000
FXUS63 KDLH 162143
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
343 PM CST MON FEB 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
NE MN...EXTENDING SW THROUGH NC MN...AND INTO SE NO DAK. IN THE
WARM SECTOR...A GUSTY SFC WIND AND STRONG WAA/THETA-E ADV TODAY
ALLOWED FOR TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE UPR 20S IN THE IRON
RANGE/ARROWHEAD TO MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS CEN MN/WIS. DEW PTS
REACHED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND A FEW 20S. INCREASED OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER AIR IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER SRN HALF OF
FA WHERE STRONGER WAA PERSISTS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SHSN IN THE NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 2 IN NE MN. AROUND AN INCH OF NEW IS EXPECTED IN
THIS REGION WITH ISOLD SHSN OR FLURRIES SOUTH OF HWY 2. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE A SRLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY TRACKING S OVER
SAK CANADA...WILL ROTATE AROUND THE H50 HUDSON BAY LOW...DIVING
INTO THE UPPER PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED FORCING
AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER FGEN ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR 2 OF SN ACCUM TO THE BORDERLAND DURING THE DAY TUES. INCREASED
POPS IN NRN THIRD OF CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL...MAINLY LATE TUES
THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AND BACK OUT OF
THE E/NE BY TUESDAY AFTRN. INCREASED POPS FOR ZONES ADJACENT TO
LK SUPERIOR FOR THIS TIME. ATTM...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY THROUGH WED...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. MEANWHILE...A WELL ORGANIZED LOW
PASSES TO THE OF THE FA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE UPR LVL LOW
THAT DROPS S FROM CANADA AND CENTERS OVER THE WRN GRT LKS REGION
BY 00Z THURS.

.EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT COMING BEHIND A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO
MODERATE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN
KHIB...WITH VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FROM THE KBRD AREA...EASTWARD TO
KDLH AND KHYR...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TONIGHT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  31  17  17 /  40  40  60  50
INL   2  18  -6   1 /  30  70  40  20
BRD  18  33  11  12 /  20  20  40  30
HYR  22  32  20  22 /  10  20  60  60
ASX  21  31  19  19 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

$$

GRANING/DAP