FXUS63 KJKL 202201
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY 
WITH A HINT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH REACHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL 
KENTUCKY FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARED OUT 
OF THE NORTH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT HAVE HELD ON STRONG OVER THE 
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF EAST KENTUCKY. MORE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER 
THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE 
BEEN STRAFING OUR BORDER COUNTIES WITH TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THE REGION VARIED FROM THE NEAR 50 IN MIDDLESBORO UNDER THE 
CLOUDS TO MID 30S IN FLEMING COUNTY IN THE FREEZER. 

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT CONSIDERING THE 
DYNAMIC PATTERN. IN THE FAST FLOW THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
OUT OF OLD MEXICO AND WORKING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 
SATURDAY MORNING. THE ETA IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS THROUGH 66 
HOURS BUT MATCHES WELL WITH THE TIMING OF THE OTHER MODELS. AHEAD OF 
THIS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH KENTUCKY TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THEN ROTATES THROUGH THE 
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY WITH THE HINTS OF OUR NEXT MAJOR STORM 
PRODUCER MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE 
EARLIER ONE AND DIVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GATHERING STEAM 
AND OPENING UP THE GULF FOR A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...SNOW OR 
POSSIBLY ICE LATER IN THE WEEK. 

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME FOG 
OVER THE ICE ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH GIVEN THE CLOUDS 
AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DRIFT NORTH 
AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. FOR FRIDAY GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS BREAK 
OUT NEARLY EVERYWHERE AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH 
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...THE BULK OF OUR RAINS FALL 
AS A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY. 
THE MESOETA SOLUTION IS PREFERRED HERE AS ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION IS 
PROBABLY BETTER AT PICKING UP ON THE CONVEYOR BELT MECHANISM OF A 
WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM AND ITS COMMA CLOUD STRUCTURE. THIS LOW WILL 
PASS RIGHT OVER US WITH ITS STRENGTH YIELDING A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT 
AND SQUALL LINE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SQUALL LINE MAY CUT OFF 
MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FOR EAST KENTUCKY WHILE THE MATURE 
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM DUMPS ITS PROLONGED RAINS TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE 
OHIO RIVER. THEREFORE AM GOING WITH QPF OF JUST ONE TO TWO INCHES 
FALLING MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...THIS COULD CHANGE SHOULD 
THE SFC TRACK SHIFT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON A 
FLOOD WATCH AND CONTINUE WITH THE ESF AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR 
FLOODING APPEARS TO BE MORE A FLASH FLOOD VARIETY EARLY SATURDAY. AS 
THE LOW CENTER PASSES US SATURDAY WE COULD ALSO SEE/HEAR SOME 
THUNDER. AFTER A WARM DAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE 
IN QUICKLY ON NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT CHANGING THE LINGERING 
RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW 
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. A CHANCE OF LIGHT 
SNOW WILL CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN 
ARRIVES MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES BY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE 
MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE 
COLDER AIR THAT THIS PULLS DOWN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING 
SNOW OR SOME ICING POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.  

MOS TEMPS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD DID NOT STRAY 
MUCH EXCEPT TO TAKE DOWN TEMPS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN THE ICE ZONE. 
POPS LOOKED REASONABLE. 

AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...REPOPULATED WITH MY PREFERRED METHOD OF 
MESOETA WINDS AND TEMPS FIELDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. HAD TO ADJUST THESE 
MAJORLY TO LOWER THE EXCESSIVELY WARM TEMPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 
THIS TIME. THEY DID SEEM TO CAPTURE THE COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT AND 
FRIDAY FOR THE ICE ZONES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN 
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND BEEFED UP CLOUDS/POPS TUESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY.  

ZONES...GRIDS AND GRAPHICS ALREADY OUT SLIGHTLY DELAYED DUE TO A 
BUSY MORNING SURROUNDING SUPPORT FOR THE FACTORY EXPLOSION IN 
CORBIN. UPDATED ESF AND HWO ALREADY ISSUED.  

PRELIMINARY CCFS:
LOZ 039/056 049/060 033 47+
JKL 037/055 050/059 033 37+

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1057 AM EST THU FEB 20 2003

FOG LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH. LET ADVISORY EXPIRE. LOW LVL CLOUDS 
HOLDING TOUGH AROUND THE AREA. WILL ADJUST TEMPS A BIT DOWN TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. A FEW BLIPS ON RADAR ARE 
SEEN ON TN BORDER. META ALSO PICKING UP ON SOME OF THIS STUFF TRYING 
TO PENTRATE FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE 
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE AND INCLUDE A 20 POP 
IN THE SOUTH TO COVER THESE. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. 

WILL REASSESS THE ESTILL COUNTY SITUATION AT NOON. THERE WERE STILL 
A FEW SECONDARY ROADS CLOSED THIS MORNING...BUT THE WATER WAS 
RECEDING. WILLIAMSBURG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

GEOGERIAN

---------------------------------------------------------------------
445 AM EST THU FEB 20 2003

CURRENT PROBLEM IS FOG THEN CONCERN TURNS TO POSSIBLE REPEAT OF 
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.

PAST ICE STORM LEFT A COATING OF ICE ON TREES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN 
PARKWAY. THIS SAME AREA NOW HAS AN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIR AND THE 
RESULT IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH MANY STATIONS REPORTING 
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4SM. SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY THE GROUND 
REMAINS SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINS OF LAST WEEKEND. THIS SAME 
WARM AIR IS CREATING FOG BUT MORE PATCHY IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WHERE 
IT DOES FORM IT BECOMES DENSE. OVC SKIES TODAY ACROSS THE SRN 1/3 OF 
THE CWFA WILL MAKE IT HARD TO BURN OFF. FOR THE NRN 2/3...THE SUN 
SHOULD HAVE THE FOG DISSIPATING BY 10 AM.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK...HOW MUCH WATER CAN A SPONGE HOLD. GROUND 
STILL SATURATED AND THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE DUE FRIDAY WILL FALL 
ON GROUND THAT HAS NO MORE ROOM FOR WATER...IE RUNOFF AND THE 
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING. MODELS STILL NOT CONSISTANT ENUF TO TRY 
AND NAIL DOWN THE HEAVIEST RAIN. ETA SLOWER AND FURTHER WEST WITH 
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN THRU CNTRL KY WHILE GFS FASTER AND FARTHER 
EAST...PLACING HEAVY RAIN OVER ERN KY. POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES WILL 
BRING OUR RIVERS BACK TO FLOOD STAGE BY SAT. 

THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PASS THRU CWFA WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE 
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. COLD AIR BEHIND THE FNT WILL NOT 
MAKE IT INTO AREA IN TIME FOR MUCH SNOW. FLURRIES PROBABLE BUT 
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW 
ON MONDAY WITH THE INFLUX OF COLD AIR AND UPSLOPE TO SQUEEZE OUT 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. 

PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION:
LOZ 46/38 49/46 2677
JKL 45/37 48/46 1577

DUSTY

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
--------------------------------------------------------------------

QUICK UPDATE TO FORECAST...ZONES. DENSE FOG DEVELOPING NORTHERN 
THIRD OF COUNTIES IN CWA. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM 
TOMORROW MORNING. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

RAY

---------------------------------------------------------------------

1045 PM EST WED FEB 19 2003

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER STL...WITH LOW 
PRESSURE OVER NE LA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED NORTHEAST FROM THE 
LOW UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY A LITTLE 
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE COMING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW AND 
TOMORROW NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN HAS PERSISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A 
SOMERSET TO PIKEVILLE LINE. RAINFALL AT LOZ HAS BEEN AROUND TWO 
TENTHS.

THE RAIN HAS TAPERED OFF TO SPRINKLES NORTH OF THIS AREA...AND HAVE 
UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN 
SOME CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AND WITH WET GROUND AND SMALL DEWPOINT 
DEPRESSIONS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF THE FAR NW THAT 
GET THE MOST CLEARING MAY SEEM MORE WIDESPREAD FOG. OVER THE 
SE...THE LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO DRIZZLE AS A MID LEVEL 
SW/V MOVES EAST OF THE REGION TOWARD DAWN.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS WITH SYSTEM TO END THE 
WEEK. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (SDFESFJKL) IS OUT HIGHLIGHTING THE 
CONCERNS. ALSO...WITH THE KY RIVER REMAINING HIGH IN ESTILL AND 
LESLIE COUNTIES...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7 AM AS SEVERAL 
ROADS REMAIN CLOSED (SEE SDFFLSJKL). HWO WAS ALSO UPDATED DURING 
THE AFTERNOON TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WEEK.

PELTON
$$