AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1200 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
ZONES..WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY AMDS. THE TEMPS OVER N FLA SEEM TO HAVE             
RESPONDED WELL TO THE EARLIER THINNING OF THE CI/CS CANOPY AND ARE              
NOW CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE. ALSO BASED ON SAT IMAGERY...THE CI/CS OVER           
GA LOOKS TO BE THIN ENOUGH THAT CURRENT WORDING IS ACCEPTABLE.                  
THEREFORE WILL NOT AMD THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE.                                
MARINE...WINDS AT ST. AUGUSTINE PIER HAVE BEEN STEADY AT 20 KNOTS               
PAST TWO HOURS AND WE HAVE A MARINE REPORT...FROM SEA LOVERS MARINA             
IN ST. AUGUSTINE...THAT INDICATES THAT THE WINDS 16 NM OFFSHORE ARE             
E TO NE AT 17 KNOTS...SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED              
THE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE FLORIDA WATERS AND SINCE THIS               
MEETS SCEC CRITERIA AN SCEC HAS BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE              
REGION IS AT THE END OF THE FETCH AREA AND RUC INDICATES THE WINDS              
WILL STAY UP INTO THE EVENING HOURS HAVE INCREASED SEAS BUILDING TO 4           
TO 6 FEET.                                                                      
.JAX...                                                                         
GA...FIRE WX WATCH GAZ150-164 THRU SS.                                          
FL...FIRE WX WATCH FLZ020>023-030-035 THRU SS.                                  
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
950 AM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
ZONES..CI/CS CANOPY HANGING IN THERE...INCLUDING SERN GA. WE'VE GOT             
A LITTLE SUCKER HOLE OVER JACKSONVILLE RIGHT NOW...BUT LOOKING AT THE           
VSBL IMAGERY THE CLOUDINESS IS SOLID ALL THE WAY INTO GULF. THINK I             
WILL AMD THE ZONES AND GO "OVERCAST" FOR ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.              
ALSO THINKING ABOUT LOWERING THE TEMPS A CAT FOR ALL ZONES AS WE'RE             
RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. WILL TAKE OUT            
THE MENTION OF A "COASTAL SHOWER" AS THEY ARE NOT FORMING OVER THE              
COASTAL WATERS ATTM AND DON'T REALLY EXPECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER             
THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF DEVELOPMENT DID OCCUR THE            
LLVL AMS IS SO DRY I DOUBT THEY COULD GET TOO FAR INLAND ANYWAY. WILL           
NOT AMD ZONES UNTIL ABOUT 11 AM AND WILL WATCH TEMPERATURE TRENDS               
CLOSELY BEFORE PULLING THE TRIGGER.                                             
MARINE...WINDS AT ST. AUGUSTINE PIER HAVE BEEN AOA 15 KNOTS SINCE               
6 AM...AND GRAYS REEF DONE LIKEWISE SINCE 7 AM. NGM SEEMS TO BE                 
DOING THE BEST JOB WRT MARINE WINDS THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE RUC            
WINDS SHOULD STAY AOA 15 KNOTS ALL DAY. DON'T WANT TO RECOMBINE                 
THE MARINE ZONES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PORTIONS BUT GO                
WITH N-NE WINDS AT 15 KNOTS...SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET IN ALL AREAS FOR                 
THIS AFTERNOON. I DON'T WANT TO YO-YO THE NE FLA WATERS FORECAST AND            
WILL LEAVE AT 15 KNOTS FOR NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE IF TRENDS INDICATE A           
CONTINUED 15 TO 20 KNOT ERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.                               
THANKS FOR THE COORD KCHS.                                                      
.JAX...                                                                         
GA...FIRE WX WATCH GAZ150-164 THRU SS.                                          
FL...FIRE WX WATCH FLZ020>023-030-035 THRU SS.                                  
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
900 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.           
THEN LOOK FOR AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE               
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE DURING SATURDAY AND BECOME CENTERED OVER                
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN             
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO COVER THE REGION SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:                                                           
IR/WV IMAGERY LOOP INDICATING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH               
SOUTHERN QUEBEC PROV TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE OVERNIGHT MUCH IN           
LINE WITH LATEST RUC AND 12Z MODEL FORECAST. BEST ENHANCEMENT MOVING            
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY CLIP EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS                  
OTHERWISE PATCHES OF CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS REGION POSSIBLY PRODUCING            
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH.                                                 
TEMPS DROPPING SLOWLY AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND WIND. PREVIOUS             
PACKAGE IN GREAT SHAPE SO ANY CHANGES WILL BE MINOR.                            
COASTAL WATERS:                                                                 
WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING TO ENHANCE MIXING IT APPEARS SCA'S                
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                           
CAR BU 012/020 005/023 010 06110 222/221/00/N                                   
BGR UU 018/028 012/030 020 06100 222/221/00/N                                   
.CAR...SCA.                                                                     
FITZSIMMONS                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
928 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
DISC:  WATCHING A LARGE PATCH OF AC MARCHING ACROSS PA AND INTO                 
HUDSON VALLEY/NJ IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLOW MOVING TROF AND BROAD/WEAK            
SFC LOW. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN PRVS MODEL RUNS           
INDICATED...BUT EVEN NEW RUC MODEL SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE HAVING               
DIFFICULTY REMAINING ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MASS TURNPIKE AS IT             
SLIDES EAST.  XPCT THAT THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NE EDGE OF           
CLOUDS AS THEY HEAD EAST.  NONETHELESS...CT/RI/S COASTAL MA ARE THE             
MOST VULNERABLE TO THE CLOUDINESS LATER OVERNIGHT AND WILL GO WITH GO           
WITH A BCMG MOCLOUDY FCST SOUTH AND PCLDY NORTH.  ALTITTLE BIT OF               
SNOW OCCURRING IN OHIO/PA...BUT WITH CONSIDERABLY DRY AIR IN PLACE...           
DON/T EXPECT ANY PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND.  WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY               
BECOME MORE NW OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD AIR SINKS DOWN INTO THE CWA.               
MINOR ADJ NECESSARY TO TEMPS AND WINDS.                                         
MARINE:  MODERATE TO STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS PERSIST.  THESE WINDS             
SHOULD BE AT THEIR PEAK BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN TAIL OFF SOMEWHAT. SCA           
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS.                                      
.BOX...SCA ALL MARINE WATERS.                                                   
DCY                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
935 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
THE LATEST APX 88D WIND DATA SHOWS WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING FROM THE            
NORTHWEST (330)... NOW MORE TOWARD THE NORTH (360)...AS A LARGE AREA OF         
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. APX 88D SHOWING THE           
ONCE TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW BANDS NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTH AND              
AFFECT LOCATIONS AROUND TRAVERSE CITY...CADILLAC AND MANISTEE INSTEAD OF        
MANCELONA...GAYLORD AND KALKASKA. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR NORTHWEST             
LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY AROUND MBL AND TVC...SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS TO          
5000 FEET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION         
TO 80 PERCENT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND -12C           
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO REMAIN OVER                
EXTREME NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS... BEFORE         
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN AND LOWERS THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND                 
DIMINISHES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW FOR TVC...MBL AND CAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT.                                  
FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN... WILL MENTION          
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE            
DIGITS. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF             
NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND           
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
12Z ROABS/WV LOOP SHOW RELATIVELY LO AMPLITUDE TROF IN E WITH RDG               
OUT W. A NUMBER OF SHRTWV TROFS/RDGS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT MAY             
PLAY A ROLE IN THE WEATHER OVR UPR MI: SHRTWV RDG OVR WRN ONTARIO...            
A SHRTWV TROF OVR NCNTRL SASKATCHEWAN...AND A POTENT LOOKING SHRTWV             
NOW APRCHG THE PAC NW CST. AT THE SFC...LATEST MSLP PLOT SHOWS A LK             
INDUCED TROF LINGERING ACRS SRN LK SUP. COMBINATION OF ASSOCIATED               
LLVL CNVGC...H85 -18C THERMAL TROF OVR ECNTRL LK SUP AT 12Z...AND               
INVRN HGT NR 5-6K FT PER 12Z APX SDNG RESULTING IN MULTIPLE LES                 
BANDS OVR MAINLY THE ERN LK PER 88D LOOP/SAT PIX. GREATEST INTENSITY            
OF SN E OF MQT WHERE LO LVL CNVGC A BIT TIGHTER...DOWNWIND OF H85               
THERMAL TROF...AND GREATER FETCH LENGTH. SPOTTER RPRT FM PINE STUMP             
JCT IN LUCE COUNTY INDICATED 3" SN IN 11/2 HR PD ARND 13Z IN                    
DOMINANT BAND IN CNVGC BTWN WNWLY LAND BREEZE S OF SFC TROF AND MORE            
NLY FLOW TO N OF TROF. BUT REFLECTIVITY TRENDS/LO LVL CNVGC STARTING            
TO DIMINISH (AS FCST BY EARLIER RUC MODELS AND EVIDENCED BY LESS                
CONFLUENT SFC WNDS) AS H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE AND RISING HGTS            
AHD OF ONTARIO SHRTWV RDG STARTING TO LWR INVRN HGT/RAISE H85 TEMPS             
AND WEAKEN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR SFC CNVGC. JUST FLURRIES NOW OVR WRN            
ZNS WITH BANDS THERE GREATLY DIMINISHED. BAND OF HI CLD CROSSING CWA            
WITH BACK EDGE OVR WRN LK SUP. SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HI PRES PRESENT             
TO N OF LK SUP WITH 12Z YPL SDNG SHOWING NR SFC BASED INVRN. A BAND             
OF LGT SN NOTED IN WAD PATTERN ON BACK SIDE OF THIS SFC HI AHD OF               
SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV... BUT PCPN INTENSITY LIMITED BY DRY ATMOSPHERE             
WITH NWLY FLOW ALF COMPLETELY CUTTING OFF MSTR INFLOW.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR TNGT PD ARE LES/CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. GIVEN              
RADAR TRENDS...RECENT DIMINISHING TREND OF BANDS NR CAN SHORE AND               
CONTD NEGATIVE UPR DYNAMICS DIMINISHING LO LVL CNVGC...WL LET LES               
ADVY FOR ERN ZNS EXPIRE. SINCE ETA/RUC SHOW LGT NLY FLOW PERSISTING             
INTO EVNG AND DELTA-TS REMAINING IN 17-20C RANGE...WL CONTINUE AT               
LEAST SCT -SHSN NR LKSHORE E OF MQT THIS EVNG. BUT LO INVRN HGT WL              
LIMIT ANY ACCUM TO 1 INCH OR LESS EVEN IN FVRD AREAS OF WRN ALGER               
COUNTY. WITH CLRG TREND OVRNGT AS FLOW BCMS MORE ACYC...XPCT MIN                
TEMPS IN BEST RADIATION SPOTS TO DROP BLO MOS FCST. LK MODERATION/              
CLRG WL BE GREATEST/SLOWEST OVR ERN ZNS...SO TEMPS AOA MOS THERE.               
MODELS SHOW SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV TRACKING E WELL TO OUR N TMRW. SINCE            
AIRMASS QUITE DRY AND BEST H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC FCST TO REMAIN WELL              
TO N...WL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PCPN AND HIT CLDS HARDEST OVR NRN                
TIER. INCRSG SWLY FLOW AS SFC HI SHIFTS TO E MAY RESULT IN SOME SCT             
-SHSN OVR SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY...WITH H85-LK DELTA-T PROGGED NR 15C               
AND INVRN HGT 3K FEET. XPCT HI TEMPS CLOSER TO LWR FAN NUMBERS PER              
UPSTREAM TEMPS TDAY.                                                            
MODELS REDVLP LO PRES IN NRN PLAINS ON SUN AHD OF SHRTW NOW ARPCHG              
PAC NW. SHORT TERM AND XTNDED MODELS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF            
THIS SYS AND INDICATE SFC LO PRES TO MOVE ENEWD INTO ONTARIO SUN-MON.           
FCST SFC-H85 RDG ACRS SCNTRL STATES WL CUTOFF SYS FM APPRECIABLE                
GLFMEX MSTR...SO LOOKS LIKE LTL IN THE WAY OF OVRRNG SN AHD OF SYS              
WITH FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO LIMITED. MODELS SHOW INCRSG SWLY                 
GRADIENT FLOW AHD OF THIS SYS WITH ETA/AVN INDICATING H85 SWLY WND              
TO 50/45 KTS BY F48 OVR WRN LK SUP. ETA OFTEN OVRFCSTS STRENGTH OF              
LLJ. BUT WL ADD BRISK TO FCST SAT NGT AND WINDY ON SUN AS SHARPEST              
PRES GRADIENT OVHD THEN. ALTHOUGH SKIES WL CLR BEHIND CAN SHRTWV SAT            
NGT (XCPT OVR SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY WITH SWLY FLOW OFF LK MI)...STEADY             
WND WL KEEP TEMPS FM PLUMMETING. WL GO WITH INCRSG CLD ON SUN...BUT             
UNDERCUT FWC POPS GIVEN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DRY MID LVLS.                  
ALTHOUGH XTNDED MODELS AGREE ON SPEED OF NXT SHRTWV...CONSIDERABLE              
DISAGREEMENT ON DEGREE OF SPLITTING OF SHRTWV AND RESULTANT STRENGTH            
OF LO PRES PASSING TO N. OPERATIONAL MRF OUTLIER IN DEPICTING MORE              
SPLITTING OF SHRTWV WITH STRGR SRN SYS AND GREATER FALL OF PRES TO S            
AT EXPENSE OF NRN LO PRES. MRF ACTUALLY DVLPS FAIRLY INTENSE LO TO S            
AND RIDES SYS N ON COLD FNT TRAILING S FM ONTARIO LO. OTHER MODELS              
GENERALLY SHOW DEEPER CANADIAN LO PRES WITH LTL IF ANY DVLPMNT TO S.            
MEAN MRF ENSEMBLE STRONGER THAN OPERATIONAL MRF ON STRENGTH OF LO               
PRES IN CAN AND WEAKER ON TROFFING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN BRANCH                   
SHRTWV. ENSEMBLE MEAN MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS AND WOULD BE A             
MORE RSNBL SOLN GIVEN EARLIER NCEP DISCUSSION (PMDHMD) SUGING 00Z               
MODELS UNDER ANLYZD STRG OF SYS MOVG INTO PAC NW (WHICH WOULD FAVOR             
ONE STRG LO). SINCE 12Z AVN HAS TRENDED AWAY FM 00Z MRF SOLN AS WELL            
(TOWARD A DEEPER CANADIAN LO WITH HIER PRES TO S) AND 12Z NCEP                  
DISCUSSION FAVORS STRGR NRN LO...WL DISCOUNT OPERATIONAL MRF SOLN AND           
GO WITH JUST MORE OF AN LES SCENARIO MON/TUE VS SYNOPTIC SN AS STRG             
NWLY FLOW ADVECTS COLD AIR OVR LK SUP. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT            
SHOWING A HI AMPLITUDE WRN RDG/ERN TROF DVLPG EARLY NXT WEEK. SUCH              
AN UPR FLOW WOULD SUG FAST MOVG CLIPPER TYPE SYS WITH BLO NORMAL                
TEMPS AND FREQUENT EPISODES OF LES.                                             
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1215 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
LIGHT SNOW HAS MADE ITS WAY AS FAR AS LENAWEE COUNTY BY LATE                    
MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOME SNOW TO MAKE IT INTO MONROE COUNTY...AND             
POSSIBLY WAYNE AND WASHTENAW COUNTIES. RUC SHOWS BEST MOISTURE                  
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 21Z WITH SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN               
CWA. SNOW HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING NORTH...WITH JXN...RMY...AND               
ARB YET TO SEE A FLAKE. WITH SURFACE OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE                     
SUGGESTING PUSH TO THE NORTH TO BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP             
60 PERCENT POPS FOR LENAWEE COUNTY...PUSH MONROE COUNTY BACK TO 50              
PERCENT...AND PUSH POPS BACK TO 30 PERCENT FOR WASHTENAW AND WAYNE              
COUNTIES.                                                                       
SKY COVER SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH...MID            
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH...AND THE OCCASIONAL LOW CLOUD ACROSS FAR SOUTH.            
WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY               
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
WILL TINKER SOME WITH WINDS...BUT SPEEDS SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT TO BE OF            
NO REAL CONSEQUENCE.                                                            
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
935 AM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
88D AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE FLURRIES HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE            
REGION. HENCE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM FNT/PTK ZONE.                
06Z RUN OF ETA SHOWS DEEPEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM            
RIGHT NOW...WITH MOISTURE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS CLIPPER                
SLIDES SOUTH OF CWA. RUC NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE IN DRYING SYSTEM               
OUT AS IT APPROACHES. LIGHT SNOW NOW AT DFI. RUC MOISTURE PROFILE               
SUGGESTS SNOW POSSIBLE INTO AT LEAST LENAWEE COUNTY BEFORE                      
NOON...AND POSSIBLY MONROE AS WELL. SO WILL UPDATE THOSE COUNTIES TO            
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY BY NOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AFTERNOON. QPFS              
ON ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRETHS...SO WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO EKE AN                 
INCH OUT OF THE SNOWFALL.                                                       
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PERSISTING OVER AREA. LATEST RUC MODEL SUPPORTS THIS       
MOISTURE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.  ZONES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS        
WITH MORE CLOUDINESS IN ERN AREAS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED          
SLIGHTLY IN SRN AREAS WITH HIGHER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES.                   
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1140 AM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ON NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH FAVORABLE                     
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE AND ASSOCIATED H3 DIVEREGENCE AS SEEN                     
ON THE RUC. NO SNOW REPORTED YET WITH MOST TEMPERATURES                         
LIKELY IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR STILL                      
SLIPPING INTO NORTHERN SIDE OF RAIN SHIELD WARRANTS AT LEAST                    
THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX AT TIMES. CORCORIA HAS SLIPPED TO                      
30 DEGREES THE PAST HOUR. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY                     
AFTER 3:00 PM.                                                                  
IN NEBRASKA...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN MOST                   
OF THE 24 COUNTIES DESPITE WARMER AIR IN THE KLNX/KGLD CWFAS.                   
NORTHEAST ZONES HAVE GONE NOWHERE AND SEE NO REASON FOR THEM                    
TO WITH CLOUDS...NORTHEAST WINDS AND CONTINUED PRESSURE                         
SURGE REINFORCING THE COLD AIR. UPPER 20S FORECASTED THERE                      
WITH JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES AREA. WE ARE                   
A STEADY 23 DEGREES HERE. FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES NEAR McCOOK                    
ARE PROBABLY THE ONLY AREAS TO REALLY HAVE DECENT CHANCE AT                     
STAYING THE 30S...BUT EVEN LXN AND HDE HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR                      
30 RECENTLY. A FEW FLURRIES UPSTREAM ON KLNX/KUNR RADARS                        
APPEAR HEADED OUR WAY TOO.                                                      
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
MORITZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
925 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
MID LYR OF FAIRLY LARGE GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT MOVG NE FM ABT KSYR-KMGJ            
AXIS WITH WRMFNT TAKING SHAPE INVOF MASON DIXON LN. RUC PLACES MSTR             
GRAD FM THIS NWD TO JUST SHY OF KALB BY ARND 03Z...WL INTRODUCE MORE            
CLDS INTO SRN ZONES AND BRK WRN ULSTER CO OUT FOR LOW GRADE CHC OF              
LGT SN AND WL BUMP TEMPS SLGTLY. SOME ADDITIONAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR              
KEEPING FLRYS FM DLVPG INTO ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE ACRS SRN                      
ADRNDCKS...WL ADD SOME DETAIL TO MAKE SRN PTNS OF ADRNDCK COS MORE              
CLD PRONE THAN NRN BDR SXNS.  MCKINLEY/MAC                                      
.ALB...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
815 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD STREAMING NORTH FROM THE              
GULF OF MEXICO. RUC-II PICKS UP THIS TREND RATHER WELL AND WILL WORD            
OVERNIGHT FCST AS CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE CLOUDS DO NOT               
SEEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON TEMPS SO FAR AS MHX ALREADY DOWN TO 39.             
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S...CURRENT FCST MINS ON THE                     
MAINLAND LOOK FINE...BUT WILL NEED TO LOWER OUTER BANKS AS HAT/MQI              
ALREADY BLO FCST VALUES.                                                        
COASTAL...WITH AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD...WINDS VERY LIGHT AND             
VARIABLE. ONLY MINOR WORDING CHANGES TO CWF.                                    
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
902 PM EST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT MID DECK TO            
MAKE ADDITIONAL PROGRESS NE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER...            
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT FCST                 
WITH A RANGE FROM NEAR 40 INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE COAST LOOKS            
REASONABLE. AS FAR AS PRECIP FOR COASTAL GA IS CONCERNED...THINK IT             
WILL BE A CLOSE CALL ON TIMING AND MAY TAKE UNTIL SAT FOR PRECIP TO             
BREAK OUT OVER THE CWA. CURRENT POPS ONLY CALL FOR 20 TO 30 SO WILL             
LEAVE THEM IN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. RUC TRIES TO SHARPEN UP THE                   
COASTAL TROF LATER TONIGHT FRTHR N WHICH COULD ACT TO INCREASE PRECIP           
CHANCES IN THIS AREA.                                                           
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS BETWEEN THE COAST             
AND THE TROUGH OFFSHORE HAVE RESULTED IN SOME STRONGER WINDS IN THIS            
AREA. LOOKS LIKE GRADIENT MAY TEMPORARILY RELAX FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT           
BEFORE TIGHTENING UP AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. WILL PROBABLY JUST GO WITH A            
MEAN WIND SPEED OF 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE FURTHER                
NORTH GRADIENT IS EXPECT TO REMAIN WEAKER RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS            
AND LOWER SEAS. MARINE FORECAST FOR THIS SECTION IS LOOKING OK.                 
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SLF/                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1015 AM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO EARLY AM ZONE PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE             
POKING INTO NE SD EXTENDS SW TOWARD PIR. MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN RUC               
T-SECTS AND ETA...ALONG WITH AREA OBS...SUPPORT KEEPING VAST                    
MAJORITY OF CWA CLOUDY WITH CHC OF A FEW FLURRIES...EVEN SOME FOG               
HANGING IN AROUND PIR AREA. WINDS CURRENTLY LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS OR             
LESS...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS DO NOT INCREASE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY               
TODAY...SO MAIN ADJUSTMENTS MADE THERE. DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE MOVING            
IN TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE ONLY OUR NW COUNTIES WILL SEE ANY                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
LORENS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
957 PM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
IR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE           
AREA AND HAS TAKEN THE COLDER/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT. HOWEVER...             
FOG PRODUCT DEPICTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS NEARLY ENCOMPASSED ALL             
OF CWA. ANY PCPN FALLING FROM STRATUS DECK WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND               
ISOLATED IN NATURE...I.E. DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES. WITH BL BECOMING                 
NEARLY SATURATED DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LITTLE IF ANY CAA               
TAKING PLACE...TEMPS MAY NOT DROP AS LOW AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...               
PARTICULARY IN THE SRN AND ERN ZONES.                                           
A QUICK LOOK AT 00Z ETA/NGM AND LATEST RUC SUGGEST THAT WINDS                   
SHOULD SLACK OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK BEFORE SWITCHING               
AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SAT. ALSO...DO NOT SEE ANY                     
SUBSTANTIAL LIFTING MECHANISM NOR LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO                     
CONTINUE WITH PCPN WORDING FOR TONIGHT/SAT.                                     
THEREFORE...WILL SHORTLY UPDATE ALL ZONES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.              
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
930 AM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
A MIX OF LOW...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SERN TX THIS MORNING.                 
KHGX/KCRP SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE GULF JUST            
OFF THE COASTAL BEND. THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE COASTAL POPS AND               
AREAWIDE TEMPS.                                                                 
THE 12Z CRP/LCH SOUNDINGS AND GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER SHOW                    
MOISTENING SINCE 12Z THU...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE 12/16             
12Z ETA. VIS IMAGERY CONFIRMS CUMULUS/WEAK CONVECTIVE NATURE OF                 
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. THE 12Z RUC HAS TOO HIGH OF POP/QPF OVER THE             
GULF...BUT SEEMS TO BE ACCURATELY VERIFYING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE            
PRECIP. THIS NORTHERN EDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH THROUGH THE            
DAY AND END UP NEAR GALVESTON BY 00Z. WILL BUMP UP BOTH COASTAL                 
WATER AND LAND ZONES TO LOWER SCT POPS.                                         
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...NO CHANGES.                                               
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 068/043 060/038 063 010                                                  
IAH BB 067/047 064/043 065 02-                                                  
GLS BB 063/054 061/047 062 021                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1110 AM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                     
LATEST RUC CONTINUES 500 MB CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO         
TONIGHT...WITH THE ETA 12Z RUN NOT BRINGING IN SOME RIDGING UNTIL AFTER         
12Z ON SATURDAY. THE RUC RH FIELDS KEEP THE AREA SATURATED IN THE MID           
TO HIGH LEVELS. THE SURFACE HIGH...CURRENTLY AROUND THE ARROW-HEAD OF           
MN...IS HELPING SCOUR THE LOW CLOUD COVER. BEST CLEARING CHANCES DON/T          
REALLY WORK INTO THE AREA UNTIL THAT RIDGE APPROACHES. THIS SHOWS UP            
WELL IN CURRENT SATELITE IMAGERY.                                               
WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN...EXCEPT TO THE FAR NORTH WHICH           
WILL HAVE SOME BITS OR SUN AND/OR FILTERED SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL          
BE HARD TO MOVE WITH THE CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW.                             
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
RIECK                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
328 AM EST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST PROBLEMS ARE TEMPS AND EXTENDED WITH FIRST SIG LES EVENT              
OF THE YEAR DY4. MODELS SIMILAR WITH STRNG ENERGY IN NWRN US. 150 KT            
JET DIGS THROUGH F48 WITH SIG FALLS ACRS CNTRL US INTO MEXICO AND               
RISES NR 135W. MODELS SIMILAR OVERALL BUT FEEL ETA UNDERPLAYS JET               
AND OLD MEX CYCLOGENSIS LT IN FCST PD AND TOO FAST WITH SFC FNT                 
WHILE AVN WK WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY SO WL TREND TO A MODIFIED NGM               
SOLN EVEN THOUGH DIFFERNCES SHOUL HAVE LTL SENSIBLE EFFECTS THROUGH             
F48.                                                                            
LARGE AREA OF DRYING ACRS SRN LWR MI. TEMPS PLUMMETING TO NR 10-12F             
IN CLR SKIES/LIGHT SNOW COVER AND WL TREND TEMPS PD1 LWR. SOME SC               
ACRS NRN/CNTL IL AHEAD OF WK S/WV AND LTST RUC PROGS KEEPING SFC-8H             
MSTR DEEP ACRS SRN TIER ZNS UNTIL 18Z WL INDICATE MIX CLDS/SUN S THIS           
AM AND MSNY N. LTST LAMP ALSO SUPPORTS THIS AND THE COOLER TEMPS.               
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS GENERALLY COLDER THAN NGM MOS THROUGHOUT. SOME               
LIGHT SNOW COVER/LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES SHOULD AGAIN RADIATE BLO MOS.            
QUESTION REMAINS WITH FROPA TIMING DY3/4. AVN/MRF MAY BE TOO SLOW.              
ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FASTER. FOR NOW WL CONT SUN NIGHT RA CHC E AND               
RA/SN CHC W. NONETHELESS AT LEAST BY DY4 MRF HAS LK-5H DELTA T IN MID           
30S LK-8H 23C. OZFFWA IN A FEW.                                                 
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
PBM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
840 PM CST FRI DEC 17 1999                                                      
...CLOUDS/TEMPS AND BR POTENTIAL CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS...                   
EVE 11U-3.9U SAT PIC SHOWS CWA ENDURING PATCH OF MOIST GENERALLY                
ARND 3KFT WITH CIGS LOWERING TWD IFR CONDITIONS AS EVE PROGRESSES.              
CLEARING EDGE HAS REACHED WRN CWA MAKING IT TO BTWEEN DVL AND GFK               
AND TO THE E OF JMS BUT PROGRESS APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED AS IT HITS             
RRV AND ITS S WIND BIAS SO XPCT ANY CLEARING TO BE                              
DELAYED/NON-EXISTANT HERE. HI CLOUD IN ADVANCE OF WKND STORM JUST               
ARRIVING IN NE MT. SFC ANLYSIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MSAS FIELDS                  
INDICATE WEAK CIRCULATION ON SASK/MB BORDER WITH WMFNT SLICING THRU             
CNTRL ND. NIGHTTIME DE-COUPLING MAKING IT HARD TO DETERMINE ACTUAL              
SFC WIND SHIFT LINE...BUT XPCT MOST OF WARMING TO GO ON ABOVE SFC               
WITH W WIND SHIFT NEVER MAKING IT TO VALLEY.                                    
TEMPS STILL IN 30S IN WRN ND ALTHO KBIS HAS APPARENTLY DE-COUPLED D             
AND BR HAS DVLPD. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY/INCHING UP ACRSS CWA THRU              
THE EVE AS CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED AND WAA STRENGTHENED. BAND OF                  
--SHSN SURVIVED MUCH OF EVE ON KMVX 88D ON LEADING EDGE OF STRONG               
H85-H7 WAA BUT NOW EASING EAST OF CWA SO WILL REMOVE FLURRY MENTION             
FOR REST OF NGT AS LIFTING MECHANISM IS GONE.                                   
RUC AND ETA BOTH PICKED UP WELL ON THE H85 TROF AXIS THAT SHUD BE               
LOCATED ACRSS CNTRL MN BY 06Z WITH MINI-RIDGE POKING UP OVER ND                 
BEFORE FLOW BUCKLES TO THE SW AGAIN AHEAD OF SAT SYSTEM. ASSOC                  
SUBSIDENCE IN THIS RIDGE SPOT HAS ALLOWED SKY TO CLEAR WRN-CNTRL ND             
TO DVL AND EVEN WITH SYNOPTIC GRAD INCRSNG...DECOUPLING ALONG WITH              
TEMPS RISING CLOSER TO TD/S CUD CAUSE SCT AREAS OF BR TO SPREAD E               
(ESP LOW LYING AREAS) WHERE SKY GOES CLEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO                
INDICATE LOWERING INVERSION WITH MOIST TRAPPED BLO AS IT WARMS                  
ALOFT...AS CURRENTLY ONGOING WITH THE CIGS.                                     
PLAN ON TWEAKING SUM SKY CONDITIONS...ESP W OF RRV TO MENTION                   
PARTIAL CLEARING AND AREAS OF BR. CLOUDS TO LINGER LONGEST IN RRV               
AND EAST SO MCLDY SHUD DO FINE. WILL GO WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RISING                
REST OF NIGHT...AS LOWS IN AFTN UPDATE ALRDY REACHED.                           
.FGF...WINTER STORM WATCH WRN 2/3RD OF CWFA FOR SUN.                            
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1119 AM EST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                     
LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF MY AREA LIFTING N STEADILY.  LATEST RUC            
SUGGEST MY NW COUNTIES MAY HANG ON TO SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE                   
AFTERNOON.  WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS FOR AREAS N AND W OF A MKG TO RQB              
LINE.  OTHERWISE WILL FORECAST MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  MOP AT 30              
RIGHT NOW...WILL RAISE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY.                                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
935 AM EST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                      
MAIN AREAS OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH SCT SHRA               
REACHING THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE AFTN. LATEST RUC MATCHES WELL              
WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND KEEPS PCPN FROM REACHING MOST INLAND AREAS.             
CLDS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT OVR INLAND AREAS AND WILL LOWER PCPN 10%             
AND MAY BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT TO ARND 60.                                         
CWF: WND DIR NOW COMING ARND TO NE AND WILL INIT AS SO...BUT                    
INCREASE SPDS AND SEAS S OF LITTLE RIVER INLET. WINDS TO SLACKEN                
SOMEWHAT AS THEY BECOME MORE E THIS AFTN. AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPING              
STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                                               
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
JFP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
957 AM EST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                      
DISC:  14Z SFC ANLYSIS SHOWS HI PRES OVR VA/NC. LOW PRES ARCS SRN               
LA/GULF CST.                                                                    
SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MSTLY MID AND HIGH CLDS ACRS THE ERN             
HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. SOME SUN ACRS THE NWRN PTN OF THE               
STATE...BUT CLDS ACRS NRN GA PUSHING NEWD TOWARD THE AREA. WL CONT              
WITH THE MSTLY CLDY SKIES THRU THE AFT. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS                   
MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACRS THE ERN PTN OF THE STATE...DOES NOT LOOK             
TO BE SHIFTING EWD BUT REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT. MORNING RUC                   
APPEARS TO BE A BIT STRONGER WITH S/W ALNG THE LWR MS VALLEY/GULF               
CST REGION THAN 00Z ETA/AVN RUNS. MAY STILL SEE SOME PCPN YET                   
OVERNIGHT. WITH CLDS CONT OVR THE AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPS NOT                 
RISING TO QUICKLY AND MAY BE SHORT OF AFT FCST. WL CONT TO MONITOR              
THRU ISSUANCE TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO NUDGE THEM DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY               
LIKE MID TO UPR 50S.                                                            
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LCV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
300 PM CST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATING LIGHT EAST WIND BECOMING MORE           
SOUTHEASTERLY ACRS CWA AS SFC RIDGE ACRS MI SHIFTS EAST. MSAS ALSO              
SHOWING PRESSURE FALL BULLEYES APLENTY ACRS UPPER MIDWEST IN                    
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ACRS PLAINS. CURRENT VIS LOOP                 
SHOWING STRATUS DECK ACRS SOUTH HALF OF CWA IN VARYING THICKNESSES              
BEING SLOWLY PUSHED NORTHWARD BY VEERING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW. VIS             
LOOP ALSO SHOWING MUCH LARGER DECK ACRS EAST PLAINS AND WEST                    
IA PUSHING EAST ALONG RUC H7-H3 MB THICKNESSES...HEADED TO ENGULF               
CWA TONIGHT. 12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS AT               
ALL LEVELS OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM S/W.                 
MAIN QUESTION THIS FCST PACKAGE CONTINUES WITH ONSET OF NEXT PRECIP             
EVENT.                                                                          
WATER VAPOR LOOP-W/V INDICATING AT 18Z THAT AVN BEST AT VORT CENTER             
PLACEMENT ACRS NORTHERN WY...ETA TOO FAR SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS              
DO DIVERGE IN HANDLING EVOLUTION OF THIS SHARPLY AMPLIFYING SYSTEM IN           
WAVE STRENGTH AND VORT PLACEMENT THROUGH 48 HRS. SYSTEM GENERALLY               
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON NOSE OF 130-140 KT H3 JET AND ACRS PLAINS BY             
12Z MON. NGM BECOMES DEEPER THAN EITHER ETA OR AVN...WHICH ARE MORE             
SIMILAR WITH HEIGHT FIELDS. PREFER SLOWER AVN HANDLING THAN ETA...              
THOUGH...WITH SUCH LARGE AND AMPLIFYING SYSTEM AND WILL FOLLOW ETA              
AND AVN BLEND...WITH EMPHASIS ON AVN WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES               
SUCH AS PVA AND FRONTAL TIMING. TIME SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING HIGHER RHS AND THUS SUBSEQUENTLY STRATUS               
MAINLY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL COLUMN DEEP MOISTURE                   
DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z MON. TIME SECTIONS AND FCST SOUNDINGS            
ALSO SHOW H9-H85 INVERSION SETTING UP TONIGHT...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE/STRATUS THROUGH SUNDAY.                                                
WITH HIGH AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...MODELS NOW SLOWER IN BRINGING PRECIP             
ACRS CWA SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT. INITIAL H85 LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHORT           
WAVE PROGGED TO SHIFT FAR SOUTHERN CANADA TO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BY 00Z           
MON. BRISK SOUTHERLY 30 KT H85 FLOW INDUCED AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD              
FRONT ACRS EAST IA ON SUNDAY REINFORCING H85 WARMING AND INVERSION...           
AND EVENTUALLY EVEN HIGHER RH/S. WITH SLOWER SOLUTION NOW PROGGED AS            
SYSTEM APPROACHES...SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIP WEST OF DVN             
CWA THROUGH 00Z MON...WITH BULK OF PRECIP STAYING WEST OF MS RVR                
THROUGH 06Z MON. BULK OF PRECIP NOW LOOKS TO SHIFT ACRS DVN CWA FROM            
06Z-18Z MON...WITH STRONGEST POSITIVE OMEGAS...LOW LEVEL                        
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE COINCIDING FROM 06Z-12Z               
MON. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...EVEN WITH WAA ACRS THE AREA AT VARIOUS                
LEVELS...BEST BET STILL LOOKS LIKE ALL SNOW. FCST SOUNDINGS...ETA               
DOES BRING POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WITH ONSET AROUND              
00Z...AND COOLS TO ALL SNOW BY 06Z. AVN LOOKS LIKE A SNOW-RAIN MIX AT           
00Z QUICKLY COOLING TO AN ALL SNOW SOUNDING BY 06Z AS WELL. AGREE               
WITH LOT THAT NGM APPEARS TOO WARM IN IT/S THICKNESS PATTERNS AND               
WOULD KEEP MAINLY RAIN THROUGH 06Z MON. H85 TEMPS ARE SIMILAR WITH              
ETA AND AVN -2 C SUPPORTING MAINLY SNOW AND WARM +1 NGM RAIN. 1000-             
H85 MB CRITICAL THICKNESSES TELL SAME STORY SUNDAY EVENING WITH AVN             
AND ETA COOL ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...EVEN WITH SEMI-SATURATED VERTICAL            
PROFILE...WHILE NGM SUPPORTS RAIN. WILL GO WITH COOLER AVN AND ETA...           
AND THROUGH IN POSSIBILITY OF MIX AT ONSET. IF SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND           
WRAPS WARMER AIR INTO IT...COULD BE INTERESTING. LOOKING AT                     
ISENTROPICS ON 290 K SFC...BEST LIFT AGAIN PROGGED ACRS AREA SUNDAY             
BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES. AGAIN...HIGH COND PRES DEFICITS SHOW THAT                
INITIAL LIFT GOES INTO SATURATION PROCESS. ETA GARCIA METHOD LOOKS              
LIKE 1-3 INCHES FROM 00Z-12Z MON...WHILE AVN GOES 2-4 INCHES BY 15Z             
MON MORNING. WITH POSSIBILITY OF MIX CUTTING DOWN ON AMOUNTS...WILL             
AGAIN ONE MORE TIME MENTION THAT SOME ACCUMULATION LIKELY AND NOT GO            
WITH AMOUNTS YET. H85 FRNT PASSES WITH STIFF H85 CAA ACRS CWA BY 12Z            
MON. WITH -20 C H85 COLD POOL POISED UPSTREAM TO SWEEP ACRS CWA                 
LATER ON MON...AND AVN DEEPENS SFC LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER GRT LKS            
INDUCING TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACRS IA...LOOKS LIKE COLD WINDY DAY ON             
MONDAY WITH S-] AND BS. INTERESTING THAT AVN ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS                
POINTS TO ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW WITH GOOD LIFT CENTERED              
AROUND 06Z TUE...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PINT TO ONLY 1-2 INCHES           
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BY TUE MORNING.                             
...EXTENDED...NEXT TUE-WED-THU...                                               
EUROPEAN...CANADIAN...AND MRF ALL SIMILAR IN HANDLING HIGH AMPLITUDE            
L/W TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUE. ALTHOUGH WESTWARD EXTENT OF           
HIGHER RH/S AND WRAP-AROUND FROM NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING SYSTEM IS            
BASICALLY EAST OF CWA ON TUE...MRF AND CANADIAN CONTINUE WITH                   
IMPRESSIVE PVA ACRS CWA AS ANOTHER VORT DROPS THROUGH MID BASE                  
PORTION OF L/W. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MILK OUT LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES           
AND MRF POPS SUPPORT THIS. H85 COLD POOL OF AT LEAST -15 TO -18 C               
FILTERS ACRS CWA BY LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT. FMR HIGHS FOR TUE LOOK              
OKAY...BUT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING LOWS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY WARM WITH           
SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA AND SNOW COVER. EXTENDED MODELS THEN                  
DIVERGE ON WED AS EUROPEAN NOW FLIP-FLOPS AND SHIFTS CLIPPER SYSTEM             
ACRS WEST IA INTO MO BY WED MORNING. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO                
SHIFT EAST ACRS OH RVR VALLEY THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD            
DEFINITELY LEAD TO ANOTHER SNOW EVENT FOR THE DVN CWA...BUT MRF                 
CONTINUES IT/S DRY WED SOLUTION AS SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES MID MS RVR                
VALLEY AND SEMI-SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING ACRS L/W.               
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHIFTS LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH ACRS NORTHERN MN            
INTO THE WEST GRT LKS WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT THEN SHIFTS ACTIVITY              
SOUTHEAST ACRS CWA BY THU MORNING AND FOR THURSDAY. AS OF NOW JUST              
LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. CANADIAN IN-BETWEEN...BUT CLOSER TO             
EURO AND HINTS AT CLIPPER AFFECTING PART OF AREA WED. WITH                      
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAN TO MORE CONSISTENT MRF AND KEEP WED DRY FOR             
NOW...ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT COME BACK AND BITE ME. WILL THROUGH IN CHANCE           
OF S- ON THURSDAY LEANING TOWARD MRF CLIPPER. EURO ALSO HAS SECONDARY           
TROUGH INDUCING H85-H7 LAYER WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS AREA                  
THURSDAY ALSO HINTING AT S- POTENTIAL. FEEL FMR NUMBERS MAY BE TOO              
WARM FOR THU AND WILL UNDERCUT SOMEWHAT.                                        
COORDINATED WITH LOT...THANX.                                                   
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
HLADIK                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
335 PM EST SAT DEC 18 1999                                                      
MAIN PROBLEM DEALS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MONDAY ACROSS MY                 
NORTHWEST ZONES.  MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WARM LOW LEVEL AIR                  
ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM HEADING OUR WAY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND            
MONDAY.  NGM IS THE WARMEST WHILE THE ETA IS COOLEST.  I AM LEANING             
TOWARD THE AVN...WHICH HAS SHOWN DECENT CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS            
RUN AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA AND NGM.  STILL...I FEEL                
THAT THE AVN IS SLIGHTLY TO WARM WITH THIS SYSTEM.  LOOKING A                   
THICKNESS VALUES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAINLY  A LIQUID SCENARIO             
SHOULD WORK THROUGH MONDAY...BUT MY NW COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIX OR              
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.  TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST              
...WILL KEEP SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IN MY NW COUNTIES ON MONDAY.               
AS WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...TERRAIN COULD COME INTO PLAY AS WELL.            
AS FOR TONIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN.  LOWER             
CLOUDS THAT HAVE PLAGUED MY NW COUNTIES...HAS SHOWN SOME DECREASE               
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE ACCORDING TO THE PAST COUPLE OF VISIBLE                 
PICTURES.  RUC MODEL 925 MB RH CONFIRMS THIS AND WILL WORD MY                   
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING.                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUGH CALL.  AFTER LAST NIGHT...WHEN                     
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN AREAS THAT STAYED                
CLEAR...FEEL THAT MANY PLACES COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS.  THIS IS               
WHAT I AM FORECASTING.  IF THE SOUTHEAST WIND PERSISTS...MANY PLACES            
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET THIS LOW.                                                   
THEN FOR SUNDAY...TIME SECTIONS FOR RH...SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE               
ARRIVING AND WILL WORD THE ZONES AS INCREASING CLOUDS.  HIGHS                   
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.                                          
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION             
AND LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LIFT UP FROM THE NORTH.  AM THINKING               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIPITATION                      
ARRIVES...BUT IF WE START THE NIGHT OFF MOSTLY CLEAR...SOME PLACES              
COULD DROP BELOW FREEZING.  THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING OF THE             
RAIN ON COLDER SURFACES.  WILL LEAVE THIS OUT FOR NOW.  FORECAST                
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM LAYER WILL KEEP SNOW AND SLEET OUT OF THE                
PICTURE.                                                                        
THEN FOR MONDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE                    
FRONT...SUGGESTING A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT.  WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON              
THE WARM SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...AND THUS MAINLY RAIN IS FORECASTED.             
ALOFT...A VERY STRONG JET MAX WILL BE IN PLACE.  WE ARE TO BE IN THE            
DIVERGENT LEFT QUADRANT OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD ACT TO ENHANCE            
PRECIPITATION VALUES...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.  GENERALLY HIGHS            
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S EXPECTED.                                           
EXTENDED FORECAST                                                               
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL US AT            
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS ARE THE              
QUICKER SOLUTIONS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH SHOW            
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 1000-500 THICKNESS VALUES NEAR 510.               
BOTH THE 12Z AVN AND THE MRF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING IN THE                
COLD AIR. ATTM WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. WITH THE MODELS                
SHOWING THE JET DIVING TOWARD THE GULF...I LIKE THE AVN AND MRF                 
SOLUTIONS OF SHOWING A WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND               
MOVING NORTH. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT            
A LITTLE BIT. WILL LOOK FOR FROPA MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY FALLING            
TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH CAA. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS              
AROUND 5K FEET MONDAY NIGHT. SO ANY LES THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULDN/T             
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY EVEN THOUGH H85 TEMPS DROP FROM NEAR 0 AT 00Z              
TO -9C ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT 12Z. PROFILE DRYS OUT QUITE A BIT BY              
WED MORNING BEFORE MOISTENING RAPIDLY WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT               
SYSTEM...BUT TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY            
ON WED AND MO CLDY WITH CHC OF SNOW ON THU AS WAA DEVELOPS IN SW                
FLOW. WILL GO CLOSE TO MRF TEMPS.                                               
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi