AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
210 PM MDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)                                                          
...MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES...                                   
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A               
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND               
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN               
REGION ATTM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING MINOR EMBEDDED                
WAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ATTM.                
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING SNOW COVER PERSISTING ACROSS               
PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DVD REGION AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST MTS...THE             
RATON MESA AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE PURGATOIRE RIVER                  
BASIN. SNOW COVER ALSO APPARENT IN SFC OBS WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES            
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS AND IN THE 50S            
TO LOWER 60S ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                      
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT MODERATES             
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN BUILDS INTO THE FOUR               
CORNERS REGION. MINOR EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE FLOW LOOK TO ONLY KEEP              
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE            
PERIOD. WARM AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO MOVE            
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO BETWEEN +2C AND              
+6C BY 00Z SUNDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE AOB GUIDANCE LOWS FOR                    
TONIGHT...AS DRY AIR...WEAK WINDS AND SNOW COVER TO ALLOW FOR GOOD              
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE TEMPERED HIGHS FOR SATURDAY                 
ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE GOOD                   
MELTING ON SATURDAY. -MW                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUN THROUGH FRI)                                                               
...SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AND SNOW MELT CONTINUES SUN...                     
...SHALLOW COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO MON NIGHT...                   
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION                   
PATTERN TO CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. H7 TEMPERATURES WARM TO                 
+6C TO +8C ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A                 
STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING AT 6K-9K FT MSL ALONG OUR EASTERN                   
MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT. TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS IN THE DIGITAL FORECAST              
DATABASE. WITH STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON                      
SUN...WARM AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. MAXIMUM               
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO SHOULD BE COMMON.                   
CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ON MORE                   
WATER...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING               
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MON AND MON NIGHT...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND               
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.              
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER MILD AND              
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TOWARDS MON NIGHT...A                
MORE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN JET STREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE                 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.                
GFS...DGEX AND ECMWF ARE HAVING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE              
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN CO MON NIGHT. HINTS OF SOME LOW              
GRADE MOISTURE...SO WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS WITH THE HIGHER END OF              
THE LOW POPS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.                                       
TUE AND WED...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE SHALLOW COLD FRONT SHOULD                
NOT MAKE IT FURTHER WEST INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH                   
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. IT WILL LIKELY BACKUP INTO OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS              
AND MAKE FOR CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES               
TUE AND WED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL LIKELY BE 15-25 DEGREES                    
COLDER THAN MON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE AND WED COULD BE EVEN                    
COLDER IF STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TOUGH               
CALL THIS FAR OUT. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY INCLUDING LOW                    
GRADE MOISTURE. AS TYPICAL WITH THIS PATTERN...THE SAN LUIS                     
VALLEY AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY MIGHT BE THE WARMER SPOTS THESE                
DAYS. ADDED SOME VERY LOW POPS WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE LOW POPS              
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARDS PIKES PEAK.                                 
THU AND FRI...WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.               
THE CP AIR MASS SHOULD RECEDE FROM EASTERN CO...SO MODERATING                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE OFFING. METZE                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1025 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...                                   
RADAR AND FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVERGENT LINE OF            
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF GRAND BAHAMA AND BAHAMA BANKS ACROSS              
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND FROM INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN COUNTY              
(TREASURE COAST). RADAR INDICATING WHAT MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES                  
FALLING OUT OF THE STRATOCU DECK COMING ASHORE JUPITER INLET TO FORT            
PIERCE AND VERO BEACH. SATELLITE CLOUD MOTION TRENDS AND LATEST RUC             
AND WRF_NMM8 MODEL RUNS INDICATE CONVERGENT LINE(S)WILL CONTINUE TO             
OCCUR OVER THE TREASURE/SPACE COASTS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.               
FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE...SHOWERS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE              
COASTAL WATERS AND WILL ADD SPRINKLES TO THE TREASURE COAST.                    
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES               
EXPECTED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND                 
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. BASED UPON 06Z MODEL OUTPUT AND NEW SPC                
DAY 1 SVR OUTLOOK (SLGT RISK NORTH OF SRQ-MCO-TTS) WILL HEIGHTEN                
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM LAKE...ORANGE...NORTH BREVARD                 
COUNTY NORTH. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THE               
INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE BUT THE FORECAST LOW LEVEL SHEAR                    
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. INSTABILITY DOES NOT HAVE TO            
BE THAT GREAT....ESPEC CONSIDERING COASTAL WATER TEMPS WILL AID IN              
LOCAL DEW POITN RECOVERY TONIGHT.                                               
GIVEN THAT WE ARE IN THE EARLY PART OF A DEVELOPING EL NINO EVENT               
...AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTS TO THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WILL PLAN ON MENTIONING                 
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST                 
POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH. WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY             
SEVERE STORMS TO ZFP TEXT FROM ORANGE AND NORTH BREVARD NORTH.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ALREADY PEAKING AROUND 20 KNOTS AT THE BUOY EAST OF             
SAINT AUGUSTINE AND 15-20 KNOTS AT THE BUOYS EAST OF NEW SYMRNA                 
BEACH AND PORT CANAVERAL.                                                       
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING BOATING             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.  WILL CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OF THE              
WATERS TODAY.  MARINE MOS HAS BEEN SHOWING 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT SO               
WILL CONTINUE A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20-60NM LEG AND             
ALSO INITIATE AN ADVISORY FOR THE 0-20NM LEG STARTING THIS EVENING.             
PASSAGE OF A BROKEN LINE OF QUICK MOVING STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE                
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXPECT SOME STRATOCU CEILINGS AOB 35KFT WITH SOME LIGHT             
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH           
FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS              
TO 25 KT.  DURING THE EVENING HOURS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS                
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SQUALL LINE.  IT LOOKS LIKE PASSAGE OF A                
BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06Z AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME             
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH EARLY ON SAT WILL                 
BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT INCREASING 15 TO 20 MPH               
DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIR MASS ON SUN BEHIND FRONT BUT MIN RH VALUES            
ONLY EXPECTED AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR.                              
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM OFFSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER               
 INLET LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT.                                         
 .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS 0-20NM OFFSHORE TONIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WIMMER/CRISTALDI                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
925 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN AT 00Z.  SOUTHERN LOW OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY MOVING                    
NORTHEAST WITH MAIN RAIN SHIELD OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND               
AREAS SOUTH.                                                                    
GREATEST PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OHIO WILL KEEP                    
MOVEMENT OF STORM SYSTEM UP THE OHIO VALLEY PER MODEL FORECASTS.                
WOULD EXPECT MAIN RAIN SHIELD TO STAY SOUTH OF OF FORECAST AREA                 
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.  RUC SHOWS COLD FRONT TO THE WEST TO ENTER                  
WESTERN PART OF CWA AROUND 10Z.                                                 
SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EXTRAPOLATED TO MOVE                
INTO WESTERN PART OF CWA AROUND 08Z. WILL ADJUST TIMING OF                      
PRECIPITATION INTO FA BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.                                   
OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL IN BALL PARK.                                              
CAMPBELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 409 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                            
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF THE TWOS STORMS MOVING INTO            
THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH                 
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH THE COLD FRONT DRAGGING THROUGH MINNESOTA. THE            
SECOND IS THE STORM THAT IS IN THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO               
VALLEY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM HAS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM                   
ROUGHLY KPAH TO CYYZ. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT                
WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAS KEPT ITS                   
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KMTC TO ABOUT KCMI.                    
MODELS (NAM AND GFS) ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING               
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE STORM THROUGH 84 HOURS. THERE ARE SOME             
TIMING PROBLEMS WITH MOISTURE LEAVING THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF              
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
TONIGHT...DRY AIR CAUGHT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS IS ERODING SOME OF             
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BROUGHT ABOUT THE CU FROM THE E TO SE               
FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN SETS            
IN THE EVENING, THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES                  
BEFORE THE NORTHERN WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHERN ENERGY            
AND BRING THE CLOUDS TO AN INCREASE. THIS HOLDS OFF THE                         
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 06Z AS THERE ARE BARELY ANY CLOUDS                   
UPSTREAM UNTIL YOU GET TO W LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER 06Z,PRETTY DEFINITE            
RAIN AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN STORM BEGINS TO GET SUCKED               
INTO THE COLD FRONT AND 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING                 
THROUGH N MINNESOTA. 850 TEMPERATURES 12Z REMAIN AT OR ABOVE -2C.               
THIS TYPICALLY IS TOO WARM FOR ANY MIX, SO WILL GO WITH ALL RAIN.               
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FORECAST REGION SO THAT BY              
00Z, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL OFF. NE LOWER REMAINS                
WARMER THAN -5C THROUGH 00Z WITH NW LOWER BEGINNING TO FALL OFF INTO            
TO BETWEEN -5C AND -10C. SO WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE AFTERNOON IN E            
UPPER AND NW LOWER. WINDS OVER THE AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE             
WITH WIND GUSTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE BEGINNING TO GO ABOVE             
45 MPH OVER THE LAND. THE 850 MB WINDS ARE AROUND 50 KNOTS ON THE               
GFS AND THE NAM NEAR PLN. SO HAVE PUT UP THE WIND WATCH FOR NE LOWER            
NEAR THE LOW'S CENTER AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE            
SINCE IT IS AWAY FROM THE LOW.                                                  
LUTZ                                                                            
LATER PERIODS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT            
WEEK.  WITH ONLY A BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN OVER             
THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH WANTING             
TO HANG ON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE                  
WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...SO               
THIS FORECAST TAKES A BLEND OF THE MODELS.  LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND              
STRONG WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF THE                 
WEEKEND. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK ON ITS HEALS...ARRIVING             
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL SEND MORE COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.                
WITH REINFORCING SHORTWAVES...COLD AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTH               
POLE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND KEEP THE GREAT LAKES COLD.                             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE KEEPS              
MOVING EAST INTO QUEBEC AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING LEAVES WITH IT.                 
HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL SET IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                
BRINGING DOWN 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN THE -5C AND -7C RANGE.  THESE                 
TEMPERATURES CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES (DELTA T'S 14C            
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND 15C OVER LAKE MICHIGAN) TO GENERATE LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND A MIX ALONG THE                       
COASTLINES.  SATURDAY EVENING STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW                   
ACCUMULATION SINCE 850-700RH WILL BE GREATER THAN 70 PCT AND                    
INVERSION HEIGHTS GREATER THAN 7KFT WILL BE PRESENT.  THIS MOISTURE             
WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY DURING THE 2ND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT.  GFS             
PULLS THIS MOISTURE AWAY MUCH QUICKER THAN THE NAM (AND BRINGS IN               
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS)...AND LIKE THE             
IDEA OF KEEPING THE MOISTURE AROUND A LITTLE LONGER.  WILL THEREFORE            
KEEP POPS IN THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE REMAINING INSTABILITY            
FOR WNW FLOW AREAS...EVEN THOUGH INVERSION HEIGHTS AND RH FALLS.                
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD                    
OVERNIGHT.  AS IT PASSES...850MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE 0C ENDING ALL                 
NUISANT LAKE EFFECT PRECIP AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING                      
OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY 00Z TUES.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS               
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN                  
SHOWERS FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER BECAUSE OF 290K                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN LESS THAN 10MB OF CPD.  850MB TEMPS WILL                 
REACH INTO THE 2-3C RANGE...PROMOTING TEMPS ACTUALLY NEAR NORMAL                
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERAL FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER THAT              
SUGGEST A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.             
MODELS AT THIS TIME ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF             
THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...BUT THEIR DIFFERENCES RESIDE            
IN THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD                  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEGATIVE NAO WILL CONTINUE             
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE              
TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WILL HELP TO                 
REINFORCE THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO               
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.  TYPICALLY...POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THIS             
VICINITY CORRESPOND TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES.  A BLOCKING RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC                
WHOSE AXIS RUNS THROUGH THE BERING STRAITS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF              
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                  
ACROSS THE NW TERRITORIES AND THE YUKON...WHICH IS NOT A GOOD SIGN              
FOR LATER PERIODS.  WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN                  
DEVELOPING...THE SIGNATURE FOR A COLD PERIOD IS PRESENT.  SO FOR THE            
DETAILS...A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS            
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES                
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.  THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SEND THE COLD                
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT              
THE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY (850MB TEMPS +4C).                
BEHIND THE FRONT...850MB TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL WELL BELOW 0C                
(GFS -8C TO -10C...ECMWF -6C TO -8C) AND PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT            
PRECIP TO START...BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB               
LAYER MOVING IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...SO NOT SURE A LARGE LAKE             
EFFECT SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP.  ONCE WE GET EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS                
LONG WAVE TROUGH...MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE POLAR            
VORTEX (ONE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER THURSDAY                            
AFTERNOON)...WHICH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS ALWAYS                       
PROBLEMATIC.  IN GENERAL...MODELS SHOW WEAK CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW             
AND WILL KEEP POPS ALONG THE WESTERLY FLOW AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY                  
THROUGH FRIDAY.  ON AVERAGE...850MB TEMPS ARE 2C-3C WARMER IN THE               
ECMWF THAN THE GFS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.  THE GFS IS TYPICALLY              
TOO COLD IN THESE TYPE OF SCENARIOS...AND WITH THE LACK OF STRONG               
MERIDIONAL FLOW...TEND TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES                  
(MODELS TRENDING WARMER ALSO).                                                  
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING...SATURDAY                   
        AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LHZ347-348.                          
       GALE WARNING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                
        LSZ321-LMZ341-342-344-345-323.                                          
       GALE WARNING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...              
        LSZ322-LHZ345-346-349.                                                  
       WIND ADVISORY...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...             
        MIZ008-016-019>022-025>028-031>034.                                     
       HIGH WIND WATCH...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...           
        MIZ017-018-023-024-029-030-035-036-041-042.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
700 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM FNT SOUTHWARD IN AREA OF             
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. BEST LIFT IS ADVANCING EASTWARD...BUT                     
ADDITIONAL LIFT EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AS SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TRACK               
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...REINFORCING LOW CLOUD COVER AND             
PRECIPITATION. THE SAGINAW VALLEY REMAINS ON THE FRINGE OF THE                  
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST OF THE              
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE COL REGION REMAINING OVER THE NORTHERN SAGINAW             
VALLEY...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY MVFR IN SAGINAW AREA...WITH BRIEF                 
PERIODS OF IFR.                                                                 
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z AS UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO             
VALLEY MERGES WITH UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT                  
LAKES. ANTICIPATE WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE                   
RAPIDLY 15-18Z SATURDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...WITH               
GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z...AND PERSISTING              
TO THE END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST 18Z-00Z.            
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE              
00-06Z UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DECREASE                 
AFTER 06Z...WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND BROKEN               
MVFR CIGS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION                        
A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND                     
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR.  PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING              
5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS              
DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.  LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE               
WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT             
RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  WITH THAT                       
SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK                   
BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY.              
THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY             
AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT.            
WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD              
BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST             
AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER              
COUPLE OF MILLIBARS.                                                            
THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES                
FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS                  
CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES.               
FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE              
IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.                            
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH            
EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.                                                  
LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE               
STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS               
DROP BACK TOWARD -6C.  HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND              
WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND                   
1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD                
PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT                   
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY              
NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET.                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS                 
START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO             
THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT             
SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE                
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE              
MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN                  
ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS            
NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE                
DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON              
AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT              
GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB             
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET             
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES                
PLACE ON SUNDAY.                                                                
SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO             
AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY               
DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE                
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A                  
DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND                   
INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT            
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY.                                                   
NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES                       
REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.               
DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND               
925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER...            
AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT INTO                 
TUESDAY MORNING.                                                                
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE                 
REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG             
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER                 
MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH              
WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.               
GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST                 
MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE                 
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE                    
GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE            
MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z                  
MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND            
TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-               
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                       
LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...NORTH HALFSTORM WARNING...LHZ421...                
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH               
HALF...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                            
GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                           
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT                
HURON UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ423-               
LCZ460...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                                          
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                    
...A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...                  
A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND                     
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR.  PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING              
5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS              
DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.  LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE               
WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT             
RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  WITH THAT                       
SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK                   
BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY.              
THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY             
AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT.            
WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD              
BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST             
AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER              
COUPLE OF MILLIBARS.                                                            
THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES                
FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS                  
CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES.               
FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE              
IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.                            
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH            
EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.                                                  
LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE               
STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS               
DROP BACK TOWARD -6C.  HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND              
WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND                   
1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD                
PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT                   
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY              
NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                              
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS                 
START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO             
THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT             
SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE                
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE              
MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN                  
ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS            
NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE                
DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON              
AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT              
GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB             
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET             
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES                
PLACE ON SUNDAY.                                                                
SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO             
AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY               
DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE                
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A                  
DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND                   
INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT            
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY.                                                   
NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES                       
REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.               
DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND               
925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AND THUNDER             
MENTION...AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT              
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.                                                           
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE                 
REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG             
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER                 
MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH              
WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.               
GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST                 
MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE                 
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE                    
GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE            
MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z                  
MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND            
TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-               
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                       
LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...NORTH HALFSTORM WARNING...LHZ421...                
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH               
HALF...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                            
GALE WARNING...LHZ422...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                           
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT                
HURON UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ423-               
LCZ460...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                                          
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.  
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS TIMING ONSET OF -SHRA OVER THE W LATE THIS AFTN.             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER SRN                  
MANITOBA BEGINNING TO DIG MORE SHARPLY TO THE SE NOW. MEANWHILE...              
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID CLOUDS CONTINUING TO EXPAND ON THE              
LEADING EDGE OF VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER NE MN PER LATEST               
RUC. THIS WILL BE THE GENERATION REGION FOR -SHRA WHICH WILL SPREAD             
INTO THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. KDLH RADAR DOES SHOW A               
BAND OF RETURNS WITHIN CLOUD DECK NOW...BUT OBS HAVE NOT INDICATED              
ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND. 12Z KINL SOUNDING REVEALS THE REASON              
AS THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOW-MID LEVELS.                      
GOING FCST LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE AFTN. HEALTHY DEEP LAYER                
FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI BY LATE AFTN...BUT EXPECT DRY             
AIR TO RESULT IN -SHRA LAGGING A BIT BEHIND INITIAL ARRIVAL OF                  
FORCING. PCPN MAY IN FACT HOLD OFF UNTIL 00Z...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH              
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO STRENGTH OF FORCING TO KEEP LOW POPS IN FOR THE              
END OF THE AFTN OVER THE FAR W.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT                                        
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG                    
STRETCHING FM THE UPR GRT LKS TOWARD JAMES BAY TO THE NE OF POTENT              
SRN BRANCH SHRTWV OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...HI PRES RDG                 
EXTENDING FM QUEBEC INTO THE UPR LKS AND ACCOMPANYING LO/MID DRY AIR            
DEPICTED ON 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS/LOCAL TAMDAR SDNGS BRINGING A TRANQUIL            
NGT TO THE FA. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD EVIDENT HOWEVER IN ADVANCE OF              
SHEARD SHRTWV RUNNING INTO THE RDG...WITH MSTR SHOWN ABV H6 ON 00Z              
GRB SDNG. OTRW...WARM FNT/MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH SYS WELL              
TO THE S AND ON TRACK TO MISS THE UPR GRT LKS. MUCH STRONGER W-E                
FLOW NOTED ACRS SW CAN TO THE N OF UPR RDG ALG THE W COAST. H3 WIND             
SPEEDS CLOSE TO 150KT NOTED ACRS CNTRL ALBERTA ASSOCIATED WITH STRG             
SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. VEIL OF HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF THIS             
SYS IS MOVING TOWARD NW MN AT 04Z...BUT LIMITED MSTR IN ADVANCE OF              
THIS SHRTWV PRESENT IN THE NRN PLAINS...WHERE 00Z PWAT AT BIS/GGW               
ONLY 0.25 INCH/0.35 INCH RESPECTIVELY. A BIT MORE MSTR PRESENT                  
FARTHER N...PWAT 0.52 INCH AT YQD.                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY WL BE TEMPS...THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO IMPACTS/             
TIMING/PCPN TYPE ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV NOW IN ALBERTA.                            
MOST OF TDAY SHOULD BE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH HI PRES RDG LINGERING             
ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS. ALTHOUGH MID/HI CLD PRESENT NOW WL THIN TDAY              
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF SHEARED SHRTWV...EXPECT MID/HI CLD TO THICKEN              
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTN OVER THE W AS VIGOROUS DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR                 
CNVGC AHD OF ALBERTA SHRTWV/IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX               
ARRIVES. THIS SHRTWV FCST TO REACH NE MN AT 00Z SAT...WITH                      
ACCOMPANYING COLD FNT APRHG THE WRN ZNS. MAINTAINED GOING LO CHC                
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE FAR W. OTRW...MIXING TO H875 AS                
OBSVD ON THU AT INL ON GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS INTO THE LO               
50S.                                                                            
FOR TNGT...GFS/UKMET AGGRESSIVELY LOWER HGTS UP TO 200M BTWN 00Z AND            
12Z SAT OVER THE UPR/CNTRL GRT LKS AS SHRTWV CUTS OFF H5 CENTER                 
SOMEWHERE OVER CNTRL LK MI. DESPITE DEARTH OF ANTECEDENT MSTR...                
THESE MODELS SHOW HIER RH/PCPN BLOSSOMING ACRS THE FA...ESPECIALLY              
THE E AND CNTRL WHERE SHARPER QVECTOR CNVGC FCST THRU 12Z SAT TO THE            
E OF DEEPENING H5 TROF AXIS. CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...            
WL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE LOCATIONS AND GO HI LIKELY              
OVER THE W. OVER THE FAR W...EXPECT PCPN TO TREND TOWARD WEAK LES               
LATE AS H85 TEMPS ARND -7C (VS LK TEMP ARND 8C) FOLLOW THE DEEPENING            
UPR LO INTO WRN LK SUP. GFS FCST SDNGS FOR IWD SHOW FAIRLY SHARP                
INVRN AT H85...SO SN GROWTH MICROPHYSICS WL BE UNFVRBL WITH LOWEST              
TEMP -7C WITHIN MIXED LYR. AS FOR PCPN TYPE...EXPECT SN TO MIX WITH             
RA W-E EXCEPT OVER ALL BUT THE E (AND NRSHORE AREAS FARTHER W) SINCE            
GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW DEPTH OF ABV FRZG LYR SHRINKING UNDER 1K FT                 
WHILE DEEPER MSTR/SHARP DYNAMICS STILL PRESENT. HOWEVER...LLVL AIR              
BEHIND SHRTWV IS NOT THAT COLD (H85 TEMP IN NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA                
ONLY -1C)...SO EXPECT JUST A SLUSHY INCH OR TWO ACCUMULATION OVER               
THE INTERIOR HIER TERRAIN.                                                      
DEEPENING UPR LO/EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING SFC LO TO THE E FCST TO MOVE             
ONLY VERY SLOWLY E ON SAT. GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC LO DEEPENING TO ARND              
972MB OVER SE CAN BY 00Z SUN...AND UKMET FCSTS 20MB PRES GRADIENT               
ACRS LK SUP...SO AT LEAST A HI GALE WARRANTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE             
E 2/3 CLOSER TO DEEPENING LO. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A               
STORM WRNG IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS GFS SHOWS 50KT H85-925 WINDS OVER              
THE ECNTRL FA IN STRG CYC NNW FLOW BEHIND DEEPENING SFC LO.                     
EVALUTATION OF HI WIND CHECKLIST HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR HI WIND ADVY            
WITH 45 KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT AGL. AS FOR WX...EXPECT BACK EDGE OF              
STEADY PCPN TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E AS WELL...WITH SHARP H85-5 QVECTOR            
CNVGC/UPR DVGC CLEARING ERY ONLY LATE IN THE DAY. WL MAINTAIN                   
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE E THRU THE DAY WITH RA/SN LINE MOVING                 
GRDLY EWD. GFS FCST SDNGS OVER THE W REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SGNFT                  
LES...WITH LOWEST TEMP WITHIN MIXED MOIST LYR ARND -8C BLO INVRN                
ARND H85 STILL POOR FOR SN GROWTH MICROPHYSICS. AS LOW PRES FCST TO             
EASE GRDLY E SAT NGT AND INCOMING AIRMASS REMAINS NOT COLD ENUF FOR             
SGNFT LES...DIMINISHED POPS W-E THRU THE NGT. BUMPED UP FCST LO                 
TEMPS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE E WITH STRG NNW WIND ACRS WARM LK WATERS.             
TENDED TO DIMINISH LES CHCS A BIT FASTER SUN/SUN EVNG THAN PREVIOUS             
FCST AS BOTH GFS/UKMET SHOW SFC RDG AXIS/DRIER AIR MOVING IN SOONER.            
BUMPED UP FCST TEMPS A BIT ON SUN WITH PROSPECT OF AT LEAST PARTIAL             
SUNSHINE.                                                                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH/ENVIRONMENT CAN.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1146 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...AM RUNNING BEHIND HERE BUT HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT             
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FIRST PERTAINS TO THE LAKE WIND ADV. HAVE              
UPGRADED A LARGE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE TRACE TO A              
WIND ADV. LOOKING AT SHV SNDG AND NEW RUC/GFS WE SHOULD EASILY                  
APPROACH WIND ADV CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF. THIS IS                   
ESPECIALLY SO IN AREAS WHERE THE OPEN LAND OR BODIES OF WATER ARE               
ORIENTED TO THE WIND THIS AFTERNOON(NW TO SE) AND CAN ALLOW A                   
FUNNELING EFFECT. STRONG CAA ADV AT H7 AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM            
THE SFC TO ABOUT H85 SHOULD EASILY ALLOW THE WINDS JUST ABV THE SFC TO          
MIX DOWN. H925 WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KTS AND MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE                
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC FIELDS ALSO AGREE WITH THIS AS THE             
295K SFC WILL RUN INTO THE GROUND AND APPEARS TO HAVE 30 TO 35 KT               
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS TO ALMOST 40               
MPH IN PLACES LIKE GLH...TVR WHERE THE RIVER AND FLAT LAND ARE                  
SITUATED PERFECTLY. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE AROUND GRENADA LAKE...PELAHATCHIE     
BAY...AND COLUMBUS LAKE. ALSO TAKING OUT ALL BUT SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN             
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS EVERYTHING HAS BEEN PRETTY PROGRESSIVE. WILL            
ADD AREAS TO PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON IN THE NW AS THE WRAP            
AROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG CAA BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON          
IN THE NW BRINGING IN A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED                
HIGHS TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN           
MISSISSIPPI WHILE NWRN ZONES HAVE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR HIGH FOR             
THE THE DAY OR ARE PRETTY CLOSE. WIND ADV ALREADY OUT...ZONES AND               
GRIDS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM COULD BE WINDS BUT NOT               
EXPECTING ANY LLW PROBLEMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AND              
THEN NORTHWEST ACROSS THE N AND CNTRL MS. SITES MEI AND HBG WILL                
LIKELY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REAL GUSTY WINDS GET IN. AS            
FOR A LITTLE LATER LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BE A PROBLEM FIRST                  
AFFECTING GLH AND GWO AND THEN PROGRESSING SEWRD. ONLY EXPECTING                
CEILING TO DROP TO MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 2-3K FT. THERE MAY ALSO BE              
SOME -DZ HELPING TO DROP VISBIES DOWN INTO MVFR THIS EVENING AS WELL.           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       71  47  68  42 /   9  12   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      74  45  68  40 /  25  20   0   0                                  
VICKSBURG     71  47  70  43 /   4  11   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   74  48  69  44 /  32  13   1   0                                  
NATCHEZ       72  48  70  47 /   7   8   1   0                                  
GREENVILLE    68  47  68  43 /   4  14   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     69  47  69  43 /   4  22   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ039-MSZ045-          
     MSZ046-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-MSZ057-                   
     MSZ058-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-                   
     MSZ073-MSZ074.                                                             
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-               
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-                   
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ040-MSZ041-                   
     MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ047-MSZ048-MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ059-                   
     MSZ060.                                                                    
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-               
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.                          
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
253 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN SHUTTING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO                 
KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING                
IN DOWNTOWN ST. LOUIS ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE COLD. TEMPERATURES WILL               
BE IN THE LOWER 40S AND A SUSTAINED NORTH WIND AROUND 20                        
MPH...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 35 MPH...WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN               
THE MIDDLE 30S.                                                                 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK                
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH CLEARING SKIES. A WARMING TREND IS ON               
TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 60S ON              
SATURDAY AND 70S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                          
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                 
RAIN INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG                 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED                   
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.              
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED LOOK TO FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL...WITH              
LOW 50S FOR HIGHS AND 30S FOR LOWS.                                             
CVKING                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                             
BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS PUSHED SOUTH              
OF KCOU AS THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CONTS TO PROGRESS EWD. RUC/NAM ARE                
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE STL VCNTY                
AROUND 23Z. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS CONTS IN THE WAKE OF                
THE PCPN...THEN FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. THUS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS                 
THERE SHOULD BE A 3H OR SO PERIOD OF IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR...AND              
THEN EVENTUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS EWD INTO                 
THE OH VLY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN                 
THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING               
AS HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES.                                       
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ST LOUIS        40  62  44  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
QUINCY          36  60  41  68 /  10  10  10  10                                
COLUMBIA        37  63  43  71 /  10  10  10  10                                
JEFFERSON CITY  38  62  43  72 /  10  10  10  10                                
SALEM           41  58  43  66 /  50  10  10  10                                
FARMINGTON      40  60  41  71 /  50  10  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MUCH OF LSX CWA IS BTWN PCPN SHIELDS ASSOC WITH STG STORM SYSTEM                
LOCATED OVR OK ERY TDA.  WRM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN STREAMING FROM NE               
AR INTO S IL IS JUST CLIPPING OUR FAR SE COUNTIES...WHILE PCPN                  
WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT IS WRAPPING FROM SW MO INTO NE KS.                      
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GD AGREEMENT IN THEIR HNDLG OF THIS                    
SYSTEM...AND THEY DEPICT CNTR OF UPR LO DRIFTING INTO NE AR DURG                
THE AFTN.                                                                       
AS UPR SYS DRIFTS EWD...PCPN SHIELD WITH COLD CONVEYOR BELT/DEFORMATION         
ZN WL OVRSPRD/REDVLP OVR S SECTIONS OF CWA AND SHUD BLANKET MOST                
AREAS ALG AND S OF I-70 BY LT MRNG. THE RAIN SHIELD SHUD THEN                   
GRDLY PULL EWD DURG AFTN AND ERY EVE WITH UPR SYS...EXITING KSTL                
AREA ARND 00Z AND OUR FAR SE COUNTIES DURG THE EVE. BOTH THE NAM                
AND GFS DEPICT GD FORCING IN THE DEF ZN...WITH THE GFS SPCLY                    
BULLISH ON THE UVV. THRF...HV MENTIONED HVY RAIN OVR S AREA FOR                 
TDA. SCTD CNVTN IS OCRG ERY TDA THRUOUT WRM SECTOR OF STORM AND                 
THIS THRT SHUD CONT THRU MIDDAY. HV DECIDED TO ALSO CONT MENTION                
OF THUNDER OVR S AREAS THIS AFTN DUE TO STG FORCING IN THE DEF ZN               
AND SNDGS INDICATING SM THRT OF SLANTWISE CNVTN.                                
NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD SMWHAT DFCLT TO PIN DOWN. HV                       
ATTEMPTED TO DEPICT A SHARP N EDGE TO THE RAINFALL...WITH POPS NR               
50% ALG A MOBERLY-KUIN LN...DROPPING TO ARND 30% IN KNOX COUNTY...THE FAR       
NW COUNTY OF CWA.                                                               
MOST AREAS WL SEE THE MAX TEMP FOR THE DAY AT 13Z...SINCE INCRG N WNDS          
SHUD PREVENT ANY WRMUP IN THE RAINCOOLED AMS. EXCEPTION MAY BE                  
FAR NW COUNTIES...WHERE LACK OF PCPN MAY ALLOW A SMALL CLIMB IN                 
TEMPS DURG AFTN.                                                                
DRY WX IS EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON TIME FRAME AS RDG BUILDS BACK                 
INTO CNTRL U.S. AMS BHND TDAS STORM SYSTEM ISN'T ALL THAT                       
COLD...SO HV UPPED MAX TEMPS A BIT FOR SAT. SUN SHUD EVEN BE AN                 
WRMR DAY. WITH MDLS INDICATING LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A STG W                     
COMPONENT TO LO LVL FLO EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO JUMP ABT 10 DEGREES                 
FROM SAT READINGS...INTO THE M60S TO LWR 70S.                                   
MADE A CPL MINOR TWEEKS IN THE MON NGT/TUE TIME FRAME TO FINE TUNE              
PASSAGE OF NXT COLD FRONT. NO OTHER CHGS TO MEDIUM RANGE.                       
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...                                                             
BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS PUSHED SOUTH              
OF KCOU AS THE MID/UPR SYSTEM CONTS TO PROGRESS EWD. RUC/NAM ARE                
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE STL VCNTY                
AROUND 23Z. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF IFR CIGS CONTS IN THE WAKE OF                
THE PCPN...THEN FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS. THUS AFTER THE PCPN ENDS                 
THERE SHOULD BE A 3H OR SO PERIOD OF IFR...IMPROVING TO MVFR...AND              
THEN EVENTUALLY CLEARING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS EWD INTO                 
THE OH VLY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN                 
THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING               
AS HEATING AND VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES.                                       
GLASS                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1044 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...                                                      
SFC LO CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL KY...WITH PCPN POISED TO MOVE BACK                  
ACRS FCST AREA WITH MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS OVER NEXT SIX HOURS.               
PCPN HAS FILLED BACK IN SOMEWHAT ACRS CNTRL AND ERN INDIANA...AND               
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEFORMATION PROGGED TO STRNGTHEN               
AS IT MOVES ACRS REGION THRU 10Z. SFC LO SHOULD TRACK ACRS NE KY                
AND INTO SE OHIO OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR              
OR SOUTH OF LOW TRACK...AND HAVE THUS PULLED BACK MENTION OF                    
THUNDER TO ENCOMPASS JUST FAR SE FCST AREA THRU ABOUT 06Z. TOYED                
WITH PULLING FLOOD WATCH AS PCPN OVERNIGHT LOOKS MARGINAL TO                    
INDUCE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN                  
CONFINED TO SRN 1/2 FCST AREA CLOSER TO SFC LO TRACK. RAINFALL                  
AMOUNTS OUT OF AREA OF PCPN ACRS SRN INDIANA AND WRN KY HAVE BEEN               
GENERALLY QUARTER TO HALF INCH. WILL GO AHEAD AND LET FFA RIDE                  
WITH THIS BATCH OF PCPN LIKELY TO MOVE ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.                  
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP FCST OVERNIGHT AND ADJUSTED                       
TEMPS/DEWPTS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED. ZONE UPDATE              
ALREADY OUT...PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                          
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 731 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
LARGE AREA OF STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO                    
PROGRESS NE ACRS NRN FCST AREA. RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHTER ACRS SRN                
OH WITH BACK EDGE OF PCPN PASSING THRU CVG METRO. APPEARS THE NEXT              
FEW HOURS WILL SEE SCT -RA AND OR DZ FOR KCVG AND KLUK WITH RAIN                
CONTINUING FURTHER NORTH. DRY SLOT ACRS CNTRL KY SHOULD BE FAIRLY               
SHORT-LIVED AS DEEPENING SFC LO OVER WESTERN KY APPCHS TOWARDS                  
MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF THE SFC LO...MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL                   
SWING EAST INTO FCST AREA AND STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY SEEING                      
MODERATE RAIN ACRS NRN/CNTRL INDIANA IN ASSOC WITH DEFORMATION.                 
HAVE USED CURRENT RUC SOLN TO TRY AND TIME IN HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCD               
WITH DEFORMATION INTO ALL TAF SITES...WITH KCVG/KLUK AND KDAY                   
BEING AFFECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN TAF SITES BEING                      
AFFECTED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD AFFECT EACH              
OF THE TAF SITES FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE SWINGING EAST               
AS SFC LO RAPIDLY MOVES INTO ERN OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR                 
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE.             
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN WAKE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN ERLY SAT                   
MRNG...CLIMBING INTO 1000-2000FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL                  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LO PASSES TO SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES.              
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 10KTS BY 06Z WITH GUSTS BTWN 20-25KT.                
WNW WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT AS SFC LO                   
CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT TO NORTHEAST OF REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
INDCG 35-40KT WINDS AT ONLY ABOUT 1000FT AGL WITH WINDS OVER 50KTS              
AT 4KFT. WITH BNDRY LYR MIXING DVLPG SAT MRNG...APPEARS LWR LVLS                
OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT IN PULLING THESE STRONGER                
WINDS TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AT NRN TAF SITES IN DAYTON AND                    
COLUMBUS METROS. HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINEDS INTO 25-30KT RANGE BY                
SAT AFTN WITH GUSTS ABV 35KTS. FOR KCMH/KLCK AND KDAY...COULD SEE               
WIND GUSTS APPCH 45KTS DURING AFTN HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD              
-SHRA AT KCMH AND KLCK INTO SAT AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLO ON BACK SIDE               
OF SFC LO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z SAT.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 703 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED ZONES AS DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO THE SOUTH A LITTLE                    
QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. ONLY HAVE LIKELY IN THE SW NOW.                
KEPT FLOOD WATCH UP AS SFC LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST AND COULD GET               
HEAVY RAINS IN EITHER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR WITH CONVECTION                   
NEAR THE LOW.                                                                   
SITES                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 303 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
SFC LOW NR THE BOOT HEEL OF MO IS FCST TO TRACK NE THRU KY AND                  
ACRS SE OH TONIGHT. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS               
TRACK.                                                                          
W AND NW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED .5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO                       
FAR...WITH THE SE .25 TO .50. H7 DEFORMATION AREA HAS FORMED OVER               
THE NW AND MODELS INCREASE IT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH TRACK OF              
LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...THE SE 1/2 WILL HAVE                
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. GFS HAS SFC LI BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR SE.              
WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 12Z                      
SAT...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FFG               
IS HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS...HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR                
THE FA...BASED ON ABOVE THOUGHTS.                                               
LOW PULLS INTO ERN LAKES ON SAT AND DEEPENS. GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN              
PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE FA SAT. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN                 
THE EAST. STRONG CAA COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.             
THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THEY SHOULD BE RAIN. NAM AND GFS BRING                
H8 WINDS OF 50 KTS IN THE FA SAT AFTN. NOT SURE THE N CAN REACH                 
WARNING CRITERIA ON THE WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WENT WITH                 
HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. ACROSS THE SOUTH WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY.                
HIGH BUILDS IN SAT NGT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z.               
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST SATURDAY NGT. H8 WINDS ARE               
ONLY 35 KTS ON SUNDAY...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG FOR SUNDAY.        
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.                                                      
SITES                                                                           
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST.               
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY              
NIGHT. WAVY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL SOUTH OF THE RIVER              
AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE            
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A            
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                            
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CAME IN COOLER            
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM                
WITH READINGS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME             
IN OVER A WEEK. COOL READINGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY                
AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                        
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-            
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                       
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING             
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074.                            
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ070>073-               
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.               
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
     073>075-080.                                                               
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING             
     FOR INZ050-058-059.                                                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ066-                   
     073>075-080.                                                               
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
731 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                          
LARGE AREA OF STEADY TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO                    
PROGRESS NE ACRS NRN FCST AREA. RAIN HAS BECOME LIGHTER ACRS SRN                
OH WITH BACK EDGE OF PCPN PASSING THRU CVG METRO. APPEARS THE NEXT              
FEW HOURS WILL SEE SCT -RA AND OR DZ FOR KCVG AND KLUK WITH RAIN                
CONTINUING FURTHER NORTH. DRY SLOT ACRS CNTRL KY SHOULD BE FAIRLY               
SHORT-LIVED AS DEEPENING SFC LO OVER WESTERN KY APPCHS TOWARDS                  
MIDNIGHT. NORTH OF THE SFC LO...MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL                   
SWING EAST INTO FCST AREA AND STRENGTHEN. CURRENTLY SEEING                      
MODERATE RAIN ACRS NRN/CNTRL INDIANA IN ASSOC WITH DEFORMATION.                 
HAVE USED CURRENT RUC SOLN TO TRY AND TIME IN HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCD               
WITH DEFORMATION INTO ALL TAF SITES...WITH KCVG/KLUK AND KDAY                   
BEING AFFECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN TAF SITES BEING                      
AFFECTED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD AFFECT EACH              
OF THE TAF SITES FOR ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE SWINGING EAST               
AS SFC LO RAPIDLY MOVES INTO ERN OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED IFR/LIFR                 
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE.             
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE IN WAKE OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN ERLY SAT                   
MRNG...CLIMBING INTO 1000-2000FT RANGE BY DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL                  
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LO PASSES TO SOUTHEAST OF ALL TAF SITES.              
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ABV 10KTS BY 06Z WITH GUSTS BTWN 20-25KT.                
WNW WINDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT AS SFC LO                   
CONTINUES TO BOMB OUT TO NORTHEAST OF REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS                   
INDCG 35-40KT WINDS AT ONLY ABOUT 1000FT AGL WITH WINDS OVER 50KTS              
AT 4KFT. WITH BNDRY LYR MIXING DVLPG SAT MRNG...APPEARS LWR LVLS                
OF ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT IN PULLING THESE STRONGER                
WINDS TO THE SFC...ESPECIALLY AT NRN TAF SITES IN DAYTON AND                    
COLUMBUS METROS. HAVE INCREASED SUSTAINEDS INTO 25-30KT RANGE BY                
SAT AFTN WITH GUSTS ABV 35KTS. FOR KCMH/KLCK AND KDAY...COULD SEE               
WIND GUSTS APPCH 45KTS DURING AFTN HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD              
-SHRA AT KCMH AND KLCK INTO SAT AFTN IN CYCLONIC FLO ON BACK SIDE               
OF SFC LO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES AFT 18Z SAT.            
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 703 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED ZONES AS DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO THE SOUTH A LITTLE                    
QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. ONLY HAVE LIKELY IN THE SW NOW.                
KEPT FLOOD WATCH UP AS SFC LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST AND COULD GET               
HEAVY RAINS IN EITHER THE DEFORMATION ZONE OR WITH CONVECTION                   
NEAR THE LOW.                                                                   
SITES                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 303 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
SFC LOW NR THE BOOT HEEL OF MO IS FCST TO TRACK NE THRU KY AND                  
ACRS SE OH TONIGHT. 12Z GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS               
TRACK.                                                                          
W AND NW AREAS HAVE RECEIVED .5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN SO                       
FAR...WITH THE SE .25 TO .50. H7 DEFORMATION AREA HAS FORMED OVER               
THE NW AND MODELS INCREASE IT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...WITH TRACK OF              
LOW A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY...THE SE 1/2 WILL HAVE                
THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS IS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM. GFS HAS SFC LI BELOW ZERO IN THE FAR SE.              
WITH THESE FACTORS EXPECT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THRU 12Z                      
SAT...WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2 INCHES. ALTHOUGH THE FFG               
IS HIGHER THAN THESE NUMBERS...HAVE ISSUED A FFA FOR TONIGHT FOR                
THE FA...BASED ON ABOVE THOUGHTS.                                               
LOW PULLS INTO ERN LAKES ON SAT AND DEEPENS. GFS IS THE SLOWEST IN              
PULLING THE PCPN OUT OF THE FA SAT. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN                 
THE EAST. STRONG CAA COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.             
THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THEY SHOULD BE RAIN. NAM AND GFS BRING                
H8 WINDS OF 50 KTS IN THE FA SAT AFTN. NOT SURE THE N CAN REACH                 
WARNING CRITERIA ON THE WINDS...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WENT WITH                 
HIGH WIND WATCH THERE. ACROSS THE SOUTH WENT WITH WIND ADVISORY.                
HIGH BUILDS IN SAT NGT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AROUND 00Z.               
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NORTHEAST SATURDAY NGT. H8 WINDS ARE               
ONLY 35 KTS ON SUNDAY...SO DONT EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG FOR SUNDAY.        
TEMPS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.                                                      
SITES                                                                           
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
FORECAST STARTS OUT DRY ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST.               
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY              
NIGHT. WAVY FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL SOUTH OF THE RIVER              
AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE            
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAY SEE A            
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                            
FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CAME IN COOLER            
THAN YESTERDAY. EXPECT A MODERATING TREND EARLY IN THE LONG TERM                
WITH READINGS APPROACHING CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE FIRST TIME             
IN OVER A WEEK. COOL READINGS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN BY WEDNESDAY                
AFTER THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA.                                        
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-            
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.                                       
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING             
     FOR OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074.                            
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ070>073-               
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>100.               
IN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-                
     073>075-080.                                                               
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING             
     FOR INZ050-058-059.                                                        
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INZ066-                   
     073>075-080.                                                               
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1230 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL GO WITH ANOTHER UPDATE TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE                
MORE HOURS AND EXPAND IT INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.                     
PROFILERS STILL SHOW 40 TO 50 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SFC AND AS CLEARING            
LINE MOVES EAST ALLOWING SOME DEEPER MIXING STILL CHANCE TO SEE                 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXCEED 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FOR A FEW             
MORE HOURS.                                                                     
30                                                                              
-------------------------------                                                 
1015 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG UPPER LOW CONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING TAKING                  
PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING            
AND WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING LINE CONT             
TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE EAST. IN CLEAR AREA OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WE               
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE MORE 40 MPH GUSTS AS WE MIX INTO HIGHER WIND                  
SPEEDS OFF THE SFC. WILL CONT WITH WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. NO                
CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                            
30                                                                              
-------------------------------------                                           
747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT              
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL                
OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE             
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST            
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS            
THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER               
REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS                
TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                                       
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN               
PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES                
QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL                
BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.                                 
ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT                  
BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS              
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT               
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  43  74  45 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         66  42  75  44 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           65  36  74  39 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     60  41  72  44 /  50   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         63  47  75  50 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-                   
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ044.                                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-             
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1015 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG UPPER LOW CONT TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS MORNING TAKING                  
PRECIP ALONG WITH IT. WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE POPS FOR THIS MORNING            
AND WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AS CLEARING LINE CONT             
TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE EAST. IN CLEAR AREA OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WE               
HAVE BEGUN TO SEE MORE 40 MPH GUSTS AS WE MIX INTO HIGHER WIND                  
SPEEDS OFF THE SFC. WILL CONT WITH WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. NO                
CHANGES TO TEMPS AT THIS POINT. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.                            
30                                                                              
-------------------------------------                                           
747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT              
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL                
OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE             
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST            
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS            
THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER               
REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS                
TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                                       
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN               
PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES                
QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL                
BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.                                 
ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT                  
BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS              
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT               
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  43  74  45 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         66  42  75  44 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           65  36  74  39 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     60  41  72  44 /  50   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         63  47  75  50 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-                   
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ044.                                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-             
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
747 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
UPPER LOW IS PROGRESSING OUT OF THE AREA QUITE RAPIDLY WITH ASCENT              
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN DIMINISHING OVER NORTH CENTRAL                
OKLAHOMA. AT THIS RATE...RAIN SHOULD END ACROSS THE OUN AREA IN THE             
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS WITH CLEARING THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD FOR THE REST            
OF THE DAY. THEREFORE FORECAST POPS TODAY HAVE BEEN DECREASED ACROSS            
THESE AREAS AND END SOONER. CONSISTENCY ALSO ARGUES FOR A QUICKER               
REDUCTION IN OVERCAST SKIES. WIND ADVISORY REMAIN INTACT AT THIS                
TIME WITH THE LATEST RUC SUPPORTING DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.                                       
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
300 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE                
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN               
PART AND PART OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH MID-DAY. WINDS ARE                   
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES                
QUICKLY EAST INTO ARKANSAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL                    
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL                
BE INFLUENCED BY THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION.                                 
ONCE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EAST, WINDS SHOULD               
BECOME MORE FROM THE WEST AND MUCH LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH THE NEXT FRONT                  
BRINGING A DRY CENTRAL ROCKIES AIRMASS. A SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS              
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH FROM KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT               
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER LOW.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  43  74  45 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         66  42  75  44 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           65  36  74  39 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     60  41  72  44 /  50   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         63  47  75  50 /  10   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-             
     OKZ006-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-                   
     OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ044.                                                             
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-             
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1219 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
WILL UPDATE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE AND               
TO TIDY UP TEMPERATURE TRENDS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 836 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                  
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW CENTER IN WRN KY WITH ASSOCIATED                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85              
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND              
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED. THE                   
HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 850 MB JET                
IN THE VICINITY WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CHARLOTTE METRO               
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING                  
LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST ARE ALLOWING BETTER CONVECTION TO FORM                  
THIS HOUR OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY                  
SLOT TO REDUCE POPS IN NE GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC...BUT WILL                   
HAVE TO HOLD ONTO MORE SOLID CHC POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE                        
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST.                                           
MOST MTN OBSERVING SITES ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                       
WIND...SO ENTERTAINED CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY.                             
HOWEVER...BEST 850 MB JET IS NOT SAFELY EAST OF THE MTN CHAIN                   
UNTIL 03Z ON THE LATEST RUC...AND ANY MIXING WITH APPROACHING                   
CONVECTION COULD STILL YIELD STRONG GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                
PROBABLY SAFEST TO KEEP IT RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.                              
18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A VERY STRONG 700 TO 500 MB JET                 
CORE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z SATURDAY. WILL                
EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO PICK UP THE                    
HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES FROM WRN MCDOWELL TO WRN CALDWELL COUNTY.                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 549 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE NPW WAS UPDATED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE A MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION                 
TIME FOR THE NC MTN WIND ADVISORY.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF             
THE END OF THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A COLD              
FRONT ALOFT PUSHING THE PRECIP EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE             
WORKING ITS WAY INTO SE TN/NW GA AT 19Z PLACES HAS IT REACHING THE              
FAR WRN MTNS OF NC AT 22Z...AND MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 03Z.              
WITH THAT TIMING IN MIND...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY             
MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND CERTAINLY BY              
SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE DRAWN                    
ACCORDINGLY AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TIMING. OTHER ISSUES            
LINGER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. SINCE HIGH ELEVATION WIND CONDITIONS               
WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY WHEN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY RUNS                 
OUT...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS               
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THINK IT WISE TO EXTEND THE WIND                   
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT HANDLE IT. A                
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF                      
POSSIBILITIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN             
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR...                   
THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.              
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND             
COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES.                                                  
MORE BIG CHANGES SHOULD HAPPEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING PULLS            
QUICKLY AWAY. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP AWAY               
FROM THE TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO HANG            
ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT COOL POOL SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY             
AS THE STRONG NW FLOW DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING. A BLEND OF             
GUIDANCE WAS ACCEPTED FOR THE HIGH TEMP. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE              
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE MTNS. THE CORE OF THE BEST WINDS              
ALOFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO OUR N...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH                  
POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE... AND PRESSURE RISES            
TO ALLOW WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS               
AND FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE             
AREAS FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING.                                         
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW             
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD EXPECT JUST            
A VARYING AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS WESTERN NC. UPPER VORTEX            
SPINNING OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST WITH TIME             
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL BE              
RELAXING AS WELL...RESULTING IN A QUIET WX DAY UNDER A DRY WESTERLY             
FLOW WITH MAXES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.                                      
LLVL RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW STARTS TO PICK            
UP OVER THE CWFA. THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING            
ALOFT SO ESSENTIALLY...ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                
RESULT IN ABOUT A CATEGORY BOOST IN MAXES FROM SUNDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE OF ANY NOTABLE              
EXTENT...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL REMAIN                   
UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING              
DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAXES FOR HALLOWEEN.                              
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT            
STALLS OUT TO OUR WEST...BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. GOING             
TOKEN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL SUFFICE. DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO              
SWING ACRS THE CWFA WED NITE OR THURSDAY PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POPS THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. CLEARING               
AND COOLER WX IS SLATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NEXT FRIDAY.            
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/                
CEILING AT ANY TIME AT ANY SITE. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MONITORED FOR            
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS               
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE             
PRECIP OVER NRN AL AT 16Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP                
WILL SWEEP EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MVFR                    
VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
AS FLOW AT 850 MB VEERS AND THE WEDGE IS DESTROYED FROM THE TOP                 
DOWN. THE DETAILS ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR ARE VERY SKETCHY...BUT IT             
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY SOME              
TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING                
SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTY W OR NW WINDS. &&                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-065-501-503-505             
     FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                                     
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
836 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                 
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW CENTER IN WRN KY WITH ASSOCIATED                
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85              
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH THE TEMPERATURES AND              
MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL BE NEEDED. THE                   
HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 850 MB JET                
IN THE VICINITY WILL STEADILY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CHARLOTTE METRO               
AREA THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEPENING                  
LAPSE RATES TO THE WEST ARE ALLOWING BETTER CONVECTION TO FORM                  
THIS HOUR OVER ERN TN AND NRN GA. WILL STILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY                  
SLOT TO REDUCE POPS IN NE GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC...BUT WILL                   
HAVE TO HOLD ONTO MORE SOLID CHC POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE                        
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST.                                           
MOST MTN OBSERVING SITES ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF                       
WIND...SO ENTERTAINED CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY.                             
HOWEVER...BEST 850 MB JET IS NOT SAFELY EAST OF THE MTN CHAIN                   
UNTIL 03Z ON THE LATEST RUC...AND ANY MIXING WITH APPROACHING                   
CONVECTION COULD STILL YIELD STRONG GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                
PROBABLY SAFEST TO KEEP IT RUNNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT.                              
18Z MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A VERY STRONG 700 TO 500 MB JET                 
CORE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY 18Z SATURDAY. WILL                
EXPAND THE HIGH WIND WATCH WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO PICK UP THE                    
HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES FROM WRN MCDOWELL TO WRN CALDWELL COUNTY.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 549 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
THE NPW WAS UPDATED TO CORRECTLY INDICATE A MIDNIGHT EXPIRATION                 
TIME FOR THE NC MTN WIND ADVISORY.                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF             
THE END OF THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIP. CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST A COLD              
FRONT ALOFT PUSHING THE PRECIP EAST. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BACK EDGE             
WORKING ITS WAY INTO SE TN/NW GA AT 19Z PLACES HAS IT REACHING THE              
FAR WRN MTNS OF NC AT 22Z...AND MOVING EAST OF THE MTNS AFTER 03Z.              
WITH THAT TIMING IN MIND...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY             
MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AND CERTAINLY BY              
SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF. CATEGORICAL POP WILL BE DRAWN                    
ACCORDINGLY AND TEXT PRODUCTS WILL REFLECT THIS TIMING. OTHER ISSUES            
LINGER FOR THE FIRST PERIOD. SINCE HIGH ELEVATION WIND CONDITIONS               
WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY WHEN THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY RUNS                 
OUT...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STILL BE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS               
THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...THINK IT WISE TO EXTEND THE WIND                   
ADVISORY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT HANDLE IT. A                
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN THE REALM OF                      
POSSIBILITIES AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES IN             
THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR...                   
THOUGH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.              
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND             
COULD EVEN RISE A FEW DEGREES.                                                  
MORE BIG CHANGES SHOULD HAPPEN SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FORCING PULLS            
QUICKLY AWAY. THE DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP AWAY               
FROM THE TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO HANG            
ON INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE REMNANT COOL POOL SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY             
AS THE STRONG NW FLOW DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS IN THE MORNING. A BLEND OF             
GUIDANCE WAS ACCEPTED FOR THE HIGH TEMP. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE              
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS OVER THE MTNS. THE CORE OF THE BEST WINDS              
ALOFT SHOULD MOVE OFF TO OUR N...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH                  
POTENTIAL WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE... AND PRESSURE RISES            
TO ALLOW WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS               
AND FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE             
AREAS FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME AND EVENING.                                         
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DEGREE OF UPSLOPE FLOW             
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY SPARSE...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE WOULD EXPECT JUST            
A VARYING AMOUNT OF LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS WESTERN NC. UPPER VORTEX            
SPINNING OVER SE CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE NORTHEAST WITH TIME             
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CWFA ON SUNDAY. GRADIENT WILL BE              
RELAXING AS WELL...RESULTING IN A QUIET WX DAY UNDER A DRY WESTERLY             
FLOW WITH MAXES NEAR LATE OCTOBER NORMALS.                                      
LLVL RIDGING SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW STARTS TO PICK            
UP OVER THE CWFA. THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING            
ALOFT SO ESSENTIALLY...ANOTHER QUIET WX DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL                
RESULT IN ABOUT A CATEGORY BOOST IN MAXES FROM SUNDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE            
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE OF ANY NOTABLE              
EXTENT...ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL REMAIN                   
UPSTREAM OF THE CWFA THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH GOING              
DRY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAXES FOR HALLOWEEN.                              
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN SMALL ON WEDNESDAY AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT            
STALLS OUT TO OUR WEST...BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. GOING             
TOKEN SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WILL SUFFICE. DEEPER FRONTAL ZONE                   
MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM MORE STOUT UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS PROGGED TO              
SWING ACRS THE CWFA WED NITE OR THURSDAY PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS AND WILL RAISE POPS THIS PERIOD ACCORDINGLY. CLEARING               
AND COOLER WX IS SLATED IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS FOR NEXT FRIDAY.            
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER             
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/                
CEILING AT ANY TIME AT ANY SITE. ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MONITORED FOR            
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS               
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE. BY EXTRAPOLATING THE BACK EDGE OF THE             
PRECIP OVER NRN AL AT 16Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP                
WILL SWEEP EAST BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. HOWEVER...AT LEAST MVFR                    
VISIBILITY AND CEILING WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
AS FLOW AT 850 MB VEERS AND THE WEDGE IS DESTROYED FROM THE TOP                 
DOWN. THE DETAILS ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR ARE VERY SKETCHY...BUT IT             
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY SOME              
TIME AROUND DAYBREAK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING                
SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTY W OR NW WINDS. &&                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL                     
     MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.                                                         
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-065-501-503-505             
     FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.                                     
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1112 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
OUR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT IS                       
BEGINNING TO UNFOLD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.                  
PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE INCIPIENT               
COLD AIR DAMMING REGION ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT AS                  
INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOISTENED. THE SLIGHT DELAY IN PRECIP              
ONSET ACROSS THE DAMMING REGION ALLOWED SOME TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW               
DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST...BUT TEMPS SHOULD FALL WITH THE                   
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. THE TEXT                      
PRODUCTS WILL BE WORDED ACCORDINGLY TO HANDLE THE STEADY OR                     
FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
THERE ARE OTHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION               
TO THE AREA WHERE THUNDER IS FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE TO ELIMINATE                
IT OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE STABILITY IS HIGH. THE LATEST              
RUC DOES NOT BRING THE WEAK INSTABILITY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FRINGE              
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SO THE TIMING IS PUSHED BACK. IT IS NOT                 
YET CLEAR HOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM                
WILL WORK OUT...BUT LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE JUST SICK WITH SHEAR AND               
HELICITY...SO A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IS STILL WITHIN THE REALM OF                 
POSSIBILITIES OVER THE AREA S OF INTERSTATE 85. SEE NO REASON TO                
ALTER THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THE MTNS. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN                        
POTENTIAL...THERE IS LINGERING CONCERN THAT CONVECTION CLOSER TO                
THE GULF COAST COULD STEAL AWAY SOME OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT                  
SINCE THIS IS A KATAFRONT SITUATION AND SOME OF THE DEEPER                      
CONVECTION OVER SRN AL APPEARS TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE COLD                 
FRONT WHICH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE MS RIVER AT 12Z. HOWEVER...IT                
IS A MOOT POINT SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT. IF                
ANYTHING...IT WOULD MAKE THE DECISION TO NOT ISSUE A WATCH AN EVEN              
BETTER ONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 259 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND             
TONIGHT...DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS COLD            
FRONT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND AN OPEN GULF WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD             
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A STRONG JET MAX ALOFT AND AN              
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL COMPONENT. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES            
IS EXPECTED...BUT SPREAD OVER SUFFICIENT TIME TO LIMIT RUNOFF.                  
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND              
ALONG THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE                   
PIEDMONT COUNTIES FROM CHARLOTTE TO ELBERTON TONIGHT. ENOUGH SHEAR              
WILL BE IN PLACE TO WARRANT CLOSE INSPECTION OF ANY WELL DEVELOPED              
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PIEDMONT FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS                  
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE QUITE STIFF ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT             
IN A TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THE NORTH CAROLINA                 
MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH WARM                  
ADVECTION AND RISING MOTION SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS               
FROM REALIZING HIGH WINDS. EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A NORTHEAST                  
SURFACE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ANY TEMPERATURE GAIN TODAY...WHILE CLOUDS             
AND WIND LIMIT COOLING TONIGHT...DESPITE THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD               
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                           
COLD ADVECTION WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE                   
WARMING SATURDAY....AND WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS SCOURED...                
SATURDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER THAN TODAY. AS DOWNWARD MOTION AND             
COLD ADVECTION COMBINE WITH A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT SATURDAY...THE             
WIND WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FORM THE WEST NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY               
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST ONLY HAS A FEW            
PIXELS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA VELOCITIES...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN            
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP               
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT....CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN             
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY EVENING. PARTIAL THICKNESS...850 MB                       
TEMPERATURES...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SNOW WITH THIS                
NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIPITATION. A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT                  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LIMIT COOLING...AS THE INVADING HIGH             
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FROM THE GULF STATES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN                   
APPALACHIANS.                                                                   
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
THE EASTERN LW TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY              
NIGHT...GIVING WAY TO ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL                   
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A WARMING TREND BY THE               
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE FLOW BACKS IN RESPONSE TO            
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CTRL/WRN CONUS. IN ASSOCIATION              
WITH THIS...THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED                    
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA ON THU. THIS IS APPROX 18 HOURS LATER THAN               
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS...SO THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY SOME TIMING                   
CONCERNS. FOR NOW...POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE             
FOR WED NIGHT AND THU.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR            
CIGS FORECAST W TAF SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK...SPREADING E DURING                  
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VIS TO COME DOWN TO MVFR AS RAIN BECOMES MORE             
STEADY WITH CEILINGS GOING IFR MID DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE               
EVE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 5-10 KTS FROM THE NE AS IN-SITU WEDGE                
DEVELOPS MID-LATE MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTN-EVE                 
TSTMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. MODELS INDICATE A FAIR            
AMOUNT OF SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR LATER TODAY AND LLWS MAY             
NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER TAFS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065 UNTIL 6 PM                
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MOORE                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS ARE STAYING MORE NORTHWEST THAN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND WILL SLOW             
DOWN THE SHIFT TO THE NNW FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. SEEN GUSTS TO 36KTS            
AT FTW AND NFW SO FAR AND EXPECT MAX GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS THIS                
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT 20-21Z AS BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS                 
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH AND WITH CLEAR SKIES INVERSION WILL ESTABLISH             
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND DROP THE WINDS BELOW 10KT BY 01-02Z. 84                
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20.  ALONG WITH STRONG ADVECTION OF                
COOLER AIR...THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS               
AFTERNOON.  HENCE...WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER...KEEPING THE NORTHERN              
PORTION MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW            
DEGREES AS WELL.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS LOOK GOOD SO DO NOT                     
ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES THERE.     42                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
643 AM CDT...                                                                   
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH               
LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY            
FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS.  A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT                  
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND               
EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE            
EAST.  THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS                
SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                 
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER              
DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE               
25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...               
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING               
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.  WILL INITIALLY                
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS             
AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY                
18Z.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE                
DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.              
65/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY                  
WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR                 
OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER                    
SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME                     
UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS              
ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS               
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE                      
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND                    
CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE                
AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA.              
FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN                
THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE              
WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE.               
ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF                  
THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER                 
LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND               
MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH                
WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE                
AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE.                                
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT                 
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT                
GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT                
WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS                       
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR                     
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE               
COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE               
TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO                 
THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET.                         
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0                          
WACO, TX              71  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             62  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            67  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          66  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            67  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           67  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         69  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
TEMPLE, TX            73  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-                
TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-                 
TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-                 
TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142-                 
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-                 
TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
954 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUD COVER IS A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF               
THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20.  ALONG WITH STRONG ADVECTION OF                
COOLER AIR...THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY THIS               
AFTERNOON.  HENCE...WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER...KEEPING THE NORTHERN              
PORTION MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO MID AFTERNOON...AND LOWER MAX TEMPS A FEW            
DEGREES AS WELL.  WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS LOOK GOOD SO DO NOT                     
ANTICIPATE ANY CHANGES THERE.     42                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
643 AM CDT...                                                                   
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH               
LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY            
FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS.  A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT                  
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND               
EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE            
EAST.  THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS                
SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                 
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER              
DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE               
25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...               
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING               
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.  WILL INITIALLY                
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS             
AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY                
18Z.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE                
DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.              
65/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY                  
WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR                 
OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER                    
SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME                     
UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS              
ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS               
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE                      
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND                    
CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE                
AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA.              
FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN                
THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE              
WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE.               
ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF                  
THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER                 
LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND               
MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH                
WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE                
AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE.                                
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT                 
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT                
GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT                
WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS                       
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR                     
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE               
COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE               
TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO                 
THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET.                         
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0                          
WACO, TX              71  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             62  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            67  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          66  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            67  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           67  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         69  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
TEMPLE, TX            73  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-                
TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-                 
TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-                 
TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142-                 
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-                 
TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
643 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY...WITH A HIGH               
LIKELIHOOD THAT AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED PERIODICALLY            
FOR NONCONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS.  A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT                  
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...AND               
EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY VEER AS A POTENT UPPER VORT MAX EJECTS TO THE            
EAST.  THUS...EARLIER CROSSWIND PROBLEMS AT N-S ORIENTED RUNWAYS                
SHOULD NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH                 
WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER              
DAWN...WITH SPEEDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE               
25G35 KNOT RANGE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.  OTHERWISE...               
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH COLD AIR STRATUS FIGHTING               
THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE.  WILL INITIALLY                
CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BROKEN HIGH-END MVFR DECKS             
AROUND THE METROPLEX...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE CLOUD FREE BY                
18Z.  WINDS WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DUSK...BUT WITHOUT TRUE                
DECOUPLING EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT.              
65/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ROLLING ACROSS OKLAHOMA EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NW WINDS NOW ENTERING THE CWA. MAIN                    
FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE WINDS AND JUST HOW STRONG THEY                  
WILL GET. REMOTE SAMPLING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS BY REGIONAL RADARS                 
SUGGEST THAT THE RUC FORECAST OF 50 KT AT 850 MB IS NOT TOO FAR                 
OFF. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUST TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE CWA. AFTER                    
SUNRISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME                     
UNSTABLE AND ALLOW FOR BETTER DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS              
ALOFT. ALL OF THE MODELS TRY TO BRING SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS               
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT CURRENT SATELLITE                      
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IS WINNING OUT AND                    
CLOUDS ARE ERODING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THE                
AREA NORTH OF I-20 WILL CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY...AND               
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE WEAKER IN THIS AREA.              
FELT THAT THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TOO LOW WITH FORECAST SPEEDS GIVEN                
THE CURRENT TRENDS AND WE HAVE BUMPED UP THE SPEEDS 5-7 KT IN LINE              
WITH RUC PROGS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY                 
CRITERIA AROUND 6 PM AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE.               
ASIDE FROM THE WIND TODAY...NO FORECAST CHALLENGES TO SPEAK OF                  
THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. IN FACT...WEATHER                 
LOOKS VERY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH PLEASANTLY COOL NIGHTS AND               
MILD AFTERNOONS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH                
WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. MAV MOS TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE                
AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GUIDANCE.                                
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT                 
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT                
GREAT...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT                
WILL SLIP INTO THE CWA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION REMAINS                       
SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC...SO CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND AS COOLER AIR                     
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE NE. ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG WITH THE               
COLD AIR INTRUSION NEXT WEEK...AND THEREFORE ONLY BUMPED DOWN THE               
TEMPS A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DID NOT JUMP ONTO                 
THE MEX MOS BANDWAGON OF HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S JUST YET.                         
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  50  76  52 /   0   0   0   0                          
WACO, TX              71  46  77  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             62  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            67  47  76  46 /   0   0   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          66  45  76  45 /   0   0   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            67  51  75  54 /   0   0   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           67  47  75  48 /   0   0   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         69  47  76  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
TEMPLE, TX            73  47  78  49 /   0   0   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-                
TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-                 
TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-                 
TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ135-TXZ141-TXZ142-                 
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-                 
TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ162-TXZ174-TXZ175.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
944 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                         
UPON FURTHER REVIEW HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE VA PENINSULA IN THE                 
WIND ADVISORY. UPDATED PRODUCTS BEING SENT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 913 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                          
RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS EVE. MEASURED RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AT ASOS SITES AND RADAR                      
ESTIMATES UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. WATCHING SEVERAL                  
HEAVIER BANDS OF PCPN MOVG NE THRU VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN NC SO                
RAINFALL RATES SHUD PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EXPECTED.                  
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TOTAL QPF BUT STILL A                
SOLID 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.              
WINDS IN LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND EVE UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REALLY                  
STARTING TO PICK UP WITH 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. SFC WINDS                
ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LOW LVL JET WITH SOME               
GUSTS UP NEAR 30 MPH NOTED. SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT WIND                  
ADVISORY IN PLACE.                                                              
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OVRNGT LOWS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO 60S MOST                    
PLACES BY DAYBREAK.                                                             
STRONG WINDS IN THE CHES BAY WILL CREATE MINOR CSTL FLOOD PROBS                 
LATE TNGT AND THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE                  
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED SO THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WILL BE ON THE              
BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW                  
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS              
BEEN SENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.                                               
UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT. WILL REFRESH NPW/SPS AS WELL.               
ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE TO CWF...MAINLY TO INTRODUCE GALE WARNING              
IN THE CHES BAY.                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR.                 
KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS                    
FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL              
THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY                      
ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC.                                           
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE              
ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION               
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.               
HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED              
SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT                 
ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP                
ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2                  
INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG                   
THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT                   
MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT.                                                
SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT                  
WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                             
PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN                 
ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE                   
ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST                   
RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER                    
CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE.                                                        
GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE                 
SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR               
EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC.                  
INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO                
20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU                
EARLY SAT EVENING.                                                              
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE                     
MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN.                 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF               
AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT.                                                        
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD                   
MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND                  
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE              
FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY              
ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW.              
NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED.                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE                           
SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE            
MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN            
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL               
ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND                
REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.                                
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT                         
MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS            
EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY             
CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS               
WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING             
FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY                            
EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF              
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED                        
SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ091-094-095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO             
     6 PM SATURDAY.                                                             
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO          
     7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632-633-656-658 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CULLEN                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
913 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                         
RAIN HAS BEEN MAINLY LIGHT SO FAR THIS EVE. MEASURED RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AT ASOS SITES AND RADAR                      
ESTIMATES UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS. WATCHING SEVERAL                  
HEAVIER BANDS OF PCPN MOVG NE THRU VA PIEDMONT AND EASTERN NC SO                
RAINFALL RATES SHUD PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS EXPECTED.                  
LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON TOTAL QPF BUT STILL A                
SOLID 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.              
WINDS IN LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND EVE UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REALLY                  
STARTING TO PICK UP WITH 35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 5K FT. SFC WINDS                
ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE LOW LVL JET WITH SOME               
GUSTS UP NEAR 30 MPH NOTED. SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE CURRENT WIND                  
ADVISORY IN PLACE.                                                              
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OVRNGT LOWS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW/WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK INTO 60S MOST                    
PLACES BY DAYBREAK.                                                             
STRONG WINDS IN THE CHES BAY WILL CREATE MINOR CSTL FLOOD PROBS                 
LATE TNGT AND THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE                  
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED SO THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA WILL BE ON THE              
BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW                  
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY THRU SAT NIGHT. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS              
BEEN SENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.                                               
UPDATED FCST PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT. WILL REFRESH NPW/SPS AS WELL.               
ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE TO CWF...MAINLY TO INTRODUCE GALE WARNING              
IN THE CHES BAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR.                 
KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS                    
FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL              
THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY                      
ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC.                                           
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE              
ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION               
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.               
HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED              
SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT                 
ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP                
ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2                  
INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG                   
THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT                   
MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT.                                                
SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT                  
WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                             
PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN                 
ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE                   
ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST                   
RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER                    
CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE.                                                        
GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE                 
SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR               
EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC.                  
INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO                
20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU                
EARLY SAT EVENING.                                                              
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE                     
MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN.                 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF               
AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT.                                                        
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD                   
MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND                  
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE              
FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY              
ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW.              
NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED.                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE                           
SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE            
MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN            
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL               
ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND                
REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.                                
MARINE...                                                                       
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT                         
MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS            
EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY             
CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS               
WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING             
FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY                            
EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF              
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED                        
SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654 FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO          
     7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ632-633-656-658 FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY TO              
     7 PM SUNDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CULLEN/FOSTER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
RAIN IS QUICKLY SPREADING TO COVER OUR ENTIRE CWA AT THIS HOUR.                 
KAKQ RADAR ESTIMATES REPORT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS HAS                    
FALLEN SO FAR. THIS IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE...THOUGH I FEEL              
THE PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOT HANDLED AGGRESSIVELY                      
ENOUGH...ESP SURPRISINGLY BY THE RUC.                                           
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY POSED JUST S OF THE NC BORDER AND MOVING N/NE              
ALONG W/ SOUTHERLY FLOW. MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION               
LATE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LARGE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED.               
HAVE NOTICED QPF AMOUNTS INCREASING PAST FEW MOD RUNS...AND INDEED              
SINCE INITIAL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN UNDERDONE (OR NONE AT                 
ALL) HAVE BUMPED OP PRECIP AMOUNTS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...ESP                
ALONG A N/S AXIS EXTENDING FROM S/CENTRAL VA TO NE NC. UP TO 2                  
INCHES OF QPF AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ALONG                   
THIS CORRIDOR WHERE WARMER AIR IS QUICKLY DISPLACED EARLY SAT                   
MORNING BY A FAST MOVING CD FRT.                                                
SOIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT MOIST FROM EVENT(S) PAST...THEREFORE IT                  
WILL BE ABLE TO RECEIVE AND RETAIN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF                             
PRECIP...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN                 
ANY PARTICULARLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OF COURSE PONDING ON THE                   
ROADWAYS. THOUGH THE GFS IS TURNING OUT HIGHER QPFS THIS LAST                   
RUN...DO NOT FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT PUTTING UP A WATCH ATTM PER                    
CONDITIONS AND GUIDANCE.                                                        
GRAD TIGHTENS ALONG THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE                 
SFC...HAVE HOISTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER EARN SHORE...FAR               
EARN PTNS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA...AND ALSO CURRITUCK CO IN NC.                  
INTERIOR AREAS CAN EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO                
20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT THRU                
EARLY SAT EVENING.                                                              
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL...THOUGH ISOLATED TS WERE                     
MENTIONED FOR SE SECTION OF CWA AND FAR EARN AREAS BY SAT MORN.                 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MILDLY UNSTABLE (IF               
AT ALL) BEFORE THE FRNT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
SAT EVENING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AND ASSOC RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD                   
MOVE WELL OFF TO THE NE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BECOME CLEAR AND                  
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE...MAY HAVE SOME DENSE              
FOG ISSUES SUN MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. TEMPS STAY              
ON THE MILD SIDE AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE REGION FROM THE SW.              
NEXT FROPA PASSAGE COMES THU. NOT MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS AND VIS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THIS EVENING AS WE                           
SEE AN INCREASE IN RA COVERAGE. LOOKING FOR PREDOMINANT CONDS IN THE            
MVFR RANGE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER RAIN. MOST OF THE RAIN            
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12-15Z TOMORROW MORNING...AND CLOUDS WILL               
ALSO CLEAR ABOUT THE SAME TIME. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT AND                
REMAIN RATHER GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT                         
MOVES THROUGH AND THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. GALE FORCE WINDS            
EXPECTED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OFFSHORE LOCATIONS...WITH ADVISORY             
CONDITIONS STARTING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...BUT WINDS               
WILL REMAIN STRONG FOR AT LEAST 12-24 HRS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING             
FOR WINDS OFFSHORE TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE SATURDAY                            
EVENING/NIGHT...BUT REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGHOUT MOST OF              
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE DECREASED                        
SIGNIFICANTLY AND LOOK TO REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH MID-WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ021>025 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ017-102 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ095-098>100 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM          
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658 FROM 9 PM FRIDAY               
     TO 10 PM SATURDAY.                                                         
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 10 PM                 
     SATURDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...33                                                            
AVIATION/MARINE...MCNATT                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEPENING NRN                 
BRANCH TROF OVER CNTRL NAMERICA AS POTENT SHRTWV DIGGING INTO WI PER            
WV IMAGERY WITH RIBBON OF +150KT/90KT H3/H5 NW WINDS BTWN UPSTREAM              
RDG ALG THE W COAST AND TROF AXIS FM NRN MANITOBA INTO WI.                      
ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FNT MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA WITH BAND OF SHRA            
DESPITE LIMITED PWAT OF 0.42 INCH SHOWN ON 00Z GRB RAOB. H5 TEMP AT             
INL HAS FALLEN TO -34C BEHIND THE TROF...BUT LLVL AIR NOT                       
PARTICULARLY COLD BEHIND THE BNDRY WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C             
RANGE/SFC TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 30S. 00Z INL SDNG IS RATHER                       
UNSTABLE...SO A FEW LTG STRIKES NOTED WITHIN AREA OF ISOLD SHRA OVER            
NE MN/WRN LK SUP THAT IS TRAILING MAIN BAND OF PCPN. COVG OF THESE              
SHRA LIMITED BY DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE INL SDNG (PWAT THERE ONLY 0.29             
INCH). WIND SPEEDS AT INL AS HI AS 37KT AT 4K FT AGL. POTENT SHRTWV             
EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN BRANCH MOVING THRU THE OH VALLEY. DEEP WARM                 
CONVEYOR BELT MSTR TO THE E OF THIS SYS HAS PUSHED INTO THE CNTRL               
GRT LKS TO THE SE OF THE FA.                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BTWN NRN              
AND SRN BRANCH SHRTWVS AND ACCOMPANYING PCPN COVG/TYPE/WINDS OVER               
THE FA.                                                                         
FOR TDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS DIGGING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV PHASING WITH                
SHRTWV LIFTING THRU THE OH VALLEY...WITH RDPLY DEEPENING SFC LO PRES            
OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY 00Z SUN. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SFC LO                 
DEEPENING TO 978MB...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS               
EARLIER DEEPER GFS SOLNS. IT APPEARS PHASING OF FEATURES WL OCCUR               
TOO FAR E FOR SGNFT PCPN OVER THE FA AS DEEPER WARM CONVEYOR BELT               
MSTR IS TOO FAR E... BUT POTENT DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CVNGC/UPR DVGC               
SHOWN BY NAM/GFS IN LEFT EXIT OF H3 JET MAX DIGGING INTO DEEPENING              
UPR TROF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT DESPITE LIMITED MSTR FOR SHRA ALL DAY             
OVER THE E AS STRG DYNAMICS/DEEPER MSTR NOT FCST TO CLR ERY UNTIL               
21Z OR SO. MARGINAL CHILL OF INCOMING AIRMASS WL LIMIT POTENTIAL TO             
CHG THE RA TO SN ON THE WRN EDGE OF MORE WDSRPD PCPN SHIELD AS A                
RESULT OF IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC COOLING. EVEN IF PCPN TYPE DOES CHG TO             
SN...LLVL TEMPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO LIMIT SN ACCUM AS                
WELL. DRYNESS/ MARGINAL CHILL OF INCOMING AIRMASS WARRANTS CUTTING              
LES CHCS OVER THE W 1/2...BUT WL STILL CARRY SCT/HI CHC POPS FOR                
SHRASN DUE TO DEPTH OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SFC-H5 SHOWN ON NAM FCST               
SDNG FOR IWD THIS AFTN. AS FOR WINDS...FCST PRES GRADIENT ACRS LK               
SUP FCST ARND 14MB OR SO BY 00Z SUN...WITH H925 WINDS UP TO 40-45KT.            
SINCE PRES RISE CENTER FCST TO STAY TO THE S AND LLVL PUSH OF VERY              
COLD AIR ABSENT...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR AS CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING            
HI WIND EVENT DESPITE RATHER DEEP INSTABILITY.                                  
FOR TNGT...FA FCST UNDER SLOWLY RISING HGTS/DNVA/VIGOROUS H85-5                 
QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING OCCLUSION EDGING SLOWLY NE                
INTO QUEBEC. AIRMASS REMAINS MARGINALLY COLD/MOIST FOR ANY LES... SO            
NO MORE THAN CHC POPS. AREAS ACRS THE SCNTRL SHOULD SEE NOTHING MORE            
THAN PCLDY SKIES WITH STRG DOWNSLOPING NW WIND. NAM/GFS SHOW H85                
WINDS UP TO 50KT OVER THE E 1/2 CLOSER TO CYCLONE...SO STRG WINDS/              
GALES ON THE E 2/3 OF THE LK SHOULD LINGER. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL               
ARRIVE...STRG NW FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK SUP WL               
ACT TO PREVENT AS LARGE A DIURNAL TEMP FALL AS MIGHT OTRW BE                    
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
SGNFT H5 HGT RISES AOA 120M FCST ON SUN AS UPR RDGING/DNVA IN THE               
WAKE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING CYC OVERSPREADS THE UPR GRT LKS. EXPECT                
LINGERING LES OVER THE E TO DIMINISH WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HI PRES                
RDG. BUT UKMET/GFS SHOW INCRSG H7 MSTR OVER THE W IN THE AFTN PER               
GFS FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K-300K SFCS (H8-6). MIXING TO H85            
ON GFS FCST SDNGS SUPPORT HI TEMPS TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE.           
WARM FNT TO THE NE OF DVLPG SFC LO IN THE PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH                
DEEPENING TROF IN THE NRN ROCKIES FCST TO SET UP SHOP NOT TOO FAR TO            
THE S ON SUN NGT. MODELS DEPICT DRY LLVLS...SO EXPECT ONLY PTCHY                
CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FGEN. WITH LGT WINDS...LOOK               
FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH MODELS            
STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DEEPENING LO FM THE PLAINS INTO MON...REMOVED            
POPS AS GFS/UKMET/ECMWF PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PCPN. EXPECT JUST HI/             
SOME MID CLD DUE TO LOWER LVL DRYNESS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING E 2/3 LK SUPERIOR.              
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ001 4 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ005 8 AM-8 PM EDT SATURDAY.                               
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ006 8 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ007 11 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
110 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM MAINLY FNT SOUTHWARD IN              
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION BETWEEN UPPER WAVES. PATCHY IFR MAY             
DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO MBS AREA 06-10Z AS SOUTHERN WAVE              
OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. STILL ANTICIPATE                
SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY 09-18Z AS WAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN            
MERGES WITH UPPER WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.                
ANTICIPATE WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE RAPIDLY                  
12Z-18Z...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS TO                      
45 KNOTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z...AND PERSISTING TO THE END            
OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN ALSO EXPECTED                
12-15Z WITH A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING                
COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST 18Z-00Z...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL               
BECOME A MORE SHOWERY AS 500 MB COLD POOL MOVES OVER THE REGION.                
WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN TAFS BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A                
LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH LATEST MODEL RUN. RAIN AND SNOW                     
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 00-06Z UNDER DEEP                    
CYCLONIC FLOW. MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DECREASE AFTER 06Z...WITH ONLY             
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z AND BROKEN MVFR CIGS.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                     
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION                        
A 996MB SURFACE LOW WAS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 19Z AND                     
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ABOUT 1MB/HR.  PRESSURE FALLS WERE APPROACHING              
5-6MBS/3HRS ACROSS CENTRAL-EASTERN KENTUCKY AS 150KT 300MB JET WAS              
DIVING INTO THE DAKOTAS.  LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE               
WESTERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE UKMET/WRF-HEMI AND SHORT             
RANGE RUC ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  WITH THAT                       
SAID...RAPID DEEPENING SHOULD COMMENCE TONIGHT WITH THE TRACK                   
BETWEEN CLE/BUF OVERNIGHT THEN INTO LOWER ONTARIO/QUEBEC SATURDAY.              
THIS WILL PROVIDE RAIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY             
AND HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT SOUTH OF M59 AND EAST OF I75 OVERNIGHT.            
WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...FOG COULD              
BECOME AN ISSUE AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  THE UKMET LOOKS GOOD              
WITH CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK/INTENSITY AND IT REMAINS THE DEEPEST             
AT 970MB SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS LOW BOTTOM OUT ANOTHER              
COUPLE OF MILLIBARS.                                                            
THE HIGH WIND WATCH ISSUED EARLIER LOOKS GOOD AS BUFKIT PROFILES                
FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS                  
CLIMBING TOWARD 5000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE 60KTS RESIDES.               
FURTHERMORE...SINKING MOTIONS SEEN IN THE CROSS SECTIONS ARE QUITE              
IMPRESSIVE TO FURTHER ASSIST WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM.                            
EVENING/OVERNIGHT TEAM WILL HAVE ONE MORE LOOK AND CAN GO AHEAD WITH            
EITHER AN ADVISORY OR WARNING.                                                  
LOW WRAPS UP TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH COLD ADVECTION DIVING INTO THE               
STATE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS               
DROP BACK TOWARD -6C.  HARD TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE DEFORMATION BAND              
WILL OCCUR BUT WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES HANGING OUT AROUND                   
1305-1310DM...AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...HARD                
PRESSED TO GET MUCH ACCUMULATIONS BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT                   
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB SATURDAY              
NIGHT ONCE WE ARE ABLE TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SUNSET.                  
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BIG EASTERN LAKES STORM...MODELS IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE FOR SUNDAY. 850 TEMPS                 
START TO WARM DURING THE DAY TOO...SO WHATEVER LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO             
THE CLOUDS THERE IS TO START THE DAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT             
SUNDAY. THAT WILL GIVE MOST OF THE CWA MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE                
AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUNSHINE COMES THE POTENTIAL OF INCREASING THE              
MIXING HEIGHTS AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY STILL IN                  
ADVISORY LEVEL OF 45 MPH OR GREATER...THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS            
NAM HOLDS ON TO 925 MB WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE                
DAY. GRADIENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL STILL PLAGUE LAKE HURON              
AND EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY WITH FREQUENT              
GUST REACHING 48 KTS...AND AGAIN THE NAM HAS 45 TO 50 KTS AT 925 MB             
OVER THE LAKE THROUGH AROUND 18Z. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/MET             
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND 850 WARMING THAT TAKES                
PLACE ON SUNDAY.                                                                
SIGNIFICANT WARMING CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING TO             
AROUND +12C ON SW 850 MB WINDS OF 40 KTS. AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY               
DRY WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN FOR THE                
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH TEMPS ABOVE 60 AND ABOUT A                  
DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z MEX NUMBERS. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND                   
INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH THE INCREASING GRADIENT...EXPECT            
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY ON MONDAY.                                                   
NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER THROUGH THE LAKES                       
REGION...NOW PASSING THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.               
DEW POINTS INCREASE TO THE LOWER 50S AHEAD OF IT WITH SURFACE AND               
925 MB LI/S DROPPING TO NEAR +1. FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER...            
AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED EXCEPT AT THE SURFACE WITH THE FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE. IN FACT WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30 PCT MONDAY NIGHT INTO                 
TUESDAY MORNING.                                                                
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE                 
REGION. MODELS ALL AGREE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH                 
AMERICAN TROF FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH STRONG             
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHER                 
MODELS...THE WRFHEMI...UK...ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL INDICATE A MUCH              
WEAKER WAVE AND IN SOME CASES NO REAL SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.               
GIVEN THIS WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST                 
MICHIGAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID AND LATE                 
PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE CONSENSUS IS NOT AS COLD AS THE                    
GFS...ESPECIALLY AT 850 MBS WHICH WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT A LITTLE            
MORE TEMPERED THAN THE GFS. STILL WILL HAVE TEMPS CLOSE TO 12Z                  
MEX...BECAUSE THE AIR IS COLD AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS AROUND            
TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-               
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ076-MIZ082-MIZ083...NOON SATURDAY TO 7 AM SUNDAY.                       
LAKE HURON...STORM WARNING...ALL OPEN WATERS...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...             
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...NOON SATURDAY                 
TO 7 PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
GALE WARNING...INNER SAGINAW BAY...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.                    
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...NOON SATURDAY TO 1 PM SUNDAY.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
323 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
SFC LOW PULLING INTO WRN PA WITH 2NDRY DEVEL UNDERWAY IN NW NC.                 
AREA HAS BEEN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW BUT OVER                 
THE LAST 2 HRS THE WAA HAS NEARLY SHUT DOWN. STRONG SRLY FLOW                   
CONTINUES BUT WITH THE LACK OF WAA THE SOURCE FOR LL ASCENT HAS                 
ALL BUT STOPPED. STILL PLENTY OF ACTION OFFSHORE THOUGH DUE TO                  
HIGHER TEMPS AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. OVER LAND HOWEVER THE ONLY               
REMAINING GENERATION FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE MID LEVEL H8 FALLS                
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND THE LAST MINUTE CONV ASSOC                 
WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW RUNS ROUGHLY FROM CLT TO AUG AND                
TLH. RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SPOTTY THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN               
TAPER QUICKLY FROM W TO E. EVEN IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WINDS OF ADV              
CRITERIA HAVE NOT REALLY MATERIALIZED SO THAT PRODUCT HAS BEEN                  
CANCELED EARLY. A MUCH DIFFERENT STORY OVER WATER DUE TO LACK OF                
FRICTION AND LL LAPSE RATES...SEE BELOW IN MARINE SECTION. THIS HAS             
ALLOWED SOME STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE BEACHES BUT MESNET SUGGESTS               
THAT THEY TOO ARE SHORT OF ADV CRITERIA. HIGH SURF AND MINOR BEACH              
EROSION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA WHEN THE                    
OFFSHORE WINDS START TAKING A BITE OUT OF THE H8 OF THE BREAKING                
WAVES. TIDES HAVE BEEN 0.5 OR MORE FT ABV NORMAL BUT STILL SHORT                
OF COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS.                                                     
MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/                                               
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL BE                    
BUILDING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL            
BE MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...BUT             
WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SLIGHTLY AS JUST ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IS                   
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD STILL BE            
SW OF THE AREA ON SUN WITH A LIGHT WSW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH               
PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND THEN JUST TO THE            
E BY DAYS END MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM SW TO NE SUN            
NIGHT AND THEN TO SE BY LATE MON. A WEAK SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO            
PENETRATE JUST INLAND FROM THE BEACHES MON AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD                
WILL BE DOMINATED BY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL START              
OUT JUST BELOW NORMAL AND END UP JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY MON                       
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEABREEZE WILL               
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE/THREE DEGREES.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS                 
DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAK NORTH FLOW BECOMES MORE              
ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY                 
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING                
THROUGH WITH LIMITED PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT               
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM DEPICTING A                 
RELATIVE LOWER LEVEL DRY SLO AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY                         
SLOT...INDICATING THE STRONG TILT IN THE VERTICAL OF THIS STRONG                
SYSTEM. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OVER AND                 
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE THROUGH AROUND            
DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND BRIEF IFR BUT                
FEEL THAT THE FORMER MERITS PREDOMINANT GROUPS/FCST. ONE LAST LINE              
OF HEAVIER PRECIP...BRIEF IFR...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER WILL                     
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. KLTX VWP SHOWING 40-50 KTS MORE OR LESS               
MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LOWEST 2KFT SO LLWS CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS              
UNTIL AROUND FROPA WHEN MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER SFC WINDS PAIRED WITH             
WEAKENING OF LL JET SHOULD MAKE LLWS CRITERIA NO LONGER BE MET.                 
DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL BE RAPID WITH FROPA AND VFR EXPECTED FOR              
REMAINDER OF PD AS GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER THRU AFTERNOON AND               
THEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM/TODAY...                                                             
GALE WARNING STILL IN EFFECT AS VERY STRONG GRADIENT CONTINUES                  
TO BRING VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WITH SUCH LARGE WAVES                
LIKELY SHELTERING BUOY ANEMOMETERS...THE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS                  
ARE PROBABLY MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ACRS              
MOST OF THE WATERS. KLTX VWP HAS BEEN INDICATING 50KTS AT 1-2KFT                
OCCASIONALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HRS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE                 
WATER INDICATE THAT A FEW GUSTS MAY HAVE BEEN THAT HIGH. WINDS                  
WILL ONLY DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE SWING TO                    
OFFSHORE WILL START TO OPEN UP A LARGER NR SHORE VS OFFSHORE DIFF               
IN WAVE H8.                                                                     
MID TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL DAMPEN SEA HEIGHTS SO THAT BY TONIGHT...              
SEAS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 6 FT OUT NEAR 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT                     
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH             
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.              
SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS SUN AND            
MON. WINDS WILL START OUT W THIS EVENING AND VEER TO NW OVERNIGHT AS            
THEY DIMINISH WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL N OF THE AREA CONTINUING            
TO MOVE AWAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA INTO THE EVE WITH A SOLID 15 TO 20 KT SUSTAINED FOR A GOOD             
PART OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO N SUN NIGHT AND THEN COME ALL               
THE WAY AROUND TO ESE DURING MON. WIND SPEEDS EARLY SUN WILL BE                 
AROUND 15 KT...BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN AND THROUGH MON...10 KT             
OR LESS.                                                                        
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.              
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEEK...KEEPING SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.               
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NCZ097-100-101 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.                 
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SCZ034-046 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.                     
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR AMZ250-252-254-256 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MBB                                                                
MID TERM...RJD                                                                  
AVIATION...MBB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
124 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                        
RAISED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY. WINDS AND SEA OBSERVATIONS OVER THE                
ATLANTIC WATERS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...WILL             
HAVE TO UP THE CURRENT SEAS FORECAST IN THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH                
WILL RESULT IN HIER SURF CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL NOW REACH HIGH SURF            
THRESHOLDS. NOW THAT WAS A MOUTHFUL.                                            
LOW TIDE OCCURS AROUND 6AM SATURDAY. EVENTHOUGH THE WORST OF THE                
ONSHORE WIND CONDITIONS AND SEAS OCCUR AROUND THIS TIME...COASTAL               
FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL NOT BE MET.                                               
WILL CONTINUE THE STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS DUE TO ONSHORE               
FLOW THAT CROSSES ATLANTIC SSTS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID            
70S.                                                                            
MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/                                        
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING ALONG THE COAST AS THE SUN RISES                 
SATURDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL            
BE ENDING AS THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND               
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN              
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD ADVECTION            
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A LITTLE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS. THESE SAME UNSTABLE              
LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL MIX DOWN HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT               
AND LEAD TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE DAY.                       
THE TEMPERATURE CURVE ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY NON-DIURNAL ALONG THE            
COAST WITH READINGS NEAR THE HIGH FOR THE DAY AT SUNRISE.                       
TEMPERATURES INLAND AT THIS SAME TIME SHOULD ALREADY HAVE FALLEN                
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF THEIR EARLIER MORNING PEAK. DAYTIME HEATING WILL            
LEAD TO ANOTHER PEAK...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BEGIN TO SLIDE AGAIN              
BY MID AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.                                 
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS                
HIGH PRESSURE CRAWLS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES. ENOUGH OF A              
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FULL                     
DECOUPLING...BUT A WEAKER GRADIENT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS              
TO DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM. WE HAVE UNDERCUT GFS MOS HIGHS ON SUNDAY              
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAINLY 65-68 DEGREES ACROSS THE              
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR CLIMO LEVELS NEXT WEEK AS DRY             
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND WEAK NORTH FLOW BECOMES MORE                  
ONSHORE. GUIDANCE SHOWS COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY                 
MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING                
THROUGH WITH LIMITED PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT               
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH...KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...UPDATED                                                             
RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE IN THE SHORT TERM DEPICTING A                 
RELATIVE LOWER LEVEL DRY SLO AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL DRY                         
SLOT...INDICATING THE STRONG TILT IN THE VERTICAL OF THIS STRONG                
SYSTEM. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OVER AND                 
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN NATURE THROUGH AROUND            
DAYBREAK. CIGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND BRIEF IFR BUT                
FEEL THAT THE FORMER MERITS PREDOMINANT GROUPS/FCST. ONE LAST LINE              
OF HEAVIER PRECIP...BRIEF IFR...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDER WILL                     
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. KLTX VWP SHOWING 40-50 KTS MORE OR LESS               
MAINTAINED WITHIN THE LOWEST 2KFT SO LLWS CARRIED AT ALL TERMINALS              
UNTIL AROUND FROPA WHEN MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER SFC WINDS PAIRED WITH             
WEAKENING OF LL JET SHOULD MAKE LLWS CRITERIA NO LONGER BE MET.                 
DRYING OF THE COLUMN WILL BE RAPID WITH FROPA AND VFR EXPECTED FOR              
REMAINDER OF PD AS GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY TAPER THRU AFTERNOON AND               
THEN RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
LATEST WIND AND SEA OBSERVATIONS ARE RUNNING HIER THAN CURRENTLY                
FCST. WILL MAKE THE APPROPRIATE CHANGES UPWARDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE             
TO KEEP SUSTAINED SPEEDS WITHIN GALES...BUT WILL LIKELY OBSERVE                 
SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE. ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHULD EASILY                 
PULL DOWN THE 45-55 KNOT WINDS FROM THE 925MB LEVEL.                            
MID TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                     
WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS             
THE INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET PULLS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE                
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT            
AS COLD AIR MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE GULF            
COAST STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH             
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                       
SEAS SATURDAY MORNING...STILL STIRRED UP BY THE INTENSE WINDS OF                
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 6-10 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL               
WATERS...TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN THE NC COASTAL WATERS. CONDITIONS               
FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL BE EVEN WORSE. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KNOCK THESE            
SEAS DOWN RATHER QUICKLY WITH SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS DROPPING               
BELOW 6 FT BY BEFORE SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY             
INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO ONLY 2-3 FT SEAS.                                      
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH                  
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY SHIFTING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY.              
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEEK...KEEPING SPEEDS 10 KT OR LESS.               
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...WIND ADVISORY NCZ097/100/101.                                              
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NCZ097/100/101.                                         
SC...WIND ADVISORY SCZ034/046.                                                  
  ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY SCZ034/046.                                             
MARINE...GALE WARNING SURF CITY TO S SANTEE RIVER.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MBB                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HOEHLER                                                            
MARINE SHORT...HOEHLER                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                     
.SECOND UPDATE...                                                               
A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER                
DELAWARE BAY. THE GALE WARNING WAS LEFT INTACT FOR UPPER DELAWARE               
BAY. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM, AND THE 03Z RUC ARE ALL STRONGER THAN THE             
PREVIOUS RUNS, SHOWING 925 HPA WINDS UP TO 70 KNOTS. EVEN IF ONLY 70            
PERCENT OF THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE, 50 KNOTS GUSTS ARE TO BE                  
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRST UPDATE...                                                                
UPDATED TEMPERATURE AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
TREND WILL BE A VERY SLOW RISE NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS              
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD                
AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED ZFP AFTER 8 PM TO SPRUCE UP                 
WORDING FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.                                             
&&                                                                              
RPW                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISC...                                                                
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
SHORT TERM IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE                 
FORECAST. WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHRTWV IS MOVING EAST INTO THE MID             
MISS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED            
AT 18Z OVER NW TENN...IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS FCST...BUT 1 MB                  
DEEPER. PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXTENDS NEWD               
FROM GLFMEX ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION...WITH A DRY SLOT FARTHER W               
INTO WRN TENN AND KY.                                                           
THE SURFACE LOW IS FCST TO TRACK NW OF OUR FCST AREA...ACROSS THE               
UPPER OH VALLEY AND INTO WRN NY BY SAT MORN. THE LOW IS ALSO FCST TO            
DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY IN THE 12 HOUR PERIOD FROM 06Z TO 18Z SAT.  SLY             
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH            
STRONGS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS.              
STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATER AND A HIGH WIND             
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ADJACECT LAND AREAS. WINDS FARTHER                  
INLAND WILL BE NOT QUITE AS STRONG...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY            
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REMAINED OF OUR FCST AREA. FCST               
WINDS AT 925 MB FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVER 50KT FOR THE WIND            
ADVISORY AREA.                                                                  
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 2.5            
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORN. AT THIS TIME IT IS FELT            
THAT MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN WILL FALL OVER A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD THAT            
ANY FLOODING WILL BE ISOLATED AND GENERALLY MINOR. HOWEVER...                   
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES               
COULD OCCUR EARLY SAT MORN. THE NWS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND              
ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER             
OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY SAT AS THE MID                
LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN.                                                      
THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN SAT NIGHT AS IT MOVES NEWD            
INTO SE CANADA. COLD ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL                  
COMBINE TO CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                  
ALTHOUGH THE 850 MB WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG BEHIND THE LOW...CONDS              
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMEMTUM. THUS A                
HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS                 
SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES                 
FARTHER NE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
USED HPC GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE            
MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES OR UPGRADES. THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK IS              
SHAPING UP TO BE ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS. HALLOWEEN LOOKS TO BE THE                 
NICEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S               
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO             
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING WITH IT               
OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN.  NOT EXPECTING HIGH QPF'S THIS FAR OUT AND            
KEPT RAINFALL TOTALS BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR NOW. MIGHT EVEN             
SEE SOME FLURRIES UP IN THE POCONOS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS               
DROP OFF BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO COOL US DOWN ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS               
STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS USUAL, THE                
POCONOS REGION AND NW NJ WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT COLDER.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AT MID AFTERNOON, CEILINGS WERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 5000 FEET AT             
ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AND THERE WERE NO RESTRICTIONS TO THE                
VSBY.  THE LEADING BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO                  
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.                                             
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING, WITH ALL OF OUR TAF            
SITES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER            
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
FOR THE HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WE'VE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR               
DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET EXPECTED AROUND THAT                  
TIME.  THERE MAY ALSO BE ISOLATED TSTMS AROUND DAYBREAK.  HOWEVER,              
WE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEIR MENTION IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE DEGREE OF             
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES AROUND MIDDAY ON             
SATURDAY.  FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WE'LL GET INTO            
THE WARM SECTOR WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND AND A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN               
CEILING AND VSBY VALUES.  AFTER THE FRONT PASSES WE'RE EXPECTING TO             
EXPERIENCE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A GUSTY WEST WIND.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WE'LL MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 6:00 AM             
ON MONDAY.  WE'LL LIKELY START TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS AS A STRONG              
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY                   
MORNING.  WE'LL MENTION GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS, THOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS             
AROUND 50 OR 55 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.                              
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON A GUSTY WEST WIND              
WILL SET UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STRONG AREA OF LOW             
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.TIDES...                                                                       
WE SHOULDN'T HAVE ANY TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES WITH SATURDAY'S MIDDAY              
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT.  WE WOULD NEED DEPARTURES CLOSE TO 2            
FEET TO BEGIN EXPERIENCING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.  THIS WILL                     
BASICALLY BE A ONE CYCLE SYSTEM AND DEPARTURES SHOULDN'T HAVE ENOUGH            
TIME TO BUILD THAT HIGH.  HOWEVER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HAVE SOME             
DIFFICULTY DRAINING AS THE TIDE BEGINS TO COME IN ON SATURDAY                   
MORNING.                                                                        
WITH A STRONG AND PERSISTENT WEST WIND EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF             
THE SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WE MAY EXPERIENCE BLOW OUT             
TIDES AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE ON SUNDAY.  WE'LL CONTINUE TO                
MONITOR FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...WIND ADVISORY FOR PAZ067>071 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.                         
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071 FROM 5 PM                   
     SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.                                                   
NJ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY              
     TO 6 PM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ008>010-012-015>019-021 UNTIL 11 AM                   
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NJZ013-014-020-022>027 UNTIL 11 AM                   
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
DE...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR DEZ001>004 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR DEZ001-002 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.                         
  ...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR DEZ003-004 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.                     
MD...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020 FROM 5 PM SATURDAY              
     TO 6 PM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.             
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430 UNTIL 5 AM MONDAY.                             
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455 FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM                
     MONDAY.                                                                    
  ...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ431-450>455 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AMC                                                                
LONG TERM...MEOLA                                                               
AVIATION/MARINE...IOVINO                                                        
MARINE UPDATE.../                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THIS                      
AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                
00Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING IMPRESSIVE UPPER                
S/W PLOWING SEWD THROUGH WI EARLY THIS MORNING. 00Z RAOBS/PROFILERS             
DEPICTING 130+KT 300MB JET OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED TO             
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 150KT AS IT DIVES SEWD. ALSO OF INTEREST ARE               
MASSIVE 300/500MB HEIGHT FALLS IN EXCESS OF 200 METERS NOTED AT KINL            
AND OVER SRN ONTARIO...AS WELL AS DOWN IN TN VALLEY. AT THE                     
SFC...RUC/MSAS INDICATING DEEPENING 992 SFC LOW OVER WRN OHIO AS OF             
08Z. CLOSER TO HOME...LOCAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATING SHOWERS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W NOW PUSHING EAST OF AREA WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING            
CLEARING SKIES OVERHEAD.                                                        
FOR TODAY...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ON WIND POTENTIAL AS SFC LOW                   
DEEPENS OVER ERN GREAT LAKES. GFS/WRF/RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN                  
DROPPING SFC PRESSURE TO AROUND 988MB OVER WRN NY BY 12Z...TO AROUND            
980MB BY 18Z SAT...AND TO AROUND 976MB BY 00Z SUN. AS A RESULT...SFC            
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN OVER SRN WI...WITH STRONGEST              
GRADIENT IN THE EASTERN CWA. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE            
LOW LEVEL WINDS FIELDS AS WELL /PEAKING AROUND 18Z/ WITH 925MB WINDS            
BETWEEN 35-40KTS...AND 850MB WINDS OF 45-50KTS. WITH DECENT AMOUNT              
OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...SFC TO 850B LAPSE RATES TURN NRLY DRY                
ADIABATIC...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC.               
ALSO OF CONCERN IS CURRENT KMKX VWP...WHICH IS INDICATING 45KTS AT              
LOWEST GATE...AND 60KTS AROUND 3K FEET...CURRENTLY UNDERDONE BY                 
MODELS. THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL              
LAKESHORE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS WAUKESHA AND WASHINGTON                         
COUNTIES...AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 30 MPH FOR A                      
TIME...WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.  OVERALL...EXPECTING THIS TO BE A              
LOWER END EVENT BUT WILL ERROR ON SIDE OF CAUTION. LITTLE CHANGE IN             
TEMPS TODAY...ALTHOUGH DID UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES AS IT            
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM AS OF LATE.                                      
QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE              
RIDGE DEVELOPS. STRONG WAA EXPECTED AHEAD OF NEXT LOW MOVING FROM               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY MONDAY                   
EVENING. GFS H8 TEMPS CLIMB TO 10-12C SUNDAY NIGHT...SETTING STAGE              
FOR AN UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ON MONDAY. SHOULD HIT 60F AT MANY                  
SITES...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON CLOUD COVER AS MODELS                 
SHOWING POTENTIALLY THICK CIRRUS DECK DVLPG...WHICH COULD REDUCE                
INSOLATION. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL POPS               
STILL WARRANTED...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS MEAGER. IN THE WAKE OF              
THIS SYSTEM...GREAT LAKES REGION TO TRANSITION TO A DRY NWLY FLOW               
ALOFT...AS POLAR VORTEX REDEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON BAY.  850MB TEMPS                
PROGGED TO FALL BACK INTO THE -7 TO -10C RANGE THROUGH                          
SATURDAY...FOR A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING                  
FOR WIZ052-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FOWLE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1210 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING UNDERWAY ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES WITH A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE DIVING SE INTO OHIO             
ON THE NOSE OF 150+ KNOT JET DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A                
RESULT...SFC LOW CENTERED OVER LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...              
WITH MSAS ANALYZED 3-HOUR PRESSURE CHANGES EXCEEDING 5 MB FROM                  
WESTERN QUEBEC TO THE EAST COAST. RUC80 DATA PEGGING STRONGEST                  
REGION OF QG UPWARD FORCING AND PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS             
NRN MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO...WITHIN REGION OF STRONGEST HEIGHT                   
FALLS/THERMAL CHANGES. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERE NOT PARTICULARLY COLD                
THIS MORNING (-2C AT 850 MB ON 12Z APX SOUNDING) PRECIPITATION TYPE             
AS USUAL LINKED TO ELEVATION WITH RAIN NEAR THE LAKES AT AT LOWER               
ELEVATIONS...TRANSITIONING BACK AND FORTH FROM RAIN TO BRIEF HEAVY              
SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MI. IN FACT WITHIN THE                  
HEAVIEST SNOW...HAVE SEEN VSBYS DOWN TO HALF A MILE OR LESS AND                 
BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS. TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRED QUICKER THAN                   
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT DUE TO STRONG DYNAMIC AND PRECIP EVAPORATIVE                 
COOLING. 12Z KAPX SOUNDING BEARS THIS OUT WITH A SATURATED MOIST                
ADIABATIC PROFILE AND ABOVE FREEZING LAYER LESS THAN 1000 FEET AGL.             
MEANWHILE...ON THE HEELS OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DRY SLOT PUNCHING              
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CORE OF -30C               
500 MB TEMPS PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP             
ACROSS THIS AREA. HAVE EVEN OBSERVED A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES IN              
SE MICHIGAN WITHIN THE DRY SLOT.                                                
FOR THE AFTERNOON...MID LEVEL WAVE/REGION OF STRONG HEIGHT                      
FALLS/BULLSEYE OF QG UPWARD FORCING FORECAST TO SLIDE OFF TO THE                
E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DRY SLOT TO THE SW NOSES UP INTO              
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUS...EXPECT PERSISTENT CATEGORICAL PRECIP                 
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE EAST...TRANSITIONING INTO A            
NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT REGIME (LAKE-850 MB DELTA T/S RUNNING AROUND 15C            
THROUGH THE DAY). BUT GIVEN HOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA HAVE                
WARMED A BIT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST                    
CASES...WILL KEEP THE MIX GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN UPPER MI              
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR              
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.                                                           
WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO RAMP UP AND ALL MARINE/LAND BASED HEADLINES              
WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR NOW.                                                     
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                         
.DISCUSSION...EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF            
THE JET...A 35-40 UNIT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS ROLLING SE OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG THE NOSE OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER JET CORE ALSO               
PUNCHING SE THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...CARVING OUT A                   
NEGATIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH AND DRIVING A SURFACE COLD                    
FRONT/ASSOCIATED EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN INTO THE WESTERN LAKES.                 
MEANWHILE...WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET...VIGOROUS LOWS AT            
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WERE ROLLING ENE THROUGH THE MID OHIO RIVER               
VALLEY. WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALL REGIME BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WATER             
VAPOR/IR IMAGERY DEPICTED A BROAD BAROCLINIC FANNING OUT ACROSS THE             
EASTERN LAKES...COINCIDENT WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE                
FALLS.                                                                          
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WILL PHASE TODAY...RESULTING IN A             
DEEP/CLOSED CIRCULATION ALOFT AND A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW               
THAT WILL ROLL NE THEN N THROUGH THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY TO THE               
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER BY THIS EVENING. FORECAST ATTENTION WILL FOCUS            
ON THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SPECIFICALLY...              
THE MAIN PROBLEMS OF THE DAY INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION AND WIND GUST            
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
AT ISSUANCE TIME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING                   
THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THAT FRONT SHOULD            
CLEAR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND DAYBREAK. PER UPSTREAM RADAR                   
TRENDS...DEPICTING AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER              
ASCENT REGIME AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET MAX...THE FRONT WILL             
PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THEN...AS THE                 
UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW                 
DEEPENS OVER WESTERN PA/NY...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELDS ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS WILL MERGE...AND THE              
PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA...WITHIN               
THE STRONG/DEEP LAYER ASCENT REGIME UNDER THE COMMA HEAD.                       
INITIALLY...THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN               
(AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN A PLUME OF 500 MB TEMPS -30 TO                     
-35C/700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM UNDER THE JET CORE ACROSS S/SW             
COUNTIES)...THEN THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC COOLING/COLD ADVECTION              
WILL DRIVE 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE -4C TO -7C RANGE BY 0Z...SO RAIN               
WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW. BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP               
LAYER ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED CONTRIBUTION FROM DYNAMIC COOLING...AND             
DUE TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL (SUPPORTED BY MODEL CROSS SECTIONS                  
REVEALING FOLDED SATURATED THETA-E SURFACES/NEGATIVE EPV IN THE                 
600-400 MB LAYER) FEEL THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR MORE                   
RAPIDLY THEN DEPICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH PRECIP TURNING TO            
ALL SNOW BY MIDDAY (AS 0Z GFS FREEZING LEVELS FALL BELOW 1000 FT                
AGL) OVER THE EASTERN UP AND ACROSS HIGHER INLAND ELEVATIONS OF                 
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE              
JET PUNCHING SE THROUGH THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE 0Z NAM/GFS                 
AGREE THAT MOMENTUM WILL CARRY THE UPPER LOW/COMMA CLOUD/DEEP                   
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY                      
EXPECTED...AND STEADY PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO PURE LAKE EFFECT                
SHOWERS AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ROLLS ENE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS FALLING TO 5-6 KFT AND LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS              
AROUND 15C...LOCAL GUIDANCE POINTS TO MINOR-LIGHT SNOW                          
ACCUMULATIONS...THUS...MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL                 
PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN INCH (PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES              
IF PRECIP CHANGES TO SNOW EARLIER) ACROSS HIGHER INLAND ELEVATIONS              
OF NW LOWER MI.                                                                 
MEANWHILE...WIND FIELDS WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH                 
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND                 
ISALLOBARIC ENHANCEMENT PROVIDED BY THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST              
OF THE REGION...AND BY A DEEP MIXED LAYER TAPPING INTO 45-55 KNOT               
950-850 MB WINDS...AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BECOME COMMON.               
WILL CONTINUE GALE/STORM WARNINGS ALREADY ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE                  
MARINE ZONES (LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND GALE WARNINGS             
FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN                 
EFFECT...INTO SUNDAY NIGHT). ON LAND...WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORIES            
THAT WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT. WHERE HIGH WIND WATCHES WERE IN EFFECT             
FOR NE LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR CHEBOYGAN             
AND PRESQUE ISLE COUNTIES...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF TIGHTEST                   
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...COASTAL EXPOSURE AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE            
WILL SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES               
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES THAT WERE IN THE WATCH.                       
TONIGHT...WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP MOIST SHIELD WILL LINGER ACROSS             
EXTREME NE AREAS...FROM ANJ TO THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...THUS                  
BUMPED UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THERE FOR THIS             
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND               
5 KFT...LAKE-850 MB DELTA TS 16-18C AND 850-700 MB RH REMAINING                 
ABOVE 60% WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN FAVORED                
AREAS...MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN UP AND INLAND NW LOWER                   
MICHIGAN AND MIXED RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN/HURON                      
SHORELINES. LOCAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST OF MAX SNOW            
AMOUNTS 2-3 INCHES AT THE HIGHEST INLAND LOCATIONS IN NW LOWER                  
MI...AND BLOWING SNOW COULD DEVELOP AS WELL. FROM A HEADLINE                    
PERSPECTIVE...FOR MINIMUM CONFUSION AND BECAUSE INITIALLY STRONG WIND           
WILL CONSTITUTE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE ONGOING              
WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR NW FLOW AREAS...BUT THE DAY                 
SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A SHIFT TO WINTER WEATHER (SNOW/BLOWING              
SNOW) ADVISORIES FOR A FEW COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.            
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS (MIXED WITH RAIN NEAR THE COAST)             
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A STEADY DRYING TREND                    
(850-700 MB RH DECREASING BELOW 30%)...GRADUAL 850 MB WARMING AND               
LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A                   
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...AND WILL CONTINUE THE             
DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                  
AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY INTO THE 50S AT              
MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE STRAITS...ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL            
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THAT                            
FRONT...MOISTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO              
THE -10C TO -12C RANGE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW              
SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WAS COVERED WELL IN             
ONGOING FORECASTS...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT NEEDED.                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HIGH WIND WARNING...THIS                   
AFTERNOON                                                                       
        THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MIZ017-018.                                    
       WIND ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY                            
        MORNING...MIZ008-015-016-019>036-041-042.                               
       STORM WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LHZ347-348.                     
       GALE WARNING...THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LSZ321-322-                      
        LMZ341-342-344-345-323-LHZ345-346-349.                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
232 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.                 
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
GENERALLY WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A             
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MARCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN                 
REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATING SNOW PACK DIMINISHING ACROSS               
PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SE PLAINS...WITH BEST COVERAGE                
NORTH AND EAST OF A MONUMENT TO FALCON LINE AND SOUTH AND WEST OF A             
BEULAH TO LA JUNTA LINE. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATING SNOW PACK               
PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST            
OF WESTCLIFFE AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE            
CRISTO MTS FROM NORTH OF CRESTONE TO JUST NORTH OF THE SAND DUNES.              
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE                 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN BREAKS DOWN WITH WESTERLY              
FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE AS A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING                  
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ATTM UNDERCUTS THE                 
RIDGE. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT (H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +4C TO +8C) AND                    
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW...SHOULD SEE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS                  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS                   
THE EASTERN MTS AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION BELT SETS UP AND THE                 
LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AS A DRY                 
AIRMASS CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL                   
COOLING. I HAVE GONE AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY                   
DESPITE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK LEE            
TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR GOOD                
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING. I DID HOWEVER TEMPER TEMPERATURES IN              
THE LAST OF THE SNOW COVERED REGIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MON THROUGH SAT)                                                               
...ONE MORE MILD/WARM DAY MON...                                                
...COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE ACROSS EASTERN CO FOR MON NIGHT/TUE...          
MON...MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS PROJECTED ACROSS THE              
CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A MINOR SOUTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SYSTEM               
RACES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NOT A LOT OF                     
MOISTURE WITH IT AND THE GFS...WHICH IS TYPICALLY WET...HAS NO QPF              
AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NORTHERN UPPER LEVEL JET                 
STREAM AND ITS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES                
AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIVES TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN CO MON                 
AFTERNOON. GIVEN H7 TEMPERATURES OF 0C TO +4C...TEMPERATURES IN                 
THE 60S TO NEAR 70F WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND IT MAY               
BE BREEZY AT TIMES.                                                             
MON NIGHT AND TUE...SHALLOW COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO BLAST                 
THROUGH EASTERN CO MON EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS THE COLD               
FRONT WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW...SURFACE TO H75. SURFACE HIGH                     
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES               
ON TUE AND THAT SHOULD WEDGE THE CP AIR MASS UP AGAINST EASTERN CO              
AND THE FOOTHILLS. VERY TRICKY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY TUE. 12KM WRF              
IS HINTING AT IFR-VFR STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL LATE MON NIGHT                  
INTO TUE. LOW LEVEL RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW(SFC-H75) ALONG I-25                   
CORRIDOR ON TUE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE                     
SOUTHERN PALMER DIVIDE(KCOS) JUXTAPOSED WITH WEAK INSENTROPIC FLOW              
COULD PROMOTE LIFR-IFR STRATUS/FOG EVENT TUE FOR KCOS. HOWEVER...               
TOUGH CALL THIS FAR OUT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN TEMPERATURES MAY                 
NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S ACROSS EASTERN CO. THE GFS IS A LITTLE                   
DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT...THEN WE                  
MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50F ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO.              
GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CP AIR MASS...THE WARMER SPOTS                  
WILL PROBABLY BE THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS TUE. AS                
FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A WEAK WESTERLY WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH               
THE FLOW AND MIDLEVEL STATIC STABILITIES WILL BE APPROACHING                    
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. GIVEN SOME H7-H4 MOISTURE....THERE MAY BE                  
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY AND                  
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. INSENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT THE                     
305K...300K...AND 295K LAYERS SHOW WEAK UPGLIDE(ASCENT) OVER THE                
CENTRAL ROCKIES... SO THAT MIGHT HELP GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION.              
12KM WRF PRINTS OUT A LITTLE QPF WEST OF I-25 TUE AM...BUT THE GFS              
HAS NONE. PLAN TO STICK WITH VERY LOW POPS...4 PERCENT OR                       
LESS...EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OUR LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
MIGHT BE TOO HIGH AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WILL                      
MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST. METZE                                                
WED THROUGH SAT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD          
WITH LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. METZE                
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
305 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER LK HURON...WITH DEEP SFC LOW IN                   
UPSTATE NY/ST LAW RVR VALLEY...PRESSURE GRADIENT QUITE STRONG ACROSS            
THE OHIO VALLEY AS SFC HI BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. GUSTY              
WINDS OVER THE REGION...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35MPH POSSIBLE              
THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STRONG 250MB JET                  
ROARING AT 140+KTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...THIS JET IS              
HELPING TO CREATE SOME LIFT AND HAS PRODUCED A LARGE AREA OF MID                
LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM IL NW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS              
IN STRONG AGREEMENT THRU THE SHORT TERM...WILL USE RUC TO START THE             
FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN BLEND IN WITH THE 12KM WRF/NAM THRU THE                
REST OF THE PERIOD.                                                             
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MAIN                               
FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE THE WIND AND AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL                    
CLOUDINESS. AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LESSEN DUE TO THE SFC LOW                 
MOVING FURTHER INTO NE QUEBEC...WINDS WILL DROP TONIGHT TO AROUND OR            
LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE STRONG            
JET WILL BRING THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN                  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...HAVE WENT A DEGREE OR TWO               
HIGHER THAN MOS ACROSS THIS AREA BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND A MOS                
BLEND ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY DAYBREAK              
SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC...THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE             
START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SFC HI START TO NUDGE INTO THE            
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.                                            
SUNDAY...THE JET ENERGY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TAKING              
THE CLOUDS WITH IT AS MUCH DRIER AIR WILL WORK ACROSS THE MID OHIO              
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY FROM WEST TO EAST. A MAJORITY...IF NOT ALL OF              
THE REGION SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY MIDDAY...SOME THICKER CIRRUS MAY              
HANG AROUND ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS THOUGH INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.               
SFC RIDGING BUILDS DURING THE DAY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY EVEN                     
MORE...WITH MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WITH THE TREND OF THE                
LAST FEW WEEKS...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS SLIGHTLY FOR THE HIGHS...EVEN                
THOUGH H850 TEMPS ARE RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE MOST                      
SIGNIFICANT RISES OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.                   
SCHOTT                                                                          
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                 
THE PICK OF THIS WEEK WILL BE MONDAY IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPERATURES.             
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                    
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS            
A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH             
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN              
UP MONDAY BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND NAM             
DISAGREE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH            
THE GFS THE FASTER OF THE MODELS AS THE NAM KEEPS A VERY DRY TEXAS              
FLOW LONGER BEFORE OPENING UP THE GULF OF MEXICO. WE WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THE WETTER GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AND BEGIN TO MENTION POPS               
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER THE WEST CWFA. LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES              
THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SO WILL ADD                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD.                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....                                                  
A MOSTLY DRY BUT COOL PERIOD IS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSING AN UPPER               
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY TO THE CANADIAN EAST              
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY            
IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST                  
PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LITTLE WAVE             
FORMING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL HOLD PRECIPITATION OVER THE                  
FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE                
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND BECOME CENTERED OF THE AREA             
BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL               
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS THURSDAY... FRIDAY... AND SATURDAY                
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. --JA                        
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
401 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE WIND POTENTIAL               
FOR TONIGHT AND CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW.                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST                 
ONTARIO. WEAK SHORTWAVES SWEEPING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW ARE              
OVER WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS MUCH OF            
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A DEEP LOW             
JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE NORTH               
PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTER GRADIENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO            
SYSTEMS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH             
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 45 MPH MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                            
THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT PULLING THE SHORTWAVE            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI              
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MOIST LAYER BETWEEN                 
800MB AND 850MB WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE                 
NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER EASTERN LAKE                     
SUPERIOR...THE SHOWER ACTIVITIES WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN U.P.                   
OVERNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE                   
TONIGHT. I PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON THIS.                             
THE LOW WILL PUSH EVEN FARTHER EAST ON SUNDAY TAKING THE SHORTWAVE              
ENERGY WITH IT. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EAST END OF               
THE U.P. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP A                
LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 850MB AND MID LAYER AT AND ABOVE 500MB. THE              
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A            
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                                           
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL NAVIGATE OVER THE U.P. ON MONDAY. WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CONSIDERABLE LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.                  
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN AN AREA ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST END OF THE FORECAST MONDAY            
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE                        
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40F THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND                    
EVENING. THUS WILL ADJUST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ACCORDINGLY.                   
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT              
WILL ALSO PASS OVER AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING IN COLD AIR. A THERMAL             
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LOWER THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO -10C               
OVER THE WESTERN U.P. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE            
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF             
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG                
INVERSION AROUND 850MB AND AN INVERTED V PROFILE BELOW THIS LEVEL.              
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF LES WHICH COULD OCCUR.                          
ECMWF AND GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP ENSEMBLE. THE              
MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SWING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY             
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE SYSTEM WILL            
SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME IN ON                 
SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL RELOCATE OVER JAMES BAY ON THURSDAY              
AS A 1025MB RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER             
VALLEY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO            
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE RELOCATING OVER THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH                  
SATURDAY. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF              
THIS LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH             
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SINCE THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN                
ONTARIO...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MORE LIKELY RECEIVE THE RAIN/SNOW                  
SHOWERS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING E 2/3 LK SUPERIOR.              
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ001 4 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ006 8 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                 
     WIND ADVISORY MIZ007 11 AM-8 AM EDT SUNDAY.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
302 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN            
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL TIMING              
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES FROM THIS AFTERNOON              
SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LOW                
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A NORTHWEST                
FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. BAND OF CIRRUS ALONG SOUTH                
EDGE OF ULJ CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FADE TO THE NORTHEAST THIS                      
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SURFACE OBS AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAK                  
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWEST              
KANSAS. NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARE                      
ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA. BREEZY WINDS AND INFILTRATION OF              
DRIER AIR HAVE RAISED SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REAL PUNCH OF DRIER AIR IS STILL WEST OF THE               
CWA AS EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. RH              
VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA...EVEN THE              
FAR WEST. CONSIDERING THIS AND THAT CONDITIONS WILL START TO COOL               
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WILL NOT NEED ANY FIRE WEATHER                
HIGHLIGHTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                  
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS             
THE ULJ AXIS PUSHES NORTHEAST WITH ATTENDANT CIRRUS EXITING THE CWA             
TO THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP            
INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW TURNS            
THE UPPER FLOW ZONAL TO WEAKLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
ON SUNDAY. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CROSS-MOUNTAIN              
FLOW...HELPING TO GRADUALLY TURN LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO               
SOUTHERLY DURING THE DAY. IN THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...H85               
TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TEENS AND WITH A NEARLY CLOUD-FREE SKY                 
EXPECTED...HIGHS IN THE 70S STILL LOOK ON TRACK. SOUTHWEST WINDS                
STAY UP A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT...HELPING TO KEEP LOW TEMPS A LITTLE                 
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.                                      
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE               
AREA ON MONDAY. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL                    
UNCERTAIN...MAKING FOR A BIT OF A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. THE NAM HAS             
THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AROUND 18Z...WITH THE GFS A LITTLE              
SLOWER. THE OTHER FACTOR TEMPERATURE WISE IS THERE LOOKS TO BE A                
DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. BEST GUESS             
FOR NOW IS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. WITH                  
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRY AIR AT                   
LOW-LEVELS...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY. NORTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY               
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND GIVEN RECENT WARM                        
WEATHER...THIS BRINGS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MIND. HOWEVER...IT               
LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH ON MONDAY TO PRECLUDE              
THE NEED FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.                                       
.LONG TERM...POST TUESDAY MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS              
EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY TIME FRAME AS THE CWFA                
REMAINS IN A VERY DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUGGESTS             
NIL PROBABILITIES.                                                              
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK CHILLY...AS AFTER INITIAL            
COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND AND               
LEAVES THE AREA IN A WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT WIND FIELD. NOT FAVORABLE          
FOR WARMING...ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF SUN WILL TAKE THE EDGE. HALLOWEEN              
NOT LOOKING TOO SPOOKY WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY                
SKIES BUT QUITE COOL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES.                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY PROJECTED TO MOVE OFF INTO THE OHIO               
VALLEY FRIDAY/SATURDAY...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FROM MODERATING                  
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWFA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KB/MLM                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
242 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                   
NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH REGION ATTM. ASSOCD SFC               
CD FNT IS CROSSING REGION ATTM...BUT ALL PRECIP HAS LONG SINCE                  
MOVED OFFSHR WITH MID/UPR LVL DRY SLOT. SKIES ARE GENLY PTLY TO                 
MSTLY SUNNY...WITH WINDS IN THE BREEZY/WINDY CATEGORY. HWVR...WINDS             
THRUT REGION CURRENTLY BLO WIND ADVY CRITERIA...AND THERE IS NOT                
EVIDENCE IN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OR MODELS THAT WINDS WILL                     
SUBSTANTIALLY INCRS THE REST OF THE AFTN OR THIS EVENING.                       
THEREFORE...WILL NOT RE-ISSUE WIND ADVY. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO                  
REGION AT LO LVLS...AND GRADUAL DROPOFF IN WINDS TNGT...SHOULD                  
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPR 30S INLAND/LWR MD ERN SHORE...AND              
MID 40S ALONG THE CST.                                                          
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO                     
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.                
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUN NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO                 
NEAR TNGT'S LEVELS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
DOWNSLOPE WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL MON-              
WED...WITH HIGHS MANY AREAS AOA 70 ALL 3 DAYS. COULD SEE AN 80                  
DEGREE READING INLAND ON TUESDAY...BUT THINK WET GROUND WILL                    
TEMPER WARMING. NEXT CDFNT MOVES THROUGH WED/EARLY THU WITH A                   
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THIS FNT LOOKS LESS OMINOUS FROM THE                        
STANDPOINT OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WOULD BE NICE...GIVEN OUR                   
RECENT VERY WET PERIOD. COOLER AND DRIER FOR THU-SAT.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH WINDY. WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT ANY              
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT FROM THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND FRESHLY              
DAMPENED SFC.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
INITIAL TROF CROSSED THE WATERS EARLIER THIS MORNING BRINGING W/ IT             
MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS. GALE WARNING HEADLINE REMAINED IN PLACE              
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA HAS DROPPED INTO A LULL BTW            
S/WVS (DOWN TO HIGH SCA CRITERIA) HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW CONTS                    
ROTATING N AND W OF NEW ENGLAND...MOVING N OF NEW BRUNSWICK...WHATS             
BEST DESCRIBED AS A SECONDARY SURGE, THE WINDS INCREASE SHARPLY BTW             
NOW AND 03Z TONIGHT. 925 MB WINDS RISE FROM 20-25 KT TO AS HIGH AS              
40 KTS ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NAM AND GFS. LATEST RUC ALSO CONFIRMS               
THIS. SO THEREFORE HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE FLAGS TO CONT INTO TONIGHT.            
AS FOR SUN MORN...WINDS WILL SLACKEN FROM W/SW TO SCA CRITERIA OVER             
THE BAY...CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. NORTHERN             
COAST WILL REMAIN IN GALE THRU MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY               
NIGHT WHEN WINDS WILL LESSEN FINALLY TO ENACT A SCA INSTEAD.                    
SCA HEADLINES FOR CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND WILL LIKELY END EARLY            
MON WITH HIGH PRES BUILT OVER THE WATERS...WITH SEAS HOPEFULLY NOT FAR          
BEHIND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ630>633-656-658 UNTIL 5 AM SUNDAY.                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-656-658 FROM 5 AM SUNDAY               
     TO 9 PM SUNDAY.                                                            
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ650-652-654 UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.                         
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9              
     PM SUNDAY.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...SAMMLER                                                       
AVIATION...CURRY                                                                
MARINE...FLECHTNER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va