PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPT 13 2001
                                                                           
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT 2001
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SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE SOME 0.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL 
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS.  IN AND OF ITSELF THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPS ALTHOUGH THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED 
TO BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL LATELY. LONG TERM TRENDS AND ALSO CCA INDICATE
POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ON THE NORTHERN ISLANDS AND ESPECIALLY HONOLULU
WHICH HAS A POTENT CITY EFFECT. FOR PRECIP FORECAST INDICATIONS ARE
WEAK OR NON EXISTENT.

NOTE OF CAUTION. THE 1971-00 CLIMATOLOGICAL BASE PERIOD MEAN AND TERCILE 
MONTHLY DATA GIVEN BELOW FOR THE FOUR HI STATIONS MAY BE IN SLIGHT ERROR. 
WE HOPE TO CORRECT THE SITUATION BY NEXT MONTH AND APOLOGIZE FOR ANY 
INCONVENIENCE. 

             TEMPERATURE                   PRECIPITATION
          FCST    AVE   LIM         FCST    BLW    MEDIAN     ABV
HILO       B2    75.8   0.5          CL     7.7      9.2      10.3
KAHULUI    CL    78.3   0.5          CL     0.4      0.6       0.8
HONOLULU   A4    80.0   0.5          CL     0.3      1.4       2.0 
LIHUE      A2    78.1   0.4          CL     2.6      3.8       4.3

SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2001 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2002
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REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND
GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST.  THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A
SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER
THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY  SPRING 2002.  HOWEVER THERE ARE NO
ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT THE CURRENT SSTS SURROUNDING THE
ISLANDS. FOR LONGER LEADS OCN IS A MAIN TOOL ESPECIALLY AT HONOLULU.

THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES IN THE TOOLS.

CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST.  FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.

                          HILO
             TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

OND 2001   CL   74.2   0.4       CL     26.1     33.1     41.3
NDJ 2001   CL   72.8   0.4       CL     25.5     32.9     41.7
DJF 2002   CL   72.0   0.4       CL     20.1     27.2     35.9
JFM 2002   CL   71.8   0.4       CL     23.9     30.9     39.4
FMA 2002   CL   72.1   0.4       CL     29.5     35.9     43.1
MAM 2002   CL   72.8   0.5       CL     28.3     34.9     42.6
AMJ 2002   CL   73.9   0.4       CL     22.0     26.8     32.2
MJJ 2002   CL   75.0   0.4       CL     19.1     23.1     27.8
JJA 2002   CL   75.9   0.4       CL     19.5     24.2     29.6
JAS 2002   CL   76.3   0.4       CL     22.2     27.1     32.7
ASO 2002   CL   76.2   0.4       CL     23.4     27.0     31.0
SON 2002   CL   75.5   0.4       CL     25.8     31.7     38.4
NDJ 2002   CL   72.8   0.4       CL     25.5     32.9     41.7
 
                         KAHULUI

             TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

OND 2001   CL   75.9   0.5       CL      4.2      5.7      7.6
NDJ 2001   CL   73.8   0.5       CL      5.7      7.8     10.4
DJF 2002   CL   72.5   0.5       CL      6.8      9.0     11.7
JFM 2002   CL   72.4   0.5       CL      6.0      8.1     10.6
FMA 2002   CL   73.2   0.5       CL      4.3      6.0      8.1
MAM 2002   CL   74.4   0.6       CL      2.9      4.2      5.8
AMJ 2002   CL   75.8   0.6       CL      1.0      1.8      3.1
MJJ 2002   CL   77.3   0.6       CL      0.7      1.1      1.5
JJA 2002   CL   78.6   0.5       CL      0.8      1.1      1.3
JAS 2002   CL   79.1   0.5       CL      0.9      1.2      1.5
ASO 2002   CL   78.9   0.5       CL      1.3      1.8      2.5
SON 2002   CL   77.8   0.5       CL      2.2      3.1      4.3
OND 2002   CL   75.9   0.5       CL      4.2      5.7      7.6

                         HONOLULU
            TEMPERATURE                  PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

OND 2001   A3   77.3   0.5       CL      4.5      6.2      8.4
NDJ 2001   A2   75.0   0.5       CL      4.1      6.1      8.7
DJF 2002   CL   73.5   0.4       CL      5.0      6.9      9.1
JFM 2002   CL   73.5   0.4       CL      4.1      5.8      8.0
FMA 2002   CL   74.5   0.4       CL      3.4      4.6      6.1
MAM 2002   A2   76.0   0.4       CL      2.4      3.2      4.3
AMJ 2002   A4   77.7   0.4       CL      1.2      1.8      2.6
MJJ 2002   A4   79.3   0.4       CL      1.0      1.4      2.0
JJA 2002   A5   80.7   0.4       CL      0.8      1.2      1.6
JAS 2002   A4   81.2   0.4       CL      1.1      1.5      2.0
ASO 2002   A3   81.0   0.5       CL      1.7      2.6      3.8
SON 2002   A2   79.6   0.5       CL      2.7      4.0      5.9
NDJ 2002   A2   75.0   0.5       CL      4.1      6.1      8.7

                          LIHUE
            TEMPERATURE                  PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

OND 2001   A2   75.6   0.3       CL     10.7     13.3     16.2
NDJ 2001   CL   73.6   0.3       CL      9.8     12.5     15.8
DJF 2002   CL   72.4   0.4       CL      8.6     11.4     14.7
JFM 2002   CL   72.4   0.4       CL      8.0     10.8     14.1
FMA 2002   CL   73.1   0.4       CL      7.5      9.6     12.0
MAM 2002   CL   74.4   0.4       CL      7.3      9.2     11.4
AMJ 2002   CL   75.9   0.4       CL      5.3      7.0      9.0
MJJ 2002   CL   77.5   0.4       CL      4.6      6.2      8.0
JJA 2002   CL   78.8   0.3       CL      4.6      5.6      6.6
JAS 2002   CL   79.3   0.3       CL      5.1      6.2      7.4
ASO 2002   CL   79.0   0.3       CL      6.3      8.0     10.0
SON 2002   CL   77.7   0.3       CL      9.1     10.9     12.9
OND 2002   CL   75.6   0.3       CL     10.7     13.3     16.2

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 18 2001.

NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED
EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE.

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