AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
935 PM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
UA TNGT SHOWING DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE WITH ANTICYLONIC SEGMENT                   
STRETCHING FM THE WRN GRT LKS TO ONTARIO CANADA...AND THE CYC                   
PORTION OF JET FM NE TX TO MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  RUC/MESO ETA                   
AS WELL AS FULL SUITE OF 12Z (THU) DATA SHOWING SEGMENT OF JET                  
COUPLET ACRS CNTRL KY OVNGT. THIS STRONGLY DIVERGENT PTN ALOFT                  
...COUPLED WITH DECENT LOW LVL CONVG...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD                  
RAIN TNGT -- AS SFC/UPR SYS APPROACHES FM THE WEST.  CURRENT                    
FCST HANDLES THIS WELL...ALTHOUGH RECENT PRES CHG PTN SUGGESTS                  
LOW TRACK A TAD FURTHER SOUTH OF EARLIER 12Z GUIDE.                             
NEVERTHELESS...SHOT OF RAIN OVNGT INTO FRI MRNG SEEMS LIKE A                    
PRETTY SURE BET. MINOR TWEEKING OF WNDS TNGT FOR EXPECTED                       
TRACK OF SFC LOW.                                                               
.SDF...NONE                                                                     
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLMK 091944  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI                                       
1025 PM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                      
FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 PM EST TO ADJUST TIMING OF PCPN                  
ENDING...REMOVE MENTION OF ANY MIX/CHANGEOVER OVERNIGHT...AND TO                
SLIGHTLY ADJUST EXPECTED MIN TEMPS NWRN ZONES.                                  
LATEST SATL AND 88-D LOOPED IMAGERY SHOWS SFC FRONT MAKING THE                  
EXPECTED RAPID PROGRESS ACROSS NRN LAKE MI...MOVING INTO NW LOWER MI            
ATTM. FRONTAL PROGRESS MUCH SLOWER SRN LAKE MI INTO NRN IL AS IT                
BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. MOST LOCATIONS             
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ERN WI AND LAKE SHORE COUNTIES IN LOWER MI              
REPORTING LIGHT MEASURABLE RAINFALL THIS EVENING. NRN STREAM                    
DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL PCPN IN MI THIS EVENING. SRN STREAM             
SYSTEM NOW SPREADING PCPN NEWD INTO NRN INDIANA AND APPROACHING NW              
OH...BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL STAY JUST S AND E OF GRR              
FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUC II MODEL DATA CONTINUED THE TREND OF                  
KEEPING SRN STREAM RAINFALL MAINLY SE OF OUR COUNTIES. BUT..GIVEN               
CLOSE APPROACH...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SE COUNTIES            
FOR LIKELY PCPN TONIGHT (ASSOC WITH SFC FROPA) AND CHANCE OF                    
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS FRI MORNING (ASSOC WITH SRN STREAM). IT NOW             
APPEARS THE PCPN WILL END BEFORE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO               
SUPPORT ANY MIX/CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. NONE REPORTED SO FAR             
IN THE STATE. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS (12Z) SHOWED NO CHANGEOVER                    
POSSIBLE UNTIL NEAR 12Z IN GRR. PCPN WILL BE WELL E OF THE AREA BY              
THEN.                                                                           
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
GREENE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 092134  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
...MAIN FCST CONCERN IS THE RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOME LES TOMORROW.             
SYNOPSIS...TWO DISTINCT STREAMS STILL EVIDENT ON THE WV WITH A 130              
KT JET STREAK OVER THE CWA ATTM. THE RR QUAD OF THE JET IS ADDING               
LIFT NR LK MICHIGAN AND IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOSTLY -RA              
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UL TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT               
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH SOME COLDER AIR WILL DRIFT DOWN FROM                 
CANADA AND SETTLE OVER THE U.P. TOMORROW NIGHT. MORE NORTHERN STREAM            
ENERGY WILL MOVE IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.                         
SHORT TERM...STEADY LGT RAIN FALLING OVER THE SE QUARTER OF THE CWA             
ATTM. VIS HAS BEEN LOW WITH THE HIGH SFC RH AND LGT WINDS. PER THE              
18Z RUC...A WAVE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OVER SSM THIS EVENING. THIS             
WILL PULL DOWN INCREASINGLY COLDER...DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND               
MAY CHANGE THE RAIN TO A BIT OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING. AM NOT LOOKING              
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS THE SUPPORT FOR THE SYSTEM IS MOVING                   
QUICKLY AND THE COLD AIR IS A LITTLE SLUGGISH. PER COORD W/ APX WILL            
END THE PRECIP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EASTERN ZONES.  DELTA T'S ARE              
MARGINAL OF FLURRIES ALONG THE LAKE AND KEPT THEM IN ON THE KEWEENAW            
AND AT MQT LATER TONIGHT. SOME LINGERING QG FORCING COULD HELP THE              
FLURRIES GET GOING EARLIER THAN NORMAL. AT THIS POINT DELTA T'S                 
DON'T LOOK BIG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FLURRIES OVER NIGHT IN THE EAST.               
ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LES. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE             
THE DELTA T'S. AT THE MOST IT WILL BE 12C IN THE WEST AND 14C IN THE            
EAST. WITH RELATIVELY LOW 850 RH VALUES AND 4K INVERSION HGTS...WILL            
LEAN TOWARD FLURRIES WITH ONLY LOW POP SNOW SHOWERS IN MQT AND EAST.            
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THE VIS IMAGERY...THERE ARE            
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UNDERNEATH THE HIGH IN CANADA. WITH THE ADDED              
MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...AM EXPECTING THE LOW CLOUDS TO BE STUBBORN            
OVER THE U.P. FRIDAY NIGHT. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW 90% RH UNDER THE 3K              
INVERSION SO WILL WORD SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE MQT ZONE AND THAT              
MAY BE GENEROUS.                                                                
ON SATURDAY THE WIND TURNS INTO THE SOUTH WHICH MEANS AN OPPORTUNITY            
FOR LOW CLOUDS FROM LK MICHIGAN IN THE EAST SO HAVE WORDED LTD SUN              
THERE AND PS ELSEWHERE AS HIGH CLOUDS ROLL IN ON THE FAST NRN STREAM            
JET.                                                                            
SUNDAY THE NEXT WK TROUGH APPROACHES. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND              
AVN QPF'S ARE LOW. WILL WORD FLURRIES IN ALL ZONES BECAUSE OF                   
ONGOING QG FORCING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                     
EXTENDED...THE MRF AND ECMWF KEEPS THE TWO STREAMS SEPARATE THROUGH             
THE PERIOD AND BASED ON PERSISTENCE...THAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.              
SO...SHRTWVS WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH LEAVING THE U.P. HIGH AND                
DRY. COLDER AIR IS SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS TO THE NORTHWEST BY                     
THURSDAY...SO WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THURSDAY.           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ALTOE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 092053  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1130 AM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS PCPN POTENTIAL.                             
WV IMAGERY INDICATED NRN STREAM SHRTWV INTO NW MN AND MORE POTENT               
SRN STREAM SHRTWV OVER NRN TEXAS. AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS FROM LK            
SUPERIOR TO WI WAS ASSOCIATED WITH GOOD UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF             
UPR LVL TROF AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE               
ALSO FCST OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV.                  
HOWEVER SFC REPORTS INDICATE RAIN ONLY OVER ERN IA INTO SRN WI SO               
FAR. RADAR RETURNS OVER WRN UPR MI ONLY ALOFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND              
VIRGA. 12Z GRB SNDG ALSO INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL DRY LYR FROM 800-600             
MB TO OVERCOME.                                                                 
15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED FRONT FROM SE IA THROUGH WI TO                       
NEAR THE STRAITS AREA. BEST MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN              
IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY. THIS AREA ALSO IN PROXIMITY TO               
BEST 290-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWEST COND PRES DEF...PER 12Z ETA            
AND RUC. WITH INCREASING UPR LVL SUPPORT...EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT              
OF SCT -SHRA OVER SE 1/3 OF UPR MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT                   
TEMP/DEWPOINT AND ETA/RUC SNDGS AND 1000-850 THICKNESS FCST SUGGEST             
RAIN.                                                                           
16Z TEMPS GENERALLY IN MID 30S. WITH CLOUD COVER                                
AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WAA TEMPS SHOULD NOT CLIMB MUCH THIS                   
AFTERNOON. SO...FCST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR                   
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 091622  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI                                       
1120 AM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                      
LRG CLR AREA HAS OPENED UP OVER SRN LWR MI AND WILL NEED TO UPDATE              
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER. LATEST RUC/ETA INDICATE MAIN              
MSTR PUSH COMES AFTER 00Z SO WL GO WITH MOSUNNY IN THE SRN AND ERN              
ZONES (AZO-LAN-JXN). WILL KEEP THE NW GROUP (MKG/LUD) MOCLDY WITH               
CHC POP AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO SFC FNT AND NOSE OF THE LOW LVL               
MSTR SURGE. FOR CENTRAL ZONE GROUP (SOUTH HAVEN-GRR-MOP)... HAVE                
OPTED FOR PTLY SUNNY AND NO POP TIL TNGT. HAVE ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS           
UP A NOTCH BASED ON  EXPECTED SUNSHINE.                                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 091456  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
955 AM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
PLAN TO UPDATE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IN SOUTHEAST GROUP TO INFER                
MORE SUNSHINE AND RAISE FORECAST MAX.                                           
RECENT RUC FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINNING AND EXITING HIGHER            
LEVEL CLOUDS. IN ADDITION IT CONTINUES TO KEEP THE BETTER LOWER                 
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH THROUGH SOUTHERN OH ATTM TO THE                    
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE WEST STAYING MAINLY             
OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THUS...MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER                 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHICH SUPPORTS A WARMER TEMPERATURE                           
FORECAST...FAVORING 14Z LAMP GUIDANCE MAXES.                                    
UPDATE SHORTLY AFTER 15Z.                                                       
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
STRUBLE                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   mi                                            

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
845 AM PST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION ON          
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH STRONGEST ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE TAHOE SOUTH.           
OROGRAPHICS STILL HELPING KEEP THE SNOW GOING OVER THE SIERRA WITH              
ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES REPORTED THUS FAR THIS MORNING.  COLDER AIR IS          
EVIDENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  AM PLANNING ON UPDATING THE            
FORECAST TO TAKE DOWN THE ADVISORIES...EVEN SOUTH THE MAIN PORTION IS           
DRAGGIN SOUTHWARD.  QUICK LOOK AT THE MODELS...ETA AND RUC...SHOW THE           
VORTICITY MAXIMUM STAYING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SIERRA THROUGH             
THE DAY.  EXPECT TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR           
ARE HERE...BUT THE MAIN PORTION OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER.  WINDS HAVE           
NOT BEEN DOING MUCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS... AND HAVE BEGUN TO                
DECREASE UP ON TOP SOME.  WILL CHECK A FEW MORE SENSORS BUT FEEL THAT           
WIND ADVISORY FOR MONO AND MINERAL CAN BE DROPPED ALSO.                         
THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR               
POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY.  WINDS WILL BE BRISK...AND WITH                   
DECREASED TEMPERATURES THIS MIGHT BE A CONCERN FOR TOMORROW.  CAIRNS            
.REV...EASTERN CALIFORNIA...NONE.                                               
       WESTERN NEVADA...NONE.                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KVEF 091209  nv                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
940 AM CST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
...CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPS AFTERNOON FORECAST CONCERNS...                            
WK SFC LO NR CYWG THIS AM WITH ACCOMPANYING TROF NEARING RRV. W/V               
LOOP SHOWS VORT MAX SPIRALLING INTO NE ND WITH BATCH OF MID-LEVEL               
MOISTURE AND FEW -SHSN IN A BAND FROM JUST N OF FAR AND THEN NE INTO            
NW MN. SUM ECHOES ON KMVX 88D...BUT SFC OBS REPORTING -SN HAVE BEEN             
SPARSE. STILL BELIVE FEW MORE FLAKES THRU AM IS POSSIBLE ESP NE                 
ZONES SO WILL WORD FLURRIES/-SHSN ENDING THERE WITH PARTIAL SUN                 
LATER...AS XPCT LOWER CLOUD THAT LINGERED ALL NIGHT TO FINALLY                  
ADVECT OUT AS WINDS GO W.                                                       
APPEARS TRACK OF VORT LOBE IS A BIT FASTER THAN PRVSLY                          
PROGGED...WHICH SHUD LEAD TO MORE SUNSHINE ACRSS CWA THIS AFTN. 12Z             
RUC PULLS THE H7 MOISTURE EAST OF NW MN BY 18Z AND THEN ONLY CONCERN            
WUD BE LOWER CIGS LAGGING BHND IN SRN MB AND SUM FROM DVL NW.                   
APPEARS BULK OF THIS CLOUD AND STRONGEST CAA WILL SKIRT BORDER                  
COUNTIES THIS AFTN SO WILL IMPROVE THE BCMNG MCLDY TO PSUNNY FAR N.             
XPCT EVEN MORE SUN TO THE S FOR ALMOST COMPLETE SUN MAYVILLE-LISBON             
AND EVENTUALLY FAR TO FFM IN SUBSIDENT SW SIDE OF VORT. THEREFORE               
SUNNY OR BCMNG SUNNY WILL WORK THERE.                                           
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT LESSENING INVERSION THRU AFTN IN WEAK CAA               
PATTN. THIS SHUD HELP MIX DOWN FROM BTWEEN H85-H9 AND BOOST TEMPS TO            
ARND FRZNG S AND MID/UPPER 20S N. WILL BUMP UP NUMBERS JUST A TAD IN N WITH     
MORE INSOLATION NOW XPCTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSWHRE.                          
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   nd                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
943 AM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
DISC:  14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES TRYING TO HANG ON ALONG THE               
ERN PTNS OF THE CAROLINAS. LOW PRES ALNG TX/OK BORDER.                          
MORNING VSBY SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDINESS ACRS THE WRN PTN OF THE            
STATE SLOWLY SPREADING EWD. ALSO CLDS ALNG THE S CST EXTENDING OFSHR            
TRYING TO PUSH W AND NW TOWARD THE SERN PTN OF THE CWA. WL DIVIDE UP            
AREA AS PER CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS...ESP WHERE                
MORE CLDS ARE PERSISTANT. SFC OBS EVEN SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACRS             
GA AND PER GSPAFD. 00Z ETA RUN AND MORNING RUC SHOWING MOISTURE TO              
OUR W...WL SLOWLY PUSH EWD DURING THE AFT. MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS             
SOME PER CLD COVER...BUT WL MONITOR THRU ISSUANCE TIME.                         
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 091430  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
910 PM CST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING DEALS WITH FOG FORMATION...YES OR NO.             
LOOKING AT LATEST RUC 850 AND 925 MB RH FIELDS...DRYING MOVES IN                
FROM WEST THROUGH 06Z. VERY DRY AIR SEEN AT 850MB...WITH RH BY 06Z              
ON ORDER OF 15-25%. AT 925MB...RH BIT HIGHER...45-55%...BUT LOW                 
CLOUD EDGE IN ND IS CLOSE TO 75% RH LINE. EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL                 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR PUSHING INTO             
REGION AHEAD OF 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO ERODE CLOUDS. LOOKING             
AT FOG IMAGE...LOW CLOUDS IN RRV ARE ERODING QUICKLY AS THEY MOVE               
SOUTH. WILL PULL MENTION OF FOG OUT OF ERN CWA ZONES. WINDS IN THE              
KMBG AND KPIR AREAS ARE ALREADY TURNING SOUTHEAST...SO WILL NEATEN              
UP WIND FORECAST AS WELL. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK. UPDATES               
OUT SHORTLY.                                                                    
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 100153  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
805 PM CST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
SFC LOW ACROSS NE AR THIS EVENING W/ LINEAR MCS EXTENDING FROM                  
CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. STORMS IN NRN MS               
HAVE SHOWN OCCASIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MESO FEATURES...OTRW NOT MUCH               
GOING ON RIGHT NOW. 40-50KT LLJ STILL EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR W/ 80 KT            
MID LEVEL JET ON OKOLONA PROFILER. CURRENT PLANS ARE TO DROP                    
COUNTIES OUT OF WATCH FROM WEST TO EAST AS WRN EDGE OF MCS PASSES               
THROUGH. HOWEVER...SFC ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL COMPOSITE DOES SHOW                
SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS W/ OCCASIONAL LTG ACROSS NW AR ATTM. GIVEN              
CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT RUC KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP IN OUR WRN              
ZONES OVNT WILL LIKELY KEEP A LOW POP WHEN UPDATE IS ISSUED.                    
.MEM...TORNADO WATCH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MS UNTIL 1 AM...               
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 PM ELSEWHERE.                                            
CBD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 100135  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
901 PM EST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE EAST OF THE FA AND OUT TO SEA OVRNITE TONITE.            
MEANWHILE...ONE (NORTHERN STREAM) STORM SYS TO MOVE NE ACRS ONT                 
TONITE AS A SECOND (SOUTHERN STREAM) LOW PRESS SYS MOVES DOWN THE OH            
VLY. THE NORTHERN STORM WILL BE MOVING ACRS SOUTHERN QUE ON FRI AS              
THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACKS ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. UPR TROF TO             
MOVE EAST ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRI.                      
IR SAT PIX/FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUDINESS MOVING NE ACRS WESTERN NY               
ATTM. -RA NOTED AT IAG AT AROUND 01Z. FEEL THAT THIS AREA OF PCPN               
WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA (IN ONT) OVRNITE. THE CLOUDINESS IS             
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WK H85 WAA AND A FEW WK H5 VORT MAXES THAT WILL            
BE MOVING NE ACRS THE FA OVRNITE TONIGHT. TRACKING THESE CLDS IN THE            
IR SAT PIX HAS THEM INTO THE ST LAW VLY BY AFT 05Z...INTO THE                   
ADIRONDACKS/SRN VT BY AROUND 08Z...AND ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA BY                 
AROUND 11Z OR SO. WILL BRING IN A FEW CLDS INTO THE CHAMP VLY/RUT               
COUNTY ZONE GROUPING BY EARLY FRI MORNING.                                      
21Z RUC HOLDS OFF PCPN THROUGH 09Z AND HAS 2M TEMPS GETTING DOWN                
INTO THE M-U20S IN NE/NC VT...THE L-M30S IN THE ST LAW VLY...AND                
AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. WILL BUMP OVRNITE TEMPS UP A TAD IN THE                    
ADIRONDACKS DUE TO CURRENT OBS TRENDS AND THE FACT THAT THEY/LL BE              
CLOUDING OVER OVRNITE.                                                          
ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW ANY PCPN THAT FALLS IN THE ST LAW VLY                  
DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF FRI MAY FALL AS -FZRA. THIS ESPECIALLY              
TRUE UP TOWARDS MSS-LAND WITH WK NE FLOW OVRNITE. GOING FORECAST HAS            
THIS COVERED.                                                                   
ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO ANY LATER PERIODS. WORK ZONES AWAY.              
NO LAMP DATA IN AWIPS/N-AWIPS. FINAL ISSUANCE IN A BIT.                         
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBTV 092005  vt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
255 AM CST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
FIRST CONCERN TODAY IS THE LINGERING SC DECK OVER ALL BUT THE FAR S.            
ALL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...ARE INSISTENT THAT               
THIS DECK SHOULD BE ERODING AWAY QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT WE HAVE             
YET TO SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF THAT. WILL PROBABLY NEED A LITTLE                    
INSOLATION TO GET RID OF THEM SO WILL WORD THE 1ST PERIOD FOR CLOUDY            
EARLY THEN DECREASING CLOUDS.                                                   
MODELS HAVE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES ON THIS RUN WITH RESPECT TO                 
THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT CAUSES US SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE LATTER PERIODS            
AND EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST. NGM...ETA AND AVN ALL AGREE ON               
DIGGING THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA AND                   
EVENTUALLY CUTTING IT OFF NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER. BY 12/00Z...THE              
AVN IS FASTEST AND FARTHEST N OF THE THREE...ETA IS SLOWEST AND                 
FARTHEST S...NGM IS BETWEEN THE TWO BUT ALSO STRONGER THAN THE                  
OTHERS. HOWEVER...THE NGM BY FAR HAS THE BEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY            
SO WILL FAVOR IT. THIS MEANS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO                 
SPREAD INTO OUR AREA A BIT SLOWER THAN THE AVN SHOWS...AND ALSO                 
SLOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST. THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND            
FOR A CUTOFF SYSTEM.                                                            
FWC TEMPS LOOK OK...ESP IN THE 1ST COUPLE OF PERIODS WHERE THEY                 
AGREE VERY WELL WITH THE ETA 2M TEMPS. 3RD PERIOD MAY BE A BIT TOO              
COOL ON THE FWC AT MOST LOCALES. IF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS A BIT             
SLOWER...LIKE THE ETA SHOWS...THEN WE WOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER ON           
SATURDAY. MAY USE A RANGE OF TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO COVER THAT                    
POSSIBILITY.                                                                    
05                                                                              
PRELIMS...                                                                      
SHV 61/41/58/52 0024                                                            
MLU 58/40/58/50 0013                                                            
TXK 60/41/55/48 0024                                                            
TYR 59/43/56/50 0035                                                            
LFK 62/43/60/52 0046                                                            
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLCH 100856  la                                      

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
435 AM PST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
A PACIFIC STORM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.                
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RATHER LIGHT WITH THE SNOW LEVEL                
DROPPING TO 4000 FEET. MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE THREAT DAMAGING HIGH             
WINDS FOLLOWING THE STORMS PASSAGE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND                 
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR TODAY             
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO                 
SUNDAY...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER SHOULD RETURN AND CONTINUE                      
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.                                             
WHERE TO BEGIN...PRECIPITATION STARTED WITH THE POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY        
SHOWERS AROUND 130 AM...AMOUNTS SO FAR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.            
UPSTREAM KVBG SOUNDING AND AVAILABLE RAWS STATIONS TEMPERATURE TREND            
WOULD INDICATE SNOW LEVEL LOWERING TO 4000 FEET WITH TEMPERATURES               
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT         
OF MOST SHOWERS SHOULD END AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS...WHICH              
APPEARS TO BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE AVN         
MODEL IS USED OR THE NGM/ETA/RUC MODELS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY          
LOOPS YIELDED A ESE 33 KT MOVEMENT TO THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH SUPPORTS THE        
FASTER AVN MODEL...SO LEFT THE IDEA OF AFTERNOON CLEARING ALONE. NOW ON         
TO THE WIND PROBLEM... UNLIKE MY FIASCO LAST WEEK...WENT AGAINST INITIAL        
IMPRESSION AND UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH TO WARNING AND ISSUED WIND              
ADVISORIES/ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS/DOWNSTREAM              
ZONES. SUPPORT FOR THIS FOUND IN THE 300-200 MB RUC 100 KT PLUS                 
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG 125 WEST LONGITUDE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO 120W BY          
18Z...AVN MODEL EVEN FURTHER EAST...TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS OF THE           
MESOETA MODEL SHOWING DOWNWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES OF -8 UMB  BEGINNING         
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND INCREASING TO -16 BY 11/12Z...OFFSHORE PRESSURE          
GRADIENT BETWEEN KTPH AND KSAN INCREASING FROM -5 MB AT 11/00Z TO -10 TO        
-16 MB BY 11/12Z DEPENDING AGAIN ON WHICH MODEL IS USED...AND JUST TO           
PUT THE ICING ON THE CAKE...LOCAL WIND FORECAST SCHEME YIELDING  65 TO          
77 MPH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND 94 TO 106 MPH WIND GUSTS FOR                      
TONIGHT/SATURDAY BELOW CAJON PASS AND THROUGH SANTA ANA RIVER VALLEY.           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT 5 DAYS         
WITH TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN ARIZONA/NRN MEXICO...RIDGE        
BUILDING OVER CALIFORNIA/NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY THEN RETROGRADING WEST AS        
DEEP LOW MOVES OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN            
THROUGH NW CANADA. EITHER WAY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH DRY NORTHWEST          
FLOW ALOFT. IDEA OF RETURNING MARINE LAYER BY MID WEEK REASONABLE BUT           
NOT FULLY EXPLORED DUE TO SHORT TERM PROBLEMS/TIME CONSTRAINTS.                 
SAN 300                                                                         
.SAN...HI WIND WARNINGS/WATCHES/WIND ADVISORIES THRU 230 PM SAT...REFER         
       TO LATEST LAXNPWSAN.                                                     
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...REFER TO LAXCWFSGX                                
       ABOVE NORMAL SURF...REFER TO LATEST LAXMWSSAN AND LAXOMRSGX              
BALFOUR                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 101145  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                     
...LES EVOLUTION IS MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...                                      
FCST AREA CURRENTLY UNDERGOING STRONG NDPA/QVECTOR DIV IN WAKE OF               
DEPARTING UPR SHORTWV OVER N LOWER MI. PURE LES UNDERWAY OVER                   
SUPERIOR WITH RUC DEPICTING 850MB THERMAL TROF OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR             
ATTM. 12Z RAOBS (ESPECIALLY KINL) IMPLY RUC HAS WARM BIAS BY                    
1-2C...SO DELTA T'S ARE 16-18C. NEVERTHELESS IR IMAGERY DEPICTING               
WARMING TOPS OVER E LAKE SUPERIOR LAST FEW HOURS WITH MAX 88D                   
REFLECTIVITIES STILL NR 28DBZ FROM E MQT COUNTY-ALGER COUNTY.                   
UPSTREAM YWPL SOUNDING AND NGM SFC-850MB PARCEL TRAJECTORIES IMPLY              
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LAKE THIS                   
AFTERNOON. IR/VIS IMAGERY ALREADY DEPICTING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING               
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLDS APPROACHING N LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM. CMX ASOS                
DEPICTS SN HAD ENDING WITH P6SM. ANY LINGERING -SHSN OVER KEEWENAW              
AND W LK SUPERIOR WILL TAPER TO ONLY FLURRIES THIS AFT WITH                     
CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM N AND LOWER SUBSIDENCE                       
INVERSION...SO I WILL CANCEL ADVISORY WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUM.                 
E OF MQT...LES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS INVERSION              
HEIGHT CONTINUES TO LOWER. WILL GO AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THIS                
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUM EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.                 
ALSO ISSUED GALE WARNING FOR E LAKE SUPERIOR PER 2 SHIP REPORTS OF              
35-45KT WINDS.                                                                  
.MQT...LK EFFECT SN ADVY DISCONTINUED MIZ001>003.                               
       LK EFFECT SN ADVY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ006-007 AND NRN PART                 
        MIZ014.                                                                 
       GALE WARNING E LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 101613  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
950 AM EST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
PLAN AN UPDATE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR               
TODAY.                                                                          
CURRENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH HELPING TO AID IN SNOW               
SHOWERS NORTHERN LOWER. CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THIS WAVE IN            
ADDITION TO FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWER                 
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST...AND RUC SHOWING THE SAME             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP MORE CLOUDS NORTHWEST AND ADD                   
MENTION OF FLURRIES. FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES EXPECT THE                  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT TOO MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.                        
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF IN THE CAA FIELD...BUT SOME SUNSHINE               
WILL HELP TO HOLD THEM UP A LITTLE. CURRENTLY FAVORING THE LAMP                 
FORECAST TEMPERATURE SCHEME. WILL ALSO BUMP UP THE WIND                         
FORECAST...WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE HELPING TO BRING DOWN THE                  
STRONGER WIND SPEEDS.                                                           
UPDATE PLANNED SHORTLY AFTER 15Z.                                               
.DTX...GALE WARNING LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                      
STRUBLE                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 101427  mi                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
455 AM PST THU DEC 9 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL                
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE HIGH               
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEVADA...ALLOWING BRISK NORTH WINDS           
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.           
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY             
CENTER OVER BFL AREA WITH SECONDARY CIRCULATION VCNTY DRA. PATTERN              
PROBABLY RESEMBLES AVN EVOLUTION MOST CLOSELY. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE            
REMAINS IN THE 800-600MB LAYER ACCORDING TO THE DRA SOUNDING BUT BEST           
FORCING IS SHIFTING SE SO PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH NEXT FEW           
HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.                               
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE WINDS. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT             
IN BUILDING SFC HIGH OVER GREAT BASIN BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT            
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AMONG THEM. NGM IS DEPICTING A VERY STRONG              
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND SUGGESTING           
SOME AREAS WILL GET WARNING LEVEL WINDS. BUT THE NGM HAS ADVERTISED             
THIS SYSTEM AS BEING COLDER AND STRONGER THAN IT REALLY IS WITH A               
TRAJECTORY TOO FAR NORTH. THE OFF-TIME ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE THE             
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE/LO LVL THERMAL GRADIENTS. SO                
AFTER SOME SERIOUS WAFFLING...I DECIDED TO GO WITH A WIND ADVOSIRY              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA...AND WORDING THAT                 
SUGGESTS WIND ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA FOR THIS           
EVENING. HOPEFULLY THE SITUATION WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR FOR THE DAY             
SHIFT AND THEY CAN EITHER GO AHEAD AND HOIST THE ADVISORY OR BE IN A            
BETTER POSITION TO TRIM THE WORDING BACK FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.             
RUNK                                                                            
.LAS...WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INYO AND SAN BERNARDINO                
COUNTIES...CA ZONES 26/27/28. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST RNONPWLAS                   
STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 101101  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
948 AM EST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
COLD FRONT NOW RIPPING THROUGH WRN CAROLINAS AT 30 KTS. AT THIS CLIP            
DEEP MSTR RECOVERY MAY PROVE DIFFICULT IN DRY MID LVLS ALG COAST AS             
SEEN IN 12Z MHX RAOB. GSO SNDG WETTER ALOFT SO LIKE CURRENT POP                 
DISTRIBUTION FOR ZNS...HIGHER N AND W LOWER S. THIS COINCIDES WITH              
PROJECTED OMEGA PLOTS. RUC AND ETA QPF FLDS SIMILAR IN POINTING TO              
SCT POP CVRG. OVRHD AND UPSTREAM DRY H7-H5 AIR STILL ALLOWING BOUTS             
OF SUN SO WILL LIKELY WORD MOSTLY OR CONSDRBLY CLOUDY.                          
ALREADY 69 F HERE AT MHX. CURRENT METARS AND CLOUD COVER SUGGESTS               
SOME SLGT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD NEEDED. COUPLE STRIKES LTG SEEN IN NC              
MNTNS AND WITH INCREASED LOW AND MID LVL DESTAB FROM ADDITIONAL                 
INSOLATION LIKE MENTION OF PSBL TSTM INLAND ZONES EVEN THOUGH K                 
INDEX MARGINAL AND LIS UNIMPRESSIVE THERE.                                      
MARINE: GRADIENT TIGHTENES AS SECONDARY SFC LOW TRACKS NE THROUGH               
APPALACHIA. NEARLY UNIFORM CONSENSUS IN MODEL WIND COMPARISON IN                
DEPICTING S 20 KTS THIS AFTN GOING SW 25 TO 30 AROUND DUSK.                     
THUS WILL HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY IN THIS UPDATE.                              
.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.                                                  
MJC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 101448  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
957 AM EST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
DISC:  14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CDFNT PUSHING INTO THE UPSTATE.                   
RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS LINE OF SHRA AHEAD OF FRONT MOVG EWD FROM THE             
UPSTATE INTO THE MIDLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS PTLY CLDY               
SKIES OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE AREA AND CLDY W WITH SHRA. 00Z ETA AND             
MORNING RUC SIMILIAR IN PUSHING CDFNT ITO THE MIDLANDS BY MIDDAY.               
MODELS SHOW LINE OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF SFC FRNT AND E OF THE AREA            
BY EARLY AFT. WL LIKELY SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND THE CDFNT AS SHRA              
MOVE BY. WL WORD FCST FOR SHRA EARLY WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE              
AFT. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...TEMPS RISING NICELY ACRS AREAS SEEING                 
SUNSHINE...SHOULD TOP OFF NEAR FCST MAXES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF PCPN WITH SYS...RADAR ESTIMATES ONLY SHOWING UP TO ONE                   
QUARTER OF AN INCH. WL ADJUST WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTION SLIGHTLY FOR            
AFT. WINDS A BIT BREEZY HERE AT CAE...15 TO 20 G 25.                            
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 100841  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
930 AM CST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
MRNG VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING LINE ALONG A MARTIN-OSCEOLA-WYNNE               
LINE MOVING ESE AT AROUND 30KT. AT THIS RATE...ALL BUT THE EXTREME              
SOUTH AND SERN COUNTIES WILL BE CLEAR BY EARLY AFTN. NOT SURE HOW               
MUCH SUN (IF ANY) OUR SERN COUNTIES WILL SEE TODAY W/ ETA/RUC                   
KEEPING SFC-925MB LAYER SATURATED THROUGH AROUND LATE AFTN. ALL IN              
ALL...CURRENT ZONES HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO                
TEMPS ARE PLANNED ATTM W/ DECENT CAA AND LOW SUN ANGLE LEADING TO               
ONLY A CAT OR TWO CLIMB IN TEMPS. AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 17Z TO            
REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO MAKE MAINLY COSMETIC CHANGES.                     
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
CBD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 101457  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
900 PM PST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
COLD MORNING WITH MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S AND VALLEY           
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. STRONG VALLEY INVERSION CURRENTLY KEEPING              
AIRPORT WIND OBSERVATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND MAY KEEP MOST           
VALLEY WINDS TEMPERED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...ACCORDING TO RUC                   
SOUNDINGS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HEADS SOUTH                           
TONIGHT...KEEPING STRONG OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA CONDITIONS GOING DOWN               
THERE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS UNDER                    
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY WITH BLOCKING UPSTREAM RIDGE DEFLECTING             
160KT+ PACIFIC JET INTO WESTERN CANADA.                                         
PATCHY FOG AT BEST IS EXPECTED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SATURDAY               
MORNING AS DEW POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER SIGNIFICANTLY.                
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED FROST TO DEVLOP IN THE REST OF THE WIND             
SHELTERED AREAS OF THE VALLEY. MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ENJOY               
SIGNIFICANT WARMING SATURDAY AS ETA FORECASTS 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP            
3 TO 5 DEG.                                                                     
NEXT SPEED MAX MANAGES TO ERODE RIDGE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY                           
NIGHT...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITAION SUNDAY NIGHT              
AND MONDAY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. SJC                                           
.STO...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL             
       SACRAMENTO VALLEY...SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...CARQUINEZ               
       STRAIT AND DELTA...AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSGX 101717  ca                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
925 AM MST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS EVAPORATIVE COOLING ABOVE 650MB...AS OFTEN                   
HAPPENS IN WARM ADVECTION.  WEAK 90KT JET IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO                
ENHANCED CIRRUS OVER THE SAN JUANS BUT APPARENTLY PRODUCED NO                   
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP...PERHAPS SOME HIGH MTN -SN.  NORTHERN SPLIT OF              
TROF PRODUCING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.  14Z RUC AND 12Z ETA/NGM             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWER DRY LAYER MOISTENS UP BY 00Z THIS                 
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT.  ETA PRECIP FIELD                 
LOOKS OVERBLOWN CONSIDERING THE LACK OF FORCING...AND ACTUALLY                  
PREFER THE NGM FCST FOR NOW (APOLOGIES TO YOUNGER FORECASTERS).                 
TROF AXIS PASSES LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NORTH FLOW SATURDAY           
EXPECTED TO SHUT DOWN PRECIP FOR ALL BUT MTN FLURRIES ON NORTH                  
SLOPES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  NO SURPRISES IN               
EXTENDED WITH NEXT OPEN PACIFIC TROF PRECIP STILL TIMED FOR LATE                
MONDAY NORTHERN ZONES...TUESDAY ELSEWHERE.  NEW MRF NO SHOWING                  
SIGNS OF SPLITTING THIS SYSTEM TOO.   99/RAMEY                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 101021  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
215 PM EST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
AT 19Z CLOUDS HAD CLEARED ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WEST OF A LINE               
FROM LEXINGTON TO BOWLING GREEN. RUC DATA INDICATED THAT THE EXTREME            
EASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 6 PM.                                          
AFTER SUCH A LONG PERIOD UNDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS IT IS NICE TO LOOK            
AT AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. JUST AS ONE SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE            
WE HAVE ANOTHER TROUGH AND S/W TO DEAL WITH AT THE END OF THIS                  
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE MEAN TIME COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO            
THE REGION. WE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME                 
CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS ON SATURDAY BUT THIS WILL BE THIN           
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LOOK GOOD. AFTER ONE DAY OF COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WARMER AIR AND                  
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE STATE. THE NGM IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA OR            
AVN ON BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND WE FEEL THIS IS            
THE MODEL OF CHOICE SINCE IT DID A BETTER JOB ON TIMING THE LAST                
SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY.  WITH THAT IN MIND WE WILL NOT MENTION                  
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.                                                        
UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND            
30 DEGREES. FAN AND FWC NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.              
.SDF...NONE                                                                     
JA                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 101832  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1040 AM CST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                     
BOTH 12Z KBIS AND KABR SOUNDING SHOWING HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABV              
10K AHEAD OF PACIFIC WAVE CROSSING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  MAIN S/W              
ENERY IN SRN CA HANDLED WELL BY PREVIOUS MODELS.  WV IMAGERY SHOWING            
UPSTREAM RDGNG IN ERN PACIFIC AS PLANNED WITH ONSHORE FLOW INTO WRN             
CAN...HELPING TO KEEP SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSING EWD ACRS NRN TIER.                 
IMMEDIATE PROBLEM FOR REST OF DAY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH                 
CLOUDINESS.  BOTH NEW ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW HIGH RH AT THE MID                
LEVELS SPREADING INTO WRN MN ZFA THRU EARLY AFTN WITH HIGH CLDS INTO            
ERN MN ZFA LTR THIS AFTN.  WITH MANY TEMPS STILL IN TEENS IN WRN                
AREAS...WL NEED TO LWR HIGHS SLIGHTLY.  HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE             
UPR 20S IN ERN AREAS SO TEMPS ON TRACK.  COLD AIR ADVECTION SC                  
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP ACRS WI ZNS 15..16..27.                                   
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 100839  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO ADD PRELIM NUMBERS AND TYPO                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
325 PM CST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                      
CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY WITH SEVERAL ASPECTS TO FOCUS ON. FIRST              
IS CLOUDS TONIGHT. EARLIER EROSION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CLOUD SHIELD            
HAS PRETTY MUCH STOPPED...WHILE A SLOW CLEARING FROM THE N ACROSS               
FAR N MS CONTINUES. RUC SHOWS 925 MB FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY BY 03Z              
WHICH SHOULD SLOW CLEARING FROM THE N. FURTHERMORE...MODELS CONCUR              
ON KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RELATIVELY HIGH TONIGHT WHICH MAY                 
ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN SOME EROSION. WILL             
LIKELY KEEP DELTA REGIONS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
OR VARIABLE CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. MENTIONED A LITTLE FOG IN THE S                   
OVERNIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE               
PRESENT TIME AND FAVORABLE LOOKING FOG FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IF ANY               
AREAS FARTHER N DO CLEAR FOR A TIME COULD SEE SOME FOG FORM THERE ALSO.         
SATURDAY...STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO             
INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. NEXT SYSTEM BECOMES            
THE MAIN FOCUS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE                   
EXTENDED PERIOD. ETA SHOWS SYSTEM STRONGLY DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO              
BY 12Z SUN WHILE NGM NOT QUITE AS DEEP AND AVN QUITE A BIT MORE                 
PROGRESSIVE. 12Z AVN IS A MARKED CHANGE FROM 00Z MRF WHICH LOOKED               
MUCH LIKE ETA AT 12Z SUN. FURTHERMORE...EXAMINATION OF INITIAL DATA             
INDICATES THAT ETA WAS BEST IN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER JET OVER WRN               
US/NE PACIFIC RESPONSIBLE FOR STRONGLY DIGGING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.            
WILL GO WITH ETA SOLUTION WHICH AGREES WELL WITH 12Z CANADIAN MODEL             
AND NCEP REASONING. THIS SOLUTION MEANS THAT BY SATURDAY NIGHT GULF INFLOW      
WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER S               
TX. ETA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF            
NRN AND WRN ZONES BY 12Z SUN. REGION ALSO IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION              
OF UPPER JET OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHERMORE...ELEVATED                     
CONVECTION PARAMETERS APPEAR INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME                    
ELEVATED STORMS THIS AREA LATE SAT NIGHT. SHOWALTER INDICES FROM ETA            
JUST ABOVE ZERO...BUT ETA OFTEN DOES NOT SHOW ENOUGH ELEVATED                   
INSTABILITY IN THESE SCENARIOS. HENCE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE                
POPS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT MOST AREAS AND MENTION THUNDERSTORMS. WILL              
KEEP SW DRY BUT HAVE LOW POPS IN THE SE AS A FEW SHOWERS OFTEN                  
DEVELOP HERE IN THE INITIAL RETURN FLOW.                                        
00Z MRF/12Z CANADIAN SHOW WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORMS FOR SUNDAY AND                 
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL WORD ZONES ACCORDINGLY. CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM               
RANGE MODELS INDICATE DRY SLOT FOR MONDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY MENTION             
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THEN AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS              
REGION. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD DECREASE INTO MIDWEEK.                      
QPF DISCUSSION...NONE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SUN.                                 
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
JAN 042/062 048/067 0-36                                                        
MEI 040/066 045/067 0025                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
08                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KJAN 102120  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1110 AM CST FRI DEC 10 1999                                                     
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FORECAST AREA             
IS SOLIDIFYING WHILE PULLING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW             
VEERS AROUND TO A MORE NE DIRECTION. RUC/ETA DATA INDICATE THAT                 
MOISTURE AROUND 925 MB WILL HOLD IN ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE            
AFTERNOON. BASED ON ALL THIS...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO DELAY CLEARING              
UNTIL TONIGHT. WITH MORE CLOUDINESS...WILL LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS                
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES MOST LOCATIONS.                                 
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KJAN 100900  ms