WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
151 PM MDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
...FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE                
FORECAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                                    
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CWA WITH JET SPEED MAX                  
SLIDING NNE OVER WCNTRL UTAH. FAVORABLE JET QUAD FOR CONVECTION                 
REMAINS OVER XTRM SCNTRL AZ. MESOETA AND RUC SLIDE THIS AREA DUE                
EAST...BUT TSTMS CURRENTLY DVLPG BENEATH IT ARE EDGING NE...AS ARE              
TSTMS FORMING OVER ERN MOGOLLON RIM. DESCENT SHEAR PROFILE EXISTS               
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL. WITH CONVECTION SPROUTING IN THE CWA             
AND CLOSE BY AND MANY SENSITIVE AREAS RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT RAIN                
YESTERDAY...NOT MUCH RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD WILL BE ENOUGH FOR MORE             
MUD AND ROCK SLIDES AND FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT               
WERE BURNED OVER BY WILDFIRES EARLIER THIS SUMMER.                              
TROUGH OVER GREAT BASIN AND SWRN U.S. NOT YET SHOWING THE NE MOVEMENT           
PROGGED BY MODELS...THROUGH WV SATELLITE SHOWS KICKER APPROACHING               
FROM PACNW. BLV NRN HALF OF TROF WILL BEGIN SHEARING OUT...THOUGH BLV           
LIFT MUCH MORE TO THE NORTH...NOT SLIDING EAST AS QUICKLY AS ETA AND            
AVN SHOW. WILL MAKE XTRM NW PORTION PCLDY MON...BUT THEN MOISTURE AND           
CLDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN MON NGT AS MORE LOW AND MID LVL MOISTURE             
IS INJECTED INTO THE MIX FROM NW MEXICO AND BAJA. REMNANTS OF FAY               
PROGGED TO GET INFUSED INTO THIS FLOW TUE AND WED. SO AFTER A BRIEF             
PARTLY CLOUDY PERIOD FOR THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY...WILL THEN            
BRING IT BACK TO THE PERSISTENT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MOIST CONDITIONS              
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED. BOTH ETA AND            
AVN GUIDANCE TEMPS WERE IN THE BALL PARK TODAY. CJC                             
EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE LAST WAVE            
OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AS WE SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.                
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR DAILY CONVECTION THROUGH                    
SATURDAY. WILL SLOW THE DRYING TREND KEEP SOME WEATHER IN FRIDAY AND            
SATURDAY.  DC                                                                   
.GJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1000 PM MDT TODAY FOR SOUTHEAST                
       UTAH AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO.                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
504 PM MDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
ADDED STORMS TO WESTERN ZONES TONIGHT AS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM             
MESO-LOW ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON COLORADO NORTHEAST AND A             
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM IT.  RUC HAS PATTERN              
OF STORMS OKAY BUT IS ABOUT 60 MILES TOO FAR EAST.  HAVE ADJUSTED               
ZONES TO RUN A 40 POP IN YUMA COUNTY WITH 10 POPS IN KIT CARSON AND             
CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND IN DUNDY COUNTY IN NEBRASKA.                  
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
ENTWISTLE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
830 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN THIS MORNING AS MIXING DEVELOPS WITH SUNRISE.            
WITH SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WINDS             
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE WINDY CATEGORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST                
CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE PROXIMITY TO TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THEM LOWER.             
ALSO UPDATED SKY COVER GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE PICS AND MODEL                   
TENDENCY TO BE OVERDOING CLOUD COVER GRIDS OF LATE.                             
MAY UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS            
OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL BE CHANNELED INTO THAT                
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. RUC/ETA SUGGEST SOME MEAGER CAPE               
BUT LITTLE CIN. NSSL MM5/ETA KAIN-FRITSCH ALSO INDICATE A FEW STORMS            
DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. GIVEN WARM 500 TEMPS OF                 
AROUND -5/-6 LOCAL RESEARCH SAYS CHANCES OF BEING SEVERE VERY LOW.              
WILL AWAIT NEW MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                             
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW HI AMPLITUDE AND VERY WARM/DRY              
UPR RDG DOMINATING THE GRT LKS DOWNWND OF UPR TROF OVR THE W. SWLY              
FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BROUGHT ANOTHER                
ROUND OF RECORD WARMTH TO THE CWA TDAY UNDER CLR SKIES...AND SKIES              
REMAIN CLR THIS EVNG WITH FNTL BNDRY ON RIM OF HI PRES STILL OUT IN             
THE NRN PLAINS AND ACRS ONTARIO. 00Z GRB/APX SDNGS DEPICT RELATIVELY            
DRY AND STABLE PROFILE OVR THE NW GRT LKS. 01Z TEMPS RANGE FM 72                
DOWNWND OF  LK MI TO 82 OVR THE NW ZNS THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH SSW                  
FLOW.  ALTHOUGH ACYC SWLY FLOW PRESENT AGAIN THIS EVNG...PRES                   
GRADIENT WEAKER THAN LAST EVNG. DWPTS LWR AS WELL...MAINLY 60 TO 65.            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE MIN TEMPS/POTENTIAL FOR FOG.                        
LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA/AVN SHOW UPR RDG/DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE              
OVR THE NW GRT LKS TNGT...BUT RUC IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT MOVG COLD               
FNT IN NRN PLAINS E TNGT INTO FAR WRN LK SUP BY SUNRISE WITH                    
RESULT INCRSG PRES GRADIENT/SW FLOW OVR ESPECIALLY THE WRN ZNS LATE.            
THINK RUC TOO QUICK PUSHING FNT E INTO DOMINATING RDG GIVEN UPR FLOW            
PARALLEL TO THIS BNDRY WITH CLOSEST SHRTWV OVR SRN SASKATCHEWAN                 
TENDING TO LIFT NE. BUT EVEN 18Z ETA SHOWS SHARPER PRES GRADIENT OVR            
THE WRN ZNS OVRNGT. WITH STRGR SWLY FLOW THESE AREAS...HIEST MINS WL            
OCCUR ACRS DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM IWD-P59-DOWNTOWN MQT. SINCE GRADIENT              
IS WEAKER AND SFC DWPTS SVRL DEGREES LWR THAN LAST NGT...AREAS ACRS             
THE SCNTRL AND E SHUD DECOUPLE WITH WEAKER GRADIENT PROGGED TO                  
PERSIST ALL NGT. THINK TEMPS WL FALL THRU DWPT THESE AREAS WITH MINS            
BOTTOMING OUT SVRL DEGREES LWR THAN CURRENT DWPTS...PROBABLY AS LO              
AS 60. SETUP ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DVLPMNT THESE PLACES. BUT STRGR             
SWLY GRADIENT FLOW ACRS THE NW WL PREVENT FOG FORMATION.                        
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS:                                               
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...12Z ETA COMING MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY'S              
RUN OF AVN...PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER EVEN...WHILE NEW AVN AND NGM                  
QUICKER THAN ETA. GIVEN STRENGTH OF RDG AND LTL TO NO MVMT OF CDFNT             
THUS FAR...HAVE OPTED WITH SLOWER SOLN. MODEL QPF STILL SUGGESTS                
POST FRONTAL PCPN WITH CAP REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS HAVE             
BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF SCT SHRA/TSRA EVEN MORE. WL ONLY MENTION                
OF SHRA/TSRA 4 WRN COUNTIES LATE AFT MON...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA                   
SPREADING TO CNTRL AND ERN ZONES LATER IN EVNG. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL             
OF CDFNT...LOOK FOR HIGHS MON TO REACH CLOSE TO SUNDAY READINGS (MID            
80-S TO LOW 90S) OVR CNTRL AND ERN ZONES WITH 850 MB THERMAL RDG OF             
20-21C OVRHD PER ETA. MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING RIGHT              
ENTRANCE FORCING/UPR DIV LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS 140+ KT             
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 3H JET MAX STREAKS ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO                
QUEBEC. THIS FORCING ALG WITH HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND               
SLOW MVMT OF CDFNT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POST FRONTAL HEAVY                
RAINFALL LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH TSRA. RDGG THEN BUILDS            
IN OVR AREA MON AFT WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALF PER ETA FCST                 
SNDGS...LOOK FOR END TO PCPN BY THEN.                                           
.EXTENDED...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COOL CANADIAN SFC               
HIGH  HOLDING FIRM OVR AREA FOR WED. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THU INTO SUN. MODELS STILL HINT AND GLANCING                
BLOW FM WKR SHRTWV/CDFNT LATE THU INTO FRI BUT GIVEN THAN AVN AND               
ETA EXT SHOW CDFNT WASHING OUT NORTH OF GREAT LAKES AND MSTR LACKING            
...DECIDED TO PULL SHRA MENTION FOR ERY FRI. ALSO PLENTY OF MODEL               
UNCERTAINTY WITH ARRIVAL AND STRENGTH OF STGR SYSTEM FOR WEEKEND.               
HWVR...MOST OF MODELS (UKMET/MRF/ECMWF) HINT AS MORE AMPLIFIED TROF             
DIGGING INTO SRN CANADA AND NRN PLAINS BY WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER              
AIR (ANYWHERE FM 0-4C AT 850 MB TEMPS) TO MOVE IN BEHIND SFC CDFNT              
ESPECIALLY FOR SUN INTO MON. MRF MOST AMPLIFIED WITH WHILE ECMWF                
LEAST AMPLIFIED...QUICKER AND NOT AS COLD WITH SYSTEM MOVG THRU.                
WITH LACK OF CLR PICTURE ON TIMING WL INCLUDE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR              
BOTH SAT AND SUN...AND TREND WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL BE CONTINUED RECORD WARMTH INTO MONDAY                  
...THEN FROPA/PRECIP TIMING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH BROAD            
WARM RDG OVR OH VALLEY AND GRT LAKES. AT THE SFC...LO PRES REMAINS              
OVR SD WITH AN INVERTED TROF/FRONT EXTENDING INTO NW MN AND WRN                 
ONTARIO. STRENGTH OF RDG AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING...PER KINL/KMPX                 
SNDGS CONTINUES TO KEEP SHRA/TSRA BEHIND CDFNT OVER SRN MANITOBA                
INTO WRN ONTARIO...IN PROXIMITY TO 850 MB FRONT.                                
TONIGHT...SSW WINDS (5 TO 15 KT) TONIGHT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH              
TO KEEP BNDRY LYR MIXED AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE            
LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 F IN DWNSLP LOCATIONS NR LAKE                
SUPEPIOR. WITH WARM MOIST FLOW OVR LAKE MI...HAVE INCLUDED SOME                 
PATCHY FOG LATE OVR 4 ERN COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED PATCHY FOG               
OVR MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF SCNTRL UPR MI AS KIMT RADIATED TO               
DWPNT AND REPORTED FOG LATE LAST NIGHT. SUSPECT COULD BE SAME                   
SITUATION LATE TONIGHT.                                                         
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...12Z ETA COMING MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY'S              
RUN OF AVN...PERHAPS A BIT SLOWER EVEN...WHILE NEW AVN AND NGM                  
QUICKER THAN ETA. GIVEN STRENGTH OF RDG AND LTL TO NO MVMT OF CDFNT             
THUS FAR...HAVE OPTED WITH SLOWER SOLN. MODEL QPF STILL SUGGESTS                
POST FRONTAL PCPN WITH CAP REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS HAVE             
BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF SCT SHRA/TSRA EVEN MORE. WL ONLY MENTION                
OF SHRA/TSRA 4 WRN COUNTIES LATE AFT MON...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA                   
SPREADING TO CNTRL AND ERN ZONES LATER IN EVNG. WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL             
OF CDFNT...LOOK FOR HIGHS MON TO REACH CLOSE TO SUNDAY READINGS (MID            
80-S TO LOW 90S) OVR CNTRL AND ERN ZONES WITH 850 MB THERMAL RDG OF             
20-21C OVRHD PER ETA. MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING RIGHT              
ENTRANCE FORCING/UPR DIV LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS 140+ KT             
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED 3H JET MAX STREAKS ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO                
QUEBEC. THIS FORCING ALG WITH HIGH PWATS OF AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND               
SLOW MVMT OF CDFNT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR POST FRONTAL HEAVY                
RAINFALL LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH TSRA. RDGG THEN BUILDS            
IN OVR AREA MON AFT WITH DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ALF PER ETA FCST                 
SNDGS...LOOK FOR END TO PCPN BY THEN.                                           
.EXTENDED...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COOL CANADIAN SFC               
HIGH  HOLDING FIRM OVR AREA FOR WED. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THU INTO SUN. MODELS STILL HINT AND GLANCING                
BLOW FM WKR SHRTWV/CDFNT LATE THU INTO FRI BUT GIVEN THAN AVN AND               
ETA EXT SHOW CDFNT WASHING OUT NORTH OF GREAT LAKES AND MSTR LACKING            
...DECIDED TO PULL SHRA MENTION FOR ERY FRI. ALSO PLENTY OF MODEL               
UNCERTAINTY WITH ARRIVAL AND STRENGTH OF STGR SYSTEM FOR WEEKEND.               
HWVR...MOST OF MODELS (UKMET/MRF/ECMWF) HINT AS MORE AMPLIFIED TROF             
DIGGING INTO SRN CANADA AND NRN PLAINS BY WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER              
AIR (ANYWHERE FM 0-4C AT 850 MB TEMPS) TO MOVE IN BEHIND SFC CDFNT              
ESPECIALLY FOR SUN INTO MON. MRF MOST AMPLIFIED WITH WHILE ECMWF                
LEAST AMPLIFIED...QUICKER AND NOT AS COLD WITH SYSTEM MOVG THRU.                
WITH LACK OF CLR PICTURE ON TIMING WL INCLUDE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR              
BOTH SAT AND SUN...AND TREND WITH GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO                    
WEEKEND.                                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
330 PM MDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE              
NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE SRN PORTION                 
WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH THE SRN ZONES UNTIL MON. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM               
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO PAC NW MON THEN FURTHER BUILD AS IT                 
MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT MON NIGHT. WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BE                
OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MAIN POTENTIAL                   
FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE IN THE FAR SRN ZONES TONIGHT THEN AGAIN                   
THERE TUE INTO WED. FOR TONIGHT IN THAT AREA...EARLIER THINKING WAS             
THAT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC           
INDICATES A STABLE AIRMASS IN THE AREA AND NO LONGER HAS ANY QPF                
THERE. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A STABLE AIRMASS              
SO HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF CONVECTION. FOR TUE THROUGH WED AVN              
HAS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE FAR SRN ZONES. BUT CHECK OF TIME/HEIGHT                
CROSS SECTIONS SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS EVEN THOUGH LIFTED                
INDICES MAY APPROACH ZERO. WILL GO DRY FOR NOW. BLANK                           
.EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WILL GO WITH A             
GENERALLY DRY FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA DAY 4. RIDGE AXIS             
SHIFTS EAST DAY 5 AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.                
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PROVIDES GOOD DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT. NORTHWEST              
FLOW ALOFT DAY 6 WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING ACROSS THE                  
AREA. THOUGH SURFACE GRADIENT IS UPSLOPE...LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD              
KEEP IT DRY. DAY 7 REMAINS DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                       
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD                 
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.                        
.CCF NUMBERS                                                                    
GTF BU 040/072 044/081 048 04000                                                
    UBBBB 080/045 078/045 076/050 053/044 061 00000000111                       
CTB BU 039/069 040/078 044 04000                                                
    UBBBB 077/042 074/040 072/043 049/043 059 00000000111                       
HLN BU 041/073 042/082 045 04000                                                
    UBBBB 081/046 080/046 073/047 056/043 061 00000000111                       
BZN BU 036/070 036/080 039 04110                                                
    UBBBB 080/040 079/040 074/049 059/045 062 00000000111                       
WEY BU 030/064 030/074 033 04110                                                
    BBBBB 074/031 066/032 066/048 059/043 056 11100000111                       
DLN BU 036/071 036/078 040 04000                                                
    UBBBB 078/038 074/039 073/049 064/046 063 ---00000111                       
HVR BU 040/076 044/085 047 04000                                                
    UBBBB 084/045 080/044 077/049 051/045 060 00000000111                       
LWT BU 039/070 041/078 045 04000                                                
    UBBBB 077/043 079/042 074/050 050/042 058 00000000111                       
.TFX...NONE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
930 AM MDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                       
UPDATES FOR ZONES AND STATE                                                     
.SHORT TERM...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM NRN ID TO SE                  
OREGON WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS ZONES TODAY AND SW MT THIS             
EVENING. BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET              
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR ERN ZONES AT MID-MORNING. AIRMASS HAS                
DRIED QUITE A BIT TO ITS WEST AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MAIN               
FOCUS TODAY WAS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION IN THE SW. LATEST              
MESO KEEPS QPF E OF THE AREA AS AIRMASS OVER SW MT IS FORECAST TO BE            
STABLE. RUC ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SOME QPF OVER SW MT AS THEY HAVE              
AIRMASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. CHECK OF SOUNDINGS SHOWS MESOETA MAY HAVE              
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TOO LOW AND HENCE AIRMASS TOO STABLE. BOTH                  
MODELS HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER FAR SW MT AND UPPER                 
TROUGH WILL STILL HAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IN THE              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONFOR THIS EVENING BUT ALSO INCLUDE                 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER UPDATED TO MENTION SOME PATCHY VALLEY             
FOG IN THE SW AND ALSO TO DO SOME ADJUSTING OF CLOUDS AND                       
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH. MAY MAKE A FURTHUR TWEAK HERE AND THERE.            
BLANK                                                                           
.EXTENDED...A FLAT UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE             
ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE                   
CONTINUES TO BUILD ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU THE AREA           
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME             
GENERATING ANY PRECIP. THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP                
DEVELOP BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL           
ALSO COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE ON SATURDAY. ZELZER                    
.CCF NUMBERS                                                                    
GTF BB 068/040 072/044 077 13100                                                
    BBBBB 045/073 045/072 045/070 048/070     0000022111                        
CTB BB 065/039 069/040 074 13100                                                
    BBBBB 040/069 042/068 040/066 044/066     0000011111                        
HLN BB 069/041 074/043 079 131-0                                                
    BBBBB 044/075 046/073 046/071 049/072     0000022111                        
BZN BB 068/036 074/038 076 13110                                                
    BBBBB 040/072 040/070 040/069 051/070     0000022111                        
WEY BB 060/028 065/030 067 13110                                                
    BBBBB 031/068 031/067 032/066 050/066     0000022111                        
DLN BB 067/035 073/039 077 13110                                                
    BBBBB 040/070 038/070 040/069 054/070     0000022111                        
HVR BB 070/040 075/044 080 13100                                                
    BBBBB 042/074 045/073 044/070 047/072     0000022111                        
LWT BB 066/040 070/042 073 13110                                                
    BBBBB 040/071 043/070 042/068 045/070     0000022111                        
.TFX...NONE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1019 AM EDT SUN SEP 8 2002                                                      
NATL HRCN CNTR WILL BE INITIATING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL                     
DEPRESSION EIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE            
SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALMOST ENCIRCLING THE CENTER WITH A BROAD               
CIRCULATION EMCOMPASSING MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLC. SEE FORTHCOMING              
NHC PRODUCTS FOR A FULLER DISCUSSION OF THIS FEATURE.                           
STRENGTHENING NE WINDS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION ARE               
AFFECTING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF SHALLOW                
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/SHRAS MOVING OFF THE WATER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE             
COASTAL COUNTIES. PTCLDY SHOULD BE FINE FOR SKY COVER...WILL UPDATE             
INLAND SXNS SINCE THEY APPEAR TO BE CLOUDING UP AS WELL. AFTN MAXES             
WILL BE COOLEST ALONG THE COAST WITH THE NE FLOW... CURRENT LOW 80S             
COAST LOOK FINE...WILL KNOCK INLAND DOWN TO 80-85.                              
MARINE: APPEARS THE ADJACENT MARITIME AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE             
INTENSIFYING LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND TO WHAT DEGREE IS UNKNOWN AT             
THIS TIME. MORE DETAILS WILL COME IN THIS AFTERNOON/S DISC. IN THE              
MEANTIME...SEEING SOLID NE 20 KTS SINCE 06Z WHILE SEAS ARE RECENTLY             
RUNNING AROUND 5 FT. EXPECT THE PRES GRAD TO SLOWLY PINCH BETWEEN               
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLC AND SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE                      
INTENSIFYING LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT I WILL BUMP SPEEDS              
UPWARD IN LINE W/ THE RUC FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO THE                 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. ALSO W/ A NE WIND DIR...SEAS WILL BE LOWER                
NEAR SHORE FROM CAPE                                                            
FCSTID = 9                                                                      
ILM   81  69  80  71 /   20  20  30  30                                         
LBT   83  64  85  67 /   0   0   20  20                                         
FLO   84  65  85  68 /   0   0   20  20                                         
MYR   83  68  81  71 /   20  20  30  30                                         
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...SCA SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET                                        
SC...SCA LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER                                   
TRA/SRP                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
225 AM MDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS SHEARING APART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH            
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. WATER               
VAPOR CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH.                   
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR              
THE BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN PORTION FORECAST AREA. THE RUC LIFTS THIS WAVE INTO                
WESTERN WYOMING BY 12Z WITH THE ASSOCIATED QPF MOVING OUT OF THE                
AREA. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.                
ANOTHER WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL           
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY.                                          
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHEAR...THE UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS FURTHER            
EAST TODAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO                   
NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. HOW MUCH DRYING WILL             
ACTUALLY OCCUR IS IN QUESTION BUT THIS IDEA LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL           
FOLLOW GUIDANCE. MODELS FORECAST THE WAVE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO               
RIVER TO REACH THE FOUR CORNERS BY 00Z. THIS IN ADDITION TO THE JET             
OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL TAPER POPS               
TODAY FROM HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE DIVIDE TO SOUTHEAST UTAH...TO SLIGHT           
CHANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. LITTLE             
CAPE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST                      
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SAN JUANS. THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY           
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HIGHEST IN THIS AREA.                          
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS           
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER              
JET REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH SOME HANG BACK ENERGY FROM THE BASE OF           
OLD LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE DRYING             
OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY           
FLOW PUSHES MOISTURE BACK INTO THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES TRENDS WILL BE           
TRICKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL FAVOR THE ETA TEMPS FOR THIS PACKAGE.            
LINDQUIST                                                                       
EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE LAST WAVE            
OF ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY AS WE SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW.                
STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR DAILY CONVECTION THROUGH                    
SATURDAY. WILL SLOW THE DRYING TREND KEEP SOME WEATHER IN FRIDAY AND            
SATURDAY.  DC                                                                   
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
224 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
UPDATE...                                                                       
88D AND IR IMAGERY PICKING UP BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING            
FROM NEAR KFSD NE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.  THIS IS WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND            
ON THE REAR SIDE OF 850 THETA-E ADVECTION.  LAST 30 MINUTES OF IR               
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING ISOLD AC CU/AC DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN MCW AND                 
ALO.  LATEST RUC ACTUALLY HINTS UPON THIS VERY AREA FOR CONVECTION              
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO MY SURPRISE.  THIS AREA AGAIN IS ON S                     
PERIPHERY SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION, LIKELY DUE TO THE LLJ                    
NOCTURNAL MAX.  WILL CLOSELY MONITOR.                                           
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS TEMPERATURES, WITH A SECONDARY                 
CONCERN OF EARLY MORNING FOG.  WIDESPREAD MVFR VISIBILITY NOW OVER              
LARGE PORTION OF IL AND WI, BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN IA.                
SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ARE FROM MO INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DEW               
POINTS ARE A FEW DEGREES LOWER.  TEMPS HAVE EXCEEDED MY EXPECTATIONS            
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO AM INCLINED TO STAY WITH THE WARMER ETA MOS             
AGAIN FOR TODAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 MOST AREAS.  NOT SURE WHY MCW             
AND ALO REACHED 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN THE REST OF THE               
FORECAST AREA.  ONLY EVIDENCE I SEE IS THE META INITIALIZED A BIT               
WARMER AT 850 MB IN NC/NE IA.  MORE CU AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY                  
EASTERN IA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.  HAD 2 OR 3 SMALL SHRA/TSRA               
SUNDAY EVENING, AND AGAIN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TODAY.  STILL                 
LACKING A TRIGGER MECHANISM TO LATCH ONTO BESIDES WEAKENING VORT IN             
EASTERN IA.                                                                     
LONGER TERM...                                                                  
FRONTOGENETIC ZONE ACROSS WY/SD/NW MN IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE                
FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS WITHIN MOIST PLUME              
WHICH STILL YIELDS PWATS 180-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT 00Z.  WILL                
MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT FORECAST AS MODELS ARE IN CONTINUED AGREEMENT             
OF WEAKENING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AS ASSOCIATED JET DEPARTS                  
QUICKLY.  STILL SHOULD BE SOME CONVERGENCE AND DPVA TO HELP MAINTAIN            
SHRA/TSRA BAND INTO NORTHERN IA LATE TONIGHT.  HAVE TRIMMED POPS                
FURTHER N HOWEVER GIVEN SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING.  MID LEVEL                       
INSTABILITY STILL LACKING (SHOWALTERS ONLY 0 TO -1), BUT ENOUGH TO              
KEEP THUNDER MENTION GOING.  WIDE DISPARITY ON TEMP GUIDANCE, BUT               
SINCE I'M FAVORING LESS PRECIP AND CLOUDS WITH TIME ON TUESDAY, MAV             
LOOKS TOO COOL, BUT ETA TOO WARM.  THEREFORE A COMPROMISE NEAR FWC              
IS BEING USED.  ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD FOR            
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS AS COLD ADVECTION CEASES.  LATE WEEK CHANCES STILL            
LOOK GOOD.                                                                      
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
140 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
...HEAT WAVE MHT-ASH-LWM-BVY-FIT THRU TUE WITH RER 95F HEAT TDY AND             
LIKELY AGAIN TUE AT MOST SNE SITES...                                           
RERS FOLLOW                                                                     
       BOS     BDL      PVD     ORH      MQE                                    
9/9    91-1971 91-1971* 91-1971 90-1915  88-1959                                
9/10   95-1931 95-1931  94-1983 91-1931  90-1930 AND 1989                       
CEF SHORTER TERM PERIOD OF RECORD RERS BLO.                                     
9/9 88-1959  9/10 93-189                                                        
TDYS 91 RER AT BDL WAS SET IN YRS PRIOR TO 1971 AS WELL.                        
MOS: MAX TEMPS WILL B RAISED ABV THE AVBL NCEP MOS GUIDANCE                     
     TDY AND TUE BY 2 TO 5F BOTH DAYS ALL OF SNE!                               
MARINE: THINKING POTENTIAL GALE GUSTS WEDNESDAY IN STG CAA.                     
        LAG IN SUBISIDENCE OF SEAS BLO 5FT FOR OUTER WATERS                     
        TIL THU AFTN?                                                           
GUSTAV: ITS IN TPC/MPC HANDS.                                                   
SPSBOX: WB REISSUED FOR RER HEAT AND BRIEF COMMENT ON GUSTAV.                   
TDY: FOR THE SEASON SEARING (LIGHT WIND) HEAT. BRILLIANT SS.                    
     ONLY ORH IS UP FOR GRABS ON RER TIEING EVENT OTRW MAX TEMPS                
     PER STUNNINGLY ACCURATE 15-21Z ETA 2M TEMP FCST YDY WILL                   
     BE APPLIED AGAIN TDY. ONE SOURCE TO SEE THIS NCEP MODEL                    
     HRLY ETA DATA IS VIA A COOP PROJECT BTWN NWS AND PSU                       
     WWW.EMS.PSU.EDU/WX/ETATS.HTML.                                             
     THIS DAYTIME DATA HAS TROUBLE VERIFYING IN SEA BRZ OR NON-                 
     IDEAL DOWNSLOPE WIND (FOR INSTANCE BDL MAXES ON W OR WNW                   
     SFC WIND) WHEREAS DOWNSLOPE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS CAN BE AN E                
     WIND OR OTHERWISE.                                                         
     THIS DATA HRLY AT NIGHT HAS TROUBLE VERIFYING WHERE MIXING                 
     OCCURS.                                                                    
     IN ANY CASE: FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE ALMOST VERBATIM IN                    
     GRIDS AND FCST THRU TUESDAY WITH COASTAL PLAIN AND VLY                     
     NON-MARINE INFLUENCED MAX TEMPS 93-96F.                                    
     FOR WHAT ITS WORTH TAQ EXP HAS 90 AT 15Z NR NZW AND FM BOS-PSM!            
     THESE HEAT EVENTS SOMETIMES ARE FAVORED IN THE SURROUNDING                 
     SUBSIDENCE DERIVED FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  OTHER FACTORS                   
     MAY BE INVOLVED.                                                           
     FEEBLE TOO LATE C BREEZES E MA COAST DVLPG 18-21Z PER WKNG                 
     WLY GRAD AND TAQ EXP RUC HAS IT. WE'LL SEE IF IT MATERIALIZES.             
     HINTS OF SAME IN NGM MRPCWN GUIDANCE FOR 013 AND IOS.                      
     UPPER CAPE COD GETS HOT TOO.                                               
TNGT: WHERE WIND BLOWS W ALL NITE IN THE URBAN CTRS LOW TEMP                    
      MAY GO NO LWR THAN 75.  BLV ODDS FAVOR BOS CLOSE TO THAT                  
      VALUE PER ADDITIONAL BL SUPPORT...BUT WIND MUST BLOW >8                   
      KTS ALL NIGHT AND NOT GO SSW (BLOW FROM THE SUBURBS).                     
TUE: SEARING START THEN HI CLOUDS POSSIBLE TO CAP BUT FCSTG CLOSE               
     TO 95F AGAIN WITH MAYBE LESS CHC OF ANY FEEBLE NARR BAY                    
     E MA COAST C BREEZES.  A MORE WDSPRD HEAT EVENT FOR CAPE COD.              
TUE NITE: DEBATING QPF AREAS AND CLOSER TO MOS FOR LOWS.  UKMET                 
          IS A REALLY NICE PREDICTOR OF QPF ARD HERE IN ITS AREAL               
          INCLUSION AND AWAITING THIS 00Z RUN FOR ITS ASSISTANCE.               
          NNE WIND G TO 29 KTS MAY START ARD 10Z AT BOS-BVY.                    
WED: STG CFP AND BURST OF 30-38 KT WINDS LIKELY WITH MDT-STG NLY CAA            
     SCT OR BKN CVRG SHWRS ASSTD WITH VERY STG SW PASSAGE. PROB                 
     FCST 50 PCT SW OF AFN-ORH-WLY AND 60-70 PCT E OF THAT LINE.                
     AMTS LIGHT. 00Z UKMET AGAIN TO BE APPLIED FOR POP                          
     ADJUSTMENTS OF THE NCEP ETA/GFS.                                           
THU AM: CUD B A LIGHT TOUCH OF FROST IN SW NH AND NW MA PROTECTED               
        VALLEYS WITH SFC TDS FCST NR 32F AND WIND BCMG LIGHT.                   
        RAD MAY NOT START SOON ENOUGH                                           
        9/6 (FRI AM) BARRE FALLS DAM MA HAD 33 AND MARLOW NH 35F                
FRI-SUN: WARMING BACK UP AS 12Z/8 EC AND 00Z/9 GFS PUMP THE RDG BACK            
         UP ALONG THE E COAST. 567+ K DVLPS AND RIGHT NOW GFS MAKES             
         IT RAIN HERE NEXT SUNDAY... IF IT DOESNT...WE MAY B SEEING             
         TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S CT RVR VLY THIS WKND.                      
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
DRAG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TIMING/COVERAGE OF PCPN THIS            
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE MORNING.                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL RDG DOMINATING              
THE ERN CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE INTERMTN WEST. PERSISTENT                     
PATTERN WAS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEAMPLIFICATION AS JET MOVES INTO WRN              
CANADA AND PIECES OF THE WRN TROF LIFT OVER AND FLATTEN THE RDG. ONE            
SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER MANITOBA WHILE ANOTHER WAS                  
LIFTING NE OUT OF UT/WY. AT THE SFC...FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR            
KINL INTO ERN SD CONTINUED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE WITH                 
MODEST 1-2 MB 3 HR PRES RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN              
MN WERE SUPPORTED BY UPR LVL DIV WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPR LVL JET.            
WHILE MOST OF THE PCPN WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT STRONG LOW LVL              
THETA-E INFLOW (40 KT AT 925 MB...PER PROFILER) SUPPORTED SOME                  
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SW MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER UPR                     
MI...WARM SRLY FLOW PREVAILED. HOWEVER...WHERE WINDS HAVE                       
DECOUPLED...SHALLOW FG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KIMT AND KESC.                        
MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OVER UPR MI              
AND WITH MASS FIELDS. ETA/AVN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER AND                  
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND WRN LAKES              
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.                                                      
TODAY...WITH FRONT MOVING INTO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO                 
CNTRL UPR MI...MAINLY AFTER 21Z...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS             
AGAIN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S F...SUPPORTED BY H8 TEMPS TO AROUND            
19C. DESPITE CAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG...CAPPING REMAINS STRONG                  
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION IN ABSENCE OF FORCING MECHANISM AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION.                                        
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...MDLS SUGGEST CONVECTION             
WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING              
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SHRTWV AND MODEST 900-700             
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO               
EARLY TUESDAY AS MAIN SHRTWV APPROACHES. MDLS SUGGEST PCPN WILL                 
EXPAND AS MOISTURE AVBL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY (PWAT NEAR 1.6             
INCHES) COMBINE WITH SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION FROM DPVA/DEEP LYR               
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT FROM UPR LVL DIV WITH JET RIGHT                 
ENTRANCE. WHILE MUCH OF THE PCPN MAY BE NON-CONVECTIVE...PROXIMITY              
OF NEG SHOWALTER INDICES OVER NRN WI MAY BRING SOME EMBEDDED                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACRS UPR MI. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN QPF DEPICTION             
AS 00Z ETA/AVN SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN AXIS OVER NRN WI INTO SRN UPR MI              
WHILE CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW BAND FARTHER NW OVER WRN UPR MI AND LK                
SUPERIOR (06Z ETA HAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION). SO...HAVE KEPT                
NMRS/LIKELY POPS INTO WEST HLF OF UPR MI OVERNIGHT AND ACRS AREA                
EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH ETA SCENARIO IN ENDING PCPN WEST             
AROUND 12Z AND ALL BUT THE FAR SE BY 15Z.                                       
REST OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DNVA...QVECTOR DIV AND DRY                     
ADVECTION WITH ACYC NWRLY FLOW SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND                  
COOLER AIR INTO UPR MI. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS                
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 40S WED MORNING.                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES...TIMING OF CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED CHC                        
-TSRA/-SHRA...AND TEMPS.                                                        
SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOWING ECHOES SE SD TRYING            
TO GET GOING SINCE 05Z AND FINALLY A NICE BROKEN LINE WAS FORMING               
SINCE 06Z FM N OF ONL TO AROUND SANTEE...FSD..AND TO GRANITE FALLS              
MN.  LINE OF ACCAS ON IR AND TSRA IN AREA OF HIGH PW/K INDEX VALUES             
OF 35+/ALONG H85 JET.  H85 JET AREA SAGGING SE...HOWEVER...CLOUD                
ELEMENTS MOVING N.  MORE FAVORED PWS/KINDEX VALUES SHIFTING N BY 12Z.           
IR STLT HAD CONVECTION OVR WRN NEB WEAKENING AND COMPLEX CNTRL SD               
MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. BETTER CONVECTION IN GENERAL AREA OF                  
UVV/UPR LEVEL DIV ERN WY-SD AND SECONDARY MAX WRN WY.  MOST ACTIVE              
AREAS PER STLT/LGTNG OVR MEXICO AND SRN TX WITH REMNANTS OF TS FAY.             
STLT/METARS ALSO PICKING UP ON ST FLOW FM TX/OK INTO DDC KS.  A                 
QUICK LOOK AT THE RUC80 INCREASES THE ST IN SW NEB...WELL TO THE W              
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE OAX SOUNDING HAD A NICE MOIST LYR AT 770MB               
AND S FLOW THRU 550MB.  NOT SURPRISED TO SEE A PATCH OF CLDS AT                 
FNB.  TOP WAS SATURATED AT 790MB AND HAD A PW OF 1.62 INCHES.                   
DISTURBED AREA OF CLDS OVR MO/WHERE LAPSE RATES STEEP/WHERE THERE IS            
UVV. LATEST SFC MAP HAD THE COLD FNT THUR VTN AND PIR WITH 1-3MB                
PRES RISES AND DEWPOINTS POOLED IN THE AREA.                                    
SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FCST AREA WILL BE                 
MAINLY DRY THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING POPS NW COUNTIES TAF...CHC            
OF PRECIP SPREADING SE INTO TUE...THEN DRYING AND COOLER WED.                   
AGAIN...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF OUTPUT AND THE TREND HAS               
BEEN FOR LESS PRECIP FOR THE FCST AREA.  UVV FIELDS LESS IMPRESSIVE             
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AND IS BEST W AND N OF THE FCST AREA.                
CURRENT POPS IN THE 30-60% RANGE INTO TUE.  MID LVL RH RETURNS LATE             
WED NIGHT/THU PATTERN WARRANTS HIGHER POPS THAN ETA HAS. NGM MOS                
GUID HAS BEEN RUNNING 2-4 DEG TOO COOL LATELY AND ETA MOS 0-2 DEG               
TOO WARM.  NEW GUID TRENDS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESS OF PRE                
FRONTAL TROF AND CDFNT. H85 TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS SUN WITH A                  
LITTLE LESS MIXING.  FRONTAL TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN TO AROUND 06Z AT            
OFK AND AFT 12Z AT FNB. WILL ADJUST CURRENT FCST TO AGREE WITH                  
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  TEMPS WED AND THU MAINLY 70S.                          
IN LATER PERIODS...A VARIETY ON MINOR SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT THE FCST             
AREA.  TREND TOWARD AN UPR TROF OVR THE NATION/S MID SECTION WITH               
COOL TEMPERATURES.  THE SFC FNT WILL RMN TO OUR S WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
DOMINATING.  FMR GUID TEMPS FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S LOOK A BIT               
EXCESSIVE FOR SUN AT OMA.  MEX HAS 70S...WHICH LOOKS MORE                       
REASONABLE.  NEWER MRF NOT A DEEP WITH THE UPR TROF AND SLOWER THEN             
THE ECMWF.                                                                      
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
320 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
FCST CONCERNS...CHC PCPN TODAY AND THEN TEMPS.  CHECKED ISC GRIDDS              
FROM DLH/ABR AND WE DONT SEEM TOO FAR OFF.                                      
.CURRENT...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ALL BUT FAR SE CWFA AT 08Z.  FRONT              
IS BEING PROPELLED EASTWARD BY SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO WRN MANITOBA.             
SOME TSRA DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVR NW MN AND SE MB AND               
THIS WILL EXIT FAR ERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHER TSRA                    
DEVELOPING IN WCNTRL MN AND ERN SD ALONG SRN PART OF FRONT AS CAP IS            
FINALLY BROKEN.  WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE IN SW WYOMING WITH                     
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS AND RADARS SHOWING SOME SHRA/TSRA MOVING               
NNE THROUGH WYOMING INTO SCNTRL MT.  IT IS THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL              
HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                                             
USED RUC FOR SHORT TERM AND ETA THRU 84HRS.                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
VORT MAX IN WYOMING WILL MOVE ENE AND BE IN ERN SD BY LATE TONIGHT.             
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL EXPAND ENE AHD OF THIS FEATURE.  MODELS            
IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MAJORITY OF PCPN IN SD....BUT HOWEVER WATER             
VAPOR AND SATELLITE SHOWS LIGHTNING STRIKES QUITE FAR NORTH IN                  
WYOMING AND MID-UPR CLOUDS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THUS WILL                   
MENTION SOME AFTN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF ERN ND (EXCEPT DVL) AND NW AND            
WCNTRL MN TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR WCNTRL MN.               
WITH QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS MOVING THRU...TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN              
CHECK WITH NOT MUCH VARIATION.  WARMEST TEMPS MIGHT BE IN DVL ZONE              
WHERE BEST SHOT OF SUN IS.  SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE                  
ZONES) AND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT LOWS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.                   
.LONGER RANGE...                                                                
LARGE HIGH DROPS SOUTH INTO CNTRL PLAINS FOR TUE-WED WITH WARMING               
AND LIGHT WEST WINDS INVADING NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STORM              
IN NW CANADA.  WENT WITH WARMER ETA 85H TEMPS TUE-WED AND WITH FULL             
SUN EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS.  CHANGED THURSDAY TO DRY              
AS NEXT 50H SYSTEM WILL THRU JAMES BAY AND NOT AFFECT OUR REGION.               
NEXT LOW AND FRONT TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT WITH COOLER WX SAT-SUN.                  
MOVED UP MENTION OF SHOWERS TO FRI AFTN AND THEN CONTNIUED MENTION              
INTO SATURDAY UNDER COOL AIR ALOFT.  PREV EXTENDED TEMPS SEEM TOO               
COOL SO RAISED THEM UP SOME.                                                    
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                      
VIS IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST AREAS           
THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN              
AND WESTERN SECTIONS. PALESTINE WIND PROFILER SHOWS SOUTHEAST FLOW              
THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THUS EXPECT THE WESTERN              
TWO THIRDS TO KEEP CLOUD COVER ALL DAY. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS             
IN THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE NOTED AT 12Z JAN              
SOUNDING. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE ACROSS THE EAST AS               
NOTED ON WINNFIELD PROFILER...THUS EXPECT THIS DRIER AIR TO MAKE A              
GOOD PUSH INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHEAST LA TODAY.                            
LOCAL RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW              
AR WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT INDICATED. LATEST RUC MODEL IN AGREEMENT           
WITH SHORT TERM PROGS IN KEEPING SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY            
BUT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WEAKENING BY AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO                  
REALIGN ZONE GROUPINGS A LITTLE FOR OUR UPDATE AND MAY DROP MORNING             
MODIFIER. MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS IN E TX TODAY BUT DOES GET SHOVED               
WEST WITH DRIER AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST. MAY LOWER POP JUST A               
LITTLE IN THE WEST BUT KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE EAST FOR THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF DESTABILIZATION WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER.                  
TEMPS OVERALL LOOK PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT 15Z TEMPS                
BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.                                                      
UPDATE PLANNED FOR 1100 AM...13.                                                
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
927 AM EDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOC WITH GUSTAV IS ALREADY ONSHORE AND CONTINUES TO              
SPREAD WEST. 00/06Z RUNS OF THE ETA PLUS THE 00Z NGM RUN ARE VERY               
DISCONCERTING WITH SUGGESTIONS OF A SOUTH CAROLINA LANDFALL PLACING             
OUR CWA SQUARELY UNDER THE GUN. 10 AM NHC CONF CALL WILL ANSWER MANY            
QUESTIONS CONCERNING ANY POSSIBLE TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY AND LATEST RUC SHORT-TERM RUNS SHOW THE MID LEVEL RIDGE                 
HOLDING STRONG FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTHWEST DOWN THE                    
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IF A WEAKNESS IS GOING TO DEVELOP AND TURN            
GUSTAV AWAY...IT WILL HOPEFULLY MANIFEST ITSELF SOON.                           
PLAN ON TWEAKING THE ZFP TO ADJUST SKY COVER WITH THICKER CLOUDS                
ALREADY INTO THE AREA. WILL ALSO RAISE POPS THIS AFTN FOR PENDER AND            
NEW HANOVER COUNTIES WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD                   
GETTING OMINOUSLY CLOSE ON RADAR. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A TAD TOO HIGH -            
MAY ADJUST INTO A LOWER RANGE IN SPOTS.                                         
ANY CHANGES AFTER 10 AM CALL WILL BE DETAILED HERE IF NEEDED.                   
MARINE: WIND/SEAS CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS GUSTAV NUDGES CLOSER TO THE             
CAROLINAS. FRYING PAN SHOALS SHOWING SPEEDS OF 30-35 KTS AND 7 TO 8             
FT SEAS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS TREND IS IN LINE W/ THE CURRENT FCST            
SO AN UPDATE WILL BE REQUIRED TO MAINLY CLEAN UP THE EARLIER                    
CONDITIONS. WILL UPDATE THE AFD IF NEEDED AFTER THE UPCOMING CONF               
CALL.                                                                           
FCSTID = 09                                                                     
ILM   81  70  80  70 /  20  60  70 20                                           
LBT   84  68  85  68 /  10  30  30 10                                           
FLO   85  69  85  68 /  10  30  30 10                                           
MYR   83  70  83  70 /  20  40  50 20                                           
.ILM...                                                                         
.NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR.                            
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE FEAR TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.                     
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.                
PUBLIC: TRA                                                                     
MARINE: SRP                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1015 AM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM...THE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE REMNANTS OF FAY IS                 
EVIDENT ON VSBL SATL AND SURFACE OBS TO BE ROUGHLY NEAR COT WITH NO             
REAL MOVEMENT EVIDENT ATTM.  THE MORNING CONV FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS            
DISSIPATED OVER THE BRO CWA WITH THE BULK OF THE CONV ASSOCIATED                
WITH FAY REMAINING CONCENTRATED OVER THE CRP AND EWX CWAS WHERE                 
APPARENT SURFACE LOW LEVEL CONV CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE CONV                   
ACTIVITY.  THE 12Z BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF TROPICAL                
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TX WITH PWATS RANGING IN THE 2.4 TO 2.5            
INCH RANGE.                                                                     
MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF OUTLOOKS MAINTAIN THAT THE REMNANTS OF FAY               
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW SW DRIFT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN PWATS >2.0 INCHES             
IN THE SHORT TERM.  RUC DATA MAINTAINS SEVERAL POCKETS OF 5H                    
VORTICES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY.  THE              
MESO-ETA VORTICITY FIELDS SHOW A LITTLE DIFFERENT RESOLUTION                    
MAINTAINING THE BULK OF THE 5H VORTICITY CENTERED NEAR AND JUST                 
NORTH OF LRD.  AT THE MOMENT...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE RUC VORTICITY             
FIELDS PORTRAYING THE CURRENT CONV MORE ACCURATELY WITH THE NORTHERN            
CONV LYING JUST NORTH OF THE STRONGEST PVA INDICATED BY THE RUC VORT            
FIELDS.                                                                         
MID LEVEL CLD COVER IS SLOWING DOWN THE USUAL DIURNAL HEATING                   
TODAY...BUT BELIEVE THAT AFTERNOON CONV WILL BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT               
LATER BY THE WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPS.                                           
DUE TO THE SCT NATURE OF THIS MORNINGS CONV AND THE RECENT BREAK IN             
THE ACTIVITY...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THE MOMENT AS              
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM THE WGRFC SHOWS 6 HR REQUIREMENTS             
RANGING FROM 5 TO 6 INCHES.  WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS TREND THIS                   
AFTERNOON TO SEE IF A WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
OVERALL WORDING OF THE CURRENT ZFP LOOKS OK.                                    
MARINE...CIRCULATION AROUND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY                  
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE               
REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED            
OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS               
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH TEXAS.                 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT                 
EXTENSIVE FEEDER BAND ACTIVITY OFF THE GULF TO SPREAD INTO THE                  
COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT. BOY020 HAS LIGHT SOUTHWEST                        
WINDS...WITH SEAS DROPPING TO 5 FROM 6 FEET. EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO             
RESUME THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE. DEEP              
LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH BEGINNING ON                   
WED...DRYING OUT THE WEATHER AND SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE               
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.                                                            
SYNOPTIC...60/AVIATION-MARINE...62/MESO...ABBOTT                                
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
220 PM MDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: LONGWAVE PATTERN FINALLY UNDERGOING A CHANGE             
WITH LOWER PORTION OF WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO FILL AND             
LIFT NEWRD TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN            
GENERAL AGREEMENT AS THEY ALL OPEN UP TROUGH AND TRAVERSE IT ACRS               
THE GREAT BASIN STATES ON TUESDAY.  MEANWHILE MID/UPR LVL RIDGE OVER            
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS STATES WEAKENS AS ITS SLIDES SEWRD ACRS TX.                
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STEADY/CONTINUOUS               
STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP ACRS THE DESERT SW AND CNTRL RCKY             
MTN STATES. EAST OF THE MTNS...A COLD FRONT WHICH SLID S THRU NERN              
CO ERLY THIS MRNG PROGD BY RUC AND ETA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT                 
MOVES THRU SERN CO DURING EVE HRS. LOW LVL WND SHEAR AND                        
FRONTOGENTIC FORCING SHOULD FOCUS MOST OF SHWR AND T-STORM COVERAGE             
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE OVERNIGHT. HWVR RUC AND ETA SHIFT THIS              
BOUNDARY AXIS E AND JUST S OF OUR CWFA AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO FRONTAL             
INDUCED CONVECTIVE PCPN MAY ALSO SHIFT OUT OF OUR CWFA SOON AFTER.              
MEANWHILE WIND GRIDS SHOW UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENING THRU THE EVE               
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS STG SFC HIGH NOSES SEWRD ACRS NEB OVRNGT.              
LATEST MM5 IS INDICATING FM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IN AND               
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE NEXT 24 HRS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AT ITS                
STRONGEST. GREATEST PCPN LKLY TO OCCUR IN THE SRN FRONT RANGE FTHLS             
(ZONE 36) AND OVER HIGHER TRRN ALONG THE MONUMENT RIDGE (ZONES                  
41..46 AND 47) WHERE MM5 IS GIVING 24-HR RAINFALL AMTS UPWARDS OF AN            
INCH. EVEN HIGHER AMTS (IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES) COULD ACCUMULATE IN              
LINCOLN CTY WHERE VRY HVY RAINS FELL LAST NIGHT. THUS A FLASH FLOOD             
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MDT FOR ZONES 36..46..47..               
49..50 AND 51. AS FOR REMAINDER OF CWFA CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN             
NEXT 24 HRS NOT LOOKING AS PROMISING WITH ATMOSPHERE PROBABLY TOO               
STABLE AND COOL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SHWRS.                   
OVERNIGHT TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AVN STILL             
CRANKING OUT A FEW INCHES AT ELEVATIONS GENERALLY ABV 10500 FT MSL.             
TUESDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GO UP SOME AS ELY UPSLOPE FLOW                
STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL            
DAY WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY ESPCLY IN THE MTNS...FTHLS AND                    
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FM OLD T.D. FAY            
AND VRY LGT S-SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AGAIN RESULT IN HVY RAIN PRODUCING            
SHWRS AND ELEVATED T-STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  TEMPS ON THE             
PLAINS TUE WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S WITH HVY CLOUD CVR.              
LONG TERM:  TUE NIGHT THRU THU...MODELS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE QUITE             
A BIT OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITING THE REGION.               
MEANWHILE UPR TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGD TO            
MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWERD ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKY MTN STATES BY ERLY             
FRI. PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE AMS OVR THE N-CNTRL MTNS AND NERN PLAINS              
OF CO MAY SEE LITTLE DRYING OR WARMING. FRIDAY AND BEYOND...AREA                
GOES UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NWLY FLOW WITH UPR TROF                    
MIGRATING ACRS THE UPR GREAT PLAINS. AFTER A GRDL REBOUND IN TEMPS              
UP THRU FRI...COULD SEE A SLIGHT DIG IN READINGS DURING THE WEEKEND             
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF WK COLD FNT SAT ACCORDING TO THE GFS.  BAKER               
.DEN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM MDT TUE...ZONES 36..46..47..49..            
       50 AND 51.                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
150 PM MDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF LOCALIZED FLOODING TONIGHT.                    
AT 20Z LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NORTH              
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CO/KS LINE INTO SOUTHEAST                
COLORADO...BASICALLY ALONG THE FRONT. OVERLAYING VARIOUS MODEL QPF              
FORECASTS ON TOP OF THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE ETA/AVN/RUC HAVING A             
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PARAMETER. FOR THE FORECAST WILL SIDE                
TOWARD THE ETA GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINS             
THE PAST FEW DAYS.                                                              
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES IT MAY THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT              
TO GENERATE WELL ADVERTISED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WITH              
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF            
THE FRONT LOCALLY FLOODING RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR           
EAST/SOUTHEAST CWA. IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL               
WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD MATCH THE              
DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST.              
WILL BUMP UP THE POPS A BIT GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT               
BETWEEN EACHOTHERS QPF OUTPUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S                 
NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 60S SOUTHEAST. FOR TUESDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY               
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME               
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS BUT MID LEVELS REMAIN MOIST.              
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE            
POPS ALSO IN THAT ORIENTATION. AS FAR AS TEMPS BOTH THE ETA/FWC MOS             
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO EACHOTHER. WITH CLOUDCOVER EXPECTED WONT DEVIATE            
FROM THESE TOO MUCH.                                                            
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...WILL GO CLOUDY BUT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY             
SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE MINOR 500 VORT               
MAX APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE            
HIGH ENOUGH THAT SOUTHWEST CWA COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG. LOWS AGAIN              
NEAR ETA/FWC MOS VALUES...MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.               
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH RIGHT                
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET TO OUR NORTHWEST. ACCOMPANIMENT OF SHOWERS AND           
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH              
TEMPS NEAR MET/FWC MOS VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S NORTHWEST              
TO MID 70S EAST.                                                                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...MAIN UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE                 
UNITED STATES BUT LINGERING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA.              
DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH                 
ETA/AVN SHOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA WHERE SURFACE                   
TROUGH EXISTS. PRECIP CONTINUES PER ETA/AVN THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW             
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 700 VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH            
APPEAR TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPWARD MOTION DEPICTED IN THE                  
MODELS. LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY                    
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.                                                           
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED             
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.              
LOWS A BIT COOLER AS HIGH BUILDS IN WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.                   
IN THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...ONE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA             
FRIDAY WITH TROUGHY/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...            
TROUGH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER MOVES EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO             
THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY                   
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH ON THE                  
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS FAR              
AS PRECIP CHANCES...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AND               
VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ON SATURDAY SURFACE HIGH                 
PUSHES INTO THE AREA BRINGING DRIER AIR WITH IT. WITH MUCH OF THE               
UPPER ENERGY TO OUR NORTH WILL GO AHEAD AND MAKE IT DRY. ON SUNDAY              
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES AS SURFACE HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH                
850 THTE-E AXIS MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA 700 AXIS RESIDES OVER THE              
AREA. WITH ANOTHER INCOMING AND A BIT STRONGER VORT MAX IN                      
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP. ON MONDAY IT WILL BE            
DRY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT HIGHER MOISTURE TOWARD THE FRONT               
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH.                            
THANKS TO MY SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION.                              
.GLD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR YUMA COUNTY COLORADO.                 
    ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT (7 AM CDT) WEST OF A LINE FROM                
       NORTON KANSAS TO OAKLEY KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO.               
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
230 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
SWLY FLOW ALF HAS A HUSKY IMPULSE IN THE WRN DAKS SPAWNING A                    
RATHER LARGE AREA OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. LOOKING AT THE FIRST 6-12                 
HOURS OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS, THE RUC AND MESOETA HAVE THAT PRETTY               
WELL NAILED AS COMPARED WITH THE ASSOCIATED 88D IMAGERY. THE VORT               
MAX AND 85H WAA ARE DVLPG SOME TSTMS JUST N OF THE WM FNT THERE.                
THE FNT AT 17Z RAN FM HURON SD TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND THE                
UPR LVL FLOW WL BE PARALLEL TO THIS MOIST BAROCLINIC ZONE FOR THE               
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH. SO AS THE VORT MAX IS             
EJECTED, THE ENERGY SHOULD MOVE THRU THE SERN PTN OF THE MN CWA AND             
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WIS, CLIPPING THE DLH AREA. ALL MODELS XCP THE NGM            
BRING A BIG OMEGA BULLEEYE OVR DLH AND IS WHY THE POPS ON THE MESOETA           
ARE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE UPR TROF IS OUT OF           
MN BY 12Z WED BUT LINGERS INTO WED MRNG IN WI. DRIER AIR THEN MIXES             
IN FM THE W. THAT IS A BIT SHORT LIVED AS WAA MOVES IN. SO WE'LL                
FOLLOW THE MESOETA QPF DEPICTION WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE GOOD. THAT                
BRINGS THE MAX PCPN SWATH FROM ABOUT BRD TO BAYFIELD OVRNGT. MESO ETA           
MOS IS ALSO ON TARGET AT 18Z.                                                   
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
CS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
400 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TIMING ENDING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THEN              
TEMPERATURES.  NO MAJOR INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS NOTED WITH MODELS               
WHEN EXAMINING THIS MORNING RAOBS.  ETA AND AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT               
WITH UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.  MAIN MODEL             
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WHICH              
DEVELOPS BEHIND LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.             
SHORT WAVE INFLUENCING CWA THIS AFTERNOON NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH                
CENTRAL WYOMING WITH RUC AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTING WAVE IS                  
CONTINUING TO GET SHEARED OUT.  AREA OF SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING                  
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  KUNR RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS NEARLY                  
COMING TO AN END ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA AND WILL CARRY EARLY EVENING            
SHOWER MENTION IN FAR WEST.  AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED            
BY MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK               
UPPER JET STREAK DOWNSTREAM OF AFOREMENTIONED WY TROUGH AXIS.  RUC              
DATA ALSO INDICATING INCREASING MAGNITUDE TO MID LEVEL FLOW IN                  
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK 700 HPA WAA ACROSS FAR                
EASTERN CWA.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND                   
ISOLATED THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CWA EXTENDING INTO FAR                    
SOUTHEAST CWA.  THIS AREA ALSO HAS WHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS             
WITH LOW LEVELS STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY WARMER.  AS MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CWA LATE THIS                          
EVENING...WILL BEGIN TO SEE CLEARING TAKE PLACE ON THE COLD SIDE OF             
MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WORKING INTO             
FAR EASTERN CWA TOWARDS MORNING.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY             
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.  WILL GO FOR             
UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHWEST WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR LONGER AND              
NEAR 50 ACROSS FAR EAST.                                                        
TUESDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL WITH MID LEVELS QUITE A BIT DRIER.  PWATS            
BEHIND SHORT WAVE FALL TO AROUND 0.6 INCHES WITH DEEP LAYER LOW RH              
IN MODEL TIME SECTIONS.  LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL APPROACH FROM THE            
WEST KEEPING WINDS IN THE 10 MPH RANGE FROM THE NORTH ACROSS MOST OF            
CWA.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTLES INTO CWA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WEAK            
SHORT WAVES FROM BAJA OF CALIFORNIA REGION EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER THE            
RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME APPEARS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL            
BE JUST SOUTH OF CWA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  HAVE                  
REMOVED SHOWER MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH LOW LEVELS STILL              
FAIRLY DRY.  WILL GO WITH LOW POPS FOR THURSDAY AS BEGIN TO GET                 
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL                 
THERMAL RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF UPPER WAVE.  HIGHS FOR LATE IN THE                
PERIOD REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARM ETA AND COOL AVN IN                    
STRENGTH OF THERMAL RIDGING FOR THURSDAY.                                       
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                         
MODELS HAVE FALLEN OUT OF GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WAS ENJOYED PAST               
FEW DAYS. THE MOST CONSISTENT APPEARS TO BE THE CANADIAN...SO HAVE              
LEANED MORE TOWARD THIS SOLN.                                                   
FIRST FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION. THE AVN SLOWS THE FRONT DOWN BY                  
NEARLY 12 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A ROUGH COMPROMISE. WITH FRONT             
MORE PERPENDICULAR TO UPPER FLOW...AND UPPER FLOW MOVING THROUGH                
FAIRLY QUICKLY...THINK THAT QUICKER SOLN OF THE CANADIAN SEEMS                  
REASONABLE.                                                                     
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT ON UPPER FLOW.                  
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES COME THROUGH...HELPING TO REINFORCE                 
TROFING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. NO PARTICULAR WAVE STANDS OUT FROM THE            
OTHERS...AND NONE ARE IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE WISE. IF ANYTHING...THEY              
REINFORCE THE COOL AIR ALREADY PRESENT. THE CANADIAN IS SLIGHTLY                
WEAKER AT 5H THAN THE AVN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS STRENGTHENED THINGS               
GREATLY. ANY PCPN CHANCES WITH UPPER WAVES WOULD BE SLIGHT AT                   
BEST...AND NOT WORTH THE MENTION CURRENTLY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS                
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING COOLISH TEMPERATURES AND                   
DECREASING CLOUDS.                                                              
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE            
ZONAL. TEMPS SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE WEEKEND TEMPS AS                    
THICKNESS VALUES AND 8H AND 7H TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM.                             
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MARSILI/HINTZ                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
340 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEMS...EVENING CONVECTION...TIMING/PRECIPITATION OF THE            
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM KDLH-KFSD...TEMPERATURE COOL                
DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                          
DATA ANALYSIS...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE                   
WEST...MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  NOTABLE BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER               
THE HIGH PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.  SATELLITE SHOWING            
SOME MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES               
WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER LAND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MAKING              
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.  PROFILER DATA SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW             
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE TRANSPORT OF THE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.             
LAPS/RUC SHOW THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
FORECAST AREA...WITH SBCAPES OF 2500-4000 J/KG.  TEMPERATURES IN THE            
LOWER 90S HAVE CAUSED THE CAP TO BREAK.  VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO                   
SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.  THUS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...THEN                
WEAKEN QUICKLY.  RADAR DETECTING THIS VERY THING.  WILL INCLUDE                 
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS EVENING.                                               
ONCE AGAIN...09/12Z ETA/AVN BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND BOTH SLOW              
THE FRONT DOWN FURTHER.  PROFILERS HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE                       
ADVANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  NOW...THE FRONT SHOULD BE DELAYED            
UNTIL TUESDAY.  ETA PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 310K-320K LAYER SHOW THE               
AREA OF MOISTURE ON SATELLITE OVER THE PLAINS VERY WELL AT 18Z.                 
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL BE             
CARRIED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS KEEPS MUCH OF THE                     
SATURATION NORTH OF THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO              
CAUSE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND MOVES                
THROUGH.  AM STILL CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW              
THE FRONT DOWN.  THE LATEST RUC RUN DOES TREND THIS WAY...SO WILL               
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.                        
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH THURSDAY.  JET STRUCTURE FAVORS                
KEEPING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE FAST FLOW...ALLOWING THE               
AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO MODIFY SOME EACH DAY.                         
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH FORECAST ABOUT 5 DEGREES                
OVER CLIMATE.  AMAZINGLY...MOS CONTINUES TO COME AROUND TO THIS                 
SOLUTION.                                                                       
NEXT SYSTEM EXITS THE WEST...AND MOVES TOWARD THE REGION TOWARD NEXT            
WEEKEND.  THAT FACT IS TRUE...BUT TIMING IS A CONCERN.  BASED ON                
TREND TOWARD FAST FLOW...MODELS USUALLY HANDLE SYSTEMS TOO SLOW.                
WILL TREND THIS WAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                                   
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIP INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FALL LIKE             
COOL DOWN EXPECTED.                                                             
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
315 PM CDT MON SEP 9 2002                                                       
PATTERN NOW UNDERGOING CHANGE AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINANT OVER          
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. TWO FEATURES            
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR NEAR TERM FORECAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD         
FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR DULUTH TO LOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD. ALOFT...           
SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SATELLITE AND OBS            
SHOWING LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER THE DAKOTAS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER         
FEATURE.                                                                        
MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR...AGAIN SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUN...BRINGING FRONT         
THROUGH THE GRB AREA AFTER 12Z TUE.  CURRENTLY...FEW SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...WHERE CAP IS             
WEAKER. RUC IS SHOWING POCKET OF SLIGHTLY LOWER 850 TEMPS IN THAT AREA.         
WILL ADD MENTION OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THOUGH PUSH BACK THE BULK OF        
THE PCPN TO MATCH FRONTAL MOVEMENT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE          
TO BE OVER THE NORTH AS RRQ OF JET MAX LIFTS INTO ONTARIO.                      
BUFFY SOUNDINGS SHOW SIG INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...STABILIZING BY         
AM TUE. LACK OF SIG SHEAR TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT        
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT.                                                             
HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN LATER TUE WITH CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS EXPECTED          
TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.                                                
IN EXTENDED...PATTERN IS FLUID WITH STRONG WESTERLIES REMAINING JUST            
NORTH OF US BORDER.  WILL KEEP NEXT CHANCE ON SAT INTO SUN.  5H HEIGHTS         
CONTINUE TO BE IN 570 RANGE INTO SAT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BUMP MRF             
GUIDANCE TEMPS UP.                                                              
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
TE                                                                              
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi