AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
925 AM MDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WILL BE ISSUING A MORNING UPDATE TO THE ZONES MAINLY              
TO REMOVE WORDING OF THE WIND SHIFT WHICH HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN               
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ALSO FINE TUNED THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT             
FIELDS...AS WELL AS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS                    
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO. AN EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
INDICATED A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS TO FIRE NEAR NORTON AND HILL                
CITY AROUND NOON...BUT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING THE DRYLINE PASSING             
THROUGH THOSE COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...SO WILL LEAVE              
THE FORECAST DRY THERE. EASTERN COLORADO LOOKS MORE INTERESTING LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA AND RUC BOTH DEPICT A SURFACE LOW FORMING               
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE...WHICH ALLOWS AN EAST WEST ORIENTED                    
BOUNDARY TO FORM ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG I-70. NORTH OF THIS                    
BOUNDARY...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ADVECT LOWER 40S DEWPOINTS               
WESTWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO CAPES AROUND 700 J/KG. DEEP LAYER                    
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST             
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. MODELS DO BREAK             
OUT PRECIP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...SO THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE                 
WATCHED CAREFULLY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE -SHRA TRENDS.                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS NRN STREAM SHRTWV              
MOVING E THROUGH THE CNTRL DAKOTAS A WEAKER LEAD SHRTWV OVER NE MN              
HAS AIDED DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA RAIN FROM NE MN INTO NW WI. AT THE             
SFC...A TROF EXTENDED FROM LO PRES OVER SE ND TO MAIN LO PRES OVER              
NRN MO.                                                                         
EVEN THOUGH INTIAL FORCING FROM MN SHRTWV WILL LIFT MORE TO THE NE              
EXPANSION OF -SHRA OVER NW WI WITH INCREASING 300K-310K ISENTROPIC              
LIFT...SHOULD HELP BRING GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN INTO THE AREA. 00Z            
RUC/ETA ALONG WITH RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO                  
SPREAD INTO FAR WRN UPR MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WEST HLF OF UPR              
MI BY 10Z. SO...FCST UPDATED TO REFLECT NMRS -SHRA COVERAGE FAR WEST            
AND SCT FARTHER E OVERNIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON MAY 24.              
ETA/GFS SHOWS SIMILAR TIMING WITH SFC TROF REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI              
BY 00Z WED. WITH VERY WEAK FORCING...WILL ONLY CARRY LOW CHC POPS               
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THRU THE DAY INTO TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH ETA                
STILL SHOWS SBCAPE INCREASING TO 100-200J/KG DURING THE DAY...ITS               
SFC DWPNTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S LOOK TOO HIGH. SO WILL KEEP             
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST.                                                 
ON WED 5H COLD POOL OF -26 TO -27C MOVING OVER UPR MI IN THE                    
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL SHRA AS ETA              
FCST SNDGS SUGGEST. WITH WK SFC RDG OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY BE                
SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SETTING UP BY AFT FOR SCT -SHRA TO FORM.            
WILL INSERT LOW CHC POPS FOR WED AFT ACROSS CWA.                                
APPROACH OF NEXT NRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SETTING UP              
OVER AREA COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU.            
HAVE LEFT CHC POPS GOING FOR ENTIRE AREA.                                       
EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RDG MOVING IN FM NRN              
PLAINS ON FRI INTO SAT SO LEFT THESE DAYS DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING             
TREND. MODELS THAN TREND TOWARD A DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE PLAINS            
BY SUN INTO MON. INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACH OF             
SFC LOW AND ASSOC SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT WARRANTED A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA            
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON.                                                         
&                                                                               
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SERIES OF NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVES TO BRING A PERIODIC SHRA CHCS                
INTO THU.                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO              
NE/KS...AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THRU NE MT. AT THE SFC ONE            
LOW PRES CNTRD OVER KS WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. VIS SATELLITE            
AND LIGHTNING DETECTION SHOWS CONVECTION FM ERN NE AND WRN IA INTO              
SRN MN AHD OF SRN BRANCH WAVE AND AT NOSE OF 35 KT 850 MB JET. WK               
HIGH PRES RDG OVER ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING COOL NE                
FLOW AND LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF UPR MI THIS AFTERNOON.                    
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES            
ALTHOUGH ETA DIGS SHORT WAVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAN ANY OF THE                 
OTHER MODELS. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH GFS SOLN WHICH IS A BIT OF A                 
COMPROMISE BTWN FURTHER NORTH AND SLOWER UKMET/CANADIAN SOLNS AND               
QUICKER AND SRN ETA SOLN.                                                       
TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR NOT LIKELY TO GET OUT OF MID 40S.                      
SHORTWAVE OVER NE MT HEADS INTO MN ARROWHEAD AND WRN ONTARIO BY 12Z             
TUE. BELIEVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS NRN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL            
BE SAPPED SOMEWHAT BY SRN STREAM SYSTEM AND DVLPG CONVECTION NORTH              
OF ASSOC WARM FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND LWR MI. SO...NOT EXPECTING              
ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AS NR BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST N AND                    
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUE/TUE EVENING. PREV FCST TIMING            
OF SHRA INTO WRN FCST AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOLLOWING ETA             
QPF FIELDS WITH SHRA REACHING ERN SECTIONS AROUND 12Z TUE. GIVEN                
WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE KEPT JUST LOW CHC POPS             
IN FCST.                                                                        
ETA/GFS SHOWS SIMILAR TIMING WITH SFC TROF REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI              
BY 00Z WED. WITH VERY WEAK FORCING...WILL ONLY CARRY LOW CHC POPS               
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THRU THE DAY INTO TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH ETA                
STILL SHOWS SBCAPE INCREASING TO 100-200J/KG DURING THE DAY...ITS               
SFC DWPNTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LWR 50S LOOK TOO HIGH. SO WILL KEEP             
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF FCST.                                                 
ON WED 5H COLD POOL OF -26 TO -27C MOVING OVER UPR MI IN THE                    
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL SHRA AS ETA              
FCST SNDGS SUGGEST. WITH WK SFC RDG OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY BE                
SOME LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SETTING UP BY AFT FOR SCT -SHRA TO FORM.            
WILL INSERT LOW CHC POPS FOR WED AFT ACROSS CWA.                                
APPROACH OF NEXT NRN BRANCH SHRTWV AND ASSOC WARM FRONT SETTING UP              
OVER AREA COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU.            
HAVE LEFT CHC POPS GOING FOR ENTIRE AREA.                                       
EXTENDED MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RDG MOVING IN FM NRN              
PLAINS ON FRI INTO SAT SO LEFT THESE DAYS DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMING             
TREND. MODELS THAN TREND TOWARD A DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE PLAINS            
BY SUN INTO MON. INCREASINGLY MOIST SRLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACH OF             
SFC LOW AND ASSOC SFC-850 MB WARM FRONT WARRANTED A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA            
FOR SAT NIGHT INTO MON.                                                         
&                                                                               
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1051 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOW PRES OVER LAKE HURON IS MOVING EWD AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE              
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOST OF PCPN HAS EXITED THE CWA TO OUR EAST...             
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING AND MOSTLY UPSLOPE -DZ IN THE              
NELY FLOW. LOW LEVEL CLOUD IS STILL INTACT...THOUGH THE DRIER FLOW              
FROM ONTARIO HAS BROUGHT CLEARING AS CLOSE AS FAR WRN AND NRN LAKE              
SUPERIOR. TEMPS REMAIN QUITE CHILLY...WITH READINGS STILL IN THE                
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO KS/              
NE...AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THRU NERN MT. SOME CONVECTION            
ALONG LINGERING LLJ ENERGY IS NOTED IN SD. THESE FEATURES WILL NOT              
AFFECT OUR REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR US TODAY              
INVOLVE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.                                                  
NELY AND INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE WRN U P AND                    
KEWEENAW SHOULD PRODUCE SOME PTCLDY SKIES THIS AFTN...AND LATEST                
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS WILL HAPPEN. RUC/NEW ETA SOUNDINGS                
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING THRU THE DAY IN THE CENTRAL AND               
EAST...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT GIVEN THAT EROSION OF            
CLOUD TO OUR N AND W HAS BEEN SLOW...AND H9-H8 FLOW WILL REMAIN                 
CYCLONIC THRU 21Z OR SO. WILL THUS HARSHEN CLOUD WORDING IN THE                 
CENTRAL AND EAST...GIVING MCLDIES THRU THE AFTN.                                
LINGERING UPSLOPE -DZ SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTN AS SFC DEWPTS            
BEGIN TO FALL (UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S UPSTREAM)...AND CIGS GRADUALLY               
LIFT.                                                                           
REGARDING TEMPS...FORECAST OF MID 40S TO MID 50S LOOKS ON TRACK...              
BUT WILL LOWER TEMPS IN GRIDS SLIGHTLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR IN CENTRAL            
AND EAST PARTS WITH A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER PERSISTING              
THRU THE AFTN. WARMEST READINGS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE FOUND IN THE                
WEST WHERE ANY SUN BREAKS WILL BE.                                              
HAVE ALREADY TWEAKED GRIDS...AND WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY TO REMOVE             
MORNING SHOWER WORDING...AND TO ADJUST SKY COVER/TEMPS SLIGHTLY.                
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 445 AM)...                             
SHORTWAVE OVER MT/WY HEADS TO MN/SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO BY 12Z                
TUE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE INHIBITED              
BY DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS THAT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS             
INSTABILITY/STRONG CONVECTION WELL S OF HERE AGAIN. SO...NOT                    
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST N OF HERE AND            
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES TUE/TUE EVENING. HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF            
SHRA INTO WRN FCST AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DON'T THINK SHRA WILL REACH             
ERN SECTIONS DURING THE NIGHT AS SFC TROF WILL ONLY REACH KDLH BY               
12Z. WEAK FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT SUGGEST KEEPING PCPN CLOSER            
TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MORE IN LINE WITH ETA RATHER THAN MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE GFS. PREFER TO KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE GIVEN WEAK             
FORCING/LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.                                                
ETA/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH SFC TROF REACHING CNTRL UPPER MI BY               
00Z WED. WITH VERY WEAK FORCING...WILL ONLY CARRY LOW CHC POPS                  
ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT THRU THE DAY INTO TUE EVENING. LOOKS AS THOUGH             
MAIN PCPN AREAS WILL BE S OF UPPER MI WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED              
AND N OF UPPER MI...CLOSER TO SHORTWAVE TRACK. ETA SHOWS SBCAPE                 
INCREASING TO 100-200J/KG DURING THE DAY...BUT ITS SFC DWPTS IN THE             
LWR 50S LOOK TOO HIGH. ETA/GFS MOS DWPTS IN THE MID 40S LOOK MUCH               
MORE REASONABLE. HAVE THUS REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA WITH LACK OF                 
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPS TO DEEPEN MIDLEVEL TROF OVER UPPER            
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED. WITH 5H HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M             
FROM 00Z TO 12Z WED...WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHRA OR                
SPRINKLES LATER TUE NIGHT EVEN THOUGH COLD FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED               
ERN AREAS IN THE EVENING. WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW SINCE MOISTURE                 
LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT.                                                    
CHILLY LATE MAY AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR WED WITH ETA/GFS SHOWING 850MB              
TEMPS AROUND 0C FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC               
FLOW/CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG LATE MAY SOLAR HEATING...EXPECT              
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP QUICKLY WED. MIGHT            
NEED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ON WED AS WELL.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JKL                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL MAKE AFD BRIEF AS BORDERLINE SVR CONVECTION IS ON RADAR.                   
TOUCHED UP GRIDS TO INCREASE LENGTH OF LIKELY POPS THROUGH LATE                 
AFTERNOON...AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE RIPE FOR                      
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG OMEGA FORCING INDICATED BY RUC.                             
IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP.               
SKIES CLEARING RAPIDLY OVER WESTERN CWA SO HAVE PUSHED TEMPS TO                 
AROUND 80 FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL TIER THROUGH FINGER LAKES.                      
WILL ISSUE FFA FOR MUCH OF UPSTATE NY.                                          
DJP                                                                             
PREV DISC -                                                                     
ANOTHER BUSY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE                  
TRAINING AND DROPPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON NRN COUNTIES OF CWA.             
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. DAMAGING WIND ON THE WANE. LOW               
LEVELS MAY BE STABLE ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE SPEED AT SFC. THIS SHORT              
WAVE WILL FINISH UP EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER SHORT             
WAVE MOVES IN FROM OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AGAIN ANOTHER SLIGHT CHC DAY            
WITH MODERATE UNSTABLE AIR. 1500 TO 2000 CAPE. NOT AS MUCH LL SHEAR             
BUT WIND FIELDS ARE MUCH STRONGER WITH A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND 50             
PLUS AT MID LEVELS. SFC LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH COLD FRONT EARLY                  
EVENING BRINGING TO AN END CONVECTION TEMPORARILY.                              
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIVE AND PROBABLY FOG TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                      
MORNING...NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW WILL APPROACH MID TO LATE                 
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. THIS TIME LOW LEVEL SHEAR GREAT BUT INSTABILITY              
CONDITIONAL. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
FOLLOWED ETA CLOSELY WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONDITIONS              
BETTER. FEW CHANGES TO GRIDS.                                                   
EXTENDED (TUE NGT-FRI)...                                                       
A SHORT WAVE SWINGING THRU AN DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A              
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY... COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND                 
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A               
COUPLE OF WEEKS AS A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS              
OVER THE EAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. RELATIVELY COOL               
WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY VFR WX DESPITE THE +TSRA SOME MVFR VSBY WITH THE RAIN. ELM            
WENT DOWN TO LIFR BRIEFLY DUE TO FOG BUT NOW THAT THEY NEAR TH TS               
THINGS SHOULD STAY STIRRED UP ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBYS HIGHER. AFTER                
THIS BATCH GOES THROUGH A BREAK THEN MORE TS THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EARLY EVENING. MVFR MAINLY DUE TO VSBY IN TSRA. CIGS AND VSBY WILL              
PROBABLY GO IFR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT BUT WILL BE AFTER 06Z.           
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT SULLIVAN NY                                    
PA...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TAC                                                       
EXTENDED...MSE                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1105 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE NEEDED THIS              
MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD ST ALONG AND EAST OF            
I95 THIS MORNING AND THESE CLOUDS SEEM IN NO HURRY TO DISSIPATE. A              
LINE OF BKN CONVECTION IS ALONG THE IMMED COAST ATTM AND SHOULD BE              
OUT OF THE AREA BY NOON.                                                        
AGAIN MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS AMOUNT/MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION              
THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. ASSUMING THE LOW CLOUDS                      
DISSIPATE FAST ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH 90 DEGREES OR                
SO...SURFACE CAPES OF AROUND 4000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH              
LI'S OF -8. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OLD OUTFLOWS AND THE SEA BREEZE.                     
HOWEVER...I NOTICED THAT THE 00Z/06Z MODELS INDICATED THE ESTRN NC              
WILL BE IN A REGION OF SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE             
WK DISTB TRIGGERING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY              
THE 12Z MESO-ETA. BOTH THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z MESO-ETA INDICATE NO                 
LIFT/QPF E OF I95 THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY THE RUC40 WAS FCSTG SIG                  
CONVECTION. THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY                
WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS             
BUT MY GUT TELLS ME IT WILL MUCH LESS ACTIVE. ANOTHER TREND THE                 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION            
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK DISTB CROSSES THE AREA. I WILL ADDRESS                
THIS AFTER THE NEXT MODEL RUN IS COMPLETELY IN.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SPRAWLING E-W ORIENTED 1024MB BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM            
CENTERED OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC NOT MOVING ANYWHERE FAST ANYTIME                 
SOON. AS A RESULT...SW FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER CWFA THROUGH               
MUCH OF FORECAST CYCLE UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THRU REGION                
THURSDAY. BUOYS ONCE AGAIN INDICATING SOLID 15-20 KT SW FLOW THIS               
MORNING WITH SEAS HOVERING IN THE 4-5 FT MARQUEE. ONLY CAVEAT IN                
OFFSHORE MATTER IS BUOY 41025 WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS HAVE BEEN              
OCCURRING WITH SOME FREQUENCY. THUS...SCEC FLAGS FLYING FOR OREGON              
INLET TO OCRACOKE INLET OUT 20NM LEG. SURF CAMS/LOCAL SURF ZONE                 
SPOTTERS REPORTING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE FROM THE NOBX DOWN TO                 
TOPSAIL BEACH RUNNING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 1/2 FT. EVEN THOUGH            
WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE AREN'T ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME TO FRIENDS IN              
HAWAII ABOUT...RIP CURRENT RISK VALUES FOR BEACH-GOERS ALONG SOUTH              
FACING BEACHES FROM FRISCO S TO TOPSAIL HAVE BEEN RAISED TO MODERATE            
LEVELS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SW WIND WAVE ENERGY FLOW FROM DAYS GONE            
BY. CONVERSELY...SAME FRISKY SW OFFSHORE FLOW FOR E FACING BEACHES              
FROM HATTERAS NTH'WD HAVING A "FLATTENING" EFFECT IN THE SURF                   
(0.5-1.0 FT FROM RODANTHE N TO DUCK PIER)...RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS              
REMAIN "LOW" THERE. SW FLOW STRANGLE HOLD COMES SLOWLY TO AN END                
LATER IN WEEK (THU) WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS IN FROM THE NW AND              
MAKES A RUN FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWFA. WEAK 1015MB HIGH BEHIND               
FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLDER SST'S TO THE N ALONG WITH POSSIBLE             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSH OF TSTMS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY GIVE IT ENOUGH                
OOMPH TO GET (POSSIBLY THRU?) N TOPSAIL BEACH THU. CLIMATOLOGICALLY             
SPEAKING...COLD FRONT ASSAULTS UP UNTIL MEMORIAL DAY CAN STILL HAVE             
ENOUGH IN THE TANK TO MAKE IT FURTHER S THAN ONE WOULD THINK. START             
OF HURRICANE SEASON USUALLY PUTS AN END TO THAT NOTION.                         
TROPICALLY SPEAKING...FOR 5 DAYS PRIOR...GFS/MRF (A HOST OF OTHERS)             
HAD BEEN TELLING A SW CARIB SEA TROPICAL TALE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE              
FORMING NEAR EASTERN END OF CUBA/WESTERN JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA AND                 
MOVING NTH'WD UP THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN AS            
THE NEW WEEK (THIS WEEK) UNFOLDS. WELL...THE NEW WEEK HAS UNFOLDED              
AND SFC ANALYSIS/SAT IMAGERY PRESENTLY SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
(1008MB) IN THAT SAME SOUTHERN LATITUDE REGION (NOT TO MENTION A                
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MOVING WNW). GFS/MRF                 
TAKES LOW N BY NE AND KEEPS SAME GENERAL 1008 TO 1012MB-ISH RANGE               
THRU 96 HOURS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS HAVE AFORMENTIONED               
LOW SOME 1200 MILES DUE E OF HATTERAS IN 96 HOURS TRUCKING HARD INTO            
N ATLANTIC ENVIRONS. LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH III/ AWIPS OSBW04/09                
WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CONGLOMERATION OF ALL "THAT" (WIND AND            
WAVE ACTIVITY/ENERGY) DOWN THERE AND TRANSLATES IT UP HERE (ALBEIT              
SMALLER IN HEIGHT AND STATURE) IN THE FORM OF AN UNDERLYING 2-3                 
FT/9-10 SECOND SE SWELL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THRU EARLY              
PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE SMALL-SCALE SWELL ENERGY MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY             
BIGGER IMPACT CONCERNING THE PULL IN RIP CURRENT RISK DEPARTMENT                
DURING UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY TIME FRAME.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 17Z. POSSIBLE              
IFR CONDS IN ISOLD TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
.HYDR...LATEST RVF FOR CONTENTNEA CREEK NOW IS FORECASTING RIVER TO             
CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE RIVER FLOOD WARNING WILL HAVE TO             
BE DISCONTINUED.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
MHX  88  70  86  71 /  20  10  20  20                                           
EWN  90  69  89  71 /  30  10  30  30                                           
HSE  82  73  81  72 /  20  10  20  20                                           
PGV  93  71  91  72 /  30  10  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JME/GC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
815 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST ON TARGET TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE ANY ZFP TEXT UPDATE              
THIS EVENING.  WILL RE-FRESHEN GRIDDS WITH CURRENT WX...OTHERWISE               
ALL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                        
SFC LOW NEAR MINOT...WITH 500 MB UPPER LOW NEAR THE SAME AREA.                  
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO BTWN JMS/BIS. PROG TRACK IS FOR            
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST TOWARD GRAND FORKS IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME.               
WIDESPREAD RAIN RAIN EAST OF THE TROUGH WORKING EAST...AND WILL MOVE            
OUT OF THE VALLEY BY 06Z...LEAVING SE ND MAINLY RAINFREE AFTER 06Z.             
NRN AREAS TO STAY IN THE SHOWERS LONGER AS WRAPAROUND RAINS ON MINOT            
88D VIA THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS TIL MORNING.                                     
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS OCCURRING CURRENTLY WITH BOTH GFK AND              
FAR DOWN TO CIGS BLO 1000FT AGL.  THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL                   
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TIL MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. LIKELY                
WILL BE A FEW PERIODS WHERE LOW CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR A                     
TIME...BUT IN GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS FOR CEILINGS WILL RULE. BJI                
WILL LIKEWISE GO DOWN TO IFR AND LIKELY LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND             
STAY THAT WAY TIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  20KM RUC LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS              
SHOW THIS PATTERN WELL.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
954 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT IN VICINITY OF I-71 CORRIDOR.                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH COLD               
FRONT.                                                                          
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE.  HOWEVER WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR              
CHANGES IN ZONE CONFIGURATION TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.  WILL               
ADD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES.  BOTH THE 06Z ETA AND 09Z RUC            
SHOWING FRONT HANGING AROUND/JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER.  PROGGED                 
INSTABILITY OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...HELICITIES GREATER THAN 100 AND A            
WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING ACROSS FRONT WILL CREATE AT LEAST A                 
SMALL THREAT OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT.  WILL ALSO UP            
TEMPS TO THE MID 80S IN THE NEW ZONE GROUP.                                     
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 TIPTON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
315 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
MORE OF THE SAME. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL                 
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO TEMPERATURES AND                
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE BE GENERALLY                
ABOVE NORMAL. SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL             
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO               
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT-TERM, THE RUC SHOWS THE CURRENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHARPLY DIMINISH THIS                  
EVENING. SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM.                  
THE ETA AND GFS SHOW THE NEXT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY WILL BE                 
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT BRINGS A RESURGENCE OF                
HIGH HUMIDITY AND LIFT TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.                                
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE                                                                       
WV...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
11/66                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
835 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZFP UPDATE TO CONSIST OF REMOVAL OF EVENING TSTM CHANCES AS IT LOOKS            
LIKE WE WERE UNABLE TO BREAK MID-LVL CAPPING INVERSION TODAY. 18Z               
MODEL RUNS AND LATEST RUC DO BRING SOME WEAK PVA INTO THE CWFA LATER            
THIS EVENING AS TAIL END OF MID-LVL S/WV...CURRENTLY AIDING TSTM                
DEVELOPMENT JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...SWINGS ACRS. NOT                     
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WEAK LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME INCREASING               
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ALSO DO NOT DETECT ANY OUTFLOWS DRIFTING                 
SOUTH FROM SW VA CONVECTION...SO WILL DROP INHERITED POP GRID OF 20             
PERCENT THROUGH 05Z BACK TO 10.                                                 
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACRS THE MTNS WITH A             
LITTLE CI ELSEWHERE. A DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED THIS EVENING                  
LEADING TO ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING P DENSE             
MTN VALLEY FOG AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG ELSEWHERE. 00Z TEMPS RUNNING                 
ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MAV NUMBERS...BUT STILL EXPECT TO             
RADIATE INTO GOING FCST MIN TEMP RANGES.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MID-LEVEL CAP...DRY AIR...AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE                     
PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.               
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS            
AND MODELS DEPICT WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM WEST... SO            
PLAN TO GO WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT IN MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT                  
CHANCE  EAST OF MOUNTAINS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.                 
EXPECT DAYTIME HEATING TO BE PRIME FORCING FOR ONLY SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ALOFT WILL                 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND PERIODIC SHORT WAVES             
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA AS UPPER RIDGE IS DEPRESSED WHILE TROUGH                 
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN U.S. MOVES TO NORTHERN GREAT                        
LAKES/HUDSON BAY AREA.  SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD               
INTO CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PROVIDING US WITH PERHAPS THE              
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE WEEK.                                   
FRI-MON...FOLLOWED VERY CLOSE TO THE NCEP SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED.            
SFC FRONT WL BE LOCATED OVER THE REGION ON FRI. THIS FEATURE MIXES              
OUT AS HGHTS RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT EJECTING CENTRAL CONUS TROF.                
HAVE CARRIED POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING            
FRONT. CONFINED POPS TO THE MTNS SAT AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WL BE              
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CONVECTION. INCREASED POPS ON SUN...THOUGH STILL            
HIGHEST IN THE MTNS. PER THE GFS...PATTER CHANGE OCCURS EARLY NEXT              
WEEK AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WL MOVE INTO               
THE ERN CONUS. THIS WL DRIVE A STRONG FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE MON            
OR TUE. HAVE THEREFOR KEPT CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE ON MON. HAVE ONLY               
GONE LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM AS THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINLY AT DAY 7.             
LITTLE DEVIATION FROM ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED                   
PERIODS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CSH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1040 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT OF A CAP MUST BE OVERCOME TO                   
REALIZE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THAT EXISTS.  HOWEVER... FIRST LOOK             
AT MORNING MODELS SHOW CAP IS LESS EVIDENT DURING AFTERNOON AND                 
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO VALUES NEEDED TO INITIATE            
DEEP CONVECTION.  RUC SHOWS WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM DRIFTING EASTWARD            
INTO MOUNTAINS BY 18Z AND WEAK LEE TROUGH FROM 18Z ON INTO THE                  
EVENING.  CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS SO WILL                    
CONTINUE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS THERE... BUT STILL IN CHANCE                      
CATEGORY.  AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A SURFACE CONVERGENCE FEATURE                
SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED TO FOCUS ATTENTION ON AREAS EAST OF HIGHER            
TERRAIN.  HOWEVER... WITH FLOW ALOFT MORE WESTERLY THAN YESTERDAY...            
WILL BE ON THE ALERT FOR CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD FROM MOUNTAINS              
ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                  
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS NOTICEABLE... BUT CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD               
FROM  MOUNTAINS COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DEEP LAYER OF NEARLY DRY                
ADIABTIC LAPSE RATE TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LGL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
400 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
DRYLINE TRANSLATING SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AT 18Z THE DRYLINE              
WAS LOCATED WEST OF CHILDRESS...TO SOUTHWEST OF TAHOKA...THEN SOUTH             
SOUTHWEST TO HOBBS. RUC AND GFS MOVE DRYLINE WELL EAST OF THE FA                
THIS EVENING WHILE THE ETA HOLDS IT BACK TO THE WEST NEAR LUBBOCK.              
FOR NOW WILL COMPROMISE ON POSITION AND KEEP IT ALONG AND EAST OF               
THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING...THEN IS SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE WEST              
LATER TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING               
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE CWFA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z                 
TONIGHT AND WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AFTERNOON HEATING AND                       
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE HAVE RETAINED 20 PERCENT POPS FROM                
NEAR BROWNFIELD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS FOR THIS EVENING.                   
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...IF THE CAP             
CAN BE BROKEN.                                                                  
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO TRANSLATED EAST OUT OF EASTERN MONTANA                   
TONIGHT AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...TO                 
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE FA EARLY TUESDAY.                 
WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FLOWING OUT OF THE PACIFIC            
AND INTO MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY AS THIS WILL BRING AN                    
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  XI.                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AS MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY                 
DIVERGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A SLOWER                 
SOLUTION MORE READILY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE AND IS THUS MORE                      
REALISTIC.                                                                      
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN              
U.S. ON WED AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THU.             
CUTOFF LOW WILL GAIN SPEED ON FRI AS DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH                 
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.  COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY              
STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WED/WED EVENING.                
DRYLINE WILL MIX OFF OF THE CAPROCK WED AFTERNOON THEN RETREAT BACK             
WEST NEAR THE NM STATE LINE WED NIGHT.  PROVIDED SUFFICIENT LOW-                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...A FEW CU MAY BREAK THROUGH STRONG CAP...ALLOWING            
TSRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY WED                  
EVENING.  ALTHOUGH DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN UP NICELY ON THU...           
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX EAST VERY FAR DUE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW              
HELPING TO KEEP LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKED.  SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST               
BOTH WED AND THU DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODERATE LOW TO MID-               
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN                    
DECREASE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS DRYLINE MIXES EAST             
OF FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH ITS QUITE FAR OUT...A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH            
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUN BRINGING ABOUT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSRA.                 
HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.  JH.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       55  87  55  92 /   0   0   0   0                                   
TULIA        60  88  58  91 /   0   0   0  10                                   
PLAINVIEW    62  88  62  92 /  10   0  10  10                                   
LEVELLAND    64  90  63  92 /  10   0  10   0                                   
LUBBOCK      64  90  63  92 /  20  10  10  10                                   
BROWNFIELD   64  91  63  93 /  20  10  10  10                                   
CHILDRESS    66  88  65  91 /  20  10  10  20                                   
SPUR         66  91  65  93 /  20  10  10  20                                   
ASPERMONT    68  94  67  94 /  20  10  10  20                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11/02                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
958 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE                
JULY RATHER THAN LATE MAY. CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS SHOW                   
WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG/NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER...THOUGH               
WITH NEW CELLS FIRING OVER SRN PTNS OF THE OH VLY (NOW INTO SRN WV).            
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/SFC BASED INSTBY IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE                 
DIMINISHING TRENDS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSEST TO OUR REGION.                     
HOWEVER...LATEST RUC PROJECTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AXIS OF LOW                
LEVEL (1000-850 MB) MOISTURE POOLING...CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE            
CONVECTION OVER SRN WV...EVENTUALLY ALIGNING EAST OF THE MNTNS                  
ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT (AFTER 04Z)...MOST NOTABLY OVER                     
SOUTHSIDE VA AND NE NC. THIS AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT BECOMES                     
BETTER-DEFINED E OF THE MNTNS OVERNIGHT WITH A RIDGE OF MAXIMUM                 
THETA-E COINCIDING WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET.                                   
PER THE OBSERVED 00Z WALLOPS SOUNDING...DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTBY               
CURRENTLY IS BEING LIMITED BY THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OR CAP NOTED             
AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT             
OVERNIGHT (WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT VIA RRQ REGION OF UPPER LVL JET)...            
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT COULD CERTAINLY BREAK THE CAP AND ALLOW               
FOR UNABATED ELEVATED INSTBY OR CAPE BTWN 1000-1500 J/KG. THEREFORE             
WILL LEAVE IN THE LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL              
HIGHLIGHT HIGHEST CHANCES S OF THE JAMES RIVER WHERE THE LOW LEVEL              
THERMODYNAMICS (THETA-E POOLING/ELEVATED INSTBY) AND DEGREE OF                  
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST FAVORABLE. MID LEVEL LAPSE            
RATES (700-500 MB) IN FACT ARE PROJECTED TO BE BTWN 7 AND 7.5 C/KM              
OVER THIS AREA PER THE LATEST RUC.                                              
OTHERWISE...BASED ON THE LATEST OBS/CURRENT TRENDS MAY TWEAK MIN                
TEMPS UP A NOTCH.                                                               
MARINE FORECAST UPDATE...LITTLE/NO CHANGES MADE FROM PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
HURLEY                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
-----------------------------------------------------------------               
.SYNOPSIS...VRY WRM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION                  
THRU WED...WITH A COUPLE OF FRNTL BNDRIES POSSIBLY HELPING                      
TO PRODUCE ISLTD TO SCTD PCPN.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY NO PCPN ON RDR IN OUR AREA OR NEARBY                    
THIS AFTN...WITH MSTLY SNY SKY AND VRY WRM TEMPS RANGING FM THE                 
UPR 80S TO NR 90.  WK FRNT WELL N/NW OF THE FA THIS AFTN...IS                   
FCST TO SINK S INTO OUR EXTRM NRN ZNS LATER TNGT INTO TUE MORNG.                
MDLS INDICATING WK SHRTWV/SOME MOIST/WK LIFT CROSSING REGION                    
LATER THIS EVENG INTO TUE MORNG.  AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH                  
SLGT CHC OF SHRAS/TSRAS ALL ZNS.  OTHRWISE...PRTLY SNY AND                      
WRM AGAIN TUE...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO NR 90 MOST                     
PLACES.  COOLER OVR MD/VA ERN SHR WHERE FRNT MAY LINGER IN                      
OR JUST S OF THE AREA.  SLGT CHCS TUE AFTN INTO WED MORNG                       
DUE TO COMBO OF DECENT INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALNG                         
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROF.                                                       
MAIN COLD FRNT THEN APPROACHES FM THE NW LATE WED AFTN/EVNG                     
TRIGGERING SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS IN ADVANCE OF IT.  FRNT SHUD                        
PUSH S OF NE NC ZNS THU MORNG.  FOR NOW...WILL KEEP CHC POPS                    
IN SRN ZNS THRU THU MORNG.  DRY LATER THU INTO FRI...WITH                       
FRNT S OF THE AREA.  FRNT THEN LIFTS BACK N INTO/THRU THE REGION                
FRI NGT THRU SUN...POSSIBLY PRODUCING WDLY SCTD PCPN.  FRNT                     
CUD BE LINGERING OVR N/NE ZNS ON MON.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
32/22                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
950 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.UPDATED...TONIGHT                                                              
WAKE LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER JUST WEST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA.  STRONG PRESSURE FALLS /8MB PER HOUR/ ARE CAUSING            
LOCALIZED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS.             
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER                    
OUTLOOK...TO INCLUDE THESE WINDS.  AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR                   
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.                             
EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE EAST BEHIND THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION.                  
DOWNWARD MID-LEVEL FORCING NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS             
CAUSED A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS IS IN DIRECT                  
CONTRAST WITH THE LATEST ETA/RUC RUNS AT 00Z.                                   
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET IS             
MAXIMIZED FOR A HIGHER CONFIDENCE FACTOR AS TO THE CORRECT SOLUTION             
TO TONIGHTS FORECAST.  HAVE TRIMMED FLOOD WATCH BASED ON LATEST                 
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.                                                           
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS FORECAST...                                                           
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                            
FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LOW NEAR KHYS IN CENTRAL                
KANSAS. WARM FRONT BOWS NORTH INTO WESTERN IOWA THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST            
INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADARS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOW AN            
INTENSE LINE OF STORMS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA MOVING STEADILY EAST WITH            
OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA IN THE WARM                  
SECTOR.                                                                         
12Z MODELS TODAY IN THE SHORT TERM EXHIBIT SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE              
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OUT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE                   
COMPLEX. THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE ONGOING              
COMPLEX WHILE THE ETA DEVELOPS IT LATER AND FARTHER SOUTH OUT OF                
THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. COMPLEX OVER             
NORTHWEST IOWA HAS ALREADY BEEN ALIVE FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AND WOULD               
BE VERY SURPRISED IF IT DOES NOT PRODUCE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED                 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HEDGE THE FORECAST                  
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. EXPECTING THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND                 
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH IN MINNESOTA TO CONTINUING MOVING EAST ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE              
WARM FRONT. EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AS CAPE                 
VALUES FROM 0-5KM SHOULD REACH VALUES UP TO 750 J/KG WHILE SURFACE              
BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 500 J/KG OR LESS. 0-3KM BULK               
SHEAR VALUES THIS EVENING SHOULD BE AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH LITTLE                 
DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE 0-6KM COLUMN. HOWEVER...THE WARM FRONT IS               
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE                 
RATES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS SO MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE             
SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL. PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR                
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NOT             
MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE                 
INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS             
NOT A LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN...IT WILL FALL ON AREAS THAT CAN NOT                 
TAKE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS SO NEW FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG                
WITH SOME RISES WHERE THE FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.                        
BOTH MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST            
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO                 
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BRINGING A WEAK FRONT             
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ETA SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD             
OF THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE ETA                   
GENERALLY STAY UNDER 500 J/KG UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT              
INTRODUCE ANY THUNDER UNTIL THEN.                                               
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                             
00Z RUN OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD                 
AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE. HAD TO REINTRODUCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AS LOW               
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS           
THE UPPER MIDWEST. NEXT SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO               
BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND REMOVED THE POPS FOR FRIDAY. COLD FRONT                  
THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION AND MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS                  
SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT. THIS LEADS TO KEEPING              
POPS IN THE FORECAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                          
04                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
IA...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...IAZ011.                                              
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2AM...IAZ007-017-021-027-035-053.                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...WIZ016.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
332 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON MCS AND RAINS FOR TONIGHT.                      
EARLIER FORECAST THOUGHTS FOR MCS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE REALIZED            
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE            
AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS             
LIKE FOREGONE CONCLUSION THAT THEY WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATE TONIGHT.             
ETA AND GFS BOTH LOCK ONTO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL BUT DIFFER AS TO HOW           
QPF WILL BE GENERATED. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS            
AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 1/2 - 1 INCH RAINFALL HPC QPF FORECAST            
FOR THIS EVENT...THE RUC SEEMS TO BE CONCENTRATING THE QPF TOO FAR              
SOUTH. SPC HAS EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK SEVERE FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTH              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT...UNDERSTANDABLE CONSIDERING STRONG TO                
SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING IN IOWA ATTM.                                           
ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A MAJOR RAINFALL...IT COMES ON THE HEELS OF A              
VERY WET PERIOD AND MANY SPOTS IN THE SOUTH CANNOT TOLERATE ANY                 
MORE RAINFALL WITH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS AT OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE              
AND CONTINUING TO RISE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE POSTED YET ANOTHER               
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BORDERING                 
ILLINOIS.                                                                       
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH NEXT CHANCE OF             
RAIN ON THURSDAY. UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH CHANCE OF RAIN               
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN WI            
COUNTIES WIZ067>072.                                                            
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
315 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY...ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GA/FL BORDER THIS MORNING.                 
DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE STORM COMPLEX NE OF THE BAHAMAS...A BAND OF               
DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GOMEX/SW ATLC...PW VALUES OVER THE            
SRN PENINSULA AOB 1.1" AND AS LOW AS 0.7" AT KXMR...RUC ANALYSIS                
MEASURING H100-H50 MEAN RH VALUES BLO 50%.  ALOFT...A HIGH AMP                  
H50-H10 TROF AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIB TO THE CAROLINA COAST            
IS PLACING THE FL PENINSULA UNDER STRONG MID/UPR LVL SUPRESSION.                
TODAY/TONIGHT...WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.  ATLC RIDGE WILL               
MAINTAIN AN ERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. THESE WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THE DRY AIR UPSTREAM WHILE THE H50-H10 TROF                
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...KEEPING FL UNDER A SUBSIDING H50-H10                     
AIRMASS.  TEMPS NEAR CLIMO ALONG THE COAST THANKS TO AN ONSHORE                 
FLOW...SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE DRY AIR WILL                 
WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF THE ECSB.                                   
WED THROUGH FRI...5H HEIGHTS RISE TO 592+DM AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS               
FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL DURING THE LATE WEEK. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS              
WILL ALSO DRIFT SOUTH TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF PENINSULA                 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN DELAYED ONSET OF THE                
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS. TEMPS             
WILL REACH MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WHILE TEMPS NEAR THE              
COAST WILL REACH AROUND 90 SOUTH/LOWER 90S NORTH BEFORE SEA BREEZE              
ONSET WED AND THURS...AND EVEN A LITTLE WARMER BY FRIDAY AS WESTERLY            
COMPONENT GETS A LITTLE STRONGER NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. NO RAIN IN            
THE FORECAST DUE TO DRY AND SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH DEEP LAYER                
RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA.                                                      
SAT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...NO RELIEF IN SIGHT FROM THE WARM AND DRY             
PATTERN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN             
A HOLD ON THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND A FURTHER              
DELAY TO THE START TO THE WET SEASON.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HEADLINE                  
CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND COMPONENT WILL VEER FROM               
E-SE TO S-SW AS RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.                    
ONSHORE COMPONENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST IN THE                    
AFTERNOONS NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...ERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE CONCERNS                
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  INTERIOR COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN WILL SEE               
MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 35-45% RANGE BEFORE THE ECSB PUSHES FAR             
ENOUGH INLAND TO MODIFY THE DRY AIR.  DESPITE DRY WX FOR THE PAST               
SEVERAL DAYS...THE DIV OF FORESTRY INDICATES KBDI VALUES OVER THE               
INTERIOR GENERALLY IN THE 300-400 RANGE...INDICATING MODERATE SOIL              
MOISTURE. RH VALUES EXPECTED TO AGAIN DROP AOB 40% OVER INTERIOR                
SECTIONS ON WED. ON BOTH DAYS 20 FT WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 MPH AND              
WITH LOW RH VALUES AND DURATIONS MARGINAL AT BEST...WILL HOLD OFF ON            
ISSUING ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR NOW.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  88  67  90  71 /   0   0  10  10                                           
MCO  91  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0                                           
MLB  85  67  88  70 /   0   0   0   0                                           
VRB  85  68  87  70 /   0   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW                                                             
LONG TERM...GLITTO                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN TIMING/COVERAGE IS MAIN CONCERN IN THE FCST PERIOD                         
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS POS TILTED W CONUS TROUGH WITH SLIGHT            
SEPARATION BTWN S AND N STREAMS. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY CONVECTION IS TIED            
TO MAIN WARM FRONT FM MO INTO IL...THERE ARE SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS               
FARTHER N OVR N MN INTO W HALF OF UPR MI DUE TO PVA FM N STREAM                 
SHORTWAVE OVR W MN AND THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH             
1000-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVR MN            
AS WELL.                                                                        
BETTER PVA WITH N STREAM WAVE SHIFTS MORE N THAN E THIS MORNING                 
LEAVING MOST OF UPR MI (EXCEPT FAR W TIER) DEPENDENT ON THETA-E                 
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR PCPN. BULK OF LIFT VIA THESE                    
MECHANISMS SHIFTS INTO E ZONES BY EARLY AFTN. ONCE BULK OF WAA LIFT             
CEASES THIS MORNING...STILL EXPECT A SMALLER CHANCE OF SHRA TO                  
LINGER ACROSS CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG                
ADVANCING TROUGH. RADAR TRENDS ARE CONCERNING TO OVERALL SCENARIO               
THOUGH AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVR IL IS MINIMIZING MOISTURE RETURN               
INTO CNTRL UPR MI AND LITTLE IN WAY OF RETURNS ARE NOTED OVR                    
UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION OF W/CNTRL WI. SINCE SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP            
IN THETA-E ADVECTION THIS MORNING FOR REST OF CNTRL COUNTIES INTO E             
AREAS KEPT SCT POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA (HIGHEST W AND LOWEST E).                 
BY LATE AFTN...MODELS STILL INSISTING ON A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF             
ELEVATED CAPE BASED NEAR H9. MOISTURE BY LATE AFTN LOOKS MEAGER                 
THOUGH SO DID NOT MENTION ANY TS. A BRIEF BREAK LOOKS LIKELY BY LATE            
THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF SFC TROUGH. WEAK RIPPLES OF LIFT IN MID-UPR             
LEVELS STILL POSSIBLE AS UPR MI IS WITHIN BASE OF UPR TROUGH...BUT              
LACK OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AND MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY PCPN MENTION.             
BLYR FLOW INITIALLY W/NW ON WED BUT QUICKLY BACKS SW IN AFTN. BOTH              
ETA AND GFS DEPICT COMPACT VORT MAX AND DEEP MOISTURE/Q-VECTOR                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC WARM FRONT SLIDING ACROSS UPR MI WED NIGHT                
SO KEPT IN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. THINK BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN                 
COMES IN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU AS SFC LOW ZIPS SE ACROSS CWA                  
MODELS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK WITH                   
ETA/CANADIAN FARTHER S (CNTRL WI BY 00Z FRI) AND GFS/UKMET FARTHER N            
(W UPR MI BY 00Z FRI). CWA AFFECTED BY SFC LOW AND ON N SIDE OF WARM            
FRONT ON THU SO BUMPED POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE. GRID TIMING FOR ENDING            
THE PCPN THU NIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE              
AS DOES A DRY FCST FOR FRI.                                                     
TRENDED TOWARD ETA/CANADIAN SOLN FOR THU WHICH EQUATES TO MORE OF A             
NE COMPONENT TO WIND SO DROPPED TEMPS INTO 40S ALONG LK SUPERIOR                
WITH MID-UPR 50S INLAND. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES MADE BEYOND THU NIGHT.           
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
445 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO SEDALIA.              
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ROUNDS OF STRONG                  
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 ALONG THE 850MB FRONT.  RUC               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT HAS BEEN DRIFTING            
SOUTH SLOWLY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA TO FORT SCOTT TO               
WARSAW. WIND PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OKLAHOMA HAS            
VEERED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS.  THIS VEERING TREND SHOULD             
FOCUS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION                 
WANES.                                                                          
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR IGNITION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. I SUSPECT THAT              
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  MY INITIAL THINKING WAS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI                
RIVER, BUT THE FOCUS MAY BE WELL SOUTH OF BUTLER AND CLINTON. WITH              
THE WEATHER STARTING TO CALM DOWN A BIT I MAY RE-EXAMINE THIS FOR AN            
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                      
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO                
SEDALIA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH NOON. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
HOURS I WILL EXAMINE RADAR TRENDS. WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL            
JET, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH BEFORE IT'S EXPIRATION            
TIME OF NOON.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                   
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT TODAY. AT THIS TIME, IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI                  
TONIGHT, SO I DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN IN THE PLEASANT HILL                  
FORECAST AREA, BUT I COULD BE CLOSE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
STREAMING NORTH OUT OF TEXAS MAY RIDE OVERTOP THE 850MB FRONT AND               
PRODUCE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AT THIS TIME MY                 
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN             
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ057...               
KSZ060.                                                                         
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ043>046...           
MOZ053>054.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL MAINLY BE SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAY THEN TEMPERATURES...AND THEN HIGHER CHANCES OF               
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.                                  
LOOKS LIKE A QUIETER PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FORECAST               
AREA IS ABSENT FROM THE OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.             
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO            
NEBRASKA WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL            
MISSOURI.  TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.               
CLOUDS CEILINGS WERE MOSTLY ABOVE 12K...EXPECT AROUND FNB...WHERE               
THERE WAS SOME LINGERING STRATOCU.  A LOOK AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR            
IMAGERY AND RUC 500MB HTS HIGHLIGHT THE LONGWAVE TROF FM MT WWD TO              
CA...THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROF TRACKING ACRS THE NRN PLNS...AND              
THE VIGOROUS WAVE EXITING THE AREA OVER IL.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF              
THE THE 88D RETURNS WERE WELL TO THE S OVR KS AND MO...OTHER SHOWERS            
(WITH OCCASIONALLY EMBEDDED THUNDER) EXTENDED FROM WY AND CO INTO               
NEBRASKA.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPEARED TO BE IN AN AREA OF              
UPWARD VERTICAL...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DIV ALOFT WITH               
THE JET SEGMENT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.                                         
IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA TODAY.  NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 20 OR 10 TO 25              
MPH RANGE THIS MORNING...BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH THIS                  
AFTERNOON.  WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED...THE MID LEVELS            
REMAIN QUITE MOIST.  SOME UVV AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM                           
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO                  
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS.  CURRENTLY HAVE              
SPRINKLES IN AND A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER OR -TSRA S.  WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BEFORE PRESS TIME.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES               
ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH 850MB CAA AND SOME CLOUD                                
COVER/VIRGA/PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S               
NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.  850MB MOISTURE REMAINS SUPPRESSED TODAY              
AND BEGINS TO RETURN TO WRN NEB OVERNIGHT AND ERN NEBRASKA AND WRN              
IOWA WED.  ISENTROPIC LIFT...WEAK UVV...INCREASING CAPES AND EXPECT             
TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED.  AGAIN...CLOUDCOVER MAY IMPACT HIGHS...BUT             
EXPECT READINGS TO BE IN THE 70S.  A SHORTWAVE TROF DROPS THROUGH               
THE GRTLKS THU WITH RIDGING FOR WRN NEB.  IN COORD WITH DMX...HAVE              
ADDED SMALL POPS FOR OUR IA COUNTIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.                     
BEYOND THURSDAY...FRI-TUE...MODELS DIVERGE ON MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
TROF OVER THE CNTRL US AND TRANSLATION OF CLOSED LOW FROM THE                   
ROCKIES EWD.  FOR NOW HAVE POPS MENTIONED WITH A DECREASING TREND               
TOWARD TUE.  RAISED HIGH TEMPS FRI AND SAT AND KEPT MAINLY 70S SUN              
THROUGH TUES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER                 
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL                 
CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX.  THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX.                     
$$                                                                              
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FRONT REACHED CLAYTON AROUND 100 AM...AT THE SAME TIME            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UP              
THROUGH LUBBOCK...ALSO UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. ETA CRANKS OUT                
SOME PCPN OVER SE/EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL             
AS NE. RUC ALSO GENERATES SOME PCPN BY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN SLOPES               
SANGRES. EVEN THE GFS WANTS TO PAINT SMALL AMOUNTS OVER EAST                    
CENTRAL/SE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. AND ALL RELATIVELY CLOSE IN                  
REGARDS TO THE BOUNDARY/S POSITION THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK VORTMAX                
SHOWS UP ON GFS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY CONVERT THE LESS THAN 10 POPS ALREADY IN                
GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE.                                       
DON/T SEE AS MUCH EVIDENCE FOR A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY            
NIGHT/WED THOUGH THERE IS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY TX                     
PANHANDLE. LOOKS AS IF SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MIGRATES            
INTO ERN NM TODAY IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.                             
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS 24 HOURS AGO IN THE WED/THURS                       
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE APPEARING                
MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PCPN. LATEST MEX POPS HAVE BACKED              
OFF ESPECIALLY FOR THURS...AND ARE NOW MOSTLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE              
CATEGORY...WHICH IS WHAT/S ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. IT/S ALSO SLOWER TO            
MOVE THE CLOSED LOW OUT AS IT LINGERS OVER NM ERN BORDER UNTIL                  
MIDDAY FRIDAY. ETA SHOWING A MUCH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAN            
24 HOURS AGO AS WELL.  THE COMING WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WINDY AS                  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON................ 078/045 077/045 077 48000                            
GALLUP.................... 076/037 075/038 071 48000                            
GRANTS.................... 078/041 074/041 071 48000                            
GLENWOOD.................. 084/045 082/050 075 48000                            
CHAMA..................... 068/029 068/029 067 48000                            
LOS ALAMOS................ 075/044 075/043 069 48000                            
RED RIVER................. 067/031 064/030 064 48000                            
TAOS...................... 075/038 074/036 073 48000                            
SANTA FE.................. 077/043 076/041 070 48000                            
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 080/045 078/043 073 48000                            
ESPANOLA.................. 082/045 081/042 074 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 084/055 081/054 077 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 085/049 084/049 077 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 079/052 079/052 074 48000                            
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 084/055 082/053 074 48000                            
SOCORRO................... 085/053 085/052 082 48000                            
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 075/047 076/045 070 48000                            
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 078/041 079/041 074 48000                            
CARRIZOZO................. 088/051 083/055 084 48000                            
RUIDOSO................... 080/050 075/055 078 48000                            
RATON..................... 074/039 079/040 078 48120                            
LAS VEGAS................. 076/044 077/047 074 48110                            
ROY....................... 074/047 080/048 080 48110                            
CLAYTON................... 072/050 082/051 084 48120                            
SANTA ROSA................ 086/053 087/054 088 48000                            
TUCUMCARI................. 085/055 090/056 090 48110                            
FORT SUMNER............... 089/054 089/056 090 48110                            
CLOVIS.................... 086/058 090/055 088 48120                            
PORTALES.................. 088/058 090/056 089 48120                            
ROSWELL................... 094/062 093/060 092 48010                            
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
RED FLAG WARNING THIS PM/EVE NMZ103-105-107-108                                 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED PM/EVE NMZ103-107-108.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
350 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR MAP FEATURES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  FLOW WILL PERSIST                
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS TO             
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE              
FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY                 
MONDAY...THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST IS ONCE AGAIN FORCING ITS WAY INTO            
ILN'S WEATHER PICTURE.                                                          
SURFACE MAP HAS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF STL WITH A WARM FRONT                
EXTENDING THROUGH CVG.  THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION             
TODAY.  AIR IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH LI OF -8            
PREDICTED BY THE RUC FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO AT 15Z TODAY.                           
ETA GENERALLY HAS LESS CONTAMINATION FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SO            
IT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.                                                      
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN TODAY (CONCERN MAY BE TOO MILD A WORD) IS               
MCS OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.  MCS IS MAKING A            
BEELINE TO ILN.  I EXPECT MCS TO REMAIN INTACT AS THE FRONT LIFTS               
NORTH AND THUS WILL BE RAISING POPS TO CATEGORICAL.  SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #284 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR WESTERN 2/3RD IN                
LIGHT OF THE MCS' APPROACH. MCS IS LEAVING AREA OF HIGHEST                      
HELICITY...SO I EXPECT MAIN THREAT FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT                 
CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT OF BOOKEND VORTICES.                       
REST OF FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH FRONT REMAINING              
IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN DROPPING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL STAY            
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY.                                  
DUE TO FAST MOVING MCS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
TEMPS:  LOWERED TODAY A BIT DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.               
REST OF TEMP FORECAST CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CONIGLIO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO STALL THIS             
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... INTO WESTERN                 
NORTH TEXAS... MUCH LIKE THE SCENE LAST SUNDAY.  THE MAIN                       
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND ARE THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD              
BE STRONGER TODAY... AND THE CAP WEAKER.  THIS WILL PROBABLY ALLOW              
STORMS TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT... THEN LIKELY SPREAD              
EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE                
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ONLY WARRANTS 30-40 PERCENT POPS.  CAPE                  
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE FORECAST BY THE RUC/ETA SHOULD               
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.                                                    
THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS                   
OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.  THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...               
THOUGH... BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO                 
FRIDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DAY... AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL.              
HAVE PUT THE HIGHER POPS ON THOSE DAYS.                                         
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BLUNTED QUITE A BIT IN NORTHERN                    
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THAT                 
AREA.  HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  88  68 /  40  30  20  20                              
HOBART OK         89  63  91  66 /  30  20  10  20                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  20                              
GAGE OK           78  57  86  60 /  30  30  20  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     80  60  83  65 /  40  40  40  20                              
DURANT OK         90  70  91  70 /  20  20  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23 = CMS                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
1110 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE INLAND W/C COUNTIES                  
   AND INLAND SW COUNTIES...                                                    
REST OF DISCUSSION SAME EXCEPT FOR WARNING SECTION.                             
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE FA. LATEST                    
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FL STRAITS...SW OF                      
THE UPPER KEYS. RUC HAS RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX AND THE W GULF                      
BUILDING EAST TODAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL AND                     
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON                     
AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. PUBLIC ZONES LOOK GOOD AND WILL                      
NOT UPDATE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE THIS AFTER-                  
NOON WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER TO ISSUE                     
RED FLAG. AM LEANING TOWARD ONE FOR THE INTERIOR BUT WILL GET                   
A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF T/TD TRENDS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION.                 
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING THIS                        
 AFTERNOON FOR SUMTER...POLK...HIGHLANDS...HARDEE...DE SOTO                     
 AND INTERIOR LEE AND CHARLOTTE.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
928 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE FA. LATEST                    
WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FL STRAITS...SW OF                      
THE UPPER KEYS. RUC HAS RIDGE ALOFT OVER TX AND THE W GULF                      
BUILDING EAST TODAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL AND                     
NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON                     
AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. PUBLIC ZONES LOOK GOOD AND WILL                      
NOT UPDATE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE THIS AFTER-                  
NOON WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHETHER TO ISSUE                     
RED FLAG. AM LEANING TOWARD ONE FOR THE INTERIOR BUT WILL GET                   
A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS OF T/TD TRENDS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION.                 
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
939 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REMOVE THE MORNING RAIN            
REFERENCE...AND ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR SOME LOCATIONS.              
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                
THE 12Z GYX SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE DEPTH OF THE INVERSION TO BE ABOUT              
4800 FEET...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THAT LAYER.  THE LAYER               
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS DEEP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE ETL PROFILER                
AT CONCORD SHOWS THE DEPTH CLOSER TO 3000 FEET.                                 
THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THE LAST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE                
EASTERN ZONES...BUT FOG AND DRIZZLE REMAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE             
ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER.                                                             
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...THE FORECAST QUESTIONS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL            
FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND THE POTENTIAL                
FOR PRECIPITATION.                                                              
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FEW BREAKS AS CLOSE AS WESTERN              
MA AND WESTERN CT THIS MORNING.  THESE BREAKS COULD BECOME BIGGER               
AS THE INSOLATION HELPS BREAK THE INVERSION DOWN.  BASED ON THIS...             
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ZONES COULD SEE               
SOME BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE                   
UPDATED FORECAST.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW BREAKS IN NORTHERN NEW             
HAMPSHIRE AS WELL...AS THE INVERSION ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER                
MAY BE BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL.                                           
ELSEWHERE...THE INVERSION APPEARS TO BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF BREAKS...AND CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.                      
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE 13Z TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO INDICATE             
THAT...SINCE INVERSION WILL PROBABLY NOT BREAK...HIGH TEMPERATURES              
OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY BE TOO WARM.  BASED ON HIGH               
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY...WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT FOR TODAY.                      
FINALLY...EVEN WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...           
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  RUC            
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION PUT DOWN BY               
THE DRYING SHOWN BY THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION.            
THIS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER.                                               
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST EXPECTED THIS MORNING.                  
ON THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS GENERALLY NE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS              
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE WEAK                 
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH IS FUNNELING THE FLOW.  THIS SHOULD                    
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM...WENT CLOSE TO GFS FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS OF                
FCST. LAST OF THE -SHRA MVG THRU NOW. KEPT A CHC OF -SHRA THRU PTN OF           
MORNING FOR EASTERN ZONES THEN DRY IT OUT UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT            
WHEN NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/S FOR TEMPS            
AND POPS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (12Z/8AM WED AND BEYOND)...WEAK SWLY FLOW BECOMES MORE               
ZONAL BY LATE WEEK THOUGH IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE                 
FLOW. 00Z SOLNS APPEAR CONSISTENT ON TIMING EXCPT THEY NOW INDICATE             
THAT LEFTOVER QPF PSBL SAT AM.  FOR NOW WILL CONTU WTH CRNT FCST.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO FLAGS EXPCTD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
HAYES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1126 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A BAND OF RAIN IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN                      
MCV...WITH LIFT BEING ENHANCED ALONG A REGION OF 850-700MB                      
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. QPF FROM THIS AREA OF RAINFALL HAS BEEN                
JUST UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON            
THE FLOODING SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN            
THE WAKE OF THIS MCV SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION            
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.                                                          
WILL HAVE TO WATCH A SURFACE TROUGH NOW OVER WISCONSIN AS IT WORKS              
INTO SE MICHIGAN AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. THE 12Z ETA AND LATEST RUC            
SHOW MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN/OHIO              
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD            
SUPPRESS SURFACE HEATING. THUS WILL CARRY JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS              
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH...KEEPING MENTION              
OF THUNDER CONFINED TO THE DETROIT AREA SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE                   
INSTABILITY AXIS. WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH...WILL                
REMOVE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY.                                     
DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE WILL BE TO             
LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY WHERE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE HURON WILL                  
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL WARMING.                                     
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 210 AM                                             
TOUGH CALL...BUT IT APPEARS WE ARE GOING TO ESCAPE TODAY WITHOUT                
SEEING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL.                                                      
00Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATING A STEEP INVERSION OVER SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN...KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS             
THE REGION. IN FACT...EVEN A FEW REPORTS OF A LITTLE LIGHT                      
RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CWA.                                 
CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS TELLS THE STORY...MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST               
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. GFS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THIS CONVECTION AND             
WILL BE DISCOUNTED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER ANALYSIS                  
SHOWING A STRONG JET (150 KNOTS) PUSHING THROUGH THE FOUR                       
CORNERS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA THIS               
MORNING SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO                
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. 00Z MESOETA/ETAXX INDICATING MCV WEAKENING             
AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY            
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SUBSIDENCE IN THE                 
WAKE OF THE MCV DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY ALLOW FOR A GOOD                 
BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING               
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MESOETA INDICATING VERY CONCERNING                     
INSTABILITY BY 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN (LI'S NEAR -10 C               
AND CAPES UP TOWARD 3800 J/KG). THE GOOD NEWS IS WARM AIR AROUND                
5000 FEET WILL REQUIRE A CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE MID 70S LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON. DON'T THINK WE WILL SEE SURFACE TEMPS THAT WARM                      
TODAY...AS WE STRUGGLE TO WARMUP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LEFTOVER             
CLOUD DEBRIS. ALSO...MESOETA INDICATING SURFACE BASED DEW POINTS                
CLIMBING TO 70 DEGREES WHICH MAY BE A STRETCH. WOULD EXPECT STORMS              
TO FIRE UP OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY...AND GENERALLY REMAIN                 
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. DEBATED WHETHER OR NOT TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE            
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO. WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SPC AND               
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-69. HOWEVER...FEEL BEST            
CHANCE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER. OBVIOUSLY...ANY STRONG             
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WOULD DEPOSIT VERY HEAVY                  
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.                               
COOL WEATHER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                      
LONGWAVE TROUGH SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.                
GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WITH                    
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70                    
DEGREES. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS TO             
THE CLOUDS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.                  
CANADIAN/GFS/ETA/EUROPEAN ALL SHOWING NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR                        
THURSDAY MOVING IN A LITTLE SLOWER. WILL DELAY POPS UNTIL THURSDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EXTEND INTO THE NIGHT HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK             
TO BE AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SO POTENTIAL OF SEEING UP                
TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.                                                      
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY....BEFORE BEING SHUNTED TO THE EAST LATE                 
SATURDAY. LARGE CUTOFF EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS             
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO THE STORMY WEATHER OVER               
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1117 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST RADAR DATA SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS                
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AM. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH               
BETTER FORCING ALONG SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER NW                 
ONTARIO INTO WRN UPPER MICHIGAN PER MSAS DATA AND SFC OBS. 850 TO 5H            
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ON THE RISE THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC            
AND ETA AS THE 5H LOW OVER MANITOBA LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...WITH                
RESULTING 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE ON THE INCREASE.                       
WL TREND BACK ON POPS OVER THE WRN U.P. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WL             
NOT COMPLETELY DROP MENTION OF PCPN DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY AND            
DELAYED PASSAGE OF 7H TROF. FURTHER E...WL BUMP POPS UP A BIT AS SFC            
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADVECTION                   
CONTINUES FOR A TIME INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ALBEIT SFC                      
CONVERGENCE THE MAIN DRIVING MECHANISM.                                         
INCREASING 850-500 MB Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE               
WRN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. COMBINED WITH INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL                
FLOW FROM THE SFC UP THROUGH 7H SUPPORTS STRONGER WINDS IN THIS                 
AREA. WL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT...WHICH WL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY            
CRITERIA ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SHORES.                                          
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND               
WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE W                 
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...TEMPS TO ONLY REBOUND SLOWLY THROUGHOUT              
THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMP FORECASTS SHOW HIGHS RANGING FROM                   
AROUND 60 ALONG THE WI BORDER AND FAR W TO THE MID 50 E. SLIGHTLY               
HIGHER TEMPS OVER THE W REASONABLE AS THERE WL BE A FEW BREAKS LATER            
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT ANY BREAKS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FILL IN RATHER            
QUICKLY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS OVER THAT AREA REMAIN IN THE UPPER                  
50S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST HIGHS. THUS WL NOT MAKE ANY                
CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMP FORECASTS FOR THIS UPDATE.                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT               
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE ZONES.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
1007 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS             
MORNING. APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING WITH SURFACE FRONT                
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE THAN                   
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. SENT A              
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
655 AM TUE...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST             
TWO HOURS WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  AFTER A VERY BUSY             
NIGHT MONITORING RADAR AND RIVERS, I'VE MADE SOME UPDATES EARLY THIS            
MORNING AFTER ANALYZING MORE SURFACE DATA AND MODEL GRIDS.  WITH THE            
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GONE THIS MORNING, I CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR             
PAOLA TO BOONVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD OR            
WILL BE IN FLOOD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH             
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
STORMS OVERNIGHT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEEP INTO NORTHERN                  
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  LOTS OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION             
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT OF THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS                       
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT FROM QUINCY TO NEVADA WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY              
TODAY.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE IT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH            
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT            
WILL BE VERY MOIST SO ANY RIPPLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS                     
AFTERNOON MAY SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT               
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.               
BY LATE TONIGHT THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER                  
OKLAHOMA CAUSING 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 12C INTO KANSAS AND CENTRAL             
MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH (1.25IN). THE BEST CHANCES FOR             
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, 60 PERCENT                    
COVERAGE, BUT NOT HIGH AMOUNTS.  I DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT THE DAY                
CREW WILL NEED TO POST A FLOOD WATCH.                                           
KOCH                                                                            
445 AM TUE...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO SEDALIA.              
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ROUNDS OF STRONG                  
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 ALONG THE 850MB FRONT.  RUC               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT HAS BEEN DRIFTING            
SOUTH SLOWLY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA TO FORT SCOTT TO               
WARSAW. WIND PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OKLAHOMA HAS            
VEERED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS.  THIS VEERING TREND SHOULD             
FOCUS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION                 
WANES.                                                                          
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR IGNITION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. I SUSPECT THAT              
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  MY INITIAL THINKING WAS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI                
RIVER, BUT THE FOCUS MAY BE WELL SOUTH OF BUTLER AND CLINTON. WITH              
THE WEATHER STARTING TO CALM DOWN A BIT I MAY RE-EXAMINE THIS FOR AN            
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                      
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO                
SEDALIA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH NOON. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
HOURS I WILL EXAMINE RADAR TRENDS. WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL            
JET, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH BEFORE IT'S EXPIRATION            
TIME OF NOON.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                   
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT TODAY. AT THIS TIME, IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI                  
TONIGHT, SO I DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN IN THE PLEASANT HILL                  
FORECAST AREA, BUT I COULD BE CLOSE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
STREAMING NORTH OUT OF TEXAS MAY RIDE OVERTOP THE 850MB FRONT AND               
PRODUCE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AT THIS TIME MY                 
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN             
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE                                                                       
MO...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
655 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST             
TWO HOURS WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  AFTER A VERY BUSY             
NIGHT MONITORING RADAR AND RIVERS, I'VE MADE SOME UPDATES EARLY THIS            
MORNING AFTER ANALYZING MORE SURFACE DATA AND MODEL GRIDS.  WITH THE            
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GONE THIS MORNING, I CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR             
PAOLA TO BOONVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD OR            
WILL BE IN FLOOD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH             
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
STORMS OVERNIGHT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEEP INTO NORTHERN                  
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  LOTS OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION             
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT OF THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS                       
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT FROM QUINCY TO NEVADA WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY              
TODAY.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE IT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH            
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT            
WILL BE VERY MOIST SO ANY RIPPLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS                     
AFTERNOON MAY SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT               
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.               
BY LATE TONIGHT THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER                  
OKLAHOMA CAUSING 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 12C INTO KANSAS AND CENTRAL             
MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH (1.25IN). THE BEST CHANCES FOR             
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, 60 PERCENT                    
COVERAGE, BUT NOT HIGH AMOUNTS.  I DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT THE DAY                
CREW WILL NEED TO POST A FLOOD WATCH.                                           
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
445 AM...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO SEDALIA.              
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ROUNDS OF STRONG                  
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 ALONG THE 850MB FRONT.  RUC               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT HAS BEEN DRIFTING            
SOUTH SLOWLY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA TO FORT SCOTT TO               
WARSAW. WIND PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OKLAHOMA HAS            
VEERED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS.  THIS VEERING TREND SHOULD             
FOCUS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION                 
WANES.                                                                          
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR IGNITION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. I SUSPECT THAT              
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  MY INITIAL THINKING WAS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI                
RIVER, BUT THE FOCUS MAY BE WELL SOUTH OF BUTLER AND CLINTON. WITH              
THE WEATHER STARTING TO CALM DOWN A BIT I MAY RE-EXAMINE THIS FOR AN            
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                      
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO                
SEDALIA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH NOON. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
HOURS I WILL EXAMINE RADAR TRENDS. WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL            
JET, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH BEFORE IT'S EXPIRATION            
TIME OF NOON.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                   
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT TODAY. AT THIS TIME, IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI                  
TONIGHT, SO I DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN IN THE PLEASANT HILL                  
FORECAST AREA, BUT I COULD BE CLOSE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
STREAMING NORTH OUT OF TEXAS MAY RIDE OVERTOP THE 850MB FRONT AND               
PRODUCE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AT THIS TIME MY                 
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN             
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE                                                                       
MO...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1023 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE                
STATE SO HAVE LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE AND INCREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE IN           
THE ZONES.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004...FRONT REACHED CLAYTON           
AROUND 100 AM...AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD           
FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UP THROUGH LUBBOCK...ALSO UP THE PECOS               
RIVER VALLEY. ETA CRANKS OUT SOME PCPN OVER SE/EAST CENTRAL THIS                
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS NE. RUC ALSO GENERATES SOME PCPN             
BY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN SLOPES SANGRES. EVEN THE GFS WANTS TO PAINT              
SMALL AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL/SE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. AND ALL              
RELATIVELY CLOSE IN REGARDS TO THE BOUNDARY/S POSITION THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  WEAK VORTMAX SHOWS UP ON GFS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER               
SWLY FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY CONVERT THE LESS THAN 10           
POPS ALREADY IN GRIDS FOR THE AFTERNOON TO SLIGHT CHANCE.                       
DON/T SEE AS MUCH EVIDENCE FOR A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR TUESDAY            
NIGHT/WED THOUGH THERE IS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING VCNTY TX                     
PANHANDLE. LOOKS AS IF SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH MIGRATES            
INTO ERN NM TODAY IS SHUNTED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.                             
GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS WET AS 24 HOURS AGO IN THE WED/THURS                       
TIMEFRAME...WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE APPEARING                
MOST LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PCPN. LATEST MEX POPS HAVE BACKED              
OFF ESPECIALLY FOR THURS...AND ARE NOW MOSTLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE              
CATEGORY...WHICH IS WHAT/S ALREADY IN THE GRIDS. IT/S ALSO SLOWER TO            
MOVE THE CLOSED LOW OUT AS IT LINGERS OVER NM ERN BORDER UNTIL                  
MIDDAY FRIDAY. ETA SHOWING A MUCH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAN            
24 HOURS AGO AS WELL.  THE COMING WEEKEND STILL LOOKS WINDY AS                  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON................ 078/045 077/045 077 16000                            
GALLUP.................... 076/037 075/038 071 16000                            
GRANTS.................... 075/041 074/041 071 16000                            
GLENWOOD.................. 080/045 082/050 075 16000                            
CHAMA..................... 065/029 068/029 067 16000                            
LOS ALAMOS................ 070/044 075/043 069 16000                            
RED RIVER................. 065/031 064/030 064 16000                            
TAOS...................... 072/038 074/036 073 16000                            
SANTA FE.................. 071/043 076/041 070 16000                            
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 074/045 078/043 073 16000                            
ESPANOLA.................. 077/045 081/042 074 16000                            
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 080/055 081/054 077 16000                            
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 081/049 084/049 077 16000                            
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 074/052 079/052 074 16000                            
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 080/055 082/053 074 16000                            
SOCORRO................... 080/053 085/052 082 16000                            
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 069/047 076/045 070 16000                            
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 073/041 079/041 074 16000                            
CARRIZOZO................. 080/051 083/055 084 16000                            
RUIDOSO................... 078/050 075/055 078 16000                            
RATON..................... 074/039 079/040 078 16120                            
LAS VEGAS................. 075/044 077/047 074 16110                            
ROY....................... 070/047 080/048 080 16110                            
CLAYTON................... 072/050 082/051 084 16120                            
SANTA ROSA................ 073/053 087/054 088 16000                            
TUCUMCARI................. 073/055 089/056 090 16110                            
FORT SUMNER............... 077/054 089/056 090 16110                            
CLOVIS.................... 077/058 090/055 088 16120                            
PORTALES.................. 078/058 090/056 089 16120                            
ROSWELL................... 085/062 093/060 092 16010                            
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WED PM/EVE NMZ103-107-108.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
16                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1221 PM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
QUICK UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF TIMING OF PCPN FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR WEST. LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS LK                   
ERIE/NW PA/NE OH HAS HELD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY                 
THOUGHT...AND COULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE "BECOMING" QUALIFIER FROM "PARTLY              
SUNNY" FOR AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER...AS THESE ZONES HAVE                
ALREADY BROKEN OUT INTO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.           
*********************** 1105 AM AFD *******************************             
THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED IN             
UNDER LOW CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS               
TRAPPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 825 MB                
(PER THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING). A CLEARING LINE IS SLOWLY WORKING NE               
FROM PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING OCCURRING AROUND THE EDGES              
OF THE LOW DECK...HOWEVER MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS                
RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM NE OHIO/LAKE ERIE...THOUGH THIS IS STARTING            
TO THIN A BIT AS IT RUNS INTO THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN                
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                          
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES. THIS PROCESS WILL BE FASTEST ACROSS THE            
WEST AND SLOWEST IN THE EAST...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HANG            
ON LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES/NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE               
MID AND UPPER CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE             
BREAKUP OF THE LOW DECK WHERE THE CLEARING PROCESS HAS NOT STARTED.             
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY                
SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE LOW                  
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...THE BAND OF SHOWERS                
ACROSS NE OHIO/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING THIS               
MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE             
INTO DRIER AIR/RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS                 
POINT...FEEL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE            
IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED THESE -SHRA IN            
THE FORECAST. ANY CHANCES OF PCPN LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE MODELS UNIVERSALLY BRING DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W              
ENERGY AND SOME MODEST UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE LFQ OF AN UPPER            
JET STREAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 21Z OR SO. FEEL THAT            
THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES             
STILL LOOK VERY REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA/RUC ONLY REALLY                
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER (CAPES OF 500-600 J/KG               
AND NEGATIVE LI'S) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH LOOKS            
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST             
AMOUNT OF SUN ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS AND A LINGERING CAP                  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER PER THE 06Z ETA BUFKIT                     
SOUNDINGS...HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THIS AREA FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
HAVE ALSO TWEAKED WINDS/TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...GENERALLY               
GOING A BIT LOWER ON THE TEMPS/LIGHTER ON THE WINDS. ALL                        
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. THIS               
MORNING'S AFD FOLLOWS BELOW...                                                  
************************** EARLY AM AFD *****************************           
A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW               
YORK CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE             
BEING REPORTED FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KFZY/KART. WOULD LIKE TO BE                    
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TODAY'S FCST HOWEVER EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW            
TO BURN OFF TODAY. ETA BUFKIT HOLDS CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH 18Z. BY THEN, MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING             
FROM THE WEST THUS SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX            
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF THIS.                                       
MODELS A TAD FASTER ON NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS INTO            
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CWA            
AGAIN PLACED IN THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM                
MOVES EAST. WHILE TSTMS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT BELIEVE              
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH BETTER UPPER                
LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS AND OUR OUR LACK OF SUN/HEATING.                         
CHC POPS HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TO OUR                 
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE            
WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST.                                     
HYDROWISE...AREA SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM DELUGE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF            
DAYS. RIVERS/CREEKS RUNNING HIGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART ARE RECEDING.            
GARBUTT/CHURCHVILLE CONTINUE THEIR SLOW RISE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED              
TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BOONVILLE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND             
UPDATED NERFC FORECAST CRESTS IS JUST AT 10' (FS)IN THE NEXT COUPLE             
OF HOURS.                                                                       
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CREATE             
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT                 
DRIZZLE AND FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR AT                 
TIMES TIL AROUND 14Z. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM            
ROCHESTER WESTWARD BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT             
WATERTOWN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING            
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING.                                               
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...JJR/JML                                                                
EARLY MORNING AVIATION DISCUSSION...JJP                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1105 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED IN             
UNDER LOW CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS               
TRAPPED UNDER A VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT ABOUT 825 MB                
(PER THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING). A CLEARING LINE IS SLOWLY WORKING NE               
FROM PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING OCCURRING AROUND THE EDGES              
OF THE LOW DECK...HOWEVER MORE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS                
RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM NE OHIO/LAKE ERIE...THOUGH THIS IS STARTING            
TO THIN A BIT AS IT RUNS INTO THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE CURRENTLY IN                
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                          
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS DIURNAL MIXING CONTINUES. THIS PROCESS WILL BE FASTEST ACROSS THE            
WEST AND SLOWEST IN THE EAST...AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HANG            
ON LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES/NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE               
MID AND UPPER CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE             
BREAKUP OF THE LOW DECK WHERE THE CLEARING PROCESS HAS NOT STARTED.             
HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE A MENTION OF BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY                
SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE LOW                  
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...THE BAND OF SHOWERS                
ACROSS NE OHIO/CENTRAL LAKE ERIE HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING THIS               
MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS IT PUSHES FURTHER NE             
INTO DRIER AIR/RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT THIS                 
POINT...FEEL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE            
IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED THESE -SHRA IN            
THE FORECAST. ANY CHANCES OF PCPN LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON...WHEN THE MODELS UNIVERSALLY BRING DECENT MID-LEVEL S/W              
ENERGY AND SOME MODEST UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE LFQ OF AN UPPER            
JET STREAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 21Z OR SO. FEEL THAT            
THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED CHANCE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES             
STILL LOOK VERY REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA/RUC ONLY REALLY                
SUGGEST SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER (CAPES OF 500-600 J/KG               
AND NEGATIVE LI'S) DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH LOOKS            
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THAT THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO SEE THE GREATEST             
AMOUNT OF SUN ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS AND A LINGERING CAP                  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER PER THE 06Z ETA BUFKIT                     
SOUNDINGS...HAVE PULLED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THIS AREA FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
HAVE ALSO TWEAKED WINDS/TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST OBS...GENERALLY               
GOING A BIT LOWER ON THE TEMPS/LIGHTER ON THE WINDS. ALL                        
GRIDDED AND TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. THIS               
MORNING'S AFD FOLLOWS BELOW...                                                  
************************** PREVIOUS AFD *****************************           
A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW               
YORK CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE             
BEING REPORTED FROM KBUF/KIAG TO KFZY/KART. WOULD LIKE TO BE                    
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT TODAY'S FCST HOWEVER EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW            
TO BURN OFF TODAY. ETA BUFKIT HOLDS CLOUDS PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE               
AREA THROUGH 18Z. BY THEN, MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL BE APPROACHING             
FROM THE WEST THUS SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED MAX            
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BECAUSE OF THIS.                                       
MODELS A TAD FASTER ON NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS INTO            
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CWA            
AGAIN PLACED IN THE DAY ONE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM                
MOVES EAST. WHILE TSTMS ARE INCLUDED IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT BELIEVE              
SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION WITH BETTER UPPER                
LEVEL SUPPORT/DYNAMICS AND OUR OUR LACK OF SUN/HEATING.                         
CHC POPS HOLD ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TO OUR                 
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE            
WEEK. NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FORECAST.                                     
HYDROWISE...AREA SLOWLY RECOVERING FROM DELUGE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF            
DAYS. RIVERS/CREEKS RUNNING HIGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART ARE RECEDING.            
GARBUTT/CHURCHVILLE CONTINUE THEIR SLOW RISE, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED              
TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. BOONVILLE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND             
UPDATED NERFC FORECAST CRESTS IS JUST AT 10' (FS)IN THE NEXT COUPLE             
OF HOURS.                                                                       
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CREATE             
MVFR TO IFR CIGS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT                 
DRIZZLE AND FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING LOWERING VSBYS TO MVFR AT                 
TIMES TIL AROUND 14Z. CIGS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM            
ROCHESTER WESTWARD BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT             
WATERTOWN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING            
ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD EVENING.                                               
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...JJR/JML                                                                
EARLY MORNING AVIATION DISCUSSION...JJP                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1040 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE CYCLONE            
TRACKING EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK TROF EXTENDING SOUTHWARD             
TOWARD N VIRGINIA. THIN SURFACE RIDGES EXTEND UP THROUGH WESTERN PA             
AND DOWN THROUGH ONTARIO.                                                       
COMPARISON OF MORNING SOUNDINGS AT PBZ/BUF WITH MODELS SHOWS MID                
LEVEL DRY AIR IS BEING UNDERDONE BY PROGS. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE IS 150-200 MB DEEP AT BUF SUGGESTING IT WILL BE TOUGH TO               
ERODE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NY. MOIST LAYER SHALLOW AT PBZ WHERE                 
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY PROGESSING NORTHEAST.            
BACK TO WEST WARM FRONT IS TRACKING INTO CENTRAL OHIO. FIRST WAVE OF            
THUNDERSTORMS FIZZLED IN STABLE AIR TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER                       
REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...AND RUC IS SUGGESTING THIS             
AREA MAY MAKE IT INTO WESTERN CWA BEFORE SUNSET.                                
WE HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER TIME CLEARING OVER SOUTHERN                
ZONES...AND HAVE INCREASED AMOUNT OF CLEARING IN AREAS WHICH BREAK              
OUT. WE ALSO INCREASED THE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.               
PADAVONA                                                                        
PREV DISC-                                                                      
LOW THICK CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT SOUTH INTO ALL BUT EXTREME S OF CWA.              
THIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE S EARLY THIS MORNING THEN RETURN N SLOWLY             
LATE THIS MORNING THEN WITH BETTER PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW              
SHIFTS TO SW AND INCREASES. SRN AREAS WILL HAVE MORE SUN AND WARMER             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE STORMY AGAIN AS A SHORT SHORT WAVE...UL                  
DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT REAR OF STRONG JET...AND WAA MOVE IN FROM OHIO              
VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOSTLY ELEVATED. SOME UNSTABLE LOW              
LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN S. THIS AREA WILL BE WARMEST FROM DAYTIME                  
SUNSHINE AND MIGHT GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT. AGAIN PUT IN             
A SLIGHT CHC OF SEVERE FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY.            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WED WITH COLD FRONTAL              
PASSAGE. FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SE OUT OF THE CWA LATE IN THE DAY.              
MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY THE ETA. HPC THINKS THE GFS HAS TOO MUCH                  
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. GFS SLOWER AND FURTHER N WITH PRECIP BULLSEYE.             
CANADIAN MORE LIKE ETA. AND ETA HANDLING LL MOISTURE OVER CWA BETTER            
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
LATE WED NGT INTO THU GET ANOTHER BREAK AS COOLER AIR RETURNS FROM              
N. LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S WED NGT AND COLDER ON             
THU NGT. WITHOUT A LARGE DRY HIGH PRESSURE FROST WILL NOT BE AN                 
ISSUE.                                                                          
EXTENDED (WED NITE - MON)...                                                    
DUE TO THE ACTIVE WX COULD NOT SPEND ALOT OF TIME ON THE XTNDD. BEST            
CHCS FOR PCPN APPEAR TO BE ON WED NGT DUE TO LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM            
DEPARTING S/WV; AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS NXT SYSTEM MOVS THRU; AND THEN               
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WMFNT SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR                    
SEASONABLE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS HAVE MOVED S TO ALL BUT AVP. IFR CIGS TO FZY JUST N OF                
SYR. THESE LOWER CIGS DUE TO TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON N SIDE OF            
COLD FRONT. ADDED MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH WEAK FLOW OF               
LAKE SOME DZ REPORTED AT SYR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE HARD TO GET              
RID OF UNTIL APPROACH OF STRONGER SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF              
SHORT WAVE. PRECIP TO MOVE IN THIS EVE BUT NOT REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS            
BELOW VFR UNTIL AFTER 06Z.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RIVERS IN HSA IN GOOD SHAPE WITH LITTLE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FALLING               
LAST FEW DAYS. HEAVIER PRECIP IN NRN CWA WHERE FINGER LAKES ARE                 
REGULATED AND MOHAWK IS EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN UCA.               
BLCK RIVER MAY GO TO FS TODAY OR TOMORROW.  BOTH MOHAWK AND BLACK IN            
ONEIDA COUNTY WHICH GOOD WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES LAST NIGHT. FOR               
TODAY DRY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN TONIGHT. WITH                       
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS WILL WAIT TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. FLOODING            
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH GOOD DYNAMICS  AND PWATS GOING BACK OVER 1             
INCH. IF ETA IS CLOSER NE PA AND SULLIVAN NY GET THERE TURN...BUT               
THESE AREAS CAN HANDLE MORE RAIN THAN NY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE                                                                       
PA...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/HYDRO...CHAMPNEY                                            
EXTENDED...BRADY                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1125 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS HAS FRNTL BNDRY NOW NORTH OF FCST AREA ACRS                
NORTH CNTRL OH.  WARM MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF FRNT WITH DEWPTS INTO              
M60S.  U60S/70 DEWPTS NOT FAR AWAY NOTED ON SFC MAP ACRS CNTRL                  
KY/TN.  ISOLD -SHRA MOVNG SOUTH AND EAST OF CMH ATTM ASSOCD WITH                
WEAK SFC CONV.                                                                  
FCST CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON THREAT FOR TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR               
STORMS THIS AFTN.  AC ASSOCD WITH DYING MCS SHIELD FROM EARLIER THIS            
MRNG SHIFTING EAST AND SCOURING.  IN ITS WAKE...LARGE AREA OF PTLY              
CLDY SKIES HAD DVLPD ACRS WESTERN OH...MUCH OF SRN 1/2 INDIANA AND              
CNTRL/EASTERN KY.  TEMPS HAD RISEN QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS INTO                  
M/U70S (CVG AT 76/SDF AT 79).  WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES EXPECTED INTO               
ERLY AFTN ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA...HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW                   
DEGREES.  ALSO BUMPED DEWPTS UP TO AROUND 70 IN SRN FCST AREA AS                
HIGHER DEWPT AIR PROGGED INTO REGION BY 18Z.                                    
12Z KILN SOUNDING INDCG ATMOSPHERE ALREADY UNSTABLE THIS MRNG AS                
SBCAPES APPCHG 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -4.  WEAK MORNING                 
INVERSION HAS BEEN ALL BUT ERODED...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDL               
CIN NOTED. ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE INTO ERLY AFTN               
WITH STRONG SFC HEATING. SPC INDCG THAT THEY ARE MONITORING DYING               
TSTM COMPLEX ACRS SRN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KY.  AS THESE REMNANTS               
MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST...EXPECT TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP.  CURRENT RUC/12Z             
META INDCG SBCAPES APPCHG 4000 J/KG BY MID AFTN ACRS SRN FCST AREA              
AND CONSIDERING MORNING SOUNDING DATA AND EXPECTED SUNSHINE...THIS              
IS PROBABLY NOT FAR OFF.  RUC ALSO INDCG BNDRY LYR SHEAR AND VGP                
VALUES WILL BE MODERATE INTO THE AFTN...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING                     
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS.  WBZERO NEAR 9KFT AND MAX DELTA                 
THETA-E VALUES APPCHG 20 K SUGGEST DMGG WINDS AND LRG HAIL WILL BE              
MAIN SVR THREATS. CONVECTIVE TEMP IN U70S WILL BE BREACHED SHORTLY              
ACRS MUCH OF FCST AREA...AND EXPECT TO SEE DVLPMNT BEGIN BTWN 17Z               
AND 19Z. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING HVY RAINERS.  HVY RAIN              
LKLY TO BE OF GREATER CONCERN TONIGHT AS FRNTL BNDRY LAYS OUT ACRS              
FCST AREA AND PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES.  WILL ISSUE SPS                    
HIGHLIGHTING SVR POTENTIAL FOR AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF             
I-70.                                                                           
MAIN UPDATE IS TO RAISE TEMPS AND DECREASE CLOUD COVER FOR AFTN.                
REST UNCHANGED.  ZFPILN OUT SHORTLY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RYAN                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
749 AM EDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONVECTION RAPIDLY DIMINISHING THIS MRNG WITH ONLY FEW -SHRA AND AN             
ISOLD RUMBLE OF THUNDER LEFT.  FRNTL BNDRY PROGRESSING NICELY ACRS              
FCST AREA ATTM...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM EAST CNTRL INDIANA...EAST TO            
JUST NORTH OF KILN AND PORTSMOUTH.  EXPECT BNDRY WILL BE NORTH OF               
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY LATE MRNG.  HAVE UPDATED TO READJUST POPS FOR               
TODAY...AND ATTEMPT TO INSERT SOME TIMING INTO EXPECTED CONVECTIVE              
DVLPMNT LATER TODAY.  NOW APPEARS THAT MAY HAVE SVRL HOURS OF QUIET             
WX BEFORE STORMS GET GOING IN HIGHLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF               
FRNT THIS AFTN.                                                                 
NO OTHER UPDATES TO FCST ATTM.  WILL LOOK AT 12Z KILN SOUNDING AND              
NEW MODEL DATA.  ANY ADDL ADJUSTMENTS WILL COME WITH THE MID MRNG               
UPDATE BTWN 15Z AND 16Z. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                               
RYAN                                                                            
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER AIR MAP FEATURES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  FLOW WILL PERSIST                
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS TO             
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING. COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE              
FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY                 
MONDAY...THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST IS ONCE AGAIN FORCING ITS WAY INTO            
ILN'S WEATHER PICTURE.                                                          
SURFACE MAP HAS LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF STL WITH A WARM FRONT                
EXTENDING THROUGH CVG.  THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION             
TODAY.  AIR IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH LI OF -8            
PREDICTED BY THE RUC FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO AT 15Z TODAY.                           
ETA GENERALLY HAS LESS CONTAMINATION FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND SO            
IT IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.                                                      
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN TODAY (CONCERN MAY BE TOO MILD A WORD) IS               
MCS OVER ILLINOIS/INDIANA AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.  MCS IS MAKING A            
BEELINE TO ILN.  I EXPECT MCS TO REMAIN INTACT AS THE FRONT LIFTS               
NORTH AND THUS WILL BE RAISING POPS TO CATEGORICAL.  SEVERE                     
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #284 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR WESTERN 2/3RD IN                
LIGHT OF THE MCS' APPROACH. MCS IS LEAVING AREA OF HIGHEST                      
HELICITY...SO I EXPECT MAIN THREAT FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BUT                 
CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT OF BOOKEND VORTICES.                       
REST OF FORECAST WILL BE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH FRONT REMAINING              
IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN DROPPING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL STAY            
WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT AND CHANCE WEDNESDAY.                                  
DUE TO FAST MOVING MCS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
TEMPS:  LOWERED TODAY A BIT DUE TO HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP.               
REST OF TEMP FORECAST CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.                               
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CONIGLIO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1045 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                     
CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD IN THE FA THIS MORNING...ESP IN WRN                 
SECS. STILL DECENT PRES RISES OVER WRN OK AT 15Z...SO EXPECT A                  
LITTLE MORE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FNT BEFORE IT STALLS LATER THIS AFTN            
FROM WRN N TX NEWD INTO CNTRL OK. THIS STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN               
FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN.  THICK CI WILL HAMPER WARMUP              
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SAT LOOPS SHOW SOME THINNING OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM W             
TX TOWARD SWRN ZONES. THIS MAY ALLOW THAT PORTION OF THE TO HEAT UP             
MORE THIS AFTN AND AID IN DESTABILIZATION.  WILL BUMP UP POPS FOR               
SWRN PORTIONS OF THE FA FOR THIS AFTN WITH BNDRY IN THE AREA AND                
MORE SUN.  WILL ALSO ADJUST MAX TEMPS AS TEMPS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY            
AS CAA AND CLD COVER EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPS COOLER THAN SHOWN IN                
CURRENT FCST.  STILL LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE TSTM ACTIVITY              
OVERNIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LVL JET INTERACTS WITH SFC BNDRY.                
02                                                                              
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
350 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO STALL THIS             
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... INTO WESTERN                 
NORTH TEXAS... MUCH LIKE THE SCENE LAST SUNDAY.  THE MAIN                       
DIFFERENCES THIS TIME AROUND ARE THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD              
BE STRONGER TODAY... AND THE CAP WEAKER.  THIS WILL PROBABLY ALLOW              
STORMS TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT... THEN LIKELY SPREAD              
EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE                
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION ONLY WARRANTS 30-40 PERCENT POPS.  CAPE                  
VALUES IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE FORECAST BY THE RUC/ETA SHOULD               
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS.                                                    
THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO WANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS                   
OKLAHOMA FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.  THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...               
THOUGH... BETWEEN UPPER WAVES.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO                 
FRIDAY AS A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DAY... AND PERHAPS SUNDAY AS WELL.              
HAVE PUT THE HIGHER POPS ON THOSE DAYS.                                         
THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BLUNTED QUITE A BIT IN NORTHERN                    
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AS COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS MOVE INTO THAT                 
AREA.  HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME IN THAT AREA FOR TODAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  88  68 /  40  30  20  20                              
HOBART OK         89  63  91  66 /  30  20  10  20                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  69  93  70 /  30  20  10  20                              
GAGE OK           78  57  86  60 /  30  30  20  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     80  60  83  65 /  40  40  40  20                              
DURANT OK         90  70  91  70 /  20  20  10  20                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23 = CMS                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
708 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FRONT SLICING ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES A BIT AHEAD OF PACE AND                 
WITH STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISES OVER PANHANDLE THAN EXPECTED.              
LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC RUNS NOW PUSH FRONT THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST             
AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY...THEN HOLD NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY AFTERNOON               
BEFORE WEAKENING AND VEERING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY EARLY THIS            
EVENING. WITH THE THICK CIRRUS SHIELD SPREAD OVER AREA NOW AND FRONT            
ABOUT TO ARRIVE...LOWERED MAXIMUMS MOST AREAS ANOTHER CATEGORY PLUS             
OR MINUS. COOL AIR MAY THREATEN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER TODAY                
ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. UPDATED MOST FIRST PERIOD GRIDS AND ISSUED                
UPDATED ZONE AND PFM FORECASTS.  MCQUEEN                                        
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/08                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
355 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME              
AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH SURFACE PRESSURE RISES TO ASSURE                     
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PASSAGE FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. LATEST MESO-ETA            
AGREES WITH THE RUC MOVING THE FRONT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND                 
SOUTH-CENTRAL COUNTIES BY MIDDAY BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT              
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS                
APPEARS CAPPED AND MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH AN            
ABUNDANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE MOISTURE              
PLUME TAPPING INTO THE ITCZ. BUT ADDED LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES                 
ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY             
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE A BIT                
MORE AROUND DARK AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS              
HELPING DESTABILIZE AN ELEVATED LAYER NEAR 850-700MB. AGREE WITH THE            
SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK AND ADDED LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EASTERN AND              
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH MENTION OF SEVERE FOR HAIL AND                
WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ZONES. MINOR CHANGES              
ALL-IN-ALL TO OTHER GRIDDED FORECAST ELEMENTS AT THIS TIME.  MCQUEEN            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS               
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH EXTENDS                
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.                 
WHERE THEY DIFFER IS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF LOW EJECTING OUT                 
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS                
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ETA IS SLOWEST WITH ECMWF AND UKMET                
SLIGHTLY FASTER THEN GFS. DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE EASTERN             
LOW ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY. WILL THUS CONTINUE SLIGHT OF POPS                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.                    
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHICH MODEL             
MAY BE RIGHT...AS GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE                
LATELY WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION AND CONTINUE CHANCE POPS                   
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT ON MOVING A LOW ALONG WASHINGTON COAST FRIDAY MORNING                 
EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES...INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND                   
INTO THE UPPER MID WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN SOME SLIGHT                  
DIFFERENCES ON THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER              
AS BEST DYNAMICS TO REMAIN NORTH OF AREA WILL CONTINUE DRY                      
FORECAST INTO BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. JV/08                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       87  55  91  56 /   0  10   0   0                                   
TULIA        88  58  92  57 /  20  20  10   0                                   
PLAINVIEW    88  62  92  61 /  20  20  10   0                                   
LEVELLAND    90  63  94  61 /  10  20   0   0                                   
LUBBOCK      90  65  94  62 /  10  20  10  10                                   
BROWNFIELD   91  65  95  64 /  10  20  10  10                                   
CHILDRESS    88  66  93  65 /  20  20  20  20                                   
SPUR         91  67  94  66 /  10  20  20  20                                   
ASPERMONT    94  70  94  68 /  10  20  20  20                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
05/08                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
235 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
SCTD SHRA/TSRA CONFINED MAINLY TO SRN AR THIS AFTN...ASSOCD WITH A              
SHORTWV MOVG THRU THE AREA. SFC CDFNT STILL NOTED TO THE NW OF AR...            
GENERALLY RUNNING ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OVER OK AND MO ATTM.                  
LATEST RUC STILL INDCG BULK OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR ALONG THE BNDRY             
INTO TNGT...WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY AFFECTING NRN AR INTO WED.                     
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST WILL BE RAIN CHCS AND                
AFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ETA HAVE                
DONE A POOR JOB WITH INITIALIZING PRECIP FIELDS. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A            
BETTER HANDLE ON SHORT TERM FCST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO IT/S            
SOLUTION.                                                                       
FLAT UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE NRN GULF WILL KEEP GENERALLY A WLY FLOW              
ALOFT ACRS AR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...SFC FNT IS EXPECTED              
TO STAY MEANDER MAINLY OVER SRN MO. FNT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR                
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHCS AS SEVERAL UPPER LVL SYSTEMS MOVE ACRS THE FA.             
HAVE CONTD TRENDS OF GOING FCST WITH HIGHER POPS PLACED OVR NRN                 
AR...WITH LESSER CHCS FURTHER S INTO THU. LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SEE A               
BREAK BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS LATER THU AND THU NIGHT.                            
MEANWHILE...UPPER TROF JUST OFF THE CA COAST IS PROGGED TO SHIFT                
SLOLY EWD ACRS THE SWRN STATES THRU THU. BY FRI...THE UPPER FEATURE             
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACRS THE MID             
SOUTH. THE GFS IS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE UPPER SYS OVER             
TIME AS IT APCHS AR. BOTTOM LINE WILL BE ANOTHER CHC OF SHRA/TSRA               
FOR THE FA ON FRI.                                                              
HAVE NOT STRAYED TOO FAR FROM MOS TEMPS THRU THE PD. CLOUDS AND                 
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON HIGH TEMPS...MAINLY OVER            
NRN AR EACH DAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                       
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC               
SCALE WITH JUST A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. LITTLE DIFFERENCE             
IN THE MODELS SEEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE DISCREPANCIES                   
BECOMING MORE APPARENT DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. WILL GO WITH AS BLEND OF             
MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE                     
CONSISTENT GFS.                                                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH BROAD                 
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WEAK               
RIPPLES EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WARRANT AT LEAST SLIGHT            
CHANCE POPS. SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE PAC NW TRANSLATES EAST WITH CUT            
OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN ITS BASE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW                 
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.                  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR              
HIGHER POPS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS             
TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE               
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MEX GUIDANCE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.                         
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44/56                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A BROAD ELONGATED TROUGH DOMINATES THE NATION TODAY...WITH THE                  
CENTRAL AXIS STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN                
CALIFORNIA. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND MODEL PROGS INDICATE THAT              
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL PINCH OFF INTO A CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES             
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK. THIS HAS LEFT A BROAD                
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. NEARER TO                
HOME...THE SURFACE FRONT THAT SPARKED MONDAYS SEVERE WEATHER HAD                
SUNK INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MID AFTERNOON...AND EXTENDED FROM                
JOPLIN NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS. THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO              
FIRE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT LATE             
THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS WERE GETTING HELP FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW            
ON THE NOSE OF A 300 MB JET STREAK THAT WAS EDGING INTO MISSOURI                
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED THE ELEVATED FRONT JUST TO THE            
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TAKING THE BULK OF THE STORM              
ACTIVITY WITH IT. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET GETS             
GOING...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE SURFACE AND               
ELEVATED BOUNDARIES. BUT...WITH THE WINDS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE              
BOUNDARY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA.                                                                           
DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION MOST 1 HOUR                     
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE BELOW 1 INCH...AND MANY RIVERS AND              
STREAMS ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...ANY                     
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN MODERATE RAINFALL MIGHT EXPERIENCE             
FLOODING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING              
MORE THAN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT                       
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY I HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD                
WATCHES. BUT...THIS WILL REQUIRE MONITORING OVERNIGHT.                          
FOR WEDNESDAY...I HAVE PUSHED TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY IN MOST                     
LOCATIONS. COOL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS                
SUPPORT MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS...BUT THE GFS LOOKS TO COOL.                       
ADDITIONALLY...I HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING                 
HOURS AS A WEAK IMPULSE...ON THE TAIL OF THE JET MOVING THROUGH THE             
CENTRAL PLAINS...TRAVERSES THE MIDWEST.                                         
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SPIN UP A LARGE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE                
UPPER MIDWEST. THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT                
THAT THIS LOW WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY            
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE             
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR SUNDAY THE            
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL BRING              
THE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK                
TOWARDS SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                           
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
1007 AM..                                                                       
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS             
MORNING. APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING WITH SURFACE FRONT                
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH. DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE THAN                   
SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER POSSIBLE. SENT A              
QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
NRR                                                                             
655 AM TUE...                                                                   
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LAST             
TWO HOURS WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.  AFTER A VERY BUSY             
NIGHT MONITORING RADAR AND RIVERS, I'VE MADE SOME UPDATES EARLY THIS            
MORNING AFTER ANALYZING MORE SURFACE DATA AND MODEL GRIDS.  WITH THE            
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GONE THIS MORNING, I CANCELED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR             
PAOLA TO BOONVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD OR            
WILL BE IN FLOOD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH             
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.              
STORMS OVERNIGHT PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEEP INTO NORTHERN                  
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING.  LOTS OF LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION             
WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT OF THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS                       
AFTERNOON.  THE FRONT FROM QUINCY TO NEVADA WILL SINK SOUTH SLOWLY              
TODAY.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THE IT WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH            
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.  THE AIRMASS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT            
WILL BE VERY MOIST SO ANY RIPPLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS                     
AFTERNOON MAY SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT HEAVY RAIN IS NOT               
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE MEAGER INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.               
BY LATE TONIGHT THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER                  
OKLAHOMA CAUSING 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 12C INTO KANSAS AND CENTRAL             
MISSOURI. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH (1.25IN). THE BEST CHANCES FOR             
RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, 60 PERCENT                    
COVERAGE, BUT NOT HIGH AMOUNTS.  I DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT THE DAY                
CREW WILL NEED TO POST A FLOOD WATCH.                                           
KOCH                                                                            
445 AM TUE...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS              
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO SEDALIA.              
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH ROUNDS OF STRONG                  
STORMS FORMING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 35 ALONG THE 850MB FRONT.  RUC               
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 850MB THETA-E GRADIENT HAS BEEN DRIFTING            
SOUTH SLOWLY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA TO FORT SCOTT TO               
WARSAW. WIND PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET OVER OKLAHOMA HAS            
VEERED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS.  THIS VEERING TREND SHOULD             
FOCUS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING AS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION                 
WANES.                                                                          
IT IS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE THIS                      
AFTERNOON FOR IGNITION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. I SUSPECT THAT              
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS THIS MORNING WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY INTO                    
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  MY INITIAL THINKING WAS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES OF 40 TO 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI                
RIVER, BUT THE FOCUS MAY BE WELL SOUTH OF BUTLER AND CLINTON. WITH              
THE WEATHER STARTING TO CALM DOWN A BIT I MAY RE-EXAMINE THIS FOR AN            
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                      
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO PAOLA TO WARRENSBURG TO                
SEDALIA AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH NOON. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
HOURS I WILL EXAMINE RADAR TRENDS. WITH THE VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL            
JET, WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH BEFORE IT'S EXPIRATION            
TIME OF NOON.  THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE                   
POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND 850MB FRONT TODAY. AT THIS TIME, IT                 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI                  
TONIGHT, SO I DON'T ANTICIPATE HEAVY RAIN IN THE PLEASANT HILL                  
FORECAST AREA, BUT I COULD BE CLOSE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
STREAMING NORTH OUT OF TEXAS MAY RIDE OVERTOP THE 850MB FRONT AND               
PRODUCE ELEVATED STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.  AT THIS TIME MY                 
FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH RELATIVELY LOW RAIN             
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE                                                                       
MO...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS               
DROPPED SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHERLY                
OVER OUR NE WYOMING ZONES AND WILL SOON SWITCH TO THE SOUTH/SW OVER             
FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY OVER THE             
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH AND A LOW PRESSURE              
CENTER CROSSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.                                  
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN            
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH RUC SHOWING 50-150J/KG OVER PTNS OF NE WY AND SW              
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA THIS               
EVENING...ALREADY DEVELOPING SHOWERS OVER NC WYOMING. EXPECT TO SEE             
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MOVE INTO NE WYOMING AND              
SW SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS                  
OVERNIGHT ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN SD ZONES.                                      
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ON THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER OUR            
FORECAST AREA LEADING TO DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY              
IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY...PUTTING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER                  
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY             
AFT/NIGHT.                                                                      
.SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE PLAINS REGION              
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN             
AND WILL BE DETERMINING FACTOR FOR PCPN CHANCES EACH DAY. 12Z GFS IS            
ADVERTISING FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND                   
SIMILAR TO ECMWF. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS             
AND STORMS WILL BE SAT AFT INTO SUN AS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND            
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WILL KEEP CHANCES INTO MONDAY               
ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION                 
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST.                                                 
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
10/27                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON APPROACHING THURSDAY SYSTEM.                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...WEATHERNIL AS ETA/NGM/GFS/RUC PROGS ALL BUILD               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERED FOG FOR LATE                  
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MIXY WIND CONDITIONS IN LOWER                 
LAYERS COMBINED WITH SHORT NIGHTTIME HOURS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG            
FORMATION.                                                                      
IN THE LONG TERM...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORT WAVE APPROACHING CWA IN             
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THURSDAY. SEVERAL FACTORS SUPPORT SPC SLIGHT RISK            
FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY. THIS INCLUDES DECENT LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE...THERMAL RIDGE AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SURFACE           
BASE ETA CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 COINCIDENT WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -5             
DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING. ETA TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE           
A LITTLE AHEAD OF FAVORED GFS...SO WILL HANG ONTO CONVECTION INTO               
THURSDAY EVENING FOR CWA FOR NOW.                                               
IN THE LONG LONG TERM...EVALUATION OF LONG RANGE PROGS POINT TO AN              
INCREASINGLY WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD INTO MEMORIAL WEEKEND AS NOW              
FAMILIAR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN RETURNS BY SATURDAY. AT THE MOMENT              
FEEL BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SATURDAY                
IFFY.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi