AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
945 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                       
CRNT SAT TRENDS SHOWING THN ST/SC CLRG OUT ACRS NRNR CWA. SHOULD                
CONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS AS HI 950-900MB MSTR MIXES...SPCLY WRN ZNS              
WHERE SAT SHWNG THNG ST. SERN ZNS HAVE THICKEST CLD LYR AND WL BE               
LAST TO MIX OUT. WL WORD MSNY OR BCMG MSNY...XCPT BCMG PSNY SERN                
ZNS. SOME INCRS IN LWLVL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTN FOR SOME                         
REDEVELOPMENT...ETA 12Z RUN AND LTST RUC CU RULES SUGGESTS SVLR                 
HOURS OF NOTHING MORE THAN SCT.                                                 
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
PBM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
1015 PM CST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER             
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ETA RUN...              
COMPARED WITH THE AVN WHICH WAS TOO FAR EAST. THIS HAS NECESSITATED             
A BOOST IN POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                 
WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT                
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN                 
CONTINUES TO BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH LESSER             
CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO                   
PRINCETON INDIANA...WHERE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS HAVING A                     
DIFFICULT TIME SATURATING. LATEST KPAH/KNQA 88D LOOPS INDICATE                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADING NORTH OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS                  
COMBINED WITH LATEST RUC/ETA SHOWALTER AND K INDICES MEANS THAT                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD OCCUR IN THE KENTUCKY COUNTIES BORDERING              
TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. HAVE MADE APPROPRIATE CHANGES TO 1ST AND 2ND               
PERIODS...OTHERWISE REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.                            
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
RJP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1058 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
KAPX 88D SHOWS WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND                 
SPREADING ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...WITH SOME EMBEDDED 28+          
DBZ RETURNS ACROSS THE STRAITS AREA.  ALREADY A COUPLE OF INCHES                
REPORTED AROUND ENGADINE SINCE 7 PM.  CLOUDS HAVE ALSO SPREAD INTO WEST         
CENTRAL LOWER COUNTIES...WITH FOG PUSHING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO         
THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS FROM AROUND NORTHPORT ON SOUTH...SKIES            
ARE STILL CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOWER.  01Z SURFACE           
ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONT WEAVING ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN MN/WI TO A WEAK         
WAVE NEAR GLR...THEN EAST ACROSS LAKE HURON.   SHORT WAVE EVIDENT IN WV         
IMAGERY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALREADY             
PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER...CORRESPONDS WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF               
PRECIPITATION NOW MOVING OUT INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. 00Z APX SOUNDING HAD A         
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER FROM 925-740MB...SHORT WAVE INTERACTING WITH                
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY RESULTING IN FLARE UP OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS            
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  MAIN PROBLEM              
TONIGHT CONCERNS SNOWFALL AND LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH MANY AREAS ACROSS         
NORTHERN LOWER AOB 30F.                                                         
EASTERN UPPER...GIVEN SLIGHTLY COLDER 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS UPPER           
MICHIGAN...SUSPECT THAT THE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST IN THIS AREA WITH           
RUC MODEL SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 700MB.  AFOREMENTIONED              
SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE EARLY PREDAWN                    
HOURS...THUS EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN         
05Z-07Z...FOLLOWED BY SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.  ADDED ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES          
OF ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF IT WILL BE EAST OF I-75.  LOW LEVEL         
NORTHEAST WIND OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS          
OUT OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES...AND PROGGED DRYING COMBINED WITH            
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT STILL SUPPORTS SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  IR          
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL WITH CLEARING NOW PUSHING TOWARD          
THE ST MARY'S RIVER.  SINGLE DIGIT LOWS STILL A POSSIBILITY HERE...SO           
NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                                             
NORTHERN LOWER...MORE COMPLICATED HERE AS DEPTH OF CONDITIONALLY                
UNSTABLE LAYER SHRINKS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  00Z GRB SOUNDING MUCH              
DRIER THAN APX...WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAYER ONLY UP TO 790MB.              
BELIEVE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT IDEA THAT WITH GREATEST                    
INSTABILITY LIKELY BEING NORTH OF M-72...BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS          
WILL EXIST THERE.  WENT WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS TIP OF THE MITT                  
COUNTIES...AND AROUND AN INCH ALONG M-32 CORRIDOR.  SIMILAR TO EASTERN          
UPPER...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORT             
WAVE PASSES BY...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.  FARTHER SOUTH...AS LOW LEVEL         
WINDS VEER NORTHWEST CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY            
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE/           
925MB TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL         
LOWER.  AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN             
WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT COLDER AIR WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INROADS            
INTO NORTHERN LOWER...BEST THREAT FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT APPEAR          
TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER...BUMPED MOST OTHER AREAS INTO THE 20S          
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX ALREADY ISSUED.                                               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH SNOW/TEMPERATURES ALONG APPROACHING FRONT.               
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW VORT MAX JUST REACHING NORTHERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR...ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. SURFACE                
ANALYSIS/METARS SHOW THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH THE LAKE                 
SUPERIOR C-MAN STATIONS AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND IS LOCATED             
BETWEEN KCMX AND KMQT. KMQT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW ALONG/BEHIND THE             
FRONT.                                                                          
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...              
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS MODEST ACROSS             
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...1000-500MB RH AROUND 70                   
PERCENT AND SOUNDINGS SOMEWHAT MOIST BELOW 700MB. THE SOUTHWEST IS              
DRIER AWAY FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND LAKE MODIFICATION. 850MB                 
TEMPS FALL TO -13C ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PER 12Z RUC/ETA BY 00Z THIS             
EVENING. COLD AIR MARGINAL FOR LAKE EFFECT BUT WITH ENHANCEMENT WILL            
CONTINUE CATEGORICAL WORDING FOR PRECIP. WITH LIMITED NATURE OF SNOW            
AND LACK OF STRONG MOISTURE WILL WORD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.                       
CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 28 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR TO 37 INLAND             
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND THE                        
FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH MORE SUN TO BEGIN WITH AND COLD ADVECTION                
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL                   
MENTION HIGH AND THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF               
THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT PER MODEL GUIDANCE/OBSERVED WINDS                
UPSTREAM AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF BRISK/BECOMING BRISK ALONG THE            
NORTHERN COUNTIES.                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
MQT AND APX 88DS WERE SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING            
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE STRAITS                  
REGION. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW               
CLOUDY SKIES OVER EAST UPPER AND EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...             
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTIONS THIS PACKAGE WERE FOCUSED ON                  
AFTERNOON SNOWFALL AND CLOUDS.                                                  
THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS SLIDING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR            
THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF 700/500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE            
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST UPPER AND THE STRAITS               
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE                  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL               
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN                    
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON... WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY            
INCREASING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.                           
DUE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND SUN SOUTH OF M-72... WILL BUMP UP               
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A TAD THERE. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST                
AREA... WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER            
AN INCH. WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER EAST UPPER AND         
AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30 OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER.                          
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1028 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE WEST.                 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND WENT WITH THE                  
HIGHER END WHERE A TWO CATEGORY RANGE WAS GIVEN. BAND OF LOW                    
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH IS BACKING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH AROUND             
10 KNOTS. LATEST RUC SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN            
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING                      
CLOUDINESS IN THIS AREA. DP/DT ON THE 12Z AVN FOR 48 HOURS SHOWS                
THAT THE H5 LOW IS BEING FORECAST FURTHER WEST. 72 HOURS AGO IT WAS             
PROGGED OVER SOUTHERN LHUR AND NOW AT 48 HOURS IT IS PROGGED OVER               
SOUTHERN LMIC. THIS MEANS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL PENETRATE FURTHER             
INTO THE CWA FOR A LONGER PERIOD.                                               
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1100 AM MST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
UPDATED AFTERNOON FORECASTS FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE                   
PRECIPITATION. LATEST TIME SECTIONS FROM RUC2 AND MESOETA RUNS SHOW             
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TILL AROUND SUNSET...             
WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ALREADY PRESENT IN NORTHWEST LINCOLN COUNTY.             
ALSO ADDED LAKE CAUTIONS TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. UPDATED             
FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY. 38                                                       
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
313 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                       
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT RIGHT ACROSS THE CAE CWA. IN THE MID 60S TO             
THE SOUTH AND MID 50S IN THE NORTH. LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING THAT                 
ACTIVITY DISSIPATES ONCE IT GETS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR MACON.               
WEST OF THERE IS WHERE H8 RUC HAS BEST WAA. RUC BRINGS H8 WINDS MORE            
SOUTHERLY BY 03Z AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT               
PERIOD. MESOETA HAS BEST OMEGA 00Z TO 06Z THEN MOVES TO NORTH                   
CAROLINA BY 09Z. SO WILL MENTION RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT. TO THE            
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT THERE COULD BE SOME FOG NORTH              
PORTION OF CAE CWA. ETA BUFKIT SHOWS DEEPEST MOISTURE OVERNIGHT.                
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIS -1 BUT K               
INDEX DROPS BELOW 20 BY 15Z. SO WILL MENTION SOME MORNING                       
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH A LIKELY CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BUT WITH DRIER              
AIR BY AFTERNOON WILL GO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE                
SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WINDS BECOME             
MORE DOWNSLOPE AND WILL DROP SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT. COLDER AIR ARRIVES            
FOR EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME MOISTURE PROBABLY MAKING IT ACROSS THE            
MOUNTAINS BUT LOW LAYERS SHOULD BE DRY WITH DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS. IN            
ADDITION INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ADDITIONALLY DRY LOW LAYERS. WILL              
BE GENERALLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES BUT WILL CUT HIGHS                  
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                            
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
CAE   62  73  43  49 / 100  60  30  10                                          
AGS   63  72  42  49 / 100  60  30  10                                          
SSC   62  72  43  48 / 100  60  30  10                                          
OGB   63  73  43  49 / 100  60  30  10                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1035 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
CURRENTLY...1002 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE LA COAST...W/               
INFRARED SATELLITE/LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING MOST ACTIVE WEATHER ALONG             
THE GULF COAST. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW...THROUGH CENTRAL               
MS...CENTRAL AL...AND INTO NORTHERN GA. LOCALLY... EARLIER SHOWERS              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU HAVE MOVED EAST...ALTHOUGH 16Z SURFACE                
PLOT SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AT HSV AND TUP. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID                 
STATE ARE MAINLY IN THE 40S.                                                    
12Z BNA SOUNDING DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN...W/            
PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 0.73 INCHES...BUT W/ PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER              
BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB. ALSO...STRONG SURFACE TO ~780 MB INVERSION              
WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME.                                                       
15Z RUC MODEL HOLDS DEEPEST MOISTURE SOUTH OF MIDDLE TN UNTIL                   
BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z...WHEN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW PUSHES THE              
MOISTURE OVER THE WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION                 
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MIDDLE TN.                         
WILL AMEND THE ZONES SHORTLY TO UPDATE WORDING...ALTHOUGH WILL LEAVE            
THE ACTUAL FORECAST AS IS.                                                      
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
08                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH AREAS                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1045 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001                                                      
OVERRUNNING ALREADY ON GOING ACRS THE SRN PART OF THE AREA THIS                 
MRNG. LOOKING AT RUC AND NEW MODELS THINK PRECIP WL CONTINUE ACRS NE            
NC THIS AFTN. RADARS TO THE SW STILL SHOW PLENTY OF LGT RN TO MOVE              
ACRS THE AREA. WL GO WITH CAT POPS NE NC AND THEN LKLY IN ADJACENT              
AREAS. HAVE DROPPED POS IN THE NRN AREA AS LOOKS LIKE NOT MUCH PUSH             
TO THE N SO SHD KEEP PRECIP TO THE S UNTIL TNGT.                                
WL LOWER SOME MAXES OVR SRN PART OF THE AREA WHERE PRECIP IS                    
OCCURRING.                                                                      
STORM DEVELOPING FOR SUN AND MON LOOKS INTERESTING WL HOLD COMMENTS             
TIL GET CHC TO STUDY NEW MODELS.                                                
FCSTID = 92                                                                     
SBY   54  40  43  32 /  10  80 100  80                                          
OXB   54  42  45  33 /  30  90 100  80                                          
ECG   58  43  49  34 /  50 100  80  70                                          
ORF   58  43  49  34 /  50 100  80  70                                          
PHF   58  43  49  34 /  50 100  80  70                                          
AKQ   58  43  44  33 /  40 100  80  70                                          
RIC   56  40  44  33 /  30 100  90  70                                          
FVX   58  43  44  33 /  40 100  80  70                                          
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING SUN NIGHT FOR ZONES MDZ024>025.              
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING SUN NIGHT FOR ZONE NCZ102.                   
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH BEGINNING SUN NIGHT FOR ZONES                          
VAZ077>078-VAZ084>086-VAZ091... VAZ094>095-VAZ098>100.                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
240 AM MST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER ARIZONA TODAY AND MONDAY AS A                  
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS                        
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM. BY TUESDAY                
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD...WITH THICKER CLOUDS AND             
A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF AT LEAST LIGHT RAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST                    
DESERTS. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD...A CLEARING TREND            
WILL TAKE OVER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPR RIDGE HAS PUMPED UP 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS SWRN U.S. WITH BEST                
WARMING ALOFT SEEN AT DESERT ROCK NV. HUGE BAROCLINIC BAND SEEN                 
DEVELOPING NEAR CA COAST LAST NIGHT WITH TROF AXIS TRYING TO TILT               
MORE N-S WITH TIME.  LOOKING AT 300MB WINDS...100-120KT WINDS ARE               
FEEDING THE WEST FLANK OF THE LOW WITH AVN PICKING UP ON THIS LTL               
BETER THAN OTHER MODELS. ETA HAS MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER AZ THAN                 
OTHERS...AND NOT SURE IF THE ETA IS CORRECT IN SHOWING MINOR S/WV               
APPROACHING THE BAJA WEST COAST AT 06Z. BY 12Z BOTH RUC AND ETA                 
INDICATE STRONG DIFFLUENCE IN UPPER WINDS...WITH ETA BRINGING A                 
SHORT WAVE INTO NW MEX AFT 18Z.                                                 
AS IN THE PAST THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE MAIN              
FORECAST CHALLENGES. THE ADJUSTMENTS MADE SO FAR HAVE BEEN IN THE               
RIGHT DIRECTION...I THINK...WITH A LITTLE LATER ONSET TIME OF PCPN              
IN PHX WHILE THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER SRN CA. STG FORCING             
COMBINED WITH HIGHER P/WTR VALUES CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON MODELS THIS             
MORNING. AVN SHOWS .6 TO .7 OVR PHX ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL PSBLY            
SEE DRY SLOT DEVELOP ALONG SOUTHWEST DESERTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS             
LOW REORGANIZES ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF LAX. THIS LEADS TO A STRONG             
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND SOME OROGRAPHICS THREAT FOR POINTS EAST AND              
NORTH OF GLOBE. I LIKE THE AVN/ETA BLEND WITH SYSTEM KICKING OUT AND            
WELL TO THE EAST OF US BY SATURDAY.  WITH SNOWMELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN            
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...STREAM FLOWS TO INCREASE EVEN MORE. AT THIS TIME             
WE DO NOT CALL FOR ANY HVY PRECIP ON WATERSHED.  SIPPLE                         
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
325 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                       
--CURRENTLY--                                                                   
AT 06Z SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NE MS WITH THE COLD FRONT            
EXTENDING S FROM THIS LOW. LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION AHEAD OF                
THIS FRONT EXTENDED SW OVER OUR CWFA FROM S-CENTRAL GA INTO THE                 
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A VORT MAX NOW               
OVER THE CAROLINAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AROUND                  
03-04Z. PRIMARY STRONG VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE OVER TOWARD WRN TN AT             
THIS TIME. RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH.                      
--FORECAST--                                                                    
FIRST ISSUE IS TIMING END OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE              
LARGELY DICTATED BY RADAR TRENDS AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. 06Z RUC                 
ADVERTISES PRECIP TO BE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY 18Z TODAY. NEXT ISSUE IS            
CLOUD COVER TODAY BEHIND FRONT. UPSTREAM METARS AND SATELLITE SHOW              
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BENEATH THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TN                
VORT MAX. BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY             
WRN ZONES...SO WILL GENERALLY USE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS THE              
BOARD.                                                                          
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE US TO BE COOL AND BREEZY IN WAKE OF STRONG NE            
USA STORM...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE ARE                
PLANNED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE             
THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES             
FOR SOME AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.                                    
MARINE - CURRENT BUOY DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CLEARLY INDICATE              
OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CONTINUED. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN            
ARE OUR COASTAL FLOODING PROSPECTS. LATEST MODELS STILL ADVERTISE               
STRONG WLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER OUR WATERS TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.               
THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG EARLY TONIGHT EVENING WHEN HIGH TIDE WILL              
OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL MENTION POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING FOR DIXIE AND               
TAYLOR COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT CAN DETERMINE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE                    
UPGRADED.                                                                       
FIRE WEATHER - NO CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MUCH                
LOWER RH VALUES AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS JUSTIFIES A WATCH.              
EXTENDED - MADE FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE.                                 
FEEDBACK ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                        
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH 072/045 061/028 3000                                                        
PFN 068/048 064/041 0000                                                        
DHN 065/041 056/032 -000                                                        
ABY 068/042 056/030 -000                                                        
VLD 077/045 060/033 4000                                                        
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...SCA GMZ750-755-770-775.                                                    
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTN ALL AREAS.                                  
FOR A LIST OF COMMONLY USED ACRONYMS AND CONTRACTIONS...SEE OUR WEB             
PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/TLH/CONTRACTIONS.HTML.                      
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
235 AM CST SUN MAR 04 2001                                                      
MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA TO CONSIDER IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST IS                  
TO MAINTAIN FOCUS ON LOCAL ISSUES...AND NOT BE DISTRACTED BY THE                
IMPRESSIVE E COAST STORM TO COME.  IN ACTUALITY...THIS STORM DOES               
DESERVE SOME ATTENTION AS IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MAJOR FLOW                 
REARRANGEMENT...AND AT LEAST WILL BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR              
EASTERLY WX TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ISSUES TODAY               
ARE TRULY ONE OF HOW MANY CLOUDS IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN ATTEMPTING            
TO DEAL WITH TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  ETA/AVN PAINT RELATIVELY SIMILAR                 
PICTURE.                                                                        
BACKDOOR CDFNT IS SLIDING THRU NERN CWA ATTM...MARKED BY A SUDDEN               
INCREASE IN NE WNDS TO A GUSTY 15 TO 25 KTS FOR A BRIEF TIME.  ATM              
IS REALLY DRY NR FNT...AS INDICATED IN THE MPX RAOB THIS PAST EVNG.             
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVR CWA IN REGION AHEAD OF CDFNT...WHICH WOULD             
LIKELY BE WORSE IF NOT FOR OUR GUARDIAN CIRRUS WHICH HAS DECIDED TO             
TAKE UP RESIDENCE IN THE UPR COL...PERIODICALLY ENHANCING AND                   
DISSIPATING. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY HAS INDICATED SOME PATCHES OF                
MORE SIG FOG BTWN JAMES AND MO RVRS.  WL KEEP MNTN OF SOME EARLY                
MORNING FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE.  LARGER MASS OF LO                    
CLDS/FOG OVR WRN DKTS MAY ONLY BRIEFLY BRUSH FAR WRN CWA ERLY                   
MORNING...BUT FCST RUC/ETA WINDS SHOULD HELP QUICKLY TRANSPORT THESE            
TO W.  OTHER ISSUE IS TO WHAT DEGREE THERE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF               
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND FRONT.  RUN TO RUN TREND IS FOR LESS AND LESS                 
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS...AND MORE IN NARROW BAND TRAILING FNT.  FOR             
THE CURRENT TIME...GRTLKS TRAJECTORY HAS RESULTED IN SOME LOW CLOUDS            
STREAMING INTO NRN WI AND MN...BUT NOT A GREAT DEAL.  OF MORE                   
CONCERN ARE CLOUDS MASSING IN SWRN ONTARIO...BUT THOSE WOULD NOT BE             
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY IMPULSE OF CAA               
INDICATED ARND 850HPA LVL.  LO LVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAXIMIZES LT TNGT              
AND EARLY MONDAY AS WELL...ESPLY THRU ERN CWA.  POOR PERFORMANCE IN             
ELY FLOW IS COMMON...ESPLY HANDLING WWRD SURGES OF RH BLO WELL                  
ESTABLISHED INVERSION.  WL PLAY FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SUNSHINE                
OVERALL W WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN RIDGE AXIS MAXIMIZED...AND HIT CLDS               
A BIT HARDER IN BETTER CYCLONIC FLOW AND LAKE TRAJECTORY E. OTHER               
POSSIBILITY WOULD BE SOME CONVERGENCE OF MSTR ALG FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS            
W.                                                                              
AGAIN...VRRIFICATION HAS TOLD THE TALE OF MY COLD BIAS...AND AS MUCH            
AS SEEMS...DO NOT WANT TO LET THE BIAS...BIAS ME.  IT IS A STRONGER             
SUN NOW AND SNOWCOVER IS NOT AS EFFECTIVE A RADIATOR AS BEFORE...               
HOWEVER...IN THE FACE OF SHALLOW COLD AIR AND EITHER E COMP OR LIGHT            
WINDS...AND SNOWCOVER...WL KEEP CRNT OR LOWER THAN GOING FCST.                  
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...ANY WARMING LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY                      
BRIEF...AND LIMITED TO WHAT OCCURS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS                
CLOUDS INCREASE...AHEAD OF NEXT NRN STREAM IMPULSE.  JET ENTRANCE               
REGION WILL STILL BE PLAGUING THE REGION EARLY INTO TUESDAY WITH SFC            
RIDGE AXIS TAKING UP RESIDENCE NR I29. THIS SUGGESTS A LOW LVL AGEO             
E COMPONENT...AND EVEN ANTICIPATING RELAXING THIS OR STARTING A                 
RETURN FLOW BY LATER IN DAY...LO LVLS WILL HAVE LIGHT TO ELY COMP               
WHICH IS DEATH TO A RAPID WARMUP.  CONSISTENT ALSO FOR NUMBER OF                
RUNS WITH SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT...WITH BEST QG LIFT AND                 
THERMAL RIBBON OVER NERN CWA. FOCUS WED SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR PV              
IMPULSE AND CYCLONIC FLOW TO INDUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN MAINLY ERN            
CWA.  THIS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD SHOT INTO REGION...WHICH SHUD               
LINGER INTO THU. AS WRMG ALFT BEGINS...AND SLOW RETREAT OF WK LO LVL            
FLOW IN SPRAWLING HIGH...KMML/K9V9 STAND HIER THREAT OF BEING                   
WARMEST ON THU...THEN NICE WARMUP FOR FRI. MAIN ADJUSTEMENTS WILL               
BE MADE THRU THU.                                                               
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
738 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                       
--UPDATED SECTION--                                                             
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE RAIN FROM SW GA AND MOST OF FL BIG BEND.                
--END UPDATED SECTION--                                                         
--CURRENTLY--                                                                   
AT 06Z SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER NE MS WITH THE COLD FRONT            
EXTENDING S FROM THIS LOW. LINE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION AHEAD OF                
THIS FRONT EXTENDED SW OVER OUR CWFA FROM S-CENTRAL GA INTO THE                 
GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A VORT MAX NOW               
OVER THE CAROLINAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AROUND                  
03-04Z. PRIMARY STRONG VORT MAX IS LIFTING NE OVER TOWARD WRN TN AT             
THIS TIME. RECENTLY UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH.                      
--FORECAST--                                                                    
FIRST ISSUE IS TIMING END OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE              
LARGELY DICTATED BY RADAR TRENDS AT ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. 06Z RUC                 
ADVERTISES PRECIP TO BE EAST OF OUR CWFA BY 18Z TODAY. NEXT ISSUE IS            
CLOUD COVER TODAY BEHIND FRONT. UPSTREAM METARS AND SATELLITE SHOW              
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BENEATH THE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TN                
VORT MAX. BELIEVE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY             
WRN ZONES...SO WILL GENERALLY USE MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS THE              
BOARD.                                                                          
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE US TO BE COOL AND BREEZY IN WAKE OF STRONG NE            
USA STORM...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE ARE                
PLANNED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE             
THAT WE MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TO CONSIDER ISSUING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES             
FOR SOME AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.                                    
MARINE - CURRENT BUOY DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CLEARLY INDICATE              
OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE CONTINUED. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN            
ARE OUR COASTAL FLOODING PROSPECTS. LATEST MODELS STILL ADVERTISE               
STRONG WLY GRADIENT FLOW OVER OUR WATERS TODAY BEHIND COLD FRONT.               
THIS FLOW WILL BE STRONG EARLY TONIGHT EVENING WHEN HIGH TIDE WILL              
OCCUR. FOR NOW WILL MENTION POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING FOR DIXIE AND               
TAYLOR COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT CAN DETERMINE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE                    
UPGRADED.                                                                       
FIRE WEATHER - NO CONCERNS TODAY...BUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON MUCH                
LOWER RH VALUES AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS JUSTIFIES A WATCH.              
EXTENDED - MADE FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE.                                 
FEEDBACK ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                        
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH 072/045 061/028 3000                                                        
PFN 068/048 064/041 0000                                                        
DHN 065/041 056/032 -000                                                        
ABY 068/042 056/030 -000                                                        
VLD 077/045 060/033 4000                                                        
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...SCA GMZ750-755-770-775.                                                    
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTN ALL AREAS.                                  
FOR A LIST OF COMMONLY USED ACRONYMS AND CONTRACTIONS...SEE OUR WEB             
PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/TLH/CONTRACTIONS.HTML.                      
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1110 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                      
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW INTENSE UPR LO MOVG WSW THRU                
SCNTRL ONTARIO UNDER BLOCKING UPR HI OVR NE CAN...WITH ELY 70+KT H3             
JET ON NRN FLANK OF UPR LO MOVG SYS WWD. AXIS OF ENHANCED CLD AHD OF            
THIS FEATURE MOVG THRU CNTRL LK SUP. SAT PIX SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR               
BEHIND THIS CLD BAND OVR FAR NRN LK SUP...BUT MORE ENHANCED CLD                 
NOTED MOVG SWWD ACRS SRN ONTARIO WITH STEADY -SN OBSVD AT CYGQ. CORE            
OF COLDEST AIR IN NE ONTARIO...WHERE H85 TEMP DOWN TO -20C AT CWZC.             
ENHANCED CLD LINES UP VERY WELL WITH LOWEST H85 TEMPS. ALTHOUGH H85             
TEMPS A MARGINAL -12 TO -15C (DELTA T UP TO 16C) OVR LK SUP...UVV               
ASSOCIATED WITH CLD BAND AND SFC CYC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME                  
ENHANCED SHSN ACTIVITY WITH VSBY AT CMX DROPPING AS LO AS 3/4SM ALG             
AXIS OF LLVL CNVGC... WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THEIR S. EARLIER 88D             
SHOWED LES BAND AND REFLECTIVITY UP TO 28 DBZ OVR ERN MQT COUNTY                
WITH FVRBL 340-360 FLOW UNDER INVRN HGT ARND 8K FT MSL PER VWP...BUT            
LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE COLLAPSE OF BAND AND MORE GENERAL SHSN AREA            
AS DRIER AIR FM THE N MAY BE HAVING AN IMPACT.                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN TDAY IS SHSN TREND AND GOING HEADLINES. 12Z ETA               
AND NGM SHOW UPR LO CONTG TO WSW TDAY WITH H5 VORT CENTER AND H85               
-20C COLD POCKET REACHING NR CYQT BY 00Z WITH STEADILY DCRSG H85                
TEMPS OVR THE LK THIS AFTN. AS ENHANCED UVV ASSOCIATED WITH UPR CLD             
BAND CONTS SWWD DURG DAY AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR NOW OVR NRN LK SUP              
MOVES IN BEHIND...XPCT A FEW HRS BRK IN THE SHSN THIS AFTN OVR THE W            
BEFORE INCRSG DESTABILIZATION STARTS UP MORE PURE LES AGAIN LATER.              
LESS OF A BRK ACRS THE E WHERE VIGOROUS H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 UVV              
PROGGED TO IMPACT THE ERN HALF OF LK ALL DAY ON CYC SIDE OF VORT                
TRACK AND MAINTAIN MORE LK ENHANCED ACTIVITY WHERE FETCH IS LONG                
ENUF TO ALLOW SGNFT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION. NEW ETA SHOWS                   
ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC INTO NCNTRL ZNS...WITH CENTER OVR WRN MQT COUNTY            
AND DCRSG VERTICAL SHEAR. BUT LACK OF FETCH INTO ERN ALGER/LUCE WITH            
NO LLVL CNVGC. LES CHART SUGS 1-3" ACCUM DURG AFTN FOR 6HR LK                   
ENHANCEMENT AND H85 DELTA-T UNDER 17C. ALTHOUGH DELTA-T WL INCRS OVR            
THIS THRESHOLD AFTER 21Z WITH ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR...NNELY LLVL                
FLOW NOT AS FVRBL THERE...SO NO EXTRA ACCUM FCST FOR THOSE ZNS.                 
ONLY MINOR CHGS TO FCST TEMPS.                                                  
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MONDAY MIZ005.           
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH MONDAY                  
        MIZ001>004-006.                                                         
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1100 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                      
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ALREADY                
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN... AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES                
CONTINUE TO DROP FROM -9C THIS MORNING TO -14C THIS AFTERNOON. THE              
LATEST RUC SHOWS 1000/850 MB MEAN WINDS REMAINING FROM THE                      
NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH 900/700 MB MOISTURE               
INCREASING OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO AROUND 80 PERCENT BY 18Z.             
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND TRAVERSE                
CITY AREA ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 3500 FEET TODAY...THEREFORE LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL BE             
LIMITED TO UNDER 2 INCHES.                                                      
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...850/500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL                  
AFFECT EAST UPPER AND THE STRAITS REGION INTO THIS EVENING... AS THE            
500 MB LOW DROPS INTO EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW              
GOOD MOISTURE EXTENDING UPPER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 650 MB...                
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EAST UPPER AND               
THE STRAITS REGION INTO THIS EVENING.                                           
FOR NORTHEAST LOWER...LAKE EFFECTS WILL BE LIMITED AS 850 MB                    
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN ON THE LAKE                    
MICHIGAN SIDE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL TO AROUND -10C                
THIS AFTERNOON. 1000/850 MEAN WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST SO WILL MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW FLURRIES THIS            
AFTERNOON. FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES AND SOUTH            
OF THE UPPER LOW... WILL GO WITH CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS OF            
PARTLY SUNNY...WHILE WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.                
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1149 AM EST SUN MAR 04 2001                                                     
NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THE AFTERNOON.  VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY             
COVER THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S.  NEUTRAL COLD AIR               
ADVECTION NOTED FROM THE RUC...WITH SOME SUN...VALUES SHOULD GO UP A            
COUPLE OF DEGREES...CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES.                                   
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA NE                                               
310 PM CST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                       
THE FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.               
CURRENTLY...AN ELONGATED BAND OF LOW SC LIES ON THE WEST EDGE OF A              
SFC HIGH...AND EXTENDS FROM S CENTRL KS AND ERN/CNTRL NEB NORTHWEST             
INTO EAST SASK.  IN OUR AREA THE EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS BEEN               
PUSHING SLOWLY E ON NW LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALSO DEVELOPING SOME                
BREAKS.  CLOUD MASS LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE SOLID IN DKTS.  ANOTHER                 
SOMEWHAT HIGHER BASED AREA OF SC IS IN PATCHES OVER NE MN AND NRN WI            
IN A MORE CYCLONIC FLOW AREA AROUND PLUNGING UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL.           
IN NEAR TERM...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STALL AND THEN BEGIN MOVING WEST            
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOMEWHAT INTO THE NORTH...A TREND             
SUPPORTED BY 18Z RUC AND ETA.  COLD ADVN HAS KEPT TEMPS FROM RISING             
VERY FAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEY SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY              
TONIGHT IN THE CLEAR AREA.  TEMPS MAY EVEN END UP A BIT COLDER THAN             
CURRENT FORECAST.                                                               
CLOUD COVER TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY WILL BE IMPORTANT TO TEMPS...BUT              
MODELS ARE NOT MUCH HELP WITH SHALLOW INVERSION OVER SNOW COVER.                
MESOETA DEVELOPS HIGH RH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BY MERGING THE                  
WESTERN SC AREA WITH THE OTHER AS IT BACKDOORS FROM THE NORTHEAST.              
I HAVE SOME TROUBLE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION AS CYC FLOW WILL NOT BE             
STRONG OVER OUR AREA.  LEAVING PC IN CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS                     
PRUDENT...WITH TEMPS A STEP DOWN FROM TODAY.  THERE IS DECENT                   
AGREEMENT ON LOW LEVEL DRYING MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS AGAIN A BIT              
COLDER THAN TONIGHT.                                                            
SFC HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN            
BRINGING CLOUDS IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPS WARM ALOFT...BUT MAY END UP            
SIMILAR TO MONDAY NEAR SFC WITH LIGHT WIND.  AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND              
MINOR LIFT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD DEVELOP               
ALONG WITH LESS COLD TEMPS.                                                     
ETA IS SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH BY LATE             
TUESDAY...AND IS MORE EXTREME THAN MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS.  WILL LEAN             
TOWARD SOMEWHAT FASTER AND WEAKER AVN FOR NOW...BUT ACCEPT OVERALL              
MODEL TENDENCY TOWARD INCREASED UPPER TROUGHING.  THIS WOULD NOT                
CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD AFFECT THE               
EXTENDED.                                                                       
OVERALL WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVN MOS...WHICH RESEMBLES                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR SNOW COVER CURRENTLY              
THINNING AROUND LNK AND OMA...AND OF COURSE CLOUDS.                             
IN THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD GREATER COLD AIR PENETRATION            
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN                
BRANCH IS MORE PREDOMINANT THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  WILL LOWER                
GUIDANCE TEMPS BUT KEEP AREA MAINLY DRY AS SOUTHERN BRANCH IS                   
SUPPRESSED FARTHER SOUTH.  SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE A DAY OF                   
RECOVERING TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING INLAND FROM THE            
WEST COAST.  THIS COULD PRODUCE LIGHT WARM ADVN PRECIP AS EARLY AS              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
POLLACK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
210 PM MST SUN MAR 4 2001                                                       
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN                    
DAKOTAS...WITH LEE TROF DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL MONTANA/WYOMING.                  
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER FAR EASTERN PART OF CWA...WITH               
EROSION ON THE WESTERN FLANK. PROBLEM TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR LOW               
CLOUDS MARCH BACK TO THE WEST. 12Z/18Z ETA AND 18Z RUC HAVE A GOOD              
HANDLE ON LOCATION OF LOW CLOUDS...AND WILL FOLLOW THE ETA/RUC FOR              
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS                   
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST. 12Z KBIS SOUNDING                  
INDICATES THAT THE COLD/MOIST AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH UP AGAINST             
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT                   
SHALLOW LAYER OF CLOUDS/FOG INTO THE RAPID CITY AREA...AND MUCH                 
DEEPER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH                   
CLOUDS/FOG SPREADING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT FAR SOUTHWEST...BLACK              
HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. WILL WORD NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AS CLEAR              
AROUND SPEARFISH...WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG INTO STURGIS. WITH THE WEAK              
UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WEAK SHEAR LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE...I              
DO NOT EXPECT A PROBLEM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                  
FOR MONDAY...QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL             
CLEAR OUT OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE              
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS IN THE LOW                   
CLOUDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE WESTERN FRINGE WHERE MIXING WILL ERODE                
SOME OF THE CLOUDS. ALSO...DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE EAST MAY               
CLEAR OUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES LATER IN THE DAY. BIG RANGE IN             
TEMPERATURES OVER A SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO THE                  
PLAINS.                                                                         
CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER AS SURFACE TROF               
MOVES WEST TO EAST...MIXING AND DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO ERODE LOW                
CLOUDS. MIXING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER               
TEMPERATURES TO THE PLAINS. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN         
THE DAY.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...THERMAL TROF OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. COULD              
BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE                   
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR SNOW             
AS IT IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE.                                                  
DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. STILL A CHANCE            
OF SNOW SATURDAY...AND DRY AND COLD SUNDAY.                                     
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd