####018001546####
FXUS64 KMOB 151820 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009

UPDATE...AS WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...FORECASTERS HAVE SEEN A DECREASE AND EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TO THE WET WEATHER. VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS CLOUDS
THINNING AND DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUS...EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE TAKES INTO ACCOUNT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. FORECASTERS HAVE ALSO MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES GIVEN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. /10

.AVIATION [18Z ISSUANCE]...IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME
THROUGH 21Z WITH THINNING AND A DECREASE IN OPAQUENESS AFT 21Z.
SCATTERED -SHRA COULD LOWER VSBY BRIEFLY TO MVFR RANGE THROUGH MID
AFTN SE OF INTERSTATE 65. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFT 00Z. /10


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      60  39  62  39 /  10  05  05  05 
PENSACOLA   61  40  64  41 /  20  05  05  00 
DESTIN      62  45  64  43 /  30  05  05  00 
EVERGREEN   60  36  62  32 /  10  05  05  00 
WAYNESBORO  62  35  59  32 /  05  05  05  00 
CAMDEN      61  36  59  32 /  05  05  00  00 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM MONDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA. 

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





####018002429####
FXUS66 KHNX 151823
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1023 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2009


.DISCUSSION...THE VIGOROUS PACIFC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY IMPACT INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
BAND IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST AND CURRENTLY CLIPPING THE
CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH SOME MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
WINDS ARE ALSO INCREASING AND THE WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK AS
THE INCREASING WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY
TODAY. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED WELL ABOVE CLIMO IN THE VALLEY OUTSIDE OF RAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTREME SOUTH END WHERE DOWNSLOPING WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA WARMING. 

AS THE LOW MOVES IN CLOSER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND
WARNING CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED TO BE MET IN THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS BELOW THE GRAPEVINE IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW. 
THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THERE IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MODELS
SUGGEST WINDS MAY EVEN BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WITH PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 90 MPH. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM THE INCREASED UPSLOPE FLOW ALSO MAKE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHER THAN SOME MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO REMOVE INTRA-SITE CONSISTENCY
ISSUES...AND A SLIGHT BUMP IN WINDSPEEDS...NO CHANGES FOR THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO 
CIGS AND VSBYS IN RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF FRESNO 
COUNTY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF 
KINGS CANYON. AFTER 00Z MONDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME 
MORE WIDESPREAD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KERN COUNTY 
DESERT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND AT THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY 
LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR 
CAZ095>097.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM PST MONDAY FOR 
CAZ092-095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ089-091.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JEB
AVN/FW...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD




####018004971####
FXUS61 KRLX 151823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY 
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A STRONG 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z...COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SRN KY.
COULD STILL NOT RULE OUT A COATING OF SNOW OVER OUR 2 VA COUNTIES 
THIS EVENING...FROM THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  
THOUGH...STILL APPEARS THE HIGHER POPS AND MORE ACCUMULATION REMAINS 
FURTHER SE...SAY TOWARD THE NEW RIVER HEADWATERS

ONCE UPPER AIR FEATURE MOVES E...THE 850 MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE 
COLDER 850 NW FLOW.  SO AFTER SOME THINNING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTH OF THE SRN WAVE...THINKING THOSE 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND CREEP S.

SINCE THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF REMAIN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH 
MONDAY...THINK FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON 
MONDAY...DESPITE THE THIN MOISTURE LAYER.  HAVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO 
DISSOLVE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME W.

THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND PRESIDENTS DAY LOOK 
GOOD.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SNOWSHOE OF 13 
DEGS ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE CLOUDS...COULD NOT GO AS LOW AS 
MUCH OF THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 
ON MONDAY.    
 
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUDS AND ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DISSIPATE 
ON MONDAY. MAV MOS HIGHS FOR MONDAY LOOK TOO WARM...SO STAYED CLOSER 
TO FWC GUIDANCE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. 
WITH GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS...WENT BELOW ALL GUIDANCE. 
TEMPERATURES MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW 
DEVELOPS. MET MOS HIGHS TUESDAY LOOK WAY TOO COOL BASED ON 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES...SO STAYED CLOSER TO MAV MOS. 

WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. WENT 
WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR THIS PERIOD. SOME 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN 
THE DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO GFS THRU WED NIGHT...THEN CLOSER TO ECMWF BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF 
PCPN EARLY WED WITH A WARM FRONT WITH MARKED TEMPERATURE 
DIFFERENCES. 

HAVE CODED CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT THRU 
WED...INCREASING LIKELY POPS AT BOTH SIDES OF THE OH RIVER THRU WED. 
THEN...WIDESPREAD LIKELY POPS WERE CODED WITH THE COLD FRONT 
EXPECTED TO PASS THRU WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PERHAPS...AS 
TIME SHRINKS...CATEGORICAL POPS COULD BE INSERTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION 
THRU TUE NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 
WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS FLOW AT H850 PER GFS MODEL...TEMPS SHOULD BE 
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP LIQUID PCPN THRU WED NIGHT. THE COLD AIR RUSHES 
IN OVERNIGHT WED...GRADUALLY CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST 
ON THURSDAY....MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. 

PCPN LINGERS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...BEFORE 
ENDING LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. 

USED A MIX OF HPC AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

MODELS ARE BRINGING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE 
CODED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BUT WILL BE INTERESTING HOW THIS SYSTEM 
EVOLVE AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HARD TO FIGURE HOW MUCH THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OH AND NRN WV WILL 
DISSIPATE TOWARD DARK THIS EVENING...AS MID DECK INCREASES OVER ERN 
KY AND SRN WV FROM THE WEST.  HAVE CRW AND BKW SCATTERING OUT THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH THEIR 3 TO 5 THSD FT DESK...AS THOSE MID CLOUDS 
THICKEN.  

THINKING THE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MAINLY STAY S OF BKW 00Z TO 06Z.

IN WAKE OF THE FAST MOVING UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE THAT STREAKS E... 
HAVE MOISTURE AT 2 TO 4 THSD FT INCREASING AGAIN 03Z-09Z MONDAY IN 
THE COLDER NW LOW LEVEL FLOW. SO HAVE STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS SINKING 
S AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 3 THSD FT 12Z-18Z MONDAY.  VSBY 
AROUND 5 MILES IN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY CKB-CRW ON 
E TOWARD EKN AND BKW.  

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  IFR MAY LINGER
OVER WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB