INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
330 AM PDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
SATELLITE AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DISTRICT UNDER THE              
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE UPPER LOW...NOW CENTERED               
NEAR 38N/142W...CONTINUES TO SPIN OFFSHORE AND IS TRACKING TOWARDS              
SOUTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA. TIMING OF THIS UPPER LOW TO PUSH THROUGH            
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS STILL SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY. AS THE LOW                
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL START TO SEE THE             
RIDGE FLATTEN TODAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HEIGHTS AND 850MB           
TEMP/S SHOW MINIMAL CHANGE TODAY /FROM SUNDAY/ SO WILL STAY WITH                
PERSISTENCE AND KEEP TEMP/S ABOUT THE SAME TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY.               
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE 10MB THIS                
MORNING FROM SFO-LAS. THIS IS TRANSLATING INTO CONTINUED LOCALLY                
BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW             
NO REAL DIFFERENCE IN THE GRADIENTS THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MAINTAIN           
CURRENT SPEEDS THROUGH OUT THE DAY.                                             
IN THE SHORT RANGE...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE             
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATER WEDNESDAY. WILL              
SEE BEST HEIGHT FALLS ON TUESDAY FOR THE START OF A COOLING TREND.              
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE             
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT. THE MAIN AFFECT             
WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME            
WEAK AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE. AFTER TUESDAY...THE DISTRICT WILL           
REMAIN UNDER A TROF PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...HEIGHTS START           
RECOVERING WITH AN AREA OF WEAKNESS REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE. YET...             
WILL STILL SEE TEMP/S RISE...SLOWLY...INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE           
TROF WILL PUSH THROUGH TOO FAR NORTH TO REALLY INCREASE THE WINDS               
INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA LEVELS. THEREFORE...WINDS WILL            
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS SPEEDS WILL ONLY             
REACH THE NORMAL AFTERNOON BREEZY LEVELS.                                       
NO REAL CONCERNS IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. LONGER RANGE             
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER TROF PUSHING INTO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT               
WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...MODELS SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH             
OF THE TROF...BUT ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. WILL DO                  
FURTHER ANALYSIS TO SEE HOW THIS NEXT TROF WILL INFLUENCE THE                   
WEATHER OF NEXT WEEK.                                                           
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
945 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  AREA OF MAINLY             
SHOWERS OVER WRN FA ATTM MOVG SE AHEAD OF S/WV.  BASED ON WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY...S/WV MOVE THRU NW IA AT 14Z SHOULD EXIT FA BY 20Z.              
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS HOLDING TOGETHER AND WILL             
FORECAST IN THRU THE SE CWA EARLY.                                              
NEXT PROBLEM IS REDEVELOPMENT.  MODELS NOT DO SO GOOD WITH THE                  
DETAILS.  BOTH THE RUC AND THE MESOETA FAILED TO HANDLE THE CURRENT             
CONVECTION SO THEIR SHORT TERM FORECAST TRENDS QUESTIONABLE.                    
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO NOW IS NEXT S/WV...CURRENTLY EXITING MT...TO               
MOVE SE ACRS THE PLAINS.  AMS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE WEST OF IA                
NEAR SFC WARMFRONT. I THINK THIS AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR              
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  700-300 SHEAR VECTOR SHOWS A SE                    
MOVEMENT INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING.  INCREASING 850 MB LOW-LVL JET SW            
OFIA TONIGHT WOULD ENHANCE A S PROPAGATING SYSTEM.  WILL KEEP                   
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WEST BASED ON THIS.                                        
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
215 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT-TUE):  SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE DVLPD UPSTREAM ACRS               
NYS/PA...MOST OF IT CONCENTRATED FROM BUF-PIT ATTM.  BOTH ETA/RUC TRY           
TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTVTY AS IT HEADS E LATE THIS AFTN...REACHING WRN             
PART OF FA AFT 21Z.  PCPN HAS QUITE A DISTANCE TO TRAVEL TO MAKE                
IT THIS FAR E BEFORE SUNSET...BUT INCRSG TT AND TQ INDICES INTO ERLY            
TNGT SUGGEST AT LEAST REMNANT SHWRS WL MAKE IT IN HERE.  ADDTL WDLY             
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS PRBLY WL FORM LATE THIS AFTN MNLY IN CT VLY AS                  
WELL...AND ALREADY SOME WEAK ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP IN ERN NY.  SO AM            
PLANNING TO CARRY MNTN INTO ERLY TNGT FOR AT LEAST WDLY SCTD                    
SHWRS/TSTMS...BUT WL MAKE FINAL CALL BASED UPON LATEST RADAR AND                
INCORPORATE LATEST RUC INTO GFE.                                                
OTRW NOT MUCH FOR TNGT ONCE ACTVTY DIMINISHES.                                  
SHUD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TUE AFTN AND WL PLAY                  
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO TDA WITH WKNG LN CNVTCN DSIPTG IN I-95 CORRIDOR             
LATE TUE AFTN.  INSTABY SOMEWHAT LWR THAN IT IS TDA AND CAPES                   
ARE LWR ALSO...BUT PASSING S/W SHUD BE ABLE TO INITIATE SOME CNVTCN             
DURG AFTN NONETHELESS.                                                          
NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST WITH LGT WND FLO.                                   
MID TERM (WED-THU):  PATTN QUIETS DOWN FOR MIDWK.  BASED UPON 12Z               
ETA/AVN AM GOING TO REMOVE MNTN OF PCPN WED FM INTERIOR ZNS. DESPITE            
SOME DIURNAL INSTABY AS UPR TROF IS SLO TO DEPART...NOT MUCH OF A               
TRIGGER PRESENT TO GENERATE PCPN IN WEAK SFC FLO AS LL CONV REMAINS             
LIMITED.  AVN THEN INDCTS WEAK BACKDOOR FNT DROPPING S THU MRNG WHICH           
IN ADDTN TO STABILIZING LO LVLS WL PREVENT TMPS FM GETTING TOO WARM             
AS UPR RDGE BLDS TO W.  WL BACK OFF ON MAX TMPS THU GIVEN LL NE FLO.            
LONG TERM (FRI-MON):  BIG QUESTION IS FCST FOR FRI AND BYD AND                  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HI ATTM.  PREVIOUSLY WAS LOOKING AT COUPLE OF            
CDFNTS ADVANCING E FM GRTLKS...ONE FRI NGT/SAT AND NXT MON.  AS                 
HINTED AT PAST FEW RUNS BY AVN...IT NOW CUTS OFF UPR LO OFF MIDATLC             
(IS THIS JUNE?) AS SFC LO ROTATES TWD CAPE COD AND SLWLY FILLS FRI.             
THIS WUD BRING RAIN WITH INCRSG NE WND TO AT LEAST ERN PART OF FA FRI           
AFTN/NGT...WITH LINGERING SHWRS AND DMNSHG WND SAT.  AVN NOW SHOWS              
ENUF RDGG ON WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYS TO PREVENT FIRST CDFNT FM                
GETTING ANY FARTHER E THAN GRTLKS SAT.  AM NOT GOING TO QUITE BUY               
INTO AVN SOLN JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DISPARITY THAT FAR OUT...AND WL              
ADJ ITS SOLN A LTL FARTHER S PER HPC...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AM GOING TO           
MAINTAIN CHC SHWRS FRI NGT/SAT AND KEEP SUN DRY (BUT MOCLDY) THEN               
HAVE ANOTHER CHC SHWRS MON WITH NEXT CDFNT.                                     
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD/BELK                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                     
FCST UPDATED ERLR TO REMOVE MNTN OF FOG...OTRW NO SIG CHGS.                     
STILL LOOKING AT POTL FOR AFTN CNVCTN THRUT FA...MAINLY IN THE 4 PM             
TO 8 PM TIMEFRAME.  12Z RUC AND 06Z ETA SHOW AMS DESTABILIZING DURG             
AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HTG AND COOLG ALF...WHILE WEAK SFC TROF                 
ADVANCES E FM NYS.  BOTH MDLS APPEAR TO INITIATE DVLPMNT ERLY THIS              
AFTN ACRS NYS/PA...TIED TO CURRENT AREA OF CLDNS MOVG ACRS OH.                  
SOUNDGS SHOW SURGE IN TT (INTO L50S) AND TQ (INTO L20S) LATE THIS               
AFTN/ERLY EVE WITH SB CAPES 500-100 J/KG...AXIS OF WHICH BCMS                   
ALIGNED FM BDL-ORH-MHT AT 00Z/TUE.  WND PROFILE REMAINS FAIRLY WK               
AND UNIDIRECTIONAL INTO TNGT...AND WET BULB ZERO HGT IS TOO LO TO               
SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE HAIL.  PRBLY LOOKING AT POTL FOR A COUPLE            
OF STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND 50 MPH GUSTS...AND THIS            
FITS IN WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLK THINKG.  XPCT STORMS TO WKN RAPIDLY AS              
WE APCH SUNSET...THO LEFTOVR SHWRS WL PRBLY LINGER THRU ERLY TNGT.              
DROPPED SCA FOR SEAS ALG SE OUTER WATERS.                                       
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD/CF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                     
SKIES ARE CLR ACROSS FA THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE                      
OVERSPREAD FA UNDER APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER MN/ONTARIO                
PER WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM               
JAMES BAY ACROSS FA AND THRU WI.                                                
ALREADY UPDATED ZONES EARLIER THIS EVENING TO TAKE OUT EVENING SHRA             
NEAR LK MICHIGAN AND TO MAKE SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO SKY/WIND/TEMPS             
ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER UPDATE IS NOT NEEDED THIS EVENING. IDEAL                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE TONIGHT UNDER CLOUDLESS             
SKIES/CALM WINDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE LOW-MID 40S LOOK RIGHT ON             
TARGET AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVED MINS THIS MORNING                
UNDER SFC RIDGE. CURRENT DWPTS ALSO SUPPORT MINS IN LOW/MID 40S.                
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIP                
INTO UPPER 30S OVER CNTRL FA. LIGHT DOWNSLOPING SERLY RETURN FLOW               
WILL DEVELOP FAR W OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES                 
HIGHER THERE.                                                                   
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP RUC ANAL SHOW CONFLUENT NWLY UPR FLOW OVR              
THE NW GRT LKS BTWN A TROF IN THE E AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE               
PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG OVR THE NW PLAINS THAT IS DOWNWND OF A VIGOROUS             
SHRTWV COMING ASHORE IN THE PAC NW. SFC RDG OVR LK SUP/DRY AIRMASS              
UNDER UPR LVL CONFLUENCE BRINGING TRANQUIL...PLEASANT WX TO CWA                 
TDAY. ONLY XCEPTION IS ACRS THE SRN TIER...WHERE SFC HTG/ENUF                   
LINGERING LLVL HAVE CAUSED SOME ISOLD -SHRA. MSTR UPRSTREAM 12Z INL             
SDNG QUITE DRY...PWAT ARND 0.40 INCH. SOME TSRA NOTED ALG H85                   
THERMAL RDG IN THE NW PLAINS AS SHRTWV IN SASKATCHEWAN MOVG THRU UPR            
RDG. TSRA WEAKENING ATTM AS CNVCTN MOVG E INTO DRY...CONFLUENT NWLY             
FLOW FASTER THAN PATTERN IS SHIFTING E.                                         
XPCT TRANQUIL PD TNGT AS SFC HI/DRY AIRMASS ALF OVR INL AT 12Z DRIFT            
OVHD. AFTR ISOLD -SHRA OVR THE S DSPT TOWARD SUNSET WITH LACK OF ANY            
DYNAMICS TO OFFSET LOSS OF INSOLATION...LOOKS LIKE GOOD NGT FOR                 
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWEST PWAT PASSING BY AND LGT WNDS NR RDG             
AXIS. NGM MOS FCST MINS COMPARE FVRBLY TO UPSTREAM RDGS THIS MRNG               
AND CURRENT DWPTS. AS RDG PASSES BY TO E...PRES GRADIENT PROGGED TO             
SHARPEN OVR THE W LATE...BUT NOT UNTIL RADIATION INVRN HAS HAD A CHC            
TO FORM. BUT LOWEST MINS WL BE OVR THE INTERIOR E AND CNTRL. AIRMASS            
TOO DRY FOR FOG PER MOS GUIDANCE.                                               
ON TUE...MODELS SHOW H5 HGTS BLDG OVR CWA AHD OF STRG PAC NW SHRTWV             
MOVG E INTO NRN PLAINS. SFC HI PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO THE ERN LKS.               
WITH SE FLOW PROGGED OUT OF THIS HI...THINK ETA IS TOO AGGRESSIVE               
AT INCRSG LLVL MSTR OVR THE CWA. THIS MODEL SHOWS DWPT REACHING 60              
AT IWD BY LATE IN THE DAY. PREFER DRIER AVN FCST WITH DWPT ONLY                 
GOING TO THE LO 50S AT IWD TOWARD 00Z. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS             
OVR THE W DURG LATE AFTN...AND CONFIDENCE INCRSD AS NO MODEL...NOT              
EVEN MOISTER ETA...GENERATES QPF AT IWD THRU 00Z AS PVA AHD OF WEAK             
SHRTWV COMING OUT OF SHRA COMPLEX IN THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTN NOT               
ENUF TO PRODUCE ANY QVECTOR CNVGC UNDER RISING HGTS. GIVEN DRYNESS              
OF ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND LACK OF SFC BNDRY AS INCRSG SSELY FLOW                
SUPPRESSES LK BREEZE OVR THE W UNDER ACYC H85 FLOW...DEEP CNVCTN                
APPEARS UNLIKELY. BUT THERE WL LIKELY BE REMNANT MID CLD MOVG IN                
WITH SHRTWV...SO FCST OF BECMG PSUNNY IN THE AFTN THERE APPEARS ON              
TRACK. FARTHER E...XPCT JUST SOME SCT CU. SINCE AVN HAD BEST 12Z                
INITIALIZATION ON H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM...USED ITS FCST TEMPS TO                   
ESTIMATE MAX TEMPS TMRW. FULL MIXING TO H85 (ADD 14C TO FCST H85                
TEMP AS HI AS 12C AT IWD) YIELDS MAX TEMP ARPCHG 80 AT IWD...WITH               
DOWNSLOPE SSELY FLOW ENHANCING WRMG THERE...TO ARND 75 AT ERY. XPCT             
LWR READINGS DOWNWND OF LK MI WITH SELY FLOW. ALL MODEL MOS FCST                
TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT LWR AS FCST SDNGS SHOW MIXING NOT ACHIEVED                
THRU H85. BUT FCST INCRSG SSELY GRADIENT FLOW SHUD ENHANCE MIXING               
PROCESS...SO HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND ABV LWR MOS                  
FCSTS. CONFIDENCE INCRSD AS SFC TEMPS IN MN RISING QUICKLY THRU THE             
70S THIS AFTN.                                                                  
ATTENTION AFTR TMRW THEN TURNS TO IMPACT OF STRG PAC NW SHRTWV. ETA             
HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH EWD MVMNT OF SYS...NOT SURPRISING                       
CONSIDERING SLUGGISH TROF OVR THE E. AVN FCST HAS BEEN MUCH MORE                
CONSISTENT SHOWING SLOWER/DEEPER ERN TROF...SO FOLLOWING ITS                    
GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. MODELS ALL ADVERTISE RISING HGTS OVR CWA TMRW              
NGT WITH INCRSG PRES GRADIENT OVR THE CWA AS PRES FALLS OVR THE NRN             
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV. ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING PCPN                
INTO CWA AND APPEARS TO DVLP WAD MCS OVR THE ECNTRL. AVN/CNDN/NGM               
RESTRICT QPF TO FAR WRN ZNS...CONSISTENT WITH SHARPENING RDG/DEEP               
LYR QVECTOR DVGC/ H4-2 CNVGC OVR MOST OF CWA DEPICTED BY AVN. SINCE             
ETA IS TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH MSTR/SYS SPEED HAVE RESTRICTED MENTION              
OF POPS TO WRN COUNTIES OF CWA. STEADY WND AND AT LEAST PTCHY MID/HI            
CLDS WL KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIER THAN TNGT...A COMPROMISE BTWN HIER                 
NGM/ETA MOS AND LWR AVN GUIDANCE XCPT OVR THE FAR W...WHERE HIER ETA            
FCST RSNBL FOR SLY FLOW.                                                        
AVN CONTS TO AMPLIFY PATTERN ON WED INTO THU AND IS VERY RELUCTANT              
TO PUSH PCPN E THRU CWA...WITH COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV TO               
THE W NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL THU...WHEN SHRTWV AND DEEPEST MSTR             
PULL NE INTO ONTARIO. TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS                 
FCST...HAVE NOT PUSHED POPS BACK AS FAR AS AVN WOULD SUG. BUT HAVE              
RESTRICTED POPS TO THE WRN HALF OR SO OF CWA THRU THU AT MIDNGT...              
THEN CHCY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALL DAY THU AS BNDRY REMAINS FOCAL PT              
FOR CNVCTN DESPITE BEST DYNAMICS/MSTR LIFTING NE. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS            
LOOK RSNBL.                                                                     
EXTENDED MODELS ALL SHOW A TREND TOWARD LWR HGTS IN THE W AND HIER              
HGTS IN THE E...WITH THE RESULT A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN FOR THE               
CWA AS THE MAIN UPR JET OVR ERN NAMERICA RETREATS N INTO CAN.                   
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT             
ON DAY-TO-DAY WX AS WELL. HI PRES/DRIER AIR IN WAKE OF THU                      
SHRTWV/FNT MOVE IN FOR FRI. OPERATIONAL MRF SHOWS NXT SHRTWV IMPACT             
CWA ON SAT WITH DRIER AIR MOVG IN ON SUN...BUT WL FOLLOW MAJORITY OF            
SLOWER MRF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND OTHR OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GO WITH             
PCPN CHCS LINGERING INTO SUN. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER DRY AIRMASS FOR            
MON WITH UPR JET IN ERN CAN SINKING A BIT FARTHER S AND BCMG MORE               
NWLY. PREVIOUS EXTENDED FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...SO FEW CHGS                 
NECESSARY.                                                                      
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1115 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                     
UPDATE FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS               
TWO WEAK VORT CENTERS SWINGING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY                   
MOVING INTO QUEBEC. ONE OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER LEADING TO AN AREA OF              
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST CLEARING OUT OF THE METRO                   
DETROIT AREA. NEXT VORT UPSTREAM MOVING INTO NORTHERN LOWER AND WILL            
BE OF INTEREST FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS                   
ALREADY APPARENT NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK            
TROUGH CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN FROM CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL            
LAKE HURON. OTHER THAN THE MORNING CONVECTION...EARLY VISIBLE                   
SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.             
12Z RUC/ETA DROP THE NORTHERN VORT INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING...WITH             
A WEAK FRONT/WAVE AT THE SURFACE. GENERALLY A WEAK GRADIENT BUT WITH            
BOTH RUC/ETA DEPICTING SOME 925MB CONVERGENCE INTO THE EVENING.                 
INSTABILITY WILL BE A QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH -23C COLD POOL            
AT 500MB SHIFTING EAST WITH WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING. HOWEVER                   
850-500MB LAPSE RATES STILL NEAR 7C/KM. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S              
POOLING ALONG THE TROUGH AFTER MORNING RAIN SHOWERS...WITH                      
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING             
FOR T/TD OF 72/52 WOULD YIELD 2500J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER WITH WARM               
ADVECTION THE GRB SOUNDING WOULD BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE                  
AFTERNOON AIRMASS...AND YIELDS 1300J/KG CAPE WITH SAME INITIAL T/TD.            
UPPER DIVERGENCE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH CWA LOCATED NEAR                
GENERAL LEFT-EXIT OF 60KT 300MB JET. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON CARRIED INTO THE EVENING. CLIMBING              
FREEZING LEVELS WITH THE WARMING COLUMN IN ADDITION TO MARGINAL WIND            
FIELDS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE WEATHER.                          
WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES               
WITH THERMAL THROUGH STILL JUST SHIFTING EAST...EXPECT DECENT CU TO             
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON LEADING TO PARTY SUNNY SKIES.                              
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
BRAVENDER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
930 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITH                
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET.  OAX SOUNDING THIS EVENING WAS NOT               
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT THERE WAS SOMEWHAT OF A MOIST LAYER JUST                
BELOW 850 MB.  MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL                
JET OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE LIMITED                   
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  SOME STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER                 
IN CNTRL IA AS OF 925 PM...BUT EAST OF OUR AREA.  00Z ETA OUTPUT                
DOES GENERATE SOME LGT PCPN OVER THE AREA LATE TNGT INTO TUE                    
MORNING.  NGM IS EVEN MORE AGRESSIVE...OVER SERN NE AND SWRN IA.                
SO...WILL LOWER POPS JUST SLIGHT IN NERN NE AND INCREASE THEM IN                
SERN NE/SWRN IA.  REST OF FCST BASICALLY UNCHANGED.                             
MILLER                                                                          
...                                                                             
310 PM DISCUSSION                                                               
FCST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHCS INTO TUE THEN HOW FAR S AND HOW FAST                
WK FRONTS WL PUSH INTO FCST AREA THU AND AGAIN SUN.                             
SHORT TERM...19Z STLT SHOWED ACCAS CLOUD BAND DROPG SE TWD CWA AHD              
OF A SHORTWV TROF IN NWRLY UPR FLOW...A GOOD INDICATION OF SYNOPTIC             
SCALE LIFT MODELS HAVE BEEN FCSTG FOR SVRL RUNS NOW.  THIS TROF/MAX             
WL BE MOVG TWD A INSTABILITY AXIS THAT RUC FCSTS AT 00Z TO LIE FM SW            
OF LNK INTO NERN NEBR...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAPS TRENDS.               
WOULD EXPECTED TSTMS TO DVLP BFR 06Z AIDED BY MODERATELY STG/INCRSG             
LOW LVL JET.  ONLY DRAWBACKS ARE A NARROW BAND OF DRIER SFC DWPTS               
ARND LNK AND FET S INTO KS AND THE FACT LATEST RUC DOESN'T FCST PCPN            
OVER CWA UNTIL 03Z-06Z TIME PERIOD AND THEN MAINLY EITHER NE OR SW              
OF CWA.  NONETHELESS WL RUN 40-50 PERCENT POPS AREAWIDE...HIGHEST               
S...AND MAY HAVE TO GO CATEGORICAL IF CONVECTION DVLPS BFR                      
PRESSTIME.  LTL CHANGES TO TNGTS LOWS.                                          
WHETHER CONVECTION DVLPS TUE/TUE EVENING WILL DEPEND A LARGE DEGREE             
ON WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CAN KEEP A BNDRY IN THE AREA             
SINCE WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WL CREATE A STGR CAP ACRS THE AREA PER              
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...BOTH AVN AND ETA DO SUGGEST THIS IS                
QUITE PSBL SO WL KEEP TSTM CHCS IN FCST...ALTHO OUTSIDE OF MORNING              
ACTIVITY DOUBTS DO EXIST.  BECAUSE OF THE COOL OUTFLOW FCST BY                  
ETA/AVN TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A LTL.  KEPT SMALL POPS IN TUE EVENING               
MAINLY N THEN DRY TIL LATE AFTN WED NWRN ZONES.  WL BASE WED THRU               
THU FCST BASED ON SLOWER ETA AS FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO PUSH SE                 
UNDER BUILDING UPR RIDGE.  THUS MOST ZONES COULD BE WINDY AND QUITE             
WARM WED AND BOOSTED TEMPS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS ETA                    
ATTM...BUT THIS TREND WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  ALSO CONTD TEMPS A LTL            
ABV AVN MOS ON THU ACRS THE S DUE TO A SLOWER FROPA.                            
DAYS 4-7...AS PER NCEP DISC...AFTER FRONT LIFTS N/DISPTS LATE FRI WL            
GO WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH NEXT FRONT THAT WL TRY TO WORK ITS               
WAY THRU CWA THIS WEEKEND.  THE FRONT WILL BE FIGHTING SWD THRU 500             
MB HGTS IN EXCESS OF 5880 M AS THE SHORTWV DRIVING IT WILL BE                   
WELL TO OUR N.  THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND WITH                
HIGHEST POPS FRI AND LOWER SAT INTO MON.                                        
CHERMOK                                                                         
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
FCST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHCS INTO TUE THEN HOW FAR S AND HOW FAST                
WK FRONTS WL PUSH INTO FCST AREA THU AND AGAIN SUN.                             
SHORT TERM...19Z STLT SHOWED ACCAS CLOUD BAND DROPG SE TWD CWA AHD              
OF A SHORTWV TROF IN NWRLY UPR FLOW...A GOOD INDICATION OF SYNOPTIC             
SCALE LIFT MODELS HAVE BEEN FCSTG FOR SVRL RUNS NOW.  THIS TROF/MAX             
WL BE MOVG TWD A INSTABILITY AXIS THAT RUC FCSTS AT 00Z TO LIE FM SW            
OF LNK INTO NERN NEBR...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAPS TRENDS.               
WOULD EXPECTED TSTMS TO DVLP BFR 06Z AIDED BY MODERATELY STG/INCRSG             
LOW LVL JET.  ONLY DRAWBACKS ARE A NARROW BAND OF DRIER SFC DWPTS               
ARND LNK AND FET S INTO KS AND THE FACT LATEST RUC DOESN'T FCST PCPN            
OVER CWA UNTIL 03Z-06Z TIME PERIOD AND THEN MAINLY EITHER NE OR SW              
OF CWA.  NONETHELESS WL RUN 40-50 PERCENT POPS AREAWIDE...HIGHEST               
S...AND MAY HAVE TO GO CATEGORICAL IF CONVECTION DVLPS BFR                      
PRESSTIME.  LTL CHANGES TO TNGTS LOWS.                                          
WHETHER CONVECTION DVLPS TUE/TUE EVENING WILL DEPEND A LARGE DEGREE             
ON WHETHER OR NOT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CAN KEEP A BNDRY IN THE AREA             
SINCE WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WL CREATE A STGR CAP ACRS THE AREA PER              
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...BOTH AVN AND ETA DO SUGGEST THIS IS                
QUITE PSBL SO WL KEEP TSTM CHCS IN FCST...ALTHO OUTSIDE OF MORNING              
ACTIVITY DOUBTS DO EXIST.  BECAUSE OF THE COOL OUTFLOW FCST BY                  
ETA/AVN TRIMMED BACK HIGHS A LTL.  KEPT SMALL POPS IN TUE EVENING               
MAINLY N THEN DRY TIL LATE AFTN WED NWRN ZONES.  WL BASE WED THRU               
THU FCST BASED ON SLOWER ETA AS FRONT WILL BE TRYING TO PUSH SE                 
UNDER BUILDING UPR RIDGE.  THUS MOST ZONES COULD BE WINDY AND QUITE             
WARM WED AND BOOSTED TEMPS.  DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS ETA                    
ATTM...BUT THIS TREND WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  ALSO CONTD TEMPS A LTL            
ABV AVN MOS ON THU ACRS THE S DUE TO A SLOWER FROPA.                            
DAYS 4-7...AS PER NCEP DISC...AFTER FRONT LIFTS N/DISPTS LATE FRI WL            
GO WITH A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH NEXT FRONT THAT WL TRY TO WORK ITS               
WAY THRU CWA THIS WEEKEND.  THE FRONT WILL BE FIGHTING SWD THRU 500             
MB HGTS IN EXCESS OF 5880 M AS THE SHORTWV DRIVING IT WILL BE                   
WELL TO OUR N.  THUS WILL RAISE HIGHS SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND WITH                
HIGHEST POPS FRI AND LOWER SAT INTO MON.                                        
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
CHERMOK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
930 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
WILL MAKE MINOR CHGS TO CURRENT FCST. WILL LWR POPS ACRS THE AREA TO            
20% AND MENTION SHRA ONLY. RUC INDICATES WK H5 VORT MOVG INTO RGN               
OVERNIGHT FM THE SW WITH SOME OMEGA AFT 06Z. OTRW LGT WINDS...MOCLDY            
SKIES...AND MINS TNGT FM THE UPR 60S TO THE LWR 70S.                            
MARINE...MINOR CHGS TO WS AND WD OVERNIGHT. SLY WINDS 10 KT OR LESS             
AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.                                                          
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
JAC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
835 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
CONVECTION STILL STRUGGLING TO GET STARTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE              
CWA. LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE             
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT BEST MID/UPR             
LVL FORCING STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. SOME            
ACTIVITY IN NODAK...BUT THIS APPEARS RATHER BENIGN. BETTER SHORT                
WAVE SITUATED IN EASTERN MT...WHERE STRONGER TSTMS ARE. AS THIS                 
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT SOME                
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. RUC STILL SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG LLJ                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THIS ALSO IS AREA OF                
BEST LOW LVL THETA E. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE             
CWA...BUT THINK ERN PORTIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE LATER TONIGHT.                
HAVE UPDATED TO TWEAK THE WINDS OUT WEST AS SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED                
HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.                                             
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
FAUCETTE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
903 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                      
CURRENTLY, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MID STATE, WITH RIDGE              
AXIS ABOUT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AREN'T COOLING AS              
MUCH AS EXPECTED SO HAVE AMENDED ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO RAISE                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS EVERYWHERE BUT THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. USING THE                   
1000-925 MB THICKNESS EQUATION ON 12Z ETA AND 00Z RUC GIVES AN                  
OVERNIGHT LOW OF 63 AT BNA.                                                     
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY, BUT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WE              
SHOULD SEE SOME LOW-LEVEL WARMING TOMORROW WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY                
FLOW ON THE WAY.                                                                
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
ROSE                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1101 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2002                                                     
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE MOSTLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST           
PERIOD.                                                                         
STORM SYS TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...AS A HI             
PRESS RIDGE BUILDS ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. FEW SPOKES OF VORTICITY           
TO SWING UP ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW TODAY.                                      
09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE AROUND 60F TO THE M70S TODAY WITH W-SW SFC            
WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 65-75F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST            
PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT OBS. BEST MID-LVL             
(AND LOW-LVL) MSTR TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES TODAY AND              
TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE TO AFFECT THE FA THIS                
AFTERNOON. MODEL DATA SHOWING PW VALUES TO BE BLO AN INCH ACRS THE FA           
TODAY...AND 2 FSL GPS IPW SITES IN NH/NY INDICATING IPW VALUES OF               
0.8-1" ATTM. RUC SHOWS PCPN COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TODAY...           
WITH AOB 0.25" OF QPF EXPECTED. NOT MUCH PCPN COVERAGE AT ALL IN                
RADAR DATA ATTM...BUT PCPN EXPECTED TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON WHEN               
DYNAMIX START TO AFFECT THE FA. WILL HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACRS NRN             
TIER ZONES AND CHC POPS ACRS SRN VT. CHC POPS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD            
IDEA FOR TONITE.                                                                
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE               
RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO             
BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONITE. NOTED SPC GEN TSTM                 
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTING THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. CAPES TO BE                       
200-800 J/KG ACRS THE FA TODAY. ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST              
MODERATELY SHEARED ACRS THE FA TODAY...WITH WET-BULB ZERO HTS EVEN              
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY (5.5-6.0 KFT). DAMAGING WIND PARAMETERS APPEAR             
TO BE MARGINAL WITH AT LEAST SOME MORE MID-LVL DRYING ACRS THE FA               
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...BUT LOWER PW VALUES. WILL LEAVE CHC OF TSRA IN           
THE ZONES FOR TODAY WITH NO ENHANCED WORDING.                                   
HYDRO-WISE...QPE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AOB 0.25"            
(WITH SOME LOCALLY HIR AMTS IN ANY +SHRA/TSRA YESTERDAY). 1-3 HR FFG            
VALUES OF 1-2" NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEEDED TODAY OR TONITE.                     
WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP ASAP.                                  
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
CURRENT...SFC ANLYS/METARS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS               
APPEARS TO HAVE MIGRATED NORTH TO NEAR THE LAT OF LAKE OKEE. KMLB               
88D SHOWS THE ERSTWHILE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WHICH HAD BEEN MOVING                
ACROSS THE STATE HAS DEGENERATED INTO PATCHY LIGHT DEBRIS RAIN WITH             
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS NOTED ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY ATTM. WIDESPREAD              
MID/UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NOTED ON 3.9UM IR...THOUGH A BIT              
FARTHER NORTH (N OF KAPF-KVRB LINE) THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. WATER             
VAPOR/RUC UPR STRMLINE VORT ANLYS SHOW UPSTREAM VORT AXIS OVER THE              
CENTRAL GOMEX CROSSING 90W WITH CENTERS NEAR 29N AND 25N. METARS                
TRACE OUT A WEAK 1010MB LOW OVER THE GOMEX SOUTH OF KMSY. 00Z RAOBS             
INDICATED RELATIVELY DRIER AIR ACROSS SOUTH FL/KEYS (PWATS ~1.7")               
COMPARED TO THE NRN/CTRL PENIN (1.9"-2.1"). H50 TEMPS PROGGED TO                
REMAIN SIMILAR TO 00Z...-9C OVER ECFL AND 1C COOLER N/WARMER S...               
SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG MESO BOUNDARIES.                  
TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS' SLOW NWD TREK...             
WHILST THE DLM ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS NWD. THIS MEANS               
THAT THE SFC FLOW WILL BACK SOME (SOUTH RATHER THAN SW) TODAY WHILE             
AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE GOMEX TROUGH WILL SHEAR NNE RATHER THAN                 
PROGRESS E OR NE. THUS MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY WILL FOCUS MORE ACROSS             
NORTH FL RATHER THAN FARTHER SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS...H25 JTSTRK /DIVG             
CONTRIBUTIONS TO UVM REMAIN STRONG...HENCE THE SYNOPTIC PROFILE WILL            
REMAIN ASCENDANT. THEREFORE...FCST FOR ABOVE CLIMO POPS LOOKS FINE.             
SLIGHT DRYING INDICATED BY THE AVN ALONG THE SE COAST APPEARS IN                
LINE WITH RAOBS. ECSB SHOULD BE PRETTY ACTIVE IN AND OF ITSELF WHILE            
STEERING LAYER FLOW TRIES TO KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING BACK TWD THE COAST            
IN SPITE OF THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE.                           
WED/THU...BUILDING RIDGE WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW BACKING AND BECOMING              
MORE ANTICYCLONIC. WITH INCREASING S-SE COMP AT ALL LEVELS...HIGHER             
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE INTERIOR/WRN PENIN. HOWEVER...               
ALL THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE (ESP THE AVN) SHOWS AN EASTERLY TWAVE              
APPROACHING 80W LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH              
AMPLITUDE TO INCREASE MEAN PWATS BACK UP BY A FEW TENTHS ACROSS THE             
SOUTH...WHERE DRYING WAS MOST PRONOUNCED TO BEGIN WITH. PLAN TO                 
QUALITATIVELY FAVOR THE AVN (THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY) AND NUDGE POPS              
BACK UP TO 50 FOR THU...THOUGH IF IT WERE TO VERIFY 100%...IT WOULD             
MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE NOCTURNE FOR MUCH OF E/SE FL WED NIGHT AND HIGHER            
POPS (LIKELY?) THU...ESP DURING THE MORNING.                                    
FRI-MON...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TAKES UP RESIDENCE NORTH OF FLORIDA              
WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER ESE FLOW BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS             
ECFL. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A NIGHTTIME/MORNING CONVECTIVE REGIME                
ALONG THE COAST...AND A LATE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON REGIME OVER THE                
INTERIOR.                                                                       
MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. BENIGN CONDITIONS AT 41009 W/ SEAS DOWN TO              
~1FT AND WINDS BLO 10KT. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG LTG STORMS           
ESP NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH             
THE PERIOD AS MENTIONED EARLIER...BUT WILL STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.               
COORD W/ MIA.                                                                   
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
DAB TB 086/072 088/073 085 73435                                                
MCO TB 087/072 090/072 087 73435                                                
MLB TB 086/074 087/075 085 63445    60=                                         
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
246 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN PER CURRENT              
WATER VAPOR LOOP...WITH THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WELL EAST OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH             
SHARP UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS PROVIDING            
PLENTY OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT                 
LAKES. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TO 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NE                
ILLINOIS AND NRN INDIANA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE              
HAS BEEN PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM            
SE WISCONSIN TO NE OHIO. MID LEVEL DRYING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR              
LOOP MAY BE ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THIS FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY. BOTH THE RUC AND MESO ETA KEEP THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND WEAKEN            
IT CONSIDERABLY. THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT                  
THIS...THUS I DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL                  
CLOUDS TO GRAZE THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.                             
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND                       
CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION OVER              
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN             
LAKES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDWEEK...WITH RETURN             
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGING MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO                 
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                                                             
FOR TODAY...500MB TEMPS SLOWLY WARM AS THE UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST              
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO DECREASE                
FROM AROUND 7C/KM THIS MORNING TO AROUND 6C/KM BY LATE AFTERNOON.               
WITH THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD AND MODEL SOUNDINGS                    
DEVELOPING A CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 700MB THIS AFTERNOON...A DRY               
FORECAST STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. SFC TO 850MB LAPSE RATES REMAIN                 
QUITE STEEP...ENOUGH TO PROVIDE SOME AFTERNOON CU POTENTIAL. LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP A MOSTLY               
SUNNY FORECAST. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON MIXING HEIGHTS ON UPSTREAM                  
SOUNDINGS WERE GENERALLY AROUND 4K FT. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING TO THIS LEVEL SHOULD PROVIDE HIGHS IN THE               
MID 70S. A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO                     
DEVELOP...KEEPING LOCATIONS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SEVERAL DEGREES                
COOLER.                                                                         
TONIGHT...THE ETA SHOWS SOME THETA-E ADVECTION FROM 850-700MB. WITH             
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIGHT ON TOP OF LOWER MICHIGAN THOUGH...I DO              
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. AN            
INCREASING GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING AS              
LOW AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHT. ETA SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW A                 
20-25KT WIND MAX DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AROUND 1K FT. LOOKING AT THE              
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...THIS DOES NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE SO I                  
EXPECT WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.                                          
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE              
ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WITH HEIGHTS             
AT 500MB ON THE RISE. THIS WILL SPELL A WARMING TREND. GUIDANCE                 
HIGHS OF LOW-MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID-UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY                 
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE PROGS. WITH ALL OF THE             
UPPER SUPPORT STILL WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL MAINTAIN            
A DRY FCST.                                                                     
THE LATEST CANADIAN RUN KEEPS AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH             
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE AVN BRINGS IT INTO THE               
NORTHERN COUNTIES (TRENDING FARTHER NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN).               
GIVEN THE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE               
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...I LIKE THE CANADIAN IDEA OF KEEPING THE FRONT            
NORTH. AT THIS POINT...I WILL LEAVE POPS IN FOR ALL AREAS ON FRIDAY             
AND LET AN ADDITIONAL MODEL RUN DECIDE IF POPS NEED TO BE REMOVED               
FROM AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                                            
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
316 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN LAKE ERIE              
EARLY THIS MORNING IS STILL GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED              
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PA. AS THE SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST ACROSS           
THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS MORNING IT MAY SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR            
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE REST OF THE FA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.                       
THE RUC SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE APPROACHING WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD               
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL           
BE EAST OF OUR FA...SO I WILL NOT MENTION ANY AFTERNOON                         
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THAT THE STUBBORN LOW THAT BROUGHT                    
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA THE PAST THREE DAYS            
WILL FINALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. THE WEAK RIDGE THAT IS                 
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING INCREASING SUNSHINE THE NEXT              
THREE DAYS ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE THAT            
IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE SEASON.                                                
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD             
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE.                                
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
TJP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1104 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES...WITH DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. ONE                 
LINGERING VORT CENTRAL NEAR SAGINAW BAY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH.             
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH             
A WEAK HIGH OVER LAKE HURON. VISIBLE SATELLITE/METARS INDICATE A                
BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OHIO NEAR THE               
WEAK BOUNDARY...ACC ON SATELLITE AND AS REPORTED BY OBSERVERS AT                
LAN/MBS/YQG/YZR.                                                                
COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PULL EAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD WITH THE                      
APPROACHING RIDGE...WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING 500MB/700MB TEMPERATURES            
CLIMBING 4C/3C RESPECTIVELY. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES STILL UP NEAR                
6.5C/KM...DESPITE CAP DEVELOPING NEAR 700MB...WHICH DROPS 700-500MB             
LAPSE RATES TO 5C/KM. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM GRB LOOKS                          
REPRESENTATIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. MODIFIED FOR T/TD OF            
75/52 YIELDS A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...NOT MUCH COMPARED TO             
THE 1500 J/KG FROM A MODIFIED DTX SOUNDING. DESPITE THE SCATTERED               
NATURE OF THE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...RUC/ETA STILL                
POINTING TO 700MB RH OVER 70 PERCENT. CU EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE AND             
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.              
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...              
WHICH MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. RUC/ETA INDICATE 925MB                
CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ETA-6            
AND ETA-XX BOTH PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEND             
TO THINK THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT            
IS ONGOING. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH               
WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PRECIP CHANCES.                                 
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
BRAVENDER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE                                          
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
UPDATE TO UP POPS FROM I-80 SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE MOVING               
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. RUC PROPAGATES FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA              
AND BLOWS UP CONVECTION QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TS SHOULD              
BE GARDEN VARIETY AS FCST SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT SEVERE.                       
INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-80 AS WELL. KNOCKED DOWN TEMPS A BIT                
WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                       
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
DIRIENZO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY                                             
1000 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
SHORT WAVE/CONVECTION MOVG EAST OF CWFA ATTM. WK SFC TROF EXTENDS               
N-S ACRS CNTRL DAKOTAS. FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM                         
CHANCES...AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM BCMG SVR.                                     
BEST CAPE TDY ACRS SCNTRL ZONES. HOWEVER...FCST RUC SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE AFTN CIN AOA 50J/KG.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER LVL                           
FORCING...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD TSTMS. LESS CAPPING IN PLACE                
ACRS REMAINDER OF ZONES...BUT MINIMAL CAPE AND LACK OF FORCING TO               
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR ANY                  
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTN MAY ROTATE.                                    
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS REMAIN THIS EVE/TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/N OF             
I-90 AS POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.                                           
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING                   
WORDING.                                                                        
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE               
VA/MD ZONES AS TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH            
THE REGION. CURRENTLY...THIS SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING THROUGH OH/PA PER            
THE LATEST WV/IR STLT LOOPS. WEAK FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE                   
(DPVA/QS CONVERGENCE)...ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL THERMAL EFFECTS                  
(MOUNTAIN/MARINE LAYER STABILITY OR MESO-HIGHS W AND E WITH                     
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IN BTWN) WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO                
LIFT BACK N INTO THE VA COASTAL PLAIN. MARGINAL INSTBY AND OVERALL              
DRY AIRMASS/LOWER INSTBY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED OVER VA/MD               
THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20% POPS. CAPES IN THIS                
REGION PER MODIFIED KWAL/KLWX SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN              
1000-1500 J/KG.                                                                 
WILL ALSO KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES (30%) OVER NE N CAROLINA...              
GIVEN INCREASED 850-500 MB LIFT FROM A SRN STREAM VORT LOBE LIFTING             
INTO THE CAROLINAS (WHICH OF THE MODELS THE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A               
BETTER HANDLE ON). INSTBY POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE A             
LITTLE HIGHER GIVEN THE MORE LOW-MID LEVEL MSTR AVAILABILITY                    
(K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S). MODIFIED KMHX SOUNDING FOR AN 82/67             
TEMP/DWPT REGIME YIELDS CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -6C.               
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THOUGH WILL LIMITED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL               
CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON SURFACE            
BASED HEATING...WHILE LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE                 
MICROBURST POTENTIAL (WBZ HEIGHTS ~11.5 KFT) AS WELL AS MID LEVEL               
LAPSE RATES (5.5 C/KM OR LESS).                                                 
MARINE FCST...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.                                            
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
HURLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED):  AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH            
HAPPENING UPSTREAM...NEAREST LTG IS OVR SRN PA.  SAT PIX SHOW CU                
FIELD INCRSG INVOF CATSKILLS AND NRN PA...AND THIS IS AREA TO WATCH             
THRU LATE AFTN FOR ANY CNVTCV DVLPMNT.  BOTH ETA/RUC CONT PREV                  
TRENDS WITH INCRSG TT (L50S)...TQ (L20S) AND CAPE (500-1000) BUT K              
INDICES ARE LWR THAN YDA.  15Z RUC HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FM ITS               
ERLR FCSTS BUT STILL SHOWS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CT AND MERR VLYS               
THRU ERLY EVE.  AM GOING TO MAKE FINAL DECISION FOR EVE ACTVTY BASED            
UPON 18Z RUC...BUT AM PLANNING TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME MNTN OF PCPN              
ACRS INTERIOR ZNS ERLY.                                                         
MDLS ARE NOW MORE INSISTENT ON PCPN WED...AND IN FACT POTL FOR CNVTCN           
IS GREATER THAN TDA ON BOTH AVN/ETA.  SOME TIMING DIFFS BTWN MDLS               
WITH AVN BRINGING IN PCPN DURG MRNG...ETA HOLDG OFF TIL AFTN.  ALTHO            
GRAD IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT WEAK BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVR SRN NEW            
ENG WHICH SHUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CNVTCN...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC              
LIFT.  CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHWRS ERLY (SPCLY W) PER AVN SO WL BRING             
CHC POPS IN WED MRNG W AND BY AFTN E.  XPCT TO SEE MOST OF ACTVTY FM            
AFTN INTO EVE WITH POTL FOR ISOLD SVR AS WET BULB ZERO REMAINS 7-8KFT           
WITH EL 20-25KFT.                                                               
NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST.                                                    
MID TERM (WED NGT-SAT):  PATTN FINALLY QUIETS DOWN AS WEAK SFC BNDRY            
WASHES OUT AND SFC HI OFF COAST DOMINATES.  LL FLO GRDLY TURNS SW               
BY FRI WHICH WL FINALLY GIVE US THE LONG-AWAITED WARMUP.  NXT CDFNT             
COMING OUT OF GRTLKS FRI AFTN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO SAT...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MNTN OF PCPN TIL SAT AFTN OR SAT NGT.                
RESTRICTED POPS TO RUFFLY MASS PIKE NWD WHERE BETTER LL CONV AND                
UPR SUPPORT PROGGED.                                                            
LONG TERM (SUN-TUE):  STAYING CLOSE TO 00Z/18 OPAVN WHICH KEEPS                 
CLOSED UPR LO FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ITS EFFECTS AWAY FM FA...THERE IS              
ALSO GOOD AGRMNT AMONG MAJORITY OF MED RANGE MDLS WITH THIS FEATURE.            
STG UPR RDG CENTERED OVR WV SUN MRNG SLWLY BLDS S BY DAY 7...PUTTING            
NERN STATES ON TOP OF RDG AND ALLOWING NRN STREAM TO DOMINATE.                  
PLANNING ON CARRYING CHC POPS SUN NGT AS CDFNT EXITS COAST...THEN               
AGAIN MON NGT/TUE AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS AND WMFNT BECOMES                
QSTNRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLO.  MEX TMPS                
CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT CUT BACK A FEW DEGS GIVEN XPCTD CLD CVR.            
BYD DAY 7...AVN KEEPS BNDRY IN PLACE MEANING AT LEAST DIURNAL                   
CNVTCN LOOKS PROBABLE THRU MUCH OF NXT WEEK...BEFORE FNT BACKDOORS              
LATE IN WEEK WITH LARGE SFC HI OVR MARITIMES.                                   
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW A RDG OVR THE GRT LKS (12            
HR H3 HGT RISES AOA 100M WITH SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8) BTWN A                  
FILLING TROF OVR THE E AND A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU THE PAC             
NW. THIS SHRTWV ACCOMPANIED BY 100KT H3 JET MAX AND 12 HR H3 HGT                
FALLS AOA 150M. SFC HI PRES/DRY AIR (12Z PWAT ARND 0.60 INCH AT                 
INL/GRB) UNDER THE UPR RDG BRINGING A TRANQUIL WX DAY TO CWA...WITH             
DRY SELY TRAJECTORIES NOTED ACRS THE NW GRT LKS OUT OF HI CENTER OVR            
LK HURON. BUT HIGHER MSTR LURKING TO THE SW...WITH PWATS AOA 1 INCH             
FM BIS TO MPX. TSRA NOTED IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS...THE STRONGEST ONE             
IN MT AND ANOTHER IN ND...SHOOTING OUT OF MAIN TROF IN THE PAC NW AS            
THEY INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTER AIR.                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE            
OF CNVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW SHRTWV.                                        
PRES GRADIENT PROGGED TO SHARPEN TNGT AS ADVANCING SHRTWVS CAUSES               
LWRG PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MORE TENACIOUS RDG HANGS IN OVR              
THE NE CONUS UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE LKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS                
MOVG IN FM THE W. LEADING SMLR SCALE SHRTWVS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE NE            
INTO CAN IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HTS FARTHER W AND BLDG RDG IN THE               
LKS...WITH MODELS INDICATING NO IMPACT FM THESE ADVANCE SHRTWVS ON              
WX OVR CWA. FCST LLVL WNDS/TRAJECTORIES REMAIN OUT OF THE SSE THRU              
12Z WED...SO THINK DRY AIR WL HOLD ITS GROUND TNGT UNDER RISING                 
HGTS. SINCE NO MODEL...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ETA AT MOISTENING               
THE LLVLS...GENERATES QPF IN THE CWA TNGT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE                
MENTION OF PCPN ACRS THE FAR W. BEST CHCS FOR TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE                
MUCH FARTHER S CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT IN NE IA/SE MN/SW WI...WHICH              
WOULD ACT TO INTERCEPT MSTR FLOWING TOWARD CWA. DEBRIS CLD FM                   
UPSTREAM CNVCTN WL IMPACT WI BORDER/WRN ZNS...BUT SKIES WL BE MCLR              
FARTHER E. ALTHOUGH FLOW OF DRIER AIR WL CONT IN THE LLVLS...INCRSG             
WNDS WL HOLD TEMPS MUCH HIER THAN LAST NGT MINS. THE IMPACT WL BE               
GREATEST ACRS THE W...WHERE THE PRES GRADEINT WL BE SHARPER ALL NGT             
(ETA DEPICTS 45KT WND AS LO AS 2K FT AGL AT IWD OVRNGT) AND PWAT/UPR            
LVL MSTR INCRSES EARLIER. MOS MINS LOOK RSNBL...BUT WL TEND TO                  
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES OVR THE E SINCE DWPTS ARE SO LO (37 AT SAW            
AT 19Z).                                                                        
AVN BRUSHES SRN TIER ZNS WITH REMNANT PCPN FM MCS IT DVLPS ALG WARM             
FNT TO THE S TNGT...BUT THINK AVN SUFFERING FM USUAL CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK PROBLEM AND TOO STRG WITH SHRTWV/H4-2 DVGC IT PROGS TO MOVE            
ACRS NRN WI/SRN TIER CWA ON WED MRNG. BUT DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN WL BE            
MOST PREVALENT ACRS THE S AND W. ALTHOUGH ETA/NGM GENERATE QPF OVR              
THE WRN HALF OF CWA IN THE AFTN...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY BNDRY UNDER             
ACYC H85 FLOW/SUPPRESSED LK BREEZES...RISING H5 HGTS/TEMPS (TO -8C              
AT IWD BY 18Z) AND WITH MORE OF A DUE S SFC FLOW...THINK DAY WL BE              
DRY PER CNDN MODEL FCST...SO POPS UNDER GUIDANCE FCST. ETA AS USUAL             
APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING SFC DWPT TOWARD 67 AT IWD BY                  
AFTN...ITS MODIFIED SDNG FOR TD OF 60 PER AVN GUIDANCE AT 18Z SHOWS             
CAPE/CIN DCRSG FM 670/-30 J/KG TO 150/-30 J/KG EVEN FOR TEMP UP TO              
80. DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN TO THE SW WL LIMIT INSOLATION A BIT AND                
HOLD DOWN MAX TEMP/CAPE AS WELL. AVN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS             
TOO INFLUENCED BY ITS FCST MRNG CNVCTN/THICKER DEBRIS CLD. FWC                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. XPCT BREEZY CONDITIONS AS INSOLATION             
MIXES STRG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SFC.                                            
TMRW NGT...MAIN SHRTWV LIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO ON WRN FLANK OF UPR RDG            
AXIS OVR ERN LKS...DRAGGING SFC FNT INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. ALL BUT            
CNDN MODEL GENERATE SOME QPF OVR CWA WED NGT...ALBEIT LGT. THINK                
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...FCST PWATS OVR 1.5 INCH...AND                  
ARRIVAL OF SFC BNDRY WARRANTS INCLUSION OF POPS EVERYWHERE...HIEST              
OVR THE FAR W CLOSEST TO BNDRY. BUT LIFTING OF SHRTWV/DEEPEST MSTR              
INTO CAN WITH NEGLIGIBLE FALL OF H5 HGT/TEMP OVR CWA WOULD SUG CHCY             
POPS AND NO HIER. SPC OUTLOOK HAS WRN ZNS IN SLGT RISK AREA...BUT               
LINGERING HI MID LVL TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF STRG DYNAMICS A MAJOR                  
LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE STRG H85 WNDS. TGT GRADIENT SWLY FLOW/MIXING            
AND HIER PWAT INDICATE MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO HIER NGM/ETA MOS GUIDANCE            
IN ORDER.                                                                       
WEAKENING SFC FNT WITH LOSS OF UPR DYNAMICS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIMP              
ACRS CWA ON THU AS WSWLY UPR FLOW BCMS MORE PARALLEL TO BNDRY ON WRN            
PERIPHERY OF RDG. AVN THE SLOWEST MODEL TO PUSH DRYING INTO THE W ON            
THU WITH WHAT APPEARS AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SHRTWV RIDES NE ALG                
BNDRY AND INVIGORATES QPF ALG BNDRY. WL TEND TOWARD THE MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE DRYING OF THE ETA GIVEN THE AVN'S PROBLEM WITH CONVECTIVE            
FEEDBACK...THE CNDN MODEL APPEARS RSNBL AS A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO               
THE ETA. WL DRY OUT THE W THU AFTN...BUT KEEP POPS ALL THU NGT ACRS             
THE E. THEN DRY EVERYWHERE ON FRI WITH SFC HI FCST TO BLD OVR THE NW            
GRT LKS BEHIND DISSOLVING FNT.                                                  
EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE TREND TOWARD MORE SUMMERLIKE                  
PATTERN WITH WELL ABV NORMAL H5 HGTS FCST ACRS ESPECIALLY ERN                   
NAMERICA. WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACRS               
CAN AND TO N OF MEAN RDG/WARMEST AIR IN THE CNTRL CONUS...SOME                  
ACTIVE TSRA WX PSBL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF               
SHRTWV PASSING TO N ON SAT...SO FCST SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON THAT DAY                 
LOOKS ON TARGET. ECMWF/UKMET LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING/BLDG              
HI PRES OVR THE NW LKS ON SUN...BUT OPERATIONAL MRF/CNDN DEPICT A               
BNDRY IN VCNTY ALL DAY WITH SLOWER SHRTWV PROGRESSION. MRF/CNDN                 
ENSEMBLES OFFER LTL RESOLUTION... SO WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST                     
SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON SUN. OPERATIONAL MRF KEEPS BNDRY ARND ON MON...               
BUT SINCE MAJORITY OF MRF/CNDN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF HINT AT               
DRYING AND COOLING ON MON...WL CONT DRY FCST THEN. OUTLOOK FOR TUE              
IS UNCLEAR...BUT WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF ACTIVE UPR JET TO THE N...            
WL GO WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN. TEMPS THRU EXTENDED PD GENERALLY AOA             
MOS FCST...XCPT FOR MON WHEN TEMPS GENERALLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE.                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE RMNS CONVECTION CHCS/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TNGT...              
MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN HOW FAR S CDFNT WILL PUSH LATE WED                   
NGT/THU.  MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FNTL PSN INTO WED AFTN AND A            
BLEND WAS USED.  AVN AND ETA CONTD THEIR RESPECTIVE TRENDS W/FRONT              
ON THU.  AVN CONTD TO PUSH IT S THRU FCST AREA WHILE ETA MOVED IT               
TWD SRN ZONES THEN STALLED IT OR EVEN MOVED IT N A LTL.  SINCE FNT              
WL BE MOVG S INTO RISING 500 MB HGTS...IN FACT ETA/AVN BOTH BUILD               
5940 M HGT INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z FRI...WL LEAN A LTL MORE TWD ETA               
THU.                                                                            
SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE SITUATION CONTS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND THE              
QUESTION RMNS WHETHER CAP WL BREAK IN FCST AREA.  FCST SOUNDING FM              
ETA BUFKIT SHOWED CAP ERODING AT OFK AND OMA 19Z-21Z.  WARMING MID              
LVL TEMPS THEN BROUGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BACK TO OMA BY 00Z                 
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASED FAST ENOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS TO KEEP LTL             
OR NO CIN AT OFK.  BASED ON THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS NRN            
ZONES.  HOWEVER...LATEST LAPS SHOWED A MUCH HIGHER CIN AT 19Z THAN              
12Z ETA OR EVEN THE LATEST RUC FCST.  AND LATEST RUC DIDN'T LOWER               
CIN BLO 40 J/KG UNTIL 00Z-03Z TIME PD BUT THEN DVLPD ITS PCPN N OF              
FCST AREA.  WILL STILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES BECAUSE OF                
THESE TRENDS...BUT WL NOT GO IN LIKELY CAT OR MENTION SVR UNLESS                
CONVECTION WOULD DVLP BFR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.  ALTHO IF STORMS DO               
OCCUR IN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR              
SVR STORMS.  CAP IS FCST TO RMN AT LNK AND THEN EVEN BUILDS TWD 04Z             
SO WL LEAVE SERN NEBR ZONES DRY.  PREV FCST LOWS LOOK GOOD.                     
WINDY AND WARM/HOT CONDS LOOK LIKELY ON WED.  ETA/NGM 850 MB TEMPS              
WOULD EVEN SUPPORT UPR 90S AT LNK AND EVEN OFK IF FNT WOULD HOLD                
OFF.  AVN RMNS THE COOLER MODEL BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SW.              
ACTUALLY ETA MOS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WL ADJ FCST UPWARD TO THESE               
NUMBERS.  FEEL THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION AND LTL CLOUDS AT LEAST              
FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN SO MIXING DOWN 850 MB WINDS SHOULD POSE            
NO PRBLM.  WL MENTION WINDY MOST ZONES...SPCLY SINCE WINDS HAVE EVEN            
REACHED THAT CRITERIA TDA.  WL COUNT ON FRONT REACHING NEAR OFK BY              
LATE AFTN TO CONT AFTN TSTMS CHCS NWRN ZONES.  WL LEAVE ROFA DRY.               
WITH FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO OMA WED NGT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE                   
OUTFLOW...FEEL A BOOST IN POPS IS WARRANTED.  IN FACT WL GO LIKELY              
CATEGORY NWRN ZONES.  EVEN THOUGH FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SERN               
NEBR...WL KEEP SOME MENTION OF STORMS THERE AS A FEW COULD BE                   
GENERATED BY OUTFLOW AHD OF FNT.  THEN ON THU LEANING MORE TWD ETA              
WOULD HOLD THE FRONT NEAR OMAHA.  THUS WL GO MORE WITH ETA MOS S OF             
THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY JUST IN CASE              
FNT DROPS FTHR S THAT EXPECTED.  ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS FAIRLY CLOSE               
NRN ZONES AND WL RAISE TEMPS A LTL TWD THOSE NUMBERS FAR N.                     
BOTH ETA EXTENSION AND AVN LIFT FNT MOSTLY N OF FCST AREA BY FRI                
AFTN.  THUS WL ONLY MENTION MORNING TSTMS N AND RAISE TEMPS A LTL               
ALL AREAS.                                                                      
DAYS 4-7...ON SAT REMOVED SLGT CHC TSTMS AND RAISED TEMPS ALL ZONES             
AS BOTH ECMWF AND AVN FCST UPR RIDGING W/LTL CHC OF PCPN.  BOTH                 
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED SOME WK WAVE PSBLY KNOCKING DOWN UPR HGTS A               
LTL SUN...ALTHO AVN WAS FTHR N...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN WITH SLIGHTLY            
COOLER TEMPS.  MODELS DIVERGED A LTL MON WITH ECMWF HOTTER/DRIER                
THAN AVN WHICH BROUGHT ANOTHER WK FNT THRU.  ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THEN            
TO CHANGE PREV FCST SO LEFT NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ALONE AND CONTD                 
THESE CONDITIONS INTO TUE.                                                      
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
CHERMOK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY                                             
245 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND POSSIBILITY OF            
SVR WX.  UPR LOW MOVG EWD ACRS THE PAC NW ATTM...WITH WATER VAPOR               
DEPICTING JET STREAK ENTERING NRN ROCKIES. BROAD TROF ACRS DAKOTAS              
WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WINDS ACRS THE SD PLAINS FROM EARLY              
MRNG TSTMS.                                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CAP GENERALLY S OF I-90 OVR              
WRN SD...AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS BREAKING THIS EVE. APRCH              
JET STREAK SPARKING MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NWRN ZONES...BUT DO              
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THIS AFTN/EVE AS CAP IS                
RAPIDLY ERODING IN THIS REGION.  APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATER THIS              
EVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AREA...AND STRONG SHEAR/HI LCL'S               
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.  IN A                   
NUTSHELL...EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS NORTH OF I-90              
THIS EVE.                                                                       
SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATER TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AS STRONG CDFNT            
SWEEPS ACRS REGION...ALLOWING CAP TO BE OVERCOME. PCPN SHOULD COME              
TO AN END DURG THE MRNG AS CDFNT/INSTABILITY MOV E.  WILL HAVE TO               
PUT UP WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDS IN THE AM AS NARROW BAND OF             
5-7MB PRES RISES SPREAD ACRS AREA BEHIND CDFNT...ALTHOUGH OPPOSING              
GEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENTS SHOULD KEEP BLO HIGHLIGHT                    
CRITERIA.                                                                       
OTHER THAN A FEW -SHRA WED AHEAD OF UPPER TROF...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY               
THU WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF.  NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE               
THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AVN DEPICTS SEVERAL                   
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. SFC LOW DVLPG ACRS SD ON FRI COULD BRING MORE             
SVR WX TO AREA...AND BEARS WATCHING.                                            
EXTENDED...UNSETTLED PATTERN THRU SUN...THEN DRY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS             
RETURNING REGION TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd