AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
415 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOOKING A THE BIG PICTURE...SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE TAKING                 
PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE GENERAL PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH              
HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST.  THIS CHANGE CAN BE SEEN IN A MORE ACTIVE              
AND STRONGER EASTERLIES FLOW.  THE STRONG RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE              
MIDWEST EXTENDING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST HAS NOW BECOME MORE ZONAL.             
HOWEVER...THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC REMAINS COMPLEX.                 
ON THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE...WILL MIX THE USE OF                         
MODEL DATA FOR GENERAL GUIDANCE PATTERN AND USE THE SATELLITE LOOPS             
TO PICK OUT THE FINE DETAILS FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS.  FOR NORTHERN               
CA...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES.  THE FIRST              
ONE DROPPED DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WAS NOT PICKED UP              
BY THE MODELS TOO WELL ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS CURRENTLY IS LOCATED              
OVER KSCK AND APPEARS TO BE SHEARING APART.  BUT LOOKING CLOSELY AT             
THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME WEAK ENERGY THAT             
IS DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE THIS WEAKENING WAVE.  THIS MAY BE                
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN SAC/NORTHERN SAN            
JOAQUIN VALLEY AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE            
LATEST RUC MODEL MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS THE BEST.  WILL LEAN                
TOWARDS THE RUC MODEL AND FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE FOR TODAY.  THE                
SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE                   
UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE IT WILL ENTER CA.  THIS PATH WILL MAKES A BIG              
DIFFERENCE AS TO HOW MUCH COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE.  THE PATH WILL               
DETERMINE HOW SUPPORTIVE THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE FOR AN ONSHORE                
FLOW AND HOW MUCH MARINE AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO ADVECT INLAND.                
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LOWER THE TEMPERATURES A            
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY.                                                          
OTHERWISE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST MODELS ON DROPPING A            
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY MORNING.  THE                 
BRUNT OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP OUR NORTHEAST CORNER             
ON SATURDAY.  SINCE THIS APPEARS MORE AND MORE TO BE A SLIDER TYPE              
SYSTEM...WILL HANG ON TO A DRY FORECAST AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOPED            
OVER THE NEXT DAY.  A SECOND WAVE WILL FOLLOW FROM THE NORTH.  THIS             
WAVE IS MORE TO THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO  DIG INTO THE EASTERN               
PACIFIC.  MODELS AGREE ON CLOSING BY SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN              
PACIFIC.  THEN MODELS DIVERGE WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THIS CLOSED              
LOW.  BASE ON HISTORY...WILL LEAN ON THE LEAST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION             
FOR NOW.  THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN PRESSURE RISES OVER NORTHERN CA.                
IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A COOLING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN A             
SLOW WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK AND KEEPING THE WEATHER FOR THE                
FORECAST PERIOD.  LAM                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPR TROF OVR NORCAL WITH W FLOW ALF. PVLT MVFR AND LCL IFR CONDS ALG            
CST THRU PD. STRATUS EXTDS LAN ABT 40NM  TIL 19Z AND AGN BY 04Z.                
CIGS BKN-OVC010 LCL 3SM BR BLO OVC010 TOPS 020. VFR CONDS ELSW. PCH             
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1015 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DESPITE THE SLIGHT RIDGING THAT WE HAVE OVER US FROM 850 ALL THE WAY            
UP TO 500...THERE IS MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE                
AREA AT LOWER LEVELS. IN ADDITION...250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE JUST TO OUR WEST...WEAK THOUGH IT IS. THUS...            
WILL LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE                 
EXTREME NORTHWEST JUST IN CASE SOME OF THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN              
TENNESSEE HAPPENS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA BEFORE                 
COMPLETELY BREAKING APART WHEN IT REACHES THE RIDGE.                            
TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE FOR NOW...CURRENT TRENDS ARE RUNNING IN LINE             
WITH HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...SO NO NEED TO UPDATE THOSE AT               
THIS TIME. LOOKING AT SKY GRIDS VERSUS CURRENT SKY COVER...I DID                
NEED TO LOWER THE SKY GRIDS TO MATCH REALITY...AND BASED ON RUC                 
FORECASTS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS I ALSO LOWERED SKY            
COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WEAKENS. A             
BETTER DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS MOVES TO N GA EARLY FRIDAY THEN TO                 
CENTRAL GA BY DAYS END FRIDAY. THIS DUE TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT               
AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH. COLD FRONT OVER OH TO MID MS VALLEYS WILL BE             
SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD MOVE INTO N GA FRIDAY EVENING AND APPROACH               
CENTRAL GA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO             
N GA FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ARE RATHER                
WEAK BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO INCLUDE LOWER END POPS. WARM                        
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TODAY AND FRIDAY.                                       
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.               
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND                 
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT INCREASES              
THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GA REMAINS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY. OPHELIA MOVING            
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE               
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY                
WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 5THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED                    
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST GA AS MOISTURE AND              
INSTABILITY INCREASES THERE. WIND SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST 5 TO 10KT             
TODAY. VISIBILITY 3 TO 5SM IN FOG AND HAZE THIS MORNING WITH SOME               
LOCAL SPOTS NEAR 1SM...IMPROVING BY 15Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1125 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH 12Z MODELS CONTINUING             
TO POORLY HANDLE A CLASSIC DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE             
MIDWEST THIS MORNING.                                                           
GFS APPEARS ABOUT 5 HOURS TOO SLOW WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER            
LEVEL LOW... AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES SUCH AS THE DRY SLOT.              
ETA SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING ERRORS... BUT ALSO IS TOO WEAK WITH THE             
SYSTEM... DOESN'T ACTUALLY DEVELOP THE DRY SLOT UNTIL 12Z FRI.                  
FOR SHORTER TERM CONCERNS... THE RUC AND NCEP 22KM WRF... AND GOOD              
OLD FASHIONED OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.            
FIRST CHALLENGE IS AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION... MAINLY HOW FAR            
NORTH THE PRECIP IS ABLE TO PENETRATE.  43 F DEWPOINT AT PIA ASOS               
APPEARED TO STAND OUT AS QUESTIONABLE... BUT IT HAS SINCE BEEN                  
CONFIRMED BY TWO SLING PSYCHROMETERS.  TEMP IS ALSO ABOUT 4 DEGREES             
HIGHER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS... MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH LOCAL            
TOPOGRAPHY OR VEGETATION.  EITHER WAY... UP IN THE NORTHERN PART OF             
THE CWA WE'RE BASICALLY LOOKING AT A BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN COOLER...              
DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH WITH STRONG HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NE TO               
E.  AT THE SAME TIME... THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI HAS                 
ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE                
SOUTHERN HALF OF ILLINOIS.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME OVERRUNNING               
MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE ENTIRE CWA.                                         
THE RESULTANT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BEST DEFINED SOUTH OF I-72...              
HOWEVER... VIRGA IS PRESENT ACROSS EVEN THE NORTHWEST CWA... AND IS             
SLOWLY MOISTENING UP THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  SPRINKLES             
HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE PEORIA AREA... WITH               
LIGHT RAIN OBSERVED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SOUTH OF THE QUAD               
CITIES.                                                                         
COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE DRY SLOT... VISIBLE CLEARLY ON WATER                
VAPOR IMAGERY... AS WELL AS REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS... SURGING                   
ENE'WARD.  AS THE STORM IS STILL IN ITS DEVELOPING STAGES... THE DRY            
SLOT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO DO MUCH TO ERODE CLOUD COVER OVER                     
MISSOURI... SO WHILE PRECIP MAY SHUT OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF               
THE CWA (SPI-IJX AREA) LATER THIS AFTERNOON... SKIES SHOULD REMAIN              
OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY... AFFECTING MAX TEMPERATURES.                      
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION              
SETS UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.  LATEST TRENDS SEEM              
TO FAVOR SETTING IT UP FROM ABOUT AN OTTAWA (IL)-KIRKSVILLE (MO)                
LINE... WHICH MAY KEEP PRECIP GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE                
NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA.                                                       
PRECIP AMOUNTS HOWEVER... ARE HARDLY IMPRESSIVE ANYWHERE EXCEPT FOR             
SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE SOUTHEAST.  WE ARE PRETTY MUCH LOOKING AT LESS             
THAN 0.10 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-70 THOUGH THE               
AFTERNOON.  SO THIS WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN RESULTANT POPS AS AREAL            
COVERAGE OF APPRECIABLE RAINS WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.                           
AS MENTIONED BEFORE... CLOUD COVER REMAINS EVEN IN THE DRY SLOT                 
AREA... AND THIS IS CLEARLY HAVING AN AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ACROSS             
THE CWA.  MAVMOS APPEARS TO BE CLOSER TO BEING "ON TRACK" WITH                  
CURRENT TEMPS... METMOS IS WAY TOO HIGH.  WILL UPDATE MAX TEMPS TO              
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                                         
ZFP UPDATE IS ON THE WAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE                      
DEVELOPING WAVE...AND EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP WILL SPREAD                  
ACROSS THE KILX CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                          
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1020MB HIGH CENTERED OVER                            
WISCONSIN...WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                 
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE              
LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS ON THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS             
WEST TEXAS.  ALOFT...VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS                  
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY IS POPS.  MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS SITUATION             
POORLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...FLIP-FLOPPING WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS                
FROM RUN TO RUN.  00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...BUT              
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER 12 HOURS.  NAM IS SLOWER AND DEEPER            
WITH THE TEXAS WAVE...AND KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN                 
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                    
MEANWHILE...GFS IS FASTER AND SPREADS QPF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS             
EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.  00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 60KT                     
MID-LEVEL JET STREAKING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...HELPING PUSH               
PRECIP RAPIDLY TOWARD THE E/NE.  LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM                     
THIS...AS PRECIP HAS NOW REACHED THE FAR WESTERN KLSX CWA.  WILL                
THEREFORE FOLLOW THE GFS SOLUTION MOST CLOSELY...BRINGING POPS INTO             
THE W AND S CWA THIS MORNING...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA            
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHARP SURFACE DEWPOINT GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS                  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CURRENTLY...WITH VALUES AOA 60 DEGREES FROM                    
CHAMPAIGN TO DECATUR SOUTHWARD...WHILE ONLY AROUND 50 ACROSS THE                
NORTHWEST.  THINK NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS WILL                     
BASICALLY FOLLOW THIS GRADIENT.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY                
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PARIS TO SHELBYVILLE LINE...WITH                      
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER POPS TO THE NORTH.  SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER             
PRECIP WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME DRY LOWER-LEVELS ACROSS THE FAR NW              
CWA...BUT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND 00Z GFS/CANADIAN...FEEL A            
LOW POP IS WARRANTED EVEN THERE.                                                
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE HIGH TEMPS...AS CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE INTO THE              
AREA.  HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...AND              
MID CLOUD DECK IS POISED JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH              
CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING...THE W AND SW CWA WILL            
HAVE LITTLE TIME TO WARM...WHILE AREAS FURTHER N AND E SHOULD SEE A             
SOME SUNSHINE AND THUS MORE WARMING.  AS A RESULT...HIGHS SHOULD                
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S W AND SW...TO THE UPPER 70S SE.                        
TEXAS LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...REACHING              
SW OHIO BY 12Z FRI.  WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...WHILE TAPERING POPS OFF                      
ELSEWHERE.  SLOWER NAM LINGERS PRECIP INTO FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS                
LARGELY DRY AFTER 12Z FRI.  WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE HERE...AND GO             
WITH A LOW POP FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I-57.  AFTER                    
THAT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN DURING THE                                 
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH               
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ON TAP FRIDAY NIGHT AND             
SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.                       
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
IN THE EXTENDED...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY...RESULTING            
IN LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN.  ALOFT...RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF                 
COAST...WHILE "DIRTY" SW UPPER FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE MIDWEST.               
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVES WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE               
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE                
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL WAVES...FEEL ONLY SLIGHT                
POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  MEANWHILE...850MB TEMPS STEADILY              
RISE...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.             
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN/BARNES                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1106 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATED ZPF TO INCLUDE FOG MENTION...WITH SOME LOCALLY DENSE 1/4SM              
VISBYS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING           
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL BNDRY LRY MOISTURE FROM LIGHT RAINS.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005)                         
SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU SAT NGT                                                  
EXITING SERN SYS TNGT AND PCPN CHCS THIS WEEKEND PRIMARY FCST                   
EMPHASIS.  HAVE KEPT PCPN MENTION GOING THIS EVE SERN PTNS   LG WV              
TROF PUSHING THRU MID MS VLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MATURE SYS.                  
RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF GRTLKS JET AIDING UVM OVR IL/IN WITH WELL                 
DEFINED SHRT WV INVOF KMKC AND ASSOCD DEFORMATION ZN ACRS SERN FA.              
DECENT MID LVL QG FORCING OCCURRING ALG WITH LIFT VIA 305K ISENT                
SFC.  LOW LVL MSTR HAS INCRD SOMEWHAT BUT LATEST LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS             
SHOW VERY STABLE AMS IN SATURATED LYR BLO 700MB AND THIS MAY BE                 
HOLDING PCPN BACK.                                                              
FAIR WX XPCD FRI WITH RDG IN PLACE BUT MOVES AWAY AS WEEKEND APCHS.             
GFS/NAM NOT TOO DISSIMILAR THRU PD BUT AM LEANING TWRD GFS PER                  
PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT SYS TO OUR S AND OTHERS IN THE RECENT                  
PAST.  REMNANTS OF SYS OFF CA CST ALG 33N 127W REACH MO VLY SAT AND             
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT.  QPF NIL BUT THREW IN SLGT CHC WORDING FOR AT              
LEAST A START WITH INCRG QG FORCING AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
NEGATIVE.  PATCHY ISENT LIFT SAT INTO SAT NGT ALG 310K SFC TOO SO               
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO CHG LOW CHC WORDING GOING SAT NGT.               
TEMPS SHOULD COOL NICELY AGN NRN/WRN PTNS SO STAYED NR COOL END OF              
GUIDANCE...BUT WENT AOA WRMR END SE.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COOL               
END OF GUIDANCE BETTER FRI...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WRMR END               
SAT.                                                                            
LONG TERM...SUN THRU THU                                                        
APPRECIABLE PCPN WINDOW IN THIS TIME FRAME APPRS TO HAVE SHRUNK                 
SOMEWHAT WITH SYS EXITING FA BY MON EVE.  MDLS ARE IN BETTER                    
AGREEMENT WITH EARLY TIMING BRINGING CDFNT SLOWLY THRU FA SUN AND               
SUN NGT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MON SE.  HAVE NOT CHGD FCST MUCH              
IN THIS TIME PD STAYING WITH CHC WORDING...HIGHEST SUN NGT ERN SXNS             
AFT PEAK HEATING AHD OF CFP.  SOME CONCERN REGARDING AMT OF                     
CIN...BUT DEEP SHEAR CERTAINLY ADEQUATE WITH MLCAPES ARND 2000 J/KG             
SO SVR WX POSSIBLE.                                                             
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL TUE-THU BUT DO NOT FEEL SIGNAL STG ENOUGH TO                
MENTION ATTM.  THERE IS LTL AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MDLS AND                
ENSEMBLES WITH REGARD TO PTN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE...AND RESULTANT                
FNTL PSNS.                                                                      
JUDGING FM MDL H85 TEMPS AND SW-NE ORIENTED FNT...HAVE KEPT SUN                 
TEMPS NR WARMER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPCLLY SERN PTNS BUT MID CLDS AND              
BNDRY PSN WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  NAM HAS FNT THRU FA BY 00Z MON.               
ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS NARROWED THE GAP CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...DEGREE              
OF COOL OFF QUESTIONABLE AFT CFP WITH SOME SPREAD IN H85 TEMPS AND              
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE.  AMT OF MIXING SUSPECT TOO.  STAYED CLOSE TO             
ENSEMBLE AVG FOR MAXES AND MINS WITH LCL CLIMO ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE              
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/STEINBUGL                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
324 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU SAT NGT                                                 
EXITING SERN SYS TNGT AND PCPN CHCS THIS WEEKEND PRIMARY FCST                   
EMPHASIS.  HAVE KEPT PCPN MENTION GOING THIS EVE SERN PTNS   LG WV              
TROF PUSHING THRU MID MS VLY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN MATURE SYS.                  
RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF GRTLKS JET AIDING UVM OVR IL/IN WITH WELL                 
DEFINED SHRT WV INVOF KMKC AND ASSOCD DEFORMATION ZN ACRS SERN FA.              
DECENT MID LVL QG FORCING OCCURRING ALG WITH LIFT VIA 305K ISENT                
SFC.  LOW LVL MSTR HAS INCRD SOMEWHAT BUT LATEST LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS             
SHOW VERY STABLE AMS IN SATURATED LYR BLO 700MB AND THIS MAY BE                 
HOLDING PCPN BACK.                                                              
FAIR WX XPCD FRI WITH RDG IN PLACE BUT MOVES AWAY AS WEEKEND APCHS.             
GFS/NAM NOT TOO DISSIMILAR THRU PD BUT AM LEANING TWRD GFS PER                  
PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT SYS TO OUR S AND OTHERS IN THE RECENT                  
PAST.  REMNANTS OF SYS OFF CA CST ALG 33N 127W REACH MO VLY SAT AND             
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT.  QPF NIL BUT THREW IN SLGT CHC WORDING FOR AT              
LEAST A START WITH INCRG QG FORCING AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES             
NEGATIVE.  PATCHY ISENT LIFT SAT INTO SAT NGT ALG 310K SFC TOO SO               
CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO CHG LOW CHC WORDING GOING SAT NGT.               
TEMPS SHOULD COOL NICELY AGN NRN/WRN PTNS SO STAYED NR COOL END OF              
GUIDANCE...BUT WENT AOA WRMR END SE.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST COOL               
END OF GUIDANCE BETTER FRI...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH WRMR END               
SAT.                                                                            
.LONG TERM...SUN THRU THU                                                       
APPRECIABLE PCPN WINDOW IN THIS TIME FRAME APPRS TO HAVE SHRUNK                 
SOMEWHAT WITH SYS EXITING FA BY MON EVE.  MDLS ARE IN BETTER                    
AGREEMENT WITH EARLY TIMING BRINGING CDFNT SLOWLY THRU FA SUN AND               
SUN NGT...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MON SE.  HAVE NOT CHGD FCST MUCH              
IN THIS TIME PD STAYING WITH CHC WORDING...HIGHEST SUN NGT ERN SXNS             
AFT PEAK HEATING AHD OF CFP.  SOME CONCERN REGARDING AMT OF                     
CIN...BUT DEEP SHEAR CERTAINLY ADEQUATE WITH MLCAPES ARND 2000 J/KG             
SO SVR WX POSSIBLE.                                                             
SOME PCPN POTENTIAL TUE-THU BUT DO NOT FEEL SIGNAL STG ENOUGH TO                
MENTION ATTM.  THERE IS LTL AGREEMENT AMONG OPERATIONAL MDLS AND                
ENSEMBLES WITH REGARD TO PTN SPEED AND AMPLITUDE...AND RESULTANT                
FNTL PSNS.                                                                      
JUDGING FM MDL H85 TEMPS AND SW-NE ORIENTED FNT...HAVE KEPT SUN                 
TEMPS NR WARMER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPCLLY SERN PTNS BUT MID CLDS AND              
BNDRY PSN WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  NAM HAS FNT THRU FA BY 00Z MON.               
ALTHOUGH 12Z GFS HAS NARROWED THE GAP CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...DEGREE              
OF COOL OFF QUESTIONABLE AFT CFP WITH SOME SPREAD IN H85 TEMPS AND              
ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE.  AMT OF MIXING SUSPECT TOO.  STAYED CLOSE TO             
ENSEMBLE AVG FOR MAXES AND MINS WITH LCL CLIMO ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE              
TIME BEING.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL/BOKSA                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
626 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DEFORMATION BAND WITH SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS HAS SPAWNED                 
REDEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES.  EXPECT THIS              
TO MOVE EAST FOLLOWING IN WAKE OF STEADIER RAINFALL.  LATEST RUC NOW            
SHOWING PRECIP THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  GIVEN             
THE COLD POCKET ALOFT...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEATHER.                                                      
PF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AT 5 AM CDT...                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF ENDING OF PRECIPITATION THEN                  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY.  PROBLEMS TONIGHT CONCERN FOG POTENTIAL.              
BEYOND THIS THEN IS TIMING OF SHORTWAVES FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES              
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEAR               
END OF PERIOD.                                                                  
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE PUSHING SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED THIS WAVE EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.  ISENTROPIC                
LIFT HELPED SPARK THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS                    
YESTERDAY THEN THE UPPER WAVE DYNAMICS TOOK OVER.  EXPECT                       
PRECIPITATION TO BE ENDING BY SUNRISE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AND OVER              
ALL BUT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY AFTERNOON.                
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH FEATURE AND TRAILING BEHIND...CLOUDS              
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...GOING               
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 80 NORTHWEST.                           
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE AREA.  LIGHT WINDS AND             
FEW CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE DOWN.  EARLIER                  
FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG ALREADY IN THE ZONES.  WITH THE HEAVIER                 
RAINFALL THINK THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FOG SO                    
CARRIED THIS WORDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHERN AND            
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CWA.  DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS                 
DRIED OUT WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR                
DENSE FOG.  SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEWPOINTS RISING WITH HEIGHTS IN THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER AS IS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT UPPER 40S IN THE KANSAS               
RIVER VALLEY FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.               
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  SURFACE HAS                
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BUT FRIDAY EVENING            
UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTEN AND LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH                
PLAINS.  EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING              
INTO THE MORE SEASONAL LOWER 80S.                                               
BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS HINTING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTH OF                
SOUTHWEST FLOW.  MOISTURE SEEMS SOMEWHAT SPARSE TO START WITH                   
HOWEVER WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINE TO SATURATE THE MID              
LAYERS.  THE 310 THETA SURFACE HAS PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS               
IN LESS THAN 20 DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AFTER 06Z AND                 
SPREADING TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA 12-18Z.  THE NAM AS THE GFS            
BUT SLOWER.  GIVEN THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW POPS TO SOUTHERN                
PORTIONS OF CWA AS WELL ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  IF GFS IS               
RIGHT...MOST LIFT WILL BE OUT OF AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AGAIN THE            
NAM A BIT SLOWER.  HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND IT                
SHOULD TURN BREEZY BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE AS LEE SIDE TROUGH                   
DEEPENS.                                                                        
MODELS HAVE SEVERAL OTHER SHORTWAVES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA                    
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  EACH OF THESE HAS SOME POTENTIAL             
FOR RAINFALL AND THEY ALSO DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA                
WITH TIME AS WELL BY LATE MONDAY.  CURRENT EXTENDED SPREADS SOME LOW            
POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE AT            
THIS POINT.  GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH FEATURES THIS RUN THOUGH.              
LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.  MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX'S SOME IF LATEST MEX            
NUMBERS ARE SUPPORTED BY MORNING GFS RUN AS IT DROPS HIGHS MONDAY               
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  FOR NOW GOING WITH MID TO UPPER               
80S SUNDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY.  DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY               
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.                                       
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PF                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
307 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ENE                 
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE             
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MO...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT                   
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THEN CURVING BACK SOUTHEASTWARD               
INTO SOUTHERN WV. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST THE SURFACE LOW            
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GFS HAVING IT IN SOUTHWEST               
OHIO BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND THE NAM MOVING PRIMARY LOW INTO SW NY                
STATE AT THE SAME TIME. PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF ONGING                       
PRECIPITATION OVER IL...WRN KY AND TN. THE GFS POINTS TOWARDS THE               
SPLITTING OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA THAT IS BEING OBSERVED WITH                 
PRIMARY CONVECTION IN TN AND RAIN N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN IL. THE              
UPPER JET PLACES THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER IN AND OHIO                     
TONIGHT...AND BOTH GFS AND NAM POINT TOWARDS THIS. DESPITE THIS THE             
NAM GENERATES STRONGER UVV OVER ERN KY TONIGHT THAN THE GFS. AS SUCH            
THE MET MOS POPS LOOKS TOO HIGH TONIGHT. PREFER GFS OVERALL HANDLING            
OF SITUATION AND THUS LEAN TOWARDS LOWER MAV MOS POPS. ON FRIDAY                
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF ERN KY BASED ON               
THE PREFERRED GFS...BUT DESPITE THIS THE MAV MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY IS             
HIGHER THAN TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE                 
MODEL ITSELF...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.            
BUT STILL TO BE WATCHED ON FRIDAY IS THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE               
MAKING ITS WAY INTO AREA AS SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE                        
NORTHEAST...SO THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH                      
INSTABILITY. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND                  
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HOWEVER. WITH GFS PREFERRED MODEL HAVE                
LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF             
PERIODS OF FORECAST AS WELL.                                                    
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                           
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE BUBBLE HIGH WHICH WILL                
GROW OVER TX THRU THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BE BOOKENDED BY A TROUGH            
IN THE MEANS OVER THE NE AND A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH WILL HANG BACK OVER            
CA. THIS LOW WILL SPIT OUT PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG               
THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY WILL WANDER AROUND NEARBY...AND ACTIVATE WITH THE ARRIVAL              
OF THESE SHORTWAVES. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES IS ALWAYS                
TRICKY IN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MODELS ARE VARYING                  
AMONGST EACH OTHER AND WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...THEREFORE                     
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD IS NOT REAL HIGH.                 
MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL CONSENSUS THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NE OVER KY AS            
WE GET LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                        
HAVE LEFT SUN AND SUN NIGHT DRY AS A SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST OFF TO              
THE NE. FRONT IS PROGGED BY GFS AND ECMWF TO DROP OVER THE AREA AS              
THE HIGH IS SHOVED EWARD ON MON AND THE FRONT LINGERS THRU AT LEAST             
WED NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING S OF THE AREA OR JUST DISSIPATING. FLOW                
ALOFT IS OUT OF THE NW THRU THE PERIOD SO THE GULF IS CLOSED FOR                
BUSINESS AND PCPN CHANCES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW            
SO KEPT POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT MON THRU WED NIGHT. DRIED THINGS            
OUT ON THU AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.                                         
TEMPS WERE HELD FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT DID RAISE A LITTLE FOR             
THE DAYTIME HIGHS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WITH EXPECTED DRY GROUND                  
CONDITIONS HELPING US GAIN SOME POINTS OVER MOS. LOWS WERE                      
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SOME TWEAKING TO CAPTURE A RIDGE VALLEY                 
SPLIT ON SUN NIGHT AND ON WED NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
AT 12Z STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NR PAH TO SDF TO HTS THEN ON            
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH            
CONVECTION NOW INTO WESTERN KY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS TOPS WARMING WEST            
KY AND COLDER TOPS AND BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH INTO            
W TN. BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF LOW IN                 
SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS IDEA OF KEEPING DRY                
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY HERE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 20 POPS AND WILL               
LIKELY LEAVE THAT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS             
TO HOURLY GRIDDED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. WILL ALSO UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE                
MORNING FOG WORDING.                                                            
457 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LAYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA              
THIS MORNING. IT REALLY FELL APART AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH CLOUDINESS            
OR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THIS MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO A LITTLE                 
EXTRA SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OPHELIA. THERE IS A VERY             
ACTIVE FRONTAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA                 
WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS AREA AS IT             
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL            
BE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING ACROSS COVINGTON. AT 2 AM EDT THIS EVENING...THE LOW WILL             
BE CENTERED OVER COLUMBUS OHIO WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS             
LEXINGTON AND THEN INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL             
THEN OCCLUDE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 8PM               
EDT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING            
OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE POPS. THE              
NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. THE             
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO.                                                 
SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WENT WITH            
THE HIGHEST MOS TEMPS. WENT WILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                    
TODAY...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS MODEL AND MOS. EXPECT THE               
PRECIP FROM PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS                 
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE              
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL               
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH                
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.                                   
THE COOLER AIR WILL BE POURING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL               
BRING THE TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD            
BE IDEAL WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS A STRONG            
HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS AND MOS LOOKED GOOD                       
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH/ABE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1103 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
CURRENT IR SATELLITE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER WESTERN KY                 
ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKENING MCS. ALTHOUGH MCS IS WEAKENING               
NORTH AND STILL GOING STRONG OVER WESTERN TN...MCV VERY MUCH                    
DEVELOPED PER PAH RADAR. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR OHIO             
RIVER OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS GENERALLY                 
ACROSS KY. AS MCV PROGRESSES EASTWARD...COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/FEW                  
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS LOW-LEVEL JET                     
VEERS/WEAKENS. HOWEVER...AIRMASS OVERHEAD CAPABLE OF BECOMING WEAKLY            
UNSTABLE AS LONG AS CLOUDS STAY THIN. CURRENT ACARS SOUNDING SHOWING            
LOW-LEVEL CAP ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED...AND EDITING A SIMILAR RUC              
SOUNDING FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMP/DEW...MLCAPES COULD BE AROUND              
1000 J/KG. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FORCING/INSTABILITY TO KEEP                     
SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                     
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER LITTLE ROCK ATTM                      
CONTINUING TOWARD THE REGION ALONG WITH AMPLE BULK SHEAR...THINK                
MAIN FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPING COMPLEX WILL BE LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY                 
MORNING OVER NORTHERN KY/SOUTHERN IND. SO WILL TWEAK BACK POPS                  
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD. NO OTHER CHANGES              
NEEDED. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AT 12Z STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NR PAH TO SDF TO HTS THEN ON            
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH            
CONVECTION NOW INTO WESTERN KY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS TOPS WARMING WEST            
KY AND COLDER TOPS AND BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH INTO            
W TN. BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF LOW IN                 
SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS IDEA OF KEEING DRY                 
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY HERE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 20 POPS AND WILL               
LIKELY LEAVE THAT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS             
TO HOURLY GRIDDED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. WILL ALSO UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE                
MORNING FOG WORDING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
457 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2005                                                      
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LAYING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA              
THIS MORNING. IT REALLY FELL APART AND DOES NOT HAVE MUCH CLOUDINESS            
OR PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THIS MAY PARTIALLY BE DUE TO A LITTLE                 
EXTRA SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE OPHELIA. THERE IS A VERY             
ACTIVE FRONTAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA                 
WHICH WILL ESSENTIALLY BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKER FOR THIS AREA AS IT             
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL            
BE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING WITH A WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING ACROSS COVINGTON. AT 2 AM EDT THIS EVENING...THE LOW WILL             
BE CENTERED OVER COLUMBUS OHIO WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS             
LEXINGTON AND THEN INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL             
THEN OCCLUDE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 8PM               
EDT FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING            
OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE POPS. THE              
NAM HAS MUCH HIGHER POPS THAN THE GFS THROUGH THE WHOLE PERIOD. THE             
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO.                                                 
SINCE THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WENT WITH            
THE HIGHEST MOS TEMPS. WENT WILL ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                    
TODAY...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH THE GFS MODEL AND MOS. EXPECT THE               
PRECIP FROM PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS                 
EVENING AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE              
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL               
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH                
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE OCCLUDED FRONT.                                   
THE COOLER AIR WILL BE POURING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND WILL               
BRING THE TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS. THIS WEEKEND SHOULD            
BE IDEAL WITH MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS A STRONG            
HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS AND MOS LOOKED GOOD                       
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005                                                     
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. A FEW                   
SHOWERS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE EVENING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE...BUT THEY DIED WITH LOSS OF             
HEATING AND LOSS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THEY MOVED EAST. SINCE                
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SUPPORT FOR PRECIP OVERNIGHT...HAVE               
LOWERED POPS TO 10%. WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS FOR VALLEYS TO                
COOL EFFECTIVELY THIS EVENING (8 DEG COOLER AT WEST LIBERTY THAN AT             
JKL AT 9 PM)...HAVE OPENED A RANGE OF 62 TO 67 AND ADDED PATCHY FOG.            
305 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005                                                      
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                   
FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 18Z EXTENDS FROM NW OHIO              
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MODELS AGREE WITH                  
CURRENT TRENDS ON BRINGING FRONT INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE                
MODELS POINT TOWARDS DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR AREA. ALL 3 MOS HAVE            
POPS LESS THAN 20 FOR MOST OF AREA TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE 20            
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THOUGH...CONSIDERING WE ALREADY HAD            
THIS IN THE FORECAST...AND PREFER TO NOT DROP POPS COMPLETELY WITH              
FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN             
OUR VICINITY AND AWAIT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF THE            
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL IN TURN GENERATE A SURFACE WAVE ON THE               
FRONT. THE NAM...GFS...AND UKMET GENERATE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT              
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE IS SOME                   
DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS...BUT MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH            
FOCUSING BEST QPF TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR            
RAIN FOR EASTERN KY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING              
AND WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS THEN. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES                      
EAST...THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.                          
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOKED GOOD...AND MADE ONLY MINOR              
ADJUSTMENTS. FOR TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD WILL BE THE DETERMINING            
FACTOR IN TEMPERATURES...AND THIS ALONG WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS                   
ADVECTING INTO AREA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE PAST               
SEVERAL NIGHTS. MORE CLOUD WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY LOWER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.                     
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                
THE 12Z RUNS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE WAVE                
EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH THE             
NAM AND GFS SWEEP THIS THROUGH WITH SIMILAR TIMING WITH MAINLY OUR              
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AFFECTED. RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FROM              
THE SOUTHWEST KEEPING SHORTWAVES AWAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG WAVE            
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING WITH                  
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN SWIFTLY IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SFC...EXPECT               
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST WAVE TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY            
AND QUIET WEATHER WILL COMMENCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS              
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. FOR TUESDAY AND INTO                
WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DROP              
DOWN AND STALL OVER THE AREA BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN TO EAST            
KENTUCKY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THIS IN THE SLIGHT RANGE AS THERE                   
REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THIS            
BOUNDARY WILL HAVE AVAILABLE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SBH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
725 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO CANCEL THE SVR WATCH FOR EXTREME NE TX                 
AND SW AR. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING POPS                       
TONIGHT...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER SW AR HAS DWINDLED IN                  
COVERAGE...AND EARLIER SVR STORM OVER VAN ZANDT COUNTY TX HAS                   
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...AS WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                        
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TYR...TO TATUM...TO N SHV...TO DUBACH AND                   
FARMERVILLE UNDERCUT THE VAN ZANDT STORM AND ALLOWED IT TO                      
COLLAPSE AS IT ENTERED S WOOD/NW SMITH COUNTY. COLD FRONT STILL                 
LIES FROM JUST S OF THE DFW METROPLEX...TO NEAR MLC...TO FYV...AND              
BASED ON VERY WEAK PRESSURE RISES NOTED ON THE 00Z MSAS                         
ANALYSIS...FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME REACHING THE AREA...PERHAPS                 
FRIDAY MORNING/SUNRISE AT THE EARLIEST OVER THE NW ZONES. A QUICK               
LOOK AT THE RUC/18Z NAM INDICATES THE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IN PLACE               
OVER OK WILL SHIFT E INTO AR LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE RUC MAINTAINS               
MORE OF A SW-NE THETA-E AXIS ALONG A 20-25 KT LLJ AXIS FROM NE                  
TX/NW LA INTO SW AR TONIGHT...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE REDEVELOPMENT                 
OVERNIGHT. BUT THE NAM MAINTAINS MORE OF A WESTERLY 850MB FLOW                  
WELL AHEAD OF THE 850MB TROUGH OVER SE OK...WHICH WOULD TAPER ANY               
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE LOWERED POPS A TAD...BUT                  
MAINTAINED CHANCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ALSO MADE BEEFED UP SKY                 
GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD COVER...BUT LEFT GOING MIN TEMPS                    
ALONE. WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT CPL. HOURS AND                
DECIDE THEN IF ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  72  89  68  91 /  50  40  10   0                                           
MLU  72  89  66  90 /  40  40  10   0                                           
DEQ  65  86  59  89 /  40  10  10   0                                           
TXK  69  88  66  90 /  40  20  10   0                                           
ELD  68  87  63  89 /  40  30  10   0                                           
TYR  71  89  69  92 /  50  30  10   0                                           
GGG  70  89  67  91 /  50  40  10   0                                           
LFK  74  92  70  94 /  30  40  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
342 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE MINOR PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING PCPN            
CHANCE LATE SAT/SUN.                                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A ZONAL FLOW FROM THE                 
PACIFIC NW/SW CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO. A FAIRLY                       
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED FROM SRN MANITOBA TO WRN ONTARIO...            
AND A NARROW BAND OF MID CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WEAKENING ZONE             
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF WAVE. EVEN A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES              
WERE OCCURRING EARLIER IN THE DAY. INFLOW AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY                  
THOUGH AS 12Z KMPX SOUNDING SHOWS DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 10-15C BLO                
775MB. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY TO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF                     
SHRA/TSRA.                                                                      
GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUING              
TO WEAKEN THRU THE EVENING AS IT TRANSLATES E OVER UPPER MI IN                  
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE SHIFTING ACROSS ONTARIO. GIVEN THE                   
WEAKENING LIFT...THE DRY SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS AND LATEST                    
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS. TO THE                     
S...SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/LWR LAKES REGION WILL                
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH S TO POSE NO THREAT OF PCPN OVER FCST AREA.                   
HOWEVER...SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH SE FCST AREA.            
GFS/NAM MOS NUMBERS ARE SIMILAR AND LOOK REASONABLE FOR MINS                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY FRI. WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH                     
SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE N TONIGHT WILL HANG UP NW OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR AND WON'T BE A FACTOR FOR PCPN CONCERNS IN UPPER MI ON FRI.            
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MIXING TO 850MB OR SO ON GFS/NAM FCST                
SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ON TARGET              
WITH GFS/NAM MOS NUMBERS. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI                    
NIGHT.                                                                          
MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS              
SRN END OF TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRI DROPS OUT OF FASTER FLOW TO             
THE N. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BE THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THE              
WEATHER HERE SAT NIGHT/SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA TO ONTARIO.            
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY FOR MID SEPT ON SAT AS S TO            
SW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MIXING TO 850MB            
OR SO ON GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES                 
YIELDS HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S (WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR              
LAKE MICHIGAN). WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS TOP 80. BY            
THE WAY...RECORD FOR SAT AT KMQT IS 82.                                         
GFS/NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING COLD FRONT             
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS UPPER MI                
SUN. PRIOR TO THAT...30-35KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS ACROSS FCST AREA              
SAT NIGHT. EVEN SO...NOT IMPRESSED BY POTENTIAL OF ELEVATED                     
CONVECTION WITH JET. GFS/NAM SHOW LITTLE OR NO 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE OR NO CAPE FOR PARCELS               
LIFTED ANYWHERE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. DUE TO PROXIMITY OF                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL ONLY MENTION A LOW CHC OF TSRA OVER               
THE W...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT. WILL THEN SPREAD CHC POPS              
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN WITH COLD FRONT.                                         
MON-THU...00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE MOVED TOWARD MUCH BETTER            
AGREEMENT FOR NEXT WEEK...AND FORTUNATELY...THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS              
ARE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GOING FCST WHICH WAS NOT THROWN OFF                  
YESTERDAY BY THE CHAOS OF THE MODEL RUNS 24HRS AGO. OVER THE LAST               
FEW DAYS...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND PREFERRED                 
MODEL...AND NOW THE OTHER 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED                  
TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT TODAY...WILL              
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE                 
UPPER LAKES REGION ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA LATE SUN. ONLY               
POTENTIAL PROBLEM WILL BE WHETHER THE SHORTWAVE THAT DROPS OUT OF               
THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW DISCUSSED EARLIER INDUCES A WAVE ALONG               
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED LATE SUN...AND THEN THAT WAVE LIFTS INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES MON ALONG THE FRONT PER 12Z GFS. EVEN THE JUST                  
ARRIVED 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE SHOWING THIS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN               
THE DRY MON FCST AND WAIT TO SEE IF THIS IS A SOLID TREND AND IF THE            
WAVE WILL LIFT FAR ENOUGH N TO BRING PCPN TO UPPER MI. AFTER A                  
CHILLY NIGHT MON NIGHT (PROBABLY UPPER 30S AT THE USUAL INTERIOR                
COLD SPOTS)...SFC HIGH PRES SLIDES OFF TO THE E TUE/TUE NIGHT AS                
NEXT SHORTWAVE HEADS ACROSS SRN CANADA. SINCE TREND IS FOR THE BULK             
OF THIS ENERGY TO PASS N OF FCST AREA AND SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE            
TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT ANY PCPN WILL OCCUR              
WITH FROPA TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE GOING FCST HAD CHC            
POPS...WILL SIMPLY DROP POPS TO SLGHT CHC FOR TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING.            
IF FROPA STILL LOOKS DRY IN LATER MODEL RUNS...POPS CAN BE DROPPED              
IN LATER FCSTS. WILL GO WITH A DRY FCST ON THU AS BOUNDARY STALLS               
OUT WELL S OF HERE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
330 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE PRIMARY ISSUE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE RAIN                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER NW MO AT 18Z...                
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES?  THAT BRINGS THE ISSUE OF             
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES WITH IT TOO.  THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH               
THE CLEARING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT THAN IS THE NAM. SO              
THE QUESITION THERE IS WHICH IS CORRECT?                                        
THE GFS HAS SHOWN BETTER CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST              
24 HRS THAN HAS THE NAM.  ALSO THE GFS PCPN AREA BETTER MATCHES WHAT            
IS ACTUALLY OUT THERE (09Z THROUGH 18Z) WHILE THE NAM IS NOT FAR                
ENOUGH NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR WITH RAIN.  LOOKING AT TAMDAR                    
DATA...SEEMS THE NAM AS TO DRY OF AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (THAT               
WOULD EXPLAIN IT).  NO MATTER WHAT...THIS IS A STRONG WAVE WITH GOOD            
DYNAMICS AND AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE DIRECT                 
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE THE JET ENTRANCE REGION EVENTS.  SOME                     
SUGGESTION OF JET COUPLING TOO. BOTH THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ALL SHOW             
GOOD 700 TO 300 MB FGEN FORCING TONIGHT (06Z MAX).  THERE IS STRONG             
DPVA FROM 700 TO 400 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z  OVER MOST OF THE CWA.              
THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NEAR 0 MB OVER THE SRN CWA               
OVERNIGHT TOO.  THERE IS OVER 1 1/2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER                
WITH THE INFLOW SECTION OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADD TO THAT DECENT                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 700 MB (WINDS AT RIGHT ANGLE TO HEIGHT                     
SURFACES) PLUS A COLD CONVEYOR BELT SET UP... AND LITTLE QUESTION IT            
WILL RAIN. THERE IS AN ISSUE WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ON THE MODEL                
SOUNDING BUT TAMDAR DATA SUGGEST THE NAM AND RUC ARE TO DRY THERE.              
TONIGHT... NEAR 100 PCT POP FOR I-94 BY 09Z.  LIKELY POP BETWEEN                
I-94 AND I-96 AND CHC POP I-94 TO ROUTE 10.  OTHERWISE MOSTLY                   
CLOUDY. RAIN WILL BRING AIR TEMP TO DEW POINT SO LOWS IN THE LOWER              
TO MID 50S.                                                                     
FRIDAY...RAIN ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT. I THINK             
THE NAM CLEARS THIS SYSTEM OUT A LITTLE TO FAST BUT THE GFS IS TO               
SLOW. THE UPSTREAM WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH RIDGE BUILDING IN                 
FRONT OF IT TO ALLOW CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY.  LIMITED HIGHS DUE TO            
RAIN AND CLOUDS.  I COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S IN AREAS THE               
RAIN A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.                                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT...UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS IN. SO SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. THAT            
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO FALL TO NEAR 50 MOST LOCATION AND 40S               
NORTH.                                                                          
SATURDAY...RIDGE OVERHEAD AND AS A RESULT CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AN              
MUCH WARMER. THICKNESS RESPONSE NICELY AS RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. NAM             
THICKNESS WARMING LIKELY TO STRONG THOUGH. HIGHS MID TO UPPER 70S.              
SATURDAY NIGHT...RIDGE MOVES TO EAST BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY                 
CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE            
BETWEEN 45 AND 55.                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.               
TIMING SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN STICKING POINT             
IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS HAVE FLIPPED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY. NOW,             
THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER IN MOVING THE WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE             
CWA. AND UNLIKE YESTERDAY, NOW THE NOGAPS/GFS/DGEX MODELS PUSH THE              
FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE GEM CONTINUES TO             
SHOW A SLOWER SOLUTION JUST LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MY THINKING                  
HASN'T CHANGED THOUGH. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PUSH SYNOPTIC                    
FEATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY QUICKER RATHER THAN SLOWER. THEREFORE,              
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IN LINE WITH THE             
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, NOW.                                                    
THE DGEX SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN LATE            
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT ALSO SHOWS PCPN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN                
IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN            
AND NORTHERN INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER                
MODELS SHOW A FARTHER NORTH WAVE...OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND ARE                  
WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM...AND DON'T PRODUCE PCPN. GIVEN THE UPPER                
HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE LONE STAR STATE...A QUICK MOISTURE RETURN                
DOESN'T SEEM LIKELY. THEREFORE WE'LL LEAN TOWARD A DRY FORECAST                 
MONDAY NIGHT. THE OTHER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY               
TOO, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO GENERATING FAIR WX BEFORE AND                
AFTER FROPA.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM 93                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
135 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK INTO               
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. CIRRUS ALREADY THICKENING OUT              
AHEAD OF IT...AND THIS TREND OF LOWERING CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE            
THROUGH THE EVENING. MOIST/WARM ADVECTION PICKS UP ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN CWA TONIGHT...WITH A GOOD DEFORMATION AXIS SWINGING THROUGH            
OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. 12Z NAM CONTINUES ITS FASTER AND FARTHER              
NORTHWEST TREND OF THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AND BRINGS UP TO AN                
INCH OF QPF INTO DTW STARTING AFTER 06Z. 12Z GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH            
THE SURFACE WAVE...BUT ITS SOLUTION SEEMS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE                
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UPPER WAVE/JET AND THE SURFACE LOW. 12Z                
WRF-XX IS CLOSER TO THE GFS TIMING...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS                  
SIMILAR TO THE NAM. KEPT THE SAME GENERAL FAVOR TO THE TAFS...BUT               
WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC ESPECIALLY WITH CIGS AT DTW/DET. WIDESPREAD               
IFR CIGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS MISSOURI/KANSAS BETWEEN THE                  
DEFORMATION AXIS AND SURFACE WAVE. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL             
MOISTURE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...BROUGHT IN A BKN IFR DECK             
BY FRIDAY MORNING AT DTW/DET. KEPT MBS DRY AND VFR...AS THERE SHOULD            
BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP ON THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM.               
FNT WILL BE TRICKY IN BETWEEN...AND WILL STICK WITH A TEMPO RAIN FOR            
NOW. IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT...AS THE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING                 
DEFORMATION AXIS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT...WOULD NEED TO CARRY                    
PREDOMINATE RAIN AND MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD.                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...1040 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                           
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE                   
SOUTHWEST...WITH PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE                   
AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW                      
70S...ALTHOUGH ACARS DESCENT SOUNDING INTO TOL SHOWS A PROFILE ABOUT            
3C WARMER THAN THE DTX RAOB. 12Z RUC SHOWS A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL              
GRADIENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL             
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE NEXT LOW CONTINUES TO             
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS            
ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY END UP ON THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST            
RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS POINT              
THOUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...ISSUED 330 AM EDT THU                                     
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS REGION TODAY AS LOW                
PRESSURE WORKS EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT AT 500              
MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TENDING TO BE                
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS                        
DEVELOPMENT MOST OF FORECAST AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY AIDED BY            
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T IN THE             
TEENS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SWINGS INTO PLACE...THOUGH              
MODEL SOUNDINGS PRETTY WEAK IN TERMS OF INDICATING MUCH LOW LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS TODAY. ALSO...CUMULUS SCHEME SHOWING POOR DIURNAL                    
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TODAY...REFLECTING VERY LIMITED NEAR SURFACE              
MOISTURE. SO...WILL GO FOR BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...WITH                 
COVERAGE A LITTLE HIGHER EASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME                   
DIMINISHING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS CIRRUS LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN AND              
THICKEN...THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
A DRY DAY TODAY SUPPORTED BY MODEL DEPICTIONS OF GENERAL                        
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.             
OVERALL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND T1 TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4 DEGREES C COOLER.              
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WELL...GIVEN MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED 330 AM EDT THU                                              
HAVE BEEN WORRIED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR A COUPLE DAYS              
NOW. THE PENDULUM CONTINUES TO SWING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION OVER              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING            
A STRONG CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. IT APPEARS THIS             
500MB LOW HAS NORTHWEST OHIO IN ITS SITES...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD            
THE GOOD DEFORMATION/MOISTURE AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                     
00Z GFS IS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM (00Z NOGAPS NOT FAR            
BEHIND)...FORECASTING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (2 TO 3               
INCHES!). IN CONTRAST...00Z WRFXX IS INDICATING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL            
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING SOUTHEAST              
MICHIGAN TOTALLY DRY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD OF THE                
WRFXX IS SUPERIOR WITH OPHELIA...THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL            
CONUS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN INITIALIZED BY 00Z WRFXX AND WILL BE                  
DISCOUNTED. 00Z NAM/RUC13/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS SEEM LIKE A NICE                
COMPROMISE...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH             
NORTHWEST OHIO. ACTUALLY...THE UKMET PUTS THE 500 MB LOW OVER                   
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVERY ONE OF THE THOSE MODELS INDICATE A               
WAVE STRONG ENOUGH TO THROW MOISTURE/RAIN NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST              
MICHIGAN HOWEVER! PLAN ON CARRYING LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY ALONG AND              
SOUTH OF M-59 (CATEGORICAL NEAR OHIO BORDER)...WITH A CHANCE ALONG              
AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL              
LIKELY KEEP MAXES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALSO BUMPED UP MINS            
TONIGHT (50S) DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL                   
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                            
THE EXACT STRENGTH/AMPLIFICATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL                
DETERMINE HOW FAST IT PULLS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AT THE VERY             
LEAST...RAINFALL SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                          
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES                
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.                           
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST THREE                
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IT IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE            
SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDDLE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CUTOFF BY FRIDAY OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THIS UPPER            
LEVEL LOW LINGER BEFORE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. MAJORITY OF                
MODELS INDICATING THIS FEATURE LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY               
DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN            
THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
AS WELL AS IT'S INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...JUST ABOUT ALL MODELS                  
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY                        
TUESDAY...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE CHANCE POPS WITH SUPPORT               
FROM THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN. NOT TO MENTION THE DRY FORECAST WILL             
BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THE 00Z GFS              
DID INDICATE THE SYSTEM WAS AMPLIFYING LEADING TO ANOTHER 500 MB                
CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM            
COULD CUTOFF SOONER AND END UP FARTHER WEST.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE                   
SOUTHWEST...WITH PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST STILL ON TRACK FOR THE                   
AFTERNOON. 12Z DTX SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW                      
70S...ALTHOUGH ACARS DESCENT SOUNDING INTO TOL SHOWS A PROFILE ABOUT            
3C WARMER THAN THE DTX RAOB. 12Z RUC SHOWS A PRETTY DECENT THERMAL              
GRADIENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT WITHOUT MUCH ADDITIONAL             
COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE NEXT LOW CONTINUES TO             
TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS            
ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY END UP ON THE HIGH END OF THE FORECAST            
RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS POINT              
THOUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...740 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                          
FOG PRODUCT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EXTENT OF LOW                
CLOUDS HAS DWINDLED TO MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH              
DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TREND AS PER 06Z GFS/NAM.            
WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUP OF AROUND 5K FEET BROKEN UNTIL 14Z.                       
WITH MODEL CUMULUS SCHEME STILL SHOWING DIURNAL FLAREUP WEAK                    
TODAY...WILL KEEP ALL DIURNAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED AT                     
MOST...ESPECIALLY WITH CIRRUS PUNCHING IN STEADILY FROM THE                     
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT GRADUAL LOWERING OF HIGH CLOUD DECK INTO MID LEVEL            
DECK LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY KDET/KDTW AS PER CLOSER                
PROXIMITY TO SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. WILL                
BRING MVFR CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY IN RAIN AS PROB30 GROUP AFTER 06Z              
KDET/KDTW AND AFTER 10Z AT KFNT. FINALLY...AM CALLING FOR 5 MILES IN            
RAIN...35 HUNDRED FEET OVERCAST CEILING AT KDET/KDTW BY 10Z.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...ISSUED 330 AM EDT THU                                     
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS REGION TODAY AS LOW                
PRESSURE WORKS EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT AT 500              
MB...SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY TENDING TO BE                
MORE AMPLIFIED THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCUMULUS                        
DEVELOPMENT MOST OF FORECAST AREA SINCE MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY AIDED BY            
NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA T IN THE             
TEENS TODAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SWINGS INTO PLACE...THOUGH              
MODEL SOUNDINGS PRETTY WEAK IN TERMS OF INDICATING MUCH LOW LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS TODAY. ALSO...CUMULUS SCHEME SHOWING POOR DIURNAL                    
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TODAY...REFLECTING VERY LIMITED NEAR SURFACE              
MOISTURE. SO...WILL GO FOR BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...WITH                 
COVERAGE A LITTLE HIGHER EASTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT TO SEE SOME                   
DIMINISHING OF LOW CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS CIRRUS LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PLAINS SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE IN AND              
THICKEN...THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
A DRY DAY TODAY SUPPORTED BY MODEL DEPICTIONS OF GENERAL                        
SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.             
OVERALL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AND T1 TEMPERATURES 3 TO 4 DEGREES C COOLER.              
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AS WELL...GIVEN MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED 330 AM EDT THU                                              
HAVE BEEN WORRIED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR A COUPLE DAYS              
NOW. THE PENDULUM CONTINUES TO SWING TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION OVER              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR FRIDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING            
A STRONG CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. IT APPEARS THIS             
500MB LOW HAS NORTHWEST OHIO IN ITS SITES...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD            
THE GOOD DEFORMATION/MOISTURE AXIS INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                     
00Z GFS IS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM (00Z NOGAPS NOT FAR            
BEHIND)...FORECASTING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA (2 TO 3               
INCHES!). IN CONTRAST...00Z WRFXX IS INDICATING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL            
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...KEEPING SOUTHEAST              
MICHIGAN TOTALLY DRY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD OF THE                
WRFXX IS SUPERIOR WITH OPHELIA...THE PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE CENTRAL            
CONUS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN INITIALIZED BY 00Z WRFXX AND WILL BE                  
DISCOUNTED. 00Z NAM/RUC13/CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS SEEM LIKE A NICE                
COMPROMISE...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH             
NORTHWEST OHIO. ACTUALLY...THE UKMET PUTS THE 500 MB LOW OVER                   
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. EVERY ONE OF THE THOSE MODELS INDICATE A               
WAVE STRONG ENOUGH TO THROW MOISTURE/RAIN NORTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST              
MICHIGAN HOWEVER! PLAN ON CARRYING LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY ALONG AND              
SOUTH OF M-59 (CATEGORICAL NEAR OHIO BORDER)...WITH A CHANCE ALONG              
AND JUST NORTH OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL              
LIKELY KEEP MAXES STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ALSO BUMPED UP MINS            
TONIGHT (50S) DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL                   
RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                            
THE EXACT STRENGTH/AMPLIFICATION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL                
DETERMINE HOW FAST IT PULLS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. AT THE VERY             
LEAST...RAINFALL SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                          
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES                
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS.                           
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA/                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AT LEAST THREE                
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. IT IS THE MOST IMPRESSIVE            
SHORTWAVE IN THE MIDDLE WHICH WILL LEAD TO A CUTOFF BY FRIDAY OVER              
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THIS UPPER            
LEVEL LOW LINGER BEFORE OPENING UP AND HEADING EAST. MAJORITY OF                
MODELS INDICATING THIS FEATURE LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY               
DIGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. BIG TIME DIFFERENCES IN            
THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
AS WELL AS IT'S INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. REGARDLESS...JUST ABOUT ALL MODELS                  
INDICATING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES ON MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY                        
TUESDAY...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE CHANCE POPS WITH SUPPORT               
FROM THE 00Z GFS AND EUROPEAN. NOT TO MENTION THE DRY FORECAST WILL             
BETTER MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THE 00Z GFS              
DID INDICATE THE SYSTEM WAS AMPLIFYING LEADING TO ANOTHER 500 MB                
CUTOFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM            
COULD CUTOFF SOONER AND END UP FARTHER WEST.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....DWD                                                                
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
927 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE U.S./            
CNDN BORDER. FA DOMINATED THIS MRNG BY HI PRES RDG AND DRY AIRMASS              
DEPICTED ON THE 12Z GRB SDNG. PTCHY MRNG FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF               
BURNING OFF. FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV OVER SRN MANITOBA EMBEDDED WITHIN               
THE ZONAL FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED COMMA TAIL CLD EXTENDS S INTO MN.               
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHRTWV NOTED ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MOVING EWD.             
THIS SHRTWV IS ROBBING THE NRN ONE OF MSTR...AND 12Z MPX SDNG IS                
QUITE DRY IN A RELATIVE SENSE DESPITE SSW WINDS CLOSE TO 30KT AS LO             
AS 2K FT AGL. A BIT MORE MID LVL MSTR APRNT ON THE INL SDNG...BUT               
LLVLS EVEN THERE CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING AHD OF MANITOBA SHRTWV ARE            
RELATIVELY DRY. SO DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN              
ON THE 300K SFC...JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF -SHRA/--SHRA SHOWN BY THE             
DLH 88D WITHIN THE COMMA TAIL CLD MOVING THRH ERN MN. STLT IMAGERY              
INDICATES MID CLD HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING MUCH PROGRESS E INTO HI             
PRES RDG/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FA. OTRW...NRN EXTENT OF HI CLD                   
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO THE S MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE SRN CWA.                 
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY REVOLVES ARND CLD TRENDS/LO PCPN CHCS                    
ASSOCIATED WITH COMMA TAIL CLD TO THE W. HI TEMPS ALSO A CONCERN.               
LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW LK WINNIPEG SHRTWV TENDING TO MOVE DUE E                
TDAY WELL TO THE N OF LK SUP. ASSOCIATED DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR            
CNVGC PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N OF FA CLOSER TO SHRTWV TRACK              
IN ONTARIO. NAM ODD MODEL OUT GENERATING SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE WRN             
COUNTIES. PREFER DRIER RUC/GFS AS ALL MODELS SHOW 300K ISENTROPIC               
LIFT WEAKENING STEADILY DURING THE DAY. OBSVD STLT/RADAR TRENDS ALSO            
SUPPORT IDEA THAT DRY AIR WL WIN THE DAY. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE               
MENTION OF SPRINKLES OVER FA EXCEPT FOR ISLE ROYALE...WHICH WL BE               
CLOSER TO MAIN DYNAMIC SUPPORT. LATEST STLT TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT                 
ADDING SOME HI CLD TO FCST FOR AT LEAST THE SRN TIER AS SHRTWV TO               
THE S SLIDES ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NRN EXTENT OF CLD MASS                  
IMPACTS THIS AREA. MIXING TO SUBSIDENCE INVRN BASE NR H8 ON THE 12Z             
GRB SDNG/RUC FCST SDNGS INDICATE THAT HI TEMPS WL REACH THE LO                  
70S...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO GOING FCST HI TEMPS.               
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO               
LIFT NORTH...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP NW OF                   
LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH NO SHORTWAVE OR BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION                
ON...GOING DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD.                   
MIXING 850MB OF 10-11C ON GFS/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS                   
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S ON FRI...WITH COOLER TEMPS OF AROUND 70F               
FOR AREAS UPSTREAM OF LAKE MI IN SRLY FLOW.                                     
FRI NIGHT/SAT...WSW ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF A STRONG TROF DIGGING INTO WRN CONUS. DRY                   
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT WILL ALLOW 11-13C 850 MB             
TEMPS TO MIX TO SFC YIELDING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...EXCEPT                
AROUND 70F DOWNWIND OF LAKE MI.                                                 
STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING            
FM WRN CONUS TROF INTO NRN PLAINS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN TIME FRAME.            
00Z GFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN LOOK TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH ADVANCE OF              
SHORTWAVE WHILE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. WHILE GRIDS HAVE CHC OF TSRA            
SPREADING INTO WRN HALF ZONES ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS REST OF              
FCST AREA ON SUN...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF TIMING OF CHC POPS MAY             
NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK SOME BASED ON RECENT TRENDS OF                           
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN.                                                             
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
410 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY            
MOVING PAST AREA. WAVE SLOWED DOWN AND WOUND UP A BIT MORE THAN                 
EXPECTED EARLIER...SO RAIN WRAPPED AROUND BACKSIDE HAS BEEN SLOW TO             
CLEAR. CURRENT EASTWARD PROPAGATION WOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND                 
CLEARING BACK INTO EASTERN KANSAS IN A FEW HOURS...BUT WESTERN                  
MISSOURI MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET. EASTERN AREAS WILL            
STILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING NOT                 
EXPECTED UNTIL OVERNIGHT. DEFORMATION BAND HAS PRODUCED SOME                    
EMBEDDED THUNDER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR                 
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR THIS EVENING AS THIS BAND               
MOVES THROUGH.                                                                  
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT AND             
LAY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. WITH               
THE RAIN TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER THIS RIDGE...EXPECT THAT AREA            
TO SEE DENSER FOG. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH HAVE ALSO HAD ENOUGH                     
RAIN...THAT AS WINDS DROP OFF LATE TONIGHT...FOG WILL ALSO BE                   
POSSIBLE...SO WILL PUT IN A MENTION EVERYWHERE.                                 
NEXT CONCERN FOR RAIN WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND. INITIAL                     
ISENTROPIC SET UP ON SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE AIMED MORE TOWARD                   
CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY WHERE MAIN THETA E AXIS WILL RESIDE. WITH            
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EAST TOWARD MISSOURI             
BY SATURDAY EVENING...WILL PUT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT                
ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA.                                                    
PC                                                                              
THE CURRENT SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO             
UNDERGO SOME SUBTLE CHANGES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN STREAM             
OF THE POLAR JET IS FORECAST TO CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST            
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER             
THE GULF COAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE                 
RELATIVELY FAST MOVING WAVES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM NEXT WEEK WHICH             
LEADS TO A DIFFICULT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE             
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES             
WILL INFLUENCE THE POSITION OF A WEST EAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE            
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. IT COULD BE A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN              
FOR KANSAS AND MISSOURI NEXT WEEK. IF THE FRONT HANGS OVER THE                  
PLEASANT HILL FORECAST AREA, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE                
POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD.                                                    
FOR THE TIME BEING, WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC MANUAL PROGS FOR THE               
POSITION OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD PUT THE PLEASANT HILL FORECAST                
AREA IN A POSSIBLY ACTIVE MCS REGIME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HPC                 
PROGS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS WHICH FORECASTS FAIRLY STRONG                  
SHEAR, MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OVER THE REGION ON                  
SUNDAY. IF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER AS ADVERTISED SEVERE                  
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEYOND THE MONDAY TIME PERIOD, CONFIDENCE              
ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT IS SO LOW THAT WE HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE             
THE FORECAST DRY.                                                               
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
1045 AM CDT THU...                                                              
SLOWED DOWN RAIN CLEARING FROM AREA GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND PEEK AT            
LATEST RUC AND NAM.  NAM A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIP SHIELD              
BUT THINK IT HAS RIGHT IDEA ON TIMING WITH DEFORMATION BAND.  WITH              
CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE A BIT LONGER...ALSO TOOK TEMPS DOWN A BIT.              
LOOKS LIKE A REAL FALL LIKE DAY.                                                
PC                                                                              
644 AM CDT THU...                                                               
QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE            
IMAGERY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS            
LIFTING THE BANDS OF RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY                
EXPECTED. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR             
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS MAKES CHANCE RAIN             
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA FOR              
THIS MORNING. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF             
THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE DRY SLOT...NOW              
PUSHING INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...MIGHT FILL IN AS THE WAVE                    
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.                                                         
CUTTER                                                                          
230 AM...                                                                       
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS                  
MORNING AND WHEN IT WILL END. RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW              
ENTERING WRN KANSAS...MOVING EAST. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ON THE 300-305K SURFACE ALONG QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE SHORTWAVE.                                                             
NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN THIS                
MORNING WITH THE GFS PRETTY CLOSE. HOWEVER...GFS LOOKS TOO BULLISH              
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH                
WITH ITS H8 THETAE AXIS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SWRN MO IS LIKELY              
INTERFERING WITH STG H8 MOISTURE FLUX INTO WCNTRL MO AND SERN KS.               
REGARDLESS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MDT                  
H7-H3 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR AND STLT                 
TRENDS...RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ROUTE 36 OR A STJ TO IRK LINE.               
NRN EDGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY SEEN IN KANSAS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH A                
LITTLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...MODELS                  
SUGGEST THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY NARROW SOME BY EARLY THIS                 
AFTN.                                                                           
PER CURRENT TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS...THE RAIN SHOULD LINGER IN THE               
SERN GRIDS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE XTRM SERN             
GRIDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES TO CLEAR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE SETTLING INTO MO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG LATE             
TNGT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.                                               
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND              
CLOUD COVER. NWRN MO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTN WITH THE                
WCNTRL GRIDS PERHAPS SEEING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTN.               
WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN ONE HALF OF THE CWA            
DUE TO RAIN AND CLD CVR. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR            
FRIDAY AND SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOW TO RETURN.                                  
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1045 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SLOWED DOWN RAIN CLEARING FROM AREA GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND PEEK AT            
LATEST RUC AND NAM.  NAM A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIP SHIELD              
BUT THINK IT HAS RIGHT IDEA ON TIMING WITH DEFORMATION BAND.  WITH              
CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE A BIT LONGER...ALSO TOOK TEMPS DOWN A BIT.              
LOOKS LIKE A REAL FALL LIKE DAY.                                                
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
644 AM CDT THU...                                                               
QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND SATELLITE            
IMAGERY. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING IS            
LIFTING THE BANDS OF RAIN A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY                
EXPECTED. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EVIDENT ON RADAR             
WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN KANSAS MAKES CHANCE RAIN             
POPS IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI LOOK LIKE A GOOD IDEA FOR              
THIS MORNING. KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF             
THE FORECAST AREA AS THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE DRY SLOT...NOW              
PUSHING INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...MIGHT FILL IN AS THE WAVE                    
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.                                                         
CUTTER                                                                          
230 AM...                                                                       
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE HOW FAR NORTH PRECIP WILL MAKE IT THIS                  
MORNING AND WHEN IT WILL END. RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW              
ENTERING WRN KANSAS...MOVING EAST. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MO APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC            
LIFT ON THE 300-305K SURFACE ALONG QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE SHORTWAVE.                                                             
NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NRN EDGE OF THE RAIN THIS                
MORNING WITH THE GFS PRETTY CLOSE. HOWEVER...GFS LOOKS TOO BULLISH              
FOR RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AS IT LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH                
WITH ITS H8 THETAE AXIS. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SWRN MO IS LIKELY              
INTERFERING WITH STG H8 MOISTURE FLUX INTO WCNTRL MO AND SERN KS.               
REGARDLESS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MDT                  
H7-H3 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING. BASED ON RADAR AND STLT                 
TRENDS...RAIN SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF ROUTE 36 OR A STJ TO IRK LINE.               
NRN EDGE OF RAIN CURRENTLY SEEN IN KANSAS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH A                
LITTLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AIR MASS. IN ADDITION...MODELS                  
SUGGEST THAT THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY NARROW SOME BY EARLY THIS                 
AFTN.                                                                           
PER CURRENT TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS...THE RAIN SHOULD LINGER IN THE               
SERN GRIDS MUCH OF THE DAY. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE XTRM SERN             
GRIDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKIES TO CLEAR WITH A HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE SETTLING INTO MO. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG LATE             
TNGT FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.                                               
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND              
CLOUD COVER. NWRN MO WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SUN THIS AFTN WITH THE                
WCNTRL GRIDS PERHAPS SEEING A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTN.               
WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SERN ONE HALF OF THE CWA            
DUE TO RAIN AND CLD CVR. HAVE ALSO TRIMMED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FOR            
FRIDAY AND SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOW TO RETURN.                                  
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
245 PM...                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SPLIT FLOW              
PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. A VIGOROUS                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET             
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FORMED OVER THE HIGH              
TERRAIN OF COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE                  
VICINITY OF THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 60KT JET STREAK AT 500MB.              
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AID THE                
DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE LONG LIVED SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE               
SYSTEMS OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF              
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST            
CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.                                              
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM, I PREFER THE NAM SOLUTION DESPITE              
BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE UPPER FEATURES BY THE GFS OVER THE                 
SOUTHWESTERN US. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING A TYPICAL BIAS WITH            
ITS CONVECTIVE SCHEME, GENERATING PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH INTO              
THE COOL AND DRY AIR. THE NAM IS LESS VIGOROUS WITH THE UPPER                   
TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED                  
STATES, AND SEEMS TO BE MORE REASONABLE THAN THE OVER-ZEALOUS GFS.              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO THE BEST                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE REGION (BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE OVER              
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI). LOW LEVEL DRY AIR OVER                    
NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, SO I HAVE                   
RESTRICTED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO AREAS SOUTH OF PAOLA,                      
HARRISONVILLE AND WARRENSBURG. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION               
ALL TOGETHER NORTH OF MCI TO CHILLICOTHE TO MACON.                              
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REBOUNDING MUCH                    
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI.             
SEDALIA AND BOONVILLE MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT THE LOWER 70S IF                      
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE MID DAY HOURS.                                   
KOCH                                                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS A BIT MORE SIMILAR IN DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AS IT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.               
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SURFACE BY SUNDAY AS THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SLOWER             
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...IN                
MOVING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD. WILL NOT BECOME AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING              
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOO FAST UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE IN                 
AGREEMENT. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW A)MORE TIME FOR LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN AND B)TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL                 
LONGER. HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH THIS IN                
MIND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AS THE COLD             
FRONT MAY STILL BE WEST OF CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHERE FRONT                
WILL BE SO IF IT COMES THROUGH FASTER LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO                 
LOWER TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURES.                                                 
PRIOR TO THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVING MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT               
THE SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL EJECT                   
NORTHEAST AS THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST. CONVECTION COULD AFFECT NORTHERN MO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A              
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                     
SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS NE/IA. GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN            
MODEL HINT AT WARM AIR ADVECTION CONVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH THE GFS            
ALSO FORMING A WARM FRONT OVER MO ON SUNDAY.                                    
MJ                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
255 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF                      
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF SOME 120MILES N OF YESTERDAY'S 18Z AND 00Z            
PROGS IS CURRENTLY HEADING INTO NRN MO.  THIS WAVE WAS ACTUALLY                 
CLOSED OFF ON THE 13Z H50 RUC ANALYSIS(AT H70 AND H85 TOO) IT SPREAD            
PRECIPITATION INTO SRN NEB AND SRN IA...AND IS STILL GENERATING                 
LIGHTNING IN NW MO.                                                             
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS HAD SFC LOW PRES OVER WRN MO WITH            
HIGH PRES STRETCHING FROM WI ACRS IA AND NEB INTO WRN KS.                       
TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO 80 NEAR THE SD BORDER AND WERE HELD TO               
THE 60S UNDER THE CLDCOVER AT FNB.                                              
TONIGHT...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH WILL                
PROGRESS ACROSS MISSOURI AND IOWA...INTO ILLINOIS TONIGHT AND                   
INDIANA BY MORNING.  IN ADDITION..A SFC TROF AND COLD FRONT ARE                 
PUSHING ACRS MN AND N DAKOTA.  PER IR STLT...THERE IS SOME                      
CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FEATURE IN ADDITION TO SOME WEAK WARM AIR                  
ADVECTION.  LEFT SOME SPRINKLE MENTION IN FOR FAR SE ZONE IN SW IA              
AND RICHARDSON CO.  WITHOUT THAT MUCH LIFT INTO OUR FCST AREA...WILL            
CONTINUE WITH CLEARING SE ZONES AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE.                     
GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MAV/FWC...AND ABOUT 5             
DEG WARMER FOR THE MET.  WILL GO WITH THE COOLER GUID WITH THE LIGHT            
WINDS AND FEW CLDS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY             
OF FOG...HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY CONDITIONS OVER LOW LYING             
FIELDS AND RIVER VALLEYS.  FNB AREA HAS SOME MOIST GROUND AS WELL.              
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MO WITH INCREASING S FLOW                
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEB ZONES.  H85 TEMPS ARE AROUND 14-16 DEG                   
C...HOWEVER THE SOUTH WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP BOOST                      
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S.  FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY             
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM APPEAR             
TO BE PROGRESSIVE...AND WILL TAPER OF PRECIP CHANCE WEST SAT                    
AFTERNOON.  CURRENT HIGHS FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND              
THIS STILL APPEARS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH CLOUDCOVER SHOULD HOLD BACK              
BEST MIXING.                                                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR              
PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOWER            
60S AND HIGHS SUN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.                                      
MONDAY THROUGH THU THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF                    
STATES.  MONDAY THE DGEX TRACKS A STRONGER EMBEDDED WAVE ACRS NEB               
INTO IA AND KS OVERNIGHT.  THE AMPLITUDE IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG ON             
THE ECMWF AND GFS.  TENDED TO GO MORE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTION.              
THERE IS AGAIN A SMALL CHC FOR STORMS AS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE                  
GRTLKS IN THE MORNING SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND MOISTURE AND RETURN                
FLOW SET UP OVR THE CNTRL PLNS.  LOWERING HEIGHTS WITH THE LONGWAVE             
TROF AND ANOTHER FRONT IN THE AREA WED.  BOTH THE GFS/DGEX HAVE                 
PRECIP THU...SO DID NOT FIGHT THIS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1047 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXISTS NORTH-SOUTH THRU PA THIS MORNING...FROM                
ABOUT ELZ TO JUST WEST OF STATE COLLEGE DOWN THRU THE LAURELS AND               
SOUTHWARD. IT SEPARATES THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS SURGED UP THE                 
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR THAT HAS AT LEAST                 
TEMPORARILY FILLED IN BEHIND THE WEAK SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING               
YESTERDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN                     
REGIONAL SFC PLOTS AND RADAR MOSAICS AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT              
THE REGION.                                                                     
FOR TODAY...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK               
LL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BOUNDARY AS IT FLOUNDERS AROUND WEST-                 
CENTRAL PA. ENSEMBLE MOS POPS ARE IN THE SLIGHT CHC RANGE FOR MOST              
OF THE REGION AND THAT LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE. UPPER FORCING WILL              
NOT BE TERRIBLY FAVORABLE HOWEVER. GFS/ETA AND RUC ALL AIM A                    
POTENT UPPER JET STREAK AT THE REGION TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE DAY              
SPENT UNDER THE CONVERGENT RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET STREAK.                  
WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO VERIFY THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH A                 
HUGE AREA OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS BLOSSOMING UP IN THE RIGHT REAR                  
ENTRANCE REGION CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THRU THE MIDWEST AND INTO                 
THE TN VALLEY. MODEL PLOTS OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND VECTORS IN THE              
ENTRANCE REGION CONFIRM A POTENT THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION AND               
STRONG DIVERGENCE NEAR THE JET STREAK. CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE SEEN              
IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE LOWER                
BRANCH OF THIS THERMALLY INDIRECT CELL OF THE JET HAS HELPED                    
INDUCE A 20-30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...ANALYZED BY THE MODELS AS                
BEING AS MUCH AS 2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. IN BETWEEN IS PA WITH                  
LITTLE OR NOTHING GOING ON...AS WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER               
CONVERGENCE. IN FACT THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE EVEN EXERTING                  
SOME INFLUENCE DOWN THE MID ATL COAST INTO THE REGION JUST NW OF                
OPHELIA. THE STORM ISN'T MOVING MUCH AT THIS HOUR AND DRY AIR CAN               
BE SEEN IMPINGING ON THE NW AND WESTERN FLANKS OF THE STORM. SO AM              
COMFORTABLE WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR A MIX OF CLOUDS AND                   
SUN...BEING WARM AND HUMID WITH A SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.        
LA CORTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCT SHWRS IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT                 
ENTERING NW PA. ASSOCIATED S/WV WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA                     
TODAY...THUS DYING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL AS            
IT SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWRD ACROSS PA. SREF 850 TEMPS STILL ARND                   
16C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE L-M80S UNDER PTSUNNY             
SKIES.                                                                          
LO PRES OVR SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRACK NE TOWARDS PA                            
TONIGHT...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. STEADIEST RAIN              
LIKELY TO FALL OVR NORTHERN TIER NEAR BAROCLINIC ZONE. FURTHER                  
SOUTH...SHWRS AND POSS THUNDER. SHOWERY WX LIKELY TO LAST THRU                  
SATURDAY AS UPPER LO TRACKS OVR THE REGION.                                     
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
00Z MREF DATA SHOWS RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...SUPPLYING                  
FAIR/SEASONABLE WX SUNDAY. WARMER AIR RETURNS ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE              
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCT SHWRS MON                   
NITE/EARLY TUES. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX LIKELY TO RETURN TOWARDS MIDWEEK            
AS IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT.                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
REGION WILL BE IN THE SQUASH ZONE BETWEEN HURRICANE OPHELIA ALONG               
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE               
OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PD/FRI MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT SFC               
FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN BUT MAINTAIN HIGH SFC MOISTURE VALUES ON            
LIGHT EAST TO SERLY WINDS. THIS IS ALREADY OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY                 
FOGGY TIME OF YEAR...BUT WITH HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EXPECT                
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LCL IFR CONDS...ESP ALONG RIVER             
VALLEY OF EASTERN PA.                                                           
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BE MAINTAINED            
WITH CIGS AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS. CIGS AT               
TIMES WILL DIP INTO MVFR RANGE AND A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO WILL DROP              
VIS AND CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE. EXPECT MVFR TO LCL IFR FOG TO DEVELOP             
AGAIN THUR NIGHT.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
905 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT STILL BACK              
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND LATEST RUC PROGS, WHICH CONTINUE THE                
FRONT'S SLOWING TREND, DON'T EVEN GET THE FRONT TO THE MISSISSIPPI              
RIVER UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINS IN THE MOIST WARM              
SECTOR OVERNIGHT AND VULNERABLE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                                      
00Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWED PWA OF 2.04 INCHES, TOTALS INDEX OF 48 AND A            
LIFTED INDEX OF -3.6. HIGH PWA'S INDICATE THAT ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS            
THAT FORM OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF            
RAIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE               
FRONTAL ZONE, BACK OVER MISSOURI, AND BELIEVE A SIMILAR LINE OF                 
STORMS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE                  
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.                                             
CURRENT ZFP FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO NEED FOR AN UPPDATE              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1050 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISOLATED CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL                  
COUNTIES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS                     
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
AREA. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW               
STARK DIFFERENCES. CORPUS SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER STRONG                 
CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700 MB...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS                 
WITH A PW VALUE OF 2.OO INCHES. THIS SUGGESTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY               
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES IS LIKELY FAIRLY LOW TOPPED. LAKE                     
CHARLES IS SOMEWHAT DRIER WITH A PW OF 1.49 INCHES...BUT                        
LITTLE...IF ANY...CAPPING INVERSION. CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE LOOKS TO              
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATE IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. 46            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LATEST RUC AND GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS               
AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO TOSS IN TEMPOS FOR BOTH HOU AND IAH.                      
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA. 43                                
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 507 CDT THU SEP 15 2005)                            
AS PER RADAR LOOPS THUS FAR OVERNIGHT...PLENTY OF MOISTURE ABOUNDS              
JUST OFFSHORE AND IT ALL LOOKS TO BE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. AS              
SUCH...WILL BE KEEPING WITH CHC POPS FOR THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE FA              
TODAY. THINGS GET A BIT MORE MUDDLED TONIGHT AS PROGS DIVERGE SOME              
WITH REGARD TO POPS. GFS CONSISTENT WITH ITS CONTINUING CALL FOR A              
DECENT SHOT OF PCPN OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI BY WAY OF A DEVELOPING MCS              
OVER NORTH TX THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SSEWD WITH TIME. THIS FEAT-              
URE SHOULD HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHCS FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE FA AS IT              
APPROACHES TOWARD SUNRISE. ETA APPEARS TO BE GOING WITH A LESS AC-              
TIVE/DRIER SOLUTION. ATTM WILL OPT FOR THE GFS TAKE GIVEN IT TRACK              
RECORD SO FAR. THE WEEKEND STILL FCST TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE AS THE              
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS. PCPN CHCS FOR THE LONG TERM NOT LOOKING ALL TOO              
GOOD FOR RAIN EITHER. EXTENDED MODELS STILL GOING WITH A BACK DOOR              
FRONT JUST PAST MIDWEEK...BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WITH A MINIMUM              
OF FUSS AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. REGARDING THE              
PROGS OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEXT WEEK...THESE LATEST RUNS NOW PUSHING              
THIS FEATURE A BIT MORE SOUTH AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THUS              
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD RETURN (WITH THE FIRST *TRULY COLD* COLD              
FRONT REMAINING CONSPICUOUSLY ABSENT...PAST ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL DUE              
DATE). 41                                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
ONSHORE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP TO 15-20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL               
HOIST THE CAUTION FLAGS UNTIL ABOUT NOON WHEN SPEEDS SHOULD                     
DIMINISH. EXPECT ANOTHER DIURNAL INCREASE TONIGHT. GRADIENT SHOULD              
WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO NRN PORTIONS OF            
SE TX SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THRU THE                  
WEEKEND. LOOKING LIKE WE MAY SEE A VISITOR IN THE SRN GULF AND/OR               
BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK (VIA ECMWF/GFS). WAVE MODELS                
SHOW ASSOCIATED SWELLS BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. 47            
AVIATION...                                                                     
INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS TODAY VERSUS YDAY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS               
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S. A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT WARM LAYER BETWEEN             
10-13K FT...BUT STILL THINK SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS A DECENT BET.                   
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION              
ANYTHING IN THE TAFS OTHER THAN CB'S AT THIS POINT. ALSO ANOTHER BIT            
OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TONIGHT...THE GFS MODEL HAS                     
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING A TSTM COMPLEX DEVELOPING ALONG THE                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND MOVING IT                    
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE TX BETWEEN MIDNIGHT-8AM. OTHER MODELS DON'T             
SHOW THIS. THOUGH IT'S AN OUTLIER...WE'RE LEANING TOWARD THE GFS                
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS CHECK OUT THE LATEST             
AND GREATEST DATA...BUT WILL MENTIONS CB'S AS A STARTING POINT. 47              
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE            
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO                   
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                    
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                 
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1008 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
1008 AM                                                                         
PACKAGE ON TRACK FOR TEMPS. POPS ARE PROBLEMATIC. CURRENT ELEVATED              
CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH MIXING            
OUT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. PRELIMINARY 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS                     
MIXED...WITH THE RUC REDEVLOPING CONVECTION ALONG A                             
BRECKENRIDGE...DALLAS...EMORY LINE. 12Z MESOETA HINTS AT A                      
STEPHENVILLE...CLEBURNE...KAUFMAN LINE. ONE SCENARIO GETS SOME MUCH             
NEEDED RAIN ON MY YARD...THE OTHER MISSES ME. AT ANY RATE...I EXPECT            
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MIDDLE AND            
WORK ON SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWER LEVELS LOOK A            
BIT DRIER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH MEANS HIGHER CCL/S AND WITH THE LOW              
LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL BE MORE                          
UNIDIRECTIONAL THAN YESTERDAY. SUPERCELLS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT            
MAIN THREAT WILL BE OUTFLOW TYPE WIND/HAIL.                                     
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
645 AM                                                                          
STRATUS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THAT YESTERDAY MORNING SO WE EXPECT             
SOME TEMPO CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.  ACTUAL COLD            
FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION BUT THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS HAVE                  
SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEAR THE RED RIVER.                
BEST ESTIMATE ON WIND SHIFT TIMING IS CLOSE TO THE NAM SOLUTION                 
(AROUND 22Z AT METROPLEX TAF SITES). HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS            
COULD TURN THE WIND EVEN EARLIER.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL ON                
THE LOW SIDE AS MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOWS AND COLD FRONT TO KEEP A               
PROB30 GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  MAY BE SOME               
POST FRONTAL CEILINGS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP THEM AROUND 3000 FT               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
420 AM CDT                                                                      
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING                
EAST THIS MORNING. SOME ACTIVITY ONGOING IN NW CWA...BULK OF                    
MORNING ACTIVITY WILL BE NW AND THROUGH RED RIVER COUNTIES.                     
SW FLOW DOWNWIND OF APPROACHING TROUGH ACTUALLY HELPING TO PUSH                 
COLD FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA. STORM OUTFLOW AND                        
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH CLOUDCOVER IN NORTHERN ZONES WILL CREATE              
A BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS CWA...WHICH MAY BE FOCUS              
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO BE                 
CONFINED TO NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...THOUGH CIN NOT INSURMOUNTABLE                
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH PASSES EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE TODAY               
AND WILL ALLOW NW FLOW TO FINALLY PUSH TRUE FRONT THROUGH LATE IN               
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. FRONT MAY BE FOCUS FOR LAST                 
ROUND OF CONVECTION...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES FINALLY COME TO AN END              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY...AND WILL REMAIN                
ANCHORED WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL BE WELL                 
ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 25                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  68  91  68 /  30  30  10   0                          
WACO, TX              96  73  93  69 /  20  30  20  10                          
PARIS, TX             88  66  87  67 /  50  30  20   0                          
DENTON, TX            90  66  90  66 /  40  30  10   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          91  66  89  66 /  30  30  10   0                          
DALLAS, TX            93  68  91  69 /  30  30  10   0                          
TERRELL, TX           93  70  90  67 /  30  30  20  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         95  73  92  68 /  30  30  20  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            96  73  93  70 /  20  30  30  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
79/25                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
400 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WILL BE                
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED             
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS                 
MORNING THERE IS A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WITH A COLD                 
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THERE IS A WARM FRONT                
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INDIANA...TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. THIS             
KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA IN WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES               
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW              
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE LIFTED INDEX VALUES ON THE            
NAM ARE SHOWING VALUES OF MINUS FOUR. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES                      
THROUGH...THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXPECT             
PATCHY FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION             
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME LOW CLOUDS TO HANG ON UNTIL                 
SUNSET ON SATURDAY AS THE BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. THE MOS TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD TODAY AND             
JUST TOOK A BLEND OF THE MOS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY              
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN             
DURING THE HOUR.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
307 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE ENE                 
ACROSS OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE             
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER MO...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT                   
EXTENDING NE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THEN CURVING BACK SOUTHEASTWARD               
INTO SOUTHERN WV. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST THE SURFACE LOW            
TRACKS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GFS HAVING IT IN SOUTHWEST               
OHIO BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND THE NAM MOVING PRIMARY LOW INTO SW NY                
STATE AT THE SAME TIME. PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF ONGOING                      
PRECIPITATION OVER IL...WRN KY AND TN. THE GFS POINTS TOWARDS THE               
SPLITTING OF THE PRECIPITATION AREA THAT IS BEING OBSERVED WITH                 
PRIMARY CONVECTION IN TN AND RAIN N OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN IL. THE              
UPPER JET PLACES THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER IN AND OHIO                     
TONIGHT...AND BOTH GFS AND NAM POINT TOWARDS THIS. DESPITE THIS THE             
NAM GENERATES STRONGER UVV OVER ERN KY TONIGHT THAN THE GFS. AS SUCH            
THE MET MOS POPS LOOKS TOO HIGH TONIGHT. PREFER GFS OVERALL HANDLING            
OF SITUATION AND THUS LEAN TOWARDS LOWER MAV MOS POPS. ON FRIDAY                
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAINS NORTH AND SOUTH OF ERN KY BASED ON               
THE PREFERRED GFS...BUT DESPITE THIS THE MAV MOS POPS FOR FRIDAY IS             
HIGHER THAN TONIGHT. THIS DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE BASED ON THE                 
MODEL ITSELF...AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.            
BUT STILL TO BE WATCHED ON FRIDAY IS THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE               
MAKING ITS WAY INTO AREA AS SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE                        
NORTHEAST...SO THUNDERSTORMS STILL A POSSIBILITY IF ENOUGH                      
INSTABILITY. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND                  
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY HOWEVER. WITH GFS PREFERRED MODEL HAVE                
LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE OF             
PERIODS OF FORECAST AS WELL.                                                    
EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                           
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LARGE BUBBLE HIGH WHICH WILL                
GROW OVER TX THRU THE PERIOD. THE HIGH WILL BE BOOKENDED BY A TROUGH            
IN THE MEANS OVER THE NE AND A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH WILL HANG BACK OVER            
CA. THIS LOW WILL SPIT OUT PIECES OF ENERGY WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG               
THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY WILL WANDER AROUND NEARBY...AND ACTIVATE WITH THE ARRIVAL              
OF THESE SHORTWAVES. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WAVES IS ALWAYS                
TRICKY IN THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND MODELS ARE VARYING                  
AMONGST EACH OTHER AND WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...THEREFORE                     
CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD IS NOT REAL HIGH.                 
MODELS ARE IN A GENERAL CONSENSUS THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NE OVER KY AS            
WE GET LATE IN THE WEEK.                                                        
HAVE LEFT SUN AND SUN NIGHT DRY AS A SURFACE HIGH SITS JUST OFF TO              
THE NE. FRONT IS PROGGED BY GFS AND ECMWF TO DROP OVER THE AREA AS              
THE HIGH IS SHOVED EWARD ON MON AND THE FRONT LINGERS THRU AT LEAST             
WED NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING S OF THE AREA OR JUST DISSIPATING. FLOW                
ALOFT IS OUT OF THE NW THRU THE PERIOD SO THE GULF IS CLOSED FOR                
BUSINESS AND PCPN CHANCES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY LOW            
SO KEPT POPS ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT MON THRU WED NIGHT. DRIED THINGS            
OUT ON THU AS RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD.                                         
TEMPS WERE HELD FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BUT DID RAISE A LITTLE FOR             
THE DAYTIME HIGHS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY WITH EXPECTED DRY GROUND                  
CONDITIONS HELPING US GAIN SOME POINTS OVER MOS. LOWS WERE                      
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH SOME TWEAKING TO CAPTURE A RIDGE VALLEY                 
SPLIT ON SUN NIGHT AND ON WED NIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.                    
1006 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005                                                     
AT 12Z STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NR PAH TO SDF TO HTS THEN ON            
ACROSS CENTRAL WV. SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST MO...WITH            
CONVECTION NOW INTO WESTERN KY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS TOPS WARMING WEST            
KY AND COLDER TOPS AND BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH INTO            
W TN. BEST SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF LOW IN                 
SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS IDEA OF KEEPING DRY                
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY HERE. WE CURRENTLY HAVE 20 POPS AND WILL               
LIKELY LEAVE THAT IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS             
TO HOURLY GRIDDED TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BUT              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. WILL ALSO UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE                
MORNING FOG WORDING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JACOBSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
517 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
...OPHELIA WATCHES CONTD WITH 5AM PACKAGE AND IF WE GO TO A                     
WARNING IT WILL BE WITH THE 11AM PKG...                                         
PRODUCTS WILL POST LATER THAN USUAL PENDING RECEIPT OF ALL THE 09Z              
TPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT SLIGHT DELAYS.                                             
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
PNSBOX FOR RFALL TOTALS WILL GO THRU ANOTHER ITERATION AROUND 8AM               
FRIDAY FOR WDSPRD 2-4" TOTALS I95 CORRIDOR SEWD YDY.                            
HOW FRIDAY-SAT UNFOLD IS STILL DEBATABLE BUT THIS FCSTR IS EXPECTING            
ADDITIONAL LARGE AMTS IN PARTS OF SNE BY 00Z SUN.                               
AS YOU CAN FROM RADAR.. THE REINJECTION CONNECTION TO OPHELIA SEEMS             
TO HAVE STARTED WITH GRADU INCREASE IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM HEAVY             
AS OF 0830Z!  I LIKE THE 06Z RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM IDEA.                       
THEN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING MID LVL DEF ZONE RW+ BAND NR I95              
AND OPEHLIA RW+ ALONG AND JUST E OF THE CENTER.                                 
THIS DROUGHT DENTING RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE               
TOTAL AMTS IN PARTS OF SE NEW ENGLAND FM 12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN OF OVER           
5"...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 7". GIVE US TIME TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ON THE             
ABV LATER THIS SHIFT.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
OPHELIA RELATED.                                                                
WATCHES CONTD.  11AM WILL THE DECISION TIME FOR WARNING IF WE GO THAT           
ROUTE FOR ACK REGION. ALL STMTS ETC FOLLOW ARD 5AM.                             
WE HAVE SEEN 00Z/16 RGEM/GFS AND THINKING A MERGE ALONG THOSE LINES             
AS WELL AS 06Z RUC.  NEW 06Z NAM BEING VIEWED AS WE WRITE THIS. IT              
IS MORE ACCURATELY DEFINED AND HERE AT KBOX LIKE THE TREND OF MORE              
DEFINITION.                                                                     
JUST COLLAB WITH TPC AND WILL FINAL ARD 4AM WITH PRODUCTS POSTING               
AROUND 5AM.  TRACK A FEW MILES E. MAYBE SHRINK WIND A BIT ON NW                 
SIDE...NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH DIFF IN THIS FCST PKG.  WE SAW THE               
STILL ON COURSE GFDL.                                                           
HEAVY SURF ADVY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR OUR S COAST.  5 FT SWELLS FM           
OPHELIA ARE PROGRESSING NWD INTO OUR CW.                                        
NEW FFG NOT UPDATED TIL 14Z/16 WITH TODAYS HEAVY RAINS SO OLD                   
GUIDANCE FM 14Z/15 IS NOT IDEAL TO USE.  STILL ATTM HOLDING ON FFA              
BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE IN LATE MORNING PKG.                                      
DENSE FOG ADVY WAS CONSIDERED BUT WHILE THICK FOG OCCURRING..THINK WE           
WILL WORD IN THE FCST AND MINIMIZE THE USE OF THIS HEADLINE..ESP WITH           
OUR OTHER CONCERNS.                                                             
OTRW COASTAL FLOOD...TSWRNG ALL UNDER CONSIDERATION THIS SHIFT.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
...RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...                       
OPHELIA DEPARTS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A                 
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. TRAILING SHORT WAVE                
CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS IN                
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT THE SHORT WAVE DAMPENS OUT WITH TIME AS IT               
TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS DECIDED TO LOWER POPS SUNDAY. WEAK              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WITH DRYING                
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE              
MOISTURE AND MOMENTUM TO WORK WITH. DECIDED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT              
CHANCE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEXT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS               
FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TIME                    
FRAME.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CHAOTIC AVIATION CONDITIONS ETM WITH DENSE FOG IN PLACES.                       
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE OPHELIA ARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH                   
COASTAL WATERS OF MA AND RI...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL            
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS                  
SEAS.                                                                           
SEAS WILL RISE SHARPLY AND EXTREMELY STEEP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST             
COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING. THE BIG 17 FT WH GROUP WILL PROB                    
ACCOMPANY OR TRAIL OPHELIA BY A COUPLE OF HRS ALONG AND E OF THE                
TRACK.                                                                          
FOLLOWED THE NAH (HURRICANE VERSION OF WNA) CLOSELY...WHICH INCREASED           
SEAS TO 16-17 FT JUST SE OF NANTUCKET SAT.                                      
GRADU DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN.                                               
.CLIMO...                                                                       
RER FOR PVD SENT...2.66 INCHES FOR 9/15/05 BEATS DAILY RECORD OF                
1.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 9/15/1999.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAZ019>024 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
  ...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR MAZ020-022>024 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.              
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR RIZ005-007 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
  ...HIGH SURF WARNING FOR RIZ006>008 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT                  
SATURDAY                                                                        
     TO 4 PM SATURDAY.                                                          
  ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ231>236-254-255 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY.           
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ235-237-250-254-            
     255 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                              
.LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
433 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
...OPHELIA WATCHES CONTD WITH 5AM PACKAGE AND IF WE GO TO A                     
WARNING TI WILL BE WITH THE 11AM PKG...                                         
PRODUCTS WILL POST LATER THAN USUAL PENDING RECEIPT OF ALL THE 09Z              
TPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT SLIGHT DELAYS.                                             
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
PNSBOX FOR RFALL TOTALS WILL GO THRU ANOTHER ITERATION AROUND 8AM               
FRIDAY FOR WDSPRD 2-4" TOTALS I95 CORRIDOR SEWD YDY.                            
HOW FRIDAY-SAT UNFOLD IS STILL DEBATEABLE BUT THIS FCSTR IS EXPECTING           
ADDITIONAL LARGE AMTS IN PARTS OF SNE BY 00Z SUN.                               
AS YOU CAN FDROM RADAR.. THE REINJECTION CONNECTION TO OPHELIA SEEMS            
TO HAVE STARTED WITH GRADU INCREASE IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM HEAVY             
AS OF 0830Z!  I LIKE THE 06Z RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM IDEA.                       
THEN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING MID LVL DEF ZONE RW+ BAND NR I95              
AND OPEHLIA RW+ ALONG AND JUST E OF THE CENTER.                                 
THIS DROUGHT DENTING RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE               
TOTAL AMTS IN PARTS OF SE NEW ENGLAND FM 12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN OF OVER           
5"...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 7". GIVE US TIME TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ON THE             
ABV LATER THIS SHIFT.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
OPHELIA RELATED.                                                                
WATCHES CONTD.  11AM WILL THE DECISON TIME FOR WARNING IF WE GO THAT            
ROUTE FOR ACK REGION. ALL STMTS ETC FOLLOW ARD 5AM.                             
WE'VE SEEN 00Z/16 RGEM/GFS AND THINKING A MERGE ALONG THOSE LINES AS            
WELL AS 06Z RUC.  NEW 06Z NAM BEING VIEWED AS WE WRITE THIS. IT IS              
MORE ACCURATELY DEFINED AND HERE AT KBOX LIKE THE TREND OF MORE                 
DEFINITION.                                                                     
JUST COLLALB WITH TPC AND WILL FINAL ARD 4AM WITH PRODUCTS POSTING              
AROUND 5AM.  TRACK A FEW MILES E. MAYBE SHRINK WIND A BIT ON NW                 
SIDE...NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH DIFF IN THIS FCST PKG.  WE SAW THE               
STILL ON COURSE GFDL.                                                           
HEAVY SURF ADVY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR OUR S COAST.  5 FT SWELLS FM           
OPHELIA ARE PROGRESSING NWD INTO OUR CW.                                        
NEW FFG NOT UPDATED TIL 14Z/16 WITH TODAYS HEAVY RAINS SO OLD                   
GUIDANCE FM 14Z/15 IS NOT IDEAL TO USE.  STILL ATTM HOLDING ON FFA              
BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE IN LATE MORNING PKG.                                      
DENSE FOG ADVY WAS CONSIDERED BUT WHILE THICK FOG OCCURING..THINK WE            
WILL WORD IN THE FCST AND MINIMIZE THE USE OF THIS HEADLINE..ESP WITH           
OUR OTHER CONCERNS.                                                             
OTRW COASTAL FLOOD...TSWRNG ALL UNDER CONSIDERATION THIS SHIFT.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
...RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...                       
OPHELIA DEPARTS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A                 
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. TRAILING SHORT WAVE                
CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS DOESNT APPEAR QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS IN                  
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT THE SHORT WAVE DAMPENS OUT WITH TIME AS IT               
TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS DECIDED TO LOWER POPS SUNDAY. WEAK              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WITH DRYING                
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE              
MOISTURE AND MOMENTUM TO WORK WITH. DECIDED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT              
CHANCE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEXT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS               
FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TIME                    
FRAME.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CHAOTIC AVIATION CONDITIONS ETM WITH DENSE FOG IN PLACES.                       
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE OPHELIA SARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH                  
COASTAL WATERS OF MA AND RI...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL            
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS                  
SEAS.                                                                           
SEAS WILL RISE SHARPLY AND EXTREMELY STEEP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST             
COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING. THE BIG 17 FT WH GROUP WILL PROB                    
ACCOMPANY OR TRAIL OPHELIA BY A COUPLE OF HRS ALONG AND E OF THE                
TRACK.                                                                          
FOLLOWED THE NAH (HURRICANE VERSION OF WNA) CLOSELY...WHICH INCREASED           
SEAS TO 16-17 FT JUST SE OF NANTUCKET SAT.                                      
GRADU DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN.                                               
.CLIMO...                                                                       
RER FOR PVD SENT...2.66 INCHES FOR 9/15/05 BEATS DAILY RECORD OF                
1.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 9/15/1999.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAZ019>024 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR RIZ005-007 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT                  
SATURDAY      TO 6 PM SATURDAY.                                                 
  ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ231>236-254-255 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.            
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ235-237-254-255             
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                              
.LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
413 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
...OPHELIA IS THE FOCUS OF THIS SHIFT...                                        
PRODUCTS WILL POST LATER THAN USUAL PENDING RECEIPT OF ALL THE 09Z              
TPC GUIDANCE. EXPECT SLIGHT DELAYS.                                             
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
PNSBOX FOR RFALL TOTALS WILL GO THRU ANOTHER ITERATION AROUND 8AM               
FRIDAY FOR WDSPRD 2-4" TOTALS I95 CORRIDOR SEWD YDY.                            
HOW FRIDAY-SAT UNFOLD IS STILL DEBATEABLE BUT THIS FCSTR IS EXPECTING           
ADDITIONAL LARGE AMTS IN PARTS OF SNE BY 00Z SUN.                               
AS YOU CAN FDROM RADAR.. THE REINJECTION CONNECTION TO OPHELIA                  
SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED WITH GRADU INCREASE IN SHOWERS...SOME OF                  
THEM HEAVY AS OF 0730Z!  I LIKE THE 06Z RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM IDEA.            
THEN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING MID LVL DEF ZONE RW+ BAND NR I95              
AND OPEHLIA RW+ ALONG AND JUST E OF THE CENTER.                                 
THIS DROUGHT DENTING RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE               
TOTAL AMTS IN PARTS OF SE NEW ENGLAND FM 12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN OF OVER           
5"...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 7". GIVE US TIME TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ON THE             
ABV LATER THIS SHIFT.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
OPHELIA RELATED.  WE'VE SEEN 00Z/16 RGEM/GFS AND THINKING A MERGE               
ALONG THOSE LINES AS WELL AS 06Z RUC.  NEW 06Z NAM BEING VIEWED AS              
WE WRITE THIS. IT IS MORE ACCURATELY DEFINED AND HERE AT KBOX LIKE              
THE TREND OF MORE DEFINITION.                                                   
JUST COLLALB WITH TPC AND WILL FINAL ARD 4AM WITH PRODUCTS POSTING              
AROUND 5AM.  TRACK A FEW MILES E. MAYBE SHRINK WIND A BIT ON NW                 
SIDE...NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE MUCH DIFF IN THIS FCST PKG.  WE SAW THE               
STILL ON COURSE GFDL.                                                           
HEAVY SURF ADVY WILL BE ISSUED TODAY FOR OUR S COAST.  5 FT SWELLS FM           
OPHELIA ARE PROGRESSING NWD INTO OUR CW.                                        
NEW FFG NOT UPDATED TIL 14Z/16 WITH TODAYS HEAVY RAINS SO OLD                   
GUIDANCE FM 14Z/15 IS NOT IDEAL TO USE.  STILL ATTM HOLDING ON FFA              
BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE IN LATE MORNING PKG.                                      
DENSE FOG ADVY WAS CONSIDERED BUT WHILE THICK FOG OCCURING..THINK WE            
WILL WORD IN THE FCST AND MINIMIZE THE USE OF THIS HEADLINE..ESP WITH           
OUR OTHER CONCERNS.                                                             
OTRW COASTAL FLOOD...TSWRNG ALL UNDER CONSIDERATION THIS SHIFT.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
...RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...                       
OPHELIA DEPARTS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A                 
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. TRAILING SHORT WAVE                
CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS DOESNT APPEAR QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS IN                  
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT THE SHORT WAVE DAMPENS OUT WITH TIME AS IT               
TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS DECIDED TO LOWER POPS SUNDAY. WEAK              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WITH DRYING                
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE              
MOISTURE AND MOMENTUM TO WORK WITH. DECIDED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT              
CHANCE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEXT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS               
FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TIME                    
FRAME.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CHAOTIC AVIATION CONDITIONS ETM WITH DENSE FOG IN PLACES.                       
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE OPHELIA SARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH                  
COASTAL WATERS OF MA AND RI...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL            
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS                  
SEAS.                                                                           
SEAS WILL RISE SHARPLY AND EXTREMELY STEEP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST             
COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING. THE BIG 17 FT WH GROUP WILL PROB                    
ACCOMPANY OR TRAIL OPHELIA BY A COUPLE OF HRS ALONG AND E OF THE                
TRACK.                                                                          
FOLLOWED THE NAH (HURRICANE VERSION OF WNA) CLOSELY...WHICH INCREASED           
SEAS TO 16-17 FT JUST SE OF NANTUCKET SAT.                                      
GRADU DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN.                                               
.CLIMO...                                                                       
RER FOR PVD SENT...2.66 INCHES FOR 9/15/05 BEATS DAILY RECORD OF                
1.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 9/15/1999.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAZ019>024 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR RIZ005-007 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                    
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-237-250 FROM MIDNIGHT                  
SATURDAY      TO 6 PM SATURDAY.                                                 
  ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ANZ231>236-254-255 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.            
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ235-237-254-255             
     UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                              
.LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SFC MAP...SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS HIGH            
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NRN WI...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO               
SFC LOWS. ONE OF WHICH IS TO OUR NW...IN WESTERN ONTARIO WHERE A                
WEAK COOL FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN ND. THE OTHER               
SYSTEM WAS IN THE SRN IL VICINITY WITH PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVING                  
THROUGH NE IL/CHICAGO VICINITY. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS MUCH MORE                 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS A THICK DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WAS               
INVADING ALL OF NRN LOWER. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS STILL WELL SOUTH             
OF THE CWA...IN THE MKG...GRR...FNT AND DTW AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS AND            
SPRINKLES WERE IMPOSING UPON THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA...BUT CEILINGS             
REMAINED 10KFT OR HIGHER.                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS...PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND EXTENT OF CLOUDY SKIES             
AND THEIR EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS. AFTERWARDS...TIMING THE CLEARING FOR            
TONIGHT...THEN TRYING TO DISCERN HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONTAL                
ZONE WILL BEHAVE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                    
TODAY...GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL HANDLING THE SITUATION MOST               
CORRECTLY...AS USUAL. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM             
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE THE DEEP NE FLOW KEEPS THE SUB              
10KFT LAYER RELATIVELY DRY. DO NOT FORESEE CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW              
8KFT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ARENAC/GLADWIN COUNTIES.              
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE             
SRN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATE H8-H5 -DIVQ AND IN LINE WITH               
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO PASS NORTH OF M-32. WILL             
CARRY SPRINKLES FOR THE M-32 CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS              
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL SHUNT EASTWARD WITH                 
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES DECREASE             
IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NW                
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY...ONLY SEEING              
SOME HIGH CLOUD IN THE MORNING THEN SOME AFTERNOON CU. WILL HAVE                
LIGHT LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE               
LESS INFLUENCED BY NE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH.                                    
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OUT              
OF THE CWA...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR REMNANT LIGHT                       
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES WILL             
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH RE-PLANTS ITSELF ACROSS THE CWA.            
SHOULD BE A NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...AND POSSIBLY MORE SO FOR THOSE              
AREAS THAT MAY MEASURE A FEW HUNDREDTHS FROM THE SHOWERS. WILL LET              
DAY CREW ASSESS FOG POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SFC TD'S HANGING IN THE                
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEARING OCCURRING                      
OVERNIGHT...DO EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...MAINLY OVER INLAND                  
LAKES. LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TUMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MANY                
INLAND AREAS.                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH SFC HIGH SLOWLY                
SLIDING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOW                 
TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S (LOWEST AREAS) TO THE UPPER 40S. MAYBE SOME                
HIGH CLOUD TRAVERSING THE SKY...BUT PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT FOR               
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
SUNDAY ONWARD...NO MAJOR CHANGES...MODELS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO               
DOWNPLAY THE FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND             
ARE RATHER PLAYING UP A POSSIBLE NEW WAVE RIDING THIS BOUNDARY                  
MONDAY. HAVER NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES AND WILL LET DAY CREW ASSESS            
ANY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY. I DID LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER               
WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY                 
LOOKS WEAK.   SMD                                                               
 AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS                                
NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI (AS OF MID AFTERNOON) WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK             
NORTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO/FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN            
LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE FARTHEST NORTH BUT             
THE CONTINUED PREFERENCE IS FOR THE LESS MOIST NAM. MODEL SOUNDINGS             
DO SHOW MOISTENING OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES            
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOWER LEVELS APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY FOR                   
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER               
BUT NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME (SUPPOSE SPRINKLES ARE                      
POSSIBLE). ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SOME CU POTENTIAL AND WITH SOME HIGH            
CLOUDS AROUND...PARTLY SUNNY SHOULD WORK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE              
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE                
FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ANOTHER                 
SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT IS IN ORDER (40S TO AROUND 50).                         
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY BUILD WITH              
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY                 
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO BETWEEN              
PLUS 12 AND 14C...HIGHS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A PROBLEM TOPPING               
OUT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING               
NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT SO LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE                 
EXPECTED.                                                                       
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...EXTENDED MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AT                
SOME POINT SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY (THE MOST LIKELY TIME APPEARS TO              
BE MONDAY MORNING). A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER COULD               
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS MEAN 850-700 MB RH INCREASES TO BETWEEN 75             
AND 85 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER             
AND NORTHWEST LOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS ALL ZONES SUNDAY                
NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES ON MONDAY SO CONTINUE WITH            
CURRENT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER (MEANWHILE...THE               
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR EASTERN UPPER SO NO POPS UP THERE). HIGHS ON                 
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 70S THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION             
ON MONDAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MIDDLE 60S FAR NORTH BUT STILL              
MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST (LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE).                                   
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT            
TO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH MAIN SYSTEMS TENDING TO TRACK BY              
TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT              
IS SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY OR SO BUT MOISTURE FIELDS               
LOOK MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM.                         
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS            
OF WELL INTO THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.                                          
SULLIVAN                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
222 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM WISCONSIN TO                     
SOUTHERN KANSAS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY                 
MORNING. NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ARE IN RETURN FLOW NOW...                 
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. LEE TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE FRONT.                    
SKIES ARE CLEAR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION                    
NOTED ON H7 CHARTS AND PROFILERS...RESULTING IN CLOUDS MOVING                   
EAST OVER FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.                       
AIRMASS REMAINS DRY AND PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING                      
FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                
MODEL INGEST PROBLEMS HERE TONIGHT HAVE BEEN COMPOUNDED BY                      
THE NAM MODEL OUT TO LUNCH ON STABILITY FIELDS AFTER 24 HOURS.                  
HAVE TRIED TO MAKE SOME HASH WITH A BLEND OF THE NAM AND                        
GFS AND FOCUSING IN ISENTROPIC AND WINDS FIELDS.                                
THE FORECAST HAS PLENTY OF INTRIGUE AT VARIOUS TIMES OVER THE                   
NEXT 72 HOURS. INITIALLY TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES                  
AND SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE. BREEZY CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY                
NORTHWEST CWFA BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A PRETTY DECENT SOUTH               
BREEZE BY AFTERNOON.                                                            
HAVE CONTINUED...AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED...PRECIPITATION CHANCES                 
TONIGHT THROUGH MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION...                   
SHORT WAVE..WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN...ALL SUGGEST                    
AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN. COULD HAVE TROUBLE AMOUNTING TO                  
MEASURABLE RAIN MANY AREAS...BUT STILL EXPECTED SOME SHOWERS                    
AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                       
AFTER THE MORNING CLOUDS EXIT THE EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING...                 
EXPECT A SUNNY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE RUC AND                   
ETA PUSH A DRY SURGE ACROSS HALF THE CWFA. THE GFS HOLDS IT BACK.               
NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL RETURN THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND                
AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM. HOWEVER...WAKE OF THE STRONG                      
SHORT WAVE EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                 
DRYLINE HAVE LED ME TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATE SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME. ANOTHER SMALL OVERNIGHT EVENT                     
SETS UP OVER KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE ADDED SMALL POPS                    
TO SOUTHEAST ZONES AS THIS MAY CLIP THAT REGION.                                
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE HUMID...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND                 
WEAK FRONT. MOISTURE INCREASES QUITE DRAMATICALLY AS THE FRONT                  
STALLS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST                     
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY                     
NIGHT. ETA IS OVERDONE DO TO INSTABILITY ERRORS...BUT GFS                       
HAS GOOD 315K LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL                     
JET KICKS IN FOR LIFT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                
NO CHANGES TO DAYS 3 THROUGH 7.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE                                                                       
KS...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NOAA/NWS/MORITZ                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
415 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRYING TO RESOLVE TIMING AND                  
STRENGTH OF NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION            
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER CWA EARLY THIS                  
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FIRST OF THESE WEAK WAVES...WHICH SHOULD EXIT            
AREA BY MID MORNING LEAVING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE MOST AREAS                
TODAY. OTHER CONCERN FOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS AREA OF STRATUS AND              
DENSE FOG EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN IOWA. CURRENT RATE OF             
EXPANSION WOULD PUT THIS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA               
BEFORE SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS ON BOTH NAM AND RUC SHIFT             
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THAT TIME AS WELL...WHICH COULD PUSH BULK              
OF FOG EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL MENTION SOME AREAS OF FOG IN THE KSLB             
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BECOME MUCH MORE              
WIDESPREAD THAN THAT IN OUR FORECAST AREA.                                      
NEXT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING...IS FORECAST TO                
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE LATE                
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DESPITE LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE...HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND                
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE WEAK WAVES THE PAST                
COUPLE OF EVENINGS...AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY THIS COULD NOT               
HAPPEN AGAIN THIS EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER SPOTTY               
HOWEVER...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST 20-30 PCT POPS ACROSS THE                  
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...SPREADING EAST WITH THE WAVE OVERNIGHT.              
BEST LIFT WITH WAVE ACTUALLY SLIDES JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...AND                 
SUPPORT FROM INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO FOCUS              
BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTH...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE RANGE POPS NORTH             
OF I-90...WITH JUST ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF               
THE INTERSTATE.                                                                 
MUCH STRONGER WAVE COMING IN CLOSELY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...               
CROSSING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. GFS AND NAM DIFFER              
IN MAINTAINING THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...               
WITH THE GFS FLATTENING IT OUT QUITE A BIT. THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD             
AGREEMENT IN ITS TIMING THOUGH...WITH BOTH MODELS BRINGING IT INTO              
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY MORNING...              
CONTINUING ACROSS OUR CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THEN EXITING THE                
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE ABLE TO HAVE A DECENT               
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS              
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS            
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...WITH WAVE ALREADY                
EXPECTED TO BE INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE SHIFTED            
HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EVENING PERIOD INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...                 
LOWERING MOST AREAS TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY EVENING AS              
THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. SHEAR INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT            
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY AS WELL...AND AS LONG AS WE CAN GET             
DECENT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THEN...HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME            
SEVERE STORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD                
KEEP MOST AREAS DRY DURING THE DAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW NEXT WAVE             
COMING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH LATEST NAM RUNS DELAY            
THIS UNTIL MONDAY. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES...WILL NOT MAKE ANY                  
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OR BEYOND AT             
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SENDING ANOTHER UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ONCE AGAIN. AREA OF CONVECTION             
IN MS/AL IS PROGGED TO DISSIPATE BY THE RUC...BUT THE MESOETA HOLDS             
IT TOGETHER A LITTLE BETTER. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PARAMETERS LEAD             
ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT THROUGH TO THE                   
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING SOUTH OF THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND                      
CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN GEORGIA WILL ALLOW CAPES AND LI'S              
TO EASILY BE REALIZED...FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AND DOWN TO -3 TO -4C               
RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...BECAUSE OF THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...A               
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SET UP...ADDING AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL            
TRIGGERING MECHANISM AS THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO HEAT. DEWPOINTS IN             
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA ARE             
EVIDENCE OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE...AND THERE IS A LARGE AREA OF                   
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALOFT OF LESS THAN 5 DEGREES. UPPER JETS WILL              
LINE UP THIS AFTERNOON TO PUT THE GENERAL AREA OF THE SOUTHEASTERN              
UNITED STATES IN BOTH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE EXITING JET              
AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE ENTERING JET...VERY FAVORABLE FOR               
LIFT...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT MULTIPLE LEVELS ALOFT WILL ALSO                  
CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT WITH DIFFERENTIAL POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION              
MAXIMIZED. THUS...AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY            
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCES WELL WARRANTED IN SOUTHERN ZONES.             
ISOLATED SEVERE IS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AS THE SITUATION            
EVOLVES AND FURTHER MONITORING WILL BE NECESSARY INTO THE AFTERNOON             
HOURS.                                                                          
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD                 
COVER...AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER AGAIN AS WELL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TDP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1030 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
GOOD SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF OPHELIA AND VERY DRY ABOVE H8. A WEAK                
TROUGH LIES W OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO NOT ENIRELY IMPOSSIBLE              
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. SHOULD ALSO SEE A LATE DAY              
RESULTANT DEVELOP. THEREFORE WILL NOT REMOVE MENTION OF A SHOWER OR             
THUNDERSTORM FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                           
TEMPS SHOULD REACH 90 OR HIGHER JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN WESTERLY               
FLOW. EXCEPTION MAY BE BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES WHERE A LATE DAY SW             
BREEZE MAY KEEP THEM JUST SHY OF 90 DEG.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH            
SEAS AT THE NOAA BUOYS OF 3.3 FT. 06Z ETA AND 09Z RUC SHOWING WINDS             
BACKING BY LATE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES PLANNED ON             
THE UPDATE ARE TO SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OUTSIDE SOME 3 TO 5 MILE HAZE THIS MORNING...EXPECT TO SEE VFR                  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECT W-NW WINDS OF 5 TO              
10 KT THIS MORNING TO BECOME MORE W-SW DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS EVEN            
SOUTHERLY AT CRE AND MYR.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RJD                                                                
AVIATION...RAN                                                                  
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1106 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND                      
MAX TEMPS.  ADJUSTED THE TEMPS DOWN AS COOL FRONT AND CLOUD COVER               
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE              
OVERCAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS                          
PUSHED SOUTH OF CWA. HOWEVER...A VERY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION               
WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ANOTHER CATEGORY.            
STAY TUNED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KJCT TO JUST SOUTH OF                  
KSOA AND KP07. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WIDE SPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH              
AREAS OF IFR GIGS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10                   
KNOTS. LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FROM ABOUT 12 SOUTH OF  
KSWW TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF KABI TO NEAR KSEP. AS FOR THE TWO                      
TERMINALS WITH THIS FORECAST...WILL NEED TO START OFF MENTIONING                
SOME SHRA IN THE KABI TAF AS IT IS ALREADY IN THE VICINITY AND WILL             
CONTINUE THE SHRA THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO WASH              
OUT. WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN CONDITIONS              
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS MID SEPTEMBER SUN SHOULD ERODE THE                   
CLOUDS. WINDS TO STAY 020 TO 050 LESS THAN 10 KNTS. THROUGH MUCH                
OF THE DAY.                                                                     
HAVE BEEN IN LIMBO AS TO WHETHER TO MENTION SOME SHRA AT THE KSJT               
TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED TIME TO DEVELOP AND SEE NOTHING                
IN THE VCNTY AT THIS TIME WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE OUT AT THIS                   
POINT IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP...BEST TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN                  
12Z-14Z. IFR CIGS AT KSJT ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO MVFR BY                
16Z AND THEN CIG SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK BY 19Z AS FRONTAL                   
SURFACE BEGINS TO ERODE. WINDS PRETTY MUCH 040-060 AROUND 10 KNTS               
OR LESS.                                                                        
27/BRAZZELL                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF OZONA...JUNCTION TO               
NEAR WACO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10                  
MPH IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE STILL PRETTY HIGH IN         
WC TEXAS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WITH               
DEW POINTS IN LOWER 60 WAS MOVING INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON                 
COUNTIES. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABILENE               
TO THE FT WORTH/DALLAS METROPLEX. WHILE...KSJT RADAR VAD SHOWED ONLY ONE        
GATE OF SOUTH WINDS OF 15 KTS AT 5000 MSL...LOW AND MID LEVEL                   
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...INDICATING MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED                    
MID/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST                   
UNITED STATES.                                                                  
QUESTION OF POPS FOR TODAY...TO PUT IN OR NOT. NEGATIVES ARE THE INCREASING     
UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.                          
POSITIVES ARE...WE ARE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS                
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY. THE ETA MODEL IS A BIT               
MORE AGRESSIVE AS POPS ARE CONCERNED BUT GFS DOES DEPICT SOME                   
PRECIP IN THE REGION (MAINLY MORNING). WE ALSO HAVE SOME LEFT OVER              
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND APPARENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. WILL GIVE A 20 PERCENT FROM I-20                   
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND WEAKER                      
INSTABILITY...LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSTMS CHANCES TONIGHT.                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN                     
STRENGTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS DRY AND WARM.                   
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
325 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TNGT THRU SUN NGT                                                 
PRIMARY CONCERN WL BE SYS APCHG FOR WEEKEND.  NIL WX ATTM WITH SW-NE            
ORIENTED SFC RDG FM OK INTO GRTLKS.  HWVR 100+KT JET NOW EXITING WRN            
CONUS TROF THRU RCKYS.  SHRT WV WHICH AS OFF CA CST YDA NOT PUSHING             
THRU UT AND SHOULD REACH MO VLY TMRW MRNG.  DOMESTIC 12Z MDLS                   
SIMILAR THRU 48 HRS BUT DVRG SGFNTLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ALTHOUGH              
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING VARY...CANADIAN AND EURO MDLS AGREE WITH GFS               
HANDLING OF NEXT GRTLKS SHRT WV WHICH IS NOW ALG WA CST.  NAM OUT OF            
PHASE AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED AND HAS NOT BEEN HANDLING THINGS WELL              
LATELY.                                                                         
APCHG UT SYS SHOULD RMN TO OUR W OVNGT BUT KINEMATIC AND                        
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING CERTAINLY INCR SAT.  ONLY LMTG FACTOR IS LACK             
OF MSTR DEPTH...BUT CONSIDERING ISENT LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT ALG               
310K SFC WL ADD SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR HIGH BASED LGT SHWRS NWRN             
PTNS.  FA MAINLY UNDER SUBSIDENCE BHND DEPARTING SHRT WV SAT                    
NGT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME EVIDENCE OF ISENT LIFT ALBEIT MSTR                
STARVED SO WL LEAVE SLGT CHCS GOING INTO SUN MRNG.                              
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SGFNT PCPN AND TSTMS INCRS SUN AFTN INTO MON                 
HWVR.  FNT SLOWLY CROSSES FA WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM               
SHEAR AOA 40KTS DRNG PEAK HEATING SUN SO CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT                 
CERTAINLY THERE IF AVBL INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED.  GFS 305K SFC              
HAS LOW LVL JET FOCUSED INTO SRN IA SUN NGT SO ALTHOUGH IT VEERS                
WITH TIME...ENOUGH ISENT LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO SUSTAIN                      
CONVECTION AFT SUNSET.  COULD GO SFC BASED MON AFTN AS WELL WITH                
SIMILAR SVR POTENTIAL...BUT THAT WL DEPEND ON RECOVERY TIME AND                 
STRENGTH OR EVEN EXISTENCE OF SUN NGT MCS.  HAVE BOOSTED POPS                   
FURTHER THRU CHC CATEGORY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO LIKELY                 
QUITE YET.                                                                      
SAT HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...BUT NOT BIG CONCERN.  BOTH FCST                
SOUNDINGS DO NOT MIX MUCH MORE THAN 875MB WITH TEMPS BLO 2KM +-1C FM            
TDA.  NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH HAVE SHOWN SLGT WRM BIAS...ONLY REACH               
WRMR GFS MOS IF NR SFC LYR SUPER-ADIABATIC.  CURRENT KOFK LAPS/RUC              
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING ABV THAT LVL HWVR WHICH MAKES SENSE                       
CONSIDERING DRY AMS SO NOT SURE WHICH DIRECTION TO LEAN.  WL SPLIT              
THE DIFFERENCE ATTM WITH GUIDANCE BLEND AND LCL CLIMO ADJUSTMENTS.              
HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABV PERSISTENCE AHD OF FNT.  FOLLOWED            
ADJUSTED BLEND FOR MINS.                                                        
.LONG TERM...MON NGT THRU FRI                                                   
NO SGFNT CONCERNS THIS PD BUT WL HAVE TO ADDRESS PCPN POTENTIAL FM              
PREVIOUSLY DRY FCST.  FNT EXITS SRN FA BY MON EVE AND RMNDR OF MON              
NGT INTO TUE LOOKS DRY WITH UPR MS VLY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.                  
PERIODIC ISENT LIFT THEN RETURNS TUE NGT INTO WED NGT AHD OF SLOW               
MOVG FNT.  CONFIDENCE DCRG ABT THIS TIME WITH LTL AGREEMENT WITH                
REGARD TO SFC LOW AND WRM FNTL PLACMENT ASSOCD WITH ILL-DEFINED SHRT            
WVS IN ACTIVE WLYS TO OUR N.  RECENT GFS RUNS NOW GENERATING WRM                
ADVCTN PCPN AHD OF AND ALG FNT AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY THRU IA               
THU/THU EVE.  CNVRGNC AND MSTR RTRN QUESTIONABLE WITH WEAK FLOW                 
HWVR.  BLEND OF GFS AND ASSOCD ENSEMBLES ALG WITH ECMWF THEN SUGGEST            
THAT FNT WL STALL JUST TO OUR S WITH BACLIN ZN INCR...AND MAINLY                
AFFECTING SRN PTNS.  THIS LOW CONFIDENCE RESULTED IN ADDING EXTENDED            
PD OF SLGT CHCS TO DRY FCST.                                                    
GUIDANCE TRENDING WRMR DAYS 4-6 WHICH MAKES SENSE CONIDERING SLY                
FLOW AND H85 TEMPS.  DID NOT JUMP ON TOO MUCH OF A SWING BUT DID                
RAISE A CATEGORY OR LESS.  FNT SEEMS TO PUSH THRU FRI SO RETURNED               
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
312 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SHOWING STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER GREAT LAKES               
WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN KY. SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EVIDENT             
ON THE VIS SATELLITE...EXTENDING FROM IN/OH BORDER SW TO WEST OF                
NASHVILLE. THESE FEATURES HAVE HELPED GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS                
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. MOST RECENT ACARS DATA SHOWING             
LOW-LEVEL CAP AROUND 700MB AT SDF...SO DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS AROUND             
THE METRO AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER RUC SOUNDINGS AROUND LEX STILL                  
SHOWING ABOUT 800 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS...EVEN            
A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITHIN LINE AS IT TRAVERSES EASTWARD.                
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY LATE EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS TO             
THE NORTHWEST. HAVE ENDED POPS OVER NW COUNTIES AND KEPT IN SLT CHC             
POPS IN OVER EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING.                    
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT AS MODELS                  
INDICATE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS                
WILL LOCK IN MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE SO FOG/MIST/DRIZZLE/STRATUS              
CERTAIN POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONDITIONS           
WILL STILL BE A BIT MIXY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AS 850MB              
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS BY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER TO              
THE WEST...SO WENT WITH PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN HALF AND DRIZZLE                
OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA. STRATUS AND MORNING FOG/MIST/DRIZZLE WILL             
LIKELY STICK AROUND THE AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...AND WITH            
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO                
MUCH OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY INTO REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON            
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD. STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO                   
DISSIPATE...SO WILL START WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL BECOME              
PARTLY CLOUDY BY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CORRESPONDING               
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE MID-TO-UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...EXCEPT              
FOR NEAR THE TN BORDER WHICH COULD SEE 80 DEGREES FOR A HIGH ON SAT.            
HOWEVER...WILL COOL OFF QUICK TOMORROW AS SUN BEGINS TO                         
SET...CREATING FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS.                                            
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                   
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE LONG               
TERM. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SLIGHT                
WEAKNESSES IN SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING.                                        
MODELS IN A BIT MORE AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING WEATHER MONDAY INTO              
TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS THAT                  
INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.                       
GEM/ECMWF/NOGAPS/NAM/OPERATIONAL GFS ALL BRING AN UPPER 5H SHORTWAVE            
TROF INTO THE LAKES AND A SURFACE COOL FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST                   
MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                  
OPERATIONAL GFS TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW A FEW HOURS OF DEEPER RH AND GOOD             
UVV MONDAY EVENING IN OUR NORTHWEST. AS THIS FRONT TRIES TO PUSH                
EAST IT WEAKENS QUITE A BIT AND LOSES A LOT OF ITS IDENTITY BY                  
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IN CONTRAST...THE GFS ENSEMBLE KEEPS THE SURFACE             
RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND PREVENTS               
ANY PRECIPITATION FROM COMING INTO THE AREA. ENSEMBLE POPS REMAIN               
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. THAT THE ENSEMBLE GFS STAYS DRY IS TROUBLESOME               
HOWEVER WITH OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING SOME SMALL THREAT OF                       
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST IN              
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUR INDIANA                        
COUNTIES...MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND               
THEN ENDING TUESDAY WITH POPS NEVER RISING ABOVE LOW CHANCE. THIS               
LINES UP WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TOO.                                     
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE..                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1240 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                     
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST.  MADE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES            
TO QPF AND POPS TO REFLECT THE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH.  RUC ONCE                 
AGAIN HANDLING NEAR TERM VERY WELL AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR                 
UPDATE.  OPHELIA WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL            
WATER.  NO OTHER CHANGES.                                                       
MCJ                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                            
...OPHELIA WATCHES CONTD WITH 5AM PACKAGE AND IF WE GO TO A                     
WARNING IT WILL BE WITH THE 11AM PKG...                                         
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
PNSBOX FOR RFALL TOTALS WILL GO THRU ANOTHER ITERATION AROUND 9AM               
FRIDAY FOR WDSPRD 2-4" TOTALS I95 CORRIDOR SEWD YDY.                            
HOW TODAY THROUGH SAT UNFOLD IS STILL DEBATABLE BUT THIS FCSTR IS               
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL LARGE AMTS IN PARTS OF SNE BY 00Z SUN.                     
THIS DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP SLY FLOW OF TROP PW ARD 1.75" WITH SUBTLE               
1000-850 THICKNESS LIFT DUE TO THE LIGHT NE FLOW IN SNE.                        
AS YOU CAN FROM RADAR.. THE REINJECTION CONNECTION TO OPHELIA SEEMS             
TO HAVE STARTED WITH GRADU INCREASE IN SHOWERS...SOME OF THEM HEAVY             
AS OF 11Z AND POISED TO WASH ASHORE FROM OFF OF ERN LI TO BID!  I               
LIKE THE 09Z RUC FOR THE SHORT TERM IDEA. THEN LATE TONIGHT AND SAT             
MORNING MID LVL DEF ZONE RW+ BAND NR I95 AND OPEHLIA RW+ ALONG AND              
JUST E OF THE CENTER.                                                           
THIS DROUGHT DENTING RAIN OF THE PAST 24 HRS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE               
TOTAL AMTS IN PARTS OF SE NEW ENGLAND FM 12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN OF OVER           
5"...MAYBE AS MUCH AS 7". GIVE US TIME TO EXPRESS CONFIDENCE ON THE             
ABV LATER THIS SHIFT.                                                           
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
OPHELIA RELATED.                                                                
WATCHES CONTD.  11AM WILL THE DECISION TIME FOR WARNING IF WE GO THAT           
ROUTE FOR ACK REGION. ALL STMTS ETC FOLLOW ARD 5AM.                             
IN-HOUSE CK OF TPC PREDICTED WINDS SHOWS ABOUT 7-9 HRS OF 39 MPH OR             
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS FOR ACK-CHH-MVY STARTING ROUGHLY 4 AM AND                
ENDING ARD 1 PM.F                                                               
DECISION ON 11AM WARNING (24HR LEAD TIME) IS THE EXTENT OF TS WIND              
FIELD ON NW SIDE OF THE STORM..WHICH IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT.                      
HEAVY SURF ADVY POSTED.  5 FT SWELLS FM OPHELIA ARE PROGRESSING NWD             
INTO OUR CW INCLUDING MVY.                                                      
NEW FFG NOT UPDATED TIL 14Z/16 WITH TODAYS HEAVY RAINS SO YDY                   
GUIDANCE FM 14Z/15 IS NOT IDEAL TO USE.  STILL ATTM NO FFA BUT MAY              
NEED TO ISSUE IN LATE MORNING PKG.                                              
SO...A COASTAL FLOOD...TSWRNG AND FFA ALL UNDER CONSIDERATION NEXT              
SHIFT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                 
...RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...                       
OPHELIA DEPARTS THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A                 
TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. TRAILING SHORT WAVE                
CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS AMPLIFIED AS IN                
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT THE SHORT WAVE DAMPENS OUT WITH TIME AS IT               
TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST. THUS DECIDED TO LOWER POPS SUNDAY. WEAK              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WITH DRYING                
CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE              
MOISTURE AND MOMENTUM TO WORK WITH. DECIDED TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT              
CHANCE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NEXT CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS               
FRONT WEAKENS WITH TIME AS WELL. DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE                 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED TIME                    
FRAME.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CHAOTIC AVIATION CONDITIONS ETM WITH DENSE FOG IN PLACES.                       
PLS SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE OPHELIA ARE IMPACTING THE SOUTH                   
COASTAL WATERS OF MA AND RI...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTERMOST COASTAL            
WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS                  
SEAS.                                                                           
SEAS WILL RISE SHARPLY AND EXTREMELY STEEP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST             
COASTAL WATERS SAT MORNING. THE BIG 17 FT WH GROUP WILL PROB                    
ACCOMPANY OR TRAIL OPHELIA BY A COUPLE OF HRS ALONG AND E OF OPHELIAS           
TRACK.                                                                          
SEAS GRADU DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AND SUN.                                          
.CLIMO...                                                                       
RER FOR PVD SENT...2.66 INCHES FOR 9/15/05 BEATS DAILY RECORD OF                
1.22 INCHES SET BACK IN 9/15/1999.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAZ019>024 UNTIL 10 PM MON.                     
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAZ018-019-022>024 TIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RIZ004-008 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.                  
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231>237-254-255 UNTIL 10 PM              
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ250 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO 4 PM                     
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ250 UNTIL                   
MIDNIGHT                                                                        
     SATURDAY                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...DRAG                                                              
.LONG TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
339 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                              
LOW/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MAKING              
VERY SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH OPHELIA                   
LIFTING NORTHEAST...FINALLY ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD IN DURING                   
SATURDAY AND PROMOTING BETTER CLEARING. AT 500 MB...VORTICITY                   
MAXIMUM...WELL INITIALIZED NEAR SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MI AS PER WATER            
VAPOR IMAGERY AT 12Z...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MI THIS AFTERNOON             
TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE HURON BY 00Z. SECONDARY BUT VERY WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT AND TO THE EAST SATURDAY.               
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE GOOD EARLY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY                          
NORTH...WANING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING QUITE DRY SATURDAY. 925 MB                
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EARLY...SLOWLY DECREASING               
BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT LEFT ON SATURDAY.                                       
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT HANGING ON TONIGHT IN                          
THUMB...ESPECIALLY EARLY...OTHERWISE WEAK SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN BY              
TONIGHT AND PREVAILING THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT VICINITY OF THE THUMB...IN CLOSER                    
PROXIMITY TO EASTERN LAKES TROUGH. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER             
NORTHERN COUNTIES MUCH OF TODAY SHOULD BE GONE BY EARLY THIS EVENING.           
WILL KEEP SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS GOING IN THUMB TONIGHT...AND                  
MENTION ALSO OVER MUCH OF REMAINDER OF NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS             
EVENING IN KEEPING WITH CURRENT DIMINISHING RADAR TRENDS.                       
OTHERWISE...JUST MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SPRINKLES.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                      
A MEAN TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LATE THIS                 
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP               
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US... WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH RACES                
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND AN ASSOCIATED COLD                
FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY.                       
MEANWHILE... THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP            
INTO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THE                    
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW A SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF              
THIS SYSTEM AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER US ON SUNDAY. THIS              
SHORT WAVE EVENTUALLY REACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY                         
MONDAY...ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY AND TRACK ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NAM/WRFXX HOWEVER DO              
NOT SHOW THIS SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION... AND THUS ONLY                
SHOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY.                
WITH THE GFS SOLUTION HAVING INITIALIZED UPSTREAM WAVES MORE                    
REALISTICALLY AND GIVEN THE CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE                              
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN... PREFER THEIR SOLUTION. THE GFS DOES HAVE SOME             
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...WHICH LIKELY LEADS TO OVERDEVELOPMENT              
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WILL STILL HOWEVER PLAN ON A SHORT WAVE                     
INTERACTING WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE                 
FRONT AND MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO            
EARLY TUES.                                                                     
A FAST AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS             
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS             
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE                
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A                
TROUGH DIVES INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN US... WITH                
RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE 00Z CANADIAN AND 12Z GFS              
SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SUIT WITH THIS TREND. WILL THUS FORECAST TEMPS             
ABOVE CLIMO DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE             
ENERGY LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STILL             
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC... WITH LARGE SPREADS STILL EVIDENT AMONG                   
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL            
GFS IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO BE ON THURSDAY.             
AT THIS POINT... WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS              
AND VARIOUS MODELS CONVERGE A LITTLE MORE ON A SOLUTION.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED AT 222 PM                                                   
A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN HAS AND WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST. AN EXTENSIVE              
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...STRETCHING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN            
ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHERN                          
ARKANSAS...HAS BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE                
INVERSION. CURRENT SURFACE OBS REVEAL THE BULK OF THIS STRATUS TO BE            
UNDER 1000 FEET. THE DETROIT AREA HAS BEEN JUST ON THE NORTHERN                 
OUTSKIRTS OF THIS IFR DECK...REMAINING PRIMARILY AT MVFR CEILINGS               
AROUND 2500 FEET. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW IFR CEILINGS AT THE             
DETROIT TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED ON UPSTREAM               
OBS...THIS SEEMS LIKELY BUT STILL HAS NOT HAPPENED AS OF 2 PM. A                
TIGHTER GRADIENT NEAR DETROIT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW            
HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS            
HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS FROM SETTLING IN. THE               
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW              
THE WINDS AT DTW AND DET TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH FOR LIFR CLOUDS TO                   
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS            
AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR                       
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.                                                           
DRIER AIR NORTH OF DETROIT WILL HELP KEEP FNT ABOVE IFR. OCCASIONAL             
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS                         
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE                    
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SAGINAW LOOKS TO BE FAR               
ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN AT VFR CEILINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES            
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN SHOWERS.                                    
THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON LONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO                
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SAGINAW             
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE                   
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.          
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.                 
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
AVIATION...SHULER                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU MON.                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL WSW FLOW ACROSS             
THE CONUS. A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING INTO THE ERN GREAT                 
LAKES. UPSTREAM...A MINOR SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM MT TO SRN MN HAD             
PRODUCED A FEW -SHRA AND AN ISOLD TSRA OVER ERN SD EARLIER TODAY.               
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS OVER SRN NV AND A CLOSED            
MIDLEVEL LOW WAS OVER WRN WA. THE SHORTWAVE OVER SRN NV WILL BRING              
THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF PCPN TO THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. VIS                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BASICALLY CLR SKIES OVER THE FCST AREA                
THIS AFTN WITH ONLY A SCATTERING OF CU OVER PARTS OF THE W HALF OF              
UPPER MI AND SOME CI OVER THE FAR E. WITH FULL SUN...TEMPS HAVE                 
REACHED THE MID 70S AT MANY REPORTING STATIONS.                                 
UNTIL NV SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SAT NIGHT...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL                 
ACROSS UPPER MI. WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED A FEW SHRA/TSRA OVER              
ERN SD WILL LIFT NE AND NOT BE FACTOR HERE AS DRY AIR HOLDS OVER THE            
AREA (NOTE 12Z KMPX SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED A DRY PROFILE BELOW                   
750MB). THE LAYER OF MOISTURE SHOWN ON KMPX SOUNDING FROM 550-700MB             
AND REVEALING ITSELF AS SOME MID CLOUDS OVER WCNTRL WI PER SATELLITE            
IMAGERY MAY RESULT IN A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO                  
PRECLUDE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING ACROSS THE BOARD. THE SLIGHTLY COOLER             
GFS MOS MINS ARE PREFERRED DUE TO LACK OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT/CALM                 
WIND.                                                                           
EXPECT A WARM DAY FOR MID SEPT ON SAT AS S TO SW FLOW CONTINUES TO              
BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. MIXING TO AROUND 850MB ON GFS/NAM               
FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S (WILL BE A FEW               
DEGREES COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SRLY FLOW). WOULD NOT BE                 
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SPOTS REACH 80 (RECORD FOR SAT AT KMQT IS                
82). MODELS SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE MID LEVELS SAT                 
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W...BUT CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ARE QUITE                
HIGH. SKIES WILL PROBABLY TREND PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE W WHERE                   
STRONGER ASCENT IS INDICATED...BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY E.                       
SAT NIGHT...ATTENTION FOCUSES ON SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NV.                   
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS WAVE REACHING WRN LAKE               
SUPERIOR LATE SAT NIGHT. MODEST 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS INDICATED            
OVER THE W...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS STILL DON'T REVEAL MUCH FOR ELEVATED            
CAPE (NAM IS HIGHEST AT UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG). NONETHELESS...               
POTENTIAL OF SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO RETAIN             
GOING LOW RANGE CHC POPS OVER ABOUT THE W HALF OF FCST AREA SAT                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
STRONGER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE HEADS ACROSS ONTARIO SUN...PUSHING                
COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING OF FRONT...              
REACHING WRN FCST AREA LATE SUN MORNING AND EXITING THE E LATE                  
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. GFS AND NAM ALSO SHOW MLCAPE RISING TO 400-700J/KG          
AHEAD OF FRONT. SO...EXPECT BEST CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO BE OVER THE E              
HALF AS FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING WARMEST PART OF THE AFTN...BUT EVEN             
THERE...WILL ONLY UTILIZE MIDRANGE CHC POPS AS FORCING IS NOT                   
STRONG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS UPWARDS OF 30KTS...LIMITED CAPE            
SHOULD PRECLUDE SVR STORMS. PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E WITH FROPA.               
ON MON...CONCERN WILL BE ON ENERGY ORIGINATING FROM MIDLEVEL LOW                
CURRENTLY OVER WRN WA. AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
WERE TRENDING TOWARD TAKING THIS ENERGY EWD AND DEVELOPING AN                   
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE THAT LIFTS ENE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE               
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES SUN. 00Z/12Z ECMWF BECOME QUITE WRAPPED UP WITH          
THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES TO NRN LAKE MI BY MON EVENING. AT THIS                  
POINT...PREFER A MORE SUPPRESSED/WEAKER SFC LOW SIMILAR TO 12Z                  
GFS/CANADIAN AS UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF             
MUCH SHORTWAVE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HAVING SAID                  
THAT...THE GFS APPEARS TO BRING TOO MUCH PCPN TOO FAR N. FOR NOW...             
WILL STAY ALONG THE LINES OF GOING FCST WHICH HAS LOW CHC POPS OVER             
ROUHGLY THE SRN FCST AREA.                                                      
SHOULD BE A CHILLY NIGHT MON NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER WRN            
UPPER MI BY 12Z TUE. MINS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S SEEM QUITE POSSIBLE            
AT THE USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR W HALF OF FCST AREA.                    
TUE-FRI...00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT              
FOR THIS PERIOD CONSIDERING THE FAST FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA. DURING             
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ONE POSSIBLE PCPN EVENT WAS SUGGESTED BY              
THE MODELS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME...THOUGH                
MODELS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A DRY SOLUTION. SHORTWAVE IN QUESTION IS            
STILL INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS MODELS PASSING ACROSS ONTARIO TUE                
NIGHT...BUT 00Z/06Z GFS ARE BY FAR THE MOST NRLY SOLUTIONS. EVEN                
WITH THE OTHER FARTHER S SOLUTIONS...BULK OF FORCING STILL REMAINS N            
OF FCST AREA...AND THERE IS REALLY NO CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL MOISTURE            
RETURN. WILL THUS ONLY RETAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM ISLE ROYALE                  
ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND DROP THE SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM THE                
REST OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. ECMWF/06Z GFS HAVE                      
SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR TIMING FOR NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING THU AND WILL            
INTRODUCE POPS FOR THU/THU NIGHT (WOULD EXPECT TO SEE TIMING ISSUES             
DEVELOP IN LATER RUNS THOUGH). TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE             
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
222 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN HAS AND WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR A CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST. AN EXTENSIVE              
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...STRETCHING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN            
ALL THE WAY BACK DOWN TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHERN                          
ARKANSAS...HAS BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE                
INVERSION. CURRENT SURFACE OBS REVEAL THE BULK OF THIS STRATUS TO BE            
UNDER 1000 FEET. THE DETROIT AREA HAS BEEN JUST ON THE NORTHERN                 
OUTSKIRTS OF THIS IFR DECK...REMAINING PRIMARILY AT MVFR CEILINGS               
AROUND 2500 FEET. THE 12Z NAM AND RUC BOTH SHOW IFR CEILINGS AT THE             
DETROIT TERMINALS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BASED ON UPSTREAM               
OBS...THIS SEEMS LIKELY BUT STILL HAS NOT HAPPENED AS OF 2 PM. A                
TIGHTER GRADIENT NEAR DETROIT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW            
HAS RESULTED IN WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS            
HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS FROM SETTLING IN. THE               
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW              
THE WINDS AT DTW AND DET TO SUBSIDE ENOUGH FOR LIFR CLOUDS TO                   
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS            
AND DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL MVFR                       
VISIBILITIES AS WELL.                                                           
DRIER AIR NORTH OF DETROIT WILL HELP KEEP FNT ABOVE IFR. OCCASIONAL             
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS                         
AFTERNOON...AND THEN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE                    
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SAGINAW LOOKS TO BE FAR               
ENOUGH NORTH TO REMAIN AT VFR CEILINGS. OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES            
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN RAIN SHOWERS.                                    
THE STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON LONG ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO                
PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. SAGINAW             
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE                 
NORTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED 1201 PM                                                        
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AS DEPICTED VIA WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY...STILL TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SHOWER                
COVERAGE ON RADAR HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AND IS LARGELY CONFINED TO            
THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HAVE UPDATED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS             
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS IN THE THUMB...AND SMALLER                 
CHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE IN FAR SOUTH. A SOUPY LOW            
CLOUD TYPE OF AFTERNOON EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING.                    
THUS...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA              
EARLY THIS MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF             
THIS DISTURBANCE IS SPREADING AN AREA OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN NORTH              
THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. THIS AREA PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF              
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BY AND LARGE EAST OF THE REGION            
BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.                                              
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BACK TO             
THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER WILL THEN TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF THE                
AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE AFTN.            
GIVEN SATELLITE/RADAR REPRESENTATION...WILL UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL              
(80-90%) SOUTH...AND EXPAND THE REMAINING LIKELY AREA NORTH PAST                
INTERSTATE 69...BUT LIMIT THESE HIGH RANGE POPS TO THE MORNING.                 
THEREAFTER...SYSTEM MOVES STEADILY TO THE EAST...LEAVING JUST SPOTTY            
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.                            
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA...WHERE DRY SLOT MAY            
LIMIT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE AS 80%              
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING.                                             
TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND              
RAINFALL...AND THEN AGAIN TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR TO SOME DEGREE AND             
AREA REMAINS IN RELATIVELY COOL POCKET OF AIR JUST IN BEHIND THE                
SYSTEM WHICH IS BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH OPHELIA BY THAT TIME. THE               
TEMPERATURES WILL DO NO BETTER THE THE 60S TODAY IN MOST AREAS WITH             
PERHAPS JUST THE SAGINAW VALLEY TOUCHING 70 (AWAY FROM MAIN BRUNT OF            
THE CLOUDS/RAIN). TONIGHT...50-55 IN MANY AREAS...WITH SPORADIC LOWS            
IN THE 45-50 RANGE IN RURAL VALLEYS...ETC. WILL TREND FROM CLOUDY TO            
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AS AFOREMENTIONED PHASING OF LOW PRESSURE               
WILL HOLD UP THE WORKS SOMEWHAT...AND DELAY A FULL SCALE CLEARING               
UNTIL SATURDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT                   
THE LONG TERM ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH            
OF SHORT WAVE(S) AS SPLIT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL NEXT            
WEEK.                                                                           
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER EASTERN             
HALF OF THE STATE OF MICHIGAN PER GFS/NAM AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR                
STRATO CU OFF LAKE HURON SHOULD KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND ON SATURDAY.            
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR                 
PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST BY LATE MORNING. WITH LAKE HURON               
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST                
FLOW...WILL THUS FOLLOW THE SLIGHTLY COOLER 00Z GFS MOS MAX TEMPS.              
THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE                   
STATE...A QUIET AND COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE DECENT                
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 500MB SHORT WAVE APPROACHES               
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES IN FAVOR OF THE                 
NORTHERN POSITION OF THIS FRONT...THEREFORE KEEPING THE CWA DRY                 
THROUGH SUNDAY.  WE DO EXPECT A LITTLE BIT MORE IN THE MID LEVEL                
CLOUD COVER BUT A PTCLOUDY SKY SHOULD SUFFICE.  CLOUD COVER AND                 
RESIDUAL SURFACE WIND COMPONENT OFF OF LAKE HURON...WE WILL SHAVE               
OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ADJACENT               
LAKE HURON COUNTIES WITH UPPER 70S INLAND AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                
NOW NEXT WEEK WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS WE MONITOR THE TROPICS            
AND WHICH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND RESULTANT              
AMPLIFICATION BRINGS OUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.  RECENT TREND IN             
THE GFS PER DPROG/DT FOR MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY IS MORE AMPLIFICATION             
WHICH IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE THU-18Z DGEX.  THIS BRINGS                
ABOUT WARM ADVECTION AND THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MONDAY INTO                  
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD AMPLIFICATION...THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE                
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SOMEWHAT WITH LINGERING CHANCE FOR LIGHT                
RAIN SHOWERS ON TUESDAY MORNING.  THEREAFTER...ANOTHER RETURN TO                
RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES THROUGH MID WEEK.                    
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO APPROACH ON THURSDAY YET ENSEMBLE                
MEMBERS ARE QUITE SIMPLY ALL OVER THE MAP AND PREFER TO STAY THE                
COURSE WITH CLIMATOLOGY (DRY) AT THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE                   
NEARSHORE WATERS...6 PM TO 6 AM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.                       
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                       
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....SHULER                                                             
UPDATE...DWD                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1215 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS ALREADY OUT. LOWERED TEMPS BY A               
FEW DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA DUE TO ABUNDANT                
CLOUDINESS. OTHERWISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW TWEAKS FOR                    
CURRENT TRENDS...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.              
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH IS BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN            
ZONES (WHICH IS FARTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF US THOUGHT YESTERDAY).                
SULLIVAN                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 445 AM SEP 16                                           
DISCUSSION...SFC MAP...SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS HIGH             
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NRN WI...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO               
SFC LOWS. ONE OF WHICH IS TO OUR NW...IN WESTERN ONTARIO WHERE A                
WEAK COOL FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN ND. THE OTHER               
SYSTEM WAS IN THE SRN IL VICINITY WITH PARENT SHORTWAVE MOVING                  
THROUGH NE IL/CHICAGO VICINITY. THIS LOW PRESSURE HAS MUCH MORE                 
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AS A THICK DECK OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD WAS               
INVADING ALL OF NRN LOWER. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WAS STILL WELL SOUTH             
OF THE CWA...IN THE MKG...GRR...FNT AND DTW AREAS. LIGHT SHOWERS AND            
SPRINKLES WERE IMPOSING UPON THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA...BUT CEILINGS             
REMAINED 10KFT OR HIGHER.                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS...PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND EXTENT OF CLOUDY SKIES             
AND THEIR EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS. AFTERWARDS...TIMING THE CLEARING FOR            
TONIGHT...THEN TRYING TO DISCERN HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM AND FRONTAL                
ZONE WILL BEHAVE FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.                    
TODAY...GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL HANDLING THE SITUATION MOST               
CORRECTLY...AS USUAL. LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM             
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE THE DEEP NE FLOW KEEPS THE SUB              
10KFT LAYER RELATIVELY DRY. DO NOT FORESEE CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW              
8KFT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE ARENAC/GLADWIN COUNTIES.              
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE             
SRN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODERATE H8-H5 -DIVQ AND IN LINE WITH               
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT DOES NOT LOOK TO PASS NORTH OF M-32. WILL             
CARRY SPRINKLES FOR THE M-32 CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS              
SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THIS PRECIP SHIELD WILL SHUNT EASTWARD WITH                 
PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON WHILE SKIES DECREASE             
IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS FAR NW                
LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY SUNNY...ONLY SEEING              
SOME HIGH CLOUD IN THE MORNING THEN SOME AFTERNOON CU. WILL HAVE                
LIGHT LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING FOR THESE AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE               
LESS INFLUENCED BY NE GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH.                                    
TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SLIDE EAST AND OUT              
OF THE CWA...AND DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR REMNANT LIGHT                       
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FAR SE ZONES WILL             
CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC HIGH RE-PLANTS ITSELF ACROSS THE CWA.            
SHOULD BE A NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG...AND POSSIBLY MORE SO FOR THOSE              
AREAS THAT MAY MEASURE A FEW HUNDREDTHS FROM THE SHOWERS. WILL LET              
DAY CREW ASSESS FOG POTENTIAL...BUT WITH SFC TD'S HANGING IN THE                
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S THROUGH THE DAY...AND CLEARING OCCURRING                      
OVERNIGHT...DO EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...MAINLY OVER INLAND                  
LAKES. LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TUMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN MANY                
INLAND AREAS.                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH SFC HIGH SLOWLY                
SLIDING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...LOW                 
TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S (LOWEST AREAS) TO THE UPPER 40S. MAYBE SOME                
HIGH CLOUD TRAVERSING THE SKY...BUT PARTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT FOR               
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
SUNDAY ONWARD...NO MAJOR CHANGES...MODELS HOWEVER ARE STARTING TO               
DOWNPLAY THE FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND             
ARE RATHER PLAYING UP A POSSIBLE NEW WAVE RIDING THIS BOUNDARY                  
MONDAY. HAVER NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES AND WILL LET DAY CREW ASSESS            
ANY INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY. I DID LOWER THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER               
WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY                 
LOOKS WEAK.   SMD                                                               
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPS MAINLY ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY THIS               
AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE I10 CORRIDOR              
WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                             
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED FROM NEAR KBMQ TO NEAR OR JUST               
SOUTH OF I10 NEAR KJCT TO KSOA LATE THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE                  
FRONT...ISENTROPIC LIFTING ALONG WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
RESULTED IN LIFR CIGS AT KSJT WITH MVFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH AT                   
KABI THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING AND          
EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR               
FOR BOTH KABI AND KSJT THROUGH 20Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING                    
THEREAFTER. WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A CUMULUS FIELD HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG                  
I10. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR                           
THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR TOMORROW MORNING...LOOKS LIKE LOW CEILINGS                
AND FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE AGAIN AT KSJT WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE                
PREVIOUS DAYS AND A SIMILAR SETUP IN PLACE.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1106 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005)                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND                      
MAX TEMPS.  ADJUSTED THE TEMPS DOWN AS COOL FRONT AND CLOUD COVER               
WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE              
OVERCAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS                          
PUSHED SOUTH OF CWA. HOWEVER...A VERY LOW LEVEL FRONTAL INVERSION               
WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS ANOTHER CATEGORY.            
STAY TUNED.                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY FROM KJCT TO JUST SOUTH OF                  
KSOA AND KP07. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WIDE SPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH              
AREAS OF IFR GIGS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10                   
KNOTS. LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FROM ABOUT 12 SOUTH OF  
KSWW TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF KABI TO NEAR KSEP. AS FOR THE TWO                      
TERMINALS WITH THIS FORECAST...WILL NEED TO START OFF MENTIONING                
SOME SHRA IN THE KABI TAF AS IT IS ALREADY IN THE VICINITY AND WILL             
CONTINUE THE SHRA THROUGH ABOUT 16Z AS FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO WASH              
OUT. WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN CONDITIONS              
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS MID SEPTEMBER SUN SHOULD ERODE THE                   
CLOUDS. WINDS TO STAY 020 TO 050 LESS THAN 10 KNTS. THROUGH MUCH                
OF THE DAY.                                                                     
HAVE BEEN IN LIMBO AS TO WHETHER TO MENTION SOME SHRA AT THE KSJT               
TERMINAL...BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED TIME TO DEVELOP AND SEE NOTHING                
IN THE VCNTY AT THIS TIME WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE OUT AT THIS                   
POINT IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP...BEST TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN                  
12Z-14Z. IFR CIGS AT KSJT ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO MVFR BY                
16Z AND THEN CIG SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO BREAK BY 19Z AS FRONTAL                   
SURFACE BEGINS TO ERODE. WINDS PRETTY MUCH 040-060 AROUND 10 KNTS               
OR LESS.                                                                        
27/BRAZZELL                                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 311 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF OZONA...JUNCTION TO               
NEAR WACO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10                  
MPH IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE STILL PRETTY HIGH IN         
WC TEXAS WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WITH               
DEW POINTS IN LOWER 60 WAS MOVING INTO HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON                 
COUNTIES. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ABILENE               
TO THE FT WORTH/DALLAS METROPLEX. WHILE...KSJT RADAR VAD SHOWED ONLY ONE        
GATE OF SOUTH WINDS OF 15 KTS AT 5000 MSL...LOW AND MID LEVEL                   
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...INDICATING MID LEVEL               
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED                    
MID/UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST                   
UNITED STATES.                                                                  
QUESTION OF POPS FOR TODAY...TO PUT IN OR NOT. NEGATIVES ARE THE INCREASING     
UPPER RIDGING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.                          
POSITIVES ARE...WE ARE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS                
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CONCHO VALLEY TODAY. THE ETA MODEL IS A BIT               
MORE AGRESSIVE AS POPS ARE CONCERNED BUT GFS DOES DEPICT SOME                   
PRECIP IN THE REGION (MAINLY MORNING). WE ALSO HAVE SOME LEFT OVER              
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND APPARENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. WILL GIVE A 20 PERCENT FROM I-20                   
SOUTHWARD TODAY. WITH NO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND WEAKER                      
INSTABILITY...LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSTMS CHANCES TONIGHT.                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN                     
STRENGTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKS DRY AND WARM.                   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
26/19/05                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
208 PM MDT FRI SEP 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...THE 18Z NAM AND RUC CONTINUE THE THEME OF A             
SHORTWAVE FEATURE RIDING A 100 KNOT JET INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM             
UTAH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE                 
TEENS AND 20S BLANKETING MOST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL               
ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE PANHANDLE OVER THE COMING HOURS...BUT             
OVERALL EXPECTING MAINLY WIND-PRODUCING STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF A             
WHEATLAND-ALLIANCE LINE EARLY THIS EVENING. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL              
KEEP WINDS UP EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THUS AN UNSEASONABLY MILD             
NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR                 
SKIES.  POMEROY                                                                 
.LONG TERM...SAT THRU FRI. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SWRD ACROSS               
THE ZONES SAT NIGHT/SUN THUS POPS ORIENTED ACCORDINGLY ALONG FRONT.             
WILL SIDE CLOSER TO DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR MON WITH RIDGING                     
PREVAILING. RIDGING PREVAILS AGAIN TUE. SLIM CHANCE OF LATE DAY                 
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SWRN ZONES...WHICH IS ALREADY COVERED IN OUR              
GRIDS. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT ON WED...THUS BETTER TSTM CHANCES             
THEN. THU LOOKS DRY AGAIN AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES. SWLY             
FLOW ALOFT KEEPS US DRY ON FRI...ESPECIALLY WITH LIMITED LOW/MID                
LEVEL MOISTURE.   RUBIN                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wy