At the Crossroads
                       Daniel S. Goldin
                      NASA Administrator
             International Space Business Assembly
                       November 4, 1999

Good morning everyone. Thank you for being here.

As you know, the space industry is in the midst of 
incredible change. Former adversaries are now partners in 
the drive to send humans into the depths of space.

I am pleased to speak to you today, because I strongly 
believe that the new millennium has the potential to be the 
space millennium.

Notice that I said the potential to be the space 
millennium. For if we do not rise to the challenges before 
us, space activities may not be as prominent in the 21st 
century as we would like them to be.

We are at what Intels Andy Grove calls an inflection 
pointthe point at which the old strategic picture 
dissolves and gives way to the new. And that new strategic 
picture can take a business even higher, or it can ruin a 
company.

This is where the space business is today. The decisions we 
make at this inflection point will determine our future 
success or failure in space.

And make no mistake, there is incredible potential. 

First, peaceful exploration of space could be the model for 
maintaining peace on Earth.

Second, space activities and technologies could 
dramatically expand global business and drive the worlds 
economic engine into the next century and beyond. 

The economic opportunities space provides might enrich the 
people of Earth, and the technologies we develop could 
dramatically improve the lives of people around the world.

But we must rise to the challenge before us.

Let me give you just one example.

Right now, there are about 1 billion phones on Earth for 
about 6 billion people. And even at that, some estimate 
only about half of the worlds people have ever used a 
phone.

At the same time, there are only about 100 million Internet 
terminals in the world. But it is projected that there will 
be 1 billion around 2010  equal to the number of phones in 
just 10 years.

And remember, thats just terminals connected to the 
Internet. Think about how many people have computers and 
arent on-lineyet.

Despite that, there will still be as many Internet 
terminals as there are telephones. Amazing.

That helps to explain the explosive growth of Internet 
companies. It also tells us that there will be an explosion 
in the bandwidth used by those terminals and in the 
delivery of data and services. Economic opportunity 
abounds.

But to be an essential part of the explosion, space 
companies will need to be much more competitive and 
compatible with terrestrial technologies. So far, space 
industries have been too sluggish in mobile and broadband 
services. And were getting whipped.

Think about it. PCS service costs pennies a minute, while 
mobile space communication costs dollars per minute.

And the ground-based mobile and fixed communications 
terminals are getting smaller and cheaper. In fact, in some 
instances they are being given away as part of the service 
agreement. Yet space systems are still large and expensive.

Terrestrial companies are offering better service at lower 
costs, because they are leveraging technologies to their 
advantage much faster.

Just imagine the economic possibilities for space companies 
that can do the same thing. And remember that we may have 
lost some of the battles, but we havent lost the war.

Now there is no question that we face barriers to our 
growth. 

For instance, the space sector is lagging behind in 
developing interconnective technologies and applying them 
to broad commercial uses. Thats why many companies are 
facing financial crises. 

Simply providing unique services without interconnectivity 
could be the kiss of death for businesses. 

A decade ago, the big advantage of satellite communications 
was in broad bandwidth and rapid infrastructure deployment 
to rural areas. Telephone lines were operating at about 64 
Kilobits per second, and special high-speed lines at 1.5 
Megabits per second could be leased. Meanwhile, satellite 
communications promised Gigabits/sec.

But today terrestrial communications lines are no longer 
fixed bandwidth. Companies provide bandwidth on demand, 
and1.5 Megabits per second is routinely available.

To the dismay of those of us in this room, the vision of 
satellite communications displacing ground lines has not 
occurred.

Now theyre throwing in the Internet, and the entire 
playing field has changed. 

The land is laced with a vast ground network into many 
homes. More than 100 Kilobits per second is nothing 
special. Fiber optics is more and more commonplace, and 
television cable will soon make 10 Megabits per second 
routine. 

The competition doesnt stop there: Internet II promises up 
to Gigabits per second.

So these are the challenges for the satellite 
communications industry to surge forward:

(1) Interoperability: we need to develop standards and 
protocols that work seamlessly for voice, data and video 
 just like and with terrestrial communications.

(2) Quality of service: Satellite services must be 
comparable to the best fiber optic lines, they must 
network seamlessly with ground networks, and mobile 
services must be clear, available, and compatible with 
ground systems for switch over. That means 24-hour 
availability and close to 100% reliabilityassured 
anytime, any where, interruption and interference free

(3) Cost must be competitive with terrestrial 
communication services. This means the space 
communications industry must integrate advanced 
technologies into operational systems, with a much 
shorter cycle time from concept to deployment.

(4) Latency must be addressed for geo-synchronous 
satellites: Current geo-synchronous satellites are 
latency independent, because they deliver entertainment 
and data. When the Internet demands synchronization of 
voice, video, and data, we cannot tolerate the 1/2-second 
time delay in sending the signal up and down. Radical new 
approaches must be found. If we switch to MEO and LEO 
service to solve latency issues, we must still 
aggressively address cost, reliability, and availability 
of service. We must take an integrated approach.

However, there are success stories of how we have met 
challenges that many said were insurmountable.

In 1993, NASA launched the Advanced Communications 
Technology Satellite (ACTS) into geosynchronous orbit. It 
was the first commercial demonstration of Ka-band 
communications in the U.S. I salute the Europeans and Japan 
for already having launched Ka band payloads.

ACTS demonstrated what we can do when we set our minds and 
our resources to advancing technology to meet the needs of 
the future. Since ACTS, there have been over a dozen (15) 
Ka-band filings in U.S. alone and about twice that many in 
other parts of the world. 

Some of the things we have done with ACTS are clearly 
leading the way for the next generation of space 
communication satellites.

ACTS operates at up to 622 Megabits/sec and has 
demonstrated the ability to limit errors to one bit in a 
trillion. This is exceptional performance. Even better than 
most ground networks, which only operate at up to 2/3 the 
speed and have 10 to 100 times more errors.

By comparison current GEO communications is limited to 
about 100 Megabits/sec with error rates of about 1 bit in a 
billion.

Also, unlike conventional communications satellites, which 
broadcast a single beam across an area the size of a 
continent, ACTS can distribute many smaller targeted 
beamseach about the size of New Jersey--providing much 
greater simultaneous coverage.

ACTS on-board processing provides a switchboard in the sky 
that supports single hop digital links. This enables a 
direct path between ground points controlled by the 
satellite; no need to go through a ground based switching 
center, unless commercial requirements dictate it. And we 
demonstrated very small aperture terminals about the size 
of a Direct TV dish, making this capability much more 
convenient and cost effective.

NASA is doing its part but we are looking to the commercial 
community to carry the bulk of the load from here. In spite 
of what ACTS has done, ground systems are advancing at the 
speed of light. Global networks, interoperability, and 
multi-Gigabit data rates are what they offer. The future 
for space communications is not set in stone. The 
challenges are great, and it is up to all of us to meet 
them. 

Beyond developing interconnected systems and deploying 
lower cost constellations in much shorter times, we must 
also significantly reduce the cost of launching those 
systems. There is no way we will be able to compete with 
terrestrial technologies if we dont dramatically reduce 
launch cost.

NASA is deeply committed to developing breakthrough 
technologies that will dramatically increase reliability 
and reduce cost. And we encourage the private sector to 
work on them too. 

As we break through the barriers of interconnectivity, 
quality of service, cost, and latency, we will begin to 
realize the incredible potential of commercial space 
communications.

Another area ripe for development is people in space. And 
just last year, 16 nations joined together to pursue this 
opportunity.

The International Space Station draws on our long history 
of cooperation in space with Canada, Europe, and Japan. It 
strengthens ties with emerging space programs. And, perhaps 
just as importantly, the ISS facilitates the move from 
hostile competition to mutual collaboration with Russia.

On the ISS, we have robotics, launch, laboratories, and 
ground support provided by multiple nations. An 
international crew will inhabit the ISS beginning next 
spring and begin to conduct world-class research.

Some of that research will deal with the health of our 
astronauts during long-term space missions. We will develop 
health protocols for the microgravity environment. 

We may also be able to seize opportunities in emerging 
areas like remote sensing. NASA is purchasing science data 
from commercial sources where they meet our research needs. 

The only stipulation is that industry deliver the data we 
want, to the quality standards we specify and for 
significantly lower costs that our conventional satellite 
builds. This can only occur if companies build a strong and 
broad commercial customer base outside the federal 
government and truly commercialize space. 

Im sure you will hear a lot more about the opportunities 
in remote sensing during the next panel.

Where do we go from here? 

I would like to share with you a vision of the 21st century. 
It is a vision of a future world with nations and industry 
sharing responsibilities, opportunities and challenges 
through peaceful interaction in civil space endeavors.

We will surround the globe with a network of Earth-
observing spacecraft that will provide continuous, long-
term information on climate change. They will detect and 
help mitigate natural disasters across the globe, such as 
forest fires, hurricanes and volcanic eruptions. And they 
will monitor commercial and natural resources such as farm 
production and fish migration. Some of these assets will be 
NASAs, a minimal number, and some may be commercial 
spacecraft linked into the Web.

We will intensify our investigations within our own Solar 
System. Increasingly intelligent robotic probes may plunge 
deeply beneath the icy surface of Europa. And we could 
sample material along dry riverbeds and seas on Mars, and 
bore beneath the dry Martian surface, bringing samples back 
to Earth for sophisticated analysis.

Eventually we will send humans to Mars and beyond.

Just imagine the revolutionary new technologies we need to 
develop if we hope to reach these ambitious goals. We will 
need small, highly efficient instruments and robots that 
can operate autonomously, handle unforeseen problems, 
decide what data to take and when to take it, and reduce 
this data to useful information products to send back to 
Earth. And we will be doing this in some of the harshest 
environments imaginable. 

Now let these systems work for us on Earth. They will 
support our space assets in all phases of climate modeling, 
resource location, and helping us with natural disasters. 
Scores of these smart sensors and their intelligent 
information networks will provide us invaluable information 
to keep out lives saferwithout ever placing a human at 
risk. 

And when we can explore and monitor planets millions of 
miles from Earth, exploring and monitoring our own planet 
is almost childs play. 

Imagine the new markets that these technologies could 
generate.

Yes, the new millennium could well be the space millennium. 
But only if we make the right decisions at this inflection 
point.

The future of the space frontier can make the third 
millennium a magnificent time of achievement for 
humankind. We all know the tremendous power and 
potential of the technologies we work with on a daily 
basis. They have been the foundation for an 
unprecedented expansion of new business opportunities 
and improved quality of life for people around the 
world. 

We all know technology has the power to improve 
society and the power to endanger it.

All the benefits of decades of work to open the space 
frontier by governments, industry, brilliant 
scientists and engineers from around the globe 

All the advances in the economic well-being and 
quality of life of people around the world that space 
has provided can fall apart . . . 

All because some individuals, some companies, some 
governmentschoose not to stop those who would violate 
the Missile Technology Control Regime and related 
norms. Instead they end up allowing the use key 
technologies to destabilize others, and to destroy 
economic and social opportunity.

Let us not be nave to ignore the troubling signs. Let 
us not pretend danger may not lurk around the corner.

Let us not turn our backs when there is exploitation 
for commercial gain. 

If we are united in this commitment, we can isolate 
and minimize the threat.

We in the US also realize that adherence to 
nonproliferation norms may add a hurdle for businesses.

I had the privilege of serving as President Clintons 
Representative at the Paris Air Show in June of this year. 
A common concern expressed to me by both U.S. industry, 
foreign corporations and foreign governments was that in 
our vigilant efforts to protect global security, U.S. 
export law is adversely affecting business opportunities. 
As you may have heard here this week, the U.S. Government 
is working to address those concerns. But we will do it in 
a way that fully supports international norms on 
nonproliferation and combats threats to security. Without 
balanced enforcement, we resign ourselves to a more 
unstable world. 

Let me be very clear. 

Fundamental to global space cooperation and 
international business development is adherence to 
MTCR and related nonproliferation norms. 

The space industry faces a crucial inflection point 
today because of technical, economic, and political 
obstacles. To overcome them, we have to make hard 
decisions about where we want to go in the future.

Like many of you, I got into the space industry because we 
go where no one has gone before and do things no one else 
does. 

Think about that when you face these critical decisions.

When I think about those decisions, I cant help but 
think about my grandchildren Zachary and Jessica. And I 
think about the kind of future I want for them.

Look into your childrens and grandchildrens eyes before 
you make decisions that will effect the next generation.

The decisions we makebig and small--will determine 
humankinds destiny in space in the 21st century.

Will we give up on the dreams we had a decade ago? 

Or will we work together to achieve our dreams and take the 
space industry to new heights?

The time is now.

And the decision is ours.

Thank you very much.