AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
1018 PM PDT WED APR 18 2007                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NORCAL IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS THIS EVENING AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED                
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND ARE CLEARING OVER THE SIERNEV. ETA                  
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE STRATO-CU DECK OVER THE                  
SIERNEV WOULD ERODE AT 5000 FT THIS EVENING...BUT MID CLOUDS MAY                
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AGAIN BY 12Z THU. THIS IS IN RESPONSE              
TO A STRONG VORT MAX DIGGING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. CLOUDS ARE               
ENHANCING AHEAD OF THIS VORT MAX ALONG WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE N                
COAST. MODELS...INCLUDING THE RUC...ARE INDICATING INITIAL SHORT                
WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORT MAX...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL            
BE MOVING INTO/INCREASING OVER OUR NRN ZONES BY 12Z THU.                        
STRONG 150 KT JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW VCNTY 45N/135W               
SHOULD DIG THE SYSTEM SEWD AND PARALLEL TO THE CA COAST THRU FRI.               
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT OR SYNOPTIC FORCING IS FORECAST REMAIN             
JUST OFF THE CA COAST...WITH THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL ON THE ERN/SRN              
FRINGE OF THE Q-VECTOR FORCING FROM AFT 18Z THU THRU 12 FRI.                    
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TPW PLUME OFF THE              
COAST HAS BEEN WORKED OVER. NAM INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE BEST                 
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST THU AFTN...AND THEN WILL MOVE             
INLAND FRI AFTN BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS JUST N AND E OF OUR                    
FORECAST AREA. ALL FACTORS CONSIDERED...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK               
LIKE IT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT FOR THE INTERIOR OF                     
NORCAL...WITH COASTAL SECTIONS...AND POSSIBLY UPSLOPE CONDITIONS                
FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE INTERIOR AUGMENTING QPFS ON THE E               
SIDE OF THE COASTAL RANGE...RECEIVING THE BULK OF THE QPF.                      
NORCAL WILL BE IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE            
DAY ON SAT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING OCCURS OVER NORCAL AHEAD OF THE                
NEXT GOA TROF. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS A KICKER FOR THE                         
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...MOVING IT INLAND OVER EXTREME SOCAL/NRN              
BAJA AND THEN EJECTING IT NEWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON SUN. THE               
NEXT GOA TROF IS SCHEDULED TO DIG INTO NORCAL WITH A CHANCE OF MORE             
SHOWERS SAT NITE/SUN. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF              
MOISTURE AS A TPW PLUME OF 1.30 INCHES IS FORECAST TO BECOME                    
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE CA COAST LATE SAT...AND MAY BE A                  
BETTER PRECIP PRODUCER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THE THU/FRI SYSTEM.             
IMPROVING WX EXPECTED MON AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM DIGS AND MOVES                  
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. DRIER WX EXPECTED THEN FOR THE REST OF NEXT               
WEEK.      JHM                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS OVER RTES AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER INTERIOR NORCAL             
EXCEPT FOR SIERNEV CREST WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THRU 08Z.              
LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E OVER RTES OVERNITE AS WARM               
FRONT MOVES INLAND AHEAD OF NEXT GULF OF AK UPPER TROF AND CD FNT.              
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIG AND PARALLEL THE COAST THRU FRI...AND            
THE INTERIOR OF NORCAL WILL REMAIN ON THE E OR CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE             
UPPER LOW. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR CIGS/-SHRA            
AFT 00Z FRI IN THE CENTRAL VLY...AND TO IFR CIGS AND SHRA/SHSN OVER             
INTERIOR MTNS AFT 00Z FRI. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWWD OVER RTES.             
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ca                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
230 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER                
LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THREE DISTINCT WEATHER MAKERS ARE               
SEEN ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO              
SPIN JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST...ANOTHER WEAKER CLOSED LOW                   
DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND YET A              
THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG THE EASTERN            
GULF COAST. AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS FOUND FURTHER UPSTREAM THROUGH THE             
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH EVEN FURTHER UPSTREAM            
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.                     
AT THE SURFACE...VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER AND              
JUST TO OUR NORTH ALTHOUGH WITH SUCH A WEAK GRADIENT IT IS DIFFICULT            
TO DETERMINE AN EXACT CENTER.                                                   
PLENTY OF CLOUDCOVER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME            
ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN PERIODIC BREAKS OF SUN HELPING TO BOOST                
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S MOST LOCATIONS. VERY              
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF Q-G FORCING PER LATEST GFS HAS BEEN PRODUCING AN             
AREA OF MORE STEADY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA                  
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO AN AREA OF             
MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND BEGINNING TO SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE            
ON REGIONAL RADARS AS A RESULT. HOWEVER...THE Q-G FORCING REALLY                
DOES NOT DIMINISH ALL THAT MUCH AS IT PUSHES EAST INTO THE EARLY                
EVENING. FOR THAT REASON IF THE LOWER LEVELS CAN MOISTEN JUST A BIT             
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW...THEN A FEW SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF             
THE AREA AND WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE 30 POP IN FOR MUCH OF THE BIG               
BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. QPF                
AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE ON THE VERY LIGHT SIDE                
WITH GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH (IF THAT) IN MOST                    
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW PULLS EAST OF             
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT                  
SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGE SCALE Q-G FORCING                  
ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN             
AND EXIT WITH THE SHORTWAVE BY AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WILL                 
LIKELY HOLD IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FAR EASTERN BIG                      
BEND/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA INTO THE LATE EVENING BUT WILL END ALL MENTION            
OF SHOWERS AFTER THAT. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE              
REST OF THE NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING BEHIND THE             
WEAK FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE                   
NORTHERLY FLOW REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
AWAY FROM THE SHORELINE.                                                        
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIR AND PLEASANT DAY AT THIS TIME WITH                  
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING FORM THE MIDDLE 70S FAR NORTH TO            
AROUND 80 FOR THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TRY AND            
NOSE INTO THE AREA WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND UNDER PARTLY             
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WILL BE WATCHING A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING             
SOUTH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA                     
COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH             
AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT THE GA/SC COASTLINE AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. AT              
THIS TIME DYNAMICS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE                  
EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO              
PREVENT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM REACHING US. WOULD EXPECT ONLY AN              
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE WEAK LOW             
LOOKS TO CROSS THE CWA DURING THURSDAY EVENING THEN DROP INTO THE               
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NIGHT.                                                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH NOSES INTO THE                 
REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN IN                   
CONTROL OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. DURING THURSDAY                
NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO            
PHASE WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BACKSIDE OF THE                 
CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT            
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS                 
POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE            
OF THIS TROUGH COULD BRING A PERIOD OR TWO OF HIGH CLOUDS TO THE                
EAST HALF OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE ONLY EFFECT WOULD BE TO            
DIM THE SUN FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO A MID-LEVEL COOL POCKET                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD DURING FRIDAY             
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL. RAN             
TEMPERATURES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE REST OF            
THE SHORT TERM.                                                                 
THE TROUGH TRIES TO WEAKENS AND PULL AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                     
SATURDAY...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THAT A PIECE WILL              
HANG BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.                   
CURRENT GRIDS CONTINUE THE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF              
THE AREA AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND             
GRIDS. THEREAFTER LARGE SCALE RIDGING SEEN OVER THE MID SECTION OF              
THE COUNTY WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH FAIR                
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                  
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED ON TAP. BOTH             
THE 18/00Z GFS AND 18/00Z EURO AGREE THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL               
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY              
SHIFTING OFF THE US EAST COAST. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL ONLY BE             
TO GIVE US TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY                 
MONDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST GIVING US             
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ALLOWING US TO MOISTEN UP. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER              
THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AS DEEP TROF ENTERS THE WEST            
COAST. DESPITE THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IT LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY UNTIL            
WEDNESDAY WHEN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE                    
APPROACHING SYSTEM THAT ENTERED THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY WILL                   
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY...BUT THIS FAR OUT IT IS                  
ANYONE`S GUESS ON HOW STRONG OR WEAK THIS SYSTEM WILL BE. NOT                   
SURPRISINGLY...THERE ARE ALREADY RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES                  
BETWEEN THE 17/18Z GFS AND 18/00Z GFS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH            
A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS. HAVE               
SEEN WINDS COME UP TO CAUTION CRITERIA OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS THIS              
PAST AFTERNOON...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS TO BE A SHORT TERM RISE              
AND SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS SETTLE BACK DOWN DURING THE EVENING.                 
BEHIND TONIGHTS FRONT WILL SEE GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW                  
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE                
NORTH. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRINGS WINDS UP            
ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW CAUTION                    
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WATERS INTO               
THE WEEKEND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FROM THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT              
AND EARLY SATURDAY MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR CAUTION LEVEL                
CRITERIA TO THE WATERS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE LARGE BATCH OF RAIN FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW                                
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AS IT HEADS EASTWARD THROUGH             
THE REGION. PFN BRIEFLY DROPPED TO IFR VIS IN A HEAVIER                         
SHOWER...WHILE DHN REACHED MVFR LEVELS. EXPECT THE EASTERN 3 TAF                
SITES TO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VIS WHEN THE RAIN                          
ARRIVES...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...TLH AND              
VLD MAY HAVE SOME MVFR FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT DHN...ABY...AND PFN             
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE...DURATIONS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW            
35 PERCENT ACROSS THE BIG BEND DO NOT LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL                    
DURATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN                      
CANCELLED. BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL ONCE               
AGAIN MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA AND THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND HAS BEEN            
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS OF CRITICAL               
RH. CONTINUED DRY AIR BEHIND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY                
WILL BRING POSSIBLE CRITICAL DURATIONS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT ONCE              
AGAIN TO OUR FLORIDA ZONES AND A FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  50  80  50  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0                           
PANAMA CITY  54  78  54  76  55 /  05   0   0   0   0                           
DOTHAN       48  78  51  77  50 /  05   0   0   0   0                           
ALBANY       47  78  50  76  49 /  10   0  10   0   0                           
VALDOSTA     50  78  50  76  49 /  10   0  10   0   0                           
CROSS CITY   53  81  51  77  50 /  15   0  10   0  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM               
     CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...                    
     DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND                        
     WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...               
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING            
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...               
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...                       
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...               
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD                                                        
LONG TERM...GODSEY                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE....MROCZKA                                                        
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
910 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST CONTINUES TO                
OPEN AND SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES EAST TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ECHOES ON REGIONAL RADARS ARE                  
ALMOST ENTIRELY ALOFT THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA. 12Z KTLH                    
SOUNDING SHOWS US WHY WITH A VERY SIGNIFICANT DRY LEVEL BELOW ABOUT             
550MB. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WITHIN THIS LAYER REACH 30C ENSURING                
THAT ANY HYDROMETEORS FALLING INTO THE LAYER FROM ABOVE HAVE VERY               
LITTLE CHANCE OF REACHING THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE WEST OVER INTO            
SOUTHERN AL/MS WE DO SEE A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF RAINFALL MORE IN              
PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS FOR LIFT            
IN THIS AREA HAVE ALLOWED THE LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN AND QPF IS                
REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH TIME WE DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS              
OUR AREA WILL MOISTEN ALLOWING SOME QPF TO REACH THE SURFACE...                 
HOWEVER ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.               
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE AREA OF RAINFALL SHOULD BECOME LESS                     
IMPRESSIVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT FORECAST POPS LOOK              
GENERALLY O.K. FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND FROM             
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF THE LIGHT            
AND WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY. ALSO...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS               
FORECAST...A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA                   
PANHANDLE ZONES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY ISOLATED. QPF AMOUNTS (IF ANY)...STILL LOOK TO            
BE QUITE LOW WITH GENERALLY AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.                
AREAS MORE LIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE WESTERN             
HALF OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BE FASTEST TO ERODE.               
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW PASS OVER AND               
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY                    
EVENING. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD ALSO EXIT TO THE              
SOUTH AND EAST BY AROUND SUNSET. PARTIAL CLEARING AND SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE THEN NOSES IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT            
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WIND RUNNING GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS                  
MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS. DO EXPECT WINDS TO COME AROUND TO A              
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE               
WITH TIME TODAY AND LATEST RUC IS IN AGREEMENT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ANY                    
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL FALL FROM MID LEVEL CIGS. THIS             
AFTERNOON...LOWERING CIGS MAY REACH MVFR LEVELS FOR A TIME...AND VIS            
MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAINFALL WHICH              
IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE WEST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
MONITORING THE RED FLAG WARNING VERY CLOSELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG             
BEND FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE INTO THE EARLY                
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THAN THE WARNING MAY NEED              
TO BE CANCELLED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS                 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...GADSDEN...                        
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.                 
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY                
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...                  
     FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...                      
     JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...                        
     MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.                                   
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MROCZKA/GOULD                                                                   
</pre> fl                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
749 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE                      
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                   
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...                                          
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION                               
TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                              
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH               
H5 TEMPERATURES NEAR -23 SHOULD BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                    
FEATURE PLUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH              
PART OF THE AREA PLUS DIFFERENCE HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDY                 
AND SUNNY AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR                          
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH H85 WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. BELIEVE THE MAIN               
THREAT IS DAMAGING HAIL. WEB-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND STRONG                       
INSTABILITY ALOFT FAVOR LARGE HAIL. THE RUC...NAM...AND GFS                     
FORECAST OF CROSS TOTALS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S APPEARS                        
REASONABLE BASED ON THE COLD H5 TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM.                          
THE THREAT SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT AS THE H5 COLD POOL SHIFTS                   
EASTWARD AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. DRY RIDGING SHOULD BE IN                   
CONTROL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
THE LATEST GFS SHOWS RIDGING CONTINUING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH             
A FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE              
APPEARS TO BE LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND             
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE LOW. PLAN TO FORECAST JUST SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                       
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER AREA TONIGHT. POSSIBILITY OF                           
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT              
WILL MAKE SMALL HAIL AAND WINSD A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE                 
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
THROUGH 04Z CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE VSBYS AROUND 4SM WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.            
AFTER 03Z BEHIND COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE STRATUS IN THE 3000 FT                
AGL RANGE RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 12Z ON                    
FRIDAY THE SKYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO               
VFR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
126 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL         
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE DRY                 
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH H5            
TEMPERATURES NEAR -23 SHOULD BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE                 
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE            
PLUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTH PART OF              
THE AREA PLUS DIFFERENCE HEATING ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDY AND SUNNY               
AREAS FARTHER NORTH SUPPORTS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG                
WITH H85 WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING                
HAIL. WEB-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT FAVOR LARGE            
HAIL. THE RUC...NAM...AND GFS FORECAST OF CROSS TOTALS IN THE MID TO            
UPPER 20S APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON THE COLD H5 TEMPERATURES                  
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
THE THREAT SHOULD END LATE TONIGHT AND THE H5 COLD POOL SHIFTS                  
EASTWARD AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. DRY RIDGING SHOULD BE IN                   
CONTROL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
CLOUDS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AND SOME WIND ESPECIALLY BEFORE                      
MIDNIGHT PREFER WARMER GUIDANCE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...DECREASING               
CLOUDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE                    
NORTH. WARMING TREND DEVELOPS SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST               
FROM THE PLAINS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...SO WARMING TREND                   
EXPECTED. DRY PERIOD EXPECTED. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                      
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS                
EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE IS                 
AROUND 60 PERCENT AT CAE...CUB...AND OGB  AND AROUND 40 PERCENT AT              
AGS AND DNL.  THUS WILL HAVE TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT                         
CAE...OGB..AND CUB BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND VERY             
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAKE HAIL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY WITH THE                   
THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AT AGS AND               
DNL WILL BE JUST BELOW 50 PERCENT SO WILL ONLY PUT VCSH IN TAF.                 
THROUGH 04Z CONDITIONS GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT IN SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE VSBYS AROUND 4SM WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.            
AFTER 04Z BEHIND COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE STRATUS IN THE 1000 FT TO             
2000 FT AGL RANGE RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 12Z ON            
FRIDAY THE SKYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK AND CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO               
VFR.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ga                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS ALONG WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES                
THIS WEEKEND.                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA PATTERN ACROSS NOAM              
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE ROCKIES...A RDG            
FROM HUDSON BAY AND NRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE PLAINS....AND A LOW OVER            
INDIANA. THIS LEFT A WEAK ERLY FLOW ACROSS UPPER MI. AT THE                     
SFC...WEAK NE FLOW ALSO PREVAILED SOUTH A LARGE RIDGE FROM NRN                  
CANADA THROUGH NRN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. IR LOOP SHOWED CLOUDS OVER              
UPPER MI HAD THINNED OUT LEAVING PATCHY MID CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE              
ERN CWA.                                                                        
TODAY...THE RUC/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING LINGERING              
850-700 MB MOISTURE EASTWARD OUT OF UPPER MI TODAY. SINCE THE CLOUDS            
WERE ALREADY PATCHY...EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH MIXING TO                  
AROUND 850 MB (TEMPS NEAR 3C) WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 60                
INLAND. WEAK ENE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP READINGS                  
CLOSER TO 50F NEAR THE SHORE.                                                   
TONIGHT AND FRI...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH SFC RIDGE            
AXIS THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO THE UPPER             
20S INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WEAK DOWNSLOPE SE FLOW OVER THE               
WEST WILL KEEP MIN READINGS A BIT HIGHER. A SHRTWV EMERGING FROM THE            
NRN PLAINS WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RDG BUT WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO              
THE WEST SO THAT ONLY DISSIPATING WAA CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE              
BRUSH THE WRN CWA. OTHERWISE...WEAK LOW LVL WAA AND SUNSHINE WILL               
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND.                                    
SAT INTO SUN...ALTHOUGH THE MDLS KEEP MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE             
WRN GREAT LAKES...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION            
AND 300K-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SURGE             
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND PORTIONS OF WEST UPPER MI ON SAT. THE                
CANADIAN GLOBAL ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO. AS THE MAIN SHRTWV               
LIFTS OUT OF THE SW CONUS 800-600 MB WARMING WILL LEAVE THE AREA                
UNDER A STRENGTHENING CAP...PER GFS FCST SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW...ONLY              
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA/TSRA POPS WERE INCLUDED OVER THE WEST SAT NIGHT              
INTO SUN...CLOSEST TO THE MOISTURE AXIS AND WHERE SOME ELEVATED                 
CONVECTION COULD MOVE IN AFTER DEVELOPING OVER MN (WHERE THE CAP                
WOULD BE WEAKER). FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WITH THE WARM AIR                 
SURGE MIXING TO 800 MB WOULD BOOST MAX READINGS TO AT LEAST 70 F.               
SO...TEMPS WERE RAISED SEVERAL NOTCHES TO NEAR 00Z GFS GUIDANCE                 
VALUES...WHICH MAY BE STILL BE TOO CONSERVATIVE...GIVEN THAT                    
READINGS WOULD BE ABOUT 20 F ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
435 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCE/TYPE TODAY ALONG WITH                        
CLOUDS/TEMPS.                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A TROF              
OVER THE WRN CONUS...A RDG FROM CO/NM TO NW ONTARIO...AND A DOMINANT            
NRN STREAM LOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH A TROUGH WESTWARD TOWARD A            
SMALLER LOW OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. A SRN STREAM TROUGH WAS ALSO              
MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE SE CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES            
OVER NRN ONTARIO AND HUDSON BAY WAS PUSHING NE WINDS THROUGH THE                
UPPER GREAT LAKES. KAPX RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF                
LIGHT RAIN OVER NRN LOWER AND ERN UPPER MI GRADUALLY SPREADING TO               
THE ESE. THE PCPN WAS SUPPORTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG 500-300 MB                
QVECTOR CONV ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN MID LEVEL LOW.               
TODAY...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM/GFS QVECTOR AND QPF PROGS                
SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF RAIN WILL GRAZE THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA             
WITH MORE PERSISTENT RAIN OR GREATER COVERAGE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH            
AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL LAPSWRF-ARW AN CANADIAN REG GEM                   
SCENARIO WHICH BRING SOME LIGHT PCPN TO KMQT-KIMT BY THIS AFTERNOON             
ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN TREND TOWARD SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW            
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO DEPICTED BY THE NAM/GFS. THICKER CLOUDS             
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FCST              
SNDGS DROP TEMPS IN THE SFC TO 800 MB LAYER ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW              
IN CENTRAL UPPER MI. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ALREADY NEAR                
40/30...LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CAA...AND MDLS RECENT HISTORY OF TOO            
MUCH LOW LEVEL COOLING WITH LIGHT PCPN...EXPECT MAINLY JUST RAIN.               
TONIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE PCPN WILL DEPARTS             
TO THE SOUTH...THE CLOUDS WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN.               
SO...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF QUITE AS FAR AS GUIDANCE                
VALUES.                                                                         
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A QUIET PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE WRN                 
GREAT LAKES ARE DOMINATED BY MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING IN AN                    
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                  
BRINGING IN DRYING/CLEARING FROM THE ENE THU. RADIATIONAL COOLING               
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER              
20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND            
850 TEMPS AROUND 2C SUGGEST MAX READINGS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 60                  
INLAND. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST AS WAA                
PATTERN DEVELOPS AND THE TAIL END OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE NRN             
PLAINS BRUSHES THE AREA.                                                        
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL MID              
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT                  
SLOWER IN BRINGING PCPN INTO UPPER MI. SO...ONLY SHOWER CHANCES WERE            
CONFINED TO WEST CWA SAT NIGHT. SUNDAY MAY ALSO END UP REMAINING DRY            
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST CWA PER 00Z/18 ECMWF AND GFS...BUT ENOUGH               
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHRTWV EMERGING FROM            
THE PLAINS AND THE PATTERN PROGRESSION TO KEEP LOWER CHANCE POPS                
GOING.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
230 PM MDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                 
FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES LIFTING FROM         
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO BIG SKY COUNTRY. COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP WITH THE        
MAIN SURFACE LOW SITTING IN NORTHERN WYOMING AND A STATIONARY                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NEAR BILLINGS TO JUST WEST OF                  
MALTA. EAST OF THIS FRONT A BROKEN CIRRIFORM DECK HAS BEEN                      
COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA THUS FAR ALTHOUGH TEMPS HAVE STILL                     
MANAGED TO WARM UP ENOUGH. IT APPEARS THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS            
STARTING TO NOSE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH AN EXPANDING TCU FIELD            
NEAR BILLINGS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS                    
NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST. LATEST RUC CYCLE CONTINUES TO                     
GENERATE SURFACE-BASED CAPES AS HIGH AS 1600J/KG BY THIS EVENING                
BEFORE BECOMING ELEVATED. NEWEST SPC SWODY1 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO                
SLIGHT RISK AND FEEL POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS IS REASONABLE              
GIVEN DECENT HODOGRAPH ARCING FROM 0-3KM.                                       
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY                   
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING BETTER LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TO                    
SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD. ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING IN STOCK THAT                      
RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS                        
REASONABLE. BY FRIDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIFTED INTO                    
SASKATCHEWAN AND POPS WERE CUT BACK EVEN FURTHER GIVEN REASONABLE MODEL         
AGREEMENT. LACK OF COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR               
TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. MCZ                                             
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                  
FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT                 
AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAJOR                  
STORM FOR THE SHORT TERM LIFTS INTO CENTRAL CANADA AT THE                       
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH TROF REMAINS OVER THE WEST.                    
WITH EASING OF BLOCK IN THE EAST...MODELS INDICATE SECOND                       
SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW MORE CONVENTIONAL TRACK FROM THE DESERT                     
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...KEEPING MOST SIGNIFICANT                    
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF MONTANA. SPLIT DEVELOPS IN THE FLOW               
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING TOWARD              
THE FOUR CORNERS AND CUTTING OFF AS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN                 
CANADA. FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                  
WITH FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW SEEMS REASONABLE SO MADE ONLY MINOR               
ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST. EBERT                                            
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...WITH ALL THE INTEREST IN THE                    
SHORT TERM...THE LONG TERM LOOKS QUIET AND BENIGN. NO MAJOR                     
SYSTEMS THREATEN OUR AREA...AND THICKNESSES...500 MB HEIGHTS...850              
MB TEMPS ALL INDICATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WITH LITTLE CHANGE THRU                 
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER PATTERN IS IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH ALL               
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING WELL TO OUR                   
SOUTH. LINGERING UPPER TROUGH AND SW FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA SAT MAY               
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE NOTHING VERY CLEAR CUT FOR                
ANY POPS WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS AFFECTING OUR AREA. THE NORTHERN                 
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT DOES HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVES OR TWO LATE IN THE              
PERIOD...NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO FOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND TIMING                  
THOUGH...SO WILL HAVE SUB-CLIMO POPS. NO BIG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS              
EITHER...SO GOING MIDDLE GROUND OF LOTS OF PARTLY CLOUDY                        
PERIODS...LOWERED MOST SKY COVER. SIMONSEN                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING. ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRIEFLY                  
DROPPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR. RAIN WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND              
POSSIBLY VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD BY                      
THURSDAY MORNING. RAE                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR FORT PECK LAKE.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</pre> mt                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
1125 AM PDT WED APR 18 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN                 
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT TODAY USHERING IN MUCH COOLER                     
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN STORMS                
THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND                
COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. YET ANOTHER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT             
THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...OBSERVATIONS AT 1730Z INDICATED ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST              
WINDS OVER CENTRAL NYE AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES BEHIND THE                  
FRONT. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE LINCOLN COUNTY AND             
EXTENDED UNTIL 5 PM FOR ESMERALDA/CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE LATEST              
PRESSURE GRADIENT TRENDS DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVELS               
OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO               
EXPIRE AT 11 AM PDT.                                                            
1005 AM PDT UPDATE...NORTHWEST WINDS WERE SPREADING INTO THE                    
NORTHWEST PART OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AT 1630Z BEHIND THE FRONT                
SLIDING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST               
RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND BOTH SHOW WINDS            
DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SRN UTAH QUICKLY            
SHIFTS EAST. WINDS SHOULD BRIEFLY GUST OVER 40 MPH IN SOME AREAS                
THEN DECREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE            
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 11 AM FOR ALL BUT SAN            
BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE RUNNING                
HIGH IN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING...OVER 30 PERCENT...BUT VERY DRY             
AIR IS EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TEENS IN               
CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY AND EVEN BELOW ZERO BEHIND THE FRONT IN                    
NORTHWEST CLARK. THIS DRY AIR SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD INTO MOHAVE                 
COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND VERIFY THE               
RED FLAG WARNING. &&                                                            
.AVIATION...FOR KLAS: GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
MID AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15               
AND 25 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW LOW                 
LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR 10K FT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.                 
THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST                 
CALIFORNIA: GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY             
AT KDAG AND KEED WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS              
WILL CONTINUE AT KDRA AND KVGT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. SCATTERED TO            
LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6 AND 8K FT OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE             
INYO/NYE/LINCOLN AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THIN                
CIRRUS OVER SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...422 AM PDT WED APR 18 2007...                                
SHORT TERM...STRONG COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM BISHOP-ELY-WENDOVER                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE              
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PRECEDING THE               
COLD FRONT CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA.              
JETSTREAK OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL HELP ENHANCE WIND GUSTS ACROSS              
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA DURING THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.                
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO HEADLINES WAS TO CANCEL HIGH WIND WARNING            
FOR CA ZONES 519 AND 520. WILL REPLACE WARNING WITH AN ADVISORY AS              
EXPECT PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. AS                 
STATED REST OF ADVISORIES LEFT ALONE. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ALONG COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WITH               
MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD POOL ALOFT UNDER               
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. SYSTEM PULLS EAST TONIGHT              
LEAVING AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN            
CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY. TROUGH CONTINUES INLAND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS            
SPREADING EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL END WITH SKIES                  
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH PROGRESSES             
EAST INTO ARIZONA.                                                              
.LONG TERM....LONG TERM...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE             
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL            
AS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA ON FRIDAY                   
MORNING...WITH THE H500 LOW CENTER LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL                
CALIFORNIA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE             
LOW CENTER QUICKLY PASSING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA DURING THIS STORM WITH             
GOOD MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS BULLSEYED RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG               
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES             
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL HELP LIMIT            
CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY UNTIL A TRAILING SYSTEM                
MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW THIS SYSTEM APPEARS             
TO HOLD A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES CLOSE TO 0.7 INCHES               
PROGGED ACROSS THE CWA. THINGS WILL THEN CLEAR UP AGAIN LATE MONDAY             
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWEST               
ARIZONA TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP OR LOWER TO BELOW THE              
CRITICAL 15 PERCENT VALUE WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHWEST                
ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FROM 9 AM UNTIL 7 PM MST             
FOR ARIZONA ZONE 102. LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES SHOULD CLOSELY                   
MONITOR THE SITUATION AS ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON             
ANY FIRE STARTS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM ZONES 14 AND 15.                                 
.AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM ZONES 1 AND 3.                                   
      RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM UNTIL 7 PM AZ FIRE WX ZONE 102.                
.CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM WEDNESDAY ZONES 523-526. &&                      
$$                                                                              
ADAIR/SALMEN/PIERCE/KENNEDY                                                     
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</pre> nv                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
730 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
SOME SCT CLDS THIS EVE OTRW MAINLY CLR SKIES OVRNGT AND INTO FRI.               
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHD PRECLUDE FOG                       
FORMATION OVR NGT. GNRLY WINDS WILL BE LGT AND HAVE LTL EFFECT ON               
OPS.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 209 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
TAKING THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH            
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND PUSHING IT EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE              
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLOCK WILL FLATTEN. WE WILL REMAIN EAST              
OF THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH               
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. MINOR AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY SOME WEAK MID LEVEL                      
IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SFC RIDGE                  
NEARING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE               
WELL /10F/ ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.               
THIS EVENING...THE RUC AND NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF                  
ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z                  
TONIGHT. NAM/RUC RH PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF MID                   
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY IMPACTING OUR                 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE                       
EVENING...CAN`T SEE THIS WAVE DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN DELAYING                 
THE TRANSITION FROM PCLOUDY TO MCLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER THIS WAVE DEPARTS...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY                      
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB. MODELS BRING A                   
PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING            
FOR A WONDERFUL DAY. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY WITH A STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GOOD MIXING TO 850 WILL TAP ANY WINDS IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE GRADIENT                   
WON`T BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO NOTHING MORE THAN 20-25MPH                
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. T850 RANGES FROM +4-6C IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH              
WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE L/MID 60S...AND WE`LL LEAN TOWARDS THE                  
WARMER END BASED ON HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP WITH              
THE TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY GET A              
CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE U20S/L30S               
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS DROP THE DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY WITH OVER-LAND                      
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBS FROM OUR CANADIAN NEIGHBORS AND                
EVEN THOSE OVER NEW ENGLAND INDICATE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE                
TEENS. THINK THIS STRONG LLEVEL DRYING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                      
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NICELY                       
TONIGHT...PROBABLY COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL                   
GENERALLY FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE. THESE DRY READINGS...ALONG WITH A                
LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING A PROBLEM.                        
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. RH                  
PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING IN                 
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY/MSUNNY AND              
WITH T850 BETWEEN 5-6C HIGHS AROUND U60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK GOOD.                
ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING IS AGAIN EXPECTED...WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL                  
LESSEN THE WINDS EVEN MORE...15MPH OR LESS EVEN IN GUSTS. LLEVEL                
RHS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES TAKE MORE OF A TRACK OVER THE LAKES.                    
THIS INCREASED LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS SATURDAY                   
NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING RATHER THAN AT/JUST BELOW.                                             
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY ON                     
SUNDAY AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. ALTHOUGH WELL                 
NORTH OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY FILTER IN FROM               
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE DAY WILL STILL TURN OUT MSUNNY. WITH T850              
REACHING 6-7C...U60S/L70S ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA.                  
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AS THE CREST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE                 
MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY MILD WEATHER.               
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS.                                        
AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE                
ENOUGH...SO THAT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN                
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                     
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
BAINBRIDGE AND CONKLIN STILL THE PRIMARY SITES OF CONCERN WITH                  
CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS AND BAINBRIDGE VERY NEAR IT. RIVERS CONTINUE              
TO BE FED BY SNOWMELT...BUT THIS WILL COME TO AN END SOON. WAVERLY              
ALSO FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO FS TOMORROW. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AS               
THE ARE ATTM...BUT EXPECT RIVERS TO BEGIN TO FALL ESPECIALLY AS WE              
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOST AND WE SEE AN              
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. AGAIN...ONLY VERY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DGM                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
209 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
TAKING THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH            
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND PUSHING IT EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE              
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLOCK WILL FLATTEN. WE WILL REMAIN EAST              
OF THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH               
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. MINOR AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY SOME WEAK MID LEVEL                      
IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SFC RIDGE                  
NEARING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE               
WELL /10F/ ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.               
THIS EVENING...THE RUC AND NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF                  
ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z                  
TONIGHT. NAM/RUC RH PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF MID                   
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY IMPACTING OUR                 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE                       
EVENING...CAN`T SEE THIS WAVE DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN DELAYING                 
THE TRANSITION FROM PCLOUDY TO MCLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER THIS WAVE DEPARTS...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY                      
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB. MODELS BRING A                   
PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING            
FOR A WONDERFUL DAY. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY WITH A STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GOOD MIXING TO 850 WILL TAP ANY WINDS IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE GRADIENT                   
WON`T BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO NOTHING MORE THAN 20-25MPH                
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. T850 RANGES FROM +4-6C IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH              
WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE L/MID 60S...AND WE`LL LEAN TOWARDS THE                  
WARMER END BASED ON HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP WITH              
THE TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY GET A              
CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE U20S/L30S               
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS DROP THE DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY WITH OVER-LAND                      
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBS FROM OUR CANADIAN NEIGHBORS AND                
EVEN THOSE OVER NEW ENGLAND INDICATE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE                
TEENS. THINK THIS STRONG LLEVEL DRYING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                      
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NICELY                       
TONIGHT...PROBABLY COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL                   
GENERALLY FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE. THESE DRY READINGS...ALONG WITH A                
LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING A PROBLEM.                        
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. RH                  
PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING IN                 
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY/MSUNNY AND              
WITH T850 BETWEEN 5-6C HIGHS AROUND U60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK GOOD.                
ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING IS AGAIN EXPECTED...WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL                  
LESSEN THE WINDS EVEN MORE...15MPH OR LESS EVEN IN GUSTS. LLEVEL                
RHS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES TAKE MORE OF A TRACK OVER THE LAKES.                    
THIS INCREASED LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS SATURDAY                   
NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING RATHER THAN AT/JUST BELOW.                                             
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY ON                     
SUNDAY AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. ALTHOUGH WELL                 
NORTH OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY FILTER IN FROM               
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE DAY WILL STILL TURN OUT MSUNNY. WITH T850              
REACHING 6-7C...U60S/L70S ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA.                  
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AS THE CREST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE                 
MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY MILD WEATHER.               
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS.                                        
AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE                
ENOUGH...SO THAT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN                
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /191800Z-201800Z/...                                                  
VFR WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.        
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME LIGHT                     
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO ABOUT 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY                 
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
BAINBRIDGE AND CONKLIN STILL THE PRIMARY SITES OF CONCERN WITH                  
CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS AND BAINBRIDGE VERY NEAR IT. RIVERS CONTINUE              
TO BE FED BY SNOWMELT...BUT THIS WILL COME TO AN END SOON. WAVERLY              
ALSO FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO FS TOMORROW. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AS               
THE ARE ATTM...BUT EXPECT RIVERS TO BEGIN TO FALL ESPECIALLY AS WE              
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOST AND WE SEE AN              
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. AGAIN...ONLY VERY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JMA                                                                
LONG TERM...MLJ                                                                 
AVIATION...MLJ                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...JMA                                                                 
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
124 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY MILD WEATHER.               
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS.                                        
AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE                
ENOUGH...SO THAT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN                
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. -MJ                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
VFR WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.        
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME LIGHT                     
OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO ABOUT 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY                 
MORNING. -MJ                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1007 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL UPDATE TO BOOST TEMPS JUST A TAD AS PRETTY MUCH FULL MIXING                
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING VIS                    
IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW PRETTY GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING.                
T925 AT 12Z WAS ABOUT 3C...BUT SHORT TERM RUC/NAM FORECASTS SHOW                
925 WARMING TOWARDS 6-7C TODAY..WHICH WOULD GIVE U50S UNDER FULL                
MIXING. WILL USE U50S IN THE NORTH...BUT MORE LIKE M50S OVER                    
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER.                    
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS WE                 
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. -JMA                                                   
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
WARNINGS CONTINUE AT CONKLIN/BAINBRIDGE WITH CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS              
AND BAINBRIDGE RIGHT AT FS. WILL SEE HOW THESE POINTS RESPOND TO                
SNOWMELT TODAY TO DETERMINE HOW LONG THE MINOR FLOODING WILL                    
CONTINUE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WAVERLY TODAY AS WELL...AS NEW                
FORECASTS BRING THIS POINT CLOSE...BUT NOT QUITE TO FLOOD STAGE                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT. -JMA                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 636 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NY STATE, HELPING              
SPUR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION. A BROKEN VFR DECK IS                      
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY                
FOG AT KITH THROUGH 15Z.                                                        
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.                   
EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AT KSYR AND KRME AROUND 16Z. IT WILL                
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL 19Z-21Z FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TO SCATTER                
OUT.                                                                            
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.  DJP                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 223 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THE EASTERN CYCLONE IS FINALLY EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE,                 
ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TO RUSH IN FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
WE WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUDS              
BROKE UP DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE POWER OF THE MID APRIL               
SUN WAS ON DISPLAY. JUST A BIT OF HEATING THREW TEMPERATURES                    
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.                                                 
WE HAVE TO ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT                
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH UPSTATE NY IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH                   
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF BGM BY             
MID MORNING, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN NVA. WITH DRYING ALREADY              
EXPECTED, THURSDAY SHOULD END UP WITH BRIGHTER SKIES THAN DID                   
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS PACKAGE WITH MAXES               
ANTICIPATED IN THE 50S. THERE IS SOME UPSIDE RISK, ESPECIALLY OVER              
THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL               
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DRYING THROUGH DOWN SLOPING WINDS, AND THEY WILL             
ALSO BE THE FIRST TO ENTER THE NVA REGION. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO              
SEE AN UPGRADE OF TEMPS NEEDED FROM SYR OVER TO RME...PERHAPS 60?               
IF NOT TODAY, THEN CERTAINLY FRIDAY.                                            
THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT                   
WILL BE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL                 
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. GIVEN UPSTREAM MAXES AND AMPLE               
SUNSHINE, THINK MID 60S WILL BE EASY TO ATTAIN. IT IS ALWAYS                    
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAT FIRST STRETCH OF 70+ TEMPS, AND MOS                  
SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH IT MIGHTILY. IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY                
WE COULD GET THERE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  DJP                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUIET                
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND                 
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.                                                 
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR                    
TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ONCE THIS FRONT                  
ARRIVES...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL            
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1007 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO BOOST TEMPS JUST A TAD AS PRETTY MUCH FULL MIXING                
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING VIS                    
IMAGERY AND AREA WEBCAMS SHOW PRETTY GOOD CLEARING THIS MORNING.                
T925 AT 12Z WAS ABOUT 3C...BUT SHORT TERM RUC/NAM FORECASTS SHOW                
925 WARMING TOWARDS 6-7C TODAY..WHICH WOULD GIVE U50S UNDER FULL                
MIXING. WILL USE U50S IN THE NORTH...BUT MORE LIKE M50S OVER                    
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL HOLD ON LONGER.                    
CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS WE                 
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON. -JMA                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WARNINGS CONTINUE AT CONKLIN/BAINBRIDGE WITH CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS              
AND BAINBRIDGE RIGHT AT FS. WILL SEE HOW THESE POINTS RESPOND TO                
SNOWMELT TODAY TO DETERMINE HOW LONG THE MINOR FLOODING WILL                    
CONTINUE. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH WAVERLY TODAY AS WELL...AS NEW                
FORECASTS BRING THIS POINT CLOSE...BUT NOT QUITE TO FLOOD STAGE                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT. -JMA                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 636 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NY STATE, HELPING              
SPUR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION. A BROKEN VFR DECK IS                      
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY                
FOG AT KITH THROUGH 15Z.                                                        
CLEARING WILL SLOWLY WORK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.                   
EXPECT SKIES TO SCATTER OUT AT KSYR AND KRME AROUND 16Z. IT WILL                
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL 19Z-21Z FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS TO SCATTER                
OUT.                                                                            
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT.  DJP                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 223 AM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THE EASTERN CYCLONE IS FINALLY EXITING THE ATLANTIC COAST LINE,                 
ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TO RUSH IN FROM THE               
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
WE WERE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUDS              
BROKE UP DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE POWER OF THE MID APRIL               
SUN WAS ON DISPLAY. JUST A BIT OF HEATING THREW TEMPERATURES                    
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST.                                                 
WE HAVE TO ANTICIPATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORT                
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH UPSTATE NY IS PROVIDING THE REGION WITH                   
CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE SOUTH OF BGM BY             
MID MORNING, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN NVA. WITH DRYING ALREADY              
EXPECTED, THURSDAY SHOULD END UP WITH BRIGHTER SKIES THAN DID                   
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE THIS PACKAGE WITH MAXES               
ANTICIPATED IN THE 50S. THERE IS SOME UPSIDE RISK, ESPECIALLY OVER              
THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING WILL               
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DRYING THROUGH DOWN SLOPING WINDS, AND THEY WILL             
ALSO BE THE FIRST TO ENTER THE NVA REGION. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO              
SEE AN UPGRADE OF TEMPS NEEDED FROM SYR OVER TO RME...PERHAPS 60?               
IF NOT TODAY, THEN CERTAINLY FRIDAY.                                            
THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RESULT                   
WILL BE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL                 
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME. GIVEN UPSTREAM MAXES AND AMPLE               
SUNSHINE, THINK MID 60S WILL BE EASY TO ATTAIN. IT IS ALWAYS                    
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THAT FIRST STRETCH OF 70+ TEMPS, AND MOS                  
SEEMS TO STRUGGLE WITH IT MIGHTILY. IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY                
WE COULD GET THERE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  DJP                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUIET                
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND                 
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.                                                 
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR                    
TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ONCE THIS FRONT                  
ARRIVES...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL            
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY....NONE.                                                                     
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIMES IN AVIATION SECTION                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
124 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...QUIET                
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND                 
GENERALLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS.                                                 
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR                    
TUESDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ONCE THIS FRONT                  
ARRIVES...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STALL            
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WE`LL MAINTAIN THE              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. -MJ                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. BRIEF                     
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT                         
KELM...KITH...AND KBGM.                                                         
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...SOME DETERIORATION IS                        
ANTICIPATED...MAINLY AT KBGM...KELM...KITH...AND KAVP. MVFR                     
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD AT THESE TERMINALS.                
BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE...AS              
DRIER AIR COMES BACK INTO THE REGION. -MJ                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1116 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL ISSUE A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO BUMP THE TEMPS UP ONE MORE                  
TIME. THE RUC NICELY SHOWS AN AREA OF NVA ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA              
ATTM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO CONTINUE INTO               
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIXING TO 925 WHICH...GIVEN                    
CURRENT TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 45-50                 
RANGE. STILL FEEL THE DAY WILL END UP MCLOUDY...BUT HAVE LOWERED                
SKY COVERAGE A BIT TO REFLECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.             
ZONES/GRIDS ARE OUT. -JMA                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 950 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO UP TEMPS AND DROP POPS FOR THE DAYTIME                   
HOURS TODAY. A HOLE IN THE CLOUDINESS FROM SYR TO RME HAS ALLOWED               
TEMPS TO MOVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL                    
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE M40S. T925 WOULD SUPPORT U40S IF WE COULD                 
GET MIXING TO THAT LEVEL...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY PLACE TO END THE                
DAY BETTER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY...SO WILL UNDERCUT THIS VALUE JUST A              
TAD. THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE SNOWPACK.                             
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NIL THIS MORNING...OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE                   
SPRINKLE. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND                  
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM WEST AROUND THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC                
VORTEX...COULD SEE SOME SHRA POP UP. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE                   
UNDER WEAK NVA HOWEVER. SO...HAVE USED ISO WORDING EXCEPT OVER OUR              
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY TO BETTER MOISTURE...AND THE                  
APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE FOR A                
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE.                                                         
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
STILL WATCHING CONKLIN THIS MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED CREST VERY                 
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. NOTHING MORE THAN VERY MINOR                 
FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED HERE. OUTSIDE OF THIS...RIVERS ARE HIGH              
BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.                                           
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.  -JMA                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 625 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE                
OVER REGION REMAINS FIXED IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WILL FORECAST                    
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME TEMPO IFR ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.                    
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 7-10 KTS.                                            
EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO 3500-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  DJP                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE                
TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE, POLAR AIR, AND WEAK IMPULSES OVER OUR                    
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                   
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.                  
A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW                  
MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING MAINLY RW- AS LIFT IS WEAK,            
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SOME DRYING                   
TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE                 
CHC POPS OVER EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR               
DRY CONDITIONS, AND A RISING CEILING, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER              
SEVERAL DEGREES WELL INTO THE 40S.                                              
THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS LATE THURSDAY WHEN CYCLONE PULLS EAST                
AND CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BUILDS INTO LOWER MI AND OH. THE                       
COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND RISING THICKNESS SHOULD               
LEAD TO A RATHER DRAMATIC RISE IN TEMPERATURES. FIRST GUESS IS A                
MAX RANGE OF 57-62 ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK IS TO THE UPSIDE IF              
THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT INTO WESTERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DJP                 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL SOUTH              
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC                   
BEGINS TO PULL EAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH                   
AMERICAN CONTINENT. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THIS PATTERN               
SHIFTS EAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                  
THE MODERATING WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW UNTIL THE CREST OF THE SFC               
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS              
DOESN`T APPEAR TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER                 
THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY MOVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.               
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                     
ALLOWING BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FCST                      
AREA...LIKELY BRINGING US OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.                               
MOST OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE PCP FREE. THERE COULD BE A                     
RESIDUAL SHOWER ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT POINT...THE                  
NEXT CHC FOR PCP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY...AND MORE LIKELY                   
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE PCP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT                   
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN.                         
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
CONKLIN MAY APRCH FS THIS AFTN, OTRW NO PRBLMS ARE                              
XPCTD IN THE SHORT TERM. PTRN OF GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS WILL FAVOR              
A NICE, SLOW RELEASE OF THE SNOWPACK CRNTLY OVER THE FCST AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1116 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL ISSUE A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO BUMP THE TEMPS UP ONE MORE                  
TIME. THE RUC NICELY SHOWS AN AREA OF NVA ROTATING TOWARDS OUR CWA              
ATTM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE TO CONTINUE INTO               
THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MIXING TO 925 WHICH...GIVEN                    
CURRENT TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE 45-50                 
RANGE. STILL FEEL THE DAY WILL END UP MCLOUDY...BUT HAVE LOWERED                
SKY COVERAGE A BIT TO REFLECT MORE IN THE WAY OF FILTERED SUNSHINE.             
ZONES/GRIDS ARE OUT. -JMA                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 950 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO UP TEMPS AND DROP POPS FOR THE DAYTIME                   
HOURS TODAY. A HOLE IN THE CLOUDINESS FROM SYR TO RME HAS ALLOWED               
TEMPS TO MOVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL                    
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE M40S. T925 WOULD SUPPORT U40S IF WE COULD                 
GET MIXING TO THAT LEVEL...BUT DON`T EXPECT ANY PLACE TO END THE                
DAY BETTER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY...SO WILL UNDERCUT THIS VALUE JUST A              
TAD. THIS ALSO GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO THE SNOWPACK.                             
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NIL THIS MORNING...OUTSIDE OF A POSSIBLE                   
SPRINKLE. THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND                  
MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM WEST AROUND THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC                
VORTEX...COULD SEE SOME SHRA POP UP. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE                   
UNDER WEAK NVA HOWEVER. SO...HAVE USED ISO WORDING EXCEPT OVER OUR              
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE PROXIMITY TO BETTER MOISTURE...AND THE                  
APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE FOR A                
LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE.                                                         
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
STILL WATCHING CONKLIN THIS MORNING WITH AN EXPECTED CREST VERY                 
CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING. NOTHING MORE THAN VERY MINOR                 
FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED HERE. OUTSIDE OF THIS...RIVERS ARE HIGH              
BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.                                           
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ARE OUT.  -JMA                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 625 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
WIDESPREAD OVERCAST CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE                
OVER REGION REMAINS FIXED IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WILL FORECAST                    
MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH SOME TEMPO IFR ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.                    
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT 7-10 KTS.                                            
EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TO 3500-4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  DJP                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE                
TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE, POLAR AIR, AND WEAK IMPULSES OVER OUR                    
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH                   
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY.                  
A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FLOW WILL GENERATE A FEW                  
MORE SHOWERS TONIGHT. WE ARE FORECASTING MAINLY RW- AS LIFT IS WEAK,            
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. SOME DRYING                   
TAKES PLACE ON THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE                 
CHC POPS OVER EASTERN FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR               
DRY CONDITIONS, AND A RISING CEILING, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER              
SEVERAL DEGREES WELL INTO THE 40S.                                              
THE PATTERN FINALLY BREAKS LATE THURSDAY WHEN CYCLONE PULLS EAST                
AND CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE BUILDS INTO LOWER MI AND OH. THE                       
COMBINATION OF RAPIDLY CLEARING SKIES AND RISING THICKNESS SHOULD               
LEAD TO A RATHER DRAMATIC RISE IN TEMPERATURES. FIRST GUESS IS A                
MAX RANGE OF 57-62 ACROSS THE REGION. THE RISK IS TO THE UPSIDE IF              
THE RIDGE AXIS MAKES IT INTO WESTERN NY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DJP                 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PINWHEEL SOUTH              
OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC                   
BEGINS TO PULL EAST AS AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH                   
AMERICAN CONTINENT. AS WE MOVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THIS PATTERN               
SHIFTS EAST WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.                  
THE MODERATING WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW UNTIL THE CREST OF THE SFC               
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THIS              
DOESN`T APPEAR TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER                 
THIS POINT...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY MOVE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.               
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK                     
ALLOWING BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE FCST                      
AREA...LIKELY BRINGING US OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER.                               
MOST OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE PCP FREE. THERE COULD BE A                     
RESIDUAL SHOWER ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AFTER THAT POINT...THE                  
NEXT CHC FOR PCP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY...AND MORE LIKELY                   
TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE PCP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK DOES NOT                   
APPEAR TO BE HEAVY. IT WILL ALSO TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN.                         
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
CONKLIN MAY APRCH FS THIS AFTN, OTRW NO PRBLMS ARE                              
XPCTD IN THE SHORT TERM. PTRN OF GRADUALLY RISING TEMPS WILL FAVOR              
A NICE, SLOW RELEASE OF THE SNOWPACK CRNTLY OVER THE FCST AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1108 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS INDICATE A                    
WEAKENING MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING ESE THROUGH THE MID                   
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN TN VALLEY LATE MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE                     
REFLECTION WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL GA (1006 MB). A SURFACE HIGH                
(1022 MB) WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 12Z. THE RIDGING                
EXTENDED EAST THROUGH NY STATE... THEN SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN                   
SEABOARD INTO NC. THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO                 
CONTINUE ADVANCING ESE ACROSS GA TODAY AND OFFSHORE OF THE SC                   
COAST TONIGHT.                                                                  
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER AIR SYSTEM... SEEN NEAR CHICAGO AT 12Z...                
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT                 
AND THURSDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST STATES                 
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD                
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NC AS OF 1100 AM. ONLY THE                  
AREAS FROM HALIFAX AND TARBORO WERE STILL CLEAR. RADAR INDICATED                
SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL RETURNS OVER WESTERN NC... WITH ONLY A FEW                
SPRINKLES OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND                        
MOUNTAINS. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S NE                 
(ROANOKE RAPIDS) INTO THE MID 60S SOUTHWEST (WADESBORO AND                      
ROCKINGHAM). DEW POINTS RANGED IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.                     
SURFACE WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH... EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS                
TO NEAR 15 MPH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.                                          
LATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL                    
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE REGIONAL 12Z                   
RAOBS AND LATEST NAM/RUC SHORT TERM FORECASTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW               
SPRINKLES... ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BUT WILL                      
CONTINUE WITH NON MEASURABLE EVENT FOR TODAY.                                   
THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD BACK A BIT DUE TO THE THICKNESS OF                
THE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OUR REGION. THE LATE APRIL SUN              
IS VERY STRONG... SO ANY THIN SPOTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP A FEW              
DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF GOING ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE               
LOOKS GOOD. I WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND AND RAISE THEM A FEW MORE                
DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE                
HAS BEEN VERIFYING 4-6 DEGREES TOO COOL RECENTLY. EXPECT TO SEE                 
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN                     
COASTAL PLAIN... RANGING INTO LOWER 70S SOUTH CENTRAL.                          
THE NEXT UPPER AIR SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO              
DIVE SE TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE                  
TRENDS HAVE REDUCED THE POP AND QPF FOR THIS EVENT... WHICH DID                 
NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO LOWER                
POP AND REDUCE CURRENT QPF IF LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT              
TRENDS. MORE ON THIS LATER.                                                     
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. -BADGETT                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 307 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
BEGINNING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL            
NC, SOME OF IT OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. UPPER LEVEL LOW IN VICINITY              
OF LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL PROGGED TO WEAKEN/SHEAR             
APART AS IT TRAVERSES E-SE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE U.S. LATER              
TODAY/TONIGHT. MAIN AFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM ON CENTRAL NC WILL BE               
EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY AS AIRMASS BELOW 700MB TOO DRY TO               
ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND PLUS DYNAMICS TO GENERATE PRECIP               
WEAKENING AS SYSTEM MOVES EWD. OPAQUENESS OF CLOUDS WILL PLAY SOME              
ROLE IN MAX TEMPS TODAY. CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE AVERAGING A COUPLE             
OF DEGREES WARMER THAN PROGGED AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL               
SUNSHINE TODAY WILL GO WITH FULL SUN VALUES FROM LOW LEVEL                      
THICKNESSES. THIS GIVES MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S NE TO            
THE UPPER 60S WEST AND SOUTH (NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS).                
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATING AROUND DEEP VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST            
WILL MOVE SEWD TODAY AND TONIGHT AND SHOULD APPROACH WESTERN NC LATE            
TONIGHT/THU. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH             
THIS SYSTEM AND TEND TO KEEP BEST LIFT/DEEPEST MOISTURE ON THE                  
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NC. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING                      
WESTWARD WITH TRACK AND THIS TREND PERSIST IN THE LATEST RUN. DUE TO            
THIS TREND, HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR             
NE PIEDMONT. IF WESTWARD SHIFTS CONTINUES AND VERIFIES, LOW LIKELY              
POPS FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE TOO HIGH.                     
STILL DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM AS COOL               
POOL OF -22 TO -25 DEGREES C AT H5 SETTLES OVER REGION THU. HOWEVER             
LOWEST 5-10K FT OF ATMOSPHERE VERY STABLE. THUS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED            
WITH T-STORM POTENTIAL. TEMPTED TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER FROM                 
FORECAST BUT SINCE SYSTEM IN VICINITY WHEN HEATING OF AIRMASS AT ITS            
PRIME, WILL LEAVE IN. THICKER CLOUD COVERAGE AND A STEADY N-NE                  
SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.               
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD THU NIGHT. BY 00Z FRI...APPEARS BEST              
SHOT AT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH                  
THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHED BY 06Z. CLOUDS GRADUALLY DEPART FRI AS                
SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL MIX DRIER AIR TOWARD THE                
SURFACE. THUS EXPECT DECENT DISPLAY OF SUN FRI AFTERNOON. DEEP NLY              
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL FOR MID APRIL. (LOW-MID                  
60S).                                                                           
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MODERATING TREND TO BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT                 
WEEK. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION FROM THE S-SW AS DEEP            
VORTEX OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST FINALLY LIFTS E-NE. NO RAIN ANTICIPATED            
THROUGH TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM S/W               
STALLS TO OUR N-NW MON-TUE                                                      
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
AN OCCLUDED MID AND UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND GULF            
COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE                  
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED SHEARED VORT.                 
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS                   
MORNING...WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AT AROUND 15KFT BY THE               
AFTERNOON. A MORE ROBUST MID AND UPPER CYCLONE...CURRENTLY OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION THIS EVENING.           
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE                
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS UPPER WAVE RE-ESTABLISHES LOW-LEVEL NE                 
MARITIME FEED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS               
WEAK SFC RIDGE FROM THE NORTH EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL NC AS A WEAK SFC             
LOW PASSES SW OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE LATE IN THE DAY            
AND IN THE EVENING.                                                             
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...            
BULK OF STRONGER DYNAMICS WILL STAY SW OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...              
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND                    
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN TAF                
SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA.            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT                                                            
</pre> nc                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1002 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007                                                     
.UPDATE...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK BUT WILL NEED TO TWEAK                  
POP/WX AND WIND GRIDS A BIT. 12Z NAM/RUC SHOWING NO PRCIP INTO THE              
FA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. CONSIDERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND EXPECTED                  
NORTH PROPAGATION OF UPPER LOW TO THE WEST...THIS MAKES SENSE.                  
WILL REMOVE 30 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE W FA. CURRENT                 
FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS REASONABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE FA...BUT                   
WILL INCREASE GUSTS A BIT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING ADIABATIC LAYER              
TO 850MB WITH WINDS IN THIS LAYER INCREASING TO 20-30KTS FROM THE               
VALLEY EAST. WEST OF THE VALLEY...850MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35KTS.                
ADJUSTED WIND GUST GRID ACCORDINGLY. STILL THINKING NO WIND                     
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE W FA...BUT WILL MONITOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US                   
RESPECTIVELY. TWO SHORT WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LONGWAVE                 
TROUGH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OMEGA BLOCK             
OVER ONTARIO WILL BREAK DOWN WITH HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT             
COUPLE DAYS THEN EAST AFTER SUN. DRY AIR FORM OMEGA BLOCK WILL SHIFT            
NORTH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND                  
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                                           
GFS CROSS SECTION SHOWING BAND OF COLD ADVECTION FROM 850 TO 500 HPA            
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER AIR CHART                  
SHOWING COLD AIR ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN            
WEST. 60 TO 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS NOTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF TROUGH              
AT 700 HPA. THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE            
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND THE HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UT WILL            
ROTATE NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN MT TODAY AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA                 
TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY             
THIS EVENING WITH JET DIVING EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.               
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER UT ROTATING                      
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE MIXING RATIOS INCREASING FROM THE              
SOUTHEAST WITH WI...IL AND IA CLOUD DECK. OTHERWISE HIGHER SURFACE              
MIXING RATIOS WERE ALONG THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.                    
BRIEF RESPITE FRI WITH UPPER RIDGE TO TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE AREA.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT.                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
TEMPS TWEAKED.                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS OVER WI IL AND EASTERN IA MOVING WEST AND             
NORTHWEST. MODEL TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN ZONES              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</pre> nd                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
413 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                   
COMPLEX UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN WITH NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL                 
LOW TO DEVELOP SOUTH THRU INDIANA TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE ESE INTO               
CENTRAL KY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AXIS OF FAVORABLE 925MB CONVERGENCE           
TO DEVELOP ACRS THE SW PORTION OF THE FA THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY              
IS THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH ELEVATED CAPES AOB 300 J/KG. EXPECTING              
RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL                    
FORCING DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CHC POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT                 
WITH LIMITED SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS THIS EVENING ACRS NE KY AND                    
EXTREME SW OHIO.                                                                
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL THU/THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE                   
OF THIS UPPER LOW. HAVE LINGERED A CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS THE SOUTH                
MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EXPECT DECREASING SKIES THU NIGHT WITH SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FROST MAY BE PSBL                  
BY FRI MORNING MAINLY ACRS THE FAR NW WHERE WINDS WL BE THE                     
LIGHTEST AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE             
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HEADLINE.                                             
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY              
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKY                  
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.                                                              
TEMP WISE...HAVE DEVIATED LITTLE FROM MAV GUID THRU THE PERIOD...               
GENERALLY GOING AT OR SLIGHTLY BLOW THE GUID THRU THE PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW                 
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT                  
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE FRONT BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG A                
ZONAL UPPER FLOW...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ON                 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WENT             
ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE CLOSE TO HPC VALUES.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 220 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                           
LOW LEVEL FORCING HELPING TO INITIATE/MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION                  
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SW PART OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS                       
INDICATED BY LATEST 88D IMAGERY. RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SW SECTIONS INTO EARLY THURSDAY               
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SW TAF                   
SITES AS THIS LOW-LEVEL FORCING COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED 50H LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS IN.                   
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SW PART              
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...ONLY CB HAS BEEN INSERTED IN              
BOTH THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS FOR 21Z TO 01Z. OTHER THAN THE                      
PRECIP...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS WILL BE A PROBLEM BEGINNING                 
LATER TONIGHT. THERE AREA SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS                
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SE THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT               
HAVE NOT FORECAST LOWER THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING LATER                  
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR                   
CONDITIONS COULD BE OBSERVED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
220 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
LOW LEVEL FORCING HELPING TO INITIATE/MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION                  
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SW PART OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA AS                       
INDICATED BY LATEST 88D IMAGERY. RUC/NAM MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL               
CONVERGENCE PERSISTING ACROSS OUR SW SECTIONS INTO EARLY THURSDAY               
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE SW TAF                   
SITES AS THIS LOW-LEVEL FORCING COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLOSED 50H LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS IN.                   
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO THE EXTREME SW PART              
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT...ONLY CB HAS BEEN INSERTED IN              
BOTH THE KCVG AND KLUK TAFS FOR 21Z TO 01Z. OTHER THAN THE                      
PRECIP...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS WILL BE A PROBLEM BEGINNING                 
LATER TONIGHT. THERE AREA SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA AS                
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR SE THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT               
HAVE NOT FORECAST LOWER THAN MVFR RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING LATER                  
TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR                   
CONDITIONS COULD BE OBSERVED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1208 PM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                        
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST ILN 88D IMAGERY SHOWING VERY WEAK ECHO RETURNS ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAKENING TREND.                    
APPEARS THAT AN W-E AXIS OF WEAK 70H CONVERGENCE HELPING TO                     
TRIGGER THIS CONVECTION. AT BEST...THIS CONVECTION INITIATING ONLY              
SPRINKLES. HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THE CURRENT                
TRENDS. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP TODAY WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON                 
ACROSS THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE              
ALONG WITH AFFECTS OF MID-LEVEL FORCING BECOME MORE EVIDENT.                    
ISOLATED T-STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SW PARTS OF THE FA AS                    
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES TO ABOUT 300 J/KG...AND                    
MAINLY RESTRICTED TO SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. SKY CONDITIONS ALSO                 
UPDATED AS DEEPER DVV AIDING IN SUPPRESSING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL               
PART OF FORECAST AREA.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 734 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                                             
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS BAND OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY MOVING             
TO THE EAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN                  
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WELL DEFINE MID-LEVEL              
CYCLONE DROPPING SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH CENTER OVER NORTHEAST                     
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SLOW AS IT              
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS LOW WILL INCREASE LIGHT                       
PRECIPITATION OVER THE OVER THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE                
KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AND OVER KDAY AND KILN                    
TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED VICINITY KCMH AND KLUK                  
LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO                 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR KDAY AND KILN                  
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS                    
COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER KCVG AND KLUK FOR THE SAME TIME                         
PERIOD...NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST AT                 
THE CURRENT TIME. KCVG WINDS A LITTLE TRICKY THIS MORNING AS MOST               
GUIDANCE IS FOR A NORTHEAST WIND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SINCE                   
CURRENT WIND IS EAST TO SOUTHEAST FORECASTED WILL REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS      
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.         
SPEED SHOULD BE BETWEEN 7 AND 12 KNOTS.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM EDT WED APR 18 2007/                          
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
UPPER LOW IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY...ROTATING SOUTHWARD                   
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. AT THE                
SAME TIME...NUMEROUS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE                  
AREA IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS               
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THE LATTER SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND                
BECOME ABSORBED BY A DEEP LOW OVER THE ERN ATLANTIC...WITH ITS                  
MAIN IMPACT TO THE ILN CWA BEING A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS                 
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. GREAT LAKES LOW SLIGHTLY DEEPENS AS IT                 
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL                 
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS               
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN                   
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGEST PVA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE                 
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY STILL SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY THIS                        
AFTERNOON...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR               
SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO SHALLOW ELSEWHERE.                             
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS              
THE SOUTH AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ERN KY. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE               
NORTH AS I EXPECT NVA TO LIMIT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL UP THERE.                   
SHALLOW INSTABILITY RETURNS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY                     
THOUGH BEST LIFT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE BY                 
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A GRADUAL WARM UP AS               
STRONG H5 RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.                                  
TEMPERATURE WISE...FELT MET GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM TODAY WITH                    
THICKER CLOUDS COMING IN...WHILE MAV SEEMED BIASED ON THE COOL                  
SIDE WITH PRECIP-INDUCED COLD POOL OVER OHIO. WENT FOR A MAV/MET                
BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...TRENDING TOWARD THE WARMER MET LATER IN                 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
HAWBLITZEL                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2007/                          
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD AND MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH            
PROGRESSIVELY WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.                          
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE               
POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS DEVELOP AND MOVE            
ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM EDT WED APR 17 2007/                          
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE                   
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.              
LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH                    
CENTRAL KENTUCKY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. NEWEST NUMERICAL                    
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER WILL BE GEARED MORE TO                 
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH               
ANY FOCUS LIFTING. THUS VCSH HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE MORNING                 
SECTION OF THE TAFS. ALSO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RISK OF                  
THUNDER MAINLY IN THE KCVG AND KLUK TERMINALS BUT NOT CONFIDENT                 
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR                
THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR                  
LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> oh                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
130 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS HANGING BACK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL              
TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH LITTLE FORCING BEHIND IT. THE ASSOCIATED              
H5 S/W TROUGH/LOW IS OVER THE RED RIVER BETWEEN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS              
AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY WHILE H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ACROSS              
THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT COUPLE OF                    
DAYS...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST.                  
BY THURSDAY...CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A MODERATE                   
ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                     
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP            
SOUTH TEXAS LIES UNDER H5 RIDGING LATE THIS WEEK. AN H5 S/W TROUGH              
WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY...AND THIS                    
UPSTREAM INSTABILITY MAY SPARK A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTH                 
TEXAS AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE NOTHING DEFINITE FOR DEEP SOUTH                  
TEXAS. A FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE NORTH LATE IN              
THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PUSH MUCH CLOSER TO THE                
LOCAL AREA. SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND WEST ARE POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY              
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BREWS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH                     
INSTABILITY MOVING OVERHEAD. THE UPPER VALLEY HAS A SHOT AT SOME                
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THAT AREA FROM UPSTREAM LATE MONDAY. BY NEXT                
TUESDAY THE MID LEVEL FEATURE DRAWS MUCH CLOSER...NEW MEXICO...AND              
SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE UPSTREAM AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALOFT.             
A FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS                
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND H5 RIDGING AMPLIFIES                
UPSTREAM. THIS FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP SOME STRONGER                 
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BECAUSE IT MAY HAVE SOME               
MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT WILL OF COURSE HAVE THE EVER PRESENT GULF              
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 810 PM CDT TUE APR 17 2007...SURFACE               
OBS SHOW THE FRONT CURRENTLY WEST OF COT AND LRD. THIS PUTS THE                 
FRONT WEST OF ITS PREDICTED LOCATION BY THE 18Z NAM/GFS MODEL DATA.             
HAVE DONE SOME MINOR GRID EDITING TO REFLECT THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF             
THE FRONT USING 21Z RUC DATA...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE                   
CURRENT POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE               
LOWER VALLEY BY AROUND MID-MORNING AND WILL BE MARKED WITH DRIER AIR            
ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL             
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE                
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42019 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO              
NEAR 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6               
SECONDS AT 24 CDT/05 UTC. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR              
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE LOWER             
TEXAS COAST. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH             
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.             
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS               
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE               
OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN              
THIS MORNING AS CALM SURFACE WINDS AND WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 1000            
FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE PREVAIL. MODERATE SHIFTING WINDS AND CLEAR               
SKIES WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THE                
PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW            83 65 81 68 83 70 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
BROWNSVILLE        85 64 82 67 84 69 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
FALFURRIAS         91 62 86 67 85 67 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
HARLINGEN          89 64 87 66 86 68 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
HEBBRONVILLE       89 62 86 66 87 65 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
MCALLEN            92 66 89 68 87 70 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
PORT ISABEL        82 66 81 69 82 70 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
RIO GRANDE CITY    94 66 90 69 90 71 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 67 80 70 81 71 / 00 00 00 00 00 00                        
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
54/66                                                                           
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT:                              
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE                                              
</pre> tx                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
354 AM CDT THU APR 19 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY...WARMING TREND               
INTO WEEKEND AND THEN PCPN CHCS LATE IN WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.                    
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION CENTER ACRS SRN INDIANA.           
THIS PROGGD TO SHIFT SEWD FURTHER AWAY FROM CWA TODAY. MID LEVEL                
RDGING WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO US LATER TODAY. 11/3 ANIMATION SHOWS                
DECENT SLUG OF OF CLRG WORKING ACRS LAKE MI. EXPECT PC/PS SKIES TO              
EMERGE FOR ENTIRE CWA WITH WRN CWA LOOKING TO BE THE LAST TO GET                
IN ON THE SUN.                                                                  
THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG FOR TNGT...PSBLY FRI NGT                   
TOO. WINDS THROUGHOUT LOW 1000-850MB COLUMN STILL SHOWING SOME                  
DOUBLE DIGITS KNOTS INTO THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS...BUT BECOMING                 
LIGHTER TOWARDS MORNING. ALSO ALL MOS DATA SHOWING 4-7 DEGREE DEW               
POINT DEPRESSIONS AND LLVL RH PROGS UNIMPRESSIVE SO THIS LENDS TO               
CONFIDENCE IN HOLDING OFF OF MENTION FOR NOW.                                   
THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE BUILDING UPPER               
RIDGE AND A PRETTY GOOD WARMUP. H8 TEMPS RISE FROM 3C TODAY TO 5C               
FRIDAY AND THEN NEAR 12C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EACH DAY THROUGH                  
SUNDAY LOOKS TO SEE PROGRESSIVELY LESS INFLUENCE OF LAKE MI ON                  
TEMPS.                                                                          
CONSENSUS AND CONTINUTY OF MODELS SUPPORTS HIGHEST POPS FOR SUNDAY              
NIGHT SO WILL BUMP TO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THAT TIME FRAME. MODELS               
ARE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND OF A SLOWER ONSET OF PCPN SUNDAY SO               
PULLED BACK POPS FOR THE DAY PORTION. WILL ALSO LINGER SOME                     
SHOWERS INTO MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.                           
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND                  
SUCCUMB TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING TODAY.  LATEST 11-3.9              
MICRON IMAGERY SHOWING BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS                   
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...HOWEVER CLEARING WL BEGIN TO SLOW AS            
IT PUSHES CLOSER...AT LEAST FOR A TIME.  WILL IMPROVE IFR CONDITIONS            
AT BOTH KMSN AND KMKE TO VFR DURING THE MRNG WITH PERHAPS KMKE                  
LAGGING SLIGHTLY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WITH LACK            
OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING...LIKELY TO BE PATCHY FOG...                    
ESPECIALLY IN EAST. TO EARLY TO TELL HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE AT            
THIS POINT PENDING AMOUNT OF DRYING IN LOW LEVELS.                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
408 AM CDT WED APR 18 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHCS WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING                
SWD THRU WRN GRT LAKES TODAY/TNGT.                                              
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS UPPER LOW/28 UNIT VORT CENTER VCNTY CNTRL                 
LAKE MI. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGD TO PIVOT SWD INTO INDIANA                       
TODAY...WHICH STILL LEAVES CWA LOCKED IN AN UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW                 
REGIME. WHILE COLUMN INITIALLY DRY IN THE LOW LAYERS...BUFKIT                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTENING THIS AFTN INTO TNGT.                 
88D FROM GRB SHOWS SOME PCPN OVER LAKE MI AND NRN LWR MI SHIFTING               
SWWD WITH TIME. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND SPREADS               
SOME LIGHT QPF INTO THE CWA TODAY. EVEN THO BEST VORTICITY SLIDES               
SE OF THE AREA THIS MRNG...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS ON THE GFS                
OF A SECORNDARY WAVE COMING NE TO SW ARND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.               
THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF AN INVERTED TROF AXIS AT H8 ON BOTH THE               
GFS AND NAM.                                                                    
SFC THRU H8 FLOW TO BE BRISK FROM THE NE TODAY WHICH ALONG WITH                 
THE CLOUD COVER WILL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR RATHER COOL CONDITIONS.                 
LOWEST LEVELS PROGGD TO REMAIN MOIST TNGT WITH SOME WEAK LIFT...LOOKS           
LIKE A DRIZZLE SOUNDING OFF THE NAM BUFKIT...BUT WILL JUST GO                   
PATCHY FOR NOW.                                                                 
STILL LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST IN THE LOW LAYERS ON THU MRNG THEN DRYING              
NOTED ON THE SOUNDINGS AND ON LOW LEVEL RH PROGS. MOS HINTING AT                
SOME BREAKS DURG THE AFTN.                                                      
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE FRI. ON SATURDAY                
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE SFC AND H8 RDG                  
SLIP TO THE EAST. WARMER H8 TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA ON                  
INCREASING SRLY WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST DYNAMICS AND                       
SUBSEQUENT POPS ENCROACH FOR LATER SUN INTO SUN NGT.                            
&&                                                                              
10                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT SECONDARY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND             
AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW TO RETURN VFR CIGS TO MOST OF SRN WI LATER THIS            
MORNING.  INCRG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY MOIST               
LOW LEVEL FLOW UPSTREAM...WOULD EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO EVENTUALLY                  
DEVELOP AT KMKE THIS AFTN OR EVE AND PERSIST THROUGH TNGT.  LIGHT               
FOG AND RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS AT KMKE.                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> wi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
455 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING            
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FOR THE WEEKEND...CONCERNS ARE HOW FAST            
THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  BEYOND THE            
WEEKEND HAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING SEVERAL LOBES OF               
UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND COMING INTO THE WEST                    
COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLIDING SLOWLY             
SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE PATTERN HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS               
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA                
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN A                 
CHANNEL OF 50 DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID 50             
DEWPOINTS ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  SURFACE                
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  IN THE CORE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND WITH THE AID OF THE TAIL END OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND WARM                      
ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST              
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THURSDAY EVENING...MOVING TO THE                
NORTHEAST.  ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL CLOUD              
BAND LINGERS.  THE EVENING RUC MODEL SHOWED SOME QPF POTENTIAL OVER             
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE 00Z NAM HAD                
SOME SPOTTY QPF AS WELL...AND WITH THE MID CLOUDS AROUND...LEFT SOME            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHCENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY AND PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  WITH THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE               
WAY OF CAP AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HAVE LEFT              
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS A COUNTY OR SO              
FURTHER EAST.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH WINDS AND                    
INCREASING CLOUDS HELPING KEEP READINGS MILD.                                   
MODELS STILL SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW FOR THE            
WEEKEND WEATHER.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING IT WINDY WHILE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH AND             
WESTWARD.  UPPER DYNAMICS AND FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE             
FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY                
MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.  NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN PUSHING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST AND FOR NOW FAVORING THE BIT MORE                    
PROGRESSIVE GFS AS SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACTS AS             
KICKER WHEN IT DIVES SOUTH.  INCREASED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA              
INTO THE "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY NIGHT....THEN SPREAD            
THAT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE             
WESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS                      
SATURDAY.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS...LOWS                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN MILD...IN THE MIDDLE 50S.                                  
ON SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ON THE GFS...THE               
NAM A BIT SLOWER.  AGAIN GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SOME                 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SATURDAY NIGHT                
CONVECTION. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE            
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  HAVE COMPROMISED ON GFS/NAM MOVEMENT THUS LEFT            
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY EVENING...THE GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIP             
EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z MON.                                                    
ONLY SOME MINOR BLENDING CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY                
NIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.  NEXT WAVE                  
ENTERS THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOMES A SLOW MOVER IN THE SOUTHERN                 
STREAM GIVING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY               
INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE             
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY...LOWS MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PF                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                   
POTENTIAL TODAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS AN OUTBREAK IS                       
POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL                 
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                        
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)                                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE                  
BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT                  
HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES                
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY                 
SHOULD BE NEAR SW ARIZONA. STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE A PROBLEM THROUGH              
LATE MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS                
WILL INITIALLY DAMPEN THE STANDARD DIURNAL CURVE BUT SHOULDNT                   
EFFECT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 70S.                 
STILL LOOKS LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WARRANTED                  
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG A               
SURFACE TROUGH. EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH VARIES BETWEEN THE                 
NAM/GFS/RUC13 SO SOMEWHAT BROADBRUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR               
NOW. SOME STRATUS RETURNS TO THE AREA AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY               
LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. RUC AND NAM SUGGEST THAT ANY ACTIVITY                 
THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE OR                  
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET                 
DEVELOPS. AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ANY PRECIP THAT                      
DEVELOPS SHOULD HAVE QUICKLY MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.                       
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THOSE               
COUNTIES EITHER SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
AS UPPER LOW REACHES CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE                
GFS AT THIS POINT FOR PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST POPS AS USED HPC QPF.                
WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE WORDING AS WELL. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ALL               
MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT BRINGING THE UPPER                 
LOW ATOP THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER.               
WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS AND KEEP HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY EAST OF              
THE CO/KS BORDER. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING REMAIN A THREAT AS                    
STORMS REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY 70-75.                 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...WRAPAROUND SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND                
OUT OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW. WILL                 
NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY                   
WINDS DEVELOP AND GROUND SATURATED FROM THE EXPECTED RECENT RAINS.              
OTHER FEATURES OF INTEREST WILL BE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER                  
WHICH BY 12Z MONDAY SHOULD BE NEAR SOUTHWEST UTAH...DIVING                      
SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF THE               
PRECIP MOVES OUT FASTER THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER                 
THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF ITS SLOWER THEN WILL NEED TO TREND                  
DOWNWARD.                                                                       
.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE                  
HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG SANDWICHED BTWN RDG OFF THE E COAST AND                  
ANOTHER OVER THE PAC NW. QUIET NITE OVER THE FA WITH HI PRES RDG                
AXIS AND DRY STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z GRB RAOB/01Z TAMDAR             
SDNG FM SAW DOMINATING. SHRTWV OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS ROTATING                  
ALMOST DUE N ON THE ERN FLANK OF NW TROF...SO ASSOCIATED MID/HI CLD             
MAKING ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EWD THRU MN E TOWARD THE UPR LKS WITH SE              
TRAJECTORIES MAINTAINING DRY AIRMASS AT INL AS WELL. JUST A BIT HIER            
RH NOTED ON THE 00Z INL SDNG AT THE TOP OF THE PBL...BUT ASSOCIATED             
DIURNAL CU DSPTD SOON AFT SUNSET. ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHRTWV                    
DROPPING THRU WRN TROF TOWARD THE SW CONUS.                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INTO SAT ARE TEMPS/FIRE WX ISSUES WITH DRY RDG               
PROGGED TO REMAIN DOMINANT. AS RDG BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND             
SHRTWV NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SW CONUS LIFTS TO THE NE...FOCUS WL                
SHIFT TOWARD TIMING ARRIVAL OF ANY ASSOCIATED PCPN.                             
EXPECT ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVER THE FA TDAY UNDER SFC RDG. CENTER OF              
SFC HI PRES PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER THE CNTRL GRT LKS UNDER RISING UPR            
HGTS...SO LLVL FLOW WL SHIFT TO MORE SLY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN              
ZNS. WITH REDUCED LK MODERATION AND H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE TO 6C             
OVER THE W BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT HI TEMPS OVER THE WCNTRL INTERIOR TO             
REACH APRCH 70 PER MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS. OTHER THAN               
SOME DIURNAL CU AND SOME HI CLD OVER THE W ASSOCIATED WITH NRN                  
PLAINS TROF LIFTING N INTO CAN...SKIES WL BE SUNNY. MIXING TO H8 WL             
ALLOW SFC DWPTS TO FALL TOWARD 32 IN THE AFTN...WITH MIN RH FALLING             
TOWARD 25 PCT. RELATIVELY LGT WINDS WL KEEP OVERALL FIRE WX                     
SITUATION FM BECMG TOO CRITICAL.                                                
UPR RDG FCST TO DOMINATE AGAIN TNGT...SO EXPECT A QUIET PD WITH                 
MOCLR SKIES AGAIN. HI PRES CENTER FCST TO MOVE TO NEAR DTX BY 12Z               
SAT...SO RETURN SW FLOW WL HOLD MIN TEMPS HIER THAN THIS MRNG WITH              
H925 WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. EXPECT THE LOWEST READINGS OVER THE INTERIOR            
SCNTRL AND E.                                                                   
SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE SW CONUS FCST TO BEGIN TO ROUND THE BASE             
OF WRN TROF AND LIFT INTO THE PLAINS ON SAT. WITH FALLING PRES IN               
THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYS AND SFC HI PRES RDG MOVING SLOWLY TO               
THE E...PRES GRADIENT/SSW FLOW FCST TO INCRS OVER THE UPR LKS DURING            
THE DAY. OPTED TO REMOVE PCPN OVER THE LAND FA ON SAT GIVEN STRENGTH            
OF RDG/ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS...BUT TENDED TO KEEP LO CHC POPS OVER             
WRN LK SUP AS GFS/UKMET/ECMWF HINT AT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING            
OVER THE TOP OF THE RDG TO THE NW AND INTERACTING WITH LLVL MSTR                
RETURN. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE            
INTO THE LO 70S AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI. THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY            
THE GFS SHOW QUITE A BIT MORE LLVL MSTR RETURNING OVER THE W...WITH             
MIXING TO H8 INDICATING DWPTS WOULD FALL OFF TO ONLY 40 TO 45. THE              
NAM IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH LLVL MSTR RETURN...AND MIXING TO H8               
WOULD ALLOW THE DWPT TO FALL TO ONLY ABOUT 37 (RH CLOSE TO 25                   
PERCENT). TEND TO PREFER THE DRIER NAM IDEA AT THIS POINT                       
CONSIDERING THE SLOWER EXPECTED BREAKDOWN OF THE RDG IN PRESENT HI              
AMPLITUDE PATTERN. COMBINATION OF INCRSG WINDS...MIXING OF FAIRLY               
DRY AIR...AND TEMPS REACHING AOA 70 AT A FEW PLACES WL PUSH OVERALL             
FIRE WX PARAMETERS TO NEAR CRITICAL LVLS.                                       
GFS/NAM SHOW H925 SW WINDS REACHING 35 TO 40 KTS SAT NGT IN A CAPPED            
WARM SECTOR...SO EXPECT A RELATIVELY NEGLIGIBLE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.              
READINGS IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM P53-MQT-P59-IWD MAY NOT DROP BLO             
50. RESTRICTED POPS ON SAT TO OVER LK SUP CONSIDERING CAPPED FCST               
SDNGS IN WARM SECTOR. SUN WL BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH STRONG SW FLOW             
CONTINUING AHEAD OF SHRTWV SLOWLY LIFTING NE. CONSIDERING EXPECTED              
SLOWER APRCH OF SHRTWV AND MORE SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH H85 TEMPS                 
APRCHG 15C...GOING FCST HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S AWAY FM LK MI            
MODERATION LOOK ON TRACK. PER NCEP GUIDANCE...FOLLOWED THE UKMET/NAM            
SOLNS MORE THAN THE GFS. THESE MODELS HINT AT MORE LLVL MSTR AND SFC            
DWPTS IN THE 40 TO 45 RANGE...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RH IN THE 25 TO              
30 PCT RANGE. TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER NAM/UKMET/CNDN MODELS ON                
FCST PROGRESSION OF SYS LIFTING OUT OF THE SW...SO CUT POPS SUN NGT.            
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</pre> mi                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
314 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HOW FAST                
UPPER LOW STILL DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WRN CA COAST EJECTS                     
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN TIMING AND POSSIBLE                 
STORM STRUCTURE. OPERATIONAL MODEL SELECTION SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE              
AS 00Z NAM LACKED CANADIAN UA DATA...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS                   
CRITICAL WITH PACIFIC SYSTEM...AND GFS WAS FASTER THAN OTHER                    
OPERATIONAL MODELS PLUS ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT. STLT SHOWED LEAD UPPER LOW LIFTING              
INTO NERN MT/NWRN ND VCNTY WITH A SHEARED VORT LOBE EXTDG INTO                  
NERN NEBR. POSSIBLY ASSOCD WITH LOBE...ISOLD CONVECTION HAS                     
DEVELOPED IN CLOUD FIELD NW OF LNK/OMA SINCE 0630Z AIDED BY 850                 
MB THETA E ADVCTN. LATEST RUC SHIFTS THIS ADVCTN NWRD THRU 18Z AS               
850 MB WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. OTHER CLOUD ELEMENTS                 
APPEARED CELLULAR IN NATURE VIA STLT OVR WRN IA AND WSW OF LNK.                 
THUS WILL CARRY SMALL POPS MOST ZONES THIS MORNING. APPEARS CLOUDS              
SHOULD DISPT ENOUGH THIS AFTN TO ALLOW MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB AND                
GUIDANCE/PREV FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. LEFT IN SMALL AFTN POPS FAR                 
SW. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WL BE              
ON ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS AS MOISTURE BEGINS RETURNING NWRD               
TWD SOME SORT OF BOUNDARY/DRYLINE THAT WL BE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT                 
NWD ACRS WRN NEBRASKA. FOR TNGT...AS LOW LVL JET STRENGTHENS AND                
VEERS A BIT OVERNIGHT...850 MB THETA E ADVCTN DVLPS OVR FCST AREA.              
THUS LEFT IN SMALL POPS ALL BUT FAR SERN ZONES EVEN THOUGH NO                   
OTHER APPARENT FOCUS.                                                           
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW                  
APPROACHES. NO BIG CHANGES TO TEMPS/WINDS. FOR SAT NGT/SUNDAY KEPT              
FORECAST BASED ON A SLOWER EJECTION OF TROUGH/LOW SINCE IT WAS                  
BACKED BY 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF/NAM AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THUS                    
DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY SAT NGT ERN ZONES AS SAT AFTN/EVENING                   
CONVECTION THAT DVLPS SHOULD TEND TO MOVE MORE N THAN E.                        
HOWEVER...PCPN CHCS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW OR                   
OPENING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA. ATTM APPEARS SYSTEM                  
WILL BE COMING ACROSS JUST SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW DECENT HEATING                
ERN ZONES ENHANCING SEVERE THREAT BOTH NEAR TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM               
AND ALONG TRAILING CDFNT.                                                       
MADE LTL CHANGES TO REST OF FORECAST. MONDAY APPEARS DRY IN                     
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY LIFT A WARM FRONT                 
INTO SRN ZONES IF LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE RIGHT. THUS IF THAT TREND                
CONTINUES ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED SOME AREAS         
ON TUESDAY. WED/THU ARE DEPENDANT ON WHETHER UPPER LOW CUTS OFF                 
TO OUR S OR LIFTS AND STALLS OVER US. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES TO                 
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHERMOK                                                                         
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
120 AM EDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.AVIATION /200600Z-210600Z/...                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR OR                
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AT ALL SITES. FOG NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT AS                    
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL PRETTY HEALTHY AND DEWPOINTS HAVE                
TRENDED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. LGT/VAR WINDS                    
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING                  
AROUND 10KTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET...WHEN THEY WILL DIMINISH              
TO 5KTS OR LESS ONCE AGAIN. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY GOOD FLYING              
WEATHER IS IN STORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 209 PM EDT THU APR 19 2007/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY                   
TAKING THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT IS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NORTH            
AMERICAN CONTINENT AND PUSHING IT EASTWARD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE              
RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLOCK WILL FLATTEN. WE WILL REMAIN EAST              
OF THE MID LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH               
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. MINOR AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GOVERNED BY SOME WEAK MID LEVEL                      
IMPULSES THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SFC RIDGE                  
NEARING THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE               
WELL /10F/ ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.               
THIS EVENING...THE RUC AND NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF                  
ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM THE EAST AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z                  
TONIGHT. NAM/RUC RH PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF MID                   
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...MOSTLY IMPACTING OUR                 
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH 500 HEIGHTS BUILDING THROUGH THE                       
EVENING...CAN`T SEE THIS WAVE DOING ANYTHING MORE THAN DELAYING                 
THE TRANSITION FROM PCLOUDY TO MCLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER THIS WAVE DEPARTS...EXPECT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY                      
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB. MODELS BRING A                   
PRETTY STRONG SHORT WAVE RIDGE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING            
FOR A WONDERFUL DAY. BUFKIT PROFILES ARE QUITE DRY WITH A STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. GOOD MIXING TO 850 WILL TAP ANY WINDS IN THE              
LOWER LEVELS AND BRING THEM TO THE SURFACE...BUT THE GRADIENT                   
WON`T BE PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...SO NOTHING MORE THAN 20-25MPH                
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. T850 RANGES FROM +4-6C IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH              
WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE L/MID 60S...AND WE`LL LEAN TOWARDS THE                  
WARMER END BASED ON HOW THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PLAYING CATCH UP WITH              
THE TEMPS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT APPEARS WE WILL FINALLY GET A              
CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE U20S/L30S               
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                                                             
TONIGHT...MODELS DROP THE DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY WITH OVER-LAND                      
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. UPSTREAM OBS FROM OUR CANADIAN NEIGHBORS AND                
EVEN THOSE OVER NEW ENGLAND INDICATE DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE                
TEENS. THINK THIS STRONG LLEVEL DRYING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                      
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NICELY                       
TONIGHT...PROBABLY COOLER THAN OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL                   
GENERALLY FOLLOW MET GUIDANCE. THESE DRY READINGS...ALONG WITH A                
LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BEING A PROBLEM.                        
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE. RH                  
PROGS SHOW A LITTLE BIT IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING IN                 
THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE              
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE DAY SHOULD BE SUNNY/MSUNNY AND              
WITH T850 BETWEEN 5-6C HIGHS AROUND U60S TO AROUND 70 LOOK GOOD.                
ALTHOUGH DEEP MIXING IS AGAIN EXPECTED...WEAKER GRADIENTS WILL                  
LESSEN THE WINDS EVEN MORE...15MPH OR LESS EVEN IN GUSTS. LLEVEL                
RHS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY                   
LAYER WIND TRAJECTORIES TAKE MORE OF A TRACK OVER THE LAKES.                    
THIS INCREASED LLEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS SATURDAY                   
NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING RATHER THAN AT/JUST BELOW.                                             
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY ON                     
SUNDAY AS THE EAST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. ALTHOUGH WELL                 
NORTH OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY FILTER IN FROM               
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE DAY WILL STILL TURN OUT MSUNNY. WITH T850              
REACHING 6-7C...U60S/L70S ARE LIKELY FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA.                  
WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT AS THE CREST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE                 
MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NEXT WEEK WILL START OFF WITH A CONTINUATION OF DRY MILD WEATHER.               
BY TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWERS.                                        
AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE                
ENOUGH...SO THAT DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN                
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                                     
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
BAINBRIDGE AND CONKLIN STILL THE PRIMARY SITES OF CONCERN WITH                  
CONKLIN JUST ABOVE FS AND BAINBRIDGE VERY NEAR IT. RIVERS CONTINUE              
TO BE FED BY SNOWMELT...BUT THIS WILL COME TO AN END SOON. WAVERLY              
ALSO FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO FS TOMORROW. HAVE KEPT WARNINGS AS               
THE ARE ATTM...BUT EXPECT RIVERS TO BEGIN TO FALL ESPECIALLY AS WE              
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AS THE REMAINING SNOWPACK IS LOST AND WE SEE AN              
EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. AGAIN...ONLY VERY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JMA                                                                  
</pre> ny                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
556 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH MID CLOUDS THINNING AND RADAR SHOWING ACTIVITY OFF TO THE FAR              
NORTH...WILL BE DOING A FORECAST UPDATE TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF                  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES THIS                
MORNING.  LATEST RUC STILL SHOWING SOME QPF POTENTIAL BUT IT WOULD              
HAVE HAD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH            
THE NIGHT.  06Z NAM HAD SOME SPOTTY QPF FOR THE AM BUT FURTHER WEST             
OF CWA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR NOT GIVING ANY SIGNS FOR UPPER SUPPORT              
OVER CWA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
PF                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
455 AM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING            
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE AGAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCES             
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FOR THE WEEKEND...CONCERNS ARE HOW FAST            
THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.  BEYOND THE            
WEEKEND HAVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS SHOWING SEVERAL LOBES OF               
UPPER ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND COMING INTO THE WEST                    
COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLIDING SLOWLY             
SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE PATTERN HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS               
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA                
INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DRAWN A                 
CHANNEL OF 50 DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID 50             
DEWPOINTS ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE.  SURFACE                
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.  IN THE CORE OF DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND WITH THE AID OF THE TAIL END OF SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
ROTATING AROUND NORTHERN UPPER LOW OVER MONTANA...AND WARM                      
ADVECTION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST              
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THURSDAY EVENING...MOVING TO THE                
NORTHEAST.  ACTIVITY DIMINISHED AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL CLOUD              
BAND LINGERS.  THE EVENING RUC MODEL SHOWED SOME QPF POTENTIAL OVER             
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS AND THE 00Z NAM HAD                
SOME SPOTTY QPF AS WELL...AND WITH THE MID CLOUDS AROUND...LEFT SOME            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTHCENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS                  
MORNING.  OTHERWISE...EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS                    
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S MOST AREAS TODAY AND PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  WITH THE NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE               
WAY OF CAP AND IN THE VICINITY OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...HAVE LEFT              
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS A COUNTY OR SO              
FURTHER EAST.  LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 50S WITH WINDS AND                    
INCREASING CLOUDS HELPING KEEP READINGS MILD.                                   
MODELS STILL SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW FOR THE            
WEEKEND WEATHER.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER              
THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING IT WINDY WHILE DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH AND             
WESTWARD.  UPPER DYNAMICS AND FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE             
FAVOR THE HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY                
MOVING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT.  NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN PUSHING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EAST AND FOR NOW FAVORING THE BIT MORE                    
PROGRESSIVE GFS AS SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACTS AS             
KICKER WHEN IT DIVES SOUTH.  INCREASED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA              
INTO THE "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCE CATEGORY SATURDAY NIGHT....THEN SPREAD            
THAT TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE OVER THE             
WESTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS                      
SATURDAY.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S MOST AREAS...LOWS                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AGAIN MILD...IN THE MIDDLE 50S.                                  
ON SUNDAY...UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA WITH BEST                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON ON THE GFS...THE               
NAM A BIT SLOWER.  AGAIN GIVEN THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...SOME                 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXTENT OF SATURDAY NIGHT                
CONVECTION. WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE            
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  HAVE COMPROMISED ON GFS/NAM MOVEMENT THUS LEFT            
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY EVENING...THE GFS WOULD HAVE PRECIP             
EXITING THE AREA BY 00Z MON.                                                    
ONLY SOME MINOR BLENDING CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY                
NIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR                  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.  NEXT WAVE                  
ENTERS THE AREA MONDAY AND BECOMES A SLOW MOVER IN THE SOUTHERN                 
STREAM GIVING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY               
INTO WEDNESDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE             
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY              
AND THURSDAY...LOWS MAINLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PF                                                                              
</pre> ks                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
248 PM MDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
CURRENTLY...DRY LINE HAS MIXED EASTWARD TO THE KANSAS BORDER...WITH             
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MOST AREAS EAST OF THE                 
MOUNTAINS. DEEP MIXING BEGINNING TO CRANK UP WIND SPEEDS MANY                   
AREAS...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AT 20Z.                                        
TONIGHT...LATEST 18Z NAM AND RUC BOTH KEEP THE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY                 
STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD PUSH THIS                    
EVENING. NEITHER NAM OR GFS BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP THIS EVENING OVER              
THE PLAINS...BUT LATEST RUC SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY BREAK OUT OVER              
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH              
SUBTLE DRY LINE BULGE AND LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. COUPLE                  
MESONET OBS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN WESTERN KS HINT AT THIS AS                   
WELL...WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS              
IN PLACE ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE                      
POTENTIAL...THOUGH IN THE END WONDER IF ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN AS                 
UPPER LOW MAY BE TOO FAR WEST AND CONVERGENCE TOO WEAK TO OVERCOME              
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION. FARTHER WEST...COULD SEE A FEW -SHSN             
BREAK OUT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INITIAL                
SURGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST. DOUBT WE`LL SEE                
MUCH PRECIP INITIALLY AS VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE TIME TO                  
MOISTEN.                                                                        
SATURDAY...UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH BROAD AREA OF               
UPWARD MOTION MOVING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. DRYLINE NEVER APPEARS              
TO MAKE MUCH OF PUSH WESTWARD IN THE MORNING...AND BY AFTERNOON AXIS            
OF DEEP INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE KS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. KEPT THE                 
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVER THE FAR EAST...ALONG WITH A MENTION OF                
SEVERE AS 0-6KM SHEAR IS 50 PLUS KNOTS AND CAPES WELL OVER 1000                 
J/KG. ELSEWHERE...SUSPECT MODELS ARE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP...AS LOW              
LEVEL AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND STRONG S-SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS            
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TRIMMED BACK POPS OVER THE EASTERN                  
MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR TO LOW CHANCES...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED              
IF MANY AREAS ALONG I-25 STAYED DRY. ANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FIRE             
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STRONG                
WINDS ALOFT...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS LACK THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V             
PROFILE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS MID LEVEL MOIST LAYERS.                  
OVERALL...FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NEEDED ONLY MINOR                      
ADJUSTMENTS.  --PETERSEN                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SAT NITE THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                     
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT EVENING AND ESPECIALLY               
   MONDAY...                                                                    
...A WET MONDAY NITE AND TUESDAY...(HEAVY WET SNOW FOR N EL PASO                
   COUNTY?)...                                                                  
CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD. STRONG SHORT WAVE              
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE S CALIF AS I WRITE WILL BE THE WEATHER                 
MAKER EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THIS WILL FORCE A BROKEN LINE OF                  
ROTATING CONVECTION TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CO/KS BORDER BY                
OOZ SUNDAY. THE QUESTION IS NOT WILL CONVECTION FORM...BUT WHERE                
AND HOW FAST WILL IT MOVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION                   
MAY BE OUT OF CO BY 00Z SUNDAY...BUT ITS BEST TO KEEP THE MENTION               
OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST...AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING.                 
ALL PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW...INCLUDIGN SUFFICIENT                 
SHEAR AND CAPE...SO WHEN STORMS GO UP...THEY WILL ROTATE. SPC                   
ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE FAR E PLAINS WITH A STRONGLY               
WORDED MOD RISK (AND ASSOCIATED DAY 2 HIGH PROBABILITIES) JUST EAST             
OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                     
AFTER THIS SYSTEM GOES BY...A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOMS FOR MONDAY. AT              
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ALL OF THE E CO PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE                 
GUN AS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD              
STRENGTHING SE FLOW AT THE SFC. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER                 
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SIMULATIONS                 
SHOW THAT SUFFICIENT CAPE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH INCREASING              
FORCING...SO I ANTICIPATE QUITE A FEW SUPERCELLS...SOME                         
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC...WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO GET WOUND UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT              
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS SE CO INTO NW KS. WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL DEVELOP            
BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AND IT WILL GET WET ACROSS THE E                   
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DVD. WE MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH A               
SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE E FACING SLOPES OF THE S MTNS. HEAVY WET SNOW              
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY. ITS STILL TOO EARLY              
TO KNOW IF THIS WILL HAPPEN...BUT PATTERN RECOGNITION INDICATES IT              
IS A POSSIBILITY.                                                               
FOR THE MTNS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF                
OPPURTUNITY FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW                 
MTNS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODERATE SW FLOW ALONG WITH               
FAVORABEL LAPSE RATES MOVE OVER THIS REGION.                                    
BY LATE TUE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION. NEXT WX              
SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING IN               
COOLER AIR AND JUST A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHTER PRECIP. /HODANISH                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/34                                                                           
</pre> co                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
258 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...PAST MORNING UPPER AIR DATA IN COMBINATION WITH LATEST            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STRONG WAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST            
CONUS WHILE A RIDGE IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE            
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER AN              
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE                
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE AREA.  CURRENT OBJECTIVE SURFACE            
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE REGION              
OF COLORADO WHILE A WEAK WARM FRONT IS SHOWN LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH               
INTO THE DAKOTAS WHICH HAS TRIGGERED SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER              
THAT AREA.  MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE ACROSS THE AREA IS A LARGE DECK OF             
STRATUS STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN OK ACROSS CENTRAL SECTION OF KANSAS            
AND NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS STRATUS HAS CREATED A DECENT              
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
MAIN QUESTION AS THE AREA HEADS INTO TONIGHT IS IF ANY CONVECTION               
COULD POTENTIAL FIRE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING              
BOUNDARY.  QUICK EXAMINATION OF VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE            
SIGN OF DEEPER CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP WITH RUC LOW LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND CIN VALUES STILL INDICATING A STRONG CAP.  AN                   
ISOLATED CHANCE MAY STILL EXIST NORTH OF A BEAVER CITY TO GREELEY               
LINE...BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER REMAINING             
AREA.                                                                           
LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO LOOK ACTIVE ACROSS THE            
PLAINS AS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE              
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A DRYLINE EAST INTO THE HIGH               
PLAINS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW WITH STRONG TO SEVERE                  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS              
WILL LEAVE MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA FAR               
ENOUGH EAST ON SATURDAY THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL                
SATURDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY DISCRETE                  
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY                   
EVENING WILL CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN               
EXCESS OF 45 KTS AND LINE SEGMENT MOTION POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS 40               
KTS...CONCERNED WESTERN HALF OF CWA MIGHT SEE NASTY BOWING SEGMENTS             
WITH STRONG DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE EVENING.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD            
START TO FADE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM               
AND ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE SLIDE INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS MAY SET            
THE STAGE FOR SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.  NOT                  
CONCERNED WITH FLOODING AT THIS POINT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME                
NUISANCE ISSUES.                                                                
.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL             
BE WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL END ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED               
WITH ANOTHER WAVE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES                
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING            
OUT OF THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END SOMETIME ON                 
SUNDAY. EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHWEST COULD SEE AN END TO THE                       
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT THAT THE PRECIPITATION              
WILL END FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EVENING. ONCE THE            
LOW MOVES OUT THE MOISTURE DECREASES. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TO THE REGION. DO NOT EXPECT THAT IT              
WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY.               
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY. AS             
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THE SOUTH WINDS              
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THEN AS THE FIRST WAVES            
START TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS             
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA                 
MONDAY EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE                  
SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA.             
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY                
DIMINISH...BUT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL THE LOW MOVES FAR               
ENOUGH EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH               
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AROUND EXPECT IT TO BE A BIT HARDER TO             
WARM AS MUCH SO HAVE COOLER TEMPERATURES. BUT BY FRIDAY WITH                    
PRECIPITATION GONE AND SOME SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM             
UP AGAIN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</pre> ne                                                                       

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
350 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2007                                                      
.SHORT TERM...INITIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST SD                    
HAS SLACKENED A BIT BUT ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST                  
ND. THEY ARE MOVING NORTH ON THE NOSE OF 850 MB JET AND BRINGING                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH IT AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.             
HOWEVER THE JET CORE IS ONLY 35-40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO RUC AND AREA              
PROFILERS AND WILL LIKELY NOT SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MUCH                 
EARLY THIS EVENING. RUC SHOWS THE JET STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS BY              
06Z SOUTH OF WAHPETON BUT 850 MB CAPE IS NORTH OF GFK BY THEN.                  
STILL...THIS ABR REPORTED ALMOST A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR                
TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THIS WEEKEND.                
SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SAT REMAINS THOUGH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE                
MID/UPPER 50S ON SAT AND THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MAY LIMIT               
SURFACE BASED STORMS A BIT. THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LOCALIZED              
WITH 1.25 INCH OR SO OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BUT A TRAINING LINE OF               
STORMS MAY PRODUCE MORE. LEANED ON HPC AND NAM QPF MOST BUT 3 DAY               
QPF ENDED UP BEING SIMILAR TO HPC. NAM PICKED UP ITS PROGRESSION                
TO MATCH GFS WHILE BACKING OFF A BIT ON QPF AMOUNTS...SO FAVORED                
NAM OVERALL.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...(TUE-FRI)                                                          
A SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN PAC OCEAN...AROUND 48N 148W...                  
IS PROGGED TO GENERATE A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL HIT SHORE AROUND                  
SUNDAY IN NRN CA. THIS SYSTEM PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL ROCKIES             
AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS MID NEXT WEEK.                                  
CURRENT PROGS SHOW MAIN ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF CWA. WHEREAS PREVIOUS              
RUNS SHOWED A BAND OF H700 FRONTOGENESIS FORCING JUST SOUTH                     
OF THE CWA...THREAT OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. THUS               
I REMOVED RAIN SHOWERS FROM SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES FOR LATE MON                 
NIGHT/EARLY TUE.                                                                
NEXT EVENT OF INTEREST IS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHERE                
12Z GFS IS BRINGING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS EXTREME SRN CANADA AND MT/ND.           
LATEST GFS RUN FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A SFC RIDGE OVR              
ERN MN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT...THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVE SHOWS            
UP BEST ON ECMWF H700-H850 RH PROG. ECMWF MOVES WAVE INTO CWA FRIDAY            
MORNING. HPC BLEND SHOWING 70 PERCENT ECMWF SOLUTION...THUS BRING               
PRECIP INTO CWA ON FRI MORNING.                                                 
.AVIATION                                                                       
VFR CONDS EARLY IN TAF AND TWEB PERIODS. HOWEVER...AS MOIST AIR                 
CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH...THREAT OF CONVECTION                
INCREASES. WORST THREAT WILL BE SOUTH OF KFAR WHERE SPC HAS ISSUED              
A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH. EXPECT CIGS TO GENERALLY BE VFR OUTSIDE                 
OF TSTMS...AND LOWERING TO 2000 TO 3000 FEET BY MIDNIGHT.                       
NAM12 SHOWING A TIGHT DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM             
SW OF KBIS TO NE OF KDVL...WITH SFC TROF JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS               
BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY...TWEB ROUTE FROM KBIS TO KFAR SHOULD SEE                
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</pre> nd