AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS AGAIN ARE LES TRENDS.                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED CLOSED H5 LO OVER ERN ONTARIO             
NEAR CYTS (TIMMONS). ONE SHRTWV SPOKE WAS LOCATED OVER NW WI WHILE              
NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED SW OF JAMES BAY NEAR CWNZ. AT               
THE SFC...LO PRES WAS LOCATED OVER SE LK SUPERIOR WITH A TROF                   
EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE KEWEENAW. IR LOOP INDICATED COLDER CLOUD              
TOPS WITH WI SHRTWV INTO WRN AND CNTRL UPR MI. LK-H8 DELTA/T                    
REMAINED NEAR 20C WITH INVERSION HGTS ABV 8K FT. SO...LES MACHINE               
CONTINUES IN EARNEST.                                                           
KMQT 88D SHOWED POTENT LES BAND FROM NEAR BIG BAY TO GRAND ISLAND               
AND PICTURED ROCKS JUST NE OF MUNISING...IN LINE WITH GREATEST LLVL             
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE TROF...SAGGING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH.               
SNOWFALL RATES WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE RANGED UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR            
NEAR MELSTRAND FROM ABOUT 00Z-01Z. EXPECT THE BAND TO EVENTUALLY                
SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AS WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY            
VEER AS WI SHRTWV MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WITH VEERING 850-500 WINDS                
AIDING LLVL WIND SHIFT. HOWEVER...TIL THAT OCCURS...HAVE POSTED LES             
ADVY FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL 2-6 INCHES AND OCNLY HEAVY                   
SNOWFALL RATES.                                                                 
OVER THE WEST...WINDS HAVE VEERED CLOSER TO 330 WHICH HAS REDUCED               
THE FETCH AND ALLOWED SNOWFALL RATES TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY FOR               
THE KEWEENAW WHERE KCMX DID NOT REPORT ANY -SN AT 03Z. 00Z ETA                  
CONTINUES TO SHOW GREATER LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM M-38 TOWARD KIWD.               
SO...WILL KEEP HEADLINES WITH ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS             
UP TO ABOUT 6 INCHES.                                                           
FARTHER INLAND...-SHSN HAVE DIMINISHED AS LIFT WITH SHRTWV HAS                  
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SO...LITTLE ADDITIONAL -SHSN EXPECTED            
OVERNIGHT MORE THAN A PASSING FLURRY.                                           
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MIZ001>003-009.             
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MIZ005.                
    ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ006.                                
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1022 PM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW AROUND ANJ WITH SEVERAL TROUGH           
AXES ROTATING AROUND IT.  ONE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF           
THE UPPER PENINSULA...A SECOND ONE EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN             
LOWER LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE..WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE              
SHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INLAND.  SURFACE LOW HAS SLOWLY RETROGRADED           
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IR LOOPS/SURFACE OB TRENDS WOULD              
SUGGEST A SECOND CENTER IS FORMING OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR.  KAPX          
88D SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF MULTIPLE WESTERLY FLOW BANDS.  HAVEN'T            
REALLY SEEN A DOMINANT BAND SET UP YET...THOUGH PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE          
MENTIONED EARLIER BEGINNING TO CONCENTRATE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES                
BETWEEN M-32 AND M-68 WEST OF I-75.  RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST WEAKER           
BANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW ARE FALLING APART...ALSO A            
SIGN THAT STRONGER CIRCULATION DEVELOPING WITH THIS BAND TO THE                 
DETRIMENT OF EVERYTHING AROUND IT.  SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEEN FAIRLY          
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS EVENING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND           
AIDED BY APPROACHING DYNAMICS.  APX 00Z RAOB PEGGED 850MB TEMPERATURES          
AROUND -13C WITH AN INVERSION AROUND 6500 FEET...GRB 850MB A LITTLE             
COLDER AT -15C BUT SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER ABOVE INVERSION.  MAIN               
CONCERNS TONIGHT OBVIOUSLY CENTER AROUND CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED         
SNOW SHOWERS.                                                                   
EASTERN UPPER...COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS POSITION OF SURFACE LOW...          
WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THUS KEEPING           
SURFACE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE.  WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS FORECAST TO            
REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND BECOMING MORE                  
NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.  RUC INSISTING ON MORE OF A SOUTHWEST         
FLOW EARLY ON...BUT KAPX/KMQT VWP'S AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST WINDS WILL         
PROBABLY HAVE MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER                 
SLIGHT.  THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM AFFECTING THE BULK OF         
THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH           
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE           
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  WILL WORD ENTIRE AREA FOR 1-2 INCHES...AND             
REMOVE THREAT FOR HIGHER TOTALS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FOR NOW.                  
NORTHERN LOWER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS UVV FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE          
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN NOW SPREADING ACROSS WI.  UPSTREAM 00Z             
RAOBS (GRB/DVN) WERE DRY ABOVE 700MB...WITH BETTER MOISTURE FARTHER             
UPSTREAM ACROSS MN.  QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN               
PULLING ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING...THOUGH TO NO GREAT EFFECT ACROSS         
AREAS SOUTH OF M-72 WITH LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES THUS FAR AT MBL/             
LDM...LITTLE BETTER SNOWFALL FARTHER INLAND AT CAD/HTL.  INITIAL                
FORCING FROM SHORT WAVE WILL PULL INVERSION HEIGHTS UP ABOVE 8K FEET            
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH IN ITSELF WILL HELP               
INCREASE SNOWFALL INTENSITY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM BETTER MID             
LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING LATER.  CURRENT WARNING WILL REMAIN INTACT              
AND GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL TRY TO REFINE WORDING OF HEAVIEST           
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS SOUTH OF M-68/NORTH OF M-32...WITH           
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS AROUND THAT AREA.  WILL DROP ADVISORY FOR                 
BENZIE/GRAND TRAVERSE/KALKASKA GROUPS AND LOWER ACCUMULATIONS A BIT             
SINCE LITTLE HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS EVENING.                                  
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 0345Z.                                         
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                   
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1100 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE SAULT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE              
COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THUS CONTINUING THE LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW MACHINE. MORNING APX SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH DEEP                
MOISTURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...                
DEPTH OF MOISTURE/CONVECTION ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF                  
-14/-15C ARE PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOW                  
PRODUCTION. THE MAIN AFTERNOON QUESTION IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW              
WILL OCCUR.                                                                     
OVERNIGHT...10 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET              
AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES (BRINGING 36 HR TOTALS UP TO 2-3 FEET).                 
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK             
SURFACE BOUNDARY PAST 2-4 HOURS...WHICH HAS CAUSED WEST-SOUTHWEST               
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST (A WIND SHIFT OF ONLY               
ABOUT 20 DEG). THIS HAS CAUSED THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD            
A BIT. SO THE RELENTLESS SNOWS ACROSS CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...AND                  
CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES HAVE SLACKENED FOR THE TIME BEING...WHILE THE                
SNOW ACROSS ANTRIM/LEELANAU COUNTY HAS INCREASED.                               
THE RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH SHOW ENHANCED LAKE TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPING            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE WSW              
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...AM INCLINED TO KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND              
ADVISORIES BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS                    
LEELANAU AND ANTRIM COUNTIES...WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 6-7                  
INCHES...TOGETHER WITH TODAY/S ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRODUCE 24 HR                 
SNOWFALLS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES. WILL THEREFORE HOIST WARNINGS FOR                 
THESE TWO COUNTIES. IN CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...WHERE SNOWS HAVE DECREASED            
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z.              
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                 
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ020-021.                  
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY....THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                 
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER TODAY AND CHANCE OF MORE LIGHT SNOW             
OR FLURRIES...THEN HOW FAST TO BRING IN ARCTIC PUSH TONIGHT.                    
CURRENTLY..LOTS OF BREAKS OVER SOUTH BUT LOWER CLOUDS ARE PUSHING               
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL MN. ETA SEEMED TO WANT TO KEEP EXTENSIVE              
HIGHER..LOW LEVEL RH MORE OUT IN EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOOKING UP TO FAR             
NORTH..ANOTHER WEAK VORT IS SLIDING SE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN. 06Z              
RUC AND ETA SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE THAN 00Z RUNS. LOOKS LIKE               
BEST CHANCE THOUGH..OVER EAST CENTRAL ON INTO WI. WILL KEEP                     
FLURRIES OVER REST OF EAST.                                                     
ETA HAS SLOWED THE ARCTIC A BIT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND LIKE THE               
AVN INITIALIZATION OF 850 TEMPS BETTER. FWC MOS GUIDANCE NOT BAD                
THOUGH...BUT CLOSER TO AVN IN SOUTH. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES WITH            
FRONT AND THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER FRIDAY AS             
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES AROUND. PROBABLY STEADY TEMPS OVER MOST                
AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT MAYBE FALLING SOUTH..DEPENDING ON LOWS                      
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
MRF 6-10 DAY 500 HEIGHTS STILL SHOWING SOME PACIFIC FLOW BREAKING               
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AT OUR LATITUDE..BUT NEW UPPER LOW WITH ARCTIC            
REBUILDING OVER FAR N CANADA.                                                   
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
845 PM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CONTINUED -SN AND TEMPS.                            
KMVX-88D SHOWING BANDS OF -SN CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN RED            
RIVER VALLEY ALONG NARROW NW-SE ORIENTED 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE                  
DEPICTED BY RUC ANALYSIS. ABOVE ALSO AIDED BY WK IMPULSES ROTATING              
AROUND UPPER LOW NORTH OF GREAT LAKES FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP. BASED              
ON ACCUMULTATION TRENDS FROM TODAY WILL BUMP FLURRY MENTION TO OCNL             
-SN OVER PORTIONS OF VALLEY AREA FOR AN INCH OR SO OF ADDNL                     
ACCUMULATION.                                                                   
OTWS COLD FRONT ORIENTED ALONG INL BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP             
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC SHOWING STRONGEST 850MB COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND               
WITH SOLID CLOUD COVER TEMP DROP SHOULD BE GRADUAL. WILL TAKE A LAST            
LOOK AT CURRENT AND UPSTREAM READINGS BEFORE UPDATE HOWEVER NO BIG              
CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.                                                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
830 PM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM AROUND BIS SE TO ABR AND                
FSD. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ESE THROUGH THE EARLY                 
EVENING...BUT THIS MOTION IS NOW ENDING AS NEXT SHORT WAVE IS NOW               
ROTATING SOUTH THROUGH SASK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD             
OF THIS SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROF SLIDING INTO NRN NODAK            
ATTM. THIS INCREASING LOW LVL MSTR/CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP               
SOUTH AND MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF SODAK BY LATE EVENING THEN OVER             
SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW                
SHOWING UP IN SRN CANADA. WHILE LATEST RUC NOT DEPICTING ANY SIG                
PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT DOES INDICATE THE INCREASE IN MSTR/CLOUDS            
BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN CWA. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS             
AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED TO UPDATE CURRENT FORECASTS TO              
PUSH CLOUD/SNOW TIMING A BIT FAR WEST. WITH CLOUDS REMAINING IN                 
PLACE MOST AREAS EAST WILL NEED TO UP OVERNIGHT LOW FORECASTS JUST A            
BIT.                                                                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
FAUCETTE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
800 PM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
TIMING OF THE NEXT BATCH OF LOW/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY                  
AFTER MIDNIGHT...PER SATELLITE LOOPS...LATEST RUC MODEL AND LAMP                
MOS.  THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO MAINLY ADVECT INTO THE NRN 2/3RDS OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA...AND GIVEN PAST HISTORY WHILE UNDER THIS W-NW                
FLOW ALOFT...THE NO MENTION OF FLURRIES SEEMS WISE.  LOOKING TO OUR             
SW...A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO SPREAD MAINLY MID/HI CLOUDS               
INTO SE TN/SW NC...ALSO AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                         
A LIGHT SW SURFACE WIND NOTED...WITH WEAK TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE...             
TWO UPSTREAM AND ONE TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  DEWPOINTS AND             
00Z TEMPS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE INCREASE             
IN CLOUDS...MIN TEMP FORECAST IS LIKELY ON TRACK.  I MAY SEPARATE               
THE NE PLATEAU COUNTIES...AS A CHECK OF PLATEAU COOP SITES VERSUSES             
TYS/OQT FOR THIS WEEK SHOWS MINS THERE HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 3-6 DEGS             
FARENHEIT LOWER.                                                                
I MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME FAIR AMOUNTS OF                   
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH             
SHOULD HELP US WARM TO SOME NOT AS CHILLY MAX TEMPS.  ANYWAY...THE              
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 930 PM EST.                                 
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1000 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
VORT MAX WL MOV ACRS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG. VORT IS                 
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID CLDS. LOOKING AT 06Z ETA AND CURRENT RUC                
THIS MID CLD THINS AS IT MOVES E AND MAY ONLY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD              
OF BKN ACRS THE NRN CWA. WL HOLD ON TO A MSTLY SUNNY FCST. CURRENT              
TEMPS FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                          
DROPPING SCA AS WINDS SHD STAY UNDER THRU THE AFTN WITH A JUST A FEW            
GUSTS APPROACHING. SEAS WL REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA WITH W WINDS.                  
FCSTID = 92                                                                     
SBY   41  26  45  26 /  10  10  10  10                                          
OXB   42  29  44  29 /  10  10  10  10                                          
ECG   45  32  50  32 /  10  10  10  10                                          
ORF   45  32  50  32 /  10  10  10  10                                          
PHF   43  30  46  30 /  10  10  10  10                                          
AKQ   42  27  46  27 /  10  10  10  10                                          
RIC   41  26  45  26 /  10  10  10  10                                          
FVX   42  27  46  27 /  10  10  10  10                                          
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
92                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
252 AM MST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                      
MAIN CHALLENGE TDA WILL BE THE WINDS AND MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY                 
ALONG I-25 AND SERN CO.  COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO ERN CO             
LATER TNGT-SAT.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SENSIBLE WX ACROSS               
SERN CO SAT NGT-SUN.                                                            
CURRENT: SYNOPTICALLY...FLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY CHAOTIC WITH MOD-                
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING OUT OF CAN INTO THE MID SECTION               
OF THE US AND PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVES WEAKENING AS THEY ADVANCE                   
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. MAINLY CI/CS CLOUD SHIELD MIGRATING OUT OF WRN             
US IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT ULJ.  APPEARS MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUD STARTING            
TO DEVELOP ALONG ERN CO MTNS AS RUC 500MB WINDS BACKING TO W-NWLY               
FLOW.  ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS(AOA             
8.0K FT MSL) PER METARS/RAWS DATA. LA VETA/MONARCH PEAK(APPROX. 12K             
FT MSL) DOT AWOS SENSORS HAVE BEEN BLOWING ALL NIGHT(30-40KT G45-               
52KT). 08Z FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN            
ROCKIES INTO NE AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST.                                  
TDA: WINDS AND DEG OF WARM UP THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TDA. 80-100KT               
ULJ STILL PROGGED TO RACE ACROSS THE NERN 1/2 OF CO LATER THIS                  
AFTN.  KIND OF A NW FLOW CHINOOK PATTERN TDA.  MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE              
LAYER ISN'T ALL THAT GREAT AND NO SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD FORCING COMING           
THROUGH TO SPILL HIGHER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ALSO...           
AFT 18Z ETA/MESO-ETA STILL PROJECTING AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH                    
DEVELOPING IN ERN CO. WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PREVALENT IN THE               
MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT MAYBE SWRN CO MTNS.   SFC WINDS COULD BE ALL                 
OVER THE PLACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR              
WINDY CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15Z-21Z.  THEN MTN-PLAINS CIRCULATION                  
COULD BE MORE DOMINATE.  TOUGH CALL.  IF THE WINDS PICK UP TDA...               
TEMPS COULD REACH INTO THE 50S AOB 6.0K FT MSL PER DRY ADIABATIC                
LAPSE RATE TO 700MB. ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE ALONG AND W                  
OF CONTDVD...BUT MAY NOT GET INTO SWRN/CNTRL MTNS UNTIL LATE THIS               
AFTN. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND EXPECTING LITTLE                 
CHANGES.                                                                        
TNGT-SAT: PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED ETA/MESO-ETA FOR BETTER TERRAIN                  
RESOLUTION.  AS 80-100KT ULJ EXITS ERN CO...SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO                
SHIFT N-NELY WITH FRONT RACING TOWARDS ERN SLOPES OF SERN CO MTNS.              
FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW(ONLY UP TO 6.0K FT MSL)...THOUGH. SFC WINDS               
SHOULD DIE DOWN ALONG/E OF I-25 AFT 06Z.  AS PBL COOLS...MESO-ETA               
SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE SERN CO MTNS ERN SLOPES             
AND SERN CO PLAINS.  ONLY POTENTIAL LIFT MIGHT BE SOME WEAK                     
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND THAT WOULD PROBABLY ONLY BE AROUND THE PALMER             
DIVIDE.  THERE ARE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT INCONSISTENCY             
BETWEEN MODELS.  AVN STILL PRINTING OUT LIGHT QPF ACROSS ERN CO...BUT           
NOT AS WIDESPREAD IN SERN CO AS PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z/28 ETA AND 06Z/28            
MESO-ETA ARE CONSISTENT WITH NOT REALLY PRINTING OUT ANY QPF IN SERN            
CO TNGT-SAT. A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP/QPF WILL BE ALONG/W           
OF CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY CNTRL MTNS.  ERN SAN JUAN/LA GARITA MTNS WILL           
BE FAIRLY SHELTERED FROM THE WLY OROGRAPHIC MOIST IN-FLOW.                      
ON SAT...LOWER TROP WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ANY ST CLOUDS MAY                
TEND TO BREAK UP WITH THE LOSE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC              
ASCENT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN PORTION OF PALMER DIVIDE.  WITH             
THE LACK OF MIXING AND MODIFIED CP AIR MASS ENTRENCHED IN THE LOWER             
AR RIVER VALLEY.  MESO-ETA HAS A WLY FLOW "DRY" POCKET AROUND 750MB-            
700MB...WHILE AVN APPEARS TO BE OVERLY MOIST...THIS IS DUE TO                   
VERTICAL RESOLUTION DIFFERENCES.   BIGGEST SENSIBLE WX WILL BE                  
COOLER TEMPS.  MESO-ETA HAS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AOB 7.0K FT MSL.              
MAV GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM.  COULD BE A SCENARIO WHERE               
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IS WARMER THAN SERN CO PLAINS DUE TO LACK OF                
FRONTAL PENETRATION.                                                            
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN THE CORRECT DIRECTION.  PLAN TO                 
TWEAK SOME CLOUD WORDING AND BUMP UP PRECIP CHANCES IN CNTRL                    
MTNS(58/59).                                                                    
SAT NGT-SUN: STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE ACTUALLY SENSIBLE WX                 
DURING THESE FORECAST PERIODS.  ANY BREAKS IN THE SERN CO MTNS/                 
PLAINS SHOULD FILL BACK IN AS PBL COOLS.   AGAIN...THERE ARE MODEL              
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS.  AVN IS              
CONSISTENTLY MOISTER WITH WIDESPREAD QPF DUE TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE              
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED KINEMATICS. 00Z ETA-ETAX HAVE BEEN                       
CONSISTENTLY STINGY WITH THE QPF FOR THE SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS SAT NGT-           
SUN.  THIS MAKES SENSE HAS IT IS WEAKER WITH THE SHORTWAVES MOVING              
THROUGH THE W-NWLY FLOW. AVN HAS A SERIES OF WLY FLOW SHORTWAVES                
MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN I COULD BUY            
THE TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER CWA WITH WIDESPREAD QPF BEING                  
GENERATED.  SO...IF YOU BUY THE AVN WHOLESALE...THEN POPS COULD BE              
CATEGORICAL CWA-WIDE.  HOWEVER...IF YOU BUY THE WEAKER ETAX                     
SOLUTION...THEN POPS WOULD BE PRETTY LOW OR NIL FOR SERN CO                     
MTNS/PLAINS.  06Z/28 MESO-ETA RUN PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF SERN              
CO MTNS AND SRN PORTION OF PALMER DIVIDE LATER SAT NGT.  TOUGH CALL             
IN TRULY SAYING WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT. ONE WOULD THINK THE ETA WOULD           
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN RESOLUTION...IMPROVED            
VERTICAL RESOLUTION...AND IMPROVED MODEL QPF AND CLOUD PHYSICS.                 
SINCE THIS IS DAY 3 FORECAST AND THERE WILL BE 4 MODEL RUNS BEFORE              
THE POTENTIAL EVENT EVEN STARTS SAT NGT-SUN...WILL NOT BE TOO                   
AGGRESSIVE WITH CHANGING THE FORECAST AND REMAIN CONSERVATIVE.  PLAN            
TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS AROUND SERN CO MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND            
MENTION MENTION "LIGHT SNOW" FOR EXTRA GUIDANCE.  LATER FORECASTERS             
CAN RE-ANALYZE MODEL DATA AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                             
MON-THU: AVN/MRF STILL PRINTING OUT NEARLY WIDESPREAD QPF UNTIL                 
FURTHER NOTICE.  OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL                 
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN...BUT NOT READY TO BIT AND FLIP-FLOP THE DAY 4-7           
FORECAST.  WOULD BE NICE TO GET SOME OF THAT MRF QPF ONCE IN A                  
WHILE DOWN HERE IN THE SEMIAIRID DESERT.                                        
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
940 PM MST THU DEC 27 2001...UPDATE...                                          
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: CONCERN TNT OVER HIGH WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE             
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS FOR LATER TNT/FRI MORNING. STRONG MTN TOP                 
INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING WITH 100KT JET OVER AREA. AS               
THIS JET SLIPS EAST OF CWA LATER TNT THE SHEAR PROFILE BECOMES MORE             
FAVORABLE FOR AN AMPLIFIED MOUNTAIN WAVE. ALREADY SOME GUSTS UP                 
AROUND 50 MPH AT RED FEATHER LAKES AND A FEW OTHER RAWS STATIONS.               
X-SECTIONS FROM RUC/MESOETA SHOWING COMP ALONG INCREASING BTWN                  
40-50KT AT 07Z-12Z THEN SLOWLY DECREASING BY NOON. THE MM5 MODEL IS             
EVEN STRONGER WITH SPEEDS OF 80-90KT ABV 8K FEET. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY             
A LITTLE MUCH...BUT BASED ON 04Z OBS IT MAY NOT BE TOO OVERDONE.                
LOOKS LIKE INVERSION WILL STAY HIGH ENOUGH AS NOT TO GET HI WINDS               
OVER ZNS 38..39...BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING LATER TNT. ROCKY FLATS IS            
GUSTING IN THE 35-45 MPH THIS EVENING WHICH IS TROUBLING. ENTREKIN              
LONG TERM DISCUSSION: STG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE CWA                  
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 90+ KT JET IN THE VICINITY.  MDLS CROSS-SECTIONS              
STILL HINT AT SOME WEAK CSI POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AMOUNTS               
NOT AS OPTIMISTIC AS PRVS MDL RUNS SUGGESTED.  SINCE MY CONFIDENCE              
LEVEL IS RATHER LOW IN TERMS OF THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF             
THE CSI...I WILL BACK OFF ANY MNTN OF ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE                     
NORTHEAST PLAINS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO                
BETTER ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL.  ALTHOUGH THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PLAINS SFC HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE URBAN                   
CORRIDOR...ANY UPSLOPE IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK AND VERY SHALLOW SO SCT            
POPS FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR LOOK OKAY FOR NOW.  AS FOR THE                      
MTNS...BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H7 WINDS                
AROUND 35 KTS... MOISTURE DEPTH HOWEVER DECREASES ON SATURDAY SO                
WILL BACK OFF TO SCT POPS AT THAT TIME.  OROGRAPHIC SNOW MDL YIELDED            
SNOWFALL IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT.  FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SUNDAY...ENOUGH WIND AND MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS TO KEEP MENTION              
OF SCT SHSN.  FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AVN INDICATES PLENTY OF RH             
THERE BUT NOT MUCH AVAILABLE TO LIFT IT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN...AHEAD OF            
AN APPROACHING CANADIEN SHORT WAVE.  WL UP POPS AGAIN AT THAT TIME.             
NORTHERLY FLOW ALF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA MONDAY AS ANOTHER                 
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  COLD             
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA MONDAY                 
MORNING.  WILL KEEP A CHC OF SHSN FOR THE NE PLAINS ON MONDAY                   
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. BEST WARMUP SHUD               
OCCUR TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS LARGE H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEST DEAMPLIFIES               
...THE SFC HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE FLOW              
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WLY.  MRF MAINTAINS SOME RH AND QPF IN THE                   
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MDT NW-WLY FLOW ALF.              
WL MNTN AT LEAST A SLGT CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS THROUGH THE PD.                
COOPER                                                                          
.DEN...HIGH WIND WARNING TNT/FRI MORNING...ZNS 35..36.                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
405 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                      
SFC LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH SHARP LAKE                
ENHANCED TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK OVER UPR MI...NRN WI AND WRN LWR              
MI. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT              
WAVE MOVING THRU CENTRAL WI ATTM...WITH SEVERAL SFC OBS REPORTING               
LIGHT SN OVER NRN WI AND MN AS A RESULT. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW IN CONTROL. DOMINANT            
BAND HAS FINALLY ORGANIZED...EXTENDING FROM CHARLEVOIX AND LITTLE               
TRAVERSE BAY/PETOSKEY TO WOLVERINE TO JUST S OF ONAWAY. LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW...WHEN...WHERE AND HOW MUCH...WILL REMAIN OUR FORECAST FOCUS               
THRU THE WEEKEND...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ANY ENHANCEMENT THAT WILL                
OCCUR FROM PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE.                                           
SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS...WHICH WILL PLAY            
A ROLE IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FIRST             
OF ALL...LATEST RUC HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND             
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING THRU WI...BOTH THE ETA              
AND AVN ARE SLIGHTLY TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH. ALSO...AVN SEEMS TO            
BE TOO MOIST THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD...MAINTAINING MID LEVEL                    
MOISTURE EVEN AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORT WAVE AND AS NVA IS               
MOVING THRU THE REGION.                                                         
TODAY...DELTA T'S REMAIN AROUND -20 C...WITH INVERSIONS AROUND 8-9              
KFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS HAVE             
ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE NW ACROSS ERN UPR AND FAR NRN LWR MI.             
BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FUELING THE DOMINANT BAND REMAINS STRONG              
AND SHOWS UP NICELY IN THE LOW LEVEL OBSERVED WINDS. WINDS AT ACB               
ARE FROM THE S AND WINDS AT GLR AND TVC ARE FROM THE SW. WILL LIKELY            
TAKE AWHILE FOR THIS DOMINANT BAND TO BE DISRUPTED BY WINDS SHIFTING            
TO THE NW...SINCE IT SEEMS TO BE CREATING ITS OWN LOW LEVEL WIND                
FIELD. BUT DO EXPECT CHANGING SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DISRUPT             
THIS BAND...SHIFTING BANDS TO A MORE NW/SE ORIENTATION. CHARLEVOIX              
WILL STILL BE TARGETED...BUT BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD ALSO BEGIN            
TO IMPACT ALL OF ANTRIM AND OTSEGO COUNTY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE            
W/NW AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. IN THE MEANTIME...HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS                
WILL NOT CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INCLUDING SRN EMMET...SRN              
CHEBOYGAN AND EMMET COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO               
SEE AT LEAST AN INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE                
BANDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES ALREADY IN THE WARNING...AND ISSUE WARNING             
FOR BENZIE AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TREND AND                 
OBSERVER REPORTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT FOR NW GRAND TRAVERSE             
COUNTY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AREAL               
COVERAGE OF SHSN DUE TO DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT...AS WELL AS SOME                   
SYNOPTICALLY INDUCED ENHANCEMENT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES THRU                  
CENTRAL AND SRN LWR MI.                                                         
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY DROP TO AROUND 7-8            
KFT...BUT DELTA T'S INCREASE TO THE LOWER -20S WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BE SHIFT FROM NW TO N                   
TONIGHT ACROSS ERN UPR MI AND FROM W/NW TO NW ACROSS NRN LWR MI...SO            
BANDS ORGANIZATION WILL AGAIN BE DISRUPTED. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...              
EXPECT HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE THOSE TARGETED BY W/NW AND NW WINDS            
IN NRN LWR MI (I.E. CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM AND OTSEGO COUNTIES).                   
CHIPPEWA COUNTY WILL RECEIVE SOME SNOW...BUT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE              
N...THEY WILL BE LARGELY OUT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BANDING. WILL NOT                
ISSUE SECOND PERIOD WARNING AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN             
EXACTLY HOW/WHEN THE WIND FIELDS WILL SHIFT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.               
BUT DO EXPECT THESE AREAS COULD SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL                 
SNOWFALL. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NW ON SATURDAY...CONTINUING TO                
TARGET NW FLOW COUNTIES FOR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.                                  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...INVERSION HEIGHTS FINALLY BEGIN TO FALL             
TOWARD 5 KFT AS BUILDING SUBSIDENCE/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PRODUCES                  
WARMING ALOFT. DELTA T'S (-19 TO -20 C) AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
(AROUND 70 PCT) REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT               
SHSN AS WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO THE W/NW. WILL MAINTAIN SCT/NMRS SHSN              
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH BEST CHANCES OF SNOW REMAINING ACROSS THE            
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT AREAS.                                 
FORECAST FOR MONDAY LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL DATA...NO                   
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                           
THANKS TO MQT FOR COORDINATION.                                                 
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...TODAY...                                      
EME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
200 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND WHAT               
EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HAVE.                                                        
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR AND LAST EVENINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED           
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH NEXT SHORT             
WAVE POISED NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA/MONTANA BORDER. 850MB TEMPERATURE             
ANALYSIS INDICATED POOL OF MINUS 20C AIR ACROSS ONTARIO/MANITOBA.               
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AS SHOWN BY RADAR           
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER NOTED IN 11-3.9           
MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                       
00Z MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THE MINUS 20C TEMPERATURES AT               
850MB SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...PIECES OF SHORT               
WAVE ENERGY CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE              
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. NO DOUBT ADDITIONAL           
ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW ANTICIPATED...WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.               
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE CLOUD COVER EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES.                   
AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING...THE ETA 2M AND LATEST RUC 2M TEMPERATURES              
WERE 5F TO 10F DEGREES TOO COLD IN THE FORECAST AREA...AS WELL AS               
UPSTREAM. THIS LIKELY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION...WHICH            
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATED WOULD PROBABLY HANG AROUND.                
THE ETA AND RUC 2M VALUES APPEAR TO CONTINUE THIS COLD BIAS                     
INTO TODAY...SO WILL PROBABLY NEED TO RAISE FORECAST HIGHS A BIT.               
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON ANTICIPATED...            
BUT CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS COLD AS             
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.                                                              
SINCE ITS THIS MIDNIGHT CREWS FIRST DAY BACK...WE PREFER TO                     
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES...ALLOWING               
FURTHER EVALUATION OF SUBSEQUENT MODELS AND CLOUD TRENDS.                       
OTHERWISE...FORECAST SCENARIO OF A LOT OF COLD AND A LITTLE                     
SNOW FOR THE LAST WEEKEND OF THE YEAR APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE.                    
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1010 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                     
SATELLITE SHOWS THUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM            
COMPLEX ARE CONTINUING TO COOL S OF NEW ORLEANS AHEAD OF THE UPPER              
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE TX COAST. CLOUDINESS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS                  
CURRENTLY SPREADING E INTO THE CWFA. WILL MENTION INCREASING                    
CLOUDINESS FOR ZONES AND WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW TEMPERATURE                       
ADJUSTMENTS.                                                                    
MARINE: WINDS STAYING LIGHT AT THIS TIME...AND 13Z RUC SUGGESTS                 
WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS              
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE NRN GULF COAST. WILL LOWER WINDS AND SEAS               
SLIGHTLY FOR UPDATES.                                                           
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                      
...HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE UPPER                     
PENINSULA...                                                                    
.OVERVIEW...AREA OF LES CONT OVER THE N CENT UPPER PENINSULA AND                
OVER THE WRN ZONES THIS AFTN AS SFC BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE AREA.             
WSETA AND RUC HAVE BEST HANDLE ON WIND FIELDS...HIGHLIGHTING AREAS              
OF BEST CONVERGENCE WHERE CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS                
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN                 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU 24 HRS WITH AVN DIVERGING WITH                   
PLACEMENT OF ERN CANADIAN VORTEX AFTER THEN. THIS DIFFERENCE FAIRLY             
MINIMAL AND WL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON FORECAST NO MATTER                 
WHICH VERIFIES BETTER AS ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY SFC               
FLOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO CONT LONG LASTING LES EVENT. MAIN                    
CHALLENGE IS DEFINING AREAS WHERE BEST SNOWFALL TO OCCUR.                       
.SHORT TERM...NORTH WINDS BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE SNOW                  
MACHINE GOING OVERNIGHT. TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LK SUPERIOR AND               
850 MB TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...REACHING AS HIGH AS 22 C...AS COLD               
POOL SETTLES IN. DECENT FETCH ACROSS THE LK ALSO SUPPORTS ENHANCED              
LES WITH THE NORTH WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN                    
SECTIONS OF THE REGION. FURTHER W...VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND              
MAIN 5H LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN MN AND WL ENHANCE SNOW ACROSS             
THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOPS ALREADY COOLING ACROSS            
WRN LK SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE THUS THIS AREA WL SEE               
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY LOCATION               
THAT IS QUESTIONABLE IS BARAGA COUNTY WHERE SHADOW OF THE KEWEENAW              
PENINSULA WL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL THERE BUT ENHANCEMENT FROM                     
AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY LOBE MAY BRING A BRIEF PD OF HEAVIER                   
SNOWFALL. ATTM WL LEAVE BARAGA COUNTY OUT OF HEADLINES AS PRESENT               
PATTERN NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LES THERE AND DO NOT EXPECT               
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA               
FOR SNOWFALL.                                                                   
OVER THE FAR E...WINDS TO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHICH            
WL LIMIT LES PRODUCTION. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER PENINSULA            
WL INCREASE POPS AND BUMP UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT THESE                
AREAS TO STAY BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                            
AS FOR TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE SIMILAR OR A BIT COOLER THAN                
THIS MORNING/S READINGS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING.                     
.LONG TERM...WINDS BEGIN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR             
SATURDAY. PAST TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS HAS BEEN A BIT LATER THAN                  
INDICATED BY THE MODELS AND THUS EXPECT DECENT LES TO CONT INTO THE             
AFTN. WINDS TO BE MORE WRLY BY 6Z SUNDAY WHICH WL DIMINISH SNOWFALL             
OVER ALL BUT FAR WRN ZONES. BLUSTERY WINDS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF               
COUNTIES TO PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF VERY POWDERY SNOW WHICH             
WL LIMIT VSBYS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE FEW OPEN                 
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NO HEADLINES FOR                 
REDUCED VSBYS...HOWEVER CONT LES WARRANTS CONTINUANCE OF WSW ACROSS             
THE WEST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT A BIT MORE NW ON SUNDAY...            
AGAIN FAVORING LES ACROSS THE WRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION.               
HOWEVER TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LK AND 850 MB DIMINISH AS                  
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVES IN BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING AND              
DECENT CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG LAKE SHORE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR               
CONT WSW IN THE FAVORED AREAS INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW WL ONLY EXTEND               
WSW THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS MAKE THE FINAL              
DETERMINATION AS TO HOW FAR TO EXTEND HEADLINES AFTER THEN.                     
NOT MUCH VARIABILITY IN TEMP FORECASTS EXPECTED AS REGION REMAINS               
LOCKED IN CURRENT PATTERN THRU SUNDAY. DO EXPECT A SLIGHT RECOVERY              
ON SUNDAY AS 1000 TO 850 AND 1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESSES RECOVER.                
MORE VARIABILITY FORECAST ALONG THE SRN ZONES AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR             
AND WL PLACE THE BIGGEST DIURNAL RANGES THERE.                                  
.EXTENDED...MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU DAY 4 AND THEN             
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO 5H PATTERN. MRF AND CANADIAN CLOSEST TO EACH            
OTHER AFTER THEN...WITH ONLY A TIMING DIFFERENCE REGARDING SHRTWV               
MOVING THRU THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. EARLIER ON IN THE               
EXTENDED...BLOCKING RDG OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC GRADUALLY SHIFTS E                
WITH TIME ALLOWING 5H LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO TO LIFT NE. THIS FEATURE             
TO CONT TO BRING WEAK SHRTWVS INTO THE GRT LKS REGION WITH NW FLOW              
PREVAILING. WHILE LK SUPERIOR VERSES 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCES                    
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY ON...STILL HIGH ENOUGH AT 15 TO 18 C...FOR              
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONT THRU WED IN THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY W TO NW            
SFC WINDS. COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO THE REGION THU AS DEEP 5H LOW                 
DROPS IN FROM THE NW. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH ARCTIC AIR              
BLASTING IN SUPPORTS SNOW FORECAST FOR THU. LK EFFECT SNOW CRANKS UP            
AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH HIGH DELTA T/S BETWEEN LAKE SFC AND 850            
MB TEMPS AND DECENT FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE WITH NRLY WINDS. QUESTION             
REMAINS ON HEIGHT OF INVERSION AS THIS COLD AIRMASS MAY BE QUITE                
SHALLOW INITIALLY AS MRF MAY BE A BIT TOO AGRESSIVE WITH DEEP COLD              
AIR.                                                                            
THANKS FOR COORDINATION APX.                                                    
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT                          
       MIZ001>003-006-009.                                                      
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT AND SAT MIZ005.                         
RJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

PRELIMINARY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 PM CST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT.                                
FORECAST AREA ENJOYING A BRIEF WARMUP TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN              
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY CIRRUS...MOVING            
OVERHEAD. WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC 300-500MB VORTICITY SHOWS NEXT SYSTEM            
TO AFFECT THE OZARKS OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AT 19Z.             
THE UNDERLYING THEME FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE LACK OF                   
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AT LEAST THREE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION               
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT NONE OF THEM WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT                  
MOISTURE TO CAUSE MAJOR PROBLEMS.                                               
FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SHOW ME STATE EARLY THIS                          
EVENING...WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. SURFACE REFLECTION IS WEAK...WITH LIFT                   
OCCURRING IN MID LEVELS. AVN IS THE MOST BULLISH ON THIS                        
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE SIDED MORE TOWARD THE ETA.                                    
RAPID CLEARING TO OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SUNNY BUT COOL                  
WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. NEXT WAVE ROLLS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS                    
FORECAST FOR NOW...AND ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT.                  
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD FAST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AS REINFORCING                
SHOTS OF COLD AIR ROTATE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION FROM                
CANADA. MRF SHOWS 850 MB TEMPS FROM -12 TO -14 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON              
...WITH A COLDER AIRMASS EXPECTED FRIDAY (-15 TO -20). HAVE LEANED              
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MRF AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT FOLLOW THE MRF VERBATIM AT THIS TIME.                     
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                       
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
SUTTON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1142 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2001                                                     
STORM SYS TO MOVE DOWN ACRS ONT TODAY...THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE FA             
TONITE. S/W (AS SEEN IN H2O VAP IMAGERY) TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS             
REGION TODAY AND THE FA TONITE.                                                 
12Z 40KM RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE LWR TEENS-M20S TODAY WITH           
S-SW SFC WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U20S-M30S. FEW               
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS AND              
ABOVE DATA. SOME LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) MSTR TO MOVE IN ACRS THE FA              
FROM THE WEST TODAY. PW VALUES LOOK TO BE AOB 0.25" TODAY AND TONITE            
ACRS THE FA. RUC SHOWS PCPN TO AFFECT MOSTLY NY STATE TODAY.                    
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN CAA TONITE. SOME                 
LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY. PLENTY OF               
LOW-LVL MSTR TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO             
AFFECT THE FA AS WELL TONITE (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES).              
LOW-LVL (AND MID-LVL) LAPSE RATES TO BE HIGH ACRS THE FA TODAY AND              
TONITE.                                                                         
NGM BUFKIT SHOWS LES BAND OFF LK ONT TO MIGRATE TO THE NORTH OF THE             
CANADIAN BORDER FOR A TIME TODAY...THEN MOVE DOWN ACRS ST LAW CTY               
AGAIN BY LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. BUFCAN/KTYX RADAR DATA              
TRENDS THIS MORNING SUPPORT THIS. LES BAND LOOKS LIKE IT/LL SET UP TO           
THE SOUTH OF THE FA BY LATER TONITE. SPOTTER/COOP REPORTS INDICATE AS           
MUCH AS 9" OF NEW SNOW HAS FALLEN IN SW ST LAW CTY OVER THE LAST                
24 HRS. WILL CONT LES WARNING IN THAT NECK OF THE WOODS THRU TONITE.            
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD CLD COVER FORECAST BASED ON VIS SAT PIX              
TRENDS. WILL CONT WITH SCT POPS ACRS MUCH OF NY STATE (OUTSIDE OF LES           
BAND) TODAY AND PREVIOUS ZFP POPS FOR TONITE. FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO           
ZONES FOR PERIODS ONE THRU THREE AND I RE-GROUPED THE NRN ADIRONDACKS           
ZONES TOGETHER FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.                                         
WRK ZONES...FINAL ZFP AND WSW ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                          
.BTV...LES WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NYZ026.                                  
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt