AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
250 PM PST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE AS A               
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. FRONT ON                
SATELLITE APPEARS RESPECTABLE...AND QPF PROBABLY WILL BE A LITTLE               
MORE THAN NCEP PROGS INDICATE TONIGHT. RUC IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP              
ON THE TREND. WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 4K...ONLY SNOW WORRY WILL BE               
TRINITY COUNTY...AND SINCE BULK OF QPF WILL BE ON WEST SIDE...WILL              
KEEP AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY            
MON AS UPPER FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON              
TUE AS E PACIFIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND NW FLOW REGIME SETS UP OVER              
THE REGION. MODELS OK THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN 12Z GFS DIVERGES ON               
THU WITH PRETTY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN               
FORECAST HAVE BOOSTED POPS ON THU TO INDICATE CHCE PRECIP. FALLING              
H8 TEMPS ON THU SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT.                 
NW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SYSTEMS PASSING TO                   
NORTH...SO HAVE SPLIT CWA WITH CHCE NORTH SLT CHCE SOUTH FOR THE                
EXTENDED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON                 
STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...REACHING             
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST            
TODAY...WILL GIVE WAY AS THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT              
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE EAST                  
PACIFIC HIGH WILL THEN REBUILD TOWARD THE AREA BY TUESDAY...BEFORE A            
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE            
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL                   
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE             
WILL REBUILD OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY...BUT WILL GIVE WAY WEDNESDAY AND              
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.                  
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...PT. ST. GEORGE TO PT. ARENA OUT TO 60 NM                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROSE                                                                            
SYNOPSIS:KK                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
329 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE TRACK OF THE SLOW MOVING LOW                
OVER COLORADO AND THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER TODAY AND THIS                 
EVENING.                                                                        
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
SHOWED H5-H4 LOW SPINNING OVER WRN CO WITH POCKETS OF "DRY" SLOTS               
ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW.  FIRST NEARBY LINEAR MCS WAS ACROSS THE               
PANHANDLES OF TX/OK WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER SERN CO AND SOME                
LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME SERN CO.  WIDE RANGE OF SFC DEW                
POINTS WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S NR CO/KS BORDER...20S AROUND              
PALMER DIVIDE AND SINGLE DIGITS IN THE MTS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND SRN             
FOOTHILLS.  SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY.                 
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS SHOWING 2 AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ONE THE               
DECAYING MCS NEAR SERN CO AND TWO A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG THE              
NERN CO FRONT RANGE INTO NRN TELLER/NRN EL PASO COUNTIES.  THIS LINED           
UP WELL WITH THE 06/29 ETA'S(MESO-ETA'S) H7-H6 AND H6-H5                        
FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT WITH A WEAK TROWAL FEATURE ALSO                  
NOTED.                                                                          
TODAY...INTERESTING HOW THE MODELS NOW WANT TO "JUMP" THE H5 LOW TO             
EXTREME SERN CO BY THIS AFTERNOON.  MULTITUDES OF "DRY" SLOTS ARE               
ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW.  HOWEVER...MID LAPSE RATES ARE STILL                  
MODERATELY UNSTABLE(7 C/KM) AND ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...SO           
SHOULD SEE THE LOW FILL IN WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...JUST LIKE            
YESTERDAY. SERN CO WILL HAVE THE LOWEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION                
GIVEN THE MINI INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. 06Z/29 MESO-ETA SHOWING THE H7-            
H6 TROWAL AND FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT OVER TELLER/EL PASO                
COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IT WEAKENS...BUT BY              
THEN THE AIR MASS SHOULD BE MORE CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE.  AREAS HAVING           
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AROUND THE CONTINENTAL            
DIVIDE...TELLER...AND NRN EL PASO COUNTIES.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE           
TRICKY GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. WILL STICK             
WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IN THE MTS AND ROUGHLY 1-5 INCHES IN NRN EL           
PASO CO.  AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS A LITTLE AND MOVES EWD INTO ERN                 
CO/WRN KS...W-NWLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THANKS TO THE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT WINDS.  H7 WINDS PROGGED TO BE 35-45KTS IN ERN CO...SO THESE           
POTENTIAL GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE             
PALMER DIVIDE.  WITH 1-5 INCHES...WINDY-VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...AND             
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW/FOG...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
FOR NRN EL PASO CO FOR TODAY.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS             
TO BE ON TRACK.                                                                 
TONIGHT...WELL VERTICALLY STACK LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS AWAY FROM CO...SHOULD STILL SEE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR              
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING AND THEN TAPERING OFF                          
DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE SAWATCH/MOSQUITO MT RANGES              
WHERE A FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR               
PRECIPITATION GOING.  SFC WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...           
EXCEPT FOR MAYBE FAR SERN CO. STILL POTENTIAL FOR 35-45KT GUSTS IN              
SERN CO WITH 45-55KTS OF WIND AT H7-H75 IN THE EVENING. [METZE]                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY LEAVING FCST AREA BETWEEN            
SYSTEMS.  STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
RIPPLING THROUGH FLOW ALOFT TO WARRANT KEEPING SOME ISOLATED MAINLY             
MTN POPS DURING THE DAY. SFC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN               
PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT MIXING...WITH BREEZY            
NORTH WINDS BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM ON SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY...THEN              
FLOW GOES AROUND TO AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS A TOUCH ACROSS SE PLAINS...THOUGH KEPT IT A                
LITTLE COOLER THAN WARMEST MET GUIDANCE.                                        
MON NIGHT/TUES...MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DIGGING NEXT TROF                     
CURRENTLY OFF THE NW COAST INTO NV/SRN CA BY 12Z TUES.  AS IT DOES...           
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MTNS IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY            
UPSLOPE FLOW.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS AREA.  ETA SHOWS SOME               
WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...AND STRENGTHENING              
INTO TUES. LOW LVLS LOOK PRETTY DRY MON NIGHT STILL...SO HAVE                   
REMOVED POPS FROM INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER BY TUESDAY...                
MOISTURE LAYER THICKENS AND ISOLATED POPS ACROSS SE PLAINS LOOK                 
GOOD. COULD BE SOME HEALTHY SNOW AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHWEST MTNS ONCE                
AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.                                                  
TUES NIGHT/WED NIGHT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AZ AND SRN NM BEFORE 06Z            
GFS LIFTS IT NE INTO TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURS.  LATEST ECMWF LOOKS             
A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS.  AND LATEST MODEL RUNS ALL LOOK A               
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN RUNS FROM YESTERDAY.  AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES            
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCES WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY SPREADING ACROSS             
SE PLAINS TUES NIGHT. HAVE WARMED UP LOWS THIS AREA TUES NIGHT GIVEN            
CLOUD COVER AND WAA. GFS STRENGTHENS SFC LOW ACROSS CEN CO ON WED...            
WHICH LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH GIVEN UPPER LOW POSITION ACROSS SRN/CEN NM.           
THIS MAY ALLOW COLD FRONT TO COME IN SOONER THAN GFS DEPICTS WHICH              
WOULD RESULT IN EARLIER ONSET OF PCPN. GRIDS HAVE CHANCE TYPE POPS              
FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...LOOKS GOOD.  LAPSE RATES            
WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP AND WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...COULD BE SOME HEALTHY              
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. ALL WILL HINGE ON TRACK              
OF UPPER LOW.                                                                   
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF             
DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO CO FOR THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT. AREA REMAINS                
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER QUICK MOVING                     
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NRN CO ON SATURDAY.  GRIDS KEEP GENERALLY                
ISOLATED POPS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND DIDN'T MAKE ANY            
CHANGES TO THESE FORECAST PERIOD. -KT                                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...ZONE 084...NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY...              
   UNTIL 5PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
830 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...JUST A LITTLE                 
WARMER AND A LITTLE MORE HUMID.  AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUING TO           
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OFF THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
EVENING WITH 00Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING SOUTHEAST FLOW UP THROUGH              
ABOUT 10000 FEET.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT OVERNIGHT             
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILING ONCE AGAIN.  CURRENT FORECAST               
LOOKS GOOD AND NO EVENING UPDATE PLANNED.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE KIND OF VARIABLE OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS                   
EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL ARE ANYWHERE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT            
AROUND 10 KNOTS.  LATEST RUC...AS WELL AS PREVIOUS MODELS...INDICATE            
THAT WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE COASTAL               
WATERS AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TONIGHT.  THIS STILL                
LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO                 
CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR EVENING UPDATE.                             
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO             
  60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.                                                  
$$                                                                              
PRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
230 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS REGION MARRED ONLY BY SOME CIRRUS              
CLOUDS SPILLING OVER RIDGE. TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 70...DEW POINTS                
FROM MID 40S SE ALA TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST. WINDS GENERALLY SE 15            
MPH WITH GUSTS TO ABOVE 20 MPH ACROSS PANHANDLE.                                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...AS EXPECTED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS. AT            
UPPER LEVELS DOMINANT RIDGE OVER ERN CONUS WITH AXIS OVERHEAD...AND             
EQUALLY DEEP TROF OVR WRN CONUS. INTENSE SHORT WAVE...LO AND STRONG             
MID/UPR JET MAX ACROSS SRN PLAINS MOVG NE TOWARD LWR MISS VALLEY. LO            
TO FILL AS IT MOVES NEWD. AT SURFACE HI ALONG S CAROLINA COAST TO               
MOVE ESE INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN TO VICINITY OF BERMUDA LATE             
TOMORROW. ASSOCD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WWD BACK ACROSS LOCAL AREA.                 
RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY LOCAL SOUNDINGS (0.36 PWAT) ATTEST TO CHAMBER            
OF COMMERCE WINTER WX...ESPECIALLY NOTED BY WARM TEMPS MENTIONED                
ABOVE. LO ACROSS SRN PLAINS WITH ASSOCD COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED                
SEWD. THE COMBO OF HI MOVG IN ATLC AND APPROACHING LO SYS YIELDING              
LOCALLY VEERING WINDS AND TIGHTENING GRADIENTS ACCOUNTING FOR BREEZY            
AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. SRN SECTIONS OF UPR RIDGE WILL ONLY SHIFT              
SLIGHTLY EWD NEXT 48 HRS WITH CONT RISING HEIGHTS. NO POPS (SILENT              
TENS) FORECASTED SHORT TERM WITH CONT MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS FROM                
MID-UPR 40S INLAND BIG BEND TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS             
TOMORROW EDGES UP TO LOW-MID 70S. FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES WITH               
CONT VEERING WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND HIGHS MID-UPR                  
70S..POSSIBLY REACHING 80 IN A FEW SPOTS EAST OF APALACH RIVER. ONLY            
CONCERN IS POSSIBLY OF COASTAL FOG WITH MOIST SLY WINDS RIDING OVER             
COOLER GULF WATERS TONIGHT. MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON THIS BUT MAY BE            
WORTH MONITORING THIS EVENING IN CASE FOG NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO                  
COASTAL ZONE OR NEARSHORE WATERS.                                               
ABOVE LO TO MOVE FORM MID PLAINS TO UPR MISS VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO              
SE CANADA BY TUESDAY. ALTHO NRN EXTENT OF RIDGE FLATTENED...SRN                 
SECTION REMAINS INTACT. COLD FRONT TO REACH NCNTRL AL-GA BEFORE                 
ABRUPTLY BANGING INTO NOSE OF RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP FRONT FROM ANY              
FURTHER SWD MOVEMENT..IN FACT NOSING RIDGE WNW MAY ACTUALLY SHUNT IT            
BACK NWD. SOME ASSOCD LEADING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS MAY             
REACH NW QUARTER OF CWFA MON-TUE. OTHERWISE...CONT WARM TEMPERATURES            
IN MID 70S TO AROUND 80 RANGE THRU AT LEAST MID WORK WEEK. NEXT                 
FRONT HAS GOOD CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO OUR AREA EARLY WEEKEND. STRONG            
SHORT WAVE MOVES EWD FROM PACIF CONUS WITH STRONG GRADIENT                      
ESTABLISHED BETWEEN HI OVR ATLC AND STRONG LOW GREAT LAKES                      
AREA...GOOD PUSH FOR SWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT TO ARRIVE NW CWFA LATE ON            
FRI AND ACROSS COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT. WITH STRONG GRADIENT AND               
H85 JET...BREEZY/GUSTY CONDS AHEAD OF FRONT ON THURS. THIS ADDRESSED            
IN EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND THEN CHANCE SHOWERS/ISOLD                
TSTMS ON FRIDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MID-AFTERNOON BUOYS SHOW OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS 15 TO 20             
KNOTS WITH 5-6 FOOT SEAS. THIS MESHES WELL WITH EXTENDED FORECAST               
AND INHERITED SCEC. MOBILE BUOY 23 KNOTS WITH 9 FOOT SEAS...SOME OF             
THIS MAY TRANSLATE EWD (ESPECIALLY SEAS) AND WRN WATERS MAY NEED A              
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TOMORROW.                                       
&&                                                                              
FIRE WX...RED FLAG CONTS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AND NO                         
WARNINGS/WATCHES ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 47 75 52 78/ 00 05 10 05                                                    
PFN 54 72 56 76/ 00 10 10 10                                                    
DHN 52 74 56 76/ 00 20 20 20                                                    
ABY 48 75 54 78/ 00 10 20 20                                                    
VLD 50 77 54 80/ 00 05 10 05                                                    
CTY 49 79 53 80/ 00 05 05 05                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BLOCK                                                                           
______________________________________________________________                  
.PREV. DISCUSSION...                                                            
955 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE               
LOWER 50S AND WINDS EAST AROUND 10. ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO                  
CHANGES NEEDED. RH VALUES ARE STILL 50 PERCENT OR ABOVE. AS AFTN                
TEMPS CONT TO RISE EXPCT THESE TO FALL DRAMATICALLY TO VERIFY RFW.              
OFF SHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE                
SCEC RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 6 FEET...SO WILL KEEP SCEC ON UPDATE.                 
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AFD/16                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS                                                     
********************************************************                        
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION.                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF              
US EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA. OUT W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER UT AND CO.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER              
SC RIDGING SWD INTO FL AND MUCH OF THE ERN GULF.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE.                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT            
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WRN LOW WILL SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK NE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY'S END MON             
BEFORE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA ON TUE. THIS LOW WILL FLATTEN THE NRN            
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER              
FL (>=588 DM). THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLANTIC                  
TONIGHT AND THEN SET UP SHOP JUST S OF BERMUDA FOR THE REST OF THE              
WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS N FL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS               
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW              
FROM REACHING THIS FAR SE. ITS CLOSEST APPROACH APPEARS TO BE NRN AL            
AND GA ON TUE. POPS WILL BE LOW MON THROUGH TUE RANGING FROM 20 NW              
TO LESS THAN 10 SE. IN ADDITION TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY                  
GIVING US OUR FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER JUST IN TIME               
FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MAR 1).                                 
.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT.                                             
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS IS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM             
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON FRI AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT.            
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM. IN FACT, WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE 80 DEGREE              
MARK LATER IN THE WEEK AT TLH (MOST LIKELY WED AND/OR THU). THE LAST            
TIME WE HIT 80 WAS NOV 18TH.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA             
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION              
HEADLINE FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS INCREASE ANY HIGHER BEFORE PRESS            
TIME, WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. AFTER E WINDS TODAY, A                
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SELY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE               
THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLAN TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE WATERS DOWN JUST A             
BIT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS              
UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RECENTLY POPULATED RH GRIDS SHOW 1-2 HOUR DURATIONS             
AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNED AREA. DISPERSION            
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, SO THE WARNING WILL BE LEFT IN                  
PLACE. WHILE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE HIGH IN THE ERN PANHANDLE, RH              
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET THERE.                                                 
UPDATE...DRY ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.               
THE RH ACTUALLY DIPPED DOWN TO 35 PERCENT AT TLH BRIEFLY AT 4 AM.               
AFTER LOOKING AT SOME RUC AND WS ETA FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER                   
FORECASTER HAS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING WWD TO INCLUDE            
HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. WE MAY            
ACTUALLY MEET CRITERIA BASED SOLELY ON RH DURATIONS IN THE BIG BEND.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 73 46 75 52 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
PFN 69 54 70 56 / 00 05 10 10                                                   
DHN 71 51 74 55 / 00 05 20 20                                                   
ABY 71 48 75 53 / 00 05 10 20                                                   
VLD 74 49 76 53 / 00 00 05 10                                                   
CTY 75 47 78 53 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOOL/18                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
955 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE               
LOWER 50S AND WINDS EAST AROUND 10. ZONES ARE ON TRACK WITH NO                  
CHANGES NEEDED. RH VALUES ARE STILL 50 PERCENT OR ABOVE. AS AFTN                
TEMPS CONT TO RISE EXPCT THESE TO FALL DRAMATICALLY TO VERIFY RFW.              
OFF SHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE                
SCEC RANGE WITH SEAS NEAR 6 FEET...SO WILL KEEP SCEC ON UPDATE.                 
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AFD/16                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS                                                     
********************************************************                        
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER SECTION.                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF              
US EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE NWD TO THE GREAT LAKES. WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA. OUT W, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER UT AND CO.            
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER              
SC RIDGING SWD INTO FL AND MUCH OF THE ERN GULF.                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE.                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NEXT            
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WRN LOW WILL SWING OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK NE TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY'S END MON             
BEFORE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA ON TUE. THIS LOW WILL FLATTEN THE NRN            
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH OVER              
FL (>=588 DM). THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLANTIC                  
TONIGHT AND THEN SET UP SHOP JUST S OF BERMUDA FOR THE REST OF THE              
WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS N FL. THE STRENGTH OF THIS               
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW              
FROM REACHING THIS FAR SE. ITS CLOSEST APPROACH APPEARS TO BE NRN AL            
AND GA ON TUE. POPS WILL BE LOW MON THROUGH TUE RANGING FROM 20 NW              
TO LESS THAN 10 SE. IN ADDITION TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY                  
GIVING US OUR FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING LIKE WEATHER JUST IN TIME               
FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING (MAR 1).                                 
.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT.                                             
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AS IS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM             
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON FRI AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SAT.            
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM. IN FACT, WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE 80 DEGREE              
MARK LATER IN THE WEEK AT TLH (MOST LIKELY WED AND/OR THU). THE LAST            
TIME WE HIT 80 WAS NOV 18TH.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA             
AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION              
HEADLINE FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS INCREASE ANY HIGHER BEFORE PRESS            
TIME, WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY. AFTER E WINDS TODAY, A                
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SELY WINDS WILL COMMENCE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE               
THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLAN TO ADJUST WINDS OVER THE WATERS DOWN JUST A             
BIT FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BUT WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS              
UP TO ADVISORY LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RECENTLY POPULATED RH GRIDS SHOW 1-2 HOUR DURATIONS             
AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARNED AREA. DISPERSION            
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S, SO THE WARNING WILL BE LEFT IN                  
PLACE. WHILE DISPERSION WILL ALSO BE HIGH IN THE ERN PANHANDLE, RH              
CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET THERE.                                                 
UPDATE...DRY ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.               
THE RH ACTUALLY DIPPED DOWN TO 35 PERCENT AT TLH BRIEFLY AT 4 AM.               
AFTER LOOKING AT SOME RUC AND WS ETA FORECASTS...FIRE WEATHER                   
FORECASTER HAS DECIDED TO EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING WWD TO INCLUDE            
HOLMES...WASHINGTON...JACKSON...CALHOUN AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. WE MAY            
ACTUALLY MEET CRITERIA BASED SOLELY ON RH DURATIONS IN THE BIG BEND.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 73 46 75 52 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
PFN 69 54 70 56 / 00 05 10 10                                                   
DHN 71 51 74 55 / 00 05 20 20                                                   
ABY 71 48 75 53 / 00 05 10 20                                                   
VLD 74 49 76 53 / 00 00 05 10                                                   
CTY 75 47 78 53 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM TO SUNSET FOR FLZ09>11-13-16>19-26>29-34.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOOL/18                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
803 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DRIER AIR PUNCHING INTO CWFA FROM NORTHEAST...WITH DIMINISHING                  
RETURNS ON RADAR ACCELERATING IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.  HOWEVER...                
LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.  WIND GUSTS TO 45             
KTS OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE AND IN EASTERN COLORADO.  ASOS                      
VISIBILITIES STILL AT 1/2SM...PROBABLY LOWER BASED ON WHAT HUMAN                
EYES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE.  WILL CONTINUE CURRENT BLIZZARD WARNING             
WEST OF A CULBERTSON NEBRASKA TO OAKLEY KANSAS TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE             
WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS NORTHWEST              
WINDS KICK UP WHAT LITTLE SNOW THERE WILL BE IN THE EAST AND WITH               
FREEZING OF ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES.  HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL               
LIQUID PRECIP REPORTS APPROACHING 3/4 INCH FROM CO-OP OBSERVERS.                
ENTWISTLE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
311 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
LAST MINUTE CHANGES DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER. PLEASE SEE                 
HIGHLIGHT SECTION BELOW FOR CHANGES TO WINTER WARNINGS AND                      
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
AT 19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN             
KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE            
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING A CENTER NEAR NW                   
KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO ZONES AND RAIN OR             
RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE.                                                        
PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS               
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z              
THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE                
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW               
AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING                
AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS                 
WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY              
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE              
SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE              
AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS             
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN                
WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE                   
RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL            
MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA                  
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A             
BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING                
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH               
RANGE AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE               
REST OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN            
FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.              
ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD                
CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD               
WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING             
DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35            
MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE               
AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS            
SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH             
1100 AM MONDAY.  RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG              
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER              
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT              
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                
COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.                         
NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND                  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A             
WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED.                                                   
DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH             
MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND              
WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON              
DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER            
WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW            
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.                                                          
FS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST (7 AM CST) FOR                          
      CHEYENNE... SHERMAN...WALLACE...GREELEY...WICHITA...                      
      LOGAN...THOMAS AND RAWLINS COUNTY.                                        
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 7 AM CST FOR DECATUR...                   
      NORTON...SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...GOVE COUNTY.                                 
.NE...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST (7 AM CST) FOR DUNDY...                 
      HITCHCOCK COUNTY.                                                         
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY.             
.CO...BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MST FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...                
      CHEYENNE COUNTY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
311 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LAST MINUTE CHANGES DUE TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER.              
PLEASE SEE HIGHLIGHT SECTION BELOW FOR CHANGES TO WINTER WARNINGS               
AND ADVISORIES.                                                                 
AT  19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW                                  
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG              
JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING            
A CENTER NEAR NW KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO              
ZONES AND RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE.                                      
PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS               
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z              
THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE                
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW               
AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING                
AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS                 
WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY              
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE              
SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE              
AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS             
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN                
WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE                   
RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL            
MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA                  
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A             
BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING                
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE         
AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF             
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN                    
FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.              
ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD                
CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD               
WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING             
DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35            
MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE               
AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS            
SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH             
1100 AM MONDAY.  RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG              
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER              
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT              
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                
COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.                         
NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND                  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A             
WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED.                                                   
DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH             
MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND              
WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON              
DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER            
WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW            
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE...SHERMAN...WALLACE...              
      GREELEY...WICHITA...LOGAN...THOMAS AND RAWLINS COUNTY.                    
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR DECATUR...NORTON...                   
      SHERIDAN...GRAHAM...GOVE COUNTY.                                          
.NE...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY...HITCHCOCK COUNTY.                    
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RED WILLOW COUNTY.                    
.CO...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON...CHEYENNE                 
      COUNTY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
244 PM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AT  19Z THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW                    
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG              
JET ROUNDING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. PROFILER DATA SHOWING            
A CENTER NEAR NW KANSAS. METARS/RADAR DETECTING SNOW OVER COLORADO              
ZONES AND RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE.                                      
PREFER THE ETA POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AT 18Z TODAY. THE GFS IS               
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ETA. BY 12Z              
THE 700MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR LINCOLN NEBRASKA. OMEGA LIFTS NORTH              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE                
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. ADDITIONAL SNOW               
AMOUNTS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WARNING                
AREA WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. PROBLEM AREA IS                 
WHETHER RED WILLOW COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY              
AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS THERE APPEAR TO BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. FOR THE              
SAFE SIDE...WILL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THERE              
AND ONE COUNTY SOUTH INTO DECATUR COUNTY. AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS             
SHOULD OCCUR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE WHEN                
WILL AREAS CURRENTLY GETTING RAIN CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. THE                   
RUC/MESOETA 850MB WINDS/TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT THE COLD AIR WILL            
MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA                  
SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z MONDAY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER A             
BLIZZARD WARNING WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT OVER THE CURRENT WARNING                
AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE         
AROUND 03Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF             
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 28 DEGREES IN THE FAR WESTERN                    
FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.              
ALSO LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT INDICATES HIGH POSSIBLITY OF BLIZZARD                
CONDTIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA. SO WILL MAKE A BLIZZARD               
WARNING FOR EASTERN COLORADO ZONES EXCEPT CHEYENNE COUNTY INCLUDING             
DUNDY NEB AND CHEYENNE KS/SHERMAN KS. WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 25 TO 35            
MPH RANGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN DECREASE TO BREEZY IN THE               
AFTERNOON. BASED ON WIND SPEEDS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS            
SOUTH OF THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT (00Z-18Z MONDAY) THROUGH             
1100 AM MONDAY.  RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG              
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER              
ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT              
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY/NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LOW.                                                
COORDINATED WITH BOU...LBF...DDC ON WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.                         
NOTE TO THE MID SHIFT...LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THAT A WIND                  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY FROM 12Z TO 18Z FOR AREAS WHERE A             
WINTER HIGHLIGHT HAS EXPIRED.                                                   
DAYS 4-7...FEW CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD ANOTHER DAY. A WEAK TROUGH             
MOVES THROUGH ON DAY 7. DUE TO QUESTIONABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND              
WEAK DYNAMICS WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. TROUGH MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ON              
DAY 4 LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH TO GIVE US MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP. ANOTHER            
WEAK TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT QUESTIONABLE AGAIN SO WILL KEEP JUST BELOW            
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...BLIZZAR WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE...SHERMAN COUNTY.                    
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RAWLINS...DECATUR...                  
      THOMAS COUNTY.                                                            
      WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 1100 AM MST MONDAY...WALLACE...             
      LOGAN...GOVE...SHERIDAN...WICHITA...GREELEY COUNTIES.                     
.NE...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY COUNTY.                                
      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HITCHCOCK...                          
      RED WILLOW COUNTY.                                                        
.CO...BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA...KIT CARSON COUNTY.                    
      WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH 1100 AM MST MONDAY...CHEYENNE               
      COUNTY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
320 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT AND              
THEN HOW HARD THE WIND WILL BE ON MONDAY.                                       
SURFACE LOW OVER SERN COLO EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD DEEPENED TO 992             
MB AND MOVED NORTHEAST TO THE VICINITY OF KHLC.  A FAIRLY TIGHT                 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS SURROUNDING THE SWRN KS REGION AND THIS WAS               
RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH OVER PARTS OF ERN COLO.                 
RADAR LOOPS SHOW THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD THAT HAS COVERED THE CENTRAL            
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WAS RETREATING            
TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT. SCATTERED             
SHOWERS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAD SPROUTED OVER THE            
NORTHERN PANHANDLE REGION AND THIS CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WAS MOVING             
RAPIDLY EASTWARD.                                                               
FOR THIS EVENING WILL HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE IN                    
PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.  AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS                
NORTHEASTWARD, THINK THAT SOME WRAPAROUND R-S- COULD CONTINUE                   
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH GARDEN                
CITY TO LACROSSE.  THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A             
FEW HOURS IN THE AREA FROM ASHLAND TO PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE.                 
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA                
FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF 800 J/KG            
CAPE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER SOUTH OF MED LODGE.  THINK THAT PRECIP              
CHANCES IN THIS AREA WILL BE DIMINISHING BY 00Z SO WILL LET NOWCASTS            
HANDLE PRECIP IN THAT AREA.                                                     
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AS THE SFC             
LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.  FEEL THAT POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA WINDS WILL NOT QUITE BE MET AS WE MOVE INTO THE NIGHTTIME              
HOURS.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.  FOR NOW HAVE                   
INCREASED WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT.  KEPT                
THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL                
STILL EXISTS FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THAT AREA.  GRADIENT                
RELAXES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE              
BREEZY/WINDY.                                                                   
ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT OVER THE                
PREVIOUS FCST AS WIND/CLOUDS WILL MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING.                 
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
DID NOT FEEL LIKE MAKING A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED                 
FORECAST, GIVEN QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH EXTEND/DURATION OF              
PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS            
PRECIPITATION TYPE.  THUS, IN AN EFFORT TO LIMIT A FLIP-FLOPPING                
FORECAST, DECIDED TO KEEP WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY GOING.  I DID INCREASE            
POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE           
BEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AS DECENT             
WARM CONVEYER PLUME HAS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH AS UPPER            
STORM RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES.  ONCE THE STORM MOVES EAST             
INTO TEXAS, THERE ARE STILL QUESTION MARKS AS TO THE INTEGRITY AND              
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FROM WEDNESDAY ON.  NO CHANGES MADE TO                      
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC 34 50 26 48 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
GCK 31 49 23 47 / 30 00 00 00                                                   
EHA 31 54 24 47 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
LBL 32 54 26 48 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
HYS 33 46 23 46 / 40 00 00 00                                                   
P28 37 55 29 48 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GERARD/UMSCHEID                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1029 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BAND OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED THIS                  
MORNING FROM CHEYENNE COUNTY KANSAS SOUTH TO WALLACE COUNTY...NEAR              
THE SURFACE LOW WHICH MORE OR LESS IS ON TOP OF GOODLAND. SNOW                  
BURSTS HAVE REDUCED THE VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS A MILE AT                       
TIMES...BUT WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S NO SNOW WILL              
ACCUMULATE UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE                 
GRIDS TO REFLECT THE PHASE CHANGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN                  
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN WESTERN ZONES...PROBABLY DUE TO EVAPORATIVE                
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION.                                      
HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. FIRST BAND OF                   
CONVECTION STAYED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND               
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST. HINTS OF A SECOND BAND FORMING              
WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE FROM BURLINGTON              
TO GARDEN CITY. HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE HEATING AT ALL AND MEAGER               
CAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 100 AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WILL BE VERY                
DIFFICULT TO GET CONVECTION INITIATED. SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST RUC              
WHICH KEEPS CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
205 AM MST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WINDS TODAY                               
AND TONIGHT...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE                   
NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.                                            
AT 09Z LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING LIGHT RAIN PUSHING NORTHEAST                 
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP             
BEST HANDLED BY THE RUC/ETA QPF FORECASTS. SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED              
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...BEST HANDLED BY THE 06Z ETA. SINCE THINGS             
LOOK SO GOOD FOR SNOWFALL ONE HAS TO WONDER WHAT COULD GO WRONG.                
WELL...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER TEXAS               
AND THREAT OF THEM ROBBING OUR MOISTURE SOURCE.                                 
TODAY/TONIGHT...MODELS IN BAD AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY             
BUT AT DAYS END AGREE ON PLACING THE CENTER OF OUR STORM SYSTEM OVER            
NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS. AHEAD OF IT...COPIOUS MOISTURE (FOR LATE FEB) AND          
LIFT FROM UPPER LOW GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF            
THE AREA. ETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO           
FOR THAT REASON AND COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES I HAVE                
INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FURTHER WEST POPS ARE A BIT            
LOWER UNTIL NORTHWEST WINDS AND RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR MOVE IN LATE           
IN THE DAY...CHANGING PRECIP TO SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. FOR             
TONIGHT...STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD OMAHA WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW...               
BLOWING SNOW...AND LIKELY NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HAVE UPGRADED               
CURRENT WATCH TO A WARNING AND ADDED ADJACENT COUNTIES TO A WINTER              
WEATHER ADVISORY. ETA/RUC SIMILAR IN 3 HOURLY TEMPS TODAY SO USED               
THEM ACCORDINGLY.                                                               
MONDAY...WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER               
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA THROUGH 18Z BEFORE ENDING AS STORM                
SYSTEM RACES NORTHEAST. EXPECT SOME SNOWCOVER AND WILL USE THE ETA              
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THAT DEPICTION. MINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE              
BELOW GUIDANCE AS WELL GIVEN INCOMING SURFACE HIGH AND LIGHTER                  
WINDS.                                                                          
TUESDAY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA DIGS INTO THE               
FAR SOUTHWEST STATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE APPROACHING LOW              
WILL CREATE SOME MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS. AS THE SYSTEM INCHES                   
CLOSER TUESDAY NIGHT LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE. THIS...IN             
COMBINATION WITH VARIOUS EJECTING DISTURBANCES FROM THE PARENT                  
UPPER LOW WILL BE WORTHY OF MENTIONING SOME PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT.               
WEDNESDAY...UPPER SYSTEM CRUISES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE CREATING            
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.                                                
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...NO CHANGES.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY. WINTER                   
     WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR RAWLINS...THOMAS...SHERMAN COUNTY.            
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR DUNDY COUNTY. WINTER                      
     WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HITCHCOCK COUNTY.                             
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR YUMA COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER               
     ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK/DDT                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
940 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REGENERATION OF SHOWERS OCCURRING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
OVER SE TX...AND MOVING BACK INTO OUR AREA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING                  
STRIKES OBSERVED...SO ADDED THUNDER TO MUCH OF AREA. DROPPED LAKE               
WIND ADVISORY TO THE EAST...WIND GUSTS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY UNDER               
20 MPH...DESPITE WINNFIELD PROFILER INCREASES LOW LEVEL JET A NOTCH.            
RUC AND MESOETA SHOW VERTICAL VELOCITIES STRONG THRU MIDNIGHT...                
PERHAPS ABATING SLIGHTLY BY MORNING. UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS              
HAS SLOWED DOWN AS WELL...JUSTIFYING RAISING POPS SLIGHTLY.                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  53  70  55  68 /  50  30  20  20                                           
MLU  56  72  57  68 /  60  30  20  20                                           
TXK  49  70  50  65 /  50  20  20  20                                           
TYR  48  72  53  67 /  30  30  20  20                                           
LFK  53  68  57  70 /  50  30  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VII                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INTO MON ARE PCPN TIMING WITH STORM                
MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MIN TEMPS.                                   
WV IMAGERY...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED VERTICALLY STACKED            
LOW OVER NRN KS WITH ONE STRONG VORT LOBE ROTATING N THROUGH WRN IA.            
UPR LVL DIV/DIFFLUENCE...QCONV/DPVA AND STRONG H8 THETA-E ADVECTION             
SUPPORTED BAND OF -RA THAT WAS MOVING NNE FROM IA AND SRN MN.                   
HOWEVER...AS DYNAMICS WEAKENED A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE                      
LOW...PCPN WAS DIMINISHING AS IT MOVED INTO DRY AIRMASS BLO 700                 
MB...PER 00Z KGRB/KMPX SNDGS.                                                   
RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z ETA/RUC SUGGEST PCPN ONSET INTO UPR MI WILL BE             
DELAYED AS INITIAL BAND CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. EXPECT PCPN TO                   
DEVELOP LATER MON MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON AS H3 JET OVER THE SRN             
PLAINS MOVES TOWARD WRN LK SUPERIOR. SO...HAVE MOVED PCPN TIMING                
BACK ABOUT 3-5 HRS...WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS EARLY...THEN                       
PERIODS OF RAIN BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WERE                 
RELATIVELY LIGHT...MID CLOUDS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S                  
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM               
03Z READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. EXCEPTION IS NEAR LK            
MI...TEMPS HAD DIPPER TO AROUND 30 AT KISQ/KESC. EXPECT PCPN TO                 
ARRIVE MON AFTER TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED ABV FREEZING AS ESE WINDS                   
INCREASE MON MORNING.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TIMING WITH SYSTEM OVER PLAINS               
CURRENT WEATHER...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC 500 MB HEIGHT              
ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO UPPER              
MICHIGAN WITH A NEGATIVELY TROUGH OVER SW KS INTO OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER             
SHRTWV TROUGH CAN BE SEEN OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON STATE...THE               
KICKER SYSTEM FOR THE TROUGH IN SE COLORADO. THUNDERSTORMS WERE                 
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KS AND OK AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH WHILE A               
DRYSLOT WAS APPARENT OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL               
MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR...EXTENDING UP            
INTO MN/WESTERN ONTARIO. TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT EVIDENT IN THE LOW             
LEVELS AT 12Z. GRB AND DVN HAD 14 AND 23C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS                  
RESPECTIVELY WHERE AS MPX AND OAX HAD AROUND 1C. THIS LACK OF                   
MOISTURE HAS KEPT MOST OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE U.P. AS HIGH CLOUDS               
PER OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000 MB               
LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR GOODLAND KS. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDED            
TO DLH AND THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO TEXARKANA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH            
WAS ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...ALLOWING WINDS             
TO GO N OR NE FOR LAKESHORE AREAS AND COOLING TEMPS DOWN FROM NEAR              
50. LAKE BREEZES ALSO COOLING TEMPS DOWN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...NOW              
AROUND 40. IMT...IWD AND SAW STILL IN THE LOW 50S THOUGH WHERE LAKE             
BREEZES HAVE NOT REACHED THEM YET. THESE TEMPS ARE 9C ABOVE THE                 
CURRENT 850MB TEMPS. RERMQT COMING OUT AGAIN AROUND 5 PM FOR A                  
RECORD HIGH TIE.                                                                
TONIGHT...BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO WESTERN               
MISSOURI CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AS THE SFC LOW HEAD TO LINCOLN                    
NEBRASKA BY 12Z. THE RAIN IS AIDED BY DPVA FROM THE SHRTWV TROUGH               
AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY 30 TO 40 KT JET AT 850MB BEHIND IT. THE MAIN              
QUESTION IS WHEN THE RAIN WILL REACH THE U.P.. 12Z ETA'S 700MB OMEGA            
FIELD APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE RAIN IS NOW...AND              
FOLLOWING IT SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WI AT 12Z.            
THEREFORE WILL TRIM BACK -RA CHANCE TO THE WI BORDER ZONES AND PUSH             
THE TIMING TO AFTER 09Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE RAIN HOLDS               
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z. SE WINDS DURING THE NIGHT WILL ALSO ALLOW                  
MOISTURE TO GET PULLED OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...CREATING AREAS OF FOG.            
CURRENT AREA OF FOG IN GRIDS FROM SE MARQUETTE/S ALGER AND THE LAKE             
MICHIGAN ZONES LOOKS GOOD. GIVEN THE THICKENING CLOUDS...HIGHER                 
DEWPOINTS AND WIND...FIGURE TEMPS WILL NOT FALL MUCH TONIGHT.                   
CURRENT LOWS IN THE MID 30S SEEM REASONABLE WITH THE WARMEST                    
READINGS FAR WEST WHERE SE WINDS DOWNSLOPE.                                     
MONDAY...RAIN BAND MOVES DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...             
GIVING THE U.P. FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN PER ETA             
QPF. WAS SOME CONCERN THAT THE WEST MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN...BUT            
IT APPEARS THAT BOTH THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE                    
FREEZING. NEXT CONCERN IS WHAT HAPPENS BEHIND THE RAIN. UNTIL THE               
DRYSLOT COMES UP HERE...DEEP MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT/RAINFALL                    
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL                 
CREATE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG. DRYSLOT ITSELF REACHES MENOMINEE               
COUNTY BY 00Z WHERE 850-500MB LAPSE RATES JUMP UP TO 7 TO 7.5C/KM.              
HOWEVER...ELEVATED CAPES ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE INVERSION TOP HAVING            
A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AROUND 6C. GIVEN FORCING FROM UPPER LOW...SOME            
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 110 KT JET OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS             
AND INDIANA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SFC...WILL CONTINUE               
THE MENTION OF SCT RW AND ISO TS. TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES                 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...LOW 40S IS              
ABOUT AS HIGH AS THE TEMPS WILL GO.                                             
MONDAY NIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF TO             
THE EAST BY 06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH ENTERS WESTERN LOWER MI.                   
DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS                  
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE HEADING OFF TO THE NE DURING TUESDAY               
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE HURON.                  
PRECIPITATION TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW WITHIN THE BAND...WHICH               
SOME MAY CLIP THE WESTERN U.P. BTWN 06Z AND 12Z. QPF AMOUNTS ARE                
AROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM THE ETA (AIDED BY STRONG OMEGAS                      
INTERSECTING THE MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) WHICH WITH A 10 TO 1              
RATIO WOULD YIELD 2 TO 3 INCHES. CENTRAL U.P. LOOKS TO GET                      
DRY-SLOTTED...BUT AGAIN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH             
TO PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE. AS TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING                       
OVERNIGHT...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR...SO INCLUDED THAT IN               
THE FCST TOO.                                                                   
AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...MAY SEE SOME RISES WITH RIVERS DUE TO RAINFALL            
AND SNOWMELT RUN OFF...BUT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW                      
40S AND LIGHT WINDS...RUNOFF SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF CONTROL.                     
TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW CROSSES UPPER            
MICHIGAN IN THE MORNING...ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO FALL TO -6C...NOT             
YET COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT. NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AS WEAK RIDGING           
BUILDS IN BEHIND SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO QUEBEC. ONLY FORCING              
APPEARS TO BE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC FRONT...AND WITH THE LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR              
FLURRIES...BUT NOTHING THAT WILL ACCUMULATE TO MUCH. TEMPS OF COURSE            
COOLER THAN MONDAY...BUT STILL THINK HIGHS CAN GET INTO THE LOW TO              
MID 30S AS 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT TOO COOL AND WINDS COMING OFF OF                 
THE 1C WATER TEMPERATURE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                      
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOOKS UNEVENTFUL AS THE NORTHERN                 
STREAM TURNS ZONAL. MUCH MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHERE            
THE SHRTWV NOW OFF THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST FORMS AN UPPER LOW OVER           
THE GREAT BASIN. READ EXTENDED DISCUSSION BELOW FOR EFFECTS OF THIS             
LOW. 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND -6C SO NO LAKE EFFECT TO WORRY ABOUT.            
THE ONLY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IS THAT SECONDARY COLD                
FRONT THAT STALLS OUT OVER THE U.P...PERHAPS PROVIDING ENOUGH                   
CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES WIHT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.               
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.                                                      
EXTENDED (THU THROUGH SUN)...GFS ENSEMBLES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ON              
THE PATTERN...WITH LITTLE SPREAD FOR THU AND FRI...BUT THEN MORE                
SPREAD SAT AND SUN AS THE E PACIFIC RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND FLOW TURNS            
ZONAL. LIKE WAS STATED YESTERDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE                
SYSTEM PROGGED TO GO FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WOULD END UP            
GOING FURTHER NW. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND 06Z GFS...ECWMF AND UKMET               
NOW SHOW THE TRACK GOING FROM OKLAHOMA ON THU TO LOWER MI ON FRI.               
ECWMF THE FURTHEST NW...HAVING A 985 MB LOW OVER DOOR COUNTY WI AT              
12Z FRI. AFTER COORDINATION WITH HPC...WILL FOLLOW THE 06Z GFS.                 
12Z GFS SIMILAR TO THE 06Z RUN. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN LAKE           
SUPERIOR WED EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV IN THE ZONAL NORTHERN             
STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE U.P. DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE MAIN BRUNT            
OF ARCTIC AIR TO STAY UP TO THE NORTH WITH TEMPS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR             
ONLY FALLING TO -10C (NOT -20C LIKE YESTERDAY'S RUNS). UPPER LOW OVER           
THE GREAT BASIN ON WED EJECTS OUT IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHRTWV                
DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER OK            
THU...WHICH MOVES RAPIDLY UP TOWARDS LOWER MI FRI. TWO SCENARIOS FOR            
UPPER MI: IF THE 06Z/12Z GFS PANS OUT...850MB TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C              
COMBINED WITH N WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WOULD BRING A DECENT PERIOD OF             
LAKE ENHANCEMENT WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW IS GOING. HOWEVER...IF THE             
ECMWF OR NEW 12Z UKMET PANS OUT...LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN              
FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR NOW WILL PUT IN A CHANCE            
OF SNOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE TRACK AND                   
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRI EVENING WITH A HIGH PRESSURE           
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR SAT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE SAT AS            
LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING UPPER MI SUN                
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THIS...BUT WITH 850MB               
TEMPS APPROACHING 0C (AFTER -12C ON SAT)...AGAIN PRECIP TYPE WILL               
NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
COORDINATED WITH THE RFC AND HPC...THANKS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
526 AM EST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONCERNS FOCUS ON PCPN CHCS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE WITH DVLPG                    
SYSTEM OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS.                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH               
UPR RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT             
THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDS FM THE SE STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES                 
WHILE A WK SFC BOUNDARY EXISTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN ONE LOW               
OVR JAMES BAY AND ANOTHER DVLPG LOW OVR ERN CO.                                 
TODAY...MODELS INDICATE WK TROUGH/FRONT WILL BECOME STALLED OVER                
LAKE SUPERIOR AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING                  
PLAINS SFC LOW. RAOBS AND MODEL SNDGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR OVR            
AREA SO GOING DRY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD AS WE REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE            
OF AMPLIFIED UPR RDG. LOOK FOR WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THICKEN               
THIS AFT AHD OF PLAINS SFC LOW. DESPITE RISE IN 850MB TEMPS TO 4 TO             
6C BY 00Z...CLOUDS AND BACKING FLOW TO EAST AHD OF APPROACHING LOW              
WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST LOCATIONS COOLER EXCEPT FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS            
ALG WRN SHORELINES AND AREAS ALONG THE WI BDR...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD              
REACH INTO UPPER 40S. REST OF CWA...SHOULD GET INTO LOW TO MID 40S.             
TONIGHT...UPPER AND SFC LOWS MOVE FROM WRN KANSAS TO NEAR KOAX BY               
12Z MON. FOCUSING OF MSTR AT NOSE OF STRENGTHENING 30-40 KT 850 MB              
JET AS WELL AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...DPVA AND UPPER                      
DIVERGENCE/DIFLUENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE LLVL DRY AIR AND HELP               
BRING A CHC OF RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA OVRNGT. WILL KEEP IN             
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN COUNTIES AND SE MQT                 
COUNTY AS SE WINDS BRING IN RELATIVE MOIST AIR FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.              
MIN TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO A                      
THICKENING CLOUD DECK...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND BETTER MIXING              
FROM INCREASED WIND. WENT WITH LOWS IN MID 30S MOST AREAS.                      
MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF UPPER AND SFC LOWS AS             
THEY MOVE THROUGH IA INTO SRN WI. LOOK FOR BAND OF RAIN TO PUSH                 
THROUGH UPPER MI IN THE MORNING IN REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DPVA             
AND GOOD UPR DIV. DRY SLOT OF MID-UPR LOW THEN COMES THROUGH DURING             
THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEL SNDGS SHOW LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST            
DUE TO RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT. LOOK FOR SCT RW OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO            
DEVELOP. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES IN THE DRY SLOT STEEPEN TO BETWEEN 7             
AND 7.5 C/KM AS SHOWALTER INDICES LOWER TO AROUND 1C. DIVERGENCE IN             
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 120 KT UPR JET SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE EXTRA                    
SUPPORT FOR THUNDER/CONVECTION BY LATE AFT OVER MUCH OF CWA. SOME               
SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS WOULD NOT BE OUT QUESTION GIVEN LOW               
FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 6000 FT.                                              
MONDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH            
DRY SLOT TO MOVE OUT EAST OF THE U.P. BY 06Z AS THE UPPER AND SFC               
LOWS HEAD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC. BEST CHC OF LINGERING RW              
OVRNGT WILL BE OVER SE ZONES NR TRACK OF UPR LOW AND OCCLUDED SFC               
FRONT. DRYING IN WAKE OF UPR AND SFC LOWS WILL YIELD JUST A MIXTURE             
OF DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES TO THE WEST AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO AREA.               
TUESDAY...COLD AIR ADJECTION UNIMPRESSIVE IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM                 
SYSTEM AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO -6 TO -8C BY 00Z WED. LEFT IN              
CHC POPS ACROSS CWA FOR LIGHT -SHSN ALTHOUGH FEEL WE MAY JUST GET               
FLURRIES AT BEST...DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXAMINE AND POSSIBLE LOWER             
OR REMOVE CHC POPS. KEPT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR FAR EAST EARLY.              
KEPT GOING FCST OF HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 30S.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
912 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND               
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
CLOUDS WERE THIN ACROSS FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST                    
WISCONSIN. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO 32F AT DLH...               
COQ...MZH...AND 30 AT ASX AS OF 03Z. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO DROPPED TO             
28F TO 30F. DEWPOINTS UP THE NORTHSHORE WERE IN THE MID 20S. LOOKING            
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...DEWPOINTS WERE 27F TO 30F. CLOUDS ARE              
STARTING TO THICKEN BACK UP...AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BECOME STEADY             
OR EVEN RISE A COUPLE DEGREES. DEWPOINTS TOUGHER TO PINPOINT...AND              
WILL BE CRITICAL. SURGE OF RAIN MOVING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN                   
MINNESOTA...ARCING INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS NOT DEPICTED               
WELL BY EITHER THE 00Z NGM AND ETA...OR EVEN THE RUC. EXPECT THIS               
AREA OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...AS UPPER DIVERGENCE MOVES              
NORTH AND WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE RAIN IS MOVING NORTH              
AROUND 35 MPH.                                                                  
THOUGHT ABOUT A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF SHORELINE                   
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND                   
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RISE SOME. THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING RAIN LATE                
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG AND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT               
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND LOCAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT NOT ISSUING AN               
ADVISORY. I WILL WAIT HOWEVER AND CHECK THE 04Z OBSERVATIONS BEFORE             
MAKING FINAL JUDGEMENT.                                                         
ELSEWHERE...CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION. MIX OF               
RAIN/SNOW AND EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN ZONES.             
RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW SNOW SOUTHWEST AS WELL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
213 PM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDING WINDS THIS EVENING, CHANCE FOR            
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING, AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN               
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                                                        
WINDS REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO             
46 MPH AT SGF. FUNNEL EFFECT UP THE WHITE RIVER BASIN HELPED                    
INTENSIFY THE EFFECT OF VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. OFF              
THE PLATEAU IN JOPLIN WINDS GUSTED TO 41 MPH. LINE OF LIGHT RAIN AND            
EMBEDDED MODERATED SHOWERS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE LOST ALL CG LIGHTNING OVER THE LAST               
COUPLE OF HOURS, AND WITH VIRTUALLY NO CAPE, DONT SEE ANY THREAT OF             
WIDESPREAD THUNDER. MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OVER            
TX AND OK PANHANDLES HAS TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS, AND RUC SHOWS CAPE            
OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS               
WITH COLD CORE, MISSING OUR CWA.                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY WOUND-UP SYSTEM NOW PLOWING INTO                 
OREGON COAST. THIS WILL RELOAD THE SOUTHWESTERN US LONGWAVE TROUGH.             
IN CONTRAST TO TODAYS SYSTEM, DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO A               
DEVELOPING STORM OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.             
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, 850 TO 700 MB MOISTURE SURGES UP AND OVER                 
SHALLOW COOL AIR INTO OUR CWA, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN RESULTING. MAJOR            
PIECE OF LONGWAVE EJECTS OUT THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN                
POSSIBLE. PRIMARY LONGWAVE DOESNT COMPLETELY MOVE TO THE EAST UNTIL             
SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS            
FINAL PIECE OF THE WAVE ROTATES THROUGH.                                        
BROWNING                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KJLN TAF TO CONTINUE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH                
MVFR CIGS/VIS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY FAIRLY RAPID                 
CLEARING AS DRY SLOT WRAPS IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND            
25 KNOTS INTO EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE WITH STRONG                 
POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP LAYER MIXING EXPECTED.                  
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WARRANTED LATER TONIGHT AS STRONG               
JETLET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WITH 50 KNOTS OF FLOW PROGGED            
AROUND 900MB. SIMILAR FORECAST FOR SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL EXCEPT THAT             
SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...WITH SIMILAR CLEARING               
BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.                                               
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE PLATEAU WILL                     
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS FRONTAL RAIN BAND PUSHES                  
ACROSS THE OZARKS. RH INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ALONG WITH                   
PRECIPITATION WILL END THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW                
HOURS.                                                                          
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1106 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...                                                         
SKIES HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLOUD FREE ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS              
THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH TO PENETRATE              
INTO A FAIRLY POTENT LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THAT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO             
40 MPH WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT WILL GRADUALLY            
RELAX AS CLOUD COVER ADVECTS IN. SUSTAINED SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL                  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN                   
RESPONSE TO RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER            
ERN CO/WRN KS.                                                                  
MEANWHILE...NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEAST                  
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND AFTER BRIEF INTENSIFICATION HAS DIMINISHED                  
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 20-30 MINUTES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO             
THE STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN                  
STRONGLY BACKED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN EXTREMELY                
SLOW TO OCCUR. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS LINE...THERE HAS BEEN NO                
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS OVER OK/KS AND ITS ELEVATED                 
NATURE IS JUSTIFIED BY PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS AND 88D VELOCITY                 
DATA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE OZARKS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 30S            
TO MID 40S...AND ACTUALLY WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CHANGE LITTLE                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND MIXING NEARLY                   
BALANCE. WITH THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE INITIAL                
LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALL BUT NON-EXISTENT WITH CAPES NEAR ZERO OVER            
THE CWA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH IF                  
NARROW MOISTURE WEDGE CAN BEAT THE RACE OF THIS LINE INTO SE KS/FAR             
WRN MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                      
OTHERWISE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW             
THAT ACTUAL DRY LINE/COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST OF THE INITIAL               
WAVE OF CONVECTION...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ROTATING INTO WRN               
OK. AS COLD UPPER CYCLONE ROTATES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...A NARROW                
WEDGE OF INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP IN A NARROW AXIS ALONG THE TRIPLE              
POINT AND THE SURFACE OCCLUSION INTO EASTERN KANSAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP            
LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THREAT IS HIGHLY             
CONDITIONAL ON ADVANCEMENT OF DRY AIR FROM THE SW DESERTS. THE                  
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW...HOWEVER ANY LOW-TOPPED STORMS THAT                   
DEVELOPED IN THIS REGION WOULD LIKELY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR                     
CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS ON THE HORIZON AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS                  
ISSUANCE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH            
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS) EXPECTED TO                  
ARRIVE AT JOPLIN AROUND 19-20Z...AND INTO SPRINGFIELD BETWEEN 22 AND            
23Z. CIGS/VIS TO REMAIN VFR UNTIL ARRIVAL OF ELEVATED SQUALL LINE               
WITH MVFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED THEREIN (BRIEF IFR IN HEAVIER PRECIP).              
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL               
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTH AND FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AT            
THIS TIME...DO NOT EXPECT WRAPAROUND STRATO-CUMULUS TO REACH AS FAR             
SOUTH AS JLN/SGF TERMINALS...BUT THOSE HEADED TOWARD KANSAS CITY AND            
POINTS NORTH WILL LIKELY INTERCEPT A FAIRLY LOW OVERCAST THAT WILL              
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
945 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS WITH                 
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT AND CONVECTION MARCHING ACROSS CENTRAL TX.                 
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS SAT             
WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT.  MORNING CRP SOUNDING             
SHOWS HUGE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE...AND DONT EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN            
MUCH DURING THE DAY.  SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING FROM AROUND             
BEEVILLE UP TO VICTORIA.  CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND                
WILL KEEP POP CONFIGURATION GOING.  LATEST RUC/MESOETA ALSO                     
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIP...KEEPING THE BULK OF IT TO               
THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH JUST THE TAIL END ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
COUNTIES.  WILL GO AHEAD AND LOWER SCA TO SCEC OVER THE BAYS AS                 
WINDS ONLY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE.  LATEST VWP SHOWS 0-1KFT WINDS                 
RELAXING A BIT AS LLJ CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST.                            
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA 250-255-270-275                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
91                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE                  
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS              
SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD                
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM           
WITH A WIND ADVISORY.                                                           
AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN              
THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO             
EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT                 
RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS.                                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW              
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES            
FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND                  
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA             
WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME                      
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP            
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR                   
TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND                
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL                
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES.                                        
TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH              
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS             
IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW            
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM                
TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN            
THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE                     
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW            
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE                    
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS            
SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE.               
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS                
PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE            
OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR              
WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE                 
ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS            
IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING                        
UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER              
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN           
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA              
SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE.                                     
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF             
THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE                        
EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP            
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY            
AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND             
GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...             
PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.                                       
FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF               
THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP            
THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10                 
PERCENT POPS IN TACT.                                                           
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
400 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY)...                             
GFS AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW GENERALLY A BLEND             
OF THE MODELS. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF FRONT WAS ADVANCING SLOWLY                
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF KY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL IS ON               
TRACK TO REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF LMK FA BY DAYBREAK. DEW POINTS              
HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE WEST BUT ONLY CREEPING UP IN THE EAST.            
EXPECT SHOWERS TO REACH THE EAST MID TO LATE MORNING.                           
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK AGAIN TODAY WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO                
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND               
SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY AND             
HAVE GONE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                              
DEEP LOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SWEEP EAST TONIGHT WITH FRONT              
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KY LATE TONIGHT. WILL DECREASE POPS SLOWLY                
ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT                 
SLOWS ACROSS FA TONIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN OVER THE                 
NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING. MESOETA AND 24 HR RUC ARE HINTING AT                 
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR.            
HOWEVER BY MORNING THE RAIN WILL BE OUT OF FA.                                  
THIS WILL GIVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE              
NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT/                    
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO FA                   
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.                                                  
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS            
INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANCES IN EXTENDED FOR NOW.             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHOLZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
850 TO 700 MB THETA E ADVECTION FROM RUC MODEL APPEARS TO CORRELATE             
WITH CONVECTION WORKING NORTH ACROSS IOWA. THE THETA E ADVECTION IS             
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN             
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH              
BUT THE FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNSTABLE SO WILL                  
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH AND EAST. THE               
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON SATELLITE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN               
SOUTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...ACROSS IOWA...TODAY. THIS SHOULD             
MAKE THE BALANCE OF THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN THOUGH A DRY SLOT IS             
NOSING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT THIS TIME. DISORGANIZED                  
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION PATTERN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE                 
FORCING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT MAKE THE CONTINUED CHANCE OF                         
PRECIPITATION CHANCY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR THE CHANGE               
FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TODAY THEN OVER              
THE TWIN CITIES AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. NO                     
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF CONTINUED                  
VERTICAL MOTION AS COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES. NEXT SYSTEM                      
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY MORNING STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A CHANCE OF               
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN              
PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.                                            
LONGER TERM...GFS REMAINS ON COURSE WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE                
OVER THE OK/TX REGION ON THURSDAY AND MOVING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE            
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING A RATHER STRONG            
SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF MN. HENCE..A DRY AND COOL                
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A CONTINUATION OF DRY              
WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND AS              
THE HIGH RETREATS AND LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO SOUTH                 
CENTRAL CANADA.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LOW/992MB SFC LO               
OVER ERN NB DRIFTING SLOWLY ENE INTO UPR RDG OVER THE ERN CONUS.                
WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.81 INCH AT GRB) WELL IN ADVANCE             
OF SFC/UPR LO NOTED LIFTING NWD THRU LK MI AND NE WI...WITH AREA OF             
LGT TO MDT RA IN RRQ UPR DVGC OF 100KT H3 JET MAX NR GRB MOVING INTO            
THE SCNTRL ZNS AT 14Z. OTRW...THERE IS NO PCPN ACRS THE FA ATTM AS              
12Z APX SDNG SHOWS AIRMASS AHEAD OF MSTR SLUG RATHER DRY...BUT SKIES            
ARE CLDY WITH SFC TEMPS 34 TO 39.                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY IS RA TRENDS.                                            
12Z RUC/06Z ETA AND GFS SHOW OCCLUDED CYC IN NB MOVING TO NE IA BY              
00Z. H3 JET MAX PROGGED TO LIFT N THRU CNTRL CWA...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
UPR DVGC THUS IMPACTING THE ECNTRL FA MORE THAN THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH             
GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD             
OF APRCHG CYC WL CAUSE RA TO BREAK OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE             
AFTN...XPCT THE MOST WDSPRD/HEAVIER RA TO IMPACT THE ECNTRL ZNS                 
UNDER THE BETTER UPR DVGC. RA AMTS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA MAY BE                  
LIMITED INITIALLY BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON APX SDNG...              
BUT PERSISTENCE OF DYNAMICS SHUD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS                
THERE. WDSPRD CLD COVER AND RA WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP INCRS...BUT SFC            
TEMPS ALREADY ABV 32...SO NO FZRA CONCERNS CONSIDERING RATHER WARM              
SURFACES DUE TO RECENT WARMTH. RECENT COORDINATION WITH NCRFC SUGS              
EXPECTED QPF WL NOT PRESENT ANY SGNFT HYDRO PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY               
CONSIDERING RA WL FALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NR 40 TO LIMIT                  
RUNOFF. LATEST RIVER LEVEL OBS INDICATE LTL IN THE WAY OF RISE THE              
LAST 24 HRS...AND CURRENT LEVELS WELL BLO FLOOD OR EVEN BANKFULL                
STAGE. DRIER AIR PROGGED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z ONCE UPR JET/DVGC AND             
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTS N. MDDELS SHOW SHOWALTER INDEX FALLING             
TO ABOUT +1C TO 2C TOWARD 00Z ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS AS COLDER H5 AIR            
OVERSPREADS LINGERING H85 THERMAL RDG...SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW                  
MENTION OF ISOLD -TSRA IN THAT AREA EVEN THOUGH DRYING ALF/LOSS OF              
BETTER DYNAMICS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CNVCTN.                                  
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY            
06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT            
AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM)                    
ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF                   
ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK               
SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE              
LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A               
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1            
TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND             
NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE              
SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW             
ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO                
DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR                
FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE.                                                     
AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY                  
MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND                 
SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC.              
TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW            
AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH                   
FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING              
BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK              
RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX.                                              
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
734 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA THIS                    
MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RUC 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION POINT TO                  
RAINFALL EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 15Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES             
TO BRING RAIN INTO ALL BUT THE THUMB COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP OFF IN THE THUMB UNTIL AFTER 15Z. IN                    
ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURE AT MOP 28 COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF               
FZRA IN BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE             
MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AND INITIAL             
LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP.                                                         
OKEEFE                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 140 AM...UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD...WITH RAIN BEING THE                      
PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE.                                                       
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT IN THE              
LOWER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTEND            
WITH AS A SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA) AND MOISTURE                
AXIS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE SURGING UP THE MISSISSIPPI                       
VALLEY...AS A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL             
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK IT'S WAY             
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO             
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER WERE                  
PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE COLD CORE LOW...WITH EVEN FEW HAIL AND              
WIND DAMAGE REPORTS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY                  
YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN FIRING            
UP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS/ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS THE                
MENTIONED ENERGY/WAVE.                                                          
FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE                
SHORT TERM MODELS DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THE SHOWALTER INDEX GOING             
NEGATIVE IS THE NGM. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE MESOETA                 
SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR COMING IN AROUND 925 MB...WHERE                  
COMPUTED LI'S DO GO NEGATIVE BY EVENING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING              
ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS              
ANY DAYTIME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW (-24              
TO -28 C AT 500 MB) QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN               
THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT                 
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO IN            
IT'S WAKE. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE                      
WEAK...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                
MEANWHILE...MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF               
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS                 
ALL NOW SHOWING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO FRIDAY                
MORNING. WITH THIS MORE WESTERN TRACK WILL CALL FOR ALL RAIN INTO               
FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A REAL GOOD SOAKING...AS PW VALUES               
CLIMB ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WITH A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE (YESTERDAY'S             
00Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR)...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY                 
NIGHT...AND RAISE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE              
OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THEM              
TO THE FORECAST IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK AS VIGOROUS.                    
DESPITE THE FACT MOST/ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS               
WARM/RAINY SCENARIO...THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE            
TOUGH TIME WITH CUTOFF LOWS EXTENDING SO FAR SOUTH (NORTHERN                    
MEXICO). THERE IS A BIAS AT TIMES OF LIFTING/OPENING UP THESE                   
SYSTEMS TOO FAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY PARKED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS/MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER. THIS COULD OPEN THE                 
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LATE IN            
THE WORK WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...PRODUCING MORE OF A SNOWY                    
SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
UNOFFICIAL FEBRUARY NUMBERS ARE IN.                                             
WHERE WAS THE SNOW???                                                           
THE DETROIT METRO AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 28.5 DEGREES...WHICH WAS             
1.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.9             
INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.              
THE RECORD FOR LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN FEBRUARY IS A TRACE WHICH                
OCCURRED IN 1998.                                                               
THE FLINT BISHOP AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 24.9 DEGREES...WHICH WAS              
1.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 6.1             
INCHES...WHICH IS 3.3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.                                      
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
555 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY THEN PCPN               
TYPE AND CHCS TONIGHT.                                                          
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH            
A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WK SHRTWV LOBE                    
ROTATING UP FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING BAND OF -RA UP THROUGH WI EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR OVR               
UPR GRT LAKES AS EVIDENT ON 00Z KAPX AND KGRB SNDGS IS NOW BREAKING             
APART THIS BAND AS IT REACHES INTO FAR NRN WI. EXPECT ONLY A FEW                
SPRINKLES OVER WI BDR COUNTIES FROM THIS INITIAL BAND.                          
TODAY...MAIN EVENT LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS               
MAIN SHRTWV NOW OVER ERN KS ROTATES UP INTO WI AND LWR MI...PER                 
MODEL FCST. STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET OVER SE WI AND LAKE MI IN LEFT             
FRONT QUADRANT OF 120 KT UPR JET WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LLVL                   
CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW MAIN BAND OF PCPN NOW OVR ERN IL...INDIANA AND             
LAKE MI TO LIFT INTO UPR MI THIS AFT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL                 
FAVOR ERN HALF OF UPR MI FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN WHILE RAIN WILL BE                
MORE SCT WEST OF A KMQT-KIMT LINE. WENT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDANCE              
TEMPS AS THICKENING CLDS AND ERLY FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH OF A                 
REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.                             
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY            
06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT            
AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM)                    
ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF                   
ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK               
SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE              
LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A               
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1            
TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND             
NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE              
SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW             
ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO                
DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR                
FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE.                                                     
AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY                  
MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND                 
SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC.              
TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW            
AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH                   
FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING              
BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK              
RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1116 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED PCPN AND TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT.  NRLY STACKED             
UPR LOW SLOWLY CROSSING MO RVR.  VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY NOW SHOWS                 
SC/CU ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH MID/HIGH CLDS OVR ALL BUT NRN PTNS.  16Z              
SFC ANLYS PLACES FILLING LOW BTWN KOLU-KFET WITH ISALLOBARIC COUPLET            
RIGHT ACRS IA.  OCCLUDED THEN WRMFNT NOTED FM LOW TWRD KALO INTO NRN            
IL.  MSTR AXIS NOW E OF FA MAINLY INTO IL.                                      
15Z RUC CONTS TO PUSH DEEPER INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF K                          
INDICES...SHOWALTERS AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES OFF TO OUR N               
AND E SO DEEP...USING THE TERM LOOSELY...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS                   
DMSHG.  VRY MINOR SFC BASED POTENTIAL STILL THERE ACRS FAR ERN SXNS             
HWVR WITH SBCAPES UP TO ARND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN...BUT MAINLY              
AFFECTING DVN FA RATHER THAN OURS...SO FEEL SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY BE            
A BIT TOO FAR W.  KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN FCST TO BLEND INTO                 
OUTLOOK...BUT APPS THAT CHC DCRG.  BETTER CHCS LOOK TO BE FM MS RVR             
EWD.                                                                            
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS.  WL SEE LTL CHG WRN PTNS AS SFC LOW NRS...AND               
XPC LTL ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN ERN PTNS AS WE HAVE DVLPD LOW CLDS IN             
MOST LOCATIONS.  KEPT HITTING WNDS FAIRLY HARD...SPCLLY SRN HALF S              
OF FNT WHERE WNDS ARE QUITE GUSTY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1050 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING AND MAKE SOME             
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE                                
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS              
SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD                
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM           
WITH A WIND ADVISORY.                                                           
AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN              
THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO             
EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT                 
RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS.                                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW              
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES            
FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND                  
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA             
WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME                      
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP            
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR                   
TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND                
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL                
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES.                                        
TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH              
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS             
IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW            
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM                
TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN            
THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE                     
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW            
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE                    
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS            
SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE.               
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS                
PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE            
OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR              
WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE                 
ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS            
IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING                        
UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER              
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN           
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA              
SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE.                                     
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF             
THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE                        
EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP            
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY            
AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND             
GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...             
PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.                                       
FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF               
THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP            
THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10                 
PERCENT POPS IN TACT.                                                           
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
320 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER               
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW              
LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER            
THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER            
STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP             
AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE            
RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH            
AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY            
SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY             
36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING              
THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                    
ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED              
TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                 
TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.            
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR                 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST.                     
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY            
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN            
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM            
FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE              
ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP                
READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.                                            
MJ                                                                              
A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT              
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND              
NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE               
FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO            
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY                  
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS             
SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE              
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN               
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE                    
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT              
LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD              
COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT.                  
LS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
330 AM...                                                                       
THE FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ON LARGE CLOSED LOW SWEEPING             
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ITS EFFECT ON THE                 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SECONDARY CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL               
RETURN OF STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY.                            
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONUS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE            
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS                    
DEFINED BY TWO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST HAS CARVED OUT A                  
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST                   
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING              
THE WEST COAST OVER OREGON.                                                     
THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEBRASKA HAS BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT DRY            
SLOT TO EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATER THIS MORNING                   
MOISTURE IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST            
CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OR                    
POSSIBLY SNOW DURING THE COOL MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL              
EXPAND ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE RANGING ABOVE 50KT ON THE VAD             
WIND PROFILER THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL                
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE                 
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT ENOUGH                
MIXING TO TRANSPORT THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WHILE I EXPECT               
WINDS TO BE BLUSTERY TODAY...THEY SHOULD RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL              
ARRIVE IN MIDWEST THANKS TO THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DIGGING            
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE DESERT               
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EJECTING BITS AND PIECES OF ITSELF             
OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO              
IS ON THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE             
UKMET/EXTRAPOLATED ETA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE DISPLAYING ITS BIAS OF              
HOLDING THE SHORTWAVES TRACK A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE MAIN EFFECT            
THIS HAS HAD ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP             
FROM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TO                 
THURSDAY WHEN THE OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN               
MISSOURI. I LIMITED THE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN            
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS TO             
OCCUR. DESPITE MY PREFERENCE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO             
THE MID WEEK SYSTEMS...I HAVE BUMPED HIGH AND LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE             
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP NORTH             
OF THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL JET.                                                
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1029 PM SUN...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY...TO                   
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT QUICKLY AND             
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE              
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF                   
MISSOURI AS MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER.                             
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1050 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
JUST SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE               
TRENDS.  BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE WARM START THIS MORNING.               
FORECAST FOR WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...STAYING JUST BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
SPC MESOANALYIS AT 16Z SHOWING MUCAPES AROUND 500J/KG WITH                      
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS.  RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                 
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER IL/NERN MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT                 
UNDER STRONG 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...SO SHOULD SEE SOME                
TSRA DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN.  AGREE WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK            
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND                    
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.                                        
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE SAME.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO GRANDE               
CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE                   
SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND              
MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE              
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT            
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH            
A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW             
CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT                               
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST RESTS ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER            
LEVEL TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THE TROUGH               
MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS.              
THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGS THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH                 
TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GO TOO FAR NORTH FOR OUR               
CWA TO SEE MUCH RAINFALL. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DIVES FARTHER                     
SOUTH...OUR RAIN CHANCES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.                                    
.MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS WITH                
GUSTS TO 6 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SWELLS AT 9 SECONDS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL            
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH SWELLS                  
DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.             
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AS WINDS                     
DECREASE. MODERATING WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP UNTIL TUESDAY             
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE               
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS CHANGING WEATHER                      
REGIME...BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. &&                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW                
CEILINGS AND FOG RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT              
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 76 66 79 68/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
BROWNSVILLE         64 76 67 80 67/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
HARLINGEN           62 77 65 82 66/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
MCALLEN             61 78 64 83 66/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
RIO GRANDE CITY     59 79 62 84 66/ 00 10 10 10 10                              
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  64 74 66 76 67/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...64                                                             
AVIATION/MARINE...52                                                            
MESO...VEGA                                                                     
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx