AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
1137 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR AVIATION CONCERNS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT                  
LEAST 09Z. RUC AND NAM ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS OF                 
1500-2000 FT TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                     
ARKANSAS...INCLUDING ...LIT...HOT...AND PBF...FROM 11-16Z. WINDS WILL           
BE SOUTHERLY FROM 8-11 KTS AT ALL SITES...THEN WILL SLOWLY VEER                 
AFTER 06Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO WARRENT MENTION               
IN FORECASTS.                                                                   
55                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1034 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. MAINLY HAD TO REMOVE THE MORNING                    
WORDING. ALSO...TEMPS ARE WARMING FASTER THAN INCLUDED IN THE                   
GRIDS. BELIEVE THAT MAXES WERE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO LOW FOR                  
TODAY. CLOUDS HAVE NOT INCREASED AS MUCH EITHER...SO BACKED OFF ON              
CLOUD COVER AS WELL. DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINDED FAIRLY LOW IN LIGHT              
OF CLOSED GULF AND THE DRY AIR WILL WARM JUST A TAD MORE THAN                   
EXPECTED IN EARLIER ISSUANCE.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 320 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006/                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS JUST NOW              
ENCROACHING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVED IN THE EASTERN ARKANSAS                 
DELTA...WITH TEMPS THIS MORNING IN THE MID 30S TO THE UPPER 40S.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...WITH SOUTHERLY                 
WINDS RETURNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE            
WEST...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD             
WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.                            
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS WEAK...WITH                
HIGHEST MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH. HELD OFF ON ANY POPS UNTIL AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. EVEN            
SO...QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.                        
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. READINGS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 10             
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY MORNING.                                           
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...BEFORE MOISTURE MOVES            
NORTH IN RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. AS THIS AIR MOVES OVER               
THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE...STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY                 
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                      
WEEKEND...AND COULD BRING THE REGION SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.              
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                      
UPPER TROF IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES LIKELY TO BE               
EMANATING OUT OF IT DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. COLD SURFACE HIGH                
WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHICH RELAXES              
SOME WITH TIME. WARM FRONT STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SO A             
PROLONGED OVERRUNNING PERIOD IS SET UP FOR THE AREA. CONTINUED                  
LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE                
REST OF THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT RAIN.               
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER LOW GETS A             
LITTLE CLOSER AND THE AIR MASS MODIFIES SO MENTION OF ISOLATED                  
THUNDER KEPT IN FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY ON. UPPER TROF COMES OUT ON                  
MONDAY AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THIS COULD BRING THE WARM FRONT            
NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH THE EAST MORE FAVORED...AND               
POSE A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. GFS IS HINTING AT A LINE OF                   
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH COULD BE A SQUALL               
LINE. HOWEVER THIS FAR OUT TIMING AND DETAILS ARE STILL VAGUE SO                
WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH CHANCES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER               
FOR NOW. ALSO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT AS PROGGED              
SO CONTINUED SMALL POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPS PROBABLY WILL SHOW A             
SLOW WARMING TREND BUT WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY              
THE MAXES.                                                                      
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
238 PM MST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...RUC QG ANALYSES SHOWING PRETTY DECENT AND              
DEEP ASCENT OVER THE PLAINS AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS LIFTING FAIRLY               
DRY AIR SO ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA.  WILL                
HOLD ONTO VERY SLIGHT POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING.              
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT AIR HEADING              
OUR WAY FROM THE WEST WHICH IS STARTING TO SHUT PRECIPITATION DOWN              
IN THE MOUNTAINS.  OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS                 
GOING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT BUT BRUNT OF SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE COMING            
TO AN END.  PLENTY OF WIND AROUND IN ALL AREAS AT THIS TIME WITH A              
MODERATE BORA EVENT UNDERWAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  LOW STATIC                 
STABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AS                  
FORECAST ON THE MM5 SO WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY UNIFORM ACROSS THE            
DISTRICT.  THEY MAY PICKING UP SOME IN THE HIGHEST AREAS ALONG THE              
DIVIDE LATER TONIGHT AS STABILITY INCREASES SOME BUT AM EXPECTING               
THEM TO SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNDOWN ELSEWHERE AND WILL KEEP RED FLAG              
WARNING GOING UNTIL 02Z.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK              
RIDGING COMING IN.                                                              
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:                  
RIDGE STILL EXPECTED TO HANG ON THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST                
SATURDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE UPPER               
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE                    
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT             
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ACROSS PLAINS...               
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE              
HIGH SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE DOESN'T INCREASE UNTIL SATURDAY...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY              
POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK LOW GIVEN LACK              
OF ANY CAPE FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES               
ACROSS PLAINS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE                  
CLOUD COVER.                                                                    
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY               
TIME FRAME. MID RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY                
SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO.  LATEST GFS                 
BEGINNING TO COME AROUND TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...INDICATING              
BEST TIMEFRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY             
MORNING WHEN UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.               
SHOULD SEE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS SOMETIME               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH BEST UPSLOPE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  SOME            
MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AS TO POSITION OF SURFACE LOW AND RESULTANT                 
STRENTH OF UPSLOPE...THOUGH THE WINDOW OF OPORTUNITY BECOMING A BIT             
MORE APPARENT. STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES              
TO ONGOING FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW                
DEGREES MONDAY. LOOKING AT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...STILL A BROAD                
TROUGH EXPECTED OVER AREA...WITH GFS KEEPING SOME QPF THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF ANY UPSLOPE...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY            
ACROSS PLAINS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 16/02Z                
FOR FIREWEATHER ZONES 241..244>247 AND 249.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
D-L/ET                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
352 AM MST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN               
COLORADO ALONG WITH SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS.               
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE             
OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WESTERN UTAH ATTM. WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE               
FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH THE ROCKIES ATTM.  AT               
THE SFC...LOWERING PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF             
THE UPPER SYSTEM WITH MSAS DATA INDICATING 3MB PRESSURE FALLS VCNTY             
BURLINGTON IN THE PAST 3HRS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP ACROSS THE            
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT PLAINS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH BEING              
RECORDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN                
FOOTHILLS OF EL PASO COUNTY WITH GUSTY SW WINDS ALSO BEING REPORTED             
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTS.            
WINDS HAVE ALSO KEPT TEMPS UP THIS MORNING AND RHS DOWN WITH DEW PTS            
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEEN ACROSS THE REGION ATTM.                           
TODAY...WESTERN UTAH SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST              
COLORADO...WITH ASSOCIATED 100KT JET CORE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL           
COLORADO. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS             
IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TIGHTENING H7 GRADIENT ACROSS             
THE EASTERN MTS WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS...ALONG            
WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM...WILL ALLOW THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX            
DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON           
AND SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN              
40-50 MPH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG DOWNSLOPE AND H7 TEMPS                  
BETWEEN -2C AND +2C WOULD SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO MID 70S            
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS A TAD WITH               
BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WITH THIS SAID...WILL LIKELY SEE CRITICAL           
FIRE WX POTENTIAL AND HAVE UPGRADED THE CURRENT FIRE WX WATCH TO A              
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 221...222 AND 225 BELOW 9K FT AND ZONES              
226-237 FROM 10AM TO 8PM MST. AS FOR SNOW POTENTIAL...REGION RADARS             
INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH ATTM ASSOCIATED WITH           
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS                     
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE                  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO              
KEEP BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...WITH CAA              
AND WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE KEPT             
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE                
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE AND WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY. COULD SEE SOME            
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW MTS AND REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
WITH SOME WEAK QG IMPLIED ASCENT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER             
WITH DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WOULD ONLY SEE SOME VIRGA AND GUSTY                 
WINDS.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MODERATING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AS                  
SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH                
PLAINS...ALLOWING FOR WEAK BORA ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST                
TO NORTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.              
MOISTURE QUICKLY SHALLOWS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH                     
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES                      
OVERNIGHT. -MW                                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THU THROUGH TUE)                                                               
...COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE OFFING FOR THIS                    
WEEKEND...                                                                      
THU...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CNTRL                
ROCKIES. LOW AND MIDLEVEL S-SLY WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT WARMER AND                
HIGHER MOISTURE THROUGH NM AND THE SRN PLAINS. MAY ACTUALLY START TO            
SEE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY WELL TO THE S AND E OF CO...MUST BE                  
GETTING CLOSE TO SPRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE                    
READINGS FOR MID-MARCH.                                                         
FRI THROUGH MON...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AND COMPLEX               
GETTING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING (OLD)              
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SAT NGT AND IS                 
PROJECTED TO MOVE EWD ALONG CO/NM BORDER SUN AND MON. THE SYSTEM                
EVOLUTION WILL BE THE KEY TO WHAT KIND OF WEATHER AND HOW SIGNIFICANT           
IT WILL BE. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL S-SW FLOW SHOULD FOCUS THE HIGHEST           
QPF IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS JUST TO THE N.                
THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS DO NOT DO WELL WITH S-SWLY FLOW...HOWEVER...                
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE (E.G. H7-H5 7-8                
C/KM) AND COULD PROMOTE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS. THERE                   
COULD BE SEVERAL MORE FEET OF SNOW IN THE OFFING FOR THE SAN JUAN               
MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. E OF THE CONTDVD... AGAIN IT DEPENDS                
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW. IF THE GFS SOLUTION OF AN OLD CLOSED               
LOW IS CORRECT...THEN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE SHOWERY WITH            
VARYING ELEVATIONS OF SNOW LEVEL DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE               
DIABATIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE INTENSE            
AND COMPACT WITH THE LOW SUN AND MON AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS ALONG                 
THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS COULD BE AN INTERESTING SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY            
IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE FURTHER S AND SLOWER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION           
"BLOBS" COULD FORM ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS FROM THE POTENTIAL MCS               
ACTIVITY. THE MOISTURE RICH "BLOBS" COULD WRAP AROUND THE LOW                   
TOWARDS ERN CO...BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SCENARIO.              
LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH ARE PROGGED TO BE                
MODERATELY-EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...7.0-9.0 C/KM...SO THERE COULD BE A              
COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. ON SUN AFTN/EVE...A POTENTIAL SQUALL               
LINE MAY DEVELOP JUST S OF CO IN WRN TX/WRN OK ALONG THE DRYLINE.               
SFC DEW POINTS MAY APPROACH 40F IN BACA CO...SO SOME OF THIS                    
ACTIVITY COULD FORM IN EXTREME SERN CO. WILL HOLD OFF "LOADING UP"              
THE FORECAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS RIGHT NOW. ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS               
TO THE FORECAST FOR SPATIAL CONSISTENCY.                                        
TUE...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. THE GFS NOW HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW              
DROPPING ON THE CNTRL ROCKIES...WHILE THE ECMWF JUST HAS WLY FLOW.              
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST.  METZE                                          
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS                       
EVENING FOR COZ221-COZ222-COZ225-COZ226-COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-                   
COZ230-COZ231-COZ232-COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236-COZ237.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
233 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...HEADING EAST AT A RAPID CLIP.              
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO HAD RESULTED IN               
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS                   
ACROSS ALL BUT THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DDC CWA HAVE BEEN WELL               
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.                                 
SHORT RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM AND RUC SHOW THE SURFACE               
LOW KICKING OUT INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO                
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONG WINDS WILL              
BE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT TOWARD SUNSET. WITH THAT IN MIND, WILL                  
LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT AND LET IT EXPIRE AT 6 PM.                            
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT, THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE                 
ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 03-04Z AND                 
BE EXITING THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 09Z. WINDS WILL STAY UP                      
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT IN SPITE OF THE CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE 30S, UNLESS A FEW AREAS               
DECOUPLE EVEN MORE TOWARD DAWN. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY BUT              
COOLER. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WHICH                  
CORRESPONDS TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. COULD BE A FEW                       
LOCATIONS BREAKING 60 DEGREES GIVEN THE HIGHER SUN ANGLES OF LATE.              
FRIDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS THICKENS                
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH             
THE DAY. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME HIGHER STRATOCU DECKS DEVELOPING                
AS A FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AREA WILL BE IN PLACE. PREVIOUS                  
FORECAST HAD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF                 
THE CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL SEE               
ANYTHING BEFORE SUNSET SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAY.           
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MAJOR                  
MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A STRONG SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN AND              
CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THERE ARE THE USUAL                
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATION. THE GFS IS COLDER WHILE              
THE EC IS WARMER. THIS IS A TYPICAL MODEL BIAS AND THE TRUTH MAY LIE            
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WARM ADVECTION PRECIP               
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL               
THE SYSTEM PASSES MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP          
MAY PICK UP IN INTENSITY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. THE PRECIP              
TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY SINCE 800-700MB TEMPS WILL              
BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. THERE COULD BE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IF THE              
SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE SFC-850MB LOW VERIFIES. LOWS WILL BE HELD UP           
BY CLOUDS AND WIND WHILE HIGHS WILL BE KEPT DOWN. A SLUG OF COLD AIR            
WILL PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  34  59  29  48 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  31  58  30  51 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  32  59  33  52 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  35  61  31  52 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  33  56  27  46 /   0   0   0   0                                           
P28  37  63  28  49 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ030-KSZ031-                  
KSZ043-KSZ044-KSZ045-KSZ046-KSZ062-KSZ063-KSZ064-KSZ065-KSZ066-                 
KSZ075-KSZ076-KSZ077-KSZ078-KSZ079-KSZ080-KSZ081-KSZ085-KSZ086-                 
KSZ087-KSZ088-KSZ089-KSZ090.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN02/24                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES CHANCES TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG               
WITH TEMPS.                                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MID/UPR LVL RDGING INTO                   
WRN MN BTWN A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND VIGOROUS               
UPSTREAM SHRTWV TROF OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  AT THE SFC...A RDG                
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA THROUGH THE UPR MS VALLEY AHEAD OF LOW PRES              
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MID HIGH CLOUDS WITH 295K-305K                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS SPREAD FROM SRN MN INTO WRN WI.            
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT/CONVERGENT MID/UPR LVL FLOW...QVECTOR DIV AND             
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE UPR GRT LAKES HAS BROUGHT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO             
UPR MI WITH ONLY SCT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWA WITH                   
LINGERING NW FLOW. 17Z KSAW TAMDAR SNDG SHOWED A VERY DRY PRFL WITH             
AN 8C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT THE -12C 880 MB (3K FT) INVERSION.                 
DECENT BNDRY LYR MIXING HAS DROPPED UPSTREAM SFC DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 0            
F.                                                                              
TONIGHT...COLD AIR WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT LAKE CLOUDS AND                  
FLURRIES WITH 900-850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR -10C.                    
INCREASINGLY ACYC FLOW OVER OVER THE WEST WILL ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE              
FOR ANY CLOUDS/--SHSN. SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM/GFS 600-400 MB RH               
SUGGEST INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE WI                 
BORDER. THIS WILL LEAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                    
HOWEVER...AS WINDS VEER NNE AND EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM MIXING/DRYING               
DIMINISH...SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP FROM N CNTRL               
UPR MI EASTWARD.                                                                
THU...AS THE PLAINS SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD INDIANA...THE MANITOBA RDG             
WILL BUILD INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY WITH LOW LVL WINDS GRADUALLY                  
BACKING TO THE NORTH. ACYC FLOW AND 900-850 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -12C               
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT LITTLE MORE THAN SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF             
FLURRIES OVER THE NORTH HALF. ONLY SLGT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED               
NEAR MNM AS THE MDLS WERE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING BULK OF PCPN                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES/PLAINS MID LVL SHRTWV WELL S OF THE CWA.            
THU NIGHT...WEAK CAA WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR AS THE HIGH              
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. GIVEN CONTINUING ACYC LOW LVL INTO            
THE AREA WITH QG FORCING FROM WRN ONTARIO H5 LOW REMAINING N OF LK              
SUPERIOR...FCST LEANED TOWARD NAM/UKMET/ECMWF SCENARIO WHICH                    
SUGGESTS LOWER INVERSION HGTS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPS THAN THE            
GFS. SO...ONLY LOWER END POPS WERE MENTIONED OVER THE NORTH.                    
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...MID MARCH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING AND                       
PERSISTENT DRY PRFL AND INVERSION HGTS NO MORE THAN NEAR 3K-4K FT               
WILL LIMIT LES CHANCES EVEN AS 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO NEAR -14C. LAKE             
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT                
EXCEPT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS OVER THE SOUTH.                                     
SAT-WED...GLBL MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT BLOCKING                  
PATTERN WILL ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT WITH THE SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE            
UPR LAKES THROUGH MON KEEPING FLOW OF VERY DRY AIR GOING FROM                   
ONTARIO. REMAINING LES SHOULD FADE SAT AS THE H8 TROF SHIFTS TO THE             
EAST. MDLS SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDWEEK BUT EFFECTS ON             
WEATHER OVER UPR MI WILL BE MINIMAL. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL                   
MOISTURE AND SHRTWV ENERGY AROUND ERN CANADA TROF WAS DELAYED TIL               
WED...PER GFS TRENDS AND 00Z GFS ENS MEAN.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
307 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY VISIBLE ON AFTERNOON WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE                  
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS AND NAM               
ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN DRIVING THE RELATED 700MB LOW ACROSS                 
MN/IA...WITH SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS                 
PLACES THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.             
WHILE DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE INITIATES BY                   
00Z...ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR ADVECTION                    
PROCESSES TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE SATURATION FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS            
IS SUPPORTED BY RUC CROSS SECTIONS AND BUFKIT PROFILES WHICH EXHIBIT            
A DRY WEDGE AROUND 850MB UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE               
DELAYED THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. ONCE SATURATION            
OCCURS...A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT            
IS FORECAST ON THE 290K SURFACE...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE            
AROUND 3 J/KG. ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION FROM DECENT Q VECTOR                     
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS /6-8 INCHES/ GENERALLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA RIVER               
VALLEY FROM GRANITE FALLS TO MANKATO. AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF                  
DRAMATICALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WARNING AREA. WILL ALSO             
HAVE SOME BRISK WINDS...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING MAY OCCUR. THE LOW                  
SHIFTS EAST/SOUTH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO ONLY HAVE FLURRIES                 
MENTIONED THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.                                
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY                        
NIGHT...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CHILLY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY                
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONGER TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                  
UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A                
DEEP CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER            
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. ECMWF...CNDN...UKMET...OPERATIONAL GFS AND             
GFS ENSEMBLE...ALL SHOW THE SW SYSTEM AS ONLY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE            
PLAINS...WITH SHARP RIDGING ACROSS MN/WI ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE UK            
AND CNDN MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER.  WE MIGHT EVEN WIND UP ON THE              
NORTHERN FRINGE OF PRECIPITATION AS THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE               
SHORT WAVE MIGHT TRAVEL MOSTLY EAST AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE             
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST                   
     THURSDAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-                
     FARIBAULT-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-                
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-                 
     SIBLEY-SWIFT-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW  MEDICINE            
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
     THURSDAY FOR FREEBORN-GOODHUE-STEELE COUNTIES.                             
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST                    
     THURSDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST.                     
     CROIX COUNTIES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LS/TDK                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
337 AM MST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...                                          
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY DEALING WITH A MODERATELY STRONG                
WAVE...BUT FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO AREA. LATEST             
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH A                  
NICE PLUME OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO JUST NOW PUSHING INTO               
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. RADAR RETURNS SHOWING BULK OF RETURNS IN                     
EASTERN IDAHO AS WELL. FOR FORECAST...INITIALLY WEIGHED HEAVILY ON              
00Z GFS...WHICH WAS MUCH WETTER AND STRONGER THAN 00Z NAM. THIS                 
SCENARIO TAKES 700 MB LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A                        
QUICK...BUT GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN                        
ZONES...WITH BILLINGS RECEIVING SOME MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH.                     
HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS OF RUC...NAM AND GFS SHOWING WAVE REALLY                  
WRAPPING UP AND TURNING NEGATIVE...WITH NAM ACTUALLY DRY SLOTTING               
SOUTHEAST ZONES...PUSHING BEST MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.                 
ALSO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF AT 500 MB IN                
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. NEW 06Z GFS JUST IN AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND              
OF THE NEW NAM AND IT'S OLD SELF WHICH SEEMS TO BE BEST SOLUTION.               
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL BE SPREADING HIGHER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND               
WEST AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH.                   
LOOKING AT LATEST TIME HEIGHTS WILL BE A ABOUT 6 HOURS OF MODERATE              
LIFT IN WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES STARTING LATER THIS MORNING. TIME                
HEIGHTS FOR BILLINGS AREA SHOWING GOOD LIFT AND IN GOOD DENDRITIC               
LAYER...SO THINK 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IN EASTERN ZONES...SAME                  
SCENARIO...BUT SYSTEM HANGS ON A BIT LONGER INTO EARLY THIS                     
EVENING...POSSIBLY PICKING UP ANOTHER INCH THERE. BIG HORN ALSO                 
LOOK TO GET A GOOD SHOT OF NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND THINK              
SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WILL GO AHEAD AND                
PUSH OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING               
AREA FOR TODAY...INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE EAST FOR A GENERAL              
2 TO 4 INCH ACCCUMULATION OF SNOW.                                              
SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.                             
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. EASTERLY              
FLOW HANGS ON IN THE EAST FOR COOL TEMPERATURES THERE...BUT SOME                
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WEST AND CENTRAL FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN               
THE 40S. RASCH                                                                  
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...                           
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND COOL. ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER                   
EVOLUTION THAN GFS AND SYSTEM MAY STILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH THAN                  
ADVERTISED...BUT CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH FOR PCPN INTO OUR AREA AS                
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND GOOD SOUTHEAST MOISTURE FETCH SET UP OVER                   
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST                
WEEKEND EXCEPT WITH BETTER MOISTURE WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW                
OVER MUCH OF AREA AND SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.                           
BASED ON THIS...BOOSTED POPS TO LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST ZONES SATURDAY              
AND LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS AS FEEL MERCURY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME                
MAKING HEADWAY IN MOST AREAS. INITIAL WAVE PROGGED TO HIT SATURDAY.             
SECOND WAVE LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY EASTERN ZONES                  
WITH LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING INBETWEEN.                                           
GFS INCONSISTENT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ECMWF LINGERS                   
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WARY                  
THAT PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW COULD LAST LONGER. NEXT FEW SHIFTS WILL              
NEED TO WATCH THIS TREND AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. TESAR                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WAS APPROACHING SOUTHERN MT EARLY THIS MORNING.          
THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AREAS OF SNOW INTO THE CRAZY/BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA         
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN MAINLY 12Z AND 18Z AND INTO THE BIG HORNS                     
VICINITY FROM 15Z TO 00Z. THUS CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL               
DETERIORATE TO LIFR/IFR THRU THE MORNING AND IMPROVE FROM WEST TO               
EAST IN THE EVENING.                                                            
AS FOR THE PLAINS...RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLY THE               
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES AFTER 15Z TODAY SPREADING EASTWARD AND                
THEN ENDING IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS OF                      
MVFR/IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN DOWN               
TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE                 
BETWEEN KBIL AND KSHR AND OVER SE MT LATER TODAY.                               
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE                     
RAPIDLY. BE SURE TO CHECK LOCAL TAF AND TWEB PRODUCTS FOR                       
DETAILS. TESAR                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 035 021/049 022/046 024/037 020/034 021/038 022/041                         
    8/O 00/B    00/B    25/O    53/S    42/J    20/B                            
LVM 038 020/048 018/045 021/038 018/037 017/039 017/042                         
    4/S 00/B    00/B    35/S    54/S    43/J    30/B                            
HDN 034 019/050 019/048 023/039 018/035 018/038 020/042                         
    9/O 10/B    00/B    25/O    53/S    42/J    20/B                            
MLS 035 019/043 019/041 022/036 018/032 018/036 019/039                         
    8/S 60/B    00/B    25/S    43/S    32/J    20/B                            
4BQ 034 015/042 016/043 023/032 019/035 019/036 019/038                         
    +/S 30/B    00/B    36/S    55/S    52/J    20/E                            
BHK 030 017/034 013/031 019/029 014/027 017/031 016/033                         
    8/S 60/B    00/N    24/S    44/S    42/J    20/E                            
SHR 034 013/045 013/043 024/037 021/035 015/037 017/041                         
    +/S 00/B    00/B    36/O    55/S    53/J    30/B                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5              
      PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES                                           
      29>31-34-35-38-39-42-56>58-66.                                            
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO               
      11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.                             
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5              
      PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 99.                                        
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST                 
      THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 98.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                 
948 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CURRENT THICKNESSES AND RUC INDICATE              
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THEN A CURRENT FCST. WILL LOWER MAXES              
A LITTLE. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW AND LOOK GOOD IN CURRENT FCST.                
WINDS LOOK GOOD LOOKING AT CURRENT SOUNDINGS AND MIX DOWN OF                    
STRONGER WINDS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 219 AM EST WED MAR 15 2006/                                            
PUBLIC...DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW               
DEWPOINTS GIVES THE FORECAST AREA...MINUS THE OUTER BANKS...                    
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE              
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS JUSTIFIES CONTINUING THE RED FLAG WARNING. THE             
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES TODAY WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST            
COAST ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT             
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH              
ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND             
TIME SECTIONS SHOW VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS SO I REMOVED THE                  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND              
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA                  
EXTENDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW AND              
TRACK IT ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY. SINCE THIS IS NEARLY A WEEK                
AWAY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT POPS NEXT WEEK AS IS.           
AVIATION...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NW EXPECT VFR                    
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE MID               
20S THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.                                                  
MARINE...SURGE OF COLDER AIR CONTINUES OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS                 
MRNG BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS              
APPEAR TO HAVE CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WILL USE A MIX OF NAM              
AND GFS WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRI WITH WW3 WAVE GUIDANCE LOOKING                  
REASONABLE. WILL EXTEND SCA FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INTO                 
LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY BUOY 41025 SHOWING HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS               
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE.                 
GIVEN OFFSHORE WINDS NEAR SHORE SEAS ARE GOING TO BE A BIT LESS                 
THAN THOSE BEHIND A FEW MILES SO WILL NEED TO ADD NEAR SHORE                    
WORDING SOME AREAS.                                                             
AS HIGH SLIPS OVER THE RGN THURSDAY WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS                 
AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ALL AREAS. MODELS SHOW NEXT SYSTEM MOVING                 
THROUGH QUICKLY FRI WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS JUST AHEAD               
OF SYSTEM THEN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR EARLY SAT. DUE TO                  
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE TIME FOR SEAS TO BUILD               
AS MUCH AS SCA WINDS WOULD NORMALLY ALLOW. HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME                
ADJUSTMENTS TO WW3 GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THIS. SURGE BEHIND THE                   
SYSTEM LASTS THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN A SECONDARY NRLY SURGE                      
DEVELOPS FOR SUN AS HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.                                 
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NC...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098 FROM 9             
     AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130 UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY.                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ135 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.                     
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-156 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098 UNTIL              
     6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130 UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY.                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ135 UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.                     
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-156 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154 UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.                   
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 7 PM WEDNESDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
912 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...NARROW BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST                
ND AS FAR NORTH AS JAMESTOWN/VALLEY CITY AND THROUGH FFM AND OTTER              
TAIL COUNTY MN BUT NOT YET QUITE TO FARGO. IT IS ONLY 15-20 MILES               
FROM FARGO BUT SYSTEM IS ENTRAINING VERY DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH                 
AND THEY MAY ONLY GET A SKIFF. A COUPLE OF INCHES HAS APPARENTLY                
BEEN THE MAX SNOWFALL UNDERNEATH THE SNOW BAND BUT THERE MAY BE A               
COUPLE MORE WHERE THE BAND DRIFTS TO. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...THE              
DRY AIR WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED ITS MENTION              
FROM FORECASTS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 285K SURFACE WILL CONTINUE              
ACROSS SOUTH OF FARGO THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT EASILY THE BEST LIFT                
HAS ALREADY MOVED SOUTH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENCED BY THE BETTER                 
RETURNS DEVELOPING OVER ROBERTS COUNTY SD. WARM ADVECTION AND                   
CLOUDS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE                
20S THERE (ALONG WITH SOME SERIOUS TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS) BUT              
HCO IS ALREADY APPROACHING ZERO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS IN              
UPDATE AND RELIED ON RUC QUITE A BIT.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                  
BISMARCK ND)                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CURRENT STORM SYSTEM...LOW                      
PRESSURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO WESTERN                      
NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND DEVELOP                          
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEBRASKA/KANSAS. TODAY'S MODELS ARE KEEPING                  
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S                  
MODELS...BUT FEEL SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WILL GET SNOW              
ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES. GFS MODEL IS NOT AS                      
AGGRESSIVE AS THE NAM WITH BRINGING THE PRECIPITATION                           
NORTHWARD..BUT BOTH MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFTING TONIGHT AND              
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RAPIDLY                  
LOWERING TO VALUES OF 10 AND 20 MB AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SURROUNDING               
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...AND THINK                  
THAT AS TIME PROGRESSES TONIGHT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REACH                       
SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND. THINK MOST OF               
THE ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA              
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AFTER DAYBREAK THE                   
STORM CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IOWA...MOVING TO ILLINOIS BY                
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA ON THE DRY SIDE.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE REGION IS DOMINATED BY AN                   
ARCTIC/CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW                
MOVING GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY BUT                 
ON THE COLD SIDE.                                                               
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                      
ON SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                   
BETWEEN THE EXITING HUDSON BAY LOW TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING                 
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM MOVES               
OVER THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SOUTHERN            
PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF                    
SNOWFALL. THE MODELS MOVE THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND HINTS THAT THE CANADIAN                 
SURFACE HIGH MAY KEEP THE REGION OUT OF THE PATH OF MOST                        
PRECIPITATION. KEPT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1014 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL MESONET SITES                    
ALREADY GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH. PROFILERS SHOWING 50 KT WINDS ABOVE               
SFC IN WESTERN OK THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOWING AREA OF HIGHER                   
WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND FURTHER SOUTH. WITH MIXING                    
EXPECT WINDS TO BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED IN SOME                    
AREAS... SO HAVE EXPANDED WIND ADVISORY SOUTH AND EAST TO INCLUDE               
SW OK AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK.                                                  
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ENTIRE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE                     
LOWERED DEWPTS A FEW DEGREES TODAY BY USING RUC NUMBERS WHICH WILL              
HAVE MINIMUM RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. TEMPS               
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK...EXCEPT FOR SE WHERE HAVE RAISED A FEW                     
DEGREES. WILL SEND UPDATES TO USUAL PRODUCTS AND WIND ADVSY/RED                 
FLAG WARNING AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.                                               
MAXWELL                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 345 AM CST WED MAR 15 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WIND WILL BE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW                          
DEEPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING                    
SYSTEM. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST PART FA WHERE                    
MIXING WINDS WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE               
WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR ENTIRE FA. RUC AND NAM SURFACE DEWPOINTS              
DIFFER BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BY 18Z OVER WESTERN 2/3RDS OF AREA AND               
EXPECT RUC MAY BE CLOSER TO WHAT OCCURS. THEREFORE...HUMIDITY                   
LEVELS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT SEEM LIKELY.                                      
SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY PART OF THURSDAY. COULD SEE             
RAIN/ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY                    
NEAR ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH BEST CHANCES FOR               
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING                 
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO OVERALL                
FORECAST DAY 5-7. WILL NOT INTRODUCE WINTER PRECIP AT THIS TIME                 
BUT COULD SEE SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST DURING THE                 
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MAIN SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE                         
SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  43  65  36 /   0   0  10  10                              
HOBART OK         71  43  66  36 /   0   0  10  10                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  45  69  38 /  10  10  10  10                              
GAGE OK           71  35  61  31 /   0   0  10  10                              
PONCA CITY OK     69  40  64  31 /   0   0  10  10                              
DURANT OK         70  53  69  40 /  10  20  20  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-            
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-                   
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ018-OKZ023-             
     OKZ024-OKZ027-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038.                   
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ014-OKZ015-                   
     OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021-OKZ022.                                               
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/23                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
815 PM MST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW OVER CENTRAL NE WITH                 
INVERTED TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST MT. VIGOROUS COMPACT SHORTWAVE                   
WINDING UP OVER KIEN. DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WELL                
DEFINED WITH NICE BURST OF SNOW FALLING.                                        
JUST GOT A REPORT OF THUNDERSNOW NEAR CUSTER...WITH LIGHTNING                   
DETECTION NETWORK PICKING UP. DON/T EXPECT MENTIONABLE THUNDERSNOW              
WITH UPDATE...BUT SNOW IS DEFINITELY CONVECTIVE LOOKING PER RADAR               
RETURNS.                                                                        
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW            
TO AND END FROM WEST TO EAST. 00Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON              
THINGS...WHERE THE 12Z/18Z MODELS HAD SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH.                     
UPDATE ALREADY OUT TO GO CATEGORICAL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND SHIFT               
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MST WED MAR 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES MAIN CENTER OF LOW                
PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO EDGING EASTWARD...WITH DEEP                    
INVERTED TROF TO THE NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH              
DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL WAVE               
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CWFA. AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS INDICATED ON                
RADAR CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AS AFOREMENTIONED                
WAVE MOVES IN. FOR TONIGHT AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN               
AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS IT DOES...UPPER WAVE              
WILL BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.               
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PTNS OF CWFA WITH                     
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES. ALSO HAVE PUT SOME 3 INCH                  
AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT              
IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS MOMENT IS THAT            
LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE PULLED THE CLOSING LOW SOMEWHAT SOUTH.              
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT TRENDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY               
HAVE TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNT. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM              
TO BE QUICK MOVING...AND BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW               
MORNING. EXPECT QUIET WEATHER AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA             
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS                 
POSED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY SATURDAY...DEEP UPPER                
TROF MOVES WELL INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SWITCHING FLOW TO THE                    
SOUTHWEST AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR MULTIPLE WAVES TO PUSH ACROSS.               
HAVE UPPED POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR MUCH OF CWFA FOR SAT INTO SAT            
NIGHT.                                                                          
EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE                
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.                
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS TRACK FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN              
WEST TO THE PLAINS...BUT RECENT RUNS OF GFS HAVE TRENDED THE SYSTEM             
A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO ULTIMATELY PANS                   
OUT...THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SEE SOME PCPN AS WEAKER                        
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SO...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW            
GOING IN THE EXTENDED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH BETTER                 
CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS LIKELY BEING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL              
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER             
20S AND 30S. SOME MILDER WX IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF              
NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO                
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACHES.            
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF -SHRASN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS              
AFT ACROSS TWEB ROUTES 259 AND 285...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY                    
EVENING. SOME ISOLATED -TSRA HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS ROUTE 285               
THIS AFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS TWEB ROUTES                       
258...260...AND 315 EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS AND                      
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT KGCC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND              
AT KRAP AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED AT EACH LOCATION THRU             
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING AROUND 06Z.                           
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
336 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT                                           
MAIN EFFORT THIS MORNING OBVIOUSLY DEVOTED TO IMPENDING WINTER                  
STORM.  UPSTREAM PCPN AND OBS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE OVERNIGHT...BUT                
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT SYS IS BEGINNING TO COME                      
TOGETHER.  06Z/00Z RUC/GFS RUNS LOOK GOOD AND ARE FAVORED BASED ON              
CURRENT PLACEMENT OF PCPN.  SHRT WV DROPPING DOWN MO RIVER                      
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG QG FORCING IN DEF ZN.  RECENT RUC ANLYS STILL             
SHOWS MUCAPES UP TO 100 J/KG FEEDING DEF ZN WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY               
TEXTURE OF RADAR ECHOES.  REFLECTIVITY WOULD ALSO SUGGEST SLEET                 
MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES TIL SOUNDINGS CRASH TO WET BULB.  POTENT               
ISENT LIFT DROVE BAND OF LGT RAIN INTO IA OVERNIGHT AND IS IN THE               
PROCESS OF MERGING WITH DEF ZN.                                                 
06Z RUC RAPIDLY BREAKS OUT PCPN 12-15Z AND CIG TRENDS UPSTREAM                  
SUPPORT THAT THINKING.  HAVE TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS BACK SOMEWHAT                 
SINCE LITTLE WILL HAVE OCCURRED BY 12Z...BUT STILL HAVE 5-6 INCHES              
IN WARNING AREA LOOSELY BASED ON HPC QPF AND 12:1 RATIOS SUGGESTED              
BY COBB OUTPUT.  1-4 IN ADVISORY AREA. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES                  
BEYOND NOT STARTING TIL 6AM.  THIS MAY BE A TAD TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH             
DURATION SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT CERTAINLY EXPECT 3-6 HOURS OF               
CONVECTIVE OR NEAR CONVECTIVE SNOWS AND RATES >1"/HR AT TIMES WITH              
RATIOS HIGHER FOR MOMENTS.  DENDRITIC FORCING IN 300K SFC OR AROUND             
600MB VERY IMPRESSIVE THROUGH 18Z WITH KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC              
FORCING MECHANISMS ALL COMING TOGETHER.  STILL EXPECT BLOWING AND               
DRIFTING TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC PUSH AND               
INCREASED MSLP GRADIENT BY AFTERNOON.                                           
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PCPN TYPE TOO.  MODELS UNDERESTIMATED                 
DEPTH OF SFC LOW AT 06Z AND AMOUNT OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF SYS.  05Z               
MDCRS SOUNDING AT KDSM ABOUT 2-3C WARMER THAN MODELS WITH WARM LYR              
UP TO 8C.  THUS HAVE PUSHED RAIN/SNOW LINE A BIT FARTHER                        
N...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND ALSO ADDED SLEET AS MENTIONED            
EARLIER.  SYS SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVE WITH LITTLE OR NO              
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN LGT SNOW OR FLURRIES AFTER 00Z.                           
FEEL GUIDANCE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY...ESPECIALLY SRN PORTIONS                  
CLOSER TO WARM SECTION...SO HAVE GONE ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE THERE.             
LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT.  BY TOMORROW WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND            
NEAR SNOW COVER...BUT BOOSTED TO AT OR ABOVE WARMEST GUIDANCE S AS              
HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY.  SIMILAR THINKING FOR HIGHS SAT.                    
.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH WED                                                    
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD...BUT DID BOOST POPS FARTHER              
THROUGH CHANCE CATEGORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  ECMWF/GFS/UKMET               
SIMILAR WITH TRACK BUT FAVORED SLOWER EURO SOLUTIONS WITH H5 LOW                
CLOSED.  THIS EVENT WINDOW WILL NEED TO BE EXAMINED MORE CLOSELY BY             
DAY SHIFT AND WILL ADD MENTION OF POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW              
TO HWO.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WX ADVISORY 6AM-6PM FOR                                                  
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-POCAHONTAS-TAMA-WEBSTER.                                 
WINTER STORM WARNING 6AM-6PM FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO                 
GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO                              
ALTO-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
346 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                      
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND NEAR                 
NORTH EDGE OF MAX 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST SOMEWHAT            
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ALSO SAGGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH            
SINCE 06Z. LAPS STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOWING 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM THIS                
BAND...AND SEEMS TO BE CLOSE BASED ON REPORTS WE WERE RECEIVING AT              
AROUND MIDNIGHT. 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOWING THAT THIS FORCING REMAINS              
CLOSE TO THE SAME AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING AND THEN                 
SHIFTS SOUTH DURING MID MORNING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER..VORT             
MAY OVER NE NEB AREA WILL ENHANCE FORCING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS            
MORNING...AND THIS LINGERS INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD KICK UP                 
MORE OVER SOUTHERN MN AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.               
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING WITH SAME GENERAL TIME FRAME TODAY..BUT             
EXTEND INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD               
WORK OUT OK. AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH SNOW            
YET BUT THIS SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS              
AROUND MSP AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THOUGH IF ANOTHER BAND                     
DEVELOPS. A BIT OF A SUSPECT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN TERMS OF              
REACHING WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO SECONDARY                   
FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER             
TONIGHT SHOULD BLOW CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS. DRIER AIR               
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW SHOULD HELP TO DROP               
MID TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                       
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
LATEST GFS...00Z VERSION...CONTINUES PREVIOUS TREND OF A VERY BLOCKY            
PATTERN WITH THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND            
A PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POKING DOWN INTO MN FROM                   
CANADA. TRIMMED BACK THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO JUST WESTERN AND              
SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THAT MAY STILL BE                 
TOO MUCH. 00Z MEX TEMPERATURES DEPICT BELOW NORMAL VALUES...AND                 
GIVEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN FROM THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS             
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-BROWN-CARVER-          
     CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-                 
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-               
     SWIFT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                       
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE                
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-MARTIN-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-                
     WATONWAN COUNTY(IES).                                                      
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHIPPEWA-           
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX COUNTY(IES).                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/MTF/RJN                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
407 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR                    
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST                  
KANSAS THAT WILL TRACK EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA               
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE             
TODAY. LOCAL WIND PROFILERS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND                   
MISSISSIPPI SHOW THE 80H FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED            
TO 30-40KTS. THIS HAS LED TO AN INCREASED MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS OUR             
CWA THIS MORNING INCLUDING A FEW RETURNS ON LOCAL RADARS IN THE SW              
THAT ARE LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUNDS. OUR SFC DEW POINTS HAVE               
BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE WITH SITES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 STILL IN THE               
MID 30S. HAVE BACKED OFF ANY POPS IN THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. LIGHT            
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.                    
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION             
OF SOME FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FEW ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND                  
PARISHES BEFORE NOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR                   
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. AN NARROW POOL OF             
DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT JET STREAK MOVES            
OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO            
A BRIEF TIME PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE A              
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA               
PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN             
WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT             
MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR JACKSON AT MIDNIGHT AND            
SOUTH OF HATTIESBURG BY THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE            
RAIN WILL FALL SOUTH OF I-20 TODAY AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE                 
THERE. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS EDGING INTO               
OUR REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CANADA NOSES               
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY               
BUT RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. /22/                                     
COLD...WET WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKES OVER             
SAT MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MON. WE WILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP THE                
COLUMN SOME FIRST AND THAT WILL TAKE ALL DAY FRIDAY AND INTO                    
SATURDAY SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP UNTIL                
LATE SAT MORNING OR EVEN AFTER MIDDAY BUT ONCE IT STARTS IT COULD BE            
A LONG TIME UNTIL THE RAIN COMPLETELY ENDS. IT WILL START OF AS SHRA            
AND LAST LIKE THAT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN BUT BY SUN AFTERNOON             
THERE MAY BE SOME SCT EMBEDDED TSRA AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALL CHANGE MON AS TSRA WILL BE MORE               
WIDESPREAD AND THE RAIN MAY GETS HEAVIER AND STARTS TO ACCUMULATE               
POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SEVERE                 
STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE.                                                         
GFS CONTINUES TO COME MORE INLINE WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF                
MONDAY'S SYSTEM. STILL A VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN MAKER WITH THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. H5 LOW DIGS INTO THE STHRN PLAINS AND            
GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED MON WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM TX THROUGH             
AR AND INTO TN/KY. GFS STILL SHOWING LL FLOW OF 45-55KTS BRINING IN             
H85 THETA E AIR OF 330K+ (UP TO 334K). VERY GOOD ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS OF -3.  WIND FIELD IS IMPRESSIVE AND                
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK COUPLED            
JET FEATURE OVER ESTRN MS BY 00Z TUE WITH A 120KT+ JET CORE MOVING              
THROUGH NRTHN LA AND STHRN AR. 60 KT H5 FLOW INCREASING TO AS HIGH              
AS 100 KTS PUSHING INTO THE CWA LATE MON. 65 TO 80 KTS H7 BRINGING              
IN ANOTHER STRONG DRY PUNCH AND MENTIONED EARLIER A LL JET OF 45 TO             
55 KTS SETTING UP OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF H5              
LOW AND SFC LOW HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PAST.             
DEEP MOISTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH PWS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2" MON.               
THE PROBLEM MAY BE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN. GFS            
DOES SHOW LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS AND MAYBE MID 60S DEWPOINTS PUSHING                
INTO THE AREA. ALSO WITH RAIN GOING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
MON THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND THIS               
WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM HEATING UP DURING THE DAY HINDERING                     
DESTABILIZATION. I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO THE THREAT OF            
BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT THE MAIN THREAT                 
LOOKS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS OF RIGHT NOW.                                    
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE MON EARLY TUE...EXPECT DRIER               
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SPEAKING OF TEMPS I AM                
VERY CONFUSED WITH THE GUIDANCE TEMPS. RIGHT NOW THE MEX GUIDANCE               
SEEMS TO WARM COMPARED TO THE LL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TUE.  LOOKING AT            
CLIMATE STATISTICS FOR OUR AREA...IN MID MARCH WITH H85 AND H925                
TEMPS OF LESS THAN 2C(GFS SHOWING H85 TEMPS DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY TO AS LOW AS -3C WHILE H925 TEMPS DROP TO -3/-4C) WE HAVE A VERY            
HARD TIME GETTING ABV THE UPPER 50S. THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT                 
THESE LL TEMPS ARE A GOOD BIT LOWER THAN 2C AND THIS MAKES IT HARD              
FOR US TO GET TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. I HAVE A HARD TIME GOING 10             
DEGREES OR MORE AWAY FROM GUIDANCE BUT I AM GOING TO GO A GOOD BIT              
COOLER ATLEAST 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN SOME              
LOCATIONS. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEFORE               
MAKING FINAL ADJUSTMENTS. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL                   
ACTUALLY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS COOLING THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
TEMPS REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT DO START TO MODERATE A LITTLE            
BY WEEKS END. ALSO WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI BUT THE 3 DAYS              
OF DRY WEATHER MAY BE WELCOME FOR THE AREA TO DRY FROM THIS WEEKENDS            
DELUGE. /CAB/                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000FT ARE             
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS RAIN AND             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRIEF            
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL            
BE GREATEST SOUTH INTERSTATE 20 TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS               
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2-3KFT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z FRI AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  /22/                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       65  48  65  40 /  52  30   3   3                                  
MERIDIAN      66  48  65  38 /  54  35   3   1                                  
VICKSBURG     65  48  65  43 /  48  22   3   7                                  
HATTIESBURG   68  54  70  43 /  64  32   4   4                                  
NATCHEZ       65  50  65  44 /  65  26   3   7                                  
GREENVILLE    65  43  63  39 /  23  11   3  17                                  
GREENWOOD     64  43  62  39 /  25  15   3  11                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/24                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1100 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 15Z THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NE MO...AND THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS             
WERE LOCATED ALMOST DUE E OVER THE IL/IN BORDER. THIS IS ENCOURAGING            
FOR THE SNOW ADVY...AS THIS SUGGESTS A MORE EWD TRACK OF THE LOW                
COMPARED TO LATEST GFS/NAM/NAMX PROGS OF A SEWD TRACK. RADAR                    
SUGGESTS SOME FGEN BANDING NEAR THE SRN WI STATE LINE...WITH SEVERAL            
METAR SITES REPORTING 1/2SM OR LESS. RUC H6 FGEN PROGS AGREE WELL               
WITH CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY...AND THIS AREA SHIFTS E TO FAR SRN LWR              
BY THIS AFTN. LOCAL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER TROP THIS                  
MORNING...BUT THIS COULD HELP WET BULB COOLING EFFECTS LATER THIS               
EVENING AND KEEP PCPN AS SN WHEN BETTER FGEN WORKS E INTO THE AREA.             
AFTER COORDINATION WITH IWX...HAVE LOWERED SN AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT            
WE ARE KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING. TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE                  
LATER...SO HAVE WORDED THIS IN THE UPDATED WSW. WILL UPDATE ZONES               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
MARINE - HAVE UPDATED THE WIND GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT                    
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NAM WINDS. THIS PUSHES WAVES UP TO AROUND 4 FT BY             
10Z FRI MORNING. AS THIS IS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON A             
SCA FOR NOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM FRI FOR             
OTTAWA...ALLEGAN...BARRY...VAN BUREN...CALHOUN AND KALAMAZOO                    
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
300 PM MST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN TODAY.  FIRST IS THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  VERY LITTLE GOING ON                 
UPSTREAM OF US AT THIS POINT IN TIME ALTHOUGH THE RUC QG ANALYSES               
HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENT...ALBEIT WEAK...ASCENT OVER THE GREAT              
BASIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  UNFORTUNATELY THIS ASCENT IS LIFTING                
SOME PRETTY DRY AIR...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS WINTER...SO             
EXPECT ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z                   
FRIDAY.  ONCE ANYTHING THAT DOES GET GOING UP THERE STARTS IT SHOULD            
NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS NOT TERRIBLY               
FAVORABLE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO GOOD AND            
THE QG LIFT REMAINS RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE DAY.  ALL OF THESE              
IDEAS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST LOCAL MM5 RUN SHOWING ONLY SCANT              
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE OTHER ITEM IS THE COLD             
AIR LURKING ABOUT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL OOZE               
INTO THE CWA.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE                   
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BUT ITS SHALLOWNESS WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR            
IT MAKING IT UP THE HILL INTO THE DENVER AREA.  WITH THAT IN MIND               
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TOMORROW.               
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON EVOLUTION OF AN                
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MODEL             
RUNS FROM 12Z CONTINUED THE PRIOR TREND OF AN ELONGATED...NEGATIVELY            
TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEW MEXICO TO WASHINGTON BY                 
SUNDAY EVENING.  SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS CONTINUED WITH A SURFACE             
LOW OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER CANADA.                 
THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN WOULD ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD            
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO ERN CO.  WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH            
AND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT IS                    
BECOMING CLEAR THAT A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL DEVELOP                
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS AT SOME POINT.  THE               
18Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TO HAVE LESS ELONGATION            
TO IT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN              
COLORADO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND                
THROUGH TOMORROW...HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND MAY            
BECOME NECESSARY.  FOR NOW...WILL JUST STICK WITH PROBABILITY OF                
PRECIPITATION VALUES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.                                    
BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES...OR POSSIBLY CUTS OFF...SATURDAY SHOULD              
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY            
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.  ON THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER              
AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST.  LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT            
SHOW THE MAIN COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT MOS            
GUIDANCE VALUES SHOW THE INITIAL COOLING ARRIVING SATURDAY.  IF THE             
COOLER AIR MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE             
OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WON'T BE TOO FAR BEHIND.                               
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN WINDING                
DOWN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...DRIER             
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST              
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ET/KDRBY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
320 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE W COAST...WHICH IS             
ALREADY STARTING TO INDUCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN            
W. LOCALLY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN IA IS HELPING TO INDUCE                
FGEN NEAR A WELL DEFINED SNOWBAND EXTENDING FROM ERN IA...THROUGH               
NRN IL...AND INTO NRN IN. IFR AND LIFR VSBYS IN SN WERE BEING                   
REPORTED UNDER THIS BAND.                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MAIN CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH             
THERE IS GOOD SN FALLING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE BAND...WARM SURFACE             
TEMPERATURES AND PHONE REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOTHING HAS THE CHANCE             
TO STICK. FURTHERMORE...RUC PROGS SHOW BEST FGEN WILL PUSH E AND                
WEAKEN BY 00Z AS THE H8 LOW OPENS UP. SO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT             
WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORY.                                                      
OTHERWISE...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CWFA              
BEING BETWEEN SYSTEMS...NAMELY A DEEP APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE               
WRN USA AND A BROAD STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK                 
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHARP RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM AND DEEP SUBSIDENT             
NWLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.                                 
TONIGHT - WILL DROP THE ADVISORY AND GO CLOSER TO 1-3 INCH TOTALS.              
FRIDAY - HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SILENT AS LOW SFC-H8 DELTA T AND LOW              
MEAN RH VALUES WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE KEEP LAKE EFFECT NEGLIGIBLE.               
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT - NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.                     
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BLOCKING CONTINUES AT 500MB ACROSS THE NORTH            
PACIFIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOWERING OF HEIGHTS FROM THE ALEUTIANS                
EAST THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD HEIGHTS                
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN PACIFIC...WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC              
BLOCK RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN               
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH KEEPING AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW               
WEST OF THE CONUS...AND SLIDE SOUTH. EXTREME EASTERN QUEBEC MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF             
THE TWO MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALLOW BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM              
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA...SASKATCHEWAN...AND MANITOBA EXTENDING            
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS. LATE WEEKEND PROPAGATION OF JET                    
ALONG WEST COAST POINTS DUE S...WHICH WILL HELP DIG 500MB LOW                   
OFFSHORE OF CA. SW CONUS JET INCREASES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERN             
STREAM LOW QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
EXPECT THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LWR                 
MI...HOWEVER A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN              
QUEBEC MAY FUNNEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO LWR MI. WEAK RETURN FLOW             
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                
850MB TEMPS COOL TO -10 TO -13 DEG C THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH LGT NW              
FLOW...SCT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT TEMPS TO                
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORM.                                                
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL                     
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 3 AM FRI THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: TJT                                                                 
LONG TERM: BEACHLER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACRS               
THE SCNTRL CONUS TO THE S OF A VERY BLOCKED FLOW ACRS CANADA. DEEP              
NRLY STNRY VORTEX REMAINS OVER SCNTRL CAN...WITH OMEGA BLOCK UPR RDG            
OVER CNTRL CAN. SPRAWLING 1045MB SFC ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN               
MANITOBA UNDER THIS RIDGE. 12Z INL/YPL/YQD SDNGS SHOW DRY LLVLS...              
AND SFC DWPTS BLO 0F ACRS SCNTRL CAN/MUCH OF NW ONTARIO. 12Z PWATS              
AOB 0.10 INCH AT YQD/YPL/INL. SO DESPITE LGT NNE FLOW OF COLD AIR               
OVER LK SUP ATTM (UPSTREAM SFC TEMPS IN THE TEENS/H85 TEMPS ARND                
-13C)...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PTCHY SC OBSVD OVER LK SUP. THERE IS             
A PAIR OF WEAK SHRTWVS ACRS NW ONTARIO AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON THE              
SRN FLANK OF THE RDG...BUT AIRMASS IS SO DRY MAINLY JUST HI CLD                 
OBSVD. OTRW...FA IS ON NRN FRINGE OF HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER              
POTENT LO PRES MOVING E THRU THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. DRY NLY FLOW              
OUT OF RDG TO THE N WL KEEP THIS LO...ITS PCPN...AND EVEN MOST OF               
THE CLD COVER SAFELY TO THE S.                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE TEMPS/SMALL LES CHCS.                  
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS                
REMAINING NRLY STNRY JUST W OF THE FA TO THE S OF HI CENTER NEAR NRN            
MANITOBA AND W OF BLOCKING VORTEX IN SE CAN THRU SAT. WEAK SHRTWVS              
OVER NW ONTARIO/SRN SASKATCHEWAN FCST TO SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN IN THE DRY            
N FLOW E OF THE RDG AXIS/W OF THE BLOCKING LO TO THE E. GFS/NAM FCST            
SDNGS SHOW INVRN HGT REMAINING ARND H9 THRU THE TIME WITH LTL CHG IN            
INVRN BASE TEMP (-12C TO -14C)...SO DON'T THINK THERE WL BE ANYTHING            
MORE THAN FLURRIES. SINCE SUN IS GETTING HIER IN THE SKY AND                    
INSOLATION BEGINNING TO DRIVE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION...SUSPECT LK CLD            
MIGHT BECOME MORE WDSPRD DURING THE NGTS AND THRU THE MRNG BEFORE               
BRKG UP IN THE AFTN WITH AIR TENDING TO RISE OVER LAND/SINK OVER                
WATER. WL PROBABLY MAINTAIN GOING FCST OF A BIT MORE CLD COVER/SML              
CHC POP ON FRI NGT/SAT OVER THE E AS LATEST NAM/UKMET HINT AT                   
SOMEWHAT HIER H85 MSTR/LOWER H85 TEMP SWINGING BY WITH PASSAGE OF               
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO AND MORE NW LLVL FLOW...BUT WL               
NOT BE TOO PESSIMISTIC CONSIDERING DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS.  AS             
FOR TEMPS...WL GO AOB MOS GUIDANCE AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS             
AT NGT BUT THEN HAVE TEMPS RECOVERING AOA GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST A              
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE/JUST A FEW CU DURING THE AFTNS.                           
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PROMISES TO BE A QUIET ONE WITH NEGATIVE              
NAO PATTERN PERSISTING...BLOCKING UPR RDG ACRS GREENLAND/NE CANADA              
LOCKING VORTEX IN PLACE ACRS SE CANADA. AT THE SFC...A SPRAWLING DRY            
AREA OF HI PRES WL REMAIN OVER CAN AND FORCE ANY LO PRES SYSTEMS                
MIGRATING E OUT OF WRN TROF TO STAY WELL S OF THE FA WITH RELATIVELY            
DRY NNE FLOW. ONLY PSBL FLYS IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE SHRTWVS                   
ROTATING ARND WRN FLANK OF STNRY VORTEX IN SE CAN AND PSBL WEAK LES.            
AT THIS POINT...TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THESE SHRTWS ABOUND. WL                   
MAINTAIN PCLYD-MOCLDY SKIES/LO CHC POPS FOR THE LK SUP BORDER                   
COUNTIES ON WED AND KEEP SN CHCS LINGERING THERE INTO THU. LATEST               
GFS RUNS SUG A SHRTWV PASSAGE ON TUE AS WELL...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON NO            
PCPN FCST GIVEN DRY LOOK OF ECMWF/UKMET/NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE.                   
OTRW... EXPECT A RELATIVELY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS SUN-TUE WITH            
MAINLY CLR SKIES. NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL BLO              
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WL RECOVER NICELY UNDER INCRSGLY               
STRG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE.                                                       
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1028 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POTENT LITTLE VORT TREKKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ATTM. SNOW HAS                  
TAPERED OFF FROM WEST CNTRL MN TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS THIS                     
MORNING. WILL LET WARNING EXPIRE AT NOON FOR WC MN TO THE TWIN                  
CITIES AREA. SOME EVIDENCE OF MODEST BANDING IN PORTIONS OF SC MN               
INTO WISC AND DESPITE WEAKENING TREND IN MODELS...12Z NAM CROSS                 
SECTIONS OF NEGATIVE EPV...OMEGA AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY DO SUGGEST               
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SUCH THAT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE              
FROM AEL TO RGK AND EAU. IN FACT...BUFKIT SHOWS LIFT NOW IN THE                 
SNOW GROWTH LAYER WITH ABOUT FOUR INCHES AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.                
THUS WILL KEEP THE WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SC MN TO EAU               
AREA.  TDK.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                       
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND NEAR                 
NORTH EDGE OF MAX 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST SOMEWHAT            
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ALSO SAGGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH            
SINCE 06Z. LAPS STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOWING 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM THIS                
BAND...AND SEEMS TO BE CLOSE BASED ON REPORTS WE WERE RECEIVING AT              
AROUND MIDNIGHT. 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOWING THAT THIS FORCING REMAINS              
CLOSE TO THE SAME AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING AND THEN                 
SHIFTS SOUTH DURING MID MORNING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER..VORT             
MAY OVER NE NEB AREA WILL ENHANCE FORCING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS            
MORNING...AND THIS LINGERS INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD KICK UP                 
MORE OVER SOUTHERN MN AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.               
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING WITH SAME GENERAL TIME FRAME TODAY..BUT             
EXTEND INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD               
WORK OUT OK. AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH SNOW            
YET BUT THIS SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS              
AROUND MSP AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THOUGH IF ANOTHER BAND                     
DEVELOPS. A BIT OF A SUSPECT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN TERMS OF              
REACHING WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO SECONDARY                   
FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER             
TONIGHT SHOULD BLOW CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS. DRIER AIR               
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW SHOULD HELP TO DROP               
MID TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                       
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
LATEST GFS...00Z VERSION...CONTINUES PREVIOUS TREND OF A VERY BLOCKY            
PATTERN WITH THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND            
A PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POKING DOWN INTO MN FROM                   
CANADA. TRIMMED BACK THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO JUST WESTERN AND              
SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THAT MAY STILL BE                 
TOO MUCH. 00Z MEX TEMPERATURES DEPICT BELOW NORMAL VALUES...AND                 
GIVEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN FROM THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS             
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-BROWN-CARVER-          
     CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-                 
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-               
     SWIFT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE                
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-MARTIN-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-                
     WATONWAN COUNTIES.                                                         
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHIPPEWA-           
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX COUNTIES.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/MTF/RJN                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1040 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOIST LOW LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS               
THE REGION IS STARTING TO BE AFFECTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION              
OF A UPPER JET STREAK PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS BIT OF            
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST SOME                 
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST            
SECTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AFFECTING                
MOST SPOTS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OUT. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT                       
ANTICIPATED AND THE RISK OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRETTY                
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND VERTICAL              
TOTALS HOLDING LESS THAN 26. STILL COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL FALLING             
FROM THE STRONGEST CORES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 IN NORTHEAST LA             
AND SOUTHWEST MS (WHERE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS WOULD ALSO            
NOT BE INCONCEIVABLE).                                                          
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE (MAINLY A              
TOUCH DOWNWARD) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S IN THE REGION            
WITH CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PRECIP. POPS WERE ALSO BROUGHT UP TO               
CATEGORICAL (80) IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS AS RADAR TRENDS AND THE              
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST VERY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP             
AMOUNTS BY 00Z IN THESE AREAS. /BB/                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS             
SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT IS                 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT WILL TRACK EAST             
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                     
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY. LOCAL WIND                 
PROFILERS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI SHOW THE 80H            
FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED TO 30-40KTS. THIS HAS               
LED TO AN INCREASED MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING                  
INCLUDING A FEW RETURNS ON LOCAL RADARS IN THE SW THAT ARE LIKELY               
NOT REACHING THE GROUNDS. OUR SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO                  
INCREASE WITH SITES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 STILL IN THE MID 30S. HAVE              
BACKED OFF ANY POPS IN THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. LIGHT RAIN WILL                
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS            
TO REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FAVORABLE             
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE                 
RULED OUT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARISHES BEFORE NOON. THE               
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES BY 6            
PM THIS EVENING. AN NARROW POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED JUST               
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE             
REGION OF A 110KT JET STREAK MOVES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND               
PARISHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A BRIEF TIME PERIOD LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME               
STRONG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST                     
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED                
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE              
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR JACKSON AT MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH OF                      
HATTIESBURG BY THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN                
WILL FALL SOUTH OF I-20 TODAY AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE.               
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS EDGING INTO OUR                  
REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTH             
ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BUT                 
RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. /22/                                         
COLD...WET WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKES OVER             
SAT MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MON. WE WILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP THE                
COLUMN SOME FIRST AND THAT WILL TAKE ALL DAY FRIDAY AND INTO                    
SATURDAY SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP UNTIL                
LATE SAT MORNING OR EVEN AFTER MIDDAY BUT ONCE IT STARTS IT COULD BE            
A LONG TIME UNTIL THE RAIN COMPLETELY ENDS. IT WILL START OF AS SHRA            
AND LAST LIKE THAT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN BUT BY SUN AFTERNOON             
THERE MAY BE SOME SCT EMBEDDED TSRA AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALL CHANGE MON AS TSRA WILL BE MORE               
WIDESPREAD AND THE RAIN MAY GETS HEAVIER AND STARTS TO ACCUMULATE               
POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SEVERE                 
STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE.                                                         
GFS CONTINUES TO COME MORE INLINE WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF                
MONDAY'S SYSTEM. STILL A VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN MAKER WITH THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. H5 LOW DIGS INTO THE STHRN PLAINS AND            
GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED MON WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM TX THROUGH             
AR AND INTO TN/KY. GFS STILL SHOWING LL FLOW OF 45-55KTS BRINING IN             
H85 THETA E AIR OF 330K+ (UP TO 334K). VERY GOOD ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS OF -3.  WIND FIELD IS IMPRESSIVE AND                
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK COUPLED            
JET FEATURE OVER ESTRN MS BY 00Z TUE WITH A 120KT+ JET CORE MOVING              
THROUGH NRTHN LA AND STHRN AR. 60 KT H5 FLOW INCREASING TO AS HIGH              
AS 100 KTS PUSHING INTO THE CWA LATE MON. 65 TO 80 KTS H7 BRINGING              
IN ANOTHER STRONG DRY PUNCH AND MENTIONED EARLIER A LL JET OF 45 TO             
55 KTS SETTING UP OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF H5              
LOW AND SFC LOW HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PAST.             
DEEP MOISTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH PWS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2" MON.               
THE PROBLEM MAY BE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN. GFS            
DOES SHOW LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS AND MAYBE MID 60S DEWPOINTS PUSHING                
INTO THE AREA. ALSO WITH RAIN GOING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
MON THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND THIS               
WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM HEATING UP DURING THE DAY HINDERING                     
DESTABILIZATION. I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO THE THREAT OF            
BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT THE MAIN THREAT                 
LOOKS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS OF RIGHT NOW.                                    
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE MON EARLY TUE...EXPECT DRIER               
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SPEAKING OF TEMPS I AM                
VERY CONFUSED WITH THE GUIDANCE TEMPS. RIGHT NOW THE MEX GUIDANCE               
SEEMS TO WARM COMPARED TO THE LL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TUE.  LOOKING AT            
CLIMATE STATISTICS FOR OUR AREA...IN MID MARCH WITH H85 AND H925                
TEMPS OF LESS THAN 2C(GFS SHOWING H85 TEMPS DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY TO AS LOW AS -3C WHILE H925 TEMPS DROP TO -3/-4C) WE HAVE A VERY            
HARD TIME GETTING ABV THE UPPER 50S. THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT                 
THESE LL TEMPS ARE A GOOD BIT LOWER THAN 2C AND THIS MAKES IT HARD              
FOR US TO GET TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. I HAVE A HARD TIME GOING 10             
DEGREES OR MORE AWAY FROM GUIDANCE BUT I AM GOING TO GO A GOOD BIT              
COOLER ATLEAST 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN SOME              
LOCATIONS. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEFORE               
MAKING FINAL ADJUSTMENTS. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL                   
ACTUALLY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS COOLING THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
TEMPS REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT DO START TO MODERATE A LITTLE            
BY WEEKS END. ALSO WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI BUT THE 3 DAYS              
OF DRY WEATHER MAY BE WELCOME FOR THE AREA TO DRY FROM THIS WEEKENDS            
DELUGE. /CAB/                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000FT ARE             
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS RAIN AND             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRIEF            
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL            
BE GREATEST SOUTH INTERSTATE 20 TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS               
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2-3KFT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z FRI AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  /22/                                              
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
245 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT WITH DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE                
GROUND (NOT SURE IF THE .12 REPORTED ON THE AOH OB THIS PAST HOUR               
WAS REAL). 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING PCPN DOWN ACROSS AREA            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE DRY SLOT               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON               
THIS...KEEPING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE 290K-295 K SURFACES BETWEEN NOW             
AND 03Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BEGIN TO FILL IN A LITTLE             
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO              
FA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIRLY SHARP               
SOUTHERN EDGE. WILL THEREFORE...ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OFF FROM                
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON BLEND OF FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM...EXPECT PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN             
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR                    
SOUTH...ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON ANY                 
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE FACT THAT                
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND POSSIBILITY            
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE                   
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR THE EARLIEST...WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES               
WITH UP TO AN INCH DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CHANGE            
OVER SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.                          
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH            
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE THEN            
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR QUIET WEATHER             
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH              
THE ONSET OF PCPN.  THEREFORE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL MONDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  06Z RUN HAS THE              
LOW IN CNTRL KY AT 12Z TUE...12Z GFS NOW HAS IT IN ERN TN. WENT  A              
BLEND OF 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS...SO WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z MEX FOR HIGHS            
TUE. THE BLEND OF THE THICKNESSES PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND THE            
OHIO RIVER FOR TUE...BUT THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW ON THE BACKEDGE.                                                           
LOW PULLS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD NW                        
FLOW...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SHOWERS WED AND THU.                                                            
OTHER THAN BEING COOLER WITH TUE MAXS...WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.              
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO                   
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z                 
WITH LITTLE OR NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY             
THIS TIME BUT STILL BE VFR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE                   
TERMINALS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ALL BUT CINCINNATI BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION              
TAPERS OFF. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH              
A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN               
AFTER 12Z RESULTING IN CEILING LIFTING BACK TO VFR AND SOME                     
LOCATIONS MAY BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh