FXUS64 KFWD 081743 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z MON.  WEAK 
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 850 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCT/BKN LAYER AROUND 
5-6KFT AND EVEN ISO SHRA IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN-MOST TAF SITES 
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHRA SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND POSE NO THREAT TO P6SM 
VISIBILITIES.  ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING 
MCS TO THE NW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 
BKN ALTOCUMULUS DECK LINGERING AROUND 10KFT. TR/92

&&

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR 
LATE THIS MORNING. HAVE SPREAD LOW POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE WEST OF A BONHAM...TO HEARNE LINE. THE BEST 
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 
WESTERN ZONES. MINOR TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT/SKY COVER ADJUSTMENTS WERE 
ALSO MADE. ALL UPDATED WORDED AND GRIDDED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. 
#58 

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 2004

SIMILAR SITUATION TO YDY WITH LINEAR MCS OVER NW TX/WRN OK WHICH HAS 
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE AND NW FLOW SHORTWAVE OVER KS/NRN 
OK THIS MORNING...AND IS DROPPING DOWN ERN PERIPHERY OF H85-H7 
THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX. CORFIDI VECTORS WHICH 
ARE RELIABLE MOST CASES IN MOVEMENT OF MCS/S SHOWING SEWD MOVEMENT 
TO ABOUT WICHITA FALLS/ABILENE LINE...THEN A SHIFT TO DUE SOUTH. 
WILL INSERT 20 PERCENT WEST OF BOWIE...MINERAL 
WELLS...HAMILTON...TEMPLE LINE ONCE AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL RAISE TO 
CHANCE POPS PENDING RADAR TRENDS. AGAIN DRIER LOW LVL AIRMASS EAST 
OF THE AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT MAYBE SPRINKLES MAKING IT 
TO I-35. WILL LINGER THESE LOW POPS THROUGH SUNSET OUT WEST. CLOUDS 
FROM MCS ANVIL BLOW OFF COULD BE AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS TRICKY 
IF BLOW OFF LINGERS LIKE SATURDAY...DESPITE SLIGHT LOW LVL THICKNESS 
RISES... ESPECIALLY W/SW ZONES. RIGHT NOW...THINKING A DEGREE OR TWO 
BELOW CONSENSUS MOS AND STAYING CONSERVATIVE ON WARM UP TODAY THE 
WAY TO GO.  OTHERWISE... WILL PATTERN STAYS STAGNANT TONIGHT-MON 
NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NM...BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WNWD 
BY MON NIGHT. WARM UP MONDAY WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT...AS CLOUDS FROM 
DYING W TX MCS SHOULD PLAY A FACTOR WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW 
LVL THERMAL FIELDS.

MED RANGE MODELS (IE...GFS LR/ECMWF/UKMET) ALL AGREEING ON HUDSON 
BAY VORTEX DEEPENING AND EXPANDING SWD INTO THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY 
REGION TUES/BEYOND...AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES WWD OVER THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/WEST COAST. TIMING OF FRONT/CONVECTION/COOL CP 
AIRMASS NOT TOTALLY CERTAIN ATTM...BUT WOULD GUESS RED RIVER AREA 
DAYBREAK WED...THEN COLD FRONT SURGING ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO NRN 
MEXICO 24 HRS LATER. SO WILL INDICATE A WETTER/COOLER FCST WED/THURS 
WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATION FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. PLAYED IT 
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW BEING THAT IT/S AUGUST...BUT WOULDN/T BE 
SURPRISED IF TEMPS ARE LOWERED EVEN A CATEGORY MORE IN THE COMING 
DAYS. VERY UNTYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER...BUT DON/T TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE 
GOING TO COMPLAIN. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR EXCELLENT COORD 
THIS MORNING.  #05

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITIES...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   90  72  94  74 /  20  10   0   0
WACO, TX               91  71  94  72 /  20  20   0   0
PARIS, TX              89  67  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
DENTON, TX             89  70  94  71 /  20  10   0  10
MCKINNEY, TX           90  68  93  72 /  20  10   0  10
DALLAS, TX             90  73  94  75 /  20  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX            91  71  94  73 /  10   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          92  70  94  73 /  20  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             91  72  95  72 /  20  20   0   0

 &&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

$$