AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1116 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST UPDATE ADJUSTED PCPN AND TEMP TRENDS SOMEWHAT.  NRLY STACKED             
UPR LOW SLOWLY CROSSING MO RVR.  VISIBLE STLT IMAGERY NOW SHOWS                 
SC/CU ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH MID/HIGH CLDS OVR ALL BUT NRN PTNS.  16Z              
SFC ANLYS PLACES FILLING LOW BTWN KOLU-KFET WITH ISALLOBARIC COUPLET            
RIGHT ACRS IA.  OCCLUDED THEN WRMFNT NOTED FM LOW TWRD KALO INTO NRN            
IL.  MSTR AXIS NOW E OF FA MAINLY INTO IL.                                      
15Z RUC CONTS TO PUSH DEEPER INSTABILITY IN TERMS OF K                          
INDICES...SHOWALTERS AND MID LVL THETA-E LAPSE RATES OFF TO OUR N               
AND E SO DEEP...USING THE TERM LOOSELY...CONVECTIVE THREAT IS                   
DMSHG.  VRY MINOR SFC BASED POTENTIAL STILL THERE ACRS FAR ERN SXNS             
HWVR WITH SBCAPES UP TO ARND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN...BUT MAINLY              
AFFECTING DVN FA RATHER THAN OURS...SO FEEL SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK MAY BE            
A BIT TOO FAR W.  KEPT MENTION OF THUNDER IN FCST TO BLEND INTO                 
OUTLOOK...BUT APPS THAT CHC DCRG.  BETTER CHCS LOOK TO BE FM MS RVR             
EWD.                                                                            
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS.  WL SEE LTL CHG WRN PTNS AS SFC LOW NRS...AND               
XPC LTL ADDITIONAL REBOUND IN ERN PTNS AS WE HAVE DVLPD LOW CLDS IN             
MOST LOCATIONS.  KEPT HITTING WNDS FAIRLY HARD...SPCLLY SRN HALF S              
OF FNT WHERE WNDS ARE QUITE GUSTY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
718 PM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS            
HAVE ALREADY DRAMATICALLY DECREASED...AND ARE DIFFERING A LITTLE FROM           
THE FORECAST. RUC IS FORECASTING MORE OF A DRAINAGE WIND...ESPECIALLY           
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. SINCE RUC IS HANDLING THE WINDS VERY WELL AT             
THIS TIME...WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS WITH IT. FORECAST MINS LOOK IN GOOD           
SHAPE. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE THE HOURLY TRENDS ON IT AND THE                    
DEWPOINTS. DAY CREW WAS A LITTLE WARY ABOUT FOG FORMING. HOWEVER...             
LATEST DATA WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NOT HAVING IT IN.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1050 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING AND MAKE SOME             
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND/TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM MST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS THE                                
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FROM THE RECENT SNOW. IN THE MID TERM FOCUS              
SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD                
WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT ZONE ISSUANCE AND REPLACE THEM           
WITH A WIND ADVISORY.                                                           
AT 09Z LATEST RADAR AND SURFACE MAP SHOW THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN              
THE HASTINGS FORECAST AREA WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW EXTENDING BACK INTO             
EASTERN COLORADO. WIND GUSTS AT 09Z REMAIN IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT                 
RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER AMOUNTS.                                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...FOCUS TODAY WILL BE THE WINDS. AS OUR WOUND-UP LOW              
PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD MODEST 6 HOURLY PRESSURE RISES            
FOLLOW RIGHT BEHIND IT. 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. RUC AND                  
VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE WINDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA             
WILL BE MET OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME                      
WRAPAROUND CLOUDINESS TODAY AND WITH SOME SNOWCOVER AROUND WILL KEEP            
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR THE VARIOUS MOS/2M GUIDANCE NUMBERS. FOR                   
TONIGHT AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH NOSES INTO THE AREA...LOWERING WIND                
SPEEDS CONSIDERABLY. GIVEN SOME SNOWCOVER AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL                
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES.                                        
TUESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST WITH              
MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON TEMPS             
IN THE MID 40S LOOK GOOD WHEN COMPARING THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS AGAINST THE 850 TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT LOW            
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM                
TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK. AS USUAL...THE EAST SHOULD BE COOLER GIVEN            
THE PROXIMITY TO SURFACE HIGH AND TIME IT WILL TAKE FOR THE                     
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REACH THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. LOW            
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG WILL TRY AND REACH THE                    
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA PER ETA BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. ETA PAINTS            
SOME LIGHT QPF WITH THIS FEATURE AS DOES HPC. GFS A BIT OVERDONE.               
WEDNESDAY...WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SOME NORTHWARD PROGRESS                
PER GFS WHILE THE ETA/UKMET/ECMWF PUSH THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
INTO THE AREA. ETA ALSO TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW ALONG THE WARM               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT 850 AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MORE            
OF A LIQUID FORECAST THAN FROZEN. I DONT HAVE A REAL GOOD FEEL FOR              
WHAT WILL HAPPEN SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HPC QPF AND ETA P-TYPE                 
ALGORITHMS. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA GETS            
IN BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND APPROACHING                        
UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN TEXAS. ETAS CLOUD SHIELD PER              
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE GFS BUT GIVEN           
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL LIKELY SHOW UP FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE GONE ETA              
SOLUTION WITH A MIXED PRECIP TYPE POSSIBLE.                                     
THURSDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN LATEST ETA/GFS TRACK AT TIMING OF             
THE 500 UPPER LOW. GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN ARE FASTER WHILE                        
EXPERIMENTAL ETA IS SLOWER. QPF FORECASTS FROM 12Z-00Z (FRIDAY) KEEP            
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS DRY            
AS WELL BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND             
GFS SUGGESTION THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...             
PUTTING US IN UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.                                       
FRIDAY...DIFFERENCE SHOW UP AGAIN WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF               
THE PASSING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. GFS AS USUAL A BIT WETTER WITH PRECIP            
THAN THE EXPERIMENTAL ETA. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE SILENT 10                 
PERCENT POPS IN TACT.                                                           
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
NE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
CO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL ZONES.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE FOG AND PCPN TRENDS.                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAIN SHRTWV/VORT OVER NRN IL              
ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AS THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP. NORTHWARD              
PROGRESS OF DEFORMATION BAND OF SHOWERS FROM WI HAD STALLED WITH PCPN           
BARELY REACHING KMNM. NEAREST ISOLD TSRA WITH THE SHRTWV WERE ALSO              
WELL TO THE SE OVER NRN LWR MI. WEAKER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED QVECTOR            
CONV OVER UPR MI SUPPORTED SOME -RA OVER NW UPR MI  AT THE                      
SFC...TROF EXTENDED FROM CNTRL UPR MI INTO CNTRL WITH NW FLOW IN ITS            
WAKE. ALTHOUGH DENSE FOG PREVAILED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH VSBYS AOB             
1/4SM...AREAS WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW (NEAR MARQUETTE) WERE LEAST              
AFFECTED. NW UPSLOPE FLOW INTO WRN UPR MI OFF OF LK SUPERIOR HAS                
ALSO REINFORCED THE DENSE FOG.                                                  
RADAR TRENDS AND ETA/RUC SUGGEST RAIN WITH SRN SRHTWV WILL JUST                 
BRUSH LOCATIONS ALONG LK MI WHILE PCPN OVER THE NW MOVES LITTLE.                
OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY -DZ MAY PERSIST IN AREAS BTWN BATCHES OF                
DEEPER MOISTURE. AS THE MID LVL AND SFC LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO             
THE ENE AND WINDS VEER TO NW...EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE BY LATE                  
TONIGHT OVER MOST UPR MI. SO...WL LEAVE GOING DENSE FOG ADVY IN                 
PLACE. COLDER AIR LAGGED CONSIDERABLE FARTHER UPSTREAM WITH TEMPS               
NEAR 32F AND ANY -SN NORTH OF KINL-CYQT. TEMP DEWPOINTS IN THE MN               
ARROWHEAD WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. 00Z ETA SNDGS AND LOW             
LVL THICKNESS WOULD BRING PCPN CHANGEOVER IN THE WEST BTWN 06Z-09Z              
BUT MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN LACK OF COLD AIR IMMEDIATELY                    
UPSTREAM. WITH ONLY WEAK UPR LVL SUPPORT AVBL AND NO CONTRIBUTION               
FROM THE LAKE...ANY SNOW AMOUNTS INTO NW UPR MI LATE TONIGHT SHOULD             
REAMIN AOB 1 INCH.                                                              
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS.                                           
TUE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STALLS OVER UPPER                
MICHIGAN AS UPPER FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW                
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER                  
SUPPORT...FLURRIES IS ABOUT ALL THAT CAN OCCUR. SOME FOG AND                    
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THOUGH FROM ALGER/DELTA COUNTIES EASTWARD               
UNTIL THE COLDER AIR ALOFT GETS THERE IN THE LATE MORNING. DENSE                
FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TEMPS IN THE MID 30S STILL SEEM            
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION IS NOT THAT STRONG. IN                     
FACT...AREAS ALONG THE BAY OF GREEN BAY MAY TOP OUT NEAR 40 DUE TO              
DOWNSLOPING WNW WINDS.                                                          
TUE NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CURRENTLY ALONG THE LEE SIDE              
OF THE ROCKIES...MOVES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING            
WINDS TO DECOUPLE. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT CLEARING CAN TAKE                 
PLACE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS OFF THE ETA (E.G. 925MB) SAY THAT THE U.P.            
WILL STAY CLOUDY. CURRENT OBS ALONG THE ROCKIES SHOW CLOUDY SKIES               
WITH IFR CIGS. SO WILL LEAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN THAT                    
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ABOVE 925MB...FIGURE MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO            
LOW TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW OR FLURRIES. THEREFORE THESE WILL BE REMOVED            
OUT OF THE FCST.                                                                
WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST AS A SHRTWV TROUGH             
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. HOWEVER...NOT                  
EXPECTING THIS SHRTWV TROUGH TO REACH UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL WED                  
NIGHT. MEANWHILE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE UPPER LOW OVER                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED DOWN NEAR                   
THE BAJA PENINSULA AT 12Z WED. THIS UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST DURING THE            
DAY...ALLOWING PRESSURES TO FALL OVER WEST TEXAS. THE SFC LOW THAT              
DEVELOPS WILL BE THE ONE THAT AFFECTS THE U.P. IN THE EXTENDED. WARM            
ADVECTION BEHIND THE HIGH/AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS                    
REBOUND...BUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE DUE TO EXISTING LOW LEVEL                   
STRATUS...UPPER 30S WILL BE AS HIGH AS TEMPS CAN GET.                           
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE TROUGH           
SWING THROUGH THE U.P. DURING THE NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT             
SNOW WITH IT. QPF AMOUNTS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...CONSIDERING ALL THE             
MOISTURE IS CAUGHT UP WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS. NONETHELESS...ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE               
QUESTION WITH THE TROUGH. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES...COOL HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS AND THEN ACROSS ONTARIO ON                
THU. WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM -10 TO -14C...WL ALSO INCLUDE A                      
CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS           
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30 WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT...EXCEPT ALONG THE            
LAKESHORES WHERE NE WINDS PULL WARMER AIR OFF SUPERIOR.                         
EXTENDED (FRI THROUGH MON)...PATTERN STILL UNCERTAIN AS MULTIPLE                
STRONG SHRTWVS RACE ACROSS THE PACIFIC. ANOTHER UNCERTAIN ITEM IS               
THE TRACK OF THU NIGHT/FRI SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND THE              
KEY APPEARS TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE MODELS            
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE...THE ECMWF AND UKMET...TAKE THE LOW ACROSS               
THE MACKINAC STRAITS FRI AFTERNOON. THE 00Z...06Z AND 12Z GFS                   
RUNS HAVE WEAKER RIDGES...THUS THE LOW GOES ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN.           
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINITY...WL LEAVE FRIDAY FORECAST ALONE AND CONTINUE            
TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO IN CASE THE FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.                
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IF THE ECMWF IS                
CORRECT. BEYOND FRI...WL FOLLOW HPC FORECAST WHICH WAS A ECMWF/06Z              
GFS BLEND. SHRTWV OVER ROCKIES THAT KICKS THE TROUGH OUT OF THE                 
SOUTHWEST STATES DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS                    
SAT...WHICH THEN MOVES ACROSS OHIO ON SUN. THIS SYSTEM WL STAY FAR              
ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY SNOW OVER THE U.P.. THEN AS THE FLOW                
TURNS ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES               
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...REACHING MANITOBA SUN MORNING AND NORTHERN             
ONTARIO MON MORNING. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING             
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO UPPER MI SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY COLD               
ADVECTION ON MON. WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW ON MON TOO GIVEN                
UNCERTAINITY ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE ENTIRE EXTENDED                
FORECAST. TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
            DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MIZ001>003-009-084                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR LOW/992MB SFC LO               
OVER ERN NB DRIFTING SLOWLY ENE INTO UPR RDG OVER THE ERN CONUS.                
WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.81 INCH AT GRB) WELL IN ADVANCE             
OF SFC/UPR LO NOTED LIFTING NWD THRU LK MI AND NE WI...WITH AREA OF             
LGT TO MDT RA IN RRQ UPR DVGC OF 100KT H3 JET MAX NR GRB MOVING INTO            
THE SCNTRL ZNS AT 14Z. OTRW...THERE IS NO PCPN ACRS THE FA ATTM AS              
12Z APX SDNG SHOWS AIRMASS AHEAD OF MSTR SLUG RATHER DRY...BUT SKIES            
ARE CLDY WITH SFC TEMPS 34 TO 39.                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY IS RA TRENDS.                                            
12Z RUC/06Z ETA AND GFS SHOW OCCLUDED CYC IN NB MOVING TO NE IA BY              
00Z. H3 JET MAX PROGGED TO LIFT N THRU CNTRL CWA...WITH ACCOMPANYING            
UPR DVGC THUS IMPACTING THE ECNTRL FA MORE THAN THE FAR W. ALTHOUGH             
GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT/DPVA AND DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD             
OF APRCHG CYC WL CAUSE RA TO BREAK OUT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE             
AFTN...XPCT THE MOST WDSPRD/HEAVIER RA TO IMPACT THE ECNTRL ZNS                 
UNDER THE BETTER UPR DVGC. RA AMTS OVER THE FAR ERN CWA MAY BE                  
LIMITED INITIALLY BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIR AS DEPICTED ON APX SDNG...              
BUT PERSISTENCE OF DYNAMICS SHUD EVENTUALLY SATURATE THE AIRMASS                
THERE. WDSPRD CLD COVER AND RA WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP INCRS...BUT SFC            
TEMPS ALREADY ABV 32...SO NO FZRA CONCERNS CONSIDERING RATHER WARM              
SURFACES DUE TO RECENT WARMTH. RECENT COORDINATION WITH NCRFC SUGS              
EXPECTED QPF WL NOT PRESENT ANY SGNFT HYDRO PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY               
CONSIDERING RA WL FALL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NR 40 TO LIMIT                  
RUNOFF. LATEST RIVER LEVEL OBS INDICATE LTL IN THE WAY OF RISE THE              
LAST 24 HRS...AND CURRENT LEVELS WELL BLO FLOOD OR EVEN BANKFULL                
STAGE. DRIER AIR PROGGED TO MOVE IN AFTER 21Z ONCE UPR JET/DVGC AND             
DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTS N. MDDELS SHOW SHOWALTER INDEX FALLING             
TO ABOUT +1C TO 2C TOWARD 00Z ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS AS COLDER H5 AIR            
OVERSPREADS LINGERING H85 THERMAL RDG...SO HAVE OPTED TO ALLOW                  
MENTION OF ISOLD -TSRA IN THAT AREA EVEN THOUGH DRYING ALF/LOSS OF              
BETTER DYNAMICS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CNVCTN.                                  
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY            
06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT            
AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM)                    
ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF                   
ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK               
SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE              
LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A               
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1            
TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND             
NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE              
SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW             
ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO                
DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR                
FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE.                                                     
AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY                  
MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND                 
SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC.              
TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW            
AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH                   
FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING              
BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK              
RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX.                                              
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
734 AM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RAINFALL CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE CWA THIS                    
MORNING. RADAR TRENDS AND RUC 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION POINT TO                  
RAINFALL EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY 15Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES             
TO BRING RAIN INTO ALL BUT THE THUMB COUNTIES THROUGH 15Z. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO HOLD PRECIP OFF IN THE THUMB UNTIL AFTER 15Z. IN                    
ADDITION...WITH TEMPERATURE AT MOP 28 COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF               
FZRA IN BAY/MIDLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 9 AM. NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE             
MUCH OF A PROBLEM GIVEN FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AND INITIAL             
LIGHT NATURE OF PRECIP.                                                         
OKEEFE                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED 140 AM...UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD...WITH RAIN BEING THE                      
PREDOMINATE WEATHER TYPE.                                                       
ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO PEAK OUT IN THE              
LOWER 50S. UNFORTUNATELY...WE WILL HAVE SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTEND            
WITH AS A SPOKE OF ENERGY (CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA) AND MOISTURE                
AXIS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH MOISTURE SURGING UP THE MISSISSIPPI                       
VALLEY...AS A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL             
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL WORK IT'S WAY             
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO             
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER WERE                  
PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE COLD CORE LOW...WITH EVEN FEW HAIL AND              
WIND DAMAGE REPORTS NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY                  
YESTERDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN FIRING            
UP ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS/ARKANSAS...OUT AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS THE                
MENTIONED ENERGY/WAVE.                                                          
FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY THE                
SHORT TERM MODELS DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THE SHOWALTER INDEX GOING             
NEGATIVE IS THE NGM. HOWEVER...CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE MESOETA                 
SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR COMING IN AROUND 925 MB...WHERE                  
COMPUTED LI'S DO GO NEGATIVE BY EVENING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING              
ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS              
ANY DAYTIME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW (-24              
TO -28 C AT 500 MB) QUICKLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN               
THE WORK WEEK. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO TRACK NORTH OF THE GREAT                 
LAKES THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ONTARIO IN            
IT'S WAKE. THE PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE SOUTH APPEARS TO BE                      
WEAK...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.                
MEANWHILE...MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF               
NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY. EUROPEAN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS                 
ALL NOW SHOWING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO FRIDAY                
MORNING. WITH THIS MORE WESTERN TRACK WILL CALL FOR ALL RAIN INTO               
FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A REAL GOOD SOAKING...AS PW VALUES               
CLIMB ABOVE 1.25 INCHES. WITH A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE (YESTERDAY'S             
00Z GFS RUN WAS SIMILAR)...WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY THURSDAY                 
NIGHT...AND RAISE TEMPS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE              
OUT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD THEM              
TO THE FORECAST IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK AS VIGOROUS.                    
DESPITE THE FACT MOST/ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS               
WARM/RAINY SCENARIO...THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE            
TOUGH TIME WITH CUTOFF LOWS EXTENDING SO FAR SOUTH (NORTHERN                    
MEXICO). THERE IS A BIAS AT TIMES OF LIFTING/OPENING UP THESE                   
SYSTEMS TOO FAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY PARKED ACROSS             
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS/MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER. THIS COULD OPEN THE                 
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM LATE IN            
THE WORK WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...PRODUCING MORE OF A SNOWY                    
SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
UNOFFICIAL FEBRUARY NUMBERS ARE IN.                                             
WHERE WAS THE SNOW???                                                           
THE DETROIT METRO AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 28.5 DEGREES...WHICH WAS             
1.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 0.9             
INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE 3RD LEAST SNOWIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD.              
THE RECORD FOR LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW IN FEBRUARY IS A TRACE WHICH                
OCCURRED IN 1998.                                                               
THE FLINT BISHOP AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMP WAS 24.9 DEGREES...WHICH WAS              
1.1 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH WAS ONLY 6.1             
INCHES...WHICH IS 3.3 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.                                      
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
555 AM EST MON MAR 01 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TODAY THEN PCPN               
TYPE AND CHCS TONIGHT.                                                          
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS UPR RDG OVER THE GRT LAKES WITH            
A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. WK SHRTWV LOBE                    
ROTATING UP FROM CLOSED LOW LIFTING BAND OF -RA UP THROUGH WI EARLY             
THIS MORNING AS NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR OVR               
UPR GRT LAKES AS EVIDENT ON 00Z KAPX AND KGRB SNDGS IS NOW BREAKING             
APART THIS BAND AS IT REACHES INTO FAR NRN WI. EXPECT ONLY A FEW                
SPRINKLES OVER WI BDR COUNTIES FROM THIS INITIAL BAND.                          
TODAY...MAIN EVENT LOOK LIKE IT WILL TAKE PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS               
MAIN SHRTWV NOW OVER ERN KS ROTATES UP INTO WI AND LWR MI...PER                 
MODEL FCST. STRENGTHENING 850 MB JET OVER SE WI AND LAKE MI IN LEFT             
FRONT QUADRANT OF 120 KT UPR JET WILL FOCUS MOISTURE AND LLVL                   
CONVERGENCE TO ALLOW MAIN BAND OF PCPN NOW OVR ERN IL...INDIANA AND             
LAKE MI TO LIFT INTO UPR MI THIS AFT. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL                 
FAVOR ERN HALF OF UPR MI FOR CATEGORICAL RAIN WHILE RAIN WILL BE                
MORE SCT WEST OF A KMQT-KIMT LINE. WENT ONLY SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDANCE              
TEMPS AS THICKENING CLDS AND ERLY FLOW WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH OF A                 
REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS.                             
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE PUSHED TO THE EAST BY            
06Z AS THE SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN LWR MI. WITH MID LVL SLOT            
AND SOMEWHAT STEEPER MID-LVL LAPSE RATES (APPROACHING 7C/KM)                    
ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL AND SE COUNTIES WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF                   
ISOLATED THUNDER. MODELS STILL HINT THAT DEFORMATION BAND ON BACK               
SIDE OF SFC LOW WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS WRN AND NCNTRL UPR MI BEFORE              
LIFTING NE TUE MORNING. MODEL SNDGS AND LOW-LVL THCKNS INDICATE A               
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEHIND OCCLUDED COLD FRONT. WITH ANYWHERE FROM .1            
TO .2 INCH OF MODEL QPF...WOULD EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVR W AND             
NCNTRL COUNTIES. LLVL THCKNS OVER EASTERN ZONES SUGGEST PCPN THERE              
SHOULD STAY LIQUID...KEPT IN A MENTION OF DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SCT RW             
ALTHOUGH ETA MODEL SNDGS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO                
DISRUPT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. KEPT IN A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...DZ OR                
FZDZ FOR SCNTRL ZONES LATE.                                                     
AS FOR HYDRO ISSUES...WITH .25 TO .40 INCH OF QPF PREDICTED BY                  
MODELS SHOULD SEE SOME RISES IN RIVER LEVEL DUE TO RAINFALL AND                 
SNOWMELT RUN OFF...ALTHOUGH WOULDN'T EXPECT ANYTHING TOO DRAMATIC.              
TUESDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREAS BEHIND SFC LOW            
AS 850 MB TEMPS ONLY FALL TO -6C TO -8C...NOT YET COLD ENOUGH                   
FOR LAKE EFFECT. WITH LTL OR NO SYNOPTIC SUPPPORT AND WEAK RIDGING              
BUILDING IN ALOFT WOULD EXPECT ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR                   
FLURRIES.                                                                       
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WK              
RDGG MOVES OVER AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PERHAPS COULD SEE SOME WAA             
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WED AFT AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NRN                
PLAINS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WX.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
320 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER               
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW              
LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER            
THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER            
STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP             
AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE            
RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH            
AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY            
SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY             
36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING              
THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                    
ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED              
TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                 
TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.            
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR                 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST.                     
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY            
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN            
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM            
FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE              
ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP                
READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.                                            
MJ                                                                              
A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT              
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND              
NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE               
FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO            
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY                  
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS             
SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE              
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN               
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE                    
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT              
LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD              
COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT.                  
LS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
330 AM...                                                                       
THE FOCUS OF THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS ON LARGE CLOSED LOW SWEEPING             
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND ITS EFFECT ON THE                 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SECONDARY CONCERN IS ON THE POTENTIAL               
RETURN OF STORMY WEATHER WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY.                            
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONUS DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE            
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THIS MORNING. THE TROUGH IS                    
DEFINED BY TWO VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST HAS CARVED OUT A                  
CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA...WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST                   
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ENTERING              
THE WEST COAST OVER OREGON.                                                     
THE CLOSED LOW LIFTING OUT OF NEBRASKA HAS BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT DRY            
SLOT TO EAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. LATER THIS MORNING                   
MOISTURE IN THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST            
CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OR                    
POSSIBLY SNOW DURING THE COOL MORNING HOURS. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL              
EXPAND ALONG THE MISSOURI IOWA BORDER AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST THIS               
AFTERNOON. WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE RANGING ABOVE 50KT ON THE VAD             
WIND PROFILER THIS MORNING...AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL                
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...THE                 
CLOUD COVER THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING SHOULD PREVENT ENOUGH                
MIXING TO TRANSPORT THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO WHILE I EXPECT               
WINDS TO BE BLUSTERY TODAY...THEY SHOULD RANGE JUST BELOW ADVISORY              
CRITERIA.                                                                       
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN WILL              
ARRIVE IN MIDWEST THANKS TO THE SECOND SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY DIGGING            
INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE DESERT               
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE EJECTING BITS AND PIECES OF ITSELF             
OUT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THIS SCENARIO              
IS ON THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE             
UKMET/EXTRAPOLATED ETA. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE DISPLAYING ITS BIAS OF              
HOLDING THE SHORTWAVES TRACK A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH. THE MAIN EFFECT            
THIS HAS HAD ON THE FORECAST WAS TO SHIFT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP             
FROM WEDNESDAY...WITH THE FIRST SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...TO                 
THURSDAY WHEN THE OPEN WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN               
MISSOURI. I LIMITED THE LIKELY THUNDERSTORM POPS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN            
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WERE THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION LOOKS TO             
OCCUR. DESPITE MY PREFERENCE FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO             
THE MID WEEK SYSTEMS...I HAVE BUMPED HIGH AND LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE             
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE COLDER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN BOTTLED UP NORTH             
OF THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL JET.                                                
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1029 PM SUN...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS SHORTLY...TO                   
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT QUICKLY AND             
DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE              
NIGHT. WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF                   
MISSOURI AS MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER.                             
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1050 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
JUST SENT UPDATE TO FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE               
TRENDS.  BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT GIVEN THE WARM START THIS MORNING.               
FORECAST FOR WINDS IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...STAYING JUST BELOW                 
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
SPC MESOANALYIS AT 16Z SHOWING MUCAPES AROUND 500J/KG WITH                      
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PARAMETERS.  RUC SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                 
GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER IL/NERN MO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT                 
UNDER STRONG 700-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...SO SHOULD SEE SOME                
TSRA DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS THIS AFTN.  AGREE WITH SPC'S SLIGHT RISK            
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND                    
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.                                        
LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE SAME.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
857 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING...NO UPDATE PLANNED             
TO TEXT PRODUCTS. CIRRUS PLUME WILL MAINTAIN PC SKIES OVERNIGHT.                
ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE            
WX TUE NIGHT INTO THU.                                                          
EARLY EVENING SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AT LEAST 2 AND POSSIBLY 3              
BOUNDARIES TO OUR S. SOUTHERNMOST FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR TX            
COAST NE-WARD ACROSS LA-MS. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT - BARELY MORE               
THAN A WIND SHIFT - RUNS FROM NE NM TO NEAR LBB...S OF DFW...INTO S             
AND E AR. DEWPOINT GRADIENT HAS BECOME MORE GRADUAL IN BETWEEN...BUT            
BASED ON MESOSCALE MODEL FIELDS ONE COULD DRAW A BROAD DRYLINE IN               
BETWEEN...FROM S AR AND NW LA INTO S TX. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE              
THAT THINGS WILL BECOME SIMPLER BY TUE...AS NORTHERNMOST FRONT                  
DISSIPATES WHILE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT CONSOLIDATE BY 12Z                
FROM S TX NE-WARD TO VICINITY NW LA AND LOWER MS VALLEY. RUC/GFS                
ARE A BIT FARTHER S THAN MESOETA TUE MORNING. WHEREVER IT SETS                  
UP...SHARPENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET STAGE FOR INITIATION OF                
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AS GULF MOISTURE - THIS TIME                 
UNMODIFIED BY COLD INTRUSION - LIFTS N OVER FRONT IN RESPONSE TO                
DEVELOPING SW SYSTEM. PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT BY LATE TUE OVER TX...BUT            
MORE LIKELY OVER NTX AND OK TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM            
ADVECTION AND LIFTING VIA 850MB SPEED CONVERGENCE. PW VALUES PROGGED            
TO INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY WED...NOT BAD FOR EARLY MARCH. WITH              
GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW INVOLVED...EXPECT HEAVY             
TO EXCESSIVE RAIN TO BE THE MAIN STORY. STORM TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES -            
PER HPC AND MODEL QPFS - LOOKS PLAUSIBLE MAINLY OVER S AND E PARTS              
OF CWA. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...MAIN CONCERN MAY BE ELEVATED                  
HAILERS AS WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A FARTHER S FRONTAL POSITION                   
WED-THU. RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD BE AN OBSTACLE THAT                
WILL MAKE THE COOLER SFC AIR TOUGH TO CHASE OUT THIS EARLY IN THE               
SEASON. WILL BE A LOT MORE INTERESTING LATE WED IF MESOETA ENDS                 
UP RIGHT AND FRONT LIFTS N INTO NTX-OK. 24                                      
325 PM CST MON MAR  1 2004                                                      
NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING WEATHER TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO                
DIG SOUTH ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE LIFTING EAST ACROSS                     
SOUTHWESTERN US/NORTHERN MEXICO AROUND MID WEEK.  BETTER LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WILL THIS SYSTEM AS WEEKEND COLD FRONT               
WILL STALL ALONG TEXAS COAST BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT                   
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT               
AS LLJ INCREASES.  ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS FORECAST ELEVATED CAPE                    
VALUES AROUND 1000J BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
PARTS OF FA.  APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION                      
WILL BE FROM SOUTHERN OK/EASTERN TX COUNTIES INTO EASTERN PARTS                 
OF FA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  ETA LIKELY TO AGGRESSIVE                 
IN BRINGING SURFACE WARM FRONT TOO FAR NORTH SO WARM SECTOR FOR                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST.  WITH                   
SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN                
INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF AREA WILL HAVE GOOD CHANCE AT HEAVY RAINFALL.             
DRYLINE TO PUSH EAST ON THURSDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE                
BASED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF FA.                                        
NEXT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AROUND FRIDAY WITH                
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF AREA.  PRECIP                    
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                                              
APPEAR AFTER THIS SYSTEM THAT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE              
DRY WITH AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                            
FCSTID = 6                                                                      
OKC  34 60 45 57 / 00 00 60 70                                                  
HBR  31 60 46 56 / 00 00 50 60                                                  
SPS  37 62 53 65 / 00 10 60 70                                                  
GAG  27 54 40 51 / 00 00 40 40                                                  
PNC  31 54 41 50 / 00 00 50 60                                                  
DUA  37 64 54 65 / 00 10 60 70                                                  
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
952 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING FRONTAL PRECIP OVER EASTERN KY AND TN                    
DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. FRESH 0Z MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THE BAND             
TO DRIFT INTO THE LOWER APPALACHIANS MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z. WILL                
SLOW DOWN TIMING FOR THE UPDATE AND MAKE POPS HIGHLY TERRAIN                    
DEPENDANT. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO CARRY               
POPS...WITH NO MENTION EAST.                                                    
MESOETA SHOWS H85 WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 KTS WILL WORK EAST OVER                   
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WILL EXPECT THE PEAKS TO RATHER                 
WINDY AND SHOWERS MAY MIX WINDS FURTHER. WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER               
THE MTNS BY 5 MPH WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY RANGE.            
WITH WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BL MIXING AND AN INCREASE              
IN CLOUDS WILL TWEAK TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST               
FLP AND MAV GUIDANCE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GSP 52 67 50 70 / 20 40 30 20                                                   
AND 54 68 50 70 / 30 40 30 20                                                   
CLT 53 68 50 70 / 10 30 20 20                                                   
HKY 51 65 48 68 / 30 40 20 40                                                   
AVL 49 63 46 65 / 40 60 30 40                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NED                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
830 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING.             
THE STATIONARY FRONT LIES BETWEEN HARLINGEN AND MCALLEN EXTENDING               
NORTHEAST ACROSS WILLACY COUNTY. WITH THE FRONT IN THE                          
VICINITY...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE             
CWA TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO INCLUDE FOG TONIGHT.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CONDITIONS AT BUOY020 HAVE DIPPED BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH AN            
EASTERLY WIND AROUND 8 KTS WITH SWELLS AROUND 6 FT.  THE WEAKENING              
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW THE SWELLS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE            
LATER TONIGHT.  SO WILL REMOVE THE SCA HEADLINE FOR THE OFFSHORE                
WATERS AND WILL REPLACE WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS AROUND THE EASTERN RGV AIRPORTS ARE LOWERING AS THE            
SE SURFACE CONTINUES TO PUSH MOIST AIR IN OFF OF THE GULF OF MEX.               
ALSO VSBYS HAVE BEGUN TO LOWER IN THE SE FLOW.  HOWEVER...A DRIER               
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS AT THE MFE AIRPORT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY              
REMAINS STALLED BETWEEN WESLACO AND HRL.  THE SURFACE FLOW AS MFE               
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND             
TOMORROW ALLOWING CIGS AND VSBYS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT.  THE OVERALL TAF            
TREND LOOKS OK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO             
GRANDE CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE            
SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND              
MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE              
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT            
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH            
A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW             
CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.                              
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61                                                             
AVIATION/MARINE/MESO...60                                                       
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 PM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM RIO GRANDE               
CITY INTO SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY AND STILL PROGRESSING TO THE                   
SOUTHEAST. PROGRESS HAS SLOWED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND              
MESOETA STALL THE BOUNDARY AROUND 00Z THEN BEGIN ITS RETURN TO THE              
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. LIGHT            
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY THE RESULT OF THE FRONT COLLIDING WITH            
A LONG LIVED STREAMER. MAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY REST OF TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW             
CONFINED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT                               
.LONG TERM...LONG TERM FORECAST RESTS ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER            
LEVEL TROUGH JUST NOW MOVING DOWN THE OREGON COAST. AS THE TROUGH               
MOVES THROUGH NORTH TEXAS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WEST TEXAS.              
THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRAGS THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH                 
TEXAS ON THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. AT THIS TIME IT              
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GO TOO FAR NORTH FOR OUR               
CWA TO SEE MUCH RAINFALL. IF THE UPPER TROUGH DIVES FARTHER                     
SOUTH...OUR RAIN CHANCES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.                                    
.MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 4 KNOTS WITH                
GUSTS TO 6 KNOTS AND 7 FOOT SWELLS AT 9 SECONDS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL            
CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT WITH SWELLS                  
DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SOMETIME THIS EVENING.             
SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AS WINDS                     
DECREASE. MODERATING WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP UNTIL TUESDAY             
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHEN WINDS PICK UP IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE               
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THIS CHANGING WEATHER                      
REGIME...BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. &&                      
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.               
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW                
CEILINGS AND FOG RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT              
AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...                                                      
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 76 66 79 68/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
BROWNSVILLE         64 76 67 80 67/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
HARLINGEN           62 77 65 82 66/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
MCALLEN             61 78 64 83 66/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
RIO GRANDE CITY     59 79 62 84 66/ 00 10 10 10 10                              
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  64 74 66 76 67/ 10 00 00 00 00                              
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SCA FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...64                                                             
AVIATION/MARINE...52                                                            
MESO...VEGA                                                                     
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
840 PM EST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARED OUT AREA OVER NWRN HALF OF                     
FA...WITH GENERALLY M CLOUDY SKY SERN HALF. ALSO...TEMPS ACROSS                 
EASTERN SHORE...INCLUDING SBY...OXB...AND WAL...ALREADY IN MID                  
40S...A LITTLE BELOW FCAST MINS. WILL UPDATE TO REFLECT CURRENT                 
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPS TO LEVEL            
OFF. LATEST MODEL RUNS...INCLUDING RUC...AND 18Z ETA...GFS...KEEP               
BULK OF PRECIP W OF THE FA OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FAR WRN                       
ZONES...LATE...IN THE CASE OF THE ETA. WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES                
TONIGHT TO FAR WRN ZONES...AND EVEN THERE JUST A 30 POP.                        
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REILLY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
252 AM MST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEING CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.                  
WITH THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 500 MB                    
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING. AZTEC NM PROFILER IS                
SHOWING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AS THIS            
SYSTEM EVOLVES. A WEAK WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS                
THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY AND IS PRODUCING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST                 
MID CLOUD DECK OVER MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO                   
AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH PER RADAR.                          
A STRONG UPPER JET OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DIG THE WESTERN TROUGH               
SOUTH TODAY WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND           
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SOUTHERLY FLOW              
EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE FOUR CORNERS           
AREA. SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION,                   
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWESTERN SAN JUANS WHERE TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW           
15-25KT 700MB WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE AREA WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN              
PLACE BY TONIGHT. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS              
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL HOIST A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN              
SAN JUANS WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE EXPECTED               
TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADJACENT VALLEY ZONES COULD                   
GET SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TONIGHT BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO                    
ISSUE A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AT THE MOMENT. NORTH             
OF THE SAN JUANS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH              
DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING LACKING.                                         
THE CLOSED LOW WILL STAY WAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WEAKENING SOUTH FLOW ACROSS            
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL SHUT DOWN WIDE SPREAD PRECIPITATION. MAY             
PICK UP SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING. A           
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
WITH A WEAK PUSH OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A               
POTENTIAL WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP LOW POPS                  
IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                
LITTLE DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT             
TERM.                                                                           
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...NEXT FAST MOVING SHRTWV NOW DIVING SOUTHEAST                  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITS THE                 
AREA EARLY FRIDAY.  QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...             
ALTHOUGH FAST MOVEMENT WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP.              
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS WITH H7 FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND               
30 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES.  LATEST GFS IS NOW                 
INDICATING THIS WAVE WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS             
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED CURRENT GRIDDED FIELDS                  
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...WITH SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES                
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WL NOT ADJUST SOUTHERN POPS MUCH ATTM.                 
SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WITH H7 READINGS              
DROPPING TO AROUND -14 C.                                                       
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...NW FLOW ALOFT WL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...WITH              
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HEIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK WAVES PASSING            
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA MAY CLIP THE NRN MOUNTAINS FROM TIME-TO-               
TIME...SO WL KEEP A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...            
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE SEASONAL                
NORMS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONE 19.                              
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
TAL/JDC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
355 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST               
AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK                  
RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF                   
PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF              
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME                  
RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST             
AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND            
PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK              
BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR             
SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO               
RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR                    
AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT              
AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH            
AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS            
TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY            
AND PLEASANT.                                                                   
INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT             
MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM                 
FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION               
FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE             
FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT.            
WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR                
NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES.                              
EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO             
FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF              
THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS               
GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW                    
COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK             
ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL              
LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS                
RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE             
ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT            
INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD                
SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI                
AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA                
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS                 
THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER                     
FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD               
OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS               
HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO               
LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT             
ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A             
SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY               
SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL                 
LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS             
THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY              
INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND              
CONTINUES.                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO                
SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE             
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF SHOWERS NOW EAST OF KFWA. LOWER MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK WITH              
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND NARROWN CLEAR SLOT               
BEHIND FRONT. THEN ETA/MESOETA PROFILES KEEP KSBN AND KFWA IN HIGH              
2-4KFT MOISTURE THROUGH REMAINDER OF TERMINALS. KFWA NEAR SOUTHERN              
EDGE OF MOISTURE POOL AND WILL ALLOW HEATING/MIXING TO TAKE THEM VFR            
BY 22Z. A WEAK 8H TROF/SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHWEST GREAT               
LAKES 00Z-06Z WED BUT STRENGTH DOESNT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRENT              
PCPN MENTION WITH GREATER FORCING/BETTER MOISTURE NORTH OF                      
TERMINALS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
LINGERING FOG AND SNOW THIS MORNING IS SHORT TERM CONCERN.                      
OCCLUDED SFC LOW RESIDING NEAR WAWA ONTARIO (CYXZ) CONTINUES TO LIFT            
NE AS UPR LOW OPENS UP OVR UPR MI. DEEP MOISTURE SPURRING ON SOME               
LGT SNOW IN DECAYING DEFORMATION BAND FM NORTHEAST MN INTO NW UPR               
MI. SHORT RANGE MODELS MISSING MARK SO FAR WITH LOW-MID 30S TD AS               
FAR W AS N MN...BUT EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING BLYR FLOW/WEAK COLD             
AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE                 
ATTM. STILL...WILL RIDE WITH SOME DENSE FOG THROUGH AT LEAST MID                
MORNING EAST HALF OF CWA. ALTHOUGH ITS POSSIBLE THAT MAY SEE SOME               
LOCALLY DENSE FOG REFORM BRIEFLY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA EARLY THIS AM               
(BTWN 4 AM AND 8 AM)...THINK WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS ENDING...SO                
BARRING ANY LAST MINUTE DRASTIC CHANGES IN CURRENT OBS...AM PLANNING            
TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVY.                                                       
00Z KINL/KMPX SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS N MN IN THE               
H9-H8 LAYER WITH BOTH LOCATIONS DEPICTING RATHER MOIST SFC-H9 LAYER.            
THE H9-H8 LAYER SEEMS GOOD FIT COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS IN MN WHERE              
PCPN IS OCCURRING AND BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW SOME SIMBLANCE OF DEEPER                
MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH TODAY. WENT WITH SCT -SHSN ACROSS                   
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN/NCNTRL UPR MI THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FLURRIES                 
OTHERWISE. TEMPS SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT LOW-MID 30S READINGS              
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. WEAK WAVE OVER WRN               
DAKOTAS CROSSES UPR LAKES TONIGHT SO KEPT SOME FLURRIES IN THE FCST             
UNTIL OVERNIGHT AS FORCING FM WAVE PASSES TO E.                                 
.LONG TERM (WED THROUGH MON)...                                                 
QUICK HITTING N STREAM WAVE WED-WED NITE AND SIG SYSTEM FOR FRI ARE             
HIGHLIGHTS OF LONGER TERM.                                                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS PAC NW/SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA ATTM              
PROGGED TO PRESS STEADILY EWD INTO UPR GREAT LAKES BY LATE WED. W               
FLOW NOTED IN N STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SO TREND              
OFF 00Z MODELS OF QUICKER ARRIVAL FOR WAVE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH                
WITH LIGHT SNOW IS BELIEVABLE. ADJUSTED POPS TO FAVOR 00Z-06Z WED               
NIGHT FOR BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. INCREASING S/SW FLOW TRANSPORTING                
GULF MOISTURE INTO UPR LAKES WITH PWATS RISING TOWARD 0.5 INCH ON               
BOTH GFS/ETA WILL FEED QUICK HITTING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. MIXING               
RATIOS BTWN 1-2 G/KG/MODEL QPF UP TO 0.20 SUGGESTS AN INCH TO TWO OF            
SNOW FOR MOST CWA. DESPITE SNOW...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION             
FM THIS SYSTEM MAY BE TO DRAG PORTION OF COLD AIR BOTTLED UP OVR                
CANADA FOR PAST COUPLE WEEKS INTO UPR LAKES. H85 TEMPS FALL TO                  
AROUND -12C BY DAYBREAK THU PER GFS/ETA A BIT WARMER -10C OFF                   
ECMWF/UKMET. KEPT THE SMALL CHANCE OF LK EFFECT LATE WED NITE INTO              
THU AM.                                                                         
BY THU AFTN ATTN TURNS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVR CNTRL PLAINS IN               
RESPONSE TO SHARP UPR TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF S PLAINS. 00Z MODELS               
GFS/ETA/CANADIAN/UKMET AND MARCH 1 12Z ECMWF ALL DEPICT SFC LOW                 
RIDING NE INTO VCTY OF N IL BY 12Z FRI (ECMWF A BIT FARTHER TO                  
NW)...THEN TO N LK HURON BY 00Z SAT. H85/H7 LOWS TRACK FM CNTRL WI              
INTO E UPR MI. WITH FARTHER NW TRACK ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMPS WARMING            
ABOVE ZERO BY THAT TIME (FZRA/RA SCENARIO) WHILE ALL OTHERS DEPICT              
BLYR COLD ENOUGH FOR A SNOW EVENT FOR ALL CWA. STILL SOME                       
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE THAT IS INGESTED INTO THE              
SYSTEM (PWATS RANGE FM 0.6 ON GFS TO NEAR 1.0 ON ETA)...BUT EVEN SO             
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SNOW FRI AND TO HIGH CHANCE              
POPS FRI NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT OF UPR LAKES. ONLY NEED TO TWEAK             
HWO WHICH CONVEYS SITUATION WELL.                                               
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRI NIGHT.                                         
THANKS TO GRB AND APX FOR COORD.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
255 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND              
THE THREAT OF A MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THURSDAY. LATEST                  
MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH                
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SIMILIAR IN DROPPING               
THE SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH            
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE                 
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY                
MORNING. PREFER SLIGHTLY FASTER AVN WITH THE INITIATION OF WEAK WARM            
ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
GENERALLY FOUND ON THE 290-295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND CONFINED TO             
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THESE SURFACES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY               
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...ALBEIT NOT TOO                   
STRONG. AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. HAVE SOME               
CONCERN THAT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY                 
CONCENTRATE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA.             
PREFER ETA WITH THIS SCENARIO AS BELIEVE AVN A LITTLE TOO BULLISH               
WITH DEPICTION OF STRONG QPF IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BY                
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED             
INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY ETA...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                            
MAIN CONERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT            
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.                   
A LITTLE TOO SOON ON PARTICULARS ON EXACT TRACK...BUT BOTH ETA/GFS              
TRACK STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY             
EVENING WITH COPIOUS H8 MOISTURE. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL                 
LOW...PREFER SURFACE LOW TRACK OF GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM                 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO                
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE                      
COMBINATION OF STRONG QG FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH              
OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5             
INCHES MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME...FEEL               
BEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL ISSUE             
AN ESF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AREA COULD EASILY            
RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITH WOULD EXCEED HEADWATER                   
GUIDANCE. AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON LATER DATA.                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH                 
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST TODAY...ONLY TO               
GIVE WAY TO INCRREASING HIGH CLOUDS.                                            
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
320 PM...                                                                       
GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER               
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW              
LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER            
THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER            
STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP             
AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE            
RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH            
AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY            
SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY             
36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING              
THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                    
ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED              
TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                 
TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.            
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR                 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST.                     
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY            
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN            
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM            
FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE              
ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP                
READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.                                            
MJ                                                                              
A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT              
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND              
NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE               
FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO            
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY                  
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS             
SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE              
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN               
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE                    
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT              
LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD              
COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT.                  
LS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
317 AM CST MON MAR 1 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE               
PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEM.             
00Z MODELS HAD A FEW PROBLEMS INITIALIZING WHEN COMPARING MODELS TO             
THE RAOBS. MAJOR PROBLEMS APPEARED TO BE THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING                
AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST US SHORTWAVE WITH THE ETA BEING TO STRONG WITH               
THE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS/ETA HAD PROBLEMS                 
INITIALIZING 850 TEMPERATURE FIELD WITH MODELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS...WITH MODELS GENERALLY BEING A BIT TO WARM AT POINTS                    
UPSTREAM. ALSO PROBLEMS WERE NOTED WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE -12C               
ISOTHERM AT H700...WITH THE ETA NOTICEABLY TO FAR NORTH WITH IT.                
BASED ON ALL THESE PROBLEMS GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE                  
MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WITH THE GFS AFTER THAT AS THE                  
MIDLEVEL FRONT...WHICH ETA WAS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH ALREADY WILL BE             
KEY IN THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM.                                                  
FOR TODAY...PRETTY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY              
AS WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN. WEAK H500                     
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT ONLY A FEW HIGH                
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH IT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS TODAY AS                
STRATUS SHOULD HANG ON MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS AND RUC/ETA             
2M TEMPS REALLY TRY TO WARM THINGS UP TODAY BUT WITH WEAK WINDS                 
MOVING INTO THE AREA AT PEAK HEATING TIME DONT FEEL THAT TEMPS WILL             
MOVE ALOT TODAY AND WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS AS THEY SEEM TO HANDLE            
THESE EVENTS THE BEST. TONIGHT RETURN FLOW SETS UP EARLY ACROSS THE             
WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS UP A BIT IN THE WEST AND RAISED                
NUMBERS A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST. WAS A BIT WORRIED THAT PRECIP MY             
BEGIN IN THE WEST WITH INITIAL BAND OF H700 WAA BUT BASED ON                    
SOUNDINGS DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY TRICKY AS SFC TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE             
AREA. WARMED TEMPS UP CONSIDERABLY AS WAA SETS IN AHEAD OF TROUGH.              
MIXING FULLY FROM H900 WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE 40S EVERYWHERE O                
NEAR 50 SOUTHEAST...BUT DONT THINK WE WILL FULLY MIX SO DIDNT GO                
THAT EXTREME. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EAST                
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL              
PV ANOMALY LINE UP BETTER WITH MIDLEVEL WAA BAND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
SOME H800-700 INSTABILITY SO WONT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SHALLOW              
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. DIDNT MAKE ALOT OF CHANGES TO             
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH                
BUILDS IN BEHIND COLD FRONT. MADE LARGE CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST               
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS 00Z MODELS HAVE CAME IN BRING                  
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER NORTH. BOTH ETA AND GFS IN GOOD             
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BUT GFS MUCH COLDER IN THE LOWER            
LEVELS. BASED ON INITIALIZATION LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH WILL               
GIVE US MOSTLY SNOW. WITH MID AND LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL BAND PRETTY               
STACKED...EXPECT TO SEE A DECENT SNOW BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.            
DECIDED JUST TO GO HIGH CHANCE POPS THOUGH EXCEPT FOR FAR SE...AS               
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A LOT A TROUBLE WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM                  
SYSTEM...AND WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THIS WAVE ENDS UP TRACKING                 
FARTHER NORTH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
625 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS NEEDED. PRIMARILY MVFR                
CIGS THROUGHOUT. EXCEPT AT KFWA BEING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN EDGE OF                
MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED THEM TO MIX OUT TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK            
SHORTWAVE BRINGS CONCERN FOR WDLY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THIS                   
EVENING AT KSBN HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO                  
INCLUDE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST               
AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK                  
RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF                   
PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF              
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME                  
RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST             
AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND            
PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK              
BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR             
SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO               
RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR                    
AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT              
AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH            
AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS            
TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY            
AND PLEASANT.                                                                   
INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT             
MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM                 
FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION               
FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE             
FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT.            
WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR                
NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES.                              
EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO             
FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF              
THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS               
GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW                    
COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK             
ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL              
LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS                
RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE             
ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT            
INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD                
SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI                
AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA                
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS                 
THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER                     
FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD               
OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS               
HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO               
LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT             
ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A             
SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY               
SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL                 
LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS             
THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY              
INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND              
CONTINUES.                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO                
SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE             
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
718 AM CST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
WE HAVE MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD COVER TO REFLECT THE CURRENT              
TRENDS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RISING THETA SURFACES STILL             
BATTLING THE DOWNGLIDE ON THE 280K THETA SURFACE. THE SUN SHOULD                
HELP ERODE THINGS AS THE MORNING WEARS ON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER                 
BEGINS TO WARM.                                                                 
COX                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE                  
REGION TUE NGT THROUGH THU NGT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT QPF               
AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING POTENTIAL                                               
TDAY-TNGT: TDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DRY DAY FOR A FEW DAYS AS OUR                
NEXT WEATHER MAKER DIGS OVER BAJA. CIRRUS WL BE ON THE INCREASE                 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL. THE               
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TNGT AS MOISTURE STARTS TO                  
STREAM NORTH. ISENTROPIC LIFT WL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TNGT WITH              
THE BEST UPGLIDE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. AS 850MB             
JET STRENGTHENS LOOK FOR THE CONVERGENT AREA OF THIS JET TO MAKE ITS            
WAY NORTH THROUGH THE NGT. BECAUSE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AREA STAY JUST SOUTH OF CWA, CHOSE NO TO GO 100            
POPS.  BUT DID UP POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THUNDER WL BE AN OPTION TNGT AS                    
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED.                                           
WED-THU: THE UPPER SYSTEM WL REALLY TAKE ITS TIME WORKING EAST WED              
WHICH WL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO REGION. DO NOT              
THINK PRECIP WL BE CONTINUES WED BUT SHOULD SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS              
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS UPGLIDE IN THE 295-300K LAYER CONTINUES WED               
AND WED NGT. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG SHOWERS              
AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER OVER SE KS WL COME LATER WED NGT INTO THU.            
THIS IS WHEN THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFT OUT. COUPLED               
JET STRUCTURE WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE SHOULD             
ALSO BE A WARM FRONT LAYING GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WHICH              
MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIP. SO WENT 100 POPS FOR THU AS ALL OF CWA                  
SHOULD GET WET.                                                                 
WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE PRECIP (TUE NGT-THU) MAY SEE THE               
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE                   
TURNPIKE. 850MB DPS WL APPROACH THE 10 C MARK WHICH IS VERY MOIST               
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARM FRONT MAY ALSO HELP FOCUS SOME OF               
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE SE PORTION OF CWA. SO ATTM WL GO AHEAD               
AND MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO.                     
PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO THU NGT AS CENTRAL KS IS PLACED IN THE WRAP              
AROUND AREA OF THIS SYSTEM. SO DID BUMP POPS A BIT FOR THIS PERIOD.             
DID KEEP -RASN FOR A FEW COUNTIES OVER CENTRAL KS, BUT DOES NOT LOOK            
LIKE ANYTHING TO GET WORKED UP ABOUT.                                           
FRI-MON:                                                                        
FOUND IT HARD TO IMPROVE ON WHAT PREV FCST HAD GOING, SO ONLY MADE              
MINOR TWEAKS. BY FRI 12Z ALL MED RANGE MODELS AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF             
STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LATEST GFS IS                   
SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER CWA FRI. WL GO WITH THE THINKING               
THAT THIS IS ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF SPREADING LIGHT PRECIP OVER TOO                
MUCH AREA. WITH THIS WL KEEP DRY FOR ENTIRE EXTENDED. SUN AND MON               
SHOULD BE THE BETTER OF THE EXTENDED DAYS AS SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS             
AREA. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO NO MAJOR SWINGS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. SO               
WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAY AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL               
FOR SAT-MON.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA         50  40  49  43 /   0  60  60  60                                
HUTCHINSON      49  39  47  41 /   0  50  60  50                                
NEWTON          49  39  48  42 /   0  50  60  50                                
ELDORADO        50  40  49  43 /   0  60  60  60                                
STROTHER FIELD  51  41  50  44 /   0  70  70  70                                
RUSSELL         46  36  44  34 /   0  50  50  40                                
GREAT BEND      47  37  45  38 /   0  50  50  40                                
SALINA          48  37  47  39 /   0  50  50  40                                
MCPHERSON       48  38  47  40 /   0  50  50  50                                
COFFEYVILLE     54  41  51  47 /   0  80  80  80                                
CHANUTE         51  40  50  44 /   0  70  80  70                                
IOLA            51  39  50  44 /   0  70  80  70                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
7/LAWSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1000 AM EST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                 
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. TWO WELL DEFINED                  
SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM ON 50H/70H ANALYSIS BUT IT IS THE MINOR                     
RIPPLES WITHIN THE ACCELERATED FLOW...COUPLED WITH OUR MOIST AIRMASS            
AND ENHANCEMENT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET THAT ARE             
HELPING PRODUCE RAIN THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST WEST OF              
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED SECONDARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS                 
PARKED ITSELF IN NORTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...ALMOST                   
ALONG INTERSTATE 85...ACTING AS A CONVERGENCE MECHANISM.                        
06Z MODELS...AND LATEST RUC...SUGGEST THE MAIN FRONT BOUNDARY WILL              
NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON. NEITHER TAKES                   
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA BOUNDARY. WILL               
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 50              
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE COUNTIES...THE             
FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH                     
CAROLINA. POPS WERE LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-77            
CORRIDOR...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER UPSTATE PLUS ELBERT...SINCE BETTER             
FORCING WILL MISS THOSE AREAS. BREAKS SHOWING UP ON THE SOUTHERN                
AND EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD STRATOCU FIELD SUGGEST BEST WARMING               
WILL OCCUR THERE.                                                               
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWED A 70H THERMAL TROF ROTATING THROUGH              
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS              
NOT ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE TODAY; ONE HAS TO GO SOUTHWEST TO BMX TO                
FIND LIFTED INDICES BELOW ZERO BUT ONE FEATURE COMMON TO ALL                    
SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WAS A CORE OF 40 TO 50 KT 85H WINDS. WITH A              
LITTLE MIXING LATER TODAY...CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE BREEZY ALONG              
OUR SOUTH AND EAST FLANK. GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND                 
SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROF...WE               
WILL INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDER MENTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THE                
NORTHERN TIER UPSTATE/FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN           
FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THIS UPDATE. RAINFALL FOR TODAY                
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH               
POPS...A QUARTER INCH OF LESS WEST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH            
AND EAST.                                                                       
ONLY CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WAS TO RAISE MAXES TO LOWER 70S FOR OUR             
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES.                                                         
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                               
GSP 68 52 72 52 / 50 30 10 10                                                   
AND 69 52 72 53 / 40 30 10 10                                                   
CLT 69 52 72 52 / 50 20 10 10                                                   
HKY 66 50 70 49 / 50 20 30 30                                                   
AVL 64 48 67 48 / 60 30 30 30                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
227 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
CURRENTLY: SATELLITE IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE             
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE S CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH                  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO NM AND CO...AND LTG DEVELOPING              
ACROSS S AZ. ACROSS THE CWA...LINGERING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...AS WELL AS PERSISTENT               
CLOUD COVER...HAS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS CONSIDERABLY. TEMPS                
ARE FINALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 40S THIS AFTN ACROSS THE E                  
PLAINS...WHILE KCOS IS STRUGGLING TO WARM TO THE FREEZING MARK.                 
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: BOTH ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN                 
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND CONTINUE THE TREND OF DROPPING THE             
WINTER SYSTEM DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF           
AZ TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...S-SW FLOW WILL                
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE UP INTO THE STATE. WHILE THE WINDS ARE                
MORE SW THIS TONIGHT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN JUANS WILL BE             
THE FOCUS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. CAME UP WITH 8-10 INCHES OF NEW                
SNOW IN THE FAVORED AREAS THERE...SO ONGOING SNOW ADVISORY LOOKS                
GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL DRAW THE            
MOISTURE UP WHILE THE TAIL OF A 150 KT JET ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SOME              
DYNAMICS. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT IN CERTAIN AREAS...                   
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT.              
STILL...SCATTERED POPS LOOK GOOD. TOMORROW THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT E...            
AND WHILE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE IN NM...SOUTHERN SECTIONS            
OF THE CWA WILL STILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. HAD TO             
COOL MIN AND MAX T GRIDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO BETTER CORRESPOND              
WITH WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. OVERALL...GENERAL TRENDS OF ONGOING                   
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. \\MOORE//                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                               
PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MAIN FORECAST                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW BOTTOMS OUT OVER NRN MEXICO AND HEADS               
EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH BEST QG FORCING WELL SOUTH OF COLORADO. ENOUGH            
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE ERN              
MTNS AND PLAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY SNOW AS STRONG              
WARM ADVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO            
THE GRIDS...OVERALL THINGS LOOK FINE.                                           
THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ETA LIFT THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY                      
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY...WITH INCREASING QG ASCENT AND LOW                
LEVEL UPSLOPE COMBINING TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE              
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FAR           
SOUTHEAST CORNER AND THEN TAPER THEM OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH               
MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. SUSPECT ENOUGH WARM AIR           
WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW CENTER TO CHANGE PRECIP TO RAIN OVER THE               
PLAINS...WITH SNOW LEVELS CLIMBING OVER THE MTNS AS WELL. COULD SEE             
SOME FAIRLY HIGH QPF TOTALS OVER THE PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE             
AND 700MB LOW WRAP UP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...WHICH WAS HINTED AT BY            
THE 06Z MODELS.                                                                 
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS               
WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MAIN                  
CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS TO END PRECIP A LITTLE SOONER....KEEPING                
JUST SOME LOW POPS OVER THE MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED -SHSN.                 
INCOMING AIR MASS NOT LOOKING VERY COLD...SO WILL NUDGE UP MAX TEMP             
GRIDS JUST SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                       
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST GFS AND VARIOUS OTHER MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS POINT TOWARD A CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN...WITH FAST W-NW              
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT                 
WEEK. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A NICE WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA...               
WITH ANY PRECIP LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE CONT DVD AS A FEW WEAK               
S/W TROUGHS MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS. CURRENT GRIDS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO             
WELL WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE.  --PETERSEN                                  
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT            
FOR TONIGHT FOR EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FEET(ZONE                
68).                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1245 PM EST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SAT PIX AND OBS SHOW BREAKS IN STRATUS ACROSS REGION WITH MVFR CIGS             
IN AND OUT AT KSBN AND  STILL HOLDING AT KFWA. WILL GO WITH A TEMPO             
GROUP THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING HELPING CREATE BREAKS AS LOWER                 
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT AT TIMES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE              
HOWEVER SO BACK TO MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS REMAIN WED  AS             
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHOULD SPREAD AT LEAST              
VFR CIGS ACROSS REGION.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FAR EAST               
AND NORTH TIL 11Z FOR POINT AND CLICK FORECAST WHERE SOME WEAK                  
RETURNS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ISSUANCE TIME. LARGE AREA OF                   
PRIMARILY MVFR SC OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF              
MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA...BUT DID OFFER SOME                  
RESOLUTION/COLLABORATION IN SKY GRIDS WITH NORTH PRIMARILY OVERCAST             
AND FAR SOUTH MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND FRONT AND            
PER MESOETA/RUC ANTICIPATE MINIMUMS PROBABLY AROUND 14Z THEN TRACK              
BACK TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL RISE/FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.             
MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO OPEN/LIFT NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE COLD AIR             
SURGE BEHIND SYSTEM AND DESPITE CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO               
RISE BY 21Z TO NEAR GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS THAT WERE ALL IN FAIR                    
AGREEMENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT              
AND COULD BRING A FEW SPRINKLES BUT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH            
AND CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL SO WILL NOT INCLUDE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
LOTS OF FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS            
TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL              
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY            
AND PLEASANT.                                                                   
INITIAL CONCERNS COME IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH COLD FRONT THAT             
MOVED THROUGH ON TUESDAY BEGINNING TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS WARM                 
FRONT. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR OVERRUNNING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE OHIO                
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GFS FAVORING A WETTER SOLUTION               
FOR THIS AREA. SOME RESERVATIONS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE ETA TAKES THE             
FRONT SINCE THERE IS NO SIG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT.            
WILL KEEP GRIDS AS IS WITH CHC POPS LATE WEDS NGT INTO THURS FOR                
NOW...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING SITES.                              
EVEN TOUGHER CHALLENGE COMES WITH PRECIP CHCS MAINLY THURS NGT INTO             
FRI AND TEMPS THUR-FRI. ALL MODELS NOW KEEPING THE SFC LOW WEST OF              
THE AREA...WITH A STRONG SW FLOW SETTING UP LATE THURS NGT(MODELS               
GENERALLY AGREEING ON 60-70 KT 850 MB JET). THIS STRONG FLOW                    
COMBINED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120+ KT UPR LEVEL JET STREAK             
ALL POINT TOWARDS TOWARDS A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH. RAINFALL              
LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET THURS NGT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THIS                
RAINFALL POSSIBLY BEING ON THE HEAVY SIDE. ETA MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE             
ON BRINGING IN WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREAS LATE THURS NGT            
INTO EARLY FRI AND THINK THIS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO...WHICH WOULD                
SPELL OUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURS NGT INTO FRI                
AM. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 50 IN MOST AREAS...WITH ETA                
PUSHING WELL INTO THE 50S BY FRI AM. WILL KEEP HIGH LIKELY POPS                 
THURS NGT...WITH CAT POPS LOOKING TO BE A GOOD BET IN LATER                     
FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY...WILL HOLD               
OFF ON THUNDER MENTION UNTIL BETTER HANDLE ON MSTR/INSTABILITY IS               
HOPEFULLY ACHIEVED. HAVE ALSO BUMPED BACK MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW TO               
LATE FRIDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES ON MODELS POINT TOWARDS MOST IF NOT             
ALL OF FRI BEING ALL LIQUID. POPS FRI TRICKY AS WELL AS COULD SEE A             
SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WITH PRECIP EARLY THEN DRY               
SLOT WORKING IN AND LINE OF PRECIP AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WILL                 
LEAVE AS CHC FOR NOW. WITH ABOVE NOTED ITEMS...HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS             
THURS THROUGH FRI...BUT STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S EVERYWHERE ON THURS AND POSSIBLY              
INTO THE 60S IN SOME AREAS ON FRIDAY IF SLOWER/MORE WESTERLY TREND              
CONTINUES.                                                                      
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND FRIDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE SAT INTO                
SUNDAY SHOWING TIMING/TRACK CONCERNS. TEMPS BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE             
LEVELS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
205 PM MST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                          
TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT ENHANCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET              
STREAK OVER NEBRASKA WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING OR FROZEN              
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RAIN             
SHIELD COULD CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAWN AS SURFACE TO CLOUD            
LAYER HOVERS AROUND 32F. WIND DIRECTION AT THAT TIME WILL BE SOUTH              
TO SOUTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING COULD BE ENOUGH TO RAISE THE                 
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. TOO CLOSE TO CALL...AND            
ADDED FREEZING RAIN WORDING FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. AREAS OF FOG                
CARRIED AS WELL WITH RUC II FORECASTING LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED             
VISIBILITIES OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.                             
WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE                  
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRY PER ETA QPF                  
FIELDS. CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 40S. WEDNESDAY                            
NIGHT...DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN 500 MB SYSTEM APPROACH FROM               
THE SOUTH. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA                  
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD.            
PRECIPITATION TYPE AFTER MIDNIGHT VERY CHALLENGING. ETABFR SOUNDINGS            
SUGGEST RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW A POSSIBILITY NORTHWEST OF             
A LINE FROM TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK. MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW IN               
YUMA COUNTY. WILL COVER ALL OF THESE BASES IN THE ZONES...AND LEAVE             
TO FUTURE SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE PRECIPITATION TYPE.                              
THURSDAY...ETA AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS COLDER AND WETTER             
WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR               
EASTERN ZONES. FEEL THE GFS OVERDONE AS IT HAS BEEN MOST WINTER AND             
THE ETA WILL VERIFY BETTER. WILL MAKE SOME CONCESSIONS HOWEVER TO               
THE GFS SOLUTION BY DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING POPS IN                
EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION PHASE CONTINUES              
TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND WILL JUST BROADBRUSH WITH RAIN/SNOW EXCEPT FOR            
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE ALL LIQUID SEEMS LIKELY. ANY MIXED                     
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR              
ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.                                            
FRIDAY...ETA 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10C WARMER THAN THE GFS.               
COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SNOW COVER              
IN THE EAST AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WEST. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS              
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL QUICKLY ACT TO MELT THE SNOW HOWEVER.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                         
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRY TO BACKDOOR COOLER AIR INTO THE              
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM                   
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...MUCH COOLER THAN THE            
ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. THUS PREFER               
HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN MEX GUIDANCE ON                  
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL INDUCE LEE SIDE TROUGHING             
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE                 
FORECAST AREA. OPERATIONAL GFS 850 TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER             
TEENS. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S FOR ALL LOCATIONS...AND             
THINK DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL ADD AT LEAST A FEW MORE DEGREES. UPPER             
PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS WEST COAST RIDGE BUILDS                
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD            
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CLUSTERING            
AROUND THE 850 MB 5C ISOTHERM OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND WILL USE              
THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OF LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. RIDGE AXIS WILL                    
APPROACH THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND              
DRY CONDITIONS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
345 PM CST TUE MAR 2 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF WAVES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE            
NEXT 60 HOURS. STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE              
SOUTHERN CA COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO                    
TOMORROW. DESPITE IT BEING SO FAR AWAY WE'LL SOON BEGIN TO FEEL ITS             
EFFECTS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER REGION                 
TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONG            
UPGLIDE PER 290K/295K SURFACES WILL PROVIDE BASIS FOR AN EXPANDING              
AREA OF RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY               
AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MO RIVER BY DAYBREAK. SHEAR LOBE                  
MOVING THROUGH OK LATE TONIGHT WILL HELP SUPPORT RAIN BAND. RAIN HAS            
ALREADY SPREAD THROUGH WESTERN OK AND IS SPREADING NORTHEAST. 12Z               
ETA/AVN/CANADIAN MODELS ALL SIMILAR IN TIMING OF THIS FIRST WAVE.               
18Z META QPF LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN LACK OF DEEP MOIST LAYER.                 
DON'T EXPECT TO SEE IT RAIN ALL DAY TOMORROW BUT MORNING HOURS WILL             
HAVE HIGHEST POPS. WILL BACK OFF POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
HOURS AS ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE PROGGED BY THE ETA MODEL SHUTS THE                
DOOR ON MEASURABLE RAIN EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL LEAVE            
TOKEN LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS                 
SPRINKLES COULD FALL JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AND HAVE BLENDED IN WITH               
SURROUNDING OFFICES. WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT                   
OPTIMISTIC GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN/EAST WINDS BUT ALREADY WENT UNDER                  
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ETA AND AVN ON EJECTING CLOSED LOW OUT OF             
OLD MEXICO. AVN DEEPER/STRONGER BUT FASTER AND FURTHER EAST. PREFER             
SLOWER AND MORE WESTERN ETA. HOWEVER...MAIN EFFECT ON SENSIBLE                  
WEATHER THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS MINIMAL AS BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN A               
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENCE OVER CWA. GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE             
WIDE OPEN AND WILL POUR MOISTURE NORTHWARD. EXPECT TO SEE VERY                  
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP ALONG WARM                
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND                 
STORMS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH IN                 
RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL STORM EJECTING NORTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER            
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY                
RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TRAINING OF STORMS A DISTINCT                  
POSSIBILITY. PRIMARY HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF A KANSAS            
CITY TO MACON LINE...BUT CERTAINTY A BIT IN QUESTION AS ANY                     
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH COULD ROB THE INFLOW OF DEEPER                
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. RAIN AND THUNDER SHOULD SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY            
THURSDAY EVENING BUT WILL HOLD ONTO RELATIVELY HIGH CHANCE POPS.                
MJ                                                                              
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY                
FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT NORTHERN                    
MISSOURI WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE THE END OF THE EVENT. THE              
GFS IS THE COLDER SOLUTION...WITH SUB-ZERO 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY               
(IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE). THE ETA IS WARMER...AND HAS THE 850 MB               
ZERO DEGREE TEMP CONTOUR STRADDLING THE MISSOURI-IOWA BORDER                    
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE MIXED PRECIP AREA TO                  
INCLUDE AREAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY                        
136...EXPECTING A CHANCE FOR A MIXED BOUT OF PRECIP AS THE 850 MB               
COLD POOL MOVES OVER ON FRIDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR                 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.                                                     
LS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION                                                                
255 AM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AND              
THE THREAT OF A MAJOR PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THURSDAY. LATEST                  
MOISTURE IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTH                
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS SIMILAR IN DROPPING THE            
SYSTEM INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF              
WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT                  
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.             
PREFER SLIGHTLY FASTER AVN WITH THE INITIATION OF WEAK WARM                     
ADVECTION PATTERN NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT                  
GENERALLY FOUND ON THE 290-295K ISENTROPIC SURFACES AND CONFINED TO             
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THESE SURFACES CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY               
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...ALBEIT NOT TOO                   
STRONG. AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. HAVE SOME               
CONCERN THAT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY                 
CONCENTRATE ISENTROPIC LIFT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONCENTRATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THAT AREA.             
PREFER ETA WITH THIS SCENARIO AS BELIEVE AVN A LITTLE TOO BULLISH               
WITH DEPICTION OF STRONG QPF IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...BY                
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED             
INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY ETA...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                            
MAIN CONCERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST               
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.               
A LITTLE TOO SOON ON PARTICULARS ON EXACT TRACK...BUT BOTH ETA/GFS              
TRACK STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY             
EVENING WITH COPIOUS H8 MOISTURE. BASED ON TRACK OF UPPER LEVEL                 
LOW...PREFER SURFACE LOW TRACK OF GFS WITH THE SURFACE LOW FROM                 
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO                
EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE                      
COMBINATION OF STRONG QG FORCING...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH              
OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5             
INCHES MAY LEAD TO A POTENTIAL HYDRO PROBLEM. AT THIS TIME...FEEL               
BEST THREAT IS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL ISSUE             
AN ESF FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AREA COULD EASILY            
RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 12 HOURS WITH WOULD EXCEED HEADWATER                   
GUIDANCE. AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON LATER DATA.                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH                 
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EDGE NORTHEAST TODAY...ONLY TO               
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.                                             
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
320 PM...                                                                       
GETTING RID OF ONE SYSTEM AND GEARING UP FOR THE NEXT. DEEP UPPER               
LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL IA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH LOW              
LEVEL GRADIENT WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS LATER            
THIS EVENING. FROM NOW TILL MID EVENING THE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER            
STRONG AND GUSTY. LOW CLOUDS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAP             
AROUND CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB COLD POOL WILL LIFT NORTHEAST              
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...A LOWER DECK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST BY THE            
RUC AND ETA 925MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS TO SURGE SOUTH            
AT THE SAME TIME THE STRATOCU IS LIFTING NORTHEAST. NET EFFECT...MAY            
SEE SOME CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY             
36 BUT LOWER DECK FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...REACHING              
THE MO RIVER BY 12Z TUE. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF/SHIFT EAST BY               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ETA/MAV MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.                    
ALTHOUGH NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED              
TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                 
TRANSPORTS INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.            
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR                 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS WEAK VORTICITY LOBE SHEARS NORTHEAST.                     
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON WEDNESDAY THEY            
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAIN IN            
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE WELL NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM            
FRONT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE              
ALSO TIGHTENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS CLOUDS/RAIN KEEP                
READINGS WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.                                            
MJ                                                                              
A SOGGY FINISH TO THE WORK-WEEK IS FORECAST...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS            
CONTINUE TO PROG THE EJECTION OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. EXPECT              
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND              
NIGHT...AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE               
FRONT TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONVECTION IS ALSO            
LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...AIDED BY                  
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES WITH THIS             
SHORTWAVE APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE              
EXCEPTION OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN EXTREME NORTHERN               
MISSOURI ON THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT. HAVE                    
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT              
LOWS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT CLOUD              
COVER AND DEW POINTS MAY PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT.                  
LS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo