AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
930 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
LAST BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACRS CNTRL AR ATTM. LATEST RUC DATA             
SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE APCHG FROM THE WEST AIDING IN THE RAINFALL.            
DO EXPECT THIS RAIN TO TRACK OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING...              
WHICH FOLLOWS CURRENT FCST TRENDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY               
FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND WILL REWORD UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS             
TREND.                                                                          
REMAINING DATA FROM THE RUC AND LATEST MESOETA STILL SHOWING                    
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE FA LATER              
TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REGION WHERE H85 LOW LVL JET IS FCST TO ALIGN              
ITSELF AS UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO HEAD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WILL                  
PROBABLY LEAVE SMALL POPS IN FOR MOST AREAS TNGT.                               
STILL EXPECT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE FA LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.              
CAP MAY STILL PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE FORMATION OVER THE REGION...              
BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING. LOW POPS STILL LOOK GOOD. NO               
OTHER CHANGES TO FCST. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.  ..44..                     
.LZK...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                     
MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS TEMPS.                                                   
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL CONUS WITH A               
POTENT SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU SW STATES. WAA CLOUDS AHD OF DVLPG SFC             
LOW OVR THE RCKYS STREAMING INTO NRN PLAINS IN ZONAL WLY FLOW ALF.              
THIS CLD COVER WILL GRADUALLY WORK OVR UPR MI OVRNGT. HWVR...VERY               
DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDER RDG PER 00Z GRB AND APX SNDGS WILL...AT LEAST            
INITIALLY...ACT TO THIN MID AND HIGH CLDS AS THEY MOVE IN FM WEST.              
AS SHRTWV CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF SW STATES OVRNGT BELIEVE                
WAA MID LVL CLDS WL THICKEN OVR FA PER ETA FCST SNDGS.                          
BIG QUESTION OVRNGT WILL BE AFFECT OF CLD CVR ON MIN TEMPS. WINDS               
WILL BE LGT MOST OF OVRNGT WITH SFC RDG CNTRD OVR AREA AND DWPNTS IN            
SINGLE DIGITS! OVR W AND SW COUNTIES. GIVEN WL BE A PERIOD INITIALLY            
OVRNGT WHEN CLD CVR WL BE THIN...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL A BIT MORE                
THAN PREV FCST...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HAVE LWRD INLAND TEMPS TO 18                
INLAND OVR SRN AND WRN ZONES AND TO 15 INLAND FOR NCNTRL AND ERN                
ZONES WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE LAST PLACE TO REACH. WL KEEP TEMPS                  
AROUND 27 NEAR GRT LAKES.                                                       
.MQT...WINTER STORM WATCH MIZ001>007-009>014.                                   
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1000 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                     
...MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...                   
CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT ARE THE QUESTION OF FROST AND THAT BRINGS INTO            
QUESTION WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL ACTUALLY MOVE IN.                                 
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA.  WINDS ARE EITHER CALM OR             
LIGHT NORTHWEST.  THE 850 RIDGE WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z.  AT             
THAT POINT WINDS WILL BE CALM ACROSS THE CWA AND SKIES WILL REMAIN              
CLEAR.  CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S SOUTH TO THE MID TEENS             
TO NEAR 20 NORTH.  THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AT 01Z WAS NEAR THE                   
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THAT MATCHED THE 700 MB 70 PCT AREA ON THE 00Z            
RUC VERY NICELY.  BOTH THE AWIPS TIMING TOOL AND THE RUC SUGGEST                
THOSE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN AFTER 07Z AND NOT COVER THE CWA UNTIL               
12Z.  THAT WILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS TO GET BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.             
ALREADY MANY AREAS IN OUR NRN CWA ARE CLOSE TO FREEZING.                        
SO... THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS PART OF THE FORECAST IS FINE.  I                
WILL LOWER THE LOWS TO 25 TO 30 NORTH GO FOR 27 TO 32 OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA.  I WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROST OF CONDITIONAL                 
ACROSS THE CWA. WITH LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND LIGHT WINDS...               
HARD TO SEE WHY THERE WOULD NOT BE AT LEAST SOME FROST.                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
610 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
LATEST RUC/MESOETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AREA IS LARGELY                  
INFLUENCED BY A 250 MB DEEP STABLE LAYER IN CONTACT WITH THE GROUND             
WHICH IS CAPPED AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THICK CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF               
DRIZZLE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER THIS EVENING. 18Z MESOETA INDICATES              
INCREASING ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN                  
03-06Z WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY THIS TIME. ASSOCIATED             
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ZONES AND HWO WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO                   
EMPHASIZE DELAYED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.                            
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
958 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH DIVERGENCE INDUCED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION              
OF UPPER JET/WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF CWFA ATTM. 00Z H3/H5                 
CHARTS SHOW THIS WELL. H85 CHART SHOWS DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE...BUT             
QUITE A GRADIENT WITH GSO DRY AND FFC VERY MOIST. SFC DEW POINTS                
HAVE INCREASED AS WELL...XCPT MUCH MORE SLOWLY NRN TIER. WILL BE IN             
AN ISENTROPIC LIFT/RH MIN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. RUC/18Z ETA SHOW GOOD             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT GETTING GOING BY               
09Z. WILL LOWER POPS WHERE CURRENTLY LIKELY AND TRY TO WORD PRECIP              
TOWARD MORNING. WILL LEAVE SPRINKLES AS IS SINCE PRECIP COULD MOVE              
IN BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT ATMOS WILL BE LAST TO MOISTEN. TEMPS LOOK              
GOOD AND EXPECT NO CHANGES.                                                     
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RWH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
845 PM MDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
ROCKIES. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. PROBLEM                  
CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TYPE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE               
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN PART OF CWA...WITH DEWPOINTS             
AROUND 32F ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DRY             
AIR OVER NORTH DAKOTA HAS BECOME MORE MOIST AS SNOW FALLING IN AREA             
OF WARM ADVECTION. 00Z RUC/ETA CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE 18Z MODELS             
IN KEEPING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +2C TO +4C SOUTH OF I-90 OVERNIGHT.            
00Z KUNR SOUNDING HAD FREEZING LEVEL ABOUT 1000FT HIGHER THAN THE               
18Z ETA/AVN. 00Z ETA INITIALIZED ABOUT 3C AT 850 FOR RAPID CITY.                
THROUGH THE NIGHT...FREEZING LEVEL/WET BULB ZERO STAYS AROUND                   
7000-8000FT MSL. AT THIS TIME...ONLY REAL THREAT FOR SNOW REMAINS IN            
THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                
LACK OF DRY AIR AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE                 
AREA...WILL BE HARD FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO              
SNOW ON THE PLAINS EAST OF BLACK HILLS. BY THE TIME IT DOES CHANGE              
OVER TO SNOW AROUND RAPID CITY...BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST              
TO BE OVER.                                                                     
WILL UPDATE FORECAST...AND CUT BACK ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY                
OVER THE PLAINS. ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TOO.                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO CCF                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
310 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM...QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER             
CENTRAL TX. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER OVER NORTH TX            
WITH CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TX. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER               
SOUTHERN CA PROGGED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST U.S. TONIGHT AS LOW                  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY BRINGING SURFACE TROUGH/PACIFIC FRONT INTO              
CENTRAL TX AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL TX RETREATS                   
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF             
THE PLAINS SATURDAY...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER TO KEEP                   
SURFACE TROUGH/STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THROUGH              
SUNDAY. REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT IF             
CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX BUT NOT LIKELY TO REACH CWA             
ANYWAY. OTHERWISE...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH 500MB               
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.                              
EXTENDED...MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 500MB RIDGE OVER             
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND WESTERN GULF NOT PROGGED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO                 
INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH TX PROVIDING BREEZY CONDITIONS            
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                         
MARINE...WV AND IR SATL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CA CLOSED LOW IS             
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SW AS THE 5H KICKER MOVES SOUTH            
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.  THE LATEST RUC DATA SHOWS A WELL DEFINED                
SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING PGF                
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.  WILL KEEP THE SCA IN PLACE OVER               
THE BAY WATERS THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS MAY                    
DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS AS THE SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER                   
SUNSET.  OFFSHORE... CONDITIONS WILL PUSH PAST SCA LEVELS LATE                  
TONIGHT OR EARLY SAT AS THE PGF CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.  CONDITIONS               
SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE CA 5H LOW IS QUICKLY INGESTED INTO THE             
FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES.  THE 5H KICKER            
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE                
COUNTRY RESULTING IN ANOTHER CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW AROUND WED              
OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA FOR THE            
LOWER TX COAST.                                                                 
BRO NU 075/090 076/091 076 00/00/00/00/00                                       
HRL NU 074/093 075/094 075 00/00/00/00/00                                       
MFE NU 075/094 076/095 076 05/05/00/00/00                                       
RGC NU 073/095 074/096 074 05/05/00/00/00                                       
SPI NU 076/085 076/085 076 00/00/00/00/00                                       
SYNOPTIC-PUBLIC...CASTILLO.61                                                   
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...SPEECE.60                                                
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...SCA TONIGHT FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175.                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                     
WEAK 500HPA SHORTWAVE TRIGGERING -SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA AND              
POINTS NORTH BENEATH A HIGH BASED CAPPING INVERSION. COLD FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY LURKING NORTH OF THE CWA WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THIS                   
AFTERNOON. 15Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SOUTHWARD                  
MOVING BOUNDARY(NOT SURFACED-BASED) FROM KHYI-KSGR WHICH MAY ACT IN             
CONCERT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO SUSTAIN/DEVELOP                    
CONVECTION. STILL ANTICIPATE THESE FEATURES WILL EXIT THE AREA BY               
AFTERNOON AND NO POPS WILL BE NEEDED. 1000-850HPA THICKNESS/850HPA              
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ENOUGH              
CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER WITH 1.5" PWATS AND FORCING FROM SEABREEZE               
BOUNDARY SO NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES. SIERRA MADRE THERMAL CYCLONE            
AND TIGHTNING PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS CURRENT WIND FORECAST.                 
MARINE...EARLY MORNING FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET AS QUICK LOOK AT NEW            
RUC SHOWS SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS AFTERNOON AND SOMEWHAT                   
STRONGER WINDS ABV SFC BEGIN TO MIX DOWNWARD.                                   
.CRP...SCA GMZ230-235.                                                          
85/PUBLIC                                                                       
70/MARINE-AVIATION                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
940 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING            
WILL ALLOW THE SCT SC FIELDS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  THE                
CURRENT RUC DATA MAINTAINS THE BROAD RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND             
THIS SHOULD PUSH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR OR ABOVE NUMERICAL                
GUIDANCE. THE RUC MSL FIELDS STEADY TIGHTEN THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH                
WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.  SURFACE WINDS                
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRIT.  CURRENT ZFP LOOKS GOOD.                
MARINE...GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR              
SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE BAY WATERS LATER TODAY AND WILL APPROACH SCA              
LEVELS OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT.  THIS TREND IS WELL-REFLECTED IN THE             
CURRENT CWF AND NO CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM.                                       
SYNOPTIC-AVIATION-MARINE...60/MESO...VEGA                                       
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...SCA TODAY FOR GMZ130.                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1020 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2002                                                     
HI CI TO THE NRN HALF THE CWA THIS AFTN. RUC AND AVN PICK THIS OUT              
NICELY. BOTH SHOW IT DIMINISHING TOWARD EVNG. WL GO PC N AND MS S               
WITH LOWER TEMPS N AND RAISE MAXES A LITTLE IN THE S. REMAINDER OF              
FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                                                
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
JAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO LONGER TERM                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
230 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
I WILL BEGIN WITH ELEVATED CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS MORNING.  FIRST               
WAVE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING FRI EVENING, BUT              
ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHERN IA.  THIS HAS SINCE SHIFTED NE.                
WHOLESALE THETA-E ADVECTION IS IN PROGRESS WITH WIDE ZONE OF                    
ELEVATED CONVECTION ON ITS WAY FROM KS/NE.  OUN SOUNDING SHOWED                 
CONSIDERABLE ELEVATED CAPE AND MOISTURE AT 850 MB (13C TD).  RUC 03Z            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE              
CELLS 15-18Z AS ELEVATED CAPES JUMP OVER 1000 J/KG IN SOUTHERN IA.              
AMPLE SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL,               
WITH SEVERE THREAT EITHER DIMINISHING OR SHIFTING INTO NORTHERN IA              
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                                                             
NEW CONVECTION IN W TX IS HANDLED BY META/AVN WELL IT APPEARS,                  
TAKING IT RAPIDLY INTO ERN KS AND MO AROUND MIDDAY, AND AFFECTING               
MAINLY OUR SE CWA.  PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT TAKING SHAPE NICELY ON WATER            
VAPOR IN NM AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INTO WRN KS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A               
BREAK IN PRECIP BY EARLY AFTERNOON, LEAVING CONSIDERABLE LOW                    
CLOUDS.  MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH LOW AND TRIPLE                
POINT TAKING AIM AT SW IA BY 00Z.  HOWEVER, ONE COULD ARGUE THAT                
SURFACE LOW MAY END UP FURTHER N THAN PROGGED GIVEN WHERE THE DRY               
SLOT IS NOW TAKING SHAPE.  CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS TO HAMPER                     
DESTABILIZATION EXISTS, BUT CLOUDS ARE RATHER SHALLOW IN SOUTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS UPSLOPE REGION, WHICH SHOULD ERODE WELL AFTER DRY SLOT              
MOVES NE AND THOROUGH MIXING ENSUES.  0-3KM SHEAR QUITE IMPRESSIVE,             
WITH 0-1KM HELCITY ABOVE 150 M2/S2 NEAR TRIPLE POINT.  0-3KM CAPES              
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF HIGHER TORNADIC POTENTIAL IF STORMS CAN FIRE.                 
EYEBALL VALUES ARE ABOVE 50 J/KG, IF NOT APPROACHING 100-150 J/KG.              
ALONG WITH VERY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS, I HAVE CONCERNS AS SPC DOES FOR            
STRONG TORNADOES.  META LAST SEVERAL RUNS IS INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING            
CONVECTION (BASED ON UPPER DIVERGENCE AND QPF CONTOURS) NEAR TRIPLE             
POINT AND TRAVEL NE ALONG WARM FRONT ALONG AND JUST S OF I-80                   
CORRIDOR.  HIGH END MODERATE RISK IS CERTAINLY ON TARGET, AND WILL              
HEAVILY WEIGHT THE TORNADO THREAT IN OUR HWO FROM I-80 S.  NOT VERY             
CONCERNED ABOUT FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN SPEED OF WHICH RAIN AREA IS               
MOVING.  OUR SOIL CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF RAIN RIGHT NOW.  CURRENT              
TEMP/WIND FORECAST LOOKING FINE AS WELL, SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS              
REQUIRED.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...                                                                  
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS, WILL MAINTAIN SHRA CHANCE EARLY SUNDAY IN                    
NORTHERN IA.  CLEARING WILL BE SLOW ON SUNDAY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT             
DURING THE EVENING.  FOG THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST AS SURFACE RIDGE                 
PASSES OVER.  WILL ALSO ADD CHANCES OF TSRA AS APPEARS A RATHER WET             
PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THIS WEEK WITH DECENT W-E THERMAL ZONE NEARBY              
AND WSW UPPER FLOW.  BEST SHOT OF TRSA, AND POSSIBLY MCS ACTIVITY               
GIVEN FAVORABLE LLJ IMPINGEMENT ON BOUNDARY, WOULD BE WEDNESDAY.  WILL          
NOT MAKE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS BEYOND TUESDAY.                                      
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
231 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
TIMING ON EXITING PCPN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES TODAY              
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE                                             
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THIS MORNING OVER SE COLORADO AS OUR                
UPPER LVL TROF CROSSES INTO ERN NM. MODELS APPEARING TO HAVE A                  
DECENT HANDLE WITH THIS AND VERIFIED WELL PER PROFILERS WITH A 120KT            
JET ENTERING THE PANHANDLE OF TX. VICI PROFILERS ALSO SUPPORTING                
THE LLJ THAT ALL MODELS PROGGED DEVELOPING IN WRN OK/WRN KS EARLY               
THIS MORNING. THIS CONTINUES TO PLACE WESTERN KANSAS IN THE RIGHT               
EXIT REGION OF THE 25H JET WITH A LLJ OVER OUR ERN CWA. I295-I305               
ALSO SHOWING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE EARLY              
IN THE DAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. ALL THIS SUPPORTS                   
KEEPING A MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA GOING EARLY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY                 
SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. WILL USE            
RUC AS TIMING IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH PLACES OUR VORT LOBE AROUND EHA            
BY 12Z AND IN OUR ERN CWA BY 18Z. ALREADY RADAR SHOWING PCPN                    
DEVELOPING IN AND JUST SW OF THE CWA AND AM EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO              
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING OUR VORT             
LOBE APPROACHES. GIVEN TIMING OF VORT LOBE CROSSING WESTERN KS THIS             
MORNING WILL GO WITH 20 POPS IN THE SW CWA THIS MORNING AND 50 POPS             
IN THE NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS TIME SEVERE THREAT NOT LOOKING GOOD              
THIS MORNING FROM THESE ELEVATED TSRA. BEST INSTAB APPEARS TO HOLD              
OFF UNTIL WELL AFTER PCPN HAS EXITED THE CWA.                                   
BY 18Z SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS SUBSIDENCE                 
DEVELOPS BEHIND OUR WAVE. TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE AT THE SFC AND                
WITH SOME MIXING LIKELY THE WIND ADV FOR TODAY STILL LOOKS                      
REASONABLE. OUR SFC LOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW                 
DEVELOPS IMPROVES. 85H TEMPS RANGING FROM 18C IN THE NE TO 21C IN THE           
SOUTHWEST. WITH THIS IN MIND BELIEVE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE RIGHT             
IDEA WITH MID TO UPPER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.                                 
A COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR             
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO CNTL KS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS              
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE            
DAY AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ETA/AVN            
BOTH SUGGESTING A SE FLOW BY 00Z MON OVER THE LOWEST 2-3KFT,                    
HOWEVER THE NGM TAKES A MORE SW FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS. AT THIS TIME              
WILL FAVOR THE ETA/AVN GIVEN LEE TROF DEVELOPMENT. THIS DOES NOT                
SUPPORT FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPARED TO SATURDAY SO WILL                
FOLLOW THE ETA/AVN 85H TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.                               
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES PLANNED              
IN THE LATER PERIODS.                                                           
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE              
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.                                  
DDC   78  41  71  46 /  30   0   0   0                                          
GCK   77  41  72  43 /  30   0   0   0                                          
EHA   76  45  75  44 /  10   0   0   0                                          
LBL   78  44  73  46 /  20   0   0   0                                          
HYS   75  40  68  44 /  50   0   0   0                                          
P28   79  42  71  51 /  50   0   0   0                                          
.DDC...NONE.                                                                    
FCSTID = 18/02                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW CONFLUENT WNWLY FLOW ALF             
OVR THE GRT LKS BTWN NRN BRANCH VORTEX OVR HUDSON BAY AND BLDG SRN              
BRANCH UPR RDG OVR THE GLFMEX. AT THE SFC...1028MB HI PRES OVR CWA              
THIS MRNG IN SUBSIDING RIGHT EXIT OF 120KT H3 JET MAX AT INL                    
BRINGING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR...00Z PW ONLY 0.11 INCH AT             
INL AND 0.13 INCH AT APX. AIRMASS OVR CWA UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WITH              
H85 TEMPS ARND -7C. SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN TEENS AND 20S. SOME LGT              
SN HAS BKN OUT ACRS NRN PLAINS AS WEAK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THRU THE              
NRN PLAINS IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX INTERACTING WITH MSTR RETURN/WAD ON             
W SIDE OF GRT LKS RDG AND N OF SHARP SFC-H85 WARM FNT. HI CLD                   
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WX DRIFTING INTO NW GRT LKS.               
FARTHER UPSTREAM...POTENT NRN BRANCH SHRTWV DROPPING S ALG THE W                
COAST EJECTING VIGOROUS SHRTWV OVR THE DESERT SW ENE. THIS SYS HAS              
TAKEN ON A NEGATIVE TILT...AND WV LOOP/RAOBS INDICATE ABUNDANT MSTR             
FLOWING NE AHD OF SHRTWV AS SWLY H3 WINDS AS HI AS 150KT OVR NRN MEX            
RETURNING SUBTROPICAL MSTR. 12Z-00Z H3 HGT FALLS OVR 200M NOTED ACRS            
THE SW WITH THIS SYS...AND PW UP TO 1.5 INCHES HAS MOVED AS FAR N AS            
OKC...WITH H85 DWPTS AS HI AS 15C IN TX S OF MAIN H85 WARM FNT IN               
SRN PLAINS.                                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND EVOLUTION/TRACK OF                 
VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING ENE FM THE SRN ROCKIES...SPECIFICALLY PCPN              
TYPE/AMTS/TIMING AND GOING HEADLINES. WITH VIGOROUS DYNAMICS AND                
MSTR RETURN OVR COLD DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVR GRT LKS...CONDITIONS              
RIPE FOR A LARGE AMT OF SN SOMEWHERE.                                           
00Z ETA MODEL FCST OF SW SHRTWV REMAINS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH            
PREVIOUS RUNS. 00Z ETA APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON SEPARATION                
BTWN PCPN OVR ND AND DVLPG PCPN FARTHER S CLOSER TO MAIN H85 WARM               
FNT...SO ETA GENERALLY MODEL OF CHOICE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT H3 JET             
MAX IN SE QUADRANT/DRY SLOT OF SHRTWV MAY HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED A               
BIT ON THE LGT SIDE...130KT VS 150KT OBSVD FM ACARS DATA IN NRN MEX.            
00Z ANAL ON H5 VORT MAGNITUDE ALSO HIER THAN FCST BY PREVIOUS RUNS.             
THE IMPLICATION OF THIS ERROR IS THAT STORM TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE                
ADJUSTED A BIT FARTHER N THAN FCST.                                             
FOR FCST DETAILS...ETA SHOWS WEAK SHRTWV/UPR DVGC CAUSING SN IN ND              
THIS MRNG TENDING TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN AS THESE MECHANISMS RUN               
INTO UPR CONFLUENCE/DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TDAY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF               
DRY AIR IN PLACE...THE MAIN IMPACT FM THIS DISTURBANCE WL BE TO                 
THICKEN CLDS W TO E ACRS CWA. MAIN ACTION BEGINS LATER TDAY AS UPR              
JET FM THE SW LIFTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURG THE AFTN AND NRLY                  
COINCIDENT H5 SHRTWV/991MB SFC LO REACHES NR OMA BY 00Z...A FCST                
CONSISTENT WITH NGM/AVN/CAN MODELS AS H3 JET MAX OVR ONTARIO INCRSES            
TO 140KT BY 00Z SUN IN TIGHTENING HGT GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF                    
SHRTWV...ETA SHOWS H4-2 DVGC INCRSG OVR ESPECIALLY THE SRN TIER ZNS.            
HOWEVER...DIFFLUENT LLVL FLOW REMAINS ESE OUT OF DRY HI TO THE E ALL            
DAY. SINCE H85 WARM FNT PROGGED TO REACH ONLY IL/WI BORDER BY 00Z               
WITH TIGHTEST THERMAL PACKING/BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-7 FRONTGEN               
FORCG/H7 UVV REMAINING S OF ALL BUT MNM COUNTY...BELIEVE THE ETA AND            
OTHR MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING PCPN INTO NRN TIER THIS            
AFTN WITH LEADING EDGE OF H7 PROGGED TO ARRIVE ONLY TOWARD 00Z. EVEN            
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE N OF STORM TRACK...BEST DYNAMICS WL IMPACT            
ONLY MNM COUNTY. SO WL BE SLOWER THAN MODELS/MOS TO BRING PCPN OVR              
NRN TIER...AND KEEP PCPN OUT OF ERN ZNS AS IN GOING FCST. BUT                   
CATEGORICAL WORDING FOR WI BORDER SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER. PCPN TYPE               
THIS AFTN A QUESTION MARK. XPCT INSOLATION THRU INCRSG CLDS TO RAISE            
TEMPS INTO THE 40S AT MOST PLACES TDAY...WITH WARMEST READINGS OVR              
THE E WHERE CLD WL BE THINNER LONGER. BUT WITH LO DWPTS IN                      
PLACE...EVAP COOLING SHUD OFFSET THE DIURNAL WRMG TO A CERTAIN                  
EXTENT. ETA FCST SDNGS FOR SRN TIER INDICATE WBLB ABV ZERO THRU                 
LOWEST 1000 FT...PROBABLY ENUF TO ALLOW A MIX WITH RA AT THE ONSET.             
DEPTH OF ABV 0 WBLB TEMP SHALLOWER FARTHER N...SO ANY PCPN THAT                 
DVLPS HERE SHUD BE ALL SN EVEN AT THE ONSET. XPCT LTL IF ANY SN                 
ACCUMULATION BEFORE SUNSET.                                                     
ETA AND OTHR MODELS PUSH SFC LO INTO SRN LK MI BY 00Z...WITH TIGHT              
INCRSGLY CYC FLOW DVLPG ACRS CWA. ETA AND NGM QUITE PROLIFIC                    
GENERATING QPF (ETA FCSTS 1.33 INCHES QPF BY 12Z SUN AT MNM)...BUT A            
NUMBER OF QUESTION MARKS REMAIN. MOST SGNFTLY...H5 VORT TRACK IS                
WELL S OF CWA WITH BEST H85 THERMAL PACKING/H85-7 FRONTGEN/H85-5                
QVECTOR CNVGC/H100-7 MSTR CNVGC REMAINING MAINLY S OF CWA AS                    
WELL...ONLY MNM COUNTY WITHIN THE MOST SGNFT FORCG. EVEN IF STORM               
TRACK ADJUSTED N BY 50 MILES...NRN TIER WOULD STILL MISS OUT ON BEST            
DYNAMICS/MOISTENING. BEST UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX IN ONTARIO              
PULLS E DURG THE OVRNGT AS JET DEPARTS. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K             
TO 295K SFCS DVLPS (H7-75) WITH 3G/KG AVBL OVR THE N...4G/KG OVR THE            
S...BUT WND SPEEDS OVR THE NRN TIER ONLY 10 TO 15 KTS. ON THE OTHR              
HAND...INCRSG NE H925 WND UP TO 40KTS FCST BY ETA TNGT WL ENHANCE               
PCPN RATES OVR NCNTRL HIER TERRAIN...BUT H85 TEMPS FCST ARND -5C WL             
RESULT IN MINIMAL IF ANY LK ENHANCEMENT (DELTA-T 6-7C BLO 8C                    
THRESHOLD). THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT LWR AVN QPF PREFERRED FOR CWA               
TNGT...WITH A MAX ABOUT 0.75 INCHES IN MNM COUNTY. ETA BUFKIT FOR               
MNM SHOWS ALL SN AT MNM TNGT...BUT AVN MOS INDICATES A MIX WITH RA.             
FCST H100-85 THKNS IN TOUGH TO CALL 1305M RANGE...SO WL MAINTAIN                
DAYSHIFT FCST OF MIX OF RA/SN NR LK MI ONCE EVAP COOLING MECHANISM              
DIMINISHES THIS EVNG. CHCS OF MIX WITH RA WL BE HIER IF STORM TRACK             
IS A BIT FARTHER N. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE WATCH ONLY TO WRNG IN MNM             
COUNTY...WHERE INTERIOR ZNS HAVE BEST CHC TO PICK UP HVY SN. WL GO              
WITH ADVYS REST OF ZNS WITH KEWEENAW COUNTY ONLY ODD ZN OUT AND WORD            
ADVY IN CMX COUNTY FOR THE FAR S. SN WL DIMINISH LATE AT NGT OVR THE            
W AS AVN/ETA INDICATE H5 SHRTWV AXIS PUSHING E AND DNVA/H85-5                   
QVECTOR DVGC DVLPG DESPITE LINGERING CYC FLOW. FCST WNDS OVR THE LK             
MI ZNS UP TO 50KTS AT 2K FT JUSTIFY CONTG WINDY WORDING FOR                     
DELTA/MNM COUNTIES. FCST MINS NR MOS.                                           
UPR SHRTWV/SFC LO PULL E ON SUN WITH LINGERING DYNAMICS OUT OF ERN              
ZNS BY AFTN. ALTHOUGH DEEP MSTR PULLS OUT WITH STORM SYS AND                    
DYNAMICS...LINGERING CYC FLOW PROMISES TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLD ARND               
ALL DAY. BEST CHC FOR AFTN CLRG OVR THE FAR W...WHERE AVN/ETA SHOW              
WEAK SFC RDG MOVG OVHD BY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW              
PLENTY OF LINGERING LLVL MSTR...SO RELUCTANT TO BE TOO AGRESSIVE                
WITH CLRG. WL TEND TOWARD HIER MAV GUIDANCE OVR THE FAR W WHERE MORE            
INSOLATION IS PSBL...BUT TEND LWR OVR THE E AND CNTRL TOWARD FWC/ETA            
BLYR TEMPS.                                                                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
.MQT...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT AND EARLY SUN MIZ012.                             
       SN ADVY MIZ001>007-009>011-013-014.                                      
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
125 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY                           
SYNOPSIS -- LATEST REGIONAL 88D REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC/IR IMAGERY SHOWS            
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM S-CNTRL NEB TO ERN KS.  THESE               
STORMS ARE FORMING IN A ZONE OF INTENSE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC               
LIFT AND ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE, PER OUN 27/00Z              
SOUNDING AND 27/03Z RUCII DATA.  AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW WAS            
SITUATED OVER NERN NM AT 06Z, WITH THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT STILL WELL            
TO OUR S, OVER N-CNTRL TX.                                                      
FORECAST -- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AND THEN             
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.  THE ETA AND AVN ARE NOW            
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24                
HOURS.  IN THE SHORT TERM, CONTINUED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE             
LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY            
THIS MORNING.  27/03Z RUCII FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NEB SHOW                
MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 09Z WITH SUFFICIENT             
SHEAR THROUGH THIS BUOYANT LAYER TO SUPPORT ELEVATED MESOCYCLONES.              
THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY              
OVER NM AS OF 06Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY EJECT NEWD TODAY WITH             
A POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING FROM N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB INTO                
SWRN IA BY 28/00Z.  THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA TODAY               
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON TWO FACTORS:  1)  THE AMOUNT OF QUALITY                   
MOISTURE RETURN, AND 2) THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION AHEAD OF             
THE SURFACE LOW.  06Z METAR DATA SUGGESTS 1) MAY BE THE MOST                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THE GOOD SURFACE DEWPOINTS (I.E. 55-65) ARE STILL                
OVER TX.  EVEN WITH INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS, THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY             
NOT MAKE IT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR SURFACE TRAJECTORIES (SE).  THUS,             
THE BEST CHANCES FOR 50S DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE ADVECTIVE, BUT FROM              
AIRMASS SATURATION DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  THIS LEADS TO                
2).  HOW MUCH AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW?             
BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO                
SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 18Z, SO IT APPEARS SOME DESTABILIZATION IS                  
POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM, ONLY 500-1000 J/KG WILL            
LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO INITIATE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.  LOW LCL              
HEIGHTS AND HIGH 0-1 KM SRH/SHEAR VALUES NE OF THE SURFACE LOW,                 
SUGGEST GOOD LOW-TOPPED TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL *IF* CONVECTION            
CAN INITIATE IN OUR CWA.  WE WILL HIT THIS SCENARIO RATHER HARD                 
ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES IN THE HWO.                                               
THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE E TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING             
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.  BOTH THE AVN/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT               
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE N OF A FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY                   
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE             
ON HIGHS/LOWS.                                                                  
IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS ON THE NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION FORMAT...PLEASE             
E-MAIL THEM TO W-OAX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL DAVE THEOPHILUS AT              
402 359-5166.                                                                   
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
330 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM            
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                        
IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/AVN/NGM/RUC IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT BRINGING            
LOW FROM ROCKIES ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER WITH TIME. LARGE             
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALREADY IN ADVANCE OF LOW ENTERING             
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PROGS CORRECTLY INTENSIFY THIS LOW AS MANY           
FACTORS FAVOR ALREADY IN PLACE. 850 MILLIBAR AND 1000/850 MILLIBAR              
LOW LEVEL WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME AHEAD OF SURFACE SYSTEM           
WITH NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET POINTED AT CWA MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z            
TONIGHT. GOOD UPPER JET WITH ASSOCIATED 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY NOW              
EJECTING OUT FROM BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AROUND TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA              
WITH PROVIDE ENERGY TO APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAIN CONCERN FOR CWA IS              
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. PROGS AGREE THAT DURATION OF RAIN WILL            
OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE VERY DEEP LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE DOES NOT GET PULLED INTO SYSTEM...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY             
EFFICIENT IN SQUEEZING OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PROGGED                      
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AND RANGE FROM 0.80 TO 1.2                
INCHES DURING EVENT. 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CURRENTLY RUNNING              
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.8 INCHES. DID CONTEMPLATE A FLOOD WATCH FOR                   
TONIGHT...AS THIS IS A VERY CLOSE CALL. HAVE OPTED HOWEVER...TO                 
REISSUE ESF AND MENTION/HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN BODY OF                 
FORECAST. FEEL THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME BETWEEN OCCURANCE OF                  
RAINFALL AND RESPONSE OF RIVERS...GIVEN THEIR CURRENT LEVELS...TO               
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY IF MORE MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED              
INTO SYSTEM.                                                                    
IN THE FAR TERM...HAVE SIDED WITH AVN WHICH LINGERS PRECIPITATION               
OVER CWA A LITTLE LONGER SUNDAY. WILL ADJUST THIS IN ZONES AND WILL             
NOT BREAK OUT CLOUDS EITHER...SO WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT.                 
WILL ADD RAIN CHANCE FOR TUESDAY AS PER NEW AVN GUIDANCE.                       
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                     
FCST CONCERN IS ONSET OF PRECIP/PTYPE AND HEADLINES.                            
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT INTO CNTRL PLAINS                
WITH IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DRIVING THRU KS. STRONG SHORTWAVE COMBINED             
WITH DEVELOPING CLASSIC COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE BTWN 120KT JET              
OVER ONTARIO AND 130KT JET MOVING INTO PLAINS IS PRODUCING                      
STRONG/BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER CNTRL U.S. THIS HAS FORCED                   
LOW-LEVEL JET TO INCREASE TO 60KTS WITH COPIOUS MOISTURE SURGING N.             
PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO AN INCH AS FAR N AS IA WHICH IS ABOUT 200PCT            
OF NORMAL FOR THAT AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE AREA OF                  
PRECIP ACROSS PLAINS AND MIDWEST.                                               
DESPITE INITIAL VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...LEAD PRECIP BAND IS MAKING             
FAIRLY STEADY PROGRESS NE THIS MORNING. SUBFREEZING WETBULB PROFILE             
IN THE SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SFC LAYER ON 12Z KGRB SOUNDING               
ARGUES FOR MAINLY SN AS PRECIP STARTS TO REACH THE SFC. SFC DWPTS               
INITIALLY IN THE TEENS/20S OVER FA ALSO LEND SUPPORT FOR MAINLY SN              
AS PRECIP BEGINS. SO SNOW SHOULD BE DOMINANT PTYPE THIS AFTN.                   
HOWEVER...CAN'T IGNORE HIGH LATE APRIL SUN ANGLE WHICH WILL HAVE                
SOME IMPACT DESPITE THICK CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL INFLUENCE POTENTIAL            
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MORE SO THAN PTYPE. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT               
FCST WORDING OF SN MIXED WITH RN. PRECIP SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT              
TODAY AS WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY RUC ANALYSIS OVER SRN MN               
MOVES NE WITH PRECIP BAND HAVING TO WORK THRU DRY LAYER. THE LIGHTER            
PRECIP COMBINED WITH DIM SUN THRU CLOUD DECK SHOULD RESULT IN                   
MINIMAL SN ACCUMULATIONS...AND ROADWAYS SHOULD REMAIN JUST WET.                 
FOR THIS REASON...NOT INCLINED TO START HEADLINES ANY SOONER THAN IS            
INDICATED IN CURRENT FCST AS MAIN SHOW IS TONIGHT.                              
STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS MAIN                
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WRN LAKES. 06Z ETA TRENDED FARTHER N WITH MUCH             
HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER FA...GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1 INCH MORE THAN              
00Z RUN! 06Z ETA HAS TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.5 INCHES OVER KEWEENAW TO            
A SWATH OF 1.75 INCHES FROM KIMT TO KISQ...INCLUDING 1.5 INCHES AT              
KMQT. WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET AS 06Z AVN SHOWED NO CHANGES FROM               
ITS 00Z RUN. WILL AWAIT 12Z MODEL RUN DATA...BUT STRENGTH OF SYSTEM             
AND STRONG NWD SURGE OF COPIOUS MOISTURE DOES GIVE SOME                         
BELIEVABILITY TO THE WETTER 06Z ETA RUN.                                        
.MQT...WINTER STORM WRNG TNGT AND EARLY SUN MIZ012.                             
       SN ADVY TONIGHT MIZ002-003-009.                                          
       SN ADVY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MIZ004>007-010-011-013-014.                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1026 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                     
WILL JUST MAKE SOME TIMING CHANGES TO ONSET OF PRECIP LATER THIS                
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST RUC DLAYS ONSET TIL LATE AFTN MOST OF OUR         
OH AND EXTRM WESTERN PA ZNS. REST LEFT AS IS.                                   
.PBZ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
950 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
MOST RECENT RUC TRYING TO INDICATE SOME WEAK CAA JUST ABOVE THE SFC             
ACROSS FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN MORE ERLY              
THAN SERLY. THIS LOW LVL CAA SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN COOLER TEMPS                
OVER WRN MN ATTM. WITH UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION            
LATER TODAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY WAA OVERSPREAD THIS                 
AREA. WRN SECTIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP LOW CAA LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEHIND INVERTED TROF SLIDING EAST                
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
CO-OP OBSERVER FROM ERN SD CALLED RECENTLY WITH A REPORT OF SNOW                
FALLING NEAR THE MN BORDER. WITH THIS REPORT...AND THE LIKELIHOOD               
THAT WEAK CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WILL UPDATE ZONES TO                
REFLECT SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND TEMPS NOT             
WARMING AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.                                                  
.ABR....NONE.                                                                   
FAUCETTE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                     
DRY AIR HANGING TUFF ACRS FA WITH CONFLUENT UPR FLOW TO NE HELPING              
TO STRENGTHEN RDGG. LTST VIS SATL LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS HAVING TROUBLE            
OVERCOMING DRY AIR ACRS CNRTL/NRN MID ATLC STATES. PER MHX 88D                  
LOOP...SHRAS ALG NC CST MAKING LTL NWD PROGRESS AND DRYING UP ACRS              
PAMLICO SOUND. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE LEADING EDGE PCPN ASSOCD                
WITH MAIN S/W IN CNTRL US STILL WELL BACK IN LWR OHVLY.                         
SO WITH CURRENT TRENDS AND LTST (DRIER) RUC/MESOETA GUIDANCE...WL BE            
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS AFTN FCST. KEEPING (LOW) PCPN CHCS                    
CONFINED TO NE NC/SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS IN CASE A FEW SHRAS SNEAK UP          
THE COAST. WL ALSO BUMP UP TEMPS A CAT MOST PLACES PER PROLONGED PD             
SUNSHINE THRU MIDDAY AND INTO EARLY AFTN. RMNDR FCST UNCHANGED.                 
PREV DISC BLO:                                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
COOL/CLR NGT ACRS FA...WITH SFC HI PRES SETTLING BY JUST N OF RGN.              
AREA OF RA MVG TO THE SC/GA CST ATTM...BUT MAIN ACTION GETTING GOING            
WELL W OF THE MTNS. WITH SFC HI PRES MVG OFFSHR THIS MORNING...LLVL             
FLO TURNS SE...AS LRG AREA OF WAA INDUCED PCPN DVLPS OVR MID MS VLY             
AND HEADS E. WL HV SUM SUNSHINE EVERYWHERE TO START THE DAY...HWVR              
AFTN HRS BCM CLDY. ETA MDLS SNDGS DO NOT SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION             
FOR WDSPRD RA THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT WL CVR FOR LO CHCS LT/EVE FOR WRN             
HALF OF FA. BEST PD FOR PCPN COMES TNGT THRU SUN MORNING AS WRMFNT              
LIFTS NE THRU RGN. CONTG TO XPCT HVYST PCPN TO PASS BY TO THE NW. WL            
NOT GO WITH 80% AND > AS GUIDANCE SUGGS...GOING WITH LIKELY ALL                 
AREAS INSTEAD. WRMFNT LIFTS TO THE NE OF FA BY ERY AFTN HRS...LLVL              
FLO INCRSS FM WSW DRCTN AND SGFNT WRMG TO OCCUR. H85 TEMPS PROGGED              
TO RISE TO ARND +15 DEGS C DURG AFTN HRS. LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE SUGGS            
READINGS REACHING MID/UPR 80S AS SKY PRTLLY CLRS. XPCTG AIR TO DRY              
SUFFICIENTLY TO LMT CHCS OF ANY TSRAS...SO WL GO W/O ANY MENTION OF             
PCPN FOR AFTN HRS MOST PLCS. SLGT TMG DIFFS WITH SFC CDFNT PASSING              
THRU RGN SUN NGT (AVN FASTER THAN ETA). THINK THERE CUD BE A BKN LN             
OF CNVTN WITH FNT (DESPITE TM OF DAY)...CONSIDERING WRM/MOD                     
INSTABILITY OVR FA...NOT XPCTG ANYTHING TOO WDSPRD AT THIS TM.                  
DRYING/COOLING DN FOR MON AND TUE...B4 ANOTHER VRY WRM SURGE OF AIR             
MVS INTO RGN FM SW ON WED. YET ANOTHER COOLDOWN BY FRI. MADE MINOR              
ADJSMNTS TO WED AND FRI FCSTS TO RELECT THESE IDEAS.                            
FCSTID = 25                                                                     
-------------------------------------------------------------------             
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
CULLEN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
245 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
POTENT SYSTEM WINDING UP ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH MODELS DISAGREEING ON             
EVENTUAL TRACK. 15Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST IDEA OF SENDING SURFACE            
LOW JUST EAST OF KOMA BY 00Z (NEAR KAIO). THIS AGREES BEST WITH AVN AND         
TO SOME EXTENT THE NGM. EXTRAPOLATION WOULD INDICATE THAT AVN IS                
BETTER IN FUTURE POSITIONS OF LOW...WHICH WOULD INDICATE WARM FRONT NOT         
GETTING MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN I80. EITHER WAY MODELS INDICATE                 
TREMENDOUS LIFT TO CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SATURATED                   
ATMOSPHERE. BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIP EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE               
STARTING UP AGAIN. APPEARS THAT SOUTHERN PART OF CWFA SHOULD SEE SOME           
SOLAR HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRY SLOT CONTINUES             
EAST. UNFORTUNATELY THIS RAISES POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WITH LOW TOPPED            
SUPERCELLS VERY LIKELY. APPEARS SOUTHERN PART CAN EXPECT THE WORST WITH         
HAIL/HIGH WINDS. BETWEEN I80 AND HIGHWAY 30 EVERYTHING IS POSSIBLE              
INCLUDING TORNADOES.                                                            
RAIN AND COOP REPORTS INDICATE AMOUNTS OF 3/4 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP           
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. GROUND NOW VERY MOIST AND POTENTIAL THERE FOR            
ANOTHER HALF TO 1 INCH. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR                 
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE PRECIP TO TAPER TO DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT              
WITH DRIZZLE LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EVENTUAL STRONG CLEARING          
TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.                              
MONDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BRINGING A THREAT OF TSRA/SHRA           
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN              
ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE SIMILAR BUT FAN/MAV ARE COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD.           
TENDENCY IS TO FOLLOW MAV NUMBERS BUT SOUTH PART OF CWA COULD BE                
CLOSER TO FWC ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT ON SUNDAY.                                 
EXTENDED...NOT MUCH TIME TO LOOK AT BUT ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO           
AFFECT THE AREA WED/THU WITH RAIN LIKELY AGAIN. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY            
FOR NOW AS WELL AS SATURDAY...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME                
PRECIP OCCURRED ON SATURDAY.                                                    
COORDINATE WITH DSM...ILX...AND CHI.                                            
.DVN...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.                                          
IA...IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.                        
IL...ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.                                
MO...MOZ009-010.                                                                
86                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
215 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
VRY DECENT RAINS ACRS THE FA TDA WHICH WERE NEEDED. POTENT DRY SLOT             
AND ASSOC MID-LVL TROF WL SWING ACRS IA TNGT WITH ALL NECESSARY                 
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AVAILABLE. SVR WX WL LIKELY OCCUR ALG TRIPLE              
PT OF CIRC CENTER AND SWD ALG DRY LN. SOME HIGHER BASED HAILERS ARE             
PSBL N OF WRMFNT. THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF TORNADO OPPORTUNITY             
AS THE SYS RPDLY MOVS FM CBF-DMX-MIDWAY ALO/CID THIS EVEN. ETA/RUC              
THE BEST MDL AT THIS TIME COMPARING GOES LI/CAPES TO THE MDL FCSTS.             
OUTSIDE OF THE SVR WX THREAT THIS EVEN...PSBL NRW BAND OF SNOW FM               
MCW TWDS SLB FOR SVRL HRS THIS EVEN AS SYS TAPS COLDER AIR ALG IA/MN            
BDR. CLDS TMR IN CYC FLOW WITH SUNSHINE SWRN THIRD OF SO IN THE                 
AFTN. NRN BRANCH TROF AND WK WAA ON MON WITH SML POPS. AT THE MOMENT            
WE HAVE THAT GOING BUT NOT EXCITED ABT IT. QG FORCING SPLITS THE ST             
AS TROF COMES ACRS WITH LTL WAA ADDITION. WL PROBABLY HOLD ON THAT              
SML CHC TO PREVENT YO-YO. NXT SYS ARRIVING TUE NGT INTO WED NGT AS              
SRN BRANCH REACTIVATES IN BROADSCALE OVERRUNNING EVENT SIMILAR TO               
CURRENT SITUATION. HOLDING DRY THU ON. TMPS ABT AS SUGGESTED.                   
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
332 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
SECOND WEEKEND IN A ROW OF WINTRY WEATHER. RAIN HAS PRETTY MUCH                 
CHANGED TO SNOW IN THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH OBSERVERS                     
REPORTING UP TO TWO INCHES IN AMERY. SOME SLEET MIXING IN. RUC                  
950MB TEMPERATURES INDICATING A CIRCULAR 0 DEG ISOTHERM OVERHEAD                
THAT EXPANDS RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AND EAST THROUGH 7 PM. THIS SHOULD             
CHANGE ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR                 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN MN. BEST FORCING IS ACROSS WI EARLY TONIGHT                
WITH MIXING RATIOS OF 3 G/KG. ALREADY UPDATED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON            
AND PUT MORE COUNTIES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES IN A             
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THINGS REALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY                
MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW INDICATED FOR SUNDAY             
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. A RATHER ABRUPT CHANGE                
TAKES PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TAKES                  
CHARGE AS A TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARDS US FROM CENTRAL CANADA. STUCK               
WITH THE CHANGE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WESTERN AREAS AND                  
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY EASTERN AREAS. INDICES INDICATE A SMALL                
CHANCE FOR THUNDER. A RATHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH             
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 55 TO 60                 
DEGREE RANGE.                                                                   
.MSP...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT                                          
       MNZ044-045-052-053-061-063-WIZ014>016-023-025-027-280900-                
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
330 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
AFTER WAITING AND WATCHING THINGS ARE FINALLY BGNG TO GET GOING OUT             
WEST.  THE MID LVL DRY SLOT CONTS TO SURGE EWD ACRS THE FA ON THE               
HEALS OF THE ERN MO IMPULSE HELPING ALG WITH WAA GENERATE THE SECOND            
WV OF SHRA AND EMBDD -TSRA NOW MOVG EAST OF THE MS RVR.  SCT CNVCTN             
IS NOW DVLPG ALG DRYLN FM SE NEB INTO ERN KS WHERE CLDS HV CLRD AND             
DIURNAL HTG AND PBL MSTR ADVCTN HAS RESULTED IN A SWATH OF SFC BASED            
INSTABILITY.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR EWD THE INSTABILITY WL                
SPRD DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVNG AND THE EXTENT OF THE CNVRGNC                
ALG THE DRYLN.  WRMFNT WAS LCTD FM SRN IL ACRS THE LAKE OF THE                  
OZARKS INTO NW MO AT 20Z AND XTNSV LOW CLDS RMND OVR ALL OF THE                 
BI-STATE.  STILL ALL THE MDLS INCLUDING THE LAST SVRL RUC RUNS ARE              
INDCG BOTH AN INCRS IN SFC DPTS AND TMPS THRU THE RMNDR OF THE AFT              
AND INTO THE EVNG IN ADVANCE OF EWD SURGING DRYLN.  THIS INCRS IN               
PBL MSTR/HEAT AND GOOD MID LVL CAA RESULTS IN THE MDLS MAINTAINING              
THE SWATH OF UNSTBL AIR WELL PAST SUNSET INTO THE NGT IN ADVANCE OF             
THE STG SYS.  DP LYR SHEAR IS IMPRSV TO SAY THE LEAST WITH LATEST               
LAPS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 70-80 KTS...AND VALUES CLOSE TO THESE SHUD             
BE MAINTAINED DURING THE EVNG AS THE MID LVL JET CONTS TO PROP EWD              
IN ASSOCN WITH THE STG SHRTWV TROF.  THUS SVR THREAT STILL LOOKS                
GOOD IF PROGGED DESTABILIZATION IS INDEED CORRECT.  NATURE TO THE               
FRCG SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE OF STRMS SHUD BE SCT AND WL WORD AS                 
SUCH...ENDING WEST TO EAST DURING THE TNGT PD.                                  
FAIRLY GOOD DRYING BHD THIS SYS AND MDLS ARE ALL NOW A BIT COOLER               
THAN PRVS RUNS FOR SUN/SUN NGT.  HV TRENDED THE NEW FCST DOWNWARD A             
TAD MORE BASICALLY SPLITTING THE DIF IN THE MAV/FWC NUMBS.  WL PRBLY            
SEE SOME WRAP ARND CLDS WORK INTO THE FAR NORTH LATE TNGT AND AT                
LEAST SCT INSTABILITY CU FRM SUN MRNG IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE               
WAKE OF THE LOW OVR THE NRN/ERN SXNS.  BREEZY AS WELL.                          
SFC HI BLDS ACRS SUN NGT WITH ANY LINGERING INSTAB CU DSIPTG AND LVG            
MCLR SKIES FOR A WHILE.  MDLS HOWEVER BGN SPRDG WAA CLDS ACRS THE               
NRN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE SUN NGT IN ADVANCE OF A QUICK MVG                     
IMPULSE.  HV KEPT THE FCST DRY BUT WL HV TO WATCH TO SEE IF A FEW               
SHRA MAY DVLP FM MID LVL MSTR DECK.                                             
FM MON AND BYD THE FCST DETAILS BCM LESS CLR.  THE NEW AVN IS MUCH              
DIF THAN THE PRVS RUN AND HAS TRENDED TWDS YDAS CANADIAN AND THE                
LATEST UKMET/ECMWF SHWG MORE NRN STRM AMPLIFICATION AND THUS THE SWD            
FNT PROGRESSION ON MON/MON NGT IS ABT 24H FASTER THAN PRVSLY FCST.              
I HV KEPT SOME POPS GOING WITH IT AND HV TAILORED TMPS A BIT.  THE              
EXACT PSN AND WAVERING IN RSPNS TO SHRTWVS STILL RMNS QUESTIONABLE              
INTO WED.  ATTM AVN SUGGESTS THREAT OF ELEVATED TRW TUE NGT INTO                
ERLY WED THEN SFC BASED STRMS LATE WED/WED NGT WITH SFC WV                      
TRANSLATING ALG THE E/W BNDRY.                                                  
.STL...NONE                                                                     
GLASS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
325 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE BEYOND SHORT TERM IS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS OUT OF              
BOTH BRANCHES OF FLOW.  MAIN SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE TIMED FOR WED.                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...VERY FAST MOVING LOW WILL PRODUCE MAIN SEVERE               
THREAT THE REST OF THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVE.  GOOD SETUP FOR MINI                
SUPERCELLS WITH THIN WEDGE OF WARM MOIST AIR JUST AHEAD OF SFC                  
LOW WHILE COLD AIR PUNCHES IN AT 700 MB BENEATH LOW TROP.                       
AFTER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WINDS PICK UP FOR A WHILE WITH SOME LIGHT          
RAIN WRAPPING AROUND THRU NRN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.  RAINFALL SO FAR            
1 TO 2 INCHES MANY LOCATIONS...BUT PRESENT SYSTEMS MOVING SO FAST               
THAT FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT WORTH MENTIONING.                                
LATER TONIGHT STRATOCU WRAPAROUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE             
AREA...BUT EXPECT IT TO BREAK UP EARLY SUNDAY AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW              
TAKES OVER.                                                                     
NEXT SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY WEAK LOOKING WAVE...BUT IT GENERATES                    
IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS OF ETA IN PARTICULAR.  WORTH A                
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING.                           
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER TUE INTO WED.  THIS ONE LOOKS MORE                 
IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE TAPPING GULF MOISTURE.  MODELS DISAGREE ON             
STORM TRACK...BUT BEST CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS KS.  KEPT                 
POPS HIGH AND TEMPS COOL.                                                       
LATER IN THE EXTENDED...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRY AS THE AREA STARTS          
OUT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THEN GETS INTO RETURN FLOW BY SAT...BUT REMAINS         
WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM TRACK THROUGHOUT.  WENT WITH TOP AND EAX FOR           
A DRY FORECAST.                                                                 
125 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY                           
SYNOPSIS -- LATEST REGIONAL 88D REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC/IR IMAGERY SHOWS            
INCREASING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM S-CNTRL NEB TO ERN KS.  THESE               
STORMS ARE FORMING IN A ZONE OF INTENSE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC               
LIFT AND ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE, PER OUN 27/00Z              
SOUNDING AND 27/03Z RUCII DATA.  AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW WAS            
SITUATED OVER NERN NM AT 06Z, WITH THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT STILL WELL            
TO OUR S, OVER N-CNTRL TX.                                                      
FORECAST -- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS AND THEN             
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.  THE ETA AND AVN ARE NOW            
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24                
HOURS.  IN THE SHORT TERM, CONTINUED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE             
LOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF ELEVATED SEVERE CONVECTION EARLY            
THIS MORNING.  27/03Z RUCII FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN NEB SHOW                
MUCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 09Z WITH SUFFICIENT             
SHEAR THROUGH THIS BUOYANT LAYER TO SUPPORT ELEVATED MESOCYCLONES.              
THEN, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY              
OVER NM AS OF 06Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL RAPIDLY EJECT NEWD TODAY WITH             
A POTENT SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING FROM N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL NEB INTO                
SWRN IA BY 28/00Z.  THE AMOUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA TODAY               
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON TWO FACTORS:  1)  THE AMOUNT OF QUALITY                   
MOISTURE RETURN, AND 2) THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION AHEAD OF             
THE SURFACE LOW.  06Z METAR DATA SUGGESTS 1) MAY BE THE MOST                    
PROBLEMATIC AS THE GOOD SURFACE DEWPOINTS (I.E. 55-65) ARE STILL                
OVER TX.  EVEN WITH INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS, THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY             
NOT MAKE IT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN OUR SURFACE TRAJECTORIES (SE).  THUS,             
THE BEST CHANCES FOR 50S DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE ADVECTIVE, BUT FROM              
AIRMASS SATURATION DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  THIS LEADS TO                
2).  HOW MUCH AIRMASS RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW?             
BOTH THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT MOVING INTO                
SERN NEB/SWRN IA BY 18Z, SO IT APPEARS SOME DESTABILIZATION IS                  
POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM, ONLY 500-1000 J/KG WILL            
LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO INITIATE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.  LOW LCL              
HEIGHTS AND HIGH 0-1 KM SRH/SHEAR VALUES NE OF THE SURFACE LOW,                 
SUGGEST GOOD LOW-TOPPED TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL *IF* CONVECTION            
CAN INITIATE IN OUR CWA.  WE WILL HIT THIS SCENARIO RATHER HARD                 
ACROSS OUR SERN ZONES IN THE HWO.                                               
THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE E TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING             
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.  BOTH THE AVN/ECMWF INDICATE THE NEXT               
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG AND TO THE N OF A FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY                   
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE, GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE             
ON HIGHS/LOWS.                                                                  
MEAD                                                                            
IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS ON THE NEW FORECAST DISCUSSION FORMAT...PLEASE             
E-MAIL THEM TO W-OAX.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV OR CALL DAVE THEOPHILUS AT              
402 359-5166.                                                                   
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
POLLACK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1055 AM MDT SAT APR 27 2002                                                     
FORECASTS UPDATED FOR MORE WIND THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC2 AND              
LAMP OUTPUT. 38                                                                 
.ABQ...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NMZ005>007-010>013-018-020-021.             
</PRE></TT></td>   nm