SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI                                                  
925 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
SEEMED TO HAVE INHERITED A NEAR PERFECT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES                  
PLANNED EXCEPT FOR TAKING OUT THE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS.                   
INTENSE TSRA CELL DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE MIAMI-DADE METRO AREA              
THIS EVENING AND ROLLED ACROSS THE OFFICE ON THE FIU MAIN CAMPUS                
WITH JUST UNDER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR. THAT HAS SINCE                  
WEAKENED AND MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO WILL HAVE WORDING             
IN THE MARINE ZONES OF ISOLATED SHRA ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SOMETHING            
SIMILAR. CLOUD COVER THINNING NICELY OVER THE MAINLAND WITH LOWERING            
DEW POINTS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUBLE COMES IN THAT BOTH               
THE RUC AND MESO-ETA KEEP DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND THE LOW 70S                
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SO TEMPERATURES MAY NOT QUITE GET DOWN TO            
WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS DO            
SHOW TEMP AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER                
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH THIS AIRMASS FILTERING SOUTHEAST                
AROUND THE BASE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SO IT MAY JUST BE A PROBLEM WITH            
RESOLUTION AND NOT BEING ABLE TO RECOGNIZE THE TIGHT GRADIENT                   
BETWEEN THE STILL WARM ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MAINLAND. SO WILL NOT            
CHANGE AT THIS TIME. ALSO...COULD BE A LITTLE PATCHY FOG AROUND IN              
THE MORNING WITH ALL OF THE RAIN BUT FEEL THAT SINCE IT WAS JUST ONE            
CELL PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AND ONLY ISOLATED AREAS              
WILL SEE ANY SO WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. MARINE WINDS ARE                 
RIGHT ON TARGET SO THEY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.                                  
.MIA...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
1016 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                      
12Z RAOB AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE/CLOUDS                 
CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL                
SHORT WAVE/FAVORABLE JET ALOFT (RRQ) AND ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE               
WHICH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES FOR              
THE LAST 24-36 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO EAST AND NORTHEAST             
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
IN ITS WAKE AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE (NOTED ON WV              
LOOP) IS MOVING INTO THE FA FROM THE GULF. THIS DRIER AIR AND                   
SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING INTO THE WEST            
AND NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY UPPER JET DIVES TOWARD             
THE SERN STATES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IMPROVEMENTS ESPECIALLY NORTHERN            
MOST ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BREAKS CENTRAL AND               
SOUTH DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS WILL TWEAK             
ZONES SLIGHTLY TO FIT THESE TRENDS. IN ADDITION WILL MONITOR TEMPS              
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...AND IF NEEDED WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY                  
BASED ON CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                      
MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS ALONG WITH LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA                
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ONGOING PACKAGE...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE                
1030 AM UPDATE.                                                                 
THANKS FOR COORD KMIA.                                                          
.TBW...NONE.                                                                    
MCMICHAEL                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
725 PM MST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
UPDATED TONIGHT AND SATURDAYS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE            
MENTION OF WIDESPREAD FOG OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN CWA WHERE PATCHY             
FOG WAS INCLUDED.                                                               
LATEST ANALYSIS HAS FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A FEW MILES JUST              
TO OUR WEST WHERE ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS. LATEST               
FSL RUCII AND 18Z ETA INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL            
INCREASE AND VISIBILITIES DECREASING SLOWLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF            
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE            
AREA WHERE ITS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE CLOSER TOWARD MORNING. THE FOG                
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY BEFORE                  
DECREASING. OTHER THAN THAT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES MADE             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
356 PM CST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
TNGHT-SAT                                                                       
ACTIVE PATTERN POSSIBLY SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. RUC CURRENTLY               
SHOWS DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDERWAY FOR MUCH OF TX AND OK. THIS WAS             
GIVING WAY TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. 850MB/70OMB PROFILERS ACROSS NM            
WERE SHOWING A NICE BACKING TREND ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WAVE              
JUST OFF SW CONUS EMBEDDED IN SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. THIS WAVE                
LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THAT AREA LATE TNGHT AND WILL PUSH DEEPER MSTR             
AXIS NORTH AS A RESULT. KAMA SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS SATURATED UP             
TO 700MB AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THIS MSTR               
LOOKS TO APPROACH OUR DOORSTEP WHICH COULD TURN THE PRECIP SWITCH ON            
LATE TNGHT OR EARLY SAT MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS.                           
SAT MORNING WILL BE A TRICKY FCST ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS              
OF CWA. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS HAS ME CONCERNED IF                
THIS MSTR AND LIFT CAN WORK ITS WAY UP THERE. SNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST             
ICE PELLETS/FRZ RA POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE MORNING FOR CENTRAL KS.               
THIS COULD EVEN REACH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH TOO WITH SOUTH CENTRAL KS             
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME FROZEN PELLETS EARLY BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO              
COLD RAIN. THE KEY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THE EARLY MORNING TEMPS FOR           
ALL AREAS IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THIS WILL DICTATE WHAT HAPPENS TO                
PRECIP WHEN IT REACHES THE SFC. IT WILL BE A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN              
LOW LEVEL TEMPS AND TIMING OF WARMER AIR TRYING TO PUSH NORTH.                  
EITHER WAY IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH                 
POSSIBLE FREEZING PRECIP IF THE COLD AIR HANGS IN TIGHT. JUST A                 
HEADS UP FOR LATER SHIFTS NOW DUE TO A LOT OF FACTORS. WILL GO WITH             
POP GRADIENT FROM S-N.                                                          
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING ITS WHEELS FOR              
SOME TIME NOW FINALLY APPEARS THAT IT WILL GET A PUSH. SHOULD                   
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SAT NGHT AND GIVE ANOTHER ADDED BOOST TO                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT. WONT TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR PRECIP SINCE MSTR WILL                 
ALREADY BE IN THE AREA. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE                  
LIQUID VARIETY SAT NIGHT ATTM.                                                  
SUN-MON                                                                         
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH              
SUBSIDENCE DOWNGLIDE SHUTTING PRECIP OFF FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE CWA.             
THIS SHOULD ALSO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUD COVERAGE AS THE DAY GOES ON.               
SFC HIGH PRESS WILL RACE DOWN AND SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.            
MSTR TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY BACK AROUND AS SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST ON               
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE TOUGH WITH MUCH OF THE MOISTURE PROBABLY BEING             
SCOURED OUT ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE SLIGHT POPS IN ATTM TO               
AVOID FLIP-FLOPPING OF POPS.                                                    
EXTENDED:TUES-FRI                                                               
UPPER LOW OFF OF SW CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE                  
PLAINS VIA SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. ECM/GFS AGREE ON PUSHING A FRONT            
THRU THE AREA EARLY ON TUES. GOOD SUBSIDENCE DOWNGLIDE BEHIND THE               
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT QUICKLY. GOING ON OUR 4TH WEEK OF NW              
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. GFS KEEPS THIS PATTERN THRU WED THEN                  
SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD...WHILE ECM SHOWS THE SAME FEATURE BUT              
HOLDS THE RIDGE BACK A BIT. EITHER WAY UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE A              
BIT EASTWARD SO WILL GO WITH A WARMING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF             
THE EXTENDED...WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE PROBABLY KICKING IN FOR THUR AND             
FRI. WILL ALSO KEEP FRI DRY FOR NOW BUT COULD SEE A POSSIBLE INTRO              
LATER ON IF MSTR CAN JUMP BACK INTO EQUATION.                                   
FCSTID = 15/JAKUB                                                               
ICT   33  44  40  50 /  20  40  40  30                                          
HUT   30  41  38  49 /  20  30  30  30                                          
EWK   32  42  39  49 /  20  30  40  30                                          
EQA   32  43  40  50 /  20  40  40  30                                          
WLD   35  44  40  52 /  20  50  50  30                                          
RSL   29  40  34  47 /  10  20  30  30                                          
GBD   30  40  36  48 /  10  20  30  30                                          
SLN   29  40  37  47 /  10  20  30  30                                          
MPR   32  42  39  49 /  20  30  40  30                                          
CFV   34  43  41  53 /  20  60  50  30                                          
CNU   32  43  41  53 /  10  40  50  30                                          
K88   31  42  41  53 /  10  40  50  30                                          
.ICT...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW DEEP UPR TROF OVR SE CAN DOWNWND            
OF UPR RDG OVR WRN CAN. CWA DOMINATED BY NWLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF              
UPR TROF...AND THIS FLOW HAS ADVCTD MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE            
NW GRT LKS. A SHRTWV IS NOTED DIGGING SE FM NRN MANITOBA INTO FAR NW            
ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...HI PRES HAS DROPPED INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SFC            
LO ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL CNDN SHRTWV IS NOW NR YPL AND MOVG SE AS               
WELL. A WSW LLVL FLOW BTWN THE LO TO THE N AND HI TO THE S IS ADVCTG            
VERY DRY/STABLE AIR OBSVD IN MN AND DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL SDNG                
(SFC DWPTS ARND 15...AND INL KINX IS -32 WITH SHARP INVRN AT H85)               
INTO THE CWA. SO EVEN THOUGH SOME COLDER CLD TOPS IN WAD PATTERN IN             
ADVANCE OF CNDN SHRTWV IS MOVG INTO THE CWA...NOTHING BUT MID/HI CLD            
OBSVD OVR CWA ATTM. 00Z YPL SDNG SHOWS SHARP INVRN AT H8...WITH ONLY            
HIEST 50MB OF RATHER DRY MIXED LYR NR SATURATION. YQD SDNG MORE                 
REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS BEHIND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT APRCHG NRN MN              
SHOWS A MORE MOIST BLYR...BUT SHARP INVRN NOTED AT H9. ONLY SOME                
--SN RPRTS IN THESE AREAS.                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/POTENTIAL FOR LES LATE/MIN               
TEMPS.                                                                          
00Z RUC/ETA SHOW CNDN SHRTWV DIGGING THRU CWA OVRNGT AND BECMG                  
RATHER SHEARED WITH SFC LO REACHING JUST E OF ANJ BY 12Z. MAJORITY              
OF NGT SHUD BE IN RELATIVELY DRY WLY FLOW TO S OF SFC LO/COLD FNT.              
AS SFC LO REACHES A POSITION JUST E OF ANJ TOWARD DAWN...ETA/RUC                
SHOW COLD FNT PASSING THRU KEWEENAW AND REACHING SRN LK SHORE TO THE            
E. ALTHOUGH SOME SHSN SHUD DVLP ALG AND BEHIND THIS FNT...RELATIVELY            
LO INVRN HGT AND DRY SUB INVRN AIR WL HINDER LES DVLPMNT. BEST SHOT             
AT LES WL OCCUR OVR THE ERN SNOWBELTS WITH A LONGER FETCH AND MORE              
DIRECT SHOT OF CAD SAT  MRNG 12Z-18Z. BUT EVEN HERE...00Z ETA FCST              
SDNGS INDICATE INVRN AT H85-875 WITH QVECTOR DVGC IN WAKE OF SHRTWV             
OCCURRING DURIND PD OF CAD (NO LK ENHANCEMENT) MAINTAINING THE LO               
INVRN. LES CHART SUGS LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN 6 HRS. WL MENTION UP TO             
AN INCH BY DAWN...THEN 1 TO 2 INCHES TMRW MRNG FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN               
SCHOOLCRAFT.                                                                    
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS WL REMAIN IN THE TEENS...COMBINATION OF TIGHT                
PRES GRADIENT/WLY FLOW (RUC SHOWS H925 WNDS 20 TO 30 KTS ALL NGT IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INL SDNG SHOWING 32 TO 35 KT WNDS AT 2-3K FT                
AGL) AND SCT-BKN CLD COVER WL PREVENT MINS FM FALLING CLOSE TO THE              
DWPT. HAVE BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS JUST A BIT TO REFLECT IMPACT OF                  
MIXING IN H100-85 THKNS RDG THAT REMAINS OVR CWA UNTIL DAWN.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS:                                               
SAT NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AS WINDS                  
WEAKEN AND BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.                               
SUN...WHILE ETA MOISTURE PRFL WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE             
NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY PCPN...AVN 280-290K FCST COND            
PRES TO NEAR 10 MB LOOKS MORE PROMISING BUT MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN               
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW. SO...PCPN REDUCED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES.              
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER AGAIN WILL PUSH H8 TEMPS            
DOWN TO NEAR -10C...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT -SHSN FOR                    
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. AGAIN...RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION              
HGTS AND MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LGT IF ANY ACCUMULATION.                        
TUE THROUGH FRI...GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                
WITH STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO            
THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUE INTO WED. WHILE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE              
MOISTURE AVBL...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING WITH THE SFC AND MID             
LVL TROF SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FROM LATE TUES INTO EARLY            
WED. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR FROM LK            
MI FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING              
-SHSN/FLURRIES EARLY WED WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC/H5                
RDGING TAKES OVER. MDLS TREND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS...HAS BEEN              
TOWARD LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH COLDER AIR JUST BRUSHING THE WRN            
LAKES. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN FOR THU WITH  POSSIBILITY OF              
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING EVEN THROUGH H8 TEMPS FCST NEAR -8C WOULD ONLY            
PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN            
KEEPS LOWER HGTS INTO THE GRT LAKES AND IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE            
00Z/06Z GFS...12Z GFS SHOWS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED HGT RISES WITH                 
STRONGER WAA FRI WARRANTING MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW.                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS TONIGHT AND -SN/LES POTENTIAL WITH            
CLIPPER SUN INTO MON.                                                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC WITH A             
MID LVL TROF INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE A REX BLOCK HAD SET UP OVER               
WRN NOAM. THIS LEFT THE WRN GRT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NRN                
STREAM NW FLOW. AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO WAS                    
LOCATED OVER NW ONTARIO WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS...PER IR LOOP. WEAK             
RDG AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN BACKING WINDS WITH LES                 
BANDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND TAKING A MORE E-W ORIENTATION...PER              
VIS LOOP. KMQT 88D ALSO INDICATED WEAKENING REFLECTIVITIES WITH                 
REMAINING -SHSN. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND INVERSION HGTS BLO 5K FT                  
WORKING INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR...REPRESENTED BY 12Z KINL/CYQD                     
SNDGS...HAS ALSO LIMITED LES DEVELOPMENT.                                       
IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA PREFERRED WITH MORE PROMINENT AND DEFINED               
SFC TROF MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. WITH NEXT                       
SYSTEM...AVN OR UKMET/CANADIAN LOOKED MORE REASONABLE WITH ETA A BIT            
TOO STRONG GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LVL SHRTWV...PER HPC DISC.                     
TONIGHT INTO SAT...CONTINUED BACKING TREND WITH LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD            
PUSH LES BANDS MAINLY OFFSHORE EAST OF MARQUETTE THIS EVENING WITH              
ONLY A FEW SCRAPING THE SHORELINE EAST OF MUNISING. OTHERWISE...SCT             
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST. EXPECTED LES TO                  
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH                    
ATTENDANT LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FOLLOWED BY VEERING WINDS TO NW. WHILE            
THE AVN DEPICTS H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C WHICH WOULD WOULD GIVE LK-H8              
DELTA/T TO AROUND 16C...LOWER INVERSION HGTS SUGGESTED BY THE ETA               
RESULT IN H8 TEMPS CLOSER TO -6C. COMBINATION OF LIMITED MOISTURE TO            
-10C AND LIMITED CBL DEPTH SHOULD LIMITE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AN               
INCH OR TWO AT MOST LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE DAY SAT.                  
LONGER FETCH INTO ERN UPR MI MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER INVERSION            
HGTS AND MOISTENING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS ALSO KEPT AT 1-2 INCH              
RANGE FOR MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND SAT. SAT NIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES            
SHOULD DIMINISH AND END AS WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME SRLY AHEAD OF THE            
NEXT CLIPPER.                                                                   
SUN...WHILE ETA MOISTURE PRFL WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE             
NEXT CLIPPER LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY PCPN...AVN 280-290K FCST COND            
PRES TO NEAR 10 MB LOOKS MORE PROMISING BUT MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN               
LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW. SO...PCPN REDUCED TO MENTION OF FLURRIES.              
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...CAA BEHIND THE CLIPPER AGAIN WILL PUSH H8 TEMPS            
DOWN TO NEAR -10C...ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCT -SHSN FOR                    
LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NW FLOW. AGAIN...RELATIVELY SHALLOW INVERSION              
HGTS AND MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST LGT IF ANY ACCUMULATION.                        
TUE THROUGH FRI...GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                
WITH STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL TROF MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO            
THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUE INTO WED. WHILE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LITTLE              
MOISTURE AVBL...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING WITH THE SFC AND MID             
LVL TROF SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FROM LATE TUES INTO EARLY            
WED. SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY BRING ENOUGH WARM AIR FROM LK            
MI FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. EXPECT POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINGERING              
-SHSN/FLURRIES EARLY WED WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AS SFC/H5                
RDGING TAKES OVER. MDLS TREND...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFS...HAS BEEN              
TOWARD LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH COLDER AIR JUST BRUSHING THE WRN            
LAKES. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LEFT IN FOR THU WITH  POSSIBILITY OF              
CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVING EVEN THROUGH H8 TEMPS FCST NEAR -8C WOULD ONLY            
PROVIDE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR LES. ALTHOUGH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN            
KEEPS LOWER HGTS INTO THE GRT LAKES AND IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE            
00Z/06Z GFS...12Z GFS SHOWS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED HGT RISES WITH                 
STRONGER WAA FRI WARRANTING MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW.                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1031 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                      
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ALL REMAINS THE SAME. STRONG VORT MAX AND                 
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL           
REINFORCE LAKE EFFECT ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ONTARIO. ALL MODELS ARE              
INDICATING AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND GEORGIAN BAY           
TO FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE            
LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.             
*** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS ***                                             
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE MECCA FOR MESOSCALE                    
WEATHER...IS EXPERIENCING ITS FIRST REAL LAKE EFFECT EVENT OF THE               
SEASON. WHILE DELTA T'S ARE GREATER THAN 15...CLOUD LEVEL TEMPS ARE             
ONLY ARND -10C. AS A RESULT THE BULK OF THE PCPN AT THIS EARLY HOUR             
IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN            
THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER COLD AIR EAST OF LK ONTARIO.                                
SYNOPTICALLY...THE REGION REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITHIN A COLD CYCLONIC             
FLOW. A PERSISTANT VORTEX JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO               
CIRCULATE SEASONABLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND AS A                 
RESULT LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.            
THE VORTEX WILL FINALLY ROTATE TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC LATE              
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING NORTH AMERICA VIA THE MARITIMES           
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT LIVED PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE               
GREAT LAKES REGION TO SUPPLY US WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE                
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.                                                     
LOOKING CLOSER AT THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER               
LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO (BOTH AT +11C) WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.           
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABV 10K WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN               
THE VCNTY OF 750 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THE FLY IN THE                   
OINTMENT WILL BE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.                                      
CURRENTLY...A 260 FLOW HAS A DISORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN              
AND SNOW STRETCHING FROM NEAR ERIE AND JHW NORTHEAST TO ABOUT ROC.              
BOTH ETA 12 AND RUC40 GUIDANCE AGREE ON SHIFTING THE AXIS OF THIS               
BAND OFF THE LAKE...THUS REDUCING PCPN AMOUNTS. DIURNAL EFFECTS AND             
A SHORTENED FETCH WITH WINDS VEERING TO 280 SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL                
AMOUNTS IN CHECK...SO WILL PROBABLY DROP ADVISORY FOR SITES SOUTH OF            
BUF. MEANWHILE...A HEALTHIER LOOKING BAND OF MIXED PCPN OFF LK ONT              
EXTENDS ACROSS SRN PARTS THE TUG HILL REGION.                                   
WET SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...              
BUT AGAIN MIXTURE HAS KEPT AMOUNTS BLO EXPECTATIONS. REGARDLESS...              
WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR EAST OF LK ONTARIO TODAY AS COLD               
AIR DEEPENS A BIT WITH BETTER UVV AND MORE CONDUCIVE MICROPHYSICS.              
THE REAL ACTION EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT AS A                 
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A MULTI-LAKE PLUME OF SNOW. THE HEAVIEST            
SNOW SHOULD FALL BETWEEN NIGHTFALL AND ABOUT MIDNIGHT OVER OSWEGO               
COUNTY...WITH LAKE SUPERIOR AND GEORGIAN BAY PRIMING THE ACTIVITY.              
WOULD NOT BE SURPIRSED TO SEE AMOUNT SIN EXCESS OF A FOOT FOR OSWEGO            
COUNTY TONIGHT...WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN WAYNE AND            
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. THE THREE COUNTIES MENTIONED WILL BE                  
INCLUDED IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR TONIGHT.                             
OFF LK ERIE...DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT 290-310             
FLOW WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE/EQUIL VALUES SHOULD BE             
ABLE TO PRODUCE MARGINAL WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR CHAUTAUQUA               
CATT COUNTIES.                                                                  
APPRECIATE COORD W/ BGM.                                                        
.BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TODAY NYZ007-008.                              
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NYZ006.              
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ004-005-019-020.                     
RSH/WCH                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1008 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                      
LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ONEIDA              
COUNTY THIS MORNING.  WEBCAMS FROM THAT AREA SHOWING DECENT                     
SNOWFALL OCCURRING.  AT THIS TYPING, COLD FRONT JUST NORTH AND WEST             
OF LAKE ONTARIO.  LATEST RUC SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA            
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN                 
SECTIONS OF THE AREA, NOT INCLUDING THE TUG HILL, ARE STILL IN THE              
MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES THIS MORNING.  AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES            
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LAKE BANDS TO MOVE TO A MORE             
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SNOW                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.  WILL MOSTLY LIKELY UPDATE TO REMOVE            
MORNING WORDING BEFORE 1700 UTC.  CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING LOOK             
IN LINE AT THIS TIME. RAM                                                       
.BGM...LAKE SNOW ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY...NYZ009.                                  
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT               
       ...NYZ018-036-037.                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
850 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
TEMPS IN THE CSTL PLAIN HAVE ACTUALLY JUMPED UP A LITTLE BIT OVR THE            
PAST HOUR OR SO. THINK THIS IS DUE TO BNDRY LAYER WINDS MIXING THE              
LOW LEVELS. FCST LOWS TNT MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COLD AND WILL BUMP              
THEM UP A LITTLE. WILL LEAVE CHC OF FROST IN FCST. FROST WILL LIKLEY            
BE SPOTTY TNT AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A MORE            
SIGNIFICANT FROST WILL OCCUR TMRW NIGHT WITH CALMER WINDS AND COLDER            
TEMPS. PRES GRAD IS TIGHTNING ALONG THE OBX AND THIS WILL CONT THRU             
THE NIGHT AND KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE SOUNDS AND OBX.                            
MARINE: MSAS DEPICTS 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL PLAINS NOSING            
INTO OUR CWF AREA TONIGHT. AS HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION EXPECT                
STRONG CAA SURGE TO ENSUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MESOETA              
AND RUC SHOW STRONGEST CAA SURGE ARRIVING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY.             
IN LIGHT OF MODEL OUTPUT ALONG WITH SURROUNDING COASTAL/OFFSHORE                
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE OPTED TO HOIST SCA FLAG (FROM SCEC) FOR SOUNDS.             
WILL BUMP UP WINDS 5 KTS ON LOW/HIGH END AND KEEP THEM GOING AS WE              
ROLL INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST SURGE/NW FLOW SHOULD                
REMAIN ALONG SOUNDS AND NORTHERN LEG WATERS. SOUTHERN CWF AREA WILL             
REMAIN IN SCEC CONDITIONS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS PUNCH BEHIND CAA                 
PUSH. AS AFORMENTIONED CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH SLIDES EAST AND BUILDS               
OVER AREA DURING LATTER STAGES OF WEEKEND...WINDS/SEAS/SOUNDS TONE              
DOWN A BIT SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS P-GRAD RELAXES. VARIOUS WIND REPORTS            
ALONG THE OBX SHOW WINDS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE FROM THE NW. DSLN7               
BUOY REPORTING WNW WINDS 22G24 KTS...CAPE LOOKOUT HAS NW WIND 14G17             
KTS...FPSN7 WNW WINDS 18G20 KTS WITH 4 FOOT SEAS EVERY 10 SECONDS.              
EXTENDED:GFS/MRF/UKMET HAVE NEXT WEATHER AND OFFSHORE                           
SEA-HEIGHT-MAKER COMING IN THE FORM OF A MILLER TYPE "A" LOW. THIS              
LOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GULF                  
STATES...THEN TRANSFERS POWER-OF-ATTORNEY TO DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF             
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. AFTER SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF SC                   
WATERS...FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY IN LOW CONFIDENCE MODE.                     
AFTERALL...YESTERDAYS GFS/MRF MODEL RUN MADE NO MENTION OF A MILLER             
TYPE "A" LOW COMING TO FRUTION MUCH LESS A 969MB LOW BOMBING OFF                
CAPE COD NEXT THURSDAY MORNING AS LATEST RUNS ARE FORETELLING.                  
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED SHOW SOME SORT OF CONSISTENCY BEFORE                
BUYING INTO POSSIBLE MID WEEK/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW EVENT.                   
.MHX...SCA TONIGHT FOR SOUNDS INCLUDING COASTAL WATERS FROM S OF                
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE INLET.                                        
...FROST ADVISORY ALL CWA EXCEPT OUTER BANKS...                                 
GC/JO                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
822 PM CST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
.TONIGHT...                                                                     
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS                
POOL OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME                
DRYING NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA.             
RUC AND 18Z MESOETA SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 FOR THE             
RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING HAVE                
BEEN SLOW TO FALL OFF DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED             
IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS                
TIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE               
SOUTHWEST. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND               
WITH DRIER AIR REMAINING TO THE WEST MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WILL NEED              
TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MOST ZONES INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE                 
RANGE.                                                                          
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MVFR CEILINGS OVER MANITOBA AND                   
ONTARIO...WHICH HAVE BEEN SAGGING SOUTH THE PAST FEW HOURS. MESOETA             
AND RUC 1000-850MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BRING THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS             
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MORNING.                                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
DONAVON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
925 PM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
A FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING             
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  MOST OF THE DECKS HAVE              
BEEN ALONG THE COAST WITH KCHS AND KNBC CURRENTLY REPORTING BKN                 
CONDITIONS.  AM NOT EXPECTING THESE DECKS TO STICK AROUND VERY LONG             
WITH LOWER RH VALUES ADVECTING IN FROM THE W AND NW.                            
SFC PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY RISING AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER              
TO THE COAST.  HARD TO PICK OUT ANY COOL SURGE ON THE SFC OBS TO THE            
WEST AS MOST AREAS REPORTING WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT.  LATEST RUC                  
HOWEVER STILL SHOWING SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS OFFSHORE BY AROUND               
MIDNIGHT.  CURRENT COASTAL FORECAST HAS A HANDLE ON THIS INCREASE               
AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE INLAND OR COASTAL ZONE               
FORECASTS.                                                                      
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
PY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1010 AM EST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                      
SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH PATCH OF LOW CLDS OVER             
FAR SW PORTION OF CWA THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO               
BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY. GENERALLY VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA.            
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THIS AFTN AND PLAN TO                   
CONTINUE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SFC DEWPTS IN THE 40S OVER N AREAS AND             
50S OVER S AREAS. WINDS SHOULD BACK THIS AFTN TO MORE OF A NW                   
DIRECTION WITH APPROACH OF WEAK REINFORCING BNDRY THAT IS EXPECTED              
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE            
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                   
MARINE...NE WINDS ACROSS THE WTRS THIS MRNG XPCTD TO BACK TO THE N              
DURING THE AFTN. 12Z ETA-12 LOOKS TO BACK THE WINDS A BIT TOO FAST              
TO THE N AND GENERALLY PREFER THE 12Z RUC TIMING HWVR N WINDS SHOULD            
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE CURRENT                 
MARINE PKG LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES PLANNED.                          
CHS   68  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0                                          
SAV   68  44  66  40 /   0   0   0   0                                          
CHL   68  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0                                          
NBC   68  44  66  41 /   0   0   0   0                                          
RBW   67  42  63  38 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MHP   68  44  66  40 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
956 AM CST FRI NOV 1 2002                                                       
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER LOW CUT OFF            
AT BASE OF WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE.  SOURCE REGION FOR LOW LEVEL AIR             
IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA WHICH HAS UNDERGONE HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE            
PAST FEW DAYS WITH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING IN THIS REGION.  SO WEAK            
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACTUALLY WILL BE ADVECTING IN WARMER LOW               
LEVEL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA.  RUC AND                
MESOETA SUGGESTING 25-30 KNOT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST               
AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED THAT BEGINNING TO MIX            
DOWN SURFACE WINDS IN 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.  SO HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS             
SLIGHTLY IN UPDATED ZONES.  HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY             
IN SOUTHWEST AS IT NOW APPEARS LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL                 
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK IN THIS AREA AS SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IN NORTH                 
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES SOUTHEAST.  OTHERWISE ZONES IN FINE SHAPE AND            
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
425 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
RATHER QUIET TODAY AS FORECAST AREA IS GENERALLY BETWEEN TWO FLOW               
AREAS. BASED ON 00Z 9H TEMPS AND EXPECTED ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...              
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S MOST AREAS...PERHAPS UPPER 30S            
FROM LXL TO RPD. WINDS GENERALLY WEST...BEST GRADIENT IN THE                    
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                                                              
ONE WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING REGION STILL HAS A FEW MID CLOUDS IN EC             
MN INTO WISC. MEANWHILE SYSTEM TO OUR SW WILL REMAIN TO OUR SW                  
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN COULD BRUSH SC MN WITH SOME CLOUDS LATE             
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ALL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON              
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SW.                                 
NEITHER THE ETA NOR THE AVN HAVE DONE A VERY GOOD JOB WITH THIS                 
MORNINGS LOW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO INTO MANITOBA. NGM PRETTY              
GOOD AS IS THE RUC. COULD BE A FEW BKN CLOUDS FROM JMR TO RPD FROM              
TIME TO TIME TODAY. REST OF AREA WL BE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO BEING               
SANDWICHED BETWEEN SYSTEMS TO THE SW AND OUR NORTH.                             
NEXT CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE               
ARE MORE LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NE HALF OF FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE                
LACKING ATTM SO HAVE NOT ADDED FLURRIES BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO BE             
WATCHED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                              
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MRF AND            
UK MODELS HINT AT SOME MODEST WARMING LATE NEXT WEEK BUT ECMWF SHOWS            
A THERMAL RIBBON RIGHT OVER MN FRIDAY.                                          
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
TDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: ONSET OF PRECIPITATION TODAY & AMOUNT OF                
PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.                                           
FIRST CONCERN IS THE MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER               
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND             
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN QUESTION. LATEST RUC/MESOETA SOUNDING               
INFORMATION HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING              
BEFORE TURNING OVER THE LIGHT RAIN BY EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE                 
SATURATES. DO HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT BELIEVE THE             
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN LIQUID FORM BEFORE ANY PRECIPITATION                 
FALLS. WILL LET DAY SHIFT HANDLE THIS SITUATION WITH THE LATEST                 
LAPS/RUC DATA AS IT COMES IN...                                                 
FOR FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...LATEST RUC/ETA INDICATES THAT MOISTURE             
FIELDS WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN UP BY 18Z...THEREFORE DEVELOPED THE                 
LIGHT RAIN EARLIER FOR THIS AREA...WITH A GENERAL TREND OF THE RAIN             
SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.                                      
AS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...                                                 
TIME/CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER                 
MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY HOLD THROUGH            
12Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY                 
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR               
DRIZZLE AT BEST. ALSO THETA-E ADVECTION AND OMEGA FIELDS ARE NOT TOO            
IMPRESSIVE...AND ANY FOCUS FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS ON SUNDAY                 
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE LESSENS. THEREFORE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION              
TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS. A GENERAL ONE               
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE               
NEXT 48 HRS.                                                                    
FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE AREA            
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. MOISTURE RETURN IS STILL IN                
QUESTION AND MAIN SURFACE/UPPER AIR SUPPORT REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH               
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTROL THE               
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN               
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN...WITH A              
MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE WEEK.                                 
FINAL GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 315 AM.                                             
.SGF...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
946 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
12Z RAOB DATA DEPICTS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE               
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CAA NOTED AS WELL. THIS            
DRY AIR MASS WILL ENSURE A VERY DELIGHTFUL DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE              
AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. ONGOING ZONES HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO SEE NO REASON FOR ANY UPDATES.                  
MARINE...CAA OVER THE WARMER GULF WATERS ALONG WITH 3-4MB GRADIENT              
NOTED ON MSAS SFC ANALYSIS IS SUPPORTING SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE               
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. TRENDS FROM LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA              
SHOW THE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN             
THE ONGOING CAA AND SEEING THAT ITS A WEEKEND WITH MORE BOATERS ON              
THE WATERS PREFER TO KEEP SCEC FLAGS FLYING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...            
EVEN THOUGH WINDS/SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE CLOSER TO SHORE                
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                     
THANKS FOR COORD KMIA.                                                          
.TBW...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER              
       OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.                                        
MCMICHAEL                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LES TRENDS ALONG WITH                     
CLOUDS/TEMPS.                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM NW FLOW INTO THE               
GRT LAKES BTWN ERN NOAM TROF AND WRN CANADA AND PAC NW RDG. SHEARED             
SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM NE LK SUPERIOR TOWARD NRN LK HURON. NEXT                   
SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SHRTWV WAS WELL UPSTREAM OVER NW SASK. AT THE               
SFC...LO PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR GEORGIAN BAY WITH A WEAK COLD                    
FRONT/TROF EXTENDING TO THE WEST INTO SRN UPR MI. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER            
LK SUPERIOR WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -10C PRODUCING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO               
AROUND 16C WAS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LES DEVELOPMENT OVER MAINLY THE ERN            
HLF OF THE LAKE. 12Z KINL SNDG WITH A SHARP INVERSION NEAR 875 MB               
(4K FT) WAS MORE INDICATIVE OF THE AIRMASS INTO THE WRN LAKE AND HAS            
SUPPRESSED LES ACTIVITY WITH MAINLY JUST LAKE CLOUDS INTO WRN UPR               
MI. BLEND OF KAPX/CWPL AND ETA FCST SNDGS...MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF              
AIRMASS INTO THE ERN LAKE....WERE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES WITH                   
INVERSION HGTS NEAR 6K FT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS COMBINED                    
COMBINED WITH THE LONGER FETCH HAS ALLOWED LES TO INCREASE WITH SOME            
RETURNS NEAR 30 DBZ JUST EAST OF KMQT (INTO MARQUETTE) AND NORTH OF             
PICTURED ROCKS. RADAR TRENDS AND WORKSTATION ETA SUGGEST THAT NRLY              
FLOW WILL KEEP LES FOCUSED INTO FAR ERN MQT COUNTY AND ALGER COUNTY.            
HOWEVER...ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND CBL DEPTH ALONG WITH                    
SHIFTING BAND POSITION SHOULD LIMIT ANY LCL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND             
AN INCH.                                                                        
LAKE CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER SRN UPR MI WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO            
RELATIVELY STRONG INVERSION. WHILE DRYING TREND CONSISTENT WITH                 
EXPANDING CLEAR AREA OVER WRN LAKE MAY BRING SOME BREAKS IN THE                 
CLOUD DECK...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN. TEMP FCST WAS              
GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS NEEDED.                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
930 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A STRATUS DECK DRIFTING OVER THE               
NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF MN CWFA. SOME EROSION IS BEING SEEN ALONG THE             
NORTH SHORE OF LS. HOWEVER...BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RIDING                
INTO THE FA AHEAD OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN.            
LATEST RUC KEEPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA. CURRENT FORECAST             
HAS THIS COVERED. SFC TEMPS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN               
MOS AND FORECAST VALUES AND WILL BUMP THEM UP WHERE NEEDED.                     
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
GSF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1020 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                      
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT            
LAKES REGION THIS MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE, SURFACE LOW WAS                     
CENTERED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  RADARS SHOWING LAKE BANDS             
MOVING MORE TO THE EAST, AND RETURNS ARE WEAKENING.  THIS FITS WITH             
MODELS TRENDS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.  MAIN UPDATE WAS TO               
ADD SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND TWEAK             
SNOW AMOUNTS A TAD. RAM                                                         
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW STRECHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BGM AREA             
AND INTO OUR SE NY COUNTIES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BAND                
WILL BEGIN TO PULL NORTH AGAIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN RESPONSE TO             
BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE BAND IS FORECAST TO            
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY NORTHWARD DURING THE MORNING...THROUGH THE                  
SYR/UCA AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY                
AROUND MID-MORNING. THE BAND IS THEN PROGGED TO BE NORTH OF OUR CWA             
AROUND NOON TODAY.                                                              
AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT                 
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF GENERAL SYNOPTIC SNOW              
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE AVN HAS             
THE BEST CHC FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW IS              
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ETA IS SIMIALAR BUT A TAD WEAKER WITH THE            
LOW. THEN WE DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
BAND. THE BAND IS PROGGED TO AGAIN SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE THIS                    
EVENING...SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA                        
COUNTY...THEN QUICKLY TO THE SYR/UCA CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT...THEN FINALLY TO A MULTI-BAND SCENERIO ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN             
ABOUT 3 AM AND 6 AM.                                                            
THERE ARE SEVERAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LES                      
ACCUMULATION. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THE BAND IS TRANSITIONING AND              
DOES NOT REMAIN ALONG ANY ONE PATH FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME.            
ALSO, THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IS VERY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.                
AND, WITH A PERIOD OF MULTI-BAND LES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, USUALLY                
NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SCENERIO. WITH ALL THE ABOVE IN                 
MIND...AND ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY...WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY LES                 
ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE.                                                   
SUNDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ONCE                
AGAIN AND RATHER QUICKLY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING SURFACE                        
RIDGE...SYR/UCA AROUND 6 AM...NORTHERN ONEIDA AROUND 8 AM...THEN OUT            
OF OUR CWA. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS            
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE                    
MULTI-BANDS SHIFT NORTH. OTHERWISE, WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING, EXPECT             
THAT THE AREA WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVENING              
BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP WITH APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD COME             
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS, AND LAST            
INTO MONDAY MORNING.  JML                                                       
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
933 AM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
ZFP: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH SEEN IN               
THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. REGION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUD FREE                
WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AROUND 60. WORKSTATION ETA SHOWING                
NORTH WINDS CONTINUING BUT DROPPING TO 5 TO 10 MPH AROUND 18Z. THIS             
AGREES TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC. SO WILL UPDATE TO RAISE THE                
TEMPERATURES INLAND TO AROUND 60 AND WILL TWEAK THE WINDS DOWN A BIT.           
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
CWF:  WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO DUE N...ALLOWING FOR SOME RESPONSE              
IN THE SEAS AT FPSN7.  LAST OBS FOR SEAS SHOWED A FRISKY 5 FT EVERY             
5 SEC...BUT THAT WAS 12Z.  IN OFFSHORE FLOW...NOT TO MENTION ABSENCE            
OF MORE RECENT OB...WILL JUST INITIALIZE WITH A SOLID 4 FT W/IN 20              
NM AND ADD WORDING FOR LOWER SEAS NEAR SHORE.  CURRENT SURGE IN                 
WINDS APPEARS SHORT LIVED AND WILL BACK NW AGAIN BY LATE                        
AFTERNOON...AND KNOCK DOWN SEAS ACCORDINGLY...NOT A REAL CHANGE FROM            
GOING CWF.  WILL NOT MESS WITH THE OUT PERIODS AT THIS TIME.                    
FCSTID = 07                                                                     
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
KILM  60 35 60 43 /  00 00 00 30                                                
KLBT  59 31 58 41 /  00 00 00 30                                                
KFLO  61 33 60 42 /  00 00 00 30                                                
KMYR  60 40 61 43 /  00 00 00 30                                                
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
PUBLIC: HAWKINS                                                                 
MARINE: RAS                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
200 PM MST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY CENTRAL MTNS...AND              
WINDS FOR MTN AREAS IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM...                                
CURRENTLY...CLOSED LOW ACROSS WRN WY/ERN ID EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY             
ESE ACROSS STATE TONIGHT.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING ONGOING ACROSS SRN                
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA WHERE INSTABILITIES ALONG EDGE LEADING EDGE OF            
500 MB COLD POOL HAVE BEEN INCREASING.  MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS                 
BROKEN OUT ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF RATON RIDGE AND ALONG THE PALMER               
DVD...WHILE STILL HOLDING IN ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.            
SFC TEMPS AT KTAD JUMPED TO 61 DEGREES ONCE DOWNSLOPE KICKED                    
IN...SO COLD AIRMASS IS FAIRLY SHALLOW.  FOR TONIGHT...AS UPPER                 
LOW MOVES ACROSS NRN CO...A BRIEF SHOT OF DYNAMICS/INSTABILITY AND              
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY BUT BRIEF SNOWS                 
ACROSS THE SAWATCH/SOUTHERN MOSQUITO RANGES THIS EVENING.  MODELS               
DIFFER IN DEPTH AND PERSISTENCE OF MOISTURE ACROSS AREA WITH 12Z                
MESO-ETA THE MOISTEST...AND RUC/AVN SHOWING STRONG DRYING AT 500 MB             
MOVING IN BY MIDNIGHT.  JUDGING BY WV PICS/UPSTREAM RAOBS...TEND TO             
FAVOR THE DRIER SOLUTIONS.  EVEN WITH ETA SOLUTION...RUN OF SNOW                
MODEL YIELDED AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR CEN MTN AREAS...STILL               
BELOW ADVSY CRITERIA AS OROGRAPHICS NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE.  WILD               
CARD IS INSTABILITY THOUGH...AS QUICK ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR UNDER           
TSN. HOWEVER..THIS SHUD BE FAIRLY SPOTTY AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE            
ANY WINTER WX ADVSYS.  AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...SE PLAINS WILL SEE             
ANOTHER FROPA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...AND ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT                 
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS.  MOISTURE IS                  
SHALLOWER THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...SO AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN            
THE WAY OF ACCUMS FOR THE WETS/SRN SANGRES...ESP AS UPSLOPE                     
COMPONENT NOT ALL THAT GREAT.                                                   
OTHER CHALLENGE WILL BE MTN TOP WINDS.  MESO-ETA INDICATING WINDS               
JUST ABOVE SFC WILL BE AROUND 30-40KTS ACROSS MTN AREAS...AND WITH              
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SYSTEM...EXPECT SOME NR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER           
MTN RAWS SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MTN TOP INVERSION ISN'T                     
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.  MM5 DOES DEVELOP A WEAK INVERSION TOWARDS 12Z             
WITH SOME 50 KT WINDS DOWN TO 600 MB (HOWEVER IT IS USUALLY A BIT TO            
STRONG WITH WINDS). OVERALL...WILL BEEF UP WINDS OVER MTNS TONIGHT...           
BUT THINK THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.  STRONGEST                 
WINDS SHOULD BE ALONG SRN SECTIONS OF CWA...MAINLY HIGHER PEAKS WEST            
OF KTAD/WALSENBURG.                                                             
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT IN WAKE OF PASSING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...AND                 
TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND SOME AS STRATUS BREAKS BY AFTN...AND BREEZY                
NRLY WINDS HELP MIX OUT LOWER TROP. HAVE HELD ON TO SOME EARLY                  
MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS DYNAMICS STILL EXITING AREA...                
HOWEVER MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD           
BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIGHT. TEMPS IN GRIDS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE...AND            
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.  SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS IN FAIRLY                
GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING WEST COAST TROUGH INTO SRN AZ...AS NRN                  
STREAM TROF MOVES INTO NRN US ROCKIES.  FCST AREA IS IN BETWEEN                 
SYSTEMS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY                
NIGHT.  SFC DEW POINTS VERY DRY...AND WITH PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR               
SKIES EARLY SUN NIGHT...THINK TEMPS COULD GET QUITE COLD...ESP IN               
SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND THE COLD POCKETS LIKE KPUB AND KLAA.  HAVE                
TWEAKED DOWN LOW TEMPS IN GRIDS.                                                
UPPER TROUGH PASSES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER                  
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW CO MON AFTN.   MODELS DIFFER QUITE A                   
BIT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  ETA/MESO-ETA            
CONFINE MOISTURE TO MID AND HIGH LEVELS...WHILE AVN IS MUCH MOISTER.            
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AVN IS PROBABLY OVERDOING THE MOISTURE AS              
TENDS TO BE ITS BIAS.  GRIDS HAVE 20 POPS FOR MTN AREAS AND                     
SRN BORDER AREAS FOR MONDAY...AND WITH UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODELS             
AM RELUCTANT TO PULL POPS OUT JUST YET.  WILL GIVE IT ONE MORE                  
MODEL RUN. APPEARS SRN SECTIONS MAY HAVE BEST/YET LOW/ POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME LIGHT PCPN.                                                                
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER FCST AREA TUES AND WED WITH                 
A COUPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD                
REBOUND SOME BOTH DAYS.  GFS SHIFTS UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA FOR                   
THURSDAY...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS FCST                   
AREA. THEN FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A ZONAL PATTERN WITH NEXT TROUGH TO              
AFFECT AREA FRI NIGHT/SAT.  WILL OPT TO KEEP DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW BUT A            
LITTLE COOLER.                                                                  
KT                                                                              
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
249 PM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES              
TONIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE.       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT BRISK WINDS AND      
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE COLD SIDE. WEAK LOW       
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.           
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AS THIS LOW CROSSES THE STATE.           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
200PM SURFACE CHART SHOWS 993MB LOW JUST ENTERING THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE       
WITH STRONG NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE STATE OF MAINE. SAT IMG IN       
COMBINATION WITH RADAR INDICATES THAT WRAP AROUND THIS LOW EXTENDS ACROSS       
THE GASPESIE PENINSULA INTO EAST CENTRAL MAINE. THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW HAS       
JUST MOVED SOUTH OF CARIBOU.                                                    
RUC MODEL SLOWLY MOVES GULF LOW EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH IT       
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EASTERN MAINE INTO NEW             
BRUNSWICK LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THIS LOW MOVES          
RAPIDLY EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY      
THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS SKIES WILL CLEAR     
EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING WILL LEAVE MINOR                  
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL WAIT TO ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE ON HOW HARD TO HIT THE      
SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING.                                       
THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER TEMPERATURES DROP TO RECORD LOWS FOR           
TONIGHT. CAR RECORD IS 16F...HUL IS 12F...AND BGR IS 19F. FWC/MAV NUMBERS       
ARE BELOW THESE RECORDS WITH THE ETA JUST ABOVE THE RECORDS. IF WINDS REMAIN    
UP AND IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS IT MAY BE         
TOUGH TO MAKE IT AS LOW AS FWC/MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ON THE OTHER HAND         
FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FALL OVER NORTHERN SECTION.     
HOWEVER...FEEL WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN MAINE TO       
KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE RECORDS AND ABOVE THE MAV/FWC GUIDANCE.        
WITH THAT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA NUMBERS AND GO WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE      
RECORDS. HOWEVER ANYWAY YOU LOOK AT IT...IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT ACROSS         
EASTERN MAINE.                                                                  
SUNDAY WILL START OUT SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTH BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS      
THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH NOT COMPLETELY THROUGH YET...CLOUDS WILL          
QUICKLY REDEVELOP AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISE TO SEE A FLURRY AROUND NOONTIME.     
HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE BY AFTERNOON AND WITH DRIER       
AIR MOVING IN EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH ALL THAT     
WILL PROBABLY GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO COVER THE DAY OVER NORTHERN        
MAINE. DOWNGLIDE WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND           
DOWNEAST SECTIONS.                                                              
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY     
CLEARS SKIES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD EARLY MONDAY AND CLOUDS WILL BE      
ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING    
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
EXTENDED...                                                                     
USE THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE MRF FOR PARTICULARS FOR THE            
EXTENDED. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT            
PROVIDING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE FEATURE FORECASTED TO BE QUITE     
WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE SO EXPECT JUST LIGHT     
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS NEW         
ENGLAND ON TUE BUT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS POLAR VORTEX          
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. ON WEDNESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH PASSES       
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES REMAINING WELL TO OUR SOUTH BUT THIS ALLOWS     
ANOTHER VERY STRONG FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY.    
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE EARLY THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE        
NORTH AND A MIX FOR DOWNEAST. IF THE MEDIUM MODELS ARE RIGHT...AFTER THIS       
FRONT PASSES THE POLAR VORTEX FINALLY LIFTS BACK ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE        
AS A BROAD RIDGE STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS MEANS A RETURN      
TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND. AS THE WARM AIR RETURNS OVER THE      
STATE...EXCEPT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE START OF      
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
COASTAL WATERS...WITH TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP GALE UP          
THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.       
.CAR...GALE.                                                                    
FOSTER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
331 PM EST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGES AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TYPING.  SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER PARTS OF             
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO.  AREA RADARS SHOWING NORTHERN LAKE BAND BECOMING             
MOVE WEST TO EAST, AND ERIE BAND CONTINUING TO SEND PATCHES OF SNOW             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                
FOR TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS                 
SUNDAY.  UPPER BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.                           
NEXT PRECIPITATION "MAKER" COMING INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY                    
MORNING.  SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.               
THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.              
THEN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO              
WARM ENOUGH SO THAT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS                
UNTIL ENDING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.                                             
AFTER THAT, SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH               
WEDNESDAY.  COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH, THAN WEDENSDAY'S              
TROUGH, MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  SO, CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW FOR EACH                
DAY.  RAM                                                                       
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1047 AM CST SAT NOV 2 2002                                                      
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING.  SURFACE ANALYSIS            
FROM 16Z SHOWING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA             
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  MID CLOUD BEGINNING TO SPREAD             
INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  RUC INDICATING 925 HPA WINDS ONLY IN THE 5 TO            
10 KNOT RANGE AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN                 
LIGHT THROUGHOUT AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT SNOW             
COVER HAS DISSIPATED TO LARGE DEGREE ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA WITH            
JUST FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SISSETON HILLS REGION HANGING ON TO              
ANY SNOW COVER.  BEST SNOW COVER STILL WEST OF MISSOURI RIVER.                  
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING IN KPIR SHOWING A BIT                 
SHARPER OF DIURNAL RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURE.  WILL JUST INCREASE                 
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON A FEW DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHWEST.                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
NDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd