FXUS63 KSGF 110742
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE WEEKEND.  FURTHER ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DESERT 
AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING AROUND THE 
BASE OF A LARGE SCALE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  ULTIMATELY 
THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH 
PLAINS TO MIX INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS UNUSUAL 
POSITIONING MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS 
AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...THAT MAY PROGRESS INTO WESTERN 
MISSOURI WITH TIME.  

1000 - 850 PARTIAL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE LOW 90S ARE POSSIBLE 
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  MID TO 
UPPER 80S ARE LIKELY DEEPER INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL 
MISSOURI.  AS THE DRYLINE SURGES INTO EASTERN KANSAS...100 MB MIXED 
LAYER CAPES WILL INCREASE TO VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH 
LITTLE TO NO INHIBITION.  ITS STILL A BIG QUESTION MARK AS TO 
WHETHER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN TRIGGER ANY 
STORMS.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...ANY STORMS THAT 
DO FIRE WILL BECOME SEVERE.  HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR TO BE 
WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATION WITHIN STORMS AS STRONG UPDRAFTS 
MAXIMIZES THE STRETCHING OF VORT ROLLS.  0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VECTOR 
ORIENTATION RELATIVE TO DRYLINE SUGGESTS DISCRETE CELLS...AND THE 
PRIMARY HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.      

FOR THE REST OF MISSOURI...PULSE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED 
TODAY AS THE NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINS TO DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY.  ANY TOWERS THAT 
MANAGE TO PUSH THROUGH THE WEAK CAP WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SUSTAINING 
THEMSELVES WITH MID LEVEL MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 30 
PERCENT...ULTIMATELY CHOKING THE UPDRAFTS.  WOULD SUSPECT THAT A FEW 
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE SURFACE WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE WITH...SO 
WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR MASS 
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.  THIS MAY BE CAUSE 
FOR POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...THE GFS BRINGS IN 
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THIS AREA.  INCREASED POPS TO 30S 
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT.  

THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY BASIS.  A FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY MONDAY.  

LONG TERM (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)...
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS 
FINALLY SPREADS THROUGH THE OZARKS.  THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES...HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED 
LIKE A HAWK FOR ANY SWIFT MOVING DISTURBANCES THAT MAY AFFECT THE 
AREA.  AT THIS POINT...I CAN NOT SEE ANY REASONS TO MENTION ANY 
PRECIPITATION.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KSGF AND KJLN. LIKE THE 
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MODERATE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MIX DOWN 
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF 
KSGF. AIR MASS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND DRYLINE WILL 
SURGE INTO EASTERN KS TODAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL 
LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA...SO DID NOT INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP 
FOR KJLN ATTM...HOWEVER...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT TSTM CHANCES 
WITH 1200Z TAFS.

DSA


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE. 
KS...NONE.

$$

WFO SGF