AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1120 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                     
...UPDATED TO INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR HENDRY..GLADES...AND               
INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON...                                   
AFTERNOON TALKING TO MLB AND LOOKING AT THE 12Z ETA 10 AND RUC                  
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND POST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR HENDRY...                 
GLADES...AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTIES. WITH TEMPERATURE CLIMBING INTO            
THE MID 80S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA SOME OF THE               
AIR DRY ALOFT...DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE AS HIGH AS 10 DEGREES                 
ABOVE 200 FEET...COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH THE WIND IS            
STILL A LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RELATIVE             
HUMIDITIES TO COME DOWN MORE THAN FORECASTED. ATTM WE ESTIMATE                  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP DOWN TO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 2 TO 3              
HOURS.                                                                          
.MIA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND INLAND COLLIER              
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
$$                                                                              
SANTOS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
948 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
PUBLIC UPDATE: SURFACE DEW POINT ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT               
THE FRONT IS STILL JUST N OF OUR CWFA AND IT/S SWD MOVEMENT HAS                 
SLOWED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NIGHT. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED A                
PWAT OF JUST 1.23 INCHES. MODIFYING FOR A 85/58 PARCEL YIELDS A CAPE            
OF JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AND AN LI OF -3. MORE THAN LIKELY WE WILL MIX            
EVEN MORE THAN THAT TO PERHAPS 88/55...SO CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL                
CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY SEEM REMOTE. STILL...WILL            
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY ISOLATED TSRA IN SE ZONES WHERE FROPA WILL              
BE DELAYED THE LONGEST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE                
VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. ALSO...MAY SEE ENOUGH CU FORM IN              
FL ZONES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY SUNNY.                           
MARINE: ETA AND RUC MODELS INDICATING WIND WILL STAY MORE NW THAN N             
TODAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 10 KT. THE OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC            
FLOW APPEARS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS BREEZES TO FORM NEAR SHORE              
AND WILL INDICATE SUCH.                                                         
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING NOON TIL SUNSET TODAY ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST             
     FROM LEON/WAKULLA COUNTY WESTWARD.                                         
     FIRE WX WATCH NOON TIL SUNSET TODAY ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST                
     FROM JEFFERSON COUNTY EASTWARD.                                            
     FIRE WX WATCH NOON TIL SUNSET MON ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST.                 
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
MCS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH A LARGE              
COLD POOL ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. WITH SUCH NONLINEAR PROCESSES                    
DOMINATING...WARM FRONT IN THE PLAINS HASN/T MOVED MUCH AT ALL. RUC             
GOES AGAINST MODELS AND DOESN/T MOVE WARM FRONT MUCH AT ALL                     
TONIGHT...COMPARED TO ETA/NGM/AVN. WEAK IMPULSES TO GENERATE ANOTHER            
MCS TONIGHT WITH IT COMING ACROSS OUR CWA. QG FORCING WEAK BUT LLJ              
POINTS RIGHT AT US WITH A RESPECTABLE THETA E RIDGE. ETA/NGM/AVN                
PUSH WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY BUT IF THE NEW MCS PUTS OUT A COLD               
POOL TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES WON/T BUDGE MUCH. THEREFORE WILL DELAY             
WARM FRONT A LITTLE WITH IT NOT PUSHING THROUGH ON MONDAY.                      
POTENTIAL EXITS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH MCS IF COLD POOL                    
DEVELOPS AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR.                                                 
FWC/FAN/MAV SIMILAR BUT WILL DO SOME UNDERCUTTING ON PRETENSE THAT              
SOME TYPE OF COLD POOL DEVELOPS MONDAY.                                         
EXTENDED WISE...NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT DUE TO HYDRO CONCERNS.                 
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO HAVE PRECIP CHANCES EACH DAY WITH WEAK IMPULSES              
MOVING THROUGH AREA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FRONTS.                              
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...AND ILX.                                           
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
SCHULTZ                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
225 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
ELEVATED SUPERCELL EVENT CONTINUES WITH ENVIRONMENT MODIFIED TO A               
POINT WHERE WE ARE NOT NEEDING AS MUCH REFLECTIVITY CORE ALOFT FOR              
LARGE HAIL.  CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE IN OUR CWA WITH            
BACKBUILDING SUBSIDING SOME IN DSM AREA.  OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED SURFACE            
BOUNDARY TO A TQE-ICL LINE WITH QUITE A TEMP GRADIENT.  RUC HAS GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS.  850 MB QG FRONTOGENEIS AS INCREASED IN SD INTO NW              
IA LAST 3 HOURS WITH LLJ TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AGAIN FOR A NEAR              
REPEAT SCENARIO.  QUESTION IS WILL SFC BASED CONVECTION FIRE ALONG              
OUTFLOW.  VIS SAT SUGGEST THIS THREAT MINIMAL SO FAR WITH NO CU                 
FIELD ALONG IT EXCEPT IN NW MO.  ELEVATED CELL GENESIS REGION LIKELY            
TO BE IN NW IA OR SE SD DROPPING SE, PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER W THAN               
ETA/AVN SHOWS BASED ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  WILL STAY THE COURSE ON               
THIS, WITH LARGE HAIL WORDING IN THE ZONES.  LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AS                
WELL.  SOME ENHANCED CLOUDS IN WESTERN NEBRA MAY BE A SHORTWAVE TO              
HELP THINGS OUT.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT AGAIN INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH             
LLJ MAX.  SHEAR PROFILE STILL AMPLE TO SUSTAIN ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.             
LONGER TERM...                                                                  
NOT MUCH TIME FOR LONGER RANGE, BUT QUICK LOOK THROUGH MODELS                   
INDICATES CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.  LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE               
WARM FRONT AIR SHOULD SURGE E OF OUR CWA BY 15-18Z, WITH STRONG CAP             
TAKING OVER.  I ALSO DON'T FORESEE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO               
NORTHERN IA DURING THE DAY, OR EVEN MONDAY NIGHT FOR THAT MATTER.               
WILL KEEP LOW POP GOING THOUGH WITH ANOTHER RESURGENCE IN 850 MB                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY.  LLJ MAY PROVIDE SOME                
SPEED CONVERGENCE AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOWING UP OVER                    
NEBRASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL MOVE INTO IA MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS            
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH IN MAY.                                                      
LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND             
WEAK FORCING.                                                                   
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1015 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                     
...PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...                                                   
AT 02Z THERE STILL WAS AN AREA OF LAYER AC WITH SPRINKLES OVER N                
CNTRL LK MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN... NORTH OF MKG. THIS              
SEEMS TO COME FROM A WEAK THROUGH AT THE SFC AND WERE A SECTION OF              
THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE PLAINS TURNS ANTICYCLONICLY INTO POLAR               
JET.  THE 00Z RUC MEAN 700 TO 850 RH PROG SHOW THE MOISTURE                     
TRANSLATING TO THE SE AND THINNING WITH TIME.  ALSO... GOING WITH               
THE LLJ IDEA... THE 850 TEMP ADVECTION MAXIMUM OVER LOWER MICHIGAN              
TONIGHT IS ACROSS NRN LWR ALL NIGHT LONG. MEANWHILE THE IR LOOPS                
SUGGEST THE AREA IS HEADED SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.  WILL MAKE                
LIFE EASY AND FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS.  ACTUALLY IT IS                 
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE CWA NOW... BUT THOSE CLOUDS WILL                  
SPREAD IN OVERNIGHT.  FEEL PUTTING TIMING WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TO             
WORDY... FOR HOW IMPORTANT PARTLY CLOUDY VERSE MOSTLY CLEAR REALLY              
IS.  LOWS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND 40 IN MOST PLACES               
SINCE THE AIR IS VERY DRY BELOW 850 MB AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE TEMPS AND WHETHER SHRA MENTION IS NEEDED            
LATE OVER FAR W.                                                                
WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVER CNTRL NAMERICA WITH HIGH AMPITUDE TROF              
OVER ERN NAMERICA. SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED RUNNING THRU RIDGE TOWARD SRN            
MANITOBA WITH ANOTHER HEADING FOR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SFC...               
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM MO TO WRN ND...MARKED BY WELL-DEFINED WIND              
SHIFT. SKIES HAVE BECOME CLR OVER MOST OF FA AS DIURNAL CLDS                    
DISSIPATING. SOME CI STREAKING SE INTO FA NOW FROM GENESIS REGION IN            
MANITOBA AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.                                                    
18Z ETA/AVN INDICATE TSRA DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS MN/MANITOBA AS             
STRENGTHENING 850MB LOW-LEVEL JET/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH             
SHORTWAVE. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED IN SRN MANITOBA IN THE LAST            
HALF HR. MOISTURE IS STREAMING TOWARD THIS AREA AS SATELLITE SHOWS              
STRATOCU FIELD LIFTING NNW ACROSS MN TOWARD DEVELOPMENT REGION. 00Z             
RUC SHOWS 850MB WARM FRONT/AXIS OF CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT FROM ERN            
IA TO SE MANITOBA. WITH SHARP GRADIENT OF K INDEX/SHOWALTER INDEX               
AND 850MB THETA-E...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO A RELATIVELY               
NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR SLOW MOVING 850MB WARM FRONT ONCE IT DEVELOPS.             
ASSUMING DEVELOPMENT FROM MANITOBA INTO MN...TSRA WILL STAY W OF FA             
GIVEN 850-500MB THICKNESS INDICATING A SSE MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE...               
MASS OF MID/HIGH CLD UPSTREAM WILL STREAK SSE ACROSS MAINLY W HALF              
OF FA OVERNIGHT.                                                                
SFC DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM 35-40F N TO 45-50F S. CURRENT FCST             
MINS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD GIVEN DWPTS...BUT WILL BUMP UP                         
IRON/DICKINSON GROUP WITH DWPTS NEAR 50F CURRENTLY AND FAIRLY QUICK             
SE PROGRESS OF UPSTREAM MID/HIGH CLOUD.                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
644 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
...UPDATED NW CWA FOR SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS...                              
LATEST VIS/IR SATELLITE LOOPS AND 88D RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN AREA OF               
SHOWERS MOVING SE ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN TVC AND SVE (AT              
2245Z).  THAT AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 700 TO 300 MB QVEC                 
CONVERGENCE (BASED ON THE 22Z RUC).  MODEL SOUNDING AND SFC OBS                 
CONFIRM ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB.  THE 800             
TO 750 LAPSE RATE GETS AS HIGH AS 8C/KM THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA.              
SINCE THE CONVECTION IS ELEVATED THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE IT               
WILL JUST DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO... SO UPDATED THE ZONES              
TO PUT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NW CWA THIS EVENING.                            
THE SAME RUC THAT SHOWS THE CONVECTION NICELY AT 22Z SUGGEST THIS               
SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z... SO LITTLE THREAT TO SW               
AND W CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GRR CWA.   SFC LI FROM 22Z MSAS ARE IN            
THE +5C TO +10C RANGE OVER SRN LK MICHIGAN AND SW LWR MICHIGAN THIS             
EVENING.  WHERE THE CONVECTION WAS AT 22Z THOSE SAME LI'S ARE BELOW             
2C. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THOSE SHOWERS DO IN THE NEXT 2            
HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER... FOR NOW IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THE              
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE.  SO I WILL LEAVE THE SW CWA ZONES AS IS FOR               
NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION TO SEE IF IT REALLY             
DOES QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z.                                               
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW BIG RDG OVR CNTRL                    
NAMERICA BTWN HI AMPLITUDE TROF OFF E CST AND FLATTER TROF ALG PAC              
NW. AT THE SFC...TROF NOTED ACRS CWA BTWN HI PRES RDG FM LK SUP INTO            
ONTARIO AND ANOTHER ONE OVR OH VALLEY. SCT -SHRA/ISOLD TSRAGS DVLPD             
OVR SCNTRL CWA ALG THIS BNDRY WITH DAYTIME HTG BLO CHILLY H7-H5                 
TEMPS AND WHERE EARLIER RUC SHOWED SHOWALTER INDEX DROPPING BLO 0.              
DWPTS OVR CWA GENERALLY IN 40S...WITH SKIES MCLR OVR THE NW AND                 
PCLDY WITH ISOLD -SHRA CONTG ACRS THE S. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED MOVG              
THRU SW CAN INTO UPR RDG ACRS PLAINS.                                           
FOR TNGT...RUC AND ETA SHOW SFC TROF BTWN HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND OH             
VALLEY SINKING SLOWLY SWD WITH DRY/STABLE AIRMASS (KINX UNDER 10)               
AND H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC/H4-2 DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO HI PRES                
OVRSPRDG CWA IN NWLY FLOW ALF. SO ANY LINGERING CLDS/SHRA ACRS THE S            
WL DEPART EARLY WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG ACCELERATING THEIR DEMISE.             
ETA/NGM HAVE TRENDED TOWARD MORE AGGRESSIVE DRYING TNGT WITH DRIER              
AIR HOLDING ITS GROUND AND BEING MORE TENACIOUS THAN BEFORE (AS                 
MEASURED BY H85 DWPT). AVN IS JUST THE OPPOSITE WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE            
MOISTENING OF THE MID LVLS OVR THE SW ZNS AHD OF MCS DVLPMNT FCST BY            
ETA/AVN 06Z-12Z ACRS NRN PLAINS AS SHRTWV IN SW CAN INTERACTS WITH              
AXIS OF HIER INSTABILITY/H85 LLJ ABV SFC-H85 WARM FNT THERE. NGM/ETA            
TREND MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN DVLPG TROF OFF E CST...WHICH WOULD TEND            
TO HOLD DRIER AIR OVR THE LKS INSTEAD OF MOVG IT E QUICKLY. AVN ALSO            
FCST MCS TO DVLP FARTHER N THAN ETA...IN FAR SRN ONTARIO VS NCNTRL              
MN. SINCE ETA DVLPMNT APPEARS BETTER TIED TO FVRD FARTHER S H85 WARM            
FNTL POSITION AND AVN FCST MCS DVLPMNT TOO FAR N LAST YEAR WAS A                
MODEL BIAS WITH POORER PLACEMENT OF LLVL BNDRYS TO INTERCEPT MSTR...            
PREFER ETA FCST. EXACT LOCATION HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WRN CWA BECAUSE            
MCS WL TRACK SSE LATE TNGT/MON MRNG PER FCST H85-3 THKNS PATTERN.               
AVN SOLN WOULD SUG IWD WOULD BE IN DIRECT PATCH OF SYS...WHILE ETA              
INDICATES MAIN BULK OF MCS WL TRACK W OF IWD. SINCE ETA SOLN                    
PREFERRED AND EVEN AVN DOESN'T GENERATE ANY PCPN OVR IWD THRU 12Z...            
WL DROP POPS FOR IWD. XPCT INCRSG CLDS LATE OVR REST OF W LATE. MIN             
TEMPS WL BE LOWEST OVR THE E... WHERE AIRMASS WL BE DRIEST AND WND              
LGT IN MORE PERSISTENT RDG AXIS. MOS FCST MINS OF 35 TO 40 HERE SEEM            
RSNBL. ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED MENTIONING PTCHY FROST INLAND OVR THE E            
EARLIER...PRESENT DWPTS IN 40S IN THE ABSENCE OF STRG LLVL DRYING A             
BIT TOO HI TO GET TEMPS CLOSE TO 32. DEW MORE LIKELY.                           
FOR MON...ETA TRACKS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED H5 VORT MAX THAT DVLPS                
WITH MCS INTO DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVR CWA HELD IN PLACE BY TROFFING              
TO E. AVN IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH VORT INTENSITY/MOISTENING/               
SPRDG OF RA TO THE E AND DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF DRIER ETA FOR                   
REASONS OUTLINED ABV AND SINCE SFC WARM FNT REMAINS WELL TO S OF CWA            
DURG DAY WITH ANY CVCTN ALG THIS BNDRY SUCKING UP MSTR FM FARTHER N.            
NGM MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO DRIER ETA...WHICH SHOWS PCPN MOVG EWD TO               
MQT-NR ESC BY LATE IN DAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 295K TO 305K SFCS             
AND H4-2 DVGC IN RRQ OF UPR JET HELPING TO MOISTEN INITIALLY DRY                
AIRMASS. HAVE REMOVED POPS OVR THE ERN ZNS E OF WHERE KINX = 25 AND             
UNDERCUT MAV POPS TOWARD LWR FWC FCST. RESTRICTED MENTION OF                    
ELEVATED TSRA TO FAR WRN ZNS IN AFTN...ONLY PLACE WHERE ETA COMPUTED            
LI FM H8 (MOST UNSTABLE) IS UNDER ZERO THRU 00Z CLOSER TO APRCHG H85            
WARM FNT. SINCE AVN SPRDS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...AND THICKER CLD...               
FARTHER E THAN ETA/NGM... TENDED TOWARD HIER FWC FCST MAX WITH                  
EXPECTATION FOR MORE INSOLATION. WITH DVLPG SSELY FLOW...XPCT MAX LK            
MODERATION ALG LK MI BORDER ZNS.                                                
ETA SHOWS LINGER UPR DVGC/DEEPEST MSTR/AND BEST H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC             
EXITING TO THE SE MON NGT...BUT WITH PLENTY OF LLVL MSTR REMAINING              
IN SFC SSELY FLOW ARND HI PRES IN QUEBEC AND N OF SFC WARM FNT.                 
ALTHOUGH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO H85 WARM FNT AT NGT WORRISOME...ETA                 
SHOWS H85 WNDS/295K-305K ISENTROPIC WEAKENING...SO XPCT LINGERING               
-SHRA TO END OVRNGT. MOIST SELY FLOW SUPPORTS LWR DIURNAL TEMP                  
VARIATION WITH TENDENCY TOWARD HIER FWC FCST MINS. SOME UPR LVL                 
DRYING ABV LLVL MSTR SHUD ALLOW AT LEAST PTCHY FOG FORMATION.                   
BLDG RDG TO DOMINATE ON TUE...WITH SUNSHINE DVLPG AS INSOLATION OVR             
ST IN PLACE MIXES LLVL MSTR OUT. WL WORD INCRSG SUNSHINE ALL ZNS...             
AND TEND TOWARD HIER FWC FCST MAX GIVEN ETA FCST H85 TEMPS FM 8C IN             
THE E TO 15C OVR THE W AND AVN FCST 8 IN THE E TO 13C IN THE W. ETA             
DROPS LI TO NR ZERO AT IWD LATE IN DAY WITH WAVE ON SFC WARM FNT                
APRCHG NW WI...BUT A LOOK AT FCST SDNG SHOWS KINX OF 18 WITH                    
CONVECTIVE TEMP 80 TO 85 AND TOO LARGE A NEGATIVE AREA TO BE BKN BY             
WEAK TROFFING INTO SW CWA. SO NO MENTION OF PCPN. XPCT INCRSG CLDS              
OVR CWA TUE NGT W-E WITH CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AT IWD AHD OF NXT                
SHRTWV. GIVEN FAST ZONAL FLOW ACRS US/CAN BORDER IN THE W...PREFER              
FASTER SPEED OF ETA SHOOTING THIS SYS EWD.                                      
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF UPR             
PATTERN THIS WEEK. ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE BACKED OFF FM DVLPG DEEP             
TROF OVR THE GRT LKS MID WEEK AND NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH MRF/UKMET IN            
MAINTAINING MEAN RDG INTO WRN LKS MOST OF THIS WEEK BTWN DEEP TROF              
OFF NE CST AND LWR AMPLITUDE TROF NR PAC NW S OF GLFAK LO. TRICK FOR            
EXTENDED FCST IS TIMING AND COVG OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH                   
SHRTWVS EMERGING FM FAST FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF GLFAK LO AND MOVG THRU            
UPR RDG IN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVG A            
TROF THRU NW LKS ON WED...SO WL MAINTAIN CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN. RDGING             
FOLLOWS ON THU WITH THE HIEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK AS MRF SHOOTS H85               
TEMP NR 14C OVR THE FAR SW. THEN  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON TIMING             
OF SHRTWVS LATE IN WEEK. MRF AND ECMWF QUICKEST DRIVING SYS THRU ON             
FRI WITH CLRG FOR SAT...BUT OTHR MODELS/A NUMBER OF MRF ENSEMBLES               
APPEAR SLOWER WITH THIS SHRTWV OR FASTER IN BRINGING NXT SHRTWV ALG.            
GIVEN  HI UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...WL CONT PCPN CHCS THRU NXT                
WEEKEND.                                                                        
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
250 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                 
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF            
THE PACKAGE. FOR RAIN CHANCES...THE LATEST NGM GOES BONKERS ON                  
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA                
PANHANDLES...THEN BRINGS RAIN INTO A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS BEG              
TO DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE AVN DOES HINT AT ACTIVITY                  
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE EXTREME WEST. EXPERIMENTAL ETA-KF AND                  
20KM-RUC KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT IN THE PANHANDLES...WITH              
POSSIBLE SHOWERS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY             
TUESDAY MORNING. SO...WHAT TO DO. ONE THING ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE             
ON IS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN OVER THE             
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THEY JUST DIFFER ON ADVECTING PRECIP FROM THE                 
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WITH DEVELOPING WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. WE THINK               
THE TRUTH LIES SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN GIVEN LATEST U/A DATA AND WATER             
VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH INTERACTION OF LEE TROF...MOISTURE...AND RIDGE              
WEAKNESS...WILL ADD LOW POPS TO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA             
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                                           
FROM THE LATTER HALF OF TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...MID/UPPER            
LEVEL RIDGE REESTABLISHES ITSELF...YIELDING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.            
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS ALL            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DEVELOP SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.                      
WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN SOME...AND THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE             
NORTHWEST OF AREA...WILL KEEP 90S OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT               
MID WEEK...WHEN RIDGE GETS GOING AGAIN. THOSE FORECASTE TEMPERATURES            
WILL COME CLOSE TO RECORDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS.                
THANKS FOR COORD AMA.                                                           
FCSTID = 11                                                                     
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...                                                      
OKC   63  84  64  86 /   0   0   0  10                                          
HBR   63  86  64  88 /   0   0  20  20                                          
SPS   64  87  64  88 /   0   0   0  10                                          
GAG   63  88  62  89 /   0  10  30  20                                          
PNC   63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0  10                                          
DUA   64  85  65  86 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
936 AM CDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
LATEST 700/500 MB ANALYSES SHOW COMPRESSIONAL WARMING UNDERWAY WITH             
HIGH HEIGHTS AND LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. 12Z OUN SOUNDING                   
SUPPORTS LOW 80S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER RUC GUIDANCE                
CONTINUES THE WARMING PROCESS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN 850 MB               
TEMPS RISING AN AVERAGE OF 2 DEGREES CELSIUS BY THE END OF THE DAY.             
WITH CURRENT SURFACE TEMPS AVERAGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED            
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND NEARLY A FULL DAY OF DIABATIC HEATING                
DEEP MIXING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER FORECAST HIGHS FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO RAISE FORECAST HIGHS               
ABOUT 1 CATEGORY. THIS WOULD PUT NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO THE UPPER              
80S AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE 80S.                   
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
LARGER SCALE PATTERN HAS RIDGING IN CHARGE ALFT JUST TO W TODAY.                
FORMER CONVECTION FM LAST NIGHT HAS ALLOWED MID LVL BNDRY TO REMAIN             
NRLY STATIONARY TDA...AND SFC FRONTAL ZONE...ALONG WHICH MSTR HAS               
BEEN POOLING ALL DAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S /SORRY ETA...NOT MID             
70S...THANKS FOR PLAYING/...HAS MOVED RELATIVELY LITTLE AS WELL.  TO            
THE NORTHEAST OF WMFNT NEAR LAST NIGHTS RAINS...HEATING OF POOLING              
MSTR BLO LOW LVL INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN A FAIR AMT OF CAPPED                 
CU...ADVECTING SLOWLY NW PRECEDING FRONT...MOST SIG NORTH OF                    
KSLB-KSHL-KPQN LINE. HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIXING OUT IN PAST HOUR OR SO.             
MAIN ISSUES REALLY ARE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AND THEN              
HOW WARM FOR MONDAY...BEFORE NEXT THREAT OF STORMS ALG BNDRY ON MON             
NIGHT AND TUE.                                                                  
MANY INGREDIENTS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF                
ELEVATED CONVECTION. SFC BASED JUST TOO CAPPED.  ONE HINT ON RUC IS             
THAT BEST OF LLJ KIND OF SPLITS ARND KFSD CWA...SOME STAYING FOCUSED            
ACRS FAR SE THIS EVENING...WITH REST REFOCUSING FARTHER N AND W.                
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF LIFT PROGGED TO DEVELOP...ALG WITH NICE 7-5H             
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM.  SEEMS AS LONG AS THERE IS MSTR TO              
USE...THERE SHUD BE AT LEAST SCT HAILERS IN ERN/NERN CWA.                       
DEVELOPMENT SHUD BE TIED TO INCREASING 850 HPA LLJ AND FRONTOGENESIS            
WHICH WOULD FAVOR A 03Z-06Z INITIATION. ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC AND                 
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON YIELD SUFFICIENT ELEVATED SHEAR             
FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIFT NE...WITH CELL PROPOGATION SE            
FOR RIGHT MOVERS...TRENDING TOWARD E WITH TIME. WMFNT WL TRUDGE NE              
AND GET BOOST FM INCREASING LO LVL FLOW...SO WATCH TO PROGRESS FAIRLY           
WELL BY LTR TNGT.                                                               
BY MONDAY...WL SEE WK CDFNT FRONT TRYING TO OOZE SEWRD INTO CWA...              
SLOWER THAN PROGGED BEFORE.  MID LVL TMPS TORRID FOR MAY...SO MOST              
IF NOT ALL CONVECTION SHUD BE SUPPESSED.  FLY IN OINTMENT IS THAT               
WHILE MSTR BECOMES VERY SHALLOW DUE TO WLY COMP OF OFF SFC FLOW...              
AND FRONT FEATURES DECENT CONVERGENCE. WL KEEP IN CHC OF LT DAY FAR             
N AND NWRN CWA...WHICH WL PROGRESS SE AND INCREASE A BIT FOR ADDTL              
CONVERGENCE/SOME MID LVL COOLING AND NOCTURNAL BOOST IN WNDS.                   
WARMEST MON SHUD BE SWRN CWA ALG MO RVR...WHERE AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO            
BE THE MOST DRY AND READILY HEATABLE.                                           
SIG DIFFERENCE IN SHORT RANGE MDLS IS STRENGTH OF TROUGH WHICH                  
CROSSES RIDGE MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM...WITH AVN STGR...AND MORE                  
AGGRESIVE WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS THRU REGION ON TUE.                  
WOULD TEND TO SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DENSITY RULES RATHER THAT                 
DYNAMICALLY RULED IN AVN...BUT WL HEDGE TIMING BETWEEN THE TWO FOR              
NOW WHICH WILL PUT IT INTO NERN NEBR TO WCNTRL IA BY EVNG. WL                   
CONTINUE VRY WARM TMPS TO S...AND NOT AS WM N.  WITH LIKELIHOOD OF              
MESOSCALE PROCESSES CONTROLLING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RATHER THAN              
LARGE SCALE FEATURES...WL HAVE TO BACK OFF AND ADD IN A SMALL CHC OF            
PRECIP MOST ZONES FOR TUE.  MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER CHC ON TUE                 
NIGHT INTO ERLY WED E AS MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND COLLAPSING OF MID            
LVL WARM POOL AS TROUGH MOVES BY N OF REGION COULD ENTICE A FEW MORE            
STORMS.                                                                         
TO MY SURPRISE...THE EXTENDED RANGE CONTINUES PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE             
LINE OF YDA...AND NEEDED CHANGES APPR TO BE RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT.           
ECMWF...WHILE NOT AS EMPHATIC ON RIDGING MIDWEEK...HAS TRENDED QUITE            
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THAT DIRECTION. EVEN CANADIAN IS MUCH MORE RIDGY BY            
WED INTO ERLY THU. ERLY IN PD...SHUD BE REELING A BIT WED FM SHLW               
COOLER PUSH...SO TMPS NOT AS WM AS MIXING OUT GUIDANCE WUD SUGGEST.             
IRONICALLY...THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE SOME OF THE MORE HUMID TIME.             
WMST DAY OF EXTENDED SHUD BE THU FOR MOST...AND IF NOT FOR INFAMOUS             
MONTH OF MAY 1934...WOULD HAVE SHOT AT RECORDS...EXCEPT PERHAPS FAR             
WRN CWA.  STILL INDICATING A STG WAVE/FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU/THU                
NGT... BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING INDICATED BY ENSEMBLES...SO             
FOR NOW WL HOLD THE LINE.  ATM SHUD BE STRONGLY CAPPED PRECEDING                
FNT...BUT INDUCTION OF LIFT BY STG MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS/COOLING                
ALFT SHUD BREAK CAP AND ALLOW FOR TSRA ALG AND JUST BEHIND BNDRY.               
TAIL END OF FNT LOOKS TO DRAG A BIT WITH CONFUSED Q VECTORS ALFT...             
WAITING FOR MAIN PUSH DURG FRIDAY AS JET ENTRANCE STARTS TO TAKE                
CONTROL.  SHUD REMAIN LARGELY DRY REST OF AREA FRIDAY INTO SAT...               
BEFORE MSTR RETURN INTO JET ENTRANCE THICKENS CLDS DURG LTR SAT AND             
ALLOWS MORE COOLER/WET WEATHER FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEKEND SPLIT               
FLOW...AND STG CONFLUENT JET TO NE...AND LIFT OVR MID PLAINS FRONTAL            
ZONE.                                                                           
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1002 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                     
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE SOME FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.                       
HI PRESS RIDGE TO BUILD ACRS SE CANADA AND THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY           
AND TONITE...AS AN UPR TROF MOVES IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST. S/W             
(AS SEEN IN H2O VAP IMAGERY) TO SLIDE BY TO THE S OF THE FA TODAY AS            
WELL. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST TODAY AND TONITE.                         
09Z 20KM FSL RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M40S (MTNS) TO THE              
L60S (VLYS). T1MAX TEMPS ARE 55-60F TODAY. WILL WIDEN UP MAX TEMP               
FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS. SFC               
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE N AT 10-20 KTS TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST                
PERIOD WINDS BASED ON THIS AND CURRENT OBS TRENDS AS WELL. LOW-LVLS             
TO DRY OUT ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWING JUST MID CLDS ACRS THE                
CHAMP VLY EASTWARD TODAY. GOES-8 VIS SAT PIX SHOW THESE CLDS ACTUALLY           
STARTING TO PULL OUT OF THE ERN ZONES ATTM. CU ALREADY POPPING ACRS             
THE HIR TRRN AS WELL ATTM. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONT FOR THE REST             
OF TODAY. RUC SHOWS ANY PCPN TO STAY UP IN SRN CANADA TODAY.                    
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA EARLY TODAY...THEN WK WAA LATER               
TODAY WITH WK CAA TONITE. SOME SMALL AMT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO MOVE            
IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE NW TONITE...WITH SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE                  
AFFECTING NY STATE BY LATER TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BECOME HI            
ACRS THE FA TODAY. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TONITE.             
HAVE TRIED TO INDICATE MORE SUNSHINE ACRS THE VLYS FOR THE REST OF              
TODAY IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT            
CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS FOR NOW...BUT MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME MORE                
CLOUDINESS TO THESE PERIODS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. JUST A FEW                
COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS FOR NOW.                                      
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 1030 AM.                           
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
835 AM PDT SUN MAY 13 2001                                                      
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE           
FORM OF DENSE CIRRUS WITH THIN SPOTS CURRENTLY HEADING FOR THE                  
LEWISTON AREA AND ANOTHER FOR THE OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS. COOL AIR                  
ADVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FURTHER STABILIZING THE AIRMASS.           
DEEP MARINE LAYER CONTINUES WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH ONSHORE/INLAND            
PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING. SKIES TO CONTINUE PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH            
THE HIGH CLOUDS AND WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS            
THE EAST. EARLY RUC/MESOETA SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAX TEMPS A BIT                
WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...HOWEVER THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF               
COOLER 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD NEGATE THAT. SUBSEQUENT RUC FORECAST TIMES           
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES                
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AND EVEN GREATER DIFFERENCES IN THE OKANOGAN              
VALLEY. JR                                                                      
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 072/046/069 -03                                                             
CQV 075/044/072 113                                                             
SPT 070/042/068 113                                                             
COE 071/046/068 -03                                                             
WWP 069/042/064 112                                                             
LWS 078/053/073 101                                                             
PUW 072/051/070 -03                                                             
EAT 074/049/071 -01                                                             
MWH 075/051/072 -01                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
315 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
FCST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT TODAY               
AND ASSOCIATED PCPN IN ILX FA.                                                  
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAD A WARM FRONT FROM SW MANITOBA-NW IOWA-SE MO.            
ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SE IA/NE             
MO EARLY THIS MORN. THIS HEAVY PRECIP WAS ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E                
AXIS...THE STRONGEST GRADIENT OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE ERN EDGE             
OF A MID LEVEL CAP. THE RUC IS FCSTG THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS TO SHIFT            
INTO WCENT IL AFT DAYBREAK. VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD                 
RESULT IN THE EXPANDED COVERAGE OF T-STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE IL            
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE RUC ALSO INDICATES THAT AS THE MORNING              
PROGRESSES THE STGST ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING FARTHER             
NW-N OF OUR REGION. SOME CELLS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL THIS MORNING            
WEST OF I-55...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...EVEN WITH THE TRAINING OF               
MODERATE SHRA/TSRA A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. XPCT THE SKY TO            
CLEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTN. INCRSG SW WINDS WILL                  
TRANSPORT QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR IN THE LOW LVLS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO             
REACH THE 80 MARK IN WCENT IL.                                                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE PLAINS IS XPCTD TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS              
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES FROM THE PAC NW AND THE SW U.S. MOVE TWD THE                 
PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE A BIT QUICKER THIS               
AFTERNOON INTO ERN IL. THE RESULT WILL BE SCTD T-STORMS WITH A                  
THREAT OF HAIL. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FNT WILL LOWER                
TEMPS A NOTCH INTO LWR/MIDDLE 70S. SCTD CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE IN             
SE IL TODAY...SOUTH OF I-70...BUT BETTER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WELL             
TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP CHC POPS AND MAINTAIN WARMER                
TEMPS ARND 80.                                                                  
THE WARM FRONT IS XPCTD TO BE OUT OF ERN IL BY ERLY EVENING. DUE TO             
STG CAPPING OVER THE REGION AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES OR                    
BOUNDARIES TO ASSIST IN BREAKING THE CAP...WILL DROP POPS IN NRN                
AREAS AND GO WITH PRTLY CLDY AND MILD.                                          
THE WARM FNT IS XPCTD TO COME TO A HALT FROM NW WI TO WRN OH LATE               
TONIGHT. AN MCS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND                 
TRACK THROUGH MICH AND OHIO OVERNIGHT. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS...AND A               
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN                 
GREAT LAKES REGION MAY CAUSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT TOWARD               
THE SW...BACK INTO NE/ERN IL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP THE               
CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST FOR LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH              
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY XPCTD TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION ON                  
WEDNESDAY...WILL NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...AND               
PUT IN A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA. WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FCST            
ALONE FOR NOW.                                                                  
...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                            
SPI TB 081/062 086/063 083 23713                                                
PIA TB 080/061 084/063 083 23713                                                
DEC EB 075/061 084/063 082 23414                                                
CMI EB 074/060 084/063 082 23424                                                
MTO EB 074/060 084/062 082 23424                                                
LWV EB 080/061 086/064 086 23323                                                
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
218 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
CURRENTLY WE ARE FOLLOWING AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED                
PRECIP THAT IS BEARING DOWN ON THE WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA             
FROM SRN ONTARIO.  THIS FEATURE WAS NOT PICKED UP TOO WELL ON EARLIER           
MODEL RUNS...POSSIBLY BECAUSE IT EMINATED FROM A RATHER SPARSE UPPER            
AIR DATA REGION IN CANADA.                                                      
THE 00Z ETA HOWEVER DOES A BETTER JOB AT SEEING THIS FEATURE AND                
INDDED IT PRODUCES A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT KJHW THIS MORNING.            
THE RUC40 PICKS THE FEATURE UP NICELTT TOO...AND USING THE 850/700MB            
RH PATTERN (WHICH IS NOT INFLUENCED BY THE DRY B.L. CONDITIONS) THE             
AREA OF MOISTURE SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. I WILL INCLUDE           
SOME CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWER FOR WRN ZONES THIS MORNING.                        
OTHERWISE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WRN/CNTRL NY REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE PLAY              
WEATHER WISE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WE ARE UNDER A RATHER                
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH BODES WELL FOR US.  TO OUR WEST A BROAD              
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS              
OPIO THROUGH MID WEEK IN REPAONSE TO A GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION            
PATTERN. THIS AREA STAYS PRETTY STATIONARY THROUGH WED.  THE REASON             
FOR THIS IS PROBABLY THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE THAT IS HOLDING OUR             
WEATHER PAATERN IN CHECK.  THE UPPER TROF OVER THE EAST EVENTUALLY              
LEADS TO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THIS LOW CIRCULATES           
MOITURE AROUND ITS BACKSIDE AND ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NY LATER TUE INTO              
WED.                                                                            
THAT WILL CERTAINLY BRING CLOUD COVER AND I WOULD NOT COUNT OUT A FEW           
RW- ACROSS FAR ERN AREAS TUE PM INTO WED.  I MAY MAKE SOME CHANGES TO           
MID WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL NY FOR THAT REASON.                                     
OTHEWRWISE...RATHER COOL NIGHTS WILL HOPEFULLY BE TEMPERED BY ANY               
CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL MITIGATE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL AS WE APPROACH           
THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.                      
??/COMMENTS CALL SOOOOON.                                                       
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
NIZIOL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1100 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                     
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATING WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR WATERLOO IOWA      
SSE TO JUST EAST OF ST LOUIS. FRONT CONTINUING TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH        
TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGESTING BNDRY TO SHIFT INTO NE PORTION        
OF CWA BY LATE THIS AFTN. MOST FAVORABLE WIND FLOW INTO BNDRY ALONG WITH        
THETAE ADV AND 850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INDICATES CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING      
OVER WISCONSIN TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDL STORMS BEGINNING      
TO FIRE JUST SOUTH OF WISCONSIN COMPLEX OVR EXTREME NRN IL WITH TRAJECTORIES    
TAKING CONVECTION SSE. BEST THREAT FOR RAINFALL WL BE ACRS THE NE HALF OF       
CWA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS A CHALLENGE ACRS THE WEST WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR       
AND WINDS VEER INTO THE SW. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...      
FCST ACRS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LOOKS ON TARGET WITH THE ONLY CHALLENGE          
BEING WHETHER TO CONTINUE LOW POPS EARLY THIS AFTN IN THAT AREA. OUT EAST...    
FCST HAS RAIN CONTINUING ON A SCATTERED BASIS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE       
THAT.                                                                           
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                     
UPDATE CONCERNS TS/SVR WX POT LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGHT                          
12Z WV LOOP AND RAOBS SHOW RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A            
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH ENTERING THE WEST                
COAST. A COUPLE OF SHRTWVS TOPPING THE RIDGE...ONE ELONGATED ONE                
STRETCHED FROM W ONTARIO TO W UPR MI (HELPING THE -SHRA OVR UPR                 
MI)...AND ANOTHER OVR SW MANITOBA. TWO MCS'S WERE ALSO PRESENT...ONE            
IN MN AND THE OTHER IN IL. AT THE SFC...A 1001MB ELONGATED LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHED FROM MANITOBA TO SD. TWO WARM FRONTS CAME             
OFF OF THIS SYSTEM...ONE IN CNTRL IA AND ANOTHER IN CNTRL ONTARIO.              
AN 850MB WARM FRONT WAS ALSO PRESENT...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL MN TO               
CTNRL WI.                                                                       
QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW FAR THE 850MB WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT                 
NORTH. 06Z/12Z ETA AND 12Z RUC ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING IT MOVING               
INTO N MN AND N WI BY 21Z...WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT MOVING TO CNTRL             
MN AND CNTRL WI. MEANWHILE...A 90 KNOT JET STREAK WL MOVE FROM LAKE             
WINNIPEG TO LK HURON BY 00Z...ALLOWING UPR MI TO GET INTO THE                   
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THIS JET. LOTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM                    
FRONT...WITH 850MB DWPTS RISING TO 10-11C IN THE W CNTYS BY 21Z                 
(0-2C E CNTYS). AT 00Z...SHOWALTER INDEX DROPS BLO 0C FROM CMX TO               
IMT. AS THE SHRTWV MOVES TO S ONTARIO BY 21Z...MORE -TSRA WL DEVELOP            
ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT OVR N MN AND SW ONTARIO. THESE STORMS                
WILL HEAD S FOLLOWING THE 850-500MB THICKNESS LINE AND CORFIDI                  
VECTORS...SPREADING INTO THE W U.P. AFTER 6 PM EDT...AND INTO THE               
CNTRL CNTYS AFTER 8 PM EDT. LOOKING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN            
WITH MID CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING OUT AND CU FORMING. TEMPS SHOULD BE             
IN THE 60S...ALTHOUGH COOLER ALONG LK MI AND E SHORE OF KEWEENAW DUE            
TO LAKE INFLUENCES. WARMEST IN GOG-ONT CNTYS WHERE SE WIND                      
DOWNSLOPES.                                                                     
AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...BEST SVR WX CHANCE COMES AFT 22Z AS K-INDEX              
RISE INTO THE 30S...CAPES ABOVE 850MB RISE ABOVE 1000J/KG...                    
850-500MB LAPSE RATES RISE ABOVE 6 C/KM AND HELICITIES GO ABOVE 400             
M2/S2. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF UPR MI IN SLIGHT RISK. HAIL                
OUTLOOK EVEN HAS IWD IN THE 10 PCNT PROB FOR HAIL 2 INCHES OR                   
LARGER. WL SEND OUT SPS HIGHLIGHTING LARGE HAIL WL BE THE THREAT.               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
AJ/KC                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
945 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH WEAKENING            
FRONT INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WY. PRESSURE RISES BEHIND              
THE FRONT MODEST. SHORTWAVE ON WATER VAPOUR OVER CENTRAL WY                     
PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT. CONCERN TODAY IS POPS.                                 
THE 12Z RUC IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST. SHORTWAVE WILL                 
TRAVERSE THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE COMBINED WITH SURFACE                 
BOUNDARY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.                 
SHEAR WEAK...HENCE NO OUT OF HAND TSRA EXPECTED. WILL BE HARD TO PIN            
DOWN EXACT LOCATION...SO WILL BLANKET CWA.                                      
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM THIS MORNING ALREADY ALONG AND AHEAD OF             
FRONT. BUT...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS                
AFTERNOON WILL CAP RISES TO WITHIN CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS.                      
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1025 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                     
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABR CWA BY LATE               
AFTN. WITH DECENT MIXING OF SW TO NW WINDS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY                 
ALONG WITH VERY WARM 85H TEMPS AND LITTLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...TEMPS             
SHOULD RISE INTO THE 90S BY LATE AFTN WITH AROUND 100 IN THE PIR                
AREA. RUC SHOWS AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE ETA IS LOWER            
WITH FORECASTED AFTN HIGHS AS IT DROPS 85H TEMPS TO AROUND 20C BY               
00Z. THE RUC HAS THEM AT AROUND 25C AT 00Z. BELIEVE THE ETA IS TOO              
COOL FOR THIS AFTN. WITH 15Z CONDITIONS...MODCURVE ALSO SUPPORTS                
TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100 BY LATE AFTN. UPDATED             
FORECAST TO MAINLY INCREASE HIGHS.                                              
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
329 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO      
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...INTO THE      
ATLANTIC...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE         
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.                                                            
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
RAIN AREA OVER NEW BRUNSWICK IS VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST. THE RUC      
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND IS SHOWING THE PRECIP MOVING INTO THE        
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE      
EAST AND SOUTH. WILL LOWER POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW SLOWLY         
DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AS         
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.                                                        
WILL STAY VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPERATURES             
TONIGHT IN LOWER 40S TO THE NORTH AND MID 40S TO THE SOUTH. ON TUESDAY MAX      
TEMPERATURES IN MID 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH.                       
COASTAL WATERS...                                                               
WILL KEEP SCA TONIGHT WITH LOW STAYING TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS.               
EXTENDED...                                                                     
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH     
THE REST OF THE WEEK.                                                           
.CAR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.                                                    
MIGNONE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW BROAD UPR RDG OVR CNTRL              
CONUS BTWN SHARP TROF ALG E CST AND LWR AMPLITUDE TROF OVR THE PAC              
NW. VERY WARM H85 TEMPS NOTED UNDER RDG IN CNTRL PLAINS WITH                    
READINGS AOA 25C IN NRN PLAINS. SHARP H85 WARM FNT ON NE EDGE OF                
THIS WARM AIRMASS FM NE ND THRU CNTRL MN AT 12Z SEPARATES THIS WARM             
AIR FM COLDER TEMPS AS LO AS -5C NR JAMES BAY. SFC WARM FNT                     
SEPARATES TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OVR SW MN FM TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S            
OVR CWA. VERY STEEP H85-5 LAPSE RATES N OF H85 WARM FNT WITH H5                 
THERMAL TROF (-16C AT MPX VS -12 AT INL) SUPPORTED ELEVATED MCS                 
DVLPMNT LAST NGT FM NRN MN TO WI...WITH NMRS SVR HAIL RPRTS UNDER               
THIS CNVCTN. BAND OF -SHRA THAT IMPACTED CWA ON NRN FRINGE OF THIS              
COMPLEX HAS WEAKENED...BUT LATEST 88D AND SFC OBS SHOW SOME                     
SPRINKLES CONTG NR WI BORDER. ECNTRL CWA PSUNNY. A SHRTWV NOTED                 
ROUNDING TOP OF RDG NR LK WINNIPEG WITH COMMA TAIL CLD NOTED NR MN-             
CAN BORDER. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW ENTERING THE WRN DAKOTAS...BUT STRG              
CAPPING HERE LIMITING SHRA COVG.                                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TDAY                
INTO WED WITH MAIN FOCUS ON SVR THREAT TNGT WITH ELEVATED TSRA OVR              
MAINLY SW BORDER ZNS.                                                           
ETA SHOWS SHRTWV NOW TRAVERSING RDG IN NRN PLAINS CROSSING CREST OF             
RDG AND DROPPING SEWD TOWARD WRN LK SUP 00Z-03Z WITH H5 PVA/H7-3                
QVECTOR CNVGC DVLPG AS H85 WARM FNT APRCHS IWD. AVN/NGM IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT WITH SHRTWV TIMING...BUT QUITE A BIT WEAKER. 15Z RUC SHOWS            
SHRTWV NEVER ROUNDING UPR RDG. BASED ON SAT DEPICTION OF SHRTWV                 
INTENSITY...WL TREND IN FAVOR OF STRGR ETA SHRTWV. SHRTWV DYNAMICS              
PHASE WITH AXIS OF HIER H85 DWPT (TO 12C) AND SSI (TO -4C) ADVCTN IN            
H85 LLJ POINTING TOWARD IWD. ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY HILY CAPPED IN                
H85-7 LYR PER ETA F12 SDNG FOR IWD WITH CAPE 750 J/KG/NEGATIVE AREA             
NR -180 J/KG LIFTED FM MU H85 WITH HI WBZ ARND 12.3K FT. BUT ARRIVAL            
OF UPR DYNAMICS AND STRG THETA-E ADVCTN AT H85 BY 03Z INCRS CAPE TO             
1125 J/KG/CUT NEGATIVE AREA TO -15 J/KG AT IWD AS LIFTED FM MU H875             
WITH WBZ DROPPING TO 11.7K FT. XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO DVLP AHD OF UPR                
FORCG AND PROGRESS SEWD ALG FCST H85-3 THKNS GRADIENT/CORFIDI                   
VECTORS/H7 ISOTHERMS. SINCE TSRA WL BE ELEVATED ABV LLVL STABLE LYR             
WELL AHD OF SFC WARM FNT...SVR THREAT FM TSRA WL BE LARGE HAIL. MAIN            
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR HAIL THREAT WL BE MODEST H7-5 LAPSE RATES IN            
6.5-7.0 C/KM RANGE... ALTHOUGH IMPRESSIVE VEERING OF WND WITH HGT               
ENHANCING UPDRAFTS MIGHT COMPENSATE A BIT FOR WEAK LAPSE RATES.                 
LAPSE RATES DCRS EVEN FURTHER TO E WITH LTL IF ANY CAPE EVIDENT E OF            
MQT-ESC EVEN WHEN PARCELS LIFTED FM MU LYR. WL HIT TSRA/LARGE HAIL              
THREAT HARDEST ALG WI BORDER. AS SHRTWV SHIFTS TO THE S OVRNGT AND              
H85 WND FIELDS WEAKEN...XPCT ONGOING CNVCTN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY            
AND COVG NW TO SE. BUT LINGERING FCST H4-2 DVGC AHD OF SHRTWV NOW               
ENTERING DAKOTAS AND PROGGED THRU NCNTRL MN WL KEEP CONTG SHRA                  
THREAT EVERYWHERE. ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE S...COPIOUS              
LLVL MSTR WL REMAIN. SO WL MAINTAIN FOG FCST AND MIN TEMPS NO LWR               
THAN 55 ACRS THE FAR W. A BIT DRIER OVR THE E...SO 45 TO 50 THERE.              
AVN MUCH STRGR WITH APRCHG SHRTWV FM MN TMRW AND INTERACTS WITH WARM            
FNT TO GENERATE MUCH MORE PCPN OVR CWA THAN ETA/NGM...AVN MOS SHOWS             
CATEGORICAL POPS WHILE FWC JUST CHCY. HARD TO PICK A PREFERRED MODEL            
ATTM...BUT BASED ON APPEARANCE OF SHRTWV ON SAT IMAGERY AND PRESENCE            
OF WARM FNT WL TEND TOWARD THE WETTER AVN GUIDANCE AND BUMP FCST                
POPS UP TO LIKELY BUT NOT CATEGORICAL AS H85 WND FIELD/MSTR ADVCTN              
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND MORE LIKE ETA. WL ALSO RETAIN MENTION OF            
THUNDER WITH AVN SHOWING SSI AS LO AS -5C OVR SRN TIER. WITH MORE               
CLD XPCTD THAN SUGD BY NGM...WL TEND TOWARD LWR MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX.           
MODELS THEN SHOW A BRK LATE TUE BTWN THIS SHRTWV AND NXT SYS RIDING             
OUT OF PAC NW TROF TOWARD WRN LKS. XPCT A PD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL             
WX IN BTWN THESE SHRTWVS LATE TUE AFTN-TUE NGT OVR THE W AND TUE                
EVNG-EARLY WED OVR THE E. AVN/ETA TIMING NRLY CONSISTENT ON ARRIVAL             
OF SHRTWV/DYNAMICS LATE TUE NGT OVR THE W HALF WITH SYS PROGRESSING             
THRU THE ERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY. AXIS OF H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H4-2              
DVGC/SSI 0 TO -4C IN EXIT RGN OF APRCHG 100KT H3 UPR JET INTERACTION            
WITH COLD FNT/PW AXIS ARND 1.5 INCHES SUGS MENTION OF TSRA/                     
CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED...WITH POPS HIER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.                  
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRG SHRTWV EMERGING FM               
FAST FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF GLFAK LO MOVG INTO PAC NW ON THU WITH BLDG            
HGTS OVR THE GRT LKS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS. SINCE MRF/CANADIAN                 
ENSEMBLES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO WITH MOST MRF ENSEMBLES              
SHOWING EVEN HIER HGTS THAN OPERATIONAL MODEL...WL MAINTAIN DRY FCST            
FOR THU WITH INCRSG CLDS OVR THE W DURG THE AFTN. WL ALSO GO HIER               
FOR TEMPS OVR THE INLAND W THAN INDICATED BY MEX GUIDANCE BECAUSE               
H85 TEMPS...FCST BY OPERATIONAL MRF 13C AT IWD...SHUD ALSO BE HIER              
THAN INDICATED. STRG SHRTWV ENTERING PAC NW WL BEAT DOWN RDG IN NRN             
PLAINS AS IT MOVES TOWARD NW LKS ON FRI. OPERATIONAL MODELS IN                  
GENERAL SHOW SHRTWV MOVG QUICKLY THRU WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CAD DVLPG            
OVR CWA ON SAT...BUT CONCERNED THAT MAJORITY OF MRF/CANADIAN                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICTING A SLOWER UPR TROF WITH MORE PERSISTENT HI            
HGTS OVR THE LKS. WL THUS MAINTAIN CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FRI INTO SAT AS             
IN GOING FCST WITH ASSUMPTION THAT COLD FROPA WL BE SLOWER. FCST                
TEMPS HIER THAN MEX GUIDANCE. MRF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES MORE SUPPORTIVE            
OF TROFFING IN GRT LKS FOR SUN/MON AS UPR HGTS RISE OFF THE W CST               
AND OVR WRN CAN. BUT SHRTWVS INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS MOVG               
OVR BLDG WRN HGTS AND DOWN TOWARD GRT LKS SUG LINGERING SHRA CHCS               
NXT SUN/MON WITH COOLER TEMPS.                                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX/SPC.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
159 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2001                                                      
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT               
AND TUESDAY...                                                                  
MODELS SIMILAR AT 5H WITH NGM BECOMING TOO PROGRESSIVE IN LATER PDS             
WHILE ETA FURTHER S WITH SHRT WV MOVING THRU TUE NIGHT. AT THE                  
SFC...RUC CLOSEST TO REALITY WITH SFC PRES AND DEWPOINT                         
FIELDS...ALTHOUGH AVN NOT FAR OFF. CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN                 
STILL PREVAILING OUT EAST...PREFER SLOWER AN SOLUTIONS. WL FOLLOW               
AVN THIS PACKAGE.                                                               
.SHORT TERM...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER MOST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY            
AND POINTS WEST WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND THIS AFTN BEHIND            
SFC TROF PER LATEST SFC ANALYSIS. THIS TROF TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E                
BRINGING THIS AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO THE VALLEY BY 0Z                
THEN WASHING OUT DURING THE EVE OVER NW MN. STABILITY INDICES                   
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND EVE HOWEVER 7H TEMPS TO                  
REMAIN QUITE WARM WHILE 850 MB RH LACKING. BEST CHC FOR TSTM                    
ACTIVITY TO THUS BE OVER NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS EAST WHERE             
7H TEMPS COOL THIS EVENING...WITH REMAINDER OF ZONES STAYING CAPPED.            
WL KEEP MENTION IN DVL REGION FOR THE EVENING...BUT THIS AREA                   
STABILIZES RAPIDLY BY 6Z. TEMPS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF             
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.                                                 
.LONG TERM...REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT            
AHEAD OF 5H SHRT WV TO REESTABLISH SRLY FLOW ON TUE...WITH DRIER AIR            
RETREATING BACK W. AS SYSTEM MOVES INTO S CENTRAL CANADA BY 0Z WED              
COOL FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THEN. 7H TEMPS FALL               
DURING THE DAY...THUS SITUATION MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY                
ACROOS ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING. PCPN TO             
LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS OVER THE VALLEY AND POINTS E BEFORE                   
QUICKLY ENDING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN.               
WED TO STAY DRY WITH TEMPS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL BUT DROPPING TO                 
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WED.                                                
.EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN...AS                
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL ENVELOPE NORTHERN PLAINS BY                
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO HELP FLATTEN RIDGE OVER              
CENTRAL US ON THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH REGION.                
THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION.               
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS WILL BE THE RULE ON FRIDAY...WITH                
SOME SHOWERS AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. ON SAT/SUN...CYCLONIC FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AS MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH...SO EXPECT DRY             
SEASONAL WEATHER. ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS BUILD AGAIN WITH WARMER AIR               
MAKING IT/S WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                       
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
DJK/RJT                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd