FXUS65 KABQ 061017
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST MON DEC 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER FAR SW AZ BEGINNING
TO OPEN UP AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...
HOWEVER SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WERE STILL NOTED. WILL SIDE WITH GFS WITH
RESPECT TO STRENGTH AND SPEED OF NEUTRALLY TILTED TROUGH. AREA OF
PCPN FORMING PER KABX/KFDX RADARS WITH CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
SPOTTERS NOTING ACCUMULATIONS STARTING ALONG WESTERN I-40 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AS THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. STILL FEEL THAT BEST
THREAT FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF BY AFTERNOON. WSWABQ IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL ADJUST
SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. STILL ON THE FENCE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPS INCREASED IN THE VALLEY AS CLOUD COVER
ULTIMATELY CUT OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...ONCE PCPN MOVES
INTO THE AREA...EVAPORATIVELY COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT SNOWFALL IN THE
HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLY IN THE VALLEY FLOORS. WILL MAINTAIN ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR NOW...BUT WITH PCPN OCCURRING DURING RUSH HOUR...ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL WARRANT ADVISORY TO BE EXPANDED. 700MB FLOW
SHIFTS PERPENDICULARLY TO CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY 18Z. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE SFC WINDS AND SCOUR OUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ERN PLAINS. WILL SIDE WITH ETA FOR QPF
AND REDUCE POPS TO ISOLD COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
FOR FAR NE ZONES. ONCE AGAIN...WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET FOR
SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS. ETA FOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40. WILL DEFER
WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR DAY SHIFT AS STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE/SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISOLD PCPN FOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND NW
MOUNTAINS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED EXCEPT HIGHEST
PEAKS. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TUES WITH QUIET WEATHER FORECAST. WEAK
TROUGH PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH REGION TUES NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING BEST THREAT OVER NW/
WEST CENTRAL ZONES. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPRESS PCPN
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER PACIFIC
OCEAN STARTING THU AND WILL NOSE INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS
SHOULD DISPLACE JET STREAM TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. DRY WEATHER
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SAT BEFORE A TROUGH RIDES THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE ON MON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH ALONG FRONT RANGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD INCREASE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUN NIGHT/MON AND PROVIDE A THREAT FOR PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 038/022 042/024 043 46510
GALLUP.................... 035/014 041/019 042 46820
GRANTS.................... 037/015 042/019 045 46610
GLENWOOD.................. 045/027 053/026 056 46710
CHAMA..................... 031/005 037/009 037 46520
LOS ALAMOS................ 033/020 039/025 040 46510
RED RIVER................. 032/005 036/010 038 46410
TAOS...................... 036/009 041/013 043 46310
SANTA FE.................. 035/017 041/019 043 46610
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 038/020 042/022 044 46610
ESPANOLA.................. 041/019 045/021 047 46510
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 043/027 046/028 048 46600
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 043/023 047/024 048 46600
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 040/024 045/025 045 46600
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 042/026 046/027 046 46610
SOCORRO................... 042/023 051/026 050 46600
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 035/020 043/023 044 46700
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 039/014 047/016 048 46600
CARRIZOZO................. 042/025 052/028 053 46700
RUIDOSO................... 037/020 050/024 049 46700
RATON..................... 045/014 047/018 052 46200
LAS VEGAS................. 042/020 047/024 049 46300
ROY....................... 046/021 050/025 054 46200
CLAYTON................... 051/025 052/029 057 46100
SANTA ROSA................ 051/022 053/025 055 46300
TUCUMCARI................. 054/028 056/031 059 46200
FORT SUMNER............... 055/028 056/029 058 46300
CLOVIS.................... 054/028 056/031 058 46300
PORTALES.................. 054/027 057/030 059 46300
ROSWELL................... 058/030 058/031 061 46400
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY NMZ008-014-010-011-016-017-026 THROUGH NOON TODAY.

&&

$$

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