SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA                                        
235 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT              
SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER             
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF THE               
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY WARM...AND SOME AFTERNOON            
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY MID                
WEEK. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL              
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. WATER               
VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOWED A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURES OVER               
THE REGION...AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTED THAT THE 500MB HIGH                
WILL SHIFT EAST ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER BY 00Z. MODELS IN CLOSE            
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A WEAK RIPPLE INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING HEIGHTS             
AND THICKNESSES TO LEVEL OFF DURING NEXT TWO DAYS RATHER THAN BUILD             
GRADUALLY.  WILL THUS TREND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY             
INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE-WISE WE CAN EXPECT A SMALL INCREASE IN THE               
MID LEVEL DEW POINTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA...AND WILL TREND CLOUD              
COVER SLIGHTLY UP EACH DAY.  SHARP RH GRADIENT ALSO LIKELY EAST OF              
ZONE 24...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION WELL EAST OF               
THE GLOBE-MIAMI AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  AFTER WEDNESDAY            
MORNING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS INLAND...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO              
AN INCREASE IN CIFM CLOUDCOVER LATER IN THE WEEK.  THICKNESSES ALSO             
WILL TREND DOWN FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR MID              
JUNE.  SIPPLE                                                                   
.PSR...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
...UPDATE...                                                                    
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN N CENTRL OK HAVE BEEN PERSISTING FOR SOME                
TIME NOW AND COULD VERY WELL PUSH A DECENT OUTFLOW BNDY INTO S                  
CENTRL KS. RUC MODEL TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD              
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS S CENTRL KS. WILL             
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS STORM MOVEMENT IS NEARLY ZERO WHICH              
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                            
TNGHT                                                                           
WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT POPS FOR NW CWA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS               
THE AREA TNGHT WITH PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK.                                     
SUN-MON                                                                         
WEAK UPPER WAVE FROM SATURDAY WOBBLES SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER WEAK               
UPPER WAVE HANGING OUT JUST TO THE N OF CWA ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE A              
FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY TRYING TO                        
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER CENTRL KS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE             
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THE MOMENT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION ON MON AND SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING              
IN THE 80S.                                                                     
TUES                                                                            
NO CHANGES MADE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA                 
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING.                                         
EXTENDED: WED-SAT                                                               
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR                   
WED/THUR TIME FRAME...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WEST COAST WED AND            
THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES COME THUR. WOULD EXPECT A FEW               
SHORT WAVES TO MIGRATE THRU THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ALONG            
WITH AMPLE MSTR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.                 
MODELS DO SHOW A FEW WAVES SLIDING ALONG AND AT THE MOMENT THESE                
WAVES APPEAR TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS               
SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE                   
EXPECTED.                                                                       
HEADING INTO FRI IS WHEN GFS AND ECM BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR CONTINUITY.            
GFS FIZZLES OUT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLIES MOVING BACK NORTHWARD          
BUT ECM SOLUTION SHOWS TROUGH MAINTAINING AND SHIFTS IT EAST. WILL              
SIDE WITH ECM MODEL THINKING THAT GFS IS DROPPING THE TROUGH TOO                
SOON AND WOULD EXPECT NEXT GFS RUN TO REFLECT THIS. VERY DEEP MSTR              
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND COULD MOVE INTO                 
CENTRL KS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ECM SOLUTION SHOWS A              
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO            
WESTERN HALF OF CWA ON FRI. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THIS WAVE                 
SLOWING DOWN/SPEEDING UP. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR FRI AND CONTINUE TO            
WATCH AS TIMING COULD BE MOVED AROUND BY LATER SHIFTS. COULD TOSS               
CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT TOO BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT AND              
WAIT TO SEE WHAT NEXT MODEL RUN HAS TO OFFER. IF THE MODELS KEEP                
THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION GOING WILL PROBABLY NEED TO PUT CHANCES OF               
RAIN IN FOR SAT AS WELL.                                                        
FCSTID = 15/JAKUB                                                               
ICT   63  85  63  86 /   5   5   0   0                                          
HUT   62  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
EWK   63  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
EQA   63  85  63  86 /  10  10  10   0                                          
WLD   63  85  64  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
RSL   61  83  61  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
GBD   61  84  62  87 /  20  10  10   0                                          
SLN   62  84  62  86 /   5   0   0   0                                          
MPR   63  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
CFV   64  84  64  85 /  10   0  10   0                                          
CNU   64  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0                                          
K88   64  84  62  85 /  10   0  10   0                                          
.ICT...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
MORNING UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES              
INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL ADD THE REMAINDER OF WRN MD/ERN WV             
PANHANDLE AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SUNNY START THIS MORNING WILL              
HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS RATHER QUICKLY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS                  
TYPICAL WET MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST            
NEAR THE SFC. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO                    
YESTERDAY AMS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG.               
BOTH MESOETA/RUC HIT THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS VERY HARD THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARD EVENING.  WILL ADD               
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES. FFA/EOL/ZFP             
OUT ASAP. RADAR IS DOWN ETS NOTIFIED AND HOPE TO HAVE RADAR BACK BY             
NOON.                                                                           
ROSA                                                                            
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
GOING TO HAVE TO START PHONING IN THE FORECAST FROM HOME...THIS IS              
GETTING RATHER MONOTONOUS. ANOTHER HUMID...STICKY...THUNDERSTORMS IN            
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING KIND OF DAY. WITH PRECIP H2O AMOUNTS AGAIN                
AROUND 2 INCHES AND DWPTS STAYING AROUND 70 DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY            
THERE WILL NOT BE MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY. FOR THAT REASON WILL               
COME OUT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL AGAIN LEAVE               
OUT LOWR S MD AND THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA SINCE THE COASTL PLAIN SE             
OF THE FALL LINE IS MUCH HARDER TO FLOOD. THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT              
SW VA WHICH HAS HAD LESS RAIN...AND ALLGNY CO MD AND THE WESTERN                
COUNTIES FOR COORD PURPOSES. DAYSHIFT CAN ADD ONTO THIS AREA IF NEC             
LATER TODAY.                                                                    
FLOW DOES SEEM TO TURN A BIT FROM WEAK SW TO WEAK W TODAY SO                    
HOPEFULLY THAT CAN LIMIT TSRA ACTVTY SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS AS                
HIGH LIKLY TODAY INSTD OF THE CATGRCL THAT WE HAD YESTRDY.                      
SPC CAME OUT WITH ANOTHER SLGHT RISK DAY FOR US TODAY...AGAIN NOT               
MUCH CHG FROM THE PAST FEW. INSTAB AGAIN PREVALENT WITH LIS AROUND              
-2 TO -4. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HELCTY. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE               
PRIMRLY DMG WINDS AND POSBLY SOME HAIL.                                         
COLD FRONT WILL EBB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNGHT WITH WINDS GOING FROM              
WEAK WSW TO NW AND EVNTLLY N BY EARLY SUN MORN.                                 
WENT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTRDY WITH HIGHS GENRLLY IN              
THE MID 80S.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...WITH             
SHEARING SHORTWAVES LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE                
OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE              
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES                  
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEAST INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                                        
SHORTWAVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHEAR AWAY SOME ENERGY FROM THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE              
SOUTHEAST AND KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING             
TO DEVELOP IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS               
WILL HELP THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE CWA                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
DONT BUY THE MODELS BRINGING IN STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST               
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS SHOW             
A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE                   
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN ALSO            
AGREE THAT REMNANTS OF SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST             
WORKS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES TROUGH. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN                   
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF THE CWA...AND MAY EVEN RETURN NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE               
REINFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR            
PATTERN WITH EACH MODEL...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO            
FORECAST SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR             
NOW SINCE I THINK THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY.                        
NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM            
DOESNT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN CHANGER. INSTEAD...GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A              
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN                 
CANADA...WHICH SHEARS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST...STALLING THE SURFACE               
BOUNDARY IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK               
WEEK.                                                                           
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.                              
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES                                     
     MDZ003>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.                                      
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES                                     
     VAZ026>031...VAZ038>042...VAZ050>054.                                      
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ051>053.                         
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
900 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA...               
WITH RDGING IN NRN BRANCH OVR CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN TROFS OFF THE PAC             
NW AND OVR NEW ENGLAND. SFC HI PRES UNDER THE UPR RDGING STRETCHES              
FM ONTARIO INTO LK SUP...AND CWA DOMINATED THIS EVNG BY LLVL NNELY              
FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF THIS SYS. 00Z GRB/APX/INL SNDGS SHOW DRY                   
AIRMASS ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS WITH KINX < 10 AND SUBSIDENCE INVRNS               
BTWN H85-75 ABV WELL MIXED PBL. XCPT FOR SOME PTCHY HI CLD OVR THE              
WRN ZNS...SKIES MOCLR ACRS REST OF CWA. PESKY SC THAT PREVAILED NR              
THE LK SUP SHORE E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT              
WITH THE DRY NNE FLOW. SFC DWPTS REMAIN 50 TO 55 ACRS MOST OF FA.               
SRN BRANCH UPR FLOW ACRS THE SRN CONUS AND OF NO CONCERN FOR FA.                
MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS MIN TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG.                      
21Z RUC/18Z ETA DEPICT UPR RDGING/VERY DRY H85-5 AIR REMAINING                  
DOMINANT OVRNGT OVR THE UPR GRT LKS WITH SFC HI PRES RDG BLDG S AND             
OVR CWA. SO XPCT CLR SKIES/DCRSG WNDS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AND              
MIXING CEASES AFTER SUNSET. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS STILL FAIRLY HI...               
TREND IS FOR READINGS TO FALL WITH DRY ADVCTN. DISSIPATION OF SC NR             
LK SUP SHORE ALSO AN INDICATION OF THIS DRYING. 4" GRND TEMP                    
MEASURED AT CWA THIS EVNG 58 AND SVRL DEGREES ABV MIN DWPT OBSVD                
THIS AFTN. THIS WARM GRND AND DRY ADVCTN SHUD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION            
DESPITE MOCLR SKIES...LGT WNDS AND POTENTIAL FOR TEMP TO DROP THRU              
CURRENT DWPT. UPSTREAM MINS THIS MRNG GENERALLY 45 TO 50...WHICH IS             
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH XPCTD DWPT TREND AND GOING FCST. LTL CHG                 
NECESSARY TO GOING FCST.                                                        
KC                                                                              
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                             
SUN INTO MON...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING REFLECTED IN MODEL             
SNDGS AS UPR RDG AMPLIFIES OVER REGION. 500MB HEIGHTS FCST TO BUILD             
INTO THE LOWER 580S AS ETA/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS WARMING TO 4-5C.                   
DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ALG WITH FAIRLY DRY DWPNTS OF 50F             
OR LOWER SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL DIURNAL CU ESPECIALLY WITH                    
LOWERING OF MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. MIXING TO 800 MB OR                   
SLIGHTLY ABV WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS INTO MID/UPR 70S SUNDAY AND               
LOWER 80S MON...THIS IN LINE WITH GOING FCST AND 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.              
.TUESDAY...5H RDG HGTS FLATTEN A BIT AS SHRTWV MOVES DOWN FM SASK               
AND MANITOBA. ASSOC NRN PLAINS CDFNT MOVES TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY 00Z ALTHOUGH GFS ATTM KEEP PCPN WEST OF CWA. WON'T BE SURPRISED              
TO SEE SOME WAA HI CLDS AHD OF FRONT OVR WRN HALF OF CWA IN LINE                
WITH ETA FCST SNDGS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULDN'T HAVE TOO BIG OF AN                
IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS. EVEN MIXING TO SLIGHTLY ABV 850 MB WHICH SEEMS             
REASONABLE UNDER THIN CIRRUS...STILL WOULD SEE HIGHS IN LOWER 80S               
ACROSS INLAND AREA. LGT SRLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY KEEP ERN                
COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 70S).                                      
EXTENDED...(WED-SAT)...AS UPR AXIS SLIDES EAST...SHRTWV AND WK CDFNT            
MOVE ACROSS AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED BRINGING A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TO              
CWA. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE STILL INDICATE CDFNT WILL              
EXIT AREA LATE WED. SO WILL CONTINUE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST               
FOR THU...ALTHOUGH MODELS TRENDING FURTHER NORTH WITH SHRTWV KEEPING            
COLDEST TEMPS WELL TO NORTH. ECMWF AND GFS NOW INDICATE HGTS AND 850            
MB TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BY LATE WEEK (FRI AND SAT)...850 MB               
TEMPS RISE TO 14-15C BY SAT. SO HAVE TRENDED WARMER TOWARD END OF               
WEEK BRINGING INLAND TEMPS BACK INTO LOW 80S.                                   
VOSS                                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1111 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
UPDATE...                                                                       
JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/POP/SKY GRIDS AND A ZFP MORNING                  
PERIOD CLEANUP IS TRIGGERING THIS UPDATE. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED               
WEAK FRONT STILL JUST TO OUR WEST AND OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.                  
PARAMETERS PLUCKED OFF OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF CNY CAPPED             
AT ABOUT 800-700 MB WITH NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR HEATING EXPECTED TO             
BREAK IT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. OVER NE PA SFC BASED                
HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS REGION THE MOST UNSTABLE            
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPLY AS THE WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO BE OVER NE            
PA MID-LATE AFTN. AS CTP NOTED...PIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING                     
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AND WIND PROFILES FVRBL FOR TRAINING CELLS.               
RUC MBE VECTOR PROGS AT AVP ARE A LTL FASTER THIS AFTERNOON THAN                
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE MESO-BETA SCALE LOW TOPPED HEAVY RAIN                   
PRODUCING CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING LAST EVENING...SO POTENTIAL IS               
STILL POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL BE ON              
THE LOOKOUT WITH EACH LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP. PREV FCST HANDLED                  
OVERALL TSRA FCST WELL WITH TARGET AREA FROM THE WY VALLEY OVER TO              
MSV. ELSEWHERE WILL STILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHCS FOR A SHOWER AS WK              
UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NRN NY AND NEW ENG LATER TODAY.                           
BREWSTER                                                                        
EARLY AM DISCUSSION...                                                          
SHRT WAVE ALOFT PASSING E AND TAKING SCTRD RW/TRW WITH IT. THIS                 
ACVTY SHUD BE GONE B4 DAWN AND VERY ISLD LIGHT RW WORKS INTO THE CWA            
BY MID MORNING. REGION REMAINS UNDER QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE            
TODAY. SO WITH MAX HEATING THERE WILL SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF                     
CONVECTION THIS AFTRN. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME CAPPING WHICH IN             
NY SHUD PUT A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING JUST CHC FOR RW- IN             
NY...DOWN IN PA WHERE DWPTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...PARCELS MAY              
BE ABLE TO LOCALLY BREAK THRU CAP WITH SUNSHINE ESP ON THE POCONOS              
AND THEREFORE WILL HV CHC FOR RW- AND AN ISLD TRW-.                             
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN PV LOBE ALOFT SWINGS BY ACRS NY AND SUPPORTS SOME            
MID-LVL LIFTG. ETA SUGGESTS SOME CHC FOR SOME RW-...MAYBE A HOLD                
OVER FROM THE AFTRN ACVTY. GFS IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS SHARP AS               
THE ETA WITH THE VORT LOBE. IN ANY EVENT...IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHC             
OR AN ISLD RW- IN NY CLSR TO THE LIFTG WITH THE UPR WAVE. I WILL                
KEEP NE PA MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE HOLDOVER RW- PAST 0Z.               
IT IS THIS MAIN UPR FEATURE THAT PASSES THRU THIS EVE THAT WILL                 
ALLOW A STRG RDG ALOFT TO BUILD S AND SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVE FRNTL                
BNDRY TO THE S OF NY/N PA BY TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SUNNY CONDITIONS BY            
SUNDAY AND ALSO FOR MONDAY.                                                     
ISC GRIDS AVBL SOON. THANKS TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE EXCELLENT            
CHAT COORDINATION. THANKS BUF FOR THE CALL.                                     
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
NICOSIA                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
843 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
PUBLIC: MAIN CHANGE ON UPDATE WILL BE TO LWR POPS ACRS CWFA                     
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW SLGHT CHC POPS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN PART OF             
THE CWFA IN CASE SOME OF THE CONVECTION SPILLS ACRS THE NRN SXNS                
FROM VA LATE TNGT. RUC MODEL HINTS AT THIS OCCURRING. NO OTHER CHGS             
ANTICIPATED WITH SLY WINDS NR 10 MPH...EXCEPT BREEZY 10-20 MPH ACRS             
OBX...PTCLDY SKIES...AND LOW TEMPS IN THE LWR TO MIDDLE 70S.                    
MARINE: LATEST BUOY REPORTS STILL INDICATING SEAS IN 3 TO 4 FOOT                
RANGE WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS. THIS IN LINE WITH                  
CURRENT FORECAST...ALTHOUGH FORECAST DOES INDICATE 4 TO 5 FEET. AS              
WINDS BACK A BIT MORE OVERNIGHT WOULD ANTICIPATE SWELLS INCREASING A            
BIT PUSHING SEAS CLOSER TO 5 FEET JUST OFF SHORE. WILL UPDATE ONLY              
FOR WORDING. DO NOT PLAN CHANGE TO GOING SEA HEIGHTS.                           
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
COLE/FAUCETTE                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003.                                                     
...FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TSRA THREAT LATE OVER FAR NW FA...               
ONE BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MB IN                 
RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL WAVE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CONTINUES             
OVER WESTERN ND ALONG MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS AND WEAK                        
CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION HAVING A TOUGH TIME PROPAGATING EAST AS                 
ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN               
PART OF STATE. WHILE RUC SHIFTS 850MB THETA-E RIDGE EASTWARD INTO               
CENTRAL ND LOSS OF HEATING...LACK OF LOW LEVEL JET...UPPER DYNAMICS             
AND BOUNDARY REMAINING TO OUR WEST AM HAVING DOUBTS IF ANY PCPN WILL            
REACH INTO FA LATE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND IF ANY                 
MENTION OF TSRA IS CONTINUED WILL BE ISOLD. OTWS REMAINDER OF FCST              
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. BROAD WARM ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK SOUTH             
FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS UP. HIGH CU HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING SOME                    
EVENTUAL CI DEBRIS OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOCLR. ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR               
UPDATE WILL BE MINOR.                                                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NR CVG-CHILLICOTHE ATTM.               
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT            
BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE SOUTHSIDE.  RUC SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL VORT               
SHIFTS FROM WESTERN KY TO ERN KY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  QUESTION IS              
HOW MUCH THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. ETA AND AVN ARE SLOWER AND               
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN NGM IN PUSHING FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA. FRONT                
MAKES IT SOUTH OF FA BY 06Z.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN IN THE                  
SOUTHERN THIRD FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.                                   
UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK OF THE SEVERAL DAYS.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS                 
NORTH OF FRONT ISNT EXTREMELY STABLE...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE                 
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF NORTH OF THE FRONT.                                      
VORT DROPS OUT OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO IL BY TUE            
MORNING....THEN EJECTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING MID WEEK.  DO            
RECEIVE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SYSTEM UNTIL MID WEEK...SO WILL KEEP             
THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                           
MAV MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK TO COOL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT               
FORECAST.                                                                       
CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
SITES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
LATEST 88D IMAGERY INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING TO LIGHTEN ACROSS               
ILN FA. ASSOCIATED FORCING FROM MID LVL S/W CONTINUES TO DIMINISH               
ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR MID LVL                   
FORCING TO BE REINFORCED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS               
THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FA. BDRY LAYER FORCING HOWEVER...APPEARS VERY            
WEAK AT BEST IN THE VICINITY OF WK FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LATEST ETA AND            
RUC MODELS CONTINUING TO DROP THE FRONT SLOWLY S THROUGHOUT THE                 
DAY...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN              
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY             
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO               
THE EVENING. CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...HOWEVER MAY ADJUST               
TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                   
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
JTD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS               
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS                   
FEATURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL               
WYOMING.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF             
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK 925-850 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE                 
NOTED IN MESOETA/RUC ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES BY 18Z.  12Z                
SOUNDING FROM KABR SHOWING COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSIONS BUT THIS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN ANY INHIBITION THIS                 
AFTERNOON.  RUC/MESOETA SB CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS            
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF WEAK 850 HPA THETA E                  
RIDGE.  SO WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS                         
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
WILL JUST MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CHANCE OF CONVECTION...BUT            
DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN THAT BETTER CHANCE DOES APPEAR             
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF EASTERN MONTANA DEFORMATION                 
AXIS.  LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS WITH EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY NUDGING UP            
MAX T GRIDS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT                       
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24                 
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.                                            
*********************************************************************           
EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)                                            
910 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE              
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON AND               
DEVELOPED BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE VALLEY AREAS. CURRENTLY THE               
NORTHEAST HAS THE GREATEST COVERAGE. A WEAK TROUGH/FRONT CONTINUES              
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY               
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH RUC INDICATES VORT MAX MOVING               
NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AND MESOETA INDICATES                     
INCREASING VORTICITY TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH SHIFTS MORE            
SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE POPS DECREASE TO CHANCE CATEGORY LATER TONIGHT              
ACROSS FORECAST AREA WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL WAIT ABOUT AN HOUR            
AND THEN DROP RAIN CHANCES TO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.                             
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
TD                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
258 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
AS OF LATE...THE FORECAST PROBLEM SHORT TERM AND EVEN LATER PERIODS             
...IS HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE PCPN DEVELOPS EACH PERIOD.  THE SHORT                 
RANGE MODELS OVERALL ARE QUITE WET FOR TONIGHT...AND I DO SEE SOME              
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (PER WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE PICS) AS              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LOWER MISS VALLEY REGION MOVES NORTHEAST.                 
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR W AND SW...AND EXPECT            
THIS ACTIVITY TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROGRESSES.              
MOS HIGH POPS DON'T LOOK TOO BAD FOR TONIGHT...FACTORING IN AT                  
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA PASSING OVER SAME AREAS.                         
FOR LATER PERIODS...STILL THINKING THAT WEAK SHORTWAVES ACTING ON               
THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR THAN THE                
VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPICTED ON SURFACE PROGS.  THIS MAKES               
TIMING PCPN AND ESTIMATING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA VERY DIFFICULT...              
EVEN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS.  I DID ADJUST POPS UP                   
GENERALLY ALL AREAS FOR THESE PERIODS...BUT STAYED BELOW THE                    
HIGHER MAV MOS POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                                
BEYOND THE ABOVE MENTIONED PERIODS...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL                 
TROUGH AND WEAK FRONT FORCE THE INSERTION OF RAIN CHANCES FOR NEARLY            
EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.  HOWEVER...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY              
COOLING WHEN THE SO-CALLED FRONT EASES SOUTH OF OUR REGION.                     
PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW:                                              
FCSTID =   10                                                                   
CHA   69  83  68  84 /  80  60  30  40                                          
TYS   68  82  68  82 /  80  60  40  40                                          
TRI   65  80  65  80 /  70  70  40  40                                          
OQT   68  81  68  82 /  80  60  40  40                                          
TG                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)                                            
958 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
ANOTHER DAY AND GENERALLY THE SAME AIRMASS (VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY           
UNSTABLE).  ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD               
CONVECTIVE PCPN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH MOS POPS                  
RUNNING FROM HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.  THE QUESTION REMAINS WILL             
THIS BE THE DAY THAT THIS ACTUALLY DOES OCCUR?  AFTER SEEING AT                 
LEAST 2 DAYS OF MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
DEVELOP...I REMAIN A BIT SKEPTICAL.                                             
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING JUST               
INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AT THIS TIME...SO THIS MAY BE A REAL                 
FEATURE TO HELP INITIATE THE CONVECTIVE PCPN THE MODELS ARE                     
ADVERTISING.  IF WE REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...CAPES               
SHOULD HIT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF AT LEAST -4 TO              
-6 DEGS C.  WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND GENERALLY UNI                
DIRECTIONAL...PLUS A RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO                 
HEIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL.  THE K INDICES AND                       
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE                 
FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.                 
WAITING TO SEE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH AN                  
UPDATE POSSIBLE IF HIGHER POPS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY IN A FEW SPOTS.             
TG                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION                                               
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE               
AREA OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH SOUNDINGS               
CONTINUING TO REVEAL A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT             
(WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY) IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE             
MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK              
AND SOUTHWESTERLY (WHICH WILL NOT GIVE THE FRONT MUCH PUSH). THUS...            
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST                
AREA...WITH AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS A              
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN VERY               
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S.                                                         
LATER PERIODS...MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER SURFACE BOUNDARY                     
COMPLETELY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ETA HANGS THE FRONT OVER THE                 
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHILE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT SOMEWHAT FURTHER               
SOUTH. AS A RESULT ETA PROJECTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY.           
ETA TIME HEIGHT ALSO DEPICTS DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE WILL PERSIST                 
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WHILE GFS DEPICTS MID-LEVEL DRYING BY 18Z SUNDAY.            
BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY...PREFER BLEND OF GFS AND NGM GUIDANCE FOR            
POPS. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SUN.            
TENDED TO FAVOR SOMEWHAT COOLER GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS.                             
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:                                                     
CHA   82  68  84  67 /  50  50  40  30                                          
TYS   81  67  83  66 /  50  50  50  30                                          
TRI   80  65  80  64 /  50  50  50  30                                          
OQT   81  67  83  66 /  50  50  50  30                                          
DMG/LCM                                                                         
*********************************************************************           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO TRY            
TO RECOVER AFTER MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE STATE ON FRI. MOISTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN THE WAKE OF             
YESTERDAYS STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN TX AS SEEN IN THE DEWPOINT            
AND THETA-E FIELDS. HOWEVER...RWS ARE STARTING TO POP UP ALONG THE              
SEA BREEZE NE OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AS SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS            
TO RECOVER ALONG THE COAST. WV ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA               
ACROSS NE TX/OK W/ A STRONG S/WV MVG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW               
ACROSS NM AND WRN TX. MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING             
THIS S/WV. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FEATURE MUCH STRONGER W/               
HEIGHT MAINLY ABOVE H5. STILL COUNTING ON THIS FEATURE SPARKING                 
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SFC ROF ACROSS NE MX AND CEN TX LATE THIS               
AFTN AND EVENING W/ ACTIVITY MVG TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN NW              
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT LOOKING                   
PROMISING. GOING BY THE RUCS TIMING ON THE S/WV WOULD MEAN HIGHER               
POPS TONIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY SUN AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EVENT                 
UNFOLDS. THIS IS OPPOSITE OF INDICATIONS BY MOS POPS...BUT THE                  
MODELS AND MOS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD THUS FAR W/ THE PAST            
FEW DAYS EVENTS. SPC HAS THE NRN AREAS JUST BARELY INCLUDED IN A                
SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LOW LVL JET TONIGHT AND            
LOWER THETA-E VALUES THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS. WILL JUST KEEP              
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                         
UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE TROF AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN            
TX THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ S/WVS CONTINUING TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF            
THE TROF OVR THE REGION...WHILE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC TROFS CONTINUE            
ACROSS THE REGION.  ANY CONVECTION IN ONE PERIOD WILL HAMPER                    
CONVECTION IN THE NEXT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. SO ANY CONVECTION            
TONIGHT WILL HAMPER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION ON SUN. IF THE TSTMS DO              
NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SUN WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT. GIVEN THE                 
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH SUN NIGHT REALIZING THESE                
WILL NEED TO BE MASSAGED W/ TIME AS THINGS UNFOLD.                              
MARINE...WEAK TROFFING TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVR THE NRN            
GOMEX WILL PROMOTE JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WHICH WILL              
LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH. MAY NEED A CAUTION            
FOR SEAS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH                
THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ NO FLAGS EXPECTED.                                        
LONG-TERM (MON THROUGH SAT)...FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY AS                  
GFS/MRF/AVN STILL WANT TO KEEP MOISTURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AROUND             
DESPITE FORECAST OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LACK OF UPPER                
SUPPORT.  GIVEN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...APPARENT               
DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN AS PER SATELLITE...AND LACK OF 850MB              
JET FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT ONCE ALL OF THE             
APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST.  ONLY BOUNDARY IS THE                  
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GFS TRIES TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK.               
THIS...IF ANYTHING MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE                 
COAST (DESPITE PWAT FORECASTS 1.5 INCHES OR LESS).  WILL KEEP SOME              
CONVECTION MENTIONED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO FIT AREAL FORECASTS...BUT             
WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP BEYOND THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.  WITH                  
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING THE LONG TERM AND ACTUAL WEAK                
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS NEAR IF             
NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD              
AND THE MOISTURE RETURNS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF A                   
GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES.  NO PROBLEMS                 
EXPECTED ON THE MARINE SIDE OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF CONVECTION.                    
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP BE 075/089 073/089 073 444423                                               
VCT BE 072/090 070/089 072 544423                                               
LRD BE 075/095 074/097 075 544222                                               
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
88/MJG...SHORT-TERM                                                             
86/GW...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE AXES/WARMING             
THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  LONGER TERM                  
CONCERN IS WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES...ALLOWING                    
WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST                  
AREA.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.                                           
DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE                   
/LAPS/MSAS THETA-E AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS/ EXTENDING FROM                        
KGRB-KDBQ-KOTM.  THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE AXIS             
NOTED BY THE RUC/ETA MODELS...AND IS ALSO WHERE RESIDUAL TROUGHING              
FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS.  THUS...THE EFFECTS FROM                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...AND THE SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL               
WEAKNESS IN THE VORTICITY FIELD NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR                        
IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.                 
GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  TONIGHT...THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT A                    
BOUNDARY MOVES WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS IN EFFECT DRIES OUT THE             
FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST.  AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...THE             
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY.  THIS IS              
ENOUGH FOR THE RUC TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF            
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL NOTE THIS TO THE RELIEF THIS EVENING SO             
IT CAN BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.                   
THE MOISTURE AXIS...BOTH SURFACE AND AT 850 MB MOVES TO A POSITION              
THAT EXTENDS FROM KMCW-KRST-KMDZ SUNDAY MORNING.  SBCAPES AGAIN                 
REACH INTO THE 2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED             
BY AFTERNOON.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE                
DAKOTAS MOVING INTO A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA WOULD SUGGEST THE SAME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION            
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS AXIS.                                   
THEREFORE...INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE FORECAST.                                  
THE SAME CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THERE             
BEING NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION.                     
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS THETA-E AXIS REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE A 10             
PERCENT CHANCE IN THE DATABASE TO PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR                      
INTRODUCING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD IT BE NECESSARY.                     
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY OVER             
THE WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE EASTERN            
COUNTIES.  THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS A DEEP MIXING LAYER...WITH DRY                 
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.  THEREFORE...USED AN EXTRAPOLATED 850                    
TEMPERATURE AND CAME UP WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...REFLECTING THE            
EXPECTED DIFFERENCE EAST TO WEST.  DITTO FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.  THIS              
RESULTED IN A FEW DEGREE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITH THE TROUGH              
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD            
AID THE TEMPERATURE RISES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  MADE THIS THE WARMEST            
DAY.                                                                            
THE GFS IS NOW SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY                 
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE               
WESTERN TROUGH.  THIS RESULTS IN HIGHER WAVES DOWNSTREAM AND                    
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                
THE RESULT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA              
FASTER.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING UPWARD BY 6 HOURS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                
OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR THE                
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                       
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE                   
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR S SECTIONS OF FORECAST ARE WEST OF               
JANSEVILLE TO DARLINGTON.  BEST STORM WEST OF JANESVILLE PRBABLY                
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OF DEEPER LAKE INFLUENCE TO THE EAST. ALSO               
WEAK SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW            
10 THSD FT WHERE MESOETA HAS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RUC SOUNDINGS                
HAVE MUCH WEAKER CAP...WHICH IS ALOWING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS              
TO DEVELOP.  WET BULB ZERO RELATIVELY LOW...SO SOME SMALL HAIL                  
POSSIBLE.  AS EASTERLY FLOW AND LAKE AIR BECOMES MORE                           
ESTABLISHED...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.             
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BEOME DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOW              
CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER            
NEW 12Z GFS CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND...WITH MON SHRT WV CUTTING OFF            
OVER SRN IL...AND NRN BRANCH OF UPR JET WELL NORTH IN SRN CANADA.               
WITH ONLY A WEAK SFC TROF CROSSING THE STATE...WILL CONTINUE CHC                
POPS MAINLY WED/WED NIGHT.  THEN NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO GREAT            
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
247 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM:                                                                     
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST                   
AREA IS PROVIDING CLEAR CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH RELAXED              
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN NORMAL DIURNAL DRAINAGE WINDS EARLY              
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TODAY WITH                    
ADDITIONAL WARMING OF THE AIR MASS. SEVERAL WEAK WAVES NOTED IN WATER           
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND                 
CALIFORNIA. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE            
ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH TODAY. ENERGY MAY BRUSH NORTHEAST UTAH LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESULTING IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER             
THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT               
RETURN FLOW ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE TOWARD SOUTHWEST COLORADO LATE              
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ETA QPF FIELDS LOOK PARTICULARLY OVERDONE IN             
THIS RESPECT. WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS NEAR THE             
DIVIDE ACROSS WEST COLORADO TODAY AND THIS EVENING.                             
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL MONDAY. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO                 
THE RIDGE THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW FORMING OVER NEVADA MONDAY           
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DEPICTED             
ALONG THE WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER MONDAY AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY             
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT IT LOOKS LIKE SOME WEAK DYNAMIC            
FORCING MAY COME INTO PLAY FOR A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED STORMS WITH DRY SUB CLOUD               
LAYER FAVORING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. MORE CLOUDS MONDAY SHOULD TREND             
DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                  
LINDQUIST                                                                       
EXTENDED DISCUSSION:                                                            
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A DIRTY RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE AREA WITH                   
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA, BREAKING                 
THE RIDGE DOWN SOMEWHAT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, MOSTLY           
CONFINED TO ABOUT 600 MB AND ABOVE. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH-                
BASED, WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE               
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN DURING PERIODS OF MAXIMUM HEATING. 500 MB            
TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT AT AROUND -10C, SO LOOK FOR                
LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE CHANGE.                                           
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT, PARTIALLY              
ENHANCED BY THE FORMATION OF A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE COAST OF                     
CALIFORNIA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME A LITTLE DRIER, REDUCING THE             
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, BUT SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. BA/NL                       
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT             
TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/            
ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT                  
CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN            
VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER                
RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA.            
Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF              
THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN            
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING                 
ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL               
GA.                                                                             
.SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY              
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT              
VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE               
UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL             
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED            
BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA             
BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY               
HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN             
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES               
& EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT.            
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT            
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE.                   
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE.            
.MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF                  
WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON                 
FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY            
BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU.                                  
.FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES.                     
.EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF             
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD                
MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER             
PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN              
MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON              
THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/            
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY.                                                 
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20                                                    
DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
916 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS A TYPE 4 SEA BREEZE REGIME DAY              
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-700MB MEAN VECTOR WINDS SW UNDER             
10KT. MODIFIED SOUNDING (FOR A 92/71 PARCEL) SHOWS ADEQUATE                     
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WITH A CAPE OF 3420 J/KG AND AN LI AROUND            
-7. HOWEVER, AS ANTICIPATED, DRYING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH MOST OF THE            
COLUMN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PW DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF.            
THIS DRYING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF N             
FL AND S GA. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF PM                 
CONVECTION THAT WOULD BE TYPICAL WITH THIS FLOW REGIME. WORKSTATION             
ETA SHOWS BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE FOR TODAY WITH MAXIMA IN THE                   
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE AL.                                                      
.PUBLIC UPDATE...AFTER INSPECTING ISC GRIDS, WE WILL MODIFY TODAY'S             
POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WS ETA, AND NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT               
ANYWHERE. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS ADVERTISED.           
.MARINE...IT IS A TRANQUIL MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS             
ARE STILL OUT OF THE E, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SW LATER IN THE             
DAY.                                                                            
WOOL                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
*****************************************************************               
115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT             
TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/            
ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT                  
CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN            
VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER                
RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA.            
Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF              
THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN            
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING                 
ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL               
GA.                                                                             
.SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY              
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT              
VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE               
UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL             
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED            
BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA             
BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY               
HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN             
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES               
& EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT.            
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT            
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE.                   
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE.            
.MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF                  
WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON                 
FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY            
BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU.                                  
.FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES.                     
.EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF             
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD                
MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER             
PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN              
MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON              
THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/            
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY.                                                 
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20                                                    
DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1158 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
MIDMORNING LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE                   
CURRENTLY INCREASING. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW FAIRLY STATIONARY PATTERN            
ACROSS FA IN SHORT TERM...WITH IMPULSES PUSHING OUT OF WEAK                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED             
TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EFFICIENT            
RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO              
RIDE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY.                  
HIGH POPS IN MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD. UPDATE REQUIRED THOUGH TO               
REMOVE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IS TO                 
NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS A CATEGORY.                             
.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES.                                                    
MCLANE                                                                          
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW                                                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
304 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF              
OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
SUPPORT HAS BEEN A NEMESIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION IS STILL               
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48              
HOURS. PW'S CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM            
PREVIOUS RAINS AND EVEN WEAKER STEERING WINDS PROGGED FOR                       
TODAY...FEEL THAT FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR ALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW COUNTIES HAVE ESCAPED SOME OF THE HEAVIER                  
RAINFALL...WOULD RATHER PLAY IT SAFE AND COVER ALL THE BASES                    
TODAY...AS ANY PARTICULAR AREA COULD EASILY EXCEED FFG VALUES WITH              
SLOW MOVING STORMS.                                                             
MONDAY INVOLVES MORE OF THE SAME...WITH MAIN ORGANIZED AREAS                    
OF CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE LUMBERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL VARY               
POPS FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY             
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF 5H              
LOW WHICH HELPS INITIATE SOME DECENT ASCENT. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE              
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW PRESSURE HELPS BRING EXISTING FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. ETA DOESN'T DEVELOP THE 5H LOW AS MUCH AND ALSO            
CARRIES IT FURTHER SOUTH. GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD ORGANIZED SHOTS OF                
PRECIPITATION AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ONLY                    
AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY TOUCHY HYDRO SITUATION. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR             
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO BARES WATCHING AS IT             
UNFOLDS.                                                                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
1045 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
EVENING UPDATE.  NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS SO FOR UPDATE               
IFPS WILL DO ALL OF THE WORK.  HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG.  UPDATE OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
OUDEMAN                                                                         
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
117 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS RAIN CHANCES...THREAT OF ISOLATED HEAVY                  
RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.                                        
AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD THE ETA AND GFS INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE              
NGM. THE NGM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PUSHING THE               
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA. NGM IS LEAST LIKELY OF ALL                   
SOLUTIONS...AND WILL BE DISREGARDED. ETA STILL THE SLOWEST WITH                 
FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AT 12Z SUNDAY ALL 3 MODELS SHOW SFC WAVE ALONG                
FRONT NEAR BOWLING GREEN KY. ETA SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE BEST              
AND IN MOST CONSISTENT MANNER AS IT MOVES IT EAST ALONG                         
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS TRIES TO DRIVE LOW AND FRONT             
SOUTHEAST. LITTLE IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PUSH OF            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND FEEL ETA IS BEST SOLUTION.                               
WITH THIS IN MIND...THE SFC FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY INTO            
THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAK IT SHOULD SERVE            
AS FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN OUR CWA. WITH ABUNDANT                    
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                      
CONTINUES. EVEN AT 00Z TUESDAY THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR OR JUST TO            
THE SOUTH OF CWFA.                                                              
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS IN PLACE OVER AREAS               
THROUGH 60 HOURS. DECREASING WIND PROFILE FROM TODAY INTO TONIGHT               
AND SUNDAY DECREASES SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT INCREASES FLASH FLOOD            
THREAT AS STORMS WILL BECOME SLOWER IN MOVEMENT OVER TIME. AT THIS              
TIME WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT MAY STILL ISSUE ONE               
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO            
BE A DAILY THREAT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.                                    
SBH                                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
TEMPS REMAIN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. IN ALL...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON             
TRACK.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER                  
CENTRAL ONTARIO. A SHORTWAVE IS TRYING TO UNDER CUT THE RIDGE AND IS            
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A                
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE MAINE...AND ANOTHER IS IN THE NORTHERN              
PACIFIC...AROUND 145W. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYS THE                    
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER                
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO                 
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING AND IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAKOTAS. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT                
LAKES IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.                          
THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE             
SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL TREK SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER KMSP            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. UNDER PLENTY OF SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB              
TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. TRAJECTORY FORECAST SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS.            
HOWEVER...LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS AROUND 37F. THE               
DIFFERENCES OF LAND AND LAKE TEMPERATURE SHOULD GENERATE LAKE                   
BREEZES TODAY. THE LAKE BREEZES WILL KICK IN AND LOWER TEMPERATURES             
QUICKLY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR INLAND AND HOW             
FAST THIS COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. THE GOING FORECASTS LOOK                     
REASONABLE AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO. WILL UPDATE MAINLY FOR                    
WORDING.                                                                        
DLG                                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1020 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
ANOTHER UPDATE COMING FOR THE AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE REFLECTING TREND            
OF DISSIPATING SC DECK VIA DIURNAL MIXING AND CONTINUED DRY                     
ADVECTION FROM HIGH TO THE NORTH. LATEST RUC T/TD DEPRESSION PROGS              
CAPTURE THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LAYER OF CLOUDS WHICH                 
BLANKETED OUR CWA EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR EARLY TODAY. THIS DECK              
WILL MIX OUT...BUT RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE AND SFC BASED HEATING WILL            
POP FAIR WX CU DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. RUC SHOWS T/TD SPREADS                  
WIDENING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SO DESPITE SOME CLOUDS...ORIGINAL             
FCST OF MOSTLY SUNNY WILL FINALLY WORK OUT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD SO ONLY             
OTHER CHANGES WILL BE TO TWEEK HOURLY TEMP/TD TRACES AND WIND FIELDS.           
BREWSTER                                                                        
----- 725 AM DISCUSSION -----                                                   
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT A CLOUDY FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING IN              
NERN ZONES.   PRETTY SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK SEEN ON VIS SAT.  LOOKS               
LIKE IT MIGHT HAVE ITS ORIGINS IN LK ONTARIO.  CURRENTLY THINKING               
IT/LL LIKELY DISPERSE BY MID MORNING AFTER THE SUN GETS THE MIXING              
PROCESS GOING.  NO OTHER CHANGES.  MJC                                          
----- 228 AM DISCUSSION -----                                                   
BIG PICTURE...SHALLOW OMEGA TYPE PATTERN WILL NUDGES POLEWARD OVER              
THE NEXT 72 HOURS...TRANSITIONING THE NERN US FROM NW TO ZONAL                  
FLOW.  WAVES BEGIN TO AMPLIFY PATTERN THEREAFTER...WITH TROUGH                  
DEVELOPING OVER ERN THIRD OF CANADA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO             
THE NE.                                                                         
ALL INDICATORS POINT TO A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THRU AT            
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  CWA WILL INITIALLY SIT UNDER 500             
MB NW FLOW WHICH WILL GRADUALLY CHAGE TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW....WITH              
CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP AS WELL.  SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALSO BE                   
ENHANCED BY AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN VICINTIY OF 250 MB JET ENTRY            
REGION...WITH THE UVV MAX REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH.  ALL THIS                
WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY.  EXPECT               
SCT CU TO FORM TODAY...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL LL                       
MOISTURE...AND MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS...ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT TO THE               
S...SPILLING INTO NE PA.                                                        
MACHINE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY COMING IN A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN                 
PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND...SO WILL LET THE                   
FORECAST FOLLOW AND BUMP MAXES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.  WILL BE                   
LEANING TOWARD A COMBO OF MAV AND PREV FORECAST.                                
WILL BE SPEEDING UP THE ARRIVAL CLOUDS ON WED...AND ADDING PRECIP IN            
FOR WED NIGHT.  BOTH 00Z ETA AND GFS NOW ON SAME PAGE AS TO 500 MB              
WAVE DIGGING INTO OH VLY.  WILL ALSO ADJUST TEMPS DOWN ON WED DUE TO            
INCREASED CLOUD COVER.                                                          
WRKZON SOON...PLAN ON ZONES FLYING AROUND 3.                                    
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
CEMPA                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1010 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
FEW SHWRS OVR THE CSTL SXNS OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET CNTS THIS AM.                
THEY APPR TO BE WKNG SUMWHAT. CRRNT SFC ANAL SHWS FNT IN CNTRL VA               
THIS AM. WK PUSH BHND FNT AND 3HR PRES CHGS XPCT FRNT TO DROP INTO              
NRN SXNS BY MID AFTN. RUC INDICATING SEABRZ SHWRS WL START ARND NOON            
WI FRNTL SHWRS ASSOCTD WI FROPA. LI/S ALRDY ARND -5 WI CAPE ARND                
3000 THIS AM. PW/S AT 1.8 INCHES ON THIS MORNS RAOB. CRRNT FCST TRND            
LUKS FINE BUT WL UPDAT GRPHX TO QUICKR WRM UP AND FOR TIMG OF FRNT.             
MARINE: CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS OK FOR SHORT TERM SCENARIO...BUT HAVE             
DEEP RESERVATIONS FOR NORTHERN LEG WATERS ONLY ADVERTISED TO RISE TO            
MARGINAL SCEC STATUS BY TUESDAY WITH BRISK NE TO E FLOW. NWW3 AND               
VARIOUS PRIVATE WAVE MODEL OUTPUT SHOW SEAS RISING MUCH GREATER (AT             
LEAST TO 6-8 FT) THAN THE ADVERTISED FIVE. HATTERAS 0-20NM CORRIDOR             
WATERS COMBINED WITH A TIGHT NE TO E GRADIENT FROM COMBO 1027MB HIGH            
OFF CAPE COD AND EXITING WEST ATLANTIC 1014MB LOW USUALLY PRODUCE               
ONE HECK OF A BUMPY RIDE FOR BOATERS AND A BIG CHOPPY MESS FOR                  
SURFERS. IN LIGHT OF PREVIOUS MARINE FORECASTER LOOKING AT THE SAME             
MODEL DATA I'M LOOKING AT...WILL COUNT TO TEN AND LET NEWER MODEL               
DATA ROLL OFF THE PRESS TO DIGEST AND DISCUSS MATTERS WITH ONCOMING             
MARINE PERSONNEL FOR LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. LOOKING FURTHER DOWN               
THE WEEKDAY MARINE LINE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON REMNANTS OF               
TD#2 THAT IS TRYING TO GET ACT TOGETHER UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE                  
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAN IT HAD TO DEAL WITH SEVERAL DAYS AGO.              
IT HAS MOVED WEST OF THE WINDWARD/SOUTH AMERICAN COAST TO A CURRENT             
POSITION MIDWAY BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE               
GFS DEVELOPS THE MASS INTO A LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK             
AND MOVES IT ACROSS N FLORIDA AND UP THE EAST COAST FRIDAY. THIS                
MODEL SCENARIO IS FAR FROM SET IN STONE. YESTERDAY RUNS HAD SAME LOW            
EXITING OVER S FLORIDA THEN TRAVELING NE AND WELL EAST OF COAST                 
TOWARD CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN ANY EVENT...NWW3 BUYING THE "BUILDING             
SEAS/WINDS" ASPECT TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK FOR OUR CWF AREA. ONCE               
AGAIN...NWW3 HAS A MUCH HIGHER RPM OUTPUT THAN OUR 4-5 FT RANGE                 
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR AFORMENTIONED TIME FRAME TIME AND FUTURE               
MODEL OUTPUT WILL TELL.                                                         
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
CGG-G/GC                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
940 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
OH WELL...SO MUCH FOR A DRY FATHERS DAY.                                        
SHOWERS PERSIST FROM NR RICHMOND TO DAYTON TO CIRCLEVILLE IN                    
DEFORMATION ZONE.  6Z ETA AND RUC ARE SHOWING THAT WEAK PVA                     
PERSISTS INTO AFTERNOON.  WILL EXTEND MENTION OF SHOWERS INTO                   
AFTERNOON IN THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS.  WILL SPLIT UP                   
CENTRAL OHIO EVEN MORE AND WILL ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS IN                       
PICKAWAY...FAIRFIELD...ETC.                                                     
WILL ALSO CLEAN UP WORDING FARTHER SOUTH...THAT IS MENTIONING MAINLY            
AFTERNOON.  WITH ON GOING PCPN WILL LEAVE NO TIMING.                            
AFTER LOOKING AT MORNING SOUNDING...STILL LOOKS LIKE UPPER 70S ARE              
POSSIBLE SO NO CHANGE THERE.                                                    
CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
.ILN...                                                                         
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT KYZ089>090-094>100.                           
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT OHZ079-081>082-088.                           
SITES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
********************************************************************            
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
...MORNING UPDATE...                                                            
NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  A LARGE AREA OF RAIN             
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS INDICATED ON THE RADAR.  THE RUC SHOWING A                
SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHICH                 
SPELLS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK.             
THE ONGOING FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SO NO UPDATE PLANNED.                        
.RLX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES                        
WVZ005>011...WVZ013>020...WVZ024>040...WVZ046>047.                              
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES VAZ003>004.              
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES                          
KYZ101>103...KYZ105.                                                            
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ZONES                          
OHZ075>076...OHZ083>087.                                                        
.END/ELW                                                                        
********************************************************************            
400 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                                            
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING IN            
COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND                   
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE               
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE                    
ACTIVITY.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 3 AM EXTENDED FROM NEAR LOUISVILLE TO            
CINCINNATI...NORTHEASTWARD TO PARKERSBURG AND JUST SOUTH OF                     
MORGANTOWN.                                                                     
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF CWA AND                 
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER ALREADY                 
SATURATED AREAS THAT HAD FLOODING...HAVE EXTENDED FLOOD WATCH TO                
INCLUDE ENTIRE CWA WITH EXCEPTION OF PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN               
OHIO AS THEY REMAIN NORTH OF FRONT AND HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH RAIN YET.             
WENT WITH WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY ONGOING                    
CONVECTION INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING UPWARDS OF 1            
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS REGION AND WILL BE GOING              
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SOUTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH LIKELY                    
ELSEWHERE.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES WHERE 50            
POP WILL BE EMPLOYED.                                                           
AS BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWER POPS              
TOWARDS DAWN BUT START THE PERIOD LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH.  AS FOR                  
TEMPS...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY AS MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL            
EXIST WITH HIGHS IN 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN 60S.                     
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                      
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.  FOR MOST OF THIS TIME                   
PERIOD...CWA REMAINS UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A WEAK                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ALSO STALLS               
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY BACK NORTH              
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL             
RIDE OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION.              
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL FRIDAY UNTIL A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT              
OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH...THUS                
ENDING THE WET AND MUGGY PERIOD.                                                
HC/JMV                                                                          
********************************************************************            
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
...EVENING UPDATE...                                                            
ISSUING UPDATE TO GET RID OF THE MENTION OF FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME             
SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF             
WEST VIRGINIA.  THIS FLOOD WATCH WAS ORIGINALLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 10             
PM EDT.  FLOOD WATCH STILL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN                    
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                  
NIGHT.  CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERAL AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY              
RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  MUCH OF THE ATTENTION IS NOW                   
FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE ALMOST                 
STATIONARY WEST TO EAST LINE OF SHOWERS.  THINGS ARE QUICKLY                    
WEAKENING AS THE DAYTIME HEATING GOES AWAY.                                     
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES EXPECTED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.                           
KF                                                                              
********************************************************************            
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...                                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT               
THROUGH SUNDAY.  A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS               
THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A              
TAD FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.            
...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                        
FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR EASTERN               
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA.                                                      
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                                
MODEL OF CHOICE DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD SEEMS TO BE THE GFS.                  
SUMMER IS UPON US...WITH THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION                     
REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  OPTIMISTIC FORECAST ON TAP               
FOR THE DAYS 6.5 AND 7...WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND OVERALL LESS ABUNDANT            
MOISTURE.                                                                       
.END/ ELW/JS/KF                                                                 
********************************************************************            
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY: AFTER A SUNNY MORNING A GOOD CU FIELD HAS PICKED UP THIS             
AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT IN THE            
FL AND AL ZONES. TEMPS HAVE REACHED 90ISH FOR MOST AREAS AND WILL               
LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW THAT FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON DUE TO               
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FILL IN            
FOR THE REST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NE                
THROUGH TENNESSEE...WHILE THE BERMUDA HIGH KEEPS A E-W ORIENTED                 
RIDGE OVER FLA CONTINUING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STATES. A            
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY             
OVER LA AND MISS. AND MOVE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES DURING               
THE WEEK.  AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL LOW IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF            
JAMAICA AND IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MID WEEK.              
12Z RUN OF GFS MOVES THE LOW DIRECTLY AT THE FL PANHANDLE...AND BY              
LATE THURS TRACKING OVER THE FL BIG BEND. HPC DIRECTS THIS LOW MORE             
TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND AND SOONER. THE TIMING...FROM GFS AND                   
HPC...OF THIS LOW MOVING INTO FL HAS FLIP FLOPPED BETWEEN WED TO                
THURSDAY TIME FRAME...SO EXACT TIMING OF THIS LOW (IF IT CAN HOLD               
TOGETHER) IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN. EITHER WAY..THE MID TO END OF THE               
WORK WEEK SHOULD SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER.                                         
THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT/MID TERM REMAINS THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME              
PATTERN...BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND IN THE            
AFTERNOONS AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS                
COULD BE SEEN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP. OVER GULF.                          
MARINE: SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE N GULF.                     
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COULD SEE WINDS AND                
SEAS PICK UP MID TO END OF THE WEEK. WILL BEGIN TO BRING UP AND BACK            
THE WINDS BUT REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY             
OF THIS BROAD SYSTEM.                                                           
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS                                                            
EXTENDED: AS MENTIONED BEFORE THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT             
ON WHERE, WHEN, AND HOW THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AT THE END OF THE              
WEEK. TEMPS COULD BE HELD DOWN SOME...WINDS UP AND OBVIOUSLY RAIN               
CHANCES DIFFERENT. PLANNING TO BUMP UP THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR MID               
WEEK FOR COASTAL AREAS, FL AND EAST GA ZONES BASED A BLEND OF HPC               
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. LOOKING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...KEEPING NEAR CLIMO             
WITH TEMPS (MAX-LOW 90S, MIN-MID TO LOW 70S) AND DAYTIME POPS (30 TO            
40).                                                                            
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 71 92 73 89 / 20 40 20 50                                                   
PFN 76 89 77 88 / 20 30 20 50                                                   
DHN 72 92 73 89 / 20 40 20 50                                                   
ABY 72 92 72 89 / 20 40 20 50                                                   
VLD 72 93 72 91 / 20 40 20 50                                                   
CTY 72 92 72 90 / 20 40 20 50                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BOLINSKI                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.***********************************************             
.OVERVIEW...12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS A TYPE 4 SEA BREEZE REGIME DAY              
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-700MB MEAN VECTOR WINDS SW UNDER             
10KT. MODIFIED SOUNDING (FOR A 92/71 PARCEL) SHOWS ADEQUATE                     
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION WITH A CAPE OF 3420 J/KG AND AN LI AROUND            
-7. HOWEVER, AS ANTICIPATED, DRYING HAS OCCURRED THROUGH MOST OF THE            
COLUMN SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PW DOWN TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF.            
THIS DRYING IS ALSO EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF N             
FL AND S GA. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF PM                 
CONVECTION THAT WOULD BE TYPICAL WITH THIS FLOW REGIME. WORKSTATION             
ETA SHOWS BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE FOR TODAY WITH MAXIMA IN THE                   
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND SE AL.                                                      
.PUBLIC UPDATE...AFTER INSPECTING ISC GRIDS, WE WILL MODIFY TODAY'S             
POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT WS ETA, AND NO MORE THAN 10 PERCENT               
ANYWHERE. 850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AS ADVERTISED.           
.MARINE...IT IS A TRANQUIL MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS             
ARE STILL OUT OF THE E, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO SW LATER IN THE             
DAY.                                                                            
WOOL                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
*****************************************************************               
115 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGES/RUC H5 COMPOSITE CONTINUES TO DEPICT             
TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX W/            
ILL-DEFINED LOW INVOF OF RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE PROMINENT VORT                  
CENTERS SEEN OVER NW TX & SW AR...W/ WEAKER VORTS DOWNSTREAM OVER TN            
VALLEY & CAROLINAS. SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER                
RIDGE OVER WRN ATLANTIC WORKING ITS WAY WWD TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA.            
Q-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. S OF              
THIS FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOIST/UNSTABLE. LOCAL 88D SHOWS DECREASE IN            
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION...W/ A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS ONGOING                 
ALONG/OFFSHORE OF FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL               
GA.                                                                             
.SHORT TERM...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE TO THE E WILL TEMPORARILY              
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LOWER PWAT              
VALUES. MOS GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS TREND W/ LOWER POPS TODAY. THE               
UPPER HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO THE TROUGH/WEAKNESS ON MON...WHICH WILL             
INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG STALLED            
BOUNDARY OVER LA LATE MON...THEN MOVES INTO AL BY TUE AFTN. THE SEA             
BREEZE REGIME (MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW S-SW 5-10 KTS) FAVORS SLIGHTLY               
HIGHER POPS OVER SE AL/FL BIG BEND/SW GA TODAY & MON. ON TUE...MEAN             
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SW 10 KTS...COMBINED W/ HIGHER PWAT VALUES               
& EFFECTS OF SURFACE WAVE TO NW WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT.            
TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY UNDER RIDGE TODAY & MON W/ LOWER 90S EXCEPT            
UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY IN 70-75 RANGE.                   
INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PCPN COVERAGE WILL KEEP IN 85-90 RANGE ON TUE.            
.MARINE...AS THE CENTER OF BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED E OF                  
WATERS...EXPECT SLY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS THRU TUE. DEPENDING ON                 
FUTURE TRACK/STRENGTH OF TROPICAL SYSTEM IN NW CARRIBEAN...WINDS MAY            
BACK AROUND TO THE E/SE & INCREASE ON WED/THU.                                  
.FIRE WX...NO REQUIREMENTS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH RH VALUES.                     
.EXTENDED...NO SIG CHANGE. WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF             
THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS NWWD                
MOTION & STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM...THE LATTER             
PERIOD POPS/WINDS/TEMPS MAY BE IMPACTED. GFS SHOWS SIG INCREASE IN              
MEAN LAYER RH BEGINNING ON WED & SPREADING NNE ACROSS PENINSULA ON              
THU. NONETHELESS...THE UNSETTLED SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE W/            
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS EACH DAY.                                                 
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 92 71 92 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
PFN 89 74 88 75/ 20 10 30 20                                                    
DHN 90 72 90 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
ABY 91 71 92 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
VLD 93 70 93 71/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
CTY 92 71 91 72/ 30 20 40 20                                                    
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVER CENTRAL CONUS.  BOUNDARY IS STILL IN              
THE VICINITY...NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  RADAR IS LIT UP LIKE A                     
CHRISTMAS TREE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION IN A TROPICAL-TYPE                     
AIRMASS.  DO NOT SEE ANY REASON THAT WE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO HAVE               
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS WITH THE                
FRONT NEARBY. NOT MUCH MORE TO MENTION UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.              
WIND PROFILE IS WEAK...PWS HIGH...BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND DECENT WAVES            
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY WILL COMBINE TO GIVE US A CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN              
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS.  THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED FFA FOR THE              
REST OF THE NIGHT.  ENSEMBLES ARE PUSHING FRONT THROUGH BY                      
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FINALLY.  WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE                
WEEKEND...DESPITE GFS TRYING TO BRING IN SOME QPF ON SUNDAY WITH                
WAA.                                                                            
.JKL...FFA ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM.                                           
HEINLEIN                                                                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
1158 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
MIDMORNING LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT RADAR SHOWS COVERAGE                   
CURRENTLY INCREASING. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW FAIRLY STATIONARY PATTERN            
ACROSS FA IN SHORT TERM...WITH IMPULSES PUSHING OUT OF WEAK                     
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED             
TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY...BUT WITH GROUND ALREADY SATURATED EFFICIENT            
RUNOFF CAN BE EXPECTED. WILL THEREFORE LET FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO              
RIDE. FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PIKE COUNTY.                  
HIGH POPS IN MORNING PACKAGE LOOK GOOD. UPDATE REQUIRED THOUGH TO               
REMOVE MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE ONLY ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IS TO                 
NORTHERN ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS A CATEGORY.                             
.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES.                                                    
MCLANE                                                                          
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW                                                     
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
304 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
CURRENT SFC MAP FEATURES STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF              
OUR AREA. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
SUPPORT HAS BEEN A NEMESIS THE PAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTION IS STILL               
CURRENTLY ONGOING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO                  
ADVERTISE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48              
HOURS. PW'S CONTINUE TO RUN VERY HIGH AND WITH SATURATED GROUND FROM            
PREVIOUS RAINS AND EVEN WEAKER STEERING WINDS PROGGED FOR                       
TODAY...FEEL THAT FLOOD WATCH IS NECESSARY FOR ALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW COUNTIES HAVE ESCAPED SOME OF THE HEAVIER                  
RAINFALL...WOULD RATHER PLAY IT SAFE AND COVER ALL THE BASES                    
TODAY...AS ANY PARTICULAR AREA COULD EASILY EXCEED FFG VALUES WITH              
SLOW MOVING STORMS.                                                             
MONDAY INVOLVES MORE OF THE SAME...WITH MAIN ORGANIZED AREAS                    
OF CONVECTION FOLLOWING THE LUMBERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL VARY               
POPS FROM LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTH. TUESDAY             
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS GFS DEVELOPS A CUTOFF 5H              
LOW WHICH HELPS INITIATE SOME DECENT ASCENT. 850 MB WINDS INCREASE              
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AND LOW PRESSURE HELPS BRING EXISTING FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH. ETA DOESN'T DEVELOP THE 5H LOW AS MUCH AND ALSO            
CARRIES IT FURTHER SOUTH. GFS HAS PRETTY GOOD ORGANIZED SHOTS OF                
PRECIPITATION AS WAVES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD ONLY                    
AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY TOUCHY HYDRO SITUATION. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR             
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS SCENARIO BARES WATCHING AS IT             
UNFOLDS.                                                                        
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
1045 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
EVENING UPDATE.  NOT TOO MANY CHANGES MADE TO GRIDS SO FOR UPDATE               
IFPS WILL DO ALL OF THE WORK.  HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG.  UPDATE OUT               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
OUDEMAN                                                                         
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1242 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...WITH THE WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING               
SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. ISOLATED LIGHTNING           
STRIKES ARE JUST STARTING TO SHOW...SO WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADD SCATTERED       
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST.                                                  
.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION                
EARLY TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS            
UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN            
SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE STATE LATER                
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
JUST MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE OTHERWISE               
TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED...                              
HEALTHY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROTATING SEWRD ACROSS S CENTRAL QUEBEC             
PER LATEST SAT PIX AND THIS RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LINE OF                   
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE SEAWAY PER BUFCAN RADAR... MODELS                
SIMILAR IN SWING THIS SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LOW SE ACROSS THE CWA                
LATER THIS AM AND THEN E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREAFTER                
...NICE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDS              
THRU WED.                                                                       
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY W/ BEST CHANCE EXPECTED THRU            
THE AM HOURS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW             
AND POTENT SHORT WAVE SHIFT E OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL DECREASE                
TONIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING.  PARTLY            
CLOUDY CONDITIONS NORTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH EXPECTED TO THEN                 
PREVAIL THRU WED.  HAVE KEPT SHOWERS GOING LATE WED NIGHT W/                    
APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT BUT DROPPED MENTION OF TSTMS GIVEN TIME OF               
DAY AND TO BETTER MATCH UP W/ GYX...                                            
MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING...HOWEVER            
WILL KEEP SCA FOR SEAS THIS MORNING DUE TO SWELL FIELD EXTENDING                
FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. WILL GO SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE WAVE WATCH III FOR HEIGHTS. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY            
LATER THIS MORNING.                                                             
AVIATION...BRING SHOWERS IN FOR CAR BETWEEN 10 AND 18Z. WILL CARRY              
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 00Z FOR CAR AND HUL. IN BGR WILL CARRY IFR                
CEILING THROUGH 12Z THEN MVFR THROUGH 19Z.                                      
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
JAH/CALDERON                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
312 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
...FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES...                         
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM TRENDS...                                                   
500 MB PROFILER PLOTS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK              
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS.  18Z LAPS CAPE                  
VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES RANGED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.             
BY MID-AFTERNOON...THIS INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER DISTURBANCE                   
COMBINED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS                   
HOWELL...SHANNON...AND OREGON COUNTIES.                                         
DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL GO 30 TO POSSIBLY             
40 POPS WITH SCATTERED WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A                   
BRANSON TO EMINENCE LINE.  WILL ALSO KEEP AN ISOLATED CHANCE (20                
POPS) ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO ROLLA LINE.  THE RUC40                     
1000-700MB DEWPOINT FIELD SHOWS A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST            
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL WITH AN                
ENHANCED AREA ON WATER VAPOR.  WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                         
HEATING...ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.            
SHOULD SEE NEARLY A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE             
LINGERS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S             
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER.  ON              
TUESDAY...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST             
AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE            
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                        
EXTENDED...                                                                     
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  IN            
ADDITION...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE                   
OZARKS.  WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT             
FOR THESE FEATURES.                                                             
WILL KEEP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW.  GFS AND MEX GUIDANCE                
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION....AS THE                 
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE               
850 MB WINDS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE BOUNDARY LOOK                    
UNIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.                                                      
.SGF...                                                                         
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
255 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
UNSTBL AMS THIS AFTN WI ISOLD SHWRS POPPG UP UNDR WK UPR LVL                    
DSTRBNC. UNMOD CAPES ARND 2000 THIS AM...MODIFIED CAPES FOR THIS                
AFTN ARND 5000. WET BLB ZEROS ABV 12000 AND NOT MUCH SHR IN                     
PROFILE...SO DONT XPCT ANY SVR.                                                 
CDFNT STL IN SRN VA ERLY THIS AFTN. RUC SHOWS FNT INTO CWA BY MID               
AFTN AND CUTTING CWA IN HALF ARND SS. GUD OMEGA ASSOCTD WI FRNT. GFS            
TIMING IS FASTER THAN ETA...MR IN LINE WI RUC. GFS DROPS FRNT SLOWLY            
THRU CWA AND FINALLY S OF CWA BY MON EVE. WI UPR LVL FLO PARALLEL TO            
FRNT THIS SLOW MVMNT SEEMS REASONABLE. FNT MKS IT MV BACK N TUE NGT             
WI RTRN TO SW FLO OVR CWA BY WED AFTN. UPR LVL LO RMNS OVR THE                  
TX...LA...MO AREA THRU THE WK SHOOTING PIECES OF ENERGY TO THE EAST             
AND OVR ECST. LOTS OF DP LYR MSTR AND FNT JUST TO OUR S WL KP CHCS              
OVR CWA THRU THE WK.                                                            
GFS BRINGS A STG SFC LO FRM THE GLFMX TO OVR ECST BY FRI. CONFIDENCE            
IS FAIR AT HPC WI THIS SOLN SO WL GO WI IT.                                     
IN THE XTNDD RNG...SFC RDG BLDG OVR AREA BY THE WKEND. NOT REAL                 
CONFIDENT IN MRF SOLN BY THE END OF THE PD AS IT HAS SFC RDG BUT STG            
UPR LVL TROF OVR THE ECST. ANY PSBL PROBS WL BE AFT FP. WL LUK AT               
GFS XTNDD GRAPHX ON INTERNET WHEN THEY BCM AVBL TO SEE HOW THINGS               
ARE SHAPING UP.                                                                 
MARINE: MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST CONCERNS WINDS/SEAS N OF FRONT.            
GNRLY FOLLOWING GFS POSITION OF FRONT AND THIS SEEMS TO MESH WELL               
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. EVEN IF WINDS STAY BLO GFS VALUES...WUD               
STILL EXPECT LONG E/NE FETCH AROUND HI TO BUILD SEAS ALONG OUR                  
WTRS...SO WL HAVE SEAS BLDG TO SCA CRITERIA MON NT N OF HAT...>=6FT             
HAT TO LOOKOUT ON TUE...AND WL STAY BLO SCA WITH THIS S OF LOOKOUT.             
AFTER FRONT LIFTS BACK N MIDWEEK...SEAS SHUD SETTLE A BIT. WL THEN              
HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON SYSTEM COMING OUT OF GMEX...AS LATEST GFS              
BRINGS THIS LOW TO THE SRN NC COAST BY 12Z FRI...ALONG WITH ITS                 
ASSOC WINDS AND SEAS.                                                           
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
CGG/NMP                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
255 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...SHORT RANGE - CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LONG RANGE - THE AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN            
THAT ALLOWS WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE               
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.                 
DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWS AN AXIS OF THETA-E EXTENDING FROM               
KALO-KEAU.  THIS WHERE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE GREATEST                   
AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE INSTABILITY              
CONTINUES TO BUILD /LAPS CAPES 1500+ J/KG...GOES LI 5+/.  WATER                 
VAPOR DEPICTING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST            
AREA.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOUNDATION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  WITH THAT SAID...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE               
INHIBITOR NOW IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN THE GOES               
SOUNDINGS AND BY THE 15/18Z RUC.  AT 850 MB...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED            
TO 5-8C TODAY.  THIS IS LESS THAN SATURDAY BY A GOOD 5 DEGREES.                 
FROM THESE DATA...THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE                
FROM KLSE-KEAU WHERE THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850 MB MOISTURE EXISTS.                
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF THETA-E REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN            
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE IN               
THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                          
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFIES.  THIS              
ALLOWS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA               
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.  THE SPEED OF THIS              
CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPED UP BY THE                
GFS.  THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREES WITH A SOLUTION FASTER THAN THE GFS              
FOR WEDNESDAY.  THIS AGREES WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...SO WILL AGAIN              
MOVE UP THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE 6-12 HOURS...CLOSER TO THE                  
TIMING OF THE FASTER ETA.  THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
BEING INTRODUCED TUESDAY AND REMOVED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.             
FORCING REMAINS WEAK WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES            
LOW AT THIS TIME.                                                               
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSITIVE ANOMALY IN THE 850 MB            
TEMPERATURE FIELD NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS ANOMALY IS 2 STANDARD                     
DEVIATIONS OVER THE MEAN TEMPERATURE.  DEDUCE FROM THIS THAT                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL.  THEREFORE...AM FORECASTING            
TEMPERATURES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.  MOREOVER...TIMING OF THE NEXT                 
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT.  ENSEMBLES FAVOR A                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.  SEE NO                  
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS...SO PUSHED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND                     
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK ABOUT 12 HOURS.                           
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
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