AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
950 AM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
MORNING SAT PIX SHOW CLDS FROM LK OT MOVING THRU THE MOHAWK VALLEY              
CHANNEL INTO THE BERKS...OCNLY REACHING CT VALLEY.  CLD PATCHES                 
OVER GREEN MTNS ALSO MOVING ACRS SW NH BUT SO FAR DRYING UP AS THEY             
DO SO.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PCPN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT NOTHING              
INTO NEW ENGLAND.                                                               
MORNING RAOBS SHOW MOIST LOW LVL CONDITIONS AT ALY...THANKS TO THE              
LK OT FLOW...AND DRY LOW LVL CONDITIONS AT OKX AND GYX WITH RH/S                
AT 45% AND 60% RESPECTIVELY.  FULL SUN POTL BRINGS TEMPS ARND 50                
NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.  PROFILES ARE STABLE WITH VERTICAL TOTALS               
ARND 16 AT ALY/OKX/GYX AND 18 AT CHH...DEFINING A MINIMA OF VT/MAXIMA           
OF STABILITY CENTERED OVER THE F/A.  06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW GOOD           
SUBSIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A GENERAL CYC FLOW ALOFT.                      
WITH CYC FLOW ALOFT IT IS ALWAYS TEMPTING TO GO STRONG ON DIURNAL               
SC.  HOWEVER...WITH DRY AIR AT LOW LVLS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF JUICE             
TO WORK WITH HERE IN SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE                   
FIGHTING ANY LIFT FROM DIURNAL HEATING.  BEST CHC WOULD BE IN SW                
NH/WRN MASS WHERE SPILLAGE FROM NYS WOULD HELP...BUT EVEN THERE                 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR.  SO WHILE WE WILL GET DECENT               
DIURNAL LOW LVL MIXING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WINDS THIS AFTN...WL             
GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC FCST OF SKY COVER.  WL GO MO SUNNY S AND              
E...PTLY SUNNY N AND W. WL GO BREEZY MOST ZONES...BUT WINDY ON CAPE             
COD.  LOOK FOR MAXT RANGE OF 45-55 ACRS REGION AS PER FULL SUN TEMPS.           
MARINE...SUSTAINED WINDS ARND 20 AT 013 AND IOS...20G30 AT ACK...ARND           
30 AT BUZ.  WL UP THE SEAS IN THE SOUNDS TO 4-8 FT.  CONT SCA.                  
BOX...SCA.                                                                      
WTB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBOX 281226 COR  ma                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
610 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT 88D DATA AND               
SPOTTER REPORTS. APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF 28 DBZ RETURNS MOVING               
ACROSS EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO               
PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. A SNOW SPOTTER IN SOUTHERN EMMET COUNTY REPORTED           
SNOWFALL HAD BECOME HEAVIER WITH LARGER FLAKES. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO           
THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF 300-310 AND THE RUC TIME SECTION FOR PLN AREA             
SHOWING MOISTURE STARTING TO EXTEND UP INTO AN AIRMASS WHERE                    
TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -10C AND -12C.                                         
EXPECT OVERALL WIND FLOW TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH LATER THIS         
EVENING AND DIMINISH THE LAKE GENERATED SNOW BANDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY           
EFFECTING THE STRAITS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD                
MENTION OF OCCASIONAL EVENING SNOWS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE STRAITS          
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                     
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ008                             
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 282315  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
610 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT 88D DATA AND           
SPOTTER REPORTS. APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF +28 DBZ RETURNS MOVING              
ACROSS EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES... MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO               
PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY. A SNOW SPOTTER IN SOUTHERN EMMET COUNTY REPORTED           
SNOWFALL HAD BECOME HEAVIER WITH LARGER FLAKES. THE HEAVIER SNOW IS             
MAINLY DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF 300-310 WITH THE RUC TIME SECTION           
FOR PLN AREA SHOWING MOISTURE STARTING TO EXTEND UP INTO AN AIRMASS             
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -10C AND -12C.                                   
EXPECT OVERALL WIND FLOW TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH LATER THIS         
EVENING AND DIMINISH THE LAKE GENERATED SNOW BANDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY           
EFFECTING THE STRAITS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADD                
MENTION OF OCCASIONAL EVENING SNOWS TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE STRAITS          
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 282041  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                     
...LAKE SNOW CONT TO BE MAIN CONCERN...                                         
SYNOPSIS...A CAN SFC RIDGE SLIDING INTO NRN MS VALLEY THIS AM WILL              
KEEP A STRONG NW FLOW ACRS UP. A H50 RIDGE CONT TO BUILD OVR NRN                
ROCKIES. A SFC TROF AND AN ASSOC SHRTWV WILL SLIDE DN THE E SIDE OF             
RIDGE INTO NRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON.                                           
GOES IR VERIFIES THE Q-VECTOR CNVG OVR LAKE NIPGON AREAS THIS AM                
WITH THE HVIEST CLDS CVR. MESOETA SHOWING THIS BEST LLVL CNVRG TO               
SETTLE OVR THE CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BY NOON. AT THE SAME TIME SFC                
TROF AND THE SHRTWV WILL TRAVERSE THE NRN LAKE. LATEST RUC DATA                 
SUPPORTS THIS ALSO. 12Z INL RAOB WAS 1C WRMR THAN MDLS FCSTD. THIS              
WOULD INDICT A LTL DELAY IN THE ON SET OF THE LES. SN HAS STARTED IN            
CMX AND KMQT 88D SHOW SCT PATCHES OF SNOW OVR NRN UP.                           
WAITING FOR NEW MDLS TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. IT             
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THE SLIGHTLY WRMR TEMPS              
AT INL.                                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 281611  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
230 PM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
THE MAIN FCST PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE AMT OF CLDS AND TEMPS.             
IN THE OUT PERIODS THERE WNDS WL BE A FCST PROBLEM.  AREA WL BE IN              
THE TRANSITION FM NW FLOW REGIME...WITH WK SHRT WVS MOVG SEWD ACRS              
THE AREA...TO UPR RDGG.   SFC HIGH PRES SKIMS BY AREA MOVG SEWD                 
PRIMARILLY ACRS THE UPR GRTLKS RGN.  LGT AND VARIABLE WNDS WL OCR               
OVR THE FCST AREA UNTIL MIDDAY TMW.                                             
FOR THIS EVENING AND TNGT...MAIN PROBLEM IS THE LOW CLDS THAT HAVE              
PERSISTED ALL DAY ACRS MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THE             
LOW CLDS HAVE ADVCTD INTO THE WRN PTNS OF THE CWA.  RUC AND ETA SEEM            
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CLDS.  CLDS MAY SPREAD ACRS THE NERN               
NEBRASKA TNGT AND CONTG INTO MON MIDDAY.  HWVR..LTST STLT IMAGERY               
DOES INDC SOME EROSION ON THE NRN END OF THE CLD DECK AS DRIER NWRLY            
FLO AROUND H85 PREDOMINATES.  CLDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE OLU AREA                 
AS WELL AND MAY AFFECT TQE AND EVEN OMA AREA BY TNGT. SOME BREAKUP              
MAY OCR TMW AFTN AS 850 FLO INCRS AND MORE MIXING OCRS.  HWVR...WL              
STILL TEND TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY NERN AND E CNTRL ZONES AND LV SERN               
ZONES PARTLY CLDY.                                                              
AS FAR AS HI TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WL TRIM TEMPS A BIT IN THE NE                
WITH HIGHS AROUND 40.   IN THE SE...TEMPS SHUD REACH AROUND 50 ON               
MON.                                                                            
ON TUES...WRM ADVCTN TAKES PLACE ACRS THE AREA.  BY TUES NGT...STG              
LO LVL WRM ADVCTN TAKES PLACE IN THE E WITH SOME FRONTOGENETICAL                
FORCING INDCG THAT PERHAPS SOME PRECIP MIGHT TAKE PLACE LATE TUES               
NGT.  WL NOT MENTION ANY CHC OF PRECIP IN TUES FCST AS THIS IS STILL            
TOO FAR OUT IN FCST PD.                                                         
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 281756  ne                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1110 AM CST SAT NOV 27 1999                                                     
STRATO-CU DECK IS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH...BUT THE SOUTHERN            
EDGE HAS BEEN BREAKING UP SOME SINCE 16Z.  THE 15Z RUC AND THE 12Z              
ETA DO NOT HINT AT ANYTHING THAT WOULD CAUSE THIS DECK TO ERODE.                
THE LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO THE BOTTOM OF CLOUDS IS PROGGED TO SEE            
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ESSENTIALLY NO WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND             
THIS LAYER ALSO HAS AN EAST COMPONENT TO THE WINDS.  THE INVERSION LAYER        
WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE IS PROGGED TO EXPERIENCE WEAK WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION TODAY...WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE STRATUS INVERSION.              
ETA AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CHANGE LITTLE...EVEN INTO TONIGHT.               
THE FWC MOS GUIDANCE TRIES TO CLEAR OUT GRI BY 21Z...BUT THINK THIS             
IS WAY TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN ABOVE REASONING.  HAVE ADJUSTED                     
TEMPERATURES DOWN AND KEPT THE CLOUDS IN THIS AFTERNOON.                        
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
NIETFELD                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 280841  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
940 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
00Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SFC FRONT BISECTING CWA. DWPTS SLOWLY DROPPING N           
OF THE FRONT BUT RISING A LITTLE IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE            
FRONT. THIS IMPLIES THAT FORECAST MINS MIGHT BE LITTLE ON THE COOL              
SIDE...ESPECIALLY AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WITH WEAK              
RIPPLES IN THE H5 FLOW ATTM.                                                    
HOWEVER...RUC HAS H5 MOIST AXIS SE OF MOST OF THE CWA BY 09Z...WHICH            
WOULD IMPLY A FEW HOURS OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...ONLY PLAN           
TO CHANGE CLOUD WORDING ATTM. WL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING MOSTLY             
CLEAR TOWARD MORNING ALL ZONES.                                                 
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 290209  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
250 PM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
20Z SFC ANAL SHOWS RIDGE ALLIGNED FROM N-CNTL ND TO SE MN AND HIGH              
CENTER STRENGTHENING ABOUT 6 MB OVER LAST 12 HOURS. LOOP SHOWS                  
STEADILY DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS CWA. OVERLAY OF RUC 500 MB ON WV              
LOOP SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND H5 HTS RISING OVER              
SD...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MODEL TRENDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS...LOW             
LEVEL MSTR AS DEPICTED BY ETA...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED                 
TONIGHT...HAVE SOME CONCERNS OVER PSBL FOG. HOWEVER...ETA SFC DEW               
POINT FCST SHOWS AREA OF LOWER MOISTURE MOVING SE INTO CWA                      
TONIGHT...AND FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES TREND FOR DECREASING             
DEW POINTS...SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR TONIGHT. FCST CHALLENGE THIS               
CST PERIOD IS STRENGTH OF SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT MON AND MON                     
NIGHT...AND RESULTANT WIND SPEEDS. MODELS SIMILAR IN TERMS OF                   
INCREASING THE SFC PRESSURE GREADIENT DURING THE AFTN ON MON AND                
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND TIMING.               
AVN AND NGM IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT ON SFC PRESSURE FCSTS...BUT FEEL               
THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE                
FAIRLY WEAK S/W IN THE U/L FLOW. ETA SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE               
MORE REASONABLY. THEREFORE...FOLLOWED ETA MOST CLOSELY THIS FCST                
PERIOD. BASED ON 925 AND 850 WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS...AND              
GOOD MIXINING EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUN FOR MONDAY...INDICATED                
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY MON AFTN. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE                 
EASTERN COUNTIES EVEN AFTER SUNSET AS STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL BE                
MOVING THROUGH AT THAT TIME. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE                
AGAIN PULL VERY MILD AIR NORTH INTO CNTL-NE SD PUSHING TEMPS WELL               
ABOVE AVG FOR LATE NOV. 850 TEMP AND WINDS SHOWS GOOD WAA BEGINNING             
AROUND 12Z MON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE. ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR MON               
AND TUE ABOVE GUIDANCE...MORE IN LINE WITH FAN...DUE TO EXPECTED                
STRENGTH OF WAA.                                                                
...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                              
MODELS REALLY HAVEN'T DIVERGED FROM PREVIOUS RUN. NICE 5H RIDGE POPS            
UP OVER WESTERN US..THEN MOVES EAST DURING FIRST PART OF WEEK. THERE            
ARE NOW SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE 5H TROF                
COMING IN. PREVIOUS RUN HAD THE ENERGY SPLITTING...WITH THE MAJORITY            
SLIDING WELL SOUTH OF AREA. LATEST RUN ON THE MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF...             
ALTHO STILL SPLITTING ENERGY...KEEPS THE SOUTHERN STEAM VORT MAX A              
BIT FURTHER NORTH. QUESTION IS GOING TO BE TIMING OF CAA BACK INTO              
THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT CAA WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN CWA BY 18Z              
WED...BUT NOT REACHING THE KATY AREA UNTIL 00-06Z THURSDAY. MRF                 
REALLY DROPS 850MB TEMPS OFF DURING DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WILL UNDERCUT             
FMR TEMPS A BIT FOR WED ALL AREAS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALLY                
DOESN'T ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON WED...SO                
WILL PUSH PCPN OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WED. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY            
BE REACHED EARLY ON...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING DURING                
DAY. ON THURSDAY...SYSTEM MOVES OUT QUICKLY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA             
DRYING OUT BY 18Z. WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE OF MORNING SNOW SINCE               
TIMING ISNT ALL THAT CERTAIN YET. PREFER THE CURRENT TEMPS FOR                  
THURSDAY...WHICH UNDERCUTS GUIDANCE BY 5 TO 7 DEGREES. FRIDAY HOLDS             
ANOTHER INTERESTING FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST              
OUT OF PAC NW. WAA RETURNS BACK TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN                
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. UKMO MODEL DROPS THIS SYSTEM REALLY FAR TO               
THE SOUTH...WHILE THE MRF/ECMWF TAKES IN MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH               
ND. ALTHO WAA IS TAKING PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THE LO-LVL COLD AIR             
IN PLACE WILL BE TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT. THIS LOW SWINGS THE NEXT COLD              
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE ANY PCPN WOULD             
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND MODELS ARE REALLY UNSURE ABOUT              
LOCATION AND TIMING...WILL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FCST FRIDAY AND SEE HOW             
THE WEEK PROGRESSES.                                                            
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
LORENS/HINTZ                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 281642  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1022 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                     
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE ZONES AT THIS TIME.  ONLY CONCERN IS                 
CLOUD COVER AS PATCHES OF AC SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN ND.                 
LATEST RUC FORECAST KEEPS AREAS OF 70-80 PCT RH MOVING OVER CWA                 
THROUGH 18Z...WITH A DECREASE IN RH BY 21Z.  THIS WOULD LEAD ME                 
TO THINK THAT THE MOCLDY BECMG PTCLDY FCST GOING FOR MOST ZONES                 
WOULD PAN OUT...AND WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR NOW.  DESPITE CLOUD                 
COVER...TEMPS ARE RISING NICELY...AND FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO BE                 
ON TRACK.  WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE AND FAIRLY LIGHT AS RIDGE                 
AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS CWA.                               
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 281530  sd                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                     
WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE LOW CLOUDS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE...CONCERN THIS            
AFTN IS WITH HIGH TEMPS. COLD AIR WEDGED INTO NE ZNS EXPECTED TO                
LIMIT HEATING THERE. 12Z DDC SOUNDING ONLY SUPPORTED UPPER 50S.                 
WARMER READINGS LIKELY IN SRN ZNS WHERE AMA RAOB SUGGESTED                      
LOWER/MID 60S POSSIBLE. 15Z RUC VEERS WINDS TO E ACROSS WRN ZNS                 
THIS AFTN WITH MORE NRLY DIRECTION IN E BUT SPEEDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.            
OROGRAPHIC INDUCED HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING                
ACROSS ERN NM HOWEVER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS NRN ZNS THAN YDAY GIVEN           
DRYING APPEARANCE ON WATER VAPOR LOOP.                                          
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 281637  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                     
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR A PARIS-DALLAS-JUNCTION LINE. WE PREFER         
TO PUT THE LEADING EDGE NEAR THE 50 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM LINE.                  
EXPECT SLOW MOVEMENT THE REST OF TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASING RIDGING            
ALOFT NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT IT WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA BY TOMORROW              
MORNING. LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY            
AND MONDAY BUT GENERALLY DRY.                                                   
EXTENDED FORECAST STILL SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM ON                     
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT MRF DOES NOT SUGGEST AS GREAT A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN AS YESTERDAYS RUN. BEST GUESS IS THE THERE WILL BE               
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MORE                
LIKELY TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS.                             
AVIATION...DFW SURFACE WIND HAS BECOME WESTERLY AT 16Z. WE EXPECT A             
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY 18Z...BUT WITH SPEEDS NO MORE THAN            
10-12 KNOTS. NEW MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE                
EASTERLY FLOW DFW AREA FOR MONDAY MORNING. CWSU RUC FORECASTS WOULD IMPLY       
POSSIBILITY OF IFR WEATHER...BUT THE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY MAKES ME               
THINK THAT IT WILL BE MORE LIKE MVFR...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL. WE WILL             
PROBABLY PUT A SCT VRBL BKN LYR AROUND 1500 FEET 12Z-16Z WITH THE               
18Z TAFS. 03                                                                    
.FTW...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 281553  tx                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 AM CST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                      
STRONG SFC ANTICYCLONE TO N WILL FORCE A CD FNT S ACROSS THE CWA                
LATE TNGT AND MON. ETA X-SCTNS REVEAL SOME LLVL MSTR TDY ACROSS E               
CWA THEN INCRSG TNGT/MON WITH WK POS OMEGA. ALSO DECENT SFC                     
FRONTOGENESIS LATE TNGT/MON WITH WK MSTR CONVG AND WK LLVL VOT ADVECTION        
ON MON. NGM X-SCTNS SHOWS LESS LLVL MSTR TDY BUT QUITE SIMILAR                  
THEREAFTER. AVN X-SCTNS INDICATE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TRENDS BUT LESS               
MSTR. NGM/AVN INDICATE SOME DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG IN 1000-850MB LYR.             
POINT SOUNDINGS AND SFC DWPT DEP/SFC COND PRES DEF FROM MESOETA/RUC             
SUGGESTS AREAS OF DENSE MORNING FG E AND PTCHY W TDY AND MON.                   
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ACTUALLY REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND                    
RELATIVELY HIGH THRU MON. THUS TDY MS/SY...TNGT CLR THEN LOW CLDS/FG            
WHICH WILL LKLY PERSIST THRU MON AM THEN BECMG PC MON AFTN.                     
1000-850MB THICKNESS FROM ETA/AVN SEEMS REASONABLE AS NGM APPEARS               
TOO WARM. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE RATHER SIMILAR AND REASONABLE SO WILL              
GNRLY FOLLOW WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. NO FLAGS FOR THE            
MARINE WATERS AS SSE FLOW BECOMES NNE ON MON. LAND/WATER WND NO MORE            
THAN 15KTS AND GUSTY MON AFTN. STRONG WAA AND ONSHORE FLOW SLATED               
FOR WED/THU WITH ANOTHER CD FNTL PASSAGE DURING THU AFTN/EVE. CANNOT            
FIND ANY PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT PCPN EXCEPT PSBLY SLGT CHC NE CWA.               
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP UB 079/055/075/052 071 00-                                                  
VCT UB 080/051/072/049 070 00-                                                  
LRD UB 082/055/076/055 073 00-                                                  
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
(SYN)...85/BB                                                                   
(MESO)...87/WC                                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 280858  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1115 PM EST SUN NOV 28 1999                                                     
APX 88D SHOWING AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER MACKINAC          
COUNTY WITH AN AREA OF +28 DBZ NOTED BETWEEN ST IGNACE AND BREVORT.             
SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY SHOW THAT AN              
AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN OVER THE COUNTY ALREADY THIS                
EVENING WITH A MAX REPORT OF 7 INCHES NEAR ENGADINE. THIS OCCASIONALLY          
HEAVY SNOWFALL IS DUE TO THE COMBINED AFFECTS OF THE INSTABILITY OVER           
THE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAKE         
INDUCED TROUGH MOVING OVER EAST UPPER MICHIGAN. APX 88D ALSO SHOWING A          
BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN STRAITS AREA FROM THE BRIDGE              
SOUTHEAST TO BETWEEN ROGERS CITY AND DRUMMOND ISLAND. THIS BAND OF              
SNOW SHOWERS IS DUE TO OVER WATER INSTABILITY...LAKE SUPERIOR                   
MODIFICATION AND LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE STRAITS. THE MAIN          
FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THEREFORE             
THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.                                          
THE LATEST ETA AND RUC TIME SECTIONS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SHOW           
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) EXTENDING UP FROM         
THE SURFACE THROUGH 800 MB. THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWS THIS         
MOISTURE WILL ENCOUNTER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -10C AND -12C WHICH IS A           
GOOD RANGE FOR MAX ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. DELTA T'S WILL BE AROUND 17C FOR         
NORTHWEST LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND 320-330. SOME            
ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SINKING               
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS INTO NORTHERN LOWER OVERNIGHT. RUC            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS TO BE GREATER THAN 5000 FEET FOR                
NORTHWEST LOWER... WHEN COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND DELTA T'S               
AROUND 17C... WOULD SUGGEST 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE BY DAWN MONDAY FOR           
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. MODEL DATA         
SUGGESTS THE BEST TIME FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST LOWER                
MICHIGAN WILL BE BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z.                                           
FOR EAST UPPER...DELTA T'S WILL BE GREATER THAN 17C WITH ABUNDANT               
MOISTURE...GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT... EXTENDING INTO MID LEVELS. WINDS          
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB WILL BE FROM 330... WHICH WOULD EFFECT          
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF BOTH CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. LAKE               
EFFECT CHECK LIST SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND            
EARLY MONDAY FOR EAST UPPER... TO COMBINE WITH THE ALREADY AVERAGE OF 3         
TO 4... FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.                           
THEREFORE WILL KEEP EAST UPPER IN A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY                   
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ANTRIM...CHARLEVOIX            
...OTSEGO...KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.                                     
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...MIZ008-015.           
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...OVERNIGHT...MIZ019-021-022-027-028.          
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 290421  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS MAIN CONCERN.                                               
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING             
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AROUND 340 DEGREES. 4                
MAIN BANDS EVIDENT ON 88-D NOW ORIENTED N-S... WITH THE DOMINANT                
BANDS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE/WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES AND OVER EASTERN            
ALGER COUNTY. SCATTERED AREAS OF >28DBZ RETURNS WITHIN THESE BANDS.             
VWP SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND 9K FEET...LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...             
BUT STILL GOOD FOR MOD/HVY SNOW.                                                
ONE SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FA PER WV IMAGERY AND RUC                     
ANALYSIS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING             
SOUTHWARD IN N FLOW. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE LES EARLY AFTERNOON              
BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS N-S AXIS OF                
HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAKE                   
ENHANCED SFC TROF A LITTLE LESS EVIDENT THAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS. RUC INITIALIZED SFC FEATURES AND 850MB TEMPS WELL. EXPECT                
LAKE/850MB DELTA T/S TO REMAIN IN 15-20 C RANGE. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 900MB THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z KINL SOUNDING...WHICH             
SHOWED INVERSION AROUND 875MB. CWPL SOUNDING UPSTREAM ALSO SHOWS                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800MB WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 800MB.            
RUC IS NOT TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING INVERSION OVER CENTRAL AND                   
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN PURE LES NATURE OF CURRENT               
CONDITIONS...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WILL               
ADJUST FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN               
WARNING AREAS...HIGHEST IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST SPOTTER REPORT SO            
FAR OF 7 INCHES WAS IN ALGER COUNTY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR            
MARQUETTE COUNTY... WHERE LES HAS PERSISTED EAST OF MQT AND                     
FAVORABLE NNW FETCH SHOULD CONTINUE. ANOTHER WEAK BAND ALSO OVER                
WESTERN MQT COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHSN BASED ON             
RADAR RETURNS.                                                                  
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALGER/LUCE/NORTHERN              
       SCHOOLCRAFT                                                              
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MARQUETTE COUNTY.               
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 291601  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1008 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
15Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD SFC HIGH OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH RIDGING INTO            
NE MN. VIS LOOP SHOWS SC DECK OVER NE MN WITH SOME HOLES BEGINNING              
TO APPEAR. THIS DECK MATCHES WITH 60 PERCENT 925 MB RH CONTOUR FROM             
THE 14Z RUC. WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EVEN MORE                
WITH ADDED SOLAR. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING AND TAKE A              
CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS.                                                           
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
GSF                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 290945  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC                              
1030 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN                  
EXPECTED. CURRENT SET OF ZONES FEATURES MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING IN MOST            
PLACES. BOTH THE 06Z ETA AND THE 09Z RUC SHOW THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS              
MOVING E OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z OR SO AS MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON UPPER         
AIR ANALYSIS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW. THUS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE            
WEATHER SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE FORECAST IN A FEW HOURS...SO WILL ONLY           
MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WORDING. CURRENT TEMPS ARE NOT FAR FROM FCST           
HIGHS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THINK WE         
ARE STILL IN DECENT SHAPE.                                                      
ONE CHANGE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MADE IS THE HIGH TEMP ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS GRD HAS ALREADY REACHED 60 DEGREES.  WILL SPLIT           
OFF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO RAISE TEMPS ONE CATEGORY.                             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 291528  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1010 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
MAIN PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER...AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES             
ACROSS THE CWA.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SOME EROSION TO PORTION OF SC             
DECK EXTENDING INTO NW IA...BUT BROAD AREA SEEMS TO BE HANGING TOUGH            
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES.  GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWEST OF            
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN SD YESTERDAY...HAVE TO THINK A SIMILAR              
PERSISTANCE MIGHT OCCUR OVER JAMES VALLEY AREA TODAY.  THIS THOUGHT             
IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /RUC AND 06Z MESOETA/...               
WHICH KEEP 70%+ LOW LEVEL RH OVER WESTERN CWA MOST OF THE DAY.  ONLY            
CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO IS PIREPS AND VISUAL OBSERVATION HERE AT             
FSD SHOW CLOUD DECK IS FAIRLY THIN /200 FT E OF MORVR/...SO ANY                 
ATTEMPT AT MIXING COULD BE SUCCESSFUL AT BREAKING IT UP.  WILL GO               
WITH PERSISTANCE IDEA IN FARTHEST WEST AREAS...WHILE KEEPING AREAS              
CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  AS A RESULT...WILL               
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH OR SO IN WESTERN COUNTIES FROM CURRENT              
MID-UPPER 40S.  WILL LET EASTERN AREA TEMPS RIDE FOR NOW.                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 291554  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
930 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOW BLEEDING SWD OUT OF IOWA AND               
MINNESOTA, PUTS MIDDLE TN IN A STABLE AND VERY COOL AIR MASS.                   
BASED ON LATEST RUC, WHICH SHOWS SGFNTLY COOLER 1000MB TEMPS TDY THAN           
DID PREV (00Z) MODELS, WILL PROBABLY UPDATE AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR SOME            
AREAS AND GO MORE WITH A NW-SE TEMP GRADIENT (RATHER THAN CURRENT               
N-S SET-UP).                                                                    
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 291546  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1014 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ZONES THIS UPDATE. 12Z SOUDINGS SUPPORT              
CURRENT FCST HIGHS. MESOETA/RUC SHOWING GOOD COVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE              
ON THE E SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. WINDS SHUD BEGIN             
TO INCREASE ARND 21Z. THIS WL BE THE BEGINNING OF STG CAA.                      
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
AMS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 291500  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
900 AM PST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
LITTLE SURFACE FORCING EVIDENT IN WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN CA            
THIS MORNING...WITH PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG PACIFIC                        
NORTHWEST/VANCOUVER COASTLINE UNDER CLASSIC COUPLED JET STREAK                  
PATTERN. IN FACT..HAVE YET TO SEE ANY PRESSURE FALLS OF NOTE SOUTH OF           
THE OREGON BORDER. THESE LIGHT WINDS TOGETHER WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD            
COVER WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO PERSIST PAST NOON TODAY. IF                      
PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SLOWS...WILL BE LOOKING AT            
ANOTHER DAY LIKE FRIDAY IN THE LOWER VALLEY...WHERE FOG REFORMS                 
RAPIDLY WITH EVENING COOLING.                                                   
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME...ONLY CHANGE WOULD BE TO RAISE INITIAL SNOW            
LEVELS OVER THE SIERRA/SOUTHERN CASCADES AND SLOW THE LOWERING OF               
SAID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
PLOTTED FOR THE SIERRA BOTH INDICATE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 8000              
FEET TODAY...FALLING ONLY TO 6000-7000 FEET THIS EVENING. MOST                  
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR..AS THE FLOW VEERS               
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING           
HOURS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FEET. THUS...THE NEW 24 HOUR CHANGE IS                  
COVERED WELL IN WSW. SJC                                                        
.STO...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT...FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA                 
       COUNTY INCLUDING BURNEY BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUNTAINS OF              
       NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 291731  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
300 PM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
CLD SURG OF AIR DWN LM THIS AFTN HAS STRTD LK SNW IN NWRN IN. VPZ               
RTPNG SNW ATTM WITH SAT/88D IMGRY INDC ANUDR BND BTWN GYY AND VPZ.              
SNW BND ASSOCD WITH N-S SFC RDG ALNG MS RVR. STIL SUM DIFFS IN HNDLG            
MVMT OF HI AND ULTMATLY END OF SNW IN NWRN IN AND SCT CLDS IN CHI.              
NGM APPRS TO BE ODD MAN OUT. ETA/AVN/RUC MV CNTR OF HI TO VCNTY UIN             
BY 06Z SO THAT SFC WNDS RMN NWLY AND KP SNW AND CLDS TO E OF CHI BUT            
IN ERN CTYS IN CWA. BY TUES AM RDG LN NEWD OVR LM WIL PUT END TO SNW.           
AFTR CLD NITE WITH TMPS INTO TEENS SLY FLO TUE WILL PSH MAXS BCK TO             
NR SNSL MRK. DP TROF OFF E CST SLOES EWD MVMT OF H5 RDG AND POSTPNS             
ARVL OF NXT WX SYS TO LT IN WK.                                                 
MOS GDNC CLS AND IN LN WITH CURNT FCSTS.                                        
.CHI...NONE                                                                     
SOMREK                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 292041  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
247 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
LATEST SAT AND 18Z SFC DATA SHOW SW TROF ROTATING ACRS LWR MI WITH              
SFC TROF REFLECTION ALG ORD TO DAY LINE. SC/LK EFFECT SNSH DVLPG                
IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS FTR AS CAA INTENSIFIES. KIWX REF LOOP                    
INDICATING NR 35 DBZ ECHOES ALG MKG TO SBN LINE. RUC MODEL ALG                  
WITH UW AND LAST EVENING MM5 RUN ALL POINTING TO SHORE PARALLEL SNOW            
BAND PERSISTING ALG E SHORE OF LM FOR BETTER PART OF TONIGHT.                   
ALREADY SOME LOCALES IN SW MI/NW IN DOWN TO 1/4SM +SN AT TIMES.                 
12Z MODELS CONT AGREEABLE TREND WITH SYN FTRS THRU FCST PD. PRIMARY             
ISSUE OVERNIGHT ARE POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS ACRS LAPORTE...BERRIEN AND            
ST JOE IND COUNTIES. WILL RELY ON RUC/UW/MM5 IN SHORT TERM AND                  
ETA/AVN BLEND AFT THAT. LK EFFECT PROGGED TO SHUT OFF AS LOW LVL                
FLW BEGINS TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC BY 12Z TUE BUT UNTIL THEN PERSISTENT            
CVRG PROGGED FM MKG TO SBN THRU 09Z. DROPPING TEMPS AFT SS WILL MAKE            
ROADS MESSY AND FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH XPC GENERAL ACCUMS OF 2-3               
INCHES WITH LOCAL 4 WILL THEN NEED TO HOIST ADVY FOR BERRIEN...                 
LAPORTE...ST JOE IN. FOR TUE...FEEL LK EFFECT CLDS TO HOLD IN BETTER            
PART OF DAY PER TIME HGT CROSS SECTIONS WHICH INDICATE TRAPPED MOIST            
UNDER DROPPING INVERSION. IN ADDITION VRY WK FLW UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS           
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY MIXING TO SPEAK OF AND WILL THEREFORE PLAY IT              
PESSIMISTIC. AS SFC RIDGE WORKS E ACRS FA TUE...ROBUST WAA BEGINS TUE           
NIGHT AND CONTS WED. LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MID LVL CLD DVLPMT IN                 
ASSOCD/W STRONG WAA IN 850-700MB LYR WED WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING ABV             
0. SUBSTANTIAL MIXING PROGGED AS WELL AND TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY            
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLD CVR. THERMAL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO EARLY            
PART OF THE EXTDD AS PROGRESSIVE EPAC TROF THIS AM MARCHES E INTO               
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MED RANGE MODELS CONT TO DISPLAY SIG                   
DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD DICTATE WKNG           
LEAD SW TO AFFECT AREA LATE THU-FRI WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG SYS               
SAT-SUN TIME FRAME DEPENDENT UPON HOW SYS EVOLVES/TRACKS. WIL BEAR              
WATCHING.                                                                       
GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE FIRST HALF WITH NGM SOMEWHAT COOLER LTR HALF.              
WILL SIDE AGAIN WITH FAN AS IT HAS NOT DONE TOO BAD LATELY. WORK                
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
.IWX...LE SNOW ADVY TONIGHT FOR MIZ077...INZ003>004.                            
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIND 291930  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1115 AM MST (1215 PM CST) MON NOV 29 1999                                       
WL HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLD COVER BASED ON LATEST              
SATL TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/MESOETA/ETA. CLEARING OF STRATUS IS                  
OCCURRING FM SE TO NW WITH LTL TO NO CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVR THE               
NW HALF OF CWFA. FOG IS EVEN HANGING ON STILL IN NW HALF AS WELL.               
THIS A LTL DIFFERENT FM CURRENT PACKAGE. SE PTN OF CWFA LOOKS IN                
GOOD SHAPE SO WL MAKE LTL IF ANY CHANGE THERE WHERE WARMEST TEMPS AND           
MOST SUN WL BE. SO WL HAVE BCMG MSUNNY SE. THEN WL HAVE FOG EARLY               
AND BCMG PTSUN TO MCLDY NRN AND WRN SECTIONS AND LWR TEMPS ANYWHERE             
FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES.                                                           
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGLD 290914  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS                                           
1205 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
...UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS / DECREASE SNOW SHOWER TO FLURRIES            
GRR AREA...                                                                     
SHORE PARALLEL BAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS EVENT AS OF NOON                 
TODAY.  BASED ON MSAS DATA SHOWING CONVERGENCE MOSTLY OVER LK MI AND            
HIGHEST SFC DWPTS NEAR LAKE SHORE...PLUS NEW ETA/RUC SHOWING SFC TO             
850 MOISTURE HIGHEST RH STAYING WITHIN 70 MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE               
AND FACT THAT NOT MUCH DEVELOPING EAST OF US-131... HAD DECIDED TO              
DECREASE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES I-96 SOUTH... AND US-131            
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER 700 MOISTURE OVER NW               
LWR MI AND THAT MATCHES BETTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA BUT            
THAT DOES NOT GET INTO GRR CWA.  EVEN SO... CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SCT            
SNOW SHOWERS N OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON AWIPS              
88D MOSAIC.                                                                     
BASED ON PHONE CALLS TO AREAS ALONG LAKE SHORE THAT HAVE HAD 35DBZ              
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD... SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS SO FAR.  SO WILL              
KEEP THE LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE             
SHORE AREAS.  GROUND TO WARM YET... AND SNOW BAND IS MOSTLY OFF                 
SHORE ANYWAY.                                                                   
INCREASED HIGH TO 35 TO 40 OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA SINCE MOST TEMPS IN              
THE 35 TO 37 RANGE AT NOON... SO 35 TO 40 SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN                  
DEVELOPING MDT CU AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM N AT THE SFC.                   
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 291626  mi                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1025 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
UPDATED ZNS TO CLEAN UP WORDING FOR FOG. PATCHY FG REMAINING ACROSS             
NRN ZNS AND WILL HANDLE WITH NOWS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF. WENT MOSTLY               
SUNNY THIS AFTN AS SATL SHOWS LITTLE IN WAY OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM. 15Z             
RUC BRINGS WINDS TO S/SE ACROSS FA THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH CENTER MVS             
SE INTO OH VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 291604 AMD  tx