SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
156 PM MDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
...CONCERSN THIS FCST PERIOD ARE WINDS (FIRE-WX) AND CONVECTIVE                 
THREAT MONDAY...                                                                
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WEAK SFC LOW OVER EXTRM SE CO. OVER               
PLAINS WIND FLOW GENERALLY FROM A N-NE COMPONENT WHILE FLOW IN I-25             
CORRIDOR REGION GENRALLY VARIABLE. FLOW IN MTNS SW. DEEP R MOISTURE             
EXISTS OVER FAR E CLORADO...HOWEVER DEPTH OF MOISTURE OVER MOST OF              
REGION BELIEVED TO BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW.                                       
SHORT TERM...SHORT TERM FCST MODELS INDICATE SFC LOW/TROUGH SHOULD              
WORK ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TIME...WITH FLOW               
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY OVER PLAINS. I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT THIS                 
WILL HAPPEN AS FAST AS RUC IS INDICATING. PRECIP THREAT IN DEEPER               
MOSITURE STILL BELIEVE TO BE VERY SLIGHT AT BEST DUE TO SHALLOW                 
NATURE OF MOISTURE AND ILL DEFINED CONVERGENCE. LAPS ANALYSIS                   
HOWEVER INDICATES NO CAPPING...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE              
CASE.                                                                           
FCST DISCUSSION...MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS FCST                   
PERIOD IS JET (FLOW) WILL BE WORKING SOUTH AND WILL MOVE OVER                   
COLORADO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORT WAVES             
WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW AND WILL HAVE CONVECTIVE                          
RAMIFICATIONS ACROSS OUR REGION. LATER TONIGHT...ANTICIPATE FOG TO              
BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE E PLAINS AS T/TD SPREAD REACH                
ZERO UNDER CLEAR SKIES.                                                         
FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS WILL REFORM THE             
SFC LOW OVER THE AREA OVER NE CO...AND MOVE IT ENE ACROSS NE                    
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL PLACE SE CO TO THE S OF THIS LOW...                 
WHICH MEANS DOWNSLOPE DRY CONDTIONS FOR OUR CWA. WITH THINGS BEING              
DRY OVER THE PLAINS...THE FIRE DANGER OUT EAST WILL BE EVEN HIGHER.             
ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE DOWNSLOPE AND THREAT OF PRECIP (LTG) TOMORROW               
NIL...ANY HUMAN MADE FIRES COULD BE A SIGNIF THREAT. AS FOR THE                 
MTNS...FIRE WX THREAT NOT ALL THAT GREAT AS WINDS SHOULD NOT BE ALL             
THAT STRONG.                                                                    
MAIN CONCERN WHICH CAUGHT MY CONVECTIVE EYE IS MONDAY. AVN HAS A                
100+ KNOT JET MOVING ACROSS THE N TIER OF THE CENTENNIAL STATE ON               
THIS DAY. HAVING A JET OF THIS MAGNITUDE MOVING OVER THE STATE WITH             
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH IS A RECIPE FOR SIGNIF CONVECTION.           
DYNAMICALLY ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIF              
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LOW LEVELS ARE NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED AT THIS           
TIME. ALOT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FIRST SFC LOW              
MOVING INTO NE SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THAT SYSTEM BECOMES QUITE STRONG...             
THEN SFC FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS OUR FA ON MONDAY...AND              
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS LLVL MOISTURE WILL NOT GET            
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ON THE OTHER HAND....WITH SUCH AN                    
IMPRESSIVE JET COMING INTO THE STATE...THE PRESSURES ARE GOING TO               
START TO FALL QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE MTNS....            
THIS IN TURN WILL BRING THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY AND BRING THE                   
MOISTURE INTO THE FA. IN ADDITION...WITH EAST WINDS...0-6 KM SHEAR              
VECTORS WILL BE LARGE IN MAGNITUDE (>50 KNOTS) ACROSS THE EASTERN               
PLAINS...AND ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO           
ROTATE. OBVIOUSLY...IT IS QUITE TOO EARLY TO TRY TO DECIPHER THE                
DETAILS...BUT MONDAY COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING CONVECTIVELY ACROSS             
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...BEST THREAT FOR             
PRECIP ON THIS DATE WOULD BE THE PIKES PEAK REGION EAST TO KIOWA                
COUNTY. FOR NOW...WENT WITH A 20-30 CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE FA.                  
IN THE EXTENDED...TOUGH CALL. FLOW WILL BE OVER US THROUGH THE WEEK.            
WEAK SHORTS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE AND             
DO NOT SEE ANY DAY WHICH STANDS OUT. I AM EXPECTING ISOLD/SCTD                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH SOME OF THIS PERIOD. BEST CHANCES WOULD             
BE THE MTNS AND PIKES PEAK REGION...THEN THE DRYLINE...AND THEN THE             
REMAINDER OF THE FA. DUE TO THE TIMING ISSUES AND COVERAGE ISSUES...            
WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY ATTM.                                                    
HODANISH                                                                        
.PUB...NONE...                                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   co                                            

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
930 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST               
COAST WITH A BROAD AREA OF DIURNALLY AIDED SPEED/WEAK DIRECTIONAL               
CONVERGENCE. A FEW CONVERGENT CU LINES WERE NOTED ON VISIBLE TIME               
LAPSE FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD...AND KMLB 88D CONTINUES TO SHOW            
EMBEDDED -SHRA BUT DECREASING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RUC H50 VORT ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOBE FROM             
OFFSHORE KPBI STRETCHING SE ACROSS THE BAHAMA CHAIN. SOME THIN CI               
WAS STREAMING THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED SUBTROP JETSTREAM.            
THE 10Z KXMR RAOB SHOWED MOISTURE HAD DEEPENED EARLY THIS MORNING               
WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT H70.                                      
FORECAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS              
COASTAL/INLAND WINDS BECOME MORE UNIFORM IN DIRECTION/SPEED AND THE             
COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION CAUSES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE INVOF THE            
EAST COAST. UNTIL THEN WILL HANDLE REMNANT ISOLD SHOWERS FROM MLB               
NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM FCST. ALL AREAS WILL SEE PCDLY SKIES WITH               
SUBSIDENCE DECREASING COASTAL CLOUDINESS THEN SPREADING INLAND FROM             
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.                                                             
MARINE...WINDS 8-10KT WITH 3FT SEAS AT 41009 SO WILL NUDGE WINDS                
DOWN A HAIR IN THE FLG-COF.                                                     
NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS.                                                          
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...LASCODY                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMFL 061347  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
840 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
LATEST W/V IMAGERY SHOWING VORT CENTER SPINNING INTO E CENT MO ATTM             
WITH ONE BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO CENT IL. SOMETHING                
MORE TO NOTE WOULD BE SHRAS FILLING IN RAPIDLY BACK ACROSS CENT MO              
ON NOSE OF 40KT LLJ FOCUSING GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO AREA.                 
LATEST 00Z RUC DATA INDICATING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONV AT NOSE OF               
40-50KT LLJ INCREASING ACROSS E CENT MO BY 06Z AND THEN SHIFTING                
SLOWLY INTO SW AND E CENT IL DURING 06-12Z TIME FRAME. ALSO AIDING              
LIFT AND PCPN DEVELOPMENT WILL BY VORT MOVING INTO SRN IL. THEREFORE            
WOULD EXPECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING PCPN              
ACROSS MO NEXT FEW HOURS THEN SHIFTING INTO IL. BEST PCPN COVERAGE              
AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WITH              
LESSER COVERAGE MOVING NORTH. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP             
WORDING.                                                                        
FRIEDERS                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLOT 061956  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
WILL BE UPDATING PORTIONS OF THE ZONES TO INCREASE POPS FOR REASONS             
BELOW IN THE BATON ROUGE AND SW MS AREAS.  ELSEWHERE TEMPS AND POPS             
SEEM ON TRACK.                                                                  
AFTER ANALYZING 12Z DATA AND SCRUTINIZING THE SOUNDING BELIEVE THAT             
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT NEEDS WATCHING FOR                 
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. UPPER CUTOFF LOW             
IN THE TULSA AREA PRODUCING A MCS-MCC STRUCTURE EARL THIS MORNING               
WITH PROPAGATING FLANK HEADING DOWN BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY               
AXIS TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS MAINLY H50 AND                 
UPWARD WITH AN OPEN TROUGH BELOW THAT LAYER. A H50 TROUGH EXTENDS               
FROM THE LOW TO KLIT-KHEZ-KLFT WITH A -14C COLD POOL ALONG ITS AXIS.            
H85 THETAE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF INTO ACADIANA/ATCHAFALAYA                
REGION WHILE A THETAE TROUGH SITS OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.                
DEEP FETCHED TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS THE ENTIRE STATE IN 65+ DEWPOINTS            
WITH RELATIVELY STEEP DRY LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER.                   
RICKS INDEX/PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR OUTPUT USING A 330K LIFT AT                
900MB YIELDS THE FOLLOWING: POP=100%...PCPN=1.67"...POTL PCPN=5.04"             
FOR TEMPS BELOW 68F...FMAP=2.01"...RICKS INDEX=157 WITH A PROB OF               
SVR=12%...FCST GUSTS 52-62KT...FCST HAIL SIZE 1" WITH VIL OF THE DAY            
AT 49 J/KG.                                                                     
THE LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 329K H85 BULLSEYE ALONG THE MS RIVER NEAR            
WILKINSON CO MS FOR 21Z. THIS GIVES ME ENOUGH REASONING TO JUSTIFY A            
POP INCREASE FOR THE NW PART OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                     
COORDINATED AND DISCUSSED INTENTIONS WITH JACKSON.                              
.NEW...NONE                                                                     
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
24                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 061515  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
910 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
SYNOPSIS: SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT           
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK             
ON SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD MOST            
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE AN ONSHORE              
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY COOLER. A COLD FRONT WILL              
APPROACH NORTHERN AREAS LATE SUNDAY AND CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY              
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AIR AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES              
WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY.                                                         
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION: 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE             
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE RIDGING SOUTHWARD             
TOWARD TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINING VERY DRY           
AIR (DPTS IN THE 30S) AT THE SFC/LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM. TO             
THE WEST A STRONG WARM FRONT (WITH DPTS IN THE 60S) WAS EXTENDING               
ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUE PROV TO NEAR A KBTV-KDXR LINE.                             
WARM FRONT HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS            
LOW LEVEL JET (30+ KTS) DEPICTED WELL BY LATEST MESOETA/RUC RUNS                
RIDING THROUGH THE OTTAWA VALLEY IS INTERSECTING AND ENHANCING LOW              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION (LIGHTNING                 
STRIKES) HAVE INCREASED AS A RESULT JUST NORTH OF VT/NH BORDER IN               
CANADA. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET TO DIVE                   
SOUTHEAST ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND KEEPING BEST              
CONVECTION TO THE WEST WHILE MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACROSS              
CWA OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE ENCOUNTERING              
VERY DRY LOW LEVELS THUS LITTLE IF ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND.                
PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NICE JOB HOLDING OFF PCPN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.            
LATEST SFC OBS INDICATING DPTS SLOWLY INCREASING ESPECIALLY ACROSS              
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ALONG THE DOWNEAST                
COAST WITH ONSHORE COMPONENT.                                                   
BASED ON LOCAL RADAR/RADAR COMPOSITE WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY AND               
MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT CAT/LIKELY POP              
FORECAST AND WILL INDICATE PCPN TO BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ACROSS             
THE NORTH AND CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WORDING ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT ON              
THE UPDATE. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF PSBL TSRA IN ZONES.                       
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS WILL LOWER THE DOWNEAST COAST OTHERWISE MINS             
ELSEWHERE LOOK GOOD.                                                            
COASTAL WATERS...SOUTH WIND TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO           
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WIND INCREASING FROM THE S/SW SHOULD REACH           
SCA CRITERIA ON SUN.                                                            
BGR BU 051/069 060/080 056 05633  333/444/08                                    
CAR EU 050/071 055/070 050 05953  333/444/08                                    
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
FITZSIMMONS                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KGYX 070100  me                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE THE SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT.                       
IR SATELLITE/SFC OBS SHOW A COLD FRONT APPROACHING UPPER MICHIGAN               
FROM THE WEST. KDLH 88D SHOWS A BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA WITH THE COLD             
FRONT OVER N CENTRAL MN AT 01Z. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EXTEND SOUTH INTO            
E CENTRAL MN...BUT MOST OF THE ACTION IS TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER.            
FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS...CAPES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 500J/KG WITH LI/S              
NR 0. FORCING IS LIMITED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THERE IS MORE             
JET ENERGY ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE...SFC CONVERGENCE                
WITH THE COLD FRONT IS THE MAIN FORCING PRODUCING THE SHOWERS.                  
MODELS INDICATE THAT A 100KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER THE N ROCKIES            
WILL MOVE NE TO ONTARIO BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PLACES THE U.P. IN            
THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET. THIS APPEARS TO BE LIMITING                    
CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF S DAKOTA AND S MN...AND WILL DO THE SAME                
OVER THE U.P. LATER ON TONIGHT. SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FROM 0 TO 2C              
AND CAPES ARE UNDER 500 J/KG WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT CONVECTION. W/O              
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A REAL LACK OF A LL JET TONIGHT...AM                    
EXPECTING ONLY LGT SHRA OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.             
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL TAKE OUT SHRA AND TSRA IN THE                 
CENTRAL AND CURTAIL TSTM WORDING WEST. TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO LAST               
NIGHT AND WORKS WELL WITH THE GOING FCST. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE                
AMOUNT OF LAYER RH OVER WISCONSIN...ESP SINCE THE NEW ETA AND RUC               
SHOWS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND QPF OVER THE E U.P. AND NORTHERN                 
LOWER. THERE ARE SOME SPRINKLES S OF KGRB HEADING NE...SO WILL ADD              
SPRINKLES TO THE EAST TONIGHT.                                                  
UPON CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THE 18Z MESOETA...IT APPEARS THAT THE                
SOUTHERN U.P. MAY HAVE TO CONTENT WITH AN MCS SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE               
FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. ALL MODELS...ESP ETA AND                   
MESOETA INDICATE THAT OVER AN INCH OF QPF IS POSSIBLE ESP WEST. WILL            
BEEF UP THE WORDING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE SOUTH.                                 
COORD W/ APX                                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ALTOE                                                                           
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO              
LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED.            
PLEASE COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT                                            
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/MQT/FORECASTS/AFD_SURVEY.HTM     (USE LOWER CASE)              
YOUR COMMENTS AND OPINIONS WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR            
YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS PLEASE                
CONTACT ED FENELON AT (906) 475-5782 EXT 766 FOR A PAPER COPY OF THE            
SURVEY. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 070227  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1028 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
ANTICIPATE LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES TO ERN UPR/NRN LWR MI FORECASTS FOR            
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN ONCE AGAIN IS THREAT FOR ELEVATED            
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH A SMALL ONE AT THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF            
A FOCUSING MECHANISM.                                                           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE CONNECTION ACROSS THE            
SW STATES EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS (ASSOCIATED AHEAD OF            
UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAX ACROSS NW STATES). EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI               
RIVER...WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION (ENHANCED BY LAST NIGHT'S MCS ACTIVITY)          
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS ERN MISSOURI...WITH AN EVEN WEAKER VORT                
LOBE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPERIMPOSED UNDERNEATH BROAD UPPER RIDGING               
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. UP TO THIS POINT...SHOWERS ARE                  
WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS SE WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO THE MINIMAL                 
DIFFERENTIAL PVA.                                                               
THE CURRENT EXPECTATIONS REMAIN NO DIFFERENT FROM THE THINKING                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THAT IS WITH THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE                    
FLATTENING OUT AS IT CONTINUES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS BROAD UPPER                  
RIDGING. 850-500 MB Q-VECTORS ARE NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT AS A            
RESULT. SFC WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLACKEN FOLLOWING SUNSET...WITH                 
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED TO ALLOW WINDS OFF THE               
SFC (950-925 MB) TO CLIMB INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE (THIS ACCORDING TO            
LATEST 88D VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AND FROM LATEST RUC MODEL PROGS).              
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DECENT LOW-LVL INFLOW AND THETA-E RIDGING OFF             
THE SFC...THE LACK OF A BOUNDARY (FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE) AND 850-300            
THICKNESS DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF                 
MOISTURE CHANNELING AND (THUS) THE THREAT/COVERAGE OF NOCTURNAL                 
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...SE NO REASON TO SWAY FROM PRIOR FCST...             
WHICH HAD A LOW (30 PCT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN              
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                                                           
AREA TEMPS AT 02Z ARE RUNNING AROUND 5F HIGHER THAN FWC MOS. WHILE              
SFC WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED SOMEWHAT...WEAK FLOW/MIXING AND SCATTERED              
TO AT TIMES BROKEN CLOUDY LAYERS ARE LIMITING TEMPERATURE FALLS THUS            
FAR THIS EVENING. WILL LIKELY BOOST LOW TEMPS IN MOST ZONES AS A                
RESULT.                                                                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
HURLEY                                                                          
*** THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT              
HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD). PLEASE                
COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM.              
THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR               
YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE                
SURVEY...CONTACT BRUCE SMITH AT (517) 731-3384 EXT 766. THANK YOU               
FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 070152  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT             
LAKES REGION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FROM A CENTER IN THE SOUTHEAST US.            
THE RUC MODEL DATA AND 12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS... SHOWS UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THIS EVENING.                
CURRENT VISIBLE STLT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE AREA              
SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A                     
SCATTERED FIELD OF CU LINGERS OVER NRN LOWER WHICH DEVELOPED DUE TO LOW         
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-6C/KM WITH SURFACE DWPTS 55-60 AND               
850 MB DWPTS 8C OR HIGHER. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE                
NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION WITH A HIGH AMOUNT             
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT WITH LITTLE WELL                 
DEFINED LIFTING TO FOCUS CONVECTION.                                            
OVERALL MODEL DATA WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS              
WITH RESPECT TO THE CURRENT AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE             
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...HOWEVER THE MODELS DUE DIFFER WITH              
RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA. WILL LEAN          
TOWARD THE ETA WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IN AND OUT OF            
THE FORECAST AREA... AS THE NGM FORECASTED MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION             
INTO CENTRAL IL AND IND AT 12Z THIS MORNING WHILE THIS AREA HAD                 
REMAINED DRY ALL MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...SURFACE DWPTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE    
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH 850 MB DWPTS BETWEEN 8C AND 10C. PLENTY              
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND                   
THUNDERSTORMS... HOWEVER THE AREA LACKS FOCUSED ORGANIZED LIFT. THE             
BEST LIFT MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...              
WILL BE A 500 MB VORT MAX/LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN              
WITH 500/700 MB DPVA INCREASING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE               
FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK 850/700 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE INCREASING               
AFTER 06Z. WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR             
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A BETTER                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EVIDENT OVER EAST UPPER             
AND NORTHERN LOWER SUNDAY. A 850 MB THTE RIDGE BUILDS INTO EAST                 
UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH 850 MB DWPTS             
AROUND 10C TO 12C. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A WEAKENING SURFACE                 
FRONT MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND A VORT CENTER MOVING INTO EAST             
WISCONSIN. LIFTED INDEX WILL DROP TO -2 TO -4 OVER MUCH OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE WILL MENTION A                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.            
FOR MONDAY...CONTINUED HIGH 850 DWPTS AROUND 10C TO 12C WILL REMAIN             
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIFT BEING SUPPLIED BY A LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM MOVING OVER WISCONSIN. WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING IN THE                   
FORECAST AS THE BEST PUSH OF LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FROM THIS              
SYSTEM... WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.                                       
THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS MODELS PUSHING A SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB             
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE                 
EXITING INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SURFACE AND                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPLYING MOST             
OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY THE               
EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW                
PATTERNS. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND MRF DEVELOP A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE            
WESTERN US WHICH ENHANCES THE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN              
US. THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL WITH THE UPPER FLOW FRIDAY WITH A WEAKER            
TROUGH OF THE WESTERN US AND THEREFORE WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE                  
CENTRAL US. WILL LEAN MORE ON THE CANADIAN AND MRF THIS RUN AS EVEN             
THE WEAKER FLOW OF THE ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE BUILDING              
OVER THE CENTRAL US.                                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
*** THE NWS IN MICHIGAN IS CONDUCTING A SURVEY TO LEARN MORE ABOUT              
HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD). PLEASE                
COMPLETE THIS SHORT SURVEY AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/APX/AFD_SURVEY.HTM.              
THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR               
YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE                
SURVEY...CONTACT BRUCE SMITH AT (517) 731-3384 EXT 766. THANK YOU               
FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION.***                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 061958  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING WITH SITUATION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.             
CU FIELD TO FORM SOON AND POSSIBLY TAKE ON GOOD VERTICAL EXTENT AS              
AFTERNOON HEAT AND INSTABILITY BUILDS. HOWEVER TRIGGER FOR SCTRD                
CONVECTION STILL IN QUESTION. MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE WOULD BE A VORT             
LOBE EXTENDING EAST FROM THE VORT CENTER NEAR THE QUAD CITIES.                  
LATEST RUC AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS WILL ROTATE NORTH              
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SATELLITE/RADAR INDICATE                
SOME DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED.                      
MEADE                                                                           
*** THE NWS OFFICES IN MICHIGAN ARE CONDUCTING A USER SURVEY TO                 
LEARN MORE ABOUT HOW THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD) IS UTILIZED.            
PLEASE COMPLETE THE SHORT QUESTIONNAIRE AT                                      
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRR/AFD.HTM                                                    
THE FEEDBACK WE RECEIVE WILL HELP US PROVIDE A BETTER PRODUCT FOR               
YOU. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR IF YOU NEED A PAPER VERSION OF THE                
QUESTIONNAIRE PLEASE CONTACT RANDY GRAHAM AT (616) 949-0643 X766 ***            
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 061510  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
830 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
BIG QUESTION TNGT RMNS THE CHC FOR CONVECTION OR NOT. 01Z SFC                   
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CDFNT...STNRY AT THIS POINT...FM BETWEEN KBKX AND            
KATY...STRETCHING SWRD TO JUST E OF KMHE AND KSFD. LATEST RUC SHOWS             
NO MOVEMENT OF THIS BNDRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AS UPPER             
LEVEL SUPPORT TOO ANEMIC OR NON EXISTANT TO PUSH IT ANYWHERE. 00Z               
SNDGS FROM KOAX...KLBF AND KMSP STILL SHOW ONE HECK OF A CAP. THE               
ONLY WAY CONVECTION WOULD GO ON THESE SNDGS IS ELEVATED...AND THERE             
IS ABSOLUTELY NO MSTR FM H7 ON UP...WITH MID LVL DPD'S RUNNING AT 30            
DEG C OR GREATER. SO NOTHING WL GO ELEVATED EITHER. KABR SNDG IS NOT            
CAPPED BEHIND THE BNDRY...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE NO MID OR UPR LVL             
TRIGGER ANYMORE TO INITIATE TSTMS...AND 00Z RUC SHOWS LITTLE HELP OF            
ANY MID LVL SUPPORT DVLPING TNGT TO SPARK CONVECTION. AREA WIND                 
PROFILERS SHOW UNI DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FM THE SW TO WSW...EVEN AT THE             
LLVLS...NOT GOOD FOR CONVECTION.                                                
ONE AREA THAT COULD GET GOING...AS PER SPC DISCS...IS FURTHER WEST              
IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE AN 850MB THTE AXIS EXISTS WITH                   
ATLEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WK LLVL JET. MSAS LLVL GRIDS SHOW                   
EXCELLENCE CONV OVR WRN NEB...TO SE WY...AND MESOETA CONSISTENTLY               
PROGS A H5 VORT MAX TNGT ACRS NRN NEB...PSBLY IN RESPONSE TO                    
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WL LV MENTION OF TSTMS IN THE WRN PTN OF FSD            
CWA FOR TNGT...WHERE ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION MAY CLIP LATER TNGT             
BEFORE IT DIES IN THE CAP HERE IN THE EAST. WL UPDATE SHORTLY TO                
TAKE OUT MENTION OF ANY EVE TSTMS.                                              
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 FUHS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 070023  sd                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
100 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING AND TO UP A FEW HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES.  AMARILLO/S RECORD FOR TODAY IS 94 SO THIS COULD                  
FALL BY THE WAYSIDE.  SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST TEXAS                      
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED HANG AROUND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                         
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUC.  SO WINDS WERE ALSO UPDATED.                       
AMA...                                                                          
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
GOEHRING                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 061713 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1010 AM EDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST BASICALLY ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. ONE CHANGE               
WILL BE MADE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR TSTMS WEST OF THE BLUE            
RIDGE AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z SOUNDING FROM RNK...AND MODEL DATA.                  
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...BUT JUST A SHADE DRIER. ETA/RUC KEEP             
THTE RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE WEST DURING PEAK HEATING. CALCULATED                
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ALSO SIMILAR TO YDY. 06Z META ACTUALLY HAS                
THTE MIN???  BUBBLE OF HIGHER THTE WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN SIMILAR               
H8/SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS. VIS SAT PIX ALREADY SHOWING SOME CU                     
DEVELOPING OVER NC NRN MOUNTAINS AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.                    
.RNK.                                                                           
.VA...NONE.                                                                     
.NC...NONE.                                                                     
.WV...NONE.                                                                     
NOGUEIRA                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   va                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
827 AM PDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                       
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. INITIALIZATION LIMITED THIS MORNING PER SLOW                
INFLOW OF MDL DATA. ALL MDLS (NEW/OLD) SEEMINGLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT           
WITH INCRG INSTBY THIS MORNING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACRS NRN AREAS.              
SATELLITE INDICATING CONVECTIVE CELLS OFF NRN CST TO MOVE INLAND THIS           
MORNING...WITH SW THERMAL WINDS HINTING AT THE WAA TO LATER OCCUR               
THIS AFTERNOON ALOFT. BY AFTERNOON AMS STABILIZING IN THESE HIR                 
LAYERS WITH WARMING/CAP 700MB UP. HOWEVER LOW LVL INSTBY INCRG WITH             
MORE SUN THUS IDEA OF SCT -SHRA AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING                
LOOKS GOOD. LIFT TOO SHALLOW TO PRODUCE ANY ICE PELLETS TODAY... SO             
IDEA OF SIMPLE SHRA SEEMS WAY TO GO. AMS VERY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF             
YEAR WITH TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING VERY DRY CONDS TONIGHT. THAT              
COUPLED WITH ELY SFC GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW MIN T'S TO BOTTOM OUT.               
WANT TO SEE THE RUC LATER TODAY TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR DEW POINTS             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO APPLY TWD TONIGHT'S LOWS.  LOOKING LIKE PATCHY           
FROST NONETHELESS.  OTHWS... DRY SPLIT FLOW NEXT COUPLE DAYS TIL FLOW           
CONSOLIDATES TUE WITH WINTER-LIKE LONG WAVE LOW GRADUALLY MOVG OVR              
AREA MID WEEK.  QUERCIAGROSSA                                                   
UIL 411 SEA 211 OLM 211                                                         
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL                                               
.SEW...NONE.                                                                    
N                                                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   wa                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
1013 AM MDT SAT MAY 6 2000                                                      
CDFNT HAD MOVD THRU MOST OF CWA BY MID MRNG...WITH ONLY RWL AND SAA NOT         
IN THE COOLER AIR YET.  NEW AMS BHND FNT IS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER THAN          
THAT OF FRI.  FCST TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK FINE FOR TDA...WITH THE MAIN            
QSTN BEING POPS AND INTENSITY OF ANY TSTMS.  WITH A STBL AND DRIER AMS          
NOW IN PLACE AND THE MAIN SFC FORCING TO THE E OF THE CWA WITH THE CDFNT        
IT APRS THAT SVR TSTM ACTVTY IS NOT TOO LKLY THRU THE AFTN.  IN                 
ADTN...THE ONLY DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF IS THE CURRENT SHRTWV TROF IN              
NRN AND WRN WY...LIFTING NE INTO MT.  NEW RUC AND ETA STILL STEEPEN             
LAPSE RATES WITH B2 TO B4 IN THE WRN NEB PNHNDL TO NEAR DGW BY 00Z.             
HWVR...CAPE VALUES ON THE 12Z ETA ARE NOW DOWN TO BTN 200 AND 600 IN THAT       
AREA.  IT APRS THAT SHWRS WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE SLWLY SAGGING ESE           
BCLNC CLD BAND NOW FROM NE TO SW WY.  SHWRS WERE NOTED ON RIW 88D IN            
PORTIONS OF THAT AREA.  WILL KEEP THE GOING 20 TO 30 PCT POPS FOR               
THE AFTN AND TRY TO TIME FROM W TO E OVR THE CWA.                               
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
WEILAND                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   wy                                            

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
315 AM MDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                       
LOW-AMPLITUDE FAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE                 
DEVIL IN THE DETAILS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO                 
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.  STILL AFTER LOTS OF ANALYSIS...              
THE IMPORTANT PARAMETERS REMAIN OPAQUE AND HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO               
DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DETAILS:                                    
CURRENTLY: AT THE JET LEVEL...ETA/RUC MATCH WATER VAPOR WELL WITH               
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF APPROACHING JET NOSE. AT THE SURFACE...                
MODELS ARE NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT                   
BASIN AT 06Z...THOUGH THE NGM IS CLOSE. GENERALLY IN THIS PATTERN...            
MODELS ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE IMPORTANT DETAILS.  FRONTAL ZONE                   
STRETCHED LAZILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH            
A STAND-UP 700MB BAROCLINIC LEAF PASSING. LITTLE REFLECTION AT SFC OF           
THIS FEATURE EXCEPT GUSTS AND LIGHT RAIN AT VERNAL...AND PROBABLY               
NORTHERN CO MTNS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE NEXT ENHANCED AREA IS AT 40/140            
AT 08Z AND WILL ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
TODAY: GOES SOUNDER SHOWS NO 500MB DIRECTLY COOLING BEHIND                      
THE CURRENT BAROCLINIC LEAF...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE MORNING              
HOURS EXCEPT NORTH CO MTNS. 2C COOLING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH                
THE JET NOSE THIS AFTERNOON. ETA/NGM ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE            
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) IN THE LEFT EXIT QUAD OF THE            
STRAIGHT-LINE JET.  ALL MODELS PRODUCE MILD INSTABILITY/LIFT. LIFT              
IS FROM 7-3 FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...WHILE ONLY 7-5 IN THE SOUTH.            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS THE MISSING INGREDIENT AND AREA DEWPOINTS AND             
NGM MOS IS CLOSE AT 06HR/06Z. ALSO GOES TPW SHOWS AREAS OF 1.6                  
INCHES PW OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST.  SO WILL ACCEPT                
GUIDANCE POPS.  ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH MTNS WITH SOUTH VALLEYS              
DRY.  TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN BETWEEN GUIDANCE VALUES WITH WINDS                  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN SATURDAY.  FIRE DANGER REMAINS HIGH WITH                 
WETTING RAINS ONLY OCCURRING LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE NORTH.                
TONIGHT: SFC FRONT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF I-70 TODAY BUT IS PROGGED             
TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS PRODUCE MOIST 7-5 OMEGA CENTRAL AND            
SOUTH TONIGHT...AND THE FROPA MAY BE THE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AND             
SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVEL AT 9-10K MSL.                                              
MONDAY: ANOTHER 2C COOLING PROGGED AT 500MB FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS.            
GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.                                                    
EXTENDED: THE NEW MRF/CANADIAN FCST TUESDAY TO BE DRY...BUT WITH                
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE BROADBRUSH WILL BE LEFT AS IS.                  
99/RAMEY                                                                        
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A HEIGHTENED LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY DUE TO HIGH FIRE                  
DANGER.                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 070910  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
250 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                       
AT 1 AM SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO FEATURE HEAT/HUMIDITY PUMP HIGH            
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT HAS EASED                   
THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND TRAILS BACK TO THE NEBRASKA                 
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE WHICH SHOULD RETARD ANY CLOSE               
APPROACH TO IL FOR NOW. OLD VORT MAX LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN IL HAS               
BEEN DOING A RERUN OF LAST NIGHT'S OKLAHOMA CORE DUMP, THIS TIME                
NEAR ST LOUIS. LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LARGELY THERMALLY DRIVEN            
AFTER YESTERDAY'S WELL OVER 100 DEGREE TEMPS WARMED ATMOSPHERE DRY              
ADIABATICALLY TO 500 MB.                                                        
BURNING QUESTIONS THIS MORNING ARE 1) HOW HOT TODAY AND ESPECIALLY              
MONDAY? AND 2) WHEN NEXT MIGHT IT RAIN IN OUR CWFA?                             
ALTHOUGH 00Z ANALYSIS AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST DID FORECAST 850 SOME              
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE OUR AREA, LASTING INTO FIRST             
PART OF THE DAY. MAIN EVIDENCE NOW IS IN THE INCREASING STRATOCU                
FIELD INDICATED ON LATEST LOWER CLOUD CURVE, OVER MUCH OUR SOUTHWEST            
CWFA. THE SOUTHERN VORT MAX SHOULD SAP ANY THREAT OF WIDESPREAD                 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REACHING OUR CWFA WITH MAIN ACTION MOVING EAST               
WITH VORT MAX.  HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME STRAY SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN                
STRATOCU FIELD, APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND LATEST 06Z RUC            
DOES SHOW WIDESPREAD FEW HUNDREDTHS THIS MORNING, SO MAY YET HOLD ON            
TO SOME LOW POPS, EXCEPT A BIT HIGHER FAR SOUTHEAST TODAY. WILL WAIT            
ON THIS UNTIL LAST MINUTE. THEN CLEAR MODELS' MESSAGE IS FOR                    
INCREASING CAP STRENGTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY, AIDED BY SUPERHEATED                
SOUTHERN PLAINS AIR, TO CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP AT BAY UNTIL ARRIVAL            
OF FRONT MONDAY P.M. WHEN IT SHOULD ARRIVE WITH A LOUD BANG AND                 
HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINS.                                                         
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL AND CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE                 
HEADED FOR AN EVEN WORSE PERFORMANCE, CERTAINLY MONDAY.                         
TODAY...STRATOCU MAY HOLD TEMPS BELOW YESTERDAY'S BUT PROBABLY STILL            
A BIT ABOVE MOS. BY MONDAY...850 TEMPS RANGE FROM 16-17 IN COOLEST              
MODELS TO >20 IN ETA AND WITHOUT A LOT OF CLOUDS EXPECTED, AND PREFRONTAL       
SUBSIDENCE WARMING. BOTH MOS #S ARE CLUELESS. 90 CERTAINLY NOT OUT              
OF THE QUESTION IN CHICAGO MONDAY, THOUGH THE RECORD OF 94 APPEARS              
OUT OF REACH.                                                                   
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
KAPLAN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 070142  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                       
FCST CONCERNS: PRECIP CHCS LATE TONIGHT...MON AND TUES                          
               TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD                                            
PESKY OLE UPR LOW MAKING A SLOW EXIT THIS AM.  LINGERING -SHRA                  
RMN ACRS ERN CWA BUT FEEL ACTIVITY WL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFT                     
ZONE PKG RELEASE.  MAIN CONCERN IN THE FIRST PD IS THE PERSISTENCE              
OF CLD COVER.                                                                   
MRNG SFC ANALYSIS HAS WARM FRONT STRETCHING FRM SFC LOW OVR TX                  
PANHANDLE INTO NW AR.  RUC/ETA BOTH SHOW ISN LIFT CTN THRU                      
18Z SUN THUS...FEEL STRATUS WL HANG OVR MOST OF THE CWA UNTIL                   
MID DAY.  LO LVL GRAD INCRS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTN                       
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS.  CLDS SHULD BEGIN TO BREAK                     
IN THE 18-20Z TIME PERIOD.  NEXT QUESTION IS IF CLDS WL BREAK                   
SOON ENUF TO ALLOW TEMPS TO MAX OUT.  ETA DEPICTING H8 TEMPS                    
AOA 20C ACRS WRN CWA BY 00Z.  NGM AND AVN COOLER...WITH H8                      
TEMPS ARND 17C.  FWC NUMBERS LOOK A LTL COOL...PREFER WARMER FAN                
NUMBERS. AM HESITANT TO GO AS HIGH AS ETA TEMP GRIDS AS...MOISTURE              
BEING ADVECTING NWD FRM WATERLOGGED OK MAY KEEP TEMPS TO MIX                    
OUT DRY ADIABATICALLY.                                                          
NEXT QUESTION WHETHER TO INTRO POPS LATE TONIGHT OVR XTRM NW PART OF            
CWA. AVN DEVELOPS 45 LLJ ACRS CTL KS OVERNIGHT. AXIS OF JET SHIFTS              
SOUTH AND EAST BY 12Z MON...WITH NOSE OF LLJ POKING INTO NWRN PART              
OF CWA. THETAE RDG AXIS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS FRM NER KS INTO ERN IA            
BY 12Z MON. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVR NRN PLAINS                
OVERNIGHT. THETAE AND WIND FIELDS HINT THAT CONVECTION CULD DEVELOP             
AS FAR SOUTH AS NW MO.  CAP STRENGTH WL BE LIMITING FACTOR IN SWD               
DEVELOPMENT. AM INCLINED TO LEAVE MENTION OF POPS OUT DUE TO STRENGH            
OF CAP. CAP REMAINS STRONG THRU MRNG AND AFTN ACRS MOST OF CWA.                 
APPROACHING FRONT WL INCRS LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BY EARLY AFTN                    
ACRS NW.  THIS COUPLED WITH INCRSG UPR DIVERGENCE SHULD HELP                    
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALNG FRONT. QUESTION IS WHETHER TO INTRO                  
LO POPS IN METRO AREA ZONES.  FEEL BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WL                      
RMN NORTH OF METRO THRU 00Z TUESDAY.  CHCS OF PRECIP SEEM PRETTY                
GOOD FOR ENTIRE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUES BUT...DUE TO CONVECTIVE                  
NATURE OF PRECIP WL NOT GO TOO CRAZY.                                           
AM MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH WARMER FWC NUMBERS ON MONDAY.  COMPRESSION          
ALONG FRONT SHULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB AOA FWC VALUES.  MOISTURE POOL               
ALNG FRONT SHULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TWD THE NR 90 TEMPS                
PROGGED BY ETA.                                                                 
.EAX...NONE.                                                                    
24                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KSGF 070729  mo                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                       
FORECAST QUANDARIES...PCPN CHANCES...TEMPERATURES.                              
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND               
SURFACE LAPS/HAND ANALYSES SHOWING CWA UNDER RIDGING INFLUENCES                 
...RESULTING IN "MUGGY" CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS                 
IN THE 60S...WITH SOUTHERNLY WINDS. RUC/UPPER AIR CHART ANALYSES                
DEPICTING DIGGING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER                   
EASTERN MISSOURI MOVING ACROSS REGION AS AFFECTS OF UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGING MOVE UPSTREAM. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE             
OF AN 850MB SW JET ACROSS AREA...SUPPORTING CONTINUED TEMPERATURE               
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.                                                         
00Z SUN REGIONAL MODEL SURFACE INITIALIZATIONS SIMILAR WITH AVN/ETA             
UPPER LEVEL INITIALIZATIONS PREFERRED DUE TO "HANDLING" OF                      
DEVELOPING MCS OVER EASTERN MISSOURI. SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH                   
00Z TUE WILL KEEP AREA UNDER SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES AS EASTERN              
PLAINS OF COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED                 
AND MOVES NE INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY 00Z TUE. THIS                     
WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE             
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLOW EASTWARD                 
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS REGION WITH               
UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZATION DIFFUSING TODAY. AS UPPER LEVEL                    
TROUGH PASSES...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN AIRMASS MOISTURE WITH THE               
POSSIBILITY OF SKIES BECOMING OCCASIONALLY BKN DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
LAST ZONE ISSUANCE STILL IN LINE WITH SKY CONDITIONS THROUGH                    
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.                                                            
ETA/NGM MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LOW POP POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER           
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH AVN FAN VALUES TRENDING TOO              
HIGH. BELIEVE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL BE IN NW                  
PORTIONS OF REGION CLOSEST TO SURFACE LOW PROGRESSION AND ANY                   
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL MODELS...NGM THE MOST                        
PROGRESSIVE...CONTINUING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL OVER EASTERN            
ZONES AND WILL INTRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED POPS THERE.                           
TEMPERATURES...WILL GO IN LINE WITH NGM MOS/AVN FAN VALUES ON HIGHS             
AS BKN CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM                  
REACHING MAXIMUM SUNSHINE POTENTIAL. NGM MOS/AVN FAN VALUES FOR                 
LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL TREND                 
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA 084/063/086/065 2111                                                        
CSV 082/059/083/061 2111                                                        
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 070644  tn                                      

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                      
...WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP...                                               
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AM            
WITH TEMPS IN GENERAL A BIT WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT             
HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH NEAR 90 IN THE SUSQ VALL WITH M-U80S MOST             
OTHER SPOTS. REC HIGH OF 93 AT MDT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE                 
QUESTION BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES FOR NOW. CU MACRO CONTINUES TO             
SUGGEST PTSUNNY SKIES OVER THE N AND W MTNS WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST             
REMAIN MSUNNY.                                                                  
RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDELY SCT CONVECTION                    
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                        
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
FITZGERALD                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KPHI 070743  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1015 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                      
MCS ACROSS EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL SLOWLY SHRINKING. LATEST RUC/ETA              
SUGGESTS MAIN AFFECT OF DYING SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF              
THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY BUT STILL HELP                
KEEP PRECIP SCATTERED AT BEST. FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES SETTING UP ACROSS            
AREA FROM MCS AND EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS              
RISING INTO THE MID 60S AND SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY                  
INCREASING. WILL UP POPS TO SCATTERED CATEGORY. TEMPS NEED LITTLE               
WORK AS WELL. 07                                                                
BNA...NONE.                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 071408  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 2000                                                       
A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EXTREMELY HIGH                
LAPSE RATE AIR WEST OF THE DRY LINE.  STILL NOT SURE THAT LOWER-                
BASED (BUT STILL RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED GIVEN THE TEMP AND                       
DEW POINTS AT SPS) CONVECTION CAN FORM ON THE DRY LINE...GIVEN THE              
STRENGTH OF THE CAP.  HOWEVER...AWIPS LAPS AND RUC2 DATA INDICATE               
THAT CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED IN THE AREA BETWEEN SPS AND                 
ABI AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE 100 DEG F AGAIN..  SO A FEW                      
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ACTUALLY COULD BE INGESTING SOME GULF MOISTURE ARE           
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
WE WILL UPDATE AND CALL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS             
IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.                                                      
.FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT.                          
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</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEPZ 072019  tx