SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
910 PM MST TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT FROM             
MEXICO AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST                
CALIFORNIA. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR A RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL MONSOON              
THUNDERSTORM REGIME. MEANWHILE...A MOIST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY              
FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT SERVERAL DAYS AS           
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF ARIZONA.                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMMUNICATION AND WEATHER PROBLEMS HAVE EATEN UP TIME THIS EVENING.             
IN ADDITION...ONLY NEW MODEL DATA IS FROM THE RUC. THE RUC IMPLIES A            
WEAKENING OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT HAS ENHANCED THE THUNDERSTORMS             
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOT CONVINCED OF THAT BASED ON SATELLITE AND            
RADAR TRENDS EAST OF THE PHX AREA. BASED ON THE PREFERRED 12Z ETA...            
WE SHOULD LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PER CURRENT              
FORECAST. WILL LET THE FORECAST RIDE...BUT WILL MAKE A FEW 1ST PERIOD           
CHANGES FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND TIMING.  WILT                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPSR 272150  az                                      

AFSOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
930 AM MST TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO               
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY...RESULTING IN NUMEROUS                       
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL                
DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE              
EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...FOR THE CONTINUED             
THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.                           
DISCUSSION...FIRST EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND                  
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY HAVING PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHTNING                 
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS CENTER OF SECOND                  
EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS THE BORDER IN CHIHUAHUA MOVING AT ABOUT 30 MPH.            
BIG QUESTION IS WILL IT MOVE NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA AS THE              
MODELS SHOW...OR WEST THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. IN EITHER CASE                   
DYNAMICS WOULD REACH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CENTER OF            
THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE FILLING IN WITH MORE MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE            
ACTIVITY. LEADING EDGE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WITH BUILD UPS            
DEVELOPING NEAR EL PASO AT THIS TIME.  SOUNDING SHOWS EASTERLY WIND             
AT LOW LEVELS AND SOUTHEASTERLY ALOFT...THE RUC AGREES WITH THIS AT             
12Z. BUT BY 18Z THE RUC SHOWS FLOW AT BOTH LEVELS FROM THE SAME                 
DIRECTION. THUS ANVILS WILL MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS AND                    
COOL/STABILIZE THE AIR THE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO. THIS ALL LOOKS               
SIMILAR TO  YESTERDAY...EXCEPT THERE IS MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING AS               
THE EASTERLY WAVE MOVES INTO ARIZONA DURING THE HEATING PERIOD OF               
THE DAY. ALSO...SOUNDING SHOWS UPPER LEVEL COOLING HAS OCCURRED.                
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. WILL INCLUDE SOUTHEAST                
PINAL COUNTY...BUT IF THE WAVE MOVE WEST RATHER THAN                            
NORTHWEST...MAIN RAINFALL MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF TUCSON.             
PREFER THE NGM INITIALIZATION. GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER DOES             
SHOW DRIER AIR BETWEEN ARIZONA AND THE WAVE...BUT WITH ALL THE                  
MOISTURE HERE NOW DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A BIG FACTOR. NGM PUTS              
THE THETA E RIDGE OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THUS SOME STORMS MAY BACK               
BUILD INTO THE HIGHER MOISTURE AS YESTERDAY. THE THETA E RIDGE MOVES            
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT.                                                   
.TWC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH 19Z TO 03Z ZONES 29,30,32,33,34,AND 35.                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 271611  az                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
EASTERLY WAVE NOW MOVING THRU SRN AZ/NW MEXICO ACCORDING TO                     
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z RUC. THE RUC CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS FEATURE             
SLOWLY NWWD TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...WILL               
NEED TO WATCH ITS MOISTURE AND PROGRESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE                  
MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED TO 2500-3000 FEET ACCORDING TO THE FT ORD             
PROFILER WHILE SNS-FAT AND SMX-FAT PRESSURE GRADIENTS SUPPORT                   
CONTINUED IMPORT OF MARINE AIR INTO THE INTERIOR VALLEYS TONIGHT AS             
SEEN ON LATEST SURFACE PLOT. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT LOOK GOOD            
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND 24 HOUR CHANGES. WILL PREPARE AN UPDATE              
FOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS TONIGHT.   SR                                            
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KEKA 280348  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE               
ROTATING OVER CWA AT THIS TIME. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH            
SIGNIFICANT WARMING ABOVE 600 MB. RUC AND MESO ETA FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS PROG MID-LEVEL WARMING TO CONTINUE TODAY... WHICH SHOULD              
CAP DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT. APPEARS             
RECORD HIGH OF 99F FOR TLH IS STILL IN JEOPARDY...AS WE ARE ALREADY             
AT 85F. LAMP PROGS KEEP LOW 70F DEWPOINTS OVER AREA ...RESULTING IN             
HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 110F. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN               
ZONES AND UPDATED SPS.                                                          
MARINE: A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING SW OF AQQ...BUT EXPECT THESE TO             
DISSIPATE SOON...SO WILL OMIT MENTION IN CWF UPDATE FOR AFTERNOON.              
ALL ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                        
UPDATED CWF (MIAWRKTL2) ALREADY SENT. UPDATED ZONES (MIAWRKTL1) ON              
THE WAY. INPUT/FEEDBACK ALWAYS WELCOME.                                         
TJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 271338  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
849 AM EST TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
ST/FG LIFTING ACRS SRN LWR MI. WL UPDATE FOR MSNY WITH SIG DRY AIR              
ABOVE 860 MB PER SNDGS/WV IMAGERY...ONLY SCT FLAT CU EXPECTED. 950 MB           
RUC TEMPS TO 27C BY 21Z MAY TWEAK A FEW TEMPS UP TO NEAR 90 BASED ON            
14Z OBS.                                                                        
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
PBM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 270840  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN FOR ERY PRT OF FCST IS WHERE WARM FNT WL BE LOCATED AND            
THE ASSOCIATED DVLPMNT INVOF THE BNDRY HOWEVER THIS IS NOT ONLY AREA            
OF CONCERN AS OLD BNDRY LIES S OF THE ST.  BELIEVE AFT THIS ROUND OF            
DVLPMNT THAT LKLY JUST HEAT AND HUMIDITY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.                     
IN THE SHORT TERM RUC/ETA APPEARS TO BE HANDLING FEATURES WELL AT               
THIS TIME.  OLD BNDRY JUST SOUTH OF THE ST AND DEEP MOISTURE CAN NOT            
LIFT POPS IN SRN PORTION OF THE ST.  CAPES 5600-7800 AND LIS -8 TO -            
10 STG CASE FOR POPS.  MNWHLE UP NORTH WL LKLY REDUCE GD CHC TO CHC             
AS WARM FNT CONTINUES TO MOVE N.  2 TO 2.5 MB FALLS IN DAKS AND MN              
WITH SHARP INCRS IN DEWPT SINCE MRNG, LOW TO MID 60S TO LOW TO MID              
70S IMPRESSIVE AND HINT WARM FNT ON THE MOVE.  MIDDLE OF THE ST LOOKS           
LEAST FAVORABLE FOR DVLPMNT AS STEERING FLO DOES NOT FVR MVMNT TWD              
CNTRL IA AND NW FLO OVR MUCH OF THE NRN PORTION OF THE ST WULD                  
SUGGEST DVLPMNT ERN SD WULD DRIFT INTO THE NC AND NE.  PWS RMN IN THE           
2 TO 2.5 IN RANGE SO IF DVLPMNT OCCURS THO ISOLD WULD NOT XPCT FFA              
ATTM.                                                                           
THO CRITERIA WL LKLY BE MET ON WED AND THU FOR HEAT ADVSRY TNGT                 
MARGINAL ON CRITERIA.  REST OF FCST PD LOOKS HOT AND HUMID AS ANY               
FOCUSING BNDRY LACKING AND ACTION SHULD TAKE PLACE WELL NORTH OF IA.            
MST OF THE AREA UNDER NVA THO A FEW MINOR S/W WASH OUT OVR THE ST               
WITH NO BNDRY TO FOCUS ON AND LKLY STG CAP DO NOT SEE DVLPMNT UP TO A           
30 PCT THRESHHOLD.                                                              
GUID LOOK GOOD AND EVEN FVR HIER FWCS AS HINT OF A DRIER WRLY FLO OVR           
NXT SVRL DAYS CULD PUSH CNTLR IA TO THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR FIRST               
TIME AS JUST SVRL DAYS AGO DESPITE HIGH HUMIDITY HIT 98.                        
LOOK INTO EFP MDLS FOR CNTRL U.S. VRY CLOSE IN SOLUTION HWVR IN LTR             
PDS DIFF IN LARGE TORF FEATURES CULD AFFECT IA.  ATTM UPR RDGE OVR              
CNTRL U.S. BROKEN DWN BY SUCCESSIVE S/WS HITTING INTO THE NRN PORTION           
OF RIDGE SUPRESSING THE RIDGE SWRD BRINGING SUMWHAT WNW FLO OVR THE             
AREA WITH LWRING HTS AND CHC FOR PCPN EA DAY AND EVENTUAL COOLING               
INTO LOWER 80S BY NXT WEEK.                                                     
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FORSTER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 271555  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
OVC MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NERN HALF OF FA AT TIME... WITH PARTLY         
SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SE.  KLWX RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED WEAK                
RETURNS OVER CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA.. BUT HAVEN'T SEEN ANY REPORTS          
OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.                    
03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT LOBE SWINGING           
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TIME           
SECTIONS SHOW SOME RELATIVELY HIGH RH VALUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH              
18Z.. BUT DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS AS WE PASS INTO A                  
SUBSIDENT PATTERN BEHIND THE VORT LOBE.  HAVE BROKEN UP ZONES GROUPS A          
LITTLE BIT.. TO INDICATE MORE CLOUDS FOR DC/BALTIMORE.                          
ETA/RUC BOTH SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON. AMS CURRENTLY QUITE STABLE WITH LI VALUES AROUND 5 OR 6...           
BUT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY DE-STABILIZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS         
AND MODIFIED 12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWING WEAK CAPE AOA 600.. BUT A 1-2             
DEGREE CAP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH CAP IN PLACE         
AND WITH NWLY FLOW THAT STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.. AND FEEL               
PRETTY CONFIDENT WITH DRY FORECAST.                                             
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ONE CAT FOR MOST ZONES. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NERN          
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE KEPT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S THIS MORNING..            
AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO HIGH.              
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
MARGRAF!                                                                        
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1015 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO                    
FORECAST AREA AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                     
BAND OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WARM                           
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPILLING SE INTO UP/NORTHERN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY               
AIRMASS OVER FA. 0Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED A MARKED DRY LAYER BELOW               
700 MB...SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIP WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE ALOFT.            
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.                               
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS SHRA WILL FIRST SPREAD INTO             
UP AND NORTHERN 1/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS             
FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN ARE PUSHING SE TOWARD IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY             
AND WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OUR PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO REGION FROM NW. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S/E                
WILL DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESS BEFORE MORNING. 18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC             
ONLY DEPICT PRECIP INTO N/NW COUNTIES OF FA BEFORE 12Z...SUGGESTING             
THAT CURRENT POPS ACROSS THE S/SW ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF             
SUGGESTED THAT ALL MEASUREABLE PRECIP WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH                  
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS                  
SOLUTION IGNORES NW/SE BAND OF PRECIP ALREADY PUSHING INTO AREA.                
EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP...                
LATEST MESOETA/RUC SOLUTIONS APPEAR TOO SLOW. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS             
IN FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MBL TO HTL IN THE WEST...AND WILL ADD               
POPS TO PRESQUE ISLE-APN-ALCONA GROUP. FURTHER...WILL BUMP POPS UP              
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE UP AND UP TO 50 PERCENT PLN/GAYLORD VCNTY. WILL            
ONLY KEEP FAR SE...GLADWIN/ARENAC GROUP...DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.                        
HOWEVER...EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS WARM                       
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD INTO REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE                 
MENTION OF THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z.                  
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPS OVERNIGHT.                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 280216  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
...FIRST PERIOD FOCUS IS SVR THREAT...                                          
SFC WARM FRONT EVIDENT ON 18Z ANALYSIS FROM LO OVR SD SE ACROSS                 
CENTRAL MN. ISENTROPIC ASCENT CLEARLY EVIDENT AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH              
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD SHIELD AND SHRA/TSRA ACROSS N MN. MOISTURE                 
GRADIENT TO WEST IMPRESSIVE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 AHEAD OF FRONT               
AND MID 70S IN SW MN AND E SD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE NE EARLY                
TONIGHT INTO CWA...AS UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WV            
IMAGERY OVR NW SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES ESE IN UPR FLOW. RUC DEPICTS              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE/THETA-E RIDGE NOSING INTO NE MN BY 03Z ON              
35KT SW LLJ. MCS DEVELOPING LIKELY IN THIS REGION WITH EXPECTED                 
MOVEMENT TO SE ALONG 700-300MB THICKNESS FIELD. THIS PLACES UPR MI              
SQUARELY IN THREAT AREA. SPC INCLUDED W CWA IN MODERATE RISK                    
TONIGHT. BEST INSTABILITY REMAIN NR WI BORDER WHERE ETA CAPES CLIMB             
TO 2000-2500J/KG AFTER 00Z. BELIEVE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE             
S CWA WHERE INSTABILITY IS THE HIGHEST.                                         
WEDNESDAY...MODELS BRING 500MB SHORTWAVE SE ACROSS CWA BETWEEN                  
15-21Z...WHILE MCS THREAT WILL BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING. MID-LEVEL             
QVECTOR DIV OVERSPREAD W CWA AFTER 18Z AND E CWA BY 00Z...SO GRADUAL            
DRYING AND AN END TO PRECIP WILL OCCUR THEN. DRIER AIR AND QVECTOR              
DIV DOMINATE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NGM/ETA DEPICT NEXT SHORTWAVE AND             
SFC TROF APPROACHING CWA THURSDAY MORNING. NGM DYNAMICS/PRECIP FIELDS           
MORE IMPRESSIVE...WITH ETA LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE. ATTM WILL LEAVE                
PRECIP OUT GIVEN MINIMAL FWC POPS...HOWEVER CHANCE POPS MAY BE WARRANTED        
WITH NEXT MODEL RUN. THURSDAY APPEARS HOT AND DRY WITH 20-22C 850               
TEMPS WARM ADVECTING INTO CWA ON WESTERLY FLOW WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR              
90F MUCH OF UPR MI.                                                             
EXTENDED RANGE...UPR MI REMAINS IN ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN QUASI-STATIONARY          
HUDSON BAY VORTEX AND BROAD RIDGE COVERING SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF               
CONUS. PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS POTENT SHORTWAVE NOW DROPPING             
SE THRU AK. MODELS DIG THIS FEATURE SE INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY                   
FRIDAY. SFC REFLECTION OF THIS UPR FEATURE EVIDENT AS SFC LO MOVING             
INTO W ONTARIO BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ASSOC COLD FRONT CROSSING                 
WESTERN GREAT LKS ON SATURDAY. THIS RUN OF MRF IS NEARLY 12HRS                  
SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE LAST. ECMWF SUPPORTS A SLOWER                 
SOLUTION...IMPLYING GRADUALLY INCREASING RETURN FLOW/HUMIDITY OF                
FRIDAY AND CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY WITH FRONT. HAVE REMOVED                
PRECIP FROM E CWA ON FRIDAY TO REFLECT SLOWER SOLN. SFC HI PRS                  
DOMINATES ON SUNDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THERMAL TROF OVER               
REGION. ON MONDAY...LATEST MRF DEPICTS RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN                 
ASSOC WITH RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND              
HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THIS IDEA INCONSISTENT WITH LAST MRF RUN...AND               
NOT SUPPORTED BY ECMWF OR CANADIAN MODELS. GIVEN PROGRESSIVELY                  
SLOWER MRF SOLN AND LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH                         
FEATURE...WILL NOT ALTER MONDAY'S DRY FCST ATTM.                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 271608  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
THE GOING FORECAST HAS THINGS PRETTY WELL IN HAND... SO WILL ONLY               
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. ONE LINGERING PATCHE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS               
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN OTTAWA AND KENT COUNTIES... AND EASTERN                   
ALLEGAN COUNTY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS CONTINUING TO ERODE THIS                
AREA INWARD UPON ITSELF... AND FEEL IT WILL BE GONE BY NOONTIME...              
SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE ZONES. ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS                
SOUTHEAST OF LANSING WILL EXPERIENCE THE SAME FATE.                             
THE 12Z RUC AND THIS MORNING/S SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A BIT MORE IN THE              
WAY OF CU THAT WAS EXPECTED... PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART              
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN ABOVE 70. MAY GO WITH A             
PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST IN PLACE OF MOSTLY SUNNY... BUT WILL WAIT TO             
SEE HOW CU DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR OR SO. MODIFIED                     
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER THE             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE 12Z ETA SUPPORTS                
THIS AS WELL... WITH CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SOUTH OF I-96.                     
FORTUNATELY... THERE IS A BIT OF A CAP... AND THERE IS NO                       
SUBSTANTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THE RUC SHOWS               
SOME PCPN DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THE WEST SIDE OF                   
SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS... BUT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO                
SKATE BY WITH A DRY AFTERNOON UNLESS SOMETHING MANAGES TO POP UP                
ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE BREEZE. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT OF               
THE FORECAST... BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF AN ISOLATED CELL                    
DEVELOPED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE SOUTH OF I-196.                                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY... SO WILL LEAVE THEM AS IS.                             
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1145 AM... AND THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK               
WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOON.                                                    
.GRR...NONE                                                                     
TRH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 271428  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
958 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND UPPER AIR ROABS FROM SURROUNDING                
SITES SHOWED A STRONG CAP OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.  WEAK FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY OVER IA AND NEBRASKA LIFTING NORTH TDA.  RUC MODEL BY                  
00Z/28TH SHOW AIRMASS DESTABLIZE ACRS AREA WITH SFC LIFTED INDICES              
MINUS 6 TO 9 WITH SBCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                  
SHOWED A JET ACRS NORTH CNTRL MN.  TSRA HAD OCCURRED ALONG THE                  
THETA-E RIDGE OR NOSE IN RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET.                
OUR NORTHERN PTN OF CWA WL BE IN LINE FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON.  WL CONTINUE THE SMALL POP GOING.  HAVE MADE SOME MINOR              
CHANGES TO TEMP FORECAST...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS                      
TIME.                                                                           
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
JVM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 270843  mn                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
230 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHCENTRAL            
US ON MORNING ANALYSIS. EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN-MOST                
SECTION OF FA ALSO IN EVIDENCE ON ANALYSIS. PRECIPITABLE H20 AMOUNTS            
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS MOVED SOUTH            
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF FA THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MIX              
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS POPPING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FA...IN                
BEST AREA OF RUC INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.                      
ALL MODELS HAVE A DRYING OUT FOR WEDNESDAY. THEY HAVE BEEN SAYING               
THIS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS             
LOW. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A              
SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST. THIS IS STATUS QUO...SO NO PROBLEMS                   
BELIEVING THIS. UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHIFTS                      
WEST...LEAVING NO REAL MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR INITIATION. NO                    
DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INDICATED IN THE AVAILABLE SHORT               
TERM MODELS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 310-315K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS             
A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ALONG THE MISS. RIVER WEDNESDAY.  WITH               
LACK OF LOW LEVEL FEATURES INDICATED FOR LOW LEVEL PRECIPITATION                
INITIATION...WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TS/SHRA AT                 
MOST...SCATTERED CLOSER TO COAST SINCE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME              
SPILLOVER GULF BREEZE ACTION OCCURRING. TEMPS...WITH NGM GOING NEAR             
100 FOR HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND AVN ABOUT 5 DEGREES                     
COOLER...WILL GO WITH A BLEND SINCE FEEL THAT NGM IS A BIT TOO HIGH.            
IN THE EXTENDED CRYSTAL BALL...RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO                 
SHORTWAVE SWINGING DOWN THE EAST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE                  
EXTENDED. STILL A LACK OF DEFINITIVE CONVECTION INITIATORS...SO WILL            
GO A BIT BELOW CLIMO WITH POPS. TEMPS SOMEWHAT ABOVE.                           
QPF DISCUSSION:AGREE WITH THE MODELS THAT RIDGING/WARMING ALOFT WILL            
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS WITH TIME...LIMITING CONVECTION. NCEP IS ALONG            
THE SAME LINES WITH THEIR QPF...KEEPING THE ONE QUARTER INCH AREA               
SHUNTED TO THE FAR SOUTH. WILL GO WITH ZERO QPF.                                
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
16                                                                              
 ms                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1135 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
...HEAT ADVISORY REPOSTED FOR TODAY...                                          
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM INTO                        
LOW 90S.  BULLSEYE OF THETAE LOCATED OVR NW MO AND NEW RUC SHOWS LTL            
DISSIPATION OF SFC MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN.  HEAT INDICES              
ARE CLIMBING INTO 100 TO 105 RANGE ATTM.  FCST MAXES BY RUC                     
FOR NWRN PART OF CWA IN THE 94-97 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPTS                       
FCST TO RMN ARND 70...ETA A LTL COOLER BUT DEWPTS HIER.  THUS                   
XPCT HI TO RISE ABOVE HEAT ADVRY LVLS AGAIN TDA.  WL UPDATE                     
NWRN ZONES TO ACCT FOR HI.                                                      
WK BNDRY RMNS ACRS SRN PTN OF CWA.  QG FORCING IS WEAK...HOWEVER                
ISN LIFT PROGGED TO CTN THRU THE DAY. MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS                
MOVED EAST OF CWA BUT WITH DIURNAL HTG XPCT MORE -SHRA/-TSRA                    
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN MOISTURE-LADEN ATMO.  ETA KEEPS CAPES                   
IN THE 2500-4000 RANGE AND RUC PLACES INSTABILITY AXIS ALNG                     
BOONVILLE TO TARKIO LN THRU AFTN.  WL CTN CHC POPS AS PER PRVS                  
FCST THRU DAY.                                                                  
.EAX...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
SF                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KSGF 271537  mo                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...AM FOG...CHC OF PRECIP...HEAT                          
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BNDRY OVR NRN KS              
INTO CNTRL MO...WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY FM SE NEB TO SE IA.  HI              
DEWPOINTS...LO CLDS AND FOG WERE NOTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN ERN             
NEB AND SRN IA.  MONSOONAL FLO CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE FM W TX               
AND WRN KS...ACRS NRN KS INTO NRN MO.                                           
...FORECAST...                                                                  
UPR RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL U.S. RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND AMPLIFIES WITH            
TIME.  HTS RMN HI OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE PD...WITH NW FLOW              
FM THE DAKOTAS AND ERN NEB E THRU THE GRTLKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY.                                                                         
SNDINGS FM 00Z REVEALED THAT THE PW AT OAX HAD DROPPED TO 1.58                  
INCHES...DOWN FM 2.00 INCHES AT 12Z.  TOP/S SNDING STILL HAD 1.83               
INCHES PW.  LBF HAD AN INTERESTING SNDING WITH A DEWPOINT AROUND 760            
MB OF 15 DEG C.                                                                 
THE ETA SHOWS AN INCREASE IN H70 AND H85 RH BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...THEN             
SUPPRESSES THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACRS KS AND MO THRU WED.  AT H85              
SOME RETURN NOTED BY 00Z OVR CNTRL NEB.  THE AVN/NGM SOLUTIONS ARE              
SIMILAR...BUT NGM IS A BIT MORE MOIST AT H85 ALL OF FORECAST AREA               
TODAY.  ETA SOLUTION APPEARS RNSBL.                                             
WITH HI DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT SFC WNDS WILL MENTION AM FOG IN ALL BUT             
NRN ZONE.  IR AND 3.9 MICRON STLT SHOWING CLDS SKIRTING SRN NEB                 
WHERE HIGHER RH IF FCST THIS MORNING ALONG WITH UVV/WAA/QVECTOR                 
CONV.  ETA FCST SNDINGS HAVE A CAPE OF AROUND 4400 J/KG FOR 12Z AT              
FNB. WILL BRK OFF SRN ZONES AND INCLUDES POPS...WITH BEST CHC ERLY              
THIS AM.                                                                        
THE RUC HAS PICKED UP ON A SHRTWV THAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE H50                   
PROFILERS...BUT IS NOT REFLECTED IN ANY CLDS PER STLT.  THE RUC DOES            
GENERATE PRECIP FARTHER N WITH THIS FEATURE.  WEAK RIPPLES IN THE NW            
FLO DIFFICULT TO TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT ISO/20% TSRA.  WITH BETTER              
MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND BETTER DYNAMICS TO THE NORTH...ANY               
ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE.                                           
HOT PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK WITH FRONT APPROACHING              
AND LWRING HTS LATE FRI.                                                        
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
 ne                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR TODAY CONCERNS S/WV WHICH IS ENTERING NW NC                
THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC...AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE              
IN WV IMAGERY...BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTN. PER AREA                    
SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID-LEVEL                      
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. 3 DEGREE CAP ALSO EXISTS BUT THIS SHOULD WEAKEN              
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL COOLING FROM S/WV. THINK TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...              
BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. DUE TO TIMING...              
MAY HAVE TO CARRY OVER AN ISOLATED TSTM INTO THE EVENING.                       
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AFD...HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEPEND             
LARGELY ON AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND EXTENT OF ANY AFTN                       
CONVECTION. HOWEVER HEAT INDEX ALREADY APPROACHING 100 AT 10 AM SO              
WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY UP FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                      
CWF: SFC TROF IS ORIENTED ALONG THE COAST AT 13Z. WINDS AT THE BUOYS            
AND AT COASTAL SITES ARE WNW BUT SHOULD SHIFT SW LATE THIS AFTN AS              
TROF MOVES WWD. WILL LOWER SPEEDS N OF CAPE FEAR...MORE IN LINE WITH            
SC WATERS.                                                                      
.ILM...HEAT ADV FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                                 
MORGAN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 271343  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON THE MONEY. SAT IMAG THIS AM SHOWS             
NICE AREA OF SCT-BKN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE CSTL           
PLAIN W TO WRN VA. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH BRING POCKETS OF WEAK H5                
VORTICITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THIS            
AM WILL HANG ON INTO THE AFTN KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NW             
THRU NE. AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT MOVES INTO WRN NC LATER TODAY              
ANOTHER SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MOUNTAINS ALLOWING WINDS               
TO GRADUALLY BECMG SW LATE TDY AND INTO TNT. WITH PC TO OCCASIONALLY            
BKN CLOUD COVER TDY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH THE NLY FLOW...HEAT             
INDICES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE 105 MARK THOUGH               
THAT IS STILL RATHER HOT. DESPITE THE FACT THAT AN IMPULSE WILL BE              
MOVING OVR THE REGION TDY...WITH LACK OF MSTR ALOFT WE WILL BE LUCKY            
TO SEE ISOLD SHRA SO WILL CONT TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF FCST.                       
CSTL FCST ALSO ON TRACK...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                  
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
ORROCK                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KRAH 271336  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
930 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
CURRENT FCST BASED ON WEAK S/W AND ITS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING EAST            
OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOWING THE RETURN OF OUR EVER PRESENT               
HOT WEATHER. LATEST SAT PICS AND RUC VALIDATE THIS PREMISE.                     
THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE TO MID SHIFT WORK ANTICIPATED.                        
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
GL                                                                              
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 1999                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE: SVR THREAT IN NW FLOW REGIME...TNGT AND TMRW NGT.               
MODEL SELECTION: ETA INCOMPLETE. NGM/ETA FAIR ON UPR FEATURES AND               
INITIALIZING WELL ON WEAK VORT IN SERN SASK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...12Z RUC WAS BETTER. WILL USE NGM                     
PRIMARILY.                                                                      
NEAR TERM: MODELS WEAK ON HANDLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SURGE AHEAD             
OF SFC TROF...NOW ENTERING ERN ND. 18Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE                  
VALUES AROUND 4K WHILE ETA HAS AXIS OF 3-4K BAND BACK IN CNTRL SD.              
SFC DEWPTS APCHG 70 IN SERN ND WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR JMS. LOW             
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOW GOOD VEERING BLO H7. H5 ANALYSIS HAD                  
SEMBLANCE OF WEAK COUPLED JET OVR FGF CWFA BETWEEN NRN AND SRN                  
BRANCH FLOW. 50KTS AT H5 GENERALLY SUPPORTING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.            
WILL COORD WITH SPC ON LATE AFTERNOON SVR TSTM WATCH AREA. FAN TEMPS            
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEWPTS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT.                                 
MID TERM: PATTERN REPEATS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY                 
PUSHING INTO ERN ND AT MAX HEATING AND WK UPR WAVE IN NW FLOW                   
PATTERN. WILL STICK WITH WDLY SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ND ZONES. PM TSTMS            
IN MN ZONES.                                                                    
EXTENDED: LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE                    
REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH             
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS            
OVER MT AND WRN ND AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM                  
CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES AREA. ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA.             
CWFA THEN REMAINS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR REST OF EXTENDED                    
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF CWFA ON COLD SIDE OF                      
RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD AROUND NORMALS.                                    
.FGF...TOR WATCH #591 UNTIL 7PM CDT...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN.             
GUST/GODON                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 271533  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1015 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
FCST CHALLENGE: WHERE WILL CONVECTION FIRE THIS AFTERNOON?                      
WILL UPDATE PACKAGE TO RAISE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST ZONES            
EXCEPT NW MN WHERE CLD COVER IS SLOWING HEATING CURVE A BIT. TEMPS              
AND DEWPTS ARE SURGING NICELY ALG A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO ERN ND              
AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN WRN ND. OTHERWISE CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD ON             
TREATMENT OF TSTM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. 12Z             
RUC VERIFYING WELL AGAINST MSAS LOW LEVEL STABILITY INDICATORS...AND            
HAS SFC TROUGH AND THETAE RIDGE ALG NRN RRV THROUGH SERN ND AT 00Z              
TO PROVIDE GOOD FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. AM SUSPECT THAT                
ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING AND ADDN MID LEVEL MOISTURE INDICATED BY               
NEW FOUS DATA COULD WEAKEN CAP STRENGTH OVER NERN ND LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE FOR EARLIER CONVECTION KICK. WILL STICK WITH              
CURRENT PACKAGE TIMING AND MOINTOR SITUATION CLOSELY.                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 271044 AMD  nd                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
920 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...I GUESS             
WE WILL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET. SFC HI PRES PROGGED TO PASS E OF FCST             
AREA WED MORN SO BACK INTO THE SW FLOW SO WILL ADD THOSE FEW DEGREES            
BACK. WL BE ABLE TO GO WITH A LIGHT WIND OVNGT AS DIRECTION SHIFTS              
FM WNW TO LIGHT SW. WL CHANGE P CLOUDY OVNGT TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND LOWER          
MIN FCST INLAND NW PA WHERE DEWPOINTS DOWN AROUND 60 ALREADY. LARGE             
MCS OVR MN THIS EVENING AND IT SEEMS A LITTLE AHEAD OF MODEL FCSTS.             
RUC SEEMS MOST NEAR TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING. ALL MODELS AGREE            
THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER AND                 
REGENRATE SE TNGT AND THEN AGN WED OVR WI. LOW LVL TEMP/DEWPOINT AND            
STABILITY GRADIENTS WOULD SUGGEST A PATH SSE ACRS MIDWEST AND LWR OH            
VLY...MAINLY ACRS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...WEST OF FCST AREA. ASSCD               
S/WV WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE ATMOSPHERE OVR ENTIRE LWR GRTLKS LATE              
WED AFTRN AND NGT SO A BIT OF CONVECTION CUD DVLP UNLESS MCS TO OUR             
WEST GENERATES ENUF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE TO SQUASH ACTIVITY. WL              
CONT WITH CURRENT FCST OF CHC TSTORMS LATER WED NW OHIO AND THEN ALL            
OF N OH/NW PA WED NGT. WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH 30 POPS WED             
NGT INSTEAD OF 40/50 POP NOW IN FCST BUT WILL NOT CHANGE 3RD PERIOD             
OF FCST WITH NO NEW MODEL DATA. NO OTHER CHANGES. OZFCLE AVBL.                  
.CLE...NONE.                                                                    
KOSARIK                                                                         
...UPDATED TO INCLUDE CHANGES TO OVNGT FCST.                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCLE 280111  oh                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:                                                          
TEMPERATURES                                                                    
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION?                                                       
SHORT TERM:  DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AR HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING            
W TOWARDS ERN CWA...BEING ASSISTED BY WEAK ERLY WAVE. 18Z RUC TRIES             
TO BRING PCPN INTO NW AR THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAK WAVE AND DECENT             
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP FIELD                 
LOOKS OVERDONE.  ISOLATED POPS MAY BE REQUIRED IN FCST FOR NW AR FOR            
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CLOSE TO ISSUANCE TO                
DECIDE.  HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH WED FOR TUL METRO.                
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MEET CRITERIA              
IN THE IMMEDIATE TUL AREA...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE ADVISORY.                
HEAT ADV WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM FOR REMAINDER OF CWA AS OVERNIGHT              
LOWS WILL NOT BE ABV 80F.  DAYTIME HEAT INDICES HOWEVER WILL                    
CONTINUE TO BE APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS OVER REMAINDER OF CWA.              
LONG TERM:  AFTER TONIGHT...BEST FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HOT AND DRY.              
ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY               
MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.  WITH RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE OVHD LACK             
OF ANY SURFACE FEATURES...AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP ALL ZONES DRY            
THROUGH SAT. TEMPS WILL BE HOT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH               
MOST LOCATIONS GOING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK.  MAY BE FLIRTING WITH              
HEAT ADV CRITERIA OVER MORE OF THE AREA WED AND THU...BUT WILL LEAVE            
THINGS AS IS ATTM.  TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REFLECT MOS/FAN VALUES               
WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                                         
EXTENDED: MRF TRIES TO FLATTEN RIDGE BRING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO SRN               
PLAINS BY SAT.  IT ALSO BRINGS CDFNT DOWN INTO KS AND CLOSE TO OK               
BORDER LATE SAT AND SUN...SO WILL KEEP CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND KEEP               
SLIGHT CHC SUN MOST AREAS.  HOWEVER...SRN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY               
WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS FURTHER S.                                          
MANNING                                                                         
FCSTID = 24                                                                     
TUL   81 102  81 103 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FSM   78 100  78  99 /   0   0   0   5                                          
MLC   74 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   5                                          
BVO   75 103  75 103 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FYV   72  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   5                                          
BYV   71  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   5                                          
MIO   75 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MKO   75 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   5                                          
F10   75 101  75 101 /   0   0   0   5                                          
HHW   74  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   5                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ060.                      
--------------------                                                            
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:                                                            
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE                                 
NGM CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
FCST CONFIDENCE: 9 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 271932  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1010 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A VORT MAX S OF TXK EMBEDDED IN SRN END OF AN              
ERLY WAVE MOVING THROUGH AR THIS AM. THESE FEATURES ALSO SHOW UP                
NICELY IN THE 12Z UPA ANALYSIS BUT NOT WELL RESOLVED BY THE MODELS.             
THIS VORT MAX/WAVE COMBINATION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR              
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA ACROSS ERN AND SRN SECTIONS              
OF CWFA THIS AFTN.                                                              
HAVE ONLY UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM PREV FCST. 12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS            
ALSO SHOW LOCATIONS IN NW AR HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT                
THIS PM. WILL LEAVE TEMP FCST MOSTLY AS IS.                                     
OK MESONET SHOWS ALL LOCATIONS IN CWFA FELL BELOW 80 DEGREES THIS               
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUL AT 81 DEGREES.  KRVS ON S SIDE             
OF TOWN FELL TO LOW 70S.  FEEL THAT THIS IS LOCALIZED TO THE                    
IMMEDIATE TUL METRO...SO WILL OPT NOT TO ISSUE HEAT ADV ATTM.  WILL             
REISSUE DANGEROUS HEAT SPS LATER THIS AM.                                       
MANNING                                                                         
FCSTID = 24                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 270912  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
408 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:                                                          
POPS                                                                            
TEMPERATURES                                                                    
BAND OF MID CLOUDS IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 315K                       
HAVE MADE IT INTO NW ZONES WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO                       
IN OSAGE COUNTY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG/AHEAD OF                         
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE                        
MOVING SE THRU E KS AND INTO MO. OTHER INTERESTING FEATURE                      
IS EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...BEST DEPICTED                   
IN 200 MB WIND FIELD/DIVERGENCE BY 03Z ETA. ETA HITS PRECIP                     
HARD WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING PRECIP FROM N LA NORTHWARD                    
THRU E ZONES AND MERGES WITH KS PRECIP. RUC ALSO SHOWS                          
SOME PRECIP IN NE ZONES THIS MORNING. ETA LIKELY OVERDOING                      
AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH MAIN LIFT ABOVE 500 MB MAINLY EARLY THIS                  
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE SW ZONES HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE AT SEEING                    
PRECIP...BUT AFTERNOON HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHEST THERE                      
BRINGING THREAT FOR A STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL                         
SPREAD 10-20% POPS AREAWIDE TODAY. MID/HI CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY                   
LOWER THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP MAXES A DEG OR TWO BELOW YESTERDAY.                 
ETA'S 21Z SFC TEMPS IN 80S SURE LOOK NICE BUT DON'T THINK                       
WE WILL BE THAT LUCKY.                                                          
REST OF FCST WILL BE LEFT DRY AND HOT...BUT MRF SHOWS SERIES OF                 
WAVES IN NORTHERN STREAM FLATTENING RIDGE FROM SUNDAY THRU                      
NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME COOLING AND CHC FOR PRECIP.                   
GUID TEMPS IN LATER PERIODS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. DAYTIME HEAT                      
INDICIES WILL BE IN DANGER CATEGORY BUT WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS                     
EXPECTED IN 70S WILL NOT MEET ADVISORY CRIT. WILL REISSUE                       
HEAT DANGER SPS.                                                                
FCSTID = 13                                                                     
TUL   98  79  99  75 /   5  10  10   0                                          
FSM   96  74  98  75 /  10  10  10   0                                          
MLC   98  75  98  75 /   5  10  10   0                                          
BVO   98  76  98  75 /  10   0  10   0                                          
FYV   95  73  96  75 /  20  10  10   0                                          
BYV   95  73  96  75 /  20  10  10   0                                          
MIO   95  76  97  75 /  20  10  10   0                                          
MKO   98  79  99  75 /   5  10  10   0                                          
F10   98  79  99  75 /   5  10  10   0                                          
HHW   98  75  98  75 /   5  10  10   0                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
--------------------                                                            
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:                                                            
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE                                 
NGM CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
ETA CONFIDENCE:  5 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 270857  ok                                      

NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR                                            
900 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
MODELS LATE.                                                                    
00Z SLE SOUNDING UNSTABLE ABOVE 700 MB BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR              
CONVECTION. A WEAK BATCH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON PERIPHERY OF                  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROTATING N THROUGH W OREGON THIS EVENING HAS A               
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS...AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE...BUT           
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST...AMENDING IF NEEDED. OFFSHORE UPPER LOW           
SLOWLY MOVING W OF 130W AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN                   
OFFSHORE IN NEAR TERM. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON               
TSTMS WED IN CASCADES AS RUC IMPLIES SOME INTERIOR MID LEVEL MOISTURE           
MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO AREA.                                               
COASTAL MARINE CLOUDS VERY PERSISTENT TODAY WITH KOTH REPORTING 1600            
FT TOPS. ONSHORE GRADIENTS A BIT STRONGER THAN MON AND MAY SEE A                
LITTLE EARLY MORNING INTRUSION INTO INTERIOR VALLEY. 12Z MODELS                 
IMPLIED STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THU MORNING AS WEAK UPPER TROUGH                  
BRUSHES NW WA...WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR THU MORNING BUT             
HAVE SOME DOUBTS. WILLIS                                                        
AST --1  PDX 000  SLE 000  EUG 000                                              
.PDX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KMFR 280354  or                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVY CODE FORMAT                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
WK SFC TROF WAS NOTED ON PRES ANAL THIS EVE FM NE GA THRU THE                   
MIDLANDS OF SC...TO AROUND THE N CST OF SC. A LEFTOVER BUT POORLY               
DEFINED S/WV IS CURRENTLY MOVG THRU THE CAROLINAS BUT CONVECTION IS             
WEAKENING QUICKLY THIS EVE AS SUN SETS. GOOD THETA-E ALG CST...BUT              
NOT MUCH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE MID 90S              
THIS AFT...BLV AS TEMPS COOL THRU THE EVE...PCPN WL GRADUALLY                   
DISSIPATE. MAY LEAVE A 20 POP IN TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT FOR BERKELEY...            
DORCHESTER AND NRN COLLETON CTYS...BUY WL DECIDE B4 ISSUANCE BASED ON           
LTST RADAR. IR SATLT SHOWING A FAIR AMT OF MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLDS TO           
MOVE THRU THE AREA OVN...WL GO WITH P/CLOUDY WORDING. TEMPS/WIND                
LOOK FINE.                                                                      
CWF...MAINLY JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTION INITIALIZATION            
AS FLOW IS MAINLY SW ON LATEST MARINE OBS. SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER             
NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT 15 KT                   
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS AND RUC 21Z PROG...WILL LIKELY GO           
WITH SPEEDS FROM 10 TO 15 KT.                                                   
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
TJR/RVT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 280047  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
234 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE IMPULSES CROSSING REGION.               
IMPULSE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING S AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES AND                
W ATLANTIC TROF DIGS. RUC SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN AREA LATE               
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TO ADVECT AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO REGION               
...AND AIR MASS TO CONTINUE DESTABILIZING. WILL PUT POPS IN ENTIRE              
AREA FOR WHOLE PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS MOST FAVORED               
TIMING...CANNOT RULE OUT LATE NIGHT OR MORNING CONVECTION AS                    
SYSTEMS ARRIVE FROM OH VALLEY. MAX TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AS                  
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL PARTIALLY OFFSET DONWSLOPE COMPONENT. MINIMUMS              
TO MOVE UPWARD AS MOISTURE INCREASES.                                           
AVL 65/89/66/88 6555                                                            
CLT 70/94/71/93 4444                                                            
GSP 71/95/71/94 5444                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 271735  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
135 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
CURRENT CONVECTION MOVING ON A MORE S TRACK TOWARD SC UPSTATE                   
AND NEW CELLS DEVELOPING LAURENS CO. RUC SHOWS INCREASED MOISTURE               
CONVEERGENCE BETWEEN TN LINE AND I-85. WILL UPDATE TO CAPTURE                   
TRENDS.                                                                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 271710  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1152 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
GSO SOUNDING UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH CAPE AROUND 3000 AND PW                  
1.48. RUC SHOWS AREA IN WAKE OF MAIN IMPULSE THIS AFTERNOON                     
WITH A MINOR IMPULSE REACHING MOUNTAINS LATE THSI AFTERNOON.                    
SHOWERS NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAIN IMPULSE IN N TIER                    
NC...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD JUST BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME                 
AS MOISTURE SPOOLS AROUND UPPER RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN                    
MOUNATAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS. WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO CONTINUE                    
TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN MITIGATING                 
FACTOR FOR MAXIMUMS WILL BE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ACTIVITY IN                  
OH VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST MAXIMUMS APPEAR IN ORDER. GUSTY                     
WINDS MIXED DOWN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH SIMILAR HEATING                 
AND LWO LEVEL WINDS...WILL BOOST SURFACE VELOCITIES A BIT.                      
UPDATE: ALTHOUGH CONVECTION DECELERATING RAPIDLY OFF BLUE RIDGE...              
IT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO NC PIEDMONT. WILL EXPAND POP W                  
TOWARD I-77 CORRIDOR.                                                           
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 271430  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1025 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
RUC SHOWING WK S/WV JUST BRUSHING THE NRN SXNS AND WL GO WITH PC SKIES          
THERE AND CONT MS ELSEWHERE. ATTM WL NOT PUT PCPN IN THE NRN SXNS AS ETA        
CLT SNDNG HAS CAP AND IF PCPN DVLPS WL UPDATE. OTRW NO CHGS TO CUR FCST         
AS TEMPS TO CONT NEAR 100 WITH HEAT ADVISORY.                                   
.CAE...HEAT ADVY TDA SCZ015>016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                
CDL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 271418  sc                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
743 PM CDT MON JUL 26 1999                                                      
SHOWERS NEARLY SPENT AS OF TYPING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE IN            
THE ISSUING OF EVENING PACKAGES...IE REMOVE POPS INLAND...REWORD                
POPS ON THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. INDICATIONS ARE FROM LATEST RUC               
/NGM THAT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY.  VERY            
WEAK DIFFLUENCE AS TUTT GETS CLOSER TO CENTRAL GULF ALONG WITH A                
VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WELL. PW FORECAST TO INCREASE TO              
ALMOST 2" PER RUC2 AT 18Z...ETA DRIER BUT 12Z RUNS RECENTLY HAVE NOT            
BEEN VERIFYING AS WELL AS THE 00Z RUNS WHEN IT COMES TO PW. HEAT                
INDICIES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 103 TO 109 RANGE FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. COASTAL WATERS REMAINING TRANQUIL WITH SOUTH              
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.                                                  
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
<45.37.BT>                                                                      
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 074/098 074/098 074 022                                                  
IAH BB 074/097 074/097 074 -22                                                  
GLS BB 080/090 080/090 080 232                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 272208 AMD  tx                                  

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
910 AM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC AND MESOETA SHOW LARGE AREA OF NVA OVER THE AREA THIS                
AFTERNOON.  THIS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD HELP             
TO SQUANDER ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS                   
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN               
COUNTIES.  THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAYS             
EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE LI.  QUITE A BIT OF CU VISIBLE ON SATELLITE            
LOOP ALREADY SO MAY DECIDE TO INPUT SOME WORDING OF PARTLY CLOUDY.              
WITH THE 26 KNOTS FOUND IN THE LOWEST THOUSAND FEET OVER BRO THIS               
MORNING...WILL KEEP THE SCEC FOR THE BAY.  LATEST MODELS SHOW 10 TO             
15 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND THIS GOES IN LINE WITH CURRENT 42020 READINGS             
OFFSHORE.  WILL DROP SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND TWEEK WINDS               
DOWN A BIT.                                                                     
63                                                                              
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 271417  tx                                      

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
250 AM MST WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THE               
NEXT FEW DAYS. WEATHER DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE                
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME. AN UPSWING IN STORM                
ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR                     
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY               
SKIES WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
KIWA RADAR SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT THUNDERSHOWERS MOVING                        
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE...KYUX              
RADAR SHOWING MORE ISOLATED BUT STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN                 
CALIFORNIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARIZONA MOVING SOUTHWARD. IR IMAGERY           
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA INTO SOUTHEAST           
CALIFORNIA. WATER VAPOR SHOWING CURRENT EASTERLY WAVE MOVING ACROSS             
MAINLY SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH UPSTREAM NEAR              
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION             
NEAR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.                                              
REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING CHANGE TOWARD EASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM            
24 HOURS BEFORE. MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED IN SPEED THEREBY           
AIDING IN THE STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF STORMS. OTHERWISE THERE DON'T           
APPEAR TO BE ANY DRAMATIC CHANGES IN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM            
24 HOURS BEFORE...MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE DYNAMICAL INFLUENCE OF THESE           
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. 00Z PLOT DATA SHOWING AREAS OF DIFFLUENCE OVER             
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...BOTH OF THESE                
AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT 2 AM. THERE ALSO                
APPEARS TO BE A NEW HIGH CELL DEVELOPING AT 500 MB OVER THE GREAT               
BASIN.                                                                          
AS FAR AS THE PROGS GO...NOT MUCH TO SAY DUE TO NCEP COMPUTER                   
PROBLEMS. THE ONLY 00Z RUNS THAT MADE IT ARE THE RUC AND NGM. NO MRF            
EITHER. NGM SHOWS VORTICITY MAXIMA OF VARYING STRENGTHS CENTERED NEAR           
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER ALL THE WAY THROUGH ITS RUN. THIS PROBABLY             
DUE TO AN INABILITY TO RESOLVE DISTINCT SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE              
AREA. IT ALSO HINTS AT ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARIZONA ON              
THURSDAY. 850 AND 700 MB DEW POINTS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO HIGH.            
IT FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN 700 MB DEW POINTS FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA             
AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO               
TWEAK THE WORDING AND POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TODAY AND                 
TONIGHT FOR SOME OF THE CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES.             
JAMISON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 280918  az                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
313 AM MDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
OF THE OOZ MODELS AVAILABLE TONIGHT...THE NGM IS THE OBVIOUS MODEL              
MODEL OF CHOICE...I.E. ITS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE. IT CONTINUES THE             
TREND IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS OF CONTINUING MONSOON FLOW INTO COLORODO            
FROM A PLUME THAT WILL MOVE TO W/C AZ TODAY THEN CURVE BACK OVER SRN            
UT AND WRN CO. MINOR VORT MAXES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA             
THIS MORNING...ONLY RESOLVED BY RUC BUT POSITIONED POORLY. WV                   
SATELLITE SHOWS A BIT OF DRIER AIR FLOWING FROM THE EAST INTO MONSOON           
PLUME AND SPREADING SLOWLY W AND N. NGM SHOWS THIS A LOWER PW VALUES            
THIS MORNING THAT QUICKLY REBOUND BACK TO .90 IN THIS AFTERNOON.                
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PERSISTENCE FCST THRU THURSDAY: SCTD TSTMS IN THE            
VALLEY...NUMEROUS MOST MTNS...WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. EXPECT             
CONVECTION TO START FIRST IN CLEARER AREAS. NO SGFNT CHANGES SEEN IN            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.   CUOCO                                                    
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A HIGHER LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO                    
LOCAL HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.                                
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 280911  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1015 PM EDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT ARE PROGRESS OF PRECIP INTO                    
FORECAST AREA AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                     
BAND OF MOISTURE/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM WARM                           
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SPILLING SE INTO UP/NORTHERN LAKE                  
MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY               
AIRMASS OVER FA. 0Z KAPX SOUNDING SHOWED A MARKED DRY LAYER BELOW               
700 MB...SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIP WILL INITIALLY EVAPORATE ALOFT.            
HOWEVER...EXPECT LOW LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE                  
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND OVERNIGHT.                               
CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS SHRA WILL FIRST SPREAD INTO             
UP AND NORTHERN 1/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS             
FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN ARE PUSHING SE TOWARD IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY             
AND WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT OUR PRECIP              
TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO REGION FROM NW. QUESTION IS HOW FAR S/E                
WILL DEEP MOISTURE PROGRESS BEFORE MORNING. 18Z MESOETA AND 21Z RUC             
ONLY DEPICT PRECIP INTO N/NW COUNTIES OF FA BEFORE 12Z...SUGGESTING             
THAT CURRENT POPS ACROSS THE S/SW ARE TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...MODEL QPF             
SUGGESTED THAT ALL MEASUREABLE PRECIP WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH                  
THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING INVOF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS                  
SOLUTION IGNORES NW/SE BAND OF PRECIP ALREADY PUSHING INTO AREA.                
EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY HOLDING OFF PRECIP...                
LATEST MESOETA/RUC SOLUTIONS APPEAR TOO SLOW. THUS...WILL KEEP POPS             
IN FORECAST AS FAR SOUTH AS MBL TO HTL IN THE WEST...AND WILL ADD               
POPS TO PRESQUE ISLE-APN-ALCONA GROUP. FURTHER...WILL BUMP POPS UP              
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE UP AND UP TO 50 PERCENT PLN/GAYLORD VCNTY. WILL            
ONLY KEEP FAR SE...GLADWIN/ARENAC GROUP...DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE THROUGH TONIGHT.                        
HOWEVER...EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE AS WARM                       
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD INTO REGION...SO WILL CONTINUE                 
MENTION OF THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH 12Z.                  
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPS OVERNIGHT.                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 280216  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
305 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
...FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE MINIMAL THREAT OF PCPN AND AFTN HIGH          
TEMPS THRU FCST PD...                                                           
0700 UTC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED VRY WK PRES GRAD OVR WRN AND N CNTRL            
NEB WITH NO DISCERNABLE SFC FEATURES OTHER THAN WK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY             
BCMG DIFFUSE NR VTN AND SFC TROF OVR SRN SD.  UPR RDG RMNS JUST TO S OF         
AREA...WITH LTL MVMNT EXPECTED TIL LTE THU WHEN RDG FCST TO WEAKEN              
SOMEWHAT AND SHFT SLGTLY TWD SW.                                                
DESPITE HIGH CAPES AND LOW CIN DURG PK HTG CYCLE...LTL TO FOCUS                 
CONVECT ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO THU AFTN WITH SFC FNT WELL TO N OF LBF          
CWA.  OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVR N CNTRL NEB VRY SHLW AND SHD DISSIPATE           
BY THIS AFTN.  ONLY CONCERN WUD THEREFORE BE WEAKNESS IN AREA OF                
SUBSIDENCE IN VCNTY OF UPR RDG WHERE SCT +TSRA HAS DVLPD PST COUPLE OF          
DAYS OVR WRN KS INTO E CNTRL CO.  BOTH NGM AND RUC PICKING UP ON WK             
VORT MAX SCOOTING ARND PERIPHERY OF UPR RDG...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD        
INTO WRN NEB THIS AFTN...AND THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THU.  SCT                
CONVECTION STILL IN PROGRESS WITH THIS FEATURE NW OF GLD.                       
THREAT HI ENF TO INTRODUCE MINIMAL THREAT OF TSRA IN SWRN NEB TDA...AND         
KP RMNDR OF FCST AREA DRY ASSUMING THAT ANY OTHER PCPN WL BE ISOLD AT           
BEST.  WL MAINTAIN DRY FCST...EVN IN SWRN NEB...FOR THU CONSIDERING             
UNCERTAINTY OF IMPACT OF WK SHRT WV AND LACK OF ADTNL GUIDANCE TO HELP          
BTR DEFINE LTE PD THREAT.                                                       
AFTN TEMPS TDA SHD BE SLGTLY HIR THAN THOSE OF YSTDY WITH FEWER ERY             
MRNG CLDS AND FOG TO OFFSET ERY INSOLATION...AND WITH LESS UPSLOPE              
COMPONENT TO SFC WND.  TEMPS ON THU SHD BE SIM TO THOSE OF TDA...AND WL         
GO SLGTLY ABV FWC GUID WHICH MAY BE OVERESTIMATING RETREAT OF UPR RDG           
AND REFLECTING THIS IN COOLER AFTN HIGHS IN 3RD PD.                             
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
WERT                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 280732  ne                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
215 PM CDT WED JUL 27 1999                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE: SVR THREAT IN NW FLOW REGIME...TNGT AND TMRW NGT.               
MODEL SELECTION: ETA INCOMPLETE. NGM/ETA FAIR ON UPR FEATURES AND               
INITIALIZING WELL ON WEAK VORT IN SERN SASK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
FIELDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAK...12Z RUC WAS BETTER. WILL USE NGM                     
PRIMARILY.                                                                      
NEAR TERM: MODELS WEAK ON HANDLING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SURGE AHEAD             
OF SFC TROF...NOW ENTERING ERN ND. 18Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE                  
VALUES AROUND 4K WHILE ETA HAS AXIS OF 3-4K BAND BACK IN CNTRL SD.              
SFC DEWPTS APCHG 70 IN SERN ND WITH CONVECTION FIRING NEAR JMS. LOW             
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOW GOOD VEERING BLO H7. H5 ANALYSIS HAD                  
SEMBLANCE OF WEAK COUPLED JET OVR FGF CWFA BETWEEN NRN AND SRN                  
BRANCH FLOW. 50KTS AT H5 GENERALLY SUPPORTING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.            
WILL COORD WITH SPC ON LATE AFTERNOON SVR TSTM WATCH AREA. FAN TEMPS            
LOOK REASONABLE AS DEWPTS SHOULD STAY UP A BIT.                                 
MID TERM: PATTERN REPEATS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK SFC BOUNDARY                 
PUSHING INTO ERN ND AT MAX HEATING AND WK UPR WAVE IN NW FLOW                   
PATTERN. WILL STICK WITH WDLY SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS ND ZONES. PM TSTMS            
IN MN ZONES.                                                                    
EXTENDED: LONG RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE                    
REDEVELOPMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH             
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS            
OVER MT AND WRN ND AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH FROM                  
CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES AREA. ONLY CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS ON                   
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWFA.             
CWFA THEN REMAINS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS FOR REST OF EXTENDED                    
FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE MAJORITY OF CWFA ON COLD SIDE OF                      
RIDGE...EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD AROUND NORMALS.                                    
.FGF...TOR WATCH #591 UNTIL 7PM CDT...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN.             
GUST/GODON                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 271533  nd                                      

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
235 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
CLEAR AND MILD OVERNIGHT...THE PATTERN MARCHES ON. WE HAD QUITE A               
BIT OF MORNING CLOUDS TUESDAY...AND STILL MANAGED 90 OR ABOVE IN MANY           
LOCATIONS. ANOTHER PRETTY HOT DAY SHUD BE ON TAP WITH LITTLE IN THE             
WAY OF CLOUDS TO MAR HEATING UNTIL LATER TODAY.                                 
GUIDANCE IS SLOW TO TRICKLE IN BUT STAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE SET FOR              
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND               
TONIGHT. PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD                
CLUE WHERE THE PRECIP IS FALLING AT THE MOMENT. THE RUC AND NGM SEEM            
TO HAVE "BEST" HANDLE ON UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION. RUC HAS SOME IDEA            
THAT MCS IS FIRING OVER IL...BUT HAS HUGE AREA OF LIGHT QPF ASSOC.              
OTHER ERRORS IN PLACEMENT ABOUND. SO WITH THAT IN MIND...ENSUING                
DEVELOPMENTS WILL POSE BIG CHALLENGE FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.               
NGM/ETA SHOW SHORTWAVE NEARING REGION BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. OLD MESO ETA AND 12Z ETA BOTH HINT AT WHAT LOOKS LIKE IT               
CUD BE BOW ECHO FEATURE RACING SE ACROSS THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY               
VIRILE LOOKING JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY BY                   
00-06Z. 12Z ETA AND MESO ETA GENERATE IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIVERGENCE               
ASSOC WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A FORM OF A COUPLED UPPER JET STREAK.                
HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE PAIRED UP JETS OR IF MODELS ARE            
JUST MUDDYING UP THE EXIT OF THE POTENT MIDWEST JET STREAK DUE TO               
CONVECTION. EITHER WAY THE DYNAMICS FOR MID SUMMER LOOK IMPRESSIVE.             
WIND FIELDS WILL EASILY SUPPORT SEVERE SHUD ANY KIND OF SQUALL LINE             
FORM.                                                                           
SHUD HAVE ANOTHER FAIRLY EASY TIME OF KICKING THE STUFFING OUT OF               
MOS OVER THE LOWER SUSQ TODAY. HOT AND DUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WHICH          
HAS BEEN MISLEADING MOS BY AN AVERAGE OF 5 DEG AT HARRISBURG FOR                
ABOUT A WEEK NOW. IN FACT WE ARE ON TAP TO END UP WITH THE HOTTEST              
JULY ON RECORD AT MDT...UNLESS ICE AGE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE               
LAST FEW DAYS OF THE MONTH.                                                     
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
LA CORTE                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KPBZ 280626  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
215 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
NO RECENT RUC OR ETA TO LOOK AT TONIGHT...SO FORECAST IS BASED ON               
OBSERVED DATA AND NGM PROG. WV LOOP SHOWS WELL THE VARIOUS WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES LINED UP IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE UPPER PLAINS            
TO THE SOTUHEAST. THESE WILL BE THE MAIN TROUBLE MAKERS THE NEXT 48             
HOURS. CURRENTLY...THE SKY OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST             
GEORGIA IS VOID OF MID/UPR LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. SO...TEMPS WILL             
GET OFF TO A RAPID START THIS MORNING.                                          
WE HAD CATEGORICAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER/TSRA ACTIVITY TUESDAY IN THE              
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ELSEHWERE. THIS HAPPENED             
WITH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAN WE HAVE FOR TODAY. 00Z UPR AIR              
CHARTS SHOW SEVERAL WEAK THERMAL TROUGHS IN THE MID-LEVELS HEADED               
TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIAN REGION. NGM SHOWS THESE WEAK THRRMAL                 
TROUGHS CONCURRENT WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION TO AFFECT THE REGION                
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTN. DECENT 850                    
MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MTNS AND                      
FOOTHILLS. WILL UP POPS TO CATERGORICAL IN MTNS TODAY AND LIKELY                
THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...WILL TAPER POPS FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHC                  
SOUTHWEST. CHC POPS TONIGHT EVERYWHERE. SINCE IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH              
TO SET CONVECTION OFF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO                  
ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING...MAINLY FOR MTNS AND NRN FOOTHILLS/PIED OF NC...WHERE                  
COOLEST MID-LEVELS WILL BE.                                                     
ALTHOUGH THE 850 MOIST ADVECTION PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY...A                
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AND DRIER AIR SURGES             
IN AT MID-LEVELS...WHICH COULD BE DANGEROUS. HOWEVER...AT THIS                  
POINT...WITH LACK OF MODEL DATA TO LOOK AT...WILL DEFER ANY CHANGES             
TO POPS OUTSIDE OF MTNS THURSDAY TO LATER SHIFTS.                               
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN HOT AS 850 THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA             
THROUGH THRUSDAY. BUT WITH CLOUDS DEVELOPING QUICKER DURING THE                 
DAY...EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO STAY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.            
BUT WILL HEADLINE PIEDMONT ZONES WITH A NEAR CRITERIA STATEMENT.                
AVL 89/67/89 846                                                                
CLT 95/72/96 644                                                                
GSP 96/73/97 644                                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 280614  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 1999                                                     
WL PULL OUT MENTN OF SVR FOR TNT AS RUC SHWS JET DIVERGENCE AREA OF JET         
TO REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF AREA.  WL CONT CHC FOR TNT WITH BETTER POPS ACRS        
THE NORTH SINCE DLH RADAR SHOWG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE ARROWHEAD RGN.           
THERE IS A SOUTHWEST MOVEMTN AND MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF NC AND NE WI            
OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO WEAK H8 WAA WAA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN           
SFC DPTS.  ANALYSIS OF SFC SHWS A WEAK TROF OVER MN WITH A SUBTLE WARM          
FRONT OVER NW WI.  AIR MASS STRUGGLING TO SAT OVER WI..BUT IS SAT NORTH         
OF WI IN COOLER H7 AIR.  WV LOOP SHOWS DRY INTRUSION NOW INTO C WI AND          
WL CONT TO MOVE TWD EC WI OVERNIGHT.  ANOTHER REASON FOR KEEPING SMALL          
CHC IN ZONES IS THAT THE 00Z RUC RUN STILL DRAGS A VORT INTO NRN WI             
LATER TNT.  WV DOES SHOW A PSBL WEAK VORT OVER ND...BUT DOES NOT SIG AT         
THIS TIME.  MODEL DATA NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS UPDATE DUE TO COMPUTER            
PROBLEMS.                                                                       
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
HELMAN                                                                          
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 280222  wi                                      

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
900 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE             
WEEKEND WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND                   
PLAINS. WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE HUMIDITY OVER THE               
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE                    
COAST...NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES                
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS HUMIDITY             
INCREASES...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST.                         
SAT LOOPS AND RADAR SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED                
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE MTNS OF SAN             
DIEGO CNTY. KNKX RAOB HAS NOT SHOWN ANY 12 HR INCREASE IN PW AND                
EASTERLY FLOW IS ANEMIC AT BEST. FARTHER EAST...K1Y7 SHOWS PW AT                
1.85 AND AN LI OF -10.3. HERE ALSO...EASTERLY FLOW IS ALMOST                    
NONEXISTENT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING TO THE              
LOWER DESERTS BUT HAVE INCREASED TO THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHTNING DATA             
SHOWS A FEW WEAK STORMS OVER WESTERN AZ ON THE DECREASE.                        
NEW MODEL DATA COMING IN LATE. ETA ALMOST IN A AND SHOWS LITTLE                 
CHANGE. MSO ETA NEVER POSTED LAST NIGHT. 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS WEAK               
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN AZ MOVING SLOWLY NW...BUT STILL EAST OF YUMA BY              
00Z. RH ACTUALLY DECREASES OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND BECOMES                
MORE CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER               
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                          
MARINE LAYER DEEPENED TO AROUND 2.5K FT OVER SAN CNTY...LOWERING TO             
AROUND 2K FEET OVER ORANGE CNTY. PATCHY DRIZZLE HAS BEEN REPORTED.              
BASED ON PIREPS/OBS LOOKS LIKE STRATUS LAYER IS ABOUT 1K FT THICK               
AND WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF AGAIN OVER COASTAL SAN DIEGO CNTY.                 
CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK BUT WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD WINDS TO THE UPPER             
DESERTS AND TO BROAD-BRUSH SHOWER/TS CHANCES SINCE WE HAVE ALREADY              
SEEN SOME ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.                                                
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
JAD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KLOX 281556  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
849 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
A FRESH PUSH OF MARINE AIR ENTERED THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH KOAK               
12Z SOUNDING SHOWING A DEPTH NEAR 2500 FEET. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW            
WILL KEEP OUR MAXS BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM                   
YESTERDAY. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRISK BUT            
THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MIDDAY AND THEN INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY EARLY               
EVENING.                                                                        
PERSISTENT BANDS OF ALTOCUMULUS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERLY MID            
LEVEL FLOW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF AC MOVING NORTH                
WITHIN THE VALLEY FROM JUST WEST OF MERCED TO CHICO. LIKE YESTERDAY THIS        
HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT OVER MOST MAJOR CITIES. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE                 
ENHANCING IN AREA OF WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING               
CLOSED LOW NEAR                                                                 
132W. AT THIS TIME OUR CWA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL                    
MOISTURE PLUME WHICH IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY               
EASTWARD. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH               
DRIER AIR MOVING INLAND AS FLOW BEGINS TO VEER. THEREFORE CLOUDS                
MIXED WITH SUN THIS MORNING SHOULD YIELD LESS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.            
ANY CONVECTION TODAY...AND IT APPEARS THRU FRIDAY...WOULD BE                    
CONFINED TO EAST OF OUR AREA NEAR MONO LAKE SOUTHWARD AT BEST WHERE             
HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.                     
IN THE EXTENDED 00Z 28TH MRF IS TRENDING TOWARDS OLDER ECWMF AND SHOWS          
LESS RETROGRADING OF 4 CORNERS HIGH WHICH WOULD MEAN COOLER TEMPS               
AND NO CONVECTION FOR OUR CWA.                                                  
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KEKA 281549  ca                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1020 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE. APPEARS FROM SATELLITE AND RUC THAT MAY NEED             
HIGHER POPS EXTREME NORTH DUE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT LATE FROM                    
OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER OHIO VALLEY AND WEAK VORT TO            
MOVE OVER N GA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. <20% SOUTH.                                    
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK OK.                                                         
.ATL...HEAT ADVISORY CENTRAL AND SOUTH TODAY.                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 280710  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
SOME AC/ACCAS ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3 OF FA AT TIME.. WITH MAINLY CLEAR          
SKIES CENTRAL AND EAST. CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM.. WITH SCT               
STORMS NOW ON KPBZ RADAR MOVING INTO WESTERN PA AND MORE WIDESPREAD             
CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL OH.                                              
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER FA WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES.          
00Z NGM SHOWING MAIN VORT CENTER WELL UPSTREAM.. WITH NO EFFECTS UNTIL          
THIS EVENING. 09Z RUC SHOWING WEAK IMPULSES IN NW FLOW... BUT THESE MAY         
BE A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  TEMPS AOA 95 TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS         
FROM 65 TO 70 PRODUCING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AMS.. WITH CAPE VALUES              
AROUND 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR LATE DAY             
STORMS IN FORECAST.. THINKING THAT ANY LITTLE RIPPLE OR BOUNDARY FROM           
STORMS TO THE NW WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA.  CHANCE POPS         
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW STILL IN ORDER.. LOOKING AT TRACK OF SHORT WAVE            
AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL JET.                                               
CURRENT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN READING AT SAME TIME              
YESTERDAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MID 90S.. BUT WITH DRY GROUND AND FULL         
SUN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTN WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PLACES               
GETTING UP TO 98 OR 99.                                                         
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 280647  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
MOST OF MICH IS STILL RATHER STABLE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS             
EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AS DEW POINTS RISE OVER FA FROM APPROACHING             
WARM FRONT...IN COMBINATION TO AFTERNOON HEATING. LATEST LAPS DATA              
SHOWS CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG OVER SW MI/IN WHICH SHOULD              
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO MUCH OF W MICH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS SUPPORTED BY                  
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS WELL AS A TWO            
VORTS FARTHER UPSTREAM AND EXPECTED TO MOVING INTO WI THEN EFFECTING            
FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  RUC PICKS UP ON THIS VORT ACTIVITY RATHER             
NICELY SUGGESTING AN ARRIVAL TIME AFTER 19Z FOR W MI. THIS CAN ONLY             
HELP TS DEVELOPMENT....INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY.                
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD ONLY CHANGED THUNDERSTORM WORDING JUST A            
BIT.                                                                            
MCINERNEY                                                                       
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 281546  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
RUC INDICATING A WEAK SHRTWV WILL TRAVERS THE FA THIS AFTN. LATEST              
SFC ANLYS SHOWING A STATIONARY FNT OVR SRN WI AND LOWER MI. AS PER              
CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE                
STABLE THRU THE AFTN OVR FA...AS CAPE VALUES OVR MQT WILL FALL FM               
1500 J/KG TO 170 J/KG BY 18Z. GOES DERIVED CAPE VALUES SEEM TO                  
VERIFY THIS ALSO AS THE 13Z READING WERE 200-600J/KG. THE LI'S AT               
IWD WILL CHG FM -8 AT 12Z TO -1 BY 18Z. LATEST ISENTROPIC ANLYS                 
SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE OVR UP BECMG MORE STABLE AND EVEN SOME                   
SUBSIDENCE BY MID AFTN. WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR OVR CNTRL MN INTO            
WI IN ASSOC WITH UPR LVL JET. A WEAK SFC TROF XTNDS ACRS ERN LAKE               
SUPERIOR THRU ERN UP TO GRB AT 15Z.  CU DVLP AT THE LCL LVL ACRS OVR            
UP ATTM...XPCT TO BCM MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTN PROGRESS.                     
WILL NOT UPDATE FCST ATTM.                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 281143  mi                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
908 AM PDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FLOW OF            
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA THE             
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH AND               
WEST INCREASING THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL           
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.                                 
DISCUSSION...12Z DRA SOUNDING...SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW                
DEEPER MOISTURE HAS MADE SOME PROGRESS TO THE W AND N VERSUS TUE.               
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG AN AXIS FROM SRN                
LINCOLN COUNTY INTO CLARK CO WITH UPPER 60S FARTHER S ALONG THE CO              
RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED CLOSE TO ONE INCH AT DRA              
WHICH IS ABOUT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PUSH. CONVECTIVE              
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 90S AT DRA AND MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS           
CAPES NEAR 1700 J/KG. HOWEVER...SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALMOST NON-             
EXISTENT ON SOUNDINGS AND AREA 88D WIND PROFILES SO INITIAL STORM               
ENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO WELL DEVELOPED OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TODAY.            
MODELS OF NO HELP IN DIAGNOSING LINEAR NW-SE BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT           
SHOWERS FROM NRN NYE TO JUST N OF LAS. CLOUDS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL            
INITIALLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS NV. ANOTHER LIMITING                
FACTOR TODAY IS THE LACK OF ANY DYNAMICS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
WILL WATCH EASTERLY WAVE SEEN ON SATELLITE ALONG SRN AZ/MEXICO BORDER           
S OF PHX. THIS FEATURE INITIALIZED DECENTLY BY 12Z RUC WITH DYNAMICS            
IN ADVANCE OF IT GIVING RISE TO STORMS ACROSS SW AZ THIS MORNING.               
QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH IF ANY FORCING THIS WILL PROVIDE ACROSS SRN               
MOHAVE AND ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES TODAY AS MODELS WEAKEN IT                
WHILE MOVING THE VORT MAX SLOWLY W TODAY.                                       
DESPITE INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FLASH FLOOD           
WATCHES DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZED FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.            
AREAS TO WATCH FOR STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NW ARIZONA (MORE                     
SUN/INSTABILITY) AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY (POSSIBLE FORCING FROM ELY             
WAVE). WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN TODAY PORTION TO INCREASE                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NW AZ AND DECREASE TEMPS ELSEWHERE BASED           
ON CLOUD COVER.                                                                 
NEMETH                                                                          
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 281541  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
958 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
.DISC...MOSTLY CLR SKIES COVER REGION ATTM.  CLD MASS VCNTY LK HURON            
HEADING SE.  ALL GRT LKS AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z INDICATG               
QUITE DRY ALL LEVELS.  BUT LATEST RUC VORT SUGG SOME SUPPORT FOR                
THESE CLDS AS THEY CLOSE IN.  LOOKS AS THO IT MAY BE AS A GEN                   
EXPANSION OF MID-LEVEL AC MAINLY ACRS ADIRONDACKS...AS PER LATEST SAT           
PIX SHWG CLDS JUST BEG TO FORM THERE.  THEY WL PROB THIN OUT                    
SOME...SO WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF SUN IN N AND KEEP THE SUNNY ELSW.           
TEMPS LOOK GREAT BASED ON LTST SOUNDING DATA AND SURF RPTS...SO WILL            
NOT TOUCH THESE.  LOW DEWPTS SHUD ALLOW FOR AN EASY REACH TO FCST               
HIGHS BY LATE AFTN.  NO OTHER CHGS.                                             
.ALY...NONE.                                                                    
ELH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBGM 281353  ny                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1015 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
FCST CHALLENGE: SEVERE WX THREAT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.                          
VERY SIMILAR PATTERNS DEVELOPING OVER FGF CWFA TODAY AS YESTERDAY.              
SFC TROF AT 14Z EXTENDS FROM NWRN LK WINNIPEG THROUGH WRN ND INTO               
SERN MT. SFC DEWPTS ARE ONCE AGAIN SURGING NEWD FROM CNTRL SD INTO              
ERN ND. TEMPS AND DEWPTS THROUGHOUT ERN ND AND WCNTRL MN ARE AS HIGH            
OR HIGHER THAN YTDY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H5 WAVE IN NW FLOW PATTERN              
IN ERN MT IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AND TIMING TO YTDYS WAVE AS WELL.              
12Z RUC FCST HAS SFC TROF AND THETAE RIDGE MOVING INTO ERN ND MID               
AFTERNOON AND INTO NW MN BY EARLY EVENING. LIS ARE FCST ONLY INTO               
MINUS 5 TO 8 INDICATING STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RUC IS NOT              
BRINGING IN THE HIGH DEWPTS THAT ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN CNTRL SD               
AND POOLING INTO CNTRL ND AHEAD OF THE TROF. A MODIFIED ABR SOUNDING            
USING EXISTING ERN ND DEWPTS PUSHES CAPES TO THE 4K+ REALM WITH LIS             
TO MINUS 11. WITH DEWPTS TO LOW 70S...LIS PUSH MINUS 12. LOW LEVEL              
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SIMLAR TO YTDY AS WELL. AGREE WITH SWODY1                     
UPDATE...THAT RISK OF SEVERE EXISTS ACROSS SRN ZONES. WILL UPDATE               
HWO AND ZONES TO REFLECT THIS. WILL MONITOR SITUATION FOR POTENTIAL             
WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 280820  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
322 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER              
PORTIONS OF FA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...                         
.SHORT TERM...ONLY CURRENT MODELS TO LOOK AT THE 0Z NGM AND RUC...AND           
BOTH ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HANDLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FA AS EACH        
UNDERESTIMATING DEWPOINTS AT THE SFC. WV IMAGERY SHOWING NRN EDGE OF            
TROPICAL PLUME BUILDING INTO NRN PLAINS...WITH NGM NOT HANDLING THIS AS         
WELL AS IT SHOWS 500 TO 100 MB RH VERY DRY. 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE DID HIT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER         
IA AT 6Z. NGM DOES HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF 850 TO 500 MB Q VECTOR                  
CONVERGENCE OVER NE FA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE DRYING AT THE SFC IT         
KEEPS THE BEST INSTABILITY TO THE SE OF AREA. 0Z RUC DID PICK UP ON             
WEAK S/W MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA THIS AM...AND FOLLOWING SATELLITE           
MOVEMENT THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.              
WITH DRYING AT SFC OVERDONE...AND WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING TOWARD           
AREA...WILL KEEP MENTION OF A CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER ALL BUT          
FAR NW CWFA WHERE DRIER AIR SHOULD MAKE IT IN. WILL KEEP THE POPS LOW           
HOWEVER. FWC NUMBERS DID OK IN THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE NOT MUCH PCPN HAS          
FALLEN IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT TOO WARM WHERE HIGHER RH AND MORE         
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE EXISTS. LOWER 90S LOOK GOOD MOST AREAS ALONG AND            
WEST OF RRV...AROUND 90 SE AND 85 TO 90 OVER THE NE FA.                         
.LONG TERM...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS               
MAINLY OVER THE MN PORTION OF THE FA...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF           
DAYTIME HEATING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. TEMPS TO           
STAY ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WHILE                
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE BY 48                
HRS...WITH SOME DRYING IN LOWER LEVELS TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE.          
.EXTENDED...NGM SHOWS SURGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE WEST OF THE FA BY 48 HRS         
WITH AREA OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH             
PLAINS. SFC TROF IN THIS AREA SHOULD SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY           
IN LINE WITH EARLIER AVN FORECAST WHICH WILL SPREAD THUNDERSTORM                
ACTIVITY INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. CURRENT EXTENDED ON TRACK WITH THIS         
SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. UNLESS NEW MRF ARRIVES PRIOR TO ZFP                 
ISSUANCE...WILL LEAVE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED ALONE.                              
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION DLH.                                                
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
TURNER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 280647  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
WL CONT WITH PREV FCST. RUC HAS WK S/WV OVR THE AREA THIS AFTN AND WITH         
UNSTBL AMS WL CONT SML CHC POP. TEMPS LK RSNBL AS THEY ARE RUNNING THE          
SAME OR A DEG OR TWO ABV 24 HRS AGO IN MOST LOCATIONS.                          
.CAE...HEAT ADVY TDA SCZ015>016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                
CDL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 281406  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE 11 AM PACKAGE.  LATEST RUC SHOWS INCREASED              
MOISTURE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE MOVING TO NC MTNS.  ALL MODELS AND                 
THIS MRNG'S SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH CWFA.                
WITH ALL THE BOUNDARIES FROM YTD'S STORMS...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE             
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTN.                                                            
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HEAT INDEX PARTICULARLY IN SC BUT WITH BLDG                 
CU AND BLOWOFF FROM CB'S WE SHOULD STILL STAY BELOW 105.                        
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
DICARLO                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 281357  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1025 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
MRNG U/A ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WRN AND SRN               
SECTIONS OF THE FA AREA THIS MRNG. THIS TROUGH IS EVIDENT MAINLY IN             
THE H8-H7 LAYER. 12Z RUC ANALYZED THIS FEATURE WELL AND SLIDES IT               
SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE                  
INITIATION LATER THIS AFTN.                                                     
VIS/WV IMAGERY INDICATES BAND OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS             
THE AREA ATTM. AS A RESULT... SCT/BKN AC DECK HOLDING TEMPS A                   
CATEGORY BELOW YESTERDAY'S PACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z RUC                
FORECASTS DO INDICATE SLIGHT DRYING PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA             
THIS AFTN. FCST TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                 
LOWERING TEMPS FOR NOW. CURRENT POPS LOOK IN LINE AS WELL. THUS...NO            
UPDATES ARE PLANNED ATTM                                                        
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
CBD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 281456  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
953 AM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS COLDER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED               
WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NE KS E ACROSS NORTHERN               
MO...S CENTRAL IL AND THEN E INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OH...WITH TENDENCY              
TO SLIP TO THE SE WITH TIME. ALL THIS DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FROM IL            
ON TO THE E...APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY 850/700 MB WARM ADVECTION AND             
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES.                                                           
THIS PRECIP SEEMS TO LINE UP FAIRLY WELL WITH INITIAL ANALYSIS OF 12Z           
RUC 700/500 MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. RUC FORECASTS ONE              
AREA OF VORTICITY ADVECTION TO MOVE SE INTO NORTHERN PLATEAU AROUND             
21Z AND REST OF E TN AROUND 00Z. CURRENT POPS FOR PLATEAU MAY BE TOO            
LOW AT 30 PERCENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ALONE UNTIL I GET            
BETTER IDEA THAT THIS SCENARIO MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES AT               
THIS TIME.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
STEIGERWALDT                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 281359  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1040 AM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                     
12Z MDL SNDGS QUITE DRY...BUT RUC/NGM INDCT INCRG H8 MSTR TAFTN.                
SOME CU ALRDY DEVPG AND XPCT MORE TAFTN.  ALSO...CLD DEBRIS ASSCD               
WITH REMNANTS OF TSTM COMPLEX APCHG W ZNS. NGM/RUC INDCT THESE CLDS             
WL MOV INTO W ZNS LTR TAFTN.  ALL ADDS UP TO PTSUNNY FCST.                      
TMPS ARE RISING QUICKLY BUT PREV FCST HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE FOR              
MOST AREAS.  WL JUST RAISE TMPS IN CHMPLN VLY AS MID/UPR 80S APPEAR             
LKLY.                                                                           
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
KJC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBTV 280616  vt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
944 AM MDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE AFTN WITH VRY WARM TEMPS AND SCT TSTM              
ACTVTY...ESP IN SE AND S CNTRL WY.  ALRDY A FEW SHWRS NOTED IN N CNTRL          
CO.  MID AND UPR LVL MSTR PLUME HAS SHIFTED BACK TO SW WY AND HAS               
LINGERED INTO SE WY AS WELL.  DRIER AIR AT MID AND UPR LVLS IS SPRDG            
SLWLY N IN CO AS HGTS ALFT RISE OVR THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  THIS DRIER AIR          
SHUD AFFECT AT LEAST PART OF SE WY AND THE WRN NEB PNHNDL LTR TNGT AND          
ON THU.  THE 12Z RUC AGREES WITH THE GOING FCST AND ITS TREND.                  
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
WEILAND                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KCYS 280814  wy                                      

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
245 PM MST WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER                   
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WEATHER DISTURBANCES                     
EMBEDDED IN A MOIST...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN              
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM                     
ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.                          
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY             
RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE WESTERN SECTION OF CWA.                   
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN WEST CENTRAL AZ CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY              
THIS MORNINGS RUC MODEL. THE WNW PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE NOT                
ONLY HELPING TRIGGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT KEEPING MOST               
OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.                    
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY THAT'S BEEN CAUGHT IN THE RAIN                 
GAUGE NETWORK HAS BEEN IN CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY WITH 0.3 TO 0.98               
INCH REPORTED SINCE 12Z. RADAR ESTIMATES ALSO SHOW HEAVY RAINFALL               
OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND PARTS OF THE RIM COUNTRY.  VERY MOIST             
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF                     
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL KEEP DAILY CONVECTION GOING THRU THE WEEKEND.              
NEXT DISTURBANCE TO WATCH FOR IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE INVERTED TROF             
POISED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO SE AZ TONIGHT AND NW ACROSS THE STATE               
TOMORROW.  ANOTHER SHOT FROM OLD MEXICO EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY              
TIME FRAME. THUS HIGH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EXPECTED OVER MOST               
OF THE CWA THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR NORTHEAST               
WHERE ISOLATED POPS ARE IN ORDER.                                               
EXTENDED...SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE               
WITH MONSOON FORECAST OF DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION TRENDS.                       
TW                                                                              
.FLG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 282118  az                                      

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
945 AM MST WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION               
WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE                  
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.                        
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WAVE MOVING THRU WEST                  
CENTRAL AZ ATTM. THIS FEATURE CAPTURED FAIRLY WELL BY RUC MODEL AND             
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY. 12Z FGZ SOUNDING              
SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAY...MODIFIED SOUNDING                
SHOWS CAPE JUST OVER 1300 JOULES/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR ONE             
INCH.  WESTERN HALF OF CWA EXPECTED TO BE PRIME THREAT AREA FOR                 
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU                
THIS REGION EXPECTED TO BE FORCING MECHANISM FOR STRONG CONVECTION.             
TSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS AGAIN TODAY.  WILL HAVE             
TO MONITOR RAINFALL CLOSELY AGAIN TODAY AS SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS             
REMAIN VERY WET OVER MOST OF THE CWA FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL.                  
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                
TW                                                                              
.FLG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 281646  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
238 PM EST WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SVR THIS AFTN AND EVE...                          
LTST SAT IMAGERY INDICTES SHRT WV MVG THROUGH WI WL HELP TRIGGER                
CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTN. LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO                  
FIRING OF STORMS IN NW FA.                                                      
EARLY AM SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR SIG HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION                 
SHOWS CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -12. GOES SOUNDER                  
PRODUCTS FORM 17Z SUPPORTS THIS TOO. THETA E GRADIENT DECENT ALNG SFC           
BOUNDARY THAT SHOWS UP MOSTLY IN SFC DP GRAD.                                   
RUC IS STRONGER WITH UVV AT 700 MB BUT ETA ALSO SHOWS SOME                      
UVV IN FA AROUND 00Z. MID LVL DRY AIR AND DECENT FLOW (40 KTS) AT 500           
MB LEADS TO CONVECTION ORGANIZATION IN FORM OF BOW ECHO WITH WINDS              
MAIN THREAT.  FREEZING LEVEL AND WBZ DON'T RULE OUT LARGE HAIL                  
THOUGH. VIL OF THE DAY BETWEEN 45 AND 50 USING AM SOUNDING VALUES.              
PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5 INS SO EXPECT SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS...BUT IF MODE             
IS BOW ECHO SPEED OF LINE WL LIKELY KEEP FLOODING TO A MIN.                     
NGM TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH CONTINUED RIDGING IN PLACE. POPS SEEMED A              
LITTLE LOW GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION...WILL BOOST A LITTLE.                        
SBN TE 070/092 072/093 073 07431                                                
FWA TE 071/094 073/094 074 07431                                                
AOH TE 072/092 073/093 073 07431                                                
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
ADOLPHSON                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 281916  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
111 PM MDT (211 PM CDT) WED JUL 28 1999                                         
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER KANSAS THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO            
AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF COLORADO TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS WITH 7C DEW            
POINT AT ABQ AND 5C AT GJT. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WAS ROTATING                 
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AND AT 18Z WAS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND               
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH A CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE CORNER OF              
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE RUC AND NGM SEEMED TO HANDLE THIS WAVE THE            
BEST. THIS SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE AIR            
MASS OVER THE NORTHWEST KANSAS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AT THE SURFACE THAN            
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ALONG THE NORTHERN             
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEW POINTS BETWEEN 75 AND 80!                  
18Z LIFTED INDICES WERE AROUND -10 AT LBF. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF               
THIS AIR MASS TO MY NEBRASKA COUNTIES...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND MID           
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS MAY REGROUP ZONES TO INCLUDE HIGHER CHANCES               
FOR STORMS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.                           
GIVEN LOCATION OF THE SHORT WAVE AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...               
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS FORECAST AREA WILL BE              
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND THE NORTH FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA.            
STORMS SHOULD END OVERNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS ATMOSPHERE           
STABILIZES AND WAVE MOVES NORTH. THE PATTERN WITH ENERGY FROM                   
EASTERLY WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES                  
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE DAY AND SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE                
UPPER RIDGE.                                                                    
NGM FWC GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN              
CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE FOURTH PERIOD HIGH AT HLC MAY BE TOO LOW                 
GIVEN THE AIRMASS TRAITS.                                                       
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
SKIPPER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGLD 281646  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
355 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
WATCHING AND WAITING...                                                         
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE BASED              
LI/S TO MINUS 11 ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...AND MINUS 3 TO MINUS 8                  
ACROSS CWA. CAPES AROUND 3300 J/KG ON A MODIFIED SOUNDING OF                    
88/68...AND LOW 70 TDS PREVALENT ACROSS SRN CWA...SO CAPES EVEN                 
HIGHER. ALL THAT IS LACKING IS A BOUNDARY TO INITIATE CONVECTION.               
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST LOWER TO MKE OFFERS LIKELY              
SOURCE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE. RUC INDICATES THIS TROUGH MAKING                 
SLOW...STEADY PROGRESS TOWARD CWA...REACHING THUMB BY 00Z AND INTO              
FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER BY 03Z. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS                  
CONTINUES WITH 30 TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT MID LEVELS AND DRY AIR AT MID             
LEVELS. MOST LIKELY THREAT OF SEVERE WOULD BE WINDS TO 70 MPH AND               
HAIL TO ONE INCH. WILL CARRY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT.               
TOMORROW...MORNING RESPITE...BEFORE WE DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN.                    
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER POTENTIAL BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER               
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRONT APPROACHES CWA TOWARD                    
EVENING...WITH POTENT 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION /850 MB WINDS TO 40              
KNOTS/...CAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND 500 MB WINDS 40 TO 50 KNOTS. ETA                
DOES INDICATE CINS TO ABOUT 100 J/KG...BUT NOT AT ALL CERTAIN THOSE             
ARE IN THE BALL PARK. SO...AGAIN...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED                       
THUNDERSTORMS... FOR AFTERNOON.                                                 
TOMORROW NIGHT...CONTINUING ON THEME FROM ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE                 
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FRONT APPROACHES AND CLEARS               
CWA BY 03Z TO 07Z NORTH TO SOUTH.                                               
BY FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN TO OFFER PARTLY SUNNY                
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.                                                       
ON TEMPS...FAN AND FWC MAX TEMPS SOME 10 DEGREES APART FOR TOMORROW             
AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD FWC/S BUT KNOCK OFF             
ABOUT 3 DEGREES TOMORROW AND NEAR FWC/S ON FRIDAY. MIN TEMPS ALSO               
SUSPECT WITH TDS INTO THE 70S ACROSS SRN CWA NOW...AND SOON TO BE IN            
70S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. FWC PROGS TDS CONSISTENTLY IN LOW TO MID 60S             
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. WILL UP MIN TEMPS BY ABOUT A CAT GIVEN                 
LIKELY TDS IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. RE HEAT ADVISORY                  
POTENTIAL...T/TD OF 95/72 YIELDS HEAT INDEX OF 105. POSSIBLE THAT               
DET COULD REACH THIS LEVEL TOMORROW...BUT AT THIS POINT NOT CLEAR               
THAT WOULD LAST FOR THE REQUIRED 3 HOURS. IN ADDITION...CLOUD COVER             
FROM EXPECTED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO LIMIT TOMORROW/S MAX                
TEMPS. SO FOR THIS ISSUANCE WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR                    
TOMORROW.                                                                       
AND THE EXTENDED...                                                             
MRF...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST                   
PERIOD. CWA TO REMAIN UNDER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE               
PERIOD. FRONT MOVES THROUGH CWA SATURDAY AND STALLS ALONG OHIO                  
VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND             
RESIDES OVER CWA THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN PLAINS LOW MOVES TOWARD             
CWA.                                                                            
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE BEST EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME ACTIVITY COULD            
LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW THOUGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY             
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE OFFING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH                 
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WEDNESDAY.                    
WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM FMR DAYTIME TEMPS...BUT WILL COOL                 
NIGHT TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY LOWS WITH SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.                                                        
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 281944  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
300 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
TWO SYSTMS WILL BE AFFECTING CWA DURG PD BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON               
TIMING AND AMNT OF MSTR AVAILABLE FOR APPRECIABLE PCPN.  FIRST SYSTM            
IS CRRNTLY WORKING E THRU OH VLLY AND SPARKING TSTMS ACRS OH/WRN PA             
WHERE MSTR SUPPLY IS MORE ABUNDANT.  MAIN SFC DWPT BNDRY/THETA-E RDG            
OVR WRN PA AND LATEST RUC FCST KEEPS IN MAINLY TO S AND W OF OUR                
CWA..ALTHOUGH THERE IS A TREND TOWARD LIFTING IT NEWRD INTO SRN CWA             
BY 03Z.  ELSEWHERE MORE STABLE CONDS PREVAILING AND KEEPING SKIES               
MSTLY CLR.  SINCE MAIN SFC DWPT/THETA-E BNDRY REMIANS TO S AND W                
TNGT AND LITTLE CONVECTION OBSRVD OVR CNTRL/NRN CWA WILL TAKE OUT               
POPS ACRS THE N BUT KEEP 30 PCNT ACRS SRN CWA FOR TNGT.                         
AS FIRST SHT WV MOVES CLOSER TO CWA TMW PCPN CHANCES WILL INCRS DURG            
AFTN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY EWRD ACRS CNTRL PA.  INSTABILITY NOT THAT              
STRONG HWVR AS BUFKIT DATA SHOWS CAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.  DWPTS              
WILL SLOWLY INCRS TMW UNDER SLWY FLO MAKING IT MORE MUGGY...BUT WARM            
AIR ALF...WEAK LIFT...AND NO REAL GOOD SUPPLY OF DEEPER LOW LVL MSTR            
WILL RESULT IN ONLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS.  HAVE CONTD TREND WITH HIER                
POPS ACRS THE S AND WILL TAKE OUT POPS ACRS THE N WHERE FORCING AND             
MSTR SUPPLY WILL BE WEAKER.                                                     
NEXT SHT WV PROGGED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWARD APPROACHING WRN CWA TMW             
NGT AND WILL MOVE INTO CWA ON FRI.  THIS WV WILL BE STRONGER AND                
LIKELY TO HAVE A STRONGER PUSH WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE SFC CDFNT FARTHER          
S.  RIGHT NOW FNT LOOKS LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON FRI GIVING BEST CHC FOR             
LIFT AND TSTMS AS MSTR POOLS AND RIDES NEWRD ALNG AND IN ADVANCE OF             
FNT.  WILL TREND ABOVE FWC MOS AND GO WITH SCT POPS.  DIFFICULT                 
TIMING OF FNT WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION OF TIMING PCPN IN FCST.                 
FWC TEMPS WARMER THAN FAN GUIDANCE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.  WRKZNS              
OUT...MAIN PCKG BY 315 PM.                                                      
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 281840  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
235 PM EDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
ETA MODEL SHOWING VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHILE THE        
RUCII MODEL SHOWING 500 MB NVA WITH VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS MID ATLANTIC         
REGION. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR INDICATES RUCII HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON           
CURRENT SITUATION. WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THIS          
EVENING AND CLIP NORTH MIDLANDS. WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL MENTION         
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF CAE FOR EVENING OTHERWISE NO POP DUE TO         
LACK OF TRIGGER...DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...I.E. DEWPOINTS NOW IN         
THE 60S...AND MID LEVEL CAP.                                                    
FOR THU...AVN/ETA SHOWING SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH THRU REGION DURING          
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NOTICEABLE COOL POOL AT 500 MB. WEAK TO MODERATE           
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...UVV'S WEAK BUT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECT         
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAE. SPC HAS NORTH AREA IN              
SLIGHT RISK. APPEARS SHEAR INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES               
STEEPEST AFTER 00Z. WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE EVENING. ON FRI UPPER             
LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                       
CONTINUES...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE          
AFTERNOON POP.                                                                  
TEMPS...TODAY HEAT INDEX CLOSE TO 105...AT TIMES EARLIER...BUT WITH             
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE 60S...WE ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO CRITERIA. ITS BEEN          
MARGINAL LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS TREND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL                
CONTINUE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY AND LET MIDNIGHT DECIDE.                    
PLAN ON GOING BELOW NGM MOS GUIDANCE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEEN RUNNING         
A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. AVN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK          
OK.                                                                             
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
AWP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 281418  sc                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
238 PM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES                 
TO BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE                    
REGION. LEE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND                  
WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES BUT HAVE NOTED ONLY WEAK                   
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT THIS AFTERNOON. MINOR UPPER                      
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES OVER THE               
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED PER                 
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.                                                         
WE MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LOW POPS THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL               
ZONES TO COVER ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIATES DUE TO THE PALO               
DURO CANYON CIRCULATION...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH              
EVIDENCE IN THE MODELS OR 15Z RUC TO SUPPORT THIS NOTION TODAY                  
EITHER.                                                                         
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE               
NORTHWEST ZONES AS THESE COUNTIES ARE CLOSER TO THUNDERSTORMS WHICH             
DEVELOP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD OFF WITH POPS            
BASED ON THE COOL FRONT THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS                    
INDICATED BY THE MRF.                                                           
PRELIM CCF...                                                                   
AMA UU 68/92 69/93 69 -00                                                       
DHT UU 64/94 65/97 66 202                                                       
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 281915  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
245 PM CDT WED JUL 28 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST FOCUS IS ON ON EXCESSIVE HEAT.                                        
BIGGEST WEATHER IMPACT WILL BE THE HEAT.  NGM MOS BRINGS TMPS INTO              
THE LOW 100S THU.  HWVR 1000 MB NGM FCST TMPS SEEM UNREALISTIC WITH 100         
DEG TMPS OVR IOWA AT 1 AM...AND 95 CENTERED OVR QUAD CITIES AT 7 AM!            
PREFER ETA.  TMPS STILL HOT WITH FCST SOUNDINGS BRINGING TMPS IN THE            
UPPER 90S.  NGM MOS DEWPTS SEEM LOW...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY.              
EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION SHLD RESULT IN LOW 70 DEWPTS...EVEN WITH MIXING             
FROM ABV. THIS WILL PUT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 107 TO 112.  NO RELIEF             
THROUGH FRIDAY.  THUS WILL GO HEAT ADVSRY FOR THURSDAY THROUGH                  
FRIDAY.                                                                         
NEXT FCST PRBLM IS TSTM CHCS.                                                   
TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH SE WI THIS EVE.  MDT CAPE (2000G/KG) VALUES              
OFF RUC SOUNDINGS.  SMALLEST CAP WL BE IN THE FAR SE VCNTY MKE-ENW.             
SOME MOISTURE CONVE IN LOW LVLS.                                                
NEXT ETA SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DVLPNG ACRS NE WI LATE TNGT            
AS NEXT SPEED MAX APRCHS IN JET.  IF ANYTHING DVLPS FAR ENOUGH NW IN            
THE ASSOCIATED MID/LOW LVL TROF...THE NW FLOW WLD BRING A THREAT TO             
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MRNG.  THEN SMALL CHC SOMETHING COULD FIRE              
AS THE TROF AXIS PUSHES ACRS SE WI IN MAX HEATING.  HWVR THERE IS               
THE QUESTION OF A CAP.  700 MB TMPS WLD INDICATE TOO MUCH OF A CAP.             
HWVR FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY HAVE THAT MUCH OF A CAP...JUST                
STEEP LAPSE RATE.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE HIGH CONVECTIVE TMP.             
AM LEANING ON SLGT CHC ESPECIALLY DUE TO SPC SLIGHT RISK.                       
COORDINATED WITH ARX/GRB/LOT                                                    
.UWNMS...SIMILAR TO ETA.  HWVR DOUBT NE WINDS WL DVLP TNGT BEHND                
EXITING TROF.                                                                   
ON THE QPF QUESTION.  UWNMS BRINGS ISLD TSTMS THIS EVE IN SE WI...              
AND MORE WIDESPREAD QPF WITH TROF AXIS THURSDAY.  AMTS ARE LGT.                 
.MKX...HEAT ADVISORY THURS THROUGH FRI ALL OF SC AND SE WI.                     
       ZONES 46..47..51..52..56>60..62>72.                                      
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 280853  wi