AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                       
PRECIP THROUGH SAT AFTN IS MAIN CONCERN.                                        
SHRTWV RIDGE AXIS RESIDES OVR UPR MI THIS AFTN...WITH VERY SHARP                
SHRTWV SLICING INTO WRN OT. ANOTHER SHRWV IS ALSO NOTED ENTERING MN             
ON THE NOSE OF H5 SPEED MAX. COUPLE OF STRONG JET STREAKS FOUND ON              
12Z RAOBS/LATEST ACARS DATA...WITH ONE FM AB INTO MB AND THE OTHER              
VERY STRONG ONE (145KT) SHIFTING DUE SOUTH FM HUDSON BAY INTO LK                
ERIE. UPR MI IN BTWN AND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER JET. EVEN THOUGH            
PRIMARY SHRTWV IS WELL TO NORTH...A VERY DISTINCT SFC/H85 TROUGH                
RESIDES FM LOW OVR NRN MB SOUTH INTO ERN CO. AN INTENSE/MOIST H85               
JET IS TRANSPORTING H85 T/TD OF OF 20C/14C JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH            
AS FAR NORTH AS SRN SHORES OF LK WINNEPEG IN MB. RIBBON OF MOISTURE             
HOWEVER IS VERY NARROW AS MORNING SOUNDINGS FM GRB/INL ONLY SHOWED              
TD OF 2C/7C. OVR UPR MI STABLE AIR STILL THE CASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE            
RIDGE FM SRN LOWER MI INTO OHIO VALLEY. VIS SAT SHOWS JUST SOME                 
CI/AC OVR WRN 2/3 OF FA WITH LGT SHRA ENTERING WRN FA WITH CU                   
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG TROUGH IN NRN MN (WHERE SFC TD GREATER               
THAN 70F ARE POOLING ATTM).                                                     
TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD FA AND APPROACHES IWD BY 03Z...MQT            
BY 06Z...AND AT ERY BY 09Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN                 
PREVIOUS RUNS AS SHOWN BY DPROG/DT OF NGM/ETA MSLP. IN ABOUT A 200              
MILE RANGE AHEAD OF FRONT SHRA HAVE FORMED IN WAA ZONE OVR ERN MN               
PER ETA 305-310K (H85-H75) ALTHOUGH LGTNG IS SPARSE DUE TO LIMITED              
INSTABILITY AS ONLY 5.5-6.0C/KM LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT FM H85-H5               
PER ETA AND RUC INCREASING THERE IS SOME PRESENT IN NERN MN AS SFC              
DWPTS AND RESULTING INSTABILITY IS CREEPING INTO NRN MN AHEAD OF                
APPROACHING TROUGH. LATEST RUC BRINGS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP ACROSS FA            
(ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV...H85-H5 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND H85-H3              
DIFF DIVERGENCE)...THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP AS PRIMARY             
TROUGH CROSSES BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DEVOTE FOCUS TO            
INITIAL DYNAMIC RIBBON...BUT ETA/AVN DO HINT VERY FAINTLY AT A                  
SECONDARY SHOT OF QPF. THINK THAT WITH SUCH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR                   
OVERHEAD CNTRL/ERN FA TO BEGIN WITH (H85-H7 RH LESS THAN 40 PCT THRU            
00Z) WILL DIMINISH SHRA INTENSITY/COVERAGE. IF A HEAVIER EVENT WAS              
TO OCCUR IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVRNIGHT AS THE MOIST TOUNGUE MENTIONED             
EARLIER MOVES THRU. POPS WILL GO FM LIKELY WEST...TO SCT CNTRL/EAST.            
WAA LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (SI/S NEARING            
-4C BY 06Z) COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH STRONG                 
SHEAR AND VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS A FEW STORMS MIGHT                 
FLIRT WITH SVR POTENTIAL...BUT ATTM BELIEVE THIS WILL BE FARTHER                
UPSTREAM IN AREA OF BETTER INITIAL INSTABILITY.                                 
SATURDAY...BY 12Z FRONT BECOMES FRATURED AS PORTION CLOSEST TO                  
PARENT SHRTWV AND THUS THE SEGMENT THAT IS DRIVEN BY STRONGER WINDS             
ALOFT BEGINS TO OUTRACE THE PORTION FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE            
A FRONT RACING ACROSS CNTRL OT WITH AN INCREASINGLY STATIONARY FNT              
FM CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN UPR MI. MAIN BATCH OF SHRA SHOULD EXIT FA              
SOMETIME AROUND 12Z BUT BOUNDARY THEN LOOKS LIKE IT STALLS ACROSS               
ERN FA. WITH WEAK WIND IN VCTY OF TROUGH LEADING ITSELF TO POSSIBLE             
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND SBCAPES AROUND 300J/KG COULD BE SOME                
SHRA/TSRA TRY TO REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN OVR ERN FA. WL INCLUDE A                 
SMALL POP FOR THIS AND ANY LEFTOVR PRECIP IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE             
TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND 80F INLAND AS H85 TEMPS RISE TO 14C. A BIT            
COOLER ALONG LK SUPERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND             
ANY PRECIP HOLDING DOWN TEMPS A NUDGE IN THE EAST.                              
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS WAA IS               
UNDERWAY. LACK OF COOL AIR IN LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH CU.              
H85 TEMPS SURGE TO 14C-16C BY EVENING...WHICH WILL YIELD TEMPS IN               
THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS ALL OF FA EXCEPT ALONG LK MI WHERE MORE SRLY             
COMPONENT (H95 WINDS FALLING AOB 15KT IN AFTN) WILL PRODUCE COOLER              
TEMPS ALONG LK MI.                                                              
EXTENDED FORECAST...GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY CONTINUES FOR MON-FRI            
FCST PERIOD WITH MON APPEARING TO HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AS WEAK             
SFC TROUGH PER AVN/UKMET/ECMWF/MRF/ETAX (ALTHOUGH PRIMARY DYNAMICS              
REMAIN WELL TO NORTH OVR OT). IN BIG PICTURE...ZONAL PAC FLW                    
CONTINUES INTO WRN LAKES REGION THRU WED...WITH A SLIGHT DIGGING OF             
ERN TROUGH BY THU PUTTING UPR MI INTO MORE NW FLW ALOFT. ATTM                   
OPERATIONAL CANADIAN AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE MOST DIGGY WITH               
TROUGH AS THEY BRING SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES FM SW OT ACROSS              
UPR MI INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MRF AND MRF ENSEMBLES IN ADDITION TO               
ECMWF/AVN/UKMET ALL ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH...SO AS A COMPROMISE                
WILL TRIM TEMPS DOWN (NOW SLATED TO BE RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY) TO             
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBILITY OF MORE NW FLW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE                 
OVRHEAD FOR MID WEEK BUT MRF SHOWS SFC TROUGH CROSSING INTO AREA FRI            
AS SHRTWV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CNTRL CANADA. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES ARE              
NOT AS SHARP WITH SHRTWV TROUGH WHILE MRF MEMBERS SEEM TO FAVOR SAT             
AS BETTER DAY FOR PRECIP WITH SLOWER SOLN THAN OPERATIONAL MODEL                
(WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH SUCH STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE OVR WRN                      
CONUS)...SO ATTM WILL GO WITH DRY FCST TUE THRU FRI.                            
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON                 
ALONG WITH ANY SVR POTENTIAL.                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED TROF OVER ERN NOAM...A RDG                
OVER THE SRN HI PLAINS. TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SHRTWV AND 100 KT H3               
JET INTO SASK..MANITOBA WAS FLATTENING THE RDG AS IT PROGRESSED                 
TOWARD WRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED FROM NRN MB INTO ERN             
DAKOTAS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF LLVL THETA-E RDG EXTENDING FROM THE SRN               
PLAINS INTO THE CTNRL DAKOTAS WITH TD FROM THE MID 40S F OVER UPR MI            
AND NRN WI TO MID 50S OVER ERN MN AND 60S TO NEAR 70 TO THE WEST.               
NODAK MCS...SUPPORTED BY 35-40 KT LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF...HAS              
FALLEN APART AS IT MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR OVER CNTRL MN WITH                
LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWING MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION CONFINED TO FAR              
WRN MN. ONLY -SHRA WERE LEFT OVER NRN MN. IR/VIS LOOP SHOWED                    
THICKENING CLOUDS OVER WRN UPR MI WITH REMNANTS OF CONVECTION AND               
INCREASING 305K-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT...PER 12Z RUC/ETA.                         
WHILE INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROF SHOULD BE                
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME -SHRA INTO UPR MI LATER THIS                             
AFTERNOON...CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT TSRA ARE DWINDLING. EXPECT                  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPR LVL SUPPORT WITH WEAK UPSTREAM SHRTWV                  
FURTHER WEAKENING AS MOVES THROUGH THE RDG. AREA IS ALSO CLOSER TO              
UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF H3 JET OVER SRN CANADA. ANY                    
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ELEVATED AS SIGNIFICANT SBCAPES LAG            
TO THE WEST OVER MN. RUC/ETA FCST SNDGS SUGGEST MUCAPE OF ONLY ABOUT            
400 J/KG (WITH TD NEAR 14C...LIFT FROM 825 MB) INTO WRN UPR MI. LLVL            
AND DEEP LYR SHEAR (45 KT SFC-6KM) REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL SO THAT                  
LIMITED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD STRONGER STORMS                
WEST. HOWEVER...AGREE WITH SPC IN TRIMMING BACK SLGT RISK AREA TO               
AREA SW OF UPR MI...NEAR MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.                            
ACCORDINGLY...TSRA WORDING HAS BEEN DOWNPLAYED. WITH UPSTREAM -SHRA             
CONTINUING TO DWINDLE...AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER THIS              
AFTERNOON...TIMING OF ONSET LOOKS SIMILAR TO GOING FCST...19Z-23Z               
WEST HLF AND AFT 00Z FOR THE EAST PORTION OF THE CWA.                           
WITH THICKENING CLOUDS...GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MAX                
READINGS INTO THE MID 70S F.                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                      
SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND THE               
OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...PRODUCING SKC ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MI            
AND ERN UPR MI. CONVECTION ACROSS MN WHICH DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF              
COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING N/S THRU THE PLAINS IS GRADUALLY                       
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AS NOCTURNAL JET WEAKENS.                              
LATEST RUC HAS BACKED OFF ON ARRIVAL OF HIGH CLOUDS INTO WRN                    
SECTIONS OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND MATCHES             
WELL WITH LATEST IR AND VSBL SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO...CU SCHEME AND             
OBSERVED/MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CU DEVELOPMENT            
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH               
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE FOR ERN UPR AND NW/N CENTRAL LOWER            
MI ZONES. 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...             
AND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.                           
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1050 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                      
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING FASTER THAN EXPECTED WITH NRLY WIND SHIFT               
OVER ENTIRE MHX MAINLAND CWA AT 14Z. LATEST RUC40 AND INCOMING                  
MESOETA CONCUR WITH FRONT S OF AREA BY 00Z. AIR MASS BOUNDARY WITH              
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY LAG OVER SRN SECTIONS INTO AFTN AND               
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS WITH STRONG SHRT WV MOVING THRU FROM                
NW...AND ISOLD SVR STILL POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP 40% POPS FOR SRN ZONES             
BUT DROP POPS N. TEMP FCST OK EXCEPT WILL DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN N               
AND S ON OUTER BANKS WITH NRN SECTIONS COOLER DUE TO N-NE WIND.                 
CWF: WITH FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST                
WIND FCST ACCORDINGLY...MAINLY FOR SRN WATERS. LATEST OBS INDICATE              
SEAS BELOW 5 FEET SO WILL DROP SCEC WORDING FOR NRN WATERS. S FACING            
BEACHES STILL SEEING EFFECTS FROM SVRL DAYS OF SW FLOW AND WILL                 
CONTINUE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.                                      
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
JBM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
928 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                       
00Z ANALYSIS VERIFIES 12Z COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS OF BUILDING                  
MID/UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 850/700 MB THERMAL             
RIDGE HAS ALSO PIVOTED TO BE MORE PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN LAYER WIND             
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THERMAL ADVECTION TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN                    
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. OVERALL...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RULE               
OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY LITTLE OR NO CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST.               
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE/WIND TRENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST               
OKLAHOMA WHERE THE 18Z ETA/LATEST RUC SHOW A 30 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL            
JET FORMING 06-12Z. BELIEVE FORECAST HAS THIS CONCERN WELL ADDRESSED            
SO SEE NO REASON FOR CHANGES.                                                   
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                      
LATEST RUC TIMING SHOWS STRONGEST 850 TO 500 MB DPVA AFFECTING NE               
PART OF FORECAST AREA CIRCA 18Z TO 20Z. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW                  
CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE...BUT LOW LEVEL                     
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO FALL BEHIND SLOWING FRONTAL SYSTEM.            
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ADEQUATELY CAPTURED WITH CHC POPS FOR NE              
SECTIONS. RUC GIVES SOME REASON FOR PAUSE WITH WEAK SFC DEVELOPMENT             
ALONG BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SC UPSTATE. BUT WITH THE BEST            
DYNAMICS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVELY DRY SOUNDINGS...WILL             
KEEP SILENT 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST SW SECTIONS.                                
CLT IS OFF TO A WARM START AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAXES              
AROUND 90. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A NOTCH IN THAT AREA. WILL ADJUST                 
WINDS FOR GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON            
OUTSIDE THE MTNS.                                                               
FCSTID = 33                                                                     
GSP   91  66  93  70 /  20  20  10   0                                          
AND   92  66  93  70 /  20  20  10   0                                          
CLT   90  66  92  69 /  30  30  10   0                                          
HKY   88  62  90  66 /  30  30  10   0                                          
AVL   86  60  88  64 /  20  20  10   0                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
HG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
850 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                       
SFC FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL OF ERN CWA...SO TSRA NO LONGER THREAT.                
WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSRA FROM ERN ZONES. ALSO...DWPTS ARE SLOW TO            
RESPOND TO DRYING. ACTIVITY IN ERN WY/FAR WRN SD HOLDING TOGETHER.              
STILL ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO TURN MORE SE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.              
CURRENT SCT POPS IN KPIR GROUP...AND THEY LOOK WARRANTED. WITH                  
CENTER OF SFC HIGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL                     
ND...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSRA FROM N-CENTRAL SD. ALSO...UPPED                
LOWS FOR KPIR AND KMBG A NOTCH...BASED ON NEW RUC/LAMP AND 18Z                  
MESO-ETA GUIDANCE. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.                                  
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1009 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                      
FNT S OF THE CWA NOW. STILL FAIRLY STRG TROF WL PASS BY OVERHEAD                
THIS AFTN. THIS WL HELP KEEP JUST SOME SC CLDS ARND THE AREA. MAINLY            
OVR THE SE PART OF THE AREA. SKIES WL BE MSTLY SUNNY THRU THE AFTN.             
TEMPS LOOKING AT MRNG SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RUC WOULD INDICATE LOW TO               
MID 80S.                                                                        
THIS LEADS TO A FCST LIKE CURRENT ZONES SO NO CHGS PLANNED                      
FCSTID = 92                                                                     
SBY   84  59  87  65 /   0   0  10  30                                          
OXB   80  60  81  68 /   0   0  10  30                                          
ECG   81  65  85  70 /  10   0  10  10                                          
ORF   81  65  85  70 /  10   0  10  10                                          
PHF   82  61  85  67 /  10   0  10  30                                          
AKQ   85  60  88  68 /  10   0  10  30                                          
RIC   85  60  88  68 /  10   0  10  30                                          
FVX   85  60  88  68 /   0   0  10  30                                          
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
BILLET                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
210 PM MDT FRI JUL 6 2001                                                       
LOOKS LIKE 16 UTC UPDATE OF DAY ONE OUTLOOK HAD RIGHT IDEA CUTTING              
OFF RISK SEVERE ALONG NEB/CO BORDER. SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW STORMS          
FIRING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL CO...THEN LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST. WILL               
TAKE A LONG TIME FOR STORMS TO GET AS FAR EAST AS SNY. COMPUTED LI/S            
LOWEST OVER CENTRAL PANHANDLE ATTM THO. IMPULSE FIRING CO STORMS                
APPARENTLY WHAT MODELS MOVE TO CENTRAL PANHANLE BY 06 UTC/MIDNIGHT              
AND INTENSIFY. 18 UTC RUC40 MISSING NORTH-CENTRAL CO QPF BUT 18 UTC             
MESO-ETA LOOKS BETTER. BELIEVE IT SPREADS IT TOO FAR TO EAST IN FAR             
SOUTH PANHANDLE DURING AFTERNOON HRS. 12 UTC RUN OF NCAR MM5 HAD                
1.0 INCH QPF BULLSEYE EAST OF BFF THIS EVENING. WILL SEE IF THIS                
VERIFIES. NEXT BIG QPF POSSIBILITY NOT UNTIL SAT EVENING...ACCORDING            
TO MODELS. AVN HAS ANOTHER STRONG VORTICITY CENTER OVER CENTRAL                 
PANHANDLE AT 42 HRS/MIDNIGHT SAT. ETA WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY FASTER                
WITH IMPULSE FROM NORTH OF VTN TO SOUTHEAST CORNER WY. AVN HAS 0.63             
INCH BULLSEYE NEAR BFF AT 42 HRS WHILE ETA HAS 0.42 JUST EAST OF                
CYS. POPS DROP TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS MEAN                
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG NORTHERN            
ROCKIES. QUITE WARM TEMPS U.F.N.                                                
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                         
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE               
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD.  MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL                
CONTINUE TO FLOW FROM OLD MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE              
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE           
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FROM DAY TO DAY...AS NO                
MAJOR FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AND THICKNESS                 
VALUES DON'T CHANGE MUCH.  WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND MONSOONAL              
MOISTURE...A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED                  
EACH DAY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                    
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
COX/KMD                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   wy                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
315 AM MDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS MORNING WITH RADAR                   
IMAGERY SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ECHOES.  NOTHING SIGNIFICANT              
YET.. BUT INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY.                
MESOETA MODEL SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTH DURING THE DAY..                 
REACHING THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING.. NEAR KGJT AND MOAB AROUND            
NOON.. THEN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IN           
THE LOWER VALLEYS EXCEEDS ONE INCH WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AT 700 MB           
AROUND 8 G/KG.  SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AREAS OF               
WETTING RAINS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS.. AND LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER           
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE DEEPEST MOISTURE STAYS WEST OF THE FORECAST            
AREA.. SO THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE SHOWERS DECREASES FARTHER EAST              
WITHIN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  GRIDDED RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS               
ONLY SHOW MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE SAN            
JUANS.  SURROUNDING UPPER AIR DATA AND SOUNDER SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT           
THESE TRENDS.. AND WILL ESSENTIALLY BASE FORECASTS ON THE SHORT TERM            
RUC AND MESOETA MODELS.  MEAN WIND FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS KEEP STORMS             
MOVING ALONG AND ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL NOT LAST               
TOO LONG AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH COOLING                 
SHOWERS WILL BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE.. AND STOP THE               
STRING OF 100 PLUS DAYS AT KGJT.                                                
ONCE SHORT WAVE PASSES.. AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST ON SUNDAY AS             
TODAY.. AND MODELS INDICATE A SUBSIDENCE LAYER ABOVE 500 MB THAT                
WILL IMPEDE CONVECTION.  BUT RELATIVE MOIST LOWER LEVELS AND STRONG             
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDER            
THAT FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  A RETURN TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED              
THAT LAST FEW DAYS.. ISOLATED VALLEY ACTIVITY BUT SCATTERED STORMS IN           
THE MOUNTAINS.  EXCEPT STORMS WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THEY HAVE BEEN.             
FRISBIE                                                                         
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
249 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC H5-H3 STREAMLINES SHOW UPPER            
L/W TROUGH EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD. DECENT UPPER DRYING NOTED ON               
WATER VAPOR ACROSS FL PANHANDLE AND S GA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO                
MOVE TWD NRN ZONES BY THIS AFTN. NOT AS MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS ARND AS            
AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN BRINGING A                  
MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY.                                                  
TODAY...S/W OFF THE NC COAST CONTINUES TO DROP SE WITHIN THE L/W                
TROUGH BRINGING WHATS LEFT OF THE UPR TROUGH AXIS TWD S FL. ETA/NGM             
BOTH SHOW AREA OF NVA/SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO NRN ZONES THIS AFTN                
WHICH WILL BRING DRYING ABOVE H7 TO NRN AREAS THIS AFTN. PWAT PROGS             
STILL ARND 1.8 ON THE BIG THREE MODELS FOR THIS AFTN...A BIT HIGHER             
THAN THAN YDAYS 00Z RUNS. SFC SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LGT THIS MORNING            
AND THEN BECOME E/SE 5-10 MPH THIS AFTN. STEERING FLOW THIS AFTN                
WILL BE FROM THE N TO NE IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE SO SEA BRZ CONVECTION             
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY INLAND...A SWITCH FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WHEN                
STORMS HAVE MOVED BACK TWD THE E CST IN THE LATE AFTN. MODEL POPS IN            
THE 30-40 RANGE. UNDERCUTTING LOOKS GOOD FOR NRN CSTL...WHERE                   
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INLAND AND UPPER DRYING MOVES IN THIS AFTN. 40             
RANGE FOR SRN INTERIOR SHOULD DO IT FOR BEST COVERAGE.                          
TONIGHT...SLGT CHANCE EVE POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...OTHERWISE QUIET            
NIGHT WITH LOWS 70-75.                                                          
SUNDAY...MODEL POPS CONVERGING AROUND 30 CWA-WIDE WHICH IS THE GOING            
FORECAST. FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW            
ALOFT WITH DRY AIR ABOVE H7. NGM/ETA HINT A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING DOWN            
BACK SIDE OF TROUGH SUN AFTN INTO NRN ZONES WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO              
TRIGGER SOME STORMS OTHER THAN SCT SEA BRZ CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD              
FOCUS ALONG CSTL COUNTIES AND PROPOGATE SOUTHWARD. WEAK SW SFC FLOW             
AND SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL GENERATE SOME SCT SEA BRZ TSTMS            
AS WELL. WILL KEEP 30 POP WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LYR.           
SUN NGT/MON...FCST GETS MORE INTERESTING WITH BOTH ETA/NGM FCSTING              
NEXT S/W AND ASSOC VORT MAX ACROSS SC/GA SUN EVE. ETA TRACKS FEATURE            
INTO NE FL SUN NGT WHILE AVN MOVES VORT SE OFF THE COAST. ON                    
MON...WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPR S/W OR NOT...DEVELOPING SW               
LOW LVL FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BRZ CONVECTION TO AGAIN BE CONCENTRATED             
ON THE E SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. WILL LEAN TWD HIGHER END OF SCT                 
RANGE FOR MON AFTN...WHICH IS ALSO WELL COVERED IN THE FCST.                    
EXTENDED...A SERIES OF UPR S/W'S WILL TRACK TWD FL AND THE SE IN                
NW/N FLOW ALOFT. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW WHICH IS ALSO             
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ON THE E SIDE OF THE                     
PENINSULA. HIGH SCT RANGE POPS IN EXTENDED LOOK GOOD. WILL TAKE A               
LOOK AT NEW MRF AND MAY MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.                                
MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY ARND 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 60 HRS. WILL               
PICK UP WINDS TO SW 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE NRN LEG SUN NGT THOUGH AS              
PRES GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT.                                                  
PRELIM...                                                                       
DAB BB 090/073 091/072 091 152-3                                                
MCO BB 093/074 093/073 092 15323                                                
MLB BB 089/074 090/074 091 153-3                                                
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
150 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
ADJACENT WFOS PLEASE NOTE: PARTS ARE ON EMERGENCY ORDER FOR THE KLTX            
RADAR...WHICH WAS APPARENTLY STRUCK BY LIGHTNING YDAY AFTERNOON. THE            
PARTS ARE DUE TO ARRIVE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT MAY TAKE A COUPLE             
DAYS TO MAKE THE REPAIRS.                                                       
DISCUSSION...AS OF THE 05Z SFC ANALYSIS THE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM             
JUST SE OF FRYING PAN SHOALS TO NEAR CHS WITH HIGH PRES ACROSS THE              
MID-ATLC REGION. RUC/ETA/AVN HAVE THE FRONT ACROSS CHS/S CWA TODAY              
...WEAKENING W/ WEAK RETURN FLOW LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS             
IS NOW OFF THE COAST W/ A BAND OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ERN                     
CAROLINAS MOVING E. LARGE MID/UPPER HIGH WAS FOUND ACROSS THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS...PLACING THE SERN US UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS                
FLOW WILL DIRECT HARD TO PINPOINT/TIME MID-LVL VORT MAXES TOWARD THE            
REGION THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ONE THAT HAS SHOWN CONTINUITY IS ON TAP             
FOR SUN NIGHT.                                                                  
FOR TODAY...EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES W/ SOME THIN CI                  
POSSIBLY TO MOVE ACROSS LATER TODAY. THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED                 
NICELY W/ THE BEST CAPE/LIFTED INDICES TO BE FOUND ALONG THE SAV                
RIVER...SO NIL POPS. SHOULD SEE AN INACTIVE SEA BREEZE DEVELOP TODAY            
GIVEN THE INSOLATION AND WEAK FLOW IN THE BLYR. MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY            
FOG DEVELOP UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...AND GUIDANCE LOOKS               
REASONABLE WITH A SPREAD OF 65-70. ON SUN...RETURN FLOW IS UNDERWAY             
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE NW. INSTABILITY                   
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND COULD SEE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE            
AFTERNOON. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES ARE ON TAP FOR SUN NIGHT INTO               
MON MORNING...THOUGH I CAN NOT SEE GOING HIGHER THAN 40 POPS GIVEN              
THAT THE AMS WILL ONLY HAS TIME TO DESTABILIZE TO MARGINAL LEVELS.              
A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS IN THE EXTENDED W/ REGARD TO RAFL CHANCES.              
PER AVN...COULD SEE A REPEAT OF SUN NIGHT/MON ON TUE NIGHT/WED. THE             
SEA BREEZE MAY BE ACTIVE IN BETWEEN AS WELL. WILL SEE HOW THE NEW               
MRF DEPICTS THINGS BEFORE I MAKE MY FINAL DECISIONS.                            
CWF: WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF MY                    
WATERS...HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS MHX/S WATERS NE FLOW IS ON             
TAP. SO PLAN ON INITIALIZING W/ NE FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THEN BECMG              
ELY 10 KT (E-SE SC WATERS). WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NC COAST                
TONIGHT...W/ LGT SELY FLOW EVENTUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE S-SW                
LATE. 9S SE GROUND SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS. NOAA                      
WAVEWATCH III HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS WAVE COMPONENT...WHICH              
LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NO FLAGS.                       
FCSTID = 29                                                                     
ILM   86  68  89  73 /   0   0  30  40                                          
LBT   88  69  90  72 /   0   0  40  40                                          
FLO   90  70  92  73 /   0   0  40  40                                          
MYR   84  70  87  74 /   0   0  30  40                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
PFAFF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN/TSRA IN SOUTHEAST FA TDA.                       
HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OVER SW CONUS AND A                  
LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE GULF OF AK...STARTING TO MOVING INTO BC AND              
THE PAC NW. RUC/WV IMAGERY SHOWING A MCS ASSOC WITH A RATHER                    
PRONOUNCED SHRTWV OVER SD THIS AM. THE FLOW AROUND THE BROAD ULVL               
RIDGE SHOULD PULL THIS TO THE S OF FA TDA. A WEAKER SHRTWV STRETCHED            
FROM NR KISN TO NR CWPL AT 13Z. A CDFNT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER                 
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AM...TO A LOW NR KLSE...AND THRU THE                 
CNTRL PLAINS.                                                                   
MESO-ETA AND AVN/RUC SEEM TO DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF               
THE CDFNT THUR FA TDA. RUC/AVN PULLS THE CDFNT INTO NRN LOWER BY                
21Z...WHILE MESO-ETA HANGS THE FRONT BACK A LTL OVR CNTRL UP.                   
HOWEVER...THE MDLS AGREE ON KEEPING THE SHRTWV ENERGY OVER WRN                  
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 21Z. 310K ISENTROPIC ANLYS ON ALL MDLS FAVOR                   
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER S CNTRL CWA. ULVL 90KT JET WILL SWING             
DOWN ACRS SRN PART OF CWA THIS AFTN. SFC DWPNTS REMAIN AROUND 60F               
THIS AM. LIMITING FACTOR SEEMS TO BE DRYNESS IN THE MLVL. WORKING               
THRU THE SEVERE WX CHECKLIST...THE BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL BE ARND                
KMNM BY LATE AFTN AS CAPE VALUES ARE XPCTD TO REACH 1.5KJ/KG.  WILL             
KEEP CHC TSRA FOR THIS AFTN FOR SRN COUNTIES. SOME STRONG WNDS MAY              
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. XPCT SOME BLOWOFF FM THE STORMS TO THE                  
W...SHOULD LIMIT HEATING AS WELL. WILL KEEP WITH MOS GUIDANCE.                  
DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO FOR AREA OVRNGT. XPCT SKIES TO BCM CLR. WNDS             
WILL BE LGT WITH A APPROACH OF HI PRES RIDGE FOLLOWING THE FRONT.               
THIS SHOULD PERMIT SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL POSSIBLY               
FALL BELOW GUIDANCE...AS MOS USUALLY DOES NOT HANDLE RADIATIONAL                
COOLING VERY WELL.                                                              
COORDINATED WITH GRB AND APX.                                                   
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1115 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                      
MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS UPDATE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS             
UPSTATE SC/NE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE FACTORS SUGGESTING             
THAT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL NOT HAPPEN. MORNING RAOBS SHOW                  
PRONOUNCED NOSE OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR THAT SHOULD PROVE TO BE A                 
FORMIDABLE CAP ON CONVECTION. THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE VERY LITTLE              
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE SURFACE                    
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL OR REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S. WEAK SHORT WAVE               
OVER EASTERN KY SHOULD DROP TO THE SE AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA              
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH              
AC ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT              
15Z. THIS CLOUDINESS WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING AND INSTABILITY AND               
MAY FORCE ME TO CUT THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN                
SOME ZONES. THE ETA AND RUC SHOW THE SHORT WAVE MOVING PAST THE                 
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH DNVA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
IN SPITE OF ALL THIS NEGATIVE STUFF...THINK THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE              
STILL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPSTATE IN AN                
AREA OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN               
THE E TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE SURFACE HIGH                
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS                  
TN/GA. THIS AREA ALSO STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A FEW                
UPDRAFTS THAT COULD BREAK THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY GIVEN SLIGHTLY                
HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS.                                                       
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1005 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                      
MSAS INDICATES OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH.              
WITH ONSHORE FLOW TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALREADY A FEW DEGREES COOLER             
THAN YTD AT THE SAME TIME. RUC SHOWS S/WV MOVING ACROSS CWA LATE                
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH SOME LOLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO                 
THERE COULD STILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EVENING HOURS. MINOR                  
CHANGES TO THE WINDS ON UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.              
CWF...CD FNT HAS PUSHED INTO SRN PTN OF THE SC WATERS THIS MORNING.             
BEHIND THE FRONT...PG A SOLID 15 KT OUT OF THE E-NE AS EVIDENCED BY             
OBS AT 41004 AND FBIS1. EVEN STRONGER UPSTREAM AT FPSN7. WILL                   
INITIALIZE SC WATERS AT E 15 KT AND 3-4 FT. WILL INITIALIZE THE CHS             
HARBOR AT E 10-15 KT. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE BY LATE AFTN. OVER THE              
GA WATERS...SW WINDS WILL BECOME S THIS AFTN. NO CHGS PLANNED.                  
FCSTID = 30                                                                     
CHS   89  73  93  74 /  20  10  40  40                                          
SAV   91  72  94  74 /  30  20  30  50                                          
CHL   91  76  97  77 /  20  10  40  40                                          
NBC   90  74  93  75 /  20  10  40  40                                          
RBW   91  70  94  73 /  20  10  40  30                                          
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TJR/JH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
SOME CHANGES IN STORE TO CURRENT FCST. ELY FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE             
AREA WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. ACARS SOUNDING THIS            
AM SHOWS H85 TEMP AROUND 17C. SFC TEMPS AROUND 4 DEG COOLER TDY THAN            
YDY SO I THINK TEMPS WONT GET AS HIGH AS YDY, WILL CUT BACK TEMPS               
AROUND ONE CAT. ALSO BUFKIT INDICATING BNDRY LYR WINDS AROUND 13KTS,            
SO WILL BUMP UP WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTN.                               
SYNOPTICALLY...HIGH PRESS OVR MID ATLC WILL SLIDE TO THE ESE. OLD               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD CAUSE AN ISOL SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN IN BURKE,              
BARNWELL, OR BAMBERG COUNTIES...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR N AS AGS.              
RUC AND AVN SHOW MOST OF THE CWA MUCH MORE STABLE THAN ETA, WHICH               
WAS VERY HIGH WITH LI'S YDY.                                                    
FCSTID = 17                                                                     
CAE   90  72  93  73 /   0   0  50  30                                          
AGS   90  71  93  72 /  10  10  50  30                                          
SSC   90  72  93  73 /   0   0  50  30                                          
OGB   90  72  93  73 /   0   0  50  30                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
JDB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
956 AM CDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WI S ACROSS             
IL AND W TN...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NE MS THROUGH SE GA.                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO MID                  
ATLANTIC REGION.                                                                
BOTH 12Z 850/700 MB ANALYSES SHOWED STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO OUR NW             
AND N...WITH STRONGEST PUSH ACROSS IL...IN AND OH WHERE STRONGER                
WIND FIELDS WERE LOCATED.                                                       
SOMETIME AROUND 07Z A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) BEGAN TO               
DEVELOP ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER IN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM                 
ADVECTION NEAR NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. THE DEVELOPMENT ALSO FIT THE              
APPROXIMATE LOCATION WHERE ONE MIGHT EXPECT USING SATURATION                    
THICKNESS VALUES. THE MCS HAS NOW TAKEN A MORE SE COURSE AND                    
CURRENTLY IS OVER N CENTRAL IN INTO W CENTRAL OH.                               
THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY PRECIP TODAY WILL BE N OF US...WITH THE LEAST           
CHANCES TO OUR W...WHERE QUITE WARM TEMPS ALOFT MAY ACT TO INHIBIT              
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
LATEST RUC MODEL FORECASTS RISING 1000/500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THIS             
AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT WARMING AT 500 MB LEVEL AS WELL. AXIS OF                
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AT SURFACE FORECAST TO BE TO OUR W AND N.                
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP             
IN KY AND DEVELOP AS FAR S AS N MIDDLE TN...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS              
RATHER DOUBTFUL. CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE IN FORECAST FOR THAT AREA                
LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.                                                          
HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS OK FOR THE MOST PART.               
WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO CHANGE FORECAST WORDING SLIGHTLY.                          
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
STEIGERWALDT                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
141 PM MDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 400MB MODEL DATA ANALYSES             
AND 12Z/07 UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED EWD                
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS.  HIGH CENTROID AROUND S CNTRL KS. 500-250MB              
WINDS PRETTY MUCH S-SELY PER LAPS SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES.             
NOTICED FAIRLY STEEP 500MB TEMP/DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...20-30C...               
ACROSS NM...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.  UPPER LEVEL "DRY" SLOT OVER ERN              
CO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HAS EVEN "BACKDOORED" INTO SAN JUAN            
MTNS LIMITING TSTM DEVELOPMENT THERE.  NO LIGHTNING STRIKES IN                  
CWFA...YET.  MDL'S 0-3HR PROB OF LIGHTNING SUGGEST ONLY A SMALL                 
POTENTIAL IN THE UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY AND PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 19Z-              
22Z.                                                                            
WEAK OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH SERN CO BETWEEN 15Z-18Z PER             
SFC OBS/RADAR.  THERMAL LOW..."LA JUNTA LOW"...ALREADY FORMING.  A              
FEW LOW LEVEL CONVG SPOKES IN SERN CO.  TSTM INITIATION IN SERN CO              
SHOULD BE TOUGH WITH RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY" AIR MASS...20MB MOISTURE             
LAYER AROUND 600MB...AND CAPPING INVERSION.  OLD QUASI-STATIONARY               
FRONT FROM KFNL-KAKO-KITR-KGLD-KMCK PER 16Z/07 SFC ANALYSIS. 18Z/07             
SFC ANALYSIS HAD FULL FRONTAL RECOVERY IN NE...BUT SFC WINDS STILL              
OUT OF THE NE IN NERN CO.  KLIC NELY WIND MAY BE MORE INFLUENCED BY             
"LA JUNTA LOW" THAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS APPROACHING 100F AGAIN             
IN LOWER AR RVR VALLEY.  DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN "MONSOON" IS UNDERWAY            
PER SFC/UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.                               
RGNL RADARS NOT SHOWING MUCH SHRA/TSTM FORMING...AT THE MOMENT.  CU/            
TCU OUT THE WINDOW NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...EITHER.                            
TNGT: POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS TO FORM NEAR THE RGN.  BEST           
THREAT AREA WOULD BE ERN WY/NERN CO/SD/NE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE MID            
LEVEL THERMAL "CAP."  ALL THE BEST THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION                   
PARAMETERS ARE POINTING MCS DEVELOPMENT N OF CO...BUT ALL DEPENDS IF            
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NERN CO CAN MIX OUT...OR LIFT NWD THIS           
AFTN.  SHALLOW OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP WITH TSTM INITIATION IN N              
CNTRL/NERN CO.  IF NOCTURNAL MCS DOES FORM TNGT...IT SHOULD MIGRATE             
EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS ANY TSTM                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD MOVE INTO SERN CO LATER TNGT AND KEEP THE              
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH 850-           
700MB 5-15KT NLY FLOW ACROSS SERN CO TNGT.  THE BIGGEST...AND MOST              
CRITICAL...ELEMENT MISSING IS VERTICAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR TSTM           
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CWFA...EXCEPT SAN JUAN MTNS/COLLEGIATE               
PEAKS.  AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH TIME TNGT.  ETA/MESO-ETA              
ARE PRINTING OUT NO QPF ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CWFA TNGT...EXCEPT             
THE SWRN/CNTRL CO MTNS THIS EVE. PLAN TO GO WITH DIURNAL ISOLD-SCT              
COVERAGE SERN MTNS AND WWD TNGT. ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR WILL HOLD ONTO             
SMALL CONDITIONAL POP DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. DURING THE PAST FEW NGTS...           
WE HAD LATE NGT SURGES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DIDN'T PRODUCE               
ANYTHING...NOT EVEN CLOUDS.                                                     
SUN-SUN NGT: UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH ON SUN. HARD TO            
FIND A SYNOPTIC SCALE TRIGGER. WEAK ELY WAVES MOVE ACROSS SRN PLAINS            
TOWARDS SERN CO...BUT ARE WEAK AND HARD TO TRACK.  WEAK E-NELY LOW              
LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO...ESPECIALLY SUN AFTN...WILL BE            
THE ONLY HOPE FOR TSTM INITIATION.  SFC BASED LIS PROGGED TO BE -2 TO           
-6C ACROSS SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS WITH SOME CAPE TO WORK WITH...600-2000           
J/KG. MESO-ETA HINTS AT TSTM DEVELOPING IN SERN CO MTNS AROUND 21Z              
THEN SPREADING INTO ADJACENT PLAINS.  LOW LEVEL CONVG ZONE SETS UP              
ACROSS SERN CO SUN EVE WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A TSTM INITIATION FOCAL              
POINT...ALONG WITH ANY TSTM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  INITIALLY...MUCH OF            
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IS AOA 500MB...AND IS A LITTLE              
DEEPER ALONG THE CONTDVD.  PLAN TO BOOST SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS POPS TO            
40% SUN NGT.  ALSO WILL NOT GO WITH ANY "TIMERS" SUN NGT AS MODELS              
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS ERN CO/WRN NE.              
TEMPS AOA JUL AVES.  MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS TYPICAL...WARMER FWC AND                
COOLER MAV.  WILL STICK CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE.                                   
MON-MON NGT: IF SUN NGT TSTMS DO DEVELOP...THIS SHOULD HELP MOISTEN             
LOW LEVELS IN SERN CO.  ETA/MESO-ETA SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER SFC             
DEW POINTS...55-60F...ACROSS SERN CO MON-MON NGT.  SYNOPTIC SCALE               
PATTERN AND KINEMATICS ARE FAIRLY PERSISTENT...SO MORE OF THE SAME              
PRECIPITATIONWISE.  MAX TEMPS ACROSS SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS MAY BE A FEW           
DEGS COOLER GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL...EARLIER AND GREATER             
CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIAL TSTMS.  AGAIN...MOS GUIDANCE NIGHT AND              
DAY...FWC WARMER AND MAV WAAAAY COOL(ONLY 75F AT KCOS MON). PLAN TO             
COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY FROM CURRENT ZFP NUMBERS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS MAV           
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
EXTENDED(TUE-SAT): DAY 3-7 MODELS SUGGEST HIGH OVER CNTRL PLAINS WILL           
RETROGRADE TO NEAR SERN CO BY DAYS 6-7.  ECMWF HAS HIGH DIRECTLY OVER           
SERN CO BY DAY 7...WHILE MRF HAS IT OVER NM.  THIS MEANS CWFA WILL BE           
FLIRTING WITH ERN FRINGE OF DESERT SW/GREAT BASIN "MONSOON."  JUST              
WISH MY YARD WILL GET ALL THAT MRF QPF DURING TUE-SAT!  TEMPS WILL              
LIKELY BE AOA JUL CLIMO WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL SLGT CHC-CHC TSTM.                 
PUB...NONE.                                                                     
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AT TIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING            
OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MCS OVER OHIO AND KENTUCKY MOVING SOUTHWARD             
ALONG MID LEVEL THICKNESS CONTOURS. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL                
STAY WELL TO THE WEST.. BUT SOME OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD WORK               
INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING.                               
MID LEVEL WARM FRONT MOVING OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WARM                    
ADVECTION SETTING UP AT 850 AND 700 MB. 12Z IAD SOUNDING AND EARLY              
EVENING MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z ETA AND RUC SHOW VERY DRY AMS              
AT THE LOW LEVELS... BUT ETA/AVN IN AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH SATURATION            
WILL OCCUR WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LATER TONIGHT TO WARRANT AT LEAST A             
CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                             
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...            
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP BETWEEN MODELS. ETA               
HOLDING FRONT UP UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING WHILE AVN ABOUT 6 HOURS                   
FASTER.  EITHER WAY... MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWING             
LI VALUES AROUND -5 AND CAPES OVER 2000 SO ENOUGH INSTABILITY                   
PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ONLY QUESTION IS              
HOW LONG TO KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST... AND PLANNING AT TIME TO              
END PRECIP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY 00Z MONDAY.                                
AVN/MRF... ECMWF AND CANADIAN ALL SPEED UP WAEK COLD FRONT THROUGH              
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  WILL BUMP PRECIP UP IN THE EXTENDED TO              
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. END OF NEXT WEEK HAS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH              
DIGGING DOWN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD BE A DRY PATTERN WITH                   
SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE... BUT TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY END UP 3-5              
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                                                           
DCA   69  87  71  89 /  20  30  30   0                                          
BWI   66  88  69  88 /  30  30  30   0                                          
MRB   67  87  66  89 /  30  30  10   0                                          
IAD   66  88  66  90 /  30  30  30   0                                          
CHO   67  89  69  90 /  10  30  30   0                                          
HGR   66  86  66  87 /  30  30  10   0                                          
NHK   70  88  71  89 /  10  30  30   0                                          
W99   67  89  68  90 /  30  30  10   0                                          
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES SUN AFTERNOON AND                  
MONDAY.                                                                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL WEAK SHRTWVS EMBEDDED             
IN FAST WNW FLOW FROM SRN CANADA TO THE GRT LAKES BTWN SRN CONUS RDG            
AND HUDSON BAY TROF. ONE WEAK 700-500 MB SHRTWV OVER NRN WI AND                 
ASSOCIATED WEAK 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT HAD BROUGHT SOME -SHRA OR                  
SPRINKLES FROM NE WI INTO MNM COUNTY...PER KMQT/KGRB 88DS.                      
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING NOTED AS UPR LVL 110KT JET MOVES INTO LK                     
SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...DECAYING FRNTL BNDRY HAD MOVED TO POSITION               
FROM FAR ERN UPR MI INTO CNTRL WI. SYNOPTIC FRNT POSITION OBSCURED A            
BIT BY WEAK WIND FIELD WHICH HAS ALLOWED LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF              
OF LK SUPERIOR AND LK MI WITH LCL CONVERGENCE AREA NRTH OF THE FRNT.            
DEEPER CONVECTION HAD INITIATED CLOSER TO THE FRNT NEAR GRB WHERE               
T/TD NEAR 85/72 RAISED CAPES TO AROUND 2.0K J/KG. CLOUD COVER OVER              
UPR MI HAS LIMITED INSOLATION/INSTABILITY DESPITE TD STILL IN THE               
MID 60S F.                                                                      
MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO FEATURES                      
AFFECTING UPR MI. ETA GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR LLVL DETAILS.                      
TONIGHT...ENHANCED LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO                 
OVERCOME LIMITED HEATING FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER AND WARM 750-650              
LYR PER 12Z KAPX/KGRB AND RUC/ETA FCST SNDGS. SO...TSRA CHANCES HAVE            
DWINDLED WITH BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND EAST OF UPR MI. VIS LOOP                 
TRENDS SUGGEST CLEARING OVER WRN 1/3 WILL PROGRESS ACRS REST OF THE             
CWA THIS EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK DRY ADVECTION (LOW            
TO MID 50S TD UPSTREAM OVER NE MN AND ONTARIO) WITH DIMINISHING NW              
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD            
RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE. GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO BE WEAK ENOUGH 950 TO            
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS) ALLOW WINDS TO MOSTLY DECOUPLE.                          
SUNDAY...WNW LLVL FLOW CONTINUE ACRS UPR MI WITH POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR            
MID PENINSULA LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ERN CWA. WITH DRIER                
AIR FCST (TD IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S F) CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE                  
MINIMAL (BLO 400 J/KG). UPR LVL SUPPORT ALSO LACKING WITH RRQ DIV               
FROM JET LAGGING TO THE WEST FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO UPR MS VALLEY.              
WHILE IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP...WITH            
ONLY LO CHANCE AND MINIMAL COVERAGE AT BEST...IT DOES NOT WARRANT               
MENTION ATTM. FCST NW 950 WINDS OF 10-15 KTS SHOULD BE WEAK ENOUGH              
TO ALLOW LK BREEZE INTO SHORELINE VCNTY NEAR MARQUETTE DURING THE               
AFTERNOON AFTER EARLIER HIGH NEAR PREVIOUS FCST VALUES.                         
AVN/ETA SUGGEST THAT SHRTWV MAY BRUSH AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THAT                
BEST QG FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ONLY QPF IS                 
DEPICTED. ETA/AVN/UKMET ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE               
PRONOUNCED SFC TROF/FRNT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY WITH TROF JUST             
SOUTH OF UPR MI BY 00Z/TUE. WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE              
INFLOW EXPECTED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS MENTIONED.                                 
EXTENDED...MRF/UKMET/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER            
OF THE WEEK WITH ECMWF DISPLAYING BEST CONTINUITY WITH PROGRESSION              
OF TROF FROM HUDSON BAY INTO ERN CANADA. ACCORDINGLY...ECMWF                    
PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW INTO THE WRN LAKES AND              
TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD (AVERAGING 4C WARMER AT H8 THAN MRF).                   
HOWEVER...SFC RDG INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH NRLY FLOW SHOULD BRING                
TEMPS A BIT BLO CLIMATOLOGY...ESPECIALLY FOR LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE              
LOCATIONS. WHILE WEAK SHRTWVS MAY DESCEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE                
NW...LOCATION OF MAIN SFC BNDRY WITH BEST MOISTURE FAR TO THE                   
SW...SUGGESTS UPR MI WILL REMAIN DRY. CONFIDENCE FOR COMPLETELY DRY             
FCST DIMINISHES BY SATURDAY...HOWEVER...AS FLOW DEAMPLIFIES WITH                
BETTER POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV AFFECTING THE AREA WITH                
SOME MOISTURE RETURN.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
RECENT GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 88DS SHOWING AN AREA OF              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN                    
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY              
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A              
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE NEAR THE STRAITS TO CENTRAL IOWA               
AND NEBRASKA.  COVERAGE OF SHOWERS NEAR THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN                   
GENERALLY DECREASING IN FAVOR OF DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE             
SURFACE/850MB WARM FRONT AND THE EDGE OF THE 700MB THERMAL CAP.                 
WEAK CONVECTION NEAR CHICAGO- ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT- HAS                 
TAKEN ON A LINEAR STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST HOUR, LIKELY IN RESPONSE              
TO STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW (700-500MB) OF 40-50KTS.  EXPECT THAT THIS             
ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, AS SUGGESTED BY               
THE 15Z RUC-40 850-300MB MEAN WIND AND THERMAL WIND.  THE LACK OF               
INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA (DUE TO PROLONGED CLOUDCOVER) AND            
THE INTERCEPTION OF ELEVATED POTENTIAL BY THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE             
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM FEATURES.  THE AXIS OF                   
STRONGEST 850-500MB WINDS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,                   
PINNING THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST               
LOWER/NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO, WHERE THE HODOGRAPHS REMAIN LONG               
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR LINEAR ORGANIZATION.                      
NEVERTHELESS STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE WITH A                  
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH THE BOUNDARY                
PINCHING IN AND DEWPOINT POOLING (LOWER 70S IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN)-             
ALONG WITH WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION, WITH BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDER            
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY                 
AXIS.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (>1.8IN) ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH             
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE INSTABILITY            
GRADIENT CONTINUE TO POSE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.                
NCEP/DTX SUITES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH CONVECTIVE FEATURES DURING            
THE FIRST PERIOD.  THE ETA-XX HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER,                      
ESPECIALLY WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT, BUT HAS STILL LACKED SKILL WITH                
PINPOINTING LESS PROMINENT FEATURES.  CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES WILL             
EXIST UNTIL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY- ESSENTIALLY A DRYLINE- CLEARS THE             
AREA.  THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE BOUNDARY- ACROSS IOWA- WILL REMAIN            
QUASI-STATIONARY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH SKIRTS THE UPPER RIDGE,                   
DEFORMING THE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKES REGION (ALMOST IN             
BACKDOOR FASHION). PASSAGE TIMING CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT IN               
THE NEAR-TERM PROGS (INTERCOMPARISON AND RUN-TO-RUN).  THE NCEP                 
ETA-22 IS THE SLOWEST, LAGGING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER                    
POST-12Z SUNDAY.  IT APPEARS THIS CHANGE IN THE ETA TIMING FROM IT/S            
PREVIOUS RUNS IS RELATED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ON THE                
MOIST SIDE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TONIGHT, RETARDING              
THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE EVEN THE ETA MEAN              
CLOUD LAYER (850-300MB) FLOW WILL BE TOWARD THE E-SE AND CORFIDI                
VECTORS TOWARD THE SOUTH (SUGGESTING NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT ON THE                
OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES FROM THE BOUNDARY), THE              
FASTER TIMING OFFERED BY ALL THE OTHER SOLUTIONS APPEARS MORE                   
VIABLE.                                                                         
THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP                
LAYER OF DRY AIR, EVIDENCED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO LAKE                 
SUPERIOR ON GOES-E VAPOR IMAGERY.  ABUNDANT INSOLATION, LACK OF                 
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, AND THE ABSENCE OF COLD ADVECTION               
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EASILY RISE ABOVE TODAY/S LEVELS.  A FEW             
SHALLOW PANCAKE CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT                   
RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL TONIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT MOSTLY                 
SUNNY WORDING. FWCS CONTINUE TO BE TOO HIGH (92 AT DTW), WILL FAVOR             
COOLER MAV/ETA 2M TEMPS (MID-UPPER 80S), BASED ON TRAJECTORY                    
ANALYSES AND CURRENT UPSTREAM READINGS.  LAKE BREEZES SHOULD SETUP              
NEAR LAKE HURON WHERE LAKE SURFACE TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 60S AND                 
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT FLOW WEAK.  SIMILAR                    
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES             
HIGHER AS THE 850-700MB COLUMN WARMS IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION              
FROM THE WEST OFF THE HEAT DOME OVER THE PLAINS STATES.  THE SURFACE            
BOUNDARY ALSO ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN MONDAY.                                                                
THE AVN PRODUCES AN MCS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST             
AND SOUTH ON MONDAY, WITH SOME RESIDUAL QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA              
MONDAY EVENING NEAR THE AXIS OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.  THE 12Z              
ETA-XX IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN, WITH LESS COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN              
LAKES REGION.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEAR                
1.5IN AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND WEAK SHORTWAVE                 
INFLUENCES, THE CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT ARE NOT NILL, BUT WILL            
HOLD OFF THE MENTION FOR NOW.                                                   
LONGWAVE REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.                 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE KEY COMPONENTS- EASTERN HUDSON BAY LOW AND                 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE AXIS.  TREND ANALYSIS (MRF/GLOBAL/ETA-XX)              
DEPICTS GREATER AMPLIFICATION TO THE REGIME (ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN             
NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH), RESULTING IN LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION            
DURING MID-WEEK, WITH SOME RECOVERY BY WEEK/S END. LITTLE                       
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED PROGS REGARDING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN            
EVOLUTION. HOWEVER, THE SOME DISCREPANCIES REGARDING SHORTWAVE                  
FEATURES PROPAGATING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW                
OVER THE LAKES REGION.  THE MRF LACKS CLEAR DEFINITION, WHILE THE               
CMC GLOBAL PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT, CONCENTRATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH                
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 144H. THE ETA-XX RESIDES BETWEEN WITH A             
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.               
BASED ON THE TREND TOWARD LONGWAVE RE-AMPLIFICATION, THE GLOBAL                 
DEPICTION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FLATTENING THE RIDGE OUT WEST APPEAR            
OVERDONE, WHILE THE LACK OF ANY FEATURES IN THE MRF APPEARS JUST AS             
UNREASONABLE.  THEREFORE, EXPECT THAT A SOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO THE            
ETA-XX.  AS IS TYPICAL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE SUMMER SEASON,            
THESE WAVES SHOULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                  
UPSTREAM, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE LAKES REGION.  MAXES              
SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS                 
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INCREASE.                                               
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
MANN                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
233 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2001                                                       
...LATE NIGHT CONVECTION AND HEAT INDICES REMAIN THE CHALLENGES...              
BEGINNING WITH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION...PATTERN REMAINS VERY                 
SIMILAR TO LAST 24 HOURS...WITH SYNOPTIC REGIME IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER            
MCS ORIGINATING IN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THEN             
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH             
THEIR QPF IN THIS PATTERN...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SUMMER NOCTURNAL                
CONVECTION.  RUC40 WAS BY FAR THE BEST AT REPRESENTING THE OUTFLOW              
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS ITS                 
SOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING.                                                     
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING              
FROM NEAR SIOUX CITY TO ERN COLORADO...WITH CHADRON SURFACE DEWPOINT            
67.  PER SWODY1 AND RUC40...AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTIVE                  
INITIATION WOULD BE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM               
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WEST.  WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HINTS OF A                   
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN WYOMING...WITH MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE              
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE STILL CENTERED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.             
CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SNOWY RANGE OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING               
AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AT 19Z.                                              
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MORE QUASI-STATIONARY BY THIS                       
EVENING...AND HIGH CAPE VALUES WILL RESIDE FARTHER EAST ALONG THE               
BOUNDARY.  850 BOUNDARY IS PROGGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS                
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...AND BY 03Z 850 THETA-E ADVECTION MAX IS NEAR                
OFK.  CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT...OR                   
SOUTHEAST...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES REACH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.              
MISSING INGREDIENT MAY BE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT FRONTAL FORCING AND               
AMBIENT MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT WITHOUT A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET.              
THUS WILL CONTINUE 20-30 POPS IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND               
AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS ADVERTISE MORE FORCING SUNDAY NIGHT AND             
MAY INCREASE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND TREND FARTHER SOUTH...                     
AND KEEP A MENTION ON MONDAY.  BELIEVE THE AVN IS OVERDONE WITH                 
PUSHING FRONT INTO SRN PLAINS MONDAY...WITH KANSAS MORE LIKELY                  
FRONTAL POSITION.  SOME ISENTROPIC FORCING OVER THE BOUNDARY WILL BE            
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.  AVN SHOWS UPPER RIDGE DROPPING A BIT SOUTHWEST             
BY MONDAY NIGHT...THUS PULLING STRONGER CAP EDGE FARTHER SOUTHWEST.             
TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY                      
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ABOVE MENTIONED POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY...WITH            
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHERN ZONES FARTHER AWAY FROM MCS THREAT.               
MESOETA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PROGS HAVE BEEN SUPERIOR TO OTHER                   
GUIDANCE NUMBERS WITH 100+ READINGS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.  AT LEAST FOR            
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WARM MESOETA TEMPERATURES...BUT BY                
MONDAY WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS MOS VALUES WITH HIGHER THREAT OF                 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.                                                            
LOWS THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOWER 80S FROM FALLS CITY INTO IOWA               
COUNTIES...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN LOWER 70S.  SIMILAR LOWS                 
EXPECTED TONIGHT...THUS NIGHT TIME HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING                 
MET.  BASED ON COORDINATION WITH GID/DSM/TOP/EAX...WILL CONTINUE THE            
HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT TRIM SOME OF THE COUNTIES ON              
THE NORTHWEST FRINGE.                                                           
.OMA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NEZ052-053-066>068-078-                     
       088>093 AND IAZ069-079-080-090-091                                       
NIETFELD                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ne