FXUS04 KWBC 120702
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
302 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 12/1200 UTC THRU JUN 13/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...PRELIM DAY 1 QPF...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STG GULF OF AK VORTEX AND A SCNTRL CANADIAN VORTEX WL
ANCHOR A BROAD TROF OVR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE U.S....THAT IS
LOADED WITH SVRL SHRTWVS. MID/UPR LVL RDGG WL BUILD INTO THE
ERN U.S.. A FNTL BNDRY WL XTND FM THE SERN STS NWWD INTO THE
GRT LKS AND WEAKEN THRU THE PD. ANOTHER BNDRY WL XTND FM
SCNTRL CAN THRU THE UPR GRT LKS AND THEN TURN SSWWD INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS. MDLS ARE FAIRLY AGREEABLE WITH QPF OVR THE PAC
NW. BIG DIFFS EXIST OVR THE REST OF THE CONUS. MOST OF THE
DIFFS SEEM TO BE RELATED TO MDL TIMG OF THE MANY SMALL
SHRTWVS...AND FEEDBACK VORTS THAT ARE ASSOCD WITH MDL
GENERATED MCSS. RUN-TO-RUN COMPARISONS FM BOTH THE ETA AND
GFS SHOW VRY LITTLE CONSISTENCY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVR
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.

...SERN U.S. INTO THE OH VLY...
ERLY MRNG SFC ANLYS SHOWS A FNTL BNDRY FM THE CAROLINAS NWWD
INTO THE OH VLY/MIDWEST STS. THIS BNDRY IS XPCD TO CONT DROPG
SEWD THRU THE ERN U.S....WHILE LIFTG NEWD THRU THE MIDWEST
INTO THE GRT LKS AS A WRMFNT. MSTR IS QUITE DEEP ALNG THIS
BNDRY WITH PWS AOA 1.50 INCHES AND SOME POCKETS ARND TWO
INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF THE MAJOR TRPCL PLUME ARE STILL
EVIDENT FM LA NEWD ACRS TN INTO THE SERN U.S.. THE MDLS SHOW
ONE SHRTWV LIFTG NEWD INTO THE OH VLY THIS AFTN. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS SYS NR SHV ERLY THIS MRNG. XPCT CNVCTN TO BCM MORE
ORGANIZED THIS AFTN AS THE LRG SCALE LIFT INTERACTS WITH AFTN
HEATG NR THE FNTL BNDRY. CAPES ARE FCST TO INCRS TO 1000-2000
J/KG AND A WEAK 8H THETA-E RDG IS FCST THRU THE REGION. HAV
TRIED TO TAILOR QPF TO THIS SCENARIO. THE ONE MISSG
INGREDIENT SEEMS TO BE A STGR FOCUS AT THE SFC. XPCT GNRL
LGT/MOD RNS ACRS THE REGION WITH ISOLD HVY AMTS PSBL DUE TO
THE DEEP MSTR AND LKLY SLOW MOVMENT.

THE SERN U.S. SHLD SEE THE BNDRY STALL NR THE SAVANNAH RVR.
STG HEATG IS XPCD THIS AFTN WITH CAPES OVR 3000 J/KG THAT
COMBINED WITH BNDRY LYR MSTR CVRG SHLD SUPPORT RPD CNVCTV
DVLPMENT LATER THIS MRNG AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. MDL SOUNDGS
INDICATED VRY LGT WNDS THRU MUCH OF THE ATMOS...SO CELLS WL
BE SLOW MOVG. XPCT SVRL CELL MERGERS TO OCCUR THAT WL SUPPORT
ISOLD TWO INCH PER HR RNFL RATES.

...GULF CST/FL...
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CNVCTV CYCLE WL OCCUR AGN TDA WITH SCT
CNVCTN ALNG THE SEA BREEZE BNDRY AND OLD OUTFLOWS FM THE PRVS
DAY. ISOLD HVY RNS ARE PSBL.

...GRT LKS...
A VRY COMPLICATED SITU ALRDY IN PROGRESS ACRS THE REGION AS
AN OCCLUDED FNT WORKS EWD TWD THE WRN GRT LKS...WHILE A WRM
FNT IS LIFTG NWD INTO THE SWRN GRT LKS. CNVCTN CONTS TO BUILD
ERLY THIS MRNG IN THE ZONE OF INCRSG LOLVL THETA-E ADV ACRS
IL INTO WI/MI. MDLS WERE VRY POOR IN HNDLG THIS LAST NGT AND
TNGT'S MDLS ARE NO BETTER. XPCT THE STG WAA TO BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THIS MRNG ACRS THE REGION AS THE LLJ DECREASES AND THE
PCPN BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE DEEPER MSTR...BUT THERE SHLD STILL
BE ENUF LIFT OVR THE BNDRY TO SUPPORT LGT/MOD RNS ACRS THE
CNTRL GRT LKS REGION TDA. ISOLD HVY AMTS ARE PSBL THIS MRNG.
MGT HAVE TO INCRS AMTS IN THE FIRST PD OF THE FINAL DAY 1
PROG AFTR LOOKG AT THE LATEST MDL GUID.

...MID MS VLY SWWD INTO THE SRN HI PLNS...
ANOTHER VRY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR THIS REGION FOR LATER
TDA/TNGT. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWG FEEDBACK
ERRORS THE PAST SVRL RUNS...AND THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
HAS BEEN VRY POOR. CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ACRS THIS
REGION...BUT MASS FIELDS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HVY RNS TNGT. THE
BNDRY DRAPED ACRS THE REGION SHLD BE THE FOCUS FOR CNVCTV
DVLPMENT THIS AFTN AS SHRTWV ENERGY MOVS EWD FM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CNTRL PLNS. DEEP MSTR IS ALRDY IN PLC AND SHLD POOL
ALNG THE SFC BNDRY TO AID WITH BREAKG THE CAP THIS AFTN ACRS
KS WITH THE CVNCTN XPCD TO BUILD SWWD ALNG THE DRYLN INTO TX
BY ERLY TNGT. CAPES ARE FCST TO BE 3000-4000 J/KG. MDL 8H
THETA-E MASS FIELDS SHOW A STG RDG DVLPG INTO ERN KS/WRN MO
TNGT AS THE LLJ INCRS TO ARND 50 KTS. AN UPR JET COUPLET IS
XPCD TO FORM BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SBTRPCL JETS THAT WL
SUPPORT INCRSD UPR DVRG FLOW. ALTHOU THE MAIN BNDRY SHLD BE
NNE/SSW ORIENTED...THE ERLY MRNG CNVCTN NOW IN PROGRESS
ACROSS KS/MO WL LKLY LEAVE AN E/W BNDRY ACRS THIS AREA WHICH
COULD SUPPORT ADDTNL E/W CNVCTN THIS AFTN/TNGT. XPCT SOME
BACKBLDG INTO THE MOIST INFLOW TNGT ACRS ERN KS INTO MO WHERE
LCL TWO INCH PER HR RNFL RATES WL BE PSBL. ISOLD HVIER AMTS
ARE PSBL BY SUN MRNG.

...PAC NW...
MDLS ARE IN VRY GD AGREEMENT THRU THIS AREA...SO MANUAL QPF
PROGS ARE NOT MUCH DIFF THAN AVG OF THE ETA/GFS. WEAK MIDLVL
RDGG ERLY TDA WL GIVE WAY TO HGT FALLS AS AN APRCHG SHRTWV
MOVS ONSHORE LATER TNGT. XPCT INCRSG PCPN LATER THIS AFTN OVR
THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA WITH LGT/MOD PCPN SPRDG ACRS THE REGION
TNGT.


ECKERT

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 537216 538210 538202 535194 532189 529185 521179 516174 
      511167 503160 498160 493161 478155 470149 463148 458151 
      456157 455163 451170 451175 453179 458181 463178 467177 
      473180 479184 482187 483190 483197 483200 481201 475202 
      471201 468206 465208 460211 453212 439218 436220 434224 
      435229 437230 444230 442234 440235 437238 436241 436243 
      441245 459246 469258 478275 487289 493297 503302 507302 
 0.01 525242 525237 525232 525227 523221 517216 515213 509209 
      506209 504211 505218 507222 510227 512232 516238 519244 
      525242 
 0.01 495849 491842 487836 482831 480828 476828 463823 456823 
      449822 443816 437813 430811 422806 420804 415804 407805 
      387814 381816 376813 371809 366807 354805 347802 342794 
      338784 338780 338775 340768 343759 346753 347745 344740 
      342740 334745 330750 327755 325761 323767 322775 317775 
      314774 310775 306777 304779 300784 298791 295799 289801 
      286800 278798 271797 264795 257796 253797 250799 247802 
      246808 248813 250817 253821 258825 262829 268831 273833 
      280834 286838 288840 290846 291854 292866 290884 289896 
      289904 289911 291931 291937 289945 286952 284959 285963 
      287968 289968 295963 303960 309959 311957 318950 326941 
      334933 343923 353920 359916 364908 368898 368896 372898 
      372906 369922 363937 359945 355949 348958 337969 326976 
      311986 307991 302998 297005 292009 288014 284022 282027 
      281032 286035 293034 299032 304028 314017 321012 328006 
      334002 341000 349996 354992 358987 362984 365983 373980 
      381980 386980 394982 401985 402988 401993 399001 397005 
      397011 396030 397035 401034 404031 406027 408015 410007 
      418989 425977 430972 433971 436967 443965 449961 454955 
      460947 465940 469932 470922 468913 477896 481887 484886 
      488888 494887 496877 496868 495863 493858 495849 
 0.01 511110 512105 512101 510095 508087 507077 505063 504040 
      503021 500004 497989 494980 491974 484966 479966 475969 
      472974 472982 474999 476016 476034 474051 475061 476072 
      479085 483099 489108 492114 496117 501120 506118 511110 
 0.01 416064 412059 407055 401052 394050 386049 383050 384051 
      388057 385065 387072 390076 395076 399077 402076 407071 
      413068 416064 
 0.25 515276 517269 516263 515252 511241 506232 498213 495210 
      490208 482211 475214 467215 459217 454218 453222 459228 
      460233 457236 464242 469249 480266 489280 496287 500291 
      505291 510287 515276 
 0.25 478857 475850 470846 465843 459842 449843 439844 432846 
      425849 420850 414849 408847 403846 399843 397839 404833 
      415825 418821 418818 411817 404819 390824 386825 378828 
      372828 368825 364819 360816 354816 348816 343812 340807 
      332796 327791 320794 313796 310800 308806 308812 308820 
      313827 316831 321834 331837 342842 346844 351847 353849 
      355855 354861 349873 345885 344891 344896 348900 351903 
      354901 361892 363887 368882 370880 377879 383880 388882 
      395884 401884 412878 424875 440870 453867 467863 474862 
      478857 
 0.25 469891 469887 467885 461889 459891 453896 451898 446903 
      443905 440909 439914 442916 445916 447914 452910 455908 
      461903 463901 466897 469891 
 0.25 417912 415907 412905 405903 396903 389903 386905 384908 
      380915 378923 374931 370936 367944 362950 357956 349967 
      344972 339977 326985 315995 312001 312006 314007 325999 
      339992 344989 351984 363975 381970 400969 408966 415963 
      415959 413955 409948 407944 406939 406931 404924 408922 
      415917 417912 
 0.25 303820 301818 298816 291812 283808 276805 267802 259802 
      256803 254806 255810 257812 264818 270820 280822 288823 
      295824 300824 303820 
 0.50 512271 514264 514260 512251 508241 504234 501227 496219 
      492218 490220 492228 492232 491236 485237 480237 478234 
      475233 473234 469236 468240 473246 481260 490275 495282 
      500286 504287 506286 509281 511275 512271 
 0.50 409911 404908 399908 392909 388910 385913 381923 378928 
      374933 371938 369943 366950 362955 356963 352967 348972 
      339978 331985 328987 327990 329992 332992 343986 351981 
      359973 370968 376966 384965 395965 402963 404962 405958 
      402951 401944 399926 401920 405918 408915 409913 409911 
 0.50 383857 381854 376853 371856 369859 367863 362868 360873 
      358877 361877 363876 366872 371870 377868 382866 384861 
      383857 
 0.50 359829 359825 357822 353821 342818 338815 334808 331803 
      329800 326801 321802 315803 312805 311808 311813 317821 
      325829 335835 339837 345837 357836 359833 359829 
 0.50 280813 278811 275808 272807 269806 267805 265805 263805 
      260806 259808 261811 262813 263813 266814 268815 269815 
      271814 274813 277813 279813 280813 280813 
 1.00 506277 505272 504266 501261 498255 495250 492245 488242 
      487242 482245 482250 485255 488260 491266 494271 496275 
      502279 504280 506277 
 1.00 396922 394919 390917 387921 386924 385934 378941 373946 
      368953 358964 346975 340980 338984 340985 343984 353974 
      359969 366964 376960 383958 392955 396948 397941 397935 
      395928 395922 396922 
 1.00 340826 338823 335820 331816 327814 324812 320811 317811 
      318814 320817 323820 326822 330826 334829 338830 340826 
 2.00 392938 392937 390937 387939 385942 380946 377950 378952 
      383951 387950 390945 392940 392938  
 
$$