SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
152 PM MDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
...THREAT REMAINS FOR STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN               
COLORADO THIS EVENING...                                                        
TONIGHT: CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWED WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT            
LOBE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN CO WITH ANOTHER WAVE INTO CENTRAL              
AZ.  18Z/02 SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD DRYLINE BETWEEN KLHX AND KLAA TO               
JUST WEST OF KSPD.  LAPS CAPE READINGS ARE 2000-2200 J/KG...WITH                
NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO.  1KM VIS/IR              
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND QUICK LOOK OUT THE WINDOW...REVEALED LITTLE             
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...YET.  JUST WAITING             
FOR MID-LEVEL ENERGY.  18Z/02 RUC SHOWING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
MOVING THROUGH CWA 22Z/02-03Z/03. IN RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL SURFACE               
CONVERGENCE SHOULD TIGHTEN UP...IN RESPONSE THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY...             
AND HELP INITIATE TSRA.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST                    
SUPERCELL THREAT IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CO...WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS             
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED-V TYPE STRUCTURE ALONG I-25 WITH STRONG            
TO DAMAGING WINDS A THREAT MAINLY THIS EVENING.  SEE SPC DAY 1                  
OUTLOOK.  AFTER SUNSET...PRETTY SURE THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED                    
PRECIPITATION IS SLIME AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HEAD NORTHWARD TOWARDS            
WY.  ANY LEFT-OVER ORGANIZED TSRA WILL BE AROUND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.            
LOOKING FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN MIN TEMPERATURES FROM LAST NIGHT...                
SO CURRENT ZFP LOOKS GOOD.                                                      
THURSDAY: ATYPICAL EARLY JUNE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS            
CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES WITH LARGE CLOSED LOW IN CENTRAL CA AND SHOULD             
DROP IN SOUTHERN CA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL                
CONTINUE ACROSS CWA ON THURSDAY...PER MODEL TIME SECTIONS.  LITTLE              
IN THE WAY OF WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.  HAVE THE             
STANDARD PROBLEM OF KEEPING ZFP FROM YO-YOING FORECAST POPS.  THE               
QUALITY OF THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS DEFINITIELY IN QUESTION FOR                 
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS. AVN HAS A MEAN RH OF 20-30% FOR            
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL TSRA IN              
THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS.  FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON               
PULLING POPS IN THE PLAINS/VALLEYS AND WILL DO SO.  WITH LITTLE IN              
THE WAY OF AIR MASS CHANGE...PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS LOOKS TO BE THE               
WAY TO GO.  CURRENT ZFP HAS THIS UNDER CONTROL.                                 
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF                      
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLING OUT.  NGM IS                    
USUALLY THE FASTEST...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS A ETA/AVN SOLUTION.                  
AS FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER IS A CONCERN...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW               
WILL PERSIST ACROSS CWA WITH RELATIVELY DEEP DRY AIR...MEAN RH 25-              
35%. ONCE AGAIN...STRUGGLING WITH THE FLIP-FLOP OF POP ISSUE.  THERE            
SHOULD BE A SMALL THREAT FOR THURSDAY EVENING SHRA/TSRA IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS...IF THEY FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...WILL                  
REMOVE POPS IN PLAINS/VALLEYS FOR FRIDAY.  WILL CONTINUE WITH                   
PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES.                                                    
EXTENDED: AVN HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE OLD MRF ON SPATIAL AND               
TEMPORAL ISSUES OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CWA ON             
SATURDAY.  COULD GET REAL INTERESTING IN CO ON SATURDAY.  WILL PLAN             
TO MAINTAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY.  AS LOW LIFTS TO                
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...NEXT LOW TO DROP IN THE PACIFIC                   
NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY.  AT THE MOMENT...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP                   
MONDAY DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL READINGS.                       
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 020951  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1030 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
NGM LI/CAPE VALUES PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT...BUT BUFKIT MODEL                      
SOUNDING DATA FROM THE 00Z ETA SHOWS LI/S DOWN TO -1 TO -2 RANGE                
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES RISING ABOVE 1000. NEWER 03Z ETA AND 12Z              
RUC RUNS ARE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WITH LI/S OF -2 TO -3 ACROSS THE               
BIG BEND AND CAPES OVER 1000 ACROSS PANHANDLE AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL             
BIG BEND. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE CAP AROUND 700 MB EVIDENT ON              
12Z TLH SOUNDING. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK TODAY AND MAINLY N OF              
CWA. THE CAP STRNEGTH APPEARS STRONGEST ACROSS SW GA SI NIL POPS                
LOOK GOOD THERE. TEMPTED TO REMOVE POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES BUT WONT              
TRY TO FINESSE AT THIS TIME WITH AFORMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND SEA              
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BEING A FACTOR AS WELL. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE             
POPS IN ALL ZONES BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE                
ACROSS COASTAL AND WESTERN BIG BEND.                                            
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO BRING WINDS                  
AROUND TO MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SEA BREEZE.                                       
MAW                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 021432  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
957 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
DISC...ATMOS BCMG MOR UNSTABLE ATTM...AS MOR BINOVC THS MRNG &                  
TEMPS/TDS ON THE RISE.  HWVR...LACKING DYNAMICS ALFT (XCPT FOR WK PVA           
THRU 18Z AS PER 12Z RUC INDICATES)...AS MAIN SW WL RMN WL TO THE SW OF          
OUR FA THRU 00Z.  TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION MAY BE FOCUSED ON BNDRY OVR            
SWRN ME WHICH SEPARATES TDS IN THE MID/UPR 50S...FM TDS IN THE MID 60S.         
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION/PCPN WL BE STNRY FNT OVR NRNMST ME.  CAPES         
BASICALLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG W/ LIS ARND -1/-2.  PTBL WTR VALUES ARND          
1.3".                                                                           
BROKE OFF MEZ001/002 AS FNT HAS MADE IT THRU FVE.  KEPT THEM W/ MOR             
CLDS.  OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/CLD FCST.                         
.GYX...NONE.                                                                    
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE NWS GRAY WEBSITE:                         
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/GYX                                                  
JC                                                                              
 me                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
910 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
ERLR THIS EVNG ONE STRONG CELL WARNED ON MOVED FROM CNTRL BERKELEY CTY          
WV ACRS SRN WASH CTY MD BTWN HAGERSTOWN AND BOONESBORO THEN NEAR                
THURMONT MD INTO NW CARROLL CTY BEFORE SPINNING OFF ANOTHER CELL ON THE         
ITS SRN XTRM AND MOVING INTO CNTRL CARROLL AND BALTIMORE CTY'S.                 
MEANWHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SMALL CELLS HAS DVLPD VCNTY OF THE E               
PORTION OF THE ERN PNHNDL OF WV. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO THE ENE           
BUT LTST MESO ANALYSIS WUD SUGGEST THESE ARE NOT ENTERING A VERY FAVORBL        
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DVLPMNT. ELSW ACRS THE CWA THE MESOS SUGGEST          
CONTINUED STABILIZATION.                                                        
LTST RUC FCST WEAK CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO A BWI-NYG LINE BY ARND 09Z.              
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF CONV ACTVTY IS DVLPG OVR N-CNTRL WV ATTM WHICH MAY         
MOVE ACRS THE NRN ZNS OF THE CWA LATER TNGT SO WILL KEEP A 30 POP THERE.        
ELSW RUC UPR SUPPORT FCST AND MESOS WUD SUGGEST LTL IF ANY ACTVY OVRNGT         
ACRS THE SRN ZNS. OTW ERLR FCST APPEARS ON TARGET.                              
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.                                                      
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
PAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 021830  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
345 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
19Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED LAN...JXN...AND              
OUR CWA. TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR DEWPTS...               
NEAR 50 DEG F. VIS SATL LOOP SHOWS RAPID CLEARING OVR WI AND ERN IA.            
WRAP-AROUND -SHRA MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS N OF CWA...WITH A FEW                
NOTED OVER KENT...IONIA...BARRY COUNTIES. THESE WILL BE E OF CWA BY             
FCST TIME.                                                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THRU 48 HRS. ETA AND RUC (18Z RUN) HAVE             
A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE FIELDS AND THUS FOLLOWED              
FOR TIMING OF CLEARING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO ERODE ALONG LAKE SHORE             
COUNTIES 00-03Z TIME FRAME...AND 03-09Z TIME FRAME INLAND AREAS.                
THURS FEATURES A SUNNY FCST. FCST SOUNDINGS AND INSTABILITY CU                  
SCHEME SHOW LITTLE IF ANY CU DEVELOPMENT (WITH CAPPING INVERSION                
AROUND 5K FT) AND VRY DRY MID AND HIGH LAYERS.                                  
S/WAVE EJECTS OUT OF WRN U.S. TROF THURS AND RIDES NE OVR BUILDING              
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. MODELS SHOW INCREASE IN H4 LAYER MOISTURE             
AFT 00Z SAT ACROSS WRN LWR MI. BY 12Z...MODELS SHOW PCPN AS CLOSE AS            
WRN WI AND IL. WITH VRY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND FCST WEAKENING OF THIS             
WAVE AS IT APPROACHES LWR MI FRI...WILL LEAVE PCPN OUT OF FCST. BUT             
WITH SIG MID-HIGH LVL MOISTURE MOVG ACROSS CWA...PARTLY SUNNY FCST              
NEEDED.                                                                         
FWC/FAN TEMPS WITHIN 1-2 DEG OF EACH OTHER...FCST REFLECTS THIS.                
FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...OPTED TO LEAVE CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA FOR                
LATE SAT AND SUN. RETURN SRLY WARM AND HUMID FLOW OVR WEEKEND WILL              
SUPPLY THE MOISTURE AND IMPULSES MOVG OUT OF WRN U.S. TROF MAY                  
GENERATE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVR NRN PLAINS AND UPPR MS VALLEY.                
REMNANTS OF SUCH COULD BRING DECAYING SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY TO WRN             
LWR MICH LATE SAT AND SUN. BY MONDAY...RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND                    
RETROGRADES. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY...BUT BUILDING HEAT MAY BRING                
TEMPS CLOSE TO 90 DEG BY TUE OR WED OF NEXT WEEK.                               
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
GREENE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 021913  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1108 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
WILL UPDATE FCST TO LOWER TEMPS MOST AREAS... TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES             
FOR SWRN CWA... AND TO END -SHRA AND TSRA ERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
14Z MSAS ANALYSIS PLACED SFC LOW CENTER BETWEEN CAD AND HTL WITH                
COLD FRONT SSW THROUGH GRR...JUST W OF AZO...TO JUST E OF SBN.                  
DEWPTS STARTING TO FALL W OF HWY 131 AND W/NW FLOW OVR STILL COOL               
LAKE MICH STARTING TO DROP TEMPS INTO 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.                 
SATL LOOPS AND 12Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPR LVL LOW JUST MOVG ONSHORE            
ACROSS W CNTRL LWR MI ATTM...IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. WRAP AROUND            
MOISTURE JUST N/W OF UPPR LOW WILL CLIP NRN 1/3 OF CWA THIS                     
AFTN...THUS LEFT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS. TIMED ENDING THE             
SHOWERS MID/LATE AFTN. FOR SW CWA...LOWERED POPS TO 30 PCT FOR EARLY            
AFTN AND FOR SE CWA...LEFT SCATTERED WORDING ENDING LATE AFTERNOON.             
FRONTAL MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND WILL NOT LIKELY CLEAR EXTRM SE                
(KJXN AREA) UNTIL AROUND 20Z. LEFT MENTION OF THUNDER SE. LTG DATA              
HAS SHOWN SOME MINIMAL ACTIVITY WITH CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT            
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
TEMPS LOWERED AS COOLER/DRIER AIR IS FILTERING IN A BIT FASTER THAN             
PREVIOUSLY FCST. LIMITED SS THIS AFTN WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO                  
CURRENT VALUES. W/NW FLOW OVR LAKE WILL AFFECT TEMPS WRN CWA AS WELL.           
SVR THREAT IS MINIMAL OUR CWA THIS AFTN AS LITTLE COLD AIR ALOFT                
ASSOC WITH UPPR LOW. LIMITED SS AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AND FROPA PRIOR              
TO 20Z ALL WORKING AGAINST ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.                     
FCST UPDATE OUT BY 11:15 AM EST.                                                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
GREENE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 021500  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1055 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
QUICK UPDATE PREVIOUSLY SENT OUT TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING MENTION OF PATCHY      
FOG. SFC LOW IS NOW INTO NW LOWER MI WITH SHOWERS WRAPPING UP AND               
AROUND THE LOW EXTENDING FROM SE LOWER MI THROUGH NRN LOWER MI BACK             
INTO NRN LAKE MI. MOST OF THE WELL ORGANIZED TSRA HAS DIMINISHED                
FROM W TO E AND HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. LATEST RUC IS                
RIGHT ON TARGET WITH SHOWING 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TAKING             
THE SAME ROUTE...AND CONTINUING TO MOVE E AWAY FROM LOWER MI                    
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LOW AND VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH                 
LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL QUICKLY DIMINISHING DPVA FROM W            
TO E ACROSS NRN LOWER MI.                                                       
LATEST 1.1 RES BASE REF FROM GRR INDICATES ADDITIONAL CONVECTION                
DEVELOPING IN AREAS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI THAT HAVE RECEIVED SOME                 
SOLAR HEATING THIS MORNING PER LATEST VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND              
ARE IN A THETA E RIDGE. RUC SUGGESTS THE THETA E RIDGE WILL ACTUALLY            
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER MI S OF             
A LINE FROM APN TO TVC IN THE RIDGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...IN            
THESE AREAS WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS AND MENTION OF THUNDER               
THIS AFTERNOON. N OF THAT LINE...WILL EXTEND PERIODS OF SHRA INTO               
THE AFTERNOON AS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW IS SLOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. EXPECT RATHER LARGE AREA OF WRAP-AROUND SHRA            
OVER NRN LAKE MI WILL SWEEP ACROSS AREA N OF TVC TO APN DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL KEEP PERIODS OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST               
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD FOR FORECASTED HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY             
ACROSS ERN UPR MI AND FAR NRN LOWER IN LIGHT OF CURRENT CONDITIONS              
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE SFC LOW. WIND FORECAST WILL             
ALSO HAVE TO BE FRESHENED.                                                      
TO USERS OF KAPX WSR-88D DATA...                                                
THE GAYLORD RADAR WILL REMAIN DOWN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WE WILL             
KEEP YOU POSTED OF THE PROGRESS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE                   
OUR BACKUPS RADARS: KMQT...KGRB...KDTX...KGRR. PLEASE DO THE SAME.              
WE ARE SORRY THIS INCONVENIENCE. PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL IF YOU          
HAVE QUESTIONS.                                                                 
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 021307  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
CONCERNS TODAY ARE PRECIP OVR SE CWA...THEN CLEARING AND MAX TEMPS.             
SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT 500MB DOMINATING MUCH OF CONUS WITH UPR LOW              
DIGS OVR PACIFIC NW AND 500MB CONFLUENCE IN E CANADA OVR SFC HIGH               
PRS.                                                                            
STRONG SHORTWAVE ANALYZED BY 00Z ETA OVR E IOWA...RESPONSIBLE FOR               
SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY SPREADING NE ACROSS S LK MICHIGAN INTO              
LOWER MI. BOTH NGM/ETA CONSISTENT IN MOVING SHORTWAVE NE IN SE LOWER            
MI BY 21Z. STRONGEST LIFT AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE                
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY S OF CWA PER 850-500MB QVECTOR FIELD AND                     
GUIDANCE. EXCEPTION IS MENOMINEE/DELTA/S SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...                
WITH KGRB 88D REFLECTIVITY DATA DEPICTING SHIELD OF RAIN SPREADING              
RAPIDLY NE AT 06Z...AND 03Z RUC/18Z MESOETA SUPPORTING IDEA OF THIS             
CONVECTION CLIPPING THIS PORTION OF CWA BETWEEN 09-18Z AS 1004MB SFC            
LOW TRACKS NE TO BIG RAPIDS/CADILLAC IN LOWER MI. WILL LEAVE THUNDER            
OUT AS BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SE OF CWA PER 03Z RUC SHOWALTER                 
INDICES.                                                                        
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXTEND WEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT 06Z. PER ETA            
RH CROSS SECTION AND 850-700MB QVECTOR DIV AFT 18Z...EXPECT                     
GRADUALLY CLEARING LATE TODAY FROM W TO E. AS UPPER LOW OVR W COAST             
DIGS S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPR LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVR HIGH                
PLAINS WITH SFC HIGH PRS RIDGE ENTRENCHED FM HUDSONS BAY S THROUGH              
MISSISSIPPI RVR VALLEY. BY 00Z FRI UPR RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES W                  
CWA...WITH NGM BEING SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH FEATURE THAN                
ETA.                                                                            
IN RESPONSE TO LEE SIDE CYCLOGENSIS OVR HIGH PLAINS IMPRESSIVE                  
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OF GULF OVR PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 00Z AVNS        
310K SFC DEPICTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH STRONG WAA PATTERN SPREADING            
N ACROSS CWA ON FRIDAY. CONSEQUENTLY WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS FRI WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY MORE                          
UNSTABLE...HIGHER THETA E AIR ADVECTING INTO CWA FROM SW. MRF                   
SUGGESTS WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW             
MOVES E ACROSS S CANADA TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z MONDAY. BEST CHANCE                 
OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.                      
PRS/THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE FRONT MAY STALL AND WEAKEN VICINITY OF            
S CWA ON SUNDAY WITH UPR FLOW BECOMING PARALLEL TO FRONT...SO WILL              
RETAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS.                                                       
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY TODAY...DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING OF CLEARING.               
BASED ON MQT LAMP GUIDANCE WILL UNDERCUT FWC BY A FEW DEGREES AND               
ASSUME CLEARING REACHES MQT THIS EVENING. WARMEST OVR SW CWA PARTIAL            
WHERE CLEARING ARRIVES AROUND 18Z.                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 020820  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT CHANHASSEN THIS EVENING SHOWS A STABLE AND            
DRY AIR MASS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE DECREASED IN HALF FROM 12            
HOURS AGO. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD TRACES OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA            
DISSIPATING AND RUC HINTS THAT A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN                 
SAFELY EAST OF US THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANTICIPATE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH            
THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECAST SCENARIO LOOKS HARD TO IMPROVE              
ON.                                                                             
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 WH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 022037  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
915 AM CDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTENT OF CLEARING. NO KMPX SOUNDING BUT KINL         
SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET. 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN                    
INITIALIZED TOO DRY FOR MPX. LAPS SOUNDING SEEMS TO HAVE TOO DEEP A             
MOIST LAYER WHEN COMPARED TO PIREPS...SO SOME WHERE BETWEEN. THINK              
CLEARING WILL WORK EAST DURING DAY BUT MAYBE NOT AS FAST AS RUC LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST IN THE EAST. THERE IS CONTINUING LOW LEVEL         
DIV FORECAST THOUGH. CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS SEEM OK WITH SOME               
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                                              
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 020911  mn                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
915 PM CDT WED JUN 02 1999                                                      
ON SATELLITE THE REGION CONTINUES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH RIDGE             
AXIS TO THE WEST. THE ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED FOR NOW...BUT              
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE RUC                
MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT             
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. SO            
WITH THIS IN MIND KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT             
AND LEFT TEMPS ALONE.                                                           
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
17                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 022044  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
830 PM MDT WED JUN 3 1999                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW OVER ORFE/CA BORDER SAGGING             
SOUTH WITH VORT LOBES EJECTING FROM IT.  LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES           
SURFACE LOW OVER BILLINGS WITH WARM FRONT STRETCHING ESE ALONG THE MT/WY        
BORDER...WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP.  SEVERAL SURFACE            
TROFS ALSO EMINATE FROM THE LOW.                                                
00Z RUC INDICATES VORT LOBE SWINGING NORTH TO THE MT/WY BORDER BY EARLY         
MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS          
SHOULD DECREASE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING...BUT         
WITH ENOUGH DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTH WOULD          
NOT BE SURPRISED TO STILL HAVE SCATTERED THUNDER OVERNIGHT.                     
WILL DECREASE POPS TO SCATTERED ALL AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND REMOVE MENTION        
OF SEVERE FROM THE ZONES.  STROBIN                                              
BIL EB 052/073 050/076 053 634433                                               
LVM .. 049/068 048/070 ... 634644                                               
HDN .. 050/075 049/076 ... 634433                                               
MLS .. 058/078 054/080 ... 634432                                               
4BQ .. 057/078 055/079 ... 634332                                               
BHK .. 051/076 051/078 ... 634432                                               
SHR EB 049/073 047/079 050 634322                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 030235  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
903 AM MDT WED JUN 02 1999                                                      
VERY LITTLE TO ARGUE WITH ON CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  A BIT OF                
TWEAKING...BUT THAT IS ABOUT ALL.                                               
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW MOIST FLOW TO BE ABOUT DUE NORTH FROM THE GREAT         
BASIN WITH EVEN A SLIGHT NORTHWEST BIAS TO IT.  FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM           
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN ZONES OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.            
UPPER AIR DIFFLUENT FLOW ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.                                    
HOWEVER...AM LOOKING AT A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS         
POSSIBLY BEING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE 12Z RAOB        
SOUNDINGS DID NOT INDICATE CAPPING FOR HINDERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM             
FORMING AND SOUNDING MODIFICATION SHOWS CAPES TO BE RATHER HIGH IN THAT         
AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERYWHERE IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.        
FOR THE NOW...THE GOING POPS LOOK GOOD.                                         
UNFORTUNATELY...HAD NO RUC RUN FOR 12Z TO CONSULT.  CHB                         
BIL EE 081/054 070/052 077 52244                                                
LVM .. 075/051 069/... ... 52444                                                
HDN .. 082/053 071/... ... 52244                                                
MLS .. 085/059 076/056 ... 52244                                                
4BQ .. 085/061 077/... ... 52244                                                
BHK .. 085/058 078/... ... 52244                                                
SHR EE 078/050 066/048 074 52444                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 020908  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
940 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
3RD DRIEST MAY ON RECORD AT BGM AND ONLY 0.81 MONTHLY TOTAL AT SYR (6TH         
DRIEST MAY) AND SIG RAIN CONTINUES TO ELUDE MUCH OF CNTRL NY AND NE PA.         
WIND SHIFT LINE/FRONT PUSHING ACRS CNTRL NYS ATTM. LINE OF SHRA                 
ENTERING THE WRN CWA ASSCD WITH THIS BNDRY. UPR VORT MAX IS SHEARING            
OUT TO THE NE AND WE'VE LOST THE DAYTIME HEATING. RUC SNDGS SHOW                
STABLIZATION OCCURING AND LTG DATA INDICATES STRIKES CONFINED TO EASTERN        
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH I CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSTM                  
OVERNIGHT..TRENDS INDICATE THE BEST POTNL IS OVER. AFTN PCKG MENTIONED          
ONLY EVNG TSTMS AND THIS LOOKS GOOD SO WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND           
JUST GO WITH -SHRA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PD. HOWEVER WILL WORD PCPN AS SCT          
AND DROP POPS INTO THE CHC CAT. TMRW'S FCST MAXES MAY BE A TAD ON THE           
HIGH SIDE BUT MIDSHIFT CAN MAKE ANY TWEEKS TO LATER PDS IF NEEDED. LOOKS        
LIKE A FEW VERY NICE DAYS TO FOLLOW BUT WE REALLY COULD USE THE RAIN.           
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BRADY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KOKX 030132  ny                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1045 AM TUE JUN 1 1999                                                          
.DISC...AMS HS CHANGED LTL SINCE YSTDY. BERMUDA HI STL IN PLC.                  
CLDFNT HAS MVED ABT 200 MILES S...AND NOW LNS UP NR KCAR/KYUL/KMGG              
LN. ATTM KENX WSR-88D SHWS LTL ACTVTY AS AREA IS NICELY CAPPED BY NVA           
OVR RGN. LTST RUC CARRIES A SFC WV FM MI 2 SRN ONTARIO BY THIS EVE.             
CLDFNT ITSFL MVS VRY LTL DRG THIS TIME. HOWEVER SFC CAPES JMP                   
MARKEDLY (~1200 J/KG KPOU ~1500 J/KG KALB AND EVN A BIT MORE N). NXT            
SHT WV ALFT WL HELP DESTABILIZE ATMOS...ESP N AND W OF KALB.                    
HV MADE A FEW CHANGES 2 PREVIOUS PACKAGE REGARDG THIS PM. HV ADD A              
BIT MORE SUN...RAISED TEMPS A CAT AND SO WITH THE POPS. (XCPT KPT               
THEM AT 30 SERN ZN DUE TO SLITELY LOER CAPES AND FCT THAT FCRG                  
MECHANISM). BRN > 50 SO WE ARE LKG AT NON SUPER CELLS. HELICITY                 
HEALTHY AT 100 (M/S2) SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A SQL LN CLD FM..BUT           
MORE LIKELY ANY SVR WLD BE FM PULSE TYPE STMS. FA NOT OUTLKD FOR SVR            
AND TEND 2 AGREE THAT ANY SVR WX SHLD BE ISLD. BIGGEST PRBLM WITH ANY           
TSRA THIS PM WLD BE HVR RAINERS (PW > 1.5 INCHES) SO HVY DOWNPOUR               
POSS CONTINUED. WBZ WITHIN HAIL THRESHOLD OF 10.5 KFT...BUT NOT                 
ENOUGH OF A THREAT 2 ADD 2 PCKGE ATTM.                                          
NO MET CHANGES 2 LTR PDS. CONVC POT INCREASES TON AND ERLY TOM AS               
CLFNT APPRCHES FA.                                                              
WRKZFP AVBL. ZONES GONE BFR 11 AM. BYE!                                         
.ALB...NONE.                                                                    
HWJIV                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KBUF 021413  ny                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
900 PM CDT WED JUN 02 1999                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TEMPS AND TSRA/SHRA THREAT.              
CONVECTION TRYING TO FIRE IE. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED TOPS AHEAD OF WARM FRONT        
FROM SE MT ALONG WESTERN DAKOTAS BORDER TO CENTRAL SD VIA IR LOOP               
ALTHOUGH NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ATTM. MAIN ACTION ATTM ALONG HIGH PLAINS.           
STILL FEEL FAVORED AREA FOR TSRA TONIGHT TO THE WEST OF OUR FA AHEAD OF         
SFC BOUNDARY IN ZONE OF STRONGEST H8 WAA...BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST                 
FLUX...MAIN H8 THETA-E RIDGE...DEVELOPING 30-40 KT LLJET...GREATER              
INSTABILITY AND POOLING 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. 00Z        
BIS SOUNDING FROM SHARP INDICATED LI OF -8 AND CAPE NEARLY 2500 J/KG.           
SOME CONCERNS WITH WK W-E BOUNDARY OVR SE ND FROM 00Z SFC ANALYSIS WHICH        
COINCIDES WITH H8 THETA-E LOBE FROM RUC. SOME ACCAS NOTED TO THE SOUTH          
OF THE STATION. WITH THESE FEATURES UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN         
DRY FCST BUT WILL MONITOR. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS OVR EXTREME                
WESTERN FA WHICH BECOMES ON BACK SIDE OF RIDGE LATE AND CLOSER TO ABOVE         
MENTIONED FEATURES. CURRENT TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK BUT WILL TAKE A LAST            
LOOK BEFORE MAKING ANY MINOR CHANGES IF NEEDED.                                 
.FGF...NONE                                                                     
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 021959  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
945 AM EDT JUN 2 1999                                                           
KILN RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM             
CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY.  THIS LINE WILL                  
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...STABILIZING THE AIRMASS IN ITS              
WAKE.  HOWEVER...THIS STABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.                    
CURRENT SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  MODIFIED             
ILN SOUNDING YIELDS AROUND 1600 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH                  
EXPECTED HIGHS AROUND 80.  LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT                
ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER.  PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THE RUC             
MOVE THIS COLD FRONT TO THE INDIANA/OHIO BORDER BY 18Z (2 PM) AND               
THEN INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT IS ALSO                   
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL S/W LOCATED ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  THE              
FRONT ALONG WITH THE UPR LEVEL S/W WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT              
TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.              
THE WET BULB ZERO ON ILN SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS NEAR 11K.  THIS              
IS ON THE WARM SIDE.  MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WORKING INTO            
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR             
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  THUS...THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER                 
TODAY (IF IT MATERIALIZES) APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.  CURRENT               
THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM                  
ACROSS THE WRN CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN THEY WILL BECOME MORE             
CONSOLIDATED ACROSS THE ERN CWFA BY LATE AFTERNOON.                             
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TONIGHT...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE            
REGION...BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                          
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
HICKMAN                                                                         
 oh                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
300 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT - EFFECTIVE 9 AM EDT JUNE 15 1999...              
THE STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                 
FORECAST OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY...NEW JERSEY WILL BECOME AN AREA                 
FORECAST DISCUSSION...WITH A NEW WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION              
(WMO) HEADER AND NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIER.           
PLEASE TAKE THE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR CONTINUED RECEIPT OF           
THIS PRODUCT.                                                                   
            WMO HEADER     FXUS71 KPHI     FXUS61 KPHI                          
            NWWS ID        PHLSFDPHL       PHLAFDPHI                            
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT                    
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE GARY SZATKOWSKI AT 609-261-6600.                        
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
DISC: LARGE SFC HI OVR SE W/B DIFLECTING APPROACHING LO PRES NNE INTO           
EASTERN CANADA. SFC LO SPINNING THRU MI ATTM WITH SVRL CONVECTIVE               
BANDS E INTO OHIO/PENNA AS SW MOVES ENE THIS EVENING. SOME TSTMS                
WILL HOLD TOGETHER MOVING INTO UNSTABLE AIR E OF APPALACHIANS. W/B              
WATCHING LINE OF TSTMS FOR ANY SUSPECT CELLS BUT NONE ARE LOOKING               
TOO OMINOUS AT THIS TIME. SOME HVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER WRN HALF OF            
PA AND EXPECT THAT WE MAY GET INTO A FEW DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING ESP             
OVER THE NRN PART OF CFA. SPC RUC2 SHOWS MAX ACROSS PA BORDER /.76/             
AND WITH THE FRONT FIRST HALF OF THU. WINDS LIKELY TO GUSTS ON THE              
ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KTS THIS EVENING WITH ANY TSTMS. 80H JET NICELY               
PACKED E OF LO WITH SPEEDS OF 35-50KT.                                          
WE GET THRU THIS PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN TONIGHT AND ANOTHER                 
CHANCE WITH CFNT ON THU. MOST OF ACTIVITY ON THU WITH THE FRONT AND             
MAY BE THRU BY NOONTIME EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE SEXNS. A                      
REFRESHING CHANGE...NOT THAT ITS BEEN THAT BAD...ON TAP THU NIGHT               
INTO FRI.                                                                       
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
SEE YA...                                                                       
EBERWINE (DIX 88D OTS)                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCTP 021857  pa                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1035 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT - EFFECTIVE 9 AM EDT JUNE 15 1999...              
THE STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                 
FORECAST OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY...NEW JERSEY WILL BECOME AN AREA                 
FORECAST DISCUSSION...WITH A NEW WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION              
(WMO) HEADER AND NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIER.           
PLEASE TAKE THE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR CONTINUED RECEIPT OF           
THIS PRODUCT.                                                                   
            WMO HEADER     FXUS71 KPHI     FXUS61 KPHI                          
            NWWS ID        PHLSFDPHL       PHLAFDPHI                            
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT                    
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE GARY SZATKOWSKI AT 609-261-6600.                        
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
NOT GOING TO MAKE TOO MANY ADJ IF ANY. CWA BRIGHTENING UP  AND TEMPS            
W/B REACHING TOWARD FCST HIGHS FROM EARLIER PCKG. SPEED MAX OF 50KT             
AND HIGH PW'S TO REMAIN W OF FA THIS AFTERNOON. SPC'S RUC2 MODEL                
UPDATE A NICE DEPICTION OF CURRENT STATE OF ATMOS AND FOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON MOST OF CWF WILL BE PRECIP FREE. IMPRES VORT MAX OVER LWR             
MI W/B FIRING MECH LATER ON TODAY.                                              
OTHERWISE...SEE YA THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
EBERWINE                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KPBZ 021402  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1153 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
QUICK UPDATE PLANNED TO LOWER POPS IN NC MTNS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA               
AND WESTERN MOST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND TO ADD SOME QUALIFIER WORDING             
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO WANE IN                  
PREDAWN. ALTHO 00Z RUC DOES SUPPORT LEAVING SOME LOW POPS IN                    
OVERNIGHT...IT IS ALSO SUGGSTNG BEST MOISTR CONVERGENCE TO EAST OF              
OUR CWFA LATE TONIGHT. ALSO PLAN TO PUNCH UP FOG WORDING A BIT; WITH            
SOME AREAS RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE              
FOG NOW APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY MTN ZONES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 030155  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
955 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS CWFA...AHEAD OF               
WELL DEFINED VORTICITY CENTER IN GEORGIA AND SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BNDRY            
COMBO UPSTREAM IN TENNESSEE. INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL...BUT                  
CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM MAIN PRECIP AREA IS DEVELOPING             
A NEW LINE OF STORMS NEAR GSP EXTENDING NOW INTO NORTH CAROLINA.                
WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ZONES AND MAY FOR               
OVRNGT...MOST OF PRECIP SHUD BE OUT OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT EXCEPT                  
EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS...AND MAY HAVE TO UPDATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT IF            
PRECIP DWINDLES UNEXPECTEDLY FAST. WITH JUICY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
SHORTWAVE/FRONT STILL TO MOVE INTO REGION PER 00Z RUC...WE COULD SEE            
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE. WILL TAKE POPS DOWN TO           
LOW CHC IN EXTREME WEST.                                                        
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 030102  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
900 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
SCATTERED PCPN OVER N CNTL GA EARLY THIS EVE SLOLY MOVG E. 12Z MODELS           
AS WELL AS LTST MESO ETA/RUC2/MAPS SHOW S/WV OVER NE GA SLIDING NE              
TNGT PASSING WELL N OF AREA. ONE AREA OF LIFT GOES N WITH THE S/WV...           
ANOTHER AREA SUSPICIOUSLY MOVES ACROSS SE GA. 00Z LAPS/MAPS ANAL                
SHOWING A POCKET OF HIER CAPE/THETA-E AND LWR LI OVER INLAND SE GA              
HOLDING TOGETHER. 00Z CHS SOUNDING NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL AS FAR AS              
MOISTURE AND STABILITY. FOR THE UPDATE...WL INSERT A SLGT CHC POP FOR           
WELL INLAND SE GA AND ALLENDALE CTY SC FOR SHRA. IF PCPN OVER CNTL GA           
HOLDS TOGETHER NEXT COUPLE OF HRS...CAN UPDATE AREAS FURTHER E FOR              
A 20 POP. OTHER THAN THAT...WINDS ALG THE CST STIRRING FAIRLY WELL              
THIS EVE. WL UP CSTL WINDS TO 10 MPH TNGT AND MAY TWEAK FCST LOWS               
UP A CAT IN A FEW SPOTS. OTHER THAN THAT...NO SIG CHGS.                         
CWF: EXPECTING OCNLY GUSTY CONDITIONS ALG THE BEACHES AGAIN TONIGHT             
ON THE COOLING LAND/ WARMER WATER INTERFACE. RUC INDICATES TIGHTER              
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE JUST N OF OUR S CAROLINA MFA AND WILL LIKELY               
CONTINUE WITH 15 KT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH FINAL DECISION MAY LEAD TO               
BECMG SW 15 TO 20 KT NRN WATERS ON UPDATE. GEORGIA WATERS FCST ON               
TARGET AND EXPECT FEW CHANGES.                                                  
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
RVT/TJR                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 030027  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
753 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO REMOVE WATCH WORDING FROM FIVE COUNTIES IN                
NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND BLEND THEM BACK              
IN WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY GROUPINGS TO THEIR IMMEDIATE EAST. 21Z RUC              
SUGSTS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWFA AHEAD OF               
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH CONVECTION ON NRN END OF CONVECTIVELY                 
INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES            
AS THE 8 PM HOUR APPROACHES. WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE ZONES            
WITH THIS UPDATE.                                                               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 021856  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
209 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
CONVECTIVLY INDUCED VORT FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS SPRUNG INTO            
LIFE AGAIN TDA WITH AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING AREA OF CONVECTION OVER               
NE AL. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER SCALE WEAK TROUGH.                  
SFC FRONT...SUCH AS IT IS...HAS NOT MADE A LOT OF SWRD PROGRESS                 
TDA. IN FACT...IT LOOKS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IT WILL BE                
VERY DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WHEN THE FRONT PASSES THE CWA. SFC DWPTS                
DO NOT TAKE A DIVE UNTIL TMRW AFTN.                                             
THE NGM AND AVN DID NOT INITIALIZE THE VORT AS WELL AS THE ETA. IN              
FACT...THE ETA SOLUTION OF SHEARING THE VORT ACROSS THE REGION                  
OVERNIGHT IS NOT A BAD ONE. THE RUC TAKES THE MCV SE ACROSS GA THIS             
EVENING...WHICH DOESN/T MAKE SENSE.                                             
WHILE SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON LEE TROUGH IN THE NC                     
FOOTHILLS...THE BULK IS STILL A WAYS TO THE WEST. I/M INCLINED TO               
BELIEVE THAT WITH THE WEAK SHEAR THE MCS WL FALL APART LATER IN                 
THE EVENING AND NOT GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE CWA...              
THOUGH I WL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE WRN COUNTIES.  ON THE PLUS                  
SIDE...NGM/ETA BOTH HAVE GOOD H8 CONVERGENCE OVER THE REGION BY 06Z             
AND DEEP MOISTURE. THE NGM GENERATES A LARGE SWATH OF PCPN ACROSS               
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND HAS FOR THE PAST COUPLE RUNS. STILL...AS WE             
HAVE HAD SUCH A TOUGH TIME GETTING PCPN LATELY...WL NOT HAVE MORE               
THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS ANYWHERE UNLESS THINGS CHANGE BEFORE ISSUANCE             
TIME.                                                                           
I REMOVED THE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM THE MTNS ON THU...OTHERWISE                  
W/FRONT-LEE TROUGH COMBO OVER ERN CWA...IDEA OF KEEPING CHANCE                  
POPS ERN MOST ZONES STILL A GOOD ONE.                                           
RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION THU NGHT AND FRI. WHILE ETA HAS A WEAK                 
MINOR WAVE APPROACHING FRI...SEE NO WAY THIS COULD INITIATE ANYTHING            
W/BNDRY LAYER DRYING AND NO CONVERGENCE. ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES FROM            
FWC TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                   
STILL PLAN ON KEEPING THE EXTENDED DRY WITH H5 RIDGE IS NO HURRY TO             
LEAVE THE SE.                                                                   
CAEWRKGSP OUT BY 230.                                                           
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
AVL 60/82/55/82 4100                                                            
CLT 64/85/62/85 3310                                                            
GSP 64/86/62/86 3210                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 021457  sc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
TSTMS MOVG ACRS AL INTO NW GA ATTM WHILE BAND OF MID CLDS DVLP ACRS             
CNTRL SC. 12Z RUC BRINGS H5 S/WV EWD AND WEAKENS IT SM. A LTL LOW LVL           
MSTR CONVGNC WORKS INTO WRN SXNS CAROLINS BY LATE AFTN FOR CONTD LOW CHC        
TSTMS. ATTM DO NOT EXPECT ANY SVR TSTMS WITH STRONGER STMS PRODUCING SM         
HAIL/G40KT. CLDS ACRS CNTRL SC MAY HOLD TEMPS DN A FEW DEGS BUT SHD SEE         
SM BRKS DURG THE AFTN. NO CHGS TO CUR FCST.                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
CDL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 021417  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
903 PM CDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS EVENING HAS LARGE COLD TROF ALG CA COAST...            
AND COUPLE OF STGR IMPULSES WRAPPING ARND.  12Z ETA/NGM ARE GOOD AT             
PLACEMENT OF VORT NORTH OF 4 CORNERS...AVN OFF TO N...BUT LIKE THE              
ETA SECONDARY PLACEMENT IN ERN NM...SETTING OFF LARGE MCS IN TX                 
PNHDL.  ETA OTHERWISE WAS ALSO PREFERRED...WITH SOME CONTRIBUTIONS              
TNGT ALLOWABLE FM RUC...ALTHOUGH 21Z RUC WAS LTL ON DRY SIDE AT LOW             
LEVELS AGAIN...ABOUT 2-4C TOO LOW AT 850 HPA. DILEMMA THIS EVENING              
IS DEALING WITH CONVECTIVE THREAT.                                              
INITATION AT THIS TIME IS OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAX ON             
NRN PERIPHERY OF LLJ...AT RUC ADVERTISED NR 40 KTS AT RWD.  OBSERVED            
NWRD MOVEMENT AGREES THUS FAR WELL WITH THE RUC 850-300 THICKNESS...            
WHICH WOULD TAKE ACTION INTO ND...THEN LEAK ESE LTR TNGT...REMAINING            
LARGELY TIED TO ENERGY SOURCE COURTESY OF LLJ INTO SCNTRL SD.                   
BEST CHC WOULD BE FOR ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO BYOE (BRING YOUR OWN                  
ENVIRONMENT)...BUT WOULD STILL TAKE QUITE A BEATING DOING SO. RUC               
SUGGESTS THAT AIRMASS AS HEADING EAST OVR CWA BY 09Z WILL BE VERY               
UNFAVORABLE BY THE TIME YOU REACH I-29...AND WIND FIELDS NOT THAT               
IMPRESSIVE AS WELL TO KEEP UP ORGANIZATION GAINED EARLIER. REMNANTS             
OF COMPLEX WOULD LKLY TAKE UNTIL MRNG HOURS TO ARRIVE IN THESE                  
AREAS...AND CRNT FCST HANDLES QUITE WELL.                                       
SFC WNDS ARE BACKING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO WRN             
PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS...TO N OF OK SFC WMFNT.  MOST LIKELY AREA TNGT            
TO REMAIN AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COUPLED WILL BE WRN CWA...SO IF DECIDE              
TO UPDATE...WL BUMP UP 5 MPH OR SO...AND BACK OFF TIMING AND                    
INCREASE CERTAINTY OF CONVECTION LTR TNGT.                                      
ACTUALLY...AM SOMEWHAT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTIVE THREAT THU               
EVNG ACRS WRN CWA AS WMFNT LIFTS NWRD INTO NEBRASKA...AND LLJ                   
REINVIGORATES.  BUT FOR NOW...WL LEAVE THAT UP TO MID FCSTR TO                  
SOLVE...AS BOUNDARIES WILL BE BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.                           
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 030153  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
946 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
...UPDATE FOR PRECIP MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...                                  
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE              
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT THIS TIME.  STILL CONCERNED A LITTLE FOR              
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.  RUC SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE            
AREA BETWEEN 09-12Z...AND WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK            
SURFACE COLD FRONT...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRE                 
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND 20                 
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                    
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSTABLE...BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING                
TURNED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SHOULD NOT BECOME SEVERE.              
ANOTHER CONCERN IS WITH CLEARING SKIES...AND RECENT RAINS...FOG                 
POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE ZONES.                                   
THANKS...PDK                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 030124  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                      
APPEARS THAT ZONES HANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/S WEATHER SCENARIO RATHER              
WELL...SO NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED.                                           
09Z RUC INDICATES EARLY MORNING S/W IN NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH             
COOLER AIR ALOFT SUPPORTING ELEVATED CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS NOW GETTING INTO THE SOUTH PLATEAU AND VALLEY. ALSO...            
TO THE NORTH...NOCTURNAL MCS OVER KENTUCKY FALLING APART RATHER                 
RAPIDLY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS FORMED THIS MORNING ALONG MAIN OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY IN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE.                        
LATEST MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT H5 TROUGH AND S/W                 
SYSTEM UPSTREAM IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON            
CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT AND ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARIES. SOME AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITIES...               
WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LI/S UP TO -7.                    
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 021419  tn                                      

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
900 PM MDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL              
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY SOMEWHAT               
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOISTEN UP AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. SHOWERS WILL           
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT THE             
AREA THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM THE           
SOUTHWEST AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                      
DISCUSSION...COUPLE OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROLLING UP THE FRONT SIDE              
OF THE LOW.  ONE HAS CROSSED THE UINTAS AND IS NOW IS SOUTHWEST WY              
AND BEST DEPICTED BY RUC AT 500MB.  THE SECOND IS ACROSS EASTCENTRAL            
NV AND SOUTHWESTERN UT AND BEST DEPICTED BY RUC AT 300MB.                       
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT NEAR                     
SOUTHERN UT-NV WAVE.  AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH...WOULD              
EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVITY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THEN NORTHWEST UTAH               
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT...WITH RUC PROGGING 300MB WAVE AXIS PASSING                
GREAT SALT LAKE AT 09Z.  PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF IN THE NORTH                
AND WILL LET URBAN/SMALL STREAM ADVISORY EXPIRE.  CURRENT FORECASTS             
FOR TONIGHT LOOK OK AND NO AMENDMENTS PLANNED.                                  
SLC 8656 CDC 7466  BURCH                                                        
.SLC...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LOGAN RIVER UFN UTZ001-007.                        
       URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADV TIL 10PM UT/SL COUNTIES.                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KSLC 022201  ut                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
910 PM EDT WED JUN 2 1999                                                       
ERLR THIS EVNG ONE STRONG CELL WARNED ON MOVED FROM CNTRL BERKELEY CTY          
WV ACRS SRN WASH CTY MD BTWN HAGERSTOWN AND BOONESBORO THEN NEAR                
THURMONT MD INTO NW CARROLL CTY BEFORE SPINNING OFF ANOTHER CELL ON THE         
ITS SRN XTRM AND MOVING INTO CNTRL CARROLL AND BALTIMORE CTY'S.                 
MEANWHILE ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SMALL CELLS HAS DVLPD VCNTY OF THE E               
PORTION OF THE ERN PNHNDL OF WV. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO THE ENE           
BUT LTST MESO ANALYSIS WUD SUGGEST THESE ARE NOT ENTERING A VERY FAVORBL        
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DVLPMNT. ELSW ACRS THE CWA THE MESOS SUGGEST          
CONTINUED STABILIZATION.                                                        
LTST RUC FCST WEAK CDFNT TO ADVANCE TO A BWI-NYG LINE BY ARND 09Z.              
ANOTHER WEAK LINE OF CONV ACTVTY IS DVLPG OVR N-CNTRL WV ATTM WHICH MAY         
MOVE ACRS THE NRN ZNS OF THE CWA LATER TNGT SO WILL KEEP A 30 POP THERE.        
ELSW RUC UPR SUPPORT FCST AND MESOS WUD SUGGEST LTL IF ANY ACTVY OVRNGT         
ACRS THE SRN ZNS. OTW ERLR FCST APPEARS ON TARGET.                              
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.                                                      
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
PAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 021830  md                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1025 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK FLOW UP THROUGH 5KFT SHOWN BY THE CAPE               
915MHZ PROFILER WILL ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND            
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTH...LOWERING AS YOU             
GO NORTH. THIS MAKES SENSE AS 12Z RUC SHOWS HIGHEST MOISTURE ACROSS             
SOUTHERN THIRD OF FA...WHERE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AT               
THIS TIME...ALBIET MAINLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO                
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE..ESPECIALLY AS IT INTERACTS             
WITH LAKE BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOWS FROM OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS.                
MAY BUMP UP MAX TEMPS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS             
...ALREADY 84F HERE AT MLB. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.              
MARINE...POSITION OF RIDGE AXIS IS OVER NORTH FL AND DRIFTING SOUTH             
...THUS BUOY WINDS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE               
CURRENT CWF. SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO KICK WINDS UP TO ~10KT NEAR              
SHORE...SO WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE FLG-COF LEG. OTHERWISE...NO                
CHANGES.                                                                        
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
KELLY/CRISTALDI                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 031410  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1031 AM CDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
CHALLENGE FOR THIS UPDATE TO BE SW CWA PRECIP CHCS AND TEMPS CWA                
WIDE.                                                                           
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MID MISS                
VALLEY...NORTH THRU ERN IA AND CEN MN.  MEANWHILE...AT 850 MB...                
THERMAL RIDGE...AND THETA E RIDGE COULD BE FOUND OVER CEN AND ERN               
KS/NE.  BEST LOW LEVEL JET ALSO IN THOSE AREAS.  FINALLY...RAOBS AND            
PROFILERS SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROF ROTATING NORTHWARD THRU NE.  AT               
THE SFC...WARM FRONT FROM NE PAN THRU CEN KS TO SW MO AT 15Z.                   
MOISTURE AND WARM ADV OVER THIS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SET OFF SOME            
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA.  ORIGINAL BATCH OF PRECIP HAS MOVED THROUGH             
MO VALLEY IN WRN IA AND ERN NE.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY MUCH                  
DISSIPATED AS SHOWING ON 88D AND WARMING IR SAT LOOPS.  FARTHER                 
SOUTH...LIFT OVER WARM FRONT CONTINUES IN NE KS WITH AREAS JUST                 
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT GETTING GOOD HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE MORE                 
TSRA IN THESE AREAS.  GIVEN LATEST LAPS TRENDS FOR LI/CAPE/CIN/THETA            
E CONV IN FAR WRN IA...SW IA...NRN MO...AND POINTS SW...WOULD EXPECT            
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE.  12Z RUC ALSO BEARS THIS OUT WITH THETA E            
RIDGE AND CONV MOVING IN SW CWA AFTER 18Z.  IT EVEN BRINGS IN A                 
LITTLE PRECIP INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL.                                         
THUS...WILL CONTINUE WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA IN SW CWA FOR THE REST OF               
THE DAY.                                                                        
FOR TEMPS...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS CWA...EVEN THO ITS PRETTY              
THIN IN NE CWA.  LATEST VIS LOOPS WOULD POINT TO THICKER CLOUDS                 
MOVING OVER MOST OF CWA.  THUS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN             
A NOTCH OR TWO.                                                                 
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 030836  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
955 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                       
UPDATE TO TAKE OUT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. VIS SAT SHOWS LOW CLOUDS                 
SCATTERING OUT UNDER BRIGHT JUNE SUNSHINE. THINK WE WILL SEE A                  
SCATTERING OF CU INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC AND 03Z MESOETA SHOWING          
8H MOISTURE INCREASING THIS AFTN IN THE MTN ZONES SO MAY BE PARTLY              
SUNNY THERE. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL DATA AND UPDATE AGAIN IF NEED BE          
BY LATE MORNING.                                                                
.JKL...NONE                                                                     
WHP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 031345  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
TRANQUIL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS FA. HIGH TEMPS ARE THE ONLY CONCERN.               
VIS SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW NEARLY CLOUDLESS SKY ACROSS              
FA. SOME CI FROM CONVECTION IN PLAINS IS SPREADING E ACROSS MN                  
TOWARD UPPER LAKES REGION.                                                      
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W                
ONTARIO ACROSS W LK SUPERIOR...W UPPER MI INTO E WI. SFC HIGH WILL              
SLOWLY PROGRESS E ACROSS UPPER MI/LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN. ABUNDANT               
SUNSHINE AND VERY LIGHT WIND REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE               
WILL ALLOW LK BREEZES TO DOMINATE ACROSS FA THIS AFTN...AND THIS IS             
REFLECTED NICELY IN 12Z RUC LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.                              
USING 12Z GRB SOUNDING AND ASSUMING MIXING UP TO 800-825MB...HIGH               
TEMPS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S SHOULD BE REALIZED IN THE INTERIOR W AND             
CNTRL PORTIONS OF FA. SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR E              
FA BEST ON 12Z APX SOUNDING. THESE NUMBERS CORRESPOND WELL WITH                 
CURRENT FCST AND WITH 14Z LAMP GUIDANCE.                                        
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST ON UPDATE.                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 031434  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1035 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GOING ZONE FORECASTS             
THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS                 
QUICKLY MIXING OUT ON THEIR WESTERN EDGE WITH TEMPERATURES RISING               
AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SHOULD BE ABLE TO                 
REMOVE BECOMING WORDING FROM ZONES... AND GO WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY                
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON... BUT WILL WAIT A LITTLE WHILE TO GIVE              
THE CLOUD COVER IN THE GREATER LANSING AREA A CHANCE TO MIX OUT                 
MORE. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS AND CU SCHEME FROM THE 12Z RUC POINT               
TOWARD SCATTERED CU AT BEST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA COULD               
SEE SOME BKN CU... BUT DON/T FEEL THE POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT TO                
PRECLUDE A MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST. CIRRUS DEBRIS TO THE WEST WILL                
CONTINUE TO THIN AS IT DESCENDS THE RIDGE INTO THE AREA... SO IT                
WILL NOT POSE MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST                    
TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD... AND MATCH UP WELL WITH MODIFIED 12Z            
SOUNDINGS FROM APX AND DTX... AS WELL AS FORECAST 850MB TEMPERATURES            
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE RUC. HOWEVER... WILL BREAK OUT TWO                  
ADDITIONAL ZONE GROUPS TO BETTER REFINE THE EXPECTED NORTH-SOUTH                
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.                                                           
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1115 AM.                                                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
TRH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 031409  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1008 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
VERY AUTUMNAL FEEL OUT THERE THIS MRNG...AS LOW CLOUDS NOT GIVING UP            
EASILY IN LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW. SFC TROFFINESS IS COUNTERACTING                
DIURNAL EFFECTS TO SOME DEGREE...BUT JUNE SUNSHINE STARTING TO WIN              
OUT ALONG THE EDGES...ESP IN NW LWR MI. WL SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING               
TREND A BIT.                                                                    
ETA CONTINUES TO PORTRAY ENUF LOW LVL MOISTURE TO POP CU IN THE                 
PLACES THAT DO CLEAR OUT. THE ETA HAS RUN FAR TOO MOIST IN THE LOW              
LVLS...AND AM UNSURE IF RECENT CHANGES IN THE ETA HAVE CORRECTED                
THIS. HOWEVER...LATEST RUC SUPPORTS ETA IN KEEPING LOTS OF MOISTURE             
BLO 850 MB TDY. WL LEAVE IN PARTLY SUNNY FOR NOW...BUT MAY UPDATE TO            
MOSTLY SUNNY IF CU DO NOT DEVELOP IN PLACES LIKE ARB/ADG/TTF BY                 
MIDDAY.                                                                         
WITH CLOUDS AROUND LONGER...WL TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN. WL ADJUST WIND             
WORDING TO REFLECT MESOETA TREND OF NW WIND...BECOMG NORTH ALL BUT              
FAR SOUTH.                                                                      
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 030854  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1025 PM EDT WED JUN 02 1999                                                     
CURRENT APX 88D SHOWING AREA OF RAIN...THAT HAD AFFECTED NORTHERN LOWER         
AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HAS             
DIMINISHED GREATLY AND EXITED COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA. LATEST               
IR STLT LOOP AND AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA         
SHOWING GENERALLY SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS IN AN AREA OF DEVELOPING UPPER        
LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING. THIS AREA OF RIDGING AND DRYING IS FORECAST          
BY THE RUC TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION OVERNIGHT.                                                               
WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND THEREFORE CALMING WINDS          
AND CLEARING SKIES... WILL MENTION SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE          
RAINFALL AND COOLING TEMPS.                                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 030222  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
240 AM CDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH FORECAST                  
SYNOPSIS -- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN STRONG SOUTHERLY               
FLOW.  PROFILERS SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.               
MENAWHILE MAJOR CIRC REMAINS OFF THE CA COAST.  A VERY DISTINCT WAVE            
IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO W CENTRAL KANSAS.  IT IS VERY                  
EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  8Z ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE              
AXIS FROM CNTRL MN...THROUGH WRN IA A                                           
LOOKING AT THE 06Z RUC AS A SHORT TERM INDICATES CONTINUED VERY                 
RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION JUST ABOVE 850 MB.  WITH THIS AND                      
CONVERGENCE THERE IS A STRONG ARGUMENT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS IN N               
CENTRAL KANSAS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN                    
COVERAGE.                                                                       
FORECAST...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ALTHOUGH THE NGM SEEMED TO BE DOING             
BETTER PRIRO TO 06Z WITH MOST ACTIVITY TO THE S ACROSS SRN KANSAS               
AND OKLAHOMA...THE ETA IS LOOKING MORE RELIABLE.  THIS WILL MEAN ONE            
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY FROM THE SW.  THE            
BIE AREA SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH THAT TEMPS THERE ARE LIKELY TO REACH               
THE MID 80S.  WITH THE WAVE MOVING ALONG RATHER DISTINCTLY...SHOULD             
GET MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BUT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE                
PARTS OF SERN AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA THAT ARE ALREADY WET.                   
LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THERE IS SOME ARGUMENT TO AGREE WITH THE ETA              
AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
LOOKING AT TEMPS...TEND TO HOLD NRN CWA TO MID 70S UNDER CLOUDS...TO            
MID 80S IN BIE.  FOR TNT WITH INCREASING WINDS AGAIN AND MOISTURE               
ADVECTION MID 60S SEEMS LOGICAL.  FOR FRIDAY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE               
E.  FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON SHOWERS BUT WILL HOLD AROUND 80.                  
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
POWERS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 030654 AMD  ne                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
KBGM RADAR SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA PRECIP FREE ATTM. THERE ARE A FEW WEAK         
RETURNS OVER ONEIDA COUNTY...THE WYOMING VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. ANY            
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LGT SHOWERS REMAINING THIS AFT CAN BE COVERED BY          
NOWCASTS AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONES. 09 UTC RUC SHOWS LOW LVL            
MOISTURE HANGING ON THRU MUCH OF THE AFT. VIS SAT PICS SHOW QUITE A BIT         
OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO WILL GO WITH MOCLDY. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS DUE TO            
MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED AND SOME PLACES ACTUALLY DROPPING A DEGREE OR         
TWO OVER THE PAST HOUR. NO OTHER CHANGES.                                       
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
SMF                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KALY 031416    ny                                    

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1015 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
KENX WSR-88D STILL LIMITED TO CLEAR AIR MODE PENDING ARRIVAL OF                 
BACK-ORDERED PARTS.                                                             
.DISC...1ST CLDFNT NR A KAQW/KPOU LN ATTM. WND HAS SHFT 2 THE W                 
BEHIND IT...AND TDS ARE LOERING. HOWEVER STRGR SHT WV STL LURKS OVR             
SERN ONT AS WELL AS 2NDRY SFC TROUGH. THIS WV (AND BNDRY) ARE PROGGED           
2 SLD ACRS NRN NY BY ERLY PM. SAT PIX SHWS LOTS OF CLDS UPSTRM AND IT           
APPRS THAT MDLS HV MISSED THIS FEATURE. THEY HV SPRD FRM ABT ALB AND            
PTS N AND W. 270 WND MINIMIZES DWNSPG IN OUR AREA. ONCE THE WND TURNS           
320-340...THEN WE SHLD DWNSLP NICELY (DURG EVE). CLDS APPRNTLY THE              
RESULT OF PRTY GD LO LVL CAA WHICH IN TURN IS INCRG INV BTWN H8/H7              
HGHT. THIS SCENARIO WL TEND 2 STABILIZE THE ATMOS. LTST RUC DOES                
DEPICT THIS. WITH THE SHT WV MVG ACRS STL DO NOT FEEL COMPLETELY                
COMFORTABLE REMVG ALL MENTION OF PCPN. WL GO FOR THE 20 POP DEAL MST            
AREAS. DUE TO A MORE STABILIZED ATMOS...WL KP TSRA OUT XCPT FOR MID             
HUDSON VLY AND LITCHFIELD HILLS WHICH IRONICALLY ARE/WL B ENJOYING              
THE MST SUN. THE FNT HS NOT MVD THROUGH THERE YET. SO WL MENTION 20             
POP TSRA THERE.                                                                 
HV ADJSTD TMPS DWNRD DUE TO THE CLDS MOST PLCS. FEEL THAT TMPS WL NOT           
RISE MUCH (IF AT ALL) FM KALB ON N AND W. OTRWISE JST FINE TUNED THIS           
PM.                                                                             
NO MET CHANGES 2 LTR PDS. EVN IF WE GET ANY RAFL TDY...WL BE MINIMAL            
SO LKS AS IF WE ARE HEADED TWD DROUGHT SINCE NO MORE RA XCPTD THRU AT           
LST THE UPCOMING WKND.                                                          
WRKZFP AVBL. ZONES GONE BY 1030AM.                                              
.ALB...NONE.                                                                    
HWJIV                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KBUF 031403  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
944 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                       
DISC: CURRENTLY WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORTWAVE            
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO THE            
EAST.  THIS FEATURE MATCHES WELL WITH THE CONVECTION OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                                    
09Z RUCII DIVERGENCE OF Q AT 300-700 MB SHOWS THE LIFT MOVING TO THE            
ENE WITH TIME WITH SOUTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER A LESS               
FAVORABLE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH               
THE MORE FAVORABLE LIFT. THE 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS DIV Q AREA TO BE                
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN 09Z FORECAST BUT THE TREND OF THE ENE MOVEMENT             
OF LIFT IS STILL EVIDENT. ONLY CHANGES WILL BE TO SLIGHTLY TWEAK UP             
POPS OVER SOUTHERN CWA IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING CONVECTION.                       
CWF...12Z RUC SHOWS THE SW WIND OF 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON               
AND CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER.  NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.               
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
HAWKINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 030650  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 03 1999                                                     
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...                                                   
13Z SURFACE AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN            
MONTANA WITH ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TOWARDS NORTH                
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER. KMVX RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF NORTHWARD                
ADVANCING SHOWERS ALONG A ABERDEEN TO MINOT LINE WITH NO LIGHTNING              
STRIKES CURRENTLY NOTED...PER LDS.                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RUC CONFIRMED AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER BAND OCCURRING ALONG 5H SHEAR           
AXIS AND 85H THETA RIDGE. EXPECT PRECIPITATION THREAT TO CONTINUE               
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING            
ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND WEST OF FARGO TO DEVILS LAKE LINE.             
LATE MORNING UPDATED PLANNED WITH ONLY SOME COSMETIC CHANGES PLANNED AT         
THIS TIME.                                                                      
.FGF...NONE                                                                     
BERG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 030853  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
142 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                       
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVED RAPIDLY E OF AREA BY 03Z RUC. SERIES OF                 
SHORTWAVES TO CROSS AREA THIS PACKAGE. MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH              
AND TIMING. WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO EXIST OVER AREA TODAY LIMITING                
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEE OF MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW TO SUPPORT                
POPS MOUNTAINS. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT TIME OF MAX HEATING TO                   
SUPPORT POPS I-77 CORRIDOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT LESS. COLD FRONT              
TO SLOWLY CROSS AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE                
TO STALL FRONT AFTERWARD...AND DIFFER ON ORIENTATION. LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE TO PERSIST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT IN ETA...REPLACED BY HIGH               
LEVEL MOISTURE THEREAFTER. NGM MAINTAINS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                     
THROUGH 48 HOURS...HOWEVER ITS STALLED FRONT IS FARTHER S THAN                  
ETA AND DO NOT EXPECT A BELT OF LOW CEILINGS TO EXIST ALONG                     
S TIER FRI. EXPECT CLOUDS/POPS MOUNTAINS/I-77 TODAY...MOSTLY                    
SUNNY FOOTHILLS. PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. PARTLY SUNNY FRI S TIER                 
...MOSTLY SUNNY REST.                                                           
AVL 82/56/81 300                                                                
CLT 86/63/84 300                                                                
GSP 88/62/84 000                                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 030523 AMD  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
925 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                       
FRONT STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS.  BELIEVE            
IT EXTENDS OVER WESTERN NC...ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...OVER               
NORTHERN TN AND INTO SOUTHERN MO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOP            
ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING DISSIPATED IN THE MOUNTAINS.  STILL                
SHOWING AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN SOUTHERN VALLEY.  MODELS PUSHING FRONT            
SOUTH TODAY. 09Z RUC HAD ANOTHER WEAK 500MB TROF/VORTICITY MAX                  
PASSING OVER CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH           
WILL INCREASE OUR INSTABILITY.  MODIFYING BNA 12Z SOUNDING WITH                 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...GAVE             
CAPES OVER 2000.  WITH THE FRONT STILL IN AREA...RECOMMEND RAISING              
POPS OVER SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SMOKIES THIS AFTERNOON.                           
RDU...SUGGEST RAISING POPS TO 30 PERCENT.                                       
CRW...NO CHANGES NEEDED.                                                        
GH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 030838  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO...AND THIS                
WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.                
THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TRANQUIL WEATHER ACROSS FORECAST AREA TODAY             
AND EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDINESS. THE                       
EXTENT/SPEED OF CLEARING IS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
12Z RUC HOLDS ONTO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LONGER THAN 00Z MODELS...             
AS SHOWN ON 925MB AND 1000/850 MB RH PROGS. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO            
ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS                        
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. CLEARING IS STILL EXPECTED THIS                   
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING A BIT FOR MUCH OF                
NORTHERN LOWER.                                                                 
HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES MOST ZONES DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL...              
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND CURRENT CONDITIONS.                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
BAK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 031502  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1028 AM EDT THU JUN 3 1999                                                      
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AND RATHER UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. SFC FRONT IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED...BUT                  
APPEARS TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL TN AND THEN ENE INTO EXTREME NRN               
NC. BY LATE AFTN SFC BNDRY IS PROGGED BY THE RUC TO EXTEND FROM THE             
CENTRAL NC MTNS ESE ACROSS THE NC/SC BORDER. THIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER           
N THAN THE 00Z MODELS AND MAKES SENSE PER PRIND. DELTA-T/S ARE 16 TO            
17 DEGREES THIS MORNING FROM H7 TO H5...NOT BAD. THE RUC PROJECTS               
OUR LAPSE RATES TO BECOME SHALLOWER THIS AFTN...BUT BASED ON                    
UPSTREAM TEMPS...I DON/T SEE THIS HAPPENING.                                    
AS A RESULT I WILL GO WITH 30 POPS FOR THE NC MTNS AND THE SC AND               
NE GA ZONES. I/D LIKE TO REMOVE POPS FROM OUR ERN NC ZONES BASED ON             
THE PROJECTED DRYING IN THE NC PIEDMONT...BUT I/LL KEEP THEM IN                 
BASED ON THE SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CONVERGENCE ON THE LEE TROUGH WL FIRE           
CONVECTION (AND THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE ZONES FOR 4 RUNS            
NOW).                                                                           
W/HIGHEST LOW LVL THICKNESS IN A FEW DAYS AND W FLOW...TEMPS LOOK               
GOOD.                                                                           
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 031356  sc