AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1146 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...SFC TROUGH CLOSING IN ON CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE            
ATTM...HOWEVER THE STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF SYS HAVE             
ALLOWED FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF UPR LEVEL FEATURES INCLUDING                  
CLOUDS/PRECIP FOR TODAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POP/QPF FOR ALL BUT FAR              
NW ZONES. HAVE ALSO RAISED HIGHS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BY A FEW                 
DEGREES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES                    
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON THERE...SEE LITTLE PROBLEM CRAWLING TO            
NEAR 50 TO 55 BY LATE DAY...DESPITE H850 THERMAL RIDGE HEADING ESE              
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPS NORTH AND NORTHEAST LOOK TO BE              
ON TRACK. PREVIEW OF LATE TNT/FRI...LOOKS RATHER BREEZY FOR MOST OF             
THE DAY. /REV                                                                   
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS/AMOUNTS/TYPE TONIGHT.             
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE MILD WITH                 
READINGS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED             
ON VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THE 06Z RUC13 HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF               
THE FRONT AND THE POST-FRONTAL PRECIP. THE 06Z NAM IS ALSO TRENDING             
A BIT SLOWER...WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.             
WITH A DIGGING H5 TROF AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...THE SLOWER                 
TIMING LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC AND               
NAM. PRECIP TYPE MAY BE A BIT TRICKY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ALL RAIN               
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. I SUSPECT DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING            
WILL CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z. THERE               
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION. GFS COBB                  
PRECIP OUTPUT IS GENERATING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...WHILE THE NAM              
IS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.  I STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH SNOW                      
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY 2 OR 3 TENTHS. IF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OR MORE               
SLEET OCCUR...THIS COULD END UP BEING A SEEMINGLY LOW KEY WINTER                
WEATHER EVENT THAT CAUSES SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS. EXPECT A SHOT OF                
COLDER AIR FRIDAY WITH A STRONG NW WIND GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH. UPPER            
RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPS BACK INTO THE              
40S AND LOWER 50S BY SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR LATE               
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WON/T BE TAPPING              
THE BEST MOISTURE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...BUT THE TRACK COULD                
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KINNEY/REV                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED YET                     
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A MID LVL RDG OVER THE WEST             
COAST A TROF OVER THE PLAINS AND A BROAD RDG OVER THE ERN STATES.               
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE UPSTREAM...A NRN BRANCH SHORTWAVE                    
SHEARING OUT INTO MN/NW ONTARIO WHILE A STRONGER SRN STREAM                     
SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING THRU THE SRN PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE IS RIDING OVER THE RDG TOWARD THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA.            
SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARING SHRTWV IS LOCATED JUST N OF YQT...              
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN LK SUP AND APRCHG               
THE WRN ZNS ATTM. AIRMASS OVER THE FA AHEAD OF THE FNT IS QUITE WARM            
FOR THE SEASON...00Z GRB SDNG/TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOW H85 TEMP OF               
6C. BOTH SDNGS SHOW SHARP INVRN JUST ABV THE SFC WITH VERY DRY MID              
LVLS. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS MID/HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING SHRTWV             
RESTRICTED TO THE WRN FA AND LK SUP...SO FOG/ST HAS DVLPD OR                    
PERSISTS WHERE CLRG HAS ENHANCED RADIATION HEAT LOSS OVER LLVL                  
AIRMASS MOISTENED BY SN MELT TDAY AFTER HI TEMPS REACHED WELL INTO              
THE 40S AT SOME SPOTS. ALTHOUGH THICKER CLD PRESENT ALG APRCHG COLD             
FNT...00Z MPX RAOB AND TAMDAR SDNG FM DLH INDICATE A DRY LYR AT                 
LEAST 150MB THICK ABV LLVL MSTR AND HIER MID LLVL MSTR. NARROW BAND             
OF RADAR RETURNS ALG FNT HAVE BEEN DRYING UP LAST COUPLE OF HOURS               
DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO.              
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES REPORTED UPSTREAM AS PCPN BAND                
PASSED OVHD. LLVL AIRMASS BEHIND THE FNT IS A BIT MORE MOIST PER THE            
00Z INL SDNG...WHERE NR SATURATION APRNT UP TO H675. TEMP AT TOP OF             
MOIST LYR AS LO AS -14C. DESPITE PRESENCE OF WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE            
FVRBL UPR DVGC AND TEMPS FOR EFFICIENT ICE NUCLEATION...LTL IF ANY              
PCPN NOTED BEHIND FNT. OTRW...QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD AHEAD OF SRN                
BRANCH SHRTWV STREAMING NEWD THRU ERN WI TOWARD THE ECNTRL FA. SFC              
TEMPS BEHIND THE FNT FALL THRU THE 20S TOWARD THE UPR TEENS IN NW MN.           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOLVE ARND PCPN CHCS/TYPE AND FOG COVG.               
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV               
MOVING TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS SHEARING OUT OVERNGHT WHILE SFC LO N              
OF YQT PASSES ACRS NRN LK SUP AND DRAGS SFC COLD FNT ACRS THE FA.               
00Z NAM GENERATES UP TO 0.25 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER THE NW            
COUNTIES BY 09Z WITH INCRSG UPR DVGC/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS IN RRQ OF              
ONTARIO JET MAX OVER NARROW MOIST LYR NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN ZNS.              
HOWEVER...NAM SHOWED UP TO 0.10 INCH PCPN FALLING OVER THE WRN ZNS              
BTWN 00Z-03Z UNDER WHERE MOIST BAND NOW DRYING UP AND JUST A FEW                
SPRINKLES OBSVD. PROBLEM SEEMS RELATED TO MISDIAGNOSIS OF MID LVL               
MSTR OVER THE WRN ZNS. 00HR NAM SDNGS FOR THE AREA APPEAR TOO MOIST             
RELATIVE TO OBSVD TAMDAR SDNGS FM DLH/CMX. LATEST RUC13 QPF APPEARS             
TO BE SUPERIOR. THIS MODEL SHOWS MAINLY DRY WX THRU ABOUT 08Z...                
THEN ABOUT 0.05-0.10 INCH OVER THE WRN ZNS BTWN 08Z-12Z. SINCE TEMPS            
ARND 35 ATTM OVER THE W AND DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR WELL OVER 1K FT...            
EXPECT PCPN TO START AS -RA BEFORE CHGING OVER TO SN AS COLDER AIR              
UPSTREAM POURS IN AND UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS/EVAP COOLING ENHANCE               
COOLING ALF. WL MENTION UP TO AN INCH OF SN OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF            
THE NW WHERE RUC13 QPF MAXIMIZED.                                               
OTRW...ONLY CHG TO GOING FCST WAS TO LOWER TMINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES            
OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE CLRG HAS ALLOWED MERCURY TO NOSEDIVE INTO THE             
MID 20S. EXPECT FOG COVG TO EXPAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE                
INCRSG CLDS PUT A CAP ON A MORE DRASTIC TEMP DECLINE AND PREVENT FOG            
FM BECMG SO DENSE OVER A WSSPRD AREA AS TO REQUIRE AN ADVY.                     
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAIRLY SHALLOW MSTR...MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS              
(-8 TO -10C AT 850 MB) AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND                  
DEPARTED FRONT ARGUE FOR LOWERING SNOW POPS AND MENTIONING JUST                 
PATCHY FZDZ/DZ OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF PD. BEST CHC FOR PCPN                
WILL BE FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN ONSHORE NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. WEAKENING AND BACKING FLOW WILL END PCPN CHCS FROM WEST BY            
SAT AFT.                                                                        
SUN INTO THU...GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL APPEAR INTENT ON PHASING JET              
STREAMS AND DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY              
SOMETIME TUE OR WED. LIKED ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT UMKET SOLNS               
WHICH INDICATE MORE STRUNG OUT AND ELONGATED TROF TO MOVE ACROSS                
GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUE. THESE SOLNS AGREE BETTER WITH GFS                     
REFORECAST EMSEMBLE AND IS ALSO NCEP PREFERRED SOLN. SO WILL GO WITH            
DRY FCST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEN BRING CHC OF -SN OR FZDZ               
ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING               
TROF. MENTIONED FZDZ AS PROFILES RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE                   
SHALLOW. KEPT IN CHC OF SNOW ON TUE WITH A BIT COLDER 850 MB TEMPS              
OF -10 TO -12C MOVING ACROSS AREA. RDGG IN WAKE OF TROF/FRONT  WILL             
END SNOW FROM WEST BY EARLY WED. INTRODUCED LOW CHC POP FOR SNOW ON             
THU WITH APPROACH OF NEXT TROF/FRONT FM NRN PLAINS.                             
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE            
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH A MID LVL RDG OVER THE WEST COAST A TROF            
OVER THE PLAINS AND A BROAD RDG OVER THE ERN STATES. SEVERAL                    
SHORTWAVES OF NOTE UPSTREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT OVER NRN               
PLAINS WHILE A STRONGER SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING INTO THE SRN            
PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS RIDING OVER THE RDG IN            
THE PAC NW.                                                                     
AT THE SFC...A TROF/COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER WRN ONTARIO                
INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NW WI. PLENTY OF CLOUDS NOTED OVER MN AND            
NW WI BEHIND COLD FRONT WHILE CLOUDS MORE SCT TO BKN IN WARM SECTOR             
AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WI AND UPR MI            
HAVE SOARED INTO THE UPR 30S TO LOW 40S. MELTING SNOW FROM WARM                 
TEMPS HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS IN UPR 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS MUCH OF CWA              
WITH PATCHY FOG OR HAZE REPORTED AT MANY AUTOMATED SITES.                       
TONIGHT...MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT CONTINUING TO SHOW SHORTWAVE             
SHEARING OUT OVER THE NRN PLAINS AS UPR DIV IN RRQ OF DEPARTING JET             
IN ONTARIO WEAKENS ALONG APPROACHING TROF/CDFNT. ALSO UPSTREAM 12Z              
SNDGS OVER KBIS AND CYQD NOT SHOWING A LOT IN WAY OF DEEP MSTR WITH             
THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ALSO HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF OVER WRN HALF OF                
U.P. AND NOW SHOW ERN HALF DRY TONIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN         
THIS EVIDENCE ALONG WITH FAIRLY DRY UPSTREAM OBS AND DIMINISHING                
RADAR TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK CHC OF SNOW TO FLURRIES OVER             
WEST TONIGHT AND EVEN INTRODUCED MENTION OF DZ/FZDZ GIVEN HOW                   
SHALLOW MSTR IS IN RELATIVELY WARM PROFILE. WENT WITH DRY FCST OVER             
ERN HALF COUNTIES WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CDFNT THERE. MELTING SNOW              
FROM WARM TEMPS TODAY AND BKN CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF              
FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE             
SURPRISED IF SOME OF FOG BECOMES LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...                      
ESCPECIALLY FOR ERN COUNTIES IN UPSLOPE/WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.                      
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FAIRLY SHALLOW MSTR...MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS              
(-8 TO -10C AT 850 MB) AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND                  
DEPARTED FRONT ARGUE FOR LOWERING SNOW POPS AND MENTIONING JUST                 
PATCHY FZDZ/DZ OR FLURRIES THROUGH MUCH OF PD. BEST CHC FOR PCPN                
WILL BE FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES IN ONSHORE NRLY FLOW OFF LAKE                     
SUPERIOR. WEAKENING AND BACKING FLOW WILL END PCPN CHCS FROM WEST BY            
SAT AFT.                                                                        
SUN INTO THU...GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL APPEAR INTENT ON PHASING JET              
STREAMS AND DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY              
SOMETIME TUE OR WED. LIKED ECMWF AND TO LESSER EXTENT UMKET SOLNS               
WHICH INDICATE MORE STRUNG OUT AND ELONGATED TROF TO MOVE ACROSS                
GREAT LAKES MON INTO TUE. THESE SOLNS AGREE BETTER WITH GFS                     
REFORECAST EMSEMBLE AND IS ALSO NCEP PREFERRED SOLN. SO WILL GO WITH            
DRY FCST FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND THEN BRING CHC OF -SN OR FZDZ               
ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SLOW MOVING               
TROF. MENTIONED FZDZ AS PROFILES RELATIVELY WARM AND MOISTURE                   
SHALLOW. KEPT IN CHC OF SNOW ON TUE WITH A BIT COLDER 850 MB TEMPS              
OF -10 TO -12C MOVING ACROSS AREA. RDGG IN WAKE OF TROF/FRONT  WILL             
END SNOW FROM WEST BY EARLY WED. INTRODUCED LOW CHC POP FOR SNOW ON             
THU WITH APPROACH OF NEXT TROF/FRONT FM NRN PLAINS.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1130 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LOW CLOUD DECK HAS LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE              
ALSO WORKING NORTH. THERE IS CURRENTLY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLEAR               
SKIES SOUTH OF MI... SO HAVE UPDATED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE SRN              
PORTION OF THE CWFA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AT H8 THIS              
AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS AROUND 10C SPREADING IN FROM THE SW. HOWEVER            
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MIXING WILL ONLY OCCUR THROUGH               
950 MB. THUS CURRENT FCST HIGHS AROUND 50 LOOK FINE.                            
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 7               
PM.                                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 AM EST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LGT S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRES TROUGH OVR MN TO KS HELPING TO               
TRANSPORT HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO FORECAST AREA FM LK MI AND LWR MI.              
CLEAR SKIES...HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM                   
MELTING SNOW LAST COUPLE DAYS RESULTED IN FOG LAST NIGHT INTO THIS              
MORNING. 12Z SOUNDING FM MPX AND GRB NEARLY IDENTICAL SHOWING LOW               
LEVEL SATURATION TRAPPED BENEATH WARM LAYER THROUGH H9. H9 TEMPS AS             
WARM AS +10C AT MPX AND SFC TEMPS BLO 0C ONLY HELPS TO STRENGTHEN               
INVERSION. GOOD COVERAGE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVR UPR                 
LAKES WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT H3 JET ARCING FM DAKOTAS            
INTO S ONTARIO. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT IN LOWEST 100MB AND INSOLATION             
CUT DOWN BY MID CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL MIXING. HOWEVER...IT                
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MIXING TO ACHIEVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S WITH               
SUCH WARM TEMPS JUST OFF THE SFC. MAIN CHANGE OF NOTE WAS TO LINGER             
FOG A BIT LONGER THAN TYPICAL MORNING DISSIPATION. KSAW AT 15Z (10              
AM EST) STILL BLO 1/4 MILE WITH CEILINGS OF 200 FT. OBSERVERS                   
REPORTED NO INDICATION THAT FOG WAS GOING TO LIFT ANYTIME SOON. KEPT            
THE FOG MENTION UNTIL 18Z. OTHERWISE...MIXED MID CLOUDS AND                     
DISSIPATING LOWER CLOUDS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.                         
NEXT PCPN CHANCE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND MORE LIKELY               
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM AND GFS INDICATE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN AFTER                
TROUGH PASSAGE OVR W UPR MI. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DRY AIR H9-H7 WILL               
PROHIBIT MUCH PCPN OVR E HALF OF CWA UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT. DID               
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW                   
TONIGHT. NEXT SHIFT MAY TWEAK TIMING A BIT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE PRECIPITATION                
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                
WATER VAPOR AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN              
THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS. ONE OF THESE IS OVER                 
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE OTHERS ARE OVER EAST CENTRAL                       
ONTARIO...NORTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHERN IDAHO. A WEAK BROAD RIDGE IS              
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A            
LOW OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH                 
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...INTO NEBRASKA. A STATIONARY FRONT                  
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
CANADA.                                                                         
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EASTERN ONTARIO WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN                      
QUEBEC...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA DEEPENS OVER                     
MINNESOTA AND A RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CANADIAN ROCKIES.            
THE MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF MINNESOTA               
INTO CENTRAL LAKES SUPERIOR DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL                
U.P. THE WEST END OF THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND                    
DISSIPATE. A BROAD RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING AND            
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NAM/GFS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL BE             
DRY LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. A SURFACE BASED INVERSION IN THE MORNING              
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND PRODUCE SOME              
PATCHY FOG...BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.                 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND MOVE INTO THE                     
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH                
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST                    
SOUNDINGS SHOWING A MOISTENING UP OF THE SURFACE-500MB LAYER                    
STARTING OVER THE WEST AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST            
AREA OVERNIGHT. SOUNDING INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE                 
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE EVENING...AND COOLING OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING                
THAT THERE MAY BE A MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW              
MAINLY OVER THE WEST.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN INTO A CUTOFF LOW AS IT SWEEP THROUGH THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THIS                
SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO                  
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT TO THE EAST COAST. THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE                
WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...THERE SHOULD BE A              
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN             
TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PRODUCING A LAKE-850MB               
DELTA-T TO AROUND 13C WHICH WOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME LAKE EFFECTS.                
THE SHORTWAVE WILL TREK SLOWLY INTO EASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT.               
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EDGE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE              
850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME FOCUSED OVER THE FORECAST AREA                  
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A DELTA-T OF AROUND 17C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL BE LIMITED AS THE SURFACE-500MB RH WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT.              
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS                     
RELATIVELY DRY...LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT WILL BE LIMITED.                       
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST             
ON SATURDAY...WHILE A RIDGE CONTINUES TO GROW OVER THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY              
OVER THE EAST END OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD END THE SNOW FROM               
WEST TO EAST.                                                                   
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST             
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE EAST                  
COAST. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESS CENTER IS TRACKING INTO THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL RH WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN U.P.               
LATE. ON SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE             
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE            
SURFACE RIDGE WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL             
TEND TO KEEP THE AIR MASS STABLE. GFS SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF                  
MOISTURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER LAKE                
SUPERIOR. STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE GRIDS...SO WILL LEAVE IT            
IN THERE FOR NOW.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...DLG                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
905 AM MST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...FOR TODAY...                              
UPDATED...MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATIONARY COLD FRONT HAS                  
CREATED A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA                  
THEREFORE EXPANDED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY. UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES               
EAST AND DEEPENS INTO A TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
TODAY. THIS WILL TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY EAST. REST OF FORECAST IS              
IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE NO OTHER CHANGES. SCT                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NONE OF THE MODELS             
HAVE PICKED UP ON BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL                   
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH GFS HAS A STRONGER HINT OF                  
SUPPORT FOR IT. ASIDE FROM THIS...MODELS IN REASONABLE                          
AGREEMENT...LOOKING AT BOTH GFS AND NAM BUT LEANING A BIT MORE                  
TOWARD GFS.                                                                     
TODAY...ALBERTA CLIPPER RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY            
THIS MORNING AS A FLAT...AND DIRTY...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS AND              
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.            
FORECAST OF FLURRIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW BASED PARTLY ON                  
PERSISTENCE AND PARTLY ON HINT OF A BAND WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY               
ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUPPORT             
SMUDGE OF POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL CWA...BUT HAVE BACKED               
OFF EARLIER FORECAST VALUES. RUC AND NAM ARE DRY...DO NOT DO MUCH               
WITH THIS FEATURE...WHILE CHRONICALLY MORE MOIST GFS WRINGS A                   
LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE OUT OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF             
FORECAST AREA. CALLING FOR PRECIP TO BE SNOW/FLURRIES...MAXIMA RISE             
ABOVE FREEZING OVER SOUTHEAST BUT BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS DRY ENOUGH TO            
ALLOW EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR ANY SHOWERS...HENCE SNOW. EXPECT THAT             
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING TODAY...COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL               
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE BACKED OFF WINDS ON ACCOUNT OF MORE CLOUDS              
INHIBITING MIXING FROM DIURNAL HEATING AND QUICKER RELAXATION OF                
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CLIPPER THAN HAD BEEN            
THOUGHT EARLIER.                                                                
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DIRTY RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS FROM                
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH PERIOD. MODELS...                   
ESPECIALLY GFS...TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW DROPS OR FLAKES FROM WEAK             
IMPULSES THAN MANAGE TO PERIODICALLY CROSS THROUGH RIDGE...BUT                  
DISCOUNTING ALL SUCH FEATURES. WILL SEE VARYING CLOUDS...GENERALLY              
INCREASING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH PERIOD AS                
UPPER FLOW BACKS WITH EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF RIDGE. EXPECT A WEAK LEE             
TROUGH TO FORM FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS CENTER             
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF REGION. WITH CORE OF                   
SURFACE HIGH SOUTH OF REGION RATHER THAN DUE EAST...LEE TROUGH NOT              
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.              
THUS...WHILE EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW TO PREVAIL AS               
WELL AS TYPICAL CHANNELLED EASTERLY FLOW IN MILK/MISSOURI RIVER                 
VALLEYS...PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO FAVOR FAIRLY LIGHT CHANNELED             
EASTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD A BIT PROBLEMATIC               
DUE TO CLOUDS...HAVE GENERALLY GONE A BIT BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR            
BOTH MAXIMA AND MINIMA...BUT MODEL PERFORMANCE ON TEMPERATURES HAS              
NOT BEEN STELLAR DURING THIS RECENT WARM SPELL. MOS TREND HAS BEEN              
WARMER RUN TO RUN...HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND...ESPECIALLY OVER                  
SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT TYPICALLY HAVE BETTER MIXING THAN NORTHEAST                
VALLEYS WHERE MIXING OFTEN INHIBITED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...                                   
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AND                
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS             
SYSTEM THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND EXITS TO THE EAST                  
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS A BIT SUNDAY AS SYSTEM BEGINNING              
TO LOOK A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY INTO                  
TUESDAY THEN A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATE TUESDAY. NICE             
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR TUESDAY AS WE RECOVER FROM SUNDAYS FRONTAL               
PASSAGE. RIDGE GETS BROKEN DOWN WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE               
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE A WEST COAST TROF DEEPENS               
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THINGS DRY AS ENERGY               
COULD VERY WELL SPLIT AND LEAVE US IN THE DRY MIDDLE. IT DOES APPEAR            
THO THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE COLDER THAN THIS WEEK...WITH SOME                    
INDICATIONS THAT BY WEEKS END WE COULD HAVE COLDER AIR MOVING IN                
THAN WE HAVE HAD IN THE LAST MONTH OR SO AS PATTERN BECOMES MORE                
CONDUCIVE TO ARCTIC INTRUSION. HOW LONG CAN WE CONTINUE TO LIVE                 
LARGE IN MID-WINTER?                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR AT TIMES THRU MID-MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES IN WAKE             
OF WEAK FRONT/UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSAGE LAST EVENING. VFR ALL SITES             
LATE MORNING ONWARD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
755 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA           
WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES NOTED AHEAD OF FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN            
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF               
MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OF CWFA WITH A BRIEF RIBBON OF BROKEN/SCATTERED              
CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA PROVINCE.          
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT CONCERNS DEGREE/AREAL COVERAGE OF             
CLOUDS AND RESULTANT LOW TEMPERATURES. 00Z RUC MODEL SUGGESTS 1000-             
850MB WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH COLDEST READINGS FROM THE NORTHERN            
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS           
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER MERCURY DESCENT. WILL MONITOR CLOUD             
COVER AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS DURING THIS EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS           
POINT TO UPDATE TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AND RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS            
THE NORTH WITH ARRIVAL OF LOWER/THICKER CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTHERN MB.            
&&                                                                              
EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF IFR             
CONDITONS MAINLY EAST OF THE VALLEY FROM PARK RAPIDS NORTHWARD.                 
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
932 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR                     
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS HAS EXPIRED. THE WIND                 
ADVISORY FOR SW OK AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL BE                     
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON                   
KFDR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ADDED MENTION OF AN ISOLATED                 
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. AS DRY AS IT HAS               
BEEN...THAT IS ALL THAT IS LIKELY TO REACH THE GROUND. INCREASED                
CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...RAIN/SLEET ACROSS NORTH                    
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE                          
CWA...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 720 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN             
NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO              
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN                     
OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS              
OF COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE OKC               
METRO AREA.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS                    
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7             
DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION               
AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS               
AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE               
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                  
THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE                 
PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED                
WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD              
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL              
SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS               
AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.              
THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT                 
SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST              
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE              
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE               
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN              
OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF            
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH                     
MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US               
OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN              
NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED                
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH                 
RANGE.                                                                          
IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE             
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER            
THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE             
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO               
SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY                  
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE              
IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN                    
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH                   
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL                   
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN               
OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER                 
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND                  
MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL                 
START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY                 
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE               
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY             
WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED                 
RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT            
FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE                
BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO             
LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A                    
STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON            
FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                                                
ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL                  
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH            
FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION              
OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER             
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH              
TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  56  27  64 /  10   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         34  59  28  65 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  60  28  68 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           24  57  24  66 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     34  53  25  63 /  90   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         43  58  31  66 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ037-OKZ038-              
     OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045.                                                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ084-TXZ085-              
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/07                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
720 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN             
NORTH TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. ALSO              
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN                     
OKLAHOMA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS              
OF COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED POPS SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE OKC               
METRO AREA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS                    
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7             
DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION               
AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS               
AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE               
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                  
THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE                 
PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED                
WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD              
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL              
SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS               
AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.              
THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT                 
SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST              
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE              
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE               
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN              
OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF            
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH                     
MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US               
OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN              
NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED                
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH                 
RANGE.                                                                          
IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE             
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER            
THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE             
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO               
SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY                  
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE              
IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN                    
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH                   
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL                   
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN               
OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER                 
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND                  
MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL                 
START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY                 
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE               
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY             
WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED                 
RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT            
FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE                
BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO             
LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A                    
STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON            
FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                                                
ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL                  
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH            
FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION              
OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER             
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH              
TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  56  27  64 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         34  59  28  65 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  60  28  68 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           28  57  24  66 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     34  53  25  63 /  90   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         43  58  31  66 /  20   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009-               
     OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036.                                                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028-            
     OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-                   
     OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-                   
     OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                                      
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ037-OKZ038-              
     OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045.                                                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.                      
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ084-TXZ085-              
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/07                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
634 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS TO RAISE POPS TO REFLECT ONGOING PRECIP ACROSS                    
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7             
DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION               
AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS               
AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE               
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                  
THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE                 
PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED                
WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD              
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL              
SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS               
AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.              
THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT                 
SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST              
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE              
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE               
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN              
OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF            
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH                     
MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US               
OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN              
NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED                
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH                 
RANGE.                                                                          
IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE             
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER            
THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE             
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO               
SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY                  
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE              
IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN                    
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH                   
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL                   
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN               
OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER                 
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND                  
MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL                 
START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY                 
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE               
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY             
WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED                 
RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT            
FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE                
BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO             
LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A                    
STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON            
FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                                                
ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL                  
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH            
FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION              
OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER             
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH              
TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  56  27  64 /  10   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         34  59  28  65 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  60  28  68 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           28  57  24  66 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     34  53  25  63 /  80   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         43  58  31  66 /  20   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009-               
     OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036.                                                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028-            
     OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-                   
     OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-                   
     OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.                      
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/07                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
346 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A LOT OF WEATHER TO THINK ABOUT IN THE NEXT 7            
DAYS...BUT THE FORECAST STILL BOILS DOWN TO MINIMAL PRECIPITATION               
AND THE CONTINUATION OF EXTREME FIRE DANGER. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY                
WILL BE IN THE UPPER END OF THE EXTREME CATEGORY WITH GUSTY WINDS               
AND LOW HUMIDITY. A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE               
WAY TO ANOTHER WARM UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                  
THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE                 
PLAINS EVERY FEW DAYS WITH A SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED                
WINDS...BUT EACH SYSTEM TENDS TO HAVE TROUBLE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD              
PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL              
SLOW DOWN TO ALLOW RECOVERY OF GULF MOISTURE EXCEPT IN EAST TEXAS               
AND ARKANSAS. THE STORY THEN BECOMES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW            
SHOWERS IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.              
THIS WILL BE THE CASE BOTH TONIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL                
SHIFT SUDDENLY TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WIND SHIFT                 
SHOULD ARRIVE AT I-44 JUST BEFORE 6 PM...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REST              
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS BY 9 PM. LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE              
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE               
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN OR ELEVATED TERRAIN. PARTS OF WESTERN              
OKLAHOMA MAY EVEN GUST TO 45 MPH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE BELT OF            
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE PANHANDLE. ENOUGH                     
MESONET STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED AND GUST CRITERIA TO PUSH US               
OVER TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A PART OF WESTERN              
NORTH TEXAS. ALSO...WITH THE NUMBER OF ONGOING FIRES AND DELAYED                
DIRECTIONAL WIND SHIFT...WILL EXTEND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO 9 PM               
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GUSTINESS TO DIMINISH                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH                 
RANGE.                                                                          
IN THE SOUTHEAST...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                  
AROUND ATOKA AND DURANT. MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CATCHING UP ON THE             
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER            
THAN EXPECTED...NEARLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT PER SATELLITE. THE             
LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO               
SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE EAST VERY                  
QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE              
IN PLACE FOR A STRONG STORM TO BRIEFLY AFFECT ATOKA OR BRYAN                    
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING THROUGH                   
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS UNDER A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL                   
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
WITH THE DEEPER STORM SYSTEM...THE STRONGER NAM/ETA WINDS MAY PAN               
OUT FOR FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER                 
SIGNIFICANTLY...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY AROUND                  
MIDDAY...WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH TO EXTREME. WINDS WILL                 
START TO DIMINISH BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT BY                 
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP A COLDER NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES                    
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE               
WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER LEE TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING TO              
THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY             
WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS COMING IN DRIER. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SURFACE               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHUT OFF THE GULF MOISTURE...WITH A MODIFIED                 
RETURN BEING DIVERTED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS            
WILL MAKE FOR A DRY...WARM...AND WINDY WEEKEND. BASED ON THE CURRENT            
FORECAST GRIDS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY BE                
BORDERLINE. WITH SATURDAY BEING THE COOLER DAY...CONFIDENCE WAS TOO             
LOW TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A                    
STRONGER CANDIDATE FOR A WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO MAKE A DECISION ON            
FRIDAY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.                                                
ONCE AGAIN...WRAPAROUND PRECIP MAY REACH NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL                  
OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE COLD ENOUGH            
FOR SNOW. ALTHOUGH LIQUID AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...THE DURATION              
OF THE EVENT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ANOTHER             
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH              
TEMPERATURES WARMING AHEAD OF IT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  56  27  64 /  10   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         34  59  28  65 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  38  60  28  68 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           28  57  24  66 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     34  53  25  63 /  30   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         43  58  31  66 /  20   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ009-               
     OKZ010-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036.                                                             
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ027-OKZ028-            
     OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-                   
     OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-                   
     OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                                      
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083.                      
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-            
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
136 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AND HUMIDITIES BELOW 20 PERCENT PREVAIL               
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THE EXISTING RED FLAG                  
WARNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT THAT IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE OVER                
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH EXTREME NORTHWEST PARTS             
OF THE EXPANDING RED FLAG WARNING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...                  
BELIEVE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WILL PREVAIL LONG ENOUGH WHERE A                   
SLIGHTLY LARGER RED FLAG WARNING IS WARRANTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.            
WILL MONITOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO              
THE EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY BE REQUIRED BASED ON SLOWER FRONTAL                 
PASSAGE. STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WINDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE            
COLD FRONT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH               
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. NOT OUT              
OF THE QUESTIONS THAT SPEEDS COULD PUSH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.                 
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ013-OKZ014-          
     OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020.                                 
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-          
     OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-                   
     OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-                   
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-                   
     OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                        
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-          
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
JAMES                                                                           
--------------------------                                                      
1015 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
PROGRESSIVE 125 KT UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A             
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND IS            
LIFTING A DEEP/HIGH-BASED MOISTURE PLUME TO EXPAND/ADVECT OVER THE              
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DRYLINE IS SETTING             
UP BETWEEN STILLWATER AND ARDMORE WITH A MODEST PRESSURE FALL/RISE              
COUPLET ACROSS KANSAS.                                                          
LATEST TRENDS AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER             
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 3 TO 5               
HRS SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREME/             
CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF              
THE AREA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...AND ALTUS...               
WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT. SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE             
NOT ONLY IMPLIES A LATER WIND SHIFT...BUT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MORE                 
EXTREME WILDFIRE CONDITIONS EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN                  
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND SHOULD EASILY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN                    
PERIPHERY OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BY AFTERNOON.                                 
REDUCED INSOLATION ACCOMPANYING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND HIGHER               
HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA              
FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 70. ALTHOUGH THE RUC/NAM INDICATE THE                    
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD EASILY               
REACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR            
40...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE AIR WILL MIX MOST                
DEEPLY. REGIONAL PROFILERS/88D VWP ALREADY SHOW 35-45 KT WINDS 1-3              
KFT ABOVE GROUND. LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCIES OVER KANSAS/INTENSE                
UPPER JET SUPPORT THESE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                  
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY                       
PERSISTING EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AFTER 3 PM.                                    
THE NEARBY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WOODWARD BY NOON...                  
PONCA CITY...KINGFISHER...ERICK BY 3 PM...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY               
...WICHITA FALLS BY 6 PM....ATOKA AND DURANT BY 9 PM. HOWEVER                   
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/DIGGING NATURE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS SLOWER.                
GRIDS MAY BE UPDATED LATER IF FUTURE TRENDS SUPPORT AN EVEN SLOWER              
FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                                
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
422 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY IS BACK TO FIRE WEATHER. WINDS WILL INCREASE               
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO                
THE NORTH. PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA                   
BRINGING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY                
MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACCORDING TO THE HOLLIS                       
MESONET... AND THE DEWPOINT AT LUBBOCK IS CURRENTLY -1. VERY LOW                
RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY... AND WILL LIKELY PUSH               
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. EVEN BEING SOMEWHAT GENEROUS               
WITH THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW 20 PERCENT                
SOUTH OF A CHANDLER TO OKC TO ELK CITY LINE. WILL EXPAND THE RED                
FLAG WARNING UP TO THAT LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING                 
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA                  
TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURE/RH VALUES LESS EXTREME IN                
THE NORTH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPERATURES               
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.                                                       
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROUBLE FOR                  
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY              
SYSTEM. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SURFACE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE                  
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THE                 
BEST MOISTURE EAST. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO WILL NOT BUY IN               
ON SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS YET... BUT WILL LOWER POPS                
SLIGHTLY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT                 
FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY IF               
WE DO INDEED GET A STRONG SURFACE DRY PUSH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  34  56  29 /   0   5   0   0                              
HOBART OK         67  31  57  29 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  36  61  30 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           60  26  54  26 /   5   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  31  51  28 /  10  10   0   0                              
DURANT OK         73  41  59  32 /   5  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ037-OKZ044-OKZ045.                                        
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-                   
     OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-                   
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-                   
     TXZ089-TXZ090.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/26                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1015 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
PROGRESSIVE 125 KT UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS ALLOWING A             
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY OVER COLORADO/NEW MEXICO AND IS            
LIFTING A DEEP/HIGH-BASED MOISTURE PLUME TO EXPAND/ADVECT OVER THE              
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE DRYLINE IS SETTING             
UP BETWEEN STILLWATER AND ARDMORE WITH A MODEST PRESSURE FALL/RISE              
COUPLET ACROSS KANSAS.                                                          
LATEST TRENDS AND MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER             
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ABOUT 3 TO 5               
HRS SLOWER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE EXTREME/             
CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF              
THE AREA INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS...LAWTON...DUNCAN...AND ALTUS...               
WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT. SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE             
NOT ONLY IMPLIES A LATER WIND SHIFT...BUT MAY ALSO SUPPORT MORE                 
EXTREME WILDFIRE CONDITIONS EXTENDING A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN                  
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT AND SHOULD EASILY OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN                    
PERIPHERY OF THE RED FLAG WARNING BY AFTERNOON.                                 
REDUCED INSOLATION ACCOMPANYING EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND HIGHER               
HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO PREVENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA              
FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE 70. ALTHOUGH THE RUC/NAM INDICATE THE                    
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD EASILY               
REACH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR            
40...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE AIR WILL MIX MOST                
DEEPLY. REGIONAL PROFILERS/88D VWP ALREADY SHOW 35-45 KT WINDS 1-3              
KFT ABOVE GROUND. LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCIES OVER KANSAS/INTENSE                
UPPER JET SUPPORT THESE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                  
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW LIKELY                       
PERSISTING EAST OF INTERSTATE 44 AFTER 3 PM.                                    
THE NEARBY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH WOODWARD BY NOON...                  
PONCA CITY...KINGFISHER...ERICK BY 3 PM...SEMINOLE...PAULS VALLEY               
...WICHITA FALLS BY 6 PM....ATOKA AND DURANT BY 9 PM. HOWEVER                   
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/DIGGING NATURE OF DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
MAY ALLOW THE FRONT TO COME THROUGH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 HOURS SLOWER.                
GRIDS MAY BE UPDATED LATER IF FUTURE TRENDS SUPPORT AN EVEN SLOWER              
FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                                
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
422 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ISSUE FOR TODAY IS BACK TO FIRE WEATHER. WINDS WILL INCREASE               
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TODAY AS SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO                
THE NORTH. PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA                   
BRINGING VERY LOW DEWPOINTS. SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY                
MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ACCORDING TO THE HOLLIS                       
MESONET... AND THE DEWPOINT AT LUBBOCK IS CURRENTLY -1. VERY LOW                
RH VALUES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY... AND WILL LIKELY PUSH               
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS WELL. EVEN BEING SOMEWHAT GENEROUS               
WITH THE DAYTIME DEWPOINTS... RH VALUES FALL TO BELOW 20 PERCENT                
SOUTH OF A CHANDLER TO OKC TO ELK CITY LINE. WILL EXPAND THE RED                
FLAG WARNING UP TO THAT LINE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPING                 
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA                  
TODAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE                
FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURE/RH VALUES LESS EXTREME IN                
THE NORTH. COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPERATURES               
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.                                                       
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF TROUBLE FOR                  
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY              
SYSTEM. CURRENT PROGS SHOW THE SURFACE DRYLINE MOVING INTO THE                  
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH THE                 
BEST MOISTURE EAST. IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO WILL NOT BUY IN               
ON SPECIFIC SURFACE FEATURE POSITIONS YET... BUT WILL LOWER POPS                
SLIGHTLY EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT                 
FEW DAYS. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALSO AFFECT FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY IF               
WE DO INDEED GET A STRONG SURFACE DRY PUSH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  34  56  29 /   0   5   0   0                              
HOBART OK         67  31  57  29 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  76  36  61  30 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           60  26  54  26 /   5   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     62  31  51  28 /  10  10   0   0                              
DURANT OK         73  41  59  32 /   5  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ037-OKZ044-OKZ045.                                        
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-                   
     OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-                   
     OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                                 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS                  
     AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-                   
     TXZ089-TXZ090.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24/26                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
932 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAPID MOISTURE RETURN ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH               
MID 50 DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS. ONGOING                  
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED               
...HOWEVER NEW 12Z NAM/RUC CATCHING UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS...ADVECTING          
MID TO UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA /WEST-                    
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP               
CONCERNING THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER                  
WILL KEEP ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA GIVEN                 
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WILL              
BE CLOSE TO MEETING 3 OF THE 4 CRITERIA WITH TEMPS...WINDS AND                  
KBDI.                                                                           
NEXT CONCERN BECOMES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR                
EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST                    
OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT                 
MOVES BEFORE THUNDERSTORM INITIATE. LATEST DATA SUGGEST THAT THE                
CAP WILL BE BROKEN AROUND 00Z WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY                       
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS/FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.                 
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN                 
MUCAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER                   
SHEAR. THE STORMS HOWEVER MAY PUSH JUST EAST OF CWA BEFORE                      
REACHING SEVERE LIMITS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK THIS MORNING AND                
MAY ADD SEVERE CHANCES TO HWO FOR AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ALREADY                  
UPDATED ZFP/AFM/PFM/FWF TO REFLECT HIGHER RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON              
AND TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST                    
ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-             
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-                   
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-                   
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.                                        
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 12                                                    
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1000 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND 200MB RUC                        
WIND/WINDSPEED ANALYSIS INDICATED THE SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS                    
NORTHERN MEXICO BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO TEXAS THIS              
MORNING. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SKIES            
WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO                 
LIFT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS ABOVE              
THE SURFACE MIX DOWN WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS              
TODAY...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH HIGH                 
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX. WITH THE            
LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTH WINDS...TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE                    
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS             
IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST CLOUDS AND                  
TEMPS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASED INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT                
RANGE LAST NIGHT OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS               
ARE EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE                  
LIGHTER OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20               
KNOT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE            
THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE MORNING TOMORROW. WINDS                 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL KICK             
UP TO AROUND 9 FEET AT BUOY 020 FOR A FEW HOURS. A HIGH PRESSURE                
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THAT             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THE KBRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT 12Z REVEALED A 35 KNOT               
LOW LEVEL JET ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BETWEEN FL020-040            
WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THESE LLWS CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY                    
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT            
THE CAMERON COUNTY BRO/HRL/PIL TERMINALS AND TO 15 KNOTS AT INLAND              
TERMINALS SUCH AS MFE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT AND BEGIN VEERING TO            
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE                
THROUGH LATER ON FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING A SIX HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTY            
NORTH WINDS TO THE VALLEY. NO CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH               
THE FRONT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006/                          
A 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY AND                
TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS LATER             
TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY                 
MORNING.  BOTH THE ETA AND GFS USHER IN AN AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF               
THE FRONT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN MORE              
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY.  THE ETA IS A LITTLE                 
COOLER IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS FOR POST-FRONTAL HIGHS...BUT BOTH               
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  SO WILL STICK               
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR MINS. CONSIDERING THE SOURCE REGION FOR THE               
SURFACE HIGH SPREADING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS FAIRLY              
MILD WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.  ALSO...FAIRLY               
DRY SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE MERCURY TO MODERATE FAIRLY            
QUICKLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS AND                      
INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP THE FOG POTENTIAL UP FOR THIS MORNING            
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSER FOG WILL BE FRIDAY               
MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DECOUPLES AND            
THE INCREASED DEWPOINTS PERSIST. SO FAR THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER             
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SERIOUS FOG FORMATION THIS              
MORNING.  500 MILLIBAR RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN OVER THE CENTRAL              
U.S. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS DIGS INTO THE                
WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH DIGS STEADILY ACROSS THE                
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH USHERS THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT             
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.  ONCE AGAIN...THE 500 MILLIBAR FLOW               
PATTERN RETURNS QUICKLY BACK TO INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE GULF                 
COAST FOR NEXT WED AND THUR.  THIS OVERALL PATTERN KEEPS ANY SERIOUS            
COLD AIR ADVECTION SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THE AREA AND MAINTAIN                  
OVERALL TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS                
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALSO BE LIMITED DUE TO THE FAST PROGRESSION OF            
TROUGHS FROM WEST TO EAST KEEPS A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN IN PLACE.  THE             
BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION  WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT FOR                 
MONDAY AND WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ130.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
61/69/VEGA                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1055 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST VISIBILE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS                   
IOWA...ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN                 
RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AS             
INDICATED BY THE 15Z RUC. LATEST 12Z NAM/GFS AND 15Z RUC MOVE DRY               
SLOT FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA BY 21Z. LATEST            
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH MORE SUN            
THAN CLOUDS. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR LESS CLOUDS ACROSS FORECAST AREA            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
DTJ                                                                             
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                            
FORECAST CONCERNS WERE PRIMARILY WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.                          
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG THE              
NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD              
ACROSS THE PLAINS. 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MID AND            
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE MILD AND IN THE UPPER 20S            
TO THE LOWER 30S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SHORT WAVE ADVANCING               
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS                 
MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.                                         
00Z 12JAN06 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR                
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOR EXAMPLE...850MB             
TEMPERATURES WERE 8C AT KMSP AND 11C AT KDVN...WHICH GFS AND NAM                
INITIALIZED WELL. IN ADDITION...THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPEARED TO               
HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. THE UKMET...              
ECMWF...GFS AND NAM HAD GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE                  
AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES NEXT 24-36HRS. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE              
WAS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO OVERFALL DETAILS IN CURRENT DATA BASE.                 
TODAY...YET ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED.               
IN FACT...850MB TEMPERATURES OF 6C-8C WILL BE COMMON...WITH VALUES              
EVEN REACHING 10C FROM KLSE TO POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. PREFERRED THE             
GFS MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH APPEARS TO REFLECT MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME FOR           
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE...RAISED VALUES FOR LA CROSSE AREA              
AND POINTS EAST AND SOUTH. IN THESE LOCATIONS...RECORD HIGHS WERE               
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50...SO ADDED NEAR RECORD WORDING TO           
TEXT OF THESE ZONES.                                                            
TONIGHT...MODELS DEPICTED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL.                 
FORCING APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FN CONVERGENCE IN THE 850-700MB           
AND 700-500MB LAYERS. BASED ON THIS...OPTED TO NUDGE PRECIPITATION              
PROBABILITIES UPWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH FN CONVERGENCE SIGNAL.                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN OR SNOW            
INITIALLY...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN.               
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXTEND CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW A BIT LONGER INTO              
THE EVENING FOR SUCH LOCATIONS AS KLSE.                                         
FRIDAY...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH Q-G CONVERGENCE EXITS DURING THE               
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON.            
THEREFORE...MAINTAINED TREND OF ENDING PRECIPITATION AS PREVIOUS ARX            
FORECASTER HAD BEGUN. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUPPORTED ABUNDANT             
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO             
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT.                          
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                           
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THERE SHOULD BE A STORM SYSTEM             
TO MOVE THROUGH CENTER PART OF THE NATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF              
THE WEEK. BIGGEST QUESTION IN THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE WITH DETAILS              
OF THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE WAVE. IN FACT...BY 00Z              
18JAN06 THE GFS DEPICTED A 989MB LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...            
WHILE THE ECMWF HAD 1002MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DUE TO THESE               
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AND THUS NO               
CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
340 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS              
ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS              
WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL            
RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE               
CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS            
AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED            
TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY              
NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE             
LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT                
TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE               
THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW              
WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS                 
EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV               
NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS                
SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
330 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES A STRONG PATTERN              
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY. WITH                 
STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE DYNAMICS AND SOME RETURN OF GULF RH INTO THE              
AREA...A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG             
AND AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MILD READINGS IN THE 55 TO              
60 DEGREE RANGE TODAY EVEN WITH THE WIDESPREAD PCPN. WINDY AT TIMES             
TODAY WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                  
TONIGHT...WITH MORE WINTER LIKE COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE                
FA...AND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WRAP AROUND PCPN...WE WENT                
FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE. JUST HOW MUCH AND WHERE THIS WRAP              
AROUND PCPN OCCURS IS STILL IN DOUBT. LATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION                  
TRENDS FROM HPC MORE OR LESS WENT ALONG WITH THE 00Z ETA...AND                  
REMOVED THE SNOW THREAT OVER THE BLUEGRASS...BUT WE DO NOT AGREE.               
SO WE DECIDED TO GO WITH AROUND A INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE               
FA...LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING FA'S              
TOO. A SECOND PROBLEM FOR THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD IS THE STRONG AND                
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. --21                                
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY)                                                            
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE ISSUES WITH THE SYSTEM PULLING OFF TOWARDS              
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z GFS/UKMET              
SOLUTION...WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SREF...AND 48 HR RUC. THE NAM12 HAS            
DROPPED UPPER LEVEL LOW TOO FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN GULF STATES.                
WENT SLIGHTLY UNDER LOW END OF MOS WITH HIGHS SATURDAY...MOS CAN                
UNDERPLAY STRONG CAA. LIKED COOLER ETA MOS SUNDAY MORN LOWS...AND               
THEN USED MOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY HIGHS.                                           
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOWLY PULLING EASTWARDS ACROSS THE                     
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF            
DURING THE MORNING...ENDING BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION            
OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMS POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD              
BE AROUND A FEW TENTHS TO AN HALF OF AN INCH...MAINLY ACROSS THE LEX            
AREA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING BUT A FEW              
DEGREES...ALONG WITH LOW OVERCAST LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING             
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH SOME CLEARING                
OVERNIGHT AND THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TEMPS WILL BE               
ABLE TO DROP INTO THE 20S.                                                      
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...WITH WAA DEVELOPING DURING            
THE DAY AND A DECENT JUMP OF H85 TEMPS FROM -2 C SATURDAY NIGHT TO              
+3C OR 4C BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME              
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.              
--SCHOTT                                                                        
.IN THE EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                        
EXTENDED MODELS STILL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...LIKE A BLEND OF            
THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE 18Z NCEP ENSEMBLES. THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY                  
CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST. A FEW SMALL TWEAKS TO THE                     
TEMPS...AND ADJUSTMENT TO POPS ON TUESDAY WITH CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS            
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. A NEW TREND OCCURRED IN THE                         
TELECONNECTIONS TODAY WITH AO/NAO/PNA STILL SHOWING WARMER TREND                
THRU ABOUT THE NEXT TEN DAYS...THEN POSSIBLE SOME ACTUAL REAL WINTER            
AROUND THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH. ANOTHER INTERESTING CURVE WOULD              
BE A STRONGER AND MORE ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET...POSSIBLE DUE TO WEAK LA            
NINA WHICH HAS SET UP...USUALLY IT MEANS SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WETTER             
THAN NORMAL...BUT JUST SOMETHING EXTRA TO THINK ABOUT THRU THE REST             
OF THE WINTER SEASON.                                                           
STRONG SW FLOW (WAA) MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE              
NORMAL AND TAP GULF MOISTURE AND BRING IT NORTH INTO THE OH                     
VALLEY...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...EVEN AN ISOLTD THUNDERSTORM            
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH            
EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE REGION TUESDAY..COLD FRONT                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE PASSAGE DURING THE LATE                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING...TSTMS AND SHOWERS LIKELY DURING THE DAY. WITH               
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY             
WEDNESDAY. WITH ALOT OF DETAILS TO BE SETTLED...HAVE JUST MENTIONED             
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW            
FLURRIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORN..WITH MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL                 
TROUGH LEAVING THE OH VALLEY TO THE EAST. DRIER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC               
FLOW WILL SET UP WED AFTERNOON AND START TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL                 
CLOUDS.                                                                         
WSW OR SW FLOW WILL RUN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A WARMING                 
TREND INTO THE EARLY WKEND WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +6C BY FRIDAY.                 
--SCHOTT                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TODAY AND LES POTENTIAL                
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.                                                         
WV IMAGERY...00Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LVL TROF                
OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM RDGING OVER THE WEST. A                    
VIGOROUS SHRTWV WAS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROF INTO MO                 
WHILE A MORE SHEARED NRN STREAM SHRTWV EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO                
INTO CNTRL MN. ANOTHER WEAK SHEARED SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SASK.               
AT THE SFC(07Z)...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSE FROM LOW PRES OVER NE LK            
SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH NW WINDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE WEST...UPSTREAM            
TEMPS WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. COMBINATION OF                   
QVECTOR CONV AND 700-600 FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE MN SHRTWV AND               
UPR LVL DIV WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTO NRN ONTARIO               
SUPPORTED UPWARD MOTION WITH BAND WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM WRN              
WI INTO W UPR MI. HOWEVER...RADARS AND SFC OBS SHOWED LITTLE OR NO              
PCPN. WITH VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PER 02Z KSAW TAMDAR AND            
00Z KGRB SNDGS...BETTER SATURATION LAGGED FARTHER TO THE WEST INTO              
THE COLDER AIR. KMQT VAD WND PRFL INDICATED HGT OF LOWEST RETURNS               
LOWERING FROM 15K TO 7K FT BTWN 06Z-08Z.                                        
TODAY...BOTH THE GFS AND 00Z/06Z NAM CONTINUED TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE             
WITH PCPN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS TO AROUND                
0.10 INCH OVER THE WEST BY 12Z AND OVER MUCH OF CNTRL UPR MI BY 18Z.            
GIVEN DECENT MDLS FCST OF MODERATE MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME INCREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GOING               
SLGT CHANCE/PATCHY COVERAGE STILL SEEMS ON TRACK. SINCE ANY PCPN                
SHOULD BE LIGHT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WOULD BE WEAK...LEAVING                   
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR              
WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MID 30S. ALSO...GIVEN DECENT AMOUNT             
OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...IF 900-750 MB LYR REMAINS DRY...POTENTIAL                 
REMAINS FOR SOME -FZDZ INLAND. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS FCST TO               
SLIDE FROM THE W CWA TO THE E BTWN 09Z-18Z. WITH DRYING IN THE -8C              
TO -10C LYR...SOME -FZDZ/-DZ WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTH WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LVL LAKE                    
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE NRLY UPSLOPE FLOW.                                       
TONIGHT...COMBINATION OF TRAILING SASK SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE WRN               
LAKES AND CAA EVENTUALLY DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -10C (MDL              
CONSENSUS) SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME WEAK LES AND MINIMIZE               
-FZDZ POTENTIAL. WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ONLY CHANCE POPS                
WERE INCLUDED WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB AN             
INCH. MAINLY 330 FLOW SHOULD FAVOR LOCATIONS FROM MARQUETTE EASTWARD            
WITH MORE FAVORABLE FETCH LENGTH AND PROXIMITY TO THE H8 THERMAL                
TROF.                                                                           
SAT...WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...SIDED WITH THE GFS WHICH FCSTS            
A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF THE H8 THERMAL TROF AND LATER BACKING OF LOW              
LVL FLOW. SO...EXPECT SOME WEAK LES TO LINGER OVER THE E HLF IN THE             
MORNING WITH MAINLY FLURRIES BY AFTERNOON.                                      
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS A TROF PUSHES               
THROUGH THE WRN CONUS AND A RDG BUILDS OVER THE MS VALLEY. THE                  
RESULTING WAA PATTERN MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WRN                  
LAKES...PER GFS 290K ISENTROPIC PROGS. WHILE THE GFS MAY BE A BIT               
GENEROUS AGAIN WITH THE QPF WITH DRY LOW LVL ESE FLOW FROM NRN                  
ONTARIO RDG...MENTION OF SLGT -SN CHANCE SEEMS APPROPRIATE SINCE                
OTHER GLBL MDLS (UKMET/CANADIAN) ALSO HINT AT MOISTURE BAND MOVING              
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
847 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS TO JUST BELOW WIND             
ADV CRITERIA TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS.  WINDS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH                
GUSTS TO 35 TO AOA 43 MPH AT THE MOMENT AND FOR MUCH OF THIS                    
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON./REV                                                                  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS              
ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS              
WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL            
RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE               
CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS            
AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED            
TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY              
NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE             
LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT                
TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE               
THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW              
WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS                 
EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV               
NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS                
SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MYERS/REV                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
952 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLDER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHEAST MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED. AS             
OF 15Z...RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDED FROM KSTL TO KUNO. RUC TAKES THE               
925 MB MINUS 2 ISOTHERM ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. THIS            
FORECAST...ALONG WITH 06Z ETA BUFKIT DATA...INDICATES CHANGEOVER                
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY 00Z. EVEN SO...ABOVE FREEZING                
SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATION TO JUST A SLUSHY COATING            
ON THE GRASS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ONGOING CONVECTION IS MAINLY ELEVATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT                   
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE 00Z MODELS ACTUALLY HAVE AN EXCELLENT             
HANDLE ON IT...TRANSITIONING THE NEAR SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE LINE             
AS IT WAS OVER WRN PTNS MO-AR...INTO THE ONGOING ELEVATED SCENARIO              
ACCURATELY. SAID MODELS RACE THE FRONT THRU EARLY THIS AM...AND THE             
CONVECTION WITH IT...AS EWARD MIGRATING 100+ KT JET IN THE PLAINS               
PUSHES UPPER LOW INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WL CAUSE A MOMENTARY              
PAUSE OR AT LEAST LULL IN PCPN CHANCES...UNTIL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE             
IS DRAWN SOUTHWARD BY UPPER LOW. THAT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS PM AND              
INTO TONIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/NAM NOW HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. LOWER                
THERMO PROFILE SUGGESTS FALLING SNOW WL MELT THIS PM...BUT AS                   
SURFACE TEMPS COOL INTO 30S TONIGHT...WL MAINTAIN RA OR SN MENTION.             
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ABOUT THE BEST QPF THAT IS SQUEEZED OUT IS A              
TENTH/INCH...SO WE DON'T THINK WE ARE TALKING APPRECIABLE                       
ACCUMULATIONS (>1") EVEN IN THE BEST SCENARIO.                                  
THAT LOW THEN PUSHES WELL TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE            
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE RESULT WL BE A MODERATING               
AIR MASS WORKING IN WEST-TO-EAST THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO                
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY SUNDAY. THAT WL BE JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT            
INCOMING SYSTEM WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES SUN NIGHT-TUE                  
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE STILL HONING IN ON THE DETAILS...BUT THE                  
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN/FORECAST IS FOR WAA RAIN CHANCES SUN                   
NIGHT-MON...THEN A CONVECTIVE THREAT W/FROPA MON NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY            
POST FRONTAL/WAKE LOW AND POTENTIALLY 2NDARY LOW PCPN CHANCES                   
TUE-TUE NIGHT. WE WL FOLLOW A PERSISTENCE/COLLABORATIVE STRATEGY                
FORECAST GIVEN THE MODELS LOOSE GRIP ON THE PARTICULARS...WITH THE              
NET RESULT BEING ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO THIS TIME FRAME.                          
FINALLY THE LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST FINISHES OUT DRY AND             
SEASONAL. A BLEND OF MOS WAS USED IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM                        
RANGE...WHICH TRANSITIONED WELL INTO THE NEW 00Z MEX MOS LONG RANGE             
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MY/DH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
545 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUSES ON THE EROSION ON THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS              
THE CWA.  IN THE LONGER TERM...THE QUESTIONS ARE HOW WARM WILL IT               
GET OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW LATE SUNDAY                
NIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                               
BACK EDGE OF THE CLEARING CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF 925 MB             
RIDGE AXIS IN WRN SD. WHILE LOTS OF HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT              
WITH IN STRATUS...EXPECT MOST OF THIS AREA TO ADVECT SOUTHEAST AND              
FILL IN BY SUNRISE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE IN CENTRAL SD WHERE               
THIS CLEARING COULD EXPAND WEST AS WESTERN EDGE OF STRATUS BEGINS TO            
ERODE. SO USING THE 925 MB RIDGE AXIS...HAVE GONE WITH A MUCH SLOWER            
CLEARING THAN SUGGESTED BY EITHER NAM AND GFS. HAVE BACK EDGE OF                
STRATUS REACHING I29 CORRIDOR AROUND NOON AND NOT CLEARING SW MN                
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 925 MB TEMPS AROUND 0C...THIS WILL REALLY            
INHIBIT TEMPS TODAY AND HAVE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...WITH             
NEAR 30 IN SW MN AND MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.                               
SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR SOME MID              
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. ADD LIGHT WINDS              
IN AND IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD RADIATION NIGHT. THE JAMES VALLEY WILL              
HAVE TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STEADY             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL                  
FAIRLY STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG AND             
EAST OF I29 WITH 20S IN THE WEST. THIS WILL MEAN A STRONG INVERSION             
BEING ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I29. IN ADDITION...A            
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS BACKING WINDS TO THE SE AND             
EXCEPT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO FILTER SUNSHINE. DESPITE VERY WARM 850               
MB TEMPS...AM SKEPTICAL THAT TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO BREAK 40 IN SW MN            
ESP SINCE THERE IS STILL SNOWCOVER. EVEN IN MUCH OF NW IA AND                   
ADJACENT AREAS OF SD...WILL NOT CLIMB BEYOND LOWER 40S. WARMEST                 
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ALONG THE MO RIVER WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW AND WINDS            
MAY BE S OR EVEN SW. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WITH             
FAIRLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOME CIRRUS...KEPT            
TEMPS IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT WITH TYPICAL WARMING EAST OF THE BUFFALO             
RIDGE AROUND MML.                                                               
BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE ON CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE              
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FLOW WILL BE INCREASINGLY OUT OF THE EAST            
AND BOTH NAM AND GFS HINT COOLER AIR MAY MOVE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...             
MUCH DENSER MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY AFTERNOON.             
THIS WILL AGAIN SEVERELY LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...ESP NORTH OF I90              
AND KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AGAIN...THE MO                
RIVER VALLEY WILL BE WARMEST BUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN                    
SATURDAY. CYCLONE AND INVERTED TROUGH MOVE INTO ERN SD BY LATE                  
SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMP GRADIENT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE INVERTED                 
TORUGH...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP MAY BE BEHIND THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL                
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOXCIATE WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE REACHES               
THE WRN CWA BY 06Z SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE                 
JAMES RIVER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW                  
ZERO...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. 700 MB TEMP GRADIENT LOOKS TO                 
REMAIN IN ERN SD FOR MUCH OF MONDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR                     
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF I29 AND RAISED POPS TO HIGH                 
CHANCE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER EAST...SNOW MAY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY             
ON MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME DURATION LOOKS TO BE SHORTER SO KEPT POPS            
30-40 IN MUCH OF NW IA. WITH CLOUDS...NRLY FLOW AND PRECIP...EXPECT             
TEMPS TO FALL INTO 20S ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RISE AROUND 5                   
DEGREES ON MONDAY.                                                              
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS SUSPECTED ERYR ETA TOO FAST ON CLRNG OF LO CLDS...IN FSCT RH                 
INITIALIZED VERY POORLY ON 06Z RUN. RUC HAS HAD BETTR HANDL ON FIRST            
FEW HRS BUT KEEPS CLDS IN TOO LONG...APPARENTLY NOT HANDLNG SUBSDNCE            
FACTOR WELL. RESULT ID THAT LO CLDS SHUD BE CLEARING RPDLY FROM THE             
N/NW AS ETA/NAM MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTG...JUST NOT NEARLY AS SOON             
DUE TO POOR HANDLNG OF INITIAL SHLW MOITR FIELD. MVFR CIGS SHUD                 
BREAK MAIONLY FROM THE NW OVER FCST AREA 14Z-18Z AND THEREAFTR NO               
AVIATION PRBLMS EXPCTD THRU 14/12Z.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
SCHUMACHER/WILLIAMS                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
930 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
FCST IN FINE SHAPE THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO               
TEMPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. VIS SAT PIC SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS                   
ADVECTING INTO FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACRS OUR CWA                      
TODAY...BUT QUICK LOOK OUT THE WINDOW STILL WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY                
SUNNY FOR CPV AND POINTS EAST. OTHERWISE...BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS               
FROM BUF/ALB AND LOCAL RUC 40 SOUNDINGS WL INCREASE TEMPS A FEW                 
DEGREES ACRS CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. FEEL BTV WL REACH            
AROUND 55F TODAY BASED ON MIXING FROM 85H AND 925H TEMPS NEAR 10C.              
REST OF FCST IN GREAT SHAPE AND NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                         
WL CONT TO MONITOR 12Z DATA COMING INTO OUR OFFICE FOR THE                      
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FLOOD THREAT CONTS TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR                 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BASED ON INCREASED QPF FROM MODELS AND THE               
SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING. WL RUN SITE SPECIFIC              
MODEL FOR SEVERAL RIVERS WITH 12Z DATA TO SEE TIMING OF RIVER                   
CRESTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.  ALL GAUGES ATTM STILL BELOW ACTION              
LVL.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 300 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
PRIMARY WX HIGHLIGHTS DURING SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF FCST WILL BE                
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL/HYDRO CONCERNS LATE TONIGHT INTO                       
SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP CHANGE TO COLDER TEMPS/SNOWFALL SATURDAY                
EVENING/NIGHT. LATEST SYNOPTIC/SFC MAP INDICATING MAINLY CLR                    
SKIES ACROSS REGION DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS W/PATCHY DENSE FOG IN                 
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS AS MEAN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT SFC/ALOFT                   
PUSHES ACROSS AREA. TEMPS WIDELY VARIED...RANGING IN THE L/M 20S                
IN AREAS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED...TO AROUND 40 IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN             
SOME LIGHT MIXING. EXPECT CLR SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIRST HALF              
OF DAY ALL AREAS...WITH MID/UPPER RH PUSHING INTO NY ZONES BY                   
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE ONLY SHALLOW BNDRY LYR MIXING TO 1-1.5K                
FT...AMPLE SUNSHINE AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW                
TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY...WITH MEAN VALUES RANGING FROM THE                  
U40S TO MID 50S AREA WIDE (SLTLY LOWER NE KINGDOM).                             
TRANSITION TO INCLEMENT CONDS TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPENING               
MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND ASSOC OHIO VLY SFC LOW MOVE SLOWLY EAST                   
TOWARDS REGION. WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED FCSTS IDEA OF INCREASING                
POPS FROM SW TO NE LATE TONIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. BNDRY               
LYR TEMPS PLENTY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AREA WIDE. BY SATURDAY                
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCEMENT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS               
OF FA AS SFC ENERGY BECOMES TRANSFERRED TO NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST.              
DESPITE 00Z ETA IDEA OF CLOSING OFF UPPER ENERGY FAR SOUTH OF                   
REGION...LATEST OP RUNS OF GFS/GEM/EURO MAINTAIN GENERAL                        
CONSISTENCY WITH SFC/UPPER FEATURES AND WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARDS               
THESE SOLNS. IMPRESSIVE SOUTHEASTERLY LL JET OF 50-60KT TO SET UP               
ACROSS AREA DURING DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED                
..WHICH WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT DEEP SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE                
PLUME NE INTO REGION. INDEED...WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 1 INCH                   
RANGE ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE LIFT/DYNAMICS...ARGUMENT FOR HEAVY                  
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN IDEA OF WIND             
BACKING SHARPLY TO NORTHERLY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON NY...AND                  
ACROSS VT EARLY TO MID EVENING AS SHARPLY COLDER AIR RUSHES IN                  
BEHIND SFC FRONT. EXPECT A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO MODERATE/HVY                     
SNOWFALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND BNDRY...AS IMPRESSIVE                           
DEFORMATION/LIFT SET UP ACROSS AREA...ESP EAST. SNOWS TO THEN                   
LIGHTEN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO                    
SUNDAY...ESP NORTHERN AREAS AS DEEP COLUMNAR MOISTURE COMBINED                  
WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD              
ENHANCE LOW TO MID LVL CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME...NOT LOOKING AT               
WIDESPREAD HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS...BUT SEVERAL INCHES CERTAINLY                   
POSSIBLE AFTER ALL SAID AND DONE.                                               
OTHER THAN LINGERING SHSN NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT...SENSIBLE WX                      
ACQUIESCES AS MEAN RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO REGION. WILL                    
HIGHLIGHT COLD TEMPS AND SKIES GENERALLY BECOMING PC ACROSS NRN                 
NY. THEN SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A RETURN TO SUNSHINE BY MONDAY UNDER              
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.                                                           
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. DESPITE THE               
ABRUPT CHANGES TO COLDER CONDS LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MEAN                
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS REMAINS ONE OF ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW...WITH ANY               
ARCTIC AIR REMAINING TRAPPED FAR TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADIAN HIGH              
ARCTIC. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO NEXT SYSTEM                   
TAKING A TRACK WELL NW OF FA...AND MILDER ABV NORMAL TEMPS                      
RETURNING IN EARNEST DURING MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. INHERITED              
FCST OF INCREASING CHCS OF RAIN LATER TUE INTO WED STILL APPEAR                 
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...W/PERHAPS SOME CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT                    
SNOW/SHSN AT TAIL END OF PRECIP WED NT. THEN MAINLY DRY THU/FRIDAY              
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE...AND MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE                   
30S...SOME 10 DEG ABV NORMAL.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN VSBY HAVE BEEN NOTED AT THE TAF SITES EARLY               
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE FG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY                  
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS THE FA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING                    
INCREASES. LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS /NAM            
IN PARTICULAR/ DOES NOT ADEQUATELY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER DURING               
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...LIKELY BECAUSE OF INFLUENCE OF MODEL SNOW            
COVER. WITH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MIXING DEPTH UNDERDONE...HAVE                 
INCREASED WINDS AT THE TAF SITES OVER MOS GUIDANCE. WINDS SHOULD                
GENERALLY BE SLY TO SWLY 10G20KT DURING THE MID-DAY HOURS AS                    
SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY INCR ACROSS THE FA WITH SFC               
LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED              
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW DURING FRI AFTN. RAPID                
DECREASE IN CEILING HEIGHTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SAT WITH ONSET OF -RA            
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREA TERMINALS FROM SW-NE                   
BETWEEN 09-12Z SAT.                                                             
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
OF CONCERN OVER COURSE OF NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR                   
FLOODING ACROSS FA. THOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT                           
EXPECTED...THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND                
EXPECTED RAINFALL OF 0.75 TO 1.75 INCHES WILL ACT TO ENHANCE                    
SNOWMELT RATES ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...MEAN 24 AVG TEMPS                 
FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH 18Z SAT SHOULD RANGE FROM 40-45 DEG                      
..WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT TO WEAKEN EXISTING ICE COVER ON NORTHERN                
TRIBUTARIES. THUS RISES TO BANKFULL OR NEAR FLOOD ARE CERTAINLY                 
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE ABOVE                           
PERIOD...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL THREAT OF BREAKUP ICE JAMS ACROSS                 
NORTHERN WATERWAYS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...FLOOD WATCH FOR VTZ002>012-016>019 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ028>031-034-035 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TABER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
MAIN EARLY CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA AXIS                    
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEGREE OF INTENSITY/LOCATION WITH                 
ANY NEW LEADING EDGE CONVECTION LATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD                 
SUGGEST A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER WRF AND                    
LATEST RUC/NAM WHICH PUTS MAJORITY ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON                
INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE LACKING GIVEN                  
CLOUDS PLUS FOG TO START OUT EAST...AND QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN                
IN 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS WILL NEED DYNAMICS/UPPER DIVERGENCE TO                   
OVERCOME NEGATIVE FEATURES LATER ON. FORECAST NARROW RIBBON OF                  
HIGHER THETA-E WEST/SOUTH WOULD INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF LOW                    
TOPPED CONVECTION WESTERN SLOPES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO NC               
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS BETTER. THEREFORE PLAN TO SLOW                 
DOWN HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE MAJORITY NOT ARRIVING              
UNTIL AFTER 19-21Z FOR NOW. WILL KEEP GOING SPS BUT UPDATE AND                  
TRIM BACK SVR MENTION TO MAINLY THE SE THIRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY               
TRY AND REDEVELOP/JUMP TO BY THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH               
TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SLOW START PER FOG/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SUPPORTED                
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER 12Z THICKNESS VALUES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY BUT                  
LIKELY A BIT AFTER FOG ACROSS THE SE STARTS TO MIX OUT.                         
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AS WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUNS                    
BEFORE UPGRADING CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH OR ADDING ANY WINTRY                   
ADVISORIES FOR LATE TNGT-SAT NGT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LIFR FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS SHALLOW AND EXPECTED TO LIFT                 
INTO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING                     
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES                   
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND TO ROA...LYH AND DAN BEFORE 06Z. ANY HEAVY               
RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES.                                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 502 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE THE                   
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 333 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.               
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGH               
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN                     
MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. A FEW WAA               
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME STRONG                  
STORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR                
PORTIONS OF CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DIGGING THE CLOSED               
LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...WITH THE GFS CLOSING IT OFF               
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY            
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS POSITION. THIS MEANS THE            
BEST JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING              
AREA(CWA) 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE DEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND Q-VECTOR               
FORCING ALSO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THEN THE              
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LOWER IN THE EAST AND GO BACK UP IN THE WEST AS             
THE UPPER LOW CROSSES VIRGINIA.                                                 
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT               
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...IN THE            
+4 TO +7 RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS CROSS SECTIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST            
CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT.               
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH            
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
BEST UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IS FROM 18Z SAT UNTIL              
18Z SUN AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES BY.  COLD AIR COMES IN AFTER                   
06Z...WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED               
FOR WHEN SNOW BEGINS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY             
BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
QPF ON THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ON THE 00Z THAN THE 18Z RUN. IN THE             
WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW RANGE SHOULD BE IN THE .25 TO               
50 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SO             
NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.              
ON SUNDAY 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY DENSE                      
FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST. VISIBILITIES AT KLYH AND KDAN HAVE BEEN               
QUITE VARIABLE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING IN THE WEST UNITED WITH               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMITED FOG. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED VFR/MVFR WITH             
SCT IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST               
WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER                
00Z. A LINE OF IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE END             
OF TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KICK IN FRIDAY NIGHT           
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ001-002-018 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
315 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
...WILL INCLUDE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SAT FOR ALL ZONES...                   
.SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE ~50 NM WIDE ASSOCD WITH               
COLD FRONT MOVING ~30-35 KT THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL GA EXTENDING SW             
TO CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GOMEX. OVERALL LINE APPEARS TO             
BE HOLDING STEADY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE                
BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW PRE-SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND             
CLOUDINESS MOVING EWD WHILE A SMALL DRY DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE               
SQUALL LINE. TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70-75 DUE TO THE CLOUDS                  
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES FROM LAPS INDICATE                 
AROUND 400-600 IN SE GA AND 600-1000 IN NE FL.                                  
.SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW BULK OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING            
NWD NEXT 12 HRS BUT STILL STRONG INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE               
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TOR WATCH #18 IN              
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD IF TRENDS AND               
CONVECTION HOLD UP. THINK FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALMA-LIVE              
OAK LINE BY 22-00Z AND WILL BE EXITING OUR SE ZONES AND MARINE AREA             
BY 06Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LIMITED              
CAPE ALOFT ON MODEL AND UPPER SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR               
LARGE HAIL BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY            
POSSIBLE. MODIFYING 18Z JAX YIELDS CAPE ~900J/KG. SAT...A 990 MB LOW            
WRAPS UP AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA AND SOME PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN            
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LIKELY SUPPORTING AT LEAST LAKE WIND ADVISORY             
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH AND TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE AOB 3 KFT WILL IMPACT MAINLY NRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA SAT             
BEFORE EXITING BY AFTN GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AS PWATS                
DROP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION             
WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE 50S. SAT NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO            
PART ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO THE                
LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S LIKELY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA.             
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT                
WIND SPEEDS AND THE AREA TO PUT UP FREEZE WATCH. WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL PROBABLY REACH CRITERIA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS                
WELL. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO            
PAST VERIFICATION. SUN...WARM UP ENSURES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS                    
MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS             
OVER FL. MON...HIGH PRES MOVES E OF FL WITH S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPING             
AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT                      
APPROACHES THE SE CONUS.                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID-UPPER              
TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO TX TO START OFF EXTENDED FCST. MAIN              
ENERGY LOOKS TO BE N OF THE AREA. SFC FRONT LOOKS SLOWER THAN                   
PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED POPS IN FOR WED NIGHT AS                 
WELL. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY VALUES ON LAST 2 GFS RUNS LOOK TOO             
WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.               
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN THU AND FRI. BY LATE WEEK...HIGH              
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA PER LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE WITH AN E TO SE            
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM                
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...12Z MODELS BRING WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE                 
OFFSHORE ZONES SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING             
OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE AND EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL RH'S SAT AFTERNOON OVER NE            
FL. WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION WILL NEED ONLY ONE HOUR OF            
<35 PERCENT RH SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH.  ON SUNDAY RH'S WILL              
DROP BELOW 35 OVER NE FL FOR 4-5 HOURS SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR                
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  42  50  31  60 /  60   5   0   0                                           
SSI  44  54  34  58 /  70   5   0   0                                           
JAX  44  55  30  58 /  60   5   0   0                                           
SGJ  44  53  35  55 /  60   0   0   0                                           
GNV  47  54  31  60 /  60   0   0   0                                           
OCF  48  56  31  61 /  60   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SATURDAY.                                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SUNDAY.                                     
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY.                             
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY.                             
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE         
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE                 
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER                   
     BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                          
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60                
     NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO                 
     60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM                
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL                  
     OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM...               
     AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ZIBURA                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
244 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SQUALL LINE ~50 NM WIDE ASSOCD WITH               
COLD FRONT MOVING ~30-35 KT THROUGH NRN AND CENTRAL GA EXTENDING SW             
TO CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GOMEX. OVERALL LINE APPEARS TO             
BE HOLDING STEADY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING A BIT MORE                
BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW PRE-SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND             
CLOUDINESS MOVING EWD WHILE A SMALL DRY DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE               
SQUALL LINE. TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 70-75 DUE TO THE CLOUDS                  
AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SB CAPES FROM LAPS INDICATE                 
AROUND 400-600 IN SE GA AND 600-1000 IN NE FL.                                  
.SHORT TERM...MODELS SHOW BULK OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING            
NWD NEXT 12 HRS BUT STILL STRONG INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE               
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. TOR WATCH #18 IN              
EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EWD IF TRENDS AND               
CONVECTION HOLD UP. THINK FRONT WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AN ALMA-LIVE              
OAK LINE BY 22-00Z AND WILL BE EXITING OUR SE ZONES AND MARINE AREA             
BY 06Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LIMITED              
CAPE ALOFT ON MODEL AND UPPER SOUNDINGS WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR               
LARGE HAIL BUT WITH THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SOME HAIL IS CERTAINLY            
POSSIBLE. MODIFYING 18Z JAX YIELDS CAPE ~900J/KG. SAT...A 990 MB LOW            
WRAPS UP AROUND THE DELMARVA AREA AND SOME PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN            
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LIKELY SUPPORTING AT LEAST LAKE WIND ADVISORY             
CRITERIA WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH AND TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE AOB 3 KFT WILL IMPACT MAINLY NRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA SAT             
BEFORE EXITING BY AFTN GIVING WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AS PWATS                
DROP TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION             
WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE 50S. SAT NIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH GIVING WAY TO            
PART ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AS LOWS DROP TO THE                
LOWER 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S LIKELY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA.             
WILL HOLD OFF ON A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT                
WIND SPEEDS AND THE AREA TO PUT UP FREEZE WATCH. WIND CHILL VALUES              
WILL PROBABLY REACH CRITERIA FOR LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN AS                
WELL. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS DUE TO            
PAST VERIFICATION. SUN...WARM UP ENSURES WITH LIGHT WINDS AS                    
MID-UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS             
OVER FL. MON...HIGH PRES MOVES E OF FL WITH S TO SE FLOW DEVELOPING             
AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN AS THE NEXT FRONT                      
APPROACHES THE SE CONUS.                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID-UPPER              
TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT LAKES TO TX TO START OFF EXTENDED FCST. MAIN              
ENERGY LOOKS TO BE N OF THE AREA. SFC FRONT LOOKS SLOWER THAN                   
PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE THEREFORE ADDED POPS IN FOR WED NIGHT AS                 
WELL. AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY VALUES ON LAST 2 GFS RUNS LOOK TOO             
WEAK TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.               
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN THU AND FRI. BY LATE WEEK...HIGH              
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA PER LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE WITH AN E TO SE            
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM                
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...12Z MODELS BRING WINDS UP TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OVER THE                 
OFFSHORE ZONES SAT AND SAT NIGHT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GALE WARNING             
OFFSHORE AND SCA NEAR SHORE AND EXTEND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...STILL LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL RH'S SAT AFTERNOON OVER NE            
FL. WITH STRONG WINDS AND HIGH DISPERSION WILL NEED ONLY ONE HOUR OF            
<35 PERCENT RH SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH.  ON SUNDAY RH'S WILL              
DROP BELOW 35 OVER NE FL FOR 4-5 HOURS SO WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR                
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  42  50  31  60 /  60   5   0   0                                           
SSI  44  54  34  58 /  70   5   0   0                                           
JAX  44  55  30  58 /  60   5   0   0                                           
SGJ  44  53  35  55 /  60   0   0   0                                           
GNV  47  54  31  60 /  60   0   0   0                                           
OCF  48  56  31  61 /  60   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SATURDAY.                                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1-5 PM SUNDAY.                                     
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM SATURDAY FOR THE         
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE                 
     FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER                   
     BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                          
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING           
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60                
     NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO                 
     60 NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM                
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY FOR THE             
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL                  
     OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM...               
     AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ZIBURA                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
243 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
...COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...                            
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT                 
WAVE MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE               
TRAILING COLD FRONT POISED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE                 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.                                                              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ARE                 
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH MOISTURE                
VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE. AS EVIDENCE...DEW POINTS ARE IN THE                  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH GPSMET PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE POOLING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG                 
WITH INCREASED H7-H5 OMEGA VALUES. RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...MAINLY OVER INLAND                 
SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WHERE SOUTH TO                      
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL COVERGENCE IS FAVORED. EXPECT INCREASED                     
COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND              
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODESTLY UNSTABLE              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. FOR THE                         
EVENING...THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE...DEEP LAYER                       
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONTINUED                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS EVEN GREATER                 
COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST ...TO INCLUDE ISOLATED                            
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PENINSULA              
BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING AFTER                       
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
FOR SATURDAY...A DISTINCTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW                
TOMORROW...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BREEZY TO                
WINDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS DRY ADIABATIC                  
LAPSE RATES WITH AROUND 30 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW THROUGH 850 MB.                   
EXPECT STRONG GUSTS ACCORDINGLY. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE                
15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY               
LEVELS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR COASTAL SITES. BELOW NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN                
THE 60S.                                                                        
SATURDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST                 
OVER THE GULF ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTH WEST FLOW OVER THE AREA AS               
WELL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION. WHILE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY THEN...GRADIENT 
FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD RADIATIONAL COOLING.                
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO EXPECT COLD WIND CHILLS INTO                 
THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER MAINLY INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY               
MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.                         
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE            
BUILDS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY                           
HOWEVER. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AND ALLOW TEMPS TO               
DROP AGAIN INTO THE 30S. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING IN          
PROTECTED AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IF MAV GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...HOWEVER              
MET MOS IS COMING A FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THEN...INDICATING SOME                
AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL BE AT WORK. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING               
FROST FOR NOW.                                                                  
FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...RIDGE BUILDS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW               
COMMENCING BY MONDAY. TEMPS RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL                    
VALUES THROUGH MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL REBOUND BUT RAIN CHANCES                 
WILL BE VERY LIMITED UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STRONG WINDS TO START TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT                       
REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN ALL WATERS. WILL SEE                        
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO MINIMIAL GALE FORCE AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS                 
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINSH THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...DEW POINTS WILL DROP RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO DIP                      
RELATIVE HUMIDITIE JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TOMORROW                      
AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR 15 MPH WINDS...NOT TO                   
MENTION STRONG GUSTS...THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE A FIRE                  
WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. RH'S                
WILL BE FAIRLY LOW ON SUNDAY AS WELL AND A WATCH/WARNING MAY BE                 
NECESSARY THEN AS WELL. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE COOL                 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  58  66  43  65 /  60   0   0   0                               
FORT LAUDERDALE  61  71  42  69 /  60   0   0   0                               
MIAMI            61  69  45  70 /  50  10   0   0                               
NAPLES           59  64  45  66 /  50   0   0   5                               
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON SATURDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHRISTENSEN                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1150 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...CAA CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS                  
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK TROUGH HEADING SOUTH TOWARD STATE YET            
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LVL ST HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE WEST...WITH SOME               
EROSION ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...BUT GENERALLY HOLDING                 
INTACT AS IT ADVECTS SE WITH THE FLOW.  THUS...SKIES WILL BE BKN-OVC            
EVENTUALLY AS CLOUD FIELD HEADS SE. EXPECT OCCASIONAL BREAKS WITH               
FINAL DISSIPATION AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST OF AREA. HIGHS TRIMMED BACK             
ABOUT 5 DEGREES IN A MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.            
WINDS REMAINING STIFF THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVERALL JUST BELOW ADV              
LEVELS./REV                                                                     
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT WIND GUSTS TO JUST              
BELOW WIND ADV CRITERIA TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS.  WINDS FAIRLY                     
CONSISTENT WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO AOA 43 MPH AT THE MOMENT AND FOR MUCH            
OF THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER             
THIS AFTERNOON./REV                                                             
BARELY ANY PCPN WITH THIS SYS AS PASSES OVRHD ERLY THIS MRNG. WNDS              
ARE COMING UP HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL CAA TDA. THE BIG QUESTION IS              
WHETHER THE CLDS WL CLR AS ADVERTISED. BOTH THE GFS/ETA BLOW THE LVL            
RH OUT BY MIDDAY OVR THE WRN HALF AT LEAST. THE RUC IS A BIT MORE               
CONSERVATIVE WITH A LRG N/S DRY SLOT THRU CNTRL IA AT 18Z. RDGG BLDS            
AGRESSIVELY FOR THE WKEND WITH H8 TMPS ABV 10DEG SWRN IA SAT. PUSHED            
TMPS UPWRD A BIT MORE IN OVR THE SWRN PTN OF THE FA...AND THAT MAY              
NOT BE ENOUGH STILL WITH A GOOD SW WND TO MIX. A MIXDOWN TMP IS THE             
LOWER 60S! PRETTY MUCH THE SAME STORY FOR SUNDAY. BY MON THE NXT                
TROF IS APRCHG WITH THE ECMWF SHOVING MORE ENERGY TO THE S. HENCE               
THE GFS LOOKS TOO WOUND UP. STILL CAN NOT IGNORE THE CHCS FOR SNOW              
WITH THE THIS SYS WHATEVER THE SFC PTRN MAY LOOK LIKE. THIS SYS                 
EXITS ERLY TUE WITH WRMG RETURNING ON WED...PUSHING TMPS BACK ABV               
NORMAL. ANOTHER SYS MAY BE IN THE MAKING NXT FRI AS FLOW REMAINS                
SORTA ZONAL AND SOMEWHAT SPLIT TOO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MYERS/REV                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
255 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE NEAR TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS THE AREA OF SNOW WRAPPING                    
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY.                
RELIED PRIMARILY ON RUC MODEL QPF AND MEAN RH FOR THE LOCATION AND              
TIMING OF THIS PRECIP. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE VICINITY OF              
EVV/HOP LINE AT 06Z. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF                 
FAIRLY STEADY SNOW...STILL THINK HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BELOW            
ADVISORY CRITERIA /2 INCHES/. INITIALLY WARM GROUND AND ABOVE                   
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS WILL RESULT IN A 10 TO 1 RATIO AT BEST.                  
GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL SHOW UP TO 1.5 INCH SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE                
WHITE RIVER OF SW INDIANA. OVER SE MISSOURI...NOTHING MORE THAN                 
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES THIS EVENING AS THE PRECIP IS ALREADY MAINLY             
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COLDEST IN THE            
FAR WEST /POPLAR BLUFF AREA/...WHERE CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY              
AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                                
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEST TO              
EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE                
LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDINESS SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.               
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH                   
SEASONAL NORMS WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. FOR LOWS SATURDAY                     
NIGHT...STAYED VERY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL             
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS /IN THE 50S/ AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                    
DEVELOPS.                                                                       
ANOTHER VERY ENERGETIC SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA EARLY               
NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE COMPLEX THAN THE PAST FEW...AND MODEL            
GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT. IT APPEARS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH            
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE               
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS                 
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER                  
MONDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE 12Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT IT.                  
A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS LOW            
PRESSURE DEVELOPS VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS NORTHEAST               
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. AGAIN...THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF GUIDANCE.             
12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE               
THE 00Z ECMWF IS MUCH FURTHER WEST. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL THAT                 
VERIFIES...SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD RANGE FROM SNOW TO THUNDERSTORMS.             
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WITH                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.                                                         
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR                
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
441 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SFC LO CENTERED OVER NRN INDIANA ATTM WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING               
SOUTH FROM NEAR KIND INTO CNTRL KY AND TN. INITIAL BAND OF -SHRA                
HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN FCST AREA ASSOCD WITH NOSE OF 50KT 850 LLJ               
AND CONSEQUENT LO LVL CONV AXIS. SCT -SHRA NOW REDVLPG AND MOVING               
INTO FCST AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF APPCHG COLD FRONT. TEMPS                  
REMAINED MILD THIS AFTN...GENERALLY IN THE 50S. WHERE THE SUN HAD               
GOTTEN OUT EARLIER TODAY ACRS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FCST                      
AREA...TEMPS WERE AROUND 60.                                                    
INTENSIFYING SFC LO WILL TRACK N/E...MOVING INTO CNTRL NY BY SAT                
MRNG. COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACRS FCST AREA DURING EVNG HOURS WITH               
-SHRA CONTINUING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM THIS EVNG AHEAD OF              
COLD FRONT...BUT MUCH OF TSTM ACTIVITY FOR LAST SVRL HOURS HAS                  
BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF REGION. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL                
SPILL INTO REGION BEHIND FROPA LATE THIS EVNG...WITH PCPN CHANGING              
TO SNOW AFT MIDNIGHT. 1300M 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUE APPEARS TO BE              
DIVIDING LINE FROM RAIN TO SNOW THIS AFTN ACRS ILLINOIS. 12Z                    
GFS/18Z RUC BOTH INDCG 1300M LINE WILL SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA                
BTWN 06Z-11Z. INFLUENCE OF MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS CURRENTLY                   
LOCATED ACRS CNTRL/EASTERN ILLINOIS ATTM MAY ENHANCE CHANGE OVER                
TO SNOW A LITTLE FASTER THAN THICKNESS ALONE...AND HAVE INDICATED               
A CHANGE IN WESTERN FCST AREA BEGINNING AROUND 05Z. PCPN OVER                   
ENTIRE FCST AREA SHOULD BE SNOW BY 09-10Z. EXPECTING 1-2 INCHES IN              
MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO ERLY SAT...AS MID LVL                      
DEFOMRATION AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACRS FCST AREA. CONSIDERED ISSUING A               
SNOW ADV FOR LATE TONIGHT AS 2 INCHES TRIGGERS AN ADV.                          
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE DIMINISHED DUE TO RECENT WARM            
WEATHER WHICH HAS KEPT SOIL TEMPS UP AS OF LATE IN U30S/L40S. EXPECT            
TO SEE COATING ON GRASSY SURFACES WITH A SLUSHY MIX ON ROADS. WITH              
THAT IN MIND...WILL NOT ISSUE A SNOW ADV ATTM.                                  
AS 850 LOW LIFTS EAST OF REGION AFT MIDNIGHT...STRONG NRLY 50KT                 
LLJ WILL MOVE INTO FCST AREA...WITH 40KT WINDS ONLY ABOUT A 1000FT              
OFF THE GROUND. OBS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VLY ASSOCD WITH THIS LLJ               
INDCG SUSTAINED GENERALLY IN 20-30MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND                   
40MPH OVER LAST SVRL HOURS. EXPECTING WINDS SIMILAR TO THESE                    
VALUES DVLPG OVER FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT. ALSO CONTEMPLATED A WIND              
ADV AS THESE VALUES WOULD PUT US CLOSE TO ADV CRIT...BUT HAVE LEFT              
OUT OF FCST FOR TIME BEING. HAVE INSTEAD ISSUED AN SPS TO MENTION               
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THIS AND                       
POTENTIAL SNOW CLOSELY THIS EVNG...AS EVOLVING CONDITIONS MAY                   
WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO ADV FOR SNOW OR WIND.                                     
WINDS AND SCT -SHSN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING               
THE MRNG HOURS...WITH ENTIRE FCST AREA DRY BY ERLY AFTN. MUCH OF                
FCST AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY ALL DAY SAT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
INDCG DRIER AIR WORKING INTO BNDRY LYR BY LATE AFTN MAY ALLOW SC                
DECK TO BREAK UP ACRS NRN KY AND INTO TRI STATE AREA. SKIES WILL                
CLEAR ELSEWHERE DURING EVNG HOURS AS SFC HI RIDGE BUILDS INTO                   
REGION. CLOUDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN DAY SUN AND                  
INTO SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF APPCHG WARM FRONT. 12Z GFS IN PARTICULAR                
TRYING TO SPIT OUT -SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT TOWARDS DAWN MON...BUT                
FEEL DRY E/SE DOWNSLOPE FLO COMBINED WITH DEWPTS IN L20S WILL KEEP              
PCPN OUT OF FCST AREA UNTIL DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MON.                              
TEMPS...SHOULD SEE A QUICK 10 DEG DROP TONIGHT WITH FROPA...THEN                
TEMPS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARDS L/M30S BY ERLY MRNG. TRENDED                     
TOWARDS FWC GUID TONIGHT AS MAV LOOKED A LITTLE COOL. TOOK SPLIT                
OF COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET SAT...THEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO MAV                 
GUID FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM. WITH 850 CAA AND ABUNDANCE OF                 
CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF DAY SAT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW                 
DEG DIURNAL SPREAD BTWN TONIGHT AND SAT AFTN. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO              
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORM LVLS BY SUNDAY.                                       
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
MODELERS ARE SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARDS THE 0Z GFS FOR THIS                     
FORECAST PERIOD BUT BLEND THIS WITH THE OTHER MODELS FOR THE                    
LATTER PART OF THE EXTENDED. AM NOT SEEING TREMENDOUS DIFFERENCES               
ATTM WHERE A BLEND IS THAT MUCH OF A STRETCH FROM ANY OF THE MODEL              
SOLUTIONS.                                                                      
NOTICE A 4 DAY RECURRING PATTERN WITH A L/W TROF LOCATED IN THE                 
MIDWEST THIS MORNING...AGAIN ON TUES MORNING...AND AGAIN SAT                    
MORNING. SFC LOWS ARE CO-LOCATED WITH THESE L/W TROFS...ALTHOUGH                
PLACEMENT IS DIFFERING SLIGHTLY. BELIEVE THAT PRECIP AHEAD OF THESE             
SFC LOWS WILL HOLD OFF A BIT AND NOT OVERSPREAD TOO MUCH IN THE WARM            
SECTORS. LOOKING AT DIFFERENCES BTWN GFS AND ETA FOR 12Z                        
MON....PREFER THE DRIER ETA UNTIL FORCING GETS CLOSER.                          
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE STARTING WED NIGHT. BELIEVE THAT THERE'S             
MORE ROOM FOR ERROR AS THE 0Z THU MODELS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA            
WITH THE SFC LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST. THIS BLENDS THE 0Z GFS AND               
CURRENT ECMWF FINE...BUT THE OTHER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES               
ALL HAVE A LOW OVER THE OHVLY AND THE H5 L/W TROF STILL W OF FCST               
AREA. WILL NOT STRAY FROM HPC GUIDANCE STARTING THURS.                          
TUE PM HAS SOME DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH A GOOD COLD PUSH AND                   
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SN ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE INCLUDED                
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 100 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                           
SW SFC WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER 20 KTS...AND IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS                 
AT KILN NEAR NOSE OF LLJ IN ADVANCE OF A SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT.                
SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH 23Z WITH MVFR CIGS              
AND VISIBLITIES. LOOKING AT GUIDANCE AND PCPN TYPE METHODS...THE                
RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW 05Z TO 09Z NORTHWEST TO                                 
SOUTHEAST...CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN FLURRIES 07Z TO 12Z.              
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR/OVER 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.                
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1202 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...THINKING AHEAD FOR FIRE WEATHER PLANNING...WE HAVE GONE               
AHEAD WITH A NOON ISSUANCE OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR BOTH                     
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANTICIPATING THAT SOME AGENCIES MAY NEED                  
TIME TO PREPARE BEFORE THE WEEKEND.                                             
HUMIDITY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA               
SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH                     
PRESSURES LOWERING RAPIDLY...MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL TO MIX                
40 MPH GUSTS TO THE SURFACE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS LIKELY                      
EXCEEDING 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...THEN...COULD BE THE                 
NEXT DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AS ALL PARAMETERS                
MAY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006)                        
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS                          
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE A              
FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE NAM/ETA INITIALIZED BEST ON              
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS...AND SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH                
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH                
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN DIRECTION. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE                
MIDDLE 20S OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA. RUC/GFS BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS IN              
THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTER NORTH TEXAS. THIS                
LOOKS REASONABLE JUDGING BY POTENTIAL FOR DRY MIXING ON THE                     
AMARILLO 12Z SOUNDING AND LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINT OBS IN THE                
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN                 
THOSE AREAS. FIRE SPREAD INDICES COME VERY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME                 
CATEGORY...BUT MAINLY WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TODAY AS VERY HIGH...EXPECTING                            
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  27  64  40 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         58  28  65  39 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  29  68  43 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           55  24  66  37 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     53  26  63  40 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         57  31  66  43 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING              
     FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-               
     OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-                   
     OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-                   
     OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-                   
     OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-                   
     OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.                   
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY                
     EVENING FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-                     
     OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-                   
     OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038.                                               
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING              
     FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.               
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY                
     EVENING FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ087-TXZ088.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS                         
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MADE A              
FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THE NAM/ETA INITIALIZED BEST ON              
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEEDS...AND SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 MPH                
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH                
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN DIRECTION. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE                
MIDDLE 20S OVER MOST OF OKLAHOMA. RUC/GFS BRING LOWER DEWPOINTS IN              
THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTER NORTH TEXAS. THIS                
LOOKS REASONABLE JUDGING BY POTENTIAL FOR DRY MIXING ON THE                     
AMARILLO 12Z SOUNDING AND LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINT OBS IN THE                
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MEAN HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT IN                 
THOSE AREAS. FIRE SPREAD INDICES COME VERY CLOSE TO THE EXTREME                 
CATEGORY...BUT MAINLY WILL STAY IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TODAY AS VERY HIGH...EXPECTING                            
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THE NEXT TWO DAYS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  55  27  64  40 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         58  28  65  39 /   0   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  29  68  43 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           55  24  66  37 /   0   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     53  26  63  40 /   0   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         57  31  66  43 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1241 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT LYH AND WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 19Z               
TO SEE MIX OUT TO VFR CONDITIONS IF NOT LONGER. OTHERWISE EXPECT                
VFR/OCNL MVFR TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY GIVING WAY                
TO LOWERING CEILINGS AND VSBYS AS AXIS OF SHRA/TSRA SWEEPS NE                   
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF                  
VFR/IFR BETWEEN 22Z AND MIDNIGHT BEFORE FRONT SLIDES THRU. WILL                 
LIKELY SEE A BRIEF DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE                   
PRECIP WITH UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SWING SE BY MORNING. THINK THE                  
MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN/SNOW WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE BLF/LWB                    
REGION SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ELSW DRY SAT WITH SLOW IMPROVING                   
CEILINGS TO LOW END VFR BY MIDDAY. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE              
DAY WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1010 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
MAIN EARLY CONCERNS WITH TIMING OF PREFRONTAL SHRA/TSRA AXIS                    
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND DEGREE OF INTENSITY/LOCATION WITH                 
ANY NEW LEADING EDGE CONVECTION LATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD                 
SUGGEST A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL AS SEEN VIA THE EARLIER WRF AND                    
LATEST RUC/NAM WHICH PUTS MAJORITY ACROSS THE CWA LATE AFTERNOON                
INTO THIS EVENING. SINCE INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE LACKING GIVEN                  
CLOUDS PLUS FOG TO START OUT EAST...AND QUITE DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN                
IN 12Z RAOBS...APPEARS WILL NEED DYNAMICS/UPPER DIVERGENCE TO                   
OVERCOME NEGATIVE FEATURES LATER ON. FORECAST NARROW RIBBON OF                  
HIGHER THETA-E WEST/SOUTH WOULD INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF LOW                    
TOPPED CONVECTION WESTERN SLOPES MID/LATE AFTERNOON...AND INTO NC               
WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEARS BETTER. THEREFORE PLAN TO SLOW                 
DOWN HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE MAJORITY NOT ARRIVING              
UNTIL AFTER 19-21Z FOR NOW. WILL KEEP GOING SPS BUT UPDATE AND                  
TRIM BACK SVR MENTION TO MAINLY THE SE THIRD WHERE CONVECTION MAY               
TRY AND REDEVELOP/JUMP TO BY THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH               
TEMPS A BIT GIVEN SLOW START PER FOG/DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SUPPORTED                
BY SLIGHTLY LOWER 12Z THICKNESS VALUES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY BUT                  
LIKELY A BIT AFTER FOG ACROSS THE SE STARTS TO MIX OUT.                         
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AS WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUNS                    
BEFORE UPGRADING CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH OR ADDING ANY WINTRY                   
ADVISORIES FOR LATE TNGT-SAT NGT.                                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 649 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LIFR FOG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS SHALLOW AND EXPECTED TO LIFT                 
INTO MVFR CEILINGS BY 16Z. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL BRING                     
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES                   
AROUND 00Z TONIGHT AND TO ROA...LYH AND DAN BEFORE 06Z. ANY HEAVY               
RAIN WITH THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND                    
VISIBILITIES.                                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 502 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
HAVE EXPANDED THE AREA FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO INCLUDE THE                   
MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AREA AND THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT              
THIS TIME.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 333 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH EAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.               
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGH               
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A                  
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REACH THE WESTERN                     
MOUNTAINS AROUND 00Z AND MOVE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY. A FEW WAA               
SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT...THEN EXPECT SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT SOME STRONG                  
STORMS. SPC HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR                
PORTIONS OF CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DIGGING THE CLOSED               
LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS...WITH THE GFS CLOSING IT OFF               
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY            
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IS TO GO WITH GFS POSITION. THIS MEANS THE            
BEST JET DYNAMICS AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE OVER THE COUNTY WARNING              
AREA(CWA) 00-06Z TONIGHT. THE DEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND Q-VECTOR               
FORCING ALSO PASS THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. THEN THE              
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LOWER IN THE EAST AND GO BACK UP IN THE WEST AS             
THE UPPER LOW CROSSES VIRGINIA.                                                 
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING 50-70 KNOT 850 MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT               
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND GOOD SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...IN THE            
+4 TO +7 RANGE...SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS CROSS SECTIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST            
CWA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KNOTS ALONG THE RIDGES SATURDAY NIGHT.               
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WINDS WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE SOUTH            
INTO NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
BEST UPSLOPE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES IS FROM 18Z SAT UNTIL              
18Z SUN AFTER THE UPPER LOW GOES BY.  COLD AIR COMES IN AFTER                   
06Z...WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED               
FOR WHEN SNOW BEGINS IN THE GRIDDED DATABASE. STAYED AT OR SLIGHTLY             
BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.                  
QPF ON THE GFS IS A LITTLE LESS ON THE 00Z THAN THE 18Z RUN. IN THE             
WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE UPPER LOW RANGE SHOULD BE IN THE .25 TO               
50 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. SO             
NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO SNOW AMOUNTS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.              
ON SUNDAY 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER WINDS SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS RESULTING LOCALLY DENSE                      
FOG...MAINLY IN THE EAST. VISIBILITIES AT KLYH AND KDAN HAVE BEEN               
QUITE VARIABLE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MIXING IN THE WEST UNITED WITH               
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMITED FOG. THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED VFR/MVFR WITH             
SCT IFR/LIFR IN CONVECTION. A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST               
WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER                
00Z. A LINE OF IFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE END             
OF TAF PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KICK IN FRIDAY NIGHT           
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR VAZ007-009>017 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ001-002-018 FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va