AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
910 PM PDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
EARLIER UPDATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE DOWN THE SIERRA TO THE 3000          
FOOT ELEVATION OF THE MOTHERLODE. CONVECTION DIMINISHED QUICKLY IN              
LESS FAVORABLE REGION OF THE MOTHERLODE AS EXPECTED BUT SENT A NICE             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON WSR-88D AS 10-20DBZ FINE LINE. EXPLOSION               
CONVECTION DEVELOPED TODAY OVER THE WEST SLOPES OF THE                          
SIERNEV...MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50. STRONGEST CELL AFFECTED WESTERN                
ALPINE COUNTY AND TUOLUMNE COUNTIES. RADAR SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE VIL             
OF 65 KG/M2 AND VIL DENSITY VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 4.1 AND 4.8. THIS             
LIKELY PRODUCED LARGE HAIL BUT WAS BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 4 AND 108 IN                
FOREST. LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY                     
DEFORMATION ZONE AND WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE MONTEREY BAY COMBINED              
WITH STRONG AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING TRIGGERED THESE STORMS. RENO              
SOUNDING SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 0.81 INCHES WITH A DRY                   
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE. MOST MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED AT 550MB. RAN A                
COUPLE RUC ANALYZED SOUNDINGS OVER THE SIERNEV WHICH PRODUCED CAPE              
VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG OVER THE THUNDERSTORM REGION. MSAS SHOWED LI'S            
AS LOW AS -4. WITH SUNSET CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.                            
AFTER ANOTHER 100+ DAY IN THE SAC VALLEY A DELTA BREEZE HAS                     
DEVELOPED WITH 19 KNOTS AT FAIRFIELD. SAC-SFO PRESSURE GRADIENT OF              
3.9-MB WHICH IS UP SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY. LIMITED COOLING EFFECT              
HOWEVER AS KOAK MARINE LAYER ONLY 1100 FEET. MSAS SHOWING THERMAL               
LOW IN NORTHERN SAC VALLEY AT 03Z. MODELS INDICATE A RELAXING                   
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SETTING UP FOR MORE HEAT TOMORROW IN THE VALLEY              
AND FOOTHILLS. THEN GRADIENT IS SHOWN TO BECOME ONSHORE SFO-SAC OF              
4.0MB AGAIN ON THE ETA. ETA HANDLES THIS BETTER WITH ITS HIGHER                 
RESOLUTION OF 32KM.                                                             
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MOISTURE INCHING NORTHWARD FROM BAJA BUT RUNNING              
INTO DEFORMATION ZONE. H7 PROGS SHOW SOME OF THIS ADVECTING INTO THE CWA        
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW OPENS UP. MODELS SHOW A               
PERSISTENT PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY H5 FLOW OVER THE             
SIERNEV WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE STRONG CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80.              
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER VORT CENTER                 
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEVADA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE                
CREST EASTWARD. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AS A FLAT 588DM H5                 
RIDGE AND H85 TEMPS DOWN ONLY A DEGREE.                                         
COOLING TREND STILL ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND UNDER DIGGING H5                     
TROF. STRONG DELTA BREEZE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H5                     
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO LOWER. 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z/28 MRF CLOSES A LOW               
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE NOGAPS AND CANADIEN              
ARE MORE PROGESSIVE.                                                            
ONLY UPDATES EXPECTED WOULD BE TO FRESHNESS OF ZONE WORDING.                    
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
200 PM MDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
CHALLENGES FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE IN THE FIRST AND SECOND                  
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO POPS AND TEMPS.                                          
CURRENT SITUATION...                                                            
UPPER TROF REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN US PROVIDING                      
NORTHWEST FLOW AS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDES PLENTY OF                   
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC. TOGETHER THESE HAVE PUT THE FORECAST            
AREA IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SURGE              
FROM THE NORTH HAS PROVIDED SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW                
WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN OVER THE EAST AND ADDED TO THE                        
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS IT LIFTS AGAINST THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.               
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOWING UP ON RADAR WILL MOVE INTO HIGEER               
CAPE AREAS JUST EAST OF MOUNTAINS ACCORDING TO 18Z RUC SO POTENTIAL             
REMAINS FOR SOME OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE OVER AND CLOSE TO                     
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...                                                          
TEMPS AND POPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT AS SHORT WAVE DROPS                
INTO NRN COLO. SHOULD WARM UP AS GUIDANCE SHOWS. GUIDANCE POPS ARE              
LOW FOR THURSDAY AND GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HEATING FEEL AT            
LEAST CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER.                                                 
ALL THAT ENERGY MOVES EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT             
RETURNS AROUND BACKSIDE OF RIDGE ON FRIDAY. AVN HAS MORE MOISTURE               
THAN ETA AT 60 HOURS AND SEEMS TO DO BETTER IN THAT TIME FRAME SO               
WILL LEAVE CHC OR SLGT CHC POPS IN MOST AREAS.                                  
IN THE EXTENDED...                                                              
UPPER RIDGE IS MAINTAINED OVER SW US WITH TROFS ON EITHER US COAST.             
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A WARMING PERIOD BUT MODELS CONTIUE TO SHOW             
THE MOISTURE FROM EAST PAC WITH SHORT WAVES RIPPLING AROUND THE                 
RIDGE. WILL PUT CHC POPS IN SATURDAY BUT LEAVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY DRY            
FOR NOW. MRF MOVES UPPER RIDGE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY AS UPPER              
TROF OVER EAST PAC DEEPENS.                                                     
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
835 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
CONVECTION REDEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR            
CTYS THIS EVENING. ACTVTY IS DIMINISHING BUT STILL ACTIVE FROM NE               
OSCEOLA INTO VOLUSIA. VEERING OF STEERING FLOW N OF THE RIDGE                   
ALREADY IN EVIDENCE AS ACTVTY MOVING TO THE NE...N OF THE CAPE. WILL            
HOLD OFF ON UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS UNTIL ALL HAS DIED DOWN. SKIES                
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.                                               
MESO-ET/RUC SHOW BROAD SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHARPEN AND BE LOCATED               
JUST S OF THE CWA BY MORNING. WHILE SOME DRYING ADVERTISED NEAR NOSE            
OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE...THE E SIDE OF PENINSULA SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH          
CONVECTION NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                       
MARINE...WINDS AT BUOYS STILL SHOWING A SE DIRECTION BUT SHOULD                 
BEGIN TO VEER AFTER SUNSET AS GRADIENT FLOW TAKES OVER AND RIDGE                
DRIFTS S.                                                                       
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN                                                        
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KELLY                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                     
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF SOUTHWEST FL COAST IS                  
FLOODING THE WATERS OFFSHORE MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS IT CONTINUES             
TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH AIDED BY SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE. SMALL CU                   
LINES STREAMING OFF BAHAMIAN ISLANDS IN LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW ARE                 
FIRING UP AS THEY PASS UNDER STREAK MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN FL AND                 
BAHAMAS. MARINE WINDS CONTINUE FROM SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KT AROUND                
SURFACE RIDGE FROM ATLANTIC INTO N FL.                                          
12Z EYW RAOB SHOWS AIRMASS IS A LITTLE LESS MOIST THAN YESTERDAY BUT            
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
WITH PW OF 1.84 INCHES AND 31 K INDEX. NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO             
PUBLIC FORECAST.                                                                
MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH...BUT               
WILL HOLD OFF TILL TONIGHT AS PER LATEST RUC...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES             
TO COASTAL FORECAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN CHOKOLOSKEE            
ZONE COULD BE BUMPED UP BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE DECREASING SHORTLY.            
.EYW...NONE                                                                     
JEB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
925 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY/FORECAST...BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN            
SECTIONS...WHICH IS NOT A NORMAL LOCATION FOR THIS TIME OF THE                  
MORNING.  THIS LIKELY INDICATES THAT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE              
SCALE FACTOR INFLUENCING THE AREA.  WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC H25 WINDS              
SHOW DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW.  RUC WAS ALSO SHOWING THE WEAK                   
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS CONTINUING AT H50 ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN                
GULF.                                                                           
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOW AS MUCH...OR MORE                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN YESTERDAY (1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES).  BROAD                   
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS PROVIDING DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHERLY FLOW.                 
THOUGH THERE WAS EVIDENCE OF SOME DRYING AT H70 ON THE MIAMI                    
SOUNDING...THINK THAT THE PRESENCE OF VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WEAK            
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ONCE            
AGAIN TODAY.  MAIN DANGER WILL BE LIGHTNING BUT THE PRESENCE OF SOME            
DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.                   
WILL PROBABLY BUMP UP THE POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND                  
NORTH AND GOOD CHANCE FOR BREVARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS/SLIGHTLY LOWER                 
MOISTURE VALUES IN THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE...              
THOUGH EROSION OF DEBRIS CLOUDS YESTERDAY LED TO A SECOND ROUND OF              
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EVENING.                                                  
MARINE...MAIN PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS SINCE THE             
BROAD RIDGE WAS PROVIDING SOUTHEAST/SOUTH GRADIENT FLOW AROUND 10               
KNOTS.                                                                          
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GLITTO                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
751 PM MDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
UPDATED AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR A FEW REASONS...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE               
THUNDERSTORMS. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...             
BEST MOISTURE BEING PUSHED UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS LEADS TO              
THE SECOND REASON. ADJUSTED WINDS A BIT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WINDS               
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CWA.                 
JUST MENTIONED SOUTHEAST BUT LOWERED SPEEDS TO 5 TO 10 MPH BASED ON             
LATEST RUC/18Z ETA. OVER THE EAST KEPT IT LIGHT AND THEN BECOMING               
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH AS SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST. AS                
FOR CLOUDCOVER...00Z RUC INDICATING BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE            
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL LEAD TO             
A CLOUDY SKY. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE APPROACHING 80 PERCENT OR SO              
SUGGESTING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP. FURTHER EAST...AREA REMAINS UNDER              
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH AND LITTLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST SO I                   
ADJUSTED TO MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR TEMPS...18Z ETA SUGGESTING 50 TO 55               
OVER THE NORTH (WHERE LOWEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RESIDE) WHICH IS A             
FEW DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS FORECAST. REMAINING ZONES LOOK GOOD. NO              
OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                                             
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1158 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                     
FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WITH LAKE BREEZE/TROF          
INTERACTION                                                                     
14Z SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS REGION SHOWS SFC TROF LOCATED OVR ERN MN MVG            
SLWLY SE. CONVERGENCE ALG TROF AND EXITING H3 JET STREAK HAS                    
PRODUCED VRY SCT SPRINKLES ACROSS NRN WI INTO SW UPR MI THIS                    
MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS FROM DLH 88D SHOW ACTIVITY DECREASING              
AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO CWA. IN LIGHT OF TRENDS AND UPDATE                     
ATTENTION MAINLY FOCUSED ON -TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER...HAVE OPTED TO             
LEAVE ANY SPRINKLE MENTION OUT OF ZONES. BELIEVE THAT MAIN RESULT FM            
ABOVE FORCING ERLY AFTN WL BE THICKENING OF DIURNAL CU.                         
AFTN CONVECTION WL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF LK BREEZE                      
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST RUC SHOWS LK BREEZE DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18Z- 21Z.            
MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR ESC AT 21Z USING SFC TEMP/DWPT OF               
69F/54F YIELDS (LI/SBCAPE) OF (-5/1300JKG). AREAS ALONG LK MI WL SEE            
BEST SFC INSTABILITY DUE TO LK BREEZE TRANSPORTING 55F LK MI AIR                
INTO AREA. FARTHER WEST DWPTS OF UPR 40S WL LIMIT INSTABILITY.                  
FAIRLY GOOD DIF TEMP ADVECTION AS H5 COLD POOL OF -19 TO -21C SLIDES            
OVR AREA AFT 21Z...PRODUCING H10-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM. ALL IN            
ALL BEST CHANCES OF TSRA WL BE ALONG LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES IN             
ERN HALF OF UPR MI...AND ALSO ALG LK SUPERIOR/SFC TROF CONVERGENCE              
ZONE IN WRN UPR MI. MIXING TO H75 (00Z INL SOUNDING) AND UPSTREAM               
HIGHS YIELD TEMPS IN THE 65 TO 70F DEGREE RANGE. FCST TEMPS SEEM TO             
HAVE THIS IN HAND AND WL LEAVE ALONG NOW. HOWEVER IF THICKER CLOUDS             
PREVAIL FOR MAJ OF AFTN...TEMPS OF 70F WL BE HARD TO ATTAIN.                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1000 AM CDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND A FEW SHOWERS IN SW MN.                
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN             
NRN AND ERN ZONES.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOWING UP IN NW MN WITH             
RUC MODEL FORECASTING 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER SRN MN/WRN WI THIS              
AFTERNOON.  BETTER INSTABILITY IS FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH FORECAST              
PRESSURE FALLS.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT              
WEAK WARM ADVECTION.                                                            
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1018 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                     
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STABILIZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS              
TIME AS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH            
LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WEST                  
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS FOARD            
COUNTY. LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT                    
CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER THE AREA...WITH RECENT RUC/ETA GUIDANCE                   
CONTINUING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS               
THROUGH 700 MB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO SMALL POPS FOR         
NOW WHERE RADAR TRENDS SHOW MOVEMENT INTO THE AREA...BUT EXPECT TO              
BE ABLE TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ONE THIRD OF THE FORECAST              
AREA...WHERE THEY ONLY CURRENTLY EXIST...ONCE PRECIP DIMINISHES                 
COMPLETELY.                                                                     
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE LOWERED TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES IN              
AREAS WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM AT THE SURFACE. EXCEPT              
FOR WIDESPREAD CIRRUS...LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE NOT ABUNDANT...AND               
WITH PRIMARILY SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED IN THIS LAYER OVERNIGHT...DONT               
EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED CLOUD DECKS. FOG IS A            
POSSIBILITY LATER TONIGHT BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS                  
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO DEVELOP                 
WIDESPREAD LOW VISIBILITY FOG. WILL PROBABLY SEE PATCHY FOG WHERE               
WINDS DECOUPLE MORE AND WHERE RAIN WAS HEAVIEST LAST NIGHT/THIS                 
MORNING...BUT DON'T BELIEVE IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME.                
RECENT ANALYSES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO               
AFFECT WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY                     
NIGHT...WHICH IS WELL ADDRESSED BY CURRENT FORECAST.                            
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA, SC                                           
950 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
RUC 9Z AND ETA 6Z BOTH HAVE CWA IN WEAK 500 MB NVA THIS MORNING AND             
WEAK PVA THIS AFTN. ETA HAS US IN WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS             
AFTN. BASED ON ETA FCST AND CURRENT LAPS/MSAS/GOES VALUES EXPECT                
AFTN LI/S AROUND -5 AND CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. AIR MASS IS                 
QUITE MOIST. GOES SOUNDING HAS PW AROUND 2 IN AS DOES ETA FCST. FFC             
CHS AND GSO 12Z RAOBS SHOW 1.6 TO 1.8 IN. SO MOISTURE AND                       
INSTABILITY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTN CONVECTION. LOOK FOR WEAK PVA               
LATE THIS AFTN TO KICK OFF SCT TSTMS. WILL RAISE POPS A TAD FROM                
EARLY MRNG PKG FOR TDY AND TNGT. TEMP FCST LOOKS REASONABLE SO WILL             
NOT ALTER. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -7...MODEST CAPE AND WIND SHEAR                  
SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD NOT BE SVR.                                                
FCSTID = 04...CAMMARATA                                                         
CAE   92  73  87  68 /  30  30  50  40                                          
AGS   92  69  88  68 /  30  30  50  40                                          
SSC   92  73  87  68 /  30  30  50  40                                          
OGB   92  73  87  68 /  30  30  50  40                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
938 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
CLOUDS AND SHRAS DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WC MN ALONG WITH              
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. RUC MDL SHOWS DEEP DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS                
REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE             
CWA. UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SOME SMALL CHANGES.                               
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
N                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1017 PM CDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                     
COOL SFC RIDGING CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS                   
EVENING. 00Z ANLYS INDICATES SOME WEAK 8H UPSLOPE WILL ALLOW SFC                
AND BL WINDS TO CONT FROM A NE TO E DIRECTION. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO           
BE A SURE BET AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXTENT OF BR/FG IS STILL UNCERTAIN             
SINCE SFC DEW POINTS ARE LOWERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND                
NORTHCENTRAL COUNTIES.                                                          
00Z SOUNDING HAD ONLY 700 J/KG WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN RECENT           
DAYS. 00Z RUC KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BACK OVER              
THE MOUNTAINS. AREA OF TSRA OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND SOUTH                 
PLAINS FROM MOSQUERO TO TUCUMCARI TO FRIONA HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE            
SUNSET. UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE            
PERMIAN BASIN. LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WAA PATTERN SHOULD NOT              
REDEVELOP UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                           
UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS OUT SHORTLY...TEMPS LOOK FINE.                        
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
900 AM MDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A UNSTABLE AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH...WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS PREVAILS OVER                 
NORTHERN UTAH.                                                                  
DISCUSSION...AIRMASS CONTINUES MOIST AT MID LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHERN UTAH AS SEEN BY CLOUDS ON SATELLITE AND PLENTY OF                  
ECHOES ON THE RADAR AND EVEN LIGHTENING JUST SOUTH OF PUC.  UPDATED             
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO ADD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND                 
UPDATED FFI TO MODERATE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG GOOD INSTABILITY              
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH...THUS GIVEN EXISTING MOISTURE WE CAN              
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF GARDEN VARIETY CELLS.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT                 
ISOLATED CELLS IN THE NORTH AND THIS SUPPORTED BY RUC AND NEW ETA               
WITH MODEST CAPES AND LI'S FROM THE UINTAS WESTWARD TO U24.                     
SLC 1-- CDC 222  BURCH                                                          
.SLC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
929 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
WK HI PRESS SYS TO REMAIN OVER THE FA TONITE. WK SFC SYS TO DEVELOP             
AND MOVE ACRS SRN NEW ENG ON THU. VORT MAX (AND ASSOCIATED MID AND              
HI CLDS) MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ATTM. UPR L/W TROF TO MOVE              
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE AND ON THU. S/W'S TO ROTATE            
AROUND THIS TROF ON THU.                                                        
21Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS ACRS THE FA OVRNITE WITH TEMPS GETTING DOWN              
INTO THE U50S-M60S. SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN THE M60S IN A FEW LOCALES...           
SO THIS SEEMS A BIT ON THE HI SIDE. LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS           
THE GREAT LKS REGION/SRN NEW ENG TONITE. PLENTY OF UPR-LVL MOISTURE             
TO BE AROUND THE FA OVRNITE. IR SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF CLDS UPSTREAM            
OF THE FA ATTM. ANY PCPN EARLY TONITE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SAFELY TO              
THE SOUTH OF THE FA.                                                            
DEEPER MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM THE W-SW ACRS THE NORTHEAST OVRNITE            
AND LINGER ACRS THE REGION ON THU. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE            
FA TONITE...WITH WK WAA (ESPECIALLY ACRS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA)            
ON THU. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN HI ACRS THE FA THRU THU. CAPES            
ACRS THE FA ON THU APPEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 200-500 J/KG WITH WK            
SHEAR AND PW VALUES AROUND 1". BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE            
ACRS EASTERN/SRN SECTIONS OF THE FA. FEEL BEST CHC FOR PCPN ON THU              
WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN/SRN PARTS OF THE FA. GOING FORECAST              
HAS THIS COVERED WELL.                                                          
ADDED A LOT MORE CLDS FOR THE OVRNITE PERIOD. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A            
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND SAT PIX TRENDS. JUST A FEW COSMETIC                
TWEAKS TO LATER PERIOD WIND AND POP WORDING.                                    
WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP IN A BIT AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST            
LAMP DATA AND THE 01Z OBS.                                                      
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
220 AM MST THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
SYNOPSIS...DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA             
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.                        
DISCUSSION...ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER FORECAST REVOLVING AROUND HOW MUCH            
CLEARING WE'LL SEE DURING THE DAY. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS              
EVIDENT OVER COCHISE COUNTY AT 09Z BASED ON RADAR. ELEVATED SHOWERS             
HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH EXTENDS OUT TO THE            
OODHAM NATION. ONE BIG DIFFERENCE THIS MORNING, THOUGH, IS THAT                 
THESE CELLS ARE STAYING WARM TOPPED AND NOT ANVILING OUT VERY MUCH.             
WITH LESS ANVIL DEBRIS, WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PARTIALLY                    
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM TUCSON WEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS             
UPPER LEVEL DRYING PROGRESSING IN FROM SW AZ AS ANOTHER VORT MAX                
LIFTS NE TOWARD THE WESTERN RIM. UNDERNEATH THE "DRYING" ALOFT,                 
PRECIP WATERS ARE HOLDING AROUND 1.8" ACCORDING TO GOES-10 SOUNDER              
DATA. KYUX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A LEAK OUT OF THE GULF OF CA                  
(ABOUT 20KTS) EXTENDING UP TO 5KFT. OTHER MID LEVEL VORTS APPEAR TO             
BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH SONORA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF, WITH                     
EXTRAPOLATION PUTTING THE 1ST ONE INTO SE AZ BY 18Z. MODELS ARE ONCE            
AGAIN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES, BUT ALL              
AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DRYING WILL STOP CLOSE TO KTUS THIS                  
AFTERNOON WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER COCHISE COUNTY LIFTS TOWARD THE               
RIM. EVEN WITH THE DRYING ALOFT, SOUNDINGS SAY SOPPING WET WITH ONLY            
SLIGHT VEERING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER.                                          
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? I'VE BEEN HITTING AFTERNOON TSMTS TOO HARD             
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ASSUMING THAT VALLEY CONVECTION COULD GET               
GOING BEFORE 5PM. CONVECTION HAS FIRED BEFORE THEN, BUT HAS TENDED              
TO STAY ON THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL SUNSET. THAT'S THE MOST LIKELY                   
SCENARIO E OF KTUS TODAY WHERE THE VORT MAX WILL HOLD THE CLOUDS IN.            
ELSEWHERE, THOUGH, STORMS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO FIRE EARLIER TODAY              
WITH LESS DEBRIS AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ALLOWING THE SUN TO DO ITS              
JOB. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LAYING AROUND AND A BROAD MID             
LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD, CELL MERGERS AND RESULTING FLASH FLOODING MAY            
BE MORE COMMON. I DON'T WANT TO USE HEAVY RAIN WORDING YET BECAUSE              
EVEN THOUGH WE'RE SEEING SOME DRYING ALOFT, THE MID LEVELS ARE VERY             
SOUPY AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TO KEEP FORMING WIDESPREAD              
ALTOCU. THE RUC AND MESOETA CORRECTLY PREDICTED LOUSY CAPES                     
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTRARY TO THE AVN/ETA, BUT THEN HAD AN UPSWING            
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. TODAY THEY DO THE SAME THING IN THE E, BUT                 
BRING 1000-1500 CAPES INTO PIMA/PINAL COUNTIES BY 21Z. WE MAY HAVE              
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SINCE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PASSING OVER             
THE THETA-E RIDGE. DAY SHIFT WILL BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO USE                
STRONGER WORDING SHOULD THE CLEARING MATERIALIZE IN EARNEST, AND                
WILL ALSO HAVE THE BENEFIT OF 12Z SOUNDINGS AND A NEW MODEL RUN.                
AFTER TODAY, A BROKEN-RECORD MONSOON FORECAST IS IN ORDER. I STARTED            
HAVING DOUBTS YESTERDAY ABOUT A DOWNSWING I THOUGHT WE MIGHT HAVE               
THIS WEEKEND. NOW I SEE NO DOWNSHIFT AT ALL. IN FACT, WEAK SHORT                
WAVES SPINNING OFF THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GIVE US DECENT DYNAMICS            
AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY, EVEN THOUGH UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER            
WARM. HAVE DECIDED TO THROW IN THE TOWEL AND SWITCH TO "SCATTERED"              
WORDING FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO SENSE TRYING TO HEDGE WHEN                  
PRECIP WATERS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 1.25" RIGHT ON THROUGH THE 4TH.                
PYTLAK                                                                          
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
315 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
ONE FINAL SW IS PUSHING THE FNT S THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG. THIS IS              
AGAIN GENERATING SOME SHWRS ALG THE FNT IN THE W. THE FNT SHOWS UP              
NICE IN THAT DEWPOINTS TO THE NW ARE IN THE 50S AND SE IN THE 60S TO            
LOW 70S. ETA SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR MOVG ACRS THE AREA THIS MRNG. ALSO            
LOOKING 06Z RUC PICKS UP ON SHWRS IN THE W NOW AND MOVES THEM NE                
ACRS THE AREA THRU 15Z. LOOKS LIKE THIS AFTN SHD SEE SOME CLRG.                 
WL MENTION THUNDER OVR THE SRN PART OF THE AREA INTO ERLY AFTN.                 
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER VORT MOVG BY THIS AFTN BUT BY THEN MOST OF               
MOISTURE WL BE SE OF THE AREA AND PRECIP SHD END.                               
ON TNGT AND FRI SHD BE CLR SKIES WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRI.                
WL GO WITH OR A LITTLE ABV FWC NUMBERS. FAN HAS WARMER DAY TIMES                
HIGHS WHICH SEEM TO WARM WITH OUT MORE SUN TDY.                                 
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
920 PM EDT WED JUN 28 2000                                                      
DISC: THE WEAKEST FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING THE HEAVIEST RAIN. TODAY             
IS NO DIFFERENT AS PCPN CONTINUES TO FOCUS INVOF OF SFC WAVES MOVING            
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SW STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. VERY            
HIGH K VALUES OF 40 THRUOUT WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF HVY RAIN. PWT'S              
1.5 - 1.75 ACROSS SRN END OF CFA.                                               
ETA SHWNG STRONG S/W MOVING OVER OHIO VALLEY AT 00Z MOVING INTO NRN PA          
BY DAYBREAK SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPWARD VERT MOTION. SFC WAVE MAYBE              
E OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR STRONG PCPN BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT OVER THE            
NEXT FEW HOURS. RUC2 SHOWING MEAN RH OVER OHIO VALLEY OF 80%. MESO              
ETA CONTINUES TREND OF STRONG VV AFTER 06Z.                                     
ANYWAY...W/B SENDING WRKZNS OUT AND MAY UP THE WORDING FOR OCNL HVY             
RAIN IN SOME NRN ZONES.                                                         
EXCEPT FOR THE RAIN...MARINE AREA RATHER QUIET FOR OCEAN/BAY.                   
....NOTE...OUR WEB SITE HAS A NICE SUMMARY FOR THE "PERFECT STORM"              
AT THE TOP OF THE PAGE. WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI                                 
SEE YA AT 4 AM.                                                                 
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
EBERWINE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1008 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                     
CURRENTLY: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT DRAPED ENE TO WSW            
ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED A                  
FAIRLY LARGE CLEAR AREA ACROSS MUCH OF S GA AND THE BIG BEND. AREA              
RADARS INDICATE SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL AL              
AND JUST E OF CSG. FAIRLY EVENLY DISTRIBUTED SCATTERED SHOWERS                  
ACROSS THE NE GULF SPREADING ACROSS THE E BIG BEND WITH ISOLATED                
SHOWERS FURTHER W AND THEN A LARGER AREA OF TSRA S OF THE WESTERN               
PANHANDLE AND W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF MOB. MORNING TLH                 
SOUNDING VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWAT OF 1.90 INCHES AND                   
UNMODIFIED CAPE AND LI OF 2725 J/KG AND -5 RESPECTIVELY.                        
MODELS/ZFP: LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA SEEM TO SUPPORT THE 00Z ETA/NGM              
SOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SHORT WAVE (8-9 UNITS) PASSING                    
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OPPOSED TO THE STRONGER AVN.             
THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATES THAT SEVERE                 
WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THAT SAID...WITH ALL OF THE                
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A FAIR AMOUNT OF MORNING                    
INSOLATION AND THE SLOWLY ADVANCING BOUNDARY...WE FEEL COMFORTABLE              
WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. 14Z TEMP ALREADY WITHIN A                  
DEGREE OF PREDICTED MAX DUE TO GREATER THAN ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE.               
WILL NEED TO ADJUST MAX TEMP FORECAST UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.                       
MARINE: SCEC CONDITIONS ALREADY OBSERVED AT BUOY 42039 AND                      
APPROACHING AT CAPE SAN BLAS. OTHER MARINE OBS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KT              
AT THIS TIME. KTLH VWP SHOWING STEADY 20-25 KT WINDS FROM 1-10 KFT.             
MOST MODEL SFC WIND FORECASTS INDICATE MARGINAL SCEC CONDITIONS WITH            
NGM A BIT STRONGER. PLAN TO LEAVE SCEC HEADLINES IN PLACE. SEAS HAVE            
ONLY JUST BEGUN TO RESPOND TO THE WINDS...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH...            
THEY SHOULD RISE TO PREDICTED LEVELS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                    
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                     
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST                  
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                 
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.                                          
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: CHALLENGE THIS UPDATE IS HOW WIDESPREAD                   
WILL CONVECTION BE & ANY SVR?. WRKZFP OUT.                                      
PLENTY OF ACCAS THIS MRNG INDICATING INSTABILITY. WILL CONT                     
W/PRVS TREND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. BEST SHOT FOR NRN/CNTL ME W/VORT           
MAX ACRS LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO FCST TO MOVE NE ACRS NRN/CNTL ZNS THIS              
AFTN-EARLY EVNG. 12Z CAR RAOB ALREADY UNSTABLE W/CAPES ARND 300 J/KG            
& TTS 47. LIS -2. PWS ARND .75". ATMOS EXPECTED TO DESTABLIZE MORE.             
MID-UPPER LVLS COOLED OVER PAST 12 HRS & EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN                  
MORE AS S/WV APCHS. 12Z RUC SNDGS CLOSE TO REALITY & FCSTG THGS TO              
DESTABLIZE RAPIDLY THIS AFTN W/CAPES BTWN 500-1000 J/KG. WOULDN/T BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HAIL W/TSRAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THGS CLOSELY           
THIS AFTN.                                                                      
FOR TEMPS...BELIEVE PRVS PKG IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL SEE ABOUT                      
ADJUSTMENTS AFT 10 AM OBS.                                                      
COASTAL WATERS...STEADY AS SHE GOES. NO CHGS ANTICIPATED. S WINDS               
THIS AFTN 10-15.                                                                
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
JOE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
1015 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                     
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN WILL BE THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE                      
UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THIS FEATURE WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES                     
AND INTO MY CWA THIS AFTN.                                                      
EXAMINED BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND THE 06Z MESO-ETA.  BOTH MODELS                    
INDICATED A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MODERATE                   
PVA OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING SURPRISING SHOWED SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                 
THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT                  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND TSTM                      
ACTIVITY.  A MID LEVEL CAP WAS EVIDENT ON THE SOUNDING AS                       
WELL.  THIS CAP SHOULD ERODE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES.                  
SAT IMG SHOWED SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN                       
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE.                                                   
IN SUMMARY...I THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS                  
WILL IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE                   
THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER.                       
I WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALL AREAS.  I MAY HAVE TO UP POPS TO                       
LIKELY/HIGH CHC FOR NW PA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BASED                     
ON CURRENT RADAR AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS.                                       
.CLE...NONE.                                                                    
GARNET                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
900 AM PDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE MID AND HIGH             
CLOUDINESS THAN ANTICIPATED. WE WILL UPDATE ALL ZONES TO COVER THIS.            
LATEST ETA AND LAST NIGHT'S AVN SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE RUNNING OVER              
THE RIDGE TODAY. THIS...ALONG WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITH           
MOISTURE ALOFT IS CAUSING THE CLOUDINESS. ONE GOOD THING IS THE                 
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS CHANNELED AND WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY'S                    
SHORTWAVE. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND CAPE...ALONG WITH Q VECTOR               
DIVERGENCE SUPPORTS NO THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. ONE THING THAT MIGHT              
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT LOWER                
LEVELS WITH THE INCOMING MARINE PUSH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ETA            
AND RUC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS WEAK THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING SO I              
FEEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT CAUSE ANY BUILDUPS TODAY.                    
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY IN           
THE EAST. EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO IS RIGHT UNDER THE              
THERMAL RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO ONE MORE DAY OF HOT               
WEATHER. ZONES JUST EAST OF THE CASCADES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER SINCE           
THE THERMAL RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST. THE BIG CONCERN IS THE WINDS FOR              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SOUNDING SHOWS THAT WE SHOULD MIX            
CLOSE TO 700 MB. THEREFORE...AS THE COLD ADVECTION FROM THE MARINE              
PUSH MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE SHOULD           
MIX DOWN 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SURFACE IN MANY AREAS. WE WILL UPDATE            
THE AFFECTED ZONES AND BOOST THE WIND SPEEDS FOR THE FIRST AND/OR               
SECOND PERIODS. TJC                                                             
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 089/054/083 000                                                             
CQV 093/050/088 000                                                             
S86 088/049/081 000                                                             
COE 089/052/082 000                                                             
WWP 086/046/080 000                                                             
LWS 095/060/088 000                                                             
MOS 087/048/081                                                                 
EAT 092/061/084 000                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
236 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY: COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AS A            
THIN LINE OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SC WSW                 
ACROSS N GA NEAR ATLANTA AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO S MS.                  
CONVECTION IS FIRING RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM AL BACK INTO THE             
CAROLINAS. THE FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SEWD              
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA HAVE                     
DEVELOPED ALREADY WITH ISOLATED TS.                                             
MODELS/ZFP: FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS TIMING OF FROPA ACROSS               
OUR CWFA. THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CLARIFY THIS               
SITUATION. THE ETA BRINGS THE FRONT INTO OUR NW ZONES AFTER 06Z AND             
THEN FORMS A WAVE ON THE BOUNDARY IN SW GA. THIS EFFECTIVELY HALTS              
ANY FURTHER SEWD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT..BUT DOES ALLOW IT GET                   
THROUGH OUR SE AL ZONES. THE NGM ALSO FORMS A WAVE ON THE                       
FRONT...BUT FURTHER E NEAR THE GA COAST. THIS ALLOWS THE FRONT TO               
MAKE IT INTO N FL FRI AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE SE BIG BEND BY FRI             
NIGHT. THE AVN FORMS A STRONGER WAVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THAT IN             
TURN WHIPS THE FRONT THROUGH TLH BY MIDDAY FRI AND INTO CENTRAL FL              
BY SAT MORNING. THE AVN IS ALSO MORE POTENT WITH IT/S UPPER LEVEL               
ENERGY WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES THAN DEPICTED BY ETA OR                
NGM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST RUC FAVOR THE WEAKER ETA/NGM            
SOLUTION. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLUGGISH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS             
WELL. WE WILL THEREFORE PLAN ON FOLLOWING THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NGM            
FOR TIMING FROPA. FWC/FAN POPS ARE REMARKABLE SIMILAR CONSIDERING               
MODEL DIFFERENCES. WE PLAN ON FOLLOWING A BLEND FOR TONIGHT AND                 
GOING ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER FOR FRI. WILL ACCEPT ISOLD POPS FOR FRI           
NIGHT. BY SAT...THE FRONT HAS EITHER MOVED THROUGH OR WEAKENED SO SEA           
BREEZE CLIMO TAKE OVER. ALL MODELS SHOW DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS                
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER PWATS. THE ETA DROPS THE PWAT BELOW 1.4              
INCHES SAT AFTERNOON. 1000-700 MB FLOW SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO             
NE FLOW WHICH ARGUES FOR A 30 TO 40 POP IN FL. WITH MINIMAL INLAND              
PENETRATION OF SBF...WILL LOWER POPS N OF THE BORDER ON SAT. WILL               
FOLLOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS EXCEPT WILL GO A FEW DEGREES LOWER             
FOR FRI MAX DUE TO ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHRA.                     
MARINE: MOST MAREPS SUSTAINED AOA 15 KT AND WILL LEAVE SCEC IN PLACE            
FOR NOW. SW WINDS BECOME W AND DIMINISH A BIT BY MORNING. W WIND FRI            
AND THEN NW FRI NIGHT.                                                          
EXTENDED: THE FRONT IS S OF US BY SUN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING              
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. OUR FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE SE SUPPORTING                
DAILY SEA BREEZE POPS.                                                          
THANKS FOR COORDINATION JAX. OTHER INPUT ALWAYS WELCOME.                        
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  74 89 69 93  5623                                                          
PFN  74 87 74 90  5623                                                          
DHN  70 88 69 93  5311                                                          
ABY  70 87 69 92  5311                                                          
VLD  73 88 69 93  5512                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS FOR SHOWER CHANCES IN NRN AND ERN                  
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER NW WI...MAY SLIDE             
SOUTHWARD.  THERE IS A WEAK THETA-E GRADIENT DEVELOPED BY THE RUC               
MODEL OVER FAR NRN MN AND W CENTRAL WI FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.              
FORECAST WILL LEAVE MENTION OF A SHOWER THIS EVENING...WHERE BETTER             
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED IN E CENTRAL MN AND W CENTRAL WI.  LATER                 
TONIGHT ACTIVITY IN NEB/SD SHOULD MOVE AS AN MCS INTO IA...MODELS               
INDICATE ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SW MN TO              
MENTION A CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT STORMS OVER THE FAR W CENTRAL.                   
FURTHER OUT RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLOWLY INTO AREA.  TRANSITION IS ENOUGH             
TO MENTION LATE DAY STORMS IN SRN ZONES FRI AFTERNOON.  ALL MODELS              
GENERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ON                
SATURDAY THE WARM UP CONTINUES.  A BOUNDARY SETS UP ON SATURDAY IN              
CENTRAL MN...SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE...SATURDAY NIGHT THE            
IS MCS POTENTIAL IN ND/NW MN THAT MAY AFFECT CENTRAL MN.                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
215 PM MDT THU JUN 29 2000                                                      
SMALL CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT AIR MASS            
IS VERY WARM AND NOT MUCH VERTICAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE            
ACROSS EASTERN WA HANDLED BEST ON RUC MODEL...SHIFTING ACROSS                   
NORTHWEST MT INTO RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE MUCH WEAKER THAN             
YESTERDAY AND ANTICIPATE LITTLE THREAT OF CONVECTION.                           
UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BC COAST SHIFTS ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS              
OCCURS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO EASTERN MT. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE MOVES            
INTO WESTERN MT BY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO PROVIDE                
ADEQUATE LIFT FOR CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS LACKING IN MOISTURE SO WILL             
KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. BEST CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE                
COUPLET WILL BE SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA ON FRIDAY. MAIN ISSUE TOMORROW            
WILL BE WINDS GENERATED BY SURFACE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 20-25KT               
RIDGETOP WINDS. FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS OVER REGION INTO SATURDAY WITH             
EVEN MORE INSTABILITY THEN...AFTERNOON WINDS REDEVELOP TOO. TEMPS               
REMAIN JUST ABOVE NORMAL BUT EXPECT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING              
NEXT TWO DAYS...MAINLY FROM CLOUD COVER.  BOLDT                                 
EXTENDED...MODELS IN AGREEMENT SUGGESTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE               
CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A TROF DEEPENS OFF THE WEST COAST. SOME CLEARING             
ON DAY 3...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PORTIONS BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE             
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 4 DUE TO CONTINUED UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST               
FLOW. ON DAY 5...TROF MOVES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE                        
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
AS WELL AS COOLING TEMPS.  STOLL                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mt