####018005966####
FXUS61 KCLE 160820
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
320 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE TO OHIO TONIGHT AND OFF THE 
EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT 
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING...AND 
LINGERING...AND LINGERING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD EAST 
TODAY BUT UNTIL THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW 
SHOWERS/FLURRIES. SNOW IS FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT/INSTABILITY... 
POCKETS OF AVBL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...AND SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 
LAKES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRYING INCREASES. BUFKIT SHOWS ENOUGH DRYING AND LOWERING INVERSION 
AND EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END OR SLIDE OFF TO THE 
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT AS MUCH SNOW AS YESTERDAY AS 
TROUGH ALOFT IS PULLING OUT BUT COULD STILL BE SMALL LOCAL 
ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH...ALTHOUGH WILL MONITOR 
THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY COMING OFF CENTRAL LAKE ERIE WHERE THERE IS 
SOME OPEN WATER. MAX TEMP GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR AND LOOKS 
REASONABLE... MAY TWEAK IT A DEGREE OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. SHOULD BE GOOD RADIATIONAL 
COOLING CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEING TO INCREASE 
LATER. WILL BE COLDEST WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND INLAND FROM 
THE LAKE. GFS/MAV MIN TEMP GUIDANCE IS THE COLDEST OF THE GUIDANCE 
TONIGHT AND FORECAST WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN 
GUIDANCE. SOUTH FLOW WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE A 
DECENT DAY...NOT AS SUNNY AS IT COULD BE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE. MODELS ARE TYPICALLY TOO FAST WITH THE WARM UP IN THIS 
KIND OF PATTERN AND FORECAST WILL BE A CATEGORY OR TWO UNDER MAX 
TEMP GUIDANCE. 

MOST MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SURFACE LOW FOR 
WEDNESDAY CROSSING LOWER MI INTO ONTARIO  NAM/WRF LOOKS LOST WITH 
SURFACE LOW SO FAR SOUTH. THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS TEND TO TRACK TOWARD 
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND STRENGTH OF SURFACE LOW WOULD SUGGEST THAT 
QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR WOULD GET WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW CENTER. 

PCPN WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT QUICKLY TUE NIGHT THOUGH AND WILL 
PROBABLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. MY FIRST INSTINCT WAS THAT IT 
MIGHT BE A FREEZING RAIN SITUATION AND THERE MAY WELL BE SOME 
LOCALIZED FZRA...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING 
UNIFORMLY. PCPN WOULD LIKELY START AS SNOW TUE NIGHT AND MAY WELL 
JUST END WED MORNING AS DRY SLOT AND WARM SECTOR PUSH NORTHWARD. 
MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE (RELATIVELY SPEAKING FOR 
FEBRUARY) BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING A CHANCE OF 
TSTORMS. 

WRAP AROUND PCPN/TROUGH ALOFT TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND 
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
SLIDE BACK BELOW NORMAL AS SOME ARCTIC AIR IS TAPPED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST GFS COMING INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF...WHICH MOVES LOW 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  ENSEMBLES IS FASTER AND 
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  LOW INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING 
WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS...BUT BOTH HAVE LONG 
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH W-NW FLOW OFF LAKE.  WITH 850 
TEMPS OF -14C TO -17C AND OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME 
LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. 

MODELS DIVERGE FOR SATURDAY FORECAST.  GFS MOVES LOW ACROSS CENTRAL 
OHIO WHILE ECMWF HAS A WEAKER LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...AND THE 
ENSEMBLES HAVE AN OPEN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  TIMING OF 
NEXT RIDGE A LITTLE IN DOUBT.  BY 00Z MONDAY ENSEMBLE HAS THE RIDGE 
ON THE OH/PA BORDER...THE LATEST GFS HAS THE RIDGE NEAR THE IL/IN 
BORDER AND THE ECMWF HAS IT IN BETWEEN.  FOR MY FORECAST LEANED 
TOWARD THE FASTER ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MOST OF
THE IMPACT EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR KCLE...KCAK...KERI AND KYNG. THESE
LOCATIONS WILL ALSO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND NEAR THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. 

SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ITS SLOW BUILD INTO
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...LOOKS LIKE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS STATES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE 
WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN ALTHOUGH PCPN COULD START AS SNOW OR
PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING RAIN. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP
BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH NON VFR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES. ON THE LAKE AND THEN 
THAT WILL CHANGE AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS THE 
LOWER/CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS STILL NOT 
IN AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS 
TIME JUST KEPT THE WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE 
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE GALE.

LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE 
LAKE AND THEN ANOTHER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS 
LIKE THE WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD STAY BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB



####018006742####
FXUS62 KRAH 160820
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY... WILL BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WAS SLOW TO OCCUR DUE 
TO DRIER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. REPORTS OF SNOW HAVE BEEN 
SLOW TO TAKE PLACE DUE TO THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AT 
THE SURFACE AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WET BULB TEMPERATURES 
INDICATE THE BEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH... 
WHERE READINGS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THIS WAS EVIDENT 
WHEN ROANOKE RAPIDS REPORTED SNOW AT 0724Z. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE 
... PWAT VALUES .25 TO .30... THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW 
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LOW. ANY SNOW THAT DOES REACH THE GROUND 
SHOULD MELT SINCE 200 AM GROUND/SOIL TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE 
40S. SINCE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 
FREEZING (WET BULB TEMPS) HAVE CHANGED THE ALL SNOW FORECAST TO RAIN 
MIXED WITH SOME SNOW. WEATHER TAP BACKS THIS THINKING UP FOR THE 
MOST PART AS RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVES 
EAST DURING THE MORNING... THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA 
SHOULD END BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... CLOUDS 
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH CLEAR SKIES ON TAP FOR 
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 10 TO 20 
MPH... DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 8 MPH FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 50 IN THE 
SOUTHEAST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN BRINGING A
COLD DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER NC MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE N-NW
WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO A HARD FREEZE. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
MID 20S EXCEPT SOME LOWER 20S IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT... AND
UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MET GUIDANCE IN
THE 47-51 RANGE EXPECTED.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST OF A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN EVENT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER OUR REGION. A MAIN
STORM TRACK FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES STATES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND IS FORECAST. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A DEVELOPING H85 TO SURFACE WARM FRONT... THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NNE THROUGH CENTRAL NC WEDNESDAY... SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS.
THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
(WHICH HAS BEEN SPEEDING UP IN THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS). THE FRONT
IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 BY 12Z THURSDAY...
CUTTING OFF THE RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE...
WE WILL RAISE THE POP TO LIKELY WEDNESDAY... AND CONTINUE THE
LIKELY POP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QPF ON
THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO POSSIBLY 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE (THE NAM
SUGGESTS LESSER AMOUNTS). THIS COULD BE THE FIRST GOOD SOAKING IN
SEVERAL WEEKS. 

THE TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RISE TOWARD DAYBREAK... AS
THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER... AND THE LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW
INCREASES WITH THE WARM FRONTAL APPROACH. LOWS ABOVE MOS WILL BE
FORECAST (MID TO UPPER 30S)... WITH RISING TEMPS POSSIBLE LATE. NO
POP TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SHOULD BE SHORT OF GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIEDMONT
WHERE THE WARM FRONT MAY LINGER LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT WITH
HYBRID DAMMING POTENTIAL INTO WED EVENING. HIGHS 48 NW RANGING
INTO THE LOWER 60S SE. 

THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE H85 FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES WESTERLY... AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S... EXCEPT
SOME 50S SE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

FOR THURSDAY... IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY... AND EVEN IF IT LINGERS BACK TO THE WEST FOR A
FEW HOURS... THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL EAST (ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH). THEREFORE... NO POP THURSDAY AFTER 12Z... WITH CLEARING
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL REACH THE 50S TO LOWER 60S NW TO SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR CAN BE
EXPECTED. IT WILL BE WINDY THURSDAY EVENING... WITH DIMINISHING
WIND OVERNIGHT. LOWS 25-30. FRIDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND CHILLY WITH
HIGHS 50-55. 

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND CHILLY. DISTURBANCES 
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SE 
CANADA WILL MAY BECOME A NUISANCE FOR CENTRAL NC. AT THIS TIME...IT 
APPEARS THAT ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE LATE 
SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 
EXPECTED IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL 
NORTH CAROLINA IS NIL AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. 
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF IT AND 
LOOKS DRY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS 
SATURDAY... LOWS 25-32. HIGHS 50-55. 

DRY COLD AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY. LOWS AGAIN WILL BE IN
THE 20S... WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SE. 
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM...

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. VISIBILITIES 
MVFR OR BETTER WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WARM 
WITH NEAR SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES MID 30S TO MID 40S AT 2 AM. 

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BY 6 AM  AND 
AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES BY MID MORNING. CEILINGS DISSIPATE FROM 
WEST TO EAST UNDER A NORTHWEST BREEZE. 

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL 
LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. 

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RHJ
NEAR TERM...RHJ
SHORT TERM..PWB





####018011527####
FXUS62 KTAE 160820
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UNAMPLIFIED UPPER AIR 
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW OUT WEST IS 
DOMINATED BY MOTION AROUND A DOMINANT CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING JUST OFF 
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. FAST MOVING FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF 
THIS UPPER LOW BECOMES DIFFLUENT IN NATURE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN STATES...WITH ONE STREAM MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST STATES AND ANOTHER MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN 
TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT IS A MESSY LONGWAVE RIDGE 
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. FLOW THEN DIVE BACK 
INTO LONGWAVE RIDING THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE 
NATION. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
EASTERN TROUGH. 

AT THE SURFACE...VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT 
BROUGHT THE THE CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS TO THE REGION 
ON SUNDAY IS NOW EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SKIES HAVE BEEN 
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR 
FILTERING IN FROM AL/MS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. EASTERN U.S. TROUGH 
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH OUR AREA FINDING ITSELF UNDER A QUICK NORTHWEST 
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FEATURE. WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE 
MAIN FLOW OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS 
TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME OF 
THIS HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S 
THROUGH THE DAY. 1030MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE 
MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER OUR ZONES THROUGH THE 
DAY PROVIDING AN INCREASINGLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. RESULTING 
WEATHER WILL BE RAIN FREE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE MORNING 
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO FILTERED SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK 
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST APPROACHES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH 
THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S NORTH...AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH. 

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE EAST AND REACH THE 
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY TUES MORNING WITH A RIDGE EXTENSION 
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH A DRY AND REASONABLY COOL 
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS RIDGE POSITION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CHILLY 
TEMPS TO START OUT THE DAY. THE RIDGE POSITION IS NOT IDEAL FOR 
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WE WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH SOME DEGREE 
OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. FOR THESE REASONS WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE A 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE...HOWEVER A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS 
MAY REACH THE LOWER 30S BRIEFLY TOWARD SUNRISE...AND PATCHY FROST IS 
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN 
WARM INTO THE 60S UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE.   

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FIND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BEGIN TO RAPIDLY CHANGE TOWARD 
BRINGING US OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES LATER WEDNESDAY. TWO STRONG PIECES 
OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY...ONE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS..AND 
ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVOLVE TO FORM AN 
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE MS RIVER. GLOBAL 
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE 
LOW DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN 
GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW WILL 
ALSO MOVE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND BE APPROACHING SE 
AL AND THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. 
TIGHTENING GRADIENT TUESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH CENTER OFF THE 
SOUTHEAST COAST AND FALLING PRESSURES TO OUR WEST WILL BRING 
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTH. LOW TEMPS TUES NIGHT WILL  
HAVE TROUBLE FALLING OUT OF THE 40S INLAND AND LOW 50S ALONG THE 
COAST. WEAK OVERRUNNING SITUATION COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS 
TO OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES (GENERALLY KDHN TO KABY) TUESDAY NIGHT... 
HOWEVER A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER NORTH 
ACROSS CENTRAL AL. WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
ALLOWS TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...WITH A GUSTY SOUTH 
WIND. ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS END UP A FEW DEGREES 
WARMER...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE DEPENDANT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD-COVER. 
SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WEST OF A LINE 
FROM PANAMA CITY TO ALBANY WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPANDING EASTWARD WED 
NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHERN 
ZONES) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG. SEE THE HAZARDOUS 
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT (MIAHWOTAE) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.    
                                                                    
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WX...AND LIKELY ONLY DECENT CHANCE FOR 
MEASURABLE RAINFALL THE ENTIRE PERIOD ...WILL BE IN THE WED NIGHT TO 
THU MORNING TIME FRAME...AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT BEARS DOWN ON 
THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE 
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN 850MB JET 
AROUND 50 KTS AND 0-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS OVER WESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER... SFC BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE A 
LIMITING FACTOR...AS THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE 
PARTIALLY MODIFIED BY THE COOLER AIR EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD BE QUITE PREVALENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 
NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE GFS IS 
INDICATING POSITIVE SFC BASED CAPES WELL INLAND TO THE W OF THE 
APALACHICOLA RIVER...SO IF THE FORCING DOES BECOMES STRONG 
ENOUGH...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY BE ABLE TO BE OVERCOME. IN ANY 
EVENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT AS A PATTERN CHANGER... 
AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF 
SHORTWAVES THAT HELP CARVE AND MAINTAIN THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVER THE 
EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING PERIOD. THIS TROF WILL OPEN 
THE DOOR FOR A COUPLE OF SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR TO 
HEAD OUR WAY... WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST 2 MORNINGS OF 
SUB FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. WHETHER WE APPROACH 
HARD FREEZE LEVELS OR NOT REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED...BUT BASED ON 
THE 00 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF...THE COLDEST MORNINGS WOULD BE SAT 
AND MON. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT BELOW CLIMO AS WELL... 
BUT THE WARMING FEB INSOLATION SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB 
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTIONARY LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO OUR 
NORTH. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST UNDER CAUTIONARY LEVELS 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. TIGHTENING 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE 
WEST WILL BUILD WINDS AND SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN LEGS. A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT 
IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS 
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY 
MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF 
MEXICO.  

&&

.AVIATION...
JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY 
EVENING HAS COMPLICATED THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE TAF PACKAGE 
OVERNIGHT...AS CLEARING SKIES OUT AHEAD OF THE COOL AND DRY SURGE 
HAS ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP... 
ESPECIALLY TO THE S AND E. TLH AND VLD HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO LIFR 
LEVELS AS OF 04Z...WITH JUST MVFR VIS AT ABY AND PFN THUS FAR. WITH 
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS QUICKLY 
APPROACHING SE AL AND S CENTRAL GA...BELIEVE DHN...PFN... AND ABY 
WILL ENTER THE DRY AIR FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT 
RESTRICTIONS...BUT IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT 
TLH AND VLD...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY IMPROVE 
BETWEEN 05 AND 06Z. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH JUST SOME CI MOVING IN FROM THE 
W...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW RH VALUES. RED 
FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND 
FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND HAVE NOW BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF 
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND A LARGE PORTION OF SW GEORGIA. LINGERING DRY 
AIR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF CRITICAL LEVEL RH OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA. AN 
HOUR OR TWO OF NEAR CRITICAL RH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR 
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT 
EXTENDED DURATIONS OF THESE VALUES WILL NOT BE MET. ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING 
WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH... 
ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW FOR 
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.   

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  66  33  67  45  71 /   0   0   0  10  20 
PANAMA CITY  63  40  64  53  69 /   0   0   0  10  40 
DOTHAN       63  34  64  48  70 /   0   0   0  20  60 
ALBANY       64  32  65  44  70 /   0   0   0  20  50 
VALDOSTA     65  33  66  44  72 /   0   0   0  10  20 
CROSS CITY   67  34  68  44  73 /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...
     HOUSTON.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...CALHOUN...CLAY...DECATUR...
     DOUGHERTY...EARLY...GRADY...LEE...MILLER...MITCHELL...
     QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...WORTH.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 7 PM EST /6 
     PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
     CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...
     GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...
     LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...
     WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...
     GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
     JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
     WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...GOULD


####018004680####
FXHW60 PHFO 160822 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST SUN FEB 15 2009

.UPDATE...THE MARINE ZONES WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN 
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR UPDATED WIND AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS TO COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT TO 
REFLECT THE RETURNS SHOWN ON RADAR THIS EVENING. THE MARINE AND 
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTIONS OF THIS AFD HAVE ALSO BEEN 
UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY WEATHER PREVAILED AROUND THE ISLANDS TODAY EXCEPT FOR KAUAI 
AND SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AGAIN 
ON PRESIDENTS DAY EXCEPT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS THAT FAVOR THE 
MOUNTAIN OR WINDWARD AREAS. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. 
THERE MAY BE A SMALL INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS A 
WEAK SHEAR LINE PASSES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE SFC N OF THE 
ISLANDS REINFORCED WITH A MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE. AS A 
RESULT...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
LATE THU. POES AND SSM/I DATA REVEAL DRY AIR AND LOW PWAT VALUES 
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FROM THE ISLANDS. THIS COUPLED WITH A STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 6500 FT WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO FOCUS MEASURABLE POPS 
OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. 

A MEAN TROF WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC 
BLOCKING RIDGE. GFS ENSEMBLES...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF/NAM REMAIN IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT OCCLUDING LOW PRES OVER THE ERN NORTH PAC GOING INTO 
MID WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING AND SHALLOW FRONTAL REMNANTS 
PASSING THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN BEGINNING WED WITH OTHERS FOLLOWING 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY 
INCREASING CIRRUS COVER AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS EAST BACK OVER 
THE STATE AGAIN MID WEEK AS WELL. 

FRI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA 
WILL ERODE LEADING TO LIGHTER TRADES WHICH WILL LIKELY BACK AND GAIN 
A MORE NRLY COMPONENT AS WELL. THIS MAY ALLOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH ANY SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL REMNANTS TO REACH SOME 
INTERIOR/LEEWARD AREAS. REGARDLESS OF ANY HEIGHT FALLS THE 
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN ON THE STABLE SIDE WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS 
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AGAIN N OF THE STATE...BUT FURTHER 
POLEWARD NORTH OF 40N. ECMWF/GFS STILL SUGGEST THIS WILL 
ALLOW THE ERN NPAC LOW PRES TO FRAGMENT AND RETROGRADE WWD AS THE 
PARENT LOW FILLS AND KICKS OUT NEWD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT 
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING THE FINER SCALE DETAILS WHICH WE WILL BEGIN
IRONING OUT ON THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE RETAINED 
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...SINCE THE MOKAPU BUOY JUST EAST OF OAHU 
REMAINS AT THE BORDERLINE THRESHOLD...NEAR 9 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. 
SURF IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY THRESHOLD BY 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED ALONG N FACING SHORES BEGINNING MON 
WITH SURF REACHING HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUE. LOW 
PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AND MOVING SWD OVER WATERS WELL NE OF 
HAWAII DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE 
ADDITIONAL MODERATE NE SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MID WEEK.

PREVAILING TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR 25 KT IN THE 
TYPICALLY WINDY MARINE ZONES. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE NW SWELL 
LATE MONDAY...COMBINED WITH THE LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL 
CAUSE COMBINED SEAS AROUND KAUAI TO REMAIN 10 FT OR GREATER. 
THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR THOSE MARINE 
ZONES ALSO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM HST MONDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF 
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI 
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND 
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD 
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI 
COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOUSTON/DEJESUS
PUBLIC...DEJESUS
MARINE...DEJESUS/HOUSTON



####018004719####
FXUS61 KBTV 160823
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
323 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES STATES WILL 
BUILD SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE SOME CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT
TONIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS ENERGY PUSHES EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 850 PM EST SUNDAY...OVERCAST SKIES HAVE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION AFTER SUNSET. NAM...LOCAL WRF...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
HAD SATURATED LAYER BELOW ABOUT 850 MB...BUT WE'VE SEEN IT BEFORE
THIS WINTER WITH NO LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING. HOWEVER TONIGHT HAS
BUCKED THE TREND. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUDS ALL
NIGHT...THEN TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING 12-14Z WHEN MODELS
INDICATE SOME DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS. INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPS...AND HAVE LOADED UP THE WARMER LAV
HOURLIES AND USED THOSE AS A BASIS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LEFT
POPS ALONE...WITH SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM EST SUNDAY...TRANQUIL WEATHER THEN CONTINUES FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH BUILDS ATOP 
THE FA. CLR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR SEASONABLE 
MID-WINTER TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TOMORROW MAY 
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER (A DEGREE OR TWO) BASED OFF MEAN 850 HPA TEMP 
PROFILES...BUT ALL AND ALL A FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL CHANGE. COLDEST 
READINGS AGAIN APPEAR TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...SO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES HERE. 
SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN UPPER LVL RH/CLOUDS POSSBL BY TUESDAY NIGHT 
AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ON SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER 
NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST SUNDAY...MODELS NOW A BIT SLOWER IN BRINGING IN
LIGHT SNOW ON WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE HELD OFF BRINGING IN SNOW UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. GFS MODEL FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SHOWING THAT THE ZERO DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...SO HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SLEET ACROSS RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY...WITH RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY... AS FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GRIDDED MOS MAX TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER ENSEMBLE
MOS MEAN MAX TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS. GRIDDED MOS MIN TEMPERATURES
LOOK A BIT TOO COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GIVEN WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED...CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SO
HAVE AGAIN LEANED TOWARD WARMER ENSEMBLE MOS MEAN MIN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS STILL LINGER AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THROUGH MID MORNING AS
THE STATIONARY LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FINALLY BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. IR SAT CONFIRMS THIS TREND AS EARLIER WIDESPREAD MVFR
IN VT IS LIFTING. 

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
BE UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR AS LOW PRESSURE SPREADS SNOW
AND LOW CIGS OVER REGION. POSSIBLE MVFR 00Z THU-12Z FRI AS DRIER
AIR BRIEFLY MOVES IN...THEN BACK TO IFR AFT 12Z FRI. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...AMF/HANSON