WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1245 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002
SURFACE DEW PTS OF 50+ DEGREES AND PW INCREASING FROM NMEX WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER SAN JUAN MTNS..UNCOMPAHGRE AND AREAS SOUTH
OF DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS. ONE SPOTTER S OF DRO REPORTED 3/4 OF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN 15 MIN. ANALYSIS AND RUC SHOW PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING BETWEEN NE NMEX AND SE UT HELPING PRODUCT SE WINDS OF 10-
20 MPH ASSISTING IN THE MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE 4-CRNRS. MODELS
DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS MOISTURE SURGE WITH ACTUAL SFC DEW PT
VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN THE ETA AND WETTER AVN PROGGED DATA. TWO VORT
MAXES ADDING TO THE CONVECTIVE MIX. ONE OVER NE AZ SPREADING CI
CLOUDS SHIELD OVR SE UT AND SW CO. SECOND VORT OVER NE NMEX SLIDING
TO WSW AROUND BOTTOM OF CO HIGH AND ASSISTING CONVECTION OVER CNTRL
AND WRN NMEX ALONG WITH LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED
FCST FOR THIS AFTN'S TSTMS AND BLV ENUF THINGS HEADING TOWARD AND
ALREADY OVER SW CO TO INCREASE POPS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THEM
LATER THIS EVENING.
TUE...HIGHER MODEL PW AND SFC DEW PTS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ALONG
CO/UT BORDER WITH AVN AVERAGED 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN ETA. MODEL
TIME/HTS SHOW PEAK MOISTURE AT 12Z TUE WITH DRYING THRUOUT THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT 4-CRNRS DRIES OUT MOST SLOWLY WITH LOW LVL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING.  WILL CARRY HIR POPS OVER SRN
CO/SERN UT TUE...LOWER OVER REST OF CWA...THO WILL EDGE THEM UP
FROM CURRENT FCST. HIGH WOBBLES OVER THE AREA THRU WED AND THO BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST ENUF
FOR LOW GRADE AFTN/EVNG TSTMS IN THE MTNS. HIGH CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA THUR WITH LITTLE CHG IN THE AIRMASS...BUT AVN SHOWS TWO VORT
MAXES /WITH PROBABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/ RIDING OVER NE UT AND NW
CO THU AFTN.  CJC
EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...LATEST MRF NOW SHOWING A FLATTER WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WL SUPPRESS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH...LEAVING THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED MTN
CONVECTION...WHICH WE CAN COVER WITH LOW POPS FOR NOW.  RDG STARTS TO
REGAIN STRENGTH OVER THE ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW WEEK...
WITH THE RDG AXIS SETTING UP NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO STATE LINE.
CONTINUED WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. JDC
.GJT...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   co
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
00Z KTLH SOUNDING STILL VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PW AT 1.99 IN
...CAPE 1333 J/KG AND LI -2.3. NOT AS ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS PREVIOUS FEW DAYS DESPITE THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED
OVERHEAD. CURRENTLY A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STRETCHES FROM
HENRY COUNTY ALABAMA TO MITCHELL COUNTY GEORGIA AND IS DIMINISHING
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOW BEGINNING TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST OVER FRANKLIN
AND WAKULLA COUNTIES. 23Z RUC SHOWS A VORT MAX IN THIS AREA AND WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE MORE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT POPS ALL ZONES. PLAN ON
KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR THE FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.
MARINE: WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH WITH SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.
BARRY
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
930 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
TCU AND SOME SCT TS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG SFC INSTABILITY
GRADIENT FROM NW TN INTO SRN IN, IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOWLY INCR
310K UPGLIDE AND AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS (PER THE 9Z RUC
FCST). RECENT LMK-MM5 DATA SHOWING MEAN STORM MOTION FROM 230 AT
8KTS AND UPGLIDE/MOISTURE AXIS MOVES SLOWLY EWD, THEREFORE THIS SCT
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA.
THEREFORE HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFPLMK TO HAVE 30% POPS ALL ZONES
TODAY, WITH ONLY AFTERNOON TS IN ERN ZONES. OF ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS
THAT 6Z META SHOWING SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS, SUCH
THAT BEST PRECIP MAY STAY N OF CWA THRU 12Z/TUE. MORE ON THIS
LATER...
SDF...NONE.
SMALLCOMB
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
945 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
...UPDATE...
CHGD SKIES FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. SAT SHWG CI WHILE MID
AND LWR CLDS DSNT FROM CWA. NUDGE MINS DOWN A TAD C/COD AND ISS.
REST OF EARLIER PKG WELL STATED.
...PREVIOUS DISC AND REASONING...
...90-95 NOON-3PM TUE ALL SNE WITH SFC TD AT 21Z NR 75 IN CT THEN
WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 21Z TUE THRU 16Z WED....
SVR: EXPECT SVRL SVR STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...
     THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL.
     LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO
     THE LOW OR MID 70S...USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE
     HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL
     TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB.
     EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER
     TRANSFER. HIGH CAPE MAY PRODUCE MORE EXTENSIVE SVR WX EPISODE
     THAN EXPECTED. WE/VE NOTED ASOS 40 KT EVENTS DTW-BKL TDY WITH
     WIND DAMAGE IN W NYS... ALL THIS WITH WIND FIELDS LESS FAVORABLE
     THAN MODLED FOR SNE TOMORROW. SO... POTENTIAL FOR SVR TOMORROW
     BUT NOT YET CONVINCED HOW WDPSRD. SEE SWODY2 AND PROBS FOR
     50 KTS.
SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR
         MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME
         FRAME TUE AFTN.
QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+
     IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12
     HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5".
     GARDENS IN SE NEW ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING...
     MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE
     PALTRY AS COMPARED TO PRIMARY TARGET REGION FROM IJD-PVD-PYM.
GFE: USED ETA FCST SFC TDS BASED ON MID - UPPER 70S SEEN UPSTREAM
     TDY FROM OH VLY TO SRN PA.  BLV THIS WILL VERIFY BETTERN THAN
     LOWER GFS SFC TDS.
TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE
         FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME CNTRL NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK
         INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE.  LOW PROB EEN-ORE
         NWWD.  LOW STRATUS FORMS RAPIDLY ALONG AND SE OF AN IJD
         ORH-BOS LINE IN THE 03Z VCNTY.
TUE: LIKE THE NGM TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM TODAY AND 18C 8H TO START
     THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH  HT INDX 100-102
     I95 NWWD IN THE VALLEY/SEA LVL LOCATIONS 16-21Z. THEN BKN BND OF
     OF HVY STORMS LIKELY. ENHANCED WORDING POSTED FOR LATE TUE.
     GUIDANCE POPS RAISED IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
TUE NIGHT:  CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS
            CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT.
WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES.  CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED
     LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY
     CHILLY.  NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT
     WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT GST FROM BL WIND.
THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING
     500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT
     BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD.
FRI: 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN
     APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV
     THIS SOLN ATTM.
SAT-MON: NCEP GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF  90
         POSSIBLE EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY
         UNCERTAIN.
MARINE: ETA/GFS WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS
        TUE AFTN.
NWR: FIXED CAMP EDWARDS.
CHAFF: 88D CONTS JUST S OF SNE AT 2020Z.
SFZ: APPEARS TO B RUNNING 4F TOO COLD.
.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MAY B NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE.
$$
DRAG
</PRE></TT></td>   ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL DAY PKG..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
512 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
...90-95 NOON-3PM TUE ALL SNE WITH SFC TD AT 21Z NR 75 IN CT THEN
WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 21Z TUE THRU 16Z WED....
SVR: EXPECT SVRL SVR STORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...
     THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL.
     LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO
     THE LOW OR MID 70S...USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE
     HAIL. WBZ SHUD B NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL
     TT FROM THE GFS REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB.
     EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER
     TRANSFER. HIGH CAPE MAY PRODUCE MORE EXTENSIVE SVR WX EPISODE
     THAN EXPECTED. WE/VE NOTED ASOS 40 KT EVENTS DTW-BKL TDY WITH
     WIND DAMAGE IN W NYS... ALL THIS WITH WIND FIELDS LESS FAVORABLE
     THAN MODLED FOR SNE TOMORROW. SO... POTENTIAL FOR SVR TOMORROW
     BUT NOT YET CONVINCED HOW WDPSRD. SEE SWODY2 AND PROBS FOR
     50 KTS.
SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR
         MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME
         FRAME TUE AFTN.
QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+
     IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12
     HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5".
     GARDENS IN SE NEW ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING...
     MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE
     PALTRY AS COMPARED TO PRIMARY TARGET REGION FROM IJD-PVD-PYM.
GFE: USED ETA FCST SFC TDS BASED ON MID - UPPER 70S SEEN UPSTREAM
     TDY FROM OH VLY TO SRN PA.  BLV THIS WILL VERIFY BETTERN THAN
     LOWER GFS SFC TDS.
TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE
         FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME CNTRL NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK
         INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE.  LOW PROB EEN-ORE
         NWWD.  LOW STRATUS FORMS RAPIDLY ALONG AND SE OF AN IJD
         ORH-BOS LINE IN THE 03Z VCNTY.
TUE: LIKE THE NGM TEMPS BASED ON UPSTREAM TODAY AND 18C 8H TO START
     THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH  HT INDX 100-102
     I95 NWWD IN THE VALLEY/SEA LVL LOCATIONS 16-21Z. THEN BKN BND OF
     OF HVY STORMS LIKELY. ENHANCED WORDING POSTED FOR LATE TUE.
     GUIDANCE POPS RAISED IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
TUE NIGHT:  CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS
            CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT.
WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES.  CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED
     LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY
     CHILLY.  NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT
     WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT GST FROM BL WIND.
THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING
     500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT
     BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD.
FRI: 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN
     APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV
     THIS SOLN ATTM.
SAT-MON: NCEP GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF  90
         POSSIBLE EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY
         UNCERTAIN.
MARINE: ETA/GFS WIND FIELDS LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS
        TUE AFTN.
NWR: FIXED CAMP EDWARDS.
CHAFF: 88D CONTS JUST S OF SNE AT 2020Z.
SFZ: APPEARS TO B RUNNING 4F TOO COLD.
.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MAY B NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE.
$$
DRAG
</PRE></TT></td>   ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..MID AFTN PRELIM DISC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1222 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
...90 TO 93F VALLEY NON MARINE INFLUENCED COASTAL PLAIN HEAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND 430PM PKG WILL REPEAT THIS TUE AFTN PVD-BOS THEN
WDSPRD 0.5 TO 1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 20Z TUE THRU 18Z WED....
NWR: WE'VE HAD NUMEROUS CALLS REGARDING CAMP EDWARDS. OUR
     ELECTRONICS PERSONNEL ARE WORKING ON IT ATTM AS ITS BEEN
     PROBLEMATCI FOR ABT 48 HRS. HOPE TO HAVE IT RTS LATE TDY.
CHAFF: 88D JUST FORCED INTO PCON MODE...PROB BY CHAFF BEARING DOWN
       DONW AT ACK AT 1612Z.
FINAL AFD ARD 445 PM AFTER FINAL CK OF ALL GUIDANCE INCLUDING 18Z
ETA AND RUC FOR THE FCST THRU 00Z WED.
MODELS: 12Z NCEP MODELS REVIEWED THRU 48 HRS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT
        THE ETA R1 SOLN TUE NIGHT AND WED AS ITS LOW LVL RH APPEARS
        FAR TOO DRY FOR THE PERSISTENT NELY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN AND
        THE HIGH PW AIR THAT THE COOL BL AIR UNDERRUNS.
SVR: LOW PROB SVR TUESDAY SUSPECT 1 OR 2 STORMS ON THE LEADING
     EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW
     WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. GETTING LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO
     B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S
     ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B
     NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS
     REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE
     RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER. FOLLOW
     LATE DISCS INCLUDING SWODY2 RELEASE AT 1730Z AND LATER.
SKYWARN: AS A PRECAUTION...WE ANTICPATE THE NEED FOR DIGGING FOR
         MARGINAL REPORTS BEGINNING SOMEWHERE IN THE 2-4P TIME
         FRAME TUE AFTN.
QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+
     IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12
     HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". MORE
     ON THIS IN THE RVDBOS AND LATE DAY AFD.  GARDENS IN SE NEW
     ENGLAND MAY FINALLY GET A DECENT DOUSING...MAYBE TOO MUCH TOO
     FAST TUE EVENING THO CC RAINS MAY STILL BE PALTRY AS COMPARED
     TO REGIONS FROM IJD-PVD-PYM.
TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE
         FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK
         INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE AND EITHER ADDING
         AT 11A OR 4PM PKG.   AVN MORE COPNSERVATIVE AND GOING WITH
         THIS FOR LOW PROB SHWR OR TSTM EEN-ORE WWD.
TUE: SUSPECT WILL ADD 2-4F TO THE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH +18C AT
     8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH
     HI INTO 97-100 RANGE VCNTY BOS... THEN A WALL OF WATER LATE
     AFTN.  WILL ENHANCE WORDING AT 4P FOR LATE TUE WITH RW+ AND
     LIGHTNING. ALSMOST CERTAINLY WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
     IN 4PM PKG AT LEAST ALL REGION NW OF BOS-BDL LN. INTERIOR SNE
     HEATING ALLOWS TRANSFER DESCENT FM ~850MB...IE 25KTS ENTIRE
     FA...COASTAL DUE TO STRONGER GRADIENT AND INTERIOR DUE TO
     TRANSFER.
TUE NIGHT:  CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING AS
            CURRENTLY FCST ARD MIDNIGHT.
WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES.  CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED
     LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY
     CHILLY.  NE WIND TRANSFER INTERIOR IS 950-900MB 20-25KT
     WHILE WIDE OPEN E MA COAST SHUD GRAB 20-25 KT G FROM BL WIND.
THU: GFS -2SD OF 10O0-850 TKNS. GOING TO BE CHILLY DESPITE RISING
     500MB HTS AND ASSTD 1000-500 TKNS. COOL POOL TRAPPED AND LEFT
     BEHIND HERE IN THE 1000-850 FIELD.
FRI: 00Z/06Z GFS RUNNING ANOTHER LOW NEWD TO AFFECT SNE WITH RAIN
     APPEARS OUT OF SORTS WITH THE EC/UK AND UNSURE WHETHER TO BLV
     THIS SOLN ATTM.
SAT-MON: NOT CONCENTRATING MUCH ON TEMPS NEXT WKND AND EARLY NEXT
         WEEK.  LOOKS LIKE A SIG WARMUP WITH 1 DAY OF 90 POSSIBLE
         EARLY NXT WK...BUT TIMING AND EVOLUTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
MARINE: ONE BURST OF WIND HAS PASSED THRU NEARBY ETL PROFILERS.
        WIND MAY COME UP AGAIN DURING MID AFTN HEATING TO 1 OR 2
        HRS OF 25-28KTS ALONG MA AND RI COAST BUT FOR NOW
        PERSISTENT SCA CONDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE AFTN. THEREFORE
        A SMALL DOWN GRADE FOR TODAY FOR PROBABLISTICALY MOST
        LIKELY...DURATION NON QUALIFIED SCA EVENT. ETA WIND FIELDS
        LOOK GOOD FOR WDSPRD GUSTINESS 25 KTS IN THE AFTN.  12Z GWW
        N/A AS OF THIS WRITING.
.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA LIKELY WILL B BE NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE.
$$
DRAG
</PRE></TT></td>   ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..PRELIM..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
959 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
...90 TO 95F VALLEY NON MARINE INFLUENCED COASTAL PLAIN HEAT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD B REPEATED TUE AFTN PVD-BOS THEN WDSPRD 0.5 TO
1.5" TRW+ QPF FROM 20Z TUE THRU 18Z WED....
SVR: LOW PROB SVR TUESDAY SUSPECT 1 OR 2 STORMS ON THE LEADING
     EDGE OF DRENCHING RAINS...THOSE STORMS WITHIN LEWPS. OTRW
     WIND FIELDS LOOK MARGINAL. GETTING LARGE HAIL WILL HAVE TO
     B ASSTD WITH A MESO SINCE SFC TDS INTO THE LOW OR MID 70S
     ARE USUALLY TOO HIGH AROUND HERE FOR LARGE HAIL. WBZ SHUD B
     NR 13K...ALSO TOO HIGH. CONSERVATIVE MODEL TT FROM THE GFS
     REALLY LEAVE THE RISK OF SVR A LOW PROB. EQUIV POT TEMP LAPSE
     RATES ARE MEAGER AT BEST FOR DEEP LAYER TRANSFER.
QPF: SINCE PW AXIS BUILDS NWD ALONG THE E COAST NEXT 36 HR WITH 2+
     IN SNE BY MID AFTN TUE...CAN SEE ISO PT RAINFALL IN 6 TO 12
     HRS OF TRAINING REACHING 3.5" WITH WDSPRD .5 TO 1.5". MORE
     ON THIS IN THE AFTN RVDBOS AND AFD.
THIS AFTN: FCST TEMPS PROB RAISED 2-4F IN 11 AM PKG.  HI SHUD RISE
           INTO THE UPPER 90S MID AFTN.
TONIGHT: RUC AND AVN PAINT A SMATTERING OF QPF INTO NW PTN OF THE
         FA. ENOUGH KI TO SUGGESTS SOME NYS ACTIVITY MAY LEAK
         INTO NW MA AND SW NH AFTER 00Z THIS EVE AND EITHER ADDING
         AT 11A OR 4PM PKG.
TUE: SUSPECT WILL ADD 2-4F TO THE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH +18C AT
     8H TO START THE DAY. LOOKS TO ME LIKE HOT AND SUNNY WITH
     HI INTO 97-100 RANGE VCNTY BOS... THEN A WALL OF WATER LATE
     AFTN.  PROB NEED TO ADD ENHANCED RW+ AND LIGHTNING  IN THE 4PM
     PKG IF NOT 11 AM. ALSMOST CERTAINLY WILL RAISE POPS TO
     CATEGORICAL IN 11 AM PKG AT LEAST ALL REGION NW OF BOS-BDL LN.
TUE NIGHT:  CATEGORICAL ON WDSPRD SHWRS WITH TSTMS DIMINISHING TWD
            DAWN.
WED: MODEL DIFFERENCES.  CHILLY...TEMPS ALONG E MA COAST AT 18Z WED
     LIKELY TO BE 25-30F COOLER THAN 18Z TUE..IE COMPARATIVELY
     CHILLY.
MARINE: ONE BURST OF WIND HAS PASSED THRU NEARBY ETL PROFILERS.
        WIND MAY COME UP AGAIN DURING MID AFTN HEATING TO 1 OR 2
        HRS OF 25-28KTS ALONG MA AND RI COAST BUT FOR NOW
        PERISISTENT SCA CONDS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE AFTN. THEREFORE
        A SMALL DOWN GRADE FOR TODAY FOR PROBABLISTICALY MOST
        LIKELY...DURATION NON QUALIFIED SCA EVENT.
.BOX...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SCA MAY BE NEEDED ALL WATERS TUE.
$$
DRAG
</PRE></TT></td>   ma
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1045 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAVE
CLEARED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE CWFA ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
ARE STILL HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...
SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NW/N AND LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S AND 50S. LATEST RUC HAS 12Z DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 55 IN
THE NRN CWFA TO 65 SOUTH... A WELCOME CHANGE. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE
SHOWERS FROM THE FCST AS SOON AS SHOWERS ON RADAR EXIT JXN COUNTY.
WINDS MAY NEED SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.
MEADE
.GRR...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM 20Z TO 00Z...PER THE LATEST RUC
SOLUTION. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS ALREADY
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
NORTHERN INDIANA. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
COME FROM SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. MODIFIED 12Z KDTX SOUNDING FOR A
TEMP OF 94 AND DEWPOINT OF 75 GIVES A CAPE OF 5200 J/KG. MODEL
SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL SHOWING SOME DRYING IN THE MID
LEVELS. THIS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WAS NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS ON THE
12Z RAOBS. SO ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT THAT
STRONG...NEGATIVE BUOYANCY POTENTIAL AND THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND K INDICES IN THE UPPER 30S WILL ALSO
SPELL GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STORMS. TIMING THE
ONSET OF THE STORMS WILL BE DIFFICULT AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL AID DEVELOPMENT WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT HEAT INDICES. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT
ATTAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A GOOD
BIT OF CLEARING UPSTREAM THOUGH...THINK THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
.DTX...HEAT ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON...
       MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083
CONSIDINE
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1115 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW UPR TROFFING OVR SCNTRL CAN ON
TOP OF BROAD RDG ACRS THE SRN CONUS. RIBBON OF MSTR IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FNT AHD OF THE UPR TROF EXTENDS FM THE CNTRL PLAINS NE INTO THE
CWA. 12Z KGRB SDNG WITHIN THIS MOIST AIRSTREAM SHOWS KINX 34 (H85
DWPT 14C)...BUT A MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THAT LIMITS INSTABILITY
DESPITE SFC DWPTS ARND 70. SO JUST SCT SHRA...NO TSRA...IN ADVANCE
OF FNT OVR THE ERN ZNS ATTM IN ADVANCE OF FNT. THESE SHRA MOVG
STEADILY EWD WITH BNDRY. THERE IS QUITE A GRADIENT OF MSTR ALF
BEHIND FNT...GOES DERIVED SDNG FOR IWD AT 10Z INDICATES KINX 23 AND
12Z MPX SDNG INDICATES KINX 20. SO SKIES CLR FOLLOWING FROPA AS
FAIRLY STRG WLY FLOW IN THE NW GRT LKS (12Z INL SDNG SHOWS WNW WNDS
ARND H85 UP TO 35 KT) PUSHES DRY AIR EWD. HOWEVER...LLVL MSTR IS
MUCH SLOWER TO FALL OFF...SFC DWPT STILL IN UPR 50S OVR THE WRN ZNS.
THERE IS ANOTHER SHARP SFC-H85 TROF MOVG INTO NRN MN FM ONTARIO ATTM
IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DROPPING S THRU MANITOBA AS DEPICTED ON WV
LOOP. SOME SHRA OCCURRING OVR FAR WRN ONTARIO JUST N OF CYQT...BUT
H85-6 LAPSE RATES NO STEEPER THAN MOIST ADIABATIC/KINX 22 LIMITING
INTENSITY OF CNVCTN. CU FIELD EXPANDING IN NRN MN ATTM AS H85 RAOBS
SHOW TEMPS FALLING AT THAT LVL EVEN IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY TROF ABV
SFC HTG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE SHRA TRENDS ACRS THE E THIS MRNG...MAX
TEMPS...AND THEN PCPN CHCS AGAIN LATER TDAY IN ADVANCE OF SECONDARY
TROF NOW APRCHG NRN MN.
12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS UPR TROFFING BRUSHING THRU THE NW GRT LKS THIS
AFTN AS FIRST COLD FNT PUSHES SE AND SECONDARY TROF DROPS S INTO
CWA. UPR DRYING CONTS TO SPRD E...WITH RUC SHOWING KINX DROPPING
WELL INTO 20S OVR CWA DURG AFTN. XPCT LINGERING SHRA TO BE OUT OF
ERN ZNS BEFORE NOON. RUC INDICATES MORE SHRA WL DVLP LATER TDAY IN
ADVANCE OF SECONDARY TROF WITH CAPES AT MNM RISING TOWARD 2000 J/KG
BY LATE IN DAY. HOWEVER...RUC INDICATES DWPT WL BE 71...WHICH
APPEARS UNRSNBL CONSIDERING DRYING OBSVD TO THE W...FALLING H85 TEMP
IN ADVANCE OF TROF...AND FCST WLY WND IN THE LLVLS. 06Z ETA MODEL
LOOKS MORE RSNBL IN CONFINING SOME LGT PCPN TO KEWEENAW ZNS WITH
MANITOBA VORT LOBE BRUSHING ONLY THAT PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. ETA
FCST SDNGS SHOW SHARPENING INVRN ARND H7 OVR CWA ABV WELL MIXED PBL
WITH ADIABATIC LLVL LAPSE RATES. SO EVEN THOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVRN WL
BE STRG ENUF TO CAP CNVCTN...LOOK FOR SOME SC AS MODEST LLVL MSTR
MIXES OUT UNDER INVRN. THIS FCST CONSISTENT WITH EXPANDING CU FIELD
OBSVD IN ADVANCE OF TROF NOW IN NRN MN AND FALLING H85 TEMPS FCST.
MIXING UP TO H85 (ADD 14C TO FCST H85 TEMP) SUGS TMAX WL REACH AS HI
AS LO 80S ACRS SE ZNS...WHERE INCRSG WLY FLOW WL SQUASH LK MI
BREEZE. THIS FLOW WL ENHANCE LK SUP MODERATION/COOLING ACRS THE W.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
950 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002
950 PM...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREDICTED BY ETA AND RUC FOR REST
OF THE NIGHT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  REMOVED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.  DRYING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT...FASTER
THAN ANTICIPATED...SO LOWERED DEWPOINTS BY SEVERAL CATEGORIES
ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF AREA.  ALSO HAD TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...
AS TEMPERATURES WHERE RAIN OCCURRED ONLY A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE FORECAST MINS.  IT DOESN'T APPEAR AS IF FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AS SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES MORE OR LESS DECREASE
THROUGH 800 MB.
SF
342 PM...
NOT MANY CHANGES FROM THIS MORNINGS THINKING. COLD FRONT IS ON
SCHEDULE...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI HAVE PROMPTED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST LOCATION FOR PULSE SEVERE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SOUTHEAST OF
THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST. BEST
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA. FLOW IS
QUITE WEAK SO STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...THEREFORE
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...TAKING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAT INDICES ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI AREA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DROP...SO WILL CANCEL THE HEAT
ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. ANOTHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
NRR
430 AM...
MAIN CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS POSITIVE TILT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IN
WESTERLIES FROM MN THROUGH NE AT 00Z WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TO THE
NORTH IS HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  COOL
FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIP OF MISSOURI THIS
MORNING.  EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IS ALSO HELPING
THE FRONT TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
BROKEN OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO LAST COUPLE HOURS AND IS FITTING
THE 3 HOUR QPF FROM OUR LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA MODEL (WSETA) QUITE
WELL.
ETA AND AVN MODELS ARE HINTING AT CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY.  ETA AND WSETA ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  THEN REDEVELOPING IT ALONG THE
FRONT AROUND MID-DAY.  I AM LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH LIKELY
POPS SOUTHERN 2/3S OF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TOUGH.  WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TODAY SOUTH OF A PAOLA TO BOONVILLE LINE AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AND POOLING OF DEWPOINTS...WITH ENOUGH SUN TO GET THE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WILL MAKE IT QUITE HOT AGAIN.  TIMING OF
FRONT...REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL
PLAY HAVOC WITH HIGHS AND PLAY A ROLE IN THE NEED FOR THE HEAT
ADVISORY.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL AND SHEAR IS WEAK.
AFTER TODAY...AREA COOLS SLIGHTLY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS.  NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK.  LOG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH EAST COAST TROUGH.  RESULT IS A
PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW TRANSITORY SYSTEMS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
BROWNING
.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
840 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002
CORRECTED CCF NUMBERS
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE AND PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH SKY CONDITION FORECAST TO COVER CURRENT
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS MOVE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MT BY MORNING...AND KEEP LOW QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO WORD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT. FURTHER SOUTH...MAIN CONVECTIVE
ENERGY HAS MOVED INTO WYOMING...WILL UPDATE THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO DECREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL EXAMINE MOS GUIDANCE ONCE IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE. MPJ
.EXTENDED...NEWEST AVN RUN COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
CURRENT SCENARIO KEEPS NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...INCREASE TO SCATTERED POPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH SOME COOLING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MPJ
.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 055/085 058/088 058 13123
    BBBTB 085/053 082/051 083/053 082/052 084 12222222321
CTB BB 049/082 056/085 056 13011
    BBBTB 085/050 079/051 080/050 079/051 081 11122222321
HLN TT 058/088 060/086 058 13123
    BBBTB 086/054 085/054 086/055 084/055 085 22222222321
BZN TT 053/088 055/086 055 13234
    BBBTB 086/052 084/053 085/052 082/053 084 23222222321
WEY TT 046/082 046/082 043 13234
    BBBTB 082/044 077/042 079/043 075/042 078 22222222321
DLN TT 052/088 052/086 052 13134
    BBBTB 086/051 085/052 084/053 082/051 085 23222222321
HVR BB 052/086 056/088 058 13011
    BBBTB 086/055 087/053 086/055 083/052 086 22122222321
LWT TT 054/081 056/084 055 13124
    BBBTB 084/052 083/051 082/053 079/051 082 22222222321=
.TFX...NONE
</PRE></TT></td>   mt
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
810 PM MDT MON JUL 22 2002
WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE FORECAST
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES.
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE AND PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH SKY CONDITION FORECAST TO COVER CURRENT
CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. MESO-ETA AND RUC MODELS MOVE THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MT BY MORNING...AND KEEP LOW QPF AMOUNTS IN
THE AREA AS WELL. WILL ALSO WORD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MT. FURTHER SOUTH...MAIN CONVECTIVE
ENERGY HAS MOVED INTO WYOMING...WILL UPDATE THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO DECREASE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND ALLOW SKIES TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MAKING CHANGES
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL EXAMINE MOS GUIDANCE ONCE IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE. MPJ
.EXTENDED...NEWEST AVN RUN COMING INTO LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
CURRENT SCENARIO KEEPS NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN DEVELOPS A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
MONTANA ON MONDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...INCREASE TO SCATTERED POPS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND DRY THINGS OUT ON MONDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH SOME COOLING
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. MPJ
.CCF NUMBERS
GTF BB 055/085 058/088 058 13023
    BBBTB 085/053 082/051 083/053 082/052 084 12222222321
CTB BB 049/082 056/085 056 13011
    BBBTB 085/050 079/051 080/050 079/051 081 11122222321
HLN TT 058/088 060/086 058 13123
    BBBTB 086/054 085/054 086/055 084/055 085 22222222321
BZN TT 053/088 055/086 055 13434
    BBBTB 086/052 084/053 085/052 082/053 084 23222222321
WEY TT 046/082 046/082 043 13634
    BBBTB 082/044 077/042 079/043 075/042 078 22222222321
DLN TT 052/088 052/086 052 13434
    BBBTB 086/051 085/052 084/053 082/051 085 23222222321
HVR BB 052/086 056/088 058 13011
    BBBTB 086/055 087/053 086/055 083/052 086 22122222321
LWT TT 054/081 056/084 055 13124
    BBBTB 084/052 083/051 082/053 079/051 082 22222222321=
.TFX...NONE
</PRE></TT></td>   mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1228 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
TRWS QUICKLY BLOWING UP ON THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY. LATEST LAPS (RUC BASED)
ANALYSES OF CAPE VLAUES SHOW 3800 J/KG BULLSEYE OVER CENTRAL LK ERIE
WITH ALL OF WRN NEW YORK NOW ABOVE 2500 J/KG (AGAIN...BASED ON RUC).
HAVE UPDATED WRN SRN TIER TO REMOVE TIMING.
REMAINDER OF PACKAGE LEFT INTACT...EARLIER AFD LEFT BELOW.
HERE WE GO AGAIN...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I SAY MAJORITY BECAUSE
THE CURRENT RW/TRW ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN LK ONTARIO MAY PREVENT THE
NORTH COUNTRY FROM ACHIEVING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL TEMP OF LOWER 90S.
HAVE SHADED THEIR TEMPS DOWNWARDS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS IN UPDATE.
LATEST RUC40 PROJECTS CAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG FROM ROC TO OSWEGO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN 500MB TEMPS AND
CONTINUITY OF CAPE VALUES FROM LAST EVENINGS ETA AND 06Z MESO ETA.
IN ANY CASE...CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BUT WE LACK A TRIGGER TO GET ANY USE FROM THIS POTENTIAL
ENERGY.
THE ONLY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
INLAND TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 WITH LK TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WILL CERTAINLY
HELP IN THE FORMATION OF BOUNDAIRES...WITH STRONG MECHANICAL
ASSISTANCE FROM A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND OFF LK ERIE. THIS STRONG SW WIND
SHOULD PROTECT AREAS FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA FROM TRW...BUT ACTIVITY
ON ITS BOUNDAIRES MAY BE ENHANCED. RUC40 PICKS UP ON THE SHADOWING
EFFECTS FROM THIS WIND.
CURRENT KBUF RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY ALONG THE NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTY
LAKE SHORE...RIGHT ALONG WHERE THE LK ERI BOUNDARY WOULD BE IN PLACE.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF TO BAT CORRIDOR.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS PW'S
HAVE CLIMBED TO 2 INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABV 14K ARE NOT
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH HIGH (AND "FAT") CAPE
VALUES IN PLACE...SMALL HAIL NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED.
KBUF RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SW ACROSS
NIAGARA AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THIS IS A RESULT FROM THE LK ONTARIO
STORMS...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OVER THE TONAWANDAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BUF...NONE.
RSH
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1015 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
REMNANTS OF MCS THAT FORMED OVER ONTARIO LAST EVENING ARE WANING
INTO SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AND I EXPECT
LTL FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. NRN ZONES WILL BE KEPT PRETTY MUCH
AS IS WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS DESTABILIZATION
AND OUTFLOW BNDRY COULD KEEP ACTIVITY REGENERATING. DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...SYR ALREADY CHECKING IN AT 84 DEGS AT 10 AM...SO WILL NUDGE
UP THE TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 90S...CLOSER TO MAV/FWC/ETA GUIDANCE.
ELSEWHERE...WILL BRING A BIT MORE SUN INTO THE PICTURE FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND NUDGE TEMPS IN THE SRN TIER TO AROUND 90. VRY LTL
FORCING AVAIL TO TAP INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOS TAFTN BUT 09Z RUC DOES
INDICATE SOME MCONVG AND RESULTING QPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES NOTED FROM MCS..SO A LTL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOCUSED ON THESE FEATURES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL
BACK OFF THE IMPLIED CATEGORICAL WORDING OF "SCATTERED" COVERAGE AND
LOWER TSRA CHANCES A BIT OVER THE REST OF CNY AND NEPA FCST AREA.
MAIN FRONT AND UPR SUPPORT IS STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE
WEST OF AREA AND I SUSPECT THAT MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING SYSTEM INTO
THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT SLIGHTLY FAST AS THEY HAVE BEEN DOING ALL
SUMMER. WILL CHECK TRENDS OF 12Z RUNS BEFORE MAKING TOO MANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT ATTM I ANTICIPATE SLOWING
DOWN FROPA AND PRECIP BY 6 HOURS OR SO WHICH WOULD GIVE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND NOT LATE TONIGHT. MORE ON THIS WITH
AFTERNOON PKG.
WRKZON AVAIL IN AWIPS.
.BGM...NONE.
BREWSTER
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1012 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
HERE WE GO AGAIN...OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON TAP THIS AFTERNOON
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I SAY MAJORITY BECAUSE
THE CURRENT RW/TRW ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN LK ONTARIO MAY PREVENT THE
NORTH COUNTRY FROM ACHIEVING THEIR MAX POTENTIAL TEMP OF LOWER 90S.
HAVE SHADED THEIR TEMPS DOWNWARDS A BIT TO REFLECT THIS IN UPDATE.
LATEST RUC40 PROJECTS CAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG FROM ROC TO OSWEGO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN 500MB TEMPS AND
CONTINUITY OF CAPE VALUES FROM LAST EVENINGS ETA AND 06Z MESO ETA.
IN ANY CASE...CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY BUT WE LACK A TRIGGER TO GET ANY USE FROM THIS POTENTIAL
ENERGY.
THE ONLY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
INLAND TEMPS OF 90 TO 95 WITH LK TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WILL CERTAINLY
HELP IN THE FORMATION OF BOUNDAIRES...WITH STRONG MECHANICAL
ASSISTANCE FROM A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND OFF LK ERIE. THIS STRONG SW WIND
SHOULD PROTECT AREAS FROM BUFFALO TO BATAVIA FROM TRW...BUT ACTIVITY
ON ITS BOUNDAIRES MAY BE ENHANCED. RUC40 PICKS UP ON THE SHADOWING
EFFECTS FROM THIS WIND.
CURRENT KBUF RADAR SHOWS ACTIVITY ALONG THE NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTY
LAKE SHORE...RIGHT ALONG WHERE THE LK ERI BOUNDARY WOULD BE IN PLACE.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY SAG SOUTH A BIT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ACTIVITY IN THE IMMEDIATE BUF TO BAT CORRIDOR.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL CONTAIN TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AS PW'S
HAVE CLIMBED TO 2 INCHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ABV 14K ARE NOT
THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WITH HIGH (AND "FAT") CAPE
VALUES IN PLACE...SMALL HAIL NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED.
KBUF RADAR IS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SW ACROSS
NIAGARA AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THIS IS A RESULT FROM THE LK ONTARIO
STORMS...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
INTERACTIONS OVER THE TONAWANDAS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BUF...NONE.
RSH
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1045 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPROVE ON PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST
LIKE TO BE INVOLVED WITH FINE TUNING WINDS AND TEMPS BUT SO FAR
BOTH ELEMENTS ARE WITHIN SPEC AND ZFP UPDATE NOT NEEDED ATTM.
MARINE: BUBBLE SFC HIGH OVER AREA HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT/VRBL EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND BEING ABSORBED INTO
BERMUDA HIGH PATTERN. LATEST RUC40 HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL
USE TO REINITIALIZE FOR UPDATE.
.MHX...NONE.
COLBY/JBM
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002
...LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SCORCHER TODAY...
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND WARM SW BREEZES TODAY ALL
POINT TO A HAZY...HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE CWA. WILL UPDATE TO
TWEAK TEMPS UP A NOTCH AND REDUCE CLOUDS WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY WAS
ISSUED EARLIER. WILL ALSO MENTION HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY
CATEGORY ACROSS LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AS T/TDS PROGGED FOR LATER
TODAY GIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 104F.
SPC HAS NORTHERN AREAS UNDER SLIGHT RISK SO WILL TINT WORDING TO
POSSIBLE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AS PWS 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES ON LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. REST OF
CWA WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.
.CTP...SPS FOR SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER NORTHERN PA. SPS FOR
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY FOR HEAT INDICES APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DIRIENZO
...PREVIOUS AFD...
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK SHEAR AXIS
DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE.  THIS AREA OF LIFT
HAS BROKEN THE CAP AND TOUCHED OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. 00 UTC ETA INDICATES THIS AXIS SETTLING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN HALF OF PA AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  WITH VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
(PWS INCREASING TO OVER 1.5") WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS OVER
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.  HEAT
INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE HIGH 90S...SO NO HEAT ADVISORY
WARRANTED FOR OUR FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.
CHANCE POPS CONTINUED TONIGHT AS LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ARRIVES.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  WILL
CARRY LIKELY POPS AND SCATTERED THUNDER FOR MOST SECTIONS DURING THE
DAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  BOUNDARY
WILL STALL JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...SO SCATTERED POPS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHEAST ZONE CUTS ON WEDNESDAY.
EASTERN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRY THINGS OUT FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND STUCK CLOSE TO MOS POPS/TEMPS IN EXTENDED.
WORK ZONES ALREADY SENT AS PHLWRKMIS.
FCSTID = 7
MDT   91  73  90  71 /  20  30  60  60
IPT   93  71  87  64 /  30  50  70  60
BFD   89  69  80  56 /  50  50  60  30
JST   87  71  82  63 /  30  50  70  60
AOO   91  71  86  66 /  20  50  70  60
UNV   89  70  84  64 /  30  50  70  60
SEG   92  72  89  67 /  20  50  70  60
LNS   90  73  90  73 /  20  30  60  60
THV   91  74  90  72 /  20  30  60  60
DEVOIR
</PRE></TT></td>   pa
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2002
CLOUDS DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS PER FORECAST. CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST RESULTING IN SOME
RESIDUAL BLOW OFF CLOUDS EDGING INTO TH EWRN PORTIONS OF SODAK ATTM.
WITH MID LVL RIDGE IN PLACE THIS ACTIVITY LMAY DISSIPATE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...BUT NEW RUC
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND DRIFTING
EAST...ALLOWING ENOUGH ENERGY TO MOVE EAST FOR REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE NRN CWA. WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY DUE TO LESS THAN
FAVORABLE LOW LVL WIND PROFILES...LACK OF LLJ AND SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE...MAY SEE SOME CLOUD MAKE IT INTO THE WRN CWA BY
MORNING. WILL MAKE A MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR A BIT MORE
CLOUDINESS OUT WEST BY MORNING.
.ABR...NONE.
FAUCETTE
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
245 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT THE 500MB RUC SHOWS ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER MOB ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WL LIKELY TRIGGER SOME REDEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.
WET WX PATTERN CONTINUES AS MAIN WX FEATURES CHANGE LITTLE. THE
UPPER LOW OVER GA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN DRIFT SLOWLY WEST
INTO AL WED AND WEAKEN THU. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
WL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH INTO AL/GA BEFORE STALLING AS A
WAVE TRACKS NE UP IT ALONG THE APALACHINS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH PW'S NEAR 2 IN AND CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG THRU
WED AS A DEEP SW-W FLOW PUMPS IN GULF MOISTURE. NO CLEAR SEA BREEZE
REGIMES ARE EXPECTED AS WX PATTERN REMAINS DISTURBED. DESPITE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH HIGHEST QPFS REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
BIG BEND AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GA PORTION OF THE CWA.
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.
MARINE: THE BURMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS WL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF WATERS
MAINTAINING A GENERAL LIGHT SW-W FLOW ALTHOUGH WL SPLIT MARINE ZONES
EAST-WEST TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW
PRODUCING SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. WIDELY SCATTTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR LOCALLY
ROUGH CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED: THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING BACK IN FROM THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WITH BELOW NORMAL POPS IS EXPECTED.
PRELIM NUMBERS:
TLH 089 073 091 074 7363
PFN 088 076 088 076 7363
DHN 089 073 091 073 6353
ABY 089 073 090 073 7363
VLD 089 072 091 073 7363
.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.
MME
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
415 AM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002
THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALONG
WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES.  MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT PAST SEVERAL RUNS IN ADVERTISING ONSET OF WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS CWA.  MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AVN AND ETA IN NEXT 36
HOURS IS AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH RIDES OVER BROAD UPPER
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL US WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
VERY NEAR TERM CONCERN IS WITH WEAK RADAR RETURNS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST CWA.  ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ON NOSE OF 30 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WITH MODERATE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  ALSO WINDS
CUTTING ACROSS STRONG 800-700 HPA THETA-E GRADIENT IN AREA WHERE
WEAK RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED.  THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...EXPECT LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RELAXES TO A
DEGREE ACROSS FAR WESTERN CWA.  LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE IN 850-700 HPA LAYER MIGRATING INTO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA.  00Z KABR SOUNDING STILL SHOWING LARGE MID LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND NOT EXPECTING THIS AREA OF -TSRA TO MAKE IT AS FAR
EAST AS KABR THIS MORNING.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED MORNING -TSRA
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA SUGGESTING SEVERAL MINOR SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL US.  BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WEAK VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING MOVES INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF CWA ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.  ZONALLY ORIENTED 70 KNOT UPPER JET PASSING THROUGH BASE OF
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES CWA WHICH WILL PUT
NORTHERN CWA IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENT REGION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION.  BEST 850-700 HPA WARM ADVECTION ALSO BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST CWA.  GIVEN THIS...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CWA AND SLIGHT MENTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
CWA.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION ACROSS WEST IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MORE CLOUD COVER.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT AS 35-40 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN LOW AND MID
LEVELS.  NICE VEERING PROFILE IN LOW LEVELS TONIGHT BUT CONVECTION
WILL ELEVATED WITH LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY.
SOME SPEED SHEAR IN DEEPER LAYER FROM 3 TO 6 KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.  WILL MAINTAIN POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERTED TROUGH AXIS SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL
CWA WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO -6 TO -10 ACROSS EASTERN CWA.
WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY WITH NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WELL EAST OF CWA.  HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
EXTENDED AS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH EVOLVES
AND TIMING SHORT WAVES IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE TOUGH.  WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED AS IT WILL BE TOUGH NOT TO BROAD
BRUSH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
.ABR...NONE.
MARSILI
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
SFC-H70 BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS IS LYING OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...
POSITION IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE 12Z PENINSULA RAOBS.  RUC40
ANALYSIS PLACES THE MEAN H85-H50 AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE S
ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  WCSB SHOULD MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS THIS
AFTN...AND STRONGER STEERING OVER THE NRN CWA WILL FAVOR THAT AREA
FOR DIURNAL PRECIP.  LOWER COVERAGE TO THE S DUE TO WEAKER STEERING
FLOW...BUT DRY POCKET IN THE H70-H40 OFF THE KMFL SOUNDING DOES
SUGGEST A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS.  LYR DOES
MORNING PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD.  WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING...
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
MARINE...SFC/LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS
PLACING THE NRN WATERS IN A S/SW SFC FLOW.  WILL MAKE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.  OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1110 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN KY REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE
LIKE YESTERDAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A LITTLE HIGHER...IN THE
1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT A VORT
MAX...SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY NOW...MOVES OVER
NORTHEAST KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT WE HESITATE
TO LOWER THE 60 POP WE HAVE GOING. THE REMARK ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
TUNED DOWN A BIT TO SHOW ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS BASICALLY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP A MID-LEVEL
ROTATION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMGING WINDS.
SCHAUB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD
FRONT SAGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ON
SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE FRONT ARE
WEAKENING AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
JUST SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...LOCALLY IT IS NOW QUIET BUT FURTHER WEST A
COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG OUT
FLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE WESTERLIES TODAY LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THE AVN FEATURES A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION
48 HOURS AGO FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK. THIS TOO LIFTS OUT DURING THE
WEEKEND RETURNING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWS APPROACH 2 INCHES.
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORM OR COMPLEX OF SUCH. THOUGH...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. IN THIS AIRMASS
NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR SOAKING RAINS. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT NEVER FULLY CLEARS THE
AREA...JUST WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL GIVE THE SFC PATTERN AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK THURSDAY MAKING
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUIETER
WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO FOLLOW...BUT AN IMPULSE IN THE NOW ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AS WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
MANY DIFFERENCES IN MOS TEMPS AND POPS BETWEEN THE AVN AND NGM.
PICKED AND CHOSE ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO. PREFER WARMER NGM
TEMPS WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER MAV POPS.
AS FOR GFE/IFPS...LOADED AND TWEAKED THE MESOETA/S WINDS AND TEMPS
THROUGH 60 HOURS...HAD TO ADJUST SOME AREAS OF MODELED RAIN COOLED
MAXES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. REST OF GRIDS INHERITED WERE HIGH QUALITY
...JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NEW MODELS AND NDFD BLEND.
WORK ZONES AVAILABLE UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO
LONG.
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ TE 088/068 083/065 084 65423
JKL TB 086/066 085/066 083 64312
.JKL...NONE
GREIF
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1103 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
SCT SHWRS OVR AREA THIS AM. HV RCVD CPL RPRTS OF WTRSPTS OFF CRYSTAL
CST. LTST LCL SNDG SHWG WET ALL THE WAY UP WITH PW AT 2.16 AND
UNMODIFIED CAPE 2470. HVY DWNPOURS WL CONT AS IMPULSES ROTATE ARND
THE UPR LO OVR THE SE. LTST RUC SHOWG 00Z ETA VERIFIED WELL WI POSN
OF SFC FNT...WHICH WL RMN TO OUR W THRU THE FP. RUC ALSO SHWG BEST
CONCENTRATE OF PCPN WL BE ALNG THE CST...SHIFTING TO INLAND BY LT
AFTN. XPCT TEMPS NR 80 ALNG THE CST TO MID 80S INLAND. SUM BRKS IN
THE CLDS ATTM. HWVR CLD CVR SHUD FILL IN SHORTLY HELPING TO KP TEMPS
DWN AND THREAT OF TSTMS AT A MIN. WL PIDDLE WI TEMPS IF NECESSARY
AND PSBLY POPS. BUT NO MJR CHGS PLANND.
MARINE: HEAVY DOWNPOURS DROPPING LOOSE FROM 25KFT TOP CELLS IS
REDUCING VSBY IN THE WATERS TODAY. APPEARS ECHO TREND IS SHIFTING
HEAVIER RAINS INLAND WHILE OFFSHORE RAIN ARE EASING UP A BIT. SWIRL
NOTED IN VSBL OVR CNTRL NC SEEMS TO ASSISTING ENHANCEMENT OF INLAND
RAINS AS IT MOVES NE TWD THE VA BRDR. WILL MAINTAIN SW 15 TO 20 KT
WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEA THIS UPDATE. MONITOR MARINE SANCTUARY
CREWS REPORT SW 18 KT SEAS 4 TO 5 FEET SW OF DSLN7. LOOKS LIKE SW
FLOW WILL HANG ON INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT STAY AND W OF THE COAST.
.MHX...
CGG-G/COLBY
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
WARM...VERY MOIST...SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES OVER THE
CWA. PER MORNING RAOBS...PRECIPITABLE WATERS GENERALLY FROM 1.75
TO OVER 2 INCHES...LI'S -2 TO -4. CURRENTLY IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL NCAROLINA GENERATING SCATTERED...MAINLY LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS. LATEST RUC SHOW THIS MOVING OFF TO NORTHEAST LATER
THIS MORNING...06Z M-ETA SLOWER--OVER AREA BETTER PART OF THE
DAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER..BUT SEEING SOME BREAKS. MAKES
AFTERNOON MAXES A BIT TRICKY. MAY NEED TO TWEAK A BIT.
MORNING THICKNESS INDICATE UPPER 80S.
SO LATE MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX TEMPERATURES.
.RAH...NONE.
RA
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
950 AM MDT TUE JUL 23 2002
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.  SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
.DISCUSSION...MADE NUMEROUS CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON
ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH.  SOME HEALTHY AREAS OF CONVECTION
SOME SPOTS.  LATEST AVN SHOWS A WEAK VORT LOBE CLIPPING THE EXTREME
NORTH THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...LIKELY HELPING CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY THOUGH WE SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT.  EXPECT THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH TO
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BUT LEAVE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO HELP GET CONVECTION GOING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...JUST SO
LONG AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MORNING SHORT WAVE DOESN'T CAP IT.  12Z
RUC FORECASTS QUITE LOW LIFTED INDICES ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z...AS
LOW AS -6 OVER UINTAS.  EARLIER MESOETA DIDN'T HANDLE MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL...KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA PRECIPITATION
FREE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE 12Z RUN FINALLY PICKED UP ON THEM.
BELIEVE EVEN 12Z RUN IS UNDERDONE ON AFTERNOON PRECIP...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  THUS ADDED POPS IN APPROPRIATE PLACES WHERE
THERE WERE NO POPS...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT IN PLACES.  WE SHOULD
SEE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH DRYING SHOULD MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND PULLS MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH.  AT THE SAME TIME
THE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY...ONE THAT ROTATES AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH AND
GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.  WV LOOP SHOWS THIS FEATURE QUITE
WELL CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA.  THE 06Z AVN WAS FAIRLY
STRONG WITH THIS SHORT WAVE...MOVING IT ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
MORNING. SIMILAR TIMING THOUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON 12Z ETA.
SLC 322 CDC 212  JACKSON
.SLC...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   ut
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 23 2002
LATEST WV PICS SHOWS LARGE RIDGE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
US.  ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SRN WY/NW CO...WITH ANOTHER VORT
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SW AZ.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALSO
SHOWING WEAK PV LOBE MOVING THROUGH NRN CO...AND CONVECTION SEEMS
TO BE FIRING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE.  ACROSS THE PLAINS...DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 50S.
FOR TONIGHT...BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHERE SFC HEATING IS SUFFICIENT TO REALIZED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE).
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS...POPS ARE A TOUGH CALL...AS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A CAP AROUND 675 MB...WITH ANOTHER AROUND 500
MB.  CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S COULD BREAK THE CAP...
BUT STILL NOT MUCH CAPE TO REALIZE ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
WITH WEAK PV LOBE MOVING THROUGH...WILL OPT TO KEEP 20 POPS IN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR THE EVENING. LATEST VIS SAT SHOWS SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...
WHICH MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WOULD BE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...
WITH PRECIP H20 THE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS.  FIRE AREAS AND THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ROCK/MUD SLIDES COULD
BE PRONE TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
WED...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS UPPER TROUGH
ENTERS NW COAST.  AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH NRN ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THIS ALLOWS LEE TROUGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD
WHICH PUSHES THE DRY LINE INTO WRN KS BY AFTERNOON. 700 TEMPS WARM TO
BETWEEN +15 AND +18C SO 90S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 100S ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS SEEM REASONABLE.  WILL BUMP UP TEMPS SOME OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SOME. MOISTURE UNDER SOUTH SIDE OF UPPER HIGH WILL BE
PUSHED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW AS HIGH PUSHES WESTWARD...SO
MAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
WHERE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. WITH NE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING OFF THE MTNS...SO
WILL KEEP THE SE PLAINS DRY.  PRECIP H20S DROP AROUND
.50 OR LESS...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS
THUNDERSTORMS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
ON THURSDAY...BOTH ETA/AVN BRING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SE AZ
AROUND UPPER RIDGE ACROSS NRN CO/SRN WY IN THE AFTERNOON.  AVN
OBVIOUSLY HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THIS FEATURE...
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE CONTAMINATED DEW POINT GRIDS ETC FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THEREFORE HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO ETA SOLUTION AND HAVE FUDGED
MOISTURE GRIDS DOWN SOME. 700 TEMPS WARM BACK UP TO +18 TO +20C...
WHICH WOULD YIELD LOWER 100S ACROSS SE CO...WHICH ETA GUIDANCE IS
GIVING. IN FACT...GRIDS FROM MESO-ETA SHOWING 106 AT LAA!  (PROBABLY
NOT ALL THAT IMPOSSIBLE, BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HOT JUST YET.)
AT ANY RATE...HOT TEMPS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL BUMP UP
TEMPS IN GRIDS. ONLY HIGH BASED MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT WITH
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH...ITS HARD TO REMOVE ALL POPS.
WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS CONFINED TO THE MTN AREAS.
FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES INLAND ON
FRIDAY.  A BIT OF CHALLENGE THIS DAY AS WELL...AS ETAX KEEPS RIDGE
OVER CO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED...WITH LOWER TROP FLOW WESTERLY INTO
LEE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.  AVN IN CONTRAST DEVELOPS SFC LOW
OVER SW KS WHICH PULLS HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO
FOR THE AFTERNOON.   OBVIOUSLY AVN IS HAVING SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE
FEED BACK PROBLEMS WITH SHORTWAVE FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE...AND ITS
HARD TO KNOW HOW MUCH THIS HAS INFLUENCED SFC FIELDS.  THE BOTTOM
LINE...ETA WOULD ARGUE FOR ANOTHER HOT DRY DAY (700 TEMPS +19 TO
+20C) WITH LOWER 100S ACROSS SE PLAINS.  WHILE AVN WOULD SUGGEST AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL COMPROMISE ON THE TEMPS A BIT...AND WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED
POPS FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DROP THE POPS ACROSS THE
SE PLAINS IF ETAX SOLUTION PANS OUT.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE PATTERN CHANGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AS
UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN US ROCKIES.
WEAK VORTS MOVE ACROSS AREA WITH TIMING DIFFICULT...BUT PROBABLY
ENOUGH MOISTURE AT LEAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO WARRANT ISOLATED POPS
EACH DAY.  SOUTHEAST PLAINS STILL A TOUGH CALL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TENDS TO PUSH THE DRY LINE OUT TOWARDS KS. BUT STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS
TO MOVE OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
POSITION OF THE DRY LINE AS WELL...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SEEM WARRANTED
FOR MOST AREAS.  GFS BRINGS WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SE CO ON SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME SORT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER KS/NE ON SUN NIGHT. FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BROAD WRLY FLOW SETS UP WITH PROBABLY SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW.  WILL KEEP CLIMATOLOGICAL SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS EITHER
WITH CLIMATOLOGY THE WAY TO GO.
KT
.PUB...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   co
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
CURRENT WX...
LATEST STREAMLINE ANALYSIS FROM RUC40 PLACES THE MEAN H100-H50
BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE SRN CWA...WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM KSUA
TO KFMY.  AXIS IS ALSO CLEARLY DEPICTED IN CURRENT STORM MOTION...
RW/TRW OVER THE NRN CWA IS DRIFTING NE...WHILE RW/TRW OVER THE SRN
CWA IS DRIFTING N.  ECSB SHOWING UP ON VIS SAT IMAGERY S OF THE
CAPE...WHILE CONVECTION AND CI DEBRIS N OF THE CAPE IS HAMPERING ITS
DEVELOPMENT.  NEITHER THE E/WCSB ARE MAKING RAPID PROGRESS INLAND.
FURTHER N...SFC-H50 S/WV EXTENDS FROM THE NE U.S. TO THE MS VALLEY.
A STRONG CONTINENTAL HI OVER THE NRN PLAINS TRAILS THE S/WV...WITH A
+100KT H25 JET MAX IS RIDING IN TANDEM.
FCST DISC...
RW/TRW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS...DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION.  DENSE CI/CS DEBRIS OVER THE NRN AND
SRN CWA FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL SUPRESS EVENING PRECIP IN THOSE
AREAS.  DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE RW/TRW COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  ALSO
POSSIBLE IS THAT THE CWA IS ALSO IN THE WRN FLANK OF A TUTT TROF
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHERE UPR
LVL SUPRESSION TENDS TO PREVAIL. MAY ONLY NEED 20 POPS THIS
EVENING...PROBABLY NO HIGHER THAN 30.
ON WED...THE CONTINENTAL HI OVER THE NRN PLAINS...AIDED BY THE
STRONG NRN JET...WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND/SRN CANADA BY DAYBREAK.
THIS IN TURN WILL PUSH THE S/WV TROF AXIS OVER THE NE U.S. INTO THE
MID ATLC/LWR MS VALLEY.  NEITHER AVN OR ETA INDICATES THE TROF WILL
BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT IT WILL BE EXTENSIVE...COVERING A LARGE
PORTION OF THE SE U.S.  THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING ANY FARTHER N FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION.
WHILE THE MID ATLC TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...A ZONAL H25-H20 JET
WILL MAINTAIN PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN U.S.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF S/WV TROFS
ACROSS THE U.S...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE MID ATLC TROF.  AS A
RESULT...THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DRIFT ANY FARTHER N THAN
KTPA/KXMR.  THIS POSITION TENDS TO FAVOR THE NRN CWA FOR DIURNAL
POPS...WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THAT AREA.
MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FCST.  SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD WILL
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 10-15KT SRLY SFC WINDS.  AS THE
DURATION OF THE SRLY WINDS INCREASES...SEAS WILL REACH A FULLY
DEVELOPED 4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE NRN WATERS BY 12Z THU.  DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SLOWER OVER THE SRN WATERS DUE TO THE SHADOW EFFECT OF THE
BAHAMAS...BUT EVENTUALLY WILL REACH 4FT AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB TT 074/090 075/090 074 363
MCO TT 074/092 073/092 074 263
MLB TT 075/090 076/090 076 252   81
.MLB...NONE.
PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
...FORECAST ISSUES...
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM
ALONG WITH HI TEMPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED ARE A LITTLE CHALLENGING AS WELL.
...MODELS/ZFP...
H5 SYNOPTIC CHART THIS MORNING SHOW A LARGE TROF FROM CENTRAL CANADA
DOWN THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH A SECONDARY WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US...LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WAS SEEN AS WELL.
FORECAST MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PUSHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE REGION OR JUST PLAIN OUT DISSOLVING IT WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  CURRENT RADAR PICS SHOWING AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER IN THE SDF-FFT-LEX AREA.  OUT AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP WITH THE
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.  OVERALL...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED THE
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ORIGINALLY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WE
APPROACH MAXIMUM HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NEAR 70 ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.  ON WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN ENDING PRECIP FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.  EXPECT A LOT OF CLOUDS AROUND TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAY.  LOOKING FOR HIGHS OF
83 TO 88 ACROSS THE AREA.  PLAN ON MENTIONING SOME FOG FOR WED
NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR A LITTLE MORE BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF H5 WAVES ARE FORECAST TO SCOOT
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...PLAN ON KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN FOR THU/FRI...MAINLY FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.  FWC/MAV/MET NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND
PLAN ON USING A BLEND.
...EXTENDED...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAIRLY AMPLIFIED IN THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED BUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  SEVERAL H5 WAVE ARE FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED.  THE FIRST OF THESE
WAVES PASSES THROUGH LATE FRI AND EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE SECOND
ONE PASSING BY SAT NITE AND THEN THE FINAL ONE PASSING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.  WITH THE WAVES PASSING BY AND GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE EXPECT CONVECTION TO POP UP DURING THE AFTERNOONS...MAINLY
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE HELD TO A MINIMUM.
THUS...PLAN ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY AT THIS POINT.  NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PACKAGE.  LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 70 AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
...GRIDS...
FORECAST DATABASE IS GOOD SHAPE.  DID THE USUAL RE-LOAD OF 1HR T/TD
AND WINDS FROM THE MESO ETA FOR THE 1ST 48 HOURS.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE REST OF THE ELEMENTS WERE DONE.
...PRELIM NUMBERS...
LOZ 69/84 66/85 5423
JKL 67/83 66/85 5423
.JKL...NONE
JARVIS
=====================================================================
1110 AM MORNING DISCUSSION...
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER EASTERN KY REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE
LIKE YESTERDAY...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER IS A LITTLE HIGHER...IN THE
1.7 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS THAT A VORT
MAX...SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY NOW...MOVES OVER
NORTHEAST KY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS
AFTERNOON MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT WE HESITATE
TO LOWER THE 60 POP WE HAVE GOING. THE REMARK ON HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
TUNED DOWN A BIT TO SHOW ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS BASICALLY SUPPORT SLOW MOVING PULSE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP A MID-LEVEL
ROTATION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS.
SCHAUB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A COLD
FRONT SAGGING INTO OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. ON
SATELLITE...THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE FRONT ARE
WEAKENING AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH
JUST SOME LEFT OVER CLOUDS FROM THE EVENING CONVECTION OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...LOCALLY IT IS NOW QUIET BUT FURTHER WEST A
COUPLE OF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG OUT
FLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES BY
WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE WESTERLIES TODAY LEAVING BEHIND PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY THE END
OF THE WEEK THE AVN FEATURES A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION
48 HOURS AGO FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK. THIS TOO LIFTS OUT DURING THE
WEEKEND RETURNING MORE ZONAL FLOW TO THE AREA.
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWS APPROACH 2 INCHES.
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW
MOVING THUNDERSTORM OR COMPLEX OF SUCH. THOUGH...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE LACKING THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE WESTERLIES. IN THIS AIRMASS
NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR SOAKING RAINS. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT NEVER FULLY CLEARS THE
AREA...JUST WASHING OUT TO OUR SOUTH. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
WILL GIVE THE SFC PATTERN AN INVERTED TROUGH LOOK THURSDAY MAKING
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH
...BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. QUIETER
WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO FOLLOW...BUT AN IMPULSE IN THE NOW ZONAL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AS WELL. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK A BIT COOLER THAN THOSE OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
MANY DIFFERENCES IN MOS TEMPS AND POPS BETWEEN THE AVN AND NGM.
PICKED AND CHOSE ACCORDING TO THE ABOVE SCENARIO. PREFER WARMER NGM
TEMPS WEDNESDAY...BUT HIGHER MAV POPS.
AS FOR GFE/IFPS...LOADED AND TWEAKED THE MESOETA/S WINDS AND TEMPS
THROUGH 60 HOURS...HAD TO ADJUST SOME AREAS OF MODELED RAIN COOLED
MAXES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. REST OF GRIDS INHERITED WERE HIGH QUALITY
...JUST MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NEW MODELS AND NDFD BLEND.
WORK ZONES AVAILABLE UNDER THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL BEFORE TOO
LONG.
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS:
LOZ TE 088/068 083/065 084 65423
JKL TB 086/066 085/066 083 64312
.JKL...NONE
GREIF
</PRE></TT></td>   ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION... CORRECTED FOR SEVERAL TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2002
LIGHT AND ERRATIC WINDS HAVE MADE IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
BEST LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW CELLS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATEST RUC SHOWS THIS TO BE FAVORED AREA.  WILL  KEEP IN CHANCE
POPS FOR TONIGHT SE 1/3 AND SLIGHT CHANCE CENTRAL SECTIONS.  OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING MAY HELP FOCUS MORE CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH.  WILL GO SIMILAR TO CURRENT
FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS FA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO RIDE OVER TOP OF CENTRAL
ROCKIES RIDGE.  FIRST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY NORTH AND
EAST OF AREA.  SECOND IS FORECAST BY AVN TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
CO AND WY AND WILL HAVE STRONG ENOUGH FLOW THAT STORMS AND CLOUDS
MAY AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST...FRI-TUES...MRF LOOKS MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF.
OVERALL...GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MRF DOES NOT BUILD WESTERN RIDGE BUT NOW PREDICTS BY MON/TUES
A WEAKNESS IN 5H RIDGE OR TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS. WILL REMOVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OVER WEEKEND AND GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY WEST FOR MONDAY AND ALL AREAS TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.
FCSTID = 6
OKC  71 92 71 95 /  20 10 10 00
HBR  71 96 71 97 /  20 10 10 00
SPS  73 97 73 100 /  30 20 20 00
GAG  67 93 67 97 /  10 10 10 00
PNC  69 90 71 95 /  10 10 10 20
DUA  72 94 72 96 /  40 20 20 00
.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   ok