WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
845 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
...A FEW RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETAILS FOR                 
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWFA MAY BE FOUND IN A PUBLIC INFORMATION                  
STATEMENT ISSUED UNDER THE MIAPNSTBW HEADER...                                  
.DISCUSSION...RUC AND WATER VAPOR STLT SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH                    
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A DRY COLD NW-N UPPER                   
FLOW WORKING INTO THE AREA. MSAS PLACES A 1039 HIGH CENTERED                    
FROM NE TX TO SOUTH MO THAT WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST                     
OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY 10 OR 10-15 MPH WIND ACROSS                 
THE CWFA. LATEST TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE TRENDING DOWN IN LINE                     
WITH THE FCST AND GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING AS IS.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY AND RAOB DATA SUPPORT ONGOING MARINE FORECAST                    
WITH SCA ON THE GULF AND SCEC FOR TAMPA BAY WATERS. WILL ISSUE                  
COASTAL WATERS BY 1020 PM WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...MOST LOCATIONS HAD 4 HOURS OR MORE BELOW 35 PERCENT                  
WITH A FEW SPOTS HAVING CLOSE TO 7 HOURS. EXPECT WED TO BE                      
SIMILAR TO TODAY...A WATCH IS ALREADY UP AND MOST LIKELY GO TO                  
A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE MORNING.                                              
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  HARD FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR                    
    LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...AND SUMTER COUNTIES.                             
  FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR                         
    PASCO...POLK...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.                                   
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                  
    MORNING FOR ALL COUNTIES.                                                   
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL COUNTIES.                      
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60            
    NAUTICAL MILES.                                                             
  SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ON TAMPA BAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
930 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS AND AT 9 AM WAS ROUGHLY               
FROM JUPITER TO BIG CYPRESS INDIAN COMMUNITY TO MARCO ISLAND. AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S BUT BEHIND THE FRONT THE                  
DEWPOINTS DROP QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S AND WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS               
GLADES COUNTY. WILL LOWER EXPECTED MAX TEMPS FOR GLADES COUNTY TODAY            
FOR EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO RAISE                    
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXTREME SOUTH BECAUSE COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE                 
DELAYED MORE THERE. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.                               
WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OUR GULF OF                
MEXICO WATERS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 35 PERCENT OR              
LOWER FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA            
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS VERY DRY AND                 
DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST             
RUC IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE MESOETA AND SHOWS RH BELOW 30 PERCENT                
OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT 21Z TODAY.                                
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA                
THIS MORNING. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER                 
WESTERN PENINSULAR FLORIDA, BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERALLY A             
TRACE FOR THE MORNING TOTAL. COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS BEHIND THIS                
FRONT, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH               
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER TODAY. FOR THIS MORNING, A FEW PATCHES OF             
FOG HAVE BEEN RELAYED, BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED IN                  
EXTENT.                                                                         
TONIGHT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE                
COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT JUST ABOVE FREEZING                 
TEMPS FOR NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.            
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW 35 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE                    
INTERIOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WITH BELOW 45 DEGREES              
FOR MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL BE OBSERVED IN               
PARTS OF GLADES, HENDRY, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTIES.                      
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPS              
COOL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR THE              
MOST PART. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,              
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL START                   
MODIFYING THE AIRMASS, AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER LOWS ACROSS THE AREA             
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST ALL INTERIOR AREAS IN THE 40S AND                 
COASTAL AREAS IN THE 50S.                                                       
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE                 
IMMEDIATE COAST AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS CONVERGENT MODERATE              
TO STRONG OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERSIST. OTHERWISE, TEMPS               
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.               
GFSLR IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS              
WILL COOL THINGS OFF A LITTLE BIT, BUT NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS                
THIS FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS,                    
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY OVER              
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND BY TONIGHT IN ALL WATERS. THE OPPOSING             
NORTH FLOW WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM BY EARLY                
MORNING TO AT LEAST EIGHT FEET, WITH 10 FEET BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL            
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL REACH UPPER 60S TODAY IN GLADES COUNTY,              
WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THIS               
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REACH BELOW 35 PERCENT              
FOR THE FOUR HOUR MINIMUM TO JUSTIFY A RED FLAG WARNING. IT WILL BE             
CLOSE FOR OTHER AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS WELL. EXPECT THE DRIEST AIR            
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW HOWEVER, AS WINDS VEER MORE                  
NORTHEAST, EXPECT ATLANTIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO START ADVECTING OVER              
THE AREA. RH'S AROUND THE LAKE WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD IN                       
SOME PLACES, BUT NOT FOR REQUISITE TIME FRAME. THE OTHER WILDCARD               
HOWEVER WILL BE SURFACE WINDS REACHING 15 MPH. THIS WILL BE CLOSE.              
WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR GLADES AND HENDRY FOR                   
WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING THAT IT'S IFFY IT'LL REACH EITHER MOISTURE OR             
WIND CRITERIA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH 73 46 65 56 / - 00 00 10                                        
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 49 66 57 / - 00 00 10                                        
MIAMI           73 49 66 56 / - - 00 00                                         
NAPLES          67 42 63 47 / 10 00 00 00                                       
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT COASTS.                
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES AND LAKE                    
OKEECHOBEE TONIGHT.                                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL GULF MARINE ZONES TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
800 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
...NEAR RECORD LOWS OVER INTERIOR AREAS BY TOMORROW MORNING...                  
.UPDATE...ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 35               
PERCENT OR LOWER FOR FOUR OR MORE HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF               
SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COASTS. 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING IS                
VERY DRY AND DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL                
FLORIDA. LATEST RUC IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE MESOETA AND SHOWS RH                 
BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER A LARGE PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA AT 21Z TODAY.               
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA                
THIS MORNING. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER                 
WESTERN PENINSULAR FLORIDA, BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERALLY A             
TRACE FOR THE MORNING TOTAL. COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS BEHIND THIS                
FRONT, ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING MAJOR CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE THROUGH               
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER TODAY. FOR THIS MORNING, A FEW PATCHES OF             
FOG HAVE BEEN RELAYED, BUT THIS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED IN                  
EXTENT.                                                                         
TONIGHT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE                
COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT JUST ABOVE FREEZING                 
TEMPS FOR NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.            
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DIP BELOW 35 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE                    
INTERIOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, WITH BELOW 45 DEGREES              
FOR MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS. NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL BE OBSERVED IN               
PARTS OF GLADES, HENDRY, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTIES.                      
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD START WILL KEEP TEMPS              
COOL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR THE              
MOST PART. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,              
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL START                   
MODIFYING THE AIRMASS, AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER LOWS ACROSS THE AREA             
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MOST ALL INTERIOR AREAS IN THE 40S AND                 
COASTAL AREAS IN THE 50S.                                                       
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE                 
IMMEDIATE COAST AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS CONVERGENT MODERATE              
TO STRONG OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PERSIST. OTHERWISE, TEMPS               
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.               
GFSLR IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS              
WILL COOL THINGS OFF A LITTLE BIT, BUT NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS                
THIS FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT, RESULTING IN INCREASED WINDS,                    
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER TODAY OVER              
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND BY TONIGHT IN ALL WATERS. THE OPPOSING             
NORTH FLOW WILL INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE GULF STREAM BY EARLY                
MORNING TO AT LEAST EIGHT FEET, WITH 10 FEET BY TOMORROW. WINDS WILL            
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE                  
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND GRADIENT LOOSENS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPS WILL REACH UPPER 60S TODAY IN GLADES COUNTY,              
WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. THIS               
WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO REACH BELOW 35 PERCENT              
FOR THE FOUR HOUR MINIMUM TO JUSTIFY A RED FLAG WARNING. IT WILL BE             
CLOSE FOR OTHER AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AS WELL. EXPECT THE DRIEST AIR            
TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. FOR TOMORROW HOWEVER, AS WINDS VEER MORE                  
NORTHEAST, EXPECT ATLANTIC TAP OF MOISTURE TO START ADVECTING OVER              
THE AREA. RH'S AROUND THE LAKE WILL BE BELOW THRESHOLD IN                       
SOME PLACES, BUT NOT FOR REQUISITE TIME FRAME. THE OTHER WILDCARD               
HOWEVER WILL BE SURFACE WINDS REACHING 15 MPH. THIS WILL BE CLOSE.              
WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR GLADES AND HENDRY FOR                   
WEDNESDAY CONSIDERING THAT IT'S IFFY IT'LL REACH EITHER MOISTURE OR             
WIND CRITERIA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH 73 46 65 56 / - 00 00 10                                        
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 49 66 57 / - 00 00 10                                        
MIAMI           73 49 66 56 / - - 00 00                                         
NAPLES          67 42 63 47 / 10 00 00 00                                       
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT COASTS.                
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES AND LAKE                    
OKEECHOBEE TONIGHT.                                                             
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL GULF MARINE ZONES TONIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH...                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
335 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON THUS FAR COMING UP TONIGHT...                  
...LOW WIND CHILLS AREAWIDE WITH LOCAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES                    
   NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE FOUR TONIGHT...                                      
...UPCOMING COLD SHOT SUN NIGHT/MON COULD BE EVEN COLDER...                     
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. AS OF                 
08Z...POSITION WAS FROM MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA. VERY STRONG DRY AIR              
ADVECTION OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BDRY...WITH LATEST RUC40             
ANALYSIS SHOWING H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES DROPPING FROM ~80% OVER THE            
CENTRAL PENINSULA TO BLO 30% OVER NRN PENINSULA. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOW             
THE DROP QUITE WELL...READINGS AT CROSS CITY, GAINESVILLE, AND ST.              
AUGUSTINE HAVE FALLEN FROM THE M40S/M50S AT 03Z TO THE L30S AT 07Z.             
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY/TONIGHT...THOUGH A FEW SCRAPS OF             
STRATOCU WILL LINGER AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION DURING THE               
EARLY-MID MORNING. STRONG NWRLY WINDS WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO WITHIN             
10F OF THEIR MORNING LOWS: <70F NEAR LAKE OKEE...AND <60F OVER THE              
NRN CWA. MIN TEMPS FOR THE FAR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK            
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ADVECTION EVENT WILL BE MARGINAL AS THE PGRAD               
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND SUBSEQUENT                
RADIATIVE COOLING. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE NRN                
INTERIOR FOR NOW (EXPANDING IT TO INCLUDE WRN SEMINOLE/ORANGE COS)              
AND LET DAY SHIFT DETERMINE WHICH COUNTIES WILL MERIT A WARNING                 
AFTER THEY GET A GOOD LOOK AT 12Z OBS AND GUIDANCE.                             
WED-FRI...LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE WX SYSTEMS                 
MOVING THROUGH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE POS PNA PATTERN. AN INTENSE               
H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES EWD AND OFFSHORE WED/WED NIGHT...WITH             
WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS IN IT'S             
WAKE. THIS ALLOWS COLD SFC HIGH TO ELONGATE E-W AND DRIFT EAST OVER             
THE SE AND MID ATLC STATES. ANOTHER STRONG NRN STREAM H50 SHORT WAVE            
TROUGH DIVES SE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND THEN THE SE STATES THU-FRI             
...CHASING THE SERN CONUS SFC HIGH EAST INTO THE ATLC. IN ADDITION              
TO THIS...STRONG SUBTROP JET MAX WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ERN PAC AND              
PUSH ACROSS TEX/MEX...THE GOMEX...AND TWD FLORIDA. ANTICIPATE AND               
INCREASE IN CLDS FRI AS CYCLOGEN OFF THE ERN SEABOARD COMMENCES WITH            
YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE STATE.                      
SAT-MON...YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SEWD             
INTO THE ERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE             
A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE TO INDUCE FULL LATITUDE PHASING OF NRN             
AND SRN STREAMS...WITH A MERIDIONAL 120-140KT NRN STREAM JTSTRK                 
PLOWING FULL FORCE SWD TWD AN EVEN STRONGER 140-150KT SUBTROP JET.              
BEING SOME 6 DAYS OUT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF                
PHASING AND TIMING OF FEATURES HERE...HOWEVER THE ECM/GFS/DGEX ALL              
ADVERTISE THIS SCENARIO...WITH EAST COAST/WRN ATLC SFC BOMBOGENESIS.            
THIS PORTENDS AN EVEN STRONGER CAA EVENT WITH FREEZING TEMPS/WIND               
CHILLS FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA IF IT PANS OUT. STAY TUNED.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL BE HOISTING CWA FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AS NRLY WIND SURGE            
IS ENTERING ON THE FLG-COF LEG...AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER ALL THE             
MARINE AREA BY LATE MORNING. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE             
ON FULLY DEVELOPING SEAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE GULF STREAM                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED SFC              
DEWPOINTS OVER THE NECK OF THE PENINSULA TO DROP A SOLID 15-20F DEG             
SINCE 03Z.  WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE                  
DAY...THE PGRAD BEHIND THE FRONT IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL SUPPORT               
15-20MPH SFC WINDS.  EVEN THOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH               
60F DEGS OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...EXPECT THEIR SFC DEWPOINTS               
WILL DROP WELL INTO THE 30S BY DAYBREAK.  READINGS COULD DROP EVEN              
LOWER SHOULD THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIX DOWN.  WILL LET THE FLAGS FLY              
FOR THE INTERIOR FROM LAKE TO OSCEOLA...AND FOR THE COAST FROM                  
VOLUSIA TO NRN BREVARD.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  57  35  55  43 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MCO  60  34  58  41 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MLB  63  38  59  47 /   0   0   0   0                                           
VRB  66  41  61  49 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                          
  FREEZE WATCH LAKE/INTR VOLUSIA/WESTERN SEMINOLE/ORANGE COS TONIGHT            
  WIND CHILL ADVISORY ALL COUNTIES TONIGHT.                                     
  RED FLAG WARNING LAKE/VOLUSIA/SEMINOLE/ORANGE/OSCEOLA AND                     
    NORTHERN BREVARD COS THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
  FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAKE AND WESTERN PORTIONS          
    OF VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...AND OSCEOLA COS.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW                                                             
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
905 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT ZONES IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING...AS A                   
RESULT...NO UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED. LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATING                
RIDGE AXIS ALINGED FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NE THRU EAST CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS. WINDS ALREADY INTO THE SOUTH AND SW ACRS MOST OF THE FCST             
AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH              
FURTHER THIS EVENING. MAY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEEKS IN OUR EASTERN                 
COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS...BUT STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF            
PREVIOUS FCST LOWS OF 10 TO 15. RUC MODEL SUGGESTS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD            
SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS ACRS THE              
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. WARMER TEMPS STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH            
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS                   
ILLINOIS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN                   
CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND TEMPERATURES AND THE                
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.                          
12Z MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE RELATIVELY             
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS REGION. HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA FOR THE             
DETAILS...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN OUR AREA BEING TRACE                      
(ETA/UKMET) VERSUS MEASURABLE (GFS/CANADIAN) PRECIPITATION ON                   
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE AND REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT              
STRAY FAR.                                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                          
TONIGHT...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS FORECAST AREA              
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE             
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD END UP A            
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS              
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                              
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT             
FURTHER EAST WITH TIME...WITH GOOD RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE            
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL             
LEVELS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP              
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                         
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL                
NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD...PULLING THE TRAILING COLD               
FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE            
IS LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL NORTH             
OF US. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION IN FORECAST AS             
A RESULT.                                                                       
FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION...PROVIDING QUIET             
CONDITIONS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER             
SYSTEMS FOR SATURDAY...                                                         
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS/ENSEMBLES IN                      
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL                        
IMPULSES/CLIPPERS EXPECTED WITHIN THE FLOW...BUT THEY GENERALLY                 
APPEAR TOO FAR NORTH AND MOISTURE STARVED TO WARRANT PRECIPITATION              
MENTION AT THIS TIME. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN...AS EACH                  
CLIPPER BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. FEEL TEMPERATURES FOR            
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL (POSSIBLY MUCH                 
BELOW)...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL MODEL/SURROUNDING OFFICE CONSENSUS IS              
BETTER BEFORE GOING TOO COLD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMITH/BAK                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
956 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING                 
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROF IN               
NORTHERN MANITOBA. SOME LAKE SC IS LINGERING OVER THE NRN KEWEENAW              
AND IN THE FAR EAST...BUT THIS IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO             
BACKING FLOW TO THE SW (NOW OBSERVED ACROSS THE U P). THUS WOULD                
EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT FROM THIS POINT ON. FORECAST CONCERNS IN            
THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE WINDS ON LAKE SUPERIOR AND TEMPS AS PRESSURES            
CONTINUE TO FALL TO OUR NORTH.                                                  
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY AT ROAM4 AND              
BY A SHIP ON THE WESTERN LAKE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATEST PRES                 
FALLS STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST. AS PRES FALL MAX SLIDES TO NORTH OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BELIEVE WINDS WILL              
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ON THE FAVORED WESTERN LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN              
FUNNELED REGION BETWEEN ISLE ROYALE AND THE KEWEENAW. ETA/RUC HAVE              
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...SHOWING 950MB WINDS INVOF 35-38KTS LATER                
TNGT INTO EARLY WED. THIS IS NEAR TOP OF UNSTABLE LAYER ON THE                  
LAKE...AND SHOULD BE REFLECTED AT C-MANS AND BY ANY SHIPS. WINDS ON             
THE EASTERN LAKE WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SHOULD TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN            
30 KTS WED MORNING.                                                             
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE             
U P. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS...A STEADY WIND             
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH FURTHER...DESPITE MOSTLY                
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AMS. CURRENT FCST OF LOWS GENERALLY FROM 5-15F              
LOOK FINE. WILL TWEAK GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT             
SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE ZONES AT THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WRNG WEST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP BUT PROGRESSIVE UPR             
TROF OVER THE E DOWNSTREAM OF UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. SHRTWV DROPPING            
SSEWD IN THE NNW FLOW ALF PRESENT JUST SW OF JAMES BAY. 1043MB SFC              
HI PRES NOTED OVER KS UNDER THE RDG. LLVL NW FLOW TO THE NE OF THE              
SFC HI CONTINUES CAD OVER LK SUP...WITH ENUF LLVL COLD AIR (12Z H9              
TEMPS AT APX/GRB DOWN TO -13C) STREAMING IN BLO INVRN AT H9 AS                  
DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB/APX SDNGS TO INITIATE NMRS LES BANDS OVER THE               
ERN CWA. ABUNDANCE OF LLVL DRY AIR HAS COLLAPSED THE LES OVE THE W.             
UPSTREAM INL SDNG SHOWS AN EVEN LOWER INVRN AOB H95 UNDER SFC RDG               
AXIS EXTENDING NNE FM THE SFC HI CENTER TO THE S. ALTHOUGH NR SFC               
DWPTS ARE AOB 0F UPSTREAM OF LK SUP OVER NE MN...STLT IMAGERY/SFC               
OBS SHOW BKN ST/SC OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EVEN IN AREAS WHERE THE LLVL            
FLOW IS NOT FM OVER THE LK. A BAND OF ST/SC ALSO NOTED OVER NRN MN              
AND MOVING E...12Z INL SDNG SHOWS A 50MB DEEP SFC-BASED SATURATED               
LYR UP TO H95 CORRESPONDING TO THIS AXIS OF LO CLD.                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND CLD/LES TRENDS AND GOING LES               
ADVY OVER THE ERN CWA.                                                          
LATEST RUC/ETA SHOW PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG AXIS PUSHING E AND OVER MN              
LATER THIS AFTN...WITH BLDG UPR HGTS OVER THE NW GRT LKS. SFC HI                
CENTER PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY...WITH WNW LLVL            
FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE FA AND ADVECTING HIER H85 TEMPS (LOWER                 
INVRN) EWD. HOWEVER...BOTH ETA/RUC SHOW H9 THERMAL TROF LINGERING               
UPSTREAM MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WL ACT TO ACCENTUATE THE LLVL INVRN            
BLO THE H85 WRMG AND MAINTAIN LO CLD DECK WITH BKN SC HANGING ARND              
MUCH OF THE DAY. BOTH RUC AND ETA ALSO SHOW SHRTWV SW OF JAMES BAY              
DROPPING TOWARD LK HURON LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A PD OF DPVA/H85-5              
QVECTOR CNVGC AND ENHANCED H95 CNVGC PRESENT ARND 18Z. ALTHOUGH THE             
LES BANDS LOOK RAGGED ATTM AND SN REPORTS FM THE E THIS MRNG ARE NOT            
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...FEEL THESE FCST DYNAMICS JUSTIFY CONTINUING               
THE ADVY TDAY DESPITE LARGER SCALE TREND TOWARD RISING HGTS ALF AND             
INCRSG H85 ACYC FLOW. MODIFIED RUC SDNGS FOR MINIMAL MIXING TDAY IN             
GENERAL SUPPORT GOING FCST HI TEMPS.                                            
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS            
A RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE U.P. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL MOVE               
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS               
LOW INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL              
EDGE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL BACK              
SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH THE 850 TEMPERATURES ABOVE              
ZERO.                                                                           
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN               
U.P. ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DEEPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER                   
NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN                
ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL                 
CANADA. WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE              
WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER THE MINNESOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.               
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION WILL PERSIST                  
AROUND 950MB. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOW DEVELOPING.                                  
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL DIVE INTO WESTERN LAKE                
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE             
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD               
AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -10C OVER             
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS LAKE EFFECT ENHANCE WILL MOST LIKELY            
OCCUR.                                                                          
DLG                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM TODAY MIZ006-007-085.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
958 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
...NO UPDATE TO THE TEXT FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...                
.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN A SCRAGGLY...RENEGADE CUMULUS CLOUD HERE OR            
THERE...CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT                
MID-MORNING.  THE SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS IS DEVOID OF ANY MAJOR            
WEATHER FEATURES...OTHER THAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR PONCA CITY            
OKLAHOMA.                                                                       
ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD THE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE LOWER                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH...IN THEORY...SHOULD ALLOW BETTER            
DECOUPLING THAN LAST NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES TOMORROW            
MORNING SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THOSE SEEN THIS MORNING.                 
FOR THE TIME BEING...I'LL KEEP THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING/WATCH                 
ALIGNMENT.  THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON.  I'M STILL                 
LOOKING AT THINGS...AND WILL PROVIDE SOME MORE DETAIL ON ANY CHANGES            
WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S DISCUSSION.  I WILL RE-ISSUE THE                          
NON-PRECIPITATION WARNING TO MODIFY SEGMENTS...BUT...KEEP IN                    
MIND...THERE ARE NO CHANGES IN WHAT'S IN EFFECT FOR WHO.                        
I HAVE TWEAKED SOME OF THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED DATA.  THE             
END RESULT (A.K.A. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES)...PER THE LOCAL DIURNAL               
CURVE...SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.  NO CHANGES ARE                
EXPECTED WITH THE TEXT FORECAST RIGHT NOW.                                      
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SHOULD BE ON THE INTERNET SHORTLY.              
/#10/                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
345 AM CST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE WINDS HAVE NOT DECOUPLED              
OVER NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED FROM LAST             
EVENING. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES 6-8 DEGREES              
WARMER THAN EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE SOUTH MAY NOT REACH FREEZING                
TEMPS THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY            
MORNING THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NORTH MAY NOT DIP BELOW 20 DEGREES            
AND MEET HARD FREEZE CRITERIA. WL ADJUST THE CURRENT FREEZE                     
WATCH/WARNINGS AND REISSUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH AND                 
MAINTAIN A HARD FREEZE WATCH IN THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A                  
POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.             
THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AND DRAW SOUTH COOLER DRIER AIR            
INTO OUR REGION. THE 1042MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER KANSAS EARLY THIS            
MORNING WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SETUP A SW-NE                 
RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. IT IS THIS                 
RIDGE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED LIGHT WINDS THAT SHOULD HELP OUR COOL             
DRY AIRMASS RADIATE DOWN TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON              
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE COLD WITH THE WHOLE AREA DROPPING              
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT               
EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN RETURNING LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL             
MOVE OVER THE PLAIN STATES AND ADVANCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE DELTA              
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ETA AND THE UKMET ALL INCREASE               
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE LIGHT PCPN INTO OUR                 
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA PARISHES BY FRIDAY                    
MORNING. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE              
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NO WINTRY MIX PCPN IS              
EXPECTED. WL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT LEAVE OUT POPS             
IN THE NORTH AS MOISTURE THERE SHOULD BE TOO SCARCE.                            
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY              
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ONLY            
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY. COOLER              
AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BACK OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT                
WHEN A STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA                    
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AS A DRY                
FRONT. WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN                
MONDAY MORNING.  /#22/                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT CENTRAL-SOUTH MSZ040>067-072>074                    
     FREEZE WATCH FOR HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT N AND E CENTRAL                 
     MSZ019-025>033-035>039-044>046-050>052                                     
LA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT NORTHEAST LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026                
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BUTTS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1000 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)                                                         
NW FLOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON THE WANE ALONG THE TN BORDER. KMRX              
RADAR SHOWS FEW ECHOES ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO AREA FROM HAYWOOD                  
COUNTY WEST...WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPS WARMING A BIT. NRN MOUNTAINS                
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OFF AND                  
ON...BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO END SOON. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WINTER                  
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILL            
ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT GOING EVEN THOUGH NRN MOUNTAIN TEMPS WILL                 
PROBABLY NOT DROP MUCH LOWER THAN CURRENT READINGS...GIVEN END OF               
COLD ADVECTION AT 850MB AROUND 06Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES              
WILL BE MADE TO MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED AT 228 PM.                                                               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
18Z RUC RUN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WRN NC MTNS. THE               
RUC FEATURES A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 1000 TO 850              
MB LAYER THROUGH 00Z...AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUING TO BLOSSOM ON               
KMRX RADAR SEEM TO VERIFY THIS. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE             
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH            
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA IN THE FAR NRN             
NC MTNS.                                                                        
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS...WITH 850 MB FLOW AROUND 35 KT. WINDY                 
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND             
CHILL VALUES IN THE ZERO TO MINUS FIVE RANGE FROM YANCEY NORTHWARD              
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                             
DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT            
YET EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS                    
WESTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MOISTURE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY                 
FRIDAY...BUT WITH MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR                      
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL. WILL FEATURE NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW FRI IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.                                 
HG                                                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                     
COMBINATION OF CANADIAN AND ECMWF TAKEN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/S PACKAGE. EXTENDED STARTS WITH DEPARTING                
FRIDAY COLD FRONT AND LINGERING ISOLATED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES              
SUGGEST CWFA WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                    
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH FOR                        
SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER ALL BUT EXTREME            
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. 85H TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO WARM                  
ENOUGH TO MAKE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN                           
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOUNTAINS WERE GIVEN A RAIN             
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX. WITH DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT...CANADIAN AND             
ECMWF AGREE WELL IN PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SIGNAL FOR             
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS. DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY                
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...30S/40S FOR MAXES              
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S TO LOWER 50S FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT             
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ADVERTISED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT             
FOR TEENS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                            
SAB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>052-058 UNTIL                 
     MIDNIGHT EST.                                                              
  ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 THROUGH                       
     10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.                                                       
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOORE                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WWA SECTION                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
228 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
18Z RUC RUN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE PRODUCING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE WRN NC MTNS. THE               
RUC FEATURES A RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE 1000 TO 850              
MB LAYER THROUGH 00Z...AND RADAR RETURNS CONTINUING TO BLOSSOM ON               
KMRX RADAR SEEM TO VERIFY THIS. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE             
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER...WITH            
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA IN THE FAR NRN             
NC MTNS.                                                                        
PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS               
EAST FROM THE SRN PLAINS...WITH 850 MB FLOW AROUND 35 KT. WINDY                 
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND             
CHILL VALUES IN THE ZERO TO MINUS FIVE RANGE FROM YANCEY NORTHWARD              
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                             
DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT            
YET EXPECTED BY WED NIGHT. THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM BRINGS                    
WESTERLY FLOW AND SHALLOW MOISTURE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY                 
FRIDAY...BUT WITH MUCH LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILES FOR                      
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL. WILL FEATURE NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE              
POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW FRI IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                    
COMBINATION OF CANADIAN AND ECMWF TAKEN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF             
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY/S PACKAGE. EXTENDED STARTS WITH DEPARTING                
FRIDAY COLD FRONT AND LINGERING ISOLATED NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW INTO               
THE MOUNTAINS...THEN FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES              
SUGGEST CWFA WILL REMAIN IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                    
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACH FOR                        
SUNDAY...WITH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER ALL BUT EXTREME            
SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY. 85H TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO WARM                  
ENOUGH TO MAKE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN                           
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MOUNTAINS WERE GIVEN A RAIN             
SHOWER/SNOW SHOWER MIX. WITH DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT...CANADIAN AND             
ECMWF AGREE WELL IN PRODUCING STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SIGNAL FOR             
THE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIODS. DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY                
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...30S/40S FOR MAXES              
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 40S TO LOWER 50S FOOTHILLS PIEDMONT. OVERNIGHT             
LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ADVERTISED THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT             
FOR TEENS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND MAXIMUM MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS             
UNTIL DECOUPLING ENSUES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS ALONG WITH             
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO DIE OFF                 
SUFFICIENTLY THIS EVENING. WE MAINTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KTS              
AT AVL THROUGH THE PREDAWN...AND THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF               
PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD COVER AT THE AVL TAF SITE AS MOISTURE OVER THE            
HIGHER TERRAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST WITH WEAKENING                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING            
ALOFT LATE TONIGHT PROVIDE BASIS FOR ADVERTISING MOSTLY LIGHT AND               
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-048>052-058 UNTIL                 
     MIDNIGHT EST.                                                              
  ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 THROUGH                       
     10 AM EST WEDNESDAY.                                                       
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HG                                                                 
LONG TERM/AVIATION...SAB                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
925 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WED/...                                              
BRISK NW FLOW CONTINUES TO POUR COLD AIR INTO CWFA. THE 14Z                     
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FORECAST OF                
AFTN HIGHS 45 TO 50 STILL LOOKS GOOD. JUST AFTER SUNSET THIS                    
EVENING...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO PLUMMET WITH A HARD FREEZE ALL AREAS              
TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN FREEZE WARNING AS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. NO                
MORNING UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                            
&&                                                                              
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
.MARINE...DECENT PRES GRAD BEHIND EXITING CDFNT COMBINED WITH                   
DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER LAND WILL MAINTAIN SCEC WIND SPEEDS OVER ALL             
NEARSHORE MARINE AREAS. RUC MAINTAINS SOLID 20 KT WINDS AT 925MB                
THAT...WITHIN SUBSIDENCE...LOOKS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WILL                   
MAINTAIN SCEC FOR ALL NEARSHORE MARINE AREAS INCLUDING CHS HARBOR.              
IN THE GA OFFSHORE...SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN FROM THE INITIAL 25-30 KT            
BUT FEEL THEY WILL REMAIN AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE NEARSHORE SO WILL             
CALL IT 20 KT THERE. NEVERTHELESS...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SCA CONDS             
FOR THAT ZONE DUE TO WAVE HEIGHTS. WAVE HEIGHTS WITHIN 20NM LOOK OK.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...P6SM SKC THROUGHOUT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141.                         
SC...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT SCZ047>051.                                         
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
950 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE...                                                           
OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR                   
CHANGES EXPECTED TO FIRST PERIOD. BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND                
MODEL PROGGED QPF WL DECREASE POPS ACRS MOST ZNS. WL MENTION                    
SCATTERED FLURRIES CPV/CT RIVER VALLEYS TO CHC POPS ACRS WESTERN                
FACING SLOPES OF DACKS/GREEN MTNS.                                              
BIG PICT ON VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN                
ACRS CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS EASTERN US AND RIDGE OVER               
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TROF AXIS CONTS TO BE WEST OF FA TODAY WITH            
WEAK 5H VORT LOBE ROTATING ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LIMITED...THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT SCT             
FLURRIES/SW. EXPECT MORE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH MESO-FEATURES...LIKE            
TERRAIN ENHANCED SW.                                                            
OTHERWISE...LATEST VIS SAT PICS SHOWS SOME CLRING ALONG A PLB TO TIC            
LINE THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPING DRYING OFF THE                    
DACKS...AND SOME MORE CLRING NOTED ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY. WL TRY             
TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO INCLUDE THESE SAT TRENDS. THE COMBINATION OF             
NW FLOW...STEEP LOW LAPSE RATES...AND WRAP AROUND 1000-850MB                    
MOISTURE...FEEL UPSLOPE SW WL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...06Z WS-ETA SHOWS              
LIMITED ACCUMULATION OVER MTNS AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WEAKENS AND            
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY.                                                     
PROGGED 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND 85H ALONG WITH 925MB TEMPS              
ALL SHOW LLVL CAA CONTINUING TODAY. GIVEN CRNT SOUNDING FROM                    
CWMW...WHICH SHOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY AT 85H FROM                    
YESTERDAY . TEMPS WL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20F VALLEY LOCATIONS.                    
THINKING NE KINGDOM AND MTN LOCATIONS WL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS AT               
BEST...WHICH CRNT FCST HAS COVERED WELL.                                        
&&                                                                              
TABER                                                                           
HAD SOME LOCAL AWIPS TEXTDB PROBLEMS THAT NEEDING TROUBLESHOOTING               
EARLIER...SO I WAS A LIL LATE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE.                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY...THEN ACRS THE FA            
TONITE THRU WED NITE. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON                   
THU/THU NITE. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TONITE.                              
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH THU NITE)...                                               
00-03Z 13KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE ONLY IN THE SINGLE              
NUMBERS AND TEENS TODAY ACRS THE FA WITH W-NW SFC WINDS AT 10-20 KTS.           
T1MAX TEMPS ARE 15-20F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS            
BASED ON THIS DATA. REGIONAL GPS IPW VALUES APPEARED TO BE AROUND               
0.3" EARLIER. RUC SHOWS SN (AOB 2") TO LINGER MOSTLY ACRS THE HIR               
TRRN TODAY.                                                                     
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK WAA TO             
DEVELOP ACRS THE FA ON WED THRU THU NITE. COLD POOL OF AIR AT H85 TO            
AFFECT THE FA TODAY THRU MUCH OF WED. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO            
TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA ON WED AND THU NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO                
LINGER ACRS THE FA TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF TONITE...THEN LOW-LVL MSTR             
TO RETURN ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES ON THU NITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO           
BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY AND FOR MUCH OF TONITE...THEN AGAIN ON                  
THU/THU NITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES ON WED             
NITE AND ON THU NITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO DROP TO BLO 0.2"            
TODAY AND TONITE...THEN BE 0.3-0.4" ON THU/THU NITE.                            
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWED SOME DECENT LK CHAMP LK ENHANCED PCPN ACRS             
THE ERN CHAMP VLY EARLIER. N-NW LOW-LVL FLOW EXPECTED TO LINGER ACRS            
THE FA INTO EARLY ON WED...SO THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN             
SOME FORM OR ANOTHER. HAVE BROKEN OUT THE ERN CHAMP VLY ZONES TO TRY            
AND ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ACTIVITY           
FOR INCLUSION IN THE FCST INTO TONITE OR FOR NOWCAST PURPOSES.                  
UPSLOPE PARAMETERS APPEAR WK ACRS THE FA TODAY. H925-85 WIND-FLOW AND           
LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE TOO WK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THERE/S NO H5             
CUTOFF...AND DEEPER LOW-LVL MSTR IS LIMITED...SO HAVE MERELY GONE FOR           
SOME HIR POPS ACRS NE/NC VT FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND MENTIONED SOME            
ACCUMULATING SHSN POSSIBLE. SCT/CHC POPS (OR LESS) SHOULD DO IT ACRS            
THE BULK OF THE REST OF THE FA TODAY. LATEST GFS BUFR DATA SHOWS                
MAYBE SOME LK EFFECT CLDS POSSIBLE ACRS THE FAR WRN ZONES ON WED NITE           
THRU THU NITE...BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE IT FOR LES POTNL ACRS THE FA.            
HAVE LINGERED SOME MORE CLDS ACRS MUCH OF THE FA INTO TONITE WITH UPR           
TROF PASSAGE EXPECTED THEN. DRY WX EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FOR             
WED THRU THU (WITH MAYBE SOME MORE CLDS BRUSHING ACRS THE NRN TIER OF           
THE FA ON WED NITE?)...WITH COLLABORATION CONSENSUS TO PUSH BACK THE            
TIMING OF ANY SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYS FOR LATER ON THU AND THU NITE              
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. WWE SN GRAPHICS ALSO SHOW NO SN             
ACRS THE FA THRU DAY 3. SO...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACRS THE FA LATE            
ON THU TO ONLY THE ST LAW VLY AND WILL KEEP LOW CHC POPS ACRS THE NRN           
TIER ZONES ONLY ON THU NITE FOR NOW.                                            
T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS TONITE AND IN THE TEENS ON WED            
NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY 20-25F ON WED. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED           
TO WATCH THE POTNL OF SOME JUST BARELY ADVISORY CRITERIA (AOB -20F)             
WIND CHILLS ACRS THE HIR TRRN TONITE BEFORE THE WINDS DIE OFF.                  
AUTOMATED ZFP FORMATTER DOES HAVE THE MENTION OF WIND CHILLS ACRS               
THESE ZONES FOR TONITE.                                                         
.LONG TERM (FRI ONWARD)...                                                      
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO           
SOME TEMP/SKY/WIND GRIDS TO BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                  
ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                     
MURRAY                                                                          
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ERLY THIS MRNG...SPCLY IN CHMPLN           
VLY WHERE SNOW PERSISTS. ETA12 SUGGESTS SNOW WL TAPER OFF AND                   
DECREASE IN CVRG 09-12Z. FA WL BE UNDER NLY FLOW THRU THE PD. MSTR              
PROFILES SHOW FAIR AMT OF LL MSTR PERSISTING THRU THE PD AND IR STLT            
LOOP SHOWS LOTS OF CLDS UPSTREAM SO EXPECT BKN-OVC SC TO CONT WITH              
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AFT 12Z. GUSTY NW WINDS 10-20KTS WL CONTINUE              
THRU MCH OF TDA...THEN DIMINISH TNGT AS SFC RDG APPROACHES FROM THE             
W.                                                                              
KJC                                                                             
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
843 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY)...                                 
CAN SEE WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS IN/KY DISSIPATING ON SATELLITE            
LOOPS...CORRESPONDING WELL TO BACK EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW.  RUC SEEMS            
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT BRINGS RIDGING TO WHOLE CWA              
BY 09Z. TRIED TO BRING CLOUD DECREASE MORE TOWARDS THIS TIMING.                 
LINGERED A FEW -SHSN INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT EKN/SNOWSHOE BUT                 
BACKED OFF DURATION INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO REDUCED SNOWFALL GRIDS            
A TAD. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 641 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004               
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECTING ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF SHSN ACROSS THE REGION...UNTIL H500              
TROUGH/H850 THERMAL TROUGH PULL THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SHSN SHOULD                 
PROVIDE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IFR MAY BE TOUCHED BRIEFLY            
AT EKN/BKW.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH P6SM SKC EVERYWHERE BY                  
NOON...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 515 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY)...                                           
HAD SOME HARDWARE PROBLEMS HERE TODAY. PUBLIC ZONE PRODUCT TONIGHT              
WILL HAVE INDIVIDUAL COUNTIES...SO 49 SEPARATE FORECASTS IN OUR                 
CRWZFPRLX...BUT THAT MAY BE CORRECTED LATER THIS WEEK.                          
NO BIG CHANGES IN SHORT TERM. 850 THERMAL TROF PASSING 00 TO                    
06Z...SOME FLUFFY SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL DEPOSIT LOCALIZED FLUFFY             
ACCUMULATIONS OF INCH OR TWO.                                                   
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINNING QUICKLY.  HIGH PRESSURE            
TO DOMINATE INTO THURSDAY...WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
NOT IMPRESSED WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.  HAVE SOME 30/40 POPS ON               
FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND MOUNTAINS. 20 POPS FURTHER               
SOUTH.  SOME LINGERING FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
THEN DRY ON SATURDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...CL                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
224 AM MST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TEMPERATURES/LOW CHANCE OF              
PRECIPITATION TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND               
FRIDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE                  
PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. FLOW HAS DEAMPLIFIED SOME OVER THE                  
PACIFIC. BROAD AND COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL                
AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS HAS CAUSED UPSTREAM RIDGE NEAR THE WEST               
COAST TO AMPLIFY.                                                               
THIS IN TURN HAS CAUSED SYSTEM NOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION TO                
MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MAIN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTH OF             
THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE TO THE NORTH OF US. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS                  
STILL ORGANIZING...AND LOOKS TO STILL BRING A RATHER STRONG CHUNK OF            
ENERGY ACROSS OUR AREA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING                  
UPSTREAM. SURFACE TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST AS COLD FRONT IS PUSHING              
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. UNR HAD NO SOUNDING TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO           
SEE WHAT IMPACT THAT HAS ON THE MODELS.                                         
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS DID             
SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE UKMET ON HEIGHTS. THE ONE DEFICIENCY WAS               
THAT THE GFS WAS NOT QUITE LOW ENOUGH WITH HEIGHTS OVER THE PACIFIC             
NORTHWEST. GFS/ETA/UKMET DID WELL ON POSITION OF SHORTWAVES. MODELS             
ALSO INITIALIZED WELL ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THEY WERE            
NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT LOW LEVELS...              
INITIALLY THE ETA WAS DOING THE BEST. HOWEVER...BY 06Z THEY WERE                
STARTING TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS. SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS STILL SHOWING             
SURFACE LOWS NEAR DENVER AND OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE STRONGER              
LOW IS NEAR DENVER AND THE MODELS ARE WAY TO HIGH ON PRESSURES.                 
MODELS ARE FURTHER EAST AND WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH. THE ETA12 AND               
RUC HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON TROUGH POSITION. THE ETA12 HAS THE BEST             
POSITION. HOWEVER...THE RUC IS CLOSER ON THE STRENGTH. BY THE END OF            
THE DAY...THE ETA/ETA12/RUC ARE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.                       
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...THE UKMET/ETA                   
INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY BETTER...ON               
850 MB TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS. ALL MODELS WERE NEAR 2 DEGREES C              
TOO WARM FROM OKLAHOMA INTO NEBRASKA WITH THE GFS/UKMET DOING BEST.             
THE UKMET/GFS DID BETTER OVER WEST TEXAS. WILL AGAIN GO WITH A                  
BLEND OF THE MODELS SINCE ALL ARE NOT TOO FAR APART AT LEAST AT THE             
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF FLOW                
PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS.                                 
TODAY/TONIGHT...MET/MAV CAME UP ON POPS FOR TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS                
BRING IN A GOOD SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME HAVE               
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AS BOTH MODELS PUSH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC               
FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IN FACT BOTH MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO                
EACH OTHER AND ARE SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET. HOWEVER...SATELLITE                  
WOULD SAY THAT MODELS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH SYSTEM. GIVEN               
ALL FACTORS...WILL INSERT SPRINKLES INTO THE AFTEROON FOR THE ENTIRE            
AREA. WILL THEN HAVE 20-30 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THIS                   
EVENING WITH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA LOOKING TO HAVE THE              
BEST SHOT. FOR TONIGHT...KEPT PHASE AS LIQUID. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE               
THAT COULD HAVE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN EASTERN COLORADO SO PUT RW- OR              
SW- IN.                                                                         
MODELS AGREE THAT WILL HAVE DRYING...SUBSIDENCE...AND CLEARING                  
AFTER 06Z/07Z. BASED ON INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND FRONTAL TIMING...              
WILL TEND TO GO WITH THE COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND             
SOUTH WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH THE MAXES. MODELS KEEP WINDS GOING               
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER. MODELS MAY BE OVERDONE ON             
THE CLOUD COVER. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR GUIDANCE FOR MINS.                        
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL BE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET.                   
SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF SUN BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM. AT THE SAME WILL               
HAVE COLD AIR ADVECTION AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH             
NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE. SINCE WILL               
BE HAVING PLENTY OF SUN TO COUNTERACT THE COLD ADVECTION...WILL                 
GO NEAR THE GUIDANCE. WINDS WILL DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT. THE                 
COOLER MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE.                                           
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER               
THIS IS ANOTHER INTERESTING TIME PERIOD. AREA REMAINS UNDER                     
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING FROM THE NORTH             
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE MIDWEST. THE UKMET IS MUCH              
STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE. STRONG JET IS BEHIND               
THIS FEATURE. MODELS WARM IT UP FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE WESTERLY               
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AS USUAL...THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE HIGHER                 
LEVEL MOISTURE. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...WE USUALLY DO NOT GET DENSE              
CIRRUS. WILL PLAY FOR LESS CLOUDS BUT EXPECT TO HAVE COOLER                     
TEMPERATURES DUE TO STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. WILL SLIGHTLY BELOW                     
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
DUE TO COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN AND CHANGING MODEL SOLUTIONS...FEEL                 
HESITANT IN MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES FARTHER OUT. HOWEVER...TO BLEND            
A LITTLE BETTER ON SUNDAY MAXES WITH MY NEIGHBORS WILL LOWER                    
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION           
OF MY AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN THE REST OF THE 4             
TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
345 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPERATURES                 
TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
QUEBEC AND THE EASTERN CONUS AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ARE APPROACHING THE RIDGE AND ARE             
OVER MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA PRODUCING A                   
PRONOUNCED CLOUD SHIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A 1003MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO.             
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO EASTERN U.P. SURFACE              
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE AROUND 10F WARMER THAN IN FRONT OF            
IT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA              
AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. A 1038 MB            
HIGH IS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND EXPANDING INTO             
THE OHIO VALLEY.                                                                
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY MINOR            
DIFFERENCE. NO CONFIDENT WHICH IS BETTER...SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND              
OF THE ETA/GFS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND            
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR...NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY. ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE WARM FRONT WILL               
REACH EASTERN ONTARIO AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER DAKOTA MOVES INTO              
EASTERN MINNESOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL SET UP A FAIRLY             
STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR INVADING THE            
REGION WILL BRING FAIR SKIES TO THE U.P. IN THE MORNING. 275K                   
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING ONLY A NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE             
WARM FRONT. THE 275K ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWING AN INCREASE OF LIFT OVER             
THE WESTERN U.P. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON.                 
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BASE INVERSION WILL LIFT TO AROUND 900MB.                
ABOVE THE INVERSION...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY DRY...WHILE BELOW                  
CONDITIONS WILL START TO MOISTEN UP. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK DRY                  
ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION ANY SNOW YET. 24 HOUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST                 
INDICATED AIR MASS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA YESTERDAY WILL BE DRAWN                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY            
BY THE TRANSITION ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS AND HEATED BY MOSTLY                
CLEAR SKIES TODAY. A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS LOOK MOST                   
REASONABLE FOR TODAY.                                                           
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA                
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL             
ONTARIO. THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL RELOCATE OVER               
JAMES BAY. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD OVER                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. 275K ISENTROPIC                   
ANALYSIS SUGGEST WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. CONDENSATION                  
PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS             
MOIST AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. ETA FORECAST SOUNDING STILL SHOW A             
STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 900MB AND 800MB. THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT               
THE AMOUNT OF SNOW. THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD FROM WEST            
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME OUT OF THE                   
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONT. A THERMAL TROUGH AT 850MB WILL SETTLE            
OVER THE AREA CAUSING THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TO LOWER TO AROUND -8C              
OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE. THUS A LITTLE LES ENHANCEMENT              
WILL OCCUR.                                                                     
THE SHORTWAVE ENTERING LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND            
LOWER MICHIGAN. A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RUN SOUTH ACROSS                   
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO THE U.P. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING SUBSIDENCE            
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE WINDS AT THE SURFACE OUT THE                   
NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB                
WILL LOWER THE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -22C. FORECAST SOUNDING                   
SUGGEST THAT THE INVERSION WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 850MB (4500FT).                 
CONDITIONS ALSO APPEAR TO BE NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 800MB. 925MB                
WINDS KEEP AN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL                       
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS LAKE EFFECT                
SNOWS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIMIT             
THE FETCH TIME OVER THE LAKE AND REDUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.                       
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO               
THE WEST END OF THE AREA LATE ON THURSDAY.                                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT.             
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND              
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUT APPEARS THAT IT WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CWA...IT                 
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL                 
SLACKEN OVER THE AREA AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR WILL                  
ADVECT INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -10C.            
THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL INCREASE TO 200MB OVER THE               
CWA AS WELL. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD END. THERE APPEARS TO BE              
SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE RELATIVELY DRY                 
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WRNG WEST HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
348 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
LAST OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS ERODE LATER TODAY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN              
FM OH.  INCLUDED SCHC POPS EASTERN ZONES FOR -SHSN ALONG WITH SCT               
SW--.                                                                           
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT WITH RADIATION CONDITIONS SETTING UP AS HIGH             
PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BY 12Z THURSDAY.  COLDEST            
SPOTS WL BE SOUTHERN AREAS AND SNOW COVERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS GIVEN              
PROXIMITY TO ANTICYCLONE.  PKB TO CKB CORRIDOR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST            
WITH MINS NEAR 20F AS A WEAK PUFF EXISTS.                                       
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY.  INCREASED SKY               
GRIDS AS MID LVL MSTR RAPIDLY APPROACHES AFTER 18Z.  SOUTHERLY WINDS            
BUMP TEMPERATURES 10-15F WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...HOWEVER FEEL            
MAV IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWER 50S S WITH H8 TEMPS AOB 0C.  STUCK             
CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS.                                                           
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                   
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE             
APPROACHING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME.  WITH HIGH JUST SOUTH OF              
THE AREA TO THE START...VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN                
VALLEYS...COULD STILL DECOUPLE...AND...WITH MOSTLY HIGH AND MID                 
CLOUD TO START OUT...EVENING RADIATION STILL POSSIBLE.  THE SHORT IS            
STILL SHOWN STRONG ON GFS BUT WEAKER AND NOT AS FAR SOUTH ON OTHER              
MODELS.  SECOND SHORT WAVE ON ITS HEELS IS DEEPER AND FARTHER                   
SOUTH...BUT BOTH ARE LACKING IN MOISTURE.                                       
RAISED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY WHILE BACKING UP POPS JUST A BIT.  DID             
NOT FEEL MUCH CHANGE IN CONTINUITY WARRANTED WITH THIS GIVEN MODEL              
VARIABILITY.  HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY BEHIND SECOND SHORT.           
IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THINGS COULD GET INTERESTING DURING THE            
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ALL MODELS CARVE              
OUT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES AS STRONG NEGATIVE              
TILT SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODELS VARY              
AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH INCIPIENT CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AND              
HOW FAR EAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK.                                               
GFS IS FARTHEST SOUTH AND WEST WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHER POPS THIS             
AREA.  ECMWF...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE ALL FARTHER NORTH WITH INITIAL            
DEVELOPMENT AND FARTHER EAST ON TRACK.  RAISED POPS AND EDGED                   
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER THIS PERIOD BUT STILL DID NOT PAINT MUCH            
MORE THAN A BIG UPSLOPE EVENT AT THIS TIME.  EXPERIENCE AND                     
CLIMATOLOGY SUGGEST THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST SOLUTION WILL PAN OUT            
BUT THERE ARE ALWAYS EXCEPTIONS.  TIME WILL TELL...AS ALWAYS.                   
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE MAV/MEX ON TEMPERATURES...DID STAY                 
AWAY FROM THE LIKELY POPS OFF MEX ON SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004              
AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)...                                                        
MVFR WX CONTS IN THE MTNS UNTIL 12Z WHEN STRATOCU LIFTS.  UNTIL THEN            
-SHSN COULD DROP VIS BELOW 3SM IN BKW AND EKN.  VFR ELSW FOR THE                
ENTIRE FORECAST PD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 843 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY)...                                  
CAN SEE WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS IN/KY DISSIPATING ON SATELLITE            
LOOPS...CORRESPONDING WELL TO BACK EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW.  RUC SEEMS            
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT BRINGS RIDGING TO WHOLE CWA              
BY 09Z. TRIED TO BRING CLOUD DECREASE MORE TOWARDS THIS TIMING.                 
LINGERED A FEW -SHSN INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT EKN/SNOWSHOE BUT                 
BACKED OFF DURATION INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO REDUCED SNOWFALL GRIDS            
A TAD. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1244 AM EST TUE DEC 14 2004              
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES WARRANTED HERE AS PARADE OF CANADIAN AIR MASSES                
CONTINUES IN THE NW TO WNW FLOW ALOFT.  THE MAIN CHANGE IS THAT THE             
RELAXATION IN THIS PATTERN SLATED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK               
WEAK IS NOT SO RELAXED ANY LONGER.  SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING AREA                  
FRIDAY NOW SHOWN TO DIG DEEPER AND THUS MORE EFFECTIVELY DRIVES                 
ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR THIS WAY.                                          
ADJUSTED POPS AND TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND                   
FRIDAY.  LOWERED HIGHS FRIDAY CLOSER TO NEW MEX GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND            
THE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPER SHORT WAVE.                       
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...29                                                                 
LONG TERM...TRM                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1230 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                     
.AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)...                                                       
MVFR WX CONTS IN THE MTNS UNTIL 12Z WHEN STRATOCU LIFTS.  UNTIL THEN            
-SHSN COULD DROP VIS BELOW 3SM IN BKW AND EKN.  VFR ELSW FOR THE                
ENTIRE FORECAST PD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 843 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY)...                                  
CAN SEE WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS IN/KY DISSIPATING ON SATELLITE            
LOOPS...CORRESPONDING WELL TO BACK EDGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW.  RUC SEEMS            
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...AND IT BRINGS RIDGING TO WHOLE CWA              
BY 09Z. TRIED TO BRING CLOUD DECREASE MORE TOWARDS THIS TIMING.                 
LINGERED A FEW -SHSN INTO THE MORNING HOURS AT EKN/SNOWSHOE BUT                 
BACKED OFF DURATION INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ALSO REDUCED SNOWFALL GRIDS            
A TAD. TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND LEFT THEM ALONE.                        
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 641 PM EST TUE DEC 14 2004               
AVIATION (06Z TO 06Z)...                                                        
EXPECTING ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF SHSN ACROSS THE REGION...UNTIL H500              
TROUGH/H850 THERMAL TROUGH PULL THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SHSN SHOULD                 
PROVIDE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH IFR MAY BE TOUCHED BRIEFLY            
AT EKN/BKW.  CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND               
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH P6SM SKC EVERYWHERE BY                  
NOON...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...29                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
920 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT RANGE UPDATE...                                                          
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED                
TODAY, PER LATEST RUC, ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS SINCE SURFACE RIDGE               
AXIS IS PLACED OVER FORECAST AREA. XXV                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
955 AM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWS A FEW              
CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST TN AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWEST            
VIRGINIA. UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST BUT SMALL POCKET OF LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THIS AREA. THE LATEST RUC AND CROSS                 
SECTION DATA INDICATES IT SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z. SURFACE RIDGE OF               
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WILL TAKE               
OUT MORNING WORDING NORTHEAST AND REPLACE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY.                    
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TD                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
224 PM MST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT.                     
CURRENTLY: H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A DUAL LOBED TROUGH LAY               
ACROSS THE ROCKY MT REGION WED...WITH ONE CHUNK OF ENERGY ALREADY               
DROPPING DOWN THE E CO PLAINS THIS AM. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY              
SHOWED THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD FRONT HAD ALREADY DROPPED             
DOWN THE E CO PLAINS...PRODUCING CHAOTIC SKY COVER AND SOME LIGHT               
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND THE RAMPART RANGE. SFC OBS               
SHOWED THAT MUCH OF THE PLAINS HAD WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID             
50S BY THE AFTN. HOWEVER...KCOS HAD WARMED INTO THE MID 40S THIS                
AM...BUT THEN COOLED 10 DEGREES ONCE THE FRONT PASSED. ELSEWHERE...             
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH VALLEYS HAD WARMED INTO THE 30S TO AROUND           
40.                                                                             
TONIGHT: BOTH ETA AND GFS MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING DOWN            
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...SWEEPING THE THE SECOND                    
LOBE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD HELP SNOW SHOWERS TO                 
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR.                 
FORECAST TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY...SINCE DIRECTION OF THE SFC WINDS             
LATER THIS EVENING WILL HELP DICTATE MIN TEMPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS.                
ETA IS A LOT STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT...KEEPING THE SFC                
FLOW MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WOULD REALLY SOCK IN THE SOUTHERN                 
FRONT RANGE. GFS ALSO PAINTS PRECIP IN THESE AREAS BIT IS A LITTLE              
MORE RESTRAINED WITH THE QPF SINCE SFC WINDS ARE MORE N-NW. FEEL                
CONFIDENT THAT SNOW WILL FALL IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE S                 
SANGRES AND THE S FOOTHILLS. DECIDED TO GO WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR             
ZONES 74/75/87/88 STARTING AT 8 PM TONIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL 9                  
AM THURS MORN SINCE I FEEL THAT ADVISORY NUMBERS ARE CERTAINLY                  
REACHABLE. EVENING CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TONIGHT TO SEE                     
HOW THINGS ARE PROGRESSING. NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS. 850 AND 700           
MB TEMPS CHARTS SHOW A GOOD SLUG OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN...BUT                  
REALIZED MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY SKY COVER AND WINDS THAT               
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BREEZY MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DECIDED TO LEAN                  
TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS...THOUGH THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ETA             
AND GFS AND ONGOING GRIDS WAS MINIMAL. AS FOR THE CENT AND SW MTS               
AND HIGHER VALLEYS...THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED                   
SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT BRUNT OF THE OROGRAPHICS WILL BE                  
RESTRICTED TO THE S SANGRE/RATON CATCH BASIN.                                   
THURSDAY: ON THURS MODELS AGREE ON SWEEPING THE TROUGH TO THE E AND             
S...WHILE REGRESSING A CHUNK OF ENERGY TO THE FAR SW OVER AZ. THIS              
WILL PRODUCE A DRIER BUT COOL WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE CWA.                     
THEREFORE...LEFT THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 16Z SINCE AFFECTED AREA               
MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER INCH OF SNOWFALL...BUT THEN QUICKLY                   
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REGION. HAD TO ADJUST MAX TEMPS FOR THE                  
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS DOWN A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXPECTED SNOW COVER...             
BUT THIS WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON WHAT                 
HAPPENS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.                       
THANKS TO KABQ AND KBOU FOR COORDINATION. \\MOORE//                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS PERIODIC              
INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS GLANCE BY                     
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.                                                             
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS CO THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED           
FORECAST...WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD           
OUT OF CANADA THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE.  WAA OCCURS ALOFT THURS NIGHT              
AS A NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS CO.                  
HOWEVER...LOW LVLS WILL BE QUITE DRY IN WAKE OF WED NIGHT/EARLY                 
THURS SYSTEM...ESP IN MT VALLEYS...AND EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE                 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS THAT MOVES                  
OVERHEAD LATE THURS NIGHT...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO              
KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING QUICKLY AFTER SUNDOWN.  GUIDANCE VALUES FOR            
MIN TEMPS FOR KALS RANGE FROM -1 TO -9...AND HAVE DROPPED MIN TEMPS             
ACROSS POORLY DRAINING VALLEYS ACCORDINGLY.  LEE TROF DEVELOPS                  
ACROSS SE MT/ADJACENT PLAINS THUR NIGHT...SO AFTER A QUICK DROP IN              
EVENING TEMPS...BETTER DRAINING AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY              
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WARM AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL PLAN TO STAY ON THE                
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST AREAS. FRIDAY TEMPS WILL REBOUND               
NICELY THOUGH WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TROP REMAIN A LIGHT WESTERLY...           
THUS DON'T THINK MIXING WILL BE ALL THAT EFFICIENT...ESP FARTHER EAST           
ACROSS SE PLAINS. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES NEAR THE              
CO/KS BORDER.                                                                   
NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...WITH MAIN              
AFFECT BEING AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.  ETA12 SENDS A                     
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN CO BEHIND THIS FEATURE.  BRUNT OF                
COLDER AIR STAYS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...BUT IF LATEST ETA/GFS IS             
CORRECT...SOME OF THIS COOLER AIR MAY OOZE INTO THE EASTERN                     
PLAINS.  WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SAT NIGHT WITH LEE              
TROF REDEVELOPING AND COOL AIR ACROSS SE PLAINS RETREATING BACK                 
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY.   MONDAY APPEARS THE WARMEST DAY AS FLOW ALOFT              
TRANSITIONS TO WESTERLY AS NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF DROPS               
SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NRN US ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS LEE                 
TROFFING AND H7 TEMPS AROUND -2 TO +2C SHOULD RESULT IN SOME NEAR 60            
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS SE PLAINS.  BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A BIT.  NEXT             
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CO MON NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING                   
BRINGING A MORE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. CURRENT GRIDS ALREADY                    
PORTRAYED COOLING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ONLY CHANGE TO GRIDS               
MADE WAS TO ADD SOME ISOLATED POPS TO CENTRAL MTS.  -KT                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW             
     FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN               
     FOOTHILLS...ZONES 74/75/87/88.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
340 PM EST WED DEC 15 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW GENERAL WRN                   
RDG/ERN TROF UPR AIR PATTERN WITH WNW FLOW ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS.                
SHRTWV RDG NOTED OVER THE CNTRL GRT LKS THIS MRNG...WITH SFC HI PRES            
IN THE OH VALLEY. FA IN RATHER DRY (12Z PWAT 0.13 INCH/0.15 INCH AT             
GRB/MPX) SW FLOW BTWN THIS DEPARTING HI AND ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE                
SHRTWV/SFC LO MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO...AND SKIES GENERALLY MOSUNNY.             
SFC TROF EXTENDS SW FM THE LO INTO THE NRN PLAINS...BUT AIRMASS IN              
THE WAKE OF TROF IS PACIFIC/MARITIME POLAR IN NATURE. LTL PCPN NOTED            
ALG THIS BNDRY...JUST SOME -SHRA...AS BIS/INL SDNGS ALSO RATHER DRY             
(HIER PWAT ARND 0.40 INCH...BUT ALSO WARMER). REAL COLD AIR IS                  
LOCKED UP IN CNTRL CAN...AND YQD SDNG SHOWS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLO              
SHARP INVRN JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH FAIRLY              
STRG SHRTWV APRNT ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND PCPN/LES CHCS/                
TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW IN SCNTRL CAN.                                
FOR TNGT...MODELS SHOW SCNTRL CNDN SHRTWV MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO...             
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER JAMES BAY. PAC SFC TROF PROGGED TO CROSS            
THE U.P. OVERNGT WITH LTL FANFARE IN ADVANCE OF MAIN ARCTIC BNDRY...            
WHICH IS FCST TO REACH THE CNTRL ZNS TOWARD 12Z. GFS IS MUCH MORE               
BULLISH WITH QPF...BUT PREFER TO TEND TOWARD DRIER ETA/NGM/UKMET                
GIVEN LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT (WEAKENED BY PRIOR PASSAGE OF THERMAL             
RDG ASSOCIATED WITH PAC TROF)...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ON UPSTREAM SDNGS            
THIS MRNG AND ON FCST ETA SDNGS TNGT...AND PASSAGE OF MAIN SHRTWV               
JUST TO THE N. SO NOTHING MORE THAN CHC POPS OVERNGT.                           
FOCUS TMRW SHIFTS TO LES POTENTIAL ONCE COLD FNT AND LGT PRE-                   
FRONTAL -SN EXITS THE ERN CWA. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE SOMEWHAT                
MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS/UKMET FCST H85 TEMPS. BOTH THESE MODELS SHOW              
H85 TEMPS AS LOW AS -18C SURGING INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...PLENTY COLD             
ENUF FOR PURE LES IN STRG CAD REGIME. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE             
LES BELTS FAVORED BY FCST 310 FLOW OVER THE W ALL DAY AND OVER THE E            
IN THE AFTN AS COLD AIR DRIVES INTO THE AREA. LES CHART SUGS UP TO              
3"/6HRS FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH WOULD TEND TO CUT ACCUMS A            
BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR ABSENCE OF SHARP LLVL CNVGC AND DRY NATURE OF                
INCOMING AIRMASS...FCST DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH                
SECONDARY SHRTWV ENUF TO MAINTAIN CHART FCST AMTS. CONSIDERING FCST             
30-35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE MIXED LYR...WL LIKELY NEED LES/BLSN ADVY              
FOR THE FAVORED SN BELTS TMRW.                                                  
UPR HGTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS TMRW NGT WITH APRCH OF              
SHRTWV RDG...WITH MODELS SHOWING SFC HI PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD WRN             
LK SUP BY 12Z FRI. EXPECT LES/BLSN TO DIMINISH TMRW NGT OVER THE W              
WITH APRCH OF SFC HI/LWRG INVRN...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER LONGER             
OVER THE E EVEN AS THE BLSN DIMINISHES WITH WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.            
LES MAY BACK INTO MAINLY ERN MQT COUNTY BUT WEAKEN OVER LUCE COUNTY             
AS WELL WITH LLVL WINDS TENDING TO VEER MORE N DURING THE NGT. AS               
THE WIND FIELD BECOMES VERY LGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI PRES RDG             
ON FRI MRNG...A VORTEX MAY FORM OVER SCNTRL LK SUP WITHIN H85                   
THERMAL TROF. WL CARRY HI CHC POPS ARND THIS AREA IN THE MRNG...WITH            
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES ELSEWHERE NR LK SUP. OTRW...CLRG               
SKIES EARLY FRI MRNG WL GIVE WAY TO INCRSG CLDS AS WAD IN ADVANCE OF            
NEXT CLIPPER SYS ARRIVES IN THE AFTN. H85 TEMPS ARE LO ENUF THAT THE            
RETURN SLY FLOW AS THE HI EXITS TO THE E MAY INITIATE SOME LES OFF              
LK MI LATE IN THE DAY.                                                          
MEDIUM/EXTENDED MODELS ADVERTISE A CONTINUED ACTIVE NW NRN BRANCH               
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF A BLDG RDG IN THE ERN PACIFIC. TIMING/IMPACT OF              
CLIPPER SHRTWVS IS THE MAIN CONCERN SAT-WED. MODELS IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT SHOWING WAD PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF THESE                  
SHRTWVS ARRIVING FRI NGT...AND WILL PUSH FORWARD TIMING OF THE LGT              
SN CHCS FRI NGT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FNT PROGGED TO DRIVE ACRS THE FA             
DURING THE DAY ON SAT. MSTR AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WL BE LIMITED...BUT             
SUSPECT THERE WL BE A BURST OF SN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA/                    
FRONTOGENESIS/GOOD SHOT OF PVA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHARP ARCTIC                  
BNDRY. THEN ALL MODELS SHOW A FLOOD OF ARCTIC AIR ENGULFING THE UPR             
GRT LKS AS SIBERIAN HI PRES SLIDES S INTO SCNTRL CAN. OPERATIONAL               
00Z/06Z GFS IS THE COLDEST OF ALL THE RUNS SHOWING H85 TEMP FALLING             
AS LO AS -32C BY SUN MRNG. ALTHOUGH INCRSG AMPLITUDE OF ERN PACIFIC             
RDG WOULD SUPPORT A MAJOR COLD SNAP...REFCST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE                  
SUPPORTS THE LESS RADICAL SOLN OF THE ECMWF...WHICH HINTS THAT H85              
TEMPS WL FALL TO ARND -26C. SO WL GO A BIT WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL              
GFS MOS FOR TEMPS FOR SUN TEMPS. DESPITE THE EXPECTED EXTREME LK-H85            
DELTA T...THINK LES SAT NGT/SUN WL BE GREATLY LIMITED BY DRY AIR AND            
POOR MICROPHYSICS WITH SUCH LO TEMPS. BUT WL STILL GO WITH LIKELY               
POPS NEAR LK SUP FOR A HIGH POP/LO QPF EVENT. THEN CLRG AND QUITE               
COLD SUN NGT AS ARCTIC HI PRES RDG MOVES OVHD. EXPECT INCRSG CLDS               
AND A MODERATION IN TEMP ON MON AS WAD PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT               
CLIPPER SYS DROPPING INTO SCNTRL CAN MOVES INTO THE UPR LKS. CHC                
POPS APPEAR IN ORDER MON NGT-TUE NGT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF             
CLIPPER SYS BEFORE NEXT COLD AIR/LES OUTBREAK ON TUE NGT-WED.                   
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WRNG E 1/2 LK SUP.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi