AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
436 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000
LATE WITH DISSCUSSION THIS PM DUE TO ICWF DIFFICULTIES. MODELS SEEM
TO HAVE DONE A DECENT JOB TO THIS POINT ON MVG STACKED STORM OUT
INTO WRN PLNS. RUC INDICATED THAT CWA UNDER AREA OF MSTR FLUX DVRGNC
MOST OF TDY WHICH SERVED AS A "CURTAIN" IN KEEPING PCPN TO SW OF
FCST AREA. 88-D RETURNS AND SFC REPORTS INDICATE A FEW SPRINKLES
STARTING TO DVLP OVR WRN ZNS. ONCE MSTR CNVGNC DROPS TO ABT 750-800
HPA 20+ DBZ RETURNS DVLP SO BASED ON ETA CROS SECT DATA WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL PCPN IN SW TNGT...LIKELY SE AND CHC POPS N OF RVR WHERE FCST
MSTR FLUX CNVGNC BEGINS TO WEAKEN. CROS SECT THETA ANLYS ALSO
SUGGEST UPRIGHT COVECTIVE POT OVR SRN CWA UNTIL ABT 0600 UTC. BASED
ON THIS POT AND CNVTN DVLPG ACR NE OK ON RIGHT ENTR OF UPR JET
INSERTED PSBL THNDR S OF MO RVR.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTANT WITH TIME IN SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY FTHR
TRACK TO S. BASED ON AMT OF WAA THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE AND THE FACT
THAT BEST DYNAMIC LIFT MOST LIKELY REMAINING TO S OF FCST AREA
DECIDED TO ABANDON THE IDEA OF -RASN LATE TNGT/FRI AM SINCE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTANTIAL MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE REACHED. FOR
TEMPS TNGT PRETTY MUCH HELD THE LINE WITH MID 30S...LO 30S NE. LIKED
FWC NUMBERS IN BRINGING WRMR MAX TEMPS ON FRI FM NW. STILL WENT
CONSERVATIVE WITH WRM UP DUE TO XPTD DURATION OF SC AND WENT A CAT
UNDR GUIDANCE IN ALL GROUPS XPCT FOR NW MO WHERE SOME LATE DAY CLRG
WAS INTRODUCED AS ETA/NGM FCST AXIS OF LWR TROPOSPHERIC FROTOGENESIS
TO PUSH THRU.
FOR WKEND AND ERLY NXT WK LOOKS LIKE BACK TO MID SPRING CONDS HAS
HEIGHT RAPIDLY REBUILD ACR RGN. PLUS 15-20 ANOMALIES SHLD BE THE
RULE AGN. MED RANGE MODELS STILL HINTING AT DECENT TSTM OUTBREAK FOR
FAT TUE/ASH WED PRD. INSERTED CHC FOR THNDR FOR MIDWEEK.
.EAX...NONE
BODNER
</PRE></TT></td>   mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
918 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000
RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT HAS
PUSHED THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. PURCELL PROFILER IS SHOWING
INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENT BETWEEN SURFACE AND 6000 FT WHICH IS
HELPING TO PUSH TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER EAST. RECENT
RUC GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FEATURE WELL AND CONTINUES TO SHUNT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS FARTHER EAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
CURRENTLY HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND ALTHOUGH I EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG TO PERSIST
ACROSS THIS AREA FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...FEEL ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE ABOUT ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WHICH WARRANTS
CANCELLING THE FLOOD WATCH. HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH TULSA RFC
AND UPDATED THE QPF FORECAST.
LIGHT SNOW IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY WITH DDC RAOB SHOWING A SNOW SOUNDING
AT 00Z. SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING AT DODGE
CITY...GARDEN CITY...AND GUYMON. SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER EAST TONIGHT...THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
COOL ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE
OF SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP ENDS ENTIRELY. SO WILL KEEP THE RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
.OUN...
OK...FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED FOR OKZ007-008-012-013-020
TX...NONE.
JAMES
</PRE></TT></td>   ok
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
855 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000
ZONES IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT WILL HAVE TO MAKE A CHANGE TO KSUX
AREA FOR CLOUD COVER.  LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD SHIELD SLIDING
SOUTH OF AREA...WITH 00Z RUC CONTINUING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MID
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR PUSHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTH.
FORECAST LOWS SEEM IN THE BALLPARK AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES THERE AT
THIS TIME.  WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING BACK OVER CWA FROM HI PRES
CENTER IN WISCONSIN...TREND TO LIGHT WINDS IS WORKING OUT AS WELL.
.FSD...NONE
 HAMEN
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
830 PM CST THU MAR 2 2000
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND THE RUC MDL RUN THROUGH 12Z. THEREFORE
...NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
.ABR...NONE
MOHR
</PRE></TT></td>   sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1040 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000
NORTHWEST FLOW AT GROUND LEVEL GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-15 MPH THIS
MORNING...WITH LATEST OROGRAPHIC OMEGA IN RUC VERY WEAK IN EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS. CONSIDERING THE DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IN PLACE
DURING THE SHORT-TERM...WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE
PRESSURE (HEIGHT/S ALOFT) REVEALING TROUGHING NORTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE (RIDGING) NORTHWEST...SO WILL LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.  SLIGHT WIND ADJUSTMENT AS WELL. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY
SENT.
.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
DM
</PRE></TT></td>   tn
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1013 AM CST THU MAR 2 2000
WILL NEED TO UPDATE ZNS TO BRING IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO CENTRAL TX PNHDL ATTM WITH HEAVIEST
PRECIP SHIFTING N INTO NRN TX PNHDL/OK PNHDL.
AM CONCERNED WITH SNOW POTENTIAL ESP ACROSS CIMARRON COUNTY OK.
12Z RUC WINTER COMPOSITE INDICATES FAVORABLE H8-H7 THICKNESS VALUES
FOR SNOW AS EARLY AS 21Z. LATEST OBS FM CAO INDICATES WET BULB
DROPPING IN HEAVY R WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SN ALREADY. THINK INITIALLY
CHANGEOVER/MIX WILL BE ASSCD WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP THEN SWITCH BACK...
AT LEAST UNTIL COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND UPPER LOW LIFTING E ACROSS
CENTRAL TX PNHDL THIS AFTN. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE
BEFORE MAKING DEFINITIVE DECISION ON PRECIP TYPE BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MENTION SOME WINTER PRECIP WRN OK PNHDL ZNS THIS AFTN. WILL
TRY FOR UPDATE WELL BEFORE NOON.
SPECIAL 18Z RELEASE COMING ALSO SO LOOK FOR IT.
.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
COBB
</PRE></TT></td>   tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
947 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000
THIS WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TONITE.
SFC STORM SYS TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ME INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES OVRNITE TONITE. FROM LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...UPR
LOW PRESS CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE
12Z AVN AND 21Z RUC MODELS HAD INDICATED. THIS UPR LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENG ATTM.
21Z RUC SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING OVRNITE WITH TEMPS
GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20 IN THE ST LAW VLY/NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND INTO THE M20S-L30S ELSEWHERE BY 09Z TONITE. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL
MOISTURE TO BE AROUND THE FA (ESPECIALLY ACRS NORTHERN AREAS)
OVRNITE. 950 MB MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ACRS THE NORTHERN
REGIONS OF THE FA AS WELL TONITE.
BEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE (AND DEEPER MOISTURE AS WELL) HANGS AROUND THE
LONGEST ON THE VT SIDE INTO THE DAY ON FRI. H85 WAA OCCURRING ACRS
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES OF THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
"COLDEST" (NOT REALLY THAT COLD) AREA OF H85 TEMPS REMAINING ACRS
THE REGION THROUGH 00Z SAT. NORTHERLY UPR-LVL FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS
THE FA THROUGH 00Z SAT AS WELL.
CONCERNS FOR GOING FORECAST INCLUDE: LOW-LVL TEMPS WON/T BE COLD
ENUFF TO SUPPORT HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AT ALL. IT ALSO HASN/T STARTED SNOWING IN EARNEST
ANYWHERE YET...SO THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT WON/T BE VERY LONG AT
ALL (AS IT HAS BEEN FROM SOME OF THE OTHER ELEVATION EVENTS THAT THE
FA HAS EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SEASON).
THIS EVENT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT (WITH PLENTY OF
LOW-LVL MOISTURE AND A MODERATE LEVEL OF INSTABILITY AROUND) GOING
FOR IT...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.
BUFCAN/IR SAT PIX SHOW AN AREA OF ENHANCED PCPN MOVING DOWN ACRS
EASTERN QUE ATTM. HAVE UPGRADED CALEDONIA AND ESSEX CTYS IN VT TO A
WARNING BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA OF SN. ANOTHER
AREA OF SN GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER ALONG THE ST LAW RIVER VLY
ATTM...BUT FEEL THE THE ST LAW VLY IN GENERAL WILL MISS OUT ON ANY
WRAP-AROUND THAT OCCURS...SO WILL DROP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THAT/S
OUT FOR THERE CURRENTLY. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE WORK ZONES TO REFLECT
THIS.
KCXX 88D SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING SOME GOOD SNOWS THIS EVENING. HAVE SHAVED A LIL
OFF OF THE GOING SNOW TOTAL FORECAST THROUGH FRI. HAVE BUMPED
OVRNITE LOWS TONITE UP A NOTCH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
PRELIM WORK ZONES OUT. WILL ATTEMPT TO HAVE FINAL ZFP OUT BY 10 PM.
.BTV...WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNITE/FRI MORNING VTZ002-005-
       NYZ029>031-034
       WINTER STORM WARNING OVERNITE/FRI VTZ003-004-006>008
MURRAY
</PRE></TT></td>   vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
445 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000
"FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS...WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL?"
CRNTLY: SFC LOW HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH H5 LOW
TRAVERSING THE FA. KCXX SHWG THE ADVANCEMENT OF MORE -SHSN INTO
THE NRN CHMPL VLY. IR/WTR VAPOR LOOPS SHWG SLGT EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF ONTARIO WRAPARD ACTVTY BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY IS THE DVLPMNT OF
COLDER TOPS AND NEW WRAPARD BAND IN FAR NE MAINE AND ERN QUEBEC
ROTATING WSW TOWARD YUL AND NRN VT. I BELIEVE THIS IS THE SETTING
STAGE OF DVLPG DEEP LYRD MOISTURE WITH A SLOW VERTICALLY STACKED
SYSTEM THAT WL KEEP A PERSISTENT NNW FLOW IN CLIMO FVRD UPSLOE
REGIONS.
HWVR...INITIALLY DEEPEST LYRD AND CONCENTRATED WRAPARD ERN ONTARIO/
LAKE ONTARIO AND WL MOVE ACRS NRN NY TNGT. QPF AMTS ARD 1/4 INCH IN
ST LWRNC VLY AND MM5 SUGGESTS UP OVER 0.5 INCH NRN SLOPES OF ADRNDKS.
IN VT...STL IN GENERAL DRY SLOT WITH SCT -SHSN UNDER H5 LOW...BUT
WITH TIME UP NEW WRAPARD PREVIOUSLY MNTND AND ACTVTY IN ONTARIO WL
SLIDE E ACRS NRN VT AS WELL. DEEP LYRD MOISTURE STAYS ACRS NRN VT
THRU 18Z FRI WITH BLUSTERY AND PERSISTENT NNW UPSLOPE WHICH SHLD
BRG LOCALIZED HVY SNOW IN NW SLOPES LIKE JAY PEAK.
CLIMO AND PTRN RECOGNITION "HEAVILY" USED FOR THIS PKG AND THAT/S
WHERE THE BREAK-UPS COME ABOUT.
I/VE JUST ALL LIFE-LINES INCLUDING COORD WITH GYX AND ALY AND APPEAR
TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE.
SO..."FINAL ANSWER"...CHMPL VLY WL SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES BUT
WESTERN SLOPES OF FRANKLIN/CHITTENDEN >6. NC-NE VLYS WILL SEE GNRLY
2-5/3-6 BUT MTNS 6-10...GIVEN MORE UPSLOPE IN NC ZONES HAVE PUT WSW
FOR NC BUT WWA FOR NE VT.  RECENT HISTORY (NOV/DEC '99 EVENTS) SHW
MAX SNOW ALG SPINE OF NRN GREENS WITH SMALLER MAX BTWN SPINE OF GREEN
AND STANNARD RANGE (WEDV1) WITH LGTR AMTS IN DOWNSLOPE OF UPR CT RVR
VLY.
FINALLY...SYSTEM CRAWLS OUT LATE FRI/FRI NGT WITH SOME TEMPORARY
RIDGING FOR SAT. THUS...CLRG FOR MOST OF FA AND PRTL CLRG IN NE VT
FRI NGT.
SAT: STARTING OUT SUNNY BEFORE CLDS ADVANCE AHD OF NXT NRN STREAM
S/W APPROACHING FOR SAT NGT/SUN.
SAT NGT/SUN: FAST CLOSED H5 LOW WITH WEAK SFC IMPULSE MOVES ACRS FA
FOR SOME -SHSN ACTVTY BEFORE MORE RIDGING TEMPORARILY MOVES IN LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
RDRS/IR AND WV SAT PIXS CLRLY SHW MAIN CIRCULATION ACRS SRN QUEBEC/
NRN NY BDR WITH WRAPARD ACTVTY DIVING SSE ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND
ADJACENT CTYS. RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA...ETC SHW H5 LOW TRAVERSING ACRS N
CNTRY MIDDAY WITH SFC LOW ACRS QUEBEC RE-DEVELOPING IN GULF OF ME.
IN FACT...SOME SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALRDY AS PRS FALLING AND SFC
OBS INDICATING DVLPG CIRCULATION.
LATER THIS AFTN AS H5 LOW TRACKS E OF FA WL WNDS START VEERING TO NW
AND WRAPARD STARTS SHIFTING E ACRS REST OF FA.
WTR VPR/MDL DATA SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE WELL N OF CIRCULATION
ATTM THAT SHLD WRAPARD S INTO NRN FA AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE SLOW AND
ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO FA.
ALTHOUGH MOST MDL GENERATED QPF SUGGESTS BLO ADV SNOWS...MM5 SHWS
ORAPGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN BROAD AREA ACRS ADRNDKS
AND FVRD NW SLOPES OF NRN GREENS.  BUFPNSBUF JUST RELEASED (921 AM)
SHWS 4 IN/4 HR IN TUG HILL OF LEWIS. YES...SOME LAKE ENHANCED BUT
LLVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...SO STL SUPPORTIVE OF OUR THINKING.
ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BUT LOOKING AT PSBLY RE-DEFINING SOME
ZONES FOR PSBL ADV/WRNG AND ELIMINATING SOME FM WATCH ALTOGETHER
WITH NXT PKG. IT/S A TRICKY FCST UTILIZING CLIMO/PTRN RECOGNITION
MORE THAN RAW GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE/LL SEE WHERE IT ENDS UP.
NONETHELESS...IT WILL LOOK LIKE WINTER AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE N CNTRY BY FRIDAY MRNG AND SKI AREAS WL BE HAPPY.
EVERYTHING IS OUT...BUT JUST NOTICED THAT WORDED AS SNOW AND NOT
WNTR WX ADV SO CORRECTIONS COMING.
.BTV...WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/ERLY FRI NYZ029>031-034
       WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/FRI MRNG VTZ002-005
       WNTR STM WRNG TNGT/FRI VTZ003-006-008
       WNTR WX ADV TNGT NYZ026-027
       WNTR WX ADV TNGT/FRI VTZ004-007
SLW
</PRE></TT></td>   vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
945 AM EST THU MAR 2 2000
CRNTLY: FCST APPEARS ON TRACK ATTM. -SHRA MVD IN ON TIME LAST NGT
FOLLOWED BY XPCTD DRY SLOTTING THAT HAS ACCOUNTED FOR PREDOMINANTLY
JUST CLDY SKIES ACRS MUCH OF FA FOR ERLY THIS MRNG.
RDRS/IR AND WV SAT PIXS CLRLY SHW MAIN CIRCULATION ACRS SRN QUEBEC/
NRN NY BDR WITH WRAPARD ACTVTY DIVING SSE ACRS LAKE ONTARIO AND
ADJACENT CTYS. RUC/MESO-ETA/ETA...ETC SHW H5 LOW TRAVERSING ACRS N
CNTRY MIDDAY WITH SFC LOW ACRS QUEBEC RE-DEVELOPING IN GULF OF ME.
IN FACT...SOME SIGNS OF RE-DEVELOPMENT ALRDY AS PRS FALLING AND SFC
OBS INDICATING DVLPG CIRCULATION.
LATER THIS AFTN AS H5 LOW TRACKS E OF FA WL WNDS START VEERING TO NW
AND WRAPARD STARTS SHIFTING E ACRS REST OF FA.
WTR VPR/MDL DATA SUGGEST PLENTY OF MOISTURE WELL N OF CIRCULATION
ATTM THAT SHLD WRAPARD S INTO NRN FA AS ENTIRE SYSTEM WL BE SLOW AND
ALLOW THIS MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO FA.
ALTHOUGH MOST MDL GENERATED QPF SUGGESTS BLO ADV SNOWS...MM5 SHWS
ORAPGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN EXCESS OF 0.5 IN BROAD AREA ACRS ADRNDKS
AND FVRD NW SLOPES OF NRN GREENS.  BUFPNSBUF JUST RELEASED (921 AM)
SHWS 4 IN/4 HR IN TUG HILL OF LEWIS. YES...SOME LAKE ENHANCED BUT
LLVL INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT...SO STL SUPPORTIVE OF OUR THINKING.
ATTM...WL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BUT LOOKING AT PSBLY RE-DEFINING SOME
ZONES FOR PSBL ADV/WRNG AND ELIMINATING SOME FM WATCH ALTOGETHER
WITH NXT PKG. IT/S A TRICKY FCST UTILIZING CLIMO/PTRN RECOGNITION
MORE THAN RAW GUIDANCE VALUES AND WE/LL SEE WHERE IT ENDS UP.
NONETHELESS...IT WILL LOOK LIKE WINTER AGAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE N CNTRY BY FRIDAY MRNG AND SKI AREAS WL BE HAPPY.
WORKZONES AVBL SHORTLY.
.BTV...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT NYZ026-027-029-030-031-034.
       WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING VTZ002>010.
SLW
</PRE></TT></td>   vt
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LINE 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000
TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OFFSHORE MAINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING AND THEN STALL OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY...LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH GA AND
SC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/PVA MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT N OF THE CWA. FAVORABLE 700 MB VERTICAL
VELOCITIES AND MINUS 1 TO MINUS 3 LIFTED INDICIES SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
A JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT IN FAVORABLE LOCATION. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
MAY OFFSET THE THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY TO NEAR CLIMO.
EXTENDED...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA'S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...BEGINNING ANOTHER STRING OF
WARM/DRY DAYS.
MARINE...THE LATEST TREND FROM BUOY 41009 INDICATES INCREASING SEAS
TO AROUND 4 FEET WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL FOLLOW RUC2 AND
INDICATE WINDS DECREASING TODAY AS WEAK FRONT REACHES CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND WILL SPLIT COASTAL ZONES EAST/WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW. GIVEN CURRENT OBS AT BUOYS 009/010...WILL
BEGIN WITH SCEC BEYOND 20 NM. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA
MAY BE REQUIRED.
FIRE WX...EXPECT DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AOA 80
DEGREES...35 MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN MANY AREAS...BUT FOR
MINIMAL DURATIONS.
THANKS TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE FOR COORDINATION.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BE 080/057 078/053 074 013
MCO BE 082/058 078/055 077 003
MLB BE 081/059 079/056 078 003
.MLB...NONE.
JMB/SPRATT
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
740 PM EST THU MAR 2 2000
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS SPLIT UPR FLOW ACRS NAMERICA WITH NRN BRANCH
DOMINATING WX OVR CWA. SFC HI PRES ACRS NRN WI DOWNWND OF BIG UPR
RDG IN SRN CAN. LLVL AIRMASS ACRS FA DRY WITH SFC DWPTS 15-23...BUT
DWPTS ALREADY INCRSG ACRS SW ONTARIO IN WSWLY FLOW ON NRN FLANK OF
HI. A SHRTWV DROPPING SSEWD INTO ONTARIO HAS BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE
HI/MID CLD TO WCNTRL ONTARIO ON ACYC SIDE OF JET AXIS DIVING TOWARD
CYTL. NMRS STNS IN WCNTRL ONTARIO RPRTG BKN100 CIGS.
HAVE UPDATED ZNS TO ADD CONSIDERABLE HI CLD BASED ON OBSVD MID/HI
CLD TRENDS UPSTREAM AND LATEST RUC/EARLIER MODEL FCSTS FOR CWA TO
REMAIN ON ACYC SIDE OF DIGGING UPR JET OVRNGT. ALTHOUGH WNDS WL BE
LGT MOST OF NGT...XPCT HI CLD TO KEEP TEMPS FM FALLING BLO CURRENT
DWPTS. SO RAISED MIN FCST TEMPS A BIT AND REDUCED URBAN/LK/INLAND
FCST RANGE WITH LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUTLYING INLAND AREAS.
CLD TRENDS WOULD SUG FAR WRN ZNS WL SEE FEWER AC/CS ESPECIALLY
LATER... BUT XPCT EARLIER ONSET OF STRGR WSWLY FLOW/MOISTENING THERE
TO COMPENSATE.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
250 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR S THIS
MORNING...THEN TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS -- LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NERN KS/SERN NEB INTO NWRN
MO...N OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF KICT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CALLS TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITATION HAS REMAINED LIQUID IN THE FNB AND BIE
AREAS THUS FAR.  MEANWHILE...06Z MANUAL AND MSAS ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY...SOUTH OF KMLC WITH A NARROW
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SWRN NEB.  AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDED NWD FROM THE LOW INTO NERN KS.
FORECAST -- IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE KS BORDER.  ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...06Z RUC
SOUNDINGS FOR THE FNB INDICATE CONSIDERABLE DRYING THROUGH THE
PROFILE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING.  WE
WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS UP TO ZONE ISSUANCE AND WORD ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY.  ALL
SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON.  THE NWRN ZONES SHOULD BE THE WARMEST AS THEY WILL SEE
THE MOST SUN AND SHOULD HAVE THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SWLY
SURFACE WINDS.  OVERALL...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO THE
GOING FORECAST AND APPEARED REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE AREA WITH
ONLY A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.  ALTHOUGH A FEW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE CWFA FROM THE N...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE MINS.
FRIDAY...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE BENEATH BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD RESULT IN A VERY MILD DAY.  A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY OR SWLY BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN ZONES.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT STRONG...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE HIGHS.
IN THE EXTENDED...03/00Z RUNS OF THE AVN AND ECMWF SUPPORT THE GOING
FORECAST.  WE WILL LOOK AT THE NEW RUN OF THE MRF WHEN IT ARRIVES
AND MAKE CHANGES IF NECESSARY.
.OMA...NONE
MEAD
</PRE></TT></td>   ne
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
310 AM PST FRI MAR 3 2000
A STORM HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-MEXICAN
BORDER TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER AND MUCH COLDER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SAME AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR MOST
OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON SHIFT BRIEFING AND PAST PERFORMANCE OF MODELS...RUC/AVIATION
ARE THE MODELS TO GO WITH FOR THE SHORT AND NEAR TERM FORECAST SOLUTION.
IN THE SHORT RANGE...CENTER OF LOW/COLD POOL TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH
NEXT 12 HOURS. MOSTLY CHANNEL FLOW OVER LAND WHILE ANOTHER 15 DEGREES OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BETWEEN THE 750 AND 400 MB LAYER OVER
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. LITTLE PROGRESS INLAND EXPECTED OF STRONG
THERMODYNAMICS TAKING PLACE OVER WATER TODAY. CHANNEL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WITH STACKED CLOSED LOW AND FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE LINES...SO LITTLE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AVAILABLE.
HOWEVER SPEED MAX THAT EXITED SAN FRANCISCO BAY REGION AROUND 02Z AND
DROPPING SOUTH AT 35 KNOTS ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW AND NUDGES
DIVERGENCE ALOFT/SECONDARY FRONTAL BAND INLAND OVER ORANGE COUNTY/INLAND
EMPIRE TODAY. THE RUC MODEL FORECAST VALID 03/21Z SHOWS A -2 UBAR IN THE
500-300 MB LAYER CENTERED OVER CHINO HILLS AREA WITH ANOTHER/LARGER
DIVERGENT AREA OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST CENTERED NEAR 29N 117.5W.
CONNECT THE DOTS AND THE AREA TO THE WEST SHOULD DEFINE THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD. HENCE WILL HAVE HIGHER POPS OVER ORANGE COUNTY
TODAY THAN IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE HOWEVER THE
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE BEEN TENDING OFFSHORE PAST 24 HOURS OVER SAN
BERNARDINO/RIVERSIDE/ORANGE COUNTIES...AND FORECAST TO INCREASE TO -12
MB KSNA-KSLC THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY OFFSET COOLING THAT
FOLLOWED DRY FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES INLAND
EMPIRE TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAY MAXIMUMS AND KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY...OR THE WARMUP ONLY ACCENTUATES THE INSTABILITY IF THE
MODELS ARE TOO FAR WEST WITH CENTER OF COLD AIR. AM LEANING TOWARDS
CUTTING POPS THERE BACK TO 20 PERCENT TODAY...WILL HOLD FINAL DECISION
TO LAST MINUTE. FOR TONIGHT THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MAKE ITS TREK
INLAND AS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA/SONORA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS PLACES THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CALIFORNIA/MEXICO BORDER.
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL HAVE HIGHER THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION THERE AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...A THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LEAVE VARIABLE
CLOUD FORECAST TO COVER BRIEF  CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
TRANSITORY RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...MODELS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF BOTH THE
EJECTION OF THE FIRST LOW AND THE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD/REDEVELOPMENT
OF SECONDARY AND STRONGER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AND ITS SUBSEQUENT CYCLONIC TRACK ACROSS SW
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA TO NW SONORA THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ARIZONA.
ASSUMING A PERFECT FORECAST BY THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE MRF WHICH
IS THE ONLY ONE AVAILABLE AT FIELD OFFICES IN SUFFICIENT DETAIL BEYOND
72 HOURS...THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES DROP 160 METERS WITH A 5270 METER
CORE MOVING ACROSS NWSO SAN DIEGO COUNTY WARNING AREA...WITH THE JET
CORE AND THE GREATEST DIVERGENCE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SOUTH AND EAST.
A SLIGHT SHIFT W OR SW IN THE TRACK OF THE COLD AIR POOL WILL PULL THIS
AREA WESTWARD. THE PATTERN IS REMINISCENT OF THE APRIL 1 1999 HEAVY SNOW
EVENT THAT CAUSED 8 DEATHS/13 INJURIES FROM HYPOTHERMIA IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY AND RESULTED IN A MASSIVE SEARCH AND RESCUE MISSION ON BOTH SIDES
OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER TO SAVE ANOTHER 85-158 STRANDED PEOPLE. WILL
WORK UP A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND...WHICH MAY BE UPGRADE TO
WINTER STORM WATCH IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS/FORECASTERS AGREE. ANOTHER BUSY
WEEKEND.
SAN 376
.SAN...NONE ATTM...WILL ISSUE SPS ON UPCOMING STORM AROUND 031330Z.
BALFOUR
</PRE></TT></td>   ca
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST THU MAR 2 2000
A STORM MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OR NORTHWEST MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOCAL TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MARKS
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLDER AIR WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE TIMING AND POSITION
OF STORMS ERRATICALLY THIS WEEK. FORECASTERS MAY HAVE TO RELY ON
REAL TIME DATA (SATELLITE LOOPS...ACARS DATA...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS)
AND PERSONAL EXPERIENCE.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SYSTEM HAS RENDERED DETECTION OF
CIRCULATION CENTERS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIFFICULT THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES DETECTED A CYCLONIC SWIRL NEAR THE
BAY AREA...AND A SECOND CIRCULATION NEAR PT CONCEPTION. AVN AND RUC
MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THESE FEATURES. WILL TREND TOWARD THESE
SOLUTIONS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE OCEAN STREAMING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS...AN INDICATION THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 00Z ANALYSIS
SHOWED STRONG JET STREAM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 KTS WEST OF THE
VORTICITY CENTER NEAR SFO...SO THIS VORTEX WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AND BE WEST OF SAN DIEGO BY 12Z FRIDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
ACTUAL STORM TRACK WILL HEAVILY INFLUENCE WHAT KIND OF WEATHER WE
GET. ETA BRINGS THE STORM INTO NORTHERN BAJA WITH A COLD CORE ALOFT
(-24C AT 500 MB) AND STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE
BORDER. IN CONTRAST...THE AVN STALLS THE UPPER CLOSED UPPER LOW
FARTHER NORTH (WEST OF SAN DIEGO) AND KEEPS THE COLD CORE ALOFT
(-26C AT 50 MB) FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. THIS SOLUTION WOULD GIVE
US A BETTER CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE ETA SOLUTION.
ETA HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH DIGGING
SHORTWAVES TOO FAR SOUTH. BUT THE AVN VORTICITY FIELDS BEYOND 00Z
SATURDAY LOOK UNREALISTIC. SO I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION OF THE ETA AND AVN. THIS WILL BRING MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH
OF THE BORDER...BUT STILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOCAL AS WE WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
UNSTABLE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ONE OTHER ITEM WORTH NOTING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO...LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...AND
OROGRAPHICS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN ENHANCING MOUNTAIN
PRECIPITATION.
SURF WILL INCREASE OVER NIGHT AND HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.
SAN 3654
.SAN...NONE.
MOEDE
</PRE></TT></td>   ca
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000
STRATUS AND FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND SLOW TO BREAK UP THIS AM.
EXPECT LIGHT WEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH WEST COAST BREEZE DEVELOPING SOME CU INLAND TOWARD MY WESTERN
COUNTIES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR MY FA AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING PUBLIC ZONE
FORECAST.
MARINE...PGRAD DECREASING THIS AM AND WILL DECREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. BUOY 9
INDICATES WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND RUC/MESO ETA ALSO
INDICATING THIS TREND FOR THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES CONTINUE TO BE TRENDING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND WILL
CONTEMPLATE DROPPING FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT 11 AM SMOKE DISPERSION
UPDATE.
.MLB...FIRE WX WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...
AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
TROUTMAN
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
400 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY OVER SE GULF AND LOWER KEYS WITH
WINDS FROM DRY TO SMK NEAR CALM...WHILE MLR AND FWY REPORT W-NW
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY CURVING FROM
THE MIDDLE KEYS TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AGAIN.
NO 03/00Z RUNS OF THE ETA...NGM OR AVN WERE INGESTED BY EYW AWIPS...
RUC AND MESO-ETA ARE AVAILABLE. WITH LITTLE NEW DATA...WILL LEAN
TOWARD CURRENT FORECAST. GENERALLY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
SHOULD RETREAT SE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES EASTERN GULF. ANOTHER 24 HOURS OF PERSISTENCE LOOKS GOOD
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES AND NO RAIN CHANCES.
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT TONIGHT BUT MAY SEE ENOUGH BREEZE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW A TAD HIGHER.
MARINE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL
SATURDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM THE SW AS RIDGE MOVES SE.
PRELIMINARY #S
EYW UB 080/063 081/068 080 000
.EYW...NONE.
JEB
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
545 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000
UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH JAX...HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FIRE
WX WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EXPECT RH TO FALL TO 35
PERCENT FOR UP TO 4 HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING AND WESTERLY TRAJECTORY
COMBINE TO DRY THE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...RH NEAR
CRITICAL VALUES ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT EXPECT LIMITED DURATIONS.
TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OFFSHORE MAINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING AND THEN STALL OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. A WESTERLY FLOW WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN TODAY...LIKELY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY...A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH GA AND
SC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CWA BRINGING
A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A GREATER COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/PVA MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO REACH GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT N OF THE CWA. FAVORABLE 700 MB VERTICAL
VELOCITIES AND MINUS 1 TO MINUS 3 LIFTED INDICIES SUGGESTS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.
A JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY WITH RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT IN FAVORABLE LOCATION. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
MAY OFFSET THE THREAT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE EVENING.
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY TO NEAR CLIMO.
EXTENDED...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA'S WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...BEGINNING ANOTHER STRING OF
WARM/DRY DAYS.
MARINE...THE LATEST TREND FROM BUOY 41009 INDICATES INCREASING SEAS
TO AROUND 4 FEET WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND. WILL FOLLOW RUC2 AND
INDICATE WINDS DECREASING TODAY AS WEAK FRONT REACHES CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND WILL SPLIT COASTAL ZONES EAST/WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW. GIVEN CURRENT OBS AT BUOYS 009/010...WILL
BEGIN WITH SCEC BEYOND 20 NM. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA
MAY BE REQUIRED.
FIRE WX...EXPECT DRY WESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL
THROUGH THE 50S AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MAX TEMPS AOA 80
DEGREES...35 MIN RH WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN MANY AREAS...BUT FOR
MINIMAL DURATIONS.
THANKS TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE FOR COORDINATION.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BE 080/057 078/053 074 013
MCO BE 082/058 078/055 077 003
MLB BE 081/059 079/056 078 003
.MLB...FIRE WX WATCH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE...VOLUSIA...SEMINOLE...
AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
JMB/SPRATT
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
910 PM EST THU MAR 02 2000
WV LOOP SHOWS UPR LOW OVR SRN NEW ENG AT THIS HOUR AND SHOWING SIGNS
OF MOVG EWD. THE BROAD AREA OF -SN DRIVEN BY COLD NWLY FLOW ACRS LK
ONT ALSO LOOKS TO BE QUICKLY RELEASING IT/S GRIP AS SYS PULLS OUT
AND GIVES WAY TO LOWERING SUBS INVERSION. RADAR RETURNS ALREADY
DISSIPATING IN WRN ZONES WITH MERELY A FEW FLURRIES LEFTOVER. WE
BECAME A LTL NERVOUS EARLIER THIS EVE AS ENHANCED BELT OF SNOW
INFLUENCED BY DEF ZONE TO NW OF UPR LOW SCOOTED SWD INTO ROC AREA.
THIS NOW SHOWG GOOD SIGNS OF LIFTING OUT TOO. LATEST RUC AND ERLYR
RUNS OF ETA SHOW MOISTURE NUDGING EWD WITH DECENT DRYING 12Z FRI AND
BYND. WL ALLOW ADVSRY THAT WAS IN NRN ONEIDA EXPIRE ON SCHED AS A
RESULT OF FCST TRENDS.
MDLS ALWAYS MOVE COLD NWLY FLOW SNOW EVENTS OUT TOO QUICKLY...SO FOR
MOST AREAS WL ILLUSTRATE A GENERAL DECREASE IN THE SNOW DOWN TO
LINGERING SHSN OR FLURRIES BY DAYBREAK. HAD SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF
3-4 INCH AMTS FROM TODAY...BUT ADDL CALLS TO VALLEY AND HILLTOP
LOCATIONS DIDN/T YIELD MUCH CLOSE TO THAT. ROUGHLY AN INCH AND A
HALF HERE AT THE ARPT. STILL FEEL SOME PARTS OF THE WRN MHWK...SUSQ
AND CATSKILL RGN WL ACCUMULATE THRU MIDNIGHT.
MADE A SMALL ADJ TO 2ND PD TO BLEND WITH MY TRENDING OVERNIGHT BY
TWEEKING SCT WORDING BACK TO A CHC FOR SHSN FRIDAY AS NWLY FLOW S/WV
RIPS ACRS CWFA...BUT LACKS SIG MOISTURE.
TEMPS OVERNIGHT ON TARGET.
.BGM...NONE
BREWSTER
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EST FRI MAR 3 2000
AN AREA OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CAE CWA
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. SOME FAIRLY THICK CI WITH VIRGA
PRESENT. CAE 88D IS PICKING UP SOME OF THIS VIRGA. RUCII AND ETA
SHOW MOISTURE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. STILL LIKE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
RUCII KEEPS SURFACE RIDGE MAINLY OVER PIEDMONT SOUTH CAROLINA WITH
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE. SO DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGES.
.CAE...NONE.
TTH
</PRE></TT></td>   sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
225 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000
18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF
ILLINOIS. SOUTH PART BEING AFFECTED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
CENTERED IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.  RADAR RETURNS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
SHOWN AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP SOUTH OF I-72.  PRECIP HAS HAD A DEVIL
OF A TIME TRYING TO GET NORTH TO SPI...WITH ONLY A COUPLE FLURRIES
AND ICE PELLETS THERE.  CALLS TO COOP OBSERVERS AND SHERIFFS
DEPARTMENTS INDICATE AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF SNOW AROUND MORRISONVILLE
(SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY)...WITH OTHER AREAS ALTERNATING BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW.  LOW LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILLINOIS HAS
FINALLY TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE PRECIPITATION...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND INDICATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE GONE
BY ZONE TIME. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE WHETHER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MENTIONED THIS EVENING.
OTHER THAN THAT...MAIN PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS THE DEPARTURE OF THE
CLOUDS THIS EVENING...EXTENT OF THE WARMUP EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK...THEN THREAT OF RAIN/STORMS MIDWEEK.
CLOUD COVER IN IL HAS BEEN TRYING TO SCATTER OUT NORTH OF I-74...AND
WAS CLEAR NORTH OF I-80. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RUC 60% RH FIELDS.
THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL BE PULLING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY...SO SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY LATE EVENING
IN OUR CWA. EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE THEY MAY HANG ON
LONGER...PER RUC GUIDANCE.
ALL MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF TAKING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.  AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WORK ACROSS THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION DURING THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
A NICE WARMUP.  FAN/FWC GUIDANCE FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH 36
HOURS...THEN FWC WARMS UP MORE AS RIDGE DRIFTS ACROSS.  WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE FOR SUNDAY...GOING WITH THE CURRENT MID 60S...AND GO
NEAR GUIDANCE BEFORE THAT.
IN THE EXTENDED...MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH RIDGE ON TOP OF
US.  WE THEN SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS.  THINK THE MANUAL PROGS ARE TOO FAST...IN
BRINGING COLD FRONT TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PROBABLY SHOULD BE CLOSER TO A IRK-SGF LINE...WHICH WOULD
KEEP US WARM FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.  WILL NOT GO TOO OVERBOARD WITH
TEMPS...BUT WILL GO ABOVE FMR NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WILL
STICK WITH GOING FORECAST OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY...
BUT MOST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY COULD BE INTERESTING IN
ANY CASE.
PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORD ONLY.
SPI UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000
PIA UU 030/060 039/066 045 72000
DEC UU 030/059 039/066 046 72000
CMI UU 028/059 039/066 046 72000
MTO UU 030/061 037/066 044 72600
LWV UU 033/061 037/067 045 72400
.ILX...
IL...NONE.
GEELHART/KETCHAM
</PRE></TT></td>   il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
530 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000
ZONES ARE GOING TO NEED AN EARLY UPDATE THIS MORNING. DRY SLOT IS
SURGING EWD ACROSS NW LA...AND LOW CLOUDS TO THE NORTH ARE NOT
COMING SOUTH QUITE AS FAST AS THE RUC EARLIER INDICATED. NEED TO
ADJUST SKY WORDING IN SOME OF THE GROUPS...PARTICULARLY ALONG
I-20...TO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING
CLOUDS. WILL ALSO BACK THE 30 POPS IN THE EAST DOWN TO 20 BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.    05
.SHV...NONE.
</PRE></TT></td>   la