FXUS64 KMOB 042058
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
238 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2003

LATEST ANALYSES HAVE FRONT BOUNDARY CLEAR OF CWA AS XPCTD. ALIGNMENT
OF FRONT WITH UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING IT TO A STANDSTILL...
UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. WIND
BEHIND IT WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH
NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING SAVE SMALL GRAVITY CURRENT ANOMALIES EXPECTED
OVER COASTLINE ALONG THE BAYS.

GFS SOLUTIONS FROM TODAY AND YESTERDAY IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING THOUGH
THE PATTERN IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGY FROM EAST TO WEST THAN THE 03.00
RUN SHOWED. HOWEVER THE 04.00 RUN SHOWS LESS OF A SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
BOTTOM LINE FOR THAT IS A COOLER TREND WITH A DRY BIAS. ETA AND GFS
IN CONCURRENCE ON CURRENT PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEPICTING SFC
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SHIFT EAST TO THE MID LANT COAST BY
THU. A DEEP LAYER ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FEATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY 00Z FRI ALL SHOW A SPREADING
PATTERN OF RAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH AS NEXT DEVELOPING S/W BEGINS
MOVING IN. AVN IS MUCH MORE LIBERAL WITH THE RAIN COVERAGE DEPICTION
THAN THE MET AND FWC. THIS SIGNAL IS ALSO PULLED UP IN THE MAV FWC
AND MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE MAV THAN THE MET AND
FWC. A VEXING PROBLEM...WHERE IS WINTRY MIX IS COMING FROM IN THE MAV
GUIDANCE? GIVEN MARGINAL THICKNESS VALUES OVER MEI/2R0 & AREAS
NORTHWEST...WOULD CONSIDER THIS...BUT DO NOT SEE ANYTHING NEAR
FREEZING 12Z FRI NORTHWEST. WILL IGNORE FROZEN PRECIP CALLS IN MAV
GUIDANCE FOR NOW WITH A WATCHFUL STANCE.

EXTENDED...COLD REINFORCEMENT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS AS EARLIER BY
ABOUT 12 HR FOR THE WEEKEND...IE...SUNDAY MORNING VICE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE SHALLOW COLD AIR LAYER STILL IN PLACE AS 00Z RUN SHOWED...BUT
NOT POINTING TO ANY MORE ISENTROPIC LIFTING AT 300K...RATHER...
REVERTED TO ISENTROPIC SINKING. IT MAY BE MORE DRIPPY SATURDAY THAN
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES. SUNDAY SHOULD BRIGHTEN UP
ACCORDING TO THESE DIGITS. ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS UNMOVED AS
FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF. FORCEFUL LAYER LIFTING /
OVERRUNNING IS VERY EVIDENT IN OMEGA FIELD FOR 04.12Z AVN BUT AVN IS
THE ONLY ONE SO FAR WHICH HAS SHOWN THIS.

MARINE...RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. SPEED LIGHT TO MODERATE 10 TO
15 KT. LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS LEADS US TO EXPECT A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE GULF. THIS BRING INCREASED PRECIP COVERAGE OVER THE
MARINE AREA THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...BRINGING A STRONG OFFSHORE COMPONENT AND
BUILDING SEA STATE. STILL COULD SEE SOME OVERRUNNING POST-FRONTAL
RAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREA...LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
LESS SO OVER MOBILE BAY.

FIRE...ALTHOUGH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS...IT WILL
CONTINUE DRY WITH NO RAIN FORECAST.

THANKS JAN FOR COORD.

PUBLIC /77
MARINE/FIRE /10

PRELIM CCF NUMBERS...
MOB ER 033/057 044/055 043 77000
PNS ER 035/057 045/056 045 77000
DTS ER 038/060 048/056 049 77000
GZH ER 029/056 037/053 041 77000
2R0 ER 029/054 038/051 041 77000
61A ER 029/055 036/051 041 77000

MOB...
.MS...NONE.
.AL...NONE.
.FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY FLZ001>006-008.