EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
920 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
RADAR DETECTING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF SAINT             
LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE                
LAND PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST ABOUT DONE FOR THE DAY.               
EVENING UPDATES...ZONES...RIGHT NOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW IS             
TAKING THE COASTAL SHOWERS ON A PATH TO AFFECT THE COAST FROM                   
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH TO FORT PIERCE INLET. LATEST RUC SERIES                   
FORECAST THE BOUNDARY FLOW TO BECOME PARELLEL TO THE COAST LINE                 
AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN LIGHT SOUTH AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL REMOVE POPS FROM SOUTHERN ZONES.            
OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS REPORTING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 2              
FOOT...8 SECOND PERIOD...SEAS. MARINE ZONES WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES             
TO SEA HEIGHTS BASED ON CURRENT BUOY OBS.                                       
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
WIMMER/SPRATT                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
940 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
...SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                         
BAND OF PCPN MVG EWD THRU LMK FA ATTM, AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. HAVE            
BEEN USING RUC PW FIELDS TO FCST MVMT AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF PCPN IN             
HOURLY NDFD GRIDS, WHICH HAS PROVED FRUITFUL. VERY HIGH PCPN                    
EFFICIENCY CELLS EARLIER, WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEARING 14KFT AND PWS            
LOCALLY POOLING TO NEAR 2.5" BTWN KSDF-KBWG PER 12Z LMK-MM5. PCPN               
BAND WILL CONT TRANSLATING EWD DURING OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH SERN               
AREAS OF FA (LAKE CUMBERLAND) LAST TO SEE PCPN DEPART. WITH A GOOD              
SWATH OF PCPN DEPOSITED OVER FA (0.25-0.75" COMMON), AT LEAST SOME              
HAZE OR GROUND FOG LIKELY TOWARDS SUNRISE. PER RUC, LIMITING FACTOR             
FOR TRUE FG FORMATION ARE WIND FIELDS/SHEAR IN LOWEST 500 FT AGL                
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME LATE NIGHT TURBULENT EDDIES, ALTHOUGH ETA FCST               
WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT LIGHTER AND RECENT MOS SUGGESTS SOME BR. DRIER            
POST-FRONTAL AIR MAY LIMIT DEPTH OF BL SATURATION TOWARDS SUNRISE.              
OVERALL, WILL ADD "PATCHY" FG TO ALL ZONES LATE TONIGHT. A NICE                 
LITTLE RAIN WE HAD...THE GRASS WAS LOOKING A LITTLE DRY THERE FOR A             
COUPLE DAYS. XXV                                                                
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE -SHRA TRENDS ALONG WITH WINDS.                 
WV IMAGERY...RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED 548 DM H5 CLOSED              
LO BTWN CYQT/CYPL. AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED TOWARD NE MN FROM LO              
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY LEAVING WRLY FLOW OVER MOST OF THE WRN LAKES.               
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC WRAP AROUND FLOW...COLD H7                
TEMPS NEAR -4C ALONG WITH LEFTOVER DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN ENOUGH              
TO PRODUCE WEAK INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES THIS              
EVENING. TIGHT GRADIENT HAS KEPT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH              
GOING OVER THE KEWEENAW.                                                        
EXPECT -SHRA TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.              
HOWEVER...NEXT LOBE OF ENHANCED LO LVL MOISTURE AND H8 THERMAL TROF             
FCST TO SWING THROUGH THE WRN LAKE TOWARD THE KEWEENAW MAY KEEP SOME            
-SHRA GOING INTO NW UPR MI. 00Z ETA AND RUC SUGGEST WINDS OVER THE              
NW WILL ALSO DIMINISH AFT 06Z AS WEAK ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT SHIFTS            
TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. WHILE               
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...CAA SHOULD STILL PUSH             
VALUES NEAR FCST MINS.                                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
641 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR PULLING ON OUT OF SOUTHEAST MI TO THE                     
EAST...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GOING FORECAST. ANTICIPATE                    
UPDATING AROUND 7 PM TO FRESHEN UP THE WORDING. PARTLY CLOUDY                   
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING                
PARTLY CLOUDY EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                 
DWD                                                                             
FULL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                            
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH            
A SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS               
SHOWS ELONGATED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT OVER                
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE                  
WESTERN CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL              
LOWER...WITH WEAKER ECHOES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.                              
MAIN QUESTION IS WITH ONGOING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT                  
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z DTX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT                 
SURFACE CONDITIONS T/TD OF 85/71 GIVES CAPES NEAR 3500J/KG. MODIFIED            
18Z RUC SOUNDING FOR SAME CONDITIONS GIVES CAPES NEAR 2700J/KG.                 
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS            
AFTERNOON DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING.                
MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EAST OF THE STATE FROM OHIO TO                      
ONTARIO...WITH NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA              
HELPING TO INHIBIT GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ENOUGH                
INSTABILITY/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO GET              
SOME STORMS GOING. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND APPARENT              
INSTABILITY WOULD STILL ARGUE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS. DISTINCT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS              
TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY WILL            
WORD THE ZONES AS CATEGORICAL CENTRAL-NORTH/NUMEROUS FAR SOUTH FOR              
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WITH PRECIP                   
POSSIBLY OUT OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY THE TIME THE ZONES ARE ISSUED.            
VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE CLEARING EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO                 
WESTERN LOW. THICK CU FIELD BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN THAT IS DIURNALLY             
ENHANCE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO                  
WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR.                   
DEWPOINT ALSO DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK            
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK                   
SECONDARY TROUGH IN SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL                 
ENERGY DEPICTED BY BOTH ETA/GFS MOVING THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES            
OF CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW                 
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.              
WILL REMOVE THUNDER AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.            
D3D/VIS-5D TRAJECTORIES SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS ORIGINATING                  
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT RADAR ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS                 
DEVELOPING...WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR LOWER MICHIGAN                 
TOMORROW. WITH SOME SUN STILL SEE US GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S             
UNDER THERMAL TROUGH.                                                           
NEXT ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES ON SATURDAY...CARVING OUT ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH FOR THE                    
WEEKEND. DECENT WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE            
ON SATURDAY. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...LEADING TO             
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH MODERATE POP. DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY                    
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW POP INTO SUNDAY                 
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DESPITE WARM ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL             
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL             
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                                        
FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO START THE WEEK WITH               
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE            
REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE EAST             
COAST. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THOUGH...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE                   
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH              
TUESDAY...THEN REALLY DIVERGE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING TOWARD            
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH HIGH                   
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE THE SPEED            
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY ABOUT 24 HOURS                 
COMPARED TO THE 00Z/25 RUN...BRINGING IT IN LATE THURSDAY AS OPPOSED            
TO LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN AND                   
ASSOCIATED TIMING WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE THURSDAY PERIOD. ALSO             
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEAK LIFT THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE               
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN TO GO                
ALONG WITH THE WARMING WE REMAIN RATHER STABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE              
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                     
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
400 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG WITH            
A SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS               
SHOWS ELONGATED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH COLD FRONT OVER                
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE                  
WESTERN CWA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL              
LOWER...WITH WEAKER ECHOES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.                              
MAIN QUESTION IS WITH ONGOING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT                  
MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. 12Z DTX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT                 
SURFACE CONDITIONS T/TD OF 85/71 GIVES CAPES NEAR 3500J/KG. MODIFIED            
18Z RUC SOUNDING FOR SAME CONDITIONS GIVES CAPES NEAR 2700J/KG.                 
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS            
AFTERNOON DESPITE GOOD INSOLATION WITH SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING.                
MAIN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE IS EAST OF THE STATE FROM OHIO TO                      
ONTARIO...WITH NEGATIVE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA              
HELPING TO INHIBIT GOOD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ENOUGH                
INSTABILITY/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION TO GET              
SOME STORMS GOING. MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND APPARENT              
INSTABILITY WOULD STILL ARGUE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS. DISTINCT BACK EDGE OF PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS              
TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO JUST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST LIKELY WILL            
WORD THE ZONES AS CATEGORICAL CENTRAL-NORTH/NUMEROUS FAR SOUTH FOR              
THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY...WITH PRECIP                   
POSSIBLY OUT OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY BY THE TIME THE ZONES ARE ISSUED.            
VIS SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE CLEARING EDGE ALREADY WORKING INTO                 
WESTERN LOW. THICK CU FIELD BACK ACROSS WISCONSIN THAT IS DIURNALLY             
ENHANCE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO                  
WARRANT A PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO MOSTLY CLEAR.                   
DEWPOINT ALSO DROP OFF BEHIND THE FRONT...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP BACK            
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK                   
SECONDARY TROUGH IN SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL                 
ENERGY DEPICTED BY BOTH ETA/GFS MOVING THROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES            
OF CAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW                 
CHANCE OF PRECIP DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.              
WILL REMOVE THUNDER AND INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE.            
D3D/VIS-5D TRAJECTORIES SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL AIRMASS ORIGINATING                  
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. CURRENT RADAR ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS                 
DEVELOPING...WOULD EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR LOWER MICHIGAN                 
TOMORROW. WITH SOME SUN STILL SEE US GETTING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S             
UNDER THERMAL TROUGH.                                                           
NEXT ENERGY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT            
LAKES ON SATURDAY...CARVING OUT ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH FOR THE                    
WEEKEND. DECENT WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE STATE            
ON SATURDAY. GOOD MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...LEADING TO             
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH MODERATE POP. DEEP MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY                    
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL CARRY A LOW POP INTO SUNDAY                 
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE DESPITE WARM ADVECTION...ADDITIONAL             
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL             
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                                        
FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TO START THE WEEK WITH               
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE            
REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE EAST             
COAST. HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD THOUGH...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE                   
LINGERING AT THE SURFACE. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH              
TUESDAY...THEN REALLY DIVERGE WITH THE NORTHERN TROUGH MOVING TOWARD            
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH HIGH                   
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE THE SPEED            
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BY ABOUT 24 HOURS                 
COMPARED TO THE 00Z/25 RUN...BRINGING IT IN LATE THURSDAY AS OPPOSED            
TO LATE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN AND                   
ASSOCIATED TIMING WILL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE THURSDAY PERIOD. ALSO             
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE WEAK LIFT THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE               
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITHOUT ANY REAL MOISTURE RETURN TO GO                
ALONG WITH THE WARMING WE REMAIN RATHER STABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE              
WITH THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                     
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                     
FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA.                                
WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN ONTARIO SWD. A WEAK                    
SHORTWAVE WAS PIVOTING THRU NRN MN...AND THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF                
INTEREST THIS AFTN. OVER THE UPPER LAKES...MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT             
WAS DRIVING THRU THE AREA ON 95KT JET STREAK. AT THE SFC...COLD                 
FRONT JUST PASSED KISQ AND WAS NEARING KERY.                                    
VIS IMAGERY REVEALS BKN LOW CLOUDS LINGERING WWD ACROSS UPPER MI                
INTO NRN MN WHERE CLOUD DECK IS EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE. NO SURPRISE                
THEN TO SEE 12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWING FOR THE MOST PART A SATURATED             
AIRMASS BELOW 625MB. A FEW REPORTS OF -SHRA/SPRINKLES NOTED                     
UNDERNEATH THE NEARLY SOLID OVC STRATOCU DECK IN NRN MN...BUT RADARS            
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ECHOES. RUC SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER            
MN WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT HEADS OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTN WHILE                  
DEEPER MOISTURE (PER 12Z KINL SOUNDING) BEGINS TO ROTATE INTO THE               
AREA. LITTLE FORCING TO SPEAK OF NOTED ON RUC...BUT W HALF OF FCST              
AREA DOES GET UNDER CYCLONIC SIDE OF UPPER JET STREAK AS IT                     
TRANSLATES EWD TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING                
SHOULD YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLD -SHRA. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR            
SFC T/TD OF 67/49 GIVES MINIMAL CAPE OF UNDER 100J/KG...SO                      
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE WEAK.                                                 
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING PROMOTING                
MIXING. WITH 950MB FLOW REMAINING AT 20-30KT...GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH               
SHOULD BE COMMON. EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN OF KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE THE             
HIGHEST WINDS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR SO.                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
932 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
WILL BE MAKING SOME CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. 00Z RUC                  
SHOWING MORE INSTABILITY TO OUR NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.            
IN FACT..QUITE AN AREA OF H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE NOW OVER                   
EASTERN ND WILL MOVE SE AND PASS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA              
NEAR 12Z. KMVX RADAR INDICATES PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER                   
EASTERN ND ATTM. ALSO..00Z H25 ANAL SHOWING A 70 KNOT WIND MAX                  
POKING INTO ND. THE RUC TAKES THIS FEATURE SE INTO SOUTHERN MN                  
OVERNIGHT. THIS PLACES THE NE HALF OF THE CWA IN THE LEFT EXIT                  
REGION. LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND BUFKIT HOURLY DATA FROM THE 00Z            
RUC INDICATES CAPE BETWEEN 800 AND 500 MB DURING THE NIGHT WITH                 
VALUES UP TO 300 J/KG.                                                          
.MSP...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY FOR TODD               
COUNTY.                                                                         
$$                                                                              
RAH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
335 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
OPEN CELLULAR CU EVIDENT EVIDENT ON SATELLITE PICS THROUGH 1945 GMT.            
THE AREAS WITH THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THE CU FIELD COINCIDE NICELY             
WITH FORECAST TQ INDEX VALUES AROUND 16 TO 19C OVER CWA. AWIPS                  
GENERATED ETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED DECENT CAPE BELOW 650 MB SO              
WE HAVE SOME THUNDER MENTIONED GOING INTO THE EVENING WHICH SHOULD              
PASS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.                                                      
IN LATER PERIODS...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE TIMED IN A BASIC WEST            
TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. MODEL RESOLUTION OF A FEW JET STREAKS                
ADDED CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE TIMING AS DID FORECAST                           
CAPE/LI/SHOWALTER FIELDS. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS INDICATED NEXT WEEK.              
.MSP...FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR TODD                      
CNTY.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED TO ADJUST CCF TABLE             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
755 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT                                                           
UPDATES PLANNED...MAINLY TO FRESHEN WORDING OF ZONES. SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH APPROACH OF NIGHTFALL...AND GUSTY                 
WINDS HAVE SLACKENED EXCEPT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST                  
CORNERS OF CWA. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO THINNED OUT...BUT NOW MAINLY UPPER             
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. RUC...MESO-ETA...AND AVN SHOWING A SHORT WAVE               
TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW DRIVING A COOL FRONT ACROSS AREA LATE                  
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL WANT TO RETAIN MENTION OF SHOWERS            
BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...UPDATE WILL BE TO REDUCE WINDS             
AND LIMIT SHOWERS TO LATE. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY            
CLOUDY...ALBEIT LESS THAN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN INCREASING TO            
UPPER RANGE OF PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. FORECAST FOR FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE            
ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BREEZY AND COOL. UPDATE                   
LIMITED TO FIRST PERIOD. DNS                                                    
.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU...                                           
THE 4 TO 7 DAY PATTERN LOOKS QUITE TYPICAL OF THE FIRST HALF OF JULY            
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER               
THE WESTERN STATES. THIS BUILDS NORTH ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT              
IMPACT ON NE MT...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY REALLY HOT WEATHER. FOR THE            
MOST PART...THE RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY                   
MONSOONAL MOISTURE...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE BC COAST WILL            
BE FACTOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS COMMON IN AN ACTIVE AND                  
STRONG EARLY JULY THUNDERSTORM PATTERN...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE                   
SHORT-LIVED. WOULD EXPECT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS A COOL                 
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NE MT. THE CMC AND              
UKMET LOOK MOST THREATENING WITH THE UPPER LOW. IN ANY CASE                     
THOUGH...THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY STILL LOOKS                 
GOOD...AND THEN BASICALLY DRY AFTER THAT. ONGOING FORECAST IS FINE.             
SIMONSEN                                                                        
KGGW EBU 053/077 052/077 054/084 86322000                                       
     EEBE 059/088 054/082 055/084 056/085 8203300000                            
KGDV EBB 051/079 050/078 054/083 86222000                                       
     EEUB 059/087 058/085 056/087 057/085 8203300000                            
.GGW...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1010 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                     
WILL JUST TWEEK GRIDS A BIT...NO PLANNING ZONE UPDATE AS CURRENT                
ZONE FORECAST REFLECT CONDITIONS WELL.                                          
NICOSIA                                                                         
PRVS DSCN BELOW...                                                              
BIG PICTURE...SOMEWHAT PROGREESIVE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS...WILL BECOME MORE STAGNANT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ONE TROUGH                
MOVES ACROSS THE NERN US OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OPEN UP A                 
BIT.  THEN SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW                
TROUGHS OVER PAC NW AND CAN MARITIMES.                                          
TONIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER ERNCWA ATTM...AND WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AS WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES.  SOME CI WILL            
MOVE IN TONIGHT...BUT PROB NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME RAD                       
COOLING...BEFORE MORE SIG CLOUDS MOVE IN.  MODELS RACING THE COLD               
FRONT THROUGH...GFS AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC ARE THE FASTER                        
MODELS...PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO CWA BY 12Z...ETA/GEM SLOWER                
WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 12Z.  WILL BE STICKING             
WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE.                   
FRIDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE                
ETA/GEM...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FRONT A                     
BIT...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED MIDWAY THRU CWA.                    
THUNDER MOST LIKELY IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON S AND W OF                    
I-88...WHERE THE SUN WILL HAVE TIME TO GENERATE THE MOST                        
INSTABILITY.  CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE ARE SLIM...BUT COULD A                 
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IN NE PA OR SULLIVAN CTY. WILL BE CONTINUING            
TIMING OF PREV FORECAST BUT FINE TUNING A BIT WITH HIGHER TEMPORAL              
RESOLUTION.  THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE             
WEST...BUT NOT UNTIL EVE SE ZONES.                                              
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT...WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN UNDER WEAKENING 500 MB              
TROUGH...AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...MINS WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL SAT             
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 80 ON SAT.  ATMOSPHERE WILL                
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON SAT...SO EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP ON                
SAT...BUT M/S SHOULD COVER IT.                                                  
SAT NIGHT-THU...ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR TWEEKS IN THE XTNDD PCKG BASED            
ON LATEST TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE. KEPT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN                
INTO SUNDAY NGT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT RESTRICTED THE CHCS ON                 
MONDAY TO THE MRNG HRS ACRS SE ZONES, CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.            
OTRW THE PTRN FAVORS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO              
WATCH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE POTNL            
OF SOME SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NXT WEEK              
(ALTHO WAVES WILL HAVE LIMITED MSTR TO WORK WITH).                              
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
SHORT...CEMPA                                                                   
EXTENDED...BRADY                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
258 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
BIG PICTURE...SOMEWHAT PROGREESIVE 500 MB FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS...WILL BECOME MORE STAGNANT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ONE TROUGH                
MOVES ACROSS THE NERN US OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OPEN UP A                 
BIT.  THEN SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA PATTERN SETS UP WITH SHALLOW                
TROUGHS OVER PAC NW AND CAN MARITIMES.                                          
TONIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSING OVER ERNCWA ATTM...AND WILL                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...AS WEAKENING TROUGH APPROACHES.  SOME CI WILL            
MOVE IN TONIGHT...BUT PROB NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME RAD                       
COOLING...BEFORE MORE SIG CLOUDS MOVE IN.  MODELS RACING THE COLD               
FRONT THROUGH...GFS AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC ARE THE FASTER                        
MODELS...PUSHING THE FRONT WELL INTO CWA BY 12Z...ETA/GEM SLOWER                
WITH FRONT ARRIVING INTO WRN CWA JUST BEFORE 12Z.  WILL BE STICKING             
WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND BRING CHC POPS INTO WRN ZONES LATE.                   
FRIDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE                
ETA/GEM...AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROBABLY SLOW THE FRONT A                     
BIT...BUT IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL IT HAS PASSED MIDWAY THRU CWA.                    
THUNDER MOST LIKELY IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON S AND W OF                    
I-88...WHERE THE SUN WILL HAVE TIME TO GENERATE THE MOST                        
INSTABILITY.  CHANCES OF ANYTHING SEVERE ARE SLIM...BUT COULD A                 
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IN NE PA OR SULLIVAN CTY. WILL BE CONTINUING            
TIMING OF PREV FORECAST BUT FINE TUNING A BIT WITH HIGHER TEMPORAL              
RESOLUTION.  THINGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT NICELY BY MID-AFTERNOON IN THE             
WEST...BUT NOT UNTIL EVE SE ZONES.                                              
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT...WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN UNDER WEAKENING 500 MB              
TROUGH...AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN...MINS WILL END UP BELOW NORMAL SAT             
MORNING...BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 80 ON SAT.  ATMOSPHERE WILL                
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT ON SAT...SO EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP ON                
SAT...BUT M/S SHOULD COVER IT.                                                  
SAT NIGHT-THU...ONCE AGAIN ONLY MINOR TWEEKS IN THE XTNDD PCKG BASED            
ON LATEST TRENDS AND MDL GUIDANCE. KEPT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN                
INTO SUNDAY NGT ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA, BUT RESTRICTED THE CHCS ON                 
MONDAY TO THE MRNG HRS ACRS SE ZONES, CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING FRONT.            
OTRW THE PTRN FAVORS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO              
WATCH IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE POTNL            
OF SOME SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NXT WEEK              
(ALTHO WAVES WILL HAVE LIMITED MSTR TO WORK WITH).                              
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
SHORT...CEMPA                                                                   
EXTENDED...BRADY                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
310 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
SFC ANALYSIS AT 18Z DEPICTED A PREFRONTAL TROF FROM NW OH INTO SE               
IN. BEST INSTABILITY ASSOCD WITH PREFRONTAL TROF ATTM.                          
MEANWHILE...SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GSH TO NEAR                    
IND...THEN SW INTO SRN IL.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED                      
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCD WITH COLD FRONT.                                      
SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MAINLY THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF            
OHIO UNTIL 8 PM EDT.  AS STATED ABOVE...BEST INSTABILITY AHEAD OF               
PREFRONTAL TROF.  KILN RADAR WAS SHOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH            
THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE NW CWFA WHERE SOME UPR DIV FROM RR                 
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WAS LOCATED.  SEVERE WX THREAT FOR THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE AFTN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND WHERE CELL CORES CAN GET            
ENOUGH ELEVATION TO CREATE WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY (DELTA THETA E               
FROM SFC TO 500 MB AROUND 25 KELVIN...POINTING TO MICROBURST                    
POTENTIAL).  ETA MODEL MAY BE OVERDOING SFC TO 850 MB CONV WHILE THE            
LATEST RUC WAS MUCH WEAKER WITH LOW LVL CONV AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED            
FRONT.  RIGHT NOW...THINKING ABOUT 60 POPS NORTHWEST TO 50 POPS                 
ELSEWHERE...BUT MAY MAKE A LATEST MINUTE DECISION ON THIS BASED ON              
LATEST RADAR IMAGES BEFORE ISSUANCE.  OTHERWISE...ONCE COLD FRONT               
PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN.  WOULD EXPECT FASTER CLEARING                
OVERNIGHT IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE HIGH LVL CIRRUS IN THE S TO SW FLOW            
ALOFT.  SO WILL SHOW GRADUALLY CLEARING WEST WITH EVENUTAL PARTLY               
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                          
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW ON                         
FRIDAY...PROVIDING FOR MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  THERE WILL              
BE SOME DIURNAL AFTN CU...BUT TOUGH CALL ATTM WHETHER IT WILL GO                
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTN.  WILL WORD FCST MOSTLY SUNNY.  UPPER 70S             
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS.                                       
WITH S/WV DROPPING INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WRN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY               
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MID CLOUDS WILL SKIRT FROM CONVECTION THERE               
INTO THE NRN CWFA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.                               
GFS/ETA ARE NOW BOTH SHOWING NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REALLY GETTING               
SHEARED APART BY SUNDAY.  ETA WOULD SUGGEST DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY               
WHILE GFS WOULD INDICATED A SMALL CHC FOR AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL KEEP SMALL CHC ACRS ENTIRE CWFA.                       
06Z GFS WAS TRENDING DRIER ACRS THE NRN CWFA FOR MONDAY AND                     
TUESDAY...LEAVEING A SMALL CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS               
THE SRN CWFA.  BUT WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SHEARING FRONT APART AND                 
ALLOWING SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY               
AND TUESDAY...WILL PULL PRECIP FROM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                         
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
HICKMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1005 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                     
FIRST ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST ABOUT TO EXIT SOUTHWEST                    
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL MN. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH                
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND Q-G CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER.                  
LATEST ETA AND RUC MODEL SUGGEST THE Q-G CONVERGENCE IS GOING TO                
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA...WHICH                    
SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR                    
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
APPROPRIATE ZONES WERE UPDATED AT 03Z TO INCORPORATE CHANGES                    
MENTIONED ABOVE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                        
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
323 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH APPROACHING WEATHER              
SYSTEMS.                                                                        
IN THE SHORT TERM...WEATHER NIL OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIRMASS SETTLES                
OVER REGION TONIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM/RUC DECREASE WINDS AND SCATTERED               
CLOUDS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S ADVECTING TOWARD CWA.           
WILL GO SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN RESPECT FOR THESE DEW            
POINTS. ON FRIDAY ADJUSTED TIMING FOR SHOWERS FOR JUST AFTERNOON                
HOURS AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOWER CHANCES BEST DURING TIME OF           
MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH ETA/GFS WEAK MID LEVEL UPWARD                
VERTICAL MOTION FIELD.                                                          
IN THE FAR TERM...ETA/GFS BOTH FAVOR HOLDING OFF INITIAL ROUND OF               
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH APPROACHING PLAINS WEATHER SYSTEM UNTIL              
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND LACK OF WELL              
DEFINED LOW LEVEL JET TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF CWA UNTIL AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. THEN WILL KEEP DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR             
SATURDAY...THOUGH ETA TRIES TO DEPICT DRY INTRUSION DURING                      
AFTERNOON. PROGS HOWEVER PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS WITH WEAK SUMMER LIKE WEATHER SYSTEMS EVOLVING TO KEEP                 
BOUNDARY CLOSE TO CWA FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE INTO SATURDAY              
EVENING.                                                                        
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
TZ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
330 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).                                    
CURRENTLY...QUIET NIGHT OVER THE CWA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS                    
POOLED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...WITH LOW CLOUDS AT KRTN AND KLVS.            
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO MAKE IT OVER THE RATON RIDGE...BUT                
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DESCENDING OFF OF THE RATON RIDGE.  FOG PRODUCT               
INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE SOUTH OF KTAD.                                    
FOR TODAY...NEXT IN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST.               
ANOTHER WEAK SURGE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY.  THE               
LATEST MESOETA SUGGEST AND RUC SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL POOL                  
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE                   
AFTERNOON.  I HAVE PUT SOME 20 POPS INTO THESE AREAS.  THE ETA HAS              
THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND 20 POPS IN LAS             
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES LOOK GOOD.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT                
MAKE IT WEST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SO CONTINUED DRY.                         
FOR TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND IT            
INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  ETA HAS 1500             
CAPE AT 06Z OVER BACA COUNTY AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIP              
MAY LAST PAST MIDNIGHT...BUT CIN IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE LARGE.                   
CURRENT FORECAST HAS GENERAL AREA OF 20 POPS OVER THE PLAINS AND                
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING.  THIS LOOKS OK FOR NOW.                 
WITH EASTERLY FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE           
MODELS...TO MOVE WESTWARD. DAYSHIFT CAN TRY TO FINE TUNE POSITION OF            
SUBTLE FEATURES. WEST OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...STILL DRY AND MILD.            
-PGW-                                                                           
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY                           
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE SURGE DROPS SOUTH OVER THE               
PLAINS...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW. MESO-ETA SUGGESTS                 
CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG...WITH VALUES PUSHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE FAR               
SERN PLAINS. WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF             
30-40 KTS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...WITH SWODY2                
SLIGHT RISK AREA LOOKING REASONABLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL                    
INTO SOME SORT OF MCS ON THE PLAINS IN THE EVENING...WITH AXIS                  
OF HEAVIEST RAINS ALONG THE KS BORDER. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND              
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.                                                  
SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY DEEPER POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD AGAIN                 
PRODUCE A HEALTHY ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS...           
AND WITH CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF                   
30-40 KTS...ISOLATED SEVERE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. CURRENT GRIDS LOOK              
GOOD WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS...SO AGAIN NO CHANGES NEEDED.                        
MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK TOWARD CO WHICH                
SHOULD BEGIN THE WARMING AND DRYING PROCESS OVER THE EAST...WHILE               
WRN ZONES SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR GENERALLY DRY AND HOT WX. STILL                 
COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS             
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LESS THAN              
SAT/SUN.                                                                        
TUE-THU...CURRENT DRY AND HOT FCST LOOKS GOOD AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS            
OVER CO AND TAKES ON A MORE SW-NE ORIENTATION. THIS ALLOWS FOR                  
DRIER SWRLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER CO...AND WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF 18-20C            
SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO              
NUDGE UP MAX TEMP GRIDS A DEGREE OR 2 EACH DAY. --PETERSEN                      
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
318 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE SOUTH        
OF THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND     
TONIGHT.  EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION FOLLOWED      
BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BEHIND       
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE            
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTER       
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE          
REGION...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TO BRING SHOWERS      
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                       
DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN          
NA UPPER RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION NEARLY OVR THE LAST        
WEEK. IN ITS STEAD...TYPICAL WRLYS ALF FEATURING SEVERAL S/WVS AND A            
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FEW CHGS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG       
WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE OF WX ELEMENTS THRU PD 6.                                 
TDY AND TNGT: NOTICED THAT SPC PLACED NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA IN A           
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WE AGREE THAT THE              
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WHICH WILL           
BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE             
COLD FRONTAL TIMING...WE HAVE TWO CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR             
WEATHER. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ETA HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING LLVL DEWPOINT        
TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY CAPES BY NEARLY A FACTOR OF TWO OVR THE LAST FEW         
DAYS. THE SECOND IS THAT OUR FA IS STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH H7 TEMPS IN        
THE 8 TO 10 DEG C CATEGORY WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING BELOW 8 DEG C OVR THE         
W UNTIL ABOUT 20Z.                                                              
WITH THIS SAID...FAVORABLE FACTORS DO INCLUDE WEAK LLVL FRONTOGENSIS/CNVRG      
AND MID LVL Q-VEC CNVGR. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RUC SOUNDING DATA IS STILL NOT     
AVAILABLE OUT TO 21Z...THE XPCTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME...BUT WE           
ANTICIPATE ACTUAL CAPES MORE IN LINE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE N AND      
W RATHER THAN 3000 J/KG FORECASTED BY THE ETA. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A       
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SVR. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD        
OFF ON ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN THE ZFP TO ALLOW SPC TO RE-EVALUATE SVR         
POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA IN THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE. WE WILL ISSUE A            
CONVECTIVE SPS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTMS ACROSS SPCLY NRN       
AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE.                                  
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SUNNY START AND VERY WARM LLVL ATMOSPHERE...WE WENT       
A LITTLE ABOVE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS TDY.                           
SAT...CONT/D W/CHC POPS EXTREME ERN CWA FOR THE MORNING AS FRONT CLEARS         
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. UPPER S/WV DRIVES THRU THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY         
THIS TIME...ATMOS DRIES OUT W/DECENT CAA. GUID MIGHT BE UNDER WINDS A BIT.      
ANYWAY...MUCH DRIER & PLEASANT WX. TEMPS AOA 80 W/AID IN DOWNSLOPE EVEN         
AT THE COAST.                                                                   
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: ANOTHER LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE           
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE ACROSS      
THE N & W SUNDAY NIGHT & THEN I TRANSLATED EVERYTHING E ON MONDAY INTO          
MONDAY NIGHT W/FROPA. HIGH PRES PROGGED BY THE LATEST MRF/GFS/GEM & EURO        
GUID TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY & REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THURSDAY.       
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS ON FRIDAY W/THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA.       
MARINE...                                                                       
NO HEADLINES W/THIS PKG. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECMG W         
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA.                                
AVIATION...VSBY 3-5 MILES IN HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS    
MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER        
WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 22-02Z     
OVER THE NORTH...00-04Z CENTRAL AND 02-06Z ACROSS DOWNEAST.                     
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
VJN/LF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING ISOLATED SHRA TODAY...AND                   
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN.            
WV LOOP...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPR TROF AXIS                 
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPR RDG OVR THE ERN              
PACIFIC. BTWN THESE FEATURES UPSTREAM SHRTWV/JET MAX NOTED OVR PAC              
NW AND NRN ROCKIES.                                                             
TODAY...COOLER DAY IN STORE AS 8H THERMAL TROF AXIS SWINGS ACROSS               
THE AREA WITH TEMPS OF 1-2C IN THE NORTH AND 4-6C SOUTH. W/ MIXING              
TO 800-850MB...THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND             
MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...WITH COOLEST READINGS (50S) ALONG THE LAKE             
SUPERIOR SHORE. MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDINGS FOR TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S             
AND DEWPTS IN MID 40S YIELD CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG. GIVEN THIS                   
INSTABILITY AND COOL 5H TEMPS OF -19C TO MOVE OVRHD THIS AFTERNOON              
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD SHRA ACROSS CWA. BELIEVE SHRA                    
ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH WEST IN AFT AS UPR TROF AXIS MOVES MORE OVR ERN            
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
TONIGHT...SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR AREA AS SKIES CLR AND WINDS BCM LGT.              
HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER MINS TO UPR 30S OR AROUND 40 FOR INLAND                   
AREAS...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE...UNDER PRIME RAD COOLING CONDS.                 
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV/SPEED MAX OVR NRN ROCKIES                  
SCHEDULED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD OVR NRN GRT LAKES AND UPR MIDWEST.                  
MODELS DIFFER ON DETAILS AS ETA AND CANADIAN MODEL DVLP DEEPER                  
SYSTEM OVR SRN WI AND TRACK SFC LOW TO MACKINAC STRAITS AREA SAT                
NIGHT WHILE GFS AND UKMET SHOWING WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING FURTHER                
SOUTH OVR NRN LWR MI.  ETA/CANADIAN MODEL ALSO ADVERTISING BEST UPR             
DIV OVR AREA WITH DUAL 3H JET STRUCTURE...ONE JET MAX OF 60-80 KT               
JET DIVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE 60KT JET DEPARTS NE OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT ETA AND CANADIAN MODELS MUCH WETTER FOR UPR MI            
THAN GFS OR UKMET. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING                
ACROSS CWA. ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY SFC LOW TRACK HINTED AT            
BY MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY KEEP CHC OF THUNDER FOR ONLY SRN               
TIER COUNTIES SAT AND SAT EVENING WHERE MODELS SHOW BEST INSTABILITY            
CLOSER TO WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW. GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN HAVE DECIDED              
TO TRIM BACK HIGHS SATURDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.                            
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATES               
DOWN BACK OF LINGERING UPR LOW. WL KEEP CHC OF SHRA ACROSS CWA.                 
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WITH A BIT MORE MIXING AND LESS              
RAIN COOLED AIR AROUND. WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF 8-10C OVRHD...EXPECT               
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO BE REACHED.                                      
IN THE EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE AS DRY FCST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MON            
AND TUE WITH NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WED AND THU AS ANOTHER                   
SHRTWV/CDFNT DUE IN FM PLAINS.                                                  
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
345 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI)...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK FRONT             
LOCATED NEAR THE EWX/CRP CWA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. RUC THETA-E             
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THIS...BUT ALSO REVEALS THE MAIN PUSH OF                    
DRIER/COOLER AIR UP OVER NORTH-CNTRL TX. FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND NOT              
MUCH OF ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF UPR LVL DYNAMICS WITH THIS UNUSUAL               
JUNE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WERE FORMING OVER THE               
VICTORIA CROSSROADS REGION DOWN INTO MATAGORDA BAY AND DRIFTING                 
SOUTH. FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE CONCERNING POPS AND                  
DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. 00Z CRP SOUNDING HAD OVER 2" OF PWS AND              
WAS FAIRLY MOIST ALL THE WAY UP SO WE HAVE THE MOISTURE TO WORK                 
WITH. GFS WAS MUCH WETTER AND MAV GUIDANCE WANTED TO HANG ONTO                  
HIGHER POPS ACROSS CWA THROUGH AFTERNOON. ETA SOLUTION WAS DRIER.               
MESOETA PUSHED CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF CWA BY 21Z AND                  
BROUGHT IN LARGE AREA OF NEGATIVE OMEGA ACROSS HEART OF CWA BY 00Z.             
THINK CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER NE COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING                 
SHOULD GIVE FRONT ENOUGH OF A PUSH INTO COASTAL WATERS THAT I CAN               
TAPER POPS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. CONCERNED             
MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES..PARTICULARLY WEST WERE PUSH WONT BE             
AS FAST. WILL HANG ONTO HIGHER POPS SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE FRONT...OR AT             
LEAST CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR DOWN INTO BRO'S AREA INTO               
THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES. WILL KEEP POPS OVER THE             
MARINE FOR TONIGHT WHERE FONT LIKELY TO WASH OUT.                               
LONG TERM (SAT-THU)...MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS                 
THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT WILL TREND MY SOLUTION CLOSER AS A BLEND              
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL I DONT PLAN ON MAKING TOO MANY                   
CHANGES EXCEPT TO PLACE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THE WEST THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND...AS THE MOISTURE AXIS FROM WASHED OUT FRONT AND DAYTIME                
HEATING INTERACT. WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE                
APCHG TROPICAL WAVE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGING FURTHER WITH                 
REGARDS TO THIS WAVE. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE WAVE             
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS COAST TUE/WED. WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR               
TUE...CHC WED AND SLGT CHC THU. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT              
TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NE-ELY             
DIRECTION THRU TUE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW IN THE WRN               
GULF.                                                                           
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP EB 090/073 091/072 093 40101                                                
VCT EB 091/070 092/071 094 3-000                                                
LRD EB 095/074 098/074 099 41202                                                
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
76 JR (SHORT TERM)                                                              
75 JM (LONG TERM)                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
948 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO UPDATE WINDS...TEMPERATURES...             
AND PRECIPITATION. RUC IS HANDLING WINDS WELL THIS MORNING...AND WILL           
UPDATE GRIDS WITH IT. IT IS KEEPING DOWNSLOPE WINDS GOING THROUGH               
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS ALLOWING            
TEMPERATURES TO RISE MORE THAN NEW 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. WILL             
BE RAISING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 IN THE WESTERN HALF BECAUSE OF             
THIS.                                                                           
HAVE HAD PERSISTANT AREA OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND TOWERING                  
CUMULUS ALL MORNING. HAVE EVEN HAD A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS           
THIS MORNING ALREADY. LAPS IS ALREADY SHOWING THE AIR MASS BECOMING             
PRETTY UNSTABLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN              
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY                        
CORRESPONDING TO DECENT THETA E AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ALSO HAVE A           
700 MB TROUGH AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR WEST AS WELL.                    
RUC/ETA/ETA KAIN-FRITSCH SHOWS A VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS                   
THROUGH 700 MB DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF KANSAS STATELINE THIS             
AFTERNOON. NO CAP IS ALSO SHOWN. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE             
THE ONE LACKING FACTOR OUT OF ALL THE PARAMETERS. ETA KAIN-FRITSCH              
DOES DEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO              
THIRDS. EVERY OTHER MODEL HAS LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. CONSIDERING           
WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND MODELS AGREEING ON THE POSITION OF THE           
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AM GOING TO RAISE                  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST FOR TODAY.            
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...           
AND WILL ADDRESS THAT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT            
LAKES. MAIN SHORTWAVE/300MB JET AXIS JUST CLEARING EAST OF THE                  
STATE...WITH WEAKER VORT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS            
HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SECONDARY             
COLD FRONT FROM JAMES BAY TO MINNESOTA. VIS/IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR            
SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH NEXT BATCH OF MID CLOUDS                 
MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER.                                                     
MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP AND                   
THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS               
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE 850-500MB QVECTOR                 
DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. HOWEVER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE ENERGY OVER UPPER               
MICHIGAN. CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER ARE LOCATED IN A WEAK               
850MB THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE. EXPECT THESE                      
CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA THIS                      
AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK ECHOES APPARENT ON GRB RADAR WITH THIS                    
ACTIVITY. DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MAKE A VERY FAST PROGRESS                  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE AS MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOW NEARLY PARALLEL               
WITH THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER WEAK LIFT/UPPER DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY                
LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE OF +60KT 500MB JET               
MAX NEAR LAKE HURON. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 78/51 YIELDS UP              
TO 300 J/KG CAPE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING NEAR                 
50/LOWER 50S...WITH STATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN UPPER            
MICHIGAN DOWN INTO THE MID 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z RUC/ETA TRY TO             
MIX OUT A LOT OF THIS SURFACE MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA UNDER DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR. 12Z DTX SOUNDING             
HAS A FEW MINOR SPEED BUMPS WITH MAIN CAP JUST ABOVE 500MB...WITH               
-20C ISOTHERM INTERSECTING THE PROFILE ABOVE IT NEAR 400MB. UPSTREAM            
RAOBS INDICATE 500MB THERMAL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM FROM US...WITH                
SOME DESTABILIZATION/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO                    
DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP A             
SLIGHT MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THE UPDATE.               
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CAP HOLDS A BIT                   
LONGER...BUT WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE             
RATES/INSOLATION AND WEAK LIFT.                                                 
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED AT THIS POINT. WILL UPDATE TO FRESHEN             
WORDING FOR PRECIP/CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK WINDS WHICH HAVE BACKED             
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT A MODERATE CLIP.                                     
BRAVENDER                                                                       
FULL MORNING DISCUSSION...                                                      
WELL DEFINED TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH 100KT                 
300MB JET RACING NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE.  DEEP MOISTURE WAS                   
SLIDING EAST THIS MORNING WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ADVECTING IN            
FROM THE WEST PER H2O VAPOR.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE...NOT HANDLED WELL             
IN THE MODELS...WAS OVER WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF                
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS (LIGHTNING DATA PLOT).  THIS COINCIDED WITH A SECONDARY SFC               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE                    
DAKOTAS WHICH WILL BE OUR FIRST FORECAST CONCERN...TO BE FOLLOWED BY            
A DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION EVENT FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.                 
TODAY...                                                                        
AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF WAS INITIALIZED BETTER BY THE ETA...AS THE              
GFS DOES DEVELOP CONVECTIVE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK BY 18Z...WHICH                  
BRINGS THIS FEATURE BETWEEN M59/I69 LATE IN THE DAY.  COMPARED TO               
12/18Z PREVIOUS RUNS...CAPES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH SFC BASED LI/S            
NEAR 0C.  THE MOST "UNSTABLE" CONDITIONS ARE NORTH OF M59 BUT A                 
CLOSER LOOK AR BUFKIT PROFILES AND POINT DERIVED SOUNDINGS SHOW A               
CAP AROUND 650MBS WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW THE PARCEL TO CLIMB FURTHER.             
HOWEVER...WE ARE BIT CONCERNED WITH UPSTREAM LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THAT            
OCCURRED AND WE WILL ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON               
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M59.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE               
HIGHLY DEPENDANT OF SUNSHINE.  TRAJECTORY FORECASTS ORIGINATE FROM              
EASTERN IOWA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 75F WHERE DIURNAL CU             
DID DEVELOP.  SINCE UPSTREAM CLOUD DEBRIS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 12Z...WE WILL CUT BACK A                
COUPLE DEGREES IN OUR CURRENT GRIDS.                                            
TONIGHT...                                                                      
THIS FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AS WAA PATTERN AND MID LEVEL                
FLOW BACKS TO INHIBIT FURTHER PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT FROM CLEARING              
THE STATE.  THE GFS...WITH ITS CONVECTIVE OMEGA BULLET...RIDES ALONG            
THE FRONT AND APPROACHES THE STATE BETWEEN 06-12Z.  WHILE A COMPLEX             
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E AND LLJ...THE ETA                  
APPEARS TO BE MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION WHICH ALLOWS THE JET TO                
SLOWLY EVOLVE THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS.  IN            
TURN...THIS FRONT BECOMES A WARM FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH               
CLOSE TO SUNRISE.  CURRENT NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST BEST FORCING             
AND THETA-E ADVECTION FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA              
TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                                 
SATURDAY...                                                                     
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY AS...DEPENDANT ON THE            
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE             
WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB.  CAPES               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB (PER ETA) AROUND             
1500 J/KG WITH EHI/S OVER 1 AND HELICITIES BETWEEN 150/250 M2/S2                
FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THIS WILL HIGHLY BE DEPENDANT            
ON HOW MUCH UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER DOES IMPACT THE REGION FOR THESE               
CAPES TO BE REALIZED.  SINCE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR FAVORABLE              
WITH 300MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS FOCUSING OVER THE CWA...WE WILL BRING              
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF M59 IN THE GRIDS.               
SATURDAY NIGHT...                                                               
FROPA OCCURS OVERNIGHT WITH BEST FORCING WELL REMOVED FROM THE SFC              
FRONT AS LOW TRACKS WELL NORTH INTO ONTARIO.  WITH LACK OF COLD                 
ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT HIGHER AS SUGGESTED IN            
THE LATEST MOS VALUES.  GIVEN CONTINUITY...WE WILL RAISE OUR GRIDS              
UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                                                         
SUNDAY...                                                                       
WITH MEAN TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD POOL TO OUR                     
NORTH...IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO REMOVE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                     
CONVECTION.  WHILE IT WILL NOT BE WASH OUT...WE WILL LEAVE IN THE               
CHANCE.                                                                         
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE            
TEMPERATURES.  NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THOSE GRIDS.                      
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
940 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
TEMPS ARE WARMING ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE            
SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO EDGE FARTHER EAST WHILE LEE SIDE TROF                 
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EXPECT INSTABILITY             
TO INCERASE AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE              
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST RUC STILL INDICATING INCREASED MID              
LVL OMEGA BY EARLY EVENING AS WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL LEAVE                
MENTION OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND               
CHANCE CONVECTION EVERYWHERE FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
WITH TEMPS ON SCHEDULE WILL PLAN NO UPDATES TO ZONE PACKAGE BUT WILL            
UPDATE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS.             
MARINE: AS THE BENIGNESS OF IT ALL CONTINUES ALONG THE 0-20NM CWF               
BEACH AND BOATING CWF PATHWAY...ONE COULD JUST SAY "DITTO." EXTENDED            
RIDGE OF THE BIGGER WESTERN ATLANTIC 1029MB BERMUDA HIGH PICTURE                
WILL SLOWLY RECEDE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE TODAY AS SOMEWHAT ANEMIC COLD             
FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART STAY IN SOUTHWEST MODE AT 15-20 KTS TODAY               
THEN LIGHTEN UP INTO 5-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
COMES TO A HALT AND FIZZLES OVER CWA. SW P-GRAD TO TIGHTEN BACK UP              
INTO 15-20 KT RANGE LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AS RIDGE              
RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND FRISKY 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET ADD'S SOME              
FLAVOR TO THE MIX. UNLESS SOMETHING ELSE COMES ALONG TO SHAKE UP THE            
"GOOD BOATING" PATTERN...SOUND WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL              
BASICALLY REMAIN IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE AND SEAS ALONG BOTH LEGS SHOULD            
CONTINUE THEIR 2-4 FT MANTRA. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SURF ZONE WON'T BE            
ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME TO YOUR FRIENDS IN HAWAII ABOUT. MODELS SHOW             
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE NC/VA BORDER DOOR FROM THE              
NW HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN GRINDING              
TO A HALT AS IT REACHES COASTAL DESTINATIONS. AS FOR BAY OF CAMPECHE            
LOW...STILL LOT'S OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IT MAY GO AND HOW                  
INTENSE (IF ANY) IT MAY OR MAY NOT GET. HPC/TPC/SURROUNDING GULF                
COAST OFFICES CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS FEATURE. "SPURIOUS" AND                 
"CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK" ISSUES HAVE BEEN WIDELY NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM            
AS IT TRY'S TO DO SOMETHING. FOR THE TIME BEING...IN OUR PART OF THE            
CWF WORLD ANYWAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY'S WILL BE THE DOMINANT FIGURES ALONG OUR CWF FOR A WHILE               
LONGER. OTHERWISE "DITTO" FOR NO CHANGES TO PACKAGE.                            
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT SOUTH TO              
SURF CITY.                                                                      
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
MLF/GC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1010 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE AREA AS NORTH-NORTHEAST            
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH PREVALENT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS. LOWER SURFACE           
THETA-E NOSING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO EAST OF AUSTIN             
WHERE CLEARING SKIES/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WERE EVIDENT. WILL TAKE               
SOME TIME FOR THIS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE VICTORIA                 
CROSSROADS REGION SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON               
BUT WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY ACROSS THIS AREA.                    
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER AT 2.15 INCHES AT CRP THIS MORNING. GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE             
WATER IMAGE SHOWS HIGH PWATS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN GULF                
OF MEXICO INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. LOCALLY                   
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW                 
PROFILE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT THE EDGE OF THE UPPER                
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. 12Z RUC/ETA SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 85H MOISTURE               
FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.                
WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL               
BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OUT               
WEST. VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS                 
AT THIS TIME WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
CRP EB 090/073 091/072 093 61101                                                
VCT EB 087/070 092/071 094 4-000                                                
LRD EB 096/074 098/074 099 52202                                                
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
89/TMT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                     
UPDATED...WILL UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS AND INCREASE WINDS.               
GOOD CONVERGENCE...HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND INCREASED GRADIENT HAVE                 
INCREASED THE OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.                                                
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE SOUTH        
OF THE MARITIMES WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND     
TONIGHT.  EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE REGION FOLLOWED      
BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BEHIND       
THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BUILD INTO THE            
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. AFTER       
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE          
REGION...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH QUEBEC TO BRING SHOWERS      
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                       
DISCUSSION...OVERALL PATTERN FEATURES THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE EASTERN          
NA UPPER RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE REGION NEARLY OVR THE LAST        
WEEK. IN ITS STEAD...TYPICAL WRLYS ALF FEATURING SEVERAL S/WVS AND A            
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. FEW CHGS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST PCKG       
WHICH HAD GOOD HANDLE OF WX ELEMENTS THRU PD 6.                                 
TDY AND TNGT: NOTICED THAT SPC PLACED NRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA IN A           
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WE AGREE THAT THE              
STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THIS PTN OF THE FA...WHICH WILL           
BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE             
COLD FRONTAL TIMING...WE HAVE TWO CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR             
WEATHER. THE FIRST IS THAT THE ETA HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING LLVL DEWPOINT        
TEMPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY CAPES BY NEARLY A FACTOR OF TWO OVR THE LAST FEW         
DAYS. THE SECOND IS THAT OUR FA IS STARTING OUT THE DAY WITH H7 TEMPS IN        
THE 8 TO 10 DEG C CATEGORY WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING BELOW 8 DEG C OVR THE         
W UNTIL ABOUT 20Z.                                                              
WITH THIS SAID...FAVORABLE FACTORS DO INCLUDE WEAK LLVL FRONTOGENSIS/CNVRG      
AND MID LVL Q-VEC CNVGR. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RUC SOUNDING DATA IS STILL NOT     
AVAILABLE OUT TO 21Z...THE XPCTED CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME...BUT WE           
ANTICIPATE ACTUAL CAPES MORE IN LINE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE N AND      
W RATHER THAN 3000 J/KG FORECASTED BY THE ETA. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A       
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED SVR. FOR NOW...WE WILL HOLD        
OFF ON ENHANCED TSTM WORDING IN THE ZFP TO ALLOW SPC TO RE-EVALUATE SVR         
POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA IN THEIR LATE MORNING UPDATE. WE WILL ISSUE A            
CONVECTIVE SPS TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TSTMS ACROSS SPCLY NRN       
AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE TDY INTO THIS EVE.                                  
OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE SUNNY START AND VERY WARM LLVL ATMOSPHERE...WE WENT       
A LITTLE ABOVE BLENDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR HI TEMPS TDY.                           
SAT...CONT/D W/CHC POPS EXTREME ERN CWA FOR THE MORNING AS FRONT CLEARS         
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. UPPER S/WV DRIVES THRU THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BY         
THIS TIME...ATMOS DRIES OUT W/DECENT CAA. GUID MIGHT BE UNDER WINDS A BIT.      
ANYWAY...MUCH DRIER & PLEASANT WX. TEMPS AOA 80 W/AID IN DOWNSLOPE EVEN         
AT THE COAST.                                                                   
LOOKING FURTHER OUT: ANOTHER LOW PRES APCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE           
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BEST SHOT FOR SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO BE ACROSS      
THE N & W SUNDAY NIGHT & THEN I TRANSLATED EVERYTHING E ON MONDAY INTO          
MONDAY NIGHT W/FROPA. HIGH PRES PROGGED BY THE LATEST MRF/GFS/GEM & EURO        
GUID TO MOVE OVER THE CWA LATE TUESDAY & REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU THURSDAY.       
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APCHS ON FRIDAY W/THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA.       
MARINE...                                                                       
NO HEADLINES W/THIS PKG. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECMG W         
EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES E OF THE AREA.                                
AVIATION...VSBY 3-5 MILES IN HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS    
MOST OF THE DAY. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER        
WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES BETWEEN 22-02Z     
OVER THE NORTH...00-04Z CENTRAL AND 02-06Z ACROSS DOWNEAST.                     
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
DW                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE SAT INTO SUN.                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TOWARD             
THE WRN LAKES AND A RDG OVER THE WRN CONUS AND EPAC RESULTING IN WNW            
FLOW FROM WRN CANADA TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY AND THE WRN LAKES.                
SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWV WERE EMBEDDED IN FAST FLOW WITH MAIN CLIPPER                
SHRTWV LURKING UPSTREAM OVER CNTRL ALTA. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF               
EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF JAMES BAY TO NRN LK SUPERIOR AND NE MN. A                
WEAK RDG WAS LOCATED FROM WRN ONTARIO INTO MN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROF             
FROM WRN MANITOBA INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF               
FROM ERN ONTARIO INTO UPR MI WHICH HAS BROUGHT EXTENSIVE FALL-LIKE              
STRATOCU OVER THE REGION...WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST. RADAR INDICATED             
LITTLE PCPN THOUGH WITH ONLY A HINT OF A FEW SPRINKLES.                         
TONIGHT...WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND APPROACH OF SFC RDG SKIES            
SHOULD BECOME CLR TO PTCLDY ACRS UPR MI. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL                  
COOLING CONDITIONS...TEMPS WILL FALL TOWARD SEASONABLY COOL GUIDANCE            
VALUES AROUND 40F.                                                              
SAT...MDLS STILL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING EFFECTS OF            
INCOMING CLIPPER AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW EVEN THROUGH THE HGT AND SFC            
FIELDS ARE NOT DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT. THE ETA/CANADIAN DEPICT                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPR LVL DIV AND QG FORCING WITH THE NRN PORTION OF            
THE MID MID LVL TROF AND SWEEP A BAND OF RAIN ACRS UPR MI BTWN                  
15Z-03Z WHILE THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN            
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING UPR MI MAINLY DRY. SO...TIL MDL                 
CONSENSUS IS GREATER HAVE NOT GREATLY ALTERED THE FCST...EXCEPT TO              
HEDGE TOWARD THE GFS BY KEEPING MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS OVER            
THE N AND NW 1/3 OF UPR MI WITH LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH. GENERALLY            
WENT WITH ETA FOR PCPN TIMING. WHILE UPR MI SHOULD REMAIN ON THE                
COLD SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK AND MOST OF QPF PRODUCED BY THE ETA IS               
NON-CONVECTIVE...HAVE RETAINED ISOLD TSRA OVER THE FAR S AND SE                 
GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO H85 LIS. ANY LINGERING -SHRA SHOULD EXIT THE             
EAST BY LATE EVENING.                                                           
SUN...AFTER GAP IN THE PCPN EXPECT ANOTHER 700-500 MB COLD POOL AND             
BATCH OF HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SETTLE INTO UPR MI. STEEP                   
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH DIURNAL                 
HEATING PRODUCING CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SHOULD BE                   
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.                                       
MON...WITH BUILDING HGTS IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LVL TROF AND SFC RDG            
MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LK                   
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 11C SUPPORTS GOING FCST OF               
MID 70S INLAND.                                                                 
TUE-FRI...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM WITH A RDG                    
BUILDING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS WHICH GRADUALLY                
FLATTENS OUT AS SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW AND WRN CANADA MOVES              
TO THE EAST. EXPECT WARMING TREND AS FCST H8 TEMPS FCST FROM NEAR               
14C TUE TO 18C WED...PER GFS/ECMWF. SO...HAVE KEPT FCST MAX TEMPS               
AOA GUIDANCE VALUES. UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM            
THE GULF DUE TO MDLS DIFFERING HANDLING OF SYSTEMS FROM THE WRN                 
GULF. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH BY WED TO SUPPORT             
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SCT/ISOLD LATE DAY CONVECTION...INCREASED                   
CAPPING MAY LIMIT CHANCES TIL FRONT AND MID LVL SHRTWV APPROACH LATE            
WED NIGHT OR THU...PER UKMET/12GFS. FOR NOW...AT LEAST LOW CHANCE               
POPS RETAINED FOR WED AFTERNOON OVER THE W HLF. BEST PCPN DURING THE            
PERIOD EXPECTED WITH FRONT. WHILE THE FRONT MAY SETTLE FAR ENOUGH               
SOUTH OF UPR MI BY LATE IN THE WEEK TO KEEP WX DRY...CONFIDENCE IN              
PLACEMENT BY DAYS 6-7 IS LIMITED. THE ECMWF IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN               
LOWERING HGTS OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES WHILE THE               
12Z GFS PUSHES FRONT EVEN FARTHER S BY FRI WITH HI PRES DOMINATING.             
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE AREA IN MORE ZONAL            
PATTERN AND WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT WITH PCPN TO THE NORTH IS ALSO                
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...GFS TREND AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM 12Z UKMET                  
SUGGESTS DRY WEATHER IS MORE LIKELY.                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2003                                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARDS TO                  
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.                         
SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.  UPPER                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 12Z IS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ALBERTA AND            
WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  MEAGER MOISTURE EXITS ON THE            
H85 12Z CHART.  A CONVERGENT LINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS                
WHERE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED.                                                 
FORECAST...THE RUC MODEL LEAVES THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN KANSAS             
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THUNDERSTORM                       
DEVELOPMENT IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST               
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.  ETA MODEL INDICATES SOME H85 WARM                          
ADVECTION...BUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE AT MID LEVELS.  THE AIR            
MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                     
TONIGHT.  MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON THE MODELS              
AROUND 06Z.                                                                     
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN IOWA DURING               
THROUGH MID MORNING. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL             
STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY BACK NORTH ON             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE             
FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.               
IN LATER PERIODS...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM AS             
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES THE AREA.  CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN                  
OCCURS ON THURSDAY AND ON INDEPENDENCE DAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT                 
MOVES INTO THE REGION.                                                          
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ne