000
FGUS74 KLZK 162027
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-171200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
225 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006

...HEAVY RAIN BRINGS SHORT TERM RELIEF TO AREAS OF ARKANSAS...

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN ARKANSAS 
DURING THE PAST WEEK...BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THAT PART OF THE 
STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NEAR FOUR INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THE 
HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN FELL FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT SMITH TO EAST OF 
MOUNTAIN HOME.

RIVER LEVELS SHOWED DRASTIC IMPROVEMENTS IN AND AROUND THIS AREA... 
THOUGH IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW LONG THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL LAST IF 
RAIN DOES NOT CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DESPITE 
THE RAIN...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS SEVERELY DEPLETED TO A DEPTH OF 
SEVERAL FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.  

WITH LA NINA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY SUMMER...AND 
POSSIBLY LONGER...RAINFALL THROUGH SPRING MAY BE BELOW NORMAL.

.DROUGHT MONITOR...THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS THE 
RAINFALL OF THE PAST WEEK HAS HELPED EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS 
AREAS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A SMALL ARE OF D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/ DROUGHT 
REMAINS NEAR POLK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WHILE A SLIVER 
OF D3 /EXTREME/ DROUGHT CONTINUES ALONG THE ARKANSAS-OKLAHOMA 
BORDER. D1 /MODERATE/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF A 
LINE FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO NEAR JONESBORO. RECENTLY...A LACK IN 
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HAS BROUGHT ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS 
/D0/ BACK.

THE DROUGHT MONITOR CAN BE VIEWED ONLINE AT WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. 
IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC 
PARTNERS. THESE INCLUDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...THE NOAA 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...THE  
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE UNITED STATES 
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND SEVERAL 
OTHER PARTICIPANTS.

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY AT 9 AM. THE DATA CUTOFF 
FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS 7 AM TUESDAY. THIS MEANS ANY RAIN WHICH 
FALLS AFTER 7 AM TUESDAY WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THAT WEEKS 
MONITOR...BUT RATHER THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT DEPICTED ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. 
THEY INCLUDE D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT...D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT...D3 - 
EXTREME DROUGHT...AND D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.

.CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS NORTHERN 
ARKANSAS DURING THE PAST WEEK...BRINGING AS MUCH AS FOUR INCHES OF 
RAIN TO THAT AREA OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...LONG TERM RAINFALL 
DEFICITS REMAIN SIGNIFICANT...AND ARE GREATER THAN 12 INCHES ACROSS 
MANY AREAS OF ARKANSAS.

LOOKING AT RAINFALL DATA FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS...IT HAS BEEN 
RELATIVELY WET ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARKANSAS...WHILE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE HAVE RECEIVED BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL 
RAINFALL.

.IMPACTS...THE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS HELPED RIVERS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE REBOUND FROM EXCEPTIONALLY LOW 
LEVELS. ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...MOST OF 
THE RIVERS NORTH OF A MENA TO MEMPHIS LINE ARE NOW IN IN THE 
/NORMAL/ TO /WET/ CATEGORIES. THE LAST 30 DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND RIVER GAUGES ARE REFLECTING THAT.  
MANY OF THOSE GAUGES ARE IN THE LOWEST 10TH PERCENTILE OR LOWER.

EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF ARKANSAS HAS EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN 
DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN SEVERELY 
DEPLETED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR NEARLY A YEAR NOW ACROSS 
ARKANSAS...AND THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS HAS CAUSED THE SOILS 
ACROSS THE STATE TO DRY TO SIGNIFICANT DEPTHS...NOT JUST INCHES BUT 
SEVERAL FEET BELOW THE GROUND. A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD OF SEVERAL 
MONTHS WILL BE REQUIRED TO FULLY REPLENISH THE MOISTURE IN THE 
GROUND.

DESPITE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...THE 
WILDFIRE DANGER REMAINS. ACCORDING TO THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY 
COMMISSION...ALL BUT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE 
TO HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER. TEN COUNTIES HAD BURN BANS IN PLACE... 
MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CORNERS OF THE STATE.

.FORECAST...A RATHER WET WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE MID-SECTION OF THE UNITED STATES. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL 
REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WIDE AREA OF 
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE 
DAKOTAS SOUTH...ALL THE WAY TO LOUISIANA.  

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS 
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE 
A DEFINITE REDUCTION IN THE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...THOUGH 
THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN.

THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPDATED THE THREE MONTH 
OUTLOOK FOR THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE TIME PERIOD. IT SHOWS THERE IS AN 
INCREASED CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 
HALF OF ARKANSAS...WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF.
 
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CALLS FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE 
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STATEWIDE FOR THE APRIL THROUGH JUNE 
PERIOD.

LA NINA CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...AND ARE EXPECTED 
TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT THREE TO SIX MONTH. WHILE THE WEATHER 
PATTERN HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WET ACROSS ARKANSAS LATELY...AND APPEARS 
IT WILL BE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK...A MORE TYPICAL LA NINA 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.

HISTORICALLY...WHEN LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT DURING APRIL 
THROUGH JUNE...MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EXPERIENCES BELOW AVERAGE 
PRECIPITATION.

THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPDATED THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK 
...VALID FOR THE PERIOD APRIL THROUGH JUNE. IT SHOWS THAT WHILE SOME 
INITIAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE LIKELY...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.

RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING SOME ALLEVIATION TO 
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS. HOWEVER...FOR 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO BE THOROUGHLY REMOVED...A WEATHER PATTERN OF 
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SEVERAL MONTHS WILL BE REQUIRED.  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR...MEANING DROUGHT 
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS SUMMER APPROACHES.

&&

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON MAR 30 2006.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WEB...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/HTML/DROUGHT05.HTM

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS MAY BE DIRECTED TO...

PAUL INIGUEZ 
METEOROLOGIST/ASST. CLIMATE FOCAL POINT 
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR 
501-834-0308 
PAUL.INIGUEZ@NOAA.GOV 

$$

INIGUEZ