AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1007 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                     
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
MID CLOUDS HAVE PULLED OUT OF SDF AND BWG...BUT ALTOCUMULUS STILL               
HANGING IN ERN CWA. AT 13Z LEX IS STILL 080 OVC. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT           
ILN AND DTX DENOTED NORTH TO NELY FLOW IN THE 0-1KM LAYER WITH                  
BACKING WINDS. HAND ANALYSIS AT H8 SHOWS PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AT             
H8...AND WITH A TRIGGER TEMP OF 74...CU SHOULD BE FORMING AHEAD OF              
GIANT COLD CLOUD STREETS OF CU/SC OVER WESTERN NY THROUGH ONTARIO               
PROVINCE INTO MICHIGAN.                                                         
THE RUC80 HAS A NORTH FLOW AT H8 WHICH WILL ALLOW CU TO DRIFT SWD               
INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE DURING THE AFTN. WITH H5 TROUGH SWINGING               
THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LLVL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP PARTLY               
SUNNY WORDING IN...BUT WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER GRIDS...& TWEAK            
THE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ISSUE NEW ZFPS.                   
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.KY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
JDG/SEE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
750 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...                                          
MUCH QUIETER NIGHT THAN PAST COUPLE...THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY QUIET.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW SPINNING ALONG THE                     
PACIFIC COAST...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST FLOW                 
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING FROM                     
CENTRAL MT TOWARD SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS FEATURE HAS                  
HELPED TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/TS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.               
HOWEVER...WARM LAYER AROUND 400MB HAS KEPT EVERYTHING LOW-TOPPED                
AND RELATIVELY BENIGN TO THIS POINT. IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING WILL               
WORK INTO THE WEST/SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY                
MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS AREA AFTER 06Z. FURTHER EAST...THERE IS                 
MORE INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG YET PER LAPS/RUC). THE NAM AND                 
RUC APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET (NEAR                
750MB) LIFTING OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND                    
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDEED SHOWS BACKING OF 750MB WINDS AND                     
CONVERGENCE BEGINNING TO SET UP TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS. WITH                   
PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE IN PLACE...WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS GOING                   
EVERYWHERE THIS EVENING...AND IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT (WHERE                 
FOCUS OF LLJ SHOULD BE AFTER 06Z). WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW               
THIS DEVELOPS...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS TRYING TO GET                
GOING IN NORTHEAST WYOMING RIGHT NOW.                                           
SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER MUCH OF THE                  
AREA EAST OF THE MTS ON SUNDAY. DRY FCST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS ALL BUT              
THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS GOOD...WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SOME CONVECTION                
EVERYWHERE BY SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS NEXT WAVE COMES THROUGH.                  
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...                           
MODERATE OMEGA BLOCK STILL LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE                      
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN                      
AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THEN SOME DISAGREEMENT                        
BECOMES APPARENT WITH THE HANDLING OF UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS                  
MOVING INTO WESTERN CANADA. THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORT-WAVES                     
KNOCKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND RELEASING THE BLOCK ALLOWING FOR MORE               
WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION. THE GFS MODEL IS NOW SHOWING THE SHORT-               
WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL RETURN TO THE AREA                
EVEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE HAS THIS                  
HANDLED WELL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION                     
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. QUESTIONS TO BE ADDRESSED BY FUTURE                
SHIFTS WILL INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT WIND DIFFERENCES DUE TO THE TIMING              
OF THE COLD FRONTAL/TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE              
NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL               
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL...BUT WITH VERY WARM                
TEMPERATURES SHOWING UP IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST                
DRY UNTIL WE CAN DETERMINE MORE SPECIFICS ABOUT POTENTIAL CAPPING               
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY                
THROUGH THE PERIOD SO AS NOT TO DEVIATE FROM THE RANGE OF THE                   
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. CARPENTER                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL ROUTES DURING THE                     
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM KSHR-KBIL-KBTM BUT                 
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE              
POSSIBLE FROM KBIL-KBHK THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT DO                 
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES REDUCED              
TO MVFR CONDITIONS. HOOLEY                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 053/081 058/086 061/092 059/091 057/085 053/082 052/084                     
    20/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    20/U    00/B                        
LVM 043/076 048/084 050/087 052/087 050/080 047/077 047/082                     
    22/T    23/T    32/T    23/T    22/T    22/T    00/B                        
HDN 057/084 059/087 062/095 062/094 058/089 053/085 055/087                     
    20/B    22/T    20/B    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U                        
MLS 059/083 059/090 063/095 063/095 059/089 054/084 057/087                     
    20/U    11/B    20/B    02/T    22/T    10/U    00/U                        
4BQ 059/086 059/093 062/094 061/096 058/089 055/086 056/088                     
    20/B    22/T    20/B    02/T    22/T    10/B    00/U                        
BHK 058/080 057/086 061/090 060/093 057/086 053/081 052/084                     
    20/U    12/T    20/B    02/T    22/T    10/U    00/U                        
SHR 053/087 056/090 058/091 055/091 052/086 050/082 049/087                     
    21/B    22/T    21/U    02/T    22/T    20/U    00/U                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1018 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
ADJACENT MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...                     
ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT CHS ATM PROFILE. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND RUC               
INDICATE THE UPPER S/W TROF OVER EASTERN GA-SOUTHERN SC AT THE                  
MOMENT. MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL TAKE IT ACROSS COASTAL ILM CWA            
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS AROUND MIDDAY...AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY            
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL RE-ALIGN POPS...AND CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE             
COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH ISOLATED TSRA INLAND. CLOUD DECK AT THE                 
MOMENT LIMITING INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY BUT SHULD DISSIPATE                  
AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAYS TIME FRAME. SCT TO BKN                   
DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP IN ITS PLACE. WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY.                    
CURRENT MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS ON THE BALL.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE TWO CORMP BUOYS EXTENDING OFFSHORE FROM WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH ARE              
REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT...WHILE THE                   
CARO-COOPS BUOY OFF SUNSET BEACH IS REPORTING MORE EAST-NORTHEAST               
WINDS WITH SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 10 KT. AS A RESULT...PLAN TO                     
INITIALIZE THE FORECAST WITH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH                   
CAROLINA WATERS...AND EAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS               
WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A WAVE             
OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST COMBINED                
WITH INLAND HEATING/SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER            
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ACROSS ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WAVEWATCH III            
SEAS APPEAR A BIT HIGH...AND WILL KEEP THE CURRENTLY FORECAST SEAS              
OF 2-3 FT NORTH AND 1-2 FT SOUTH.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS               
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO AS LOW AS            
6 MILES IN HAZE AT BOTH KMYR AND KCRE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL              
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CEILINGS               
AND VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN CONVECTION THIS                  
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DCH                                                                
MARINE...JAQ                                                                    
AVIATION...JAQ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
855 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                      
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA             
WITH NIL PRESSURE RISES/FALLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH FEATURE. LATEST               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED 250MB 120 JET MAX PUNCHING NORTHEAST INTO            
SASK PROVINCE WITH ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF           
JET OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE             
CONDITIONS WITH ML CAPES 2000-3000 J/KG...SHOWALTERS -7 AND LI'S -8             
TO -10 IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY.                                                 
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION GETS GOING OVER THE           
NORTHERN PORTION OF CWFA OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG CAP IN            
PLACE OVER AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS GREATER +12C WITH NO PROJECTED MAJOR           
EROSION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS FIRING             
OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WHERE CAP IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. WITH UPPER LEVEL          
DYNAMICS LACKING SURFACE CONVERGENCE/850MB WAA/STRONG LOW LEVEL JET             
WILL HAVE TO BE THE MAIN TRIGGER TO GET CONVECTION GOING. TOUGH CALL            
AT THIS TIME WHETHER THIS WILL MATERIALIZE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR             
BEFORE MAKING ANY REVISIONS TO OVERNIGHT ZONES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 9 PM) FOR ALL ND                   
     COUNTIES.                                                                  
MN...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL MN COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY (UNTIL 9             
     PM) FOR ALL MN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE RED RIVER.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ALREADY ISSUED MORNING UPDATE TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN THE                    
FORECAST AND ALSO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. KMVX WSR88D SHOWING                    
30-40KTS IN THE LOWEST GATES THIS MORNING AND THE KBIS 12Z SOUNDING             
ALSO HAD SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL WINDS. ALSO TOOK AN URGENT PILOT               
REPORT ABOUT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KGFK. 12Z RUC/NAM SHOWING                  
35-40KTS AT 850 MB THRU THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH GOOD SFC PRESSURE              
GRADIENT. WATCHED OBS FROM KBIS/KMOT YESTERDAY...AND THEY PUSHED                
INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AN OB OR TWO. KIND OF EXPECTING THE SAME             
SCENARIO TODAY...NOT A LOT OF HIGH GUSTS...BUT SOME SUSTAINED WIND              
SPEEDS ABOVE 30 MPH. LIKELY ONE OF THOSE MARGINAL CASES...BUT CLOSE             
ENOUGH. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND MADE NO CHANGES.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL ND COUNTIES.                      
MN...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL MN COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL              
     MN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE RED RIVER.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GODON                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH             
OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS.  18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH                 
ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER              
S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE             
NIGHT.  IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS             
HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.                      
23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG              
EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO.  THIS IS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST                 
LOCATIONS TNGT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES               
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING SOON AFTERWARD. SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER            
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS                     
RECEIVING SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH              
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE               
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  FOR THE            
MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY              
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY                     
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF               
THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.  THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE               
WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY            
TOWARDS THE CWA.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL AIR ALOFT.             
THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH                
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SO...THE ONLY CHANCES OF               
PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE AFTERNOON LEFTOVERS.                                  
PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE            
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT SOME AREAS.                           
PLAYED COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL...AND               
SOUTH SECTIONS. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS                
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.                               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...29                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY                  
NIGHT AS OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN AND AMPLITUDE TO RIDGE LESSEN.                  
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS PLACING A LARGE RIDGE POSITION OVER THE MIDWEST               
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED ALONG WEST COAST. SURFACE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COOLER PACIFIC AIR MASS EXTENDS FROM              
NWRN ND TO KRAP IN SD. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE              
NORTH IN A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE                   
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS OF 15C                   
DEWPOINTS AT 850MB PLANTED IN-SITU WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE OF 22C+.              
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING 3500J/KG MLCAPE IN THIS REGION AHEAD OF               
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 18Z.                                                    
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE                   
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAYS AND               
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 4-5C SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN           
CLOUD FREE. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY WILL           
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH A SLIGHT CLOUD INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING           
FRONT.                                                                          
LATEST EC/GFS/DEV RUC13/NAM SOLUTIONS ARE ALL GROUPED TOGETHER ON A             
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT MONDAY MOVING                   
TO NEAR KDBQ BY 12Z TUE. 12Z NAM/ETA IS A BIT DIFFERENT AS IT                   
CREATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MN...TRIGGERED ON THE FRONT AND                
ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE MCS SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA                      
MONDAY IN THE 12Z/18Z NAM SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME THE MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE IN ERN SD SUNDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO SUPPORT AN MCS            
SHIFTING SOUTH INTO IA/NEB EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM WANTS TO SHIFT AND             
INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTO THE ARX FORECAST AREA WITH                 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 70F+ PRE-FRONTALLY. THESE DEWPOINTS SEEM TOO               
HIGH BASED ON NAM RECENT BIAS AND CURRENT VERIFICATION IN THE                   
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER..ITS FRONT...DEFINED BY ANOTHER WIND SHIFT AND                 
DEWPOINT DECREASE REFLECTING THE AIR MASS CHANGE IS SIMILAR TO THE              
OTHER MODEL TIMING. BOTTOM LINE IS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR ALOFT               
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DECAY OF THE MCS IF IT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE AREA           
WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF WETTING RAIN ON THE FRONT OVERNIGHT MONDAY              
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
WITH CURRENT TIMING...PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY IS WEAKER OVERNIGHT               
/MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG/ AND MLCIN WILL BE INCREASING WITH SURFACE              
TEMPERATURES COOLING /50-100 J/KG/. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN             
THE FRONTAL ZONE IS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY /WRLY/ AND SUPPORTS NO             
ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF THE SURFACE INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE                    
CONVECTIVE THREAT AND GENERATION. THEREFORE...GRIDS WILL HAVE                   
INCREASED TIMING DETAIL BUT CONFIDENCE KEEPS THE WETTING RAIN CHANCES           
STILL NEAR 30 PERCENT. SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED WITH THIS                  
FRONTAL TIMING...BUT NAM TIMING MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A BIT            
OF COLD POOL WIND THREAT IF IT VERIFIES.                                        
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
INTENSITY AND WAVELENGTH OF THE OMEGA BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA                  
DECREASES DURING THIS DAY4-7 PERIOD WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING A              
BIT MORE VULNERABLE TO THE WESTERLIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES                    
DRAGGING IN FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE               
SIMILAR WITH A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SMALL CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN             
WITH DRIER AIR ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW               
INCREASES AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. A NUMBER            
OF IMPULSES MAY DRAG THROUGH THE NORTHERN STATES BUT THE MODELS                 
DISAGREE ON THESE DETAILS. OVERALL IT WILL BE A WARM PERIOD WITH                
CHANCES OF RAIN THU/FRI. AS THESE DAYS APPROACH...MORE DETAILS CAN              
BE EXTRACTED ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE THREATS.                  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM THU-SAT OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                        
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
245 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID-UPPER            
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE NERN GOMEX...             
AS SEEN ON WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. VORT ENERGY DIVING S-SSW INTO THE                
BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE FEATURE IS CAUSING IT TO ELONGATE...WHICH IS            
ENHANCING AN H25 JETMAX (80KT+) ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD. RUC H25 ANLYS           
FIELDS SHOW DIVG ASCD WITH THE TAIL OF THE RR QUAD OF THE JET HAS               
BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SERN ATLC SEABOAD SWD INTO FL AND            
CONTINUING SWWD ACROSS CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN. AT THE SFC...A RATHER             
DIFFUSE (TD) FRONTAL BDRY EXTENDS FROM DESTIN TO ST. SIMONS ISLAND              
WITH THE SFC RIDGE TO THE SOTUH BECOMING ILL-DEFINED. OVER THE LAST             
FEW HRS...LOCAL 88D MOSAIC HAS SHOWED NEW CONVECTION BREAKING OUT               
OVER THE NATRUE COAST...MOVING EWD AT A DECENT CLIP TWD THE NRN CWA.            
TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE VORT              
CENTER CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD ACROSS GA REACHING THE FL/GA BORDER               
AREA THEN SPREADING INTO NORTH FL WHILST ELONGATING LATE THIS AFTN.             
THE UPPER JET POSN SEEMS TO FAVOR WEAK FORCED ASCENT OVER CTRL FL...            
AND STRONGER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS INDICATE MEAN PWAT A                 
TENTH OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 1.5" @18Z...WITH HIGHER VALUES AS ONE                
HEADS INTO SOUTH FL. H50 TEMPS SHOW LTL CHG (-8C TO -9C) FROM                   
SAT...AT LEAST THIS FAR SOUTH ACROSS ECFL.                                      
TAKING INTO ACCT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...HAVE PUT IN SOME EARLY                  
MORNING POPS (SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS) ACROSS THE NRN CWA 12Z-15Z...THEN              
PAINTED SCT EVRYWHERE FROM 15Z ONWARD. IN SPITE OF THE CURRENT 88D              
TRENDS...STILL FEEL THAT SRN CWA SHOULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF                 
RAINFALL TODAY. CURRENT GRIDDED POPS OF 40 NORTH-60 SOUTH SPLIT THE             
DIFF SOMEHWHAT BTWN THE LOWER MAV (30) AND HIGHER MET (50-60). GIVEN            
THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...AM TEMPTED TO RAISE THE NORTH TO 50...AND MAY            
DO SO SHOULD CURRENT SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUE UNABATED TWD OUR NRN CWA.           
MON-WED...AS PER THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE...NAM IS THE PREFERRED                 
MODEL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SUBSEQUENT             
SPURIOUS LOW DEVELOPMENT EXHIBITED BY THE GFS. UPPER LOW ACROSS THE             
CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. ACTIVE JET              
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HELP TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE                      
NORTHWARD. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY            
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR TO            
THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LIFT              
NORTHWARD BY MIDWEEK...PLACING THE CWA IN 2.2+ INCH PWAT AIR. BOTTOM            
LINE IS THAT EARLY-MID WEEK WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN                       
SUN...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                                          
THU-SAT...ANOMALOUS TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE REPLACED            
BY A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. WESTERN ATLANTIC            
RIDGE LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE AND WITH                     
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...POPS NEAR CLIMO SEEM REASONABLE. SOMETHING TO             
ALSO CONSIDER IS THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS A CUTOFF LOW WILL PINCH OFF              
FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A            
CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NON-HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE             
PERIOD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL               
SURGES IN THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...BACKED OFF QUITE A BIT ON AREAS OF IFR FOG/STRATUS IN               
THE 06Z TAFS FROM PREV FCST. LOOKS TO BE SCT TO NMRS IFR TSRA A GOOD            
CHUNK OF THE DAY WITH LCLLY STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  88  71  88  73 /  40  20  40  20                                           
MCO  91  72  89  72 /  40  30  40  20                                           
MLB  88  73  88  72 /  40  30  50  30                                           
VRB  89  73  87  72 /  50  30  60  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI                                                          
LONG TERM....HIRSCH                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
217 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CLOUDS/HIGH TEMPERATURES                
THROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.                
SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER FLOW. UPPER TROUGH ALONG               
WEST COAST HAS SUNK SOUTH AND WEST FROM YESTERDAYS POSITION WHILE               
EASTERN UPPER LOW HAS DUG TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...UPPER RIDGE HAS             
AMPLIFIED OVER US WITH SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING                 
SURGE OF VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS                
DRY AIR GOES CLEAR DOWN INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.                            
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH WHAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE           
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS DECIDES TO DO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER                
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO YESTERDAY WHERE THERE WAS SOME 700 TO 500 MB             
MOISTURE. FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY.              
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DOING ABOUT THE SAME WITH GFS DOING A LITTLE              
BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...ALL MODELS LOOK REASONABLY INITIALIZED.                 
HOWEVER...THE UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE NAM WAS           
WAS TOO HIGH ON HEIGHTS OVER US. THE ONE PLACE THAT THE GFS WAS DOING           
BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS ON THE PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE               
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALL THREE MODELS DID NOT HAVE RIDGE BROAD              
ENOUGH AND HIGH ENOUGH HEIGHTS TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGELINE.                    
MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE DRY AIR THAT IS ABOVE 700 MB QUITE RIGHT                 
EITHER. IT SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER           
WITH THIS. ALSO THE UKMET/GFS WERE DOING BETTER ON 700 MB                       
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH THEY WERE TOO WARM AT DEN AND SLIGHTLY TOO COOL           
OVER US. THE NAM WAS DOING BETTER ON THE DEWPOINTS. AT LOW LEVELS...            
THE NAM/UKMET LOOKED TO BE DOING THE BEST ON PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD.           
NAM WAS HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS...AND MAYBE A TAD TOO HIGH BUT WAS                  
BETTER. THE RUC40 WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE NAM DEWPOINTS EARLY                
ON. IN GENERAL MODELS INITIALIZED TOO WARM ON LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.           
NAM/GFS TENDED TO DO BETTER OVER OUR AREA WITH THE NAM DOING BETTER             
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE SOURCE REGION OF OUR AIR IS. WILL TEND TO               
BLEND THE GFS/UKMET/NAM WITH GFS/UKMET BETTER AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...            
THE UKMET/NAM ON WIND FIELDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMPERATURES...AND              
THE GFS/UKMET ON PRECIPITATION.                                                 
TODAY/TONIGHT...NAM VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS              
AND STRATUS FIELD. IT WAS ALSO COOLER ON TEMPERATURES AT MOST                   
LOCATIONS. WHEN THE STRATUS BREAKS WILL AGAIN BE KEY TO                         
TEMPERATURES. NAM/RUC WANT TO BREAK THE CLOUDS BY 18Z WHICH IS WHAT             
THEY DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH              
IT BEING MORE MOIST AT THE BOTTOM...AND ABOUT THE SAME AT 700 MB.               
COMPARING THE GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS TO THE LBF/DDC SOUNDINGS WOULD                  
INDICATE THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE THE INVERSION ALOFT STRONG ENOUGH WITH           
THE NAM THE WORST. GFS/NAM WANT TO DECREASE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES              
THROUGH THE DAY...AND ALSO GET RID OF THE INVERSION AS WELL.                    
CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THINK THAT             
IS IN ERROR AND LIKE THE UKMET KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ABOUT             
THE SAME. EVEN IF THE CLOUDS BREAK EARLIER...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND                 
SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT ALLOW A BIG WARMUP EVEN WITH VERY MILD                   
READINGS AS A RESULT OF THE CLOUD COVER. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE AND              
THE MODELS WARM INITIAL ANALYSIS...WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE AND HAVE              
ALREADY COLLABORATED THAT.                                                      
NAM/RUC13 NOT AS EXCITED TONIGHT ABOUT STRATUS AND ARE LOWER ON                 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. CONSIDERING SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN PLACE...             
WILL GO FOR CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT. PLAN ON NEAR TO                 
ABOVE GUIDANCE.                                                                 
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE WILL HAVE STRATUS AROUND DURING THE               
MORNING. IF THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AS I THINK THERE WILL BE...THEN                
THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE WARMED UP. ONE DIFFERENCE ON MONDAY            
WILL BE THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER US WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER                    
TEMPERATURES. THINK THE COOLING ALOFT BY THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE             
NAM IS NOT REASONABLE. SURFACES WILL ALSO NOT ALLOW A BIG WARMUP                
ALTHOUGH SHOULD START FAIRLY WARM. IF FULL SUNSHINE IS REALIZED                 
THEN THE MAV TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE BUT THINK THEY ARE TOO WARM.            
PLAN ON GOING BELOW GUIDANCE. NAM WANTS TO BRING PRECIPITATION...               
ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS IS ERROR SINCE BOUNDARY               
SHOULD NOT BE AS FAR SOUTH AS IT SAYS IT WILL BE. PLUS WILL HAVE                
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...NAM COOLS TEMPERATURES/WEAKENS CAP...             
AND VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB PER THE GFS/UKMET. HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD              
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                                        
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE DAY THAT WILL PROBABLY WARM UP...           
MAYBE. RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD AND WILL HAVE A WARM START. LOOK              
TO HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THIS DAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT            
GET ANY HELP WITH THE WIND FIELD THROUGH MID LEVELS. PLAN ON GOING              
BELOW THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR THIS DAY. MILD MINS ONCE AGAIN IN             
STORE FOR THE NIGHT.                                                            
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM TEMPS TO SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL MON                  
INTO TUE.                                                                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER                
LEVEL RDG FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO BTWN TROFS OVER              
THE E COAST AND PAC NW. AT THE SFC...SRLY FLOW HAS INCREASED BTWN A             
RDG FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN LWR MI AND A FRONT/TROF FROM CNTRL                 
MANITOBA TO NW SD. IR LOOP SHOWED MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER LK                    
SUPERIOR AND UPR MI WITH AN AREAS OF SC TO THE EAST...VCNTY                     
KANJ/KCIU.                                                                      
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WAA ON INCREASING SRLY                      
WINDS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ACRS UPR MI. TEMPS...ABOVE                   
GUIDANCE VALUES...INTO LOWER TO MID 80S LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON 850              
MB TEMPS FCST NEAR 15C-16C AND UPSTREAM MAX READINGS OVER SRN MN                
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WHERE MIXING TO 800 MB OCCURRED. 950 MB S               
WINDS OF ONLY 10-15 KTS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH            
TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TO MOVE JUST ONSHORE OVER N CNTRL UPR             
MI WITH TEMPS SLIPPING INTO THE 70S. MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL              
OCCUR NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN EAST OF KESC WHERE WHERE READINGS IN THE               
UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED.                                                         
TONIGHT...TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL BRING INCREASING SW WINDS WITH               
BNDRY LAYER WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY                
WARM...ESPECIALLY WHERE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS ALONG LAKE               
SUPERIOR. EXPECT ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS VCNTY OF THE LOW LEVEL                   
THETA-E RDG REMAINS DRAPED FROM THE PLAINS INTO NW ONTARIO WILL                 
REMAIN NW OF UPPER MI BUT MAY GRAZE NRN LK SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AS             
SHRTWV ENERGY FROM THE NRN PLAINS HELPS TO FLATTEN THE RDG.                     
MON...MODELS HAVE CONVERGED WITH TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY FASTER                   
MOVEMENT OF A PREFRONTAL TROF INTO UPPER MI. WHILE MORE CAPPED LOOK             
OF GFS SOUNDINGS STILL SEEMS MORE REALISTIC...EXPECT THAT WEAK                  
SHRTWVS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAKS TO              
THE NORTH AND OUTFLOW OR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT            
FOR                                                                             
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AND OVER CNTRL UPPER MI               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH AND TEMPS CLIMB              
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AS EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER              
TO MID 60S WOULD STILL PUSH CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG                 
RANGE. MID LEVEL WINDS TO NEAR 40 KTS WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL                
SHEAR AND 700-600 DRY LAYER WOULD FAVOR MAINLY STRONG WIND THREAT AS            
FREEZING LEVEL IS VERY HIGH AOA 15K FT. LOWER END POPS STILL ARE ON             
TRACK GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND                   
MARGINAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION.                                        
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS SLOWER                   
FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND SLOWER DEPARTURE OF PCPN...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES               
WILL LINGER OVER SRN UPR MI...AT LEAST THROUGH TUE MORNING.                     
DEVELOPING NRLY FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR INTO N UPR             
MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SHORE...WITH TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER            
60S AND LOWER 70S.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
338 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN              
TODAY. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE                 
MOUNTAIN ZONES. RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE CWA               
DRY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT               
AROUND THE 80 MARK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
STRONG WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BE THE                
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING               
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE            
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LOW            
LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD.                
THE KICKER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE               
OF THE UPPER HIGH...TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID             
ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT                 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER                 
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT ONLY             
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE                
FRONT MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE                 
SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL COLD BIAS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH             
OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT            
BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN.  LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY             
12Z.  PRETTY MUCH SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR           
WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.  CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN              
15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE             
NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z.                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH             
OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS.  18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH                 
ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER              
S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE             
NIGHT.  IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS             
HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.                      
23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG              
EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO.  THIS IS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST                 
LOCATIONS TNGT.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  FOR THE            
MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY              
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY                     
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF               
THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.  THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE               
WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY            
TOWARDS THE CWA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JS                                                                 
LONG TERM...JMV                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE      
REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT BKW TO LIFR       
CONDITIONS AT EKN.  LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY 12Z.  PRETTY MUCH       
SAME SENERIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM 
TO OUR SOUTH.  CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN 15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS    
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z.      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH             
OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS.  18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH                 
ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER              
S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE             
NIGHT.  IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS             
HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.                      
23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG              
EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO.  THIS IS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST                 
LOCATIONS TNGT.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 713 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE SHOWERS OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS THE SUN GOES               
DOWN...WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING SOON AFTERWARD. SOME LATE NIGHT RIVER            
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY...WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS                     
RECEIVING SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH              
THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE               
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  FOR THE            
MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY              
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY                     
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF               
THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.  THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE               
WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY            
TOWARDS THE CWA.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 245 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO BRING DRY AND COOL AIR ALOFT.             
THE AFTERNOON RAINFALL ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH                
SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. SO...THE ONLY CHANCES OF               
PRECIPITATION ARE FOR THE AFTERNOON LEFTOVERS.                                  
PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY ERODE            
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING AT SOME AREAS.                           
PLAYED COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL...AND               
SOUTH SECTIONS. INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE DEVELOPING ACROSS                
CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.                               
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JS                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
902 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOSAIC RADAR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKING EAST              
AT 15 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH MORE             
SHOWERS WEST OF THE NATURE COAST. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE              
UPPER 70S IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO START                 
DEVELOP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE                     
PENINSULA.                                                                      
VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND            
FLORIDA AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 250MB              
JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT             
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES COOL                  
POCKET OF AIR/AROUND -8C/AT 500MB WHILE THE LATEST AREA SOUNDINGS               
WERE ALL SHOWING -9C AT 500MB WHICH IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MAGIC                
-10C FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER AND DEEPER CONVECTIVE              
STORMS THAT COULD FORM LATER TODAY. LOCATIONS THAT GET A SEA                    
BREEZE/ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT COULD SEE STORMS GETTING STRONGER AND             
LIGHTNING INCREASE AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE WEST.                    
SEE OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUMMARY OF WEATHER HAZARDS                
EXPECTED TODAY.                                                                 
CURRENT AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED                   
WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE THAT WILL FRESHEN               
UP THE WORDING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT OVER LOCAL WATERS             
THIS MORNING. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10KT WILL DEVELOP WITH LOCAL                  
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTN.                     
BOATERS WILL AGAIN NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR STORMS MOVING            
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND THIS AFTN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WIMMER                                                             
LONG TERM....GLITTO                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1101 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING/S SURFACE AND UPPER AIR MAPS PLACE RIDGE             
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER               
VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF                  
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS A PORTION OF MIDDLE AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. MAIN            
FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS ON FIRE WEATHER                      
PARAMETERS.                                                                     
RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS THIS              
AFTERNOON THAN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT MODEL GUIDANCE. THINK THAT CONDITIONS        
WILL NOT REACH RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUSTAINED WINDS            
WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS AND RH/S ABOBVE 25 PERCENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
AROUND 15C THIS MORNING SHOULD PROCUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR            
TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SENT UPDATED DEWPOINT              
GRIDS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.            
CJC                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 233 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005...                         
SURFACE HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH RIDGE            
AXIS JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. ONLY A FEW CIRRUS AROUND THIS                  
MORNING. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS            
IN THE 50S.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                                
UPPER LOW TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE            
AROUND TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TUESDAY.                                
TEMPERATURES...TODAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...AS                  
AIRMASS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT             
THAT IS IT. WE START SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT               
TO LOW LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY...AND AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO WARM A BIT.            
TEMPS MONDAY ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER THAN TODAY...AND ANOTHER                   
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUT MOST AREAS IN THE 90 TO 95                 
RANGE FOR TUESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (BEYOND TUESDAY)...                                                  
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST...BUT NOT ALL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS             
TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.               
WITH NO MOIST INFLOW...AND NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES...A DRY FORECAST             
REMAINS THE WAY TO GO.                                                          
TEMPERATURES...FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER AND H85 TEMPERATURES WILL                
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY AND                 
THURSDAY...H85 TEMPS ABOUT 6C WARMER THAN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. THIS           
SHOULD PUT MANY AREAS IN THE MIDDLE 90S...AT LEAST. THESE                       
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST               
PERIOD. ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MIGHT BE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. SUSPECT                
THAT MOISTURE AROUND H85 MAY BE A LITTLE OVERDONE LATE IN THE WEEK              
ON THE GFS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST              
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK GET RAISED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF A FEW AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DRY...            
APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK SOMETIME AFTER WEDNESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                                
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WAGNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
632 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY AT EKN WHERE LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND AT 
CRW AND BKW WHERE MFVR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  THIS FOG SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-14Z
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  PESKY LOW JUST SOUT
OF THE REGION WILL KEPT SCT-BKN050 IN THE EKN-BKW LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  RIDGING 
WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY SCT050 ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION.  SKIES CLEAR AGAIN   
AFTER 00Z.  SOME FOG DEVELOPS AGAIN BETWEEN 03Z-06Z IN RIVER VALLEYS WITH EKN-CR
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 338 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH AGAIN              
TODAY. THIS WILL AGAIN KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE                 
MOUNTAIN ZONES. RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE CWA               
DRY WITH MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT               
AROUND THE 80 MARK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS.                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
STRONG WARM UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BE THE                
DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...GIVING               
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE            
A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER LOW            
LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FINALLY GETS KICKED EASTWARD.                
THE KICKER WILL BE A WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE               
OF THE UPPER HIGH...TRACKING MAINLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID             
ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK COOL FRONT                 
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER                 
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE REMAINING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...EXPECT ONLY             
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE                
FRONT MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY. MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE                 
SHOWING IT'S TYPICAL COLD BIAS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS THROUGH            
WEDNESDAY AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER.                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 114 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SKIES CLEAR WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCT-BKN060 TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH             
OF THE REGION. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKING PLACE. MVFR IN FOG AT            
BKW TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT EKN.  LOOK FOR REST OF AIRPORTS TO FOG BY             
12Z.  PRETTY MUCH SAME SCENARIO AS YESTERDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING TO OUR           
WEST AND A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.  CU AGAIN FORMS BETWEEN              
15Z-18Z WITH CLEARING AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE             
NORTH TODAY AND DYING DOWN TO CALM AFTER 00Z.                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 818 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
WITH THE ONSET OF DUSK...DAYTIME DRIVEN CU HAS FIZZLED OUT OVR MUCH             
OF THE FA...MAINLY W OF THE MTNS.  18Z WSETA AND 21Z RUC40 BOTH                 
ILLUSTRATE CLOUDS IN NRN PA AND OH NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY FARTHER              
S...SO UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT MCLR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE             
NIGHT.  IN THE MTNS...OPTED FOR A LATER ONSET IN PART TO MID CLOUDS             
HANGING AROUND UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.                      
23Z SFC OBS SHOW DWPTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPR 50S AND WITH LIGHT FG              
EXPECTED AT MOST AIRPORTS INC MINT A DEGREE OR TWO.  THIS IS                    
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z MAV...WHICH HAS BROUGHT MINS UP 2F AT MOST                 
LOCATIONS TNGT.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 249 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  FOR THE            
MOST PART...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY              
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING ANY                     
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF               
THE WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY                  
UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.  THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL RESIDE ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WE               
WILL BE LOOKING OFF TO OUR NORTH...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY            
TOWARDS THE CWA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JS                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1021 AM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY A BROAD AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS              
DELAYING THE ONSET OF SUNSHINE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WRAY COLORADO TO            
GOODLAND TO RUSSELL SPRINGS. THE CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THICKENED UP A            
BIT OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY             
WERE SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE WEST. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE HAD                  
VEERED MORE SHARPLY OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS              
ARE FORECAST TO BACK AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY ONCE AGAIN BY                      
AFTERNOON...EVEN AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE GFS AND RUC ARE BOTH                  
HANDLING THE SURFACE AND 850 FLOW WELL. GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS              
AND THE MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...WE SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF                    
YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDS REMAINING THICK OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN             
COUNTIES INCLUDING MCCOOK...HILL CITY...AND OBERLIN. TEMPERATURES               
ALOFT ARE ALSO NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE              
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S IN THOSE AREAS...AND ENDED UP             
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE                      
REGION...WITH THE WARM SPOT LIKELY TO BE YUMA COLORADO IN THE LOWER             
90S.                                                                            
ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO               
EDITS TO SKY COVER OR WIND WERE NEEDED.                                         
NOTED SOME DISCUSSION FROM SPC CONCERNING FAR NORTH CENTRAL TO                  
NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. MID                 
LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED VERY SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND A             
RUC SOUNDING FOR YUMA DOES PRODUCE A DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER               
WITH LITTLE CIN REMAINING. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF LIFT                 
OTHER THAN UPSLOPE FLOW...FEEL THAT STORMS WILL HAVE TO INITIATE IN             
THE MOUNTAINS...AND STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY BE TOO SLOW AND                   
ERRATIC TO REACH YUMA COUNTY. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN NEAR ZERO.                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
226 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...MAIN PROBLEMS ARE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION             
ON MONDAY.  AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS                   
FROM LAST NIGHT CONTINUING TO ERODE ON ITS EASTERN EDGE.  THE RUC               
SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE...HOWEVER              
THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 12Z NAM INDICATE THERE MAY BE            
SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPTH            
OF THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS IT HAS                    
BEEN...SO THINK ANY STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SCATTER OUT                
RATHER QUICKLY ON MONDAY MORNING.                                               
THE MAIN FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH THE              
12Z NAM AND GFS STILL GOING THEIR SEPARATE WAYS.  THE NAM CONTINUES             
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS WHICH IN TURN DRIVES A                   
BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY                      
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS KEEPS THIS FURTHER NORTH AND THEN FIRES ANOTHER             
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL AGAIN GO            
CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS...CANADIAN AND MM5...BUT WILL ADD A SMALL               
POP IN THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTH DAKOTA COMPLEX MOVES INTO            
NORTHERN NEBRASKA.                                                              
.LONG TERM...12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  PRIMARY FOCUS WILL                  
BE ON HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN POSSIBILITY OF                 
PRECIPITATION AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.                                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK                 
RESULTING IN A HOT AND DRY PERIOD. THE NAM CONTINUES IN TRYING TO               
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH OUR CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINS            
AN OUT-LIER WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE REALISTICALLY            
DEFLECT PRECIPITATION UP AND AROUND OUR CWA.  THE CENTER OF THE                 
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD BY MID WEEK AND TEMPERATURES                
WILL SORE INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.  GFS HOLDS THE                
SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND               
WHEN THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME...SFC FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH INTO             
OUR CWA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO 90.  BEST CHANCE            
FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA               
AND HAVE CHOSEN TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                        
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KING/WESELY                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ne