000
AXNT20 KNHC 231347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING 
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W...AND THEN 
CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 2N10W 4N12W 5N14W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W... 
FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N 
BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...AND FROM BRAZIL NORTHWARD WITHIN 45 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 3S41W 2S43W 1N44W 4N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 49W AND 
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST
OF 90W. THE FLOW FROM 90W EASTWARD IS EITHER NORTHWESTERLY OR
NORTHERLY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH GOES FROM BERMUDA TO
THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W AND FINALLY TO WESTERN JAMAICA. 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF 
WATERS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N78W TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THE FORECAST FOR 
THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FOR EASTERLY SURFACE 
WINDS AND NO COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
PASSING THROUGH 19N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...
TO 16N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 16N70W TO 14N73W TO
13N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N FROM 80W EASTWARD
BEYOND 60W INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM TO
45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/TROUGH EAST OF 
70W...BECOMING ISOLATED WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
SYSTEM WEST OF 70W. THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS PUERTO RICO AND 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 16N80W 17N70W 18N68W TO 
20N...COVERING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
THE REST OF THE AREA IS FILLED WITH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA TROUGH. SOME OF THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TROUGH...AND SOME IS RELATED TO WESTERLY WINDS MOVING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NEAR BERMUDA...AND THEN
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...AND FINISHES NEAR 18N79W JUST OFF
THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 29N40W 
24N50W TO 19N60W AND BEYOND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N63W 22N60W 27N50W 
BEYOND 32N38W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 19N42W TO 26N38W 
BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT...FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N23W TO 
24N37W TO 15N50W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 31N3W ALONG THE MOROCCO/ALGERIA 
BORDER TO 23N12W IN MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

$$
MT