####018003227####
FXUS64 KEWX 150526
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.AVIATION...
MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED BY
17-19Z. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID-
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009/ 

UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD POPS AND REMOVE THUNDER
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND 00Z NAM12 DATA. ALSO INCREASED 1ST
PERIOD MIN TEMPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 1-5
DEGREES GIVEN VERY LITTLE RADIATION COOLING WITH LOW CIGS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. 


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...CONTINUED CAA PATTERN TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY DRY AND 
DECREASE CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING IN
THIS SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY YET
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE AN AREA OF SHALLOW GULF OVERRUN. AS A POLAR
JET DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA TOMORROW..
SURGES OF COOL DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION..WITH CONTINUED
OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS. BRIEF CLEARING
TOMORROW EVENING AS DRY CAA CONTINUES..THEN INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE AGAIN BEGINS TO OVERRUN.
MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS AN
INCREASINGLY OVERRUNNING PATTERN SETS UP. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS TUESDAY..A DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WEST TEXAS..THUS
WARMING WILL BEGIN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
CLEARING AND MILD THURSDAY IN THE DRY PACIFIC AIRMASS. CONTINUED
MOSTLY FAIR AND MILD FRIDAY UNDER A STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              46  64  46  60  49 /  30  -   -   10  50 
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  49  65  43  60  47 /  30  -   -   10  50 
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     49  65  48  60  49 /  20  -   -   10  50 
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            39  62  45  59  47 /  20  -   -   20  40 
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           46  73  52  59  51 /  -   -   10  20  20 
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        43  63  43  59  48 /  30  -   -   20  40 
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             46  69  50  60  48 /  10  10  10  10  30 
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        49  66  46  60  50 /  30  -   -   10  50 
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   51  67  46  60  52 /  40  10  -   10  40 
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       48  66  48  60  50 /  20  10  10  10  40 
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           49  68  49  60  49 /  20  10  10  20  40 

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

11/25/JB


####018005048####
FXUS61 KALY 150526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. ALOFT A 
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH FAST FLOW. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL 
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
WILL MOVE OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OUT THE
PLAINS SUNDAY AND MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. NO IMPACTS TO 
OUR AREA. IN ITS WAKE...RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT MAINTAINING OUR 
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN FLATTEN 
AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. AT THE 
SURFACE...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFFSHORE RESULTING IN A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.  LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY 
MORNING WILL BE CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING.  GFS TEMP AT 925 MB AND 850 MB BRINGS THE 
ZERO DEGREE LINE UP TO AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION WED NIGHT...BUT BY 
700 IT IS WELL BELOW FREEZING SOUTH TO NEW JERSEY...SO IT APPEARS A 
GOOD BET FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET...WITH FREEZING RAIN 
SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY ATTM FROM ABOUT THE CAPITAL REGION ON SOUTH AND 
EAST.  IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...IT LOOKS LIKE 
MAINLY SNOW.

THE ECMWF HAS THE WARM LAYER FURTHER SOUTH...FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE 
SURFACE AND FOR A BRIEFER PERIOD...WHICH WOULD IMPLY ANY SIGNIFICANT 
SLEET BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR ZONES.  FOR NOW...IT 
BEING STILL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HAVE WORDED IT IN TERMS OF RAIN 
AND SNOW.  IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIP SHOULD END AS A PERIOD OF 
SNOW AS THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THE DEPARTING 
SYSTEM ON THU.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL KICK IN ON THE ENSUING WESTERLY FLOW 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT AS THE AIR MASS 
DRIES FURTHER AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS SHOULD CURTAIL ON FRIDAY.  
BUT ANOTHER LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES IS 
PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING... BRINGING THE 
NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP.  MODELS RIGHT NOW HINT AT ALL 
SNOW...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.

TEMPS BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS COLD AS WITH 
YESTERDAY'S RUNS...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL 
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THEREAFTER.  WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE THE MILDEST OF THE PERIOD...AS LOWS SOUTH OF THE 
ADIRONDACKS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...THIS DUE 
TO THE SOUTHERLY WIND GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY'S 
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z MON WITH SOME BKN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-12 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER 03Z.

 OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SN/-PL/-RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LITTLE ICE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ANY 
JAMS FREEZE IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THAW. A COUPLE OF
SPOTTERS HAVE CALLED IN TODAY CONFIRMING THIS.

LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY THIS COMING WEEK WITH SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL START TO POKE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING 
BUT NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW...SO FLOWS WILL CONTINUE 
TO DIMINISH. ICE IN MANY AREAS WILL THICKEN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE
INSULATING LAYER OF SNOW ON TOP IS MOSTLY GONE. 

A STORM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE TAKING A MORE 
NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS A TRACK UP
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OFTEN BRINGS WARM AIR IN AHEAD OF IT 
WHICH COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF MELTING AND RAIN WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BOOST RIVER FLOWS AND CAUSE ICE 
MOVEMENT.

FOR DETAILS ON PAST REPORTED ICE JAM LOCATIONS PLEASE SEE OUR ICE
JAM REFERENCE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

FOR DETAILS ON THE RIVERS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC 
PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HELLER
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...RCK




####018004708####
FXUS63 KTOP 150528
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1128 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
NEAR 10KFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD LATE
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY. 67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

THE 19Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WAS 
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
US. AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE 
EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

THE 19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED SNOW COVER ACROSS THE EXTREME 
NORTHERN CWA ALONG THE NE BORDER...THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF 
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NE. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SNOW COVER WAS 
WAS KEEPING CNK COOLER WITH 28 DEGREES. FALL CITY...NE JUST NORTH OF 
BROWN COUNTY WAS ONLY 23 DEGREES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA HAD 
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MINOR 5H TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN DIG SOUTHEAST 
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. INCREASING WAA AT THE 700MB 
LEVEL AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH WILL CAUSE MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE 
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE 5H TROUGH AXIS 
MOVES EAST OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR. A 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT WITH 
THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. TOMORROW HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 30S ALONG 
THE NE BORDER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CWA.

GARGAN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT 
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF 
CLOUDS...DRY AIR AND COOL START TO THE EVENING WARRANTS LEANING 
TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE FOR LOWS AS OVERNIGHT WAA MAY NOT OCCUR 
QUICK ENOUGH OR BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL INVERSION 
THAT QUICKLY SETS UP IN THE EVENING AS EVIDENCED EVEN OVER THE NORTH 
CENTRAL AREAS. WILL GO WITH UPPER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. 
WAA...WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL ALL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY 
MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA AS LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE 
TO SHORTWAVE ADVANCING NORTHEAST ACROSS CA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN 
WEST. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS RISE INTO 
THE LOWER 40S FAR NORTH TO UPPER 40S EAST CENTRAL.

THE STRONG WAA IN THE 750-850MB LAYER WILL ALSO LEAD TO A 
STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE CWA IN THE PRESENCE OF 
A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON 
TUESDAY...SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KS BY 
LATE AFTERNOON. STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BENEATH 
THE EML MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS SHORTWAVE ADVANCES INTO THE 
PLAINS...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...BUT OCCURS WELL 
ABOVE THE EML AND IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE 
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...POPS LOOK 
LOW AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND WAIT UNTIL 
COOLING ALOFT TAKES PLACE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH 
MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR BEHIND EXITING SFC LOW PLUNGES 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AT THAT TIME...ANY LIGHT RAIN OCCURING 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO 
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWA...ENDING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY 
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE RAISED HIGHS TUESDAY 
UPWARDS SLIGHTLY AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE 
LATER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. 

EITHER WAY...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE AND A COLDER AND BLUSTERY DAY 
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH AND LIGHTER WINDS ON 
THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO LOWER 
40S SOUTH. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY FOR 
THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH THIS 
SCENARIO LOW THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR NOW. 
EITHER WAY...A DRY FCST BEYOND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE RULE IN 
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. 63            


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




####018006641####
FXUS61 KRNK 150529
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1229 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AT 02Z THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED CLOSE TO DAN. ALL OF THE
LIGHT RAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOT VERY THICK. HAVE ADDED PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES SINCE ANY
CRYSTAL GROWTH LOOKS UNLIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS ERODING IN
THE MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES ALOFT. PER COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SUNDAYS TMAX MAINLY IN THE 40S...LOWER 50S SOUTHSIDE
VA AND INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC.

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY 
NIGHT. THERE IS SOME VERTICAL MOTION FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT 
TO HELP SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE 
LIMITED TO THE VA-NC BORDER. THE NAM IS SHOWING A HALF TO ONE INCH 
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE NW NC MOUNTAINS WHILE GFS IS ABOUT A 
TENTH OF AN INCH. WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST...CSTAR ACTION 
MAKING GFS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. BOTH MODELS 
DISPLAYING SE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO 
FURTHER ROB THE AREA OF ANY MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION. 

THERMAL PROFILES SHOWING COLD AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND EVAPORATIVE 
COOLING TO HAVE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS A WET SNOW. NAM 
BUFKIT OUTPUT FOR SNOWFALL AT BOONE (TNB) IS ABOUT 6 INCHES...GFS 
ONLY A HALF OF AN INCH. WITH SUNDAYS TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD AND 
INCREASE SUN ANGLE...WARM ROAD SURFACES SHOULD BE ABLE TO MELT MOST 
OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS. OUTSIDE OF SHELTER AREAS AND HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFIDED TO GRASSY SURFACES. 
WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH...WILL KEEP ACCUMULATION LIGHT...EVEN 
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY MORNING...THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL WILL BE PULLING SNOW AND 
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TO 
THE EAST COAST...THEIR MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS 
IN THE WEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BLOCKING THE GREAT LAKES AND FLOW 
BEING MORE NORTHERLY...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MUSTER A 
LIGHT COATING OF SNOW ON THESE WESTERN SLOPES. BY THE 
AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIER AIR 
WILL END SNOW THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION 
THROUGH TUESDAY AND SLIDE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM 
MOIST AIR WILL INVADE THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT TO HELP SATURATE THE 
ATMOSPHERE. JET DYNAMIC INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 
50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET TRACKS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS 
SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY QUICKLY INTO A DRY AIR MASS AND PRECIP MAY 
HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE 
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR TIMING ISSUES. TEMPERATURES 
PROFILE SUGGEST TUESDAY NIGHTS PRECIPITATION WILL BE 
RAIN...HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF 
FREEZING RAIN IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH 
TO ADD FREEZING RAIN TO FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN BELOW 
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE 
PERIOD AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. 
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME ON TUESDAY BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES SHY 
OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE LONG RANGE SUITE REGARDING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SYSTEM. THUS...INC POPS TO LOW LIKELY AND MADE
SOME CHGS TO TEMPS. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT LONG RANGE MODEL
BIAS OF ACCELERATING COLD FRONTS TOO QUICKLY EAST...SLOWED DOWN
THE PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR GIVING WARMER MINS WED NIGHT AND
WARMER MAX T IN THE DOWNSLOPE REGION ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR
AND PERSISTENT NW WINDS...AS THE UPPER PATTERN CONNECTS VERY WELL
WITH THIS TYPE OF OUTCOME...SHOULD LEAD TO ACCUM UPSLOPE SNOWS
ACROSS SE WEST VA AND NW NC STARTING THURS NIGHT AND LASTING INTO
PART OF FRIDAY. ECMWF TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE GFS IS PUSHING THE
EASTERN TROUGH OFF THE COAST RATHER QUICKLY...AND NOT SURE IF I
BUY THIS RAPID DEPARTURE. ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A JET
STREAK ENTERING THE WEST COAST WHICH SHOVES THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS EAST. PERHAPS WITH BETTER UPPER AIR DATA AS NEXT
WEEK APPROACHES...THIS CONUNDRUM WILL BE BETTER RESOLVED. FOR
NOW...KEPT TEMPS A LITTLE COLDER LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ON
SATURDAY. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE ABOVE...THE SYSTEM WHICH BOTH THE
ECMWF/GFS DEPICT NEXT WEEKEND WOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IF
THE EASTERN TROUGH IS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHECK SIGMETS/AIRMETS FOR ICING...TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN 
OBSCURATIONS. IN THE WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE UPSLOPE LOW 
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS AT BLF AND LWB 
EARLY THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
REMAIN VFR. 

MOUNTAIN CLOUDINESS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AGAIN WITH THE THREAT OF MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AGAIN AHEAD OF ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE HINTON WV NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS WORKING IN A DEGRADED MODE...
300 WATTS AS OPPOSED TO 1000 WATTS. THE COMMERCIAL POWER IS OUT
DUE TO THE WIND DAMAGE IN THE AREA AND IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR
TWO TO RESTORE. IN THE MEAN TIME WE ARE RUNNING OFF OF A
GENERATOR...BUT AT A REDUCED POWER.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...KK/PM
EQUIPMENT...



####018004510####
FXUS65 KTFX 150529
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1030 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY MORNING HAS TAPERED TO FLURRIES
THIS EVENING. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING OVER THE REGION.
ONE OF THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT GENERATING LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. ON
SUNDAY...WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ALLOWS COOLER AIR TO 
STAY SETTLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC 
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY WHILE A WEAK 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MEDIUM RANGE 
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE 
DESCENDING BOUNDARY GENERATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN 
MONTANA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY WEST OF THE 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD CROSS OVER INTO 
NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA SO INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS 
FAR NORTHERN MONTANA STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. WHILE IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO SNOW AMOUNTS SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH 
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
SEVERAL INCHES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG THE 
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT BUT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
MONITORED. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE 
SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ON 
MONDAY. MLS

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OVER THE PLAINS AND THE 
ADJOINING MOUNTAINS..A WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM CANADA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IT 
WILL BE PRECEDED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR. SINCE THE AIRMASS 
AHEAD OF IT IS ALREADY ON THE COLD SIDE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE A 
SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA THE 
REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY 
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE VALLEYS WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY 
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THE 
ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EXPECT A BREAK IN THE 
MOISTURE BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SNOW OVER 
THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE 
PERIOD. THE ECMWF BRINGS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE THROUGH 
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST. IN 
CASE THE ECMWF PANS OUT HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SNOW TO THE EAST 
SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. BLANK

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN 
FROM THE WEST KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW DURING THIS PERIOD. 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 
LATE IN THE WEEKEND ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SAUCIER

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA 
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO 
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SCENARIO WILL 
KEEP VARIABLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR AREAS OF 
LIGHT SNOW AND FOG WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VARYING BETWEEN VFR 
AND IFR AT TIMES. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN 
CONDITIONS STARTING MID MORNING SUNDAY AS THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
BRINGS SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
DEVELOPS IN NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FOR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  12  28  15  32 /  40  20  50  20 
CTB   9  20  13  26 /  50  30  60  30 
HLN  18  36  22  41 /  40  20  20  10 
BZN  16  35  20  40 /  40  10  10  10 
WEY   2  25   9  30 /  60  30  30  30 
DLN  13  31  19  38 /  50  10  10  20 
HVR   1  20   4  21 /  20  20  40  20 
LWT  10  26  16  30 /  40  20  20  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS