FXUS61 KBUF 241931
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WASHED OUT COLD FRONT OVER THE 
SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS. DIURNAL SC/CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF 
FOG REFORMING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST 
ON WEDNESDAY. ETA INITIALIZED WELL ON THE CONVECTION OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH THEN DEPICTS SHRA/TSRA OVER 
WESTERN NY ON WED AFTERNOON. WENT WITH CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO FWC/MAV 
POPS RATHER THAN THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS AS IN MET MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BLOCK THE 
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TROUGHING OVER THE MID CONTINENT...BUT A 
FEW WEAK VORTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS 
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE 
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE CONDITIONS MORE HUMID AND 
PRONE TO CONVECTION ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. I STUCK WITH THE 
LAKE ERIE BREEZE AS THE MORE LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION AS THE LAKE 
ONTARIO BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED BY THE 
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...  

AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD OVER 
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE WILL BE AS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID 
CONTINENT TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE AND 
INCURSIONS OF COOLER AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
SWINGS THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH CHANCE POPS 
FOR SHRA/TSRA...THEN THE FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA OVER CENTRAL PA. RETURNING WARM H8 ADVECTION BRINGS PRECIP BACK 
TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT 
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS BY ON 
TUESDAY....CHANCE POPS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK 
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON 
BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING CEASES AND CIGS DISSIPATE. THE REST OF THE 
REGION WILL BE VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

HOWEVER, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WE WILL LIKELY SEE A RETURN OF FOG 
TONIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR AT TIMES IN PLACES SUCH 
AS JHW. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH FOG TONIGHT WILL BE THE 
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. BUFKIT ETA PROFILE 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TONIGHT SUGGEST 25KT+ WINDS AT 1500 FT.  
EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY DECOUPLED FROM THOSE 
WINDS...THEY MAY MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO STIR UP CONDITIONS AT TIMES.  
BASED ON THE UPS FOG ALGORITHM FOR JHW, THE POTENTIAL MIXING COULD 
LIMIT SURFACE FOG AND JUST KEEP A LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THAT 
REGION. JHW IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 1700 FT. SO IN ANY EVENT, WE WOULD 
LIKELY SEE IFR CIGS AND COULD EVEN BE IFR FOR VSBY IF STRATUS IS 
THAT LOW.  

ON WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD STAY IFR FROM GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.  THERE 
IS THE POTENTIAL BY LATE MORNING HOWEVER TO SEE MVFR CIGS AT TIMES 
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING LAKE ONTARIO
         FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY. 

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...HIBBERT
AVIATION...NIZIOL