EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
LEADING EDGE OF MUCH DRIER AIR STILL HUNG UP OVER FAR NRN FL ATTM.              
BNDRY SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHRT WV DEPECTED             
IN WATER VAPOR IMG AS WELL AS RUC/MESO-ETA. BNDRY SHOULD SLIP THRU              
FCST AREA LATER TONIGHT AS WV GOES BY...BUT A BIT LATER THAN PREV               
FCST. MAIN CONCERN HERE IS MIN TEMPS. AS LOW DEW PT AIR ARRIVES                 
TEMPS SHUD FALL QUICKLY SO WILL ONLY MAKE MINIMAL ADJ TO TEMPS OVER             
NRN FCST AREA. WILL RAISE TEMPS TO THE S AS WELL WHERE SURGE MAY BE             
MODIFIED SLGTLY BY TRAJ...HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIT THE LONGEST...AND             
BNDRY MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE. THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH                 
RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE THAT HAS REVISED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY SINCE               
12Z GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO REMOVE POPS FROM FCST. EVE SHRA ACTVTY HAS              
DIMINISHED AND AS LAND AREAS STABILIZE CHANCES OF SHRA TO REDEVELOP             
ALNG BNDRY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL.                                                
MARINE...STRONGER WINDS BEHIND COLD SURGE HAVE YET TO ARRIVE IN NRN             
WATERS. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE AND PRESENCE OF SHRT WV MAY DELAY                 
ONSET SOMEWHAT BUT STILL SHUD MAKE IT INTO SRN WATERS BY MORNING.               
WILL CONTINUE SCA BUT DELAY TIMING OF STRONGER WINDS SLIGHTLY.                  
.MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                                      
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN                                                        
AVIATION/FIRE WX...KELLY                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
750 PM MDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
WL BE MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS OVER ENTIRE CWFA. LATEST LOW              
LVL PROFILER WINDS...PRESSURE FALLS...AND LATEST RUC...                         
SUPPORT/INDICATE THAT SFC TROF WL PUSH ABT HALF WAY INTO CWFA BY 12Z.           
SO WL NOT ONLY HAVE TO UPDATE FIRST PERIOD FOR WINDS TO BE MORE                 
WLY...BUT WL HAVE TO ADJUST SECOND PERIOD BASED ON ABV. DPS AND WLY             
WINDS SUPPORT CURRENT MINS.                                                     
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
149 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
RUC40 AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE CWA IN THE             
WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM OVER OHIO. 900-750MB RH FIELDS PICK UP ON              
CURRENT CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WELL...WITH CLEARING LINE FROM KSPI TO               
NEAR KBNA. 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -28C AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF              
6.5 TO 7 OVER CLEAR AREAS...AND SURE ENOUGH SOME CU ARE FORMING                 
WHICH SHOULD ACT TO FILL IN THOSE CLEAR SLOTS. 700MB OMEGAS                     
INDICATING POSITIVE VALUES UPSTREAM OF OHIO LOW...BUT WITH COLD                 
500MB TEMPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON               
AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 46 TO 51 RANGE. BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT               
HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OF CWA SO WINDS ARE AROUND 10-20 MPH...AFTER AN             
EARLY MORNING GUST AT PARIS KY SCHOOL-NET SITE OF 48 MPH. MID-LEVEL             
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE              
CENTRAL US...AND 1032MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                     
COMPARING THE 12Z ETA/AVN DATA TO THE RUC40 AND SATELLITE IMAGES                
SHOW THAT THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER FCST DURING THE               
FIRST 6 HOURS. THE 500MB HEIGHT PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO THE OHIO LOW            
IN THE ETA MATCHES UP BETTER...ALONG WITH THE 850MB RH FIELDS                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS OVER IN/IL/KY. THE AVN HAS A LARGE               
AREA OF NEARLY SATURATED AIR AT 850MB WHILE THE ETA RH'S ARE MORE               
AROUND 70%...WHICH AGREES BETTER WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUD            
COVER.                                                                          
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW MOVES INTO SRN            
ONTARIO. SFC HIGH TRANSLATES INTO SRN MS RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z...WITH             
WINDS REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY. ETA SHOWING 850MB RH VALUES NEAR 70%             
OVER THE CWA AT 6Z...BUT I THINK WE'LL LOOSE MOST/ALL OF THE                    
CONVECTIVE INDUCED CLOUD COVER BY 0-2Z. MESOETA TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS            
SHOWING SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IN SFC-700MB COLUMN THROUGH 6Z OVER                
NORTH/EAST...SO WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT              
THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EARLY EVENING...SO I'LL            
MENTION THOSE. IN THE NORTH...5-10KT FLOW WILL PERSIST CLOSER TO                
DEPARTING LOW SO LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S (MID 30S-LEX). IN THE            
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SFC HIGH...I'LL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID            
30S WITH A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST AS WINDS WILL LIGHTEN MORE THAN              
IN NORTH.                                                                       
TOMORROW...1025MB SFC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED                
WITH ERN CANADA LOW MOVES EASTWARD. LEVELS ABOVE 850MB WILL GET                 
QUITE DRY (<10%) AS 700-500MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES. MESO-ETA                    
TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOWING 60-70% RH'S HANGING ON BELOW 850MB                 
THROUGH 21Z/WED EAST OF I-65. WITH THIS IN MIND I'LL ADD AFTERNOON              
PC CONDITIONS IN THE EAST (850MB LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM)...AND KEEP              
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. I'LL FOLLOW THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR                  
MAXIMA WITH MID 50S (SDF/BWG) AND LOW 50S (LEX)...AS MESO-ETA                   
NUMBERS SEEM TOO COOL.                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER US AS WINDS BECOME                 
NONEXISTENT. WITH LIGHT SFC FLOW...NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF...AND SFC              
TD'S NEAR 30F WE SHOULD SEE NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS IN SOME                    
LOCATIONS. I'LL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND GO TOWARDS THE MESO-ETA                   
NUMBERS FOR LOWS...A GRADIENT WITH LOWER 30S SOUTH TO MID 30S NORTH.            
THURSDAY...850-500MB RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 20-30%...SO I'LL GO               
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH TO SUNNY IN THE SOUTH. RETURN FLOW                
PATTERN SETS UP AS SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND SFC                  
TROUGH FORMS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN HIGH                   
PLAINS. AS ON WEDNESDAY...I'LL GO WITH GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAXIMA              
AS MESO-ETA SEEMS TOO COLD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.              
SFC TROUGH MAKES A MOVE TOWARDS CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...AND A FEW                  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AS PWAT'S RISE TO 0.75" BUT PRECIP              
SHOULD STAY WEST OF CWA. I'LL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WEST/MOSTLY CLEAR                
EAST WITH LOWS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH             
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. 45-50 WILL DO FOR MOST                  
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
REMNANTS OF TROUGH PASS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED DYNAMICS              
AND MOISTURE I AM NOT CONFIDENT IN PRECIP CHANCES...SO I'LL LEAVE               
FCST PC. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMP DROP FROM                
THURSDAY. I'LL GO WITH LOW TO MID 60S AS PER MEX NUMBERS.                       
SATURDAY INTO THE EXTENDED I HAVE USED THE ENSEMBLE MOS DATA TO                 
CREATE SENSIBLE WX. I TENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MEMBERS SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY...AND HELD OFF ON THE PRECIP THAT THE OPERATIONAL MRF CREATES            
ON TUESDAY (HIGH VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS - 18 TO 48% POP).                       
THANKS FOR COORDINATION JKL.                                                    
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
SMALLCOMB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
949 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
ZONE UPDATE JUST SENT TO ADJUST POPS...TEMPS...AND WINDS. BASED ON              
SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z RUC40 DATA...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE              
OVER CWA IN WAKE OF LOW OVER LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES HERE AT THE                
OFFICE ARE NEAR 42...WITH SCHOOL-NET SITES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA                  
SHOWING UPPER 30S. DOT SITES ACROSS CENTRAL KY SHOWING 41-42.                   
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS MOST ZONES...WE SHOULD STAY IN              
THE 40S MOST OF THE DAY. LOWERED WINDS A TAD SINCE MAIN FORCING HAS             
MOVED WELL NORTHEAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 10-15 KTS                     
SUSTAINED. RAW DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S...COFFEE WEATHER.                
.SDF...NONE                                                                     
SMALLCOMB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
410 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
AT 07Z RAIN AREA MOVING ACROSS FA WITH FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN               
PARTS OF FA. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND MOVING TO THE               
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW LONG TO KEEP CLOUDS AND MENTION              
OF SHOWERS IN FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                       
MODELS CONSISTENT TAKING DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH             
RUC SEEMS TO BE CLOSEST WITH SURFACE POSITION AT 06Z. HOWEVER ALL               
MODELS TAKE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM FA               
DURING THE DAY TODAY. NGM SEEMS TO HANG ON TO HIGHER POPS TOO LONG              
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL GO CLOSER TO LOWER AVN MOS.                          
TIME SECTIONS KEEP HIGHER...AND DEEPER RH OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF FA             
ALL DAY THEN DECREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT. RH IS LOWER ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH. ALSO SOME UPWARD MOTION REMAINS OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY               
TODAY. THIS GOES ALONG WITH MODELS KEEPING CLOUDS OVER FA TODAY THEN            
SLOWLY DECREASING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT.                              
WITH COLD AIR OVER FA TODAY AND WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH                 
ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE                 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER WILL LOWER POPS SOME TO BE               
MORE IN LINE THE AVN MOS. WITH CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS TEMPERATURES              
WILL RISE ONLY A FEW DEGREES TODAY.                                             
AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS OVER FA...LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.             
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL KEEP FROST FROM FORMING. WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO             
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                            
ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO FA AND MOST AREAS            
WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...GENERALLY                
ALONG LINES OF AVN MOS.                                                         
DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. AVN MOS LOOKS GOOD.                     
.SDF...NONE                                                                     
SCHOLZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1055 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                     
SOME MINOR TOUCH UPS TO THE GOING FORECAST. DEVELOPING LOW OVER                 
TOLEDO OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL                
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.                               
REGIONALLY...LIGHTNING IS LIMITED TO ONE OR TWO STROKES EVERY FEW               
HOURS. I WILL TERM ANY PRECIPITATION AS SHOWERS...SINCE I WOULD BE              
SURPRISED IF WE SAW MORE THAN A COUPLE STROKES AS THIS SLIDES                   
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED...MAINLY IN THE WEST.               
MANY OF THE MOUNTAIN TOWNS LIKE CUMBERLAND AND PETERSBURG WERE STILL            
IN THE 40S AT 10 AM.  CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE FRONT IS ON OUR WESTERN             
DOORSTEP IN WEST VIRGINIA. LATEST 12Z RUC40 STILL HAS THE TIMING                
AROUND 00Z FOR WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...EXITING LOWER SOUTHERN                
MARYLAND AND ANNAPOLIS BY ABOUT 02Z. AS FOR WINDS...15 MPH GUSTING              
TO 25 MPH SHOULD WORK WITH SSE BECOMING WSW. MAY BE SOME STRONGER               
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON THE RIDGES...BUT STRONGEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE              
AND 850 STAY WEST OF THE EASTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.                            
STRONG                                                                          
FCSTID = 78                                                                     
DCA   68  49  61  38 /  30  30   0   0                                          
BWI   70  47  59  33 /  20  30   0   0                                          
MRB   64  42  57  31 /  40  20   0   0                                          
IAD   67  43  59  32 /  30  30   0   0                                          
CHO   67  46  60  34 /  30  30   0   0                                          
HGR   64  42  56  30 /  40  20   0   0                                          
NHK   70  48  60  35 /  20  30   0   0                                          
W99   55  41  55  29 /  60  40  10   0                                          
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1109 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                     
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY N/NE PROGRESS TOWARD WRN LAKE ERIE             
LATE THIS MORNING. NRN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP              
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS REACH A LINE FROM APN TO GRAYLING TO            
CAD. LAKE ENHANCED SHRA CONTINUE TO STREAM ALONG THE LAKE MI                    
SHORELINE FROM EMPIRE TO MANISTEE. ANOTHER AREA OF LAKE ENHANCED                
SHRA LINED UP FROM ROGERS CITY TO ATLANTA ORIGINATING FROM LAKE HURON           
IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS IT ENCOUNTER                   
INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE VIA THE SRN LAKES SYSTEM.                     
POPS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON. NRN EXTENT OF PRECIP             
SHIELD IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE 90 PCT 1000-500 MB RH LINE AS SEEN            
ON THE LATEST RUC40. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS LINE SUGGESTS NRN EDGE OF            
THE PRECIP WILL ONLY MAKE A SLIGHT PUSH FARTHER TO THE N EARLY THIS             
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL ROTATE BACK TO THE            
E AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME             
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES BREAKOUTS TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER CHANCES             
OF PRECIP ALONG A LINE FROM GAYLORD TO GRAYLING AND KALKASKA TO LAKE            
CITY AND CAD THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE. CATEGORICAL            
POPS FOR PLACES S AND E OF THESE AREAS IS PANNING OUT WELL...SO ONLY            
MINOR WORDING CHANGES EXPECTED IN THESE ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO                 
MENTION SCT POPS FOR NRN AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...DRIVEN WEAK              
850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE              
ENHANCEMENT.                                                                    
850 MB THERMAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE            
SYSTEM TO THE S TEMPORARILY HOLDS LOW LEVEL CAA AT BAY. HOWEVER 850             
MB TEMPS...RANGING FROM -5 C IN ERN UPR MI TO -3 C IN FAR NRN LOWER             
MI...WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF SOME WET SNOW                 
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THESE NRN ZONES.               
WILL MENTION THIS MIX OF SNOW TOWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN CAA             
WILL BEGIN AGAIN AS THE SFC LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE.                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
830 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
UPDT TO PUSH BACK TIMING ON PCPN ARRIVAL ACRS NW DIST TDA TIL                   
AFTN. SFC LOW PRES ACRS WRN OH APCHG KAOH AT 12Z WHILE BEST PRES                
FALLS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED FM THAT LOW. INTRUSION OF PRES FALL AXIS              
CONTS E INTO PA TO WRN MA WHICH SEEMS IN LN WITH NEWD MOTION OF RUC.            
PCPN HAS ALREADY MOVD INTO WRN-N CNTRL LK ONTARIO PER KBUF RADAR.               
SMALL CHGS TO SCND THRU FOURTH PDS TOO.  MCKINLEY/KDL                           
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1019 AM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                     
LOWER TROP CONVERGENCE DRIFTING N IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS COAXING             
A COASTAL TROF TWD THE SERN ZONES. IR CLOUD TEMPS SUGGEST NOTABLE               
MSTR AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING FTR. INLAND                
PENETRATION OF MSTR AND OMEGA LIMITED BUT DO BRUSH ERN SECTIONS THIS            
AFTN BEFORE SW WINDS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORT SWEEPS THE ENCROACHING              
AIRMASS TO SEA. STILL THE RUC80 ADVECTS 70 PCNT MEAN RH UP TO 8KFT              
BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE SWIFT WINDS CRADLING A CHILLY POOL OF AIR WILL          
SWING ACRS THE NRN MHX ZONES AS A LAST BLAST HOPE FOR PCPN BEFORE               
COLD DRY REGIME OVERTAKES THE REGION. ALL SAID NO REASON TO CHANGE              
EXISTING ZFP ISOLD INLAND TO SCT COAST POPS IN PLACE. STABLE CLOUD              
DECK TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW INVERSION ACRS COASTAL PLAIN CURRENTLY             
IS BEING GUIDED NWD SO SUNNY GOING TO PCLDY FCST NOT IN JEOPARDY.               
CWF: CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH E-NE FLOW THIS MORNING EXPECTED            
TO BECOME SE-S THIS AFTN. LATEST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH                  
POST-FRONTAL SCA WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 06Z OR LATER. THIS IS STILL              
BEYOND 12 HRS...THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA ISSUANCE UNTIL AFTN FCST.             
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
COLBY/JBM                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                     
SHORT TERM...THE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS THAT SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN             
AND CENTRAL TX YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT APPEAR TO BE NOW              
CONCENTRATED MAINLY NEAR THE TX COASTLINE WHERE THE PGF IS                      
TIGHENING.  CURRENT OBSERVED WINDS AROUND THE CWA RANGE FROM 15 TO              
25 MPH AND THESE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY AS AFTERNOON            
HEATING ALLOWS 30 KTS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE                   
SURFACE.  HOWEVER...WIND STRENGTHS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO                 
WARRENT A WIND ADVISORY ATTM.                                                   
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT VSBL SATL              
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCT SC CLD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN               
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MOVING SOUTH.  RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOWS THAT               
THESE CLDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER RH CENTERED OVER              
NORTH EAST MEXICO.  THE DRY ARI ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH              
STEADILY EATS AWAY AS THIS MOISTURE AND DISSIPATES THE MOISTURE                 
POCKET BY 18Z.  SO AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE CLD COVER            
WILL EXPAND MUCH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.               
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HINGE ON WHICH FACTOR WILL PREVAIL...THE              
COOLING STRONG CAA COMING IN FROM THE NORTH OR THE HEATING EFFECT OF            
THE AFTERNOON DIURNAL EFFECTS.  BELIEVE THAT THESE SHOULD BALANCE               
MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NEAR STEADY                     
TEMPS.                                                                          
SO WILL AMEND THE CURRENT ZFP TO ADJUST THE CLD COVER WORDING A                 
BIT...BUT OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ZFP AS IS.                           
MARINE...A TIGHTER SURFACE PGF DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS A               
RESULT OF THE SURFACE TROFFING PERSISTING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX.              
THIS IS GENERATING GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AT BUOY020 (27G35KTS                
WITH SWELLS AT 10 FEET.  THIS SURFACE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SLAKEN LATER THIS                  
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WEAKENS.             
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 1ST PD OF THE CURRENT                   
CWF...BUT OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST AS                   
IS.                                                                             
SYNOPTIC-MARINE-AVIATION...60/MESO...VEGA/WATKINS                               
.BRO...SCA TODAY GMZ130-150-155-170-175.                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
923 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                      
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.  COLD FRONT           
OFFSHORE AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS AFFECTING THE AREA IN ITS             
WAKE.  THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALONG THE COAST.                           
WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS            
TO 30 TO 40...ONE REPORT FROM THE COAST GUARD AT 9 AM GAVE GUSTS TO 45          
KNOTS.  WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL          
COUNTIES...MAINLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING THE BAYS.           
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON FEEL THE WINDS WILL RELAX...THE RUC AND               
MESO-ETA BOTH SUGGEST THIS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING OFFSHORE AND          
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT FOLLOWS SUIT.  THERE MAY BE SOME LAG IN              
THE DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE            
COLDER AIRMASS AND THE WARMER WATER...BUT STILL FEEL THAT TOWARD MID            
AFTERNOON THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL RELAX.                              
FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MAV CONTINUES TO REFLECT REALITY A LOT BETTER            
THAN THE FWC.  THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT                  
FORECAST.                                                                       
CHANGES WILL THEN BE TO UP WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                   
MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS TODAY.              
.HGX...SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.                                        
       SCA HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 0-60NM.                
PL-40                                                                           
41                                                                              
PREV PRELIMS...                                                                 
CLL UU 068/042 073/046 079 000                                                  
IAH UU 069/041 072/046 077 000                                                  
GLS UU 069/056 070/058 074 000                                                  
RECORD LOWS...                                                                  
STN     10/16     10/17                                                         
---     -------   -------                                                       
CLL     42 1943   42 1954                                                       
IAH     42 1974   40 1977                                                       
GLS     51 1876   53 1970                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1021 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2001                                                     
SECOND VORT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE IN THE APCHG UPR TROF HAS                 
SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE BAROCLININC RAINFALL BAND.  RAINFALL            
IS NOW ENTIRELY BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...INDICATIVE OF A MID                      
LVL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN JUST NORTH OF A DVLPG SFC WV.  THIS WAVE             
IS NICELY FORECAST BY THE 00Z RUC TO MOVE DUE NWRD THRU NERN NY                 
AND TO VICINITY OF OTTAWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                 
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED THIS EVENING TO DELAY RAINFALL AND INDICATE             
LOWER POPS IN ALL OF VERMONT...LKLY SCNTRL AND ONLY CHC IN THE                  
CHAMPALIN VLY AND NCTRL/NERN VT.  DWPTS ARE INITIALLY LOW...DOWNSLOPE           
INITIALLY OCCURRING WEST OF THE GREENS...AND OVRRNG AND H8 CNVGC IS             
LIFTING THRU EASTERN NY INTO CANADA TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.                    
BELL                                                                            
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1112 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001                                                     
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FCST THIS AM IS THE ENDING OF PCPN AND HI             
TEMPS TDA.                                                                      
WV IMAGERY/RUC SHOWING RDG OVR N CNTRL PLAINS...SEPARATING A CLOSED             
LOW OVR LK ONT AND A TROF OVR CAN RCKY. A CDFNT IS MOV THRU THE DKTS            
AND A SFC RDG IS OVR UPR GRTLKS ATTM. SCT MID LVL CLDS ASSOC WITH A             
WEAK SHRTWV...STRONG 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND 850-500MB Q-VEC                 
CNVRGNC AHD OF THE FNT ARE TRACKING THRU W ONT AND MN THIS AM.                  
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MSTR...AND THE MEAN SFC-500MB RH IS <50PCT. A            
NARROW LES BAND STRETCHES FM JUST E OF MQT TO THE STONINGTON                    
PENINSULA.                                                                      
AS PER RUC...MEAN 850MB TEMP OVR FCST AREA REMAINS ARND -7C...GIVING            
A LK SUPERIOR WATER DELTA-T OF 16C. THIS ALONG WITH THE NW FLOW CONT            
TO PROD A FEW LK BANDS OVR E U.P. MEAN SFC-850MB RH IS 80PCT THIS               
AM. RUC/MESO ETA SHOWING MEAN SFC-850 RH WILL REMAIN >70PCT OVR E               
UP. DELTA-T'S OVR THE E UP WILL REMAIN 14C THRU THE AFTN. WILL KEEP             
LK EFFECT RAINS GOING THRU REMAINDER OF THE AFTN FOR E CO. ELSEWHERE            
AS THE RDG OVR FCST AREA THIS AFTN WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. WITH            
XPC CLD CVR TEMPS WILL BE NR GUIDANCE IN THE E...AND WITH THE                   
SUNSHINE XPC TEMPS TO REACH GUIDANCE OR SLGTLY ABV IN THE W.                    
AS THE RDG MOV OVR FCST AREA TNGT...XPC WNDS TO FALL OFF AND BACK S             
THUS END ALL CHC OF LK ENDUCED PCPN. AS THE SHRTWV OVR MN MOV THRU              
FCST AREA TNGT...XPC AND INCR OF CLDS OVRNGT FM W TO E. WILL LEAVE              
TNGTS FCST ALONE ATTM.                                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1015 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2001                                                     
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS ON PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS AND                 
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.  PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS...A RESULT OF             
MID/UPR LVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEPICTED NICELY ON 12Z 305 THETA ETA             
SOLUTION...HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING SINCE EARLY MORNING...AND NOW                  
CONFINED MOSTLY TO EASTERN AREAS...ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC                 
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHER RH AT 5H.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DMSH 5H RH AS              
IT PUSHES SEWD INTO SRN WI...SO GOING FORECAST HAS THIS WELL                    
HANDLED.  5H UA ANALYSIS REVEALS HIGHER RH IN ERN AREAS WITH                    
INCREASED RIDGING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM.  OVER 100 METER HEIGHT FALLS            
AHEAD OF NEXT S/W TROUGH OVR WRN MT/ERN WA...HOWEVER EVEN MID/HIGH              
LEVEL RH PATCHY.                                                                
WIND PROFILER NET SHOWING 25 KTS AT LOWEST GATES OF WDL AND SANGSTER            
CHART HAS 30 TO 35 KTS IN ERN DAKOTAS.  BREEZY WORDING ALREADY IN               
ZONES BUT MAY UP RANGE SLIGHTLY.  TEMPS CLOSE TO 00Z FWC...AND                  
APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE.  ONLY MINOR TWEEKING NEEDED.                              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1025 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001                                                     
OCFNT AT 14Z ACRS SRN QUE-ME WITH SET OF SFC LOWS N OF CWMW AND CYQB.           
H8-H5 DIFF VOT ADVECTION COMING THRU IN WAVES...WITH ETA SHOWING                
ANOTHER LARGE LOBE DROPPING INTO SRN DIST LT THIS AFTN AND EVNG                 
WITH MORE COMPACT EDITION PUSHING ACRS NRN DIST DURG ERYR PTN OF                
AFTN. LATEST KENX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS SLGT BACKING IN LOWEST               
OF LYRS. KALY 12Z SOUNDING HAD 104 KT SSW JET AT H3. RUC SUGGESTS               
UPR DIV PLUME TRANSLATES INTO NEW ENG BY ERY THIS AFTN. KBUF 12Z                
SOUNDING WAS NR DRY ADIABATIC BLO H9 AND QUITE MOIST BTWN H9 AND                
SLGTLY ABV H7. MAY BE SOME SGFNT BRKS IN CLDS AFT MIDN...BUT TIL                
THEN THINK CLDS WL BE CSDRBL FOR THE MOST PART AND WITHOUT SOLAR                
ASSISTANCE IN CAA...SOME TEMP TRIMMING IN ORDER. ALSO...WITH PRES               
GRADS TIGHTENING UP INVOF LK ONTARIO AND LK ERIE...WL TWEAK WINDS               
UPWD THIS AFTN SPCLY NWRN SXNS.   MCKINLEY/KDL                                  
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1050 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2001                                                     
...TWEAKING WORDING THIS MORNING...                                             
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WIND SHIFT LINE HAS PASSED TO OUR              
EAST BRINGING A MORE WESTERLY WIND ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS            
STRONG WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LAST SYSTEM            
AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30-50 KT                   
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 3 TO 7 KFT LAYER.                                        
SATELLITE LOOP SHOW A NICE WAVE PATTERN TO THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL              
PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENTLY HAVE A LAKE EFFECT BAND OVER OUR NORTHWEST              
COUNTIES ON RADAR. MORNING SOUNDING FROM BUF SHOWS MOIST PROFILE                
WITH SOME CAPE AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS MAKING               
FOR AN IMPERFECT LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LOOKING AT THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE LOW LEVELS IN THE WEST              
REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST TODAY. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ADD A LITTLE                  
INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE VERY COLD.                                
GIVEN A SLIGHT FORECAST WIND SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IN               
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO ONLY REMAIN AN ISSUE             
IN THE VERY NORTHWEST COUNTIES. A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION                 
SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY FURTHER AWAY FROM              
LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE WILL             
ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. 900 MB               
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO               
MIX WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                                 
WORK ZONES OUT...REAL ZONES ON THE STREETS IN A FEW!                            
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/RXR                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   pa