WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
925 PM MST TUE FEB 16 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC AND ETA APPARENTLY MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH INCOMING                
SYSTEM...AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. BOTH ETA AND RUC SHOW DEEP MOISTURE              
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL 12Z WED...THEN ONLY OVER NORTHEAST UTAH AND                  
EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. WAA ALSO INDICATED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT            
AND LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AS A RESULT. THESE TWO                  
FACTORS COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING NOT                
POINTING TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST           
AREA TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL BACK OFF LIKELY WORDING IN COLORADO           
MOUNTAINS AND WILL REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL COLORADO            
VALLEYS. SOUTH LACKS MOISTURE SO WILL REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR           
WESTERN SAN JUANS. WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW SORT OUT SNOW AND BLOWING             
SNOW ADVISORY AS STILL WAITING FOR THE REMAINING MODEL SUITE TO                 
ARRIVE.                                                                         
NL                                                                              
NNNN  co                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1043 AM CST WED FEB 17 1999                                                     
PESKY LIGHT SNOW HERE AND THERE TO BE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS UPDATE                
ALONG WITH TEMPS AND CLOUDS.                                                    
NICE VORT MAX THAT INITIALIZED OVER CEN NEB AT 12Z HAS NOW PROGRESSED           
ESE TO SE NEB AT 1630Z.  BEST LIFT WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM OVER EXTREME           
SW IA AND POINTS SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY 12Z RUC.  A LITTLE SNOW FALLING FROM IT HAS               
REDUCED VISBYS TO MVFR CAT IN SW IA.  DEEPER CLOUDS SLIDING SE AS               
DISPLAYED ON VISIBLE SAT LOOP AND 12Z RUC. RUC MOVES BEST LIFT SE OUT           
OF IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON INTO MO.  FARTHER NORTH...A FEW LOWER                  
CIGS/VSBYS INDICATE A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN NRN IA.                 
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW MAY MAKE IT INTO SE CORNER OF CWA...BUT                    
CERTAINLY NOT MEASURABLE.                                                       
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER STATE AND IN ERN NE/SE SD.  A MINOR BREAK           
OVER WRN IA ATTM...BUT IT SHOULD BE PRETTY INCONSEQUENTIAL FOR THE              
MOST PART AND NOT EFFECT TEMPS TOO MUCH.  ON THAT NOTE...FCST HIGHS             
MAY BE A BIT WARM CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER             
STATE UNDER THE RIDGE.  THUS WILL NUDGE THEM DOWN A BIT.                        
UPDATE TO BE OUT BY 1715Z.                                                      
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
NNNN  ia                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
952 AM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
WILL BE UPDATING FORECAST SOON FOR WORDING AND OTHER CHANGES. FORECAST          
PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTN IS WAVE ALG FNT MOVING UP FROM THE TN VLY INTO            
SRN/CNTL APPLS AND IF ANY RAIN WILL PUSH INTO SEKY.                             
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED ON WAVE ON FNT OVER SE TN MOVING INTO SW VA AT          
1445Z VIA RADAR AND SAT. CD FNT STRETCHED SW INTO SRN LA WITH ANOTHER           
WAVE DOWN THERE. RADAR COMPOSITE LOOPS FROM GULF COAST STATES AND TN            
SHOW MORE RAIN HEADING NE ALG FNT AND 12Z RUC SHOWS SOME MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE SCRAPING FAR SE KY THIS AFTN. GIVEN THAT THE LOW LVL                
FLOW/BELOW 900 MB WILL STAY IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE INTO AFTN WILL PUT             
CHANCE LIGHT RAIN FOR FAR EAST ZONES FOR THE AFTN. LOW CLDS WILL BREAK          
UP SOMEWHAT IN THE FAR NW/SW ZONES THIS AFTN AS SFC HI POKES IN BUT             
WILL WORD AS BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE...LATE. FOR THE CWA IN                
BETWEEN WILL KEEP CLOUDY...WITH SPOTTY DRIZZLE AND FOG. WILL WORD               
TEMPS AS STEADY IN THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE WEST AS CLOUDS THIN               
SOMEWHAT BY LATE AFTN.                                                          
SHOULD HAVE AN UPDATE OUT TOWARD 1530Z.                                         
THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL           
FORECASTS ARE FOUND WITHIN PRODUCT SDFZFPKY                                     
JKL 48/30/46 220                                                                
LOZ 48/28/48 200                                                                
WHP/09                                                                          
NNNN  ky                                                                        

SYNOPTIC EXPLANATION/FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
945 AM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
FRONT STILL MOVING SLOWLY EAST THRU W VA THIS MORNING. PREFNTL SHOWRS           
ARE ALSO MOVING SLOWLY E THRU THE BALTO AND WASH METRO AREAS. RUC AND           
ETAX SHOW THE MAIN VVS DURING THE MORNING THEN DISSOLVING SOMEWHAT              
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TNT. A LOW ALREADY EVIDENT          
IN THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOVE NE INTO WSTRN NC BEFORE MOVING INTO THE MID         
ATL TNT WITH OCCSNL RAIN A SAFE BET.                                            
TMPS WILL BE HIT OR MISS TDY WITH BRKS IN THE CLDS DURING THE ERLY              
AND MID AFTN. PLAYED THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH TEMPS BTWN AREAS THAT          
SEE MORE RAIN VS AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN.                                       
.WBC...NONE.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
NNNN  md                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 PM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS FAIRLY SHARP SFC TROF OVR SCNTRL LK SUP IN               
GENERAL CAD/CYC FLOW OVR GRT LKS BEHIND DEPARTING UPR VORTEX TO E.              
MQT 88D VWP INDICATES NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BACKING SLOWLY MORE             
NWLY DURG DAY AS SFC TROF HAS LIFTED SLOWLY NWD...AND SN BANDS ON               
RADAR SCREEN HAVE SHIFTED MORE INTO ALGER COUNTY DURG DAY AS                    
REFLECTIVITIES HAVE FALLEN (NOW MAINLY 20DBZ RETURNS WITH ISOLD >28DBZ).        
12Z RAOBS AND ETA BUFKIT FCST SDNGS SUG INVRN HGT IN 3K-5K RANGE                
WITH H85-LK DELTA-TS ARND 16-18C. EVEN THOUGH LK EFFECT SN CHART                
SUGS 1-2"/ 6 HR ACCUMS FOR THESE CONDITIONS...NMRS RPRTS FM KEWEENAW            
INDICATE SN CAME DOWN AT A 1"/HR RATE MUCH OF DAY AND EVEN WITH MORE            
UNFVRBL TRAJECTORY. WENT WITH WRNG EARLY AFTN THERE. APRNTLY LO LVL             
CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROF HAS BEEN ENUF TO PRODUCE TOTALS MORE             
IN LINE WITH LK ENHANCED. HOWEVER...LATEST VIS PIX INDICATE                     
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OVR WRN LK IN NWLY FLOW ON S SIDE OF SFC TROF.              
LATEST RPRTS FM KEWEENAW/ONT/IWD SHOW SN INTENSITIES DIMINISHING AS             
BACK EDGE OF CLD OVR WRN LK HAS SHIFTED TO THE SE.                              
LATEST RUC AND 12Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SFC-H85 CYC FLOW            
WL DIMINISH DURG OVRNGT AS UPR LO CONTS TO NE. THUS XPCT ANY LK                 
ENHANCEMENT TO END DURG EVNG. HOWEVER...GENERAL NLY FLOW WITH H85               
THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM PROGGED TO LINGER. SO WL GO WITH ACCUMS OVRNGT            
MORE IN LINE WITH LK EFFECT SN CHART IN AREAS WITH FVRBL TRAJECTORY             
FOR FCST NNW WIND AND DROP ALL HEADLINES. CONSIDERABLE LO LVL DRYING            
OBSVD OVR WRN LK SUP AND WEAKENING LO LVL FLOW WL RESTRICT LES OVR              
IWD-ONTONAGON AREAS. WL GO A FEW DEGREES ABV MOS TNGT FOR MIN TEMPS             
GIVEN FLOW OFF LK SUP BUT ABV FWC POPS IN LES AREAS.                            
AS UPR LO SHIFTS EWD TMRW...UPR FLOW INTO FRI WL BCM MORE CONFLUENT             
WNWLY...AND MODELS SHOW A GRDL INCRS IN PRES WITH MORE ACYC NNELY               
FLOW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WL REMAIN LO ENUF TO KEEP DELTA-T IN 13-16C            
RANGE...LWRG INVRN HGTS AND DRYING DEPICTED ON RH-TIME SECTIONS WL              
NEGATIVELY IMPACT LES. MOST PERSISTENT -SHSN WL LINGER IN AREAS FVRD            
IN NNELY FLOW. MOS MAX TEMPS LOOK OKAY...BUT MINS FOR THU NGT APPEAR            
A BIT LO AGAIN FOR AREAS NR LK SUP.                                             
KC                                                                              
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 AM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                     
SAT LOOPS SHOW COMMA CLD ASSOCIATED WITH UPR CYC CIRCULATION APRNT              
NR ERN CWA GRDLY MOVG NEWD WITH COLDER CLD TOPS SHIFTING AWAY FM CWA            
AS WELL. SHARP JET MAX MOVG ENEWD ON SE FLANK OF UPR LO AS DEPICTED             
ON WV LOOP HELPING TO CARRY SYS INTO CAN. ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVR LK              
HURON WITH FAIRLY SHARP SFC TROF HANGING BACK ACRS CWA. NMRS BRKS IN            
CLD NOTED SRN CWA AND MN/WI ACCOMPANYING LO LVL DRY AIRMASS.                    
ALTHOUGH WV LOOP SHOWS ANOTHER JET MAX DROPPING SEWD ON BACK SIDE OF            
UPR LO...THIS JET HAS A MORE SHEARED OUT APPEARANCE. 00Z NGM APPEARS            
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SECOND JET MAX. RECENT RADAR LOOPS/SFC              
RPRTS INDICATE A GENERAL DCRS IN REFLECTIVITIES LAST COUPLE OF                  
HRS... BUT CMX INDICATED A PD OF MDT-HVY SN AND 88D STILL SHOWING               
SOME REFLECTIVITY > 28DBZ OVR ERN MQT/WRN ALGER COUNTIES. VSBL PIX              
INDICATE BAND FM JUST N OF P59 INTO ERN MQT COUNTY WITH UPSTREAM                
CONDITIONING OFF LK NIPIGON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT               
EWD  WITH TIME...COINCIDENT WITH BACKING OF WIND TO A MORE 340                  
DEGREE ORIENTATION AS OBSVD ON 88D VWP AND FCST ETA 6KM H95 WINDS               
SHIFTING BEST LO LVL CNVGC EWD. WINDS IN SFC-8K LYR NRLY                        
UNIDIRECTIONAL AT 15-20 KTS. 12Z H85 TEMPS SUG DELTA-T IN 16-17C                
RANGE. 12Z LOCAL SDNGS SHOW INVRN HGTS IN 3K-5K RANGE.                          
MAIN QUESTION FOR TDAY IS EXTENT OF SN AND HOW TO HANDLE ANY                    
HEADLINES...INCLUDING GOING WRNG FOR MQT COUNTY. LATEST RUC MODEL               
CONFIRMS EARLIER MODELS FCST THAT MAIN UPR LO AND ITS ASSOCIATED                
MSTR/UVV WL CONT SHIFTG NEWD TDAY. THUS LK ENHANCED EVENT WL CONT TO            
SHIFT TO A PURE LES. FOR OBSVD CONDITIONS...LES CHART SHOWS 1-3"...             
BUT LO LVL FLOW TO REMAIN QUITE CYC TDAY WITH SECOND JET MAX DIGGING            
BEHIND UPR LO TO MAINTAIN SFC TROFFINESS. NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS             
SFC-4K PROGGED TO BACK ONLY SLOWLY. ETA 6KM H95 WINDS INDICATE                  
PERSISTENCE OF SGNFT LO LVL CNVGC IN FAR ERN MQT COUNTY AND MAINLY              
WRN ALGER COUNTY THRU DAY. SINCE REFLECTIVITES >28 DBZ STILL OBSVD              
IN THE ERN MORE POPULATED PARTS OF MQT COUNTY...WL CONT WRNG THERE              
FOR TIME BEING. WL GO ABV LK EFFECT CHART NUMBERS AND ADVY FOR                  
ALGER COUNTY...MAINLY WRN PART...GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF LO LVL CYC                
FLOW/HIER OBSVD REFLECTIVITY/ SGFT FCST LO LVL CNVGC AND                        
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/PRECONDITIONING OFF LK NIPIGON IN UPWIND                    
TRAJECTORY. ALTHOUGH A FEW DECENT SN RPRTS HAVE COME IN FM                      
KEWEENAW...WL NOT POST ADVY THERE GIVEN LESS FVRBL LO LVL FLOW                  
DIRECTION.                                                                      
KC                                                                              
NNNN  mi                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR SOUTHEAST MI                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1025 AM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                     
BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW (FLURRIES) AND DRIZZLE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF             
CWA ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DIMINISHING THIS MORNING.  EARLY MORNING               
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT BANDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH                      
GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THAT AREA.  LATEST RUC SHOWS WINDS                
TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.              
THEREFORE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND OF PRECIP.  STILL CAN'T TOTALLY             
RULE OUT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA.  VISIBLE PICTURES SHOWING A FEW BREAKS IN               
THE OVERCAST...SO WILL LIKELY REWORD MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS.                   
BT#6                                                                            
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1158 AM CST WED FEB 17 1999                                                     
LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER                   
NERN AND ERN KS/XTRM WCNTRL MO...ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER THAT               
15Z RUC HAD ANALYZED NEAR SLN. LATEST IR SATELLITE SHOWS COOLING                
CLOUD TOPS IN VCNTY OF TOP...WHERE 1SM -SN WAS REPORTED AT 16Z                  
AND FROM MKC TO 75 MILES SW OF MKC. MKC REPORTED 1/2SM SN AT                    
17Z. NORTH/SOUTH CROSS SECTION FROM LATEST ETA INDICATES CSI                    
FROM ABOUT 750 TO 500MB. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DYNAMIC LIFT                  
FROM PVA WAS PRODUCING CONVECTIVE PCPN. 700MB TEMPS AROUND                      
MINUS 10 AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND ZERO WAS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE PCPN              
TO FALL AS SNOW.                                                                
BASED THIS UPDATE ON 09Z RUC AS 15Z RUC LOST CONTINUITY WITH VORT               
CNTR. 09Z RUC MOVES VORT MAX ALONG THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES OF CWA            
AND BELIEVE THAT MOST PCPN WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF VORT             
TRACK. BASED ON THE ABOVE...I INCLUDED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR -SN FOR             
THE NRN COUNTIES OF CWA. PCPN TYPE COULD BE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW DUE              
FOR THOSE COUNTIES FURTHEST TO THE EAST...DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING OF             
SFC TEMPS. IF PCPN IS BRIEFLY HEAVY...PCPN TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE             
SNOW. I DO NOT XPCT ANY SIG ACCUM.                                              
D.STEINMETZ                                                                     
NNNN  mo                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
845 AM MST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST IN FALLON COUNTY BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE         
NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS SATELLITE FOG LOOP SHOWS BACK EDGE OF FOG MOVING           
RAPIDLY EAST. PACIFIC SYSTEM SPLITTING AS MAIN ENERGY MOVES INTO WYOMING        
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT JUST INTO WESTERN MONTANA. WINDS HAVE NOT              
DEVELOPED AS YET AND WILL ADJUST IN ZONES ACCORDINGLY. PRECIPITATION            
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA PER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL LEAVE ALONE.        
NO NEW DATA AS YET BUT GOING ON TFX SOUNDING AND RUC DATA WILL ADJUST           
TEMPS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES MAINLY WEST ZONES. CHANGES WILL BE MADE            
THIS PACKAGE. THORICHT                                                          
BIL JB 039/026 040/023 040 58421                                                
LVM .. 041/023 040/... ... 58421                                                
HDN .. 040/022 040/... ... 58421                                                
MLS .. 042/023 040/018 ... 58431                                                
4BQ .. 042/023 040/... ... 58431                                                
BHK .. 040/021 038/... ... 58431                                                
SHR JB 042/020 038/015 040 58441                                                
NNNN  mt                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
230 PM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...VERY COMPLEX SITUATION. THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE                 
APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF NY                    
HARBOR. ALL THREE SYNOPTIC MODELS PICK UP ON THIS WHILE THE 15Z RUC             
DOES NOT. THUS...BASED ON OBS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS EXPECT THE WEAK               
LOW TO TRACK NE TOWARDS BOSTON BY MORNING. THIS CAUSES THE COLD AIR             
AND STRATUS TO SLIDE BACK ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.                                
PCPN IS VERY LIGHT ATTM. WILL CALL IT MAINLY DRIZZLE WITH LIGHT RAIN            
MORE LIKELY AS WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINAS BY 12Z. AVN IS                 
FASTER WITH THIS LOW MOVING UP THE COAST. WITH THE MODELS VERY                  
DIVERGENT BY FRIDAY EVENING.                                                    
QPF DIFFERS ALSO BETWEEN MODELS. WILL NOT INCLUDE HEAVY AT TIMES AS             
EXPECTING 1/4 TO 1/2 INCHES. HEAVIEST IN EASTERN SECTIONS.                      
LONGER TERM...NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON LATE THURSDAY             
WITH THE SYSTEMATIC LIKE ERROR SEEN IN THE NGM PLACING THE LOW                  
CENTER TOO FAR NORTH IN MISSOURI. ETA/AVN SOLUTION OF LOW WEST OF               
MEMPHIS MORE LIKELY.                                                            
THIS LEAVES RIDGING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY.  ETA AND AVN WAVES              
ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO ALLOW FOR PARTLY           
SUNNY CONDITIONS.                                                               
LONG TERM...LOW MOVES TO NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z SAT. THIS IS               
VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z MRF RUN POSITION. THUS...THINKING THAT THE                
AVN/MRF HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON SYSTEM FINALLY. LATEST ENSEMBLE             
DATA FOR SATURDAY ALSO LOOK VERY CONSISTENT. 12Z RUN OF THE NAVY                
NOGAPS GSM IS ALSO SHOWING A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...JUST FASTER THAN             
MRF. OLD ECMWF IS SOUTH OF THE MRF TRACK...BUT STILL HAS COAST                  
DEVELOPMENT. WITH NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROF...EXPECT TURN UP THE                 
COAST AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW.                                               
AS FOR COLD AIR...QUICK LOOK AT THE MRF 850 TO 1000 MB THICKNESS                
LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BE RIGHT ON THE CRITICAL THICKNESS WITH THE 850 MB             
TEMPS COLD ENOUGH (-6 C) TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC            
FLOW WILL PULL IN THE COLD AIR NEEDED TO SUPPORT SNOW. MRF QPF IS               
AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH.                                                          
CONCERN WOULD BE FOR THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLIDING OUT TO THE SOUTH. WITH            
MINIMAL PCPN.  BASED ON ALL I'VE SEEN...THINK THAT THIS WILL BE THE             
MOST SNOW NYC AND LI HAS SEEN SINCE APR 96.                                     
WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING SPECIAL WITH THIS PACKAGE...EXCEPT TO UP TO             
LIKELY THE CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SAT.                                              
MARINE...TIDES ARE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1 1/2 FT ABOVE.  DON'T EXPECT ANY            
SIG PROBLEMS AS NE FLOW FOR FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN                
PREVIOUSLY FCST. WILL KEEP THE SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE THURSDAY              
FOR NOW.                                                                        
COORDINATED WITH TAUNTON AND PHILLY. THANKS.                                    
.NYC...NONE.                                                                    
TONGUE                                                                          
NNNN  ny                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1010 AM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO              
THE MISSISSIPPI.  MORNING ILN SOUNDING SHOWING SHALLOW LAYER OF                 
MOISTURE TO ABOUT 900 MB.  03Z MESOETA PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW                   
MOISTURE STAYING TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS A              
RESULT WILL GO WITH CLOUDY WORDING ACROSS FA.  12Z RUC SHOWS THE                
BEST DRYING PUSHING INTO CVG BY 00Z..SO WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY                   
THERE.  AS A RESULT OF MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUSLY               
THOUGHT WILL LOWER TEMPS TO JUST A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT              
CONDITIONS.  THIS ALSO LINES UP WELL WITH LAMP OUTPUT.                          
WATER VAPOR SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER MID MS VLY SLOWLY MOVING                  
TOWARDS FA.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE                    
MODELS.  THE 12Z RUC AND 03Z MESOETA TRIES TO PUMP OUT SOME PRECIP              
OVER NRN IN/SRN MI AND 00Z ETA PRECIP FIELDS BECOMES MORE SQUIRLY               
BY 00Z THIS AFT.  LAF REPORTED FLURRIES EARLIER THIS AM SO WILL                 
THROUGH IN FLURRY WORDING IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.                                 
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
 TIPTON                                                                         
NNNN  oh                                                                        

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
820 PM PST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT STORMS INLAND               
WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH             
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COASTAL               
EDDY WILL BRING MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS             
AND FOG THROUGH FRIDAY. A GULF OF ALASKA STORM MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH              
SOUTH TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY              
AND EARLY MONDAY.                                                               
A NUMBER OF MINOR UPDATES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE THIS EVENING. DURING           
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO                
DIRECT STORMS INLAND WELL TO THE N OF SRN CA WITH ASSOCD HIGH CLOUDS            
STREAMING ACROSS SRN CA. AT LWR LVLS A DEVELOPING CSTL EDDY WL RESULT           
IN MORE EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN CSTL SXNS.            
THE 00Z RUC LOW LVL WIND FIELD FORECASTS AND 12Z AND 18Z ETA MEAN SEA           
LVL PRESSURE FIELD FORECASTS ALL SHOW A CSTL EDDY DEVELOPING                    
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY IN RAMSDIS IS SUGGESTIVE OF              
THIS AS WELL. 00Z RAOBS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARINE INVERSION             
NR 1500 FT. WITH HEIGHTS ALF QUITE HIGH AND CHANGING LTL OVERNIGHT...           
EXPECT ONLY MINOR GRADAUAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR OVERNIGHT TO             
AROUND 2000 FT THU MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR                
STRATUS TO PUSH INTO THE VLYS OF SAN COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE BY            
MORNING. WITH HEIGHTS ALF BEGINNING TO LWR A LTL THU NIGHT AND WITH             
ETA MSLP FORECASTS ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EDDY DEVELOPMENT...EXPECT           
ADDITIONAL DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING TO AT              
LEAST 2500 FT OR POSSIBLY A LTL DEEPER. IF THIS DEEPENING TREND                 
DEVELOPS...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LWR CSTL/VLY HIGH TEMPERATURES A            
LTL FOR FRI.                                                                    
SAN BB 0000                                                                     
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
NNNN  ca                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
940 PM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AND 88D SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAS                  
STOPPED SNOWING.  THE EXCEPTION ARE MULTI BANDS SETUP IN THE NNW                
FLOW OVER THE KEWEENAW...EASTERN MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.  THE             
MOST PERSISTENT OF THESE HAVE BEEN OVER ALGER COUNTY.  88D RETURNS              
HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND THE PAST FEW HOURS.  00Z RUC BOUNDARY              
LAYER WINDS FCST HAS WIND TURNING BACK TO THE NNE OVERNIGHT. THIS               
COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REFORMING IN MORE OF A                   
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION.  WILL THUS STILL MENTION SCT -SHSN OVER ALL            
COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR.  CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW TEMPS AT A              
PACE TO BE A LITTLE BLO CURRENT MIN FCST...WILL LOWER MOST AREAS                
ABOUT 5 DEGREES.  WINDS HAVE ALSO LET UP...WILL MAKE A FEW                      
ADJUSTMENTS.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                         
LULOFS                                                                          
NNNN  mi                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
915 PM EST WED FEB 17 1999                                                      
DISC: NEXT S/W IN SERIES MOVING NE THRU SRN APPALACHIANS AND                    
SPREADING -RA INTO SRN ZONES. TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND NOT                      
GOING ANYHWERE OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE                  
NIGHT INTO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERN SRN ZONES WITH THE RUC                     
DIRECTING AN AREA OF ABT .50-.75 INCH AT THE SHORE. DEW POINTS ARE              
RUNNING HIGH AND WE'LL SEE SOME FOG IN RAIN FREE CALM AREAS...DOWN              
TO ABT 1/2 MILE IN SPOTS.                                                       
NEXT LOW OVER MO BY THU NIGHT WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME TAKING UP                  
RESIDENCE OVER ANY PARTICULAR SPOT TOO LONG WITH FAST PROGRESSIVE               
FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.                                       
ENJOY...                                                                        
.PHI...NONE. SCA MAY BE NEEDED HEADLINED.                                       
SEE YA                                                                          
EBERWINE                                                                        
NNNN  pa                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1030 AM EST THU FEB 18 1999                                                     
VERY BUSY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS            
AND TSTMS. AXIS OF MAIN WX NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE PALM BEACH            
COUNTY AROUND THE S TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO S OF THE KEYS. WX S OF              
THE KEYS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN WHILE MOST OF THE THREAT OVER              
THE MAINLAND HAS PASSED. TECHNICAL PROBLEMS WITH UPPER AIR HAVE BEEN            
SOLVED AND WE SHOULD HAVE A LATE SOUNDING SHORTLY. HAVENT LOOKED AT             
MUCH DATA BUT DOESNT LOOK LIKE MUCH ACTIVITY OVER LAND TODAY.                   
HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE RUC STILL SHOWS US            
TO BE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO A SHOWER OR TSTM IS NOT               
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...JUST MINIMAL SUPPORT UNLESS WE GET             
A SEABREEZE LATER TODAY. UPDATED FORECAST FORTHCOMING.                          
AS FAR AS THE COASTALS...CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO HEADLINES AND                
WORDING.                                                                        
.MIA...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.                                        
CARROLL                                                                         
NNNN  fl                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
900 AM EST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD... WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN-UP THE WORDING.             
AFTER LOOKING AT THE RUC AND MM5 EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE       
TO MOVE INTO THE FL BIEND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WASH OUT AS DRIER       
AIR MOVES IN. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY EVE BUT HAS             
LITTLE MOISTURE.                                                                
JOHNSON                                                                         
NNNN  fl                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
955 AM EST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK NE FLOW OVER ERN KY WITH HI PRS RIDGING           
IN FM THE GTLKS INTO WRN KY. VIS SAT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW CLDS                 
HANGING TOUGH IN ERN KY WITH BREAKS SHOWING UP IN A FEW SPOTS. 850              
ANALYSIS SHOWS A THERMAL TROF IN ERN KY WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED A            
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WITH INVERSION ABOVE. HIGH CLDS SPILLING IN           
FROM THE WEST AND A WEAK NE FLOW THIS AFTN MAY KEEP THE LO CLDS IN A            
BIT LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ALTHOUGH 12Z RUC DOES CLEAR OUT THE CLDS            
BY 18Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND MAY SEND UPDATE FOR AFTN              
PERIOD IF LOW CLOUDS HANG ON TO LOWER MAXES.                                    
WHP                                                                             
NNNN  ky                                                                        

SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
931 AM CST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SPS TO ABI TO SJT. VIS SAT SHOW LOW CLDS AND            
FOG OVER MUCH OF FA. EXPECT FOG TO LIFT AND SKY TO BECOME SCT BY                
NOON.  WV LOOP SHOWS S/WV MOVING INTO AR. LACK OF MSTR RETURN IN LOW-           
MID LVLS WILL PREVENT ANY SHRA WITH FROPA THIS EVENING. PW ACROSS               
REGION RUNNING AT 0.3 TO 0.4 INCHES. RUC MODEL TAKES FRONT THROUGH FA           
FROM 23Z TO 04Z...AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLN. ONLY CHANGES TO               
FCST...TAKE OUT LOW CLDS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD.          
13                                                                              
LCH 71/46 69/44 68 0000                                                         
LFT 70/46 67/42 67 0000                                                         
AEX 70/43 68/41 67 0000                                                         
BPT 74/46 70/44 69 0000                                                         
NNNN  la                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 AM EST THU FEB 18 1999                                                     
LATEST 88DS/SFC OBS SHOW PERSISTENT -SHSN NR LK SUP FM MN ARROWHEAD             
THRU CWA TO KANJ WITH GENERAL LGT NLY FLOW OVR LK SUP OUT OF SFC-H85            
THERMAL TROF ACRS SRN ONTARIO. GREAT MAJORITY OF RADAR                          
REFLECTIVITIES BLO 20 DBZ. 12Z GRB/APX SDNGS INDICATE INVRN 3K-4K               
FEET WITH DELTA-T BTWN INVRN BASE AND LK SUP IN 15-17 RANGE. WV LOOP            
AND H5 RAOBS INDICATE PRESENCE OF SUBTLE SHRTWV OVR SW ONTARIO...AND            
THIS SYS APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SN A BIT. 00Z NGM AND 03Z MESOETA              
FCST A BIT OF H7 UVV AT F12 OVR WRN LK SUP. 12Z INL/YPL SDNGS BEHIND            
SHRTWV SHOW A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE WITH SFC-BASED INVRNS...AND SFC             
DWPTS OVR SW ONTARIO AND NRN MN IN -10 TO -20 RANGE. LATEST IR SAT              
LOOP INDICATES SOME OF THIS DRY AIR IS ADVECTING EWD ACRS WRN LK SUP            
WITH BACK EDGE OF LO CLD MOVG STEADILY SEWD TOWARD IWD-ONT. THIS                
MOTION CONSISTENT WITH ESEWD MOTION OF SW ONTARIO SHRTWV AS FCST BY             
LATEST RUC MODEL AND AN INCRSD WLY LO LVL WIND COMPONENT TO S OF                
XPCTD TRACK.                                                                    
FCST CONCERN FOR TDAY IS EXTENT OF LES. 12Z RUC FCSTS ONTARIO SHRTWV            
TO BE DUE N OF ANJ BY 00Z. NGM INDICATES SWATH OF UVV WL END QUICKLY            
THIS MRNG AND THAT WLY COMPONENT OF LO LVL WIND WL INCRS INTO EARLY             
AFTN BEFORE LO LVL WINDS SWING BACK TO MORE NNE BY 00Z AS HI PRES               
BLDS ACRS SRN ONTARIO IN CONFLUENT WNWLY UPR FLOW FOLLOWING PASSAGE             
OF SHRTWV. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FCST IS THAT LO LVL DRY AIR SHUD CONT            
TO MAKE INROADS INTO CMX-IWD. ALTHOUGH LO LVL WINDS WL LIKELY BCM               
MORE NLY AGAIN BEFORE DRY AIR REACHES BARAGA-MQT...LESS FVRBL NWLY              
TRAJECTORY WL TAPER OFF -SHSN FOR A TIME THIS AFTN THERE. ALGER                 
COUNTY SHUD REMAIN FOCUS OF BETTER ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH LES CHART SUGS            
UP TO 3" PSBL IN 6 HRS FOR XPCTD CONDITIONS...SHIFTING WINDS/                   
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF ANY BAND STRUCTURE IN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS            
SUG LESSER AMTS. LUCE COUNTY MAY SEE SOME PICKUP IN ACTIVITY WITH               
APRCH OF SHRTWV AND SOME NWLY FLOW. ANY PCPN OVR THE SRN ZNS SHUD               
END THIS AFTN AS SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD.                                             
KC                                                                              
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
945 AM EST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
SFC FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF GREENVILLE WITH A LOW NEAR             
KENANSVILLE.  LATEST RUC SHOWS LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF OUTER BANKS             
AFTER 15Z AND COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS AFTER 18Z.             
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY             
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.  LIGHTNING PLOT SHOWS DIMINISHING                     
LIGHTNING OVER THE LAND WITH MOST STAYING OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF                
STREAM.  THINK  THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER IN THE INLAND COUNTIES BY               
THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN COASTAL                   
COUNTIES.  OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON             
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE RIGHT ALONG COAST...SO WILL ALLOW FOR THE              
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ON THE OUTER BANKS.  TEMPERATURES WILL                 
REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE AREA.                    
CWF: WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL END THE                  
SHOWERS ON THE SOUNDS THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.                                           
BANDY                                                                           
NNNN  nc                                                                        

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
930 AM CST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
VISIBILITIES IMPROVING OVER FOG COVERED AREAS AND FOG EXPECTED TO               
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE                
WESTERLY. SURROUNDING 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE DRY AIR MASS                 
(EXCEPT NEAR SURFACE) WITH GOOD CAPPING. RUC AND ETA PROGGED SOUNDINGS          
INDICATE LACK OF MOISTURE DESPITE FRONT MOVING ACROSS REGION LATER              
TODAY. WILL TAKE OFF MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR COASTAL WATERS. WILL            
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PD AS WEST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON             
WILL PROBABLY SPIKE UP TEMPS. FRONT SHOULD APPROACH CLL ABOUT                   
3 PM...IAH AROUND 5 PM AND COAST NEAR 6 PM.                                     
37/42                                                                           
.HGX...NONE                                                                     
PRELIMS                                                                         
CLL BU 075 046/067 045/066 000                                                  
IAH BU 078 050/070 048/069 -00                                                  
GLS BU 071 054/067 057/067 1-0                                                  
NNNN  tx                                                                        

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
900 AM PST THU FEB 18 1999                                                      
12Z ETA AND RUC INITIALIZED A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE LAST RUN WITH              
THE LOW OFF THE WA COAST. THE POSITION LOOKS GOOD...BUT THE INTENSITY           
IS STILL NOT DEEP ENOUGH...ABOUT A 3-4MB DIFFERENCE THAN WHAT THE               
BUOYS ARE SAYING. THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS            
THE STATE WITH A STRONGER ERLY FLOW. THE SEA-EAT PRESSURE GRADIENT              
HAS STRENGTHENED TO 10 MB. WITH THE LOW STILL AT A LATITUDE TO OUR              
SOUTH...LOCAL STUDIES REVEAL THAT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST              
SLOPES ARE VULNERABLE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW TODAY. EAT HAS BEEN SNOWING           
FOR 2 / HRS AND SPOTTER REPORT INDICATE THAT IT IS ACCUMULATING.                
HAVE HOISTED A SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE WENATCHEE AREA...                    
WATERVILLE PLATEAU AND OKANOGAN VALLEY FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.            
SNOW WILL ALSO FALL IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTH CASCADES...BUT              
BELIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                       
PRECIPITATION HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HEADING NORTH AND EAST...AS               
ONLY REPORTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE SRN BASIN NEAR THE WARM                
FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF              
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW NOTED IN           
BOTH PDT AND PUW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE                     
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SE WA...EXCEPT FOR THE BLUES. LIGHT                
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ERN WA AND INTO N IDAHO.               
RLF.                                                                            
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 041/033/042 672                                                             
CQV 042/031/044 673                                                             
S86 039/029/039 674                                                             
COE 042/032/043 672                                                             
WWP 038/028/039 674                                                             
LWS 050/037/049 772                                                             
MOS 041/030/043                                                                 
EAT 037/030/046 861                                                             
.GEG...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR WA ZN 41 43-44...                                
NNNN  wa