####018002360####
FXUS63 KTOP 140925
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURED A WESTERLY 100KT 
UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WAS 
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH/EAST THROUGH THE CWA...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
AREA LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND CONTINUE THE WEAK CAA...WITH 
AFTERNOON READINGS REACHING THE LOWER 30S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S 
FAR SOUTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CWA 
TONIGHT...AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE NOTED BUT DRY AIR 
WITHIN THE H8-SFC LAYER SHOULD PROHIBIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. 

A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA...RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY 
MONDAY MORNING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY 
SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL 
REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 
50S TO NEAR 60. WITH THE BREEZY SFC FLOW...WARM TEMPERATURES AND 
CRITICAL FUELS...A HIGH FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...ALBEIT NOT EXPECTED NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA WITH 
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR ~30% OR GREATER RH. A SFC LOW 
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING DRAGGING A WEAK PACIFIC 
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE NEAR-SFC LIFT IN ADDITION TO 
GOOD UPPER SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR 
RAIN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH. BEST 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM LOOK TO BE JUST NORTH 
OF THE CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FAR EXTENDED.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

STRATUS CLEARING THE TOP/FOE TERMINALS AT THIS WRITING...ALLOWING
VFR CONDITIONS TO RULE THE TAFS. DRYING LOW LAYERS SHOULD KEEP
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS LIMITED TO MID/HIGH LAYER WITH THE NEXT WEAK
UPPER TROF. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST. 

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



####018001597####
FXCA62 TJSJ 140925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SAT FEB 14 2009


.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER AND SATELLITES IMAGES SHOWED A LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DRY AND STABLE AIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD
AND SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA AND ALL LOCAL TAF SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL IMPACT IS
FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY...A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT TO LOCAL WATERS. A BIGGER SWELL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO
INCREASE ON TUESDAY...GENERATING CONFUSE SEAS THROUGH AT THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  72  84  72 /  20  20  20  10 
STT  83  71  83  71 /  20  20  20  10 

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

93/10/


####018003832####
FXUS63 KBIS 140927
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
OUR UPPER AIR FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MAINLY
WESTERLY LATER TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW IS A REFLECTION OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
CONSOLIDATING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSH
SOUTH AGAIN AS LOWERING HEIGHTS BEGIN TO IMPINGE OVER THE CWA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AND 
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY PAST 24HRS STRETCHING FROM ALBERTA TO
SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FREEZING FOG
STRETCHING FROM WILLISTON TO DICKINSON AND SOUTH INTO BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING
AND PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS REFLECTED THIS TREND WELL. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MONTANA WHICH SNAKED INTO 
WYOMING AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL 
GRADUALLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE LEADING 
EDGE OF A WARM FRONT...BRINGING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW 
FIRST OVER OUR SOUTHWEST CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY 
NIGHT.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM OREGON SOUTHEAST INTO NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL ADVANCE EAST TODAY AND REACH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN DOING SO A SFC LOW AND AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC
ZONE/WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. PER A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL AID IN INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FIELD
FROM SLIGHT CHC TO CHANCE. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LIFT/PRECIP OVER
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
OVER OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CWA. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE
TWO SOLUTIONS AND INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHC TONIGHT INTO THE
CHC CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND SFC LOW BOTH MIGRATE EAST ON MONDAY
POPS WILL DECREASE AGAIN INTO THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY. WILL SEE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS ENTIRE EVENT. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN 
INCREASE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION 
REACHING ITS PEAK OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
REMNANTS OF REX BLOCK OFF THE WEST COAST WILL LEAVE GENERALLY LOWER 
H500 HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE EXTENDED PD. SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE 
FOCUSED ON THIS PERIOD FOR SNOW. AFTER THIS...COOLER TEMPERATURES 
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HAVE LOWERED 
TEMPERATURES WED AND THURS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREV FCST.  

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL 
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ISN...MOT...BIS...AND JMS TODAY. TO THE
SOUTHWEST...DIK HAS HAD DENSE FOG SINCE 05Z. I WILL KEEP DENSE FOG 
IN DIK FOR THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD BECAUSE THERE APPEARS NOTHING TO 
MOVE THIS OUT. I THINK CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR CIGS AFTER 
12-14Z.  


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KS/WAA







####018004338####
FXUS63 KDVN 140929
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVE THAT BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA 
YESTERDAY HAS NOW MOVED EAST LEAVING CHILLY AIR IN IT/S WAKE. HIGH 
PRESSURE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 
SLOW WARMING TREND. NEXT POTENT STORM SYSTEM SEEN ON SATELLITE OUT 
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ABOUT 1000 MILES NW OF KLAX. THIS STORM TO 
IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT 
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE 
CYCLONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE THAN 
EXPECTED BROUGHT YESTERDAY/S HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL. A BAND OF 
3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL ROUGHLY FROM THE MARENGO/VINTON AREAS 
THROUGH CEDAR RAPIDS TO THE DUBUQUE/FREEPORT AREAS. THIS SNOW DEPTH 
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES 
COLDER THAN SURROUNDING AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THIS SNOW BAND 
WILL FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S WITH REMAINDER OF THE CWA 
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE 
TODAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -10C TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT 
SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE SNOW BAND WITH TEENS MOST 
LOCATIONS WITH AROUND 20 IN OUR SE CWA. HOWEVER...THESE READINGS 
COULD END UP SOMEWHAT LOWER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER REMAINS.

PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE DVN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BACK 
EDGE FROM ABOUT KDSM-KRST WITH AWIPS SPEED TOOL INDICATING CLOUDS 
MOVING SE AT 15 KNOTS. CLOUDS ERODING FROM THE NW AS DRIER AIR 
FILTERING SE OUT OF MN AND DAKOTAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF 
THE DAKOTAS. CLEARING LINE SHOULD REACH EASTERN IA LATER THIS 
MORNING AND IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 

..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL INITIALLY BE QUIET AND COOL AS WE WAIT FOR THE 
NEXT STRONG WAVE TO MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS 
BY TUESDAY. THE OVER ALL FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY HAS BEEN 
CHANGED LITTLE...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY LOWERING HIGHS NORTHWEST SUNDAY 
AND LOWS MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH 
OF REMAINING SNOW PACK.  AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S 
SUNDAY...WE SHOULD DROP UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND PARLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES TO 10 TO 15 OVER SNOW COVER...AND 15 TO 20 ELSEWHERE.  MONDAY 
WILL SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND 
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WILL 
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY...LIKELY TOO LATER TO GAIN HIGHS MUCH 
WARMER THAN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. 
MONDAY NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS 
UP IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. 

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS IN BRINGING A STRONG UPPER WAVE AND 
SURFACE LOW OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE ARE ON TARGET FOR A GOOD 
SHOT OF PCPN...LIKELY MAINLY RAIN SOUTH...AND SNOW OR RAIN SNOW MIX 
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM 
PASSES EAST. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TIGHTLY FOCUSED...AND ANY TREND 
NORTH OR SOUTH MAY CAUSE PCPN TYPES AND AMOUNTS TO CHANGE 
SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER...WITH 2 DAYS MODELS RUNS RUNNING THE LOW 
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN MISSOURI...WE ARE GAINING CONFIDENCE 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE DVN CWA WITH EITHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN 
OR A COMBINATION THAT COULD INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AS WELL.
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAIDER OF THE PERIOD IS 
TRENDING COLDER ON THE ECMWF...AND MAY REQUIRE ADDING POPS FOR LIGHT 
SNOW OR FLURRIES.
...ERVIN...

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. CLEARING LINE COMING 
FROM THE NW SHOULD REACH KCID/KDBQ ABOUT 16Z...KMLI/KBRL ABOUT 18Z. 
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

HAASE/ERVIN