AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
345 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION                
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER              
TO THE AREA.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY) 15Z AND 18Z RUC IS THE ONLY NWP MODEL        
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION ANYTHING CLOSE TO BEING REALISTIC. NEW           
18Z META NOT GOOD BUT BETTER THAN 12Z META. THAT SAID...CURRENT SURFACE         
LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO MOVE TOWARD THE KOMA AREA THIS EVENING           
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA LATE                  
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FORCING TO           
PRODUCE MAINLY RA WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA TONIGHT UP THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.         
DRY PUNCH SHOULD SHUT DOWN MOST OF THE PRECIP AFTER 06Z BEFORE VORT MAX         
ARRIVES TOWARD MORNING. LINGERING SHRA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY         
A BREAK FOR MID DAY. NEXT VORT MAX TO ARRIVE ABOUT MID AFTERNOON SHOULD         
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE             
CWFA.  ...08...                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONGER TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) PRIMARY FORECAST                 
CONCERNS INTO THE LONG TERM ARE THREE-FOLD. FIRST IS THE RESIDUAL CHANCE        
OF PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING AS A LOW PULLS EAST OF THE AREA.  THE SECOND           
IS MIN TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED FROST...         
OR EVEN ISOLATED FREEZE FAR NORTH.  THE THIRD IS A COLD FRONT                   
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY STALLING IN OR NEAR THE AREA FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING         
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                              
A COLD POOL AT 500MB...ALONG WITH PVA...WILL PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SUNDAY EVENING...WITH           
RAPID CLEARING COMMENCING BY LATE EVENING.  MONDAY WILL SEE BREEZE TO           
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.  TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE         
MERCURY FALL...BUT A LIGHT WEST WIND AND SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL                
PROBABLY PREVENT A FREEZE FAR NORTH.  GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...FROST            
ALSO ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE.  AFTER THAT...QUIET THRU WEDNESDAY...WITH          
MODERATING TEMPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE           
SEVERE WX THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  FRONT MAY STALL TO THE SOUTH          
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE RIDING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...             
BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.  AFTER THAT...A POSSIBLE TROF SATURDAY            
AT 500MB WITH A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE.                                           
MODEL CONSISTENCY IS MODERATELY GOOD THRU THE LONG TERM.  WILL MAKE FEW         
CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.  ...REA...                                         
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
08/REA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1142 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MRNG UPDATE WAS PCPN TRENDS...BUT ALSO BUMPED UP            
WNDS A BIT AND LOWERED HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO.  CURRENT SITUATION HAS             
ANTI-CYCLONIC JET SEGMENT ARCING FM KS INTO SRN GRTLKS AHD OF RCKYS             
UPR LVL TROF.  UPR LVL DVRGNC ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATURES HAS BEEN               
INCRG OVR NE...AND FM TX INTO IL.  SHRT WV LIFTING ACRS KS HAVING               
MOST IMPACT ON LCL WX WITH DEEP LYR QG FORCING LIFTING INTO NE AND              
WRN IA.  THEMODYNAMIC FORCING IN TERMS OF H85/H7 THETA-E ADVCTN AND             
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING LIFTING NWD WITH Q CNVGNC TOO AS XPCD SO WE             
HAVE PLENTY OF UVM IN PLACE.  ONLY MINIMIZING FACTOR IS LACK OF                 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATTM.  HWVR LYR THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND                    
SHOWALTER INDICES INDC THAT WE SHOULD START SEEING A BIT MORE IN THE            
WAY OF THUNDER BY MID-LATE AFTN.                                                
PLENTY OF STRATUS AND LOW LVL MSTR IN PLACE UPSTREAM SO WE PROBABLY             
WILL NOT CLR OUT TIL AFT HEATING IF AT ALL WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE OUR            
SFC BASED THREAT.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER WITH              
15Z RUC MUCAPES NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND SHOWALTERS ONLY             
DOWN TO MINUS 2 THRU 03Z.  0-6KM SHEAR INCRS TO AOA 50KTS ABT THAT              
TIME HWVR SO WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW SVR TSTMS DRNG THE EVE EVEN               
WITH THAT MINIMAL INSTABILITY...MOST LIKELY HAIL OR WND.                        
WL UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.                                         
INCREASED WNDS SOMEWHAT TOO BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCRG PRES                
FALL CNTR LIFTING INTO ERN NE.  16Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS LOW INVOF KHUT              
WITH PRIMARY WRMFNT INTO AR...BUT SCNDRY BNDRY STARTING TO SHOW UP              
INTO IL.  WITH UPR LVL DVRGNC AND WRMFNT JUST TO THE S...WE MAY SEE             
SOME GRAVITY WV DVLPMT LATE WITH ELY WND GUSTS LATER TDA WHICH IS               
QUANTIFIED BY RUC DUCT FUNCTION 00-03Z.                                         
WITH EAST WNDS AND PCPN...DID NOT XPC MUCH OF A RISE TDA WHICH IS               
CLOSE TO CURRENT FCST.  PRETTY MUCH LEFT IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF A                  
DEGREE DOWNWARD.  NO CHGS TO LATER PDS OUTSIDE OF BLEND INTO TNGT.              
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA...             
WITH MOST OF CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SRN BRANCH FLOW. FAIRLY               
POTENT SHRTWV NOTED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD UPR               
RDG OVER THE GRT LKS AND DEPARTING 1032MB SFC HI NEAR JAMES BAY.                
LLVL AIRMASS OVER UPR GRT LKS UNDER THE RDG IS QUITE DRY PER 00Z                
APX/GRB SDNGS...WHICH SHOW KINX -28/-18. ALTHOUGH ACTUAL TEMP THRU              
PROFILE IS ABV 0C...WBLB TEMPS ARE GENERALLY ARE MAINLY BLO 0C...               
EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR SFC LYRS ON THE GRB SDNG. BUT SFC WBLB TEMPS                
OVER MUCH OF FA BLO 0C WITH SFC DWPTS AS LOW AS 10F AT A FEW                    
PLACES...AND ACTUAL 01Z TEMP AT CMX DOWN TO 32 (DEWPT 26). OTRW...              
THICKENING HI CLDS NOTED ACRS THE FA AS HIER LVL MSTR STREAMING NEWD            
IN ADVANCE OF LIFTING SHRTWV AND OVRRNG THE LLVL COLD...DRY AIR                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HI. RA IN ADVANCE OF SFC/H85 WARM FNT             
IN THE MID MS VALLEY HAS REACHED AS FAR N AS A MSP-MSN LINE AT 00Z.             
H85 DWPT UP TO 7C AT DVN JUST N OF H85 WARM FNT.                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE TIMING ARRIVAL OF PCPN SHIELD ADVANCING             
FM THE S AND PCPN TYPE WITH COLD/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.                          
LATEST RUC/ETA GUIDANCE INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF PCPN WL REACH MNM             
ARND 06Z...ONT-MQT-ISQ ARND 09Z...AND CMX-WHITEFISH PT ARND 12Z...IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOING FCST AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/HIER H85 DWPTS TO             
THE S OVERSPREAD FA IN ADVANCE OF WARM FNT. ALTHOUGH CONCERNED                  
INITIAL DRY AIR WL RETARD NWD PROGRESSION OF PCPN...OBSVD LEADING               
EDGE OF RA IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER MODEL FCSTS (MAY EVEN BE             
A TAD FARTHER N). GFS/ETA ALSO SHOW AXIS OF H4-2 DVGC OVERSPREADING             
THE AREA AS WELL WITH APRCH OF MAIN SHRTWV...SO COMBINATION OF WAD/             
MOISTENING/UPR DVGC SHOULD BE ENUF TO SATURATE A SUFFICIENT DEPTH OF            
ATMOSPHERE. PCPN TYPE CONCERNS PRIMARILY DUE TO LO WBLB TEMPS IN                
PLACE IN ADVANCE OF PCPN SHIELD. HOWEVER...RUC AND ETA PLAN VIEW/               
SNDG FCSTS INDICATE H100-85 THKNS/WBLB PROFILE AT TIME OF PCPN                  
ARRIVAL WL BE ARND 1320M/SUFFICIENTLY DEEP > 0C FOR JUST RA AS H85              
DWPT QUICKLY RISES ABV 0C AND RADIATION FM CLD DECK PUSHES TEMP ABV             
0C IN ABSENCE OF NR SFC CAD. ON THE OTHER HAND...CRUDER 12Z/18Z GFS             
FCST SDNGS SHOW MAINLY SN FALLING OVER AT LEAST THE NRN PORTIONS OF             
FA (EVEN THOUGH GFS MOS FCST INDICATES RA). CONSIDERING LO WBLBS                
OBSVD...HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN A MIX WITH SN/PL OVER THE NRN TIER ZNS             
AT THE ONSET OF PCPN. HOWEVER...DURATION OF SUB FRZG TEMPS AT MOST              
PLACES WL BE JUST AT ONSET OF PCPN WHEN EVAP COOLING MECHANISM WL               
COME INTO PLAY BEFORE HIER DWPTS/TEMPS IN CLD LYR ARRIVE TO BOOST               
SFC TEMP ABV 32F. SINCE SFC TEMPS TOPPED OUT WELL ABV FRZG TDAY AND             
SFCS ARE WARM UNDER THICKENING CLD DECK...NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH                
POTENTIAL FOR SN ACCUMULATION OR FZRA AS DURATION OF SUB 32 AIR TEMP            
WL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO LOWER SFC TEMPS TO FRZG.                                
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THERMAL PROFILES IN BUFKIT ANALYSIS AND ETA40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS                
INDICATE A COLD RAIN EVENT EARLY ON SUN...THEN TURNING TO A MIX OF              
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM LAKE INFLUENCES FOR             
THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA SUN AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE INTERIOR                   
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUN NIGHT. EXPOSED SURFACES AND LOW             
LEVEL TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ONLY                
TRACE AMOUNTS. TEMPS ABOVE 925MB DROP TO BELOW 0C...AND SURFACE                 
TEMPS SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE MID 30S AS CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH                  
CONSTANT PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP WARMING TO A MINIMUM.                          
LATE SUN EVENING ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS DRY             
SLOT MOVES THROUGH CWA. BY MON MORNING...MAIN COLD FRONT REACHES                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVES THROUGH CWA BY MON AFTERNOON. LIGHT             
SHOWERS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS LOW LEVELS MARGINALLY COLD              
ENOUGH AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -10C PER ETA. MID TO UPPER                 
LEVELS ARE ALSO PRETTY UNSTABLE FROM COOLING ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS               
DROP AROUND -30C. THIS WOULD GIVE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND                  
7C/KM...AND WITH ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICTING GOOD LOW TO             
MID LEVEL MOISTURE...ANY DIURNAL CU THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY                    
CONTINUE TO BUILD...AND MAYBE EVEN GENERATE AN ISOLATED                         
THUNDERSTORM.                                                                   
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON MON BEGINS TO SHIFT              
EASTWARD...AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER                
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND LATE MON NIGHT INTO             
TUE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS 500MB SHORTWAVE SKIRTING ALONG                 
SOUTHERN CANADA APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CORRESPONDING             
SURFACE LOW SLIDES INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY TUE NIGHT AND PUSHES A WARM             
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. BY TUE AFTERNOON...INCREASING CLOUDS OUT AHEAD            
OF WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE CWA...AND GFS INDICATES                  
ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT ON THE 290K-300K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE               
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.            
GFS INDICATES 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 6C/KM WITH FRONT...SO                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION A POSSIBILITY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                       
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL DEPICT THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUE              
SLIDING EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WED. MODELS SHOW A COUPLE             
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA AT THIS TIME...ONE A                   
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH...AND THE OTHER                
SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST REACHING THE SW STATES BY                    
FRI...THEN MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER                 
VALLEY PER GFS. GFS SHOWS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM INFLUENCING THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES MORE...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THU.                 
ECMWF AND UKMET DEPICT THE SAME SURFACE PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO THE             
CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT...HAVING IT MOVE             
THROUGH CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRI.                                                 
MORE INTERESTING IS SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE                 
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA TUE NIGHT AND REACHING            
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DEPICT +12C 850MB            
ISOTHERM APPROACHING THE WESTERN CWA AT 12Z WED...AND MOST OF CWA               
UNDER THIS WARM AIR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ECMWF IS STILL WARMER THAN              
GFS WITH 850MB TEMPS APPROACHING +16C ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. MIXING            
DOWN FROM +12C WOULD GIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER                      
70S...WHICH IS WAY ABOVE CURRENT EXTENDED GFS GUIDANCE VALUES OF                
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WILL UP HIGHS TO LOWER 70S TO REFLECT THE WARM            
AIR AND MECHANICAL MIXING FROM 850MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS...BUT WILL            
HOLD OFF ON ANYTHING WARMER AS SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER BEHIND                
WARM FRONT MIGHT INHIBIT SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT...ESPECIALLY OUT                
EAST. GFS DEPICTS SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY                     
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL HELP DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS            
WARMUP LATE IN DAY.                                                             
MODELS SHOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF SURFACE LOW AS IT            
MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONSENSUS IS FRONTAL PASSAGE                 
OCCURRING WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A                  
POSSIBILITY WITH FROPA AS LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW ZERO AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT...INTERIOR ZONES APPROACH -4C...AND DECENT INSTABILITY IN             
THE MID LEVELS AS LAPSE RATES APPROACH 7C/KM.                                   
SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WEAK                  
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES. THOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD               
RETURN TO CWA AS UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY AND                
NORTHERN ONTARIO...ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO REACH               
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FRI             
NIGHT AND SAT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE UPPER             
TROUGH IS SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF THE REGION...SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO            
REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL LEVELS.                              
LAROSA                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
530 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPDATING ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF WW 119.                       
------------------------------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--------           
.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO               
TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW AREA IS NOT EXTREMELY                       
UNSTABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE LINE TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. MAY SEE             
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. THE BEST               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. RUC ESTIMATES OF              
LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AROUND 20-30KTS.  FOR SUNDAY               
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS POINT. NOT              
SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT. IF THE LINE CLEARS THE                
AREA...ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE STRONG STORMS. BUT IF SYSTEM GETS HUNG             
UP NEAR THE RIVER...EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BEST AREA FOR                 
DEVELOPMENT. IF SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST...WILL NOT GET SAME                
WARMING/INSTABILITY AS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE            
INTO THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE STRONGER                
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG              
ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP             
INTO THE AREA MONDAY...WITH AVN SHOWING DPT IN THE MID 30S. NOT SURE            
AIR WILL REALLY BE THAT DRY...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. MOSTLY              
CLEAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON                    
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE                           
INCREASING...EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE                
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND INCLUDED SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY AND             
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST               
QPF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEVERE                
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 UNTIL 7.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...SVA MSZ053-059>061                                                         
LA...SVA LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026                                             
AR...SVA ARZ074-075                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
330 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO               
TRACK EAST INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW AREA IS NOT EXTREMELY                       
UNSTABLE...SO DO NOT EXPECT THE LINE TO GET OUT OF CONTROL. MAY SEE             
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. THE BEST               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WAS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. RUC ESTIMATES OF              
LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT VERY STRONG AROUND 20-30KTS.  FOR SUNDAY               
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING SEVERE IN THE ZONES AT THIS POINT. NOT              
SURE HOW FAR EAST THIS LINE WILL MAKE IT. IF THE LINE CLEARS THE                
AREA...ENTIRE CWA SHOULD SEE STRONG STORMS. BUT IF SYSTEM GETS HUNG             
UP NEAR THE RIVER...EASTERN ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BEST AREA FOR                 
DEVELOPMENT. IF SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST...WILL NOT GET SAME                
WARMING/INSTABILITY AS EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE            
INTO THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING THE STRONGER                
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 18-00Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HANG              
ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP             
INTO THE AREA MONDAY...WITH AVN SHOWING DPT IN THE MID 30S. NOT SURE            
AIR WILL REALLY BE THAT DRY...BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. MOSTLY              
CLEAR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON                    
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED CLOUDS ON THURSDAY WITH MOISTURE                           
INCREASING...EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCE                
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND INCLUDED SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BOUNDARY AND             
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST               
QPF SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SEVERE                
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119 UNTIL 7.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...SVA MSZ053-059>061                                                         
LA...SVA LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026                                             
AR...SVA ARZ074-075                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
830 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
CLOUDS HAVE DECREASED OVER ALL BUT FAR SRN PORTIONS OF CWA EARLY                
THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC NOT INDICATING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF                 
DRYING THROUGH THE BULK OF THE ATMS BUT LOW LVLS SHOULD SHOULD SEE A            
BIT MORE DRYING AS NE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG LOWER DEW POINTS...AND             
TEMPS INTO THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE LOWER TEMPS OVER NRN 2/3RDS OF            
CWA FOR TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES. SRN AREAS NOT LIKELY TO SEE AS MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF TEMP DROPS DUE TO PRESENCE OF CLOUDS. RUC ALSO                    
INDICATING MORE OF A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS IN LINE WITH CURRENT               
OBS AND FORECAST.                                                               
.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES TO THE S OF THE AREA...WITH NE TO E             
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CURRENT FCST INITIALIZED WELL.  NO                
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.                                                    
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MLF/RAP                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
356 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC PRESSURE FIELD INDICATES FRONT CURRENTLY ON TOP OF THE ILM CWA.             
NOT MUCH PUSH LEFT TO THIS BOUNDARY...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE                
COAST WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES A RESEMBLENCE OF A SURGE IN THE               
CAPE LOOKOUT AREA MOVING SOUTHWARDS. SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY ALSO                   
EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY AND KLTX 88-D. THIS INDICATES SFC FRONT NOT              
ALL THAT POWERFUL ANYMORE. WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE                
ILM CWA OVERNIGHT AND LIFT IT NORTH DURING SUN. PROGGED SYNOPTIC                
PRESSURE PATTERN INDICATES RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE FA...WITH ITS              
AFFECTS FELT MORE THAN THE COLD FRONT...TONIGHT AND SUN. AS A                   
RESULT...SYNOPTIC NE-E-SE FLOW IN THAT ORDER WILL OCCUR DURING THE              
NEXT 24 HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES...WHEREAS             
SC COUNTIES WILL GO FROM AN E-SE DIRECTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
WILL BE  PLENTIFUL TONIGHT THRU MON NITE. AS A RESULT...CULD SEE                
SOME STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF FROM                  
PLACING IT IN THE GRIDS AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT DECIPHER. SFC                 
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUN. STILL BORDERLINE ON                       
POPS...BEING UVVS NOT ALL THAT EXCITING AND TEMPS AT 7H WARMING A               
FEW DEGREES. WILL LEAVE THEM OUT AT THIS TIME.                                  
PROGRESSION OF UPPER FEATURES TO FINALLY AFFECT THE ILM CWA...WITH A            
DECENT UPPER AMPLITUDE TROF TO SETTLE IN BY TUE. SFC COLD FRONT TO              
PUSH THRU THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED BY CAA ON TUE...WHICH WILL             
BE PARTIALLY COUNTERED SOMEWHAT BY A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY IN THE                
WIND FIELD. WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS ON TUE DUE TO THE UPPER               
TROF LINE LAGGING AND A VORT SWINGING THROUGH IT. WINDS TO DECOUPLE             
AFTER MIDNIGHT OR 3 AM WED MORNING...UNDER DECENT RAD CONDITIONS.               
WILL GO WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. FOR THE REST OF               
WED AND THU...DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DAYTIME CU POSSIBLE ON                
THU. FOR FRI AND SAT...RATHER NOISY AND CHAOTIC 5H PICTURE WEST OF              
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CWA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF               
UPPER TROF AND AWAITS THE NEXT IMPULSE FOR RE-AMPLIFICATION. WILL               
INCLUDE POPS FRI AND POSSIBLY LATE SAT...OR MAY JUST HOLD OFF UNTIL             
SUN.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SOMEWHAT SLOPPY WIND FIELD OVER THE ILM CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BACKDOOR            
COLD FRONT HAS NOT QUITE REACHED CAPE LOOKOUT...BUT AS THE SHAPE OF             
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CHANGES A WIND SHIFT LINE IS NOTED PARALLEL TO            
THE COAST.                                                                      
IN THE NEAR TERM...THE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE               
WIND FIELD AND I HAVE FOLLOWED IT INTO THIS EVENING.  EXPECT EAST               
WINDS OVER THE NC WATERS BY AROUND 00Z...AND OVER ALL THE WATERS                
OVERNIGHT...WHETHER IT IS DRIVEN BY FRONTAL DYNAMICS OR JUST THE                
EVOLUTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  NOT MUCH PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT             
SO WILL DOWNPLAY ANY SURGE...10-15 KT SHOULD DO IT TONIGHT.                     
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD             
FRONT.  WILL KEEP THINGS JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH 20 KT AND               
4-5 FT.  MODEST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT...AND PERHAPS A                
SECONDARY SURGE LATE TUE AS UPPER TROF MOVES OFFSHORE.  WILL KEEP               
SPEEDS CAPPED AT 20 KT...AND OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL HOLD SEAS IN              
CHECK.  BENIGN CONDITIONS WED-THU WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND                   
OFFSHORE...RESPECTIVELY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WILMINGTON     60  79  64  81 /  10  10  10  50                                 
FLORENCE       60  83  62  80 /  10  10  10  50                                 
LUMBERTON      59  81  62  81 /  10  10  10  50                                 
MYRTLE BEACH   61  75  64  78 /  10  10  10  50                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MARINE...RAS                                                                    
PUBLIC...DCH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
200 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
GOOD MODEL AND FCST CONISTENCY AGAIN TODAY...THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES              
WERE NEEDED TO FCST THROUGH DAY 7 (NEXT FRIDAY).                                
FRIDAY'S GFS DID DO BETTER WITH 500 MB UPPER LOW AND ASSOC PCPN                 
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA THAN ETA...AND WITH GFS                
GOOD CONTINUITY ON NEXT WED SYSTEM WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS MODEL WITH              
OVERALL FEATURES.                                                               
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS NOW UP IN CANADA WITH 85H WINDS GRADUALLY                
WEAKENING TO AROUND 20 KTS SOUTH AND 40 KTS FAR NORTH ACCORDING 18Z             
RUC ANALYSIS. AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING AHEAD OF COLD                      
FRONT...SEEING SFC WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH PAST HOUR OR TWO AND EXPECT            
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE.  THUS EXPECT WILL BE ABLE TO DROP WIND                  
ADVISORY AT 4 PM ZFP ISSUANCE.                                                  
UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH PCPN LIKELY              
TO ADVECT INTO ECNTRL SD THIS EVENING AS SFC-800 MB LAYER                       
MOISTENS...BUT STILL LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME.  TO OUR                       
NORTH...STRONG LOW OVER NRN SASK TO MOVE EAST INTO MANITOBA WITH                
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO DVL REGION 00-02Z THEN INTO THE VALLEY TOWARD            
06Z AND THEN INTO FAR ERN AREAS BEFORE 12Z.  ONLY NARROW BAND OF                
HIGH/MID CLDS WITH FRONT WITH NEBRASKA SYSTEM KEEPING MOISTURE AT               
BAY. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO SRN MN TONIGHT SOME MOISTURE GETS               
BROUGHT NORTH JUST AHEAD OF FRONT AND PER PREV FCST WOULD EXPECT A              
DECENT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER NW/WCNTRL MN OVERNIGHT.  WILL LEAVE IN               
LOW POP FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SNEAK             
IN (ESPECIALLY SOUTH).                                                          
ON SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...THIS TIME FROM THE                   
NORTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION.  QUESTION IS ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS                
EAST AND ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE AFTN WITH -30C 500 MB TEMP              
COLD POOL DROPPING OVR NE ND/NW MN.  500 MB VORT SWINGS FROM NW ND              
INTO SE ND/CNTRL MN SUN AFTN AND WITH COOL POOL OVERHEAD DID MENTION            
ISOLD SHOWERS NORTH OF VORT TRACK (GENERALLY DVL-GFK-ADC LINE).  ONE            
NEGATIVE IS STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL INTO            
SE ND...AND THUS LEFT OUT MENTION THERE FOR NOW.  850 MB COOLING                
CONTINUES SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION BEGINS MON                
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT CANADIAN LOW.  LOWERED HIGHS MONDAY A FEW                   
DEGREES...BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS.                                                
ON TUESDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW                
WHICH SHOULD HELP WARMING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S.                              
WEDNESDAY REMAIN A TOUGH CHALLENGE...AS STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS                 
SOUTH THROUGH NRN AREAS BY 18Z AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z.              
SHARP TEMP GRADIENT LIKELY DURING DAY. DID MODIFY HOURLY GRIDDS ON              
WEDNESDAY TO BETTER DEFINE COOLING DURING DAY NORTHERN AREAS.  DID              
CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER WED AFTN...THOUGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF                
FRONT IS MEAGER AND INSTABILITY WEAK. BEST BET LOOKS LIKE                       
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MOVE THRU THE FCST AREA...ENDING              
BY 12Z THU.                                                                     
.LONG RANGE (THU-SAT)...                                                        
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WRN CANADA FORCING POLAR VORTEX SOUTH TOWARD            
ONTARIO AND KEEPING AREA IN COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.  NEXT LOW AND              
FRONT IN THIS NORTHWESTERLY DUE ON FRIDAY...WITH AGAIN MOISTURE                 
LOOKING MEAGER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DTR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1029 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING NEARLY CLEAR SKY THIS MORNING...              
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CU NEAR TN LINE. SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES BACK DOOR             
COLD FRONT S OF GMU. POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY SURFACE AIR LOCATED SW            
OF SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND DRIER AIR WORKING S ALONG BLUE RIDGE             
AS WELL. BELT OF MODEST DEW POINT POOLING...60 DEG... LOCATED ALONG             
FRONT. ADJUSTED WIND FOR FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION.             
ALTHOUGH TRIMMED CLOUD AMOUNTS DOWN THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL E                  
COMPONENT SHOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUD DEVLOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN                     
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT. RUC LOW LEVEL THICKNESS              
SUPPORTS CURRENT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHEN ADJUSTING FOR                
CLOUDS.                                                                         
KGSO SOUNDING YIELDED CAPE OF 1600 WITH AN 80 DEGREE SURFACE                    
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT NEAR 60. KFFC SOUNDING CAPPED AT                      
700...WITH WARM ADVECTION APPARENT AT THAT LEVEL IN 12Z ANALYSIS.               
THIS WARM ADVECTION COMES TO AN ABRUPT HALT SOMEWHERE NEAR SAVANNAH             
RIVER AS FLOW TURNS E ACROSS RIDGE AXIS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO                 
ISOTHERMS...LIMITING CAPPING S PORTION OF AREA. ADJUSTING DEW POINT             
TO VALUES ALONG FRONT...AND USING MAX T NEAR 85 WOULD YIELD A                   
SOUNDING JUST BARELY CAPPED AT 700 MB. WILL MAINTAIN PREVIOUS CHANCE            
POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE TN LINE...AND LEAST E                
BORDER.                                                                         
LITTLE WIND SHEAR S PORTION OF AREA. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BEHIND                   
FRONT N PORTION...WITH MODEST SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. BIGGEST CONCERN              
FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAIL WITH RELATIVELY MOIST LOW LEVELS ALONG                  
FRONT...AND SOME DRYING MID LEVELS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
KGSO AND KFFC SOUNDINGS YIELD MIXING HEIGHTS ABOUT 100 FT BELOW                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED TRANSPORT WIND TO FOLLOW LATEST              
THINKING ON FRONTAL TIMING. MINOR CHANGES TO RH FIELDS BASED ON                 
LATEST ADJUSTED 06Z AVN DEW POINTS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GSP  83  60  74  61 /  40  40  30  50                                           
AND  85  62  78  62 /  30  30  30  50                                           
CLT  81  58  72  61 /  30  30  30  50                                           
HKY  79  57  70  58 /  30  40  30  60                                           
AVL  78  56  72  54 /  40  40  40  70                                           
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1000 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE WEATHER WAS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING,BUT WILL PROBABLY GET                  
STORMY OVER SOME AREAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
AT 13Z, SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM                  
NEAR JACKSON, TENNESSEE TO JUST SOUTH OF CROSSVILLE, SEPARATING                 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND CLOUDY SKIES                 
ACROSS THE NORTH. BY MID-MORNING, A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN               
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE NIGHT, HAD LIFTED NORTH              
INTO KENTUCKY.                                                                  
THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA WAS MOIST, BUT RELATIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER,              
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THINGS ARE EXPECTED                 
TO DESTABILIZE RATHER RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS A STRONG PUNCH                 
OF MID LEVEL DRYING SURGES NORTHWARD OUT OF MISSISSPPI AND ALABAMA.             
MEANWHILE, LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND PROVIDE A GOOD BREEDING GROUND           
FOR CONVECTION. BY MID AFTERNOON LI'S DECREASE TO AROUND -4 OVER THE            
MID STATE AND THE SWEAT INDEX INCREASES FROM 116 TO A LITTLE OVER               
300. ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY SEND TEMPERATURES TO 80                 
DEGREES OR ABOVE AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN                
COUNTIES (AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS).            
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 1.25 INCHES, IMPLYING POTENTIAL FOR             
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER OUR              
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES.                                           
MID-LEVEL DRYING TODAY SUGGESTS THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE VIL OF THE DAY IS 40,                
WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL               
YESTERDAY.                                                                      
BELIEVE 12Z NGM GUIDANCE IS NOT PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL PROBABLY GO WITH SCATTERED           
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE TEXT AND USE POPS IN THE 30-50%             
RANGE. THE NGM MAY BE KEYING ON WEAK 700MB CAP DEVELOPING THIS                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE                        
TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80, WHICH SHOULD               
BE COMMON IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST                
CAPES ARE ABOVE 1000 J/KG.                                                      
WILL PROBABLY AMEND FORECAST TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AREA-WIDE FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON, AND ADD THE MENTION OF "WARM AND HUMID." WILL ALSO              
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, WITH DAMAGING WINDS.              
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 FOR NORTH AND TO               
THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TODAY, AND BUMP PLATEAU TEMPERATURES                        
INTO THE "MID TO UPPER 70S."                                                    
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLE                    
TENNESSEE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON (AND, ACTUALLY, THROUGH SUNDAY               
AS WELL).                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH NW-NCNTRL THROUGH SUN.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
733 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NO PLANS TO CHG THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION TO THE WEST               
NEAR DRT BCMG BETTER ORGANIZED.  RUC/MESOETA CONT THE TREND OF                  
INCREASING CONVECTION ALONG THE CDFNT THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY                   
MOVING MCS EWD ACRS THE CWA TDA...AND THEN STALLING OVER THE ERN                
CWA THIS EVENING.  WITH SOILS GETTING A GOOD SOAK LAST NIGHT...                 
SEE NO REASON TO DROP/CHANGE WATCH AT THIS TIME.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
REMAINS OF LARGE BOW ECHO OVR THE ERN CWA SPREADING OUT WITH MAIN               
THREAT OF SVR OVER THE SERN COUNTIES OVR THE NEXT HOUR SO MIGHT DROP            
THE SVR WATCH ON THE NEW PACKAGE IF BOW EXITS THE SE CWA.  THE HEAVY            
RAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THE NE CWA INTO NORTHEAST TX AS THE MCS                
LIFTS ENEWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE LINE OF CONVECTION OVR N TX ALONG            
THE CDFNT...AND THEREFORE PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD HIGHER GFS QPF                  
AMOUNTS. REDEVELOPING CONVECTION ALREADY STARTED IN THE WRN CWA WHERE           
GOOD CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ALONG THE CDFNT AND THIS REDEVELOPMENT WAS           
INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS/ETA. WILL LEAVE FFA AS IS FOR NOW AND MAY             
ADJUST LATER DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE                
WEST...SO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP WEST.  HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO END BY                
TONIGHT THE CDFNT MOVES TO THE COAST AND INFLOW PUSHES EAST...HOWEVER           
CONT CHC POPS SUNDAY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE FNT...THEN               
DRYING MON-TUE AS THE UPR TROF MOVS TO THE EAST...NO CHANGES FOR WED-           
THU WITH SLGT CHC POPS AS MSTR RETURNS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROF.                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  61  78  58 /  70  50  40  10                 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  61  76  54 /  70  50  40  10                 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           78  64  80  59 /  50  40  20  10                 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  62  75  58 /  60  50  40  10                 
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING               
THRU 4 PM.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
01/13/PM/JB                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
300 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING THAN THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...AS BAND             
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES STREAMING E/NEWD AROUND 30 MPH BETWEEN         
I-20/30 AND A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE CORRIDOR AS OF 08Z. FROM              
U/A ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK...SEEMS A BOUNDARY AROUND 850MB IS                
LOCATED IN THIS VCNTY AND WILL ONLY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY SEWD BY THIS             
AFTN...AS PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK LLJ 20-30 KTS FEEDING 11-13 DEG C             
850 MB DEW PTS INTO THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT             
OVER IT...ALONG WITH RRQ OF 70-90 UPPER JET ANCHORED FROM OK...NEWD             
INTO MID MS VALLEY WITH SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY ENE ALONG             
SRN PERIPHERY OF IT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE                    
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFICULT TEMP/POP FCST TO SAY THE LEAST                  
THROUGH THIS EVE. LEANING STRONGLY TO THE ETA/UKMET/RUC FCST HERE AS            
OTHER MODELS TOO BULLISH/FAR SOUTH WITH DRIER AIR...LOW LVL                     
FOCUS/QPF. WILL GO HIGH POPS I-20 CORRIDOR TO KTPL-KPSN LINE AS                 
DRIER AIR NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WILL GO             
BELOW MOS IN BOUNDARY AREA...WITH HIGHS A CAT WARMER ON BOTH                    
NW/SE FRINGES OF CWA. CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T              
IGNORE SATELLITE...U/A...AND RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE OVER SRN                   
ROCKIES THEN SWEEPS THROUGH TNGT AND WILL CONTINUE 20-30% POPS WITH LOW         
CONFIDENCE ON CHAOTIC SFC PATTERN WITH BOUNDARIES GALORE AND MSTR               
AVAILABILITY/DEPTH...BEFORE FINALLY SEEING UPPER FLOW GO W/NWLY AND             
SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO N TX IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER              
GT LAKES ON MON WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS/COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ONE MORE MILD SPRING DAY TUES...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING OVER            
THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN A                
RETURN TO BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE           
WEEK. MANY DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN MODELS LATE WEEK ON ROCKIES                 
SYSTEM AND SLOW APPROACH OF SFC FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN                
PLAINS. VERY SUSPECT ON USUALLY TOO FAST/STRONG GFS SOLUTION AND                
WILL BUY OFF ON SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. THUS...CONTINUED VERY LOW         
POPS BY WEEK/S END AND THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE.                 
&&                                                                              
05/                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES...                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   72  55  76  54 /  60  20  20   0                         
WACO, TX               70  56  77  53 /  90  30  30   0                         
PARIS, TX              74  52  74  50 /  40  20  20   0                         
DENTON, TX             75  54  75  52 /  30  20  20   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           74  54  75  52 /  30  20  20   0                         
DALLAS, TX             72  55  76  54 /  60  20  20   0                         
TERRELL, TX            71  55  75  52 /  80  20  20   0                         
CORSICANA, TX          70  56  76  52 /  80  30  30   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             73  57  78  53 /  60  30  30   0                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
900 AM MDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST RUC CONFIRMS RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS IN THAT            
SHORT WAVE OVER COLORADO WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER              
COMPARED TO GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS.  HAVE UPDATED FORECAST            
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AND                
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAVE ALSO TRIMMED BACK HIGHS            
INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE WEST TWO TIERS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD               
COVER.  FORECAST ALREADY SENT.                                                  
$$                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1023 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                     
.PUBLIC...HRLY TEMPS RUNNING CPL DEGREES WRMR THAN FCST VALUES. RUC             
SHOWG DCRSG MSTR DURING THE AFTN HRS. THRFR HV UPPD MAXES A CPL                 
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN NRN SXNS WHR SKIES HV BEEN MSTLY CLR FOR                
MUCH OF THE MORNING. HV BEEN TOYING WI IDEA OF POPS TDY SINCE THR IS            
ACTVTY OFFSHR ATTM. WL GO WI 20 POPS FOR MJRITY OF AREA. THIS IS IN             
LINE WI WHAT MIDSHFT WAS THINKG ALSO.                                           
.MARINE...MSAS DEPICTS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH STRUGGLED STH'WD              
THRU AREA YESTERDAY PRESENTLY TAKING A BREATHER NEAR MYRTLE BEACH               
SC. FRONT TRANSFORMS ITSELF TO TITLE OF "WARM" LIFTING BACK N ONCE              
AGAIN THRU CWFA TODAY. IN THE INTERIM...OFFSHORE BUOYS ONCE AGAIN               
REGISTERING 3 FOOT SEA HEIGHT BEATS EVERY 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH                  
EASTERLY 5-11 KT FLOW. SURF CAMS/SPOTTERS VISUALLY/VERBALLY SPEAK OF            
LETHARGIC 1-2 FT WAVES LAPPING INTO THE SURF ZONES FROM DUCK FIELD              
RESEARCH FACILITY PIER ALONG THE NOBX...S THRU ATLANTIC BEACH AND               
DOWN TO SURF CITY PIER. NEED-LESS-TO-SAY...LOW RIPS FOR ALL BEACHES             
WITHIN CWFA RESPONSIBILITY TODAY. WINDS VEER SE THEN S REMAINING ON             
THE WEAKISH SIDE (AS DO SEAS/SOUND WATERS) AS AFORMENTIONED WARM                
FRONT LIFTS BACK N DURING THE COURSE OF DAY AND NIGHT. CHANGES TO               
THE PLACIDNESS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS S-SW P-GRAD BEGINS             
TO TIGHTEN TOWARD SCA STANDARDS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS/SOUND WATERS ALSO            
TO BUILD GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT COURSE OF DAY AS S-SW FLOW KICKS INTO             
20-25 KT RANGE BY NIGHTFALL. STILL STAYING THE 4-6 FT NORTHERN                  
LEG...5-7 FT SOUTHERN LEG SEA HEIGHT COURSE FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY                
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WORTH NOTING THAT LATEST 06Z NOAA              
WAVE WATCH III/OSBW04/09 DATA THROWS UP SOME 7 FT MAX HEIGHTS FOR               
NORTHERN LEG ENVIRONS...AND 8-9 FOOTERS CRUISING THROUGH 41013                  
WATERS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. REASON FOR NWW3 HIGHER SEA               
STATE NUMBERS COULD BE THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS GFS RUN SLOWS                  
ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT INTO REGION AND OFF COAST BY SOME 3-6 HRS            
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS DUE IN PART AS FRONT ORIENTS                
ITSELF  WITH PARALLEL SW FLOW ALOFT THUS SLOWING FRONT AS IT NEARS              
COAST. LATEST GFS ALSO DEPICTS SEVERAL WAVES FORMING ALONG FRONT TO             
THE S AS IT NEARS ATLANTIC WHICH AGAIN WOULD ADD A BIT OF DRAIN TO              
THE GAIN. HENCE...PROLONGED SW FLOW OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY                 
TUESDAY MORNING MOST LIKELY REASON FOR HIGHER SEA STATE NUMBERS                 
SHOWING UP IN MARINE LEG PICTURE. FRONT SHOULD SLIP OFF COAST                   
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z TUESDAY THERE-BY SHIFTING 15-25 KT SW              
FLOW TO NW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM TEXAS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI                
VALLEY REGION TOWARD CWFA/MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS               
BEGIN A BIT BRISK (15-20 KTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FALL OUT                  
QUICKLY LATER IN DAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE 1030MB HIGH SLIDES UP             
AND OVER REGION.                                                                
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CGG/GC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1010 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VARIOUS MSAS PARAMETERS AND SAT IMAGERY DEPICT SFC BNDRY ACROSS                 
PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST RUC HOLDS ENUF MOISTURE ACROSS THE              
AREA COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO MSTLY            
CLOUDY ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS...AND WORD IT BECOMING MSTLY                 
SUNNY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE OR IN TODAYS CASE...THE                 
RESULTANT WIND BOUNDARY...PUSHES INLAND. RESULTANT WIND BNDRY AND               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SURE TO INTERACT...AND WITH BORDERLINE                 
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS...WILL GO AHEAD AND STICK A 20 POP. MAY TWEAK             
MAXES A FEW DEGREES UPWARDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGES DOING THE BEST JOB OF DEPICTING THE WEAK FRONT                 
DRAPED ACROSS MY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING.  LIGHT ENE WINDS                 
PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OF CWF RESPONSIBILITY.                       
DO EXPECT THE FRONT TO LIFT OUT AS THE DAY GOES ON.  RUC STILL SEEMS            
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON INITIAL CONDITIONS AND I WILL FOLLOW ITS             
SLOWER VEERING TREND WITH THE WINDS.  WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE CHANGES             
TO THE GRIDS...BUT THE TEXT OF THE CURRENT CWF LOOKS TO BE IN DECENT            
SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS THERE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WILMINGTON     80  63  80  58 /  20  10  50  70                                 
FLORENCE       85  62  80  53 /  20  10  50  70                                 
LUMBERTON      81  61  80  53 /  20  10  50  70                                 
MYRTLE BEACH   77  63  77  59 /  20  10  50  70                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MARINE...RAS/ALEX                                                               
PUBLIC...RALF/JAN                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST HAND SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED NORTH OF THE AREA              
BUT EXACT POSITION HARD TO PIN DOWN. LLVL MOISTURE IS POOLING ALONG             
THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILL AREAS                
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. STRONG SOUTHERLY WAA FLOW HAS                 
DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVE STARTED TO THIN AS PREDICTED BY             
THE RUC/MESOETA/GFS. SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING IN                
MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...NOW INCLUDING THE NW PIEDMONT OF             
NC. WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SUN TO REALIZE LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE              
AREA...GIVEN THICKNESS SCHEME. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES                     
SEVERAL DEGREES IN NON-MOUNTAIN REGIONS...ESPECIALLY NC PIEDMONT TO             
ACCOUNT FOR EXTRA HEATING.                                                      
06Z MESOETA WAS INDICATING A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD                
FRONT INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD HAVE KEPT THICKER CLOUDS                   
CONFINED TO WESTERN MOUNTAIN REGIONS FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.                
HOWEVER...NEW 12Z RUN JUST IN...HAS A SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLUTION BUT              
STILL KEEPS THE FRONT HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR LONGER THAN THE              
GFS. HAVE CUT BACK ON SKY COVER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE             
MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLOW EASTWARD INCREASE IN MOCLOUDY SKIES. CURRENT            
POP AND WX GRIDS ARE WELL IN LINE WITH LATEST THINKING...WITH BEST              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                   
AS FAR AS CONVECTION FOR TODAY...APPEARS TO BE A BETTER CHANCE OF               
SEEING SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN              
YESTERDAY. FIRST CONVECTION WOULD MOST LIKELY INITIATE IN THE                   
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NC MTNS WHERE SOME OMEGA AND THETA-E                        
CONVERGENCE EXIST. HOWEVER...INDICES ARE MARGINAL. TOTAL TOTALS NEAR            
50 AND BEST CAPE OFF MODIFIED SOUNDING OF NEAR 1300. ONLY EXPECT                
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IF THAT. MEAN LAYER FLOW STRONGER TODAY SO               
ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING SHOULD HAVE SOME MOVEMENT TO AVOID FLOODING            
CONCERNS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
FRESHENED FIRST PERIOD PARAMETERS AND ADJUSTED MIXING HEIGHTS UP                
SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS            
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAMB                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
958 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT ENTERING W TN AND NW MS...WITH                
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS               
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.  RUC MODEL AND 06Z MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND               
SPREAD EAST INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF EAST TN.  MODIFIED BNA             
AND RNK 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY ABOUT 600 TO 800 J/KG WITH LIFTED               
INDICES AROUND -4 C.  THE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES APPEAR TO              
BE MARGINAL...AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SEEMS WEAKER THAN THOUGHT             
YESTERDAY...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS NOTED              
IN THE DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.  THUS...HIGH POPS SEEM IN ORDER              
WITH A DIMINISHED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.                                     
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LIKELY POPS                   
LIMITED TO WESTERN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL UPDATE AND                  
REMOVE ANY AFTERNOON WORDING...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY OTHER                   
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
Chattanooga, TN   80  61  69  47 /  50 100  70  10                              
Knoxville, TN     80  60  66  46 /  50 100  90  10                              
Bristol, TN       78  59  64  42 /  40 100  90  20                              
Oak Ridge, TN     79  58  67  45 /  50 100  70  10                              
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
815 AM CDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL ISSUE FLS AND CANCEL FLOOD WATCH. ALSO WILL MAKE SOME MINOR                
TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RUC RUN.                        
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOYD                                                                            
01                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
222 PM MDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
...BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WHEN WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW END...                      
UPPER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED YESTERDAY HAS OBVIOUSLY COME THROUGH A LOT            
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE TROUGH MUCH                
SHARPER THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY.  IN FACT...IT ALMOST CLOSES OFF               
THE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BRIEFLY.  IN RADAR IMAGERY...YOU             
CAN CLEARLY SEE A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST PUEBLO COUNTY AT            
THIS HOUR...WITH LOTS OF NICE PRECIPITATION ECHOES WRAPPING AROUND              
IT.  THE CLOSED-OFF NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM VS THE FASTER PROGRESSIVE             
OPEN WAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED...ACCOUNTS FOR THE GREATER INTENSITY                
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT THAN WAS THOUGHT.  IF ONLY WE'D KNOW THIS                   
YESTERDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WAS NO SLOUCH...BRINGING 3 TO 6 INCH                    
ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS           
MORNING...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES ON THE GRASS IN COLORADO SPRINGS.                
LEADVILLE REPORTED 4 INCHES IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA...AND AN ESTIMATED             
FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY. BELOW 6K...THE               
PRECIP HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  THE COS AIRPORT HAS RECORDED              
AT LEAST 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE             
PUB AIRPORT.  BASED ON PRECIP ESTIMATES FROM THE RADAR...THERE HAS              
BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN THIS IN A FEW AREAS...SUCH AS OVER                  
SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY...NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE UP             
TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN INDICATED IN ISOLATED AREAS. ALSO...A               
COUPLE ALERT SENSORS AROUND PUEBLO INDICATE .16 INCHES...WITH ONE               
OVER NORTHWEST PUEBLO COUNTY INDICATING .28 INCHES. ANYWAY...SYSTEM             
IS TRACKING EAST SLOWER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE EXTENDED SOME LOW GRADE           
POPS INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.              
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND STARTING TO LOSE SOME INTENSITY...SO LOW                
GRADE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE AS IT TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING.                       
OVERNIGHT...THINGS START TO DRY OUT.  MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY             
AND WARMER UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.  AS FOR TEMPS...ADJUSTED THEM              
DOWNWARD TONIGHT...DUE TO THE COLDER AIRMASS THAN EXPECTED.  FOR                
TOMORROW...MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON GUIDANCE...60S AND 70S               
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.             
THE SNOWPACK HAS RESPONDED WELL TO ALL THE MOISTURE. AS OF THIS                 
MORNING...THE AVERAGE FOR THE ARKANSAS WAS BACK UP TO 93% OF                    
AVERAGE...WITH THE RIO GRANDE BACK UP TO 96% OF AVERAGE.                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                   
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND WINDS INTO MID WEEK...WITH TIMING AND               
LOCATION OF PAC NW SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
MON NIGHT-TUE...A DRIER AND WARMER WX PATTERN ON TAP THROUGH MID                
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE TUE. H7                  
TEMPS WARM TO AROUND +4C TO +8C ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH MODELS               
INDICATING DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS TO NEAR H5...WILL SEE BREEZY WEST            
TO NORTHWEST WINDS TUE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S                
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER            
TERRAIN. GFS CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT SOME QPF ACROSS THE SW MTS TUE              
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST             
DRY FOR NOW WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS EXPECTED AND POSSIBLE VIRGA...AS              
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE LIMITED.                                         
TUE NIGHT-SUN...MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WED...WITH ETA MUCH MORE                 
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT PAC NW SYSTEM...DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT              
BASIN TUE NIGHT AND INTO EASTERN UTAH BY 00Z THU. 12Z GFS AND OTHER             
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM...           
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE NEVADA AT THE SAME TIME...KEEPING WARM AND               
DRIER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS DO AGREE ON INCREASING WEST           
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WED...WITH WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED           
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN WED. WITH MODELS DIVERGING...WILL KEEP               
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT...BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIP THU WITH A             
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH IF SLOWER SYSTEM                   
PREVAILS...MIGHT NOT SEE MUCH PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPSLOPE AND           
UPPER SUPPORT NOT JUXTAPOSED. AT ANY RATE...SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN              
RATHER WARM AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA           
THROUGH SAT...KEEPING A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE           
AREA...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING AROUND 9000 FEET.  ON SUNDAY...GFS            
IS INDICATING A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW                 
BEHIND PARTING PAC NW SYSTEM...BUT WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...            
WITH TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. -MW                                           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
530 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN PROBLEM IS TIMING OF THE RAIN. CURRENT HTX/BHM RADAR SHOWING A             
LOT OF RAIN OVER ALABAMA...MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY IT                
WILL GET INTO NORTHWEST GA. RUC MODEL WAY TOO FAST AND WILL GO WITH             
ETA TIMING WHICH PUTS IT INTO NORTHWEST GA BETWEEN 4 TO 6                       
PM...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRECIP            
WILL STAY OUT OF CENTRAL GA UNTIL MONDAY. THE PRECIP WILL END LATE              
MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE BEHIND              
THE COLD FRONT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE                   
SHOWING MINIMAL CHANCES WITH LIFTED INDICES RIGHT AROUND ZERO AND               
CAPES LESS THAN 800...HOWEVER K INDEX RUNNING AROUND 35 FOR TONIGHT             
ACROSS NORTH GA...AND WITH SEEING THE CURRENT REFLECTIVITY OVER                 
AL...WILL GO WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.                                          
WINDS WILL BECOMING GUSTY ON TUESDAY AS STRONG CAA MOVES INTO THE               
STATE ALONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPS COULD GET COLD                
ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FROST IN THE NORTH MOUNTAINS.                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MODELS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS                
RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKING LIKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UNTIL            
THEN TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER WEDNESDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE SE U.S. COAST                
FINALLY FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. SYSTEM SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY             
EXPECTED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TO DELAY PASSAGE             
OF MAIN TROUGH UNTIL LATE TUE. THIS WILL MEAN SHRA/TSRA AND                     
ACCOMPANYING LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVE LATER AND STAY LONGER. EXPECT                
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH                 
MID-DAY MON N HALF OF CWA...BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE MON AFTERNOON                
ACROSS S/SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.                                               
CEILINGS...PROBLEMATIC. INITIALLY...NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LOOK GOOD                
WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. DRY SFC AIR MASS SHOULD               
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BEFORE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...THUS NO              
SOONER THAN 06Z FOR ATL AND FTY...09Z FOR AHN AND CSG...AND AFT 12Z             
FOR MCN. FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED             
WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN IFR MID-LATE MORN MON. IFR-MVFR CONDITIONS                
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIFR                  
UNLIKELY.                                                                       
VISIBILITY...LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR DURING PERIOD OF                    
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. FOR ATL...THIS IS CENTERED AROUND 18Z MON.              
EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR VSBYS...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DURING                  
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MID TO LATE MORN MON FOR ATL...FTY...INTO               
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR AHN AND CSG...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MCN.            
GREATER CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ACTIVITY TOWARD AFTERNOON MEANS MORE               
ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CIGS...BUT POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LIFR IN HEAVIER            
TSRA ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY MCN AFT 18Z MON.                                     
WX...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PCPN FOR ANY TAF SITES UNTIL 06Z OR            
LATER. FOR ATL-AHN...ONLY ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH               
BULK OF PCPN AS SHRA. GREATER THREAT FOR TSRA S/SE PORTION OF                   
CWA...I.E...MCN FOR MON AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSRA NOT EXPECTED AT THIS             
TIME THROUGH 18Z...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE SE PORTION OF CWA              
AFT 18Z MON.                                                                    
WIND...WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA CURRENTLY AGAIN                   
PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.            
AGAIN TODAY...DIRECTION HOVERING CLOSE TO 180. EXPECT WINDS TO FAVOR            
WEST SIDE OF S WESTERN PORTION OF STATE...E SIDE OF S EASTERN                   
PORTIONS OF STATE. AS CURRENT SFC LOW MOVES NE OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER              
MOVES UP FROM S AL BY MON MORN CONTINUING CHAOTIC WIND PATTERN.                 
AGAIN...GRADIENT WEAK AND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.             
WINDS BECOME NW ACROSS N PORTION OF CWA BY MIDDAY MON...BUT S-SW                
WINDS CONTINUE S PORTIONS OF CWA UNTIL 00Z TUE OR LATER.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA     63 72 50 68 / 60 80 10 00                                           
ATHENS      62 73 49 71 / 60 80 10 00                                           
GAINESVILLE 61 71 48 69 / 80 80 10 00                                           
ROME        61 71 47 70 / 80 80 10 00                                           
COLUMBUS    64 76 52 73 / 40 70 40 00                                           
MACON       63 76 51 73 / 20 70 60 00                                           
&&                                                                              
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
140 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)...                                                      
AIRMASS OVER LMK FA CONTINUES TO RECOVER NICELY AFTER THIS MORNINGS             
BAND OF PCPN. AXIS OF 1000+ SBCAPES FROM KFTK TO KBWG AS OF 16Z, AND            
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY GIVEN NUMEROUS BREAKS IN CLOUDS AHEAD            
OF FRONTAL BDY NOW OVER SWRN IND AND WRN KY. LAPSE RATES BTWN 800               
AND 600MB NOT OPTIMALLY STEEP PER RUC SOUNDINGS, WHICH COULD BE A               
LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. HWVR WITH FRONT PUSHING                
THROUGH FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, CHCS CERTAINLY                
GOOD FOR SOME THUNDER. WIND FIELDS AND INCOMING POOL OF DRY AIR                 
ABOVE 800MB SUGGEST ANY STG/SVR STORMS COULD PRODUCE HIGH WINDS. SPC            
SLIGHT RISK CONTINUES MAINLY KLEX EASTWARD. BEST CHCS OF PCPN LOOK              
TO EXIT FA LATER THIS EVENING, WITH EXCEPTION OF AREAS S/E OF A                 
KBWG-KLEX LINE, WHERE JET STREAK RELATED ASCENT MAY KEEP SCT SHRA               
GOING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROF THEN DIGS                
INTO ERN CONUS MON, WITH A SMALLER SCALE WAVE DROPPING INTO OH VLY.             
CONSENSUS OF MODEL INDICATE SOME SPOTTY -SHRA POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON            
AND EARLY EVE, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAINLY IN             
KSDF/KLEX VICINITIES. 850MB THERMAL TROF REMAINS IN AREA TUE,                   
YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PATCHY FROST NOT OUT OF THE                 
QUESTION EARLY WED MORNING IN RURAL/VALLEY AREAS E OF I-65 SHOULD               
CURRENT FCST TRENDS VERIFY. XXV                                                 
.LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)...                                                       
GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE EXTENDED RUNS OF LATE...THREE DAYS OF VERY              
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. RIDGING WILL BE WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA               
WED NITE AS TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH ANOTHER TROUGH               
DEEPENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. SW                
FLOW KICKS IN EARLY THURS WITH WARMING H85 TEMPS...HIGHS SHOULD BE              
NEARLY 5-7 ABV NORMAL THURS AND FRI. TROUGH OVR PLAINS CONTINUES TO             
DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST FRI...A FEW MORE CLOUDS FRI BUT DRY. TROUGH                
ENTERS GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION SAT WITH SFC COLD FRONT MOVING              
INTO AREA AND STALLING OUT...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE            
POSSIBLE FOR SAT AND SUN WHEN THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OUT OF THE               
AREA WITH DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT MONDAY. SCHOTT                                  
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RUC MODEL RUN IN BRINGING                  
PRECIP CURRENTLY IN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHEAST INTO MID STATE                
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY BUMPED POPS UP A TAD EXCEPT FOR                 
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BNA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOYD                                                                            
01                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1217 PM CDT SUN APR 25 2004                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS BEGINNING TO QUICKLY BECOME MVFR IN THE LAST HOUR AS CLOUDS            
DECREASE FROM NW TO SE. PRECIP WORKING FURTHER SE AS WELL.                      
THUS...WILL GO WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS FOR AN HOUR FOR KDFW AND              
KFTW WITH NEW TAFS...HOLDING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLY AN EXTRA HOUR FOR               
KDAL. KACT SHOULD STAY MVFR A BIT LONGER...BUT DO EXPECT THEM TO GO             
VFR AS WELL. LIGHT FLOW...WET GROUND AND SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
SHOULD ALLOW SOME VERY LOW CLOUDS TO FROM TOWARD 11-12Z TOMORROW.               
CONFIDENCE NOT TERRIBLY HIGH...BUT WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH              
LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VISBY. 80                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MUCH MORE TO DISCUSS THIS MORNING THAN THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO...AS BAND             
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES STREAMING E/NEWD AROUND 30 MPH                 
BETWEEN I-20/30 AND A LAMPASAS...WACO...PALESTINE CORRIDOR AS OF                
08Z. FROM U/A ANALYSIS/PROFILER NETWORK...SEEMS A BOUNDARY AROUND               
850MB IS LOCATED IN THIS VCNTY AND WILL ONLY FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY SEWD            
BY THIS AFTN...AS PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK LLJ 20-30 KTS FEEDING                 
11-13 DEG C 850 MB DEW PTS INTO THIS FEATURE AND ENHANCING SOME                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER IT...ALONG WITH RRQ OF 70-90 UPPER JET ANCHORED            
FROM OK...NEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY WITH SOME PERTURBATIONS MOVING                
RAPIDLY ENE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF IT THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH                    
ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. DIFFICULT TEMP/POP FCST TO              
SAY THE LEAST THROUGH THIS EVE. LEANING STRONGLY TO THE                         
ETA/UKMET/RUC FCST HERE AS OTHER MODELS TOO BULLISH/FAR SOUTH WITH              
DRIER AIR...LOW LVL FOCUS/QPF. WILL GO HIGH POPS I-20 CORRIDOR TO               
KTPL-KPSN LINE AS DRIER AIR NOTED BETWEEN 850-700 MB CLOSER TO THE              
RED RIVER. WILL GO BELOW MOS IN BOUNDARY AREA...WITH HIGHS A CAT                
WARMER ON BOTH NW/SE FRINGES OF CWA. CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS                   
MORNING...BUT CAN/T IGNORE SATELLITE...U/A...AND RADAR TRENDS.                  
SHORTWAVE OVER SRN ROCKIES THEN SWEEPS THROUGH TNGT AND WILL                    
CONTINUE 20-30% POPS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHAOTIC SFC PATTERN WITH            
BOUNDARIES GALORE AND MSTR AVAILABILITY/DEPTH...BEFORE FINALLY                  
SEEING UPPER FLOW GO W/NWLY AND SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO N TX IN WAKE             
OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER GT LAKES ON MON WITH MILD DAYTIME                
TEMPS/COOL NIGHTTIME TEMPS. &&                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ONE MORE MILD SPRING DAY TUES...BEFORE SYSTEM BEGINS ORGANIZING OVER            
THE ROCKIES AND PRESSURE FALLS ALONG LEE OF ROCKIES RESULTS IN A                
RETURN TO BREEZY SLY WINDS AND WARMER/MUGGIER CONDITIONS THROUGH                
LATE WEEK. MANY DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN MODELS LATE WEEK ON ROCKIES            
SYSTEM AND SLOW APPROACH OF SFC FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH THE SRN                
PLAINS. VERY SUSPECT ON USUALLY TOO FAST/STRONG GFS SOLUTION AND                
WILL BUY OFF ON SLOWER/WARMER ECMWF SOLUTION. THUS...CONTINUED VERY             
LOW POPS BY WEEK/S END AND THE WEEKEND WITH TYPICAL LOW CONFIDENCE.             
&&                                                                              
05/                                                                             
.PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES...                                      
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   72  55  76  54 /  60  20  20   0                         
WACO, TX               70  56  77  53 /  90  30  30   0                         
PARIS, TX              74  52  74  50 /  40  20  20   0                         
DENTON, TX             75  54  75  52 /  30  20  20   0                         
MCKINNEY, TX           74  54  75  52 /  30  20  20   0                         
DALLAS, TX             72  55  76  54 /  60  20  20   0                         
TERRELL, TX            71  55  75  52 /  80  20  20   0                         
CORSICANA, TX          70  56  76  52 /  80  30  30   0                         
TEMPLE, TX             73  57  78  53 /  60  30  30   0                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx