000
FGUS74 KBRO 030330
ESFBRO
TXC047-061-215-247-261-427-489-505-030500-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...BENEFICIAL RAINS FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH 
TEXAS...

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREME...

SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST 
PROVIDED SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF 
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN 
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE EASTERN 
SECTIONS HAVE AVERAGED 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF NEAR 3 
INCHES. THE WESTERN SECTIONS HAVE RECEIVED MUCH LESS RAINFALL WITH 
TOTALS AVERAGING LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH. THE CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE 
SOME RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE, 
BROWNSVILLE RECEIVED 3.47 INCHES OF RAINFALL OR 0.99 INCHES ABOVE 
NORMAL. THIS IS THE GREATEST MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTAL RECORDED SINCE 
SEPTEMBER 2004 WHEN 4.05 INCHES FELL. TOTAL MONTHLY RAINFALL AT 
HARLINGEN WAS 3.16 INCHES OR 0.44 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. MCALLEN 
RECEIVED 0.73 OF INCH DURING THE MONTH, OR 1.95 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. 
YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO AVERAGE 3 
TO 6 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT 
MONITOR DUE TO CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF DEEP 
SOUTH TEXAS, EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. 
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AGRICULTURAL AND 
HYDROLOGICAL INTERESTS. 

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

FALCON AND AMISTAD RESERVOIRS PROVIDE MUCH OF THE WATER FOR THE 
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CURRENT STORAGE AT THE FALCON RESERVOIR IS 
HOLDING AT 41 PERCENT OF NORMAL CONSERVATION CAPACITY. AMISTAD 
RESERVOIR IS AT 79 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY. CURRENT STORAGE 
LEVEL AT THE AMISTAD RESERVOIR IS 1105.70 FEET...NORMAL CONSERVATION 
LEVEL IS 1117.00. AT THE FALCON RESERVOIR...CURRENT STORAGE IS 
277.43 FEET...NORMAL CONSERVATION IS 301.20. 

FIRE DANGER...

WILDFIRE DANGER REMAINS A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL 
RAINS DURING THE MONTH, WHILE MUCH OF THE WESTERN SECTIONS REMAINED 
MOSTLY DRY. AS A RESULT, FIRE DANGER OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS IS 
CONSIDER MODERATE, WITH A HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE WESTERN 
SECTIONS. CURRENT BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA...BROOKS... 
STARR...HIDALGO AND WILLACY COUNTIES. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS 
SHOULD TAKE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN CONDUCTING OUTSIDE BURNS. RESIDENTS 
OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTACT THEIR COUNTY OFFICIALS FOR 
INFORMATION ON CURRENT BURN BANS.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

RECENT RAINS REPLENISHED BADLY NEEDED SOIL MOISTURE OVER SOME SPOTS 
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. OTHER AREAS WHERE RAINFALL WAS LESS, SOIL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES VERY DRY. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER (CPC)...SOIL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS 
SEVERELY DRY. DAILY EVAPORATION RATES ARE AVERAGING A QUARTER TO 
NEAR A HALF AN INCH. ACCORDING TO THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF 
AGRICULTURE..."IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MANY DROUGHT STRICKEN 
FIELDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN DISASTERED OUT. SOUTH 
TEXAS DRYLAND CORN WAS STUNTED BADLY DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT. 
SOME IRRIGATION CONTINUED. WATERMELON AND SOME SORGHUM HARVEST WAS 
ONGOING. THE RAINS ALSO IMPROVED PASTURE AND RANCHLAND CONDITIONS, 
WITH SOME DRY AREAS REMAINING IN POOR CONDITION."

RESTRICTIONS...

SOME WATER SUPPLIERS HAVE IMPLEMENTED DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANS AND 
UPGRADED WATER RESTRICTION USAGE. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE 
URGED TO CONSERVE WATER. 

OUTLOOK...(JUNE 1ST - JUNE 15TH)...AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS 
FOR JUNE 1ST AND 2ND.  THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP OVERALL TEMPERATURES 
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR JUNE 1ST AND 2ND. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW 
PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM DEEP SOUTH 
TEXAS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO PLACE OVER DEEP SOUTH 
TEXAS WHICH WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAIN CHANCES FOR THE 
PERIOD FROM JUNE 3RD THROUGH JUNE 10TH. THIS INCREASED RIDGING WILL 
ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE PERIOD 
FROM JUNE 3RD THROUGH THE 10TH.  LONGER RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE THEN 
SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TEXAS 
COASTLINE FOR THE PERIOD FROM JUNE 11TH THROUGH JUNE 15TH WHICH WILL 
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY 
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
PERIOD FROM JUNE 11TH THROUGH THE 15TH WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMALS FOR EARLY JUNE.  AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR 
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR EARLY JUNE RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S 
WHILE AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE LOWER 70S.    

THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL ON JUNE 1ST AND 2ND AND FROM JUNE 11TH 
THROUGH JUNE 15TH MAY PROVIDE SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE 
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.  

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR JUNE 2006 THROUGH AUGUST 2006 FROM THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... 
INDICATES THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.  ALTHOUGH 
LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE 
UPCOMING SUMMER MONTHS...THE LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE SUMMER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL 
THAT OCCURS THROUGH AUGUST 2006 WILL PROVIDE SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM 
THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST FOR 
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO. YOU 
MAY ALSO VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER WEBSITE AT WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV AND GET THE LATEST INFORMATION ON 
RESERVOIRS LEVELS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER 
COMMISSION AT WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV.

$$

VEGA/SPEECE