AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
947 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
MAIN CONCERNS FOR EVE UPDATE WL BE PCPN TRENDS OVNGT AND WNDS TMRW.             
MDLS SEEM TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN TRENDS WITH THERMODYNAMIC AND             
KINEMATIC FORCING INCRG TNGT.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN EXPANDING                
ACRS SD AND MN WHICH SEEMS TO BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY ISENT LIFT ATTM.              
00Z RUC RELFECTS THIS TREND WELL WITH 295-205K ISENT LYR SHOWING UVM            
PERSISTANT OVR IA TIL ARND 12Z.  HWVR MSTR LTD AND CONDENSATION PRES            
DEFICITS ARE AOB 50MB ONLY ACRS NRN IA SO CURRENT FCST TRENDS OF                
HIGHER POPS N AND LOWER S SEEM FINE.  CIGS STILL AOA 6500 FT AT 02Z.            
BEST WND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ACRS MN SUN AND QUESTION IS WHETHER              
THEY WL BE STG ENOUGH ACRS NRN IA TO ISSUE ADVY.  18Z ETA/AVN                   
ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS AND SFC PRES GRADIENT MAX CROSS MN DRNG PEAK               
HEATING AND MIXING POTENTIAL...WITH AVN BEING A BIT FARTHER N.  ETA             
BUFR MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WNDS JUST BARELY GETTING TO ADVY                
CRITERIA (30 MPH SUSTAIN FOR HR OR ANY GUST 45 MPH) ROUGHLY ALG AND             
N HIGHWAY 20.  HWVR QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/NGM SUGGEST SYS NOT QUITE             
AS POTENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS.  THUS WL JUST HIT WORDING HARD AS PER               
CURRENT FCST WITHOUT ADVY.                                                      
01Z SFC ANLYS PLACES INITIAL LOW BTWN KONL-KODX WITH WRMFNT EWD ACRS            
IA/MN BORDER.  MUCH OF SGFNT COOLING STILL ACRS MT.  OBS UPSTREAM               
WOULD SUGGEST CURENT MINS TOO COOL CONSIDERING CLD COVER SO WL RAISE            
LOWS A CATEGORY MAINLY NRN HLF.  OTHERWISE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO            
SKY COVER S TO FIT CURRENT WX.                                                  
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1050 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
3-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS SEEN SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON               
THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE THIS EVENING... AHEAD OF VIGOROUS                   
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A RATHER LARGE            
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP HAS SET UP ACROSS MN AND WI WHERE                
LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS (<30 MB) ARE PRESENT. THESE                
LOWER CPD/S ARE PROGGED BY THE RUC TO SPREAD NE OVERNIGHT...                    
CLIPPING THE NRN GRR CWFA.                                                      
EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST THE NRN 2/3RDS OF            
THE CWFA OVERNIGHT... WITH LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY SKIRTING FAR NRN                 
PORTIONS AFTER 3 AM. THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ON THE 00Z               
SOUNDINGS...SO IT MAY TAKE WHILE FOR THE UPSTREAM PRECIP TO ARRIVE              
AND START REACHING THE GROUND. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A FAIRLY GOOD               
HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND GENERALLY JUST SOME MINOR WORDING                   
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.                                             
MEADE                                                                           
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TIMING/COVERAGE.                          
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED DEVELOPING TROF OVER THE NRN              
PLAINS AS IMPRESSIVE 150 KT H25 JET PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM               
WRN CANADA. STRONG SHRTWV ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET WAS ALSO MOVING             
SE TOWARD WRN ND. H25 JET ALSO PRESENT TO THE NORTH FROM N OF LK                
SUPERIOR TO SE CANDA. IR LOOP SHOWED COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH                    
BAROCLINIC LEAF UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WHILE AREA OF -RA             
OVER SRN HLF OF MN CONTINUED TO EXPAND ENE INTO WRN WI. SUPPORT FOR             
VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION DEVELOP WITH ELEMENTS TYPICAL OF A STRONG                
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...INCLUDING UPR LVL DIV FROM JET RIGHT                        
ENTRANCE...STRONG LOW/MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND 295K-300K ISENTROPIC            
LIFT. LIFT COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING               
INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH PCPN OVER ALL OF THE               
CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH PCPN EXPANDING            
OVER AREA MAINLY BTWN 06Z-09Z. THICKENING CLOUDS AND INCREASING WAA             
WILL BRING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS.                                       
.MQT...HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ001>003-009 LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT.                  
       HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ004>007 SUN NIGHT.                                    
       STORM WRNG W HALF LK SUP LATE SUN AFTN.                                  
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW BROAD UPR TROF ACRS SRN              
CAN AND THE NRN CONUS. THE SHRTWV THAT CAUSED HVY RA AND SOME SVR               
TSRA YDAY IS NOW MOVG QUICKLY THRU SE CAN WITH RATHER FLAT SFC                  
RDGING BLDG INTO THE NW GRT LKS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS. LOCAL 12Z              
SDNGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE LLVL MSTR TRAPPED UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN                
ARND H8-85...AND PLENTY OF SC NOTED OVR CWA AS SUNSHINE HAS MIXED               
OUT THIS MSTR. BUT THIS CLD NOW DSPTG AS ACYC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH              
RDG MOVG OVHD. A WEAK SHRTWV APPEARS OVR THE NRN PLAINS WITH SOME               
GENERALLY LO AND HI CLD...BUT DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLVLS PER THE BIS              
SDNG HAS RESTRICTED DEEP CLD/PCPN. HI CLD APRCHG WRN ZNS NOW. A MORE            
POTENT SHRTWV NOTED DIGGING SE OVR SW CAN ON THE W SIDE OF UPR TROF.            
160KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX OVR BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS POWERHOUSE SHRTWV. BOTH AVN AND ETA ANAL H3 WIND FIELD OVR SW              
CAN SHOW VERY GOOD INITIALIZATION ON THIS JET MAX. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS             
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS IS RELATIVELY MOIST...ABSOLUTE MSTR LIMITED              
WITH PWAT AOB 0.50 INCH IN THE PLAINS.                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE IMPACT OF VERY STRG SHRTWV                  
PROGGED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN GRT LKS ON SUN...                 
PARTICULARLY WNDS/WAVES/PCPN TYPE. PREFER AVN GUIDANCE THRU F36 AS              
ITS SOLN OF DEEPER SFC LO INTENSIFICATION THRU F24 MORE CONSISTENT              
WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND STRG JET MAX NOTED OVER BRITISH                    
COLUMBIA THIS MRNG.                                                             
RELATIVELY QUIET PD EARLY TNGT WITH SFC RDGING MOVG THRU CWA. BUT               
MODEL INDICATES 998MB SFC LO REACHING NR DLH BY 12Z SUN...WITH                  
CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 300K SFC (ABOUT H7) AFTR 06Z              
IN STRG SSWLY FLOW AHD OF SYS. CWA ALSO FCST IN LEFT EXIT OF                    
SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX...WITH DEEP H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H4-2 DVGC/                
H85-7 FRONTOGEN AS WELL. THIS FCST SUPPORTS CATEGORICAL WORDING                 
SHOWN BY NGM/ETA/AVN MOS. SO WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST SHOWING PCPN                
DVLPG ACRS CWA AFTR MIDNIGHT. LO TEMPS WL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY BEFORE             
CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT DVLPS LATER.                                       
AVN SHOWS SFC LO MOVG FM NW WI THRU WRN CWA AND TO FAR ERN LK SUP BY            
00Z WITH SFC LO DEEPENING TO 995MB. DURG SAT NGT...THIS LO SHIFTS NE            
TO JAMES BAY WHILE DEEPENING TO 993MB. SINCE LOWEST H5 HGT/VORT MAX             
FCST TO LIFT NE JUST NW OF CWA...XPCT DRY SLOTTING TO IMPACT CWA                
AFTR MID MRNG SAT. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SHARP CYC FLOW FCST AND             
RESIDUAL LLVL MSTR SHUD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE LO CLD COVER EVEN AFTR            
DEEP MSTR/LYRD CLD/STEADY RA EXIT IN THE MRNG. ALTHOUGH EXIT OF DEEP            
MSTR WL CAUSE STEADY PCPN TO END IN THE MRNG...SAME CYC FLOW/                   
ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR WL MAINTAIN SCT-NMRS SHRA...ESPECIALLY WHEN AVN              
SHOWS DEEPER WRAP ARND H85-5 MSTR IN COMMA HEAD OF SHRTWV                       
REENVELOPING CWA DURG THE AFTN AND SPRDG E OVR ERN ZNS SAT EVNG.                
HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF TSRA NR LEADING EDGE OF DRY SLOT DUE TO              
VIGOROUS DYNAMICS...BUT SPC FCST INDICATES SVR TSRA CHC MINIMAL WITH            
ABSOLUTE MSTR LIMITED. ONCE COMMA TAIL/SFC COLD FNT PASS W TO E DURG            
THE DAY ON SUN...STRG WNDS ABV THE SURFACE WL BE BEGIN MIXING TO THE            
GRND. AVN INDICATES H85 WNDS WL INCRS ARND 50KTS OVR WRN LK SUP DURG            
THE AFTN AS TIGHT CYC FLOW ENVELOPS THAT AREA. SHARP PRES RISE MAX              
IN WAKE OF SFC LO (AVN SHOWS 14MB/6HR PRES RISE) WL ENHANCE STRG                
WNDS. EVALUATION OF HI WND CHKLIST WITH AVN FCST DATA SUGS GOING HI             
WIND WATCH OVR LK SUP BORDER ZNS IS WARRANTED LATE SUN/SUN NGT AS               
SHARP CYC FLOW SPRDS E DURG THE EVNG INTO ERN ZNS. WL REFRAIN FM                
WATCH IN MORE PROTECTED SCNTRL ZNS...BUT THINK HI WIND ADVY WL BE               
NECESSARY EVEN THERE. WNDS WL DIMINISH W TO E SUN NGT AS SHARPER CYC            
FLOW PROGRESSES STEADILY E WITH SFC LO AND IN ADVANCE OF APRCHG SFC             
RDG.                                                                            
PCPN TYPE CONCERNS STARTING TMRW EVNG OVR THE W WITHIN COMMA HEAD               
MSTR AS AVN FCST H100-85 THKNS DROPS TOWARD 1300M (H85 TEMP NR -5C              
COMPARED TO WRN LK TEMP 10C). ALTHOUGH QVECTOR CNVGC/UPR DVGC EXIT              
BEFORE REALLY COLD AIR ARRIVES...SHARP CYC FLOW MAY ACT AS                      
ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM INTO THE OVRNGT BEFORE HI PRES RDG APRCHG FM              
THE W LATE DIMINISHES THE FLOW. ETA FCST SDNGS/PCP TYPE SUGS LLVL               
WRMG RELATED TO THE LK WL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORM OF RA XCPT OVR ALL              
BUT THE HIER TERRAIN IN THE W AND NCNTRL. SOME SLUSHY ACCUM                     
LIKELY...WL LIMIT MENTION UP TO 2 INCHES ON GRASSY SFCS OVR HIER                
TERRAIN DUE TO RATHER SHORT DURATION OF DEEPER MSTR AND RATHER WARM             
GRND/FCST NR SFC TEMPS. HI WNDS WL BLOW LK EFFECT MODERATION/CLD/               
PCPN FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL...BUT SHUD LIMIT PCPN/SN OVR THE                
KEWEENAW.                                                                       
XPCT LINGERING PCPN TO END LATE SUN NGT/MON MRNG W-E AS QUICK MOVG              
SFC RDG AND SOMEWHAT DRIER LLVL AIR ARRIVE UNDER RISING H5 HGTS.                
THERE WL BE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DURG THE DAY AS FLOW BCMS                 
SHARP ACYC AND MORE WLY FOLLOWING DEPARATURE OF H85 THERMAL TROF.               
CLRG WL BE SLOWER OVR THE KEWEENAW AND THE FAR E. CLRG WL BE SHORT              
LIVED AS NXT QUICK MOVG...BUT MUCH WEAKER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WAD             
PATTERN APRCH FM THE W EARLY MON NGT. EXPCT THICKENING CLDS MON EVNG            
FOLLOWED BY A CHC OF RA OVRNGT. LLVL DRY AIR AND LACK OF JET                    
DYNAMICS/UPR DVGC WL LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY...BUT DRY AIR IN THE LLVLS            
SUG PCPN MAY BE MIXED WITH SN AT LEAST MON NGT PER ETA PCPN TYPE                
FCST. BEST DYNAMICS EXIT BY TUE MRNG...BUT LINGERING CYC FLOW AND               
MSTR SUPPORT GOING CHC POPS FOR RA WITH DRY AIR GONE.                           
00Z EXTENDED MODELS ACTIVE WX PATTERN INTO MID WEEK GRDLY SETTLING              
DOWN AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE W COAST AND UPR HGTS RISE IN THE E             
BY LATE THIS COMING WEEK. LAST IN THE SERIES OF SGNFT SHRTWVS                   
PROGGED TO PASS TUE...THEN RISING UPR HGTS LEAD TO EXPANDING HI PRES            
CENTER OVR ERN NAMERICA. MRF SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV RIPPLING               
THRU MORE ZONAL FLOW WED/THU...BUT OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE                 
WEAKER WITH SYS AND MAINTAIN A STRGR HI PRES RDG. GIVEN LARGE SCALE             
TRENDS AND WEAK SUPPORT FM MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR OPERATIONAL                    
SOLN...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW MAJORITY WEAKER FCST AND HAVE REMOVED               
PCPN CHCS FOR THU THAT APPEARED IN PREVIOUS FCST. ALTHOUGH MRF/ECMWF            
HINT AT FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG ACRS SCNTRL CAN IN FRI/SAT                      
TIMEFRAME... LOOKS LIKE MSTR WL BE SO LIMITED WITH HI PRES RDG ACRS             
THE SRN CONUS CUTTING OFF GLFMEX INFLOW THAT ASSOCIATED WEAKENING               
COLD FNT MOVG INTO RISING HGTS REGIME WL BE HARD PRESSED TO GENERATE            
ANY PCPN OVR CWA NXT SAT. SO REMOVED PCPN CHCS FOR FRI. TEMPS WL                
SHOW A WRMG TREND BY LATE WEEK UNDER BLDG RDG DESPITE SOME HI                   
CLDS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AOA MRF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS AFTR WED.                
POPS GENERALLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE.                                                
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ001>003-009 LATE SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT.                  
       HIGH WIND WATCH MIZ004>007 SUN NIGHT.                                    
       STORM WRNG W HALF LK SUP LATE SUN AFTN.                                  
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
850 PM MDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AND STATE                                         
.SHORT TERM...MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THE                 
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LATEST RUC/ETA STILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE                     
TRACKING SE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IN LINE WITH TRENDS OF               
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND AND ALSO LOOKING AT LATEST QPF           
CHARTS FROM ETA/MESOETA/RUC WILL EXPAND THIS EVENINGS MENTION OF                
PRECIPITATION THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCAL RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW             
RELATIVELY STRONGER ECHOES OVER THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL            
MT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS THERE. LWT APPROACHING FORECAST              
LOW SO WILL LOWER THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT             
THEM FROM GETTING REALLY COLD. BLANK                                            
.EXTENDED...MODELS START OFF SIMILARLY WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUE NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE SOME               
DOWNSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS SO LIKE WITH YESTERDAYS FORECAST WILL                 
CONFINE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE WRN MOUNTAINS AND SW VALLEYS.            
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA ON THU FOR DRY                 
CONDITIONS. 12Z FRI ECMWF RUN AND 00Z SAT AVN RUN DIVERGED WITH AN              
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WRN CANADA/NW U.S. COAST ON WED. ECMWF             
RUN SPLIT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE PORTION MOVING THROUGH CANADA               
AND ANOTHER PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER FAR SW              
OREGON BY 12Z FRI. AVN RUN DID NOT INDICATE NEARLY AS MUCH SPLITTING            
AND WAS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF.             
12Z SAT RUN OF THE UKMET HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH AN                
UPPER LOW OVER FAR NW CA BY 12Z FRI. LATEST 12Z AVN RUN IS NOW MUCH             
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW                
COAST AT 12Z THU. THUS EXPECT UPSLOPE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO                
DEVELOP FRI AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. HARD TO SAY WHAT               
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THOUGH. WILL BROADBRUSH 20 PCT             
POPS OVER THE PLAINS WITH A LITTLE HIGHER POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.               
BLANK                                                                           
.CCF NUMBERS                                                                    
GTF EE 032/064 049/060 036 14300                                                
    BBEBB 058/040 060/040 060/035 052/035 052 22111112222                       
CTB EE 030/062 046/059 035 14200                                                
    BBEBB 056/036 056/036 056/030 050/030 050 21111112222                       
HLN EB 037/064 041/062 036 14310                                                
    BBBEE 062/039 062/037 062/035 054/035 054 12121112222                       
BZN EB 035/061 037/060 031 14320                                                
    BBBEE 058/034 060/032 061/030 055/030 055 11121112222                       
WEY EB 032/054 030/053 026 14220                                                
    BBBEE 053/028 054/026 055/028 049/028 049 11141113333                       
DLN EB 038/060 039/059 033 14210                                                
    BBBEE 056/034 058/034 058/033 055/033 055 11121112222                       
HVR EE 030/063 045/062 035 14200                                                
    BBEBB 060/036 063/036 065/035 054/035 054 21111112222                       
LWT EB 030/060 043/058 034 14300                                                
    BBBBB 058/035 058/035 060/034 051/034 051 12111112222                       
.TFX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
940 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
WILL ISSUE WIND ADVZY FOR NERN 4 COUNTIES MOMENTARILY. NEW HIGH RES             
ETA AS WELL AS RUC PAINTING 30KT+ H925 WINDS BEGINNING AT 09Z AND               
CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z. H85 WINDS APPROACH 50KT BY                              
12Z...LUCKILY...DUE TO TIMING...SHOULDN'T MIX ANY WHERE NEAR THIS.              
WILL WORD NERN ZONES 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. ADVY WILL RUN               
THROUGH THE AM HOURS ENDING AT NOON. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END               
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS GOOD H7 OMEGA FIELD MOVES EWD...AND SFC TROF PASSES            
EAST.                                                                           
COORDINATED WITH OAX.                                                           
.LBF...WIND ADVZY THROUGH NOON CST SUNDAY NEZ007-010-028-029.                   
CLB                                                                             
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
323 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE WINDS SUNDAY...                                     
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING A SFC TROUGH FROM ERN WYOMING INTO ERN CO.             
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF                    
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS IN THE             
NORTHEAST WITH 18Z RUN NOW A BIT MORE BULLISH ON QPFS.                          
CONCERN FOR WIND ADVY FOR THE EAST SATURDAY AS H85 WINDS REACH                  
AROUND 45 KTS 12 TO 15Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NOT ISSUE BASED ON MARGINAL             
PARAMETERS AND BRIEF HIGHER WINDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES QUICKLY            
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE                
LOWER 50S NORTHEAST AS H85 TEMPS STRUGGLE ABOVE 0C. LOWER 60S                   
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT ONLY LOOK TO REACH LOWER 30S AS RETURN                
SRLY FLOW AND SFC HIGH CENTER WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND SOME CLOUD              
COVER LIMIT COOLING.                                                            
NICE WARMUP MONDAY AS SFC TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWFA AND H85              
TEMPS RANGE FROM 14C TO 17C AND WESTERLIES PUSH HIGHS TO AROUND 70.             
MONDAY NIGHT...A CLOD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN                
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS NOT AS COOL IN THE UPPER 30S.                          
COOLER WITH LINGERING CLOUDINESS TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC                
HIGH BUILD IN. TEMPS SHOULD DROP 7 TO 10 DEGREES FROM MONDAY HIGHS.             
EXTENDED... WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NOT ENOUGH             
MOISTURE LIKELY TO BRING ANY CHC OF SHOWERS. A RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL            
BRING HIGH TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WARMER THU FRI IN ADVANCE OF ERN            
PAC H5 TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST BY 00Z FRI. 12Z GFS             
IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH WITH CLOSE TIME WITH 00Z RUN WHICH                    
EVENTUALLY DROP THE UPPER LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY               
NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AS SFC FRONT             
SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH FROM SW KS INTO NERN KS.                                   
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
KAR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
847 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE ENTERING EXTREME NORTHEAST                
MONTANA AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 50KTS. SURFACE                        
OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN DOES SHOW SOME SNOW FALLING             
OVER THAT REGION. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS                
AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. GOOD DEWPOINT GRADIENT              
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE RIDGE OF               
HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXITS.                                                      
.OVERNIGHT...                                                                   
MAIN CONCERN IS BEING ABLE TO MEET CRITERIA FOR WINTER WEATHER                  
ADVISORY TONIGHT. MAIN ENERGY AND AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO              
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE LAYER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR                     
PRECIPITATION TO FALL MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  ONE NOTE IS THE              
LATEST RUC IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH SYSTEM AND IS DOING A             
LITTLE BETTER WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED NATURE OF SYSTEM. DO EXPECT            
SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TO MIX OR POSSIBLY              
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A TIME.  BELIEVE MAIN CONCERN IN ADVISORY               
AREA WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF WET ROADWAYS BECOMING ICY BY SUNDAY             
MORNING. WITH THESE ICY CONDITIONS BEING THE FIRST OF THE                       
SEASON...INTITIAL THINKING IS TO KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY                   
INTACT. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS                     
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR THE REST OF               
THE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND ISSUE             
NEW ZONES BY 10 PM.                                                             
.FGF...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHERN ZONES AND WIND ADVISORY                 
SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.                           
DONAVON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1030 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
NO MAJOR CHGS ON ZFP UPDATE. WILL MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS BUT            
IN GENERAL EXPECT W-SW WINDS ARND 10 MPH. TEMPS LOOK OK WITH MAX                
TEMPS FM NR 90 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 80S ON THE CST. PTCLDY SKIES              
SHUD SUFFICE WITH PLENTY OF AMS MSTR UP TO ABT 700 MB. MODIFIED 12Z             
CHS SNDNG INDICATED SOME MDT INSTABILITY WITH SFC BASED LI'S FROM -3            
TO -4 AND CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1300 J/KG. MAY INCLUDE LOW POPS             
FOR ENTIRE AREA WITH ISOLD SHRA PSBLE ALG AFTN SEABREEZE. WILL                  
HEADLINE CSTL ZONES WITH SHALLOW CSTL FLOODING PSBLTYS ARND THIS                
EVE'S HIGH TIDE.                                                                
MARINE...THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO ADJUST WIND                    
DIRECTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE SEA-BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE             
LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA MASS FIELDS SUGGEST A DECENT SEA BREEZE                 
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING              
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER 80S WATER               
TEMPERATURES AND INLAND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER            
80S TO NEAR 90.                                                                 
TIDES...TIDES RAN ABOUT 0.2-0.3 FT ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES WITH HIGH             
TIDE THIS MORNING AND EXPECT SIMILAR DEPARTURES IF NOT SLIGHTLY                 
HIGHER WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. THIS SHOULD PUSH TIDE LEVELS              
ABOVE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA. TIDE LEVELS...AT LEAST                 
THROUGH SUN...SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF              
ANY STATEMENTS FOR MENTION IN THE HWO SO WILL JUST HANDLE THIS                  
EVENING/S EVENT JUST WITH A HEADLINE IN THE ZFP AND CWF FORECASTS.              
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE               
FRONT...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING COULD                 
BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN.                                                       
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING                         
     AMZ354-GAZ117-119-139-141.                                                 
SC...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING                         
     AMZ330-350-352-SCZ047>050.                                                 
JC/ST                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
950 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
LATEST RUC AND CURRENT TEMP TREND WOULD INDICATE THAT LOW WILL NOT              
FALL AS FAR AS FORECAST. DWPTS AROUND THE AREA STILL IN LOWER                   
40S...AND TEMPS HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. ALSO NEATENED            
UP WINDS IN THE GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES SENT.                                      
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
857 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
UPDATED THE ZONES A LITTLE WHILE AGO WITH THE MAIN CHANGE ADDING A              
WIND ADV TO THE CWA. STARTED LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE 18Z MESOETA...              
18Z AVN AND LATEST RUC40. ALL MODELS POINT TO AN OVERLAP OF VERY                
STRONG LOW LVL CAA...SOME PRETTY STOUT SEA LVL PRES RISES AND                   
SUBSIDENCE EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDN...40 TO 50 KTS WIDESPREAD THRU THE             
CWA AT 850MB EARLY SUNDAY WITH ABOUT 35 TO 40 KTS AT 925MB. AND                 
FINALLY AND THIS IS BOTHERSOME...THE 300MB Q-VECTORS ARE ORIENTED               
PARALLEL WITH THE SFC TO 850MB WINDS SUGGESTING NO IMPEDING AT ALL              
OF SOME OF THESE WINDS COMING TO THE SFC. SO AFTER DIGESTING ALL OF             
THIS...DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WND ADV FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.               
HOWEVER SIMILAR TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...IT IS A QUICK MOVG EVENT              
AND WIND ADV CRITERIA WILL LIKELY ONLY BE REACHED OFF AN ON FOR                 
ABOUT 6 HRS. BUT THESE WINDS ALOFT ARE FCST TO BE STRONGER THAN THEY            
WERE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BLOW FOR A LITTLE             
WHILE. AND IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG IN THE FAVORED AREAS LIKE ALONG             
THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE NW FUNNELING TAKES PLACE...AND THE TERRAIN            
ISSUES ACRS THE BUFFALO RIDGE DOWN TO THE IA GRTLKS. WIND SHOULD                
TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTN AS THE CAA ENDS AND WINDS OFF THE SFC RAPIDLY             
EASE.                                                                           
FOR PCPN...AREA 88DS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED               
WITH STRONG LOW LVL WAA...SOME NOT REACHING THE GROUND YET WITH THE             
DRY LOW LYRS. WITH A STRONG UPR DISTURBANCE MOVG IN TNGT...THIS PCPN            
MAY HANG ON FOR QUITE A WHILE...CHANGING TO CAA PCPN LATER TNGT.                
COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN EARLY SUNDAY            
MRNG ACRS THE NRN CWA...BUT THEIR SFC WET BULB AND BNDRY LYR TEMPS              
ARE FCST TO ONLY DROP TO ABOUT 37 OR 38 DEGS SO NO ACCUMULATIONS AT             
ALL. PCPN SHOULD END EVERYWHERE IN THE FSD FA SUNDAY AFTN AS IT                 
LOOKS LIKE STRONG SUBSIDENCE TEARS APART ANY PCPN CHANCE IN THE                 
AFTN. AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC40 AT 18Z MESOETA SNDGS...THERE            
IS A TAD BIT OF INSTABILITY ELEVATED IN THE MID LVLS...A LITTLE MORE            
PRONOUNCED IN NW IA. SO THEREFORE MENTIONED A CHC OF SOME TS THRU NW            
IA AND ISOLD IN ADJACENT AREAS N AND NW OF THERE FOR SOME OF TNGT.              
LOWS LOOK GOOD RIGHT NOW AND WERE NOT ADJUSTED AT ALL.                          
.FSD...WIND ADV ENTIRE CWA...MOVG FM W TO E FM LATE TNGT TO EARLY               
SUNDAY AFTN.                                                                    
 31                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
CORRECTED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS                                               
UPDATED FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES TO REFLECT TRENDS IN SKY COVER...WX               
AND TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
SKIES AND DECIDED TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL 20 POPS /ISOLATED/ FOR                  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED MINIMUMS A FEW CATEGORIES             
DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 50S                
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA. NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE                    
PANHANDLES WAS BARRELING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THREE            
HOUR PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MB THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EASTERN               
MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE...EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF               
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                  
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE NOT ABNORMALLY COLD...               
PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS                
SHOULD SUPPRESS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE...                
SUNDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED A CATEGORY OR TWO. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY              
SENT.                                                                           
UPDATED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS...                                              
FCSTID = 04                                                                     
AMARILLO    65 69 42 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
BEAVER      61 69 41 71 / 20 07 00 10                                           
BOISE CITY  54 67 39 69 / 20 07 00 10                                           
BORGER      64 69 42 68 / 20 10 00 10                                           
BOYS RANCH  63 69 41 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
CANYON      64 69 42 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
CLARENDON   64 71 44 66 / 20 10 00 10                                           
DALHART     58 68 39 68 / 20 07 00 10                                           
GUYMON      59 69 40 70 / 20 07 00 10                                           
HEREFORD    64 69 41 63 / 20 10 00 10                                           
LIPSCOMB    63 70 43 70 / 20 07 00 10                                           
SHAMROCK    64 72 44 67 / 20 10 00 10                                           
WELLINGTON  65 73 45 67 / 20 10 00 10                                           
JH                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12                 
DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE              
TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...                
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG             
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE              
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT              
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL            
ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE                  
INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES            
COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55                
DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS               
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP.                      
INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB               
SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A              
BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                
ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A             
SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE             
TO AROUND 1 INCH.                                                               
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
UPDATED FIRST PERIOD OF ZONES TO REFLECT TRENDS IN SKY COVER...WX               
AND TEMPERATURES. MOST AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
SKIES AND DECIDED TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL 20 POPS /ISOLATED/ FOR                  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. RAISED MINIMUMS A FEW CATEGORIES             
TO ACCOUNT DUE TO WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO             
THE 50S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CWFA. NEXT COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE            
PANHANDLES WAS BARRELING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THREE            
HOUR PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MB THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EASTERN               
MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. THEREFORE...EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF               
FRONT IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK REMAINS JUSTIFIED.                  
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN WAKE OF FRONT ARE NOT ABNORMALLY COLD...               
PERSISTENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND THREAT OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS                
SHOULD SUPPRESS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AS SEEN TODAY. THEREFORE...                
SUNDAY HIGHS WERE LOWERED A CATEGORY OR TWO. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY              
SENT.                                                                           
UPDATED TEMPERATURE/POP NUMBERS...                                              
FCSTID = 04                                                                     
AMARILLO    65 69 42 65 / 20 10 10 10                                           
BEAVER      61 69 41 71 / 20 10 07 07                                           
BOISE CITY  54 67 39 69 / 20 10 07 07                                           
BORGER      64 69 42 68 / 20 10 09 10                                           
BOYS RANCH  63 69 41 65 / 20 10 09 10                                           
CANYON      64 69 42 65 / 20 10 10 10                                           
CLARENDON   64 71 44 66 / 20 10 10 10                                           
DALHART     58 68 39 68 / 20 10 08 07                                           
GUYMON      59 69 40 70 / 20 10 07 07                                           
HEREFORD    64 69 41 63 / 20 10 10 10                                           
LIPSCOMB    63 70 43 70 / 20 10 07 07                                           
SHAMROCK    64 72 44 67 / 20 10 09 10                                           
WELLINGTON  65 73 45 67 / 20 10 10 10                                           
JH                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12                 
DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE              
TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...                
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG             
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE              
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT              
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL            
ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE                  
INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES            
COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55                
DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS               
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP.                      
INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB               
SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A              
BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                
ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A             
SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE             
TO AROUND 1 INCH.                                                               
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
303 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
8H RETURN FLOW PATTERN IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH                
PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS. LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS 8H DEWPOINTS OF 12                 
DEGREE CELSIUS POISED TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE              
TONIGHT WITH 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...                
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG             
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE              
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING HERE IS THAT              
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UNTIL            
ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY. 18Z RUC AND MORNING ETA MODELS SHOW MODERATE                  
INSTABILITY TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH K VALUES AROUND 32 DEGREES            
COUPLED WITH TOTAL TOTALS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50 TO 55                
DEGREE RANGE. HAVE DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS               
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE THAT MAY DEVELOP.                      
INHERITED BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK FINE AS 1026 MB               
SURFACE RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY UPSLOPE SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
MINOR MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD DEEPEN A              
BIT MORE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                
ACROSS SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED INHERITED 20            
POPS MONDAY NIGHT TO 30 OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MENTION A             
SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM LIFTING OUT AS PW VALUES INCREASE             
TO AROUND 1 INCH.                                                               
FCSTID = 13                                                                     
AMARILLO    51 72 42 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
BEAVER      52 69 41 71 / 20 7 00 10                                            
BOISE CITY  47 71 39 69 / 20 7 00 10                                            
BORGER      50 71 42 68 / 20 10 00 10                                           
BOYS RANCH  51 72 41 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
CANYON      51 71 42 65 / 20 10 00 10                                           
CLARENDON   52 74 44 66 / 20 10 00 10                                           
DALHART     47 71 39 68 / 20 7 00 10                                            
GUYMON      50 70 40 70 / 20 7 00 10                                            
HEREFORD    51 73 41 63 / 20 10 00 10                                           
LIPSCOMB    52 69 43 70 / 20 7 00 10                                            
SHAMROCK    53 74 44 67 / 20 10 00 10                                           
WELLINGTON  53 74 45 67 / 20 10 00 10                                           
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
TONIGHT THRU TUE...EDGE OF CU FIELD...SEEN ON VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY...            
FROM JASPER TO PLEASANTON TO BIG LAKE HELPS LOCATE THE STALLED                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION OVER DPSOTEX...THE COASTAL BEND AND NW             
GULF IS ASSOC WITH VORT AXIS OVER THE NW GULF MOVING INLAND OVER                
COAHUILA BY THIS EVENING...PER RUC80...AS H7 RIDGE BUILDS WEST INTO             
S TX. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVES ACRS NE MEXICO ALONG THE            
RIO (RESACA) GRANDE. PWAT INCREASED BY ABT TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO             
1.83 THIS AM...COURTESY OF SE AND E FLOW FROM SFC TO H4 ON SOUTH                
SIDE OF ELONGATED LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF COAST. EARLY            
THIS AFTN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW. WIDELY               
SCT TSRA OVER THE DPSOTEX AND UPPER NE MEX COASTAL WATERS...IN AREA             
OF SFC CONVERGENCE...ARE MOVG N AND CAN BRUSH THE COASTAL AREAS THIS            
EVENING. WITH H7 RIDGE AXIS SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE CNTRL                        
GULF...WINDS AT H7 WILL VEER TO SE AND S...RESULTING IN DRIER AIR.              
WILL SCALE BACK CLOUD COVER AND POPS...AND RAISE MAX TEMPS                      
ACCORDINGLY FOR SUN AS MESOETA SOUNDING PREDICTS PWAT OF 1.45 IN BY             
18Z TMRW. WITH RESPECT TO THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...AVN            
AND MRF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...AND LATEST               
ETA WASHES IT OUT IN S CNTRL TX MON NIGHT. WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS SUN             
NIGHT INTO 70S MOSTLY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID 60S AND DROP                 
MENTION OF NORTH WINDS.                                                         
WED THRU SAT...INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM DPSOTEX ACRS SW GULF            
TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE PERIOD. FOR FRI AND SAT WILL GO WITH               
MOCLDY E AND PTCLDY W AND CHC TO SLGT CHC SHRA, RESPECTIVELY.                   
MARINE...BUOY020 CHECKS IN AT 3 FEET PER 8 SECONDS WITH A SOUTHEAST             
WIND 12G16KT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE                   
THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER TX COASTAL             
WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 20              
TO 25 KNOTS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7 TO 9 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY            
IS PROBABLE BY MONDAY. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ALSO INCREASE                  
SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL            
DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                            
.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                          
BRO BE 076/092 076/086 069 10/10/00/40/30                                       
HRL BE 075/092 075/086 068 10/10/00/40/30                                       
MFE BE 075/093 076/086 067 10/10/10/40/30                                       
RGC BE 074/094 074/088 066 10/10/10/40/30                                       
SPI BE 079/085 080/084 070 10/10/00/40/30                                       
SYNOPTIC...59                                                                   
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...65                                                       
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1055 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                      
850-700MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS/NEAR NW ZONES...WHILE                 
SURFACE FRONT WELL INTO S-CENTRAL TX. FLOW OVER SHALLOW COOL DOME               
THAT MOVE THROUGH YESTERDAY IS SELY...ALLOTTING FOR SOME ISENTROPIC             
LIFT/LOCAL RISES ON THE 310-315K SURFACES AT/JUST BLO 700-750MB.                
WEAK CAA AT MID LVLS AS WELL WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME WEAK...              
ELEVATED INSTABILITY (GENERALLY AT/BLO 500 J/KG) ACROSS THE W/NW                
ZONES AS WELL. MID LVL CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE BEEN THE RESULT            
AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE PER RUC/META TRENDS...MAINLY NW OF D/FW.            
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPURTING THE OCCASIONAL...ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE            
OVERHEAD AND AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...WILL LEAVE THUNDER IN.                
TWEAKED AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO UPPER 70S OVER THE WEST...DUE TO              
CLOUDS AND SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM ANY SHOWERS. MID 80S SE                
ZONES STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...NE              
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...SHOULD BECOME EAST 5-10KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY             
AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM NORTH TX.                     
FCSTID = 05/                                                                    
DFW   83  65  81  56 /   0  20  70  30                                          
ACT   85  67  84  58 /  10  30  50  70                                          
PRX   81  61  80  55 /   0  20  70  30                                          
DTO   79  63  79  52 /   0  20  70  30                                          
TKI   79  63  79  52 /   0  20  70  30                                          
DAL   83  66  81  56 /   0  20  70  30                                          
TRL   83  66  81  56 /   0  20  70  30                                          
CRS   83  66  85  57 /   0  30  50  60                                          
TPL   85  69  86  59 /  10  30  40  70                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
657 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
WAA SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED NE CWFA WHERE 8H BASED LI'S ARE NEAR ZERO               
TO MINUS 1. RUC SUGGEST WAA SHRA POSSIBLE THRU MORNING...MINIMAL                
THUNDER CONCERNS WITH 7H-5H LR'S 6-6.5 C/KM.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG 300K SFC GETTING UNDERWAY WITH LOW CLOUD               
SATELLITE ENHANCEMENT SHOWING LOW CLOUDS RAPIDLY PUSHING W-N ATTM.              
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SHOWS/3H HEIGHTS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NRN                 
ROCKIES WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING S THRU CA AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES E                
INTO MN.  ALL MODELS WAY BEHIND ON THIS MORNINGS MSTR RTRN.  PRESSURE           
FALLS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST THIS PM AS POTENT NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF            
DROP SE INTO MT.  CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS/DEEPENING OF NRN STREAM              
SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE FORMATION OF LLJ/LOW CLOUDS AGAIN SUNDAY AM WHILE           
UPPER LOW SETS-UP IN NRN BAJA.  WILL INCREASE POPS BEGINNING                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA/STEEPENING MID LEVEL LR'S CONTRIBUTE            
TO INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT.  NRN STREAM TROF TO DRIVE FRONT S INTO W              
TX/SE NM SUNDAY AFTER 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT POPS.  FOR THE             
MOST PART EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE CLOUDY (MVFR CONDITIONS NOT SO GOOD FOR           
THIS WEEKENDS AIRSHOW).  MSL GRADIENT WORTH AT LEAST 15-25 MPH AND              
GUSTY WITH FRONT SUNDAY PM...POSSIBLY A CAT HIER DEPENDING ON                   
ISALLOBARIC/TEMP GRADIENTS.  BY EARLY MON AM IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL               
WAA/STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE I300K-315K WILL RESULT IN THCK LOW                
CLOUDS FM MAF SWWD.  MEANWHILE LIFT ASSOCD WITH BAJA LOW/LEAD SHRTWV            
TROF WILL MOVE IN W TX/SE NM THUS POPS CONTINUED.  AS BAJA LOW BEGINS           
TO MOVE E IT WEAKENS FINALLY MOVING E BY LATE TUESDAY.                          
PRELIMS                                                                         
MAF  84/62/83/53    123                                                         
LSA  84/59/77/51    -23                                                         
6R6  86/65/85/57    233                                                         
MRF  83/55/83/50    223                                                         
CNM  86/59/81/52    223                                                         
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
753 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TO                 
LIGHTEN THE WINDS OVER VERMONT TO BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH. LATEST RUC               
AND ETA SHOW WINDS IN THIS RANGE AND FIT WITH CURRENT TRENDS.                   
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SISSON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
505 PM CDT SAT OCT 5 2002                                                       
AT 22Z...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA                
BORDER...TO A SMALL SCALE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KFSD.              
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA HAS SHOWN                
THAT THE FRONT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN STRENGTH.  THE RUC SUPPORTS               
THIS...SHOWING AN INCREASING TREND OF FORCING IN THE LOWER LAYERS               
ALONG THE FRONT.                                                                
AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH              
OF THE WARM FRONT.  THE 18Z RUNS OF THE RUC/ETA/AVN ALL SUGGEST THAT            
THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE SEE NO REASON WHY             
SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT CONTINUE.  THIS HAS NECESSITATED              
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THIS PRECIPITATION.                        
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
330 AM PDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS PLACE THE UPPER LOW CENTER EAST OF           
SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION...              
WILL EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGE TO START DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER THE            
WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER FLOW IS CURRENTLY                   
NORTHERLY TO SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE                   
GRADIENTS SHOWING A GOOD OFFSHORE FLOW. WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING               
TREND TODAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY AS VALLEY HIGHS COULD REACH INTO               
THE 90S ON MONDAY. WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THE WINDS TODAY AS THE             
GRADIENTS REMAIN VERY RELAXED. THE SFO-LAS PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS                
ONLY 0.6MB AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY MORNING WITH OTHER DIRECTIONS SHOWING            
SIMILAR AMOUNTS THIS MORNING. AND AGAIN...UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE...             
WILL NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE NEXT                  
TROUGH AFFECTS THE DISTRICT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.                        
THE LATEST MODEL RUN WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WARMING THINGS UP               
TODAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE STARTING THE COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY. THE                  
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN BY THAN WITH MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW              
DEVELOPING. DURING THAT TIME...WILL ONLY EXPECT MINOR COOLING OF A              
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS TIME THE NEXT TROUGH              
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY.  MOLINA                                   
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC              
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN WEDNESDAY. 850-MB TEMPERATURES                
DROP BY ABOUT 1 DEGREE C...SO WILL COOL THE REGION BY A COUPLE OF               
DEGREES. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
INTO THE WEST COAST...ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO              
DIFFER ON TIMING...STRENGTH AND PATH. CONSENSUS DURING THE EARLY                
MORNING COORDINATION CALLS WAS TO GO WITH THE GFS...AS IT HAS HAD               
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MEDIUM-RANGE PATTERNS FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE              
GFS HAS 4 DEGREES C COOLING AT 850-MB THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY.              
THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA BY 12Z               
FRIDAY...WITH 80 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR THE 850-700-MB                 
LAYER. WILL GO WITH ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLING THURSDAY...AND AGAIN                
FRIDAY...EXCEPT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHERE THE MARINE AIR WILL BRING             
ADDITIONAL COOLING. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO/S SACRAMENTO...LAS                
VEGAS AND RENO...WILL ADD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE            
FRIDAY NIGHT. 700-MB TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE -5 TO -6            
C...WITH 1000-500-MB THICKNESSES OF 5520 METERS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO            
A SNOW LEVEL OF AROUND 5500-6000 FEET.                                          
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST             
AREA SATURDAY FOR DRY WEASTHER AND A FEW DEGREES TEMPERATURE                    
RECOVERY. WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA                
NEVADA...AND MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE.  SANGER                                    
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
316 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
CLOSED LOW IN PLACE OVER SRN CA AND SWRN AZ. RUC AND SATELLITE SHOW             
IT NOT CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST.               
RUC FORECAST SHOWS THIS CURRENT AND SHORTTERM TREND AND THEN SLIDES             
THE 500 MB LOW SSE INTO NW MEXICO LATER TODAY. NOT SURE IF EARLIER              
MODELS AND 12-HR RUC FORECAST MAY BE TAKING THIS LOW TOO FAR SOUTH              
AND THUS DECREASING THE CHANCE OF PCPN OVER SW CO MON. WILL KEEP THE            
SLGT CHC POPS MON AFTN FOR CO/UT FOUR CORNERS REGION.                           
GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER CWA THRU TUE. LOW              
CLOUDS OVER NRN MTNS AND NW PLATEAU HAVE DISSIPATED. ONLY OCCASIONAL            
THIN BANDS OF MID LVL CLDS WILL PERIODICALLY TRAVEL OVER THE AREA               
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW. WILL DECREASE THE CLOUD              
COVER OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE SHORTTERM. CURRENT FORECAST           
TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH STEADY WARMING TREND.  CJC                                 
(WED-SAT)...WEAK ZONAL RELATIVELY DRY FLOW WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY            
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOMES                    
SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT              
BASIN. CURRENT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS           
OF CWA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED SHOWERS FOR MOUNTAINS AND             
COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER ALL CWA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RESULT.           
MPM                                                                             
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
228 AM MDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE WINDS TODAY AND MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
SATELLITE SHOWING AMPLIFIED BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM CENTRAL             
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. ONE SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS LOOKS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM REMAINS             
CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE                
AREA BUT MAIN COLD AIR LOOKS LIKE IT IS STAYING WELL NORTH. AT JET              
LEVEL...STILL A POWERFUL JET PUSHING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF RIDGE NEAR           
THE WEST COAST. ETA/AVN ARE HANDLING THE 130-150 KNOT JET THE BEST              
WITH THE ETA HAVING A SLIGHT EDGE.                                              
AT MID LEVELS...COMPARED TO SATELLITE...THE RUC/AVN WERE DOING                  
THE BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA/AVN            
DID THE BEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON            
THE HEIGHT FIELD. HOWEVER...AVN IS DOING BETTER WITH HEIGHTS OVER               
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND WITH CUTOFF SYSTEM OVER THE                
DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALSO AVN IS BEST ON FEATURES OVER THE PACIFIC                 
ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE FAST WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE WEST SIDE             
OF THE RIDGE. AT LOW LEVELS...ETA/AVN TENDED TO OUTDO THE OTHER IN              
DIFFERENT AREAS. AVN DID BETTER WITH LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH IN               
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ETA DID BETTER ON TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL              
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE AVN DID BETTER OUT WEST. A BLEND OF            
THE ETA AND AVN SEEMS IN ORDER.                                                 
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...JET DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL JET KICKED UP A FEW              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. BUT             
THAT ACTIVITY AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ARE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF            
FORECAST AREA. AREA STAYS IN FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE DURING THIS               
TIME. AS FOR THE WINDS TODAY. THE BEST DOWNWARD MOTION IS TO THE                
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THE TIME THE BEST DOWNWARD MOTION            
WORKS INTO THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. IT WILL BE BREEZY             
TO WINDY WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS IN THE EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOOKS LIKE           
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL BE NORTHEAST AS WELL. WILL GO WITH THE           
NGM/ETA MOS AND ETA 2 METER WHICH HAS BEEN DOING THE BEST FOR MAXES.            
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT PLUS            
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP.            
IN FACT...GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT MINS WILL BE REACHED AROUND 06Z...           
AND THEN TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE. SO TEMPS SHOULD             
STAY ABOVE FROST/FREEZE CRITERIA.                                               
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FAST WESTERLY FLOW/JET DYNAMICS/SHORTWAVES            
LOOK TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN                  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARM AIR            
ADVECTION/PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF MONDAY NIGHT FRONT. MAXES WILL            
BE IN THE 70S AND WILL GO CLOSE TO THE NGM MOS/ETA 2 METER TEMPS                
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...JET FINALLY STARTS MOVING AWAY DURING               
THE DAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. SHORTWAVE MOVING                   
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT              
IS GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY. SINCE IT IS A SIMILIAR SETUP...MAXES LOOK             
REASONABLE. MINS ALOS LOOK REASONABLE.                                          
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                      
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
315 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCE FIRST PERIOD AND             
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM.                                         
ONLY INITIALIZATION PROBLEM TO NOTE WAS THE 850 HPA WIND FIELD IN               
THE AVN MODEL. WIND SPEEDS WERE GROSSLY OVERDONE AT 850 HPA.                    
THE ETA AND AVN MODEL ARE SIMILAR THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH PLACEMENT OF            
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE ETA IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE S/W TROUGH                
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.               
FIRST PERIOD ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. AVN PLASTERING 25-30KTS SUSTAINED             
AT THE SURFACE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW GETS GOING TO             
THE EAST OF CWA. 3 AND 6 HOURLY PRESSURE TENDENCIES DEPICTED BY THE             
MODELS ARE NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THE               
ETA MODEL TO BE DOING A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE SURFACE                    
PRESSURE FIELD AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES. THIS MODEL DOES NOT PROMOTE             
EXCESSIVE WINDINESS TODAY. NEITHER DOES ANY OF THE NUMERICAL                    
GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...AM CONTENT TO LEAVE 20 TO 30 MPH WORDING IN THE             
GRIDS AND ALLOW FOR AN UPGRADE SHOULD IT COME TO THAT. LATEST RUC               
DATA SET REVEALED THAT BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/JET SUPPORT AND              
LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS IN OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CWA              
THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO WILL LEAVE CHANCE WORDING FOR RAIN IN                 
GRIDS OUT THERE WITH REFLECTIVITY TREND THIS MORNING SHOWING MOST OF            
PRECIP STEERING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CWA. WAA AT 850 HPA AND 700            
HPA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO PUSH                   
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER        
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. UPPED THE TEMPS IN THE WEST TO LOW TO MID               
70S AS PER ETA 925 HPA TEMP PROGS AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE            
IN THE LOW LEVELS. OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUPPORT GOING                   
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. S/W TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH CWA MONDAY                     
NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL BE EMBEDDED IN WNW ZONAL FLOW REGIME...AND IS NOT            
PROGGED TO GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UVV ATTM. THIS SYSTEM WILL               
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA MONDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A COOL                
DOWN ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP FOURTH AND FIFTH PERIODS DRY FOR NOW.                
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
DORN                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
LARGE SCALE CHANGES EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THIS FCST CYCLE. PATTERN           
WAS INITIALLY QUITE HIGH AMPLITUDE...WITH LNGWV TROF OVER THE CENTRAL           
STATES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALREADY DEAMPLIFYING. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE          
THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST CYCLE. REAMPLIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN LATE NEXT          
WK...WITH MEAN TROF REFORMING BACK OVER THE WRN STATES.                         
HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL SUPPORT ONE MORE STG CYCLONE THAT         
WL MV ACRS THE AREA TDA. INTENSE DYNAMICS WL GENERATE VERY STG LIFT...AS        
INDICATED BY WIDESPREAD PCPN DESPITE LACK OF GULF MOISTURE. CONCERN IS          
06Z RUC WHICH SHOWED UPR SYSTEM DIGGING MORE. MORE SLY TRACK OF VORT            
COULD CAUSE HVY PCPN IN COMMA HEAD TO LINGER FAR N-C WI FOR MUCH OF THE         
DAY. PCPN FCST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TDA BASED ON LAST MINUTE STLT/RADAR        
TRENDS.                                                                         
WINDS ALSO A CONCERN TDA. AGAIN...06Z RUC MUDDLED THE PICTURE. NORMALLY         
EXPECT STRONGEST WINDS ABOUT 100 MI RIGHT OF TRACK OF VORT. THAT RULE           
APPLIED TO MORE SLY TRACK OF SYSTEM ON RUC WOULD SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS        
STAYING S OF MY FCST AREA. HOWEVER...LATEST METARS INDICATED 38KT AND 45        
KT WIND GUSTS IN SWRN ND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF VORT TRACK. THUS WL GO            
WITH WIND ADVISORY AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. START TIME HELD BACK         
IN N-C WI TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHTER WINDS AS SFC LOW TRACKS ACRS THAT AREA.        
WL RUN ADV ALL NGT IN DOOR COUNTY AS COLD AIR POURING OVER THE WARM             
WATERS OF THE BAY WL HELP MAINTAIN DEEP MIXED LAYER. WINDS WL GRADUALLY         
DIMINISH ELSEWHERE TNGT...BUT SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM          
FALLING TOO FAR.                                                                
QUIET WX EXPECTED MON...THEN NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY RACES INTO THE AREA MON        
NGT. PLENTY OF MID-LVL MOISTURE AND CLDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ENOUGH           
GRADIENT TO GENERATE SOME WIND AT NGT. THUS WARMER FWC/MAV TEMPS                
PREFERRED TO COOLER MET. HOWEVER FLATTER MEAN PATTERN MEANS SYSTEM WL           
NOT BE NEARLY AS STG AS THE PREVIOUS TWO...SO CHC CAT POPS SEEMED THE           
WAY TO GO.                                                                      
SINCE GULF MOISTURE LIKELY TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE          
WK. FLATTER MEAN PATTERN WL CONT TO SUPPORT ONLY WK SYSTEMS...SO DON/T          
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY SIG PCPN DURING THE REST OF UPCOMING WORK WEEK. STUCK        
WITH PREV FCST WHICH WAS DRY UNTIL SAT. NEW MEX GUID TEMPS SIMILAR TO           
WHAT WAS IN PREV FCST...SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.                           
REAMPLIFICATION NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD LEAD TO A RETURN TO A WETTER PATTERN        
WITH TEMPS BACK ABV SEASONAL NORMALS.                                           
COORD WITH MKE...LSE...DLH...AND MQT.                                           
.GRB...WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING                       
       WIZ005-010>012-018-019-                                                  
       WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING                            
       WIZ013-020-021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-                      
       WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                                 
       WIZ022-                                                                  
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2002                                                     
LATEST SATELLITE/RUC SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIP
HAS MOVED WELL NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AS THE AIRMASS HAS MIXED      
OUT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THE AIRMASS HAS SOME INSTABILITY 
WITH LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 DEGREES...CAPES OF AROUND 2500 TO 3000. ALSO       
A 700 MB SHORT WAVE WILL BE COMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE    
THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. SO HAVE INCREASED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR      
THIS AFTERNOON AND PUT IN LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED POPS 
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED AFTERNOON TEMPS TO THE 85 TO 90   
DEGREE RANGE. SINCE TEMPS HAVE JUMPED TO THE EARLY 80S ALREADY. LAST BUT NOT    
LEAST HAVE PUT IN A WIND SHIFT FOR TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE NORTH. THE REST
OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.                                         
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...NONE                                                                       
LA...NONE                                                                       
MS...NONE                                                                       
17                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
1010 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                      
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                              
A BAND OF SC CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...STEERED BY A                   
RELATIVELY DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. IF THE NORTHERN               
EDGE OF THE BAND CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH...IT             
WILL SKIRT THE TWIN FORKS AND PASS OVER THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG                 
ISLAND. OTHERWISE...IT WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND HEAD               
TOWARD THE NJ COAST.                                                            
AT 13Z...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH WAS CENTERED JUST             
NORTH OF KMSS...WAS 1029 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ETA AND RUC MODELS COME              
CLOSEST...ALL MODELS HAVE UNDER FORECAST THIS HIGH DEVELOPMENT...AND            
HEREIN LIES ONE SHORT RANGE FORECAST PROBLEM:                                   
THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...WITH A NEW MOON PRODUCING            
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TODAY AND AN INCREASING EASTERLY                        
FETCH...TIDES WHICH ARE NOW RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST BY ANY                 
MODEL...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR             
TIDAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT HIGH TIDES ACROSS THE               
COAST...WHICH WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED COASTAL MARINE                   
FORECAST.                                                                       
OUR CURRENT LAND FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I'M NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY            
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.                                 
...THIS IS THE 349 AM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...                               
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARLY OVER THE EASTERN END OF               
LAKE ONTARIO HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF THE NORTHEAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES              
AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...TEMPERATURES HAVE             
BEEN DROPPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING. AS OF 3 AM...THE CITY AND                   
SURROUNDING SUBURBS AND LONG ISLAND HAVE NUDGED BELOW 60 DEGREES...             
NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT ARE MOVING DOWN THROUGH THE                  
50S... AND THE INLAND AREAS NORTH AND WEST ARE IN THE MID AND UPPER             
40S. QUITE A CONTRAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHEN DEW POINT                        
TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO             
SUBSIDE...WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS REPORTING AROUND 10 MPH IN               
THE CITY AND LONG ISLAND...AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ANYWHERE            
FROM 5 MPH...DOWN TO CALM.                                                      
SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP AND OVER OUR AREA                       
TODAY...SLIDING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE BY THIS EVENING.                         
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE                            
DAKOTAS...NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WILL QUICKLY MARCH TOWARD THE EAST                
COAST...MAKING IT TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS             
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY WITH TIMING REMARKABLY              
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S FRONT...PERHAPS ONLY SLIGHTLY QUICKER. ONCE              
AGAIN...MOST OF THE DYNAMICS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY WELL TO OUR               
NORTH...AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE BY 12Z                  
MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LIKELY BE DEPRIVED OF ANY                 
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS...AND BE LEFT WITH LIGHT SCATTERED                  
SHOWER ACTIVITY. TIMING FOR THE THREAT OF A SHOWER CURRENTLY LOOKS              
TO BE IN A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 10Z-20Z MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER               
THAT...A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND THE PATTERN                  
BECOMES MUCH LESS PROGRESSIVE.                                                  
MID-RANGE...MAPS FROM HPC INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH                 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT             
ALL...OF THE WEEK.  AS A RESULT...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN.                                               
DROUGHT...AT THE MOMENT I WOULD EXPECT GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH              
OF AN INCH ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY.              
AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAIN EXISTS FOR THE NEXT                  
SEVERAL DAYS. THEREFORE...NO GOOD NEWS ON THIS FRONT.                           
MARINE...THE WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 15 KTS ON THE             
OCEAN. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT THE WINDS ON THE SOUND ARE LOWER JUDGING            
FROM THE COASTAL CONNECTICUT METAR OBSERVATIONS. WAVE WATCH III                 
MODEL HAS BEEN REMARKABLE CONSISTENT AND ACCURATE RECENTLY WITH THE             
WAVES OF LATE. CURRENTLY...WE ARE RUNNING 5 TO 6 FT...AND THE MODEL             
DOES CALL FOR THE 5 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.                      
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE                 
OCEAN. PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE THIS INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD...BUT                
WILL START TO SUBSIDE THE SEAS OVERNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...THINKING THAT             
WE WILL STAY JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS                 
REALLY CALM DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WINDS 15 KTS OR LESS                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...15 TO 20 KTS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN 15 KTS OR             
LESS THE REST OF THE PERIOD.                                                    
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WAA LATE                  
TONIGHT BRINGS IN CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY MONDAY                  
MORNING.                                                                        
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ355-353-350.                               
PUBLIC...JK                                                                     
AVIATION...DW                                                                   
$$                                                                              
GC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1020 AM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                      
12Z CHS SNDG REVEALS MUCH LESS LOW LVL MSTR AND QUITE A MID LVL CAP             
AT 3.3 C. MODIFIED SNDG TO 86/72 STILL GAVE SOME INHIBITION ENERGY.             
RUC H5 VORT LINGERING JUST TO THE W TDY WITH BEST INSTABILITY ACRS              
SRN PTN CWFA. WEAK FNT MOVG ACRS NRN SXNS THIS MORN WITH HIGH PRES              
BLDG TO THE N. FNT WASHES OUT ACRS AREA THIS AFTN WITH LGT NLY FLOW             
BCMG ONSHORE WITH A SEABREEZE COMP. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FCST                  
GIVEN PSBL FOCUS ALG FNTL BNDRY OR SEABREEZE...HOWEVER CONVECTION               
SHUD BE ISOLD. LTL CHG TO TEMPS THIS AFTN WITH MID TO UPR 80S                   
EXPECTED. WILL CONT WITH PTCLDY SKIES WITH SOME SC OR AC DVLPMT DURG            
THE AFTN AND REMOVE MENTION OF MORN FOG.                                        
MARINE...VSBYS HAVE RAPIDLY IMPROVED FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SO               
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG FROM THE FORECAST. A NEBULOUS GRADIENT               
HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT...ALMOST VRBL WINDS OVER THE WATERS WHILE A               
STRONGER NE SURGE WAS DEVELOPING N OF HAT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.             
N/NE WINDS HAVE DROPPED AS FAR S AS GEORGETOWN (PER WFO ILM MESONET             
PRODUCT) AND EXPECT THEM TO SLOWLY BLEED INTO THE SC WATERS TODAY               
BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE GA                  
WATERS...SUSPECT WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE VRBL THAN NE. AREA               
BUOYS INDICATE SWELLS FROM KYLE ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING RESULTING IN               
LOWER SEAS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL LOWER SEAS JUST A TAD.                
TIDES...WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS               
MORNING PREVENTED TIDAL DEPARTURES FROM REACHING SHALLOW COASTAL                
FLOODING LEVELS. TODAY/S PREDICTED LEVELS ARE 0.1-0.2 FT HIGHER THAN            
YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL 0.1-0.2 FT BELOW SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING                
CRITERIA. WE MAY BE ABLE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNTIL MON BUT            
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAKE A FINAL DECISION            
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                                     
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
JC/ST                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
615 AM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
...AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                       
RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATES TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY                  
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.              
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE RUC40 SUGGESTS THAT THIS                     
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH EARLY                     
AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A LINE AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD             
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. CURRENT TAF SET HAS OVERALL TREND              
FOR THE DAY COVERED...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH. LOW CLOUDS WILL                
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING               
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF            
THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED             
TO APPROACH WACO BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN             
FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND             
INCREASING TO 10-20 KNOTS FOLLOWING FROPA.                                      
65/DD                                                                           
...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                
COMPLEX...EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH                       
AMERICA...AS THE ATMOSPHERE ATTEMPTS TO JUMP FROM THE WARM SEASON               
INTO FALL.  A MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITION CONTINUES TO BECOME                
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL U.S. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY                 
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION.  THE OTHER MAJOR PLAYER IS             
A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM CUTTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST            
ACROSS THE THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.                                           
A DISTURBANCE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A COOL FRONT INTO                
TEXAS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE FRONT              
AND ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVECTIVE                    
RESPONSE ALSO IS NOT AS STRONG... AND THE FRONT WEAKENS AS ITS                  
FORWARD PROGRESS SLOWS IN SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                  
THUS... CLOUDS AND PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN             
WITH THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PLAY THE INITIAL CONVECTION DOWN             
A BIT (AS PER THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z KAIN/FRITCH ETA RUN).              
PRECIP COMES RIGHT BACK INTO THE PICTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE STJ AND A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION                
MOVE ACROSS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS.                           
WE WILL GO A BIT ABOVE MOS PRECIP GUIDANCE TONIGHT...BUT STICK                  
RATHER CLOSE TO MOS TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                                       
...ADDITIONAL COMMENTS AS OF 445 AM...                                          
WE HAVE WORDED THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS BEING MINIMAL TODAY...IN            
THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS OR HAIL.             
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...OUR UNCERTAINTY ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND HAS                 
INCREASED BECAUSE OF DIVERSE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MRF IS MUCH MORE              
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EUROPEAN.  ONE SHOWS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS             
(MRF)...WHEREAS THE EURO HAS THE SAME SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER WEST.                 
THUS...WE HAVE ADDRESSED THE UNCERTAINTY BY LOWERING POPS FROM                  
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE.  WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT MODEL RUNS TO               
REEVALUATE.                                                                     
FCSTID =26                                                                      
DFW   91  60  78  53 /  30  60  10   0                                          
ACT   92  62  79  57 /  20  60  40   0                                          
PRX   90  56  76  51 /  30  50   0   0                                          
DTO   88  57  77  51 /  30  50   0   0                                          
TKI   88  57  77  51 /  30  50   0   0                                          
DAL   90  59  78  55 /  30  60  10   0                                          
TRL   91  60  78  54 /  30  60  10   0                                          
CRS   93  61  78  56 /  30  60  20   0                                          
TPL   93  63  79  57 /  20  60  40   0                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
315 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                       
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW DEEPENING TROF OVR THE               
NCNTRL CONUS WITH 130KT H3 JET MAX/H5 COLD POCKET NR -30C DIGGING SE            
FM SW CAN INTO NRN PLAINS ON BACK SIDE OF UPR TROF. AT 15Z WELL                 
DEFINED SHRTWV ON WV LOOP APRNT MOVG INTO SRN MN...WITH SFC LO AT               
1007MB OVR NW WI. BASED ON SFC OBS SHOWING SHARP WIND CNVGC OVR THE             
WRN CWA...XPCT LO TO TRACK NE TOWARD MAX PRES FALLS (6MB/3HR) OVR               
CNTRL LK SUP. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LO...GRADIENT TO E OF SYS                 
SHARP ENUF TO BE CAUSING SE WIND GUSTS ARND 40 MPH OVR EXPOSED LK MI            
SHORELINE ZNS. CLASSIC COMMA CLD STRUCTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS                    
VIGOROUS SHRTWV. MAIN BODY OF CLD LEAF/AREA OF STEADY RA IN WAD                 
PATTERN AHD OF SFC/H85 LO AND LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING 70KT H5 JET               
MAX IN NE IA/RRQ OF 130KT H3 JET MAX AT CWZC EXITING ERN CWA AS DRY             
SLOT MOVG INTO THE WRN ZNS. DESPITE THESE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS... NO               
LTG STRIKES WITH SYS YET AS LIMITED ABSOLUTE MSTR (12Z PWAT 0.69                
INCH AT GRB) AND MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES INHIBITING CNVCTN. SOME            
SHRA DVLPG ACRS CNTRL WI THIS AFTN AS SFC LO SHIFTING INTO SCNTRL LK            
SUP. COMMA HEAD STRUCTURE NOTED OVR NCNTL MN ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT             
MAX...AND AIR IS COLD ENUF HERE (SFC TEMP AS LO AS MID 30S/H85 TEMP             
0 TO -2C) FOR SN.                                                               
WNDS/PCPN TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING STORM SYS MAIN FCST CONCERN              
IN SHORT TERM. FOCUS FOR LATE MON INTO WED TURNS TO ANOTHER SYS FCST            
TO MOVE IN FM THE PLAINS.                                                       
FOR TNGT...12Z MODELS ALL SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO 994-998MB AND                
MOVG TO A POSITION JUST S OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z. HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN            
VIGOROUS DYNAMICS THAT LO PRES WL NOT DEEPEN MORE...BUT VERIFICATION            
OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAKER PREVIOUS FCSTS MORE ON TRACK. SO             
WL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE WITHOUT MUCH MODIFICATION. SHARPEST PRES                
GRADIENT/CYC FLOW/NLY FLOW PROGGED TO SHIFT W TO E ACRS LK SUP/CWA              
TNGT AND E OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER...MODELS NOW MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE             
WITH FCST LLVL WND FIELDS AND OTHR DYNAMICS THAT LOOKED POTENT YDAY.            
ALSO...FCST PASSAGE OF H5 VORT MAX TO S OF CWA AND RELATIVELY WEAK              
LLVL CAD NOT FVRBL FOR VERY HI WIND. EVALUATION OF HI WND CHKLIST               
USING ETA DATA INDICATES MINIMAL HI WND ADVY OVR EXPOSED LOCATIONS              
OF KEWEENAW/ALGER/LUCE ZNS. HAVE OPTED TO DROP WND HEADLINES                    
EVERYWHERE XCPT ZN GROUPINGS WHERE PREVIOUS FCST SHOWED HI WND                  
WRNG...THAT IS CMX-KEWEENAW-ALGER-LUCE...AND WL GO WITH ONLY HI WND             
ADVY THESE PLACES. AS FOR PCPN...WRAP ARND MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH H5              
VORT MAX PASSING S OF CWA AND COINCIDENT WITH H5 THERMAL TROF WITH              
TEMP DOWN AS LO AS -31C OVR WRN LK SUP. WOULD XCPT PRESENT SCT SHRA             
TO BCM WDSPRD AS COMMA HEAD TRACKS ACRS CWA THIS EVNG. BUT EXIT OF              
DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AHD OF COMMA HEAD MSTR INDICATES                   
STRUCTURE WL BEGIN TO COLLAPSE A BIT. IN FACT...ETA H85-5 RH PROGS              
INDICATE MEAN H85-5 RH DECREASES A BIT TNGT. SYS ALSO FAIRLY                    
PROGRESSIVE...AND DEEPER COMMA HEAD MSTR PRESENT FOR ONLY ABOUT 6               
HRS. DEEPER MSTR PROGGED TO SHIFT E OF ERY ARND 09Z. OFFSETTING THE             
LOSS OF QVECTOR CNVGC IS POTENTIAL LK SUP IMPACT WITH VIGOROUS CYC              
FLOW ACTING AS AN ENHANCEMENT MECHANISM DESPITE LOSS OF DYNAMICS.               
UPSTREAM INL SDNG NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H85              
AND SOME DRY AIR BLO THE INVRN...BUT THIS SDNG DOES NOT APPEAR                  
REPRESENTATIVE OF CHANGING CONDITIONS. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW NRLY                 
MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WITH ONLY A WEAK INVRN ARND H7...WITH                
INSTABILITY LIKELY ENHANCED BY ARRIVAL OF H5 THERMAL TROF. HAVE                 
OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS OVR LK SUP BORDER ZNS BUT CUT TO            
CHC/SCT OVR THE SE WHERE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW COINCIDENT WITH BEST                 
MSTR. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRN STRENGTHENING AT H85                 
OVRNGT FOLLOWING EXIT OF DEEP MSTR...BUT MODEL ALSO HINTS AT DRIER              
AIR (NOW AT INL) FEEDING IN BLO INVRN LATER. SO PURE LK EFFECT PCPN             
SHUD BE MINIMAL. ETA INDICATES AIR COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SN WL NOT               
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTR DEPARTURE OF DEEPER MSTR. SO SN SHUD FALL OVR ONLY            
HIER TERRAIN DURG PD OF RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE PURE LK EFFECT PCPN AND             
AMT TO LTL IF ANY ACCUM WITH FAIRLY STRG NWLY FLOW ADVCTG LK                    
MODERATED AIR INLAND OVR WARM GRND. WL MENTION A SLUSHY INCH PSBL               
OVR HIER TERRAIN...BUT NO MORE.                                                 
BY MON MRNG...XPCT NOTHING MORE THAN LINGERING FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN            
CYC FLOW NR LK SUP. WITH DRIER LLVL AIR FEEDING IN...XPCT CLRG LATE             
TNGT OR EARLY MON ACRS SCNTRL ZNS...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM            
MNM TO ESC. THEN AS SFC HI PRES RDG MOVES IN...XPCT LINGERING LK CLD            
ACRS THE NCNTRL AND E TO GIVE WAY TO PARTIAL CLEARING. BUT CLRG WL              
BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS ADVERTISE INCRSG INSENTROPIC LIFT ON 295K              
SFC (ARND H75) MOVG IN AHD OF NXT SHRTWV DROPPING ESE THRU SCNTRL               
CAN LATE ON MON. BUT LLVLS WL REMAIN PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PCPN THRU            
EVNG WITH ABSENCE OF ANY UPR JET SUPPORT/DVGC. MOS FCST TEMPS LOOK              
RSNBL GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE NRN PLAINS TDAY.                              
MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290K SFC CONTG MON NGT.                      
HOWEVER...OTHR DYNAMIC FORCG PRETTY MUCH ABSENT WITH HINT OF ONLY               
ILL DEFINED H3 JET MAX WITHOUT ANY UPR DVGC MOVG TOWARD NW GRT LKS              
OVRNGT WELL AHD OF MAIN SHRTWV STILL IN SCNTRL CAN/SFC LO IN NW MN.             
THIS FCST SUPPORTS GOING CHC POPS. ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO PCPN                
TYPE WITH EARLIER FCST SHOWING A MIX OF RA/SN PSBL. BUT SINCE TEMPS             
XPCTD TO RISE WELL INTO THE 40S TMRW AND WAD CLD RUSHES IN BEFORE               
ANY COOLING AFTR SUNSET...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE GOOD SETUP FOR SN SO               
EARLY IN THE SEASON. ETA FCST H100-85 THKNS ALSO FCST TO BE NO LWR              
THAN 1310M. ON THE OTHR HAND...SFC DWPTS PROGGED IN THE MID 20S AT              
TIME PCPN CHCS BEGIN. BUT ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE TEMP HI ENUF SO               
THAT WBZ HGT ARND 1.5K FT AT TIME MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF SGNFT            
UVV ALSO WL LIMIT SN CHCS. HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE PSBL SN FM FCST. MIN            
TEMPS SHUD OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE NGT WITH EVAP COOLING                  
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PCPN. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE CLD COVER AND               
WAD WL HOLD TEMP STEADY. MOS MINS APPEAR SVRL DEGREES TOO LO GIVEN              
FCST WBLB TEMP AND CLDS/WAD.                                                    
ON TUE...MORE IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE CLOSER FM THE PLAINS            
WITH SFC LO REACHING WRN LK SUP BY 00Z WED. COMBINATION OF CONTG                
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEPICTED ON 295K SFC (H7-75) AND SOME H3-2 DVGC/PVA             
AHD OF SHRTWV WARRANTS UPGRADE TO LIKELY POPS AS SHOWN BY NGM MOS               
GUIDANCE OVR THE N...WHERE SOME FRONTOGENETIC FORCG ASSOCIATED WITH             
SFC-H85 WARM FNT MAY COME INTO PLAY AS WELL. SRN ZNS APPEAR S OF                
MAIN FRONTAL ZN...SO WL CARRY ONLY CHCY POPS THERE. WITH TEMPS WELL             
IN THE 40S N/50S S PER FVRD AVN/NGM MOS...NO QUESTION AS TO PCPN                
TYPE.                                                                           
SFC LO SHIFTS ACRS LK SUP TUE NGT AND INTO QUEBEC BY LATE WED. PCPN             
WL END W TO E AS DRY AIR ALF FOLLOWS SHRTWV TUE NGT INTO EARLY WED.             
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER LK EFFECT PCPN WL DVLP IN FAIRLY TIGHT              
CYC FLOW IN WAKE OF SYS AFTR DEPARTURE OF UPR DYNAMICS. AVN/ETA SHOW            
H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -2C/-3C BEHIND SFC LO...MARGINAL FOR LK EFFECT             
WITH LK SUP TEMP ARND 10C. SINCE GOING FCST SHOWS CHC -SHRA NR LK               
SUP...WL MAINTAIN LO CHC POPS ATTM. XPCT SOME PARTIAL CLRG OVR THE S            
TUE NGT. INCRSG SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE ON WED WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HI               
PRES RDG.                                                                       
EXTENDED MODELS CONT TREND FOR ZONAL FLOW MID WEEK TO EVOLVE TO A               
MORE WRN TROF/ERN RDG SCENARIO FOR LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS                
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON SPLIT OF POTENT SHRTWV DIGGING SSE THRU GLFAK.             
UKMET SHOWS SHRTWV REMAINING PRETTY MUCH INTACT AS IT CUTSOFF OVR               
GRT BASIN ON FRI...WITH SHARP UPR RDGING/SFC ACYC FLOW DVLPG OVR THE            
GRT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYS. CNDN MODEL SHOWS SHRTWV SPLITTING               
WITH STRONGEST PIECE PLOWING MORE W TO E ACRS SRN CAN AND MOVG INTO             
NRN PLAINS BY LATE FRI...WITH JUST A SML PIECE OF SHRTWV DROPPING               
INTO THE SW CONUS. ECMWF/MRF OFFER A SOLN IN BTWN WITH A FAIRLY                 
VIGOROUS NRN AND SRN BRANCH SYS...NRN BRANCH SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED SFC              
COLD FNT ARRIVE IN THE NW GRT LKS FRI NGT. OPERATIONAL CNDN MODEL               
SOLN HAS EXCELLENT SUPPORT FM ALMOST ALL CNDN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...               
AND MAJORITY OF MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A MORE SPLIT SOLN WITH             
NRN BRANCH SHRTWV AT LEAST AS SHARP AS SRN BRANCH SHRTWV. SO FCST               
SCENARIO WL BE DRY ON THU...WITH WEAK SHRTWV CUTOFF FM GLFMEX MSTR              
UNABLE TO GENERATE PCPN...THEN INCRSG CLDS ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF NRN             
BRANCH SHRTWV...FOLLOWED BY SHRA CHCS SAT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD                  
FROPA. HAVE OPTED TO GO DRY FOR NXT SUN AS SFC RDG FILLS IN BEHIND              
SAT SHRTWV. SINCE UPR FLOW REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL BEHIND SHRTWV                   
PASSING TO N THRU ONTARIO...DEEP COLD AIR INTRUSION UNLIKELY...SO               
MINIMAL CHC FOR LK EFFECT PCPN ON SUN IN WAKE OF SHRTWV.                        
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...HIGH WIND ADVY TONIGHT MIZ001-003-006-007.                               
       GALE WRNG LK SUP.                                                        
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1235 PM EDT SUN OCT 6 2002                                                      
...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...                                
SFC OBS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW PRES MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS              
ANTICIPATED. THUS...WIND HEADLINES ARE MAIN CONCERN NOW BOTH IN WAKE            
OF SFC LOW...AND WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTION ON NOSE OF VIGOROUS VORT              
MAX WHICH IS CURRENTLY RACING INTO WRN WI.                                      
SFC CHART FM LATE MORNING SHOWS DEVELOPING LOW (1006MB) OVR SW UPR              
MI...WITH 3HR PRES FALL MAX (-6MB) FM GRAND MARAIS TO STANNARD ROCK.            
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO 360 AT IWD SO LOW IS LIKELY BTWN MQT             
AND IMT. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH OF RAIN CRUISING THROUGH ERN                    
CWA...WITH DRYING TREND AT MQT/IMT/IWD. DLH RADAR SHOWING COLD                  
CONVEYOR BELT (WRAPAROUND) PRECIP OVR ERN MN. FOLLOWING RUC H9-H8               
DEFORMATION AXIS THIS PRECIP ROTATES JUST N OF VORT TRACK...BACK                
INTO NCTNRL UPR MI AFT 21Z. BULK OF DRY SLOT RESIDES OVR SCNTRL UPR             
MI. VIS SAT SHOWS PARTIAL CLEARING PRIMARILY INTO CNTRL/ERN                     
WI...WITH IR SAT DEPICTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM INTO MUCH OF              
WRN UPR MI ATTM. CONCERNING PRECIP BASICALLY PREVIOUS FCST ON                   
TRACK...WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA OVR N AND SHRA MORE SCT OVR SOUTH                  
(FARTHER INTO DRY SLOT).                                                        
MODIFIED 12Z MPX SOUNDING AND FOUND THAT WITH T/TD OF 58/52 AT ESC              
SBCAPES OF 500J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. H85-H5             
LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED AT AROUND 6.5C/KM. SCNTRL ZONES ARE ALSO ON             
NOSE OF H5/H7 SPEED MAXES...ADDING ADDITIONAL UVM. WIND FIELDS                  
SHOWING UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FM SW WITH 35-60KT FM H7-H5. SO                     
MENTIONED STRONG WINDS IN THE ISOLATED TS FOR THESE AREAS.                      
WINDS...ALL MODELS SETTLING ON 1001MB LOW OVR WAWA ONTARIO WITH                 
WINDS IN MIXED LAYER (H85) IN WAKE OF SFC LOW UP TO 45 KT AT BEST               
THROUGH 03Z...AND WITHIN THAT 1000-900MB WINDS ONLY OF 30KT. AVN A              
BIT STRONGER SHOWING SFC WINDS OF 35KT AT 00Z OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND             
NRN TIER ZONES. HIGH WIND CHECKLIST POINTS TO AROUND ADVY CRITERIA              
ONLY ON KEWEENAW AND FM MQT-LUCE COUNTIES. BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE             
AND LACK OF DEEPENING ON SFC LOW...WE HAVE ELECTED TO DOWNGRADE HIGH            
WIND WARNING TO HIGH WIND ADVISORY OVR KEWEENAW AND FOR ALGER/LUCE              
COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED HWA FOR EVERY OTHER COUNTIES. MODIFICATIONS              
WILL ALSO BE MADE TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO DROP STORM WARNING IN NEXT                
PACKAGE.                                                                        
COORD WITH APX/GRB/YQT.                                                         
.MQT...HIGH WIND ADVY LATE THIS AFTN/TONIGHT MIZ001-003.                        
       HIGH WIND ADVY TONIGHT MIZ006-007.                                       
       STORM WRNG LK SUPERIOR.                                                  
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi