FXUS04 KWBC 240641
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
241 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 24/1200 UTC THRU APR 25/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...DAY 1...
          
...THE CNTRL U.S....

A VERY HVY RNFL EVENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TODAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING OUT FM THE SWRN U.S.    ABUNDANT
MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD THRU THE CNTRL U.S. AND BE AVBL
TO SUPPORT THE EXPECTED VERY HVY RNFL EVENT.   A SFC WV ASOCTD
WITH  THE UPPER TROF WILL LIFT NEWD FM ITS PSN OVR THE SRN PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PD TO ENHANCE MSTR CNVGNC FM THE MID MS VLY NWD.  
MEANWHILE ITS TRAILING CDFNT AND/OR CNVCTV BNDRYS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR HVY SHWRS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. 
STGLY FVBL RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ARE FCST TO BE IN PLACE
TO AID SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT OVR THE LWR/MID MS VLY AREA BY THIS
EVNG
AND THRU THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.    BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDC THAT
FVBL...ALBEIT WKNG...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LO CNTR AS IT LIFTS NEWD FM THE CNTRL HI PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER
MS VLY BY THE END OF THE PD. 

THERE ARE LOTS OF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE ETA AND GFS MODEL DETAILS
INCLDG THE EXACT SFC LO TRACK AS WELL AS DIFFERING VERT VEL AND
VORTICITY FIELDS.   SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES ARE OBVIOUSLY
RELATED TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITHIN THE GFS MODEL.   FORTUNATELY
...BOTH THE ETA AND GFS QPF AXES ARE VERY SIMILAR OVR THE CNTRL
U.S.
LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FCST.    ONE DIFFICULTY WAS TRYING
TO GAUGE THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENT CNVCTN OVR SRN TX...WHICH WAS
TRIGGER BY A SRN STREAM IMPULSE...ON THE ACTVTY TO THE NORTH.  
FEEL
THE GFS BLOWUP OVR CNTRL TX TMW MRNG DUE TO THIS SYSTEM IS
OVERDONE.   FOR THE MOST PART DEPICTED A QPF THAT COMPROMISED
BTWN THE HEAVIER GFS AND LGTR ETA SOLUTIONS.   DID FAVOR THE GFS A
LITTLE WITH ITS BRINGING SLIGHTLY HEAVIER AMTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES
BY THE END OF THE PD GIVEN THAT THE NRN STREAM TROF DIGGING SEWD
IN CNTRL CANADA COULD HELP LIFT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING A
LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY NWD THAN ANTICIPATED.    OVR TX...PREFERRED A
SOLUTION
THAT TOOK THE ONGOING ACTVTY INVOF THE LWR RIO GRANDE ENEWD INTO
SE TX BY LATER THIS MRNG RATHER THAN LIFTING IT NWD AS THE GFS
WOULD IMPLY. 

...NRN PLAINS...

A CDFNT MOVG INTO THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCTD
SHWRS THIS EVNG AND TNGT.   THE ETA IS MISSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS ACTVTY.

KORTY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 25/12Z
 0.01 503696 501687 497679 491670 483662 477657 473655 468655 
      463656 460656 451652 444650 440649 436650 434654 433658 
      434665 437674 445679 448682 448687 448693 449700 450704 
      453707 457707 464708 472712 480718 489723 495723 498722 
      500719 502713 503707 503701 503696 
 0.01 526947 527940 525935 522930 518924 521916 522909 521904 
      518901 513901 506901 493901 490899 486895 478866 476860 
      474856 471851 468844 465837 459821 455811 452807 445801 
      440799 435799 427803 421809 412817 408820 405825 400829 
      396833 390838 382839 378837 374831 370821 365808 359795 
      357792 354791 350792 347797 345802 341805 340811 344828 
      348844 349850 348856 346865 343877 339882 336884 326891 
      319893 314894 309893 302894 299895 296898 295905 293909 
      290912 284918 269931 263941 258949 255952 256958 259964 
      257969 256975 256979 259988 264997 267001 267007 275025 
      283032 288031 292029 301024 308017 313009 318999 320995 
      323992 333985 341979 348976 353974 363973 371975 374980 
      376984 376987 375996 375000 378008 382013 385017 390020 
      395022 402023 410021 414018 420016 423013 429011 431008 
      450993 453993 454996 459000 466998 470998 471999 471004 
      472006 475011 478011 483009 489006 494001 502991 508983 
      511978 513969 526947 
 0.01 416064 415063 412061 412060 410058 408057 407056 406057 
      407058 407061 408064 407066 404068 406072 407075 410074 
      412074 414072 414068 415066 416064 
 0.25 464902 465894 462889 459880 455873 451859 448848 445836 
      442830 436824 431826 427829 422834 410835 405841 402845 
      398847 394850 388852 383852 379853 373858 368863 362871 
      359877 355882 343891 338895 329899 324902 314905 310906 
      306908 301913 292923 284932 276943 273949 270957 270962 
      271968 275976 281978 288979 297977 301976 305978 307981 
      307985 305991 308992 311990 333972 343964 356956 362952 
      368948 377946 382947 385948 389953 392964 394986 396994 
      402999 410999 416998 424994 429989 432984 437978 443972 
      447965 450962 454960 459953 460948 460945 459936 456927 
      454924 454918 461908 464902 
 0.25 445895 444891 444892 444895 445896 445895 
 0.25 300001 299998 296997 293997 291998 288998 285999 284000 
      283003 284006 286008 289009 291008 294007 297006 298005 
      299002 300001 
 0.50 439851 438843 434839 428843 424846 419851 416854 411858 
      405860 394858 388857 382859 367874 361883 353890 344897 
      337901 324906 314911 298924 292930 285939 279947 276954 
      276961 278968 281972 286972 293971 297970 307966 310968 
      313975 316978 321976 336963 345958 354951 369939 375936 
      382934 392938 396939 400935 403924 405919 409914 414903 
      418893 420879 420875 422870 426867 432864 436861 438858 
      439851 
 0.50 443941 443936 442932 438928 434934 431940 422942 417946 
      411948 405950 403956 403964 405972 408978 411982 416983 
      420981 423975 428970 433960 437953 437950 440948 443941 
 1.00 404893 401881 397872 395869 391868 383870 370881 361892 
      355897 348902 335910 326914 319916 308925 297935 292940 
      289946 288949 288953 288958 292960 296960 300957 305953 
      310948 313947 316950 319956 321964 325964 329961 336957 
      347950 370928 376924 383921 388920 391915 399902 404893 
 1.50 391881 389878 387877 384878 379881 374883 362898 350909 
      346913 346920 348923 346925 343928 336933 330941 326949 
      325953 326958 336953 344948 350943 357936 366920 371917 
      377916 385912 387908 390902 392892 391881 
 2.00 384902 384899 383895 382893 381892 379889 378889 375889 
      374891 373892 370895 369899 369903 370906 373909 375909 
      376909 379909 382909 383906 384904 384902 
 2.00 361909 358907 355909 354911 356913 359911 361909 
 2.00 351936 348935 345936 343938 342938 340939 338941 337943 
      335945 333947 336949 338948 341945 344944 346941 346940 
      349939 351936 351936  
 
$$