FXUS64 KMAF 260853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
343 AM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF ROCKY MOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH. CORRESPONDING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY EVENING. WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND TODAY AND THIS
EVENING...AIDED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN.
DECIDED TO INCLUDE UPTON AND REAGAN COUNTIES OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN IN ISOLATED POPS AS WELL AS ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL TO BREAK CAP WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S WITH CAPE ABOVE 1500 J/KG EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. DID
NOT INCLUDE THE EXTREME WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS IN ISOLATED
MENTION AS THAT AREA WILL BE NORTH OF TRACK OF WAVE DESPITE SOME
INSTABILITY. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS AND USED THE
ETA80 WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEING TO GIVE WAY AS WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND OVER THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY.  SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH... BUT
THEN THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE.

MAIN CONCERN IS APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.  GIVEN RICH
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE TO BELIEVE WILL SEE STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG FRONT.  LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW FRONT PUSHING OUR NORTHERN CWA
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON... MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN BY MIDNIGHT... AND THEN PUSHING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY
MORNING.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT DEVELOPING PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY... WILL INCREASE POPS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  GIVEN GOOD
EXPECTED LIFT DUE TO STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT HAVE TO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
BOTH SEVERE AND FLOODING AS SHOW AREA WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH
INCREASING CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  WILL
INCLUDE IN HWO BUT NOT IN ZONES AT THIS TIME.  TIMING OF FROPA ALWAYS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE... PARTICULARLY IF CONVECTION HELPS PUSH FRONT
SOUTHWARD.

GUIDANCE GOING MUCH COOLER ON SATURDAY THEN CURRENT FORECAST SO HAVE
STARTED TRENDING TEMPS DOWN... WILL SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             96  74  97  71 /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               99  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 97  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          98  73  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX         93  69  93  71 /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                  98  65  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                  93  64  89  63 /  10  10  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   98  73  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 98  71  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                  105  73 102  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

$$

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