This file describes the following data base:

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC), WORKING GROUP 1, 1994:
  MODELLING RESULTS RELATING FUTURE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATIONS TO
  INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS. CDIAC DB-1009 (1995)

CONTENTS

   I.   Introduction
   II.  Description of the data base
          A. Subdirectory "inputs"
          B. Subdirectory "results"
          C. Subdirectory "report"
   III. References

I. INTRODUCTION

     This data base contains the results of various projections of the relation
between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These
projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of
the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change"
(1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections,
calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified
emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates
that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via
specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for
determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of
global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100
or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (a) an assessment of the
uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget; (b) an
assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. In
order to separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to
explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was
used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.
The specifications for these calculations, the models that were used, and the
results that were obtained are discussed in the report, "Future Emissions and
Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: Key Ocean/Atmosphere/Land Analyses" (CSIRO
Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 31), which is included in
this data base.

II. DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA BASE

     The contents of this data base are found in three subdirectories:

        1. "inputs"

	      All input data are provided as annual time series. Atmospheric
	      CO2 concentration data are smoothed versions of data from ice
	      cores (Neftel et al., 1985; Friedli et al., 1986) and atmospheric
	      observations (Mauna Loa Observatory data from Keeling and Whorf,
	      1991). They begin in 1765, which is the required starting year
	      for all calculations. Industrial CO2 emissions are those given by
	      Keeling (1991) and Marland and Boden (1991), linearly
	      extrapolated back to zero in 1844 to avoid a step function start
	      at the beginning of the published record. The additional data for
	      1990 and revisions for 1985 to 1989 are from Marland (personal
	      communication). Data for CO2 emissions from land use changes are
	      from R.A. Houghton (1993, personal communication). Atmospheric
	      carbon-14 data were supplied by M. Heimann.

              The files in this subdirectory are as follows:

                 readme.inp:
		   Descriptive file explaining sources and formats (including
		   units) of input files.

                 co2spl.dat:
		   Atmospheric CO2 concentration record derived from a spline
		   fit to the Mauna Loa and ice core records.

		 co2-sens.dat: 
		   Atmospheric CO2 concentration record derived from three
		   different spline fits to the Mauna Loa and ice core records.
		   The first was for the standard case (same as given in the
		   file "co2spl.dat"), where the CO2 concentration growth rate
		   at the end of the record is 1.7 ppmv/yr. The other two
		   spline fits, used for sensitivity studies, give CO2
		   end-of-record growth rates of 1.6 ppmv/yr and 1.8 ppmv/yr.
		   Details of these spline fits are provided in Appendix B of
		   Enting et al. (1994), found in the subdirectory "report".

		 deforest.dat:  
                   Annual net CO2 emissions resulting from land-use changes.

                 deforest.all:
		   Annual net CO2 fluxes resulting from land-use changes,
		   1765-2100. Data are a combination of Houghton and the IPCC
		   scenario designated "IS92a", modified to go to zero in 2100
		   and linearly matched to Houghton over 1990 to 2000.

                 foss91.dat: 
                   Fossil CO2 emissions, 1765-1989.

                 fossil.dat:
		   Updated fossil CO2 emissions, 1765-1990. New values for
		   1985-1990 were from G. Marland.

                 stab.dat 
		   Prescribed CO2 concentrations for the stabilization
		   scenarios [described in subsection 2 ("results") below],
		   1990-2300.

                 c14sth.dat, c14equ.dat, c14nth.dat:
		   Atmospheric carbon-14 levels for the Southern Hemisphere
		   (extra-tropical), equatorial, and Northern Hemisphere
		   (extra-tropical) regions.

        2. "results"

	      The data contained in this subdirectory comprise model output
	      calculations submitted for the IPCC CO2 modelling study. Each
	      different model is identified by a capital letter in the
	      filename. The models are as follows [see also Enting et al. 
              (1994), which is available in the subdirectory "report"].

              Code   Authors                      Institution
               A     J.A. Taylor, J. Lloyd, and   Australian National University
                      G. Farquhar
               E     I.G. Enting and K.R. Lassey  Commonwealth Sci. and Indus.
                                                   Res. Organisation, Australia;
                                                   Nat. Inst. of Water and Atmos.
                                                   Research, New Zealand
               H     M. Heimann, J. Kaduk, K.     Max Planck Institute for
                      Kurz, and E. Maier-Reimer    Meteorology, Hamburg 
               J     F. Joos and U. Siegenthaler  University of Bern
               L     D. Wuebbles and A. Jain      Lawrence Livermore Natl. Lab.
               M     B. Moore and B.H. Braswell   University of New Hampshire
               Q     C. Le Quere, J.L.            Princeton University
                      Sarmiento, and S.W. Pacala
               R     J. Alcamo and M. Krol        RIVM (Natl. Inst. of Public
                                                   Health and Envir. Protect.),
                                                   Bilthoven, Netherlands
               T     L.D.D. Harvey                University of Toronto
               W     T.M.L. Wigley                University Corp. for Atmos. 
                                                   Res., Boulder, Colorado

	      The file categories in this subdirectory are as follows, where
              "X" is the author code defined above:

               readme.res:
		   Descriptive file that repeats the information presented
		   here, with additional information on formats of results
		   files.

               fossilX.dat: 
                   Fossil CO2 emissions data for the stabilization cases. 

               intfossilX.dat: 
                   Cumulative fossil CO2 emissions from 1990.

               co2isX.dat: 
                   CO2 concentration data for the IS92[a-f] scenarios. 

               co2decX.dat: 
                   CO2 concentration data for the dec[0-2] scenarios. 

               ocnX.dat: 
                   Ocean CO2 fluxes (i.e., net uptake by the oceans)
                   for the stabilization cases. 

               ocnisX.dat: 
                   Ocean CO2 fluxes (i.e., net uptake by the oceans)
                   for the IS92[a-f] scenarios. 

               ocndecX.dat: 
                   Ocean CO2 fluxes (i.e., net uptake by the oceans)
                   for the dec[0-2] scenarios.

	       ocnhistX.dat: 
		   Historical ocean CO2 fluxes (i.e., net uptake by the 
                   oceans) where these are not included in the other 
                   ocean flux files.

	      Summary of emissions scenarios used to direct modelling
	      exercises:

                Stabilization scenarios:

		  Case S350: stabilization of CO2 at 350 ppmv (concentration
		   history provided in the file "stab.dat", found in the
                   "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case S450: stabilization of CO2 at 450 ppmv (concentration 
                   history provided in the file "stab.dat", found in the
                   "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case S550: stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppmv (concentration 
                   history provided in the file "stab.dat", found in the
                   "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case S650: stabilization of CO2 at 650 ppmv (concentration 
                   history provided in the file "stab.dat", found in the
                   "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case S750: stabilization of CO2 at 750 ppmv (concentration 
                   history provided in the file "stab.dat", found in the
                   "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case DS450: stabilization of CO2 at 450 ppmv following an 
                   initial delay during which concentrations followed a 
                   higher pathway (concentration history provided in the file
                   "stab.dat", found in the "inputs" subdirectory). 

                  Case DS550: stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppmv following an 
                   initial delay during which concentrations followed a 
                   higher pathway (concentration history provided in the file
                   "stab.dat", found in the "inputs" subdirectory).

		  Case S450S1: same as case S450 (i.e., stabilization of CO2 at
		   450 ppmv), with deforestation scaled by 0.6/1.6 and growth
		   factors scaled.

		  Case S450S2: same as case S450 (i.e., stabilization of CO2 at
		   450 ppmv), with deforestation scaled by 2.6/1.6 and growth
		   factors scaled.

                IPCC 1992 scenarios [assumptions are detailed in IPCC (1992), 
                 Table 1]:

		  IS92a: "business-as-usual" scenario. Basic assumptions are:
		   (1) world population of 11.3 billion by 2100; (2) economic
		   growth at 2.9% for 1990-2025, 2.3% for 1990-2100; (3) energy
		   supplies of 12,000 EJ conventional oil, 13,000 EJ natural
		   gas, solar costs decreasing to $0.075/kWh, 191 EJ biofuels
		   available at $70/barrel; (4) internationally agreed controls
		   on SOx, NOx, and non-CH4 volatile organic compound
		   emissions; (5) partial compliance with Montreal Protocol,
		   with gradual phase out of CFCs in non-signatory countries by
		   2075.

                  IS92b-IS92f: alternative scenarios.

		  IS92a*: same as IS92a except that CO2 flux from land use goes
		   to zero in 2100 A.D.

		  IS92a*1: same as IS92a except that deforestation is scaled by
		   0.6/1.6 and growth factors are changed.

		  IS92a*2:  same as IS92a except that deforestation is scaled
		   by 2.6/1.6 and growth factors are changed.

                Scenarios with specified emissions reductions:

                  Case DEC0%: IS92a to 2000 A.D. then constant industrial 
                   emissions.

                  Case DEC1%: IS92a to 2000 A.D. then industrial emissions 
                   decrease at 1% per annum.

                  Case DEC2%: IS92a to 2000 A.D. then industrial emissions 
                   decrease at 2% per annum.

		  Case DEC0*: Same as DEC0%, except that both industrial and
		   land use emissions are constant after 2000 A.D., rather than
		   just the industrial emissions as for DEC0%.

		  Case DEC1*: Same as DEC1%, except that both industrial and
		   land use emissions decrease by 1% per annum after 2000 A.D.,
		   rather than just the industrial emissions as for DEC1%.

		  Case DEC2*: Same as DEC2%, except that both industrial and
		   land use emissions decrease by 2% per annum after 2000 A.D.,
		   rather than just the industrial emissions as for DEC2%.

        3. "report"

	      This subdirectory contains a set of PostScript files that
	      comprise the current version of CSIRO Division of Atmospheric
	      Research Technical Paper Number 31. Queries about publication
	      status should be addressed to Dr. Ian Enting via e-mail at
	      ige@dar.csiro.au.

              The files in this subdirectory are as follows:

                 readme.rep: Descriptive file that repeats the information
                   presented here.

                 Rstart.ps: Cover, indices, etc.

                 Rissue.ps: Report sections 1 to 6.

                 Rbody.ps: Report sections 7 onwards.

                 Rref.ps: References.  

                 RappAB.ps: Appendices A,B.

                 RappDE.ps: Appendices D,E.

                 RappFGH.ps: Appendices F,G,H.

	      Note: Appendix C, which contains descriptions of the models used
	      to generate the calculations contained in this archive, is not
	      available at this time.

III. REFERENCES

Enting, I.G., T.M.L. Wigley, and M. Heimann (eds.). 1994. Future Emissions and
Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: Key Ocean/Atmosphere/Land Analyses. CSIRO
Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 31. Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Australia.

Friedli, H., H. Lotscher, H. Oeschger, U. Siegenthaler, and B. Stauffer. 1986.
Ice core record of 13-C/12-C ratio of atmospheric CO2 in the past two
centuries. Nature 324: 237-238.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1990. Climate Change: The
IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums
(eds.).  Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1992. Climate Change 1992:
The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton,
B.A.  Callander, and S.K. Varney (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
U.K.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 1994. Radiative Forcing of
Climate Change: The 1994 Report of the Scientific Assessment Working Group of
the IPCC.  Meteorological Office Marketing Communications Graphics Studio,
Bracknell, U.K.

Keeling, C.D. 1991. CO2 Emissions -- Historical Record, Global. pp. 382-385. In
T.A.  Boden, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.), Trends '91: A Compendium of
Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-46. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.

Keeling, C.D., and T.P. Whorf. 1991. Atmospheric CO2 -- Modern Record, Mauna
Loa. pp. 12-15. In T.A. Boden, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.), Trends
'91: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-46. Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge,
Tennessee, U.S.A.

Marland, G., and T. Boden. 1991. CO2 Emissions -- Modern Record, Global. pp.
386-389. In T.A. Boden, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss (eds.), Trends '91: A
Compendium of Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-46. Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A.

Neftel, A., E. Moor, H. Oeschger, and B. Stauffer. 1985. Evidence from polar
ice cores for the increase in atmospheric CO2 in the past two centuries. Nature
315:45-47.