SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
618 PM MST THU AUG 16 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THE NEXT FEW              
DAYS. THE RESULTING FLOW PATTERN WILL DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM                     
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DESERTS...WITH DRIER AIR TO              
THE NORTH AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN NORTHERN MEXICO. BY EARLY NEXT                 
WEEK...THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF ARIZONA AND THE FLOW BECOMES FAVORABLE            
FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.                                   
.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY SW              
TOWARD KTUS FROM COCHISE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. CELL ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN            
LOOSE, PULSEY, AND OUTFLOW DOMINATED SO FAR. 00Z KTUS SOUNDING IS               
SURPRISINGLY STABLE (CAPE AROUND 900 J/KG) WITH A CAP AT 500MB. THE             
ONE TROUBLING THING I SEE IS THAT OUR BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY DEEP               
AND RATHER DRY. INVERTED-V EXTENDING UP TO 600MB RAISES A RED FLAG              
FOR MICROBURSTS AS THE STORMS STRUGGLE TO MOVE INTO THE SANTA CRUZ              
VALLEY THROUGH 8 PM. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED IN W COCHISE                  
COUNTY AS THEY HIT MORE STABLE AIR. LAPS DATA FROM 00Z SHOWS THE                
HIGHEST CAPES OVER EASTERN PINAL AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES, BOTH OF               
WHICH CLEARED OUT A LITTLE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE 21Z             
RUC INDICATES SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HRS AS                 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES OVER SE AZ. THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOW MOVING TOWARD THE AREA, A COUPLE OF WHICH ARE            
GOING TO COLLIDE BASED ON WSR-88S LOOPS. IN SUMMARY, ANY STORMS                 
WHICH CAN DEVELOP OVER PINAL, EASTERN PIMA, AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES             
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MICROBURSTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL            
HOURS. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THANKS TO OUR SOMEWHAT                
LIMITED CAPES. PYTLAK                                                           
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                     
FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS SHRA COVERAGE.                                        
WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE INTO NW WI...WITH A               
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO LWR MI. NICE UPPER DIFFLUENCE                    
PATTERN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NW WI SHORTWAVE AS RADAR SHOWS SHRA                 
FANNING OUT NWD THRU ERN WI INTO UPPER MI. AT THE SFC...ONE LOW WAS             
NEAR KP59 WHILE A SECOND LOW WAS JUST S OF KMKE.                                
AFTER THE FRUSTRATION OF TRYING TO GET SHRA IN HERE YESTERDAY...                
FCST THIS AFTN IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. SHORTWAVE IN NW WI WILL DRIFT SE             
THIS AFTN TWD KMNM PER 12Z RUC...PROVIDING MDT/STRONG QVEC                      
CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE PATTERN OVER FA...                   
ESPECIALLY E HALF. GIVEN DEEP MOIST AIRMASS (12Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWS            
DWPT DEPRESSIONS OF 5C OR LESS THRU 500MB)...CONTINUED FORCING FOR              
LARGE SCALE UVM...AND EXPANSIVE NATURE OF SHRA PER CURRENT RADAR                
IMAGERY...EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHRA ALL AFTN OVER FA...ESPECIALLY            
E HALF OR SO. TSRA THREAT APPEARS VERY MINIMAL. UPSTREAM KGRB                   
SOUNDING SHOWS UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES AS TEMP PROFILE IS MOIST                
ADIABATIC. MODIFICATION OF SOUNDING FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S                  
(WHICH IS A BIT OPTIMISTIC) ONLY YIELDS CAPES AROUND 300J/KG. WILL              
FURTHER DOWNPLAY TS THREAT ON UPDATE. THICK CLOUD COVER/SHRA WILL               
GENERALLY KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES FROM                   
CURRENT READINGS                                                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
1015 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                     
MESO-ETA AND RUC TO A CERTAIN DEGREE INDICATES WEAK UVVS ACROSS THE             
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNITE PERIOD. RUC IS SHOWING A WEAK              
INVERTED SFC TROF JUST OFF THE COAST...MESO-ETA TO A LESSER                     
DEGREE...WARRNANTING SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL                     
CLDS. WILL CHANGE SKY CONDITIONS TO BECOMING PTLY CLDY ALONG THE                
IMMEDIATE COAST. SHULD SEE PATCHY GROUND FOG...HOWEVER NOT                      
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS...PERSISTENCE FROM            
LAST NIGHTS MINS WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION FROM ONSHORE FLOW THAT             
WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA. CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK IN THE                    
BALLPARK EXCEPT WILL TWEAK SLITELY LOWER INLAND.                                
CWF...WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST SC COAST AND                
SOUTHEAST NC COAST OVERNIGHT GETS ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW EARLY               
FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE WIND DIR FROM THE EAST 10-15 KTS TO ACCOUNT             
THE TROF ACTION. SEAS 3-4 FT.                                                   
FCSTID = 11                                                                     
ILM   71  91  75  89 /   0  20  40  40                                          
LBT   68  92  72  90 /   0  20  40  40                                          
FLO   69  93  73  91 /   0  20  40  40                                          
MYR   72  88  76  87 /   0  20  40  40                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
DCH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1030 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                     
...WILL UPDATE TO TWEAK POPS AND TEMPS...                                       
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STORM SYSTEM IN MIDWEST WITH SURFACE LOW             
OVER CHICAGO. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 20-30 KNOT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY             
FLOW FROM 3-20 KFT.                                                             
12Z PIT AND BUF SOUNDINGS SHOWS DISTINCT DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE                  
REGION. PIT SHOWS WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AFTER MIXING...WHILE BUF                 
WILL BE DRIER AFTER MIXING. LOOKS TO BE A WARM FRONT FORMING OVER               
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.             
DRY LAYER IN THE MIDLEVELS NOTED FROM PIT SOUNDING WILL HELP TO                 
DESTABILIZE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                
MIXING WILL STRENGTHEN THIS FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT            
SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION FIRING...WHICH              
IS ALREADY OCCURRING BACK IN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. RUC40            
SHOWS DECENT 925MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH -5 TO -10 UBAR/S 850MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES.                 
MAIN ACTION WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE UPPER             
MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE 850MB JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OUT              
OF THE SOUTHWEST. WIND PROFILE WILL BE STRONG AND VEERING. CONCERN              
TONIGHT IS HELICITY VALUES PROGGED AT OVER 300 M2/S2. BEST CHANCE               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND WILL REISSUE SEVERE WEATHER                   
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
.CTP...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN COUNTIES.                             
ROGOWSKI/RXR                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
950 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                      
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL              
TN IS NOT TREMENDOUS THIS EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE 30 KT 850 MB JET SHOWING UP ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...               
HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WITH                 
LATEST RUC SHOWING FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING TO FAR WRN CWA BORDER BY                
12Z...WILL HOLD ONTO CHC POPS FOR MTN ZONES OVERNIGHT. MESO ETA                 
SOUNDING HOLDS ONTO 1500 CAPES NEAR AVL AT 06Z TONIGHT WITH AN                  
IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILE...BUT COVERAGE AND FORCING APPEAR WEAK.                 
WILL ISSUE UPDATE TO TWEAK NC PIEDMONT TEMPS DOWN A CATEGORY SINCE              
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND TEMPS ARE RUNNING BELOW MOS THROUGH                
01Z. WILL ALSO CLEAN UP MIDNIGHT WORDING ELSEWHERE.                             
FCSTID = 33                                                                     
GSP   70  87  70  89 /  10  30  30  30                                          
AND   70  87  70  89 /  10  30  30  30                                          
CLT   69  87  69  88 /  10  30  30  30                                          
HKY   67  85  66  86 /  10  30  30  30                                          
AVL   65  82  65  85 /  40  40  30  30                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
HG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
815 PM THU AUG 16 2001                                                          
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PUT NEW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MT/ND                   
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RACING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA PER WATER              
VAPOUR. WEAK WY SHORTWAVE SUSTAINING -SHRA AFTER DARK...00Z RUC                 
SUPPORTS WANING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A                
CHANCE OF -SHRA AFTER 06Z WITH THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT            
TO KRAP AROUND 12Z.                                                             
WILL SPRUCE UP THE CURRENT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THOUGHTS.              
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1125 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                     
...AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                       
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS                     
LINGERING AROUND THE AIRPORTS. SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OK WILL            
KEEP WIND FLOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES...WITH JUST A SLIGHT                 
TREND TOWARD A SE FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND              
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY              
NOT MAKE IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...SO THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED             
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL LIFT ARRIVES.                
WILL LEAVE PRECIP AND THUNDER OUT OF TAFS ATTM. 80                              
1037 AM PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO             
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST RUC MOVES THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY MAY BE              
DISPLACED SOUTH OF FRONTAL POSITION DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT               
CONVECTION. MORNING RAOB AT FWD SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/                
STABILIZATION FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS...INDICATING THAT THE MAIN               
THREAT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS           
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE DECREASED THE POPS                    
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL                  
REDUCE DIABATIC HEATING...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ALL                  
AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST.                                                         
.FWD...NONE.                                                                    
09                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1037 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2001                                                     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO             
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST RUC MOVES THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY MAY BE              
DISPLACED SOUTH OF FRONTAL POSITION DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT               
CONVECTION. MORNING RAOB AT FWD SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/                
STABILIZATION FROM LAST NIGHT'S STORMS...INDICATING THAT THE MAIN               
THREAT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS           
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH THAT IN MIND HAVE DECREASED THE POPS                    
SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL                  
REDUCE DIABATIC HEATING...SO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ALL                  
AREAS EXCEPT SOUTHEAST.                                                         
.FWD...NONE.                                                                    
09                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
241 AM MST FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA              
TRIGGERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND THIS MORNING.                
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN             
FROM THE WEST OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE              
AIR WILL DRY A LITTLE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA...               
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY STOP POSSIBLE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME              
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL                 
ARIZONA...THROUGH SATURDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST               
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A               
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGH PRESSURE              
AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...                 
LEADING TO SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES.                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE CAUSING A RUCKUS AS IT TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS            
ACROSS S-CNTRL AZ LATE LAST EVE AND THIS MORNING UNDER DIFLUENT FLOW            
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH COL AT H3. ALL CAME TOGETHER OVER S-CNTRL AZ            
AT THE RIGHT TIME. DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING SWD...WITH              
STORMS SOON TO CLEAR THE PHOENIX METRO AREA. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED             
TO BUILD IN FROM THE W...BUT STEERING FLOW TO REMAIN OFF THE HIGHER             
TERRAIN TO THE N. THEREFORE...WILL STAY WITH MOS GUIDANCE OF 20 PCT             
POPS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT FOR THE PHOENIX METRO AREA...BUT IN GENERAL             
WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GETTING HOTTER AS              
HIGH BUILDS IN...BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE AS HOT AS PREVIOUS FORECAST              
...AS EXPECT SFC RH TO REMAIN PRETTY HIGH...AS NOTHING MUCH TO SCOUR            
IT OUT. ETA AND AVN MODELS FORECAST SE AZ DEFORMATION ZONE TO MOVE A            
LITTLE FARTHER N TODAY...TO A POSITION FAVORING MORE AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. H5            
NELY STEERING CURRENTS...AND SOME COOL ADVECTION AT H5 TO REINFORCE             
CAPE OVER THE DESERTS...SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS MOVING OR PROPAGATING             
TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH               
...ETA SEEMED TO CAPTURE THE IMPULSE TRIGGERING STORMS THIS MORNING             
BETTER THAN DID THE AVN. AS FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL LEAVE IT AS IS              
FOR NOW.  WILT                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
325 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
KLWX RADAR SHOWING ONLY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND            
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AT TIME. MORE SCATTERED PRECIP SHOWING UP ON             
KCCX/KPBZ/KRLX RADARS FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH WESTERN WV. 06Z                   
ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN OHIO... WITH SCATTERED                  
PRECIP A LITTLE BIT AHEAD OF FRONT. 00Z ETA AND 06Z RUC BRING THIS              
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MORNING... WITH               
ETA PUSHING FRONT THROUGH THE EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A BAND             
OF SCATTERED PRECIP TO CONTINUE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT STABILITY                
INDICES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...               
BUT MAIN DYNAMIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH              
OF US. ETA/RUC SHIFT WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 850 TO THE                       
WEST/SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RESULTING DOWNSLOPE AND DRYING               
SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY            
AROUND 18Z... AND WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY IN THE ZONES. CLEARING SKIES            
BY MID AFTERNOON FROM IAD/CHO WEST ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH             
TEMPS UP CLOSE TO 90. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST AS CLOUDS AND                 
SCATTERED PRECIP HOLD ON A BIT LONGER.                                          
WEAK HIGH BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL              
DRYING AT THE SURFACE ON BOTH ETA AND AVN. WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT MOS             
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES IN FAVORED COOLER AREAS. SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET            
WITH ONLY SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.                            
FRONT APPEARS TO MAKE A RETURN NORTHWARD BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...              
AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AVN TRYING TO              
BUMP UP TIMING OF PRECIP A LITTLE BIT... BUT 60 HR ETA FORECAST                 
STILL HAS PRECIP JUST TO THE WEST. WILL NOT STRAY FROM TIMING OF                
CURRENT FORECAST... WITH PRECIP IN THE SUNDAY PERIOD.                           
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RESULT             
IN DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.                                               
DCA   89  68  86  70 /  30  10   0  20                                          
BWI   89  65  86  67 /  30  10   0  20                                          
MRB   88  58  85  63 /  30   0   0  20                                          
IAD   89  61  86  67 /  30   0   0  20                                          
CHO   89  62  86  68 /  30   0   0  20                                          
HGR   88  59  84  65 /  30   0   0  20                                          
NHK   87  70  84  71 /  30  10   0  20                                          
W99   89  62  87  65 /  30   0   0  20                                          
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW MEAN TROF OVR THE GREAT              
LAKES E OF HI AMPLITUDE WRN RDG. MAJOR SHRTWV OVR THE CNTRL LKS MOVG            
EWD AS H3 JET HAS ROUNDED BASE OF TROF AND PULLING SHRTWV E. NXT                
KICKER SHRTWV LOOKS FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND DROPPING S THRU MB ON ERN               
FLANK OF UPR RDG. DESPITE LINGERING LLVL CNVGC ARND SFC LO TO E OF              
ANJ...CLD TOP TEMPS IN WRAP ARND INCRSG AS H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H4-2              
DVGC PULLING OFF TO E WITH UPR LO. 88D LOOP SHOWS REFLECTIVITY/COVG             
OF ECHOES STEADILY DCRSG. LO CLD LINGERING IN CYC FLOW ON WRN FLANK             
OF SFC LO...BUT APRCH OF SFC RDG AXIS HAS BROUGHT CLRG TO IWD. SOME             
FOG DVLPD THERE AFTR SKIES CLRD WITH DWPTS STILL IN 50S. CLDS AHD OF            
MB SHRTWV NOW IN WRN ONTARIO...BUT FAIRLY DRY/STABLE MID TROP                   
DEPICTED ON 00Z YPL SDNG (KINX 16) RESTRICTING PCPN TO SCT SHRA.                
FOR TDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV/SFC LO OVR CNTRL             
LKS MOVG QUICKLY EWD WITH KICKER SHRTWV OVR MB DROPPING FARTHER S               
AND W THEN EARLIER FCST...A TREND CONSISTENT WITH STRENGTH OF WRN               
RDG. XCPT FOR SCT -SHRA OVR THE ERN ZNS EARLY...XPCT PCPN ASSOCIATED            
WITH FIRST SHRTWV TO HAVE ENDED OVR CWA BY ZN ISSUANCE. THEN SFC AND            
UPR RDGING/AXIS OF DRIER AIR ALF TO DOMINATE UNTIL LATE IN THE                  
DAY...WHEN SFC TROFFING AHD OF CAN SHRTWV APRCHS WRN ZNS. FIRST                 
ORDER OF BUSINESS IS TO DETERMINE TIMING OF CLRG OF CYC FLOW LO CLD.            
CLRG LINE NOW APRCHG IWD CORRELATES WELL WITH BACK EDGE OF CYC                  
FLOW...AND THIS AXIS FCST TO SPRD STEADILY W-E TDAY... REACHING ERN             
ZNS EARLY THIS AFTN. ONCE SUN COMES OUT...XPCT CU TO REDVLP WITH SFC            
DWPTS WELL INTO 50S UNDER H85 THERMAL TROF (AVN/ETA SHOW H85 TEMP 9C            
OVR E TO 12C OVR W BY 00Z) JUST BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN FCST ARND 6K               
FEET IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM 00Z SDNGS. VIS PIX FM YDAY SHOW            
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DVLPD UPSTREAM THU AFTN. UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS YDAY             
WELL IN 70S AND UPSTREAM SDNGS SHOW WELL MIXED BLYR...SO WL TEND                
TOWARD HIER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...FWC TEMPS ARE RUNNING TOO              
LO ATTM. CONSIDERING XPCTD FULL MIX TO H85...PREVIOUS FCST MAX AS HI            
AS THE UPR 70S ACRS THE INTERIOR SW LOOK OKAY. MODELS PERSIST ON                
GENERATING PCPN OVR FAR WRN ZNS BY 00Z WITH ETA/NGM SHOWING WEAK SFC            
TROFFING/LLVL MSTR CNVGC IN THIS AREA AS H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC ARRIVES            
BY 00Z. MESOETA FCST SDNG FOR IWD AT 21Z WITH T/TD OF 77/56                     
INDICATES 1100 J/KG AS UPR DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUBSIDENCE                  
INVRN. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR LK BREEZE CNVGC WITH WEAK SW GRADIENT                
FLOW...WL OPT TO MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA. BUT FCST 25 KINX                
SHUD LIMIT COVG TO SCT.                                                         
AS STRG SHRTWV DIGS TO NEAR MPX BY 12Z SAT...MODELS SHOW MOST                   
IMPRESSIVE H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/HIER PW AND H85-5 RH CROSSING MAINLY              
THE WRN ZNS INTO WI. ETA INDICATES SHARP GRADIENT OF KINX FM LO 30S             
ALG WI BORDER TO LO 20S AT ERY ON 12Z SAT. GIVEN MODEL TRENDS AND               
FCST LACK OF DYNAMICS TO SATURATE DRY MID LVLS ARRIVING TDAY... HAVE            
OPTED TO REMOVE PCPN MENTION FM FAR E. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY              
ONLY SCT SHRA AHD OF SHRTWV...WL BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVR WI                  
BORDER ZNS GIVEN AVN/ETA FCST H85-5 RH TO 80 PCT AND KINX OVR 30.               
BUT INITIAL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS AND LACK OF SGNFT ISENTROPIC LIFT                
SUGS CATEGORICAL POPS FCST BY AVN MOS MAY BE ON THE HI SIDE. HAVE               
GONE ABV MOS FCST FOR MINS GIVEN OBSVD DWPTS WELL INTO 50S IN CNTRL             
CAN.                                                                            
AS SHRTWV CONTS S ON SAT AND H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC EXITS...XPCT PCPN TO            
END N TO S. AVN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DRYING FM THE NE AS SFC HI PRES              
BLDS ACRS ONTARIO UNDER UPR RDGING IN SCNTRL CAN. CONSIDERING MODEL             
TRENDS...PREFER AVN FCST AND THINK ETA HOLDING ON TO LLVL MSTR TOO              
LONG (DWPT 65 AT IMT SAT AFTN) GIVEN XPCTD NELY WND WITH SHRTWV                 
GOING SO FAR S. USED MIX OF MAV/FWC MOS FOR MAX WITH TENDENCY TO GO             
LOWEST ON TEMPS RELATIVE TO MOS IN PLACES WITH MOST CLD COVER XPCTD.            
DRY WX SAT NGT WITH UPR RDGING AND H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC. NR MOS FCST              
FOR MINS.                                                                       
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
103 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
DISC...                                                                         
.BOTTOM LINE...AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TDA.                                     
.PROBLEM OF THE DAY...HOW POTENT WL THAT CONVECTION BE?                         
.SYNOPSIS...S/W TROAL WRN SHR HDSBAY SWD TO NRN PLNS KICKING/WKNG A             
VANGUARD TROAL OVR CNTRL GRTLKS QUICKLY ENE DOWN ST LAW VLY LTR TDA             
/TNGT.  ERN TROAL MOVS SO QUICKLY THAT DRIER AIR MOVS INTO CWA IN               
ULVLS TAFTN...AND DYNAMICS RMN WK THRUT THE DAY.  WRN TROAL DROPS TO            
VCNTY SWRN GRTLKS LT SAT WHILE ITSFYG.  WMFNT MAY MOV THRU ERN NY               
TMRNG FOLLOWED BY CDFNT OR OCFNT TAFTN/TEVE.  ASSOCD LOPRES MOVS                
THRU ONT/QUE PROVINCES TDA/TNGT...TO VCNTY SRN LABRADOR SAT.  USTBL             
AMS WL BE OVR CWA TDA...MORE STBL AIR TAKES HOLD TNGT...W WK SFC RDG            
ERN GRTLKS SAT.                                                                 
.MDLS...META/ETA/AVN/RAFS/GEM RGNL AND GLOBAL/SUNYSB MM5 MDLS WERE              
ALL EXAMINED.  ALL FCST AT LEAST A LTL PCPN OVR CWA TDA/TNGT.                   
GENLLY MDL QPF IS QUITE LGT.  HWR...MM5 SUNYSB HAS INVOF HLF/3 QTR              
INCH CTKLS...PEAK RNFL OCRS LT TMRNG...GOING DRY THRUT CWA BTWN                 
21Z/00Z.  META SUGGESTS THAT H2/H3 DVRGNC ASSOCD W WMAX WL PEAK TWD             
NOON FM LWR CTSKLS INTO SWRN NEW ENG...THEN WKN GO THE POINT OF BCMG            
CONVERGENT BY THE TIME SFC FNT ARRIVES IN HDSVLY.  THIS IS NOT A                
GOOD SIGN FOR WDSPRD DP CONVECTION BFR FROPA.  HWR...META BL CAPES              
INVOF 1500/1600 J/KG TAFTN IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT.  THIS IS A GOOD                 
SIGN.  GEM RGNL CAPE FCST NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...INVOF 500/1000 ACRS               
CWA FOR A PORTION OF THE AFTN.  TAFTN IN KALY/S CWA...ULVL WMAX                 
INVOF 100 KTS...LLVL WMAX INVOF 30 KTS.  STGST LLVL WND IS ERY                  
TMRNG.  META HLCTY FCST INVOF 100 WHILE GEM A BIT HIR AT 150+.                  
RAFS/GEM GLOBAL HAVE MOST WDSPRD PCPN SAT...NWRN CWA.  ETA/META/AVN             
ARE DRY...WHILE GEM RGNL SPITS OUT A LTL PCPN N/W.  ETA/AVN/GEM                 
GLOBAL FCST DRY SAT NGT.  AVN...HAS LOPRES CHARGING EWD ACRS OH VLY             
SUN AND BRINGS SGFNT PCPN INTO MUCH OF CWA DURG AFTN.  GEM GLOBAL               
FCSTS WDSPRD LGT PCPN SUN.                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD W MOISTENING AMS ALG WRMFNT HEADING            
INTO CWA ATTM.  RUC SHOWS GRTST INSTBLTY ALG CNTRL SRN TIER WHERE               
LGTNG STRIKES HAVE BEEN MOST NMRS.  RUC ALSO INDC WDSPRD ULVL DVRGNC            
TO THE W OF CWA.  MACHINE POPS ARE IN CHC OR LOW LKLKY CAT TDA...NOT            
TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN GOING FCST...AND WL LKLY STAY CLOSE TO                  
CURRENT FCST.  SPC HAD US HILITED IN DAY2 SWO PROD.  SOME ELEMENTS              
FOR SLGT RISK SVR ARE THERE...OTHERS ARE NOT.  WL AWAIT NEW DAY1 SWO            
BEFORE GOING W ENHANCED WORDING IN ZONES/SPS.  MM5 FCST SNDGS SAY               
MAXT 75/80 TAFTN...MACHINE GENLLY HIR.  WL GO W MAXT IN U70S/L80S.              
.LONG TERM...CDFNT WL BE E OF CWA FOR MUCH OF NGT.  ULVL TROF MOVG              
SO FAST THAT XPC DYNAMICS TO BE UNFAVORABLE TO CONT W CONVECTION AFT            
00Z.  HWR...ENUF LLVL INSTBLTY INDC N/W OF CAP DIST TO CAUSE SOME               
LGT SHWRS.  THE PREV FCST HAD THIS INDC AND WL STICK W IT.  WL LWR              
MIN/T FM PREV FCST INTO U50S IN NWRN ZNS TNGT...OTRW...NO CHG.                  
SAT SHOULD BE MNLY DRY.  HWR...SINCE PCPN INDC IN NWRN ZNS BY PREV              
FCST...AND SOME MDLS HAVE A LTL THERE...WL CONT W LOW CHC SHWRS                 
...NW.  COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL AMT OF CI W DP TROAL WRN GRTLKS...                 
SPILLING EWD INTO CWA.  MM5 FCST SNDGS SUGGEST MAXT SAT WL BE A LTL             
LWR THAN TDA.  H8 TEMP IS A DEG OR TWO LWR...BUT MAY BE MORE SS.                
.XTND FCST...MDLS SUGGEST DRY SAT NGT AND PCPN SUN...PER CURRENT                
FCST.  LATEST RUN OF GEM GLOBAL/AVN FCST TROAL/SFC LOPRES INVCNTY               
MON SO CONT W CHC SHWRS PER PREV XTND...AND GO DRY TUE AS SYS APRS              
TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND DRIER/MORE STBL AMS XPC TO TAKE HOLD FOR MIDWK            
PD.  SEE LTL REASON TO TINKER W GOING XTND FCST.                                
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
KHH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
941 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
ITS FRIDAY AND ALL WEEK LONG WE HAVE HAD A RIDGE...AND THEREFORE                
BASICALLY BENIGN WEATHER PARKED OVER US.  TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT.                
AGAIN THERE ARE LITTLE NUANCES...A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE TODAY AS              
SHOWN BE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING.  500MB HEIGHTS ARE 595 PLUS...                 
SURFACE PRESSURE ARE A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER...PWATS DOWN TO 1.78...              
ALTHOUGH US AND EYW ARE THE ONLY SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUCH                         
PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE.  THIS MORNINGS RADAR IS ECHO FREE...ANOTHER              
SIGN.  THE MESOETA AND RUC SHOW THIS SUBSIDENCE WEAKENING A BIT AS              
THE DAY PROGRESSES.  ONCE AGAIN THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT HIT THIS ON THE              
HEAD WITH THEIR FORECAST AND I PLAN NO CHANGES.                                 
.TBW...NONE.                                                                    
SOBIEN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1119 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                     
STRONG SFC LOW IS NOW CENTERED NE OF LOWER MI OVER ONTARIO. SFC-500             
MB CYCLONIC FLOW...1000-500 MB RH OF 70-80 PCT AND MARGINAL                     
INSTABILITY (CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS              
AND SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST            
VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING SKIES ACROSS WRN UPR MI AND WI AS FLOW            
BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC. MAIN ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IS TIMING THE                
ENDING OF THE SCT -SHRA AND THE DECREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AS THE SFC               
LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE.                                                          
LATEST RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW            
CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH AT 15Z EXTENDS FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THRU                 
CENTRAL UPR MI AND THEN SOUTHWARD THRU THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI.                   
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS BACK EDGE POINTS TOWARD LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT              
PRECIP LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES SW OF A LINE FROM              
PLN TO GLR TO OSC...THEN SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY AS FLOW BECOMES            
INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE.                 
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY FOR PLACES N OF            
THIS LINE IN ERN UPR AND FAR NE LOWER MI.                                       
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE TIMING MENTIONED ABOVE AND TO               
DECREASE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN LIGHT OF THE PROJECTED DELAY IN                
DECREASING CLOUDS.                                                              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                     
FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS HIGH TEMPS AND POTENTIAL OF SHRA OVER FAR             
W.                                                                              
WV IMAGERY SHOWS ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THRU THE ERN LAKES              
WHILE UPSTREAM ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WAS DROPPING S THRU                   
MANITOBA INTO THE MEAN TROF POSITION. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING                
PROGRESSING ACROSS FA THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES EWD.              
CLEARING LINE RUNS FROM ABOUT KMQT TO KMNM AT 1430Z. ALREADY                    
UPSTREAM...CLDS ADVANCING QUICKLY ACROSS NRN MN AHEAD OF NEXT                   
SHORTWAVE WITH RADARS INDICATING SOME SCT SHRA AS WELL. TSRA SHOWING            
UP ALONG COLD FRONT IN SERN MANITOBA/SWRN ONTARIO.                              
12Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE THRU MUCH OF THE LWR/MIDDLE               
TROPOSPHERE...AND K INDEX IS 34. DEEP MOISTURE RESULTING IN SCT SHRA            
AS THE AREA ACROSS MN/ONTARIO/MANITOBA IS IN DIFFLUENT REGION                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF 80KT 300MB JET EXTENDING FROM                  
HUDSON BAY TWD DAKOTAS PER 12Z RAOBS. 12Z RUC ALSO SHOWS BULLSEYE OF            
QVEC CONVERGENCE ACROSS THAT AREA. ORIENTATION OF UPPER JET DIRECTED            
TO THE SSW AND WELL W OF FA SUGGESTS THAT MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR             
UVM WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EWD AS IT IS DIRECTED MORE TO THE S                
ACROSS MN THAN E TWD UPPER MI THIS AFTN. THUS...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS               
SHRA ARE MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NRN MN...BELIEVE THESE               
SHRA WILL FALL APART AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM GENESIS REGION INTO A               
MORE STABLE/DRIER AIRMASS OVER FA PER 12Z KGRB SOUNDING WHICH HAD               
PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SO...WILL PULL MENTION OF LATE AFTN            
SHRA FROM FAR WRN FA. SEEMS LIKELY IT WILL BE EVENING HOURS BEFORE              
ANY SHRA MAKE IT AS FAR E AS KIWD.                                              
THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9C ACROSS FA EARLY THIS AFTN               
COMBINED WITH SFC DWPTS 10-13C WILL LEAD TO SCT/BKN CU DEVELOPMENT.             
THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR POTENTIAL. MIXING TO              
ABOUT 800MB ON KGRB SOUNDING AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELDS HIGHS AT THE              
UPPER BOUND IN THE MID 70S FOR THOSE AREAS WHICH SEE MOST SUN AND               
ARE AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR. THIS A BIT ABOVE WHAT TRAJECTORIES                   
INDICATE. MAY MAKE A FEW MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THIS               
AND LATEST OBS/SATELLITE.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                     
TEMPERATURES IN FRONT OF AC/SC DECK OVER KANSAS HAS INCREASED TO                
ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO NEAR 90 IN EXT SW              
MO...AND ALONG THE ARKANSAS BORDER WEST OF BRANSON. ELSEWHERE                   
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LATEST RUC/MESOETA              
HAVE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL MO AND               
MOVING IT SOUTHWARD INTO MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTN. WITH               
DEW POINTS INCREASING AND LAPS INFO INDICATING FURTHER                          
INSTABILITY...WITH LIKELY HAVE A FEW SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN IN AREA            
OF MAX HEATING IN SW MO.  ZONES SHOULD BE SENT BY 11 AM.                        
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
958 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
PCPN MOVING THRU THIS MORNING...PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH                  
LITTLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOTED.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED                
THRU THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY            
DRIER AIR WORKING IN PER SFC AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  THINK THAT THE            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW AND/OR STALL NEAR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES...              
WHERE RUC40 SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE CAPES OF 1500 TO              
2500 J/KG.  WEAK CONVERGENCE SEEMS LIKELY AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT                 
WESTERLY...SO I WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR OUR MTN ZONES            
THIS AFTERNOON (WHICH IS IN LINE WITH DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK).              
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME GOOD AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE TO BREAK OUT AND               
WE SHOULD REACH FORECASTED HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS.  I MAY MAKE                 
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD FOR EXTRM NE TN/SWRN VA GROUP...AND                  
CHECK RANGES IN MTN ZONES.  UPDATED ZONES BY AROUND 1030 AM OR SO.              
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA                                         
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
AM UPDATE PLANNED...                                                            
THIS AM'S SOUNDING SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE                      
FRONT...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR.                
BAND SCTD -SHRA XTNDS NE-SW ACRS WRN THIRD FA...MAKING SLOW PROGRESS            
EAST. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO WESTERN FA...ALONG            
WV-VA BRDR...THRU FAR WEST VA AND INTO ERN TN.  NOT A LOT OF PUSH               
BEHIND FRONT...SO THINKING IS IT WILL TAKE REST OF MORNING AND PART             
OF AFTN TO MOVE ACRS MTNS.  CONSEQUENCE HERE IS THAT MAY NEED TO                
BEEF UP WORDING ON CLD COVER FOR THIS AFTN. ALSO...LACK OF GOOD NW              
FLOW BEHIND FRONT UNTIL EVE HRS...AS PER RUC...AND DEEPER MOISTURE              
THAN ANTICIPATED OVER LOWER OHIO VLY...A`LA WATER VAPOR LOOP...                 
INDICATES NO REAL PRONOUNCED DRYING BEHIND SYSTEM. BEST CHC OF TSRA             
STILL LOOKS TO BE EASTERN ZONES LATE AFTN-EVE HRS. TEMPS MAY ALSO               
NEED LWRG A CAT OVER WESTERN GROUPS WITH PROLONGED CLD COVER...WILL             
DECIDE AFTER 10 AM ON THESE.                                                    
.RNK...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
150 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
18Z MOSAIC OF KSGF/KEAX RADARS SHOWS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                    
DEVELOPING OVER SW MISSOURI...WITH MORE GENERAL RAIN COVERAGE OVER              
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS KANSAS. ANOTHER STRONGER 500 MB             
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE MINNESOTA/CANADIAN BORDER.             
THE PRECIP FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS HINGES ON THESE TWO                  
SHORTWAVES.                                                                     
ETA/NGM/AVN AGREE THAT THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE WILL BECOME THE                   
DOMINANT SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI                 
VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...NOW LOCATED OVER              
KANSAS...IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT MOVES EAST. AVN IS SLOWEST              
TO WEAKEN THIS WAVE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH AVN MOS POPS            
FOR TONIGHT. RUC/ETA BOTH INDICATE 850 MB LEVEL WILL STEADILY                   
MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. SCATTERED                    
SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST             
AREA TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE WEST.                                
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SATURDAY MORNING...CLOUDS               
MAY BREAK FOR A WHILE. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF CONVECTION             
IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STRONGER                    
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR SOME                 
THREAT OF SEVERE...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SURFACE               
DEW POINTS AROUND 70. MODELS AGREE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL               
CROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 06Z SUNDAY...AND BE EAST OF THE              
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY.                                                    
ON SUNDAY...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN                  
COUNTIES...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. SOME WRAPAROUND LOW LEVEL                     
CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST UNDER COLDER AIR ALOFT. COOLER AND LESS                 
HUMID AIR WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.                                               
FOR TEMPERATURES...AVN/NGM MOS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL FOLLOW.                     
EXTENDED FORECAST... 12Z AVN SUPPORTS LAST NIGHTS MRF TREND OF                  
BUILDING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK. THIS             
WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO SUMMERTIME HEAT...WITH AN                    
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.                                                 
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
210 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                      
QUESTION FOR THE DAY IS WHETHER CONV WILL FIRE LT THIS AFTN INTO THIS           
EVENING.                                                                        
19Z SFC MAP SHOWS PREFNTL TROUGH ROUGHLY ALG A ONL TO MCK LINE IN               
REFLECTION OF UPR TROF DIGGING ACRS SD ATTM. PLUME OF STEEP MID LVL             
LAPSE RATES AHD OF THIS FTR COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LVL WAA AS             
WINDS CONT TO BACK AHD OF UPR TROF...ALL LEADING TO A SMALL BUT                 
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID LVL CLDS/SHOWERS FM ODX BACK TO W TO BFF.                
DESTABILIZATION CONTS UNABATED ACRS MOST OF CWA WITH 18Z TEMPS                  
RUNNING WELL ABV 12Z GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO MID               
60S...ALL LEADING TO SIG INSTABILITY THIS AFTN.                                 
12Z ETA/NGM ALG WITH LATEST RUC ALL POINTING TO CONV INITIATION ALG             
SFC TROF ARND 21Z ALG A OLU TO EAR LINE. BELIEVE WITH MOST LOCALES              
SITTING AT CONV TEMP ALREADY AND DECENT SFC CVRG ALG BNDRY ESP FM               
GRI EAST...THINGS SHLD POP. WOULD XPC ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO MID               
EVENING EAST BEFORE PRIMARY COLD FNT ASSOCD/W SIG UPR TROF OVR                  
MANITOBA SWEEPS PRECIP S AND E. CAA ASSOCD/W COLD FNT LAGGING                   
THIS AFTN AND IS NOT PROGGED INTO CWA UNTIL SAT AM SO XPC TEMPS                 
TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. HIGHS SAT WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN PROGGED           
EARNEST LOW LVL CAA OFFSET BY INSOLATION. GOING NUMBERS IN THE                  
BALLPARK. BUILDING RIDGE SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO COOL NIGHT BUT WARMUP           
COMMENCES SUN AS FLW SHIFT S AND UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AHD OF               
UPSTREAM TROF OVR SW CANADA.                                                    
IN THE EXTNDD...MED RANGE MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR WITH EVOLUTION OF               
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF ALG THE W COAST AND EWD SHIFT/FLATTENING OF UPR             
RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVR PERSISTENT LEE SIDE TROF AND             
NIGHTLY MCS CLUSTERS TIED TO NOCTURNAL JET. AT THIS POINT...ITS                 
FRIVOLOUS TO TRY AND PIN ANYTHING DOWN AND WILL BROAD-BRUSH TUE-THU             
TIME FRAME. HWVR MORE CONFIDENT THAT AS RIDGE SHIFTS E...AND NAO                
CONTS IN INCREASINGLY POSITIVE PHASE...THAT RTN TO ABV NORMAL TEMPS             
IN STORE FOR CWA.                                                               
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
TEH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1139 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2001                                                     
UPDATED ZNS TO TAKE OUT MORNING WORDING. LEFT ISOLD COVERAGE TERMS              
IN NE ZNS SINCE LATEST RUC PAINTING QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP IN THAT               
AREA THIS AFTN. WEAK SHRTWV NOTED ON MORNING UA/PROFILER ACROSS WRN             
KS WILL SLIDE E SKIRTING NE ZNS THIS AFTN AND WITH OUTFLOW FM                   
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS                
REASONABLE. ELSWHR...TOO EARLY YET TO TELL WHO WILL BE LUCKY ONES               
TODAY TO SEE ISOLD DOWNPOURS...YET ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY MOIST WITH             
PWS 140 PERCENT NORMAL. WITH AFTN HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...              
CAPES SHOULD EXCEED 1500 J/KG SO SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AGAIN.                
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tx