FXUS64 KMAF 061917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...
KMAF 88-D VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEERING TO NORTHERLY ALOFT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMING
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  MSAS ANALYSES INDICATED A MID-LEVEL THETA-E 
RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF  
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 
NEARLY 1.5 INCHES...140 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT MIDLAND AND 115 PERCENT 
OF NORMAL AT DEL RIO PER MORNING SOUNDINGS.  WEAK SURFACE LEE SIDE  
TROUGHING /OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/ REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
TODAY.   

THIS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES 
TRANSITING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO INITIATE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY TO OUR NORTH...ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE TROUGH AND MCV TO OUR NORTH...WITH TRANJECTORIES 
INDICATING A POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY PROPOGATE SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. POP 
GRIDS WILL REFLECT CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS LEA COUNTY AND 
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...ALONG AND NORTH OF A HOBBS TO LAMESA 
LINE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERMIAN 
BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND DOWNWARD TRENDING TO ISOLATED 
MAINLY OROGRAPHIC RELATED STORMS SOUTH OF THE PECOS.  MODEL 
CONSENSUS AND FORECAST GRIDS REFLECT A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST FOR 
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.        

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE A BIT ON 
SATURDAY...LEAVING MUCH OF THE AREA IN A NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 
WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE AROUND THE RIDGE TOWARD 
THE AREA. A MOIST THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE 
TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE 
PERMIAN BASIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE 
ALONG THIS AXIS...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING 
MAX AFTERNOON HEATING. OTHER ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...PRIMARILY OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL 
PERSIST. THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/MOIST AXIS MAY BE ORIENTED MORE 
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE 
ON SUNDAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE BEST POPS /20 PCT/ ORIENTED ACROSS THE 
WEST AND NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ARIZONA THROUGH 
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE 
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL MAINLY BE ORIENTED 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE ANY CONVECTION 
THAT FIRES ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SLIDE 
SOUTHEAST INTO THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER AREAS
SHOULD SEE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. 
WEAK SHORTWAVES TRNASLATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY IGNITE 
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN PRIMARILY OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH 
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO 
PLAINS/NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN ALONG THE BEST MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY 
MAY BE LACKING ENOUGH TO KEEP STORM FORMATION TO A MINIMUM ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN 
TO FLATTEN A BIT WITH WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT.  
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER ROUGHLY THE 
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA...WHERE THE GREATEST (20 PCT) POPS HAVE 
BEEN KEPT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             71  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  10 
CARLSBAD NM               69  98  68  95 /  20  20  30  20 
DRYDEN TX                 73  95  70  94 /  10  20  20  10 
FORT STOCKTON TX          72  95  71  94 /  10  20  20  20 
GUADALUPE PASS TX         70  93  67  90 /  20  20  20  20 
HOBBS NM                  69  95  70  94 /  30  30  30  20 
MARFA TX                  63  91  60  89 /  10  20  20  20 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  10 
ODESSA TX                 72  94  72  93 /  20  30  20  20 
WINK TX                   76 100  74  99 /  20  30  20  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

$$

01/21