SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
930 PM MST WED MAR 31 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A WINTER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE            
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THEN STALL OUT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY. THE              
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BRING MORE WIND AND               
SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. AS SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE FEEDS INTO THE            
SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED VALLEY RAINS            
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME OF THE             
COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AND MAY DROP                   
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY                   
NIGHTS. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON                  
EASTER SUNDAY.                                                                  
DISCUSSION...WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF SE AZ              
EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY WHERE THEY ARE STILL BLOWING                
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. 00Z RUC SHOWED AN INCREASE IN 700 MB WIND                
SPEEDS TO NEAR 50 KTS OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND AND AFTER A                  
COORDINATION CALL WITH FLG...DECIDED TO EXTEND WIND ADVISORY TO 6 AM            
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONE 19. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF SE              
AZ WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM.                                               
LOOKS LIKE APRIL WILL COME IN WITH AVENGENCE AS A STRONG LATE SEASON            
WINTER STORM IS BREWING IN NEVADA. 00Z ETA/NGM MODEL RUNS REALLY                
DEVELOPS DEEP MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS               
SE AZ. THIS MOISTURE IS SEEN ON GOES-10 SOUNDER PW DATA AND NGM/ETA             
INTIALIZED THIS REAL WELL AND SPREAD THIS HIGH PW VALUE (OVER .50")             
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST TO                
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH BEST DYNAMICS           
OVER OUR AREA. MID-SHIFT WILL HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HOISTING WINTER               
STORM WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO COLD NATURE OF STORM. LATE SEASON             
NATURE OF STORM PUTS POSSIBLE SNOW FALL TOTALS INTO DIFFERENT                   
CATEGORY FOR ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. ETA AND NGM INDICATING THAT             
SNOW FALL TOTALS MAY APPROACH A FOOT ABOVE 6000 FEET. WINDS MAY                 
STILL BE A PROBLEM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTENROON HOURS FROM TUCSON            
EAST BEFORE CLOUDS DEVELOP. JUST ANOTHER THING FOR THE MID-GUY TO               
CONSIDER. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS IN FINE SHAPE AS DAY-SHIFT               
HAS SET UP THE FORECAST NICELY. LOTS OF THINGS FOR THE MID-GUY TO               
CONSIDER AND MOTHER NATURE HOPEFULLY IS NOT PLAYING AN APRIL FOOL               
DAY JOKE ON US 'CUS WE SURELY COULD US THE RAIN AND DAMPEN FIRE                 
DANGERS. TUS 0254. GLUECK                                                       
.TWC...WIND ADVISORY ZONE 19 UNTIL 600 AM THU.                                  
NNNN  az                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
240 PM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN PART OF BIG BEND               
AS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX. SEA BREEZE ALSO EVIDENT OFF                
APALACHEE BAY. THESE FEATURES HAVE MAINTAIN SHRA ACTIVITY ACROSS                
THE BIG BEND MOST OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EVIDENT OUT OVER               
THE GILF. MOST OF THE THUNDER HAS REMAINED IN VLD AREA OF S                     
CENTRAL GA AND FROM MADISON CO FL E INTO THE KJAX CWA. 18Z ETA                  
INDICATES PRECIP HANGING ON INTO THE EVENING AND BEYOND FROM TLH                
EASTWARD.  THE 15Z RUC SHOWED THE LAST OF THE SHRA MVING OUT BY                 
00Z. DESPITE NIL POPS FROM BOTH NGM AND AVN GUIDANCE...MAY NEED TO              
CONSIDER SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR EVENING HOURS FOR EASTERN PORTION               
OF CWA.                                                                         
AFTER PRECIP ENDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DEW POINTS IN               
THE 60S. AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...WINDS              
DROP OFF TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT. AGREE WITH FWC GUIDANCE THAT                   
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE MINS MAY BE              
A BIT LOW FOR TLH CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION.             
AFTER FOG LIFTS...WE/LL HAVE SOME CI CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SCU                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE THAN                     
TODAY...SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH TROUBLE GETTING UP TO GUIDANCE MAX                  
TEMPS WITH MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG SHORE WHERE A SEA BREEZE             
SHOULD KICK IN.                                                                 
SHOULD SEE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH THE FOG FRI NIGHT AND                      
CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE              
GROUND WILL HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY A BIT SO FOG MAY NOT GET AS DENSE.             
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. MAY GET AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON THE             
SEA BREEZE FRONT EITHER DAY. GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD SLT CHC POPS                
FOR SAT...BUT DON/T THINK THREAT IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN ZONES             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
#18                                                                             
NNNN  fl                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
955 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
12Z RUC STILL HOLDS OUT SOME HOPE IN SOUTH FLORIDA FOR CONVECTIVE               
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LAPSE RATE                   
ANALYSES...BUT UPPER SUPPORT IS VERY WEAK AND MOVING (OR ALREADY                
MOVED) OUT. LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE LOWER KEYS IS A GOOD SIGN AND EYW            
DID REPORT SOME TRACE AMOUNTS EARLIER. FROM MODEL                               
SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA ARE IN THE                
LOWER 80S FOR ANYTHING TO BEGIN HAPPENING. CURRENT 20 PERCENT POPS              
SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.                                          
MAX TEMP FORECASTS LOOK OK...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES.             
MARINE...WILL KEEP UP THE SCA FOR SE GA AND NE FL...BUT WILL LOWER              
SCA TO SCEC FROM JUPITER INLET TO BONITA BEACH AS WINDS HAVE                    
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.                                                            
.MIA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER BEACH.                                     
NNNN  fl                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
950 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
KJKL 88D SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AS 5H S/W BEGINS TO EXIT EAST OF         
KY. SHOULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE INTO EARLY AFTN AS LOW LVL                
MOISTURE REMAINS. VIS/IR SAT LOOP HAS LOW CLDNS ALL OVER THE OH VLY             
WITH A FEW BREAKS EVIDENT IN NRN KY. 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LAYER          
MOISTURE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTN BUT DO NOT FORESEE MUCH SUN. WITH             
THIS IN MIND AND SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINING UNDER 10KTS AT SFC...DO NOT           
THINK OUR FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE REACHED. THINKING ABOUT LOWERING A FEW         
DEGREES.WILL WAIT FOR MAJORITY OF RAIN TO EXIT THE STATE B4 UPDATING            
ZONES.                                                                          
WHP                                                                             
NNNN  ky                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
934 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
WILL DO SOME MINOR ADJSTMTS FOR LTST TRENDS...BUMP UP POPS INTO                 
THE CATEGORICAL RNG AND WORD AS PDS OF RAIN...TAPERING OFF W PTN                
AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES. 00Z MDL RUNS INDCD GRTEST MSTR DEPTH AND BEST           
FORCG NOW THRU ABT 18Z...DCRG THRFTR...THEN GRDL CLRG AFT 00Z. HWVR AVN/        
03Z ETA AND LTST RUC HELD ONTO MSTR A BIT LONGER..MORE LIKE THRU 00Z.           
THAT MAY BE MORE RSNBL BASED ON CUR RADAR TRENDS.  ADNLY IF A SFC WV            
DVLPS AS ETA MDL INDCD THAT WUD ALSO TEND TO SLO THE PROGRSN OF PCPN.           
THUS I ALSO LIKE KEEPG A SML CHC INTO THE ERLY EVE HRS AT LEAST ERN             
SXNS AS PER PREV FCST.                                                          
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JLW                                                                             
NNNN  md                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                      
WFNT AT 01/15Z FM NR MSP-GRB LN WITH SLO NWD MOVMNT. BRKS IN CLDS               
SRN PTN OF FA AND S OF WMFNT. FOG DRIZZLE AND LO CLDS NRN PTN OF CWA            
IN COOL SECTOR. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS AREA OF PRECIP WELL W              
OF FA ACRS DAKOTAS APRCHNG WRN MN WHERE MOISTURE FIELDS AND UPWARD              
FORCING IS STRONGEST. THESE DYNAMICS FCST TO REMAIN N AND W OF FA               
THRU THE FIRST PERIOD. WK S/WS ONLY POSITIVE PARAMETER TO SUGGEST               
PSBL PRECIP OVR FA THIS AFTN BUT EFFECTS WILL BE DAMPENED WITH                  
MOVMNT INTO THE STRNG UPPR LVL RDG.                                             
FCST PROBLEM IS MOVMNT OF WMFNT FM WI TWD SRN PTN OF FA. TEMPS S OF             
FNT ALREADY IN MID 50S WITH BKN CLDS. E OR SE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS              
COOL ALNG LK MICH BORDER AREAS THUS DICKINSON AND IRON COUNTY WI                
BORDER AREAS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM FOR AFTN TEMP FCSTS.                           
MRNG 01/12Z RUC SUGGESTS WMFNT TO CONTINUE MOVMNT NWD THRU THIS AFTN            
AND IMPINGE ON WI BORDER AREAS BY 01/21Z WITH 15C SFC TEMP FCST                 
VCNTY IMT. MRNG ZFP UPDATE WILL INTRODUCE THIS FEATURE INTO FCST                
OTRW LTL CHNG TO REMAINDER OF PKG.                                              
JFM                                                                             
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN UPPER/NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
436 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
FORECAST GETTING COMPLICATED BY BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH         
MUCH OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT FOG LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS          
THAT HAD BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT HAVE STALLED          
ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER OF CWA...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVER LAKE            
MICHIGAN AND SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER.  SKIES HAVE GENERALLY              
BECOME CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...WITH CLOUDY            
SKIES OVER EASTERN UPPER.  SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN UPPER           
EARLIER TONIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED.  08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS          
SLIPPED ACROSS THE KEEWENAW AND DOWN TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE...              
ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE WHICH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE SOO AND TURNED              
WINDS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AROUND TO THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES IN VERY            
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BEHIND FRONT ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE         
MAIN PROBLEMS TODAY.                                                            
ETA/NGM GENERALLY SIMILAR IN HANDING SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOL AIR TODAY           
AND LATEST RUC FALLS IN LINE FAIRLY WELL...AVN MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK           
ALTHOUGH ALL THREE SHORT RANGE MODELS GENERALLY LATCH ONTO SAME IDEA OF         
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH.  FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF            
EASTERN UPPER TOWARD MIDDAY...AND REACH CENTRAL LOWER TOWARD EVENING.           
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP BEHIND BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN         
UPPER THIS MORNING...AND FAR NORTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.  EARLY              
MORNING CLEARING POSES SOME PROBLEMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...            
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE            
SURFACE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERCOME...QUESTION IS TO WHAT DEGREE EARLY          
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ERODE LOW CLOUD DECK AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH                
NORTH.  EXPECT THAT MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...BUT WILL          
ALLOW FOR SOME SUN WHICH SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH            
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS            
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND FRONT GENERALLY IN THE 20S/LOW 30S...SO EXPECT          
READINGS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 30S/40S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/FAR                 
NORTHERN LOWER ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE              
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
NEXT PROBLEM IS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.              
FWC/FAN GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE OVERDOING TEMPERATURES IN LIGHT OF                 
UPSTREAM READINGS...LATCHING ONTO STILL FAIRLY WARM THICKNESS VALUES            
(5520+ M) AND 850MB TEMPERATURES (+4 TO +8).  HOW COLD TEMPERATURES             
WILL END UP BEING AS AIR MASS PUSHES SOUTH INTO AREA IS DIFFICULT TO            
SAY...BUT WILL TREND FWC VALUES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES.  THIS WILL KEEP              
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TONIGHT/                 
FRIDAY...WHILE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM           
35-40...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S ON FRIDAY...COOLEST READINGS            
NEAR LAKE HURON.                                                                
AND FINALLY...AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS              
RATHER SHALLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY AOB 750MB ON ALL THREE            
MODELS.  EXPECT TO MAINLY FOG/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS                
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WILL RETAIN A           
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER QG FORCING PROGGED             
INTO THE AREA.  DID MENTION SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR EASTERN            
UPPER TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW               
FREEZING. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER WITH BETTER INSTABILITY OFF           
TO THE WEST/SOUTH. COORDINATED WITH GRR/DTX.                                    
JPB                                                                             
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
300 PM CST THU APR 01 1999                                                      
IN SHORT TERM...FCST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR SE WILL CDFNT MAKE IT.  20Z             
SURFACE ANLYS AND VISIBLE STLT SHOWD IT FROM MIDWAY BTWN YKN AND                
SUX TO NEAR OLU THEN TO SE OF AUH.  LATEST RUC HAD FRONT AROUND AN              
OMA TO BIE LINE BY 06Z...FASTER THAN NGM AND AVN. ETAS SOLUTION IS              
CLOSER TO THE RUC AND SEEMS TO BE A LTL BETTER THAN AVN AND NGM AND             
WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION THIS FCST PD.  SFC WINDS               
QUITE GUSTY BHND FNT WITH TEMPS IN 30S AND 40S FROM ONL-BBW NWWD.               
WL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE ALNG AND NW OF FRONT TONIGHT BASED ON             
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS.  GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM.  WOULD LOOK               
FOR LOW CLDS TO EITHER DVLP IN MSTR AXIS AHEAD OF FNT LATER TNGT OR             
FILL IN BHND FNT WITH LACK OF SFC HTG.                                          
BETTER 850 MB DWPTS HAVE PROBABLY GONE THE WAY OF THE LOW CLDS...               
BASICALLY PIVOTING NEWD TO THE NE OF OMA-TQE AND HAS SHIFTED BTR LOW            
LVL MSTR AXIS E AHD OF CDFNT.  APPEARS FORCING NOT STRONG ENOUGH                
TONIGHT TO OVERCOME MID LVL CAP SHOWN ON OAX 12Z SOUNDING AND WL                
LEAVE MOST OF AREA DRY TNGT.  WL KEEP SLGT CHC THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST            
NWRN FCST AREA WELL NW OF FRONT.                                                
BEYOND TNGT FCST PROBLEM CONTINUES WITH FRONTAL LOCATION AND THEN PCPN          
CHANCES.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO CHANGE VERY SLOWLY AS UPR LOW MOVS             
SLOWLY E/NE.  MODELS DO SUGGEST JET SEGMENT LIFTING OUT OF SWRN U.S.            
INTO CNTRL PLAINS FRI AFTN INTO SAT MORNING.  THIS COULD CAUSE A                
WEAK SFC REFLECTION ALNG FNT FRI...AS PER ETA...BUT WITH FNT OVER               
FAR SERN NEBR INSTEAD OF FTHR NW WHICH NGM SUGGESTED.  INFLUX OF                
MSTR INTO BOUNDARY...SFC LOW TRACKING ALONG IT...JET SEGMENT WEAKENING          
CAP AND PROVIDING LARGER SCALE LIFT...AND MODERATELY STEEP 700-500              
MB LAPSE RATES FCST BY MODELS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE                      
PRECIPITATION MUCH OF AREA FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN AS EARLY AS FRI          
AFTN.  WL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF AREA FRI AFTN AND GO LIKELY             
FRI NGT.  WL TREND PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SAT BUT LEAVE IT CLOUDY AT               
THIS TIME.                                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...WOULD EXPECT SOME EROSION OF LOW CLDS SERN NEBR ON               
FRI...AS WHAT HAPPENED BHND FNT TDAY.  WILL TREND AREA FM OMA TO LNK            
AND SEWD AS EITHER PTSUNNY FRI OR BECOMING PTSUNNY.  OVERALL                    
CONFIDENCE OF FRONTAL POSITION NOT HIGH BUT WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT             
FWC GUIDANCE 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST AREAS THRU PD EXCEPT CLOSER TO                
GUID TNGT/FRI SERN NEBRASKA.                                                    
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
CHERMOK                                                                         
NNNN  ne                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1120 AM CST THU APR 01 1999                                                     
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION AND LOW LVL            
CLOUD TRENDS.  STLT SHOWD LOW CLDS LIFTING RAPIDILY NEWD WITH CLRG              
LINE APPROACHING OMA AT 17Z.  LATEST RUC CLRS THE LOW CLDS OUT OF               
ECNTRL NEBR AND WRN IA ZONES AND BRINGS 15 DEG C 850 MB TEMP TO OMA.            
WITH GUSTY S SFC WNDS AND SW 850 MB WNDS...THESE TEMPS SHOULD MIX               
OUT TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH ARND 80 AS FAR NE AS OMA AND ADJUSTED               
FCST TO REFLECT THIS.                                                           
CDFNT HAS PASSED THRU ONL WITH TEMP THERE IN MID 40S AT 17Z AND NW              
WND GUSTING OVR 25 MPH.  ALTHOUGH FNT COULD MODIFY AS IT MOVS INTO              
AREA WITH LESS CLDS...MENTIONED FALLING TEMPS 3 NWRN COUNTIES IN OAX            
CWA AND ADJUSTED LOW TNGT THERE.                                                
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
CHERMOK                                                                         
NNNN  ne                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1011 AM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                      
UPPER VORT AND SFC MOIST CONV BNDRY CAUSING SHRA DEVLPMNT ACROSS CENT SC        
SW INTO S CENT GA. ISEN LIFT PCPN PUSHING E THRU N CST. 12Z RUC II CONT         
TO INDICATE UPPER VORT MOVG ACROSS STATE TODAY...OVERHEAD CAE 18Z               
PUSHING TO N CST BY 21Z. DRYING EXPECTED ALOFT...INDICATED BY MODELS AND        
VAPOR IMAGERY. AS UPPER VORT/ISEN LIFT PUSH E TOD...TREND FOR BEST RA           
COVERAGE TO PUSH EAST THRU THIS MORN. SFC BNDRY SHOWING LITTLE                  
MOVEMENT...LOW LVL MOIST WILL REMAIN. CANT RULE OUT SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA           
OVR CAE CWA WITH MODELS INDICATING RESPECTABLE LI/TT INDICES THIS AFT           
WITH TEMPS REACHING CONV TEMP.                                                  
.CAE...NONE                                                                     
MILLER                                                                          
NNNN  sc                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1021 AM CST THU APR 1 1999                                                      
DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM SANDERSON TO MIDLAND TO EAST OF LUBBOCK AT                
16Z. DEW POINTS IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 60S.            
MOISTURE FAIRLY SHALLOW AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS              
AFTERNOON...WHERE CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MODIFYING                   
FORECAST SOUNDING. STILL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED BY WARM             
AIR ALOFT. RUC MODEL HAS GRADIENT DECREASING BY MID AFTERNOON...BUT             
SHOULD STILL SEE WINDS REACH FORECAST SPEEDS IN EARLY AFTERNOON.                
SENDING OUT WRKSJ1 TO REMOVE MORNING REFERENCES.                                
04                                                                              
NNNN  tx                                                                        

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 AM CST THU APR 01 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS              
AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  KCRP/KBRO        
88D VWP AND 06Z RUC ARE SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN SECTIONS           
THIS MORNING SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOG PROBLEMS THIS MORNING.  00Z              
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING GOOD LOW LEVEL WARM                
ADVECTION TO SET UP TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST               
U.S.  IR ALREADY SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ABOUT TO ENTER RIO                
GRANDE PLAINS AND THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY.  DESPITE            
THE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MIXING TODAY.                
WINDS MAY STILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE             
COAST...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW.  WILL STAY NEAR                  
FORECASTED MAX TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                          
LONG TERM...MID LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS                  
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OUT WEST.  PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT                    
FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED -RASH ACTIVITY ACROSS NW PARTS OF FA                     
NEAR H7 THTE RIDGE ON FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...AM RELUCTANT TO INTRODUCE              
POPS (>= 20 PCT) AT THIS TIME.  MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY IN COASTAL             
ZONES ON FRIDAY AS ETA AND AVN SHOWING TIGHT GRADIENT OVER NEARSHORE            
WATERS.                                                                         
EXTENDED...WEATHER WILL BE UNSETLLED THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT                
WEEK AS MRF SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY.                
UPPER TROF TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND                     
TUESDAY.  WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS AND STORMS.                                                             
MARINE...WITH GRADIENT CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE            
COASTAL WATERS...WILL MENTION SCEC FOR COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS.  SCA            
LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                         
CRP EE 079/069 080/069 080 72001                                                
VCT EE 077/065 079/067 080 72001                                                
LRD EE 083/068 084/069 085 72001                                                
AP...72 (SYN)                                                                   
ML...73 (MESO)                                                                  
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
NNNN  tx                                                                        

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
1120 PM MST WED MAR 31 1999                                                     
SORRY THIS IS LATE.  BEEN REAL BUSY.  UPGRADED AND EXTENDED MOST                
ADVISORIES TO WARNINGS FOR THE 900 PM UPDATE...AND HAVE VERIFIED                
SEVERAL SO FAR.  HAVE A HUNCH THIS COULD BE A BIG STORM.  MODELS                
KEEP UPPER LOW OVER STATE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT DIFFER ON                      
POSITION.  RUC CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IN SOUTHEAST             
IDAHO FOR LATER TONIGHT WHICH IMPLIES SOUTH WINDS IN NORTHERN UTAH.             
NOT SURE IF THIS WILL OCCUR.  AVN TAKES UPPER LOW INTO SOUTHERN UTAH            
BY EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD CUT OFF PRECIP IN THE NORTH...BUT LOW             
RETRACKS NORTH BY AFTERNOON...SO AS WITH ALL CUT OFF TYPE                       
LOWS...WE'LL HAVE TO BE PATIENT.                                                
SLC ++66 CDC +865  BURCH                                                        
.SLC...HVY SNOW WRNG MOST CWFA MTNS AND HIGHER VALLEYS.  SNOW                   
ADVISORY LOWER VALLEYS IN NRN CWFA AND CENT UT.                                 
NNNN  ut                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
315 PM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
AWIPS 88D COMPOSITE/LIGHTNING PLOT INDICATED THAT MAIN BATCH OF RAIN            
WAS OFF TO THE EAST. SCT SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE           
AREA OF LAPS 17Z LI OF MINUS 2...CAPES OF 600 J/KG AND NEAR SURFACE             
REL VORT MAX HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND SHOULD BE GONE BY THIS EVENING.            
HOWEVER...SECOND AREA OF SCT SHOWERS IN SERN PORTION OF CWA MAY                 
STILL BE AROUND THIS EVENING AND SMALL POP MAY BE INSERT IN SE ZONES            
DEPENDING ON LATEST RADAR PIX. VSBL SAT IMAGE PICTURE DISPLAYED SOME            
BREAKS IN CLOUDS ESP IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF RNK CWA. REVIEW OF THE              
MM5 SOUTHEAST SHOWED RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WAA PCPN                 
HEADING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING END OF PERIOD. THE AWIPS 500MB              
COMBO OF AVN...NGM...ETA AND RUC SHOWED TROF PIVOTS EAST...THEN                 
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS FA AS LOW CENTER CURVES ITSELF OUT IN THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS BY 48 HOURS. MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT OPINIONS            
ON WEAK PULSES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE. REVIEW OF THE MSL           
PRES FIELDS ALSO YIELDED SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF FRONT.                 
ETA/NGM APPEAR TO BE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN            
SYS ASSOCIATED WITH WM FNTL BOUNDRY. THE 85H TEMP REVIEW INDICTED A             
VARIETY OF OPINIONS ON HOW FAR EAST AND HOW QUICK THE PLUS 12 AIR               
MOVES OUR WAY. IN THE LONG RANGE...MRF LOOK ABIT WET AND TRENDED                
PACKAGE TOWARDS EUROPEAN SOLUTION. HAVE A GUD NIGHT.                            
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE                                                                       
NC...NONE                                                                       
WV...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
NNNN  va                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
927 PM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
PER 21Z RUC SBN SKEWT SHWNG SATRTD LWLVLS OVERNIGHT AND SHARP INVRSN            
BLO 8H AND 3.9 IR SHOWING CLRG INTO ERN IL HALTING ITS PROGRESS WL GO           
WITH CLDY WORDING TONIGHT. AREAS OF BR WITH WDSPRD 1-3SM XPCTD 08Z-             
12Z BUT LACK OF CLRG SHOULD PRECLUDE WDPSRD DNS FG. WL GO WITH A                
SMALLER TMP RANGE IN IN ZNS...DOWN TO NEAR CRNT DPS OR LWR 50S FOR              
LOWS TONIGHT. INCRSD 8H FLOW SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER CHC TO LOSE SOME           
LW CLDS FRI AFTN.                                                               
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
MURPHY                                                                          
NNNN  in                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
915 PM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
SFC ANAL SHOWS A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL WI WITH ENE FLOW ON NORTH              
SIDE OF FRONT KEEPING THE U.P. UNDER CLOUDS THIS EVENING.                       
00Z RUC SHOWS A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE INTO MN OVERNIGHT...BEST VORT                 
ADV/Q-VECT CONV/LIFT TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA                       
OVERNIGHT.  REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SYNOPTIC PRECIP OVER NW MN AND ND              
CORRESPONDING WITH THE AREA OF BEST UVM . MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW              
HIGH LOW LEVEL RH TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT UVM NEAR THE            
SFC.  THIS TO CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...WITH THE WEAK              
UVM ENOUGH TO AID IN PATCHY -DZ/FZDZ FORMATION.  PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS ON     
TARGET WITH THESE FEATURES. TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER PORTION OF             
MIN FCST RANGE...GIVEN CLOUDS AND WIND...DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THEN            
A COUPLE DEGREE DROP THUS PREVIOUS TEMPS LOOKING GOOD. WILL ONLY                
UPDATE WESTERN MOST ZONES TO ADD PATCHY-FZDZ WHICH WILL CORRESPOND              
WITH THE CURRENT MIN TEMP FCST OF 30 TO 35.                                     
AREA RIVER STILL SHOW SLIGHT RISES FROM SNOW MELT...BUT ALL WELL BLO            
FLOOD LEVELS.                                                                   
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
LULOFS                                                                          
NNNN  mi                                                                        

MINNESOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
900 PM CST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS WEAKENING LOW NEAR MVE WITH CLEARLY DEFINED              
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THRU GYL-HCD-MSP. COLD FRONT SURGING EAST             
ACRS SRN MN ATTM...WITH 1 TO 1.5 MB/HR RISES BEHIND IT IN STG CAA.              
NEW RUC KEEPS SFC LOW TRACKING NEWD OVRNT AND FILLING...WHICH SEEMS             
REASONABLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND EXIT OF BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED              
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NRN MN. 00Z RAOBS SHOW SIGNIFCANT CAP OVR                
AREA TONIGHT. WILL DOWNGRADE POPS AND TWEAK ZFP FOR PASSAGE OF SFC              
FEATURES.                                                                       
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
NNNN  mn                                                                        

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
957 PM PST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN                   
CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG                  
DISTURBANCE ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWEST              
ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE            
THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT...AND SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET. OTHERWISE...             
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING              
HIGHER TERRAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE THIS LOW                  
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER.           
DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BISECTING COLD UPPER LOW AND OUR              
AREA FROM THE N-NE THROUGH THE S-SW CONTINUES AS THE MAIN PLAYER THIS           
EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL VORT HAS SPUN UP ON THE SOUTH END OF              
THIS SHEAR AXIS MOVING ONSHORE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.                     
INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS SENDING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO            
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA AT THIS TIME WITH RECENT               
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING CONSIDERABLE ENHANCEMENT. YUMA               
RADAR VERIFIES INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS DESERTS SPREADING INTO           
WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA. NEW ETA AND AVN AGREE SENDING STRONG VORT INTO            
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA JUST BEFORE 12 UTC WITH STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL                
VELOCITY ACROSS SRN MOHAVE COUNTY REVERSING THEN TO DOWNWARD BETWEEN            
12 AND 15 UTC. NEW ETA QPF NOT FAR OFF FROM RUC WITH 3 HOURLY TOTALS            
GREATER THAN 0.10 INCH SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FROM 06-12 UTC.  SO              
EVENT LIKELY ALREADY JUST STARTING...BUT WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A             
SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT FOR 2 TO 4                
INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 4000 FEET AND 6 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS            
OF THE HUALAPAI'S.                                                              
OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE RULING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS STRONG VORT             
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND               
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA.  MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW TO THE S-SW INTO           
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL                  
CONTINUING BASED ON SATELLITE AND THE FEW SURFACE REPORTS RECEIVED.             
LARGE SCALE ZONE UPDATES TO THE FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THESE           
CHANGES. SOME BLENDING INTO THE SECOND PERIOD OF THE ZONES...BUT                
OVERALL MADE RELATIVELY FEW CHANGES PERIODS 2-4.  MAC                           
.LAS...A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY.           
       CHECK WITH THE LATEST RNOWSWLAS FOR DETAILS.                             
NNNN  nv                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
830 PM EST THU APR 1 1999                                                       
CURRENT...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA AND BY THE COASTAL             
WATERS FORECAST ISSUANCE I SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL MENTION OUT THE               
MENTION OF POPS.                                                                
21Z RUC SHOWING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST AND MATCHES               
FAIRLY CLOSELY TO WATER VAPOR AND WITH REALITY (PCPN AT 01Z). ON THE            
CLOUD AND FOG FRONT...THE CLOUD PRODUCT (11-3.9 MICRON) SHOWS THAT              
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 0045Z WERE EAST OF A CHS TO FAY LINES.  THUS                
WILL CHANGE CLOUD COVER IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT              
FOG TO BECOME A PROBLEM WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE...LIGHT                
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.                                                       
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
HAWKINS                                                                         
NNNN  nc                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
FCST CONCERNS ARE PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS THRU FCST PERIOD.                    
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEEP UPPER TROF           
WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN STATES. DOWNSTREAM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT             
WILL CONTINUE INTO UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FORECAST PROBLEMS         
WILL REVOLVE AROUND SHORTWAVES EJECTING NE OUT OF WESTERN TROF.                 
ONE SHORTWAVE HEADING NNE THROUGH NW MN ATTM. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE         
AND INVERTED TROF REFLECTED NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN. SFC LOW LOCATED           
JUST SW OF KMPX. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW EAST ACROSS CNTRL WI         
INTO N LWR MI. N OF STATIONARY FRONT...WAA AND UVM...WITH DRY MID               
LEVELS AS SHOWN ON 00Z KGRB SOUNDING...RESULTING IN AREAS OF -DZ ACROSS         
MUCH OF FA. TO OUR SW...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE HAS TRIGGERED SMALL BKN           
LINE OF -SHRA AND EVEN -TSRA ACROSS ECNTRL MN AND NW WI. 00Z MODELS AND         
06Z RUC INDICATE BEST FORCING AS SHOWN BY 850-500MB QVEC CONV WILL MOVE         
W/NW OF FA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOSE ENOUGH AND BASED ON LATEST             
RADAR TRENDS WILL INTRODUCE SCT MORNING -SHRA FOR W FA.                         
AS LIFT EXITS FA LATE MORNING...-DZ WILL END BUT LOW OVERCAST WILL              
REMAIN. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE E TO SE THIS AFTN AS INVERTED           
TROFING DEVELOPS INTO UPPER MI. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT             
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NCNTRL. LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES MID 50S AT         
KESC. WITH FLOW DEVELOPING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...50S OUT OF THE                
QUESTION FROM KISQ TO KMNM AND WILL CUT GUIDANCE 10 TO 15 DEGREES.              
EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR LK MICHIGAN AS WELL WITH MOIST FLOW                  
TRAVERSING COLD WATERS.                                                         
AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF UPPER AIR PATTERN...MODELS DIFFERENT IN             
TIMING OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TO EJECT NE TONIGHT/SAT. ETA STRONGEST AND             
QUICKEST WHILE NGM SLOWEST AND AVN A COMPROMISE. WILL TREND TOWARD AVN          
AND HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP MENTION TONIGHT. WILL BRING IN CHC POPS FOR          
SAT...BEST CHC WEST CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. NE/E SFC FLOW TO DOMINATE         
SAT SO TEMPS COOLER AGAIN NCNTRL.                                               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
NNNN  mi                                                                        

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 AM CST FRI APR 02 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...00Z CRP SOUNDING WAS SATURATED TO 850 MB AS STRONG LOW             
LEVEL THTE ADVECTION ON THURSDAY CONTRIBUTED TO LOTS OF LOW LEVEL               
CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.  -DZ HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE                
AREA OVERNIGHT SO WILL MENTION FOR THIS MORNING.  ETA AND 03Z RUC               
MAINTAINING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  WEAK                   
IMPULSES IN STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE MAINTAINING ENHANCED             
CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MEXICO. AS IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS                
SOUTH TEXAS...SOME PATCHY -RA WILL DEVELOP SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS                
OVER MUCH OF AREA TODAY.  SIGNIFICANT MIXING LOOKS DOUBTFUL TODAY               
AND WITH 88D VWP SHOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 30 KNOTS...WILL HOLD OFF            
ON WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW AND GO WITH CAUTION ON LAKES.  WILL STAY               
CLOSE TO MAX TEMPERATURES ON PREV PACKAGES.                                     
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING LONG WAVE UPPER              
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND            
IT.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICS TO STAY WELL NORTH WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY              
APPROACHING NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA LATE                    
SATURDAY.  EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY              
BUT LAYER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM ETA AND AVN SHOWING A PRETTY               
STRONG CAP OVER AREA ON SATURDAY.  OTHERWISE CAPE/LI FORECASTS ARE              
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION LATE SATURDAY.  HARD TO ARGUE WITH               
CURRENT POP FORECASTS SO WILL LET THESE NUMBERS RIDE.                           
EXTENDED...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET TO APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS             
AND THINK THAT THIS COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY               
OVER CROSSROADS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  LAYERED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS  
STILL INDICATING A GOOD CAP OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.               
LATEST MRF CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS IN MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST            
OF THE COASTAL BEND ON MONDAY NIGHT.  BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...                 
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                           
MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS                 
TODAY SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.                                 
CRP CE 078/071 081/070 083 72222                                                
VCT CE 076/069 081/069 082 72223                                                
LRD EE 085/070 088/070 088 72211                                                
AP...72 (SYN)                                                                   
ML...73 (MESO)                                                                  
.CRP...SCA BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275                   
NNNN  tx                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
330 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
TRANQUIL NIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS MAKES THE FULL MOON LOOK RATHER                 
EERIE.  FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALMOST STAGNANT.  STILL A 3-6             
KT WRLY WIND COMING OFF THE ERN SLOPES AND THIS IS KEEPING THE FOG              
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.  IR FOG CURVE DOES NOT SHOW ANYTHING              
WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A COUPLE OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING            
VSBYS AOB 1/4.  COORDINATED WITH AKQ AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE              
OF ANY DENSE FOG ADV...UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE.                                    
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN OVER THE U.S TO PERSIST THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.  DEEP TROF IN THE WEST IS COMPLIMENTED BY SHARP RIDGE IN               
THE EAST.  WITH RIDGE OVHD DON'T EXPECT TOO MUCH EXCITEMENT THE NEXT            
48 HOURS.  COORDINATED WITH WBC CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND             
WE ARE IN PRETTY MUCH AGREEMENT THAT POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW IN THE NEAR            
TERM.  ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA IS MOIST BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL              
WILL BE LIMITED BY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AND CAPPING INVERSION.  A                
LOOK AT THE RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 18 UTC THIS AFTN AND THERE IS A STRONG            
CAP BETWEEN 700-800 MB.  CAPES FOR OUR CWA ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF             
500-700 J/KG AND WITH LACK OF LIFTING MECHANISM DON'T SEE ANYTHING              
THAT WOULD WARRANT MORE THAN A 20 POP.                                          
FOR TONIGHT SFC WINDS BECOME SERLY.  WITH BLYR MOISTURE RELATIVELY              
HIGH...THINK TONIGHT MAY BE THE BETTER NIGHT FOR STRATUS AND FOG.               
LL FLOW WILL POOL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SO THICK            
FOG AND OR STRATUS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY MORNING.  THE ETA MODEL DOES             
SPIT OUT A LITTLE PRECIP SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF                   
MENTIONING ANY ATTM.  PER DSCN WITH AKQ...MOST LIKELY METEOR WOULD              
BE DRIZZLE.                                                                     
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE                                                                       
NC...NONE                                                                       
WV...NONE.                                                                      
PM                                                                              
NNNN  va                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
845 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
QUICK LOOKS THIS EARLY AM AT THE 09Z AND 12Z RUC AND LAST NIGHT'S               
03Z MESO ETA INDICATE GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH SEA BREEZE                 
FRONTS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH                         
FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. INSTABILITY AND                  
MOISTURE SEEM MARGINAL BUT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON                     
CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURES MID 80S TO NEAR 90 (CLEWISTON HAD 91 ON            
THURSDAY) IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES.                                           
50                                                                              
.MIA...NONE.                                                                    
NNNN  fl                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1110 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                      
PER 12Z RUC MODEL AND OBS VIS SATELLITE TREND THIS AM... WILL UPDATE            
ZONES SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR PARTIAL SUN THIS PM AND WARMER TEMPS.              
MUCH BETTER MIXING TDA VS YDA AND UPSTREAM RAOBS THIS AM SUPPORT LOW            
80S WITH FULL SUN SO WILL TWEAK ACCORDINGLY.                                    
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
TEH                                                                             
NNNN  in                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER ILLINOIS                  
WHILE THICKER CLOUDS IN WRN INDIANA WARMING.  RUC DATA SHOWS RH                 
FIELDS DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD AGREE WITH SATELLITE                   
TRENDS EXPECTED.                                                                
THUS WILL UPDATE ZONES TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
TWEAK TEMPERATURES IN SOME/MOST OF OUR ZONES TO MIDDLE 70S.                     
.IND...NONE.                                                                    
TUCEK                                                                           
NNNN  in                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
950 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
WILL UPDATE FORECAST AROUND 15Z TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS FOG             
FINALLY BURNING OFF. HOWEVER...PARTS OF ERN KY HAVE CIGS BETWEEN 3-             
4KFT. WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH KY THIS MORNING PRODUCING                 
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS IN SCNTL KY. 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME MOISTURE                
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK UVM THROUGH 18Z MOVING FROM SCNTL KY INTO NE KY.           
MID AND HI CLDS PREVALENT IN WRN KY SW INTO WRN TN STREAMING TO THE NE.         
THERE WILL BE PEEKS OF SUNSHINE TODAY BUT THERE WILL BE MORE CLDS THAN          
SUN SO WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR BECMG MOSTLY CLOUDY. WILL ADD A FEW             
SPRINKLES TO OUR WRN ZONES AS WELL.                                             
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW SO NO PLAN TO CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST               
HIGHS.                                                                          
WHP                                                                             
NNNN  ky                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1115 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                      
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP SOME FOR THIS AFTERNOON.             
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU QUICKLY FILLING IN BREAKS IN THE              
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LACK OF CU TO OUR WEST LINES              
UP FAIRLY WELL WITH CU SCHEME UTILIZING THE 12Z RUC DATA. THIS                  
POINTS TO CONTINUED CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH             
THE DAY... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WHEN LOOKING AT MODIFIED 12Z                  
SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA. IN ADDITION... MID AND HIGHER LEVEL                  
CLOUDS WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH            
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE               
PEAKS OF SUNSHINE... MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE. SO...                
WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. AS FOR PCPN... WILL                    
CONTINUE TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AS WELL. FEEL CAP IN PLACE             
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT            
WAVE WILL ERODE THE CAP SOME... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW DEEP                    
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION... THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVENT             
ANY GOOD LAKE BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE FROM SETTING UP AND HELPING                  
THINGS.                                                                         
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP SOME HOWEVER... BASED ON               
CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED PEAKS OF HAZY SUN. LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE...             
AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE 03Z ETA AND 12Z RUC POINT             
TO HIGHS OF AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE INLAND PORTION OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. NORTHERN LOCATIONS NEARER THE WARM FRONT WILL BE A BIT                    
COOLER... AS WILL THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES. WILL MOVE MOST                       
TEMPERATURES UP A CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THINGS.                               
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1120 AM.                                                
TRH                                                                             
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
745 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
FOG RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z ACROSS MUCH OF FA. MANY OBSERVING              
LOCATIONS NOW REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM OR LESS NOW. ONLY AREAS           
NOT SEEING MUCH FOG ARE ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE LIGHT E WIND IS        
DOWNSLOPING.                                                                    
09Z RUC INDICATES WEAKENING SFC LOW NORTH OF KMSP WILL TRACK TOWARD SW          
UPPER MI TODAY. THIS SUPPORTED BY 03Z MESOETA. STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS          
CNTRL WI MAY DRIFT N TOWARD UPPER MI...BUT NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT TO             
BORDER. MOIST LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH SFC CONV N OF FRONT SHOULD               
MAINTAIN FOG ACROSS MUCH OF FA TODAY. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR         
THIS MORNING FROM KEWEENAW PENINSULA S AND E ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL UPPER         
MI.                                                                             
.MQT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ001-003>005-010>014.                  
ROLFSON                                                                         
NNNN  mi                                                                        

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1025 AM CST THU APR 2 1999                                                      
MORNING ANALYSES INDICATE THAT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LOAD UP FOR SOME            
WEEKEND FIREWORKS. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR WORDING ADJUSTMENTS.             
12Z RUC PRODUCES RAPID DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS                   
AFTERNOON WITH 70-80% MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. CAPES APPROACH 3000             
WITH CAP WEAKENING TO LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES             
GREATER THAN 8C. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE ACTED UPON BY AN EMBEDDED               
SHORTWAVE/JET STREAK AT 300-200MB SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH FOR                
ANY DEVELOPMENT THERE THAT COULD LATER TRACK INTO NORTHWEST MS.                 
OTHERWISE...FIRST SHOT WITH SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE SUPPORT SHOULD                
COME IN LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.                                           
.JAN...                                                                         
 MS...NONE.                                                                     
 LA...NONE.                                                                     
 AR...NONE.                                                                     
NNNN  ms                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1002 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                      
H5 RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH WEAK SFC                
TROF PUSHING OFFSHORE. FOG IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF PER LATEST VIS                
IMAGERY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SFC              
RIDGE AXIS BEHIND THE TROF IS PROGGED BY 12Z RUC TO BUILD SOUTH                 
TODAY AND COULD SEE WINDS GO LIGHT NORTHEAST BY AFTN. MAY MAKE                  
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WIND DIRECTION. WITH ABUNDANT SUN BY NOON                  
EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR. BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS WITH FULL SUN                  
ONGOING TEMP FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                                   
CWF: WILL TWEAK WINDS A BIT BASED ON ABOVE DISC AND REMOVE FOG BUT              
REST OF CWF LOOKS GOOD. VAD WINDS LIGHT NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KFT AND              
WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT THIS AFTN EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. THANKS               
CHS FOR THE COORD.                                                              
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MORGAN                                                                          
NNNN  nc                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
905 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
LOOKING AT ETA AND RUC MODEL SNDGS THIS AM...LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME               
CLOUDS WILL BE HANGING AROUND ALONG THE COAST WITH MORE BREAKS                  
OVR THE CSTL PLAIN. VIS SAT IMAG SHOWING BACK SIDE OF STRATUS DECK              
ERODING RAPIDLY. WITH NELY WIND AT THE SFC...CLOUDS OVR OUTER BANKS             
AND IMMEDIATE COAST WILL TAKE LONGER TO DISSIPATE. CURNT FCST TEMPS             
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH WARMER TEMPS OVR CSTL PLAIN WHERE MORE SUN             
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
MARINE: WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE N WINDS WILL               
SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE NE THIS AFTN. DUE TO LACK OF TIGHT PRES               
GRAD WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT TODAY...10 TO 15 KT.                        
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
ORROCK                                                                          
NNNN  nc                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
940 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
SEEMING A LOT LIKE YESTERDAY AS PLENTY OF CLDS OFF TO THE W...WTH               
NOT TOO MANY BREAKS. CRNT ZFP MTN OF CLD/SUN MIX APPROPRIATE...BUT              
FEAR MORE CLDS THAN SUN MAY REQUIRE BUMPING DOWN HI TMPS ACRS FA. WL            
SEE WHAT NXT HRLYS COME IN AT.                                                  
12Z RUC DATA SHOWING WK S/WV OVR SRN IL TAKING ITS TIME GETTING HERE            
AND MOST OF PCPN ASSOC WTH THIS FEATURE APR NOT HITTING GRND. LIKE              
CRNT WORDING OF CHC SPRINKLES...AS THIS SHUD BE THE MOST OF WHAT TO             
EXPECT WTH MDL SNDG PRETTY DRY ABOVE LLVLS AND NOT UVV TO SUPPORT               
ANYTHING MORE. UNFORTUNATELY...NO CRNT SNDG FOR ILN TO BACK THIS UP.            
MISILN OUT IN A FEW.                                                            
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
NNNN  oh                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
955 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
FOG HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS           
LOW CLOUDS ERODING AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WELL ON THEIR WAY TO                   
FORECAST MAXIMA. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD COME ONSHORE WITH A               
PRETTY GOOD SEABREEZE. MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION                   
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE MAY NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE           
CHANCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN FORECAST.                           
CWF...DO NOT SEE MANY CHNGS FOR UPDATE. WL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG.               
CURRENT OBS SHOW WNDS N/NW. RUC INDICATES NW WND TO BECOME VAR                  
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA.                           
.CHS...                                                                         
.SC...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
/JCI                                                                            
NNNN  sc                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
945 AM EST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK CDFNT ALG NJ CST WITH LOWERG DEW POINTS            
TO N. STGST PRES RISES OVR SRN NEW ENG SUGG FRONT WL CONT TO WORK               
DOWN THE CST TDY. WITH LL FLOW ALREADY N/NE OVR FA...LL MOISTURE WL             
B SLOW TO MIX OUT NR CST. ALSO 09Z RUC TM SECTIONS INDICATING INCRSG            
MID/HI LVL MOISTURE RIDING OVR UPR RDG THIS AFTN. SKY COND FCST A               
BIT TRICKY THIS AFTN...WL LIKELY B SUNNY FOR A TM INLAND AREAS ARND             
MIDDAY THEN INCRSG HI CLDS THIS AFTN. NR CST...LOW CLDS SLOWLY ERODE            
THRU MIDDAY THEN AT LEAST PTSUNNY THIS AFTN. AFTN HIGH TEMPS QUITE              
SUN DEPENDENT WITH STABIL PROGRAM INDICATG FULL SUN TEMPS M70S. WL              
TAPER HIGHS BACK NR CST DUE MR CLD CVR AND ONSHORE FLOW.                        
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WL ENTER FA TNT. WL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN ONSHORE             
FLOW/MARINE INFLUENCE. LOW LVL MOISTURE RMNS HIGH...XPTG MR ST/FG               
FORMATION OVRNGT.                                                               
CWF...N/NE WINDS INCRSG A BIT AS BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES THRU...BUT NOT            
XPTG SCA THIS TM.                                                               
.AKQ...NONE.                                                                    
CULLEN                                                                          
NNNN  va                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1045 AM CST FRI APR 2 1999                                                      
THUNDERSTORM CHCS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FCST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON.          
MODIFIED 12Z GRB SOUNDING INDICATED CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...WITH LI'S          
AROUND -3 IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. A WEAK CAP WAS NOTED BETWEEN        
650 AND 700 MB. 12Z RUC SHOWED THE LFQ OF A H3 JET STREAK MOVG INTO             
NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK VORT MOVG INTO C WI BETWEEN             
21Z AND 00Z. EXPECT THESE FEATURES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK              
THE WEAK CAP. THUS...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE           
1ST PERIOD FCST.                                                                
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY RISEN TO 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN               
PORTION OF MY CWA...BUT MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND FOG HAS HELD             
TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S FARTHER NORTH. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT A                
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOVMT OF THE WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF        
NC/NE WI TO WARM INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP         
LK/BAY AREAS AROUND 50.                                                         
KIECKBUSCH                                                                      
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
NNNN  wi