000
AXNT20 KNHC 060610
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 06 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS... 
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...THE EQUATOR AT 43W...2S47W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
5N9W 7N12W 7N20W 5N30W 4N40W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W...
A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF WATERS NEAR 29N87W. HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA 
TO THE NORTHWEST OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS 
FROM 29N70W TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N76W TO 
24N80W AND 25N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. THE ACTIVE
PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N69W
TO 29N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE ACTIVE PART OF 
THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N63W TO 26N66W TO 21N69W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 71W...FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N65W 28N64W BEYOND 32N61W. RETURN FLOW MOISTURE IS 
INCREASING OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER FLORIDA 
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE
FROM THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING OVER U.S.A. GULF
COASTAL AREAS AT THIS TIME TOWARD THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THE 06/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA ALSO SHOW
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM CUBA
NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 32N70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE BERMUDA-
TO-1013 MB LOW CENTER COLD FRONT. A SECOND TROUGH IS MOVING 
EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...NOW ALONG 33N71W 28N76W. THIS SMALLER 
AMPLITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE LARGER SCALE AREA OF 
SURFACE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH...SUPPORTS
THE LATEST ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. BROADER TROUGH ALREADY WAS 
PRESENT WITH THE FIRST FRONT. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS INTO THE 
WESTERN GULF WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NW ATLC BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
PENETRATE THE NW GULF LATE FRI AND STALL OVER FLORIDA ON MON.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER 
THE NE U.S. DIGS DEEP INTO EASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE.  A SEPARATE WIND MAXIMA/BAND OR AREA OF FASTER WINDS...
CONTINUES TO PASS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...CROSSES COSTA 
RICA AND PANAMA...AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP SMOTHERING THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF NEARLY 80W. THE WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 
65 KT TO 100 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N73W 11N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWING THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW. BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS IMPLIED IN THE CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISOBARS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W...
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH 
A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N50W GENERATING MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THIS PART OF THE BASIN. THE LOW THAT WAS 
MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO 
HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED WITH A LEFTOVER TROUGH FROM 19N45W TO 
28N47W.  UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NRN S AMERICA NEAR 6N57W
NNE BEYOND 31N48W COVERING A GOOD PART OF THE AREA WITH 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE AREA 
NEAR 31N27W TO 25N34W ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
23W-29W.  IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... W TO WNW FLOW CONTROLS THE 
REGION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA.  TRADES 
HAVE REBUILT TO NEAR AVERAGE E OF 40W AND A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE 
W OF 40W.  A COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY ENTER THE NE ATLC LATE 
TOMORROW AND A CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY FORM NW OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MT