AXNT20 KNHC 041810
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI 04 APR 2003

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE. 

TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
NO TROPICAL WAVES. 

AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION GOES FROM IVORY COAST NEAR 
7N6W...TO THE ATLC NEAR 3N11W 2N20W...EQUATOR AT 28W...EQUATOR AT
50W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN
10W AND 22W...WITHIN 215 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 23W
AND 32W...AND BECOMING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/
LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150-200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS WEST OF
32W.

MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO/SE TEXAS THEN DIVES SE TOWARD CENTRAL
CUBA. JET STREAM CONTINUES EASTWARD ALONG 20N SLOWING SOME AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EAST OF 50W. POSSIBLE
REMNANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...MIDDLE LEVEL NW WIND FLOW IN THE MIDDLE OF 
DRY AIR EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN NE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PROBABLY RELATED TO SURFACE TROUGH...PART OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM 30N30W TO 23N40W...23N40W
20N50W 19N60W 19N66W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...DEEP LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 32N33W IN EAST-CENTRAL 
ATLC TO 25N36W TO 23N49W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS SURFACE COLD FRONT/ 
TROUGH BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM 30N30W TO 23N40W...23N40W 20N50W 
19N60W 19N66W. BROAD RIDGE AND DRY AIR COVER REST OF ATLC SE AND
EAST OF 32N33 23N49W TROUGH...SOUTH OF 30N.

SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
RIDGE FROM ATLC NEAR 30N33W TO 29N46W TO 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 28N61W TO 29N76W...INTO NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W...
EVENTUALLY TO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 29N99W.

ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 30N30W TO 23N40W...TROUGH FROM 23N40W TO
20N50W TO 19N60W AND 19N66W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60-75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE THROUGH 32N28W 29N30W 20N50W 19N60W 20N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NE-NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19.5N TO 22N BETWEEN
66W AND 71W.

RIDGE FROM EASTERN ATLC NEAR 29N23W TO 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 25N26W 20N32W 17N43W AND 16N57W.

SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
LINES OF CLOUDS/SHOWERS...FORMED BY SURFACE WIND CONFLUENCE...
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
25N86W 28N88W 30N89W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NE-NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19.5N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W
AND 71W...WITH THE 23N40W 19N60W 19N66W TROUGH. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE...POSSIBLY WITH CLUSTERS OF BROKEN
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH 30N37W 23N50W 19N60W
COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY.

$$
MT