AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE AREA SHOULD BE GONE BY             
6AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH COLD FRONT ALONG MS RIVER. LATEST ETA AND            
RUC HAVE FRONT THRU IL AND NW IN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. ANY                    
REDEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF FORECAST AREA.            
SOME MORNING SUN BUT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS DEVELOP AS LOW PULLS NE INTO            
WIS. COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DONT SUPPORT            
THUNDER. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT LITTLE            
THREAT OF RAIN AFTER THAT. COOL AIR AND CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST INTO            
WED BUT DESPITE MODERATELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT...DOESNT APPEAR TO BE               
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FEW LIGHT                
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AGAIN WED BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL CONTINUE              
TO KEEP RAIN OUT OF FORECAST. PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS THU NIGHT INTO              
FRI AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. DRYING OUT NICELY              
FOR A GLORIOUS FATHERS DAY WEEKEND.                                             
AFTER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES OUT EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD BE LOTS             
OF SUN AND IT SHOULD WARM UP NICELY THIS MORNING. BUT COOL AIR                  
ADVECTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY            
NORTH AND WEST OF CHICAGO WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN. THEN FAIRLY COOL                
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH WEST WINDS THERE WILL BE NO LAKE              
COOLING TODAY. WINDS TURNING NORTH LATE WED AFTERNOON...THEN LAKE               
BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                  
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT...SEEN AT 500 MB...WILL MOVE EAST TO MICHIGAN             
BY 12 UTC WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A VCSH...SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY...              
IN THE TAF THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR               
IN THE UPPER MICHIGAN. THE FRONT WAS THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT                
16 UTC. SOUNDING FROM ACARS SHOW THE LCL AT 5100 FT TODAY AT ORD.               
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME             
WEST TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL FORECAST AROUND              
15 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE SHRA TRENDS.                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW              
HAD MOVED INTO N CNTRL WI. AT THE SFC...A 997 MB LOW WAS LOCATED                
NEAR THE GARDEN PENINSULA AT 02Z. RADAR INDICATED NMRS SHRA OVER                
MAINLY THE W HLF OF UPR MI WITH 305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE               
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. LONE CLUSTER OF WEAK TSTMS OVER S CNTRL UPR            
MI...VCNTY ELEVATED CAPE OF 300-500 J/KG...PER LAPS SOUNDINGS...HAD             
DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.              
ALTHOUGH EDGE OF DRIER AIR MAY EDGE INTO NW UPPER MI TOWARD                     
DAYBREAK...RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z RUC SUGGEST THAT NMRS/OCNL            
-SHRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LVL LOW SHIFTS TOWARD                  
GEORGIAN BAY. AN ISOLD TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE CNTRL AND              
EAST BUT WITH MINIMAL/FADING INSTABILITY...GOING FCST WITH TSRA ONLY            
THROUGH EVENING...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.                                         
&&                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 445 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005.                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS FCST PACKAGE ARE FOR LINGERING TSTMS THIS               
EVENING AND THEIR TRANSITION TO MAINLY SHWRS OVRNGT. MARINE LAYER               
FOG OVR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT SHORELINE AREA ALSO A CONCERN AS             
SFC FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY.                                                       
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 998 MB LOW NEAR IMT WITH NEARLY STATIONARY               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE EAST ACROSS NRN LK MI THROUGH THE                
STRAITS TO NRN LK HURON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG AND NORTH             
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AREA OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT. AIRMASS              
IN PLACE VERY JUICY WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 60S AND H85 DWPTS ARND            
+11 TO +12 DEG C. INITIAL CELL THAT REDEVELOPED OVER MNM COUNTY                 
EARLIER THIS AFTN SHOWED THE BEST ELEVATED CORE AND HIGHEST VIL                 
DENSITY VALUES (CLOSE TO 3.5) YET GROUND TRUTH YIELDED NO REPORTS OF            
HAIL. SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS APPEARED LESS IMPRESSIVE PER 88D                
SIGNATURES DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT PROVIDED             
BY PROXIMITY OF FAVORABLE UPR LVL JET QUADRANT.                                 
AREA FOR RISK OF ISOLD SVR HAIL CONFINED TO MAINLY SCHOOLCRAFT AND              
LUCE COUNTIES NOW WHERE 79/66 TEMP/DWPT YIELDS ABOUT 1200 J/KG                  
CAPES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE U.P. (MAINLY CNTRL SECTIONS) EXPECT                 
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS (SFC REPORTS INDICATING .5 INCH IN 30 MINUTES)            
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES TO BE THE PRIMARY                
HAZARDS.                                                                        
AS SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE U.P./LAKE MICHIGAN BOUNDARY AND THE UPR             
LOW PULLS EAST BEHIND IT PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO SHWRS AS BETTER                
INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC FORCING DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS             
TNGT AS LOW WILL ONLY REACH NRN LK HURON BY 12Z WED.                            
MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE U.P. INTO WED AND WITH THAT             
WILL CONTINUE SCT SHWRS TIL ABT MID MORNING ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND             
INTO THE MIDDAY ACROSS THE THE REST OF THE WEST AND CNTRL U.P.  BY              
MID AFTERNOON EXPECT INCREASED DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE TO HAVE TAKEN              
HOLD ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE AND EAST COUNTIES WITH CONTINUED SHWR                
CHANCES FROM MNM TO ERY. COOLER AIRMASS (H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO +8 TO            
+10 DEG C) COMBINED WITH LOW LVL TRAJECTORY ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR                
WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS GRADIENT              
TIGHTENS AFTER LOW DEPARTS.                                                     
GFS/NAM CONTINUING RECENT TREND OF DROPPING UPR LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH            
CURRENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD AND MERGING THAT WAVE WITH                  
DEPARTING CUT OFF LOW CAUSING A RETROGRADING TYPE EFFECT AS HEIGHTS             
LOWER AGAIN ACROSS THE ERN U.P. WED NIGHT INTO THURS. AFT A BRIEF               
DRY PERIOD XPECT DEEPER MOISTURE/SHWRS TO WORK BACK WESTWARD INTO               
THE ABOUT THE EAST HALF OF THE U.P. THURS. UKMET SUPPORTING THIS                
SOLN AS WELL. WHILE GFS/NAM HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON DEGREE OF               
COLD AIR AT H85 (NOW ABT +2 TO +3 DEG C INSTEAD OF +1!) FEEL THIS               
CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OVERDONE.  NON THE LESS MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL            
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THURS WITH BRISK NRLY WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR            
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL COOLING ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS.                         
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THURS KICKS LOW TO THE EASTERN            
GRTLKS FRI BRINGING RISING HEIGHTS... SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AND WARMING             
H85 TEMPS.                                                                      
EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORTING             
VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. 5H RDG                  
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER THE AREA ON SAT TO AROUND 580 DAM THEN            
RDG REALLY BECOMES AMPLIFIED LATE MON INTO TUE WITH HEIGHTS OF 590              
DAM OR MORE OVER THE WRN GRT LKS AND MIDWEST. MODEL CONSENSUS                   
INDICATES THAT SUBSIDENCE WARMING WILL BRING 8H TEMPS UP TO AROUND              
10C TO 12C ON SAT AND THEN UP TO 18C OR BETTER ON MON AND TUE AS                
THERMAL RIDGE NOSES IN FM THE PLAINS. MIXING TO 800 MB OFF GFS FCST             
SNDGS FOR MON AND TUE WOULD YIELD INLAND HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW            
90S OVER MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE                
RECORD HIGHS OF UPR 80S CHALLENGED AT NWS MQT FOR THE EARLY PART OF             
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ED F (TNGT-FRI NGT)                                                             
VOSS (SAT-TUE)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LONE THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL               
WATERS AND BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER AND BALD HEAD ISLAND AT TIME...               
APPEAR TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAND BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD              
DIMINISH NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                                                  
STRATUS KEEPING TEMPS FROM RISING MUCH SO FAR TODAY...BUT AS BREAKS             
IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOP...TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S              
WITH ONLY BRUNSWICK CO BEACHES LIKELY TO STAY BELOW 90 DEGREES THIS             
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 100 FOR A            
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                       
STRONG HEATING WILL REALLY MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS                
AFTERNOON WITH CAPES NEARING 3 KFT. AND SO DESPITE A WESTERLY                   
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG TWO                 
SURFACE BASED FEATURES. ONE OF THOSE...THE SEABREEZE WHICH WILL BE              
SHARP...BUT CONFINED TO WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE BEACHES...EXCEPT              
BRUNSWICK CO WHERE IT WILL PENETRATE UP TO 10 MILES INLAND. THE                 
OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM WILL BE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND THIS                   
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALIGNED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 CORRIDOR.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHIFTING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THEM            
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON.                               
LATEST RUC SHOWING MAINLY SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE                   
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 2 TO 3             
FEET SEAS AS LATEST WAVE WATCH SHOWING 3 TO 4 FT AT ILM01 AND ILM02             
AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECT TO SEA 2 FEET NEAR SHORE.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING GIVING            
A WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED AT 7H NORTH OF ILM.             
SHOWERS AT 12Z IN THE VICINITY OF MYR/CRE AND SOUTHWEST OF ILM                  
MOVING EAST. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE IFR CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH AND            
SOUTHEAST AND THINNING.                                                         
IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 13Z THEN VFR AFTER 15Z.             
AFTERWARD...WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF FLO...TEMPO               
MVFR CEILINGS/SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED FROM 18-22Z WITH CB VICINITY. FOR            
THE COASTAL TERMINALS...THE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BUT WILL STAY               
CLOSE TO THE COAST DUE TO WEAK WEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH CAPES IN THE               
2500 J/KG RANGE...THE COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE PREDOMINATE VFR             
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPO MVFR/SHOWERS/CB VICINITY THROUGH 20Z. A DRYING            
TREND INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
WANING WITH TIME SO THINK PRECIPITATION WILL NOT AFFECT THE                     
TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. FOG EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND            
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS.             
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE IFR CEILINGS AT FLO WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR            
THE COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RJD                                                                
AVIATION...MRR                                                                  
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
855 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
A FEW SHOWERS STILL TRYING TO GET GOING RIGHT ALONG FRONT AS IT IS              
PUSHING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO. AS WE ARE NOW STARTING TO                     
COOL...CHANCES OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING WITH FRONT ARE DIMINISHING.               
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY UPDATE FORECAST                
SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED            
AS REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005               
AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                           
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS              
HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BUT HAVE HAD A TOUGH                
TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT SO            
HUNG ON TO SOME EARLY GUSTS. OTHERWISE...COLD POOL BEHIND FRONT                 
SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE                
ACROSS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HANG ON TO A FEW CLOUDS                     
OVERNIGHT ...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN WITH DIURNAL                         
HEATING...SHOULD CU UP PRETTY GOOD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO                
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE            
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.                                     
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.  TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE               
INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY.  APPEARS                   
GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE                
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS              
OF 3000 J/KG.  TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING                  
NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE                 
THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR                
ENTIRE FCST AREA.                                                               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA.  BNDRY WILL                  
SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z.  WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN              
TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71.  MAY                
BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                    
SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z.  PCPN                
SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST              
OF REGION.  NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL               
GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                               
UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN                 
FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.  MID LVL                  
S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN.  THIS              
COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP.  BEST SHOT AT                
PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE               
LOCATIONS.  LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY                      
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  12Z NAM INDCG 500-               
1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS.  PCPN WILL                
END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF                
REGION.  UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH                     
ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN.  LESS MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN.                  
INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR              
THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH                   
THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA.                                        
TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM                
TEMPS.  FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM.  HIGHS IN U70S               
TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD                
POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS.  LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO                  
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO                 
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  MAINTAINED A               
20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR               
LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION.  DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF                    
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO              
GRT LKS AND OH VLY.  MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG               
UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR                       
MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD              
INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG               
500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M.  IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A              
RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS               
FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S.                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FA ATTM. A FEW SHOWERS              
HAVE TRIED TO REDEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF FRONT BUT HAVE HAD A TOUGH                
TIME SUSTAINING THEMSELVES. WINDS ARE A LITTLE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT SO            
HUNG ON TO SOME EARLY GUSTS. OTHERWISE...COLD POOL BEHIND FRONT                 
SHOULD PUSH EAST INTO AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE                
ACROSS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HANG ON TO A FEW CLOUDS                     
OVERNIGHT ...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN WITH DIURNAL                         
HEATING...SHOULD CU UP PRETTY GOOD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO                
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE            
IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.  TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE               
INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY.  APPEARS                   
GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE                
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS              
OF 3000 J/KG.  TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING                  
NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE                 
THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR                
ENTIRE FCST AREA.                                                               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA.  BNDRY WILL                  
SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z.  WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN              
TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71.  MAY                
BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                    
SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z.  PCPN                
SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST              
OF REGION.  NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL               
GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                               
UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN                 
FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.  MID LVL                  
S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN.  THIS              
COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP.  BEST SHOT AT                
PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE               
LOCATIONS.  LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY                      
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  12Z NAM INDCG 500-               
1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS.  PCPN WILL                
END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF                
REGION.  UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH                     
ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN.  LESS MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN.                  
INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR              
THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH                   
THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA.                                        
TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM                
TEMPS.  FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM.  HIGHS IN U70S               
TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD                
POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS.  LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO                  
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO                 
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  MAINTAINED A               
20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR               
LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION.  DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF                    
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO              
GRT LKS AND OH VLY.  MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG               
UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR                       
MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD              
INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG               
500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M.  IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A              
RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS               
FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S.                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.  TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE               
INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY.  APPEARS                   
GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE                
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS              
OF 3000 J/KG.  TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING                  
NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE                 
THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR                
ENTIRE FCST AREA.                                                               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA.  BNDRY WILL                  
SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z.  WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN              
TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71.  MAY                
BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                    
SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z.  PCPN                
SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST              
OF REGION.  NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL               
GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                               
UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN                 
FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.  MID LVL                  
S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN.  THIS              
COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP.  BEST SHOT AT                
PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE               
LOCATIONS.  LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY                      
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  12Z NAM INDCG 500-               
1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS.  PCPN WILL                
END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF                
REGION.  UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH                     
ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN.  LESS MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN.                  
INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR              
THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH                   
THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA.                                        
TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM                
TEMPS.  FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM.  HIGHS IN U70S               
TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD                
POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS.  LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO                  
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO                 
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  MAINTAINED A               
20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR               
LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION.  DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF                    
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO              
GRT LKS AND OH VLY.  MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG               
UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR                       
MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD              
INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG               
500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M.  IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A              
RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS               
FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S.                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS TAF SITES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO            
DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER                
THIS TIME.                                                                      
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
947 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VERY QUIET WEATHER... FOR A CHANGE... IS THE RULE ACROSS OKLAHOMA               
AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AT THE MOMENT... THE FORECAST SEEMS               
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                            
THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THAT THERE ARE CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE TEXAS               
PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF                 
MID-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS LIFT                
INCREASING OVERNIGHT... AND SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL CAPE TO SUPPORT              
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. WITH THIS IN                 
MIND... WE MAY ADD 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND                
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THE POST-MIDNIGHT PERIOD... DEPENDING ON                
FURTHER RESEARCH AND COORDINATION. WE WILL UPDATE TEMPORAL WORDING              
IN THE TEXT ZONE FORECAST WHETHER OR NOT WE ADD POPS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 216 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...FAIRLY TRANQUIL WX ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE               
OF CDFNT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE FCST               
DRY TONIGHT WITH MAIN PRECIP THREAT REMAINING TO THE S AND W OF                 
THE FA. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE               
MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS                 
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AS LOW LVL S TO SELY FLOW RETURNS MOISTURE               
NWD AND WK S/W MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ENHANCES LIFT. WILL KEEP                 
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS                   
STRENGTHENING CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT TSTMS CHANCES FRTHR SW. LOOKS               
LIKE SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS NWLY FLOW PATTERN                   
CONTINUES ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW FAR SOUTH                    
STORMS WOULD TRACK. LATER IN THE WEEK UPR RDG CONTINUES TO                      
AMPLIFY MAKING IT LESS LIKELY STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN TO THE NW WOULD MAKE IT THIS FAR SE. THUS WILL LEAVE FCST               
DRY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                      
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/20                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS...APPEARS SURFACE COLD                  
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN              
HEARTLAND. MAIN MCS CORE WITH THE HIGHEST LIGHTNING FREQUENCY HAS               
SHIFTED TO A POSITION ON THE WESTERN NOLAN COUNTY LINE JUST SOUTH               
OF INTERSTATE 20.                                                               
SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY A              
CATEGORY AND TO ADJUST POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR.                
KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING              
ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX              
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                           
ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.                 
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON              
TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT               
FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS              
DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING                 
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS                  
VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE                 
NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO               
VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE                    
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS                
WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR                
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW                     
BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL               
AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN              
BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST                     
EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A                   
SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING                     
SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE               
BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS                     
BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE.               
BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING               
RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START                
TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW                 
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE                  
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE              
NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY                 
THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND                   
UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE                 
100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND                            
MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS                    
LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE                  
MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE               
EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND                
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD                   
COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.                         
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1105 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING ANVIL WARMING DURING THE LAST HOUR.                
KDYX WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW FORMING              
ALONG A SWEETWATER TO ANSON LINE. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX              
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY                
FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT BEST POPS                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
THIS MORNING. THEN...SHIFT TO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE                  
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                           
ALSO...ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY.                 
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND NOON              
TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 211 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TRUE COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF I-20 EARLY THIS MORNING WITH OUT               
FLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF I-20. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS              
DISSIPATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAIL END OF THE COMPLEX MOVING                 
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS ABOUT TO GO THROUGH BROWN COUNTY. NAM IS                  
VERIFYING THE BEST THIS MORNING AND WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS THE                 
NAM THIS FORECAST. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO RE-FIRE ALONG THE                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT THIS MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONCHO               
VALLEY AND THE HEART LAND. IN ADDITION...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE                    
FRONT/WIND SHIFT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND RE-DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS                
WELL. INITIALLY THOUGH ABOUT TAKING POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR                
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT WITH OUTFLOW                     
BOUNDARIES AND LITTLE TO NO CAP...STORMS COULD FIRE THERE AS WELL               
AND THEREFORE LEFT A 20 POP OTHERWISE 30 POPS WILL FOLLOW THE MAIN              
BOUNDARY AS IT SHIFTS AROUND. BY 7 PM THIS AFTERNOON...MOST                     
EVERYTHING SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY...AND KEPT A                   
SLIGHT POP UP THERE OVERNIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING                     
SOMETHING MAYBE FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE               
BIG COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE LESS                     
BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20S JUST TO BE SAFE.               
BY WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS AS DEVELOPING               
RIDGE TAKES HOLD IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD START                
TO HEAT THINGS UP AS SINKING AIR AND MORE DRY COLUMN WILL ALLOW                 
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT BEING SAID WILL STAY ON THE                  
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THINGS AS GREEN AS THEY ARE. ALSO THE              
NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPING THE RIDGE.                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND THRU FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES BY                 
THEN WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE AND                   
UPPER 90S. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL FLIRT WITH THE                 
100 DEGREE MARK IN THE DRIEST OF THE AIRMASS. AROUND                            
MONDAY...RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS                    
LEAVING US ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE. THUS WILL SEE                  
MOISTURE INCREASE AND WEATHER MAKERS START TO COME AT US FROM THE               
EAST. ONE FEATURE IS FORECAST POSSIBLY TO COME AT US JUST BEYOND                
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MORE CLOUD                   
COVER...SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF.                         
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1031 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACRS NRN CWFA WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL PB.          
LOW LEVEL MSTR ALONG AND S OF BOUNDARY IS HIGH FOR THE PB DWPNT OF 68           
AT KMAF AND 60 AT KMRF. MODELS DON/T HAVE GREAT HANDLE ON MSTR ESPECIALLY       
ACRS TRANS PECOS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC MST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THRU          
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. 12Z KMAF SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR L90S/U60S INDICATES      
CAPES ABOVE AROUND 5000 J/KG. QUESTION IS WHETHER THAT AVAILABLE ENERGY WILL    
ABLE TO BE REALIZED. DWPNTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE MORE IN THE 55-60 RANGE        
AND 3HR MSL PRESSURE RISES STILL NEAR 3MB AND WITH CONVECTION TO THE NE         
EXPECT THAT FRONT STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE FARTHER S AT LEAST IN         
S AND W PB DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT PW/S FCST BY RUC/NAM ARE A         
LITTLE UNDERDONE AND HEAVY RAIN IS A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...      
ESPECIALLY TRANS PECOS. THUS HAVE SENT UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO           
REFLECT HIER POPS AND HEAVY RAIN IN SWRN CWFA. BOUNDARY AND ABUNDANCE OF        
MSTR/INSTABILITY ALSO INCREASES CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS. CLOUD COVER ASSOCD  
WITH STORMS THE NE WILL LIKELY IMPACT HIGH TEMPS AND ADDITIONAL UPDATES EARLY   
THIS PM.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005/                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE ON THE             
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRAPED OVER NORTHERN               
ZONES AND THE ROLE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON CONVECTION DURING THE             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  WE DO SEE THAT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES             
HAVE WANED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH OF            
THIS DECREASE IS THE RESULT OF THE DIURNAL PRESSURE OSCILLATION.  IN            
ANY EVENT...WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND               
UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ALONG ROUGHLY AN ARTESIA...PECOS...MCCAMEY...TO             
BIG LAKE LINE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN               
THE GFS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE PARAMETERS...WE BELIEVE            
THE NGM IS OVERSTATING THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                     
ASSOCIATED BUOYANCY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...               
SBCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER MIXING              
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND                     
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY                     
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXPECTED OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS             
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN PECOS AND SOUTHERN REEVES COUNTIES.  GIVEN             
THE WEAK STORM RELATIVE WINDS FORECAST BY THE MODELS IT APPEARS THAT            
PULSE MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PREFERRED CONVECTIVE MODE THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY FAVOR HYBRID DOWNBURSTS...              
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                   
SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY.                                                         
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO A                
CLUSTER OVER THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PROPAGATE TO THE WEST THIS               
EVENING.  WE DO EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE            
EVENING HOURS AS SURFACE BASED BUOYANCY DIMINISHES AND COLD POOLS               
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONGEAL...THEREBY LIMITING SURFACE BASED                
BUOYANCY FURTHER.  MEANWHILE...THE QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL                
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.                             
SENSIBLE WEATHER...POP...AND QPF GRIDS WERE DRAWN ACCORDING TO THE              
CONCEPTUAL MODEL EXPLAINED ABOVE.  DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS FAVOR A              
BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE...WHILE MAXT AND MINT GRIDS                   
REFLECT A BLEND OF THE NAM AND NAM GUIDANCE MIXED WITH THE PREVIOUS             
FORECAST.  SKY GRIDS ARE AN EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONDITIONS IN              
CLOSE...THEN CORRELATED TO THOSE AREAS FAVORED BY CONVECTION THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK STILL ANTICIPATED WITH OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN                
IN PLACE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL                   
FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH AN               
UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.                                       
ON WEDNESDAY MENTIONED ISOLATED POPS ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND                
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MODEST INSTABILITY IN UPSLOPE FLOW. WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME                  
MAY BRING A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES                    
OVERNIGHT...BUT LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO.              
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE             
HIGH PLAINS WITH FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.             
FOR THURSDAY KEPT ISOLATED MENTION OF CONVECTION IN HIGHER TERRAIN              
AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS IN EXTREME WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW           
MEXICO NEAR WEAK LEE TROUGH DUE TO VERY INTENSE HEATING AND MODEST LOW          
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOOST FROM MOUNTAINS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NEED           
TO BE MONITORED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THIS PERIOD AS WELL.                       
THE DRYLINE MAY SHIFT FURTHER EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE MID             
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE WEST. VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES          
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. WENT WITH AN ISOLATED        
POP IN THE LOWER TRANS PECOS IN THE MUCH WEAKER 700 MILLIBAR FLOW AND           
DRYLINE GETTING BOOST FROM HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED POPS FURTHER                 
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT               
MAY BE TOUGH FOR CAP TO BREAK UNDER THE RIDGE.                                  
ISOLATED CONVECTION CANT BE RULED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST             
TEXAS ON MONDAY IN UPSLOPE FLOW BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING THIS FAR OUT.          
BY NEXT TUESDAY SIGNS ARE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE         
NORTH AND WEST...ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE LOWER         
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD TEXAS. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS           
LIKELY WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASING TEMPERATURES. DISTURBANCES WILL NEED       
TO BE MONITORED FROM THE EAST BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE.                       
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR            
OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE                
EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS                
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.              
LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT              
WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.             
EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS                   
EVENINGS TRENDS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF                 
BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WINDS AROUND 40 TO             
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN            
WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE             
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION               
SHIFTS EASTWARD.                                                                
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST            
A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY             
12Z.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME               
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND              
NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN.  AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW                 
POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF             
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483.  NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND              
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING             
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA.  RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH             
WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS.  THIS APPEARS            
AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP             
ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY             
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING.                
UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF                 
FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH               
HERE.  OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR                  
DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS.                
LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER                 
TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JMV                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF                 
BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WINDS AROUND 40 TO             
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN            
WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE             
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION               
SHIFTS EASTWARD.                                                                
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST            
A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY             
12Z.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME               
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND              
NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN.  AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW                 
POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF             
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483.  NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND              
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING             
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA.  RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH             
WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS.  THIS APPEARS            
AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP             
ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY             
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING.                
UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF                 
FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH               
HERE.  OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR                  
DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS.                
LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER                 
TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)...                                             
(ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON               
PRECIPITATION.  OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH            
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.                    
COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND            
CENTRAL OHIO.  OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST            
LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z.  AS               
THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE             
THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES.                             
OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB              
AND CKB.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM                
UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL.                                                   
ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY             
ACROSS THE AREA.  CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND             
35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER              
DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM                
DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  WITH WET BULB HIGH AND            
SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.              
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN             
WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE                 
GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE.                                                      
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.  CHANGED WEATHER            
TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT                
TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN.                                       
TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...KF                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
550 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATED FOR WATCH NUMBER 483.  NOT MUCH CHNAGE TO THE FORECAST                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND              
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING             
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA.  RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH             
WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS.  THIS APPEARS            
AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP             
ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY             
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING.                
UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF                 
FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH               
HERE.  OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR                  
DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS.                
LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER                 
TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)...                                             
(ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON               
PRECIPITATION.  OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH            
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.                    
COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND            
CENTRAL OHIO.  OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST            
LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z.  AS               
THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE             
THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES.                             
OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB              
AND CKB.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM                
UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL.                                                   
ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY             
ACROSS THE AREA.  CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND             
35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER              
DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM                
DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  WITH WET BULB HIGH AND            
SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.              
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN             
WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE                 
GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE.                                                      
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.  CHANGED WEATHER            
TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT                
TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN.                                       
TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TRM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SEVERE PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE INTO THIS EVENING AND              
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE AS SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY STARTED PANNING             
OUT JUST UPSTREAM OF FORECAST AREA.  RUC...NAM AND GFS LESS BULLISH             
WITH EVENT NOW WITH LESS MOISTURE AND MUCH LOWER POPS.  THIS APPEARS            
AT ODDS WITH ACTIVITY UPSTREAM BUT IT APPEARS MODELS ARE PICKING UP             
ON SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...A DIFFERENCE WHICH MAY             
BE JUST ENOUGH TO SHEAR THINGS OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THIS EVENING.                
UPPER DIV IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ON NAM ANYMORE EXCEPT NORTH OF                 
FORECAST AREA AND OTHER MODELS AGREE...GFS WAS NEVER THAT BULLISH               
HERE.  OPTED TO STAY WITH LIKELY POPS...NEITHER INCREASING NOR                  
DECREASING FOR THE TIME BEING AND THIS IS A COMPROMISE OF SORTS.                
LOWER MAV NUMBERS ON LOWS TONIGHT MOST LOCATIONS REFLECT FASTER                 
TIMING OF PARENT MODEL ON PROGRESS OF FRONT AND WENT NEAR TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (18Z TO 18Z)...                                             
(ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
OVERNIGHT FOG WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON               
PRECIPITATION.  OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MIXED THROUGH            
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LIMITING LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.                    
COUPLE OF LINES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING IN FROM WESTERN AND            
CENTRAL OHIO.  OTHER THAN A FEW POP UP STORMS...HAVE TIMED THE FIRST            
LINE TO APPROACH HTS AROUND 2030Z...AND PKB MORE TOWARDS 21Z.  AS               
THESE STORMS NEAR...MAY NEED TO INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS ABOVE             
THE 40KTS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR OUR WESTERN SITES.                             
OTHERWISE...FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP BKN MID DECK ACROSS               
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MORE BREAKS FIGURED SOUTH OF PKB              
AND CKB.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
WATCH BOX 480 SVR ISSUED JUST AS I WAS READY TO ISSUE SHORT TERM                
UPDATE SO TIMING WORKED WELL.                                                   
ILN SOUNDING SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAP AND CU ALREADY GOING UP QUICKLY             
ACROSS THE AREA.  CAPES UP TO 2500 J/KG ON LOW 70S DEW POINTS...AND             
35-45 KTS THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS...COUPLED WITH GOOD UPPER              
DIV AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MAKE SEVERE ALL BUT A SLAM                
DUNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  WITH WET BULB HIGH AND            
SHEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.              
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THREAT NEAR HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR LOOKS GOOD AS MEAN             
WIND AND UPPER DIVERGENCE DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THERE                 
GIVEN TRACK OF SHORT WAVE.                                                      
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST.  CHANGED WEATHER            
TERMS TO COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT                
TONIGHT AS STABILITY IS LOST BEFORE DAWN.                                       
TEMPERATURES BY AND LARGE ON TRACK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TRM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
300 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE A WEAK                
VORT MAX OVER WEST CENTRAL MN DROPPING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER               
LEVEL LOW TOWARD THE CWA.  RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SOME                
LIGHT RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED              
BY A SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN THE UPPER              
GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER OUR REGION.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FORECAST TODAY FOCUSES ON MODEST              
PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                    
COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY CYCLONIC FLOW              
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE VORT MAX ABOUT THE TIME OF MAX HEATING IN THE            
JUNE SUN SUPPORT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                    
FORECAST VORT TRACK WITH LESSER POPS (AND CLOUD COVER) TO THE                   
SOUTH.  THE SYSTEM EXITS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THUS CLEARING              
SHOULD BE RAPID THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR A COOL NIGHT.                         
MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK CAA AND CLOUD COVER.  PREFER            
COOLER MAV VALUES SINCE THE GFS DID A BETTER JOB INITIALIZING (AND              
PRESUMABLY FORECASTING) 850MB TEMPS THAN DID THE NAM...THOUGH WE                
PROBABLY WON'T MIX OUT QUITE THAT HIGH.   WOLF                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED             
PERIOD.  MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT... WITH MINIMAL FORECAST              
ISSUES OF TEMP WARM-UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.                  
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH DEVELOPMENT OF OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN                    
THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH CUTOFF LOW             
RETROGRADING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND.  PROGRESSION OF THAT LOW WILL HELP BRING SURFACE WINDS                 
AROUND FROM NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FRI/SAT TO SOUTHEASTERLY                 
SUN/MON... WHICH WILL HELP PUSH BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS HIGHER                 
BENEATH THE RIDGE.  TEMPS WILL BE COOL EARLY IN THE PERIOD... WITH              
NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW... CLEAR SKIES... AND LOW DEWPOINTS.  AREA              
WILL MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMO TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. BELIEVE THAT WE             
COULD REALLY HEAT UP EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND BUMPED UP TEMPS TO                  
REFLECT THIS.                                                                   
OVERALL... THE STORY IS WARMING AND DRY.  COOLER TEMPS EARLY IN THE             
PERIOD SHOULD KEEP VEGETATION FROM DRYING OUT QUICKLY... BUT RISK OF            
DROUGHT EXISTS WITH LONG-TERM PATTERN INDICATING DRYNESS FOR A                  
WHILE... PARTICULARLY AS THINGS HEAT UP NEXT WEEK.                              
..MAYES..                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOLF/MAYES                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
331 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE -SHRA TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE              
MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT-TERM.                                  
CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHEARING OUT OVER WISCONSIN/LOWER MICHIGAN            
DUE TO A SHRTWV TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. RIDGING             
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BEHIND                
THESE TWO FEATURES...AND THIS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BRING MORE                    
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER TO UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PERSIST PER KMQT RADAR LOOP            
ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARING OUT UPPER LOW.             
ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS EXISTS ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT APX...GRB AND INL REFLECT THIS            
CLOUDINESS WITH NEAR OR NEAR-SATURATED CONDITIONS BETWEEN 800-600MB.            
MUCH DRIER AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AS NOTED BY              
THE CLEARING SKIES. LATEST OBSERVATION FROM THUNDER BAY HAS A FEW               
SPRINKLES WITH A 5200FT DECK...INDICATIVE OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRYING.              
AT THE SURFACE...996MB LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTH                  
CHANNEL. NE WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH RECENT                 
RAINFALL AND UPSLOPE IS ALLOWING FOG AND DRIZZLE TO REMAIN OVER                 
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                   
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DROPPING SOUTH WILL HELP THE               
SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...TAKING THE                  
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THEREFORE EXPECT DRYING TO               
START MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN              
THE WEST. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING. BY                 
20Z...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS WILL CLEAR THE NEWBERRY AREA.                   
ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...BREEZY NORTH             
TO NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING CHILLY AIR IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL                
KEEP TEMPERATURES LOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN (LAKE             
SUPERIOR WATER TEMPS IN THE OPEN WATERS AROUND 38 DEGREES PER                   
BUOYS). SOUTHERN U.P. WILL FEEL MORE OF THE EFFECTS OF 8C 850MB                 
TEMPS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE IN MNM AND IMT DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.                     
TONIGHT...MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN STORE WITH DRY AIR SETTLING IN OVER             
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLEAR                
OUT. DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS              
STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC            
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO MINNESOTA. NONETHELESS...                  
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SEEM REASONABLE...COOLEST IN THE               
FAR WEST WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST.                                              
THURSDAY...SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN             
END OF THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE                 
NORTH END...WHICH DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW...NEAR CHEBOYGAN BY 18Z            
THU. THE NAM HAS THIS UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY. THIS DIFFERENCE              
IN POSITION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHERE CLOUDS               
AND -SHRA WILL BE. CANADIAN/UKMET FOLLOW THE GFS IDEA...AND FOR NOW             
WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE                   
EASTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING DUE TO THE DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER              
LOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE STABILIZATION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW AND             
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPS IN               
THE NORTHERN U.P. IS IN STORE DUE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS               
AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-6C RANGE.                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.P.                
DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS BEHIND THE            
UPPER LOW. HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THIS OCCURRING WITH ISENTROPIC               
DESCENT...LACK OF ANY UPPER JET AND THE DIURNAL COOLING PERIOD. BEST            
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE HAVE               
REMOVED CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS AGAIN COOL IN THE INTERIOR                
WEST DUE TO DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOLLOWED MAV COOP                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND BEGINS...PARTICULARLY FOR              
THE INTERIOR AS NORTH WINDS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER THIS               
WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NORTHERLIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS            
BEEN TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH                
850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-12C...READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB             
AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S. AGAIN LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORELINE WILL HOLD BACK IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS.               
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW              
DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE 40F IN THE INTERIOR            
AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY                    
PROGGED...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL.                                
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT             
WARMING DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO             
THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.            
IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET TO SPREAD            
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY SUN. THIS WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...THEN WARM EVEN FURTHER ON MON.                  
READINGS AROUND 90 STILL LOOK LIKELY SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED             
AROUND 18C. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A BACK-DOOR COLD               
FRONT ON TUE AS A SHRTWV DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE              
TAKEN LOOK AT FURTHER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED             
BACK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
211 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO PIVOT SLOWLY E ACRS THE GREAT LAKES                 
THRU THE PERIOD. S/W TO ROTATE THRU THE SRN GRTLKS AROUND THIS                  
UPPER LOW TODAY. EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CU DEVELOP TDA                    
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE N WHERE COLDEST TEMPS ALOFT WL                  
EXIST. A FEW INSTABILITY SHWRS WL BE PSBL DURG AFTN MAINLY ACRS                 
THE N. FCST SOUNDING SHOW CAP AROUND 7H ACRS THE S WHICH SHUD LIMIT             
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF SHOWERS. DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE KEPT               
TAF SITES DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE FCST PERIOD.              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 855 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
A FEW SHOWERS STILL TRYING TO GET GOING RIGHT ALONG FRONT AS IT IS              
PUSHING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO. AS WE ARE NOW STARTING TO                     
COOL...CHANCES OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING WITH FRONT ARE DIMINISHING.               
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR TRENDS BUT WILL LIKELY UPDATE FORECAST                
SHORTLY TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED            
AS REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.                      
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                  
SVR TSTMS ONGOING ACRS FCST AREA ATTM.  TSTMS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE               
INTO SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR LANCASTER SE INTO NRN KY.  APPEARS                   
GREATEST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN SOUTH CNTRL OH AND NE KY...WHERE                
CURRENT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO L90S AND RUC INDCG SBCAPES IN EXCESS              
OF 3000 J/KG.  TSTMS HAVE HAD A BIT MORE TROUBLE GETTING GOING                  
NORTH OF I-70...AND APPEARS THAT SOME MID LVL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE                 
THE CULPRIT. SVR TS WATCH #480 CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z FOR                
ENTIRE FCST AREA.                                                               
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACRS WESTERN INDIANA.  BNDRY WILL                  
SHIFT EAST ACRS FCST AREA BTWN 22Z AND 03Z.  WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN              
TSTM CHANCES UNTIL FROPA...ALTHOUGH MOST EXTENSIVE ACTIVITY IS                  
EXPECTED OVER NEXT TWO HOURS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF I-71.  MAY                
BE ABLE TO DROP GOOD PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR                    
SO...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FCST UNTIL RIGHT AT 20Z.  PCPN                
SHOULD BE OUT OF FCST AREA BY LATE EVNG AS FRNTL BNDRY SHIFTS EAST              
OF REGION.  NICE DRY PUNCH INTO FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT...AND WILL               
GO PTLY CLDY FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                               
UPR LO WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL GRT LKS ON WED...AND WILL BE A MAIN                 
FACTOR IN WX FOR REGION THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.  MID LVL                  
S/WV WILL DROP AROUND BASE OF UPR TROF INTO NRN OH WED AFTN.  THIS              
COMBINED WITH MODEST 850 CAA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
BY AFTN AND THE CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTION TO DVLP.  BEST SHOT AT                
PCPN WILL BE ACRS NRN FCST AREA...AND HAVE INDCG 30 POPS IN THESE               
LOCATIONS.  LOWER POPS FURTHER SOUTH...WITH RELATIVELY DRY                      
CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.  12Z NAM INDCG 500-               
1000 J/KG SBCAPES...SO WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSTMS.  PCPN WILL                
END DURING EVNG HOURS AS MID LVL VORT AND SFC TROF SHIFT EAST OF                
REGION.  UPR LO BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST ON THURS WITH                     
ANOTHER S/WV SHIFTING ACRS NRN OHIO THURS AFTN.  LESS MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH ON THURS...AND SHOULD SEE LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PCPN.                  
INCLUDED LO CHC POPS GENERALLY ACRS NRN/ERN PORTIONS FCST AREA FOR              
THURS AFTN. WDLY SCT -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACRS CNTRL OH                   
THURS NIGHT AS UPR LO DROPS INTO NRN PA.                                        
TEMPS...A CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS AFT EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABV NORM                
TEMPS.  FOLLOWED MAV GUID CLOSELY THRU SHORT TERM.  HIGHS IN U70S               
TO AROUND 80 ON WED WILL DROP BACK INTO L/M70S FOR THURS AS COLD                
POOL ASSOCD WITH UPR LO SHIFTS SOUTH FROM GRT LKS.  LOWS WILL DROP              
INTO THE 50S.                                                                   
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
EXTENDED MODELS NOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING UPR LO                  
EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW HI PRES TO                 
BEGIN BUILDING INTO OH VLY FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.  MAINTAINED A               
20 POP ACRS NE FCST AREA FRI MRNG...THEN SHOULD SEE DRY WX AS UPR               
LO PULLS AWAY FROM REGION.  DRY WX EXPECTED FOR REMAINDER OF                    
EXTENDED WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS SFC HI PRES BUILDS INTO              
GRT LKS AND OH VLY.  MODELS DIFFERING A BIT ON PLACEMENT OF DVLPG               
UPR LO ACRS SE CONUS...THEN RETROGRADE BACK WEST INTO LWR                       
MISSISSIPPI VLY THRU ERLY NEXT WEEK. CNTRL PLAINS RIDGE WILL BUILD              
INTO OH VLY NORTH OF UPR LO MON- TUES...WITH GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDCG               
500 MB HEIGHTS ABV 5900M.  IF THIS SHOULD VERIFY...IT WOULD MEAN A              
RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS BY NEXT WEEK. HAVE THUS WARMED MAX TEMPS               
FOR MON-TUES INTO M80S.                                                         
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
340 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                     
AT 07Z SURFACE FRONT NR A HLG-PKB-HTS-JKL LINE. FLOW ALOFT ALREADY              
TURNED TO W. FEW SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER WV             
MOUNTAINS THRU ABOUT 12Z.                                                       
DRIER W FLOW TODAY. NOTICEABLE WIND FOR JUNE. SURFACE GUSTS NEAR 20             
MPH IN LOWLANDS.                                                                
SUPPORT REMAINING TO OUR N FOR TODAY...WILL PULL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
BACK FURTHER N...FOR LATE DAY LIGHT SHOWER N-NW PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA.           
NOT MUCH COOLING ALOFT TODAY...THAT COMES TNGT AND THU.  SO                     
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE.                     
WENT TOWARD THE WARMER MAV.                                                     
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND AND GRADUALLY               
MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS IT DOES IT WILL               
TRACK A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND YET                  
ANOTHER LATE FRIDAY.  THESE FEATURES ARE WEAK IN NATURE AND NOT MUCH            
LIFT WITH THEM...ONLY WENT SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH AND IN THE                
MOUNTAINS AND KEPT IT DRY ELSEWHERE. SPRING RETURNS AS WELL WITH 85H            
TEMPS OF 6 TO 7 DEGREES INVADE THE REGION.  HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY              
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.  THIS WILL BE               
THE GENERAL TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 121 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT AT 05Z NR ZZV TO W OF HTS THEN TO SME IN SRN KY. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WV MTNS...THRU 09Z.                    
SOME FOG FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SRN WV               
INCLUDING NEAR BKW...BUT WAS HOPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRONG ENOUGH            
TO JUST HAVE A FEW PATCHES DRIFT ACROSS BKW BEFORE 06-09Z.                      
STRONGER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 00Z WITH THE FRESHER AIR               
AND LOWER DEW POINTS...RESULTING IN GOOD VISIBILITY.  FIGURING ON               
MAINLY SCT SOUTH TO SCT TO BKN CU/SC DURING THE DAY.                            
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DRUING THE 03 TO 06Z WITH           
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR            
OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE                
EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS                
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.              
LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT              
WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.             
EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS                   
EVENINGS TRENDS.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KTB/JS                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
121 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT AT 05Z NR ZZV TO W OF HTS THEN TO SME IN SRN KY. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WV MTNS...THRU 09Z.                    
SOME FOG FROM THE RAIN COOLED AIR...IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SRN WV               
INCLUDING NEAR BKW...BUT WAS HOPING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW STRONG ENOUGH            
TO JUST HAVE A FEW PATCHES DRIFT ACROSS BKW BEFORE 06-09Z.                      
STRONGER THAN NORMAL LOW LEVEL FLOW THRU 00Z WITH THE FRESHER AIR               
AND LOWER DEW POINTS...RESULTING IN GOOD VISIBILITY.  FIGURING ON               
MAINLY SCT SOUTH TO SCT TO BKN CU/SC DURING THE DAY.                            
STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NW TO SE DRUING THE 03 TO 06Z WITH           
SECONDARY COLD FRONT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1010 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS WATCH NUMBER 483 FOR            
OUR CWA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WHILE LOWERING POPS IN THE                
EAST AS BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXITS THIS EVENING...HAVE INSERTED SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 1 AM. FRONT STILL ACROSS                
CENTRAL OHIO AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.              
LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STILL SOME LEFT OVER INSTABILITY SO THAT              
WITH A LITTLE FORCING THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.             
EVEN THIS EVENING RUC AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SKY AND HOURLY TEMPS FROM THIS                   
EVENINGS TRENDS.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 645 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF                 
BOUNDARIES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WINDS AROUND 40 TO             
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS SE OHIO...NE KY...AND EXTREME WESTERN            
WV WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE             
MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION               
SHIFTS EASTWARD.                                                                
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED WITH ANY MAJOR WIND CHANGE...JUST            
A SHIFT BECOMING MORE WESTWARD.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED                
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER NEAR 06Z...SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA BY             
12Z.                                                                            
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME               
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ALONG AND              
NORTH OF A LINE FROM PKB TO EKN.  AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LOW                 
POSSIBILITY WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF AFTERNOON TSRA OUT OF THIS TAF             
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 210 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                 
THIS COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING COULD HELP SPARK AN AFTERNOON              
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH               
SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN IN THE MID LEVELS.  TEMPERATURE WISE...NOT            
A LOT OF COOLING AT THE SFC UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN LOW TO MID 70S ARE            
FIGURED.  WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW RESIDING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH                    
FRIDAY...WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF LOW POPS ALL TOGETHER.                 
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...KTB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
320 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES TODAY...DRY                      
PERIOD THEREAFTER.                                                              
H5 LOW OPENING UP INTO LWR MI WITH RUC/WATER VAPOR SHOWING A COUPLE             
OF VORT MAXES...BOTH IN MN...THAT WILL COME DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF                
UPR TROF TODAY. SFC TROF AXIS ALSO COMING INTO PLAY TODAY. 11/3                 
SHOWS THE INVASION OF LOW CLOUDINESS. GIVEN COLDER H8 TEMPS AND                 
THE CLOUDS...WOULD EXPECT TEMPS ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY...PERHAPS              
CLOSER TO 3HRLY NAM/GFS GUID THAN 12 HR VALUES.                                 
STILL RATHER CYCLONIC LOOKING ON THU WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW                     
ROTATING SWD INTO LWR MI. MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS IN ERN CWA THAN WRN               
CWA...ESP WITH COOLISH NAM H5 TEMPS...H8 THERMAL TROF NOTED AS WELL.            
IN FACT GFS REALLY BACKS COOL H8 TEMPS INTO CWA THU NGT/ERLY FRI THO            
WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM THERMAL STRUCTURE FOR NOW.                                
GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING DRY REGIME INTO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK                
WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING KEEPING PCPN CHCS ON HOLD.                           
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                     
...DISCUSSION...                                                                
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE AMOUNT OF CLOUDCOVER/DRYING ACROSS                   
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AND RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                 
CURRENT...14Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO             
SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY PUSHING TO THE EAST TOWARD LAKE                    
ONTARIO. LINGERING MOISTURE/CLOUDCOVER BACK OVER UPPER LAKES                    
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE AS SIGNIFICANT DRY PUSH AND SUBSIDENCE                
CROSSES LAKE SUPERIOR. 12Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA                 
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 900-700 MB ALREADY                           
OCCURRING...AND THIS IS BACKED UP BY RECENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGES                  
SHOWING NEARLY CLEAR SKIES NOW OVERTAKING THIS REGION AND EXTENDING             
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT TO CONCERNED             
WITH THE GOING FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AS SIGNIFICANT                  
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND REMAINING CEILINGS               
HAVE RISEN ABOVE 8000 FT AS NOTED BY 14Z KCMX OBSERVATION. A BIT                
MORE CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HAVE SLOWED THE                  
WARMUP DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SHOWER ACTIVITY/LOW CEILINGS HAVE            
BEEN A BIT STUBBORN THIS MORNING WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN               
THE PROCESS. OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS REGION IS WITH IMPACTS FROM ONE             
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL NOTED BY 12Z RUC THAT IS FORECAST              
TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS              
FEATURE COULD HELP HOLD SOME PERIODIC LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION              
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE             
GOING FORECAST WITH ECHO COVERAGE DECREASING RAPIDLY OVER PAST HOUR             
OR TWO AND DO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS                    
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN U.P BY MID AFTERNOON. ALL IN               
ALL GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE COOLER             
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST.                           
. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                        
TONIGHT...MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IN STORE WITH DRY AIR SETTLING IN OVER             
THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SKIES TO COMPLETELY CLEAR                
OUT. DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS              
STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN QUEBEC            
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO MINNESOTA. NONETHELESS...                  
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SEEM REASONABLE...COOLEST IN THE               
FAR WEST WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST.                                              
THURSDAY...SOME QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN             
END OF THE SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE                 
NORTH END...WHICH DEVELOPS INTO AN UPPER LOW...NEAR CHEBOYGAN BY 18Z            
THU. THE NAM HAS THIS UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY. THIS DIFFERENCE              
IN POSITION WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHERE CLOUDS               
AND -SHRA WILL BE. CANADIAN/UKMET FOLLOW THE GFS IDEA...AND FOR NOW             
WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS. EXPECT SOME -SHRA TO MOVE INTO THE                   
EASTERN U.P. DURING THE MORNING DUE TO THE DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER              
LOW AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY LATE                   
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF LAKE STABILIZATION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW AND             
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPS IN               
THE NORTHERN U.P. IS IN STORE DUE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS               
AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE 4-6C RANGE.                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...GFS SHOWS SOME QPF MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.P.                
DURING THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS BEHIND THE            
UPPER LOW. HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THIS OCCURRING WITH ISENTROPIC               
DESCENT...LACK OF ANY UPPER JET AND THE DIURNAL COOLING PERIOD. BEST            
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALSO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE HAVE               
REMOVED CHANCES OF SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS AGAIN COOL IN THE INTERIOR                
WEST DUE TO DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FOLLOWED MAV COOP                   
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WARMING TREND BEGINS...PARTICULARLY FOR              
THE INTERIOR AS NORTH WINDS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER THIS               
WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE NORTHERLIES AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS            
BEEN TO THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH                
850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8-12C...READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB             
AT LEAST INTO THE MID 70S. AGAIN LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR               
SHORELINE WILL HOLD BACK IN THE UPPER 50S DUE TO THE NORTH WINDS.               
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW              
DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE 40F IN THE INTERIOR            
AT THE MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY                    
PROGGED...MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL.                                
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...LATEST ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT             
WARMING DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY TO             
THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.            
IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET TO SPREAD            
NORTH INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY SUN. THIS WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...THEN WARM EVEN FURTHER ON MON.                  
READINGS AROUND 90 STILL LOOK LIKELY SINCE 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED             
AROUND 18C. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A BACK-DOOR COLD               
FRONT ON TUE AS A SHRTWV DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE              
TAKEN LOOK AT FURTHER AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE TRIMMED             
BACK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MROCZKA                                                            
LONG TERM...AJ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
302 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING AND LEVEL OF POPS FIRST 24                   
HOURS, AND AGAIN 36-48 HOURS OUT.                                               
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR ANY CONVECTION TO WORK WITH, SO            
WENT WITH 50 POPS EARLY TONIGHT IN WEST, WITH SEVERE STORMS                     
POSSIBLE, AND BRING 60 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.           
HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH STRONG WINDS A SECONDARY                   
CONCERN. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG, NOR IS THE OVERALL            
SHEAR PROFILE, THUS TORNADOES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT.  IN                 
CERTAIN PARTS OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST, HEAVY RAIN IS A             
POSSIBILITY.  CHECKING THE 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM 15/12Z,             
IT WOULD TAKE 3.0-3.3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, AND DO               
NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH RAIN, MORE LIKE 1.0 INCHES IN MOST HEAVY SPOTS.            
-LATE ADDITION:  SPC JUST ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #484, THE            
THE EXACT AREA I HAD SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES.                                   
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE JUST HOW MUCH OF AN MCS FORMS TONIGHT, AS             
THERE WILL BE DIFFERENT FORCES COMING INTO PLAY.  ONE IS A SHORT WAVE           
CROSSING NORTHERN COLORADO AND DIVING ESE OVERNIGHT.  IT SHOULD                 
ENCOUNTER A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH FROM                      
OKLAHOMA.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  THE LATEST RUC FROM 18Z                  
BREAKS OUT A LITTLE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 21Z,             
AND THE CURRENT RADAR LOOP WOULD INDICATE THE FOCUS REGION HAS                  
MOVED FARTHER EAST THAN PRATT/MEDICINE LODGE ALREADY BY 18Z.  THUS,             
WILL NOT LOOK FOR PRECIPITATION THERE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.                     
ANOTHER MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM THURSDAY EVENING, PERHAPS JUST A                  
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TONIGHT'S.  IF SO, THERE WILL BE PLENTY               
OF TIME TO UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS AND HIGHER            
POPS IF NEEDED.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE MCS FORMATION                 
REGION WILL BE NEAR OR TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT DDC'S CWA.  WENT                 
WITH A BLANKET POP 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.                                          
DID NOT CHANGE MINS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY NIGHT, NOR MAXT'S FOR                   
THURSDAY, AS THEY SEEMED ON TRACK.  DID STRUGGLE A BIT TO GET                   
SURROUNDING OFFICES TO COME DOWN ON MAXT'S FOR FRIDAY, BUT MOST                 
CONCURRED.  IF THE MCS EXITS AS FORECAST, A FRONT SHOULD SLIDE                  
SOUTH, LEAVING US IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW.  ALSO,                     
CLOUDS WILL EITHER LINGER OR RE-DEVELOP AS THE COLD AIR, AND THUS               
THINK TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE LOW            
TO MID 80S MAY NOT STILL BE COOL ENOUGH.                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE PRIMARY WORD FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE: RIDGE.                 
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL PATTERN.  WE MAY GET ONE MORE NIGHT OF MCS             
ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY THIS                   
WEEKEND, SO KEPT THE LOW POPS GOING THERE.  AFTER THAT, MOST OF THE             
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER             
THE CENTRAL CONUS.  TEMPS WILL BE BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S               
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS              
LOOK TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK SO MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO WHAT WE HAD             
GOING.  THINK THAT THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN               
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS START TO SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY THE              
RIDGE.  THINK WE COULD START TO GET SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN              
LATE IN THE 8-10 DAY PERIOD AS THE JET COMES BACK SOUTH.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  66  88  66  82 /  50   0  20  20                                           
GCK  64  88  64  82 /  40  20  20  20                                           
EHA  63  92  64  83 /  40  20  20  20                                           
LBL  65  91  65  82 /  40  20  20  20                                           
HYS  64  87  65  80 /  50   0  20  20                                           
P28  67  90  67  83 /  60   0  20  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/26                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
155 PM MDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MSAS DATA CURRENTLY SHOWING A WEAK LOW ACROSS                     
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.                 
THOSE TWO FEATURES ARE HELPING TO CREATE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN                
INCREASE MOISTURE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT BY THE MID 60 DEWPOINTS                 
CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES.                                               
TODAY/TONIGHT...AMPLE HEATING AND THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP            
TO ESTABLISH UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE TERRAIN IN COLORADO. STORMS ARE            
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD               
WITH THE 0-6KM WIND BEING 15-20 KTS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BOTH               
THE NAM AND RUC SHOW A DECENT INSTABILITY AXIS NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS               
THE CWA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE CAP           
ACROSS THE EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO HOLD IT LONGER...WHILE THE RUC                
ERODES IT BY 21Z. CURRENT THINKING IS TO GO WITH THE MORE                       
PROGRESSIVE RUC AS SOME CU IS SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IN THE              
EAST. ASSUMING THE CAP DOES BREAK...STORMS THAT MAKE IT EASTWARD                
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF BEING SUPER-CELLULAR IN NATURE.               
SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN                   
OVERNIGHT WITH 850 JET AND SOME CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH          
THAT SAID...DID ADJUST POPS FOR TONIGHT AND INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...BUT ENDED PRECIP BY MORNING.                               
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...TOMORROW WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO                    
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE FLOW SEEMS TO              
BE STRONGER...WHICH WOULD CONFINE STORMS TO THE TERRAIN IN COLORADO             
EARLY ON AND EASTERLY PROGRESSION LATE. SLIGHT CHANGE MADE TO                   
TOMORROW NIGHTS POPS AND QPF...MAINLY ORIENTATION. GFS AND NAM                  
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. INSTEAD OF PUSHING CONVECTION/MCS                
FROM NEBRASKA DUE SOUTH IN CENTRAL CWA...MODELS TAKE IT FURTHER WEST            
AND ALONG A BOUNDARY. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER BACKING             
RIDGE IN THE EAST. RAISED QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS STORMS            
WILL HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT OFF OF THE BOUNDARY AND AN AMPLE MOISTURE             
AXIS TO WORK WITH.                                                              
FRIDAY...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIP...BUT LEFT OVER BOUNDARY            
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DID                  
HOWEVER...LOWERED MAXES A FEW AS UPSLOPE REGIME AND COOLER 850 TEMPS            
SETTLE OVER THE AREA.                                                           
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A SEMI OMEGA BLOCK IN THE               
PATTERN. KEPT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...HOT AND DRY.                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MBM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
446 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHC OF SHRA EAST ON THU AND OTHERWISE                
CLDS/TEMPS THROUGH FCST PD.                                                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW              
BROAD MID LVL LOW OVER WRN QUEBEC WITH AN AMPLIFIED RDG OVER THE WRN            
PLAINS STATES AND A CLOSED LOW DIGGING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. VIS                
SATELLITE SHOWS THAT LINGERING CLOUD COVER ON BACKSIDE OF LOW OVER              
QUEBEC IS BEGINNING TO ERODE OVER THE UPR GRT LKS AS DRIER AIR WORKS            
IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER ANOTHER MASS OF STRATOCU CLOUDS             
IS HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE OVER JAMES BAY               
AREA. THESE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD OVER ERN HALF OF FCST AREA LATER                
TONIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.                                            
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE FACT THAT HIGHS WERE QUITE COLD OVER AREA TODAY             
AND THAT DRIER DWPNTS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM NORTH OF THE LAKE...IT              
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR READINGS TO FALL. EXPECT             
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP A BIT MORE THIS EVENING OVER ERN ZONES BEFORE                
CLOUDING BACK OVER LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM               
THE NE. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO THE DEWPOINTS THOUGH AS WINDS            
STAY UP BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW TO EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING              
DOWN FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. NONETHELESS...READINGS WILL BE                   
COOL...IN THE LOW 40S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S            
EAST.                                                                           
THURSDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN ON BACKSIDE ON               
LOW WITH ASSOC SHOT OF CAA...COLDEST 8H TEMPS OF AROUND 4C ARE OVER             
THE EAST WITH AROUND 8C OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME                   
MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV NOTED ON MODELS ASSOC WITH DPVA AHEAD OF                    
SHORTWAVE...UPSTREAM 12Z SDNG AT MOOSONEE ONTARIO LOOKS RELATIVELY              
DRY...SO NOT SURE EVEN WITH INSTABILITY HOW MUCH SHRA ACTIVITY WILL             
OCCUR OVER THE ERN COUNTIES. ETA AND GFS FCST SNDGS AT KERY SHOW                
SHALLOW LYR OF INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 50 J/KG. KEPT IN SOME DIURNAL            
SHRA JUST FOR LUCE COUNTY AND WENT DRY ELSEWHERE. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY            
OF COOL TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN U.P. AS FCST SNDGS AND ETA 2M TEMPS               
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BELOW FCST GUIDNACE. KEPT IN HIGHS FROM UPR 50S TO            
LOW 60S NORTH TO UPR 60S SOUTH AND ALONG DOWNSLOPING AREAS NEAR LAKE            
MI.                                                                             
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVER ERN COUNTIES              
IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AND WITH COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. LOOK FOR              
ANOTHER NIGHT OF READINGS AROUND 40 IN THE WRN INTERIOR CLOSER TO               
SFC RDG AXIS AND IN THE MID TO UPR 40S EAST WITH MORE OF GRADIENT               
WIND EXPECTED. GENERALLY FOLLOWED COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                      
FRIDAY...CONTINUATION OF NORTH WINDS WILL STILL KEEP TEMPS                      
UNSEASONABLY COOL. WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 5-9C ON FRI...EXPECT              
READINGS IN THE INTERIOR SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S OVER THE WRN             
INTERIOR BUT WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IMMEDIATELY               
UPSTREAM OF THE LAKE WITH DECENT NRLY FLOW. WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD              
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES            
WILL DROP QUICKLY. HAVE UPR 30S IN THE WRN INTERIOR AT THE                      
MOMENT...BUT SHOULD DEWPOINTS BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED...MAY             
HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST POTENTIAL.                                              
SATURDAY...MORE EARNEST WARMING TAKING PLACE AS RDG FM THE WEST                 
BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH 8H TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 10 TO 12C. EXPECT                
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO UPR 70S SOUTHWEST...EXCEPT FOR                    
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S ALONG THE GRT LAKES.                             
EXTENDED (SUN-WED)...ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORTING VERY WARM TO HOT                
TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. 5H RDG HEIGHTS BUILD TO THE 585 TO 590 DAM            
OVER THE REGION WITH RDG AMPLIFYING OVER THE AREA. FOLLOWED MORE                
CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL ECMWF WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF WK CDFNT FM               
WEST. SLIGHT FLATTENING OF 5H RDG WITH WK SHORTWAVE ALLOWS CDFNT TO             
SAG TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AS GULF MSTR               
BLOCKED BY MASSIVE RDG TO SOUTH...ALTHOUGH HAVE TRIMMED BACK HIGH               
TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TUE. NONETHELESS WITH THERMAL RIDGE INDICATING               
8H TEMPS OF 17-18C PROGGED OVER AREA THROUGH PD WOULD EXPECT INLAND             
HIGHS TO REACH UPR 80S TO LOW 90S OVER THE WRN INTERIOR AND AROUND              
THE MID 80S EAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
248 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2005                                                      
..CONTINUED HOT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID THU...                                  
.SHORT TERM /TNGT AND THU/...TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE MID-UPR 90S             
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTN. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TOP OUT IN               
THE UPR 90S AND THERE IS STILL A SHOT THAT FEW INLAND LOCATIONS WL              
MAKE A RUN FOR 100 DEG BEFORE SUNSET. AS NOTED IN YDA/S GUIDANCE AND            
FCST GRIDS...DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO MIX OUT AND ARE RANGING FROM                 
AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS               
PRODUCING OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 103-109 DEGREES. THE                
LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX VALUES WL LIKELY NOT FALL BLO             
105 UNTIL JUST AFT 7 PM. WL XTND THE HEAT ADV UNTIL 8 PM AS A                   
RESULT. THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN SEVERELY SUPPRESSED BY THE DEEP WLY               
FLOW. WE PLAN TO GO WITH A DRY FCST THIS EVNG AND OVRNGT WITH THE               
ATMOS REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WL QUICKLY             
DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET LEAVING CLR SKIES. IT WL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY             
TNGT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S.                                           
HIGHS THU WL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPR 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE               
COAST. A CONTD DEEP WLY FLOW ALOFT WL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE ALONG OR              
JUST OFF THE COAST. DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE ABOUT 5 DEG LWR THAN            
THIS AFTN WHICH WL RESULT IN A HEAT INDEX VALUES BLO HEAT ADV                   
CRITERIA. STILL XPCT HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100. THE ATMOS WL                 
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED SO GRIDDED POPS WL REMAIN AOB 10 PCNT.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THU NGT THROUGH WED/...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY.            
CDFNT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRI AS A               
LARGE H5 TROF DIGS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THIS FNT WL BECOME Q-STNRY             
SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST THROUGH ERLY NXT WEEK. PCPN CHANCES BE                  
HIGHEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WK IMPULSES ROUND THE BASE OF THE            
LARGE UPR TROF AND INTERACT WITH THE FNT. IT WL BE MUCH COOLER WITH             
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SFC TROF SLIGHTLY INLAND WILL PUSH OVR THE WATERS TNGT                
THRU TMRW TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FNTL BNDRY FRI. FNTL BNDRY LOOKS TO               
WOBBLE OVR THE WATERS LATE FRI THRU THE WEEKEND MAKING THE DIRECTION            
FORECAST RATHER TRICKY. WITH SPEEDS AOB 15 KT THRU THE PERIOD...                
HAVING SOLELY A DIRECTIONAL FORECAST IS WELCOME. FNTL BNDRY LOOKS TO            
PUSH THRU THE MARINE AREA BY MON MRNG...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO              
N-NE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
SEA WILL REMAIN AOB 4 FT THRU THE WEEKEND. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NE            
BY NEXT WEEK...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY CREEP UP TO 5 FT IN THE GA OUTER                
WATERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU 16/18Z. WILL LOOK FOR WINDS TO            
BACK TO SLY THIS AFTN THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO SWLY TNGT AND TO WLY BY            
DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG...WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KT. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP                  
MENTION OF HZ AT KCHS BUT WITH 6SM VFR VSBY AS 5-MIN OBS HAVE                   
BOUNCED BETWEEN 6-7SM VSBY DUE TO HZ.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.               
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SCZ040-042>045-047>051.                           
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc