SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
203 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                     
UPPER HIGH CENTER CURRENTLY OVER KS/NE WITH SUBTROPICAL PLUME                   
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.                       
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 12Z RAOBS ARE RUNNING FROM AROUND 100 TO 180           
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS UT/WRN CO. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY                    
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WV PICS...WHICH            
MAY IMPACT WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO                   
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WRN MTNS              
AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS             
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE IN LARGE PART TO SFC HEATING.  ACROSS SE                 
PLAINS...300-200MB POT VORT LOBE ROTATING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH HIGH              
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH ERN CO THROUGH THE                
EVENING. AM CURIOUS IF THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE TSTORM                
COVERAGE ACROSS SRN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS ATTM.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS             
WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED OUT WEST...TAPERING TO ISOLATED ALONG THE              
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE EXPANDED 10 POPS EASTWARD A BIT AS                
MESO-ETA AND RUC 40 SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO CAP.               
HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS.                 
WITHOUT MUCH UPPER LVL SUPPORT EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO DIE OFF BY             
06Z. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW LVL JET OUT             
EAST...AND CLOUD COVER OUT WEST.  HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS SOME.                    
ON SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER HIGH STILL              
CENTERED TO THE EAST...AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN              
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.  THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONG                
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...THOUGH ITS                  
DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A SUBTLE FEATURE              
WHICH COULD ENHANCE CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE H20 WILL BE PRETTY                
SIMILAR TO TODAYS...AND EVEN TEMPS DON'T LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MUCH            
DIFFERENT FROM TODAYS.  HAVE WARMED UP GRIDS OUT EAST...COOLED THEM             
OFF A BIT OUT WEST (UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER)...AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS           
FOR THE WESTERN MOST AREAS.  FAR EASTERN PLAINS LOOK CAPPED DURING              
THE DAY TOMORROW...AND HAVE TRIMMED SOME POPS ACROSS THAT AREA. -KT             
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY).                         
SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE W/ THE UPR RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E OF CO...A              
SHRTWV IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...TO MOVE OVR WRN CO           
AND THEN ACRS NRN CO.  THIS SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SHWRS/TSTMS OVR                 
THE MTNS. THE UPR FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...SO MAY               
NOT SEE TOO MANY DRIFT OFF OVR THE ERN PLAINS...SO WL JUST KEEP SOME            
POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.                                                   
AS THAT SHRTWV PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS STATES MON...A FRONT IS                   
EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE ERN CO PLAINS. THE ETA SHOWS A WK AFTN                
FRONTAL PUSH W/ LITTLE INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A           
WND SHIFT IN THE AFTN AND IT SHOWS A GOOD INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR.             
THE GFS THEN SHOWS A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE IN THE EVE HRS ALONG W/ A           
GOOD INCREASE IN MSTR THROUGH THE MID AND LOW LVLS...AND A SHRTWV               
TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE AREA. WL GO W/ SCT POPS ALL AREAS AND WL KEEP            
AT LEAST 20 POPS GOING THRU THE NIGHT. GFS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF                 
PRECIP OVR THE SE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS BETWEEN MON EVE AND TUE EVE.             
TUE IT WL STILL BE UNSETTLED AS THERE WL STILL BE SOME NE UPSLOPE               
ALONG THE ERN MTNS AND SRN BORDER AREA AND THE SHRTWV WL STILL BE OVR           
THE AREA...WHICH WL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHC FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WL BE             
COOLER.                                                                         
ON WED AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE GRT BASIN W/ MOST OF THE MSTR IN              
CO BEING OVR WRN CO...SO WL KEEP POPS OVR THE MTNS AND GO W/ DRY WX             
OVR THE ERN AREAS.  FOR THU AND FRI THE RIDGE AND THE MSTR SHIFT A              
BIT EWRD. WL GO W/POPS OVR THE MTNS AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND LEAVE THE             
FAR E PLAINS DRY.                                                               
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
815 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
...SHORT TERM...                                                                
ACTIVITY HAS DIED OUT VERY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS VERY JUICED AIRMASS               
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2" HAS EXPENDED ITS ENERGY                  
EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER ARE               
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE SPOTTY CONVECTION              
CONTINUES ALONG MAIN OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF THE OVERNIGHT...SHOULD BE ABLE TO GO POP FREE FOR MOST AREAS                 
WITH SOME LOCALES ENDING THE LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAIN                   
CONCERN IS WITH RUC DEPICTION OF CAROLINAS SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO               
SOUTHERN GEORGIA BEFORE SUNRISE. MESO-ETA MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH             
THIS FEATURE AND SETTLES IT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA.                
WATER VAPOR INDICATES A DECENT SOUTHWARD PUSH AND FEEL IT SHOULD                
GET VERY CLOSE TO THE CWA TOWARD MORNING. LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM            
AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY. MODELS ALSO               
INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE              
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT IT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID                   
MORNING BEFORE ENTERING OUR COUNTIES.                                           
...MARINE...                                                                    
AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING...SHOULD              
SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT FLOW...BUT MORE IN LINE                
WITH THE THE ETA/MESO-ETA THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD DICTATE WINDS                
MOSTLY IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE OCCASIONALLY GUSTING HIGHER. CURRENT                
PACKAGE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND KEEP AS IS.                               
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DEESE/SHASHY/KEEGAN                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
640 PM EST FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z...                                                  
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS. SOME CONCERN WITH                    
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT FOG AT KFWA            
NEAR DAYBREAK. CURRENT DEWPOINT IN MID 60S AT KFWA AND LATEST RUC               
CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING NEAR 85 PERCENT NEAR SURFACE RH...THOUGH                 
STILL WOULD THINK THAT DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT IN              
TONIGHT WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FOR NOW              
WILL NOT ADD MENTION OF MVFR FOG AND SEE HOW LOWER DEWPOINTS                    
PROGRESS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR 06Z ISSUANCE.              
LITTLE CLOUDS TOMORROW WITH PWAT BLO 1 INCH AND PER CU RULES. PBM               
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...                                                
PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 330 PM ISSUANCE...                               
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...                                                         
QUIET WX THESE PERIODS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO LOWER GREAT                
LAKES. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS AREA BUT                 
DRYING ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE SHOULD LEAD             
ONLY TO SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AT BEST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL                
RADIATE NICELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.                 
AGREE WITH IND DISCUSSION THAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL                  
INDIANA WILL KEEP MINS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MINS IN THE             
NORTH TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE...WHILE KEEPING LOWS UP A BIT              
IN THE SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN LOWER 80S BASED ON            
EXPECTED MIXING FROM 850MB AND GUIDANCE TEMPS SUPPORT THIS.                     
LASHLEY                                                                         
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                        
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY                    
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN ON                  
SUNDAY AND WILL STALL OUT THERE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT IS NOT                    
EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING               
GFS HAS A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. THE ECMWF            
IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS BUT THE GEM IS SLOWER WITH THE                  
FRONT, NOT MOVING IT THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. PUT IN A                  
CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEX MOS HAD 30-50 POP                
ACROSS OUR CWA BUT JUST GOING WITH A 30 POP FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL THEN ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY                  
THROUGH FRIDAY. WENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY...850MB            
TEMPS ARE AROUND 19-20. BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE IN OUR EASTERN            
COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY TO MATCH UP WITH CLEVELAND AS THESE COUNTIES               
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE              
DIDN'T CHANGE TEMPS THAT MUCH. NO BIG WARM UPS EXPECTED THROUGH                 
FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY.  BML                               
.IWX...                                                                         
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
205 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION                        
TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND...AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE              
MONDAY NIGHT.                                                                   
TONIGHT...500 MB ANTICYCLONE JUST ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST                       
AREA...WITH GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ETA THIS                   
MORNING. SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER ARE MORE COMPLEX...WITH FRONT                 
MEANDERING ABOUT THE AREA AND OTHER BOUNDARIES POSSIBLY LEFT OVER               
FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING...ANY OF WHICH COULD SERVE TO FOCUS NEW            
CONVECTION TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS (RUC AND MESOETA) OFFERING                
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH RUC DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG             
A GOVE-GOODLAND-WRAY LINE WHILE THE MESOETA WOULD FAVOR EASTERN                 
ZONES. FINE LINES ON KGLD 88D SUGGEST RUC MAY BE PICKING UP ON OLD              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. WILL MONITOR              
LAST MINUTE SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS FOR FINAL DECISION ON PLACEMENT              
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING.                                           
SATURDAY...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND WILL NO LONGER BE A                 
FACTOR...LEAVING UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE AS             
PRIMARY FEATURES. ETA/GFS/NGM MOS AND RUC II INDICATING AT LEAST                
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN ZONES. DOWNSLOPE                   
COMPONENT COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER 700/850 TEMPERATURES WILL               
RESULT IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 100S EAST. CONVECTIVE               
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EXTREME WEST WHERE 700 MB THETA E               
RIDGE/850 MB CONVERGENCE/HIGHER TERRAIN COINCIDE...BUT APPEARS TOO              
SLIGHT TO WARRANT A MENTION AT THIS TIME...AS WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL              
RESULT IN SLOW MOVEMENT/LITTLE EASTWARD PROPAGATION.                            
SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN 700/850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE                  
MODELS. UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER KMCI WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW            
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOME MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FRONT               
RANGE/ADJACENT PLAINS...AND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER                
WITH STORM MOTION EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST. THIS MAY ALLOW            
AN ISOLATED STORM TO MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY                  
EVENING.                                                                        
MONDAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE STILL             
FORECAST BY ETA/GFS TO ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT...BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER LEVEL                      
DIVERGENCE WILL BE IN NEBRASKA. THUS...WILL ADJUST POPS/QPF TO                  
REFLECT A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.             
EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FIRST FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES             
AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ASSOCIATED                
WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE SOME TUESDAY MORNING              
POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE GFS SHOWS JET LEVEL                   
DIVERGENCE AT 12Z. GFS HAS ALSO HAD TWO CONSECUTIVE RUNS WITH MUCH              
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. AT LEAST THROUGH 84 HOURS ETA 500 MB            
HEIGHTS SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH SHARP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN             
PLAINS. WILL TRIM BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ABOUT A                        
CATEGORY...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE HIGH            
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE                        
ROCKIES...FLATTENING SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY. 700 MB THETA E RIDGE WILL              
BE OVER THE FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST            
EACH DAY REACHING THE KANSAS BORDER BY FRIDAY. WILL INSERT SLIGHT               
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO EACH            
DAY DURING THIS TIME...AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY...BASED             
ON A TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. 700/850 MB TEMPERATURES AND                 
HEIGHTS SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                       
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
950 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
EARLIER FOG HAS DISSIPATED ALL AREAS.  FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH                  
EASTWARD THIS MORNING.  POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX CONTINUES FOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEASTERN PART OF FORECAST              
AREA WHERE SUN WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME TO HEAT SFC AND CREATE                   
INSTABILITY.   CAPES QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NOT               
THAT STRONG.                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FCST...BUT WILL UPDATE WORDING TO REMOVE             
MORNING WX.                                                                     
JENSENIUS                                                                       
-----------------  PREVIOUS DISCUSSION  --------------------------              
DISC...STG TSTMS WL CROSS FA TDA...W/ BEST CHC FOR ISOLD SVR STMS TO            
BE OVR SERN HALF OF OUR FA WHERE BEST HEATING WL OCCUR BY MIDDAY.               
TEMPS MAY APCH RECORD HIGH OF 91 AT PWM TDA IF OFFSHORE WND                     
COMPONENT STG ENUF & DEBRIS CLDS FM CONVECTION HOLD OFF TIL MIDDAY.             
BUFKIT MDL SNDGS INDICATE ATMOS WL BCM VRY UNSTABLE ACRS PTNS OF OUR            
FA TDA W/ CAPES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG SERN ZNS W/ LIS NEAR -4.  FRZG               
LVLS FALL GRADUALLY W/ TIME EARLY THS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR VRY STEEP             
LOW LVL LAPSE RATES.  SIGNIF SPEED SHEAR CONFINED TO THE LWR LVLS AS            
BEST MID/UPR LVL JET DYNAMICS RMN N OF OUR FA.  DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS            
MARGINAL AS 2NDARY FNT WL SLOWLY FORM WELL W OF INIT FNT...CREATING             
A BROAD SHEAR ZN.                                                               
AGREE W/ SPC THAT CONVECTION WL BCM MOR ISOLD/SCT W/ TIME TDA AS                
BEST DYNAMICS RMN FURTHER N.  ALSO AGREE W/ CONCERN TO MONITOR FOR              
ROTATING TSTMS AS ISOLD SUPERCELLS ARE PSBL.  SVRL OF THE                       
AFFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS RESEMBLE ENVIRONMENTAL            
PROFILES IN A RECENT STUDY OF NRN NEW ENG SVR STORMS.  WL ADD                   
ENHANCED WORDING FOR WND ACRS SVRL ZNS.                                         
BFR WE GET AHD OF OURSELVES HWVR...WE NEED HEATING - - A LOT OF IT.             
FNT RUNNING A COUPLE HRS AHD OF SCHEDULE.  HWVR...WSW FLO ALREADY               
LIFTING SOME OF THE BR OUT OF OUR FA.  TDS STEADY OR SLOWLY ON THE              
RISE.  BND OF CS AS PER MST RECENT STLT IMAGES BFR THE ECLIPSE                  
INDICATE CLD SHIELD RMNS CLOSE TO THE CONVECTION.  XPCT SIGNIF                  
HEATING SERN ZNS TDA W/ MAX TEMPS APCHG 90F ACRS SWRN ME/SERN NH.               
THS PREDICTION FITS IN WELL W/ 00Z TAQ RUC RUN.  TEMPS WL APCH                  
RECORD HIGH OF 91F IN PWM SET BACK IN 1955.                                     
POPS WL RMN AT HIGH CHC...XCPT FOR LOW LKLY IN THE MTNS.  ETA OUT TO            
LUNCH CONCERNING FCST QPF FIELD THS MRNG.                                       
HWO PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT CHC OF SVR TSTMS.  WL SET FCST FRZG LVLS ON            
KGYX.                                                                           
TNGT...TSTMS EXIT THE CSTLN...ALG W/ PATCHY BR.  PERHAPS NOT MUCH OF            
A BRZ & BIG COOL DOWN.  2NDARY FNT FORMING NW OF OUR FA...HOLDING               
BACK REAL COOL DOWN.  WNDS ALFT NOT ALIGNED YET EITHER TO PRODUCE               
MUCH OF A BRZ.                                                                  
SAT...2NDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARVS MIDDAY.  MDLS SEEM TO BE VASTLY             
UNDERDOING POPS/CLD CVR ACRS NRN HALF OF FA.  XPCT SCT SHRA IN THS              
RCH W/ ISOLD TSTMS.  W/ RDPLY LWRG FRZG LVLS & STG UPR TROF...XPCT              
ISOLD SML HAIL RPTS FM THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS.  FURTHER S...DOWNSLOPING             
MAY HELP SITN ALG THE CST.                                                      
BREEZY CONDS DVLP LT SAT THRU SUN AS WNDS BCM ALIGNED...UPR TROF                
PASSES THE RGN...& CAA CONTS.                                                   
FROST SAT NGT?  PSBL AT HIE/BML.  MORE LATER.                                   
THU...ADDED CHC -SHRA/TSRA W/ STG WMFNT APCHG & CROSSING FA LT IN               
THE DAY.  STG WND FIELD W/ THS SYS.                                             
------------------------------------------------------------------              
MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.                                                
.GYX...                                                                         
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JENSENIUS                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
840 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...AS SFC HIGH PRES                
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME HIGH CLDS AND EVEN SOME               
SHOWERS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH                         
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE 310K SFC...BUT THESE ARE HAVING A                 
TOUGH TIME MOVING E DUE TO THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER UPPER                   
MICHIGAN. DWPTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S IN SOME            
INLAND AREAS...AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL              
COOLING TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD. MAIN UPDATE                  
CONCERNS DEAL WITH TEMPS AND POSSIBLE HIGH CLDS OVER THE WEST.                  
21Z RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW THAT THE WAA CLDS AND SHOWERS OVER MN WILL             
NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS TONIGHT AS THE DRY AIR WINS OUT                 
INITIALLY. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT SHOWERS TMRW WHEN SEEING THE             
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NRN MN...BUT THE EXTREME DRY AIR OVER THE NRN              
GREAT LAKES (PWAT AT GRB 0.71 INCH) SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY             
CONFINED TO MN TONIGHT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS              
TMRW AFTN WHEN THE BEST 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT ENTERS THE WESTERN UP.             
MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE W UP TMRW AFTN IS SIMILAR TO PROFILE OVER             
NRN MN AND NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...BUT WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS               
STRONGER. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS ARE NEEDED FOR THE FAR W               
LATE SAT AFTN. IN FACT...GUIDANCE POPS FROM THE GFS MOS(42 PCT) AND             
MET(24 PCT) AT IWD WOULD SUPPORT SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS TMRW AFTN.             
HOWEVER...WILL LET MID SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z MDL RUNS TO MAKE                
THAT DECISION.                                                                  
AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST DWPTS IN THE MID 40S-AROUND 50 WOULD SUGGEST              
TEMPS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 46 IN SOME INLAND AREAS. CURRENT FCST                
SHOWS WARMER TEMPS OVER THE FAR WEST...HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT                
CLDS WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN              
PROGGED. WILL OPT TO LOWER TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE                       
WEST...HOWEVER TEMPS ELSEWHERE LOOK QUITE GOOD WHEN LOOKING AT                  
CURRENT DWPT TRENDS. OTHERWISE...WITH DRY SFC AIR IN PLACE...AM NOT             
TOO SURE IF THERE WILL BE ANY FOG...BUT WILL KEEP IT IN WHERE                   
RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY.                                                    
ZFP UPDATE OUT BY 930 PM.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
MRD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
320 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW DEEPENING TROFS OVR ERN            
CAN AND OFF THE W COAST...WITH A BLDG RDG OVR THE WRN PLAINS/SCNTRL             
CAN IN BTWN. CWA IN DRY NW FLOW ALF BTWN THE RDG TO THE W AND THE               
TROF TO THE E. GUSTY NW SFC WND BTWN HI PRES OVR MN AND LO PRES OVR             
SE HUDSON BAY...BUT WINDS ARE NOT AS STRG AS YDAY. 12Z INL SDNG                 
QUITE DRY AND STABLE ABV SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H8 ABV WELL MIXED                  
PBL...WITH PWAT 0.70 INCH AND KINX 2. YPL SDNG SHOWS HIER LLVL MSTR             
TRAPPED BLO LWR SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H85...BUT SDNG EQUALLY DRY AND              
STABLE ABV WITH PWAT 0.62 INCH AND KINX 2. QUITE A BIT MORE CU HAS              
DVLPD OVR ONTARIO IN MOISTER LLVLS DEPICTED ON YPL SDNG AND UNDER               
MORE IMPRESSIVE CAD IN SHARPER CYC FLOW THAN OVR NE MN/CWA...WITH               
DRIER INL SNDG MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS OVHD. A PAIR OF                   
SHRTWVS OVR THE FAR W CONUS NOTED RIDING NE ON THE W SIDE OF UPR RDG            
IN THE PLAINS. THE ONE SHRTWV CRASHING ASHORE IN CA THIS MRNG IS THE            
MOST VIGOROUS OF THE TWO...AND MODELS INDICATE THESE SHRTWVS MAY                
HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR FCST LATER THIS WEEKEND. HI CLDS WELL IN                  
ADVANCE OF THESE SHRTWVS ARE ALREADY SPILLING INTO THE NRN PLAINS.              
12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS HI RH ABV H55...WITH MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR               
BLO. THE HI CLD HAS DRIFTED AS FAR E AS THE SFC HI PRES CENTER.                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS THRU SAT...THEN PCPN CHCS             
AND TIMING SAT NGT INTO EARLY NXT WEEK AS SHRTWVS TO THE W BATTER               
DOWN RDG OVR CNTRL NAMERICA.                                                    
TRANQUIL WX ON TAP TNGT...WITH SFC HI PRES RDG PROGGED TO REACH                 
CNTRL CWA BY 12Z SAT. WITH RISING HGTS ALF...XPCT HIER LLVL RH IN               
ONTARIO TO PASS MAINLY NE OF CWA. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW HI CLD OVR              
THE NRN PLAINS SPRDG E QUICKLY OVRNGT INTO THE WRN ZNS AFTR MIDNGT              
WITH INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR ADVCTN DEPICTED ON 320K SFC (H5-55)            
AS LEAD SHRTWV IN THE NRN ROCKIES INDUCES PRES FALLS IN THE PLAINS              
AND RETURN FLOW WAD ON THE BACK SIDE OF SFC HI. LIFT INCRSG BECAUSE             
ERN TROF STILL DEEPENING...WITH COLD AIR NOT RETREATING FASTER THAN             
RETURN FLOW DVLPG ALF. THE INCRS IN HI CLD WL PREVENT TEMPS FM                  
FALLING AS FAR AS MIGHT OTRW BE THE CASE WITH HI PRES CRESTING                  
OVHD...AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PTCHY FOG IN THIS AREA GIVEN             
THE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS SHOWN ON 12Z INL SDNG. ALTHOUGH THE ERN ZNS            
WL REMAIN MCLR...SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/HIER H925 NLY FLOW AS PROGGED            
BY ETA OFF THE NOW RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP SHUD PREVENT                
DECOUPLING AT MOST PLACES. HAVE OPTED TO FCST PTCHY FOG OVR THE                 
CNTRL/SE ZNS AWAY FM THE WRMG INFLUENCE OF THE LKS AND WHERE SOME               
PLACES HAVE A CHC TO DECOUPLE BEFORE PTCHY HI CLD DRIFTS OVHD LATE.             
XPCT INCRSG AND THICKENING HI CLD ON SAT W-E AS LIFT/MOISTENING                 
DEPICTED ON 310K SFC (ARND H7). HOWEVER...ETA FCST SDNGS DEPICT DRY             
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HI PRES LINGERING IN THE LLVLS...WHICH SHUD             
REMAIN DRY ENUF TO PREVENT ANY PCPN. GFS GENERATES PCPN OVR THE WRN             
ZNS...BUT LOOKS LIKE THIS PROG BASED ON CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INDUCED             
SHRTWV. PREFER DRIER ETA/NGM SOLN GIVEN DRYNESS/STABILITY OF                    
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE MAX TEMPS WL REACH ARND             
80 WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO INVRN BASE AT H8...BUT WL LWR               
FCST HI TEMPS SVRL DEGREES FM THESE VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR DCRSD                 
INSOLATION UNDER THE HI CLD. THESE CLDS WL BE THINNER OVR THE E AND             
HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS OVR THE INTERIOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE 80                
DEPICTED AS PSBL WITH FULL SUNSHINE/MIXING TO H8 FOR ERY ON ETA FCST            
SDNGS. HOWEVER...WITH A LGT N/WEAK GRADIENT FLOW TO FAVOR LK BREEZE             
FORMATION...ALLOWED FOR LWR TEMPS NR LKSHORES.                                  
AS HI PRES RDG DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE SE SAT NGT...MODELS SHOW                    
DEEPENING WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. ETA INDICATES H85            
SW WNDS JUST TO THE SW INCRSG TO 40+KT...BUT GFS IS MUCH WEAKER.                
ETA/GFS GENERATE QPF OVR THE W HALF OF CWA. ALTHOUGH LLVL DRYNESS OF            
AIRMASS IN PLACE WL HAMPER CHCS FOR PCPN...WL FCST CHC POPS W OF                
MQT-MNM GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF WAD AND SHARP H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS                  
DEPICTED IN NOSE OF ETA FCST LLJ. ANTECEDENT STABILITY WL PREVENT               
TOO MUCH DESTABILIZATION...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF              
TSRA OVR THE WRN ZNS GIVEN GFS/ETA FCST SI ARND 0/KINX TO 35 IN                 
THOSE LOCATIONS. DESPITE XPCTD OVC AND SW FLOW...DRY LLVLS AND                  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAP COOLING WITH PCPN OVR THE W HALF MAKE FOR A             
TRICKY MIN TEMPS FCST. WL COMPROMISE BTWN LWR NGM/AVN MOS GUIDANCE              
AND HIER ETA MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS.                                              
STRGR SHRTWV COMING ASHORE IN CA PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK ACRS               
TOP OF RDG IN CAN ON SUN...WITH A SFC TROF MOVG ACRS THE CWA. ETA               
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WL TREND             
TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS/UKMET/CNDN TIMING FOR TROF PASSAGE AND UPR LVL            
DRYING GIVEN DEEPENING UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM TROFS. DESPITE HIGH                  
THICKNESS AOA 570DM FCST...GFS SUGS ABUNDANT CLD COVER WL HOLD DOWN             
MAX TEMPS AND ANY SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WL INCLUDE               
MENTION OF ELEVATED TSRA OVR WRN 2/3 OF CWA...WHERE GFS SHOWS SSI               
FALLING BLO 0 AND H85 DWPT REACHING 15C BEFORE UPR LVL DRYING                   
ARRIVES TOWARD EVNG. GIVEN GREATER EXTENT OF CLD COVER...WL FOLLOW              
LWR NGM/AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX.                                               
BOTH GFS/ETA NOW SHOW HI PRES RDG BLDG INTO UPR GRT LKS SUN NGT/MON             
IN WAKE OF SHRTWV PASSAGE. SO HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE POPS DURG THESE              
PDS WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALF...GFS SHOWS KINX FALLING BLO 0 OVR             
MOST OF CWA BY 12Z MON. APPEARS DRYING WL BE MAINLY IN THE UPR                  
LVLS...SO HAVE ADDED PTCHY FOG OVR THE WRN ZNS LATE AT NGT WITH CLRG            
AND LGT WNDS CLOSER TO THE SFC HI CENTER. INCOMING AIRMASS DOES NOT             
APPEAR TO BE OVERLY COOL WITH H100-5 THKNS REMAINING ARND 570DM...              
SO GFS FCST MINS ARND 60 LOOK RSNBL...AS LO AS 55 OVR THE INTERIOR              
WCNTRL. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON MON AND H85 TEMPS RISING            
AOA 15C...LOOK FOR MAX TO REACH THE 80S OVR INTERIOR AREAS AWAY FM              
LK BREEZES THAT WL FORM WITH RATHER FLAT GRADIENT OVHD.                         
EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE FALLING HGTS OVR THE UPR GRT LKS              
EARLY NXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHRTWVS BATTERS DOWN THE UPR RDG THAT             
BLDS OVR THE WEEKEND. THERE APPEARS TO BE RSNBL AGREEMENT AMONG                 
MODELS ON A SGNFT COLD FROPA MON NGT/TUE MRNG. WL MAINTAIN GOING CHC            
SHRA/TSRA MON NGT/TUE FOR THIS FROPA FOLLOWED BY COOLER/DRIER WX FOR            
LATE TUE/WED. WL CONT CHC POPS ON THU WITH REINFORCING SHRTWV                   
DROPPING S TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THE ERN TROF...THEN DRIER BUT EVEN                
COOLER FOR NXT FRI. IN GENERAL...BLO AVG TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH            
UPR HGTS FALLING BLO NORMAL.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER                     
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.  NOT NEARLY AS BIG A PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT               
TODAY AS YESTERDAY AS ALL ITS UPPER SUPPORT HAS OUTRUN IT.  THE                 
WATER VAPOR LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE 500MB RIDGE IS ALREADY              
STARTING TO RECOVER FROM YESTERDAY'S SHORT WAVE...AND RUC DATA                  
SUPPORTS THIS.  HIGH REZ VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING                
STEADILY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AS A CLEARING OF THE             
MILKY HAZE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS LOOKS TO BE A REINFORCING SHOT              
OF DRYER AIR FROM THE NORTH...AND THERE'S EVEN SOME COLD ADVECTION              
CU FORMING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SURFACE WIND             
FIELDS ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH MOST STATIONS COMING IN UNDER              
10KTS.  MY FIRST IMPRESSION IS THAT THE FRONT IS DONE...OR NEARLY               
DONE MOVING SOUTH.                                                              
THE ETA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH ME WHERE THE GFS CONTINUES SHOVING THE              
FRONT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.  WOULD EXPECT A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHWARD                
TRAVEL TONIGHT...BUT I DON'T SEE IT GETTING MUCH PAST THE MO/AR                 
BORDER.  BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS DO KEEP US IN EASTERLY OR                     
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY...WHICH ISN'T EXACTLY A WARMUP                  
WIND.  THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA                
WHERE IT SHOULD BE PRETTY TOASTY ON SUNDAY...WIND BECOMES MORE                  
SOUTHERLY AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY JUMP BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S                  
ACROSS THE AREA.  THE THERMAL RIDGE DROPS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY ON                 
MONDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK.  SOUTHWEST            
WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 850MB THERMAL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS               
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS ACCORDING TO BOTH MODELS                
SHOULD HELP TEMPS UP INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERN                   
AREAS.  NO PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE 5940M 500MB RIDGE BUILDS IN             
AND SITS ON US.                                                                 
EXTENDED...                                                                     
WEAK TROF WHICH YESTERDAY'S GFS WAS ADVERTISING FOR TUESDAY HAS                 
MORPHED INTO A REAL COLD FRONT.  THIS LOOKS LIKE THE PRECURSOR TO               
OUR PATTERN SHIFT FROM TYPICAL HUGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AN             
WESTERN CONUS TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN...WHICH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO            
SHOW.  THE ETA IS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST AND SOUTHEAST             
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PARENT LOW WAY UP              
IN CANADA.  THE GFS THOUGH DEVELOPS A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW/TROF              
WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS.  REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD               
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION KICKING UP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BY             
18Z MONDAY.  THIS SHOULD GET THE FRONTOGENESIS GOING AND PUSH OUR               
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST.  WILL LATCH ON TO THE GFS AND GO WITH IT AS A             
GOOD STARTING POINT...AND KEEP OUR CHANCE FOR THUNDER GOING                     
TUESDAY.  WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS AT LEAST QUIETER THAN                  
TUESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES              
SINCE THE FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THAT VICINITY.  WAS TEMPTED TO KEEP             
CHANCE POPS GOING DOWN THERE FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LATEST                     
ITERATION OF THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.  WILL             
HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN'T SLOW THE FRONT DOWN.  GFS            
IS STILL TAKING US INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST.             
MOS LOWERS TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR             
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT AS MOS HAS BEEN TOO COOL AS OF LATE WENT              
ABOUT A CAT HIGHER.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE                                                                      
.IL...NONE                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CARNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                     
STORY OF THE DAY IS WHERE WILL BEST CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BE. 12Z                
MANUAL ANALYSIS PLACED COLD FRONT PAST THE EASTERN SHORE OF LK                  
ONTARIO AND PAST THE ROC-BUF METRO AREAS WHICH CONCURS WITH NCEP                
PLACEMENT. SOME OF OUR MESONET AWS SITES IN THE FINGER LAKES ALSO               
HAD WIND SHIFTING TO A WLY DIRECTION AT 13Z...SO FRONT MOVING THRU              
FINGER LAKES NOW. PRE-FRONTAL TROF WAS DRAPED OVER THE WRN CATS AND             
NE PA. ATMOS ALREADY MDTLY UNSTABLE DUE TO HIGH SFC BASED DWPTS AND             
SOME COOLING ALOFT FROM PASSING TROF TO OUR NORTH. ADDL HEATING WILL            
COOK THINGS UP ESPLY FOR OUR SERN AREAS AND MODIFIED ALY SOUNDING               
GETS CAPES TO 2500+ TWD MID AFTERNOON. RUC CAPE AT SWF IS NEAR 3000             
J/KG AT ABOUT 1 PM.                                                             
06Z ETA RUN HAD GOOD MASS FIELD PROGS AT 12Z...AND LATEST RUC IN                
AGREEMENT SO FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES BY NOON. COLD                
THETA-E ADVECTIONS AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM                 
POTENTIAL THESE AREAS (AND MAYBE EVEN PLAIN OLD SHOWERS)...BUT FRONT            
WILL MEET UP WITH TROF OVER OUR SERN ZONES. UPPER SUPPORT WITH FRONT            
IS LACKING AND THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE WEAK NVA OVER MOST OF THE                 
AREA...BUT LLVL MOIST CONVG AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PROGGED BY             
RUC SOUNDINGS AT SWF AND AVP WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCT-NUMEROUS                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES. MIDLVL WIND                
FIELDS ARE WEAK AND BULK SHEAR VALUES MINIMAL...BUT VERY HIGH ENERGY            
POTENTIAL CAN OVERCOME THE WIND ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED                
CONVECTION. EXPECT THAT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL BE THE INITIATION              
AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF THE SERIOUS                
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HANDED OVER TO ALY/OKX/PHI AND NEW ENGLAND             
OFCS. STILL...DELWARE/PIKE/SULLIVAN AND POSSIBLY LACKAWANNA AND                 
LUZERNE HAVE A SHOT FOR ISOLD PULSE SVR MICROBURSTS AND MARGINAL                
LARGE HAIL SO I'LL BE ISSUING A SEVERE WX OUTLOOK FOR THOSE                     
AREAS...WHICH IS VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC SWODY1. THE "SHOW"             
SHOULD BE OVER PRETTY QUICK BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EXPECT AREA TO BE             
PRECIP FREE BY 5 OR 6 PM...THEN SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BREWSTER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
845 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AND LATEST RUC DOES NOT FAVOR               
ANY REDEVELOPMENT UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS UPPER TROF BEGINS TO             
EDGE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SFC FRONT SLIDES DOWN FROM THE                   
NORTH. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GOING FORECAST TO DROP PCPN MOST AREAS              
THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE                  
TONIGHT AS LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY               
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.                                 
MARINE...ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST IS TO DROP ISOLATED SHOWERS                
AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK.                                        
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
MF/WS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
810 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.                           
UPDATED FCST EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER.                
KMVX SHOWS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT MOST OF THE PCPN IS JUST               
SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.  BASES OF THE SHOWERS ARE AOA 8000FT              
AND WITH DRY AIR AT THE SFC SOME EVAPORATION OCCURING BEFORE                    
REACHING THE GROUND.  RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS AREA OF STRONG 700 MB TEMP             
ADVECTION OVER CENTRAL ND FEEDING SHOWER ACTION.  BISMARCK/MINOT                
RADARS SHOWS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FORM BTWN DVL/MOT AND MOVE EAST              
AND LIKELY SEE THIS CONTINUE TIL 06Z.                                           
AFTER 06Z...WARM ADVECTION DROPS DOWN TO 850 MB LEVEL WITH VERY                 
STRONG 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION/SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT                      
(SHOWALTERS) AND UPSTREAM 40-50KT JET SETTING THE STAGE FOR                     
ELEVATED CONVECTION.  FAVORABLE LEFT QUAD OF 85H JET TOO OUR WEST               
HOWEVER ACCORDING TO RUC SO DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OUT IN BISMARCK AREA             
AND THEN HEADING EAST.  12Z ETA 22 KM FRITSCH/KAIN CONVECTION MODEL             
AVBL ON THE WEB SHOWS PCPN DEVELOPMENT JAMESTOWN AREA 06-09Z...THEN             
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST TOWARD FAR/GFK AND NW MN              
09Z-12Z.  INTENSITY OF WARM ADVECTION AND JET WOULD POINT TO SOME               
ELEVATED SVR CELLS WITH HAIL PSBL.  HWO UPDATED EARLIER THIS AFTN               
FOR THIS.  LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL NOT PUT SVR IN              
ZONES.  GOING FCST HAD TSTM COVERAGE HANDELED WELL LATE TONIGHT.                
WILL EXAMINE ANY MODEL DATA AND OBS AT 9 PM AND SEND UPDATE OUT                 
AFTERWARDS.                                                                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
555 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
MID CLOUDS ASSOC WITH 700 MB WARM ADVECTION CAUSING INCREASING                  
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME NEW THUNDER AT 2245Z JUST EAST OF FARGO. WILL             
NEED TO UPDATE AND ADD EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST             
ALL BUT SE ND WHICH IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS.  REVIEW OF            
RUC/18Z ETA SHOWS ALL LOOKING GOOD FOR BIGGER STORMS AFT 06Z AS WARM            
ADVECTION LOWERS TO 850 MB.                                                     
------------------------------------------------------------                    
PREV AFD                                                                        
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND TEMPS                                 
.OVERVIEW...                                                                    
SFC HIGH MOVING EAST AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING            
EDGE OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO AREA. MODELS IN FAIRLY              
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH ETA A BIT FASTER WITH INFLUX OF                   
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ETA INITIALIZED A            
LITTLE BETTER AND MATCHES UP BETTER WITH RUC MODEL THROUGH 03Z                  
TONIGHT SO WILL UTILIZE WITH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL.                       
.TONIGHT...                                                                     
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON 315K SFC AFTER 06Z INTO        
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...MOVING TO JUST NORTHEAST OF GFK BY 12Z                
SAT. THIS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND                 
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO OVER 1.60 INCHES. SHOWALTERS ALSO             
DESTABILIZE TO AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHEAST ND AFTER 06Z. WILL MENTION             
SCATTERED THUNDER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.                 
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION                 
INCREASES ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO MIX BOUNDARY LAYER.             
EXPECT COOLEST READINGS IN EAST CLOSE TO DEPARTING HIGH. WILL                   
FRESHEN UP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF A FEW            
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT.                  
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                     
STRONG CAP DEVELOPS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR                 
+14C...WITH SOME MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERING EAST OF VALLEY.          
EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH LOW/MID 90S IN SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 80 IN                 
NORTHEAST. CAP WILL WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN SAT NIGHT            
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION INTO SUNDAY             
AND MOVE ACTIVITY EAST BY 00Z MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDER COMES              
ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR            
BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY FOR ENTIRE AREA                
LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF FRONT.                     
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
EXTENDED MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTIALLY WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE            
BREAKING DOWN CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. MODELS THEN SPLIT BETWEEN EITHER            
MID LEVEL ZONAL OR NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.                   
FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SHOULD SEE COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE. CANADIAN...UK AND TO EXTENT GFS STILL BRINGING SOME SORT              
OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. PCPN IN FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AND SEE              
NO REASON TO ALTER ATTM. COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MOST OF              
UPCOMING WEEK BASED ON THERMAL COLUMN AND THICKNESS. WILL NEED TO               
LOWER TEMPS SOME THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
KELLENBENZ/VOELKER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
223 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION AND TEMPS                                 
.OVERVIEW...                                                                    
SFC HIGH MOVING EAST AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEADING            
EDGE OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO AREA. MODELS IN FAIRLY              
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH ETA A BIT FASTER WITH INFLUX OF                   
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND GFS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER. ETA INITIALIZED A            
LITTLE BETTER AND MATCHES UP BETTER WITH RUC MODEL THROUGH 03Z                  
TONIGHT SO WILL UTILIZE WITH NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE OVERALL.                       
.TONIGHT...                                                                     
IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION ON 315K SFC AFTER 06Z INTO        
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA...MOVING TO JUST NORTHEAST OF GFK BY 12Z                
SAT. THIS LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH 50KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET AND                 
PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASING TO OVER 1.60 INCHES. SHOWALTERS ALSO             
DESTABILIZE TO AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHEAST ND AFTER 06Z. WILL MENTION             
SCATTERED THUNDER MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.                 
TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHTS...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION                 
INCREASES ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO MIX BOUNDARY LAYER.             
EXPECT COOLEST READINGS IN EAST CLOSE TO DEPARTING HIGH. WILL                   
FRESHEN UP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION POSSIBILITY OF A FEW            
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL EVENTS WITH STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT.                  
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                                     
STRONG CAP DEVELOPS BY 18Z SATURDAY AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR                 
+14C...WITH SOME MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION LINGERING EAST OF VALLEY.          
EXPECT A WARM DAY WITH LOW/MID 90S IN SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 80 IN                 
NORTHEAST. CAP WILL WEAKEN AS MID LEVEL LAPS RATES STEEPEN SAT NIGHT            
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE THUNDER MENTION INTO SUNDAY             
AND MOVE ACTIVITY EAST BY 00Z MONDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDER COMES              
ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR            
BEHIND FRONT. THEREFORE...THUNDER CHANCES MONDAY FOR ENTIRE AREA                
LOOKS GOOD WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF FRONT.                     
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
EXTENDED MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT INTIALLY WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE            
BREAKING DOWN CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. MODELS THEN SPLIT BETWEEN EITHER            
MID LEVEL ZONAL OR NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.                   
FOLLOWING FROPA EARLY SHOULD SEE COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WITH HIGH                   
PRESSURE. CANADIAN...UK AND TO EXTENT GFS STILL BRINGING SOME SORT              
OF BOUNDARY THROUGH MIDWEEK. PCPN IN FCST FOR THIS FEATURE AND SEE              
NO REASON TO ALTER ATTM. COOLDOWN STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH MOST OF              
UPCOMING WEEK BASED ON THERMAL COLUMN AND THICKNESS. WILL NEED TO               
LOWER TEMPS SOME THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
KELLENBENZ/VOELKER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
800 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
CURRENT SURFACE MAP HAS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST                     
MONTANA...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.             
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUE              
TO HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE CWA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG              
THE WARM FRONT HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED. 18Z ETA/00Z RUC INDICATE THAT              
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE             
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP               
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE             
ON THE SITUATION.                                                               
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
950 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
A HOT AND WINDY DAY IS IN STORE AS A 850/700 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND               
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS. 12Z UPPER             
AIR AND RUC DATA SUGGESTED TEMPERATURES MIGHT GET A BIT WARMER THAN             
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT US FROM                  
HEATING TO OUR FULL POTENTIAL (SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY). WATER VAPOR               
IMAGES DID SHOW A WAVE MOVING THROUGH WRN WY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.             
THIS MAY HELP IN DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR WRN            
CWFA THIS AFTN AND EVNG...ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING IN                
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHEAR WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL...AND               
FREEZING LEVELS QUITE HIGH...SO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE             
MAIN THREAT (IF ANY SEVERE DOES OCCUR).                                         
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BUNKERS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
900 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND                  
THIS WILL MEET A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. PRECIPITATION               
WILL BE OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO TONIGHT AND LAST INTO           
SATURDAY MORNING. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH             
SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE                     
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING MAINLY                   
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION            
ON MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.TONIGHT...THE RELATIVELY DRY OFFSHORE TROF CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW              
INROADS THROUGH THE PAC NW THIS EVENING...WHILE A MUCH SOGGIER                  
SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHEAST FROM EC OREGON. AT 0330Z THE PAC NW TROF                
SEEMS TO HAVE PUSHED INTO NW WASHINGTON WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR               
FINALLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES PER THE LATEST OBS FROM                       
ELLENSBURG AND THE LAKE CHELAN AREA. THIS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR             
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...EFFECTIVELY ENDING               
THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SKIES             
SHOULD EXHIBIT A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS WELL. FARTHER EAST...THE             
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE MOISTURE LADEN AS HIGH PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO STREAM NNE AHEAD OF THE OREGON SHORTWAVE.              
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE PLACEMENT              
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS PLACES THE BEST THREAT OF                        
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT SOUTH OF A SILVER VALLEY TO A BLUE MOUNTAIN               
LINE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESERVED FOR LEWSITON...THE CAMAS                  
PRAIRIE...BLUE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SHOSHONE COUNTY. NOT TOO                  
CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE THUNDER IN THIS REGION PER THE LATEST              
RUC DTHETA-E/DZ PROGS...HOWEVER THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY                
WILL LIE JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO WE WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST             
JUST IN CASE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER THE                                
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AN INCH                   
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINS...WILL LIKELY                       
ACCUMULATE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TOTALS ABOVE .50                 
INCHES BY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO PANHANDLE. THE SOGGY                   
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH LIGHT VALLEY WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME                
VALLEY FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED                    
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 055/078/049/078/049/080 410110                                              
COE 057/076/047/076/046/079 510110                                              
PUW 053/075/046/074/044/079 510110                                              
LWS 063/081/056/081/052/085 710110                                              
CQV 054/080/047/080/047/084 410110                                              
SPT 059/077/046/077/045/080 520110                                              
WWP 059/074/047/073/045/073 720220                                              
MWH 059/083/050/082/050/084 110110                                              
EAT 059/083/054/082/053/082 -10110                                              
OMK 055/084/048/082/050/083 -10110                                              
.OTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
330 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                     
...MORE OF THE SAME...                                                          
REALLY...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN STORE FOR TODAY'S WEATHER...SAVE FOR               
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS              
AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  ACCORDING TO THE RUC ANALYSIS...THE MAIN UPPER            
HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED EAST...WELL EAST...OF COLORADO OVER THE                 
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL INCLINES OF A                  
SECONDARY UPPER HIGH CENTER THAT SHOW UP OVER COLORADO...NEAR THE 4             
CORNERS REGION...FROM TIME TO TIME.  SATELLITE PICTURES...FOR THE               
2ND NIGHT IN A ROW...INDICATE A HEALTHY MONSOON PLUME OVER EASTERN              
UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. WITH THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTED EAST             
INTO THE PLAINS...THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MAY SEE A                   
LITTLE BETTER SHOT AT SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE MONSOON                
PLUME CREEPS THIS WAY.  HOWEVER...WITHOUT AN OBVIOUS TRIGGER...THE              
PLAINS FARTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER...LOOK               
LIKE THEY SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY THIS                
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  CURRENT POPS IN GRIDS COVER THIS SCENARIO WELL              
SO REALLY NO CHANGES NEEDED.  HOWEVER...WILL BOOST THE EL PASO                  
COUNTY POP A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ALIGN WITH BOU                 
GRIDS PER CHAT/COORDINATION CALL THIS MORNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN              
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST UNDER BETTER ORGANIZED/MORE INTENSE            
CELLS...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DUE TO THE MONSOON PLUME OVER              
THE MOUNTAINS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH.  KGJT REPORTED 154% OF NORMAL             
LAST NIGHT AT 00Z...WITH KDEN REPORTING 147% OF NORMAL.  THE FARTHER            
WEST YOU GO INTO THE MONSOON PLUME...THE MORE MOISTURE THERE IS TO              
REALIZE.  AT 12Z YESTERDAY...KGJT REPORTED A WHOPPING 170% OF                   
NORMAL WITH 1.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE IN THE                  
ATMOSPHERE...NOT BAD FOR AN ARID GREAT BASIN SITE.  KTAD GAVE US AN             
EXAMPLE OF THE POTENTIAL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THE SITE PICKED UP               
1.31 IN THE COURSE OF 2 HOURS BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM...WITH THE MAJORITY            
OF IT (1.13 INCHES) FALLING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.  THIS TYPE OF                   
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LONG AS THE                    
MONSOON PLUME STAYS ACTIVE.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...STILL DON'T            
SEE ANY REAL BIG COOLING (DESPITE THE CONTINUED STRONG COOLING                  
INDICATED BY GUIDANCE).  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST COOLING AT             
H7 BUT NO CHANGE AT H5.  SEEMS LIKE THE H7 VALUES HAVE BEEN MORE                
FICKLE LATELY (PROBABLY BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK)...WITH           
THE H5 VALUES A MORE RELIABLE INDICATOR OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE.  SO              
I WILL USE THE H5 TEMPS AS GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE H7 TEMPS.  ONE              
FINAL NOTE...COULD GET A BIT BREEZY ON THE PLAINS TODAY...AS A                  
COMBINATION A SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...AND GOOD                
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD "KICK UP THE DUST" A LITTLE. LW              
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY).                            
ISSUE THIS CYCLE HINGES ON CHANGING MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO               
THE POTENTIAL NORTHERLY SURGE(S) FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.  LATEST                 
LONGER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE WITH EARLIER THEME OF CENTER OF UPPER              
RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF CWFA MAJORITY OF UPCOMING WEEK WITH UPPER               
RIDGE OVER MISSOURI SUNDAY WHICH THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS            
BY NEXT TUESDAY AND THEN REMAINS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                
UNITED STATES THROUGH LATE WEEK.                                                
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...LATEST GFS HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON PREVIOUSLY              
DEPICTED HEALTHY MONDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND NOW HAS NEXT                  
HEALTHY SURGE NOT COMING THROUGH UNTIL NEXT THURSDAY.  LATEST 84 HOUR           
ETA ONLY HINTS AT A WEAK SURGE ATTEMPTING TO ENTER FAR NORTHEAST                
COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY.                                                        
SO WILL BEGIN ADJUSTING GRIDS/ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR A LESS AGGRESSIVE            
TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT MONDAY NIGHT SURGE...WHICH MEANS THAT                    
TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARD AS WELL AS SOME                  
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS. WILL ALSO TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP FOR SURROUNDING            
DAYS.                                                                           
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...WILL GENERALLY            
KEEP INHERITED POPS AS MOISTURE TAP IS NEVER FAR AWAY AND AT                    
TIMES RIGHT OVERHEAD CWFA AS UPPER HIGH MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE             
REGION TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.                            
NEXT CONCERN IS HOW MUCH FAITH TO PUT INTO GFS PROJECTED THURSDAY               
NIGHT SURGE. SINCE THIS IS AROUND DAY 6...WILL KEEP A WARY EYE ON               
THIS POSSIBILITY...WHICH IF IN FACT IF IT COMES TO PASS WILL ALLOW A            
CHANGE TO A MUCH COOLER WEATHER REGIME BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT                   
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ONLY SLIGHTLY FOR            
NEXT FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.                                     
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI                                                  
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
.TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                  
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. IT IS THESE              
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT WILL MAKE IT OR BREAK IT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL            
SLIDE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION WHICH IS NORTH OF LAKE                      
OKEECHOBEE. JUST HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL SLIDE IS THE AGONIZING                   
QUESTION. GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE WIND FIELD                 
PATTERN WITH ANY ACCURACY SO THIS WILL BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE. BY               
06Z, MESO-ETA AND RUC BOTH HAD WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE                   
ATLANTIC WHILE GFS HAD EAST-SOUTHEAST WHICH AT 04Z BUOYS WERE 100.              
SO WITH THAT IN MIND, I THINK MAYBE MESO-ETA AND RUC PUSH RIDGE AXIS            
SOUTH A LITTLE TOO FAST. ALL IN ALL, WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND                    
VARIABLE TODAY BUT DEPENDING ON IF STEERING FLOW REMAINS NEAR CALM              
OR GOES WESTERLY AS MESO-ETA AND RUC SHOW WILL DETERMINE WHERE                  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES. WILL GO WITH GFS POPS FOR              
ABOVE REASONINGS WHICH STILL IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE                
INDICATED. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OR              
DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AGAIN.                                                      
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                       
FOR THE TIME BEING, DEPRESSION #9 HAS GONE BACK TO AN OPEN WAVE AND             
THUS WILL NEED TO BACK OFF ON EXTENDED WINDS. OF COURSE, THIS COULD             
ALL CHANGE AGAIN IF IT REGENERATES AND MODEL GUIDANCE OF LITTLE HELP            
AT THIS POINT AS THEY ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE.                                   
.MARINE...                                                                      
SEAS NEARLY FLAT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGE ON TOP OF OUR CWA              
BUT THEN PICK UP A LITTLE AS RIDGE MOVES NORTH AND WAVE APPROACHES              
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BUT AS STATED ABOVE, WILL BACK OFF ON                 
SPEEDS BUT GULF STREAM WATERS WILL STILL BE ADVISORY CRITERIA.                  
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                                                       
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS                                                             
PBI BB 090/076 090/077 089 305252                                               
FLL BB 090/080 089/080 089 304252                                               
MIA BB 091/078 090/079 090 304252                                               
APF BB 090/075 090/076 090 304242                                               
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.                       
MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT...BUT THE AVN HAS A MUCH STRONGER VORT MAX               
AT 500MB IN CENTRAL ND AT 06Z. IT TAKES THIS FEATURE EAST THROUGH               
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  THE RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORT MORE               
OF A ETA SOLUTION.                                                              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER CWA THIS MORNING. THIS                    
ACTIVITY DUE IN PART TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEITHER THE ETA NOR           
THE AVN MODELS SHOW ANY QPF OVER OUR CWA NOW. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. STRONG WARM AIR                 
ADVECTION TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING. LOW                
LEVEL JET ALSO DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 35-40KT AT 850MB BY 00Z           
SUN.                                                                            
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET...THETA-E RIDGE...INCREASING INSTABILITY AND            
COLD FRONT WILL ALL COMBINE TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. I             
UPPED THE POPS SOME TONIGHT.                                                    
SUNDAY...FRONT CONTINUES EAST AND WILL END RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO            
EAST.                                                                           
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE WARMER ETA MOS NUMBERS TODAY.                           
COORD WITH FGF.                                                                 
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
952 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...PLENTY OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING. BASED ON VISIBLE                 
SATELLITE TRENDS, LAST ZONES TO SEE THE FOG LIFT WILL BE THOSE                  
BORDERNG THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC                   
ANALYSES SHOWS A VORT LOBE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN             
VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DOING THE SAME. A STATIONARY LOW                    
PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND S OF MOB. THE ETA DOES NOT SEEM TO BE                  
HANDLING THIS LATTER FEATURE ALL THAT WELL. FOR THAT REASON, BELIEVE            
IT IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE TROUGH SWD TODAY. THE GFS                  
RESOLVES THE SURFACE LOW BEST AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. 12Z             
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED THE PW IS STILL WELL OVER 2 INCHES. GRANTED,               
DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE KBMX AND KFFC SOUNDINGS, BUT WE BELIEVE             
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THIS MAKES IT SWD INTO OUR            
FL ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, BELIEVE OUR LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE            
SW TO W MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK UPPER                  
SUPPORT TO PROVIDE FOR GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WITH                   
SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION N OF THE BORDER.                                       
.UPDATE...WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING. AT THAT TIME,              
WE MAY TWEAK POPS 10 PERCENT HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF               
HIGHER POPS SE AND LOWER N LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS            
WELL. MOS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR TODAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT,             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE DAY.                                            
.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                                   
WOOL                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
*****************************************************************               
215 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL USA WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING S INTO             
THE SE USA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. W/V AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
DECENT DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN 1.5" PRECIPITABLE             
WATER (PWAT) RECORDED IN THE 23/00Z FFC/BMX RAOBS. 04Z SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED S-SW OF PENSACOLA.            
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST OFF OUR               
WRN COAST THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF THE LOW.                              
RECAP...FRIDAY WAS INDEED DISTURBED...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE OF                  
PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER OUR AL/GA                
ZONES. THUS...POPS WERE A BIT OVERDONE FOR THE FL ZONES.                        
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY...MODELS AGREE ON DRIER NLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO              
WORK S INTO OUR CWFA...WHILE REGION OF WLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB GETS               
PUSHED OFFSHORE. EVEN THOUGH THINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TO SYNOPTICALLY             
FORCED TO FIT INTO OUR LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY...WE STILL WOULD             
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR FL ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS              
THIS...AND DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY.                               
SUNDAY...MEAN FLOW BELOW 700 MB BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE OUT OF THE            
NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DROP OF AROUND 0.2" PWAT AND               
MID LEVEL WARMING. THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN FL BIG               
BEND WHERE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAXIMUM                     
TEMPERATURES INLAND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER.                                  
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.                       
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS.                                                                    
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 89 73 92 72 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
PFN 89 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
DHN 89 73 91 74 / 40 20 30 10                                                   
ABY 90 73 91 72 / 40 20 20 10                                                   
VLD 89 72 93 71 / 60 20 30 10                                                   
CTY 88 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
918 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WITHIN AREA OF 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE               
AND AREA OF ENHANCED 250MB WINDS CURRENTLY GENERATING A FEW                     
THUNDERSTORMS. RUC PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND HAS ACTIVITY                      
DECREASING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...REFLECTED WELL IN             
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY.                                                          
HAVE BUMPED UP THE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON 00Z AND 12Z MODEL               
850 TEMP FORECASTS AND THEIR VARIOUS BIAS'. THIS WOULD SUGGEST                  
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S WEST TO NEAR 103 OR SO EAST.            
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY TODAY ARE YUMA (99 DEGREES)...GOODLAND                      
(101)...MCCOOK (103)...AND HILL CITY (104 DEGREES). HAVE ADDED                  
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WORDING ACCORDINGLY.                                      
ONLY OTHER UPDATE ITEM THIS MORNING WAS TO INCREASE THE WINDS.                  
CURRENTLY HAVE GUSTS TO 27 KTS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND EXPECT THESE              
WINDS TO INCREASE IN BOTH SPEED AND AREAL COVERAGE. BUMPED UP ALL               
BUT EASTERN THIRD OF AREA TO WINDY CATEGORY AND EASTERN THIRD TO                
BREEZY.                                                                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA                             
1100 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                     
WILL NOT UPDATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH RESERVATIONS. PERHAPS                
OVERTHINKING SITUATION...BUT HAVE SOME OVER-RIDING CONCERNS FOR THIS            
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.                                               
CLOSE SCRUTINY OF 12Z ANALYSIS REVEALS OUR CWA PLACED IN CLOSE                  
PROXIMITY TO SOME FORM OF TROUGH AND CONVERGENGE FEATURES AT ALL                
MANDATORY LEVELS...IN SOME FORM OR FASHION. AT H25...A DEFORMATION              
AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR KBHM...ACROSS LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...INTO GULF             
OFF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. H50 TROUGH IS DISPLACED FARTHER EAST AS              
EXTENSION OF SYNOPTIC TROUGH ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD. H70 TROUGH IS              
INVERTED FEATURE FROM MOBILE BAY TO NEAR KBVE AND MOVING UNDER                  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS. THE H85 TROUGH IS ONCE               
AGAIN AN INVERTED FEATURE EXTENDING FROM POPLARVILLE...ACROSS LAKE              
PONTCHARTAIN TO LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH. H925 IS A WELL PRONOUNCED              
INVERTED TROUGH FROM VICKSBURG TO LOWER TERREBONNE. WHILE SOME OF               
THESE FEATURES INDEPENDENTLY WOULD SERVE AS INHIBITORS FOR                      
RAINFALL...OTHERS WOULD FAVOR SUCH.                                             
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED AN ACCAS FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN                      
MISSISSIPPI THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY ALOFT THAT                
COULD ENHANCE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AFTER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE            
IS EXCEEDED. MSAS INDICATES CYCLONICALLY INDUCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
AROUND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE             
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MSAS ALSO SHOWS SURFACE BASED LI'S              
FALLING OFF STEADILY INTO THE -7 AND -8 RANGE OVER THE LAKE                     
PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN. MUCH OF THIS EXPLANATION POINTS TO PRE-MCS                 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND SHOULD WARRANT CONSIDERATIONS FOR                  
HIGHER POPS.                                                                    
THERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A            
P.W. OF 2.18" AND UNMODIFIED LI OF -6.  RAN THE PRECIPATION                     
CALCULATOR AND RICKS INDEX SCHEME AND RECIEVED SURPRISING OUTPUT FOR            
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...THUS THE CONCERNS FOR RAIN CHANCES. USING A             
345K LIFT FROM 878MB YIELDED A POP 80%...DP 37MB...PCPN 0.76"...                
POTENTIAL PCPN 3.41" FOR TEMP BELOW 74F...FMAP 0.82"...RICKS INDEX              
129...PROB SEVERE 0%...GUSTS 42-52KT (49-61MPH)...HAIL 0.67"                    
(MARBLE)...TOR NIL. HAVE DIFFICULTIES DISCOUNTING THESE RESULTS AS              
THE TRACK RECORD FOR THIS TECHNIQUE IS PRETTY GOOD. USING THE NEW               
EXPERIMENTAL HAIL-VIL SCHEME FOR HAIL SIZES SHOWS A SOUNDING VIL OF             
47...ARKANSAS VIL OF THE DAY 63...PEA 44...MARBLE 46...PENNY                    
48...NICKEL 50...QUARTER 52...HALF DOLLAR 54...2" DIA 56...3" DIA 58.           
THESE ARE VERY LOW VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR SO VILS WILL                
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MARGINALLY                  
SUGGESTIVE OF HAIL DEVELOPMENT. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HAIL FROM               
STRONGER STORMS IN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                           
HAVING SAID ALL OF THIS...WILL RESERVE UPDATE OF ZONES TO MAINTAIN              
ONLY 30 PERCENT POPS AND SEE WHAT UNFOLDS IN THE UPCOMING HOURS.                
THERE ARE A FEW CONS TO THE ARGUMENT THAT IS THROWING UNCERTAINTY               
INTO THIS THINKING BUT AT LEAST WE ARE NOW AWARE AND ALERT TO A                 
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA LATER TODAY. LATEST RUC IS                
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THIS THINKING...AND NGM TO SOME EXTENT.                      
.NEW...NONE                                                                     
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
24                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1041 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY INCLUDE TEMPS AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY -SHRA              
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WRN U P THIS AFTERNOON.                                   
SFC HIGH PRES (1025MB) HAS BUILT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER NW FLOW             
ALOFT. STRONG LLJ (12Z H8 WINDS OF 50KT AT KABR) HAS LED TO AREA OF             
CONVECTION IN NRN MN. THIS CONVECTION IS STILL FIRING...BUT HAS                 
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OF LATE (SEE WARMING OF IR CLOUD TOPS)...DUE TO             
DIURNAL WEAKENING OF LLJ. BAND OF -SHRA EXTENDS FROM NRN MN SEWD                
THROUGH NW WI...AND IS PROPAGATING SLOWLY EWD. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS            
DISCUSSION...THIS PCPN IS ALONG AXIS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY (EDGE             
OF NEGATIVE H7-H5 DTHETA/DZ). OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN MSUNNY EXCEPT            
FOR INCRG HIGH WAA CLOUDS OUT WEST AHEAD OF PCPN BAND. TEMPS DROPPED            
INTO 40S OVERNIGHT...BUT HAVE RISEN INTO 60S AT 14Z.                            
PCPN WILL HAVE TOUGH TIME MAKING IT INTO DRY AIR OVER THE U P TODAY.            
W/ SFC HIGH IN PLACE...DRY/STABLE ELY LLVL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH            
THE DAY. HOWEVER...PER CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...AND AS MID              
LEVEL INSTABILITY MOVES INTO THE WEST THIS AFTN PER THE RUC AND                 
MESOETA...MAY SEE SOME -SHRA OR SPRINKLES IN WEST THIS AFTN (EARLY              
AFTN IN FACT). LGT RAIN HAS MADE IT TO KASX ALREADY...AND CIG THERE             
HAS DROPPED TO 2.4KFT IN LAST 1/2 HOUR. FURTHER SE...PCPN HAS MADE              
IT TO KRRL IN N CENTRAL WI...BUT W/ ONLY SCT MID CLOUDS. SO...                  
WHEREAS ANY PCPN REACHING SFC WILL BE LGT...CURRENT TRENDS WARRANT              
MENTION OF LGT SHRA AS OPPOSED TO JUST SPRINKLES IN FAR WEST.                   
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO....H8 TEMPS OF 10-12C AND MIXING TO NEAR THAT                
LEVEL WILL GIVE HIGHS (INLAND) INTO THE MID 70S. BUT...NO DOUBT THAT            
CLD COVER AND CHANCE OF PCPN WILL HOLD THINGS DOWN OUT WEST. SKIES              
HAVE ALREADY BECOME CLDY ACROSS MOST OF GOGEBIC COUNTY.                         
WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PCPN TRENDS AND CLOUD COVER             
IN FAR WRN ZONES. WILL ALSO UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...           
MAINLY IN THE WEST.                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                     
BIGGEST CONCERN THIS MORNING DEALS WITH HIGHS FOR TODAY. UPDATED                
ZONES EARLIER AND TWEAKED HIGHS UP EVERYWHERE 3 TO 4 DEGREES. 12Z               
RUC WAS SHOWING 925MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ALL CWA AND WITH              
GOOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
WARM A BIT ABOVE FCST HIGHS. ONLY PLACE WHERE RECORD HIGHS MAY BE IN            
JEOPARDY IS THE KATY AREA...WHERE THEIR RECORD HIGH IS 98. ALSO                 
TWEAKED SKY COVER FOR MORE SUNSHINE.                                            
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1010 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                     
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...MAINLY TO UPDATE                      
WINDS...MAX TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. 12Z ETA 850/2M                 
TEMPS SUPPORT CURRENT FCST HIGH TEMPS AND MAIN CHANGES WERE TO                  
EXPAND THE AREA OF 100+ HIGHS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND BUMPED TEMPS            
IN EXTREME WESTERN ZONES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MAIN CONCERN RIGHT             
NOW WILL BE SUSTAINED WIND AND GUSTS. FSL RUC HINTING AT ADVISORY               
LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS            
A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT KEPT THEM BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS RUC            
LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE....ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED            
AS SITES BEGIN MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON.                                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE            
FLORIDA ZONES ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND LEFTOVER STORM BOUNDARIES.                
THESE STORMS STARTED DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST BUT NOW ARE MOVING MORE               
SOUTHERLY...BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.  TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID              
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER GA AND AL ZONES.              
MODELS ARE BUILDING IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST BRINGING THE AREA OUT            
OF THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TOMORROW WINDS               
WILL BE SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY AND THEN NE DUE TO A WEAK FRONT                  
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY            
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. BEHIND THIS FRONT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS               
WHICH IS EASILY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER TENNESSEE AND CAROLINAS                 
SHOULD SETTLE IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT STAY ON THE EDGE OF OUR                    
NORTHERN ZONES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE ON            
TAP BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATLY DIMINISHED FOR THE START OF THE              
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO (90/70) FOR MOST INLAND                      
AREAS...COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS.               
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                                  
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS.                                                                    
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
THE BIG CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WAS                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN PROXIMITY OF THE CWA IS NOW MUCH WEAKER              
AND FARTHER SOUTH.  POPS, WINDS, SEAS AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE                   
ADJUSTED DOWN AND TEMPS UP TO NEAR CLIMO FROM THE MID TO END OF THE             
WEEK.                                                                           
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 73 92 72 91 / 20 30 20 40                                                   
PFN 75 90 76 89 / 20 30 20 40                                                   
DHN 73 92 74 92 / 20 30 10 30                                                   
ABY 72 92 72 92 / 20 30 10 30                                                   
VLD 72 93 71 92 / 20 30 10 30                                                   
CTY 72 91 72 90 / 20 40 20 40                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BOLINSKI                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.*******************************************                
.OVERVIEW...PLENTY OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING. BASED ON VISIBLE                 
SATELLITE TRENDS, LAST ZONES TO SEE THE FOG LIFT WILL BE THOSE                  
BORDERNG THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC                   
ANALYSES SHOWS A VORT LOBE SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND TN             
VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS DOING THE SAME. A STATIONARY LOW                    
PRESSURE CENTER IS FOUND S OF MOB. THE ETA DOES NOT SEEM TO BE                  
HANDLING THIS LATTER FEATURE ALL THAT WELL. FOR THAT REASON, BELIEVE            
IT IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE TROUGH SWD TODAY. THE GFS                  
RESOLVES THE SURFACE LOW BEST AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY. 12Z             
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED THE PW IS STILL WELL OVER 2 INCHES. GRANTED,               
DRIER AIR IS EVIDENT ON THE KBMX AND KFFC SOUNDINGS, BUT WE BELIEVE             
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THIS MAKES IT SWD INTO OUR            
FL ZONES. FOR THIS REASON, BELIEVE OUR LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE            
SW TO W MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WEAK UPPER                  
SUPPORT TO PROVIDE FOR GOOD COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FL ZONES WITH                   
SOMEWHAT LESS CONVECTION N OF THE BORDER.                                       
.UPDATE...WILL NEED TO UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG WORDING. AT THAT TIME,              
WE MAY TWEAK POPS 10 PERCENT HERE AND THERE. HOWEVER, THE IDEA OF               
HIGHER POPS SE AND LOWER N LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS            
WELL. MOS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR TODAY. WITH THE WEAK GRADIENT,             
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOST OF THE DAY.                                            
.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                                   
WOOL                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
*****************************************************************               
215 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL USA WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING S INTO             
THE SE USA AHEAD OF THE RIDGE. W/V AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
DECENT DRYING BEHIND THIS TROUGH...WITH LESS THAN 1.5" PRECIPITABLE             
WATER (PWAT) RECORDED IN THE 23/00Z FFC/BMX RAOBS. 04Z SURFACE                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED S-SW OF PENSACOLA.            
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST OFF OUR               
WRN COAST THANKS TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NE OF THE LOW.                              
RECAP...FRIDAY WAS INDEED DISTURBED...BUT THE BEST COVERAGE OF                  
PRECIPITATION WAS SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OVER OUR AL/GA                
ZONES. THUS...POPS WERE A BIT OVERDONE FOR THE FL ZONES.                        
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY...MODELS AGREE ON DRIER NLY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO              
WORK S INTO OUR CWFA...WHILE REGION OF WLY FLOW BELOW 700 MB GETS               
PUSHED OFFSHORE. EVEN THOUGH THINGS MAY BE A LITTLE TO SYNOPTICALLY             
FORCED TO FIT INTO OUR LOCAL SEABREEZE CLIMATOLOGY...WE STILL WOULD             
EXPECT TO SEE HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR FL ZONES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS              
THIS...AND DO NOT PLAN ON CHANGING SIGNIFICANTLY.                               
SUNDAY...MEAN FLOW BELOW 700 MB BECOMES STRONGER AND MORE OUT OF THE            
NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT DROP OF AROUND 0.2" PWAT AND               
MID LEVEL WARMING. THUS...EXPECT HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN FL BIG               
BEND WHERE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. MAXIMUM                     
TEMPERATURES INLAND SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER.                                  
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT.                       
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS.                                                                    
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
NO CHANGES MADE.                                                                
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 89 73 92 72 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
PFN 89 75 92 75 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
DHN 89 73 91 74 / 40 20 30 10                                                   
ABY 90 73 91 72 / 40 20 20 10                                                   
VLD 89 72 93 71 / 60 20 30 10                                                   
CTY 88 72 90 72 / 60 20 40 20                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO                                            
300 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
HIGHER TERRAIN SEEING SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU AS COPIUS RAINFALL                   
YESTERDAY /0.2-1.17 INCHES/ LED TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
TODAY. IN ADDITION A WEAK WAVE A H7 SEEN ON MORNING RAOB PLOT OVER              
NV IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO SRN MTS TONIGHT.  AN UPPER VORT                
CENTER NEAR OAKLAND IS SHEARING OUT TO THE NE AND RIDING UP AN                  
ELONGATED SHEAR VORT TROF OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                 
SOUNDING SHOWED 300 CAPE WITH -2 LI FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON FCST            
HI OF 80 AND BOI IS ALREADY 82. RUC SHOWS HIGHEST CAPES FROM                    
OWYHEES/SW HIGHLANDS CIRCLING AROUND TO THE BLUES AND INTO WEST                 
CENTRAL MTS THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT ISOL THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING             
AROUND THE S-W-N PERIPHERY OF THE BOISE CWFA.  CLEARING WILL ALLOW              
FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO EASILY DROP TO NEAR            
DEWPOINTS IN MID 50S VALLEYS AND 40S MOUNTAINS. MANY AREAS SOIL                 
MOISTURE STILL UP AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND SO EXPECT               
AREAS OF FG IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCAL FOG IN THE TREASURE VALLEY.              
DRIER WSW FLOW WITH THERMAL RIDGE REASSERTING ITSELF NW MONDAY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT TO             
20 RIDGE TOPS.  AVN/MRF AND UK MET RUNS ALL HINTING A SOME PRECIP               
AND MOISTURE WORKING TO NEAR NV-ID BORDER LATE TUE THROUGH WED AND              
HAVE TRENDED MORE MOIST THERE IN COORD WITH LKN AND PER SLC/ELKO                
GRIDS.  SO WARMER WED NIGHT MINS BUT COOLER OVER SE ZONES ON HIGHS              
PER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC MAINLY DRY GUSTY TS.                                  
DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS RIDGE            
ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE SW U.S. THOUGH THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR             
WEAK UPPER WAVES TO PUSH THRU THE WRN US ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
.BOI...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
=                                                                               
VM                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KANSAS                                          
303 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS ARE IN THE LONGER RANGE OF THE FCST.                              
SHORTER TERM HAS SOME CONCERN IN CONVECTIVE CHCS THIS EVENING.                  
APPEARS ON LATEST RUCII THAT A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES, REFLECTED               
TOO IN H7 TEMPS, WERE OVER THE SWRN CWA. WITH SATELLITE INDICATING              
CONVECTIVE DVLPMT THAT AREA ALREADY, WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS THIS            
EVENING THERE. REST OF AREA WILL BE CLEAR OR HAVE DMSHG CU THIS                 
EVENING. ALL OF AREA SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR BEFORE MIDN.                         
HIGH TEMPS NEXT FEW DAYS TO BE OVER 100. MET GUIDANCE BETTER...AND              
MESO-ETA SFC TEMPS MAY BE BEST OF ALL AS FAR OUT AS THEY GO.                    
NEXT BNDRY APPEARS WILL BE NORTH OF AREA IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY               
TIME FRAME. THUS, WILL GO PLUS OR MINUS AROUND 100 THROUGH THURSDAY.            
LOWS AT NIGHT UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE WELL            
OVER 100 AFTN HOURS NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER NIGHTTIME READINGS WILL             
BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...THUS PRECLUDING ANY                   
ADVISORIES.                                                                     
AS MENTIONED, MAIN CONCERN IS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH APPCHG WAVE AND            
SFC FNT. EURO MODEL...PREFERRED MODEL MUCH OF THE SUMMER...HAS AN               
UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THIS IS APPARENT                
SYSTEM EURO MODEL ASSOCIATED WITH FNT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY                    
NIGHT/FRIDAY. PER LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY, THIS UPPER LOW               
APPEARS TO BE REFORMING A BIT SOUTH OF MRNG POSITION. EURO MODEL                
THEN MOVES THIS SYSTEM STEADILY TOWARDS NWRN COAST BY TUESDAY. GFS,             
MUCH LESS PREFERRED MODEL THIS SUMMER, HASTENS MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE            
AND, FOR THE MOST PART, WEAKENS IT TO NEARLY NOTHING BY WEDNESDAY.              
EVEN LAST TWO UK MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TWRD EURO SOLUTION.                    
REFERENCE EURO MODEL...BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MRNG, NOTE 850                  
MOISTURE/DEW POINTS IN THE BALLPARK FOR PCPN...AND 850 TEMPS COOLER,            
RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THAN THEY HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOME TIME.                
THUS, HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH INTRODUCING LOW POPS THURSDAY                        
NIGHT/FRIDAY PER HPC. HOWEVER PREFER TO DRAW DOWN TEMPERATURES                  
CLOSER TO CLIMO BY SATURDAY VICE SUB-CLIMO READINGS PER HPC.                    
.TOP...NONE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THUNDERSTORM                 
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE             
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN                
ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE IS OVER WESTERN                         
ONTARIO...POISED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SURFACE                    
ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT               
LAKES. A LOW IS OVER SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING                 
SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE COLD            
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.                
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AN               
UPPER LEVEL JET IS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE A LOW LEVEL 30 KNOT             
JET OVER MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO DIRECT MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT            
LAKES.                                                                          
ETA/GFS IS DEPICTING THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA              
TONIGHT. 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG WITH              
THIS SHORTWAVE...AND 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL SPREAD WEST             
TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE                 
SLIDES INTO OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL 40 KNOT JET WILL BE OVER                 
WISCONSIN TONIGHT FEEDING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA.                 
ETA/GFS AGREE THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE LOWER GREAT             
LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.              
Q-VECTORS STILL SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO                
MAINTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
A ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A               
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE                   
SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE             
RELOCATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FROM THE RAINS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH                
COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL               
PRODUCE PATCHES OF FOG MAINLY OVER THE LOW LYING AREA. A WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE LAKE SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE              
AND DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT               
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE INTO THE ARROW HEAD              
OF MINNESOTA.                                                                   
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND              
TUESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER              
MICHIGAN. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ON             
TUESDAY OVER THE U.P. ETA IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GFS. IN ANY                   
CASE...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO POPS WILL BE LOW.                            
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER                  
HUDSON BAY WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE                
THE SURFACE LOW OVER JAMES BAY SHIFT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC DRAGGING THE            
COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD             
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE RELOCATES             
FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DRY AIR STILL IN                
PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS.             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE              
FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE AHEAD            
OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY FEEDING THE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE              
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHILE             
A SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN                   
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE             
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIMIT SHOWER AND             
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DRY AIR WILL MOVE              
INTO THE AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE.                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
QUITE A HOT PROD POINTING INTO WCNTL MN AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES.               
TEMPS OBSCENELY HOT IN CNTL/ERN SD (95-110F). NO SUPRISE GIVEN                  
H9/H8 TEMPS ON RUC/ETA. QUITE A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY FELL INTO ERN               
CWA AROUND UPR RIDGE THIS AFTN...KINDA TEMPERING HEATING...BUT STILL            
LOW/MID 80S. WINDS VERY FIESTY IN AREA OF SIG WAA PRES FALLS IN VRY             
TIGHT GRADIENT ACRS WRN 1/2 OF CWA. (12MBS ACRS ABOUT 3OO MILES).               
WAS SLIGHTLY CONCERNED THAT ISO TSRA MAY POP THIS EVE ON NOSE OF HOT            
PROD WHERE TC BEING APPROACHES AND VRY NARROW INSTAB AXIS (B+ TO                
1500 J/KG) NEAR MAXIMIZED CONV AREA NEAR LO PRES...BUT CAP APPEARS              
TOO STRONG/MOISTURE TOO WEAK. WL KEEP POPS IN NERN CWA THIS EVE AS              
UPR DIV AND BACK END OF HUGE SURGE OF WAA...AS WELL AS RESURGENCE OF            
WSWLY LLJ TO 55KTS MAY CONT TSRA GENERATION OVR NRN WI...BACKING                
INTO NERN CWA. SMALL POPS THO. ALSO KEPT SMALL POPS OVR NRN/NWRN CWA            
AS SFC/H7 TROFS SLIP INTO/THRU CWA. CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN...AND                  
ALTHOUGH ALL MECHANISMS OF LIFT (WAA/UPR TROF) WILL BE OUT OF                   
PHASE...AND LLJ POINTS WELL INTO NRN/CNTL WI...MAY BE ENOUGH CONV               
ALONG FRNT TO LET A FEW TSRAS GET GOING. LLVL MOISTURE NOT                      
THERE...BUT STILL SOME ELEVATED JOULES PEHAPS FOR HIGH BASED ACTION.            
SUN THE FRONT SLIPS THRU CWA RATHER QUIETLY. PLENTY OF LL HEAT AGAIN            
SO TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND WITH SUN. PROBABLY SOME MORE CIRRUS DECKS/AC            
DECKS AROUND SO THEY MAY HOLD HEATING DOWN IN SPOTS. DRIER NWLY SFC             
FLOW BEHIND FRONT SO AIR WILL HEAT NICELY. FLATTENING OF H5 RIDGE               
THRU DAY BUT LITTLE FORCING OVR SFC TROF. DID KEEP VRY SMALL POPS               
VCNTY OF THE FRONT /FAR SRN CWA LATE/ WITH COOLER MID LVL TEMPS AND             
PEHAPS SOMETHING MAY POP...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY...BUT AGAIN...LACK             
OF FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE.  SUN NIGHT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING                  
CONSISTENT MCS SIGNAL IN GFS/ETA AS WRN END OF FRONT OVR DAKS                   
RETURNS NORTH AS WAA AGAIN INCREASES. H85 JET OF 25 TO 35 KT MAY BE             
ENOUGH TO SPARK. KEPT CURRENT WX/POP GRIDS FOR EXPANDING TSRA                   
CHANCES ACRS CWA. MAINLY SOUTH THO.                                             
MONDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONT HAS LOST A LOT OF OOMPH AS ETA HAS LOST              
MUCH OF ITS AMPLITUDE...AND NOW FLAT RIDGING WILL PERSIST THRU MID              
WEEK. THE TROF WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO BE SO STRONG...COMES THRU IN A             
MUCH WEAKER FASHION...SO NOT TOO THRILLED ABOUT POPS. STILL LOOKS               
WARM...AS SLY FLOW PICKS UP. BUT ALREADY HAVE QUESTIONS JUST HOW FAR            
SOUTH WEAK SFC FRONT WILL PUSH AS H7 HEIGHTS ALREADY BEGIN TO RISE              
BY TUE AFTN. THIS SETS UP WHAT MAY BE AN ACTIVE WED AND THUR AS WARM            
FRONT RETURNS AND BIG CANADIAN JET SERVING AS FORCING MECH WITH                 
STRONG SFC LO PRES PER GFS. HEAT PERHAPS COMING IN AGAIN ON THUR.               
COOLING HAS NOW PUSHED WELL INTO END OF NEXT WEEK...AND TRENDS CONT             
TO SLOW IT. TEMPS MAY NEED BUMPED UP FURTHER WED AND THUR.                      
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
200 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2003                                                      
ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LOOK GREAT FOR CONVECTION                       
TODAY...WE APPEAR TO BE IN A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS DUE TO NVA              
FROM THE SOUTH (AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS). HAVE SEEN SCT              
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THUS FAR...WITH SOME HEAVY                 
RAINFALL FM CRP TO BAFFIN BAY...BUT OVERALL CONVECTION NOT AS                   
IMPRESSIVE AS ANTICIPATED EARLIER. OUTFLOWS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE             
COASTAL BEND OUT AND THEREFORE HAVE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER                
POPS NEAR THE COAST. WILL KEEP 40-50 POPS FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT                
APPEARS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOSTLY OVER...NOT TO SAY               
THERE WILL NOT STILL BE SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS            
AFTN.                                                                           
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
88/MJG...SHORT TERM                                                             
92/TR...LONG TERM                                                               
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