EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
810 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING N OF FL ATTM. ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY                
CONVERGENCE OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE            
CENTRAL PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED             
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. WITH THESE FEATURES IN             
PLACE ANTICIPATE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE             
EARLY MORNING HOURS. DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GOMEX WAS              
SPREADING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO THE PENINSULA. AGREE WITH TBW                
THAT TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST              
AND THE INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY               
RAIN WEST OF THE AREA. WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO FIRST PERIOD              
WORDING ON UPDATE.                                                              
MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY 009 ARE STAYING UP PER THE LAST SECOND                   
FORECAST TWEAK UPWARD TO 15 KTS....WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY GRADIENT               
IN THE MAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS. 21Z RUC WAS UNREALISTIC IN QUICKLY                
WEAKENING WINDS BY 00Z (NOW) TO AROUND 5-10 KTS. WILL SEE WHAT TAKES            
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ALTHOUGH             
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED TO NUDGE WINDS UP INTO            
10-15 KT RANGE FOR THE "AFTER MIDNIGHT" PERIOD.                                 
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PENDERGRAST/CRISTALDI                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 042357  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
730 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS WEAK BUT DISTINCT TROF EXTENDING FROM             
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF TO A WEAK                
LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TD 11.                   
SEVERAL CSI TYPE BANDS HAVE FORMED PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY AND            
ARE CAUSING SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG               
IT...THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MEAN STEERING FLOW ABOVE 5000               
FT. DURING THE DAY THE DIURNAL SITUATION DOES NOT FAVOR THESE                   
HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AS NIGHTFALL               
APPROACHES...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO                 
MAKE IT ONSHORE. THIS PRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY             
RAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. LATEST NESDIS              
DISCUSSION POINTS OUT HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OFFSHORE WITH                       
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF...AND BRINING THIS INTO OUR AREA WOULD                 
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 + INCHES OVER OUR CENTRAL FA. 12Z ETA                
HINTED AT THIS SCENARIO...AND RUC IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THIS TREND AS            
WELL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BECAUSE IF THESE                   
AMOUNTS DO OCCUR WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MINOR FLOODING ON OUR               
RIVERS. MANY OF THEM ARE ALREADY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE                
RECENT RAINS.                                                                   
WE ARE ALSO SEEING SOME DECENT MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. 88D                 
STARTING TO SOUND OFF FOR MESOS...BUT THEY ARE OFFSHORE FOR NOW.                
AS FAR AS THE ZONES ARE CONCERNED...I WILL UPDATE LATER SO I CAN SEE            
THE PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. IF                 
THIS HOLDS TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...I WILL ADD                  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WORDING.                            
MARINE LOOKS OKAY. WINDS ARE COMING DOWN AT BUOY 42036 SO I WILL                
PROBABLY LIGHTEN UP ON THE OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL TAKE THE              
BECOMING OUT FOR THE NORTHERN LEGS AS WELL.                                     
ALSHEIMER                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 042205  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
313 AM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
PESKY SC CIGS ARE MAKING SLO PROGRESS EAST ALBEIT UNDER 10KTS.                  
LATEST RUC HAS 80-85PCT RH LN INTO SERN IA BY 12Z WHICH IS FAST. NRN            
PTN OF CWA ABT OUT OF THEM WITH THE SERN CRNR GOING THIS MRNG. MAY              
OR MAY NOT SPLIT OUT A ZONE FOR THE SC AT ISSUANCE. REMINDER OF THE             
FCST STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH MDLS VRY SIMILAR. FAST MOVER SWINGS ACRS             
MN/WI BY 48HRS WITH ATTENDANT CAVU CDFNT. FWC PROBABLY A BIT                    
OPTIMISTIC ON WRMUP IN IA...THUS MAINTAINED CONTINUITY ON TEMPS                 
WHICH ARE RUNNING A CAT OR TWO BLO SUGGESTED NUMBERS.                           
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
MYERS                                                                           
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                      
PREV FCST SEEMS ON TRACK.  LATE AFTN RUC MODEL COMPARISON WITH SAT              
DATA...SHOWING CLEARING SKIES LINING UP WELL WITH 75-80 PCT 950 MB              
MOIST. CLRG LINE SHUD MOVE TO JUST S OF OHIO RVR TNGT AND WRN PART              
OF FA -- AND STOP -- WAITING UNTIL SFC HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EWD TWD              
RGN.                                                                            
AS A RESULT PARTIAL CLRG WRN FA LKS GOOD -- WITH CLDY SKIES E                   
PARTS. HAVE FIDDLED WITH TEMPS A BIT TNGT (MINOR ADJUSTMENTS)                   
AND MADE CLD ADJUSTMENT FOR TRANSITION INTO 2ND PD FCST.                        
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 050050  ky                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
850 PM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
COLD FRONT OVER SERN CORNER OF MS MOVING SWD BUT HAS RAPIDLY                    
DEVELOPED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT SINCE                 
ABOUT 0030Z. 21Z RUC INDICATED A NICE MOISTURE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG            
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED TO KEEP A CHANCE         
OF TSRA IN THE FAR SE UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. WILL KEEP            
REST OF ZONE PACKAGE AS IS FOR NOW.                                             
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 041858 COR  ms                                  

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1010 AM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                      
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO WIPE OUT POPS NORTH OF KHEZ-KMEI LINE WHERE        
MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL            
FOR PRECIP IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. THIS IS ALSO SEEN AS A CLEAR ZONE            
ON SATELLITE. SPEAKING OF THIS CLEAR ZONE...WILL REWORD MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY FORECAST TO REFLECT INCREASING CLOUDS AS STRATUS DECK ADVECTS            
IN FROM NORTH AND BECOMES MORE OF A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS              
DECK THAN THE OVERCAST STRATUS LAYER OBSERVED IN TN/AR/FAR NORTH MS.            
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT TEMPS AND TRY TO GET UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM.           
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
06                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 040815  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
906 PM MDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO FIRST PERIOD ZONES...MAINLY TO FORECAST A            
WINDSHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES AS              
SHOWN IN THE RUC2 OUTPUT. 38                                                    
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KABQ 042111  nm                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1005 AM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                      
RADAR LOOPS SHOW MAIN AREA OF PCPN RAPIDLY PULLING EWD TWDS THE COAST           
ATTM.  HOWEVER...SECONDARY WV IS EVIDENT ACRS KY/WV WITH SOME RENEWED           
PCPN/CONVECTION HEADING INTO SRN PA.  LATEST RUC OUTPUT INDICATES THAT          
THE MAJORITY OF THIS PCPN SHUD BYPASS OUR CWA TO THE S...WITH THE NRN           
FRINGES OF IT PERHAPS CATCHING OUR FAR SERN ZNS THIS AFTN.  ORIENTATION         
OF UPPER TROF/JET AXES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MRNG WUD SUPPORT        
THIS THINKING.  AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP CHC POPS ACRS THE                       
AVP/POCONO/CATSK SXNS   OTHWS...PLENTY OF LL MOIST WILL REMAIN WITH A           
FEW SPRNKLS LKLY AS THE NEXT S/WV UPSTREAM BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON THE FA         
FROM THE W LT IN THE DAY.                                                       
COOL N/NE FLOW AND LOTS OF CLDS SHUD ALLOW LTL RISE IN TEMPS TO OCCUR           
THIS AFTN.  READINGS ARE PRESENTLY MILDER SERN PTNS OF THE RGN...SO             
SOMEWHAT HIER MAX/S HERE SEEM QUT REASONABLE.                                   
WRK ZNS OUT.  FINAL RELEASE COMING SOON.                                        
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 041320  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
908 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
RW/TRW WHICH AFFECTED THE FCST AREA EARLIER WERE ASSOCIATED W/ S/WV             
& PRE-FNTL TROF WHICH HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE. MAINLY PATCHES OF DZ           
AFFECTING THE AREA ATTM. SFC CDFNT ABOUT TO EXIT THE MOUNTAINS AT               
00Z. 88D MOSAIC NOT SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE FNT W/ ONLY WEAK            
DYNAMICS ALF TO SUPPORT. 18Z MESO-ETA & LATEST RUC SHOWING A MUCH               
SLOWER SOLUTION W/ FROPA OVER THE CWA COMING LATER THAN ORIGINALLY              
PLANNED. WILL PLAN FOR OVC CONDITIONS CONTINUING & ONLY A CHC FOR A             
RW OVRNGT. SHOULDN/T SEE TEMPS DROP MORE THAN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM             
CURRENT READINGS SO INLAND TEMPS LOOK FINE. CSTL TEMPS MAY NEED TO              
BE TWEAKED UP.                                                                  
CWF...SPEEDS VERY LGT THIS EVE SO WILL DROP SLIGHTLY. WILL SPLIT                
WATERS AT LTL RVR TO RE-WORD SHIFT TO THE W AS LATE S OF LINE. WILL             
TONE DOWN PRECIP WORDING AS WELL.                                               
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 050051  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
945 AM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
NO UPDATE NEEDED. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO SERN NEAR TRIPLE            
POINT OF WEAK WAVE WITH BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN EVIDENT ACROSS NERN             
MT INTO SRN MAN. NO PRECIP APPARENT UNDER LEAF OR DEF ZONE THOUGH               
SOME CUMULIFORM CLOUDS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. LIGHT SNOW IN ECNTRL             
MAN ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SFC LOW AND WRAPPING LOW CLOUD DECK. 07Z             
RUC BRINGS WEAK ERN MT VORT MAX INTO CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
MOST FORCING REMAINING SW OF FGF CWFA. LOWER CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH               
MAN FEATURE MAY REACH DOWN TO LK OF WOODS AREA BUT PRECIP THREAT IS             
VERY SLIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN NRN ZONES MAY BE CAPPED BY HIGHER CLDS BUT            
CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE...TANGING FROM AROUND 50 ALG CAN             
BDR TO AROUND 60 NEAR SD BDR.                                                   
GENERAL TREND FOR RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH WEEK WITH NEXT            
THREAT OF PRECIP THUR-FRI. AFTER BRIEF COOL DOWN LATE IN WEEK TEMPS             
SHOULD REBOUND AS FLAT RIDGE BUILDS OVR NRN PLAINS EARLY PART OF NEW            
WEEK.                                                                           
.FGF...NONE                                                                     
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 040829  nd                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
355 AM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:                                                          
TEMPERATURES                                                                    
CLOUDS                                                                          
A FEW SURPRISE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.                
APPARENTLY THEY ARE ASSOCIATE WITH A VORT MAX SHOWN BY THE RUC.  THE            
VORT MAX SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ENDING THE THREAT             
FOR RAIN.                                                                       
NEXT PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER.  MOS CLEARS THINGS UP THIS MORNING.                
ETA LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS SHIFT CLOUD DECK SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND             
THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. SAT PICS SHOW BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS NOT              
MAKING QUICK PROGRESS SO WILL GO WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION.                      
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN PROBLEM AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD CLOUDS AND             
TSRA SINCE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR.                  
MOS DOES NOT LOOK TOO BAD FOR HIGHS TODAY.  DOES LOOK A LITTLE TOO              
WARM FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM             
AND AIR WILL BE DRY.  AFTER TONIGHT MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM ALSO BUT NOT           
FAR FROM GOING FORECAST SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO IT.                              
FCSTID = 17                                                                     
TUL   66  45  78  58 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FSM   70  40  78  52 /  10   0   0   0                                          
MLC   68  45  80  55 /  10   0   0   0                                          
BVO   65  43  78  55 /   0   0   0   0                                          
FYV   63  35  73  48 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BYV   63  35  73  48 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MIO   64  40  75  53 /   0   0   0   0                                          
MKO   66  45  78  58 /   0   0   0   0                                          
F10   66  45  78  58 /   0   0   0   0                                          
HHW   70  47  80  58 /  10   0   0   0                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
ABBAS                                                                           
--------------------                                                            
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:                                                            
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS:  NONE                                 
NGM CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
AVN CONFIDENCE:  7 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 040836  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
337 AM CDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED MODERATE TROUGHING IN PLACE               
OVER THE CENTRAL LOWER 48. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED            
THE MAIN TROF AXIS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO TX.  THE 07Z SURFACE MAP                 
INDICATED THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO THE DELAWARE/GUADALUPE                  
MOUNTAINS...TO NORTH OF FST...THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY TO WACO. THE            
LOW CLOUD/FOG SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING ALONG THE               
MTNS FROM NW OF CNM TO LVS. OTHER LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP               
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM NW OF LBB TO NORTH OF ABI.                  
FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS ARE IN STORE FOR SE/NM AND W/TX               
EAST OF THE MTNS AND NORTH OF THE PECOS. THE RUC THROUGH 18Z ALONG              
WITH THE ETA LEANS MORE TO THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE ETA/AVN NOT AS              
PREVALENT. THE ETA WAS ALSO GOING FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CENTERED OVER           
MAF THROUGH NOON. WILL NOT BUY THE PRECIP AT THIS TIME...AS SURFACE             
RH'S WERE STILL TOO DRY. 88D VAD WINDS SHOW COLD AIR NORTH OF THE               
FRONT WAS STILL SHALLOW. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT 300K FROM THE ETA                
SHOWS THIS EFFECT MOST PREVALENT FROM FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH              
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS SHOULD HANG OVER PARTS OF THE NM/TX             
PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE DUSK.                                   
SURFACE WINDS ON TUES SHOULD BECOME SELY...THEN SWLY DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING MORNING LOW CLOUDS...PRIMARILY TO OUR SE             
AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL REBUILD OVER THE SW LOWER-             
48 WITH...WITH A WARM-UP TO ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED TUES THRU MID WEEK.           
FYI..."NORMAL" HI/LO TEMPS AT KMAF TODAY ARE 81/55. THESE WARM TEMPS            
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.                                  
WILL NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. THE NAVY MODEL WAS                   
DEPICTING TROUGHING DIGGING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND AN UPPER            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEARING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. COULD MAKE FOR A             
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THEN.                                                   
IN 1ST GUESS TEMPS BELOW...WILL UNDERCUT FWC NUMBERS MOST LOCALITIES            
TODAY. DO NOT THINK TEMPS CAN RECOVER FAST AS THE NGM SUGGESTS WITH             
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE. COMMENTS ARE WELCOMED.                                
THE PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE BELOW IS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.               
OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN             
NEW MEXICO ZONE FORECAST.                                                       
MAF  77/51/86/58    0000                                                        
LSA  74/49/84/55    -000                                                        
E41  79/53/85/59    0000                                                        
6R6  80/53/85/60    0000                                                        
MRF  80/45/83/48    0000                                                        
CNM  74/50/85/55    0000                                                        
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
RSB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 040807  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
435 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
...UPDATED NW NC ZONES TO ALLOW FOR EVENING CONVECTION. RADAR                   
COMPOSITE SHOWED DEVELOPING LINE ACROSS TN. MSAS DATA INDICATED THAT            
REGION IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE....                                            
MSAS SURFACE WINDS...PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS ANALYSIS PLACED THE WAVE            
IN SW WEST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN             
KY-TN. AWIPS SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS FA.          
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SW VA AND WESTERN               
NC. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYED A NICE DRY PUNCH PUSHING INTO THE NW             
NC. REVIEW OF LDS AND KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA LOCATED SE WV AND THE SECOND                
EXITING THE FOOTHILLS AND ENTERING THE PIEDMONTS. MORNING RUN OF THE            
RUC APPEARS TO BE ON THE MARK WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN ACRS WV AND                
NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RUN OF THE MODELS YIELDED FAIRLY            
SIMILIAR SOLUTIONS. (ETA DEVELOPS ANOTHER WEAK SFC INFLECTION ALONG             
THE FRONT WHICH MAY BE QUESTIONABLE IN NATURE). AT 5H...POSITIVELY              
TILTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MARCH EAST DURING THE             
PERIOD. SFC LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD            
FRONT EAST ACROSS FA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN BY              
DAYBREAK. BEST INSTABLITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR SE ACROSS EASTERN VA-NC            
WHERE LAPS CAPE VALUES WERE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT...STRONG CAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD CLOUDS AND                
SOME DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE. WHILE EAST OF THE                          
MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT NICELY. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE A GUD              
NIGHT.                                                                          
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 041947 AMD  va                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
305 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                       
MSAS SURFACE WINDS...PRESSURE AND DEWPOINTS ANALYSIS PLACED THE WAVE            
IN SW WEST VIRGINIA WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN             
KY-TN. AWIPS SATELLITE VISIBLE LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS FA.          
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SW VA AND WESTERN               
NC. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYED A NICE DRY PUNCH PUSHING INTO THE NW             
NC. REVIEW OF LDS AND KFCX 88D LOOP SHOWED TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA LOCATED SE WV AND THE SECOND                
EXITING THE FOOTHILLS AND ENTERING THE PIEDMONTS. MORNING RUN OF THE            
RUC APPEARS TO BE ON THE MARK WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN ACRS WV AND                
NORTHERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RUN OF THE MODELS YIELDED FAIRLY            
SIMILIAR SOLUTIONS. (ETA DEVELOPS ANOTHER WEAK SFC INFLECTION ALONG             
THE FRONT WHICH MAY BE QUESTIONABLE IN NATURE). AT 5H...POSITIVELY              
TILTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MARCH EAST DURING THE             
PERIOD. SFC LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND DRAG A COLD            
FRONT EAST ACROSS FA. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN BY              
DAYBREAK. BEST INSTABLITY WILL BE OFF TO OUR SE ACROSS EASTERN VA-NC            
WHERE LAPS CAPE VALUES WERE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG. EXPECT SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT...STRONG CAA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD CLOUDS AND                
SOME DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE. WHILE EAST OF THE                          
MOUNTAINS...DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT NICELY. HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE A GUD              
NIGHT.                                                                          
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 041848  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                      
FCST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH SHRA & TSRA CONTINUING UNTIL FROPA.              
THE ONLY MODIFICATIONS TO THE FCST MAY BE TO CUT TEMPERATURES A FEW             
DEGREES AS CURRENT FCST HIGHS ARE BASED ON GETTING A LITTLE SUN THIS            
AFTN.  LATEST SAT PIX INDICATES SOLID OVC OVR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND              
THE ONLY BREAKS I SEE IN THE VISIBLE ARE OVR ERN TN/KY.  QUESTION               
NOW IS WHETHER THESE BREAKS MATERIALIZE OVR OUR CWA DURING THE AFTN.            
AT 13 UTC...SFC FRONT WAS FROM LBE-PKB-LOZ LN.  FRONTAL WAVE WAS                
ALSO EVIDENT OVER NE KY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING JUST                 
AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.  THE RUC PROGS THIS HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP                
TO MOVE ACROSS WVA AND INTO NRN VA THIS AFTN AS THE FRONTAL WAVE                
ADVANCES NE. LIKELY TO CAT POPS LOOK GOOD.                                      
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
PM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 041402  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
325 AM MDT TUE OCT 5 1999                                                       
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD MAX OUT            
NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK TODAY.  WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT WEAK                
PUSH OF NORTHERLY FLOW COULD CUT BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE                
NORTHEAST CORNER.  HOWEVER...LATEST MAPS ANALYSIS NOT REAL                      
IMPRESSIVE WITH PRESSURE RISE MAX OVER NORTH DAKOTA.  LATEST RUC                
SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL WITH SHOVE NOT EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO COLORADO.            
VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH NARY A CLOUD IN SITE.  LITTLE BREEZY IN THE               
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH 20 KTS AT 650 MB AND GOOD                   
MIXING.                                                                         
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  DRY AND WARM WX WL CONT THRU WED.  EACH OF               
THE MODELS SHOW LOW LVL TEMP GRIDS REMAINING WARM OVR THE FCST AREA             
THRU THURS MRNG AS MOD SWLY FLOW CONTS AHD OF THE APPCHG WRN U.S.               
UPR TROF.  THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE PKG IS WHETHER OR NOT HIGH               
LVL CLDNS WL DVLP.  MODELS SHOW THE 500 MB RH VALUES INCRSG WITH THE            
APPCHG TROF.  IT IS CERTAINLY REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE TROF TO HAVE             
A CERTAIN AMNT OF CLDNS...BUT IF THE TROF IS NOT AS PROGRESSIVE AS              
THE MODELS ARE FCSTG...THEN CLDS FM THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT ARRIVE                
UNTIL THURS.                                                                    
THE ONLY CHANGE I MADE TO THE FCST PACKAGE WAS TO RAISE TEMPS A                 
CATEGORY ON THURS...WHICH IS ABT AS FAR AS THE LATEST MODEL GDNC                
REACHES.  ACCORDING TO THE AVN...THE UPR TROF WL MAINTAIN A POSITIVE            
TILT AND SHOULD BE FILLING AS IT PASSES OVR CO.  THIS DOES NOT BODE             
WELL FOR ANY PCPN...EXCEPT IN THE MTNS.  THE TIMING OF A COLD SURGE             
INTO THE FCST AREA IS ALSO DIFFICULT...BUT AVN MOS GDNC INDCTS THAT             
THE COOLING WON'T BE AS DRASTIC AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  CROSS                   
SECTIONS ARE SHOWING THAT THE MSTR PASSING OVR THE STATE WL BE                  
MOSTLY UP ARND 500 MB...SO THE PREV IDEA OF ALMOST NO PCPN LUKS TO              
BE ON TRACK SO FAR.                                                             
KDRBY                                                                           
.DEN...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 050920  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 4 1999                                                      
PREV FCST SEEMS ON TRACK.  LATE AFTN RUC MODEL COMPARISON WITH SAT              
DATA...SHOWING CLEARING SKIES LINING UP WELL WITH 75-80 PCT 950 MB              
MOIST. CLRG LINE SHUD MOVE TO JUST S OF OHIO RVR TNGT AND WRN PART              
OF FA -- AND STOP -- WAITING UNTIL SFC HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EWD TWD              
RGN.                                                                            
AS A RESULT PARTIAL CLRG WRN FA LKS GOOD -- WITH CLDY SKIES E                   
PARTS. HAVE FIDDLED WITH TEMPS A BIT TNGT (MINOR ADJUSTMENTS)                   
AND MADE CLD ADJUSTMENT FOR TRANSITION INTO 2ND PD FCST.                        
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 050050  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1001 AM EDT TUE OCT 5 1999                                                      
MOST RAIN ACTIVITY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO CROSS CITY              
MOVING TO THE EAST. PER RUC...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE GA                 
THROUGH 21Z BEFORE FINALLY DROPPING EAST AND SOUTH. WILL WORD GA                
ZONES ACCORDINGLY. WILL KEEP RAIN IN FOR SE GA COAST AND DROP INLAND.           
FOR FLORIDA ZONES...WILL DROP POPS DOWN JUST A TAD AND LEAVE WINDS              
AND TEMPS ALONE.                                                                
CONTINUED MARINE TREND OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS AND                
SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.   11                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 051353  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
949 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 1999                                                       
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...IS CLOUD COVER.                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM VISIBLE AND THE 11-3.9 MICRON IR LOOP SHOWED             
CLOUDS ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN.  THE CLOUDS WERE              
INLINE WITH 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.             
THE LATEST RUC MODEL DOES SHOW THAT 850 MB MOISTURE INCREASING OVER             
PORTION OF OUR NORTHERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  PREVIOUS FORECAST            
HAD RIGHT IDEA...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST.  WL UPDATE             
ZONES TO FRESHEN WORDING.                                                       
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 050827  mn                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 5 1999                                                      
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH TEMPERATURES/WIND THE CURRENT                 
PACKAGE IS RIGHT ON TARGET.                                                     
HAVE HAD REPORTS OF TIDES 1 TO TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL THIS AM. WILL               
CONT COASTAL FLOOD WATCH DUE TO LONG FETCH OF MDT TO STG NE WND AND             
ASSCTD HIGH SEAS/SWELLS.                                                        
MARINE: NGM MSLP VERIFIED BEST AT 12Z. PGRAD WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS            
AFTN. LATEST 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES FROM NGM/ETA            
SUPPORT LOWERING BAY WNDS TO SCEC CRITERIA BUT MAINTAINING SCA                  
OFFSHR. GUSTS COULD REACH 20 KTS OVER BAYS AND 25 KTS OFFSHR.                   
85/BB                                                                           
.CRP...SCA OFFSHORE WTRS.                                                       
       COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR TXZ242>247-GMZ230-GMZ235-GMZ250-GMZ255           
       THROUGH TODAY.                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 051458  tx