AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1103 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                     
ALL MODELS NOT DOING WELL WITH WIND AND TEMPERATURE FIELDS THIS                 
MORNING. CURRENTLY HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH IN SOUTHWEST            
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. RUC WHICH LOOKS THE CLOSEST HAS                   
WINDS CONTINUING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/LIGHT EASTERLY IN NORTH AND                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND               
SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS. BASED ON RUC AND CURRENT                
OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO IN THAT DIRECTION.                                       
ALSO MODELS ARE TOO COOL IN WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH                    
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT FORECAST MAXES. ALSO THICKER CLOUD COVER                
NOT SURGING IN AS FAST CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTED WHICH IS ALLOWING              
THE CURRENT RISE. SO WILL UP TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN PORTION OF AREA            
3 TO 5 DEGREES...AND WILL MAKE/KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY SUNNY OR                 
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.                                                          
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
931 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
KMQT/MONTREAL RIVER RADARS SHOW RESPECTABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES)              
BANDS CONTINUING TO IMPACT CHIPPEWA COUNTY NORTH OF M-28...                     
ESPECIALLY NEAR WHITEFISH. HOWEVER...THESE GENERALLY AREN/T STAYING             
IN ANY ONE PLACE FOR LONG. IN NORTHERN LOWER...LES IS MORE BLOBULAR             
WITH LIMITED BANDING. THOUGH REFLECTIVITIES HAVE BEEN REASONABLY                
IMPRESSIVE (LARGE AREA OF 20-28DBZ RETURNS EARLIER THIS EVENING)...             
VSBYS HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED TO DROP LOWER THAN 3SM. ACCUMS HAVE BEEN            
WELL UNDER AN INCH. IR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE                  
FEEDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST                 
RETURNS LEFT ON KAPX RADAR.                                                     
EASTERN UPPER...MAIN CONCERN IS WHETHER BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO                  
IMPACT WHITEFISH PT AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC SHOWS 1000-850MB                 
WINDS BACKING A SMIDGE MORE WESTERLY DURING THE NIGHT...REACHING                
ABOUT 275/280 BY 09Z. KMQT RADAR/IR IMAGERY MAY BE SHOWING THIS                 
TREND BEGINNING...AS WSW ORIENTED BANDS ARE STARTING TO TRANSLATE               
EAST. THUS...LES BANDS SHOULD MAKE FEWER INROADS INTO THE SAULT                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MOST THREATENED AREA BEING RIGHT AROUND                    
WHITEFISH PT. WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING IN CHIPPEWA                
COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                     
NORTHERN LOWER...IN LINE WITH RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS WILL BE                    
REDUCING SNOW MOST AREAS. CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO             
LES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NOW            
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AIRMASS DRIES CONSIDERABLY ABOVE THE                     
INVERSION...WITH MOISTURE REACHING AROUND -9/-10C ACCORDING TO THE              
ETA...-12C BY THE RUC. COMBINED WITH LIMITED LAKE RESIDENCE TIME...             
AND LES SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT. IN FACT... MOISTURE              
BECOMES LIMITED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO PROVIDE SOME FROZEN DRIZZLE                 
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IF THE ETA IS RIGHT. GIVEN -FZDZ HAS BEEN                 
OBSERVED IN PARTS OF WESTERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...WILL ADD PATCHY            
FZDZ POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS IN NW/N CENTRAL             
LOWER.                                                                          
IN THE SOUTHEAST...BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT EASIER               
THAN IS TYPICAL FOR LES TO PENETRATE INLAND AND OFF THE HIGHER                  
ELEVATIONS. WILL ADD POPS TO THE FAR SE CORNER WITH SMALL LOCAL                 
ACCUMS.                                                                         
.APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING CHIPPEWA CO.              
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS THROUGH MON.                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED STACKED LO JUST E OF JAMES BAY            
WITH SPOKES OF SHRTWV ENERGY CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THIS                   
FEATURE. ONE SHRTWV OR VORT LOBE WITH ASSOCIATED COLDER TOPS...PER              
IR LOOP...EXTENDED ACRS LK SUPERIOR WHILE A STRONGER VORT WAS                   
LOCATED TO THE NORTH NEAR CYGQ (GERALDTON). IR/WV LOOPS ALSO SHOWED             
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM NW ONTARIO. UPSTREAM OBS INDICATED            
INCREASE IN -SN WITH VSBYS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE OVER NE MN              
DESPITE INCREASE IN MID AND UPR LVL MOISTURE OVER THE NRN HLF OF THE            
LAKE...LES INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND WITH MAIN VSBY                    
REDUCTION AT KCMX FROM BLSN (OBSERVER REPORTS OF LCL VERY LO VSBY IN            
OPEN AREAS) WHILE HOUGHTON AREA WEBCAMS INDICATED LITTLE VSBY                   
REDUCTION. KMQT 88D INDICATED INCREASING RETURNS WITH MID CLD MOVING            
IN AND MAIN W-E LES BAND FROM N OF THE THE HURON ISLANDS TO N OF                
GRAND MARAIS WHICH WAS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH ETA 950 MB WINDS            
AND MAX CONVERGENCE.                                                            
MDL DIFFERENCES AGAIN INVOLVE PLACEMENT/TIMING/INTENSITY OF SHRTWV              
FEATURES MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES...ESPECIALLY BY 36 HRS. BY MON               
THE GFS WAS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER (ABOUT 6 HRS) THAN THE 00Z ETA TO               
BRING THE MAIN SHRTWV/VORT THROUGH LK SUPERIOR. THE UKMET...IN BTWN             
THE TWO...LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE AND IS IN LINE WITH               
THE 06Z ETA TREND.  IN THE SHORTER TERM...HAVE RELIED ON ETA FOR LOW            
LVL WIND FIELD DETAILS FOR GUIDANCE WITH LES PLACEMENT.                         
TODAY...EXPECT LES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM                
FIRST SHRTWV AND BATCH OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY A             
DNVA AND WEDGE OF DRIER 800-600 MB LYR AIR MOVE IN FROM 12Z-18Z.                
SO...HAVE KEPT RELATIVELY MODEST 1-4 INCH RANGE SNOW FCST.                      
HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING LES AND BLOWING SNOW AND LCL POOR VISIBILITY             
OVER THE KEWEENAW...WHICH IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO GUSTY W                        
WINDS...HAVE LEFT LAKE EFFECT SN BLSN ADVY IN PLACE THIS MORNING.               
OVER THE EAST...ONLY SLIGHT VEERING TREND FCST WHICH WOULD BRING                
SOME LES ONSHORE...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS FROM GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD.             
LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF UPR MI.                           
TONIGHT INTO MON...MDLS SUGGEST INCREASE IN 800-500 MOISTURE AND                
ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR TOWARD 00Z/MON AND RISIING INVERSION             
HGTS...BRINGING LAKE INDUCED CAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 400 J/KG BY                    
06Z...WILL BOOST LES INTENSITY.  ETA LOW LVL WINDS/CONVERGENCE                  
FAVORED LOCATIONS SHIFTING FROM NRN PORTION OF TH KEWEENAW GRADUALLY            
SOUTHWARD TO AREA BTWN ONTONAGON AND HOUGHTON. MDL QPF                          
PATTERNS/AMOUNTS...AND LCL LES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS UP TO 7                
INCHES TONIGHT AND 5 INCHES MON WHICH WOULD JUSTIFY CONTINUATION OF             
HEAVY LES WATCH. HAVE NOT UPGRADED NW UPR MI TO WARNING...IN ORDER              
TO KEEP TONIGHT'S MORE SIGNFICANT LES DISTINCT FROM TODAYS ONGOING              
WIND/LES AND MIDDAY LULL. FARTHER SW NEAR KIWD...ALTHOUGH MAINLY                
WRLY 1000-900 WINDS WILL LIMIT LES POTENTIAL...850 MB WINDS TO NEAR             
310 MAY PUSH SOME LES BANDS INTO THE AREA BUT WITH AMOUNTS TO 3                 
INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN MON. OVER E PORTION OF UPR MI...EXPECT            
LES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER. AMOUNTS OF UP TO            
6 INCHES TONIGHT AND 5 INCHES MON ALSO JUSTIFY CONTINUANCE OF THE               
WATCH. FCST CONVERGENCE ZONE WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY E            
OF MUNISING AND NORTH OF M-28. BY MON AFTERNOON EXPECT LES TO                   
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THE VORT AND H8 THERMAL TROF MOVE ON THE               
EAST. HEAVIER LES MAY LINGER OVER THE ERN CWA INTO MON AFTERNOON                
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z GFS SCENARIO OCCURS.                                 
OVER THE REST OF UPR MI...STRENGTH OF THE SHRTWV AND AMOUNT OF DEEP             
MOISTURE AND RESIDUAL LAKE MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM FROM HIGHER TERRAIN              
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND A               
HALF INCH OVER CNTRL UPR MI...VCNTY OF MARQUETTE-ISHPEMING.                     
TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FCST VALUES LOOKED ON                 
TRACK.                                                                          
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SN AND BLSN ADVY MIZ001 TODAY THROUGH MON MORN.              
       LAKE EFFECT SN AND BLSN ADVY MIZ002-003-084 TODAY.                       
       WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING                           
       MIZ002-003-084.                                                          
       WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THRU MON                                      
       MIZ006-007-085.                                                          
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
850 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
LATEST IR IMAGERY GEARED TOWARD LOW CLOUDS SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING              
SEWD INTO NERN ND AND A SMALL BIT OF NW MN...MAINLY ALONG THE RED               
RIVER VALLEY. KGFK JUST SCATTERED OUT AND KFAR HAS GONE BROKEN.                 
LATEST RUC AND MESOETA BOTH SHOW SIG MOISTURE IN LOWEST THOUSAND                
FEET REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. DRY               
AIR WILL LIKELY REACH AXN/MOX AREA...BUT CNTRL MN INTO WC WISC IS               
MORE QUESTIONABLE. WL KEEP CLOUDS IN THIS AREA...SCATTER IT OUT IN              
CNTRL AND SC MN AFTER SUNRISE...THEN SEE MORE COME IN LATER MONDAY              
PER PREV FCST. WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT            
WL NOT BE QUITE SO COOL.                                                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
TDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
945 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
RETURNS FROM LOCAL RADARS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE                
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. KTYX SHOWS SOUTHERN MOST EXTENSION OF            
BAND OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE A GENERAL               
270 FLOW THROUGH THE UNSTABLE LAYER. ETA BUFKIT PROFILES ALONG WITH             
RUC INDICATE FLOW WILL BACK SLIGHTLY AFTER 06Z AND MOVE BULK OF LES             
BAND NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF LES OVER NRN               
ONEIDA COUNTY UNTIL IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FLOW IS WELL ALIGNED WITH A            
SUFFICIENT UNSTABLE LAYER BUT LIMITING FACTOR IS LAKE INDUCED CAPE.             
WITH LIMITED DURATION AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL UP               
AMOUNTS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NRN ONEIDA COUNTY. REST OF FORECAST             
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
RRM                                                                             
...PREVIOUS AFD...                                                              
BIG PICTURE...STRONG 500MB PAC JET CONTINUES TO SPLIT JUST TO THE               
WEST OF N AM COAST.  PATTERN ACROSS US LOOKS VERY TRANSITORY OVER               
THE NEXT WEEK...AS PATTERN VARIES FROM NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY POSITIVE               
PNA.                                                                            
SHORT TERM...WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CWA ATTM.                 
NOT PRODUCING ANYTHING BUT WEAK RADAR ECHOS.  ONCE FRONT                        
PASSES...WINDS SHIFT BACK TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION...AND THE             
LAKES WILL COME INTO PLAY AGAIN TONIGHT.  LOOKS LIKE A PERSISTENT               
SINGLE BAND WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE ONTARIO AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BACK              
TO ~10C OVERNIGHT...AND INVERSION HGT CREEPS UP TO ABOVE 800MB BY               
MON MORNING.  ONT BAND SHOULD FORM ON INIT 260/270 LINE...BUT WILL              
PROBABLY FLUCTUATE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.                 
WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NRN ONEIDA...AND TO LESSER EXTENT WRN            
MOHAWK VLY.  BAND WILL SHIFT TO THE N AGAIN MON AFT...IN RESPNONSE              
TO APPROACHING 500MB SHORT WAVE.  LAKE ERIE BAND IS LIKELY TO                   
PRODUCE SOME SCT SNSH OR FLURRIES INTO THE SRN TIER OF NY AND NRN               
TIER OF PA INTO MON AM.                                                         
ONCE SHORTWAVE PASSES EARLY MONDAY EVE...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR WILL               
FILTER IN ON NW WINDS...PRODUCING MULTI-BANDS INTO THE WRN MOHAWK               
VLY...AND THE UPPER SUSQ REGION.  THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC                  
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME PRECIP ACROSS ENTIRE CWA LATE MON.                      
FLOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO SW ON TUESDAY...SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL              
WANE ON TUES AM.  500MB CLOSED LOW WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER               
NEW BRUNSWICK ON TUESDAY...AND MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE COMING FROM               
MORE OF A TRUE WESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH COULD SPELL SOME CLEARING             
FOR A GOOD PART OF TUESDAY.                                                     
MAX/MINS WILL DROP OFF A COUPLE DEGREES EVERY DAY AS SERIES OF WAVES            
TAPS INTO COLDER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE BORDER.  MAV/FWC BLEND WILL               
WORK WELL...WITH A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.                                            
EXTENDED...12Z MODELS HAVE COME CLOSER TO AGREEING THAT SYSTEM                  
EXITING THE GULF STATES TUESDAY WILL REDEVLOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST            
AND TRACK ENE...STILL SOUTH OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 00Z/26.                   
ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONIFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH...IT HAS INCREASED A               
BIT.  GFS/ETA IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK...BUT DIFFER                  
SOMEWHAT ON INTENSITY AND TIMING.  THE CANADIAN IS ALSO CLOSE...BUT             
FASTER...WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO THE INLAND LOW UNTIL IT REACHES            
NEAR KPIT...BUT THEN REDEVELOPS COASTAL LOW WAY OFF NEW JERSEY                  
COAST.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ETA TRACK WHICH WOULD MEAN LITTLE              
OR NO SNOW N AND W OF SRN TIER...WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO THE S               
AND E.  WILL NOT TRY TO GET FANCY WITH TIMING...AND JUST GO CHC TUE             
NIGHT...AND MAINTAIN POP CATEGORIES WHERE THEY ARE FOR WED.                     
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
CEMPA                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
940 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
CONTINUITY LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT AS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY IS                  
FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TO A TEE. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY BY FAR            
IS POURING OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO OSWEGO COUNTY AT THE MOMENT...WHILE            
NUISANCE FLURRIES AND -SHSN OFF LK ERIE ARE JUST NOW MAKING SOME                
NOISE ON THE KBUF RADAR.                                                        
OFF LK ONTARIO...A LOW SHEAR 270 FLOW HAS GENERATED A FAIRLY WELL               
ORGANIZED AREA OF LES OVER OSWEGO AND SRN LEWIS COUNTIES. LATEST RUN            
OF THE RUC10 SHOWS THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS                   
UNDERGONE DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT MODEL THEN LIFTS ACTIVITY           
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE TUG. THIS IS WHERE MM5 AND EARLIER 12Z ETA           
MODELS ANCHOR THE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.            
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM IR SAT IMAGES WHICH INDICATE THE           
PROLONGED 270 FLOW. THE CURRENT AREA OF LES SHOULD FURTHER ORGANIZE             
AND BECOME AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SNOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY              
MONDAY AM PERIOD WITH 1-3 INCH/HR ACCUM RATES.                                  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF            
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES LOOKS VERY GOOD...AND AM IN COMPLETE               
AGREEMENT WITH MENTIONING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 FEET OVER THE TUG. THIS           
PERSISTENT FLOW WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT CERTAINLY PUTS THAT AREA            
IN THE LOLLIPOP ZONE WHERE MAX ACCUMS SHOULD BE FOUND.                          
OFF LK ERIE...THE LES WILL BE LIMITED BY A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT             
AND SMALLER DELTA T'S. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE             
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP             
ACCUMS DOWN. ADVISORIES SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA LOOK REASONABLE.           
.BUF...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OVN AND MON AM NYZ010-012-019-020              
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING OVN AND MONDAY NYZ006>008                       
RSH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
310 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
THE ETA, MM5 AND 06Z RUC10 ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING LAKE SNOWS            
EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE ETA CONTINUES            
THE LAKE SNOWS THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT LEAST 2 FEET ARE                 
LIKELY IN THE PERSISTENT SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH TEMPERATURES A             
COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE LAST EVENT.  OFF LAKE ERIE THE LAKE              
SNOWS DIMINISH ON MONDAY AND THEN REDEVELOP FOR AWHILE MONDAY NIGHT.            
WE HAVE FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH THIS PACKAGE.                       
ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS LIKE ONLY SCATTERED ROGUE SNOW SHOWERS EXCEPT FOR            
MAYBE SOME BLEEDING NORTH AND SOUTH OFF THE LAKE ERIE BAND.                     
IT'S LOOKING A LITTLE BLEAK OUTSIDE OF LAKE SNOWS FOR A                         
WHITE CHRISTMAS WITH THE ETA KEEPING THE SNOW TO THE SOUTH.  THE GFS            
BACKS UP SOME SNOW OVER THE AREA, BUT IT APPEARS TO ASSOCIATED WITH             
A STRAY DEFORMATION AREA, AND WITH THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COAST              
WE DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ITS VERIFICATION. COLDER AIR                   
CHRISTMAS DAY AND A WESTERLY FLOW COULD SPRAY SOME SNOW ELSEWHERE               
DURING THE DAY, BUT WE FEEL IT IS ONLY A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.                   
THE BEST BET FOR SNOW IS THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH,             
BUT AT THIS DISTANCE WE WILL ONLY CALL FOR CHANCE POPS.                         
.BUF...                                                                         
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING                     
    NY010-019-020                                                               
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY NYZ006-007-008               
APB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
930 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2002                                                      
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT 15Z AND                
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY TODAY. CRP/BRO VWP ALREADY SHOW DEEP               
LAYERED S/SE FLOW ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE VERY SHALLOW COOL LAYER AND             
IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOUNDARY LAYER                
FORCING/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE(SUFFICIENTLY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE               
DEFICITED PER RUC 290K)/RADAR TRENDS/MOTTLED CLOUD APPEARENCE PER               
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUES INSERTION OF DRIZZLE(ESPECIALLY EAST). WILL            
ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10AM. HOWEVER...HIGHER                
DEWPOINTS WILL BE ADVECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS             
WINDS VEER EAST AND THIS SUPPORTS RETENTION OF AREAS FOG WITH PATCHY            
FOG MOSTLY ELSEWHERE. SOME TWEAKING OF TEMPERATURES WILL BE                     
NEEDED...NUDGING THEM UP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND LOWERING THEM            
A TAD OVER THE WEST. WILL CHANGE CLOUD COVER TO CLOUDY EVERYWHERE.              
MARINE...WEAK BOUNDARY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WINDS OVER THE             
MARINE ZONES CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 5 TO 10                 
KNOTS WITH PATCHY FOG OVER BAYS. BOUNDARY PROGGED TO RETURN NORTH               
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AS THE LLJ               
STRENGTHENS. NO MAJORT CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME TO LATEST                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
85/78                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
205 AM MST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR                             
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN CWA AS A WINTER STORM HEADS TOWARDS PORTIONS OF              
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.                                                
TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA REMAINS NEARLY                     
STATIONARY WHILE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...             
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH A CONTINUATION OF COOLER AIR FILTERING            
INTO THE AREA. QUESTION BECOMES PRECIP. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND             
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE            
CWA WITH DRIER AIR BECOMING MORE PREVALENT AS ONE GOES NORTHEAST.               
THESE FACTORS AND EJECTING DISTURBANCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WOULD FAVOR           
SNOWFALL OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA TODAY. FSL RUC II IN AGREEMENT           
WITH ETA/AVN/NGM IN PRODUCING MEASURABLE SNOW FROM ROUGHLY FLAGLER              
COLORADO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TO THE MONUMENT ROCKS (SOUTHWEST GOVE           
COUNTY). HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER GREELEY AND WICHITA WHERE UP TO           
3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AFTER DISCUSSIONS FROM KPUB/KDDC (THANKS) I               
WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY AND UPDATE AMOUNTS. AS JET ENERGY AND           
UPPER WAVES MOVE BY NEUTRAL OMEGA TAKE PLACE BUT QPF FROM AVN/ETA               
SUGGEST SMALL POPS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN            
THIS AREA ALSO UNDER BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHT DIVERGENCE            
AT 500 MB WILL GO ALONG WITH IT.                                                
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER SYSTEM BREAKS APART DURING THIS TIME              
PERIOD AND MODEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DOWNWARD OMEGA/QPF POINT TO A               
DRY FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW NOT WELL HANDLED BUT APPEARS TO           
BE A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE              
THURSDAY. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE                
FEATURES ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND MORE SUN POINT TO WARMER                
TEMPS.                                                                          
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE TROUGH           
POINT TO SOME MORE WARMING.                                                     
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...LEFT GENERALLY AS IS.                                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION OF TIME.                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
505 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LES TRENDS/HEADLINES.                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED ELONGATED MID/UPR LVL NRN                 
STREAM CUTOFF LO CENTERED OVER NRN QUEBEC. STRONG SHRTWV/VORT WAS               
LOCATED UPSTREAM...JUST NW OF LK SUPERIOR. IR/WV LOOPS ALSO SHOWED              
AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ENHANCED TOPS HAD DESCENDED ACRS NW UPR             
MI. LOW LVL MOISTURE WAS ALSO PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM PER CWPL SNDG                  
(MOIST ISOTHERMAL AT -16C TO 700 MB) AND REPORTS OF 3-5SM -SN                   
EARLIER OVER NE MN AND AT CYQT. COMBINATION OF UPWARD MOTION WITH               
700-300 QVECTOR CONV WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV AND COLDER H8                
TEMPS TO NEAR -16C (GIVING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO AROUND 19C) HAS BROUGHT             
NOTABLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LES INTO NW UPR MI AND            
ERN LK SUPERIOR. HEAVIER SNOW BEGAN NEAR KCMX AT 07Z WITH VSBY                  
FREQUENTLY DOWN TO NEAR 1/4SM WITH +SHSN AND HOUGHTON WEBCAMS ALSO              
SHOWED VSBY DOWN TO AROUND 1/2SM AT TIMES. KMQT 88D SHOWED 280-290              
ALIGNED BANDS WITH CORES OF 28DBZ REFLECTIVITY OVER ERN LK SUPERIOR             
WITH BANDS APPEARING TO BRUSH THE SHORELINE E OF GRAND MARAIS.                  
TODAY...00Z/06Z WAS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF SHRTWV/VORT                
UPR MI THAN THE 00Z GFS WITH THE VORT AXIS INTO INTO NW UPR MI AT               
18Z WHILE THE GFS PLACES IT OVER SE UPR MI. GIVEN RECENT                        
TRENDS...SLOWER ETA PREFERRED WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z                
RUC.SO...EXPECT LCLY HEAVY LES TO CONTINUE OVER NW UPR MI TIL THIS              
AFTERNOON WHEN DNVA/SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER WITH LOWER INVERSION HGTS             
AND ASSOCIATED WARMING OF H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 13C. SNOWFALL RATES UP             
TO 1 INCH/HR SHOULD CONTINUE WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO             
6 INCHES. ETA 950 MB WIND FCST DEPICTS SLOW VEERING TREND WITH                  
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SOUTH FROM KCMX AFT               
12Z TOWARD NE ONTONAGONA AND CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY. SHIFT TOWARD 300            
WIND WILL ALSO SHORTEN FETCH INTO MOST OF THE KEWEENAW.                         
HOWEVER...CONTINUED LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV ALONG WITH LOW LVL                 
MOISTURE UPSTREAM WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING LES GOING.SO...WL LEAVE LES            
WARNING HEADLINE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING. OVER THE EAST...ETA             
LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND IS CONSISTENT IN KEEPING 950              
MB CONVERGENCE ZONE ACRS FAR ERN ALGER (NEAR GRAND MARAIS) TO NRN               
LUCE COUNTY THROUGH 18Z. AFT 18Z...WINDS VEER ENOUGH FOR SOME LES TO            
REACH KERY. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM SHRTWV WILL BE                      
DEPARTING/WEAKENING BY THIS TIME. SO...EXPECT SHARP GRADIENT TO                 
HEAVIER SNOW OVER NRN PORTION OF LUCE COUNTY AND FAR NRN SCHOOLCRAFT            
COUNTY. AGAIN LES WARNING HEADLINE MAINTAINED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS            
LATER EXIT OF THE SHRTWV AND LONGER FETCH KEEP HEAVIER LES GOING                
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NE CWA.                                        
OVER THE REST OF UPR MI...EXPECT THAT SCT -SHSN WILL DIMINISH BY                
AFTERNOON AS THE SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH WITH ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING              
TO NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH.                                                    
CAA SHOULD COUNTER DIURNAL TREND WITH HIGHS NOT NEAR EARLY MORNING              
READINGS.                                                                       
JLB                                                                             
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. LATER            
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN                     
WISCONSIN. UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AND WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FORECAST AREA. A                   
THERMAL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL LOWER THE                 
DELTA-T'S ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL                
INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP THE            
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THIS            
WILL KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS GOING. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB WILL             
LOWER THE INVERSION OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND 900MB. CONDITION               
FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE...BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE              
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.                                                       
A CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE TO EAST CENTRAL QUEBEC ON TUESDAY. A BROAD               
RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN                   
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA            
TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE             
LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKY'S RIDGE AND REACH NORTHWEST ONTARIO BY                
12Z TUE. AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS INTO NORTHERN ATLANTIC STATES...                
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. A            
BROAD SURFACE RIDGES WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.            
850MB TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LOWER TO -10C...GIVING A                     
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S OF 13C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB WILL BE             
90 PERCENT OR HIGHER ON TUESDAY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE            
WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WIND MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.              
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER            
NORTHERN U.P...MAINLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND BETWEEN                   
MUNISING AND WHITEFISH POINT. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE                  
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WILL                  
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.                                                         
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WARM            
AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING UP THE 850 MB                
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.             
LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS FAVOR MAINLY DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA             
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...AND START TO            
BACK WEST.                                                                      
THE WINDS WILL BACK WEST ON WEDNESDAY. DELTA-T'S WILL DECREASE TO 8C            
OVER THE WEST AND 11C OVER THE EAST. LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY                
WILL BE AROUND 65 PERCENT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE                
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. 280K                   
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON                      
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT GOING INTO EARLY                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                                
A THERMAL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER THE                    
INVERSION TO 950MB AND WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST. DELTA-T'S WILL                
LOWER TO 10C ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS SHOULD END LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
.MQT...LES WRNG MIZ006-007-085 THROUGH TODAY.                                   
       LES WRNG MIZ001>003-084 THROUGH THIS MORNING.                            
       GALE WARNING E LK SUPERIOR.                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
302 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
... SNOWSTORM FOR CHRISTMAS ??? ...                                             
TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  FIRST IS WHAT HAPPENS            
THE OUR FEEBLE LAKE EFFECT EVENT CURRENTLY UNDERWAY?  THEN NEXT                 
QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH DOES THAT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM GET             
CHRISTMAS EVE?                                                                  
CURRENTLY A MODERATED SHORTWAVE IS PASSING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN.  THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 10000 FT.            
THE RUC AND ETA SUGGEST THE 1000/850 RH REMAIN NEAR 90 PCT TILL 12Z.            
WHILE THAT IS GOING ON... WE HAVE THE 850 MB -12C ISOTHERM MOVING               
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH 1000/850 MEAN WIND (VAD) 270/35KTS.                   
NORMALLY WITH LAKE TO 850 TEMP DIFFERENCE NEAR 15C... THE 1000/850              
RH NEAR 90 PCT AND THE -12 WELL INTO THE CLOUD DECK WE WOULD HAVE A             
DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT UNDERWAY.  HOWEVER... THERE IS THE                
MATTER OF THAT 140 TO 150 KNOT JET SEGMENT PASSING BY JUST TO OUR               
SOUTH THIS MORNING.  THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION HAS A SIGNIFICANT                 
AMOUNT OF SINKING AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  EVIDENCE OF THAT CAN BE              
SEEN ON THE IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS WITH DRYING AIR OVER SOUTHWEST             
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS PICK UP BY BOTH THE RUC AND ETA SINCE THEY               
BOTH SHOW DRYING AIR OVER SOUTHWEST LAKE MICHIGAN THAT DOES MOVE                
INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TOWARD MORNING. BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS ONCE             
THE SHORTWAVE GETS THROUGH BY 12Z INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH TO NEAR               
3000 FT BY 18Z.  THE -12C IS NO LONGER IN THE CLOUDS EITHER.  SO I              
SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS (MOSTLY N OF INTERSTATE 96) DIMINISHING QUICKLY            
TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. I WILL HAVE FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST               
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT SEEMS                
FAIRLY STRONG AND WITH WEST WINDS... AND LAKE TO 850 TEMP                       
DIFFERENCES STILL NEAR 14C AT 00Z TONIGHT... CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.                
IT SHOULD BE NOTED TOO THAT THE 1000/925 THICKNESS VALUES FALL                  
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT (COLD AIR CONTINUES TO                
COME IN AT LOW LEVEL WHILE WARMING STARTS ABOVE 925 MB AFTER 12Z).              
IN ANY EVENT WHAT EVEN ACCUMULATIONS THERE WILL BE TODAY WILL BE AN             
INCH OR LESS (MOST THOUGH 15Z AND THEN NORTH OF MKG).                           
TONIGHT THE COLD AIR POOL PULLS OUT AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS              
HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THAT PUSHES THAT STRONG JET CORE             
NORTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN.  ONCE THAT HAPPENS... THE TEMPS BETWEEN            
950 AND 700 MB WARM AND WARM BY FAR AND AWAY TO MUCH OF ANY LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE IT REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE SNOW                 
SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...I WILL KEEP FLURRIES GOING OVERNIGHT.             
ON TUESDAY... SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN BETWEEN THE EXITING NORTHERN            
STREAM SYSTEM AND THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.  SOUTHWEST             
MICHIGAN IS IN A "COL".  WITH INVERSION HEIGHT LOW (BEING ON THE                
SOUTH SIDE OF THE POLAR JET BY THEN) AND 850 AND 925 TEMPERATURES TO            
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT... BUT THE 1000/925 RH AVERAGING NEARLY 85 PCT             
THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY... I WILL GO WITH A STRAIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY              
FORECAST.                                                                       
AS FOR THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM... THE MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED                
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  SINCE THE MODELS                  
TYPICALLY OPEN UP SOUTHERN STEAMS UPPER WAVES TO FAST... AND SINCE              
THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AT                
NIGHT... I BELIEVE IT WOULD NOT BE A STRETCH TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM              
WILL END UP FARTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING                
(ENSEMBLES OR NO ENSEMBLES).  CURRENTLY THE ETA IS THE MOST NORTH               
AND STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER LOW... IT ALMOST KEEPS A CLOSED UPPER              
LOW... IT SEEMS BETTER TO ME TO PUT A LOW CHC POP IN THE FORECAST               
FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CHRISTMAS EVE.  WE WILL HAVE TO                 
WATCH LATER MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE TREND CONTINUES.  THE OTHER                
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAST DOES THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM             
TRANSFER FROM THE PRIMARY SYSTEM TO THE SECONDARY OVER THE EAST                 
COAST?  CAN NOT ANSWERS THESE QUESTION JUST YET.  NOTE... SINCE                 
NORTH WINDS RESULT IN DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTHWEST                  
MICHIGAN...AND SINCE THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SINNING AIR ON THE NORTH            
SIDE OF THE SYSTEMS PRECIPITATION AREA... IT IS QUESTIONABLE THAT               
THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOWER                  
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT.  EVEN SO... FOR NOW... SINCE THE TRACK OF               
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT CARVED IN STONE... I WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING                
THERE TOO.                                                                      
THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION DTX (RAY).                                          
ZONES BY 415 AM.                                                                
BILL                                                                            
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                 
AS FAR AS THE EXTENDED PERIODS ARE CONCERNED...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY             
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PACKAGE. AS THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FROM            
TUE MOVES EAST AND AFFECTS THE NORTHEAST CONUS ON WED...LOW LEVEL               
FLOW WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE LOW LEVEL              
NW FLOW...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA. H850 TEMPS ARE                  
PROGGED TO FALL TO -11 TO -13C ON WED. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH               
LAKE MICHIGAN TEMPS AROUND 5C WILL PRODUCE DELTA T/S IN THE MID TO              
UPPER TEENS. RH X-SECTIONS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AROUND...           
ESPECIALLY AT AND ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM. WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE              
EFFECT SHSN FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS BOUT OF LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO BE             
SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS WAA FROM THE WEST WILL HELP SHUT OFF ANY LAKE             
EFFECT SHSN EARLY THU. WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN THOUGH THROUGH THE               
DAY AS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE                
CLOUDS.                                                                         
AS A SFC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH                     
FRI...WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN WEAK WAA.               
WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH AND WAA...WILL KEEP THE PARTLY CLOUDY            
GOING FOR FRI. IT LOOKS LIKE ATTM...EVEN EARLY SAT COULD BE NICE                
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AS A WEAKENING TROUGH/COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES LATE SAT...WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN. LOOKING AT THICKNESSES            
AND LOW LEVEL TEMPS...PCPN LOOKS TO BE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. WILL                
ADJUST THIS THINKING TO THE LATE SAT/SUN TIME FRAMES.                           
NJJ                                                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
345 AM CST MON 23 DEC 2002                                                      
MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS UPPER LOW. WATER             
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS IS STILL A CLOSED SYSTEM. WITH                
LACK OF DATA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE WEAKENING              
THE LOW WAY TOO FAST. OF CONCERN IS THE DRY AIR THAT IS MOVING INTO             
THE BIG BEND IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT THAT IS                      
COMBINING WITH LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ASSIST IN THE                     
OVERRUNNING CONVECTION THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE            
CWA. 06Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON AT LEAST                  
THROUGH NOON. USING THE AXIS OF THE 850MB LOW POSITION FOR THE                  
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY WORK FAIRLY             
WELL. SNOW ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PARMER AND BAILEY COUNTIES WITH             
ACCUMULATIONS ON SOME ROADWAYS. PRECIPITATION IS A MIX OF SNOW AND              
SLEET FURTHER SOUTH...MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN FROM PLAINS             
TO FLOYDADA TO EAST OF SILVERTON. BELIEVE THAT USING THE BACKSIDE               
OF THE 85H LOW ON THE RUC WILL BE A GOOD TRANSITION LINE FOR THE                
PRECIPITATION FORM MIXED TO SNOW. AT LAST GLANCE WITH A LITTLE BIT              
OF EVAPORATIONAL COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BUMP THE CHANGEOVER           
UP JUST SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS.                   
BELIEVE THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL                  
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOW AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO BEST ESTIMATES              
WOULD INDICATE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS FROM              
BRISCOE AND FLOYD COUNTY WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER.               
NORTHEAST ZONES WILL CHANGE TO SNOW A LITTLE LATER BUT BELIEVE 4+               
IS STILL A GOOD BET. FOR THE SOUTHERN 2 ROWS WEST OF THE CAPROCK WE             
SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT WITH THE                     
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRANSITION. USING THE RUC WE WILL CHANGE THIS                
AREA OVER TO SNOW BY 16Z WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.               
BELIEVE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WILL BE A LATE CHANGE TO SNOW SO WILL GO             
WITH NO HIGH-LITES THERE FOR NOW. ONLY MENTION UP TO 1 INCH OF                  
SNOW. BELIEVE THE SNOW WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO COVER BOTH TODAY                
AND A DECENT PORTION OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. SO WILL ISSUE THE                   
WARNING AND ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.                                       
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE MOST LIKELY BEEN REACHED. EXPECT STEADY            
TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY.                                                  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PACKAGE IT APPEARS ANOTHER FAST MOVING                
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT                 
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LOOKS GOOD. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE              
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH EXPECTED SNOW               
COVER AND MOST LIKELY LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE SNOW.                      
MM                                                                              
FRIONA      28 21 29 18 / 100 80 20 00                                          
TULIA       30 21 31 19 / 100 80 20 00                                          
LUBBOCK     35 24 32 21 / 100 80 20 00                                          
BROWNFIELD  36 24 33 22 / 100 80 20 00                                          
CHILDRESS   37 25 33 21 / 100 80 30 00                                          
ASPERMONT   41 28 37 24 / 100 80 30 00                                          
.LUB...HEAVY SNOW WARNING TXZ21>32 THROUGH TONIGHT.                             
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TXZ33>36-39>41 FOR TODAY.                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
315 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF THE               
YEAR FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COMES TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THE               
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN EXPECT A WET MORNING              
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CREATE A SHOPPING HAZARD. A MORE                 
OMINOUS THREAT EXISTS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE DAYTIME                   
HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO A THEAT FOR                 
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.                                                       
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE MORNING STREAMER CELL SPEEDS OF AROUND 30                
TO 35 MPH, WOULD BE CONCERNED OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOILS REMAIN             
NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES HOLDING BELOW 1.5 FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT ONLY THREAT OF               
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINS TO BE IN THE PATHS OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT                 
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION                
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS WITH SEVERE                   
WORDING MENTIONED AREA-WIDE.                                                    
WITH 06Z SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SLIGHT EASTWARD POSITION OF THE             
UPPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO FORECAST AND A PAIRED JET PATTERN                  
INDICATING DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE              
QPF TRENDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ALREADY FASTER GFS.              
RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW             
LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.                                            
WITH A NEAR SOLID AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WILL CALL FOR HIGH                
POPS OF 80 TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. HELICITIES               
COULD APPROACH 500 M2S2 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD NOON              
ACCORDING TO THE RUC; WITH 1500 J/KG OR GREATER CAPES, THE THREAT               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES NEEDS TO BE WORDED STRONGLY HERE.              
FOR WESTERN SECTIONS, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH            
SEVERE WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER             
A FEW HAILSTORMS DESPITE A GOOD DRY PUNCH ENTERING WEST TX.                     
WITH THE FASTER SPEED, WILL PLAN ON LESS MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE               
WHEN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.             
WILL TRIM POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST.                                    
OTHERWISE A WARM AND DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESUME AGAIN FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEPICT ANOTHER VIGOROUS              
STORM SYSTEM THREATENING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK            
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR                
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                
TEXAS.                                                                          
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
AUS 066/041/052/030/057 +5200                                                   
DRT 071/043/056/034/061 52-00                                                   
SAT 071/042/057/035/059 +4-00                                                   
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
18/3/PM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
330 AM PST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
STRATUS AND FOG...ALONG WITH FROST...IS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS                   
MORNING AND THROUGH PARTS OF TODAY. AS OF 300 AM...VALLEY                       
TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM 32 TO 39. THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY                  
PATCHY AND MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAYS 99 AND 43. YET...VISIBILITIES                
HAVE REMAINED ABOVE A QUARTER MILE IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE                   
HANFORD/VISALIA AREA IN THE WORST PART OF THE FOG. RUC ANALYSIS                 
COMBINED WITH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW NOW PUSHING              
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OVER THE WEST COAST...THE DEVELOPING              
RIDGE IS PUTTING THE CWFA UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN              
WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND FROST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE             
THE INTRODUCTION OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.                                      
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING THE NEXT PACIFIC               
STORM INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT AS                   
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS STORM...WILL EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE               
DISTRICT FOR A SHORT DURATION OF TIME. A RATHER STRONG JET                      
STREAM WILL DRIVE THE STORM THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ALLOWING THE               
DISTRICT TO DRY OUT CHRISTMAS DAY. YET...ANOTHER STORM BEHIND THE               
FIRST WILL RE-INTRODUCE PRECIP OVER THE DISTRICT LATER WEDNESDAY                
INTO THURSDAY. WITH A STRONG JET ON TUESDAY STORM...QPF WILL REMAIN             
LIGHT AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND STORM LOOKS MORE                  
IMPRESSIVE WITH BETTER POSSIBLE PRECIP TOTALS.   MOLINA                         
IN THE EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TO THE WETTER SOLUTIONS                 
THAT INDICATE PERSISTENCE OF STORMY PATTERN. GFS PROGS THE NEXT                 
SYSTEM TO BE A WET ONE FOR LATER THURS/FRI. FOR THE WEEKEND...NO ONE            
MODEL TO HANG A HAT ON. GFS TRYING TO BUILD A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST              
COAST BY SUN...THE UKMET BUILDS IT SAT...BUT EURO AND GEM KEEP                  
THINGS MORE UNSETTLED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW. IN KEEPING WITH                       
PERSISTENCE...WILL FOLLOW THE FLATTER FASTER EURO SOLUTION FOR                  
NOW...AND JUST BROADBRUSH CHANCE OF PRECIP SAT/SUN. NOT MUCH                    
CONFIDENCE DAYS 6-7.  BINGHAM                                                   
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN                                
934 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
MORNING RAOB DATA SHOWS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A STRONG            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ~850MB...SO EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE CLOUDS                
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST           
WIND FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL             
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS (MID/UPPER 70S)            
THROUGHOUT WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS. ONGOING ZONES COVER ALL OF               
THIS...SO NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.                                            
MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOY TRENDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST RUC               
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PACKAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...SO NO                 
CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE 1030 AM UPDATE.                                         
.TBW...NONE.                                                                    
MCMICHAEL                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1020 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                     
LATEST RUC AND 88D ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SETTING UP            
ALONG I69.  1000-850 WINDS REMAIN FROM THE WEST NEAR 30 KTS WITH 850            
TEMPS STILL -10 TO -12...DELTA T/S RIGHT AROUND 13C.  INVERSION                 
HEIGHTS FROM SURROUNDING UPPER AIR SIGHTS ARE NEAR 850 MBS BUT WELL             
WITHIN A GOOD ICE NUCLEATION PARAMETERS.  WE WILL UPGRADE THIS                  
REGION TO OCCASIONAL SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1 INCH.  AS              
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVE DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER THIS                  
AFTERNOON...WE SLOWLY WARM UP 850 TEMPS AND DECREASE AVAILABLE                  
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE...TO REDUCE SNOW BACK TO FLURRIES PER NEW              
RUC GUIDANCE.                                                                   
OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  LOTS OF TALK ABOUT                    
TOMORROWS SNOW EVENT...LATEST 12Z ETA IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH            
RESPECT TO SFC LOW TRACK ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVELS DO NOT SUPPORT                   
POSITION.  WITH THESE POSITIVE TILTED TROFS...IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT             
TO HAVE THESE SYSTEMS COME THIS FAR NORTH.  WE WILL AWAIT FOR THE               
GFS BEFORE MAKING DECISIONS.                                                    
ZFP AND GRIDS ON THE STREET.                                                    
.DTX...GALE WARNING...TODAY...ALL OF LAKE HURON.                                
BGM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
925 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE LATEST RUC WILL UPDATE ZONES                
AND CHANGE TODAY/S WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NO OTHER CHANGES                
PLANNED.                                                                        
FCSTID =    5                                                                   
CAE   64  42  54  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
AGS   64  43  58  48 /   0  60 100  50                                          
SSC   64  42  55  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
OGB   64  43  58  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RJL                                                                             
THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.                              
**************************************************************                  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
308 AM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TUE. GFS             
SHOWING BETTER RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN ETA/NGM. INTENSE UPPER LOW              
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. PLUME OF UPPER              
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE                 
PLAINS STATES. FOR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL            
CI EXPECTED...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES                   
SOUTHWEST. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY. CLOUDS THICKENING OVERNIGHT. WARM              
FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS GULF COAST REGION. 290-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT             
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN ETA MODEL SHOWING MODERATE LIFT                 
TOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CSRA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL              
BE DRY EARLY AND ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK. WILL                    
INCREASE POP TO LIKELY AGS AREA AND CONTINUE CHANCE REST OF CWA.                
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH 250 MB                  
ENTRANCE REGION OF JET ACROSS AREA. STRONG 850MB WARM AIR                       
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40KT. WILL GO                  
CATEGORICAL. MODEL QPF/HPC RATHER HIGH IN THE MIDLANDS...WILL                   
MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. AVN INDICATING IN-SITU WEDGE SETTING               
UP...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM MS TO THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.                    
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST. EXPECT COOLER AIR MASS IN              
NORTH CAROLINA TO SPREAD SOUTH INTO MIDLANDS/CSRA. WARM FRONT JUST              
SOUTH OF AGS IN THE AFTERNOON...MAY TRY TO MOVE NORTH. WILL FORECAST            
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S. LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TUE NIGHT...LIFT AND                 
MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE COAST. DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO AREA AFTER                
00Z...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP              
CHANCE POPS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. WED...LOOKS BREEZY AND COOL...PUT            
WILL DROP POPS.  TEMP FORECAST...NEAR LOCAL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT                  
COOLER TUE.                                                                     
FCSTID =   19                                                                   
CAE   64  42  54  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
AGS   64  43  58  48 /   0  60 100  50                                          
SSC   64  42  55  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
OGB   64  43  58  48 /   0  50 100  50                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
AWP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
10 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                       
SENT QUICK UPDATE TO ZONE PACKAGE FOR TORNADO WATCH # 798 WHICH                 
REPLACES #797.   MORE LATER.                                                    
06/08                                                                           
ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF THE               
YEAR FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COMES TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THE               
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN EXPECT A WET MORNING              
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CREATE A SHOPPING HAZARD. A MORE                 
OMINOUS THREAT EXISTS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE DAYTIME                   
HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO A THEAT FOR                 
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.                                                       
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE MORNING STREAMER CELL SPEEDS OF AROUND 30                
TO 35 MPH, WOULD BE CONCERNED OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOILS REMAIN             
NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES HOLDING BELOW 1.5 FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT ONLY THREAT OF               
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINS TO BE IN THE PATHS OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT                 
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION                
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS WITH SEVERE                   
WORDING MENTIONED AREA-WIDE.                                                    
WITH 06Z SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SLIGHT EASTWARD POSITION OF THE             
UPPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO FORECAST AND A PAIRED JET PATTERN                  
INDICATING DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE              
QPF TRENDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ALREADY FASTER GFS.              
RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW             
LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.                                            
WITH A NEAR SOLID AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WILL CALL FOR HIGH                
POPS OF 80 TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. HELICITIES               
COULD APPROACH 500 M2S2 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD NOON              
ACCORDING TO THE RUC; WITH 1500 J/KG OR GREATER CAPES, THE THREAT               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES NEEDS TO BE WORDED STRONGLY HERE.              
FOR WESTERN SECTIONS, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH            
SEVERE WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER             
A FEW HAILSTORMS DESPITE A GOOD DRY PUNCH ENTERING WEST TX.                     
WITH THE FASTER SPEED, WILL PLAN ON LESS MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE               
WHEN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.             
WILL TRIM POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST.                                    
OTHERWISE A WARM AND DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESUME AGAIN FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEPICT ANOTHER VIGOROUS              
STORM SYSTEM THREATENING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK            
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR                
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                
TEXAS.                                                                          
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
AUS 066/041/052/030/057 +5200                                                   
DRT 071/043/056/034/061 52-00                                                   
SAT 071/042/057/035/059 +4-00                                                   
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
18/3/PM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
545 AM CST MON 23 DEC 2002                                                      
PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AS              
BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL LIFT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SPREADS OVER            
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE             
WEST. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL APPEAR TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME                 
DEALING WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...EITHER DEPICTING A DEEP TROUGH OR            
A VERY WEAKLY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AT BEST. HOWEVER...PER ANALYSIS              
OF UPPER AIR DATA AND WV IMAGERY IT SEEMS THAT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION            
MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOSED OFF THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING. ALSO...                
MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED STRENGTH OF JET STREAK DIVING              
SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST                
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD REMAIN CLOSED A LITTLE LONGER.             
PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE PANHANDLES DUE TO THE ABOVE DISCREPANCIES                 
WOULD BE REFLECTED IN INTENSITY AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION.                  
CONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVATIONS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS                
BASED TOWARDS THE TREND OF A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION. SEVERAL HOURS            
OF RUC40/LAPS ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC                  
UPGLIDE AND STRONG 700-500MB DIV-Q VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS              
STRONGER THAN WHAT LAST EVENINGS SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE INDICATING.            
ANOTHER SIGN OF A SYSTEM MORE INTENSE THAN EXPRESSED BY THE MODELS.             
THEREFORE...SHIFT TEAM DECIDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES           
IN A HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH UP TO 10                
INCHES IN THE NE TX PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE WITH            
A CHANCE OF SNOW ON TUESDAY.                                                    
AFTER TUESDAY ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST. SHOULD             
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER               
WARMING TREND TO A VERY GRADUAL RATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                       
FCSTID = 04                                                                     
AMARILLO    30 21 31 16 / 100 100 30 10                                         
BEAVER      30 19 32 13 / 100  90 30 10                                         
BOISE CITY  27 18 31 11 / 100  80 30 10                                         
BORGER      32 20 31 15 / 100 100 30 10                                         
BOYS RANCH  31 19 31 15 / 100 100 30 10                                         
CANYON      30 21 32 16 / 100 100 30 10                                         
CLARENDON   35 23 33 17 / 100 100 30 10                                         
DALHART     29 18 31 14 / 100  90 30 10                                         
GUYMON      28 18 32 13 / 100  90 30 10                                         
HEREFORD    30 21 32 16 / 100 100 30 10                                         
LIPSCOMB    33 20 32 15 / 100 100 40 10                                         
SHAMROCK    36 23 33 17 / 100 100 40 10                                         
WELLINGTON  37 24 34 18 / 100 100 40 10                                         
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TXZ001>020.                       
OK...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT OKZ001>003.                       
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
845 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
UPDATED FCST FOR N-C WI TO MENTION SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BAND OF SNOW WITH        
VORT MOVG THROUGH THE AREA. RUC PROGS VORT TO SHEAR EWD...SO AMNT OF SWD        
MVT OF BAND IN QUESTION. MINOR ADDITIONAL CHANGES ALSO MADE TO THE REST         
OF THE FCST.                                                                    
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
JS/RE                                                                           
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
229 PM MST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT...                  
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...AND STRENGTH OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ON             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                                                   
SATELLITE SHOWING POWERFUL JET STREAMING ACROSS THE PACIFIC. FLOW               
IS AMPLIFIED FROM EASTERN PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. SYSTEM OVER               
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS STARTING TO KICK OUT. QUESTION IN THE SHORT             
TERM IS HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AND ITS AFFECT ON THE               
SNOWFALL FORECAST. AT JET LEVEL...160-180 KNOT JET OVER THE PACIFIC.            
THE GFS LOOKED TO DO THE BEST ON THIS. 100-120 KNOT JET ON WEST SIDE            
OF DESERT SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE TOO LOW WITH THIS JET                
SEGMENT. THE GFS/ETA DID THE BEST WITH THE ETA SLIGHTLY BETTER.                 
AT MID LEVELS...ETA WAS THE WORST OF THE BUNCH. IT WAS TOO FAR NORTH            
AND EAST WITH CENTER OF DESERT SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. BASED ON HEIGHT                
ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE...THE GFS WITH THE NGM SECOND MATCHED UP                 
BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH                   
FEATURES THROUGH SIX HOURS AT 500 MB. GFS AND RUC WERE ALSO DOING               
WITH 700 MB CIRCULATION NEAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS                  
BORDER. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE A LITTLE COLD. OVERALL...           
GFS DID A LITTLE BETTER. WILL BE BLENDING THE RUC/GFS FOR TONIGHT               
AND THEN LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.                    
HOWEVER...WILL MODIFY IT BASED ON KNOWN BIASES...ESPECIALLY ON ITS              
COOL BIAS.                                                                      
FOR TONIGHT/TUESDAY...IF JET PROGS/HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...           
SOUTHWEST SYSTEM SHOULD START KICKING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BULK OF ENERGY GOING THROUGH WEST TEXAS.                
SATELLITE SHOWING DRY SLOT PUNCHING FROM THE SOUTH AS SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS CONVECTIONS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. RUC/GFS AND EVEN THE ETA              
AGREE ON KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT OVER THE                    
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. MOISTURE/LIFT DECREASES EARLIEST IN GOVE AND             
LOGAN WITH LIFT SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST SECTION FOR THE REST OF               
THE EVENING. HAVE LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE HELP.                          
TO MAKE THINGS SIMPLE WILL PUT SOUTHERN FIVE KANSAS COUNTIES                    
TOGETHER AND CHEYENNE BY ITSELF. BECAUSE DRY SLOT AND SOUTHERN                  
PLAINS CONVECTION ROBBING MOISTURE...THINK FOR NOW 1 TO 3 INCHES                
LOOKS GOOD WITH GREELEY AND WICHITA GETTING THE BEST OF IT. WILL                
THEREFORE BE ISSUING NO HIGHLIGHTS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...              
DOWNWARD MOTION...AND DRIER WILL PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH. WILL HAVE               
NOTHING IN THE NORTH WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS IN THE MIDDLE. RIDGING              
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE DAY.                 
PLAN GOING NEAR TO MAV MOS.                                                     
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL              
KEEP IT DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED. GOOD RADIATIONAL                    
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MAV MOS LOOKS REASONABLE. WEAK DOWNSLOPE                
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MAV MOS LOOKS A LITTLE COOL                      
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SUN EXPECTED AND SOME DOWNSLOPE. HOWEVER...           
ETA IS PROBABLY TOO WARM. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV            
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...GFS IS BRINGING DOWN SYSTEM THROUGH              
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. GFS HAS HAD A TENDENCY OF                     
OVERBLOWING THIS SYSTEMS LATELY. HOWEVER...CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL                
FOR DEEPING AND STRENGTHENING OF SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING              
AND JET STRUCTURE EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE           
ANOTHER COLD SHOT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...AND WILL HAVE TO            
BE MONITORED CLOSESLY. AVN LOOKS A LITTLE COLD. WILL HAVE SOME SUN              
AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO OFFSET COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL TEND              
TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.                                
IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD...ECMWF AND GFS LOOK TO BE DOING THE BEST              
AS OF THIS MORNING. IF ANYTHING...THEY ARE PROBABLY TOO FAST IN                 
KICKING OUT CURRENT SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY              
AND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM/JET MOVING IN SATURDAY            
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUS RUN DURING              
THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT DOES NOT REFLECT IT DOWNSTREAM. GFS/MRF SHOW A           
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THINK FLOW WILL           
BE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED WITH SYSTEM STILL COMING OUT           
OF THE NORTHWEST.                                                               
CURRENTLY SUNDAY IS DRY WITH LOW POPS ON THE GUIDANCE. AT THIS                  
TIME...WILL KEEP IT DRY BUT WILL HIT THE CLOUDS HARDER AND LOWER                
THE TEMPERATURES SOME. EVEN WITH STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH                 
SUNDAY...THE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY LOOKS TOO COLD...AND WILL GO NEAR              
CLIMOTOLOGY AT THIS TIME.                                                       
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
255 PM EST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
TNGT/TUE: MODELS STILL HAVE NOT COME UPON A COMMON SOLUTION                     
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIP... THUS CONFIDENCE IS               
REDUCED. DO BELIEVE WE'LL SEE A LENGTHY PERIOD OF RAIN... AND BASED             
ON THE RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS OF THE MODELS... LATEST PRECIP TREND... AND            
THE LATEST RUC... WILL DELAY PRECIP ONSET UNTIL A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO            
AND SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 12Z TOMORROW. WILL HAVE THICKENING CLOUDS               
OVERNIGHT... BASICALLY AMOUNTING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY.                    
CONTINUED RAINY AND COOL WORDING FOR TUESDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLY                 
DIFFERENT H8 WIND FIELDS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE PATTERNS AMONG THE                
MODELS... AM VERY UNCERTAIN ABOUT QPF BUT WILL GENERALLY GO LESS                
THAN AN INCH FOR NOW & LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST. LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE            
TO CURRENT LOWS TONIGHT... MAINLY 35 TO 40. ONLY A ONE OR TWO                   
CATEGORY DIURNAL RISE FOR HIGHS TUE.                                            
TUE NGT/WED: EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TO TAPER OFF LATE IN               
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS H8 WINDS DIMINISH & THE MILLER B              
SURFACE LOWS HEAD NE. BAGGY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A RISK OF THE             
RAIN TAPERING OFF TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH WED MORNING. EXPECT               
DOWNSLOPING TO KICK IN AND CLEAR OUT ANY PRECIP BY THE AFTERNOON.               
WILL MAKE FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LOWS/HIGHS AS THEY             
ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE NUMBERS. -GIH                                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.              
NO CONFIDENCE IN ADDING RAIN 190 HOURS OUT AND WILL KEEP FORECAST               
DRY. WILL INDICATE SOME CLOUDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON                   
MONDAY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FRIDAY AND NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE BEYOND. -RLH               
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
HARTFIELD/RLH                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1103 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                     
HAVE RAISED MOST TEMPS TO THE 70S RANGE AND ADJUSTED WINDS.  NEXT               
AREA TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY                
AROUND JUNCTION OR LEAKEY.                                                      
.EWX...TOR WATCH #798 TIL 3 PM LEE LAVACA AND FAYETTE                           
06/08                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO/SEVERE WEATHER THREATS OF THE               
YEAR FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS COMES TWO DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS. THE               
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CAN EXPECT A WET MORNING              
WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO CREATE A SHOPPING HAZARD. A MORE                 
OMINOUS THREAT EXISTS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE DAYTIME                   
HEATING WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO A THREAT FOR                
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.                                                       
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE MORNING STREAMER CELL SPEEDS OF AROUND 30                
TO 35 MPH, WOULD BE CONCERNED OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. SOILS REMAIN             
NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINS, BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER               
VALUES HOLDING BELOW 1.5 FOR THE MOST PART, EXPECT ONLY THREAT OF               
SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINS TO BE IN THE PATHS OF ANY SUPERCELLS THAT                 
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATER TODAY. WILL MENTION                
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS WITH SEVERE                   
WORDING MENTIONED AREA-WIDE.                                                    
WITH 06Z SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A SLIGHT EASTWARD POSITION OF THE             
UPPER LOW CENTER COMPARED TO FORECAST AND A PAIRED JET PATTERN                  
INDICATING DEEPENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE              
QPF TRENDS WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT AHEAD OF THE ALREADY FASTER GFS.              
RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW             
LEVEL JET OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES.                                            
WITH A NEAR SOLID AREA OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS               
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK, WILL CALL FOR HIGH                
POPS OF 80 TO 100 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS. HELICITIES               
COULD APPROACH 500 M2S2 OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES TOWARD NOON              
ACCORDING TO THE RUC; WITH 1500 J/KG OR GREATER CAPES, THE THREAT               
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES NEEDS TO BE WORDED STRONGLY HERE.              
FOR WESTERN SECTIONS, WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE WITH            
SEVERE WORDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD TRIGGER             
A FEW HAILSTORMS DESPITE A GOOD DRY PUNCH ENTERING WEST TX.                     
WITH THE FASTER SPEED, WILL PLAN ON LESS MOISTURE BEING AVAILABLE               
WHEN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.             
WILL TRIM POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHEAST.                                    
OTHERWISE A WARM AND DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESUME AGAIN FOR THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEPICT ANOTHER VIGOROUS              
STORM SYSTEM THREATENING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK            
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR                
SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                
TEXAS.                                                                          
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
AUS 066/041/052/030/057 +5200                                                   
DRT 071/043/056/034/061 52-00                                                   
SAT 071/042/057/035/059 +4-00                                                   
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
18/3/PM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1025 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                     
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR             
THIS MORNING AND REMOVE MENTION OF TORNADO WATCH. TEMPERATURES AND              
SKY CONDITIONS ON TRACK. LOWERED POPS IN SOME AREAS...BUT KEEP THE              
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN                
COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE TODAY FROM THE             
WEST AS WIND VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING            
LOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL            
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS             
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE EAST COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY              
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                        
MARINE...FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO KEEP WINDS SOUTH TODAY...AND NOT             
VEER THEM TO THE SW.  BELIEVE THE AVN IS TOO COURSE WITH ITS                    
RESOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TX...AND PREFER THE                    
MESO-ETA/RUC SOLUTION OF KEEPING SOUTH WINDS TODAY.  PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE IN THE HILL                
COUNTRY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND WILL KEEP SPEEDS AS FORECAST.                
WILL ALSO LOWER PRECIP CHANCE OVER THE BAYS AS DYNAMICS ARE QUICKLY             
SHIFTING TO THE EAST.                                                           
.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275.                                          
78/92                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
944 AM CST MON DEC 23 2002                                                      
CURRENT HOT SPOT FOR TORNADOES WAS ENTERING INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES            
OF SE TX AT THIS HOUR.  FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS THE                
TORNADO AND SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE FLOOD             
POTENTIAL.  THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING HAD HELICITY VALUES OF 419...A CAPE            
OF 2554...AND A PW OF 1.42.  THE 1.42 INCH PW IS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD            
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE RUC HAS VERIFIED            
THE BEST SO FAR THIS MORNING OVER THE GFS AND ETA.                              
THE RUC PLACES HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 400 FOR ALL OF SE TX                
THROUGH 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AT 15Z WAS LOCATED          
FROM JUST NORTH OF AUS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SE TX              
WITH A SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF JCT.  ALSO...THE UPPER JET WAS KEEPING THE          
AREA UNDER THE BEST LIFT.  THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP SE TX IN THE BEST            
AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  AM EXPECTING THE SHOWERS STARTING TO POP              
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BUILD AS THEY MOVE          
NORTHWARD.  ONE CONCERN WE HAVE IS THAT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY                
FIRING WILL BUILD INTO AN MCS WHICH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAINFALL           
THREAT.  A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY AND WILL UPDATE THE PUBLIC          
FORECAST BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR.  WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES AND WINDS AT          
THAT TIME AS WELL.                                                              
.HGX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH  ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.                               
       SCA GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAYS.                                        
       SCA 00 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.               
PREV DISC...                                                                    
THE BIG STORY IS THE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TORNADO OUTBREAK                
TAKING SHAPE FOLLOWED BY A SQUALL LINE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON-MIDNIGHT.                                                             
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG THE WARM FRONT             
FROM SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TO SUGARLAND TO NEAR GALVESTON. SPEED MAX             
SOUTHWEST OF BIG BEND WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST.          
THIS JET WILL BE SPLITTING AS IT GETS INTO THE AREA AROUND NOON. AT             
06Z LLJ AXIS FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF AIMED AT SAN ANTONIO WHERE           
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING. GPS DERIVED PW ALONG THE                
COAST FROM CRP TO GLS INDICATES 1.15-1.3" PW ALREADY SURGING                    
INLAND. THE LLJ AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE FA AROUND 18Z WITH PW RISING           
TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5" WITH RICHER MOISTURE AIMED AT LA. LOW LEVEL               
SHEAR WITH HELICITIES THIS MORNING 200-240M2 INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON          
TO PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 300M2...WITH LCL 1200FT OR LESS. LI PLUNGES FROM          
AROUND -2 TO -8 WITH NO CAP. UNFORTUNATELY THE AREA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL          
GET DRY SLOTTED AT AROUND 21Z! THIS SHOULD OPEN THE GATES TO RAPIDLY            
INCREASE THE SEVERITY OF THE TORNADO THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND                
EASTERN ZONES. CURRENT PACKAGE ALREADY CARRIES 100 POPS FOR INLAND              
AREAS AND 80 POPS COAST WITH SEVERE AND A FOCUS ON TORNADOES. ETA AND           
GFS BOTH SUPPORT A SCENARIO WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELLS SHIFTS             
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LEAVING BEHIND ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SQUALL              
LINE TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED IN A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND RACING ACROSS BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT. VERY DRY/COLD            
AIR ALOFT SHOULD MAKE THE DOWNDRAFT IN THE SYSTEM VERY EFFECTIVE SO             
WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST CONCERNING THIS ISSUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL          
STILL AN ISSUE. EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND            
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 5660M AND DECREASING AS LLJ                  
TRAVERSES THE AREA WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND             
THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED MENTION OF           
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL                 
LIKELY NEED DAY SHIFT TO REFINE THE THREAT AREA BASED ON LOCATION               
OF AND THE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON AND NORTH OF THE WARM                 
FRONT.                                                                          
THE SHOW SHOULD BE OVER BY 6-9Z TUE AS IT ROARS OUT OVER THE GULF AND           
INTO LA. WRAP AROUND TRAPPED MOISTURE SHOULD DRAG IN CLOUDS THROUGH             
MOST OF TUESDAY WITH CLEARING LATE AFTERNOON. AREA REMAINS DRY IN THE           
WAKE AS WESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO NW AND PRECIP CHANCE DROP. WEATHER               
SHOULD GOOD FOR SANTA TO DELIVER TOYS TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON CHRISTMAS           
EVE. NEXT SHOT AT RAIN MAY NOT COME AROUND TIL SUNDAY BUT MRF LOOKS             
LIKE IT IS TOO FAST AND TOO DEEP WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE THE          
PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST GOING FOR SUNDAY MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.            
PREV PRELIMS...                                                                 
CLL TE 065/042 052/030 050 +71                                                  
IAH TE 071/045 054/033 050 +92                                                  
GLS TE 073/052 057/041 051 892                                                  
45/36                                                                           
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