FXUS04 KWBC 021845
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
243 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 04/0000 UTC THRU MAY 05/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONGWV TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S. WL LIFT ENEWD...AS A BROAD
MID/UPR
LVL RDG BUILDS FM THE WRN U.S. INTO THE CNTRL U.S.. MUCH OF THE
PCPN WL
BE CONCENTRATED ALNG THE ERN SEA BOARD WHERE DEEP MSTR FEEDS ACRS
THE REGION.

...ERN U.S...

THE STG LONGWV TROF OVR THE CNTRL U.S. WL TRANSLATE EWD THIS PD
AND
BEGIN TO LIFT NEWD NR THE END OF THIS PD. THE ASSOCD SFC BNDRY
XTNDG
FM THE ERN GRT LKS INTO THE ERN GULF WL MOV SLOLY EWD...WHILE DEEP
MSTR LIFTS NWD ACRS THE REGION AND FUELS A SWATH OF MOD/HVY RNS FM
NEW ENG TO FL. THE MDLS ARE IN STG AGREEMENT WITH THE OVRALL MASS
FIELDS. THEY ALSO ARE SHOWG MORE PROGRESSION OF THE SYS LATER MON.
THE DIFFS ARE IN THE QPF. THE ETA IS MUCH LGTR THAN THE GFS. THE
AVBL
MSTR...PWS AOA 1.75 INCHES...SHLD EASILY SUPPORT A SWATH OF HVY
RNS FM
NERN FL ALNG THE SC/NC CSTS INTO THE DELMARVA. THE LATEST SATL
DERIVED PWS SHOW VALUES NR TWO INCHES FEEDG INTO THE ERN GULF THIS
AFTN. WL BE LEANING HEAVILY ON THE GFS SOLU. THE HVIEST RNS SHLD
BE
AIMED INTO ERN NC AS THIS AREA WL BE NR THE NOSE OF THE STGR LOLVL
INFLOW...DEEP MSTR...STGR LOLVL CVRG AND UNDER THE ENTRNC REGION
TO
THE EXITG UPR JET. XPCT SOME 1-2 INCH RNS IN SVRL HRS ACRS THE
REGION
WITH LCL 3-4 INCH TOTALS BY MON EVE. FFG VALUES ARE QUITE HI...SO
RUNOFF
PRBLMS ARE NOT XPCD.

...OH VLY/MID MS VLY...

A STG SHRTWV DIGG INTO THE MID MS VLY THIS AFTN WL CONT TO MOV
SEWD
INTO THE BASE OF THE MIDLVL TROF AXIS BY ERLY MON...THEN LIFT TWD
THE
MID ATLC CST MON AFTN. MSTR IS LIMITED OVR THIS REGION...BUT THE
COLD
MIDLVL TEMPS AND STG MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS WL COMBINE TO SUPPORT
A SWATH OF MOD RNS. ISOLD ONE INCH RNS ARE PSBL.

...NCNTRL U.S...

INCRSG LEFT EXIT REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCRSG
LOLVL
THERMAL FORCG SHLD PROVIDE ENUF LIFT FOR SOME LGT PCPN.

...PAC NW...

CHANNELED MIDLVL SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTG FM THE STG GULF OF AK
VORTEX WL MOV RPDLY EWD...THEREBY LWRG THE MIDLVL HGTS OVR THE
REGION AND BRING SOME LRGSCALE LIFT. LWR LVLS SHOW INCRSG ONSHORE
FLOW...8H CVRG/THERMAL FORCG.  MSTR IS LIMITED SO THINK MOST OF
THE
PCPN WL REMAIN ALNG THE FAVORED HIER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE WL
OCCUR.


DAY 2...

...NEW ENGLAND...

NEG TILTED UPR TROF AND ASSOC CLOSED LOW WL SWING NEWD THIS PD
THRU THE NORTHEAST WHICH SHD DRIVE A VIGOROUS FRONT THRU THE
REGION. XPCT THERE TO BE A SOLID SHIELD OF MDT/HVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION ALONG AND EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS STG
UPR FORCING ASSOC WITH H3 RRQ JET DYNAMICS MOVE OHD. THE FRONT
ITSELF WL PROVIDE STG LOW LVL FORCING AND THIS WL BE
ENCOUNTERING A VRY MOIST ATM WITH DEEP LYR PWS OF 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES AND SELY H8 FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KTS. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SHD
BE CONFINED TO NRN/ERN ME WHERE THE UPR TROF/FRONT WL TAKE
LONGEST TO CLEAR. MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
GFS SOLN WHICH HAS TRENDED FASTER AND IS SUPPORTED WELL BY THE
UKMET. GIVEN SUCH STG UPR FORCING AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONT...HAVE ADJUSTED MANUAL PROGS TO BE A BIT WETTER
THAN THE GFS.

...S FLORIDA...

THE TAIL END OF A CDFNT WL BE SLOWLY SINKING SEWD THIS PD THRU
MOST OF S FL AND SHD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THERE SHD BE AN ABUNDANCE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT AS THE GFS PROGS PWS AOA
1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE BNDRY. MEANWHILE BEST LI VALUES ARE
PROGGED BETWEEN -2 TO -4. THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH SUPPORT SOME
WEAK VORT ENERGY SHEARING ENE ACRS THE GULF OF MEX AND INTO
THE REGION WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MCS ACTIVITY TO ADVECT
INLAND FRM THE ERN GULF AND SUSTAIN ITSELF INVOF THE FRONT.
MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THE WETTER GFS.


...PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...

AN UPR LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST ASSOC WITH A REX BLOCK WL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THIS PD AND SHD SEND SOME VORT ENERGY SHEARING
OUT DOWNWIND ACRS THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. NOT
EXPECTING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE TO PUSH INLAND...BUT
SUFFICIENT MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK UPR FORCING WITH
THE SHEARING VORTS SHD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE SOME SCT AREAS OF
LGT RAIN AND HIGH ELEV SNOW. MUCH OF THE PCPN WL BE FOCUS ACRS
THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS THE CASCADES AND THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA. XPCT AMTS MOST AREAS TO BE UNDER A 0.25 INCH
WITH HEAVIER AMTS ACRS THE BORDER TO THE NORTH. THIS
REPRESENTS AND ETA/GFS BLEND WHICH BOTH DEPICT GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT.

...UPR MS VLY/GRT LAKES...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYS AND ASSOC S/WV TROF WL BE DROPPING SEWD
ACRS THE UPR MS VLY AND GRT LAKES REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. XPCT SOME MAINLY LGT WARM ADVECTION RAINS ACRS
THE AREAS AS A WMFNT ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NEWD. INSTABILITY SHD BE
VRY LIMITED...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CELLS
GIVEN SWLY H8 FLOW OF 40 KTS AS PROGGED BY THE GFS. THE CDFNT
DROPPING SEWD WL HAVE ONLY PWS OF ABOUT 0.75 INCH TO WORK WITH
WHICH WL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE MUCH CONVECTION.
ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHD BE WIDELY SCT.
MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THE FASTER GFS TIMING AND AMTS.
          
ECKERT/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 04/00Z
 0.01 527707 524691 519680 515673 512671 508671 503668 502659 
      502649 498644 493639 490637 486637 483636 480638 472642 
      445661 430675 415685 403694 390702 375710 362718 349725 
      341728 332733 323738 317743 309752 293772 286781 282785 
      276790 262796 254800 251805 262836 261842 259849 256859 
      257865 259871 264873 269872 274869 278865 285860 292858 
      292862 293867 296868 300865 304860 311851 319840 335821 
      338820 340816 344814 347820 346825 346829 347839 349849 
      346863 346877 345885 343889 340895 338902 337917 338926 
      342931 347932 352926 357920 362916 376911 382910 385913 
      388913 392915 398917 406918 409917 412914 415908 416903 
      415899 414892 411887 407882 396872 393864 389856 382843 
      378838 374832 374827 376824 379821 384818 391812 401806 
      415796 426788 436782 445787 437797 427812 426827 431837 
      440842 452838 465824 478808 503772 506766 514753 519745 
      522732 525718 527707 
 0.01 520274 521266 522258 521248 518225 518216 520210 527209 
      531204 532199 532192 530180 528170 525160 523155 520152 
      515148 511148 506147 503146 497141 489136 486136 485138 
      485144 487153 492159 496163 497167 496175 498181 501188 
      502192 502196 498200 495200 490199 486200 483201 480206 
      480210 482217 484220 489227 488232 486233 481230 477229 
      473231 471235 469242 467254 464262 464269 464273 465278 
      468283 472285 480288 485287 488287 503285 510284 514283 
      517280 
 0.01 529072 530067 529063 527058 522052 515040 507029 506013 
      508999 515980 515959 513955 511951 505943 498939 489935 
      480932 472931 464930 455929 444929 437930 429933 424936 
      421940 420944 419947 420950 421954 425956 442961 465990 
      475007 479016 486026 497045 500049 506059 512067 517072 
      525074 529072 
 0.25 487669 481667 475668 468671 463674 448682 434690 406706 
      378721 363728 349733 341739 326749 321754 317758 310769 
      303779 295790 290796 284799 277802 272806 268811 267817 
      268823 270830 274839 277844 283847 288847 302842 312833 
      322823 331815 342806 355797 381779 388774 394770 406765 
      421761 434758 439756 448752 463749 476747 489745 499738 
      507724 511712 509704 499697 489700 479707 472713 460719 
      449724 437727 446715 454708 462702 472695 481687 486678 
      487672 487669 
 0.25 515267 517262 517258 515251 512246 510241 508236 504230 
      501227 498226 496227 495235 493240 483245 480248 479257 
      479271 481276 484278 486279 493276 503273 507273 512270 
      515267 
 0.25 391885 390882 388879 385876 383870 381866 377863 372863 
      370866 368870 366875 365881 365886 365893 369896 373896 
      379895 384891 387890 390889 391885 
 0.50 456695 446697 438700 435701 410713 404714 401717 391721 
      365735 333756 322768 314778 306789 299795 291801 284806 
      283812 286819 287826 284834 284840 288843 297839 309831 
      322819 341803 364787 384772 397763 403760 410756 422753 
      433750 436748 439745 439741 436739 426738 418740 413738 
      416730 419725 424721 438709 456695 
 0.50 500265 501261 500256 500254 497253 494253 493253 491254 
      490256 489261 489263 490266 492268 494268 495268 498266 
      500265 
 0.50 377883 381882 380878 378874 375875 375879 376882 377883 
 1.00 400738 398734 395734 389734 384735 378738 364744 351751 
      344756 324784 306807 301815 299822 299828 302829 309824 
      320816 329810 337802 348794 358787 368780 374774 377771 
      386761 395752 398748 399745 400738 
 2.00 363752 351761 341775 329789 327797 328804 332802 344792 
      356784 364777 370771 373764 374758 373752 369748 366749 
      363752  
 
24HR QP VT 05/00Z
 0.00 559891 549906 535936 529951 526969 
 0.00 491787 479778 467763 
 0.01 522684 519672 516661 508642 505634 500629 492616 486610 
      472603 455606 431634 408660 393684 386702 386710 387715 
      390723 394729 399735 404738 409739 413740 418739 422739 
      429737 431742 430744 431750 434758 436759 439758 443753 
      446752 454756 462761 468762 467767 465773 460775 451776 
      443778 436784 432787 429793 427799 426807 431817 432823 
      429830 427836 426841 428855 427861 426865 417892 416903 
      417908 420912 425914 430914 433920 431927 431935 433940 
      438943 445944 452943 462937 466936 473938 481943 496955 
      506961 513965 526968 531970 537971 543971 550966 553962 
      556955 558948 560938 560931 559920 558910 558901 559895 
      559884 559875 557862 555854 553850 552845 551835 548825 
      545818 541813 534808 525804 520801 516800 506796 496791 
      492787 491784 499779 504775 508769 512757 515750 518746 
      523736 525728 525720 524699 522687 522684 
 0.01 524261 523255 522250 519245 517239 515235 515231 516223 
      518220 522216 524217 531224 535221 538211 540192 539185 
      535181 532171 530168 526164 520156 513152 510148 505146 
      500146 498150 497154 496159 490166 487167 485171 487176 
      489179 490189 490192 487196 482200 475203 468209 461212 
      452214 450215 445215 437217 434218 430223 430229 428236 
      425238 423240 422242 422246 424250 428254 432255 438256 
      444257 454257 463258 473261 480266 485273 492283 496287 
      501289 506290 510289 516282 517280 
 0.01 496149 495141 492136 489133 484131 480129 475128 472130 
      469136 471145 477144 483145 485147 488151 491152 494151 
      496149 
 0.01 476159 476157 474154 473152 473150 471148 470145 468144 
      465143 462142 459143 457147 456151 457156 458157 461158 
      464158 467160 468162 470163 472163 473163 476160 476159 
 0.01 479090 482085 482081 479077 479076 476073 476072 473070 
      472068 471067 468067 466068 465071 464072 464076 465077 
      466081 468082 470085 470086 473088 475089 476090 479090 
      479090 
 0.01 463178 462177 460176 457177 456177 456176 454172 451170 
      451171 450175 451176 453180 456184 459182 460182 462179 
      463178 
 0.01 463106 461101 458100 457097 455093 453090 450089 445092 
      444098 441102 438106 438109 441113 446116 449118 454118 
      458114 460110 463106 
 0.01 453085 456080 455076 453074 452072 450071 447068 446068 
      444067 441067 439068 438068 436070 433072 434076 436080 
      439078 441079 443080 444081 447083 450084 453085 453085 
 0.01 451043 452037 451031 449023 444015 440010 434005 429006 
      425009 423017 426026 429033 434040 438045 444048 448048 
      450046 451043 
 0.01 301797 297786 294776 291772 287771 283769 279769 274769 
      269771 262778 255785 250792 246801 244809 243820 246826 
      248829 250839 252846 254848 259850 264850 269849 274844 
      279836 284828 289820 292815 294813 300804 301797 
 0.25 288800 287796 285794 283792 277788 271788 266790 260796 
      256803 254814 256822 258828 259831 263833 268831 273825 
      278817 282811 287803 288800 
 0.25 509664 505652 499642 491632 484630 479629 467633 453644 
      441653 434666 430673 430682 427685 420688 410697 408702 
      408708 410712 413714 418716 424717 437716 447715 461714 
      473714 479714 485715 496717 502713 506708 510700 511692 
      510675 509664 
 0.25 538878 539870 537865 535859 528857 526861 522868 520876 
      515889 505897 502901 501905 503916 507922 512926 521930 
      529930 535925 537919 537909 537889 538878 
 0.25 516272 518267 519263 517257 514252 512246 509233 506229 
      503224 497214 490215 489216 487219 489226 488233 483240 
      481245 481249 482254 485259 488265 494273 501281 506282 
      511279 516272 
 0.50 281806 281802 280800 276798 271797 269797 266797 264799 
      264803 263807 262811 261817 261820 263826 266825 269824 
      272819 274815 276812 278809 281806 
 0.50 504669 502661 500656 494647 489644 482642 469645 463648 
      456655 448661 444664 442668 441672 442678 444685 443696 
      444700 448704 450706 457707 469706 476705 482705 489704 
      493702 497699 502691 504682 504669 
 0.50 515267 515262 514259 512256 509250 507244 506237 503232 
      500228 498223 495222 493226 493230 496236 499239 502243 
      504248 505258 507263 510266 513268 515267 
 0.50 505267 504264 502261 499258 498255 497253 495250 494249 
      492246 489246 488247 487251 487255 487257 489261 490262 
      492265 494268 495268 497269 500270 501271 503271 505267 
 1.00 493674 491667 488662 482658 477657 473658 469660 461667 
      458669 457674 457679 462686 468690 474690 481689 485688 
      489686 493678 493674 
 1.50 480675 478671 476670 475674 477677 479677 480675  
 
$$