AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
910 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
...CLOUDY/WET/COLD THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS THRU THE FL PENINSULA             
THIS EVENING.  AT 01Z...THE WINDSHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM VENICE TO              
ST. AUGUSTINE.  EVENING TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE                        
M60S/L70S...WITH THE CRUX OF THE COLD AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER DOWN              
FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE:  SFC DEWPOINTS AT VALDOSTA HAVE FALLEN              
16F DEG SINCE 20Z.  MASSIVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING INTO THE              
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...THE 00Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS A 25C DEG                   
INVERSION IN THE H95-H80 LYR WHILE THE RUC40 ANALYSIS INDICATES                 
H85-H70 LYR RH AS LOW AS 5%.  DENSE STRATUS DECK PUSHING SE AS                  
WELL...MANY SITES REPORTING CIGS AOB 1500FT.                                    
MIN TEMPS IN THE AFTN PACKAGE SEEM A LITTLE BIT LOW CONSIDERING THE             
EVENING TEMPS...BUT PROBABLY NOT MORE THAN A SINGLE CAT.  WITH THE              
COLD AIR THAT'S PUSHING INTO THE NRN PENINSULA...AM LOATHE TO START             
TWEAKING THE AFTN PACKAGE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING ANY CHANGES WOULD            
BE LARGELY TRANSPARENT.  NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
S/SWRLY FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE               
AREA.  SEAS IN THE 3-5FT RANGE...BUT THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT IS                  
GENERATING VERY CHOPPY CONDITIONS WITH AVG WV PDS BLO 5SEC...WILL               
MENTION "CHOPPY" CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN ATLC WATERS.                           
WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO KICK UP TO CAUTIONARY LVLS UNTIL                 
FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE            
IN ERNEST.  NO SIG CHANGES ANTICIPATED.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT-TERM...LASCODY                                                            
LONG-TERM....BRAGAW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
536 PM MST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES IN SOME WESTERN LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY               
DROPPED BELOW MIN FORECASTS. SO HAD TO LOWER MINS THERE AND ADJUST              
HOURLY TRENDS ON TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL. WIND FIELD NON-            
EXISTENT RIGHT NOW. WILL UPDATE WITH REALITY AND RUC AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY ALL ZONES.               
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY ALL ZONES.               
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY ALL ZONES.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
255 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST DECISION IS WHEN WILL THE SNOW END (HOW SOON) AND             
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.                                                       
THE RUC40 AND ETA12 MIGRATE THE SNOW FIELD SOUTHWESTWARD AND CLEAR              
ALL SNOW FROM OUR CWA BY 03Z.  THE OTHER MODELS QUICKLY MOVE THE                
MEASURABLE SNOW FROM SW KANSAS INTO THE OKLA/TX PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00            
AND 06Z.  PLAN TO KEEP A 30 POP IN MORTON, STEVENS, AND SEWARD                  
COUNTIES TIL 04Z, AND 20 POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN 2/3RDS             
THROUGH 03Z.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED             
AFTER 00Z.  BTW, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE WEST 10                     
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST, AND THE PLAN IS TO LET IT DIE.                
AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT, EXPECT A RATHER QUICK CLEARING OUT OF                 
CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE              
WEAK WIND FIELD TO DECOUPLE AND WINDS TO GO LIGHT FOR A 4-6 HOUR                
PERIOD, BEFORE SHIFTING TO LIGHT SW BY MORNING.  WITH CLEAR SKIES               
AND LIGHT WINDS, ALONG WITH DRY DEW POINTS, THINK THE LOWS TONIGHT              
WILL BOTTOM OUT.  RAISED LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF JUST A                   
NOTCH, THINKING THE CLOUDS THERE WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO CLEAR OUT,            
AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN THERE THE SOONEST.  WILL HAVE TO             
WAIT AND SEE JUST HOW COLD IT GETS, AND HOW THE NEW SNOW FIELD                  
PLAYS A PART.  THE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS WIND CHILL INDICES.  EVEN             
WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 7 KTS, TEMPS THIS COLD YIELD WIND CHILLS IN              
THE -15 TO 19F RANGE BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.  WILL ADD MENTION OF WIND             
CHILLS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES, IF NOT GENERATED BY IFPS.                 
FOR NOW, WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEED                
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                                       
AS FOR FRIDAY, PLAN TO WARM MAX TEMPS UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES               
AND SW FLOW, UP AROUND 30-32F MOST PLACES, EXCEPT SW WHERE 3-4                  
INCHES OF SNOW FELL.  THIS TEMP PATTERN WILL HOLD TRUE THROUGH                  
CHRISTMAS, AS THE SNOW BANDS WILL PLAY A PART IN DAY TIME HEATING               
AND DIURNAL COOLING.                                                            
BEST MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE ETA, WHICH INITIALIZED BEST AT 5H AND              
SURFACE AT 12Z.  CLOSE BEHIND WAS THE NGM, BUT NGM SEEMS TOO WARM               
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF THE MID SECTION              
OF THE COUNTRY.                                                                 
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE              
LATTER PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST MID-NEXT WEEK...AS IT NOW               
APPEARS THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION OF             
KEEPING THE INITIAL TROUGH ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN POLAR              
WESTERLIES NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP THE PLAINS IN A GENERAL                   
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH MEANS DRY AND MILD.  ANY COLD AIR                   
INTRUSION WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE EJECTION OF THAT CUT-OFF                  
LOW...WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN IN TIME...AS A DEEPER, KICKER                  
SYSTEM DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM THE FAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF             
ALASKA REGION.  THERE'S PRETTY MUCH NO SKILL, HOWEVER, IN                       
DETERMINING WHEN THIS IS EXACTLY GOING TO HAPPEN TEN DAYS OUT.                  
THE THREE-DAY MEAN 500MB CHART FROM THE ECWMF VALID 8-10 DAYS                   
SUGGESTS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS WILL COME INTO THE WESTERN CONUS...AND            
THE MAKINGS OF ANOTHER COLD EPISODE COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE                
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE ARCTIC REGIONS             
NORTH OF THE BEARING STRAIT.  THE EXPERIMENTAL CDC REFORECAST MODEL             
ALSO SHOWS THIS SORT OF SIGNAL, BUT NOT AS PRONOUNCED IN THE                    
ENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE NEXT COLD EPISODE MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE            
8-10 DAY PERIOD...AND GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, WILL STAY WITH A                  
NEAR/NEAR 8-10 DAY OUTLOOK.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC 02 29 18 51 / 20 00 00 00                                                   
GCK 00 30 17 50 / 20 00 00 00                                                   
EHA 06 32 16 48 / 30 00 00 00                                                   
LBL 04 30 18 48 / 30 00 00 00                                                   
HYS -1 29 22 52 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
P28 01 27 19 51 / 20 00 00 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/25                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1050 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CHALLENGE OF FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT CAN STREAM OVER FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MI.              
TRENDS IN KGRR/KDTX 88DS HAVE SHOW ROGUE ELEMENTS BREAKING OFF MAIN             
BANDS AND SLIPPING INTO SOUTHERN CWA. SO FAR...DTW HAS SEEN LITTLE              
MORE THAN SCATTER MVFR CLOUDS...BUT ARB HAS RECEIVED SOME LIGHT SNOW            
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE CEILING BELOW 2KFT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.              
OVERALL TREND IN MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...               
PERHAPS JUST HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD PUSH AS ACTIVITY               
IS PENETRATING TO KFPK AND LOOKS TO BRUSH LAN/TEW IN THE NEXT FEW               
HOURS. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS TREND WON/T CONTINUE AND WILL HOLD THE            
CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT           
AND HOLDING IT TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A               
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BREAKS              
THIS CONNECTION TO SE LOWER MI DOWN.                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 850 PM EST.                                                 
ONLY PART OF FORECAST THAT SEEMS TO NEED UPDATING TONIGHT WILL BE               
LOW TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB             
REGION...SAY ALONG/EAST OF I 75 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I 69 OR PERHAPS              
EVEN THE M 59 CORRIDOR. 18Z ETA AND NEW 00Z RUC KEEP WEST WINDS AT              
5 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS ALREADY COMING TO FRUITION                
THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH 6-10 INCH SNOWPACK IN PLACE...THIS ARGUES              
FOR VERY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP               
EAST INTO THE AREA...THIS ALL ASSUMING THAT SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY             
CLEAR FOR PART OF THE NIGHT.                                                    
THIS IS THE TRICK AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS IN GENERAL             
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE GREATER INROADS INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL               
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WNW TO W TO WSW OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE            
EFFECT ACTIVITY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ANYWAY. AM NOT AS CONCERNED           
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER           
OR TWO...ARE ALREADY IN PLACE TO HELP INSULATE AND REDUCE RADIATIVE             
COOLING. AS OF  830 PM...ANOTHER NICELY ORGANIZED BAND IS ALSO TRYING           
TO SHIFT INTO THE "AREA OF CONCERN" FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.               
WOULD EXPECT THE WHOLE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS TO BE THE RULE OVER            
THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WON/T GO WITH PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT           
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH ANY AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WOULD DO JUST THAT)            
JUST PLAN ON SHAVING A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF IN AREAS THAT WILL REMAIN           
RELATIVELY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.                               
TOUGH CALL ON HOW LOW TO GO. WILL WATCH CLOSELY AND UPDATE AGAIN IF             
THE TEMPERATURES TAKE OFF DOWNWARD LATER THIS EVENING.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AT 331 PM EST.                                             
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.                                 
TROUGH AXIS TO PULL INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION                         
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S(C)              
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE            
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE GRADIENT               
SLACKENS. WITH THE WINDS DECREASING AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES                    
IMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN THUMB...WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD WARNING                 
EARLY.                                                                          
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO MOVE            
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY MORNING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK...WILL             
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST TONIGHT...5 TO 10 DEGREES...A            
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. 12Z MESOETA IMPLYING SOME TYPE OF I-94            
BAND TRYING TO SET UP BY 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON 1000 TO 850 MB                   
OMEGA/WIND FIELDS (ALTHOUGH WEAK). WITH HIGH RH INDICATED AT 925 AND            
850 MB...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TOMORROW BY 10 PERCENT. IT LOOKS LIKE              
WHATEVER I-94 BAND THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL ADVANCE NORTH                     
DURING THE DAY...INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS OSCILLATION SHOULD                
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. NONE-THE-LESS...WITH A VERY HIGH SNOW             
TO LIQUID RATIO...WILL CARRY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT              
EXPECT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BASED ON THE HEART OF            
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (1000 TO 500              
MB THICKNESSES AROUND 500 DAM). HOWEVER...WOULD THINK THE INFLUENCE             
OF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE GOOD FOR A 5 DEGREE                 
RISE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 331 PM EST.                                              
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO WEEKEND...WEAK RIDGE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN MI                
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE MODEL CHOICES BEGIN. THE ETA...SUPPORTED BY             
CANADIAN AND UKMET...BRINGS DEFINITIVE WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TO DELAY ONSET OF ANY REAL               
WARMING/RETURN FLOW...WHILE GFS AMONG OTHER MODELS JUST INDICATES               
LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHERN LAKES REGION. GIVEN GROWING                 
MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD ETA IDEA...WILL GO THAT ROUTE. AT 500 MB...TO            
GO ALONG WITH THIS...THE PREFERRED ETA AND OTHER MODELS...AFTER THE             
OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST...INDICATE A RECARVING OF              
TROUGHING INTO LAKES REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH...WITH PLAINS RIDGE MEANWHILE BUILDING UP.                                
DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT..THEN GOOD SATURDAY AND                  
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANYING LOW...THEN SHARP DRYING SUNDAY BEHIND               
THIS WAVE AS PER ETA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE MORE               
PLENTIFUL...WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT FOR CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS             
BEHIND LOW FOR SUNDAY. FRIGID AIR THAT POURS BACK IN FRIDAY WILL BE             
SLOW TO BE DISPLACED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PREFERRED ETA WEEKEND               
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.                                                              
850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY                     
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER GOOD FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOWED...EXCEPT INTEND TO               
RAISE TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING               
WAVE...LITTLE OR NO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.                                         
FOR NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MODELS EXHIBIT QUITE A                  
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH THEY DO AGREE ON A PATTERN               
CHANGE TO A WARMER REGIME. AT 500 MB...LOTS OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES               
WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES TROUGH/RIDGE FEATURES...GENERALLY               
PREFER ECMWF IDEA OF AGAIN SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER                 
PLAINS...BUT EVEN ECMWF DOES DENT THIS RIDGE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
IMPULSE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WARMER FLOW INDICATED IN                      
GENERAL...THOUGH PLENTY OF MODEL TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH             
AS TO SETTING UP OF STRONGER WARM RETURN FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT                    
PASSAGE OF WEAK TROUGHING. SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSENSUS AS TO PASSAGE            
OF WEAK TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY...PLUS INCREASING                    
MOISTURE ABOUT THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES UP INTO WESTERN LAKES REGION.              
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY...AND CHANCE             
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST                      
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...NOT BUYING INTO THE HIGH GUIDANCE                  
TEMPERATURES YET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW COVER TO                      
MELT...NOT ONLY OVERHEAD BUT IN STATES SOUTH OF MI AS WELL.                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GURNEY/SF/DWD                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
853 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND HAVE SEVERAL HEADLINES              
TO WORRY ABOUT. QUICK LOOK AT SFC OBS SHOWS THE WINDS ON LAND ARE               
WEST AND THE ETA AND RUC ARE NOT SHOWING THIS AND HAVE THE WINDS                
MORE NW THAN WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING. BOTH MODELS DID THE SAME               
THING LAST NIGHT. WITH THE WEST WINDS ON LAND...THIS HAS ACTUALLY               
PUSHED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS FURTHER EAST EVEN WITH THE NW                 
WINDS. KMQT RADAR SHOWING A MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT WAS IN              
EASTERN MQT COUNTY EARLIER HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BY THIS LAND BREEZE              
EAST INTO ALGER COUNTY. CALLS TO GOGEBIC COUNTY INDICATED THAT THERE            
IS NO HEAVY SNOW OCCURRING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL BE CANCELLING              
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING EARLY FOR GOGEBIC COUNTY AND WILL ALSO             
CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY EARLY FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY.                
WILL BE WORKING ON THE WSW PRODUCT SHORTLY TO HAVE IT OUT BY 10 PM              
AND WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE ZONES SHORTLY TOO. GOING FORECAST                 
OTHERWISE HAS THINGS WELL IN HAND.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY MIZ001-003.                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ006.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ002.                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ085.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MICHELS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
850 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY PART OF FORECAST THAT SEEMS TO NEED UPDATING TONIGHT WILL BE               
LOW TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB             
REGION...SAY ALONG/EAST OF I 75 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I 69 OR PERHAPS              
EVEN THE M 59 CORRIDOR. 18Z ETA AND NEW 00Z RUC KEEP WEST WINDS AT              
5 KNOTS OR SO OVERNIGHT...AND THIS IS ALREADY COMING TO FRUITION                
THIS EVENING. WITH FRESH 6-10 INCH SNOWPACK IN PLACE...THIS ARGUES              
FOR VERY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP               
EAST INTO THE AREA...THIS ALL ASSUMING THAT SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY             
CLEAR FOR PART OF THE NIGHT.                                                    
THIS IS THE TRICK AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS IN GENERAL             
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE GREATER INROADS INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL               
FLOW SHIFTS FROM WNW TO W TO WSW OVERNIGHT...IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE            
EFFECT ACTIVITY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ANYWAY. AM NOT AS CONCERNED           
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN CWA AS SCT/BKN CLOUDS...WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER           
OR TWO...ARE ALREADY IN PLACE TO HELP INSULATE AND REDUCE RADIATIVE             
COOLING. AS OF  830 PM...ANOTHER NICELY ORGANIZED BAND IS ALSO TRYING           
TO SHIFT INTO THE "AREA OF CONCERN" FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.               
WOULD EXPECT THE WHOLE IDEA OF INCREASING CLOUDS TO BE THE RULE OVER            
THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WON/T GO WITH PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT           
TEMPERATURES (ALTHOUGH ANY AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WOULD DO JUST THAT)            
JUST PLAN ON SHAVING A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF IN AREAS THAT WILL REMAIN           
RELATIVELY CLEAR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.                               
TOUGH CALL ON HOW LOW TO GO. WILL WATCH CLOSELY AND UPDATE AGAIN IF             
THE TEMPERATURES TAKE OFF DOWNWARD LATER THIS EVENING.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 555 PM EST.                                               
VRF CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE OF THE RULE TO START THIS FORECAST                
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF ARE                 
SLIDING EAST OF THE TAF SITES AS WE SPEAK. THAT WILL LEAVE THE                  
OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THAT WILL TRY TO SWEEP IN FROM               
WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BRINGING MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS                  
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GRR 88D SHOWS THE ACTIVITY              
TO BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED ATTM. HOWEVER...A FEW DECENT STREAMERS                
ARE SETTING UP FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAKING A RUN AT DTW/DET. THEY              
JUST CAN/T QUITE SURVIVE THE DOWNSLOPE AFTER REACHING THE "HIGHLAND"            
WEST OF THE TAF SITES.                                                          
FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT               
THROUGH FRIDAY AROUND THE BASE OF UPPER LOW THAT SINKS INTO THE                 
NORTHERN LAKES...LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED BANDS OF               
SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. 18Z ETA SOUNDING FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN             
SHORELINE NEAR BIV INDICATES THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TO ONLY EDGE DOWN            
FROM 8KFT THIS EVENING TO A GENERAL 7KFT ON FRIDAY...WITH 100-200               
J/KG OF CAPE HOLDING STRONG UNDER THE INVERSION AS COLD CORE OF AIR             
WORKS INTO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TAFS WITH              
THE IDEA OF MORE PREVALENT SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND                 
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THESE WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS MORE               
OFTEN THAN NOT THROUGH THE DAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...ISSUED AT 331 PM EST.                                             
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.                                 
TROUGH AXIS TO PULL INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION                         
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S(C)              
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE            
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE GRADIENT               
SLACKENS. WITH THE WINDS DECREASING AND SURFACE VISIBILITIES                    
IMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN THUMB...WILL CANCEL BLIZZARD WARNING                 
EARLY.                                                                          
AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...LAKE               
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO MOVE            
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY MORNING. WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK...WILL             
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST TONIGHT...5 TO 10 DEGREES...A            
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW GUIDANCE. 12Z MESOETA IMPLYING SOME TYPE OF I-94            
BAND TRYING TO SET UP BY 12Z FRIDAY...BASED ON 1000 TO 850 MB                   
OMEGA/WIND FIELDS (ALTHOUGH WEAK). WITH HIGH RH INDICATED AT 925 AND            
850 MB...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TOMORROW BY 10 PERCENT. IT LOOKS LIKE              
WHATEVER I-94 BAND THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP WILL ADVANCE NORTH                     
DURING THE DAY...INTO THE M-59 CORRIDOR. THIS OSCILLATION SHOULD                
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. NONE-THE-LESS...WITH A VERY HIGH SNOW             
TO LIQUID RATIO...WILL CARRY 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE ZONES. WOULD NOT              
EXPECT MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BASED ON THE HEART OF            
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS BEING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN (1000 TO 500              
MB THICKNESSES AROUND 500 DAM). HOWEVER...WOULD THINK THE INFLUENCE             
OF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE GOOD FOR A 5 DEGREE                 
RISE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED AT 331 PM EST.                                              
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO WEEKEND...WEAK RIDGE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN MI                
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE MODEL CHOICES BEGIN. THE ETA...SUPPORTED BY             
CANADIAN AND UKMET...BRINGS DEFINITIVE WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TO DELAY ONSET OF ANY REAL               
WARMING/RETURN FLOW...WHILE GFS AMONG OTHER MODELS JUST INDICATES               
LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER NORTHERN LAKES REGION. GIVEN GROWING                 
MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD ETA IDEA...WILL GO THAT ROUTE. AT 500 MB...TO            
GO ALONG WITH THIS...THE PREFERRED ETA AND OTHER MODELS...AFTER THE             
OVERALL HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST...INDICATE A RECARVING OF              
TROUGHING INTO LAKES REGION AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS DOWN FROM THE            
NORTH...WITH PLAINS RIDGE MEANWHILE BUILDING UP.                                
DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT..THEN GOOD SATURDAY AND                  
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANYING LOW...THEN SHARP DRYING SUNDAY BEHIND               
THIS WAVE AS PER ETA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER...WILL BE MORE               
PLENTIFUL...WITH SOME DEGREE OF LAKE EFFECT FOR CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS             
BEHIND LOW FOR SUNDAY. FRIGID AIR THAT POURS BACK IN FRIDAY WILL BE             
SLOW TO BE DISPLACED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PREFERRED ETA WEEKEND               
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.                                                              
850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY                     
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER GOOD FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.                    
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOWED...EXCEPT INTEND TO               
RAISE TEMPERATURES SUBSTANTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF INCOMING               
WAVE...LITTLE OR NO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.                                         
FOR NEXT WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MODELS EXHIBIT QUITE A                  
VARIETY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH THEY DO AGREE ON A PATTERN               
CHANGE TO A WARMER REGIME. AT 500 MB...LOTS OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES               
WITH WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES TROUGH/RIDGE FEATURES...GENERALLY               
PREFER ECMWF IDEA OF AGAIN SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER                 
PLAINS...BUT EVEN ECMWF DOES DENT THIS RIDGE WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH              
IMPULSE TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...WARMER FLOW INDICATED IN                      
GENERAL...THOUGH PLENTY OF MODEL TO MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...BOTH             
AS TO SETTING UP OF STRONGER WARM RETURN FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT                    
PASSAGE OF WEAK TROUGHING. SOME SEMBLANCE OF CONSENSUS AS TO PASSAGE            
OF WEAK TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY...PLUS INCREASING                    
MOISTURE ABOUT THURSDAY AS LOW MOVES UP INTO WESTERN LAKES REGION.              
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY...AND CHANCE             
RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY. WILL KEEP CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST                      
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK...NOT BUYING INTO THE HIGH GUIDANCE                  
TEMPERATURES YET...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEP SNOW COVER TO                      
MELT...NOT ONLY OVERHEAD BUT IN STATES SOUTH OF MI AS WELL.                     
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY               
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
.LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EARLY THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF/DWD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
315 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP UPR TROF               
OVER CNTRL NAMERICA WITH H5 TEMPS AOB -40C AS FAR S AS NEBRASKA. FA             
IN CYC NLY FLOW BTWN ARCTIC HI PRES NR LK WINNIPEG AND POWERHOUSE               
SFC LO MOVING INTO THE NE US...AND COLD FLOW (H85 TEMPS IN THE -20C             
TO -25C RANGE) CAUSING NMRS LES BANDS PRIMARILY INTO THE WRN U.P.               
AND BTWN MQT AND MUNISING. LO TEMPS THIS MRNG CLOSE TO SFC HI -20F              
TO -40F. SHRTWV NOTED MOVING INTO NW WI AND ASSOCIATED DPVA/H85-5               
QVECTOR CNVGC APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. DLH 88D               
DEPICTED LES BAND COMING ONSHORE NR IWD...WITH REFLECTIVITY UP TO               
10K FT. IWD CONSISTENTLY REPORTING VSBY NR 1/2SM THIS MRNG INTO THE             
AFTN. 12Z INL SDNG IS DRY ABV SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...BUT TRAJECTORIES             
APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE FM YPL...WHERE 12Z SDNG DEPICTS HI RH UP TO            
H65. ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING INTO NRN MANITOBA THIS MRNG ACCOMPANIED              
BY MID CLD/SOME -SN.                                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES TRENDS/ACCUMS/GOING                     
HEADLINES AND POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVY OVER THE INLAND ZNS.           
FOR TNGT...MODELS SHOW SHRTWV OVER NRN MANITOBA DROPPING TOWARD LK              
SUP BY 12Z FRI...WITH DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/12HR FCST H5 HGT                 
FALLS ARPCHG 100M ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS ARE             
QUITE LO WITHIN THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...THE HI RH SHOWN ON THE YPL SDNG            
AND THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THE SHRTWV SUG POTENTIAL FOR SGNFT LES            
DESPITE LO TEMPS THAT MIGHT OTRW LIMIT DENDRITIC SN GROWTH. AS                  
DEEPER SFC LO TO THE E CONTINUES TO MOVE NE INTO SE CAN OVERNGT...              
MODELS SHOW PRES GRADIENT LOOSENING UP AND VORTEX DVLPG OVER ERN LK             
SUP IN RESPONSE TO LATENT HEATING FM THE RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS              
AND WEAKER SYNOPTIC WINDS. USED FINER RESOLUTION ETA RUNS FOR FCST              
DETAILS AS LARGER SCALE MODELS IN AGREEMENT VORTEX WL DVLP. WITH                
APRCH OF MANITOBA SHRTWV AND VORTEX DVLPMNT...LARGER SCALE LLVL                 
WINDS BACK STRONGLY TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION DURING THE NGT. FINER               
RESOLUTION ETA WINDS SHOW SHARP H95 CNVGC IN ERN MQT/WRN ALGER AND              
OVER GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON THIS EVNG SHIFTING INTO NRN CMX COUNTY AND               
ERN ALGER COUNTY BY 12Z FRI IN RESPONSE TO THESE DVLPMNTS AND DVLPG             
LAND BREEZE/INTRUDING SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR. HAVE OPTED TO CONT MQT                
ADVY INTO THIS EVNG AND UPGRADE WATCHES OVER KEWEENAW COUNTIES AND              
ALGER TO A LK EFFECT SN WRNG. SINCE BETTER CNVGC WL SHIFT TO THE                
N... WL GO WITH ONLY A MINIMAL ADVY FOR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY TNGT.            
GOING FCST FOR LES TO DIMINISH OVER GOGEBIC COUNTY OVERNGT APPEARS              
ON TARGET GIVEN THIS FCST AS WELL. TREND FOR BACKING WINDS FCST TO              
CONTINUE ON FRI AS SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE E OF ANJ...WITH RISING                   
HGTS/DNVA IN ITS WAKE DURING THE AFTN. FINER RESOLUTION ETA RUNS                
SHOW AXIS OF SHARP CNVGC BTWN LAND BREEZE FLOW AND MORE NLY                     
COMPONENT OVER LK SUP MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT VORTEX OVER ERN LK               
SUP EDGING SLOWLY N DURING THE DAY TOWARD KEWEENAW COUNTY AND                   
COASTAL ALGER COUNTY ARND GRM. WL LEAVE WRNG FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY               
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED FRI MRNG AND CONT WRNGS FOR KEWEENAW ZNS THE                
ENTIRE DAY AND OVER ALGER COUNTY TO THE AFTN. TENDED TOWARD LO END              
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR LO TEMPS TNGT/HI TEMPS FRI IN AREAS NOT                     
EXPERIENCING LK SUP MODIFICATION GIVEN SHALLOW NATURE OF INCOMING               
COLD AIRMASS AND OBSVD LO TEMPS THIS MRNG UPSTREAM. MANY PLACES OVER            
THE W HALF OF CWA MAY NOT SEE TMAX GET ABV ZERO ON FRI. WIND CHILLS             
TNGT INTO EARLY FRI OVER INLAND AREAS WL DEPEND ON WHETHER SUSTAINED            
WIND SPEEDS WL EXCEED 10 MPH. GFS/ETA/NGM MOS SHOW PREDOMINANT SFC              
WINDS DECREASING TO UNDER 10 MPH DURING THIS TIME...SO EVEN THOUGH              
AN OCNL WIND SPEED OVER 10 MPH MAY CAUSE THE WIND CHILL TO FALL TO              
ADVY/WRNG CRITERIA...WL NOT HEADLINE ATTM.                                      
WITH RISING HGTS FCST TO CONT FRI NGT...CORE OF DEEP COLD AIR                   
PROGGED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE N WITH BACKING LARGER SCALE WNDS TO              
MORE WSW OVERNGT. THINK THIS TREND WL PUSH ERN LK SUP VORTEX/BETTER             
H95 CNVGC FAR ENUF N TO END LES DURING THE NGT. KEWEENAW COUNTY IS              
FCST TO REMAIN WITHIN AXIS OF SHARPER CNVGC UNTIL ALMOST 06Z...SO               
HAVE EXTENDED WRNG THRU FRI EVNG FOR THE KEWEENAW ZNS. MEANWHILE...             
LARGER SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FCST TO COMMENCE ON THE 280K                    
ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H7)...SO EXPECT AN INCRS IN MID/HI CLD DURING              
THE NGT THAT WL TEND TO PUT A BRAKE ON HOW FAR TEMPS CAN FALL.                  
HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT BRUTALLY COLD READINGS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS            
SO LOW. THE LOWEST TEMPS PROBABLY WL BE CLOSER TO LOWER GFS MOS                 
GUIDANCE (PROBABLY LOWER THAN THAT AT AREAS WHICH DECOUPLE) AND                 
REACHED RELATIVELY EARLY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF WAD CLD. WIND SPEEDS             
SHOULD BE LGT ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY WIND CHILL CONCERNS AS MODELS                
HINT AT A SFC RDG AXIS ARRIVING IN THE EVNG.                                    
GENERAL ISENTROPIC LIFT FCST TO CONT ON SAT AS CORE OF COLD AIR                 
CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW A WEAK                 
SHRTWV/SFC LO RACING SE AND ACRS WI IN THE AFTN. SINCE SYS WL BE                
QUITE MSTR STARVED...SEEMS LIKE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY -SN WL BE              
OVER THE ERN ZNS DOWNWIND OF LK MI. WL CARRY A CHC OF -SN NEAR THE              
SW BORDER AND DOWNWIND OF LK MI IN THE MRNG...THEN ACRS THE ENTIRE              
AREA DURING THE AFTN WITH SOMEWHAT HIER POPS DOWNWIND OF LK MI.                 
RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE LLVL WINDS WL HAVE SO MUCH OF A WLY                    
COMPONENT THAT THE BETTER CHC OF LK ENHANCEMENT OFF LK MI WL BE INTO            
MACKINAC COUNTY. TEMPS WL STILL BE WELL BLO NORMAL DESPITE THE WAD              
WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND -17C. WL TEND TOWARD THE LO END OF MOS                 
GUIDANCE FOR TMAX.                                                              
SOME TROUBLING TRENDS ON THE LATEST RUNS FOR SAT NGT/SUN AS ETA AND             
ESPECIALLY UKMET AS THESE MODELS SHOW CLIPPER LO WHICH STREAKS THRU             
WI INTENSIFYING TO THE E WITH MORE CYC LLVL NE FLOW OVER THE FA SAT             
NGT/SUN. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE ALSO HINTS AT THIS TREND                
EVEN THOUGH OPERATIONAL RUN IS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE ETA/UKMET. HAVE             
OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING SN CHCS ON SAT NGT/SUN TO REFLECT THE                   
POTENTIAL FOR THIS CLIPPER SYS BRINGING A MORE SUSTAINED PD OF -SN.             
WL LOWER TEMPS TO REFLECT A MORE NLY WIND COMPONENT AND LESS LARGE              
SCALE WRMG.                                                                     
EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD A MODIFICATION OF             
THE ARCTIC CHILL NEXT WEEK WITH A TREND TOWARD A DEEPENING TROF IN              
THE W AND A BLDG RDG IN THE E. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DETAILS APPEAR               
QUITE MUDDLED ATTM AS FAR AS THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS AND               
PCPN EPISODES IN THE WAD REGIME IN ADVANCE OF THESE SYSTEMS. SO                 
RIGHT NOW...WL TEND TOWARD A COMBINATION OF NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE/00Z            
GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME LGT WAD PCPN              
ON MON/TUE...THEN A DRY DAY ON WED AS HI PRES UNDER AN UPR                      
CONFLUENCE ZN TO THE N OF THE BLDG SE RDG EXPANDS INTO THE AREA.                
NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE FAVORS APRCH OF ANOTHER LO PRES ON THU...SO WL             
GO WITH A CHC OF SN LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A WINTRY            
MIX OF PCPN IN THE FCST OF MON AFTN/TUE MRNG AS GFS REFCST ENSEMBLE             
MEAN H100-5 THKNS AOA 540DM AND OPERATIONAL RUNS SHOWING H85 TEMPS              
AOA 0C. WL GO WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO WARMER OPERATIONAL GFS MOS                   
GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN CLOSER TO COLDER ENSEMBLE MOS                 
GUIDANCE ON WED/THU WITH PROSPECT OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED              
WITH HIER PRES SCENARIO.                                                        
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY MIZ001-003.                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ006.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ002.                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TNGT MIZ009.                        
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ005.                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY MIZ085.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1057 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL                
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS                
HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF             
THIS TROUGH ARE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WESTERN ILLINOIS...                
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS                   
INDICATING A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK TROUGH                  
STRETCHING WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM            
A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND THROUGH              
SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO               
INTO THE DAKOTAS IS PRODUCING TEMPERATURES AROUND -22C ACROSS LAKE              
SUPERIOR. A 925MB WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING SOME            
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE                 
WESTERN U.P.                                                                    
THE WISCONSIN WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.P. THIS               
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE                
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN                
STATIONARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN ONTARIO RIDGE              
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SLIDE A                  
LITTLE EAST CAUSING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO                
LOWER TO -24C. 925MB CONVERGENCE AREA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH             
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN U.P. TO INCLUDE              
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ETA SOUNDING                   
FORECASTS INDICATE THE LOWEST INVERSION LEVEL AROUND 3500FEET OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO AROUND 6400 FEET BY LATE                
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASE LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS DRY WITH THE DEW            
POINTS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AROUND -26C AND 950MB RH WILL BE AROUND             
85 PERCENT PER RUC/ETA40 WHICH WOULD INDICATE A NEED FOR A LITTLE               
MORE FETCH TIME TO SATURATE OUT THE LOWEST LAYERS. THE LES DECISION             
TREE STILL SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN U.P.            
THIS AFTERNOON AND 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF             
THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHICH IS CLOSE TO THAT WHICH IS ALREADY                  
FORECASTED. SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TWEAKING AS WELL.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ002 THROUGH TONIGHT.                                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ009 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MIZ005 THROUGH THIS EVENING.                          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ001-003 THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ006 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MI085 TONIGHT.                                        
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE LES AMOUNTS.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM            
HUDSON BAY TO THE SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING            
NE THRU THE OHIO VALLEY WITH NW EDGE OF ASSOCIATED SNOW SHIELD WELL             
TO THE SE OF HERE. INCREASINGLY COLDER ARCTIC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY               
FILTER INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON NW WINDS. 00Z RAOBS SHOW 850MB             
TEMPS RANGING FROM -15C/-19C AT KGRB/KAPX RESPECTIVELY TO -24/-25C              
AT KINL/CWPL. UPSTREAM KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STABLE BUT MOIST              
PROFILES...ESPECIALLY CWPL WHICH HAD DWPT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 3C              
ALL THE WAY UP TO 630MB (11.6KFT MSL). AS ANTICIPATED...LOW-LEVEL               
WINDS HAVE VEERED OVERNIGHT TO A NRLY DIRECTION WHICH HAS RESULTED              
IN LES SHIFTING BACK INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY AND INCREASING LES INTO              
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES. KDLH RADAR IS EVEN PICKING UP LES BANDS             
STREAMING INTO FAR WRN GOGEBIC COUNTY...SO AT LEAST MDT LES IS                  
OCCURRING THERE.                                                                
FCST ISSUE TODAY WILL BE LES IN GENERAL NRLY FLOW WHILE ATTENTION               
TONIGHT/FRI TURNS TO WNW FLOW FAVORED LES BELTS. GOING FCST LOOKS TO            
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE TRENDS. NRLY FLOW TODAY WILL FAVOR                  
NCNTRL FCST AREA WHERE CURRENT ADVY IS IN PLACE AND FAR WRN AREAS               
(GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON COUNTIES). LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGER            
OVER THE FAR W THAN NCNTRL AS A RESULT OF MORE PRONOUNCED BACKING OF            
WINDS OVER APOSTLE ISLANDS/FAR NW WI AS IS TYPICAL WITH VERY HIGH               
LAND-LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCE (NOTE W WIND AT KASX/KIWD...NW WIND AT                
DISW4 AND NNE WIND AT ONTONAGON). WITH INVERSIONS RUNNING AROUND                
6KFT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LONG OVERWATER FETCH...                 
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE WARNING CRITERIA AMOUNTS (8 INCHES/12HRS              
TODAY). WITH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO NCNTRL FCST AREA...              
ADVY AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES SHOULD SUFFICE.                                     
TONIGHT/FRI...ETA HAS COME AROUND TOWARD A GFS TYPE SOLUTION WITH               
REGARD TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACKING MORE TONIGHT AS GRADIENT SLACKENS             
A BIT...ALLOWING STRONGER LAND BREEZE INFLUENCE ON WIND FIELDS.                 
SHORTWAVE DROPPING S TOWARD WRN LAKES ALSO SUPPORTS AT LEAST SOME               
BACKING OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. END RESULT WILL BE BULK OF              
LES SHIFTING E OF PROBABLY ALL OF MARQUETTE COUNTY THIS EVENING                 
EXCEPT PERHAPS AREAS NEAR BIG BAY AND SHOT POINT. LES SHOULD ALSO               
SHIFT N OF GOGEBIC COUNTY PROBABLY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
THE BACKING OF WINDS ALL ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO                
MORE OF A WRLY DIRECTION WHILE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE NW OVER WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR AND EVEN MORE NRLY TO NE ACROSS ERN SUPERIOR DUE TO LAND               
BREEZE OFF ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO PRONOUNCED CONVERGENCE ZONES WHICH              
SHOULD FOCUS ON ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES AND ALGER COUNTY.                   
HOWEVER...ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION...             
FURTHER SUPPRESSING FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. ON THE OTHER               
HAND...DEVELOPING STRONG CONVERGENCE ZONES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE                
LOCAL LOW-LEVEL TEMP MODIFICATION WITHIN SNOW BANDS THAN MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE...ALLOWING FOR MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH. IN                
ADDITION...WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE               
LES. AT THIS POINT...PREFER TO MAINTAIN GOING WATCHES WHICH BEGIN               
TONIGHT FOR KEWEENAW/NRN HOUGHTON AND ALGER COUNTIES TO ALLOW                   
ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF DEVELOPING                
CONVERGENCE ZONES. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF PROJECTED CONVERGENCE...SRN               
HOUGHTON COUNTY MAY NEED AN ADVY TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR                
M38. WELL TO THE E IN LUCE COUNTY...INTERESTING TO SEE ETA AND RUC13            
INDICATING SUFFICIENT COLD AIR DRAINAGE OFF ERN ONTARIO TO SHIFT                
WINDS TO AN ERLY DIRECTION THERE (EVEN GFS HINTS AT THIS). MODELS               
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A MESOLOW NEAR GRAND MARAIS (WILL BE INTERESTING             
TO SEE IF THAT DOES OCCUR). AS A RESULT...LOOKS LIKE LUCE COUNTY MAY            
SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LES TONIGHT.                                           
GFS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS FRI WHILE ETA                  
SHIFTS CONVERGENCE N TO THE KEWEENAW AND TO EASTERN ALGER AND                   
PERHAPS FAR NRN LUCE COUNTY. DON'T HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR WHAT                    
SOLUTION IS BETTER...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF POTENTIAL FOR MESOLOWS              
TO COMPLICATE WIND FIELDS. AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH            
GOING FCST WHICH HAS KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALGER IN MAIN LES...                
SIMILAR TO GFS TYPE SOLUTION.                                                   
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK SUFFICIENTLY FRI NIGHT TO BRING AN END TO LES              
ACROSS ALL OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH -SN CHC             
ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND              
WAA REGIME. HAVE FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS A UKMET/CANADIAN            
SOLUTION...AND WILL THUS BRING -SN CHC INTO THE AREA CHRISTMAS AFTN             
AS OPPOSED TO THE EVENING.                                                      
AS FOR TEMPS...DEFINITELY PREFER THE COLDER GFS MOS NUMBERS OVER THE            
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS IN SCNTRL CANADA             
WHERE AFTN HIGHS HAVE ONLY BEEN -10 TO -25F. CORE OF COLDEST AIR                
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRI AND WOULD EXPECT MANY AREAS TO STRUGGLE TO            
REACH ZERO FRI AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF FCST AREA. IF FCST              
AREA HAD SNOW COVERED FIELDS RATHER THAN FOREST...HIGHS WOULD EVEN              
BE COLDER. LOWS FRI MORNING WILL PROBABLY APPROACH -20F WHERE THERE             
IS LESS CLOUD COVER...SAME FOR SAT MORNING IF WAA CLOUDS HOLD OFF               
LONG ENOUGH. WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA DURING THE               
NIGHTS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE BLO 10MPH                     
THRESHOLD IN THE COLDER AREAS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ002 THROUGH TONIGHT.                                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MIZ009 UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TODAY MIZ005-006.                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TONIGHT-FRI MIZ001-003-006-085.                          
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1015 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)                                                     
WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS AND ADJUST TEMPS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL               
AND RADAR DATA...CATEGORICAL POPS WARRANTED FOR REST OF TODAY. WILL             
SCALE FROM 100 INLAND TO 80 OUTER BANKS. ALSO MINOR TEMP                        
ADJUSTMENT...MAINLY FOR 65-70 SRN OUTER BANKS (ALREADY 69 AT                    
HSE).                                                                           
WILL CONTINUE ISOLD TSTM MENTION BUT LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL            
PRECLUDE SVR THREAT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN                   
ASSOCIATION WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION. HAVE UPDATED TO                
CONTINUE THESE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS A TEMPORARY CASE THOUGH AS                
AREAS OUTSIDE SHOWERS ARE STILL VFR. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE            
AFTN MVFR WILL BECOME THE PREVAILING CONDITION.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIMITED REAL TIME DATA NEAR SHORE AGAIN TODAY BUT DID                 
NOTICE THAT DUCK COE REPORTS SEAS HAVE REACHED 6 FT 2 MILES OUT. AND            
WHILE WINDS HAVE YET TO INCREASE WITH QUICK SCAT AND BUOYS SHOWING              
STRONGER WINDS WELL OFF SHORE FEEL IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL            
NEAR SHORE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS WELL. SURF CAMS ACROSS NRN                
WATERS DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE YET BUT WITH DUCK READING OF 6 FT            
FEEL CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING SEAS THROUGH THE DAY IS ON            
THE RIGHT TRACK. WILL PLAN NO SIG UPDATES THIS MRNG. EARLIER                    
CONCERNS ABOUT MIXING DOWN GALE FORCE WINDS IN CONVECTION STILL AN              
ISSUE BUT LATEST RUC INDICATES H8 WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS                  
EARLIER AND WITH RAIN STABILIZES BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING MAY BE             
MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE DOWN...EXCEPT ALONG FAR EASTERN EDGE OF             
MARINE ZONES CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM WHERE WATERS ARE A BIT WARMER            
AND OVERLYING AIRMASS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE. STILL FEEL ANY GUSTS               
WOULD BE SHORT LIVED ENOUGH TO HANDLE WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS              
IF NEEDED AS OPPOSED TO A GALE WARNING.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JBM                                                                
AVIATION/MARINE...MF                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
944 PM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL DROP MENTION OF LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.               
WINDS NEVER REALLY PICKED UP DURING THE EVENING AS AREA WAS UNDER A             
WEAKNESS IN THE ISOBAR FIELD. BEST PACKING REMAINED TO OUR                      
WEST WHERE WINDS WERE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS PORTION OF GA. RUC/MESO             
ETA INDICATE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD             
IN FROM THE WEST. TIME SECTIONS INDICATE NICE 30 TO 35 KT LOW LEVEL             
JET OVERNIGHT. THINK WINDS WILL PICK UP AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN              
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 THROUGH MORNING...STAYING BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY             
CRITERIA. SATELLITE SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM...            
SO WILL INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LCV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
710 PM MST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH LEE TROF/WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA.               
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND             
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FORECAST IN MANY AREAS. WARM              
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING TONIGHT...AND               
ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO            
REBOUND SOME...MAINLY IN THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.              
AREA OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM                   
ADVECTION. 00Z RUC SHIFTING BEST LIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WITH            
DRY AIR IN PLACE...AND LATER TIMING OF BEST LIFT...PUSHED HIGHEST               
POPS BACK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR PERIOD OF               
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. WINDS START OUT            
MORE WESTERLY...SO INITIAL UPSLOPE SNOW WILL IN THE O'NEIL PASS/FOUR            
CORNERS AREA.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
945 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SNOW CONTINUES FROM CARLSBAD TO SNYDER.  SO FAR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL               
AROUND 3 INCHES REPORTED AT CARLSBAD AND STILL FALLING SO HAVE                  
UPGRADE TO A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR EDDY AND LEA AND GUADALUPE                  
MOUNTAINS.  EDDY COUNTY S.O. REPORTS NUMEROUS PROBLEMS WITH WRECKS              
AND CARS IN DITCHES AND RECOMMEND DRIVERS THERE STAY OFF OF THE                 
ROAD.                                                                           
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM BAJA CA THRU COLORADO.               
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SHRTWV TROF IN BASE OF TROF AXIS INVOF BAJA CA            
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV IN WRN AZ. MID LEVEL ASCENT LOOKS TO BE JUST                
STARTING TO COMMENCE WITH IR INDICATING COOLING TOPS IN W/CENTRAL               
NM. ETA40/RUC IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN GENERATING STRONG LIFT                  
(PER INCREASING UPGLIDE ALONG I285-290K/7H WAA ALONG/PVA) ACRS SE NM            
BTWN 21Z-03Z. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE SE NM IS FAVORED AREA               
FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN              
GENERATING PRECIP ACRS SE NM/NW PB/UPPER TRANS PECOS GIVING                     
CONFIDENCE TO CRITERIA FOR SNOW ADVISORY (2-4 INCHES) BEING MET.                
THUS ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY EARLIER FOR SE NM AND GDP MTNS. WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MOVING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FARTHER E AND                
S...ALTHOUGH NW PB...VAN HORN REGION...AND DAVIS MTNS COULD SEE                 
AROUND 2 INCHES BEFORE SUNRISE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR               
FOR UPDATES. 1 INCH OR LESS EXPECTED IN MIDLAND/ODESSA. SNOW COVER              
AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED LOWS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 ACRS NW-NE CWFA            
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC PLOT INDICATES NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS             
MVG INTO OKLA PANHANDLE AND WILL BE INTO PB BEFORE SUNRISE. THUS                
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20               
MPH MOST AREAS WITH ARCTIC AIR...GUSTS TO 45 MPH THRU GDP PASS.                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A              
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BY               
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN PAC/PAC NW                
WITH RIDGING IN STORE FOR THE PLAINS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE               
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THIS LARGE-SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW              
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH REGARDS TO A            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS                  
FEATURE COULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA...OTHERWISE NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST.              
AS FOR THE DETAILS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF A              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE                
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN AND               
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE LOW ORDER CHANCE POPS THROUGH               
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MID-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE WEAK LIFT               
WILL GENERALLY WANE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE THE           
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH            
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LIFT AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. NEGATING FACTOR             
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER               
THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND UPPER            
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE BY LATE SATURDAY AND THIS TREND WILL                
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM                 
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE OPTED TO                  
GENERALLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE AS MODELS TEND TO SCOUR COLD AIR OUT              
TOO QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO             
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL BE LIKELY. SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH                   
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES WILL           
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO              
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A                 
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON            
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF            
THE TREND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS CONTINUES...WE MAY NEED TO PULL             
OR DELAY RAIN CHANCES.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX             13  29  18  48 /  50  10   0   0                      
CARLSBAD NM               14  29  16  49 /  70  30   0   0                      
DRYDEN TX                 20  36  19  51 /  30  20   0   0                      
FORT STOCKTON TX          19  33  23  51 /  50  30   0   0                      
GUADALUPE PASS TX         11  26  18  41 /  60  40   0   0                      
HOBBS NM                  15  31  17  48 /  70  10   0   0                      
MARFA TX                  14  26  11  45 /  50  40   0   0                      
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   15  30  18  47 /  60  10   0   0                      
ODESSA TX                 15  31  18  48 /  60  10   0   0                      
WINK TX                   17  35  18  52 /  60  20   0   0                      
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING TONIGHT FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS                         
     TXZ258.                                                                    
     SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.                          
     TXZ045-046-050-051.                                                        
NM...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...                
     NMZ027>029-033-034.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
605 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EXPANDED SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE 4 COUNTIES IN WESTERN PERMIAN                 
BASIN AS AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPANDING EASTWARD.  SNOW-LINE               
APPEARS TO JUST CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ECTOR COUNTY AND HAVE                 
CHOSEN TO LEAVE IT OUT AT THIS TIME.  IF SNOW BUILDS SOUTHWARD                  
LATER UPDATES MAY BE NECESSARY.                                                 
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM BAJA CA THRU COLORADO.               
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SHRTWV TROF IN BASE OF TROF AXIS INVOF BAJA CA            
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV IN WRN AZ. MID LEVEL ASCENT LOOKS TO BE JUST                
STARTING TO COMMENCE WITH IR INDICATING COOLING TOPS IN W/CENTRAL               
NM. ETA40/RUC IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN GENERATING STRONG LIFT                  
(PER INCREASING UPGLIDE ALONG I285-290K/7H WAA ALONG/PVA) ACRS SE NM            
BTWN 21Z-03Z. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE SE NM IS FAVORED AREA               
FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN              
GENERATING PRECIP ACRS SE NM/NW PB/UPPER TRANS PECOS GIVING                     
CONFIDENCE TO CRITERIA FOR SNOW ADVISORY (2-4 INCHES) BEING MET.                
THUS ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY EARLIER FOR SE NM AND GDP MTNS. WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MOVING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FARTHER E AND                
S...ALTHOUGH NW PB...VAN HORN REGION...AND DAVIS MTNS COULD SEE                 
AROUND 2 INCHES BEFORE SUNRISE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR               
FOR UPDATES. 1 INCH OR LESS EXPECTED IN MIDLAND/ODESSA. SNOW COVER              
AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED LOWS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 ACRS NW-NE CWFA            
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC PLOT INDICATES NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS             
MVG INTO OKLA PANHANDLE AND WILL BE INTO PB BEFORE SUNRISE. THUS                
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20               
MPH MOST AREAS WITH ARCTIC AIR...GUSTS TO 45 MPH THRU GDP PASS.                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A              
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BY               
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN PAC/PAC NW                
WITH RIDGING IN STORE FOR THE PLAINS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE               
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THIS LARGE-SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW              
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH REGARDS TO A            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS                  
FEATURE COULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA...OTHERWISE NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST.              
AS FOR THE DETAILS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF A              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE                
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN AND               
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE LOW ORDER CHANCE POPS THROUGH               
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MID-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE WEAK LIFT               
WILL GENERALLY WANE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE THE           
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH            
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LIFT AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. NEGATING FACTOR             
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER               
THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND UPPER            
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE BY LATE SATURDAY AND THIS TREND WILL                
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM                 
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE OPTED TO                  
GENERALLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE AS MODELS TEND TO SCOUR COLD AIR OUT              
TOO QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO             
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL BE LIKELY. SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH                   
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES WILL           
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO              
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A                 
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON            
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF            
THE TREND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS CONTINUES...WE MAY NEED TO PULL             
OR DELAY RAIN CHANCES.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX             13  29  18  48 /  50  10   0   0                      
CARLSBAD NM               14  29  16  49 /  70  30   0   0                      
DRYDEN TX                 20  36  19  51 /  30  20   0   0                      
FORT STOCKTON TX          19  33  23  51 /  50  30   0   0                      
GUADALUPE PASS TX         11  26  18  41 /  60  40   0   0                      
HOBBS NM                  15  31  17  48 /  70  10   0   0                      
MARFA TX                  14  26  11  45 /  50  40   0   0                      
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   15  30  18  47 /  60  10   0   0                      
ODESSA TX                 15  31  18  48 /  60  10   0   0                      
WINK TX                   17  35  18  52 /  60  20   0   0                      
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF                       
     CULBERSON COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...                  
     TXZ045-046-050-051-258.                                                    
NM...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...                
     NMZ027>029-033-034.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
245 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM BAJA CA THRU COLORADO.               
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SHRTWV TROF IN BASE OF TROF AXIS INVOF BAJA CA            
WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV IN WRN AZ. MID LEVEL ASCENT LOOKS TO BE JUST                
STARTING TO COMMENCE WITH IR INDICATING COOLING TOPS IN W/CENTRAL               
NM. ETA40/RUC IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN GENERATING STRONG LIFT                  
(PER INCREASING UPGLIDE ALONG I285-290K/7H WAA ALONG/PVA) ACRS SE NM            
BTWN 21Z-03Z. TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE SE NM IS FAVORED AREA               
FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH. MODEL QPF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN              
GENERATING PRECIP ACRS SE NM/NW PB/UPPER TRANS PECOS GIVING                     
CONFIDENCE TO CRITERIA FOR SNOW ADVISORY (2-4 INCHES) BEING MET.                
THUS ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY EARLIER FOR SE NM AND GDP MTNS. WILL                  
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON MOVING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FARTHER E AND                
S...ALTHOUGH NW PB...VAN HORN REGION...AND DAVIS MTNS COULD SEE                 
AROUND 2 INCHES BEFORE SUNRISE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR               
FOR UPDATES. 1 INCH OR LESS EXPECTED IN MIDLAND/ODESSA. SNOW COVER              
AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOWED LOWS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 ACRS NW-NE CWFA            
THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC PLOT INDICATES NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS             
MVG INTO OKLA PANHANDLE AND WILL BE INTO PB BEFORE SUNRISE. THUS                
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE 15-20               
MPH MOST AREAS WITH ARCTIC AIR...GUSTS TO 45 MPH THRU GDP PASS.                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN CONSISTING OF A WEST COAST RIDGE AND A              
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE BY               
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN PAC/PAC NW                
WITH RIDGING IN STORE FOR THE PLAINS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE               
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THIS LARGE-SCALE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW              
PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH REGARDS TO A            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO AFFECT OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS                  
FEATURE COULD BRING A SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA...OTHERWISE NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST.              
AS FOR THE DETAILS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF A              
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE                
ROCKIES WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN AND               
WESTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA TO CONTINUE LOW ORDER CHANCE POPS THROUGH               
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MID-LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE WEAK LIFT               
WILL GENERALLY WANE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE THE           
BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH            
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LIFT AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. NEGATING FACTOR             
FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER               
THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MID AND UPPER            
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE BY LATE SATURDAY AND THIS TREND WILL                
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM                 
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE HAVE OPTED TO                  
GENERALLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE AS MODELS TEND TO SCOUR COLD AIR OUT              
TOO QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO             
WHERE SOME SNOW COVER WILL BE LIKELY. SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH                   
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES WILL           
RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND EVENTUALLY SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO              
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE MAY COMBINE WITH A                 
PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON            
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST...BUT IF            
THE TREND OF THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS CONTINUES...WE MAY NEED TO PULL             
OR DELAY RAIN CHANCES.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BIG SPRING TX             13  29  18  48 /  50  10   0   0                      
CARLSBAD NM               14  29  16  49 /  70  30   0   0                      
DRYDEN TX                 20  36  19  51 /  30  20   0   0                      
FORT STOCKTON TX          19  33  23  51 /  50  30   0   0                      
GUADALUPE PASS TX         11  26  18  41 /  60  40   0   0                      
HOBBS NM                  15  31  17  48 /  70  10   0   0                      
MARFA TX                  14  26  11  45 /  50  40   0   0                      
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   15  30  18  47 /  60  10   0   0                      
ODESSA TX                 15  31  18  48 /  60  10   0   0@   RUKWBC        , KK
FFGOHX                                                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                                                        
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL LA                             
243 PM CST THU DEC 23 2004                                                      
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR CWA.....NASHVILLE TN                                   
INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR SPECIFIED DURATIONS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE                  
FLASH FLOODING IN ANY SMALL STREAM WITHIN FORECAST ZONES. LOWER                 
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN OR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.                 
.B SIL 041223 Z DH18/DC0412232043 /DUE/PPHCF/PPTCF/PPQCF                        
:IDENTIFIERS ARE STATE ID, Z FOR ZONE, NWS-MAR ZONE NUMBER.                     
:                                                                               
:...STATE     DURATION                                                          
:IDENT    1HR   3HR   6HR  ZONE NAME                                            
:======= ====  ====  ====  ====================                                 
:                                                                               
:.....TENNESSEE                                                                 
:                                                                               
TNZ075    1.0/  1.4/  1.7 :BEDFORD                                              
TNZ022    1.2/  1.6/  1.9 :BENTON                                               
TNZ077    1.0/  1.3/  1.6 :COFFEE                                               
TNZ066    0.9/  1.2/  1.6 :CUMBERLAND                                           
TNZ055    1.0/  1.4/  1.6 :DECATUR                                              
TNZ095    1.0/  1.3/  1.7 :GILES                                                
TNZ079    1.2/  1.5/  1.8 :GRUNDY                                               
TNZ057    0.8/  1.2/  1.6 :HICKMAN                                              
TNZ023    1.3/  1.6/  2.0 :HOUSTON                                              
TNZ024    1.1/  1.5/  1.8 :HUMPHREYS                                            
TNZ094    1.1/  1.4/  1.7 :LAWRENCE                                             
TNZ058    0.9/  1.3/  1.6 :LEWIS                                                
TNZ061    1.1/  1.4/  1.7 :MARSHALL                                             
TNZ060    1.0/  1.3/  1.6 :MAURY                                                
TNZ056    1.0/  1.3/  1.6 :PERRY                                                
TNZ093    1.0/  1.3/  1.6 :WAYNE                                                
.END                                                                            
$$                                                                              
DUTY FORECASTER:  CALL LMRFC OPERATIONS                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1023 AM EST THU DEC 23 2004                                                     
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NWRN PA WITH A                 
STRONG N-S COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN PA...WV...AND FAR WRN VA. FRONT IS            
MAKING VERY SLOW EWRD PROGRESS...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MERIDIONAL FLOW            
AS THE LOW-MID LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT.           
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN...OTHER THAN THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT...WILL BE WITH THE WINDS. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION             
SHOW VERY STRONG WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE...INCLUDING 60KTS AT             
2 KFT HERE AT KAKQ. CERTAINLY...THE DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY               
(REFER TO KWAL 12Z SOUNDING) IS INHIBITING THE BULK OF THIS MOMENTUM            
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN INITIALLY WILL BE               
THAT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS (DEEPER CONVECTION) WILL BE A LITTLE MORE            
EFFICIENT IN BRINGING DOWN THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. THEN...AFTER                 
3 PM...EXPECT A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS                 
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS THE LOW LEVEL CAP ERODES WITH             
THE ONSET OF CAA. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE A WHILE IN DEEPENING             
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER...AS RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN               
INVERSION REMAINING BTWN 900-800 MB WITH A BACKING VERTICAL WIND                
PROFILE (NW NEAR THE SURFACE AND SW AROUND 850 MB AND ABOVE).                   
THEREFORE...GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP INSTBY AND (THUS) LACK OF ALIGNED            
WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS...DO NOT EXPECT THE STRONGER POST-FRONTAL             
WINDS TO LAST FOR MORE THAN 1-3 HOURS.                                          
CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS AND PER COORDINATION WITH PHI...WILL BE                 
HOISTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER ERN SHORE THIS AFTN...AS                 
GIVEN THE ONSHORE COMPONENT (LESS FRICTIONAL DIMINISHMENT) THIS                 
REGION IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH               
S/SSW WINDS. ELSEWHERE...FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE            
WINDY CONDITIONS (20-30 MPH) W/O AN ADVISORY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH 7 PM...MDZ021>025.                                 
NC...SCA CSTL WTRS AND CURRITUCK SND.                                           
VA...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SRN CHES BAY.                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ630>632-650-652-654-656-             
658-633 THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
HURLEY                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
-------------------------------------------------------------------             
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...MILD AGAIN TDY AS STRNG              
SOUTHERLY WNDS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRNT...HELPS BOOST TEMPS INTO THE             
UPR 50S TO MID 60S DESPITE CLDS/PCPN. LO PRES OVR ERN KY ERLY THIS              
MRNG...WILL MOVE NNE TDY INTO TNGT PULLING THE COLD FRNT ACRS REGION            
WITH SHRAS/POSSIBLE TSRAS.  LATE THIS MRNG THRU THIS                            
AFTN...SHRAS/TSRAS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WNDS BUT SHUD BE BELOW SVR LVLS            
(58 MPH). FRNT PUSHES WELL OFFSHR LATER TNGT...WITH N WNDS USHERING             
VRY DRY AIR INTO FA THRU SAT AS HI PRES BLDS TWD/INTO REGION.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HI PRES BLDS                          
OVR FA ON SAT...PROVIDING LOTS OF SUNSHINE BUT COLD MAX                         
TEMPS RANGING THRU THE 30S.  HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVR THE                        
AREA...THEN SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLC CST FOR SUN THRU WED.                        
STILL VRY CHILLY ON SUN...BUT TEMPS THEN REBOUND BACK TO                        
ARND 60/LWR 60S BY WED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS BECOMING MVFR TO OCNL IFR DUE TO                          
PCPN TDY INTO THIS EVENG.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA CONDS EXPECTED THIS AFTN THRU FRI...AS                            
STRNG S WNDS IN ADVANCE OF FRNT SHIFT TO N AND REMAIN                           
STRNG DUE TO CAA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...32                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...25                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
358 AM CST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                        
OF MAIN CONCERN THIS EARLY MORNING ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND              
MINIMUMS TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC80 MODEL IS THE PREFERRED MODEL AND             
IT STILL SHOWS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MY CW AREA                 
TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOPS REVEAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN            
CIRRUS AND A FEW ALTO-CUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THE                    
COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND SOME WIND WILL                 
YIELD LOW WIND CHILLS SO WILL ALLOW THE ON-GOING WIND CHILL ADVISORY            
TO CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM THIS FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD               
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS              
THE AREA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR              
NOW IN PLACE. THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER AND PATCHY ICE WILL CONTINUE              
TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO               
CHRISTMAS.                                                                      
(38)                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
RATHER STRONG UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART                
OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH AFFECTING THIS AREA IN THE                    
SHORT TERM MOVES TO THE EAST AND WARMER AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA.                
NEW GFS KEEPS A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.                
ALSO STRONG UPPER LOW STAYS OFF THE WEST COAST THROUGH MUCH OF                  
THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT WAVE FINALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ABOUT               
THURSDAY. THIS SOULTION APPEARS TO BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND              
RESULTED IN SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SURFACE PATTERN FAVORS MORE               
OF A SOUTHEAST WIND TO MOST AREAS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS                 
IN THE NORTHWEST. ALSO SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY            
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE SET UP                 
TO KEEP THE GULF CLOSED AND LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR STRATUS. THIS                 
MAY BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND SHOWED INCREASING CLOUDS THEN.                  
REALLY LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL                      
THURSDAY BUT LEFT SMALL POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT. AIR WILL STILL BE RATHER STABLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY             
SO ONLY WENT WITH RAIN FOR NOW. AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE COMES OUT               
THURSDAY AND A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...INSTABILITY            
WILL LIKELY INCREASE...SO PUT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR                  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                             
(29)                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
LITTLE ROCK AR    30  12  36  24 /   0   0   0   0                              
HARRISON AR       24  14  35  24 /   0   0   0   0                              
HOT SPRINGS AR    30  13  38  24 /   0   0   0   0                              
PINE BLUFF AR     30  14  37  24 /   0   0   0   0                              
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  22  13  33  22 /   0   0   0   0                              
MONTICELLO AR     30  15  38  24 /   0   0   0   0                              
SEARCY AR         26  10  33  21 /   0   0   0   0                              
MOUNT IDA AR      29  10  39  23 /   0   0   0   0                              
RUSSELLVILLE AR   28   9  37  21 /   0   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 800 AM             
CST TODAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007... ARZ012>016...ARZ021>024...ARZ031.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
38/29                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OBVIOUS CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS CURRENT LES AND HEADLINES. THE              
HEADLINE FOR ALGER COUNTY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM...AND WILL                  
PROBABLY CANCEL IT AT THAT TIME. PESKY MESO-VORTEX OVER EASTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE AND LES               
OVER FAR EASTERN ALGER COUNTY AND NORTHWEST LUCE COUNTY...BUT EXPECT            
THE MESO-VORTEX TO SLOWLY LOST SOME OF ITS STRUCTURE THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY AS THE ADJACENT LAND MASSES WARM SOME AND THE LAND BREEZES                  
RELAX. THE 12Z ETA AND LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA BOTH KEEP SNOW SHOWER              
ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SUGGEST             
A WEAKENING TREND. AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES WERE                   
REPORTED FROM MUNISING. FEEL ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL             
BE MINIMAL OVER MOST OF ALGER COUNTY...WITH 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES               
POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND MARAIS DUE TO THE BANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF              
THE MESO-VORTEX. WILL MENTION THESE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST               
UPDATE...BUT ALLOW THE HEADLINE TO BE CANCELLED.                                
OVER THE KEWEENAW...HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT KCMX FOR MUCH OF            
THE MORNING WITH A FAVORABLE WEST WIND BRINGING SNOW TO NORTHERN                
HOUGHTON COUNTY. SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW HAS BEEN                   
LIMITED DUE TO THE PERSISTING NORTHWEST WIND IN THAT AREA...BUT                 
WOULD EXPECT THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO SHIFT SLOWLY INTO THAT AREA                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE                   
SOUTHWESTERLY. THINGS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA ARE CURRENTLY BEING                
ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SWINGING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. INVERSION               
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DESCEND...WITH ATTENDANT DRYING...LATER THIS            
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FLOW AND                 
THERMODYNAMICS PROGGED OVER THE KEWEENAW BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL            
HAVE TO BE EVALUATED FURTHER...SINCE IT MAY ALLOW FOR THE KEWEENAW              
HEADLINE TO BE SHORTENED.                                                       
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA ARE SLOW TO REBOUND THIS MORNING...AND             
HAVE TWEAKED BACK FORECAST HIGHS A BIT TO LINE UP BETTER WITH                   
CURRENT TRENDS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ001-003.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS AND WIND CHILLS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH             
A RDG FROM THE EPAC INTO THE PAC NW AND A LONG WAVE TROF AXIS FROM              
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN LAKES TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM             
SHRTWV OR SHEAR AXIS EXTENDED FROM NW ONTARIO TO W LK SUPERIOR. AT              
THE SFC...ARCTIC HIGH PRES STRETCHED FROM NRN MANITOBA TOWARD THE               
SRN PLAINS WHILE A LAKES INDUCED TROF EXTENDED FROM NRN LK MI NW TO             
S AND W LK SUPERIOR. RADAR INDICATED CONVERGENT BAND OF SHSN INTO E             
ALGER COUNTY.                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE 850 TO 700 MB TEMPS (-24C TO -34C)                    
PRODUCED VERY STRONG INSTABILITY...SNOW GROWTH IN SUCH AN ARCTIC                
AIRMASS WOULD BE NORMALLY BE UNFAVORABLE. HOWEVER...THERMAL RDGING              
MOISTURE/HEAT FLUX IN DOMINANT/CONVERGENT BANDS VCNTY TROF...SHOULD             
STILL LEAD TO DECENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. OVER THE WEST...ETA FCST 950             
CONV KEEPS FOCUS VCNTY KCMX THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH TO               
NEAR KP59 THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES TO AT LEAST              
AN INCH/HOUR TODAY. SHIFTING POSITION OF SNOW BAND SHOULD LIMIT                 
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 3-7 INCH RANGE. ETA LOW LVL WINDS                
ALSO SUGGEST E LAKE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD.             
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON EVOLUTION OF MESO-LOW REMAINS TO JUSTIFY                  
CONTINUED SCT/NMRS SHSN NEAR THE SHORE INTO THIS EVENING EVEN IF ETA            
SUGGESTS LES WILL MOVE OFF SHORE. MIXING IN AREAS WITH WINDS AOA 10             
MPH HAS KEPT TEMPS UP WHILE COLDEST READINGS WERE GENERALLY IN                  
LOCATIONS WITH WINDS BLO 10 MPH. SO...EVEN WITH CURRENT WIND CHILLS             
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW RANGE...PREVAILING CONDITIONS ABV ADVY             
CRITERIA (25 BELOW...WINDS AOA 10 MPH) EXPECTED AS TEMPS SLOWLY                 
REBOUND THIS MORNING. EVEN THOUGH ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS OVER UPR               
MICHIGAN...ENOUGH WAA CLOUDS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.                     
NEVERTHELESS...INLAND READINGS FCST INTO THE -12F TO -17F RANGE WITH            
TEMPS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.                                          
SATURDAY...WHILE THE ETA SHOWS BEST SATURATION WITH 280K-290K                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT SLIDING SOUTH OF UPR MI AND MOISTURE IS SCANT...-SN             
CHANCE RETAINED AS WEAK TO MODERATE QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV              
LOBE MOVING BRUSHES UPR MI.                                                     
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ETA/GFS/UKMET BLEND SUGGESTS THAT AS THE                   
SFC TROF PIVOTS THROUGH S OF THE AREA AND NRN ONTARIO HIGH BUILDS               
SOUTHWARD...CYCLONIC NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACRS LK SUPERIOR WITH               
FOCUS OF BEST LOW LVL CONV INTO N CNTRL UPR MI. IF MORE FAVORABLE               
ETA SCENARIO WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE NRLY WINDS DEVELOPS...ADVY LEVEL              
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INVERSION HGTS STARTING                
NEAR 7K-8K FT. EXPECT THE ETA MAY HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON LOW LVL                 
WINDS WITH ITS DEPICTION OF MORE PRONOUNCED GREAT LAKE AGGREGATE                
TROFFING.                                                                       
MON INTO TUE...GOING FCST OF -SN CHANCES STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH              
DEVELOPING STRONG WAA PATTERN. MDLS TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD KEEPING               
DEEP COLD AIR MORE ENTRENCHED WITH THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTING                  
ALL SNOW DURING PERIOD OF MOST FAVORABLE LIFT.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ001-003.               
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST TODAY MIZ006.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1030 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO UPDATE NEEDED.                                                               
150KT JET ALOFT AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE            
CIRRUS STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE CWA TODAY. THE LOWER STRATUS LAYER               
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA EAST ASSOCIATED WITH 850 TROUGH AND              
CONVERGENCE AREA. THE RUC AND MESOETA SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING VERY             
LITTLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...NOT SHIFTING EAST UNTIL AFTER             
00Z. LOWER CLOUD BASE WILL HAVE GREATER IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES                  
ACROSS THE EAST... THUS EXPECT MINIMAL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECENT WIND GUSTS (~17KTS) WILL ADD             
EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR. FORECAST HIGHS OF 40 TO 43 LOOK ON TRACK.               
SEE NO REASON TO UPDATE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                
OVERALL...                                                                      
ALOFT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND            
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT.            
BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING UP FROM SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE                   
SOUTHERN JET AND CUTOFF FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE              
WAVE SLIDING EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS TO RESULT IN                
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MOST             
OF THIS STAY SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE BASICALLY A                     
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. STRONG CAA CONVECTION TODAY            
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SATURDAY NIGHT COLDEST DURING THIS                
PERIOD. HIGHS TODAY WILL AVERAGE 15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN YESTERDAY            
AS HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. HIGH              
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD RETARD MAXES A BIT TODAY...THUS WILL TWEAK DOWN A            
FEW DEGREES. SOME MORNING CLOUDS SATURDAY...THEN CLEAR AND COLD FOR             
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY               
BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
THE NEW WEEK TO START WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE                 
CENTRAL CONUS. RIDGE FLATTENS TOWARD MID WEEK RESULTING IN NEARLY               
ZONAL FLOW AS S/W EAST ALONG NORTHERN TIER CONUS. ALL IN ALL...A DRY            
WEEK ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES..RETURNING                  
CLOSER SEASONAL NORMS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AS OF 06Z/24 DEC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD               
SINCE SCOURED OUT... LEAVING BROKEN CIRRUS ABOVE. SURFACE WINDS WERE            
GUSTY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT... BUT SINCE SUBSIDED TO LESS THAN 10               
KNTS... DUE IN PART TO WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD IN THE            
LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD            
BECOME TIGHTER AFTER 09Z... BUT BY THAT TIME WE MAY BE DECOUPLED                
FROM WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 11-12               
KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS ALL DAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...BL                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1046 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CAE 88D PICKING UP SOME PRETTY GOOD ECHOES ENTERING THE SOUTHERN                
PART OF THE CAE CWA. 35-45 DBZ RETURNS FROM BURKE COUNTY,GA WAS                 
CONFIRMED BY THE BURKE CO SHERIFF OFFICE AS SLEET. MODELS SHOW                  
SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER IN THE LOW LEVELS 2-3 THOUSAND FEET BUT A                
DRY LAYER FROM 850MB-700MB ABOUT 5-10 THOUSAND FEET. RUC/MESOETA                
TIME SECTIONS FROM SOUTHERN PART OF CWA INCLUDING BARNWELL AND                  
ORANGEBURG COS INDICATE SOME MOISTENING UP OF DRY LAYER THIS                    
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE SOUTHERN ZONES TO GO 30 PERCENT CHANCE                   
LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET FROM BURKE CO, GA NORTHEAST THROUGH CLARENDON              
CO. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SLEET CENTRAL MIDLANDS             
FROM AUGUSTA,GA TO COLUMBIA TO SUMTER. WILL LOWER HIGHS TO THE MID              
TO UPPER 30S. NO CHANGE TO TONIGHT FORECAST SINCE MODELS JUST HAVE              
A QUICK SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS GONE BY SUNSET.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...(FRI-SUN)...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD IN           
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE TO OUR                   
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH ON THE LOW TRACK             
AND WE WOULD HAVE A VERY DIFFERENT SITUATION...HOWEVER THE CIRRUS               
DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY              
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS MADE FOR EACH            
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP A BIT SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSE               
BY, HAVE BUMPED UP MINS BIT SAT PM DUE TO WINDS. THINGS CLEAR OUT               
SUN WITH MODERATING TEMPS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MON-FRI)...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH UPPER RIDGE                    
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SFC HIGH WILL NOSE DOWN THE EAST COAST                
AND KEEP US DRY FOR THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPS APPROACHING NEAR             
NORMAL BY MID WEEK AND ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT NORTHEAST             
WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TODAY WITH WINDS            
DIMINISHING TO NEAR 5 KNOTS AROUND SUNSET. THERE MAY BE SOME COLD               
ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS BUT IT/S PROBABLY TOO DRY FOR A MVFR                    
CEILING. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE ASSOCIATED            
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLUMBIA     44  30  48  27 /   0   0   0  10                                   
AUGUSTA      43  28  49  28 /   0   0   0  10                                   
SUMTER       44  29  48  27 /   0   0   0  10                                   
ORANGEBURG   44  30  48  28 /   0   0   0  10                                   
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1045 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                     
.UPDATE SHORT TERM...WILL GO AHEAD AND MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIX             
PCPN ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTN. A COUPLE OF REPORTS HAVE ALREADY COME IN             
MENTIONING PCPN IN SC COUNTIES. STILL NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                
PREVIOUS DISCURRION                                                             
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...LOOKING AT SATELLITE...RADARS             
OVER THE SE AND SFC OBS...SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS HITTING THE GROUND               
THIS MORNING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND EVEN INTO SW GA.                   
MOISTURE PRESENTLY LIMITED WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND MAY            
DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER SC COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE                 
ADVECTION INTO SW GA THIS MORNING...EXPECT ENUF MOISTURE TO MOVE                
INTO GA PTN OF CWA TO SEE PCPN THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO SC                   
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF PCPN SO WILL START IT             
OUT AS RAIN PSBLY MIXED WITH SLEET WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...PINEVILLE OBS HAVE COME IN AT 10-15 KT THE PAST COUPLE            
OF HRS. BEST PRES GRAD LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS INLAND SO WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR DECRG SPEEDS BUT NOT                 
QUITE AS MUCH AS CURRENT FCST HAS. WILL DECRS WINDS TO 15 KT TDA                
THEN BLEND IT BETTER FOR TNGT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS RATHER STUBBORN TO SETTLE DOWN TDA AS PER BUOYS AND             
PILOT BOAT REPORTS. BUOYS...SHORELINE OBS...AND CHS PILOT BOAT ALL              
REPORTING 15-20 KT WIND SPEEDS. CULPRIT IS A FAIRLY TIGHT SFC PRES              
GRAD OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND                    
BUILDING HIGH INLAND. BOTH RUC AND M-ETA SHOW PRES GRAD TO REMAIN               
OVER THE WATERS THRU THE DAY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING OFF AS PREV                
EXPECTED. WILL ADJUST SPEEDS TDA TO MAINTAIN UPPER RANGES OF WIND               
SPEEDS THRU THIS AFTN AND ALSO SLIGHTLY INCRS WINDS TNGT AS SPEEDS              
DO NOT LOOK TO DROP OFF MUCH TNGT...PARTICULARLY DURG AN ANTICIPATED            
OVRNGT SURGE. WAVES LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.                   
.                                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KCHS THRU AT LEAST                
MIDDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO               
CIGS AS LOW AS 1500FT UNDER PREVAILING HIGH BKN SKIES. VIS SAT PIX              
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARND KSAV...SO SCT/BKN HIGH CIGS LOOK              
TO SUFFICE. MAY NEED TO AMD FOR INCRD WIND SPEEDS THIS MRNG...ESP               
KCHS...AS BOTH SITES SHOWING WIND SPEEDS A BIT ABV GOING VALUES. LWR            
LVLS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO INCLUDE PRECIP SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY TAFS.            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
951 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...LOOKING AT SATELLITE...RADARS             
OVER THE SE AND SFC OBS...SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN IS HITTING THE GROUND               
THIS MORNING ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AND EVEN INTO SW GA.                   
MOISTURE PRESENTLY LIMITED WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND MAY            
DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER SC COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE                 
ADVECTION INTO SW GA THIS MORNING...EXPECT ENUF MOISTURE TO MOVE                
INTO GA PTN OF CWA TO SEE PCPN THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO SC                   
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF PCPN SO WILL START IT             
OUT AS RAIN PSBLY MIXED WITH SLEET WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.              
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...PINEVILLE OBS HAVE COME IN AT 10-15 KT THE PAST COUPLE            
OF HRS. BEST PRES GRAD LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRES                 
BUILDS INLAND SO WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR DECRG SPEEDS BUT NOT                 
QUITE AS MUCH AS CURRENT FCST HAS. WILL DECRS WINDS TO 15 KT TDA                
THEN BLEND IT BETTER FOR TNGT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS RATHER STUBBORN TO SETTLE DOWN TDA AS PER BUOYS AND             
PILOT BOAT REPORTS. BUOYS...SHORELINE OBS...AND CHS PILOT BOAT ALL              
REPORTING 15-20 KT WIND SPEEDS. CULPRIT IS A FAIRLY TIGHT SFC PRES              
GRAD OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN STALLED FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND                    
BUILDING HIGH INLAND. BOTH RUC AND M-ETA SHOW PRES GRAD TO REMAIN               
OVER THE WATERS THRU THE DAY WITH WINDS NOT DROPPING OFF AS PREV                
EXPECTED. WILL ADJUST SPEEDS TDA TO MAINTAIN UPPER RANGES OF WIND               
SPEEDS THRU THIS AFTN AND ALSO SLIGHTLY INCRS WINDS TNGT AS SPEEDS              
DO NOT LOOK TO DROP OFF MUCH TNGT...PARTICULARLY DURG AN ANTICIPATED            
OVRNGT SURGE. WAVES LOOK ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.                   
.                                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE KCHS THRU AT LEAST                
MIDDAY AS LLVL MOISTURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NE. WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO               
CIGS AS LOW AS 1500FT UNDER PREVAILING HIGH BKN SKIES. VIS SAT PIX              
SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARND KSAV...SO SCT/BKN HIGH CIGS LOOK              
TO SUFFICE. MAY NEED TO AMD FOR INCRD WIND SPEEDS THIS MRNG...ESP               
KCHS...AS BOTH SITES SHOWING WIND SPEEDS A BIT ABV GOING VALUES. LWR            
LVLS STILL LOOK TOO DRY TO INCLUDE PRECIP SO WILL MAINTAIN DRY TAFS.            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1041 AM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                     
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH (IF ANY) CHANGE TO THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS.              
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN...MAINLY AT LOW LEVELS              
AT THIS POINT HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND                  
BACKING WIND PROFILE ABOVE 850 MB (FROM 12Z KWAL SOUNDING).                     
MEANWHILE...EXTENSIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTENING CONTINUES ALOFT             
PER THE STLT LOOPS...WITH THE MOISTURE CONNECTION (OVERRUNNING THE              
BROAD ARCTIC AIRMASS) EXTENDING THROUGH MEXICO AND SOUTH OF BAJA.               
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY AOA 12 KFT N OF THE VA/NC BORDER...THOUGH SOME             
LOWER CEILINGS (AOB 6 KFT) WERE NOTED ACROSS SERN VA/NERN NC. THINK             
THE INCREASING OVER-WATER INSTBY DOWNWIND FROM CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC            
COASTAL WATERS IS AT LEAST IN SOME WAY CONTRIBUTING TO THE                      
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS.                                              
WILL LIKELY WORK A MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY FORECAST FOR THE SRN                    
ZONES...GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION (N AND            
W OF SERN VA)...WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY                  
PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE DRY NORTHERLY             
ISALLOBARIC FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. *PERHAPS* A STRAY SPRINKLE OR FLURRY            
OVER NERN NC...THOUGH EVEN IN THIS REGION RUC MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A             
DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR (BTWN 850-650 MB)...GREATER THAN 5 KFT IN                 
DEPTH AND AS SUCH WOULD PRECLUDE ICE SEEDING INTO THE LOWER MOIST               
LAYER.                                                                          
MARINE FORECAST...MINIMAL CHANGES MADE AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES                
CONTINUE AREAWIDE.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.                             
&&                                                                              
HURLEY                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
.SYNOPSIS/OVERVIEW...                                                           
AFTER THE WELL ABV NORM TEMPS OF THE PAST 2 DAYS...BIG CHANGES ON               
THE WAY AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE MID ATLC REGION                  
TODAY. SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVR EASTERN STATES KEEPS PCPN CHCS AT A                
MINIMUM THRU WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS REBOUND TO                 
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN BACK ABV NORM BY MIDWEEK               
AS UPR RDGG GRADUALLY RETURNS TO MID ATLC REGION.                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                   
SHALLOW COLD DOME WILL BUILD OVR REGION TODAY. ONLY A SMALL RISE IN             
TEMPS EXPECTED (5-10 DEGS) AS READINGS START OUT MOSTLY IN THE 30S              
(EXCEPT L40S FAR SE). QUITE BRISK ESP CSTL AREAS THIS MORN THEN WIND            
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AS STRONG LOW LVL CAA SURGE SUBSIDES THIS AFTN.            
ONLY LIMITED SUN EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL WITH LAYERED CLOUDS...LOW               
CLOUDS STUCK UNDER INVERSION MNLY OVR EASTERN AREAS AND MID/HIGH                
CLOUDS WELL IN ADV OF SOUTHERN STREAM SYS.                                      
SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ON OLD FRONT OVR GULF STREAM TNGT BUT SHUD RMN FAR            
ENUF OFFSHORE TO KEEP ANY ASSOCD PCPN SE OF FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS               
LIKELY LINGER THRU MUCH OF OVRNGT ESP OVR SE AREAS BEFORE BROAD UPR             
TROF PUSHES THRU SAT MORN. QUITE COLD TNGT ESP INLAND AS 8H TEMPS               
CONT TO DROP BUT LINGERING CLOUDS AND SFC MIXING PREVENT FULL TEMP              
DROPOFF POTENTIAL.                                                              
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SYS MOVES ACRS GULF COAST SAT THEN OFF                   
FLA/GA COAST SAT NIGHT. MID/UPR CONVERGENCE OVR MID ATLC REGION                 
SHUD SUPRESS SYS FAR ENUF SOUTH TO HAVE LTL EFFECT ON FORECAST AREA.            
CONT COLD THO WITH LOW LVL THICKNESS INDICATING HIGHS ONLY IN THE               
30S FOR MOST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL ALSO SEE TIGHTENING PGRAD/INCRSG            
WINDS AGN ALONG COAST WITH SYS OFF SE COAST AND STRONG HIGH TO                  
NORTH.                                                                          
COLD AGAIN SAT NIGHT WITH MANY LOWS IN THE TEENS INLAND/20S CST.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
SLOW WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AS UPR RDG GRADUALLY BUILDS OVR                
EASTERN STATES. NORTHERN STREAM SYS RIDES THRU NRN MID ATLC/NE                  
STATES TUE NIGHT BUT LENDS LTL UPR SUPPORT OR DEEP MOISTURE FOR                 
ANY PCPN OVR CNTRL MID ATLC REGION. SHUD FINALLY SEE BETTER RETURN              
FLOW SET UP BY MIDWEEK AND A RETURN TO ABV NORM TEMPS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN TODAY BUT EXPECT CIGS ABV VFR                
CRITERIA NEXT 24 HOURS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADV ALL AREAS TODAY. PGRAD WILL RMN STRONG                
BTWN SE COASTL SYS AND STRONG HIGH TO NORTH THRU MUCH OF WEEKEND.               
LONG FETCH SHUD KEEP SEAS UP AS WELL.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...CULLEN                                                   
AVIATION/MARINE...BROWN                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
316 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR            
TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN              
ONTARIO EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND                   
CONUS. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A CLOSED LOW                
SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN               
MEXICO. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE                 
TROUGH ARE OVER EASTERN U.P. AND OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE                
ANALYSIS INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY              
STRETCHING NORTH THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO.            
AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO            
THE DAKOTAS. REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONT REMAINS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN               
CAUSING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE LAKE. 850MB TEMPERATURE ARE            
AROUND -21C ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT LAPSE RATE               
AND GENERATE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                
THE ONTARIO MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE SOUTHEAST A FEW MILES OVERNIGHT.            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SURFACE LOW               
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL SLIDE INTO THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR.            
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS IS CAUSING THE WINDS              
TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST. THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL             
WASH OUT AND THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS                 
WELL. GFS/ETA BOTH SHOW THE CONVERGENCE REMAINING OVER EASTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME ANTI-CYCLONIC OVER                 
THE CENTRAL U.P. TONIGHT. 950MB INDICATE DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO               
THE CENTRAL U.P. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...WIND BACKING WEST AND                 
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE AREA...IT LOOKS SAFE TO KEEP THE LES GOING               
THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST               
CWA...BUT DIMINISHING IT BY MIDNIGHT.                                           
THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO JAMES BAY             
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ON ITS FLANK AND SWEEP              
INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE DAKOTA SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT                  
DEEPER IN TO THE PLAINS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE              
U.P. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BLANKET NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL                  
QUEBEC. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LOWER TO 19C              
AND 925MB RH WILL REMAIN AROUND 80 PERCENT. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH               
ENDING ANY LES OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. HOWEVER...WITH A SOUTHERLY                
COMPONENT...SURFACE-850MB DELTA-T'S OVER 20C+ MODELS SHOWING LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA. CONDITIONS LOOK                      
FAVORABLE FOR LES ALONG THE NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. CYCLONIC FLOW            
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ALSO SUPPORTS SOME CONVERGENCE OF EASTERN LAKE             
SUPERIOR. THUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL KICK BACK IN. THIS TIME WITH               
SNOWFALL OVER THE LES PRONE AREAS WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW.                        
THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO ONTARIO AND              
MINNESOTA CAUSING THE WINDS TO BECOME ANTI-CYCLONIC LATE SUNDAY                 
MORNING...DEVELOPING STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. A LITTLE DRIER            
AND COLDER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LAKE. DELTA-T'S             
STILL AROUND 24C WILL KEEP BANDS OF THE LES GOING FOR MUCH OF THE               
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WITH DIVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR...              
SNOWFALL WILL BECOME LIMITED.                                                   
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE             
RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. DELTA-T'S WILL REMAIN AROUND 20C.             
THE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTH AND STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA WILL              
END LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INSTABILITY OF THE                    
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA. BOTH ETA/GFS SHOWING MEAN                      
SURFACE-500MB BETWEEN 75 AND 95 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD            
BE ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE SOME SYSTEM TYPE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE               
QUESTION IS IF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE STABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE              
PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING. GFS SUGGEST KEEP PRECIPITATION IN                 
WHILE ETA CONSIDER IT TO DRY. NCEP FAVOR THE ETA SOLUTION. PLAN TO              
KEEP A CHANCE GOING.                                                            
ETA/GFS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON             
MONDAY. GFS SHOWING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER NORTHEAST LAKE              
SUPERIOR. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. DELTA-T'S STILL             
AROUND 16C. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND             
THE RIDGE. ETA BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHORTWAVE INTO THE             
FORECAST AREA LATE ON MONDAY...WHEREAS GFS KEEP THIS TO THE                     
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DGEX MODEL SUGGEST KEEPING IT               
IN. SINCE THE SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST ALREADY WILL NOT TAKE IT OUT              
SINCE I LACK ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN LATEST ETA.                                   
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA AND THE NORTH PLAINS            
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES OVER THE U.P. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                
INTO THE MINNESOTA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                   
GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD            
FRONT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS THEY SWINGS THROUGH THE                    
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL                
SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE               
MID ATLANTIC STATES. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                
FORECAST AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND THE                 
FRONT WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL              
BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE SURFACE LOW MOVES             
INTO MINNESOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON            
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE SOME               
PRECIPITATION. GFS INDICATE THAT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE                 
AROUND ZERO OVER THE AREA. THINK GFS IS WARMING THE AIR TOO MUCH SO             
WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE OF EACH. GFS EXTENDED MOS LOOKING FOR                   
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING MIZ001-003.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
253 PM EST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO                 
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. CAN NOT                
IGNORE POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME...APPEARS                
TO BE MINOR EVENT.                                                              
WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN           
CANADA NOW AMPLIFYING...WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER LOW CUT OFF IN NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING                
SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN            
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS GULF COASTAL STATES TO CAROLINAS. WEAK SHORT              
WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...WEAK SURFACE LOW                  
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE              
OBS INDICATE MOISTURE ABOVE 15000 FT...AND LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE           
IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. WITH SHORT               
WAVES AND RESULTING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SCT LIGHT PRECIP HAS               
BEEN FALLING ACROSS EASTERN PORTION OF MIDLANDS...WITH RAIN MIXING              
WITH SLEET...MODERATE SLEET REPORTED IN BAMBERG EARLIER. SURFACE                
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO NO PROBLEMS. RADAR INDICATING PRECIP MOVING             
EAST OF REGION. ETA BUFKIT T-SECTIONS SHOW A RETURN OF MOISTURE LATER           
THIS EVENING...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH MID LEVELS BECOMING MORE           
MOIST...OMEGA NOTED...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...WILL KEEP            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS THIS EVENING WITH A MIX OF           
LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET...IN THE CAE AREA MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH              
TEMPERATURE PROFILE ISOTHERMAL...BUT LESS MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO              
MID LEVELS. LOOKS LIKE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES INTO AREA SATURDAY...BUT            
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.            
UPPER LOW IN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG GULF COAST AND               
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW 500MB VORT ADVECTION                
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/COASTAL SOUTH                     
CAROLINA. SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA THEN OFF               
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY.UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS GOOD            
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING IN THE CAE              
AREA...DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE OGB AREA. GFS ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB               
WARM AIR ADVECTION STRONGER THAN ETA...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS FOCUS               
ADVECTION MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN              
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY           
SET UP COLD AIR DAMMING...SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE COOLER...THAN CURRENT            
THINKING. PLAN ON CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIP               
EAST OF MIDLANDS. PARTIAL THICKNESS SCHEMES INDICATES A WINTRY PRECIP           
MIX...WITH RAIN AND SLEET EAST...AND RAIN AND SNOW WEST AND NORTH IN            
COOLER AIR. INTERESTING THAT GFS HINTS AT FREEZING RAIN PROBLEM WITH            
SURFACE BELOW 0C. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST             
AWAY FROM CAROLINA COAST...GFS A LITTLE SLOWER DRYING OUT MID LEVELS            
THAN ETA.                                                                       
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS PERIOD TRICKY...EXPECT CLOUDS TO HOLD                 
TEMPS UP TONIGHT...COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY...THINK LOW 50S TOO                  
OPTIMISTIC...TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON COLD AIR DAMMING...              
WENT WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE SUNDAY WITH CLOUDINESS AND SOME                   
SCATTERED PRECIP...CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS IN THE LOW 40S AT CAE.                  
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE COLD IN THE 20S WITH CLEARING SKIES.               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE                     
SOUTHEAST SLOWLY BUILDING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. NO              
POPS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS 2-3 THOUSAND FEET OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDING              
INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL NEAR 02Z. CAE 88D IS PICKING UP LIGHT              
PRECIP BETWEEN AGS AND OGB WITH DBZ 25-35. PORBABLY SOME LIGHT                  
SLEET. MUCH OF THE PRECIP IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS DRY LAYER               
850MB-700MB OR 5-10 THOUSAND FEET COVERS THE AREA. LOWER LAYER IS               
ABOUT 1 THOUSAND FEET DEEP. RUC/MESOETA TIME SECTIONS ARE BRINGING A            
QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE IN DRY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT DOESN'T               
LAST VERY LONG. SOME SLEET MAY REACH THE GROUND BUT EXPECT NO                   
WEATHER PROBLEMS FROM THE PRECIP. LOW LAYERS DRY OUT AFTER 02Z WITH             
JUST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. NO FOG EXPECT CHRISTMAS MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLUMBIA     32  46  30  43 /  10  10  30  30                                   
AUGUSTA      30  46  31  44 /  10  10  40  40                                   
SUMTER       31  46  30  42 /  10  10  30  30                                   
ORANGEBURG   32  46  31  43 /  20  10  40  40                                   
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AWP...SHORT TERM/LONG TERM                                                      
TTH...AVIATION                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
225 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A 500 MB PATTERN THAT IS                     
PROGRESSING.  THIS IS MOVING THE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT THE ARCTIC             
AIR INTO THE REGION OFF TO THE EAST.  AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF               
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  SOUTHWESTERLY            
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WAS LOCATION OVER THE PLAINS AND            
WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS HAS                
CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THAT                  
REGION...WARMING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  LOW PRESSURE WAS             
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                                             
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY                                   
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...WILL THE NEXT SYSTEM PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING            
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD? AND...TEMPERATURES.                 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  BY                  
SATURDAY EVENING...IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  SOME WEAK                  
FORCING REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT AS IT NEARS THE                  
FORECAST AREA.  THE ETA/GFS/RUC RUNS ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING AND                
THE FORCING SIGNALS.                                                            
THESE FORCING SIGNALS ARE NET ADIABATIC ASCENT ON THE 280K SURFACE              
AND SOME WEAK 700-500 MB QG CONVERGENCE.  THESE MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE                  
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES UPSTREAM.  THEREFORE...WEAK FORCING WILL              
LIKELY NOT OVERCOME THE DRY AIR UNLESS IT IS PROLONGED.                         
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SNOW.                                     
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL              
CONTINUE TEMPERATURE RISES.  HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG               
ENOUGH TO MITIGATE DECOUPLING.  THEREFORE...WILL GO FOR A LOW AROUND            
3Z.                                                                             
KRC                                                                             
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. 12Z 24DEC04 GFS AND ETA IN FAIRLY                
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DIFFERENCES ARISE IN QPF                     
PRODUCTION GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON MONDAY.              
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...A BLEND APPROACH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SMALL               
CHANCE WORDING.                                                                 
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY                         
EVENING...TAKING PRECIPITATION WITH IT. PARTIAL CLEARING LATE WITH              
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE              
DIGITS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                                                 
SUNDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THIS IS              
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND WARM AIR                         
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.                    
INCREASED ISENTROPIC LIFT (280K SURFACE) ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD              
TO FURTHER SATURATION AND A SMALL CHANCE OF -SN ACROSS NORTHWEST                
HALF OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. MAIN LIFT/FORCING SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN      
WI ON MONDAY WITH FURTHER WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE A              
SMALL CHANCE OF -SN...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROCHESTER TO BLACK            
RIVER FALLS.                                                                    
DAS                                                                             
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                        
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OFF THE             
WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE RIDGING OVER             
THE CENTRAL CONUS FOR A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH           
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RETURN FLOW ON                
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF ROCKIES LOW WILL START                   
PULLING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF            
MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A               
MENTION OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY. NEXT            
MAJOR WEATHER-MAKER WILL BE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES             
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WITH MORE                
NORTHWARD TRACK OF THIS LOW...BUMPED TEMPERATURE UP A TAD. RIGHT                
NOW...IT APPEARS ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL GET MIXED INTO THE SYSTEM OVER            
OUR AREA FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.IA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DAS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi