AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
949 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND MOVED SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. SATELLITE              
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS WERE SHOWING SOME CI DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM             
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND GO WITH                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO               
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE FOG                
FORMATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR              
FOG...WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND CROSS OVER TEMPS BEING                
REACHED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SLOWLY ADVECTING            
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT AS DAYTIME MIXING ENDS DEW POINTS IN THIS           
AREA WILL LIKELY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE                
ALREADY BEEN SENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT THE                
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN MIDLEVELS AND IS EVEN STRONGER            
THERE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT               
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DAY TIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOW HIGH THEY            
WILL GO. WENT PRETTY MUCH WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS FOR MAX               
TEMPERATURES...GOING WARMER THAN MAV MOS ACROSS THE BOARD. AS THE               
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THINGS SHOULD BECOME VERY DRY ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT...DECREASED SKY COVER FORECAST THROUGH              
THE TUESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS BOTH SHOWING A                
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM 900 HPA ON UP. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED            
CUMULUS CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW              
DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES...AS HIGH HUMIDITY WILL             
COMBINES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL                  
BECOME QUITE HOT AND MUGGY INTO MIDWEEK.                                        
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS OR UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS FORECAST              
TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THE NEXT SEVERAL                  
DAYS...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THINGS DRY FOR THE ENTIRE                  
FORECAST. WINDS WERE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND                 
LATEST MODEL DATA...TO BETTER FIT CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN. WENT             
WITH COMBINATION OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR EASTWARD                     
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AT THE               
SURFACE...CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO             
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND AREAS NEAR                
RIVERS AND LAKES. WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT            
THIS. ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MCV EVIDENT OVER NCNTRL TN/SCNTRL KY ON SAT AND MOVING SE INTO ECNTRL           
TN. THIS MAY BE ENUF SPARK TO IGNITE ISO TSRA/SHRA. OTHER FEATURE OF            
NOTE IS S/WV EXITING ERN KY AND TAKING REMNANTS OF THIS AM SHRA                 
ACTIVITY WITH IT. WITH HIGH RH...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN THIS AFTN WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING. ALREADY SIGNS OF THAT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA. WILL             
KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT CHC POP THRU EARLY AFTN. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK            
AND WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ONLY A DEG OR SO ABOVE YESTERDAY/S              
HIGHS. UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING WORDING. REST OK.                    
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST                
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE           
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF JOHNSON COUNTY RECEIVED CLOSE TO THREE            
INCHES OF RAIN. ONLY ONE FLASH FLOOD REPORT WAS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT.            
IT WAS FROM PIKE COUNTY...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME             
FLASH FLOOD REPORTS COME THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TAPERING           
OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS            
AFTERNOON AS THE AIR IS STILL PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AIR                    
CONDITIONING AND FAN SALES SHOULD BE QUITE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEK AS            
THE FURNACE GETS CRANKED UP AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH STARTS MOVING INTO           
THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE WEEK IS OVER...A RECORD HIGH OR TWO COULD             
BE TIED OR BROKEN.                                                              
1008 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF              
THESE STORMS. 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1.4 TO 2.1 INCHES...WITH 3           
HR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.9 TO 3.2 OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL                 
LIKELY EXCEED SOME OF THESE VALUES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. CONCERNED                
ABOUT TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD                   
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. UPR TROF AND VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING             
EAST ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION IN THE           
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER UP MOST AREAS TONIGHT. TAPERED             
POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WENT CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY             
IN THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE SUNSET...BUT RUC            
IS SHOWING POSITIVE CAPES REMAINING OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE RUC CAPES ARE            
A LITTLE TOO HIGH THOUGH. MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN             
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS. ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS IN           
THE GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WJM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT THE                
PLAINS. THIS RIDGE IS ALSO EVIDENT IN MIDLEVELS AND IS EVEN STRONGER            
THERE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT               
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE DAY TIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AND HOW HIGH THEY            
WILL GO. WENT PRETTY MUCH WITH A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS FOR MAX               
TEMPERATURES...GOING WARMER THAN MAV MOS ACROSS THE BOARD. AS THE               
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD...THINGS SHOULD BECOME VERY DRY ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA...AS A RESULT...DECREASED SKY COVER FORECAST THROUGH              
THE TUESDAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS BOTH SHOWING A                
LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR FROM 900 HPA ON UP. OTHER THAN A FEW SCATTERED            
CUMULUS CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW              
DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES...AS HIGH HUMIDITY WILL             
COMBINES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONS WILL                  
BECOME QUITE HOT AND MUGGY INTO MIDWEEK.                                        
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS OR UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEMS FORECAST              
TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THE NEXT SEVERAL                  
DAYS...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THINGS DRY FOR THE ENTIRE                  
FORECAST. WINDS WERE MODIFIED SOMEWHAT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND                 
LATEST MODEL DATA...TO BETTER FIT CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN. WENT             
WITH COMBINATION OF GFS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR EASTWARD                     
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE. WITH MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AT THE               
SURFACE...CALM WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO             
FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND AREAS NEAR                
RIVERS AND LAKES. WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT            
THIS. ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MCV EVIDENT OVER NCNTRL TN/SCNTRL KY ON SAT AND MOVING SE INTO ECNTRL           
TN. THIS MAY BE ENUF SPARK TO IGNITE ISO TSRA/SHRA. OTHER FEATURE OF            
NOTE IS S/WV EXITING ERN KY AND TAKING REMNANTS OF THIS AM SHRA                 
ACTIVITY WITH IT. WITH HIGH RH...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN THIS AFTN WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING. ALREADY SIGNS OF THAT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA. WILL             
KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT CHC POP THRU EARLY AFTN. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK            
AND WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ONLY A DEG OR SO ABOVE YESTERDAY/S              
HIGHS. UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING WORDING. REST OK.                    
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST                
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE           
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF JOHNSON COUNTY RECEIVED CLOSE TO THREE            
INCHES OF RAIN. ONLY ONE FLASH FLOOD REPORT WAS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT.            
IT WAS FROM PIKE COUNTY...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME             
FLASH FLOOD REPORTS COME THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TAPERING           
OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS            
AFTERNOON AS THE AIR IS STILL PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AIR                    
CONDITIONING AND FAN SALES SHOULD BE QUITE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEK AS            
THE FURNACE GETS CRANKED UP AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH STARTS MOVING INTO           
THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE WEEK IS OVER...A RECORD HIGH OR TWO COULD             
BE TIED OR BROKEN.                                                              
1008 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF              
THESE STORMS. 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1.4 TO 2.1 INCHES...WITH 3           
HR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.9 TO 3.2 OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL                 
LIKELY EXCEED SOME OF THESE VALUES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. CONCERNED                
ABOUT TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD                   
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. UPR TROF AND VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING             
EAST ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION IN THE           
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER UP MOST AREAS TONIGHT. TAPERED             
POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WENT CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY             
IN THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE SUNSET...BUT RUC            
IS SHOWING POSITIVE CAPES REMAINING OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE RUC CAPES ARE            
A LITTLE TOO HIGH THOUGH. MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN             
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS. ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS IN           
THE GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RICHEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1103 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
MCV EVIDENT OVER NCNTRL TN/SCNTRL KY ON SAT AND MOVING SE INTO ECNTRL           
TN. THIS MAY BE ENUF SPARK TO IGNITE ISO TSRA/SHRA. OTHER FEATURE OF            
NOTE IS S/WV EXITING ERN KY AND TAKING REMNANTS OF THIS AM SHRA                 
ACTIVITY WITH IT. WITH HIGH RH...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN THIS AFTN WITH            
DAYTIME HEATING. ALREADY SIGNS OF THAT JUST NORTH OF OUR CWFA. WILL             
KEEP MENTION OF SLGHT CHC POP THRU EARLY AFTN. TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK            
AND WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...ONLY A DEG OR SO ABOVE YESTERDAY/S              
HIGHS. UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING WORDING. REST OK.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST                
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE           
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF JOHNSON COUNTY RECEIVED CLOSE TO THREE            
INCHES OF RAIN. ONLY ONE FLASH FLOOD REPORT WAS RECEIVED LAST NIGHT.            
IT WAS FROM PIKE COUNTY...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME             
FLASH FLOOD REPORTS COME THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE TAPERING           
OFF THIS MORNING AND THEN THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS            
AFTERNOON AS THE AIR IS STILL PRETTY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AIR                    
CONDITIONING AND FAN SALES SHOULD BE QUITE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEK AS            
THE FURNACE GETS CRANKED UP AS A STRONG UPPER HIGH STARTS MOVING INTO           
THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE WEEK IS OVER...A RECORD HIGH OR TWO COULD             
BE TIED OR BROKEN.                                                              
1008 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006                                                     
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF              
THESE STORMS. 1 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 1.4 TO 2.1 INCHES...WITH 3           
HR AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.9 TO 3.2 OVER THE AREA. RAINFALL WILL                 
LIKELY EXCEED SOME OF THESE VALUES IN LOCALIZED AREAS. CONCERNED                
ABOUT TRAINING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WOULD                   
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. UPR TROF AND VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING             
EAST ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION IN THE           
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER UP MOST AREAS TONIGHT. TAPERED             
POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WENT CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTH...TO LIKELY             
IN THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DECREASING SINCE SUNSET...BUT RUC            
IS SHOWING POSITIVE CAPES REMAINING OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE RUC CAPES ARE            
A LITTLE TOO HIGH THOUGH. MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN             
TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMP AND DEW POINT GRIDS. ALSO RAISED QPF AMOUNTS IN           
THE GRIDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006                                                      
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH            
A CONVECTION WASHED OUT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN              
INDIANA AND THEN SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY            
AND ELSEWHERE THROUGH KENTUCKY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPROUTED             
UP...FED AT THE SFC BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND                      
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE STATE. ADDING TO THE                
POTENCY IS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS DYNAMIC SUPPORT.           
LAPS CAPES ARE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME.            
IN ADDITION...SPC HAS SURROUNDED OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WITH NEW                
WATCH BOXES. EXPECT STORMS TO ROLL INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE BY               
MID EVENING...WITH LOCALLY GENERATED AND LESS ORGANIZED ONES                    
AFFECTING THE AREA IN THE MEANTIME. SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL APPEAR              
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN THE            
HIGH PWS AND ANY TRAINING OF THE CELLS.                                         
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH 60 HOURS                
AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE RESOLVED THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE OHIO               
VALLEY TONIGHT AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.           
THIS FEATURE IS NOW DEPICTED AS MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE LATTER PART            
OF THE WEEKEND...AS ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
FORECAST PERIOD WILL ENTAIL A SPRAWLING RIDGE SPREADING EAST FROM THE           
PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY.           
THIS DOMINANT RIDGE WILL THEN PROCEED TO BAKE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY               
NEXT WEEK. TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR               
RELIEF IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...                
PERHAPS INFLUENCING A SFC FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...THOUGH...              
WILL STICK WITH THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF THE RIDGE HOLDING FIRM              
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES AN ACTIVE 12 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE UPPER           
TROUGH PASSES BY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS ACTIVE THIS EVENING.              
THEN SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME               
MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA SATURDAY.              
HIGH PWS WILL KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT             
THOUGH EXPECT ANY PROBLEMS WILL BE LOCALIZED SINCE THE RAINS OF                 
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE NOT PRIMED MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE                 
EXCEPTIONS OF A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND IN PIKE                
COUNTY. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH             
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS DRYING SPREADS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA           
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY            
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LESS ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES            
WILL STILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THANKS TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE            
REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL            
INTO THE 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70. BY THE END OF THE              
WEEK DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR WERE THEY ARE NOW             
SENDING HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES.                                          
FWC AND MAV MOS LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR TONIGHT...WITH                    
PERSISTENCE PERFERRED RATHER THAN THE WARM MET NUMBERS. LIKED THE MOS           
TEMPS FROM THE MET THE BEST FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. FOR SATURDAY                 
NIGHT...WENT WITH A MORE TYPICAL SPLIT BETWEEN RIDGE AND VALLEYS...A            
LITTLE MORE EXAGGERATED THAN THE MOS IMPLIES. THEN ON SUNDAY RAN THEM           
A TAD WARMER THAN SATURDAY/S HIGHS WITH DRY AIR AND PLENTY OF                   
SUNSHINE. THE MAV NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY SEEMED A DAY TOO QUICK FOR                 
HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S. WITH THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE             
MAV TONIGHT AND THEN JUST ABOVE THE MET IN MOST LOCATIONS ON                    
SATURDAY. KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIODS...EXCEPT            
FOR A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING FOR FAR                   
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.                                                             
IN THE IFPS/GFE GRIDS...FOLLOWED MY USUAL PROCEDURE TO POPULATE                 
DEWPOINTS AND WINDS FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE WINDS CAME             
IN A BIT HIGH...SO TOOK THEM DOWN SLIGHTLY WHILE ENHANCING THE LAPSE            
RATE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOONS. WITH THE DEWPOINTS...THE HIGH PW AIR IN           
PLACE ONCE AGAIN MADE THE NAM NUMBERS APPEAR REASONABLE. DID TAKE               
THEM DOWN A BIT EACH AFTERNOON FOR SOME MIX DOWN OF DRIER AIR FROM              
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ON. THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN                
GOOD SHAPE WITH MY MAIN CHANGES FOCUSED ON FINE TUNING POP AND SKY              
GRIDS TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUSTY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND POTENTIAL OF SHRA/TSRA THRU MON.               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A BROAD RIDGE COVERING                
BASICALLY THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE CENTER OVER THE SRN                
ROCKIES. VERY HOT AIRMASS HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD WITHIN THE RIDGE.              
12Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 20/27/29/33C AT KINL/KABR/KBIS/KUNR             
RESPECTIVELY. NE EXTENT OF THIS HOT THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO               
UPPER MI TONIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE E...              
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN...AND TEMPS                
HAVE SOARED INTO THE 90S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE KEWEENAW AND E OF            
KESC NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WIND HAS BEEN MUCH MORE WRLY AND STRONGER              
TODAY WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVER            
THE KEWEENAW. AS OF 20Z...THE HIGHEST OBSERVED TEMP IS 98F AT KIMT.             
NUMEROUS SITES ARE REPORTING 97. STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF HRS TO MAYBE            
REACH 100 AT A FEW SPOTS. SFC DWPTS HAVE ALSO CRASHED THRU THE 50S              
(AND EVEN INTO THE 40S AT A FEW SPOTS) THIS AFTN AS ANTICIPATED AND             
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS NOTED ON THE DIRECTLY             
UPSTREAM 12Z KINL SOUNDING. LOWEST DWPTS WERE IN THE MID 40S AT                 
WAKEFIELD AND WATERSMEET. A SMALL PATCH OF ACCAS DEVELOPED OVER                 
CNTRL MN EARLIER TODAY AND TURNED INTO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA NEAR KDLH.               
ONE LONE SHRA REMAINS S OF KHYR. ANOTHER ARC OF ACCAS IS NOTED OVER             
NRN MN WITH KDLH/KMVX RADARS PICKING UP ECHOES IN THIS CLOUD BAND.              
AT THE SFC...1007MB LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER NRN SD WITH TROF                  
EXTENDING ENE INTO NRN MN.                                                      
NAM/GFS SHOW WEAK SFC LOW LIFTING TO NEAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z              
SUN. IN THE PROCESS...WIND FIELDS HINT AT APPARENT WARM FRONT OR                
TROF DEVELOPING SE INTO UPPER MI THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NE AS              
850MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50KT. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND               
ARC OF ACCAS/RADAR ECHOES OVER NRN MN RAISE CONCERN THAT CONVECTION             
MAY FIRE OVER UPPER MI TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SINCE VERY STEEP                    
MIDLEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5C/KM WILL BE PRESENT.                
NAM/GFS DO SHOW A SWATH OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER             
UPPER MI TONIGHT...BUT 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP MORE ACROSS              
LAKE SUPERIOR. NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK CAPPED FOR THE MOST            
PART. AS IT IS...06Z GFS SOUNDING AT KCMX INDICATES A CAPE OF                   
1050J/KG WITH A WEAK CIN OF -26J/KG FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 750MB.              
NAM ONLY HAS CAPE OF 419J/KG WITH CIN OF -81J/KG. ONE CAN REPEAT                
THIS PROCESS AT MANY LEVELS USING BOTH MODELS AND GET A VARIETY OF              
RESULTS WITH ALL HAVING AT LEAST SOME CIN BASED ON A ROUGH LOOK AT              
THE SOUNDINGS. CIN IS MINIMAL THOUGH AT SOME LEVELS...AND CAN BE                
OVERCOME. BASED EXTRAPOLATION OF THE BAND OF ACCAS OVER NRN MN...               
WILL EXTEND SLIGHT CHC POPS A BIT FARTHER S TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF NRN            
UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHC OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER LAKE SUEPERIOR            
WHERE BETTER FORCING IS SUGGESTED. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP A            
CLOSE EYE ON DEVELOPMENTS UPSTREAM THAT MAY REQUIRE EXPANSION OF                
PCPN CHC OVER FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET AND 850MB               
THERMAL RIDGE (22-26C) SHIFTING ACROSS UPPER MI...IT WILL BE A VERY             
WARM NIGHT AS SFC WINDS REMAIN UP...ESPECIALLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE                 
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. CURRENT FCST HAS MINS IN GREAT SHAPE FROM             
AROUND 70 INTERIOR TO 80 ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE. LOCATIONS NEAR              
LAKE SUPERIOR THAT HAVE COOLED DUE TO LAKE BREEZE WILL SEE TEMPS                
SPIKE UP ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO AN OFFSHORE DIRECTION THIS EVENING.            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO UPPER MI SUN AND ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES.             
WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT/DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZES TO            
BECOME MORE DOMINANT IN THE AFTN. BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX                     
DEPARTS...TEMPS SHOULD SOAR IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING             
WARM START TO THE DAY. WARMING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN AREAS THAT            
EXPERIENCE DOWNSLOPING WITH A SW TO W WIND. MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMP             
FCST AS IT COULD REACH MID/UPPER 90S AT SOME PLACES ALONG                       
LAKESHORE (MARQUETTE/MUNISING FOR EXAMPLE) BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE            
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. TIMING DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE BREEZE WILL BE              
CRITICAL. AS IT IS...GOING FCST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION              
WITH HIGHS BASICALLY IN THE LOW/MID 90S MOST AREAS. NAM/GFS FCST                
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 100F SUN. SO CONVECTION            
LOOKS UNLIKELY SUN AFTER ANY MORNING SHRA/TSRA OVER LAKE                        
SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI END WITH DEPARTURE OF LOW-LEVEL JET.                      
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS ONLY DUE TO THE             
PRESENCE OF FRONT/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PROVIDE PERSISTENT                  
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.                                                          
SUN NIGHT/MON...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING              
FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA SUN EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER                         
LAKES/ONTARIO MON. REGIONAL CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS/NAM ARE IN EXCELLENT             
AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS ONTARIO MON WITH                     
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REACHING WRN UPPER MI MON MORNING. NAM                    
DEVELOPS CONVECTION SUN NIGHT...BUT THIS APPEARS PARTLY DUE TO A                
LEAD SHORTWAVE IT HAS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHER MODELS DO NOT             
SHOW THIS WAVE OR ARE MUCH WEAKER. IN ANY EVENT...WITH AN INCREASE              
IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE APPROACHING ONTARIO...WILL              
KEEP CHC POPS GOING FOR SUN NIGHT AND CARRY INTO MON AS COLD FRONT              
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED TO SCT AT BEST. WILL             
ADD MORE RESOLUTION IN GRIDS ON TIMING THE END OF THE PCPN CHC MON              
DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR W THIRD OF FCST AREA            
BY AFTN AND WILL END PCPN CHC THERE BY NOON. WILL THEN END OVER THE             
E LATE AFTN. TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS CUTTING HIGHS BACK A FEW                  
DEGREES OVER THE W ON MON. SHOULD STILL BE A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN              
THE UPPER 80S/LWR 90S IN MANY AREAS.                                            
TUE THRU SAT...OTHER THAN TIMING SHORTWAVES...ECWMF/UKMET/CANADIAN              
AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE OVERALL            
PATTERN. THE TREND IS FOR TROFFING TO BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER SE              
CANADA LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER               
WRN NAMERICA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO COOLER MORE TYPICAL SUMMER                     
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. DEGREE OF TROF               
AMPLIFICATION IS IN QUESTION AS GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MORE MODEST             
AMPLIFICATION THAN OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF RUNS. WILL TAKE THIS INTO              
ACCOUNT FOR LATE WEEK...BUT THE NUMBER OF VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODEL             
RUNS RECENTLY SHOWING AMPLIFICATION SUGGESTS COLD FRONT PASSING                 
MIDWEEK SHOULD MOVE A GOOD DISTANCE S OF UPPER MI. IN THE                       
MEANTIME...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SHORTWAVES MIDWEEK IS A                  
PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE IDEA OF SFC HIGH PRES PASSING E OF THE UPPER             
LAKES ON TUE IS STILL ON TRACK. SO...A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TUE.                 
WED/THU...00Z ECWMF/CANADIAN AND GFS ALREADY HAVE A COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHING WRN UPPER MI BY 00Z THU WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A                     
REINFORCING SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSING THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE                
ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLY SIMILAR TO GFS/ECMWF RUNS LOOKED             
AT YESTERDAY. UKMET IS MUCH SLOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURING                
LATE THU. PREVIOUS FCST HAD A SLOWER TYPE SOLUTION AND GIVEN THE                
UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING IN LATEST MODEL RUNS...WILL STAY ALONG THE                
LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FCST WHICH INDICATES A FROPA THU. AS FOR                  
PCPN...SHORTWAVE TIMING ISSUES SUGGEST MAINTAINING CHC POPS TUE                 
NIGHT THRU THU. INITIAL PCPN CHC TUE NIGHT/WED WOULD BE WITH WAA                
PATTERN. ALTHOUGH LESS AGGRESSIVE TROF AMPLIFICATION IS FAVORED LATE            
WEEK...STILL THINK COLD FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH S TO              
ALLOW FOR DRY/COOLER WEATHER FRI/SAT.                                           
THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS:                        
                 START                                                          
               OF RECORD    SUN     MON                                         
HOUGHTON ARPT    1887        95      98                                         
IRONWOOD         1901        92      94                                         
IRON MOUNTAIN    1899        96      96                                         
MARQUETTE NWS    1961        92      95                                         
MARQUETTE WWTP   1948        94      94                                         
MUNISING         1911        93      95                                         
NEWBERRY         1896        92      90                                         
STEPHENSON       1938        98      96                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1128 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS ALREADY TO INCREASE TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES            
OVER THE W HALF OF CWA. THIS RESULTS IN SOME PLACES REACHING 100                
DEGREES BY LATE AFTN. DEEP MIXING JUST BEGINNING AS SFC DEWPOINTS               
HAVE REMAINED AROUND 60 THUS FAR. HOWEVER...FULL INSOLATION WILL                
RESULT IN MIXING TO AROUND 750MB AS SEEN UPSTREAM IN DAKOTAS/MN YDY.            
MIXING TO THIS LEVELS OFF 12Z GRB SOUNDING YIELDS UPR 90S FOR MAX T.            
HOWEVER...EVEN WARMER AIR AT H8-H7 STREAMING IN THROUGH AFTN AND                
MIXING TO THESE H75 TEMPS MAKES 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE. ALREADY 87                
HERE AT NWS OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TWP AT NOT EVEN 1130 AM EDT. NOT                 
UNREASONABLE THAT ALL TIME RECORD HIGH AT NWS OFFICE HERE IN                    
NEGAUNEE TWP OF 99 (SET 3 TIMES - LAST TIME WAS JULY 28 1988) COULD             
BE TIED OR BROKEN. EVEN UPR 90S IS IN RECORD TERRITORY MANY PLACES              
OVR W HALF (SEE RECORDS AT THE END OF PREV DISCUSSION). ADDED RECORD            
WORDING TO ZFPMQT WHERE PREVIOUS RECORD TEMPS SHOULD BE TOPPLED. WNW            
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE GUSTY IN WAKE OF WEAK WAVE THAT PASSED OVR LK             
SUPERIOR THIS AM. GUSTS TO 30 MPH SEEN AT CMX THIS MORNING. THESE               
STRONGER WNW WINDS WILL ONLY AID IN FURTHER DOWNSLOPE WARMING AT                
L'ANSE AND BARAGA AND INTO MARQUETTE. WNW WINDS ALSO LEAD TO AN                 
INCREASE IN MAX TEMPS INTO LWR 90S OVR DELTA COUNTY. WINDS SLACKEN              
LATE AND THERE MAY BE SOME LK BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OVR NCNTRL AND NEAR            
LK MI.                                                                          
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F...EXPECT INCREASINGLY DRY               
LOWER LEVELS AS DEEPER MIXING GETS GOING. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY                 
LOWER TO AROUND 50F OVR INLAND W HALF BY MID-LATE AFTN. EVEN LOWER              
VALUES IN THE 40S ARE POSSIBLE OVR OVR SCNTRL AREAS WHERE LITTLE                
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED YDY. AFTER COORDINATING WITH FIRE WX COMMUNITY            
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT FIRE WX RISK IN HWOMQT.                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT)...                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE            
FOR TDAYS SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ALF             
IN ITS WAKE BACK TO THE PAC NW ON NRN FRINGE OF SPRAWLING RDG                   
CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. 120KT H3 JET MAX NOTED OVER SCNTRL               
CAN IN CORE OF THIS FAST FLOW. DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV                
PER 00Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW/MPX RAOB (PWAT THERE 0.51 INCH) HAS                  
INVADED THE UPR MS VALLEY/ UPR GRT LKS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS...AND            
SKIES MOCLR ALMOST EVERYWHERE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN AREA OF CLD             
AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SKIMMING THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER IN ADVANCE OF                
SHRTWV PASSING JUST S OF LK WINNIPEG. 00Z INL SDNG IS MORE MOIST                
(PWAT 0.99 INCH) AND NOT AS CAPPED AS THE MPX SDNG TO THE S.                    
HOWEVER...SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING AS ACTIVITY DRIFTING SE              
INTO DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FA AND INTO LARGER SCALE                
DNVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC/LLVL ACYC FLOW IN RIGHT              
EXIT OF JET IN SCNTRL CAN. OTRW...OTHER THAN SOME FOG AT ESC-ISQ-               
ERY...SKIES OVER THE FA ARE CLR...AND TEMPS FALLING THRU THE 60S AT             
MOST INLAND SPOTS AS A BIT OF A THERMAL TROF AT H85 (TEMPS IN THE               
UPR TEENS C) EVIDENT OVER THE FA AND GOOD RADIATIONAL LOSS                      
CONDITIONS WITH LGT WINDS UNDER WEAK SFC RDG AXIS IN PLACE. MUCH                
WARMER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH H85 TEMPS UP TO 26C AT             
BIS/GGW. HI TEMPS WENT AOA 100 AT A NUMBER OF SPOTS IN THE NRN                  
PLAINS ON FRI...AND 03Z TEMP AT PHP STILL 91.                                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE NMRS AND INCLUDE DISPOSITION OF             
SHRA NOW TRACKING ACRS THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER...INFLUX OF MUCH WARMER            
AIR TO THE W AND RELATED HEAT/FIRE WX CONCERNS...AND SHRA/TSRA CHCS             
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS MOVING WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALF OVER SRN CAN               
AND ACCOMPANYING FROPAS.                                                        
FOR TDAY...00Z RUC/NAM HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON LOCATION OF SHRTWV NR LK             
WINNIPEG AND SHOW THIS SYS AND ACCOMPANYING PATCH OF H7 RH TRACKING             
ACRS LK SUP LATE TNGT. IF ACCOMPANYING ISOLD SHRA/TSRA STILL HOLDING            
TOGETHER AT FCST ISSUANCE...WL INCLUDE MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER            
LK SUP EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE SHRTWV PULLS TO THE E BY LATE MRNG.               
OTRW...NAM/GFS/UKMET SHOW H85 TEMPS RISING TO 24C OVER THE W/21C                
OVER THE E BY 00Z SUN AS UPR RDG CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES                  
EXPANDS TO THE NE. MIXING TO H7 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS TEMPS              
RISING INTO THE MID/UPR 90S. DEEP MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR SHOWN ON               
THE MPX SDNG/ GFS AND NAM FCST SDNGS WOULD ALSO YIELD DWPTS FALLING             
INTO THE 40S...SO WL CONTINUE TREND OF LAST COUPLE SHIFTS TO FCST               
DWPTS BLO MOS GUIDANCE AS DWPTS UPSTREAM YDAY AFTN MIXED OUT INTO               
THE 40S/50S IN THE LATER AFTN. ONE OTHER IMPACT OF SHRTWV TRACKING              
ACRS LK SUP THIS MRNG WL BE TO INTRODUCE A BIT STRONGER WNW LLVL                
FLOW INTO THE AREA...WHICH WL LIMIT LK MODERATION OVER THE NCNTRL               
ZNS FM THE KEWEENAW-MQT AND EVEN A BIT MORE SO ON LK MI (AND GIVE               
TEMPS A CHC TO RISE HIER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AT LEAST UNTIL LATER IN             
THE AFTN). ALTHOUGH PRES GRADIENT STILL IS FCST TO WEAKEN DURING THE            
AFTN WITH WARM FNT APPEARING TO SET UP NEAR THE WI BORDER TO THE E              
OF LO PRES IN THE NRN PLAINS...H925-85 WINDS 15Z-18Z FCST IN THE                
25-30KT RANGE AVBL TO MIX OUT (00Z INL SDNG SHOWS WNW WIND 20-25 KT             
AT H925-85). WITH HI TEMPS/LO DWPT RESULTING IN RH FALLING AOB 25               
PCT OVER THE INTERIOR WCNTRL AWAY FM COOLING/MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM              
OF LK MI...CRITICAL FIRE WX PARAMETERS WL LIKELY BE MET.                        
FORTUNATELY...RA FELL AT MOST PLACES YDAY...SO GROUND IS NOT AS DRY             
AS BEFORE. WL COORDINATE WITH FWF FOCAL POINTS TO DETERMINE NEED FOR            
ANY STATEMENTS THIS MRNG.                                                       
FOR TNGT...GFS/UKMET/NAM APPEAR TO PUSH WARM FNT INTO NCNTRL LK SUP             
AND STALL THIS BNDRY OUT THERE AS NAM INCREASES H85 W WIND UP TO                
50KT OVER THE FA. WITH STRG WLY FLOW...TEMPS WL BE HARD PRESSED TO              
FALL TOO QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY ALG LK SUP WHERE WSW FLOW DOWNSLOPES.             
GOING FCST AOA MOS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE THIS SITUATION HANDLED              
WELL. SINCE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AS WELL...LOOK FOR WEAK RH                    
RECOVERY OVERNGT AND AN AGGRAVATION OF FIRE WX CONCERNS. GFS/UKMET              
NOT AS STRG WITH THIS LLJ...THEY GO TO 40KT. HARD TO FIND CULPRIT               
SHRTWV UPSTREAM ON WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG... BUT GUIDANCE DOES SHOW               
SOME RATHER SHARP H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC NEAR THIS             
BNDRY OVERNGT...WITH GFS SHOWING SSI FALLING TO -4C WITH STEEP MID              
LVL LAPSE RATES ABV H85 THERMAL RDG. HOWEVER...FCST SDNGS ARE VERY              
DRY WITH ADVCTN OF UPSTREAM AIR IN THE NRN PLAINS ..AND AREA APPEARS            
TO REMAIN IN UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF UPR JET OVER CNTRL CAN/NW                    
ONTARIO. LIFTING FM H775 ON GFS FCST SDNG FOR CMX AT 06Z YIELDS CAPE            
FM 1050-1100 J/KG WITH CIN -65 J/KG. NAM IS A BIT MORE FVRBL WHEN               
LIFTING FM H725 WITH CAPE 1500 J/KG AND CIN -40 J/KG. SINCE UKMET               
SHOWS A STRIPE OF HIER MID LVL RH OVER CNTRL LK SUP...HAVE OPTED TO             
UP POPS A BIT OVER ISLE ROYALE/NRN LK SUP CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT/               
EDGE OF CAP N OF CMX WHERE CIN WOULD BE MINIMIZED IN PRESENCE OF                
FRONTOGENESIS. NAM QPF APPEARS TO BE THE BEST MODEL FOR LOCATION OF             
FCST HIER 30 POPS. OTRW...SCHC POPS OVER THE NRN LAND FA APPEAR                 
RSNBL.                                                                          
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS IDEA WEAK FNT WL            
SAG INTO UPR MI AND STALL ON SUN. WITH WEAKER PRES GRADIENT/WINDS...            
LK BREEZES SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE THAN ON SAT. WHAT THIS MEANS IS A              
BIT LOWER TEMPS NR LK SUP AS GFS SHOWS SFC-H925 FLOW TURNING LGT N              
IN THE AFTN. BUT GFS DELAYS WSHFT UNTIL THE AFTN...SO DAYTIME TEMPS             
SHOULD STILL SPIKE UP QUICKLY IN THE MRNG ESPECIALLY AFTER WARM                 
OVERNGT. IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYS SUN MRNG...THERE APPEARS TO BE LTL            
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CNVCTN ALG STALLED FNT/LK BREEZE BNDRYS...SO WL             
RETAIN GOING SCHC POPS WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON GFS FCST SDNGS ARND             
105 UNDER H8-85 CAPPING EVEN THOUGH LLVLS ARE FCST TO BE MORE MOIST             
THAN ON SAT. MIXING TO H8 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS INDICATES HI TEMPS              
WL REACH THE MID/UPR 90S AGAIN INLAND FM LK MODERATION. MORE WLY                
FLOW ACRS THE SRN ZNS TO THE S OF STALLING BNDRY SHOULD LIMIT LK MI             
MODERATION MORE SO ON SUN THAN ON SAT.                                          
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW A LO PRES CENTER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SUN              
EVNG OVER NRN MN IN RRQ OF UPR JET MOVING OVER JAMES BAY AND IN                 
ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DROPPING ESE THRU CNTRL CAN. THESE MODELS TRACK               
SFC LO ACRS ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT PUSHING            
INTO THE WRN ZNS LATE AT NGT. GFS QPF NEAR ZERO...WHILE UKMET QPF               
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FNT PUSHES INTO CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND                 
BETTER QVECTOR CNVGC PASSES FARTHER N CLOSER SHRTWV/UPR JET. NAM/               
CNDN ON THE OTHER HAND DVLP A WEAKER SFC LO FARTHER S CLOSER TO                 
STALLED BNDRY OVER UPR MI AND THUS GENERATE MORE QPF OVER THE FA                
WITH WAD OVER THIS BNDRY. NAM FCST SDNG FOR CMX AT 09Z MON SHOWS                
ELEVATED CAPE ARND 1800 J/KG WITH LTL CIN WHEN LIFTING FM H9. NCEP              
GUIDANCE SUGS A BLEND OF THESE SCENARIOS...SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO            
AT LEAST 30 OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SCNTRL WHERE NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW               
MORE CAPPING AND WAD PCPN WOULD BE LESS LIKELY S OF EXPECTED FNTL               
POSITION. NAM WOULD SUG LOWER WIND SPEEDS THAN GFS SCENARIO AND                 
LOWER TMINS...BUT WL LEAVE GOING FCST ALONE TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY              
IN PREFERRED SOLN. TENDED TO DIMINISH POPS FASTER ON MON AS ALL 00Z             
GUIDANCE SHOW SFC FNT TO THE S BY 00Z TUE. CUT FCST HI TEMPS A BIT              
AS WELL ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NW TO REFLECT THIS TREND. LATER SHIFTS              
MAY HAVE TO SPEED UP ENDING OF POPS EVEN MORE IF THESE TRENDS                   
CONTINUE.                                                                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME RECORD HIGHS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS:                      
                 START                                                          
               OF RECORD   TODAY    SUN     MON                                 
HOUGHTON ARPT    1887        96      95      98                                 
IRONWOOD         1901        94      92      94                                 
IRON MOUNTAIN    1899        95      96      96                                 
MARQUETTE NWS    1961        95      92      95                                 
MARQUETTE WWTP   1948        94      94      94                                 
MUNISING         1911        91      93      95                                 
NEWBERRY         1896        95      92      90                                 
STEPHENSON       1938        92      98      96                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...KC                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
946 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TOOK OUT CHC OF TSTMS FOR REST OF THE NIGHT AS CAP IS HANGING ON                
TIGHT WITH 7H TEMPS 12-15C ACCORING TO 11Z UPPER AIR RUN.                       
ALSO UPPED MINS FOR THE NIGHT AND TWEAKED THE WINDS. WITH DEWPTS                
RANGING IN THE MID 60S TO 70-ISH, HAD TO BRING UP OUR FCST MINS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 357 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY                   
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS                          
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELY SOUTHWEST TO BEMIDJI. THE                   
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24                        
HOURS...AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                               
MANY OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS INCLUDING THE                              
NAM...GFS...RUC AND UKMET ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS NRN                
MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE NAM                   
SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRECIPITATION                   
TRENDS...WHICH ARE MORE INLINE WITH THE RUC AS WELL. THEREFORE WILL             
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST.                              
THE NAM SHOWS THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER                 
NRN MN WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE TWIN              
PORTS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH A STRONGER CAP FARTHER                         
SOUTH...IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD                      
TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER NWRN WI LATE TONIGHT.                   
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS COHERENT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE                   
FRONT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE OVERNIGHT                  
CONVECTION AND STRONGER CAP...THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON                   
SUNDAY WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING                 
DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP SHOULD ERODE                 
SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD                  
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA.                 
WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 0-3KM              
SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE                 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER THE                   
ATTM...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS                 
LOW BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP.                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...BORDERLINE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS PERSIST                   
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING                  
GOING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING AS SCHEDULED...DUE TO THE DROUGHT                 
CONDITIONS...EXTREME HEAT...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CLC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
357 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY                  
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA THIS                          
AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM NEAR ELY SOUTHWEST TO BEMIDJI. THE                   
FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24                        
HOURS...AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                               
MANY OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS INCLUDING THE                              
NAM...GFS...RUC AND UKMET ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT                     
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS NRN                
MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE NAM                   
SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRECIPITATION                   
TRENDS...WHICH ARE MORE INLINE WITH THE RUC AS WELL. THEREFORE WILL             
FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE NAM SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST.                              
THE NAM SHOWS THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER                 
NRN MN WILL PROPAGATE ESEWD OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY REACHING THE TWIN              
PORTS AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH A STRONGER CAP FARTHER                         
SOUTH...IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD                      
TOGETHER AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER NWRN WI LATE TONIGHT.                   
THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS COHERENT BY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THE                   
FRONT SHOULD STILL BE NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY FARTHER SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE OVERNIGHT                  
CONVECTION AND STRONGER CAP...THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON                   
SUNDAY WILL BE LOW. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING                 
DEW POINTS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP SHOULD ERODE                 
SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD                  
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY...CONTINUING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR CWA.                 
WITH CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG...ALONG WITH 0-3KM              
SRH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE                 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER THE                   
ATTM...THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS                 
LOW BECAUSE OF THE STRONG CAP.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...BORDERLINE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS PERSIST                  
ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE WARNING                  
GOING UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING AS SCHEDULED...DUE TO THE DROUGHT                 
CONDITIONS...EXTREME HEAT...LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS.                      
&&                                                                              
.POINT FORECAST TEMPS/POPS...                                                   
DLH  65  91  64  85 /  20  20  30  10                                           
INL  63  91  61  82 /  30  20  20  10                                           
BRD  69  94  66  87 /  20  20  20  10                                           
HYR  68  95  65  88 /  20  20  30  20                                           
ASX  66  92  66  86 /  20  20  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR                           
     CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-                    
     KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN                         
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-                
     SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-                     
     SOUTHERN ITASCA-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE.                                   
WI...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ASHLAND-                  
     BAYFIELD-BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-PRICE-SAWYER-WASHBURN.                       
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BERDES                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EXAMINING ATMOSPHERIC AND MOISTURE VARIABLES FOR THE REGION THIS                
MORNING SUGGESTS DECENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR AT THE            
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS              
EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS A SMALL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE               
DROPPING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THAT WILL AID IN LIFT WHILE              
INDUCING CONVERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ROUGHLY IN THE                    
VICINITY OF (AND PARALLEL TO) THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 500 MB TEMPS REMAIN            
VERY WARM (-4 TO -5 C)...BUT LITTLE PROHIBITIVE THERMAL CAPPING WAS             
OBSERVED ON THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING (WHICH HAD ~2.1 INCH OF PW AS                  
WELL). WARM TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL (AND             
ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SEVERE STORM RISK)...BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL              
GET GOING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT TO             
ACTIVITY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.            
OTHERWISE...HAD TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND TEMP FIELDS AS THE CU                 
FIELD HAS BEEN SLOW TO EXPAND THIS MORNING AND TEMPS QUICK TO RISE.             
BUMPED HIGHS UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EVERYWHERE...EVEN AS I ROSE            
POPS CONCURRENTLY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE BUMPING UP AROUND 105 FROM              
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS. MAY HAVE TO UPDATE FOR A                
HEAT ADVISORY BEFORE THIS AFTERNOON IS OUT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...DRINK             
PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF WORKING OUTSIDE AND DO NOT OVER-EXERT YOURSELF.             
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS OUT. /BB/                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORTER TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY....ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL            
BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER HOT AND            
HUMID DAY IS ON TAP. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WILL                 
COMBINE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX              
VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 AGAIN. A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE IN                  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY HELP PRODUCE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO             
LIMIT FULL HEATING POTENTIAL THOUGH. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC               
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH            
THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING BACK INTO THE MID                     
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH             
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA...THE WEAKENING END OF            
THIS TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTH INTO OUR CWA TODAY. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE            
IS EXPECTED TO HELP RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER            
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF               
OUR CWA. WITH PWS AROUND TWO INCHES AND LIGHT WIND PROFILES...VERY              
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE                   
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF                  
DAYTIME HEATING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN              
MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. A LITTLE DRIER AIR WITH PWS BELOW ONE AND A HALF            
INCHES WILL FILTER INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL LIMIT                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THERE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH WITH THE             
GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. WITH LITTLE CLOUD              
COVER IN THE NORTH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S             
AGAIN. MIXING SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER              
60S RESULTING IN LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES THAN THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT              
INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB BETWEEN 100 AND 105 IN THE DELTA AROUND NOON             
SUNDAY THOUGH BEFORE THE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. /22/                             
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND             
ENSEMBLES WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER               
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND                 
MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER                
RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A            
DEEPER LAYER OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA                
WITH PWATS OF 1.7 TO 2.3 INCHES AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING WEAKENS.                   
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A RESIDUAL E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTING            
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN BACK IT UP NORTHWARD             
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  BY THURSDAY THROUGH                        
FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER             
THE CAROLINAS RESULTING IN CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY                  
NIGHTS WITH SEASONABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN...THE BEST CHANCES BEING IN             
THE SRN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE A              
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE AS WE VENTURE INTO THE WORK WEEK...WHICH IS                  
TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                  
SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX TEMPS AND POP GUIDANCE.               
ON THIS 00Z RUN THE MEX POPS WERE A LITTLE DRYER...MAINLY IN                    
THE NORTH HALF SINCE THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING MEAN                
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR THE WORK WEEK. /17/                                      
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22                                                         
LONG TERM: 17                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1130 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TAFTN - SUN NIGHT)...                                              
SFC AND UPR TROF CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE AREA WITH ISENT LIFT AND             
BAND OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH                 
TIMING A LET UP OF ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPLY WEST OF I-81.            
SATL LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS THINNING BEHIND THIS INITIAL UPR WAVE WHICH              
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. BUF SOUNDING WAS            
MILD...BUT NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC...SO DO NOT EXPECT A GREAT AMOUNT             
OF CAPE TODAY. BUFKIT RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 500              
J/KG. A SECONDARY TROF MOVING INTO WRN NY WILL PROBABLY REACT WITH              
THE INCRG INSTABILITY FOR A REKINDLING OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA                   
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH RIDGING                  
TONIGHT SHOULD SQUELCH ALL ACTIVITY...THEN THE HEAT ARRIVES. -JAB               
CENTRAL US RIDGE PUSHES HOT AIRMASS TOWARD NY AND PA ON SUNDAY. THIS            
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE              
WORK WEEK. TEMPS AROUND 90 LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET FOR MOST ON SUNDAY,             
WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OVER FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL SO TIER. WE               
MAY MAKE A RUN AT MID 90S ON MONDAY.                                            
RE-ISSUED SPS TO HILIGHT THE COMING HOT WEATHER.  DJP                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY - FRIDAY)...                                                 
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. ZONAL FLOW WITH AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND             
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHC POPS. BEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
ARE TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HOT AND             
HUMID AIRMASS OVER THE CWA MONDAY DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO GET TO             
FAR TO THE SE BEFORE HEAT RETURNS. ON FRIDAY A WEAK UL TROF SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH TRIGGER FOR MORE PRECIP.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (15/12Z TO 16/12Z)...                                                 
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH TS AT START AS N TO S LINE OF CONVECTION                
MOVES EAST THROUGH TAF SITES. BEHIND IT SOME IMPROVEMENT WITH MVFR              
CIGS AND VSBYS WITH MORE SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE               
EARLY AFTN. SE WINDS AHEAD OF PRECIP SHIFTING TO SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS.             
BEHIND LAST SFC TROF THIS AFTN WINDS WILL GO NW. TROF GOES BY AND               
SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AT 1415Z...AN H500 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS NRN            
-CNTRL NY.  THIS TROUGH TRIGGERED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS            
WITH THE BEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BORDER.  THE LATEST             
40KM RUC HAS THE TROUGH AXIS TO KSYR-KBGM-KLNS. THE LATEST LOCAL AND            
REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS HAVE SCT SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE WRN PORTION OF            
THE FCST AREA.  WE HAVE RETOOLED THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH 00Z.              
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT TSRAS EVEN THOUGH THE CG LTG HAS DIMINISHED. THE            
12Z ALY SOUNDING SHOWS APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY OF 1219 J/KG.  THERE             
IS A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL CAP AT 825 MB.  THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE            
OF 1.28" IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER COMPARED TH KBUF 12Z SOUNDING OF                 
1.85" WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PASSING AT LAUNCHTIME.               
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS DEPARTING INTO QUEBEC...THEREFORE               
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION DOESNT SEEM                    
PLAUSIBLE THIS PM.  WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN DURING THE MID-LATE PM.  WE RAISED TEMPS A FEW             
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  H500 THERMAL RIDGE            
BUILDS IN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT FOR SULTRY DAYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 325 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO                
EAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY                   
WESTWARD. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK                
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE HOT AND HUMID            
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE             
REGION WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN             
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP                    
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO              
SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                  
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
SUMMER HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT                        
TERM...EXCEPT FOR TODAY. A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPR LVL TROF WILL               
PASS THRU ERN NY/WRN NEW ENG THIS AFTN/EVENING. TROF AXIS IS                    
CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN NY/PA. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SOLID BATCH OF                 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN NY/PA...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER               
FOR THE MOST PART AS IS SHIFTS EAST. THE TROF WILL PROVIDE A FORCING            
MECHANISM FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MAINTAINED. IN                
LIGHT OF RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE...WILL RAISE POPS TO                  
LIKELY WEST OF HUDSON VALLEY...WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SPED            
UP TIMING A BIT TO INCLUDE PRECIP STARTING THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN              
AREAS. WITH A THICKER CLOUD COVER ACCOMPANYING THE  TROF                        
PASSAGE...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST MODEL               
CAPE VALUES FROM THE 00Z WRF ARE CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG IN PARTS OF THE             
HUDSON VALLEY...THIS LOOKS OVERDONE SINCE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP WILL               
ARRIVE FASTER THAN WRF IS INDICATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK TOO HIGH            
AS WELL. STILL...EMBEDDED T-STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY            
WINDS. WBZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 12 KFT...AND TOO HIGH FOR HAIL             
WITH WITH ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. PWAT VALUES WILL CREEP UP TO               
1.50-1.75 INCH RANGE...SO LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR IN                
SOME SPOTS. WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN QUITE A            
BIT. LOWER TO MID 80S FROM HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD WILL OCCUR...WITH             
SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES ELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING PRETTY                  
QUICKLY...SO ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PASS TO OUR EAST              
BY MIDNIGHT. KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS SE 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS             
EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING DOWN.                                
MID-SUMMER HEAT WILL START TO INVADE BY SUNDAY...AS THE UPR LVL                 
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WITH A VENGEANCE WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW             
ALOFT. THIS FLOW PATTERN FAVORS EXTREME HEAT IN THIS PART OF THE                
COUNTRY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE MODEST HEAT...WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING              
THE LOWER 90S IN MANY VALLEY LOCALS...AS THE STRONGER BELT OF                   
WESTERLIES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE ACROSS WRN NY. DEWPOINTS IN THE            
MID 60S WILL MAKE IT FEEL SOMEWHAT TOLERABLE...BUT THE REALLY                   
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ONLY BE ONE DAY AWAY. MONDAY                  
SHOULD EASILY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR...WITH H85 TEMPS            
SOARING TO AROUND +22C. SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS WILL                 
ALLOW PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH THE UPPER                      
90S...WITH MID 90S IN MOST OTHER VALLEY LOCALS. EVEN THE HIGHER                 
ELEVATION TOWNS ACROSS THE REGION WILL FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES. WITH              
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...HEAT INDICES WILL BE BETWEEN 100-105 IN            
MOST VALLEY AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.                       
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                      
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE PAST MONDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY                   
FINALLY SLIP SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA ON TUE...KNOCKING TEMPS BACK               
DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY LEVELS.                    
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT                
THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETURN AS A WARM FRONT BY THUR...BRINGING A                  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND INCREASING HUMIDITY BACK                
INTO THE REGION.                                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
OTHER THAN LOCAL INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULE CONDITIONS IN PATCHY DENSE              
FOG IN THE VICINITY OF GLENS FALLS EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN                    
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ENTIRE FLIGHT                  
ROUTE...VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL APPLY DURING THIS PERIOD.  CLOUDS              
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN CLOUD DECK BEING A BROKEN            
TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL DECK BASED AROUND 10 THOUSAND FEET.  EXCEPT IN            
THE PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH            
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED.                 
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH AT LESS              
THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT...AND LIGHT AND                
VARIABLE SUNDAY.                                                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 PERCENT                
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE             
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE             
REGION TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUNDAY WILL BE FROM 35            
TO 45 PERCENT. SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10               
MILES AN HOUR TODAY. TONIGHT...THE AIR WILL BECOME NEAR CALM.                   
SURFACE WIND SUNDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LESS THAN 10 MILES             
AN HOUR. THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY IS FOR MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO             
BE FROM 40 TO 50 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWER READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON            
VALLEY. SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MILES AN HOUR.                
HYDROLOGY...                                                                    
THE MOHAWK RIVER IS RUNNING HIGH...BUT IS BELOW BANKFULL. SCATTERED             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AREAS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL               
TODAY...BUT BASIN-WIDE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING            
OF MAIN-STEM RIVERS. AND EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN                         
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PROBABLY NOT RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALLER                 
WATERWAYS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY              
ALLOWING WATER LEVELS TO RECEDE TO NORMAL LEVELS.                               
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MANUAL SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A SFC TROF JUST EAST OF THE              
APPALACHIANS STRETCHING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH CENTRAL VA                
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WAS ALSO NOTED               
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NC. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN                 
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.                               
PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS               
THE AREA. SPC HAS RECENTLY UPGRADED CENTRAL NC/SC TO A SLGT RISK THIS           
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE (AS IN            
THE PAST FEW DAYS)...IT APPEARS THAT DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (FOR            
JULY) WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A WEAK H5 TROF AND ELONGATED VORT              
MAX STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NAM            
APPEARS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE            
GFS AND RUC THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT AN                   
ELONGATED NE-SW VORT MAX WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK DIURNAL                
HEATING. 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN               
550-350 MB...SUGGESTING STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON             
AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. 12Z GSO MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS SFC BASED         
CAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOWER VALUES POSSIBLE            
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 64 WHERE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING H5             
TROF MAY HINDER INSOLATION. THE NAM PORTRAYS THE BEST SHEAR PROFILE             
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 30 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE H5 TROF.             
THE GFS AND RUC SHOW ABOUT 25 KT MAXIMUM WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE                 
AREA. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT                
LINE WINDS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE                     
STRONGEST STORMS.                                                               
NO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PLANNED THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED HWO TO            
INCLUDE MENTION OF SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA. -VINCENT                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 218 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO                  
THIS EVENING WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. UPPER TROUGH WILL                
DIG SOUTH LATER TODAY WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT PROVIDING SOME                      
ENHANCED DYNAMICS TO WHAT WILL BE A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.                 
WITH HEATING EXPECT CAPES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BTWN 3000-4000 J/KG               
AS LONG AS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 2 PM. LIFTED INDEX                
WILL BE AROUND -6 AND LAPSE RATES FROM 18-00Z INCREASE TO 6-7                   
DEGREES C/KM PRIMARILY FROM US1 EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING                
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE BEST BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE. THE MAIN               
CONCERN IS THE TIMING OF THE ENTIRE EVENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVING IN DURING PEAK HEATING AND INTRODUCING SOME MID LEVEL DRY                
AIR THIS AFTN AND EVENING WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABALIZE THE                    
CONDITIONS. MODEL SNDGS DO SHOW THE FLOW BECOMING MORE W TO NW AT               
850 MB AND HIGHER BUT AS LONG AS THE FLOW REMAINS LESS THAN 20 KT               
SUBSIDENCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF AN                   
ISSUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS AND COASTAL              
PLAIN. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NW FLOW THIS COLD INHIBIT               
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT                    
TODAY WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. PWAT REMAINS             
NEAR 2 INCHES EVEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM CELLS                    
SHOULD PROPAGATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME TRAINING             
CELLS ARE POSSIBLE.                                                             
SYSTEM PUSHES TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW                
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER THAN TODAY BUT ON;Y BY A DEGREE OR               
TWO. STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND              
HOT CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.                                        
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                      
THE BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE THE HEAT AND THE OUTLOOK                
FOR THE FIRST REAL HEAT WAVE OF THE SUMMER IN NC. LONG RANGE                    
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S TUESDAY                
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REALLY DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WEEK               
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER OPPRESSIVE AND STAGNANT AIRMASS                  
WHICH WILL APPROACH RECORD HEAT AND GENERATE RATHER POOR AIR                    
QUALITY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                  
SEE WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/RAH/HEAT FOR GRAPHICAL EXTENDED HEAT INDEX                 
FORECASTS.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR VSBYS SHOULD BECOME MVFR BETWEEN 10Z-13Z/15 JULY AT ALL BUT                 
KFAY... WHERE T/TD DEPRESSION WAS STILL 11 DEGREES WITH A 8 KT WIND             
AT 06Z/15. KRWI WILL AGAIN BE ANOTHER EXCEPTION ON THE OTHER END OF             
THE SPECTRUM AS MVFR VSBYS AT 06Z WILL BECOME IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR             
BETWEEN 11Z-12Z... BEFORE RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN                      
13Z-14Z/15. SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS AT 7-12K FEET WILL                  
PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 12Z... WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS CIG AT             
KRWI AROUND SUNRISE. ALL SITES WILL HAVE VFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 14Z...            
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z. WILL INCLUDE VCTS              
FOR NOW IN MOST TAFS BETWEEN 18Z/15 AND AROUND 02Z/16.                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1014 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...SURE ENOUGH...WAITING ONLY ANOTHER 20 MINUTES WAS                     
NECESSARY FOR SOME CONVECTION. BUT ITS OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH                  
WITH THE VERY HIGH DEW POINTS THAT ARE GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE               
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER RANSOM/RICHLAND COUNTIES OF EXTREME               
SOUTHEAST ND. DON/T BELIEVE THESE WILL LAST LONG BUT UPDATED AGAIN              
TO MENTION THEM AS THEY POSSIBLY MIGRATE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO                 
ADJACENT MN. FREEZING LEVELS ARE OVER 16 KFT SO ALMOST A NIL                    
THREAT FOR HAIL BUT ABOUT 1700 J/KG IS AVAILABLE ACCORDING TO THE               
RUC FOR POSSIBLE DOWNBURSTS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 921 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006)                         
UPDATE...GRIDS AND ZONES WERE UPDATED WITH A MAJOR REVAMPING                    
OF DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY AS MOST MODELS HAD NO CLUE TO WHAT                   
OCCURRED. NAM ONCE AGAIN CAUGHT THIS EVENT AND MUST BE TAKEN MORE               
SERIOUSLY NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER RED RIVER REGION IS COOLING NICELY               
BUT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOT MOVE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT. DEW               
POINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 JUST SOUTH OF THAT AREA SHOULD ADVECT              
INTO THE AREA VERY LATE. HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING WERE                
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. CONVECTION NEVER QUITE INITIATED                 
THOUGH CAME CLOSE A FEW SPOTS...THAT WAS REMOVED AS WELL.                       
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND                      
PRECIPITATION. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...LOW                
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR MOBRIDGE SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING               
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG A JMS TO NEAR GFK LINE. WHEN COMPARING THE               
MODELS...THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE 700MB CAP AND ALSO THE             
WIND FIELDS OVER THE GFS AND NGM...SO UTILIZED NAM FOR FORECAST.                
WITH STRONGEST 700MB CAP REMAINING OVER THE S PART OF THE                       
AREA...IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT                  
SURFACE HEATING TO SET RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...AND ALSO IF                     
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS NICE VEERING                    
SOUNDING PROFILES...IF ANY CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THIS                        
EVENING...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.                   
THEREFORE...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING              
IN PARTS OF NW AND WC MN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CAP AND DRIER AIR TO               
PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WITH TEMPERATURES                   
STILL RISING...EXPECT HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES INTO THIS                   
EVENING...SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING               
OUT UNTIL 9 PM.                                                                 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY FILLS AND SLIDES SE OF THE AREA ON               
SUN NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MON AND MON                      
NIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                
THEN ON TUE...A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE                   
ROCKIES INTO THE N PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE COULD STILL BE                     
PROBLEMATIC...KEPT FORECAST CONTINUITY OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR                   
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT.                               
LONG TERM...(WED THROUGH SAT)...A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER               
FOR THIS PERIOD WITH RIDGE FLATTENING S OF THE N PLAINS AND ZONAL               
FLOW OVER THE CWFA. LOW POP FOR START OF PERIOD WITH DEPARTING TUE              
SHORT WAVE...KEPT FORECAST DRY THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN                    
CONSISTENT KEEPING SYSTEM FOR FRI/SAT SOUTH OF CWFA...WILL CONTINUE             
WITH THAT IDEA FOR NOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
144 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CU WILL RESULT IN VFR CIGS FOR MAINLY KLCK AND              
KCMH THROUGH ABOUT 22Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH              
AT LEAST 06Z. WITH CLEARING TONIGHT AND VERY LIGHT WINDS...MVFR                 
VSBYS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED STRATUS IN               
THE FAR SOUTH WHERE DRYING TODAY WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AS                   
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS. BR SHOULD MAINLY BE NEAR SUNRISE AND WILL               
BURN OFF BY 13 TO 14Z. CENTER OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO INDIANA              
THROUGH SUNDAY...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1034 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SFC TROF NOW OVER WV/ERN KY INTO TN...BUT LOW CLOUDS BEHIND TROF                
SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL PLAN ON AN UPDATE MAINLY FOR              
MENTION OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT TIL CLOSER TO NOON TO LINGER                   
BROKEN CONDITIONS MUCH OF FA. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
WILL BRING CU POPPING UP BEHIND LOWER CLOUD DECK. SE FORECAST                   
AREA WILL HOVER BETWEEN BKN AND SCT SKY TODAY...SO MAY NEED TO                  
LOWER HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HERE. NO UPPER AIR RUN TODAY...SO NO                  
CALCULATION OF MAX TEMPS FOR KILN...BUT RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY              
GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY TEMPS...AS DOES CURRENT FORECAST. SO OTHER                
THAN CLOUD AND SE TEMPS...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE                
ILN CWA. AREAS OF FOG ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS MOST ILN TAF SITES.                  
EXPECT THIS FOG ALONG WITH LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE                    
RATHER QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE              
DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE NW. THIS                
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING                  
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z              
SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RATHER DEEP DVV WILL HELP                
KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 418 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
RADAR INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE              
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AREAS OF STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF                 
THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. SO HAVE KEPT                  
SOME CLOUDS IN FOR THIS MORNING BUT THEN DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN                 
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES LATER TODAY.                     
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION               
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO EXPECT TO SEE               
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AFTER TODAY. THE HEAT WILL BE BUILDING                
AS EACH DAY PASSES. HOWEVER EXPECT DEW POINTS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT              
DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX OUT THE SHALLOW SURFACE                  
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. SO FORECAST HEAT INDICES               
REMAIN IN THE 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY MONDAY DEW POINTS                
WILL BE BACK UP NEAR 70 DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME              
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. SO COULD BE IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THEN.                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 157 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
LATEST KILN 88D IMAGERY SHOWING LAST OF TONIGHT'S CONVECTION                    
MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING DEBRIS                 
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT                
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEEP DVV ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL                
TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO               
EXIT THE AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE              
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT                
WITH ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON                    
SATURDAY...SLOWLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY.               
EXPECT ONLY A FEW CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
EXPECT HOT DRY WEATHER WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING                
THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN NEXT FRIDAY AND ALLOW SHORT              
WAVES AND MOISTURE TO PENETRATE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.                    
GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN MID 90S WILL BE                  
COMMON.                                                                         
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1034 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SFC TROF NOW OVER WV/ERN KY INTO TN...BUT LOW CLOUDS BEHIND TROF                
SLOW TO CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. WILL PLAN ON AN UPDATE MAINLY FOR              
MENTION OF CLOUD COVER...BUT NOT TIL CLOSER TO NOON TO LINGER                   
BROKEN CONDITIONS MUCH OF FA. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
WILL BRING CU POPPING UP BEHIND LOWER CLOUD DECK. SE FORECAST                   
AREA WILL HOVER BETWEEN BKN AND SCT SKY TODAY...SO MAY NEED TO                  
LOWER HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY HERE. NO UPPER AIR RUN TODAY...SO NO                  
CALCULATION OF MAX TEMPS FOR KILN...BUT RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY              
GOOD HANDLE ON HOURLY TEMPS...AS DOES CURRENT FORECAST. SO OTHER                
THAN CLOUD AND SE TEMPS...NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 652 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE                
ILN CWA. AREAS OF FOG ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS MOST ILN TAF SITES.                  
EXPECT THIS FOG ALONG WITH LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE                    
RATHER QUICKLY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE              
DAY PROGRESSES...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER AROUND INTO THE NW. THIS                
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING                  
WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z              
SUNDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH RATHER DEEP DVV WILL HELP                
KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM DROPPING BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS.               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 418 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
RADAR INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE              
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER AREAS OF STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF                 
THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH HAS YET TO MOVE THROUGH. SO HAVE KEPT                  
SOME CLOUDS IN FOR THIS MORNING BUT THEN DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN                 
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES LATER TODAY.                     
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION               
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO EXPECT TO SEE               
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AFTER TODAY. THE HEAT WILL BE BUILDING                
AS EACH DAY PASSES. HOWEVER EXPECT DEW POINTS TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT              
DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX OUT THE SHALLOW SURFACE                  
MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM RECENT RAINFALL. SO FORECAST HEAT INDICES               
REMAIN IN THE 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER BY MONDAY DEW POINTS                
WILL BE BACK UP NEAR 70 DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS WINDS BECOME              
SOUTHERLY AGAIN. SO COULD BE IN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THEN.                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 157 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006/                                            
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
LATEST KILN 88D IMAGERY SHOWING LAST OF TONIGHT'S CONVECTION                    
MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATING DEBRIS                 
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA. EXPECT                
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS DEEP DVV ON THE BACK SIDE OF MID LEVEL                
TROUGH IMPACTS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO               
EXIT THE AREA AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE              
FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT                
WITH ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ON                    
SATURDAY...SLOWLY VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY.               
EXPECT ONLY A FEW CU TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                     
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
EXPECT HOT DRY WEATHER WITH A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING                
THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN NEXT FRIDAY AND ALLOW SHORT              
WAVES AND MOISTURE TO PENETRATE SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.                    
GUIDANCE AND EXPERIENCE INDICATE THAT HIGHS IN MID 90S WILL BE                  
COMMON.                                                                         
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1047 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES                     
REQUIRED. MADE A SLIGHT TWEAK TO THE POP. WILL ISSUE ZFP UPDATE                 
TO FRESHEN UP WORDING. EXPECTING MODERATE INSTABILITIES THIS                    
AFTERNOON...WITH RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPS. HIGH FREEZING                    
LEVELS WOULD REDUCE HAIL THREAT...BUT RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS                
INDICATE SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR             
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS REGION              
IN SLIGHT RISK. HWO/SPS ALREADY ISSUED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY APPROACHING               
SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER HOT DAY. TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF ABOUT 75-76              
DEGREES. UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN                      
PORTIONS. RAN HEAT INDICES AND CAME UP WITH 100-105 SOUTHERN                    
COUNTIES AND AROUND 100 CENTRAL. NORTH COUNTIES OK, WILL MENTION                
HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT NO                 
HEAT ADVISORY. WITH PLENTY OF BOUNDARIES AROUND FROM CONVECTION                 
YESTERDAY AND LIS -6/-7...SBCAPES OVER 3000...TOTALS 48 AND 1000-               
850 LAPSE RATES 9-10 DEGS/KM...WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT CHANCE MAINLY               
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP 30               
PERCENT CHANCE GOING AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ALMOST               
LIKE A WEAK COLD FRONT THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER                  
SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER               
TO MID 90S. FORECAST NAM RAOB SHOWS A CAP AS WELL SUNDAY. SO WILL               
NOT MENTIONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.                   
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS                   
AGAIN LOWER TO MID 90S MONDAY.                                                  
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                      
NO REAL CHANGES. UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK OVER AREA BUT                 
THERE ARE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT MAKE IT THROUGH TUESDAY AND                
THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS THOSE DAYS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS                   
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS LOWER TO MID 70S.                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN DIURNAL CU...AND           
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON             
AND EARLY EVENING. SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT                   
CAE/CUB DUE TO PREVIOUS DAY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS                
WILL EXIST THROUGH THE DAY. DID NOT MENTION TSRA SPECIFICALLY IN                
TAF...DUE TO SCATTERED NATURE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE THE HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN                
CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THIS FLOW ARE OVER NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA STRETCHING INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...OVER SOUTHERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN...AND OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE             
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO THROUGH WESTERN               
LAKE SUPERIOR TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.                                        
THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS MORNING. A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SAIL ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN U.P. BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD                 
FRONT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY              
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. AN 850MB            
THETA-E RIDGE WILL TRACK FROM WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY REACHING NORTHERN LOWER BY 00Z THIS              
EVENING. A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET MAX RUNS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.P. THIS JET WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN                
LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE MORNING. SBCAPE IS AROUND 1000J/KG THIS                  
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF             
THE U.P. BY LATE MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE.                        
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. PLAN TO             
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECASTS. SINCE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...               
WILL KEEP ONLY SCATTERED THIS MORNING BECOMING ISOLATED IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB.            
THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WOULD LIMIT             
HEATING A LITTLE. HOWEVER...THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST AND GUIDANCE                
STILL POINT TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL              
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH CAPE VALUES...PROXIMITY OF THE                
LOW LEVEL JET...AND DRYNESS AT THE LOW LEVELS POINT TO HIGH BASED               
CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BUT THE DRYNESS WILL KEEP                
THEM ISOLATED.                                                                  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A                
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY WILL MOVE TO EAST                 
CENTRAL ONTARIO ALL THE WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL                
UPPER MICHIGAN. MUCAPE VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 2000J/KG RANGE OVER            
MUCH OF THE U.P. TONIGHT. THE MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH WILL REMAIN                 
AROUND 60 PERCENT. THUS CONDITION REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THUNDERSTORMS              
WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA.                                              
A SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO                     
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN ON MONDAY. SBCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG WILL BE                
OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER                    
MICHIGAN BY NOON. GFS INDICATE THAT THESE WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY            
21Z. HOWEVER...AS NCEP POINTED OUT IN THEIR DISCUSSION...GFS MAY BE             
A LITTLE FAST SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST...AND RIDGE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE               
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN               
THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO WESTERN U.P. A SURFACE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE              
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WILL DRY AIR.            
THUS WILL LOOK FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE COOLER                     
TEMPERATURES. THE DRY STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MANITOBA ON TUESDAY AND               
RACE TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DRAGGING A COLD                 
FRONT INTO MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP OUT OF            
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL GENERATE MORE            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. PLAN TO LEAVE THE REST OF               
THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
245 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
SYNOPSIS...MID SUMMER HEAT...STRONG CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE                    
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
RIDGING BUILDING IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SHORTWAVE. NORTHWEST FLOW               
ALOFT AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW FROM MID TROPOSPHERE DOWN TO                      
SURFACE. MID DECK OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER CT AND LONG ISLAND                    
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND BE EAST OF THE OKX CWA BY 15Z. GRIDS                 
FOLLOWED MOISTURE FIELD OF RUC.                                                 
THIS LEAVES A VERY NICE SUMMER DAY...THOUGH A BIT WARM. TEMPS FROM              
MAV MOS LOOKING REASONABLE AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST               
VALUES. DEW POINTS SHOULD MIX OUT IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER THE                    
INTERIOR TO NEAR 60 DURING MAX HEATING...WHICH WILL BE REASONABLE IN            
TERMS OF HEAT KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.            
THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETARD SEA BREEZE SOME...BUT EXPECTING            
A CLASSIC SEA BREEZE EVENT. 00Z STONY BROOK MM5 DOING NICE                      
JOB...THOUGH A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE.                                           
MANUALLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWS FOR SEA BREEZE.                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
HEAT IS THE PROBLEM. USED MAV TEMPS AGAIN WITH SOME MANUAL                      
ADJUSTMENT FOR MARINE INFLUENCE. THE REAL FORECAST DETAIL IS GETTING            
THE DEW POINT CORRECT. ALLOWED FOR SOME MIX OUT OF DEW POINT...BUT              
NOT A LOT ON MONDAY AND HAVE UPPER 60S. SAME PROBLEM ON TUESDAY.                
TYPICALLY WE'RE TOO HIGH ON OUR DEWS DURING MAX HEATING IN HEAT                 
WAVES. A ONE OR TWO DEGREE ERROR ON THE DEW PT WILL MAKE THE                    
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HEAT ADVISORY AND A HEAT WARNING. AS PREVIOUS              
SHIFT HAVE INDICATED HERE AT OKX...LEANING TOWARDS INTERIOR AND NYC             
METRO IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. WILL THUS CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER             
STATEMENT. BEST SHOT AT 105 HI IS TUES AFTERNOON.                               
AIR QUALITY INDEX (AQI) IS FORECASTED IN THE 100+ RANGE BY NY STATE             
DEC. EXPECT AN AIR QUALITY ADVISORY FOR NY STATE PART OF CWA FOR                
MONDAY AND PROBABLY INTO TUESDAY. HAZE WAS ADDED TO GRIDS HERE.                 
NEED TO START THINKING OF TSTMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT SLIDING            
DOWN PROVIDES TRIGGER TO SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. IMPRESSIVE LAPSE              
RATES IN THE 8+ C/KM RANGE AND LI'S NEAR -7. THE TRAJECTORY OF MID              
TROPOSPHERIC AIR FROM UPPER PLAINS INTO OUR REGION SUPPORTS THE                 
STRONG LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND THE HEATING AT SURFACE IN THE LOW                  
LEVELS. TO THINK SOMETHING BIG WILL HAPPEN. SHEAR PROFILE NOT OVERLY            
IMPRESSIVE...SO THOUGHT HERE IS MULTI-CELL CONVECTION.                          
HAVE UPPED POPS AND ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO WX TYPE.                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. W FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SW DURING                   
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW            
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH MAX            
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 IN THE              
NYC METRO AREA BY THE WEEKS END. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES              
TUE NIGHT...BUT A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT HAS PROMPTED ME TO KEEP IT              
DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS BOTH DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE              
OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...BUT IT DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE AN             
ISSUE ATTM AS UPPER TROUGH PICKS IT UP WED AND CARRIES IT OUT TO                
SEA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE THU NIGHT...BRINGING A                  
BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING                      
FRI...THEN PUSHES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO VALLEY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. VFR                    
EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR BR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS                    
MORNING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY SHOULD KEEP THIS TO A MINIMUM.               
ANY BKN STRATO-CU LINGERING OVER EASTERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING                 
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER SUNRISE WITH            
BUILDING RIDGING SURFACE/ALOFT. THIS SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY AFTERNOON             
CLOUD FORMATION TO A MINIMUM. OTHERWISE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC                
FLOW...WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...SHOULD HOLD OFF SEA-BREEZE                   
DEVELOPMENT TIL LATE AFTERNOON 19Z-21Z FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.                   
BETTER CHANCE FOR BR/FOG EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG THE                 
COAST WITH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND REBOUNDING DEWPOINTS.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION             
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW TURNING TO A SW FLOW TONIGHT. EXPECT            
A MODERATE SW FLOW FOR MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUES...BUT                      
NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL KEEP SEAS BELOW SCA. A WEAK COLD FRONT              
WILL APPROACH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND                 
THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO PRECIP EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY            
AT SELECT LOCATION ACROSS THE CWA.                                              
                  SUNDAY       MONDAY       TUESDAY                             
NEWARK           101/1988     100/1997     100/1982                             
BRIDGEPORT        94/1983      95/1953      94/2002                             
CENTRAL PARK      99/1980     100/1953     101/1953                             
LAGUARDIA         97/1980      97/1999      98/1999                             
KENNEDY          100/1983      97/1969      94/1983                             
ISLIP             93/1999      94/1997      98/1999                             
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TONGUE                                                                          
AVIATION/MARINE...NV                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
355 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY            
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL GIVE US THE HOTTEST            
WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.  850 MB TEMPS PUSH TO 23C WHILE SFC               
DEW POINTS WILL LINGER IN THE 65F TO 70F RANGE.  CURRENTLY NOT A                
CLOUD IN THE SKY...BUT CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM MCS UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING.  THIS            
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA (A                 
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE).                                              
FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT                 
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.  EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD TO HELP                
KEEP TEMPS IN THE WRN COUNTIES TO THE MID 90S...WHILE AFTERNOON                 
MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.  THIS WOULD                  
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HEAT                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  EXPECT CONDTIONS TO EXCEED HEAT INDEX OF 100                
DEGREES FOR  WRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY.                                  
MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGH THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I EXPECT               
THE SAME TODAY.  SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OF MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY               
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONCERNED ABOUT COMPLEX                  
RACING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT SURVIVE LONG                 
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE                
FEEDING OFF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE COMPLEX.  RUC MODEL SHOWS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST            
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BUT THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AND NEARLY              
DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING ERIE PA.  SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA             
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS SOME MVFR VSBY            
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL AREAS               
BUT REMAIN A LITTLE  HAZY AT ERIE THROUGH THE DAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AND MUGGY WX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED             
WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 590DM THRU THU WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND              
+20C. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WESTERLIES STAYING N OF THE AREA               
THRU THU AT LEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUT OF              
THE AREA UNTIL THEN. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL MOVE              
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS MAY SERVE AS A                 
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION AS H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER TO +8C               
WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE CAP. WL KEEP 30 PCT POPS FOR THE REGION            
TUE INTO WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THU WITH AN                   
INCREASING CAP. WL KEEP THU DRY WITH LACK OF FOCUSING. THE GFS POINT            
TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.             
THIS ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE SOUTH AND PLACES THE REGION IN NW            
FLOW. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE            
EXTENDED BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PIN DOWN                  
DETAILS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 40 PCT POPS FRI THRU SAT.              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJB                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONCERNED ABOUT COMPLEX                  
RACING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN.                
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT SURVIVE LONG                 
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE                
FEEDING OFF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE COMPLEX.  RUC MODEL SHOWS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST            
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BUT THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AND NEARLY              
DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING ERIE PA.  SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA             
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS SOME MVFR VSBY            
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL AREAS               
BUT REMAIN A LITTLE  HAZY AT ERIE THROUGH THE DAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THRU MONDAY. H5                  
HEIGHTS BUILD TO 593DM BY SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND              
+23C. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THE STRONG            
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT CAPPING TO KEEP PCPN OUT THE               
FCST THRU THE SHORT TERM. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL NOT                
EVEN BE MUCH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. THE BIG CONCERN THROUGH MONDAY             
WILL BE TEMPERATURES.                                                           
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WARM                   
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL ALLOW H8 TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND +23C BY 00Z               
MON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAY AREAS TO WARM WELL ABOVE TODAY/S VALUES.             
MOS GUIDANCE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPR 90S WEST AND               
90-95 EAST. WITH ALL OF THE RAIN WE/VE HAD LATELY...IT WOULD SEEM               
THAT MUCH OF THE HEATING WILL INITIALLY GO INTO THE EVAPORATIVE                 
PROCESSES...PERHAPS KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO DOUBT IT WILL BE A VERY HOT AND MUGGY DAY...IT             
MAY NOT BE AS HOT/MUGGY AS THE WARMEST GUIDANCE VALUES SUGGEST. IN              
FACT...THE NAM/WRF WHICH HAS A SUPERIOR LAND SURFACE MODEL...HAS                
TEMPS A FULL CATEGORY LOWER THAN EVEN THE LOWEST MOS GUIDANCE. THIS             
MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO COOL...BUT IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE MODEL MAY BE              
PICKING UP ON THE INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. WL THEREFORE GO WITH               
TEMPS AROUND 95 IN THE WEST...90-95 CLE/CAK/YNG...LOWER 90S MFD AND             
NW PA. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MUGGY ON SUNDAY...THE DWPT VALUES SHOULD             
BE IN THE UPR 60S. UNTIL THE SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST OF THE AREA             
ON SUNDAY...THE DWPTS WILL LIKELY EITHER STAY THE SAME AS CURRENT               
VALUES...OR LOWER AS DWPTS IN MI/WI ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. ALTHOUGH              
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DWPTS WILL GET THAT LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE             
WIDESPREAD 70 DWPTS WILL NOT BE SEEN UNTIL MONDAY. THE MODELS ALSO              
SUGGEST THAT THE DWPTS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL HELP              
HEAT INDEX VALUES. HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL APPROACH 100 ACROSS THE             
WEST...BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REACH THAT              
VALUE.                                                                          
ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH ON MONDAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT            
THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY WITH LESS GROUND                
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA...IT                
WILL ALSO OPEN THE DOOR FOR THE 70S DWPTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.              
MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY AS TEMPS WILL                
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW 70S. WILL              
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT CONCERNS IN THE HWO.                             
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PLACE WILL SEE TEMPS BREAK             
100 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 1988 AND 1995 WHEN TEMPS                 
BROKE 100 ACROSS THE REGION THE 850MB TEMPS WERE AROUND 25C WITH H5             
HEIGHTS AROUND 594DM...AND IT WAS MUCH DRIER THAN IT IS THIS YEAR.              
IT JUST DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL QUITE REACH THOSE VALUES.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AND MUGGY WX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED             
WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 590DM THRU THU WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND              
+20C. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WESTERLIES STAYING N OF THE AREA               
THRU THU AT LEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUT OF              
THE AREA UNTIL THEN. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL MOVE              
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS MAY SERVE AS A                 
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION AS H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER TO +8C               
WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE CAP. WL KEEP 30 PCT POPS FOR THE REGION            
TUE INTO WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THU WITH AN                   
INCREASING CAP. WL KEEP THU DRY WITH LACK OF FOCUSING. THE GFS POINT            
TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.             
THIS ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE SOUTH AND PLACES THE REGION IN NW            
FLOW. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE            
EXTENDED BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PIN DOWN                  
DETAILS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 40 PCT POPS FRI THRU SAT.              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MRD                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE TODAY...BUT RELIEF ON THE WAY...                  
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                 
HIGH HEAT INDICES AGAIN GRAB FORECAST ATTENTION TODAY...WITH                    
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING OF INCREASING CONCERN...WITH                      
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE                  
WORK WEEK.                                                                      
00Z RAOB/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 600DM H5 RIDGE STILL SITTING                 
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND HAD EXPANDED EWRD INTO THE                   
GREAT LAKES. FAST BELT OF MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /100KT H25                
JET/ EXTENDED IN WEST-EAST FASHION ATOP THE SUBTROPICAL                         
RIDGE...ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH THE                
SRN FRINGE OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MINOR                       
PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. LOW LEVEL HEAT PLUME /WHICH                 
PRODUCED ALL TIME RECORDS IN SD YDAY/ HAD SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
EVIDENCED BY H85 TEMPS IN THE MID 20S /C/ RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.                
WEAK WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLOW HAD INDUCED A 40KT H85 JET OVERNIGHT              
WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY HIGH BASED...BUT NONETHELESS QUITE                      
IMPRESSIVE LITTLE MCS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THESE                
STORMS ROOTED ABOUT 650MB PER RUC SOUNDINGS.                                    
OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CNTL MN                        
ACTIVITY..ITS AFFECTS ON TEMPS...HEAT INDICES...AND WHETHER STORMS              
WILL REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK                 
WAVE TO MOVE STORMS ALONG QUICKLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF                
CWA. SRN EXTENT OF STORMS HOWEVER...SEEMS LIKE IT WILL AFFECT NWRN              
CWA AT LEAST THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...MOST LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE                
DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING/VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WILL INCLUDE A              
SMALL MORNING POP IN THE WEST/NORTH FOR THIS ACTIVITY.                          
WHILE THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE                  
CWA THIS MORNING...WILL LITTLE TO CURB OVERALL HEAT...AS                        
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MIXING WILL                
ALLOW STRONG SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE AREA...ESP SRN 2/3 OF CWA. GIVEN NAM/RUC/GFS AGAIN                   
POINTING TO H9 TEMPS /MIXING HEIGHT/ TO 28 OR 29 /C/...STILL THINK              
EXTREME HEAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER CWA TODAY...WITH RUC/GFS SHOWING              
HIGHEST THREAT TO HIT 100 DEGREE MARK FROM LSE EAST TO SPARTA AND               
TOMAH...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL MIX OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S /IN LOWER 70S NOW/. WHILE                 
HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL OVERALL...THINK GOING HEAT ADVRY IS               
JUSTIFIED...ESP GIVEN RUC INDICATING PRIMARILY LOW LEVEL THERMAL                
AXIS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER ARX CWA...ALONG I-90 IN EARLY                       
AFTERNOON. WORRIED SOME CASTELLANUS WILL IMPEDE HEATING A LITTLE                
IN THE NORTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS TO HAVE DRASTIC                 
FORECAST IMPLICATIONS.                                                          
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS IN NRN CWA IN AFTERNOON IN                      
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CNTL MN INTO CNTL WISC. NEXT WAVE IN WRN                
SD WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATE AFTN/EVE AND WORRIED THERE MAY BE                
ENOUGH GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE SCATTERED                       
CONVECTION. WHILE ANY STORM WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED...INVERTED V                
PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH ANY              
STORM IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.                                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD CWA BY LATE TONIGHT...DRIVEN EAST BY                    
STRONGER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CNTL CANADA TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH...AND       
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL TEAM WITH                  
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT.                  
ERRATIC SIGNALS AMONG THE VARIOUS OPNL/ENSEMBLE MEANS ON WHERE/IF               
ANY SMALL MCS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT ENOUGH FORCING THERE               
GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO EXPAND POPS A LITTLE               
FURTHER EAST INTO CWA...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL BE VERY                  
WARM OVERNIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THERMAL AXIS                 
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH              
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE ERN/SERN CWA AFT 18Z. WILL BE                 
BATTLING RESIDUAL CAPPING ISSUES AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AND                
HEAT BEGINS TO QUICKLY GET PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THINK                  
CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND                  
CONTINUED THIS THINKING IN THE GRIDS. DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS                  
ACROSS CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH                 
EVERY RUN...WITH STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN STREAM.                        
FRONT IS PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY...FOR A COOLER AND DRIER               
DAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RIDGE WANTS TO BUILD                  
BACK NORTH WITH RETURNING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE DUE IN              
WED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WX PERIOD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH                 
LIKELY A STRONG MCS IN THE IA/MN/WI REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN                 
PROXIMITY OF DEEP HEAT POOL...AND AMPLE MOISTURE SURGING                        
IN...COULD BE A RATHER VIGOROUS MCS TUES NIGHT. LOCATION STILL IN               
QUESTION...MAY BE FURTHER WEST IN STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ZONE OF                 
LOW LEVEL JET...WITH DEBRIS INTO CWA LATE.                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
STILL SEEING INDICATIONS OF TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN 1/3 OF                
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH ACTUALLY ALLOWS SOME NEGATIVE                
H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO CREEP SOUTH INTO THE NRN CONUS. THIS SHOULD              
LEAD TO H85 TEMPS IN THE 15C RANGE NEXT WEEKEND...SO BIG RELIEF TO              
CURRENT HEAT IS ON THE HORIZON. WILL NEED TO GET THROUGH SOME                   
ACTIVE WEATHER WED-FRI AS WE RID THE HEAT AND CHANGE PATTERN.                   
SHOULD SEE HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
VERY SIMILAR FIRE WX DAY AS YESTERDAY. HOLDING OFF ON RED FLAG                  
WARNING DUE TO MARGINAL HUMIDITIES /EXPECT MAINLY 30 TO 35                      
PERCENT/. WINDS  WILL BE 13 TO 16 MPH MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS...SO              
DEFINITELY A HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY. DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR IF MIXING              
TAKES DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND HOIST                    
WARNING IF NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ017-               
     WIZ029-WIZ032-WIZ033-WIZ034-WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-WIZ044-                   
     WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                               
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ079-               
     MNZ086-MNZ087-MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                 
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ008-               
     IAZ009-IAZ010-IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
925 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WHEN DRIVING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...WE WERE A BIT TAKEN BY              
THE AMOUNT OF ACCAS WHILE LOOKING NORTH.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS               
QUITE A BIT MORE THAN PROGGED AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS BEEN MORE             
ROBUST THAT NUMERICS SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.  RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED            
THUNDER CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE             
CWA AND WE HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR                   
THIS...BUT WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?                                               
NWP IS NOT MUCH HELP THIS MORNING WITH EVEN THE RUC NOT ONLY DRY BUT            
THETA-E MIN COMING ACROSS THE REGION.  GIVEN OUTDOOR OBSERVATIONS               
AND UPSTREAM TRENDS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE               
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING BUT WITH HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION                     
ALOFT...WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH A FAIRLY DRY 12Z SOUNDING...AND NOT              
TO MENTION CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION...WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT OUR            
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND KEEP TEMPS A DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.  WE HAVE            
ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD IN THE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT 3-5                 
DEGREES BUT STILL INTO THE LOWER 90S (HENCE NO HEADLINES FOR THE                
HEAT).                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...  ISSUED 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE              
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE               
REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL BE CS AND AC DEBRIS            
CLOUD DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND THE                   
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THIS DEBRIS CLOUD WILL BE NORTH OF                
DTW/DET. WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH MORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD                 
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST.                         
GOOD MIXING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS LAPSE RATES              
BECOME NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC THROUGH 700 MB...SO ANTICIPATE 10-15 KT             
SURFACE WINDS TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY SOME GUSTINESS IN THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND             
IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THIS HIGH.            
MODELS SHOW AN INVERSION FORMING BY 00Z THOUGH AS 850 MB TEMPS                  
CONTINUE TO WARM AS A RESULT GUSTY WINDS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AND                 
CONFINED TO 18-21Z.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 925 MB TEMPS TO                      
28C...WHICH PRODUCED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER                     
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE AS                
CENTER OF HIGH SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.               
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WIDESPREAD OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO               
WISCONSIN...AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15                     
KTS...ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER LOOKS              
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GOOD DEEP MIXING TO TAKE PLACE                 
AGAIN TODAY AND 850 MB AIR IS EVEN A LITTLE DRIER THAN SATURDAY. SO             
ANTICIPATE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE             
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN               
ADDITION MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TO HIGH IN THE               
AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME PREFER THE TAMER MID 60S GFS DEW POINTS.               
ANOTHER CONCERN IS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD FROM CONVECTION OVER            
NORTHERN LOWER AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD TRIM TEMPS            
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                             
VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER WILL HELP TO KILL OFF                
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...AND CURRENT CONVECTION OVER              
NORTHERN LOWER ALREADY WEAKENING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING SOME CLOUD TOP            
WARMING. SO ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                      
COMBINATION OF 15-20 MPH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER             
90S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY BRINGS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                
HOWEVER WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE REGION AND RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...EVEN             
IF SURFACE DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON RH            
VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS                    
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES IS NORTHWEST AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE RIDGE              
AXIS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...COUPLED WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE                
MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW                    
EXPECTED TO BE FASTER AND STRONGER...DRIVING SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN              
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO DENYING THIS TREND BY ALL OF THE            
MODELS...AND WILL THUS SPEED UP THE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON              
MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY MID 90S EXPECTED. WITH              
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL BE UP AROUND            
100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. IF CAP WEAKENS AND STORMS ARE ABLE TO GO BY             
EARLY EVENING...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH              
THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY (CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG)...STEEP MID             
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB WIND MAX (40+ KNOTS) TRAVERSING THROUGH            
LOWER MICHIGAN. RELATIVE TO THE AIRMASS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT             
VERY HIGH AND CAN NOT JUSTIFY CARRYING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS            
TIME...AS THE FRONT STILL COULD SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA RELATIVELY                
QUIET?                                                                          
WILL REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD...AS SURFACE HIGH (1018+ MB) BUILDS             
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WAS THE SOLUTION THE PREVIOUS 00Z EUROPEAN            
RUNS WERE INDICATING...WHILE THE GFS WAS HANGING UP THE FRONT OVER              
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST MONTH CONTINUES            
TO SHOW THE EUROPEAN DOMINANCE WITH RESPECT TO 500 MB HEIGHTS. AS               
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DID NOT BECOME FIRMLY            
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTER OF THE                 
RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A                    
WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH                
SOUTH.                                                                          
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY             
SHOULD HOLD MAXES IN THE 80S. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT            
FORECAST LOOK TO BE MADE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER             
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A GOOD RADIATING NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED             
MINS OVER 5 DEGREES (CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES)...INTO THE UPPER 50S              
TO LOWER 60S (MID 60S CITY).                                                    
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO DURING THE MID WEEK                   
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE DAY PERIOD DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE                
HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WARM FRONT/MOISTURE SURGE             
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MICHIGAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS            
ALL DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE            
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z EUROPEAN THEN                       
ADVERTISING A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE PATTERN...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH               
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. A QUICK              
LOOK AT THE 00Z EUROPEAN REVEALS A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL                   
TROUGH. NONE-THE-LESS...IT STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH                   
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED               
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GSS                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
703 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP NEXT 24 HOURS. COMPLEX RACING SOUTHEAST TOWARD             
THE FORECAST AREA OUT OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH            
TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE FEEDING               
OFF LOW LEVEL NOCTURNAL JET THAT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST IN THE                    
VICINITY OF THE COMPLEX.  RUC MODEL SHOWS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST            
ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BUT THIS FEATURE WEAKENS AND NEARLY              
DISSIPATES BEFORE REACHING ERIE PA.  SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA             
DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS SOME MVFR VSBY            
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS.  FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE ALL AREAS               
BUT REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY AT ERIE THROUGH THE DAY. MORE HAZE AND MIST            
TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z AGAIN TONIGHT.  LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS             
WILL OCCUR TODAY DIMINISHING TO CALM TONIGHT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...                                      
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY            
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS WILL GIVE US THE HOTTEST            
WEATHER OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.  850 MB TEMPS PUSH TO 23C WHILE SFC               
DEW POINTS WILL LINGER IN THE 65F TO 70F RANGE.  CURRENTLY NOT A                
CLOUD IN THE SKY...BUT CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM MCS UPPER MISSISSIPPI               
VALLEY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING.  THIS            
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA (A                 
LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE).                                              
FORECAST QUESTION OF THE DAY WAS WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT                 
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES.  EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD TO HELP                
KEEP TEMPS IN THE WRN COUNTIES TO THE MID 90S...WHILE AFTERNOON                 
MIXING SHOULD HELP KEEP DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S.  THIS WOULD                  
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HEAT                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.  EXPECT CONDTIONS TO EXCEED HEAT INDEX OF 100                
DEGREES FOR  WRN HALF OF FORECAST AREA MONDAY.                                  
MOS TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING HIGH THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND I EXPECT               
THE SAME TODAY.  SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OF MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY               
AND MONDAY.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AND MUGGY WX WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED             
WITH H5 HEIGHTS STAYING AROUND 590DM THRU THU WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND              
+20C. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE WESTERLIES STAYING N OF THE AREA               
THRU THU AT LEAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUT OF              
THE AREA UNTIL THEN. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL MOVE              
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS MAY SERVE AS A                 
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION AS H7 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO LOWER TO +8C               
WHICH SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE CAP. WL KEEP 30 PCT POPS FOR THE REGION            
TUE INTO WED. THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THU WITH AN                   
INCREASING CAP. WL KEEP THU DRY WITH LACK OF FOCUSING. THE GFS POINT            
TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.             
THIS ALLOWS THE WESTERLIES TO MOVE SOUTH AND PLACES THE REGION IN NW            
FLOW. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY OPEN THE DOOR FOR MCS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE            
EXTENDED BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO PIN DOWN                  
DETAILS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH 40 PCT POPS FRI THRU SAT.              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJB                                                                
LONG TERM...MRD                                                                 
AVIATION...LOMBARDY                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
401 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT AND                
CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE                
STATE ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY                 
INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS                
THE REGION ON FRIDAY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES ALONG                  
TROUGH AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST NEW BRUNSWICK SOUTHWEST               
INTO CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE               
HANDLED THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. EXPECT THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER                  
OR TSTM WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESP EASTERN ZONES.              
EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK EARLY TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE                 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF              
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE                
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE WENT WITH LIKELY POPS                   
OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH CHANCE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND                    
INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE.                                                        
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE              
TO CARRY A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR TSTM THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER.                  
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY NIGHT                 
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. KEPT THEME OF LIKELY                
POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUE.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                    
ONCE AGAIN USED HPC GRIDS PRETTY MUCH AS IS DUE TO CONVECTION                   
FIRING ACROSS CNTL & ERN AREAS. LOOKS DRY & A BIT COOLER FOR                    
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NERN U.S.                    
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGS ESP ACROSS CNTL & DOWNEAST                  
ZONES W/MORE SUN & SWLY WIND FLOW. DROPPED BACK DEWPOINTS A TAD TO              
LINE UP W/OUR NEIGHBOR TO THE S.                                                
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATEST GFS DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY &              
MOVES IT NRN & NWRN MAINE ON FRIDAY DRAGGING THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT              
W/IT. DECENT LLVL & MID LVL SPD MAX ALONG & AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                 
KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS & TSTMS IN THERE FOR FRIDAY. GFS REALLY                 
CRANKS OUT BUNCH OF QPF WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM NOT AS MOIST &                   
KEEPS SFC LOW FURTHER N INTO QUEBEC LINING CLOSE THE 00Z ECMWF.                 
INCREASED POPS ABOUT 10% W/CHC THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA.                          
KEPT SMALL POPS IN THERE FOR EARLY SATURDAY W/UPPER TROF MOVG                   
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL DOWN AGAIN AS LLVL &                 
MID LVL TEMPERATURES FALL BACK. FOLLOWED THIS WILL USING HPC                    
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.                                          
USED THE 06Z GFS WINDS & THEN MODIFIED THEM ESP AT NIGHT TO MATCH               
BETTER. GFS LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE W/INCREASING THE GRADIENT AHEAD                
OF APCHG COLD FRONT. BACKED OFF ON WINDS A BIT LEANING MORE W/10-               
20 MPH ON FRIDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE EVENING W/SOME TSRA W/HVY RAFL &                    
GUSTY WINDS. LOOKING FOR CONDITIONS TO DROP TO MVFR CATEGORY                    
ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES BY 03Z & PRETTY MUCH STAYING THERE                     
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS GOING DOWN TO 2K FT W/VSBYS DOWN TO                
2-3 SM. TOWARD KBGR...LOOKING FOR THINGS TO GO RIGHT TO IFR BY 05               
OR 06Z W/VSBYS LOWERING BLO 1SM & CIGS DROPPING BLO 1K FT IN FOG.               
A SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR KBGR W/WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ATTM. SEAS COULD RUN NEAR SCA CRITERIA                 
ON TUE AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT.                                               
LONG TERM: BACKED WINDS OFF FROM 06Z GFS & LEANED W/SOLID 20 KTS                
AHEAD OF APCHG COLD FRONT. WARM SWLY FLOW OVER RELATIVELY COOL                  
WATERS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO BLYR. FOR                  
WAVE HEIGHTS...WNA GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH LATELY.                       
THEREFORE...HAVE SEAS TOPPING OFF AT 4 FT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...DUDA                                                        
LONG TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                       
AVIATION...NORTON                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
419 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TONIGHT/MON AND                      
POSSIBILITY OF SVR STORMS. WILL THERE BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE                   
TONIGHT OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT?                                            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                 
DOMINATING THE SRN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. UPSTREAM...A SHORTWAVE IS               
EVIDENT OVER SD. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF TSRA ARE                     
OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF WAVE RIGHT NOW...BUT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY            
SHOWS CONTINUED EXPANSION OF ACCAS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN              
MN (AN IMPORTANT SIGN FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HERE TONIGHT).                   
FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS HEADING E ACROSS             
SASKATCHEWAN. CLOSER TO HOME...THIN BAND OF TSRA THAT PESISTED INTO             
THE AFTN FROM NEAR THE KEWEENAW E ACROSS FAR SRN LAKE SUPERIOR WAS              
ALIGNED ALONG 850MB TROF WHERE WRLY WINDS WERE CONVERGING. THIS                 
ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED...BUT NEW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW                    
OCCURRING OVER NRN LAKE MI WITHIN REMNANT OF LAST NIGHTS LOW-LEVEL              
JET. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KGRB TO THE DAKOTAS SHOW VERY STEEP...                  
GENERALLY DRY ADIABATIC...LAPSE RATES THRU 500MB.                               
SD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE NOW IN SASKATCHEWAN                
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT. AS THE 2                      
SHORTWAVES HEAD E TONIGHT...850MB JET WILL AGAIN CRANK UP TO 40-50KT            
INTO UPPER MI ALONG WITH INCREASING THETA-E. EXAMINATION OF GFS/NAM             
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE CAPPING TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN                   
LIFTING PARCELS FROM A VARIETY OF LOW AND MIDLEVELS. CAPE FOR                   
PARCELS LIFTED FROM 850MB RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 1000-2500J/KG...BUT               
CIN IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY ON GFS WHICH HAS VALUES GENERALLY AOA                  
100J/KG. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACH OF SD             
SHORTWAVE JUST AHEAD OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE HEADING ACROSS SRN                   
CANADA...WILL ASSUME CAP WILL BE BROKEN SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW-MID                
LEVELS. EXPANSION OF ACCAS UPSTREAM (JUST AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY                 
AFTN) IS ALSO VERY SUGGESTIVE THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE DESPITE CIN             
INDICATED ON FCST SOUNDINGS. EXTREMELY STEEP NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC               
MIDLEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES OF 8-9C/KM WILL ALSO AID CONVECTIVE            
DEVELOPMENT. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE                    
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...SO TONIGHT MAY END UP BEING            
VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SVR (LARGE                 
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS). MAY BE ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TREMENDOUS LIGHTNING            
ACTIVITY AS WELL. INITIAL STORMS MAY FIRE EARLY THIS EVENING AS WEAK            
SFC BOUNDARY THAT IS DRIFTING INTO UPPER MI LIFTS BACK N.                       
OTHERWISE...BELIEVE BETTER CHANCE WILL OCCUR LATE EVENING AND                   
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM            
NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN UP WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...            
BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT.                                   
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL            
REACH THE WRN FCST AREA MON MORNING AND EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA MON              
AFTN. WILL CARRY CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA UNTIL FROPA. WILL CUT HIGHS             
BACK CLOSER TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W... GIVEN                
FAIRLY EARLY PASSAGE OF FRONT AND DECENT CAA.                                   
COOLER/MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE FCST AREA MON              
NIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES. MINS IN THE LOW/MID 50S            
IN MOST PLACES TUE NIGHT PER GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE.                  
MIXING UPWARDS OF 800-750MB YIELDS HIGHS TUE IN THE LOW-MID 80S                 
INLAND. WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AS LAKE BREEZES SHOULD              
RULE THE DAY.                                                                   
WED THRU SUN...ECWMF/UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT             
FOR THIS PERIOD AND ARE PROVIDING INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR THE                 
REESTABLISHMENT OF A TROF OVER SE CANADA/GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND                
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER WRN NAMERICA.                
SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS THIS TREND TOWARD TROFFING PASSES ACROSS THE              
UPPER LAKES/ONTARIO THU. MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH              
THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT IN GENERAL THE BULK OF RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW A            
SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS FCST INDICATES. WILL THUS             
BRING FRONT THRU THE W EARLY IN THE MORNING AND E EARLY IN THE AFTN.            
AS FOR PCPN...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC ON WED AHEAD                 
FRONT IN WAA PATTERN AND THEN END CHC FROM W TO E WITH FROPA ON THU.            
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROF OVER SE CANADA...FRONT SHOULD MOVE WELL S              
OF UPPER MI. SO...EXPECT COOLER...MORE SEASONABLE SUMMER WEATHER                
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRI-SUN. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FCST FOR FRI/SAT WITH             
SFC HIGH PRES PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ACTUALLY SOME            
AGREEMENT WITH 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z ECWMF FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO               
DROP SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES LATE SAT/SUN. WILL INCLUDE A CHC OF              
SHRA/TSRA ON SUN FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS CHC MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP             
TO SAT BASED ON FASTER TIMING SEEN IN 12Z GFS/ECMWF.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION AND UPDATE...                                                         
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                 
NORTH SECTIONS OF THE CWA...HAVE DISSIPATED AS WARMING TEMPS ALOFT              
AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET UPSTREAM SHOULD KEEP THE REST OF THE                
AFTERNOON QUIET.  TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS WE            
ARE NOW UNDER THE SUNSHINE YET ADDITIONAL AC IS ATTEMPTING TO FORM              
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.  WHERE WE HAVE HAD THE MOST                      
SUNSHINE...SOUTH OF M59...TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED NICELY WITH               
LOWER 90S AS OF NOON AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE LOWER AND            
MIDDLE 60S.  HERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD            
WITH WINDS BACKING AROUND TO A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.              
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM...WHICH WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE                 
IMPACT FOR THE TRI CITIES REGION...SOME CLOUD DEBRIS MAY HEAD                   
SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR FOR DET/DTW.                              
FURTHER NORTH A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY.  AS WAS THE CASE THIS                   
MORNING...CONVECTION ALBEIT HIGH BASED...WAS ABLE TO IMPACT                     
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I69.  EXPERIMENTAL 4KM ARW-WRF NCAR/NMM SUGGESTS             
ANOTHER SMALL MCS WILL INITIATE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND              
MOVE ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE             
U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  THIS WILL BRING A BIT LOWER CLOUD            
DECK FROM FNT TO MBS AND TOWARD SUNRISE WITH THE ADDITIONAL                     
NOCTURNAL COOLING ALOFT...COULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE            
SHOWERS FOR THE TRI CITIES.  THE 4KM ARW-WRF ALSO HINTS AT THIS                 
POSSIBILITY AND WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 FOR MBS ONLY AFTER 12Z.                  
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE TRI CITIES              
AFTER THE NOON HOUR WHERE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL                 
INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE... ISSUED AT 925 AM EDT                                                 
WHEN DRIVING INTO THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...WE WERE A BIT TAKEN BY              
THE AMOUNT OF ACCAS WHILE LOOKING NORTH.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS               
QUITE A BIT MORE THAN PROGGED AND CONVECTION UPSTREAM HAS BEEN MORE             
ROBUST THAT NUMERICS SUGGESTED YESTERDAY.  RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED            
THUNDER CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE             
CWA AND WE HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS/PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR                   
THIS...BUT WHERE TO GO FROM HERE?                                               
NWP IS NOT MUCH HELP THIS MORNING WITH EVEN THE RUC NOT ONLY DRY BUT            
THETA-E MIN COMING ACROSS THE REGION.  GIVEN OUTDOOR OBSERVATIONS               
AND UPSTREAM TRENDS...WE EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE               
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING BUT WITH HEATING AND WARM ADVECTION                     
ALOFT...WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH A FAIRLY DRY 12Z SOUNDING...AND NOT              
TO MENTION CLOUD DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION...WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT OUR            
HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS AND KEEP TEMPS A DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES.  WE HAVE            
ALREADY MADE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD IN THE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT 3-5                 
DEGREES BUT STILL INTO THE LOWER 90S (HENCE NO HEADLINES FOR THE                
HEAT).                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON. MODELS CONSISTENT IN INCREASING 925 MB TEMPS TO                      
28C...WHICH PRODUCED MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S OVER                     
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE AS                
CENTER OF HIGH SINKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.               
UPPER 60S DEW POINTS WIDESPREAD OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO               
WISCONSIN...AND WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15                     
KTS...ADVECTION OF UPPER 60S DEW POINTS INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER LOOKS              
REASONABLE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER GOOD DEEP MIXING TO TAKE PLACE                 
AGAIN TODAY AND 850 MB AIR IS EVEN A LITTLE DRIER THAN SATURDAY. SO             
ANTICIPATE SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DROP BACK INTO THE MID 60S FOR THE             
AFTERNOON...KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN               
ADDITION MOS DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE TO HIGH IN THE               
AFTERNOON...AT THIS TIME PREFER THE TAMER MID 60S GFS DEW POINTS.               
ANOTHER CONCERN IS SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD FROM CONVECTION OVER            
NORTHERN LOWER AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH COULD TRIM TEMPS            
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.                             
VERY WARM 700 MB TEMPS OVER SOUTHERN LOWER WILL HELP TO KILL OFF                
CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...AND CURRENT CONVECTION OVER              
NORTHERN LOWER ALREADY WEAKENING WITH IR LOOP SHOWING SOME CLOUD TOP            
WARMING. SO ANTICIPATE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                      
COMBINATION OF 15-20 MPH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER             
90S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY BRINGS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.                
HOWEVER WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER THE REGION AND RELATIVE                    
HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT NO WARNINGS AT THIS TIME...EVEN             
IF SURFACE DEW POINTS FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON RH            
VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS                    
EXTENDING EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE 500 MB FLOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES IS NORTHWEST AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS. BASED ON THE RIDGE              
AXIS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...COUPLED WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE                
MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW                    
EXPECTED TO BE FASTER AND STRONGER...DRIVING SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN              
BORDER TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS NO DENYING THIS TREND BY ALL OF THE            
MODELS...AND WILL THUS SPEED UP THE CHANCE POPS FOR LATE MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. ANOTHER HOT DAY ON              
MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MOSTLY MID 90S EXPECTED. WITH              
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS TOMORROW...HEAT INDICES WILL BE UP AROUND            
100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. IF CAP WEAKENS AND STORMS ARE ABLE TO GO BY             
EARLY EVENING...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH              
THE MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY (CAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG)...STEEP MID             
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB WIND MAX (40+ KNOTS) TRAVERSING THROUGH            
LOWER MICHIGAN. RELATIVE TO THE AIRMASS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT             
VERY HIGH AND CAN NOT JUSTIFY CARRYING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS            
TIME...AS THE FRONT STILL COULD SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA RELATIVELY                
QUIET?                                                                          
WILL REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH THE                  
EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN THIRD...AS SURFACE HIGH (1018+ MB) BUILDS             
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WAS THE SOLUTION THE PREVIOUS 00Z EUROPEAN            
RUNS WERE INDICATING...WHILE THE GFS WAS HANGING UP THE FRONT OVER              
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST MONTH CONTINUES            
TO SHOW THE EUROPEAN DOMINANCE WITH RESPECT TO 500 MB HEIGHTS. AS               
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DID NOT BECOME FIRMLY            
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE CENTER OF THE                 
RIDGE RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A                    
WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO ALLOW THE FRONT TO PUSH                
SOUTH.                                                                          
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY             
SHOULD HOLD MAXES IN THE 80S. THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT            
FORECAST LOOK TO BE MADE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER             
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...PROVIDING A GOOD RADIATING NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED             
MINS OVER 5 DEGREES (CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES)...INTO THE UPPER 50S              
TO LOWER 60S (MID 60S CITY).                                                    
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO DURING THE MID WEEK                   
PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE DAY PERIOD DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE                
HIGH SLOWLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WARM FRONT/MOISTURE SURGE             
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN MICHIGAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS            
ALL DAY THURSDAY...WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE            
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z EUROPEAN THEN                       
ADVERTISING A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE PATTERN...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH               
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. A QUICK              
LOOK AT THE 00Z EUROPEAN REVEALS A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL                   
TROUGH. NONE-THE-LESS...IT STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST WITH                   
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SITUATED               
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GSS                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
233 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH MANY 90'S ACROSS OUR                  
CWA. LAKE BREEZE KICKED IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...COOLING THE                   
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS UP THE SHORE...DOWN TO THE TWIN PORTS                 
AREA. HUMIDITY IS A BIT HIGHER...AND THE HEAT INDEX IS AT OR IN                 
SOME CASES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS VALUES AND WAS RUNNING               
FROM 90-103 MOST AREAS.                                                         
A WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...JUST NORTH OF               
KXVG-KCOQ EAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY              
IS WEAK IN THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS HOWEVER PLENTY OF                 
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SBCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG OVER              
MUCH OF OUR CWA...AND MLCAPES MORE VARAIBLE ACCORDING TO SPC'S                  
RUC ANALYSIS. THERE ARE POCKETS OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ONE OF THE                   
LIMITING FACTORS IN GETTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP HAS BEEN HIGH              
CIN VALUES. RUC FORECASTING DECREASING CIN VALUES...WITH LESS THAN              
25 IN SPOTS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEST INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA                
AT 19Z. HOWEVER...NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP REMAINING IN             
PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 06Z NAM DID SHOW               
A WEAKENING CAP AROUND 22Z. THE TRUTH IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE                     
BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE VISIBLE                    
IMAGERY SHOW CU FIELD FORMING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. HIGH CLOUDS              
HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER OUR SOUTHERN MN ZONES INTO NORTHERN                   
WISCONSIN...WHICH IS BLOW OFF FROM SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MINNESOTA                   
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.                                                          
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-40 PERCENT POP'S TONIGHT WITH                      
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A WAVE AND BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH.              
INITIATION TIME OF STORMS IS NOT CLEAR CUT. A WAVE MOVING THROUGH               
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL HELP WEAKEN THE CAP AND PROVIDE LARGE SCALE LIFT              
LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALREADY IN                   
PLACE COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING AS WELL YET THIS                
AFTERNOON. 875/900MB WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS                   
WELL TO 30-35KT...JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 00-03Z. IF                   
STORMS DO GO...THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE FOR ORGANIZED                  
STORMS...WITH SEVERE WINDS AND SOME HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.                      
THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING...WITH                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER                
HUMIDITY.                                                                       
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WITH A              
CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A                 
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE SWING THROUGH.                                             
A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES.                               
&&                                                                              
.POINT FORECAST TEMPS/POPS...                                                   
DLH  64  83  58  79 /  40  10  10  10                                           
INL  62  80  51  84 /  20  10  10  10                                           
BRD  68  84  57  87 /  30  10  10  10                                           
HYR  69  88  53  86 /  40  20  10  10                                           
ASX  66  85  55  82 /  40  20  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
LS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO CANCEL HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COORDINATED WITH KMPX                 
OFFICE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA                   
HAVE LIMITED HEATING/WARMING SO FAR TODAY. 850-700MB MOISTURE                   
TRANSPORT INTO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CENTRAL MN/WI                     
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS                 
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY                       
AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER EASTERN SD...IN                 
CONVERGENT AREA AHEAD OF CENTRAL SD SFC LOW AND MDT SHORTWAVE OVER              
WESTERN SD. THUS...PARTLY SUNNY AT BEST ACROSS THE NORTH END OF                 
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS NORTH OF                
KLSE TO KMDZ EXPECTED TO BE SOME 5F COOLER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.                
HEAT INDICES IN THESE AREA EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 95 TO 100                 
RANGE AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                              
&&                                                                              
RRS                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CDT SUN JUL 16 2006/                         
..DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE TODAY...BUT RELIEF ON THE WAY...                   
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                                  
HIGH HEAT INDICES AGAIN GRAB FORECAST ATTENTION TODAY...WITH                    
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING OF INCREASING CONCERN...WITH                      
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE                  
WORK WEEK.                                                                      
00Z RAOB/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED 600DM H5 RIDGE STILL SITTING                 
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND HAD EXPANDED EWRD INTO THE                   
GREAT LAKES. FAST BELT OF MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /100KT H25                
JET/ EXTENDED IN WEST-EAST FASHION ATOP THE SUBTROPICAL                         
RIDGE...ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF THE CANADIAN PROVINCES...WITH THE                
SRN FRINGE OF THIS WESTERLY FLOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED MINOR                       
PERTURBATIONS ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. LOW LEVEL HEAT PLUME /WHICH                 
PRODUCED ALL TIME RECORDS IN SD YDAY/ HAD SPREAD INTO THE AREA                  
EVIDENCED BY H85 TEMPS IN THE MID 20S /C/ RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.                
WEAK WAVE TRAVERSING THE FLOW HAD INDUCED A 40KT H85 JET OVERNIGHT              
WHICH HAS LED TO A VERY HIGH BASED...BUT NONETHELESS QUITE                      
IMPRESSIVE LITTLE MCS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THESE                
STORMS ROOTED ABOUT 650MB PER RUC SOUNDINGS.                                    
OF CONCERN TODAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CNTL MN                        
ACTIVITY..ITS AFFECTS ON TEMPS...HEAT INDICES...AND WHETHER STORMS              
WILL REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK                 
WAVE TO MOVE STORMS ALONG QUICKLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF                
CWA. SRN EXTENT OF STORMS HOWEVER...SEEMS LIKE IT WILL AFFECT NWRN              
CWA AT LEAST THROUGH 14 OR 15Z...MOST LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE                
DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING/VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. WILL INCLUDE A              
SMALL MORNING POP IN THE WEST/NORTH FOR THIS ACTIVITY.                          
WHILE THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL SPILL ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE                  
CWA THIS MORNING...WILL LITTLE TO CURB OVERALL HEAT...AS                        
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MIXING WILL                
ALLOW STRONG SUNSHINE TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON                
ACROSS THE AREA...ESP SRN 2/3 OF CWA. GIVEN NAM/RUC/GFS AGAIN                   
POINTING TO H9 TEMPS /MIXING HEIGHT/ TO 28 OR 29 /C/...STILL THINK              
EXTREME HEAT WILL BE PRESENT OVER CWA TODAY...WITH RUC/GFS SHOWING              
HIGHEST THREAT TO HIT 100 DEGREE MARK FROM LSE EAST TO SPARTA AND               
TOMAH...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN WILL MIX OUT WITH DEWPOINTS              
FALLING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S /IN LOWER 70S NOW/. WHILE                 
HEAT INDICES WILL BE MARGINAL OVERALL...THINK GOING HEAT ADVRY IS               
JUSTIFIED...ESP GIVEN RUC INDICATING PRIMARILY LOW LEVEL THERMAL                
AXIS CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER ARX CWA...ALONG I-90 IN EARLY                       
AFTERNOON. WORRIED SOME CASTELLANUS WILL IMPEDE HEATING A LITTLE                
IN THE NORTH...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS TO HAVE DRASTIC                 
FORECAST IMPLICATIONS.                                                          
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LOW POPS IN NRN CWA IN AFTERNOON IN                      
CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CNTL MN INTO CNTL WISC. NEXT WAVE IN WRN                
SD WILL BE APPROACHING BY LATE AFTN/EVE AND WORRIED THERE MAY BE                
ENOUGH GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO INITIATE SCATTERED                       
CONVECTION. WHILE ANY STORM WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED...INVERTED V                
PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A WIND THREAT WITH ANY              
STORM IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.                                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD CWA BY LATE TONIGHT...DRIVEN EAST BY                    
STRONGER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH CNTL CANADA TROUGH WELL TO THE                   
NORTH...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL                
TEAM WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. ERRATIC SIGNALS AMONG THE VARIOUS OPNL/ENSEMBLE MEANS ON              
WHERE/IF ANY SMALL MCS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT FELT ENOUGH                    
FORCING THERE GIVEN WHAT HAPPENED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS TO EXPAND               
POPS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST INTO CWA...PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT.                 
WILL BE VERY WARM OVERNIGHT GIVEN INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND                 
THERMAL AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA.                                         
FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH              
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IN THE ERN/SERN CWA AFT 18Z. WILL BE                 
BATTLING RESIDUAL CAPPING ISSUES AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AND                
HEAT BEGINS TO QUICKLY GET PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THINK                  
CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND                  
CONTINUED THIS THINKING IN THE GRIDS. DRIER/COOLER AIR SPREADS                  
ACROSS CWA AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIVE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WITH                 
EVERY RUN...WITH STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE NRN STREAM.                        
FRONT IS PUSHED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY...FOR A COOLER AND DRIER               
DAY...WITH SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS. HOWEVER...RIDGE WANTS TO BUILD                  
BACK NORTH WITH RETURNING WARM FRONT AHEAD OF STRONGER WAVE DUE IN              
WED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN ACTIVE WX PERIOD TUE NIGHT/WED WITH                 
LIKELY A STRONG MCS IN THE IA/MN/WI REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN                 
PROXIMITY OF DEEP HEAT POOL...AND AMPLE MOISTURE SURGING                        
IN...COULD BE A RATHER VIGOROUS MCS TUES NIGHT. LOCATION STILL IN               
QUESTION...MAY BE FURTHER WEST IN STRONGEST CONVERGENCE ZONE OF                 
LOW LEVEL JET...WITH DEBRIS INTO CWA LATE.                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
STILL SEEING INDICATIONS OF TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN 1/3 OF                
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH ACTUALLY ALLOWS SOME NEGATIVE                
H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES TO CREEP SOUTH INTO THE NRN CONUS. THIS SHOULD              
LEAD TO H85 TEMPS IN THE 15C RANGE NEXT WEEKEND...SO BIG RELIEF TO              
CURRENT HEAT IS ON THE HORIZON. WILL NEED TO GET THROUGH SOME                   
ACTIVE WEATHER WED-FRI AS WE RID THE HEAT AND CHANGE PATTERN.                   
SHOULD SEE HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.                                
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
VERY SIMILAR FIRE WX DAY AS YESTERDAY. HOLDING OFF ON RED FLAG                  
WARNING DUE TO MARGINAL HUMIDITIES /EXPECT MAINLY 30 TO 35                      
PERCENT/. WINDS  WILL BE 13 TO 16 MPH MOST AREAS...WITH GUSTS...SO              
DEFINITELY A HIGH FIRE DANGER DAY. DAY SHIFT CAN MONITOR IF MIXING              
TAKES DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AND HOIST                    
WARNING IF NEEDED FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.                                  
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ041-WIZ042-WIZ043-              
     WIZ044-WIZ053-WIZ054-WIZ055-WIZ061.                                        
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ079-MNZ086-MNZ087-              
     MNZ088-MNZ094-MNZ095-MNZ096.                                               
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ008-IAZ009-IAZ010-              
     IAZ011-IAZ018-IAZ019-IAZ029-IAZ030.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU/RRS                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi