AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SYNOPSIS                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
255 PM MST MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE               
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA              
WILL INCREASE...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.                      
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEVADA ON                    
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX               
AREA WEDNESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA             
WILL BRING COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND               
ESPECIALLY THIS COMING WEEKEND. THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WILL OCCUR THIS            
THURSDAY AT 323 PM.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOWER LEVELS STILL RATHER DRY ALTHOUGH THE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP              
SOMEWHAT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AT PHOENIX. 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED               
PRECIP WATER HAS JUMPED TO .88 INCH WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT                   
CONTINUING. SURROUNDING AREAS MOISTENED UP AS WELL...AND 88D DATA               
FROM SE ARIZONA SHOWED THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.            
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALSO REPORTED IN THAT AREA BY 20Z. RUC PICKED UP             
ON AN AREA OF UVV AT 700MB AND GENERATED SOME PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF            
PHOENIX BY 00Z. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MEXICO AND BY               
06Z WINDS ALOFT LIKELY TO BACK AROUND FURTHER AND MAY SHOW SOME                 
COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH MAX TEMPERATURE UP TO NEAR 103               
THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD GET AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO BY 00Z.                     
GFS STILL SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE                 
CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE              
STAYS NEARLY STNRY WHILE THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. NO STRONG              
SYSTEM PROGGED TO ROTATE INTO OUR CWA FROM MEXICO...AND I AM VERY               
HESITANT TO GO HOG WILD WITH POPS LIKE THE ETA MOS SHOWS FOR KPHX               
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO KEEP THE GENERAL TRENDS INTACT FOR TUESDAY AND               
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF PUSHES EASTWARD AND A DRIER SW FLOW ALOFT IS              
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...UPPER FLOW IS STRONGER ACROSS N-CENTRAL ARIZONA             
ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH BETTER JET DYNAMICS...THERE COULD BE AND A                
BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.              
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY 12Z FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO AN            
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM                 
CLOSES OFF OVER NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND              
OUR FLOW ALOFT BACKS SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. WE WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS             
YET FOR THAT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN AZ LOOK MORE                 
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACTIVITY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS. TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT CURRENT WEATHER. SEE            
TAFS PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR            
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                      
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
SIPPLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
900 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...MAIN FOCUS THIS               
MORNING REMAINS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DISTRICT ON                
TUESDAY. BEFOREHAND...SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING FROM THE CUT OFF LOW             
OFF THE WEST COAST WILL ADVECT WARM AIR INTO THE DISTRICT TODAY.                
THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW              
DEG-F ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN              
FALLING ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR TODAY AS                 
GRADIENTS FROM SFO TO LAS REMAIN NEAR 1-3MB THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
MOSTLY OFF-SHORE. FURTHERMORE...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA              
REMAINS STABLE TODAY...THE TREND IS FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY GOING            
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.                  
CURRENT FORECAST HAS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                
WORDING OVER THE KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL                
MAINTAIN THIS WORDING OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER BASED ON RUC AND                
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL              
MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS ALL WEATEHR ELEMENTS            
REMAIN ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW/S EVENTS.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ON TUES...THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH                   
INLAND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS...AND SPREAD SCATTERED                 
PRECIP INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHANCES              
IN THE MTNS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ALL AREAS...BUT STAYED BELOW MOS               
UNTIL SAT PIX ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SHOW MOISTURE GETTING ENTRAINED INTO            
THE LOW. MODEL QPF/S VARY QUITE A BIT...BUT RANGE FROM 1/2-3/4                  
INCHES IN THE KERN MTNS...TAPERING OFF FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE                   
VALLEY...QPF/S ARE FROM 1 TO 2 TENTHS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE               
GREAT BASIN TUES NITE AND WED...ENDING PRECIP THREAT. TEMPS TUESDAY             
PROBLEMATIC AND WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON EXTENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIP. HAVE            
FAVORED THE LOWER GFS NUMBERS AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY WARMER WED AS              
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z                    
TUESDAY. SPECIFIC DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TAFS FOR KMCE...KFAT              
AND KBFL.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD /USE ALL LOWER CASE/                                    
MOLINA/BINGHAM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
935 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...RITA FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS/KEYS TUE...                
CURRENTLY/TODAY...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW VERY DRY               
AIR ALOFT WITH MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERING LOUISIANA/EAST TEXAS              
AND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.  MORNING SOUNDINGS REFLECT            
THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.35              
INCHES.  EAST/NORTHEAST GRADIENT FLOW CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN AS                   
TROPICAL STORM RITA MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A FEW                   
CONVERGENCE LINES WERE NOTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUT RADAR HAS             
JUST BEEN SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE CLOUD LINES...INDICATING               
THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE.  BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD START             
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.                   
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE               
LOOKS GOOD.  ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE COVERAGE OF             
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AND PLAN TO HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.              
DON'T PLAN ANY CHANGES TO THE ZONES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE                
NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY.             
WILL BE ADDING SCEC TO THE NORTHERN ZONES. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT                
SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH.                                                           
THE INCREASING WAVE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A MODERATE RIP                
CURRENT THREAT...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE ARE EXISTING CUTS IN THE                
SANDBARS DUE TO THE HIGH SURF EVENT ABOUT A WEEK AGO.                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM               
   THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.                                      
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT TO 60 NM               
   THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASCODY                                                            
LONG TERM...HIRSCH                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
628 AM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM TRENDS TODAY. VIGOROUS SHORT              
WAVE PUNCHING THROUGH MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS                         
MORNING...WITH IMPRESSIVE THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO FORECAST              
AREA. PROFILER PLOTS AT 850 HPA INDICATES 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET                
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MO/IL. BAND OF ELEVATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS IN REGION OF STRONG MOIST CONVERGENCE/THETA-E                     
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET TO MOVE ACROSS TERMINALS THIS                
MORNING...WITH LATEST RUC FORECASTS SHIFTING MAIN CONVERGENT AXIS               
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AROUND MID MORNING...ALONG WITH CONTINUED                 
VEERING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET. THUS WILL CARRY A               
FEW HOURS OF VCTS/TEMPO TS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 15 UTC.              
THEN EXPECT LULL AS MORNING ACTIVITY LIFTS OUT. FORECAST AREA WILL              
BE IN WARM SECTOR HOWEVER...WITH SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS WI AND                   
TRAILING COLD FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MET/RUC            
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IF WE CAN            
GET SOME SUN...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS 65-70 DEG F AND WELL MIXED                    
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTING SBCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. SECOND             
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS/VORT LOBE APPROACHES CONCURRENT                
WITH COLD FROPA LATER TODAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ANOTHER VCTS GROUP               
FROM ABOUT 21 UTC THROUGH FROPA AT 23-00 UTC. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE                 
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND FRONT THIS EVENING.                    
STRONG GRADIENT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO SUPPORT               
S/SW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDSHIFT TO WEST WITH             
FROPA...THEN VEERING TO 320-340 DEG THIS EVENING BEHIND FRONT.                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR MORNING PACKAGE...                                  
MAIN CONCERN THIS PACKAGE THE TS COMING THRU TODAY. AT 05Z MAIN TS              
STILL WAY BACK IN W IA BUT SCATTERED STUFF DEVELOPING W OF MLI WITH             
A STRONG VORT LOBE IN CENTRAL IA WITH GOOD 850-700 WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION. MODELS SHOW TWO ENERGY PACKAGES TO COME THRU NEXT 24                 
HOURS WITH TS CHANCES, THE ONE IN IA NOW AND ONE POSSIBLY THIS                  
EVENING WITH SOME 850-700 COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT.                             
LONGER RANGE PICTURE IS ONE OF CONTINUED WARM TEMPS WITH 850 TEMPS              
12 OR HIGHER THRU PERIOD WITH ALMOST ALL 16 OR HIGHER AS JET HOLDS              
TO OUR N WITH A W FLOW AND BY END OF FORECAST TROF DIGS ALONG W                 
COAST TO BRING OUR UPPER FLOW BACK TO SW. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP                 
LOOKS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                                                     
IN SHORT TERM LOOKS LIKE MAIN PUSH TS THRU IN MORNING ENDING BY                 
MIDDAY THEN GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE VORT LOBE. HOWEVER, BY                   
EVENING THE NEXT WEAKER LOBE COMES OVERHEAD WITH THE FRONT STILL IN             
THE AREA AND STILL DECENT 925 CONVERGENCE INDICATED ON THE ETA,                 
700-500 LAPSE RATES OVER VERY UNSTABLE 7-7.5, WITH A DECENT NE-SW               
LOBE OF 100-850 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON ETA AND EVEN NGM, AND -7 LI             
ON GFS. SO WILL HAVE CATEGORIAL POPS THIS MORNING AND THEN CHANCE               
THIS EVENING WITH FROPA AND 2ND UPPER LEVEL TROF. THINKING OF                   
LEAVING THE NW COUNTIES OUT OF THE EVE TS THREAT AS IT LOOKS MAIN               
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT JUST TO THE E OF THEM. LAST MINUTE DECISION ON             
THIS. TEMPERATURES REAL TRICKY TODAY DEPENDING ON SOON SUN COMES OUT            
BEHING THE FIRST BATCH OF TS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
310 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...                                              
CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING NEARLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ENTIRE REGION.                
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL WARMING...WHERE ACARS DATA OUT OF              
SDF IS SHOWING 700MB 10 DEGREE CELSIUS CAP. WARM FRONT PUSHING                  
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR IL/IN BORDER...AND DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING AND              
WINDS ARE GUSTING BEHIND IT IN WARM SECTOR. MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER                 
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS TRAVERSING EASTWARD HELPING TO FIRE STORMS                
ALONG COLD FRONT OVER IA/MO BORDER. WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSES DATA               
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MO TOO...SEEN AS WEAK SPEED MAX             
VIA PROFILER DATA. ONLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED OVER                    
SOUTHERN IL. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER NOT LIKELY THAT IF SHORTWAVE              
OVER CNTRL MO DEVELOPS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...IT COULD COMBINE WITH             
INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA AND GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED            
CELLS BEFORE SUNSET. WITH SOME SFC CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY OVER SW                
IN...HAVE SLT CHC POPS OVER IN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.                   
MAIN SHOW FOR CWA WILL BE WITH COLD FRONT AS THAT MOVES SE TOWARD               
REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A LARGE LINES OF SHWRS/STRMS TO DEVELOP                
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT. AS UPPER-LEVEL JET IS                 
PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD...PARTS OF CENTRAL IL/IN WILL BE UNDER                 
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND                
NOSES INTO FA AFTER MIDNIGHT...COULD SEE THIS LOW LEVEL                         
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HELP SUSTAIN THE LINE OF PRECIP              
EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE FORCING WILL BE TO THE               
NORTH HOWEVER...BUT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND              
INCREASING SHEAR...HAVE 50 POPS NORTH AND 30S SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.              
LOW-LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE STABLE BY THE TIME THE SQUALL LINE REACHES            
CWA...BUT GIVEN THE 0-3KM SHEAR OF NEARLY 40 KTS...COULD SEE                    
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. BEST CHCS FOR THIS RESIDE IN CENTRAL              
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA.                                                      
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AREA IT BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST AS               
OPPOSED TO BEING ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW. WITH 850MB WSW JET...FLOW              
WOULD GENERALLY BE PARALLEL TO LINE AND WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE             
STILL AROUND...COULD SEE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNRISE AND LATER BUT ONLY              
IF THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER THAT LONG. GIVEN PAST FRONTAL PASSAGES               
THIS SUMMER...DO NOT HAVE THAT MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT LINE WILL HOLD              
TOGETHER SO HAVE 50 POPS MAX.                                                   
DECREASE POPS NW BY NOON TUESDAY...WITH SLT CHCS OVER SE TOMORROW               
AFT AS FRONT SLOWS A BIT. WENT NEAR GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW (MID            
80S) AS TEMPS SHOULD STILL REBOUND NICELY AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND                 
FROPA.                                                                          
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...                                          
WITHIN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS DROP INTO                 
THE 50S TUE NIGHT WITHIN LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. MAY STILL BE ENOUGH                 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG IN SRN KY BY WED                              
MORNING...HOWEVER WINDS IN LOWEST 500FT AGL ARE FCST TO REMAIN TOO              
MIXY FOR ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.                                                   
REMAINDER OF PERIOD DEFINED BY RIDGING COVERING MUCH OF THE                     
CNTRL/ERN CONUS SOUTH OF FAST WESTERLIES ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER.               
STRONG JET STREAK PASSES THROUGH THIS FLOW INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC              
THU-FRI...LEAVING A TRAILING SFC FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST-GREAT                 
LAKES. APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS FRONT AND ASSOC WX WILL REMAIN N OF               
THE CWA GIVEN DECENT UPPER RIDGING OVER SRN/ERN CONUS...BUT                     
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.                                                    
TPC INDICATING HRCN RITA INTO NWRN GULF OF MEX SAT WITH GFS/ECMWF               
DEPICTING REMNANT CIRCULATION TO LIFT N/NWWD AROUND THE WRN                     
PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE OVER CONUS. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT                      
DIFFERENCES IN THIS TRACK HOWEVER...WITH LATEST SETS OF ECMWF...                
CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN RECENT               
GFS RUNS WHICH BRING CIRCULATION UP THROUGH THE MISS RIVER VALLEY               
CLOSER TO THE CWA. GFS SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA            
TO THE AREA SUN-MON. AM INCLINED FOR NOW TO CONTINUE WITH CURRENT               
DRY FCST FOR THE LATER SECTIONS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GIVEN                 
UNCERTAINTY IN PATH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.                                        
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE...850MB TEMPS NEARING +20C AT 00 UTC/FRI            
SO SFC TEMPS WILL GET FAIRLY WARM FOR LATE SEPTEMBER...PARTICULARLY             
IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME WHERE WIDESPREAD MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S                   
LIKELY...WITH CAPPING NOTED IN BUFKIT FCST SOUNDINGS.                           
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1104 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOWING RIDGING OVER               
GULF STATES WITH NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS HIGH...TWO            
DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND A                    
SECONDARY ONE DEVELOPING OVER NE IL. THE LATTER SHORTWAVE IN                    
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HELPING TO             
GENERATE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA WITH A FEW CELLS                     
EXTENDING INTO ILLINOIS. SFC WARM FRONT SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM NEAR               
THE IA/IL BORDER DOWN TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN IL/IN BORDER (JUST NW OF             
FA). THIS SEEMS TO BE VERIFIED LOOKING AT THE 850MB DEWPOINT FIELD              
ANALYZED BY THE RUC. RECENT ACARS DATA OUT OF SDF SHOWING 700MB TEMP            
OF AROUND 11 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH ILX AND PAH ACARS DATA SHOWING              
MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THUS FA IS STILL CAPPED BUT THAT IS ERODING WEST             
OF THE REGION.                                                                  
AS DAY PROGRESSES...THE REGION SHOULD GET INTO THE WARM                         
SECTOR...HOWEVER THE FRONTAL AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES STAYING OFF TO            
THE NORTH AND WEST. PERHAPS OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING INDIANA CONVECTION             
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK STORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHERN CWA...BUT                 
REALLY THINK ALL PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE CHANCES INCREASE                
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT (NOW              
OVER NW MO). SO WILL KEEP SLT CHC OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA                    
COUNTIES AND WILL REMOVE FROM ALL KY COUNTIES UNTIL THIS EVENING.               
AFTERNOON CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...BUT WILL TRIM BACK CLOUD COVERAGE            
IN THE GRIDS AS WELL. EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK...AND NEAR 90              
DEGREES WILL BE LIKELY OVER MOST PLACES.                                        
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY TO ALSO TAKE OUT MORNING FOG WORDING...AS IT HAS             
BURNED OFF EVERYWHERE.                                                          
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1004 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PATCHY FOG NOW BURNING OFF OUR ERN MOST AND DEEPEST VALLEYS. SAT PIC            
SHOW OTHERWISE CLR SKY. AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOC CLOUD COVER                
PROGRESSING THRU IN/OH. PCPN MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR AS             
IT MOVES EAST AND ESP SE. STILL THINK POSSIBLE SLGHT CHC FOR PCPN               
INTO OUR NRN COUNTIES SO WILL ADD THERE. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT               
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH. UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF FOG AND             
ADD NRN POP/CLOUD. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK...EVEN WITH CLOUDS MOVING                
INTO NRN COUNTIES...TEMPS THERE A COUPLE DEG COOLER THAN FARTHER                
SOUTH. FOR ISC CONCERNS...WILL ADD POP TO OUR WRN/NRN COUNTIES A                
LITTLE EARLIER TONIGHT THAN ORIGINALLY PLANNED. AFTN FCST WILL                  
REVISIT TIMING TONIGHT WITH SYSTEM TO DROP OUT OF NRN PLAINS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
454 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                           
TIMING OF POPS AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR              
THE SHORT TERM.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST TODAY. ONCE THE FOG            
BURNS OFF DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY                       
SUNNY...DESPITE SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. THE CIRRUS               
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT WITH 850 TEMPS                 
AROUND 20C...HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S FOR              
MOST OF THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE A NEW RECORD HIGH AT JKL (RECORD IS              
86)...BUT LOZ (RECORD IS 92) WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT.                     
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME IN TO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING             
OF THE FRONT AND POPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. BEST DYNAMICS SHOULD STAY            
TO THE NORTH...HOWEVER WITH LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS OHIO AND                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE AREA OF THE 300 MB                     
JET...BUMPED UP POPS IN THE BLUEGRASS TO 50% TONIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS            
TO 50% FOR THE REST OF THE AREA TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS             
THE AREA. DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE            
FRONT...AS THE LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. SPC HAS ALSO             
REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK FROM THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH               
THE STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE             
COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT             
WINDS COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE AREA.                                  
EXTENDED GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY AT                
THIS TIME.                                                                      
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT ACROSS E KY.              
LATEST SAT PICS SHOW HIGH CLOUD COVER DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING            
ACROSS THE AREA AS TRAVERSING S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLOUDS DAMPENS            
AND EXITS. ANOTHER COMPLEX OVER NE MO AND WRN PART OF IL WILL LIKELY            
WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST...AND ANY LEFTOVER HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD              
BE PRETTY THIN BY THE TIME IT ENCROACHES ON US. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
USE MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING FOR ALL ZONES. ALL OTHER FORECAST ASPECTS              
LOOK GOOD AND WILL ONLY TWEAK A FEW PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST            
TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
335 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT)...START OF THE PERIOD WILL              
BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL MOVE FROM NRN WV TO OFF                
THE DELMARVA COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING             
AS WELL AS A S/W MVG TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES FORCES RIDGING OUT IN               
FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARM DAY ON MON BEFORE A COLD FRONT              
SWEEPS THRU MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.                                              
S/W MVG ACROSS SRN MO IS MAKING FOR A TOUGHER FORECAST TONIGHT THAN             
I ORIGINALLY PLANNED. RUC80 MODEL SHOWS A VORT OVER SRN IN MOVING               
DUE E. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER SRN IN PRESENTLY. THE              
VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE E OHD WHILE DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING. BELIEVE THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO                  
HINDER FOG FORMATION A LITTLE AND HOLD TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FROM            
WHAT I HAD ORIGINALLY PLANNED TO FORECAST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY                 
POPS THOUGH AS SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE INTO A STABLE                  
ATMOSPHERE W/ A STRONG CAP ALOFT OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL PROBABLY             
CLEAR IN GOOD ENOUGH TIME FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN              
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND FOR TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 50S BUT HELD              
THEM A TAD ABOVE THE COOLEST FWC NUMBERS.                                       
SUNNY AND WARM ON MON AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...OVER 20C AT                      
H85...SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE CLIMO. FOLLOWED THE WARMER MET               
MOS GUIDANCE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD VALUES.             
TOMORROW/S RECORD MAX TEMPS ARE 86F AT JKL AND 92F AT LOZ.                      
FRONT MOVES THRU MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. NAM/GEM SEEM TO BE             
A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE GFS BUT ALL BRING THE FRONT THRU EARLY TUE            
MORNING...NOT A GOOD TIME FOR CONVECTION. MODELS DO SHOW A BAND OF              
CONVECTION MOVING THRU ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING FASHION AND WILL GO                
WITH CHANCE POPS LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. MODIFIED NAM12               
SOUNDING ONLY YIELDS 500 J/KG OR SO OF CAPE AND LIS OF -2C AT THAT              
EARLY MORNING HOUR SO EXPECT A DISSIPATING LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING             
THRU AROUND DAWN. SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLT RISK BUT                    
MENTIONS THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
WILL UPDATE THE HWO AND CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR                 
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE EARLY TUE.                                         
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY               
AND ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT            
BUILDING IN THRU TUE NIGHT. WENT W/ A BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR             
MAX TEMPS ON TUE W/ SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES                
THRU AND WENT WITH THE COOLEST NUMBERS TUE NIGHT WITH DRIER/COOLER              
AIRMASS FILTERING IN.                                                           
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY)...GFS IS MODEL OF CHOICE WHICH HAS             
HIGH PRESS BUILDING INTO REGION BY EARLY WED. BY FRI THE HIGH SITS              
OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH A SW FLOW INTO ERN KY. PLAINS LOW TRACKS                
INTO SRN CANADA WITH A TRAILING COLD FNT TAILING BACK THRU CNTRL IL             
TO THE SPS AREA OF TX. THIS FNT SAGS TO AROUND THE OH RVR BY FRI                
EVENING AND THEN STALLS. PCPN APPEARS TO STALL WITH THE FNT AND                 
REMAINS NORTH OF THE RIVER AS THE FNT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM            
FNT WITH THE PCPN MOVING NORTH AS WELL. TD18 TRACKS ACROSS THE GOMEX            
AND BY THE WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO PUSH GOMEX MOISTURE INTO THE LONE            
STAR STATE. THIS IS STILL TOO FAR AWAY TO AFFECT ERN KY BUT A                   
PRECURSOR TO BRINGING PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE TO OUR CWFA BY THE                  
FOLLOWING WEEK.                                                                 
WITH THE PERSISTENT LLVL SW FLOW OUR DWPTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS              
THE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S THRU MOST OF THE EXTENDED PD. HAVE            
FOLLOWED GFS/GFSLR FOR THE MOST PART FOR TEMPS/DWPTS. EXPECTING A               
FAIRLY GOOD DIURNAL SWING TO CLOUDS AND MORNING FOG SHOULD BE                   
PRESENT ALMOST EVERY NITE/EARLY MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUSTY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1015 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE... WILL UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO REMOVE                  
MORNING FOG WORDING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                          
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN             
GREAT LAKES. THE GULF STATES RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH INTO THE                   
MIDWEST...WHILE THE NEXT WAVE BEGINS TO PRESS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN            
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS               
REVEAL A 80-100KT JET STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH               
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND DIPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 03Z                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1022MB ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.            
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA SOUTHWEST              
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...THEN NORTHWEST TO A 1009MB                 
CYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. A SECOND BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE                
DEVELOPING FROM THE CYCLONE TO EASTERN IOWA...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A 1022MB ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY                 
DOMINATES THE WEATHER BEHIND A COLD/STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                              
PATCHY LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE QUICK TO BURN OFF AROUND                   
SUNRISE AS THE 00Z KIAD RAOB AND RUC MODEL INDICATE THE INVERSION IS            
QUITE SHALLOW (LESS THAN 1KFT). EXPECTING A FEW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP              
DURING THE MID MORNING AS CIRRUS STREAKS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION               
STREAMS IN FOR THE MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EARLY THIS               
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH                  
PUSHES OFF THE COAST. LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT                 
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE RECORDED SUNDAY.              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION            
OVERNIGHT WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVE                   
CONTINUED A 20-30 POP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY                
THAT CONVECTION MAY BE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.              
GRADIENT WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30               
MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. THE COLD                
FRONT WHICH PASSED SATURDAY (AND IS CURRENTLY HUNG UP ALONG THE                 
COAST IN THE CAROLINAS) IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND TO THE WARM ADVECTION            
BY MOVING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND REST FROM CHO TO BWI BY SUNRISE.                  
AMOUNT OF TURBULENCE ATOP THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL SUPPORT                  
STRATUS INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG ALONG THE BOUNDARY (ALTHOUGH MOS                   
GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON LOW STRATUS CAUSING SOME UNCERTAINTY                
DESPITE PATTERN RECOGNITION).                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
GDNC CONTS TO POINT TWD FROPA TUE...AND HV COME INTO MUCH BTTR                  
AGREEMNT ON HOW THIS WL HPPN. H5 S/WV WL REMAIN WELL N OF CWFA...               
TRAVERSING ACRS SRN CNDA...AS WL SFC CYCLONE. HWVR...THIS WL DRAG               
CDFNT THRU MIDDAY/AFTN...AND LINGER ACRS SRN MD INTO ELY EVNG. AMS              
AHD OF CDFNT WL BE WARM AND MARGINALLY UNSTBL...SPCLY CONSIDERING               
TIME OF YR. W/ PRONOUNCED THTE RDG IN PLACE...DECENT UPR DIVGNC...              
GOOD INSTBLTY...PWAT 1.5 INCH PLUS...SFC DEWPTS IN THE 60S...AND                
APPCHG SFC BNDRY...FEEL POPS NEED TO BE MNTND IN THE FCST. INSTBLTY             
MAXIMIZED IN THE E AS TIME OF DAY FVRBL...W/ LI DWN TO -2 AND CAPES             
1000-1500 J/KG. PLUS...20-30 KT H8-9 JET PRESENT TO PROVIDE SOME                
SHEAR. MID LVL FLOW BTTR. THIS CUD ALL COMBINE FOR ISOLD SVR TSTMS.             
SPC CONCURS PER DAY 2 OUTLK.                                                    
CONSIDERING ABV...KEPT POPS LOW...BUT DID ADD THEM BACK INTO THE                
FCST GRIDS. MAV/MET MOS AGREES. MAV LWR OF THE TWO...AND FCST WL                
SIDE TWD IT. BUMPED CLDS UPWD AS WELL AS WAA INDUCED MID DECK AND               
CNVCTV CU SHUD COMBINE TO YIELD MOCLDY SKIES. AMT OF CLDS ULTIMATELY            
WL CNTRL AFTN HEATING...AND THUS DEGREE/CHARACTER OF TSRA.                      
AS ALLUDED TO ABV...KEPT 20/25 POPS E OF I-95 INTO ELY EVE TIL DRIER            
AIR CAN ADVECT SEWD. AS DEWPTS DROP INTO THE 50S TUE NGT...SKIES WL             
PRTLY CLR. HIPRES WL BUILD IN TUE NGT/WED...FOR SVRL DAYS OF                    
MOSUN/CLR SKIES AND DRY CONDS. TEMPS WL RETURN TO NRML.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LIGHT PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH             
SUNRISE. FEW-SCT CU DEVELOP DURING THE MID MORNING...WITH CLOUD                 
BASES CLIMBING TO ABOUT 6FT FOR THE AFTERNOON UNDER STREAMING                   
CIRRUS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL QUICKLY BECOME                
SE/S ABOUT 5KT...REMAINING COUPLED THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE             
NEXT COLD FRONT.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST                
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. HEIGHT/PRESSURE                
GRADIENT INCREASES TONIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. WITH 80               
DEGREE WATER AND 25-35KT WINDS FORECAST ATOP A NOCTURNAL INVERSION              
ON THE ADJACENT LAND SITES PER NAM/GFS BUFKIT FORECAST                          
SOUNDINGS...WILL BE RAISING A SMALL CRAFT FOR 15-20KT SOUTHERLY                 
WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING            
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREDICTED VALUES. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS BEGINNING TO                
WANE FROM A FULL MOON.                                                          
SLY FLOW WL CONT INTO TUE...W/ H10-9 WNDS ABV 20 KT THRU 18Z...SPCLY            
LWR PTMC/MID BAY. WL CONT SCA INTO TUE FOR THESE AREAS. IT WL BE                
CLOSE THO ACRS ALL WATERS.  THEN...CNVCTV ELEMENTS WL ENTER THE                 
PIX...W/ CHC TSRA AFTN-EVE. WNDS/WVS WL BE HIER...AND BASED ON WNDS             
AVBL TO MIX...SMW CRITERIA MAY BE MET INVOF TSRA LT TUE.                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>533-535-536 FROM MIDNIGHT              
         TUESDAY TO 6 AM TUESDAY.                                               
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ534-537 FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY              
         TO 2 PM TUESDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...STRONG                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                        
LONG TERM FORECASTER: HTS                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1027 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A POTENT...VERY                       
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE EXITING ERN UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED            
COMPACT LOW PRES HAS RECENTLY MOVED E OF WHITEFISH BAY. VERY DYNAMIC            
SYSTEM BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF UPPER MI LATE THIS                        
AFTN/EVENING...BUT WINDS ARE NOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FROM W TO E AS             
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED E OF THE AREA AND 3HR PRES RISE MAX HAS MOVED               
INTO UPPER MI IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. SCT -SHRA LINGERING OVER                  
NCNTRL/ERN FCST AREA ARE ALSO WINDING DOWN QUICKLY.                             
EXPECT THE LINGERING SCT -SHRA TO END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS              
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE E QUICKLY. CLEARING UPSTREAM IS NOT                
PROGRESSING E QUITE AS FAST AS THOUGHT. BACK EDGE OF LOW STRATUS IS             
CLOSE TO THE WRN SHORE OF UPPER MI...BUT SCT TO BKN STRATOCU LINGERS            
BACK TO ROUGHLY THE W EDGE OF THE LAKE. FARTHER UPSTREAM...00Z KINL             
SOUNDING DID NOT REVEAL AN ESPECIALLY DRY AIRMASS WITH DWPT                     
DEPRESSIONS ONLY 4-10C UP TO ABOUT 650MB. STILL...EXPECT A GRADUAL              
CLEARING TREND FROM W TO E DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER              
MN ARRIVES OVER UPPER MI AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC. AS FOR             
FOG...WET GROUND AND DIMINISHING WINDS WITH ARRIVAL OF SFC HIGH PRES            
RIDGE SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SINCE                  
UPSTREAM AIRMASS DOES NOT SHOW SHARP DRYING ABOVE THE SFC TO ENHANCE            
RADIATIONAL COOLING...DON'T THINK WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP...AND             
DENSE FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS.              
GOING FCST WHICH LIMITS PATCHY FOG TO INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI               
LOOKS ON TRACK AS 00Z RUC/NAM SHOW NW WINDS OF 20-25KT AT 950MB THRU            
12Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT.                                                
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW                    
PREVAILING ALG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE SRN              
STATES. SVRL SHRTWS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE FIRST            
OF THESE IS IN NRN WI WITHIN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX N OF LK SUP.               
DIFFLUENT H3 FLOW OVR THE FA AND DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
AS WELL AS BAND OF H7-6 FRONTOGENESIS N OF SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT            
IN CNTRL WI HAS OVERCOME MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB SDNG              
TO GENERATE SHRA/ISOLD +TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE FA. RAINFALL RATES                
HAVE REACHED 0.50 INCH/HR AT A FEW SPOTS. PRES FALLS UP TO 4MB/3HR              
NOTED ACRS WI AHEAD OF THE SFC LO. SOME DRYING NOTED OVER NW WI/WRN             
CWA WHERE THE PCPN HAS DIMINISHED THE PAST FEW HRS...BUT ANOTHER                
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD OVER ERN MN WHERE DPVA AHEAD OF A                   
TRAILING SHRTWV HAS INTERACTED WITH RICH MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z                  
INL/MPX SDNGS (1.41 INCH PWAT AT MPX CLOSE TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL).               
THIS PCPN APRCHG THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC HI PRES APRNT OVER            
THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE PLAINS SHRTWV.             
12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALF...AND PLENTY OF FOG FORMED             
OVER THE LINGERING LLVL MSTR ACRS THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE SFC HI               
EARLIER THIS MRNG. NEXT SHRTWV IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALF MOVING INTO                
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS AFTN.                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN TRENDS/WINDS THIS             
EVNG...THEN FOG COVG OVRNGT.                                                    
FOR TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO NOW              
IN CNTRL WI REACHING NRN LK MI BY 00Z AND THEN WRN QUEBEC BY 12Z                
TUE. EXPECT AN AREA OF LOCALLY HVY RA TO MARCH ACRS THE FA LATE THIS            
AFTN BEFORE EXITING THIS EVNG WITH DEPARTURE OF DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV            
COMPLEX/UPR DVGC/SFC LO/H7-6 FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE                
SOME HVY RA...THE CNVCTN SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENUF TO AVOID ANY                
HYDRO PROBLEMS. SFC LO FCST TO INTENSITY SHARPLY AS IT MOVES TO NRN             
LK MI...SO EXPECT SOME BRIEF GUSTY NNW WINDS OVER IN THE TIGHT CYC              
FLOW ARND THE LO CENTER WHERE GFS SHOWS H925 WINDS REACHING 45KT.               
ISALLOBARIC WIND AT 90 DEGREES TO FCST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD MITIGATE            
SFC WIND SPEED INCRS. THEN PRES GRADIENT FCST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY                 
OVRNGT IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDGING FM THE W AND ARRIVAL OF SFC HI               
PRES. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE W ARRIVING ALF OVERNGT/CLRG SKIES OVER              
WET GROUND AND SFC WINDS GOING LGT WITH SFC RDG AXIS PROGGED OVER               
THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z TUE...EXPECT PTCHY FOG TO DVLP OVER AT LEAST               
THE W AS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH FOG MAY BCM LOCALLY                 
DENSE AT SOME SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS OVER THE W...STRENGTH OF               
FCST H925 WINDS ARND 15KT THRU 12Z SHOULD LIMIT COVG OF FOG TO JUST             
THE INTERIOR W HALF.                                                            
TUE LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF DRIVING DRY AIR              
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. SHRTWV NOW ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA PROGGED              
TO MOVE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 00Z WED. BUT SHEARED NATURE            
OF SYS WITH DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC TRACKING WELL TO N IN THE ABSENCE OF             
MUCH MSTR SUG THERE WL BE LTL IMPACT OTHER THAN PTCHY CLD OVER THE              
FA EVEN THOUGH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT/LO PRES TROF MOVES INTO THE               
AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MIXING TO H8 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS MAX             
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE LLVL WLY FLOW WL                     
DOWNSLOPE AND WARM. EXPECT A QUIET NGT ON TUE NGT WITH HI PRES RDG              
BLDG OVER THE UPR GRT LKS IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FROPA. DRY NATURE OF             
AIRMASS AND FAIRLY STRG H925 NW FLOW WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL/                
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.                                                              
ON WED...GFS/UKMET ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AT PUSHING SFC HI PRES RDG              
TO THE E. NAM HOLDS SFC HI ARND LONGER...BUT FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF                
SUGS GFS/UKMET SOLN PROBABLY A BETTER BET. IN FACT...GFS SHOWS                  
RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC HI BOOSTING H85 DWPT UP TO                
12C/SSI DOWN TO -4C BY 00Z THU UNDER DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                 
STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 7C/KM. UKMET/GFS BOTH GENERATE SOME LGT             
PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY...SO HAVE               
GONE WITH A 20 POP FOR ISOLD SHRA PER GFS MOS POPS OVER THE W HALF.             
BUT DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS/PLACEMENT OF FA IN UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF             
UPR JET TO THE NW WL RESTRICT PCPN CHCS. GFS/UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPS               
RISING TO 14C OR SO ALG THE WI BORDER LATE IN THE DAY ON WED...SO               
THINK MAX TEMPS WL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S AND CLOSE TO GFS MOS               
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR WED NGT THRU THU...OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW FRONTOGENESIS OVER               
THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DIFFER SHARPLY ON TRACK OF WAVE THAT IS FCST              
TO MOVE ENE ALG THIS BNDRY. ECMWF/UKMET ARE A BIT FARTHER N THAN                
NAM/GFS/CNDN AND APPEAR TO TRACK A FLAT SFC LO TO NR MNM AT SOME                
POINT DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT RDG TO THE S...WL TEND               
TOWARD THE FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UKMET/ECMWF. WL GO WITH CHC POPS              
FOR THE WED NGT/THU PD WITH HIER POPS ACRS THE SCNTRL. FCST TEMPS               
AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                           
IN THE EXTENDED PD...UPR HGTS REBOUND OVER THE GRT LKS IN THE WAKE              
OF THU LO ON TOP OF PERSISTENT MEAN RDG ACRS THE SE CONUS AND                   
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE W. EXPECT FRI TO BE DRY               
AND SEASONABLE WITH NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND H85              
TEMPS 8-10C. WL FOLLOW NEW ECMWF OUTPUT VS 12Z GFS (WHICH SHOWS WHAT            
APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV CAUSING PCPN OVER THE SRN             
TIER ALG BNDRY TO THE S). DRY WX WL LINGER INTO SAT WITH HI PRES                
OVER ONTARIO HOLDING ITS GRND...BUT WAD PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV             
ENTERING CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN BIG RDG TO THE S AND MORE WNW FLOW ALF              
ACRS CNTRL CAN WL RETURN RA CHCS BY THE AFTN. LOOK FOR RA CHCS TO               
LINGER INTO SUN BEFORE HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE             
DAY AND ON MON. GIVEN ABV NORMAL HGTS...EXPECT TEMPS IN GENERAL THE             
NEXT WEEK TO AVERAGE HIER THAN USUAL (ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS).                    
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
KC (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW                    
PREVAILING ALG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE SRN              
STATES. SVRL SHRTWS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW. THE FIRST            
OF THESE IS IN NRN WI WITHIN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX N OF LK SUP.               
DIFFLUENT H3 FLOW OVR THE FA AND DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC              
AS WELL AS BAND OF H7-6 FRONTOGENESIS N OF SFC LO/ATTENDANT WARM FNT            
IN CNTRL WI HAS OVERCOME MID LVL DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE 12Z GRB SDNG              
TO GENERATE SHRA/ISOLD +TSRA OVER MUCH OF THE FA. RAINFALL RATES                
HAVE REACHED 0.50 INCH/HR AT A FEW SPOTS. PRES FALLS UP TO 4MB/3HR              
NOTED ACRS WI AHEAD OF THE SFC LO. SOME DRYING NOTED OVER NW WI/WRN             
CWA WHERE THE PCPN HAS DIMINISHED THE PAST FEW HRS...BUT ANOTHER                
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA HAS DVLPD OVER ERN MN WHERE DPVA AHEAD OF A                   
TRAILING SHRTWV HAS INTERACTED WITH RICH MSTR SHOWN ON THE 12Z                  
INL/MPX SDNGS (1.41 INCH PWAT AT MPX CLOSE TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL).               
THIS PCPN APRCHG THE WRN ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN. SFC HI PRES APRNT OVER            
THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDG TRAILING THE PLAINS SHRTWV.             
12Z BIS SDNG SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRYING ALF...AND PLENTY OF FOG FORMED             
OVER THE LINGERING LLVL MSTR ACRS THE NRN PLAINS UNDER THE SFC HI               
EARLIER THIS MRNG. NEXT SHRTWV IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALF MOVING INTO                
BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS AFTN.                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN TRENDS/WINDS THIS             
EVNG...THEN FOG COVG OVRNGT.                                                    
FOR TNGT...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO NOW              
IN CNTRL WI REACHING NRN LK MI BY 00Z AND THEN WRN QUEBEC BY 12Z                
TUE. EXPECT AN AREA OF LOCALLY HVY RA TO MARCH ACRS THE FA LATE THIS            
AFTN BEFORE EXITING THIS EVNG WITH DEPARTURE OF DPVA AHEAD OF SHRTWV            
COMPLEX/UPR DVGC/SFC LO/H7-6 FRONTOGENESIS. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE                
SOME HVY RA...THE CNVCTN SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENUF TO AVOID ANY                
HYDRO PROBLEMS. SFC LO FCST TO INTENSITY SHARPLY AS IT MOVES TO NRN             
LK MI...SO EXPECT SOME BRIEF GUSTY NNW WINDS OVER IN THE TIGHT CYC              
FLOW ARND THE LO CENTER WHERE GFS SHOWS H925 WINDS REACHING 45KT.               
ISALLOBARIC WIND AT 90 DEGREES TO FCST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD MITIGATE            
SFC WIND SPEED INCRS. THEN PRES GRADIENT FCST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY                 
OVRNGT IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV RDGING FM THE W AND ARRIVAL OF SFC HI               
PRES. WITH DRIER AIR TO THE W ARRIVING ALF OVERNGT/CLRG SKIES OVER              
WET GROUND AND SFC WINDS GOING LGT WITH SFC RDG AXIS PROGGED OVER               
THE CNTRL ZNS BY 12Z TUE...EXPECT PTCHY FOG TO DVLP OVER AT LEAST               
THE W AS OBSVD UPSTREAM THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH FOG MAY BCM LOCALLY                 
DENSE AT SOME SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS OVER THE W...STRENGTH OF               
FCST H925 WINDS ARND 15KT THRU 12Z SHOULD LIMIT COVG OF FOG TO JUST             
THE INTERIOR W HALF.                                                            
TUE LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF DRIVING DRY AIR              
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. SHRTWV NOW ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA PROGGED              
TO MOVE INTO ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BY 00Z WED. BUT SHEARED NATURE            
OF SYS WITH DPVA/QVECTOR CNVGC TRACKING WELL TO N IN THE ABSENCE OF             
MUCH MSTR SUG THERE WL BE LTL IMPACT OTHER THAN PTCHY CLD OVER THE              
FA EVEN THOUGH ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT/LO PRES TROF MOVES INTO THE               
AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MIXING TO H8 ON NAM/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS MAX             
TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S OVER THE SCNTRL WHERE LLVL WLY FLOW WL                     
DOWNSLOPE AND WARM. EXPECT A QUIET NGT ON TUE NGT WITH HI PRES RDG              
BLDG OVER THE UPR GRT LKS IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FROPA. DRY NATURE OF             
AIRMASS AND FAIRLY STRG H925 NW FLOW WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP FALL/                
POTENTIAL FOR FOG.                                                              
ON WED...GFS/UKMET ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AT PUSHING SFC HI PRES RDG              
TO THE E. NAM HOLDS SFC HI ARND LONGER...BUT FAST ZONAL FLOW ALF                
SUGS GFS/UKMET SOLN PROBABLY A BETTER BET. IN FACT...GFS SHOWS                  
RETURN SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC HI BOOSTING H85 DWPT UP TO                
12C/SSI DOWN TO -4C BY 00Z THU UNDER DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                 
STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES ARND 7C/KM. UKMET/GFS BOTH GENERATE SOME LGT             
PCPN OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF THE FA LATE IN THE DAY...SO HAVE               
GONE WITH A 20 POP FOR ISOLD SHRA PER GFS MOS POPS OVER THE W HALF.             
BUT DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS/PLACEMENT OF FA IN UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF             
UPR JET TO THE NW WL RESTRICT PCPN CHCS. GFS/UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPS               
RISING TO 14C OR SO ALG THE WI BORDER LATE IN THE DAY ON WED...SO               
THINK MAX TEMPS WL RECOVER WELL INTO THE 70S AND CLOSE TO GFS MOS               
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR WED NGT THRU THU...OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW FRONTOGENESIS OVER               
THE UPR GRT LKS...BUT DIFFER SHARPLY ON TRACK OF WAVE THAT IS FCST              
TO MOVE ENE ALG THIS BNDRY. ECMWF/UKMET ARE A BIT FARTHER N THAN                
NAM/GFS/CNDN AND APPEAR TO TRACK A FLAT SFC LO TO NR MNM AT SOME                
POINT DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT RDG TO THE S...WL TEND               
TOWARD THE FARTHER N TRACK OF THE UKMET/ECMWF. WL GO WITH CHC POPS              
FOR THE WED NGT/THU PD WITH HIER POPS ACRS THE SCNTRL. FCST TEMPS               
AOA GFS MOS GUIDANCE.                                                           
IN THE EXTENDED PD...UPR HGTS REBOUND OVER THE GRT LKS IN THE WAKE              
OF THU LO ON TOP OF PERSISTENT MEAN RDG ACRS THE SE CONUS AND                   
DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE W. EXPECT FRI TO BE DRY               
AND SEASONABLE WITH NE FLOW TO THE S OF HI PRES IN ONTARIO AND H85              
TEMPS 8-10C. WL FOLLOW NEW ECMWF OUTPUT VS 12Z GFS (WHICH SHOWS WHAT            
APPEARS TO BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV CAUSING PCPN OVER THE SRN             
TIER ALG BNDRY TO THE S). DRY WX WL LINGER INTO SAT WITH HI PRES                
OVER ONTARIO HOLDING ITS GRND...BUT WAD PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV             
ENTERING CONFLUENCE ZN BTWN BIG RDG TO THE S AND MORE WNW FLOW ALF              
ACRS CNTRL CAN WL RETURN RA CHCS BY THE AFTN. LOOK FOR RA CHCS TO               
LINGER INTO SUN BEFORE HI PRES BLDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE             
DAY AND ON MON. GIVEN ABV NORMAL HGTS...EXPECT TEMPS IN GENERAL THE             
NEXT WEEK TO AVERAGE HIER THAN USUAL (ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS).                    
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1148 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE CONCERNS ON QPF AMOUNTS AND WINDS                                        
CURRENT WEATHER...15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH NEARLY                
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.. HOWEVER THERE IS A             
SHRTWV TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS ZONAL FLOW WHICH IS OVER                      
MINNESOTA. IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV WAS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND            
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SOUTHWARD DOWN             
I-35 TO HINCKLEY ON KDLH RADAR. AHEAD OF THIS LINE WAS A MORE BROAD             
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER                    
MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC              
LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. SOME OF THE RAIN HAS COME DOWN                
PARTICULARLY HEAVY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALREADY APPROACHING ONE                
HALF OF AN INCH HERE AT THE OFFICE AT THE MOMENT. THERE DOES APPEAR             
TO BE SOME LET UP OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BUT            
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHRTWV...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPORARY.              
ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS. AT 250MB AT 12Z THERE             
WAS A 90 KT JET OVER NEBRASKA WITH ANOTHER 90 KT JET OVER                       
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB WAS               
LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF LACROSSE WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS ON            
THE ORDER OF 1 MB/HR LOCATED NEAR APPLETON WISCONSIN.                           
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE ITS                  
EASTWARD MOVEMENT...CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. MANY                
FACTORS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. FIRST            
WILL BE THE DYNAMICAL FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV ITSELF. NEXT IS               
UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE TWO UPPER LEVEL JETS HEADING NORTHEASTWARD            
TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN (COUPLED JET STRUCTURE). THIRD WILL BE THE               
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH. FOURTH...PRECIPITABLE               
WATER IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.4 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY 200 PERCENT            
OF NORMAL. FINALLY...INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS WILL RESULT IN                    
ADDITIONAL LIFT. THESE ALL APPEAR TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS WESTERN AND            
NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH IS SHOWN BY THE 06Z/12Z NAM AND            
12Z RUC. HAVE FOLLOWED QPF AMOUNTS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE 12Z NAM               
WHICH INDICATES UPWARDS OF 1-2 INCHES OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER                  
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 18-00Z. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO AID IN DEEPENING               
THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/STRAITS             
OF MACKINAC AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING WINDS TO                              
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 19-02Z PERIOD OVER EASTERN LAKE              
SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES             
AND GALE WARNING ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LOOK REASONABLE.                     
WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SHRTWV TROUGH...SHOULD NOT HAVE TO            
WORRY ABOUT ANY FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY SINCE A LOT OF THIS              
RAIN IS GOING OVER PLACES THAT HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY DRY.                      
ALSO...RAIN WILL PROBABLY CUT OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND THIS                 
TREND CAN ALREADY BE SEEN BEHIND THE SHRTWV WHERE EVEN SKIES CLEAR              
OUT PRETTY QUICK. WITH THE BIG DRYING TAKING PLACE (SEEN ON THE BIS             
SOUNDING)...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN AS IT WAS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.              
MAY CHANGE THE PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ON THE NEXT FORECAST            
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FOR TUESDAY...LOOKS VERY WARM WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 14C AND            
MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC GIVES ME LOWER 80S. THIS SEEMS POSSIBLE             
WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND WHICH WOULD AID IN SOME DOWNSLOPE...BUT              
WENT UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS AS SUN ANGLE IS WEAK THIS TIME OF YEAR AND             
MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO MIX UP TO 850 MB TOO MUCH LONGER. ALSO SEEMS               
LIKE A WEAK DRY FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE ON TUESDAY BASED ON                    
1000-500 MB THICKNESS PACKING AS THICKNESSES LOWER SLIGHTLY FOR WED.            
FOR THIS REASON...BELIEVE TUE WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK               
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR WED...BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE              
NORMAL.                                                                         
PULLED POPS OUT OF THE WEST FOR EARLY WED NIGHT AS SEEMS LIKE WITH              
ZONAL FLOW...THE MID LEVELS WOULD START OUT DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME              
TIME TO MOISTEN THESE UP. PUSHED TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BACK                 
ABOUT 6-12 HOURS BECAUSE OF POSSIBILITY OF DRY MID LEVELS. OTHER                
THAN THAT...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING LMZ248 TONIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ (DISCUSSION)                                                                 
MICHELS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1112 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
AT THIS POINT IT WOULD SEEM THE BEST SHOT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS              
WOULD BE FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH. THAT IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE OF              
THE NAM AND RUC PLUS LOOKING AT THE AREA OF STRATUS OVER NRN IL...WI            
AND ERN MN BEHIND THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN             
THAT IS A COMPOSITE OF THE 400 TO 200 MB DIVERGENCE FIELDS FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON. IT SHOWS THE BEST DIVERGENCE (SOUTHWEST OF THE JET CORE)             
HEADING ACROSS NRN IN INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY 03Z.  MOST             
OF THE GRR CWA HAS UPPER LEVEL SINKING AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH.              
THE RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN                 
10000 AND 15000 FT MOST OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN CWA.            
THUS I DO NOT AT THIS TIME FEEL WE HAVE MUCH CHANCE OF SEVERE                   
HERE... MAYBE THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL THE             
40 KNOT LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND THE 100 KNOT JET CORE HEADING EAST                 
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (INTERSTATE 94) AS THE                 
FRONT COMES THROUGH. THERE IS STILL 50 TO 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER                
SHEAR OVER ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS I CAN NOT TOTALLY                
DISCOUNT THE RISK OF SEVERE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.  EVEN ON THE RUC IF            
WE CAN GET 80F TEMP WITH A 68F DEW POINT USING THE RUC SOUNDING THIS            
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SEVERE STORMS ON THE FRONT.                              
SO BOTTOM LINE IS I WILL DROP AFTERNOON POP TO SCT BEHIND THIS LINE             
OF WARM ADVECTION PCPN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.                                  
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS FINE AS IS.                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT             
FROM ST. JOSEPH TO MANISTEE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BEACHLER MEADE WDM                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
328 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING 94-98F OVER A WIDE AREA AS SUMMER HEAT                 
HOLDING ON FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. MID-UPPER LEVEL MASSIVE ANTICYCLONE             
SITTING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING PROGGED BY LATEST RUC             
RUNS TO BEGIN RETROGRADING WWD TONIGHT. WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE AXIS               
FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL/SRN MS VIRTUALLY DISINTEGRATES             
AS 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM NE/IA INTO THE TN VALLEY BY                
TUESDAY EVENING. BEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STAYS           
ALONG I-40 WITH THIS TROUGH AND WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING ANY TSRA               
MAKING A SWD PUSH TO THE GRENADA...STARKVILLE...COLUMBUS AREAS FOR              
NOW. MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN NERN CWFA TUESDAY EVENING           
BUT OVERALL STILL A DRY AND CLEAR FORECAST WITH HOT AFTERNOONS./40/             
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED              
IS TROPICAL STORM RITA WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE THIS                
EVENING ACCORDING THE NHC. IN THE MEANTIME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE               
CONTINUING TO RETROGRADE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FILTER BACK            
IN ESPECIALLY AFTER A WEAK DRY FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH BY                
WEDNESDAY. H850 TEMPS WILL COOL TO 18C ON WED AND THUS ALLOWING FOR             
HIGHS TO BE LOWER THAN 95 ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
THE WEAK FRONT WILL WEAKEN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE           
RIDGE RETROGRADES WITH FALLING HEIGHTS. WILL GO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN            
MEX TEMPS. WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN MAV IS SHOWING...ESPECIALLY             
IN THE NW WHERE THE MAV IS SHOWING 97 AT KGWO...THIS IS A LITTLE HIGH           
AND WILL CUT TEMPS BY AT LEAST 3-4 DEGREES AT MOST PLACES.                      
THIS FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR AND THIS WILL HELP LOWS DROP BACK            
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA             
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH                  
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY BUT THIS ALL         
MAY CHANGE COME FRIDAY AS RITA MAY BEGIN TO HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON              
OUR AREA...WITH RAIN AND COOLER HIGHS OVER THE AREA DUE TO CLOUD                
COVER.                                                                          
AS FOR RITA...MEDIUM RANGE AND HURRICANE MODELS HAVE SENT THE PREDICTED         
TRACK FARTHER NORTH DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WHICH HAS CAUSED THE NHC         
TRACK TO ADJUST ITS COURSE FARTHER NORTH. THERE ARE STILL MANY                  
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHERE RITA WILL GO. AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND              
HURRICANE MODELS HAD LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM BROWNSVILLE TO SOUTH                
CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY.  THE MAIN REASONS FOR THIS IS                    
PROBABLY DUE TO THE FORWARD MOTION OF RITA WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER             
WITH EACH RUN. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF                  
MEXICO TO RETROGRADE MORE AND WEAKEN THAN THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE               
OVER THE SE CONUS TO INDUCE RECURVATURE AND A FARTHER NORTH TRACK.              
NHC OFFICIAL TRACK HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO                
BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HRS FROM NOW...AND PUTS IT NEAR HOUSTON BY                   
SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z ECMWF FALLS VIRTUALLY ON THE OFFICIAL TRACK           
AS DOES THE 12Z GFS WHICH BRINGS RITA TO GALVESTON BAY AT 18Z                   
SATURDAY. THEN RITA MOVES NORTH OVER THE ARKLATX THEN TO NORTHEAST              
ARKANSAS WITH A DEEPER SURFACE LOW...BUT STILL BRINGS SOME RAIN OVER            
THE OUR CWFA.                                                                   
NOW WHAT EFFECTS WILL ALL OF THIS HAVE ON OUR FORECAST...WELL IF LANDFALL       
IS THIS WEEKEND AND BEING ON THE NORTH AND THEN EAST SIDE OF RITA WE            
WILL LIKELY SEE A DECENT SHOT OF SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS THE CWA.                  
DEPENDING ON THE SITE OF LANDFALL WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS         
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POSSIBLE                  
SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING TORNADOES AS WAS SEEN IN GEORGIA WITH                  
KATRINA. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON RITA. ALL CONCERNS           
ONCE AGAIN NEED TO FOCUS ON RITA AS THE TREND SEEMS TO BE SETTLING IN           
ON THE UPPER TX COAST. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOUT               
THE SAME AND INCREASE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND./17/                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CUMULUS 4-5K FEET DISSIPATING BEFORE            
00Z. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 05Z WHEN SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG COULD            
DEVELOP AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS OF KMEI...KHBG. THE FOG/HAZE SHOULD BE           
WIDESPREAD AT 3-4SM AGAIN BY 10Z AND COULD PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER IN           
THE MORNING UNTIL 15Z OR SO BEFORE CLEARING OUT. WIND FIELDS VERY               
WEAK THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A N TO S DRIFT POSSIBLE./40/             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       72  98  71  94 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      67  98  67  94 /   0   0  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
254 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE TWO PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE ARE THE AREAL            
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE                     
POTENTIAL INFLUENCES OF SOON TO BE HURRICANE RITA LATE THIS WEEKEND             
INTO MONDAY.                                                                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED A 2C CAP IN PLACE                   
BETWEEN 700 AND 750 MB.  THIS LAYER WAS ALSO VERY DRY (-17C                     
DP)...BUT LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS...IT APPEARS TO BE VERY                      
LOCALIZED. RUC PROGS WOULD SUPPORT THIS...WITH A NARROW TONGUE OF               
DRY AIR IN THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER ADVECTING NEWD INTO SW MO AROUND             
MIDDAY TODAY. RUC THEN TAKES THE DRY LAYER AND SWEEPS IT EASTWARD               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TEMPS COOL BY ABOUT 2C. THIS SHOULD BE                 
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO PUNCH THROUGH                    
WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG                   
REMAINS INTO THE EVENING...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO            
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAPE DOES              
EXTEND ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...SO LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT. MAY GET                
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS BEFORE THE SURFACE COOLS THIS                      
EVENING...AS WINDEX SHOWS GUSTS TO 59 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                           
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ARKANSAS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD. TUESDAY MAY SEE THE                 
REMAINS OF THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER WITH               
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL BE              
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE             
FORMATION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WEST                    
COAST...THE VERY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE             
EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE               
RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE MUCH OF A DENT             
IN THE RIDGE AT OUR LATITUDE...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD             
STALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND             
DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.                      
THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH                
RITA. LATEST TPC LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON WOULD STILL GIVE SW AND                
ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL MO A SHOT AT HEAVY RAIN AS THE REMAINS OF              
THE SYSTEM PASS BY. ANY FURTHER SHIFTS EASTWARD...LETS NOT EVEN                 
THINK ABOUT THAT!...WOULD LIKELY LEAVE SW MO ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE             
STORM. WILL EASE INTO THIS...AND JUST GO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
BROWNING                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM                 
SOUTHERN IA TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. MAIN CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH THE              
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT               
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE THE                         
ISSUE...DESPITE MODERATE CAP. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN PREDOMINATELY             
VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE MENTION OF CB'S IN THE KSGF/KJLN TAFS LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE THINKING THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE            
BETTER NORTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES WHERE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE              
WEAKER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR            
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.                                      
DSA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1000 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION LIMPED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLIER            
THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE VERY LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY              
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THOUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND            
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR.                              
IN FACT...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF BGM, YYZ AND ERI SHOW THAT THE                
AIRMASS WILL NEED SOME HELP SYNOPTICALLY TO GET ANY DECENT                      
CONVECTION GOING. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE NOT VERY UNSTABLE AT ALL...              
WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE LAYER FOUND FROM ABOUT 700 TO 500MB.                     
IT WAS EARLIER BELIEVED THAT THE APPROACHING 110KT H25 JET WOULD ADD            
SUCH LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE                 
BRINGS THE AXIS OF THE JET DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS              
WOULD KEEP THE FAVORED LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION AND RIGHT REAR                    
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET ENHANCED LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH                 
RESPECTIVELY. THE INCOMING NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SAME.                      
WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT TO THE                     
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL TWEAK                     
CONTINUITY TO DOWNPLAY CONVECTION FOR MOST REGIONS (IAG FRONTIER,               
GENESEE VALLEY, FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO)...BUT WILL               
KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR -SHRA. MEANWHILE THE LIKELY POPS FOR TSRA/SHRA             
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE LEFT INTACT.                                   
TEMPS WILL BE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FOR THE                     
OVERNIGHT GIVEN WAA AND RELATIVELY HIGH TD'S.                                   
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND                
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...                    
ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP.                                   
EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS AND NOT LINGER AFTER DAYBREAK EXCEPT FOR THE THREE EASTERN                
LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES...THEN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 19Z                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
AN EXPANSIVE HIGH WITH COOLER AND DRY AIR THEN BUILDS ACROSS OHIO               
VALLEY AND EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL              
KEEP THE AREA FREE OF PRECIP WITH LITTLE MORE THAN HIGH THIN CLOUDS.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
A RATHER MODERATE ZONAL FLOW COUPLED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING               
WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY                
NIGHT WILL MAKE AT LEAST CHANCE POPS NECESSARY FOR THAT TIME FRAME.             
IT APPEARS THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH                   
SATURDAY FOR AWHILE BUT EDGE NORTHWARD AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                 
THEREFORE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IS A POSSIBILITY. TEMPERATURES             
FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AGAIN                
TOWARDS MORNING.                                                                
THE WIND FIELD BECOMES QUITE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 40 KNOT             
LOW LEVEL JET PROGGED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES                
WILL GUST OVER 25 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL PRODUCE                 
RATHER WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT             
INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR ALL                  
SECTIONS OF OUR NEARSHORE FORECASTS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY                            
LEZ020-040-041 AND FOR TUESDAY LOZ042>045 AND SLZ022.                           
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
SHORT TERM...HIBBERT                                                            
LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...SAGE                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
340 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                      
LOOKS LIKE PRIMO CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...POSSIBLY            
DENSE TOWARD SUNRISE. A REPEAT OF THIS MONDAY MORNING...EXCEPT                  
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL VISIBILITIES. WILL LET              
EVENING SHIFT LOOK AT THE 00Z RAOB...TO AID IN A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG            
ADVISORY ISSUANCE.                                                              
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY BUT NOT ENUF TO PLACE IN             
ZONES. S/W MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO                
MOVE TO THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. WILL PLACE 30 POPS FOR ENTIRE FA            
ON WED...WITH SHRA ALONG ADJACENT WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED                
MORNING. TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA TO PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...               
AND WILL SEE A SMALL WINDOW OF SWELL FROM HER LATE TUE INTO WED.                
CULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED RIP POTENTIAL.                             
TEMPS TO REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE SHORT TERM.               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
WILL CONTINUE THE 30 POPS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO                   
LEFTOVER SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...AND WHATS            
LEFT OF THE MID LEVEL S/W TROF.                                                 
FOR FRIDAY THRU MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE TO BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER                 
FEATURE THRU THIS PERIOD. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO RESIDE ACROSS THE               
REGION THRU THIS PERIOD. SHULD BE CAPPING IN THE MID LEVELS...500MB             
TO 700 MB...TO PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL EXTENT TO THE DIURNAL CU AND               
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION THRU THIS PERIOD. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES             
OCCUR WILL BE THE NOCTURNAL GULF STREAM INDUCED VARIETY. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION...WHICH SHULD KEEP THEM             
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ONLY POSSIBLE PCPN WILL BE FROM THIS                  
NOCTURNAL ACTION THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CLOSE ENUF TO              
THE COAST...WHERE STORM MOTIONS FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW              
THEM TO DRIFT TO LAND.                                                          
TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE SWELLS TO MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN LATE              
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS LOOK MORE PRONOUNCED               
THAN RITA. THIS WILL ALSO RAISE THE RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL.                      
TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD TO REMAIN 5 TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE             
NORMAL.                                                                         
GFS INDICATES BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST               
TRUE COLD FRONT THAT CULD POTENTIALLY BRING AUTUMN LIKE TEMPERATURES            
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITES. WE SHALL             
SEE.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT INEPT WIND MAGNITUDES               
ACROSS ALL OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO                
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WITH THE CIRCULATION FROM              
RITA REMAINING DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH...SURFACE                      
FEATURES/FORCING WARRANT KEEPING MAGNITUDES UNDER TEN KNOTS THROUGH             
THE FORECAST.                                                                   
WAVE FORECAST REQUIRES A LITTLE MORE TLC...AS GLANCING SWELL FROM               
RITA ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND                  
WAVEWATCH SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PLACEMENT...MOVEMENT OF             
THE TROPICAL STORM....WITH FOUR TO FIVE FEET DEPICTED BEGINNING LATE            
TUESDAY. THESE VALUES GET REINFORECD LATE IN THE PERIOD BY SWELL                
FROM PHILIPPE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO FIRE. HAVE               
RELEGATED IT TO JUST VC WITH TEMPO GROUPS ALONG COASTAL TERMS. AGREE            
WITH RUC THAT FLO HAS TROUBLE GETTING IN ON THE ACTION. FORECAST                
TONIGHT MOSTLY PERSISTENCE ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FROM                  
GUIDANCE AS WELL. MOST TERMINALS SHOULD FALL TO IFR WITH FOG AND                
STRATUS AOA 06Z. FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT              
ANY TERMINAL SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PREDAWN                 
HOURS. ONCE THE FOG LIFTS THE HAZE WILL STILL PERSIST, BORDERING ON             
MVFR AT ALMOST ANY TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
MARINE...KEEBLERSTEPHEN                                                         
AVIATION...BACONMARK                                                            
SHORT TERM...HOEHLERDOUGLAS                                                     
LONG TERM...HOEHLERDOUGLAS                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1032 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS                       
AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE 700 MB PER 12Z MHX                       
SOUNDING...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NVA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE               
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-                
MID 70S AND DECENT CAPE VALUES. ADDITIONALLY...THE RUC40 SHOWS E                
OR NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FAVOR A SLOW               
MOVING SEABREEZE...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE LOCAL              
GEOGRAPHY AND WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE A BIT COOLER. THE SURFACE                   
WINDS APPEAR TOO WEAK...HOWEVER...FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEABREEZE                 
LIFT T0 DEVELOP...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR                      
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE TO MENTION               
POPS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO LOWERED SKY COVER AND UPDATED T AND TD               
TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE INLAND                     
CWA THIS MORNING. WITH A DRIER OVERALL SOUNDING AS COMPARED TO                  
RECENT DAYS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE H8 THIS MORNING...ANTICIPATE THIS                
DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN AND GRADUALLY ERODE THESE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR             
CEILINGS THRU THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...VERY BENIGN CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING                   
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WEAK                
WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH TO ALONG A CAPE LOOKOUT TO                  
KINSTON. AS A RESULT...WILL GENERALLY HAVE A NE/E WINDS ACROSS                  
MUCH OF THE WATERS THRU THE AFTERNOON.                                          
&&                                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS...QUITE MARGINAL AS FAR AS THE MODERATE THREAT                    
OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LONG PERIODS...SEAS                     
ONLY ABOUT 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR                      
LESS. ONLY POSITIVE FACTOR IS THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.                      
WILL KEEP MODERATE...BUT WILL EXPLORE A REDUCTION TO LOW                        
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
AVIATION...COLLINS                                                              
MARINE...COLLINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
135 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
WARM FRONT CURRENTLY APPRAOCHING NW OH. ELEVATED STORMS HAVE                    
DEVELOPED NR THE WARM FRONT WHICH THE MDLS REALLY DID NOT HAVE A                
GOOD HANDLE ON. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS STABLE OVER THE AREA                        
ATTM...STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE             
MID LVLS AND CREATE THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT IS UNCLEAR                   
WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WL MAKE IT ALL AWAY ACROSS TO ERI/CLE/YNG THIS            
AFTN...BUT IT SHOULD MAKE IT TO TOL AND FDY IN THE NEXT COULD OF                
HRS. OTHER THAN THAT...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD                
FRONT THIS EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT. WILL            
BRING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR IN TSRA...BUT THE NAM SUGGESTS RAPID                
CLEARING BY 15Z TMRW.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
CLOUD COVER INCREASED QUICKLY ACROSS FCST AREA THIS MORN BUT STILL              
APPEARS THIN IN SOME SPOTS. SHWRS AND TSTMS NOT MAKING MUCH EASTWARD            
PROGRESS. JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ZFP SINCE FOG HAS DISSIPATED.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CONDITIONS MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING. IN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS                   
WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLDS MOVING IN FROM                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER IL AND IN. BROUGHT IN                     
POSSIBLITY OF -SHRA LATER THIS AM IN TOL AND FDY. ETA AND RUC BRING             
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS NE INTO MI LATER THIS AM. RADAR HOWEVER CONT TO            
SHOW SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS. THINK THAT MOST OF THIS              
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AM. WITH THAT IN MIND LEFT                  
REMAINDER OF SITES DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLDS              
BUILDING EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXPECTED            
THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING IN TOL-FDY AROUND 00-02Z            
AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK            
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OH VLY ERY THIS MORNING PROVIDING                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF            
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS MRNG WILL                 
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.             
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD              
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA TUE MRNG. WILL KEEP THE CHC TSTMS GOING FOR WESTERN               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO SLGT CHC OR LOWER CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY. BLV TSTMS SHUD BE IN FAIRLY NARROW BAND BUT            
THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL THEY SPREAD             
WITH THE FAIRLY STG MID LEVEL WINDS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO                
TNGT WITH GOOD SUPT FROM LOW LVL JET...MSTR AND INSTAB AXIS THOUGH              
MAY SEE DCRSS WITH LOSS HEATING. CONT WITH A CHC LINGERING                      
SHOWERS/TSTMS CLOSE TO FNT TUE MRNG FAR E...THEN SLGT CHC AFTN SHWRS            
WITH COOL FLOW AND WARM LAKE WATERS. DIDI NOT CHNG CURRENT FCST                 
TEMPS TOO MUCH...THIS EVENING MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM FOR TUE              
AND WED.                                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES FOR NOW. PREV DISC...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO                
TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WILL SET UP A COLD AIR ADVECTION             
PATTERN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED                 
TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT SHEAR DOES DEVELOP IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS BASED ON GFS 06Z MODEL RUN.                                        
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LIMITED SYNOPTICALLY BUT I THINK WITH                 
WARM WATERS ON THE LAKES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SUPPLIED               
LOCALLY TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
MODELS ALWAYS TRY TO END THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION                
WELL BEFORE IT ACTUALLY ENDS SO WILL PUT IN A THREAT OF 30 PERCENT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                
WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY              
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE               
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                          
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BY SATURDAY ACROSS OHIO AND               
PENNSYLVANIA. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER               
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
I WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND I              
DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER AS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE STABLE AIR MASS.                      
MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE CONSIDERING             
COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ALSO THREAT OF EXPECTED              
PRECIPITATION.  SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WCR/BM                                                             
LONG TERM...WCR/LOMBARDY                                                        
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1041 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
CLOUD COVER INCREASED QUICKLY ACROSS FCST AREA THIS MORN BUT STILL              
APPEARS THIN IN SOME SPOTS. SHWRS AND TSTMS NOT MAKING MUCH EASTWARD            
PROGRESS. JUST A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO ZFP SINCE FOG HAS DISSIPATED.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CONDITIONS MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING. IN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS                   
WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLDS MOVING IN FROM                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER IL AND IN. BROUGHT IN                     
POSSIBLITY OF -SHRA LATER THIS AM IN TOL AND FDY. ETA AND RUC BRING             
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS NE INTO MI LATER THIS AM. RADAR HOWEVER CONT TO            
SHOW SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS. THINK THAT MOST OF THIS              
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AM. WITH THAT IN MIND LEFT                  
REMAINDER OF SITES DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLDS              
BUILDING EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXPECTED            
THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING IN TOL-FDY AROUND 00-02Z            
AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK            
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OH VLY ERY THIS MORNING PROVIDING                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF            
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS MRNG WILL                 
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.             
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD              
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA TUE MRNG. WILL KEEP THE CHC TSTMS GOING FOR WESTERN               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO SLGT CHC OR LOWER CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY. BLV TSTMS SHUD BE IN FAIRLY NARROW BAND BUT            
THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL THEY SPREAD             
WITH THE FAIRLY STG MID LEVEL WINDS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO                
TNGT WITH GOOD SUPT FROM LOW LVL JET...MSTR AND INSTAB AXIS THOUGH              
MAY SEE DCRSS WITH LOSS HEATING. CONT WITH A CHC LINGERING                      
SHOWERS/TSTMS CLOSE TO FNT TUE MRNG FAR E...THEN SLGT CHC AFTN SHWRS            
WITH COOL FLOW AND WARM LAKE WATERS. DIDI NOT CHNG CURRENT FCST                 
TEMPS TOO MUCH...THIS EVENING MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM FOR TUE              
AND WED.                                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES FOR NOW. PREV DISC...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO                
TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WILL SET UP A COLD AIR ADVECTION             
PATTERN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED                 
TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT SHEAR DOES DEVELOP IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS BASED ON GFS 06Z MODEL RUN.                                        
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LIMITED SYNOPTICALLY BUT I THINK WITH                 
WARM WATERS ON THE LAKES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SUPPLIED               
LOCALLY TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
MODELS ALWAYS TRY TO END THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION                
WELL BEFORE IT ACTUALLY ENDS SO WILL PUT IN A THREAT OF 30 PERCENT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                
WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY              
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE               
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                          
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BY SATURDAY ACROSS OHIO AND               
PENNSYLVANIA. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER               
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
I WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND I              
DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER AS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE STABLE AIR MASS.                      
MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE CONSIDERING             
COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ALSO THREAT OF EXPECTED              
PRECIPITATION.  SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WCR/BM                                                             
LONG TERM...WCR/LOMBARDY                                                        
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
749 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CONDITIONS MVFR TO VFR THIS MORNING. IN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS                   
WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING WITH HIGH CLDS MOVING IN FROM                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER IL AND IN. BROUGHT IN                     
POSSIBLITY OF -SHRA LATER THIS AM IN TOL AND FDY. ETA AND RUC BRING             
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS NE INTO MI LATER THIS AM. RADAR HOWEVER CONT TO            
SHOW SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS. THINK THAT MOST OF THIS              
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AM. WITH THAT IN MIND LEFT                  
REMAINDER OF SITES DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY HIGH CLDS              
BUILDING EAST INTO NORTHERN OHIO. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXPECTED            
THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS BEGINNING IN TOL-FDY AROUND 00-02Z            
AND CONTINUING EAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK            
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD                
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...                                                
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OH VLY ERY THIS MORNING PROVIDING                  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF            
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS MRNG WILL                 
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.             
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD              
MOVE INTO WESTERN OHIO EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVE JUST EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA TUE MRNG. WILL KEEP THE CHC TSTMS GOING FOR WESTERN               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT DROP BACK TO SLGT CHC OR LOWER CENTRAL AND              
EASTERN AREAS FOR TODAY. BLV TSTMS SHUD BE IN FAIRLY NARROW BAND BUT            
THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL THEY SPREAD             
WITH THE FAIRLY STG MID LEVEL WINDS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO                
TNGT WITH GOOD SUPT FROM LOW LVL JET...MSTR AND INSTAB AXIS THOUGH              
MAY SEE DCRSS WITH LOSS HEATING. CONT WITH A CHC LINGERING                      
SHOWERS/TSTMS CLOSE TO FNT TUE MRNG FAR E...THEN SLGT CHC AFTN SHWRS            
WITH COOL FLOW AND WARM LAKE WATERS. DIDI NOT CHNG CURRENT FCST                 
TEMPS TOO MUCH...THIS EVENING MAV GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM FOR TUE              
AND WED.                                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES FOR NOW. PREV DISC...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED TO                
TAKE PLACE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY WILL SET UP A COLD AIR ADVECTION             
PATTERN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED                 
TUESDAY EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT SHEAR DOES DEVELOP IN THE                
LOWER LEVELS BASED ON GFS 06Z MODEL RUN.                                        
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE LIMITED SYNOPTICALLY BUT I THINK WITH                 
WARM WATERS ON THE LAKES THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE SUPPLIED               
LOCALLY TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                 
MODELS ALWAYS TRY TO END THE THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION                
WELL BEFORE IT ACTUALLY ENDS SO WILL PUT IN A THREAT OF 30 PERCENT              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                
WEATHER SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY              
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATE THE               
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                          
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA BY THURSDAY                
AFTERNOON AND BECOME QUASI STATIONARY BY SATURDAY ACROSS OHIO AND               
PENNSYLVANIA. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK UPPER               
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH               
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER WET WEEKEND ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
I WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND I              
DONT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDER AS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING OUR AREA IN THE STABLE AIR MASS.                      
MEX GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE CONSIDERING             
COLD AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ALSO THREAT OF EXPECTED              
PRECIPITATION.  SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WCR                                                                
LONG TERM...WCR/LOMBARDY                                                        
AVIATION...ABE                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
850 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
WEAK CDFNT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWD THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN OK.  WITH             
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND ONLY WEAK                   
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BNDRY...WILL DROP POPS FOR TONIGHT.  WILL                 
TWEAK THE MIN TEMPS A BIT BASED ON THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE                 
FRONT...OTRW NOT MUCH ELSE TO CHANGE.                                           
II                                                                              
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
213 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST                
KANSAS IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FIELD OF ASCENT            
RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ALONG              
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MOISTENING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL COLUMN               
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. POPS THEREFORE APPEAR MORE JUSTIFIED ACROSS            
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN EVEN A FEW HOURS AGO              
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE CAPPING INVERSION. THIS SCENARIO ALSO HAS                 
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE FRONTAL POSITION WITH ALL                
MODELS EXCEPT THE RUC POORLY INITIALIZING ITS DEPTH AND STRUCTURE.              
GIVEN THIS EARLY ASSESSMENT...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ASSOCIATED              
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST RESULTING IN A MORE              
SOUTHWARD FRONTAL POSITION BY EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY               
TOWARD THIS SCENARIO IN THE GRIDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...AND TO BE            
CONSISTENT HAVE ALSO INCORPORATED MORE STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT/                
EARLY TUESDAY BASED ON THIS MORNING OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL BIAS.                
MEANWHILE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE MID/UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILDING STEADILY NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO               
BUILD EVEN FURTHER ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PASSES. THE FRONT            
SHOULD WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH                  
UNUSUALLY WARM/NEAR HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO ENTER NORTHWEST               
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER                 
RIDGE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AM NOT CONFIDENT             
THE FRONT WILL EVEN MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES MOVE             
INTO THE AREA THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING               
THE FRONT AND RETREATING IT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT JUST AS                   
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE RITA MAKES LANDFALL.                                   
HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER ON THE                 
FUTURE PATH OF RITA WHICH TAKES IT TO NEAR GALVESTON BY 12Z SAT THEN            
CURVES IT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT             
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS           
COMPARED TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND THAT RITA IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS               
AWAY...HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE IN INTERPRETING MODEL OUTPUT WITH             
ONLY CHANCE POPS (20-30) AND NO MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AT THIS TIME            
AS RITA POSSIBLY NEARS THE AREA.                                                
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  94  71  97 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         70  95  69  98 /  20   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           66  91  65  99 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     68  92  69  95 /  20   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         74  98  73  97 /  10   0   0   0                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
213 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
INITIAL IMPRESSIONS ARE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST                
KANSAS IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FIELD OF ASCENT            
RESULTING IN CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ALONG              
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND MOISTENING OF MID/UPPER LEVEL COLUMN               
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. POPS THEREFORE APPEAR MORE JUSTIFIED ACROSS            
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN EVEN A FEW HOURS AGO              
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE CAPPING INVERSION. THIS SCENARIO ALSO HAS                 
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE FRONTAL POSITION WITH ALL                
MODELS EXCEPT THE RUC POORLY INITIALIZING ITS DEPTH AND STRUCTURE.              
GIVEN THIS EARLY ASSESSMENT...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ASSOCIATED              
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST RESULTING IN A MORE              
SOUTHWARD FRONTAL POSITION BY EARLY TUESDAY. HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY               
TOWARD THIS SCENARIO IN THE GRIDS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...AND TO BE            
CONSISTENT HAVE ALSO INCORPORATED MORE STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT/                
EARLY TUESDAY BASED ON THIS MORNING OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL BIAS.                
MEANWHILE...MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE MID/UPPER RIDGE                 
BUILDING STEADILY NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO               
BUILD EVEN FURTHER ONCE THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH PASSES. THE FRONT            
SHOULD WEAKEN AND RETREAT NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH                  
UNUSUALLY WARM/NEAR HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF              
THE WEEK.                                                                       
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO ENTER NORTHWEST               
OKLAHOMA FRIDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MID/UPPER                 
RIDGE AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AM NOT CONFIDENT             
THE FRONT WILL EVEN MOVE INTO THE AREA. EVEN IF THE FRONT DOES MOVE             
INTO THE AREA THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING               
THE FRONT AND RETREATING IT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT JUST AS                   
TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE RITA MAKES LANDFALL.                                   
HAVE CLOSELY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER ON THE                 
FUTURE PATH OF RITA WHICH TAKES IT TO NEAR GALVESTON BY 12Z SAT THEN            
CURVES IT NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT             
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE SMALL SPATIAL NATURE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS           
COMPARED TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AND THAT RITA IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS               
AWAY...HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE IN INTERPRETING MODEL OUTPUT WITH             
ONLY CHANCE POPS (20-30) AND NO MENTION OF STRONG WINDS AT THIS TIME            
AS RITA POSSIBLY NEARS THE AREA.                                                
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  94  71  97 /  20   0   0   0                              
HOBART OK         70  95  69  98 /  20   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  98  72  98 /  10   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           66  91  65  99 /  10   0   0   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     68  92  69  95 /  20   0   0   0                              
DURANT OK         74  98  73  97 /  10   0   0   0                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
952 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING TO ADJUST SKY COVER                
ONLY. IMPRESSIVE FOG COVERAGE THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE                     
NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN...CONNECTICUT...AND MOHAWK RIVER              
VALLEYS WHICH IS JUST BEGINNING TO BURN OFF. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED             
OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL HOLD OFF MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY             
NORTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA...SO FEEL AN UPDATE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY            
SKIES IS JUSTIFIED. GFS AND NAM12 850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN               
THE MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND GOING FORECAST HAS THIS                 
COVERED WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST PLANNED.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY. WK CF TO STAY TO             
THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY. STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS                 
REGION TODAY...THEN ACRS SRN CANADA TONITE. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED            
CF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON TUE. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA ON                  
TUE NITE AND WED.                                                               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
00-01Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U60S TO NEAR 80F TODAY              
WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE U70S-L80S           
TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND            
MESONET OBS. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS A              
FEW CLDS ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE ACRS THE NRN TIER           
ZONES.                                                                          
H85 WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA FOR TODAY AND TONITE AND AGAIN ON                
WED...WITH CAA ON TUE/TUE NITE. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE            
ACRS THE FA TONITE...EARLY ON TUE...LATE ON TUE NITE...AND FOR MUCH             
OF WED. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATER TONITE THRU EARLY ON           
TUE NITE...AND AGAIN ON WED. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA           
THIS AFTERNOON AND ON WED AFTERNOON. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI               
ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONITE AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON.               
SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TONITE AND EARLY ON TUE. PW             
VALUES ACRS THE FA TO BE 0.5-1.1" TODAY AND ON TUE...1-1.5" TONITE...           
AND AROUND 0.75" TUE NITE/WED. NAM CAPES ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE BLW           
400 J/KG TONITE...BLW 1000 J/KG ON TUE...AND BLW 800 J/KG ON WED.               
IR SAT PIX SHOWS A FEW CLDS MOVING ACRS MUCH OF THE FA ATTM. WILL OPT           
TO HANDLE ANY LINGERING FG ACRS THE FA THIS MORNING WITH THE STF.               
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE -SHRA                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CF THAT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY.           
GOING FCST ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD STILL LOOKS           
GOOD ATTM. WILL CONT TO GO WITH CHC POPS (HIGHEST ACRS THE WRN ZONES)           
BY LATER TONITE AND LIKELY POPS ON TUE FOR SHRA/TSRA. SOME PCPN STILL           
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACRS THE FA EARLY ON TUE NITE AS WELL. T1MAX TEMPS           
ARE IN THE L-M70S ON TUE.                                                       
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.                                           
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY                 
4 AM.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
WK SFC HI PRES ERLY THIS MRNG FM WRN PA WITH A RDG ACRS NRN NEW ENG.            
THIS HI MOVS OFSHR TNGT WITH S OR SW SFC FLO RETURNING. AN AREA OF              
LOW PRES WL MOV ACRS THE NRN GRTLKS LATER TDY AND INTO SRN ONT TNGT.            
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ASOCD WITH ABV MENTIONED SFC HI ERLY THIS             
MRNG HAS RESULTED IN VLY FG AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS...ESPCLY THE KSLK            
AND KMPV TAF SITES. THIS FG WL RESULT IN LCL IFR CONDS THRU ABT                 
13Z...AND THEREAFTER MIX OUT UPON HEATING OF THE SUN WITH VFR CONDS             
THRU 06Z/20TH. BTWN 00Z/20TH AND 06Z/20TH EXPECT SCT-BKN CLDS 6-8K FT           
DVLPG WITH BKN CI ABV AS MOISTURE FM GRTLKS MOVS E.                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
230 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON QUIETER PERIOD COMING UP...                  
THEN ON RETURN OF PCPN THREAT ARND MIDWEEK.                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...SFC LOW NOW INTO UPR MI WITH TRAILING CDFNT                 
TO NW IL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PSBLTY OF NEW CNVTV DVLPT UNTIL            
FNT LEAVES THE STATE THIS EVE. BUT RUC BUFKIT SOUNDING IS STILL SHWG            
A RATHER STG LOOKING CAP...AND WINDS EVEN AHD OF FNT ARE TURNING MORE           
WLY. MAY HANG ON TO SLGT CHC ERLY THIS EVE BEFORE FNT LEAVES. NW                
WINDS BHND IT WL STAY UP FOR AWHILE BEFORE DMSHG LATER TNGT.                    
TMRW AND WED STILL LOOK GOOD AS A RDG OF HI PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE              
RGN. TMPS SHUD BE ABV SEAS NORMALS FOR THE MOST PART.                           
NAM AND GFS STILL BRING NEXT RN CHC IN WED NGT AND THU AS ANTHR CDFNT           
SAGS SWD THRU CWA.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
343 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MTS.                                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE DESERT SW AND                 
INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION ATTM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING           
INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH                  
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT. AT THE                
SFC...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO               
WITH SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS            
MOVING ACROSS STATE...WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES ON THE MILD SIDE              
ACROSS THE REGION AND HAS HAMPERED ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.                                                        
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE SW AS                
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIF COAST SLOWLY                
MOVES ONSHORE. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE              
ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAINLY UPPER LEVEL              
MOISTURE (AOB H3)...WITH BEST MID LEVEL PLUME MOVING ACROSS UTAH.               
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE STATE UNDER BUILDING             
RIDGE WITH H7 TEMPS INCREASING TO BETWEEN +13C AND +16C...AND WITH              
WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SOME 8-15F ABOVE SEASONAL                
AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH SOME LOSS OF DIRECT INSOLATION              
WITH BOUTS OF CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT                 
POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THIS                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GRADUAL                    
MOISTENING OF LOWER LEVELS WITH MODELS INDICATING H7-5 SPECIFIC                 
HUMIDITIES INCREASING TO NEAR 4G/KG ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT.            
H7 THERMAL TROUGH ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS                
TONIGHT...KEEPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES UP WITH MILD              
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION.  -MW                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
STILL APPEARS WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING                 
WEEK...WITH LARGE AREA OF 14C TO 16C 700MB TEMPS PROGGED OVER ALL OF            
SOUTHERN COLORADO. WED MAX TEMPS IN CURRENT SET OF GRIDS WOULD TIE              
THE RECORD HIGH AT KALS...AND BREAK RECORDS AT BOTH KPUB AND KCOS.              
TRIED TO KEEP ANY POPS LIMITED TO THE MTS AND WRN VALLEYS...WHERE               
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE              
CONT DVD AND WWD. FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY                  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH UPSLOPE WINDS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE WESTWARD BY THU AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT AN UPTURN IN -TSRA             
CHANCES OVER THE EAST BY THU EVENING...THOUGH WITH ONLY WEAK                    
DYNAMICS...ISOLATED POPS ARE SUFFICIENT. SHOULD SEE THU MAXES COOL              
ABOUT 10F MOST OF THE EAST...LESS COOLING OVER THE MTS AND WEST AS              
700 MB TEMPS DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY.                                            
GENERALLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI AHEAD OF               
DIGGING WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH...WITH POPS LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG THE            
CONT DVD. SAT THROUGH MON TIME FRAME STILL LOOKING UNSETTLED...AS               
WRN TROUGH EDGES EASTWARD AND FRONT SAGS INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.             
CURRENT GRIDS FIT LATEST MODEL RUNS FAIRLY WELL...ONLY MADE SOME                
VERY SMALL CHANGES TO POPS AND TEMPS.  --ETP                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WED AND PRECIPITATION            
CHANCES WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.                                              
CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED ZONAL FLOW FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTH DAKOTA...THEN NW               
FLOW INTO A SHRTWV TROUGH OVER GEORGIAN BAY. THIS SHRTWV WAS                    
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE                 
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN YESTERDAY. DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW...THIS                  
SHRTWV CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AND AS A                
RESULT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN AT THE                   
SURFACE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL EXIST               
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR CLOSER TO A 1002 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH              
THE SHRTWV. DESPITE THE HIGH BUILDING IN...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
REMAINS TOUGH TO GET RID OF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW. CLEARING              
LINE RIGHT NOW REMAINS FROM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO TO IRONWOOD...THEN              
EASTWARD ALONG US-2. MUCH OF CLOUD COVER OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER                 
MICHIGAN IS IN THE FORM OF FOG. WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLEAR OUT IN NE               
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED THROUGH THE              
40S. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL                     
SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG                     
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FARGO. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXIST WITH THE             
FRONT DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. 00Z BIS SOUNDING HAD A                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.46 INCHES AND A K-INDEX OF -7. 00Z INL                  
SOUNDING WAS A BIT MORE MOIST BEING CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...BUT             
EVEN THERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED TO 0.72 INCHES (A                 
CHANGE OF ALMOST 0.4 SINCE 12Z).                                                
TODAY...AFTER A BUSY DAY YESTERDAY...THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE IS                   
EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH WINDS AND TEMPS THE ONLY CONCERNS. THIS IS              
DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS LOCATED OVER BIS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD               
OVER THE U.P.. ANY FOG/STRATUS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE              
AS SUNSHINE HELPS MIX OUT THE LOW LEVELS. OTHER THAN THAT...MUCH OF             
THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN            
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WARM FRONT OFF TO THE WEST              
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME               
BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND IT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART             
OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SHRTWV TRACK. WITH THE SW TO W WINDS ALONG             
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES PROGGED FROM 10C EAST TO 14C WEST AT                    
18Z...READINGS WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S.                   
LOCATIONS IN THE FAR WEST AND THOSE THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH THE WINDS               
DESCRIBED ABOVE MAY TOP OUT AROUND 80.                                          
TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER              
FRONT TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WHICH IS PROGGED TO REACH THE                  
FARGO AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. CLOSER TO HOME...ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH             
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT                          
TODAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DROP OFF. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER            
ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES WOULD SIGNAL A COOL NIGHT...BUT THE                  
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES...SO AM                   
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO COOL ON LOWS. MID 40S DO SEEM POSSIBLE THOUGH IN            
THE INTERIOR WEST HALF. ALSO THOUGHT ABOUT PATCHY FOG SINCE THE                 
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO DRY. GROUND SHOULD ALSO            
DRY OUT QUITE A BIT TODAY FROM THE BREEZY WINDS AND WARM                        
TEMPERATURES. THEREFORE NO PATCHY FOG MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.                
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE ON HOW FAST            
THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD.  THIS DEPENDS ON A SHRTWV RIGHT NOW JUST             
OFF THE COAST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AND HOW FAST IT MOVES THROUGH THE             
FLOW. GIVEN THE ZONAL NATURE...A FASTER SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGH MAY            
SEEM IN ORDER. THE NAM IS THE FASTEST PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO THE               
CENTRAL U.P. BY 21Z WED. UKMET/GFS ARE SLOWER...DELAYING THE FRONT              
ABOUT 6 HOURS...BUT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED            
THE UKMET/GFS BUT COULD SEE THE NEED TO GO WITH THE FASTER NAM. WARM            
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPERATURES TO               
CLIMB UP TO 16C BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...SO WEDNESDAY MAY END UP BEING THE            
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE PLENTY OF HIGH                 
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY            
RESTRICT SURFACE HEATING SLIGHTLY. UKMET CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP IN            
THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A 140 KT JET                 
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE.               
BOTH UKMET AND THE GFS SHOW SOME QPF MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AGAIN AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE FACTORS AND                 
THEREFORE CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.                                         
THURSDAY...WITH THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST            
PER THE UKMET/GFS...HAVE ENDED PRECIPITATION A LITTLE QUICKER THAN              
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE NOT WENT FULL FLEDGED ON THE ENDING              
TIME OF THE GFS (NO RAIN FOR THURSDAY) TO TRY TO BLEND WITH                     
CONTINUITY AND THE PAST FLIP-FLOPPING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING                
THROUGH WITH THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DICTATED ON THE             
SPEED OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND                             
IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 60S. THE WARMEST SPOT WOULD BE             
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT                 
DOWNSLOPE.                                                                      
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY ALL            
MODELS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SPEED IT DROPS SOUTH              
IS CRITICAL TO LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE AIRMASS LOOKS             
BOTH DRY AND CHILLY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE 975-950MB WINDS              
WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES UP. HOWEVER...MAV COOP                 
GUIDANCE IS IN THE LOW 30S FOR SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN THE            
INTERIOR WEST HALF. HAVE DROPPED LOWS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE                  
POTENTIAL OF A COLD NIGHT...BUT WILL LET FURTHER FORECASTS IRON THIS            
OUT. FRIDAY SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A COOL DAY AS 850MB TEMPS ARE                 
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 4C. NE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN                     
SLIGHTLY...BUT WITH LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE LOW 60S...LITTLE EFFECT                
SHOULD BE SEEN. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH                
NEARBY.                                                                         
ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO DROP TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR             
EAST HALF FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH PRESSURE                
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
414 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HEAT                    
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES            
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RECORD HIGHS THAT             
ARE IN DANGER OF BEING EQUALED OR EXCEEDED INCLUDE: GREENVILLE 98               
...GREENWOOD 98...VICKSBURG 96...MERIDIAN 96 AND HATTIESBURG 98.                
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE HOT...THE RECORD HIGH OF 104 AT JACKSON               
LOOKS SAFE TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...DEW POINTS WILL BE IN               
THE LOWER 70S IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND PARISHES LEADING TO HIGH                 
INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.               
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL              
SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY LEAVING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT                  
SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI                
TONIGHT. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN OUR NORTHERN                    
COUNTIES TONIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE BUT NO PCPN. /22/                            
QUIET BUT WARM AND VERY DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA LOOKS TO               
CONTINUE INTO FRI. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES PROBLEMATIC               
AS THE TRACK OF RITA WILL GREATLY WEIGH ON THE FORECAST. BEFORE THAT            
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.                             
WED AND THU H5 HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND H85 TEMPS WILL SLIGHTLY COOL               
DOWN AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT               
TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID               
90S. THE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA AND WITH THE WARM               
MID LEVELS CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WED            
AND OVER MOST OF THE AREA THUR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME                
STHRN COUNTIES. THESE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO SEE AND OUTER BAND OR               
TWO FROM RITA.                                                                  
TS RITA STILL A BIG CONCERN WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES. AS OF 04Z THE              
PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 988MB ABOUT A 14MB DROP IN THE PAST 27 HRS. BUT            
THE GOOD NEWS IS THE WINDS REALLY HAVEN'T RESPONDED AND RITA REMAIN             
A TS. THERE IS A GROWING SHIFT IN THE MDLS BACK TO THE LEFT AS RITA             
HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER THAN EXPECTED. KEY FEATURES ARE GOING TO BE              
THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE...FWRD SPEED OF             
RITA...AND THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RITA               
LATER IN THE FORECAST. WITH A FASTER FWRD MOTION RITA WILL GET                  
FURTHER WEST AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH MAKING THE TURN TO THE            
NORTH FURTHER WEST...PROBABLY ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COAST. A             
SLOWER FRWD MOTION WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST AND            
LEAD TO A POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE NRTHN TX OR EVEN SW LA COAST.             
CURRENTLY NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF RITA INTO THE MIDDLE TO             
UPPER TX COAST JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON. THAT SAID THE OVERALL ERROR             
STILL STRETCHES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TX TO MORGAN CITY LA.            
ONCE AGAIN LANDFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE DREADED TURN TO THE NORTH AS             
HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS YEAR WITH DENNIS AND KATRINA...KATRINA MORE              
SO THAN DENNIS AS WE WAITED FOR DENNIS TO TURN MORE TWRDS THE N FROM            
ITS WNW MOTION.                                                                 
WITH LANDFALL BEING WEST OF THE CWA HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY AND                 
INCREASE POPS FOR LATE SATURDAY BUT ESPECIALLY INTO SUN AND MON AS              
RITA MOVES N THROUGH EAST TX AND THEN NE INTO AR. WITH THIS TRACK               
AMPLE GULF MOISTURE WILL PUMP INTO THE REGION AND SHRA AND TSRA WILL            
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LA AND            
AR COUNTIES AND FIRST TIER OF MS COUNTIES IN THE CWA. ALSO WITH THIS            
TRACK WE ARE STILL IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS                  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.                                                 
AFTER THE REMNANTS OF RITA MOVE THROUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SFC            
BNDRY DRAPED ACROSS STHRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A              
SFC FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT              
WEEK. THE ONE GOOD THING WITH ALL THIS IS THE RAIN IS VERY MUCH                 
NEEDED ACROSS NE TX...AR...NRTHN LA...AND MUCH OF MS AND THIS COULD             
SERIOUSLY ALLEVIATE THE DEVELOPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. /CAB/                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED AT               
GTR. OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS            
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. VFR                      
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER 14Z AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE             
DAY. /22/                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       97  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      97  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/CAB/22                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT ON SGF 00Z SOUNDING STILL APPEARS              
TO BE HOLDING STRONG. 04Z ACARS FLIGHT OUT OF TUL SHOWS NO EVIDENCE             
OF ANY COOLING BETWEEN 800-700MB AND THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE IS               
CURRENT OVER TUL...SO ANY HOPE OF WEAKENING CAP FROM TROUGH PASSAGE             
IS FADING FAST. MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO CUT BACK             
ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF POP/WX IN THE GRIDS FOR OVERNIGHT. ALSO                
BUMPED LOW TEMPS UP A BIT OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA...LITTLE CHANGE IN              
THE AIRMASS PRESENT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE             
70S TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. FINALLY...ONCE PRECIP ENDS COULD SEE               
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER MID MISSOURI WHERE RAIN FELL THIS            
EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY HIGH THOUGH SEEING AS THOUGH                 
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                     
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE               
NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH JLN/SGF                
TERMINALS SHOULD CAUSE A BRIEF GASP OF WIND FROM THE NORTH BEFORE               
GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN DECK AT FL040-060 CURRENTLY             
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE HOWEVER FEW-SCT             
CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND FL040-050.                        
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE TWO PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE ARE THE AREAL            
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AND THE                     
POTENTIAL INFLUENCES OF SOON TO BE HURRICANE RITA LATE THIS WEEKEND             
INTO MONDAY.                                                                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SGF SOUNDING SHOWED A 2C CAP IN PLACE                   
BETWEEN 700 AND 750 MB.  THIS LAYER WAS ALSO VERY DRY (-17C                     
DP)...BUT LOOKING AT THE 12Z RAOBS...IT APPEARS TO BE VERY                      
LOCALIZED. RUC PROGS WOULD SUPPORT THIS...WITH A NARROW TONGUE OF               
DRY AIR IN THE 700 TO 750 MB LAYER ADVECTING NEWD INTO SW MO AROUND             
MIDDAY TODAY. RUC THEN TAKES THE DRY LAYER AND SWEEPS IT EASTWARD               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND TEMPS COOL BY ABOUT 2C. THIS SHOULD BE                 
ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW UPDRAFTS TO PUNCH THROUGH                    
WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG                   
REMAINS INTO THE EVENING...SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CONVECTION TO            
LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAPE DOES              
EXTEND ABOVE THE -20C LEVEL...SO LARGE HAIL IS A THREAT. MAY GET                
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS BEFORE THE SURFACE COOLS THIS                      
EVENING...AS WINDEX SHOWS GUSTS TO 59 KNOTS POSSIBLE.                           
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE ARKANSAS LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS                
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD. TUESDAY MAY SEE THE                 
REMAINS OF THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER WITH               
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LACKING...DO NOT THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL BE              
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION. FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE NEXT 24                 
HOURS...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE             
FORMATION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WEST                    
COAST...THE VERY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE             
EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE               
RIDGE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE MUCH OF A DENT             
IN THE RIDGE AT OUR LATITUDE...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD             
STALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND             
DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.                      
THE NEXT BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH                
RITA. LATEST TPC LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON WOULD STILL GIVE SW AND                
ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL MO A SHOT AT HEAVY RAIN AS THE REMAINS OF              
THE SYSTEM PASS BY. ANY FURTHER SHIFTS EASTWARD...LETS NOT EVEN                 
THINK ABOUT THAT!...WOULD LIKELY LEAVE SW MO ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE             
STORM. WILL EASE INTO THIS...AND JUST GO LOW CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE               
FOR NOW.                                                                        
BROWNING                                                                        
&&                                                                              
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
220 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
THROUGH DAYBREAK: SO FAR THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAVE                    
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS IS                   
QUICKLY CHARGING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH VERY LIGHT SE WINDS &             
HIGH DEWPOINTS... FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD                      
EVERYWHERE. WILL CONSIDER AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO             
THE NW CWA IF PRESENT TRENDS PERSIST.                                           
MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD BACKBUILDING CONVECTION                 
CONTINUES PUSHING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND KY... OUTPACING GFS/NAM             
PROJECTIONS & EXCEEDING BOTH MODELS' QPFS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF               
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PETER OUT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE            
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIME INSTABILITY. THE ATTENDANT                    
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO NC LATE TODAY BRINGING            
INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... DESTABILIZING LI VALUES TO -2 TO            
-4... AND CAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR IN             
PLACE... EXPECT CONVECTION BE MULTICELLULAR... MOVING INTO THE NW               
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER                 
TERRAIN RATHER THAN AS A PURE TRANSLATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION...             
THEN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING & OVERNIGHT. THE GFS             
REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM WITH BOTH RAIN ONSET AND WITH              
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH... AND BASED ON THE RUC AND PRE-ECLIPSE WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY THE NAM SPEED MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY... ALTHOUGH NAM            
PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR UNDERDONE CONSIDERING THAT THE PW IS EXPECTED             
TO RISE TO 150% OF NORMAL. MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF                
CHANCE POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND A            
GREAT DEAL ON THE DEPTH & EXTENT OF STRATUS THIS MORNING AND WILL               
STICK WITH 88-92 FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING            
HIGH... FAVOR THE WARM END OF MOS GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...                 
65-72.                                                                          
WED THROUGH THU: THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THU AS WEAK               
HIGH PRESSURE ZIPS BY TO THE NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO RAIN CHANCES                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ACTING             
ON A GOOD AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE                 
COLUMN. WILL RAISE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WED               
AND EVERYWHERE THU WITH A NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING               
UPPER RIDGING DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS...             
LIKELY TO YIELD TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE... AT THIS TIME DO NOT FAVOR THE BACKDOOR            
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z/20               
GFS. IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHERE RITA'S REMNANTS WILL GO              
DAYS 6/7 AND WILL RETAIN DRY WEATHER.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS               
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS                
EXCEPT PATCHY CIGS NEAR 1KFT AND MVFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME             
IFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. AFTER 09Z                  
THROUGH 14Z WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG WILL                
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER 14Z BCMG SCT-BKN LAYER 3-5KFT. 21Z-03Z...SCT               
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH CIGS 2-3KFT VSBYS 3-5 MILES.                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-074>078-                      
083>086-088-089 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RA                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
300 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
BASED ON RECENT NAM GFS AND RUC MODEL RUNS...EXPECT SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY                
AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH                       
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND                              
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.                                            
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS                     
VALUES.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                  
GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE                     
NORTHERN U.S. OCCASIONAL INFLUX OF ENERGY FROM CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE              
TROUGHS PHASING INTO THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN FRONTAL PASSAGES                  
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.                              
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TSTMS DEVELOPED NR ERI, MUCH AS MOIST FLUX INDICATED. BASED ON THAT,            
SRN HALF OF CWA IS IN JEOPARDY OF THUNDER AND RAIN. IT IS EXPECTED              
TO END IN PIT AT 13Z, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF BKN035, THEN SCT050,              
AND CLR BY 23Z, AS VIGOROUS H5 TROF PUSHES E. FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT            
(6-12Z WED). FOR MGW, I PUT RAIN, NOT THUNDER, TIL 17Z, CLR BY 00Z.             
DUJ HAS THUNDER TIL 08Z, THEN A PD OF RAIN, BKN015 AT 15Z, SCT035 AT            
17Z, CLR BY 23Z. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-23KT IN MID AFTN, ACCORDING               
TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM.                               
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
332 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
STORM SYS TO MOVE ACRS SRN CANADA TODAY...AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CF MOVES           
ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST. WK HI PRESS TO AFFECT THE FA TONITE THRU             
WED NITE. ANOTHER CF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN             
CANADA ON THU.                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
00-02Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M60S-M70S TODAY WITH S-SW           
SFC WINDS AT 5-15G30 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L70S-L80S TODAY. FEW           
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET               
OBS. LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY              
SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY.                                                        
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU EARLY ON WED...THEN WAA            
FOR LATER ON WED THRU THU. LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS            
THE FA EARLY TODAY AND AGAIN ON THU. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE            
FA TONITE AND EARLY ON WED...AND AGAIN ON THU. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO           
BE HI ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 3 AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO              
AFFECT THE FA EARLY TODAY AND THE NRN FA ON THU. PW VALUES ACRS THE             
FA LOOK TO BE 0.5-1.4" TODAY...0.5-0.75" TONITE THRU WED NITE...THEN            
AROUND AN INCH ON THU. CAPES ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE AOB 1100 J/KG             
TODAY AND BLW 1000 J/KG ON THU.                                                 
ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA APPEARS TO BE MODERATE TO HIGHLY SHEARED WITH           
WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 7-10 KFT TODAY. SHEAR APPEARS TO GET WEAKER WITH           
TIME ACRS THE FA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY THOUGH. LACK OF STRONG             
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE LIMITING                
FACTORS FOR ANY SVR WX TODAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY +TSRA           
THAT DO HAPPEN TO FORM ACRS THE FA CAUSING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS               
THOUGH. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. FOR NOW...WILL           
CONT TO MENTION TS POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH NO ENHANCED                  
WORDING.                                                                        
IR SAT PIX SHOW PLENTY OF CLDS ACRS THE FA ATTM. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC              
SHOWS A FEW LT RETURNS MOVING ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ATTM. WILL              
CONT TO HANG ONTO LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY.             
THE REST OF THE GOING FCST FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY               
GOOD...WITH THE NEXT SMALL CHC FOR ANY PCPN ACRS THE FA ON                      
THU AFTERNOON. T1MIN TEMPS TONITE AND ON WED NITE APPEAR TO BASICALLY           
BE 45-55F. T1MAX TEMPS ARE 75-80 ON WED.                                        
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW...EXCEPT TO TRY AND MESH A LIL             
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.                                                   
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY                 
4 AM.                                                                           
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HV INDCD PTCHY IFR IN ERLY MRMG FG THRU ABT 10Z ACRS CNTRL/ERN VT DUE           
TO WK WNDS AND SLOWNESS OF MOISTURE TO ADVECT E. OTRW PTCHY FG AT               
KSLK THRU 08Z WITH UNRESTD VSBY ELSW BEFORE NXT WX SYS IMPACTS AREA.            
SFC LO OVR SRN ONT ERLY THIS MRNG FCST TO MOV ACRS SRN QUE TDY AND              
INTO THE GULF OF ST LAW TNGT. ONE WK FNTL BNDRY JUST N OF VT/CANADIAN           
BORDER WL NOT IMPACT OUR AREA. HOWEVER MAIN CDFNT ASOCD WITH SFC LO             
WL MOV W TO E ACRS OUR AREA DURG THE LATE MRNG AND ERLY AFTN. NOTED             
H/3 WND MAX ACRS NRN OH VLY BUT EXPECT FAVORED TSTM AREAS TO BE IN              
SRN CANADA AND FROM SRN NEW ENG SOUTHWARD. THUS HV JUST INDCD SHWRS             
AT TAF SITES.                                                                   
FOR TDY SCT-BKN CLDS AFT 12Z 040-060 BKN080 WITH VSBY 5SM AT TIMES IN           
SCT -SHRA. PCPN SHUD BE ENDG IN NRN NY ARND 16-18Z AND VT BY 20Z.               
TNGT EXPC SCT CLDS 060-080.                                                     
HV INDCD S OR SW WND GSTS TO 25 KTS AFTR 12Z BASED ON VAD WND PROFILE           
AND H/8 DATA FM 00Z/19TH. SFC WND SHFTS TO W BY LATE MRNG AND ERLY              
AFTN.                                                                           
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...MURRAY                                          
AVIATION...SFH                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
430 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FIRST PROBLEM OF THE MORNING...THE 00Z MODEL RUN WAS ALREADY TOO                
FAST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW.  LOOKING AT THE WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP...THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW HAS JUST                   
STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THIS WAS WELL BEHIND THE               
00Z TIMING AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE 06Z RUN OF THE MODEL RUNS.  SO               
HAVE LEAN TOWARDS THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE            
OF THE SITUATION.                                                               
SATELLITE LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MID            
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 65            
MPH AND HAS ALREADY REACHED OUR SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING NEAR TURLOCK            
AT 2 AM.  THIS PLUME IS RIDING ALONG AN UPPER JET MAX OF 65 TO 70               
KNOT THAT IS ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.  MOST OF THE              
CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES ARE OVER SOUTHERN CA SINCE LAST EVENING.                
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN THE SAN            
JOAQUIN VALLEY.  HOWEVER THE LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK ONLY                   
DETECTS CLOUD TO GROUND.  BASED ON PILOT REPORTS...MANY OF THE                  
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN CLOUD TO CLOUD OR CLOUD TO AIR.  WITH THE LEADING            
SECTION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE                 
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT MOST OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO BE FROM HIGH              
BASED CLOUDS WITH BASES STARTING ABOVE 12000 FEET.  WITH WELL                   
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ONE INITIAL CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY            
LIGHTNING. THIS CONCERN SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE LOWER             
AIRMASS MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.                
THUS EXPECT THE ISOLATED THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING TO DECREASE AND END            
IN MOST AREAS BY MID AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.                           
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ASSOCIATED              
WITH THE NOSE OF THE SPEED MAX AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR COUNTY                 
WARNING AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING.  THIS IS FOLLOW BY               
THE SECOND AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SECOND AREA              
IS ASSOCIATED  WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SPEED MAX. THE DIFFICULT               
PART OF THIS FORECAST WILL BE FORECASTING THE AMOUNT OF                         
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THREE MAIN FACTORS MAKES              
THIS DIFFICULT ARE THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM                 
WHICH MODELS TEND TO BE TO PROGRESSIVE...AN TIMING OF THE LOWERING              
OF THE MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS...AND THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS              
SYSTEM.  IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN                     
SIERRA...THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO DEPEND ON THE                    
OROGRAPHICS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW DRIFTS AND WHETHER IT            
WILL OPEN UP INTO A OPEN WAVE.                                                  
WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON              
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT MAY GET ENTRAINED AROUND THE UPPER LOW.                
FOR NOW...WILL LEAN ON THE SLOWEST MODEL AND WILL HANG ON TO THE                
THREAT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER THEN THE PREVIOUS            
FORECAST PACKAGE. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN LIFTING THIS LOW AND             
THEN OPENING IT UP INTO A WAVE TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT            
DECREASE OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.  SHORTWAVE RIDGE             
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH.  SOME MODELS ARE STILL                 
TRYING TO DEVELOP A BRIEF NORTH WIND PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE                
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN CA TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.                       
HOWEVER...EACH RUN IS A LITTLE WEAKER WITH BOTH THE SURFACE GRADIENT            
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.                                                        
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIG IN FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.  MODELS HINT            
THAT THIS MAY BE A SLIDER TYPE SYSTEM...WHICH IS MORE COMMON THIS               
TIME OF THE YEAR.  WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NORTHERN              
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY IN THE HIGH ELEVATION AREAS FOR THE EXTENDED                 
PERIOD FOR NOW. LAM                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPR LOW OVR SRN CA CSTL WTRS MOVG SLOWLY NEWD THRU 00Z.  FLOW ALF               
LIGHT-MDT S-SE.  AMS BECMG INCRG MOIST AND UNSTBL THRU 00Z. VFR                 
CNTRL CA SCT050 BKN100 OVC150 TOP FL250 ISOL -SHRA/-TSRA.  ALG CSTLN            
IFR CIG BR -SHRA BKN010 TOPS 020 LCL 3-5SM BR...AFT 17Z VFR BKN050              
-SHRA/-TSRA TOP FL250.  OVR SIERNV AFT 17Z AREAS -SHRA/-TSRA CIGS               
BKN040 MTS OBSC TOP FL250.  SG                                                  
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1013 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                     
...SVR WX POTENTIAL IN SNE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM WORKWEEK IN               
PROGRESS...                                                                     
M3: 1009 AM. STILL HOLDING OFF ON GENERAL SPS UNTIL MORE DEFINITIVE             
SIGNAL. NAM AND NGM VIEWED THRU 00Z/21.                                         
M2: 951 AM  LATEST RUC IS INTERESTING FOR MID AFTN. SAW SPC UPGRADE.            
HOLDING OFF ON GENERAL SPS FOR ISO SVR TIL 1015 AM VIEW OF NEW 12 HR            
NAM AND NGM.  STORMS ALREADY TO EL IN E MA.  WILL UPDATE THIS AFD               
ARD 1015 AM.  LATE MORING CWF WILL BE DELAYED 30 MIN FOR POSSIBLE               
SVR INCLUSION.                                                                  
M1 846AM: HAVE BRIEFLY COLLAB WITH SPC.  5% SEE TEXT MATERIAL IN THE            
13Z UPDATE.  IF ANY MORE HEATING THAN CURRENTLY MODELED THEN BIGGER             
PROBS ARISE. WIND FIELDS STRONG...JUST BELOW RULE OF THUMB TOR                  
CRITERIA FOR 60KT SHEAR LOWEST 10K (ABT 10KT SHY). SOME MODEL                   
SOUNDING FCSTS OF BRN ARD 25...SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...TT ARD 50...               
SWEAT 300+...EXCT TIME OF DAY. DIFFLUENT THICKNESS AND SO DESPIUTE              
CONFUSING RFQ OF 3H JET...SVR WX POTENTIAL EXISTS.                              
SKYWARN HAS BEEN BRIEFED. WE MAY UPDATE THIS FCST AND IF MORE                   
CONFIDENT...SPS AT 10AM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
PRIOR DISCUSSION FM THE MID SHIFT...                                            
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WILL QUICKLY APPROACH                     
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.            
INSTABILITY BURST ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION                 
PATTERN INDICATED AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM KBGM              
RADAR OVER UPSTATE NY AND PENNSYLVANIA. THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION             
SHOULD CROSS THE BERKSHIRES SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AND THROUGH THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. ADDITIONAL              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY              
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NOTED               
THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION WHICH BRINGS SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. UPPER             
LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR IMPRESSIVE BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME                 
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY                  
APPEARS RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SURFACED            
BASED LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 1 TO MINUS 2 AND CAPE VALUES NEAR             
500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THUS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE INITIAL            
INSTABILITY BURST WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE LOWER LEVELS TODAY.                 
WIND FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH 700                    
MILLIBARS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUMP TO 1.8G/KG IMMEDIATELY                
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE                
RATHER HIGH TODAY WITH 0C ISOTHERM NEAR 12K FEET AND -20 CELCIUS                
ISOTHERM NEAR 22.5K. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO ADD THE MENTION OF               
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY                    
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE                 
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                  
FAST-LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS NEW             
ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO QUICK WEATHER CHANGES.            
FIRST...A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE                  
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRES SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. BY                
THURSDAY...A WARM SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION AS            
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT              
LAKES. SO DESPITE AUTUMN ARRIVING THU...EXPECT A SUMMER-LIKE DAY WITH           
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S (AWAY FROM THE                   
S.CST)...AS BOTH GFS AND UKMET HAVE 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO +14C TO              
+16C.                                                                           
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES              
THRU THE REGION FRI. 00Z GFS/UKMET AND CAN GLOB ALL IN GOOD                     
AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE REGION FRI...WITH A DRYING              
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THUS...HIGHEST                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ON AND DECREASE DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ALTHOUGH GIVEN TIME RANGE AND                    
SURROUNDING OFFICES NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS FASTER SOLUTION...WILL             
KEEP CURRENT FRI FCST AS IS. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE FULL              
00Z MODEL SUITE AND COLLABORATE FOR A POSSIBLE DRIER FORECAST LATE              
FRI AND FRI NIGHT.                                                              
BY SAT MORNING...BOTH 00Z GFS/CAN GLOB AND UKMET HAVE FROPA OFFSHORE            
FOLLOWED BY A GOOD PUSH OF COOL CANADIAN AIR AS UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES            
AS IT CROSSES THE MARITIMES. THIS IS QUICKER THAN CURRENT                       
FORECAST...ALTH AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IF TREND CONTINUES DAY-SHIFT MAY           
HAVE TO TRANSITION TO A DRY FCST FOR SAT.                                       
UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL TRANSPORT NEXT                 
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED FROPA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOCAL IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS IN STRATUS THROUGH 12Z. MVFR/IFR                  
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 12Z.           
VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 02-06Z TONIGHT AFTER FRONTAL              
PASSAGE. FOG PATCHES POSSIBLE WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS IN THE               
SHELTERED VALLEYS BEYOND 06Z.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT RANGE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED TODAY AND THIS            
EVENING FOR WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS APPROACHING 7            
FEET ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.                                                    
IN THE LONG RANGE...SW WINDS COULD GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THU AHEAD OF THE           
FRONT. THEN A PERIOD OF GUSTY N TO NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRI               
NIGHT INTO SAT AM BEHIND FROPA. THEREAFTER...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS               
EXPECTED (PENDING TRACK OF PHILIPPE) AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER THE                
REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TODAY ALL WATERS.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MESO...DRAG                                                                     
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS/DRAG                                                       
LONG TERM...NOCERA/KAB                                                          
AVIATION...STRAUSS/DRAG                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
928 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS BREAKING UP QUICKER THIS MORNING THAN IT DID             
YESTERDAY. THUS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR FULL SUN VALUES FROM               
LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME...IN THE LOWER 90S. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE             
CURRENT FORECAST SO NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED. WILL SEND AN UPDATE              
ONLY TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG.                                      
SEVERE THREAT...A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY CENTER NOW CROSSING            
KY WILL LIKELY INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS                
AFTERNOON...AND MOVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT AFTER 18Z. 12Z GSO                  
SOUNDING MODIFIED TO 90/70 YIELDS A CAPE OVER 3000 J/KG AND A LI OF             
-7. THE THETA-E DIFFERENCE IN THE LOWEST 300 MB...A GOOD PARAMETER              
FOR STRAIGHT-LINE WIND POTENTIAL...INDICATES THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL              
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE ON THE LOW                     
SIDE...SO HAIL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP            
IN THE OBSERVED SOUNDING...HOWEVER THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW              
COOLING AROUND 500 MB WILL CREATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES THIS                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 220 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
THROUGH DAYBREAK: SO FAR THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAVE                    
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS IS                   
QUICKLY CHARGING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH VERY LIGHT SE WINDS &             
HIGH DEWPOINTS... FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD                      
EVERYWHERE. WILL CONSIDER AN EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO             
THE NW CWA IF PRESENT TRENDS PERSIST.                                           
MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD BACKBUILDING CONVECTION                 
CONTINUES PUSHING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND KY... OUTPACING GFS/NAM             
PROJECTIONS & EXCEEDING BOTH MODELS' QPFS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF               
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PETER OUT AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE            
LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AND PRIME INSTABILITY. THE ATTENDANT                    
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO NC LATE TODAY BRINGING            
INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... DESTABILIZING LI VALUES TO -2 TO            
-4... AND CAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR IN             
PLACE... EXPECT CONVECTION BE MULTICELLULAR... MOVING INTO THE NW               
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON... POSSIBLY INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER                 
TERRAIN RATHER THAN AS A PURE TRANSLATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION...             
THEN DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING & OVERNIGHT. THE GFS             
REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE NAM WITH BOTH RAIN ONSET AND WITH              
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH... AND BASED ON THE RUC AND PRE-ECLIPSE WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY THE NAM SPEED MAY BE CLOSER TO REALITY... ALTHOUGH NAM            
PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR UNDERDONE CONSIDERING THAT THE PW IS EXPECTED             
TO RISE TO 150% OF NORMAL. MOST OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF                
CHANCE POPS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL DEPEND A            
GREAT DEAL ON THE DEPTH & EXTENT OF STRATUS THIS MORNING AND WILL               
STICK WITH 88-92 FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY REMAINING            
HIGH... FAVOR THE WARM END OF MOS GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...                 
65-72.                                                                          
WED THROUGH THU: THE SURFACE FRONT AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THROUGH THU AS WEAK               
HIGH PRESSURE ZIPS BY TO THE NORTH. WILL HOLD ONTO RAIN CHANCES                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ACTING             
ON A GOOD AMOUNT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE                 
COLUMN. WILL RAISE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF WED               
AND EVERYWHERE THU WITH A NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS.                        
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING               
UPPER RIDGING DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS...             
LIKELY TO YIELD TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. BASED ON            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE... AT THIS TIME DO NOT FAVOR THE BACKDOOR            
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z/20               
GFS. IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHERE RITA'S REMNANTS WILL GO              
DAYS 6/7 AND WILL RETAIN DRY WEATHER.                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IS               
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND STRATUS. MOSTLY VFR CIGS                
EXCEPT PATCHY CIGS NEAR 1KFT AND MVFR VSBYS. CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME             
IFR WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 07Z-09Z. AFTER 09Z                  
THROUGH 14Z WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS. STRATUS AND FOG WILL                
GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER 14Z BCMG SCT-BKN LAYER 3-5KFT. 21Z-03Z...SCT               
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH CIGS 2-3KFT VSBYS 3-5 MILES.                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DGS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1220 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO FRESHEN WORDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES             
TO LATER PERIODS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
BASED ON RECENT NAM GFS AND RUC MODEL RUNS...EXPECT SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY                
AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH                       
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND                              
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.                                            
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS MOS                     
VALUES.                                                                         
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE                     
NORTHERN U.S. OCCASIONAL INFLUX OF ENERGY FROM CANADIAN SHORT-WAVE              
TROUGHS PHASING INTO THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN FRONTAL PASSAGES                  
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY.                              
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
TSTMS DEVELOPED NR ERI, MUCH AS MOIST FLUX INDICATED. BASED ON THAT,            
SRN HALF OF CWA IS IN JEOPARDY OF THUNDER AND RAIN. IT IS EXPECTED              
TO END IN PIT AT 13Z, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF BKN035, THEN SCT050,              
AND CLR BY 23Z, AS VIGOROUS H5 TROF PUSHES E. FOG UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT            
(6-12Z WED). FOR MGW, I PUT RAIN, NOT THUNDER, TIL 17Z, CLR BY 00Z.             
DUJ HAS THUNDER TIL 08Z, THEN A PD OF RAIN, BKN015 AT 15Z, SCT035 AT            
17Z, CLR BY 23Z. WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-23KT IN MID AFTN, ACCORDING               
TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM.                               
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
235 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH TO KNOCK TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN TO MORE             
REASONABLE LEVELS FOR MID SEPTEMBER...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL.              
AVERAGES FOR TOMORROW ARE DCA MAX 78 MIN 60...BWI MAX 77 MIN 55.                
BEFORE THAT THERE IS THE THREAT OF SOME SHRA AND TSRA...MAINLY SE OF            
BALT AND DC. IN THAT AREA THERE IS DECENT INSTAB AROUND 1000 J PER              
KG AND A THETA E RIDGE. HELICITY AROUND 80. SATELLITE REVEALS THE               
PROBLEMATIC AREA WITH A GOOD CU FIELD OVER SE MD AND SE AND CENTRAL             
VA. SPC HAS ISSUED A SVR TSTM WATCH JUST S OF OUR AREA THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND EVE. AT 2 PM...WATER VAPOR AND LATEST RUC MODEL SHOW A            
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN WV. ALL OF THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME            
CONVECTION TO BEGIN SE OF DC AND BALT.                                          
BY EVENING HOWEVER... THE THREAT WILL BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS                 
DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. POPS DOWN TO ZERO BY                    
MIDNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THEN PAST THAT AND THROUGH                        
WEDNESDAY... DO NOT SEE ANY REASON FOR ANY SORT OF CLOUDS. FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ANY CU AND NGM MODEL KEEPS ALL HIGH CLOUDS             
AWAY. SHOULD BE A GREAT MID SEPTEMBER DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN               
THE LOWER 80S.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKY COVER WITH FROPA FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS             
WITH OVC AROUND 080. FOG NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR                  
MOVING IN.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AT 2PM BAY HAS S TO SW WINDS 10 TO            
15 KT...EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AFTER FROPA WITH WINDS BACKING NW...              
THEN N WED MORNING AND DIMINISHING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.            
A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY.            
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY              
NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED              
MONDAY.                                                                         
ALOFT...A 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. THE             
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGH              
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                  
STATES. ZONAL FLOW WILL SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BY SATURDAY AS THE                 
SOUTHERN RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.                                                     
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY              
WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 10 DEGREES COOLER AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER THE             
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO              
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONTAL SYSTEM.             
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RITA FOR ANY REMNANT EFFECTS.                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/AVIATION/MARINE...STRONG                                                  
LONG...SEA                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW FAST ZONAL FLOW               
ALG THE US/CNDN BORDER TO THE N OF PERSISTENT RDG ACRS THE SRN CONUS            
DOWNWIND OF CUTOFF LO OFF THE CA COAST. FA UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK              
SFC RDG THIS MRNG. 12Z GRB/APX SDNGS ARE DRY AND STABLE (KINX -10 AT            
GRB/-6 AT APX)...BUT INSOLATION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SFC HAS             
COMBINED WITH SOME  LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THESE RAOBS/RECENT TAMDAR                
SDNG FM SAW TO CAUSE SOME SC/AC BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H75.                  
OTRW...FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV NOTED MOVING THRU NW ONTARIO THIS AFTN.               
ALTHOUGH ATTENDANT COLD FNT/LO PRES TROF APRCHG THE WRN ZNS THIS                
AFTN...AIRMASS UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS/MN SO RELATIVELY                      
DRY/STABLE (KINX ARND 15 AT MPX/ INL) AND AREA IN SUBSIDING RIGHT               
EXIT REGION OF SUPPORTING 120KT H3 JET MAX TRACKING ACRS SCNTRL                 
CAN...THERE IS BARELY A CLD ALG THE BNDRY. AIRMASS UNDER WEAK RDG               
AXIS IN THE NRN PLAINS BEHIND THE TROF IS EVEN DRIER...12Z PWAT/KINX            
AT BIS 0.39 INCH/3. NEXT SHRTWV IN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS NOW MOVING                
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS INTO WED...THEN PCPN CHCS             
LATE WED INTO THU ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO BRITISH                
COLUMBIA/CUTOFF LO OFF THE CA COAST.                                            
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV NOW IN NW ONTARIO PROGGED TO DRIVE QUICKLY EWD                
INTO QUEBEC BY 12Z WED...WITH ATTENDANT LO PRES TROF CLRG THE ERN FA            
THIS EVNG AND FLAT SFC HI PRES RDG IN THE PLAINS PUSHING E OF ERY BY            
DAWN. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SFC AHEAD OF THE SFC                
TROF SHIFTS E OF ERY BY FCST ISSUANCE. ALTHOUGH RETURN SW FLOW                  
COMMENCES LATE TNGT IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC RDG...UPSTREAM AIRMASS IS            
SO DRY THERE SHOULD BE LTL IF ANY CLD. SO EXPECT A MOCLR SKY TNGT AS            
DRY PACIFIC AIR TO THE W FLOODS EWD IN ZONAL FLOW. ALTHOUGH WINDS               
MAY GO LGT FOR A SHORT TIME AS SFC RDG AXIS PASSES OVHD...THERE                 
SHOULD BE ENUF OF A WIND MOST OF THE TIME TO RESTRICT DIURNAL FALL              
OF TEMP/PSBL FOG FORMATION. SFC DWPTS UPSTREAM OVER THE NRN PLAINS              
AS LO AS THE UPR 30S...BUT WIND ABV SHALLOW RADIATION INVRN SHOULD              
BE ENUF TO KEEP TEMPS EVEN OVER THE COLDER INTERIOR SPOTS FM GOING              
BLO 45.                                                                         
ON WED...SHRTWV NOW ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA PROGGED TO MOVE INTO              
NW ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY...CAUSING SFC TROF TO DVLP OVER THE               
UPR GRT LKS LATE IN THE DAY. GFS PERSISTS IN SHOWING H85 DWPT RISING            
UP 12C LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE W IN RETURN SW FLOW BTWN DVLPG TROF             
AND DEPARTING RDG TO THE E...BUT 12Z H85 RAOBS SUG THIS MSTR RETURN             
IS PROBABLY TOO AGGRESSIVE. NAM/UKMET/NGM DO GENERATE PCPN OVER THE             
ERN ZNS WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MORE SUSTAINED AND HAS A CHC TO                
SATURATE VERY DRY AIRMASS (NAM ALSO PUSHES SFC DWPTS IN THIS AREA IN            
LK MI MODIFIED FLOW TOWARD AN UNREALISTIC 70)...BUT WL KEEP E DRY               
FOR NOW AND REMOVE PCPN MENTION FM THE W BECAUSE UPSTREAM AIRMASS               
ACRS THE PLAINS IS SO DRY. OTRW...DAY WL BE A WARM ONE WITH H85                 
TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO 17-18C NR THE WI BORDER. MIXING TO H8 ON                  
GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE OVER THE SCNTRL            
AWAY FM LK MI INFLUENCE IN FCST SW FLOW.                                        
FOR WED NGT...FCST WL DEPEND ON COMPLEX INTERACTION BTWN SHRTWV                 
MOVING THRU ONTARIO AND REMNANTS OF CUTOFF UPR LO NOW OFF THE CA                
COAST THAT IS FCST TO SHEAR ENEWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST LATE WED NGT.            
NAM/GFS/UKMET TEND TO FOCUS HIER QPF OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS WHERE                  
BETTER DPVA/H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV REMNANTS                 
INTERACT WITH RRQ OF UPR JET MAX IN SE CAN/ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT/              
FAIRLY SHARP H7-6 FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO SHRTWV. WL              
BUMP UP POPS TO 50 ACRS THE SCNTRL BUT THEN CUT BACK TO JUST LO CHC             
OVER THE KEWEENAW. GRDL MOISTURE RETURN/CLDS WL HOLD UP TEMPS MUCH              
OF THE NGT... BUT READINGS WL FALL LATER FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA IN            
THE WAKE OF ONTARIO SHRTWV.                                                     
LINGERING SHRA WL END THU MRNG AS SFC HI PRES/COOLER AND DRIER AIR              
UNDER INCRSLY CONFLUENT WLY FLOW BLD INTO THE AREA. H85 TEMPS FCST              
TO FALL TO ARND 3C BY THE END OF THE DAY OVER THE KEWEENAW.                     
POTENTIAL FOR FROST A REAL ONE OVER THE INTERIOR W/CNTRL FA THU NGT             
WITH SFC HI PRES CENTER BLDG TOWARD CYQT BY 12Z FRI AND AXIS OF MIN             
PWAT ARND 0.33 INCH MOVING OVER THE WRN CWA AS LLVL FLOW BCMS                   
DIFFLUENT AND LGT UNDER THE RDG AXIS TOWARD 12Z. AVN MOS WITH COOP              
SITES SHOWS LO TEMPS AS LO AS 31 NR THE WI BORDER. WL INCLUDE                   
MENTION OF PTCHY FROST IN THESE AREAS...BUT WL NOT FCST TEMPS THAT              
LO RIGHT NOW.                                                                   
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE...CANADIAN HIGH PRES PROGGED TO BUILD              
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS THU NGT WL LINGER INTO SAT...WITH H85 TEMPS AS             
LO AS 2-4C ON FRI. ALTHOUGH THIS H85 TEMP WOULD BE LO ENUF TO                   
WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF LK EFFECT PCPN... DRY ACYC NATURE OF THE               
FLOW WOULD MINIMIZE THIS THREAT. THE HI CENTER WL MOVE QUICKLY TO               
THE E ON SAT UNDER A BLDG UPR RDG DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING WRN TROF.             
ALTHOUGH A RETURN SLY FLOW WL DVLP...DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LOCATION            
OF FNT ON THE SRN EDGE OF DRY AIRMASS WELL TO THE S WL ALLOW FOR                
ONLY INCRSG HI CLDS AS UPR RDG AXIS PUSHES TO THE E. HAVE MAINTAINED            
GOING CHC POPS FOR LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE W AND ENTIRE CWA SAT               
NGT INTO SUN AS INTENSIFYING NRN BRANCH TROF DRIVES COLD FNT TOWARD             
AND THRU THE FA. THEN COOLER ON MON AS CNDN HI PRES BLDS INTO THE               
UPR GRT LKS AND H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD 0C PER THE ECMWF/00Z GFS. PER             
NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS TO MAINTAIN              
DRY FCST THRU TUE. 06Z GFS INDICATED WRN TROF LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE            
UPR GRT LKS...BUT 00Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAINED DRY NW NRN BRANCH NW FLOW            
ALF.                                                                            
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
245 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
HIGH PRESSURE AND NARY A CLOUD IN SIGHT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY             
TIGHT DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A            
RATHER TRICKY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT. BOTH RUC AND ETA            
SHOW GRADIENT MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT...SO AREAS WEST OF JAMES VALLEY             
SHOULD RADIATE WELL...AND THUS DROPPED WESTERN CWA TEMPS AROUND 5               
DEGREES. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL ON TRACK FOR LATE TOMORROW...AND                 
STILL A DRY PASSAGE MAINTAINED. PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED POST            
FRONTAL WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING AT 700MB. CONCERN WITH THIS IS              
TWOFOLD. FIRST...WITH MOST FORCING WELL ALOFT...AND BOUNDARY LAYERS             
STAYING QUITE DRY IN ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO             
MOISTEN UP COLUMN ENOUGH TO RAIN. SECOND...12 UTC ETA BACKED OFF THE            
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. MORE CONVECTIVE RELEASE NOTED               
OVER MINNESOTA AHEAD OF FRONT AND LESS FOR US. TO ACCOUNT FOR                   
THIS...DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIPITATION OUT WEST...AND SHADED POPS                
LOWER IN NORTH. GFS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS SO DIDN'T REMOVE                      
COMPLETELY...BUT DEFINITELY DOWNPLAYED IT.                                      
TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING. NEXT               
PRECIP ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY LATE...BUT ETA IS A BIT SLOWER THAN                  
BEFORE.                                                                         
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW WESTERN CWA STILL THERE...BUT                
CURRENT GRIDS LACK BOTH WIND SPEEDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES TO WARRANT               
RED FLAG WATCH. WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION STRONGER               
POST FRONTAL WINDS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MAX HEATING. STILL VERY HIGH             
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...BUT NO WATCH ISSUED.                                   
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                           
NOT VERY MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED THIS TIME AROUND.               
MODELS STILL AGREE WITH A TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND            
A PIECE OF ENERGY GETTING EJECTED OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT               
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND EC SEEM TO INDICATE THIS WAVE                 
GETTING PICKED UP IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM AS IT                
MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. AS THIS HAPPENS...A CUTOFF              
LOW FORMS OVER THE CALIFORNIA AREA. DID NOT CHANGE WX/POP GRIDS AND             
KEPT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH 12Z SUN. MODELS STILL SHOWING HIGH RH IN            
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND KEPT SKY COVER FAIRLY HIGH FOR SAT INTO               
SAT NIGHT. GFS AND EC NOW AGREE ON A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE             
REGION ON SUN AND MON BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE. GFS MOVES THE HIGH             
OFF TO THE EAST WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT ANCHORED OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO            
MONDAY NIGHT. MEX GUIDANCE IS NOW QUITE A BIT COOLER FOR LATE IN THE            
EXTENDED AND THE TREND WAS TO LOWER TEMPS FURTHER FROM PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST. GFS BRINGS THE MAIN CUTOFF LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
BY TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD QPF. THIS WAS ALSO SEEN IN THE 06Z RUN               
BUT WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO FROM A FEW                 
DIFFERENT MODELS BEFORE ANY PRECIP IS ADDED.                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HARDING/TARVER                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
600 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
FEW SMALL SHRA POPPING UP IN NORTHERN CWA...WORKING WITH WHAT                   
LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS. DESPITE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SEE                 
LITTLE TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING PAST SUNSET. THUS...HAVE REDUCED                  
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CUTTING OFF PRECIP BY 01Z. STILL                  
APPEARS CLOUDS WILL SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR FOR FOG FORMATION                        
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADJUSTED SKY              
GRIDS SOMEWHAT AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK              
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 305 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                               
MESOETA SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB LAGGING TONIGHT WHILE             
THE LATEST RUC AND GFS SHOW DRYING AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING.  HAVE            
KEPT SHOWERS IN THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SHOW A GOOD              
SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.              
ASSUMING DRYING TONIGHT FOG WILL SETTLE IN.  SEE NO GOOD REASON TO              
DEVIATE FROM MIN TEMP ON MOS.                                                   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                  
MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WED              
NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN GUIDANCE FOR                   
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND               
BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN                 
SECTIONS ON SAT.                                                                
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT                 
AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MEX DEPICTS MID TO HIGH                 
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM SUN THROUGH TUE...BUT BELIEVE PRECIP WILL                
START MON AND END EARLY TUE.                                                    
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. GFS SHOWS H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO             
ABOUT 16C WED AND THU....WHILE THE ETA SHOWS TEMPS UP TO 20C BY THU.            
MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO UPPER 80S TO                  
AROUND 90 FOR THURSDAY. KEPT THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE                    
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT CLEARING TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AS DRYING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS.               
SO LIFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND WARM RIVER                
WATER IN RIVER VALLEYS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
305 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                              
MESOETA SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE AROUND 850MB LAGGING TONIGHT WHILE             
THE LATEST RUC AND GFS SHOW DRYING AT ALL LEVELS THIS EVENING.  HAVE            
KEPT SHOWERS IN THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SHOW A GOOD              
SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.              
ASSUMING DRYING TONIGHT FOG WILL SETTLE IN.  SEE NO GOOD REASON TO              
DEVIATE FROM MIN TEMP ON MOS.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                 
MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WED              
NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN GUIDANCE FOR                   
FRIDAY...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...AND               
BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT DISSIPATES ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN                 
SECTIONS ON SAT.                                                                
ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT                 
AFFECTS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. MEX DEPICTS MID TO HIGH                 
CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM SUN THROUGH TUE...BUT BELIEVE PRECIP WILL                
START MON AND END EARLY TUE.                                                    
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY BRINGING MOISTURE AND WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. GFS SHOWS H8 TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO             
ABOUT 16C WED AND THU....WHILE THE ETA SHOWS TEMPS UP TO 20C BY THU.            
MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO UPPER 80S TO                  
AROUND 90 FOR THURSDAY. KEPT THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 80S. MORE                    
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT CLEARING TONIGHT AFTER 00Z AS DRYING OCCURS AT ALL LEVELS.               
SO LIFR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND WARM RIVER                
WATER IN RIVER VALLEYS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 711 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z TO 12Z)...                                                        
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY             
A THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT GET MUCH WORSE THAN MVFR.            
TONIGHT...IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL HANG IN AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN               
SITES...MOSTLY ABOVE 3KFT.  THIS WILL KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING.              
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY NIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN SITES...WHERE IT              
DOES CLEAR.                                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
COLD FRONT TRAVERSES AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY.                    
ASSOCIATED RAIN SUPPORTED BY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL                
SPIN...THOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING WEAK.  THEREFORE THIS IS PANNING OUT            
TO BE MAINLY A MVFR EVENT WITH LOWER CIGS AND VIS ONLY WITH THE                 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.                                                              
INSTABILITY MAINLY ON HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWS PUSHING 1.75             
INCHES FROM THE NAM SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND NO REASON              
TO BELIEVE THEY WILL NOT CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WENT WITH             
HPC QPF VALUES BETWEEN A QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH WHICH SEEMS                  
REASONABLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOCALLY             
HIGHER VALUES IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH.                                  
CLEARING TAKES PLACE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH NAM                 
PARTICULARLY DRY LOOKING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH LOW DEW POINTS                  
COMING IN.  IT DOES APPEAR TO SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CUMULUS BEHIND                 
CLEARING LINE OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES GIVEN ENOUGH HOURS OF SUNSHINE            
THERE.                                                                          
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MUCH A FUNCTION OF HOW QUICKLY CLEARING               
TAKES PLACE.  MIDDLE GROUND MET APPEARED TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE                 
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT THAT IT HAS PERFORMED WELL OVER THE PAST                  
COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS.                             
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY THIS EVENING GIVING             
WAY TO A SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING SE FM THE GRTLKS.  BENIGN WX THEN             
ENSUES UNTIL THUR NGT OR FRI.  IN THE MEANTIME...MID LVL HGTS BUILD             
PROVIDING A CLR SKY AND OVRNGT FG DEVELOPMENT IN RVR VLYS TNGT THRU             
DAY 2 NGT.                                                                      
ANAFRONT DROPS SLOWLY S FM LAKE ERIE THUR NGT INTO FRI.  THERE IS               
STILL SOME QSTN HOW FAR S THE FRONT WL PENETRATE INTO THE                       
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR LVL HIGH.  FOR THE TIME BEING...INCREASED               
CLDS AND POPS OVR FAR NWRN SECTIONS AND TRIMMED BACK SRN EXTENT OF              
SCHC POPS IN THE COAL FIELDS.                                                   
NAM CONTS TO PLAY UP A LOT OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY IN THE WARM             
XCTR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFT 06Z FRI.  MUCAPES STAY ABOVE 2.0KJ/KG               
AND GOOD BL EQUIV POT TEMP/CONV IS FCST.  ANOTHER POINT OF INTEREST             
IS STG H2 UPR LVL DIV IN THE OH VLY.  DISCRETE PROPAGATION COULD                
BRING A TSTM COMPLEX INTO NRN FA EARLY FRI MRNG...SOMETHING TO WATCH            
OUT FOR IN FUTURE RUNS.                                                         
H8 TEMPS AGAIN PUSH 20C LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO                 
HIGHS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S PREDICTED IN THE TRI STATE            
AREA DAY 3.  OVERALL...PLAYED NUMBERS ALONG THE LINES OF THE WARMER             
MET GVN ITS OUTSTANDING VERIFICATION OF LATE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
LONG TERM...ARJ                                                                 
AVIATION...AAR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv