SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
225 AM MST FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY FEED IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.            
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL                
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ONCE AGAIN IGNITE                    
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST             
ON SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED. A                
SLIGHTLY WETTER MONSOON PATTERN WILL REDEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...               
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD NOT BE AS ACTIVE AS THE PAST TWO WEEKS.                      
DISCUSSION...IT'S NEAT TO SEE ALMOST EVERY RIVERBED IN TUCSON FULL              
OF WATER, BUT THIS IS GETTING A LITTLE OLD. WE'VE BEEN VERY LUCKY               
NOT TO HAVE FATALITIES AFTER THE DEGREE OF FLASH FLOODING WE'VE SEEN            
THIS WEEK. DRY AIR DID WORK INTO THE MID LEVELS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL              
AZ LAST EVENING, BUT NOW MOISTURE IS SPREADING BACK WESTWARD WITH               
YUMA'S DEWPOINT UP 11F IN THE PAST HOUR. THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MADE            
LITTLE DIFFERENCE LATE YESTERDAY, ANYWAY, AS VERY WET STORMS FIRED              
OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS. THAT PRETTY MUCH TELLS THE STORY: WE NEED             
THE LOW LEVELS TO DRY OUT A LOT MORE BEFORE WE GET OUT OF THIS.                 
UNFORTUNATELY THERE'S ANOTHER MATCH TO THROW ON THE POWERKEG, THIS              
TIME IN THE FORM OF A SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE BAJA               
COAST. MODELS HAVE COMPLETELY MISSED THIS IMPORTANT FEATURE.                    
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTING INTO UT TOUCHED             
OFF STORMS IN NW AZ OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN WAVE LOOKS MORE POTENT              
AND IS INDUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.             
I'M ALSO NERVOUS ABOUT THE RUC'S IDEA OF HAVING  NORTH AZ IN THE                
RIGHT-REAR QUAD OF A 60KT UPPER LEVEL JETLET. WITH PRECIP WATERS                
STILL IN THE 1.5+" RANGE AND A WARM-CORE VORT HEADING THIS WAY, IT              
LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE'S GOING TO GET DUMPED ON AGAIN PER NCEP QPFERD               
DISCUSSION. BEST THREAT IS S AND E OF TUCSON WHERE UPPER DIVERGENCE             
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AND MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST, BUT SINCE TUCSON              
IS SO SATURATED, WE'LL ADD HEIGHTENED WORDING HERE AS WELL. WE'LL               
ALSO RAISE POPS 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.                                 
WE'VE BEEN SAYING FOR DAYS NOW THAT DRYING IS COMING. THIS TIME,                
THOUGH, IT LOOKS A A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN AS THE VARIOUS VORT MAXES              
LIFT OUT AND INDUCE STRONGER, DRIER FLOW FROM THE WEST. IN THAT                 
REGARD, PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS FINE. MAY TRY TO DOWNPLAY ACTIVITY              
ON SUNDAY BEFORE WEAK 500MB ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS TO OUR            
EAST AND RATCHETS UP ACTIVITY A BIT. PYTLAK                                     
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
 az                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
249 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
TNGT/SAT: 19Z/16 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM             
KGCK-KSPD-KCOS-KCAG WITH "TRUE" COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS                   
THROUGH SOUTHERN WY INTO ID.  KPUB 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING                 
ABOUT 8000 KT DEEP NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW.  TWO MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT              
WILL BE MINOR SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO AND                 
UPSLOPE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT                    
PLAINS.  LATEST RUC/ETA HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING WESTERN CO                 
SHORTWAVE BY TAKING IT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST.  CURRENT MANUAL                  
PROJECTION TAKE IT THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO TONIGHT.  LATEST              
REGIONAL 88D/LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWED WIDELY                          
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BREAKING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  GREATEST COVERAGE...SO FAR...IS IN UPPER                  
HUERFANO AND UPPER PURGATOIRE RIVER BASINS(74/75).  MOISTURE                    
CERTAINLY NOT A PROBLEM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE              
MID 50S/MID 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH                    
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EVENING UPSLOPE EASTERLY...              
PLAN TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING FOR SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET MOUNTAINS               
INCLUDING ZONES 74/75 TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED/                  
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE PLAINS.  WILL NOT CARRY A "TIMER" ON                  
PRECIPITATION WORDING FROM SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS.                 
SHRA/TSRA MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH EXPECTED SHORTWAVE...                
ALBEIT WEAK...MIGRATING THROUGH CWA.  IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...             
UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY...AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OF            
DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS.  WOULDN'T BE SUPRISED TO SEE STRATUS                   
POSSIBLY FORM IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT                  
WIDESPREAD FOG...SO WILL NOT MENTION.  LOWER TROP FLOW EXPECTED TO              
GO MORE SOUTHERLY ON SAT WITH PLENTY OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN             
PLACE. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL             
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.  PLAN TO MAINTAIN LOW              
"CHANCE" POPS AND WORDING IN CURRENT ZFP.  DAY 2 QPF HAS .25-.50"               
PRECIPITATION DRAWN GENERALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.                      
SAT NGT/SUN: 500MB HEIGHT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS A SERIES OF            
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EJECT ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM DEEPENING              
LONGWAVE ALONG WEST COAST.  SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LESS AND            
LESS WITH THE QUALITY OF DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING AND MID-LEVEL             
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL WIDELY                  
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ON SUN.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES            
TO INCREASE BACK INTO SUMMERTIME READINGS.                                      
EXTENDED(MON-WED): LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE            
WEST COAST ON MON WITH ANTICYCLONE TAKING SHAPE IN THE HEARTLAND OF             
U.S.  STILL SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GENERATE MAINLY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS.  PLAN TO             
LEAVE GENERIC "CHANCE" WORDING IN FOR MON.  MRF CONTINUES TO HAVE               
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON BUILDING LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE INTO             
CO/KS ON TUE-WED. 700MB TEMPERATURES STILL PROGD TO BE +16-20 C.                
MRF IN PAST CASE SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE 700-300MB MEAN RH AND               
MAY BE CONTINUING THIS PRACTICE.  BELOW 500MB...MEAN RH EXPECTED TO             
RANGE FROM 10-20%. FEEL THREAT IS SO LOW ITS TOO EARLY TO MENTION AND           
WILL WAIT UNTIL TUE-WED FORECAST GETS INTO THE SHORT RANGE TO FINE              
TUNE. STILL COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA IN MOUNTAINS...BUT TOO           
FAR TO MENTION. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TUE-WED SHOULD BE SUMMERTIME               
HEAT AND A RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEG READINGS IN FAVORED AREAS                     
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS.                                                          
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGJT 161831  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1005 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED MORE THAN                 
15 MI OFFSHORE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN NEXT 6 HRS. MODIFIED SOUNDING            
NUMBERS...LI OF -7...CAPE 3000 J/KG. GIVEN RATHER ACTIVE AREA OF                
CONVECTION OFFSHORE LEADS ME TO INCREASE POPS FOR TODAY. IN                     
ADDITION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA             
OVER N FL. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL AT THIS TIME             
AND WEAKENS IT BY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA KEEPS THIS FEATURE                
PRESENT THROUGH 00Z. IN ANY CASE...WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE...AND E               
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SOUNDING PARAMETERS...PREFER 10 PERCENT POP                
INCREASE ACROSS FL CWA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                       
ARS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 161351  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
215 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
BROAD RIDGE OVER ERN AND SRN U.S. IN PLACE ALOFT WHILE ACTIVE JET               
STREAM REMAINS OVER THE NRN U.S.  WVAPOR SHOWS SOME MID/HIGH MSTR               
OVER LOWER OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS...AND ALSO SEEN ON               
H7 ANALYSIS. IN SHORT TERM...WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS             
PTNS OF THE FA. LAPS AND RUC SOUNDING FCSTS SHOW NO CAP THIS AFTN               
WITH K-INDICES OVER 20...CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG. ALSO SEEN IS A WEAK              
H7 SHEAR ZONE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH               
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING. TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY                 
CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AS MOST            
AREAS WILL BE ABOVE 1 MILE MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                   
IN TERMS OF THE MODELS...ETA AND NGM ON SAME TRACK...WITH THE AVN               
IN DISAGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SPEED OF WEEKEND SYSTEM. WILL GO              
WITH THE ETA/NGM. SATURDAY SHOULD BE HUMID BUT DRY FOR THE MOST                 
PART. MID-LVL DRYING REFLECTED IN LOWERING K-INDICES AND NIL UPPER              
SUPPORT WILL CAP US OFF AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL SETTLE SLOWLY                 
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY                   
MORNING. MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS THAT DRIFT SOUTH BY AFTERNOON                
THUS WE WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY. GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE. WILL                 
INTRODUCE A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN AND               
NORTHEAST AREAS. H8/H3 THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST WHAT CONVECTION THAT             
MAY BE ASSOC WITH FRONT TO OUR NORTH MIGHT START TO DRIFT SE...WHILE            
BEING AIDED BY S/WV FCST TO MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO                
VALLEY. AS FRONT GETS SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON SUNDAY...HIGHER MSTR                   
CONTENT IN GREATER DEPTH EXPECTED WHILE REMAINING RATHER UNSTABLE.              
WILL INTRODUCE LOW POP FOR MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY. IN THE                         
EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA AND TREND WORDING               
TOWARD AFTERNOON. MRF MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH MSTR...BUT DO                  
EXPECT UPPER HIGH TO RETREAT ON WESTWARD...WITH LAYER MEAN RH                   
REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH. ALSO FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP INVOF              
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWFA.                                                  
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
NOLES                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KPAH 161915  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
A SLOW MOVING FNT XTNDS FROM SSM ACRS NRN LK MICHIGAN TO MKE AND ON             
TO ERN IA. THIS FNT CONT TO MOV SE INTO LOWER MI. -RA AND -TSRA                 
ASSOC WITH OVRRNG OF THIS FNT. DWPNTS REMAIN HI IN THE 60S ACRS                 
THE FA. SAT IR SHOW SOME CLRG OVR MN AND NRN WI ATTM THIS IS ASSOC              
WITH A THERMAL RIDGE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
THE RIDGE IS MOVG E AT 10KTS AND HAD REACHED WRN UP BY 02Z AND WILL             
WORK ITS WAY ACRS FA TNGT. SATURATED SOIL WILL HELP KEEP DWPNTS UP              
TNGT. WITH SOME CLRG TNGT...LGT WNDS...AND HI DWPNTS...XPCT TO SEE              
FOG FORMING ARND THE CNTRL AND ERN PART OF FA TNGT. ANOTHER SHRTWV              
MOVG E OUT OF IA WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVR SRN AND ERN UP UNTIL            
06Z.  BY SR...BOTH ETA AND RUC SHOW THE THERMAL RIDGE SE OF FA AND              
XPCT TO SEE SHRA OUT OF THE FA BY SR. THE SHRTWV WILL BE OVR NRN                
LAKE MICHIGAN BY SR...SO EXPECT A FEW CLDS OVR SRN AND ERN COUNTIES             
OF FA TNGT.                                                                     
WITH DRYER AIR AND MORE STABILITY ACRS AREA ON SAT...XPCT PARTY                 
SUNNY SKIES.                                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 170357  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE                  
SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO IA. A STRENGTHENING 300MB            
JET STREAK WILL PUSH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE LOW ALONG                      
QUICKLY...BUT WAVE THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE IT            
TO BE SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.                                          
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL MAKE FOR A STICKY             
AND UNSTABLE DAY TODAY. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GRB HAD OVER 2000            
J/KG CAPE. 03Z MESOETA BRINGS CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG INTO MENOMINEE              
COUNTY BY 00Z SATURDAY. 12Z RUC BRING BOUNDARY LAYER LIS APPROACHING            
-5C TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY 00Z.                                             
GREATEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WONT REACH THE AREA             
UNTIL TONIGHT. BUT WITH DECENT HEATING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE IN THE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BIG               
CONCERN IS FOR RAINFALL TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONE HOUR FLASH            
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THAT WERE DRENCHED EARLIER IN          
THE WEEK IS BELOW AN INCH... 0.8" FOR IRON AND 0.9" FOR DICKINSON               
AND MENOMINEE.                                                                  
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS ARE NECESSARY...ALSO WITH CLOUD COVER.              
WIND FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                   
.MQT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MIZ010>012.                                
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 161453  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ... CORRECTED WARNING SECTION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
MAIN FOCUS FOR TDY IS THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PCPN W/ THE SYSTEM             
MOVG THRU THE CNTRL U.S. ATTM.                                                  
RGNL RADAR/SAT PICS SHOW THE LINE TO XTND FM SRN ONT TO BRD TO                  
FSD...ROUGHLY SPEAKING THT IS. SINCE IT DVLPD...PCPN HAS BEEN LINING            
UP VRY WELL W/ THE H85 THTE AXIS. LATEST RUC IS CONSISTENT W/ THE               
00Z ETA IN BRINGING THAT AXIS TO FAR WRN U.P. ARND 12Z.                         
HOWEVER...WHAT IS A FAIRLY SOLID BAND OF HIGH THTE ATTM IS PROGGED              
TO TO SORT OF SHEAR APART AS THE NRN PIECE OF ENERGY RACES THRU                 
CANADA TDY...PUSHING NRN PORTION OF FNT RIGHT ALG. A SECOND S/WV                
...SEEN ON THE PROFILER DATA/EVE PLOTS IS HANGING BACK OVR ERN                  
NEBRASKA. ETA (AND TO LESSER EXTENT THE NGM) PICK UP ON THIS QUITE              
NICELY. NGM FADES IT OUT SOMEWHAT...BUT ETA HOLDS ONTO IT AS IT                 
SLOWLY LIFTS TWD THE GREAT LAKES RGN.                                           
INITIALLY PREFERED THE ETA SOLN FOR IT/S CONSISTENCY OVR TIME...BUT             
THE NGM SHOWS STRONG FEATURES AS WELL (INCLUDING FVRBL JET DYNAMICS).           
UNSETTLED WX ACRS THE FA TDY AND TNT WL POSE A PROBLEM ACRS THE                 
SOUTHWEST. PW VALUE ARE PROGGED TO BE VERY HIGH PHPS NEARLY AS HIGH             
AS TWO INCHES...AND POSSIBILTIY OF TRAINING ECHOS EXISTS.                       
THUS...CONSIDERING THE PCPN THAT FELL ERLIER THIS WEEK OVR DICKINSON            
...IRON AND THE LOW FFG VALUES FM DICKINSON TO MENOMINEE WL GO W/ A             
FFA FOR THESE THREE COUNTIES AND STRESS THE SRN PORTIONS. FURTHER               
EAST...CHCS OF PCPN BTR TNT. PER COORD W/ APX WL BUMP POPS IN ERN               
CNTYS INTO LOW LIKELY CATEGORY.                                                 
ONCE THE FNT PASSES...DRIER...COLR AIR WL QCKLY ARRIVE. OTHR THAN A             
LINGERING MORG SHRW IN THE FAR EAST LUKG FOR A RAINFREE...SUNNIER               
DAY.                                                                            
STEAMY CONDITIONS TO CONT THRU TDY W/ DWPTS GNRLY FROM THE MID 60S              
TO MID 70S. CRNTLY FCST HIGHS ARE GNRLY FINE. LOWS FOR TNT NEED A               
BOOST IN THE ERN SXNS. TEMPS TMRW SHD SHOW A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT               
FROM WEST TO EAST. H85 TEMPS SHOW A STG GRADIENT ACRS THE FA BY LATE            
IN THE DAY SUNDAY. HELPING COLR TEMPS ALONG WL BE WNDS OFF LAKE                 
SUPER.                                                                          
RMDR OF FCST UNCHANGED.  NEW ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE FLOPPED BACK                   
SLIGHTLY W/ IT/S SUNDAY SOLN FROM YESTERDAY... BUT 72 HR AVN DOES               
SHOW AN AREA OF Q-VEC CONVERGENCE.                                              
.MQT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR MIZ010>012.                                
DESROSIERS                                                                      
 mi                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS                
ALONG THIS LINE AND WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH                    
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MSAS STILL SHOWING LI'S TO -5 AHEAD OF FRONT...            
AND BOTH RUC AND ETA INDICATING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT                   
UNSTABLE THERE. HOWEVER BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF              
WISCONSIN CWA. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM IOWA VORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO           
PASS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS            
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER            
FOR ONCE.                                                                       
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH               
MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE TO                
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...VORT SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN            
MANITOBA TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS             
OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN             
STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HERE.                         
PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE               
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG NORTH SHORE TO SUW.                                 
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
TAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 161601  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
RAINFALL IN NWRN IA ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVG NEDDY EDDY IN FAR                 
WESTERN IA. SLOW MOVING FRONT FROM WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO              
NWRN IA. FRONT IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO UPPER WINDS IN NRN TIER OF                 
STATES...BUT STILL SOME 2-3 MB RISES IN 3 HOURS OVER THE DKTS. THUS             
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ALONG SLOWLY. AS OF 16Z IT WAS ALMOST              
UPON MSP. LATES RUC TAKES FRONT THROUGH EAU AND AEL LATE AFTERNOON.             
SEEMS REASONABLE.  LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE ALONG FNT...              
THEN HEAVIER RAIN IN NWRN IA.                                                   
HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN FOR LATER TODAY IN OUR SERN AREA...FROM AEL             
TO EAU...AND AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH THE 3 INCH AMOUNTS TYPICAL OF THE             
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. FORTUNATELY 12Z UPPER AIR ANLYS SHOWS 40 KNOTS            
AT 25H FROM LBF TO MSP...WITH WEAKER SPEEDS FARTHER SE WHERE THE                
BEST DIFFLUENCE IS. SHORT WAVE IN SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE EWD AND                
HELP DRAG FASTER FLO A TAD FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS SOME 2 OR 3              
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM AEL TO EAU BUT WL HAVE TO PAY CLOSE                  
ATTENTION TO PROFILERS AND VAD WIND PROFILES FOR SIGNS THE UPPER                
WINDS MIGHT BE WEAKER THAN EXPECTED.                                            
COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE ISOLATED PULSE SVR STORMS AS WELL.                       
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KRAUSE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 160851  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
700 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
THE PRECIPITATION OVR E KS THAT IS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MO                  
CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE SINCE 5 PM.               
LATEST RADAR IN EASTERN KS HAS THE SAME INDICATION WITH THE MAIN AXIS           
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC FRONT IN N KS/SW NE/S IA. ALSO WND             
PROFILES AND SATELLITE INFO SHOWING IF ANY PRECIPITATION FORMS IN C             
KS WILL LIKELY MOVE S/SE INTO OK. 21Z RUC STILL HAS 85 DP LOW OVR THE           
OZARKS AND CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                 
WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR ALL OF CWA/EXCEPT SC MO... BUT WILL DROP             
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL MO THIS EVENING.                        
NO OTHER CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.                                  
TAGGART                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KSGF 162020 AMD  mo                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
330 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
...FORECAST PROBLEMS INVOLVE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP CHANCES AND THEREFORE           
TEMPS...                                                                        
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW IN MN SWWD INTO         
NERN CO TO S OF THEDFORD TO NEAR BFF...ALTHO NUMEROUS OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARIES MAKE IT A TRICK TO FIND. CONVECTION ONGOING AT THIS TIME             
ACROSS THE CWA SO WILL MAKE THIS BRIEF. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS             
CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN HOOKER AND MCPHERSON COUNTIES ATTM WHICH SHOULD BE         
THE TREND BASED ON 06Z RUC PROGS AT 850 MB.                                     
PICKING A MODEL OF CHOICE IS DIFFICULT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF                   
CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 00Z RUNS. ETA HAS            
DONE A DECENT JOB IN THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS SO WILL USE A BLEND OF THE         
MODELS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE ETA FOR LOW LEVEL RESOLUTION. AT                 
06Z...THE NGM SFC PATTERN WAS THE CLOSEST...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC         
HIGH IN MT WAS UNDERDONE. AVN LOOKED BETTER FOR THAT. FOR UPPER                 
FEATURES...ALL ARE NOT DOING TOO BAD WITH FILLING UPPER LOW IN SC               
CANADA...BUT ARE LIKELY TOO FAR N WITH NEXT SYSTEM COMING INTO OREGON           
AT 06Z.                                                                         
700-500 MB Q VECTOR PROGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA             
DURING THE DAY...BUT NERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL MAKE IT HARD TO CLEAR           
OUT CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP THRU THE MORNING ON RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE          
SFC. FOLLOWING RUC/MESOETA FOR THE 1ST PERIOD WOULD HAVE CLOUDS AROUND          
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CLEARING IN THE NWRN CWA BY MID AFTERNOON            
THEN WORKING SEWD ITO THE EVENING. SRN PART OF CWA WILL LIKELY GO               
SCT-BKN FOR A TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVE...BUT AS WINDS TURN E/SE               
OVERNIGHT AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...WILL LIKELY SEE          
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL LATE         
TONIGHT WHEN THE MESOETA PROGS A SHORT WAVE TO TOP THE FLAT RIDGE INTO          
NRN NEBR BY 12Z SAT. SFC FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN CENTRAL KS BUT              
WINDS TO THE N WILL HAVE UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION          
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE FAR WRN PART OF THE STATE. SO WILL INCLUDE         
SLIGHT POPS FOR TONIGHT THERE AND NC FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.            
SCT/WDLY WORDING WILL LIKELY BE NEED MOST AREAS THIS MORNIG TO DEAL             
WITH ONGOING STUFF.                                                             
FOR SAT...DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE. BEST            
FORCING WILL BE IN THE W/NRN ZONES WHERE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE COMBINES          
WITH S/SERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...WITH SOME REMNANTS OF THE FRONT         
MOVING BACK N AND WINDS INCREASING FROM THE S...AND HIGH PWS...WILL             
INCLUDE POPS ALL AREAS FOR LATE AFTERNOON WHICH GOES ALONG WITH                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT LATELY AND WILL GO ALONG WITH IT FOR THE         
MOST PART FOR THIS CAST.                                                        
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
JWS                                                                             
 ne                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
AN AREA OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EARLY TONIGHT               
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SC. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF             
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. SKIES SHOULD STILL CLEAR                   
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY TAKE A WHILE...THEREFORE WILL START SKIES                  
PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE THEM BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN SRN ZONES.                 
BECAUSE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND NOT               
FCST TO DROP MUCH...WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR 70 TONIGHT. WITH VERY LIGHT             
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL...THINK PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...                     
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN INLAND AREAS...WHERE THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS               
ALONG WITH CALM WINDS.                                                          
CWF...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MHX                 
SOUNDING SHOWS VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 400 MB. BUOY REPORTS SHOW               
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LATEST RUC AND MESO HAVE WINDS NO HIGHER THAN              
10 KT...SO WILL LOWER WINDS TO 10 KT FOR TONIGHT. DIRECTION IS STILL            
TRICKY. DSLN7 HAS SHIFTED TO S...WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT IS                
MORE FROM THE EAST...OR EVEN NE NEAR DUCK. SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT                
FSCT DIRECTION AS IS WITH WINDS E TO NE BECOMING SE.                            
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
BANDY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 170128  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
958 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
LATEST MSAS SHOWING SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING CONTINUED                 
LIGHT NE FLOW OVER ALL OF CWA. LITTLE EVIDENCE OF OLD BNDRY EXCEPT              
PERHAPS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WELL OFF SHORE ASSOCD WITH CONVECTION.            
WV IMAGERY IMPLYING COMPLEX MID LVL FLOW PATTERN CNTRL APPLCNS LOWER            
OH VLY. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING CLEARLY DEFINED SHRTWV RIDGE AND ASSOCD            
MSTR PLUME LIFTING OVER CWA.  ISOLATED SHWRS/CNVTN INLAND WITH MORE             
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OFF COAST. GSO/MHX MORNING SOUNDINGS MUCH DRYER             
WHILE CHS STILL SOUPED UP. UNFORTUNATELY CWA IN AMS TRANSITION ZONE.            
MODELS GENERALLY NOT MUCH HELP IN DEFINING FOCUS MECHANISM THUS                 
STILL THINK LOW POPS BEST. HOWEVER..HAVE NOTED NEW RUC DOES DEPICT              
WEAK VORT LOBE/MAX ACROSS SC NEXT 12HRS. WILL CONTINUE SUGG OF                  
BETTER PCPN CHANCES AND CLD COVER FOR SC ZONE AND TRANSITION TO                 
SLGTLY BETTER CONDITIONS FOR NC ZONES.                                          
CWF:MAY SPLIT UP ZONES BASED ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHWR/CNVTV               
ACTIVITY. OTRWS LOOKS OKAY.                                                     
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
RWA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 161346  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
958 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
...AFTERNOON FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUDS/-SHRA IN NORTH...                     
LINE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING THRU NRN RRV INTO NW MN ATTM IN                    
ASSOCIATION WITH TD DISCONTINUITY WITH 40S BEHIND IT AND 60S AHEAD.             
STILL DEALING WITH CLOUD IN EASTERN CWA BEHIND INITIAL COLD FRONT               
WITH W/SW FLO ALOFT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS. MSAS SHOWING RUSH OF CAA              
APPROACHING RRV WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO LOWER 50S IN NW CWA.                       
WV LOOP SHOWS U/L LO SPINNING JUST EAST OF SASK/MB BORDER...QUITE               
CLOSE TO 12Z RUC FCSTD POSITION FOR 15Z. SFC ANLYSIS YIELDS E/W                 
ORIENTATED COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF YBR AT 13Z. MOISTURE WITH SCT               
-SHRA JUST BEHIND FRONT IN SASK/MB SINKING SLOWLY SE. TRACK OF U/L              
SKIMS IT ACROSS INTL BORDER IN QUICK W FLO AND THEN DIPS IT BIT SE              
THRU NW MN BY 21Z-00Z. AMPLE 925-850MB MOIST DROPPING SE SHOULD                 
CLOUD OVER NRN CWA THRU AM HOURS EVEN THO MAIN SFC FRONT SHOULD NOT             
MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS SWRD THRU CWA. TAIL OF PVA SWEEPING ACROSS               
NRN CWA ALSO IN AFTN WITH LI/S 0 TO +2 EXTREME NORTH SO ISOLD -SHRA             
STILL POSSIBLE IN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. THINK SUBSIDENCE FROM             
APPROACHING HI PRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS ND LATER IN AFTN AND SHIFT               
BETTER CHANCE INTO NW MN WHERE MODEL INDICATES SOME WEAK UVM WITH               
HELP FROM EXITING U/L JET. FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS LACK OF PUSH OF                
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND NVA SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUN AND MINIMAL                  
SHRA CHANCE.                                                                    
WILL UPDATE NRN ZONES TO READ BCMNG MCLDY AS PER SAT TRENDS AND                 
NUDGE FEW TEMPS DOWNWARD ALSO IN NORTH. WILL LEAVE SHRA CHANCE IN               
WHERE CURRENT ZONES INDICATE. NO CHANGE TO WINDS AS BREEZY                      
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED.                                              
UPDATE OUT BY 1015 AM.                                                          
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
 nd                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1045 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. LATEST RUC             
KEEPS MOISTURE PLUME TO THE WEST OF FA...AND SFC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS            
KS IS PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE. 12Z RAOBS INDICATE 40KT H85 JET TO THE            
WEST OF FA WHICH HAS LIKELY AIDED THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NC OK             
ANS SRN KS THIS MORNING. LOW POPS OVER ALL OF FA LOOK GOOD FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES OVER FAR NW AR                 
ZONES. NO CHANGES TO LATER PDS.                                                 
UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.                                                     
FCSTID = 23                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 160919  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:                                                          
TEMPERATURES                                                                    
WILL THERE BE CONVECTION?                                                       
STORMS IN CENTRAL KANSAS ARE DIMINISHING AND MOVING MORE EAST.                  
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG WESTERN EDGES OF FORECAST AREA IN THE              
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER           
VORT MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. 03Z RUC ONLY MODEL TO HINT AT               
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AS VORT MOVES TO THE NORTH SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE            
BY LATE MORNING.                                                                
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY STILL REMAINS WITH               
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT ANY STORMS WILL           
MAKE INTO FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT H700 AND H500 MOISTURE            
PLUME WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ALONG THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF COUNTIES               
ALONG KANSAS BORDER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN FOR THIS ARE...BUT JUST               
SLIGHT CHANCE.                                                                  
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOWS...STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER           
FAN FOR HIGHS.                                                                  
AS FRONT WASHES OUT...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL            
DEVELOP THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS.                                               
FCSTID = 33                                                                     
TUL   93  74  94  73 /  20  20  20  10                                          
FSM   92  74  93  71 /  10  10  20  10                                          
MLC   91  74  93  74 /  10  10  20  10                                          
BVO   92  73  93  72 /  20  20  20  10                                          
FYV   89  69  90  68 /  20  10  20  10                                          
BYV   89  69  90  68 /  20  10  20  10                                          
MIO   91  70  91  69 /  20  20  20  10                                          
MKO   93  74  94  73 /  10  10  20  10                                          
F10   92  74  93  74 /  10  10  20  10                                          
HHW   94  72  96  72 /  10  10  20  10                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
--------------------                                                            
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:                                                            
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE                                 
NGM CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
 ok                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
912 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
KGSP SHOWING TSRA DIMINISHING ATTM. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH             
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA KEEP                
WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS MTNS SO SOME ADDITIONAL              
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. WILL REMOVE POPS UNLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT            
OCCURS BEFORE ISSUANCE. DENSE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN NC MTNS SO             
FOG WORDING TO REMAIN. TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE COOLER THAN             
FCST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. WILL CHECK LATEST READINGS TO SEE IF                  
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.                                                      
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 170100  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1030 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE WEATHER QUIET ACROSS THE WESTERN           
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. MODIFIED MORNING RAOBS SHOW CAPE OF AROUND 2200         
J/KG AT FFC...AND AROUND 1700 J/KG AT GSO WHERE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE        
LIMITING CAPE TO A GREATER EXTENT. HOWEVER...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO           
BE MUCH FORCING TO ACT UPON THIS INSTABILITY. OF MINOR CONCERN IS POOL          
OF COOLER AIR AT 500 MB (TEMPS AROUND MINUS 10 C) TO OUR IMMEDIATE              
NW...BUT MODELS KEEP THIS COOL POOL OUT OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. 12Z RUC         
AND 03Z ETA SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS         
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE ONE MIGHT EXPECT A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF DEEP        
CONVECTION ANYWAY. FORTUNATELY...THE CURRENT SET OF ZONES HAS THIS              
COVERED. ONE MINOR CHANGE WILL BE TO SPLIT OUT THE NORTHERN FOOTHILL            
ZONES TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE            
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT SIMILAR TO         
YESTERDAY. TEMPS LOOK FINE AND ONLY CHANGES MIGHT BE MINOR TWEAKS.              
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 161401  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
AT 02Z SFC MAP SHOWS HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FM CENT CANADA SE THRU             
NE MT AND THE DAKOTA'S.  00Z RUC SHOWS STG S/W FM 500-700 MB IN SW              
WYOMING.  THIS S/W IS PROGD TO MV NE SLWLY AND BE NR CPR BY 12Z.                
LKS LIKE BEST PVA WITH THIS WL BE LATER TONIGHT ACRS NE WY AND BLACK            
HILLS.                                                                          
SCT SHWS SHOWING UP IN ERN WY ON 88D...ACROSS CAMPBELL CTY AND PTS              
SOUTH.  WL UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE POPS OUT OF NE WYM AND JUST GO SCT              
SHWS/TSTMS.  WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMTS TO WINDS BUT WL LEAVE               
REST OF FCST ALONE AS IT LKS GD.                                                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
LJC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 170158  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ON VISIBLE STLY MOVING NE THROUGH NW IA AND PICKED        
UP WELL BY 12Z RUC. ALTHOUGH CAA TAKING PLACE IN CWA...PVA                      
CONTRIBUTIONS AND LO LVL CONVERGENGE PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING             
TSTMS WITH HVY RAIN TO PARTS OF NW IA THIS MRNG WHICH WAS HANDLED               
WELL THROUGH A 920 AM NOWCAST.  WL UPDATE ZONES BEFORE NOON TO WIND             
DOWN MRNG PCPN ALONG WITH PSBL TWEAKS IN TEMPS AND WNDS. ALTHOUGH HI            
PRES MOVNG INTO THE NRN PLAINS...PRES GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE                    
STRONG TDY WITH RUC INDICATING 20KT WNDS AROUND 18Z THEN DECREASING             
LATER IN THE AFTN. DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA HELPING TO                   
STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE TDY...THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL BE            
POSSIBLE IN THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTN.                                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
BR                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 161446  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
900 AM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH             
COLD AIR ENTRENCHED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS               
SHOWS PLENTY OF COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB THIS MORNING WITH KRAP AT               
+10C AND KGGW AT +1C. A DIFFERENT STORY AT 700MB WITH WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION OCCURING WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECK              
OF ALTOCUMULUS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.                     
12Z RUC INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. THE RUC              
SLOWLY DISSIPATES CLOUDS AND MOVES THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AND                
BRINGS IN SOME WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A               
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...AND UPDATE WILL MAINLY BE TO REMOVE              
MORNING SHOWERS.                                                                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 160917 COR  sd                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1010 AM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGIONAL WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER               
INTO THE WEEKEND. MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY THIS             
MORNING. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTED HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S          
TO AROUND 90. MODIFIED RNK 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT WE COULD                 
BREAK OUR CAP AROUND 2 DEGREES WITH AN LI 0F MINUS 5. SOME LOW LEVEL            
CONVEREGENCE COMBINED WITH ORGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD CREATED A FEW                  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE MEAN WIND FLOW SUGGEST SLOW                 
MOVERS WITH RAIN AROUND AN INCH PER RAOBS PCP WATER VALUES. THIS                
MORNINGS RUC AND MM5 SE RUNS ALSO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF A CHC OF               
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. EARLIER RUNS OF ETA/NGM ALSO INDICATED                
THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE WEST. ONLY MINOR CHANGES               
FOR AFTERNOON ZONE PACKAGE. HAVE A GUD AFTERNOON.                               
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 161414  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
945 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
WILL BE UPDATING ZFP ONCE AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST STLT AND RADAR        
TRENDS. IR STLT LOOP SHOWS CLD SHIELD SHIFTING STEADILY EAST. RADAR             
SHOWS ONE AREA OF RAIN OVER E-C WI SHIFTING E OVER LK MICHIGAN. NEXT            
AREA TO THE WEST IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST...BUT DIMINISHING. 00Z RUC        
SUGGESTS MID-CLDS WILL CLEAR THE NW 2/3 OF MY FCST AREA BY 12Z. CLEARING        
SKIES...LGT WINDS...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM THE RAINS SHOULD LEAD TO        
SOME DENSE FOG FORMATION. WILL ADD CLEARING SKIES AND MENTION OF AREAS          
OF DENSE FOG IN THE N-C...C...AND NE WI. LINGERING MID-CLDS SHOULD HELP         
PREVENT DENSE FOG IN E-C WI...BUT WILL STILL MENTION SOME FOG THERE.            
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KARX 170217  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
830 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON IA VORT CNTR AND INCOMING CDFNT.                          
SATL WATER VAPOR IMAGRY SHOWS WEAK SHRTWV ENTERING WI. HWVR WINDS IN            
MID/UPR LEVELS WEAK...SO UPR DYNAMICS ARE LACKING.  MDT SW WNDS AHD             
OF CDFNT BELOW 700 MB...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT IS WEAK.                    
THEREFORE MAIN INGREDIANT WITH TSTMS IS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.               
00Z RUC SOUNDING OVR MSN SHOWS CAP GONE WITH FREE RIDE UP TO 43 THSD            
FT.  HWVR MOST TSTM TOPS ARND 40 THSD FT...WITH NONE EXCEEDING                  
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHLD BE              
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. PRECIP WATER ARND 1.75 WITH CAPES NEAR 2000. OUR              
FCST AREA SHUD BE ABLE TO HANDLE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN WITH HIGH                  
FFG VALUES.  WITH LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE MOST HEAVY RAIN HAS                
BEEN BRIEF...AND AFFECTING SMALL AREAS AT ONE TIME.                             
WET BULB ZERO ARND 12000 FT SO HAIL THREAT IS LOW THIS EVE.                     
.UW-NMS...NOT AVAILABLE.                                                        
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 170021  wi                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
300 AM MDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
...FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SE CO INCLUDING I-25                    
CORRIDOR AREA...                                                                
CURRENTLY...IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER THE REGION. SAT IDATA AND ANALYSIS              
OF 00Z UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS NDICATING EXCELLENT ANTICYCLONIC                 
OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS. LOCALLY...TRAINING OF STORMS OCCURRING IN              
LHX AREA AND QUITE A BIT OF RAIN HAS FALLEN LOCALLY IN THIS AREA.               
LAPS ANALYSIS PARAMETERS INDICATING MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND CONVG IN              
THIS REGION. MID 60 DWPTS FEEDING INTO SYSTEM.                                  
SHORT TERM WILL OBVIOUSLY BE FLOOD THREAT IN LHX AREA. RUC INDICATES            
EASTERLY MOIST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THIS REGION. WILL                
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA FOR UPGRADE IF PRECIP CONTINUES.                       
...BASED ON REPORTS OF RESCUES OF MOTORISTS...FFW ISSUED AT 200 AM...           
FORECAST...PLENTY OF JUICE TO REMAIN IN AREA AS LEE TROUGH TO BACK              
WEST ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. PWATS VALUES TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH               
TIME. ALSO CONVECTION HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY UP ALONG MTNS.                
DWPTS IN THE 60S EVERYWHERE IN FA (PLAINS). I AM OBVIOUSLY GOING TO             
MENTION HVY RAINS IN THE ZONES. FCST TEAM HERE AT PUB CONTEMPLATED A            
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREA. DECIDED AGAINST THIS ATTM FOR THE                   
FOLLOWING REASONS.                                                              
1. ANTICPATE LOCAL HVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS TO DEVELOP DURING                     
AFTERNOON TIME PD...WHICH IS 18 HOURS OFF.                                      
2. LET DAY SHIFT GET A BETTER FEEL FOR MORNING SOUNDINGS/WAT VAP                
SHOTS TO GET FEEL FOR SHORT WAVES OF THE DAY AND MOISTURE PROFLIES              
ACROSS REGION. ALSO THEY WILL HAVE BETTER FEEL FOR BOUNDARIES ACROSS            
AREA.                                                                           
3. SYNOPTICALLY...CLASSIC FLOOD THREAT NOT OBVIOUS IN FCST DATA (NO             
DOSWELL PATTERNS EVIDENT).                                                      
STRONGLY ENCOURAGE MEDIA TO MENTION LOCAL HVY RAIN THREAT THIS                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TV/RADIO PRODUCTS THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SE               
COLORADO INCLUDING I-25 CORRIDOR AREA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT BE              
ISSUED BY DAY SHIFT AT ANY TIME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.                          
SIG WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE WORDED HARD FOR FLOOD THREAT.                       
SUNDAY...MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHT DRYING. DO NOT BELIEVE IT AS LEE              
TROUGH STILL BANKED UP AGAINST MTNS. WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES HIGH             
THROUGH WEEKEND.                                                                
AS FOR EXTD...NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT DRY IN FCST...AS IMPRESSIVE               
SHORT WAVE TOMOVE ACROSS UTAH IN EXTD PD WHICH SHOULD KEEP TROUGH               
BANKED UP ALONG ROCKIES...KEEPING AREA IN THREAT FOR PRECIP. WILL               
ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MAKE UPDATES WITH LATER AVN RUNS.                            
HODANISH                                                                        
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 162101  co                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
249 PM MDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
TNGT/SAT: 19Z/16 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM             
KGCK-KSPD-KCOS-KCAG WITH "TRUE" COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS                   
THROUGH SOUTHERN WY INTO ID.  KPUB 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING                 
ABOUT 8000 KT DEEP NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW.  TWO MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT              
WILL BE MINOR SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CO AND                 
UPSLOPE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT                    
PLAINS.  LATEST RUC/ETA HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING WESTERN CO                 
SHORTWAVE BY TAKING IT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST.  CURRENT MANUAL                  
PROJECTION TAKE IT THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CO TONIGHT.  LATEST              
REGIONAL 88D/LIGHTNING DETECTION IMAGERY SHOWED WIDELY                          
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BREAKING OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.  GREATEST COVERAGE...SO FAR...IS IN UPPER                  
HUERFANO AND UPPER PURGATOIRE RIVER BASINS(74/75).  MOISTURE                    
CERTAINLY NOT A PROBLEM.  SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE              
MID 50S/MID 60S ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH                    
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND EVENING UPSLOPE EASTERLY...              
PLAN TO CARRY "LIKELY" WORDING FOR SANGRE DE CRISTO/WET MOUNTAINS               
INCLUDING ZONES 74/75 TONIGHT.  WILL GO WITH WIDELY SCATTERED/                  
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THE PLAINS.  WILL NOT CARRY A "TIMER" ON                  
PRECIPITATION WORDING FROM SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE PLAINS.                 
SHRA/TSRA MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER WITH EXPECTED SHORTWAVE...                
ALBEIT WEAK...MIGRATING THROUGH CWA.  IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...             
UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY...AND SAN LUIS VALLEY...SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OF            
DIURNAL CHARACTERISTICS.  WOULDN'T BE SUPRISED TO SEE STRATUS                   
POSSIBLY FORM IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT.  NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT                  
WIDESPREAD FOG...SO WILL NOT MENTION.  LOWER TROP FLOW EXPECTED TO              
GO MORE SOUTHERLY ON SAT WITH PLENTY OF RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE IN             
PLACE. 500MB HEIGHTS START TO RISE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL             
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.  PLAN TO MAINTAIN LOW              
"CHANCE" POPS AND WORDING IN CURRENT ZFP.  DAY 2 QPF HAS .25-.50"               
PRECIPITATION DRAWN GENERALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.                      
SAT NGT/SUN: 500MB HEIGHT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RISING AS A SERIES OF            
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EJECT ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM DEEPENING              
LONGWAVE ALONG WEST COAST.  SHRA/TSRA THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LESS AND            
LESS WITH THE QUALITY OF DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASING AND MID-LEVEL             
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE.  SHOULD SEE MORE OF A DIURNAL WIDELY                  
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ON SUN.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES            
TO INCREASE BACK INTO SUMMERTIME READINGS.                                      
EXTENDED(MON-WED): LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ALONG THE            
WEST COAST ON MON WITH ANTICYCLONE TAKING SHAPE IN THE HEARTLAND OF             
U.S.  STILL SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO GENERATE MAINLY                    
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINS.  PLAN TO             
LEAVE GENERIC "CHANCE" WORDING IN FOR MON.  MRF CONTINUES TO HAVE               
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON BUILDING LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE INTO             
CO/KS ON TUE-WED. 700MB TEMPERATURES STILL PROGD TO BE +16-20 C.                
MRF IN PAST CASE SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE 700-300MB MEAN RH AND               
MAY BE CONTINUING THIS PRACTICE.  BELOW 500MB...MEAN RH EXPECTED TO             
RANGE FROM 10-20%. FEEL THREAT IS SO LOW ITS TOO EARLY TO MENTION AND           
WILL WAIT UNTIL TUE-WED FORECAST GETS INTO THE SHORT RANGE TO FINE              
TUNE. STILL COULDN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA IN MOUNTAINS...BUT TOO           
FAR TO MENTION. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TUE-WED SHOULD BE SUMMERTIME               
HEAT AND A RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEG READINGS IN FAVORED AREAS                     
THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS.                                                          
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGJT 161831  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                     
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWERS                
ALONG THIS LINE AND WITH UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE...BOTH OF WHICH                    
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MSAS STILL SHOWING LI'S TO -5 AHEAD OF FRONT...            
AND BOTH RUC AND ETA INDICATING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT                   
UNSTABLE THERE. HOWEVER BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF              
WISCONSIN CWA. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM IOWA VORT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO           
PASS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS            
ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...BUT AM NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER            
FOR ONCE.                                                                       
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH               
MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE TO                
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...VORT SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN            
MANITOBA TO BRING MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS             
OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN             
STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HERE.                         
PREVIOUS FCST TEMPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE               
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ALONG NORTH SHORE TO SUW.                                 
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
TAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 161601  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
240 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MAIN FCST               
CONCERN AS FNTL BNDRY STALLING ACROSS NRN MO AND EXTRM NRN KS LIFTS NWD         
AS WMFNT TDAY THRU TNGT.                                                        
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ALREADY STARTING TO REDEVELOP IN SE NEB AS              
START OF LWR LVL WAA AND LIFTING OVER BNDRY ENSUES. CLOUDINESS ALSO             
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AGAIN NWD INTO PTNS E CNTRL NEB AND SW IA. BASED           
ON STLT TRENDS AND MODEL RH AS ETA AND RUC...PROCESS LIKELY TO CONTINUE         
WITH CLOUDINESS THICKENING ACROSS REST OF CWFA FM SW TO NE TDAY WITH            
INCREASING CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. EXCEPT FOR SE NEB HIGHEST                 
LIKLIHOOD FOR SHWRS/TSTMS APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS AFTN THRU TNGT AS            
STRENGTHENING LWR LVL WINDS MAXIMIZE STRONG POSITIVE THETA ADVECTION            
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO BNDRY. WITH ARND 15C H85 DEWPOINTS AND            
70-75F SFC DEWPOINTS INTO BNDRY ALNG WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEED             
EVIDENT ON STLT LOOP INCREASING INTO AREA...THE HIGH PWS WITH RISK OF           
MCC AND HEAVY RAINFALL REASONABLE. ETA AND NGM APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER            
HANDLE ON THIS EVOLUTION.  WILL NOT ISSUE FFA ATTM...HOWEVER ONE MAY BE         
REQUIRED LATER IN DAY AS SITUATION UNFOLDS.                                     
APPEARS MAIN RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END SUNDAY MRNG AS         
BNDRY LIFTS NWD AND UPPER RIDGE BLDS MORE OVER AREA. GUID MX TEMPS              
RSNBL. HOWEVER BASED TEMPS VICINIITY AND S OF FNT WILL LIKLELY RAISE            
MIN TEMPS FCST ARND 5 DEGREES OR SO OVER MIN TEMP GUIDANCE.                     
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
WIESE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 161952  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
AN AREA OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EARLY TONIGHT               
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SC. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF             
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST. SKIES SHOULD STILL CLEAR                   
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY TAKE A WHILE...THEREFORE WILL START SKIES                  
PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAVE THEM BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR IN SRN ZONES.                 
BECAUSE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SRN CWA AND NOT               
FCST TO DROP MUCH...WILL KEEP LOWS NEAR 70 TONIGHT. WITH VERY LIGHT             
WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL...THINK PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...                     
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN INLAND AREAS...WHERE THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS               
ALONG WITH CALM WINDS.                                                          
CWF...HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. 00Z MHX                 
SOUNDING SHOWS VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 400 MB. BUOY REPORTS SHOW               
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND LATEST RUC AND MESO HAVE WINDS NO HIGHER THAN              
10 KT...SO WILL LOWER WINDS TO 10 KT FOR TONIGHT. DIRECTION IS STILL            
TRICKY. DSLN7 HAS SHIFTED TO S...WHILE CLOSER TO THE COAST IT IS                
MORE FROM THE EAST...OR EVEN NE NEAR DUCK. SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT                
FSCT DIRECTION AS IS WITH WINDS E TO NE BECOMING SE.                            
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
BANDY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 170128  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
912 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 1999                                                      
KGSP SHOWING TSRA DIMINISHING ATTM. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH             
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA KEEP                
WEAKNESS IN RIDGE AND GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS MTNS SO SOME ADDITIONAL              
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. WILL REMOVE POPS UNLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT            
OCCURS BEFORE ISSUANCE. DENSE VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING IN NC MTNS SO             
FOG WORDING TO REMAIN. TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE COOLER THAN             
FCST OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. WILL CHECK LATEST READINGS TO SEE IF                  
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.                                                      
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 170100  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1004 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
CURRENTLY...AT 9 AM SATELLITE...SURFACE...AND RADAR SHOWED A VORT MAX           
OVER NORTHEASTERN GEORGIA MOVING NORTHEAST. A LOW WAS NORTH OF CUBA             
MOVING NORTHWEST. THE E/W SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WAS ACROSS NORTHERN                
GEORGIA/NORT CAROLINA AREA. THE RUC/ETA SHOWED SOME WEAK VORTICITY              
OVER NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY             
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHWEST                
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE SEABREEZE INTERACTION WILL                   
DICTATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                 
STORM MOTION INDICATE NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS SO MAIN THREAT THIS              
AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE FLOODING. MORNING ZONES LOOKS GOOD.                      
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 171345  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
554 AM MDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS EARLY MORNING. ALSO           
THE LATEST RUC INDICATED MID LVL MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY             
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED MOST OF THIS MORNINGS ZONES TO REFLECT THIS.           
.GLD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE EASTERN COUNTY              
WARNING AREA THAT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING KANSAS ZONES KSZ004-015-016-           
029.                                                                            
VPAPOL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGLD 170914 AMD  ks                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE CLOUDS/TEMPS.                         
MID/UPR LVL ZONAL PATTERN DOMINATES WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SFC HI PRES            
WAS BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA AS SFC HI OVER SRN MANITOBA EDGES                  
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. UPR MI WL BE UNDER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDECNE              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 250 MB CONVERGENCE AND 305-310K ISENTROPIC                  
DESCENT. VIS LOOP INDICATED EXTENSIVE CU FIELD NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR              
WHERE CAA HAS BROUGHT 850 TEMPS BLO 10C AND SFC DEWPOINTS LINGERED              
IN THE 50S F. CU...MOST PREVALENT OVER INLAND AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MI             
AT 15Z SUPPORTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS ALSO IN MID TO UPPER 50S F IN WAKE            
OF RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST GROUND. FCST 850 TEMPS FROM 10-13C PER             
12Z RUC/ETA SUPPORTS GOING TEMP FCST. NW TO N 950 GRADIENT WIND                 
AROUND 10 KNOTS WEAK ENOUGH WITH LAND/LK DLT/T NEAR 10C TO ALLOW LGT            
LK BREEZE OFF OF LK MI AND BOOST NRLY FLOW INTO NORTH CNTRL UPR MI.             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 171529  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1125 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
RATHER WIDE LINE OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH                
MOST OF NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI ALONG THE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.               
PRECIP IS ALSO RECEIVING SUPPORT FROM THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET             
MAX OVER ONTARIO AND DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX MOVING TOWARD              
SRN LOWER MI. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS TIMING ENDING OF                
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER AND THEN TIMING DECREASING CLOUDS               
FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                
STRENGTH OF THE ETA WITH RESPECT TO THE VORT MAX PANNED OUT WELL...             
BUT TRACK DEPICTED BY THE NGM ACTUALLY VERIFIED BETTER THAN THE ETA.            
RUC SUGGESTS A DECREASE IN UPPER SUPPORT ACROSS SW CWA LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH SRN LOWER MI. THETA E RIDGE             
FOLLOWS SUITE...WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST THETA E MOVING TO SE LOWER             
MI BY 21Z PER LATEST RUC RUN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL             
REMAIN HIGH...WITH CAPES FROM APX MODIFIED SOUNDING AROUND 2700 J/KG            
AND LI'S OF -7. HOWEVER...SVR WX WILL LIKELY NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR               
THE AFTERNOON FOR SE CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUN TO WORK WITH AND A              
NEAR TOTALLY SATURATED COLUMN TO INHIBIT NEGATIVE BUOYANCE AND                  
THUS...DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. FREEZING LEVEL WILL REMAIN HIGH AS                  
WELL...SO LITTLE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND.                     
WILL UPDATE ALL ZONES FOR VARIOUS REASONS. ERN UPR HAS GONE MOSTLY              
SUNNY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER MORE STABLE             
AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL DECREASE CLOUDS              
OVER FAR NRN LOWER MI WERE PRECIP HAS STOPPED AND CLOUDS ARE                    
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AREAS FROM GLR TO TVC TO MBL WILL SEE PRECIP             
END DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...APN TO HTL BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN               
FINALLY ACROSS SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL            
RAPIDLY DECREASE ONCE PRECIP ENDS...WITH GOOD DRYING AT LOW/MID                 
LEVELS TAKING PLACE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 171345  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1005 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
12Z RUC SHOWS SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL GA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE        
MIDLANDS TO CENTRAL NC. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL/SRN GA WEAKENING WHILE          
MAKING VERY LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD. DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER CSRA WILL TEND         
TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.                                                             
SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO             
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CSRA AND LOWER TEMPS ONE CATEGORY.              
POPS LOOK OKAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.                                      
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 171357  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
243 AM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
RUC INDICATES WEAKNESS IN H5 RIDGE OVR CWA. VORT ALONG GA/SC BORDER OVR         
CSRA ATTM IS FCST TO MOVE TO THE CST TDY. ETA FCSTS NVA TO MOVE INTO            
MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND NRN COUNTIES OF CWA TDY. DON'T THINK TOO MUCH IN        
THE WAY OF CONV WIL DEV. ETA SHOWS DECENT VORT MOVING THRU THE AREA ON          
SUN...COULD BE ENUF TO TRIGGER SCT CONVECTION WITH LI'S -3 TO -5 OVR CWA        
TDY AND SUN. H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO FL IS PUSHING THE RIDGE A LITTLE         
FURTHER N OVR THE AREA BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS RE-ESTABLISHING          
RIDGE OVR MS VLY WITH WEAKNESS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF             
DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH TRYING TO GET HEAT PUMP STARTED, BUT WITH SO MANY            
WEAKNESES IN THE RIDGE WE CANT ESTABLISH DECENT SW FLOW. WILL CONT TO           
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHER POPS IN SRN PORTIONS OF        
THE FCST AREA. A LOT OF CONV DEBRIS ATTM BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL THIN OVR         
NRN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                         
PRELIM CCF                                                                      
CAE BB   90/71/91/71  102                                                       
AGS BB   89/69/91/70  323                                                       
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BARLOW                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 170626  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1015 AM MDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                     
THE 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER WY WITH A WARM             
FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NE. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED                     
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THIS FORCING IN                     
CONJUNCTION WITH THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE WARM FRONT IS SUPPORTING            
SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST SD. 1KM VISIBLE LOOP SHOWS CLEARING EDGING             
NORTHEAST AS PRESSURE FALLS SUGGEST FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST SD             
TODAY. CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.                
THE 12Z RUC/ETA INITIALIZED ALRIGHT. THEY BOTH BRING THE WARM FRONT             
INTO SOUTHWEST SD IN RESPONSE TO BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF                  
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DRY PUNCH ALOFT                 
QUITE PRONOUNCED. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL WE BE ABLE TO MIX OUT THE            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET SOME SUN. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SUPPORTS THIS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HENCE...I/D EXPECT SOME             
SUN ALONG I-90 ON SOUTH TODAY. LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE               
NORTH AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. THIS WILL OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON AS                
BEST QG-FORCING MOVES INTO KABR CWA. 850-700MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL               
POINT INTO THE HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE...ANOTHER CHANCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION WARRANTED AS FRONT LIFTS NORTH.                                   
WILL BASE UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURES ON EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.                 
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 171504  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- POPS AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.                
SYNOPSIS -- LATEST KOAX 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS                    
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS ERN NEB WITH THE KOAX VWP AND               
FBY WIND PROFILER SHOWING INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-750MB            
LAYER.  MEANWHILE...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT                    
EXTENDING FROM N OF HLC EWD TO N OF TOP AND THRU THE MKC METRO WITH             
+70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS POOLED ALONG AND TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY.                
FORECAST -- LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION PROGGED BY ETA/NGM TO             
RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN NEB TONIGHT AS SURFACE WARM FRONT PULLS             
N.  CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AIDED BY 35KT LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A           
FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED AS PWS ARE FORECAST TO            
INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH ETA/RUC FORECAST SOUNDING WARM                 
CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3KM.  THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH             
TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AS WELL              
AS SOME WRN IA COUNTIES.  ALTHOUGH MOST COUNTIES IN THE WATCH AREA              
HAVE FFG VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS            
THERE.  OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND             
70 OR THE LOWER 70S.                                                            
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING IN ERN ZONES TOMORROW MORNING               
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS.  SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR                 
THE NEB-SD BORDER WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH FARTHER N IT             
WILL LIFT DURING THE DAY.  THE ETA IS FORECASTING SBCAPES OF                    
2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS NWRN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MINIMAL            
CIN.  THEREFORE...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL AND/OR OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...WE WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.                 
SUNDAY NIGHT...ETA TRIES TO DEVELOP AN MCS OVER SD WITH SRN EXTENT              
OF PRECIP POSSIBLY AFFECTING FAR NWRN ZONES.  AGAIN...SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS NW.  ON MONDAY...WE AGREE WITH MORE OF THE AVN FRONTAL POSITION            
AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY                 
ACCEPTED.                                                                       
.OMA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-            
       042>045-051>053 AND IAZ043-055-056-069                                   
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 171939  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
131 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 1999                                                      
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY. MOST              
SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. NEARBY MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW LI              
VCNTY -5 WITH CAPE ABOUT 2000 GSO AND 2640 FFC. RUC OLD. ETA SHOWS              
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND POSITIVE VORTICITY(LITTLE IF ANY                
ADVECTION) WITH A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SLOWLY IN WEAK                
FLOW. THIS IS CAUSING SOME LIFT AND ETA SHOWS UVV AND WEAK Q-                   
FORCING. SHWRS DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA AND UNTIL SFC COOLS LATER THIS             
EVE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN ZONES. EXPECT DECREASING                     
SHOWERS/CLOUDS BY LATE EVENING WITH COOLING. MOISTURE AND WEAK                  
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST.                                      
EXPECT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MORE STABLE...DRYER AND LESS CLOUDY            
AFTER PATCHY MORNING FOG WITH HI TEMPS AROUND GUIDANCE VALUES. ETA              
DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET (40 KTS) OVER MTNS MON BUT WILL NOT            
MENTION POPS DUE TO THIS FEATURE ATTM.                                          
AVL 65/86/66/89 311                                                             
CLT 72/91/73/92 111                                                             
GSP 68/91/71/92 111                                                             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 171405  sc