FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1010 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002
AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ON THE
MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVED SOUTH INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
THESE HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED FOR HAVING MOVED AWAY FROM THEIR UPPER
SUPPORT...AND WITH THE DAY'S END. ONE CLUSTER REMAINS STRONG OVER
THE GULF STREAM OFF THE UPPER KEYS WHERE MSAS SHOWS PEAK VALUES OF
THETA-E AND THE LATEST (17Z) RUC SHOWS CONTINUED VORTICITY SUPPORT.
OTHER MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE CLEARING GATEWAY ACCORDING TO NCEP.
FINGERS CROSSED...
OUR 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERLAIN
BY A DEEP DRY LAYER. A CURIOUS FEATURE EXISTS AT ~500MB WHICH LOOKS
A LOT LIKE A FRONTAL INVERSION...BUT AT 18000 FEET. NOCTURNAL
COOLING TO 28C WILL RESULT IN A ~2C CAP WHICH SHOULD HOLD US TO
ISOLATED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
THE UPCOMING COASTAL ZONE ISSUANCE WILL REFLECT THIS DEGREE OF
COVERAGE. THE NORTHEAST SURGE OFF THE MAINLAND NEEDS TO PLAY ITSELF
OUT BEFORE OUR WINDS RETURN TO NORTHWEST ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.
THEREFORE I WILL SIMPLY INDICATE NORTH WINDS...AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SPEEDS TO ACCORD WITH OUR VWP AND RECENT CMAN OBSERVATIONS.
.EYW...NONE.
DFM
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO
900 PM MDT WED AUG 7 2002
FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND EAST WITH
CLEARING SOUTH AND WEST.  IR AND VIS SHOWED BRIEF ISOLD RW- IN
MALHEUR CO WHICH SHOULD DIE QUICKLY WITH IMMINENT SUNSET.  WINDS
HAVE SUBSIDED EXCEPT IN MAGIC VLY WHERE BREEZY WEST WINDS LINGER BUT
WITH SUNSET EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS THERE.  UPPER LOW NEAR
ID/WA/ORE TRI-STATE BOUNDARY WOBBLES EAST PER LATEST RUC AS COLD
VERY DRY (REO DEWPT 14F!) AIR FILTERS IN WITH NW UPPER FLOW TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.  CONTINUED COOL (VALLEYS) TO UNSEASONABLY COLD
(28-38F MTNS) LOWS WITH HIGHS AROUND 12F-8F BELOW NORMAL NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.  CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK.
.BOI...NONE.
MILLS
</PRE></TT></td>   id
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1030 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002
UPDATED ZONES THIS MORNING FOR COOLER HIGHS EASTERN 2 GROUPS WITH
AROUND 80 BY CMI AND 80 TO 85 SE. ALSO ADJUSTED ENE WIND SPEEDS UP
TO 5 TO 15 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SE INSTEAD OF SUNNY.
1030 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES CONTINUES A COMFORTABLE ENE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL IL AGAIN TODAY.
AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...10 AM READINGS
ELEVATED TO AROUND 70 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MESOETA ON TRACK
WITH TEMPS WHICH GIVES HIGHS LOWER 80S MUCH OF CWA WITH COOLEST
READINGS AROUND 80 NE SECTION BY KCMI AND DANVILLE. RUC TEMPS SEEM
A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM.
.ILX...NONE.
$$
HUETTL
</PRE></TT></td>   il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002
.UPDATED...
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING PERIOD. AT THIS TIME FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK.
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH TONIGHT.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP COOL AIR...CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE LOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SFC AND UPPER LOW NOW OVER GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WELL
HANDLED BY NWP MODELS.  NXT 24 HOURS A BIT OF A CHANLLENGE WITH
TAQ-RUC AND ETA INDICATING LOW LVL MARITIME AIRMASS ROTATING FM GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE SWWD INTO NRN AND CNTL ME.  TAQ-RUC KEEPS HIGHS IN
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S N TO S TOMORROW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL OVC.
ETA IS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER...AVN A BIT DRIER AND WARMER YET.
FCST REFLECTS SOME CONSENSUS UP NORTH (LOW 60S) WITH A LEAN TOWARDS
MAV-AVN TOWARDS BGR ( MID 70S).
MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS HIGH LAT RIDGING IN EAST USA WITH WSW FLOW OVER
MAINE.  A WEAK WARM FNT MAY BRING SOME CLDS ISOL SHRA TO FAR NORTH
SAT MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL MON WHEN NXT S/W CLIPS REGION.
BASICALLY...BASED ON 12Z AVN...AND TRENDS OF ECMWF/GEM WENT ABOVE
MEX TEMPS SUN - WED.
COASTAL WATERS...N WINDS 15 TO 20 TODAY AND 10 TO 15 TONIGHT.
.CAR...NONE
NORTON/NOUHAN
</PRE></TT></td>   me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
500 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTH TONIGHT.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP COOL AIR...CLOUDS
AND A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.  THE LOW WILL
FINALLY PULL AWAY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS TO REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...SFC AND UPPER LOW NOW OVER GULF OF ST LAWRENCE AND WELL
HANDLED BY NWP MODELS.  NXT 24 HOURS A BIT OF A CHANLLENGE WITH
TAQ-RUC AND ETA INDICATING LOW LVL MARITIME AIRMASS ROTATING FM GULF
OF ST LAWRENCE SWWD INTO NRN AND CNTL ME.  TAQ-RUC KEEPS HIGHS IN
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S N TO S TOMORROW WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL OVC.
ETA IS A BIT DRIER AND WARMER...AVN A BIT DRIER AND WARMER YET.
FCST REFLECTS SOME CONSENSUS UP NORTH (LOW 60S) WITH A LEAN TOWARDS
MAV-AVN TOWARDS BGR ( MID 70S).
MEDIUM RANGE SHOWS HIGH LAT RIDGING IN EAST USA WITH WSW FLOW OVER
MAINE.  A WEAK WARM FNT MAY BRING SOME CLDS ISOL SHRA TO FAR NORTH
SAT MORNING BUT OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL MON WHEN NXT S/W CLIPS REGION.
BASICALLY...BASED ON 12Z AVN...AND TRENDS OF ECMWF/GEM WENT ABOVE
MEX TEMPS SUN - WED.
COASTAL WATERS...N WINDS 15 TO 20 TODAY AND 10 TO 15 TONIGHT.
.CAR...NONE
COBB
</PRE></TT></td>   me
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1030 AM EDT WED AUG 7 2002
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND EFFECTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FOCUS OF
DISCUSSION
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA...ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND NORTHERN EDGE OF RIDGE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRYING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ALONG
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES BUT DRY AIR HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AT BAY. WILL GENERALLY USE RUC MODEL AND
UW-MILWAUKEE MM5 (DOMAIN 2) AS GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED FORECAST THIS
MORNING GIVEN THEIR HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL JET AND QPF PLACEMENT.
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE
CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN CWA...ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTIES...GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS OVER ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.
ADDITIONALLY...DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CWA WILL PROHIBIT
ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT ANY FARTHER EAST AND LIMIT INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR WEST TO DRIZZLE OR A LIGHT SHOWER AT BEST.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE PLAINS AND
PRECIPITATION TREND OVER PAST HOUR SUPPORTS THIS AS A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN MN.
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE FARTHER EAST GIVEN WIND FLOW
AT UPPER LEVELS IS NORTHWESTERLY. WILL INTRODUCE CLOUDS INTO EASTERN
ZONES LATER AND GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR WESTERN HALF. RUC AND MM5 BOTH
SUPPORT THIS LOGIC.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
ACROSS THE WEST...ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE ON TRACK FOR
EXPECTED HIGHS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE.
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...ONLY MADE SUBTLE
CHANGES TO CLOUD COVER WORDING IN 2ND PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AFTERNOONS CLOUD COVER.
.MQT...NONE.
CVKING
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
920 AM MDT WED AUG 7 2002
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE
.SHORT TERM...APPARENT SHORTWAVE THAT CAUSED SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WAS MOVING INTO N CENTRAL MT AS OF 15Z. BAND
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPARENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA BY
NOON. WILL DROP MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR N CENTRAL MT
AND ALSO FOR A BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PAC NW. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE NW ZONES. RUC
HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SW MT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE LATEST NGM
AND ETA ARE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER RUNS IN HAVING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SW MT EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE UNSTABLE OVER
SW MT SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THERE AND MOVE NE INTO
CENTRAL MT. FEEL ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS/AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL DO SO FOR SELECTED ZONES. THERE WERE HUGE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/NGM/AVN WITH THEIR TREATMENT OF THE
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW. 06Z MESOETA STARTED TO COME
AROUND TO THE AVN SOLUTION AND NOW 12Z ETA HAS AS WELL. BOTH ETA/AVN
DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ID/SW MT THU AND TRACK IT
BASICALLY E. AVN IS QUITE A BIT FASTER THAN THE ETA HOWEVER.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN WETTING RAINS AND COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF TOTALS FOR THU INTO
FRI. WILL MENTION SOME FORECAST VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
BLANK
.EXTENDED...12Z ECMWF RUN NOT AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY
WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MRF
MOVES AN UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. EMANUEL
.CCF NUMBERS
GTF ER 068/048 064/046 072 08466
    BNEBB 050/083 052/072 044/070 045/072 045 63111322222
CTB EW 065/045 064/044 069 08355
    BNEBB 048/080 050/068 040/068 044/071 044 33111311122
HLN ER 073/051 068/048 073 08466
    BBEBB 052/085 054/076 047/074 049/076 049 63111222222
BZN ER 074/048 070/045 074 08566
    BBBBB 045/082 050/075 042/074 044/075 044 63111222222
WEY ER 070/042 062/038 068 08566
    BBEBB 036/075 038/070 033/068 035/068 035 63111222222
DLN EW 072/046 067/044 072 08456
    BBNBB 045/080 048/074 044/076 046/076 046 43111222222
HVR ER 074/052 070/050 074 08566
    BNEBB 052/085 054/074 045/072 048/074 048 63111322222
LWT ER 075/048 066/046 073 08566
    BBEBB 048/081 049/072 045/068 044/070 044 63111322222=
.TFX...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   mt
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
905 PM PDT WED AUG 7 2002
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED ELY ABOUT AN HOUR AGO AND WENT THROUGH
WENDOVER SEVERAL HOURS AGO WITH WINDS BLOWING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
AT WENDOVER. THE RUC SHOWS SURFACE GRADIENT LESSENING AT WENDOVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WINDS HAVE PROBABLY PEAKED. CURRENT FORECAST
OF 15-25 MPH WINDS A LITTLE WEAK BUT WITH ANTICIPATED DECREASING OF
WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LET FORECAST RIDE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST NV LATER TONIGHT. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND DECEASING WINDS WILL SEE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A SLOW WARMUP
INTO THE WEEKEND.
.EKO...NONE.
COLLINS
</PRE></TT></td>   nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
930 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2002
WINDS ARE INCREASING ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD AID IN
MIXING WARMER...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER...AIR DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. STRATUS HAS LIFTED OVER ALL BUT A SMALL
PORTION OF THE NE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING. SOME MID CLOUD IS DRIFTING INTO SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND
MAY AFFECT HIGHS THERE TODAY. LATEST RUC AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
06Z MESOETA SHOW INCREASING LOW LVL SHEAR AROUND 00Z WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. DRY MID LVL AIR OVER THE REGION
THOUGH SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES NOTED IN MESOETA DATA HARD TO PICK OUT IN WATER VAPOR BUT
LIKELY LOCATED IN WRN NEBRASKA WITH ANOTHER IN NE NEW MEXICO. THESE
ARE DRIFTING NORTH IN INCREASING SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF OF UPPER TROF
ALONG THE WEST COAST. MESOETA ALSO INDICATING INCREASING 0-3KM AND
0-6KM SHEAR OVERNIGHT AS LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MID LVL CAP WAS
FAIRLY STG THIS MORNING BUT BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVES WHILE H8 AND SFC BOUNDARIES EDGE INTO WRN
SODAK. WITH INCREASING PWATS OUT WEST TONIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH
INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION LATE...BUT MAINLY WEST OF THE CWA AS
CAPES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FROM BUFKIT
MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FOR NOW WILL NOT UPDATE TO INCLUDE
CONVECTION OUT WEST. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR HIGH TEMPS TODAY
AS WESTERN AREAS COULD JUMP INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH STG MIXING.
FOR NOW WILL PLAN NO UPDATES THOUGH.
.ABR...NONE
FAUCETTE
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MDT THU AUG 8 2002
FORECAST TROUBLES ARE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DECEPTION AMONGST THE MODELS MAKING FOR A TRICKY FORECAST.
MODELS NOT HANDLING THINGS WELL RIGHT NOW WITH ALL BUT THE ETA
GENERATING PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ETA OVERDOING PRECIP OVER
OKLAHOMA. CONTROVERSIES ALSO SHOW UP WITH REGARD TO TEMPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE AVN SHOWING A COOL DOWN EACH DAY WITH THE
ETA/NGM SHOWING LESS OF A COOLDOWN AND EVEN WARMING PER ETA MOS AT
KHLC. WILL TRY AND SORT IT OUT WITH REASONING BELOW.
TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER TODAY
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...LOWER TO THE WEST AND EAST. COLD FRONT MARCHES INTO THE
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CIN BEST FORCING PER 700-500
OMEGA MAINLY TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. FSL RUCII
GENERATES SOME PRECIP A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ETA OMEGA AREA WHICH
PUSHES INTO FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. WILL PULL POPS FOR ALL BUT
NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY. THTE-E AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT PRESSES TOWARD THE AREA. AHEAD OF
IT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE BUT BEST LIFT REMAINS ALONG THE THTE-E
GRADIENT...RUNNING FROM KMCK-KGLD AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WITH UPPER
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AND POPS WOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH HIGHS NEAR
WED READINGS...93-98. LOWS 60 TO 65 NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 EAST.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PULLS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTH...REACHING THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN BORDERS OF OUR AREA BY 00Z. LIMITED CIN WILL
COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO REGENERATE PRECIP OVER THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT IT WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WILL TARGET HIGHS
RANGING FROM MID 80S NORTHWEST TO MID 90S SOUTH AND AROUND 100 EAST
BASED ON COMPROMISE BETWEEN NGM/ETA 850 TRENDS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH WINDS TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE DRY AND
FINALLY A BIT COOLER. IT WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE 3 DAYS WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S EAST.
AFTER REVIEWING MY TEMP PREDICTIONS IT APPEARS I WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE
TO THE ETA 2M GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND WARMER FWC/ETA MINS FOR LOWS
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE WHEN I LEAN ON THE COOLER MAV.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST STAND IN TACT.
.GLD...NONE.
DDT
</PRE></TT></td>   ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002
EQUIPMENT: KSGF 88D APPEARS TO HAVE HAD A SIGNIFICANT FAILURE AROUND
05Z IN WHICH SIGNAL NOISE IS OVERWHELMING RADAR RETURNS. PRODUCTS
WILL BE SEVERE DEGRADED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
VERY PLEASANT AIRMASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS NOW
COMFORTABLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. EVEN WITH DRY AIRMASS AND CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP OFF FROM SGF WESTWARD.
ANALYSIS OF THE 925MB THERMAL FIELD ON THE RUC INDICATES A RATHER
STOUT W-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
DECOUPLED ARE REMAINING QUITE MILD...WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS ARE ALREADY SOME 10 DEGREES COLDER. THINGS SHOULD LEVEL OUT
TOWARD SUNRISE AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO
SLACKEN...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENT TO EARLY AM TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WEAK
SFC-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
NEUTRAL. WILL GENERALLY KNOCK YESTERDAY'S HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO.  OVERALL A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES.  FWC/MAV BLEND LOOKS KOSHER.  HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TONIGHT AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD PROMOTE OPTIMUM RADIATION COOLING WITH 55-60F READINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN PROGGED DWPTS.
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAVERSING THE NRN TIER STATES. UPPER
RIDGE WILL ALSO MAKE ONE LAST SHOW BEFORE TRANSIENT FLOW PATTERN
BRINGS US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLIES. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SERIOUS LACK OF MOISTURE PRECEDING SYNOPTIC
SCALE FRONTAL ZONE...SO WILL KEEP AREA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...THINKING THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK LOOKS REASONABLE.
AS POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...STRONGLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE
WILL ACCOMPANY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH BEST SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL BE E/NE OF THIS SYSTEM (ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY)...SUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT SHOULD HELP TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/MOISTURE DEFICIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS.
DEPARTING JET WILL LEAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT. INTERESTING TO SEE
MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION DEPICTED BY AVN AT 18Z MON PRECISELY
WHERE AMPLIFIED RIDGE IS SITUATED THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER POWER HOUSE SYSTEM TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE US ON
MONDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS SURE TO FOLLOW SUIT. THUS... AN
ABNORMALLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR AUGUST IS LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
AS SURFACE HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THEREFORE...CHANCE POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. RECEIPT OF AVN STOPPED BEYOND 114 HOURS...SO WILL NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
FINAL ISC GRIDS OUT SHORTLY. THANKS ICT FOR COORD.
.SGF...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.
BOOKBINDER
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002
...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE SCALE
MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE HEART OF THE CONUS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ANOTHER TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR WORKING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER...AMPLE LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE -- GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY
850MB/700MB DEWPOINTS OF 10-15C AND 5C RESPECTIVELY.
LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN SCNTRL
ND...WITH COLD FRONT MEANDERING WESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WY. LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE ND SFC LOW THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS OF SD AND
NEB. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION...BUT 70 DEG
DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST NEB.
AS UPPER TROUGH HEADS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD AS WELL. WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PUSH OF SIGNIFICANCE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...LEE TROUGH LIKELY TO REMAIN
THROUGH WESTERN NEB AND WRN KS/ERN CO UNTIL LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL BE LIMITED...PROBABLY PRUDENT
TO AT LEAST HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN THE N/W SECTIONS OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. 00Z ETA SUGGESTING A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP THROUGH
WESTERN NEB LATE TONIGHT...WITH CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/THETA-E INFLUX...IN ADDITION TO MODEL INDICATION OF
APPROACH OF UPPER SPEED MAX OVERNIGHT INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AMIDST
HEIGHT FALLS OF UPPER TROUGH.
BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND GFS THEN REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY...
WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA.
WILL UP THE RAIN CHANCES GIVEN EXPECTATIONS OF COLD FRONT BEING
CENTRALLY LOCATED THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN UPPER
SUPPORT...STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MASS
CONVERGENCE SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM ON FRIDAY. ETA KAIN-FRITSCH AND DEVELOPMENTAL RUC-20 BOTH
SUGGEST TSRA DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING.
CORRESPONDING POSSIBILITIES FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY -- 00Z ETA INDICATING AXIS OF
2000+ J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR / AROUND 30 KTS 0-6 KM / AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. GIVEN LINEAR FORCING...AND RELATIVELY
HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO LEVELS IN PRESENCE OF ONLY MARGINAL
SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS PROBABLY MORE OF A THREAT THAN LARGE HAIL.
COLD FRONT THEN DEPARTS EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY...AS COOLER
AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
.GID...NONE.
GUYER
</PRE></TT></td>   ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1112 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2002
UPDATE CONCERNS FOCUS ON CLOUDS/TEMPS.
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AMPLIFIED MID UPR LVL PATTERN WITH
A TROF FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...A RDG OVER CNTRL
NOAM...AND A TROF OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPR MI IN NRLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW AHD OF THE RDG. SERIES OF SHRTWVS MOVG THRU PLAINS
STATES PRODUCING SPOTTY CONVECTION FM NEBRASKA INTO SRN CANADA WHERE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT AIDED BY 35-40 KT 850 MB JET NOSING OVR AREA. WK
SHRTWV WHICH SLID OVR RDG LAST NIGHT STILL KEEPING BAND OF CLDS
TOGETHER FM CNTRL ONTARIO INTO CNTRL U.P. AS PER VIS SATL LOOP.
HWVR...THIS BAND SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AS UPR RDG CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY FM WEST.
12Z ETA SHOWS UPR RDG CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVR UPR MI THIS AFT AS
TROF DIGS INTO NRN RCKYS. ASSOC DNVA...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH
RDGG SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN BAND OF CLDS OVR CNTRL U.P. AS IT MOVES
E. THUS...EXPECT PLENTY OF AFT SUNSHINE TO ALLOW FOR DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB. USING 12Z GRB SNDG THIS WOULD YIELD INLAND
HIGH TEMPS IN LOWER 80S...FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREV FCST.
CONSEQUENTLY...DIDN'T CHANGE MUCH IN WAY OF INLAND HIGH TEMPS.
PARTLY SUNNY FCST STILL ON TRACK AS WELL. DID INCLUDE SOME LIGHT
S-SW WINDS ON OVR WEST AND CNTRL ZONES ON BACKSIDE ON SFC RDG AXIS.
.MQT...NONE.
VOSS
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 8 2002
DISC: MORNING LOWS WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST
LOCATIONS...CAA FROM NRLY FLOW AND VORT MAX WRAPPING AROUND LO TO
THE N WILL CAUSE SC CU TO FORM THIS AFTN.  NRLY ZONES COULD SEE A
SPRINKLE...SNAPSHOT OF RUC SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP AT 13Z.
LIGHT WINDS NRLY THIS MRNG WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTN WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ADDRESSING WINDS IN SUPPORT OF ISOLATED
BRUSHFIRE IN ONE OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FRIDAY SHIFTING TO SW INTO THE WEEKEND.
QUIET ON THE MARINE...HOWEVER, NEW MOON CAUSING SLIGHT RISE IN TIDES
ESP NOTICABLE IN THE BACK BAYS.
WILL RESEND ZONES TO FRESHEN THE WORDING.
LITWIN/EBERWINE
****
MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING WEAK VORT MOVING S THRU CWA
MIDDAY/AFTN...AND WITH CONTD NLY CAA FLOW COMBINED WITH SOME
CYCLONIC LIFT...FEEL WE SHUD AT LEAST HAVE A REPLAY OF MIDDAY/AFTN
SC SPCLY ERN ZONES AS MSTR POOLS A BIT UNDER THE CAP. WL SAY BCMG PTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN...WITH SOME RESIDUAL CLDS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING
BFR CLRG. WINDS SHUD AGAIN BE A BIT GUSTY FM THE N TDA BFR
DECOUPLING TNGT...WITH SFC HI THEN HI BLDG OVR THE CWA FRI BRINGING
SUNNY SKIES AND LGT/VRBL WINDS. WL AGAIN COUNT ON A CBRZ CSTL ZONES
IN THE AFTNS.
NEXT PRECIP RETAINED FOR MIDWEEK...ALTHO IT MAY BE MORE TUE NITISH
INTO WED INSTEAD OF WED INTO THU...BUT WED IS THE LAST DAY OF THE
FCST ANYWAY SO NO CHGS NOW.
NOTHING UP ON THE MARINE.
MPO   76  51  78  53 /  10   0   0   0
ABE   81  54  82  57 /  10   0   0   0
RDG   82  55  83  59 /  10   0   0   0
PHL   84  62  85  63 /  10   0   0   0
12N   79  53  81  56 /  10   0   0   0
SMQ   82  57  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
TTN   83  59  84  62 /  10   0   0   0
MIV   81  56  82  56 /  10   0   0   0
ACY   79  63  80  63 /  10   0   0   0
ILG   83  60  84  62 /  10   0   0   0
DOV   81  58  82  59 /  10   0   0   0
GED   82  59  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
ESN   82  60  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
.PHI...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   pa
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
933 AM CDT THU AUG 8 2002
FORECAST ITEMS FOR TODAY ARE MAINLY CONCERNED WITH THE IMPACT OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OFF THE COAST.  THIS INCLUDE RAIN BANDS MOVING
ONSHORE...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN TWO
COUNTIES AND WATERSPOUT POSSIBILITIES ALONG THE ENTIRE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.
TAKING THE SECOND POSSIBILITY FIRST...WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE THE WATERSPOUT
PROBLEM.  ALREADY THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF TWO WATERSPOUTS OFF THE
EAST END OF GALVESTON ISLAND.  CONCERNING THE RAIN THREAT...FEEL THE
CURRENT POPS ARE OKAY FOR MOST AREAS.  WILL UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
OVER JACKSON AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES AND UP THE POPS TO LIKELY OVER
BRAZORIA AND WHARTON COUNTIES.  THIS IS DUE IN PART TO CURRENT TRENDS
AND THE RUC FORECAST.
PL-40
33
.HGX...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   tx