SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
212 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING             
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...                                
NORTHERLY SURGE PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                         
DEW POINTS BEHIND THE SURGE STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER              
50S.  SHORTWAVE IN SATELLITE PICS NOW IN NORTHWEST COLORADO WILL                
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RUC40 AND 12Z MESO ETA STILL           
INDICATING THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG THE             
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS FROM AROUND PUB SOUTH AND EASTWARD. LAPS SHOWING            
CAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEARS OF AROUND 40 KTS.  A                   
SUPERCELL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE SHEARS.  SPC               
HAS ISSUED SVR WATCH FOR PORTION OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH                     
HAIL PRIMARY THREAT.   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID EVENING             
AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.                            
THURSDAY/THURS NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH AVN                
STILL HINTING AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER OR/NRN CA ROUNDING             
TOP OF RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT MUCH QG ASCENT WITH THIS                 
FEATURE...AND EVEN PV FIELDS NOT PICKING UP ON IT.  ATMOSPHERE                  
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO                
LITTLE INFLUENCE HERE.  ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND ANOTHER                   
NORTHERLY SURGE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AND NEAR SOUTHEAST            
MOUNTAINS.  ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...MESO ETA HINTS AT A WEAK                  
CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF NORTHERLY SURGE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE              
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND CAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. CONVECTIVE                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80.  ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY            
COULD ALSO HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL THROW IN SOME 20 POPS             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  0-6KM SHEAR IS AROUND 35-40KTS BUT                    
INSTABILITY ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO SEVERE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY             
MINIMAL YET.  700 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS...SO IT SHOULD             
WARM UP ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE TODAYS HIGHS.  GOING ZONES LOOK GOOD             
ALTHOUGH MAY TWEEK TEMPS DOWN A BIT IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                        
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS                
LOOK GOOD.                                                                      
FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT              
EAST WITH SHALLOW COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE             
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION                
INTO NRN IL. ITS ASSOCIATED 100KT UPPER JET DIVES DOWN CENTRAL                  
PLAINS. AVN IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SFC SURGE THAN ETA...PROBABLY            
A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH MOVEMENT OF UPPER             
TROUGH.  STILL LOOKS PRETTY DRY...EVEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS SO               
WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FORECAST.   IN SPITE OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE...           
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT ALL THAT COOL.  UPPER RIDGE               
SHIFTING OVER AREA WARM 700 TEMPS TO +10 IN THE EAST TO +17 IN THE              
WEST. WITH GOOD MIXING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S                  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                                            
EXTENDED...                                                                     
SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL                 
PLAINS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE IN BC CUTS DOWN UPPER RIDGE AS IT MOVES                
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY FOR            
SATURDAY...THEN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NRN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY                
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. WILL BREAK OUT SUNDAY TO ADD SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
INTO SOUTHEAST PLAINS AREAS.  ELSEWHERE REMAINS DRY.   ANOTHER UPPER            
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD FOR MONDAY THEN TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH              
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN ON SOUTHEAST                
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.                                           
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
KT                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
311 AM MDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
CURRENTLY: RGNL RADAR SHOWING BAND OF SHRA/TSTM ACROSS NERN CO IN               
RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PER 40KM RUC 500-                 
300MB LAYER VORT.  PRECIPITATION HAVING A TOUGH TIME MOVING SWD AND             
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING/SHRINKING ON THE LAST FEW IMAGES.  LATEST               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL SHOWING NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE                
ACROSS NRN GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING NWRN CO LATER THIS AM.            
ALSO...STRONG CYCLONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS ALBERTA CAN AND MAY                    
INFLUENCE ERN CWFA WEATHER BY FRI.                                              
TDA-TNGT: THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WX SHOULD BE VERY LOW OR NIL TDA.               
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVING EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NEXT DISTURBANCE               
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CO THIS AFTN.  MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND                 
ASSOCIATED 300-200MB PV ANOMALY PROGGED TO RACE ACROSS CWFA THIS                
AFTN/EARLY EVE.  LOW LEVEL(850-700MB) FLOW SHOULD BECOME NE-ELY LATER           
THIS AM/AFTN PROVIDING WEAK OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FOR SERN CO MTNS/                 
ADJACENT PLAINS AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN SD.  SUFFICIENT VERTICAL                  
MOISTURE...700-500MB SPECIFIC HUMDITY VALUES 3-4 G/KG...STILL IN                
PLACE FOR SHRA/TSTM PRODUCTION.  THIS COMBINED WITH LIFTING                     
MECHANISMS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CURRENT LOW POPS IN ZFP.                 
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE AS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.               
CAPES PROGGED TO BE 200-1000 J/KG BY 18Z/30...THEN DECREASE DURING              
THE AFTN.  BLAYER BEST LIS FORECAST TO BE 0C TO -2C. STEEPEST MID-              
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AROUND 9.0 C/KM...FORECAST TO BE IN WRN 1/2 OF              
CO.  SO...SEVERE WX THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW...AT THE MOMENT. IF           
STRONGER TSTMS DO FORM THIS AFTN...THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO            
1/2 INCH...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...AND SEVERAL CLOUD TO GROUND                
LIGHTNING STRIKES.  ALWAYS CONCERNED ABOUT LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW                   
JUXTAPOSED WITH W-NWLY FLOW NEAR THE SERN CO MTNS FOR THE POTENTIAL             
OF SUPERCELLS.  0-6KM SHEAR PROGGED TO BE 30-35KTS ALONG SERN CO MTNS           
THIS AFTN ALONG WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES OF 150-200 M2/S2...BUT               
CAPE FAIRLY WEAK AT BEST AND WOULDN'T SUPPORT VIGOROUS VERTICAL                 
VELOCITIES.  MAV/FWC MOS TEMP GUIDANCE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE                 
BETTER FOR TDA'S HIGHS.  SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH NEAR THESE NUMBERS             
GIVEN A LITTLE SUNSHINE...BUT NE-ELY FLOW HAS A TENDENCY TO REALLY              
TRIM TEMPS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD           
DIMINISH THIS EVE.  OVERALL...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS GOOD.                           
THU-THU NGT: 90-110KT ULJ FORECAST TO DIVE INTO NRN ROCKIES/NRN                 
PLAINS THU AFTN AS ASSOCIATED CYCLONE DROPS INTO UPPER MS RIVER                 
VALLEY THU NGT.  STRONG RIDING DEVELOPS IN WRN US BETWEEN CNTL US               
SYSTEM AND INCOMING PACIFIC NW SYSTEM.  SFC FEATURES FAIRLY BENIGN.             
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NWLY FLOW...BUT NO 300-200MB             
PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  VERTICAL MOISTURE STILL HANGING                 
AROUND WITH 700MB TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY.  INSTABILITY AGAIN PRETTY             
WEAK WITH CAPE VALUES 200-400 J/KG AND BLAYER BEST LIS 0C TO -2C.               
ALL ELEMENTS IN PLACE FOR CURRENT LOW CONDITIONAL POP...MAINLY                  
DIURNAL SHRA/TSTM.  HINTS OF SOME WEAK 700MB WAA ACROSS SERN CO THU             
NGT...WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE NON-SFC BASED SHRA/TSTM. WILL HOLD              
OFF ON ADDING POPS TO SERN CO PLAINS THU NGT.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT              
ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD AND GENERALLY IN-LINE WITH NWP MOS GUIDANCE.               
SEE NO REASON TO ALTER.                                                         
EXTENDED(FRI-TUE): THERE IS A LITTLE CONFLICTING MODEL GUIDANCE FOR             
EXTENDED PERIODS. GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...THOUGH.            
ON FRI...CYCLONE MOVES INTO MID MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES RGN             
WITH ASSOCIATED SHALLOW COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SERN CO.               
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKY MTNS               
AS PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE COMES ON SHORE. THE CONFLICT IN THE MODELS IS           
THE DEG/DEPTH OF MOISTURE.  AVN OVERLY MOIST...ESPECIALLY AT 500MB...           
ALONG THE SERN CO MTNS.  WHILE ETA IS NEARLY "BONE DRY"...RH 10-                
20%...500-300MB WITHIN THE RIDGE.  COULDN'T RULE OUT DIURNAL MTN CU             
WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE.  PLAN TO LEAN TOWARDS              
ETA SOLUTION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR FRI.           
SERN CO TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST AS ELY FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS IN                 
ADVANCE OF SFC HIGH SLIDING INTO AND ALONG CO/KS BORDER.  ON SAT...             
"MONSTER" UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO ROCKY MTNS WITH 500MB AND                
700MB TEMPS WARMING TO -8C AND +14C TO +18C...RESPECTFULLY.  AVN                
PROGGING VERY WEAK DISTURBANCES TOPPING RIDGE.  DRYLINE/TROUGH SETS             
UP ALONG CO/KS BORDER...HOWEVER MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE           
IN PLACE IN ERN CO/WRN KS. POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSTM WILL SOLELY RELY             
ON STRENGTH OF ANY SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL CONVG ZONE TO BUST                  
THROUGH ERN CO PLAINS CAP.  SAT CERTAINLY LOOKS WARM WITH NEAR 90F IN           
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. NOW...AVN HAS SHORTWAVE BREAKING DOWN RIDGE ON           
SUN WITH LATE DAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND COOLER TEMPS.  PLAN NOT TO             
ALTER DAYS 4-5 AND LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR NEXT MODEL RUNS FOR ANY                
CHANGES.  DAYS 6-7...STILL IN SW-WLY FLOW.  NO CHANGES.                         
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
302 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
SYNOPSIS: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE FRONT IS MAKING            
VERY SLOW SWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MOST OF GA AND AL ZONES             
ON THE NORTH SIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND FL ZONES ON THE                
MOIST SIDE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. LAST OF YESTERDAY/S                
CONVECTION FIZZLED ACROSS THE ERN BIG BEND AROUND 04Z WHILE A FEW               
RENEGADE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF THE ERN                 
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES             
SHOW A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE TN VALLEY. W/ A LOBE                 
EXTENDING SWWD INTO CENTRAL MS.                                                 
MODEL DISCUSSION: E COAST UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES SLOWLY EWD TODAY             
ALLOWING WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE            
TN VALLEY SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT SWINGS A LOBE OF                 
VORTICITY ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONT              
IS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH. BELIEVE THE AVN AND NGM ARE A BIT TOO FAST             
AND FAVOR THE SLOWER ETA WHICH STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR COASTAL              
AREA TODAY. BY THU...THE FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT            
TO OUR W. 1000-700MB FLOW IS 6-10 KT OUT OF THE W WHICH IS NORMALLY             
GOOD FOR SEA BREEZE CONVECTION COVERAGE. HOWEVER...PW IS ABOUT A STD            
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALSO BELOW...BUT              
W/IN A STD DEVIATION OF CLIMO. THU NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT RACES NEWD            
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT              
WILL MOVE INTO NRN AL BY 12Z FRI.                                               
PUBLIC FORECAST: DUE TO THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...WILL KEEP ISOLD                
(10) POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR FL ZONES ONLY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE              
(20) IN THE SE BIG BEND. NO POPS THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. FOR                   
THU...WILL UNDERCUT CLIMO BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT AND ESSENTIALLY KEEP              
CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE (30) IN FL AND AL DOWN TO ISOLD IN OUR             
NRN GA ZONES. WILL USE MAINLY EVENING WORDING FOR THU NIGHT. A BLEND            
OF FWC AND MAV TEMP GUIDANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED.                                  
MARINE: OFFSHORE WINDS OCCUR BRIEFLY IF AT ALL THIS MORNING W/ SW               
WINDS REESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. NO                  
HEADLINES.                                                                      
FIRE WX: MARGINAL RH DURATIONS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON ARE NOW LOOKING EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH EVEN THE ETA              
BOTTOMING OUT AT ONLY 36% AT TLH. FIRE WX FORECASTER WILL THEREFORE             
DROP WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES TODAY. POSSIBLY ANOTHER MARGINAL DAY ON             
THU FOR INLAND BIG BEND ZONES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCH                  
ISSUANCE THIS FAR OUT.                                                          
EXTENDED: SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE CONVECTION IN            
THE SRN PLAINS WILL MERGE WITH SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY TO BEGIN                  
AMPLIFYING ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE MS VALLEY AREA THU NIGHT             
INTO FRI. THIS TROUGH AXIS THEN SWINGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRI ALONG WITH               
SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE FRONT THEN SETTLES CLOSER TO...IF             
NOT ACROSS...THE CWFA ON SAT...SO CURRENT PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR              
FRI/SAT LOOKS GOOD. WE MAY GET A POST FROPA DRIER DAY ON SUN...BUT              
WILL LEAVE DAYS 5-7 ALONE FOR NOW.                                              
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  91 63 90 65  1031                                                          
PFN  88 69 85 71  1031                                                          
DHN  89 67 88 69  -032                                                          
ABY  89 65 90 68  -011                                                          
VLD  90 63 92 66  -022                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                     
15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING WARM FRONT LOCATED ACRS CNTRL MO WITH LOW           
PRESSURE SITUATED IN EAST CNTRL KS. SVL OUTFLOW BNDRIES NOTED ACRS              
WRN TN AND ERN OK WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. LATEST           
RUC MODEL SUGGESTING LOW TO INCH SLOWLY ACRS ERN KS THIS AFTN WITH              
BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE REMAINING OUT TO OUR WEST...ACRS ERN IA AND            
MO. LATER TNT INTO THU MRNG...LOW LVL JET FCST TO INTENSIFY AGAIN TO            
OUR SOUTHWEST AS BNDRY SHIFTS CLOSER TO STATE. LATEST ETA SHOWING               
BEST 925 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE 250 MB DIVERGENCE          
ACRS OUR FAR SWRN COUNTIES TNT WITH VERY LITTLE INDICATED ACRS THE              
NE...CLOSER TO SLOWLY DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT FCST HAS HIGHEST            
POPS ACRS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AND TNT..WHILE PRECIP WL             
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACRS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY LATE TNT.                  
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION SO OTHER THAN SOME MINOR              
CHANGES TO PRECIP WORDING ACRS THE WEST...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE                  
PLANNED TO LATE MORNING UPDATE.                                                 
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
240 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
LIKE WHAT THE AVN IS DOING WITH THE FEATURES THROUGH 06Z...BUT LIKE             
THE ETA SPEED (SLOWER). EITHER WAY BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A                     
SIGNIFICANT OCCLUDED SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF              
RAIN AGAIN. DRY LOW EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN AT BAY FOR                 
MOST OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOW THIS CLEARLY WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE            
DEFICITS REMAINING QUITE HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RUC/ETA INDICATE             
PRECIP TO GET INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA DURING THE                 
DAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO             
NORTHEAST...WITH DBQ/FEE AREAS LIKELY SEEING PRECIP MORE TOWARD                 
MORNING.                                                                        
RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA ON THURSDAY. GIVEN SLOW MOVING NATURE              
OF SYSTEM...POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL               
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS CLOSE TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE               
FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR HEAVY                
RAIN POTENTIAL AS MOST AREA RIVERS STILL RUNNING QUITE FULL.                    
FWC/FAN/MAV NUMBERS SHOW A LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES WITH                    
FAN/MAV BEING COLDER THAN FWC. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.              
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED ATTM.                                                    
COORDINATED WITH DSM...STL...ILX...AND CHI.                                     
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1100 AM MDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                     
UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST TEMP RANGE DOWN A BIT AND INCREASE WINDS TO             
BREEZY CATEGORY.                                                                
LATEST ANALYSIS HAS ABUNDANT STRATUS COVERING THE CWA WITH RUC/ETA              
NOT HANDLING IT VERY WELL. DESPITE THEIR FORECASTS OF THINNING IT               
OUT/MOVING IT EAST SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. GRADIENT WINDS               
HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. SO IN A NUTSHELL...              
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN TO 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE AND BUMPED UP WINDS TO             
BREEZY CATEGORY. KEPT 30 POPS AS IS WITH KAIN-FRITSCH SUGGESTING                
SOME TRW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND MAYBE A FEW WITH                  
APPROACHING WAVE NOW PUSHING INTO THE DENVER URBAN CORRIDOR. NO OTHER           
CHANGES MADE.                                                                   
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
950 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
LOW CLOUDS HANGING IN A LITTLE LONGER THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GO                
AHEAD AND GIVE WAY TO THE SCT-BKN VARIETY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL               
CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING AND ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS REASON.             
STAGE IS STILL BEING SET FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE                 
TODAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED VALLEY OF N TX/SE OK/SW AR. GATEWAY                 
PROBLEMS HAVE RESULTED IN A DELAY IN CREDITABLE MODEL DATA. RUC                 
FORECAST CAPE AND INSTABILITY ARE INCREDIBLY HIGH NEAR AND ALONG                
THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK THIS EVENING. A STRONGLY CAPPED                    
ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING ON FTW/SHV SOUNDINGS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH                 
FOR INITIATION TO BEGIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST...                 
MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PER SPC REQUEST...WILL SEND               
UP 18Z SOUNDING TO MONITOR STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION.             
AFTER COORD WITH LIT AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC...WILL GO AHEAD AND                
CANCEL WWA 327 WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.             
THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE CHANGING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MORE TO               
COME.                                                                           
UPDATE OUT BY 1100 AM...13                                                      
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
325 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2001                                                      
MAIN QUESTION THIS FCST CYCLE IS HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL TODAY AND              
THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND WHETHER FFA SHOULD BE ISSUED TO MATCH              
EAX AND SGF.  ALSO WONDERING WHAT ALL THIS RAIN WILL DO TO                      
TEMPERATURES AND IF WE ARE LOOKING AT A MORNING HIGH TODAY.                     
CANNOT SAY THE MODELS ARE ALL THAT HELPFUL THIS MORNING.  THE ETA               
PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW OVER             
KANSAS...BUT IS SLOW TO FIGURE THAT OUT.  THE RUC CATCHES THIS                  
FEATURE A LITTLE EARLIER BUT ITS PRECIP FIELDS DO NOT LOOK QUITE                
RIGHT...ESP WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER SERN KS AND OK.  THE ETA PRECIP              
FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER OK/KS...BUT ALSO PRINTED AN INCH ACROSS NW MO            
THRU 06Z THAT DID NOT WORK OUT.                                                 
ALL THE MODELS INITIALIZED A LITTLE TOO WEAK AGAIN WITH THE TROF                
OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS SEEMS TO BE A TREND FROM THE LAST 3 OR 4                 
RUNS.  THE EFFECT OF THIS ON THE MODEL PROGS IS NOT COMPLETELY                  
CLEAR...BUT IS PROBABLY A FACTOR IN THEIR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE               
SFC LOW OVER KS.  THE SHARPER TROF ALSO SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING THE                
MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THAN THE MODELS HAVE IT...WITH                  
WEAKER BITS OF ENERGY TOUCHING OFF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER MO AND IL.                
FOR TODAY THIS MAY MEAN A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW...WITH              
PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TSRA ACTIVITY.                  
GIVEN THIS TYPE OF PROGRESSION...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE FLASH                
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.  FLOODING CERTAINLY DOES LOOK LIKE A REAL             
POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THIS CYCLONE SPINS ACROSS THE             
AREA...BUT MORE BECAUSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN.                         
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL CUT A BIT FROM THE FWC IN FIRST PD BUT               
LEAN TOWARD THOSE NUMBERS AFTER THAT.                                           
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR EXTENDED.                                          
COORD WITH DVN.                                                                 
.STL...NONE.                                                                    
LENNING                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1122 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001                                                     
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST                       
DATA THIS EVENING.                                                              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 30/00Z SHOWED 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER                   
SERN CO WITH TROF EXTENDING SWD INTO NM. COLD TROF AT 500MB                     
INDICATED WEST OF MAIN TROF AXIS...INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING                   
SYSTEM. A BRANCH OF BROAD WEST COAST JET...AT 500MB AND 250MB                   
...WAS ANALYZED TO BE DIGGING INTO WEST SIDE OF MEAN TROF AXIS.                 
ANOTHER INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION. BOTH THE CAA AND DIGGING                 
UPPER JET WOULD ALSO LEAD TO SLOWER MOVEMENT OF TROF. THIS                      
SLOWING OF THE TROF WILL MEAN THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE                  
DELAYED OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOT REALLY INCRSG                    
UNTIL AFTER 30/09Z OR 4 AM.                                                     
LATEST MODEL QPF 6HR FCSTS FROM RUC...ETA...AND AVN FCST RAINFALL               
TO INCRS AFTER 30/09Z.                                                          
OTHER DYNAMIC FEATURES PRESENT INCLUDE UVV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION           
FROM UPPER JET CURVING FROM WI TO OH. UVV FROM LEFT EXIT REGION OF              
JET MAX OVER SRN OK.                                                            
THERMODYNAMICALLY...STRONG 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS NRN             
OK. MOISTURE WAS ANALYZED TO BE RATHER CHOPPY AS ONE MOISTURE AXIS              
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL MO TO WRN KS. ANOTHER ONE FROM SRN AR TO NRN TX.            
WHILE A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF MOISTURE WAS NOTED OVER CNTRL OK.                   
850MB SRLY FLOW INCRSG FROM OK TO CNTRL KS...AS PER 30/03Z PROFILER             
DATA...BUT FLOW RELATIVELY WEAK OVER SWRN MO...AS A RESULT OF SMALL             
SCALE HIGH OVER ERN AR...DISRUPTING SRLY FLOW.                                  
SURFACE FEATURES A REAL MESS THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES                   
DOMINATE ACROSS KS/MO/AR. IT APPEARS THAT MESO RIDGING CONTROLS                 
SFC FLOW FROM MO/AR TO OK...RESULTING IN INCONSISTENT SFC WIND FLOW.            
SFC WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER IN SRN OK TO               
A LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST SFC INFLOW               
ATTM...AND THAT IS WHERE MOST SVR TSTMS HAVE OCCURRED LATE THIS                 
EVENING.                                                                        
LATEST RADAR FROM KICT AND KINX SHOWED SVRL BOW ECHOES WITHIN LINEAR            
LINE OF TSTMS FROM ECNTRL KS TO CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT 700MB            
FLOW WAS AT BEST 40KTS OVER KS...NOT SURE THAT SVR WIND GUSTS ARE               
GOING TO OCCUR. ALSO 30/00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SHOWED MOIST LOWER                
LAYERS...INDICATIVE OF A LOW POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.                 
LATEST SPC DAPE FIELD SHOWED BEST SVR GUST POTENTIAL TO BE FAR TO               
THE SW...OVER SWRN OK.                                                          
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE THE CWFA WILL BE EXPERIENCING ELEVATED CONVECTION            
OVERNGT AND WED AM. AS IT APPEARS THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL                
BE MOST FAVORABLE OVER SRN OK AND NRN TX...WHILE ONGOING TSTMS OVER             
KS/OK WILL TEND TO COOL SFC LAYER AND REMOVE SFC DYNAMICS FROM BEING            
A PLAYER. ALSO STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AT 850MB...AS MENTIONED                  
EARLIER WOULD ARGUE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION.                                    
THE 30/00Z RUN OF ETA MODEL SHOWS THAT 850MB LOW WILL DEEPEN                    
OVERNIGHT AND WED AM OVER NERN KS. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN SRLY            
WIND FLOW INTO THE CWFA WITH TIME...HELP TO ORGANIZE THE MOISTURE               
FIELD...THUS TRANSLATING INTO INCREASING RAINFALL RATES.                        
.SGF...                                                                         
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                  
FOR ZONES...KSZ073-097-101                                                      
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                  
FOR ZONES...MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088>096-101>105                          
D.STEINMETZ                                                                     
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