AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
100 PM PST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS             
AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF             
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...EXPECT PERIODS OF                
RAIN...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WET PATTERN WILL                    
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ALL WINTER PRODUCTS AND ZONES THIS MORNING TO             
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST DATA. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BEST HANDLED BY GFS               
GUIDANCE. BUT THIS...ALONG WITH ALL OTHER GUIDANCE AND                          
OBSERVATIONS...SUPPORTS HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
EVENING OVER WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND MENDOCINO COUNTY. SPOTTER            
REPORTS IN TRINITY COUNTY INDICATE SNOW LEVEL RISING SLOWLY FROM                
AROUND 2K FEET...AND SNOW LEVELS OVER MOST OF INTERIOR MENDOCINON               
AND NORTHCOAST INTERIOR AROUND 4K FT AND RISING. WITH SURFACE LOW               
STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTH END OF ZONE 1...HAVE                    
RE-ISSUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS                    
NORTHCOAST INTERIOR. VERIFICATION WILL PROBABLY BE SPOTTY. BUT AN               
ADVISORY SEEMS PRUDENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW BEING A BIT              
LOWER THAN FORECAST...OR FARTHER NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE ETA                  
GROUP. NO UPDATES MADE BEYOND TODAY AND THIS EVENING PERIOD.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW              
FOR THE NORTH COAST INTERIOR AND UPPER TRINITY...AND A SNOW ADVISORY            
FOR THE MENDOCINO INTERIOR. A STRONG AND WET COLD FRONT WILL MOVE               
ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS             
WILL BE 3000 TO 4000 FEET.                                                      
USED THE GFS AS GUIDANCE AS THE ETA MODEL HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL               
WITH THE SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM.                                              
A LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE            
ONSHORE NEAR CRESCENT CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRING THE COLD                 
FRONT WITH IT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO              
AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOVE 3500                 
FEET..EXPECTING 9 TO 12 INCHES. THESE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE FURTHER             
SOUTH...SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6             
INCHES ABOVE 3500 FEET. FOR TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN OR            
SNOW AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION.  WEDNESDAY THE                
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING RAIN. THE SNOW               
LEVELS IN NORTHERN DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL NE NEAR 5000                           
FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6000 FEET IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.               
THIS WARMING WILL MELT MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED FROM THE               
PREVIOUS STORM..ADDING TO THE RUNOFF IN THE WATERSHEDS...AS THE                 
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY WET. IT                 
APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCE THAT WAS                   
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID LATITUDES FROM THE RECENT WESTERN PACIFIC                
TYPHOON.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING POST             
FRONTAL SHOWERS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS INTO                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH. THIS                
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF KLAMATH. SUNDAY THE                
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
MARINE/WIND DISCUSSION...                                                       
VERY TRICKY WIND FORECASTS THIS MORNING.  GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN THE               
MODEL OF CHOICE LATELY, HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE LOW                 
PROGGED FOR ARRIVAL THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE TRACK OVER THE ORCA             
BORDER...AND AT THIS TIME THE 06Z GFS DEPICTS THIS LOW AT 994MB.                
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE THE UPPER LOW IS                 
MOVING VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COAST AND MAY BE A GOOD 3-4 HOURS                
FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS INDICATES.  06Z ETA 12 CARRIES A COMPLETELY             
DIFFERENT SOLUTION SHOWING A 987MB LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH COAST              
OF OREGON WHILE THE RUC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS. PHONE                      
COORDINATION WITH MFR LEAD TO GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE                  
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS LOW WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THE COAST              
AND COASTAL INLAND AREAS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2 AND             
3...AND GALE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UPPER TRINITY RIVER.                                       
WIND ADVISORY FOR REDWOOD COAST...NORTH COAST INTERIOR...AND                    
MENDOCINO COAST.                                                                
GALE WARNING AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO PT. ARENA               
OUT 60NM                                                                        
$$                                                                              
TJADEN/KENNEDY/TONKIN                                                           
PLEASE VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA (ALL LOWER CASE)                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
400 AM PST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THIS             
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY WITH                
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN LAND...TONIGHT...EXPECT                  
PERIODS OF RAIN...AND SNOW AT THOSE LOCATIONS ABOVE THIRTY FIVE                 
HUNDRED FEET. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST. THIS WET               
AND COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUALLY                 
INCREASING SNOW LEVELS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW FOR THE               
NORTH COAST INTERIOR AND UPPER TRINITY...AND A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE            
MENDOCINO INTERIOR. A STRONG AND WET COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS                
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE            
3000 TO 4000 FEET.                                                              
USED THE GFS AS GUIDANCE AS THE ETA MODEL HAS NOT BEEN DOING WELL               
WITH THE SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEM.                                              
A LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE            
ONSHORE NEAR CRESCENT CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRING THE COLD                 
FRONT WITH IT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO              
AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW FALL IS POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOVE 3500                 
FEET..EXPECTING 9 TO 12 INCHES. THESE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE FURTHER             
SOUTH...SO HAVE ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6             
INCHES ABOVE 3500 FEET. FOR TUESDAY THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN OR            
SNOW AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION.  WEDNESDAY THE                
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION BRINGING RAIN. THE SNOW               
LEVELS IN NORTHERN DEL NORTE COUNTY WILL NE NEAR 5000                           
FEET...INCREASING TO NEAR 6000 FEET IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY.               
THIS WARMING WILL MELT MUCH OF THE SNOW THAT ACCUMULATED FROM THE               
PREVIOUS STORM..ADDING TO THE RUNOFF IN THE WATERSHEDS...AS THE                 
MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY WET. IT                 
APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCE THAT WAS                   
ENTRAINED INTO THE MID LATITUDES FROM THE RECENT WESTERN PACIFIC                
TYPHOON.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LINGERING POST             
FRONTAL SHOWERS. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RIDGING BUILDS INTO                    
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH. THIS                
WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF KLAMATH. SUNDAY THE                
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST                         
CALIFORNIA.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
MARINE/WIND DISCUSSION...                                                       
VERY TRICKY WIND FORECASTS THIS MORNING.  GFS, WHICH HAS BEEN THE               
MODEL OF CHOICE LATELY, HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE LOW                 
PROGGED FOR ARRIVAL THIS AFTERNOON AND KEPT THE TRACK OVER THE ORCA             
BORDER...AND AT THIS TIME THE 06Z GFS DEPICTS THIS LOW AT 994MB.                
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE THE UPPER LOW IS                 
MOVING VERY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE COAST AND MAY BE A GOOD 3-4 HOURS                
FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS INDICATES.  06Z ETA 12 CARRIES A COMPLETELY             
DIFFERENT SOLUTION SHOWING A 987MB LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH COAST              
OF OREGON WHILE THE RUC IS MORE INLINE WITH THE GFS. PHONE                      
COORDINATION WITH MFR LEAD TO GOING WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE                  
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS LOW WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THE COAST              
AND COASTAL INLAND AREAS WARRANTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2 AND             
3...AND GALE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH COAST INTERIOR AND UPPER TRINITY RIVER.              
SNOW ADVISORY FOR MENDOCINO INTERIOR.                                           
WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH COAST INTERIOR AND MENDOCINO COAST.                     
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WIND PT ST                  
GEORGE TO CAPE MENDOCINO OUT 60 NM.                                             
GALE WARNING AND HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING CAPE MENDOCINO TO PT. ARENA             
OUT 60NM                                                                        
$$                                                                              
KENNEDY/TONKIN                                                                  
PLEASE VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA (ALL LOWER CASE)                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
250 PM EST MON DEC  6 2004                                                      
...MED RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING A TREND TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN            
NEXT WEEK...                                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY...A FEW LUMPS OF DIURNAL CU OVER THE ERN/SRN PENINSULA.               
ALSO...CI DEBRIS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE THANKS TO A LARGE AREA              
OF CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY.  OTHER THAN THAT...            
LCL AIRMASS IS QUIET AND DRY.  SERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING SFC DEWPOINTS            
IN THE U50S/M60S...BUT RUC40 ANALYSIS INDICATES THE H100-H50 MEAN RH            
VALUES REMAIN AOB 70%.                                                          
TONIGHT...ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE E FL PENINSULA AS THE            
RIDGE SFC-H50 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE              
LCL WX PATTERN.  THE SFC-H70 LYR IS CAPPED AND TOO DRY TO SUPPORT               
CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT SRLY FLOW...CI                  
DEBRIS AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A GOOD 10F              
DEG ABV CLIMO.                                                                  
TUE-THU...THE SRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW                
WILL RIDE THE STRONG ST JET NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT                
LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT. WEAK SFC FRONT WHICH HAD PREV BEEN PROGGED TO              
MOVE INTO FL AND STALL EARLY WED NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STALL NORTH            
OF THE STATE BY 12Z WED. WEAK H50 TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE             
SRN PLAINS WED-THU WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER FL/ADJACENT SW ATLC             
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN/SERN STATES TO                
STRENGTHEN...LEADING TO CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE WX WITH WARM TEMPS            
AVGING A GOOD 10F ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY DEC.                                    
FRI-MON...BIG PICTURE - EERILY GOOD AGREEMENT BTWN THE 06/00Z ECM               
AND 06/06Z RUNS OF THE GFS/DGEX AT BOTH THE SFC AND H50 THRU H168               
SHOWING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM TRENDING TWD AMPLIFICATION              
(I.E STRONGER POS PHASE OF PNA /PACIFIC-NOAM/ TELECONNECTION). EVEN             
THOUGH H50 HEIGHTS SLOWLY FALL OVER THE WRN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE              
WEAKENING SOME AND A CUTOFF LOW MOVING TWD THE PAC NW...H50 HEIGHTS             
ACTUALLY RISE 30-40M ON AVERAGE OVER A LARGE PART OF WRN CANADA...              
WHICH RESULTS IN MORE MERIDIONAL (N TO S) INTO THE CTRL CONUS. THIS             
WOULD PORTEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SHOT FOR THE SERN CONUS/FL IN             
THE DAY 7-10 PERIOD. SHOULD THE PATTERN LOCK IN FOR A TIME...IT                 
COULD SPELL A CHILLY LATTER HALF OF DEC.                                        
DETAILS - SFC/DLM RIDGE OVER FL/ADJACENT ATLC THU WILL BEGIN TO                 
WEAKEN AND RETREAT EWD THU NIGHT THRU FRI. SRN PLAIN SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT AS SIGNIFICANT ENERGY DIVES SEWD INTO THE                 
NRN STREAM...CARVING OUT A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE                
ERN CONUS. ASCD CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT                
LAKES/NERN CONUS FRI-SAT AND DRIVES A COLD FRON THRU FL FRI NIGHT               
EARLY SAT. PREFRONTAL MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE BAND OF              
SHRA LATE FRI-FRI NIGHT AND PSBLY LINGER NEAR LAKE OKEE FOR AN HR               
OR SO EARLY SAT MORNING. BASED UPON  WHAT HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH                  
FROPAS THUS FAR...NOT SOLD THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TS.            
ALSO...TIMING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO STRADDLING 00Z SAT SO THAT A 3-6HR             
CHG IN ONSET OF PRECIP COULD MAKE 12HR POPS MUCH HIGHER OR LOWER                
NORTH AND/OR SOUTH DURING THOSE TWO PERIODS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLC THRU WED. S-SW               
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EWD WITH SCEC CONDS                   
DEVELOPING EARLY SAT. SCA WINDS/SEAS BEHIND THE FROPA SAT NIGHT-SUN             
MORNING...WITH BRIEF SURGE OF SEAS BUILDING TO 8FT OR SO IN THE GULF            
STREAM IN STRONG NNW-N FLOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  63  82  63  81 /   0   0   0  10                                           
MCO  63  83  63  84 /   0   0   0  10                                           
MLB  66  82  66  82 /   0   0   0  10                                           
VRB  66  82  64  83 /   0   0   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAGAW                                                             
LONG TERM...CRISTALDI                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
540 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM REMAINS QUITE UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST            
TWO SYSTEMS SLATED TO AFFECT THE SE U.S. WITH STRONG SOUTHERN                   
STREAM. EACH SYSTEM HAS LIMITED POTENTIAL TO BRING TSRA TO THE                  
CWA...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR TSRA LATE THU-EARLY FRI. A BIGGER                
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS THE NW...LEADING            
TO RIVER FLOOD THREAT. ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN EXITING THE AREA THIS            
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST AREA OF RAIN MOVING FURTHER NORTH INTO TN.                
WEAK WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...NORTH                        
CENTRAL...AND EAST CENTRAL...AND WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE WITH LOW SUN             
ANGLE KEEPING CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. FURTHER                   
SOUTH...UPPER RIDGE OVER FL HAS AMPLIFIED AND PUT A CAP ON SHRA                 
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF I-20. NEXT PROBLEM IS DENSE FOG.                           
OVERNIGHT...WARM/DRY SECTOR CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...BUT              
EXPECT WEAK WEDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE NE/E. WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES              
OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BOUNDED BY FFC-ATL-AHN.            
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER THIS SITUATION AS WELL.               
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND GOOD INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN                      
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH                         
OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA AROUND                  
SUNRISE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHRINK IN AERIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY              
AS IT MOVES SE THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUE. ISOLD TSRA CAN BE            
EXPECTED...BUT THE THREAT GREATLY DIMINISHES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.             
LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA FOR WED...BUT IT              
WILL BE VERY BRIEF.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE...POTENTIALLY TO A                 
PACIFIC...NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION...IS FORTHCOMING...WHICH                
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN U.S...INCLUDING              
THE SE...BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT               
THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY LONG LIVED AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES                
DIVING SOUTH FROM ALBERTA KEEP A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVED OUT              
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE TRANSITION                
FROM THE CURRENT PATTERN TO THE PNA PATTERN APPEARS TO FEATURE A                
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SHRA AND SOME TSRA. AT LEAST TWO               
SHORT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI.                        
UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS             
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY                  
MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. EACH RUN OF THE MODELS INDICATES AN                  
INCREASING THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE THU-FRI PERIOD...WHICH IS                 
CONSISTENT WITH A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE. UNTIL LATE IN THE                       
WEEK...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE COOLING                
TREND WILL COMMENCE FRI NIGHT...THEN OVERALL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY               
COLDER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL HIGHS DROP INTO THE 40S AND                
LOWS FALL IN THE 20S BY DAY 7 AND 8.                                            
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST LAST              
NIGHT AND RAIN PERSISTS IN THOSE AREAS TODAY. SEVERAL CREEKS AND                
RIVERS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NEAR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN             
WILL SIMPLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION. PLAN TO ISSUE AN FFA FOR THE               
FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 18Z TUE...MAINLY FOR              
CREEK...STREAM...AND RIVER FLOODING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IN-SITU WEDGE NOW LIES FROM NEAR KCCO TO             
20NM S OF KAHN. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL              
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH TONIGHT...                
HOWEVER MODELS (EVEN 18Z ETA12) DOING POORLY WITH THIS FEATURE.                 
PREFER RUC MODEL BUT MAY HAVE TO SLOW DOWN NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF             
WARM FRONT AND IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. FOR KATL BELIEVE SOUTHEAST                 
WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 5Z. NEW 18Z MAV GUIDANCE              
HAS WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING BUT KEEPS CIGS/VSBYS DOWN TO THE FLOOR              
AT KATL. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA     50 65 46 64 / 40 60 00 10                                           
ATHENS      49 63 48 64 / 10 60 00 10                                           
GAINESVILLE 47 63 46 62 / 40 60 00 10                                           
ROME        50 63 43 65 / 90 60 00 10                                           
COLUMBUS    54 74 51 71 / 10 40 00 10                                           
MACON       52 75 52 69 / 10 40 00 10                                           
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH               
1 PM EST TUE.                                                                   
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST...NORTH CENTRAL...AND EAST CENTRAL             
AREAS THROUGH 6 AM EST.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAB/SNELSON                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1215 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO REMOVE MORNING FOG AND TO ELEVATE                 
HIGHS ACROSS SE IL. ALSO REFINED RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I-72 TO                  
SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A CLOUDY AND MILD                  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S FROM PEORIA AND                   
BLOOMINGTON NORTH TO 60 TO 65 DEGREES ACROSS SE IL.                             
NOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER MT WITH A                   
WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA AND FAR NORTHERN IL/IN. ANOTHER LOW                 
PRESSURE WAS GETTING ORGANIZED OVER THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE                
WITH PRESSURE DOWN TO 1004 MB. ITS WARM FRONT WAS OVER CENTRAL                  
PARTS OF AR/TN. CENTRAL AND SE IL IN A MILD/MOIST SOUTH FLOW WITH               
CLOUDY SKIES. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY                 
RISING THIS MORNING. TEMPS RANGE FROM 50 TO 57 DEGREES WITH THE                 
MILDEST READINGS OVER SE IL AT LAWRENCEVILLE AND COOLEST NW IL AT               
GALESBURG. HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S.                                     
RUC AND ETA KEEP CENTRAL/SE IL DRY THROUGH 03Z/9 PM WITH QPF SW OF              
AREA. BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-72                
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING THEN               
AND ATMOSHPERE SO MOIST ALREADY. COULD GET A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE              
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIN SPOTS IN THE OVERCAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH              
AND LIKED WARMER ETA HIGHS 55 NORTH AT GALESBURG AND CLOSE TO 65 AT             
LAWRENCEVILLE. LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE TOWARD THE OZARKS THIS EVENING              
AND LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH TOWARD I-72 BY MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES               
INCREASE THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH WITH NEAR 100% CHANCES OF RAIN             
OVERNIGHT AND COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS            
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL IL BY DAWN TUE. SPC LIFTED SLIGHT               
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM               
I-70 NORTH TOWARD CHARLESTON/MATTOON AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS              
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM 10 PM TO 4 AM. MODERATE RISK STILL              
JUST SOUTH OF KY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WARM FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH IL AREA THIS                       
MORNING...06Z SFC MAP HAD FRONT ROUGHLY FROM KUIN TO KMTO. PLENTY OF            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND WARM FRONT...SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO STICK                
AROUND TODAY...AND KEPT THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG. NEXT STORM SYSTEM W         
OF SRN CAL...WITH 50H LOW JUST W OF SAN DIEGO AT 00Z.                           
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
LOW PRESSURE OVER SW US...WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE AREA TODAY. WARM AND            
MOIST AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY...WITH 60 DEW PTS                 
HITTING THE MO BOOTHEEL. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL NUDGE                
THIS AIRMASS CLOSER TO THE AREA TODAY. ETA TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTING             
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AS HIGHS TODAY...HOWEVER THINK THEY ARE A LITTLE            
WARM DUE TO THE LACK OF SUN TODAY. OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE COOLER WITH             
LOWER 60S SE AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. WL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. THE             
ETA AND GFS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS INTO IL                   
TONIGHT. ETA IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE SFC LOW THAN              
THE GFS...AND THE ETA IS CONSISTENT WITH PREV MODEL RUNS IN TRACKING            
LOW OVER CENT IL. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS A MORE BROAD AREA OF            
SFC LOW PRESSURE...WITH QPF MAX NR THE OH RVR. WL LEAN MORE TOWARD              
THE ETA SOLUTION. WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S AND SOME CAPE            
ON THE ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WL MENTION                
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN ALL BUT THE NW TONIGHT. THE SPC DY1                 
OUTLOOK CLIPS THE SE PORTION OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL               
MOVE OUT RATHER QUICKLY TUE...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN                  
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
NEXT STORM STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THU AND FRI. THE UKMET AND GFS              
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING...ALTHOUGH GFS A TAD QUICKER.                     
TEMPERATURE-WISE...STILL GOING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE...WITH A           
SLOW COOLING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/KELLY                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
100 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF FRONT/WINDSHIFT SHIFTING NORTH                
ACROSS CWA. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING             
IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NEXT               
STRONG UPPER TROF SFC LOW TO BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT            
WITH RAIN AND IFR CIGS MOVING IN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE            
FIRST HALF OF TUE. SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH THUNDER             
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA BUT BEST CHC                   
APPEARS TO BE KFWA AND ADDED TEMPO THERE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE             
AHEAD OF SYSTEM TONIGHT. APPEARS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND SFC              
LOW WILL WAIT UNTIL NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD AND DID NOT INCLUDE IN               
THIS TAF PACKAGE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING TO REMOVE RAIN FROM NORTHEAST CWA AND                 
INCLUDE DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS CWA INTO MID MORNING THEN CLOUDY                 
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED              
ON CURRENT READINGS AND TEMPS UPSTREAM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
ISSUES AGAIN WITH MODEL PREFERENCE. OPERATIONAL GFS 24 HOURS AGO HAD            
TRENDED IN RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NOW TOO FAR SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE               
LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY. ETA WAS THE OUTLIER 24 HOURS AGO AND NOW APPEARS            
TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN AZ. ETA HARD            
TO BEAT WITH NGM/20KM DEV RUC AGREEMENT AND EVEN SEVERAL GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANING FURTHER NORTHWEST AS WELL. ECMWF/UKMET IN              
BETWEEN BUT AT LEAST TRACKING SURFACE LOW THROUGH FORECAST AREA.                
FIRST ISSUE WITH RISING TEMPS PROBABLE FOR FIRST TWO FORECAST                   
PERIODS. ETA LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT WAA               
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM 2-4C TO LOWER             
TEENS BY 12Z TUE. FIRST AREA OF RAIN/BEST LIFT LIFTING NORTHEAST                
THROUGH THIS MORNING MAY HAVE TO HANG ONTO SOME HIGHER POPS                     
NORTHEAST THIS AM...THEN WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR            
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...COULD BE SOME                  
SPOTTY TRACE DZ THOUGH WITH STRATUS LATE MORNING AND THEN CIGS                  
LOWERING AGAIN AFTER DARK...HOWEVER BUFKIT XSECTIONS SHOWING UVM IN             
MOIST LAYER LACKING. INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL BEYOND 06Z                  
TONIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LONG HOOKED HODOGRAPH               
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS GREATER THAN 50KTS...DEEP UVM AND                 
SHOWALTER NEAR 0C/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM WILL MENTION AT               
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LATE TONIGHT SOUTH AND EAST.                       
LONG TERM                                                                       
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE PROGRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW NOW DIGGING INTO               
THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND EJECT OUT             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND SPAWN LEE SIDE SURFACE                       
CYCLOGENESIS. SYSTEM WILL SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES            
BY 12Z TUES. ETA AND GFS HAVE RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE             
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE ETA FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER WHILE             
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. ETA HAS BEEN SUPERIOR THE PAST              
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. EACH ONE HAS COME             
OUT FURTHER NORTHWEST AND MORE WOUND UP THAN MODELS SUGGEST IN THE              
36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM                 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY 12Z THURS WITH ERRONEOUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED            
DYNAMICS DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST. WILL GO WITH THE                 
FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER ETA SOLUTION. WITH THE ETA IDEA...MAIN                
PUSH OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND 12Z TUE                
WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET BUILDING DRY SLOT IN BY MIDDAY. WILL             
FOLLOW LOWER ETA POPS WITH LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH...MAINLY               
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERNOON COULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY. 925MB                 
TEMPS SOAR TO +14C AT 12Z TUE EAST AND +10 NORTHWEST. EVEN MIXED                
DOWN MOIST ADIABATICALLY THIS SUPPORTS MID 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S             
SOUTHEAST. WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE YET...BUT PLAY AS UPPER            
50S SOUTHEAST TO LOW 50S NORTHWEST. THESE WILL BE MORNING HIGHS WITH            
STRONG CAA DROPPING TEMPS BY AFTERNOON.                                         
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THURSDAY. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES             
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES             
BY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TUE MORNING. ETA BUFKIT SHOWING VERY               
NICE ISSALOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLET OF -8MB/3HR TO +6MB/3HR THURSDAY             
MORNING. STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE             
ABLE TO MIX DOWN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FROM ALOFT WITH ETA BUFKIT                  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SHOWING 40-45KT GUST POTENTIAL. WILL RAMP             
WINDS UP IN GRIDS. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES WINDS COULD APPROACH                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR             
SW OVER THE NORTH WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING NEARBY. 850MB             
TEMPS -3C TO -5C RANGE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WED BRINING FAIR SKIES AND WAA               
ALREADY BEGINNING WITH MODERATING TEMPS.                                        
NEXT BIG TICKET ITEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL MEDIUM             
RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A FULL LATITUDE                  
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. THIS CAN BE TRACED BACK             
TO THE RECURVING OF TYPHOON NANMADOL OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC A FEW             
DAYS AGO. THIS RECURVING VERY OFTEN SIGNALS A DIGGING TROUGH INTO               
THE EASTERN CONUS ABOUT A WEEK LATER AS THE STRONG INFLUX OF ENERGY             
INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES CAUSES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. GFS                    
ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE PNA INDEX TRENDING STRONGLY POSITIVE BY LATE              
WEEK BUT ALSO SHOW THE NAO AND AO INDEX REMAINING POSITIVE OVER THE             
NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN            
US LATE WEEK. BUT WITH THE NAO AND AO REMAINING POSITIVE HIGH                   
LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL NOT SET UP AND ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED EAST                
COAST TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS               
DISPLACED VERY FAR NORTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER THE CANADIAN                  
ARCHIPELEGO NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INSTEAD OF OVER HUDSON BAY.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSIVE             
IN NATURE AND NOT REPRESENT A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT.                              
WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A TURN TOWARDS SIGNIFICANTLY               
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF INITIALLY RAIN THEN SNOW LATE            
WEEK AS TROUGH DIGS IN. MODELS SHOWING MUCH MORE SPREAD IN SURFACE              
SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WILL RETAIN CONTINUITY             
AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURS PM THROUGH FRI NGT. A CLIPPER WILL                
DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF                   
PRECIP. CURRENT GFS TRACKS THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT              
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH AND                     
ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BEFOREHAND. WILL AGAIN             
STICK WITH CONTINUITY HERE FOR A CHANCE OF RA/SN.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
SHORT TERM...MURPHY/SMITH                                                       
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
800 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING TO REMOVE RAIN FROM NORTHEAST CWA AND                 
INCLUDE DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS CWA INTO MID MORNING THEN CLOUDY                 
THROUGH AFTERNOON. ALSO BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED              
ON CURRENT READINGS AND TEMPS UPSTREAM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND EXPANSIVE AREA OF            
IFR CIGS NOW MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS. LATEST SATELLITE AND CIG                
DATA SHOW LARGE AREA OF IFR AND LIFR COVERING MOST OF INDIANA AND               
EXTENDING BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND IOWA. VSBY NOT MUCH BETTER WITH                
MOST LOCATIONS IFR. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LOW LEVELS                     
REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED TODAY. ETA BUFKIT DOES OFFER SOME HOPE               
FOR A SLOW RISE OF CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LCL            
HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMBING OUT TO ABOUT 1500FT. WILL KEEP THINGS IFR AT            
BOTH SITES THROUGH 19Z...THEN OFFER SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS               
THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. ETA MODEL SHOWING A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE             
ADVECTION ON 290K AND 295K SURFACES BY 06Z. THIS COMBINED WITH DPVA             
FROM STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS                
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DEEP UVV. BOTH MET/MAV SUGGEST CIGS WILL               
BEGIN TO TANK AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BECOMES FULLY SATURATED              
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
ISSUES AGAIN WITH MODEL PREFERENCE. OPERATIONAL GFS 24 HOURS AGO HAD            
TRENDED IN RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NOW TOO FAR SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE               
LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY. ETA WAS THE OUTLIER 24 HOURS AGO AND NOW APPEARS            
TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN AZ. ETA HARD            
TO BEAT WITH NGM/20KM DEV RUC AGREEMENT AND EVEN SEVERAL GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANING FURTHER NORTHWEST AS WELL. ECMWF/UKMET IN              
BETWEEN BUT AT LEAST TRACKING SURFACE LOW THROUGH FORECAST AREA.                
FIRST ISSUE WITH RISING TEMPS PROBABLE FOR FIRST TWO FORECAST                   
PERIODS. ETA LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT WAA               
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM 2-4C TO LOWER             
TEENS BY 12Z TUE. FIRST AREA OF RAIN/BEST LIFT LIFTING NORTHEAST                
THROUGH THIS MORNING MAY HAVE TO HANG ONTO SOME HIGHER POPS                     
NORTHEAST THIS AM...THEN WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR            
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...COULD BE SOME                  
SPOTTY TRACE DZ THOUGH WITH STRATUS LATE MORNING AND THEN CIGS                  
LOWERING AGAIN AFTER DARK...HOWEVER BUFKIT XSECTIONS SHOWING UVM IN             
MOIST LAYER LACKING. INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL BEYOND 06Z                  
TONIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LONG HOOKED HODOGRAPH               
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS GREATER THAN 50KTS...DEEP UVM AND                 
SHOWALTER NEAR 0C/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM WILL MENTION AT               
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LATE TONIGHT SOUTH AND EAST.                       
LONG TERM                                                                       
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE PROGRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW NOW DIGGING INTO               
THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND EJECT OUT             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND SPAWN LEE SIDE SURFACE                       
CYCLOGENESIS. SYSTEM WILL SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES            
BY 12Z TUES. ETA AND GFS HAVE RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE             
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE ETA FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER WHILE             
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. ETA HAS BEEN SUPERIOR THE PAST              
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. EACH ONE HAS COME             
OUT FURTHER NORTHWEST AND MORE WOUND UP THAN MODELS SUGGEST IN THE              
36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM                 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY 12Z THURS WITH ERRONEOUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED            
DYNAMICS DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST. WILL GO WITH THE                 
FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER ETA SOLUTION. WITH THE ETA IDEA...MAIN                
PUSH OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND 12Z TUE                
WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET BUILDING DRY SLOT IN BY MIDDAY. WILL             
FOLLOW LOWER ETA POPS WITH LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH...MAINLY               
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERNOON COULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY. 925MB                 
TEMPS SOAR TO +14C AT 12Z TUE EAST AND +10 NORTHWEST. EVEN MIXED                
DOWN MOIST ADIABATICALLY THIS SUPPORTS MID 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S             
SOUTHEAST. WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE YET...BUT PLAY AS UPPER            
50S SOUTHEAST TO LOW 50S NORTHWEST. THESE WILL BE MORNING HIGHS WITH            
STRONG CAA DROPPING TEMPS BY AFTERNOON.                                         
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THURSDAY. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES             
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES             
BY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TUE MORNING. ETA BUFKIT SHOWING VERY               
NICE ISSALOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLET OF -8MB/3HR TO +6MB/3HR THURSDAY             
MORNING. STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE             
ABLE TO MIX DOWN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FROM ALOFT WITH ETA BUFKIT                  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SHOWING 40-45KT GUST POTENTIAL. WILL RAMP             
WINDS UP IN GRIDS. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES WINDS COULD APPROACH                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR             
SW OVER THE NORTH WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING NEARBY. 850MB             
TEMPS -3C TO -5C RANGE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WED BRINING FAIR SKIES AND WAA               
ALREADY BEGINNING WITH MODERATING TEMPS.                                        
NEXT BIG TICKET ITEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL MEDIUM             
RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A FULL LATITUDE                  
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. THIS CAN BE TRACED BACK             
TO THE RECURVING OF TYPHOON NANMADOL OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC A FEW             
DAYS AGO. THIS RECURVING VERY OFTEN SIGNALS A DIGGING TROUGH INTO               
THE EASTERN CONUS ABOUT A WEEK LATER AS THE STRONG INFLUX OF ENERGY             
INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES CAUSES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. GFS                    
ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE PNA INDEX TRENDING STRONGLY POSITIVE BY LATE              
WEEK BUT ALSO SHOW THE NAO AND AO INDEX REMAINING POSITIVE OVER THE             
NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN            
US LATE WEEK. BUT WITH THE NAO AND AO REMAINING POSITIVE HIGH                   
LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL NOT SET UP AND ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED EAST                
COAST TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS               
DISPLACED VERY FAR NORTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER THE CANADIAN                  
ARCHIPELEGO NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INSTEAD OF OVER HUDSON BAY.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSIVE             
IN NATURE AND NOT REPRESENT A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT.                              
WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A TURN TOWARDS SIGNIFICANTLY               
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF INITIALLY RAIN THEN SNOW LATE            
WEEK AS TROUGH DIGS IN. MODELS SHOWING MUCH MORE SPREAD IN SURFACE              
SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WILL RETAIN CONTINUITY             
AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURS PM THROUGH FRI NGT. A CLIPPER WILL                
DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF                   
PRECIP. CURRENT GFS TRACKS THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT              
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH AND                     
ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BEFOREHAND. WILL AGAIN             
STICK WITH CONTINUITY HERE FOR A CHANCE OF RA/SN.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SMITH                                                                
SHORT TERM...MURPHY/SMITH                                                       
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
641 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE REVOLVE AROUND EXPANSIVE AREA OF            
IFR CIGS NOW MOVING INTO THE TERMINALS. LATEST SATELLITE AND CIG                
DATA SHOW LARGE AREA OF IFR AND LIFR COVERING MOST OF INDIANA AND               
EXTENDING BACK INTO ILLINOIS AND IOWA. VSBY NOT MUCH BETTER WITH                
MOST LOCATIONS IFR. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING LOW LEVELS                     
REMAINING NEARLY SATURATED TODAY. ETA BUFKIT DOES OFFER SOME HOPE               
FOR A SLOW RISE OF CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LCL            
HEIGHTS SLOWLY CLIMBING OUT TO ABOUT 1500FT. WILL KEEP THINGS IFR AT            
BOTH SITES THROUGH 19Z...THEN OFFER SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS               
THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. ETA MODEL SHOWING A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE             
ADVECTION ON 290K AND 295K SURFACES BY 06Z. THIS COMBINED WITH DPVA             
FROM STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS                
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF DEEP UVV. BOTH MET/MAV SUGGEST CIGS WILL               
BEGIN TO TANK AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS COLUMN BECOMES FULLY SATURATED              
ONCE AGAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
ISSUES AGAIN WITH MODEL PREFERENCE. OPERATIONAL GFS 24 HOURS AGO HAD            
TRENDED IN RIGHT DIRECTION BUT NOW TOO FAR SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE               
LOW AT 12Z TUESDAY. ETA WAS THE OUTLIER 24 HOURS AGO AND NOW APPEARS            
TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON ENERGY TO LIFT OUT OF SOUTHERN AZ. ETA HARD            
TO BEAT WITH NGM/20KM DEV RUC AGREEMENT AND EVEN SEVERAL GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LEANING FURTHER NORTHWEST AS WELL. ECMWF/UKMET IN              
BETWEEN BUT AT LEAST TRACKING SURFACE LOW THROUGH FORECAST AREA.                
FIRST ISSUE WITH RISING TEMPS PROBABLE FOR FIRST TWO FORECAST                   
PERIODS. ETA LOW LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN WITH STRONG/PERSISTENT WAA               
THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH 925MB TEMPS RISING FROM 2-4C TO LOWER             
TEENS BY 12Z TUE. FIRST AREA OF RAIN/BEST LIFT LIFTING NORTHEAST                
THROUGH THIS MORNING MAY HAVE TO HANG ONTO SOME HIGHER POPS                     
NORTHEAST THIS AM...THEN WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR            
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...COULD BE SOME                  
SPOTTY TRACE DZ THOUGH WITH STRATUS LATE MORNING AND THEN CIGS                  
LOWERING AGAIN AFTER DARK...HOWEVER BUFKIT XSECTIONS SHOWING UVM IN             
MOIST LAYER LACKING. INCREASING POPS TO CATEGORICAL BEYOND 06Z                  
TONIGHT. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LONG HOOKED HODOGRAPH               
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS GREATER THAN 50KTS...DEEP UVM AND                 
SHOWALTER NEAR 0C/H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5 C/KM WILL MENTION AT               
LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA LATE TONIGHT SOUTH AND EAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                                          
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THE PROGRESSIVE CUTOFF LOW NOW DIGGING INTO               
THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND EJECT OUT             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND SPAWN LEE SIDE SURFACE                       
CYCLOGENESIS. SYSTEM WILL SWING NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES            
BY 12Z TUES. ETA AND GFS HAVE RATHER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE             
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE ETA FURTHER WEST AND DEEPER WHILE             
THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER EAST. ETA HAS BEEN SUPERIOR THE PAST              
SEVERAL WEEKS WITH THESE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. EACH ONE HAS COME             
OUT FURTHER NORTHWEST AND MORE WOUND UP THAN MODELS SUGGEST IN THE              
36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM                 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BY 12Z THURS WITH ERRONEOUS CONVECTIVELY INDUCED            
DYNAMICS DRAWING THE SURFACE LOW TOO FAR EAST. WILL GO WITH THE                 
FURTHER WEST AND STRONGER ETA SOLUTION. WITH THE ETA IDEA...MAIN                
PUSH OF PRECIP WILL BE EXITING THE NORTH AND EAST AROUND 12Z TUE                
WITH VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET BUILDING DRY SLOT IN BY MIDDAY. WILL             
FOLLOW LOWER ETA POPS WITH LIKELY NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH...MAINLY               
FOR THE MORNING. AFTERNOON COULD END UP BEING MAINLY DRY. 925MB                 
TEMPS SOAR TO +14C AT 12Z TUE EAST AND +10 NORTHWEST. EVEN MIXED                
DOWN MOIST ADIABATICALLY THIS SUPPORTS MID 50S NORTHWEST TO LOW 60S             
SOUTHEAST. WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE YET...BUT PLAY AS UPPER            
50S SOUTHEAST TO LOW 50S NORTHWEST. THESE WILL BE MORNING HIGHS WITH            
STRONG CAA DROPPING TEMPS BY AFTERNOON.                                         
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS ON THURSDAY. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES             
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES             
BY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA TUE MORNING. ETA BUFKIT SHOWING VERY               
NICE ISSALOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLET OF -8MB/3HR TO +6MB/3HR THURSDAY             
MORNING. STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE             
ABLE TO MIX DOWN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS FROM ALOFT WITH ETA BUFKIT                  
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SHOWING 40-45KT GUST POTENTIAL. WILL RAMP             
WINDS UP IN GRIDS. IF ETA SOLUTION VERIFIES WINDS COULD APPROACH                
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR             
SW OVER THE NORTH WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINING NEARBY. 850MB             
TEMPS -3C TO -5C RANGE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE                 
EFFECT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR WED BRINING FAIR SKIES AND WAA               
ALREADY BEGINNING WITH MODERATING TEMPS.                                        
NEXT BIG TICKET ITEM WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL MEDIUM             
RANGE GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DIGGING A FULL LATITUDE                  
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK. THIS CAN BE TRACED BACK             
TO THE RECURVING OF TYPHOON NANMADOL OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC A FEW             
DAYS AGO. THIS RECURVING VERY OFTEN SIGNALS A DIGGING TROUGH INTO               
THE EASTERN CONUS ABOUT A WEEK LATER AS THE STRONG INFLUX OF ENERGY             
INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES CAUSES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION. GFS                    
ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE PNA INDEX TRENDING STRONGLY POSITIVE BY LATE              
WEEK BUT ALSO SHOW THE NAO AND AO INDEX REMAINING POSITIVE OVER THE             
NEXT 10 DAYS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN            
US LATE WEEK. BUT WITH THE NAO AND AO REMAINING POSITIVE HIGH                   
LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL NOT SET UP AND ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED EAST                
COAST TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOWING THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS               
DISPLACED VERY FAR NORTH THIS TIME OF YEAR...OVER THE CANADIAN                  
ARCHIPELEGO NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INSTEAD OF OVER HUDSON BAY.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...TROUGH FOR LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE PROGRESSIVE             
IN NATURE AND NOT REPRESENT A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT.                              
WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A TURN TOWARDS SIGNIFICANTLY               
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF INITIALLY RAIN THEN SNOW LATE            
WEEK AS TROUGH DIGS IN. MODELS SHOWING MUCH MORE SPREAD IN SURFACE              
SOLUTIONS...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED. FOR NOW WILL RETAIN CONTINUITY             
AND GO WITH CHANCE POPS THURS PM THROUGH FRI NGT. A CLIPPER WILL                
DROP SOUTHEAST IN THE MEAN FLOW SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF                   
PRECIP. CURRENT GFS TRACKS THIS SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT              
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE STRENGTH AND                     
ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS BEFOREHAND. WILL AGAIN             
STICK WITH CONTINUITY HERE FOR A CHANCE OF RA/SN.                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                            
SHORT TERM...MURPHY                                                             
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
324 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE            
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT AND LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A                 
STRONG SHORTWAVE HAS QUICKLY COME ON SHORE TODAY AND RACED EAST INTO            
SE NEW MEXICO. ACROSS THE STATE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE HELD ON               
ALL DAY ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE LOWEST CONDITIONS NORTH OF A WARM             
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. VISIBILITIES              
HAVE BEEN NEAR ZERO NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHER VISIBILITIES TO              
THE SOUTH. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A                
MILE NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT AND WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG                   
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST THIRD. DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE                  
GFS/ETA/RUC ON HOW MUCH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT               
LIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY                   
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR WITH THE                
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. SOME LIGHT            
RAIN MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 15Z BEFORE MOVING EAST.            
MAIN CONCERN ON TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. OVERALL THE NORTHEAST              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLOUD ALL DAY WITH A               
FEW BREAKS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. THERE IS A BIG DISCREPANCY                
AMONG GUIDANCE HIGHS AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MET WITH                 
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.             
A BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF                
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY.                 
DESPITE GOOD SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW...CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT A 20 DEGREE             
DIURNAL RANGE FROM MORNING LOWS AS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.                      
.LONG TERM(THU-MON)...                                                          
PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RACING THROUGH THE               
NORTHWEST FLOW. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD WILL            
BE ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES DOWN THE                  
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEMS WILL BE ALBERTA             
CLIPPERS TO THE NORTH AND THESE SYSTEMS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME                   
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO              
20 OR BELOW FOR FRI-MON. TEMPERATURES THU-SAT WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL            
VALUES. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE             
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL             
TO BE QUITE WINDY. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...NO ARCTIC AIR IS IN                 
SIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9PM-6AM              
TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.                                                 
IAZ004>007-015>017-024>028-036>039-070430-                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DONAVON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EST MON DEC 06 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN TYPE/TRENDS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE.                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED PATTERN WITH TROFFING OVER THE            
W AND SE CONUS RDG LEAVING SW FLOW INTO THE GRT LAKES. LEAD SHRTWV              
EXTENDED ACRS THE THE UP WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER             
WEAK SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER S CNTRL NEB WHILE THE MAIN VIGOROUS                
SRN STREAM UPSTREAM VORT WAS LOCATED OVER SE NM. AT THE SFC...ESE               
FLOW PREVAILED BTWN NRN ONTARIO /QUEBEC RDG AND DISORGANIZED TROF               
OVER THE PLAINS. RADARS INDICATED MAIN BAND OF -SN HAD LIFTED N OF              
UPR MI WITH MAINLY LOWER LVL RETURNS SPREADING THROUGH CNTRL UPR                
MI. UPSTREAM (KMPX/KARX/KMKX) VAD WND PRFLS ALSO SHOWED LACK OF                 
RETURNS ABV 6K FT. WHILE LITTLE -FZDZ NOTED UPSTREAM...OCNL MIX WITH            
-FZDZSN WAS OBSERVED AT THE NWS OFFICE.                                         
TONIGHT...WITH DEPARTURE OF DECENT SHRTWV DYNAMICS...LOWER LVL                  
(280K-290K) ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUSTAIN AREA OF VERY LGT PCPN.               
SINCE MDL SNDGS SHOW PROMINENT ENOUGH 800-600 MB DRYING TO DISRUPT              
SUPPLY OF ICE NUCLEI...WILL EMPHASIZE -FZDZ/-DZ AS TEMPS WERE                   
STRADDLING THE FREEZING MARK..ABV OVER THE S AND NEAR THE LAKES BUT             
BLO INLAND...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY            
RISING. WEAK UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND MDLS DEPICTION OF SHRINKING DRY LYR            
LATE TONIGHT ALSO WILL ALSO KEEP POTENTIAL FOR -SN GOING.                       
HOWEVER...WITH GENERALLY WEAK LIFT...LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION             
IS EXPECTED.                                                                    
TUE...MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SRN STREAM                
VORT AND DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND THERMAL                
FIELDS. THE 12Z/18Z CONTINUE TO FCST A MORE NRLY TRACK THAN THE GFS.            
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM SHRTWV...A BLEND MORE TOWARD THE             
ETA IS PREFERRED. LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z UKMET WOULD BE GOOD              
COMPROMISE. WITH VERY STRONG UPR LVL DIV FROM COUPLED JET                       
PATTERN...DEEPENING LOW TO NEAR 986  MB OVER LK HURON BY 00Z/WED                
SEEMS REASONABLE. SO...EXPECT MAINLY LINGERING -FZDZSN DURING THE               
MORNING WITH PCPN SHIELD FROM THE STORM AFFECTING MAINLY THE SE 1/3             
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEVELOPING ENE FLOW AS THE LOW                            
INTENSIFIES...INFLOW OVER VERY COLD AIR FROM NE ONTARIO MAY KEEP                
TEMP BLO FREEZING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF E CNTRL UPR MI. ETA FCST              
SNDGS SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A WARM LYR FOR IP/FZRA POTENTIAL DURING THE             
AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON LOW STRENGTH/TRACK AND                 
THERMAL PROFILE...NO HEADLINES ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL                     
HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND MENTION PCPN MIX IN THE GRIDS/ZFP. FARTHER WEST            
WHERE PCPN CHANCES ARE MORE MARGINAL...EXPECT MAINLY JUST SNOW OR               
RAIN WITH ANY WARM LYR CONFINED TO LOWER PORTION OF THE SNDG.                   
TUE NIGHT...A TRAILING NRN STREAM SHRTWV ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW               
LVL MOISTURE AND CONV NEAR THE TROF AXIS MAY KEEP SOME -SN GOING                
OVER THE WEST. ALTHOUGH WINDS BECOME WNW..H8 TEMPS ONLY TO AROUND               
-5C WILL NOT PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LES.                                
WED...EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AS MID LVL AND              
SFC RDG WILL SLIDE EAST AS WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHRTWV AND            
SFC LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. WENT WITH ETA/GFS GUIDANCE               
BLEND FOR AS ONLY MODERATE WINDS MAY NOT BRING ENOUGH MIXING TO                 
REACH WARMER GFS VALUES.                                                        
WED NIGHT INTO THU...SHRTWV IN ZONAL PATTERN WITH WEAK TO MODERATE              
QG FORCING AND ASSOCIATED WAA WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AT LEAST                
CHANCE POPS FOR PCPN WED NIGHT. ETA/GFS 1000-850 THICKNESS SUGGESTS             
POSSIBILITY OF RA/SN MIX OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST. A BRIEF GAP IN                
PCPN CHANCES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SHRTWV NEAR BY                
LATER THU BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO TIME A DRY PERIOD AT THIS POINT.              
FRI-MON...MDLS WERE IN BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT...AT LEAST WITH              
RESPECT TO LARGE SCALE FEATURES. ACCORDINGLY...OPERATIONAL GFS LINED            
UP REASONABLY WELL WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. SO...RELIED ON A BLEND OF            
THE 00Z/12Z GFS FOR DETAILS. 1000-850 THICKNESS PROG SUGGESTS                   
CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OF RAIN SNOW MIX INTO FRI. WHILE H8               
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM ARE NOT THAT COLD ONLY TO AROUND                        
-10C...CYCLONIC FLOW WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME              
LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN INTO AREAS FAVORED BY NRLY FLOW. EXPECT PAUSE IN            
PCPN AS WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH             
AMOUNT OF WARMING AND RA/SN POTENTIAL...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF               
THE SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW. FOR NOW...MDL CONSENSUS KEEPS                
ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW. WITH TREND TOWARD MORE                
AMPLIFIED PNA PATTERN...INFLUX OF EVEN COLDER AIR WITH H8 TEMPS TO              
AROUND -15C WILL SUPPORT LES WITH POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT                    
ACCUMULATIONS FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY N TO NW FLOW FROM SUN NIGHT              
INTO MON.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST MON DEC 06 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND NEED FOR ADVISORIES.            
CURRENT WEATHER...15Z WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SHRTWV MOVING INTO              
UPPER MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING WAS COMING IN BEHIND IT OVER IOWA.                 
MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE U.P. TOMORROW WAS              
LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. SHRTWV MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN            
HAS HELPED IN BRINGING A BAND OF SNOW. AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE RANGE                
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE MOST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER                   
COUNTIES. SEE WMO HEADER NOUS43 KMQT OR AWIPS PIL ARBPNSMQT FOR A               
LISTING OF SNOWFALL REPORTS. THIS BAND OF SNOW HAS ALSO BEEN                    
SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SEEN ON THE 285-295K SURFACES AND BY            
SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 800-700MB LAYER. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM              
GRB AND MSP ARE ALL REALLY MOIST...WITH NEAR SATURATION FROM THE                
SURFACE TO 400MB. ALL THREE SOUNDINGS WERE ALSO BELOW FREEZING...BUT            
THE MSP SOUNDING DOES DEPICT A NEAR ZERO LAYER AROUND 900MB. WITHOUT            
MUCH FORCING...THAT MOISTURE ON THE MSP SOUNDING COMBINED WITH NEAR             
ZERO LAYER HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE. FREEZING DRIZZLE             
HAS ALSO JUST STARTED IN RHINELANDER. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW                
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED FROM KANSAS TO IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING            
EASTWARD ALONG I-80.                                                            
BOTH THE RUC AND THE ETA INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION GOING.                           
HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING COMING IN BEHIND THE PASSING SHRTWV             
WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY FROM WHAT IT HAS              
BEEN THIS MORNING. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SNOW WILL CHANGE                
OVER TO DRIZZLE OR PERHAPS FREEZING DRIZZLE. NEW 12Z ETA INDICATES              
THAT DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ABOVE 750MB WHILE BELOW THAT THINGS STAY            
VERY MOIST. TEMPERATURES BELOW 750MB START OFF BETWEEN -8 AND -10C              
OVER THE U.P. AROUND NOON...BUT THEN WARM TO -4 TO -6C BY 00Z. SO               
DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A SNOW CHANGING TO A DRIZZLE SCENARIO. AS FOR             
TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY THEY ARE RUNNING IN              
THE MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...EXCEPT               
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE THEY ARE ABOVE FREEZING. ABOVE FREEZING               
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY             
29. DEWPOINTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE TEMPERATURES...SO DESPITE EASTERLY             
FLOW COMING FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST...DEWPOINTS                
REMAIN HIGH. LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WARMING UP ABOVE                
FREEZING ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHEREAS              
THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE A LITTLE MORE RELUCTANT...HOLDING OFF              
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TIMING             
IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD OF THE CHANGE OVER...AND WILL LEAVE IN THE              
MIX OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS FOR AN ADVISORY...WITH THE               
LACK OF CONFIDENCE OF HAVING PURE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AN EXTENDED              
PERIOD OF TIME...WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ROAD               
SURFACES BOTH WARM AND SALTED...NOT PLANNING ON GOING WITH ONE AT               
THE MOMENT. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT RISE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS            
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS AND PERSISTS...MAY UPDATE FORECAST LATER            
AND PUT OUT AN ADVISORY.                                                        
COORDINATED WITH GRB AND APX...THANKS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EST MON DEC 06 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SNOW AMTS FOR TODAY THEN DZ/FZDZ THIS                 
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH MORE MIXED PRECIP TUESDAY.                    
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 5H RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS ONE SRN STREAM                
SHRTWV LIFTING NE INTO SRN WI AND SRN LWR MI WHILE ANOTHER STRONG               
SHRTWV IS ROUNDING BASE OF THE 5H TROF OVER SRN CA.                             
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ASSOC 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 800-700 MB 2D               
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF LEADING SHORTWAVE AIDING AREA OF -SN AND SOME            
-RA ACROSS LWR MI AND AND NRN WI. MODELS SUGGEST THAT BEST                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY SE OF CWA AND RADAR                 
TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS WITH BEST RETURNS OVER LWR MI. STILL                
MODEL QFP AMOUNTS OF .1 TO .2 INCH COULD RESULT IN INCH OR TWO OF               
SNOW. EXPECT GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER CENTRAL AND SE ZONES CLOSER TO               
BEST LIFT AND POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPSLOPE SE FLOW.                                
LOOK FOR SNOW TO GENERALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS            
NORTH OF AREA AND DNVA/SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE RESULTS IN SOME DRYING            
IN 800-500 MB LYR PER ETA AND GFS FCST SNDGS. THIS DRY LYR ALOFT                
WILL DISRUPT ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION PROCESS (NO MSTR INTERSECTING               
-10 TO -15C ISOTHERMS) AND WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF                
DZ/FZDZ THIS AFT. DRY LYR ALOFT PERSISTS INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT AND               
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SE FLOW (GENERALLY UPSLOPE FLOW FOR MUCH OF            
CWA) CONTINUING...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR FZDZ/DZ EVENT. HAVE              
HIGHLIGHTED FZDZ IN NEW HWO.                                                    
TUESDAY...UPPER LOW/SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EJECT               
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MIDWEST BY TUE MORNING. FOLLOWED UKMET             
SOLN WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF MORE PHASED AND                  
STRONGER ETA SOLN AND WEAKER AND MORE SRLY SOLN OF GFS. WITH SOME               
ISENTROPIC LIFT FCST AND UPR DIV IN RRQ OF 110 KT 3H JET KEPT IN                
LIKELY POPS FOR OVER ERN COUNTIES WITH GRADUALLY LESSER CHCS FOR                
PCPN TO THE WEST AWAY FM BETTER DYNAMICS. SNDG PROFILES SUGGEST                 
RA/SN MIX OVER ERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH MOSTLY SN WEST.                       
TUESDAY NIGHT...SYSTEM DEPARTS QUICKLY EAST OF FORECAST AREA IN THE             
EVENING WITH RDG BUILDING IN FM WEST OVERNIGHT. ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE             
WITH CAA BEHIND SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWREING TO -8C OVER LAKE               
SUPERIOR. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW ...DESPITE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.                    
OTHERWISE EXPECT CHC OF -SN IN EVENING...THEN GENERALLY CLRG SKIES              
OVERNIGHT WITH RDGG/SUBSIDENCE BLDG IN. GENERALLY SIDED WITH COOLER             
ETA TEMPS FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WEST...WHICH SHOWS LOWS DIPPING              
INTO MID TEENS OVER WI BDR.                                                     
WEDNESDAY...DRY AND MILD DAY STILL ON TRACK WITH RETURN FLOW                    
ALLOWING 850MB TEMPS TO WARM TO -2C BY MIDDAY. EXPECTING HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...PER PREV FCST UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
900 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF CWA AS THE                    
HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELD HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EAST            
CENTRAL COUNTIES AND HEAVY RAIN IS NO LONGER A THREAT. DOPPLER RADAR            
ESTIMATES SHOW UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH FELL FROM LINN COUNTY KS              
TO NORTH OF MARSHALL MO. A SECOND AREA OF EVEN LIGHT RAIN IS                    
DEVELOPING IN THE DEFORMATION AREA OVER NORTHWEST OK NORTH OF THE               
MAIN VORT MAX NEAR CDS. 00Z ETA STRENGTHENS THE PVA ZONE ASSOCIATED             
WITH THIS FEATURE AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. SO EXPECT              
TO SEE THE RAIN OVER NORTHWEST OK EXPAND A BIT AS IT SPREADS                    
NORTHEAST AND BASICALLY TRACK ACROSS THE SAME AREA WHICH PICKED UP              
THE RAIN THIS EVENING. BUT QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A TENTH OF              
AN INCH. WE HAVE ONE RIVER WHICH WENT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING            
AND LATEST RFC GUIDANCE DOES NOT EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RIVERS TO GO             
INTO FLOOD. ALSO DROPPING MENTION OF THUNDER FROM FORECAST. WILL                
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG BUT NO ADVISORY AS I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO               
BECOME WIDESPREAD. UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES CURRENTLY IN THE 1-2SM                 
RANGE. TOMORROWS AIRMASS WAS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA TODAY AND                    
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN                   
CURRENTLY FORECAST. WILL TRIM THEM BACK A FEW DEGREES.                          
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
312 PM...                                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS NORTH AND WEST EXTENT OF                
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST                  
KANSAS...RACING NORTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 60 KTS.  EXTRAPOLATION OF                 
RADAR TRENDS INDICATES THIS RAIN REACHING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF              
THE FORECAST AREA BY 4 PM...AND THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE METRO               
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM.  HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE              
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF             
THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.                                      
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD THE                  
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BECOME. OVERALL WENT WITH THE GFS/NGM                 
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF              
THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OVER               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE PROGGED            
TO BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES             
IN OUR FORECAST AREA.  OVERALL AM NOT AS CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY               
RAIN THREAT AS WE WERE FROM EARLIER RUNS.  NONETHELESS...HEADWATER              
GUIDANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT             
TAKE MORE THAN A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT TO PUSH SEVERAL              
RIVER POINTS INTO FLOOD.  WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR TONIGHT            
AS IS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMPHASIS ON RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL AS              
THE SYSTEM IS NOT SHAPING UP AS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CHANCES FOR               
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO LOOK             
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND PROGGED K-INDICES AT OR ABOVE               
20C.  ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE                       
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ESPECIALLY EARLY...BUT AT THE MOMENT DO NOT                
EXPECT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE A FOG AS LAST NIGHT. MADE                  
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.                      
EXPECT THE RAIN TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO             
EAST...AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW RACES EAST.  SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME            
CLEARING...WHICH COUPLED WITH WEST WINDS WARRANTS A SUBTLE BOOST IN             
HIGHS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS              
QUIET THROUGH MID-WEEK.  DID BOOST HIGHS A TAD ON WEDNESDAY.                    
HUDSON                                                                          
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO PROG THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE            
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH              
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO REMAIN TO               
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DOWNGRADED POPS TO THE                 
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.                    
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH             
HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS              
THE EASTERN STATES WILL REDUCE READINGS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN            
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR                     
EARLY-MID DECEMBER. HAVE BUMPED UP SUNDAY MORNING LOWS...AS BREEZY              
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING                 
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                            
SCHMIT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
410 AM CST...                                                                   
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS FOG FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND                   
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.             
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SUNDAYS RAIN HAS SWEPT NORTHEAST ALONG               
WITH THE RAIN. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS                     
BEGINNING TO PULL THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SECOND WAVE                
WILL ARRIVE IN MISSOURI TONIGHT...PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF            
IT.                                                                             
FOR FOG THIS MORNING...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS THAT STARTED               
OUT IN THE 10 MPH RANGE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP                    
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE                
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAIN. CURRENT RUC/ETA/GFS MODEL               
RUNS SHOW THAT THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ATTENDANT WEAK WINDS...            
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE DENSE              
FOG HAS ONLY JUST STARTED DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                    
CWA...IT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST AS WINDS CALM DOWN. A SUBSIDENCE            
INVERSION BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE HAS ONLY ENHANCED THE FOG                
PROBLEM. THEREFORE I HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE                  
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON. THAT MIGHT PROVE TO BE A TOUCH TOO LONG IF             
THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST ANY                   
QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THOUGH.                                         
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WAVE WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE RAIN TO THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE IS QUITE VIGOROUS AS EVIDENT IN THE                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...WHICH SHOWED AN ABUNDANCE OF                          
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS AHEAD OF THE            
TROUGH HAVE ALSO BEEN SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO                  
ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH...WHICH HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF PUSHING            
TEMPS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO              
THE FOG THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA DIFFER A LITTLE ON HOW THE WAVE               
WILL AFFECT OUR CWA...WITH THE UP SHOT IN THE DIFFERENCES BEING THAT            
THE GFS KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ETA BRINGS            
IT IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE               
ETA'S SOLUTION DESPITE THE GFS'S BETTER INITIALIZATION. THE GFS                 
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK PROBLEMS AS IT                
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE TOO FAR                 
SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY...THE ETA HAS SLOWED THE EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM             
DOWN BY 2 TO 3 HOURS...PUSHING THE RAIN MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.            
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE THE WAVE.               
FOR THE EVENING HOURS LIFTED INDICES DROP AS THE TROUGH MOVES                   
IN...NEVER QUITE GOING NEGATIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW                  
POSITIVE VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INDICATE DESCENT INSTABILITY FOR EARLY                
DECEMBER. ADD THIS TO THE EARLIER SATELLITE OBSERVATION OF                      
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE TROUGH...AND IT LOOKS LIKE                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EVENING HOURS.                             
ADDITIONALLY...QPF FOR THE EVENT COULD BE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OR MORE                 
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS)...AND WITH THE HEADWATER                    
GUIDANCE FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI RUNNING IN            
THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE A FLOOD WATCH IN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...SAY            
6 PM THROUGH 6 AM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.                                     
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
312 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS NORTH AND WEST EXTENT OF                
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.  CURRENTLY WATCHING AN AREA OF                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST                  
KANSAS...RACING NORTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 60 KTS.  EXTRAPOLATION OF                 
RADAR TRENDS INDICATES THIS RAIN REACHING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF              
THE FORECAST AREA BY 4 PM...AND THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF THE METRO               
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM.  HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE              
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF             
THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.                                      
THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT IS HOW PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD THE                  
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BECOME. OVERALL WENT WITH THE GFS/NGM                 
SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF              
THE I-44 CORRIDOR.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN RADAR TRENDS OVER               
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE PROGGED            
TO BE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES             
IN OUR FORECAST AREA.  OVERALL AM NOT AS CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY               
RAIN THREAT AS WE WERE FROM EARLIER RUNS.  NONETHELESS...HEADWATER              
GUIDANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIVERS ARE QUITE LOW...AND IT WOULD NOT             
TAKE MORE THAN A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN TONIGHT TO PUSH SEVERAL              
RIVER POINTS INTO FLOOD.  WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH OUT FOR TONIGHT            
AS IS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMPHASIS ON RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL AS              
THE SYSTEM IS NOT SHAPING UP AS A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. CHANCES FOR               
THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO LOOK             
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND PROGGED K-INDICES AT OR ABOVE               
20C.  ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE                       
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ESPECIALLY EARLY...BUT AT THE MOMENT DO NOT                
EXPECT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE A FOG AS LAST NIGHT. MADE                  
LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.                      
EXPECT THE RAIN TO END FAIRLY QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM WEST TO             
EAST...AS VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW RACES EAST.  SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME            
CLEARING...WHICH COUPLED WITH WEST WINDS WARRANTS A SUBTLE BOOST IN             
HIGHS TOMORROW.  OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS              
QUIET THROUGH MID-WEEK.  DID BOOST HIGHS A TAD ON WEDNESDAY.                    
HUDSON                                                                          
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                   
CONTINUE TO PROG THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE            
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH              
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO                 
FRIDAY...ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO REMAIN TO               
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE DOWNGRADED POPS TO THE                 
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.                    
TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH             
HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS              
THE EASTERN STATES WILL REDUCE READINGS SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN            
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH                 
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR                     
EARLY-MID DECEMBER. HAVE BUMPED UP SUNDAY MORNING LOWS...AS BREEZY              
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING                 
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                            
SCHMIT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
410 AM CST...                                                                   
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS FOG FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND                   
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.             
THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SUNDAYS RAIN HAS SWEPT NORTHEAST ALONG               
WITH THE RAIN. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS                     
BEGINNING TO PULL THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SECOND WAVE                
WILL ARRIVE IN MISSOURI TONIGHT...PUSHING RAIN INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF            
IT.                                                                             
FOR FOG THIS MORNING...DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS THAT STARTED               
OUT IN THE 10 MPH RANGE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS TAKEN UP                    
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE                
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT YESTERDAYS RAIN. CURRENT RUC/ETA/GFS MODEL               
RUNS SHOW THAT THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ATTENDANT WEAK WINDS...            
WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE DENSE              
FOG HAS ONLY JUST STARTED DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                    
CWA...IT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST AS WINDS CALM DOWN. A SUBSIDENCE            
INVERSION BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE HAS ONLY ENHANCED THE FOG                
PROBLEM. THEREFORE I HAVE HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE                  
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH NOON. THAT MIGHT PROVE TO BE A TOUCH TOO LONG IF             
THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST ANY                   
QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THOUGH.                                         
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WAVE WILL              
MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND MORE RAIN TO THE            
FORECAST AREA. THE WAVE IS QUITE VIGOROUS AS EVIDENT IN THE                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...WHICH SHOWED AN ABUNDANCE OF                          
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS AHEAD OF THE            
TROUGH HAVE ALSO BEEN SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO                  
ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH...WHICH HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF PUSHING            
TEMPS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO              
THE FOG THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA DIFFER A LITTLE ON HOW THE WAVE               
WILL AFFECT OUR CWA...WITH THE UP SHOT IN THE DIFFERENCES BEING THAT            
THE GFS KEEPS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH WHILE THE ETA BRINGS            
IT IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. PREFERENCE IS FOR THE               
ETA'S SOLUTION DESPITE THE GFS'S BETTER INITIALIZATION. THE GFS                 
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK PROBLEMS AS IT                
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE TOO FAR                 
SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY...THE ETA HAS SLOWED THE EJECTION OF THE SYSTEM             
DOWN BY 2 TO 3 HOURS...PUSHING THE RAIN MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.            
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE THE WAVE.               
FOR THE EVENING HOURS LIFTED INDICES DROP AS THE TROUGH MOVES                   
IN...NEVER QUITE GOING NEGATIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT LOW                  
POSITIVE VALUES OF 1 TO 2 INDICATE DESCENT INSTABILITY FOR EARLY                
DECEMBER. ADD THIS TO THE EARLIER SATELLITE OBSERVATION OF                      
CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER IN THE TROUGH...AND IT LOOKS LIKE                        
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EVENING HOURS.                             
ADDITIONALLY...QPF FOR THE EVENT COULD BE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OR MORE                 
(ESPECIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS)...AND WITH THE HEADWATER                    
GUIDANCE FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI RUNNING IN            
THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE A FLOOD WATCH IN FOR THE EVENING HOURS...SAY            
6 PM THROUGH 6 AM...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD IDEA.                                     
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 600 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY FOR LINN              
AND MIAMI COUNTY.                                                               
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 600 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 600 AM TUESDAY ALONG AND             
SOUTH OF A HARRISONVILLE TO WAVERLY TO FAYETTE LINE.                            
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
845 PM MST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CREPT INTO MILES CITY AND BAKER THIS EVENING.           
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.          
CALLS AROUND TO SURROUNDING AREAS INDICATE THE FOG IS FAIRLY THICK              
ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN CUSTER AND FALLON COUNTIES.         
THE ETA/GFS ARE USELESS AS THEY DEPICT FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS          
ALL NIGHT.  RUC SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER AND ITS TREND OF LIFTING THE           
FOG/STRATUS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE LOOKS REASONABLE BASED         
ON THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.  HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE          
TWO COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM.                                                      
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM THIS EVENING ARE SPREADING               
EAST INTO THE CWA.  THEY APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY THICK...SO WILL                    
ADJUST CLOUD FORECAST TO READ MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.  THE CLOUDS AND            
FOG WILL SLOW THE COOLING TONIGHT.  FEEL CONFIDENT RAISING MIN TEMPERATURES     
SOME WHERE THE STRATUS AND FOG IS LOCATED...BUT THE CLOUDS SPREADING IN         
FROM THE WEST MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO DROP TO FORECAST       
LOWS. WILL LEAVE AS IS.                                                         
OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS MOUNTAIN SNOW NEAR COOKE CITY. THE SYSTEM THAT         
IS HEADING THROUGH OREGAON AND IDAHO THIS EVENING IS BRING SNOW TO THOSE        
LOCATIONS.  THE SYSTEM WILL SPLIT AND WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST...BUT IT          
STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE       
WEST FACING MOUNTAINS AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS.                        
MOORE                                                                           
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
GFS CONSISTENT FOR THE MOST PART AND HAVE MADE ONLY COSMETIC                    
CHANGES TO GRIDS THROUGH FRIDAY. LIKELY POPS FOR MTNS THIS PERIOD               
AS FRONTOGENESIS...FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND JET FORCING SHOULD HELP            
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL. MIXING SHOULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO UPPER YELLOWSTONE      
VALLEY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP AREAS TO EAST DRY...BUT LATER SHIFTS    
MAY NEED TO MONITOR THIS.                                                       
RIDGING ON FRIDAY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS. SFC GRADIENT            
INCREASES AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING COULD SET UP DECENT          
GAP FLOW EVENT. WINDS ALREADY SET HIGH THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN   
EYE ON THIS AS WEEK UNFOLDS AS PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE. MAY NEED TO BOOST     
TEMPS SATURDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE...BUT LEFT THIS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.   
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA IS COLD FRONT BEING DRAGGED ALONG AS LOW PRESSURE    
MOVES OUT FROM ROCKIES. THIS STILL PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. 
HAVE INTRODUCED SLGHT CHC POPS FURTHER ACROSS AREA AS RH AND FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
GIVE DECENT LIFT..THOUGH MOST ENERGY STAYS FURTHER EAST FOR NOW. THIS ALSO      
LINES UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ALSO...ENSEMBLE KEEPS MINIMUM TEMPS   
PRETTY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE AS WOULD EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARI
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FOR THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE  
EXTENDED PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE. TESAR                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 024/044 028/047 033/044 031/047 030/048 028/043 025/042                     
    00/E    00/N    00/N    00/B    00/N    20/B    00/B                        
LVM 029/045 030/047 034/046 031/049 031/049 030/043 024/042                     
    22/W    00/N    01/N    00/N    01/N    21/B    00/B                        
HDN 021/044 028/047 029/046 030/049 029/049 026/044 023/043                     
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/B    00/B    20/B    00/B                        
MLS 019/043 023/046 024/043 025/047 021/044 023/042 021/041                     
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/B    00/E    20/B    00/B                        
4BQ 017/046 024/048 026/046 026/049 025/047 021/044 018/043                     
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/B    00/B    20/B    00/B                        
BHK 018/042 020/044 024/041 022/042 019/039 021/038 017/037                     
    00/B    00/B    00/N    00/B    00/E    20/B    00/B                        
SHR 018/043 022/046 028/045 025/048 021/048 022/046 019/045                     
    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/N    20/B    00/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES              
      32-33.                                                                    
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
851 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN USA...WITH CHANNELLED VORT                  
MAXIMA MOVING NE THROUGH TN VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING                   
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION E OF TN VALLEY...BUT WITH MID LEVEL DRYING             
MOVING N INTO AREA...BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITAION SHIELD MOVING N INTO             
NC. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO WILL LEAVE              
CHANCE POPS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT MAXIMA ALONG S FACING BLUE             
RIDGE ESCARPMENT ALONG BORDER OF NC MTS WITH GA/SC MTS. HAVE                    
INTRODUCED THUNDER IN UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AS MESOETA CAPES              
EXCEED 200 J BRIEFLY. WITH PRECIP ENDING...AIR MASS MOIST...AND LOW             
ELEVATION WIND RATHER LIGHT...WILL INTRODUCE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG...            
INITIALLY BELOW 4000 FT...THEN BELOW 3000 FT. WIND TO INCREASE LATE             
TONIGHT AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT AND TIGHTER GRADIENT MOVE INTO AREA               
FROM W. 19Z MESOETA APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS.                   
GREATEST WIND INCREASE WILL BE ABOVE 3000 FEET...WHERE GUSTS COULD              
EXCEED 35 MPH.                                                                  
MANY TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREA ARE ALREADY AT OR BELOW PREVIOUS MIN              
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TEMP AND DEW POINT               
OBSERVATIONS IN MTS. WITH AIR NEARLY SATURATED...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH             
MORE TEMP DECREASE. ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN E OF MTS DEPENING ON CURRENT            
TEMP AND DEW POINT. ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES UP              
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO AREA.                
UPDATED DEW POINTS FROM 21Z RUC...WHICH CAPTURED CURRENT SITUATION              
BEST.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 256 PM EST MON DEC 6 2004                
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE               
MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ANDN NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS                  
AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ALONG I-85 FROM             
SPARTANBURG TO CHARLOTTE METRO. THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN IN             
THE SOUTHWEST NC MNTNS...WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT HAS RESULTED IN              
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH. AS THE UPPER JET/            
LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONES CONTINUES TO RETREAT NORTH...AND MUCH                
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR NOTED TO OUR SOUTH ON 12Z ANALYSES ADVECTS INTO             
THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXPECT RAINFALL TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE                  
REGION. IN FACT...AFTER A PERIOD OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL MOUNTAIN              
POPS THIS EVENING...WILL TAPER DOWN TO A TOKEN CHANCE OVERNIGHT.                
WILL CARRY HIGHER CHANCE POPS IN THE FAVORED SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE LATER            
TONIGHT...AS A 40-50 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                               
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BEGINNING TUE MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...AS             
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES FROM THE TENN VALLEY. WITH THE ASSOCIATED SW            
TROUGH LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THERE WILL NOT BE A GREAT               
DEAL OF MID/UPPER FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...AND THE MODELS DEPICT             
WANING LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE                 
CWFA. POPS WERE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE TENN                
BORDER COUNTIES FOR TUE...BUT WERE LEFT AS IS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF             
THERE. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TOMORROW WILL BE WINDS...AS THE 40-50 KT             
JET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CONSIDERING               
THE WARM ADVECTIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE               
WAY OF WIND PROBLEMS...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.                
HOWEVER...WITH THE CWFA EXPECTED TO BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR...            
EVEN PIEDMONT LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME RATHER HIGH YET NON-ADVISORY             
GUSTS WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER MIXING TOMORROW MORNING.                       
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
POPS INCREASE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH            
IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS.                
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FRI AS THE WAVE ALONG THE STALLED              
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. NW FLOW INCREASES FRI NIGHT                
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DIVING TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AS AN                
AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE HIGHER                  
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN COLDER NW FLOW FRI               
NIGHT THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY BEFORE A WEAK              
SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH SUN NIGHT...BRINGING INCREASED                      
MOISTURE...NW FLOW AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE TN BORDER MTNS...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW            
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...WIDESPREAD               
LOW CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE                  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES NE AND RAIN              
TAPERS OFF. SFC WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH NE...KEEPING REGION IN              
WARM...MOIST FLOW. MVFR...TEMPO IFR VIS/CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH IFR ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY                     
TUE MORNING. A BREAK IN RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL FILL IN WITH               
SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.                  
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...JAT                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
930 AM EST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...SEEMS THAT THE ETA DID QUITE WELL WITH ITS                
SUGGESTION OF THE COASTAL WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT NELY             
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N OF THE               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES IN THE ATLC SHIFTS FURTHER E. THIS             
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO WARM WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...AS             
WINDS SHIFT TO SE AND S. CURRENT PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE               
CWA WILL TAPER OFF AND END. WILL WAIT UNTIL PRECIP GETS OUT OF THE              
AREA BEFORE SENDING AN UPDATE. WILL ALSO TWEAK COASTAL TEMPS AND                
WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER INFLUX OFF THE ATLC. NRN TEMPS WILL BE              
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO                
CONSIDER GOING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTREME S AS CLEARING IS NOT            
FAR TO THE WSW.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WMFNT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TO CONTINUE MOVG N              
OVER ALL WATERS THRU THE AFTN HRS AND SHIFT WINDS ARND TO S-SE BY               
MIDDAY. RUC/M-ETA STRONGLY SHOW THIS SCENARIO WITH THE 06Z GFS A BIT            
MORE DIFFUSE WITH IT ALTHOUGH THE IDEA IS THERE. WILL ADJUST WORDING            
FOR WIND DIRECTIONS IN THE SC WATERS TO SE AND IN THE GA WATERS TO              
S. WIND SPEEDS LOOK GOOD...AS INITIALIZED WIND SPEEDS AND MSAS                  
ANALYSES MATCH UP WELL WITH RUC/M-ETA SPEEDS. -SHRA ACTIVITY OVER               
THE WATERS STEADILY PUSHING OFF TO THE E WHILE ALSO SLOWLY                      
DISSIPATING...THUS WILL NOT NEED TO CARRY ITS MENTION INTO THE AFTN             
FORECAST.                                                                       
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF/DENSE SEA FOG               
TNGT. 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE INDICATES WARM DEWPTS WILL MOVE OVER THE                 
COOLER COASTAL AIR TNGT...PARTICULARLY WITHIN 5 NM OF THE COAST.                
WILL MAINTAIN FOG WORDING AS IS AND MAKE ANY NEEDED CHANGES WITH THE            
AFTN PKG.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU EARLY EVE WITH ONLY             
THICK MID AND HIGH LVL CIGS TO DEAL WITH. WILL STILL LOOK FOR FOG TO            
IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 07/06Z TNGT AS IS ALREADY ADVERTISED.               
ISOLD -SHRA ACTIVITY GRADUALLY ENDING SO WILL NOT AMEND FOR IT.                 
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1136 AM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE ZFP EARLIER AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADV FOR OUR SE                   
QUARTER OF THE FA. SUNRISE IN ALL OF ITS GLORY...LOWERED VSBYS IN               
MOST LOCALES IN THAT AREA TO 1/4 MI TEMPORARILY. DECIDED TO KEEP IT             
GOING UNTIL 11 AM AS THAT IS WHEN THE RUC SNDGS SHOWED SOME DEG OF              
MIXING IN THE LOWEST LYR. FOG IS STILL PREVALENT ATTM NEARLY                    
EVERYWHERE IN THE CWA...BUT THE DENSE FOG IS COOPERATING NICELY AND             
HAS GREATLY IMPROVED BETWEEN 10 AND 11AM. MANY SPOTS IN SW MN AND NW            
IA WERE REPORTING 1/4 MI OR LESS FOR A TIME AFT SUNRISE. WL UPDATE              
THE ZFP AGAIN AFT 11 AM TO ELIMINATE THE ADV. UPDATED SOME OF THE               
GRIDS...INCLUDING SKY COVER THRU TUESDAY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS                
THAT THE SFC TROF AXIS REALLY NEVER MAKES IT THRU THIS AFTN FM THE              
JAMES VALLEY EWD. IN ELONGATES FM NW TO SE...AND SOME DRYING WLY                
FLOW UNDERCUTS THE SOUP AND EDGES EWD LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING                
ALONG THE NEB/SD BORDER TOWARD KSUX. HOWEVER...AS THE OVERALL UPPER             
TROF EXITS LATE THIS EVENING...LOW LVL WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO THE NNW             
DRAINING DOWN THE LOW STRATUS FM ND INTO THIS AREA...AND IT MAY BE A            
WHILE ON TUE BEFORE IT CLEARS OUT IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS AND VISBYS CONTINUING TO CAUSE AVIATION PROBLEMS ACROSS             
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AM NOT EXPECTING              
ANY OF THE TAF SITES TO CLEAR OUT OF THE CLOUDS COMPLETELY THIS                 
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE             
TO IFR-LOW MVFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE AT FSD           
WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND CIGS               
SHOULD NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE IFR RANGE. AFTER SUNSET CIGS SHOULD                 
BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AND VISBYS WILL BEGIN TO FALL INTO THE 2-5SM               
RANGE PRIMARILY AT FSD AND NORTHEAST. CIGS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE              
IFR RANGE AFTER 06Z AT HON...AND INTO THE IFR/LIFR RANGE AT                     
KSUX/KFSD. SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS WILL BREAK AT SUX                      
OVERNIGHT...IF THIS OCCURS CAN EXPECT IFR FG AND CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT            
ATTM AM NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT LOSS OF STRATUS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF/JRM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CST MON DEC 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON FOG TONIGHT...TIMING AND TYPE OF                
PRECIPITATION WITH APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.                                    
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.                
COMBINATION OF MILD MOIST AIRMASS...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION                
OVERRIDING WARM FRONT SOUTH OF STATE AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL KEEP             
EXISTING FOG ONGOING TONIGHT. ETA/GFS/NGM/RUC PROGS IN CLOSE                    
AGREEMENT TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MAY              
INCREASE VISIBILITIES.                                                          
IN THE LONG TERM...ALL PROGS INTENSIFY LOW AS IT TRACKS SOUTH AND               
EAST OF REGION. NEVERTHELESS 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE AND 1000/500              
MILLIBAR PROGS DO NOT COLLAPSE FAST ENOUGH TO TURN RAIN OVER TO LIGHT           
SNOW EXCEPT IN WESTERN PORTIONS WHERE A RAIN/LIGHT SNOW MIX IS                  
INDICATED BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.                                            
IN THE LONG LONG TERM...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO                   
WEEKEND WITH FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNING/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT                    
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
345 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD ETA SOLUTION FROM 24              
HOURS AGO AND ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH             
DETAILED FORECAST ULTIMATELY WILL LOOK TO ETA/ETA12/RUC FOR                     
GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CUTOFF AND DEEPEN OVER 100M/12                 
HOURS TODAY AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH REFLECTION FOUND IN 999 MB                
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST               
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 990MB ACROSS LAKE HURON              
THIS EVENING. BEST 3 HOUR FALL/RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN FORECAST            
AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH WIND ADVISORY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE MORE            
THAN 8 C/KM 750-950MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN WINDS              
NEAR 50 MPH BY MIDDAY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
DRY SLOT ANY DECENT CLEARING COULD SPELL POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN                  
UPGRADE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CLOUD TOPS NEAR            
M58C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT EXTEND              
OUR TSRA CHANCES ANY FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LIES                
WITH SURFACE BASED CHANCES MIDDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FROPA WITH               
FALLING TEMPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUED MENTION OF             
POTENTIAL SW NORTH WITH 1000-850MB AND 8H TEMPS SUFFICIENT TO                   
CHANGEOVER...SURFACE TEMPS/AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMS.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF ON A QUIET NOTE FOR WED WITH SURFACE               
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN              
FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING BY WED AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS REBOUNDING             
TO +2C TO +4C RANGE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY STILL BE SOME              
LINGERING LOW CLOUD IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BUT              
BOTH ETA/GFS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN               
FLOW BEGINS. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO COME BACK IN WED NIGHT WITH RETURN            
OF MOISTURE IN WAA PATTERN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE            
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE.                                      
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 00Z/7 ETA/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING             
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND             
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME            
INTERESTING FEATURES APPEARING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.              
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVING             
EAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BC. THE REMNANTS OF             
TYPHOON NANMADOL HAVE MERGED WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER               
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHWEST OVER             
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION             
OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM BY FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF                 
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO              
CARVE A TROUGH OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHILE A                 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST. BY FRIDAY ALL MEDIUM RANGE                 
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG +PNA PATTERN WITH            
RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO                   
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. 12Z/6 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SHARPER WITH THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS. AS TO BE EXPECTED...DIFFERENCES                
BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FEATURES. 00Z/7            
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH/AND WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING                  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE STRONGER              
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING                   
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AS IT CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY. BOTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING A                 
TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE AT THEIR STRONGER AND FURTHER                
SOUTH SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY               
ROUNDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.                                            
FOR NOW WILL RESPECT CONTINUITY OF GOING FORECAST UNTIL THE DETAILS             
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURS NIGHT                
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INITIALLY RAIN...THEN RA/SN...THEN ALL                
SNOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME                
POINT...BUT MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED. RATHER STRONG                 
CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ON SUNDAY. MODELS                 
AGAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE             
CWA...ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE                 
RA/SN. BEHIND THE CLIPPER BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING STRONG CAA AS A PIECE            
OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS DRAWN SOUTH. WILL              
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON WITH CHANCE POPS IN              
LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS AT KSBN TO DROP WITH ONSET OF PCPN CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST                   
CENTRAL INDIANA MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AROUND 50-60KTS. LEFT TSRA             
AT KFWA WITH BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TOWARD DAYBREAK. ADDED                
SOME DIFFERENTIATION WITH RESPECT TO FROPA LATER AT KFWA AND WITH               
BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MUCH HIGHER WINDS MIXING DOWN THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH 25KTS SUSTAINED GUST TO 35 KTS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ026>027...INZ033>034.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ006>009...INZ015>018...                    
INZ022>025...INZ032.                                                            
MI...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MIZ080>081.                              
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ015>016...OHZ024>025.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MURPHY/HITCHCOCK                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
135 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO. AN             
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDED EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WITH AN                
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO EAST             
TX. IR SAT PICS SHOW COLDER TOPS ADVECTING INTO SEMO ATTM. REG RADAR            
LOOP SHOWS 40+ DBZ MOVING INTO SEMO WITH COLDER TOPS. THE LDS CHART             
ALSO INDICATED THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDER TOPS AND HIGHER               
DBZ RETURNS.                                                                    
THE RUC INITIALIZED THE BEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z TUE                
MODEL RUN...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS WERE CLOSE AS WELL. THE RUC             
IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE NE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE               
GFS TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...DIVERGING FROM THE CONSENSUS.                 
AGAIN THEY ARE ALL IN THE BALL PARK WHERE THE SHORT TERM IS                     
CONCERNED. EVEN THOUGH THE ETA SHUNTS OFF ALL PRECIP BY 12Z THE                 
SLOWER RUC AND WETTER GFS HOLDS SOME QPF IN THE FA. WILL PROBABLY               
MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF POP THROUGH 15Z ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.                
HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MAKE A CALL CLOSER TO PRESS TIME.              
OTHERWISE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND. MOS GUIDANCE AND WINDS               
ALOFT FORECAST INDICATE DECREASING WINDS BY AFTERNOON. IN CONTRAST              
WITH THE RUC BEING A BIT SLOWER AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE            
LOW FROM ALL MODELS WILL MENTION DECREASING WINDS IN THE AFTN ATTM.             
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM NOT A LOT TO TALK ABOUT. MODELS              
STILL INDICATE LATE WEEK SYSTEMS STILL STAYING SOUTH AND NORTH OF               
THE FA. CANT ARGUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHC SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SUCCESSIVE             
RUNS MAY YIELD A SIMILAR SOLUTION AS THE PREVIOUS CHC WE HAD FOR                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
MOS GUIDANCE HAS MAJOR DISCREPANCIES FIRST PERIOD WITH NEARLY A 10              
DEGREE RANGE FOR HIGHS TODAY. THE MET HAD AROUND AN 8 DEGREE WARMUP             
FROM PREVIOUS RUN. THE MAV COOLED AROUND 5 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS                
RUN. FWC REMAINED STEADY AT 60 WHICH IS CLOSE TO CURRENT GRIDS.                 
HOWEVER...WILL TWEAK A LITTLE BIT WARMER TO FOLLOW TREND OF THE                 
WARMER MAV AND MET. AFTER THE FIRST PERIOD MAV AND MET COME INTO                
RSNBL AGREEMENT BUT THE FWC STAYS A BIT COOLER. THUS WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD THE MET/MAV SOLUTION AS THEY REFLECT CURRENT GRIDS BEST.                 
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
348 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCREAMING MESSAGE ON THIS DAY IS REVEALED ON FOG DERIVED IMAGERY WITH           
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ESTABLISHED AND BECOMING MORE SO...BELOW                  
FAIRLY FORMIDIBLE INVERSION BASED ON 00Z RAOBS.  TROUGHING WITH MORE            
GENERAL LIFT NOW E OF CWA...ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF STG LOW                    
PRESSURE IN MO INTO IL...WITH WK INVERTED TROUGH POKING NWWRD TO                
JUST E OF CWA...COLLAPSING SOMEWHAT SWRD AS CYCLONE DEEPENS.  MAIN              
ISSUE IN SHORT TERM IS NOT WX...BUT RATHER PROPER DECREASE IN                   
CLDS...AND THEN DEALING WITH NUMEROUS NON DIURNAL ELEMENTS TO                   
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                                                           
TODAY...CLOUDS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION THRU                 
MORNING AS LOW LVL CAA CONTINUES UNDER STRONG INVERSION. CAA GROSSLY            
OVERESTIMATED ON 00Z RUNS IF HANGING UP TMPS ARE INDICATION...AND               
LIKE RUC IDEA.  DESPITE THIS...INDICATIONS OF CAA REMAIN WITH NLY               
LOWEST LVL FLOW COMPONENT THRU MIDDAY OVER ERN 2/3 OF CWA. THIS WL              
YIELD A SEMI NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR DAY AND FOR MUCH OF              
DAY MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO BE AS WARM AS CURRENT OBS. LIMITED RECOVERY           
EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON...ESPLY WHERE LOW LVL CLEARING PUSHES           
INTO W...TIMED OUT WITH GRADIENT IN 950-925 HPA OISTURE...AND CLOSE             
TO WHERE BETTER SWLY FLUSHING GRADIENT...AS SHUD OT BE ABLE TO MIX              
OUT CLDS WELL DUE TO INITIAL THICKNESS. WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG           
ON WRN FLANK OF CLDS LTR THIS MORNING IN HIER TERRAIN OF SWRN CWA.              
TONIGHT...WL WATCH CLEARING CONTINUE TO WORK NEWRD WITH                         
STRENGTHENING LOW LVL FLOW.  WITH LACK OF MIXING AND INVERSION...               
WL HAVE RUNNING START TOWARD POTENTIAL FOG REDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...            
SFC GRADIENT WL BE INCREASING...AND MOISTURE REALLY DOES BECOME                 
QUITE SHALLOW. MOISTURE AMT DECREASES WITH HT...SO MAY BE MORE OF A             
3-5BR...MOST LKLY IN UPSLOPE ERN AREAS IF AT ALL. WL HAVE PLENTY OF             
HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL TO SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
LEADING HIGH CLDS WL LIMIT EARLY INSOLATION E WED...BUT SHUD END UP             
BEING FAIRLY DECENT MIXING DAY WITH TROUGH PASSAGE COOLING TMPS A               
BIT ALFT. FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE 925 HPA MIXING WOULD PUSH WARMING A               
BIT MORE EWRD THAN FORMER FCST...AND WL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES UP ALG             
I29 CORRIDOR.                                                                   
WED NIGHT...WARMS MERRILY AWAY ALFT...WL HAVE ISSUES WITH WK FLOW               
INITIALLY HELPING TO SET UP STG ELEVATION DECOUPLING...AND WL FIT               
WIND AND TMPS TO THIS IDEA...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING TO OCCUR LTR             
IN NIGHT AS WARMING TMPS ALFT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLDS.                   
SLNS BECOME FAIRLY DISPARATE BY WED NIGHT AND THU DEALING WITH                  
TROUGH DIVING INTO NRN PLAINS...AND EFFECTS ARE SIGNIFICANT ON WINDS            
WED NIGHT...AND HOW MUCH IT MIGHT SATURATE. DESPITE DESERT                      
ETA...DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW CHC POPS FOR FIRST HALF OF THU ACRS SWRN            
MN WITH WAA AND DECENT TROP IMPULSE OVERLAPPING.  PS APPEAR TO WARM             
TOO MUCH TO ALLOW FOR ANY FROZEN PCPN...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH IF SFC            
TMPS DO NOT RESPOND FAST ENOUGH TO BRING ABV FREEZING. WL BE GREAT              
MIXING DAY...AND PUSHED TMPS TO MIDWAY 925-850 HPA POTENTIALS.                  
BY FAR BEST COUPLING OF DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF AREA BY AFTN AND EVNG.           
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED RANGE...BUT SUPPORT IN ECMWF/GFS FOR               
WARM TMPS SAT...WL KEEP AT LEAST AS WARM...ESPLY W.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW STRATUS CONTS TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CEILING GENERALLY               
AOB 1500FT. PATCHY FOG ALSO PREVAIL WITH VSBY GENERALLY 2 TO 5                  
MILES. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS                
HELPING TO BREAK IT UP. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE BREAKING UP IN HON AREA              
AROUND 18Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM WEST. HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS IN FSD           
AND SUX AREAS WILL NOT BE BREAKING UP UNTIL 22Z TO 00Z AS THE DRIER             
MOVES IN.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN/WB                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
645 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING. LIFR CIGS AHEAD             
OF WARM FRONT AT FWA AND SBN TO START THEN MIXING OUT INTO MVFR WITH            
WINDS INCREASING. IMPRESSIVE FALL/RISE COUPLET WITH DEEPENING                   
SYSTEM...AND WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE WITH               
25G35KT AT FWA. SOME CHANCE OF MIDDAY TSRA AT FWA WITH FROPA HOWEVER            
WITH CHANCES LOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD ETA SOLUTION FROM 24              
HOURS AGO AND ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH             
DETAILED FORECAST ULTIMATELY WILL LOOK TO ETA/ETA12/RUC FOR                     
GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CUTOFF AND DEEPEN OVER 100M/12                 
HOURS TODAY AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH REFLECTION FOUND IN 999 MB                
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST               
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 990MB ACROSS LAKE HURON              
THIS EVENING. BEST 3 HOUR FALL/RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN FORECAST            
AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH WIND ADVISORY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE MORE            
THAN 8 C/KM 750-950MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN WINDS              
NEAR 50 MPH BY MIDDAY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
DRY SLOT ANY DECENT CLEARING COULD SPELL POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN                  
UPGRADE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CLOUD TOPS NEAR            
M58C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT EXTEND              
OUR TSRA CHANCES ANY FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LIES                
WITH SURFACE BASED CHANCES MIDDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FROPA WITH               
FALLING TEMPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUED MENTION OF             
POTENTIAL SW NORTH WITH 1000-850MB AND 8H TEMPS SUFFICIENT TO                   
CHANGEOVER...SURFACE TEMPS/AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMS.                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF ON A QUIET NOTE FOR WED WITH SURFACE               
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN              
FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING BY WED AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS REBOUNDING             
TO +2C TO +4C RANGE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY STILL BE SOME              
LINGERING LOW CLOUD IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BUT              
BOTH ETA/GFS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN               
FLOW BEGINS. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO COME BACK IN WED NIGHT WITH RETURN            
OF MOISTURE IN WAA PATTERN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE            
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE.                                      
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 00Z/7 ETA/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING             
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND             
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME            
INTERESTING FEATURES APPEARING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.              
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVING             
EAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BC. THE REMNANTS OF             
TYPHOON NANMADOL HAVE MERGED WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER               
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHWEST OVER             
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION             
OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM BY FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF                 
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO              
CARVE A TROUGH OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHILE A                 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST. BY FRIDAY ALL MEDIUM RANGE                 
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG +PNA PATTERN WITH            
RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO                   
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. 12Z/6 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SHARPER WITH THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS. AS TO BE EXPECTED...DIFFERENCES                
BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FEATURES. 00Z/7            
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH/AND WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING                  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE STRONGER              
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING                   
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AS IT CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY. BOTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING A                 
TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE AT THEIR STRONGER AND FURTHER                
SOUTH SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY               
ROUNDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.                                            
FOR NOW WILL RESPECT CONTINUITY OF GOING FORECAST UNTIL THE DETAILS             
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURS NIGHT                
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INITIALLY RAIN...THEN RA/SN...THEN ALL                
SNOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME                
POINT...BUT MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED. RATHER STRONG                 
CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ON SUNDAY. MODELS                 
AGAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE             
CWA...ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE                 
RA/SN. BEHIND THE CLIPPER BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING STRONG CAA AS A PIECE            
OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS DRAWN SOUTH. WILL              
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON WITH CHANCE POPS IN              
LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ026>027...INZ033>034.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ006>009...INZ015>018...                    
INZ022>025...INZ032.                                                            
MI...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MIZ080>081.                              
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ015>016...OHZ024>025.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MURPHY/HITCHCOCK                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1041 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...DEEPENING 993MB SURFACE LOW WAS LIFTING NE INTO FAR SW            
LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF            
LOW. THIS WAS RAIN IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND A MIX OF JUST ABOUT               
EVERYTHING IN EASTERN UPPER. HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT IS JUST            
GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE SW...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE AS THE                
COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MI. PRECIP TYPE AND                 
AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING.                                                                        
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON.             
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIP IS MAINLY ISENTROPIC LIFT (295K)                     
EARLY...WITH 700-500MB DEFORMATION BECOMING A KEY PLAYER LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS 500MB WAVE/COMMA HEAD MOVES THRU. WILL            
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.                                       
06Z/12Z ETA/RUC RUNS ARE WARMER...AND STAY WARMER LONGER...THAN THE             
00Z RUNS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS...WITH SOO ONTARIO                   
REPORTING FZRA AND SLEET...AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF FZRA IN CHIPPEWA              
COUNTY. ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS THUR 21Z SUPPORT SNOW MIXING IN ONLY IN NW            
CHIP...WHERE 900MB TEMPS ONLY REACH +1C. ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN             
UPPER...OBS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT FILRY ESTABLISHING            
ITSELF...WITH 900MB TEMPS OF +2C OR HIGHER AND A 75MB DEEP MELTING              
LAYER. AND WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S (AND IN THE TEENS                   
UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO)...THAT MEANS MAINLY FZRA. QPF FORECASTS ARE IN             
EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH EAST OF I-75...AND THUS WILL UP HEADLINE TO            
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CHIP. MORE RAIN AND LESS PRECIP TO THE                 
SW...SO MACKINAC CAN STAY AS AN ADIVSORY...THOUGH FAR NE PARTS OF               
MACKINAC WILL PROBABLY SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF FZRA.                       
WILL ALSO BACK OFF A BIT ON CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHERN LOWER MI             
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL                
AROUND DUSK.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 334 AM TUE DEC 7...                                     
LINGERING DEFORMATION PRECIP WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD                  
MIDNIGHT...AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD                  
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING.  WOULD NOT             
ANTICIPATE MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER 00Z... PROBABLY              
AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF M-72.  DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS             
IN SYSTEM'S WAKE...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END                  
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT...850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND                 
-6/-7C BY MORNING.  INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 850-875MB BUT STILL              
BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  SO ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE            
LIGHT AND SHALLOW...AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY CONFINE THIS TO AREAS                 
AROUND WHITEFISH BAY THOUGH COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN               
LOWER OVERNIGHT.  MARINE...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL GET WINDS             
CRANKING AGAIN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TO START DAY...EVENTUALLY                
COMING AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.  WILL NEED AT LEAST SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...AND GALE WARNINGS ON               
THE LAKE HURON SIDE AND THROUGH THE STRAITS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY              
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.                                                  
WEDNESDAY...WILL LINGER A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND                
WHITEFISH BAY AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING THE MORNING...                
OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER            
GIVING WAY TO SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON.  NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES             
WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT                 
PRECIP ATTM LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF M-72 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE FORECAST            
TO OCCUR (MID LEVELS REMAIN DRIER FARTHER SOUTH).  MARINE...OTHER               
THAN PERHAPS EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE WHERE THERE MAY            
BE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING HEADLINE               
CRITERIA WINDS AS NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM                    
NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.                   
THURSDAY AND EXTENDED PERIODS...DID PULL POPS FROM THURSDAY WITH                
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.  WILL KEEP              
AN EYE ON FRIDAY'S SYSTEM...FORECAST THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIXED BAG            
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS              
EASTERN UPPER. WON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FRIDAY AT THIS POINT WITH              
GUIDANCE IN A STATE OF FLUX REGARDING SYSTEM EVOLUTION.                         
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING...                    
        THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ008.                                              
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ015.                     
       GALE WARNING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LHZ345>349.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
827 AM CST TUE DEC  7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CROSSED THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION WITH ONLY                
LIGHT DRIZZLE AT BEST. EARLY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CLEARING LINE            
IS NOT PROGRESSING EASTWARD ATTM WHICH COULD KEEP SKIES IN THE LOWER            
VALLEY FROM CLEARING BEFORE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INITIALLY THICKER              
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CAA, WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BUOY 020 REPORTS SWELLS NEAR 6 FEET AND NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25                 
KNOTS.  RUC MSL FIELDS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE SOME SURFACE                    
TROFFING EVIDENT JUST OFFSHORE ALONG THE OLD FRONT WHICH WILL                   
MAINTAIN A PRETTY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS                
COASTLINE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.  ACROSS THE BAY WATERS...MTRPIL               
REPORTS A NORTH WIND NEAR 13 KNOTS AND MAV AND MET PIL GUIDANCE                 
KEEPS OVERALL WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.  SO WILL                 
MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL MENTION SMALL            
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BAY WATERS.  CURRENT OVERALL CWF              
WORDING LOOKS OK.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE STEADILY IMPROVING AROUND THE LOWER               
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS MORNING AS DRIER LOWER LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO            
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA ARE                
CLEAR AT THE MOMENT WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS LOCATED AT THE BRO                 
AIRPORT.  DESPITE THE UPWARD TREND...THE REDUCED CEILINGS WILL                  
LIKELY HOLD ON AROUND THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY               
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON.  WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAF FORECAST                   
WORDING MAINLY FOR CEILING TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST TRENDS LOOK            
OK FOR THE MOMENT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
64/60                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1235 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH               
COLD FRONT TO PASS KFWA NEAR START OF TAF PERIOD. WRAP AROUND LOW               
CLOUDS WILL WORK ACROSS TERMINALS FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH SOME               
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AS WELL IN NW FLOW BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR               
ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW PULLS AWAY AND RIDGEING MOVES IN FOR LATER                 
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AT                
BOTH TERMINALS AS DRYER AIR WORKS IN AN WILL CONTINUE INTO                      
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC LOW HEADING INTO SRN MI WITH COLD FRONT INTO WRN IN AND HEADING             
QUICKLY EAST. BULK OF RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF CWA NEXT HOUR            
WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN IN BACKLASH. WINDS AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD FROM               
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW. CONCERNED MAX WINDS MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN            
REACHED WITH MOST LOCATIONS JUST UNDER TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.               
MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD ETA SOLUTION FROM 24              
HOURS AGO AND ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH             
DETAILED FORECAST ULTIMATELY WILL LOOK TO ETA/ETA12/RUC FOR                     
GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CUTOFF AND DEEPEN OVER 100M/12                 
HOURS TODAY AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH REFLECTION FOUND IN 999 MB                
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST               
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 990MB ACROSS LAKE HURON              
THIS EVENING. BEST 3 HOUR FALL/RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN FORECAST            
AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH WIND ADVISORY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE MORE            
THAN 8 C/KM 750-950MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN WINDS              
NEAR 50 MPH BY MIDDAY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
DRY SLOT ANY DECENT CLEARING COULD SPELL POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN                  
UPGRADE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CLOUD TOPS NEAR            
M58C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT EXTEND              
OUR TSRA CHANCES ANY FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LIES                
WITH SURFACE BASED CHANCES MIDDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FROPA WITH               
FALLING TEMPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUED MENTION OF             
POTENTIAL SW NORTH WITH 1000-850MB AND 8H TEMPS SUFFICIENT TO                   
CHANGEOVER...SURFACE TEMPS/AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMS.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF ON A QUIET NOTE FOR WED WITH SURFACE               
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN              
FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING BY WED AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS REBOUNDING             
TO +2C TO +4C RANGE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY STILL BE SOME              
LINGERING LOW CLOUD IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BUT              
BOTH ETA/GFS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN               
FLOW BEGINS. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO COME BACK IN WED NIGHT WITH RETURN            
OF MOISTURE IN WAA PATTERN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE            
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE.                                      
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 00Z/7 ETA/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING             
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND             
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME            
INTERESTING FEATURES APPEARING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.              
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVING             
EAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BC. THE REMNANTS OF             
TYPHOON NANMADOL HAVE MERGED WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER               
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHWEST OVER             
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION             
OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM BY FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF                 
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO              
CARVE A TROUGH OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHILE A                 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST. BY FRIDAY ALL MEDIUM RANGE                 
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG +PNA PATTERN WITH            
RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO                   
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. 12Z/6 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SHARPER WITH THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS. AS TO BE EXPECTED...DIFFERENCES                
BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FEATURES. 00Z/7            
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH/AND WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING                  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE STRONGER              
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING                   
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AS IT CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY. BOTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING A                 
TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE AT THEIR STRONGER AND FURTHER                
SOUTH SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY               
ROUNDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.                                            
FOR NOW WILL RESPECT CONTINUITY OF GOING FORECAST UNTIL THE DETAILS             
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURS NIGHT                
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INITIALLY RAIN...THEN RA/SN...THEN ALL                
SNOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME                
POINT...BUT MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED. RATHER STRONG                 
CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ON SUNDAY. MODELS                 
AGAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE             
CWA...ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE                 
RA/SN. BEHIND THE CLIPPER BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING STRONG CAA AS A PIECE            
OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS DRAWN SOUTH. WILL              
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON WITH CHANCE POPS IN              
LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ026>027...INZ033>034.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ006>009...INZ015>018...                    
INZ022>025...INZ032.                                                            
MI...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MIZ080>081.                              
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ015>016...OHZ024>025.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1145 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SFC LOW HEADING INTO SRN MI WITH COLD FRONT INTO WRN IN AND HEADING             
QUICKLY EAST. BULK OF RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF CWA NEXT HOUR            
WITH ONLY SPOTTY RAIN IN BACKLASH. WINDS AND TEMPS LOOK GOOD FROM               
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW. CONCERNED MAX WINDS MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN            
REACHED WITH MOST LOCATIONS JUST UNDER TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA.               
MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL ADVISORY WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE LOW MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING. LIFR CIGS AHEAD             
OF WARM FRONT AT FWA AND SBN TO START THEN MIXING OUT INTO MVFR WITH            
WINDS INCREASING. IMPRESSIVE FALL/RISE COUPLET WITH DEEPENING                   
SYSTEM...AND WITH BETTER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE WITH               
25G35KT AT FWA. SOME CHANCE OF MIDDAY TSRA AT FWA WITH FROPA HOWEVER            
WITH CHANCES LOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD ETA SOLUTION FROM 24              
HOURS AGO AND ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM. WITH HIGH             
DETAILED FORECAST ULTIMATELY WILL LOOK TO ETA/ETA12/RUC FOR                     
GUIDANCE. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CUTOFF AND DEEPEN OVER 100M/12                 
HOURS TODAY AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTH REFLECTION FOUND IN 999 MB                
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST               
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 990MB ACROSS LAKE HURON              
THIS EVENING. BEST 3 HOUR FALL/RISE ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN FORECAST            
AREA AND HAVE GONE WITH WIND ADVISORY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE MORE            
THAN 8 C/KM 750-950MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN WINDS              
NEAR 50 MPH BY MIDDAY FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND              
DRY SLOT ANY DECENT CLEARING COULD SPELL POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN                  
UPGRADE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. FOR THIS MORNING THOUGH CLOUD TOPS NEAR            
M58C MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WILL NOT EXTEND              
OUR TSRA CHANCES ANY FURTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LIES                
WITH SURFACE BASED CHANCES MIDDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FROPA WITH               
FALLING TEMPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUED MENTION OF             
POTENTIAL SW NORTH WITH 1000-850MB AND 8H TEMPS SUFFICIENT TO                   
CHANGEOVER...SURFACE TEMPS/AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT ALLOW ANY ACCUMS.                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                                        
THE LONG TERM WILL START OFF ON A QUIET NOTE FOR WED WITH SURFACE               
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN              
FLOW ALREADY BEGINNING BY WED AFTERNOON WITH 925MB TEMPS REBOUNDING             
TO +2C TO +4C RANGE SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 40S. MAY STILL BE SOME              
LINGERING LOW CLOUD IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST BUT              
BOTH ETA/GFS SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE SOUTHERLY RETURN               
FLOW BEGINS. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO COME BACK IN WED NIGHT WITH RETURN            
OF MOISTURE IN WAA PATTERN AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING UP THE            
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE.                                      
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH               
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. 00Z/7 ETA/GFS CONTINUE THE TREND OF KEEPING             
THE BEST DYNAMICS AND DEEP MOISTURE WEST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND             
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME            
INTERESTING FEATURES APPEARING IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE.              
POWERFUL PACIFIC JET SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVING             
EAST TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BC. THE REMNANTS OF             
TYPHOON NANMADOL HAVE MERGED WITH A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER               
THE ALEUTIANS. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL TURN THE FLOW SOUTHWEST OVER             
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION             
OF THE FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM BY FRIDAY. A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF                 
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO              
CARVE A TROUGH OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY WHILE A                 
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEST. BY FRIDAY ALL MEDIUM RANGE                 
GUIDANCE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STRONG +PNA PATTERN WITH            
RIDGE CRESTING OVER THE WEST AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO                   
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. 12Z/6 ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SHARPER WITH THE                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAN THE GFS. AS TO BE EXPECTED...DIFFERENCES                
BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO SURFACE FEATURES. 00Z/7            
GFS IS FASTER/FURTHER NORTH/AND WEAKER WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING                  
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE STRONGER              
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ECMWF BEING                   
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AS IT CLOSES OFF A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO              
VALLEY. BOTH ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM APPEAR TO BE REDEVELOPING A                 
TRIPLE POINT SURFACE LOW TO ARRIVE AT THEIR STRONGER AND FURTHER                
SOUTH SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY               
ROUNDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.                                            
FOR NOW WILL RESPECT CONTINUITY OF GOING FORECAST UNTIL THE DETAILS             
CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THURS NIGHT                
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INITIALLY RAIN...THEN RA/SN...THEN ALL                
SNOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT SOME                
POINT...BUT MANY QUESTIONS REMAIN TO BE ANSWERED. RATHER STRONG                 
CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW ON SUNDAY. MODELS                 
AGAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE             
CWA...ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE                 
RA/SN. BEHIND THE CLIPPER BOTH GFS/ECMWF BRING STRONG CAA AS A PIECE            
OF THE VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER NORTHERN CANADA IS DRAWN SOUTH. WILL              
CONTINUE TREND OF GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MON WITH CHANCE POPS IN              
LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ026>027...INZ033>034.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES INZ006>009...INZ015>018...                    
INZ022>025...INZ032.                                                            
MI...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MIZ080>081.                              
OH...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ015>016...OHZ024>025.                 
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES OHZ001>002...OHZ004>005.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1250 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE SOUTH...              
GIVEN RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR CADILLAC. THIS IS HAPPENING IN              
AREA OF CONVECTIVE-LOOKING CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE...AND WITH ETA               
SHOWING STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 800MB. THIS WILL BE VERY BRIEF...BY             
21Z WE/RE COOLING OFF IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND INSTABILITY IS GONE.            
EARLIER DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                   
DEEPENING 993MB SURFACE LOW WAS LIFTING NE INTO FAR SW                          
LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF            
LOW. THIS WAS RAIN IN NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND A MIX OF JUST ABOUT               
EVERYTHING IN EASTERN UPPER. HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT IS JUST            
GETTING UNDERWAY IN THE SW...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE AS THE                
COMMA HEAD OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS LOWER MI. PRECIP TYPE AND                 
AMOUNTS ARE OF COURSE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING.                                                                        
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE NE TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON.             
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR PRECIP IS MAINLY ISENTROPIC LIFT (295K)                     
EARLY...WITH 700-500MB DEFORMATION BECOMING A KEY PLAYER LATE THIS              
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS 500MB WAVE/COMMA HEAD MOVES THRU. WILL            
OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS.                                       
06Z/12Z ETA/RUC RUNS ARE WARMER...AND STAY WARMER LONGER...THAN THE             
00Z RUNS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBS...WITH SOO ONTARIO                   
REPORTING FZRA AND SLEET...AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF FZRA IN CHIPPEWA              
COUNTY. ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS THUR 21Z SUPPORT SNOW MIXING IN ONLY IN NW            
CHIP...WHERE 900MB TEMPS ONLY REACH +1C. ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN             
UPPER...OBS/SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT FILRY ESTABLISHING            
ITSELF...WITH 900MB TEMPS OF +2C OR HIGHER AND A 75MB DEEP MELTING              
LAYER. AND WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S (AND IN THE TEENS                   
UPSTREAM IN ONTARIO)...THAT MEANS MAINLY FZRA. QPF FORECASTS ARE IN             
EXCESS OF A QUARTER INCH EAST OF I-75...AND THUS WILL UP HEADLINE TO            
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR CHIP. MORE RAIN AND LESS PRECIP TO THE                 
SW...SO MACKINAC CAN STAY AS AN ADIVSORY...THOUGH FAR NE PARTS OF               
MACKINAC WILL PROBABLY SEE AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF FZRA.                       
WILL ALSO BACK OFF A BIT ON CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN NORTHERN LOWER MI             
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WON/T HAPPEN UNTIL                
AROUND DUSK.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 334 AM TUE DEC 7...                                     
LINGERING DEFORMATION PRECIP WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD                  
MIDNIGHT...AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTH REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD                  
GRADUALLY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE EVENING.  WOULD NOT             
ANTICIPATE MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AFTER 00Z... PROBABLY              
AROUND AN INCH OR SO NORTH OF M-72.  DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS             
IN SYSTEM'S WAKE...SO MUCH OF THE PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END                  
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  OVERNIGHT...850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND                 
-6/-7C BY MORNING.  INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMB TO 850-875MB BUT STILL              
BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  SO ANY LAKE EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE            
LIGHT AND SHALLOW...AND FOR NOW WILL ONLY CONFINE THIS TO AREAS                 
AROUND WHITEFISH BAY THOUGH COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN               
LOWER OVERNIGHT.  MARINE...STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL GET WINDS             
CRANKING AGAIN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST TO START DAY...EVENTUALLY                
COMING AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY EVENING.  WILL NEED AT LEAST SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN SIDE...AND GALE WARNINGS ON               
THE LAKE HURON SIDE AND THROUGH THE STRAITS.  WINDS WILL GRADUALLY              
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.                                                  
WEDNESDAY...WILL LINGER A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND                
WHITEFISH BAY AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER DURING THE MORNING...                
OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH SOME MORNING CLOUD COVER            
GIVING WAY TO SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON.  NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE SERIES             
WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT                 
PRECIP ATTM LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF M-72 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE FORECAST            
TO OCCUR (MID LEVELS REMAIN DRIER FARTHER SOUTH).  MARINE...OTHER               
THAN PERHAPS EARLY IN THE DAY ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE WHERE THERE MAY            
BE SOME LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...NOT EXPECTING HEADLINE               
CRITERIA WINDS AS NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS              
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM                    
NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.                   
THURSDAY AND EXTENDED PERIODS...DID PULL POPS FROM THURSDAY WITH                
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.  WILL KEEP              
AN EYE ON FRIDAY'S SYSTEM...FORECAST THICKNESSES SUGGEST A MIXED BAG            
OF PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...WITH MAINLY SNOW ACROSS              
EASTERN UPPER. WON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FRIDAY AT THIS POINT WITH              
GUIDANCE IN A STATE OF FLUX REGARDING SYSTEM EVOLUTION.                         
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING...                    
        THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ008.                                              
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...MIZ015.                     
       GALE WARNING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT...LHZ345>349.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1210 PM EST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAIN/MINOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON. 88D STORM             
TOTAL PCPN PRODUCT IS INDICATING THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN               
HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN A BAND FROM WHITEHALL TO BIG RAPIDS. THIS IS              
THE AREA OF BEST MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING AND DEFORMATION. WE HAVE                
BEEN UNABLE TO FIND ANY GROUND TRUTH TO THIS ESTIMATION... AND WOULD            
ATTRIBUTE THE EXAGGERATED AMOUNTS TO RADAR BRIGHT-BANDING. THE                  
MELTING LEVEL IS AROUND 6K FEET... AND 6K FEET IS ABOUT WHERE THE               
RADAR BEAM IS AT FROM WHITEHALL TO BIG RAPIDS. BOTTOM LINE...THERE              
IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE                  
CWFA... BUT NOT AS MUCH AS OUR STORM TOTAL PCPN PRODUCT INDICATES.              
MODELS SHOW BEST FGEN FORCING LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THIS                       
AFTERNOON... SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN MINOR NUISANCE               
FLOODING. SOME RISES IN THE RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED... AND THAT WAS              
ADDRESSED EARLIER IN A HYDROLOGIC/RIVER STATEMENT (RVSGRR).                     
THE SURFACE LOW IS NEAR AZO ATTM AT 992 MB...AND LATEST RUC HAS IT              
DEEPENING TO 988 AS IT MOVES NE. STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WIND GUSTS             
WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SE CORNER OF THE CWFA WHERE              
DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR. IT WILL BE VERY                   
CLOSE...BUT WILL LET THIS BE HANDLED IN THE HWO. ANY CONVECTION MAY             
ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS.                              
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEW                   
BUFFALO TO MANISTEE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1145 AM CST TUE DEC 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE TO SKY COVER AND TEMPS FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AS WARM FRONT                 
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SD. THINK MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE LOW LEVEL DRYING            
IN THIS RATHER SLOW MOVING PATTERN...BUT THINK ONCE LOW GET                     
ORGANIZED ACROSS WESTERN SD EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WARM FRONT WILL                
SURGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH TO CLEAR OUT EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA BEFORE                
CLEARING CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD IN              
THE EAST WHERE STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND TEMPS ARE SLOW TO               
CLIMB...BUT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE A DRAMATIC WARMUP IN THE WEST AND              
KNOCKED ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF GOING HIGHS...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT TO               
OPTIMISTIC.                                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SCREAMING MESSAGE ON THIS DAY IS REVEALED ON FOG DERIVED IMAGERY WITH           
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ESTABLISHED AND BECOMING MORE SO...BELOW                  
FAIRLY FORMIDIBLE INVERSION BASED ON 00Z RAOBS.  TROUGHING WITH MORE            
GENERAL LIFT NOW E OF CWA...ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF STG LOW                    
PRESSURE IN MO INTO IL...WITH WK INVERTED TROUGH POKING NWWRD TO                
JUST E OF CWA...COLLAPSING SOMEWHAT SWRD AS CYCLONE DEEPENS.  MAIN              
ISSUE IN SHORT TERM IS NOT WX...BUT RATHER PROPER DECREASE IN                   
CLDS...AND THEN DEALING WITH NUMEROUS NON DIURNAL ELEMENTS TO                   
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                                                           
TODAY...CLOUDS SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY SIGNIFICANT INSOLATION THRU                 
MORNING AS LOW LVL CAA CONTINUES UNDER STRONG INVERSION. CAA GROSSLY            
OVERESTIMATED ON 00Z RUNS IF HANGING UP TMPS ARE INDICATION...AND               
LIKE RUC IDEA.  DESPITE THIS...INDICATIONS OF CAA REMAIN WITH NLY               
LOWEST LVL FLOW COMPONENT THRU MIDDAY OVER ERN 2/3 OF CWA. THIS WL              
YIELD A SEMI NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE FOR DAY AND FOR MUCH OF              
DAY MAY FIND DIFFICULT TO BE AS WARM AS CURRENT OBS. LIMITED RECOVERY           
EXPECTED ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON...ESPLY WHERE LOW LVL CLEARING PUSHES           
INTO W...TIMED OUT WITH GRADIENT IN 950-925 HPA OISTURE...AND CLOSE             
TO WHERE BETTER SWLY FLUSHING GRADIENT...AS SHUD OT BE ABLE TO MIX              
OUT CLDS WELL DUE TO INITIAL THICKNESS. WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG           
ON WRN FLANK OF CLDS LTR THIS MORNING IN HIER TERRAIN OF SWRN CWA.              
TONIGHT...WL WATCH CLEARING CONTINUE TO WORK NEWRD WITH                         
STRENGTHENING LOW LVL FLOW.  WITH LACK OF MIXING AND INVERSION...               
WL HAVE RUNNING START TOWARD POTENTIAL FOG REDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...            
SFC GRADIENT WL BE INCREASING...AND MOISTURE REALLY DOES BECOME                 
QUITE SHALLOW. MOISTURE AMT DECREASES WITH HT...SO MAY BE MORE OF A             
3-5BR...MOST LKLY IN UPSLOPE ERN AREAS IF AT ALL. WL HAVE PLENTY OF             
HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL TO SLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                
LEADING HIGH CLDS WL LIMIT EARLY INSOLATION E WED...BUT SHUD END UP             
BEING FAIRLY DECENT MIXING DAY WITH TROUGH PASSAGE COOLING TMPS A               
BIT ALFT. FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE 925 HPA MIXING WOULD PUSH WARMING A               
BIT MORE EWRD THAN FORMER FCST...AND WL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES UP ALG             
I29 CORRIDOR.                                                                   
WED NIGHT...WARMS MERRILY AWAY ALFT...WL HAVE ISSUES WITH WK FLOW               
INITIALLY HELPING TO SET UP STG ELEVATION DECOUPLING...AND WL FIT               
WIND AND TMPS TO THIS IDEA...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMING TO OCCUR LTR             
IN NIGHT AS WARMING TMPS ALFT...INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLDS.                   
SLNS BECOME FAIRLY DISPARATE BY WED NIGHT AND THU DEALING WITH                  
TROUGH DIVING INTO NRN PLAINS...AND EFFECTS ARE SIGNIFICANT ON WINDS            
WED NIGHT...AND HOW MUCH IT MIGHT SATURATE. DESPITE DESERT                      
ETA...DECIDED TO ADD IN LOW CHC POPS FOR FIRST HALF OF THU ACRS SWRN            
MN WITH WAA AND DECENT TROP IMPULSE OVERLAPPING.  PS APPEAR TO WARM             
TOO MUCH TO ALLOW FOR ANY FROZEN PCPN...BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH IF SFC            
TMPS DO NOT RESPOND FAST ENOUGH TO BRING ABV FREEZING. WL BE GREAT              
MIXING DAY...AND PUSHED TMPS TO MIDWAY 925-850 HPA POTENTIALS.                  
BY FAR BEST COUPLING OF DYNAMICS WL BE EAST OF AREA BY AFTN AND EVNG.           
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENDED RANGE...BUT SUPPORT IN ECMWF/GFS FOR               
WARM TMPS SAT...WL KEEP AT LEAST AS WARM...ESPLY W.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LO CLDS WILL HAVE A HARD DTIME GOING OUT IN DECRG LO LVL FLOW. HEATG            
THIS AFTN WILL ERODE CLDS SWRN CWA BUT NOT UP TO TAF AREA. WILL HAVE            
TO WAIT FOR MIXG LATR TNGT...AND THIS LOOKS FORCEFUL ENUF TO CLR                
SKIES LATE TNGT MAINLY 06Z-12Z IN HON\FSD\SUX AREA. EXPCT MVFR BR OF            
3 TO E MI AT HON TO IMPRV BY 20Z.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM/WILLIAMS                                                                    
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