AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...                                          
320 AM CDT                                                                      
LARGE MCS PRODUCING NEARLY 4000 CG LTG STRIKES/HR AND ASSOCIATED                
MESO LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS NRN IA/SERN MN/AND WI THIS MORNING. WARM            
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANITOWOC WI TO MINNEAPOLIS WHILE COLD                
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THERE BACK ACROSS NE AND WRN KS. LARGE                    
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SERN U.S. CONTINUES TO CONTROL               
OUR WEATHER...UNTIL THIS AFTN. DEBRIS CIRRUS CANOPY FROM THE                    
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MCS IS NOW STARTING TO INFILTRATE NRN IL. THIS             
CLOUDINESS SHOULD SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY IN THE AREA NW OF A LINE               
FROM CHICAGO TO OTTAWA. THUS...CURRENT LAYOUT OF HEAT                           
WARNING/ADVISORIES APPEARS ON TRACK WITH THE AREA ALONG AND SE OF               
I-55 EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST INSOLATION.                                      
THE GFS MODEL IS THE FASTEST WITH FROPA INTO THE RFD AREA SOMETIME              
~18Z AND CHICAGO BY 20-22Z. PREFER THE NAM-WRF/RUC SOLN WHICH                   
DEPICTS FROPA ABOUT 3 HRS LATER THAN THAT. ASSUMING THE LATER FROPA             
PANS OUT...AMS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NRN IL AND              
NW IN THIS AFTN WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS            
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SVR...THROUGH WINDS A BIT MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL            
THAN IT HAD EARLIER BEEN LOOKING. THUS...THE MORE PREDOMINANT SEVERE            
RISK SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS INITIALLY...SHIFTING TO HEAVY RAIN BY             
THURS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 2 INCHES.                           
RAIN-COOLED AIR TOMORROW SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM CLIMBING MUCH                
ABOVE 80 AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE THURS NT               
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT WITH SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED. THE GFS IS               
BACKING OFF ITS EARLIER SUGGESTION OF PRECIP FOR SUN NT AND MON.                
WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POP MENTION FOR NOW...BUT HIGH MAY LINGER                 
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.                                                           
RRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS...                                      
BIG QUESTION THIS AFTN CONCERNS TIMING OF NEXT ROUND OF TSTM                    
INITIATION.  AMS OVR AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING...AHD OF COLD                   
FRONT...WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE.  AREA REMAINS               
CAPPED ATTM AND STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DVLP OVHD...BUT RATHER               
SHOULD INITIATE TO N AND W IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC FRONT.                    
CURRENT SATLT IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF CU/TCU DVLPG ACRS NERN IA AND               
SWRN WI.  WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT ALSO SEEN OVR WRN IA.  THIS SUGGESTS               
STORMS WILL BE DVLPG BY 20Z TO N AND W OF TERMINALS.  STORMS ARE                
THEN EXPECTED TO INCRS IN COVG THRU AFTN/EVENING...PERHAPS FORMING              
INTO A LINEAR CLUSTER ALG FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD INTO AREA.  CURRENT              
GUIDANCE SHOWS FROPA FROM NW-SE ACRS TERMINAL AREA O4Z-07Z.  WILL GO            
WITH TEMPO THUNDER JUST AHD OF FNT...ALTHOUGH MORE CELLULAR/DISCREET            
CELLS MAY DVLP IN UNSTABLE AIR AHD OF MAIN LINE GIVEN AMT OF                    
INSTABILITY.  WILL KEEP VCTS IN TAFS FOR ISOLD AFTN DVLPMT.                     
CONDS TO RMN VFR...XCP INVOF TSTMS...UNTIL FROPA LATE THIS EVENING.             
WILL GO WITH LOW-END MVFR CIGS AFT FROPA DUE TO LLVL COLD ADVECTION             
INTO HIGH DEW POINT AIR.  WILL CONTINUE THIS INTO THU MRNG WITH CIGS            
LIFTG BY AFTN AS LLVLS START TO DRY OUT.                                        
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING COOK COUNTY AND HEAT ADVISORY COUNTIES             
      ALONG AND SE OF I-55 UNTIL 7PM THIS EVENING.                              
.IN...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.                                  
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1130 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO INCREASE CHANCES                 
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO 30 PERCENT BY FROM GALESBURG AND LACON NORTH.               
OTHERWISE WILL BE ANOTHER SIZZLER. THIS WILL BE THE 5TH CONSECUTIVE             
DAYS OF THIS HEAT WAVE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE                
TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL HAVE                   
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110F.                                          
16Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER NW PARTS OF WI/IA INTO                  
CENTRAL KS WHILE 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF COAST                  
STATES. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY OVER CENTRAL IL GIVING                  
STRONGER SW WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH                    
NORTH OF I-70. AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL WITH MID/HIGH                
CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVER NW IL WHILE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS                    
DEVELOPING FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. 11 AM TEMPS            
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH               
DEWPOINTS 70 TO 75 GIVING HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 102F. ALOFT A 595 DM            
500 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE CETNRAL                     
APPALACHIANS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE U.S. INCLUDING               
IL.                                                                             
RUC AND NAM/WRF BRING THE COLD FRONT SE TOWARD THE QUAD CITIES IN               
FAR NW IL BY 00Z/7 PM. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND BEHIND               
THE FRONT SO BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE            
NW OF GALESBURG. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT MOVED SE INTO AREAS NW OF              
THE IL RIVER COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION AFTER 3 PM AND HAVE              
20 TO 30 CHANCES FROM PEORIA NW THIS AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES SLIGHT            
RISK OF SEVERE NW OF LINCOLN FOR TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL               
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND             
SE IL AND CONTINUE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPS OF 22              
TO 24C ABOUT AS HOT AS PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100F WITH             
WARMEST READINGS FROM PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD SW. DEWPOINTS OF 70 TO             
75 WILL GIVE HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON OF 105 TO 110F SO HEAT                 
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
JUST ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT LEFT TO CONTEND WITH... AFTER WHICH A COLD            
FRONT SPELLS RELIEF FOR THURSDAY... WITH MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER               
APPEARING LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND.                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                            
STILL HAVE NOT MANAGED TO REACH 100 ACROSS THE CWA... AND WE ARE                
RUNNING OUT OF TIME AS WE GO INTO THE LAST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE.                
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS HAVE SHOWN THAT +24C AT H85 IS                
PRETTY MUCH CRITICAL TO ATTAINING A MAX SFC TEMP OF 100F.  ALSO...              
WE HAVE HAD AN AREA OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS                  
REMAINED ALOFT THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OVER ILLINOIS.                              
THIS AFTERNOON... THE H85 THERMAL AXIS SHOULD MOVE OVER THE CWA.                
HOWEVER... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT IT IS WEAKENING/MODERATING              
WITH TIME... AND +24C H85 TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN                
ILLINOIS.  AT THE SAME TIME... LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ON-GOING            
MCS OVER IOWA WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA            
LATE THIS MORNING... REINFORCED BY THE CONTINUING SPREAD OF                     
CONVECTION EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THAT GIVES US ANOTHER NEGATIVE             
VARIABLE TO ADD TO THE EQUATION.                                                
OVERALL... SUSPECT THAT 100F MAY BE JUST OUT OF REACH THIS                      
AFTERNOON.  WILL GO WITH WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST               
PER POSITION OF H85 THERMAL AXIS... AND COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST                 
WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE OF A CONCERN.                                    
STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH THE            
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA... WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE            
FAR NORTHWEST.                                                                  
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS... AS IT BEGINS            
TO LAY OUT IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  PRECIP WILL             
LIKELY COME IN TWO STAGES...                                                    
FIRST AN INITIAL BAND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BEFORE MIDNIGHT...                
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST CWA.  THIS WILL BE THE                    
REMNANTS OF THE SFC-BASED CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS                   
NORTHEASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT               
WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE.                
THE SECOND BATCH OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MISSOURI BY EARLY                
EVENING... AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.               
THE LLJ WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...                   
INCREASING CONVECTION COVERAGE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD                 
EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN CONTINUE                   
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.                                             
THIS PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EJECTING OUT OF THE               
DESERT SOUTHWEST... CARRYING WITH IT PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.               
THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND                
UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING OVER THE EL PASO TEXAS AREA OVER THE PAST                
SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SHOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING            
WITH IT WILL PUSH PWAT VALUES OVER 2-2.25 INCHES BY THURSDAY                    
MORNING.  WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT LEFT PARALLEL TO THE MEAN UPPER              
FLOW... SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...                
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS... AS THE FRONT SLOWLY               
SLIDES SOUTHWARD.  ALSO... ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUT                 
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.           
MODELS APPEAR TO BE PUSHING THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA A LITTLE TOO              
QUICKLY... GIVEN THAT MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF             
THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY... LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE.  WITH              
NO REAL UPPER LEVEL PUSH... STILL BELIEVE THE FRONT WILL LINGER AND             
FESTER SOMEWHERE AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MEANWHILE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH                 
SATURDAY BRINGING WITH IT QUIETER AND MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER.                 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                             
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.               
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH... WITH RIDGING            
COMPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE               
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... DRAGGING              
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY.  GFS IS MORE WOUND UP                
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CANADIAN OR ECMWF... BUT THE OVERALL                  
PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR ACROSS THE MODELS.                                      
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO SETUP                
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RETROGRADES            
AND REBUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE IT BELONGS THIS TIME             
OF THE YEAR.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY 8/2... MAY BE TOUGH TO CRACK.                        
PEORIA............101 IN 1947 AND PREV YEARS                                    
SPRINGFIELD.......101 IN 1964 AND 1947                                          
LINCOLN...........101 IN 1964                                                   
URBANA/U OF I.....101 IN 1901                                                   
DECATUR.......... 103 IN 1901                                                   
PREVIOUS DAY WITH AT LEAST 100 DEGREES...                                       
PEORIA...........101 ON JULY 25 2005                                            
SPRINGFIELD......101 ON JULY 14 1995                                            
LINCOLN..........100 ON JULY 25 2005                                            
URBANA/U OF I....100 ON JULY 13 1995                                            
DECATUR..........100 ON JULY 21 2002                                            
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TODAY FOR ALL OF                                       
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/SLOVE/HARDIMAN                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.FCST DISCUSSION UPDATED...                                                     
OVERNIGHT...UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOWED ONE DISTURBANCE ACROSS MI AND                
ANOTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SFC-850MB              
COLD FRONT ARE ORGANIZING ACROSS MI/FAR NORTHERN IN AT THIS HOUR                
WITHIN STRONGER SHEAR AND CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE.                  
850-300MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST A EASTWARD MOVEMENT TO THIS COMPLEX OF            
STORMS. MEANWHILE, A BROAD AREA OF WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE            
WITHIN THE SFC-850MB FRONT SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED MULTI-CELL TSRA              
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF IL OVERNIGHT. OF NOTE IS THE            
FORWARD MOVING MCS COMPLEX NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. THIS                
COMPLEX SHOULD RIDE THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT ENE INTO NORTHERN MO              
AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL IL LATER TONIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF THIS                   
COMPLEX COULD IMPACT THE WX ACROSS CENTRAL IN THURS MORNING. ALL IN             
ALL THE GOING FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH BETTER CHCS FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE            
NW AND SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL IN THURS. THE WILD CARD WILL             
BE THE EXTENT OF ANY REMNANT ORGANIZED TSRA FROM THE MO COMPLEX. MY             
FIRST IMPRESSION WAS THAT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW COULD RISE SHARPLY IN              
THE ABSENCE OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLD/PRECIP GIVEN THE WARM TEMPS                   
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE AIR TEMPS AROUND 90/LOWER 90S ACROSS              
THE SOUTH WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS AREAS                 
SOUTH OF I-70. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME I DO NOT ANTICIPATED HEAT                  
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 104. BEST CHC FOR SVR STILL APPEARS TO BE THURS            
PM WITH GREATEST CAPE ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR OF 30KTS BUT THIS IS                
ALSO DEPENDANT ON THE NATURE OF ANY MORNING TSRA.                               
CO                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS                                         
FIRST 10-12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.  A              
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE KLAF AREA AROUND 12Z.  TIMING OF PRECIP            
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FROPA.  GFS IS THE               
FASTER MODEL AS FAR AS FROPA AND PRECIP ONSET WHILE THE RUC AND WRF             
ARE SLOWER.  BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT            
OF THE FRONT AND H5 FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT UNTIL AROUND 18Z WILL            
LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER FROPA AND PRECIP ONSET FOR THE TERMINAL SITES.             
H5 VORT MAX DOES NOT ENTER INTO INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 18Z BUT WITH               
WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TSRA THAT ARE MORE                 
SCATTERED IN NATURE ARE MORE LIKELY EARLY ON IN THE 12Z-15Z                     
TIMEFRAME BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED LATER IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.               
STILL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF FROPA WHICH WILL BE A KEY             
PLAYER IN TOMORROWS ACTIVITY.  WILL NOT GO CATEGORICAL WITH TSRA AT             
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
VISBY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS FOG DIDNT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH             
LAST NIGHT AND WE HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES WL CONT TO GIVE US              
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COMBINED                
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE ALLOWING HEAT INDICES                
TO REACH INTO THE 100S. VIS IMGRY SHOWS A DIURNAL CU FIELD ACRS                 
THE S AND SE FA...UPR LVL RIDGE IS SEEN ON WV IMGRY WITH PLENTY OF              
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS AROUND 12C...GOOD CAP IN PLACE.                   
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA TDY UNTIL LATER TGHT IN THE                    
FAR NW FA.                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE REST                
OF TDY AND POPS LATE TGHT...THURSDAY...AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.               
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TODAY BUT DIFFER IN THEIR                     
SOLUTIONS AFTER TGHT. THE NAM/WRF BRINGS THE CD FRONT THRU THE FA               
MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE               
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. ECMWF/NAM/GFS AGREE WITH PLACING US IN BETWEEN               
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W AND TROUGH TO THE NE. HAVE LEANED                 
MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION WITH THE POSITION OF THE CD FRONT. AM                  
GOING TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE THRU TGHT AND WITH H8 TEMPS HOLDING                
NEAR 20C... WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL TGHT.                           
POPS LATE TGHT...THURSDAY...AND ENDING FRIDAY. EXPECTING                        
PRECIP TO BEGIN IN THE FAR NW FA LATE TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE FA                 
THURSDAY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR LVL RIDGE... THIS WL BE                
A SLOW MOVING CD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE FA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                 
THEREFORE WL KEEP POPS AROUND ALL DAY THURSDAY AND FOR THE FAR S                
FA FRIDAY MORNING.                                                              
AFTER CF PA...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT CHC OF                 
PRECIP WL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE INBETWEEN UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE               
W AND TROUGH TO THE NE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...SALLY                                                                
PUBLIC...CO/JO                                                                  
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
650 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS                                         
FIRST 10-12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.  A              
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE KLAF AREA AROUND 12Z.  TIMING OF PRECIP            
WILL BE AN ISSUE AS MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF FROPA.  GFS IS THE               
FASTER MODEL AS FAR AS FROPA AND PRECIP ONSET WHILE THE RUC AND WRF             
ARE SLOWER.  BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS WITH REGARDS TO MOVEMENT            
OF THE FRONT AND H5 FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT UNTIL AROUND 18Z WILL            
LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER FROPA AND PRECIP ONSET FOR THE TERMINAL SITES.             
H5 VORT MAX DOES NOT ENTER INTO INDIANA UNTIL AROUND 18Z BUT WITH               
WARM MOIST AIRMASS AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TSRA THAT ARE MORE                 
SCATTERED IN NATURE ARE MORE LIKELY EARLY ON IN THE 12Z-15Z                     
TIMEFRAME BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED LATER IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME.               
STILL THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF FROPA WHICH WILL BE A KEY             
PLAYER IN TOMORROWS ACTIVITY.  WILL NOT GO CATEGORICAL WITH TSRA AT             
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.                                                   
VISBY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT AS FOG DIDNT REALLY DEVELOP MUCH             
LAST NIGHT AND WE HAVE HAD ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED OVER THE SE STATES WL CONT TO GIVE US              
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COMBINED                
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ARE ALLOWING HEAT INDICES                
TO REACH INTO THE 100S. VIS IMGRY SHOWS A DIURNAL CU FIELD ACRS                 
THE S AND SE FA...UPR LVL RIDGE IS SEEN ON WV IMGRY WITH PLENTY OF              
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS AROUND 12C...GOOD CAP IN PLACE.                   
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY TSRA TDY UNTIL LATER TGHT IN THE                    
FAR NW FA.                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THE REST                
OF TDY AND POPS LATE TGHT...THURSDAY...AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING.               
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU TODAY BUT DIFFER IN THEIR                     
SOLUTIONS AFTER TGHT. THE NAM/WRF BRINGS THE CD FRONT THRU THE FA               
MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS...WHILE THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE               
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. ECMWF/NAM/GFS AGREE WITH PLACING US IN BETWEEN               
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W AND TROUGH TO THE NE. HAVE LEANED                 
MORE TOWARD GFS SOLUTION WITH THE POSITION OF THE CD FRONT. AM                  
GOING TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE THRU TGHT AND WITH H8 TEMPS HOLDING                
NEAR 20C... WL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL TGHT.                           
POPS LATE TGHT...THURSDAY...AND ENDING FRIDAY. EXPECTING                        
PRECIP TO BEGIN IN THE FAR NW FA LATE TONIGHT AND THE ENTIRE FA                 
THURSDAY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPR LVL RIDGE... THIS WL BE                
A SLOW MOVING CD FRONT THAT WILL EXIT THE FA BY FRIDAY MORNING.                 
THEREFORE WL KEEP POPS AROUND ALL DAY THURSDAY AND FOR THE FAR S                
FA FRIDAY MORNING.                                                              
AFTER CF PA...TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. THE NEXT CHC OF                 
PRECIP WL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE INBETWEEN UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE               
W AND TROUGH TO THE NE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...SALLY                                                                
PUBLIC...BF/JO                                                                  
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ021-                
INZ028-INZ029-INZ030-INZ031-INZ035-INZ036-INZ037-INZ038-INZ039-                 
INZ040-INZ041-INZ042-INZ043-INZ044-INZ045-INZ046-INZ047-INZ048-                 
INZ049-INZ051-INZ052-INZ053-INZ054-INZ055-INZ056-INZ057-INZ060-                 
INZ061-INZ062-INZ063-INZ064-INZ065-INZ067-INZ068-INZ069-INZ070-                 
INZ071-INZ072.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1117 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDDED FIELDS TO DEPICT CURRENT WX. 16Z SFC                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS SLOW MOVING BNDRY FM JUST S OF KOMA NEWD THRU NCENT              
IA WITH SCT SHRA INVOF. XPECT THE FRONT TO SLWLY PUSH ESEWD INTO                
CENT IA THIS AFT AS INSTABILITY INC OUT AHEAD COINCIDING WITH PEAK              
HEATING. HOWEVER...CI MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME DEGREE AND                  
HOLD CAP IN PLACE A LITTLE LONGER. 15Z RUC ERODES CINH EARLY THIS               
AFT WITH MLCAPES INC TO OVER 2000 J/KG. LATEST WV LOOP CONTINUES                
TO SHOW SEVERAL S/W'S EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST PLUME DIRECTED INTO                 
THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...COMBINED WITH DECENT LLVL                    
CONVERGENCE AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT                 
THIS AFT. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE RATHER STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES                
AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN /PWATS AROUND 2"/...THUS WIND              
AND +RA WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 349 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.  JET SEGMENT OVER            
SERN CANADA WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION STILL AIDING UVM FROM NE INTO            
WI.  MCV WITH IA/MN MCS DEVELOPING AND SHOULD PUSH INTO MN THIS                 
MORNING WITH ELONGATED SHRT WVS CONNECTING TO STRONGER NM/TX WV.                
H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION MAX ALSO IN PLACE ALG MO RIVER IN                      
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ZONE HELPING TO SUSTAIN NE CONVECTION WHICH             
WILL IMPACT NWRN FA THIS MORNING.  1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPES STILL IN              
PLACE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 14KFT PLUS AND PWS OVER 2 INCHES SO                
WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE THROUGH 12Z.  FLASH FLOOD THREAT                
PROBABLY DIMINISHING...BUT CANNOT SEE CANCELLING HEADLINE                       
CONSIDERING ONE TO SIX INCHES HAS FALLEN IN NWRN FOUR COUNTIES WITH             
MORE ON THE WAY...ALBEIT LOWER RATES.                                           
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DIMISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH ATTENTION TURNING             
TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND TONIGHT.  NAM/GFS BOTH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE              
QG FORCING ACROSS SRN IA TONIGHT LIFTING NM/TX SHRT WV INTO LOWER MO            
RIVER VALLEY.  310K ISENT LIFT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENC              
VERY STRONG INTO NRN MO/SRN IA SO WILL BOOST POPS INTO CATEGORICAL.             
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z 4.5KM SPC WRF AND 21Z SREF POPS.  MORE                 
SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.  JET STRENGTH AND                      
DIVERGENCE WEAKER...BUT MECHANICAL FORCING AND ISENT LIFT CERTAINLY             
THERE WITH PCPN EFFICIENCY PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING              
NOW.  DO NOT FEEL ANOTHER HEADLINE WARRANTED WITH SERN PORTIONS                 
LIKELY BEING ABLE TO TAKE AN EVENT.  HAVE MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN IN               
THE ZONES HOWEVER AND WILL HIT HARD IN HWO.  PCPN SHOULD LINGER INTO            
THU MORNING WITH LIKELY POPS THEN DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS SYS PULLS              
AWAY.  LITTLE FORCING OR MOISTURE NOTED INTO WEEKEND WITH NO CHANGES.           
TEMP WISE...KDSM 08Z TEMP STILL 85 WHICH IS JUST BELOW NORMAL HIGH.             
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH REBOUND TODAY HOWEVER.  08Z SFC ANLYS PLACES                 
CDFNT ALONG KOFK-KEST-KMSP LINE WITH POSITION ACROSS SERN FA                    
EXPECTED BY MID-AFTERNOON.  CFP AND LINGERING PCPN/DEBRIS CLOUDS                
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT SO STAYED WITH GUIDANCE BLEND N AND             
HIGHER END SE.  STAYED TOWARD COMPROMISE FOR MINS...AND EDGE TOWARD             
HIGHER END MAXES THU/FRI BASED ON SUITE OF H85 TEMPS...BOTH WITH                
CLIMO ADJUSTMENTS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...21                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
942 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL BE MAKING MORE TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST. 00Z UPPER AIR                     
ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK WAVE STILL LAGGING OVER NEW                
MEXICO. WITH PROFILERS IN OK SHOWING BACKING H85 WINDS...SHOULD                 
SEE SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE                   
SOUTHERN HALF. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER AS OUTFLOW                    
STABILIZES THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. WILL NIX WATCH MOMENTARILY AND               
UPDATE REMAINDER OF FORECAST/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY. -HOWERTON       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT...                
RATHER EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST              
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SEVERE STORMS ALREADY SOUTH OF HAYS AND NEAR              
RUSSELL. THE AREA PROFILERS AND RUC MESO FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST                 
SHEAR PROFILE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SUPPORTIVE              
OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL                 
KANSAS. CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MULTI-CELL/LINEAR             
MODE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK               
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION BODING FOR SOME LARGE                 
HAIL AS WELL. WITH A BIT OF A SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL INTACT              
OVER SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS GREATER THAN               
TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RISK LATER THIS EVENING              
AND OVERNIGHT. SO...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL                  
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD              
BE EXCESSIVE TOO.                                                               
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND               
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. GOING MAXS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LOOK OK                  
THOUGH LINGERING CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRI COULD RESULT IN TEMPS EVEN              
A LITTLE BIT COOLER. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO EARLY                  
NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
TIER WILL ENHANCE/SHARPEN A TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING              
A FRONT TO BACKDOOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SO WILL               
MAINTAIN A DRY AND HOT FORECAST...WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.              
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  68  91 /  60  40  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10                                
NEWTON          69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10                                
ELDORADO        72  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  90  69  92 /  50  50  20  10                                
RUSSELL         64  88  63  91 /  70  10   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      65  87  64  90 /  70  10   5  10                                
SALINA          68  89  66  92 /  70  10   5   5                                
MCPHERSON       69  87  66  90 /  70  20   5  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  69  92 /  50  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         72  88  67  90 /  50  50  20  10                                
IOLA            71  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  91 /  50  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
244 PM MDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE A                
S/WV TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TSRA HAS DEVELOPED TO               
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED BY A                       
COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER FORCING AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. SPC RUC             
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRAPHICS ALSO INDICATES SBCAPES OF 2500 J/KG IN              
PLACE WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF.                                       
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND               
THU. SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED BY THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL AID             
IN THE AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO                  
CONTINUE TO RETREAT TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO             
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. NAM/WRF TIME HEIGHT CROSS                    
SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE AND AS WINDS DECOUPLE                
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER TEMP/DEW POINT                 
SPREADS SHOULD BE LARGE ENOUGH TO PREVENT AREAS OF DENSE FOG.                   
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU...A             
SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL HELP PREVENT AFTERNOON               
TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH OUT OF THE 80S. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE            
EAST BY FRI WHILE A SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.                
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH...BOOSTING TEMPS             
A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRI.                                                        
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER               
THE SERN U.S. TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST WHILE A TROF OVER THE PAC NW            
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SAT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN              
THE MODEL DEPICTIONS WERE NOTED AS THE GFS DROPS THIS TROF FURTHER              
TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TRI STATE RGN UNDER THE                  
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. IRREGARDLESS...THE GFS PLACES THE GREATEST              
LIFT AND MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...SO WILL LEAVE SILENT POPS             
AS IS. DAILY HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 90S             
FROM SAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS H85 TEMPS              
CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 30 DEG C. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A             
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL DROP SOUTH TOWARD            
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUE. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL             
HANG UP NORTH OF THE CWA...SO DID KEEP SILENT POPS GOING THEN.                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CLK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
336 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
COLD FRONT SHOWING UP ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH EVEN A FEW                   
CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. EXTRAPOLATION MOVES THIS                  
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 00Z... HOWEVER PER 85-7H NAM12/GFS                    
SEEING SOME MOISTURE ADV AND FGEN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH                
AT LEAST 3Z OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 3Z. FOR THE FIRST 6                  
HOURS WILL USE RADAR TRENDS AND INSTAB AXIS FOR PCPN CHANCES THIS               
EVENING THEN KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR OUR SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE                 
CWA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON 925-7H MOISTURE AND FGEN.                
ALSO BASED ON PRECIP H20 CAN NOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN                
SO RAISED QPF NUMBERS AS WELL. RUC ESTIMATES CAPE IN EXCESS OF                  
2000J/KG ALREADY JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT AND WITH SOME DEEP LAYER              
SHEAR PROGGED LATE TODAY LOOKS LIKE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD THE RIGHT                
IDEA ON SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD OVER OUR EAST BEING MAINLY                        
STRONG WIND AND HAIL.                                                           
NEXT QUESTION REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS...HOW LONG                  
WILL OUR CHANCE OF PCPN LAST. NAM12 KEEPS PCPN IN OUR SRN CWA                   
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE PCPN SOUTH INTO              
OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE                
BASED ON ALL THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS                   
FRONT EARLY TONIGHT SEE LITTLE REASON WHY THIS WILL FAVOR THE GFS               
FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION SO WILL RETAIN WITH A DRY THURSDAY                       
FORECAST.                                                                       
FRONT THEN PROGGED TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON                      
FRIDAY. THIS LIKELY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHC/SLT                
CHC OF TSRA. BETTER CHANCE MAY BE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT DID INTRODUCE                
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME VERY SMALL POPS INTO THE SW LATE FRIDAY                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
MODELS NAMELY THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THE COLD FRONT MOVING THRU                 
WESTERN KS TODAY RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND                
FRIDAY NIGHT AND DO DEVELOP STORMS WITH IT. WILL REINSERT SOME SLGT             
CHC POPS TO COVER. AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST OVER             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. I DID LEAVE SOME ISOLATED 10 POPS OUT WEST             
NEAR THE LEE TROF SATURDAY THRU MONDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE RETURN              
OF SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE BY AROUND               
TUESDAY SO I EXPANDED THE 10 POPS ACROSS THE CWA. THE GFS STILL                 
MAINTAINS THE RIDGE OVER KANSAS AND KEEPS THINGS DRY DURING THIS                
PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN THE 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST WITH MEAN RIDGE                  
POSITION REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE             
RIDGE MAY RETROGRADE WEST LATER ON IN WEEK 2 THOUGH AFTER LOOKING AT            
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS SO A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE IN THE               
OFFING BY MID AUGUST.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  64  86  63  91 /  70  10   0  10                                           
GCK  64  85  62  90 /  30  10   0  10                                           
EHA  65  83  62  89 /  30  30   0  20                                           
LBL  65  83  62  91 /  50  40   0  20                                           
HYS  64  89  64  91 /  80  10   0   0                                           
P28  71  90  67  92 /  90  40   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN18/27                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
300 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS...                                                            
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT...                
RATHER EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST              
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SEVERE STORMS ALREADY SOUTH OF HAYS AND NEAR              
RUSSELL. THE AREA PROFILERS AND RUC MESO FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST                 
SHEAR PROFILE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SUPPORTIVE              
OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL                 
KANSAS. CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MULTI-CELL/LINEAR             
MODE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK               
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION BODING FOR SOME LARGE                 
HAIL AS WELL. WITH A BIT OF A SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL INTACT              
OVER SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS GREATER THAN               
TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RISK LATER THIS EVENING              
AND OVERNIGHT. SO...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL                  
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD              
BE EXCESSIVE TOO.                                                               
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND               
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. GOING MAXS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LOOK OK                  
THOUGH LINGERING CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRI COULD RESULT IN TEMPS EVEN              
A LITTLE BIT COOLER. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO EARLY                  
NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
TIER WILL ENHANCE/SHARPEN A TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING              
A FRONT TO BACKDOOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SO WILL               
MAINTAIN A DRY AND HOT FORECAST...WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.              
DARMOFAL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  68  91 /  60  40  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10                                
NEWTON          69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10                                
ELDORADO        72  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  90  69  92 /  50  50  20  10                                
RUSSELL         64  88  63  91 /  70  10   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      65  87  64  90 /  70  10   5  10                                
SALINA          68  89  66  92 /  70  10   5   5                                
MCPHERSON       69  87  66  90 /  70  20   5  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  69  92 /  50  50  20  10                                
CHANUTE         72  88  67  90 /  50  50  20  10                                
IOLA            71  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  91 /  50  50  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
938 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARIES FOR JULY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.  THESE ARE...          
GRAY MAINE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER PWMCLMGYX/ AT 900 PM.                              
PORTLAND MAINE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER PWMCLMPWM/ AT 920 PM.                          
CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE /AWIPS IDENTIFIER PWMCLMCON AT 935 PM.                    
THESE SUMMARIES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE... WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/GYX/    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH               
NUMBER 672 FOR OUR MAINE ZONES. WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT.        
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVEN KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN                 
LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX                 
UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IT              
MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS IT IS NOW.                                              
DO NOT PLAN ANY OTHER UPDATES TO THE ZONES THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.           
AVIATION...                                                                     
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITY IN HAZE               
AND LIGHT FOG. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND AND              
THURSDAY WILL LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY QUITE A BIT WITH ANY                  
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.                                                          
MARINE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WINDS HAVE GUSTED               
WITH THUNDERSTORMS...35 KNOTS AT MISM1 AND 71 KNOTS AT IOSN3                    
/AFTER A GUST TO 66 KNOTS WHICH WAS PUT IN THE LSR/...BUT HAVE NOW              
DIMINISHED SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT                      
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 633 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 671 IN NH AND TO REMOVE HEAT              
HEADLINES. SVR THREATHAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NH...AND IS REALLY ONLY              
ONGOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS IN ME ATTM. ALMOST ALL OF CWA HAS                
COOLED TO 80F OR BELOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...THOUG TDS STILL              
REMIAN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THESE ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO BE SVR. THEN...ANOTHER STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION                 
WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO...AND COULD AFFECT THE CWA LATER                       
TONIGHT.  -CEMPA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 250 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
LATE TODAY/EARLY EVE...TSRA HAVE BROKEN ACROSS NY/VT IN ADVANCE OF 500          
MB WAVE OVER LK ONTARIO. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS              
WAVE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF TSRA                     
EXPAND...WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NH OVER                
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LKLY BE BOWING LINE                        
SEGMENTS...AS GOOD DEEP LYR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS                             
PRESENT...WHILE FZ LVL ON THE ORDER OF 15K FT...AND -20C LVL AT                 
27K...SO SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES WILL BE LESS LKLY. ALSO WITH PWS              
OF AROUND 2"...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. SVR                
WATCH 671 JUST FOR NH...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF               
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SVR                    
THREAT EXISTS FOR ME THIS EVE.                                                  
HEAT FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN       
100 AND 110 IN THESE AREAS.                                                     
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT LINED UP SOMEWHERE              
ACROSS CWA. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE               
CLOSER TO NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND HAVE WENT WITH POPS THAT                  
REFLECT THIS...THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS INTO                
THU MORNING...WHEN BACK EDGE OF WAVE WILL BE CLEARING CWA TO THE                
EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL FRONT THROUGH              
CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. TDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO              
70F...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL PASS EARLY                 
THU. WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA...SO TEMPS WILL NOT BE               
NEARLY AS HOT. TDS WILL DROP A LITTLE RIGHT BEHIND FRONT INTO THE               
LOW-MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. -CEMPA                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE                
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR                   
NORMAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR/MVFR IN HZ WILL CONTINUE AT ALL                 
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NH                  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT                  
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  -CEMPA             
MARINE...                                                                       
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS. SEAS    
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.         
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
755 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                               
HAVE JUST UPDATED THE ZONES TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH               
NUMBER 672 FOR OUR MAINE ZONES. WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT.        
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                 
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL EVEN KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN                 
LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX                 
UPSTREAM THAT WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH IT              
MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS IT IS NOW.                                              
DO NOT PLAN ANY OTHER UPDATES TO THE ZONES THIS EVENING AT THIS TIME.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CONDITIONS WITH SOME LOWER VISIBILITY IN HAZE               
AND LIGHT FOG. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT AND AND              
THURSDAY WILL LOWER CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY QUITE A BIT WITH ANY                  
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WINDS HAVE GUSTED               
WITH THUNDERSTORMS...35 KNOTS AT MISM1 AND 71 KNOTS AT IOSN3                    
/AFTER A GUST TO 66 KNOTS WHICH WAS PUT IN THE LSR/...BUT HAVE NOW              
DIMINISHED SO WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT                      
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 633 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 671 IN NH AND TO REMOVE HEAT              
HEADLINES. SVR THREATHAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NH...AND IS REALLY ONLY              
ONGOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS IN ME ATTM. ALMOST ALL OF CWA HAS                
COOLED TO 80F OR BELOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...THOUG TDS STILL              
REMIAN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THESE ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO BE SVR. THEN...ANOTHER STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION                 
WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO...AND COULD AFFECT THE CWA LATER                       
TONIGHT.  -CEMPA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 250 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
LATE TODAY/EARLY EVE...TSRA HAVE BROKEN ACROSS NY/VT IN ADVANCE OF 500          
MB WAVE OVER LK ONTARIO. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS              
WAVE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF TSRA                     
EXPAND...WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NH OVER                
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LKLY BE BOWING LINE                        
SEGMENTS...AS GOOD DEEP LYR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS                             
PRESENT...WHILE FZ LVL ON THE ORDER OF 15K FT...AND -20C LVL AT                 
27K...SO SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES WILL BE LESS LKLY. ALSO WITH PWS              
OF AROUND 2"...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. SVR                
WATCH 671 JUST FOR NH...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF               
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SVR                    
THREAT EXISTS FOR ME THIS EVE.                                                  
HEAT FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN       
100 AND 110 IN THESE AREAS.                                                     
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT LINED UP SOMEWHERE              
ACROSS CWA. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE               
CLOSER TO NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND HAVE WENT WITH POPS THAT                  
REFLECT THIS...THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS INTO                
THU MORNING...WHEN BACK EDGE OF WAVE WILL BE CLEARING CWA TO THE                
EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL FRONT THROUGH              
CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. TDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO              
70F...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL PASS EARLY                 
THU. WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA...SO TEMPS WILL NOT BE               
NEARLY AS HOT. TDS WILL DROP A LITTLE RIGHT BEHIND FRONT INTO THE               
LOW-MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. -CEMPA                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE                
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR                   
NORMAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR/MVFR IN HZ WILL CONTINUE AT ALL                 
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NH                  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT                  
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  -CEMPA             
MARINE...                                                                       
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS. SEAS    
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.         
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
633 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
QUICK ZONE UPDATE TO CANCEL SVR WATCH 671 IN NH AND TO REMOVE HEAT              
HEADLINES. SVR THREATHAS DIMINISHED ACROSS NH...AND IS REALLY ONLY              
ONGOING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS IN ME ATTM. ALMOST ALL OF CWA HAS                
COOLED TO 80F OR BELOW IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION...THOUG TDS STILL              
REMIAN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL MOVE               
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THESE ARE NOT                  
EXPECTED TO BE SVR. THEN...ANOTHER STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION                 
WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO...AND COULD AFFECT THE CWA LATER                       
TONIGHT.  -CEMPA                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 250 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
LATE TODAY/EARLY EVE...TSRA HAVE BROKEN ACROSS NY/VT IN ADVANCE OF 500          
MB WAVE OVER LK ONTARIO. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS              
WAVE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF TSRA                     
EXPAND...WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NH OVER                
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LKLY BE BOWING LINE                        
SEGMENTS...AS GOOD DEEP LYR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS                             
PRESENT...WHILE FZ LVL ON THE ORDER OF 15K FT...AND -20C LVL AT                 
27K...SO SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES WILL BE LESS LKLY. ALSO WITH PWS              
OF AROUND 2"...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. SVR                
WATCH 671 JUST FOR NH...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF               
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SVR                    
THREAT EXISTS FOR ME THIS EVE.                                                  
HEAT FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN       
100 AND 110 IN THESE AREAS.                                                     
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT LINED UP SOMEWHERE              
ACROSS CWA. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE               
CLOSER TO NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND HAVE WENT WITH POPS THAT                  
REFLECT THIS...THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS INTO                
THU MORNING...WHEN BACK EDGE OF WAVE WILL BE CLEARING CWA TO THE                
EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL FRONT THROUGH              
CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. TDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO              
70F...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL PASS EARLY                 
THU. WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA...SO TEMPS WILL NOT BE               
NEARLY AS HOT. TDS WILL DROP A LITTLE RIGHT BEHIND FRONT INTO THE               
LOW-MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. -CEMPA                                          
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE                
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR                   
NORMAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR/MVFR IN HZ WILL CONTINUE AT ALL                 
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NH                  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT                  
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  -CEMPA             
MARINE...                                                                       
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS. SEAS    
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.         
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
250 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
LATE TODAY/EARLY EVE...TSRA HAVE BROKEN ACROSS NY/VT IN ADVANCE OF 500          
MB WAVE OVER LK ONTARIO. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS              
WAVE. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST...SHOULD SEE COVERAGE OF TSRA                     
EXPAND...WITH SOME STRONGER STORMS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NH OVER                
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LKLY BE BOWING LINE                        
SEGMENTS...AS GOOD DEEP LYR UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS                             
PRESENT...WHILE FZ LVL ON THE ORDER OF 15K FT...AND -20C LVL AT                 
27K...SO SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES WILL BE LESS LKLY. ALSO WITH PWS              
OF AROUND 2"...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL. SVR                
WATCH 671 JUST FOR NH...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF               
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO SEE WHAT KIND OF SVR                    
THREAT EXISTS FOR ME THIS EVE.                                                  
HEAT FLAGS WILL CONTINUE THRU 22Z...AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN       
100 AND 110 IN THESE AREAS.                                                     
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...A SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT LINED UP SOMEWHERE              
ACROSS CWA. EXACT LOCATION UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT/LL BE               
CLOSER TO NRN AND CENTRAL ZONES...AND HAVE WENT WITH POPS THAT                  
REFLECT THIS...THOUGH ALL ZONES WILL HAVE AT LEAST CHC POPS INTO                
THU MORNING...WHEN BACK EDGE OF WAVE WILL BE CLEARING CWA TO THE                
EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL FRONT THROUGH              
CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. TDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO              
70F...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NRN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL PASS EARLY                 
THU. WILL SEE LOTS OF CLOUDS AND SHRA/TSRA...SO TEMPS WILL NOT BE               
NEARLY AS HOT. TDS WILL DROP A LITTLE RIGHT BEHIND FRONT INTO THE               
LOW-MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. -CEMPA                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHANCE              
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF CWA. HIGH PRESSURE                
BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...AND CONTINUES              
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR                   
NORMAL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY...BRINGING                   
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VARIABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN VFR/MVFR IN HZ WILL CONTINUE AT ALL                 
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NH                  
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AT ALL TERMINALS RIGHT                  
THRU THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY LOWERING VIS TO IFR BRIEFLY.  -CEMPA             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXCEPT FOR CONVECTION TODAY INTO THURSDAY...PRETTY QUIET ON THE WATERS. SEAS    
MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.         
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MEZ018-023 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MEZ012-019>021-024>026 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.             
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NHZ003>006 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                         
  ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NHZ007>010-013-014 UNTIL 6 PM                   
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1058 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS                
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT                 
BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO CENTRAL AND                      
DOWNEAST MAINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE                 
COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE MAINE COAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW                
PRESSURE TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MAY KEEP                       
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE.              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY                
BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATER                
IN THE WEEK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS MORNING. DEW POINT                 
TEMPS LOWERING OVER NORTHERN AREAS. PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON                      
CONTINUES TO BE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS               
LOCATED SOUTH OF THIS FRONT. SHOULD STAY BELOW HEAT ADV CRITERIA                
BUT HEAT INDEX SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HAVE UPDATED HWO              
AND SUPPLEMENTED WITH SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AS WELL AS                          
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...BASED ON LATEST                  
GUIDANCE...LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AIRMASS               
(VERSUS AND MCC'S). HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON POPS AND WORDING.               
ANOTHER ROUND OF MCC'S SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON                  
THURSDAY. THESE STILL POSE THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY                 
RAIN.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MINOR UPDATE TO WINDS BASED ON LATEST RUC...NO OTHER CHANGES.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SYNOPSIS...HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS                 
ALL OF THE REGION TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY TO EAST CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE DURING              
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST                 
OFF THE MAINE COAST LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST                    
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE MAY KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON                      
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL                   
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THURSDAY BRINGING COOLER                   
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.                   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT APCHG NRN PTNS THE FA MIDDAY AND              
THEN SLIDING SE THRU THE FA DURING THE AFT AND EVE HRS. THIS WILL ALLOW         
THE FA ONE DAY OF WARMTH AND HEAT TDY FROM THE TORRID MID ATLC STATES           
HEAT WV...BEFORE SHWRS AND TSTMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                
THIS AFT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT MAY SLIP THRU THE NRN                  
MOST ZONES BY CONVECTIVE INTIATION TIME...LIMITING THE CVRG AND                 
SEVERITY OF STORMS THERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST                 
MAINE...HI TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACCOMPANIED BY                   
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SHOULD INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS               
BY MID TO LATE AFT...SOME POSSIBLE SVR. BUFKIT GFS AND WRF CAPES                
APPEAR UNDERDONE GIVEN UNDERESTIMATION OF HI TEMPS...SPCLY                      
CONSIDERING 925 MB TEMPS APCHG +25 DEG C OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA BY              
MID AFT.                                                                        
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MID LVL CAP OF ABOUT A DEG OR TWO C AND                 
AN ASSOCIATED MIX LAYER...THAT MAY HOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT OFF UNTIL              
CONVECTIVE SFC TEMPS ARE MET ARND MID AFT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN               
EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH APPROXIMATE SFC BASED CAPE                      
ENVIRONMENT OF 1000 TO 2000 J. ENOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT               
FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS ERLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT...WITH               
BOWING LN SEGMENTS POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING AS HEAVY PRECIP FALLING              
WITH DOWNDRAFTS ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND ASSOCIATED                    
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE MID LVL ENVIRONMENTAL MIXED LAYER.                   
ANY TSTMS OR TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE E OF THE FA BY LATE TNGT AS               
OVERRUNNING FROM A SFC WV OF LOW PRES BEGINS TO AFFECT W CNTRL                  
PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT.                                                       
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SIMILAR IN BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE                  
GULF OF MAINE THEN MOVING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. HAVE                    
INITIALIZED POP GRIDS WITH A MAV/MET COMBINATION BUT HAVE INCREASED             
POPS IN THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MAY                      
POSITION ITSELF CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN DEPICTED BY THE MODELS.                
THE DEW POINT...TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS HAVE BEEN CREATED WITH               
A MAV/MET COMBINATION. THE QPF AND THE SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN                      
GENERATED WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM.                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG ERLY                  
THIS MORN AND WITH TSTMS ACROSS MSLY KHUL AND KBGR THIS AFT AND                 
ERLY EVE.                                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
HAVE INITIALIZED WIND GRIDS WITH THE NAM12 WHICH CONTINUES TO                   
DEMONSTRATE BEST PERFORMANCE NUMBERS IN THE LIGHT WIND MARINE                   
LAYER ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE GRIDS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WITH THE                
WNA WAVE WATCH III. BASED ON THE SPECTRAL WAVE FIELDS...EXPECT                  
BACK-GROUND SWELL RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE               
REMAINDER OF COMBINED SEAS RESULT OF LOCAL WINDS...SO HAVE                      
ADJUSTED SEAS LOWER BY 1 FOOT.                                                  
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
SHORT TERM...VJN LONG TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE                                     
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...LULOFS                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
630 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SAGINAW BAY THIS EVENING...THEN            
DROP SOUTH OVER THE MBS/FNT AREAS BY 06Z. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED                   
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS MID LEVEL CAP STILL IN PLACE               
AND NO SYNOPTIC FORCING. AS A RESULT VFR CONDTIONS TO CONTINUE                  
THROUGH 06Z FOR DTW AREA...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDTIONS DEVELOPING              
OVER THE FNT/MBS AREAS 02-06Z AS BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS             
ALONG COLD FRONT AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MBS/FNT                
AREAS LIKELY TO BE HARDEST HIT WITH CONVECTION AS MCS DEVELOPING                
OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR NOSE OF LOW LEVEL...TO TRACK                    
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY 06Z. LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...AND               
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN WEAKER CONVECTION FOR DTW AREA            
06-12Z...SO ANTICIPATE JUST PATCHY MVFR CONDTIONS THERE 06-12Z.                 
MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVER DOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND COLD                   
FRONT...SO WILL JUST MENTION MID LEVEL CLOUD BASE FOR MBS/FNT 06-12Z.           
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AFTER 12Z...WITH             
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN DTW AREA BY 15Z...THEN BROKEN CU FIELD              
WITH BASES AROUND 040 FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ANOTHER SCORCHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. RELIEF IS ON THE WAY...IN               
THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT IS NOW STRETCHING              
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GOOD              
CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE                  
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPES            
BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. LAPS DATA NOW INDICATING NO CAP/CIN. RUC             
ANALYSIS INDICATING A 70 KNOT 500 MB JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN                
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD GET INTO THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD              
TO AT LEAST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.             
DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WINDS) WITH EVENTUAL SHORT            
BOW LINES WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. WITH THE              
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SOME LOCALIZED            
FLOODING IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. PW VALUES TO              
RISE OVER 2 INCHES...850 MB DEW POINTS OVER 15 C...700 MB DEW POINTS            
OVER 5 C.                                                                       
THE PROBLEM IS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER OVERNIGHT...IN              
TERMS OF POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY               
WILL BE GONE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                        
NONE-THE-LESS...STORMS WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER THIS                 
MORNING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED MCS.               
WOULD NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...AND WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN                 
THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE.                                          
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 12Z NAM TIMING OVER            
THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH           
THIS FRONT. BASED ON THE NAM...THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN            
MICHIGAN BORDER UNTIL TOMORROW...WHICH SUPPORTS A MODERATE CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.                  
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH                
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE TOO FAR OFF...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONROE/LENAWEE              
COUNTIES TOMORROW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                    
SURFACE RIDGE STRONGLY BUILDING IN AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG               
SOUTHEAST. AT 500 MB...BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA                 
EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING.                                                      
GIVEN RATHER DRY AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND GENERAL LOW             
TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DESCENT AS SUGGESTED AS PER OMEGA                       
FIELDS...300 TO 500 MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND 305K ISENTROPIC                 
DESCENT...THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME PROMISES TO BE               
RATHER TRANQUIL. MORE SEASONABLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND                      
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXCEPTION BEING CHANCE OF            
LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING.                    
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...                                                       
WEAK 500 MB RIDGE/RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN STATES UNTIL EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
RIDING THE WESTERLIES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA TO OVER OR JUST              
NORTH OF NORTHERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT TO THIS...THE              
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO THE EAST...ALLOWING RISING AMPLIFICATION               
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK OF WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. AT THE             
SURFACE...CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED.               
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH            
IS SLATED TO REACH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THE               
AREA MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF...THOUGH ALSO SHOWING MONDAY FRONTAL                     
CLEARANCE...TENDING SLOWER DOING SO THAN GFS/DGEX AND OVERNIGHT                 
CANADIAN GLOBAL. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS               
SEEN DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.                                  
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT INTO THE                  
WEEKEND AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES            
OF PAST FEW DAYS. WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS                  
SLIGHTLY RISE...HAVE BOOSTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY.                                                                       
OTHERWISE...SEEING LITTLE REASON TO IMPLEMENT MUCH FORECAST CHANGE              
THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY BOLSTERED BY FIELDS SUCH AS 06Z DGEX INCREASED 700 MB                
OMEGA ASCENT...QPF AND 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE FIELDS. 12Z GFS                  
SIMILAR FIELDS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. LOW POPS FOR               
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HEAT ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-          
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-                   
     MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES THU INTO THE WEEKEND.                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MAINLY ZONAL PATTERN ACRS               
THE NRN CONUS. AT THE SFC(18Z)...THE TROF/FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN               
LWR MI TO NE IA. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN WAS EXITING THE CWA AS            
THE SUPPORTING SHRTWV OVER NRN LK MI AND UPR LVL DIV WITH THE RIGHT             
ENTRANCE OF THE H25 JET...SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. SOME ISOLD -SHRA               
JUST N OF THE FRONT OVER NE WI INTO S UPR MI AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK              
SHRTWV. VIS LOOP SHOWED CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE W                 
THIRD OF UPR MI AS DRIER AIR TO THE NW (DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO               
MID 50S) OVER NRN MN...BEGIN TO FILTER INTO UPR MI. SOME -SHRA                  
LINGERED YET OVER NE MN SUPPORTED BY 700-500 MB FGEN.                           
TONIGHT...MDLS SUGGEST ANY MID LVL FORCING WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING             
WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE IN WITH NWRLY ACYC LOW LVL FLOW.              
HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD -SHRA MAY STILL LINGER OVER THE SE PORTION OF              
THE CWA EARLY THIS EVENING...PER RADAR TRENDS. GRADUALLY CLEARING               
SKIES SHOULD ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP             
OVERNIGHT. WITH MOIST SOIL AND ONLY LIMITED MIXING THIS AFTERNOON               
(DEWPOINTS LINGERING AROUND 60)EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP.                  
THU...WITH DECENT DIURNAL HEATING PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE MID 80S                
SOUTH...NAM/GFS FCST SNDGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES MAY CLIMB INTO THE             
500-1000 J/KG RANGE IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                
THIS WAS ENOUGH FOR THE 12Z NAM AND RUC13 CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TO                 
PRODUCE QPF OVER INTERIOR UPR MI. HOWEVER...EXPECT MLCAPE VALUES TO             
REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG WITH FCST SNDGS AND UPSTREAM 12Z KINL SNDG                  
SUGGESTING MOISTURE WOULD MIX OUT PUSHING SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE                
LOWER 50S. IN ADDITION FAIRLY DRY AIR ABV 700 MB AND RELATIVELY                 
SHALLOW CAPE LAYER WOULD ALSO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR PCPN.                          
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...WITH WNW FLOW DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM PLAINS            
RDG AND DEVELOPING SFC...WAA PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHRA/TSRA            
VCNTY 850-700 WARM FRONT. NAM/GFS 305K-310K FCST SUGGESTS DECENT                
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION SPREADING FROM NE MN TOWARD LK                
SUPERIOR AND UPR MI. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH POSITION OF ANY                   
SHRA/TSRA SO LEFT ONLY SLGT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW WITH GREATER CHANCE             
OVER THE KEWEENAW.                                                              
SAT...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB AOA GUIDANCE INTO THE MID 80S OR CLOSE TO              
90 AS WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 18C AHEAD OF               
THE TROF MOVING TOWARD THE UPR MS VALLEY.                                       
SUN-WED...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS REMAINED IN REASONABLY GOOD                     
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES              
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SO...FOLLOWED THE 06Z/12Z GFS             
FOR THE DETAILS. SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM CNTRL CANADA               
AND WRN ONTARIO WILL BRING COOLER DRIER AIR INTO UPR MI MON INTO                
WED. NEXT WEEK                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
417 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ANOTHER SCORCHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. RELIEF IS ON THE WAY...IN               
THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT IS NOW STRETCHING              
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GOOD              
CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE                  
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPES            
BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. LAPS DATA NOW INDICATING NO CAP/CIN. RUC             
ANALYSIS INDICATING A 70 KNOT 500 MB JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN                
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD GET INTO THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD              
TO AT LEAST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.             
DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WINDS) WITH EVENTUAL SHORT            
BOW LINES WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. WITH THE              
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SOME LOCALIZED            
FLOODING IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. PW VALUES TO              
RISE OVER 2 INCHES...850 MB DEW POINTS OVER 15 C...700 MB DEW POINTS            
OVER 5 C.                                                                       
THE PROBLEM IS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER OVERNIGHT...IN              
TERMS OF POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY               
WILL BE GONE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                        
NONE-THE-LESS...STORMS WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER THIS                 
MORNING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED MCS.               
WOULD NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...AND WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN                 
THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE.                                          
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 12Z NAM TIMING OVER            
THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH           
THIS FRONT. BASED ON THE NAM...THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN            
MICHIGAN BORDER UNTIL TOMORROW...WHICH SUPPORTS A MODERATE CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.                  
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH                
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE TOO FAR OFF...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONROE/LENAWEE              
COUNTIES TOMORROW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                    
SURFACE RIDGE STRONGLY BUILDING IN AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG               
SOUTHEAST. AT 500 MB...BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA                 
EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING.                                                      
GIVEN RATHER DRY AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND GENERAL LOW             
TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DESCENT AS SUGGESTED AS PER OMEGA                       
FIELDS...300 TO 500 MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND 305K ISENTROPIC                 
DESCENT...THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME PROMISES TO BE               
RATHER TRANQUIL. MORE SEASONABLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND                      
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXCEPTION BEING CHANCE OF            
LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING.                    
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...                                                       
WEAK 500 MB RIDGE/RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN STATES UNTIL EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
RIDING THE WESTERLIES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA TO OVER OR JUST              
NORTH OF NORTHERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT TO THIS...THE              
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO THE EAST...ALLOWING RISING AMPLIFICATION               
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK OF WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. AT THE             
SURFACE...CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED.               
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH            
IS SLATED TO REACH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THE               
AREA MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF...THOUGH ALSO SHOWING MONDAY FRONTAL                     
CLEARANCE...TENDING SLOWER DOING SO THAN GFS/DGEX AND OVERNIGHT                 
CANADIAN GLOBAL. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS               
SEEN DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.                                  
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT INTO THE                  
WEEKEND AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES            
OF PAST FEW DAYS. WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS                  
SLIGHTLY RISE...HAVE BOOSTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY.                                                                       
OTHERWISE...SEEING LITTLE REASON TO IMPLEMENT MUCH FORECAST CHANGE              
THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY BOLSTERED BY FIELDS SUCH AS 06Z DGEX INCREASED 700 MB                
OMEGA ASCENT...QPF AND 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE FIELDS. 12Z GFS                  
SIMILAR FIELDS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. LOW POPS FOR               
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 110 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
AWAITING ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS            
IN THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WHICH DOES              
NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING UNTIL AROUND 00Z ACROSS MBS...AND PROBABLY             
NOT UNTIL AFT 6Z ACROSS THE DETROIT TAFS WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES                
WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER. THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HAVING A             
TOUGH TIME SINKING SOUTH AS MAIN JET CORE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH              
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO             
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE STATE UNTIL TOMORROW (SIMILAR TO 12Z NAM).                   
EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS JUST BEHIND THE                      
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH STORMS. NOT             
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MENTION ANY                 
SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IT STILL IS                    
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COULD GO SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED                
WITH MINIMAL CAP IN PLACE AND ANY WEAK CONVERGENCE.                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HEAT ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-          
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-                   
     MIZ082-MIZ083...UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY.                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
AVIATION...SF                                                                   
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN WI SHOWS SIGNS OF SAGGING SOUTH OF UPR MI THIS               
AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS                
CONSISTENT WITH 12Z RUC AND NAM SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE BEST 310K                  
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 800-700 MB FGEN FORCING SAGGING SOUTH OF                    
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.                                                     
RADAR LOOP ALSO SEEMS TO SUPPORT GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND OF                   
UPSTREAM PCPN AND ADVANCE OF DRYING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A SHARP             
CUTOFF IN MSTR AS NOTED ON 12Z SNDGS. THE 12Z MPX SNDG IS QUITE                 
MOIST THROUGHOUT WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WHILE THE KINL                
SNDG IS VERY DRY BLO 15 KFT.                                                    
SO WILL CONTINUE TRENDING BACK OR ENDING SHOWERS FROM THE WEST IN               
LINE WITH 12Z RUC AND PERHAPS DIMINISH RAIN QUICKER THAN GOING FCST             
GRIDS/ZFP. ALSO ALLOWED EARLY MORNING FLOOD ADVISORY TO EXPIRE OVER             
MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES AS HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF                 
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN            
U.S. WITH A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AROUND             
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES KICKING              
OFF CONVECTION WITH THE RING OF FIRE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS                   
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND THIS HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION OVER THE              
CWA THIS EVENING. MORE CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT IN ERN NEB AND NW             
IA AND THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS THE CWA THIS                
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS NE.                                     
NAM SHOWING THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND AS               
THE SHORTWAVES HEADS AWAY TONIGHT...THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END.               
NAM THEN KEEPS THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH FRI WITH ZONAL             
FLOW.                                                                           
NAM SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING IN THIS MORNING              
AND MOVING OUT TONIGHT. 1000-500 RH INCREASES THIS MORNING...THEN               
PUSHES EASTWARD TO THE ERN HALF OF CWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. NAM SHOWING              
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I300K-I315K SURFACES THIS MORNING               
MOVING OUT BY 00Z TONIGHT. GFS SHOWING THE SAME THING WITH ITS                  
ISENTROPIC SURFACES. BASED ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT...WILL                
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TODAY WITH LESSENING              
POPS THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GET AND THIS LINES UP WELL WITH WHAT IS              
OCCURRING ON RADAR. ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DELTA AND MENOMINEE             
COUNTY BASED ON HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG RETURNS ON                
KGRB RADAR AND BASED ALSO ON THE FACT THAT WAUSAU WI HAS RECEIVED               
OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN ABOUT 2-3 HOURS AS OF 330 AM EDT AND OTHER             
PLACES IN WI ARE GETTING OVER ONE INCH AN HOUR RATES. THE STRONG                
RETURNS ARE HEADED FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. HEAVY RAIN SHOULD COME TO              
AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS            
START TO DEPART...BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW PLACES                 
ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD SEE UP TO 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY. IT HAS               
BEEN DRY THOUGH...SO WILL NOT GO WITH ANY FLOOD PRODUCTS SO FAR                 
EXCEPT THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DELTA AND MENOMINEE COUNTIES AND THIS             
MIGHT NEED TO BE REISSUED LATER THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON RAINFALL              
RATES AND RADAR COVERAGE.                                                       
NAM SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I300K-I315K SURFACES AGAIN FOR FRI               
NIGHT AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT HINTED AT BY THE GFS AS LOOKS LIKE A WARM            
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BASED ON 1000-500 MB THICKNESS            
PACKING. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD FOR THIS SCENARIO AND WILL                
CONTINUE IT INTO SAT MORNING.                                                   
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKED GOOD EXCEPT MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO                 
TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
MICHELS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
221 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT             
OF PRECIP/CONVECTION THROUGH DAY ONE.  FORECAST BECOMES QUIETER...              
AND MILDER BEYOND THAT.                                                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS                     
FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS NICELY THIS MORNING.  THIS HAS BLOWN UP               
OUT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                    
MIDWEST.  MORE CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-74 CORRIDOR.                                            
MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY MUCH DROPPED THE BALL            
RIGHT FROM THE INITIALIZATION PERIOD WITH THIS MCS... BOTH NAM AND              
GFS ALIKE.  RUC ANALYZED THE SITUATION WELL ENOUGH... BUT                       
MYSTERIOUSLY DROPPED OUR MCS SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD.                             
BASED ON TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS... CURRENT MCS SHOULD CONTINUE                 
EASTWARD INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...               
MAINLY BEFORE 12Z... AND BEGIN TO DECAY ONCE IT GETS EAST OF WHERE              
THE LLJ IS MORE PRONOUNCED.  SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS APPEARS TO BE             
DECAYING THE MOST... AS IT IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER LOW                 
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY.  BASICALLY... IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BEST                 
NORTH OF WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.              
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE                  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  MAIN                   
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE I-74 AND I-72             
CORRIDORS WHERE PRECIP MAY TEND TO TRAIN DUE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF              
THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.  FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH... BUT                
WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...              
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TRAINING TO CAUSE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.  STILL              
THINK THE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONS            
PLUS LACK OF RECENT RAINS... THAT NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS               
POINT.                                                                          
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THIS MORNING BY               
NOCTURNAL INVERSION KEEPING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT... EXCEPT IN                   
ISOLATED AREAS... AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR              
LARGE HAIL.  BEST BET FOR SVR WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... WHERE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL              
PROMOTE RAPID SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS APPROACHING              
THE LOWER 90S.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...                    
ALLOWING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG EITHER THE COLD FRONT            
ITSELF... OR ANY NUMBER OF LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDING IT.            
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON... WARRANTING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH              
TOMORROW.                                                                       
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
GUIDANCE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL                 
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SUGGESTS EVENTUAL RETROGRESSION OF            
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE IT BELONGS... AND THE            
SETTING UP OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST BY EARLY                
NEXT WEEK.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT              
LAKES IN THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME... AND THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE            
TO BE RATHER WOUND UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STILL... THIS SUPPORTS                 
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF             
A WET PERIOD SETTING UP TOWARDS THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SETUP ACROSS THE AREA... AND NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
420 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE THIS MORNING.                        
AT 07Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN                      
ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO SRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO ILLINOIS...NRN                
MISSOURI AND NRN KANSAS.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH                    
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                
OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM-WRF AND GFS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON            
THE CURRENT FCST SITUATION.  THUS...HAVE RELIED ON THE LATEST RUC40             
MODEL AND CURRENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.                    
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY INTO OUR                 
REGION HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  ONE OF                      
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONVECTION OCCURRING                
ACRS W CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING FAIRLY             
FAST...ABOUT 40 TO 50 MPH...TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS FEATURE...IN                
COMBINATION WITH LOW LVL WAA/LOW LVL JET...WILL RESULT IN AN                    
INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACRS THE REGION LATER THIS                 
MORNING.  ALSO...THIS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR                 
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY.  TO ADD INSULT              
TO INJURY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED S/WV ACRS NE            
KS/NW MISSOURI.  THIS SYSTEM...AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST RUC40 MODEL              
IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO NW INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z...PROVIDING              
UPR LVL LIFT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT OF ALL THESE             
FACTORS...HAVE EMPLOYED LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.               
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE                
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.  THUS...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN              
THE ZONES.  HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ATTM IN                     
COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES (IND/ILN) AS CURRENT 1 HOUR FFG                
VALUES ARE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL             
BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME URBAN AND                
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED.  AS FOR HIGH TEMPS                 
TODAY...IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN WARM START...AND HIGH                     
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TWEAKED PREVIOUS                    
FORECAST VALUES SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST TO              
THE UPPER 80S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.                                                  
FOR TONIGHT...ONCE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV RIPPLES BY TO THE EAST...THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE A MORE PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA.             
WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS            
MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON TIMING OF MENTIONED SYSTEMS.                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM....                                                                  
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE PERIOD DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE              
OF STORMS MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE                      
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH COOL AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO               
THE AREA. THE NEW 03/00Z MEX FOLLOWED THE 02/00Z KEEPING HIGHS ABOVE            
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. THIS WARM PATTERN APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 850 MB             
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 16C. TIMING OF COOL FRONT MONDAY ALONG WITH A                 
CHANCE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL                   
PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS             
RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND              
WEDNESDAY. THIS COOLER PATTERN IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE NEW MEX MOS             
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE             
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN GIVEN THE HIGH CORRELATION WITH THE ANALOGS OF              
GFS RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLE ANALOGS AND THE CANADIAN ANALOGS THAT MATCH             
THIS PATTERN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
110 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SOUTH FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY INTO THE DTW AREA            
AROUND 09-12Z. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT...BUT WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO               
DIMINISH. ANTICIPATE ONLY PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN DTW AREA 08-12Z.            
AC DECK IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT            
IN MBS/FNT AREAS. AT THIS TIME ANTICIPATE AREAS MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FOR             
FNT AND MBS AREAS...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION AIDS IN CONDENSATION. BAND            
OF MVFR CIGS ALREADY FORMING NORTH OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY. LINGERING             
MVFR CIGS IN DTW AREA TO MIX OUT BY 14-16Z...BUT VFR CLOUD BASES 4-5            
KFT TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW            
TO SCOUR OUT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE               
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE            
ENTIRE REGION 00-06Z...WITH CU FIELD SCATTERING OUT AS WELL.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 417 PM WEDNESDAY                                   
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
ANOTHER SCORCHER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 90S                
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. RELIEF IS ON THE WAY...IN               
THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT IS NOW STRETCHING              
FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. GOOD              
CONVECTION IS FINALLY STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE                  
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 100 MB MLCAPES            
BETWEEN 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. LAPS DATA NOW INDICATING NO CAP/CIN. RUC             
ANALYSIS INDICATING A 70 KNOT 500 MB JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN                
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA SHOULD GET INTO THE               
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD              
TO AT LEAST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.             
DECENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER (DAMAGING WINDS) WITH EVENTUAL SHORT            
BOW LINES WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. WITH THE              
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT SOME LOCALIZED            
FLOODING IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS. PW VALUES TO              
RISE OVER 2 INCHES...850 MB DEW POINTS OVER 15 C...700 MB DEW POINTS            
OVER 5 C.                                                                       
THE PROBLEM IS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER OVERNIGHT...IN              
TERMS OF POPS AND SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY               
WILL BE GONE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.                        
NONE-THE-LESS...STORMS WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER THIS                 
MORNING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED MCS.               
WOULD NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...AND WILL INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN                 
THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE.                                          
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE 12Z NAM TIMING OVER            
THE GFS WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING. THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH           
THIS FRONT. BASED ON THE NAM...THE FRONT DOES NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN            
MICHIGAN BORDER UNTIL TOMORROW...WHICH SUPPORTS A MODERATE CHANCE OF            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER.                  
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH                
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK              
TO BE TOO FAR OFF...AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONROE/LENAWEE              
COUNTIES TOMORROW WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.                                
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...                                                    
SURFACE RIDGE STRONGLY BUILDING IN AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG               
SOUTHEAST. AT 500 MB...BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLEARING THE AREA                 
EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING.                                                      
GIVEN RATHER DRY AIR MASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AND GENERAL LOW             
TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DESCENT AS SUGGESTED AS PER OMEGA                       
FIELDS...300 TO 500 MB QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND 305K ISENTROPIC                 
DESCENT...THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME PROMISES TO BE               
RATHER TRANQUIL. MORE SEASONABLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND                      
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EXCEPTION BEING CHANCE OF            
LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTHERN BORDER COUNTIES THURSDAY EVENING.                    
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT...                                                       
WEAK 500 MB RIDGE/RATHER ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN STATES UNTIL EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
RIDING THE WESTERLIES EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA TO OVER OR JUST              
NORTH OF NORTHERN LAKES REGION BY SUNDAY. SUBSEQUENT TO THIS...THE              
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO THE EAST...ALLOWING RISING AMPLIFICATION               
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK OF WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. AT THE             
SURFACE...CONSIDERABLY BETTER THAN AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT NOTED.               
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHICH            
IS SLATED TO REACH FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE CLEARING THE               
AREA MONDAY. 00Z ECMWF...THOUGH ALSO SHOWING MONDAY FRONTAL                     
CLEARANCE...TENDING SLOWER DOING SO THAN GFS/DGEX AND OVERNIGHT                 
CANADIAN GLOBAL. FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS               
SEEN DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK.                                  
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RECOVER A BIT INTO THE                  
WEEKEND AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES            
OF PAST FEW DAYS. WITH MODEST RETURN FLOW AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS                  
SLIGHTLY RISE...HAVE BOOSTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES                   
SLIGHTLY.                                                                       
OTHERWISE...SEEING LITTLE REASON TO IMPLEMENT MUCH FORECAST CHANGE              
THROUGH MID WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY BOLSTERED BY FIELDS SUCH AS 06Z DGEX INCREASED 700 MB                
OMEGA ASCENT...QPF AND 1000 TO 500 MB MOISTURE FIELDS. 12Z GFS                  
SIMILAR FIELDS ARE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. LOW POPS FOR               
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY STILL LOOK GOOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....DG                                                                 
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DWD                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
228 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT WAVE WHICH CAME OUT OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND BROUGHT             
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL BE            
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL WAVE                
BEING KICKED OUT BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH PROFILERS SHOW                 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL                    
NEBRASKA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS SECONDARY WAVE MAY PRODUCE               
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                  
MORNING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT...PER THE NAM/WRF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH             
SOME DOUBT IN THESE MODELS SINCE THEY DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY                
GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL WAVE COMING THROUGH AT THIS TIME.  RUC               
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN...AND IT TOO PRODUCES              
SOME PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE 850 FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL            
MISSOURI...SO WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THAT AREA.                      
FURTHER SOUTH...ONGOING PRECIPITATION NEAR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE PAST 12Z...BUT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING FURTHER TO               
THE SOUTH...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT                  
SHOULD ALSO BE SLIDING SOUTH OF AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN               
FOR THIS MORNING...BUT CUT BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY               
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA STILL WITH MENTION OF              
PRECIPITATION AS 850 FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.                            
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP             
THINGS DRY. SOME CONCERN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP FRIDAY                
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE             
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE WILL SET UP...WITH THE            
NAM/WRF POINTING MORE TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN                    
MISSOURI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE WEST IN                
KANSAS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS                 
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                                         
FINALLY WILL HAVE A BREAK FROM THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TODAY               
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING TO BELOW 20 DEGREES. THIS              
SLIGHT COOL DOWN SHOULD LAST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS            
GRADUALLY SWING FROM THE NORTH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WARM UP ON             
SATURDAY HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP.             
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE              
BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS SOLUTION                                                
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
331 PM CDT WED...                                                               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...                                                  
WELL DEFINED (ALTHOUGH WEAKLY CONVERGED) SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES                
FROM EXTREME NW MO TO NEAR SALINA KS TO HAYS KS AT 20Z. EXPLOSIVE               
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW            
NEAR KHYS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE             
I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARD SALINA. FURTHER EAST...EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD                
COVER HAS PERSISTED OVER ERN KS/NW MO...LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND            
DELAYING THE EROSION OF THE CAP. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE (40 KNOT) 500MB               
FLOW OBSERVED ON HILLSBORO KS/FAIRBURY NE PROFILERS WITHIN THE                  
MID-UPPER LEVEL MOIST AXIS...I DO EXPECT ANY FURTHER EROSION OF THIS            
CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THESE LEVELS SHOULD                
CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                                  
THEREFORE...DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION                 
THROUGH 00Z AS EASTWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS                   
EMBEDDED BENEATH HIGH CLOUD COVER AND REDUCED INSOLATION. CONVECTION            
WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL AFTER DARK WITH THE APPROACH OF AN ELONGATED             
VORTICITY LOBE ANALYZED UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN KS. STRONG LOW LEVEL              
ISENTROPIC PRESSURE ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE THE ASCENT NECESSARY FOR             
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. AS NOTED IN                  
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH               
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONTINUED UPSTREAM                
CELL PROPAGATION. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES             
AND FREEZING LEVELS OF 15KFT...ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF            
THREE INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG AND                 
NORTH OF I-70. AT THIS TIME...SMALL ZONE OF MAXIMUM ASCENT...COUPLED            
WITH ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS (AND ABNORMALLY HIGH FLASH FLOOD             
GUIDANCE VALUES) OFFSET THE DESIRE FOR A FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...HAVE            
HIGHLIGHTED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO...FORECAST AND             
AN ESF.                                                                         
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS A BIT LOWER. GIVEN RAPID BOUNDARY               
LAYER COOLING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...DEEP CONVECTION            
WILL NEED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THIS BOUNDARY TO MAXIMIZE                     
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP AS                  
POINTS FURTHER WEST DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. STILL...IMPRESSIVE MID              
LEVEL FLOW NEAR 40 KNOTS...COUPLED WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG               
COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH 06Z.                
FRONTAL ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING. AS               
MID LEVEL IMPULSE DISSIPATES...PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY                   
WEAKEN...WITH CENTRAL MO COUNTIES NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MORE THAN             
1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF RAINFALL. HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED TEMP FORECAST TO KEEP            
SE COUNTIES THE COOLEST TOMORROW UNDER OVERCAST SKIES/SHOWERS...WITH            
CLEARING FURTHER NORTH ALLOWING TEMPS TO RESPOND INTO THE MID-UPPER             
80S. STILL A BIG WELCOMED RELIEF THAT UNFORTUNATELY WILL LAST ONLY              
THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                               
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...                                               
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE PROGGED TO BE                   
AFFECTED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE             
BUILDING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE LARGE H5 RIDGE               
WHICH PLAGUED THE AREA THIS PAST WEEK...TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND                
RETROGRADE BACK WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AS A RESULT OF THE MORE              
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES            
WILL BE ABLE TO INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED THETA-E RIDGE AND                    
ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...PRODUCING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION.  WHILE THE            
BULK OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE                
CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN TIER             
OF COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.                                         
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING THE AMPLIFICATION OF               
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING ON MONDAY...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME                
DROPPING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF                     
MISSOURI.  THE PEAKING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NOT ONLY PUSH THE            
THETA-E AXIS FARTHER TO THE EAST...BUT STEADILY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL              
TEMPERATURES AS WELL.  SO IT FIGURES THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER            
THE CWA WILL BE A CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN.  MORE PRECISELY...THE                   
LOCATION OF ANY SHORTWAVES WHICH OVERTOP THE RIDGE ON THE DOWNWIND              
SIDE...WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDANT ON WHERE THE H5 RIDGE AXIS FALLS IN            
RELATIONSHIP TO THE CWA.  CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE FOCUSED THE AXIS              
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE EASTERLY             
PLACEMENT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH COULD OCCUR.  UNTIL BETTER              
RESOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES APPEAR...HAVE LIMITED SLIGHT                
POPS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  TEMPERATURE                 
WISE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE               
ESTABLISHING ITSELF AGAIN AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  HOWEVER...CLOUD            
COVER FROM CONVECTION FATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST COULD PUT A                  
DAMPER ON A RETURN TO EXCESSIVE HEAT CONDITIONS.                                
DUX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
740 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
JUST SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EARLY MORNING WORDING IN THE             
FORECAST. FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE DROPPED SOUTH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD JUST BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM                    
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SEE            
HOW THE SFC OBSERVATIONS RECOVER WITH THE CURRENT LIGHT SURFACE                 
WINDS.                                                                          
AT ANY RATE...EVEN IF THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL NORTH OF CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS...THE ACTIVE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN                  
ILLINOIS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                    
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT             
OF PRECIP/CONVECTION THROUGH DAY ONE.  FORECAST BECOMES QUIETER...              
AND MILDER BEYOND THAT.                                                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS                     
FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS NICELY THIS MORNING.  THIS HAS BLOWN UP               
OUT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                    
MIDWEST.  MORE CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-74 CORRIDOR.                                            
MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY MUCH DROPPED THE BALL            
RIGHT FROM THE INITIALIZATION PERIOD WITH THIS MCS... BOTH NAM AND              
GFS ALIKE.  RUC ANALYZED THE SITUATION WELL ENOUGH... BUT                       
MYSTERIOUSLY DROPPED OUR MCS SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD.                             
BASED ON TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS... CURRENT MCS SHOULD CONTINUE                 
EASTWARD INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...               
MAINLY BEFORE 12Z... AND BEGIN TO DECAY ONCE IT GETS EAST OF WHERE              
THE LLJ IS MORE PRONOUNCED.  SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS APPEARS TO BE             
DECAYING THE MOST... AS IT IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER LOW                 
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY.  BASICALLY... IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BEST                 
NORTH OF WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.              
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE                  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  MAIN                   
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE I-74 AND I-72             
CORRIDORS WHERE PRECIP MAY TEND TO TRAIN DUE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF              
THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.  FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH... BUT                
WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...              
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TRAINING TO CAUSE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.  STILL              
THINK THE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONS            
PLUS LACK OF RECENT RAINS... THAT NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS               
POINT.                                                                          
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THIS MORNING BY               
NOCTURNAL INVERSION KEEPING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT... EXCEPT IN                   
ISOLATED AREAS... AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR              
LARGE HAIL.  BEST BET FOR SVR WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... WHERE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL              
PROMOTE RAPID SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS APPROACHING              
THE LOWER 90S.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...                    
ALLOWING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG EITHER THE COLD FRONT            
ITSELF... OR ANY NUMBER OF LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDING IT.            
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON... WARRANTING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH              
TOMORROW.                                                                       
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
GUIDANCE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL                 
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SUGGESTS EVENTUAL RETROGRESSION OF            
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE IT BELONGS... AND THE            
SETTING UP OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST BY EARLY                
NEXT WEEK.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT              
LAKES IN THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME... AND THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE            
TO BE RATHER WOUND UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STILL... THIS SUPPORTS                 
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF             
A WET PERIOD SETTING UP TOWARDS THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SETUP ACROSS THE AREA... AND NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AUTEN/HARDIMAN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1049 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS....                                                                   
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT               
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING CLOUDINESS AND              
SHOWERS TO MAINLY DOWNEAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARD                  
THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING CLEARING EVEN TO DOWNEAST            
MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE           
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY EVENING. THEN             
EXPECT FAIR...COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE            
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE/REST OF TODAY/...                                                       
UPDATED GRIDS & ZFP TO ADD MENTION OF SCTD SHOWERS & ISOLD TSTMS                
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RUC & WRF. SHEARED VORTICITY MOVING              
ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT FAR NRN & NWRN AREAS DRY W/STABLE AIRMASS               
IN PLACE. BEST LIFT FOR ANY ACTION LOOKS TO BE GEARED FROM HUL-MLT              
DOWN INTO CNTL HIGHLANDS. SHIFTED CLOUD SHIELD FURTHER S BASED ON               
LATEST SATL IMAGERY. NO OTHER CHGS WERE MADE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
KEPT PATCHY FOG IN THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS DOWN BLO 2                
NM. I DID SHOW IMPROVING TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON W/VSBYS GOING TO 3 NM.           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
BOTH THE GFS AND WRF HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE WITH REMNANTS OF                 
THE MCS MOVING OVR CNTRL AND SRN PTNS OF THE FA THIS MORN. STARTED              
POPS CATEGORICAL IN GRIDS...BUT FORMATTERS WENT WITH LIKELY POP                 
WORDING WITH SHWRS THIS MORN...WHICH IS NOT A BAD FIT BASED ON THE              
SPEED OF MOVEMENT INDICATED BY THE RADAR. RNFL ERLY THIS MORN HAS               
BEEN FAIRLY HVY ACROSS XTRM WRN PTNS OF DOWNEAST MAINE...BUT RNFL               
RATES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER E ACROSS                      
DOWNEAST MAINE OVR THE REST OF THE MORN AS THE MCS CONTS TO                     
WEAKEN...BASED ON IR SAT CLD TOP WARMING TRENDS.                                
AFTERWARDS...SCT SHWRS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT ACROSS                   
DOWNEAST ME GIVEN THE RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STATIONARY              
FRONT AS SKIES BECOME PTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA.           
GIVEN LIMITED POTENTIAL OF SUNSHINE AND SFC BASED CAPE...ONLY WENT              
ISOLD TSTMS WITH THIS MORN'S DEPARTING MCS AND WITH ANY AFT SHWR                
ACTIVITY. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS AND SUNSHINE ACROSS              
THIS AREA IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT MORE SUNSHINE THEN ANTICIPATED                  
RESULTS IN MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                            
OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING ONE MORE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES E ACROSS THE               
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF OF MAINE LATE TNGT WHICH WILL BRING                
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS TO MSLY DOWNEAST MAINE ERLY FRI MORN...THE               
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SWRD...ALLOWING PARTIAL CLRG AND DRIER                
CONDITIONS TO MOVE SWRD INTO DOWNEAST ME BY FRI AFT.                            
MOST FCST GRIDS A BLEND OF GFS AND WRF...WITH THE GFS WEIGHTED A                
LITTLE MORE AFT THE FIRST 18 HRS OR SO. HI/LOW TEMPS TDY THRU FRI               
MODIFIED USING BLENDED MOS AND GFS ENS TEMPS.                                   
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                  
A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY                  
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT               
SATURDAY THEN CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE                       
GENERATED GRIDS USING A COMBINATION OF THE GFS AND NAM. A 50/50                 
MODEL BLEND FOR QPF AND SKY WAS USED. FOR TEMPERATURE...DEW                     
POINT...WIND AND POPS A MAV/MET COMBINATIONS WAS USED.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY VFR...XCPT PERHAPS MVFR AT TIMES THIS MORN WITH SHWRS AND                
WITH PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT AT KBGR AND KHUL.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM: LGT WINDS AND LOW WVS WITH NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED                 
THRU FRI.                                                                       
LONG TERM: WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD HAVE                   
CREATED WIND GRIDS WITH THE NAM12. THE WAVE GRIDS HAVE BEEN                     
INITIALIZED WITH THE WNA WAVE WATCH III. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS                      
INDICATES 1 TO 2 FEET BACK GROUND SWELL THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO                
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WILL KEEP COMBINED SEAS AT 2 FEET OR                  
LESS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HEWITT                                                                 
SHORT TERM/MARINE...MIGNONE                                                     
LONG TERM/MARINE...VJN                                                          
AVIATION...WEITLICH                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1200 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AS SUGGESTED IN THE LAST UPDATE...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL                  
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                
SPS HAS JUST ISSED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALLEGANY...                  
CATTARAUGUS AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.                
ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA TO                 
RAISE SBCAPES TO >1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR IS FOUND ABOVE               
3K FT TO ACCOUNT FOR 0-2 KM HELICITY VALUES >100 M2/S2. AGAIN...                
ORGANIZED MESOS ARE NOT AS LIKELY AS BOWING SEGMENTS SO THE MAIN                
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.                          
HIGH PWATS WOULD ALSO MEAN THE OPPORTUNITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS...              
WITH THE THREAT OF FLOODING IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. AT THIS                  
POINT THEY HAVE NOT AND DO NOT LOOK LIKELY FOR OUR SRN TIER.                    
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 931 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME                   
-SHRA/TSRA. PWATS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1.75-2.0...SO ANY CONVECTION              
COULD INCLUDE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                             
WHILE THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR              
MANY OF THE REPORTING SITES AS OF 14Z (BUF, ROC, IAG)...THE ACTUAL              
COOL FRONT IS STILL TO OUR NORTH. THE VEERING WINDS MAY BE A                    
RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SOME OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURE. SFC              
WINDS WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON               
AS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARDS. THERE ARE STILL                     
SEVERAL WAVES ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST TO BELIEVE THAT              
A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL TAKE PLACE ANYTIME REAL SOON.                      
IN ANY CASE...LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REGION THIS              
AFTERNOON. THOSE POPS WILL DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE              
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT                 
WILL CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST.                                                    
IN TERMS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES                 
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING ANYTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT. THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY MORE UNSTABLE WELL SOUTH OF                 
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AND DIURNAL AFFECTS COULD ADD TO THIS                     
INSTABILITY (THINNER CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH) AS THE MIDDAY                    
PROGRESSES. THE SPC SLGHT RIOSK OUTLINE FOR TODAY INCLUDES OUR                  
SOUTHERN TIER AND A PORTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.                         
THE WIND FIELD SCF-10K SHOWS LITTLE SHEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH NEAR              
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR MUCH OF THE                
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE 35-40 KT WINDS                
ABOVE 5K. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL THUS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT IN               
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TYPE...AS THE FRZG LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 16K              
FEET WITH ONLY MARGINAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED MESO'S.                  
WOULD NEED TO UTILILIZE ALL OF 2000 J/KG PROJECTED EARLY                        
AFTERNOON CAPES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF                
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT HAIL.                                                     
RSH                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 642 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION THAT IS FIRING UP OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN              
INDIANA SEEMS TO BE ROBBING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN                 
END OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE                  
EARLIER WRF THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR               
CWA. BASED ON THIS TREND...HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY THE THUNDERSTORMS           
A BIT IN THE ZFP...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE WORDING FOR THE                        
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS                 
STILL PLACE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO                
CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND                       
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN NEW                
YORK STATE...WHILE A SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOT AS                 
STRONG AS THAT WHICH AFFECTED PARTS OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE                   
NIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS STILL VERY HUMID               
AND RATHER UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND LEAVE               
IN LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.                                                       
THE LATEST WRF NOW TRACKS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA A                 
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE                       
CONSIDERING HOW FRONT IS GETTING HUNG UP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE                
OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF                
THE YEAR.                                                                       
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIE JUST SOUTH               
OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY (SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY                  
SOUTH OF OUR CWA)...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN AS MOISTURE FROM                
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING                  
FRONT. THE WRF ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2               
INCHES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.                                                
EXPECT AREA TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE                 
OPPRESSIVE READINGS OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL              
NOT BE A LOT OF RELIEF FROM THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS                     
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AND               
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE.                             
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND                
MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.                                                      
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES                 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER              
LAKES INCLUDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE              
MOVING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST.                       
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO                  
CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BUILDING                
RIDGE WILL CREATE A TROUGH WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER THE                   
NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL              
CREATE A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING            
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS US MONDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIR AND COOLER               
WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN A                    
COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S RANGE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR AWHILE AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS               
SOUTH FROM CANADA. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN IN            
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
931 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME                   
-SHRA/TSRA. PWATS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1.75-2.0...SO ANY CONVECTION              
COULD INCLUDE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN.                                             
WHILE THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR              
MANY OF THE REPORTING SITES AS OF 14Z (BUF, ROC, IAG)...THE ACTUAL              
COOL FRONT IS STILL TO OUR NORTH. THE VEERING WINDS MAY BE A                    
RESULT OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR SOME OTHER MESOSCALE FEATURE. SFC              
WINDS WILL LIKELY GO BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON               
AS THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARDS. THERE ARE STILL                     
SEVERAL WAVES ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR WEST TO BELIEVE THAT              
A STRONG SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL TAKE PLACE ANYTIME REAL SOON.                      
IN ANY CASE...LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REGION THIS              
AFTERNOON. THOSE POPS WILL DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE              
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN THE LAST WAVE ALONG THE FRONT                 
WILL CLEAR TO THE NORTHEAST.                                                    
IN TERMS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES                 
WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING ANYTHING                      
SIGNIFICANT. THE AIRMASS IS ALREADY MORE UNSTABLE WELL SOUTH OF                 
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AND DIURNAL AFFECTS COULD ADD TO THIS                     
INSTABILITY (THINNER CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH) AS THE MIDDAY                    
PROGRESSES. THE SPC SLGHT RIOSK OUTLINE FOR TODAY INCLUDES OUR                  
SOUTHERN TIER AND A PORTION OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION.                         
THE WIND FIELD SCF-10K SHOWS LITTLE SHEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH NEAR              
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR MUCH OF THE                
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE 35-40 KT WINDS                
ABOVE 5K. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL THUS REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT IN               
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER TYPE...AS THE FRZG LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 16K              
FEET WITH ONLY MARGINAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ANY ORGANIZED MESO'S.                  
WOULD NEED TO UTILILIZE ALL OF 2000 J/KG PROJECTED EARLY                        
AFTERNOON CAPES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER TO HAVE ANY REAL CHANCE OF                
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT HAIL.                                                     
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 642 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION THAT IS FIRING UP OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN              
INDIANA SEEMS TO BE ROBBING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN                 
END OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE                  
EARLIER WRF THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR               
CWA. BASED ON THIS TREND...HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY THE THUNDERSTORMS           
A BIT IN THE ZFP...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE WORDING FOR THE                        
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS                 
STILL PLACE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO                
CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND                       
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN NEW                
YORK STATE...WHILE A SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOT AS                 
STRONG AS THAT WHICH AFFECTED PARTS OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE                   
NIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS STILL VERY HUMID               
AND RATHER UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND LEAVE               
IN LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.                                                       
THE LATEST WRF NOW TRACKS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA A                 
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE                       
CONSIDERING HOW FRONT IS GETTING HUNG UP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE                
OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF                
THE YEAR.                                                                       
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIE JUST SOUTH               
OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY (SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY                  
SOUTH OF OUR CWA)...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN AS MOISTURE FROM                
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING                  
FRONT. THE WRF ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2               
INCHES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.                                                
EXPECT AREA TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE                 
OPPRESSIVE READINGS OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL              
NOT BE A LOT OF RELIEF FROM THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS                     
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AND               
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE.                             
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND                
MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.                                                      
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES                 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER              
LAKES INCLUDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE              
MOVING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST.                       
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO                  
CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BUILDING                
RIDGE WILL CREATE A TROUGH WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER THE                   
NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL              
CREATE A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING            
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS US MONDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIR AND COOLER               
WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN A                    
COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S RANGE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR AWHILE AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS               
SOUTH FROM CANADA. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN IN            
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
PREVIOUS UPDATE...TJP                                                           
SHORT TERM...TJP                                                                
LONG TERM...SAGE                                                                
AVIATION...APB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
642 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION THAT IS FIRING UP OVER ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN              
INDIANA SEEMS TO BE ROBBING SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE EASTERN                 
END OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE                  
EARLIER WRF THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR               
CWA. BASED ON THIS TREND...HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNPLAY THE THUNDERSTORMS           
A BIT IN THE ZFP...BUT WILL LEAVE IN THE WORDING FOR THE                        
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS THAT IS                 
STILL PLACE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 344 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
THE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO                
CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE UPPER              
LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN. ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND                       
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN NEW                
YORK STATE...WHILE A SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FIRING UP OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MICHIGAN. THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOT AS                 
STRONG AS THAT WHICH AFFECTED PARTS OF THE CWA EARLIER IN THE                   
NIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS STILL VERY HUMID               
AND RATHER UNSTABLE. THEREFORE...WILL FOLLOW CONTINUITY AND LEAVE               
IN LIKELY POPS FOR TODAY.                                                       
THE LATEST WRF NOW TRACKS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA A                 
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE                       
CONSIDERING HOW FRONT IS GETTING HUNG UP ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE                
OF THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF                
THE YEAR.                                                                       
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIE JUST SOUTH               
OF NEW YORK STATE TODAY (SPC KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY                  
SOUTH OF OUR CWA)...BUT HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN AS MOISTURE FROM                
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING                  
FRONT. THE WRF ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2               
INCHES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON.                                                
EXPECT AREA TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE                 
OPPRESSIVE READINGS OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THERE WILL              
NOT BE A LOT OF RELIEF FROM THE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS                     
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AND               
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE.                             
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GREAT                   
LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND                
MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.                                                      
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES                 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER              
LAKES INCLUDING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE              
MOVING EAST BY LATE SUNDAY BUT FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST.                       
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO                  
CHANGE THE PATTERN OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BUILDING                
RIDGE WILL CREATE A TROUGH WITH INCREASING AMPLITUDE OVER THE                   
NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL              
CREATE A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING            
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS US MONDAY MORNING.                
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FAIR AND COOLER               
WEATHER ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN A                    
COMFORTABLE UPPER 70S RANGE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR FOR AWHILE AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS               
SOUTH FROM CANADA. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN IN            
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...TJP                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1158 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO EXCEED 110 DEGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. GOING                   
FORECAST ON TEMPS AND DEW PTS ON TRACK.                                         
WAL 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING LESS DRY AIR AT MID LVLS THAN YSTRDY                   
AIDING TO MORE INSTABILITY. LATEST RUC SHOWING PRECIP TO DVLP                   
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY 18Z. NAM AND GFS IS NOT.                    
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON THE 12Z NAM AT H92-H85 SHOWING WIND                     
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY TO DVLP N OF I-64 THIS AFTN. SCT CU WILL                   
DVLP THIS AFTN OVER THE CWA AND THE BIG QUESTION IS THERE ENOUGH                
OF A TRIGGER TO ENHANCE CU ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOL SHRA/TSRA. CONV            
TEMP AT WAL IS 95 DEGREES TODAY AND CURRENT OBS CLOSE TO THAT...SO              
CU SHOULD START TO DVLP SHORTLY.                                                
FURTHER SOUTH ON VSBY SAT...CU IS ALREADY DVLPG JUST SW OF THE                  
CWA AND ANOTHER WIND CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DVLPG SOUTH OF A FVX TO               
ORF LINE. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL ADD A 20 POP FOR AN ISOL                 
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE CWA TO DVLP DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS. THE               
THREAT OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DVLP (MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY)              
WILL END BY LATE EVE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR               
OUT WITH HAZE ONCE AGAIN DVLPG TWRDS MORNING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 237 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP FOR TODAY. YET ANOTHER EXCESSIVE HEAT                    
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...AS WE'RE ON THE FINAL STRETCH HERE                
FOR THIS STAGNANT LEE SIDE TROUGH PATTERN. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO                 
FORECAST. REFRESHED TEMPS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. AND AS USUAL TEMPS              
AND DW PTS ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH...ESP THE MAV. AGAIN              
TODAY TOOK A GOOD BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE AND DID NOT HAVE TO MAKE                
ANY ADJUSTMENTS...EXCEPT DECREASED KSBY DUE TO PERSISTENCE                      
FORECASTING.                                                                    
TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES UPON LOADING IN A                 
BLEND OF ALL GUIDANCE AS DONE FOR TODAY. DO NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH             
THIS SINCE SKY COVER SHOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY DENSELY OVERCAST AND A            
LOT OF DAYTIME HEATING COULD OCCUR BEFORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSES IN            
ON OUR AREA. ALREADY HAVE GONE WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRI SINCE                 
TEMPS WILL NOT BE IN THE 3 DIGIT RANGE. CONDITIONS STILL VERY HOT               
HOWEVER AND PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO KEEP COOL THROUGH FRIDAY.            
(SEE WBCNPWAKQ FOR MORE INFO ON HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT                
WARNINGS.)                                                                      
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT CHC FOR STRONG                     
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. APPEARS AS BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NC/VA            
BOUNDARY...WHICH I AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IS NOT UNCOMMON               
DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOT OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES MOVE                 
THOUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR                 
MAINLY DIURNAL CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE DOENS'T             
MAKE IT INTO OUT REGION UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.                               
AVIATION...                                                                     
PREDAWN IFR/TEMPO LIFR LIKELY IN FOG ESPECIALLY AT ECG/SBY.                     
OTHERWISE...PERSISTENCE A GOOD FCST IN THIS STAGNANT AIRMASS. HAZE              
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE VSBY RESTRICTIONS TODAY...MAINLY INTO THE                
MVFR RANGE.                                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
NOCTURNAL JETTING HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS EARLY THIS                 
MORN. SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 15KT AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SHOW                   
DECREASING TREND AS BNDRY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE TOWARD SUNRISE.             
A CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SW FLOW CONTS              
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE SFC BNDRY SAGS INTO MARINE AREA ON                
FRIDAY. WINDS TURNING N THEN NE AND E AS FRONT DROPS THRU AND                   
BECOMES STATIONARY SOMEWHERE OFF NRN OUTER BANKS ON SATURDAY.                   
CLIMATE...                                                                      
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME RECORDS TO BE SET TODAY. CURRENT RECORD                    
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY...                                                           
        THU 8/3                                                                 
RIC       99 (1987)                                                             
ORF      101 (1980)                                                             
SBY       96 (1995)                                                             
ECG       99 (1980)                                                             
WAL       93 (1987)                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR MDZ021>025 UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.                 
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM FRIDAY.             
NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 UNTIL 8 PM               
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102 FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO              
     8 PM FRIDAY.                                                               
VA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR VAZ048-049-060>100 UNTIL 8 PM                   
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
  ...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ048-049-060>100 FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WAMSLEY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1130 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER CONVECTION CHANCES A BIT ACROSS THE               
NORTH AND JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS/WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. MOSTLY            
CLOUDY AND STILL HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE IL RIVER NW AND LIKELY CHANCES FROM I-72                 
SOUTH. HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE              
LOWER 90S IN SE IL NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE.                                          
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MOVED NE OUT OF EASTERN IL INTO             
INDIANA LATE THIS MORNING. 11 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1009 MB LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER SW LOWER MI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ACROSS NW              
IL NEAR THE IL RIVER AND INTO CENTRAL MO. 1019 MB WEAK HIGH PRESSURE            
WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ALOFT A 594 DM 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE              
WAS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE             
FOR OUR 5 DAY HEAT WAVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS OVER THE MIDWEST             
WITH AN MCS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.                                               
RUC AND NAM/WRF MOVE COLD FRONT SE FROM THE IL RIVER INTO SE IL THIS            
AFTERNOON...REACHING LAWRENCEVILLE BY SUNSET. THIS FRONT HAS BEEN               
MOVING SLOWER THAN MODELS ADVERTISED EARLIER. MODELS NOT SHOWING AS             
MUCH QPF OVER CENTRAL/SE IL THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWER EARLIER RUNS.              
HELD ONTO LIKELY CHANCES FROM I-72 SOUTH WHILE JUST 20 PERCENT                  
CHANCE FROM THE IL RIVER NW. SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE OVER SE              
IL SE OF A DANVILLE TO EFFINGHAM LINE FOR 15% CHANCE OF DAMAGING                
WINDS AND 5% CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL AND ONLY 2% CHANCE OF A TORNADO.              
SE IL WAS WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SEE SUN             
BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW HEATING/DESTABLIZATION AHEAD OF              
COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 20C SLIP TO 16-17C FROM PEORIA NORTH            
AND STAY AROUND 20C OVER SE IL THIS AFTERNOON. SO HIGHS RANGING FROM            
LOWER 80S NORTH OF PEORIA AND LOWER 90S OVER SE IL BY LAWRENCEVILLE             
WHERE HEAT INDEX APPROACHED 100F. STILL HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE             
LOWER 70S...THOUGH SLIPPING BETWEEN 65 AND 70F NW OF PEORIA BEHIND              
THE COLD FRONT.                                                                 
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT             
OF PRECIP/CONVECTION THROUGH DAY ONE.  FORECAST BECOMES QUIETER...              
AND MILDER BEYOND THAT.                                                         
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVER EASTERN IA/WESTERN ILLINOIS IS                     
FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS NICELY THIS MORNING.  THIS HAS BLOWN UP               
OUT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS THE                    
MIDWEST.  MORE CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP JUST AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE I-74 CORRIDOR.                                            
MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRETTY MUCH DROPPED THE BALL            
RIGHT FROM THE INITIALIZATION PERIOD WITH THIS MCS... BOTH NAM AND              
GFS ALIKE.  RUC ANALYZED THE SITUATION WELL ENOUGH... BUT                       
MYSTERIOUSLY DROPPED OUR MCS SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD.                             
BASED ON TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS... CURRENT MCS SHOULD CONTINUE                 
EASTWARD INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...               
MAINLY BEFORE 12Z... AND BEGIN TO DECAY ONCE IT GETS EAST OF WHERE              
THE LLJ IS MORE PRONOUNCED.  SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MCS APPEARS TO BE             
DECAYING THE MOST... AS IT IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER LOW                 
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY.  BASICALLY... IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER BEST                 
NORTH OF WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT.              
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE                  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  MAIN                   
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BETWEEN THE I-74 AND I-72             
CORRIDORS WHERE PRECIP MAY TEND TO TRAIN DUE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF              
THE UPPER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.  FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH... BUT                
WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...              
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TRAINING TO CAUSE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.  STILL              
THINK THE THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED ENOUGH... GIVEN THE ABOVE REASONS            
PLUS LACK OF RECENT RAINS... THAT NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS               
POINT.                                                                          
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THIS MORNING BY               
NOCTURNAL INVERSION KEEPING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT... EXCEPT IN                   
ISOLATED AREAS... AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS REDUCING THE THREAT FOR              
LARGE HAIL.  BEST BET FOR SVR WILL BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... WHERE LACK OF CLOUD COVER WILL              
PROMOTE RAPID SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON... WITH TEMPS APPROACHING              
THE LOWER 90S.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...                    
ALLOWING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG EITHER THE COLD FRONT            
ITSELF... OR ANY NUMBER OF LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDING IT.            
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON... WARRANTING CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH              
TOMORROW.                                                                       
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
GUIDANCE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL                 
PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SUGGESTS EVENTUAL RETROGRESSION OF            
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BACK OVER THE PLAINS... WHERE IT BELONGS... AND THE            
SETTING UP OF A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THE MIDWEST BY EARLY                
NEXT WEEK.  NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT              
LAKES IN THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME... AND THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE            
TO BE RATHER WOUND UP WITH THIS SYSTEM.  STILL... THIS SUPPORTS                 
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF             
A WET PERIOD SETTING UP TOWARDS THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF NEXT                
WEEK WITH A STATIONARY FRONT SETUP ACROSS THE AREA... AND NORTHWEST             
FLOW ALOFT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
110 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE COMING SHORTLY WITH SVR TSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683 JUST GRAZING             
OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST 2 COUNTIES. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER                 
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO OHIO               
AND INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THAT SAID...OUR CWA IS                  
DOMINATED BY CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBITED HEATING.             
GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO             
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA PREVIOUS RAIN             
AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION. AS               
SUSPECTED YESTERDAY...COLD FRONT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN OPERATIONAL                
GUIDANCE...NOW JUST ENTERING THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA.                          
HOWEVER...UNLESS SUNSHINE IS ABLE TO BREAK OUT IN THE PRE-FRONTAL               
AIRMASS THE CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS ALONG THE FRONT IS NIL.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SEE UPDATE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR THOUGHTS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.               
SHRA EXITING KFWA AT 17Z WITH JUST A FEW SCT SHRA NW OF THE KSBN                
TERMINAL WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LIFT JUST ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE                  
SURFACE FRONT. DECENT AMOUNT OF MVFR STRATUS JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE            
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSBN TERMINAL PERIODICALLY THROUGH                
THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR MAY ALSO AFFECT KFWA THIS EVENING FOR            
SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWING FROPA. LATER TONIGHT DRIER AIR AND                      
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEARING              
SKIES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO                 
PRECLUDE ANY BR FORMATION OVERNIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE THIS MORNING.                        
AT 07Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN                      
ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO SRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO ILLINOIS...NRN                
MISSOURI AND NRN KANSAS.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH                    
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                
OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM-WRF AND GFS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON            
THE CURRENT FCST SITUATION.  THUS...HAVE RELIED ON THE LATEST RUC40             
MODEL AND CURRENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.                    
THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY INTO OUR                 
REGION HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  ONE OF                      
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONVECTION OCCURRING                
ACRS W CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING FAIRLY             
FAST...ABOUT 40 TO 50 MPH...TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS FEATURE...IN                
COMBINATION WITH LOW LVL WAA/LOW LVL JET...WILL RESULT IN AN                    
INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACRS THE REGION LATER THIS                 
MORNING.  ALSO...THIS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR                 
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY.  TO ADD INSULT              
TO INJURY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED S/WV ACRS NE            
KS/NW MISSOURI.  THIS SYSTEM...AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST RUC40 MODEL              
IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO NW INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z...PROVIDING              
UPR LVL LIFT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT OF ALL THESE             
FACTORS...HAVE EMPLOYED LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.               
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE                
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.  THUS...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN              
THE ZONES.  HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ATTM IN                     
COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES (IND/ILN) AS CURRENT 1 HOUR FFG                
VALUES ARE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL             
BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME URBAN AND                
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED.  AS FOR HIGH TEMPS                 
TODAY...IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN WARM START...AND HIGH                     
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TWEAKED PREVIOUS                    
FORECAST VALUES SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST TO              
THE UPPER 80S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.                                                  
FOR TONIGHT...ONCE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV RIPPLES BY TO THE EAST...THE             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE A MORE PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA.             
WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS            
MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON TIMING OF MENTIONED SYSTEMS.                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.                          
LONG TERM....                                                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE PERIOD DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE              
OF STORMS MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE                      
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH COOL AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO               
THE AREA. THE NEW 03/00Z MEX FOLLOWED THE 02/00Z KEEPING HIGHS ABOVE            
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. THIS WARM PATTERN APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 850 MB             
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 16C. TIMING OF COOL FRONT MONDAY ALONG WITH A                 
CHANCE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL                   
PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN                   
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS             
RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND              
WEDNESDAY. THIS COOLER PATTERN IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE NEW MEX MOS             
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE             
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN GIVEN THE HIGH CORRELATION WITH THE ANALOGS OF              
GFS RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLE ANALOGS AND THE CANADIAN ANALOGS THAT MATCH             
THIS PATTERN.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE/AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                     
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                            
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
236 PM MDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES AND                 
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE TWO             
CONVECTIVE FEATURES TO MONITOR. THE FIRST IS LOW TOPPED CONVECTION              
ACROSS WASHINGTON/YUMA COUNTIES COLORADO THAT FORMED IN AN                      
INSTABILITY AXIS. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST.               
MODELS...INCLUDING THE RUC...ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ADVECTING THIS               
ACTIVITY ACROSS KANSAS. OTHER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS               
ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST. THE OTHER AREA TO MONITOR IS                    
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO/TEXAS PANHANDLE. GFS AND WRF SPREAD                 
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...AND              
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS              
SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR EL PASO. APPEARS THAT SOME DYNAMICS WITH               
THAT FEATURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS                 
LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...LIKE THE IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS OF               
SOME CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS NEXT WAVE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE              
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTIVE                       
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE                
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOWLY                
REBUILD OVER THE AREA. CAPES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND                
1000 J/KG. EXPECT WEAK WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL                  
MENTION SOME LATE AFTERNOON/CONVECTION...BUT POPS WILL BE LOW.                  
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY                       
AFTERNOON/EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. WILL               
LIKELY HAVE SOME BOUNDARIES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...BUT                       
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.                         
850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY                
BEFORE COOL FRONT KNOCKS TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY.                
HAVE ACCEPTED THIS SCENARIO BASED ON GFS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MENTZER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
308 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS....                                                                   
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STATIONARY                    
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A                      
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE                 
FRIDAY EVENING. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL                   
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM              
SOUTHERN CANADA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
MAIN FOCUS THIS PACKAGE WILL BE HOW MUCH RAFL ACROSS DOWNEAST &                 
COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT W/SFC WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS              
TONIGHT & CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY.                                                
USED THE RUC TO START THINGS OUT TONIGHT AS IT APPEARS TO BE                    
HANDLING THINGS THE BEST PER THE RADAR & SATL IMAGERY & THEN TOOK               
A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APCH LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WEIGHTING THE               
GFS A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN THE WRF FOR POP & QPF GRIDS. SKY GRIDS               
ARE A REFLECTION OF THE WRF TONIGHT & FRIDAY NIGHT & MORE TOWARD                
THE GFS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.                                               
SFC WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY FRIDAY                    
MORNING W/HIGHEST POPS & QPF SITUATED ACROSS THE WATERS. WENT                   
W/CHC POPS ACROSS DOWNEAST & COASTAL AREAS TO PLAY FOR THIS                     
FEATURE AFT COORDINATION W/GYX. GFS LOOKS TOO HIGH ON QPF W/THIS WEAK           
WAVE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS REFLECTION OF THE MAV.                            
FRONTAL ACROSS CANADA IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO DROP ACROSS NRN               
& ERN MAINE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. LEANED W/40-50% POPS FROM                 
NERN ME BACK INTO THE CNTL HIGHLANDS & STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT                
FURTHER S. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS FAIRLY DECENT W/CAPES RUNNING                 
700 TO APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES APCH              
6.0 TO 6.5 C/KM. LLVL WARMING COUPLED W/SOME MID LVL COOLING WILL ALLOW         
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. THINKING MORE IN THE LINE OF                 
PULSE CONVECTION ACROSS NRN & ERN AREAS. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA               
BY FRIDAY NIGHT W/COOLER AIR POISED TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.              
TOOK A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET FOR FRIDAY/S DAYTIME TEMPS W/SOME                   
ADJUSTMENTS ON THE UPWARD DUE TO INSOLATION EARLY ON.                           
DRY & COOLER DAY ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE                  
CWA. NNW WINDS WILL PICK BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL ADDING A CHILL                
TO THE AIR. TOOK THE PREV MAX TEMP GRIDS FOR SATURDAY & ADJUSTED                
SLIGHTLY UPWARD MAINLY ACROSS CNTL & DOWENAST AREAS.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING           
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION                   
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A               
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WILL                  
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH                
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH                    
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS              
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY                
OF SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM:NO HEADLINES THIS RUN AS WAVES RUNNING NO MORE THAN 2                
FT. PATCHY FOG TO PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. FOLLOWED PREV                 
GRIDS PRETTY CLOSE W/AN ADJSUTMENT FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT                    
SLIDES ACROSS THE WATERS. THIS ADJUSTMENT WAS MAINLY FOR THE WINDS              
TO BRING THEM UP SLIGHTLY AS NNW GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME EARLY ON &              
THEN RELAXES.                                                                   
LONG TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT                  
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                      
LONG TERM/MARINE...NORCROSS                                                     
AVIATION...WEITLICH                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT              
NIGHT INTO SUN.                                                                 
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE NRN              
CONUS WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHRTWVS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE                  
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHRTWV THAT WILL              
IMPACT THE WEATHER WAS LOCATED OVER NW BC...ASSOCIATED WITH A                   
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN BC/ALBERTA. A SHRTWV FROM N OF LK                  
SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI ALONG WITH A WEAK H8 TROF SUPPORTED ONLY                 
PATCHY MID CLOUDS INTO W UPR MI EARLY TODAY. AT THE SFC...RELATIVELY            
WEAK PRES GRADIENT BTWN FRONTS OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LOWER LAKES              
HAS ALLOWED LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP. VIS LOOP SHOWED ABUNDANT CU                
OVER CNTRL AND INTERIOR E UPR MI WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME ISOLD               
-SHRA OVER N CNTRL UPR MI. WITH MIXING PUSHING DEWPOINTS INTO THE               
LOWER 50S F...18Z LAPS SNDGS ONLY INDICATED 200-300 J/KG CAPE AT                
MOST. DEWPOINT EVEN LOWER OVER S(AROUND 50) WERE EVEN LESS FAVORABLE            
FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT                                                           
TONIGHT...THE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF UPR MI MAY BE              
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL -SHRA DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER....GIVEN                
VERY LIMITED COVERAGE AND WEAK INTENSITY...ONLY ISOLD SHRA OR                   
SPRINKLES WERE MENTIONED. DIURNAL -SHRA SHOULD THEN DIMINISH BY MID             
TO LATE EVENING.                                                                
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...PATTERN WILL PROGRESS AND AMPLIFY A BIT THE                
BC SHRTWV DIGS SE. THE RESULTING WAA PATTERN AND INCREASING 305K-310            
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES             
WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA INTO UPR MI BY FRI EVENING INTO              
EARLY SAT. THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE ASSOCIATED               
QPF PATTERN...SO CONTINUING 30 CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE               
WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES FARTHER N OVER THE KEWEENAW...PER MDL             
CONSENSUS. FAVORABLE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES TO NEAR 40-50 KT WOULD                  
SUPPORT ORGANIZATION OF STRONGER AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH             
FCST MUCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...WITH MAINLY                
ELEVATED STORMS EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE LESS AND WOULD FAVOR            
MAINLY HAIL AS SVR THREAT.                                                      
SAT...AFTER ANY MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MOVE OUT WAA WITH                 
STIFF SW FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPS INTO THE                
UPPER 80S(MDLS FCST H8 TEMPS NEAR 17C)...SLIGHTLY ABV                           
GUIDANCE...WITH EVEN WARMER READING FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY                    
DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                                                                 
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THE PREFERRED 12Z GFS WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN             
THE PREVIOUS RUN AND WAS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IN TIMING.                   
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF/UKMET DID NOT BRING THE MID LVL LOW AS FAR                  
SOUTH. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONG QG DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN N OF LK                   
SUPERIOR...EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A            
PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS ABUNDANT AS THE                
FRONT FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY TO AROUND 60F              
AND MUCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO 1K J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH                
WITH 0-6KM VALUES AGAIN NEAR 40-50KT TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLD STRONG TO            
SVR STORMS.                                                                     
MON-THU...THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE SIMILAR EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH               
HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE            
WAS MORE LIMITED BY THU WITH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY SHRTWV OR               
MID LVL LOWS WILL MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS INTO OR OVER THE RDG OVER               
THE CNTRL CONUS. HOWEVER...SINCE BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST             
THIS POSSIBILITY...LOW END PCPN CHANCES WERE ADDED.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
325 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS FINALLY BEEN DISPLACED TO               
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS A SURFACE FRONT HAS SUNK            
SOUTH TO NEAR A KSTL-KJLN LINE THIS AFTERNOON. A THICKER STRATO-CU              
LAYER REMAINS POOLED ALONG THE WEAK BAROCLINIC FRONTAL                          
BOUNDARY...WHILE A MORE SCATTERED DECK HAS EVOLVED IN THE DRIER AIR             
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE                 
ADVECTION OF EVEN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF            
MISSOURI AND KANSAS...EXPECT THE SCATTERED LAYER TO DISSIPATE                   
NEAR SUNSET. HOWEVER...HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE                 
FRONT AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM NRN OKLAHOMA WILL KEEP              
SOME ASSEMBLENCE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR AT LEAST            
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD.                                      
THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE ONE OF THE MOST PLEASANT EVENINGS AND                  
OVERNIGHTS SEEN IN OVER A WEEK WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO              
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AIR TEMPERATURE WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND                
FALL THROUGH THE 70S DURING THE EVENING HOURS. KEPT OVERNIGHT LOW               
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...HOWEVER WITH               
WEAK WINDS AND ONLY MARGINALLY SHALLOW MOISTURE /900MB DEWPOINTS                
+10C/...COULD SEE A FEW LOCALS EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY THE              
EARLY MORNING HOURS. VERY SHALLOW INVERSION WILL MIX QUICKLY DURING             
THE MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR                    
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. DEEPER                
EASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VALUES...AND            
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO UNSEASONABLY LOW LEVELS...MAKING               
FOR A DELIGHTFUL END OF THE WEEK.                                               
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH               
EARLY SATURDAY AS 5H HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER THE REGION.                  
MODELS INDICATE SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE 310K TO 315K LAYER             
SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE BEST FLOW AND STEEPEST GRADIENTS                 
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS            
ABOVE THE MOISTURE IN THE 310K TO 315K LAYER WILL BECOME                        
NON-SUPPORTIVE FOR MAINTAINING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED CONVECTION.                
REGARDLESS...WITH 5H HEIGHTS BUILDING TO NEAR 590DM AND 850MB                   
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO THE +22C TO +25C RANGE...AFTERNOON HIGHS            
WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S EAST...AND THE MID TO UPPER             
90S WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY.                                                    
USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY              
TIME FRAME. PREFERRED THE LESS AGRESSIVE GFS OVER THE NAM EXTENSION             
WITH RESPECT TO A NEWLY DEVELOPING FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH                 
TOWARDS NORTHERN MISSOURI. NAM APPEARS TO DIG ENERGY TOO FAR SOUTH              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO A FORECAST            
WEAKNESS IN THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE. FEEL THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL                
INSTEAD SLIDE EAST AND PHASE WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CANADIAN             
MARITIMES. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT BECOMES HUNG SOMEWHERE ACROSS                 
NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH              
OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE              
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                         
WEEK...HOWEVER LACK OF DETAILS REGARDING ANY SPECIFIC WAVE ROTATING             
AROUND AND THROUGH THE RIDGE TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION PRECLUDES               
ANY MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. KEPT                        
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS IN THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER               
UPWARD REVISIONS MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN IT CAN BE DETERMINED WHICH               
SPECIFIC DAYS WILL NOT SEE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.                       
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1202 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                             
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER             
SRN COUNTIES AS WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS HAS SHIFTED               
SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS REGION. THICK STRATO-CUMULUS CONTINUES TO HOLD            
OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED            
ALONG THE DISSIPATING BAROCLINIC ZONE. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AS              
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO ENHANCE MIXING/DRY ADVECTION.            
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 3-4F OVER CENTRAL MO. EXPECT              
THAT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL END UP FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS BY              
DAYS END AS A RESULT OF COLD ADVECTION OR CLOUD COVER.                          
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
SHORT WAVE WHICH CAME OUT OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND BROUGHT             
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL BE            
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL WAVE                
BEING KICKED OUT BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH PROFILERS SHOW                 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL                    
NEBRASKA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS SECONDARY WAVE MAY PRODUCE               
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                  
MORNING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT...PER THE NAM/WRF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH             
SOME DOUBT IN THESE MODELS SINCE THEY DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY                
GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL WAVE COMING THROUGH AT THIS TIME.  RUC               
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN...AND IT TOO PRODUCES              
SOME PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE 850 FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL            
MISSOURI...SO WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THAT AREA.                      
FURTHER SOUTH...ONGOING PRECIPITATION NEAR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE PAST 12Z...BUT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING FURTHER TO               
THE SOUTH...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT                  
SHOULD ALSO BE SLIDING SOUTH OF AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN               
FOR THIS MORNING...BUT CUT BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY               
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA STILL WITH MENTION OF              
PRECIPITATION AS 850 FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.                            
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP             
THINGS DRY. SOME CONCERN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP FRIDAY                
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE             
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE WILL SET UP...WITH THE            
NAM/WRF POINTING MORE TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN                    
MISSOURI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE WEST IN                
KANSAS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS                 
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                                         
FINALLY WILL HAVE A BREAK FROM THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TODAY               
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING TO BELOW 20 DEGREES. THIS              
SLIGHT COOL DOWN SHOULD LAST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS            
GRADUALLY SWING FROM THE NORTH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WARM UP ON             
SATURDAY HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP.             
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE              
BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS SOLUTION                                                
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
257 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS              
NE-SW SOUTH OF I-44. DENSE HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES               
DOWN A BIT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MO OZARKS. GOES SOUNDING AT KUNO                
STILL INDICATED A WEAK CAP AT NOON- 1PM...BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE            
SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REACHING THE             
LOW 90S...BUT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT LOOKS TO BE HARDER AND HARDER             
TO COME BY UNDER THE DENSE CIRRUS. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS                     
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF OF THE DENSE CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS              
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO. AFTERNOON 100MB MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM            
THE RUC LOOK REASONABLE...SO ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE POSSIBLE             
WHERE LOCALIZED SURFACE CONVERGENCE OCCURS. AREAS OF SOUTHERN HOWELL            
AND OREGON COUNTIES...SOUTH OF THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE            
THE BEST SHORT TERM CHANCE FOR STORMS WHERE MLCAPES ARE CLOSE TO                
2000 J/KG. HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT IN             
THE HWO...BUT NOT LOOKING AT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD ATTM.                          
THE WEAK FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVES EAST THROUGH IA/IL. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE AR BORDER...BUT OTHERWISE IT             
LOOKS TO BE A QUIET DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.                           
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A SOUTHERLY RETURN                
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER KS/OK WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED IN THE               
310-320K LAYERS OVER EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT             
CHANCE POP TO COVER THIS...NOTHING MORE THAN 20 PERCENT.                        
AGAIN...ALSO COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY                
OVER SOUTHERN MO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT ATTM COVERAGE                 
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE.                                                      
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE                   
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE WRF              
AND GFS HANDLE THIS A BIT DIFFERENTLY IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES              
OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE WRF PUSHING ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY            
INTO THE MO OZARKS REGION SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE              
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH. IN EITHER CASE...THE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WHICH             
BUILDS BACK TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUT A LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT                    
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES.                       
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY-TUESDAY IN            
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE PUSHES A BACK DOOR COLD                 
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF MO (AS DEPICTED BY THE                
GFS). I HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES OVER THE               
NORTHEAST CWA...BUT HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE               
GFS AND HPC GUIDANCE OVER SOUTHWEST MO AND SE KS. TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD REACH BACK UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S AND MAY TOUCH 100 DEG F             
IN SOME PLACES AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  DSA                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK SURFACE FRONT SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 44 AT 17Z.                 
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT TO A W-NW DIRECTION AT BOTH THE KSGF AND              
KJLN TERMINALS.                                                                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL                 
TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS.  WITH DIMINISHED CONVECTIVE CHANCES...WILL                
AMEND TO REMOVE VCTS FOR BOTH TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS                  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT                  
VEERING AROUND TO EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE.                                       
GAEDE                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1202 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                            
UPDATED THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER             
SRN COUNTIES AS WHAT LITTLE MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS HAS SHIFTED               
SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS REGION. THICK STRATO-CUMULUS CONTINUES TO HOLD            
OVER THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED            
ALONG THE DISSIPATING BAROCLINIC ZONE. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AS              
UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO ENHANCE MIXING/DRY ADVECTION.            
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES 3-4F OVER CENTRAL MO. EXPECT              
THAT MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL END UP FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS BY              
DAYS END AS A RESULT OF COLD ADVECTION OR CLOUD COVER.                          
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 228 AM CDT THU AUG 3 2006/                                              
SHORT WAVE WHICH CAME OUT OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND BROUGHT             
WIDESPREAD RAINS TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...WILL BE            
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z THIS MORNING. THIS INITIAL WAVE                
BEING KICKED OUT BY A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH PROFILERS SHOW                 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL                    
NEBRASKA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS SECONDARY WAVE MAY PRODUCE               
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS                  
MORNING ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT...PER THE NAM/WRF AND GFS...ALTHOUGH             
SOME DOUBT IN THESE MODELS SINCE THEY DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY                
GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL WAVE COMING THROUGH AT THIS TIME.  RUC               
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATTERN...AND IT TOO PRODUCES              
SOME PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ALONG THE 850 FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL            
MISSOURI...SO WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THAT AREA.                      
FURTHER SOUTH...ONGOING PRECIPITATION NEAR SURFACE FRONT SHOULD                 
CONTINUE PAST 12Z...BUT WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING FURTHER TO               
THE SOUTH...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT                  
SHOULD ALSO BE SLIDING SOUTH OF AREA. WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN               
FOR THIS MORNING...BUT CUT BACK POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY               
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF FORECAST AREA STILL WITH MENTION OF              
PRECIPITATION AS 850 FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION.                            
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP             
THINGS DRY. SOME CONCERN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SETTING UP FRIDAY                
NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE             
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE WILL SET UP...WITH THE            
NAM/WRF POINTING MORE TOWARD EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN                    
MISSOURI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT FOCUSED FURTHER TO THE WEST IN                
KANSAS. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE MENTION OF ANY                    
PRECIPITATION OUT OF FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS                 
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                                         
FINALLY WILL HAVE A BREAK FROM THE UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER TODAY               
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FINALLY COOLING TO BELOW 20 DEGREES. THIS              
SLIGHT COOL DOWN SHOULD LAST INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE WINDS            
GRADUALLY SWING FROM THE NORTH AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WARM UP ON             
SATURDAY HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP.             
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE              
BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS SOLUTION                                                
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
254 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE REMNANTS OF OUR TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE TO THE                  
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE                  
CONDITIONS TAKING OVER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL STILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE               
NORMAL...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER. A TROUGH IS                  
THEN FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW                  
ENGLAND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE               
INTO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL MERCURY READINGS WITH LITTLE OR NO                    
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                         
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE BULK OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL                     
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA. THE 12Z NAM/WRF AND GFS               
ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS VERY WELL...SO AM                       
SKEPTICAL TO RELY ON THEM FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. THE RUC IS ALSO                 
WOEFULLY OUT OF TOUCH AS WELL...SO AM USING SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR               
TRENDS AS THE MAIN FORECAST TOOL THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.                             
WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WAVES WAS OVER                   
WESTERN OHIO AT 18Z. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OR JUST TO OUR                  
SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT. ONCE IT MOVES TO OUR EAST...THE WAVY FRONT                 
WILL JUMP TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW DRIER AIR TO MOVE ACROS OUR                    
REGION FROM WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.                                             
HAVE RAISED POPS TO CAT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION DURING                
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AREAS                   
BORDERING THE U.S. LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORES WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS.               
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO                  
AROUND...THE AIRMASS OVER NEW YORK HAS STABILIZED A BIT SINCE THE               
MIDDAY. MUCH MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE                
BORDER WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL THEN ARRIVE IN FORCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY                 
AS A SFC HIGH WILL NOSE ITS WAY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE.                  
SKIES WILL BECOME P/M SUNNY FOR ALL AREAS...WITH ONLY A CHANCE FOR              
A LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWER OVER THE SRN TIER.                                    
A FLAT RIDGE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND                     
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING BEAUTIFUL               
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
WARM DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT COMFORTABLE/TOLERABLE AT NIGHT.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
OUR NEXT REAL THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER THE              
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS OVER. MODEL RUNS FROM YESTERDAY AND TODAY ARE              
CONSISTENT IN MOVING A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH FROM ONTARIO INTO                  
QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SURFACE LOW ACROSS QUEBEC WOULD              
DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS US ON MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE            
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.                          
THE VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A BIT AND MOVE EAST FROM MONDAY                
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO               
BUILD OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE US WITH A VERY NICE TUESDAY            
THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH                   
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA CEILINGS AND                     
VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OCCASIONAL                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH LOCAL              
IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER NORTH OF THE FRONT                  
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE                    
PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL                 
CLEARING MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES IN FOG. VFR                   
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME FRIDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EVEN FURTHER                  
SOUTH.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...RSH                                                                  
SHORT TERM...RSH                                                                
LONG TERM...SAGE                                                                
AVIATION...SAGE                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
303 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
BASED ON RECENT RUC, NAM WRF, AND GFS MODEL RUNS, EXPECT TWO OR                 
THREE BANDS OF PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS            
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING                 
WIND. LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS CAN GO OVER 1 OR 2 INCHES. FLASH FLOOD                 
GUIDANCE IS 2-2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.                                            
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THE MOISTURE CONTENT FRIDAY AND              
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS AS NAM AND GFS MOS               
VALUES SHOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
COOLER WEATHER WILL INVADE THE REGION AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES                    
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A COMFORTABLE WEEKEND WITH                    
LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                                                  
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE                
IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA AND RUC AND NAM WRF MODEL RUNS, EXPECT               
THE FIRST BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER             
OHIO VALLEY 18Z-21Z. FROM A CONSENSUS OF RUC AND NAM WRF MODEL RUNS,            
EXPECT ANOTHER BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO             
VALLEY BETWEEN 01Z-06Z. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY, WOULD NOT             
BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS AN INTERVENING BAND OF SCATTERED                       
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TIME FRAME OF 21Z-00Z. THE FIRST TWO BANDS OF              
STORMS HAVE MORE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.               
THE LAST BAND HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.                                
THE PREVAILING CLOUD BASES WILL BE BKN050 CUMULUS WITH VISIBILITIES             
UNRESTRICTED. IN THUNDERSTORMS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE TO            
3SM TSRA BR OVC020CB WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.              
BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, 08Z, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY                
MUCH GONE, HOWEVER, SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP (3SM BR                    
BKN020). BY 14Z, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM BKN040 CUMULUS.                
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WESTERLY THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER (TURN               
CLOCKWISE) INTO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS CAN              
BE 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS CAN             
GO OVER 50KTS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa