AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
...STILL A CHALLENGE WITH FORECAST POPS AND WEAK BNDRY IN THE AREA...           
NEW RUCII FAIRLY GOOD IN HOLDING ONTO WEAK BNDRY IN THE AREA THIS               
MRNG THEN MOVG NORTH BY MIDDAY. OF MORE CONCERN IS SGFNT UPPER WAVE             
MVG THRU SRN WY THIS MORNING. ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS WAVE             
INTO THE PLAINS BY TONIGHT. IF ONGOING CONVECTION DIES OUT                      
SOON...ATMOSPHERE MAY HAVE TIME TO RECOVER AND RESPOND TO HIGHER                
LEVEL OF INSTABILITY WITH APPCHG WAVE TNGT. REMNANTS OF CONVECTION              
MOST PROBLEMATIC FOR NCNTRL COUNTIES. WILL GO CHANCE POP THIS AREA              
ALL DAY...BUT MAINTAIN AFTN CHC POPS OVER ERN PTN OF CWA. ALL AREAS             
HAVE A LITTLE BETTER CHC TNGT AS WAVE MVS NEAR AREA. NORTHEAST SFC              
FLOW AS DEPICTED BY ETA AND TO SOME EXTENT THE AVM FOR SATURDAY MAY             
PRECULDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN...BUT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO               
WARRANT A CONTD CHC FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NGM NUMBERS.                
.TOP...NONE                                                                     
 ks                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 05-07Z OFFSHORE NEAR CHANDELEUR                 
ISLANDS AND CONTINUE AT 0735Z JUST OFFSHORE OF COASTAL MS COUNTIES.             
ANOTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED ALONG N COAST OF LAKE                   
PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THESE APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE            
LEADING EDGE OF YET ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE MOVING E TO W FROM THE               
DECAYING NE GULF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. COVERAGE OF STORMS OFF             
COAST OF MS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING WITH STORMS ALIGNING THEMSELVES             
ALONG SURFACE REL VORTICITY COUPLET FROM 07Z MSAS ANALYSIS BUT HAVE             
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. GOOD THING THEY ARE             
OVER THE GULF BUT THIS MAY GIVE CLUES FOR STORMS LATER THIS                     
MORNING.                                                                        
AVN IS POOR IN INITIALIZATION OF 500 MB VORT MAX IN NE TX AND IN NE             
GULF. ETA VERIFIES WELL WITH 06Z PANEL OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND              
SURFACE WITH GOOD CONTINUITY FROM RUC THROUGH 18Z AND THEN FEATURES             
THEREAFTER. FOR 6-18 HRS ETA/RUC SHOW SCENARIO OF PAST SEVERAL DAYS             
IN SE WITH VORT MAX INITIATING EARLY MORNING THUNDER AND WIDESPREAD             
THUNDER DURING DAY AS SEA BREEZE IGNITES IN LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.             
CROSS SECTION OF 00Z ETA SHOWS MSY/ASD/MCB SATURATED THROUGH 200 MB             
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH 48 HRS. WILL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED 50                
POPS (MAY BE A LITTLE LOW...WILL LEAVE UPDATE FOR DAY SHIFT) WITH 20            
POPS TONIGHT AND 30 POPS SAT NIGHT WITH SOME HINT OF SFC LOW                    
DEVELOPMENT NEAR MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT              
OF 700 MB OMEGA FIELD. WILL GO WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AS ETA 12Z              
FRI SHOWS 1/2 TO 1 INCH BULLSEYE OF PRECIP NEAR GREENVILLE MS BUT               
LOOKING AT VORTICITY FIELDS THIS COULD EASILY BE DISPLACED SE INTO              
MS CWA NEAR MCCOMB WHICH RECEIVED 2.6 INCHES YESTERDAY.                         
IN NW LA HAVE CONCERNS ON POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND            
DEVELOPMENT OF MCS TONIGHT. SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR REMAINS ACROSS              
STATE WITH 200 MB TROUGH NEARING KSHV/KPOE AREA THIS EVENING AND                
REMAINING THERE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BLOCKED BY             
EAST COAST SYSTEM. OVER PAST THREE DAYS THIS HAS BEEN THE KEY TO                
LONG LIVED AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS NE TX AND OK. ETA AND NGM BRING               
500 MB N-S VORT FIELD INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO PRECIP COVERAGE               
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THU.                                                       
WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE AS NUMBERS HAVE BEEN HARD TO BEAT.                
LIKE THE AVN HIGHER POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WILL DEFER TO                 
THOSE VALUES AND THEN NGM SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHICH HAS HIGHER                    
VALUES.                                                                         
IN 48-72 HOURS AVN THROWS OUT INTERESTING 500 MB SOLUTION WITH 500              
MB VORTICITY BULLSEYE OVER KMEM THROUGH PERIOD WHICH SEEMS TO PHASE             
WITH DELMARVA 500 MB LOW DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS SOLN HOLDS NE LA WILL             
HAVE PROBLEMS. INTERESTING THAT ETA 48 HOURS SHOWS DEVELOPMENT OF               
500 MB VORT NEAR MEM. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. WILL KEEP EXTENDED AS             
IS.                                                                             
THANKS FOR AFDS/COORDINATION LCH AND SHV. PRELIM NUMBERS                        
SHV 87/68/87/69 5443   MLU 89/68/88/70 5443   LCH 86/72/87/72 5242              
BTR 89/70/89/70 5253   MCB 90/68/89/68 5253   BIX 88/73/88/73 5253              
.NEW...NONE.                                                                    
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE                                                                       
13                                                                              
 la                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
SHRA/TSRA ARE THE FCST PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                              
WAS A BUSY LATE AFTN WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS GOING SVR IN A SMALL                
AREA OF DICKINSON/MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES. 2 CELLS                   
DEVELOPED CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AND               
HAD IMPRESSIVE SHEARS. FORTUNATELY...CELLS FOR THE MOST PART PASSED             
OVER SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS. LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...LIKELY                      
COMBINATION STATIONARY FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE                        
MICHIGAN...AIDED STORM ROTATIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                                  
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NCNTRL WI                
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY TO NEAR KIMT AND KMQT. ON               
BACK SIDE OF LOW...N/NE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT ACROSS W LK                  
SUPERIOR...AND KIWD TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S.                        
DESPITE WEAK LOW PASSING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...FRONT                
WILL ONLY EDGE EAST A LITTLE. THIS A RESULT OF UPPER FLOW REMAINING             
PARALLEL TO FRONT...LACK OF PRESSURE RISES TO THE WEST AND LIGHT                
WINDS...WHICH ARE MAINLY NE TO THE WEST OF FRONT. WITH FRONT MOVING             
VERY SLOWLY...RELUCTANT TO END PRECIP OVER MUCH OF FA. FAR WEST                 
COUNTIES ARE IN BEST POSITION FOR DRY OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC                 
DESCENT BEGINNING AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC. WILL HOWEVER MENTION DRIZZLE             
AND FOG WITH FLOW UPSLOPE OFF A FOGGY LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z RUC SHOWS              
ISENTROPIC DESCENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT ALONG              
WITH QVEC DIVG AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONV. ON UPDATE WILL GO WITH            
DIMINISHING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF FA...EXCEPT E WHICH REMAINS AHEAD            
OF FRONT THRU NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS AND MAKE             
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 120205  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
UPR LEVEL PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG            
W COAST AND BROAD HI PRS OVR E COAST. DEEP UPR LO CONTINUES                     
TO DOMINATE N CANADA...WITH SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SW INTO NW MONTANA              
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SW FLOW PERSISTS OVR UPR GREAT LKS AND CWA WITH            
QUASI STNRY FRNT EXTNDNG NE FROM SFC LO NEAR EAU TO EGV-MQT. NMRS               
SHRA AND RA ON W SIDE OF BDRY N OF SFC LOW IN REGION OF H85-5 QVECT             
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF H5 VORT MAX OVER NW WI. TO EAST OF BNDRY SFC               
DWPTS OF 65-70F PERSIST OVR CNTRL AND E CWA WITH 15Z RUC CAPTURING H85          
THETA-E MAX OF 330K+ EXTNDNG N FM GRB-MQT BY 00Z...INCREASING LO LVL            
CONVERGENCE AND H3-2 DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF JET MAX OVR HUDSONS BAY.              
WITH VRY HI PCP H20...FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE INDICES...APPRCHNG H5                
VORT MAX FROM SW...AND  TMPS APPRCHNG CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF AROUND                
80...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DVLP OVR WI AND MV NE INTO CWA LATE THIS              
AFT...WITH TRAINING POTENTIAL AND VRY HVY RA. IR IMAGERY ALSO                   
DEPICTING COOLING TOPS OVR N WI LAST SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF H5 VORT             
MAX.                                                                            
AFT 06Z TNGT...H5 VORT MAX AND SFC LOW MVS NE ACRS LK SUPERIOR OUT OF           
CWA. ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX DEPICTED BY ETA/NGM OVER E KS APPROACHES E             
CWA FM SW BETWN 12-18Z WITH ETA DEPICTING ASSOCIATED REGION OF H85-5            
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE. WITH SHOWALTER INDICES NEAR ZERO EARLY WILL                
RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER E CWA SAT. OVR W CWA HOWEVER...DRYING...              
WEAK QVECTOR DIVERGENCE...AND DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC DECENT SUPPORT              
STABILIZATION AND CLEARING. NGM FWC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.            
SAT NIGHT ETA/NGM DEPICT H5 SHORTWAVE/ASSOC SFC LOW MVING E ACROSS              
ONTARIO WITH MSTR REMAIN N OF CWA. AVN SUGGESTS DRY SW FLOW ON                  
SUNDAY WITH CLD FRNTL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED            
WITH SYSTEM...SO EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP. FWC SUPPORTS THIS THINKING.              
LONGER RANGE DOMINATED BY DEEPENING UPR LOW OVER HUDSONS BAY AND                
IMPRESSIVE CAA OVR N GRT LKS. TMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVG THROUGH               
MIDWEEK WITH N FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE CROSSES CWA ON MONDAY...GIVING               
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REINTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER DRIER              
CONDITIONS FOR TUES/WED AND H10-5 THICKNESS VALUES DECREASING TO NR             
540DAM. ECMWF ADMITTEDLY LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEEPENING CANADIAN                
VORTEX...BUT SFC LO DEVELOPMENT AND RETURN FLOW OVR C PLAINS BY 12Z             
WED LKS OVR DONE AND TOO FAR N. FAVOR MRF ATTM WITH SUPPORT FM NEW              
AVN.                                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 111910  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1205 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
LATEST SFC ANAL SHOWS NRLY STNRY FNT STRETCHING NE FM LO PRES OVR SE            
MN-EGV-IMT-JUST E OF MQT. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET ARND            
LO PRES. 12Z H5-3 FLOW SWLY AND NRLY PARALLEL TO BNDRY. WV LOOP/12Z             
RAOBS/12Z RUC H5 ANAL SHOW SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LO LIFTING                
NEWD THRU UPR MS VALLEY IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX ACRS WRN ONTARIO. DEEP             
SSWLY FLOW E OF MAIN TROF AXIS ACRS NW HAS ADVCTD COPIOUS MSTR NWD              
INTO GRT LKS...AND 12Z PW ARND 1.5" (CLOSE TO 200 PCT OF NORMAL) AT             
GRB AND MPX. SFC DWPTS NR 70 ON WARM SIDE OF BNDRY WITH H85 DWPTS               
ARND 12C. 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MRNG RESTRICTED TO             
W SIDE OF SFC FNT TO NE OF LO POSITION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z             
RUC ANAL H10-5 MSTR CNVGC. LOTS OF BRKS IN CLDS OVR NRN WI/ERN CWA              
ON WARM SIDE OF BNDRY PER VSBL SAT PIX/SFC OBS. IFR CONDITIONS WITH             
LOTS OF ST/FOG PREDOMINATE ON COOL SIDE OF FNT.                                 
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DVLPMNT AND HVY RA.              
12Z RUC INDICATES SHRTWV/SFC LO WL LIFT NE TDAY AND REACH THE WRN               
CWA DURG EARLY EVNG. XPCT SFC BNDRY TO SHIFT SLOWLY WWD DURG DAY AS LO          
PRES APRCHS FM SW. RUC INDICATES INCRSG H10-5 MSTR CNVGC AND H85-5              
QVECTOR CNVGC OVR ESPECIALLY THE WRN HALF OF CWA AS SHRTWV APRCHS               
DURG DAY. THESE DYNAMICS WL PHASE WITH INCRSG INSTABILITY RESULTING             
FM SOLAR HTG OF HUMID AIRMASS IN NRN WI/ECNTRL CWA. XPCT NMRS SHRA/             
TSRA TO DVLP THESE AREAS DURG AFTN. HIER STABILITY XPCTD OVR FAR W              
ON COOL SIDE OF FNT AND OVR FAR E DOWNWIND OF MODIFYING INFLUENCE OF            
LK MI WL LIMIT TSRA POTENTIAL THERE EVEN THOUGH STEADIEST RA WL CONT            
OVR W ON COOL SIDE OF BNDRY. MODIFIED 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS CAPE OF 2100           
J/KG FOR 80/69 WITH ONLY SML LO LVL CAP THAT COULD BE BKN BY FNT/LK             
BRZ BNDRY. GIVEN RELATIVELY LGT UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALF (H5 WND NR              
30 KTS) AND HI FRZLVL (>13K)/WBZ (NR 12K)...SEVERE WX CHECKLIST SUGS            
NON SVR TSRA. BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL LGT WNDS ALF PARALLEL TO BNDRY AND             
HI PW INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HVY RA WITH CNVCTN MOVG OVR SAME              
SPOT. SOME MINOR FLOODING OF STREAMS WHERE HVY RA FELL YDAY NOT OUT             
OF QUESTION.                                                                    
AREAS OF FOG AND VERY COOL TEMPS WL LIKELY PERSIST OVR NW ZNS THIS              
AFTN WITH CONTD ELY FLOW THERE TO LEFT OF PROJECTED LO TRACK.                   
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 111519  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1117 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING ACROSS FAR NE LOWER MI FROM NOCTURNAL                 
CONVECTION...WITH NO UPSTREAM ACTIVITY FIRING YET PER LATEST BASE               
REF FROM GRB AND MQT. MODIFIED APX MORNING SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF             
2100...LI'S OF -5 AND TT'S OF 50 FOR THE AFTERNOON. THETA E RIDGE IS            
STILL OVERHEAD BUT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCE AS YESTERDAY. VSBL SATELLITE             
LOOP SHOWS AREAS SE OF A LINE FROM APN TO HTL ARE CLEARING OUT                  
NICELY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE  AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AGAIN                  
TODAY...MAIN QUESTION WILL BE FOCUSING MECHANISM.                               
EXPECT LAKE BREEZES TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A BIT                 
LATER DUE TO SLOW WARMUP VIA ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. LAKE BREEZES               
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SINCE SOME DELAY IN                
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WILL DROP POPS TO SCT FOR THE AFTERNOON.              
NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA FROM SSM TO PLN TO TVC WILL SEE SOME MINOR               
UPPER FORCING CONTRIBUTION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE RIGHT                 
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET. RUC SUGGESTS SOME 850 TO 500 MB Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE THROUGH NRN LAKE MI TO NEAR SSM...BUT NOT UNTIL BY 21Z.             
MID LEVELS ARE QUITE MOIST...SO NOT ALOT OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING               
AVAILABLE TO CREATE NEGATIVE BUOYANCY FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. FZL              
LEVEL WILL RISE TO AROUND 14 KFT WITH WET BULB HEIGHT OF OVER 11                
KFT...SO SVR HAIL IS ALSO NOT LIKELY.                                           
WILL ALSO HAVE TO FRESHEN WIND WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MENTION            
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE LATE FOR LAKESHORE COUNTIES.                             
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 111514  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS EVENTUAL DEMISE OF PRECIPITATION.               
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE AT 1900 UTC WILL                  
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE RAIN WHICH FELL OVERNIGHT               
AND INTO MUCH OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS                 
NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL KEEP ONTO SOME SCATTERED POPS IN NW             
WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF NE MN...BUT THE PCPN SHOULD BE MUCH MORE              
SCATTERED THAN EARLIER TODAY.                                                   
ETA/NGM/AVN HAD DONE A POOR JOB WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...             
WITH EACH MODEL NOT INDICATING PRECIPITATION BACK INTO NE MN WITH T             
THIS EVENT. THE RUC HAD DONE THE BEST JOB THIS MORNING...AND NOW                
SEEMS TO BE ANALYZING CLOSE TO THE ETA. WILL GO WITH THE ETA FOR THE            
DETAILS...WHICH IS HANDLING THE FEATURES VERY WELL RIGHT NOW.                   
THE FIRST FEATURE...A VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN              
WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK VORT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST               
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. NICE CIRCULATION                
SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SO HAVE EITHER HUNG ON TO THE POPS              
OR BROUGHT IN A SMALL CHANCE LATER IN THE NIGHT. THINK THE SHORTWAVE            
WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE                
HANGING ON AROUND THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NW WISCONSIN AREA.                  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE FROM NVA SHOULD YIELD             
A DECENT DAY ACROSS THE AREA.                                                   
THE NEXT FEATURE...A STRONG VORT AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL MOVING               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH              
OF THE CWA. STILL COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE EXTREME            
NORTH AS THE COLD POOL SLIDES ALONG THE BORDER.                                 
FWC/FAN TEMPS IN THE BALL PARK...AND HAVE WENT WITH FAIRLY CLOSELY.             
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
DAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 112002  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
SURFACE LOW AT 19Z NOW NORTHEAST OF KEAU WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
TRAILING FROM THE LOW ACROSS FAR SE MN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                     
INDICATES PRETTY SHARP VORT MAX ALONG THE IA/NE BORDER MOVING                   
NORTHEAST. CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS NOW BACK ON            
THE INCREASE ACROSS NW IA. ETA/NGM/RUC SEEM TO BE HAVING A LITTLE               
TROUBLE WITH THIS PARTICULAR VORT AND PLACE MORE EMPHASIS ON A VORT             
OVER WESTERN SD. BELIEVE THIS VORT WILL KEEP MARCHING NORTHEAST                 
THROUGH 03Z WHICH WILL PLACE THE SOUTHERN CWA UNDER INCREASING PVA              
THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN            
AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY TONIGHT WITH POSITIVE CAPE AND SLIGHTLY                  
NEGATIVE LI/S. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY            
TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRMONT TO RED WING TO                   
LADYSMITH. WILL ALSO HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE TWIN            
CITIES FOR EARLY TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE NW CWA.                       
SOUNDING DATA INDICATES AS THE 700 MB TROF MOVES INTO WI LATE                   
TONIGHT THAT DRYING WILL OCCUR IN ITS WAKE WITH DECREASING                      
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MN CWA. WITH THE RECENT RAIN AND                  
CLOUDY SKIES OF TODAY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG                 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. WILL MENTION               
THIS IN THE ZONES.                                                              
SATURDAY LOOKING BETTER THAN BEFORE WITH SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH                    
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WITH              
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. FAIR WEATHER THE RULE               
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE CLOUDINESS ON SUNDAY AS THE              
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH TO OUR NORTH. WILL NOT GET TOO WILD WITH               
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                          
DRY WEATHER NOW LOOKS TO BE THE CASE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK            
AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WILL                
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE MRF GUIDANCE CONSIDERING              
IT'S JUNE AND THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE.                          
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 111530  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1029 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING KEAU AT 15Z WITH TRAILING FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY EXTENDING JUST WEST OF KRST TO SW IA. SURFACE LOW AND 700              
MB LOW THAT IS OVERHEAD WILL BE HEADING SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO                   
NORTHERN WI BY EVENING. 12Z RUC AND ETA SHOWING SINKING MOTION NOW              
OVER THE WESTERN CWA SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CWA BY 12/00Z.                  
EXPECT A DRY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MN CWA WITH            
A CHANCE POPS OVER THE WI CWA.                                                  
WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS              
OF NE AND KS WILL MOVE INTO SW MN BY EARLY EVENING. HIGH LEVEL                  
CLOUDINESS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE STATE               
NOW. LITTLE INSTABILITY PROGGED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST THIS                     
AFTERNOON. TREND ON CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTNING DATA OVER              
EASTERN NE IS WARMING/DIMINISHING RESPECTIVELY. WILL LEAVE THE                  
CHANCE POPS ALONE OVER THE SOUTHERN MN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH                 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT             
OF SUNSHINE OR WHERE YOU ARE WITH RESPECT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.              
KAQP IN THE FAR WEST ALREADY NEAR 70 WHILE KEAU ALREADY 70.                     
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 110916  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC AND LOCATION OF PRECIP...                          
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC MAP HAD THE SFC FNT N OF STJ MO AND SFC HI             
PRES NOSING INTO NEB.  DESPITE LO LVL NE WNDS...ARND 4K FT...THE                
WNDS BECOME SW.  THE H85 BNDY IS IN SE NEB AND WRN IA BASED ON                  
PROFILER WNDS.  LO CLDS COVER MUCH OF ERN NEB...HOWEVER...THE 88D IS            
NO LONGER PICKING UP ANY RETURNS IN THE CWFA.  ONE DISTURBANCE WAS              
LOCATED IN WRN IA AND ANOTHER IN WRN KS/SW NE.  THE CONVECTION IN SW            
NEB WAS SHOWING A TENDENCY TO MOVE PRIMARILY E WITH STGR STORMS IN              
NW KS.  THE LO LVL JET IN W KS WAS ALSO AIDING THESE STORMS.                    
...FORECAST...THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERALL                
PATTERN ALOFT/SFC AND PRECIP PATTERN.  TIMING OF THE PRECIP IS                  
ALWAYS DIFFICULT...AND BOTH THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST A CHC FOR PRECIP IN             
ERN NEB TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND MOVING OUT EARLY SAT.  LO LVL WAA IS             
TAKING PLACE IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  UPR LEVEL DIV IS             
GREATEST OVR CNTRL NEB AND KS AT 18Z AND BY 00Z IS GREATEST IS OK WITH          
A SECOND AREA IN ERN NEB AND WRN IA.  THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE               
SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD ENHANCE THE PRECIP OVR SW OK/NE TX...WHILE               
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SHOULD AID PRECIP DEV ERN NEB AND              
WRN IA TAF AND TON.  HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS FM KS...NE TO SW AND CNTRL            
IA LOOK REASONABLE.  CURRENT FCST INCLUDES A CHC FOR PRECIP FOR SAT             
AND IS SUGGESTED MORE ON THE AVN/NGM THEN THE ETA.                              
H85 TEMPS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/S AND WITH QUITE A FEW CLDS AND                
PRECIP...TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S AOB GUID.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST WRMR             
TEMPS FOR SAT.                                                                  
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 110830  ne                                      

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                                
845 PM PDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
WEAK SHORT WAVE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY THIS EVENING                
WORKING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS INTO CENTRAL NV. AHEAD               
OF THIS SHORT WAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG MAINLY THE CENTRAL                
MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LIGHTNING NOTED OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY                      
EARLIER. HIGH THIN CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING.              
UPPER LOW IN THE ERN PAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE TO THE NE. MID              
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. ASSOCIATED                
WITH THIS LOW IS DEEPER TO THE NORTH. 00Z RUC AND NEW ETA KEEP LOW              
MEAN RH VALUES OVER NV TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST OVER EAST CENTRAL                   
PORTIONS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL                     
MOUNTAINS SHOULD END.                                                           
HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL BE ALL THAT IS LEFT BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF               
THE CWA. CURRENT ZONES HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT                  
EAST CENTRAL AFTER SUNSET. EAST CENTRAL HAS MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT. FEEL THIS HANDLES SITUATION AND PLAN NO FURTHER UPDATES               
THIS EVENING. FAUCETTE                                                          
.EKO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 112153  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
859 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
WITH UPPER LOW OFFSHORE STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVR MUCH OF ERN NC THIS               
EVENING ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES. LAST VIS SAT IMAG OF THE DAY AND              
CURRENT IR IMAG SHOW BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING W OVR THE OUTER                 
BANKS AND PAMLICO SOUND. WILL ADJUST ZONES THERE TO REFLECT MOSTLY              
CLOUDY SKIES TNT WITH CURRENT TEMPS ON TRACK.                                   
BELIEVE RUC TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS EVENING. BOTH RUC AND                
MESOETA MODELS INITIALIZED WELL PICKING UP ON SFC AND UPPER LOW                 
OFFSHORE WITH VORTS EVIDENT ON THE N AND S SIDE OF UPPER LOW. HWVR              
SUTTLE DIFFERENCE IN RUC WITH HOW IT HANDLES SFC WINDS AND MVMT OF              
UPPER VORTS. RUC PMSL AND SFC WINDS VERIFYING THE BEST AS OF 00Z.               
MODEL XSCT KEEPS SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVR MUCH OF THE AREA THRU 06Z.             
AFTER O6Z LOW LEVEL MEAN RH SLOWLY INCREASES SOME WITH WEAK OMEGA               
EVIDENT. WITH THIS SAID WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DURING THE                 
MORNING HOURS AROUND SUNRISE AS MSTR CARRIED IN ON NE WINDS GETS                
TRAPPED UNDER THERMAL AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CLOUDS WILL LIFT                
AFTER SUNRISE BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN BKN THRU THE DAY.                           
CURRENT CWF ON TRACK. WILL BUMP UP WINDS A LITTLE IN WATERS FCST TO             
REFLECT STRONGER WINDS REPORTED BY BUOYS. SEAS ALREADY AT 6 FT AT               
DSLN7 AND 5 FT AT FPSN7. PRES GRAD WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN TNT AS SFC LOW           
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE W. WITH 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST            
THRU TNT...CONDITIONS OUT TO 20 NM SAT AM WILL BE RATHER BUMPY WITH             
6 FT SEAS EXPECTED.                                                             
.MHX...SCA FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO N OF CAPE HATTERAS.               
ORROCK                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 111811  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
13Z HAND/MSAS SFC ANALYSES & LAMP STREAMLINES FAIL TO SHOW A CLEAR              
CDFNT ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA. RADAR/SAT PIX SHOW A BOUNDARY ACROSS              
SRN GEORGETOWN/WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES & EXTENDING OFF THE CST WHERE              
SOME SLGT CONVECTION HAS FIRED. 2ND CLOUD LINE MVG INTO NRN FA                  
ASSOCIATED W/ VORTLOBE FROM UPR LO OFFSHORE WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT.            
MSAS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES BUILDING NICELY DOWN THE CST. BUT MTRS SHOW             
PLENTY OF LO CLOUDS EXTENDING TO OUR N BUT CLEARING BEGINNING TO                
WORK ITS WAY FROM THE NE CORNER OF NC. PRESENT MOVEMENT OF THIS AREA            
WOULD GET IT INTO OUR NRN FA BY LATE AFTN AT EARLIEST. 09Z RUC2 T-              
SECS SHOW SLOW DECREASE IN LO-LVL MOISTURE THRU THE AFTN. WILL DECIDE           
AT PRESS TIME WHETHER TO CHANGE FCST TO DECREASING CLOUDS LATE OR               
STAY W/ MOCLDY. A FEW RW OVER THE EXTREME SRN FA BUT W/ NERLY FLOW              
NOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL THE POPS              
FROM THE STRAND.                                                                
TEMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATER OBS.                                      
CWF: FPSN7 WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SCA CRITERIA W/ COASTAL REPORTS              
SHOWING WINDS GETTING CLOSE. SEAS NOW 5 FT AT FPSN7 & W/ NERLY FLOW             
SHOULD INCREASE TO 6 FT THIS AFTN. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR WATERS N OF               
CAPE FEAR. WILL BUMP UP WINDS FOR SC WATERS BUT STAY BELOW SCA.                 
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC.              
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 111406  nc                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
CURRENT RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
CONTINUE TO SKIRT FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ALONG THE RED RIVER. THIS AREA            
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  CURRENT FORECAST           
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER           
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST RUC INDICATES SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL            
VORT MAXES WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO              
TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY                    
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS                
THESE AREAS AND DROP THE REST OF OKLAHOMA AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE.                
UPDATED ZONES OUT MOMENTARILY.                                                  
33                                                                              
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 111533  ok                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS COVERING THE DELMARVA...BUT                      
INDICATIONS OF DRYING OUT.  RUC SKEW T SHOWS DECREASING LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SO THE ONLY CHANGE THAT I WILL MAKE             
IS TO INSERT THE WORD "BECOMING" IN FRONT OF SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON           
OVER THE DELMARVA. REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE IS OKAY.                            
REPORTS FROM THE CAPE MAY-LEWES DE FERRY SHOW 2 FT SEAS...SO MARINE             
FORECASTER WILL BE TAKING DOWN SMALL CRAFT ON THE LOWER BAY...BUT               
STILL KEEP THEM UP ON THE OCEAN.                                                
.PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE.            
MR                                                                              
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
NOTE TO USERS OF THIS PRODUCT - EFFECTIVE 9 AM EDT JUNE 15 1999...              
THE STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                 
FORECAST OFFICE IN MOUNT HOLLY...NEW JERSEY WILL BECOME AN AREA                 
FORECAST DISCUSSION...WITH A NEW WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION              
(WMO) HEADER AND NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE (NWWS) PRODUCT IDENTIFIER.           
PLEASE TAKE THE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO ENSURE YOUR CONTINUED RECEIPT OF           
THIS PRODUCT.                                                                   
            WMO HEADER     FXUS71 KPHI     FXUS61 KPHI                          
            NWWS ID        PHLSFDPHL       PHLAFDPHI                            
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS CHANGE...PLEASE CONTACT                    
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE GARY SZATKOWSKI AT 609-261-6600.                        
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
 pa                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
855 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC INDICATING MAIN AREA OF PVA OVR GA MOVG NWWRD AND STAYING ON         
W SIDE OF SAV RVR INTO ERLY SAT AM. RADAR LOOP ATTM SHOWING CLUSTER OF          
SHWRS PUSHING WWRD THRU CNTRL MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE VCNTY. CONVECTION          
MORE WDLY SCTD OVR CSRA. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNITE          
SO WL KEEP SML POPS FOR ERLY TONITE FOR MIDLANDS AND CSRA ZONES. WL ALSO        
ADD MENTION OF PSBL PTCHY ERLY AM FOG FOR ALL ZONES SINCE LOW-LVL MSTR          
STILL PLENTIFUL. WL MAKE SLGT TWEAK TO CSRA FCST LOWS AS WELL. OTHERWISE        
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 112312 AMD  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1000 AM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOWING PROMISE BUT MOISTURE-LADEN EASTERLY               
FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN MOST OF DAY.  COOL AIR HAS NOT REACHED AREA            
YET AND NOT LIKELY TO DURING THE DAY.  CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGING             
FROM UPPER 60S IN NE ZONES TO MID 70S IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  DO NOT             
THINK MID 80S REACHABLE BUT CERTAINLY WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF 80S.               
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.  RUC SLOWLY                 
BRINGS DRIER AIR TO FOOTHILLS BUT THIS TOO WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL              
TONIGHT.  BEST BET IS TO KEEP CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN                
FORECAST.  MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH AND WEST WITH                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITH NO SOURCE OF LIFT...WILL BRING POPS DOWN.             
MOUNTAINS GETTING SOME SUN AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE COULD SPARK A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL LEAVE POPS IN CHANCE GROUP              
FOR HIGH COUNTRY BUT WILL DROP OR AT LEAST REDUCE TO LOW CHANCE                 
ELSEWHERE.                                                DELGADO               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 111359  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
WATOR VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER TROF W/TWO                    
EMBEDDED AREAS OF PVA MOVG THRU.  LATE THIS MORNING...THESE AREAS OF            
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WERE INTERACTING WITH AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT                  
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS CAUSING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS            
C AND NC SD.  THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW A REGION OF PVA AND            
MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING E THRU OUR CWA THIS AFTN.  HOWEVER...THE DRY              
AIRMASS AS INDICATED BY 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE               
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE                      
INSTABILITY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES             
OVER. A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE A              
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND/OR C SD BY             
MID AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF TSTORMS FOR CENTRAL SD               
AND NC SD AND INCREASED POPS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTH                     
CENTRAL.  INSERTED INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR THE EAST AND LOWERED               
TEMPS ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.                                         
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
GUERRERO                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 111530  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND                           
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1015 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
WATOR VAPOR LOOP AND 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER TROF W/TWO                    
EMBEDDED AREAS OF PVA MOVG THRU.  LATE THIS MORNING...THESE AREAS OF            
UPPER LEVEL LIFT WERE INTERACTING WITH AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT                  
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS CAUSING SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS ACROSS            
C AND NC SD.  THE LATEST RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOW A REGION OF PVA AND            
MID LEVEL LIFT MOVING E THRU OUR CWA THIS AFTN.  HOWEVER...THE DRY              
AIRMASS AS INDICATED BY 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE               
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE                      
INSTABILITY ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES             
OVER. A COMBINATION OF A LITTLE LIFT AND INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE A              
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD BY MID                  
AFTERNOON.  DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF TSTORMS FOR CENTRAL SD AND              
GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTH CENTRAL.  LEFT THE EAST ALONE.              
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
GUERRERO                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 110902  sd                                      

WEST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1020 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
AT LEAST 2 OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING            
WITH A THIRD BOUNDARY WORKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE.                  
THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON            
AS LOW CLOUDS ERODE ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE FAIRLY WEAK            
CAP.  3H 12Z ANALYSIS AND 12Z RUC BOTH INDICATE 60+ KNOT JET MOVING             
TOWARD THE REGION (ALSO SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY).  THE LEFT EXIT            
REGION OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCE THE              
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT                    
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                      
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
MM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 111510 AMD  tx                                  

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
945 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
CLOUD STREETS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP ARE SHOWING THE STRONGER                
SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOVE THE SFC THIS MORNING.  OUR CAPE IS A LITTLE               
LARGER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME BUT PW VALUES AND INSTABILITY                
PARAMETERS REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.  OUTFLOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS                  
SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE AREA OF TCU AND                 
SHOWERS PREVAILS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF LAREDO BUT AM UNSURE OF THE              
AFFECTS TO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  ETA FROM LAST NIGHT HAS A VORT              
CENTER MOVING EAST INTO EAST TEXAS WHILE IT SWINGS SOME WEAK                    
VORTICITY ADVECTION ONTO THE MIDDLE COAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE               
SAME SYSTEM.  LATEST RUC AND MESOETA DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT                
LIFT OVER THE AREA FROM THIS SYSTEM.  KENEDY COUNTY ALREADY IS                  
SHOWING A SMALL SHOWER BUT CU OUTSIDE IS LOOKING RATHER WEAK AT THIS            
TIME.  WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 30              
KNOTS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER ANY ORGANIZED SEABREEZE ACTIVITY.  WE WILL            
LIKELY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES              
BUT FEEL THAT THEY WILL BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WILL             
HOWEVER MENTION ISOLATED POPS FOR KENEDY COUNTY.  WILL UP WINDS JUST            
A BIT OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WINDS ALREADY GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS.           
WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS ALL NIGHT AND WILL             
THUS KEEP THE 4 FOOT SEAS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE                 
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
63                                                                              
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 111451  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
910 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
HIGH PRS HAS RIDGED INTO VA. SFC WINDS HAVE GONE VERY LIGHT NE-E.               
WESTWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR HAS PROBABLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT.  12Z               
MODELS...21Z RUC AND 18Z ETA ALL TEND TO AGREE WITH THIS. HOWEVER...            
SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLDS CONT TO ERODE FROM THE EAST AND ARE                    
CONFINED MAINLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. THE              
CURRENT ZONE GROUPING IN THE EAST HANDLES THIS WELL. WILL EXPAND THE            
LOW CLOUDS FURTHER WEST WITH THE CONT LIGHT E-SE FLOW OVERNIGHT &               
WILL PROB ADD PATCHY FOG. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S...AND            
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL RAISE MINS TONIGHT.                                 
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JJ                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 120109  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
250 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE THIS MRNG HOW TO TINKER WITH LOW POPS.  IN SHRT TERM             
FAVORED LOCATION WOULD STILL BE OVR SRN FA.  SYNOPTIC BNDRY ON 06Z              
SFC ANLYS TOUGH TO DEFINE BUT WOULD APPR TO EXTEND NWD INTO FA FM               
LOW JUST E OF KSTJ-KMCI ALG KICL-KAMW-KDEH LN.  MSAS MSTR CNVGNC                
AXIS SUGGESTS THIS AS WELL SO AREAS ALG AND S BY ISSUANCE TIME WOULD            
SEEM TO BE LOCATIONS TO LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR TDA WHICH IS SIMILAR              
TO SPC SLGT RISK OTLK.  MESOSCALE BNDRY SEEMS TO BE PUSHED INTO WRN             
IL FOR TIME BEING AHD OF MESOHIGH JUST N OF KOTM.                               
FAVORED MDL SOLN AFT TDA DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH WITH VERY SUBTLE                
FEATURES.  NGM/AVN PUSH SFC THETA-E CNVGNC MAX S AND E OF FA BY 00Z             
TNGT BUT ETA HANGS WEAK AXIS BACK ACRS SRN FA.  THIS SEEMS LIKE                 
BETTER SOLN SINCE NRN END OF FNT WL HAVE BETTER PUSH AHD OF SYS ALG             
US/CAN BORDER.  QUICK LOOK AT 03Z AND PART OF 06Z RUC SUPPORT THIS              
TOO.  THUS WL KEEP LOW POPS GOING FOR SERN SXNS THRU TNGT WHERE                 
THETA-E CNVGNC AXIS ACTUALLY HANGS THRU 48HRS ON NWRN END OF BROAD              
LOW LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT DVLPS ACRS SRN PLAINS. ATTM FEEL              
THAT ENOUGH OF RDG WL BUILD INTO FA TO PRECLUDE ADDING POPS TO                  
SUN/SUN NGT.  CANNOT FIND ENOUGH SFC BASED CNVGNC OR DYNAMIC FORCING            
TO BUCK CONTINUITY ATTM ALTHOUGH THIS WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.  EVEN              
THOUGH CAPES BLO 1000 J/KG BY 00Z MON...ETA SHOWS LTL CIN OR CAP SO             
IF ANY BNDRY IS LEFT OVR...SCT TSTMS COULD DVLP AGN.                            
AMT OF SUN WL AGN PLAY A BIG ROLE IN TEMPS AND GIVES BUST                       
POTENTIAL.  FWC NUMBERS SEEM A BIT HIGH SPCLLY BHND FNT WHERE CU                
SHOULD REDVLP EVEN IF THEY DO START OUT WITH SOME SUN. THUS WL GO               
WITH COMPROMISE NW AND CLOSER TO WRMR FWCS SE WHICH PERFORMED WELL              
YDA.  FAN MIN NUMBERS SEEM TOO COOL FA WIDE SO WL STAY NR FWCS.                 
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 120220  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                     
SHRA/TSRA ARE THE FCST PROBLEMS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.                              
WAS A BUSY LATE AFTN WITH A COUPLE OF CELLS GOING SVR IN A SMALL                
AREA OF DICKINSON/MARQUETTE/MENOMINEE/DELTA COUNTIES. 2 CELLS                   
DEVELOPED CLASSIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IN REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AND               
HAD IMPRESSIVE SHEARS. FORTUNATELY...CELLS FOR THE MOST PART PASSED             
OVER SPARSELY POPULATED AREAS. LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...LIKELY                      
COMBINATION STATIONARY FRONT AND LAKE BREEZE OFF OF LAKE                        
MICHIGAN...AIDED STORM ROTATIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                                  
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NCNTRL WI                
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY TO NEAR KIMT AND KMQT. ON               
BACK SIDE OF LOW...N/NE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT ACROSS W LK                  
SUPERIOR...AND KIWD TEMP HAS DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S.                        
DESPITE WEAK LOW PASSING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...FRONT                
WILL ONLY EDGE EAST A LITTLE. THIS A RESULT OF UPPER FLOW REMAINING             
PARALLEL TO FRONT...LACK OF PRESSURE RISES TO THE WEST AND LIGHT                
WINDS...WHICH ARE MAINLY NE TO THE WEST OF FRONT. WITH FRONT MOVING             
VERY SLOWLY...RELUCTANT TO END PRECIP OVER MUCH OF FA. FAR WEST                 
COUNTIES ARE IN BEST POSITION FOR DRY OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC                 
DESCENT BEGINNING AS SHOWN ON 00Z RUC. WILL HOWEVER MENTION DRIZZLE             
AND FOG WITH FLOW UPSLOPE OFF A FOGGY LAKE SUPERIOR. 00Z RUC SHOWS              
ISENTROPIC DESCENT SLOWLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS FA OVERNIGHT ALONG              
WITH QVEC DIVG AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONV. ON UPDATE WILL GO WITH            
DIMINISHING TREND FOR REMAINDER OF FA...EXCEPT E WHICH REMAINS AHEAD            
OF FRONT THRU NIGHT. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ALL AREAS AND MAKE             
SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS.                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 120205  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NICE LOOKING SWIRL OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH         
SURFACE/UPPER CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.         
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RETROGRADING THIS SYSTEM           
SLOWLY W TODAY TO A POSITION IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE HATTERAS BY 12Z            
SUNDAY. THE MODELS THEN MOVE THE LOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AROUND          
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SHOWN WELL OFF THE COAST BY 00Z            
MONDAY. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE LOW SHOULD MOVE JUST CLOSE ENUF TO             
KEEP THE WESTERN CAROLINAS UNDER WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE RIDGING AT         
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.                                            
EXPECT THE NEXT 36 HOURS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS A RESULT. MODELS (IN         
PARTICULAR THE ETA) SHOW ALL THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR PRECIP FROM            
CENTRAL GA SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO REMAINS OF OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY AND              
PERSISTENT WEAK UPPER LOW OVER N FL. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS...KGSP RADAR           
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN AN AREA OF WEAK            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM THE NE GA PIEDMONT...ACROSS THE           
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA...TO THE SC MIDLANDS. 03Z RUC SHOWS            
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY 12Z WHILE ETA SHOWS            
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP TO OUR S BY 12Z. WILL PLAN ON THE SHOWERS          
DISSIPATING BY 12Z BUT WILL CONSIDER MENTIONING EARLY MORNING PRECIP IN         
SOUTHERN FRINGE ZONES BASED ON TRENDS AT FCST ISSUANCE.                         
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR IS             
ADVECTED IN FROM THE NE. TONITE SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMP GUIDANCE           
IS SIMILAR IN MOST PLACES AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. THE ONLY MAJOR                
DIFFERENCE IS THE HIGH TEMP FOR SUNDAY AT GSP WHERE FWC IS A CATEGORY           
HIGHER THAN THE FAN. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND STICK WITH THE MID           
80S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE UPSTATE ZONES FOR SUNDAY.                       
AVL 78/56/80 100                                                                
CLT 84/62/85 -00                                                                
GSP 84/63/85 100                                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 120345  sc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
855 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC INDICATING MAIN AREA OF PVA OVR GA MOVG NWWRD AND STAYING ON         
W SIDE OF SAV RVR INTO ERLY SAT AM. RADAR LOOP ATTM SHOWING CLUSTER OF          
SHWRS PUSHING WWRD THRU CNTRL MIDLANDS INCLUDING CAE VCNTY. CONVECTION          
MORE WDLY SCTD OVR CSRA. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNITE          
SO WL KEEP SML POPS FOR ERLY TONITE FOR MIDLANDS AND CSRA ZONES. WL ALSO        
ADD MENTION OF PSBL PTCHY ERLY AM FOG FOR ALL ZONES SINCE LOW-LVL MSTR          
STILL PLENTIFUL. WL MAKE SLGT TWEAK TO CSRA FCST LOWS AS WELL. OTHERWISE        
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 112312 AMD  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE SPINNING OVER THE            
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH ROTATION AROUND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EVIDENT            
IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE HANGING              
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SE              
AL. BACK DOOR FRONT MADE SOME SWWD PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT BUT                
APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM SAVANNAH NW ACROSS CENTRAL GA SO OUR               
AIRMASS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS                
JUICED AND UNSTABLE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES               
LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON                
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                                                         
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS BIG BEND ZONES THIS MORNING AND TEMPS              
RUNNING BEHIND GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE             
SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH IN               
SPOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND AND QUICKLY BOOSTING US UNDER STRONG                
JUNE SUN UP TO GUIDANCE MAXT/S WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL LATELY.               
BOTH FWC/FAN SHOW 88 FOR TLH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL                    
INTRODUCE A RANGE TO AFTERNOON MAXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER              
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND OTHER AREAS THAT BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER               
THAN TLH...85 TO 90 WILL BE THE CALL. WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS                
WILL WORD SKY CONDITION AS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DELAY LIKELY POPS TO               
LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
MAW                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 121443  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED              
OVER EXTREME NE FL AND SE GA HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP LAST COUPLE OF                
HOURS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO            
CHANGE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MAJORITY OF CWA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT                
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ZONES APPEAR FINE AND NO                   
UPDATES PLANNED.                                                                
RUC MODEL SHOWS HIGH MEAN RH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG            
A NW-SE AXIS TODAY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SW. THIS SEEMS                 
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING                  
INDICATES PW NEAR 1.8 BUT WET BULB ZERO IS ABV 12 KFT. THEREFORE...             
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY BUT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TS APPEARS               
RATHER LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL.                           
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER THE NE CORNER OF CWF AREA.                
LATEST BUOY REPORT FROM 41008 IS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. SUGGEST                
RAISING WINDS AND SEAS IN CWF.                                                  
ARS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 121423  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
UPDATE CONCERNS...SHRA/TSRA IN E CWA AND CLEARING TREND WEST.                   
AT 15Z...SFC COLD FRNT EXTDNG FM E LK SUPERIOR-ISQ-MKE WITH SFC DEWPTS          
65-69 E OF FRONT...AND DRIER DWPTS NEAR 55 ADVECTING INTO W/CNTRL               
CWA IN W FLOW. IR/LTG DATA INDICATING COOLING TOPS AND TSRA OVR WI              
DOOR PENISULA MVG NE 25 KTS. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD               
WITH WK SHORTWAVE RESLVD BY 12Z RUC THAT IS IMBEDDED IN SW UPR FLOW.            
CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT WITH FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMGRY.                
SW FEATURE IS FCST BY 12Z RUC TO CONTINUE NE ALNG COLD FRONT BDRY               
INTO E CWA BWTN 15-21Z. RUCS 310K THETA SFC DEPICTS WEAK LOBE OF                
ASCENT TO TRAVERSE E CWA WITH FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING                  
DESCENT BY 00Z. CONVERGENT LK BREEZES SHOULD AID IN                             
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH MINIMAL SOLAR HEATING...CAPES                            
500-1000J/KG...AND SHOWALTER INDEX 1-2C...WILL RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA             
DEVELOPING...WITHOUT RISK OF SVR.                                               
TO WEST INCREASING DECENT EVIDENT ON 12Z RUCS 310K THETA SFC...WITH             
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALREADY WRKNG INTO GOGEBIC                    
COUNTY...THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KEEWENAW PENINSULA REACHING               
CNTRL CWA LATE. UPSTREAM INL SOUNDING QUITE DRY...SO BELIEVE SKIES              
WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL BDRY LAYER                   
MOISTURE MIXES OUT. MAX TMPS LK REASONABLE.                                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 121503  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
940 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE E             
CST WHILE AN AREA OF LO PRES APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS FROM                    
OFFSHORE. RDG PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THRU THE AFTN AS THE LO MOVES               
ASHORE EARLY THIS EVE. VIS PIX SHOW PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE              
SPREADING ACROSS ERN NC. 09Z RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE H8 RH                 
FIELD & SPREADS 70+ PCNT INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE FA BY MID-AFTN.            
BUT HIGHEST MOISTURE STAYS N SO WILL STAY PTSUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE                
AFTN LOOKS GOOD W/ LITTLE MOISTURE & PLENTY OF SUN. A RELAXED LO-LVL            
FLOW W/ AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING ALG THE CST WILL ENHANCE                    
PROSPECTS FOR A RESULTANT BOUNDARY & LIFT THIS AFTN. BUT A DRY & MORE           
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROHIBIT ACTIVITY. TEMPS IN LOWER TO             
MID 80S FINE BASED ON LOCAL SCHEMES.                                            
CWF: WINDS BECMG FAIRLY LGT ALG THE CST WHICH AGREES W/ 03Z MESO-ETA            
& RUC PROGS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES PLANNED.                                        
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 120614  nc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
949 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
FCST TODAY APPEARS ON TRACK. SCT CU MIDLANDS WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS            
CURRENTLY PUSHING SW THRU CSRA. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TREND OF DRIER AND         
MORE STABLE AIR ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NE...BUT HANGS ON TO HIGHER        
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CSRA.           
WILL GO SUNNY OR MSTLY SUNNY NE AND BECMG PRTLY CLDY CSRA THIS AFT.             
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 120715  sc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
303 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
THE MODELS SHOW DRYING OCCURRING FROM NE TO SW TODAY AND SATELLITE AND          
OBS SUPPORT THIS. BASED ON THE RUC/S 950-850 MB RH FORECAST...CLOUDINESS        
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SW PART THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ELSEWHERE...        
EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING         
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA/S WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE             
APPEARS WEAKER SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH DOWNWARD          
H7 OMEGA SO THE DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE. FWC/FAN AND LOCAL                  
TEMPERATURE SCHEMES ARE VERY CLOSE AND PLAN TO FOLLOW. PLAN TO ADD A            
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON TSTMS TO MONDAY/S FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST AVN          
WHICH SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND AN H5              
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING.                                                          
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
RJL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 120652  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
935 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GOOD                     
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  DEWPOINTS ARE LITTLE             
LOWER TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA...ONLY AN             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE                  
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND SUBSIDENCE IS LESS.                                     
LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SHOW TODAY BEING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VERY                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL MOTION.  WITH THIS IN MIND CURRENT                
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.               
HAVE A GOOD DAY...                                                              
PDK #2                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 120801  tn                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS                
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED BY NOON.               
AIR MASS DRY PER MORNING SOUNDING AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE RAIN FROM           
THESE STORMS EXPECTED.. MAINLY GUSTY WIND VARIETY.  MINOR UPPER LEVEL           
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.  MODELS                
INDICATE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING              
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY.  LIFTED INDICES REMAIN BELOW              
ZERO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.. BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY                
DISTURBANCES TO ENHANCE LIFT.  WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                  
SHEARING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS CAUGHT               
UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND BROAD EASTERN CANADA TROUGH.                    
WHILE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYS OVER MONTANA AND                     
WYOMING.. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE                       
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT                 
LIFT TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.. SO             
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.                            
EXTENDED.. AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH MRF               
SHOWING STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.  MRF             
AS BEEN LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST WEEK.. BUT RIDGE              
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW                
PERHAPS INCREASING AT 700 MB BY WEDNESDAY.. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE             
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN UTAH.  NO CHANGES TO                    
WESTERN COLORADO WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS THUNDERSTORMS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
FRISBIE                                                                         
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 122000  co                                      

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
200 PM MDT   SATURDAY   JUNE 12 1999                                            
OVERALL APRS PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GOOD CHC OF STORMS               
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  TODAY TSTMS FIRING                   
QUICKLY AS MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT FM SHT WAVE               
NOW OVR WRN CO PER RUC AND WTR VPR IMAGERY MOVING EAST...WHILE                  
FARTHER E ERN CO STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF EXITING WAVE NOW IN WRN               
KS.  MEANWHILE FRONT MOVING S INTO WY AS HI PRES BUILDS BHND GUD                
SHORT WV MOVING ACRS ERN MT.  THIS FRONT AND ASSOC UPR LVL FORCING              
WITH WAVE AND UPR LVL JET STREAK BRINGS A GOOD DEAL OF FORCING INTO             
WRN NEB LATER TONIGHT SO WUD XPCT THERE SHD BE AREA OF TSTMS                    
THERE...THIS SHD HELP PUSH SURGE INTO NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND                
MIGHT KEEP SHWRS/TSTMS GOING ALL NIGHT OVER PTNS OF THE ERN                     
PLAINS...AS WELL AS LEADING TO LOTS OF LOW CLDNS SUNDAY MORNING.  SO            
XPCT SUNDAY TO HAVE COPIOUS LO LVL MSTR WITH ELY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AND           
PERHAPS MORE UPR LVL FLOW FM THE NW AS THE JET STREAK WILL BE CLOSER            
TO FCST AREA...THO STILL FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT AMNT OF FLOW OVER              
AREA IS STILL TRICKY.  WILL NEED TO UP POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN              
PASSAGE OF FRONT WITH INCRSD UPSLP.                                             
FOR MONDAY...THOUGHT YSTDY THAT IT MIGHT BE THE DRIER DAY AHEAD OF              
THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER UPSLOPE FM THE N FOR TUE AND BYND.  TODAY              
THO LUKS LIKE THERE SHD CONT TO BE PLENTY OF LO LVL MSTR ARND AND               
WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS PROB NO SHORTAGE OF AFTN TSTMS AGAIN...WILL GO            
ORDER OF 40 PCNT CHC OR SO.  LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGRMNT              
AND HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON STRENGTH OF HI ENTERING OUR AREA...BUT             
STILL PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH ANOTHER SURGE XPCTD LATE               
MONDAY OR ERLY TUE...LEADING TO RENEWED UPSLOPE CONDS.  GRADUALLY               
FLOW WILL COME ARND WITH TIME TO MORE SELY WITH SOME TEMP                       
RECOVERY...WILL BROAD BRUSH IN STATE AND PUT ANY SUCH DETAILS IN                
ZONE EXTENDED PERIOD.  LIKELY AN ACTIVE 5 DAYS AHEAD.  SZOKE                    
.DEN...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 120901  co                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL TRIGGER                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF FA LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RUC MODEL INDICATES BEST SURFACE                  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR OF FA...AROUND               
LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST              
COAST BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AVN MODEL                   
PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD NOT               
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON FA.                                                      
SUN...ETA SHOWS E-W AXIS OF DRYING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL FL IN RESPONCE            
TO SHARPENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF MID ATLC COAST CUTOFF.                
WHILE PARTIAL DRYING EXPECTED FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY IT WIL ONLY            
SLOW DEVELOPENT OF CONVECTION AND ACTVTY WILL FIRE WITH SEA BREEZE              
COLLISION AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ESPECIALLY N OF THE CAPE.             
SUN NT AND MON...WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL WEAKEN               
AND LIFT NE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN LONG WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE            
UPPER MID W AND GREAT LKS. BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE             
A BIT MORE S AND ALLOW FLOW TO VEER. ONLY THE ETA INDICATES DEEPER              
MOISTURE MOVING IN FM THE S OVER THE TOP OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ALL             
MDLS INDICATE PCP WATER VALUES MORE THEN ENOUGH FOR MORE TS ACTVTY.             
MAY TEND TO HAVE HIER POPS IN THE S.                                            
TUE AND WED...AS SHRT WV MOVES WELL N OF AREA FLOW CONTINUE TO VEER             
TO THE SW AND WILL FOCUS ACTVTY CLOSER TO THE E COAST. FIRST N OF               
THE CAPE ON TUE AND ALL AREAS BY MID WEEK.                                      
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
DAB BB 072/087 071/087 070 05343                                                
MCO TT 070/088 072/089 070 05443                                                
MLB BB 073/086 073/088 072 05343                                                
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 121833  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW UNDERWAY AS THE               
OVERALL PATTERN IS BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY BEING                  
TRANSFERRED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM ALLOWING IT TO BECOME DOMINANT.            
NET RESULT IS THE CURRENT 4 WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WILL             
BECOME AN UNSTABLE 5 WAVE PATTERN. MOSAIC OF GOES 8/10...GMS-5...AND            
METOSAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN               
PACIFIC/ALASKA AREA IS REORGANIZING AS THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE                
TROF RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. PER SATELLITE TRENDS STRONG SHORTWAVE               
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH ENERGY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA             
AS HEIGHTS BUILD JUST WEST OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL ALLOW               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROF TO RETROGRESS ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO             
NEAR 47.5N/153W. DOWNSTREAM THIS REORGANIZES THE REX BLOCK INTO AN              
OMEGA BLOCK ON THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALLOWING THE POLAR               
VORTEX WEST OF GREENLAND TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND CARVE              
OUT A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.                      
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH                
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.            
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO             
BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SIBERIA DIVES            
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF ALLOWING ENERGY TO BE TRANSFERRED INTO            
THE SOUTHERN STREAM.                                                            
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. A MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS               
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHICH IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE              
AS A TROF FROM NEAR KIRK TO KSTL. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH                  
HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOTED ON THE               
DVN 88D. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KCDJ WHILE            
THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG A KEFT... KMUT... KCDJ LINE.            
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE 70 DEW POINT AIR EAST OF              
THE MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED ON                
WATER VAPOR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DIURNAL CU/SC BEHIND THE              
FRONT WITH THE BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE                    
MISSISSIPPI.                                                                    
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...RAIN CHANCES...CLOUDS/TEMPS...AND              
WHETHER TO KEEP ANY HEADLINES.                                                  
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK AND WERE DOING A FAIRLY                
GOOD JOB OF VERIFYING AT 18Z. THE ETA CATCHES THE LOW NEAR KCDJ AT              
18Z DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. 15Z RUC INITIALIZED THE LOW BUT               
LOST IT BY 18Z BUT IS CATCHING THE MAJOR FEATURES FAIRLY WELL. ALL              
MODELS INDICATE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY MOVE THE             
FRONT 10-20 MILES DURING THE NIGHT WHILE IT WAITS FOR THE KANSAS                
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE UP ALONG IT. ADDITIONALLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND               
THE FRONT ARE STILL NIL BUT STRONGER ONES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE                 
DAKOTAS. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO LOW (AOA 1 INCH) WILL KEEP                
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS ROUGHLY              
ALONG AND EAST OF A DBQ TO JUST EAST OF OTM LINE. FAIRLY HIGH PWS               
COMBINED WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THICKNESS...SURFACE FRONT...             
AND EVENTUAL RRQ OF JET ALL POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.                  
PRESSURE RISES FINALLY FORCE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE               
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. SO WILL GO WITH                   
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY             
NIGHT ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL            
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW             
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS TAKE            
PLACE ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE RAW WITH TEMPERATURES               
ONLY IN THE 60S.                                                                
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.                               
.DVN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                     
IAZ054-064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099                                          
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-025-026-034-035                                      
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 121925  ia                                      

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS ARCS                
CWA TAPERING OFF AFTR SUNSET WILL LOSS OF LOW LVL SUPPORT. SFC RUC              
INDCG SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE. SHWRS                   
AND TSTM ACTVTY TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE AS C-BRZ/ LAND-BRZ SWITCHES               
AND LOW LVL DYNAMIC'S SWITCHES OVR CSTL WTRS. MSTLY CLR SKIES                   
XPCD OVRNGHT W/ LIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR INLD AREAS.                                
SFC PRES GRAD RMNS WEAK W/ SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GULF. UPR LVL                  
WEAKNESS XPCD TO CONT OVR SE TX AND SW LA... AS RDGG FM REX BLOCK               
OFF THE E CST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE GULF CSTL STATES EAST OF THE                
AREA. AVN AND NGM NOW TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT... BUT WITH                
UPR LVL SUPPORT AND LTL CHANGE XPCD IN THE TROPICAL MSTR WILL LEAN              
TOWARDS PRESISTANCE.                                                            
NGM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOUT RIGHT W/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL                 
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT.                                                           
LCH TT 073/087 073/087 4635                                                     
LFT TT 073/087 072/087 4535                                                     
AEX TT 069/088 069/088 4533                                                     
BPT TT 073/087 073/087 3545                                                     
K. KUYPER                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLCH 121919  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN HALF OF FA AND             
CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE.  CLEARING WILL LEAD TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT               
WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN.  WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREA                 
EXCEPT EASTERN COUNTIES.  TEMPERATURES MIGHT NEED SOME MINOR                    
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.  LATEST RUC SHOWS MOISTURE FINALLY GETTING                 
SHUNTED WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS IN GA COUNTIES HAS MOVED               
AWAY OR DISSIPATED AND WILL DROP MENTION OF.              DELGADO               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 121402  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS WK TROF FM SE WY TO LOW IN SRN CANADA.                  
SATELLITE INDC SOME CLOUD DEVLPMNT ALONG THIS LINE... SO COLD FRONT             
MAY BE DEVELOPING AS ADVERTISED IN MODELS. WV IMAGES SUGGEST SW/V               
OVR NW MT IS MOVING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MODELS INDC. DIGITAL              
TIMING EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS SW/V INTO NW SD/NE WY BY 00-01Z...               
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN 12Z ETA AND RUC.                                          
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN                  
AFTERNOON POPS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW             
END OF THE RANGES GIVEN AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE ATTM.                     
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
MURPHY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 121509  sd                                      

EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HAS ARISEN IN THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS WITH THE                  
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS AT 12Z.  FCST CHALLENGE NOW IS GOING              
FM A RATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY FCST FOR THE S-SE TO A RATHER WET ONE.              
OF THE 4 LONG RANGE MODELS TO LOOK AT...IT IS A SPLIT DECISION.                 
ONE OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS THE RATHER SIGGY VORT OVR SW KS             
EXPECTED TO HEAD E OR NE.  THE NGM/AVN DON/T APPEAR TO HAVE                     
INITIALIZED THE STRENGTH OF THIS VORT VERY WELL AND MORE OR LESS                
WASH IT OUT OR TAKE IT DUE E FM IT/S CURRENT POSITION. THE ETA/UWNMS            
APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE S/W...             
CONFIRMED BY THE NEW RUC...AND TAKE IT RIGHT INTO NRN IL/SRN WI ON              
SUN. WHAT HELPS LIFT THIS NORTH IS THE SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW CAUSED             
BY THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN S/W TROF.  THESE TWO MERGE OVR AREA                
SUN/SUN NGT.  THE S/W SHULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES NE INTO                     
CONFLUENT UPR FLOW. HOWEVER...OTHER DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL COME FROM            
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE RGT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR               
JET. THE UWNMS HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE CONCERN AS IT ALSO BRINGS A TIGHT           
UPR LVL JET MAX UP FM THE SOUTH WITH THE KS S/W. THIS PRODUCES A PD             
OF CLASSIC JET COUPLING FOR ADDED UVV. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UW MODEL              
HAS GONE BALLISTIC ON QPF RGT UNDER THE ASSOCIATED AGEO CIRCULATION             
OF THE COUPLED JETS.  ALL THIS OCCURS WITH THE TROF NRLY STNRY AT               
THE SFC FOR ADDED FOCUS.                                                        
ALTHOUGH THE SFC TROF/FNT WL LIKELY HAVE SLIPPED S OF WI OVRNGT...              
THE COOLER AIR OVR SRN WI WL BE VRY SHALLOW WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW NOT           
TOO FAR UP.  LOOKS LIKE A GUD OVRRNG SITUATION PSBL.                            
WL UP POPS OVR SE TO LIKELY CAT FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS             
BACK FARTHER W AS THINGS EVOLVE.                                                
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE SE...AN AREA               
THAT HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF RAIN LATELY.  IF THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE            
S/W AND COUPLE JET MATERIALIZE...THEN HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT OUT OF                
THE QUESTION.  ADDITIONALLY...OUR HYDROLOGIST IS OUT OF THE OFFICE              
THIS WEEK...A SURE SIGN OF RAIN...                                              
.UWNMS...HAS THE MOST DETAIL OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOOKS SOMEWHAT               
LIKE THE ETA...BUT STRONGER.  DEVELOPS UNBELIEVEABLE UVV WITH                   
COUPLED JET SOLUTION AT 30 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF VRY HIGH AND               
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK /?/.                                 
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 120928  wi