FXUS61 KRLX 150704
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

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300 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT -- >
COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH CWA TODAY 
AND OUT OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL 
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH CWA ATTM.  WITH HEATING TODAY WILL SEE MORE 
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH FRONT. BEST 
LIFT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND KEPT LIKELY POPS THERE. 
CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.  TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND 
PRECIP AND STAYED CLOSE TO ORIGINAL GRID TEMPS AND GUIDANCE TEMPS AS 
THEY SEEM RESONABLE. CLEARING TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 
AND WILL MENTION FOG DEVELOPING IN THOSE AREAS THAT SHOULD CLEAR 
FIRST.

TUESDAY ON -- >
WHAT LITTLE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS LEFT TUESDAY MORNING IS ERADICATED 
DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA.  HIGH PROVIDES 
CALM BEFORE STORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BRUNT OF STORM...EFFECTS OF ISABEL...IS WELL NORTHEAST OF RLX 
FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOSEST APPROACH TO NORTHEAST TIP OF AREA ABOUT 
12Z FRIDAY.  GOOD RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THIS 
ONE...ALMOST DOWN TO WHETHER IT IS THE CHESAPEAKE OR THE DELAWARE 
BAY.  EDGED CHANCE POPS IN FROM THE EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY 
NIGHT...JUST SHY OF LIKELY NORTHEAST TIP 12Z FRIDAY.

FRONT GETS LOST IN CIRCULATION OF ISABEL FRIDAY.  EVOLVED POPS TO 
30-40 AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON...ACTUALLY REMOVING SEPARATION BETWEEN 
ISABEL AND FRONT.  THINGS DRY OUT SATURDAY FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW TAKE OVER IN THE WAKE ON 
THE STORM.

NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NUMBERS.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

JS/TRM
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900 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

A FEW DIURNAL SHRA AND A COUPLE TSRA FORMED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN 
THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM HEATING AND WEAK S/SE UPSLOPE FLOW.  
THESE ARE CURRENTLY DYING...WHILE LEAD BAND OF LIGHT SHRA CONTINUES 
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TOWARDS THE OHIO.

POP STRUCTURE...WITH LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE TO THE 
EAST...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD UP WELL AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED.  
TEMPS LOOK GOOD OVERALL...BUT WILL NUDGE UP A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  ONLY WORD CLEANUP OTHERWISE. 

CL
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518 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO HANDLE SHRA IN MOUNTAINS FORMING ON 
UPSLOPE FLOW.

CL
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245 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ASSISTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME 
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.  SHORTWAVE 
BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE WHICH WILL BRING COLD 
FRONT ACROSS AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY 
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THERE WILL BE UPPER SUPPORT 
AVAILABLE.  NOT EXPECTING TO MUCH IN WAY OF QPF BUT CERTAINLY THINK 
ALL LOCATIONS WILL MEASURE.  WARMER NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH 
CLOUDS REDUCING RADIATIVE COOLING.  DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION ON 
MONDAY AS 850H TEMPS DROP 4 TO 5 DEGREES FROM TODAY SO EXPECTING 
TEMPS IN MID 70S.

...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ANY POST FRONTAL/LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD BE EXITING 
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR MONDAY EVENING. FOG MENTIONED FOR SOUTHERN VALLEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND ISABEL OFF SE COAST.  YET...THINK
MOISTURE STILL LIMITED ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING INTO MOUNTAINS FROM 
E WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  

...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONTINUING SAGA OF HURRICANE ISABEL WILL DOMINATE THINKING FOR 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER TRACK WAS USED WHICH 
BRINGS ISABEL NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES ON 
THURSDAY AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE 
WESTERN FRINGES INTO AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS LATER ON THURSDAY. WHILE 
ISABEL WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA DURING FRIDAY...A COLD 
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISABEL MAY ROB 
QUITE A BIT FROM IT.  IN ANY EVENT...BY SATURDAY ISABEL AND THE 
FRONT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH LOTS 
OF WRAPAROUND CLOUDS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY SUNDAY. MOS 
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED CLOSELY. 

HC/BATTY/JMV
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955 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003

MORNING UPDATE...
MORNING VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND ONLY SOME LOW STRATUS IN EKN 
AREA.  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS 
MOUNTAINS AS SHORTWAVE OFF CAROLINA COAST BEGINS TO LIFT OUT.  
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME.  

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP MOVING A FEW HOURS FASTER THAN 
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST AND THEREFORE WILL INCREASE POPS IN FAR WEST TO 
CHANCE LATE TODAY AND WILL ADD CHANCE TO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES 
DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT.  OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.  EXPECT 
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST SYSTEM TO REMAIN EAST OF 
MOUNTAINS.

HC
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