AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2000                                                     
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN FAST ACTIVE ZNL             
FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MDLS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING PROBLEMS IN              
DEALING WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH SHORTWAVE IN THIS TYPE OF         
PATTERN.                                                                        
ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE AFFECTED THE AREA OVRNGT WITH TRACE AMTS OF -RA/PE.          
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW WELL E OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVR THE OH         
VLY THIS MORNING WL TRACK EWD PASSING JUST TO OUR N THIS AFT/EVE.               
DECENT WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IS                 
RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVR SW VA AND WV TRACKING ENE.           
06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WL LINGER INTO EARLY EVE AS           
THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE N...THEN PCPN SHUD CUT OFF WELL BFR             
MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WL APPROACH ON MON MORNING...PASSING          
THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT WL CROSS THE         
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                      
AS FAR AS THE FCST IS CONCERNED...WILL BUMP POPS UP ALL AREAS FOR THIS          
AFTERNOON. SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME          
COOL AIR DAMMING E OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WL HOLD MAX TEMPS           
DOWN A BIT AND I ADJUSTED THEM AS NEEDED. WL LET THE CHC OF RA LINGER           
INTO EARLY TNGT THEN BRING THE CHC BACK IN LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...NO            
CHGS 2ND AND 3RD PDS.                                                           
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
DMW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                      
OVERNIGHT FCST CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIP AND WHAT FORM PRECIP              
WILL TAKE.                                                                      
WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE THIS EVENING....ONE                 
MOVING INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...ANOTHER IN NE MANITOBA AND A THIRD              
MOVING INTO E MONTANA. REFLECTION OF N SHORTWAVE IS A 987 SFC LOW IN            
NE MANITOBA. A TROF EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW S TO MISSOURI WHERE A                 
WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED...ASSOCIATED WITH THE S SHORTWAVE.                   
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN NE IA/SE MN AND                   
S/CNTRL WI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CI SHIELD ENHANCING/FANNING OUT SOME IN            
SAME AREA INDICATING UPPER DIVG INCREASING AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF               
JET COMES INTO PLAY.                                                            
PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND RAPIDLY UPSTREAM OVER NEXT SEVERAL             
HOURS AS UPPER DIVG ACTS ON MOISTENING LOW/MID LEVELS. QUESTION THEN            
BECOMES WHAT FORM WILL PRECIP TAKE WHEN IT REACHES/DEVELOPS OVER FA.            
00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 1100FT THICK LAYER ABOVE FREEZING                  
CENTERED AROUND 925MB. AT ITS WARMEST POINT...TEMP IS LESS THAN                 
1C...AND SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...TEMP IN MOIST                 
LAYER IS ABOVE -10C...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP. BOTH 00Z GRB AND APX            
SOUNDINGS A BIT COOLER THAN MODELS PROGGED. ETA/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS              
SHOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM SFC TO ABOUT 900MB MAX OVERNIGHT WITH            
MAX TEMP AROUND 1C...EXCEPT 2C OVER FAR SCNTRL/SE FA. THESE                     
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SLEET...AND THUS EXPECT SNOW/RAIN AS                   
CURRENT FCST INDICATES. 00Z RUC/18Z ETA SHOW 1000-850MB THICKNESS               
ACROSS FA AROUND 1305M OVERNIGHT...ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF MIX. WITH                 
WARMEST ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ACROSS FAR S/SE FA...RAIN POTENTIAL                
GREATEST THERE. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM AS                  
DISCUSSED ABOVE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF MIX ALL NIGHT FOR E/SE FA AS             
OPPOSED TO HITTING RAIN HARDEST.                                                
TEMPS ARE WAVERING AROUND 32F...SO FREEZING RAIN A THREAT. GRB                  
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT AT LEAST AT ONSET...TEMP IN MOIST LAYER WARMER              
THAN -10C AND WILL PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. PER COORD WITH                
GRB/APX WILL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVY FOR BARAGA/IRON EASTWARD TO                   
ACCOUNT FOR A LIKELY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP WILL BE                    
LIGHT...BUT ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CREATE DRIVING PROBLEMS.            
FREEZING RAIN THREAT LEAST NEAR THE LAKES.                                      
BEST PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD COME IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS 00Z               
RUC SHOWS UPPER DIVG MAXIMIZED AROUND 12Z JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROF.             
TIMING OF DIMINISHING PRECIP MON STILL LOOKS GOOD.                              
COORD WITH APX/GRB.                                                             
.MQT...WINTER WX ADVY OVERNIGHT MIZ004>007-010>014.                             
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                      
...FOG IS MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...                                                
VIS IMAGERY SHEDDING LIGHT ON EXTENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER UPR              
MI. BR/FG WIDESPREAD IN DICKINSON/IRON COUNTY WITH FLP SUPPORTING               
CONTINUATION THU AFTERNOON. SW COUNTIES REMAIN M SUNNY WHILE BKN SC             
DECK DISSIPATING IN CMX PER ASOS/PHONE CALL TO OBSERVER. ELSEHWERE              
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PATCHY FOG LINGERING. LOWERED TEMPS IN                        
DICKINSON/IRON COUNTIES TO REFLECT REDUCED ISOLATION.                           
WATCHING ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT THRU WI W/ SFC DEWPTS IN THE 30S/FG              
SURGING NORTH BEHIND FRONT. MESOETA/RUC AGREE THAT THIS LL MOISTURE             
WILL NOT ADVECT INTO S CWA UNTIL 21-00Z.                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
ADVISORY: WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACRS CURRENTLY DEFINED               
AREA. 00Z RUC INDICATES SFC TROF SLOWLY WORKING EAST OVERNIGHT...               
AND WOULD EXPECT SOME DRYING OF LOW LVLS LATE. HOWEVER...SFC MOIST              
ADV WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN WI/E CNTRL MN THRU 12Z.                            
PCPN: WILL ENHANCE PCPN WORDING ACRS WRN WI TONIGHT. EVENING UPR AIR            
ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT 700-500MB TROF ACRS ERN GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD          
OF THIS FEATURE...300MB JET STREAK EXTENDED FM SW MO TO SW WI.                  
BAROCLINIC LEAF HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER ERN IA/WI. NEXT UPSTREAM             
SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ACRS MT. OVERNIGHT...MT SYSTEM WILL DIG SE...            
CAUSING THE LEAD TROF TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THEN EJECT.               
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY ACRS WRN WI/ERN MN LATER TONIGHT.                
QG PROGS SHOW SOME SATURATED EPV ADV LATER TONIGHT IN THE MID                   
LEVELS...WITH DECENT UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ON THE LFQ OF JET                       
STREAK. THERE IS ALSO ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY...AND 295K MIXING                 
RATIOS ARE NR 2 G/KG. 18Z ETA OMEGA FIELDS SHOW STG FORCING                     
CENTERED OVER THE -15C ISOTHERM. CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES                   
INDICATE A MINOR WARM LAYER JUST OF THE SURFACE...BUT LARGE SCALE               
ASCENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL THIS TO BELOW 0 C. THEREFORE...WILL               
ENHANCE SNOW WORDING FM THE TWIN CITIES EWD INTO THE EAU AREA...                
AND REMOVE FZRA AS A RA TO SN CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR.                          
OTHER: WILL UPDATE CURRENT FCSTS FOR WORDING...AS WELL AS TO IMPLY              
IMPROVING VSBYS LATE. THX TO ARX FOR COORD.                                     
.MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT MNZ052-053-060>063-069-070-                   
076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-023>028.                                         
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORRECTION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2000                                                       
SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS STRATUS AND FOG MOVING UP FROM SOUTH.            
BOTH 06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING UP              
INTO  SE MN AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON FOG                   
ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. WILL MENTION AREAS OF DENSE            
FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN             
A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE ..CONCERNS ARE THE PRECIP               
CHANCES FOR LATER INTO THIS EVENING..AND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.                   
OVERALL..LIKE AVN MODEL. IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEST HANDLE ON VORT               
PATTERN OVER ROCKIES AT AROUND 06Z AND HAS VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR            
LAST 3 RUNS. ETA AND NGM HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SHARPER UPPER                  
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BEST LAYER (850-700) Q                  
VECTOR CONV FAVORS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BETTER              
PRECIPITABLE WATER COMES INTO PLAY OVER EASTERN MN THIS EVENING. PV             
AT 400 MB PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF MN BUT ADVECTION DECENT INTO SE MN            
AND WESTERN WI THIS EVENING. BASED ON PAST PRECIP PATTERNS DURING               
LAST MONTH OR SO..WILL FAVOR EASTERN CWA FOR THIS EVENING AND UP                
POPS OVER MOS...CLOSER TO AVN.                                                  
FOR MONDAY...THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT LOOKING AT DPROG/DT ON               
AVN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VORT SLIDING TOWARD MN/IA BORDER AREA.             
FORECAST LAPSE RATES (7000-500) QUITE STEEP ON MONDAY..NEAR 7.5 C.              
WILL AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW..PRIMARILY NE PART OF CWA.                 
LOOKS WINDY IN SW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH COLD ADVECTION.                 
.MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS                                                  
MORNING..MNZ074>078..MNZ082>085..MNZ091>093                                     
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
237 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
STRONG WESTERLIES WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WILL PROVIDE AN ACTIVE PATTERN            
WITH TEMPS A CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT FCST.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS                 
STILL A SHORT TERM CHC OF SHOWERS...AND WINDS WILL BE IMPORTANT                 
MONDAY.                                                                         
IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER DIFL AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVN ARE EXPANDING            
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT.  A BIG QUESTION              
IS WHETHER MILD AND MOIST AIR AT LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE            
HALF OF THE CWA...CAN BE WORKED INTO THE MIX TO PRODUCE SHOWERS.  AT            
THE MOMENT RADAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY WK ECHOES ALOFT...AND 18Z            
RUC DOES NOT SHOW POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EITHER.  FOR NOW WILL TRIM              
THE FCST BACK TO SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVE...BUT KEEP A WARY EYE              
ON THE RADAR UNTIL THE ZONES GO OUT.                                            
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...EXCEPT THAT BY 48 HRS THE ETA             
HAS CHOSEN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLN THAN NGM OR                
ESPECIALLY AVN.  THIS GIVES CANADIAN AIR MORE TIME TO PENETRATE INTO            
THE AREA.  SEE BELOW FOR MY REASONS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS             
WITH THIS FCST.                                                                 
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD ALONG WITH UPSTREAM AIRMASS.  WINDS            
WILL ALSO REMAIN UP SOMEWHAT AS SFC LOW IN SRN PLAINS MOVES                     
NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS.  WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREV FORECAST WITH               
20S NORTH AND AROUND 30 SOUTH.                                                  
MONDAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE WINDY AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN...                  
SPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.  MODEL GUID DEPICTS ADIABATIC MIXING AS             
DEEP AS 750 MB DURING THE AFTN WITH WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL FROM SFC              
UP TO THE JET LEVEL.  WILL BOOST THE WIND FCST TO AT LEAST AS STRONG            
AS NGM MOS AND USE 850 TEMPS +9 OR 10C AS A FIRST GUESS FOR HIGH.               
AS MIXING DEEPENS...CLOUDS SHOULD FORM IN THE AFTN...BUT SINKING                
MOTION AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN                  
REACHING THE GROUND.                                                            
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO DIE MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH            
TO PRODUCE MIN TEMPS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN NGM MOS.  BELIEVE THAT             
NGM IS CLOSER ON THE WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BLOW RIGHT UP TO THE SFC              
RIDGE IN THIS SITUATION.  AVN MOS IS FAVORED...AND COULD EVEN GO A              
FEW DEG ABOVE THAT.                                                             
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DECLINE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM ADVN PATTERN SETS             
UP.  MODELS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 12Z DUE TO WARM               
ADVN ALOFT...BUT AVN DRIES THE SOUNDING OUT LATER.  THIS APPEARS                
REASONABLE AS FLOW REMAINS STRONG WRLY ALOFT AND LIFT IS LACKING.               
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH BARE GROUND...ALTHOUGH WEAK            
MIXING WILL NOT HELP.  AVN IS AGAIN FAVORED OVER COOLER NGM...AND               
BOTH COULD END UP COLD.  BOTH MODELS HAVE LATELY TENDED TO PREDICT              
UPSTREAM 12Z 850 TEMPS 3-5C TOO COLD OVER NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA            
EVEN AT 12 HRS.  THIS ERROR SEEMED TO CARRY THROUGH ALL THE WAY TO              
48 HRS YESTERDAY...AS COMPARABLE 24HR AVN IS NOW ABOUT 2C WARMER                
THAN YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION OVER THE AREA AND STILL TRENDING UPWARDS.             
IN EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WELL ABOVE MRF/NCEP MAX TEMPS ON              
WED.  A STNRY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER             
WITH VERY MILD 850 TEMPS TO THE SOUTH...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 50S             
RATHER THAN THE 40S EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE SD BORDER.  WILL NOT                
FIGHT GUIDANCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.           
DRY PATTERN CONTINUES.                                                          
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
POLLACK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1004 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                      
INVERTED SFC TROF HAS SET UP ALONG THE CST W/ MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING             
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS ALONG IT. BOTH LATEST RUC & MESO-ETA SHOW A               
SINGLE PRIMARY LO MOVING UP THE CST THRU THE AFTN ALONG W/ AN UPR               
S/WV. ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED FROM THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS ANOTHER            
VORT PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ALSO SEEING AREA               
OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EWD AS WELL. AS EXPECTED THE ATMOS HAS            
MOISTENED QUITE A BIT IN 24HR W/ 12Z MHX & CHS RAOBS EACH SHOWING               
PWATS GREATER THAN 1. COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS H7-H8 FLOW             
BACKS TO MORE SW AHEAD OF TROF NOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NEAREST              
PRECIP ON 88D MOSAIC STILL BACK W OF A KDAN-KGSO-KCLT-KAND LINE &               
MOVING NE. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS BUT WILL WORD AS LATE AFTN. BEST              
INSTABILITIES STILL WELL OFFSHORE BUT CREEP BACK TOWARD CST THRU THE            
DAY... WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION OF TRW.                                
TEMPS MAY NEED TO COME DOWN BASED ON LO-LVL THICKNESSES FROM MORNING            
SOUNDINGS & LAMP GUIDANCE (WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON 15Z                  
TEMPS). WILL PROBABLY DROP A CAT W/ THIS UPDATE.                                
CWF: WINDS TRULY VRB OUT THERE ATTM W/ FPSN7 SHOWING N WINDS 10-                
15KT & 41004 SE LESS THAN 5KT. WILL MAINTAIN VRB BECMG SW S OF LITTLE           
RIVER BUT WILL DECIDE ON INITIAL DIRECTION N OF THERE BASED ON LATER            
REPORTS.                                                                        
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
939 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
BASED ON SATELLITE...SFC OBS...THE LATEST RUC AND ETA...THE CURRENT             
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...NO UPDATES             
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
345 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000                                                      
THINGS ARE BUSY WITH SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL MAKE THIS SHORT AND                 
SWEET. RUC MODEL SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY SO MOST OF THE RAIN            
SHOULD BE OVER BY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY             
BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                  
BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SEVERAL UPDATES THIS              
MORNING AS BOXES EXPIRE AND WEATHER MOVES THROUGH.                              
ATL 65/41/63/38 3000             MCN 71/39/67/36 4000                           
AHN 62/37/63/37 5000             CSG 69/42/66/38 2000                           
RMG 59/35/58/31 2000                                                            
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
440 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT INCLUDE PCPN TYPE AND POTENTIAL            
SNOW AMOUNTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO LES POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT               
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
MID/UPR LVL PATTERN FEATURES FAST ZONAL FLOW INTO WEST CONUS WITH               
TROFFING INTO NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE RDG HOLDS ON OVER THE              
EAST. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS THAT WILL            
AFFECT UPR MI. ONE WAS LIFTING FROM ERN IA INTO WI WHILE ANOTHER                
STRONG SHRTWV LURKED UPSTREAM OVER ERN MONTANA. IR LOOP SHOWED                  
EXTENSIVE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER WRN GRT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH            
WI SHRTWV AND UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET OVER ERN                   
ONTARIO. AREA RADARS AND SFC OBS SHOWED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPR MI AND            
NW HLF OF WI. MOSTLY -SN REPORTED WITH RAIN MAINLY FROM MNM TO ESC              
AND ISQ NEAR WARMING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DEEPER MOISTURE THAT MOVED             
IN AFT 06Z WAS ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND CHANGE                 
-FZDZ TO -SN OVER CNTRL UPR MI.                                                 
MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING MAJOR FEATURES AFFECTING               
UPR MI AND WITH LLVL THERMAL FIELDS. SO...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED               
ETA WITH BETTER LLVL RESOLUTION.                                                
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OFF A BIT FROM SW TO             
NE BTWN 15Z-18Z AS BEST 700-300 QVECTOR CONV WITH WI SHRTWV LIFTS               
TOWARD ERN LK SUPERIOR. WL NOT GET FANCY WITH TRYING TO END PCPN                
THIS AFTERNOON AS QVECTOR FORCING WITH MT SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD UPR MI            
WITH ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR PERIOD OF PCPN AGAIN LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT LLVL CONVERGENCE                
VCNTY OVER DEEPENING SFC LO AND TROF ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO              
SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF PCPN.                                                  
ETA TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD SLIGHTLY COLDER LLVL TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS              
09/12Z RUN. ETA/RUC FCST 850-1000 THICKNESS BRINGS 1305M LINE NEAR              
MQT-IMT LINE AT 18Z. FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW LYR BLO 925 MB ABV            
0C OVER CNTRL UPR MI BY 18Z. WL WORD MAINLY AS SNOW WITH POSSIBILITY            
OF RAIN MIX NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEPER WARM LYR. TO THE                       
SOUTHEAST...WARM LYR INCREASES UP TO 875 MB. SO...WL KEEP GREATER               
EMPHASIS ON LIQUID PCPN. WITH TEMPS ALREADY ABV FREEZING WHERE ANY              
RAIN EXPECTED...WL NOT MENTION -FZRA. MOVEMENT OF SFC LO EAST OF UPR            
MI BY 00Z AND ATTENDANT CAA SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TO SNOW FOR ALL BUT              
SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. ETA QPF SUGGESTS 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY              
AND UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH 10/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO IN                    
RELATIVELY WARM TEMP PROFILE. EXPECT -SN TO TAPER TO SCT -SHSN                  
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DEPARTS.             
MDL DIFFERENCES ARISE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ETA...AS                        
USUAL...MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS 4-6C MORE              
THAN NGM/AVN WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INVERSION HGTS. WL GO WITH             
COMPROMISE WEIGHTED TOWARD NGM/AVN. ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SHSN WITH               
DLT/T TO AROUND 20C. 300-330 FLOW WL FAVOR ONT-P59 AND AREAS EAST OF            
MQT. WL KEEP MENTION OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH BNDRY            
LYR WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND STRONG CAA.                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
915 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
NW/SE SFC RDG ACRS NEW ENG AT 01Z WHILE SFC FNT EXTENDED FM SRN QUE             
TO JUST N OF GRTLKS. 00Z KALY SOUNDING MAINTAINED DRY WEDGE IN                  
LOWEST 35 HND FT OR SO WHILE KBUF WAS SHOWING GREATER DISTRIBUTION              
OF LOW-MID LVL MSTR. SFC DWPNTS ARE DEPICTING A GRADUAL UPTICK...BUT            
LATEST RUC RUN SHOWS VOT MAX ROAMING THRU SRN SXNS OF NY THRU BAL OF            
EVNG. LOOKS LIKE SOME BACKPEDALLING IN ORDER ON OVRNGT POPS PER                 
RADAR COVERAGE TRENDS.  KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE H8 JET OF 47 KTS OUT             
OF THE SW THIS EVNG. FOR MON...MODELS BRING THAT H8 JET CORE ACRS NY            
AND INTENSIFY IT ACRS VT TWD THE END OF THE PD...ATTM SEEMS CURRENT             
FCST TREATMENT OUGHT TO COVER SITUATION.  MCKINLEY/GEW                          
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
933 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
A NUMBER OF FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE             
REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW CWFA IN A WEAK WEDGE CONFIGURATION...WITH              
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE 40S MOST AREAS...WHILE DISCERNIBLE                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD;                     
DEWPOINT AT COLUMBIA IS 56. CURRENT CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D AND                 
SURROUNDING RADARS MOVING WITH THE MEAN WIND...WITH HIGHER                      
REFELECTIVITIES (AND LIGHTNING) SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.                  
LATEST RUC THETA E PLOT TAKES THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INTO OUR              
SOUTHEAST MOST CWFA (INCLUDING CHARLOTTE METRO AREA) AFTER                      
MIDNIGHT...BUT KEEPS HOLD OF A DEFINITE WEDGE CONFIGURATION IN NORTH            
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GSP/AND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAKES              
SENSE GIVEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DISPLAYED            
ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; OFTEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF              
CWFA CAUSES AGEOSTROPHIC SURFACE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE DAMMING REGION              
THAT RESULT IN KEEPING FOOTHILLS VERY STABLE UNTIL LATE.                        
WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE LOSING ITS                     
INFLUENCE ON CWFA WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CAUSE OUR                  
WEATHER TO GET INTERESTING CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERLAY OF 18Z MESO-ETA MID LEVEL ANALYSES SHOW             
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE...BUT BASED ON 00Z UPPER AIR                
ANALYSIS...UPPER LEVEL WIND ENERGY A TAD STRONGER THAN FORECAST...              
WITH PLUME OF 50KT 70H WINDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS...               
WHEREAS 12Z MODELS PROJECTED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45 KTS IN              
THE SAME AREA BY 00Z.                                                           
PEACHTREE CITY AND GREENSBORO SOUNDINGS BOTH CAPPED AT 00Z...                   
ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION AT PEACHTREE CITY MUCH WEAKER...WITH EVIDENCE            
OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT PRESENT THERE. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS                  
STILL SHOW A POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE...ONE THAT FREQUENTLY                
PRODUCES WEAK TORNADOES IN OUR CWFA WHEN SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE                 
PRESENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS. ALTHOUGH THE UPSTREAM                   
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING CWFA MONDAY MORNING AT            
A TIME WHEN WE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER...WE WILL              
KEEP THUNDER IN ALL ZONES AS PRESENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THIS UPDATE...           
INCLUDING THUNDER CHANCE IN CHARLOTTE GROUPING...WHERE RUC TAKES                
HIGHER DEWPOINTS EARLIER THAN ZONES TO ITS WEST.                                
NEXT CONCERN IS MOUNTAIN WINDS. OBVIOUSLY...WINDS ALOFT STRONGER                
THAN FORECAST UPSTREAM BUT THE PRESENCE OF INVERSION AT PEACHTREE               
CITY MAKES ME SUSPICIOUS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR                
DAYBREAK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...PLAN TO LOWER MOUNTAIN WINDS TO                    
BREEZY...10 TO 20 AND GUSTY. MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO              
ANALYZE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND POST WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS              
BEFORE THE HIGHER WINDS DEVELOP...IF NECESSARY.                                 
WITH RUC INSISTING THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS                       
MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE A PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...FEEL TEMPERATURES              
HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REACHED THEIR LOWS AND WILL CHANGE ZONES TO               
REFLECT NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.                  
GSP WILL ISSUE UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK LATER THIS EVENING.               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
345 AM MST  MONDAY  JANUARY 10 2000                                             
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  WHAT A NIGHT WE HAD UP IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS              
OF CO...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND NEXT TO                 
IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS.  AUTOMATED WIND SENSORS ATOP LOVELAND            
AND BERTHOUD PASSES AND AT THE EISENHOWER TUNNEL HV MEASURED GUSTS              
BTWN 70 AND 85 MPH SINCE MIDNIGHT.  A CALL UP TO IKE TUNNEL SHRTLY              
AFT 10Z REVEALED BLIZZARD CNDTNS GOING ON.  TUNNEL PERSONNEL SAID               
WINDS WERE SO STRONG MUCH OF THE FALLEN SNOW (ABOUT 6-8 INCHES SINCE            
6PM SAT) HAD BLOWN OFF AND PILED UP INTO DEEP DRIFTS ALONG SIDE I-70            
AT THE EAST PORTAL OF THE TUNNEL.  WINDS HV NOT BEEN AS STG IN THE              
FTHLS...ALTHOUGH GUSTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS HV BEEN IN THE 30              
TO 65 MPH RANGE.  HV NOT SEEN MUCH WIND ON THE PLNS...XCPT FOR LCL              
GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARND LYONS...GOLDEN AND W SIDE OF FT COLLINS UP              
NR HORSETOOTH RESERVOIR.                                                        
SEE A CONTINUATION OF STG W-NWLY WNDS AND PDS OF SNOW/HVY AT TIMES              
IN THE MTNS AND HIR FNT RNG FTHLS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH                    
120-130KT JET REMAINING OVRHD.  CLOUDS APR TO HV THINNED A BIT IN               
THE HIGH COUNTRY PAST HR OR SO BUT RUC AND 06Z/ETA RH/SPEC HUM CROSS            
SECTIONS SHOW LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN THIS MRNG AS             
NXT WV OF PAC MSTR DROPS SEWRD OUT OF ID.  OROGRAPHIC SNOW MDL FOR              
THE PD 4AM-4PM TODAY CAME UP WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-10 INCHES ON UPR              
W-NW SLOPES IN MTN ZNS 33/34 USING A 16:1 WATER TO SNOW RATIO.                  
DOUBT WE'LL SEE UPR SNOW AMT WITH MID-LVL WAA INCREASING STATIC                 
STABILITY NR MTN TOP LVL AND WITH WK DOWNWARD QG FORCING MOVG OVR               
AREA DURING AFTN HRS.  SUSPECT NEW SNOW AMTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF               
4-8 INCHES ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-4               
INCHES IN THE VLYS.  THEREFORE WITH STG NWLY WINDS AND SNOW XPCTD TO            
CONT TODAY WILL CONT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZNS 33 AND 34.  WILL              
ALSO CONT HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR FNT RNG FTHLS WITH STRONGEST              
GUSTS (IN THE 60-80 MPH RNG) PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS ABV 8500 FT             
MSL.  WILL KP GUSTY WNDS IN FOR ADJCNT LOWER ELEVTNS WHERE LCL GUSTS            
TO 40 MPH WILL BE PSBL WITHIN CHINOOK WIND ZONE W OF I-25.  OTWS...             
XPCT TO SEE A WIDE RNG IN TEMPS ACRS THE PLNS DUE TO WARMING EFFECTS            
OF ADIABATIC COMPRESSION ALG THE FTHLS.  OVRALL MOS TEMP GUIDANCE               
LOOKS REASONABLE.  BAKER                                                        
LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  SNOW AND BLOW FCST FOR MTNS INTO TUES STILL              
LOOKS GUD AS STG 120-130KT JET OVER AREA.  MODELS AGREE VERY WELL               
THAT FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK TO WLY TUES AND BECOME WSWLY WED.  ENUF              
MSTR AVBL WITH STG ORGRPHC LIFTING PLUS PSBLY SOME MORE CSI BANDS               
TO EXTEND WNTR STRM WARNG THRU TNGT.  BLIZZARD WRNG MIGHT BE LITTLE             
MORE APPROPRIATE...BUT WHY CONFUSE THE ISSUE SNC WNTR STRM WARNING              
ALREADY IN EFFECT.  AS PREV SHIFTS STATED DO EXPECT SNOW TO DCRS TMW            
AS FLOW BACKS AND WKNS SLGTLY WITH JET LIFTING NWD INTO WY.  SHT WVS            
EMBEDDED IN FLOW MVG TO RPDLY TO TIME PROPERLY AND NOT EVEN SURE CAN            
DISCERN THEM THAT WELL IN THIS STG WIND PTRN THRFR BROADBRUSH OF SNOW           
SNOW/BLWG SNOW/WINDY WILL BE WAY TO WORD ZONES.  AS FOR SNOW AMTS               
WILL SEE ANOTHER 2-4 OR 5 INCHES TNGT IN MTNS WITH LESSER AMTS IN               
ZONES 30...32...37 AS WAA STBLZS AMS AND REDUCES IMPACT OF STG                  
ORGRPHC LIFTING.                                                                
IN ERN CO PCPN NOT A PRBLM WITH STG CHINOOK IN EFFECT BUT QUESTION              
IS WHAT TO DO ABOUT HI WIND WRNG IN FTHLS.  WITH JET OVERHEAD STILL             
VULNERABLE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO FTHL AREAS TNGT HWVR WAA MEANS             
TEMP PROFILE NOT FAVORABLE TO TRAP MTN WAVE ENERGY AS ALREADY STATED            
IN PREV AFDS.  ON THE FENCE ABOUT EXTENDING IT INTO TONIGHT BUT HAVE            
DECIDED TO LET IT DIE SINCE TIME SXNS SHOW PEAK WINDS TNGT AROUND               
60 KTS.  WILL MENTN GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH.  LOWER ELVNS WILL HAVE                
EVEN LOWER GUSTS BECAUSE OF UNFAVORABLE STABILITY PROFILE PLUS SFC              
GRADIENT SHUD BE EASING ESPCLY IF WEAK SURGE/CD FNT ARVS AS HINTED              
AT BY MDLS.                                                                     
FOR LONGER TERM FLAT RDG TO MOVE INTO ROCKIES THURS AS TROF DVLPS               
FURTHER OVER ERN PAC.  THIS WILL PUSH JET EVEN FURTHER N OF CO BUT              
STILL SHUD BE STG ENUF GRAD TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN MTNS TIL THURS.              
MSTR TO DCRS WITH BACKING FLOW HWVR STILL ENUF TO KEEP CHC IN MTNS              
THRU EFP PD AS ORGRPHCS STILL IN FORCE ALBEIT WEAKER.  DWNSLP FLOW              
IN ERN CO SO NO POPS THRU EFP BUT A WEAK CD FNT TO MOVE INTO AREA               
WED NGT/ERLY THURS WITH SFC HI MOVING ACRS NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS               
WHICH MAY GENERATE BRF UPSLP PERIOD HERE.  THIS TO LOWER TEMPS FEW              
DEGREES THURS OTRW SHUD BE UNSEASONABLY MILD TUES-FRI.                          
BOODA                                                                           
.DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL                 
       MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34.                                             
    ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS                    
       ZONES 35 AND 36.                                                         
    ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR                     
       HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ZONES 30..32..AND 37.                            
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
945 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
STILL DON/T FEEL THAT I HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITN FOR THE REST OF          
THE NIGHT. AREAS OF DZ/FZDZ HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MY FCST AREA. IN                
ADDITION...SOME -RA HAS DEVELOPED IN E-C WI. EXAMINATION OF LAPS                
SOUNDINGS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR GRB SUGGEST THAT THE MOIST LAYER WL        
REMAIN AOA -10C THROUGH 09Z...SO THERE WL PROBABLY NOT BE ANY ICE               
CRYSTALS INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL AS A LIQUID          
WHICH WL FREEZE ON CONTACT IN AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAIN BLO FREEZING.        
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CHANGE TO FROZEN PCPN AT AUW/RHI WL             
OCCUR EARLIER. HV ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROADWAYS ICING UP OVER NE         
WI. AM CONCERNED THAT A BAND FROM C-NE WI COULD GET A DECENT PERIOD OF          
FZDZ BEFORE PCPN CHANGES. N-C WI LIKELY TO CHANGE SOONER...BUT SOME FZDZ        
LIKELY THERE ALSO. WL BE ISSUING A WINTER WX ADV FOR NC/NE/C WI AND             
EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR E-C WI INTO EARLY MONDAY.                     
UPDATED ZFP/WSW/NOW WL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                                       
COORD W LSE...DLH...AND MQT.                                                    
.GRB...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY                              
       WIZ022-038>040-048>050-                                                  
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY                         
       WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045-                              
SKOWRONSKI                                                                      
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
924 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND UPDATE TIMING OF                 
LGT PRECIP.                                                                     
DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE MOVG ACRS MOST OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SFC                
TROF NOW THRU WRN MN AND WRN IA. PRECIP ALIGNED WITH GOOD UPR LVL H3            
DIVERGENCE DEPICTED BY THE 00Z RUC. ENHANCED CLDS ON IR SATELLITE               
IMAGRY MARK AREA WELL. THE PRECIP HAS HELPED RAISE VSBYS ABV 1/4 MILE           
AT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE ADV AREA...THO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IS STILL               
POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS UNTIL TROF MOVS THRU OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE           
DROPPED ADV AND MADE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE IN ZONES. SFC TEMPS TO             
STAY ABOVE FZG WITH TEMPS HLDG GNRLY IN MID 30S AND 40S ON OUR                  
DOORSTEP IN ILLINOIS...SO PCPN SHUD STAY LIQUID.                                
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
235 PM MST MON JAN 10 2000                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS                
INDICATE THAT SNOW IS LETTING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IR SATELLITE                
PICS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST                      
COLORADO...BUT ANOTHER BATCH HEADED FOR THE STATE IN NORTHERN NEVADA            
WHICH SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING.  SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL           
LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  SNOW MODEL YIELDING               
ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE A TAD CONSIDERING              
SOME WARM ADVECTION.  STILL ENOUGH SNOW AND ESPECIALLY WIND TO KEEP             
HIGHLIGHTS GOING AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING.                                     
WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE TIME BEING AS STRONG SURGE HAS PUSHED              
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS.  LEE TROF            
APPEARS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY LATE TONIGHT SO DOWNSLOPE WINDS               
SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  HIGH WIND THREAT LOOKS TO BE             
SHAPING UP AGAIN IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STABILITY             
STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.  SEE                
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.                                              
CSI RELATED SNOW BROKE OUT ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT                   
AFFECTED AREAS HAS REMAINED PRETTY SMALL WITH BANDED NATURE.  RUC               
CONTINUES TO INDICATE CSI ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED.                  
THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE SCATTERED POPS.                                           
BARJENBRUCH                                                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE PICS SHOWING STRONG UPR LVL JET                 
NOSING INTO CO...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING JET LIFTING SLOWLY              
NORTHWARD WITH WK RIDGING AND WAA PATTERN TO CLICK ON IN ERNEST ON              
TUE. THIS CONFIRMED BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER PAC NW COAST AND                
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING WAA PATTERN FOR TUE. PRESS             
FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TNT EAST OF MTNS AND FLOW PATTERN BACKING                
MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. MORE HI WINDS TO CONTEND WITH AGAIN FOR                
MTNS/FOOTHILLS/ADJ PLAIN AREAS LATE TNT AND TUE AS STABILITY AND                
SHEAR CHARACTERISTICS IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z FOR MORE MTN WAVE                     
CONDITIONS. 700MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AND WITH             
SO-SO PROFILE FOR MTN WAVE CONDITIONS EXPECT AT LEAST A HI WIND                 
WATCH IS NEEDED FOR LATE TNT AND TUE. FURTHER EAST ON THE                       
PLAINS...STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BUT MOST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH                 
RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE. WARMING TREND FOR THE PLAINS NEXT TWO DAYS                
WITH READINGS WARMING UP INTO THE 50S.                                          
AS FOR THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE                  
MTNS...BUT INTENSITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSENED AS LAPSE RATES              
LOWER TO 5-6C/KM AND JET DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG                  
OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SOME ACCUM GOING. NO NEED TO ISSUE HILITES FOR            
TUE AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED.                        
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...A SCREAMING WESTERLY FLOW WILL                  
CONTINUE THRU THU...THEN MORE RIDGING WITH A RETURN TO A SW FLOW ALF            
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PAC. MTNS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT            
SOME FOR THE EXTENDED PRD. ENTREKIN                                             
.DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL                           
        MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34.                                            
    ...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND TUE FOR THE FRONT RANGE                 
        FOOTHILLS...ZONES 35 AND 36...AND ADJ AREAS OF FOOTHILLS                
        38>40 FOR TUE.                                                          
    ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN                 
        VALLEYS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...            
        ZONES 30..32..35..AND 37.                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
214 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000                                                      
...MAIN CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD ARE THE WINDS AND THE SNOW IN OUR             
N MTNS...                                                                       
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MAIN JET CORE              
RUNNING WNW-ESE ACROSS WY INTO NE CO...WITH A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT THE              
LAST FEW HOURS. SFC OBS INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...WITH               
STRONGEST WINDS IN MTNS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO EAST SLOPES.                      
SHORT TERM FCST DISCUSSION...ALL GRIDDED DATA...BOTH EXPERIMENTAL AND           
OPERATIONAL...INDICATE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND EARLY                
TONIGHT (BUT NOT END) IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE               
MTNS. ALTHOUGH THETA PROFILES WILL BECOME BETTER LATE TONIGHT FOR               
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SFC PRESSURE FIELDS WEAKEN ALONG WITH WND SPEEDS AT           
700 MBS. CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS TO DROP THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR           
OUR CWA. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS                
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MEANT IN           
MTNS AREAS WHERE PEOPLE ACTUALLY LIVE. MORE STRONG WINDS REACHING               
HIGH WIND CRITERIA MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW...AND THIS IS                 
DISCUSSED BELOW.                                                                
AS FOR THE S&BS ADVISORY...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING IT GOING FOR ZONES              
58 AND 59. SAT PIX INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MTNS            
AND THIS LIKELY NOT TO ABATE FOR AWHILE.                                        
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC                
PATTERN NEXT 48 HOURS IS JET ORIENTATION...THAT IS WE WILL                      
TRANSISTION FROM A NW FLOW TO A MORE WEST FLOW. SPEED OF FLOW OVER              
STATE TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE MAX OVER N COLORADO.                
AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...            
WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR           
STRONG SFC WINDS...THAT IS: ANOTHER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE                  
AREA...THE SHEAR PROFILE ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...AND THE             
STABILITY BECOMES FAVORABLE AT MTN TOP LVL (THETA PACKING). FOR                 
THESE REASONS A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR LATE TONIGHT              
AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...STRONGEST WINDS TOMORROW              
SHOULD BE AROUND 9 AM TO 3 PM.                                                  
DURING WEDNESDAY...JET BEGINS TO BUCKLE NWD AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS             
OVER THE EPAC AND MOVES EAST. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT SFC                
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY AT TIMES...BUT            
NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY.                                                          
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY AS JET DROPS SOUTH             
AS SYSTEM OVER PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO             
BE A NUISANCE. OCCNL SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...WITH THE SAN              
JUANS STARTING TO GET INTO THE ACT.                                             
THNXS DEN AND GJT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE HEADS UP ON MONARCH)                      
HODANISH                                                                        
.PUB...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 58/59 TONIGHT.                               
    ...HIGH WIND WATCH 65>75 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1105 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000                                                     
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS UP A FEW DEGREES NORTHEASTERN ZONES              
AND PLACED WIND GUSTS IN 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE LEE OF FRONT RANGES AND             
NORTHEAST QUARTER TO REFLECT LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT AND CURRENT OBS.  38            
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
315 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000                                                      
NOT A LOT OF TIME TDY FOR DISCUSSION.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN                      
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR WRN PA WHERE              
INSTABILITY STRONGEST BENEATH UPPER LVL COLD POOL.  THIS HAS BEEN               
STEADILY PROGRESSING NORTH AND E.  LTNG STRIKES NOW SHOWING UP IN               
WRN NY AND OVR NRN NYS.  EXPECT FROPA LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY TO              
SEE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY WITH AND JUST BEHIND FNT AN STRONG               
SUBSIDENCE DVLPS.  STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN RUC TROP            
PRESS AND UPPER LVL PV FIELDS WHICH MOVE ACRS CWA THIS EVE.  UPPER              
DIVERGENCE WITH JET NOW MOVING TWRD COAST AND SECONDARY DEVELPMNT               
FORMING OVR SERN PA AS 11 MB/3HR FALLS TAKING OVER AND BECOMING                 
STRONGER THAN FALLS WITH MAIN LOW OVR GRT LAKES.  SUBSEQUENTLY SFC              
LOW DVLOPING AND CAUSING SFC PRESS GRAD TO WEAKEN OVR ERN PA AND                
SERN NY.  NOT REALLY SEEING A LOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PA AND NY              
EVEN WITH THE CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED.  OUR 88D VAD WINDS SHOW            
50 KTS AT 4000 FEET AND THIS WON'T BE TAPPED UNTIL WE GET SOME                  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHEN FNT COMES THRU.  EVEN THEN AM EXPECTING GUSTS            
TO ONLY REACH 35-45 MPH WHICH IS UNDER HIGH WND ADVY.  WILL                     
THEREFORE CONT TO PLAY THE ISOLD SVR GUST WITH CONVECTION SCENARIO              
AND HIGHLIGHT STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WITH SPS.                             
OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL                   
DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO RGN.  COORD WITH BUF FOR PORTIONS              
OF N CNTRL NYS TUE NGT AND WED.  850 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C UNDER            
STRONG 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW.  INITIALLY THE BAND MAY TRANSITION THRU              
NRN ONEIDA TOO QUICKLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL LES CRITERIA BUT DID NOT WANT            
TO CREATE A "HOLE" IN WATCH AREA.  BETTER LES EVENT WILL BE FOR                 
SYR-UCA AREAS WHERE NWLY FLOW IS MORE PROLONGED AND ATTM AM THINKING            
MORE LIKE ADVY CRITERIA.  WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF FLOW IS TOO             
STRONG FOR LES WITH PROGGED 850 WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS.                       
.BGM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED...NYZ018-036-037-009.           
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ny