AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
845 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
HAD A FEW STRONG T-STORMS IN THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING                      
ESPECIALLY IN A MERGER OF STORMS SOUTH OF MTH. ACTIVITY HAS ENDED               
ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE            
MARQUESAS...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER AND NEAR CUBA.                  
NO BOUNDARIES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE OR RADAR AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR              
AHEAD OF TUTT LOW IN ATLANTIC IS STARING TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST.            
THIS IS EVIDENT IN EVENING SOUNDING WHICH SHOWS A DROP OF .20 INCHES            
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SINCE LAST EVENING (DOWN TO 1.8 INCHES). 21Z              
RUC ALSO SHOWS DECREASING MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY TONIGHT WITH LESS              
THAN 60% AFTER 06Z. SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING NEAR ANDROS                    
ISLAND...BUT I AM CONSIDERING LOWERING POPS TO WIDELY SCATTERED FOR             
TONIGHT AND IF I DO I WOULD ALSO RAISE TEMPS WITH LESS RAIN-COOLED              
AIR TAKING PLACE.                                                               
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OFF CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SO WILL                 
MAINTAIN VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT.                                       
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY IN AHEAD OF TUTT LOW...SO NO            
HIGHER THAN 20 OR 30% POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS PER                   
CURRENT ZONE AND LFP FORECASTS.                                                 
WIND AT C-MAN SITES ONLY AROUND 10 KTS LATELY. EVENING EYW SOUNDING             
HAS ONLY NEAR 10 KTS IN BOUNDARY LAYER AND 21Z RUC SHOWS WIND                   
INCREASING TO ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER WIND IN MARINE            
PORTION OF LFP TO NO HIGHER THAN 10 TO 15 KTS AND SUGGEST MIA DO THE            
SAME IN THEIR CWF.                                                              
.EYW...NONE.                                                                    
MOHLIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 150003  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
240 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF                 
DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF STATIONARY FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO..NORTHERN FL...AND EASTERN            
GA.  88DS SHOWING ONLY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS REMAINING OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA AND COASTAL WATERS.  MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS                    
MORNING HAS BEEN WEAKER AND LESS RAINFALL EFFICIENT THAN TUE.                   
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE UPPER            
TROF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS IT SHEARS NORTHEASTWARD. LATEST              
RUC KEEPS VORTICITY AXIS FROM SRN MS TO SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS           
EVENING..BUT WEAKENS THIS UPPER ENERGY BY LATE TONIGHT..WHILE AT THE            
SAME TIME DECREASING THE RH SOMEWHAT OVER THE CWA.  BOTTOM LINE..               
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE A LITTLE..BUT STILL EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR              
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH BOUNDARY                   
WEAKENING OUT OF THE PICTURE..AND LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO REMAIN            
SOUTHERLY..LOOK FOR BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ON THU.             
TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE ON TRACK TODAY..FWC AND FAN CLOSE AND                  
MOSTLY ACCEPTED.  I RECOMMEND ADJUSTING HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.             
FAN POPS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH..RECOMMEND SLIGHT CHANCE THU FOR AL AND             
GA..GOOD CHANCE FOR BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE.                                     
TLH 71/90 71/91 2424                                                            
PFN 73/88 74/89 2424                                                            
DHN 70/90 71/91 2323                                                            
ABY 70/88 71/90 2322                                                            
VLD 70/89 71/90 2323 16                                                         
AFD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 141835  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM ATLANTIC.                
CENTER AT 7/15 00Z NEAR CHS.  SECOND UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER N TX.             
WEAK TROUGH AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE CENTERS ACROSS AL AND WEST               
GA.  MODELS SHOW WESTWARD BUILDING OF ATLANTIC RIDGE INTO SE U.S.               
NEXT 48 HOURS...WHILE TX RIDGE WEAKENS AS SECONDARY RIDGE BUILDS                
OVER OHIO VALLEY REGION.  BY 12Z FRI...LARGE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES                
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR SE U.S.  TROUGH PRETTY MUCH REMAINS IN                 
PLACE OVER S AL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SLOWLY FILLS.  ALL THESE                 
FACTORS POINT TO A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER FOR GA.             
AT THE SURFACE...RICH SURFACE BASED MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CREEP                 
NORTHWARD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND IS                 
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH.  LAPS AND                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 70+ DEWPOINTS HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS               
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ATL METROPOLITAN AREA.                             
MEANWHILE...MODELS SHOW MEAN 1000-500MB MOIST AXIS THAT HAS REMAINED            
OVER SE SECTIONS OF GA BEGINNING TO WANE AS RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD               
AND MOISTURE CREEPS NORTHWARD.  WHILE MOISTURE PLENTIFUL...DOES NOT             
APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR            
PCPN TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.                                                       
NOTED AN INTERESTING FEATURE THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING FRIDAY                     
EVENING.  MRF DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING                  
AROUND THE SE/S SIDE OF BUILDING OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC                       
RIDGE AT 00Z SAT WHICH WOULD AFFECT N GA.  THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR              
TO 7/6/99 WHEN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED N GA.  THIS             
WILL BEAR WATCHING BY LATER SHIFTS FOR SUCH POTENTIAL.                          
FOR THE SHORT RANGE...OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF "EVENING" WORDING...FEEL            
THAT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO LOW.  DEWPOINTS 70 TO 75              
(EVEN 77 AT VLD) NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF GA...WITH 65 TO              
70 DEWPOINTS NORTHERN ONE-THIRD.  CLEARLY COLD AIR WEDGE HAS ERODED             
ALL SECTIONS.  WILL BUMP UP LOWS ONE-CATEGORY IN MANY AREAS.  LOW               
AND MID-CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SE HALF OF STATE PER              
RUC PREDICTIONS.  JUST SCT HIGH CLOUDS NW SECTIONS.  HOWEVER...IN               
THE NW...FOG AND HAZE ARE ONCE AGAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND THIS             
SHOULD ONLY GET WORSE OVERNIGHT.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SE              
OR CALM TONIGHT.  SE-S FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT              
APPEARS BERMUDA HIGH IS LOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.           
NO CHANGES TO OTHER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.                                       
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
RAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 141901  ga                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1010 AM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
AS THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OVER NORTH GA ERODES THIS AFTERNOON...               
SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL REQUIRE SOME UPWARD                
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE. BUT OVER THE CENTRAL AND                
SOUTH...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE 8 AM RUC               
MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT ANOTHER WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT IN                  
SOUTHWEST GA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING            
SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST                   
RECEDES. THE ZONE UPDATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHOW AN INCREASE              
IN RAIN CHANCES TO 60 PERCENT SOUTHWEST AND 50 PERCENT CENTRAL.                 
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
SCHAUB                                                                          
 ga                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
930 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE              
DROPPING SOUTHEAST THRU NORTHERN WISCONSIN HELPED INCREASE LOW-LEVEL            
WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LIFT FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND           
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING           
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO ABERDEEN SOUTH                 
DAKOTA AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ALL OF THIS NOW LIFTING           
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING. LOOKS LIKE MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WILL BE              
WELL WEST OF THE AREA ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TONIGHT.              
MCS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS                    
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT AFFECT DES MOINES FORECAST AREA. WILL REMOVE           
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHTS FORECAST.                                
WRAP AROUND STABLE AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA FROM                  
MISSOURI PER ETA AND RUC THIS EVENING WILL ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR           
ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD OR INTO THE AREA TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION.                  
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
TC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 141948  ia                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
325 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
NOTICE TO USERS...EFFECTIVE THURSDAY JULY 15 1999 AT 1100 AM CDT THE            
PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT... STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...             
BE CHANGED. THE NEW NWWS ID WILL BE NEWAFDNEW AND THE NEW WMO HEADING           
WILL BE FXUS64. THE NEW MASS MEDIA HEADER WILL BE... AREA FORECAST              
FORECAST DISCUSSION.                                                            
WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVERLAYED WITH RUC ANALYZED VORTICITY SHOW                    
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION              
SW ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO SE LA. ALSO... A WEAK 500 MB LOW WAS                  
ANALYZED THIS MORNING NEAR SLIDELL. DRY SUBSIDING AIR WAS NOTED                 
ACROSS LA/SE MS WHILE MUCH THE REMAINDER WAS IN A POCKET OF HIGHER              
MOISTURE AND A MID LEVEL COLD POOL. EVEN WITH THE DRY AIRMASS...                
DAYTIME HEATING AND MARGINAL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS              
AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS SE LA AND SW MS.                    
AT THE SAME TIME...A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH WAS NOTED IN THE TROPICAL            
EASTERLIES FROM THE WRN YUCATAN PENINSULA NE INTO THE E CENTRAL                 
GULF...MOVING STEADILY WEST.  SURFACE MAPS SHOW WAS SHOWING HINTS OF            
A WARM FRONT FROM EXTENDING ACROSS ERN LA/WRN MS EARLIER TODAY...AND            
THERE IS STILL QUITE A LARGE TEMP DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN RAIN COOLED             
AIR OVER CENTRAL MS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUN IN SURROUNDING                  
AREAS. SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT ALLOWING                   
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A FEW                
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY MOS.                               
FOR THE FORECAST...WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO FAIRLY DEEP SOUTHERLY               
FLOW AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS UPPER HIGH PRES REPLACES THE             
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND GULF TROUGH               
MOVES WEST. ANOTHER SEPARATE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE            
EXTREME NE GULF WHICH WILL HELP STEER EASTERLY WAVE TYPE SYSTEMS                
INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. OVERALL...LIKE THE ETA'S                
IDEA OF BRINGING SCATTERED COVERAGE CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME SE                
ZONES BY THU AFTERNOON... CONTINUING WITH NORMAL TYPE NOCTURNAL                 
CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST THU NIGHT...THEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH              
SCATTERED (40 TO 50 PERCENT) COVERAGE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI.             
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CARRY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...PREFER            
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER AVN MOS NUMBERS. LCH AND SHV AFD                 
NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS FINAL FULL DAY BEFORE ZONE FORECAST/LONG             
FUSE WARNING SERVICE TRANSFER.                                                  
SHV 72/93/72/92 0001  MLU 71/92/71/91 1001  LCH 72/90/73/90 0113                
BTR 70/91/72/89 0214  MCB 68/91/70/91 1214  GPT 73/91/75/89 0325                
.NEW...NONE.                                                                    
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
22                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 141940  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
LATEST WV LOOP INDICATES FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG ESEWD THRU                 
CNTRL ONTARIO...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST CURRENT MODEL FCSTS...              
ALG WNWLY FLOW ALF DOWNSTREAM OF MAJOR PAC NW TROF AND RDG AXIS OVR             
NRN PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE WRN GRT LKS ARE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MID LVL         
QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV. 00Z SFC CHART SHOWS CWA              
REMAINS IN WARM...MOIST SWLY FLOW ARND HI PRES NR NEW ENGLAND. WARM             
FNT LOCATED JUST S OF CWA-WI BORDER...AND SFC DWPTS TO S OF BNDRY AS            
HI AS 75 IN NW WI. ALTHOUGH LAPS ANAL SHOWS CAPES AS HI AS 3000-4000            
J/KG OVR NW WI IN AREA WHERE LATEST RUC/MESOETA FCST SOME H85-5                 
QVECTOR CNVGC ON SRN PERIPHERY OF ONTARIO SHRTWV...88D LOOPS                    
INDICATE TSRA CONFINED TO FAR NW WI S OF LK SUP. THIS AREA AT NOSE              
OF H85 THETA-E MAX AND NR INTERSECTION POINT OF WARM FNT...LK BREEZE            
BNDRY AND COLD FNT AHD OF DRIER AIR ACRS NRN MN AND ON SRN FLANK OF             
NWLY H3 JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO SHRTWV. TSRA ARE MOVG SLOWLY            
ESEWD ALG WARM FNT. STRG CAP/HI MID LVL TEMPS INDICATED ON 00Z                  
GRB/INL/MPX SDNGS APRNTLY TOO SGNFT FOR THESE DYNAMICS XCPT WHERE               
INTERSECTING BNDRYS PROVIDING ENUF LIFT. 00Z GOES SOUNDER CIN SHOWS             
-100 J/KG TO BE OVERCOME ACRS WRN CWA (COMPARED TO -2 ACRS FAR NW               
WI). ONLY FLAT SC OBSVD OVR CWA LATE THIS AFTN AS WARM AND MOIST                
FLOW TRAPPED UNDER CAP. 01Z SFC DWPTS ACRS CWA GENERALLY IN 60S                 
UNDER SLOWLY DSPTG CU/SC. CONSIDERABLE ANVIL DEBRIS FM NW WI TSRA               
MOVG ACRS SW ZNS IN WNWLY FLOW ALF.                                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA. 18Z MESOETA                     
INDICATES CWA TO REMAIN IN POSITIVE H85 THETA-E ADVCTN OVRNGT AND               
THAT DRYING ACRS NRN MN/SW ONTARIO WL NOT REACH FA...IN GOOD                    
AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SFC FLOW ON COOL SIDE OF BNDRY. BUT H85 FLOW                
PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND BCM INCRSGLY ACYC OVRNGT UNDER INCRSG NVA IN              
WAKE OF ONTARIO SHRTWV...WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS CAP STRENGTH. SINCE               
MSTR INFLOW WL BE WEAKENING OVRNGT AND LK BREEZE BNDRY ALSO APPEARED            
INSTRUMENTAL IN POPPING TSRA ACRS NW WI...XPCT CURRENT TSRA TO DSPT             
IN NEXT FEW HRS WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION. WL RESTRICT MENTION OF                 
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA TO FAR SW BORDER ZNS AS CNVCTN CONTS TO DRIFT               
ESE NR WARM FNT BEFORE DSPTG. QUICK LOOK AT 88D SHOWS ISOLD TSRA OVR            
IRON COUNTY.                                                                    
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS ATTM ARE A BIT HIER THAN FCST MIN TEMPS...LATEST             
LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS WL FALL OFF LATER WITH INCRSG DNVA                
ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLR AND LO LVL FLOW TO BCM WEAKER/MORE ACYC.              
XPCT MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LWR THAN CURRENT DWPTS...SO WL KEEP                
MENTION OF PTCHY FOG LATE.                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 150147  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
902 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST STLT              
AND RADAR TRENDS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE                    
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EAST UPPER MICHIGAN AND STRAITS AREA          
WITH GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING. UPPER LEVEL TROF AND VORT MAX            
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN UPPER... ALREADY BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP           
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MQT. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING IN A RIBBON OF          
16C 850 DEW PT AIR AND 850/700 QVECTOR FORCING. THIS AIRMASS AND                
FORCING PROGGED BY THE RUC TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER           
PENINSULA TONIGHT... AFFECTING SSM AND STRAITS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.            
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ONCE CURRENT RAINFALL NOW SOUTH OF         
M-72... EXITS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA... WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY              
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NO PCPN AS BEST 850 MOISTURE POOL AND DYNAMICS         
STAY NORTH. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF EVENING SHOWING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES OVERNIGHT MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.                                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 142011  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
857 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKED              
ON A LINE FROM NEAR DLH TO HON. ADAP CHARTS SHOW MAIN FOCUS ON THE              
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL SD WITH ANOTHER AREA OVER                    
NORTHERN WI. THIS PLACES SOUTHERN MN IN A RATHER DIFLUENT LOW LEVEL             
FLOW. BEST H8-H3 THICKNESS DIFLUENCE IS OVER NORTHERN WI THROUGH                
15/06Z. 00Z RUC ALSO SHOWING THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE AT 00Z EXTENDING             
FROM WESTERN LSUP TO CENTRAL MN. KMPX RAOB RATHER DRY ABOVE 800 MB              
WITH QUITE A BIT OF WESTERLY FLOW NOTED BETWEEN 800 AND 500 MB.                 
RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA RUNS ALL POINT TO STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION                     
DEVELOPING ACROSS SD THIS EVENING AND SPREADING INTO ND OVERNIGHT               
WITH AN EXTENSION SE INTO CENTRAL MN. 700 MB RIDGING ALSO INCREASES             
OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN                    
SECTIONS BETWEEN 12 AND 14 DEG C. IN SUMMARY...WILL REMOVE                      
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO            
MINNEAPOLIS TO EAU CLAIRE DUE TO MORE STABILITY. WILL KEEP A SMALL              
POP TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE              
E-W ORIENTED DURING THE NIGHT.                                                  
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 142028  mn                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
840 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
A POCKET OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ARE COMBINING              
WITH A RETURNING WARM FRONT TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CENTRAL MS. THE 09Z RUC SEEMS TO MOVE THE                  
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL SEWD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE                     
GRADUALLY DRYING IT UP. HAVE UPDATED THE W CENTRAL ZONES TO REFLECT             
THE SHOWERS BY ADDING A MORNING GROUP - HOPEFULLY THIS FLY IN THE               
OINTMENT WILL DIE QUIETLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
QPF DISCUSSION: LOOK FOR AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH IN             
THE UPDATED AREA AS RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATING A FEW PIXELS OF MORE             
THAN ONE INCH JUST NW OF KTVR. WILL AMEND QPF FORECAST FOR FIRST                
SIX HOURS IN THE UPDATED AREA.                                                  
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
 ms                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
915 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE            
REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL              
HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DRIER            
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF             
THE MOIST AIR OFF TO THE EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.                                                         
DISCUSSION...UPPER CIRCULATION SEEN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY OVER SWRN LINCOLN COUNTY MOVING STEADILY EWD. 12Z RUC                   
DEPICTED THIS NICELY ON ITS 3HR FORECAST. THE RUC SHOWS THE MAIN                
VORTICITY CENTER MOVING OFF INTO SWRN UT BY 00Z WITH ANOTHER WEAKER             
CENTER DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EXTREME NRN CLARK COUNTY DURING THE           
SAME TIME PERIOD. THE NEW RUC IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AND SEEMS TO HAVE           
A POOR INITIAL PANEL ON THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IT TAKES THE CENTER               
FARTHER S INTO NCNTRL AZ BY 03Z WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER INTO                  
EXTREME NWRN MOHAVE COUNTY BY 03Z. THIS SEEMS TO BE ON ONLY FOCUS FOR           
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER SHEAR TODAY           
AS NW FLOW TO 30KTS AT H5 DEVELOPS AND S TO SW FLOW AT SURFACE AND              
850MBS AROUND 15KTS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY IN MOST            
AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL OK FOR NWRN AZ AS MID LEVEL TROUGH               
AXIS SHOULD BE RUNNING THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE           
TO RELY ON TRAINING OR JUST VERY STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE FLOODING.             
FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS             
LATER THIS MORNING AND ROLL THROUGH THE CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.              
AFTERNOON CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES TO                
MINUS 4 OR 5 SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH NO               
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM FOR THE VALLEY WILL HAVE TO               
KEEP AN EYE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FEW COULD BE QUITE STRONG BUT               
WITH OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH. NO UPDATES PLANNED AS OF             
NOW. SKRBAC                                                                     
.LAS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO THE                 
LATEST RNOFFALAS STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 141603  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
938 AM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
S/WV SLOWLY ROTATING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION IS PROGGED BY THE 09Z             
RUC TO CONT MOVE SLOWLY NE AND AWAY FROM THE FA. BEST LIFT FROM                 
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL NC TO THE N WITH ONLY WEAK LIFT             
PROGGED ACROSS THE FA. LATEST MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TO AREAS OF               
WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FNT. ONE OVER NE NC WILL             
CONT AWAY FROM THE AREA WHILE THE SECOND IN THE VICINITY OF FAY IS              
HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN AREA FOR INLAND SECTIONS. THE OLD FRONT HAS             
SHIFTED JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC INDICATES THE FNT              
SHOULD DRIFT INLAND AGAIN THIS AFTN. WITH THE FNT IN THE AREA AND               
SOME MOISTURE CONV PROGGED TO OCCUR ALONG IT WILL CONT POPS AS IS               
FOR THE AFTN. VIS SATL IS SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER               
ALONG THE COAST SO WILL GO WITH M/CLOUDY FOR ALL THE COASTAL                    
REGION. NOT MUCH TEMP RISE EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER              
SO CURRENT TEMP FCSTS LOOK REASONABLE.                                          
CWF: CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF               
THE FRONT. ONLY PLANNED CHANGES ARE TO THE NC WATERS. ESTIMATED 10              
METER WIND FROM FPSN7 IS ONLY 7KT AT 13Z SO WILL LOWER WIND SPEEDS              
AND SEAS AND COMBINE ALL ZONES INTO ONE GROUP.                                  
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
IRELAND                                                                         
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
905 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
NO UPDATE PLANNED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVR NRN RRV IS SLOWLY DRIFTING            
EAST ALG THE NRN MN BORDER...WELL HANDELED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. NRLY             
FLOW INTO FGF CWA HAS STABILIZED LOW LEVELS FOR THE EVENING. LATE               
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING...STILL EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO                
AREA. LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED LAST FEW HOURS INTO            
CNTRL SD WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM HON NWD TO THE ND               
BDR. 00Z RUC PUSHES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE INO SCNTRL ND BY 06Z              
AND INTO NRN RRV BY 12Z...WITH ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL SURGE.                 
CURRENT TEMPS AND PCPN TIMING ARE GOOD.                                         
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 142038  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
952 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
...CLOUD COVER/-TSRA CHANCE SE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTN...                   
AREA OF LOW CLOUD ON VIS PIC THIS AM INDICATES THIS HANGING ALONG               
WEAK TROF LINE SEPARATING NORTH SFC FLO FROM EAST. PRES RISES                   
SINKING INTO CENTRAL ND PER MSAS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD MASS/TROF TO                
CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY S THRU AFTN. BEHIND TROF IS TEMPORARY AREA OF            
MORE STABILILTY (RUC FORECASTING LI/S TO JUMP ABOVE ZERO WEST OF RRV            
BY LATE AFTN) AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER CWA IN RESPONSE              
TO U/L LOW DIGGING IN PAC NW. NVA SPREADING IN ALONG WITH ADVECTION             
OF SLIGHTLY LOWER TD/S FROM MB/CENTRAL SHOULD INHIBIT COVENCTIVE                
CHANCE MUCH OF CWA EVEN AFTER SFC HEATING COMMENCES WHEN CLOUDS MOVE            
OUT.                                                                            
ONE CONCERN WOULD BE SE CWA WHERE POOL OF TD/S NEAR 70F EXIST AND               
HEATING ONGOING. AS WEAK SFC LO NOW OVER NE SD MOVES EAST...SOME LOW            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SWING INTO SCNTRL MN ALTHO UPPER SUPPORT                 
LACKING WITH JET SHIFTING BACK TO THE NW OVER SASK. MODEL SOUNDINGS             
FOR THAT AREA DO KEEP LI/S NEAR -6 THIS AFTN...WITH WITH CAPES OVER             
2000 J/KG. H7 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR +12C UNDER RIDGE BUT BEST CAPPING              
INVERSION PROBABLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA BORDER. WIND PROFILE VERY WEAK             
UP THRU 7KFT AND SHEAR NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO NOT LOOKING FOR ORGANIZED            
STORMS BUT ANY THAT DO FORM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH JUICE IN PLACE             
AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR.                                                    
WILL CHANGE WORDING FOR SW CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING THRU AND            
ADD CHANCE -TSRA SE ZONES FOR AFTN UPDATE. THINKING OF LOWERING                 
TEMPS JUST A TAD N/NW ZONES WITH THE WEAK CAA INTRUSION AND CLOUD               
COVER THIS AM HOLDING NUMBERS DOWN SLIGHTLY.                                    
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 140900 AMD  nd                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
848 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLIES MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS OH VALLEY                
TONIGHT. NC MOUNTAINS TO COME UNDER PVA AFTER 06Z. VERY LIGHT                   
SHOWERS PERSISTING NEAR TN BORDER AND BLUE RIDGE PER KGSP RADAR.                
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS NC MOUNTAINS. DEW POINTS CREEPING UP IN                  
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LATE ARRIVAL                 
OF OH VALLEY WAVE NOT FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION SC/GA OR NC                      
PIEDMONT. WILL DROP POPS METRO CLT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A                    
CATEGORY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH WITH MORE MOISTURE. CURRENT                
FORECAST MINIMUMS APPEAR ON TRACK. MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE                 
FOG AS WELL THOUGH WINDS STILL UP A BIT.                                        
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 141853  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1015 AM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUD COVER             
CORRESPONDING NICELY TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER JET THIS MORNING. THE JET         
AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR        
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...WHICH THE            
09Z RUC AND 03Z ETA MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A             
RESULT...THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE UNDER A REGION OF WEAK         
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT CENTER AND IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF            
THE JET. MODIFYING THE RAOB FROM FFC YIELDS MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 500             
J/KG OWING TO A WARM LAYER AT MID LEVELS. ALTHO THE 03Z ETA SHOWS A             
MODEL CAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPSTATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON...BELIEVE THIS IS OVERDONE AS THE ETA ALSO BRINGS SURFACE             
DEWPOINTS BACK UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES F...WHICH LOOKS TOO HIGH. THIS           
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT PRECIP CHANCES ARE MINIMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE          
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 03Z ETA DOES SHOW A CENTER OF                 
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AT LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS               
AFTERNOON...BUT THAT COULD ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUESTIONABLE             
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AGREE WITH MRX THAT 09Z RUC QPF IS OVERDONE ACROSS           
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A SMALL PRECIP CHANCE IN THE            
MOUNTAINS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA WHICH REMAINS           
ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE JET. HOWEVER...WILL MAKE A BOLD MOVE AND               
ELIMINATE PRECIP CHANCE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF UPSTATE SC.            
THE DEATH OF THE WEDGE MAKES THE TEMP FORECAST TRICKY. SINCE I LACK ANY         
NEW INSIGHT...WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE.                                           
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 141403  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
332 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
HIGH BASED TSRA DANCING THRU CWA THROUGH ERLY AFTN...WELL ABV SIG               
LOW LVL CAP...AND WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS INSTABILITY / 1-1.5KJ/KG /             
THAN ANY SURFACE BASED...EVAPOTRANSPIRATICALLY ENHANCED...PARCEL.               
MAIN BULK OF TSRA FORMED ON LEADING EDGE OF SUBTROP MSTR PLUME                  
COMING AROUND CNTRL US RIDGE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPCIAL WAVE              
LIFTING AROUND RIDGE INTO CNTRL UT ATTM...SQUEEZING AHEAD OF MAIN               
WRLY FLOW CIRC IN BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                             
SUBTLETIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS FCST.  OVERALL...ETA BLEND WITH            
AVN SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.  ETA LTL STG TO INITIAL LEE SIDE DVLPMT               
TDA.  NOT TOO PLEASED WITH ANY MDL HANDLING OF SHORT RANGE                      
FEATURES...EVEN RUC.  SEEMS THAT MID LVL MSTR PLUME HAS FALLED                  
BETWEEN THE CRACKS IN GUIDANCE...THEREFORE UNDERESTIMATING THE                  
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT.  STLT SOUNDINGS TO THE               
RESCUE...AND POTENTIAL CORRECTLY CAPTURED WITH PROGGED BASES ABV                
12K.  18Z RUC DOES ADVERTISE AN E TO W THETA E RIDGE ABV CAP...                 
COLLOCATED WITH AN AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ACRS CWA AND                  
LIFTING SLOWLY NWRD THRU 06Z.  WHILE THREAT THRU SERN CWA SEEMS                 
MINIMAL...CANNOT IGNORE CURRENT HAPPENINGS...AND WL CARRY A LOW POP             
EARLY.                                                                          
DEEPENING LOW TO NW WL HELP TO PULL SOME WARMER MID LVL AIR INTO MIX            
LTR TNGT AND INTO THU AFTN.  AFTER THREAT OF SOME ELEVATED ACTION               
N ON LEADING EDGE WARMING WITH LLJ...SHOULD QUIET DOWN UNTIL SIG                
SUBTROP WAVE ENCROACHES FM W.  JET LIFT BECOMES MUCH MORE FAVORABLE             
BY 00Z...AND WL COMPROMISE A BIT BTWN FASTER AVN/SLOWER ETA.  POOLING           
OF INSTABILITY...AND SIG COOLING OF TMPS AROUND CAP LVL FCST BY 00Z             
WOULD MAKE ONE BELIVE THAT A SIG CONVECTIVE EVENT COULD INITIATE ARND           
JAMES RVR LATE IN DAY. NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSED BY SHEAR...BUT INSTABILITY        
AND STRENGTH OF MID LVL FLOW SHUD BRING CHC OF FEW STORMS TO BECOME             
SVR THU NGT...ESPLY WITH EARLY AND MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENTS  MORE             
CONCERN WOULD BE WITH THREAT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS BNDRY WL BE QUITE           
SLOW MOVING...AND PWATS OVER 1.25 IN.                                           
FNT CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER AND SLOWER WITH EACH RUN...AND LTST AVN WHILE        
TOO SLOW...DOENST EVEN GET FRONT MUCH PAST 12Z/16 ETA POSN BY 00Z/17.           
WL PLAY ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY...WITH LINGERING CHC TSRA.                   
EXTENDED RANGE...OVERALL...AFTER SHORT RANGE TROUGH FLATTENS RIDGE              
SOMEWHAT...SEE AGREEMENT AT LEAST ON REBUILDING RIDGE BACK TO W WITH            
SLIGHT RETROGRESSION FM POSITION EARLY IN WEEKEND.  HTS REMAIN RELATIVELY       
HIGH AND WL HAVE A FAVORABLE JET/FRONT CONFIGURATION FOR PCPN THROUGHOUT        
THE PERIOD AS LOW LVL SRLY FLOW IMPINGES ON BNDRY...ESPLY SAT NGT AND           
AGAIN DURG MON.  PERIOD LEAST LIKELY FOR PCPN APPRS TO BE MUCH OF               
LTR SUNDAY.  FOR NOW...WATCH OUT FOR THE SPLATTER...FOR THE BROAD               
BRUSH WILL RULE.  NATIONAL GUIDANCE LTL HELP...AS IS REGURGITATION OF           
FMR OUTPUT...AGAIN.                                                             
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 142021 AMD  sd                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
943 AM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
KMRX 88D INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST                    
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN           
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU (ALSO IDENTIFIED BY KHTX 88D). 12Z MSAS                  
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE                
WESTERN CWA INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE (WELL CORRELATED WITH MOISTURE               
AXIS)...AND HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION EVIDENT FARTHER SOUTHEAST                 
(CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA/NORTHWEST SOUTH                   
CAROLINA).                                                                      
IN TERM OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA...09Z RUC AND 03Z MESO-ETA SHIFT               
H5 DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS                 
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS HALT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY EARLIER SYNOPTIC MODELS.                   
LOW-LAYER OMEGA FIELDS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH APPROACHING H5 SYSTEM...             
AND FEEL THAT 09Z RUC QPF OVERDONE. ALSO...H10/5 MOISTURE PROGS                 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN...MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SO IN              
THE SOUTHERN CWA.                                                               
THUS...A ZONE UPDATE WILL INTRODUCE OR INCREASE POPS NORTH CWA TO 30            
PERCENT...20 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY               
CLOUDY ALL BUT SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND                
PLATEAU...WHERE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IS A GOOD COMPROMISE.                    
FURTHERMORE...WILL LOWER MAXES SOME...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN              
CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 80.                                
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 141343  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
943 AM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
KMRX 88D/S INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST                  
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING...AND A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN           
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU (ALSO IDENTIFIED BY KHTX 88D). 12Z MSAS                  
DEPICTION CONTINUES TO REVEAL WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE                
WESTERN CWA INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE (WELL CORRELATED WITH MOISTURE               
AXIS)...AND HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION EVIDENT FARTHER SOUTHEAST                 
(CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR NORTHEAST GEORGIA/NORTHWEST SOUTH                   
CAROLINA).                                                                      
IN TERM OF THE LATEST MODEL DATA...09Z RUC AND 03Z MESO-ETA SHIFT               
H5 DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW INTO SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS                 
AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS HALT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON...PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY EARLIER SYNOPTIC MODELS.                   
LOW-LAYER OMEGA FIELDS NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH APPROACHING H5 SYSTEM...             
AND FEEL THAT 09Z RUC QPF OVERDONE. ALSO...H10/5 MOISTURE PROGS                 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IN...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN                
CWA.                                                                            
THUS...A ZONE UPDATE WILL INTRODUCE OR INCREASE POPS NORTH CWA TO 30            
PERCENT...20 PERCENT CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY               
CLOUDY ALL BUT SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND                
PLATEAU...WHERE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IS A GOOD COMPROMISE.                    
FURTHERMORE...WILL LOWER MAXES SOME...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN              
CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 80.                                
DM                                                                              
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1037 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
SFC TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY IN ERN NM WITH SSE WINDS ACROSS THE             
PNHDLS.  LATEST RUC/NGM/ETA FCSTG TROUGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO           
WRN PART OF PNHDL BY DAYBREAK.  THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO BACK           
WINDS AROUND TO S IN THE WEST AND S TO SE IN CNTRL AND ERN ZONES.               
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 150236 AMD  tx                                  

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
930 AM MDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL COVER MOST OF UTAH TODAY FOR                  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. A COLD             
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO UTAH TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE NORTH PORTION.            
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF THE FRONT THURSDAY             
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH.           
DISCUSSION...TWO SHORT WAVES TO AFFECT CWFA TODAY.  BOTH BEST                   
CORRESPOND TO 12Z RUN OF RUC WITH 300MB VORTICITY.  ONE EAST OF RNO             
TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST UTAH BY 00Z.  ONE IN SOUTHWEST UTAH TO SWEEP             
ACROSS STATE AND BE NEAR VEL BY 00Z.  BOTH PROMISE TO LIFT MOIST                
AIRMASS AND MAKE FOR ACTIVE DAY.                                                
SLC 771  CDC 853                                                                
.SLC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOON TIL 8PM MOST OF CFWA EXCEPT NW AND SW             
CORNERS.                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KSLC 140956  ut                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
857 PM EDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
FEW SHRA ALONG THE WRN RIDGES HAVE FADED PER LOSS OF HEATING WITH               
LAST VIS PICS INDICATING LOTS OF BREAKS IN LOW DECK ACRS WVA/VA                 
ATTM. EVE RAOBS SHOW PLENTY OF LOW LVL RH REMAINING HOWEVER...AND               
QUEST OVRNGT IS HOW EXTENSIVE LOW CLDNS AND FOG/-DZ WILL BE TOWARD              
MORN. ALTHOUGH BREAKS MAY ALLOW BETTER COOLING TOWARD                           
SATURATION...SLGTLY DRIER DEWPTS SEEN ACROSS THE FAR WEST/NORTH                 
SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT CVRG THERE A BIT. ELSW...WILL LKLY SEE FILLING              
IN OF CLDNS GIVEN LGT ELY TRAJ AND LINGERING COOL WEDGE. OTRW FOG               
STAB NUMBERS OFF RAOBS ALSO NOT TOO IMPRES FOR MORE THAN PTCHY FOG              
AND LTL -DZ. EXCEPTION NW NC WHERE CONTG LGT UPSLOPE WILL KEEP MORE             
LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE PER LATEST RUC BLYR RH/FCST RAOBS. PLAN TO            
TWEAK SKY COVER TO MORE PC FLAVOR NRN TIER AND REMOVE MENTION OF                
POPS ELSW OVRNGT...OTRW MAINLY CLDY WITH SOME FOG RE-DVLPG. WILL                
ALSO ADJUST THU PRD FOR MORE SUN PTNL GIVEN LACK OF DEEP RH BUT CONT            
SHRA THREAT WITH WEAK VORT AND HEATING OF SFC RH. MAY LOWER TEMPS A             
NOTCH TNGT PER SOME CLRG EARLY AND BUMP UP IN SPOTS THU.                        
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 141911  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
340 AM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD.                   
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LOW IN NORTHCENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT             
EAST INTO CENTRAL WI. SHRA/TSRA WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH HALF          
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT...IN AN AREA OF DECENT MOISTURE            
ADVECTION/LIFT ON THE 305-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. 00Z ETA AND 03Z RUC         
DEPICT THIS VERY WELL. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW REMAINED IN SOUTHWEST        
ONTARIO TO CENTRAL SD. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO POOL AHEAD OF THE COLD             
FRONT AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY EARLY THIS           
MORNING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI.                                
00Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITNIALIZED WELL AND ARE IN REASONABLE                 
AGREEMENT THRU 48HRS...THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THEIR QPF FIELDS. NGM              
DOING BEST WITH QPF THIS MORNING...ETA WITH BEST DEPICTION OF LOWER AND         
MID LEVEL FORCING/LIFTING.                                                      
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA          
BY 12Z. HOWEVER A WEAK 5H TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS WI INTO           
SOUTHEAST MN AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER IN         
ADVANCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S.                
00Z ETA/NGM INDICATE 850-700MB Q-G FORCING...WARM ADVECTION AND                 
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY           
INTO THIS EVENING. AS DIURNAL HEATING DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS...               
APPEARS A LEAST A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA IN ORDER FOR            
THE FORECAST AREA. QUESTION IS STRENGTH OF 7H CAPPING FOR LATER TODAY.          
CAP LOOKS STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IA/IL AND MARGINAL ACROSS               
SOUTHERN MN/CENTAL WI.                                                          
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND CONVECTION               
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE PAST 24HRS...WILL RAISE POPS INTO SLIGHT            
CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORIES FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. RIDGING/CAPPING SHOULD BE           
IN PLACE FOR THU WITH A WARM...DRY DAY EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT               
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL THU NIGHT.  FORCING FOR MCS WED             
NIGHT IS ALONG ND/SD BORDER...WITH LIKELY EASTWARD MOVEMENT. WILL LET           
DAY SHIFT LOOK AT LATER MODEL RUNS FOR POSSIBLE CHANCE TSRA IN THE AREA         
LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING.                                               
NGM-FWC/AVN-FAN TEMP GUIDANCE RATHER SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD AND                
ACCEPTED...TEMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOUGH TO BEAT THE PAST FEW DAYS.              
COORDINATED WITH KDVN.                                                          
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
RRS                                                                             
 wi                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
218 AM MST THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY                
FEED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED            
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND...A FEW STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN                 
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GRADUALLY                  
MIGRATE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS STILL             
FAVORS MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS...THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS                      
WIDESPREAD AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.                                             
DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED, BUT WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE              
WOODS YET (OR TROPICAL RAIN FOREST AS THE CASE MAY BE). A SLEEPER               
SHORT WAVE IN THE KLAS AREA, WHICH IS FUELING A SMALL, SLOW-MOVING              
MCS NEAK KIGM, WAS ONLY PICKED UP WELL BY THE ETA AND RUC. THEY TAKE            
IT ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH A TRAILING, WEAK LOBE THROUGH SE AZ            
JUST AFTER 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT, THAT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD.             
FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES AREN'T AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, SO THE DEGREE            
OF RELOADING IS IN DOUBT. HOWEVER, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS               
(PRECIP WATERS IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE) WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING              
EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE VORT             
AND THE 300MB HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE ONGOING                   
CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS              
AS FAR NORTH AS PINAL COUNTY. THE SLOW DRYING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO             
KEEP OUR FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOWN, BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
AND MAY NEED TO BEEF UP WORDING ONCE WE GET THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA.             
THE TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA LAST NIGHT HAS                  
REALLY SATURATED THINGS WITH MANY WASHES STILL RUNNING THIS MORNING.            
TO SUM UP, PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHER THAN A DOWNWARD             
TWEAK ON HIGHS TODAY AND SLIGHT POP INCREASES FROM TUCSON EAST THIS             
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOMORROW DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A DOWNER WITH                 
LOWER THETA-E AND SOME WARMING ALOFT. WEAK FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF             
THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP DUE TO LESS                
CLOUD COVER. NO MRF AVAILABLE AS YET, BUT OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
MAINTAIN A TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THAT SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT            
EXTENDED WITH ONLY THE WESTERN DESERTS CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON FLOW.            
PYTLAK                                                                          
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 150430  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
150 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
RESENT...AN EARLY VERSION OF THE AFD WAS ACCIDENTLY RELEASED.                   
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE                    
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER APALACHEE            
BAY...WERE RUC AND WV IMAGERY INDICATE A VORT CENTER MOVING THROUGH             
THAT REGION.  GRAYS REEF WIND INSTRUMENT STILL NOT REPORTING BUT                
GUSTS...10 METER WINDS AND SEAS ALL APPEAR TO BE IN LINE WITH                   
CURRENT CWF PRODUCT.                                                            
SYNOPTIC...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFF HAT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING              
SW INTO COASTAL GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM               
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A VORT                  
CENTER ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NE                
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES FROM COASTAL SC SW                  
ACROSS SE GA TO NEAR TLH...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY             
BROAD AND DIFFUSE. THE ETA MODEL MAINTAINS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING                    
MOISTURE. THIS MODEL SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER S-CENTRAL              
GA TODAY AND SW TO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. NGM INDICATES MORE                   
AVAILABLE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING BUT DRIES THE REGION OUT             
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE                  
BUILDING MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.                                                    
TODAY...ALL MODELS EXHIBIT A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN                
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC                 
MOISTURE AND ENHANCE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. EXPECT THE                      
CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN INLAND AREAS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
SHOULD SHIELD THE EAST COAST FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS                   
AFTERNOON. AVG 1ST PERIOD HI TEMP ERROR AT AMG THIS WEEK IS +4 SO               
WILL GO WITH THE FLOW AND SHAVE 4 DEGREES OFF THE FWC HIGH TEMP.                
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.                
WITH THE SERLY FLOW CONTINUING THE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED            
SHOWER OVERNIGHT...SEE IT AS A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL GO 20 PCNT.               
FRIDAY AND MARINE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH             
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31-32 NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF              
TODAY WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS. COASTAL WINDS SHOULD BE EAST TO                     
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
WITH A LONG FETCH AREA...SEAS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY BUILDING...SUGGEST            
KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                         
PRELIM                                                                          
AMG 85/71/88/71 4132                                                            
SSI 88/74/85/75 3232                                                            
JAX 90/72/89/73 2222                                                            
GNV 91/69/92/68 4131 05                                                         
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 151014 COR  fl                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
150 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED TO OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE                    
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER APALACHEE            
BAY...WERE RUC AND WV IMAGERY INDICATE A VORT CENTER MOVING THROUGH             
THAT REGION.  GRAYS REEF WIND INSTRUMENT STILL NOT REPORTING BUT                
GUSTS...10 METER WINDS AND SEAS ALL APPEAR TO BE IN LINE WITH                   
CURRENT CWF PRODUCT.                                                            
SYNOPTIC...UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OFF HAT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING              
SW INTO COASTAL GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM               
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A VORT                  
CENTER ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NE                
GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM LIES FROM COASTAL SC SW                  
ACROSS SE GA TO NEAR TLH...BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY             
BROAD AND DIFFUSE. THE ETA MODEL MAINTAINS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY                 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING                    
MOISTURE. THIS MODEL SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP OVER S-CENTRAL              
GA TODAY AND SW TO THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW. NGM INDICATES MORE                   
AVAILABLE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING BUT DRIES THE REGION OUT             
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE                  
BUILDING MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.                                                    
TODAY...ALL MODELS EXHIBIT A BUILDING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN                
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC                 
MOISTURE AND ENHANCE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. EXPECT THE                      
CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT IN INLAND AREAS...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                
SHOULD SHIELD THE EAST COAST FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION THIS                   
AFTERNOON. AVG 1ST PERIOD HI TEMP ERROR AT AMG THIS WEEK IS +4 SO               
WILL GO WITH THE FLOW AND SHAVE 4 DEGREES OFF THE FWC HIGH TEMP.                
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE INTERIOR.                
WITH THE SERLY FLOW CONTINUING THE COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED            
SHOWER OVERNIGHT...SEE IT AS A SLIGHT CHANCE AND WILL GO 20 PCNT.               
FRIDAY AND MARINE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH             
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31-32 NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF              
TODAY WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS. COASTAL WINDS SHOULD BE EAST TO                     
SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
WITH A LONG FETCH AREA...SEAS SHOULD BE GRADUALLY BUILDING...SUGGEST            
KEEPING SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD.                         
PRELIM                                                                          
AMG 85/71/88/71 4132                                                            
SSI 88/74/85/75 3232                                                            
JAX 90/72/89/73 2222                                                            
GNV 91/69/92/68 4131 05                                                         
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 150123  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
225 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
05Z SFC ANALYSIS AND MSAS DATA SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA GENERALLY UNDER           
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC (BERMUDA HIGH)WITH JUST A            
HINT OF A WEAK TROFF OVER E CNTRL KY. SAT PIXS AND RADAR COMPOSITES             
SHOWING THAT ALL SHRAS AND MOST CLDS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAVE           
DISSIPATED.                                                                     
MAIN FCST PROBLEM TODAY (AND TOMORROW) WILL BE THE HANDLING OF WIDELY           
SCATTERED OR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA S/TSRA S. MODELS INDICATE WEAK            
5H TROFF AXIS/VORT TO REMAIN OVER CNTRL-E KY TODAY...ALBEIT LESS THAN           
YESTERDAY IT MAY BE ENUFF TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW TSRA S.            
AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST FROM JUST ABOVE SFC TO NEAR 7H. FCST               
SOUNDINGS SHOWING FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LESS OF A                
CAPPING INVERSION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP IN THE         
AFTERNOON...EVEN STEEPER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAIRLY HIGH THETA-E AIR            
IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY AND SE ZONES ESPECIALLY LIE UNDER A THETA-E MAXIMA         
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED TOO.                         
WITH ALL THIS SAID WILL INTRODUCE LOW POPS/SLIGHT CHANCE OVER N-CNTRL           
ZONES (20%) AND GO WITH A 30% OVER THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND             
GENERAL AREA OF MOST UNSTABLE AIR. THINKING THAT OROGRAPHICS WILL ALSO          
AID A TAD IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCT CONVECTION. THINKING MOST ACTIVITY          
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DIE OUT BY SUNSET. WILL GO WITH PS              
TODAY...MC OR BECOMING MC TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE          
NEW (03Z) MESO-ETA RUN AND 06Z RUC BEFORE MAKING FINAL ZONE BREAKUP             
DECISIONS.                                                                      
WILL HOLD OFF ATTM ON THROWING POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AND WILL LET DAY              
SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE 12Z RUN. PS SKIES EXPECTED WITH TEMPS IN THE           
UPPER 80S.                                                                      
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HIGHER HEIGHTS/DIRTY 5H RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE         
OHIO VALLEY. MRF TRIES TO WORK A FRONT SLOWLY SE THRU THE PERIOD AND            
HINTS AT POSSIBLE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT OR SO. THINKING THAT THE AIRMASS           
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS ALL         
HINT AT WEAK VORTS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND THINK THAT THERE WILL BE         
WIDELY SCT...MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH DAY. CURRENT             
EXTENDED IS RUNNING DRY...WILL GO AHEAD AND CHANGE THIS TO MENTION CHC          
OF AFTERNOON TSRA S.                                                            
MOS FAN TEMPS LOOK REAL CLOSE. MOS POPS KIND OF ON THE LOW SIDE.                
WORK ZONES OUT SHORTLY. COMMENTS WELCOME.                                       
THANKS TO SDF FOR COORDINATION.                                                 
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HALL                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 150127  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
552 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
JUST ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND                
HASTEN CLOUD LOSS. LATEST RUC SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE DROPPING SOUTH                
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND DIMINISHING AS SHORT WAVE AND LOW LEVEL               
JET DEPART THIS MORNING. NORTHERN LOWER WILL BE UPDATED TO DROP POPS            
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SUPPORT DIMINISHES.                              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
BAK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 150756  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
240 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
...TSRA CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THE PERIOD...                         
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MANY DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES AACROSS THE AREA. THE          
MAIN COLD FRONT...STEMING FROM THE LOW IN ERN MT EXTENDS ACROSS SRN             
MT...WHILE A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS NRN SD. FURTHER S...A          
WEAK LOW OVER PHP SD HAS A WASHED OUT FRONT AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM             
IT...TO BETWEEN VTN AND SNY. WINDS EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE E/NERLY            
BEHIND THIS OLD FRONT BUT HAVE SINCE RETURNED BACK TO THE SE AS                 
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL. NICE RISE/FALL COUPLET IN ADAP PRESSURE             
CHANGE DATA SUGGESTS THE ERN MT LOW WILL CONTINUE SEWD. KLNX 88D                
SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION MAINLY DRIVEN BY AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT          
AS SHOWN BY THE 03Z RUC...AND IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. TSRA HAVE         
DEREASED IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR. TSRA WAS              
LIKELY ELEVATED IN NATURE INITIALLY AS INFERRED FROM THE 00Z 7/15/99            
SOUNDING AND THE FACT THAT THERE WAS A GREAT DEAL OF LIGHTNING EARLY            
ON.                                                                             
THE NGM SFC PROGS ARE TOO FAST THRU 48 HRS WITH THE WEAK/OLD FRONT              
ACROSS THE STATE ATTM GIVEN THE FACT THAT PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL            
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER FEATURES...ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIR                
AGREEMENT WITH SHEARING OUT THE CURRENT LONG WAVE TROF IN THE QUICK NRN         
FLOW...THEN BRINGING THE NEXT ONE INTO THE NWRN PART OF OREGON BY 48            
HRS. THIS SETS UP A SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN          
IT...WHICH SHOW UP BETTER AT 700 MB. SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF                 
ETA/AVN. MAIN COLD FRONT WILL WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING TO COME THRU            
MOST OF THE CWA...AS LEE TROF/WASHED OUT FRONT TRIES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS         
THE STATE TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH FROM WHERE IT IS          
NOW THO...MAYBE A TAD FURTHER EWD. WEAKEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE        
LOCATED FROM NC INTO C NEB BY 00Z FRI WITH CAPES RUNNING >3000 J/KG.            
WITH 700 MB FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE W...WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION          
TO FORM A SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROF/OLD FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL          
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS WELL. MAIN FOCUS OF ACTIVITY THO WILL LIKELY BE         
IN SD CLOSER TO THE BEST SOURCE OF MID/UPPER FORCING. WITH NUMEROUS             
BOUNDARIES IN THE CWA THO...WILL INCLUDE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR THIS               
AFTERNOON AND WAIT TILL ISSUANCE TIME TO WORRY ABOUT WORDING OF PRECIP          
FOR THIS MORNING. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS NOT              
HANDLED WELL AT ALL IN THE NGM.                                                 
FOR FRIDAY...ETA HAS THE FRONT PUSHING PAST NRN KS BY 00Z SAT. NOT SURE         
I AGREE WITH THIS GIVEN THE FACT THAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK ALL MODELS            
HAD A FRONT THRU HERE BY NOW. SO WILL BRING THE FRONT THRU OUR                  
CWA...BUT HANGING UP IN NRN KS SOMEWHERE FRIDAY. WITH WEAK WAVES                
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND HARD TO SEE IN MODELS...WILL CONTINUE WORDING          
OF LOW POPS AS IN CURRENT ZONES.                                                
TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE...BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY AND A             
GRADUAL COOLING OF TEMPS ALOFT...WILL GO COOLER THAN WED MAXES IN THE SW        
TODAY...NEAR THE SAME FURTHER W AND E. ON FRI...WITH COLD FRONT THRU THE        
CWA...WILL STICK WITH GOING FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.            
NO NEW GUIDANCE IN FOR THE EXTENDED SO AT THIS TIME WON'T CHANGE                
ANYTHING. WILL WAIT UNTIL NEW MRF COMES IN TO SEE IF THERE ARE MANY             
DIFFS.                                                                          
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
JWS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 150725  ne                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
915 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE            
REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL              
HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A DRIER            
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...PUSHING MUCH OF             
THE MOIST AIR OFF TO THE EAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON                      
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.                                                         
DISCUSSION...UPPER CIRCULATION SEEN NICELY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE                 
IMAGERY OVER SWRN LINCOLN COUNTY MOVING STEADILY EWD. 12Z RUC                   
DEPICTED THIS NICELY ON ITS 3HR FORECAST. THE RUC SHOWS THE MAIN                
VORTICITY CENTER MOVING OFF INTO SWRN UT BY 00Z WITH ANOTHER WEAKER             
CENTER DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO EXTREME NRN CLARK COUNTY DURING THE           
SAME TIME PERIOD. THE NEW RUC IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT AND SEEMS TO HAVE           
A POOR INITIAL PANEL ON THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IT TAKES THE CENTER               
FARTHER S INTO NCNTRL AZ BY 03Z WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER INTO                  
EXTREME NWRN MOHAVE COUNTY BY 03Z. THIS SEEMS TO BE ON ONLY FOCUS FOR           
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER SHEAR TODAY           
AS NW FLOW TO 30KTS AT H5 DEVELOPS AND S TO SW FLOW AT SURFACE AND              
850MBS AROUND 15KTS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY IN MOST            
AREAS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL OK FOR NWRN AZ AS MID LEVEL TROUGH               
AXIS SHOULD BE RUNNING THROUGH THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL HAVE           
TO RELY ON TRAINING OR JUST VERY STRONG STORMS TO PRODUCE FLOODING.             
FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS             
LATER THIS MORNING AND ROLL THROUGH THE CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.              
AFTERNOON CAPES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES TO                
MINUS 4 OR 5 SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH NO               
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ATTM FOR THE VALLEY WILL HAVE TO               
KEEP AN EYE ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FEW COULD BE QUITE STRONG BUT               
WITH OVERALL EWD MOVEMENT OF 15 TO 20 MPH. NO UPDATES PLANNED AS OF             
NOW. SKRBAC                                                                     
.LAS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE REFER TO THE                 
LATEST RNOFFALAS STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 141603  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
245 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
HINT OF OLD BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST IN                 
MSAS SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX AND STREAMLINE FIELDS. HEALTHY AREA OF               
CONVECTION W/ COOLING TOPS IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO HORRY/MARION                  
COUNTIES DRIVEN BY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE S/SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ONE HOUR              
STANDARD Z/R ESTIMATED RAFL RATES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.75-1.50                
INCHES IN THIS AREA. UPPER HIGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR/RUC OFF THE SE              
COAST IS KEEPING MOIST PLUME AXIS DIRECTED INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM              
FL AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z (MHX/CHS) REVEAL               
PWS >2.00 INCHES AND LIFTED INDICES IN MARGINAL-MODERATE RANGES                 
FROM MHX-CHS RESPECTIVELY. CHANCE POPS WILL BE THE BEST WAY TO GO               
TODAY...DON/T FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING HIGHER W/ NOTHING                          
SUBSTANTIALLY DEFINED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. ETA TIME-HEIGHT CROSS                  
SECTIONS POINT TOWARD DRYING ABOVE H8 THIS EVENING AND FRI AS WLY               
FLOW DEEPENS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE W/ UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE COAST              
TO SLIP TOWARD NE FL AND E GA...ELUDING TO MORE SUN ON FRI AND                  
WARMING TREND. NGM GUIDANCE HAS FARED WELL ALONG THE COAST THE LAST             
COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH WAY TOO WARM INLAND AREAS W/ COOL RIDGE                 
ANCHORED THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT NGM TEMPS IN THE INLAND               
ZONES AND STICK CLOSER COASTAL AREAS.                                           
CWF: TOTALLY AGREE W/ MHX THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY WEAK THIS             
EVENT. IT HAS BEEN A FRUSTRATING SET OF MIDS. AT ANY RATE...W/                  
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INITIALIZE W/ VARIABLE                
WINDS TODAY...THEN TREND TOWARD SWLY FLOW. 3 FT SWELLS CONTINUE.                
PRELIMINARY CCF:                                                                
ILM EB 084/071 087/071 089 29423                                                
FLO EE 079/070 085/070 088 29323                                                
MYR EB 082/072 083/071 084 29433                                                
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
PFAFF                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 150644  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
905 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
NO UPDATE PLANNED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVR NRN RRV IS SLOWLY DRIFTING            
EAST ALG THE NRN MN BORDER...WELL HANDELED BY 12Z MODEL SUITE. NRLY             
FLOW INTO FGF CWA HAS STABILIZED LOW LEVELS FOR THE EVENING. LATE               
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING...STILL EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO                
AREA. LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED LAST FEW HOURS INTO            
CNTRL SD WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM HON NWD TO THE ND               
BDR. 00Z RUC PUSHES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE INO SCNTRL ND BY 06Z              
AND INTO NRN RRV BY 12Z...WITH ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL SURGE.                 
CURRENT TEMPS AND PCPN TIMING ARE GOOD.                                         
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 142038  nd                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1037 PM CDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                     
SFC TROUGH REMAINING STATIONARY IN ERN NM WITH SSE WINDS ACROSS THE             
PNHDLS.  LATEST RUC/NGM/ETA FCSTG TROUGH TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO           
WRN PART OF PNHDL BY DAYBREAK.  THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO BACK           
WINDS AROUND TO S IN THE WEST AND S TO SE IN CNTRL AND ERN ZONES.               
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 150236 AMD  tx                                  

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
218 AM MST THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY                
FEED DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED            
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND...A FEW STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN                 
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL GRADUALLY                  
MIGRATE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS STILL             
FAVORS MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS...THE ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE AS                      
WIDESPREAD AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.                                             
DISCUSSION...WESTERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED, BUT WE'RE NOT OUT OF THE              
WOODS YET (OR TROPICAL RAIN FOREST AS THE CASE MAY BE). A SLEEPER               
SHORT WAVE IN THE KLAS AREA, WHICH IS FUELING A SMALL, SLOW-MOVING              
MCS NEAK KIGM, WAS ONLY PICKED UP WELL BY THE ETA AND RUC. THEY TAKE            
IT ACROSS NORTHERN AZ TODAY WITH A TRAILING, WEAK LOBE THROUGH SE AZ            
JUST AFTER 00Z. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT, THAT MAY NOT BE TOO BAD.             
FLOW AND SHEAR PROFILES AREN'T AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY, SO THE DEGREE            
OF RELOADING IS IN DOUBT. HOWEVER, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS               
(PRECIP WATERS IN THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE) WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING              
EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE VORT             
AND THE 300MB HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE ONGOING                   
CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS              
AS FAR NORTH AS PINAL COUNTY. THE SLOW DRYING MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO             
KEEP OUR FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOWN, BUT DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH              
AND MAY NEED TO BEEF UP WORDING ONCE WE GET THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA.             
THE TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA LAST NIGHT HAS                  
REALLY SATURATED THINGS WITH MANY WASHES STILL RUNNING THIS MORNING.            
TO SUM UP, PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHER THAN A DOWNWARD             
TWEAK ON HIGHS TODAY AND SLIGHT POP INCREASES FROM TUCSON EAST THIS             
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOMORROW DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A DOWNER WITH                 
LOWER THETA-E AND SOME WARMING ALOFT. WEAK FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF             
THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP DUE TO LESS                
CLOUD COVER. NO MRF AVAILABLE AS YET, BUT OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
MAINTAIN A TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. THAT SUPPORTS OUR CURRENT            
EXTENDED WITH ONLY THE WESTERN DESERTS CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON FLOW.            
PYTLAK                                                                          
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 150430  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1025 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                     
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF OF               
MEXICO ACROSS SE GA. RADAR HAS SHOWN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND                
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL WATERS SINCE EARLY THIS                    
MORNING. SUGGEST REMOVING MENTION OF AFTERNOON IN COASTAL WATERS.               
RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONCENTRATED OVER NE            
FL AND BECOMING STRONGER BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.              
ZONES HAVE GOOD CHANCE POPS INLAND TODAY AND CHANCE COASTAL AREAS.              
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS GIVEN MORNING SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED LOWER             
PW AND LITTLE MORE STABLE ATMOS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MODIFIED LI              
-6 AND CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG. ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH UPPER                 
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID TSTMS. NGM SEEMED TO BE               
THE STRONGEST WITH REGARD TO THIS COMPARED TO AVN AND ETA. ST.                  
AUGUSTINE CMAN SHOWS 6-8 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SEA BREEZE.               
FOR NOW...WILL NOT CHANGE FORECAST.                                             
ARS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 151412  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
955 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SET UP              
EARLY ALONG THE COAST. RADAR SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME                
COMING ONSHORE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE                
FORMED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEAK EASTERLY JET                     
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. SUSPECT THE                
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL SUBSISTENCE ASSOCIATED ALONG            
THE PERIPHERY OF A TUTT CELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO MOVE              
TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS                
AFTERNOON FOR THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. AGREE WITH MIA           
ABOUT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL EASTERLIES STRENGTHENING. THE RUC                   
GUIDANCE WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID ALSO SUPPORTS THE              
EASTERLIES STRENGTHENING                                                        
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT OF RAIN FOR THE                 
INLAND COUNTIES AND REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING SHOWERS FROM BREVARD              
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK OK.                                                    
MARINE...BUOY 10 INDICATING CONSISTENT 10 KNOT SOUTHEAST WIND AND               
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.                 
.MLB...NONE                                                                     
WIMMER/TROUTMAN                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 151333  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                     
ONLY QUESTION ON UPDATE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL PORTIONS             
OF FORECAST AREA.  TREND OF LATEST RUC MODEL IS TO COOL LOW LEVELS              
SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO BREAK CAP IN                   
CENTRAL...HAVE REDUCED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AREA.  BEST                 
GRADIENT ALONG WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT IS TO NORTHWEST OF                     
AREA...HAVE REDUCED WINDS IN WISCONSIN ZONES.  TEMPERATURES STILL               
LOOK GOOD FOR AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION WILL               
NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY.                                                        
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 150851  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
900 AM MDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
...ZONES WILL BE UPDATED...                                                     
COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO THE        
DAKOTAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING CLEARING TREND TAKING PLACE FROM          
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN ON              
WESTERLY FLOW. UPPER LOW IN NWRN MONTANA PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG         
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY/TONIGHT. SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED           
WITH THIS FEATURE INDICATED BY 12Z RUC. THIS MIGHT MAKE ATMOS UNSTABLE          
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER          
WITH LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE THANKS TO INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS         
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND         
FOR SERN MONTANA THIS EVNG. WILL ALSO RAISE FIRST PERIOD TEMPS A TAD IN         
SHERIDAN SINCE THEY ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 60S AND SHOULD HAVE PLENTY         
OF SUNSHINE TODAY.  DS                                                          
BIL BB 080/049 080/053 084 62222                                                
LVM .. 075/046 075/... ... 62222                                                
HDN .. 081/048 081/... ... 62222                                                
MLS .. 082/053 080/050 ... 62222                                                
4BQ .. 084/055 082/... ... 62222                                                
BHK .. 081/048 080/... ... 62222                                                
SHR BB 085/048 081/050 083 62222                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KMSO 150954  mt                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
910 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A HIGH LEVEL DISTURBANCE                      
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR              
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. INCREASING                
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ON            
FRIDAY LEADING INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.                              
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IDENTIFIES HIGH LEVEL SHEAR                  
VORTICITY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA STARTING TO CROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL           
SIERRA OVER MONO AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES. RUC AND MESO-ETA MODELS            
AGREE PUSHING HIGH LEVEL VORTICITY AROUND 200-300 MB TO THE E-NE INTO           
SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE MID               
LEVEL VORTICITY AROUND 400-500 MB ROUNDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA                    
ANTICYCLONE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MID             
LEVEL UNSTABLE LOOKING CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EDGING THROUGH SOUTHERN NYE           
COUNTY TOWARDS SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES PRETTY               
MUCH IN BETWEEN ABOVE TWO TRAJECTORIES. MESO-ETA AND RUC ALSO                   
IDENTIFY BEST LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL               
NEVADA TODAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NOT COME INTO AREA AS WELL                  
DEFINED AS LAST NIGHTS NOW EDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...BUT FEEL            
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFTING TO RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL             
NEVADA TO SCATTERED LEVELS.                                                     
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ALSO IDENDTIFIES SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRYING             
HAS OCCURED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS DOWN NEARLY            
1/2 INCH. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE INTO SOME INCREASE IN             
THE SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY           
SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND INYO COUNTY...BUT ACCORDING TO RUC/MESO-ETA            
NOT AS STRONG AS IN GOING FORECAST.  AND ALSO NOT ENOUGH WESTERLY               
COMPONENT TO BRING NOTABLE SURFACE DRYING VERY MUCH INTO OUR AREA YET           
TODAY.  WILL LEAVE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ALONE FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH            
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE STILL LYING               
EAST OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SUPPORTING SCATTERED COVERAGE                 
VERSUS ISOLATED TO THE WEST. DECENT WESTERLY CELL MOVEMENT TODAY AND            
GENERALLY LOWER CAPES IN ADDITION TO LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATERS                  
MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT TROUBLE EITHER FROM HIGH            
WIND THREAT OR FLASH FLOODING.                                                  
AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL LOOK MORE CLOSELY AT DEGREE OF DRYING                   
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST AND HOW LONG BEFORE MONSOON RETURNS.                 
MCQUEEN                                                                         
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KLKN 151549  nv                                      

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
845 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
DRIER AIRMASS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEVADA WITH DEW POINTS            
DOWN AS MUCH AS AROUND 30 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST NEVADA. ALSO COOLER              
ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS DOWN AROUND 5 DEGREES AND AROUND 3-4                 
DEGREES THROUGH 600 MB ON THE MORNING SOUNDING. MAIN THREAT TODAY FOR           
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.             
SURFACE FRONT FROM AROUND A SALT LAKE TO AUSTIN TO BRIDGEPORT LINE AND          
WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX HEADING INTO SOUTHERN SIERRA.           
RUC BRINGS PORTION OF VORT MAX ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH              
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH FRONT SHOULD KEEP SOME          
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS SO NO UPDATES          
NECESSARY. PIKE                                                                 
.REV...EASTERN CALIFORNIA...NONE.                                               
       WESTERN NEVADA...NONE.                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KVEF 151106  nv                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
405 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR SOME AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST                  
ARIZONA TODAY. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE              
MOISTURE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY LEADING INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR            
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MOHAVE COUNTY EARLIER THIS               
MORNING HAS MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH NEW STORMS FIRING              
OVER ADJACENT COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING LOW AND MID             
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EVIDENT FROM SURFACE           
OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MAIN SYNOPTIC             
FEATURES TO NOTE ARE THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHERN IDAHO AND             
ALSO A WEAKER MID LEVEL CIRCULATION GENERATING VERTICAL MOTION OFF              
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. OTHER MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE               
LATTER WELL BUT ACCORDING TO THE 09Z RUC...THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN           
ALONG THE COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS.                                 
THE 00Z DRA SOUNDING SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER THAN           
PREVIOUS RUNS...1.03 INCHES VERSUS ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...BUT ENOUGH FOR            
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DOES NOT APPEAR THAT LINGERING MOISTURE               
WILL BE QUICK TO LEAVE SO MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY FOR MOST             
ZONES IS WARRANTED WITH MOHAVE COUNTY A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR               
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRYING TREND WILL BECOME MORE EVIDENT FRIDAY           
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING           
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT MAY FOCUS SOME CONVECTION           
OVER NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES INTO THE NIGHT SO ADDED MENTION TO                
RESPECTIVE ZONES.                                                               
DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE              
MODELS SHOW DRY PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY AND A POSSIBILITY OF MOISTURE            
WORKING ITS WAY UP FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY FOR A CHANCE OF                     
THUNDERSTORMS. JGA                                                              
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 150945  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
945 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
EVERYTHING IN THE MORNING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY            
CHANGES.  PARTLY SUNNY WILL WORK OUT WELL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                   
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BUF/84 ALY/82 SO CU WILL BE DVLPG THIS AFTERNOON. RUC          
DETAILS A LITTLE VORT MAX MOVG THROUGH W. NY NOW AND IS REFLECTED IN SAT        
VIEW/OBS WITH SOME 12000 FT AC. RUC ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE PVA ASSOC WITH          
TROF AND CLOUD REMNANTS OF THIS MORNING'S MCS IN UPPER MICH...EXPECT            
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH THIS PASSING               
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.                                                      
WORK ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY FOR COORDINATION.                               
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
CHIARAMONTE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 151322  ny                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
1022 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                     
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NW MN           
INTO EAST CENTRAL ND THIS AM AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR          
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE SEVERE STORMS HAVE LIFTED NE          
OUT OF EXTREME NW MN...BUT MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER             
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER         
SW ND/NW SD AND AHEAD OF VORT LOBE PUSHING THROUGH ND THIS AM. LATEST           
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING THIS AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING         
LIGHTNING STRIKES. 12Z RUC INDICATES THAT LIS OVER FA TO CONTINUE TO            
FALL...REACHING TO AS LOW AS -11 OVER FAR ERN ZONES BY 18Z WHERE MORE           
SUN IS EXPECTED. WITH RADAR...SFC AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTING               
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND WITH THIS ACTIVITY FORECAST TO             
PUSH INTO NW MN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL UP POPS ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY NE         
ND. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD HIGHS TEMPS DOWN OVER               
PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND NW MN AND WILL CUT HIGHS THESE AREAS                     
ACCORDINGLY. SE ZONE TEMP TRENDS ON TRACK AS READINGS THERE ALREADY IN          
THE LOWER 80S.                                                                  
WILL SEND UPDATED ZFP SHORTLY.                                                  
TURNER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 150818  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1100 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                     
WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNINGS PROFILERS 850MB            
WINDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM OVERNIGHT...BUT 12Z RUC SHOWS A CONTINUED             
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. GOING                    
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW BUT WILL CONT TO MONITOR JUST IN CASE WE            
NEED TO BUMP SOME OF THESE AREAS UP LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST             
HAS THINGS IN HAND. NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL                
CONT TO MONITOR.                                                                
30                                                                              
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES WEST THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 150906  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                     
CURRENT GSP VAD WINDS DISPLAY NE DIRECTION WHICH IS BASICALLY ALONG             
TERRAIN RATHER THAN UPSLOPE. THIS DIRECTION SIMILAR TO LOW-LEVEL                
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED WINDS FOR ENTIRE CWA THIS MRNG. THUS...VIRTUALLY           
NO UPSLOPE FLOW ATTM. 03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC FCST LGT LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO           
BCM SE LATER TDA. THUS...WK UPSLOPE WILL DVLP AND CREATE                        
CORRESPONDINGLY WK FORCING FOR AFTN CNVCTN. TRADITIONAL STABILITY               
INDICES ON THE LOW SIDE AND ILL-DEFINED E/W TROF EVIDENT AT 850/700 MB          
NR NRN BORDER OF CWA SHOULD NOT BE MAJOR PLAYER SO DO NOT EXCEPT SIG            
SHWR/TSTM DVLPMNT. CURRENT TEMP FCSTS SEEM TO BE GOOD...BUT WILL HAVE           
TO LOOK AT SAT PIX TO CHECK ON CLOUD TRENDS BFR FINALIZING AFTN MAXES.          
LGL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 151358  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
932 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
LATEST VIS SAT AND OBS SUGGEST BREAKS WILL CONT IN THE EARLY MORNING            
CLOUDS. RUC FCST SOUNDING OVR CWA ALSO IS INITIALLY SATURATED BUT SHOWS         
DRYING BY AFTN. THIS MEANS NO WEDGE OVR AREA AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT SE BY        
AFTN. WITH DECREASING CLDS WILL BUMP MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. RUC SHOWS           
SHORT WAVE THRU THIS AFTN OVR THE CWA AND LI'S IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE.           
WITH THE INCREASE IN SUN...MDT INSTABILITY...AND BREAKDOWN OF WEDGE             
BELIEVE THAT WDLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP CURRENT            
POPS RANGING FROM 30 TO 50 PCT. HIGHEST POP OF 50 PCT IS IN SRN PTN OF          
CWA IN KEEPING WITH LATEST RUC PCPN FCST.                                       
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BLP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 151352  sc                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
940 AM CDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
DRY AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF FA TODAY. PW SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS                  
EASTERN ZONES AND THIS IS WHERE RUC IS DEVELOPING PRECIP                        
THIS AFT. A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRING JUST EAST OF FA AND OFFSHORE                  
THIS MORNING. WILL RE-ALIGN ZONES TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS               
UPPER COAST AND EXT EAST...ELSEWHERE EXPECT A LOT OF SUN AND                    
LOW-MID 90 HIGH TEMPS.                                                          
NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO MARINE ZONES.                                           
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
33/40                                                                           
UPDATED PRELIMS...                                                              
CLL BB 094/073 094/073 093 002                                                  
IAH BB 094/073 094/074 092 --3                                                  
GLS BB 089/080 089/081 089 223                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 151437  tx                                      

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
950 AM MST THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE THAT PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN           
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST.            
NEVERTHELESS...ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS            
IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH           
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING OVER THE HIGHER           
TERRAIN FRIDAY. THE AIR CONTINUES TO BE QUITE MOIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN           
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA...BUT SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED            
TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY TO DECREASE THE            
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX MOVED OVER S-CNTRL AZ THIS            
MORNING AND PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM             
APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED EWD AND IS NOW PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN               
JUST SE OF THE PHX CWA. THE ETA INITIALIZED THE TROUGH AND VORT MAX             
FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH WITH             
IT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF WEATHER IT PRODUCED. DATA HAS BEEN VERY            
SLOW TO COME IN THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY 12 HOURS OF THE ETA AND NO             
NGM. THE RUC DID NOT DO WELL ON INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM OVER S-CNTRL            
AZ THIS MORNING AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE 00Z MODEL SERIES...WITH            
THE ETA CONSIDERED BEST...SHOWED ANOTHER VORT MAX DROPPING IN OVER              
THE S-CNTRL AZ AREA LATER TODAY/TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF           
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THAT           
IDEA...SO WILL LEAVE THAT AS IS...BUT WILL UPDATE FOR CURRENT TRENDS            
AND ASSOCIATED CHANGES IN THE FIRST PERIOD.  WILT                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPSR 151645  az                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
255 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN              
DEEP AND MOIST ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO LEAVE COASTAL SHOWERS IN AFTER               
MIDNIGHT AGAIN FROM THE CAPE SOUTH. RUC AND MESOETA MID LEVEL MEAN              
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY               
LOOPS SHOW DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE WORK ITS WAY OVER THE STATE                  
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE THREAT OF ANY COASTAL WATERS STORM                
ACTIVITY TONIGHT.                                                               
FOR TONIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF EVENING STORMS THEN CLEARING FOR THE INLAND               
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS OK.                                        
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER                 
LEVEL TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A                
DECENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM AT LEAST THE CAPE SOUTHWARD             
THRU THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS BEING REDUCED                  
PRECIP CHANCES ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANY               
PRECIP WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE AM TO AROUND NOON HOURS ALONG THE                 
COAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA/AVN/NGM ALL SHOW THAT              
PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW CLIMO BY FRIDAY AND STAY JUST             
NEAR CLIMO THRU THE REST OF THE FORECAST. ONLY A MENTION OF SLIGHT              
POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THE MOST OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY WITH THE                   
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE FA.                        
ALL MODELS PROG THE TUTT LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND               
SOUTHWEST OF THE FA INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECENT LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE             
TUTT LOW BY 12Z SATURDAY AND WILL NEED TO UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE               
CATEGORY FOR THE FA FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE CLOSE WITH BOTH MODELS              
AND BASICALLY ACCEPTED.                                                         
.MARINE...BUOY 10...LAPS AND MSAS MESOSCALE DATA CONTINUES TO                   
INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS              
AND WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE THIS TREND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.                       
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
DAB BB 073/088 073/089 074 11121                                                
MCO BB 073/092 074/091 074 11221                                                
MLB BB 075/089 076/089 076 11121                                                
.MLB...NONE                                                                     
WIMMER/TROUTMAN                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 151854  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
230 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
NGM/ETA/RUC MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUED TREND OF LOWER PRECIPITABLE                
WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 1.5 INCHES                 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  NGM IS THE MOST FERVANT WITH THIS             
TREND WHILE THE ETA DOWNPLAYS IT.  FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALL                  
MODELS CONTINUE TBW FORECAST AREA IN E-SE DEEP FLOW WITH LATE                   
OFFSHORE AM AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.                              
SUGGEST MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GOOD CHANCE             
OF LATE DAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WEST FLORIDA COAST            
NEXT TWO DAYS.  NGM MOS TEMPS ACCEPTED.  FAN PRECIP VALUES BETTER.              
ZALESKI                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 151758  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
952 AM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
NO UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.  MODELS SHOWING A WEAK VORTICITY MAX            
PASSING ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  09Z RUC INDICATING SOME LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT ALONG THE                 
MOUNTAINS. BUT NO SURFACE TRIGGER AVAILABLE FOR WIDESPREAD                      
CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE SHOULD BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME                 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY.  SURFACE OBS AND                 
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OVER MOST OF THE CWA...           
ALLOWING FOG TO BURN OFF QUICKLY. FEW CLOUDS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH           
AND SOME CU PROBABLY FORMING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES STILL            
LOOK ON TRACK.                                                                  
GH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 150903  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
310 PM EDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
AWIPS PROBLEMS HAS LEAD ME BACK TO AFOS THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGE               
INDICATED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS CWA WITH MOST OF THE CU IN THE              
MOUNTAINS. REFERRAL TO THE KFCX 88D...SHOWED THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAD             
DEVELOPED IN THE SW MOUNTAINS. WEAK EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT HAS                 
RESULTED IN SOME LIFT. SATELLITE MOISTURE LOOP HAD DRIER AIR ACROSS             
MOST OF THE FA TODAY...BUT DID DISPLAY SOME MOISTURE CREEPING NORTH             
ACROSS NC. THIS MORNING NASA SE MM5 KEEP CWA DRY THRU 12 HOURS. IN              
CONTRAST...THE 15Z RUC PRINTOUT SOME RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN              
MOUNTAINS. IN ANY CASE...EXPT SHOWERS TODAY TO DSPT QUICKLY SIMILIAR            
TO YESTERDAY. LOOKING AT A 500MB COMPARISION OF THE MODELS THIS                 
MORNING...APPEARS TAHT THE RIDGE BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD.              
THERE IS ABIT OF DIFFERENT ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE VORT MAXS (PLACED             
THIS MORNING ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS TO OUR WEST) ROTATING                    
EASTWARD. AFTER VIEWING SEVERAL PRODUCTS LIKE LIS...THETAE...RH                 
FEILDS...CAPES... ETC... MY IMPRESSION IS THAT THERE IS A CHC OF AN             
EVENING SHOWER IN THE WEST TONIGHT OTHERWISE PC WITH PATCHY FOG.                
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM (MAY RISE HIGHS CLOSER TO             
MOS GUIDANCE) WITH CHC OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAINLY            
IN THE WEST. SUMMER RETURNS. HAVE A GUD EVENING.                                
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 151450  va                                      

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
920 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999                                                      
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS EAST WA AND NORTH IDAHO BETWEEN SYSTEMS. FIRST           
SYSTEM IS THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER NW MT...RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD.               
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TRAPPED OVER NORTHEAST               
WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO MOVE           
OUT AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO AREA. EXPECT THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN              
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...HOWEVER LOOK AT 12Z OTX SOUNDING AND FORECAST             
SOUNDING FROM THE RUC INDICATE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN A           
DEVELOPING CAP BETWEEN 600-700MBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF             
WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...GIVEN WEAK E-NE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER              
THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO OTHER SYSTEM DROPPING OFF THE BC COAST.               
TEMPS IN THE BALL PARK SO WONT TOUCH THEM. AS FOR BC SYSTEM...WATER             
VAPOR SHOWING SYSTEM CONTINUING TO DIG TO THE SW OVER THE OCEAN AND             
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAVE              
MOST OF OUR CWA UNSCATHED TODAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE                 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EAST SLOPE ZONES WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND            
UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 069/050/074 013                                                             
CQV 071/049/075 113                                                             
S86 068/048/071 123                                                             
COE 069/051/073 013                                                             
WWP 066/047/070 113                                                             
LWS 076/054/080 002                                                             
MOS 067/049/072                                                                 
EAT 075/054/077 023                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSEW 151551  wa