AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
259 PM MDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES.                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS BROAD UPPER               
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH                      
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL (-22C AT H5) MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES            
OF THE STATE ATTM. AT THE SFC...COOL 1023MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM                
CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL                  
UPSLOPE KEEPING MVFR AND PATCHY IFR STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE                 
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ATTM.                                        
FOR TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH INCREASING               
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF MINOR EMBEDDED SHORT            
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES ATTM. WITH TROUGH                
AXIS AND COLD POOL STILL MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE KEPT                   
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS                  
EVENING WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MTS AND THE RATON MESA               
REGION. WITH CONVECTIVE NATURE COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW UNDER             
THE STRONGEST CELLS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH            
THE SUN...SAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS WITH                     
INCREASING OROGRAPHIC FLOWS. AS FOR CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES...SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST             
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WILL WEAKENING LOW            
LEVEL UPSLOPE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS             
THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE KEPT THE EASTERN MTS             
AND I-25 CORRIDOR MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH                      
DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE            
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DECREASING UPSLOPE HELP TO BREAK UP THE            
CLOUDS. FOR AVIATION...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE IFR STRATUS                  
PERSIST FOR COS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY                 
DAYBREAK. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS AND COLD AIRMASS IN                        
PLACE...WILL LIKELY SEE A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE REST OF THE EASTERN            
PLAINS WHICH DID RECEIVE IT LAST NIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE               
HIGHLIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR AS WE ARE PAST THE NORMAL                    
GROWING SEASON WHICH IS OCTOBER 15TH FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.                    
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS               
MINOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WAVE TO BY TO FAR NORTH              
AND EAST TO BRING MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON...SAVE THE CENTRAL MTS WHERE THERE WILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN            
PLACE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. H7 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 0C AND -4C                 
ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...SAVE            
SNOW COVERED AREAS ACROSS THE RAMPART RANGE AND PALMER DVD. -MW                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                              
...FCST CONCERNS THIS PD IS WX SYSTEM FOR FRI NITE/SAT...                       
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PD IS EXTENT OF COLD WX AND PRECIP WITH                  
INCOMING WX SYSTEM FOR THIS FRI NITE INTO SAT. MODEL TRENDS TODAY               
HAVE BEEN A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER WEST W/500 MB FEATURES AS                  
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE NOW SHOWING SOME               
700MB UPSLOPE ON SAT ON E FACING SLOPES OF S MTNS. GIVEN CURRENT                
TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR SAT ON E FACING SLOPES/I-25              
CORRIDOR REGION.                                                                
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO INHERITED                  
GRIDDS. IT STILL APPEARS FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY ALBEIT A BIT                 
BREEZY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. IN THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY C MTNS AND              
PIKES PEAK REGION...IT WILL GET WINDY WITH GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH                  
RANGE.                                                                          
FRONT WILL COME DOWN EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH A LIKELY 2NDRY                 
SURGE COMING DOWN ON SAT. NAM NOT PRINTING OUT ANY SIGNIF PRECIP BUT            
BELIEVE THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE GIVEN FRONTOGENESIS AND                           
USPLOPE...ESPECIALLY ON E SLOPES OF S MTNS.                                     
BY SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A RATHER NICE AUTUMN DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S            
MOST AREAS ON THE PLAINS.                                                       
FLAT NW-FLOW RIDGE PATTER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. ANY              
PRECIP SHOULD BE ON W FACING SLOPES OF C MTNS. \/HODANISH                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
542 AM MDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
...UPDATED TO REMOVE EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES...                        
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING THROUGH THIS             
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.                    
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                   
IR SATELLITE SHOWS OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SNOW CONTINUING               
OVER ERN UT AND WRN C0 MTS. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WARNINGS AND                  
ADVISORIES GOING TO THE EXPIRATION TIME AT ABOUT SUNRISE TODAY.                 
SNOWFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST                 
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC DATA SHOWS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO                
THE WEST...NW...AND NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA...BUT REMAINING WEST TO SW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SATELLITE               
SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ROUGHLY PARALLELING THIS WIND SHIFT ZONE AND                 
BELIEVE THIS IS SHOWS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH               
MOVING THROUGH. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH RUC AND NAM PROJECTIONS.                
DRIER NW FLOW WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...             
BUT CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. PLENTY OF CLOUD IS STREAMING OVER             
THE TOP OF THE PACNW RIDGE AND SKIES WILL CLOUD UP THURSDAY AND                 
THURSDY NIGHT AS A TROUGH RIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THAT RIDGE.               
MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH THAT EARLIER SOLUTIONS AND TAKE              
THE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST.                                                  
WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE             
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                
.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
NEXT SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. ENERGY WILL DROP            
SOUTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND THE                
UPSTREAM SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION.                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE WHICH WILL               
PRODUCE THE BEST POPS FRI NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A GOOD             
SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH -26C AT 500 MB OVER THE NORTH BY 12Z SAT.                 
HOWEVER MOISTURE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN PRESENT SYSTEM...SO HAVE ONLY              
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PREVIOUS              
PACKAGE.                                                                        
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING OVER THE                
NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS NO LONGER              
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR SUN NIGHT. INSTEAD THE WESTERN RIDGE                
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.             
THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. THE FLOW FLATTENS BY TUE            
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS              
SHOWS THIS WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WED. WITH POOR MODEL                  
CONSISTENCY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL NOT CARRY MORE THAT LOW POPS            
OVER THE NORTH.                                                                 
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AFTER              
THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN BLOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRIER AIR                  
MASS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
CJC/EH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
427 AM MDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
...WINTER WEATHER SLOWLY WINDING DOWN IN THE WESTERN COLORADO                   
MOUNTAINS...                                                                    
.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                   
IR SATELLITE SHOWS OROGRAPHIC CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SNOW CONTINUING               
OVER ERN UT AND WRN C0 MTS. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WARNINGS AND                  
ADVISORIES GOING TO THE EXPIRATION TIME AT ABOUT SUNRISE TODAY.                 
SNOWFALL AND CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REST                 
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC DATA SHOWS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO                
THE WEST...NW...AND NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA...BUT REMAINING WEST TO SW OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. SATELLITE               
SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ROUGHLY PARALLELING THIS WIND SHIFT ZONE AND                 
BELIEVE THIS IS SHOWS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE 700 MB TROUGH               
MOVING THROUGH. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH RUC AND NAM PROJECTIONS.                
DRIER NW FLOW WILL FILTER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...             
BUT CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. PLENTY OF CLOUD IS STREAMING OVER             
THE TOP OF THE PACNW RIDGE AND SKIES WILL CLOUD UP THURSDAY AND                 
THURSDY NIGHT AS A TROUGH RIDES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THAT RIDGE.               
MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH THAT EARLIER SOLUTIONS AND TAKE              
THE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER EAST.                                                  
WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE             
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                
.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                        
NEXT SHORTWAVE ON TRACK FOR THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. ENERGY WILL DROP            
SOUTHWARD ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE AND THE                
UPSTREAM SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION.                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE WHICH WILL               
PRODUCE THE BEST POPS FRI NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A GOOD             
SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH -26C AT 500 MB OVER THE NORTH BY 12Z SAT.                 
HOWEVER MOISTURE MUCH SHALLOWER THAN PRESENT SYSTEM...SO HAVE ONLY              
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF THE PREVIOUS              
PACKAGE.                                                                        
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FEW OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING OVER THE                
NORTHERN DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS NO LONGER              
SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR SUN NIGHT. INSTEAD THE WESTERN RIDGE                
SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.             
THIS WILL BRING A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. THE FLOW FLATTENS BY TUE            
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST. THE 00Z GFS              
SHOWS THIS WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE WED. WITH POOR MODEL                  
CONSISTENCY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL NOT CARRY MORE THAT LOW POPS            
OVER THE NORTH.                                                                 
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL...OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE AFTER              
THE WEEKEND. LOWS WILL REMAIN BLOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRIER AIR                  
MASS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...HEAVY SNOW WARNING THROUGH 6 AM MDT TODAY FOR CO ZONES                    
           04/09/10/13.                                                         
      SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM MDT TODAY FOR ZONES 03/12/17.                  
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM MDT TODAY FOR CO              
           ZONES 18 AND 19.                                                     
.UT...SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM MDT TODAY FOR ZONE 25.                         
$$                                                                              
CJC/EH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
848 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS JUST RECENTLY CLEARED FORECAST AREA TO             
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPOTTY POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY              
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS. FURTHER WEST THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE                 
MINIMAL (PATCHY DRIZZLE). LOCAL AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG            
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED IN THROUGH               
THE NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BELOW THE INVERSION WILL               
STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL A BIT BELOW CURRENT FORECAST.                  
GOING FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR                       
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS/ZONES FOR LATEST (MAINLY TEMPERATURE AND                   
PRECIPITATION) TRENDS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR               
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/WRF AND             
THE GFS ARE FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST                 
FIELDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT THEY ARE SHOWING THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES TOWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE NEXT               
COLD FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/WRF IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND               
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE QUICKER AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER GFS IS                  
PREFERRED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL DOMINATE              
THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                    
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS AND NAM/WRF ARE IN AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...           
THEY ARE OVERDOING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND                     
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                   
ALSO... VERY WEAK LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM SO RAINFALL            
WILL BE LIGHT AND QUITE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT...WILL BE DROPPING               
THE POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE BEST                 
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 18Z RUC                   
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING WITH ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DEPICTED             
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER               
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 AS A                   
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.               
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...                   
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY ALONG I-55.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO CENTRAL IL THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN              
PARTIAL CLEARING AND END THE PRECIP IN EASTERN IL. THE HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS IL FRIDAY...RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH            
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.                                                          
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN               
HALF OF IL...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SAT NIGHT. THE NEW GFS HAS            
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BIT STILL REMAINS AHEAD OF              
THE OTHER FORECAST MODELS. WILL NEED TO TRIM BACK POPS IN EASTERN IL            
FOR SATURDAY. WILL ALSO LINGER THE PRECIP A BIT INTO SUNDAY MAINLY              
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GBG-LINCOLN-TERRE HAUTE. COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW            
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DRAGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL                
RESUME THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN              
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT THE GFS LONG RANGE IS INDICATING               
WITH ITS DEEP POLAR VORTEX IN THE GREAT LAKES. PREFER THE EUROPEAN              
MODEL DEPICTION OF A BROADER TROF AND MORE OF A PACIFIC AIRMASS.                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAK/MILLER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
245 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WITH THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR               
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. THE NAM/WRF AND             
THE GFS ARE FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST                 
FIELDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT THEY ARE SHOWING THEIR                       
DIFFERENCES TOWARD THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH THE NEXT               
COLD FRONT...WHILE THE NAM/WRF IS STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND               
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE QUICKER AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER GFS IS                  
PREFERRED IN THE FAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WHICH WILL DOMINATE              
THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                    
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GFS AND NAM/WRF ARE IN AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...           
THEY ARE OVERDOING THEIR DEPICTION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND                     
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.                   
ALSO... VERY WEAK LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM SO RAINFALL            
WILL BE LIGHT AND QUITE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT...WILL BE DROPPING               
THE POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH THE BEST                 
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE 18Z RUC                   
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING WITH ONLY MINOR AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL DEPICTED             
IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER               
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 AS A                   
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.               
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...                   
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS ROUGHLY ALONG I-55.                                       
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO CENTRAL IL THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN              
PARTIAL CLEARING AND END THE PRECIP IN EASTERN IL. THE HIGH PRESSURE            
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS IL FRIDAY...RESULTING IN QUIET WEATHER WITH            
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.                                                          
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN               
HALF OF IL...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE SAT NIGHT. THE NEW GFS HAS            
TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BIT STILL REMAINS AHEAD OF              
THE OTHER FORECAST MODELS. WILL NEED TO TRIM BACK POPS IN EASTERN IL            
FOR SATURDAY. WILL ALSO LINGER THE PRECIP A BIT INTO SUNDAY MAINLY              
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GBG-LINCOLN-TERRE HAUTE. COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW            
MIXED WITH THE RAIN IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS              
NEXT SYSTEM DRAGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL                
RESUME THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN              
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WHAT THE GFS LONG RANGE IS INDICATING               
WITH ITS DEEP POLAR VORTEX IN THE GREAT LAKES. PREFER THE EUROPEAN              
MODEL DEPICTION OF A BROADER TROF AND MORE OF A PACIFIC AIRMASS.                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1054 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LOOKING AT A COUPLE OTHER THINGS...HAVE DECIDED TO CHANGE TEMPS FOR             
TODAY...BRINGING DOWN MAX TEMPS INVOF THE FRONT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR             
MOVING INTO AREAS NW OF ILLINOIS RIVER.  PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL            
HELP KEEP SE FROM WARMING TOO MUCH.  ZONE UPDATE AROUND THE CORNER.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SPEED OF COLD FRONT TODAY/TONIGHT AND                
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CHANCES...AND IF THEY LINGER INTO THU. ALSO               
ADDRESSING SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE FOR HIGHS TODAY.            
THEN LOOKING AT NEXT WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT THAN             
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF MODEL. NAM/WRF IS                  
SLOWER WITH FRONT THEN GFS AND NGM AND PREFERRED THE SLOWER NAM/WRF             
BEING A SURFACE WAVE IS MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT. 07Z/2 AM SURFACE             
MAP HAS COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS NW IL AND JUST PASSED GALESBURG               
WHERE SW WINDS SHIFTED NW.                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                      
07Z/2 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTER WI                
INTO NW IL...WEST OF THE IL RIVER...THROUGH NW MO TO 1004 MB LOW                
PRESSURE IN SW OK. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS POST FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS            
OVER NW IOWA. NEARLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET IL WITH            
SOME BREAKS. LIKE AT FLORA WHERE DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH VSBY 1/2              
MILE. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINT NEAR OR A FEW             
DEGREES BELOW TEMPS...SO LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY MOIST.                           
RUC AND NAM/WRF BRING THE FRONT SLOWLY EAST TO ALONG THE IL RIVER BY            
NOON...THEN NAM/WRF BRING THE FRONT EAST OF I-57 BY SUNSET AND                  
THROUGH LAWRENCEVILLE BY 09Z/4 AM TONIGHT. GFS AND NGM ARE ABOUT 6              
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT LIKE THEY WERE YESTERDAYS RUNS. SHOWER             
CHANCES WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CHANCE THIS MORNING FROM THE IL            
RIVER NW AND SPREADING EAST TOWARD I-57 DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE             
LIKELY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE IL RIVER NW. HAVE LIKELY                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THOUGH MAINLY NW HALF THIS EVENING AND SE             
HALF OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SE IL TONIGHT.              
SPC HAS RISK OF THUNDER GENERALLY EAST OF I-55 LATER TODAY/TONIGHT              
AND JUST SE OF LAWRENCEVILLE THU. MODELS TENDING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS             
AROUND INTO TODAY AND WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. HIGHS VARY FROM               
UPPER 50S FAR NW BY GALESBURG...UPPER 60S ALONG I-55...TO THE MID               
70S OVER SE IL. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING SURFACE LOW EJECTING NE               
FROM OK INTO KY THU AND KEEPING QPF OVER AREAS EAST OF I-55 THU SO              
INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS HERE WITH LIKELY CHANCES OVER EASTERN IL              
AND ISOLATED THUNDER. LINGERED 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM                
DANVILLE TO EFFINGHAM EAST THU EVENING...THEN DRY. COOLER THU WITH              
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER             
60S.                                                                            
WILL BE IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS FRI WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS            
55 TO 60F.                                                                      
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
NO BIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEXT WX SYSTEM EXPECTED TO             
INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND             
INTO EASTERN IL LATER SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT            
NIGHT AND TEMP PROFILES COULD GET COOL ENOUGH FROM PEORIA NORTH TO              
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE RAIN LATER SAT NIGHT.                   
REINFORCING COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON NW BREEZES SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS BELOW                 
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HJS/HUETTL                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1021 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BROAD TROF OVER WRN CONUS THIS MORNING...WITH RATHER FAST SWRLY                 
FLOW.  COLD FRONT TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...AND SOME                    
SPRINKLES OUT AHEAD OF IT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...PRECIP IS                   
POST-FRONTAL AND HANGING BACK IN ERN IA AND FAR NWRN IL.  GOING                 
FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.  NO REASON TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.  MAY               
SEND OUT A ZONE UPDATE CLOSER TO NOON TO ELIMINATE MORNING WORDING.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE SPEED OF COLD FRONT TODAY/TONIGHT AND                
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CHANCES...AND IF THEY LINGER INTO THU. ALSO               
ADDRESSING SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NW TO SE FOR HIGHS TODAY.            
THEN LOOKING AT NEXT WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WITH NEXT CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS. 00Z SHORT RANGE MODELS APPEAR QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT THAN             
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF MODEL. NAM/WRF IS                  
SLOWER WITH FRONT THEN GFS AND NGM AND PREFERRED THE SLOWER NAM/WRF             
BEING A SURFACE WAVE IS MOVING UP ALONG THE FRONT. 07Z/2 AM SURFACE             
MAP HAS COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS NW IL AND JUST PASSED GALESBURG               
WHERE SW WINDS SHIFTED NW.                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                      
07Z/2 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 998 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS EASTER WI                
INTO NW IL...WEST OF THE IL RIVER...THROUGH NW MO TO 1004 MB LOW                
PRESSURE IN SW OK. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS POST FRONTAL SCATTERED SHOWERS            
OVER NW IOWA. NEARLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BLANKET IL WITH            
SOME BREAKS. LIKE AT FLORA WHERE DENSE FOG DEVELOPED WITH VSBY 1/2              
MILE. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND DEWPOINT NEAR OR A FEW             
DEGREES BELOW TEMPS...SO LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY MOIST.                           
RUC AND NAM/WRF BRING THE FRONT SLOWLY EAST TO ALONG THE IL RIVER BY            
NOON...THEN NAM/WRF BRING THE FRONT EAST OF I-57 BY SUNSET AND                  
THROUGH LAWRENCEVILLE BY 09Z/4 AM TONIGHT. GFS AND NGM ARE ABOUT 6              
HOURS QUICKER WITH THE FRONT LIKE THEY WERE YESTERDAYS RUNS. SHOWER             
CHANCES WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CHANCE THIS MORNING FROM THE IL            
RIVER NW AND SPREADING EAST TOWARD I-57 DURING THIS AFTERNOON WHILE             
LIKELY CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE IL RIVER NW. HAVE LIKELY                 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT THOUGH MAINLY NW HALF THIS EVENING AND SE             
HALF OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER SE IL TONIGHT.              
SPC HAS RISK OF THUNDER GENERALLY EAST OF I-55 LATER TODAY/TONIGHT              
AND JUST SE OF LAWRENCEVILLE THU. MODELS TENDING TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS             
AROUND INTO TODAY AND WENT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERALL. HIGHS VARY FROM               
UPPER 50S FAR NW BY GALESBURG...UPPER 60S ALONG I-55...TO THE MID               
70S OVER SE IL. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING SURFACE LOW EJECTING NE               
FROM OK INTO KY THU AND KEEPING QPF OVER AREAS EAST OF I-55 THU SO              
INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS HERE WITH LIKELY CHANCES OVER EASTERN IL              
AND ISOLATED THUNDER. LINGERED 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM                
DANVILLE TO EFFINGHAM EAST THU EVENING...THEN DRY. COOLER THU WITH              
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. NORMAL HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER             
60S.                                                                            
WILL BE IN BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS FRI WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS            
55 TO 60F.                                                                      
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
NO BIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST WITH NEXT WX SYSTEM EXPECTED TO             
INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES SAT ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND             
INTO EASTERN IL LATER SAT AFTERNOON. HAVE GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SAT            
NIGHT AND TEMP PROFILES COULD GET COOL ENOUGH FROM PEORIA NORTH TO              
SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE RAIN LATER SAT NIGHT.                   
REINFORCING COOLER AIR ARRIVES ON NW BREEZES SUNDAY WITH A LINGERING            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY WX RETURNS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS BELOW                 
NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HJS/HUETTL                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
935 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE                  
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO            
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE                
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA                
ON FRIDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...                                                      
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE               
TO HOLD ON OVERNIGHT SO HAVE KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR THE                 
ENTIRE REGION WITH DOWNEAST AREAS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.                  
HAVE ALSO DECREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT KEPT MENTION OF                   
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STRATUS PREVALENT IN               
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. ALSO INCLUDED LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR                 
THE ENTIRE REGION.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
DECIDED ON THE RUC IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON              
HOW IT IS HANDLING THINGS ATTM PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY & METARS.                 
AFTER THAT...LEANED PRETTY CLOSE THE GFS. I SCALED BACK ITS QPF BY              
1/10 OF AN INCH FOR FRI W/ITS FCST OF SFC LOW MIGRATING THROUGH                 
THE STATE. THIS IS TO ALIGN CLOSET TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE S.                   
HUNG ONTO SOME SHOWERS & DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS THE N THIS EVENING               
& THEN DRY THINGS OUT AFT 06Z. ADDED FOG EVERYWHERE TONIGHT                     
W/THE MOST DENSE FOG ACROSS DOWNEAST & THE COAST DUE TO SOME                    
CLEARING. SATL IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SLOT EDGING NEWD. THIS WILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AS NRN AREAS COULD SEE MORE FOG IF                   
CLOUDS THIN MORE. PREV FCST MINS WERE ACCEPTED W/SOME SLIGHT                    
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNEAST TO SCALE TEMPS BACK DUE TO THAT CLEARING.                  
WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY & THEN A COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY                   
EVENING & THEN STALLS FROM JUST SE OF CAR EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE               
BGR REGION FRIDAY MORNING. BROUGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION                 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MORE STEADIER RAIN IS                    
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW                       
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT & LIFTING NE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM/WRF               
IS CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE 72 HR GEM IS FURTHER E & MUCH WEAKER.             
SOME DECENT WAA W/A FAIRLY STG MID-LVL SPD MAX TO ADD SOME SUPPORT              
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAFL. WE/LL SEE HOW LATER MDL RUNS HANDLE                  
THIS EVENT.                                                                     
PREV FCST TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKED GOOD. ONLY SLGT                     
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.                              
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
LOADED HPC GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THEIR                
SOLUTION WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF LATEST RUNS. LOW                      
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE                    
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS UPPER TROUGH NEGATIVELY                
TILTS OVER THE STATE. GFS INDICATING AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH           
AROUND AN INCH FROM THE NAM SO USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO                
FOR NOW. UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SATURDAY WITH                
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE                   
NORTH WITH CLOUDS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS INTO SATURDAY.              
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                     
CRESTS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER               
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW TRACKS THROUGH                  
THE GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                       
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
IFR ACROSS THE NRN SITES INTO THIS EVENING W/MVFR ACROSS KBGR &                 
KBHB. WATCHING SATL & LATEST CIG PLOTS & WE COULD SEE ALL TAF SITE              
GO VFR FOR A WHILE TONIGHT (BY AROUND 02Z). TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN               
THE 18Z TAFS. THINKING HERE IS THAT FOG WILL COME BACK IN LATER                 
TONIGHT W/THE MOST DENSE TOWARD KBGR & KBHB AS VBYS DOWN THERE GO               
DOWN TO MVFR TO PSBL IFR. EXPECTING NRN SITES (KCAR-KPQI-KHUL)TO                
GO BACK TO MVFR AFT 07Z.                                                        
MARINE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH                  
LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MARINE OBS SHOWED SEAS AT 6-7 FT & WINDS DOWN              
TO 15-20 KTS. USED THE GFS W/DIRECTION VEERING AROUND TO THE SW &               
SHOULD GO WNW THIS EVENING. SPDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME DOWN                   
TONIGHT ALONG W/THE SEAS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ON THU INTO EARLY               
FRI. WINDS BACK TO SW ON THU & THEN GO S BY FRI W/A GRADUAL                     
INCREASE IN SPEEDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN SCA COULD BE               
NEEDED BY FRI AFTERNOON AS SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD. USED WAVEWATCH & A              
SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO START OUT TONIGHT.                                           
LONG TERM: SCA POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING IN                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE MAINE                
COAST. AS LOW MOVES NE OF THE STATE SATURDAY...A STRONG SCA OR                  
POSSIBLE GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING                 
THE LOW UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.                                                    
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 6 AM          
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...WEITLICH                                                               
SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                      
LONG TERM/MARINE...FOSTER                                                       
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOSTER                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
324 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE                  
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO              
THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE                
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE AREA                
ON FRIDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
DECIDED ON THE RUC IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BASED ON              
HOW IT IS HANDLING THINGS ATTM PER RADAR/SATL IMAGERY & METARS.                 
AFTER THAT...LEANED PRETTY CLOSE THE GFS. I SCALED BACK ITS QPF BY              
1/10 OF AN INCH FOR FRI W/ITS FCST OF SFC LOW MIGRATING THROUGH                 
THE STATE. THIS IS TO ALIGN CLOSET TO OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE S.                   
HUNG ONTO SOME SHOWERS & DRIZZLE MAINLY ACROSS THE N THIS EVENING               
& THEN DRY THINGS OUT AFT 06Z. ADDED FOG EVERYWHERE TONIGHT                     
W/THE MOST DENSE FOG ACROSS DOWNEAST & THE COAST DUE TO SOME                    
CLEARING. SATL IMAGERY SHOWED DRY SLOT EDGING NEWD. THIS WILL NEED              
TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AS NRN AREAS COULD SEE MORE FOG IF                   
CLOUDS THIN MORE. PREV FCST MINS WERE ACCEPTED W/SOME SLIGHT                    
ADJUSTMENTS DOWNEAST TO SCALE TEMPS BACK DUE TO THAT CLEARING.                  
WEAK RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY & THEN A COLD              
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY                   
EVENING & THEN STALLS FROM JUST SE OF CAR EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE               
BGR REGION FRIDAY MORNING. BROUGHT SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION                 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A MORE STEADIER RAIN IS                    
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW                       
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT & LIFTING NE INTO THE REGION. THE NAM/WRF               
IS CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE 72 HR GEM IS FURTHER E & MUCH WEAKER.             
SOME DECENT WAA W/A FAIRLY STG MID-LVL SPD MAX TO ADD SOME SUPPORT              
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RAFL. WE/LL SEE HOW LATER MDL RUNS HANDLE                  
THIS EVENT.                                                                     
PREV FCST TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKED GOOD. ONLY SLGT                     
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN AREAS.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
LOADED HPC GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED AND STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THEIR                
SOLUTION WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF LATEST RUNS. LOW                      
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE                    
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AS UPPER TROUGH NEGATIVELY                
TILTS OVER THE STATE. GFS INDICATING AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH           
AROUND AN INCH FROM THE NAM SO USED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO                
FOR NOW. UPPER TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE SATURDAY WITH                
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TO FOLLOW. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE                   
NORTH WITH CLOUDS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL LEVELS INTO SATURDAY.              
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE                     
CRESTS NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER               
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW TRACKS THROUGH                  
THE GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS                       
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR ACROSS THE NRN SITES INTO THIS EVENING W/MVFR ACROSS KBGR &                 
KBHB. WATCHING SATL & LATEST CIG PLOTS & WE COULD SEE ALL TAF SITE              
GO VFR FOR A WHILE TONIGHT (BY AROUND 02Z). TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN               
THE 18Z TAFS. THINKING HERE IS THAT FOG WILL COME BACK IN LATER                 
TONIGHT W/THE MOST DENSE TOWARD KBGR & KBHB AS VBYS DOWN THERE GO               
DOWN TO MVFR TO PSBL IFR. EXPECTING NRN SITES (KCAR-KPQI-KHUL)TO                
GO BACK TO MVFR AFT 07Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SHORT TERM: DECIDED TO GO W/THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGH                  
LATE TONIGHT. LATEST MARINE OBS SHOWED SEAS AT 6-7 FT & WINDS DOWN              
TO 15-20 KTS. USED THE GFS W/DIRECTION VEERING AROUND TO THE SW &               
SHOULD GO WNW THIS EVENING. SPDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME DOWN                   
TONIGHT ALONG W/THE SEAS. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ON THU INTO EARLY               
FRI. WINDS BACK TO SW ON THU & THEN GO S BY FRI W/A GRADUAL                     
INCREASE IN SPEEDS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN SCA COULD BE               
NEEDED BY FRI AFTERNOON AS SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD. USED WAVEWATCH & A              
SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO START OUT TONIGHT.                                           
LONG TERM: SCA POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS FRIDAY EVENING IN                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE MAINE                
COAST. AS LOW MOVES NE OF THE STATE SATURDAY...A STRONG SCA OR                  
POSSIBLE GALE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWING                 
THE LOW UNDER WESTERLY FLOW.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 6 AM          
     THURSDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                      
LONG TERM/MARINE...FOSTER                                                       
AVIATION...HEWITT/FOSTER                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
925 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD FM WI            
INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. AREA OF STEADY RA OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS MIXED               
WITH SN/PL ON ITS WRN FLANK...IN SHARP DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7              
FGEN/UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING UPR JET...HAS MOVED INTO               
THE ERN ZNS. 00Z GRG SDNG SHOWS FAIRLY HI RH SFC-H5. LIGHTER MIXED              
-RASNPL OVER THE W TENDING TO DIMINISH AS DRYING ALF PER WV IMAGERY             
BEHIND THE FGEN/ QVECTOR CNVGC SWEEPING INTO THAT AREA. BUT LO CLD              
LINGERS EVEN WHERE PCPN HAS ENDED WITH 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS SHOWING HI             
LLVL MSTR. QUITE A BIT OF MSTR INDICATED BY WV/IR IMAGERY OVER MN               
COINCIDENT WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF THE              
STATE...AND SOME STNS IN THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE RPRTD -SNRA             
THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...00Z INL/MPX SDNGS SHOW HIER RH CONFINED BLO                
INVRN ARND H825. LOWEST TEMP IN SUB INVRN LYR AT INL -8C.                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PCPN TRENDS.                                        
LATEST RUC/GFS SHOW VIGOROUS DYNAMICS IN ADVANCE OF WI SHRTWV                   
PULLING E OF ERY ARND 05Z. SO ONGOING PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNGT            
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. GFS/RUC SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC (PVA COUNTERACTED BY CAD) ASSOCIATED WITH                   
TRAILING SHRTWV NOW OVER MN RETURNING AFT 06Z...BUT MODEL SDNGS                 
INDICATE DRYING ALF WITH LWRG INVRN HGT AT THE SAME TIME...IN FVRBL             
COMPARISON WITH 00Z INL SDNG. ALTHOUGH INCOMING AIRMASS (-8C INVRN              
BASE TEMP AT INL VS 9C WATER TEMP OVER THE WRN LK) IS SUFFICIENTLY              
COLD FOR LK EFFECT PCPN... RELATIVELY POOR SN GROWTH WITH MOIST LYR             
WARMER THAN -10C SHUD LIMIT PCPN INTENSITY IN THE CAD PATTERN IN THE            
WAKE OF SHRTWVS. BUT WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SCT -SHSNRA TO ACCOUNT              
FOR HI LLVL RH UPSTREAM AND DECENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY IN UPSLOPE             
AREAS OF THE W AND OVER THE E FVRD BY EXPECTED NW FLOW IN THE WAKE              
OF THESE SHRTWVS. NO CHGS APPEAR NECESSARY IN FCST LO TEMPS.                    
KC                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT)...                                  
.THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...                                                          
PRECIPITATION IS NOW ENTERING THE FA FROM THE SOUTH. PRECIP. TYPE               
HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN...THOUGH HAVE HAD SOME REPORTS OF SLEET IN                 
WI...SO DECIDED TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET BEFORE MIDNIGHT              
IN THE GRIDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL. DEWPOINTS ARE FREEZING OR             
LOWER ACROSS THE WEST...SO NOT MUCH EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WILL BE               
NEEDED TO TAKE PLACE FOR SLEET AND/OR SNOW TO BEGIN. REFLECTIVITY               
ECHOES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOK RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 40-50 DBZ             
VALUES SHOWING UP OVER MARSHFIELD AND WAUSAU AREAS. NO REPORTS YET              
OF HEAVY RAIN...ONLY MODERATE AT BEST...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN                   
FALLING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THINK SOME OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY              
VALUES MAY BE DUE TO BRIGHT BANDING ISSUES...HOWEVER THIS ALSO                  
INDICATES THAT MIXED PRECIP. MAY BE FALLING OVER AREAS OF CENTRAL               
WI...THOUGH HAVE ONLY HAD THE ONE REPORT SO FAR. HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS            
WILL BE MAINLY CENTRAL AND EAST AS BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS                 
REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FA...WITH THE                
HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN WI AND INTO LOWER MI.            
PRECIP. SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FA BY THURSDAY AFTN WITH SOME REMNANT              
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN OUT EAST. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY             
MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NW. BY 18Z FRI                
EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE WESTERN FA                  
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 850-500MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH                
DECENT WAA AT 850MB. THIS FEATURE WILL PASS THROUGH BY SATURDAY                 
MORNING...BY WHICH TIME LAKE EFFECT WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN                 
ZONES.                                                                          
.00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW            
THAT PASSES TO OUR SE ON SUNDAY. THE LAST FOUR RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE             
VARIED THE CENTER OF THE LOW AT 12Z ON SUN...WITH THE LATEST(12Z)               
BRINGING THE CENTER TO NORTHERN INDIANA AND THEN EAST OF LAKE HURON             
BY 00Z MON...WHILE THE PREVIOUS TWO RUNS KEPT THE LOW OVER CENTRAL              
OR NORTHERN LOWER MI AT 12Z SUN. PART OF THE VARIABILITY OF THIS                
SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO RIDGE BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN                   
CONUS...WITH LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS SHIFTING THIS RIDGE TO                  
WEST...THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS WEEKENDS LOW HAS SHIFTED                  
SOUTH...THIS IS MORE EVIDENT IN THE 06Z RUN THAT THE 12Z. THE LATEST            
ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS IN THAT THE LOW BY 00Z               
MON IS EAST OF LAKE HURON...WHERE IT THEN DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO              
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY 00Z THU...THIS WILL KEEP THE FA IN NORTH              
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE              
00Z(18TH) RUN OF THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS LOCATION OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW AT 00Z MON...THOUGH A BIT FURTHER THE WEST IN ITS                   
LOCATION. A LOW TRACK SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SEEMS                  
REASONABLE...ALLOWING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO REFORM AFTER A LULL ON              
SATURDAY. 850 TEMPS OF -6C OR LESS ALONG WITH WINDS OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LAKE EFFECT TO             
REFORM AND PERSIST THROUGH DAY 7...TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BACK            
TEMPORARILY THEN VEERING AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE                
FROM THE NORTH PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. WHILE THE             
WEST AND KEWEENAW MAY CONTINUE TO SEE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. FROM LATE             
SATURDAY EVENING ON...THE EAST MAY GET A BREAK AS THE WINDS BACK ON             
TUE.                                                                            
PEARSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
830 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...997 MB LOW PRESSURE              
WAS OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD                
ACROSS TO 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.                 
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM EASTERN                
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.                                                
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH AREA            
OF DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO            
EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH VERY EARLY THURSDAY. THEREFORE...PERIODS              
OF RAIN (HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL) EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS               
WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND A                  
QUARTER OF AN INCH SOUTHEAST. LATE TONIGHT....RAIN IS EXPECTED TO               
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED OUT. IN             
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LAKE DRIVEN AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES             
DROP TO BETWEEN -4C NORTHWEST AND -1C SOUTHEAST LEADING TO DELTA TS             
OF AROUND 14 OR SO. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO             
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES ALREADY OUT.                           
SULLIVAN                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 PM OCT 18                                         
DISCUSSION...18Z RUC ANALYSIS...AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW            
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUING TO MARCH TOWARDS HUDSON               
BAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SE AND IS NOW LOCATED            
FROM ABOUT ALPENA TO STANDISH...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTHERN                
LOWER AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOOKING AT THE LARGER PICTURE...BROAD             
RIDGING EXISTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND EASTERN CONUS WHILE A             
SHARP TROUGH IS LOCATED IN-BETWEEN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO            
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ONE SHORTWAVE IS EXITING OVER NORTHERN                   
ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS HEALS MOVING NE ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS              
TROUGH AND HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW                 
SNOWFLAKES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  ADDITIONAL             
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE RUC HAVE BEEN STEADILY            
MOVING TO THE NE...AND IS CREATING FGEN FORCING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER ENHANCING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.               
AS THIS VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE AND FGEN FORCING TREK TOWARDS THE                  
CWA...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND            
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY.                          
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SE              
LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE EDDIES WITHIN THE VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE TRACK NE            
AND APPROACH THE CWA BY ABOUT 03Z.  AS THIS SHEAR AXIS DRAWS CLOSER             
TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT WILL CREATE WEAK Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND FGEN FORCING WITHIN THE 800-600MB LAYER THAT WILL               
SPREAD NE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDING              
TO NAM CROSS-SECTIONS.  THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE LOCATED SE OF A            
PRESQUE ISLE TO LAKE CITY LINE AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO             
CATEGORICAL IN THIS AREA AND LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN            
LOWER AFTER 00Z.  WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN                 
UPPER...PREFER TO LEAVE WORDING AS A CHANCE HERE.  COLDER AIR WILL              
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE SE...COLD ENOUGH TO               
THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES.  850MB TEMPS COOL TO THE -3C TO              
-5C RANGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE                         
SUPERIOR...CREATING DELTA T'S ABOUT 13-14C OVER EACH LAKE.  WITH                
INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOUT 850MB...MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH            
BELOW -5C...SO DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL                     
PRODUCTION UNLESS AN OVERSHOOTING TOP MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH THE              
INVERSION A LITTLE.  BUT WILL LEAVE THE SHOWER WORDING AFTER 06Z                
SINCE WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LAKE EFFECT                    
CONVECTION.                                                                     
MARINE...WEST WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT.  NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAX WIND SPEEDS IN THE BOUNDARY            
LAYER REACHING 20-25 KTS OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE                   
MICHIGAN.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR                
WHITEFISH BAY WITH THE LONG FETCH COMING INTO PLAY.  A SMALL WINDOW             
FOR BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE             
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DECREASING WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST             
POSTING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS.              
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...WILL HAVE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO CONTEND             
WITH EARLY ON THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE END OF               
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD                  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACCUMULATING                
SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT                   
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL HEDGE TOWARDS MORE OF A BLEND.           
THURSDAY...MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PULLS OUT BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...                
LEAVING CAA IN ITS WAKE. 850-700MB RH DECREASES TO AROUND 65% BY                
MIDDAY...THEN LESS THAN 40% BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...850MB                
TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -4C ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA CREATING OVER              
LAKE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL NOT EXTEND BEYOND THE -5C             
ISOTHERM...WHICH WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVATION.             
THIS MAY BE A SCENARIO FOR LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN               
SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. WOULD GO PURELY WITH               
DRIZZLE...BUT WITH SUCH WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES...SOME CONVECTIVE                
ELEMENTS IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY             
WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND BACKING WINDS END THE                 
THREAT. OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR MOST OF THE                  
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR               
HIGHS.                                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE                       
AREA...EXPECT THE QUIETEST WEATHER FOR THE WEEK DURING THIS TIME                
PERIOD. STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING               
BELOW 0C...BUT WITH WEAK WINDS...THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED              
TO THE COAST...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS INLAND. WITH LIGHT                
WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER              
20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID TO             
UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER            
AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE            
TIP OF THE MIT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ALSO PICKED UP              
ON THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES INCREASE IN A RATHER DEEP               
COLUMN...IT NEVER FULLY MOISTENS UP FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. INITIALLY...            
DRY AIR FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 5KFT WILL HELP EVAPORATE PRECIP                  
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOWER                
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO                   
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DRIZZLE                
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPRINKLES WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST BEST               
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW RAINDROPS REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH              
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS             
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WITH A RATHER SHALLOW               
WARM LAYER...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME                      
SNOWFLAKES EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THIS            
FAR AT THIS TIME. WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL                  
REMAIN HIGHER GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                             
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH            
RESPECT TO SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND PASSING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE                
84HR NAM PUTS THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/ECMWF             
SOLUTION AND CONSIDERING IT HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER OVER THE PAST                  
SEVERAL DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM THE NAM. BROAD UPPER              
LEVEL LOW PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE                    
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE             
MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE            
US. ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6C BY 12Z ON                   
MONDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.             
SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT                  
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY             
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN EASTERN             
UPPER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS -DIVQ            
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SYSTEM EXITS BY               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AROUND FOR LINGERING               
PRECIPITATION. LAKE EFFECT KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION              
TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT A MIX NEAR THE LAKES TAKING PLACE. LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS EVEN HAS A                 
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME LAKE             
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. PATTERN IN GENERAL LOOKS MUCH MORE WINTRY EARLY              
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY...BY MONDAY AND                     
TUESDAY...SOME PLACES WILL BE LUCKY TO GET ABOVE THE MIDDLE 30S FOR             
DAYTIME HIGHS. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID 40S FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE             
BEING INFLUENCED WAY TOO MUCH BY CLIMATOLOGY WITH NORMAL DAYTIME                
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.                                               
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
400 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...18Z RUC ANALYSIS...AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW               
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO CONTINUING TO MARCH TOWARDS                  
HUDSON BAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED SE AND IS NOW             
LOCATED FROM ABOUT ALPENA TO STANDISH...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL                 
SOUTHERN LOWER AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  LOOKING AT THE LARGER                    
PICTURE...BROAD RIDGING EXISTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND                   
EASTERN CONUS WHILE A SHARP TROUGH IS LOCATED IN-BETWEEN FROM THE               
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ONE SHORTWAVE IS                
EXITING OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...WHILE ANOTHER IS QUICK ON ITS HEALS             
MOVING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THIS LATTER SHORTWAVE IS                  
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH AND HAS BEEN TRIGGERING SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN             
MINNESOTA.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS TROUGH ANALYZED BY THE            
RUC HAVE BEEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE NE...AND IS CREATING FGEN                  
FORCING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER ENHANCING THE             
PRECIP ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  AS THIS VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE AND FGEN               
FORCING TREK TOWARDS THE CWA...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS             
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN                  
THROUGH THURSDAY.                                                               
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS SE              
LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE EDDIES WITHIN THE VORTICITY SHEAR ZONE TRACK NE            
AND APPROACH THE CWA BY ABOUT 03Z.  AS THIS SHEAR AXIS DRAWS CLOSER             
TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT WILL CREATE WEAK Q-VECTOR             
CONVERGENCE AND FGEN FORCING WITHIN THE 800-600MB LAYER THAT WILL               
SPREAD NE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ACCORDING              
TO NAM CROSS-SECTIONS.  THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE LOCATED SE OF A            
PRESQUE ISLE TO LAKE CITY LINE AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO             
CATEGORICAL IN THIS AREA AND LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN            
LOWER AFTER 00Z.  WITH THE BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF EASTERN                 
UPPER...PREFER TO LEAVE WORDING AS A CHANCE HERE.  COLDER AIR WILL              
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE SE...COLD ENOUGH TO               
THINK ABOUT LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES.  850MB TEMPS COOL TO THE -3C TO              
-5C RANGE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN LAKE                         
SUPERIOR...CREATING DELTA T'S ABOUT 13-14C OVER EACH LAKE.  WITH                
INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOUT 850MB...MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MUCH            
BELOW -5C...SO DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR SNOW CRYSTAL                     
PRODUCTION UNLESS AN OVERSHOOTING TOP MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH THE              
INVERSION A LITTLE.  BUT WILL LEAVE THE SHOWER WORDING AFTER 06Z                
SINCE WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM LAKE EFFECT                    
CONVECTION.                                                                     
MARINE...WEST WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER                     
MIDNIGHT.  NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING MAX WIND SPEEDS IN THE BOUNDARY            
LAYER REACHING 20-25 KTS OVER WHITEFISH BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE                   
MICHIGAN.  HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR                
WHITEFISH BAY WITH THE LONG FETCH COMING INTO PLAY.  A SMALL WINDOW             
FOR BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE             
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DECREASING WINDS TOMORROW...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST             
POSTING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS.              
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...WILL HAVE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO CONTEND             
WITH EARLY ON THURSDAY...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE END OF               
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM PASSING                   
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...DRAGGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD                  
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACCUMULATING                
SNOWFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT                   
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WILL HEDGE TOWARDS MORE OF A BLEND.           
THURSDAY...MAIN SYNOPTIC SYSTEM PULLS OUT BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY...                
LEAVING CAA IN ITS WAKE. 850-700MB RH DECREASES TO AROUND 65% BY                
MIDDAY...THEN LESS THAN 40% BY EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...850MB                
TEMPS WILL DROP TO AROUND -4C ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA CREATING OVER              
LAKE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL NOT EXTEND BEYOND THE -5C             
ISOTHERM...WHICH WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVATION.             
THIS MAY BE A SCENARIO FOR LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN               
SHOWERS IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS. WOULD GO PURELY WITH               
DRIZZLE...BUT WITH SUCH WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES...SOME CONVECTIVE                
ELEMENTS IN THE PRECIPITATION ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY             
WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND BACKING WINDS END THE                 
THREAT. OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUDS HANGING AROUND FOR MOST OF THE                  
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S FOR               
HIGHS.                                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE                       
AREA...EXPECT THE QUIETEST WEATHER FOR THE WEEK DURING THIS TIME                
PERIOD. STILL EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING               
BELOW 0C...BUT WITH WEAK WINDS...THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED              
TO THE COAST...WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS INLAND. WITH LIGHT                
WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER              
20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID TO             
UPPER 40S ON FRIDAY.                                                            
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES EAST. MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER            
AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE            
TIP OF THE MIT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS ALSO PICKED UP              
ON THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DOES INCREASE IN A RATHER DEEP               
COLUMN...IT NEVER FULLY MOISTENS UP FROM TOP TO BOTTOM. INITIALLY...            
DRY AIR FROM THE SFC TO AROUND 5KFT WILL HELP EVAPORATE PRECIP                  
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOWER                
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO                   
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DRIZZLE                
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SPRINKLES WOULD PROBABLY BE THE BEST BEST               
EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW RAINDROPS REACHING THE SURFACE. WITH              
AGREEMENT IN MODELS...WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS             
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  WITH A RATHER SHALLOW               
WARM LAYER...WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME                      
SNOWFLAKES EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO THIS            
FAR AT THIS TIME. WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN OVERNIGHT...LOWS WILL                  
REMAIN HIGHER GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S.                             
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH            
RESPECT TO SYSTEM DEVELOPING AND PASSING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
AND ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE                
84HR NAM PUTS THE SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/ECMWF             
SOLUTION AND CONSIDERING IT HAS BEEN THE OUTLIER OVER THE PAST                  
SEVERAL DAYS...WILL CONTINUE TO SHY AWAY FROM THE NAM. BROAD UPPER              
LEVEL LOW PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE                    
AMPLIFIED TROUGH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE             
MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE            
US. ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM EARLY                
NEXT WEEK...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6C BY 12Z ON                   
MONDAY. WILL KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF NORTHERN              
ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.             
SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT                  
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS MAINLY RAIN SATURDAY             
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN EASTERN             
UPPER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
WILL BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS -DIVQ            
OVERSPREADS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH DEEP MOISTURE. SYSTEM EXITS BY               
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS AROUND FOR LINGERING               
PRECIPITATION. LAKE EFFECT KICKS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A TRANSITION              
TO ALL SNOW...EXCEPT A MIX NEAR THE LAKES TAKING PLACE. LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS EVEN HAS A                 
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS LEADING TO SOME LAKE             
ENHANCED SNOWFALL. PATTERN IN GENERAL LOOKS MUCH MORE WINTRY EARLY              
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 40S WITH                   
FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY...BY MONDAY AND                     
TUESDAY...SOME PLACES WILL BE LUCKY TO GET ABOVE THE MIDDLE 30S FOR             
DAYTIME HIGHS. MEX GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID 40S FOR NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE             
BEING INFLUENCED WAY TOO MUCH BY CLIMATOLOGY WITH NORMAL DAYTIME                
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.                                               
KAS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
239 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN            
AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE                   
DEFICITS /285K SURFACE/ AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH              
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON.                   
INTENSITY OF THE ECHOES HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW               
HOURS AS EVIDENCED BY DECREASING REFLECTIVITIES AND RISING                      
VISIBILITIES ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THIS IS WELL DEPICTED            
IN THE WEAKENING LIFT AND INCREASING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS             
ON THE RUC 285K ANALYSIS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE REMAINING                 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT             
SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF DRY WEATHER PAST THE                 
TODAY PERIOD.                                                                   
THE NEXT QUESTION TURNS TO HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER WILL                     
DISSIPATE AND ITS RESULTANT EFFECT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. HAVE              
ALREADY SLOWED THE INHERITED DEPARTURE OF THE CLOUD COVER BY SEVERAL            
HOURS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATES...AND CURRENT AVIATION FORECASTS             
EXHIBIT THE SAME SLOWER TREND. AS A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED MIN                 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE               
FORECAST AREA...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN /AT THE VERY LEAST/               
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MORNING. WESTERN MINNESOTA SHOULD BREAK OUT OF              
THE CLOUDS NEAR MIDNIGHT SO KEPT THE MID 20S IN THIS                            
AREA...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING IN.                             
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY                      
AFTERNOON...WITH 12Z NAM AND GFS ISENTROPIC ANALYSES SHOWING A WEAK             
AREA OF LIFT AND REDUCED CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS MOVING INTO             
WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...IN A              
REGION OF WARM ADVECTION. ALSO RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT IN              
THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WITH REDUCED CLOUDS AND A NOSE OF 2 TO              
4C 850 MB AIR PUSHING INTO THIS REGION.                                         
LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                          
PATTERN OF TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN U.S. WILL BE IN PLACE              
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE             
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH LONG WAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM            
POLAR VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.                
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS NOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA             
AND IS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON/TROPICAL STORM SOULIK.                           
IN THE NEAR TERM...WEAK SFC LOW AND AND UPPER TROF MOVE EASTWARD                
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. UPPER FORCING WILL BE               
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO WARRANT SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE FAR                  
NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE RAIN OR              
SNOW GOING DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH GOOD COLD AIR ALOFT...LOW              
LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TO SUPPORT ANY             
FROZEN PRECIP. HAVE THUS TRANSITIONED TO RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY                    
MORNING. NEXT EVENT FOR THE CWA WILL COME LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO              
SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW               
DROP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND SFC LOW INTENSIFIES OVER THE TEXAS              
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTHEAST                
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES             
AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. BEST FORCING                
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING              
OVER IA/IL/ERN WI. UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE                  
PRESENT LOCALLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH PASSAGE             
OF BASE OF UPPER LOW. HAVE GONE PRIMARILY RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER                   
INITIAL ALL RAIN ONSET. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE                 
SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN             
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP. COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR DOESN/T            
APPEAR TO BUILD IN UNTIL MOISTURE IS OFF TO THE EAST.                           
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE OUTER                  
PERIODS. PATTERN EVOLVES FROM A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO WEST TO EAST       
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE                         
TELECONNECTION RELATING TYPHOON RE-CURVATURE TO UPPER FLOW PATTERN              
OVER THE ERN U.S. SOULIK WAS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID LATITUDE                      
WESTERLIES THIS PAST SATURDAY AND ACCORDING TO THE TELECONNECTION A             
TROF OVER THE ERN U.S. CAN BE EXPECTED 7 TO 10 DAYS AFTER THIS                  
OCCURS. THIS SUPPORTS SHIFT OF TROFFING FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN            
U.S. TO THE EAST. 06Z GFS WAS KEEPING THE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
U.S. 12Z VERSION IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH CANADIAN AND ECMWF                     
INITIALLY...BUT DEPARTURE OF TROF IS MUCH SLOWER WHILE UPSTREAM                 
PATTERN OF RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND DEEP CUTOFF TROF OVER            
THE ERN PACIFIC IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN OTHER MODELS. DO EXPECT                  
MODERATING TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROF MOVES OUT.                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/MDB                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
854 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CHALLENGE TONIGHT WAS CLOUD COVER AND CORRESPONDING TEMPERATURE                 
CHANGES. LOWER CLOUDS MOVING OUT AND HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM               
THE WEST WILL KEEP US CLOUDY MOST OF THE NIGHT ... EXCEPT FOR A                 
SHORT CLEARING BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THE INCOMING CLOUDS ARE MOVING                
FASTER THAN THE OUTGOING. KEPT INHERITED MIN TEMPERATURES LOW IN                
CASE WE CLEAR OUT LONGER THAN EXPECTED.                                         
MODELS HANDLED THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT DIFFERENTLY. CONSULTED                
UPPER AIR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND CHOSE GFS FOR THE INCOMING               
CLOUDS AND RUC FOR THE OUTGOING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 232 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH                   
CLEARING LINE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD                   
AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FEATURES AND EVEN MOST FORECAST DETAILS                  
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO PERFORM WELL                         
LATELY...AND THE NAM/WRF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH FRI/SAT                 
SYSTEM AND NOW MATCHES THE GFS. THEREFORE...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS              
FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                                               
FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL                
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS                
EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT THOUGH...WARM                    
ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT                
SHOULD MEAN TEMPS STEADY LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL               
FALL INTO THE MID 20S...AND MAYBE EVEN A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN                  
AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT MOST OF THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULDN/T              
BE A PROBLEM WITH SOME MIXING IN RETURN FLOW LATE AND CLOUDS MOVING             
IN...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MAINLY EASTERN AREAS                
CLOSER TO RIDGE AXIS LATER TONIGHT.                                             
FOR THU/THU NIGHT...PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND NEXT SHORTWAVE           
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION      
SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME                   
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE LIFT PER 500-300MB Q VECTOR                  
CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND FAIRLY DEEP OMEGA SHOULD HELP GENERATE AT                
LEAST A FEW SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN INTO THE EVENING...BUT       
A MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 00Z FRI IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MENTION.                     
ON FRI/SAT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE                 
AREA FROM THE NORTH AT THE SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES                
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH IN               
SOUTHERN STREAM. SYSTEM THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BRUSH US NOW LOOKS TO              
MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND HAVE REMOVED CHANCES FOR                  
PRECIP. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES BOTH FRI AND SAT...BUT FOR                
NOW WON/T MENTION WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH COLUMN.                    
LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...500 MB SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO DIVE INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO MON-WED TIME FRAME.  AREA WILL BE IN                
NORTHWEST FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH RESULTANT CLOUDS MONDAY                  
SLOWLY GIVING WAY TO A BIT MORE SUN AS LOW MOVES EAST TUE-WED.                  
COOLEST DAY ON MONDAY...THEN SLOW MODERATION TUE-WED...BUT STILL                
BELOW NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES OF PCPN.                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
PROBLEM IS TIMING OF CLEARING OF THE WIDESPREAD VFR-MVFR CEILINGS.              
CLEARING IS WORKING THRU WRN ND AT 18Z...AND EXTRAPOLATION EAST AT              
NR 20 KTS WOULD BRING CLEARING INTO THE GFK-FAR AREAS 01-03Z AND                
BEMIDJI MORE TOWARD 06Z. THESE AREA APPROX TIMES. LIGHT FLOW AT                 
THE SFC DEVELOPING TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN INVERSION AND               
CLOUDS HOLDING ON THOUGH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BY 12Z THU                   
AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
STEINBRUCKNER/GODON                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1006 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                     
STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...THE ASSOCIATED INVERSION...AND                 
AMPLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN A LARGE REGION OF THICK             
STRATUS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS               
NEARLY COLOCATED WITH THE FRONT. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY            
THROUGH SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE OVER               
TEXAS ADVECTING AHEAD OF IT. CLOUDS MAY BE IN FOR THE DURATION                  
DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWLY OR LEVELING            
OFF DURING THE DAY.                                                             
RELATIVE POSITION AND SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH                   
SUGGEST INCREASING AND DEEPENING ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION               
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF IT RESULTING IN                     
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST            
ABUNDANT. LOW CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST                
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCES APPEAR QUITE SLIM BEFORE                    
EVENING. AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...PATCHES OF LIGHT                        
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.                                
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
321 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS AND COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTH EARLY THIS                     
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  APPEARS LATEST                   
RUC HAS DECENT HANDLE ON FRONTAL POSITION AND CLOUDS SO WILL                    
FOLLOWING OUTPUT CLOSELY THROUGH 18Z. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR                      
THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS GFS/NAM SIMILAR                   
IN DEVELOPING RAIN/TSRA NORTHWEST OF SURFACE FRONT AS UPPER                     
TROUGH APPROACHES. AS FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUD                
COVER TRANSITION FROM LOWER CLOUDS TO MID LEVEL ACROSS NORTHERN                 
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF FA. STILL EXPECT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH                   
UPPER TROUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND                      
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO FIRST PART OF THURSDAY.  WILL                
SEE CLOUDS ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY WITH SOME REBOUND                   
IN TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST.                                       
WARMER TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE             
EARLY SATURDAY.  SLIGHT POPS STILL LOOK OK FOR SATURDAY...WITH BELOW            
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  40  62  42 /  10  30  20   0                              
HOBART OK         61  39  64  42 /  10  30  20   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  44  65  42 /  10  40  20   0                              
GAGE OK           53  35  63  40 /  20  30  20   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     58  38  61  39 /  20  30  20   0                              
DURANT OK         81  46  63  42 /  20  70  20  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
24-SHORT                                                                        
06-LONG                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1115 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OF OVC010-020 ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL                  
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME BREAKS OUR OCCURRING ACROSS               
THE BIG COUNTRY. THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY                   
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH                 
19/12Z...THEN BREAK UP ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY 19/15Z. SFC HIGH              
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING              
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AFTER 19/18Z.  21                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 857 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND HAVE DROPPED THE LAST FEW         
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH WITH UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE            
WEST...WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO                      
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 744 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE CLEARED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                        
WATCH. COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND              
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AT A DECENT PACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY              
ELEVATED STORM WITH SOME HAIL BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AND                   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT AREAS LIKE BROWNWOOD AND                   
BRADY NOW LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WELL BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR. HAVE                
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE LEFT              
MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL START TWEAKING                   
THESE AS WELL...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
857 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND HAVE DROPPED THE LAST FEW         
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH WITH UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE            
WEST...WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO                      
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 744 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE CLEARED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                        
WATCH. COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND              
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AT A DECENT PACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY              
ELEVATED STORM WITH SOME HAIL BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AND                   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT AREAS LIKE BROWNWOOD AND                   
BRADY NOW LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WELL BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR. HAVE                
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE LEFT              
MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL START TWEAKING                   
THESE AS WELL...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN DRAPED ACROSS KABI MOST OF THE DAY                    
FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO KSJT EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWEST                  
CLOUDS ARE IN A BANK WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN              
BEGIN TO RISE. AT KABI...CEILINGS HAVE RISEN JUST A TAD OVER THE                
LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB. STILL                     
TALKING ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER. AT               
KSJT...EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP THROUGH 01Z OR 02...PERHAPS                      
REACHING BELOW 1K FEET...WITH CEILINGS AGAIN CLIMBING BY 06Z. IN                
EITHER CASE...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT                     
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLUODS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...                 
SAN SABA...AND SUTTON.                                                          
$$                                                                              
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: KIMBLE...MASON...SAN SABA...AND SUTTON.                        
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
744 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE CLEARED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                        
WATCH. COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND              
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AT A DECENT PACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY              
ELEVATED STORM WITH SOME HAIL BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AND                   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT AREAS LIKE BROWNWOOD AND                   
BRADY NOW LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WELL BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR. HAVE                
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE LEFT              
MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL START TWEAKING                   
THESE AS WELL...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN DRAPED ACROSS KABI MOST OF THE DAY                    
FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO KSJT EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWEST                  
CLOUDS ARE IN A BANK WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN              
BEGIN TO RISE. AT KABI...CEILINGS HAVE RISEN JUST A TAD OVER THE                
LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB. STILL                     
TALKING ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER. AT               
KSJT...EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP THROUGH 01Z OR 02...PERHAPS                      
REACHING BELOW 1K FEET...WITH CEILINGS AGAIN CLIMBING BY 06Z. IN                
EITHER CASE...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT                     
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLUODS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...                 
SAN SABA...AND SUTTON.                                                          
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: KIMBLE...MASON...SAN SABA...AND SUTTON.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
636 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN DRAPED ACROSS KABI MOST OF THE DAY                    
FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE IT TO KSJT EARLY THIS EVENING. LOWEST                  
CLOUDS ARE IN A BANK WHICH WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN              
BEGIN TO RISE. AT KABI...CEILINGS HAVE RISEN JUST A TAD OVER THE                
LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB. STILL                     
TALKING ABOUT MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER. AT               
KSJT...EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP THROUGH 01Z OR 02...PERHAPS                      
REACHING BELOW 1K FEET...WITH CEILINGS AGAIN CLIMBING BY 06Z. IN                
EITHER CASE...APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT                     
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLUODS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                         
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...                 
SAN SABA...AND SUTTON.                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
303 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD WITH MDCARS DATA                  
SHOWING POSSIBLY ONE MORE JET STREAK TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH            
BEFORE IT EJECTS QUICKLY EWD. SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES WITH THE                 
TROUGH PASSAGE AND THUS PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE RUC AND WRF SLOWER              
THAN THE GFS. HARD TO PREFER ONE OVER THE OTHER ATTM AND WILL HOLD              
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TIMING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAS ALREADY                  
BECOME EVIDENT WITH EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD OVER SRN AND CNTL NEW                
MEXICO AND MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITY RETURNS OVER ERN NEW MEXICO PER               
88-D. BEST LIFT STILL APPEARS TO CROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH             
SOME MOISTENING OF THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER NEEDED BEFORE PRECIP REACHES             
THE GROUND. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN              
WILL DEVELOP AS IT CROSSES THE AREA BEFORE UNDERGOING SOME WEAKENING            
LATER TONIGHT. WILL BUMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR AREAS ON            
THE CAPROCK AND TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.                 
AGAIN SOME MODEL RELATED TIMING ISSUES TO CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE             
TROUGH...BUT SHOULD BE CLEAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL COME                
AROUND TO A WLY COMPONENT MOST LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON BUT ADDED                 
DOWNSLOPING WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MOST EFFECT NEAR THE NEW MEXICO                
LINE. GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE FOR TONIGHT AND ARE GENERALLY              
ACCEPTED. FOR HIGHS THURSDAY A LITTLE MORE SPREAD. GIVEN COOL AIR               
MASS AND CONTINUED MOIST GROUND WILL CONTINUE TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE            
ATTM.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH ON FRI WILL RESULT IN WINDS COMING AROUND BACK            
TO THE S-SW AND BRING A WARMUP BACK INTO THE 70S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR              
SKIES. NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SE THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO             
THE PLAINS SAT. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH            
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SAT. THE EXACT TIMING WILL AFFECT SAT MAX                
TEMPS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SRN COUNTIES WILL BE ABLE TO               
WARM WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...WHILE                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE WIND SHIFT AND CAA BEFORE PEAK                        
HEATING....THUS LEADING TO A DECENT TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA.               
THIS LIKELY TO BE ADJUSTED AS FUTURE SOLUTIONS CONVERGE. IT APPEARS             
THAT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE                        
CWA...LIMITING PRECIP CHCS...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOW                 
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN SAT EVE THROUGH SUN MORN. HAVE WENT WITH SOME                 
CLOUD COVER SUN MORN IN THE GRIDS AND AS SUCH MIN TEMPS WILL NOT                
BOTTOM OUT...WITH CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP DURING THE DAY SUN. TEMPS             
ON SUN MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S AND MONDAY MAY BE THE COLDEST             
MORNING IF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS VERIFY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH               
FREEZING IN THE SW PANHANDLE.                                                   
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN ENSUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP                
COINCIDING WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF LEE-TROUGHING. RIDGE                    
AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES...PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT             
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TREND FOR WTX THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT             
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH BY SHTWV MOVING FROM               
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST COULD APPROACH THE SPLNS IN THE                 
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        36  65  41  74 /  70  10   0   0                                  
TULIA         38  64  42  72 /  70  10   0   0                                  
PLAINVIEW     39  64  43  73 /  70  10   0   0                                  
LEVELLAND     42  65  43  75 /  60  10   0   0                                  
LUBBOCK       41  64  44  75 /  60  10   0   0                                  
BROWNFIELD    42  65  45  76 /  50  10   0   0                                  
CHILDRESS     42  63  43  74 /  40  20   0   0                                  
SPUR          45  64  43  74 /  50  20   0   0                                  
ASPERMONT     45  63  45  75 /  40  20   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/33                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLUODS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE      45  63  44  76 /  20  10   0   0                                   
SAN ANGELO   50  67  43  77 /  20  20   0   0                                   
JUNCTION     54  67  42  77 /  40  20   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
20                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1005 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAS RAPIDLY RETURNED WITH PRECIPITABLE              
WATERS NEAR 2.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS A                  
STRONG CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE                    
LOW/MID LEVELS CONTNUING TO MOISTEN WITH THE CAP WEAKENING THROUGH              
THE AFTERNOON. A JET STREAK NOSING IN FROM THE SW WILL HELP WITH                
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BUT AT THE SFC...A FOCUS IS LACKING. THE SEA                
BREEZE WILL PROVIDE SOME SFC FORCING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE                   
QUESTION IS WILL IT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. TEMP WOULD               
ALSO HAVE TO REACH 96 DEGREES AND WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AM                 
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH THAT VALUE. THE VCT AREA STILL HAS THE BEST              
CHC THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAKER CAP AND PROXIMITY TO STRONGER                 
DYNAMICS. WILL LOWER THE 50 AND 60 POPS FOR TODAY DOWN TO 40 AND                
50 PERCENT. THE BEST CHC FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LATE                            
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 445 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER              
HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GOES           
SOUNDER SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF               
MEXICO/NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER              
TEXAS COAST. 00Z BROWNSVILLE SOUNDING SHOWED 2.2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE            
WATER AND GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PWATS AS HIGH AS 2.5 INCHES ATTM.              
THE GFS SHOWS THIS DEEP MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE COASTAL              
BEND BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO            
POSSIBLY 80 DEGREES...VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE               
GFS/RUC SHOW CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 5000 J/KG WHICH MAY BE A BIT HIGH           
BUT 3000-4000 J/KG APPEARS REASONABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A              
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER           
LEVEL JET STREAK THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH               
TEXAS TODAY. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS                
BY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHABLE BY EARLY                
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE                  
COASTAL PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH             
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. BUT WITH AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE               
AND INCREASING SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS...STORMS EXHIBITING ROTATION             
COULD LEAD TO INCREASED ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS EXPECT LOW                   
LFC (LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION) LEVELS TO OCCUR WITH SUCH HIGH                   
DEWPOINTS. DEEP WARM AND MOIST LAYER SHOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY               
RAIN THREAT AS WELL. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VCT                
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE COASTAL BEND FOR LATER              
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH INTO THE FCST                
AREA. WENT CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING             
WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EXCEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FAR WEST.               
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT                  
IF RAIN GETS EXCESSIVE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WENT CLOSER                
TO THE GFS FOR TIMING ON THE FRONT.                                             
WILL COVER HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HWO                 
AS WELL AS POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.                                       
AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OCCURING WITHIN LOW STRATUS DECK                 
OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. BUT STRATUS IS INHIBITING                
FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE WITH ONLY A FEW PLACES BELOW 3 MILES...VCT              
AREA. STRATUS/FOG WILL MAINTAIN IFR/LIFR CONDS OVER THE REGION UNTIL            
AROUND 15Z...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. EXPECT              
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON WITHIN VERY                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERY HEAVY RAIN/LOW CEILINGS WITH STORMS WILL                 
LEAD TO IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT OUTSIDE                
OF CONVECTIVE AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH TEXAS                
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH A VCT-COT LINE             
BY 11Z THURSDAY AND BE SOUTH OF A NQI-LRD LINE BY 15Z. SCATTERED                
TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE IFR CONDS ALONG                 
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BEHIND                 
THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE               
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
MARINE...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE MARINE ZONES EARLY THIS                       
MORNING. BUT WITH MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUING...EXPECT SCATTERED                 
SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS                    
MORNING. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS                  
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.                    
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF                    
THE FRONT THURSDAY. WILL ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO                    
ALERT MARINERS OF CHANGING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.                     
LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE              
BASICALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH A DRIER TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN SETTLING IN             
OVER S TX THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO                  
RADIATIVE COOLING SO EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW                
NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND              
TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP LATE                
FRIDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST...FRI NIGHT             
THRU SATURDAY TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS                
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST                   
SATURDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN             
RESPONSE TO A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO            
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE               
FIELDS ARE NOT REALLY THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT WITH PWATS                 
BETWEEN 1.5-1.7 INCHES. WILL INDICATE LOW-END CHANCE POPS OVER THE              
COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE               
IS PROGGED TO RESIDE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE                
FRONT ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. STAYED A              
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE MEX GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT AS                 
THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MASS WILL PROBABLY MODIFY BY THE TIME IT              
REACHES THE AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED MON-TUE               
AS THE AIR MASS FURTHER MODIFIES IN RESPONSE TO SUBSIDENT NWLY                  
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING MONDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TE/81...SHORT-TERM                                                              
WC/87...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
914 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 13Z...UPDATING TO REMOVE THE                      
HEADLINES...AND MAINLY ADJUSTING WX GRIDS WITH FOG BECOMING                     
PATCHIER. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS CLOUD COVER HANGING ON IN              
SE WV-FAR SW VA. FEEL UPSLOPE AND 10Z RUC DEPICTIONS OF CLOUD                   
COVER SUFFICIENT TO RAISE SKY COVERAGE HERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.              
WILL AWAIT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS INTO TONIGHT.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 644 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING BUT BUFKIT HAS DRIER AIR                   
WORKING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BETWEEN 14-16UTC. VISIBILITIES AND                  
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE FROM VLIFR/LIFR TO VFR BY 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE              
WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL BE LIGHT              
AGAIN TONIGHT. MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. CLOUDS FROM               
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING OUT OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL               
NOT REACH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 12UTC ON THURSDAY.                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 413 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...                                      
STILL A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE             
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES OF ONE              
HALF TO ONE QUARTER MILE INTO THE VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS...ALLEGHANY                
HIGHLAND AND SOUTHERN SHENENDOAH VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE             
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HAVE              
ALSO SLOWED DOWN THE DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG. BUFKIT HAS              
DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT 14-15UTC TO LYH AND                    
15-16UTC AND DAN.                                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES WILL COVER THE               
COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM ON 00UTC             
WRF HAS SYNOPTIC LIFT REACHING THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON...AND MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA ON              
FRIDAY MORNING. TRACK AND POSITION OF SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT BY             
FRIDAY MORNING ON THE GFS IS FAVORED AT THIS TIME.                              
THE DEEP MOISTURE AND BEST Q-VECTOR FORCING MOVE THROUGH BY 12UTC               
FRIDAY. WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...850 MB WINDS 40-50 KNOTS               
.THERE MAY BE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST              
COUNTY WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL ADD THUNDER             
IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BASED ON NEW SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.                  
THE SURFACE AND 850 MB FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH THE            
COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. 850 MB WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS BEHIND THE                
FRONT ON FRIDAY MORNING AND PRESSURE RISES AREA FORECAST AT 3-6MB IN            
6 HOURS SO WILL BE INCREASING THE WINDS ON FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS              
AND FOOTHILLS.                                                                  
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS COMING IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.              
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING DOWN BELOW 0.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY                
NIGHT...WILL BE CUTTING BACK ON THE CLOUD COVER.                                
WENT CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT TRENDED WARMER             
THAN GUIDANCE FOR BLF AND LWB WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY              
NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN GUIDANCE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY                 
NIGHT.                                                                          
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
LIGHT WINDS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LIFR/IFR            
IN FOG/LOW CEILINGS THIS MORNING. AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEGINS             
AROUND 15Z...ANTICIPATE QUICK IMPROVEMENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE                
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU ARE POSSIBLE                
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING. PATCHY RIVER             
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.                  
MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.                    
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WP                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
245 AM MDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING.                  
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP TODAY AND FRIDAY                 
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION PHASE WITH              
THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.           
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RAISING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY           
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY...OR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN               
TO THE UPPER 20S AS WINDS SLACKEN AROUND SUNRISE.                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST              
COUPLE OF RUNS. NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH                
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS                   
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  HAVE USED MORE OF A GFS                    
SOLUTION WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC WIND FIELDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE               
SHORT TERM. THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY                
MADE MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY                    
TIMING AND COVERAGE AREAS OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES                  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACH AND JUST MANAGE TO REACH FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST                     
SECTIONS. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR                
LESS OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE                      
COLORADO COUNTIES.                                                              
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING              
TREND FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                 
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR                 
     KSZ001-KSZ002-KSZ003-KSZ004-KSZ013-KSZ014-KSZ015-KSZ016-                   
     KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.                                        
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR                 
     NEZ079-NEZ080.                                                             
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LOCKHART                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
330 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO EXPAND              
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AS OF 08Z. THIS                 
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE 850 MB TROUGH...WHICH LAGS             
WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED            
FROM ABOUT OWENSBORO TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY AT 08Z.                               
06Z RUC MODEL TAKES THE SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF MUCH COOLER AIR.                  
SURFACE TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS KMVN/KMDH AREAS              
AS OF 08Z...AND THE LOWER 40S WERE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KSTL. RUC             
2 METER TEMPS AND GFS MOS TEMPS SUGGEST READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE             
40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LITTLE              
IF ANY RISE IN TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FACE OF BRISK             
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER               
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE 850 MB TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON                
OVER WESTERN KY.                                                                
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE WELL DEFINED THIS EVENING IN                    
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG 500 MB VORT                            
CENTER/SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE                
TEXAS PANHANDLE AT 12Z...SHOULD DAMPEN SOMEWHAT BEFORE REACHING SE              
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS OF RH AND               
VERTICAL VELOCITY INDICATE A RAPID TRANSITION TO SUBSIDENCE AND                 
DRYING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD               
OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH                       
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR...LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.            
SOME PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE            
SKIES CLEAR THE SOONEST.                                                        
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA             
FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO            
THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP RAISE TEMPS TO AROUND 60                
DURING THE DAY.                                                                 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO               
VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO               
WORK WITH...AND THE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY NEAR              
THE FRONT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXISTS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.                
SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION               
WITH MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS.                   
THE MAIN STORY EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A LARGE COLD 500 MB VORTEX               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS INDICATES UNSEASONABLY COOL                    
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 6 MONDAY/TUESDAY. EVEN            
IF 850 MB TEMPS VERIFY TOO COLD...LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S              
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
423 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS PCPN POTENTIAL WHICH WILL              
FREQUENTLY REVOLVE AROUND LAKE EFFECT PCPN.                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF                    
DOMINATING CNTRL CANADA INTO THE CNTRL/WRN CONUS WITH INDICATIONS OF            
A VORTEX REDEVELOPING OVER NRN MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE                   
LIFTING NE WITHIN THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BROUGHT SOME -RA TO MAINLY THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE            
FCST AREA LAST EVENING. TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE ACROSS              
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MT. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE OF INTEREST FRI.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE GULF            
OF ALASKA WAS APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVOLUTION OF THIS               
SYSTEM WILL BE A FCST ISSUE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THRU THE            
LONGWAVE TROF POSITION FROM HUDSON BAY S ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS.                
LAKE EFFECT PCPN HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL WITH CAA FROM THE NW.              
00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF -7C...SUFFICIENT FOR              
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SFC WATER TEMPS GENERALLY 8-9C.             
KINL SOUNDING INDICATED INVERSION BASE AT 5.4KFT WHILE IT WAS BASED             
AT 4.6KFT AT CWPL. AIRMASS BLO INVERSION WAS MOIST...FURTHER                    
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT PCPN DEVELOPMENT.                                        
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THIS              
MORNING FOR NW FLOW AFFECTED AREAS DUE TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.                
PCPN WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MOIST SUB INVERSION PROFILE                   
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE AIRMASS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE LAKE.                    
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DUE TO POOR SNOW GROWTH                  
MICROPHYSICS AS TEMPS WITHIN MOIST LAYER ARE GENERALLY ABOVE -10C.              
DID NOT MENTION ANY SNOW OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS FCST             
SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WELL OVER 1KFT DEEP.              
THIS AFTN...FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC RIDGE               
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASINGLY                        
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING                      
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES OFF THE LAKE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM               
THE W PER FCST SOUNDINGS WILL SPELL THE DEMISE OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN              
FROM W TO E LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN. AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT                   
PCPN...MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT               
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY             
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.                              
ANY LINGERING STRATOCU SHOULD DEPART EARLY THIS EVENING IN                      
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE              
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH                   
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE HEADING TO THE MID             
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY               
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. WILL                
THUS FAVOR LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT.                                     
ALTHOUGH FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                 
TONIGHT WILL PASS WELL S AND SE OF HERE FRI...MODELS STILL INDICATE             
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WITH A WEAK SFC LOW            
REFLECTION. IN THIS REGARD...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD THE                 
NAM SOLUTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW AND WEAK MOIST                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT VIEWED ON 290K SFC (AROUND 700MB) SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT LOW END CHC POPS FOR -SHRA SPREADING W TO E               
FRI AFTN/EVENING. AS SFC LOW TRACKS E FRI NIGHT...CAA GETS UNDERWAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C PER PREFERRED COOLER GFS                
SOLUTION. SO...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN TO DEVELOP OVER             
THE W DURING THE NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD THEN DEVELOP INTO               
THE ERN FCST AREA SAT AS CAA CONTINUES AROUND SOUTHERN SIDE OF                  
VORTEX WHICH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN OVER ONTARIO BY THAT                
TIME (850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY SAT AFTN). AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT PCPN...HAVE KEPT GOING CHC POPS             
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL REACH THE             
SRN PLAINS SAT AND WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. MODEL                 
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SE OF THE FCST            
AREA AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE. EVEN SO...IT              
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH MID/UPPER                     
TROF/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD            
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY             
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT (850MB TEMPS -7/-8C).                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
344 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE CWA.                 
WESTERN EDGE HAD BEEN MOVING ALONG AT A FAIRLY GOOD PACE BUT HAS                
SLOWED SOME IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THERE ARE SOME HOLES SHOWING                
UP IN A FEW SPOTS EAST OF THE WESTERN EDGE. 06Z RUC 850 MB                      
RH FIELD HAS BEST FIT TO THE PATTERN AND THIS EDGE DOES NOT REACH               
WI BORDER UNTIL ABOUT NOON. IT MAY CLEAR FASTER THAN THAT ONCE                  
UPPER TROUGH AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY MOVES EAST AND STRONGER                      
SUBSDNC MOVES IN FOR A TIME. OTHERWISE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN NW FLOW               
WILL AFFECT AREA TONIGHT. NOT MUCH SATURATION SEEN ON EITHER NAM                
OR GFS UNTIL EVENING SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS DURING DAYLIGHT                   
HOURS. WILL SPREAD SOME LOW POPS FARTHER SOUTH INITIALLY THIS                   
EVENING WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGESTED...THEN KEEP MOSTLY IN                
N AND E CWA LATER TONIGHT CLOSER TO MORE SIG QG CONV. STRONGER                  
WAVE IN WNW FLOW HANDLED IN SIMILAR MANNER BY VARIOUS MODELS AND                
TREND IS MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS JUST TO OUR SOUTH. GUID POPS SEEM               
A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF FORCING. WILL BACK OFF                
SOME ON POPS BUT KEEP A MID RANGE VALUE GOING ALONG SOUTHER TIER                
OF COUNTIES. GFS MIN TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND A                 
LITTLE HIGH ON FRIDAY.                                                          
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW              
PATTER WITH POLAR VORTEX ROTATING THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY              
IN PERIOD.  85H TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES STILL INDICATING COLDEST                  
PERIOD TO BE SUN AND MON...WITH MODERATION THEREAFTER AS LOW MOVES              
EAST.  MOVEMENT OF POLAR VORTEX ALWAYS IN QUESTION...BUT SOME                   
MODERATION EXPECTED MID/LATE NEXT WEEK.  PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES            
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME...AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND               
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN             
GREAT LAKES THEN.  DRY TREND SHOULD ENSUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LARGE              
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST REGION.                                
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/DWE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
POST FRONTAL STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BREAK UP SOME ACROSS THE                 
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. EXPECT OVC CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FARTHER                  
SOUTH BUT COULD SEE WIDESPREAD OVC CONDITIONS TO FILL BACK IN                   
LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS W TX.                  
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AN RA FOR THE KABI AREA WITH THIS                   
SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE OVC SKIES WILL BE ABOVE MVFR RULES                 
IF THEY FILL BACK IN. FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KSJT AND KJCT LOOK                  
FOR CEILINGS TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES SHOULD                   
SCATTER OUT AT BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z.                   
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH THE NEXT 24 HRS                    
ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE                    
BUILDS INTO N TX.                                                               
10                                                                              
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 857 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
SEVERE STORM THREAT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND HAVE DROPPED THE LAST FEW         
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED POPS DOWN ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH WITH UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE            
WEST...WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR LATER TONIGHT AND INTO                      
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 744 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
HAVE CLEARED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                        
WATCH. COLD FRONT HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND              
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AT A DECENT PACE. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY              
ELEVATED STORM WITH SOME HAIL BACK INTO THE EXTREME SOUTH AND                   
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT AREAS LIKE BROWNWOOD AND                   
BRADY NOW LOOK LIKE THEY ARE WELL BACK INTO THE COOLER AIR. HAVE                
ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...BUT HAVE LEFT              
MOST OF THE FORECAST GRIDS ALONE FOR NOW. WILL START TWEAKING                   
THESE AS WELL...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THERE IS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A                
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN               
BAJA PENINSULA CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AZ TODAY...WHICH IS                 
BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.               
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A COLD                 
FRONT HURTLING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY AT THE SURFACE  BRINGING LOW               
CLOUDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 250MB                
WINDS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE                         
STRONG...700MB WINDS ARE 20-30 KT. THIS IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO                
MAKE ITS ADVANCE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALTHOUGH CAN               
SEE THAT THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED THEIR ADVANCE. CAN SEE CUMULUS              
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.                      
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE               
FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND RESULT IN A FOCUS                 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY AND                
SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE               
CURRENT SPEED OF THE FRONT...THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND AREA MAY BE                 
NORTH OF THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD KEEP SFC                  
BASED INITIATION OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA FOR                    
TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN HEARTLAND COULD STILL BE AFFECTED AS THE                  
STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST. WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE               
BRINGING IN MORE LIFT COMBINING WITH THE FRONT...WILL KEEP THE                  
GOOD TO LIKELY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN                   
COUNTIES...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. HAVE              
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA FOR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS AS THEY SHOULD BE                     
FARTHEST FROM BOTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.              
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT...AIR IS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER THE                    
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY WITH LI/S DOWN TO -7 ON 18Z ANALYSIS. KDRT               
DID SHOW AN INVERSION NEAR 700MB...AND WV SHOWS FAIRLY DRY AIR                  
ALOFT. BUT RUC80 0-6KMB BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50KTS...AND THIS                
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING FRONT DEFINITELY                  
ARGUE FOR LEAVING THE MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT.                
HAVE KEPT LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INHERITED WITH                   
FAIRLY COOL READINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER               
50S ACROSS THE AREA.                                                            
LONG TERM...                                                                    
ON THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EXTREME             
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE               
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA                
BRINGING IN DRY...SINKING AIR. HAVE KEPT SOME CLOUDS AROUND DURING              
THE MORNING AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT EXPECT CLOUDCOVER TO             
SHARPLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE               
REGION. HAVE WARMED TOMORROW/S HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES SINCE WE ARE              
EXPECTING SOME SUNSHINE TOMORROW AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES             
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S AT LEAST OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                  
NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW TRANSITIONS INTO ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO             
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BEFORE THE             
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING FOR THIS               
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH THE                
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS                  
LATER...MOVING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY EVENING...AND THROUGH THE                
REST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT THE FRONT COULD SPEED UP BETWEEN            
NOW AND SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER. WILL KEEP                 
WATCHING THIS AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...RIGHT NOW             
IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE                 
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT                
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FRONT. WITH            
THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT...RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED             
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...LIMITING THE RETURN AND CHANCE FOR PRECIP            
WITH SATURDAY/S FRONT.                                                          
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
848 AM MDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE FREEZE                 
WARNING HEADLINE AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST                
SATELLITE TRENDS AS THE EXIT REGION OF H3 90KT JET DIVES SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL               
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS               
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SO ONLY ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES                 
DOWN SLIGHTLY WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WAS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE               
FROM THE MID 50S WEST/NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.               
MCGUIRE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM MDT THU OCT 19 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING.                   
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP TODAY AND FRIDAY                 
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION PHASE WITH              
THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.           
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RAISING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY           
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY...OR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN               
TO THE UPPER 20S AS WINDS SLACKEN AROUND SUNRISE.                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST              
COUPLE OF RUNS. NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH                
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS                   
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  HAVE USED MORE OF A GFS                    
SOLUTION WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC WIND FIELDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE               
SHORT TERM. THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY                
MADE MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY                    
TIMING AND COVERAGE AREAS OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES                  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACH AND JUST MANAGE TO REACH FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST                     
SECTIONS. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR                
LESS OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE                      
COLORADO COUNTIES.                                                              
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING              
TREND FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                 
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL...GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED SCT SNOW SHOWERS INTO                 
GRIDS IN FAR W CWA VCNTY OF KIWD. VSBY ON AWOS SINCE 1235Z SHOWING              
AROUND 3SM WITH REPORT OF SNOW ATTM FM THAT AREA. WIND AT KIWD IS               
MORE SW WHILE WINDS OVR W LK SUPERIOR SHOW MORE NW DIRECTION.                   
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCING THE SNOW SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...                    
SHORTWAVE TROF IS IN PROCESS OF CROSSING UPR MI. BEST CHANCE FOR                
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL CONTINUE OVR E SECTIONS AS NW WINDS FLOW OVER              
LK SUPERIOR. MORNING KSAW TAMDAR AND RAOB FM GRB SHOWED MOIST LAYER             
TO AROUND 800MB WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -5C. PCPN SHOULD PERSIST AS H85             
TEMPS SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTN AND MOISTURE IS SLOW TO DEPART. DID               
KEEP IDEA OF ENDING PCPN OVR W HALF THIS AFTN ONCE SHORTWAVE TROF               
PASSES BY AND THERE IS HINT OF SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING UPSTREAM OVR              
MN. PUBLISHED GRIDS OUT AND TEXT ZFPMQT UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS PCPN POTENTIAL WHICH WILL              
FREQUENTLY REVOLVE AROUND LAKE EFFECT PCPN.                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF                    
DOMINATING CNTRL CANADA INTO THE CNTRL/WRN CONUS WITH INDICATIONS OF            
A VORTEX REDEVELOPING OVER NRN MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE                   
LIFTING NE WITHIN THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BROUGHT SOME -RA TO MAINLY THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE            
FCST AREA LAST EVENING. TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE ACROSS              
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MT. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE OF INTEREST FRI.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE GULF            
OF ALASKA WAS APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVOLUTION OF THIS               
SYSTEM WILL BE A FCST ISSUE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THRU THE            
LONGWAVE TROF POSITION FROM HUDSON BAY S ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS.                
LAKE EFFECT PCPN HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL WITH CAA FROM THE NW.              
00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF -7C...SUFFICIENT FOR              
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SFC WATER TEMPS GENERALLY 8-9C.             
KINL SOUNDING INDICATED INVERSION BASE AT 5.4KFT WHILE IT WAS BASED             
AT 4.6KFT AT CWPL. AIRMASS BLO INVERSION WAS MOIST...FURTHER                    
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT PCPN DEVELOPMENT.                                        
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THIS              
MORNING FOR NW FLOW AFFECTED AREAS DUE TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.                
PCPN WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MOIST SUB INVERSION PROFILE                   
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE AIRMASS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE LAKE.                    
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DUE TO POOR SNOW GROWTH                  
MICROPHYSICS AS TEMPS WITHIN MOIST LAYER ARE GENERALLY ABOVE -10C.              
DID NOT MENTION ANY SNOW OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS FCST             
SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WELL OVER 1KFT DEEP.              
THIS AFTN...FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC RIDGE               
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASINGLY                        
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING                      
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES OFF THE LAKE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM               
THE W PER FCST SOUNDINGS WILL SPELL THE DEMISE OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN              
FROM W TO E LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN. AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT                   
PCPN...MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT               
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY             
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.                              
ANY LINGERING STRATOCU SHOULD DEPART EARLY THIS EVENING IN                      
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE              
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH                   
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE HEADING TO THE MID             
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY               
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. WILL                
THUS FAVOR LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT.                                     
ALTHOUGH FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                 
TONIGHT WILL PASS WELL S AND SE OF HERE FRI...MODELS STILL INDICATE             
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WITH A WEAK SFC LOW            
REFLECTION. IN THIS REGARD...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD THE                 
NAM SOLUTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW AND WEAK MOIST                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT VIEWED ON 290K SFC (AROUND 700MB) SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT LOW END CHC POPS FOR -SHRA SPREADING W TO E               
FRI AFTN/EVENING. AS SFC LOW TRACKS E FRI NIGHT...CAA GETS UNDERWAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C PER PREFERRED COOLER GFS                
SOLUTION. SO...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN TO DEVELOP OVER             
THE W DURING THE NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD THEN DEVELOP INTO               
THE ERN FCST AREA SAT AS CAA CONTINUES AROUND SOUTHERN SIDE OF                  
VORTEX WHICH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN OVER ONTARIO BY THAT                
TIME (850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY SAT AFTN). AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT PCPN...HAVE KEPT GOING CHC POPS             
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL REACH THE             
SRN PLAINS SAT AND WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. MODEL                 
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SE OF THE FCST            
AREA AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE. EVEN SO...IT              
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH MID/UPPER                     
TROF/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD            
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY             
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT (850MB TEMPS -7/-8C).                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1134 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
WILL ISSUE UPDATE...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH               
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND TO ADD HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN                     
DATABASE/DATABASE PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT/FRI. BASED ON ANTECEDENT                 
CONDITIONS...WHICH INCLUDE HIGH RIVER LEVELS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/S 1             
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...IN ADDITION TO THE PROSPECTS OF AN ADDITIONAL             
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WE HAVE ISSUED THE            
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM 6 AM EDT/FRI TO 6              
AM EDT/SAT.                                                                     
OTHERWISE...IN THE NEAR-TERM...HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON PRECIP ONSET            
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL                 
LATER THIS EVE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOME SHOWERS ARE              
ALREADY GRAZING EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL              
SHOWERS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THUS...DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS             
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHALLOW FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SE.                                                     
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE                
DEVELOPING JUST S OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH LATEST RUC                     
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BREAKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                
LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...KEPT EXPECTED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO              
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE                     
LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TO UPPER 60S TO THE S.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 315 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT, OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK, WILL SLOWLY             
HEAD EAST, AND STALL OVER THE LISTENING AREA BY LATE TODAY. AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, THEN                
TRACK UP ALONG THE FRONT, JUST TO OUR EAST, ON FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO            
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT, LASTING INTO FRIDAY                   
EVENING. ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE END MIGHT ALLOW THE RAIN TO SWITCH              
BRIEFLY TO SNOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BEFORE ENDING.             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN                 
TOUGH ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM                   
FALLING OUT OF THE 50S. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER INTO TODAY...AND            
BY THE TIME THEY WERE TO BURN OFF, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD. WITH PERSISTENT             
CLOUDS, WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING LOWER THAN MAV NOS, BUT NOT             
BY MUCH, AS IT HAS APPARENTLY CAUGHT ON TO THE TREND.                           
WILL KEEP A LOT OF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE FRONT              
STILL LOOKS TO BECOME ANA AS IT COMES INTO OUR AREA (AS WINDS ALOFT             
ALIGN WITH IT). WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN            
THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NEAR DARK FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY AND            
POINTS EASTWARD.                                                                
TONIGHT, THE SHORT WAVE, NOW FOUND JUST NORTH OF TEXAS, WILL                    
INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASINGLY                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A PRETTY POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE              
FRONT, NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING LOOKS              
TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. NEVERTHELESS PW VALUES OF 1.5              
INCHES OR MORE, WILL ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION               
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL. THE AIR               
MIGHT BE STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ACROSS            
MAINLY OUR ADIRONDACKS LATER FRIDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS            
VANTAGE POINT LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. MORE ABOUT THE RAINFALL CAN BE                 
FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.                                                 
BOTH MODELS WIND THE STORM UP QUITE A BIT AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF             
MAINE LATE FRIDAY (THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER). EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS              
TO PERK UP AND BUFFET THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP               
PLUCK THE INCREASINGLY COLORFUL LEAFS RIGHT OFF THE TREES. AT THIS              
POINT, THE WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA, BUT            
THE DAY CREW NEEDS TO REEXAMINE THE WINDS.                                      
ONE CHANGE WAS TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ALL OUR ZONES FRIDAY               
MORNING. WHILE SBCAPES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...STRONG DYNAMICS AND               
LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD PRODUCE LOW TOP STORMS, ESPECIALLY S AND E OF             
ALBANY. THERE IS EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE                
STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO               
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WILL MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS                  
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). BY AFTERNOON, THE WARM AIR SECTOR SHOULD HAVE            
PUSH FURTHER EAST WITH ANY THREAT OF THUNDER ENDING AS COLDER AIR               
BEGINS WORKING IN.                                                              
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY FALL IN SOME PLACES DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY. ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THIS TREND WITH BRIEFLY HOLDING TEMPS S              
AND E OF ALBANY, BEFORE THEY TOO LIKELY FALL LATER ON.                          
LOWER POPS A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT, GOING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN VALLEY               
LOCATIONS AND CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE WRAP            
AROUND. HAVE ENDED ALL PCPN BY 06Z.                                             
NICE WEATHER LOOKS TO FOLLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD            
IN. WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0C (SLIGHT COLDER ON THE GFS             
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NAM) HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A CATEGORY PER               
BOTH MAV/MET OUTPUT. STILL...IT WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND            
DAYS.                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BY SUNDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER              
MAKER, LOOKING MORE LIKE CLIPPER, ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                 
EARLIER RUNS HAD THIS FEATURE SLOWING DOWN, WHILE ENERGY FROM THE               
SOUTHERN BRANCH BECOME INJECTED INTO IT. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND                  
LATEST GFS NOW INDICATE THE TWAIN SHALL NEVER MEET, UNTIL WELL                  
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD MEAN ONLY A CLIPPER TYPE STORM WOULD AFFECT US             
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ANY SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT              
WOULD SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONSEQUENTLY THE ANTICIPATED            
RAINFALL WOULD LIGHTER. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE POLAR VORTEX,                    
INITIALLY FORECAST TO EAST OF HUDSON BAY, IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE               
OVER OUR HEAD! THIS CHANGE LOOKS A TAD UNREALISTIC AND THEREFORE WE             
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE EXTENDED, BUT WAIT TO SEE IF THE NEXT SET              
OF RUNS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE CHANGES.                                    
AVIATION...CLOUD DECK PERSISTS OVER THE AREA UNDER STRONG                       
INVERSION. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS OF 3500 FEET. MAY GET            
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SHOULD HAVE SOME                     
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH OVC DECK GOING TO BKN BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE            
STREAMING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO                
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS RAIN MOVES AND                   
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...FUELS REMAIN EXCESSIVELY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION                 
WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO DRY FURTHER. RH VALUES WILL ONLY            
DROP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS...THEN RISE BACK TO BETWEEN 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT.                   
TOMORROW...WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN              
TODAY. A S WIND AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GRADUALLY                
BACK TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25                 
KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A                   
GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF A GUSTY NW WIND.                                           
HYDROLOGY...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY ARE              
THE AREAS OF CONCERN AFTER RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TUESDAY AND             
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD                 
SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT                 
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES               
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS HAS THE               
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...WITH                
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE WRF HAS 1 1/2 TO            
2 1/2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY THE CATSKILLS              
AND CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR                 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND FULTON COUNTIES ARE THE LOWEST FOR 24-HOUR                
PERIOD WITH ONLY 2 1/2 INCHES...SO EXPECTED QPF APPROACHING THAT                
VALUE. LOOKING AT MORE RUNOFF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GROUND WET FROM               
LAST ONE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT (ESF)            
AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAINFALL LATE            
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084 FROM 6 AM               
     FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.                                                   
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1031 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO GRIDS/TEXT TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP WORDING. ALSO HAD TO              
ADJUST SKY COVER FOR PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE WRN AND              
CNTL ZONES. RUC AND WRF SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD HANG AROUND AS                  
LATE AS 18Z/19Z. DECREASING CLOUDS OR CLEARING WORDING DROPPED                  
INTO THE ZONE TEXT FOR THOSE AREAS. STRATUS MAY END UP HAVING A                 
SMALL EFFECT ON TEMPS FOR TODAY...BUT FOR NOW TRENDS SEEMED GOOD                
ENOUGH TO LEAVE ALONE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
251 PM MDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER              
TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ONSHORE                  
ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST ATTM. AT THE SFC...1-2MB 3HRLY PRESSURE                 
FALLS BEING NOTED ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO THE                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                           
FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION               
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS PAC NW SHORT WAVE                     
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WITH THE INCREASING            
FLOW ALOFT...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN                
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LEE TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS THE                        
I-25 CORRIDOR...A DECENT GRADIENT SETS UP FOR GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE              
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE WARMED UP LOWS ACROSS            
THE EASTERN SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH HAVE GONE              
AOB COLDEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THINKING               
THAT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO TANK             
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS             
RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIN LAYER              
OF MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL MTS WITH THE NORTHWEST                  
FLOW...THOUGH WITH POOR LAPSE RATES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY             
OF ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT.                                                     
FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN                  
COLORADO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING MOISTURE              
AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SNOW MODEL                
YIELDING 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH WITH SOME QG             
IMPLIED ASCENT HAVE GONE WITH UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ZONES 58 AND 60             
WITH LATER SHIFTS MAY BE NEEDING TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR LATE                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE FAR            
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY WESTERLY             
WINDS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH DOWNSLOPE HELPING            
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
...FCST CONCERNS THIS PD CONTINUE TO BE SAT WX SYSTEM AND A NEW                 
   SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...                                              
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WX SYSTEM FOR FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY.              
CURRENT WAT VAP IMGY CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM UP ACROSS S                  
ALASKA AND INTO NW CANADA. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN THE                 
IMGY. RAW MODEL DATA DOES NOT APPEARS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS SYSTEM             
CROSSES OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE MODEL MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN                 
CURRENT SAT PIX REPRESENTATION AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DATA.                
LATEST FCST BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY                  
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD COME ALONG WITH THE FROPA. RAW             
GRIDDED DATA SHOWS SYSTEM RATHER DRY BUT BELIEVE THIS IS UNDERDONE              
AND HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT TREND IN BRING CLOUDS INTO REGION FRI                
EVENING. AS FOR POPS...GIVEN LAPSE RATES AND FORCING...BELIEVE THERE            
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEADY WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS THE C            
MTNS FRI EVE INTO SAT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS SHORT TERM                         
DISCUSSION...HILITES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS REGION.                  
ON PLAINS...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG S FACING SLOPES OF              
S MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRI EVE...AND THEN DOWN TOWARDS              
THE S SANGRES/RATON MESA REGION ON SATURDAY. I AM QUITE CONFIDENT               
THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE COLDER TEMPS COME IN FRIDAY NITE AND                
INTO SAT. TEMPS SAT WILL LIKELY BE 20F COOLER THAN FRIDAY.                      
BY SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUN ON THIS DAY...BUT TEMPS WILL              
STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE.                                                      
FOR NEXT WEEK...NICE WX WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S            
WITH DRY WX.                                                                    
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE NOW            
SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN            
WEST. IF THE MODELS ARE A PERFECT PROG...THEN THIS WILL BE A PRETTY             
GOOD STORM...HOWEVER...FOR NOW...THE ONLY CHANGES I MADE TO THE LONG            
RANGE PERIOD WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE              
REGION WED NITE INTO THU. \/HODANISH                                            
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
624 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND INCLUDE CHC                 
OF EVENING TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF CWA THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL              
LATE EVENING.  RRM                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT - SUNDAY/...                                                
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN              
FAR WRN NY AND PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.               
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 70. LIS HAVE                  
GONE NEGATIVE.                                                                  
LARGER AREA OF RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NE AHEAD OF A                      
DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING LOW IN THE SE US. RAIN TO GET HERE                  
THIS EVENING AND CONTIUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LONG PERIOD OF               
RAIN WILL DROP OVER AN INCH EVERYWHERE WITH A STRIP CLOSE TO 2                  
INCHES FROM SW TO NE ELM TO UCA. THIS STRIP COULD SHIFT SOME                    
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW THE TRACK OF THE                 
LOW WILL BE OUR SE CWA FRI MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SIMILAR                    
TRACKS. FOR ENDING TIME GFS FASTEST MIDDAY WITH NAM IN THE AFTN.                
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ONLY EXPECTED TO RAISE THE MOHAWK AT UTICA TO               
OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER ALREADY RUNNING HIGH WITH DELATA DAM                
FULL. OTHER STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES BUT ARE NOT                
EXPECTED TO FLOOD.                                                              
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI PM...WINDS WILL PICK                
UP ESPECIALLY IN THE E. STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS                  
WILL BRING IN THE COLD AIR FASTER. FRI NGT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE                
WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW. POPS ARE AT 20 PERCENT WITH MARGINAL                
LAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE SHORT SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH WAA ON               
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SFC HIGH BUILDS WITH WEAK UL                 
RIDGING.                                                                        
FOR SUNDAY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF PRECIP. FOR              
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL              
CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS IN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY WITH                
THE NAM HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTN.  TAC                                            
AVIATION /191800Z - 201800Z/...                                                 
CIGS ARE VARYING FROM 030-035 OVER THE VALLEYS TO 015-020 OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS. AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD             
FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AT 18Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY.            
FRONT WILL STALL AND RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD              
OVER THE REGION AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN               
AND LOW IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE S AND W             
TOWARD 18Z AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE NE. -BMW                          
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY/...                                          
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDENCE. PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. SUNDAY NIGHT COLD                
FRONT MOVES OFF THE E COAST WITH COLD ADVECTION CROSSING THE LAKES              
DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS               
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH BY TUE               
FOR SNOW TO MIX INTO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY               
WITH JUST CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVES OFF COAST              
WED WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING AND DIMINISHING            
INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS. -BMW                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-037 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.              
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny