PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR SEP 21 - 25 2006

TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA 
FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED OVER NORTH AMERICA.  THE 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A 
LESSER EXTENT...THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A 
BROAD TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE 
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.  THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO BE A 
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND SHOWS TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS...ONE 
OVER THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHEAST.  TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS 
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT THIS TWO TROUGH SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE 
PHASING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN EACH 
INDIVIDUAL RUN.  THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION SUPPORTS BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS 
OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WITH THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL OVER THE 
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHEAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TWO TROUGH 
SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE ECMWF MEAN AND WOULD FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST AND 
NORTHWEST.  WEAK RIDGING IS SUPPORTED BY ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT INCURSIONS OF COOLER THAN NORMAL 
AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH.  FURTHER TO THE 
NORTH...MUCH OF ALASKA IS FORECAST TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH OVER 
THE BERING SEA AND A STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE CONUS. THE RESULTANT POSITIVE 
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF 
THE STATE.  WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE JET FORECAST 
OVER THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CONUS.  A 
BROAD AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.  ANOTHER AREA TO 
WATCH WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AS MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
STORM LANE MAY AFFECT THE AREA.  HOWEVER...MAJOR QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO WHETHER 
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.  PLEASE REFER TO 
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV) FOR THE LATEST 
INFORMATION ON LANE.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE 
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON 
DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...30 
PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF 
TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN MEAN (TIED)

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 
1 TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC 
CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 
BLENDED HEIGHTS.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC 
CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29 2006:

DURING THE WEEK 2 PERIOD...THE POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE FORECAST 
MODELS CONTINUES WITH HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.  THE 
0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A BROAD 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE THE 
6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS TWO SEPARATE TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST 
COASTS... RESPECTIVELY.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS THE RIDGE OVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...FORCING THE EAST COAST 
TROUGH OFFSHORE.  THE CONSENSUS OF THESE SOLUTIONS SHOWS A TROUGH REMAINING 
OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN EXTENSION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE TOWARD THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN CONUS AND A GENERAL WARMING 
TREND FOR THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE 
FAVORED ALONG THE EAST COAST DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA 
PROGRESSES OFFSHORE.  ALASKA IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS OVER 
THE BERING SEA AND THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO THAT DEPICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.  MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL CONUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN WET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
ROCKIES.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON 
DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE TODAY... 2 ON A 
SCALE OF 1 TO 5.

THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC 
CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED 
HEIGHTS.

THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AUTO FORECAST...THE CDC 
CALIBRATED FORECAST...AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES.

FORECASTER: S. HANDEL

NOTES: 

OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE 
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE 
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS 
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS 
CHANGE.

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS. 

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR 
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN 
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
SEPTEMBER 21.  

NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19790910 - 19680830 - 19810829 - 19970910 - 19960902
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19790910 - 19680829 - 19960918 - 19940904 - 19810828
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 21 - 25, 2006
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    N     
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N     
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    A     
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A     
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    A     
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A     
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A     
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A     
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A     
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A     
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N     
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    N     
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N     
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N     
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N     
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B     
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     N    B     
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B     
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    B    A     
 
 
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 29, 2006
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    N     
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N     
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    N     
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    N     
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A     
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A     
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A     
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A     
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    A     
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N     
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    N     
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N     
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N     
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N     
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B     
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B     
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B     
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    A     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$