FXUS04 KWBC 190704
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
303 AM EDT SAT JUN 19 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 20/1200 UTC THRU JUN 21/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1...

SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...

HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO CONT DAY 1 ACRS THE SRN PLAINS FROM SRN
OK/NRN TX ALONG THE STNRY FRONTAL BNDRY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACRS THIS AREA.   VERY MOIST SLY TO SELY INFLOW INTO THE
BNDRY AND FAVORABLE UPR DIFFLUENCE FROM SHRTWV ENERGY MOVG
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WLYS SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUATION OF
PRESENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A SLOW SEWD MOVEMENT. 
THE ETA AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST THAT PCPN POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SE TODAY OVR NERN TX AND PUSH SEWD INTO LA IN
ASSOC WITH A MAX IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INITIALLY OVR
NERN TX THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTIVE CELL MOTION VECTORS
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME...ADDING TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  WITH THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS...MANUAL
DAY 1 QPF TRENDED TOWARD THE HEAVIER ETA/ETAKF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS..WITH AREAL AVG .75-1.25"+ AMTS FROM N TX SEWD INTO
WRN LA

CNTRL PLAINS...

ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN
OVR NERN CO/SERN WY AND PRESS ESEWD INTO SRN NE AND NRN KS
ALONG THE DEVELOPING W-E ORIENTED FRONT ACRS THIS REGION. 
THE ETA AND GFS WERE SIMILAR IN SHOWING STRENGTHENING SELY
INFLOW INTO THIS FRONT SAT AFTERNOON...WITH BOTH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING WELL DEFINED UPR DIFFLUENCE INVOF NRN KS/SRN NE.  ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WL LIKELY PROGRESS FAIRLY
QUICKLY TO THE SE...WITH DAY 1 QPF DEPICTING .50-75" MAX
AREAL AVG AMTS ALONG THIS FRONT.  

NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

THE UPR FLOW REMAIN FAIRLY BLOCKED FROM WRN CAN SWD INTO THE
PAC NW DURG DAY 1 WITH A CLOSED HIGH INVOF THE AK
PANHANDLE/WRN CA AND A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED LOW OVR THE PAC
NW/NRN INTERMT REGION.  THIS CLOSED LOW WL CONT TO PRODUCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT DOWNSTREAM OF IT..WITH COOL WET WEATHER TO
CONT OVR THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  

EAST COAST...

NRN STREAM HT FALLS PUSHING ACRS SERN CAN/NERN U.S. WL HELP
TO ACCELERATE A CDFNT SEWD INTO THE NERN U.S. AND MID ATL
DURG SAT.  GREATEST RAIN THREAT WL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND AHEAD
OF THE STRONGEST UPR DYNAMICS...WITH SOME .25"+ AMTS POSSIBLE
FOR NRN ME.

SERN U.S...

THE ERN FRONT WL BE PRESSING FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH THRU THE
SERN U.S. BY THE END OF DAY 1.  ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP TO FIRE ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONTAL BNDRY FROM ERN NC...SWWD THRU ERN SC AND INTO NRN GA
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.  LOCALLY HVY PCPN AMTS ARE POSSIBLE
HERE.   

DAY 2...

GULF COAST/COASTAL SOUTHEAST...

A CDFNT WL BE SLIPPING SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS REGION WITH
A PUSH OF DRIER AIR...BUT AREAS NR THE COAST AND ESP ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WL STILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROPICAL
AIRMASS. XPCT THERE TO AGAIN BE PLENTY OF CONVECTION DRIVEN BY
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF MESOSCALE BNDRYS WHICH
SHD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE EITHER WITH
PWS PROGGED ON BOTH THE ETA AND GFS TO BE NR 2.0 INCHES AND
LOCALLY HIGHER. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION SHD BE IN
NRN/CENT FL WHERE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE SHD BE MAXIMIZED.
MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THE GFS AMTS. THE ETA APPEARS TO BE
OVERDONE A BIT IN N FL WITH ITS MAXIMA.

NRN PLAINS...

XPCT HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING SEWD FRM CANADA TO MOV ACRS THE
REGION AND DRIVE A NEW CDFNT SEWD. THIS FRONT WL BE RATHER
MOISTURE STARVED AS THE BEST MOISTURE IS TIED UP ALONG A BNDRY
IN THE CENT PLAINS AND LWR MS VLY. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
EXIST TO GENERATE SOME SCT CONVECTION AND MAINLY DURING THE PD
OF MAX HEATING. MANUAL PROGS FAVOR SOME BLENDING OF THE ETA
AND GFS WITH THIS. THE UKMET AND CMC SOLNS GENERALLY SUPPORT
THE GFS AT THE MASS FIELD LVL...BUT PCPN SEEMS PERHAPS A BIT
UNDERDONE ON THE GFS GIVEN THE DYNAMICS/UPR FORCING DROPPING
SWD. THE UKMET PCPN ALSO SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE FRONT DROPPING
DOWN LIKE THE ETA. IN ANY CASE...RAINFALL AMTS SHD BE FAIRLY LGT
WITH THE FRONT SINCE PWS HERE SHD ONLY BE AROUND 0.75 INCH.

CENT PLAINS/MID MS VLY...

XPCT A FRONT TO BE STALLED ACR THE REGION INITIALLY WHILE RATHER
HIGH PWS REMAIN POOLED ALONG AND JUST S OF THE BNDRY. S/WV
ENERGY ASSOC WITH DYING MCS ACTIVITY SHD WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY...EVENTUALLY
ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE.  THEREAFTER THE APPROACH
OF NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS FRM THE NW SHD BEGIN TO LIFT THE
FRONT NWD AS A WMFNT BY LATE IN THE PD. RATHER STG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY NR THE FRONT AND INTO A REGION OF H25
RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND INCREASING MID LVL SHEAR WL LIKELY HELP
INITIATE SOME STG MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PD AND WITH NOCTURNAL
LLJ SUPPORT. FEELING THAT THE GFS IS UNDERDONE WITH ITS MAXIMA
AND THAT HEAVIER ETA IS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE MID/UPR
LVL FORCING. RAINFALL AMTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 20/12Z
 0.01 507660 505653 502648 497645 493639 488631 482627 477625 
      466621 460617 456616 443619 437623 434622 432624 428624 
      427630 426635 427639 429645 431648 433657 434666 433673 
      427680 423686 420690 416698 414707 416711 420717 422722 
      425726 426728 430731 434733 440732 456723 467717 481710 
      494701 497701 500699 503691 506684 507676 507660 
 0.01 492153 491145 489138 486126 481113 479103 479095 477088 
      471080 467072 463064 449059 446056 444052 444047 443042 
      439038 436036 433031 431027 428016 425007 424993 427982 
      429969 428960 426957 423952 421949 414943 410941 407939 
      400938 395938 392941 387947 385955 384959 384964 382976 
      381979 379983 371982 368979 366976 360969 357965 354958 
      353946 352936 351933 347930 340925 334919 330914 328907 
      325900 319881 319875 321871 324866 328857 334850 342844 
      347845 351849 359855 363856 367854 373847 376841 380832 
      382827 384824 386822 391819 395817 399814 407802 412793 
      411787 409784 405782 400784 397785 393783 389784 384787 
      375792 368791 365781 367771 368761 366750 360749 345749 
      341749 333757 325769 321774 318778 313781 310783 306787 
      305792 302794 285793 255792 251795 250797 247802 244808 
      247811 249814 251819 252823 254827 258828 263829 269827 
      270823 273822 277823 281826 287834 288843 284877 282885 
      280892 280897 281903 283914 287933 291948 293962 299972 
      304979 309984 312988 313992 316001 319010 321014 323019 
      320026 315033 312036 306041 299046 296052 294058 295064 
      299070 308074 318077 324077 327075 335071 343067 350062 
      355058 364056 373055 378055 383057 388061 394065 399068 
      401071 405078 407082 409087 410095 410103 407107 406115 
      408125 410129 414131 420131 424131 428122 429125 429133 
      430147 432156 439171 444178 447184 454189 460184 465177 
      467173 472171 482171 485169 488165 487161 488158 492153 
 0.25 494672 492664 489660 484657 481657 475660 471665 465675 
      458685 452694 446705 445711 446712 452709 457706 467700 
      476695 486688 492683 494678 494672 
 0.25 475159 473150 471143 468137 466129 466120 467115 468109 
      468103 464099 458097 454093 448089 444088 438088 436092 
      436096 438106 441111 444116 446122 450123 454122 457123 
      460127 461134 460139 461144 462152 464158 468161 472160 
      475159 
 0.25 427052 427043 427036 423027 416002 412976 411967 409962 
      407957 403956 400967 400978 397991 393998 389003 389010 
      394020 395025 394028 391027 389029 385030 385032 388035 
      395039 399044 402046 409051 416057 420060 424061 427056 
      427052 
 0.25 356763 353761 350763 346769 333786 328793 323801 319807 
      316804 313806 310809 308812 306822 306832 308842 310841 
      312837 315829 319820 324814 327813 330811 333808 338801 
      348785 354776 356772 357767 356763 
 0.25 372022 372014 372007 368999 360985 354978 350970 347961 
      345951 344948 341942 336937 332930 327924 321919 317912 
      310898 307886 306879 295886 289892 287900 286908 288914 
      294934 298943 302948 308955 312962 316969 318976 324994 
      327002 333008 340012 348013 351016 353020 357026 360034 
      364034 367033 369030 371025 372022 
 0.25 359044 358039 355038 347037 341037 332038 327041 322045 
      319052 320057 324058 333056 338054 346051 352049 358045 
      359044 
 0.50 418033 417022 414014 413010 412995 409980 408975 405970 
      402975 402981 401997 400008 402015 403019 406030 409036 
      412038 415037 418033 
 0.50 359002 358995 354989 348979 345972 343968 342959 340952 
      334942 328933 312918 306908 299901 295901 291903 290908 
      290912 292916 298929 301940 309949 314958 325982 330994 
      332000 335004 340007 346008 356005 359002 
 0.50 343048 341045 339045 338045 335046 335048 335049 338049 
      341049 343048 
 1.00 335974 333964 332954 329945 326938 322935 318935 314936 
      315942 317950 321956 324962 327971 331978 333977 335974  
 
24HR QP VT 21/12Z
 0.01 541783 539778 535770 531768 528767 526770 517778 513792 
      511799 507806 503813 500821 497828 493834 485844 472862 
      466871 458883 453894 446904 444908 439914 436919 432924 
      428927 425929 422929 417926 416924 418912 419904 420898 
      422885 422876 419870 413866 407866 401869 395872 386876 
      381877 377877 371877 367878 363880 359884 354895 351897 
      346899 342901 341904 338908 335908 329903 324895 321883 
      321871 322861 325850 328840 332829 334822 335815 335802 
      335795 332790 328790 325792 319796 310801 301803 293802 
      286800 277796 259793 251795 246798 244801 242805 241810 
      243817 245820 253826 264830 273833 281836 285839 289844 
      293854 295857 297862 298867 297874 298880 297886 293895 
      289905 288916 286938 286951 284957 281961 274967 271971 
      272978 276981 283980 293974 298971 301969 304970 314971 
      326971 336970 345970 351971 356973 356976 354982 350991 
      335001 325008 317014 309021 301030 293036 287040 278046 
      274047 271046 258045 249042 240039 237040 234043 232045 
      233049 235052 236058 239061 251073 256077 259078 269083 
      274086 281087 295087 300084 304080 310073 313071 319069 
      329068 334067 338065 341058 341055 342051 345049 349048 
      355045 358044 360040 361036 360030 361027 365024 368026 
      372032 373037 376040 384049 390057 400065 404070 411070 
      414069 417070 422073 424089 430100 433105 436112 440117 
      442123 442127 440131 438134 436140 436145 437151 441155 
      448163 453165 458164 464161 468166 473167 482170 492178 
      495180 497185 500187 502190 504189 506189 508190 515195 
      519198 522199 524196 526188 529182 530179 529171 524160 
      523155 519149 517142 516134 514112 514090 514071 514050 
      514034 516014 518997 519990 523982 527977 533974 536973 
      539973 545974 549971 551968 553962 554956 557948 558943 
      558937 560932 560912 560906 559894 557883 555875 553867 
      551857 548845 546833 544818 544812 543804 541783 
 0.01 517268 519264 518258 515255 510245 508240 506234 502229 
      501224 499216 497212 494209 491210 488211 486214 486219 
      488224 492229 494234 498244 503256 505261 508264 510267 
      513269 515269 517268 
 0.01 491121 491109 490103 489098 488085 488072 488046 485040 
      482032 480021 479006 480998 479985 480979 481973 481962 
      481959 480955 478954 473956 468961 463968 458973 453975 
      449974 443971 437977 430981 423984 420986 418990 423998 
      427005 434008 439011 443017 446023 449035 450043 449052 
      450056 452059 456064 460071 462081 464085 467087 471088 
      473091 479107 479114 481120 487123 491121 
 0.25 546916 547907 546897 544881 540864 536848 531825 530822 
      527816 523815 518819 514824 512828 509837 507850 504859 
      501871 499882 499887 501893 503898 505906 507922 507930 
      510937 516941 520941 525940 534940 538940 540938 543933 
      544927 546916 
 0.25 415037 413031 412020 408003 402990 401985 400980 400970 
      401953 401936 399928 396919 393915 388910 383908 377906 
      371906 364908 352914 349919 347926 349935 352945 354950 
      359956 367964 373975 375984 378992 382006 390019 394024 
      396031 397039 402043 410045 412045 414043 415041 415037 
 0.25 322816 321811 318810 311810 302810 296809 283805 275802 
      268801 265801 261804 258809 262814 267818 274822 280824 
      287827 293831 298838 302844 307851 311851 315843 317835 
      322820 322816 
 0.25 323952 323947 321942 319933 316927 312922 306920 303923 
      301925 299932 297938 297947 301953 306955 314956 318956 
      322953 323952 
 0.25 291072 291067 290065 285062 277060 271059 264057 258055 
      254055 252057 253063 257069 262072 269074 275076 283076 
      288074 291072 
 0.50 536899 534885 532871 528857 525849 520846 516853 514861 
      512871 513884 516897 517911 518918 520922 525922 529921 
      534914 535903 536899 
 0.50 396945 396939 394934 391927 387921 380919 368916 359917 
      355922 354926 354932 357942 360949 365955 373964 376971 
      379978 383985 389989 393982 395975 396956 396945 
 0.50 314826 314822 312819 307817 297813 288809 278807 269807 
      267808 267810 270814 278817 288823 296827 300831 303837 
      307839 310837 314826 
 0.50 309945 307942 306941 305943 305946 307947 309945 
 0.50 281068 280068 277067 275067 272067 269067 268065 266064 
      264063 263062 261062 260063 261064 262066 264066 266067 
      268069 269069 272070 275070 277070 280069 281068 
 1.00 391953 391945 389938 387935 383935 377935 374931 367926 
      364925 361927 361934 363940 367948 373957 378963 381969 
      385973 388973 390970 391964 391957 391953 
 1.50 389953 389950 388946 387943 384947 384951 382954 380952 
      379951 376950 373951 373953 374954 375956 377959 378959 
      380963 381964 383966 384967 387966 387965 387961 388957 
      388956 389953  
 
l$$