AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
1020 AM MDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...NO MORNING UPDATES. BROAD UPPER VORTICITY TROUGH FROM             
MAX IN NW NV OVER S IDAHO WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING WITHIN FLOW AS              
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF WA-CANADIAN COAST LIFTS NE. MONSOON-LIKE                  
MOISTURE OVER SW IDAHO WITH DEW POINTS/PWS APPROACHING 60F/1 INCH               
WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER FORCING AND ABOVE AVERAGE VERY HOT AFTERNOON            
TEMPS TO KICK OFF ISOLD-SCT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK SHEAR              
AND 500J/KG CAPE IN SW IDAHO MAINLY OWYHEE-SRN TWF COUNTY FOR PULSE             
STORMS SO NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH ORGANIZATION OF CELLS FOR FLASH FLOOD            
WATCH. OTHER PROBLEM IS APPROACHING MOISTURE AND UPPER TROUGH                   
COMBINING WITH SW FLOW AND HIGHER DEW PTS OVER SW IDAHO MOVING N                
TONIGHT FOR ISOLD NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH THE ETA HANDLES WELL               
AND THE RUC HINTS AT. SMOKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH               
TONIGHT OVER LOWER TREASURE VLY AND WESTERN PART OF WEST CENTRAL MTS            
IN WEAK FLOW BELOW AROUND 15K FT MSL. AFTERNOON UPDATES FOR TODAY               
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH DEALS GLANCING             
BLOW TO NW ZONES AND MONSOON MOISTURE LINGERS OVER SE ZONES.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LOCAL SMOKY CONDITIONS               
ANTICIPATED FROM GRASS FIRES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS            
OF THE FORECAST AREA.. IN GENERAL VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED...EXCEPT              
LOCALLY 2-3 MILES IN SMOKE.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE                 
SHORT TERM WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING TO ADVECT MODIFIED              
MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE OF THE BORDER. ON               
THE OREGON SIDE SOUTHERN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES WILL BE                    
FAVORED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY FOLLOW THE USUAL                  
DIURNAL PATTERN SUPPORTED MAINLY BY SURFACE HEATING IN THE THERMAL              
TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE OREGON BORDER. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL               
SUPPORT FROM WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT THESE               
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND TIME. ONE OF THESE APPROACHING                  
NORTHWEST NEVADA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHTNING IN THAT AREA              
RIGHT NOW. THE ETA BUFFER SOUNDINGS HAVE BY FAR THE BEST HANDLE ON              
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. THE GFS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY                      
UNDERESTIMATING THE PW AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS UNDER FORECASTING             
MAX TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. THE ETA INDICATES THAT PW                  
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER SINCE FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH BASED INVERTED V CONVECTION WE DON'T                    
ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN BUT RATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN            
ATTRIBUTE OF THESE STORMS. WE DO EXPECT THEM TO BE WET BUT CAN'T                
RULE OUT NEW FIRE STARTS WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE RAIN                
SHAFTS. THE OREGON ZONES WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH DEW POINTS IN            
THE 30S AND 40S VS 50S ON THE IDAHO SIDE. AS MENTIONED WE ARE                   
KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS. TRIPLE DIGITS ARE             
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS BUT THIS WILL DEPEND              
ON DIFFICULT TO FORECAST CLOUD COVER.                                           
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH A                         
CONTINUATION OF THE MOIST AIR MASS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS LIKELY            
TO SET OFF MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DURING             
MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...MODELS                 
ARE FINALLY BRINING A CHANGE IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE               
CROSSING EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE                  
WAVE. RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER                   
ROUND OF BEAUTIFUL DAYS AND EVEN A TAD COOLER THAN WHAT IS                      
PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...VM                                                                 
AVIATION...RH                                                                   
PREVIOUSLY...                                                                   
SHORT TERM...JT                                                                 
LONG TERM....GS                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)                                              
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE LITTLE                
THIS PERIOD. WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL             
PERIODICALLY BRUSH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA.                 
PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE AROUND TO POSSIBLY INITIATE               
CONVECTION. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO TRIPLE DIGITS JUST            
ABOUT EVERYWHERE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                           
TONIGHT...SURFACE TROF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NEAR AKO TO OGA                
WILL DRIFT SOUTH. VORT MAX EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO WILL               
MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES IN DRY                  
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF 700MB TROF DO NOT SUPPORT MORE THAN A TOKEN             
20 POP IN EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS FIRING ON              
THE BOUNDARY.                                                                   
SUNDAY...HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS RUC13/ETA12 FORECASTING WEAK                  
BOUNDARY TO BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY.               
BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE TOO LATE TO EFFECT HIGH TEMPERATURES. ETA                
THEN BLOWING UP PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE             
GFS DRY. ETA LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE WEAK            
BOUNDARY...AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION LIKELY TIED TO THIS.                 
UPPER SUPPORT ALSO MEAGER...ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX ROLLING OUT OF                
NORTHERN COLORADO. WILL NOT BITE ON ETA AT THIS TIME. WILL CARRY                
SLIGHT CHANCES IN NORTHEAST ALONG BACKDOOR FRONT...AND IN THE WEST              
FOR ANY CONVECTION COMING OUT OF COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH VORT.                 
MONDAY/TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL AND VORT MAXES                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIRECTED MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA. ETA SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. PREFER THE            
GFS/ECMWF COMBINATION. ONLY MENTION OF PRECIP WILL BE FAR WESTERN               
ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANYTHING COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN THE                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
.LONG TERM... (WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY)                                            
NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA               
THIS PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA ON               
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE                
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. BEST                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH                
WITH THE DYNAMICS SO FAR NORTH DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH AREAL                     
COVERAGE. MODELS LOOK TO BE OVERDOING POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IN             
UPSLOPE REGIME ON THURSDAY...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS               
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON              
THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD              
AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT. RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED MUCH FURTHER WEST            
THIS TIME...OVER THE GREAT BASIN...SO THINK TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL              
NOT RETURN...AT LEAST NOT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SMATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPR MI AND INTO LK               
SUPERIOR. BULK OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS OVR LK SUPERIOR INTO NW                
ONTARIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH DECAYING MCS THAT IS PUSHING INTO W LK              
SUPERIOR. OTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS TAKEN OFF OVR THE TIP OF THE             
APOSTLE ISLANDS SPREADING INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY. PRIMARY                        
SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX OF NOTE IS SHIFTING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD WHILE             
THE REST OF THE AREA IS BEING AFFECTED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE              
300-305K SFCS (H85-H7). ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF LIFT IS PROGGED TO                 
PERSIST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR...SEEMS LIKE INCREASING WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION FM SW IS DRIVING FURTHER LIFT AND MODELS ARE UNDERDOING               
THIS SOMEWHAT. 12Z RAOBS SHOW DESCREPANY IN H85 MOISTURE WITH MPX               
850MB DEWPOINT +4C WHILE INL/GRB HAD AROUND +10C AND THIS IS WITHIN             
THE RIBBON WHERE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO FIRE. UPDATED TO                   
INCREASE POPS ON KEWEENAW WHERE REMNANTS OF MCS ARE COMING ACROSS.              
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN POPS MAY BE NEEDED OVR N            
TIER AS WELL. TRIMMED TEMPS BY 3-5F WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST FOR             
MOST OF AFTN (KEWEENAW INTO W AND NCNTRL ZONES). 0-6KM DEEP LAYER               
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KT INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING                   
STORMS. RUC/ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SEEM TO BE UNDERPLAYING THE             
AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY BEING ACTED UPON BY 925MB-850MB JETS             
OF 30-40KT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT THIS MORNING)...                         
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...NOT TOO EXCITED ANYMORE ABOUT ANY WIDESPREAD             
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL SUITE.                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THERE ARE A FEW               
REASONS FOR THIS: FIRST IS THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE                 
ACROSS THE MIDWEST...NOTED BY THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS MENTIONED                 
ABOVE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 45 TO 65 RANGE. ALSO...THERE ARE             
NO STRONG AREAS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON AN 850MB THERMAL             
GRADIENT. THE BEST AREA...ALBEIT NOT THAT STRONG...LOOKS LIKE                   
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY             
AS THE GFS INDICATES. A WEAKER 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS OVER               
THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY...SO COULD NOT RULE OUT ANY -TSRA FORMING                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TONIGHT ACROSS NE             
MN INTO THE FAR WESTERN U.P. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT THE                    
AFTERNOONS WILL END UP WITH LESS ACTIVITY GIVEN THAT ANY LOW LEVEL              
JET THAT DEVELOPS AT NIGHT WEAKENS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW               
THIS OCCURRING TOO BASED ON THE QPF FIELDS. WITH THE                            
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WEATHER GRIDS ALONE.                  
COORDINATED WITH SPC ON THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA (15%) FOR                 
TODAY/TONIGHT AND DECIDED TO HAVE DROPPED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF              
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 5% IS IN THE SWODY2...BUT AGAIN...IT DOES               
NOT LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD NOTE THAT               
FOR TODAY IT DOES LOOK DRY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DUE TO             
ITS CLOSER LOCATION TO THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE            
WATER.                                                                          
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAYTIME SHOULD              
ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING TO OCCUR...PERHAPS TO THE 850MB TEMPERATURE.              
850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 10-14C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE            
70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST WEST. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SOME WIND                 
WOULD ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY UP TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S OR             
SO. THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION HELPS RAISE 850MB TEMPS TO 16-19C ON                
SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. GIVEN            
THE WARMER SUNDAY...LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW                 
DEGREES WARMER. CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN WARMER ON MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPS            
RISE TO 18-20C...YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. GIVEN THE WEAK                  
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SOME LOCAL COOLING DUE TO                
LAKE BREEZES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WITH THE                    
NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE 65 (LAKE SUPERIOR) TO 70 (LAKE MICHIGAN)                
RANGE PER LATEST GLERL ANALYSIS...AMOUNT OF COOLING WILL NOT BE THAT            
GREAT.                                                                          
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING                
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES...DUE TO A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND.            
AS A RESULT...WARM AIR COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE PLAINS IS            
ADVECTED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A NICE CAP OVER THE                 
AREA. THEREFORE DISCOUNT THE CANADIAN IDEA OF SHOWING CONVECTION ON             
TUESDAY AND WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE GFS AND                
ECMWF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850MB TEMPS DURING THE DAY AROUND            
20C OR PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER...AND WITH A GENERALLY DRY             
AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3-1.4 INCHES)...THERE SHOULD BE            
NO PROBLEM REACHING 90 IN THE INTERIOR. THE LACK OF HIGH DEWPOINTS              
SHOULD MAKE THIS HEAT A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE... NONETHELESS IT WILL            
STILL BE VERY WARM.                                                             
COORDINATED WITH SPC...THANKS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...AJ                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
314 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB APPEAR TO HAVE THE AIR MASS WELL                
CAPPED TO CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE INTERACTIVE SKEW-T FROM THE              
RUC MODEL HOWEVER SHOWS THAT AREAS EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES COULD                
STILL REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE             
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING INTO SW MN THAT IS EXPECTED            
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND              
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY THE               
GFS AND NAM MODELS WHICH INDICATE INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE AT 850            
MB IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS STATES. THE SURFACE GEOSTROPIC WIND AND VORTICITY SHOW THAT              
THE WARM FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. EXPECT THAT            
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS WARM FRONT             
AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS...THE LACK OF                   
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKE THE CHANCE OF               
CONVECTION TOO SMALL TO MENTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST                
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...STILL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...COULD BE                 
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS MODEL FORECASTING DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANOTHER              
SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.                                              
LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                    
MAIN WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONGER TERM IS WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION            
AND COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURE WITH PASSAGE OF MID WEEK COLD FRONT.               
LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE FAIRLY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY BRINGING               
FRONT INTO NW MN BY 18Z WED AND THEN ACROSS WC WI BY THURSDAY                   
MORNING. 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL ABOUT 60 METERS WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER              
TROF WITH COOLER NW FLOW CONTINUING THRU REMAINDER OF LONG TERM.                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
UPDATE -                                                                        
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKING GOOD SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES.                       
GRIDS HAVE BEEN ALTERED TO LOWER CLOUD COVER TO AROUND 30% OVERNIGHT            
BASED ON SAT TRENDS. SPOTTY CLOUD COVER IS THIN LAYER FOR MOST                  
PART, SO SKY SHOULD BE VISIBLE REGARDLESS.                                      
ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND PREDICTED                  
MORNING MINS USING COMBO OF LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE.                            
WILL RE-RUN TEXT ZONES TO ELIMINATE 20 POP FOR EARLY EVENING.  DJP              
PREV DISCUSSION -                                                               
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS N-CNTRL NY            
HAS SPARKED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED            
ON THE AM UPDATE. GFS AND RUC MODELS CAPTURED RIBBON OF HIGHER                  
DEWPOINTS AND CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AT 925-850 MB...AND SLOWLY               
MOVE IT TO THE SRN TIER THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE MORE             
SPOTTY SHRA DEVELOPING THRU SUNDOWN AS WEAK UPPER WAVE TRACKS                   
ACROSS SRN CANADA TO AID UPWARD MOTION. THESE ARE NOT GREAT                     
FEATURES TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET PAST                
CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS.                                           
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND IN THE CASE OF THE NAM MONDAY...                   
PERSISTENT BIAS OF HIGH LLVL MOISTURE AND THUS OVERPRODUCTION OF                
CONVECTIVE QPF CONTINUES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TAMED ITSELF A LITTLE               
MORE THAN NAM AND BASED ON TODAY'S PERFORMANCE IT IS MODEL OF CHOICE            
IN A GENERAL SENSE.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA LINGERS OVER THE                 
AREA...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE BENIGN TONIGHT AS UPR WAVE            
EXITS EAST. FCST WILL BE DRY WITH LOW POPS AFTER 9 PM. ANOTHER WEAK             
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING IN NWLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCRS LLVL           
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST CONVERGENCE XPCTD TO INCREASE                        
...AND ACCORDING TO GFS BROAD SFC BNDRY STILL EXISTS OVER SRN TIER              
NY. A TOUCH MORE HEATING THAN TODAY ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE               
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND INSTABILITY JUMPS UP GREATER THAN                 
TODAY...ROUGHLY APPROACHING 1000-1200 CAPE SUNDAY PM. GFS/NAM QPF               
GET CRAZY WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...AND AGAIN SUSPECT THIS IS                  
OVERKILL...BUT A SIGN THAT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN              
THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DRIER SCENARIO ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM              
CAN MODELS AND 20KM EXPERIMENTAL RUC. GFS MAV MOS DISAGREED WITH IT/S           
MODEL AND CARRIED QUITE LOW POPS. STRANGE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE            
BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM MET AND UP CHANCES JUST A BIT SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON...ESPLY IN AREA OF STRONGER LLVL CONVG ACROSS SRN TIER.               
SOMEBODY'S PICNIC BOUND TO GET RAINED ON...BUT MOST NOT.                        
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL LINGER CHANCE INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING...THEN ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL DISSIPATION WITH LACK OF TRIGGER             
AND HEATING. MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...                 
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO TRACKS OF UL WAVES AND                      
APPROACHING WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT.                                                
BASED ON 925-850 MB TEMPS...LEANED WITH WARMER MOS VALUES DURING THE            
DAYTIME HOURS AND BLENDED FWC/MAV AT NIGHT. -JAB                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...                                           
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  A WEAK COLD            
FRONT WITH LITTLE PUSH GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY.                
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH            
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT             
THU.  WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND                
COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS MORE PUSH WITH A WEAK UL                  
TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE.  CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT                    
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY. -TAC                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (31/00Z - 01/00Z)                                                     
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG ACROSS               
THE TWIN TIERS TOWARD MORNING. AT ELM AFTER 08Z, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE            
LIKELY DUE TO BR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE BTW 09Z-12Z. ON SUNDAY MORNING              
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5K AND 10K FT WILL DEVELOP INTO A BKN DECK                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT 5K FT. AFTER 18Z, WIDELY SCATTERED                      
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO                   
MENTION IN TAF.    RRM                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS N-CNTRL NY            
HAS SPARKED ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...PRETTY MUCH AS PLANNED            
ON THE AM UPDATE. GFS AND RUC MODELS CAPTURED RIBBON OF HIGHER                  
DEWPOINTS AND CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AT 925-850 MB...AND SLOWLY               
MOVE IT TO THE SRN TIER THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE MORE             
SPOTTY SHRA DEVELOPING THRU SUNDOWN AS WEAK UPPER WAVE TRACKS                   
ACROSS SRN CANADA TO AID UPWARD MOTION. THESE ARE NOT GREAT                     
FEATURES TO HANG YOUR HAT ON...BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO GET PAST                
CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS.                                           
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND IN THE CASE OF THE NAM MONDAY...                   
PERSISTENT BIAS OF HIGH LLVL MOISTURE AND THUS OVERPRODUCTION OF                
CONVECTIVE QPF CONTINUES. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE TAMED ITSELF A LITTLE               
MORE THAN NAM AND BASED ON TODAY'S PERFORMANCE IT IS MODEL OF CHOICE            
IN A GENERAL SENSE.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA LINGERS OVER THE                 
AREA...BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD BE BENIGN TONIGHT AS UPR WAVE            
EXITS EAST. FCST WILL BE DRY WITH LOW POPS AFTER 9 PM. ANOTHER WEAK             
UPPER WAVE APPROACHING IN NWLY FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCRS LLVL           
FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. MOIST CONVERGENCE XPCTD TO INCREASE                        
...AND ACCORDING TO GFS BROAD SFC BNDRY STILL EXISTS OVER SRN TIER              
NY. A TOUCH MORE HEATING THAN TODAY ALONG WITH THE EXTRA MOISTURE               
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...AND INSTABILITY JUMPS UP GREATER THAN                 
TODAY...ROUGHLY APPROACHING 1000-1200 CAPE SUNDAY PM. GFS/NAM QPF               
GET CRAZY WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...AND AGAIN SUSPECT THIS IS                  
OVERKILL...BUT A SIGN THAT LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE IN              
THE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DRIER SCENARIO ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM CAN          
MODELS AND 20KM EXPERIMENTAL RUC. GFS MAV MOS DISAGREED WITH IT/S               
MODEL AND CARRIED QUITE LOW POPS. STRANGE. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE            
BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM MET AND UP CHANCES JUST A BIT SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON...ESPLY IN AREA OF STRONGER LLVL CONVG ACROSS SRN TIER.               
SOMEBODY'S PICNIC BOUND TO GET RAINED ON...BUT MOST NOT.                        
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL LINGER CHANCE INTO THE EARLY                 
EVENING...THEN ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL DISSIPATION WITH LACK OF TRIGGER             
AND HEATING. MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...                 
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO TRACKS OF UL WAVES AND                      
APPROACHING WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT.                                                
BASED ON 925-850 MB TEMPS...LEANED WITH WARMER MOS VALUES DURING THE            
DAYTIME HOURS AND BLENDED FWC/MAV AT NIGHT. -JAB                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...                                           
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  A WEAK COLD            
FRONT WITH LITTLE PUSH GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY.                
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH            
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT             
THU.  WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND                
COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS MORE PUSH WITH A WEAK UL                  
TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE.  CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT                    
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SUNDAY. -TAC                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (30/18Z - 31/18Z)                                                     
VFR FOR ALL OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT VALLEY FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE AT MAINLY            
KELM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT WINDS AGAIN LIGHT WITH SOME WEAK            
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG FRONT WASHING OUT. WILL LEAVE OUT SHOWERS IN             
TAFS FOR NOW BECAUSE TODAY COVERAGE LESS THAN ISOLATED AND SUNDAY               
MOST SHOWERS SHOULD BE AFTER 18Z. -TAC                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER            
AND HAMILTON COUNTIES AND MOVED IN TO WARREN COUNTY. RUC INDICATED              
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION WHICH WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY            
AFTERNOON. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION                
FORECAST AREA. NO MENTION OF THUNDER...12Z/SAT KALB SOUNDING CAPPED             
AT 630 MB. TWEAKED SKY...WIND AND TEMP GRIDS BASED IN CURRENT                   
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOG BURNED OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. VFR              
CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE                  
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE AT OR BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF            
EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  NO WIDESPREAD               
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.             
NO FLOODING DUE TO RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                     
AT 13Z...A WEAK SFC TROF...WHICH IS FIZZLING OLD COLD FRONT THAT WAS            
MOVING ACROSS SRN ONTARIO YESTERDAY...WAS LOCATED FROM WRN NY TO THE            
SRN SHORE OF LK ONTARIO...THEN TO SRN ADKS. EXPECT THIS BNDRY WILL              
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TAFTN...BUT LATEST RUC/NAM SLIDE AN AREA OF 925MB            
AND SFC CONVERGENCE SOUTH ACROSS CNY THRU 00Z. VSBL SAT PICS SHOWING            
MORE CU DVLPG IN THIS REGIME. MORNING RAOBS HOWEVER SHOW A GOOD                 
MIDLVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. NOT MUCH SFC JUICE OR HEATING XPCTD                
TODAY TO GET PARCELS GOING ABOVE THIS CAP...UNLESS THE WEAK LLVL                
CONVERGENCE IS ENOUGH TO GIVE THE NEEDED BOOST. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY            
SHOWED SOME ISOLD WEAK SHRA OVER NRN NY. THESE FACTORS ARE ENOUGH               
FOR ME TO INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS                  
AFTERNOON SO WILL NUDGE UP THE POPS AND INTRO SCHC SHRA TO GRID                 
FCST. TEMPS OFF TO A GOOD START ALREADY...SO BUMPED MAXES UP CLOSER             
TO NAM MOS...WHICH WAS ONLY ABOUT A 1-3 DEGREE CHANGE. -JAB                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
TNGT AND ON SUN...A SERIES OF WEAK SHRT WVS MVES EAST THRU THE BROAD            
FLAT UPPER TROF OVER ERN CANADA. WEAK SFC REFLECTION OF THESE TROFS             
DVLPS IN THE FORM OF AN INV TROF. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS USE THIS TROF            
TO DVLP AND FOCUS CONV PCPN BEGINNING LATE TNGT AND CONTG INTO SUN              
NGT.                                                                            
BELIEVE THAT BOTH MODELS ARE OVERDVLPG THE CONV...BUT WITH MODERATE             
INSTABILITY...ESP SUN AFTN WITH LI/S ARND -2 AND CAPES RANGING FROM             
500 TO 1200 J/KG...IT/S HARD TO LEAVE THE FCST DRY. BEST CHANCE WLD             
APPEAR TO BE OVER CNTRL NY CLOSER TO THE UPPER SHRT WV AND NEAR SOME            
POOLING OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE. ATTM...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME OR                 
LOCATE THE TRWS AND SIMPLY GO WITH A GENERAL CHANCE POP SUN AFTN.               
SLGT CHANCE SEEMS APPROS FOR TNGT AND SUN MRNG WITH VERY LIMITED                
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
ONCE AGAIN KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO PRVS FCST...SIMPLY TWEAKED THEM TWRDS            
THE LATEST MOS CONSENSUS FCST. POPS ALSO CLOSE TO MOS CONSENSUS.                
MORFORD                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...                                         
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  A COLD                 
FRONT GOES THROUGH THE CWA MON NGT AND TUESDAY. WILL BE SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FRONT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN                    
WEDNESDAY THEN PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT THU.  WITH            
SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HEAT WILL RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT                
LATE FRI.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (30/12Z - 31/12Z)                                                     
VFR FLIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1010 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION SUMS UP              
WELL THE EXISTING WEATHER PATTERN. FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE              
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWS A             
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ROTATING ABOUT THE             
WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. CONFLUENT TROUGH AXIS IN             
THE LOW LEVELS TO 700 MB LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT PATTERN OF                  
SHOWERS. THIS CONFLUENT AXIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL CONTINUE             
TO BE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE               
DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR                 
CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE               
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER ALL OF THE STATE EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE                
COAST HAS ASSISTED IN STABILIZING THE AIRMASS AS HAS THE CURRENT LOW            
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE            
COAST. NET RESULT IS THE INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY EXPECTED WITH THE EASTERN              
TIER FAVORED FOR BETTER COVERAGE AS FORECAST. PRINCIPAL THREAT IS               
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THE               
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH                   
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.           
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR FINE TUNING TO THE  SURFACE WINDS AND DAYTIME             
HIGHS...NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE REST OF TODAY FORECAST.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 215 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
THROUGH THE MORNING: THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION FROM EARLIER HAS PUSHED            
WELL TO OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH PATCHY SHOWERS LINGERING OVER               
CENTRAL NC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A WAVE OVER               
NORTH CENTRAL NC WITH THE PRIME PVA HEADING TO OUR NORTHEAST.                   
ANOTHER WAVE IS NOTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER AL/GA... & THIS SHOULD              
RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD NC LATER TODAY... BUT UNTIL THEN WE SHOULD SEE            
A LULL IN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS UNTIL NOON.           
MIDDAY THROUGH MON NIGHT: THE SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE              
COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY WAVER BACK AND FORTH SLIGHTLY            
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE. BROAD LIFT FROM DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER JET'S RIGHT                
REAR QUAD PERSISTS... AS DOES THE PERIODIC PASSAGE OF WEAK                      
PERTURBATIONS AS THE BAGGY UPPER TROUGH HOLDS JUST TO OUR WEST.                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY HOLD AROUND 1.8-2.1" AND FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP WARM LCL-0C LAYER NEAR 4 KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW            
FOR HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY. WITH NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REGIME               
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... WILL CARRY LIKELY (NW) TO LOW CATEGORICAL             
(SE) POPS FROM MID-LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN WILL            
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL                
WEAK WIND PROFILE AND HIGH WATER CONTENT IN PLACE... SOME LOCALLY               
HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE            
OFF THE AKQ CWA MAY HELP PULL A BIT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHWEST NC LATE            
SUN/SUN NIGHT & SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP POPS AT LOW CHANCE THERE WITH            
LOW LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFS & NAM DEPART                
MARKEDLY FROM EACH OTHER WITH PRECIP COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY & AT                
THIS TIME PREFER THE LESS-AGGRESSIVE NAM SOLUTION AS THE GFS LOOKS              
TO BE FRAUGHT WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS... ALTHOUGH THE NAM             
MAY BE PULLING IN TOO MUCH DRY AIR WITH ITS STRONGER SURFACE LOW                
HEADING OFFSHORE. WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS OF LOWER              
POPS NORTH & CHANCE POPS HOLDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA            
MON. LATEST GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED VARIABLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES                 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS & FEW                   
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. WILL STICK WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NAM MOS            
MAXES FOR MON.                                                                  
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. DGEX/GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL ROUGHLY             
AGREE ON WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NC FROM THE NORTH STARTING            
TUE... WITH A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE             
LATEST GFS HOWEVER STILL SHOWS FEEDBACK PROBLEMS & LOOKS TO BE                  
HOLDING THE PRECIP TOO FAR NW OVER WRN NC & HAVE TOSSED THIS                    
SCENARIO OUT. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY                  
TUE-THU & WILL STICK WITH UNMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT WORST...            
THEN EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRI WITH THE                   
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST... & WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR             
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE COAST ALTHOUGH THE DGEX/ECMWF               
KEEP IT OFFSHORE. REASONABLE DGEX THICKNESSES SUPPORT TEMPS A DEGREE            
OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL & NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST IS              
NECESSARY.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY'S RAIN...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND                 
LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG THIS                 
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 15Z. FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR                 
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS OCCASIONALLY               
LOWERING TO IFR IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.                            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KK                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
855 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD                  
IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN CENTRAL ND. THE ONE-TIME                  
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BIS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACHING ND/SD             
BORDER NORTHWEST OF ABR. EXPECT ATTM THAT THEY WILL DIMINISH AND                
NOT REACH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND. A NEW CELL 35NM NW OF CWPO SEEMS A              
DIFFERENT STORY AS IT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS              
TOWARD THE EAST. WILL WATCH TO SEE IF THIS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER INTO            
A CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE              
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE BEST JET DIVERGENCE AND THE SHORTWAVE IS                
ALSO OUTRUNNING IT AND THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND WARM                   
ADVECTION ACCORDING TO RUC MODEL (WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD                  
HANDLE) WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE BORDER. PLAN TO REMOVE THUNDER              
FROM FORECASTS EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST MN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER                   
VALLEY. DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT BEARS                
WATCHING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1214 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA...GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING TO              
MVFR BR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KLUK...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SFC               
DEW POINT SPREAD TRENDS.  KILN MAY HAVE MVFR BR AS WELL LATE                    
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THEN...DIURNAL SCT CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...QUICKLY                  
DISSIPATING BY EARLY EVENING.  WINDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT NE            
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH            
SATELLITE INDICATED POSSIBLE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THESE             
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH               
NORTHEAST FLOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE BUT IT SHOULD BE             
PATCHY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES               
LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                     
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA                 
EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT                 
MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL                
BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE 80S.                                                           
SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES                
BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH                  
SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY                
THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND                  
EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND                
CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER               
THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN                 
AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN               
HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON.                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES             
NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER                
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG                     
SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.                                         
TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO                       
MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS.               
TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED               
BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL              
CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70                 
DEG BY MON NIGHT.                                                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART             
OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST            
TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE              
AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN.  HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF             
A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.                                          
WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND             
FORECAST MAINLY DRY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH              
WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH.                                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                           
DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO              
PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED             
FOR ILN/CVG/LUK.                                                                
DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE              
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON               
QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS.                                                 
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
945 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH            
SATELLITE INDICATED POSSIBLE PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING...THESE             
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH               
NORTHEAST FLOW MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE BUT IT SHOULD BE             
PATCHY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF FORECAST. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES               
LOOK GOOD. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                          
AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...                                                           
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z-03Z TONIGHT              
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR                           
DAY...CMH...LCK. VISIBILITIES REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR                
EXCEPT FOR 4SM BR TO OCCASIONALLY 2SM BR FROM 08Z-12Z. HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME CAPPING            
SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.                                  
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA                 
EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT                 
MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL                
BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE 80S.                                                           
SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES                
BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH                  
SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY                
THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND                  
EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND                
CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER               
THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN                 
AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN               
HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON.                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES             
NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER                
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG                     
SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.                                         
TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO                       
MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS.               
TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED               
BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL              
CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70                 
DEG BY MON NIGHT.                                                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART             
OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST            
TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE              
AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN.  HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF             
A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.                                          
WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND             
FORECAST MAINLY DRY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH              
WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH.                                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                           
DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO              
PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED             
FOR ILN/CVG/LUK.                                                                
DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE              
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON               
QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS.                                                 
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
748 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...                                                          
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
FORECAST PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY 01Z-03Z TONIGHT              
FOLLOWED BY CLEAR SKIES. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR                           
DAY...CMH...LCK. VISIBILITIES REMAINDER OF TAF SITES WILL BE VFR                
EXCEPT FOR 4SM BR TO OCCASIONALLY 2SM BR FROM 08Z-12Z. HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO SUBSIDENCE AND SOME CAPPING            
SO THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                          
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                    
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA                 
EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT                 
MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL                
BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE 80S.                                                           
SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES                
BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH                  
SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY                
THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND                  
EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND                
CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER               
THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN                 
AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN               
HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON.                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES             
NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER                
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG                     
SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.                                         
TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO                       
MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS.               
TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED               
BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL              
CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70                 
DEG BY MON NIGHT.                                                               
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART             
OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST            
TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE              
AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN.  HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF             
A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.                                          
WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND             
FORECAST MAINLY DRY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH              
WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH.                                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                           
DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO              
PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED             
FOR ILN/CVG/LUK.                                                                
DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE              
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON               
QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS.                                                 
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
300 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                   
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN PROGRESS ACRS REGION. MAJORITY OF FCST AREA                 
EXPERIENCING MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW CU. CU FIELD A BIT                 
MORE EXPANSIVE ACRS WEST CNTRL OH...WHERE REMNANTS OF WEAK FRNTL                
BNDRY WERE CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK LO LVL CONV. TEMPS WERE                    
CURRENTLY IN THE 80S.                                                           
SFC CONV AXIS ACRS WEST CNTRL OH NOTED ON CURRENT RUC DISSIPATES                
BY 00Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A DIURNAL NATURE TO CU AGAIN WITH                  
SKIES MSTLY CLR BY SUNSET. HI PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACRS OH VLY                
THRU MON AS BROAD UPR RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND                  
EASTWARD. ANY MID LVL S/WVS WILL BE SHUNTED OVER THE RIDGE...AND                
CONSEQUENTLY ANY TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OVER               
THE NRN GRT LKS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG DRIER ATMOSPHERE FOR SUN                 
AND MON WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS EVEN               
HINTING AT MID LVL CAP DVLPG FOR SUN AFTN AND HOLDING INTO MON.                 
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CU/CI EXPECTED...WILL INDICATE MSTLY SUNNY SKIES             
NEXT TWO DAYS. SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLR AT NIGHT. DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY IN 50S WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY CREEP UP INTO THE 60S OVER                
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY VLY FOG                     
SUN/MON MRNGS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.                                         
TEMPS...WITH 500 MB HGTS AND 850 TEMPS SLOWLY RISING INTO                       
MON...WILL SEE AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEG WARMER EACH OF NEXT TWO DAYS.               
TRENDED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUID...WITH HIGHS INTO L90S EXPECTED               
BY MON. MAV GUID HAS BEEN TOO COOL WITH LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS. WILL              
CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEG ABV MAV AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS APPCHG 70                 
DEG BY MON NIGHT.                                                               
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE BEGINNING            
OF THE WEEK TO MORE OF A RIDGE DOMINATE PATTERN FOR THE LATTER PART             
OF THE WEEK.  THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST WITH THE RIDGE AND THE QUICKEST            
TO BREAK IT DOWN. ECMWF AND UKMET ARE BOTH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE              
AND SLOWER WITH THE BREAK DOWN.  HOWEVER...THEY BOTH SHOW A HINT OF             
A FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.                                          
WILL GO WITH A UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND             
FORECAST MAINLY DRY.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH              
WEAK FRONT/TROF MOVING THROUGH.                                                 
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
DAYTIME CU WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NE FLOW TO              
PERSIST AND SOME MORNING GROUND FOG AND/OR SUNRISE SUPRISE EXPECTED             
FOR ILN/CVG/LUK.                                                                
DID NOT ADD CU TO THE WEST THOUGH WRN TAFS MAY SEE A PERIOD IN THE              
AFTERNOON WITH WIDELY SPACED (FEW) CU...NOT WORTH ANOTHER LINE ON               
QUIET WX AND ALMOST P6SKC TAFS.                                                 
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1030 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
MAKING ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD IN POP BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LATEST                
MODEL RUNS...OOZ NAM AND 01Z RUC...SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME                       
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SRN SECTIONS...AS WEAK WAA                
SETS UP...PERHAPS ENUF TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND FEW                          
TSTRMS...GIVEN SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THINK NAM PRECIP IS                  
OVERDONE...IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WILL LIMIT POPS              
TO 40 PCT N CAROLINA...30 PCT SRN VA...AND JUST 20 NRN HALF OF FA.              
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG...AS ALREADY SEEING LOWERING VSBYS              
MAINLY NW ZONES.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THEN THRU THE CNRTL MID ATLC                 
REGION DURING THE FCST PERIOD. ANTHR 24-36 HOURS OR SO OF MNLY                  
SCTD PCPN TO GET THRU BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE TRENDING LESS                
ESPECIALLY BY LATE SUNDAY.                                                      
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO STREAM NE FROM GULF THRU SE STATES AND INTO              
CNTRL MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT. WEAK JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LVL                    
CONVERGENCE HELPING TO FIRE SEVERAL LINES OF DEEPER CONVECTION                  
THIS AFTN. ONE BKN LINE DROPPING SOUTH ACRS EAST CNTRL VA WITH                  
ANTHR MOVG NE ALONG EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. DIURNAL INFLUENCES                  
ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION AND EXPECT                    
WEAKENING TRENDS AFTER SUNSET. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY)                 
ACRS SE AREAS TNGT WHERE LINES OF CONVECTION INTERSECT...ELSW                   
CONTD CHC POPS FOR ANY RENEGADE PCPN ORGANIZATION.                              
MID LVL DRY SLOT FINALLY BEGINS TO NUDGE DEEP MOISTURE STREAM TWD               
MID ATLC COAST ON SUNDAY. BEST FOCUS FOR PCPN RMNS ACRS SE AREAS                
ALONG ON NW OF QUASI STATIONARY SFC BNDRY BUT WILL CAP POPS AT                  
HIGH CHC GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYING TREND. LIKELY TO SEE MORE SUNNY               
BREAKS ON SUNDAY SO HIGHS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY...MNLY                   
L-M80S.                                                                         
WILL CONT TO TREND POPS DOWN FM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS            
MID LVL DRYING SLOWLY TAKES OVER. BY MON AFTN LEFT JUST SLIGHT                  
CHCS ACRS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS (NE NC). EVEN MORE SUN EXPECTED MONDAY             
AS COLUMN DRYING CONTINUES SO HIGHS GETTING BACK TO MORE SEASONAL               
LEVELS (M-U80S).                                                                
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                    
UPR RDG BUILDS EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD ENSURING MNLY DRY FCST AND              
A WARMING TREND. EXPECT 90+ HIGHS FOR MOST AGAIN THRU MIDWEEK WITH              
WIDESPREAD MID (MAYBE UPR) 90S POSSIBLE BY END OF WEEK AS STRONG                
UPR RDG SITS OVHD. LONG RANGE GUID SUGGS UPR RDG EVENTUALLY BREAKS              
DOWN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD (FRI/SAT) SO HOPEFULLY ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT            
WOULD NOT BE LONG LASTING.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
AFTER ISLTD MVFR/IFR THIS AFTN/EVE IN ANY SHRA/TSTM...THEN PATCHY               
MVFR/POSS IFR IN FOG TOMORROW MORNING. BECMG VFR TOWARDS MIDAY SUN.             
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS BECOMING NE 10-15 KT TOMORROW (W/ SFC LOW MOVING ALONG STA                
FRONT)...THIS COUPLED WITH STEADY 2 FT BACK GROUND SWELL WARRANTS               
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS N CHINCOTEAGUE SUN-MON...NEED WINDS OF 20KT              
TO GET SEAS TO SCA LVLS FURTHER S. OTW EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN              
BELOW SCA LEVELS AS NO SIGNIFICANT WX SYSTEM IS FCST TO IMPACT CWA              
AFTER SFC LOW DEPARTS THE WATERS MONDAY.                                        
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650 FROM                
         3 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                            
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM                
         MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                        
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CULLEN                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR MDZ025 FROM 3 PM               
     SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                                     
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ650 FROM 3 PM           
     SUNDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                                     
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ652 FROM                    
     MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...18/REILLY                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
132 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
TONIGHT SHOULD BE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE                 
WEST SHOULD PLAY DOWN FOG THERE. MIN TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE               
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MAV IN MOST PLACES AS THE MAV HAS BEEN                   
GENERALLY A BIT LOWER THEN THE OBSERVED. SHOWERS IN EXTREME                     
SOUTHEAST SHOULD DIE QUICK AFTER SUNSET.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER SUNSET ANY SHOWERS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES WILL DIE. FOG                     
TONIGHT WILL SET UP SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH DENSER FOG IN                    
MOUNTIANS AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPE AND NO MAJOR PROBLEMS OHIO                    
RIVER AND WEST AS THE DEW POINTS THERE WILL BE A BIT LOWER.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
RUC AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME               
SE WV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL BE GOING WITH LIKELY DOWN              
THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE THERE.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 554 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WHILE THE DRY AIR                    
PREVENTED FOG IN THE WEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS THE RULE IN THE                
EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT                 
WINDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR                 
EAST...ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE                         
COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.                  
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 407 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH JUST A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT            
IN THE DRY AIR. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EASTERN                        
COUNTIES...WITH DRY ELSEWHERE. MAV MOS IS LOWER THAN ACTUAL READINGS            
ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS              
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD..SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.                           
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY               
NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS              
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND                 
PUSHES THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN AND             
PIEDMONT REGIONS...THUS BEING DRY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND                    
APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
ISSUES AS WHERE IT IS DEVELOPING LIFT INITIALLY IS TOO FAR NORTH AND            
WEST OF WHERE THE CONVECTION IS THIS EVENING.  THUS HAVE GONE WITH              
THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR SAT NIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH THE NAM FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED THE SKY                  
GRIDS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH              
SOME CLOUDS HANGING IN THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALSO             
GONE WARMER WITH THE MET NUMBERS AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL.                     
BEYOND TUESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKING AT THE             
NEW MODELS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK              
AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE             
DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH HPC.                                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A RANGE             
OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM PRACTICALLY NO FOG IN THE WEST...TO                
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST             
SEEING A STRATUS DECK. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE              
COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.                  
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
AVIATION...AAR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1105 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
RUC AND LOCAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME               
SE WV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL BE GOING WITH LIKELY DOWN              
THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE THERE.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST.      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 554 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. WHILE THE DRY AIR                    
PREVENTED FOG IN THE WEST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS THE RULE IN THE                
EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING DUE TO LIGHT                 
WINDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR                 
EAST...ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE                         
COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.                  
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT.                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 407 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT WITH JUST A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT            
IN THE DRY AIR. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THE FAR EASTERN                        
COUNTIES...WITH DRY ELSEWHERE. MAV MOS IS LOWER THAN ACTUAL READINGS            
ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS              
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD..SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE.                           
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
THE MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES FOR THE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY               
NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE GFS TRIES TO KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS              
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND                 
PUSHES THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN AND             
PIEDMONT REGIONS...THUS BEING DRY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND                    
APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK              
ISSUES AS WHERE IT IS DEVELOPING LIFT INITIALLY IS TOO FAR NORTH AND            
WEST OF WHERE THE CONVECTION IS THIS EVENING.  THUS HAVE GONE WITH              
THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE NAM AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR SAT NIGHT                
THROUGH TUESDAY.  WITH THE NAM FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED THE SKY                  
GRIDS...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH              
SOME CLOUDS HANGING IN THE MOUNTAINS.  FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE ALSO             
GONE WARMER WITH THE MET NUMBERS AS THE GFS LOOKS TOO COOL.                     
BEYOND TUESDAY...HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS...BUT LOOKING AT THE             
NEW MODELS THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK              
AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  WILL LEAVE THIS FOR THE             
DAY SHIFT TO COORDINATE WITH HPC.                                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 132 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR HAS MADE IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL CREATE A RANGE             
OF CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM PRACTICALLY NO FOG IN THE WEST...TO                
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG IN THE EAST...WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST             
SEEING A STRATUS DECK. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE FAR EAST...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME HAZE              
COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.                  
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CONVECTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY AND             
THEN CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH TUE.                                            
CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED A 598 DAM HIGH SITTING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER THE MAIN             
WESTERLIES ARE WAY TO THE NORTH...MOVING FROM A TROUGH OFF OF                   
VANCOUVER ISLAND...NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND THEN                 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN QUEBEC. MANY SMALL                
SCALE SHRTWVS ARE RIDING THROUGH THE FLOW...THOUGH MOST ARE HARD TO             
DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ONE LOCATED OVER SE             
MANITOBA...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC              
LIFT HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS THERE. THIS LOW LEVEL               
WARM ADVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE              
GREAT LAKES...AND WITH MUCAPES IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS               
MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED...                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS             
MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR              
THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LITTLE HAS BEEN GOING ON WHICH                
PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE CAP OBSERVED ON THE 00Z MPX SOUDNING.                
850MB TEMPERATURES AS OF THE 00Z SOUNDINGS ARE NOW 18C AT INL...MPX             
AND GRB WHEREAS APX WAS 12C. 850MB DEWPOINTS ALSO ARE WARM...WITH               
14C READINGS AT INL...MPX AND 13C AT GRB. MUCH DRIER AND MORE CAPPED            
AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THESE 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 0C. 00Z ABR             
SOUNDING VERY DRY BUT ALSO CONTAINING STEEP LAPSE RATES OF NEARLY               
DRY ADIABATIC FROM 850-600MB. ONE OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT                
DEWPOINTS HAVE REALLY COME UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY               
FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH READINGS ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN             
U.P. NOW IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO AROUND 50 YESTERDAY AT THIS                 
TIME.                                                                           
TODAY...CONVECTION OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE              
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING ON THE               
CAP/850MB THETA-E RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY WEAKEN AS THE                 
BETTER LOW LEVEL JET FORCING FALLS APART DUE TO THE DIURNAL NATURE              
OF IT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SEVERE               
WEATHER MAY OCCUR. A WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UPSTREAM OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL BOW THAT CAN BE SEEN            
ON KMVX AND KDLH RADARS. HAVE KEPT IN SOME SCATTERED -TSRA FOR THE              
WESTERN U.P. FOR THIS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE IN CASE IN HOLDS               
TOGETHER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.                                                  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE A MORE TRICKY FORECAST AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND            
ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AFTER THE MCS DIMINISHES AND WHERE ITS              
OUTFLOW SETS UP. WOULD EXPECT THAT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL                   
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C...LOOKING FOR             
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S. IF MORE CLEARING TAKES                      
PLACE...90 CERTAINLY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL GO A              
FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THAT. 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS USING THESE                      
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S YIELDS ANYWHERE FROM                  
2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH NO CIN. WITH A WEAK                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED...LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP. THESE LAKE              
BREEZES ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SHRTWV IN SE MANITOBA               
WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE              
LACK OF ANY CAP. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE                 
ORDER OF 9500-10000 FT...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.              
SFC-10000 FT DELTA THETA-E IS ALSO 25-30 K/KM...ALSO SUGGESTING                 
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. 0-6 KM               
SHEAR OF 25-30KT (PERHAPS CLOSER TO 35 KT IN THE EAST) IN THE                   
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. TORNADO THREAT WILL              
BE LOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AWAY FROM            
THE LAKE BREEZES AND TRIES TO CROSS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY. WILL              
MENTION THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND                
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.                                                           
TONIGHT...SINCE STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED AND DEPEND ON LAKE                     
BREEZES...EXPECT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...TO               
DIMINISH WHILE MOVING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING. NOT                
EXPECTING ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS ANY SORT OF LOW                 
LEVEL JET IS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/LOWER              
MICHIGAN. WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON              
THE WARM SIDE. GOING LOWS LOOK GOOD.                                            
MONDAY...WITH NO ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEAL WITH AT THE START LIKE             
IS OCCURRING TODAY...THINKING IS THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE                
OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C                        
AGAIN...READINGS SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 90. SINCE THE PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK LIKE TODAY...LAKE BREEZES WILL FORM.            
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 625MB ON              
NAM SOUNDINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE              
LOW TO MID 60S...THIS CAP MAY BE OVERCOME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY               
THAT IT IS UNDERDONE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN                
FROM SASKATCHEWAN. ALTHOUGH THE NAM DOES NOT PRINT OUT ANY QPF...THE            
UKMET AND GFS DO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINKING IS THAT THE CAP MAY             
BE TOO STRONG...SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN              
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY SINCE 500MB HEIGHTS            
ARE PROGGED TO REACH NEAR 590 DAM.                                              
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE HIGH                   
HEIGHTS MENTIONED ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY                 
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO                
SUGGEST SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT...DO NOT EXPECT ANY OF THIS              
TO OCCUR DUE TO CAPPING. THEREFORE WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING                    
FORECAST. BOTH PERIODS SHOULD BE VERY WARM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S            
AND GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. MET GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD. TUESDAY             
LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO             
20-21C. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WOULD ALLOW               
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOW 90S...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO               
MET GUIDANCE.                                                                   
ONLY CHANGE MADE BEYOND TUE IS TO PUT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WED NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 12Z             
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING OF THE FRONT CROSSING                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM                  
MINNESOTA. CHANGES MAY NEED TO BE MADE OVER LAND IF THE FRONT LOOKS             
LIKE IT WILL MOVE FASTER.                                                       
COORDINATED WITH APX...GRB AND SPC...THANKS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
330 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH FRONT..CURRENTLY IN              
NW MN WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY. 06Z NAM HAS WAS SPEEDING UP THE FRONT              
CLOSER TO RUC13. WILL BASE FORECAST CLOSER TO 00Z RUN FOR NOW. FRONT            
DOES MOVE INTO CENTRAL MN AND NW WI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN A                
LITTLE FATHER SOUTH THIS EVENING BUT LOOSING DEFINITION SOMEWHAT.               
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION FORECAST BY NAM TO BE OVER PARTS OF EAST            
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BY EVENING WITH WEAK CIN. WILL ADD SMALL              
POPS IN THIS AREA THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CAPE AND NEAR             
35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST IN THIS AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY            
OF BOUNDARY POSITION AND AREA OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM                        
ADVECTION..WILL NOT MENTION SVR AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SPC AREA                
LOOKS OK. SCENARIO OF WEAK RIDGING STILL THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO                
MONDAY WITH BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTING BACK NORTH. WITH THIS                        
SCENARIO...WILL ADD A SMALL POP FOR SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE WARM               
MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE BACK IN. STRONGER WARMING MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY             
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 90S. STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN               
AREA BY WED..SO WILL ADD SMALL POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO                  
THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF CAP.                                         
LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                          
00Z 7/30 GFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z 7/31 GFS RUN THIS             
EVENING.  12Z 7/30 ECMWF SIMILAR IN HANDLING UPPER TROUGH/FRONT AS              
WELL.  THIS SAID...NEXT COLD FRONT TO SEEP THROUGH REGION WED NITE              
INTO THU PERIOD.  ONLY POSSIBLE PROBLEM IS POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT             
OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT.  THIS MAY SPILL INTO WESTERN CWA                
LATE AND COULD POSE PROBLEM WITH MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST WED.  HAVE            
TEMPERED READINGS SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOULD SEE DRY                 
SURFACE HIGH REMAIN OVER THE REGION REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/DWE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...               
THEN ON HOT DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                               
MODEL QPF PATTERNS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS AND              
NGM INDICATE PCPN OVER CWA TODAY...AND NAM20 BRINGS PCPN INTO CWA               
TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL                  
MOISTURE AND WAA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CWA ON EDGE OF CAP.               
MODELS ALSO INDICATE MID LEVEL ISNT LIFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS              
ALSO 850 AND 700 CONVERGENCE...AND OMEGA AT TIMES. RUC AND GFS                  
BOTH INDICATE SERIES OF VORT MAXES WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CWA TODAY            
AND TONIGHT. BUFFY INDICATES AROUND 2K ELEVATED CAPES THIS                      
AFTERNOON WITH LI/S AROUND -4 AND TT/S OF 53. THERE IS ALSO                     
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LAPS RATES TODAY WHICH EXTENDS INTO TONIGHT.              
ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO PUT SMALL POPS INTO FORECAST FOR TODAY                
AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VIEW OF PRESENT MID LEVEL SHOWER                    
ACTIVITY WITH SIMILAR DYNAMICS. MODELS ALSO BUILD MCS CURRENTLY IN              
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO CWA THIS MORNING INTO MORE UNSTABLE           
AIR. NAM AND NGM BUILD CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH                   
SOUTHWARD INTO CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.                                           
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK DRY AND HOT. WILL STAY                
CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURES AND POPS. HOWEVER...IN VIEW OF THE                    
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...WILL LOOK FOR LAKE              
BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD MODERATE                        
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.                                            
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1141 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS             
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE                        
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THIS                
RIDGE. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN U.P.                
INTO LAKE HURON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN                    
ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL                     
MINNESOTA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AND DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN AN            
AREA OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE.                  
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT                
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE             
WILL BE MODERATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                         
HOWEVER...THE LAPSE RATE WILL PRODUCE MUCAPE OF AROUND 3K-4K                    
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO STRETCH              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM ETA12 IS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO                
PRECIPITATION WHEREAS RUC INDICATES HEAVY RAINS. I THINK RUC IS OVER            
DOING THE INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL. STILL CONDITION STILL LOOK                  
QUESTIONABLE FOR THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...IF               
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP               
AND SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96) THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH            
FROM NRN WI TOWARD CNTRL LK MICHIGAN AN SHOULD GET TO LDM BTW 1 PM              
AND 2 PM. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE             
THERE AND THE RUC FORECAST OF 850 MB LI VALUES NEAR -2C ONE COULD               
NOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE A STORM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE                   
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 1000/500MB THICKNESS GRADIENT.  GIVEN THE RUC               
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 35 KNOTS OVER NRN LWR THIS               
AFTERNOON (PUTS THE GRR CWA IN DIVERGING LOW LEVEL WINDS)AND THE                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE             
700 TO 300 MB DPVA IS NEGATIVE (NVA OR DOWNWARD MOTION) IT IS A                 
STRETCH BUT EVEN SO A SLIGHT CHANCES SEEMS GOOD TO ME.                          
$$                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
944 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAH CWA THE REMAINDER OF            
TODAY.                                                                          
FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                         
RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST             
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE               
LOWER TO MID LEVELS.  AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND                 
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT.             
THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND             
INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS                
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN                     
APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.                                                               
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR                 
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND             
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE                 
LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN            
THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE               
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE               
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL                    
MOISTURE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75.             
ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE                 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM.  MSAS SURFACE THETA-E             
VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE                  
TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE              
DAY.  HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE                     
LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND            
500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL               
FLOODING.  WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD               
WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A                  
GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A               
LENGTHY 48 HOURS.                                                               
BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND                   
700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE              
RIDGING.                                                                        
THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE                     
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER                 
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER            
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB                
THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND                  
CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD                 
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST...                    
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN              
THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
IS MOST DISTANT.  MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY              
TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO                 
FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY.                                
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME            
GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN.  WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT              
THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY              
LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A                  
GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE              
NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE              
STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED                  
INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST                    
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE                 
TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS                
MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND               
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN             
THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE                  
FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT                  
LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF              
THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED.  FOR THE SAME                 
REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS              
WELL.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE                 
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.  MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION             
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST.  GFS FORECASTS SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING                
WORK WEEK.  MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE              
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE                  
EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST                     
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL              
LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN                   
STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER              
15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON                 
(~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
904 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST             
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE               
LOWER TO MID LEVELS.  AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND                 
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT.             
THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND             
INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS                
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN                     
APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.                                                               
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR                 
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND             
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE                 
LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN            
THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE               
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE               
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL                    
MOISTURE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75.             
ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE                 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM.  MSAS SURFACE THETA-E             
VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE                  
TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE              
DAY.  HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE                     
LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND            
500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL               
FLOODING.  WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD               
WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A                  
GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A               
LENGTHY 48 HOURS.                                                               
BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND                   
700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE              
RIDGING.                                                                        
THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE                     
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER                 
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER            
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB                
THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND                  
CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD                 
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST...                    
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN              
THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
IS MOST DISTANT.  MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY              
TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO                 
FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY.                                
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME            
GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN.  WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT              
THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY              
LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A                  
GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE              
NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE              
STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED                  
INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST                    
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE                 
TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS                
MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND               
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN             
THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE                  
FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT                  
LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF              
THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED.  FOR THE SAME                 
REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS              
WELL.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE                 
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.  MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION             
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST.  GFS FORECASTS SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING                
WORK WEEK.  MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE              
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE                  
EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST                     
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL              
LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN                   
STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER              
15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON                 
(~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
927 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
MINIMAL CHANGES IN MORNING PACKAGE AS FIRST LOOK OF DATA IS                     
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHEAR LINE OVER                       
THE AREA STILL THE FOCUS OF PRECIP. PREFERRED NAM FOCUSES                       
AFTERNOON PRECIP TO SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE RUC                      
AND GFS CONCENTRATE PRECIP TO WEST AND NORTH.                                   
WITH NO REAL BOUNDARIES SHOWING UP IN MESOSCALE...WILL                          
KEEP PRECIP FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA. TEMPS                            
STAY THE SAME.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 147 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER S APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUE...BUT            
BECOMES LESS DEFINED AS ATLATNIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND WESTERN RIDGE                
RETROGRADES. MODEL DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF MOIST AXIS TODAY...WITH              
GFS CLOSE TO BLUE RIDGE AND NAM E OF AREA. STARTED MORNING POPS WITH            
BEST CHANCE N AND W PER RADAR TRENDS...THEN SWITCHED AFTERNOON POPS             
TOWARD NAM POSITION OF MOISTURE...WHICH GFS TRENDS TOWARD BY MON.               
RAISED POP IN E TODAY TOWARD MET/FWC GUIDANCE...THOUGH STILL A                  
BIT BELOW. MODELS AGREE ON MOISTURE SHIFTING S MON...AND LOWERED                
POPS TO LOW CHANCE MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS S OF AREA...AND                
ATMOSPHERE DRIES FROM TOP DOWN...BUT REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY               
UNSTABLE AT LOW LEVELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND               
CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WINDS TO STAY FROM NE OR E WITH SURFACE                  
RIDGE ALONG E COAST.                                                            
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A BROAD 500HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST AT            
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE                   
EASTERN SEABOARD.  BOTH INDICATE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO THE EAST            
OF THIS AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES.  THE               
GFS INDICATES A WEDGE-LIKE SIGNATURE IN THE INSTABILITY INDICES FOR             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...THIS MAY SEEM             
REASONABLE.  WITH THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE            
TO THE SOUTH...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE END OF THE                  
WEEKEND AND START OF THE WEEK.  THE ETA PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH             
AXIS FASTER TO THE EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH WEAKENING.  AS HAS               
BEEN COMMON...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE DEPENDABLE SO WE EXPECT THIS                
PROGRESSION TO THE BE SLOWER RATHER THAN FASTER.                                
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE IN THE            
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC               
REGION WILL EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO MID WEEK AS POPS                    
DECREASE OVERALL.  WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME DIURNAL POPS WITH EITHER             
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH BUT MORE PRONOUNCED               
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MID WEEK.                                        
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE                  
LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS IS                    
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK AND BY LATE WEEK               
MAY BRING TROPICAL RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH E TO SE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT ON THE VAD WIND                          
PROFILE...PRECIPITATION HAS FANNED OUT ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR             
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP AT KAVL                 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE AT PIEDMONT TAF               
SITES. IFR CIGS WILL BE FEATURED THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KGSP WHERE            
PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED OR IS IMMINENT. MAINLY MVFR CIG AND                
VSBY EXPECTED FROM KAND TO KCLT...WITH CONDITIONS VERY SLOW TO                  
IMPROVE TO VFR CIG THROUGHOUT AFTER NOON. WITH MOIST                            
PROFILES...ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY             
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL ADVERTISE NARROW WINDOW OF BEST CONVECTIVE                 
CHANCES DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VAD                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD                
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS SHOULD             
LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED            
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET              
NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL.                     
 THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND               
THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE               
THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME                           
STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                  
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION                 
EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN.               
BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...29                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD FOR TODAY. AVN                
HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...MORE IN              
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR MOVEMENT. IF ANY MOVEMENT OCCURS...WOULD                
EXPECT IT TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON LOCATION OF                    
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...HEDGING POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE             
SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS IS ONCE AGAIN COOLER THAN HIGHS ON PREVIOUS                  
DAY...SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV MOS.                                                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD                
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS SHOULD             
LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED            
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET              
NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL.                     
 THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND               
THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE               
THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME                           
STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                  
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION                 
EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN.               
BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ROUNDING TOP OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS QUITE                
NOTICEABLE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NWRN HALF OF THE            
FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH UNDER THIS MID-LAYER OF MOIST AND VERY                
UNSTABLE AIR ATTM. MEANWHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS              
HAS REMAINED DRY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.                  
AIRMASS EVEN DRIER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE DEW               
POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING OVER THE              
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT E/NEWRD OVER              
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLATTEVILLE                 
PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 10KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AT THIS HOUR...BUT LOW               
LEVEL WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LAPS AND             
RUC INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE IN                      
LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES            
EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF +40F...SMALL HAIL               
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS A POSSIBILITY WITH HIGH BASED                  
STORMS MOVING OFF THE NRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS NEXT 3-4 HOURS.                 
OTHERWISE STORMS SHOULD END IN ALL BUT THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY                   
MIDNIGHT. WHEREAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE              
NIGHT IN THE N-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN                    
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE UNDER THE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL                      
MOISTURE.                                                                       
MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH A SFC              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN NE TONIGHT...IS                   
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS OF CO DURING               
THE DAY. DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW               
NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THETA-E FIELDS              
SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS              
DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG BY 00Z/TUE. SHOULD SEE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION/T-STORM                 
ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DRAPED               
ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS TOMORROW               
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE TODAY.                                        
.LONG TERM...MON NGT-WED...A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL                   
RCKYS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS SUBSIDENT.  HWVR THE CIRC ARND                     
THE UPR RDG WILL CONT TO ENTRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM MEXICO                    
AND SPRD IT NWD INTO THE AREA.  ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL BE                    
PRESENT FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS MAINLY DURING EACH                     
AFTN AND EVE.  A SURGE OF HI PRES MOVG SWD ON THE PLAINS WED                    
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS SUM AND PSBLY PROVIDE BOUNDARIES FOR                     
ENHANCED TSTM DVLPMNT.  TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A SMIDGEN WARMER                    
THAN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE VALUES WUD SUGGEST.                                      
IN EXTENDED PRD...THU-SUN...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS.              
GFS CONTS TO SHW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MSTR OVR AREA BFR DRIER AMS                 
ON NWLY FLO ALF SHUNTS PLUME FARTHER TO S BY SUN.  SURGE OF HI                  
PRES OVR PLAINS ON THU AND FRI SHUD ENHANCE PCPN.  WILL RAISE                   
POPS TO CHC ON BOTH DAYS.  TEMPS WILL BE NR SEASONAL NORMS EXCEPT               
A LTL COOLER ON THU AND FRI ON PLAINS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.BOU...NONE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/GARD...WFO BOULDER                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
225 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH            
WEAK WAVES/PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOW WARM TO MAKE THE MAXES.               
SATELLITE SHOWING FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SLIGHT             
TENDENCY TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS           
STARTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC.             
FLOW IS BECOMING MORE BLOCKY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL.                 
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 500 MB RIDGE. ONE IS                   
ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING               
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THESE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WAVES. AT 700 MB...           
WAVE IS STUCK IN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.                               
WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND                 
DIVIDES AREA INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALVES. AIR MASS DRIES                
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS ABOVE IT                    
COOLER AND MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE NOT            
MOIST ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER           
RIDGE. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEANS...THE UKMET/ECMWF LOOK TO           
BE DOING THE BEST. RUC IS CAPTURING SHORTWAVE DETAILS VERY WELL                 
FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET/GFS. MODELS DID NOT HAVE HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH              
WITH THE GFS/RUC DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF.                    
AT LOW LEVELS...RUC DOING BETTER INITIALLY ON THE WIND FIELD WITH               
THE UKMET DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DID               
BETTER ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...WILL GO WITH A           
BLEND OF RUC/GFS/UKMET FOR THIS FORECAST.                                       
TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MET/NAM HAVE DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLE FROM                 
RECENT RUNS. RUC IS DOING VERY WELL WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND GFS             
IS VERY MUCH LIKE IT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND MID LEVEL                
LIFT WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THEN CURVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THREE.               
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN                 
YESTERDAY. SO IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WILL NOT BE A LOT.                       
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND MAINLY OVER THE                     
NORTHWEST SECTION. ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD                   
SUPPORT HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST                
CORNER. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FURTHER              
SOUTH AND EAST THAT YOU GO.                                                     
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS IN              
ALL ASPECTS. WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE                  
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WILL ALSO TEND TO GO TOWARD THE                  
WARMER GUIDANCE.                                                                
WEDNESDAY...NEW GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP MAXES FOR THIS DAY AS                    
APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED. BASED ON UPPER RIDGE POSITION WOULD               
AGREE WITH THAT. SO WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GO WARMER AND              
DRIER.                                                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS             
MODEL RUN AND BETWEEN THE MODELS. HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES               
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS INCREASES               
THE HEIGHTS RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO IT HAS              
HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER US PLUS HAS RIDGE CENTER FURTHER WEST THAN ECMWF.           
CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER                   
NORTH...LIKE THE GFS A LITTLE BETTER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE                
PERIOD MODELS REVERSE ROLES WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ON TO HIGHER                 
HEIGHTS OVER THE GFS AND PREFER THAT PER PREVIOUS REASONING.                    
THEREFORE...WILL GO MORE GFS EARLY THEN ECMWF LATER.                            
NOW TO THE DETAILS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE                 
SLOWER AND WOULD AGREE WITH THIS BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THIS COULD           
KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WAS INITIALLY WANTING TO           
LOWER POPS. HOWEVER...NEIGHBORS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.                   
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT FRONT COULD BE EVEN SLOWER WITH                      
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION IN FOR NOW.  FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. RETURN FLOW               
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY. ALSO HAVE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTEN UP AS WELL.             
HOWEVER...THESE SUBTLE DETAILS WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES BEFORE THEN.              
PLUS IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FRONT IS SLOWER...THE ABOVE                    
SCENARIO WILL ALSO GET PUSHED BACK. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW...             
AND LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP THEIR EYE ON THIS PERIOD. THEN RIDGE BUILDS           
IN PER ECMWF WITH GFS BREAKING DOWN RIGDE TOO MUCH. RIDGE NOT ONLY              
BUILDS BUT ELONGATES TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY                      
SUBTROPIPCAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY.           
MEX/GFS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE                     
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BUT TEND TO GO NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE.                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A H5 RIDGE WITH 596 DAM HEIGHTS CENTERED                
OVER CNTRL PLAINS POKING INTO MONTANA AND SASKATCHEWAN. STRONGER MID            
LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER FM TROUGH OFF PAC NW             
(NEXT SIG WX MAKER MID WEEK) INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND SE            
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS               
SLIDING INTO NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ON SOUTHERN              
FRINGE OF SHORTWAVE INTO UPR MI GENERALLY 30-40KT PER 12Z INL RAOB              
AND RUC. SFC FLOW OVER CWA IS MAINLY FM SW ALTHOUGH WINDS RIGHT                 
ALONG LK SUPERIOR ARE TRYING TO BECOME ONSHORE...DUE TO DAYTIME                 
HEATING AND WHAT MAY BE AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AS SHOWN             
BY THE W LK SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWING A                                             
NNE WIND.                                                                       
ALTLHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH 1500-2000J/KG PER RUC THE 17Z            
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FM CMX AND SAW ARE VERY CAPPED AND OTHER THAN A                
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND H85...VERY DRY. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
WE WOULD NEED TO ACHIEVE TEMPS NEAR 90F TO BREAK THE CAP AND GET                
CONVECTION TO FIRE. SO FAR...TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW-MID              
80S DUE TO LEFTOVER AC/CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION THAT WAS OVR NW LK            
SUPERIOR EARLIER. THUS FAR...ONLY A FEW SUB 40 DBZ BLIPS ON RADAR E             
OF MARQUETTE (DEVELOPED IN LK SUPERIOR BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE                  
OFFSHORE OF ALGER CO) WHILE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING              
FAR SE OF HERE OVR FAR NE LWR MI WHERE 18Z SOUNDING FM APX INDICATED            
MORE MOISTURE IN H85-H75 LAYER AND LESS CAPPING.                                
IT IS FEASIBLE THAT MOST CWA MAY END UP NOT SEEING ANY CONVECTION               
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR ABOVE H85 ON THE TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS AND BACK INTO MN AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY END UP TOO TOUGH TO              
OVERCOME. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION NOSING INTO SW            
UPR MI WITH SFC TD NEAR 70F IN THAT AREA...AND BLYR CONVERGENCE DUE             
TO WIND OFF LK SUPERIOR MAY STILL HELP POP SOME CONVECTION...IF                 
TEMPS CAN REACH UPR 80S BTWN 4 AND 6 PM THIS AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR BTWN             
30-40KT COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE             
HIGH INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR APPROX THE WEST                
HALF OF CWA WITH A 30 POP INTO THE E WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS ARE                
PRESENT AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE H85-H75 LAYER. NAM            
INDICATES MOST CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVR SCNTRL ZONES.             
TROUBLE IS PRIMARY AXIS OF LLJ IS ORIENTED FM W TO E INTO N LWR                 
MI...AND THINK THIS IS WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE. WILL               
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT FM ROUGHLY IMT TO ERY IN CASE THIS            
ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD FORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER N.                              
IN ANY CASE...ALL CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY DAYBREAK MON AS             
HIGH PRES OVR SCNTRL CANADA BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO AREA. DESPITE SOME              
HIGH CAPE VALUES PROGGED BTWN 500-2000J/KG (GREATEST S CNTRL) ON                
MON...IT SEEMS LIKE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANTICYCLONIC              
FLOW WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL DETER PCPN. TEMPS...NOT A                   
TREMENDOUS COOL DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ONLY AROUND                     
+18C...SO INLAND AREAS BACK INTO THE UPR 80S SEEM LIKELY...SLIGHTLY             
COOLER TEMPS AROUND 80 NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY WILL BE STILL STUFFY            
AS DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOW TO FALL OFF WAY UPSTREAM INTO S MANITOBA.            
TD SHOULD FALL OFF SOME MON NIGHT INTO 50S AS CENTER OF HIGH IS                 
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
THIS HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SE LATER MON NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR            
FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TUE AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS. H85 TEMPS RISE           
TOWARD +20C IN THE W HALF OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE             
ENOUGH TO ALLOW BLYR WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FM S SO WILL               
PROBABLY SEE SOME LK BREEZES DEVELOP OFF LK SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN IN                
AFTN. CURRENT LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE SHORE AND UPR 80S TO AROUND 90            
INLAND LOOKS FINE. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN FLOW DEVLOPS LATER TUE             
NIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON FAR N PLAINS. SW H85 JET TO             
30 KT AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0C/KM MAY SUPPORT SCT ELEVATED              
CONVECTION LATE TUE NIGHT OVR ECNTRL MN/W CNTRL WI AND PERHAPS INTO             
FAR SW UPR MI. NAM QUITE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE IDEA WHILE GFS KEEPS             
TIGHTER H85 GRADIANT FAR ENOUGH SW TO KEEP POPS OUT OF CWA. CANADIAN            
GLOBAL SHOWS NO QPF. NO POPS ATTM...BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER ALONG            
BORDER LATE TUE INTO WED AM.                                                    
.EXTENDED...GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT                   
PATTERN FOR THE WED-SUN PERIOD. EXPECT TROUGH OFFSHORE OF PAC NW                
COAST TO PRESS INTO SW CANADA MON-TUE AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING            
ACROSS ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUCKS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EAST. MEDIUM RANGE             
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE S TIER OF                 
CANADA THROUGH WED...THEN SLIGHTLY DIG INTO UPR LAKES THU/FRI. ALL              
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA WHICH IS PREFERRED BY HPC. UNTIL THE                
TROUGH ARRIVES WED NIGHT-THU...H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C AND SW WINDS FM             
SFC-H85 SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AROUND 90F ON WED. BEST RAIN               
CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU. AS MID SHIFT             
NOTED 00Z RUNS ARE FASTER WITH LEAD FRONT...PROGGING IT INTO CNTRL              
UPR MI AS EARLY AS 12Z THU. A SECONDARY FRONT WITH COOLER AIR MOVES             
THROUGH LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE                 
DURING THIS TIME. UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOUGH...TEMPS MAY RISE               
WELL INTO THE 80S EVEN ON THU...EXCEPT ON KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS                  
SHIFTING TO THE NW WILL COOL THINGS SLIGHTLY. HUNG ON TO POPS INTO              
FAR E THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN HIGH PRES AND DRY/COOLER WX BUILDS              
IN LATER FRI INTO SAT. 00Z GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT WAVE                    
CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA SUN. WILL KEEP SUN DRY FOR NOW AS OTHER                  
MODELS AND EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED. SEEMS THAT              
BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WOULD BE VERY LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT SO                
WILL LEAVE FCST DRY.                                                            
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY                
TONIGHT...THEN EMPHASIS IS ON TEMPERATURES.                                     
ETA AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE ETA A BIT FASTER                 
WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT TONIGHT. GFS WAS FOLLOWED.                                
THE SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES ARE NEARING OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS             
AFTERNOON...AS WINDS ARE VEERING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AS SEEN IN                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA VWPS. CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS                    
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE YET TO GET GOING. MODIFIED                   
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION(CIN)                 
AROUND 800MB. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AS TEMPERATURES                  
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE              
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MLCAPE IS 2000-2500J/KG AHEAD OF THE                    
BOUNDARIES. LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF OF MPX AND DLH VWP'S SHOW              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 25KT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT                
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT           
NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POP'S DUE TO THE CIN. IF STORMS DO GET                      
GOING...SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND THE                
HIGH MLCAPE'S.                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND             
TUESDAY AS THE FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW            
LEVEL BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.                         
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MID 80S TO              
LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WARM AND WE           
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER MOS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG             
AND EAST OF A CRANE LAKE TO AITKIN LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL             
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO                   
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR                 
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.                                                     
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO                
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH THE              
EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW THIS                    
EVENING...DID NOT WANT TO CUT THINGS OFF AT 00Z. RAISED TEMPS A                 
DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 70S. GENERALLY TRIED TO STICK TO                   
GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE                 
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHIFT THE             
AXIS WEST SLIGHTLY...BUT NO REAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT              
DAY OR SO. THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE                
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY.              
WINDS WERE WEAK ON ALL LEVELS...INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS WEAK. PW               
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...PERIODS OF               
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FFG                  
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE             
PRODUCED 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER                
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE              
URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME            
MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS KEPT A FEW LOCATIONS FROM WARMING                       
TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WERE NEAR 90...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR            
MONDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR ALL GROUPS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO             
THE CLOUDS TO MAKE ALL AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY             
OVERNIGHT. SOLID CLOUD DECK NEVER MOVE INTO THE AREA...SAW GENERAL              
AFTERNOON CU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK LATE              
MORNING. A FEW TWEAKS...BUT NO REAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.            
LONG TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED             
FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND THE SFC                  
REFLECTION WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE (2 IN + PWS) OVER THE EASTERN                
HALF OF THE CWA. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE NOW IS THAT THE MODELS              
ARE HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL               
ACTUALLY BUILD A LITTLE AND SHIFT EAST. AS THIS OCCURS THE UPPER                
SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE SE US BY LATE WEEK                   
INSTEAD OF RETROGRADING INTO TX. WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? TUE-WED               
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH RESPECT TO POPS...ESPECIALLY                
EAST 1/2. THIS IS NO CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR            
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THU IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS THE BUILDING UPPER              
RIDGE RIDGE MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED IF IT MOVES IN                   
FASTER. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS KEEP POPS GOING AS IS FOR THU AND STAYED            
WITH THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING                  
CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCING OUR WX MORE ON FRI-SUN I             
HAVE STARTED A DRYING TREND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE               
FOR POPS A BIT.                                                                 
AS FOR TEMPS...TUE-WED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DUE TO               
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. I HAVE ONLY INCREASED MAX TEMPS A             
BIT FROM THE PREV FORECAST SO I WOULD NOT BE SO DIFFERENT FROM THE              
12Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...ALONG AND E OF THE MS RIVER WE WILL SEE              
HIGHS BETWEEN 88-90 WITH 90-92 W OF THE RIVER. LESS CLOUDS AND                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THU-SUN. CURRENT                
FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON AN DIDN'T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.                           
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE I MADE WAS TO START A MORE CLIMO FAVORABLE SKY            
COVER TREND BEYOND THU. BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND              
MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN THE                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT LINGER LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN.                     
/CME/                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       73  90  73  90 /  40  60  40  60                                  
MERIDIAN      71  89  72  88 /  50  80  50  80                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/36                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
343 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING AS MESO LOW MOVING                
ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. LATEST RUC SHOWING WEAK                
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE...HELPING TO ENHANCE             
CONVECTION. LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG                
CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...FOR NOW PATCHY FOG SHOULD SUFFICE.                          
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS                 
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION TOMORROW BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT            
WEAKER. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH                    
HEAVIEST PRECIP OUTSIDE THE FA. BOTH NAM AND CANADIAN IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT ON THIS FACT.  BOTH OF THESE MODELS DID A GOOD JOB                    
FORECASTING PRECIP LOCATION AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY...SEE NO REASON               
NOT TO TRUST THEM FOR TOMORROW. KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH QPF               
VALUES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THIS DO NOT SEE THE NEED              
TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW.                                              
SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR            
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM/CANADIAN OVER THE 12Z GFS WITH RESPECT TO               
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. BELOW CLIMO HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT                
LOWS NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
REMAINS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ILM AREA THROUGH             
FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH NEXT WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH               
DEVELOPS. DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL                 
LIMIT POPS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS                
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTS IN BETTER PRECIP            
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED                   
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
CURRENTLY A MESOSCALE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST WITH ITS              
CENTER NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF WINYAH BAY. WINDS AT THE                    
CARO-COOPS BUOY SUN2 HAD A MAX OF 16 KTS IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE              
RADAR IS SHOWING A 30 TO 35 KT AT 1000 FT. REPORTS ON THE COAST                 
INDICATE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL MENTION                  
STRONGER WIND AND SEAS WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION             
BUT AS MESO LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION ANTICIPATE SEAS TO            
SETTLE DOWN A BIT.                                                              
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AS STALLED FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST              
PERIOD. WAVE WATCH SHOWING SEA OF 2 TO 3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA            
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AS THE CASE THE              
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THE COASTAL TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER            
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WHILE INLAND AT KFLO PATCHY DENSE               
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL             
CONVECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HEATING OF            
THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR AT               
TIMES IN/NEAR CONVECTION...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KFLO                
WITH THE FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
AVIATION...JAQ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM               
THE SAVANNAH BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT NE                 
THROUGH THE RAH CWA 20-02Z THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP PLOTS CONTINUE              
TO SHOW A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT              
WITH CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RUC               
SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEP SATURATION WITH A SHARP INVERTED 850-700 MB               
TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA SW-NE AND A PERTURBATION RUNNING UP THE                
TROUGH 21-03Z.  DEEP CONVECTION/MCS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW UP THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST IN THE LOWER COASTAL PLAIN AND THERE                 
MAY BE A SHADOWING EFFECT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY.            
EVIDENCE IN NEAR TERM TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SUPPORT KEEPING A FLASH            
FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING              
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS NE. TRENDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS               
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL ALIGNMENT FOR THIS EVENING.                            
DYNAMICS WITH A JET AXIS SHIFT EAST BY 06Z...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE              
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA               
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WILL BE              
USED FOR LOWS TONIGHT 67-72 NW-SE.                                              
MON-TUE...SFC-850 FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC MID MONDAY.               
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE              
GFS WET AND NAM DRYING THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT POP GRIDS                
COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AND SHOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS IN THE SE HALF ARE FAVORED.  A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                
WILL BE ADDED FOR MON NGT AND TUE UNDER MOSTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY               
SKIES. MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER                
80S...AND 88-92 ON TUE.  LOWS 67-71.                                            
WED-WED NGT...HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC-850 RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE            
NW.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS...BUT ETA SHOWS             
AN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  ISOLATED LATE DAY              
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO              
EXCLUDE FOR NOW UNTIL IT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  NAM LOW LEVEL                 
THICKNESS IS 20M GREATER THAN GFS...BUT A COMPROMISE AND ADDITIONAL             
SUNSHINE WED WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER WED              
THAN TUE.  LOWS WED NGT...68-72. -RFG                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE FLOW REMAINS              
WEAK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND            
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS ENHANCES              
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...RAISING POPS TO A            
CHANCE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 85             
TO 90. -DGS                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CIGS NORTH TO MVFR CIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY            
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN WILL LOWER                   
VIS/CIGS TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FAY WILL HAVE THE BEST                   
CHANCES OF SEEING MODERATE RAIN AND LOWER VIS/CIGS. DRIER AIR IS                
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR             
AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO LOW CIGS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR LIKELY            
BEING REACHED AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. WITH DRIER              
AIR BUILDING IN...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW             
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. -DGS                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-                       
083>086-088-089 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...DGS                                                                 
AVIATION...DGS                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
FORECAST BASICALLY A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO                 
HAVE A COLD BIAS OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO              
HAVE NUDGED THOSE UP. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IN AND JUST WEST OF                   
MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN FOG THERE WITH DRY AIR/GROUND OHIO RIVER WEST               
KEEPING FOG OUT THERE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...AAR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHCS                
AND TEMPS.  MID-AFTN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF FM KINL TO KHON...AND              
WRMFNT ACRS LS TO NRN LOWER MI.  ALTHOUGH MDT INSTAB EXISTS ACRS MUCH OF        
FCST AREA...VRY LTL IN THE WAY OF MECHANISM TO LIFT PARCELS ATTM.  EARLY        
AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AROUND ATW INDCT CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY LAYER          
AROUND 840-860 MB.  00Z NMM WRF...12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC DO INDCT INCREASED        
CHC FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION BTWN 00Z-06Z ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA AHD        
OF SFC TROF AND WK MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF.                                         
FCST TEMPS FOR TNGT AND MON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVN MOS.                 
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL             
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS                 
PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.                 
TIMING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALONG WITH S/WS ON THIS NORTHERN PERIMETER WILL          
BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS           
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN          
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION SLIDES OVER         
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                
RETURN FLOW STARTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND GFS/NAM         
PROGGED PCPN TO SPREAD OVER.  HOWEVER DUE TO RECENT TIMING CHALLENGES           
WITH S/WS AND DEALING WITH AN AIR MASS WHICH WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY IN         
RESPECT TO SATURATE...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.           
OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STILL FROM WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT          
AS UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE UPER RIDGE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES            
OVER THE AREA.  GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                      
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN AGAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOME            
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER S/W TROF TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY          
BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL/HELMAN                                                                      
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi