOMING NW AND W ALOFT. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START WITH LOWS IN THE             
LOWER 30S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NE AND E             
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EWD INTO ATLC TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE               
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED WITH LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MESO-ETA             
AND GFS SHOW SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE IN               
THE SE ZONES AND THEN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER AL AND            
EXTREME WRN GA TO MOVE INTO THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTN            
AND EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN GRIDS.               
MARINE...WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ALLOWING A SQUEEZE IN THE              
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SAUF1 REPORTING NNE 13KT...AND SIMILAR                   
READING AT 41012. MAY TWEAK WINDS UPWARD FOR NEARSHORE WATERS BUT               
OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TARGET.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...LATEST RH ANALYSES AND RUC SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING             
FOR MOST OF INLAND NE FL.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR THE                        
     FOLLOWING ZONES...FLZ020...FLZ021...FLZ022...FLZ023...                     
     FLZ024...FLZ025...FLZ030...FLZ031...FLZ032...FLZ035...FLZ036...            
     FLZ037...AND FLZ040.                                                       
GA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...           
     GAZ132...GAZ133...GAZ134...GAZ135...GAZ136...GAZ149...                     
     GAZ150...GAZ151 ...GAZ152...GAZ162...GAZ163...AND GAZ164.                  
AM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
300 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO              
A NUMBER OF REASONS. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD                 
HELP COOL THE COLUMN AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS STILL                    
AROUND -16C. THE COOLING WILL NOT COME UNTIL OVERNIGHT. WHILE                   
THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS NO DEEP LAYER                
CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATED WITH IT. WITH CIN'S ON THE ORDER OF                      
100J/KG, LOOKS LIKE THERMODYNAMICS CAN'T DO IT ALONE TODAY, AND                 
THAT'S WHAT YOU'D EXPECT FOR FEBRUARY IN THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY.              
IF ANYTHING, AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS THE                
EAST AS WEAK 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION PICKS UP AFTER 00Z BUT SHIFTS              
QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. AM NOT                       
CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO 20 POPS HOWEVER. SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST                    
ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN THE SW MOVES EAST                
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL                    
PROBABLY NOT DROP OFF MUCH SO HAVE RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY.                        
LOOKS LIKE A MILD DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE               
OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE. WITH MILD 850MB TEMPS AROUND                  
10C, TEMPS SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF WESTERN KS.                
TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME UP NORTH WITH 850MB COLD ADVECTION                 
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME FOR                     
PRESIDENT'S DAY. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND WE                 
SHOULD SEE SOME SUN SO HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO FROM THE              
PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THE 50S.                                                 
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED IS IF ANY CHANGES ARE WARRANTED              
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SEE THE SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE EJECTED               
FROM CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW, ONE EVERY 36 HOURS OR SO.  JUST PIECES OF            
ENERGY SEEM TO PEEL OFF AND FLOW EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN             
ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE PRECIPITATION              
TYPE CAN BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE             
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEM TO WARM THE LAYER NEAR THE                
SURFACE UP NICELY, BEFORE COLDER AIR IS RUSHED IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS            
BEHIND FROPA.  CHANGE THE PRECIP TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO JUST                 
RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONED TO R-/ZR-/S- TUESDAY NIGHT, STAYING WITH 30             
POPS.  AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO NOT GO HIGHER THAN 20-30              
POPS, AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY PROGRESS              
EAST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  44  65  34  53 /  10   0   0   0                                           
GCK  39  64  32  54 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  40  65  34  60 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  43  67  35  58 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  41  62  30  51 /  10   0   0   0                                           
P28  47  68  37  55 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LACY/TSB                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW TRENDS/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN             
NIGHT.                                                                          
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH NW              
NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GRT LAKES. ONE SIGNIFICANT SRN                
STREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. NRN STREAM ENERGY            
WAS EMERGING FROM CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BC. AT THE SFC...A RDG                    
EXTENDED FROM LK WINNIPEG THROUGH WRN LK SUPERIOR AND N WI TOWARD               
THE OH VALLEY. REMAINING LES BANDS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER             
THE ERN LAKE...PER KMQT RADAR LOOP...WITH MAINLY JUST SCT                       
-SHSN/FLURRIES. OVER THE WEST LES HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY              
SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED WAA                
CLOUDS INTO THE SW HLF OF WI AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS                  
TROUGH. RADARS/OBS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF PCPN HAD SPREAD INTO               
SRN MN AND NW IA. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AIR PREVAILED ACRS THE AREA              
WITH DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND -10F N OF LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR 0F OVER                
MOST OF UPR MI.                                                                 
TONIGHT...AS THE RDG AXIS SLIDES EAST AND WINDS BECOME VARIABLE                 
TOWARD 06Z AND OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LAND BREEZE... ANY LINGERING -SHSN            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...ETA 700-500 RH             
SUGGESTS CLOUDS FROM WI SHOULD SPREAD ACRS UPR MI BTWN 03Z-09Z.                 
ALTHOUGH ETA/GFS QPF SUGGEST -SN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SW NEAR                 
12Z...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS (EXCEPT KIWD VCNTY) AS DRY AIR IN PLACE            
SHOULD SLOW ONSET OF -SN AT THE SFC.                                            
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT                  
PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY AND OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SFC LOW              
TRACKS (ETA FARTHER S)...SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD             
OF AN INVERTED TROF...AIDED BY DIV FROM H3 JET RIGHT ENTRANCE...                
WILL SUPPORT BROAD AREA OF -SN INTO THE WRN LAKES. DECENT MOISTURE              
ON 25-35 KT DEEP LYR 280-295K WILL BRING -SN ACRS UPR MI SUNDAY.                
WITH RELATIVELY MODEST DYNAMICS AND MORE PROMINENT H8 FRONT TO THE              
SOUTH...LEANED TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE 12Z GFS QPF WITH AMOUNTS TO             
AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SOUTH. THE 18Z ETA HAS ALSO TRENDED IN                
THIS DIRECTION.  ALSO EXPECT THAT SFC DRY ACYC SE FLOW MAY REDUCE               
PCPN AMOUNTS MORE THAN MDLS SUGGEST. SNOW/WATER RATIO IN THE 10/1 TO            
15/1 RANGE(PER ROEBBER GUIDANCE) WOULD GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO               
3-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.            
SO...ADVY POSTED FOR MUCH OF SRN TIER THROUGH SUN EVENING.                      
EXPECT SN TO THEN TAPER OFF BTWN 03Z-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE               
SFC-H8 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG 850-500            
QVECTOR CONV WITH THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE             
OF -SN GOING.                                                                   
MON...STRONG QDIV TAKES OVER BEHIND THE SHRTWV. MOIST CYCLONIC NRLY             
FLOW BEHIND THE TROF WITH H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -12C WILL BRING SOME               
SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY NRN UPR MI.                                      
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ETA/GFS/UKMET SUGGEST A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV                
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GRT LAKES. HOWEVER...DETAILS WITH LOW               
LVL WIND FIELDS INCREASES AS ETA DEPICTS MORE BACKING.                          
WEAK SFC GRADIENT AND WIND FIELDS WITH LK INDUCED TROFFING                      
DOMINATING LEADS ALSO REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LES                    
CHANCES. SO...MAINTAINED GENERAL -SHSN ACRS THE NORTH.                          
WED-SAT...NW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH THE LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF REX                 
BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM. -SN/FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED FOR WED NIGHT WITH             
WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV FOLLOWED BY SOME LES EVEN THROUGH GFS/ECMWF H8              
TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES INSTABILITY. NEXT -SN CHANCE FOR SAT IS              
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBILIY OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER..PER 00Z-12Z GFS.            
&&                                                                              
MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
SNOW ADVISORY MIZ010>013 6 AM EST TO 10 PM SUNDAY.                              
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
330 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES             
NOTED. WITH A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE...TOUGH TO GAUGE                 
EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRALS PLAINS                  
TONIGHT. HISTORICALLY...MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH WEAK               
SURFACE LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE            
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE MIDWEST TOMORROW.                       
EQUALLY IMPORTANT FOR US IS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE                    
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN                 
LAKES TONIGHT. THIS HIGH HAS/WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO SINK               
SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION ON            
SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECASTED BY            
12Z ETA/GFS OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                                           
THE PROBLEMS BETWEEN THE MODELS SEEM TO LIE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER            
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOW FAST DOES A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT                
EASTWARD...AS UKMET/GFS AND ESPECIALLY 12Z CANADIAN INDICATING                  
PHASING OCCURRING BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A STRONGER            
AND FARTHER NORTH SURFACE TRACK...AND THUS MORE WARM AIR.                       
MEANWHILE...12Z ETA/NGM REMAIN FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL               
PSEUDO SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...AS PHASING DOES NOT REALLY OCCUR.                 
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN                    
BORDER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE               
FREEZING...AS EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO WOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT               
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A STRONG HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.                     
IT SHOULD BE NOTED 12Z GFS RUN IS 3 MB WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW              
BY 6Z MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN.                                          
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL             
LEAD TO A BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THERMAL             
PROFILES REMAIN IN QUESTION. BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING GREATER                
THAN A HALF AN INCH TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH OF QPF OVER SOUTHEAST                
MICHIGAN (EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THERE IS LESS).                     
UNTIL I SEE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND FLATTER                  
INITIAL WAVE...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 20KM RUC. EVEN WITH THE               
WARMER GFS SOLUTION...SHOULD BE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW BEFORE WE                  
CHANGEOVER. GFS BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST              
4-7 INCHES.                                                                     
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW                  
AND/OR ICING...WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF                 
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL GENERALLY BE MENTIONING 4 TO 8 INCHES                  
POSSIBLE...WITH LESS AMOUNTS TOWARD OHIO BORDER. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE             
PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY SNOW WE COULD BE ON THE HIGHER                          
END...OTHERWISE WE WILL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW                
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ICE. GUIDANCE ISSUED BY HPC IS TO TAKE A                   
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA/GFS.                                                     
A QUICK GLANCE AT 18Z ETA SHOWS SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG OR JUST                 
SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER. HOWEVER...A LITTLE CONCERNING IS THE              
LACK OF QPF FORECASTED. WILL NOT JUMP SHIP YET WITH PREVIOUS                    
THINKING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WATCH ENDED UP BEING                   
TRANSITIONED TO A ADVISORY BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT. CAN'T RECALL TOO MANY             
TRUE OVERRUNNING EVENTS WHICH PRODUCE MORE THAN 6 INCHES.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
MODELS DO AGREE ON SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY BY DAYBREAK                         
MONDAY...WITH TROUGH ALSO RETREATING EAST...BUT SUBSEQUENT                      
RESUMPTION OF TROUGHINESS OR WEAK WAVE SETTLING DOWN INTO AREA FOR              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 500 MB...A VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS                  
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING DURING THE TUESDAY TIME                 
FRAME.                                                                          
MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH GFS AND NAM...SHOW MOISTURE ALOFT RAPIDLY                
PEELING AWAY BY MID DAY OF MONDAY...PROMISING THEN LITTLE IN WAY OF             
ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY. THUS WILL CONFINE MONDAY PRECIPITATION...              
CHANCE POPS AS BEFORE...JUST TO THE MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER            
MOISTURE AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS PER NAM/GFS...SO WILL               
INTRODUCE FLURRIES MENTION FOR THOSE PERIODS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL CONTINUE PRETTY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.               
OMEGA FIELDS IN LOW TO MID LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY              
INDICATE WEAK SUBSIDENCE. SOME SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR                     
CONVERGENCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DIFFERENTIAL              
PVA...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SLIGHT AT                
BEST.                                                                           
FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM FORECASTS OF            
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE NOSES IN BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THEN INDICATING              
HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DGEX                
1000 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...06Z RUN...DO NOT GENERALLY            
INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 700 MB              
OMEGA LIFT AND MODEL QPF ALSO ABSENT. AT 500 MB...SERIES OF NORTHERN            
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE                  
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD RIDGING              
BUILDING IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1220 PM EST SAT                                              
FOR THE SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERNS (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)               
MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND WINDS.  STILL A FAIR AMOUNT              
OF CLOUDINESS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WESTERLY FLOW AND 12 UTC              
DTX RAOB SHOWING A PRETTY DECENT MOIST LAYER FROM 3-5KFT. ENOUGH SUN            
IS COMING THROUGH (ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH) TO ALLOW A MINOR DIURNAL                  
COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT BKN-SCT BASES AROUND 2.5KFT             
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MORE SOLID               
LAYER ABOVE NEAR 4-5KFT. AS WE MIX OUT... SOUNDINGS DO OFFER SOME               
SUPPORT FOR WESTERLIES GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS              
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING            
DIURNAL COMPONENTS TO THE WEATHER WILL TAKE A BACK SEAT TO                      
APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES.  WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD               
DIE OFF QUICKLY AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN AS WELL.                 
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH MID             
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN DURING THAT TIME FRAME.            
PRETTY MUCH BUYING INTO THE NAM TIMING SCENARIO OF BRINGING A CHANCE            
OF SNOW AMD MVFR INTO ALL BUT MBS BY AROUND 16 UTC WITH THE HEAVIER             
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS HOLDING OFF UNTIL              
THE OUT PERIOD AFTER 18 UTC.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY FOR                    
MIZ053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.                                     
.LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM PORT AUSTIN            
TO PORT HURON.                                                                  
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF/DWD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING ACRS WHILE SATELLITE INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL        
DRY SLOT WORKING E THRU W TX. NAM40 INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY TO FOCUS         
ALONG/JUST E OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THIS PM WITH CAP OF 50J/KG TO           
OVERCOME. ACCORDING TO ELP/MAF SOUNDINGS AND RUC 7H-5H LR/S SUFFICIENT          
FOR CONVECTION MAINLY E AND S. OTHERWISE WINDS ACRS GDP MTNS ON THE WINDY       
SIDE WITH HIER ELEVATIONS GUSTING TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ACCORDING TO CROSS           
SECTIONS A WANING MTN WAVE COUPLET FAVORS A MARGINAL EVENT CONFINED TO          
FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE PASS AND EXPOSED RIDGES. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT          
GUSTY WINDS IN PRODUCTS WITH NO WARNING PLANNED ATTM FOR THIS PM.               
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx