AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
935 PM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO ENVELOP THE CWA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.            
TEMPS JUMP WELL INTO THE TEENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS.                  
ALSO SOME FLURRIES BEING REPORTED. WILL SEND ANOTHER ZONE UPDATE                
MAINLY TO FRESHEN WORDING. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS LIFTING                         
NORTH THROUGH MISSOURI BUT AWIPS DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL KEEPS THIS                 
JUST SOUTH OF CWA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...OVERNIGHT EXPECT                       
CLOUDY/MOCLDY SKIES WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE TEENS. ..05..                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DICSUSSION...                                                         
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DEPARTING WINTER STORM WELL OUT OF AREA OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS POKING              
NORTH INTO CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF UPPER COMA             
CLOUDS AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAVE KEPT            
FLURRIES GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NW IL. UPSTREAM...AN UPPER             
LEVEL POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FRESH            
SNOW COVER LIMITING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER                 
CWA...WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGITS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND NW IA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CHALLENGE IS                
TEMPERATURES. RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER CWA THIS EVENING            
WITH STAGE SET FOR EARLY TEMPERATURE PLUNG BEFORE WEAK LOW LEVEL                
WARM AIR ADVECTION ENDS THE FALL OR ALLOWS SLIGHT RISE TOWARD                   
MORNING. SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUD FIELD THAT DEVELOPED UNDER                 
RIDGE IN PARTIAL SNOW OR ICE COVERED AREAS OF KS AND MO MAY CONTINUE            
TO INCH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS FORMED IN AN AREA WITH                
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK ISENTROPIC IN RETURN               
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH. WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THESE                 
CLOUDS TO BE RATHER THIN...WILL DISCOUNT THEM FOR FIRST HALF OF                 
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTH. MOS GUIDANCE MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE                
CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS OVER MUCH OF CWA AND THUS DISCOUNTED. WENT                 
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF META AND RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH RAPID               
PLUNGE AFTER SUNSET TO SUB ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW COVERED                
EAST CENTRAL IA...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 12 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW...WILL THEN              
KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR POSSIBLY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES BY MORNING.                 
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH BY EVENING WITH MAIN                
VORT CENTER PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL. WARM ADVECTION            
AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH DAY            
AND SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SE CWA AND THUS PRODUCES QPF BY EVENING WHILE                
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS IN SE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH                   
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TOO WARM FRIDAY AND             
UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW                   
COLDEST MAV IN SOUTH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO                 
LOWER 30S SOUTH WHERE ICE AND SNOW COVER THINNEST. EXPECT CLEARING              
TREND AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS PLUNGING               
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WELL BELOW COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE.                 
..SHEETS..                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPS WITH FLAT WSW UPPER              
FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTING REGION SATURDAY...SETTING UP WEAK              
RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MODELS DROP ANOTHER WEAK                
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.  OF COURSE WITH SNOW COVER OVER                
MOST OF CWA WILL BE GOING NEAR OR UNDER COOLER MET NUMBERS                      
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.  LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT WINDS            
NEAR THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY...IN                    
ADDITION TO THE SNOW COVER.   WEAK SLY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF             
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. THE LOW DRAGS A WEAK COLD             
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CWA EARLY MONDAY.  THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME                  
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND S/W ENERGY MOVING ALONG               
THE BOUNDARY. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY BE THE BIG ISSUE WITH ANY PCPN             
DEVELOPMENT.  12Z GFS RUN WAS SHOWING A NARROW SWATH OF 90 PCT H8 RH            
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY BY 18Z...SO INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THE                  
ENTIRE AREA.  TEMP PROFILES 18Z MONDAY FAVOR RA IN THE SOUTH WHILE              
COLDER H8 TEMPS N SUGGEST A MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                    
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                                   
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                    
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING SW FLOW OVER REGION             
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA HOLDING COLDER AIRMASS WELL TO THE              
NORTH.  THE 06/00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO PHASE THE TWO                 
STREAMS WEDNESDAY BRINING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ERN             
PAC RIDGE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH KEEP THE SPLIT FLOW INTACT             
THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE 06/12Z GFS AT 108HR IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH              
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SUPPORTING THE EUROPEAN MODELS SOLUTION. WILL            
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC                          
ZONE...ENHANCED BY SNOWFIELD...SETTING UP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE AND STRONG BAROCLINIC               
ZONE OVER CWA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN FCST FOR TUESDAY             
THROUGH THURSDAY.  INITIALLY PCPN WILL BE RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NRN                
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY              
AS DEEP SNOW COVER ALTERS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE.  GRIDS                 
CURRENTLY HAVE R/S...BUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT WOULD                   
SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL TREND TOWARD FREEZING RN/DZ WITH ALL MODELS              
SHOWING WARM AIR AT H850.  PCPN CWA WIDE TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY                   
THURSDAY AS NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE...ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR              
TO SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION.  WITH SNOW IN PLACE...KEPT TEMPS                
BELOW MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. ...DLF...                          
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEETS/DLF                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
718 PM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED EARLY THIS EVE TO ACCT FOR CLD TRENDS AND SOME TEMPS                    
WHICH HAVE PLUMMETED OVR MSTLY CLR SKIES AND FRESH DEEP SNW COVER.              
READINGS ALREADY SVRL DEGS BLO ZERO AT AMW/MCW.  NEITHER MOS NOR RAW            
MDL TEMPS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL.  MOS TOO WRM AND RAW MDL               
TEMPS GOING TOO COOL BECAUSE THEY DO NOT APPR TO BE AGGRESSIVE                  
ENOUGH WITH SERN IA AND MO STRATUS.  THUS DROPPED COOL SPOTS SVRL               
MORE DEGS THRU 06Z THEN GRDL RISE AS WRM ADVCTN INCRS IN LOWEST 100             
MB PER LATEST RUC.  KEPT TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING INVOF                    
STRATUS.  NOT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS MUCH VARIABILITY                
ATTM.                                                                           
CLD WISE MDLS SEEM TO BE UNDERESTIMATING LOW CLD POTENTIAL.  STRATUS            
SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AS RDG APCHS AND CROSSES MS RVR.  NR              
SFC TEMPS NR START OF DENDRETIC LYR SO OCNL FLURRIES NOTED IN A FEW             
OBS SEEM REASONABLE AND WL CARRY ISOLD MENTION TNGT WHERE ST IS                 
XPCD.  WL ALSO KEEP AREAS OF FOG GOING AS LOW LVL MSTR GRDLLY INCRS             
OVR SNW FIELD.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...400 PM                                                       
NOT AS MANY ISSUES AS THE SEVERAL PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL NOT AS            
SIMPLE AS IT MAY SEEM.  CURRENTLY...SFC RIDGE SLIDING THROUGH                   
CENTRAL IOWA WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE IN MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME LOW                
CLDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTH PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES.  TEMPS               
STRUGGLED TO GET VERY FAR TODAY AS AMPLE NEW SNOWCOVER KEPT HEATING             
IN CHECK.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...APPEARS LOWS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING BEFORE STRONGER WARM            
ADVECTION KICKS IN LATER TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...APPEARS LOW STRATUS            
SHOULD ADVECT NORTH FROM KANSAS AND INTO THE STATE DURING THE                   
OVERNIGHT HELPING TEMPS TO RECOVER FROM EVENING LOWS.  ON                       
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD IOWA WITH THERMAL RIDGE CROSSING            
THE STATE.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE WORKING WITH                
LITTLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE CLOUDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH IOWA.  AS FOR TEMPS...FRESH SNOW COVER              
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT HEATING AND            
STAYED ON COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  THE PASSING OF THE WAVE FRIDAY                
NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SFC RIDGING AS SOME CLEARING BY THE EARLY             
MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY IN THIS SCENARIO AND               
HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW THE COOL MET GUIDANCE. OBVIOUSLY...ANY CLOUDS             
OR HIGHER WINDS WL BUST THIS FORECAST.                                          
STRONG WAA TO ENSUE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL US.  TEMPS THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD AS                
SNOW AND CLOUDS WL PRESENT PROBLEMS.  NICE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE BY            
SUNDAY WITH MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTION MID 50S.  GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND            
DEPTH OF SNOW...HAVE SCRAPPED THAT FOR MUCH COOLER READINGS.                    
EXTENDED FORECAST WL SEE WESTERN TROF EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST BY MID TO            
LATE WEEK.  EXPECT INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING                 
EARLY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL COLD PLUNGE BY THURSDAY OF NEXT              
WEEK.  OTHERWISE...TEMPS WL BE WAFFLING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK                
WITH THE THREAT OF VARIOUS PCPN TYPES A DEFINITE PROBLEM UNTIL FRONT            
ARRIVES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COGIL/SMALL                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
700 PM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SENT QUICK ZONE UPDATE FOR CLOUD/TEMP TRENDS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER             
TONIGHT...AS SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS (MVFR CIGS) IN                          
SOUTHEAST IA LIFTING NORTH WITH LLVL FLOW INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH             
ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE. SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT WITH THE                    
LOW CLOUDS SO ADDED MENTION AS WELL. TEMPS CRASHING NORTH SO                    
ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGS AND BUMPED UP MINS IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE             
CLOUDS.  ..05..                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DICSUSSION...                                                         
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DEPARTING WINTER STORM WELL OUT OF AREA OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS POKING              
NORTH INTO CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF UPPER COMA             
CLOUDS AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAVE KEPT            
FLURRIES GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NW IL. UPSTREAM...AN UPPER             
LEVEL POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FRESH            
SNOW COVER LIMITING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER                 
CWA...WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGITS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND NW IA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CHALLENGE IS                
TEMPERATURES. RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER CWA THIS EVENING            
WITH STAGE SET FOR EARLY TEMPERATURE PLUNG BEFORE WEAK LOW LEVEL                
WARM AIR ADVECTION ENDS THE FALL OR ALLOWS SLIGHT RISE TOWARD                   
MORNING. SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUD FIELD THAT DEVELOPED UNDER                 
RIDGE IN PARTIAL SNOW OR ICE COVERED AREAS OF KS AND MO MAY CONTINUE            
TO INCH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS FORMED IN AN AREA WITH                
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK ISENTROPIC IN RETURN               
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH. WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THESE                 
CLOUDS TO BE RATHER THIN...WILL DISCOUNT THEM FOR FIRST HALF OF                 
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTH. MOS GUIDANCE MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE                
CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS OVER MUCH OF CWA AND THUS DISCOUNTED. WENT                 
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF META AND RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH RAPID               
PLUNGE AFTER SUNSET TO SUB ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW COVERED                
EAST CENTRAL IA...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 12 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW...WILL THEN              
KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR POSSIBLY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES BY MORNING.                 
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH BY EVENING WITH MAIN                
VORT CENTER PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL. WARM ADVECTION            
AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH DAY            
AND SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SE CWA AND THUS PRODUCES QPF BY EVENING WHILE                
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS IN SE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH                   
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TOO WARM FRIDAY AND             
UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW                   
COLDEST MAV IN SOUTH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO                 
LOWER 30S SOUTH WHERE ICE AND SNOW COVER THINNEST. EXPECT CLEARING              
TREND AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS PLUNGING               
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WELL BELOW COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE.                 
..SHEETS..                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPS WITH FLAT WSW UPPER              
FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTING REGION SATURDAY...SETTING UP WEAK              
RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MODELS DROP ANOTHER WEAK                
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.  OF COURSE WITH SNOW COVER OVER                
MOST OF CWA WILL BE GOING NEAR OR UNDER COOLER MET NUMBERS                      
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.  LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT WINDS            
NEAR THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY...IN                    
ADDITION TO THE SNOW COVER.   WEAK SLY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF             
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. THE LOW DRAGS A WEAK COLD             
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CWA EARLY MONDAY.  THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME                  
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND S/W ENERGY MOVING ALONG               
THE BOUNDARY. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY BE THE BIG ISSUE WITH ANY PCPN             
DEVELOPMENT.  12Z GFS RUN WAS SHOWING A NARROW SWATH OF 90 PCT H8 RH            
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY BY 18Z...SO INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THE                  
ENTIRE AREA.  TEMP PROFILES 18Z MONDAY FAVOR RA IN THE SOUTH WHILE              
COLDER H8 TEMPS N SUGGEST A MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                    
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                                   
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                    
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING SW FLOW OVER REGION             
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA HOLDING COLDER AIRMASS WELL TO THE              
NORTH.  THE 06/00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO PHASE THE TWO                 
STREAMS WEDNESDAY BRINING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ERN             
PAC RIDGE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH KEEP THE SPLIT FLOW INTACT             
THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE 06/12Z GFS AT 108HR IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH              
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SUPPORTING THE EUROPEAN MODELS SOLUTION. WILL            
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC                          
ZONE...ENHANCED BY SNOWFIELD...SETTING UP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE AND STRONG BAROCLINIC               
ZONE OVER CWA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN FCST FOR TUESDAY             
THROUGH THURSDAY.  INITIALLY PCPN WILL BE RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NRN                
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY              
AS DEEP SNOW COVER ALTERS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE.  GRIDS                 
CURRENTLY HAVE R/S...BUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT WOULD                   
SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL TREND TOWARD FREEZING RN/DZ WITH ALL MODELS              
SHOWING WARM AIR AT H850.  PCPN CWA WIDE TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY                   
THURSDAY AS NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE...ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR              
TO SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION.  WITH SNOW IN PLACE...KEPT TEMPS                
BELOW MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. ...DLF...                          
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEETS/DLF                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
305 PM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
DEPARTING WINTER STORM WELL OUT OF AREA OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES                
WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS POKING              
NORTH INTO CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BACK EDGE OF UPPER COMA             
CLOUDS AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LEVEL TROUGH HAVE KEPT            
FLURRIES GOING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NW IL. UPSTREAM...AN UPPER             
LEVEL POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES. FRESH            
SNOW COVER LIMITING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER                 
CWA...WITH ONLY SINGLE DIGITS UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL AND NW IA.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CHALLENGE IS                
TEMPERATURES. RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER CWA THIS EVENING            
WITH STAGE SET FOR EARLY TEMPERATURE PLUNG BEFORE WEAK LOW LEVEL                
WARM AIR ADVECTION ENDS THE FALL OR ALLOWS SLIGHT RISE TOWARD                   
MORNING. SOME CONCERN THAT LOW CLOUD FIELD THAT DEVELOPED UNDER                 
RIDGE IN PARTIAL SNOW OR ICE COVERED AREAS OF KS AND MO MAY CONTINUE            
TO INCH NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE CLOUDS FORMED IN AN AREA WITH                
LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK ISENTROPIC IN RETURN               
FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH. WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THESE                 
CLOUDS TO BE RATHER THIN...WILL DISCOUNT THEM FOR FIRST HALF OF                 
TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT FAR SOUTH. MOS GUIDANCE MINS FOR TONIGHT ARE                
CLOSE TO CURRENT OBS OVER MUCH OF CWA AND THUS DISCOUNTED. WENT                 
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF META AND RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH RAPID               
PLUNGE AFTER SUNSET TO SUB ZERO READINGS IN DEEPEST SNOW COVERED                
EAST CENTRAL IA...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 12 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME              
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW...WILL THEN              
KEEP TEMPS STEADY OR POSSIBLY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES BY MORNING.                 
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH BY EVENING WITH MAIN                
VORT CENTER PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL. WARM ADVECTION            
AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH DAY            
AND SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SE CWA AND THUS PRODUCES QPF BY EVENING WHILE                
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP CWA DRY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS IN SE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH                   
FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. MOS GUIDANCE STILL TOO WARM FRIDAY AND             
UNDERCUT BY A COUPLE CATEGORIES NORTH AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW                   
COLDEST MAV IN SOUTH WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 NORTH TO                 
LOWER 30S SOUTH WHERE ICE AND SNOW COVER THINNEST. EXPECT CLEARING              
TREND AS SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS PLUNGING               
INTO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WELL BELOW COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE.                 
..SHEETS..                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPS WITH FLAT WSW UPPER              
FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGE DEPARTING REGION SATURDAY...SETTING UP WEAK              
RETURN FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  MODELS DROP ANOTHER WEAK                
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY.  OF COURSE WITH SNOW COVER OVER                
MOST OF CWA WILL BE GOING NEAR OR UNDER COOLER MET NUMBERS                      
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.  LIMITED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT WINDS            
NEAR THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY...IN                    
ADDITION TO THE SNOW COVER.   WEAK SLY FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF             
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. THE LOW DRAGS A WEAK COLD             
FRONT SOUTH THROUGH CWA EARLY MONDAY.  THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME                  
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND S/W ENERGY MOVING ALONG               
THE BOUNDARY. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE MAY BE THE BIG ISSUE WITH ANY PCPN             
DEVELOPMENT.  12Z GFS RUN WAS SHOWING A NARROW SWATH OF 90 PCT H8 RH            
JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY BY 18Z...SO INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THE                  
ENTIRE AREA.  TEMP PROFILES 18Z MONDAY FAVOR RA IN THE SOUTH WHILE              
COLDER H8 TEMPS N SUGGEST A MIX IS POSSIBLE.                                    
(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                                   
LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                    
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT KEEPING SW FLOW OVER REGION             
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA HOLDING COLDER AIRMASS WELL TO THE              
NORTH.  THE 06/00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS TRYING TO PHASE THE TWO                 
STREAMS WEDNESDAY BRINING MORE ENERGY DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE ERN             
PAC RIDGE THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH KEEP THE SPLIT FLOW INTACT             
THROUGH MID WEEK.  THE 06/12Z GFS AT 108HR IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH              
THIS PIECE OF ENERGY...SUPPORTING THE EUROPEAN MODELS SOLUTION. WILL            
TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC                          
ZONE...ENHANCED BY SNOWFIELD...SETTING UP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.  WITH SW FLOW IN PLACE AND STRONG BAROCLINIC               
ZONE OVER CWA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ALREADY IN FCST FOR TUESDAY             
THROUGH THURSDAY.  INITIALLY PCPN WILL BE RAIN IN THE SOUTH. NRN                
SECTIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY              
AS DEEP SNOW COVER ALTERS TO THE LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE.  GRIDS                 
CURRENTLY HAVE R/S...BUT AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT WOULD                   
SUSPECT THAT THIS WILL TREND TOWARD FREEZING RN/DZ WITH ALL MODELS              
SHOWING WARM AIR AT H850.  PCPN CWA WIDE TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY                   
THURSDAY AS NRN AND SRN STREAMS PHASE...ALLOWING COLD CANADIAN AIR              
TO SURGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION.  WITH SNOW IN PLACE...KEPT TEMPS                
BELOW MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. ...DLF...                          
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHEETS/DLF                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
935 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SRN FRINGE OF CWFA SAW WM FROPA BEFORE SUNSET...ALLOWING THESE CNTYS            
TO DRY OUT. ELSW...PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN                 
IMPRVS INVSN PER 00Z IAD SNDG. THIS PERMITTED OCCLUDED FRONT TO PASS            
THRU W/O SCOURING OUT LLVLS. WNDS JUST OFF THE DECK ARE FM THE W AT             
10-15 KT. SINCE ETA/GFS HAD ENTIRE CWFA IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEIR              
SOLNS ARE SUSPECT ATTM...EVEN THE 18Z RUNS. RUC INIT BETTER IN THE              
LWR LVLS...AND ITS SOLN WL BE FAVORED. IN THIS LIGHT...AXIS OF SFC              
MSTR SHUD SHIFT EWD BTWN 06Z-09Z...AS PRES RISES MVS EWD. BEST                  
MIXING WONT OCCUR TIL AFTR SUNRISE THO.  SO...WL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC            
IN CLD FCST. PER REGIONAL RADAR...DONT SEE ANY ADDTL PCPN...AND WL              
RMV THIS ELEMENT FM GRIDS. OVNGT FCST REMPS APPR OK...THO WL BUMP               
MIN-T UP A CPL ACRS THE SW.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A GREAT DEAL OF VARIABILITY ACRS TAF SITES THIS EVNG.               
LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO STEEP INVSN...AND DONT SEE THIS MVG AT SITES              
WHERE ITS IN PLACE. AS OCFNT MVS OFFSHR AND HIPRES MVS IN...A WNW               
WND WL DVLP...LIFTING LIFR FOG NEAR MIDNGT. HWVR...NOT SO OPTIMISTIC            
ON LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. ATTM THINK IT WL TAKE DAYTIME MIXING TO                     
DISLODGE. HWVR...BWI IN PARTICULAR HAS HAD IT LIFT...PERHAPS DUE TO             
T-GRAD CAUSED BY THE BAY. WL CONT TO MONITOR.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WNDS LGT ATTM. P-GRAD NOT THAT STEEP...AND INVSN WUD KEEP             
WNDS ELEVATED ANYWAY. SO...WL BE DROPPING SCA FOR THE OVNGT.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MATURING UPPER LOW TRANSLATING NORTHEAST               
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN                
CONUS. A WAVE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL                       
ROCKIES...AT THE TAIL OF A SHEAR AXIS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY ALONG               
THE CANADIAN BORDER. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A                 
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE             
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH THE JET MAXIMUM OF 140-155KTS LOCATED                
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                
SHOWS THE OCCLUDING 1003MB CYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST OHIO...WITH AN                
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST TO THE 1003MB TRIPLE POINT CYCLONE                  
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THE WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY                
STRETCHES EAST FROM THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THEN             
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELMARVA. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STRETCHES DOWN            
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT            
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                           
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT NOW PRESSING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND IS                
EXPECTED TO REACH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS              
WILL VEER AS A RESULT...ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE TO ERODE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS            
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE...A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL                 
OCCUR IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE REGION OF THE                     
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES BELOW 3KFT              
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...LAPSE RATES            
WILL STEEPEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SUPPORT WIND                
GUSTS OF ABOUT 35 MPH.                                                          
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND APPROACH OF THE RIGHT            
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF              
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHEAST INTO THE             
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF FORECAST             
AREA SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS...WHILE                 
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA BEFORE             
EVENING. DESPITE A DROP IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...DEEPER MIXING               
WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PTYPE WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY SYSTEM. AT            
THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH            
FOR AN ALL RAIN SYSTEM.                                                         
SOUTHWEST OR NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD BE THE RULE IN THE MID LEVELS             
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FAST MOVING...WEAK AND HARD TO TIME                    
IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.                   
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFFSHORE BY 00Z                 
SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SPINE OF THE                   
APPALACHIANS. A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF STATES AND MOVES            
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS             
OVER THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY                    
MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF THE HIGH CENTER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY JUST WEST             
OF THE CWFA THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE SINKING SOUTHWARD ON DURING                
LATE THURSDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA....NONE.                                                                     
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HTS                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/LISTEMAA                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
936 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOME SURFACE RIDGING NUDGED INTO SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND                   
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH             
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE INTO             
THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING BOUNDARY LAYER             
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY                
DAYBREAK. STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALREADY WORKING INTO LOWER                
MICHIGAN WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION... WHICH                
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE STRATUS ACROSS IL/IN/WESTERN LOWER MI TO             
EXPAND INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 00Z KILX SOUNDING WAS A BIT COLDER IN              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUSPECT THIS              
COLDER AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS UP A BIT HIGHER OVER            
LAKE MICHIGAN THAN DEPICTED BY EITHER RUC OR ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS.               
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKE.            
THE LATEST GRR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO WILL EXTEND SCATTERED                    
FLURRIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.                                                    
WITH THE BRIEF CLEARING EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING... TEMPERATURES                
ACROSS MOST OF SE MICHIGAN FELL TO THE CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS. THE             
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SINCE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING BACK INTO THE            
REGION. SO WILL JUST LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 405 PM)                                 
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER STORM THIS MORNING IS NOW                
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST AT 29.60 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOW               
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH            
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.             
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN               
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE GENESEE AND SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT            
HAS NOW SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN TO M59. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE               
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF M59. THE TROUGH ACROSS              
THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL GET WASHED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW            
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE                   
APPROACHING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. AS THIS                     
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE            
WORKS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE             
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WAS               
CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS. ETA IS MUCH MORE               
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH FRIDAY...SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS             
TO REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. GFS...ON THE OTHER                         
HAND...BEGINS TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THE                  
THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOLES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY TO GO WITH PARTLY              
SUNNY...UNTIL THEN WE WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS              
LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON THESE ANTICIPATIONS...WENT CLOSER TO THE               
MAV GUIDANCE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT             
LEAST COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE COMING WEEK. THERE IS A             
CAVIOT TO THIS UNFORTUNATELY. ETA...AND TO A DEGREE GFS HAS BECOME A            
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES OUT OF THE             
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM RESULTS FROM             
THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A VORTICITY CENTER           
CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH NEVADA. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH             
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE            
FLOW REMAINS BASICALLY ZONAL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THAT            
SAID...12Z ETA OUTPUTS BETTER THAN A 1/4 INCH OF QPF LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. DON/T REALLY               
BUY THIS AMOUNT...BUT GFS ALSO PUTS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREA DURING            
THIS TIMEFRAME (SUPPORTED BY CMC AND WRF AS WELL). WILL ADD A CHANCE            
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO THIS CONSISTENCY IN MODELS             
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DIFFICULT CHORE IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER               
PATTERN TRENDS FROM THE BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE BASE OF LARGE               
NORTH AMERICAN TROF...TO SHARP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONGLY            
AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS TROF DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER             
THE SATURDAY WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH...ANOTHER RACES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY           
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF -RA/-SN. THE ASSOCIATED                
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN ON             
NORTH IN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.              
WILL READJUST THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DURING             
THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT OVERALL FEEL TO THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME              
WITH PERIODIC CHANCE -RA/-SN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                         
THEREAFTER...WE ENTER A PERIOD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT              
PRECIPITATION AS SUBTROPICAL/GULF MOISTURE SURGE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON             
THE LEADING EDGE OF DIGGING WESTERN TROF. GFS OUTPUTS QUITE A LOT OF            
RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PIN THIS TIME AS            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT SHOWERS ETC.                      
BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE LAKES            
REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ONE FASHION OR                  
ANOTHER BY A HOST OF MODELS. THE GENERAL SCENARIO BEING A STRONG                
ARCTIC STORM CROSSING FROM SIBERIA OVER ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM KICKS AN            
UPPER LOW THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF NEAR THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST ATTM ON INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ARCTIC                      
SYSTEM/AIRMASS THEN CHASING RAPIDLY IN BEHIND IT. GFS FOCUSES MUCH              
MORE ON THE NORTHERN SYSTEM & BASICALLY BRINGS THE ARCTIC FRONT                 
THROUGH "UNEVENTFUL"...ASIDE FROM THE STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE/RAIN            
BEFOREHAND. 12Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                    
SHORTWAVE INTACT AND RIDE IT INTO THE AREA ALONG THE ARCTIC                     
FRONT...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM TOWARD THE            
END OF THE FCST. NO CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SPECIFIC SOLUTION AT THIS              
STAGE IN THE GAME...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG OVERALL CONSENSUS ON THE               
UPPER PATTERN TRANSITION BY MODELS...AT LEAST FOR A DAY 6/7 FORECAST            
WILL TREND FORECAST MUCH COLDER AT THE TAIL END OF THE                          
FORECAST...AND TRANSITION RAIN CHANCE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CHCS.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 623 PM.                                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS             
WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY                  
OVERNIGHT. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS                   
DROPPING FROM 5K FEET AT 00Z TO 3K FEET BY 12Z. THERE IS ENOUGH                 
INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAINTAIN LAKE STRATO CU AND                    
SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON INVERSION HEIGHTS AND            
CIGS UPSTREAM... WILL KEEP CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET THROUGH              
THE NIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THIS                
TIME. EXPECT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AND STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...                 
THESE BREAKS WILL FILL BACK IN... ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE LOW                  
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE LOW LEVEL              
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH SOME             
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS OUT DURING            
THE MORNING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GURNEY/SHULER/CONSIDINE                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
623 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS             
WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY                  
OVERNIGHT. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS                   
DROPPING FROM 5K FEET AT 00Z TO 3K FEET BY 12Z. THERE IS ENOUGH                 
INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MAINTAIN LAKE STRATO CU AND                    
SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON INVERSION HEIGHTS AND            
CIGS UPSTREAM... WILL KEEP CEILINGS BETWEEN 2K AND 3K FEET THROUGH              
THE NIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW BREAKS IN THE MVFR CIGS AT THIS                
TIME. EXPECT AS THE INVERSION LOWERS AND STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...                 
THESE BREAKS WILL FILL BACK IN... ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL THE LOW                  
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE LOW LEVEL              
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH SOME             
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD SCATTER THE LOW CLOUDS OUT DURING            
THE MORNING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 405 PM)                                 
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER STORM THIS MORNING IS NOW                
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST AT 29.60 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOW               
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH            
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.             
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN               
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE GENESEE AND SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT            
HAS NOW SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN TO M59. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE               
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF M59. THE TROUGH ACROSS              
THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL GET WASHED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW            
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE                   
APPROACHING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. AS THIS                     
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE            
WORKS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE             
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WAS               
CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS. ETA IS MUCH MORE               
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH FRIDAY...SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS             
TO REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. GFS...ON THE OTHER                         
HAND...BEGINS TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THE                  
THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOLES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY TO GO WITH PARTLY              
SUNNY...UNTIL THEN WE WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS              
LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON THESE ANTICIPATIONS...WENT CLOSER TO THE               
MAV GUIDANCE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT             
LEAST COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE COMING WEEK. THERE IS A             
CAVIOT TO THIS UNFORTUNATELY. ETA...AND TO A DEGREE GFS HAS BECOME A            
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES OUT OF THE             
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM RESULTS FROM             
THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A VORTICITY CENTER           
CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH NEVADA. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH             
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE            
FLOW REMAINS BASICALLY ZONAL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THAT            
SAID...12Z ETA OUTPUTS BETTER THAN A 1/4 INCH OF QPF LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. DON/T REALLY               
BUY THIS AMOUNT...BUT GFS ALSO PUTS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREA DURING            
THIS TIMEFRAME (SUPPORTED BY CMC AND WRF AS WELL). WILL ADD A CHANCE            
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO THIS CONSISTENCY IN MODELS             
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DIFFICULT CHORE IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER               
PATTERN TRENDS FROM THE BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE BASE OF LARGE               
NORTH AMERICAN TROF...TO SHARP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONGLY            
AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS TROF DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER             
THE SATURDAY WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH...ANOTHER RACES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY           
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF -RA/-SN. THE ASSOCIATED                
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN ON             
NORTH IN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.              
WILL READJUST THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DURING             
THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT OVERALL FEEL TO THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME              
WITH PERIODIC CHANCE -RA/-SN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                         
THEREAFTER...WE ENTER A PERIOD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT              
PRECIPITATION AS SUBTROPICAL/GULF MOISTURE SURGE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON             
THE LEADING EDGE OF DIGGING WESTERN TROF. GFS OUTPUTS QUITE A LOT OF            
RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PIN THIS TIME AS            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT SHOWERS ETC.                      
BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE LAKES            
REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ONE FASHION OR                  
ANOTHER BY A HOST OF MODELS. THE GENERAL SCENARIO BEING A STRONG                
ARCTIC STORM CROSSING FROM SIBERIA OVER ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM KICKS AN            
UPPER LOW THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF NEAR THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST ATTM ON INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ARCTIC                      
SYSTEM/AIRMASS THEN CHASING RAPIDLY IN BEHIND IT. GFS FOCUSES MUCH              
MORE ON THE NORTHERN SYSTEM & BASICALLY BRINGS THE ARCTIC FRONT                 
THROUGH "UNEVENTFUL"...ASIDE FROM THE STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE/RAIN            
BEFOREHAND. 12Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                    
SHORTWAVE INTACT AND RIDE IT INTO THE AREA ALONG THE ARCTIC                     
FRONT...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM TOWARD THE            
END OF THE FCST. NO CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SPECIFIC SOLUTION AT THIS              
STAGE IN THE GAME...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG OVERALL CONSENSUS ON THE               
UPPER PATTERN TRANSITION BY MODELS...AT LEAST FOR A DAY 6/7 FORECAST            
WILL TREND FORECAST MUCH COLDER AT THE TAIL END OF THE                          
FORECAST...AND TRANSITION RAIN CHANCE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CHCS.               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GURNEY/SHULER/CONSIDINE                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
401 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH                  
SUNDAY.                                                                         
CURRENT WEATHER...19Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AND UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...A SHRTWV TROUGH EXTENDING            
FROM SE MONTANA INTO NEVADA...AND A MUCH STRONGER SHRTWV TROUGH                 
DIGGING DOWN THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA. A DEFORMATION BAND IS NOTED              
ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE                
SOUTHEASTERN U.P. INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SKIES CLEAR OUT TO              
THE WEST OF THIS BAND...WHERE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS              
IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH WERE QUITE COLD THIS                    
MORNING...WITH READINGS OF 35 TO 40 BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN MN.                
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO QUITE DRY UNDER THIS HIGH AS SEEN ON THE 12Z INL            
SOUNDING (P.W. AROUND 0.03 IN AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 TO 30C             
BETWEEN 600 AND 950MB). THE COMBINATION OF THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN              
AND WINDS BACKING AROUND TO THE SW HAS HELPED TO SHUT OFF THE LAKE              
EFFECT OVER THE U.P.. OFF TO THE NW...A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED            
OVER NE MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO CENTRAL                    
SASKATCHEWAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 0.25 IN AHEAD OF THIS             
FRONT PER THE 12Z SOUNDING AT CYQD (THE PAS ON THE NW END OF LAKE               
WINNIPEG)...BUT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 30C              
BETWEEN 750 AND 850MB. THIS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESTRICTED CLOUD              
FORMATION TO ABOVE 10000 FT PER OBSERVATIONS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT              
FACTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE THE WINDS WITH CWPL AND CYQD               
SHOWING WESTERLY 850MB WINDS AT 40-50 KT.                                       
MODELS...AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY SO FOLLOWED                  
THE ETA FOR DETAILS. AFTER SATURDAY...THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES              
WITH THE PATTERN BETWEEN THE GFS...ETA AND UKMET...WHICH ARE NOTED              
IN THAT SECTION.                                                                
TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MN IS PROGGED TO CROSS UPPER             
MICHIGAN AND REFOCUS INTO A CENTER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS THE COLD             
FRONT TO THE NW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO BY 12Z. WITH THE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT INCREASING...THEREFORE INCREASING THE WINDS...TEMPERATURES             
WILL NOT DROP NEARLY AS MUCH AS THEY DID THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN               
MN. WINDS TURNING TO THE SW AND 925MB TEMPS AROUND -9C MAY SUPPORT              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO              
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH THE INVERSIONS BETWEEN               
925MB AND 900MB IT WILL NOT BE ANYTHING MAJOR...MAYBE ONLY A FEW                
FLURRIES OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY             
AIR AND THE EXIT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND WILL ALLOW SKIES TO                    
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE CWA.                                            
FRIDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NEVADA MOVES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY               
18Z AND INTO MISSOURI BY 00Z...MEANWHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO              
OUR NW MOVES TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z. WITH THE FRONT                    
ORIENTING ITSELF WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN              
AND MOVE SLOWLY...WHICH IS WHAT THE MODELS SHOW. 00Z ETA SHOWED A               
STRONGER FRONT...BUT BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS HAVE NOW TRENDED AWAY            
FROM IT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED WITH THE FRONT DUE TO               
BOTH LINGERING DRY AIR AND THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS. SO OTHER THAN FOR SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS EAST OF MANISTIQUE IN THE MORNING...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY                  
SUNNY DAY. ETA AND GFS SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME HIGHER RH IN THE                  
LOWEST 2000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT REALLY SEE WHERE               
ITS COMING FROM. INITIAL THOUGHT IS SNOWMELT ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY            
WHICH IS TRANSPORTED THROUGH MN INTO WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN ON                   
FRIDAY. THE 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT PLOT FROM THE ETA SORT OF SUGGESTS             
THIS. BUT WITHOUT ANY LOW CLOUD OUT THERE AT THE MOMENT...HARD TO               
BELIEVE THIS WILL OCCUR. LOOKED AT SURFACE DEWPOINT COMPARISONS                 
BETWEEN OBSERVED AND MODELS AT 18Z AND I SEE THAT THEY ARE ABOUT                
3-5C HIGHER ON THE MODELS THAN OBSERVED. GIVEN THIS...WILL STAY MORE            
WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.                                                  
FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BUT STOPS AS               
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORMS IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW            
IN THE PACIFIC NW. COLD ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS MINIMAL WITH                
850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM -5C AT 21Z TO -10C AT 12Z OVER WESTERN                 
SUPERIOR. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW                    
SHOWERS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN THE            
SURFACE AND 850MB...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF                     
ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT.                                                          
SATURDAY...COLD FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN OR                
MOVES SLIGHTLY BACK NORTHWARD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUE TO                
BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE WEST...A SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF              
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST MOVES INTO MONTANA BY 00Z              
IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SW NORTH DAKOTA AS            
A RESULT OF THIS SHRTWV...WITH THE WARM FRONT CONNECTED TO THE OLD              
COLD FRONT OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. LACK OF ANY MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO              
MID LEVELS ALONG WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION                  
CHANCES SLIM. THE ONLY PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE LAKE             
EFFECT AREAS IN THE MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD.               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHRTWV OVER MONTANA AND THE ASSOCIATED             
SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z                         
SUN...PULLING THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. LITTLE PRECIPITATION                    
EXPECTED AGAIN DUE TO LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND MOISTURE. MORE                  
MOISTURE MOVES IN ON SUN WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV EJECTING OUT OF THE                
PACIFIC NW TROUGH. THIS SHRTWV HELPS DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER                 
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AT 12Z SUN WHICH MOVES TO NW WI BY 00Z.              
THIS POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH            
AND UKMET FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW (MIXED            
WITH RAIN EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER)...HOWEVER NOT REAL                
EXCITED WITH PRECIPITATION EXCEPT ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW.                    
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED TOO FOR BOTH SAT NIGHT AND                        
SUN...THOUGH NOT GOING HAS HIGH AS THE MAV GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE              
ETA AND UKMET ARE COLDER.                                                       
EXTENDED (MON THROUGH THU)...MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL PATTERN                
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS               
THU WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAST THE COLD AIR OVER WESTERN CANADA PUSHES            
E. ON MON...A SHRTWV MOVING DOWN THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST HELPS TO            
BOTH SHEAR AND KICK OUT THE SHRTWV ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                  
COAST. AS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA SHRTWV DIGS SOUTHWARD...THE OTHER                
SHRTWV PUSHES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...RESULTING IN THE                     
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER KANSAS ON TUE. THE WARM FRONT                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS. BY TUE NIGHT...A POLAR VORTEX SETS UP OVER PARTS OF                   
NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                    
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO MONTANA. TEMPERATURES VERY COLD UNDER THIS             
VORTEX WITH 850MB READINGS AROUND -40C. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HELPS            
TO PULL THE KANSAS SURFACE LOW NE TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA BY                    
WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN OFF TO WESTERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOW             
QUICK THIS OCCURS DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THE POLAR VORTEX AND                      
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD. HALF OF THE GFS                    
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE OTHER HALF ONE LIKE THE             
00Z GFS. THE 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z UKMET SEEM TO BE A GOOD                    
COMPROMISE...THOUGH THE SLOWER SOLUTION MAY END UP PANNING OUT GIVEN            
HOW STRONG THE RIDGING IS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. FOR THU...EXPECT               
COLD AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH               
THE LAKES...INITIATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF OF SUPERIOR.                       
AS FOR THE GRIDS...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT PUTTING IN A               
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P.              
HAS WARMER AIR FLOWS NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF                 
EVERYTHING STAYS ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST 12Z                                   
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...THERE WILL NEED TO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN               
PUT IN TOO...BUT THE EVENT IS TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE THAT AT THE              
MOMENT. EITHER WAY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS                  
INTERESTING FOR THE ENTIRE EAST HALF OF THE COUNTRY.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
349 AM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FINALLY SEEING THE WINTER STORM PULLING OUT OF THE REGION. SURFACE              
OBS SHOWING LINGERING FLURRIES AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE FREEZING                   
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.               
TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THE              
MOMENT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS THIS              
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN COOL. THE COOL TEMPS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL              
SET THE REGION UP FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS FOR            
MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING...WITH WARM AIR              
ADVECTION SETTING UP. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS WILL               
STILL MODERATE SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE LAYER OF ICE AND SNOW ON                 
EVERYTHING.                                                                     
GFS/ETA MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS               
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE KEPT LOWS ON THE                
COOL SIDE. WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS UP IN EARNEST ONCE AGAIN OVER              
THE WEEKEND. SO EXPECT TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT.                                    
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS (ESPECIALLY THE            
ETA) SHOW A STRONG FOG PROFILE. BOTH GFS AND ETA SHOW HIGHER DEW                
POINTS RAPIDLY MOVING NORTH INTO THE REGION...AS TROUGH OUT WEST                
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES CLOSER.                                                     
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
858 PM WED...                                                                   
HAVE REVAMPED WARNINGS A BIT. EXTENDED THE ONE FOR NORTHWEST                    
MISSOURI UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS.             
DEFORMATION BAND ROTATING THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO             
PRODUCE ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS THAT REGION THIS EVENING.               
SCALED BACK THE WARNING IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THINK THIS                   
DEFORMATION BAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST...SO ONLY COUNTIES               
ALONG THE IOWA BORDER SHOULD SEE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL                  
ACCUMULATION.                                                                   
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP JUST A TOUCH AROUND THE KANSAS CITY AREA             
FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP READINGS JUST A LITTLE                 
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL LOOKS QUITE COLD IN NORTHWEST             
MISSOURI...WHERE SINGLE DIGITS ARE POISED JUST TO THE                           
NORTHWEST...AND SHOULD MOVE IN AS SNOW LETS UP...AND DEWPOINTS START            
TO TUMBLE.                                                                      
PC                                                                              
704 PM WED...                                                                   
NOT SEEING SECONDARY TROWAL PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND SNOW IS RAPIDLY            
DEPARTING MUCH OF FORECAST AREA. ONLY NORTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE              
TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING...AS THEY ARE ON THE EDGE OF              
THE DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW ACROSS IOWA AND NEBRASKA. WILL ALLOW               
WARNINGS AND ADVISORY THAT END AT 9 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF                  
FORECAST AREA EXPIRE. WILL TAKE A LOOK CLOSER TO 9 PM TO SEE IF THE             
WARNING FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT.             
PC                                                                              
245 PM WED...                                                                   
CURRENTLY WATCHING REFLECTIVITY TAKE ON MESOSCALE BANDING                       
CHARACTERISTICS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SEEMS TO BE                 
RIGHT IN LINE WITH ETA/RUC PROGGED RAPID INCREASE IN VERTICAL MOTION            
AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS JET            
STREAK CRASHING INTO WESTERN TEXAS...PUTTING MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS             
AND WESTERN MISSOURI IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION.                         
BELIEVE SNOW WILL BECOME THE MORE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE IN MOST              
AREAS NORTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE BY LATE                         
AFTERNOON...AS THE SLOWLY DEEPENING COLD LAYER IS ENHANCE BY                    
DIABATIC COOLING PROCESSES IN AREA OF VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE                
LIFT (ON THE ORDER OF 5-8 MBS-1). ETA/GFS BOTH DEPICT A TROWAL NEAR             
THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...THAT LIFTS NORTH             
INTO IOWA LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...ETA ALSO DEPICTS SECONDARY              
TROWAL STRUCTURE FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS SEEMS            
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND MAY BE REPRESENTED BY ENHANCED            
REFLECTIVITY ON KEAX IMAGERY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE THOUGHTS IN            
MIND...WITH A 1-3 INCH STRIPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM KC TO                   
KIRKSVILLE...AND 3-6 INCH SNOW TOTALS IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI                 
CLOSER TO 500MB LOW TRACK. LIGHTEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FOUND ON              
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE METRO. HAVE CONCERNS THAT SNOW MAY TAKE ON                
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CHARACTERISTICS TOWARDS SUNSET...GIVEN THETA              
SURFACE FOLDING ON ETA CROSS SECTION NEAR 700 MB FROM OMAHA TO THE              
LAKE OF THE OZARKS. WILL WAIT AND SEE SINCE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT            
MAY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.                   
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY SEE PRECIPITATION             
WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING...SO LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR               
AND CANCEL ONGOING WARNINGS AS APPROPRIATE.                                     
SYSTEM SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS              
WILL REMAIN BRUTAL THOUGH...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO               
NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                                   
HUDSON                                                                          
ONGOING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY                
SUNRISE THURSDAY...HOWEVER EFFECTS WILL STILL BE FELT INTO THE DAY              
THURSDAY...AS SNOW/ICE COVER WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE                
TEENS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOW END             
OF GUIDANCE FOR THURS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS FRI MORNING...WHEN TEMPS             
LOOK TO RUN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MO.             
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS REGION FOR FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT              
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF                     
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE              
REMOVED CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER MODELS SUGGEST WESTERN               
LONGWAVE TO RELOAD FOR EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WENT                 
AHEAD AND INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AT              
THIS TIME IS APPEARS PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN LIQUID.                            
MS                                                                              
1140 AM WED...                                                                  
UPDATED FORECASTS AND WARNINGS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT EVOLUTION OF             
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO A                   
SLEET/SNOW MIX IN THE METRO AREA...WITH SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE                
CITY. OLATHE CENTER WEATHER SERVICE UNIT REPORTED VISIBILITIES                  
AROUND A HALF MILE IN HEAVY SLEET WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.                         
EXPECT THIS NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN A MIX OF SLEET AND            
SNOW BEFORE TURNING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN              
MISSOURI. POINTS TO THE EAST WILL SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND                
SLEET. AFTER THIS ROUND...A FINAL BLAST OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION                 
APPEARS POSSIBLE PER THE 12Z ETA/GFS MODELS...AS MAIN SHORTWAVE                 
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. CONSERVATIVE FORECASTS FROM MODEL/HPC QPF               
INDICATE A BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
INTO THE EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO                     
KIRKSVILLE. SNOW AND WIND WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE EVENING COMMUTE.             
HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS                    
THINKING...AND ALSO EXTENDED THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNINGS                  
ANOTHER FEW HOURS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
843 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER AREA WITH TRAILING END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH             
OVER OH RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM KHKY TO KATL              
AT 00Z...AND MAKING SLOW PROGRESS E. KGSP RADAR SHOWING NO                      
PRECIPITAITON...AND POPS WILL REMAIN OUT OF FORECAST. SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY SHOWS BKN CLOUDS OVER AREA...AND EXTENISVE CLOUD COVER                  
UPSTREAM WELL INTO TN. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND FRI               
MORNING AS SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT HAVE BACK END OF MOISTURE AS              
FAR E AS MODELS. COLD ADVECTION A BIT BEHIND SCHEDULE...AND WILL                
RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO. DEW POINT RUNNING SEVERAL               
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST IN EAST...AND HAVE ADJUSTED TO FIT THIS TREND.           
UPDATED WIND WITH 21Z RUC...THOUGH LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS WIND.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 203 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                    
COLD FRONT EASILY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM              
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS SRN AL AND CENTRAL GA TO THE SRN               
APPALACHIANS. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH AGREE THAT THE COVERAGE OF SHRA              
SHOULD DIMINISH EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CHC                 
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z. TONIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD             
SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NC/SC/GA AND BECOME STATIONARY. BEHIND THE                   
FRONT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TO PC AND BRIEF CAA WILL TAKE PLACE BY             
8Z...TEMPS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT.                                  
FRI...MESOETA AND GFS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE                  
FUTURE OF THE STALLED FRONT. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WILL PULLING            
THE FRONT NORTH AND ARRIVING OVER THE CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE               
MESOETA IS SLOWER BY AROUND 6 HRS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH                        
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CLOUDINESS THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...THE MOS               
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEMPS FRI THROUGH FRI             
NIGHT. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND               
WILL SHOW FAVOR TO THE GFS GUIDANCE.                                            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH            
FRI MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY            
FRI AFTERNOON. BOTH ETA AND GFS SHOW THE GREATEST QPF TO REMAIN                 
OVER TN FRI. THE EXPECTED FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER KY FRI NIGHT            
WILL HELP SWING THE AXIS OF RAINFALL EASTWARD FRI NIGHT AND EARLY               
SAT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. COVERAGE OF THE SHRA OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN SHOULD EASILY BECOME WIDESPREAD FRI NIGHT...HAVE INCREASED              
POPS TO CATE AND WILL USE LIKELY TO HIGH CHC FURTHER EAST. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE FA DRY INTO MON.             
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
LOW ARCTIC HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH LOBES OF ENERGY              
DROPPING INTO THE NW CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLOW OVER               
THE CWA WILL BEGIN AS ZONAL ON MON AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME                    
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP              
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WITH SFC HIGH                   
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO               
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH RICHER MOISTURE            
AND SPRING LIKE THICKNESSES. FOLLOWING HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WED            
AND THU AS STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL             
INTRODUCE MTN CHCS WED AFTERNOON AS PLUME OF MOISTURE BUILDS OUT OF             
THE GULF AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE OF FRONTAL SHRA            
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA THU...WILL LIMIT TO CHC AT THIS                  
TIME.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. CURRENTLY            
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MVRF CIGS...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
LATE AFTN. THEREAFTER VEERING FLOW WL RESULT IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE            
AND LLVL ADVECTION OF DRIER DWPTS WHICH WL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL                
DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CIGS. THERE WL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED            
VISIBILITIES AND -SHRA ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN                
HANDLED AT MOST SITES WITH A TEMPO GROUP. GUSTY SWLY WINDS WL                   
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS STRONGER LLVL GRADIENT WORKS E OF THE             
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER TNGT               
EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS...NOTABLY KAND...TO HAVE SOME FOG AS WNDS                
BECOME LGT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO THE TAFS AT KCLT AND               
KHKY WHERE WNDS WL BE LIGHTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
203 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
COLD FRONT EASILY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM              
THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS SRN AL AND CENTRAL GA TO THE SRN               
APPALACHIANS. RUC AND MESOETA BOTH AGREE THAT THE COVERAGE OF SHRA              
SHOULD DIMINISH EAST OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...CHC                 
COVERAGE SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH 22Z. TONIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD             
SLIDE OVER CENTRAL NC/SC/GA AND BECOME STATIONARY. BEHIND THE                   
FRONT...CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH TO PC AND BRIEF CAA WILL TAKE PLACE BY             
8Z...TEMPS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT.                                  
FRI...MESOETA AND GFS BEGIN TO SHOW MORE DISAGREEMENT WITH THE                  
FUTURE OF THE STALLED FRONT. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WILL PULLING            
THE FRONT NORTH AND ARRIVING OVER THE CWA WITH DEEP MOISTURE. THE               
MESOETA IS SLOWER BY AROUND 6 HRS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH                        
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CLOUDINESS THAN THE GFS. AS A RESULT...THE MOS               
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TEMPS FRI THROUGH FRI             
NIGHT. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE APPROACH BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS AND               
WILL SHOW FAVOR TO THE GFS GUIDANCE.                                            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH            
FRI MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY            
FRI AFTERNOON. BOTH ETA AND GFS SHOW THE GREATEST QPF TO REMAIN                 
OVER TN FRI. THE EXPECTED FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT OVER KY FRI NIGHT            
WILL HELP SWING THE AXIS OF RAINFALL EASTWARD FRI NIGHT AND EARLY               
SAT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. COVERAGE OF THE SHRA OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN SHOULD EASILY BECOME WIDESPREAD FRI NIGHT...HAVE INCREASED              
POPS TO CATE AND WILL USE LIKELY TO HIGH CHC FURTHER EAST. HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE SAT EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE FA DRY INTO MON.             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
LOW ARCTIC HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER WESTERN CANADA WITH LOBES OF ENERGY              
DROPPING INTO THE NW CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FLOW OVER               
THE CWA WILL BEGIN AS ZONAL ON MON AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME                    
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THU. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP              
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH WITH SFC HIGH                   
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC. WILL EXPECT A SOUTH WIND TO               
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALONG WITH RICHER MOISTURE            
AND SPRING LIKE THICKNESSES. FOLLOWING HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY WED            
AND THU AS STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EAST COAST. WILL             
INTRODUCE MTN CHCS WED AFTERNOON AS PLUME OF MOISTURE BUILDS OUT OF             
THE GULF AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE OF FRONTAL SHRA            
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA THU...WILL LIMIT TO CHC AT THIS                  
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN RISING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HOURS. CURRENTLY            
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE MVRF CIGS...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH             
LATE AFTN. THEREAFTER VEERING FLOW WL RESULT IN INCREASING DOWNSLOPE            
AND LLVL ADVECTION OF DRIER DWPTS WHICH WL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL                
DISSIPATION OF THE LOWER CIGS. THERE WL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED            
VISIBILITIES AND -SHRA ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS BEEN                
HANDLED AT MOST SITES WITH A TEMPO GROUP. GUSTY SWLY WINDS WL                   
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL AS STRONGER LLVL GRADIENT WORKS E OF THE             
REGION. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATER TNGT               
EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS...NOTABLY KAND...TO HAVE SOME FOG AS WNDS                
BECOME LGT. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO THE TAFS AT KCLT AND               
KHKY WHERE WNDS WL BE LIGHTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...NED                                                      
AVIATION...BPM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1000 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...HIGH PRES THAT WAS ANCHORED JUST OUTSIDE THE              
COASTAL WATERS NOW PUSHING WELL INTO THE ATLC AS THE STRONG FNTL SYS            
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY PUSHES EWD. AS FNT APCHS CLOUDS            
WILL CONTINUE TO INCRS...ESP FOR INLAND COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING                
FAIRLY SOLID CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE REGIONS OF              
SC AND OVER MUCH OF GA THAT IS PROGRESSING TWD THE CWFA. TIME                   
HEIGHTS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS SHOW THICKER MOISTURE EARLIER THAN                 
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND GOING ZFP HAS THE IDEA OF INLAND                          
MOCLDY/COASTAL PCLDY HANDLED WELL. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW               
THIS PLAYS INTO HIGH TEMPS TDA AS COMPARED TO SWLY WAA. RECORD HIGHS            
AT BOTH CHS AND SAV ARE 78 TDA AND THESE VALUES WILL CERTAINLY BE               
FLIRTED WITH. OVERALL VALUES FOR ZONES LOOK GOOD. AS FOR WINDS...               
PRES GRAD WILL TIGHTEN THRU THE AFTN BETWEEN THE SLOWLY EXITING HIGH            
AND THE STEADILY APCHG FNTL BNDRY. WILL CLEAN UP WORDING AND RUN                
WITH HIGHER AFTN VALUES.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...WINDS AT PINEVILLE HAVE COME IN AT 15-20 MPH                      
THE PAST 2 HRS. 12Z KCHS SOUNDING SHOWS 30 KT BETWEEN 1-2 KFT WHICH             
SEEMS TO BE MIXING DOWN JUST ENOUGH DESPITE COLD WATER TEMPS AND                
WARMER AIR ALOFT. RUC 925MB WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KT WHICH SEEMS                 
UNDERDONE AND HAS ALSO INITIALIZED WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN OBS.             
WITH THE INCRD PRES GRAD EXPECTED THIS AFTN...LWA CRITERIA MAY JUST             
BE REACHED SO WILL ISSUE LWA WITH MINIMAL CRITERIA.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...S-SW FLOW WILL INCRS THRU THE AFTN AS PRES GRAD INCRS.                
GOING CWF HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK.              
ONLY COSMETIC WORDING CHANGES NEEDED AND WILL KEEP SCEC HEADLINE FOR            
CHS HARBOR.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 07/08Z WITH UPR LVL SCT/BKN                  
CLOUDS AND MIDLVL SCT CLOUDS. AFTER 07/08Z...MVFR TO IFR LOW STRATUS            
LOOKS TO BE A CONCERN...ESP AT KSAV. WILL MAINTAIN BKN CIGS AOB                 
500FT FOR TMRW MRNG. INCRG WIND SPEEDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LOOK TO                
OCCUR THIS AFTN AND GOING 06/12Z TAFS HAVE THIS ADVERTISED.                     
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY SCZ045.                                                 
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
825 PM MST THU JAN 5 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED               
FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH LOW             
STRATUS DECK AND SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE                 
FRONT IS ABOUT 3 HOURS QUICKER THAN SHOWN ON THE 00Z ETA...MORE IN              
LINE WITH THE CURRENT RUC SOLUTION. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO            
ADJUST TIMING OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TO ADD A                 
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND                        
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A SURFACE FRONT WILL WILL ENTER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND            
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL MOVE                     
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY                   
MORNING. LOW STRATUS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...LEADING TO MAINLY                  
MVFR..WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT             
SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                   
215 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING...WILL ONLY LEAVE IN A              
FEW SHOWERS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...MAINLY EAST. WILL KEEP SOME                 
GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS                        
OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. OVERCAST CONDITIONS                
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  S/W MOVING EAST IN FAST FLOW WITH               
SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP IN TENNESSEE VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST LATE              
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH ETA/GFS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS AND            
FAIRLY CONSISTENT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS                  
SYSTEM TO AFFECT CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL              
SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING SATURDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY 40-50KT LLJ               
MOVING ACROSS DURING THIS TIME. WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS SIMILAR TO                 
TODAY. ENDING PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.                 
CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S. HIGHS WILL              
RANGE FROM LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM GOING TREND. MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT            
APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (DANVILLE ONLY)...                                                    
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OF LIGHT                
RAIN THROUGH AROUND 00Z...WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER AFTERWARD                  
LINGERING FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS EVENING                     
APPROACHES...WITH SUSTAINED 12 TO 14 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20KT UNTIL                
AROUND 22Z...THEN FURTHER DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1001 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                     
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING TO REMOVE FOG AND REFERENCE             
TO MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS...NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY              
FOR NOW. KEEP LIKELY POPS IN MOUNTAINS.                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS              
AT ROA ND LYH ARE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY              
BECOME SE THIS MORNING. AS THE FNT MOVES NORTH...CONDITIONS WILL                
IMPROVE TO VFR.                                                                 
BAND OF SHRA COMING OUT OF THE OH VALLEY WILL REACH BLF AND LWB                 
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHRA. THE              
RAIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LIGHT SHRA WL                
REACH ROA...LYH AND DAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON SHARPLY DROPPING                  
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING IFR TO MVFR CIGS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WV.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT                 
BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH WL BE CENTERED OVER THE                
REGION AT THAT TIME.                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                       
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING WEST BY SUN WITH US IN ZONAL PTTN.                      
FRONT IS SLOWER ON ETA/GFS/RUC NOW. WL REFLECT SLOWER TIMING IN                 
WINDS AND IN ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CHC WL BE REMOVED FROM EAST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FAR EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.                
WARM FNT SHUD BE BACK NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY. THEN 8H TEMPS START               
DROPPING IN THE WEST AFT 12Z BUT NOT AT DAN AND LYH UNTIL AFT 18Z.              
WL HAVE AFTN TEMPS FALLING IN THE WEST.  VERY LITTLE 7H UVV WITH THE            
FNT ON THE GFS TYPICAL OF THE LOW LVL WLY FLOW. WL KEEP LOWEST POPS             
IN THE PIEDMONT.                                                                
BASED ON RH PROGS SHUD HAVE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST FROM                
00Z-06Z. SFC FNT GETS DOWN TO NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z FRI. STILL GOOD               
PRES RISES TNGT BUT 8H JET ONLY 30-40 KTS BEHIND THE FNT SO NO                  
CHANGES NEEDED TO POST FRONTAL WINDS.                                           
7-3RH INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH FRI MORN.WL BE CLOUDY ACROSS               
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z. COLUMN SATURATES DOWN TO LOW LVL AND ENOUGH TO               
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. BY FRI NGT AREA IN RRQ OF UPPER JET LATE. WL ADD             
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IN THE WEST WHEN GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL BE            
AIDED BY DECENT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE             
MODELS IS THE AMOUNT OF INFLOW OFF THE GULF. 8H RIDGING NOT AS                  
STRONG OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS ALLOWING FOR BETTER TRANSPORT OF                
GULF MOISTURE. WL BE BRINGING UP PWINS AROUND AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                
GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTEHR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF                    
HEAVIEST QPF. WL HAVE THE LARGEST QPF IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FRI              
NIGHT.                                                                          
SHRTWV COMING FROM CURRENT POSN IN IDAHO CROSSES CWA SAT MORN. SFC              
LOW CROSSES VA SAT MORN. DEEP RH MOVES EAST BY 18Z BUT DOES NOT DRY             
OUT BELOW 8H UNTIL SUN MORN SO WL STAY PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUDS                
COVER.                                                                          
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
CUT BACK POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS TIMING APPEARS FASTER WITH MOISTURE.            
ELECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO              
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MILDER AS WARM AIR ADVANCING                 
NORTH. RAISED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND                  
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ADDED LIGHT POPS TO FAR WEST ON MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUDGED POPS IN WEST UP FOR WEDNESDAY.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SFC OBS AND MSAS DATA SHOWED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED INTO EASTERN                 
SECTIONS OF VA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW             
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.            
LATE THIS MORNING IT SHOULD MIX OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.               
EXPECT AIRPORTS TO SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA               
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN MVFR AT KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN AROUND             
09Z TO 12Z. COLD FRONT WITH MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS POISED TO             
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN            
FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z THURSDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL            
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS             
TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
WEST WINDS SHOULD DRY IT OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                          
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP/RA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                   
1001 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
LATE MORNING UPDATE TO CLEAN UP WORDING TO REMOVE FOG AND REFERENCE             
TO MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS...NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY              
FOR NOW. KEEP LIKELY POPS IN MOUNTAINS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 647 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS              
AT ROA ND LYH ARE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY              
BECOME SE THIS MORNING. AS THE FNT MOVES NORTH...CONDITIONS WILL                
IMPROVE TO VFR.                                                                 
BAND OF SHRA COMING OUT OF THE OH VALLEY WILL REACH BLF AND LWB                 
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHRA. THE              
RAIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LIGHT SHRA WL                
REACH ROA...LYH AND DAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON SHARPLY DROPPING                  
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING IFR TO MVFR CIGS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WV.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT                 
BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH WL BE CENTERED OVER THE                
REGION AT THAT TIME.                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                       
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING WEST BY SUN WITH US IN ZONAL PTTN.                      
FRONT IS SLOWER ON ETA/GFS/RUC NOW. WL REFLECT SLOWER TIMING IN                 
WINDS AND IN ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CHC WL BE REMOVED FROM EAST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FAR EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.                
WARM FNT SHUD BE BACK NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY. THEN 8H TEMPS START               
DROPPING IN THE WEST AFT 12Z BUT NOT AT DAN AND LYH UNTIL AFT 18Z.              
WL HAVE AFTN TEMPS FALLING IN THE WEST.  VERY LITTLE 7H UVV WITH THE            
FNT ON THE GFS TYPICAL OF THE LOW LVL WLY FLOW. WL KEEP LOWEST POPS             
IN THE PIEDMONT.                                                                
BASED ON RH PROGS SHUD HAVE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST FROM                
00Z-06Z. SFC FNT GETS DOWN TO NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z FRI. STILL GOOD               
PRES RISES TNGT BUT 8H JET ONLY 30-40 KTS BEHIND THE FNT SO NO                  
CHANGES NEEDED TO POST FRONTAL WINDS.                                           
7-3RH INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH FRI MORN.WL BE CLOUDY ACROSS               
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z. COLUMN SATURATES DOWN TO LOW LVL AND ENOUGH TO               
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. BY FRI NGT AREA IN RRQ OF UPPER JET LATE. WL ADD             
A PERIOD OF MOSERATE RAIN IN THE WEST WHEN GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL BE            
AIDED BY DECENT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE             
MODELS IS THE AMOUNT OF INFLOW OFF THE GULF. 8H RIDGING NOT AS                  
STRONG OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS ALLOWING FOR BETTER TRANSPORT OF                
GULF MOISTURE. WL BE BRINGING UP PWINS AROUND AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                
GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTEHR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF                    
HEAVIEST QPF. WL HAVE THE LARGEST QPF IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FRI              
NIGHT.                                                                          
SHRTWV COMING FROM CURRENT POSN IN IDAHO CROSSES CWA SAT MORN. SFC              
LOW CROSSES VA SAT MORN. DEEP RH MOVES EAST BY 18Z BUT DOES NOT DRY             
OUT BELOW 8H UNTIL SUN MORN SO WL STAY PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUDS                
COVER.                                                                          
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
CUT BACK POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS TIMING APPEARS FASTER WITH MOISTURE.            
ELECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO              
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MILDER AS WARM AIR ADVANCING                 
NORTH. RAISED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND                  
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ADDED LIGHT POPS TO FAR WEST ON MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUDGED POPS IN WEST UP FOR WEDNESDAY.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SFC OBS AND MSAS DATA SHOWED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED INTO EASTERN                 
SECTIONS OF VA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW             
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.            
LATE THIS MORNING IT SHOULD MIX OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.               
EXPECT AIRPORTS TO SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA               
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN MVFR AT KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN AROUND             
09Z TO 12Z. COLD FRONT WITH MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS POISED TO             
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN            
FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z THURSDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL            
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS             
TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
WEST WINDS SHOULD DRY IT OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                          
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RA                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
647 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDS              
AT ROA ND LYH ARE TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL GRADUALLY              
BECOME SE THIS MORNING. AS THE FNT MOVES NORTH...CONDITIONS WILL                
IMPROVE TO VFR.                                                                 
BAND OF SHRA COMING OUT OF THE OH VALLEY WILL REACH BLF AND LWB                 
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHRA. THE              
RAIN WILL WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...BUT LIGHT SHRA WL                
REACH ROA...LYH AND DAN DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                   
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON SHARPLY DROPPING                  
TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING IFR TO MVFR CIGS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST WV.               
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT                 
BUT WILL DIMINISH BY 12Z AS THE SFC HIGH WL BE CENTERED OVER THE                
REGION AT THAT TIME.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 AM EST THU JAN 6 2005)                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTING WEST BY SUN WITH US IN ZONAL PTTN.                      
FRONT IS SLOWER ON ETA/GFS/RUC NOW. WL REFLECT SLOWER TIMING IN                 
WINDS AND IN ARRIVAL OF PCPN. CHC WL BE REMOVED FROM EAST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FAR EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.                
WARM FNT SHUD BE BACK NORTH OF THE CWA EARLY. THEN 8H TEMPS START               
DROPPING IN THE WEST AFT 12Z BUT NOT AT DAN AND LYH UNTIL AFT 18Z.              
WL HAVE AFTN TEMPS FALLING IN THE WEST.  VERY LITTLE 7H UVV WITH THE            
FNT ON THE GFS TYPICAL OF THE LOW LVL WLY FLOW. WL KEEP LOWEST POPS             
IN THE PIEDMONT.                                                                
BASED ON RH PROGS SHUD HAVE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST FROM                
00Z-06Z. SFC FNT GETS DOWN TO NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z FRI. STILL GOOD               
PRES RISES TNGT BUT 8H JET ONLY 30-40 KTS BEHIND THE FNT SO NO                  
CHANGES NEEDED TO POST FRONTAL WINDS.                                           
7-3RH INCREASES AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH FRI MORN.WL BE CLOUDY ACROSS               
ENTIRE CWA BY 18Z. COLUMN SATURATES DOWN TO LOW LVL AND ENOUGH TO               
RAIN BY AFTERNOON. BY FRI NGT AREA IN RRQ OF UPPER JET LATE. WL ADD             
A PERIOD OF MOSERATE RAIN IN THE WEST WHEN GOOD JET DYNAMICS WILL BE            
AIDED BY DECENT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT. BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE             
MODELS IS THE AMOUNT OF INFLOW OFF THE GULF. 8H RIDGING NOT AS                  
STRONG OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS ALLOWING FOR BETTER TRANSPORT OF                
GULF MOISTURE. WL BE BRINGING UP PWINS AROUND AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                
GFS IS JUST SLIGHTLY FARTEHR EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF                    
HEAVIEST QPF. WL HAVE THE LARGEST QPF IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY FRI              
NIGHT.                                                                          
SHRTWV COMING FROM CURRENT POSN IN IDAHO CROSSES CWA SAT MORN. SFC              
LOW CROSSES VA SAT MORN. DEEP RH MOVES EAST BY 18Z BUT DOES NOT DRY             
OUT BELOW 8H UNTIL SUN MORN SO WL STAY PESSIMISTIC ON THE CLOUDS                
COVER.                                                                          
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
CUT BACK POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS TIMING APPEARS FASTER WITH MOISTURE.            
ELECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO              
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT MILDER AS WARM AIR ADVANCING                 
NORTH. RAISED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND                  
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. ADDED LIGHT POPS TO FAR WEST ON MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NUDGED POPS IN WEST UP FOR WEDNESDAY.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SFC OBS AND MSAS DATA SHOWED BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED INTO EASTERN                 
SECTIONS OF VA THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW             
CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.            
LATE THIS MORNING IT SHOULD MIX OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.               
EXPECT AIRPORTS TO SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA               
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...THEN MVFR AT KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN AROUND             
09Z TO 12Z. COLD FRONT WITH MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS POISED TO             
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY...MOVING INTO THE EASTERN            
FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z THURSDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL            
OCCUR IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS             
TO INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.             
WEST WINDS SHOULD DRY IT OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                          
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES WITH FRESH SNOW COVER.             
IN THE SHORT TERM...WEATHER NIL AS RUC/NGM/ETA/GFS PROGS SLIDE RIDE             
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO               
DECOUPLE. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE FRESH SNOW COVER               
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS DESPITE CURRENT DEW                 
POINTS IN THE TEENS.                                                            
IN THE FAR TERM...WEATHER NIL FOR MOST PART AS WEATHER SYSTEMS                  
REMAIN AND SOMEWHAT STARVED FOR DEEP MOISTURE. GFS TRIES TO                     
DEVELOP LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN                
FOR SUNDAY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE DRY AS SHOWN BY ETA AND                    
EVALUATION OF TIME CROSS SECTIONS.                                              
HAVE TEMPERED TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH             
SNOW COVER IN MIND. DESPITE GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AGREE WITH            
BUFKIT SOLUTIONS OF DECENT LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS NEAR THE SURFACE...             
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHEN WINDS DECOUPLE. WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN FORECAST...WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG/STRATUS            
FORMATION AS MELTING SNOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACT            
IN FUTURE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
955 AM CST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ENDING OF WINTER STORM                          
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL ALLOW WINTER STORM WARNING TO EXPIRE                   
ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT CONTINUES TO HUG SHORELINE.               
EFFECTS OF LAKE SNOW TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST. WEATHER SYSTEM NOW OVER             
LAKE ERIE AND RUC PROG SHOWS CONTINUED BUILDING OF HIGH OVER CWA WITH           
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
930 PM MST THU JAN 6 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...FOG IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH               
GREATEST REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.              
THIS MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH RUC 925-850 RELATIVE HUMIDITY JUST             
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THIS BLOB OF               
MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW. WILL UPDATE                    
FORECAST TO HIT FOG HARDER AND GO WIDESPREAD. RECENT CALL FROM                  
TRIBUNE AREA (GREELEY COUNTY) REVEALED 1/2 VISIBILITY.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST FOR CHEYENNE AND              
     KIT CARSON COUNTIES OF COLORADO.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
310 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT                                           
FLURRIES DIMINISHING QUICKLY WEST OF MBS AND FNT AS 850 TEMPERATURES            
CONTINUE TO WARM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 3K FT OVER             
LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING             
IN ZONE PACKAGE. LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING IN UNDER                     
INVERSION THOUGH AND FILLING IN THE FEW HOLES THAT DEVELOPED                    
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE 40KM RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT             
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TIMING THIS BACK EDGE THROUGH            
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL USE 925 MB 70 PERCENT              
RH LINE AS A GUIDE. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK              
STREAMING NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING...AS WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER                
KANSAS/MISSOURI MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE AC             
DECK WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME AFTER 15Z...SO WILL JUST WORD ZONES AS                
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS              
MORNING.                                                                        
ETA/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER               
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS FCST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW GOOD OMEGA FIELD WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A 6            
HOUR SHOT OF GOOD 1000-500 DPVA. MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEDGE OF                    
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER DTW AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -26C.             
WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER JET POSITION THOUGH...AS RIGHT REAR                    
QUADRANT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY. WILL ADJUST POPS TO 60 PERCENT FAR             
SOUTH WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...THEN CHANCE POPS TO PTK AND            
FNT...MBS SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET AS             
WAVE TRACKS EAST...VERY WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SFC NORTH OF               
FNT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 50               
MB.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
VERY COMPLICATED FLOW STRUCTURE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN                   
PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES             
WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE CURRENT              
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN                   
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  NUMERICAL SUITE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY DEPICTING            
THE FEATURES OFF THE WEST COAST.  THE GFS/WRFXX OFFER THE BEST                  
DEPICTION WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH                
COLUMBIA, WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT              
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  STILL                
DON'T HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF               
THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE SHORTWAVES THAT SHED EAST ACROSS THE                 
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET,                 
GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW.                
UNTIL THE 18Z CYCLE EVEN THE GFS WAS FAR TOO UNDERAMPLIFIED                     
THE BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  BAROCLINICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE             
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE            
WEAK.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL WASH NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING                 
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL             
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE REGION FOR               
MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ALL             
WEEK LONG.  HOWEVER, IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE EARLY JANUARY              
AS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S EARLY TO MID WEEK- BUT                  
PLENTY OF WET WEATHER TO GO ALONG WITH IT.  EVENTUALLY, HEIGHT FALLS            
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
CONUS TRANSLATING THE WESTERN US TROUGH EASTWARD- THUS RETURNING THE            
FORECAST AREA BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY WEEK'S END.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THURSDAY                                      
STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH               
TAF SITES ALREADY UNDER VFR CIGS. SOME CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN            
IS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE LAKE HAS               
ALSO APPEARED TO RAISE INVERSIONS A BIT. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY                 
RISEN TO AROUND 4K FT OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER... MVFR CIGS            
ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THEY ARE ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO LOWER OVER SW MI AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. AS THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT SOME             
OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH. SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR...              
APPARENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN                 
MICHIGAN LATE FRI MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL            
FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GSS/MANN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1155 PM EST THU JAN 6 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH               
TAF SITES ALREADY UNDER VFR CIGS. SOME CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN            
IS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE LAKE HAS               
ALSO APPEARED TO RAISE INVERSIONS A BIT. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY                 
RISEN TO AROUND 4K FT OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER... MVFR CIGS            
ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THEY ARE ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO LOWER OVER SW MI AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. AS THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT SOME             
OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH. SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR...              
APPARENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN                 
MICHIGAN LATE FRI MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL            
FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 936 PM.                                                     
SOME SURFACE RIDGING NUDGED INTO SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND                   
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR IN MANY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE... SURFACE HIGH             
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SETTLE INTO             
THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING BOUNDARY LAYER             
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY                
DAYBREAK. STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALREADY WORKING INTO LOWER                
MICHIGAN WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION... WHICH                
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW THE STRATUS ACROSS IL/IN/WESTERN LOWER MI TO             
EXPAND INTO SE MICHIGAN. THE 00Z KILX SOUNDING WAS A BIT COLDER IN              
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS. SUSPECT THIS              
COLDER AIRMASS WILL HELP KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS UP A BIT HIGHER OVER            
LAKE MICHIGAN THAN DEPICTED BY EITHER RUC OR ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS.               
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A FEW FLURRIES OFF THE LAKE.            
THE LATEST GRR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO WILL EXTEND SCATTERED                    
FLURRIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.                                                    
WITH THE BRIEF CLEARING EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING... TEMPERATURES                
ACROSS MOST OF SE MICHIGAN FELL TO THE CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS. THE             
TEMPS SHOULD LEVEL OFF SINCE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING BACK INTO THE            
REGION. SO WILL JUST LOWER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 405 PM)                                 
SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER STORM THIS MORNING IS NOW                
WELL OFF TO OUR EAST AT 29.60 INCHES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOW               
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH            
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW BACK ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.             
AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN               
CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE GENESEE AND SAGINAW VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT            
HAS NOW SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN TO M59. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE               
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF M59. THE TROUGH ACROSS              
THE SAGINAW VALLEY WILL GET WASHED OUT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW            
PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AND ANTICYLONIC FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE                   
APPROACHING FROM OUR SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. AS THIS                     
HAPPENS...PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE            
WORKS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE             
SOUTHWEST BY MORNING BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WAS               
CLOUD COVER AND ITS IMPACT ON MAX AND MIN TEMPS. ETA IS MUCH MORE               
PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH FRIDAY...SUGGESTING LOW CLOUDS             
TO REMAINED TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION. GFS...ON THE OTHER                         
HAND...BEGINS TO SCATTER CLOUDS OUT TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. THE                  
THINKING IS CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HOLES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY TO GO WITH PARTLY              
SUNNY...UNTIL THEN WE WILL STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS              
LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON THESE ANTICIPATIONS...WENT CLOSER TO THE               
MAV GUIDANCE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT             
LEAST COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND THE COMING WEEK. THERE IS A             
CAVIOT TO THIS UNFORTUNATELY. ETA...AND TO A DEGREE GFS HAS BECOME A            
BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RACES OUT OF THE             
MIDDLE OF THE CONUS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THIS SYSTEM RESULTS FROM             
THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A VORTICITY CENTER           
CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH NEVADA. A BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH             
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE            
FLOW REMAINS BASICALLY ZONAL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE. THAT            
SAID...12Z ETA OUTPUTS BETTER THAN A 1/4 INCH OF QPF LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. DON/T REALLY               
BUY THIS AMOUNT...BUT GFS ALSO PUTS SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO AREA DURING            
THIS TIMEFRAME (SUPPORTED BY CMC AND WRF AS WELL). WILL ADD A CHANCE            
OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA DUE TO THIS CONSISTENCY IN MODELS             
NEXT WEEK WILL BE A DIFFICULT CHORE IN THE COMING DAYS. THE UPPER               
PATTERN TRENDS FROM THE BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE BASE OF LARGE               
NORTH AMERICAN TROF...TO SHARP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF STRONGLY            
AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS TROF DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER             
THE SATURDAY WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH...ANOTHER RACES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY           
INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF -RA/-SN. THE ASSOCIATED                
FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN ON             
NORTH IN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.              
WILL READJUST THE PLACEMENT/TIMING OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DURING             
THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT OVERALL FEEL TO THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME              
WITH PERIODIC CHANCE -RA/-SN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                         
THEREAFTER...WE ENTER A PERIOD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT              
PRECIPITATION AS SUBTROPICAL/GULF MOISTURE SURGE NORTH/NORTHEAST ON             
THE LEADING EDGE OF DIGGING WESTERN TROF. GFS OUTPUTS QUITE A LOT OF            
RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PIN THIS TIME AS            
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN...AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT SHOWERS ETC.                      
BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE LAKES            
REGION. THIS TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ONE FASHION OR                  
ANOTHER BY A HOST OF MODELS. THE GENERAL SCENARIO BEING A STRONG                
ARCTIC STORM CROSSING FROM SIBERIA OVER ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM KICKS AN            
UPPER LOW THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CUTTING OFF NEAR THE PACIFIC                
NORTHWEST ATTM ON INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE ARCTIC                      
SYSTEM/AIRMASS THEN CHASING RAPIDLY IN BEHIND IT. GFS FOCUSES MUCH              
MORE ON THE NORTHERN SYSTEM & BASICALLY BRINGS THE ARCTIC FRONT                 
THROUGH "UNEVENTFUL"...ASIDE FROM THE STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE/RAIN            
BEFOREHAND. 12Z CMC AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                    
SHORTWAVE INTACT AND RIDE IT INTO THE AREA ALONG THE ARCTIC                     
FRONT...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT STORM TOWARD THE            
END OF THE FCST. NO CONFIDENCE IN EITHER SPECIFIC SOLUTION AT THIS              
STAGE IN THE GAME...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG OVERALL CONSENSUS ON THE               
UPPER PATTERN TRANSITION BY MODELS...AT LEAST FOR A DAY 6/7 FORECAST            
WILL TREND FORECAST MUCH COLDER AT THE TAIL END OF THE                          
FORECAST...AND TRANSITION RAIN CHANCE TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CHCS.               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GURNEY/SHULER/CONSIDINE                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
345 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK SURFACE LOW(1013MB) IN WRN GULF WILL TRACK NEWD AS IT LIFTS              
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST INLAND. LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS              
CENTRAL LA INTO SRN MS BETWEEN KHEZ AND KMCB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                
EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK BETWEN KMEI AND KCBM DURING THE EVENING                 
TAKING THE REMAINING RAINFALL E OF THE CWFA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO                
THE TX COAST SATURDAY EASING SEWD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY               
UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS.                 
NEXT WEEK...A POLAR VORTEX ROTATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD                   
HUDSON BAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NA                 
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ERN CONUS BY FRIDAY                     
BRINGING A CHANGE BACK TO WINTER COLD FOR THE REGION.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MAINLY N HALF OF MS WHERE                 
SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. GFS/RUC                
HANDLING THE INITIAL ZONE OF RAINFALL BEST AND LOOK FOR MORE                    
RAIN TO BREAK OUT OVER WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWFA BY LATE MORNING AS                   
GULF LOW MOVES ONSHORE. RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE CLOSE TO 1.5                 
INCHES. BEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY SHOULD                      
DEVELOP OVER SERN MS. EVEN SO...7-5H LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C WITH                    
SHOWALTERS 0 TO -1 BY EVENING AS BEST UVV CROSSES NWRN HALF OF                  
FA WHERE TOTALS REACH A MORE IMPRESSIVE 51. INCREASING UPPER                    
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PERSIST FROM 18Z-06Z BEFORE SYSTEM PULLS E                    
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS NEVER DO GET VERY IMPRESSIVE.                
ALL IN ALL...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINS AND LOCALLY 2 INCHES              
BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.                                        
DRYING OUT PROCESS AND CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING WILL SET UP A                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT N WINDS. LOOK FOR A RETURN               
TO SLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING                   
BACK INTO THE REGION AS WARMING TREND A GOOD BET GOING INTO THE                 
MEDIUM RANGE.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MILDER AIRMASS THAT STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FREQUENTLY TOPPING 70F ONCE AGAIN                
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH A POTENTIAL OF             
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE            
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE POLAR VORTEX MOVING S            
IN CANADA JERKS A PIECE OF SIBERIAN AIR INTO NA. THIS AIRMASS DIVES             
TOWARD THE NRN CONUS NEXT FRIDAY SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER COLD                 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       58  51  58  46 / 100 100  20  10                                  
MERIDIAN      62  52  64  44 /  90 100  30  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/40                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
945 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING NORTH THROUGH INTERIOR SECTIONS            
AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WEAK WAA...ALSO BAND OF            
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. LINGERING MORNING FOG               
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH              
MIDDAY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS WELL AND SOME CIRRUS WILL              
STREAM OVERHEAD...WITH SKIES AVERAGING OUT PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS             
WILL AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE EARLY JAN NORMS...REACHING AOA 80 MOST EC FL             
LOCATIONS. ONLY MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS THIS MORNING...TEXT ZONES STILL            
ON TRACK...HANDLING LIGHT RAIN/FOG IN SHORT TERM FORECASTS.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LATEST RUC/MSAS SURFACE ANALYZES PLACE RIDGE AXIS OVER                
NORTH PART OF OUR CWA RESULTING IN LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST            
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING SOUTHWEST                 
WINDS AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AND 3 FOOT SEAS WITH AN 11 SECOND PERIOD.                 
RADAR WAS DETECTING SHOWERS ALONG THE EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM WHICH             
MATCHES THE MARINE GRIDS WEATHER VERY NICELY. WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF            
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THE PAST 24 HOURS SO WILL VEER WINDS TO MORE             
OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. WIND SPEEDS AND              
SEAS LOOK GOOD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GLITTO                                                             
LONG TERM...WIMMER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1057 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST               
U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH              
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.                   
EMBEDDED IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS A WEAK LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.             
270K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT                 
PRODUCING LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT            
STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH               
DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.                    
A SMALL PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE CLOUD COVER. THE ANOTHER PART            
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND              
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SECTION             
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL STAY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN                  
ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE               
AIR MASS WILL BE MOST STABLE OVER THE THE IRON MOUNTAIN/IRON RIVER              
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE-900MB RH WILL BE AROUND 90 PERCENT.               
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF TH SOUTHWEST...SO DO NOT THINK ANY                     
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP. ELSEWHERE THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY              
TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT SNOW. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER STILL                 
POSSIBLE. THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE WORDING IN THE                     
DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FORECAST WILL NEED TWEAKING.                
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1051 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO BLANKET ENTIRE AREA WITH A MENTION OF SCATTERED                
FLURRIES. NEARLY ALL OBS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN REPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES B/W 1 AND 3 MILES. NO REPORTS AS OF YET OF               
ANY FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BAD AXE              
WHERE A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THERE THIS MORNING.                    
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BIT OF A VORT MAX THROUGH                          
THIS AREA WITH A SLIGHT BEND IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ON THE                     
NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF SURFACE HIGH NOW MOVING THROUGH OHIO. MOISTURE            
IS VERY SHALLOW (DTX RADAR OVERSHOOTING ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY)...SO              
DON'T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO               
DECIDED TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOWER                 
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME HOLDING ON AS MID CLOUDS REMAIN                  
ABOVE...SO EVEN AS LOW CLOUDS DO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT...THERE WILL BE             
ENOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. TEMPS LOOK              
GOOD...NO CHANGES THERE.                                                        
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AT 310 AM EST.                                             
FLURRIES DIMINISHING QUICKLY WEST OF MBS AND FNT AS 850 TEMPERATURES            
CONTINUE TO WARM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 3K FT OVER             
LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING             
IN ZONE PACKAGE. LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING IN UNDER                     
INVERSION THOUGH AND FILLING IN THE FEW HOLES THAT DEVELOPED                    
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE 40KM RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT             
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TIMING THIS BACK EDGE THROUGH            
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL USE 925 MB 70 PERCENT              
RH LINE AS A GUIDE. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK              
STREAMING NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING...AS WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER                
KANSAS/MISSOURI MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE AC             
DECK WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME AFTER 15Z...SO WILL JUST WORD ZONES AS                
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS              
MORNING.                                                                        
ETA/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER               
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS FCST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW GOOD OMEGA FIELD WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A 6            
HOUR SHOT OF GOOD 1000-500 DPVA. MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEDGE OF                    
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER DTW AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -26C.             
WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER JET POSITION THOUGH...AS RIGHT REAR                    
QUADRANT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY. WILL ADJUST POPS TO 60 PERCENT FAR             
SOUTH WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...THEN CHANCE POPS TO PTK AND            
FNT...MBS SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET AS             
WAVE TRACKS EAST...VERY WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SFC NORTH OF               
FNT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 50               
MB.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
VERY COMPLICATED FLOW STRUCTURE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN                   
PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES             
WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE CURRENT              
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN                   
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  NUMERICAL SUITE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY DEPICTING            
THE FEATURES OFF THE WEST COAST.  THE GFS/WRFXX OFFER THE BEST                  
DEPICTION WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH                
COLUMBIA, WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT              
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  STILL                
DON'T HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF               
THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE SHORTWAVES THAT SHED EAST ACROSS THE                 
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET,                 
GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW.                
UNTIL THE 18Z CYCLE EVEN THE GFS WAS FAR TOO UNDERAMPLIFIED                     
THE BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  BAROCLINICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE             
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE            
WEAK.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL WASH NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING                 
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL             
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE REGION FOR               
MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ALL             
WEEK LONG.  HOWEVER, IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE EARLY JANUARY              
AS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S EARLY TO MID WEEK- BUT                  
PLENTY OF WET WEATHER TO GO ALONG WITH IT.  EVENTUALLY, HEIGHT FALLS            
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
CONUS TRANSLATING THE WESTERN US TROUGH EASTWARD- THUS RETURNING THE            
FORECAST AREA BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY WEEK'S END.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THURSDAY                                      
STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH               
TAF SITES ALREADY UNDER VFR CIGS. SOME CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN            
IS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE LAKE HAS               
ALSO APPEARED TO RAISE INVERSIONS A BIT. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY                 
RISEN TO AROUND 4K FT OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER... MVFR CIGS            
ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THEY ARE ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO LOWER OVER SW MI AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. AS THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT SOME             
OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH. SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR...              
APPARENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN                 
MICHIGAN LATE FRI MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL            
FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GSS/MANN/SHULER                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1050 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THAT THE MESOETA AND RUC HAVE THE CORRECT                  
SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE SHRA EAST OF THE MTNS LATE THIS                        
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. WILL TRIM BACK POPS TO REFLECT THAT THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA THIS                            
AFTERNOON...HOLD OFF EAST OF THE MTNS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
A LOW CHC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE CURRENT FORECAST            
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE DELAYED ONSET OF THE                        
PRECIPITATION. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTORS FOR TEMPS IS THE BKN TO OVC            
SKY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME. WILL REWORK T/DPTS                
BASED ON THE LATEST OBS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN MIXING HEIGHTS AND PRECIP TIMING             
IN THE FIRST PERIOD I HAVE UPDATED THE FWF AND FIRE WX GRIDS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 218 AM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH             
DEWPOINTS FALLING BEHIND THE FEATURE. SOME THINNING OF THE GENERAL              
OVERCAST INTERACTING WITH WET GROUND AND HIGH RH TO PRODUCE FOG. FOR            
NOW...WILL MENTION JUST PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT WATCH CLOSELY FOR                  
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WINDS MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH...                  
HOWEVER...TO PRECLUDE SUCH MEASURES.                                            
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING UPGLIDE OVER THE             
OLD FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE WEST...AND ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST             
AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS CONVECTION               
BREAKING OUT IN STRONGEST UPGLIDE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.               
BEST LIFT...AND MOISTURE...ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TIL EVENING...              
COINCIDENT WITH PASSAGE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD STAY WELL               
NORTH OF OUR REGION. WILL PLAN ON CHANCE POPS WEST THIS MORNING...              
SPREADING TOWARD INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR THROUGH AFTERNOON...WITH                
LIKELIES WEST. RAINFALL SHOULD GET HEAVIEST THIS EVENING...AS CWFA              
GETS BRIEFLY INTO RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET...AND AGAIN                
ACROSS TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS. CATEGORICAL MOUNTAINS TO                         
LIKELY POPS FOOTHILLS AND PART OF THE PIEDMONT. HELD ON TO HIGH                 
CHANCE SOUTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                               
WAVE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPGLIDE REGIME AND PASS OVER THE                
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY SATURDAY...SHOULD DRAG A SECONDARY                   
BOUNDARY OVER OUR REGION...PULLING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH                 
THROUGH THE SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. CLEARING EXPECTED FROM THE WEST            
DURING AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND RE-                        
AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST POINTING TO PLEASANT            
AND WARM END OF THE WEEKEND.                                                    
TEMPERATURES TRICKY TODAY; THICKNESSES CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER ON               
THIS RUN THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS AND LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER MAY NOT               
BE THIN ENOUGH FOR MUCH HEATING. TRENDED TEMPERATURES 50S TO LOWER              
60S WEST...BUT MAINTAINED MID 60S EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHERE                      
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE WEAKEST AND LATEST TO OCCUR. 60S IN                  
GENERAL FOR SATURDAY...WITH 60S NORTHWEST TO SOME LOWER 70S FOR                 
SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS 30S AND 40S...WITH SOME 50S SOUTH TONITE DUE             
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS.                                                   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOLIDLY IN A WARM SECTOR AIRMASS MONDAY                   
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL               
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM THE             
WEST WED INTO THU AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF INCREASES DEEP              
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO CHANGES IN THE            
TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS             
FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOTS OF CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.            
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVELS             
REMAIN DRY. SFC FNT SLOW TO MOVE THRU THE AREA AS EVIDENCED BY                  
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT AND DEW POINT DROP OFF. WITH THE WET            
GROUND AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...FOG STILL A POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH             
THE LOW LEVEL DRYING. HAVE MVFR TEMPO AROUND SUNRISE AT ALL                     
SITES...EXCEPT PREVAILING MVFR AND TEMPO IFR AT THE MORE FOG PRONE              
KAND.                                                                           
ATMOS MOISTENS THRU A DEEP COLUMN ABOUT 00Z AS NEXT WAVE OF LOW                 
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. ETA SLOWER THAN GFS WITH PRECIP                 
ENTERING THE AREA. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES ONLY ADDED A VCSH AT KAND              
AND NOTHING ELSEWHERE. IF PRECIP SETS IN SOONER...MVFR AND POSSIBLY             
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEFORE 06Z. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS SEE IF            
A TREND DEVELOPS BEFORE ADDING RESTRICTIONS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM / FIRE WEATHER (UPDATE)...NED                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASICALLY...BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MINOR               
CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL BE THE MAIN FCST ISSUE.                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FOR THE MOST PART WSW FLOW            
OVER THE CONUS BETWEEN TROF ALONG THE W COAST AND STRONG RIDGE JUST             
OFF THE SE COAST. THERE ARE SEVERAL NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW              
THOUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING E OF NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER WAS OVER            
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A THIRD WAS MOVING THRU CA INTO NV. AT THE                 
SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND            
ONE IN CANADA EXTENDS THRU MN AND FAR NWRN IA. SOME FLURRIES/-SN                
HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH SHOWING              
UP ON RADARS. CLOSER TO HOME...LONG AXIS LIGHT LES WAS OCCURRING                
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IN SW FLOW...SOME OF WHICH WAS BRUSHING THE              
KEWEENAW N OF HOUGHTON. OTHERWISE...CLR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL             
OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTN.                                                        
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL PASS WELL S OF HERE TONIGHT AND WILL             
NOT BE A FACTOR FOR UPPER MI. SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO UPPER               
MI DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE STALLING OUT UNDER WSW FLOW ALOFT.                   
UPSTREAM 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT KINL SHOWED TYPICAL ARCTIC AIRMASS            
WITH SFC BASED INVERSION EXTENDING UP TO AROUND 875MB WHERE TEMP WAS            
-6C. BLO AT 900MB...TEMP WAS -14C (PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SHALLOW               
CONVECTION OVER THE LAKE). COLUMN WAS NEARLY SATURATED UP TO 900MB              
BEFORE DWPT DEPRESSIONS INCREASED TO 9C AT 850MB. 12Z ETA SOUNDING              
FOR KINL LOOKED WELL INITIALIZED AND DOWNSTREAM FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK             
REASONABLE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI. SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE             
INTO NW FCST AREA LATE THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING LONG AXIS LES              
OVER WRN LAKE FIRMLY ONSHORE. DESPITE LONG AXIS FETCH...LES WILL                
REMAIN LIGHT DUE TO INVERSION REMAINING AROUND 3KFT AND RATHER                  
PRONOUNCED DRIER AIR ABOVE INVERSION. NONETHELESS...MAY SEE AN INCH             
OR TWO SIMPLY DUE TO LONG FETCH AVBL. FRONT SLOWS DOWN OVERNIGHT AND            
MAY NOT EVER SLIP ONSHORE OVER THE ERN FCST AREA AS LAND BREEZE                 
STRENGTHENS PER WSETA AND RUC13. WILL HOLD OFF ON BRINGING ANY LES              
ONSHORE THERE.                                                                  
STALLED OUT FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI WILL BEGIN TO                 
SHIFT BACK N LATER SAT. WILL CONFINE -SHSN/FLURRIES TO THE KEWEENAW             
AND RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN THE MORNING. IT MAY              
BE LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE FLURRIES END ON THE KEWEENAW AS WINDS                 
BECOME LIGHT SE. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE JAN DAY WITH TEMPS RISING              
INTO THE 20S AND A WEAK PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN LITTLE WIND FOR              
MUCH OF THE DAY.                                                                
A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT AFTN/EVENING...            
BUT BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT (290K SFC) AND LOWERING OF CONDENSATION PRES           
DEFICITS OCCUR JUST NW AND N OF UPPER MI...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PCPN            
SAT NIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAK LIFT OVER SHALLOW MOIST LAYER COULD RESULT            
IN SOME SPOTTY FZDZ OR FLURRIES WITH TEMP IN THE MOIST LAYER AROUND             
-10C. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT'S A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT IN              
THE THIRD PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE HEADS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND             
INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SUN. GFS LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH SFC                     
REFLECTION WHILE ETA TOO FAST AND PERHAPS A BIT TOO WEAK.                       
UKMET/CANADIAN ARE VERY SIMILAR AND OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE. IN                 
ADDITION...THEY ARE ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF RUN. WILL BRING             
IN A CHC OF -SN SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE. PCPN TYPE                 
SHOULD ONLY BE SNOW BASED ON 850MB TEMPS/1000-850MB THICKNESS...                
THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE ACROSS FAR SRN/SE SECTIONS. EXPECT SOME LES             
TO DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MON BEHIND SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO AROUND -13C.                                                                 
TUE-FRI...STABLE PATTERN OF RECENT OVER NAMERICA BEGINS TO                      
TRANSITION DURING THIS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT TROF ALONG W COAST                  
BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. TROF AXIS SHOULD BE OVER CNTRL NAMERICA BY                 
MID/LATE WEEK. CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL AGREE ON THE LARGE SCALE            
PROGRESSION WITH DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF SHORTWAVES. ON TUE              
WRN TROF WILL SHIFT E TO THE ROCKIES WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW/WAA             
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. PCPN SHOULD BREAK OUT                
ACROSS THE WRN LAKES...BUT UKMET DOES OFFER STRONGER HIGH PRES                  
RIDGING FROM QUEBEC/ONTARIO WWD...RESULTING IN A BETTER FEED OF ERLY            
LOW-LEVEL COLD/DRY AIR INTO UPPER MI WHICH WOULD DELAY ONSET TO AT              
LEAST TUE NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FCST OF LOW CHC POP              
OF -SN TUE AFTN UNTIL DRIER TREND BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. MOVING INTO             
WED...NRN/SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTION/TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE              
THAT WON'T BE CLEARED UP FOR A FEW DAYS. 00Z/06Z GFS ARE THE                    
OUTLIERS BEING TOO QUICK MOVING ENTIRE TROF AND SFC FRONT EWD...BUT             
06Z GFS IS HINTING AT A STRONGER SFC WAVE MOVING ALONG FRONT INTO               
GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM ENERGY...SUGGESTING            
A POSSIBLE TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED                  
SLOWER...BUT IS STILL ON THE FAST SIDE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. 12Z/06JAN            
ECMWF HAD A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SFC LOW MOVING W OF UPPER MI TO               
HUDSON BAY. 00Z ECMWF BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH SOME...BUT JUST ARRIVED            
12Z EC IS BACK ONTO THE PREVIOUS STRONG LOW MOVING JUST W OF UPPER              
MI WED EVENING. CANADIAN/UKMET ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH A SFC LOW                  
MOVING OVER OR JUST W OF UPPER MI LATE WED. WILL THUS FAVOR AN                  
ECWMF/CANADIAN/UKMET TYPE SOLUTION FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. REMAINS              
TO BE SEEN IF SUFFICIENT NRN/SRN STREAM INTERACTION WILL OCCUR TO               
GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AS EC IS ADVERTISING. STRONG WAA            
TUE NIGHT INTO WED WILL LIKELY CHANGE PCPN TYPE TO A MIX AND                    
POSSIBLY TO JUST RAIN GIVEN RECENT CONSISTENCY OF ECMWF AND EVEN GFS            
ON DEGREE OF WARMING IN ADDITION TO WARM CANADIAN/UKMET LOOK. WILL              
TRANSITION PCPN TYPE TO RAIN/SNOW ACROSS ALL OF FCST AREA TUE                   
NIGHT/WED AND TO JUST RAIN OVER SE SECTIONS. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER               
SOME FZRA IN LATER FCSTS AS WELL. STRONG CAA AND ARCTIC AIR WILL                
FLOOD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND SYSTEM THU/FRI WITH EXTENSIVE LES             
DEVELOPING IN GENERAL NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS 850MB            
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID -20S CELCIUS WITH OP ECMWF RUN SHOWING A             
SIMILAR SOLUTION BASED ON NEW 12Z RUN. THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST                
AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...AND TEMPS BY FRI WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO                
REACH 0F OVER INTERIOR SW SECTIONS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
330 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL EAST THIS                 
AFTERNOON TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  WEAK TROUGH/COLD FRONT                
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWEST ACROSS MN/EASTERN SD/                  
EASTERN NE HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN             
PLAINS STARTING TO TURN NORTHEAST...WITH WV IMAGERY INDICATING A                
WEAKER WAVE OVER SD/NE GETTING SHEARED OUT.  GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD                 
COVER REMAINS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME               
SHALLOW LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.  MAIN            
CONCERN TONIGHT DEALS WITH CLOUD COVER AND LINGER LAKE EFFECT...WITH            
ONE EYE ON SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE               
OHIO VALLEY...AND THE OTHER ON UPSTREAM SURFACE TROUGH.                         
REGARDING SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST...BEST MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FORCING PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI...JUST GRAZING FAR SOUTHEAST              
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.  MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES OUT OF IT OVERNIGHT           
AROUND SAGINAW BAY THOUGH LAYERS BETWEEN PERSISTENT SC DECK AND                 
700MB ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY.                                                     
REGARDING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT/TROUGH...BAND OF FORCING/MOISTURE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH...WITH SOME LIGHT                 
SNOW/FLURRIES NORTH OF THE MN BORDER.  EARLIER POST-TROUGH PRECIP               
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS HAS FALLEN APART...WHICH MATCHES GUIDANCE TRENDS             
OF KEEPING BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AS                
FRONT WEAKENS.  SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE                  
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT.                                                 
AND AS FAR AS LINGERING LES GOES...FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST OFF LAKE              
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY VEERING WEST/WEST-SOUTHWEST                   
OVERNIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PUSH INVERSION HEIGHTS DOWN BELOW                
900MB (AND WARMER THAN -10C).  SO WOULDN'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN                
FLURRIES BEYOND THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH RUC/ETA BOTH SUGGEST                    
DEVELOPMENT OF A NICE CONVERGENCE BAND ALONG THE NORTHWEST LOWER                
LAKESHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOMETHING A BIT              
MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN FLURRIES.                                                 
JPB                                                                             
SATURDAY...500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA              
EARLY, WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE             
FORECAST DRY.  AT THE MOST, EXPECT SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE SE PART            
OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GUT FEELING IS NOTHING HAPPENS IN THE                 
MORNING AFTER THE 500 MB WAVE PASSES US.                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING...SW FLOW INCREASE IN THE                  
EVENING, THEN AFTER 06Z, AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE NORTH END             
OF THE LAKE AND WITH THE TEMPERATURES FROM 850 MB AND BELOW STILL IN            
BELOW FREEZING, EXPECT THAT SW FLOW LES LOOKS LIKE A POSSIBILITY.               
THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  AROUND NOON, THE  850 MB AND               
925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH TO DECREASE THE OVER LAKE                       
INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER, WITH THE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, BUT               
BELOW -10C, AND TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AROUND FREEZING IN THE EARLY            
AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY EVENING. SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY DZ OR                 
FZDZ.                                                                           
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT...850 TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF AFTER 06Z AS              
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE NW FLOW, THE DELTA            
TS INCREASING TO AROUND 13C BY 12Z, AND THE TEMPERATURES IN THE                 
LOWER LEVELS ALL BELOW FREEZING, WILL CHANGE THE MIX TO A CHANCE OF             
SNOW, BUT LEAVE THE POPS AT 30% DUE TO THE VARIABILITY THAT THE                 
MODELS ARE SHOWING, THOUGH LAKE EFFECT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROBABLE             
OUTCOME AS OF NOW.                                                              
EXTENDED(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...ENSEMBLE TODAY LOOKED PRETTY GOOD             
WITH NOGAPS, GEM AND GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 7              
DAY PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE OBSERVED 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE PAST                
MONTH IN A HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM, THE LONG WAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO BE                   
RETROGRADING BACK TO THE WEST A BIT, SO THE ENSEMBLE/ECMWF FORECAST             
LOOKS THE BEST. THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST OF THE GFS, IS ON THE QUICK            
SIDE OF THINGS. SO THE FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE THIS...MONDAY, MAIN              
SFC LOW IS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS MOVING FROM               
THE NORTH. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING AROUND -5C BY 12Z IN THE                
MORNING DOWN TO M-55 SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.                  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE HIGH BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY AND                 
MOVES ON TO THE EAST ALMOST AS FAST. THIS LEADS TO RETURN FLOW ON               
TUESDAY MORNING. SO DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF TUESDAY.               
TUESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN N LOWER AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES             
TOWARD THE AREA. WEDNESDAY, RAIN FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA AS THE             
WARM FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE MORNING. THURSDAY, THE COLD FRONT                
GOES THROUGH PRIOR TO 12Z SO FOR THE DAY THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SNOW            
AND RAIN IN THE MORNING AND THEN ALL SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE               
COLD AIR MOVES IN. FRIDAY, HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, SO             
FIGURING ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF DAY 7             
WILL LEAVE IT OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA UNTIL WE ARE SURE OF THE             
FLOW REGIME.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
111 PM EST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY. GFS ONCE AGAIN SCATTERS OUT LOW            
CLOUDS AND ETA HANGS ON TO THEM. SIDING WITH ETA ON THIS ONE. FAIRLY            
THICK LAYER OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN ABOVE                     
STRATOCUMULUS DECK...PREVENTING THEM FROM SCATTERING OUT. CURRENT               
OBS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR              
FORECAST REGION. AS HIGH MOVES EAST...WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH                
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW THIS MORE EXPANSIVE DECK OF MVFR TO SLIDE             
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO             
SCATTER OUT THIS EARLY EVENING. LOW CLOUDS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS             
NEXT SYSTEM BRUSHES BY TO OUR SOUTH. DTW AND DET LIKELY TO SEE A                
BOUT OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...ON THE ORDER OF AROUND AN INCH OF               
ACCUMULATING SNOW. A PERIOD OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SNOW              
SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. SNOW WILL BE BRIEF AND OUT OF               
HERE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.                                                    
$$                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST.                                                
UPDATED ZONES TO BLANKET ENTIRE AREA WITH A MENTION OF SCATTERED                
FLURRIES. NEARLY ALL OBS OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN REPORTING LIGHT                
SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES B/W 1 AND 3 MILES. NO REPORTS AS OF YET OF               
ANY FLURRIES OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BAD AXE              
WHERE A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THERE THIS MORNING.                    
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BIT OF A VORT MAX THROUGH                          
THIS AREA WITH A SLIGHT BEND IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE ON THE                     
NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF SURFACE HIGH NOW MOVING THROUGH OHIO. MOISTURE            
IS VERY SHALLOW (DTX RADAR OVERSHOOTING ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY)...SO              
DON'T ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO               
DECIDED TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOWER                 
CLOUDS WILL HAVE A BETTER TIME HOLDING ON AS MID CLOUDS REMAIN                  
ABOVE...SO EVEN AS LOW CLOUDS DO SLOWLY SCATTER OUT...THERE WILL BE             
ENOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. TEMPS LOOK              
GOOD...NO CHANGES THERE.                                                        
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AT 310 AM EST.                                             
FLURRIES DIMINISHING QUICKLY WEST OF MBS AND FNT AS 850 TEMPERATURES            
CONTINUE TO WARM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL TO LESS THAN 3K FT OVER             
LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING             
IN ZONE PACKAGE. LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SNEAKING IN UNDER                     
INVERSION THOUGH AND FILLING IN THE FEW HOLES THAT DEVELOPED                    
OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE 40KM RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SOUTHERN EXTENT             
OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND TIMING THIS BACK EDGE THROUGH            
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL USE 925 MB 70 PERCENT              
RH LINE AS A GUIDE. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK              
STREAMING NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING...AS WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER                
KANSAS/MISSOURI MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THE AC             
DECK WILL ARRIVE SOMETIME AFTER 15Z...SO WILL JUST WORD ZONES AS                
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS              
MORNING.                                                                        
ETA/GFS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER               
SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS FCST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES             
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW GOOD OMEGA FIELD WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A 6            
HOUR SHOT OF GOOD 1000-500 DPVA. MODELS EVEN SHOW A WEDGE OF                    
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY OVER DTW AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO -26C.             
WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER JET POSITION THOUGH...AS RIGHT REAR                    
QUADRANT DROPS INTO OHIO VALLEY. WILL ADJUST POPS TO 60 PERCENT FAR             
SOUTH WITH AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION...THEN CHANCE POPS TO PTK AND            
FNT...MBS SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN A DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 5K AND 10K FEET AS             
WAVE TRACKS EAST...VERY WEAK ADIABATIC OMEGA ON 295K SFC NORTH OF               
FNT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RUNNING BETWEEN 30 AND 50               
MB.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
VERY COMPLICATED FLOW STRUCTURE HAS SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN                   
PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES             
WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE EASTERN CONUS AS THE CURRENT              
SPLIT FLOW CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN                   
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  NUMERICAL SUITE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY DEPICTING            
THE FEATURES OFF THE WEST COAST.  THE GFS/WRFXX OFFER THE BEST                  
DEPICTION WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH                
COLUMBIA, WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT              
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.  STILL                
DON'T HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF               
THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE SHORTWAVES THAT SHED EAST ACROSS THE                 
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET,                 
GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTIONS TAKING PLACE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW.                
UNTIL THE 18Z CYCLE EVEN THE GFS WAS FAR TOO UNDERAMPLIFIED                     
THE BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN                
CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  BAROCLINICITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE             
QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE            
WEAK.  THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL WASH NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST                
AREA ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD IN ADVANCE OF AN EJECTING                 
SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY.  THE LOW LEVEL             
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE REGION FOR               
MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED ALL             
WEEK LONG.  HOWEVER, IT CERTAINLY WILL NOT FEEL LIKE EARLY JANUARY              
AS HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S EARLY TO MID WEEK- BUT                  
PLENTY OF WET WEATHER TO GO ALONG WITH IT.  EVENTUALLY, HEIGHT FALLS            
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
CONUS TRANSLATING THE WESTERN US TROUGH EASTWARD- THUS RETURNING THE            
FORECAST AREA BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY WEEK'S END.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THURSDAY                                      
STRATUS DECK IS SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... WITH               
TAF SITES ALREADY UNDER VFR CIGS. SOME CONVERGENCE OFF LAKE MICHIGAN            
IS PRODUCING SOME FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. THE LAKE HAS               
ALSO APPEARED TO RAISE INVERSIONS A BIT. CEILINGS HAVE ACTUALLY                 
RISEN TO AROUND 4K FT OVER MOST OF SE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER... MVFR CIGS            
ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS INDIANA AND ILLINOIS. THEY ARE ALSO                 
BEGINNING TO LOWER OVER SW MI AS INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL. AS THE                 
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT... EXPECT SOME             
OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH. SOME DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR...              
APPARENT OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHERN                 
MICHIGAN LATE FRI MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL            
FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSIONS SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BY                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GSS/MANN/SHULER                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1030 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATING FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. FORECAST ON TRACK WITH             
INCREAING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS                  
SLIGHTLY SRN ZONES. CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL KEEP                  
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL BEFORE WARM FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NWD.               
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK SURFACE LOW(1013MB) IN WRN GULF WILL TRACK NEWD AS IT LIFTS              
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE COAST INLAND. LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS              
CENTRAL LA INTO SRN MS BETWEEN KHEZ AND KMCB BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                
EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK BETWEN KMEI AND KCBM DURING THE EVENING                 
TAKING THE REMAINING RAINFALL E OF THE CWFA SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO                
THE TX COAST SATURDAY EASING SEWD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY               
UNDER NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS.                 
NEXT WEEK...A POLAR VORTEX ROTATES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD                   
HUDSON BAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER CENTRAL NA                 
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ERN CONUS BY FRIDAY                     
BRINGING A CHANGE BACK TO WINTER COLD FOR THE REGION.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MAINLY N HALF OF MS WHERE                 
SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. GFS/RUC                
HANDLING THE INITIAL ZONE OF RAINFALL BEST AND LOOK FOR MORE                    
RAIN TO BREAK OUT OVER WRN 2/3 OF OUR CWFA BY LATE MORNING AS                   
GULF LOW MOVES ONSHORE. RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING THIS                    
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECENT DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE CLOSE TO 1.5                 
INCHES. BEST WARMING THIS AFTERNOON AND INSTABILITY SHOULD                      
DEVELOP OVER SERN MS. EVEN SO...7-5H LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C WITH                    
SHOWALTERS 0 TO -1 BY EVENING AS BEST UVV CROSSES NWRN HALF OF                  
FA WHERE TOTALS REACH A MORE IMPRESSIVE 51. INCREASING UPPER                    
DIVERGENCE SHOULD PERSIST FROM 18Z-06Z BEFORE SYSTEM PULLS E                    
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS NEVER DO GET VERY IMPRESSIVE.                
ALL IN ALL...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD 1 INCH RAINS AND LOCALLY 2 INCHES              
BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.                                        
DRYING OUT PROCESS AND CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING WILL SET UP A                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT N WINDS. LOOK FOR A RETURN               
TO SLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WITH MORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING                   
BACK INTO THE REGION AS WARMING TREND A GOOD BET GOING INTO THE                 
MEDIUM RANGE.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MILDER AIRMASS THAT STARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE             
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS FREQUENTLY TOPPING 70F ONCE AGAIN                
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH A POTENTIAL OF             
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE            
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THE POLAR VORTEX MOVING S            
IN CANADA JERKS A PIECE OF SIBERIAN AIR INTO NA. THIS AIRMASS DIVES             
TOWARD THE NRN CONUS NEXT FRIDAY SETTING US UP FOR ANOTHER COLD                 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  /#40/                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TRAINING PRECIPITATION AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF               
THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS LOW              
PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST MOVES NORTHEAST.  THIS AREA OF              
LOW PRESSURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WILL            
PULL A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  ISENTROPIC FIELDS            
SUGGEST THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST              
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                            
CEILINGS --  ALL OF THE STRATUS/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP                 
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR OR IFR TERRITORY THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY.                
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PUBLIC FORECASTER...I'LL START                
LIFTING CEILING RESTRICTIONS AROUND GLH AND GWO TOWARD THE END OF               
THE TAF PERIOD.                                                                 
VISIBILITIES AND ANY RESTRICTIONS -- I PLAN ON MAKING MANY CHANGES              
FROM THE ONGOING TAFS HERE...WITH MOST VISIBILITIES IN IFR TO MAYBE             
MVFR TERRITORY.  THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED TS AROUND HBG BY                  
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES...I               
WON'T MENTION THIS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.  SO IN GENERAL...LOOK               
FOR RESTRICTIONS TO BE EITHER RA/SHRA...WITH A SPLASH AND DASH OF BR.           
WINDS -- NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO              
10 KNOTS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT OCCUR            
AT GLH/GWO (BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH).  BY 1200 UTC                  
SATURDAY...WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AS THE FRONT              
SHIFTS EAST.  /BUTTS/                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       58  51  58  46 / 100 100  20  10                                  
MERIDIAN      62  52  64  44 /  90 100  30  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO JAN/03                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
340 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CORRECTED TO ADD EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS BLOSSOMED FROM BUTLER TO CLINTON TO SEDALIA            
TO BOONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ON THE                   
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND IS ABOUT AS SHARP AS I'VE EVER SEEN.             
AT THIS HOUR IT IS SNOWING HEAVILY JUST SOUTH OF WARRENSBURG.                   
MOTORISTS DRIVING SOUTH OF WARRENSBURG WILL ENCOUNTER A WALL OF SNOW            
JUST SOUTH OF TOWN. CALLS TO OBSERVERS IN THE SNOW BAND REPORT RATES            
OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE BAND IS MOVING RAPIDLY, BUT I AM CONCERNED             
THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORTICITY MAX IS STILL OVER THE WICHITA AREA.            
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 2 OR 3 HOURS OF LIFT FOR THE COMMUNITIES                 
MENTIONED ABOVE. INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW COLD CLOUD TOPS               
ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SO I WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME                    
REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW BAND THROUGH                  
SUNSET.                                                                         
FORECASTING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS              
WEEKEND. LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED ALONG THE 925MB TROUGH AXIS RUNNING             
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE            
MODELS DAMPEN THE TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE              
FORECAST DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO             
THE REGION. THE ETA MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE ON THE GROUND. I'VE                   
LIMITED FOG TO EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT                    
THINKING THAT STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI             
MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                                              
FOG AND STRATUS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. IF            
STRATUS DOES NOT BREAK UP TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER THE TOP OF A                 
MORNING INVERSION MAY LOCK STRATUS IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.            
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE GET TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES COULD              
SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER 40S OR REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. I'VE CUT THE               
DIFFERENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.                        
THE SAME ARGUMENTS FOR FOG, STRATUS, AND SNOW/ICE COVER WILL COME               
INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY. STRONGER MIXING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO              
THE 50S AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT STRATUS CAN BE STUBBORN THIS              
TIME OF YEAR.                                                                   
KOCH                                                                            
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MILD AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAW WARM AIR AND GULF MOISTURE                     
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROUGH. PRECIPITATION              
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES                  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY INTERACT WITH WEAK IMPULSES                   
EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT              
BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR                   
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                      
INCREASES. MAY SEE SOME RECURRING FLOODING PROBLEMS ON AREA                     
WATERWAYS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN LASTING INTO MID-WEEK. THE              
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL                        
STATES...PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE            
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE QUANDARY REMAINS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE               
ARCTIC AIR WILL EXTEND. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON            
WEDNESDAY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE                     
REMAINING FORECAST AREA...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW TOWARD THE TAIL END             
OF THE EVENT INTO THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL DATA              
TO SORT OUT WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR NEXT WEEK.                            
STOFLET                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
1205 PM...                                                                      
A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA IS TRACKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE               
AND PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND                     
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE RUC, GFS, AND ETA                       
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL AT 12Z, AND THE VORTICITY MAX WILL                
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO BUTLER,               
CLINTON, AND SEDALIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE            
SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY MID             
LAYER, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED QUICKLY NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS              
THIS AFTERNOON. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE                 
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW TO THE CITIES LISTED ABOVE. I AM EXPECTING             
A WINDOW OF 3 OR 4 HOURS WITH THIS QUICK MOVING VORT MAX, SO SNOW               
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.                                              
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
1130 AM...                                                                      
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AROUND               
DDC WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.               
MOISTURE LACKING FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE KC/STJ                    
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND                
EAST.                                                                           
MAIN CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUD DECK                     
CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SE NEBRASKA. LOW            
CLOUD DECK WAS IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN SE               
NEBRASKA. AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE            
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NW MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA GRIDS             
CONFIRM THAT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.               
HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND LIFR STATUS THIS EVENING. WITH ONLY WEAK                
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS IN THE 925-SFC LAYER...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER              
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...LONGER THAN THE MESOETA MODEL SUGGEST.               
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CLOUD DECK CLEARING BY 12Z                                   
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD            
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH ONLY WEAK SOLAR INSOLATION              
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH.                            
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
340 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS BLOSSOMED FROM BUTLER TO CLINTON TO SEDALIA            
TO BOONVILLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE REFLECTIVITY GRADIENT ON THE                   
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND IS ABOUT AS SHARP AS I'VE EVER SEEN.             
AT THIS HOUR IT IS SNOWING HEAVILY JUST SOUTH OF WARRENSBURG.                   
MOTORISTS DRIVING SOUTH OF WARRENSBURG WILL ENCOUNTER A WALL OF SNOW            
JUST SOUTH OF TOWN. CALLS TO OBSERVERS IN THE SNOW BAND REPORT RATES            
OF AN INCH PER HOUR. THE BAND IS MOVING RAPIDLY, BUT I AM CONCERNED             
THAT THE CENTER OF THE VORTICITY MAX IS STILL OVER THE WICHITA AREA.            
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 2 OR 3 HOURS OF LIFT FOR THE COMMUNITIES                 
MENTIONED ABOVE. INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW COLD CLOUD TOPS               
ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SO I WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME                    
REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ON THE BACK END OF THE SNOW BAND THROUGH                  
SUNSET.                                                                         
FORECASTING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG CHALLENGE THIS              
WEEKEND. LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED ALONG THE 925MB TROUGH AXIS RUNNING             
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE            
MODELS DAMPEN THE TROUGH AXIS THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE              
FORECAST DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO             
THE REGION. THE ETA MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE SCOURING OUT LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE ON THE GROUND. I'VE                   
LIMITED FOG TO EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT                    
THINKING THAT STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI             
MOST OF THE NIGHT.                                                              
FOG AND STRATUS COULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. IF            
STRATUS DOES NOT BREAK UP TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS OVER THE TOP OF A                 
MORNING INVERSION MAY LOCK STRATUS IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.            
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN WE GET TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES COULD              
SHOOT UP INTO THE LOWER 40S OR REMAIN NEAR FREEZING. I'VE CUT THE               
DIFFERENCE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.                        
THE SAME ARGUMENTS FOR FOG, STRATUS, AND SNOW/ICE COVER WILL COME               
INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY. STRONGER MIXING SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO              
THE 50S AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT STRATUS CAN BE STUBBORN THIS              
TIME OF YEAR.                                                                   
KOCH                                                                            
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
1205 PM...                                                                      
A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA IS TRACKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE               
AND PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND                     
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE RUC, GFS, AND ETA                       
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL AT 12Z, AND THE VORTICITY MAX WILL                
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO BUTLER,               
CLINTON, AND SEDALIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE            
SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY MID             
LAYER, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED QUICKLY NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS              
THIS AFTERNOON. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE                 
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW TO THE CITIES LISTED ABOVE. I AM EXPECTING             
A WINDOW OF 3 OR 4 HOURS WITH THIS QUICK MOVING VORT MAX, SO SNOW               
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.                                              
KOCH                                                                            
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
1130 AM...                                                                      
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AROUND               
DDC WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.               
MOISTURE LACKING FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE KC/STJ                    
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND                
EAST.                                                                           
MAIN CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUD DECK                     
CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SE NEBRASKA. LOW            
CLOUD DECK WAS IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN SE               
NEBRASKA. AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE            
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NW MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA GRIDS             
CONFIRM THAT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.               
HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND LIFR STATUS THIS EVENING. WITH ONLY WEAK                
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS IN THE 925-SFC LAYER...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER              
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...LONGER THAN THE MESOETA MODEL SUGGEST.               
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CLOUD DECK CLEARING BY 12Z                                   
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD            
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH ONLY WEAK SOLAR INSOLATION              
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH.                            
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
351 AM                                                                          
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT STRATOCU TO             
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC              
LIFT CONTINUING AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.             
MAY EVEN SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT             
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES IS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF              
MISSOURI...CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO            
BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GIVING ANOTHER                  
CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.            
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ON THAT             
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE OFTEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST SO LOWERED HIGHS ON              
SATURDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY                
LITTLE MIXING AND A RELATIVELY COOL START. HIGH MOVES EAST BY                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP RETURNING MOISTURE AND A MUCH BETTER                
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FOG. HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM                 
SATURDAY HIGHS TO LOWS SUNDAY MORNING.                                          
THE WARMER TEMPS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH              
THE ETA IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DIFFERENCE                   
BETWEEN ETA AND GFS HIGHS ON MONDAY IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES. SO LEFT                
HIGHS WHERE THEY WERE...GOING COOLER THAN GFS AND WARMER THAN ETA.              
BUT IF GFS COMES IN CLOSER TO THE ETA...HIGHS TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE             
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY.                                                
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
251 PM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                       
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY POSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
POWERFUL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CONTINUES TO PIVOT EASTWARD ALONG THE                
OK/KS BORDER TOWARD THE OZARKS. STRONG OMEGA OUT AHEAD OF THIS                  
SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING             
NORTHWARD (NOTE THE STRATUS SURGING INTO THE AREA). CROSS SECTIONS              
FROM THE ETA AND RUC BOTH INDICATE A LAYER OF STRONGLY NEGATIVE                 
EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF STRONG                  
INSTABILITY. AS THE STRONG VORT INTERACTS WITH THE ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY LOOK FOR A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOW/SLEET TO MARCH                   
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH            
A ROGUE LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                         
GIVEN THE RAPID ONSET AND UNEXPECTED NATURE OF THE SNOW...IN                    
ADDITION TO THE TIMING (AROUND RUSH HOUR)...AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY            
OF THE SNOWFALL...WE HAVE POSTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH              
MID EVENING. SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID EVENING AS THE            
VORT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.                                                     
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF 2-3" IN THE PITTSBURG KS AREA EASTWARD               
TOWARD LAMAR...SO A QUICK 1-2" INCHES OF SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE MOST             
AREAS. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE BAND OF SNOW...POTENTIAL            
DOES EXIST FOR A ROGUE 3" AMOUNT HERE OR THERE. GRIDS AND TEXT                  
PRODUCTS HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THINKING.              
IZZI                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL INITIALLY FLATTEN IN THE WAKE OF THE                     
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                 
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE                   
EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF               
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP BY SUNDAY WITH                 
HIGHS NEAR 60. THE WARMING WILL BE SLOWED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT            
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHERE THIS FRONT               
WILL STALL BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST                
AREA. INITIAL MINOR SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH               
WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE                
RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL                 
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EAST INTO            
THE CENTRAL U.S. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT MOISTURE WILL BE                  
READILY AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SOME QUESTION TO             
HOW FAR SOUTH THE ARCTIC AIR WILL INTRUDE WHICH COULD RESULT IN A               
ROUND OF WINTERY WEATHER. MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF             
THIS SYSTEM BUT THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINTER WEATHER              
WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.                                                 
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAFS HAVE BEEN AMENDED TO INCLUDE THE BAND OF SNOW/SLEET THAT HAS               
RAPIDLY DEVELOPED. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL LIKELY                  
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LIFR IN THE HEAVIER BURSTS. SNOW SHOULD END              
THIS EVENING...WITH IT STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDINESS               
WILL HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ASSUMING THE LOW CLOUDINESS                 
HANGS AROUND THEN THE THREAT OF RADIATION FOG WILL BE NIL. WITH                 
LIMITED MIXING/LIGHT WINDS ITS POSSIBLE THE STRATUS COULD ATTEMPT TO            
BUILD DOWNWARD. FOR NOW HAVE TAKEN AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND DIDNT             
BRING CIGS DOWN TO IFR OR LOWER...BUT THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL               
NEED TO BE MONITORED AND CONSIDERED IN LATER TAFS.                              
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...WINTER WX AD UNTIL 9 PM NORTH OF A BRANSON TO EMINENCE LINE.              
.KS...WINTER WX AD UNTIL 9 PM.                                                  
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1205 AM CST FRI JAN 7 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA IS TRACKING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE               
AND PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND                     
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS MORNING. THE RUC, GFS, AND ETA                       
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL AT 12Z, AND THE VORTICITY MAX WILL                
LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO BUTLER,               
CLINTON, AND SEDALIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE            
SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY MID             
LAYER, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED QUICKLY NORTH FROM EAST TEXAS              
THIS AFTERNOON. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE                 
PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW TO THE CITIES LISTED ABOVE. I AM EXPECTING             
A WINDOW OF 3 OR 4 HOURS WITH THIS QUICK MOVING VORT MAX, SO SNOW               
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.                                              
KOCH                                                                            
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
1130 AM...                                                                      
STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AROUND               
DDC WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING.               
MOISTURE LACKING FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION FOR THE KC/STJ                    
TERMINAL LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND                
EAST.                                                                           
MAIN CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT/ADVECTION OF LOW CLOUD DECK                     
CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS AND SE NEBRASKA. LOW            
CLOUD DECK WAS IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IN SE               
NEBRASKA. AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE            
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NW MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOETA GRIDS             
CONFIRM THAT LOW CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SE WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH.               
HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
CIGS DROPPING TO AROUND LIFR STATUS THIS EVENING. WITH ONLY WEAK                
SUBSIDENCE AND WINDS IN THE 925-SFC LAYER...LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER              
THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT...LONGER THAN THE MESOETA MODEL SUGGEST.               
CURRENTLY HAVE LOW CLOUD DECK CLEARING BY 12Z                                   
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE LOW CLOUD DECK COULD            
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH ONLY WEAK SOLAR INSOLATION              
AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SWITCHING BACK TO THE SOUTH.                            
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
351 AM                                                                          
MAIN CONCERN IS TEMPS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT STRATOCU TO             
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC              
LIFT CONTINUING AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.             
MAY EVEN SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LIFT             
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES IS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF              
MISSOURI...CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO            
BE ON THE DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...GIVING ANOTHER                  
CHILLY NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES.            
MAY ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ON THAT             
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES EAST.                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE OFTEN SLOW TO MOVE EAST SO LOWERED HIGHS ON              
SATURDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR VERY                
LITTLE MIXING AND A RELATIVELY COOL START. HIGH MOVES EAST BY                   
SATURDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP RETURNING MOISTURE AND A MUCH BETTER                
CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FOG. HAVE JUST A SMALL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM                 
SATURDAY HIGHS TO LOWS SUNDAY MORNING.                                          
THE WARMER TEMPS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH              
THE ETA IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. DIFFERENCE                   
BETWEEN ETA AND GFS HIGHS ON MONDAY IS ABOUT 25 DEGREES. SO LEFT                
HIGHS WHERE THEY WERE...GOING COOLER THAN GFS AND WARMER THAN ETA.              
BUT IF GFS COMES IN CLOSER TO THE ETA...HIGHS TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE             
LOWERED SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY.                                                
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo