FXUS04 KWBC 141000 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
559 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003
 
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 15/1200 UTC THRU JUN 17/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 



...DAY1...

AGAIN...FLIP-FLOPPING QPFS OVER THE SOUTH WERE NOTED BTWN THE
0000 AND 0600 UTC RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL LENDING VERY LITTLE
CONFIDENCE TO THE FCST THERE.   MADE SOME SGFNT CHANGES EARLY
IN THE FCST PD OVR WRN GULF STATES BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SE TX UPPER VORT CNTR.

...NEW ENG...

THE ETA AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR HANDLING THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY
LIFTING ACROSS NEW ENG AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF A SFC LOW
OFF THE NEW ENG CST.    AS A RESULT MODEL QPFS ARE NOT THAT
DIFFERENT...WITH BOTH INDCTG OVRRNG RAINS LIFTING NWD ACROSS
NRN NEW ENG...AND THEREFORE DID NOT DEVIATE SGFNTLY FM
GUIDANCE.

...CONCERNING THE WEAK BROAD TROF OVR THE CNTRL/ERN U.S...

FIRST OF ALL...CONFIDENCE HERE IS ABOUT AS LOW AS YOU CAN GET
HERE WITH THE MODELS HAVING A SGFNT QPF DIFFERENCES DUE THE
VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HERE AND THE INVOLVEMENT OF
MESOSCALE SYSTEMS.   ONE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT APPEARS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 12-24HRS IS THAT PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY
WILL FIRE AREAS OF HVY CNVCTV RAINS FM TX EWD INTO THE SERN U.S.
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF PSN.   IT IS MOST
DIFFICULT TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ANY PARTICULAR MID LVL
IMPULSE THAT WILL FIRE THIS ACTVTY AND THE UNCERTAINTY IS
COMPOUNDED BY THE UNKNOWN EFFECTS OF MESOSCALE FORCING.  
ACROSS SRN TX...WE WILL HAVE A FVBL MSTR CHANNEL ASOCTD WITH
LLVL SELY FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF.   ANY ACTVTY THAT DVLPS OVR THE
SRN HI PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY ADVANCE SEWD WITH TIME
ALONG THIS AXIS.   MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL GULF/SERN U.S. WILL SEE
SHWRS TRIGGERED BY CNVCTVLY ENHANCED VORTS BEING EJECTED
ENEWD FM CURRENT AND FUTURE ACTVTY OVR TX.    THE ETAS QPF FM
THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD TWDS THE SRN APLCNS APPEARS
REASONABLE THOUGH SHIFTED IT SLIGHTLY EWD TO REFLECT THE TIMING
OF THE CURRENT CNVCTN OVR THE NWRN GULF COAST AREA AND ITS
ASOCTD MESOSCALE GENERATED VORT CNTR.

MEANWHILE...LLVL MSTR CNVGNC AXIS LYING FM THE MID ATLC REGION
WSWWD ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE ANOTHER 
FEATURE ALONG WHICH CNVCTN COULD FOCUS.   THE ONLY WELL-
DEFINED MID LVL FEATURE FOR TRIGGERING ACTVTY ALONG THIS AXIS IS
THE WEAK MID LVL TROF FCST TO BE OVR THE MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY
AREA BY THIS EVNG.    ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION NOW BEING
EJECTED  EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY COULD SERVE TO FIRE CNVCTN
OVR THAT AREA AND THE CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE DAY TODAY.   IN
ADDITION...A LEE TROF OVR THE SRN MID ATLC REGION COULD HELP TO
FOCUS ADNL SHWRS THERE.  

...NRN PLAINS...

SCTD SHWRS ARE EXPECTED HERE ASOCTD WITH THE EWD PUSH OF A
WEAK CDFNT.   AMAZINGLY...THE MODEL QPFS AS FAR AS PLACEMENT IS
CONCERNED ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.


DAY 2...


...SERN STATES/CAROLINAS...

MORE WET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SE AND MID-ATLC STATES THIS
PERIOD AS MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM UP THRU THE GULF STATES AND
MID-ATLC STATES FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF. BOTH MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE PATN AT 500 MB
WITH A VARIETY OF S/WV'S EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LIFTING UP THRU THE
REGION. WHILE THEY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...
THEY.. OF COURSE... ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING DETAILS OF THE EMBEDDED VORTS. THE GFS
LOOKS FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THE PCPN THAT IS EXPECTED ALONG
AND NEAR THE BNDRY DRAPED THRU THE SE. ENDED UP GOING MORE
WITH THE ETA HERE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS MIGHT BE A BIT TOO FAST
CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST.
ADDITIONALLY.. THE GFS DOES LOOK OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF 

...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...

LINGERING S/WV ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MSTR POOLED ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TO PRODUCE FAIRLY HVY
RNFL OVER LA AND ERN TX.  THE ETA SEEMS TO BE A BIT BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH THE VORT OVER SRN TEXAS AND THUS IS ALSO BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH THE QPF. AGAIN... THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HAVING
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.. THIS TIME OVER N CNTRL TEXAS WHERE IT HAS
ALMOST THREE INCHES.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE AS BOTH THE
MODELS SHOW TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NWD ACRS SRN FLORIDA AND
SUPPORTING MDT TO HVY DIURNAL CONVECTION.


DAY3....


WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MASS FIELDS ON DAY3.. THE QPF
ACTUALLY LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO THAT ON DAY2. THE BROAD AND
WEAK UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE MS AND OH VLYS AND MSTR
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NWD FROM THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF
SUPPORTING YET MORE MDT TO HVY RAINS IN A SWATH FROM THE LWR
MS VYL EWD THRU THE OUTER BANKS. HAVING LITTLE FAITH IN THE
ABILITY
OF THE MDLS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.. WILL JUST
BASICALLY BROAD BRUSH THE PCPN. AGAIN.. THE ETA LOOKS MUCH
BETTER ORGANISED COMPARED TO THE GFS AT H5 WITH THE MAIN VORT.  
A FAST MOVING NRN STREAM S/WV WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME LT TO MDT
RAINS EWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY.



KORTY/ROBSON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 497680 492666 490662 485655 478643 471634 462626 457625 
      453624 450626 447625 441622 436622 431626 428626 426626 
      424629 421635 419641 417648 414661 410673 407677 404680 
      400684 391694 384698 374703 365711 360718 350737 338758 
      332767 327776 321781 314783 309783 303785 284788 274789 
      265789 258789 252790 240797 239803 239809 240815 248822 
      254826 271835 279840 287846 291852 292855 293861 292868 
      288876 285886 266922 263929 261938 259943 257948 252953 
      247962 245966 244972 244978 245986 249997 253005 259012 
      267017 273022 280027 287034 294043 300048 305051 321057 
      326056 332057 338058 341060 348061 352064 356065 363067 
      377065 388064 396065 401063 406060 424050 429053 432057 
      437060 444062 458058 462059 463061 461068 456079 456087 
      455092 447098 446101 446105 448109 452115 455118 460124 
      463131 474137 477142 482145 490154 494157 493161 493162 
      489162 486162 483164 485170 489175 494179 504186 515189 
      518187 519183 521177 520170 514157 510149 507145 502141 
      492135 483130 481125 479116 478110 478100 479080 482071 
      481060 481055 483054 488050 497046 508044 519039 526035 
      529030 530024 529019 528012 526009 520006 516006 504002 
      500000 502999 515995 525991 529986 529980 523978 518977 
      503977 495978 489980 483982 477985 464989 452989 445988 
      441985 440975 435971 430969 417970 410970 404970 396968 
      388965 379963 374962 369961 362958 357955 355950 355944 
      356936 361927 368916 377898 382889 386879 391866 395861 
      399855 403852 406847 410840 413834 420815 423791 424783 
      423777 421770 418766 416761 416757 417749 418737 420733 
      426730 432730 437731 449733 460736 469737 475737 482732 
      487727 491721 493709 495703 496695 497680 
 0.01 536216 536210 534202 531198 526198 523199 522201 521206 
      522212 524217 525222 526231 525236 523239 520240 512236 
      507231 504225 500215 497210 495209 491211 490215 488218 
      489223 493235 498244 500251 499248 495245 493242 490241 
      484240 477232 473233 471236 472241 477247 484259 488268 
      493276 500287 505291 511293 
 0.01 437000 433000 430002 427005 422009 419011 417015 414018 
      417020 421017 425014 428011 434008 436004 437000 
 0.25 485690 484684 482676 475664 469657 462650 449637 443634 
      440635 435639 431648 428656 425676 424684 425692 431697 
      438704 443711 447715 450716 457713 466713 473712 478709 
      482705 484701 485696 485690 
 0.25 516272 516266 514261 511256 509253 506254 505259 502260 
      499259 493257 493259 495267 497272 499276 504280 507281 
      509279 513276 516272 
 0.25 403753 401747 398742 395736 391732 386731 381732 377737 
      375739 372737 369733 364735 361739 359745 357758 353769 
      349778 343785 335794 331798 325802 314808 307811 301812 
      291810 281807 266800 262799 256802 253807 252813 258819 
      267823 277825 289826 298826 305828 310831 313834 317842 
      317849 314854 312857 308858 304860 302864 299874 297879 
      293886 286902 282912 279923 275936 273946 272952 270956 
      265965 261972 258979 257988 260994 265003 272010 279016 
      289021 296029 301035 309040 319042 330041 337039 341035 
      350028 348021 345017 339009 330951 328946 326939 327930 
      328924 330911 331906 334902 336898 337891 343884 349873 
      353869 356868 359869 362876 362882 360896 361898 364897 
      368893 374883 378875 382866 386856 390849 393845 399840 
      402837 407826 409819 410812 410804 410796 408784 405772 
      404768 403763 403753 
 0.50 479690 476681 471672 467666 463660 454649 449646 444644 
      440645 437650 434665 435671 435677 438681 442689 446698 
      450702 455703 465703 472701 477699 479695 479690 
 0.50 404809 404805 403802 402801 402803 400805 399808 398809 
      396813 394817 393818 392821 392823 392827 393830 395831 
      398830 400829 402826 404822 404820 405817 404813 404810 
      404809 
 0.50 384752 383748 381748 377752 375755 373758 369764 367769 
      366773 366777 368781 373779 378775 380772 383768 382761 
      383756 384752 
 0.50 355827 355818 353815 351813 346814 343817 341823 337838 
      333850 331856 328861 323866 315870 307872 303877 296887 
      291897 287910 284922 279935 281942 282944 284944 286942 
      290941 289946 284959 282964 277970 271977 267981 265988 
      266995 269001 278010 281012 286014 292018 295022 300027 
      305031 318035 325034 330032 332029 333025 330018 327012 
      323007 313000 310995 308992 309987 313983 317977 319971 
      319964 317955 314947 316942 319936 322931 324924 324914 
      326907 332896 336884 342872 346860 348852 351846 354835 
      355827 
 0.50 281816 278816 274815 270811 267808 265806 261804 257805 
      258809 260811 263814 266817 270818 273819 276819 278817 
      281818 281816 
 1.00 330879 330876 328876 324880 313886 307889 303891 298895 
      295899 292910 292917 290923 299928 303932 307932 311930 
      315924 317913 321902 326893 330882 330879 
 1.00 315019 314014 310010 306007 302003 299999 296992 290986 
      287979 286977 283977 280980 276985 276990 278994 285003 
      292009 299017 302021 309023 315019  
 
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
 0.01 437600 432610 430616 433624 436632 437638 440645 443648 
      448654 452657 457659 460663 463671 465677 465685 464691 
      456702 455709 455714 459717 463718 470716 475710 477705 
      479698 481684 485659 487644 487637 486628 486622 486617 
      479603 475595 472591 467584 465581 463580 455579 
 0.01 540207 539204 539202 537197 537196 535193 532191 529193 
      528194 527198 527203 527206 527208 529213 529217 530219 
      531223 535221 535220 536216 538211 539209 540207 
 0.01 520264 521257 521252 516244 512243 509245 507252 508259 
      505259 500255 498255 494258 493265 494269 498279 501285 
      505288 507287 513280 516272 520264 
 0.01 521953 520949 518947 513945 498947 496945 501939 508928 
      508916 514902 514894 510889 506885 502883 499888 499899 
      494911 488925 480935 470943 464947 460951 456957 456962 
      461965 461970 460974 458990 456997 455007 455017 456027 
      459043 459052 457060 449060 447063 446067 447073 456080 
      456092 454098 454103 455107 458114 462127 467131 472133 
      480134 484134 488133 492131 493131 493126 487117 488094 
      488073 492058 493052 493046 493036 497023 495014 492006 
      494001 497995 504983 510974 518962 521956 521953 
 0.01 377711 376706 373701 368695 366694 362696 356701 344709 
      340721 336736 332749 327762 323773 320778 316785 312790 
      308792 304794 281787 269787 264787 257788 252790 249793 
      246798 241809 243816 247821 251826 256829 278836 285837 
      291838 295840 300845 304851 307860 306868 304874 301881 
      298887 290897 274917 265925 252933 243939 240943 241951 
      245954 249956 248959 246966 247972 248977 247985 249993 
      251999 255006 258011 262014 267017 283009 285016 287024 
      291029 296033 301037 307037 323035 331034 338033 345034 
      354034 357037 355041 353048 350050 346051 338051 329050 
      323053 321055 320060 326065 341065 349068 355068 361068 
      367070 376070 385069 390068 392067 393063 392056 388050 
      382045 381042 383039 385037 398031 398026 398021 397015 
      394014 390015 386017 381020 371026 367027 364026 361020 
      351009 348003 346996 344985 343980 343974 342963 342953 
      343938 345921 349908 355895 366871 371855 376841 384811 
      387805 391799 393795 392790 391783 388763 387746 385737 
      382726 378715 377711 
 0.25 463594 457590 447591 442597 441601 441615 444628 448639 
      451643 456646 463650 467651 471650 474648 475644 475639 
      469624 467611 467605 464597 463594 
 0.25 485046 486037 484034 482033 476035 472038 468042 467055 
      466072 465081 463085 462089 462094 464106 467113 470114 
      473111 478103 478094 477085 478076 479068 482057 485046 
 0.25 376740 374732 372725 368721 364719 359722 355726 349734 
      339751 336762 335771 334781 332791 330796 326800 323803 
      318804 300807 281806 277805 273802 270800 264800 256802 
      253805 251810 256817 263823 271826 278827 288827 294827 
      299828 306831 316829 320831 323835 324841 323845 321856 
      318866 311885 306892 301900 295906 288911 281918 275923 
      268931 263938 262942 261948 260958 257977 257984 259989 
      263998 267001 270002 267993 265986 265980 268970 271962 
      271957 276956 283955 286956 295959 304962 305968 306975 
      309980 312983 318982 323979 325975 328966 332944 337922 
      341902 344892 346888 350884 355878 360869 364858 367849 
      367841 369836 373827 385787 384782 382775 381762 380755 
      378748 376740 
 0.50 461611 460607 458604 456603 454603 453604 452605 451606 
      449610 449613 449616 449618 450622 451626 454629 456631 
      456632 459631 461628 461626 461621 461616 461612 461611 
 0.50 477055 478051 477049 474051 472059 471068 470074 469081 
      465089 464095 467103 472104 473102 474096 474089 473077 
      474072 474066 475059 477055 
 0.50 377760 365727 361727 358730 354736 347748 346755 3