EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
915 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSAPEARED FROM RADAR ATTM AS FNT/TROF BNDRY                 
ACROSS N FL BEGINS TO WASH OUT. RUC/18Z ETA SHOW BEST LOW LEVEL                 
FORCING IN FORM OF THETA-E ADV/Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND                         
FRONTOGENESIS HAS SHIFTED EAST AND WEAKENED. THIS COINCIDES WELL                
WITH MDLS SHOWING RAPID DECREASE IN SIZE OF MOISTURE BAND AHEAD OF THE          
BNDRY. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT ALSO INDICATED TO SHEAR OUT AND BE SE OF             
AREA ARND MIDNIGHT. RESULT IS NO SUPPORT FOR OVERNIGHT POPS AND PLAN            
TO REMOVE THEM FROM FCST. VRBL AMTS OF CLOUDS SHOULD THIN TO PARTLY             
CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.                                                               
MARINE...WINDS HAVE YET TO VEER BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO N OF THE              
CAPE TOWARDS MORNING. FCST HANDLES THIS WELL.                                   
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN                                                        
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KELLY                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                     
CURRENTLY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT MAKING PROGRESS SWD APPROX            
ALONG A LHW-AYS-TLH LINE. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS CURRENTLY S OF A                  
SGJ-STARKE-40J LINE WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE EXISTS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN VICINITY OF FRONT AND NWD            
TO VDI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE ERODING WITH                 
LOW LEVEL MIXING AND AFTERNOON HEATING. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL                  
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BUT FEELING IS              
WILL NOT GET MUCH WITH INCREASING STABILITY AND MOISTURE PUSHING                
FARTHER S. MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING            
THROUGH THE REGION MAKING IT TO JAX BY ABOUT 00-02Z. WILL PROBABLY              
CUT BACK POPS BY AROUND 10 PERCENT FOR THE ZONES AS THE FRONT                   
CONTINUES SAGGING S. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL DYNAMICS DO NOT LOOK               
THAT FAVORABLE NOW. MESO-ETA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HOWEVER DO SHOW            
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AL AND GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS               
COULD HELP TO AID SOME LIFT BUT LOOKS WEAK AND IS PERHAPS TOO FAR N.            
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED MOIST ATM WITH PWATER 2.1 INCHES AND               
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE 2400 J/KG AND KI 32 AND CONVECTIVE TEMP NEAR              
82. THEREFORE LEAVING IN MENTION OF TSTMS PROBABLY A GOOD CALL...               
ESPECIALLY THE FL CWA.                                                          
MARINE...PREDOMINATE W FLOW OVER THE WATERS AT THIS TIME. GRAYS REEF            
HAS GRADUALLY COME DOWN BELOW 15 KT FOR THE PAST 3-4 HRS. MINOR                 
ADJUSTMENTS ANTICIPATED WITH WIND AND SEAS.                                     
.JAX...                                                                         
.GA...NONE                                                                      
.FL...NONE                                                                      
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                     
DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO NORTH GA AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILTER              
INTO CENTRAL GA. ONLY AREA STILL REMAINING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL             
BE THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS             
THERE. OTHERWISE VERY DRY FROM H7 AND UP. MOISTURE REMAINS AT H8 AND            
THIS WILL ALSO DRY OUT...HOWEVER FEEL CU WILL DEVELOP WITH SURFACE              
HEATING. WINDS WILL GO AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AT PER RUC.                      
.ATL...NONE                                                                     
17                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
915 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
HI PRES WL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FM THE W. BUT IT NOW APPEARS LOOKING            
AT NEW RUC THAT LGT NW WINDS WL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NGT.                       
RUC ALSO DOING A GOOD JOB IN HANDLING VORT MOVG INTO WV AND THIS IS             
GENERATING SOME MID AND HI CLDS WHICH WL WORK ACRS THE AREA TNGT. WL            
CONTINUE A PC FCST. WL UP TEMPS A LITTLE TNGT WITH MORE CLDS AND LGT            
NW WINDS.                                                                       
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH REST OF TONIGHT.           
CDFNT STRETCHING FM WINNEPEG TO SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY WILL EDGE S                
OVRNGT. SCT SHRA/TSRA CONT TO BE GENERATED IN AREA OF STRONG Q-VEC              
CNVRGNC OVR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN. RUC INDICATES THAT OVRNGT THIS AREA            
WILL EDGE S INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVR WRN UP BY 06Z AND OVR REST OF            
CWA BY 12Z. LLJ WILL CONT TO BRING WRM MOIST AIR INTO UPR GREAT                 
LAKES REGION INCREASING MEAN 1000-500MB RH TO >70PCT. CAN                       
RADARS...KMQT 88D AND KDLH 88D SHOWING SHRA AND TSRA OVR WRN LAKE               
SUPERIOR. WILL KEEP CHC OF SHRA/TSRA IN ALL ZONE FOR OVRNGT.                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
824 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
SHORTTERM FORECAST CHALLENGE...IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT.               
WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NORTH OF MINNESOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER                
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCT TSRA THIS EVENING.  TSRA WERE FIRING ALONG             
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INVOF OF BOUNDARY IN             
THE LOWER 60S AND NORTH OF THE BORDER IN THE 40S IN SOME SPOTS.  THE            
LATEST RUC MODEL 23Z ALSO INDICATED SFC CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL             
DIVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ONE THIRD OF MINNESOTA.  AS            
PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN BOTH                
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. MY CONCERN IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THESE            
STORMS PROPAGATE. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS FIELD THROUGH 12Z                       
SATURDAY...SHOW NORTH/SOUTH...FAIRLY GOOD THICKNESS DIFFUENCE ACROSS            
THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD.  HAVE OPTED TO MENTION AT LEAST A 20               
PERCENT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVERNIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.                          
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
JVM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
935 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH WEST              
CENTRAL MN THIS AM.  12Z RUC MOVES THIS SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST                
MINNESOTA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND DROPS QPF.  WILL ADD SOME POPS TO               
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF CWA.  ACCAS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWERS TWO                 
DISTINCT AREAS AFFECTING CWA.  ONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF                          
ALEXANDRIA...AND OTHER EAST OF KMPX.  RADAR INDICATES SOME HIGHER               
DBZ ASSOCIATED MOVING TOWARD KEAU.  12Z RUC/00Z ETA INDICATES BEST              
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA.  TEMPERATURE             
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.                                                      
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 DWE                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                     
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE               
WITH OBSERVED ELEVATED CAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AT OUN AT 00Z. CAP IS            
WEAK MOST PLACES AS WELL EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. NOTICEABLE              
925-850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OBSERVED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES              
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. AM CONCERNED THAT WITH RECENT              
RUC GUIDANCE FOLLOWING PROGS FROM 12Z ETA/NGM/AVN GUIDANCE OF                   
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING 925-850 MB WINDS BETWEEN 06-12Z...ENOUGH              
LIFT MAY BE AVAILABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED               
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY POPS ARE ONLY IN OVERNIGHT NEAR THE RED                   
RIVER...WHICH STILL APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVING THE CONSTANT FLOW            
OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND NEW                         
MEXICO...DEEPER MOISTURE...AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF            
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.                                                            
WILL THINK ABOUT ADDING POPS FARTHER NORTH...POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH              
AS KINGFISHER AND STILLWATER. SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL                   
OKLAHOMA...A RESULT OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY BE TOO MUCH             
FOR WEAK LIFT TO OVERCOME THERE...SO WILL NOT ADD POPS THAT FAR                 
NORTH IF POPS ARE ADDED AT ALL.                                                 
UPDATES TO BE OUT SHORTLY...                                                    
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
920 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN OHIO BEING PICKED UP WELL BY BOTH MESO-ETA             
AND RUC. MESO-ETA HAS IT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT MORNING.              
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO OUR MD AND DE ZONES             
TOWARD MORNING AND WILL GO WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST THERE. EVEN             
WITH SOME LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN PA RESULTING IN SOME HIGH                      
CLOUDS...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND WILL THEREFORE            
CONTINUE THE CLEAR FORECAST OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD RADATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE               
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES...SO WILL DROP SOME TEMPS.           
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                    
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
JAQ/MPD                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
900 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
DEW POINTS RUNNING 56 TO 64...WITH 58 AT AVL...AND LOW 60S EXTREME E            
AND S. RUC SHOWS DEW POINTS RISING INTO LOWER 60S E OF MOUNTAINS                
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER PRESENT TREND IS A MIX OF RISES AND FALLS.               
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF CI CROSSING N GA AND                   
APPROACHING CHATTOOGA RIVER. BACK EDGE OF ANOTHER CI PATCH NOW AT               
SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BUT MORE CI AND EVEN SOME MID CLOUD ENTERNING NW              
TN. WILL RAISE NC MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES TO RELFECT DEEPER MOISTURE              
...AND BREAK OFF SC/GA MOUNTAINS FOR TRANSITION TO WARMER FOOTHILLS             
AND PIEDMONT. WILL RESIST URGE TO LOWER MINIMUMS IN FOOTHILLS DUE TO            
INVADING CLOUDS. WINDS VARIABLE AND WILL WORD AS LIGHT.                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
245 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2000                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE-- HOW LOW TO GO WITH RAIN CHANCES.                           
--CURRENTLY--                                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A STRONG VORT MAX ROUNDING BASE OF PROGRESSIVE          
UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER E COAST. JET AXIS STILL CUTS              
ACROSS TN VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOTED ON IR ON                   
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF JET JUST UPSTREAM FROM CWA. A STATIONARY E-W               
FRONT IS DRAPED CLOSE TO OUR COAST...WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING             
MODERATE NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON N SIDE OF BOUNDARY. LOCAL 00Z SOUNDINGS          
EVEN DRIER THAN FORECAST WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES NEAR OR JUST              
BELOW 1" AT TLH/BMX/FFC.                                                        
--FORECAST--                                                                    
NGM TIME SECTIONS SUGGESTS UPSTREAM HIGH CLOUDS WILL AFFECT CWA AT              
LEAST PART OF TODAY. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT LOW CLOUD/FOG THREAT            
THIS MORNING...SINCE WE HAD A DAY OF AMPLE SUN AND HEATING BETWEEN              
NOW AND OUR LAST EXTENSIVE RAIN. 03Z RUC ADVERTISES NLY FLOW BEHIND             
FRONT OVER OUR CWA TO S.                                                        
TODAY AGAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE N-NW MEAN FLOW GENERALLY LESS            
THAN 10 KTS BELOW 700 MB...WHICH IS A TYPE 8 REGIME FOR OUR LOCAL               
SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS MEANS LOW POPS FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES               
WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY DRY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXPECTED TODAY.              
CURRENT FORECASTS MENTION NO POPS. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR            
IS ABOUT 50%...SO WE ARE HESITANT TO OMIT POPS ALTOGETHER. WE WILL              
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY FOR IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES...AS WE DO             
NOT EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FAR INLAND WITH OPPOSING                 
SYNOPTIC FLOW. 00Z MM5 PROGS MESOLOW AND PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG                
FRONT OVER GULF S OF APALACHEE BAY AND THEN MOVE S. MM5 ALSO PROGS              
THE SEA BREEZE TO STAY WITHIN FL AND NOT GENERATE INLAND                        
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
FOR SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW FROM GULF SHOULD COMMENCE IN WAKE OF                   
EXITING UPPER SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD REPLENISH LOW-LEVEL                      
MOISTURE...SO WE COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS. FWC SHOWS ZERO POPS ACROSS               
THE BOARD...WHICH SEEMS DRASTIC. WILL AGAIN COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHT              
CHANCE POPS IN AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.                                            
MARINE - NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. EXPECT LIGHT WLY FLOW FOR OFFSHORE             
WATERS...AND WINDS INFLUENCED BY SEA BREEZE FOR NEARSHORE ZONES.                
FIRE WEATHER - NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.                                      
EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) - UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SPREAD E            
TO THE N OF CWA. BOTH MRF AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE WILL DRIFT W            
OVER CWA AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AND         
CLIMATOLOGY JUSTIFY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY NEAR              
CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPERATURES TOO.                                               
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH  093/069 093/068  2-2-                                                      
PFN  088/073 089/073  2-2-                                                      
DHN  092/071 092/070  -0-0                                                      
ABY  091/068 092/068  -0-0                                                      
VLD  093/067 093/067  1-1-                                                      
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
815 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                      
WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REMOVE WORDING OF                      
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. THE DIURNALLY             
DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE ALL DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.            
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY FROM SW KS TO EXTREME SRN             
MO...WITH A TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MCI ACROSS CENT MO                
TO SRN IL. IF THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN LATER TONIGHT THEN           
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SRN PARTS OF THE           
ILX FORECAST AREA...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SCOTT COUNTY TO CRAWFORD               
COUNTY...COULD BE ON THE NRN FRINGES OF THIS CONVECTION. LATEST RUC             
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER IN THE SRN              
PLAINS...WITH ONLY 15-20KTS IN MO/WRN IL. RUC DOES INDICATE THAT                
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN WCENT/SRN IL OVERNIGHT THOUGH.              
THUS...WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LATE NIGHT SHRA/TSRA IN                   
FORECAST FOR SRN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA. BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE TO              
DROP PRECIP CHANCES IN A FEW COUNTIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA            
(MACON...CUMBERLAND... CLARK).                                                  
SCATTERED CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE REST OF THE REGION...SO WILL         
STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LOWS AROUND 60.                                
.ILX...NONE                                                                     
$$                                                                              
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2000                                                      
00Z UPR AIR ANAL SHOWG 3H JET LIFTG OUT TAKING WI IT A CPL OF S/WVS.            
ONE WK S/WV IN SRN STREAM...STGR ONE IN NRN STREAM AND IS MR EVIDNT             
IN WTR VPR PIX. AT THE SFC HI PRES OVR MUCH OF SE AS BNDRY THAT MVD             
THRU AREA THU STL LINGERING OFFSHR. SUM MID AND HI LVL CLDS STL OVR             
ERN NC. WNDS OVR THE WTRS N AND NE AT LESS THAN 15 KTS.                         
RUC SHOWG MID AND UPR LVL MSTR MVING OUT OF THE AREA BY SR AND THIS             
IS SUPPORTED BY SAT TRENDS. RUC ALSO SHOWG A WV FRMG ON THE BNDRY               
OFFSHR THIS AM WHICH CUD BRING CSTL WNDS ARND MR TO THE NE AND INCRS            
THEM TO 20 KTS. WL KP AN EYE ON IT TO SEE IF THAT PANS OUT.                     
TROF OVR THE MS VLLY ATTM WL MV THRU ERN NC LTR THIS AFTN THRU SUN              
AM. AGAIN MDLS NOT GETTING TOO EXCITED ABT IT. 5H TEMPS DROP ARND 7             
DEGREES WI PSSG OF THIS TROF. 3H JET EXITG ERN NC THIS AFTN WHICH WL            
HELP INCRS UPR LVL DVRGNC. INSTBLTY INDICES NOT TOO IMPRSV THIS GO              
ARND...CAPES ONLY ARND 1000 WI LIS -3. MSTR LMTD TO LWR 250 MB. HWVR            
A FEW TSTMS POPPED ON SEABRZ FRI AFTN. WI UPR LVL SPPRT XPCTD THIS              
AFTN XPCT MR ACTVTY THAN FRI AFTN. NOT MUCH UPSTRM TO GET THINGS MVG            
SO WL CONT CHCS THRU TNGT AS UPR LVL SPPRT WL STILL BE HANGG ARND.              
XPCT GENERIC DAY MON AS WE SHUD BE UNDR INFLUENCE OF BERMUDA HI.                
LTST MED RANG MDLS SHOWG NXT SYS TO MV INTO OUR AREA WED. THIS WL               
TITEN THE SFC GRAD UP A BIT FOR PSBL SCA WED. OTHRWS WNDS WL BE                 
GNRLY LGT AND CONT FRM THE N AND NE WI THE XCPTN OF WHAT HAPPENS LTR            
THIS AM AS WV ON BNDRY DVLPS. TEMPS COOLR TDY AS TROF MVS THRU AND              
LGT NLY SFC WNDS CONT.                                                          
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
454 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2000                                                       
...UPDATE                                                                       
DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO CHC SRN ZNS FIRST PERIOD. SATL SHOWS CLOUD             
TOPS STILL COOLING WITH CONVECTION LIFT ENE OUT OF NM. SCT CONVECTION           
ALREADY GOING IN SE ZNS. LATEST RUC INDICATES LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP             
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN ZNS BY 18Z WITH AMA VAD SUPPORTING THIS WITH                 
VEERING WINDS.                                                                  
CONVECTION REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED IN WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME N OF RATHER AGED FNTL BOUNDARY                 
STRETCHING FM W-N TX. MID LEVEL SHEAR ZN HELPING INCREASE AREAL                 
COVERAGE THOUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE PROGD TO DRIFT SLOWLY E ALONG             
RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUN. EXPECT BEST CHC PRECIP TDY SE ZNS AND             
MAINLY EARLY. ANOTHER FLARE-UP NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT AS               
UNUSUALLY HIGH/DEEP AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS HIGH             
PLAINS. MAIN SHRTWV ENERGY TONIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PUSHED WELL N               
OF FA INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SO COVERAGE NOT AS GREAT TO S AND W THUS              
STILL ONLY 20 POPS FOR SRN ZNS. GREAT WARMUP FCST BY MODELS PAST                
COUPLE RUNS YET TO MATERIALIZE SO WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH OR                 
SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...EXCEPTION WILL BE N CNTRL ZNS WHERE               
WARMER TEMPS TYPICALLY OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN.                                   
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY E AND N ON SUN. THIS SHOULD             
FINALLY HELP TO DRY AT LEAST MID LEVELS SOME AS MODELS HV                       
INDICATED. WEAK SFC TROUGH ALSO FCST TO SLIDE E INTO WRN ZNS WITH               
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT EARLY ON SUN. WILL KEEP 20 POPS ALL              
ZNS SUN NIGHT AS HIGH SFC INSTABILITY REMAINS PRESENT.                          
IN EXTENDED...                                                                  
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS LNGWV TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG W              
COAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS N INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. WEAKENING                  
MONSOONAL FLOW COULD STILL BE A FACTOR SO WILL NOT PULL ANY POPS                
OUT OF EXTENDED YET.                                                            
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2000                                                     
LEE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. MOISTURE              
AMOUNTS HAVE PRETTY MUCH REACHED SEASONAL HIGH LEVELS FOR THIS TIME             
OF YEAR. LATEST RUC INDICATES SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE                    
PANHANDLES ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY            
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE A 20 POP             
FOR THE AMARILLO AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST PERIOD. HAVE            
ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A CAT AREA WIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES.              
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SLATTERY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1005 AM SAT JUL 1 2000                                                          
THE MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER                
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CAPE AND JACKSONVILLE SOUNDINGS WERE CAPPED AT               
AROUND 6000 AND 7000 FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT TO                
BREAK THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGING WEST TO EAST FLOW                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SLOWLY SHIFTS              
SOUTH DURING THE DAY. EXCEPT FOR SOME WORDING CHANGES...CURRENT                 
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN              
FOUR COUNTIES.                                                                  
MARINE...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IN SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE               
NORTHEAST. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEXT RUC UPDATE BEFORE                 
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.                             
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER                                                          
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOTTMAN                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
944 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 2000                                                       
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY                
SKIES TODAY HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW SCATTERED INSTABILITY            
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL             
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST                
LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.                                               
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:                                                           
CONCERN WILL BE PSBL TSRA FOR NRN/WRN ME. WRKZFP SHIPPED.                       
12Z CAR SNDG ALREADY UNSTABLE W/LI OF -3 & CAPE OF 850 J/KG. MODIFIED           
SNDG FM AWIPS GIVES 1200 J/KG W/LI NR -4. KIS NR 25 W/TTS OF 50.                
WBZ 7900'. WON/T TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER TSRA AS CONVECTIVE TEMP ARND              
68F. ANY TSRA THAT DO DVLP COULD DROP SOME HAIL/HVY RA.                         
VIS SATL IMAGERY HAD LOTS OF ST HANGING TUFF OVER ZNS2,5-6 W/THE                
REST OF THE CWFA CLRG OUT...EXCEPT ALG THE CST WHR ST/FG HOLDING ON.            
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE ST/FG. FAIRLY STG VORT MAX MOVG               
ACRS CNTL ME ATTM PER WV IMAGERY. LATEST RUC/06Z MEOS-ETA SHOW THIS             
FTRE MOVG INTO NB, CAN BY MID-AFTN. LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWED THETA               
E/MSTR GRDNT EXTENDING FM ACRS NRN ZNS. INSOLATION COUPLED W/THESE              
AXIS' + VORT LOBE WILL BE FOCUS FOR ANY TSRA. H5 TEMPS ARND -18C.               
INHIBITING FACTOR IS SOME "MINOR" WARMING PROGGED TO OCCUR THRU THE             
COLUMN AFT 18Z. ATTM...WILL LEAVE SML POP IN FOR NRN ZNS AS SHRA/TSRA           
COULD GO BEFORE THIS OCCURS.                                                    
FOR TEMPS...PRVS TEMPS LOOK IN FINE SHAPE. NO CHGS FORESEEN.                    
COASTAL WATERS:                                                                 
ONLY CHG THAT MAY BE NEEDED WILL BE TO REMOVE MNTN OF FOG. WILL SEE             
AFT FURTHER INFO.                                                               
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
JOE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1025 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2000                                                     
UPDATED ALL AREAS TO INCREASE TEMPS A BIT AND ADD CHANCE OF LATE                
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH BASED ON LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS AND                
GOES SOUNDER PRODUCTS. RUC SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW WARMER TEMPS                
THAN PREVIOUS FCST...NEAR 100 S-CNTL SD AND MID-UPR 90S ELSEWHERE               
ACROSS CWA. NO ABR SOUNDING THIS MORNING...SO HARD TO FULLY JUDGE               
PROGGED SOUNDINGS...BUT LATEST ROUND OF RUC SOUNDINGS SEEMS TO PICK             
UP ON HIGHER DEW POINTS...NOW IN LOWER 60S MOST OF CWA...COMPARED               
TO PREVIOUS SET OF RUC SOUNDINGS. THIS SAID...LOOKS LIKE CAP/CINH               
ERODES MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST CAPES ACROSS AREA             
RANGE FROM AROUND 1200 J/KG AROUND MBG TO 2300 AROUND ABR BY 21Z                
WITH LITTLE OR NO CINH LEFT. HOWEVER...H7 TEMPS +10 TO                          
+12C...WARMEST S-CNTL...MAY HELP TO INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION                
THERE. GOES SOUNDER DATA GENERALLY SUPPORTS ADDITION OF POPS THIS               
AFTN...INDICATING PW PLUME MOVING UP INTO CNTL-E SD...ALONG WITH                
DESTABILIAZATION TREND SEEN IN 4-HR TIME LAPSE OF GOES LI.                      
ADDITIONALLY...SPC SWODY1 DISCUSSION HITS ON ALL THESE ELEMENTS AND             
MORE...SUGGESTING DECENT POSSIBILITY OF AFTN CONVECTION...WITH SLT              
RISK OF SVR...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO MCS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS                
CONVECTION MOVES EAST.                                                          
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
1124 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2000                                                      
CONVECTION STILL LINGERING OVER MAINLY EAST/NORTHEAST CWA AS IT                 
DRIFTS NORTHEAST.  12Z RUC INDICATES WEAK SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN                  
DRAPED NEAR NORTHERN ZONES...AND WITH UNSTABLE...MOIST...AND UNCAPPED           
12Z KMAF SOUNDING WILL LEAVE POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS IN GOING                    
FORECAST.  WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY TO TWEAK SKY COVER AND WINDS.               
WILL TREND SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DOWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN           
HALF OF CWA.  CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE...AND MOST LOCATIONS            
OVER NORTHERN CWA SHOULD NOT WARM AS MUCH DUE TO EVAPORATIVE                    
PROCESSES.                                                                      
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
AKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
859 AM CDT SAT JUL 1 2000                                                       
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. HIGHER POPS TO THE NE IN CLOSER                     
PROXIMITY TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS               
CONVECTION. LATEST RUC INDICATING INCREASED DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THIS          
SAME AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  KLCH AND KFTW SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST PW            
2.1 AND 2.12 AND WITH THE LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING OVER SMITH AND RUSK             
COUNTIES WILL LET POPS IN PACKAGE STAND...WILL NUDGE UP MAX AT IAH              
TO 94 OR 95 AFTER LOOKING AT THE THICKNESS TRENDS THE LAST FEW DAYS             
AND FCST THICKNESSES AND CURRENT SOUNDINGS.  MARINE ON TRACK AS WELL.           
NOTE...THE CLIMATE ISSUANCE THIS MORNING HAD THE NEW REQUIRED FORMAT.           
ALSO...PREV SHIFT ISSUED A PNSHOU DESCRIBING THE CLIMATE NUMBERS FOR            
THE FIRST HALF OF 2000.                                                         
.KHGX...NONE.                                                                   
45/41/DO                                                                        
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 094/074 093/074 093 222 (323 POPS NE)                                    
IAH BB 095/074 093/075 093 222                                                  
GLS BB 089/080 089/080 089 212                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1017 AM EDT SAT JUL 1 2000                                                      
HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STORM SYS              
TRACKS ACRS NORTHERN QUE. UPR L/W TROF TO SLIDE ACRS THE FA TODAY AS            
WELL. CF ASSOCIATED WITH QUE STORM SYS TO DROP DOWN ACRS                        
ONT/QUE/NORTHERN GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE.                               
09Z RUC SHOWS A WESTERLY SFC FLOW PERSISTING TODAY AT AROUND 10                 
KTS...EXCEPT SW WIND AT 10-15 KTS IN THE ST LAW VLY. RUC HAS TEMPS              
GETTING UP INTO THE M70S-L80S BY 21Z TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE              
L-M80S. RUC HAS CAPES OF 200-700 J/KG IN THE ST LAW VLY BY BETWEEN              
18-21Z TODAY. RUC NOT GENERATING MUCH...IF ANY...ANY PCPN IN THIS               
AREA THOUGH. NOTED SPC HAS NORTHERN TIER ZONES IN GEN TSTM OUTLOOK              
TODAY. WINDEX VALUES >50 KTS TODAY BUT SHEAR VALUES WEAK (10-15 M/S             
AT BEST). SHEAR TO BE STRONGER IN ONT/QUE WHERE H85 JET TO BE                   
LOCATED. BUFCAN/SAT PIX SHOW AN AREA OF SHRA DROPPING DOWN ACRS                 
CENTRAL ONT ATTM. TIMING THIS FEATURE HAS IT AFFECTING THE ST LAW VLY           
AFTER 19Z AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE WESTERN CHAMP VLY (IF IT              
HOLDS TOGETHER) BY 22Z. LAPS CAPES ARE AROUND 400 J/KG IN THE ST LAW            
VLY ATTM...SO APPEARS THAT SOME SHRA (POSSIBLY A TSRA) MIGHT AFFECT             
THE ST LAW VLY LATER TODAY. WITH KTYX 88D STILL DOWN UFN...WILL BE              
HARD TO MONITOR ANY PCPN THAT DEVELOPS THOUGH.                                  
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN HI THRU 06Z TONITE ACRS THE FA. WK H85            
WAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. SOME AMT OF LOW-LVL                  
MOISTURE...BUT NO DEEPER MOISTURE...TO BE AROUND THE FA TODAY. WK H5            
LOBE OF VORTICITY TO MOVE ACRS ONT/QUE TODAY WITH BEST DYNAMIX TO               
STAY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA TODAY (MAYBE CLIPPING THE ST LAW VLY                
TONITE?). HOWEVER...00Z NGM SHOWS H7-H5 DIFF VORTICITY ADVECTION TO             
TAKE PLACE ACRS NORTHERN NY TODAY.                                              
HAVE ADDED A LOW CHC OF A SHRA/TSRA TO THE ST LAW FOR TODAY...JUST              
TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO HI TEMP FORECAST TODAY             
BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS. ALL OTHER CHANGES TO ZONES COSMETIC.               
WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS AND                
LAMP DATA.                                                                      
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt