FXUS61 KRLX 060209
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV  
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

******************************************************************* 
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

...OVERNIGHT PERIOD...

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE TORNADO WATCH.  CONVECTION THIS 
EVENING IS CONCENTRATED IN A NARROW BAND FROM NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO 
EAST CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS ONGOING IN THE 
WEST AND ARE BEING HANDLED BY WARNINGS.  DO NOT EXPECT FLASH FLOOD 
WARNINGS TO EXTEND MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN WHERE THEY ARE THIS 
EVENING.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS JET STREAK HELPING FUEL THESE STORMS WILL BE 
PASSING THROUGH AREA.  BUT WITH ALL THE JUICE AND POTENTIAL 
INSTABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT 
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH TO SLIGHT 
CHANCE...AND FOR THE MOST PART ENDED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH 
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. 

.END/JMV

******************************************************************* 
238 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TNGT AND TUES...

LIKE MOST SUMMER TIME FCST POPS WL BE BASED OFF LATEST RDR TRENDS.  
LINE OF TRW/RW MVNG THRU CNTRL CWA SHUD BE LAST FOR MOST.  WORRIED 
TSTMS IN WW253 MAY CLIP SRN 1/3 OF CWA...NONETHELESS WL CARRY CHC 
POPS ALL NGT IN CASE OF DYNAMIC DRIVEN TRW/RW...ALTHO FEEL MOST 
SHALL RMN DRY AS H7-H3 LYR MSTR FALLS BLO 35 PERCENT.  BL WNDS ARND 
10-15KTS SHUD KEEP FG AT BAY XCPT IN DEEPER VLYS.    

TUES APPRS ANOTHER RND OF CONV IS IN THE CARDS...WELL IF YOU BUY 
INTO THE ETA...WHICH BRINGS A SYSM UP FM THE SW.  OPPOSED TO GFS 
WHICH SPREADS AN MCS ACR TN VLY INTO THE CAROLINAS...ROBBING AREA OF 
DYNAMICS.  OPTED TO ROLL WITH ETA GVN GUD HANDLE ON TDYS CONV...SO 
BRING POPS IN FM THE SW AND INC THEM TO LKLY ACR SRN HALF OF FA TUES 
AFTN.  WORRIED TMRW ABOUT PSBL TRAINING OF STRMS WITH H8 BNDRY 
DRAPED ACR I-64.  GUID NMBRS ON CUE WITH MIN AND MAX T GRIDS...POPS 
LIKE STATED ABV FOLLOW MORE THE MET.  

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AT 
LEAST ACROSS NORTH BEFORE NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS CWA ON WEDNESDAY.  
REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT PERIODS WITH DISTURBANCES 
PASSING THROUGH...THEREFORE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WILL CONTINUE.  

INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY TO LIKELY AND THEN LOWER 
BACK DOWN TO CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY 
WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE.  GFS AND ETA DIFFER ON TIMING AND 
LOCATION WITH THURS DISTURBANCE BUT DID NOT TRY TO GET CUTE WITH IT 
AND ROLLED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS.  INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS 
A TOUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WE REMAIN AND WARM MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF 
APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CONTINUE FRONT IN OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SYSTEM 
PULLING THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WARRANTS AT LEAST 40 POP.  POP 
FROM PE TOOL OUT OF ATLANTA ACTUALLY PUTS LINE OF 100 POP ALONG OHIO 
FRIDAY MORNING...THEN REDUCES IT TO 30 EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AT 
18Z AND THEN WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY 00Z SAT...ALL THIS OFF 6Z RUN.  
ANYWAY WILL ROLL WITH 40 WITH THIS INTO FRI EVE.

THINGS LOOK LIKE THEY ACTUALLY DRY OUT FOR SATURDAY.  DEEP 
MOISTURE/PW GONE AS WE ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS LONGITUDINALLY...BUT MAIN 
SURFACE FRONT IS STILL TO THE NORTH.  SUNDAY AND MONDAY IT IS BACK 
INTO IT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK DISTURBANCES.

NOT FAR FROM MOS.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE. 
OH...NONE.

99/HC/TRM
******************************************************************
1012 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

LINE OF CONV MVNG ACR ERN KY WEAKENING AS IT HDS E.  GVN DISCRETE 
PROPAGATION FEEL STGR CELLS WL MV SE OF FA.  TUFF CALL TDY H2 JET 
ACR LWR MS RVR VLY PRESENTLY HEADS NE THIS AFTN AND WITH TSTMS ACR 
SRN IND FEEL THESE TWO MAY CONNECT...BRINGING ANOTHER RND OF WET 
WX.  
INSTABILITY RMNS RATHER IMPRESSIVE W OF OH RVR WITH LI/S -5 AND 
SBCAPES ABV 1.0 KJ/KG.  H8 WNDS IMPRESSIVE ON AREA VWPS WHICH 
CONCURS WITH H8 WND FCST AS 50-60KTS XPCTD TO LAST THRU THE AFTN.  
ANY TSTM THAT ROLLS THRU MAIN THREAT WL BE HIGH WNDS WITH BRIEF HVY 
DWNPRS...BUT GVN 0-3KM STRM MTN ARND 35KTS FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED 
UNLESS A TRAINING SCENARIO DVLPS.  

MAXT GRIDS TRICKY THIS AFTN WITH SUBSIDENCE BHND CONV BLOB WL ALLOW 
FOR A GUD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WHICH WL SHOOT UP TEMPS.  THIS CLRNG IS 
SVRL HRS AWAY SO WL LWR HIGHS A CAT AREA WIDE AND PLAY UP WNDS ESP 
IN THE MTNS...OTRW REST UNCHANGED.

99
****************************************************************** 
355 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS BUT WIDESPREAD 
PCPN SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FM SW-NE AFTER 15Z.  WINDS 
TOUGH TO FIGURE TODAY...AS RAIN MAY LESSEN THE WIND AT SURFACE UNTIL
WARM SECTOR ARRIVES.
 
THINKING MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY CNTRL KENTUCKY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND COULD MOVE EAST INTO TRI STATE FM WEST.

DESPITE WARM FRONT LIFTING N...STILL NO SIGNS THAT THE COLD FRONT 
WILL REACH US AND MOVE THROUGH.  SO WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND 
UNSTABLE AIR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.  ETA HAD STRONG LIFT ON TUE FROM 
VORT MAX WITH GFS MUCH LESS EXCITED.  BELIEVE GFS GUIDANCE POPS OF 
20-30 TOO LOW FOR TUESDAY.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN POPS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH INITIAL RAINS
THIS MORNING. THINKING TOTAL OF AN INCH THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN 
SOUTHEAST OHIO.  SOME MINIMUMS LIKELY ON WESTERN SLOPES.  
HOWEVER...WILL THEN HAVE TO MONITOR REPETITIVE SHOTS THE REST OF 
THIS WEEK.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE WITH US.

NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED PERIODS.

BATTY + CL
******************************************************************