AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
845 AM MST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY OVER THE THE EASTERN CWA WITH                
KHLC GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH. LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THE WINDS WILL STAY            
AS SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND SURFACE HIGH             
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. KEEPS THE GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT. OTHER THAN               
THAT...BUMPED UP THE NORTHEAST ZONE GROUPINGS (KMCK) TO ADVERTISE               
HIGHS NEAR 60 GIVEN 850 PROJECTIONS AND THEIR NOTORIOUS TREND TO BE             
WARMER THAN PROJECTED DESPITE THE CIRRUS DECK. NO OTHER CHANGES                 
MADE.                                                                           
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING LES OVER THE NE CWA AND                    
POTENTIAL FOR -SN SW BY DAYBREAK WITH INCOMING CLIPPER.                         
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RISING HGTS WITH MID/UPR LVL              
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL ACRS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES AS              
ERN NOAM TROF CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NE. UPSTREAM...A SHEARED                 
SHRTWV STRETCHED FROM SW SASK INTO NE ND WHILE A STRONGER SHRTWV                
MOVE FROM UT INTO CO. AT THE SFC...NW FLOW LINGERED OVER THE ERN 2/3            
OF LK SUPERIOR DOWNSTREAM FROM RDG WHICH EXTENDED FROM NRN MN TOWARD            
THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. KMQT 88D INDICATED SHSN INTO FAR NE PORTION OF             
CWA HAD CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH IN                  
RESPONSE TO BACKING WINDS. WEAKENING GRADIENT AS RDG APPROACHES HAS             
ALSO ALLOWED WINDS TO SLACKEN. SO...HAVE DROPPED WINTER STORM                   
WARNING FOR ALGER-LUCE WITH SHSN FROM PICTURED ROCKS TO KERY LIFT TO            
THE NORTH. EVEN THROUGH LK-H8 DELTA/T REMAINS NEAR 20C AND INVERSION            
HGTS REMAIN NEAR 4K FT...GRADUAL SHIFT OF BEST 950 CONVERGENCE...PER            
ETA...SHOULD KEEP ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE               
SHORE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH.                                         
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS INCREASING TO THE WEST WITH THICKENING                  
MID/HI CLD. SO FAR...NO SFC -SN REPORTS DESPITE INCREASING RADAR                
RETURNS...PER KDLH 88D. WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS BLO 650 MB...PER              
KINL/KGRB SNDGS...WILL INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF -SN AT THE                        
SFC...ETA/RUC 280K-295K LYR AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME              
-SN WILL MOVE INTO SW UPR MI BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATION            
SHOULD BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING BEFORE 12Z.                              
THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO...HAVE NUDGED            
MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY.                                                          
.MQT...GALE WARNING EAST HLF LK SUPERIOR.                                       
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
940 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
TWO AREAS OF CLOUDINESS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.                 
FIRST AREA OF THE RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER.             
THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE PULLED AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN AND APPEAR TO              
BE DISSIPATING A LITTLE AS THEY MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                
THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS TO AFFECT US WILL THE WARM ADVECTION MID               
AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OUT ONTO LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WISCONSIN. THE               
18Z ETA AND THE 00Z RUC BOTH SHOW THESE CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST            
MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE NORTH                
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                      
BASED ON THE ON THE MOVEMENT OF THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE BECOMING                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                    
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH 06Z AND THEN HOLD                  
STEADY AS THE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS OF              
10 TO 15 STILL LOOK OK FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...  WHILE LOWS                 
AROUND 15 SHOULD WORK FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                                
.DTX...GALE WARNING...TONIGHT...LAKE HURON.                                     
KEYES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
930 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
...UPDATED TO INCREASE LOWS OVERNIGHT SOUTHERN CWA...                           
BIGGEST QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS JUST HOW COLD WILL IT GET?  TO ANSWER             
THAT QUESTION WE HAVE TO ANSWER THE QUESTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO             
THE WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN AND THE REMAINING LAKE                 
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER... BETWEEN I-96 AND I-94?                           
THE 00Z RUC SHOWS THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL TO BETWEEN            
30 AND 50 MB OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.             
THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF JET ENTRANCE REGION LIFT AND                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA TO NRN NE            
AT 02Z.                                                                         
AS FOR THE LOW CLOUDS... THE RUC SUGGESTS AN AREA OF 60 TO 65 PCT RH            
HANGS IN THERE BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96 THROUGH 09Z.  THAT IS THE AREA             
WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE AS OF 02Z.  THIS SEEMS TO BE A                    
COMBINATION OF THE CONVERGENCE OF THE AIR STREAM COMING IN FROM WI              
AND THE WARMER AIR STREAM MOVING IN FROM IL.                                    
SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR OVER ALL OF THE NRN CWA AND WINDS            
HAVE BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST... I WILL GO WITH INCREASING               
CLOUDINESS WITH LOWS NEAR 15F BY THE LAKE SHORE AND IN THE SINGLE               
NUMBER INLAND (SIMILAR TO THE GOING FORECAST).  BY 2 TO 4 AM...                 
CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO STOP THE TEMPERATURE FROM FALLING              
FARTHER.                                                                        
OVER THE SRN CWA... I WENT WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS SINCE THE LOW               
CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY SCT TO BROKEN AND IT SEEMS THEY WILL INCREASE              
AND DECEASE SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... BUT NOT REALLY GO AWAY.             
NOT ONLY THAT... BUT THOSE SAME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM WI WILL BE             
MOVING IN.  BY 4 TO 5 AM THEY SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH TO STOP THE                
TEMP FROM FALLING. THUS I INCREASED THE LOWS ABOUT 10F... TO LOWS IN            
THE TEENS.                                                                      
ALL OF THIS BLENDS NICELY INTO MONDAYS MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.                  
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW VIGOROUS BUT RATHER                  
PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF MOVG E THRU SE CAN...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LO NR             
JAMES BAY DOWN TO 970MB. STRG NW CYC FLOW CONTS OVR THE UPR GRT LKS             
WITH SHARP PRES DIFF BTWN LO AND 1040MB HI PRES OVR THE MID MS                  
VALLEY. 12Z INL RAOB INDICATES H5 WND OF 100KT...WITH H7 WNDS AS HI             
AS 80KTS OVR IL AND H85 WND UP TO 60KTS AT PROFILER IN SW WI. STRG              
UNIDIRECTIONAL WNDS WITH PRESENCE OF H85 THERMAL TROF (NO MORE CAD)             
AND TEMPS ARPCHG -25C CAUSING NMRS WIND PARALLEL LES BANDS INTO THE             
ERN ZNS. INGEST OF DRIER AIR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL SDNG AND SFC               
DWPTS NR -10F OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SW ONTARIO HAS DIMINISHED LES            
OVR THE W WITH SHORTER FETCH AND LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME. ACTIVITY               
OVR THE E NOT PARTICULARLY HVY EITHER AS DEEP UPR MSTR HAS PULLED NE            
WITH UPR TROF.  MAX REFLECTIVITY DEPICTED ON THE MQT REFLECTIVITY               
DOWN TO ARND 20DBZ. BUT GUSTY WNDS THIS AFTN STILL CAUSING SHARPLY              
REDUCED VSBY IN BLSN OVR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. NR BLIZZARD                
CONDITIONS EARLIER IN PLACES OVR THE E...WITH VSBY EVEN AT ERY                  
CONSISTENTLY DOWN NR 1/4SM INTO EARLY AFTN. BUT VSBY AT ERY HAS                 
IMPROVED TO 3/4SM. WNDS JUST TO THE SW CLOSER TO RDG AXIS DCRSG...              
WITH ASX WND AT 17Z GUSTING TO 22 MPH. QUITE A BIT OF HI CLD SPRDG E            
QUICKLY INTO WRN MN INTO RDG AXIS IN WAD AHD OF SW TROF MOVG E THRU             
MT OVR UPR RDG IN THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVG THRU THE CNTRL               
ROCKIES...BUT A MORE POTENT SHRTWV NOW APRCHG PAC NW COAST.                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES/WND TRENDS AND GOING                    
HEADLINES EARLY...THEN IMPACTS OF PARADE OF CLIPPERS ON MON INTO                
WED. USED A MIX OF MODELS AS NOTED IN TEXT TO PREPARE TDAYS FCST.               
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PRES GRADIENT SLACKENING THIS EVNG             
AS JAMES BAY LO PRES CONTS NE AND RDG TO W MAKES PROGRESS EWD. BUT              
12Z ETA SHOWS SOME PERSISTENT H95 CNVGC NR LK SUP OVR ERN ALGER AND             
NRN LUCE COUNTY THRU 03Z. WND WL LIKELY STILL BE NR ADVY LVL THIS               
EVNG AS WELL...SO HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A WINTER STORM WRNG THIS               
EVNG FOR ALGER/LUCE. DCRS IN WND SPEED MAY ALSO ALLOW BANDS TO MORE             
FULLY DVLP WITH INCRSG RESIDENCE TIME OF PARCELS OVR WATER. LES                 
CHART SUGS 4"/6 HRS FOR XPCTD CONDITIONS...SO WL USE THIS ACCUM AS              
AN UPR LIMIT ON SN. OTRW...MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K TO               
290K SFCS OVRSPRDG CWA W-E TNGT AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH APRCH            
OF SFC RDG AXIS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LO. AVN APPEARS TO HAVE BEST               
HANDLE ON INCRSG CLDS OVR THE NRN PLAINS...AND ITS RH PROGS SUG                 
THICKENING MID/HI CLDS OVR THE W DURG THE EVNG AND OVR THE E OVRNGT.            
BUT LEADING EDGE OF CLD SHUD INITIALLY ERODE AS IT MOVES INTO DRIER             
AIR. ETA GENERATES QPF OVR THE WRN HALF OF CWA OVRNGT...BUT PREFER              
DRIER NGM/ETA/CAN DUE TO ABUNDANCE OF DRY LLVL AIR AND TREND FOR                
BETTER DYNAMICS TO REMAIN S AND PRES TO REMAIN HIER OVR CWA. WL                 
PERSIST -SHSN OVR KEWEENAW THRU NGT AS ETA SHOWS PERSISTENT H95                 
CNVGC OVR THE PENINSULA. WL TEND A BIT LWR THAN MOS GUIDANCE OVR                
INLAND AREAS IN THE WCNTRL FOR MINS AS THERE SHUD BE SVRL HRS OF                
MCLR SKIES WITH DIMINISHING WNDS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THICKER MID              
CLDS IN VERY DRY LLVL AIR AND TREND TOWARD HIER PRES.                           
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND FARTHER S WITH CLIPPER COMING IN ON              
MON...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON LWRG PRES FARTHER S AHD OF SHRTWV MOVG E            
FM THE CNTRL ROCKIES...RESULTING IN EVEN LESS OF A MOISTURE FEED                
INTO SYS MOVG TOWARD THE CWA. ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS STAY S OF                  
CWA...COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280-290K SFCS...CYC FLOW                
THRU DAY AND AXIS OF H85-7 FRONTOGEN JUST TO THE N SUG AT LEAST A HI            
POP/LO QPF EVENT. MODEL QPFS 0.05 TO 0.15" APPEAR RSNBL GIVEN                   
1-2G/KG AVBL BTWN 700 AND 750MB AND SUPPORT GOING FCST OF 1-2 INCHES            
ACCUM. ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR OVR THE W DURG THE AFTN SUG PCPN WL                 
TAPER OFF THERE DURG THAT TIME. MOS FCST MAX CONSISTENT WITH GOING              
FCST AND LOOK RSNBL.                                                            
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR MON -SN SHEARS OFF TO THE E OVRNGT WITH UPR              
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING DYNAMICS MOVG OVR LINGERING WEAK CYC            
FLOW OVR THE CWA DURG THE EVNG...WHICH DEGENERATES INTO A WEAK RDG              
UNDER NVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC LATER ON. WL CARRY CHCY POPS EARLY ACRS            
THE E AND NR LK SUP...BUT THEN DRY EVERYWHERE. ETA FCST SDNGS                   
INDICATE LWRG INVRN HGT WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN UNDER INVRN...BUT               
NLY FLOW OFF LK SUP SUGS LO CLDS WL PERSIST AT LEAST ACRS NRN TIER              
THAT UPSLOPE OFF LK. FARTHER INLAND...XPCT PARTIAL CLRG WITH TEMPS              
FALLING BLO MOS GUIDANCE IN LGT WND REGIME UNDER RDG. TEMPS AOA MOS             
NR LK SUP.                                                                      
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NXT CLIPPER SYS MOVG E IN ZONAL                
FLOW ALF...WITH SFC LO REACHING NR LK WINNIPEG BY LATE TUE AND THEN             
INTO NRN LK SUP OR SRN ONTARIO BY WED MRNG. FAIRLY TIGHT PRES                   
GRADIENT DVLPS BY LATE TUE...AND ETA FCST SHOWS AVN MOST PROLIFIC               
GENERATING QPF OVR CWA (AOA 0.25") LATE TUE-TUE NGT WITH 40KT H85               
WNDS ADVTCG PW OVR 0.5" INTO NW GRT LKS AND CAUSING FAIRLY SHARP H7             
UVV. SINCE LO PRES/BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO N...ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW             
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ARND H85 TO BE OVERCOME...AND GLFMEX                     
CONNECTION ABSENT...PREFER LWR QPF ETA/CAN FCST. MODELS SHOW H85                
TEMPS RISING ABV 0C IN THERMAL RDG AHD OF THIS SYS ACRS AT LEAST THE            
SRN TIER... BUT ETA (WHICH FCSTS HIEST H85 TEMP UP TO 3C) FCST SDNGS            
SHOW WBZ IN WARMEST LYR AOB BLO 0C...SO ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHUD              
BE SN. PASSAGE OF LO PRES AND COLD FNT DURG THE MRNG WED SUGS SOME              
SUN WL RETURN. H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL NO LWR THAN -10C IN NWLY               
FLOW IN WAKE OF SYS...SO LES DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A BIG PROBLEM.               
RETURN OF SUN AND ARRIVAL OF ONLY MARGINALLY COLD AIRMASS SUGS TEMPS            
WL REBOUND TO OR ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FM MQT-ESC-MNM WHERE NWLY              
FLOW DOWNSLOPES.                                                                
EXTENDED MODELS CONT TREND OF TURNING ZONAL FLOW AT MID WEEK INTO               
MORE OF A WRN TROF/ERN RDG SCENARIO BY LATE WEEK. OPERATIONAL MRF...            
WITH SUPPORT FM ITS MEAN ENSEMBLE SOLN...CONTS TO BE THE WEAKEST ON             
INTENSITY AND FARTHEST SE OF ALL THE MODELS WITH LOW PRES PROGGED TO            
RIDE NE TOWARD THE GRT LKS ON FRI/SAT ALG A STRG FNTL BNDRY BTWN                
CONTD ARCTIC AIR OVR NRN PLAINS AND BLDG BERMUDA HI OFF SE COAST.               
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE SE RDG DEPICTED BY THE MRF ENSEMBLE             
MEAN...FAVOR A FARTHER NW POSITION OF THIS FNTL BNDRY AND TRACK OF              
THE SFC LO PER THE ECMWF/UKMET/CAN SOLNS. SO POPS HIER THAN MEX                 
GUIDANCE FOR FRI/SAT AFTR A DRY DAY ON THU. CAN ENSEMBLE FCSTS FOR              
SUN INDICATE SUPPORT FOR A BIT MORE UPR TROFFING OVR NW GRT LKS ON              
SUN...SO WL GO WITH CHC OF SHSN. TEMPS AOB NORMAL THRU THE PD WITH              
ARCTIC HI PRES UNDER UPR CONFLUENCE S OF IN CAN FEEDING COLD AIR S.             
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/YQT.                                                   
.MQT...WINTER STORM WRNG THIS EVNG MIZ006-007.                                  
       GALE WRNG E1/2 LK SUP THIS EVNG.                                         
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
330 PM EST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA               
THROUGH 4 PM WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                                         
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THAT INTENSE                
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD              
AND MIN TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT IS VERY CHALLENGING. THE RUC 1000-850             
MB RH LAKE EFFECT CLOUD PROG HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON OUR LAKE CLOUDS.              
IT INDICATES CLEARING WILL MOVE IN ACROSS OUR CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO             
NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO            
TAKE QUITE A DIVE AFTER SUNSET... ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE HAVE A              
SNOW COVER AGAIN. WE WILL ALSO BE COMING OFF A COLD AFTERNOON AND               
TEMPS ALL DAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN FWC/MAV               
GUIDANCE HAD FORECAST. SO WE ARE GOING TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE                     
MIN TEMP FORECASTS TONIGHT. WE WILL GO FOR LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES               
FOR OUR LAKESHORE COUNTIES AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND. ETA TIME            
HEIGHT RH PROGS INDICATE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM             
THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. RATHER THAN TRY TO GET TOO CUTE                
WITH CLOUD WORDING WE WILL JUST WORD THINGS AS PARTLY CLOUDY...                 
ESPECIALLY SINCE THAT MID AND HIGH DECK MAY BE SCT-BKN BUT NOT OVC.             
THE NEXT WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM OUT IN THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL INITIALLY            
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER AS HIGH PRESSURE                
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GULF              
OF MEXICO. OUR LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND 850             
MB SW WINDS OF AROUND 40 KTS ARE FORECAST BY 18Z. THIS WILL HELP TO             
ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR REGION. AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES              
MONDAY AFTERNOON... 12Z ETA GUIDANCE KEEPS OUR CWA DRY. MEANWHILE...            
12Z AVN GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...              
MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. OUR GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30               
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND THAT STILL LOOKS FINE.             
A BETTER CHANCE FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS               
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR REGION AND MOISTURE WITH IT CONTINUES TO              
INCREASE. WE WILL KEEP A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW GOING                 
MONDAY NIGHT. ETA BUFKIT ONLY SPITS OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH             
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN. THE CANADIAN LOOKS QUITE DRY AND VERY                
SIMILAR TO THE ETA. AVN GUIDANCE PROGS AROUND A TENTH TO QUARTER OF             
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN ACROSS OUR CWA. WE BELIEVE THE AVN            
IS OVERDONE IN TERMS OF IT/S QPF SO WE WILL GO WITH THE MUCH DRIER              
ETA/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. IN FACT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOW                   
ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY NIGHT.                                 
FLOW WILL GO BRIEFLY NORTHWEST BEHIND THAT SYSTEM TUESDAY MORNING...            
BUT QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER WHICH WILL             
APPROACH OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY                  
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE...                    
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE             
WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ANY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL               
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD OFF ACROSS OUR              
AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                   
LAURENS                                                                         
EXTENDED FORECAST                                                               
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD A LITTLE                  
TRICKY AS ZONAL UPPER FLOW MAKES A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST              
FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WESTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. LATEST                 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WESTERN TROUGH MAY REMAIN ANCHORED                 
THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ONCE IT BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WHICH WOULD                
IMPLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF THE               
DAILY WEATHER...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF MORNING RAIN SHOWERS                     
WEDNESDAY AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM A LOW NORTH OF            
LK SUPERIOR SLIPS THROUGH. A DECENT OVERRUNNING SITUATION APPEARS               
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN                      
TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST              
IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT...                     
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD                
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT AT THIS POINT. ECMWF/MRF/CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST            
THAT A WAVE WILL BE PULLING AWAY ON SATURDAY AND THERE WILL BE A                
BREAK IN THE PCPN CHANCES BEFORE THINGS RECHARGE BACK TO THE                    
SOUTHWEST. WILL BE BOLD AND ADVERTISE A DRY DAY SATURDAY...BUT OF               
COURSE THIS WILL BE VERY SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS PATTERN EVOLVES.                  
MEADE                                                                           
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
944 PM CST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
850 MB MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL                   
TEXAS...AND RADAR WIND PROFILES STILL SHOWING GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...            
LOW CLOUDS NOT GOING ANYWHERE FOR AWHILE. LATEST ETA AND RUC STILL              
SHOW THE MOISTURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT HIGH             
CLOUDS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS. WILL LET            
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GO ALL NIGHT. WITH 35 TO 40 KNOTS A COUPLE              
THOUSAND FEET UP AND WINDS ALREADY STAYING UP...ALSO UPPED WIND                 
SPEEDS AS WELL.                                                                 
07                                                                              
...240 PM CST SUN MAR 10 2002...                                                
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ENE ACROSS               
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MID TO HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX. EXPECT THESE              
CLOUDS TO EXIT OUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND PLAN TO COVER TONIGHT            
SKY CONDITION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING.                                        
UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT            
AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE                     
TROUGH/WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWFA MON                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE                      
SOUTHEAST INTO TX BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. NEAR               
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH             
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 80 OR ABOVE IN OUR CWFA. UPPER                  
TROUGH PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY...WITH            
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY.                
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TO RED RIVER/NORTH TX THURSDAY BEFORE                   
STALLING...WITH DRYLINE SETUP OVER WEST TX. DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO               
HOLD IN OUR AREA...WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO CENTRAL AND EAST              
TX. LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT FOR EXTENDED (DAYS 4-7)...BUT WILL                  
MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR EVOLUTION OF WESTERN US TROUGH AND                 
POSSIBILITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN.                                            
ABI 044/072/040/074 0000                                                        
SJT 041/074/040/077 0000                                                        
JCT 037/073/038/074 0000                                                        
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
540 PM CST SUN MAR 10 2002                                                      
QUICK UPDATE FOR CLOUD COVER...AS SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW 850 MB                 
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. CLOUDS NOW COVER            
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH.            
LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST            
BY MIDNIGHT. THUS...HAVE WORDED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR GRADUALLY               
CLEARING SKIES LATE.                                                            
...240 PM CST SUN MAR 10 2002...                                                
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ENE ACROSS               
RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MID TO HIGH                  
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX. EXPECT THESE              
CLOUDS TO EXIT OUR COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND PLAN TO COVER TONIGHT            
SKY CONDITION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR WORDING.                                        
UPPER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT            
AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE                     
TROUGH/WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CWFA MON                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE                      
SOUTHEAST INTO TX BY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. NEAR               
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH             
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 80 OR ABOVE IN OUR CWFA. UPPER                  
TROUGH PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY...WITH            
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY.                
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TO RED RIVER/NORTH TX THURSDAY BEFORE                   
STALLING...WITH DRYLINE SETUP OVER WEST TX. DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO               
HOLD IN OUR AREA...WITH GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO CENTRAL AND EAST              
TX. LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT FOR EXTENDED (DAYS 4-7)...BUT WILL                  
MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR EVOLUTION OF WESTERN US TROUGH AND                 
POSSIBILITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN.                                            
ABI 044/072/040/074 0000                                                        
SJT 041/074/040/077 0000                                                        
JCT 037/073/038/074 0000                                                        
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
350 AM CST MON MAR 11 2002                                                      
PROBLEMS OF DAY...TIMING AND EXTENT OF SHOWER/TSTMS ASSOCIATE WITH              
SYSTEM TO CROSS AREA TODAY/TONIGHT/TUES AND CLEARING/WARM UP AFTER              
EXIT OF SYSTEM.                                                                 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY INDICATED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS OVER NM/CO IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO DEEPEN AND             
APPROACH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE             
ERUPTING FROM NRN MX ALONG RIO GRANDE NWD TO WACO/LONGVIEW AREA...              
ABOVE VERY COOL/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...INDICATIVE OF INCREASING                   
DYNAMICS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW CONCERNING TIMING OF ONSET             
OF SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. MESOETA INDICATES DRY            
SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL INITIALLY THWART ATTEMT FOR PRECIP TO REACH                 
GROUND. HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS QUICKER PRECIPITATION AS                
RELATIVELY VEERED MID LEVEL FLOW WELL AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE FLOW              
MAY ADVECT HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND OVERCOME              
LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. WILL KEEP CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS. SEVERAL             
FACTORS ARE PROGGED BY ETA/AVN TO COME TOGETHER FOR WIDESPREAD                  
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FROM LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IMPRESSIVE            
AGEOSTROPIC FLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP IN LEFT EXIT                 
REGION SUBTROPICAL JET LATER TODAY AND SUPPORT STRONG LOW LEVEL                 
SOUTHERLY JET (~40 TO 50KTS) AND STRONG UPGLIDE IN 295K TO 305K                 
THETA LAYER. ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET GIVEN                 
LATEST TRENDS AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK THAT HAIL WILL BE              
POSSIBLE...AND NOT QUITE WORTHY OF SVR TSTM MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS            
TIME. DO NOT EXPECT TSTM ACTIVITY TO BECOME SFC-BASED DESPITE                   
STRENGTH OF WARM ADVECTION...GIVEN LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY BOUNDARY               
LAYER ALONG GULF.                                                               
MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN MIDLEVEL             
SUPPORT EARLY TUESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIKELY TO BECOME                  
SUPPRESSED TO COASTAL REGIONS. HOWEVER...CLOSED MID LEVEL                       
CIRCULATION SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GENERATE SHOWERY                  
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NE COUNTIES MUCH OF DAY.             
CLEARING MAY NOT BE EASY BEHIND SYSTEM AS NOT MUCH SUBSIDENT MIXING             
COMES IN BEHIND IT. HAVE WORDED PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TUES NIGHT MOST               
ZONES...BUT THIS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC OVER ERN ZONES. SHOULD SEE                 
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                         
FOR THE WEEKEND...00Z MRF/UKMET CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A VERY                
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE SETTING UP OVER THE CNTRL US WITH SEVERAL                
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE BROKEN OFF               
SAT AND SUN GROUP FROM FRIDAY IN EXTENDED...TO INTRODUCE TSTM CHANCES           
AS RATHER IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM ENERGY IS PROGGED BY MRF TO             
HAVE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION.                                 
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
JAN 59/50/59/45/72 5+600                                                        
MEI 60/48/60/45/72 2+710                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
43                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
310 AM CST MON MAR 11 2002                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FCST CONCERN UNTIL WEDNESDAY.              
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL PRODUCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL              
CLOUDINESS...BUT PCPN SEEMS UNLIKELY.  LATEST STLT IMAGERY SHOWED               
A BAND OF CS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  CLOUDS WERE ORIENTED PRETTY                
CLOSE TO THE LOCATION OF WRMFNT /INVERTED TROF THAT EXTENDED NEWD               
FROM LOW PRES CENTER OVER SERN CO.  COLDER AIR POISED TO THE N IN               
THE SD...WHERE HIGH YESTERDAY WERE MOSTLY IN THE 20S.  LATEST RUC               
OUTPUT INDICATED THAT SFC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD NRN OK INTO EARLY               
AFTN...WHILE WIND SHIFT MOVES E ACROSS OUR AREA.  STRUGGLE TODAY                
WILL BE BETWEEN COOL LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WARMER 850 MB TEMPS AND                
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  LOCALLY...HIGHS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM THE               
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.  IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE QUITE                
AS MUCH OF A RANGE TODAY...WITH DECENT MIXING THIS AFTN.  EXPECT                
HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH.                                      
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WARMUP ON TUE ALL AREAS.  SNOWCOVER THAT IS                   
STILL IN PLACE NOW SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED BY LATE THIS AFTN.                 
SO...WITH MODELS INDICATING 850 MB TEMPS MAINLY FROM 4 TO 7 C...                
THINK THAT SRN ZONES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH 50S                 
ELSEWHERE.  WEAK SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW IN THE                
FAR NRN ZONES TUE NGT.  WILL KEEP SLGT CHANCE THERE.  CLOUDINESS                
SHOULD INCREASE ON WED...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BY AFTN.                   
AVN AND ETA AGREE ON POSITION OF SFC LOW BY 12Z THU...OVER WRN OK               
BUT THERMAL AND QPF FIELDS DO NOT AGREE.  FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE               
TO THE AVN SOLUTION.  THIS KEEPS BEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVER THE                   
CNTRL AND SRN ZONES.  PATTERN THEN TO REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE                    
WEEKEND.  GENLY WENT BELOW MRF MOS OUTPUT VALUES FOR HIGHS IN THE               
THU TO SAT TIMEFRAME WITH IDEA THAT THERE WILL BE CLOUDS AND PCPN               
TO KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE DOWN.                                                 
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1120 AM EST MON MAR 11 2002                                                     
WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE FLURRIES FROM THE FCST THIS              
AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL VERY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB AND                   
CEILING HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE 10K FEET. THERE ARE                   
SEVERAL BREAKS OR THIN SPOTS IN THE HIGH OVERCAST...AND AM TEMPTED              
TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY FCST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP IT              
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS LATEST RUC MAINTAINS 80 PCT OR HIGHER RH OVER THE              
MAJORITY OF THE CWFA THROUGH 00Z. WILL NOT MESS TOO MUCH WITH GOING             
HIGH TEMPS ATTM...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW BRIGHT SKIES BECOME A FEW                
SPOTS COULD TOP 40 LATER ON.                                                    
MEADE                                                                           
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
930 AM EST MON MAR 11 2002                                                      
...UPDATING TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...                                        
12Z SURFACE/MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EASING             
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH SUBTLE TROUGH IN BETWEEN. LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM NEAR OKLAHOMA ORGANIZING WITH FRONT REACHING NORTH OF                    
CHICAGOLAND AREA.                                                               
RUC SHOWS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES OFF               
THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL               
ALLOW STRATOCU TO CONTINUE TO BREAK UP. VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR                     
SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT AREA OF HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM              
ADVECTION SLIDING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
NORTH.                                                                          
RUC THETA-E CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MIXING TO ABOUT 900 MB. TEMPERATURES            
WARM AT THIS LAYER FROM -8 TO -4 C TODAY. MIXING WILL YIELD HIGHS               
AVERAGING IN THE 36-38 F RANGE ACROSS MY CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN                 
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH...WITH ONLY 15 KNOTS UP AT 900 MB...MAY SEE A              
COUPLE 10 MPH OBS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.                                           
WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLWRKMIS...REAL ZONES ON THE STREETS IN A FEW!               
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/GARTNER                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1030 AM EST MON MAR 11 2002                                                     
PATCHES OF THICK CIRRUS CROSSING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS            
MORNING. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD              
AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. CLOUDS                 
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AREA AS DEPICTED BY             
LATEST RUC. MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL SUFFICE FOR THE AFTERNOON.                
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FROM THE EAST AND WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY IN              
THE ZONES. BECAUSE OF THE THICK CIRRUS...TEMPS HAVE NOT RISEN QUITE             
AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER FORECAST...SO WILL GIVE RANGE OF 60-65 FOR                
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS FOR NORTHERN                
COUNTIES LOOK FINE. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                             
FCSTID = 22                                                                     
CAE   64  44  55  50 /   0  40  90  70                                          
AGS   64  44  60  50 /   0  50  90  70                                          
SSC   64  43  57  51 /   0  30  90  70                                          
OGB   64  43  60  51 /   0  30  90  70                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
BC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
252 PM EST MON MAR 11 2002                                                      
SYNOPSIS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK            
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT                    
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CWFA FROM THE W. A STRONGER              
SHORT WAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT MOVING INTO WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON W/              
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH                  
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SWWD TO NE FL. ABUNDANT            
SUNSHINE IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY AND RH HAS DROPPED BELOW             
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF OUR FL ZONES.                                    
MODEL DISCUSSION: MAIN SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS TX TONIGHT            
AND THEN SINK ESEWD INTO THE NRN GULF. THE VORT CENTER WILL CROSS               
OUR COASTAL WATERS TUE NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD POOL MOVING OVER              
THE CWFA AT THAT TIME. THE UPPER SYSTEM THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA                
12-18Z WED. THE ETA SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING FROM NRN MEXICO E                 
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND TUE. THE CWFA IS IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT              
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WITH A BULLS EYE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED              
AT 00Z WED. MODELS ALL SHOW THE ENTIRE CWFA GETTING INTO THE WARM               
SECTOR WITH DEW POINTS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN OUR FL ZONES.              
MINIMUM SURFACE LI/S RANGE FROM ABOUT -2 FROM THE ETA TO -5 FROM THE            
AVN. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WX THREAT WOULD BE EXTENSIVE               
CLOUD COVER AND STRATIFORM PRECIP AND THE FACT THAT THE BEST                    
DYNAMICS ARE MOVING IN AT NIGHT WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT SURFACE                
INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALREADY IN PLACE, WITH              
ENOUGH MOISTURE MOVING IN TO MAKE IT RAIN FROM EARLY TUE MORNING                
INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE MAIN DYNAMICS. FINALLY, SHEAR PROFILES              
LOOK FAIRLY WEAK. STILL, CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NEAR             
THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE              
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.                                                           
PUBLIC FORECAST: WILL ACCEPT LOW CHANCE MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH               
ONSET OF PRECIP LATE/TOWARD MORNING. MOS POPS LOOK TOO LOW FOR TUE              
AND TUE NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP FOR              
TUE. SEE NO REASON TO GO BELOW CATEGORICAL POPS TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE            
BOARD AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS COME THROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT                  
APPROACHES. WILL KEEP A RESIDUAL POP IN WED MORNING ERN ZONES ONLY.             
HOWEVER, MODEL QPF INDICATES THAT FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.               
MARINE: SE WINDS WILL VEER TO S ON TUE AND SW TUE NIGHT. NOT                    
ANTICIPATING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.                                        
FIRE WX: CURRENT WARNING VERIFYING WELL ACROSS INLAND FL ZONES.                 
OBVIOUSLY THERE WILL BE NO CONCERNS ON TUE.                                     
EXTENDED: IT NOW LOOKS AS IF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE E OF FL               
AND BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THIS                   
WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY. WILL THEREFORE               
PULL POPS FROM SAT/SUN FORECAST AND INCLUDE ON MON.                             
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  52 72 54 74  2782                                                          
PFN  55 68 55 68  3881                                                          
DHN  55 68 55 71  488-                                                          
ABY  54 68 55 70  3881                                                          
VLD  55 74 56 74  2782                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL SUNSET TODAY FOR INLAND ZONES.                     
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
159 PM MST MON MAR 11 2002                                                      
LOWERING HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A VERY STRONG 300 MB JET            
SIGNAL THE CHANGES IN THE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE              
WEEK.  WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA                
INCREASES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL AID IN PRODUCING A VERY WINDY            
PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.  AT THE SAME TIME...PRESSURE GRADIENTS             
FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB TIGHTEN...WITH MESOETA AND RUC40 KCAG-               
KCPR GRADIENTS FAVORABLE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z.  FOR THOSE REASONS...             
WILL UPGRADE THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS            
AND SOME NEARBY AREAS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING 06Z TO 18Z.  THAT SAME             
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIGHT SNOW IN THE               
SNOWY RANGE STARTING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.  AS HEIGHTS LOWER...A COLD              
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUESDAY            
NIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD AND TEMPERED             
ONLY BY THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20                  
DEGREES COOLER IN THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT.  BY WEDNESDAY           
TROUGH ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW             
ALOFT OVER THE CWA.  BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT               
OF THE 300 MB JET WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT OVER THE COLDER BOUNDARY             
LAYER COLDER AIR FOR LIGHT SNOW.  MODELS SIMILAR IN THAT SCENARIO               
WITH THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE CWA HAVING THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND                  
HIGHER QPF.  SURFACE UPSLOPE WIND FLOW ENDS AROUND MID MORNING ON               
THURSDAY...WITH THE SNOW ENDING.  GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE              
TOO WARM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL GO BELOW THOSE VALUES WITH THE                  
READINGS STAYING COOL ON THURSDAY.                                              
.EXTENDED...                                                                    
RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN STILL ADVERTISED OVERALL BY THE               
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS DIVERGENT ON HOW MUCH ENERGY              
WILL DROP SE OUT OF CANADA INTO A WRN U.S. TROF.  MRF SHOWING HIGHLY            
AMPLIFIED RIDGE DVLPG FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALMOST THE POLE BY FRIDAY.            
THIS SEEMS RATHER EXTREME.  OTHER MODELS LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE                
PROGRESSIVE.  WILL FAVOR LESS AMPLIFIED SOLN BUT GO COLDER THAN                 
GUIDANCE TEMPS.  BEST CHC FOR PCPN LOOKS TO BE SAT AND SUNDAY AS                
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS...BUT NO ORGANIZED SFC                   
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP PCPN MORE SCATTERED.                                         
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING MOUNTAINS AND PLATTE COUNTY FROM LATE EVENING            
     TONIGHT TO NOON TUESDAY.  ZONES 62>64..66..67.                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
WEILAND/EMANUEL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wy