AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
245 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
EXPECTED ACTIVE CONVECTION DIDNT PAN OUT THIS EARLY AFTERNOON...                
COMBO OF WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN OF FRONT WHICH REMAINS SE ALA               
THRU FERNADINA BEACH...INCREASED CLOUDS SHUTTING OFF INSOLATION AND             
MID-LEVEL WARMING. STILL THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS              
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AND LATE AFTN-EVENING CONVECTION STILL GUD               
BET ALONG FRONT BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN THIRD OF CWA/FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS. BEYOND THIS EVENING...RUC              
MODEL WITH MID-UPPER DIVERGENCE WEAKENING ACROSS ERN BIG BEND WITH              
NVA MOVING IN BY 00Z. AT LOW-MID LEVELS DRIER AIR MOVING IN. FWC/FAN            
GUIDANCE RESPOND WITH LOW POPS THRU WED. ETA TIME SECTION WITH RAPID            
DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH THRU 48 HOURS. FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS                
ETA/AVN SFC/ 5H COMPARISONS PLACE SAGGING FRONT AND ASSOCD LOW                  
ACROSS SE HALF FL AND MAINLY ADJ ATLC WI AVN STRONGER AND FURTHER               
S/SW HOWEVER MOST OF ENERGY SHUD REMAIN E OF CWA WITH ANY NOTICEABLE            
EFFECT SEEN ON MARINE PACKAGE...I.E. HIER SEAS/WINDS BEGINNING                  
TOMORROW. OVERLAND BY TOMORROW...CWA BETWEEN MID-ATLC RIDGE AND COLD            
FRONT SO NE FLOW CONTS AND NO THREAT OD RISING TEMPS ON TAP THRU AT             
LEAST MID WEEK. FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABOVE WI POPS REMAINING AOB               
CLIMO AND TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL RANGES.                                     
EXTENDED: NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                                             
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH  73 94 71 93 3224                                                           
PFN  77 89 76 88 23-2                                                           
DHN  72 93 72 93 12-2                                                           
ABY  72 92 71 92 11-2                                                           
VLD  72 93 71 92 2113                                                           
RLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 031845  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1110 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
SATELLITE AND SFC OBC SHOW CLOUD DECK OVER N GA. THIS FITS WELL WITH            
RUC AND MESO-ETA MOISTURE FIELDS OVER N AND CENTRAL GA. HIER RH                 
SLOWLY SINKS S TODAY. A VERY WEAK SHOWER EVEN SHOWED UP BRIELFY THIS            
MORNING IN THE ATL AREA. MORNING FFC SOUNDING SHOWS WARMER AIR AT               
500 MB AND COOLER BELOW 700 MB WITH MODIFIED CAPE NEAR 1600. SFC                
FRONT LOCATION IS GENERALLY ALONG 70 DEWPOINT LINE...BUT A WEAK                 
RIDGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINT POKES INTO N GA THIS MORNING. MESO-ETA                 
SHOWS WEAK VORT FIELD HANGING AROUND OVER N GA TODAY ALSO. GIVEN ALL            
THIS...WILL ADD 20 PERCENT POPS TO ATL-AHN AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR                
AFTN. TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR OVER MOST OF                 
STATE TODAY. MAY BUMP UP WINDS A TAD IN A COUPLE OF AREAS.                      
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
DH                                                                              
 ga                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
811 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
WEAK BOUNDARY HARD TO LOCATE WITH ALL THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL                   
AND SOUTHEAST TX...BUT IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR                 
DALLAS TO NEAR LUFKIN INTO SOUTHWEST LA. ETA AND RUC HINT AT THETA E            
RIDGE BEING OVER EAST TX TONIGHT. THAT BEING THE CASE HAVE UPDATED              
EARLY TONIGHT TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER EAST TX                
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINS A TAD IN MOST AREAS AS                   
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE            
NORTHEAST. REWORDED SKY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR            
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND                
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THANKS FTW FOR COORD.             
04                                                                              
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 040105  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
WEAK BOUNDARY HARD TO LOCATE WITH ALL THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL                   
AND SOUTHEAST TX...BUT IT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR                 
DALLAS TO NEAR LUFKIN INTO SOUTHWEST LA. ETA AND RUC HINT AT THETA E            
RIDGE BEING OVER EAST TX TONIGHT. THAT BEING THE CASE HAVE UPDATED              
EARLY TONIGHT TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER EAST TX                
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MINS A TAD IN MOST AREAS AS                   
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE            
NORTHEAST. REWORDED SKY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS ALSO TO ACCOUNT FOR            
CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH AND                
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT. THANKS FTW FOR COORD.             
04                                                                              
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLCH 032355  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION FOR SEND TIME...                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
...UDATE FORECAST TO DROP THE BECOMING FOR SHOWERS CENTAL CWA...                
RUC SHOWS THAT SHTWV OVR SE MN/SW WI ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CNTL             
WI AND MOSITURE POOLING JUST IN FRONT OF COLD FRONT AND WEAKING                 
SHTWV OVER LK MI AT 00Z HELPING CONVECTION OVER LK MI AND SE WI TO              
DEVELOPE FARTHER.  WITH DPVA ASSOC WITH SHTWV AND WITH INSTABILITY              
SHOWN ON RUC AND MSAS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... LITTLE QUESTION SCT            
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CNTL AND NRN PARTS OF CWA TONIGHT. SO              
WILL FCST MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT SHWRS/TSTSM ALONG I-96 AREA EVEN               
THROUGH IT IS NOT THERE YET... WILL CROSS MOST OF THIS AREA BETWEEN             
11 PM AND 300 AM.  TAIL END OF CONVECTION MAY GET INTO SRN COUNTIES             
SO WILL BUT A CHANCE IN THOSE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.                            
TEMP FORECAST LOOKS OK.                                                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 040137  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1139 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORT WAVE AND WAA HAVE OVERSPREAD ALL           
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH KAPX 88D SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL                
SANDWICHED ROUGHLY BETWEEN M-68 AND M-55 AS FAR EAST AS I-75.  SOME             
SHOWERS ALSO SPREADING EAST TOWARD APN AND HARRISVILLE.  CLEARING               
RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER ATTM...AND GIVEN LATEST ETA/RUC          
ISENTROPIC PROGS (300-305K) WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE INTO         
EASTERN UPPER.  HOWEVER...WILL NOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT RAIN CHANCES THERE          
JUST YET.  WV IMAGERY INDICATES NEXT WAVE SPINNING ACROSS NORTHEAST             
MN...SHOULD CROSS UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME. DESTABILIZATION      
DUE TO SURFACE HEATING MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KICK OF SOME           
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES               
ACROSS...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD               
FRONT/TROF SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL UPPER ATTM.  FOR NORTHERN LOWER...           
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SCATTERED POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN THREE                  
COUNTIES...WITH CONINTUED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE REST OF              
NORTHERN LOWER SAVE FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES (MANISTEE-         
WEXFORD-ARENAC-GLADWIN)...WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THESE AREAS AS            
MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH.  WILL BRING          
DOWN FORECAST HIGHS A TOUCH OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...OTHERWISE REMAINDER          
OF THE AREA LOOKS GOOD.  UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1545Z.                
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 031525  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                        
GOING TO MAKE SOME CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  9Z RUC AND NEW NGM              
SHOW MAIN AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ASSOCIATED WITH  85%             
RH FIELD AT 850 MB.  THIS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ACROSS THE                
THUMB AREA.  SOME LIFT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THAT AREA FROM                     
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER.               
DTX SOUNDING QUITE DRY...DONT THINK WE WILL SEE TOO MUCH AFTERNOON              
CU DEVELOPMENT.  WILL CHANGE WORDING TO MOSTLY SUNNY.  SOME OF THE              
CLOUDS TO THE NORTH MAY MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN IN THE AREA TOWARD                  
EVENING.  WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT WERE MORE SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THEN           
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.                                                            
DRC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 031512  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN IS CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.                         
KMQT WSR-88D SHOWS BACK EDGE OF AREA OF SHOWERS THAT BRUSHED THE                
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE FA BY            
EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING UP OVER                  
KEWEENAW AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUDS                  
UPSTREAM INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC                         
TROF/DEVELOPING FRONT. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO                   
NORTHERN MN AT 14Z. GIVEN SLIGHT CLEARING TREND...WILL ADJUST                   
WORDING FOR CLOUD COVER. TEMPS LOOK GOOD SO FAR AND APPEAR IN LINE              
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE...SO WILL LEAVE THEM ALONE.                                  
RUC AND MESOETA PRECIP FORECASTS ARE ALREADY A BUST AS PRECIP HAS               
MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA. ETA CAPES ARE AROUND 500 J/KG AT 18Z AND                 
LI'S IN -2 TO -4 RANGE. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF THE            
UP AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 031141 AMD  mi                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
740 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
CLOUDS ALREADY WIDESPREAD ACROSS FA. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST                
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY/INCREASING CLOUDS WORDING. ALSO...SHRA/TSRA              
ARE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM. EARLY LOOK AT KAPX 88-D SHOWS SOEM DRY AIR             
BLO 700 MB BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY HOLD OFF PRECIP THROUGH                 
TODAY. 09Z RUC CONFIRMS THIS...FCSTS PRECIP TO FALL ACROSS MOST OF              
FA BY 21Z. WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MBL-TVC-ACB-HTL-GLR                   
GROUP...AND WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS             
THE REST OF N LOWER MI. PER SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...AM BECOMING                
CONCERNED THAT MOST PRECIP MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF EASTERN UP                       
TODAY...RENDERING CURRENT 50% POPS OVERDONE. HOWEVER...PRECIP EVENT             
IS STILL UNFOLDING SO WILL NOT YET CHANGE POPS ACROSS UP.                       
WILL LOWER TEMPS JUST A BIT INTO LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS S/E.                   
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 030822  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
330 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
RUC MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE LIFTED INDEX WILL BE FROM MINUS 2 TO                
MINUS 4 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EXPECT                  
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PASS THROUGH OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BY                 
MIDNIGHT BASED ON THE RUC FORECAST OF THE 850 MB THETA E RIDGE                  
POSITION. MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER 500 MB                     
TEMPERATURES ROTATING DOWN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST               
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. THINK THIS WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH                   
INSTABILITY FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE AT MORE                      
CONVECTION. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP MIX THE 20 KNOTS OF WIND THAT            
THE ETA MODEL FORECASTS BETWEEN 925 MB AND 850 MB TO THE SURFACE                
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PASS              
THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE            
PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITIES.                                      
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 WH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 031529  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1025 AM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN IN FCST FOR THIS            
AFTN DUE TO SFC BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA...AND SFC LI'S DROPPING TO -2 TO -5 ACCORDING TO RUC AND              
ETA. ALSO WILL KEEP THE SAME IN THE REST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS A            
SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER PER SAT IMAGERY...               
SWINGS THROUGH. APPEARS TO BE SOME TCU...AND CANADIAN RADAR SHOWING             
A FEW ECHOS HEADED TOWARD CWA. A FEW LI'S OF -1 TO -3 EXPECTED HERE             
EARLY THIS AFTN. CURRENT TEMP FCST STILL LOOKING GOOD.                          
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
TAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 031523  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1010 AM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY                
WARNING AREA. SHARP PROGRAM SUGGESTS THAT 80 TO 82 DEGREES WILL BE              
ENOUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THE CAP WITH CAPES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 900            
TO 1100. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG INTO               
SOUTHERN CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT MAX HEATING AND RUC MODEL SUGGESTS                
INCREASING 1000MB TO 850 MB CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. RUC ALSO           
SUGGESTS THE K INDEX WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG               
THE FRONT. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR                   
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE WOODLAKE PROFILER SHOWERS LOW AND MIDDLE              
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND MSAS INDICATES THAT THE ONLY SURFACE                    
PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.                  
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CORRELATED WITH 850MB THETA E RIDGE...AS                
DEPICTED ON THE RUC MODEL...BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE                 
DIFFUSE AFTER 18Z. INTEND TO MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT                 
FORECAST SCENARIO.                                                              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 WH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 030834  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
300 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
...CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES TONIGHT AND WED...              
UPPER PATTERN HAS A RIDGE OVER WESTERN NOAM WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE              
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE U.S....A LARGE VORTEX OVER EASTERN NOAM AND A TROF        
OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM             
EASTERN WY...ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THE FRONT IS          
WEDGED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN             
MT/ND.                                                                          
OVERALL MODEL PREFERENCE FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE AVN. USUAL NGM           
PROBLEMS SURFACE IN LATER PERIODS WHEN IT TRIES TO BRING WAA AND                
MONSOON MOISTURE TOO FAR NORTH TOO FAST. ETA SEEMS TO HAVE TOO MUCH             
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW ALONG REMNANTS OF SURFACE FRONT                 
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY AND PREMATURELY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW            
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
SURFACE FRONT IN SOUTH DAKOTA EXPECTED TO DROP INTO FAR NORTHERN                
NEBRASKA TONIGHT PUSHED ALONG BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT FURTHER EAST            
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WITH CLOUDS LINGERING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA             
TODAY ENVIRONMENT IS VERY STABLE. ONLY INSTABILITY AT PRESENT EXISTS IN         
SD BORDER COUNTIES FROM ANW WESTWARD WITH CAPES OF 800 TO 1500 J/KG.            
THUS WITH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG                  
FRONT WILL CONTINUE LOW POP MENTION FOR THUNDER IN NORTHERN AREAS THIS          
EVENING...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STABILIZE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. OTHER              
CONCERN HAS BEEN HARD TO ERODE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF             
CWFA. RUC INDICATES BLYR RH VALUES TO REMAIN AOB 70 PERCENT THROUGH             
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING BUT WITH EASTERLY WINDS              
EXPECTED BY MORNING WILL GO HALFWAY AND CALL IT PARTLY CLOUDY.                  
APPEARS REMNANTS OF FRONT WILL BE OVER THE CWFA DURING THE DAY                  
WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW             
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM            
MOST AREAS. FROPA WILL LIKELY STABILIZE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH OVER                 
NORTHEAST PART OF CWFA TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY BASED ON              
LAPSE RATE/CAPE FORECASTS. PREFER AVN SOLUTION WITH MORE SUN OVER THE           
AREA WEDNESDAY GIVEN NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW AT H7...SOUTHWEST IS ONLY             
LOCATION WHERE BROKEN CLOUD LAYER MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY.                  
OTHER THAN 20 POP WED EVE FOR THUNDER IN VICINITY OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL         
CONVERGENCE ALONG FADING FRONT...SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH LARGE             
SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE.                                    
AS H7 RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY...SOME MONSOON MAY            
BEGIN TO RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWFA. AVN ALSO APPEARS TO                
RESOLVE A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE MONSOON CRESTING THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY.           
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK LEE TROFING APPEARS            
SUFFICIENT WEST OF CWFA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD MOVE INTO CWFA            
LATE IN THE DAY. LAPSE RATE FORECAST FURTHER EAST SUGGESTS MUCH MORE            
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                                                 
IN THE EXTENDED...SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS ANOTHER MONSOONAL                
SHORTWAVE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN WAKE OF EXITING              
BOUNDARY FOR DRY CONDITIONS.                                                    
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
DJB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 031933 COR  ne                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
220 PM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC FOR -TSRA/CLDCOVER/TEMPS                           
...SYNOPSIS...WEAK SFC HI PRES STRETCHED ACRS NEB INTO IA...AND ALSO OVR        
MT/ND.  IN BETWEEN...A FNTL BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING A FEW TSRA...N OF             
PIR AND NR HON.  CLDS HAD FILLED IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH VERY LIGHT            
WNDS AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.                                                      
...FORECAST...UPR RIDGE FCST TO BLD ACRS THE ROCKIES WITH THE UPR               
TROF SHARPENING OVR THE GRTLKS AND OH VALLEY.  NW FLO WILL CONTINUE             
TO INCREASE AND THICKNESSES ARE FCST TO RMN THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY                
LOWER BY 48HRS.  ON THE AVN...THERE IS A TREND OF RAISING                       
THICKNESSES BEYOND 48 HRS AND THIS IS CONTINUED BY THE MRF THRU 12Z             
SUN.  A WET PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK...AND EVENTUALLY AN H70 CLOSED            
LO IS DVLPD OVR THE CNTRL PLNS LATE IN THE MRF PKG.                             
BOTH THE RUC AND THE NGM BRING THE FNT TO THE NE NEB/SD BORDER BY               
00Z.  THE ETA/AVN IS ABOUT 6HRS SLOWER IN THE NE.  STORMS AT 12Z                
WERE ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER AND THE RUC/NGM TIMING FOR THIS EVENING             
PREFERRED. BY 12Z THE FNT WILL BE PUSHING THRU THE SE WITH N AND NE             
FLO ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPS WED SHOULD BE SIM TO TODAY. AS               
SFC HI PRES BLDS IN THUR...STGR NE FLO AND COOLER TEMPS.                        
FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE A LOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE PD...WHILE             
PWS RMN RELATIVELY LO.                                                          
FOR ZONES TON AND WED WILL ONLY INCLUDE 20% OR ISO POPS AS UVV/WIND             
SHEAR  WEAK.  ETA H50 TEMPS DOES PICK UP ON A CD POOL.  SHOULD THIS             
VERIFY...THERE WILL BE MORE COVERAGE TO THE PRECIP WED THAN                     
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.                                                             
GUID TEMPS HAVE BEEN TOO WRM DURING THE DAY WITH THE CLDS AND NOT               
COOL ENOUGH AT NIGHT.  WILL GO WITH TEMPS AOB GUID THIS PKG.                    
CURRENT THINKING ON EFP WILL BE CHC OF PRECIP FRI LATE AFT EVE INTO             
SUN AND MON.  PLEASE REFER TO FINAL ZFP FOR EXTENDED.                           
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 031924  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
904 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF FPSN7 ACCORDING TO RADAR                
LOOP. COASTAL TROUGH LURKING JUST OFFSHORE. PRESSURE FALLING AT                 
FRYING PAN. COLD TOPS EXPANDING TOWARD COAST.                                   
RUC SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRESSURE OVERNIGHT WITH ELONGATED               
UPPER TROUGH ALIGNED JUST OFF SHORE. MODELS BRING MID CLOUDS                    
PROGRESSIVELY INLAND OVERNIGHT.                                                 
ALSO SOME WEAK OMEGA MAKING IT TO THE COAST BEFORE DAWN. WILL                   
INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MORNING FOR COASTAL ZONES.                       
WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS SOME ZONES. CLOUDS AND WINDS SHOULD KEEP                 
TEMPERATURES UP AND GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                      
CWF...WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT FOR NORTH              
PORTION OF COASTAL WATERS. WINDS STILL NNE AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KT.                
LIGHTER TO THE SOUTH BUT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CONVECTION                    
GROWS CLOSER...WINDS SHOULD PICK UP THERE AS WELL.                              
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FROM SURF CITY TO                       
LITTLE RIVER INLET.                                                             
DIGIORGI                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 032220 AMD  nc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
919 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
MSAS ANALYSIS THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK LOWS ALONG               
THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. 09Z RUC DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH               
THE DAY WHILE VERY SLOWLY MOVES THE WEAK LOWS NE ALONG THE FRONT.               
SOME H8 MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BACK INTO THE COAST DURING THE AFTN              
SO WOULD EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND. EARLY              
VIS SATL PICS INDICATES THIS TREND IS OCCURRING AND CURRENT FCST                
HAS THIS HANDLED WELL. 12Z SOUNDINGS AGREE WITH CURRENT FCST TEMPS              
IN THE UPPER 80S AND NO CHANGES PLANNED. WILL ADJUST WINDS ALONG                
THE COAST SLIGHTLY AS DIR IS MORE N THAN NE.                                    
CWF...WITH WEAK LOWS ALONG THE FNT THE WIND DIR CURRENTLY IS MORE N             
AND WILL MAKE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR THE NC WATERS. RUC STILL                  
INDICATES NE WINDS DURING THE AFTN FOR THE SC WATERS. WITH BOTH                 
FPSN7 AND 41004 REPORTING 5 FT SEAS WILL BRING SEAS UP SLIGHTLY FOR             
THE SC WATERS.                                                                  
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
IRELAND                                                                         
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WESTERN PA WITH                  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA.            
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DRYING IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AROUND THE         
PRESENT VALUES. WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE ON 21Z RUC OVER W VA DAMPENS OUT          
AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE TONIGHT. NO CLOUDS            
ARE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE AT PRESENT AND NONE ARE EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP. SOME PESKY LINGERING ALTOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...BUT         
WILL TOUCH BACK SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN LIGHT OF AC LAST NIGHT.            
ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO PARE BACK NC FOOTHILLS/NW            
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 60 WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND VERY          
LIGHT WINDS.                                                                    
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
HG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 040037  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
837 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
SOME MID/HI CLDS FM OFFSHORE DRIFTNG ALNG CSTL COUNTIES ATTM. DWPTS             
DROPPED BACK INTO THE UPR 50S FM CHS NWD (WOW!) ERLIER THS EVE...               
HWVR DWPTS AT NBC/CHS BACK ARND 70 NOW AS SEABRZ MOVD THRU BTWN 22Z             
AND 23Z. SURE IS A LOT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THS PAST WEEKEND...                
BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT REMAINS DRY WI NOT MUCH PCPN IN SIGHT.                     
TNT...XPCT DWPTS TO CONT TO RCVR AS DECPLNG OCCURS AND ATMOS                    
SEPARATES A BIT. ? BECOMES HOW LOW WL TEMPS GO TNT. THNK NRN INLAND             
COUNTIES HV BEST SHOT OF BEING COOLEST AS DRIEST DPWTS HV BEEN THERE            
ALL DAY. A LTL WARMER ALONG CST WHERE COMBNATION OF MARINE AIR...SOME           
MID CLDS AND LO LVL N/NE FLO ARND DVLPNG SFC LOW E OF GA TNT SHUD KP            
A BIT MORE SFC MSTR/HIER DWPTS BACK INTO AREA. SEEING AS SOME CLDS              
MAY CONT TO BE THROWN BACK FROM ATLANTIC TO COASTAL AREAS...WL CONT             
WI PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THESE AREAS.                                             
MESOETA/RUC AGREE WI PRVS THNKG OF SFC LO AND CSTL FNT STAYING                  
OFFSHORE FAR ENUF SO THAT ONLY SLGHT CHC POPS FOR FAR NRN PART OF               
CWA NEEDED...BUT NOT UNTIL TMRW. LUKS AS IF LOW/SFC WV WL TAKE UNTIL            
TMRW AFTN TO REACH ITS CLOSEST POINT TO THE CST...AND THEREFORE BST             
CHC OF PCPN AT THAT TIME.                                                       
WL NEED TO BREAK OUT BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER FOR COOLER OVRNGT LOWS.            
CWF...CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS           
DECREASING...WILL LEAVE ISOLATED TO COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE              
NIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATION SHOWS WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 10 KTS             
AT THE 40 MILE BUOY...THESE WILL PICK UP LATER AS WINDS BECOME NORTH            
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.                                                
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE                                                                       
GA...NONE.                                                                      
WOODWORTH/JCI                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 031849  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
157 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
LATEST RUC SHOWS NO PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. LONGER RANGE MDLS              
SHOW DRY ATMOS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWFA THRU 48 HRS. UPR TROF                
OVER NE AND RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US KEEP NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE                 
AREA. MDLS PUSH A SFC FNT TOWARD CWFA ON THU BUT DEEP MOISTURE AND              
DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH. MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS BUT               
JUST MOSTLY SUNNY AS OPPOSED TO SUNNY.                                          
THICKNESSES ON WED SIMILAR TO TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE AS WELL.                    
GUIDANCE AND THICKNESSES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THU SO FOLLOWED THAT TREND.            
GUIDANCE LOWS AT CLT TOO WARM GIVEN RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS AND LOWER            
THICKNESSES THERE. WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TREND AS THIS MORNING.                   
AVL 60/83/61/84 0000                                                            
CLT 64/87/65/89 0000                                                            
GSP 65/88/66/90 0000                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 031402  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1002 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC AND 03Z ETA SHOW DRY AIR MASS TO COTINUE TODAY WITH                  
MOISTURE HELPING TO PRODUCE MID DECK OVER OUR SWRN SECTIONS MOVING              
SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. 12Z THICKNESSES SUPPORT FCST HIS. CURRENT                
FCST LOOKS GOOD. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO BUMP UP WIND SPEEDS TO 10 TO            
15 MPH MOST LOCATIONS.                                                          
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 031342  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
930 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
BOTH THE 03Z ETA AND THIS MORNINGS RUC INDICATE A WEDGE OF 35-50 PCNT           
MEAN RH 1000-H5 NOSING INTO THE CWFA TDA. EXCEPTIONS ARE ON BOTH ENDS           
WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE RESIDES IN EXTREME S GEORIGA AND JUST OFF THE             
COAST NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER. VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWS THIN HIGH LEVEL            
MOISTURE MOVG ONSHORE IN S CAROLINA WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FCST ON UPDATE...WILL SHOOT FOR MOSTLY SUNNY              
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY SRN ZONES AND                 
IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE COULD BE ISOLD SHRA FAR SW-W GEORGIA ZONES               
LATER TDA BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE S OF THE ALTAMAHA. TEMPERATURES           
LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS.                                 
CWF...WK LO E OF MYR VCNTY AND PRES GRAD IS TIGHTENING. WINDS HAVE              
INCREASED ACROSS NRN HALF OF WATERS OVER PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS              
AND SEAS WILL BE BROUGHT UP IN THAT AREA...40 MILE BUOY RUNNING                 
AROUND 5 FT. WILL NOT RAISE SCA FLAG ATTIM...BUT INIT SEAS AT 5 FT              
AND KEEP AN EYE ON IT THROUGH THE DAY. BLV THIS WILL BE THE LIMIT               
FOR THE SC WATERS. GA WATERS LAGGING AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR WIND              
DIR ADJUSTMENTS THERE. ALSO...SAT IMGS AND RADAR ECHOES SHOWING                 
WIDELY SCATTERED PCPN JUST E AND N OF SC CSTL WATERS MOVG SLOWLY                
SW. WILL PUT IN SCT PCPN COVG IN THOSE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTN.                
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
RVT/MJR                                                                         
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1015 AM CDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN AT MID MORNING IS THE TSRA POTENTIAL FOR AFTN. DYNAMICALLY         
CHALLENGED COLD FRONT SLIPPING SLOWLY SWRD TWRD NRN CWA.  ONE UPPR              
IMPULSE MOVING THRU NRN MN...WITH SECONDARY AND APPARANTLY STRONGER             
WAVE IN SERN SASK.  LOW LVL WND FIELDS ARE FAR FROM IMPRESSIVE...BUT            
MID LVL FLOW IS QUITE BRISK WITH 50+ KTS AVAILABLE AT 500 HPA.                  
WHAT LITTLE LO LVL MSTR CONVERGENCE EXISTS...IS FAVORABLE...BUT WILL            
BE FIGHTING TENDENCY FOR MIXING THRU AFTN.  RUC DOES SEEM A BIT SHORT           
IN THE SFC DEWPOINT DEPARTMENT DROPPING VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO MID            
50S...WHICH RESULTS IN A BIT LOWER CAPE FCST OF AT MOST 500 J/KG.               
EVEN SO...MODIFICATION TO A MORE EVAPOTRANSPIRATICALLY FAVORED LOWER            
60S...WOULD ONLY BRING A MAX CAPE NR 1500 J/KG.  LTL CAPPING NR                 
FNT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH ACTION ALREADY FIRED UP THIS MORNING.         
THREAT OF SVR WOULD SEEM TO BE MINIMAL...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO            
SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS GET TESTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVNG            
WITH SOME GUSTY WIND AND HAIL.                                                  
UPDATES OUT SOON TO COVER STRENGTHENING OF TSRA WORDING FOR NERN                
HALF OF CWA...AS WELL AS TO BOOST TMPS AHEAD OF FNT...GREATEST OUT              
NR KPKS...K9V9...AND KYKN.  WL ALSO GIVE TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THRU              
ROUGHLY NWRN 1/2 OF CWA...AND SHIFT PREFRONTAL WINDS AROUND WITH A              
BIT MORE WLY COMPONENT...DUE TO MIXING.                                         
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 031439  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY AND STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS...WITH PERHAPS             
JUST ENUFF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (925-850 MBS) FOR A FEW AFTERNOON                 
CUMULUS CLOUDS.  09Z RUC MODEL DOES SHOW A WEAK 850 MB THERMAL                  
TROF PERSISTING THRU THE AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD               
FAVOR THE CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS...WHICH ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY                 
ABOVE THE 03/00Z MOS VALUES. JUST VIEWED SOME MON MAX TEMPS FROM COOP           
SITES...AND TEMPTED TO BUMP UP SMOKIES/SRN MTNS/SW NC ZONE GROUP                
TO MID 80S.                                                                     
OTHERWISE...SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE...JUST ENJOY THE EXCELLENT                  
WEATHER!                                                                        
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
TG                                                                              
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
415 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 3 1999                                                   
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. 500 MB HIGH IN PLACE WITH             
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE.  MODELS AGREE ON THE MID LEVEL                
OMEGA BLOCK BUT ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH SURFACE FEATURES AND OLD            
BOUNDARIES.  THIS IS UNDERSTANDABLE AS THE OUTFLOW FEST CONTINUES               
WITH NUMEROUS FOCI OUT THERE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION.  WEAK UPPER               
LEVEL SUPPORT AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD AID IN MAINLY A LATE                       
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM EVENT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMETHING             
GOING UP ALONG A BOUNDARY/WEAK CAP AND MOISTURE CONVERGENT AREA                 
EARLIER IN THE DAY.  PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION ON RIDGE BUILDING IN               
ALLOWING FOR LOW POPS FORECAST. AVN HINTING AT MORE SHORT WAVE                  
ENERGY OVER THE CWA BUT SURFACE RIDGING APPEARS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH              
THAN AVN INITIALIZATION...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT 8 Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.           
BELIEVE NGM AND ETA HAVE BEST HANDLE ON OMEGA FIELDS AND LOW TO MID             
LEVEL PATTERNS AND RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION           
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
EXTENDED IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARIES END UP AND SEE NO                 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RUN TO MAKE CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                        
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
FRIONA      84/64/85/66  4432                                                   
TULIA       85/64/86/66  4332                                                   
CHILDRESS   90/71/91/73  3322                                                   
BROWNFIELD  87/68/89/70  5443                                                   
LUBBOCK     90/69/91/71  4332                                                   
ASPERMONT   92/71/90/70  3322                                                   
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
SLW/16                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 030904  tx                                      

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
750 PM MDT TUE AUG 03 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AND              
STATEWIDE THURSDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO                     
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS WESTERN UTAH TOMORROW AND                 
STATEWIDE THURSDAY.                                                             
DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT SYSTEMS AND DATA PROBLEMS THIS EVENING.  KICX             
DATA STILL INOP.  ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHWEST HAS SETTLED DOWN PAST               
HOUR OR SO.  SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING IN WESTERN UTAH NOT AS STRONG AS            
LAST EVENINGS.  RUC PROGS THIS WAVE AT 300MB WITH VORT AXIS TO IDAHO            
BORDER BY 12Z...THUS WILL LEAVE WEATHER IN FOR TONIGHT.   ANOTHER               
300MB VORT CENTER SEEN BY RUC NEAR COMPLEX OVER GCN.  THIS PROGGED              
ACROSS LAKE POWELL LATER THIS EVENING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA            
CLOSELY.                                                                        
SLC 6332 CDC 3331 BURCH                                                         
.SLC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KSLC 032104  ut                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                      
VIS LOOP SHOWS PATCH OF 4-6KFT CIGS HAVE ALMOST DISSIPATED. SOME                
MOISTURE ARND 8H ON RNK SOUNDING THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC HAD SOME                 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER 8H DEW POINTS AND A LITTLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN              
THE MOUNTAINS SO SHUD SEE SOME SCT CU IN THE WRN PART OF CWA. RAOBS             
SUPPORT CURRENT FCST HIGHS. NO CHANGES TO ZONES.                                
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
AMS                                                                             
 va                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
300 AM PDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TO A               
POSITION OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...               
INCREASING THE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A                
COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL            
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AT THE COAST TODAY...            
WITH COOLING EXTENDING INLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                          
THE UPR LOW OFF THE PAC NW CST WL MOVE S TO A POSITION OFF THE NRN              
CA CST FOR THU AND FRI. DRY SWLY FLOW ALF WL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA             
WITH INCRG ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW FOR THU AND FRI. CSTL EDDY HAS ALREADY            
DEVELOPED AND SHOULD BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT THAN WK CSTL               
EDDIES OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY BOTH RUC AND               
COAMPS WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE COAMPS MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC CRCLN              
AT 925 MB OVR THE CSTL WTRS DURG THE DAY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WL               
EXTEND A LTL FARTHER INLAND THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING WITH            
CLRG A LTL SLOWER THAN TUE. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES AS            
THE EDDY CRCLN PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND MUCH FASTER            
THIS EVENING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN RESPONSE TO EDDY CRCLN AND INCRG             
ONSHR FLOW. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR FOR TONIGHT               
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO EXTEND INTO INLAND EMPIRE BY              
THU MORNING. COOLING WL BEGIN AT THE CST TODAY...THEN EXTEND INLAND             
TO MOST AREAS THU.                                                              
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KLOX 040939  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
133 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
UPPER JET CONT TO SINK S OVER E US. VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROFS CONT             
TO PASS THRU BUT LITTLE MORE THAN ENHANCED AC OVER FORECAST AREA AS             
MAIN ENERGY REMAINS WELL N AND ALSO OFF SE COAST IN DEFORMATION                 
ZONE. EXPECT TODAYS WX TO BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. RUC SHOWS WEAK H5             
TROF HELPING FORM CLOUDS OVER CWA AND WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER               
EARLY THIS MORNING...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE SUPRESSED SOME                 
AREAS. STARTING THE DAY WITH WARMER MORNING LOWS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME            
LOCATIONS TO REACH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS AGAIN TODAY.                       
ETA AND AVN SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THRU WEEK WITH BEST SHOT              
AT MEASURABLE RAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT OVER MTNS INTO NC PIEDMONT AS              
AVN BRINGS IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROFS...INCREASED MOISTURE AND             
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS.                                                            
AVL 86/62/86/61 000                                                             
CLT 87/70/89/68 000                                                             
GSP 90/68/91/66 000                                                             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 040113 COR  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
855 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 1999                                                       
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH CENTER MOVING INTO WESTERN PA WITH                  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA.            
LITTLE ADDITIONAL DRYING IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS AROUND THE         
PRESENT VALUES. WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE ON 21Z RUC OVER W VA DAMPENS OUT          
AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE ZONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE TONIGHT. NO CLOUDS            
ARE ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE AT PRESENT AND NONE ARE EXPECTED TO                 
DEVELOP. SOME PESKY LINGERING ALTOCU SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...BUT         
WILL TOUCH BACK SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN LIGHT OF AC LAST NIGHT.            
ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO PARE BACK NC FOOTHILLS/NW            
PIEDMONT TO AROUND 60 WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND VERY          
LIGHT WINDS.                                                                    
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
HG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 040037  sc                                      

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
230 AM PDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MUCH OF EAST                   
WASHINGTON AS POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER SE CORNER OF WASHINGTON                
LIFTS NNE. THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES           
OF THE CASCADES WITH SIGNIFICANT E-SE WRAPAROUND FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE             
RESULTING IN STRONG OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTIONS. RUC AND ETA MODELS SEEM           
TO HAVE THE MOST ACCURATE TRACK WITH THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT                 
TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRONG SUBSIDENCE                
BEHIND FEATURE...ACTUALLY EXPECT TO SEE PLENTY OF INSOLATION                    
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ONCE AGAIN...TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO             
THE 90S OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN ZONES...WHILE THE NORTHERN ZONES WILL           
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER UNDER THE CLOUDS. ANY HEATING WHICH DOES TAKE           
PLACE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ANOTHER BATCH            
OF CONVECTION...GIVEN STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER UNLIKE THE           
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE ARE NO APPARENT SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN              
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN OFFSHORE TROF AND DESERT SW HIGH. MODELS             
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...HOWEVER ANY BATCH OF CONVECTION FORMING            
LATER TODAY TO OUR SOUTH COULD INDUCE SOME SORT OF FOCUSING MECHANISM           
AS IT ADVECTS NORTH INTO OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL BUY INTO THE ETA              
SOLUTION SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED                    
SHORTWAVE TROF WILL BE UNORGANIZED AND DIURNAL. MODELS ALSO                     
SUGGESTING A LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER                    
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH ETA CAPES EXCEEDING 700 J/KG OVER            
MUCH OF THE AREA. BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE OVER THE NORTHERN                   
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL              
MINIMIZE OROGRAPHIC CONTRIBUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER AREA-WIDE             
WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FROM 700MBS ON               
DOWN.                                                                           
.EXTENDED...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY             
WITH HIGH INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE AS OFFSHORE LOW               
HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTH OREGON COAST. THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY                  
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW RETROGRADES WEST OF 130W...RESULTING IN            
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE OVER CWA AND RESULTANT WARMING. STILL                    
INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT SO CANT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.           
TO OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST.                                                 
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 091/063/094 322                                                             
CQV 092/060/095 533                                                             
S86 088/057/090 533                                                             
COE 092/062/094 322                                                             
WWP 090/058/090 433                                                             
LWS 095/066/097 222                                                             
MOS 092/059/093                                                                 
EAT 094/066/095 522                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSEW 040921  wa                                      

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
926 AM MST WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN BETWEEN DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE            
EAST AND A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE WEST HAS SHIFTED WEST TOWARD               
TUCSON THIS MORNING. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN             
UNDER THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SOME             
WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS TO THE WEST SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALTHOUGH A                 
MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED             
DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE BACK AND FORTH               
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...SEPARATING THE RISK OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST.                       
DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS LIKE THE AVN FROM YESTERDAY HAS WON WITH THE              
RIDGE AXIS MAKING IT INTO E NM THIS MORNING. MONSOON BOUNDARY HAS               
SHIFTED WEST ABOUT 50 MILES THANKS TO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER               
SONORA LAST NIGHT. THAT SAME COMPLEX HAS THROWN OFF AN OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARY INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH KYUM'S DEWPOINT JUMPING               
INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH THE BOUNDARY. PRECIP WATERS ARE CLIMBING                
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE 1.5"+ STUFF NOW AT THE MEXICAN BORDER. 12Z              
AND 15Z RUC SHOW A 60KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSING INTO THE                 
UT/CO BORDER AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE              
EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. RUC ALSO SHOWS THE PESKY INVERTED TROUGH              
AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E RIDGE ALSO SHIFTING WEST INTO THE CWA. THE               
QUESTION FOR ME WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING THE EAST WILL SEE, AND IF             
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL REINFORCE THE INVERTED TROUGH.             
CELLS MOVING WEST ALONG THE NM BORDER, AND MOVING SOUTH OVER SANTA              
CRUZ COUNTY ARE TELLING ME THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS RELOCATING              
ITSELF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KTUS AND KDUG IN THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING              
AREA. WE'LL HAVE TO PLAY WAIT-N-SEE FOR NOW, BUT I FEEL CONFIDENT               
ENOUGH TO UP POPS ABOUT 10% OVER THE W CWA. EVEN IN THE WESTERN                 
DESERTS WHERE THE AIR IS DRIEST, THE INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS            
WHIPPING UP SOME ALTOCU CASTELLANUS AND MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED               
STORM OR TWO LATER ON. AS FOR THE EAST, HEAVY RAIN WORDING IS                   
ALREADY IN AND LOOKS GOOD. IF THE MID DECK THAT'S OUT THERE NOW                 
BREAKS UP, WE MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EVENING. PLENTY              
OF TIME BEFORE WE NEED TO MAKE A MOVE ON THAT, HOWEVER. AS FOR LATER            
PERIODS, VORT MAX IS APPARENT BETWEEN KSFO AND KLAX, LIFTING NNE                
TOWARD NV. THAT MAY BE LIFTING OUT TOO FAR NORTH FOR IT TO PUSH THE             
MONSOON BOUNDARY BACK EAST. NEW NGM IS INSISTING THAT IT WILL, WHILE            
NEW ETA IS INSISTING THAT IT WON'T. THAT'LL BE AN AFTERNOON PACKAGE             
PROBLEM. PYTLAK                                                                 
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 041619  az                                      

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
300 AM PDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
AN UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH TO A               
POSITION OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...               
INCREASING THE ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A                
COASTAL EDDY WILL BRING MORE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL            
AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AT THE COAST TODAY...            
WITH COOLING EXTENDING INLAND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                          
THE UPR LOW OFF THE PAC NW CST WL MOVE S TO A POSITION OFF THE NRN              
CA CST FOR THU AND FRI. DRY SWLY FLOW ALF WL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA             
WITH INCRG ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW FOR THU AND FRI. CSTL EDDY HAS ALREADY            
DEVELOPED AND SHOULD BE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT THAN WK CSTL               
EDDIES OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS IS SHOWN WELL BY BOTH RUC AND               
COAMPS WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE COAMPS MAINTAINING A CYCLONIC CRCLN              
AT 925 MB OVR THE CSTL WTRS DURG THE DAY TODAY. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WL               
EXTEND A LTL FARTHER INLAND THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING WITH            
CLRG A LTL SLOWER THAN TUE. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AT SOME BEACHES AS            
THE EDDY CRCLN PERSISTS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND MUCH FASTER            
THIS EVENING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS IN RESPONSE TO EDDY CRCLN AND INCRG             
ONSHR FLOW. EXPECT ENOUGH DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR FOR TONIGHT               
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO EXTEND INTO INLAND EMPIRE BY              
THU MORNING. COOLING WL BEGIN AT THE CST TODAY...THEN EXTEND INLAND             
TO MOST AREAS THU.                                                              
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KLOX 040939  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
305 AM CDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
AT 06Z SFC TROUGH/BOUNDARY WAS CONTINUING TO PUSH ACRS NORTHERN IA              
AND SOUTHERN WI. CURRENT 88D LOOPS INDICATING SCTRD WEAK CONVECTION WAS         
PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG H7-H3 MB THICKNESS PATTERNS ACRS FAR NORTHEAST          
IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. DISTANCE SPEED TIMING BRINGS ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL         
PORTIONS OF CWA AROUND 945Z TO 10Z. CURRENT MSAS/LAPS DATA INDICATES            
SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ADJACENT TO FEATURE          
SUPPORTING NARROW BROKEN LINE OF PRECIP...AND 00Z H25 ANALYSIS INDICATES        
90+ KT TRAILING JET MAX CLIPPING NORTHERN IA PROVIDING SOME UPPER               
SUPPORT. WILL WATCH PRECIP TRENDS AND SEE HOW IT HOLDS TOGETHER...MAY           
HAVE TO REINTRODUCE SOME MORNING POPS FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA.                 
AFTER PRECIP CHANCES THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS THIS FCST PKG          
ONCE AGAIN DEAL WITH SKY COVER WORDING AND TEMPS.                               
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW SKY WORDING MAY BE TRICKY FOR             
PORTIONS OF KDVN CWA WITH SOME HIGHER RH/S AND CLOUDINESS AGAIN                 
ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS SHOWING                    
MOISTURE/CLOUDS FEEDING IN FROM CENTRAL PLAINS MONSOONAL FEED ACRS              
WESTERN IA. THIS PROCESS FLOWING ALONG RUC H7-H3 MB THICKNESS PATTERNS          
NICELY...WITH WEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTATION MAKING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA            
ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CLOUDINESS. THIS COMBINED WITH TROUGH/BOUNDARY              
SLIPPING ACRS AREA THIS MORNING WILL WARRANT AT BEST A PARTLY CLOUDY            
WORDING THIS MORNING. AS THIS ACTIVITY GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS             
THE DAY PROGRESSES...CU DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER QUESTION. SFC DPTS SLOW TO          
DROP OFF BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW MAY              
WARRANT SOME BKN CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DVN CWA MAY BE ON               
FRINGE OF BEST CU FIELD HOWEVER AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BETTER UPPER           
SUPPORT...AND HIGHER LMRH/S CONTINUE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI.             
MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE MAIN DEEP DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN           
AFTER 00Z THU...THUS ONGOING CLEAR TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY THURSDAY            
STILL LOOKS GOOD. OF COURSE...SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING                 
SOLUTIONS OF FOLLOWING VORT PIECES IN STEEP UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS           
AREA THUR AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL ALL THEY WOULD DO AT BEST IS KICK UP SOME        
CU. STILL WILL LEAVE ONGOING SUNNY/MS AND WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS AND         
THEIR HANDLING OF TRAILING WEAK VORTS.                                          
FWC DID DECENT YESTERDAY ON MAX TEMPS...AND WITH COOLER AIR LAGGING SFC         
TROUGH WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC AGAIN TODAY...AND TAKE FAN/FWC               
COMPROMISE FOR THUR. FAN/FWC AGREE ON MINS AND WON/T STRAY FAR FROM             
THEIR VALUES.                                                                   
WILL LEAVE EXTENDED ALONE THIS FCST PKG.                                        
COORDINATED WITH ILX...THANX.                                                   
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
JDH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 040806  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1055 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                      
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM            
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. HELPING PRECIPITATION DEVELOP TO             
OUR WEST. SHORTWAVE AND FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS                 
AFTERNOON. DIFF VORT ADVECTION WILL MAKE UP FOR ANY COLD ADVECTION              
GOING ON TO PRODUCE SOME QG FORCING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER             
MAXIMIZED AROUND 18Z. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLDER TEMPERATURES                
ALOFT AND MORE MOIST SOUNDING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE CAPES COULD            
REACH OVER 1000 J/KG. RUC ALSO INDICATES THAT 300MB JET STREAK                  
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER             
THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT AROUND 8-9KFT AND                 
500MB TEMPS AT -15 TO -18C WILL MAKE SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY WITH              
ANY THUNDERSTORM...COULD BE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AS WELL.               
EXPECT WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN UPPER AFTER 18Z. LACK             
OF STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD KEEP ANY             
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WIDELY SCATTERED VARIETY.                          
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DOING WELL AND KEEPING UP WITH FWC 3 HOUR                  
FORECASTS. NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 925 AND 850MB AROUND 15KTS SOME              
SHOULD MIX DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIND FORECAST ALSO LOOKS GOOD.              
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
FARINA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 041430  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
944 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
COASTAL TROF DRIFTED WEST OVERNIGHT AND IS JUST OFF THE SE NC                   
COAST. MSAS ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A WEAK LOW ALONG THE TROF BETWEEN               
CLKN7 AND FPSN7. RW/TRW ACTIVITY ASSOCIATES WITH THESE FEATURES IS              
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING             
ESE ATTM. 09Z RUC WAS INDICATING LITTLE MOVEMENT TO ANY OF THE                  
FEATURES DURING THE AFTN SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DRASTIC CHANGES                
FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS.                                                        
WILL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING. SATL               
IS SHOWING THE CLOUD COVER TO MAINLY BE EAST OF A FAY TO MYR LINE               
SO WILL GO M/SUNNY WEST OF THIS AREA. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF RAIN             
WHERE IS CURRENTLY IS INCLUDED...EXCEPT FOR GEORGETOWN COUNTY...BUT             
WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY. ONLY PLANNED TEMP CHANGE IS FOR COASTAL               
SE NC TO LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE WITH THE CLOUD COVER.                             
CWF...AREA OF LOW PRES IS PLAYING HAVOC WITH WIND DIR AT BUOYS                  
WHILE COASTAL OBS INDICATE A N FLOW IS DOMINATING NEAR SHORE. WILL              
NOT TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR VARIABLE DIR OUT AT 20 NM AROUND THE LOW.                
WITH THE RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH MOVEMENT TO THE LOW WILL KEEP DIR N               
TO NE THROUGH THE AFTN AND WILL ALSO BACK OFF ON WIND SPEED SOME                
FOR THE NC WATERS.                                                              
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
IRELAND                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 040711  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1008 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                      
12Z CHARTS SHOW SFC RIDGING AND DRY ATMOS REMAIN ACROSS CWFA. LATEST            
RUC AND 03Z ETA CONTINUE THE TREND THRU THE DAY. SAT PIX SHOW CLOUDS            
ALREADY ACROSS WRN SECTIONS AND WILL BE SOME CU MOST LOCATIONS THIS             
AFT. SHOULD STILL SEE LOTS OF SUN. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 041402  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1002 AM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                      
DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY S AND E ACROSS THE                
AREA THIS AFTN. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER THIS            
AM AND SUSPECT IT WILL STAY MAINLY IN THAT AREA. RUC AND MESOETA KEEP           
PRECIP OFF THE COAST AND AM INCLINED TO AGREE GIVEN UNFAVORABLE                 
SOUNDING. EXPECT SEA BREEZE TO MAKE ITS WAY BARELY INLAND LATE THIS             
AFTN AS IT DID YDAY BUT THIS SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE HELP. PLAN TO                
REMOVE MENTION OF POP IN BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES AND                   
POTENTIALLY ALSO CHS COUNTY. MAY ADD A 20 POP IN FOR EXTREME SRN                
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GA TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP CURRENTLY JUST OFF                 
THE COAST AND ANY POTENTIAL MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH SHOULD              
BE SMALL...BUT THIS IS ALSO DOUBTFUL GIVEN INFLUX OF DRY AIR EXPECTED           
AND CURRENTLY HAPPENING.                                                        
OTHERWISE...FEW IF ANY CHANGES EXPECTED FOR MORNING UPDATE EXCEPT               
POTENTIALLY LESS PESSIMISTIC CLOUD COVER MAINLY INLAND.                         
CWF...NLY PG OUT THERE THIS AM AS TROF REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE                
OFFSHORE WATERS. WL CONT 10-15 KT SPEEDS THRU THE AFT. FCST SEAS                
LOOK FINE AND WL LET RIDE. WL CUT BACK PCPN TO WIDELY SCATTERED FOR             
SC WATERS AS ACTIVITY IS WELL OFFSHORE.                                         
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SLF/TJR                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 041322  sc                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
910 AM PDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OUT OF CALIFORNIA            
WILL CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND ALSO IN             
SOUTHERN NEVADA NEAR THE ARIZONA AND UTAH BORDERS. OTHERWISE A DRY              
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT             
BASIN WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF              
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                      
DISCUSSION...VORT LOBE/MAX OVER SOUTHEAST CA DEPICTED BEST BY 12Z RUC           
AND APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE CENTERED           
AROUND 600 MB ENOUGH FUEL FOR THIS FEATURE TO CAUSE CLOUDS AND A FEW            
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG CO RIVER THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY NOT COVERED            
IN ZONES AND WILL UPDATE RIVER/LAKES ZONES AND NE CLARK COUNTY ZONE             
AND SHEEP/SPRING MOUNTAIN ZONES. ACTIVITY MAY WELL STAY EAST OF                 
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND JUST CLIP SHEEP RANGE THOUGH. WILL UPDATE LAS              
VEGAS VALLEY FOR CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE           
OVER CWFA WITH BEST MOISTURE FAR NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS. FORECAST              
ALREADY MENTIONS THUNDERSTORMS THOSE AREAS SO NO OTHER UPDATES                  
PLANNED.  JMH                                                                   
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KLKN 041552  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
222 PM EDT WED AUG 4 1999                                                       
LATEST RUC SHOWS NO SHORT TERM FCST PROBLEMS. LONGER RANGE MDLS MOVE            
DRY SFC FNT ACROSS AREA ON THU. A LITTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT               
HIGHEST MOISTURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. ALL DYNAMICS PASS TO THE NORTH            
AS WELL. ETA SHOWS SOME UVV AT H7 AT 36 HRS BUT DVV AT H5.  HOWEVER             
IT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP. NGM HAS SOME PRECIP BUT NO UVV.                
ALSO BOTH MLDS HAVE DIV Q-VECTORS AND LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE CONV.              
ALL THIS LEADS TO SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP THU AND DRY AGAIN FRI AS            
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.                                                          
LIKE WARMER FWC HIGHS...CLOSER TO WHAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING. FAN/FWC              
LOWS ARE CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED XCPT AT CLT WHERE TOO HIGH.               
THEY HAVE BEEN TOO LOW AT GSP BECAUSE OF SOME MID CLOUDS DEVELOPING             
THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...BUT WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE.                                
WILL INTRODUCE POPS IN EXTENDED FOR SUN/MON AND CONTINUE TEMP TREND.            
AVL 61/85/60/86 0000                                                            
CLT 66/90/66/92 0000                                                            
GSP 67/91/67/92 0000                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 041408  sc