AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
845 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY MOVING S THROUGH SE AL ZONES               
...WHILE CONVECTION NEAR PERRY CONTINUES TO DIE. SE AL CONVECTION               
RECENTLY SHOWING DECREASED LIGHTNING STRIKE FREQUENCY...WITH A                  
PREPONDERANCE OF POSITIVE POLARITY STRIKES IN ITS TRAILING                      
STRATIFORM REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER IS ALREADY BEGINNING            
TO DISSIPATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SUBSIDENCE WORKING S OVER CWA             
...WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIFT MOVING S OVER NRN ZONES. THIS HAS                  
APPARENTLY BEEN ENOUGH TO FIRE SE AL STORMS AND ISOLATED WEAK                   
CONVECTION NEAR ABY. 00Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWED ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL             
WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE. WILL ISSUE ZONE UPDATES BY            
0130Z TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING THUNDER FOR APPROPRIATE AREAS                
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.                                                          
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...WILL BUMP UP WIND AND SEAS BASED ON                   
BUOY/C-MAN DATA AND RUC PROGS. EXPECT LAND BREEZE CONVECTION                    
OFFSHORE OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ALSO MENTION               
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
TJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 120034  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
220 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN TNGT HVY RAINS AND THU WILL BE SVR WX.                             
FIRST THINGS FIRST MID LVL VORT FOUND IN PROFILER NTWRK HAS KEPT PCPN           
GOING TDA MAINLY S OF I80 SETTING UP SVRL OUTFLOW BNDRYS INVOF OF ST.           
MNWHILE ADVANCING S/W OUT OF SW SHULD ENTER ST LTR TNGT AND IF SRN              
WRM FNT DOES MAKES ITS WAY NWRD THIS EVENING IA TOP SPOT FOR HVY                
RAINS AS LO LVL INFLO INCRS 35 TO 40 KNTS AND HI PWS.  MDLS DO DIFFER           
ON LOCATIONS OF BNDRY HWVR DO NOT XPCT MUCH HELP WITH SHORT TERM AS             
ON GOING SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT PICKED UP WELL EVEN BY RUC APPEARS ABIT           
SLO IN PCPN FIELDS AND EXACT LOCATION OF SFC FEATURES HWVR BEST MDL             
ATTM.  BELIEVE SRN BNDRY WL TAKE ITS TIME MOVG TNGT AND LKLY BST CHC            
FOR HVY RAINS CNTRL AND S HWVR IF LO LVL FLO DVLPS AS STG AS DEPICTED           
WULD XPCT BNDRY PUSH AND HVY RAINS CNTRL AND N.  DEGREE OF UNCERTAINY           
SO WL MENTN HVY RAINS ENTIRE CWA THO NO HEADLINE ATTM.                          
TMRW WL BE VRY INTERESTING AS MUCH STGNR DYNAMICS MAKES MOD RISK LOOK           
LIKE GD CHC.  XPCT SRN BNDRY TO BE N OF ST AND IN WARM SECTOR AHD OF            
ADVANCING COLD FNT.  JET ACRS AREA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR WITH HI                 
CAPES.  QG VECTORS STG FOR 18Z-00Z PD THU AND INFO AGN 35 TO 40 KTS.            
SERIES OF S/W CROSS AREA IN SAME TIME PD.  WL LKLY GO HIER POPS FOR             
THU AFTN WITH SUM LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.  BY FRI SYNOPTIC                  
PATTERN SHULD SETTLE DWN WITH HI MOVG INTO THE AREA AND DECENT CAA              
AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE ST FM SW.                                        
LOOKING AHED TO EFP PD UNSETTLED BST WORD FOR THIS FCST PD.  SERIES             
OF S/W WITH FNTS MOVG ACRS THE AREA.  THO HI FRI NGT WL DOMINATE IN             
TO SUN AT WHICH TIME S/W DROPS ACRS AREA.  WL GO FOR CHC LT SUN NGT             
AND INTO MON.  GUID TEMPS NOT BAD.                                              
OVERALL GUID NOT BAD THO MAYBE LO SRN IA THU WITH WARM SECTOR.  WULD            
ACCEPT COOL DWN THU NGT AND FRI THO MANY TIMES DRYING ON ERN EDGE OF            
CWA SLO.                                                                        
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FORSTER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 111506 AMD  ia                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1005 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999                                                     
DYING MCC OVER NE/IA TO BE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE...ALONG WITH               
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS.                                                           
SATELLITE AND RADAR TELLING STORY RIGHT NOW WITH DYING MCS OVER SW              
IA AND ADJOINING STATES.  CURRENT MOVEMENT TO ESE RIGHT ON TRACK AS             
SYSTEM IS TRYING TO STAY IN BEST INFLOW.  HOWEVER PROFILERS AND                 
MORNING 80H RAOB DATA SHOWING IT IS NOW MOVING EAST OF LLJ...OR                 
WHATS LEFT OF IT...AND LLJ IS VEERING NOW.  SFC OBS TELLING MUCH                
DRIER STORY THAN IS THE 88D...WITH ONLY MINOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SW            
CWA.  DYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.  WILL HAVE TO UPDATE S/C AND                 
MAYBE SE CWA FOR WDLY SCT SHRA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.   LOOKING                
WEST OF OMA...RADAR SHOWING CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LNK AND             
GRI.  THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY                    
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO WRN CWA.  THIS MAY REQUIRE A LITTLE MORE                
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING.                                                         
NORTH OF I-80...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WX THRU THE AFTERNOON.                        
FINALLY...CLOUDS AND COLD POOL TO MAKE TEMP FCSTS A BIT TOUGH THIS              
AFTERNOON.  LATEST SAT PICS INDICATING A FAST THINNING OVER NRN                 
CWA.  WARMEST TEMPS COULD VERY WELL BE UP THERE.  MODELS HAVE NOT               
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM AT ALL...HOWEVER...QUICK GLANCE AT 12Z RUC            
DOES SHOW THE COLD POOL AT THE SFC.  WILL BUMP TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST A            
CAT...MAYBE A CAT AND ONE HALF.                                                 
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 110822  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1037 AM MDT (1137 AM CDT) WED AUG 11 1999                                       
REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND TWEAKED WINDS BASED ON CURRENT               
CONDITIONS. LATEST CAPS DATA INDICATING INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP             
OVER MY EASTERN CWA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY1. RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING            
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHEAST-EAST OUT THERE...WITH TROUGH LINE FURTHER             
WEST. WINDS WEST OF THE LINE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-WEST. NO NEW FWC                 
GUIDANCE...BUT LAMP IN LINE WITH FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TO            
BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.             
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KTOP 110845  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONT RUNNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY             
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. JUST A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT         
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATEST MESOETA GUIDANCE         
KEEPS US DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE THE FRONT. THE MESOETA SOUNDING           
KEEPS A MID LEVEL CAP THROUGH 00Z SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER           
THE RUC INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR               
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST LAPS AND MSAS           
GRAPHICS ACTUALLY HAS THIS AREA THE MOST STABLE. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN          
TOWARD KEEPING US DRY AND CAPPED ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE         
ON THE SITUATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES           
AND SKY CONDITION ARE ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.            
.JKL...NONE                                                                     
GREIF                                                                           
 ky                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH CAPES AROUND 3000               
J/KG AND PW'S NEAR 2.2 INCHES AT KSIL AND 2.4 INCHES AT KJAN. LOCAL             
DOWNBURST CHECKLIST SHOWS MODERATE POTENTIAL TODAY...SO 30 OR 35 KT             
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY OCCUR. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO DAYS...THERE IS NO            
SURFACE TROUGH AND MAJOR BLOWUP OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL                    
WATERS...PROBABLY DUE TO LESS UPPER DIFLUENCE. HOWEVER...W TO SW                
SURFACE WIND MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO               
COME INTO PLAY. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE RUC ANALYSIS              
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SW MS. CANNOT             
RULE OUT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MORE CONCENTRATED                 
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT              
THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON UPDATING CURRENT 40 TO 50 PERCENT                    
POPS...BUT WILL MENTION THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM            
GUSTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. OBNOXIOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE            
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL PRODUCE 105 DEGREE PLUS HEAT INDICES                  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND                   
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COOL THINGS DOWN IN MOST AREAS.                       
.NEW...NONE.                                                                    
LA...NONE                                                                       
MS...NONE.                                                                      
22                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 111548  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1035 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
AFTER PICKING THRU THE RUC AND LATEST LAPS SURFACE DATA...HAVE OPTED            
FOR A 20 POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  MANY OPPOSING FACTORS WITH THIS.              
POSITIVE: REASNBLE S/W APPROACHING FROM THE NW. DWPTS IN THE MID TO             
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RDGE. MODFD SOUNDING HAS -5 LI AND 2000              
CAPE. SAT IMGRY HAS CU FORMING IN WV AND WSTRN PA ASSOCTD WITH S/W.             
SURF TROF OVR REGION.                                                           
NEGATIVE: LOW LVL WNDS OUT OF THE WEST (DOWNSLOPE) EXCPT SURF WINDS             
WHICH ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION TODAY. DROUGHT...IE                        
PERSISTENCE. RUC HAS NO CONVCTVE PRECIP OVR THE LWX CWA TODAY. MOS              
HAS 9-10 POP OVR REGION TODAY.                                                  
BOTTOM LINE...I DON/T EXPECT IT HERE...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
EITHER. SO...20 POP (SLIGHT CHC).                                               
AFTER THE 10AM OBS...TEMPS LOOK GOOD EXCEPT I WILL RAISE A FEW IN               
THE WEST WHERE DOWNSLOPE HAS TEMPS ALREADY 83-84 DEGS. WINDS WILL BE            
SW TURNING W AROUND 10 MPH.                                                     
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE U.P. TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION.                           
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW            
IN JAMES BAY...TO MENOMINEE COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.                  
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE             
U.P. ALONG THIS FRONT... BUT KMQT 88D RETURNS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF           
HOURS SHOW THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. EVEN AT THEIR STRONGEST                 
THESE SHOWERS PRODUCED NO LIGHTNING AND HAD QUITE WARM CLOUD TOP                
TEMPERATURES ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS PARTICULARLY             
WEAK AS IT CROSSED THE U.P... THE FRONT IS A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE             
U.P. AND A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST.  BUT HERE IN THE U.P. ITSELF                 
THERE IS A COL IN THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THAT THE FRONT                 
CROSSES... AND THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF VORT MAXIMA ALOFT IN THE                  
REGION AND FLAT 700-300MB QVECTOR FIELD.  WITHOUT THE ASSISTANCE OF             
DIURNAL HEATING TO DESTABALIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE SURFACE FRONT          
ALONE IS APPARENTLY TOO WEAK TO TRIGGER PRECIPITATION.                          
THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT... AND THE SERIOUS                      
PRECIPITATION IS SET TO BEGIN THURSDAY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW              
NEAR THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER APPROACHES THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING             
SERVES AS A MECHANISM FOR THE U.P.   310/320K ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS            
OVER THE U.P. BY 12Z ACCORDING TO THE 12Z ETA NGM AND AVN MODELS.               
BUT NEW MESOETA AND RUC HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER SOLUTION.  THIS IS             
INTERESTING SINCE 12Z ETA SHOWED A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN ITS                  
PREVIOUS 00Z RUN AS WELL.  WILL LEAVE ANY MAJOR REVISION OF WET                 
THURSDAY ZFP FORECAST TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT... BUT MESOETA AND RUC OFFER            
ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR DELAYING RAIN DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNTIL VERY                
VERY LATE IN THE 1ST PERIOD. WILL ALSO TAME DOWN THE POPS FROM                  
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE U.P. TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE IN THE             
EAST. 20Z FLP FOR MQT HAS A POP OF ONLY 35% BY 12Z... WILL                      
COMPRIMISE BETWEEN LATEST MODEL GUIDENCE AND FORECAST CONTINUITY.               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ES                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 120140  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
930 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
WILL BE UPDATING SHORTLY TO DELAY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO REGION.               
PRESENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF US                      
DISSIPATING. 21Z RUC POINTS TO THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO SE LOWER             
AFTER 09Z... THUS WILL UPDATE AND GO WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS            
TOWARDS SUNRISE.                                                                
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE WHAT THEY             
WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME IN ALL OF SE LOWER EXCEPT THE TIP OF               
THE THUMB AND IN THE BAY CITY/MIDLAND AND SAGINAW AREAS. HERE THE               
TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT WHERE THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...               
WHILE THE DEWPOINTS ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. SINCE I WILL BE DELAYING               
THE CLOUDS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY            
AND THE THUMB WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF TIME TO FALL PRIOR TO THE                
CLOUDS REACHING THEM. WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TIP OF THE               
THUMB TO 55 TO 60 AND CONTINUE THE AROUND 60 FOR THE SAGINAW VALLEY.            
ACROSS THE REST OF SE LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.                           
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
KEYES                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 112157  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1125 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO                   
FRESHEN UP THE WORDING IN SOME OF OUR WIND FCSTS. 12Z RUC LOOKS TO              
BE HANDLING THE FEATURES WELL THIS MORNING. EVENTHOUGH WE LOSE THE              
CU AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT...WE WILL KEEP THE PARTLY                
SUNNY WORDING...AS DEBRIS CLOUD FROM MO/IA MCC AND STORMS FROM MN               
MOVES OVER THE CWFA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE LOOKING GOOD AS WELL.               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 111455  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1054 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE AFTN IS SHRA POTENTIAL FOR W HALF OF FA.              
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW CLOUDS QUICKLY STREAKING E            
INTO UPPER MI. UPSTREAM...LARGE AREA OF SHRA/SCT TSRA HAVE BEEN                 
FIRING IN E ND/N MN IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONV/WAA/                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS STRONG WAA AND CONV VERY EVIDENT ON MORNING               
RAOB DATA. AT 850MB...KABR SOUNDING SHOWED TEMP OF 21C WITH SW WIND             
AT 30 KNOTS WHILE KINL HAD TEMP OF 12C AND WNW WIND AT 25 KNOTS.                
SHRA HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E AWAY FROM MAIN                        
CONV/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGION.                                                    
SO CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN WILL BE PROGRESS OF SHRA TOWARD W FA AND               
THEN AFFECT OF INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS ON HIGH TEMPS. 12Z RUC              
SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT WAA/CONV/ISENTROPIC LIFT              
MAKING PROGRESS E THIS AFTN. THIS WILL PUT GENESIS REGION OF SHRA               
INTO NE MN BY 00Z. AS THE SHRA MOVE E...THEY WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL             
CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS E INTO DRIER AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER FA.              
EXPECT SHRA TO REACH W FA THIS AFTN...AFT 18Z FAR W AND 19Z                     
KEWEENAW. CURRENT FCST HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON BRINGING SCT SHRA             
INTO 4 W COUNTIES THIS AFTN. ATTM...WILL NOT EXTEND MENTION OF SHRA             
FARTHER E AS EVENING TIMING APPEARS ON TRACK FOR CNTRL COUNTIES.                
ACROSS CNTRL/E FA...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN IN             
ADVANCE OF SHRA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING NICELY THIS                    
MORNING...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AND THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL PUT THE             
BRAKES ON TEMP RISE. WILL MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW             
AREAS.                                                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 110946  mi                                      

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
830 PM MDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
UPDATED SW ZONES FOR HVY RAIN...HLN HAD 0.82 BY 01Z. RADAR STILL VRY            
ACTIVE THIS EVE OVER CWA. IR SAT SHOWS CLOSED LOW OVER NW WY WHILE ALL          
MODELS FM 12Z  STILL INDICATED AN OPEN TROF...BUT WERE PRETTY CLOSE WITH        
VORT MAX. 00Z RUC INIT UPR LOW TOO FAR N OVER W CNTRL MT.  UPR LOW WL           
TRACK ACROSS SRN MT OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WL BUILD INTO MT ON             
THURS...THUS DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPDATES FOR STRONGER WORDING ON        
PRECIP AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. WILLIAMSON               
DC/EYSSAUTIER                                                                   
GTF +422 HLN +323 HVR +522                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBYZ 120235  mt                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
245 AM MDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO          
NORTHERLY BRANCH OF JET AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA LATER TODAY.          
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOW SPAWNING CONVECTION           
OVER UTAH AND THIS ENERGY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA AROUND            
18Z.  ON WATER VAPOR RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY MOVED TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA          
AND CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS               
DYNAMICS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  SURFACE/850 MB LOW NEAR KSHR EXPECTED          
TO REACH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z AND RUC QUICKLY BRINGS UPSLOPE LOW         
LEVEL FLOW TO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  PROBLEMS OF DAY ARE STRENGTH         
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS INITIALLY LIMITING         
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  DEW POINTS IN GGW HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 60S           
ALREADY AND EXPECT EASTERN MONTANA WILL GET INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS           
AFTER SUNRISE. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA              
AROUND NOON AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  SHEAR PROFILES BECOME         
MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN DAY BUT LAPSE RATES AND CAPES ARE NOT ALL THAT          
IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...MESOETA HINTS AT ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION            
DEVLOPING AND DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK FOR ANY 12Z RUN ADJUSTMENTS           
FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  FORECAST TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS           
700 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.  BETTER CHANCES FOR         
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ATMOSPHERE AND AIRMASS             
REMAINS UNSTABLE.  FOR THURSDAY EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO BE A FACTOR              
THOUGH AVIATION BUILDS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.                   
EXTENDED...A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS              
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.  GENERALLY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH           
PRECIPITATION THREATS EACH DAY.                                                 
BORSUM                                                                          
BIL EB 085/060 078/059 082 59343                                                
LVM .. 084/055 078/... ... 59364                                                
HDN .. 087/058 079/... ... 59343                                                
MLS .. 087/060 078/058 ... 59464                                                
4BQ .. 086/060 076/... ... 59464                                                
BHK .. 085/058 075/... ... 59464                                                
SHR EB 083/055 076/052 080 59343                                                
 mt                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
3 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                        
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC OF PRECIP/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/TIMING OF             
FNT/TEMPS                                                                       
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LO PRES OVR NW KS AND THE                 
PRIMARY SFC LO OVR NW SD.  SFC DEWPOINTS WERE POOLED IN THE 70S NR              
THESE LOWS AND S OF THE WRMFNT OVR NCNTL KS.  THE RUC2 GRAPHICS HAS             
WAA GREATEST N OF THE NRN PLNS WRMFNT...OVR ERN SD...THRU CNTRL                 
NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS AND OK.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXITING THE                
CWFA AND IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES.  THE 18Z            
RUC HAD THE STGR SHTWV OVR CNTRL IA...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES              
IN SE SD AND WRN NEB.                                                           
...FCST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE MCS...YET WITH               
THE CLEARING SKIES...HOT TEMPS AND POOLING WITH THE WRMFNT...THE                
MESOETA HAS AN AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR FM SCNTRL NE INTO KS.  WITH THE             
MAIN LO OVR WCNTL SD THE RUC EXTENDS THE TROF INTO CNTRL NEB WITH               
THE WRMFNT OVR SE NEB.  WITH HI PWS NR THE NEB/KS BORDER...THREAT OF            
LOCALLY HVY RAIN.  WILL CONSIDER WATCH OVR THE SW COUNTY WARNING                
AREA DUE TO THE HVY RAIN THIS AM.  FFG IS ONLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AT             
THIS TIME WILL MENTION LOCALLY HVY RAIN AND BRIEF EVE SHIFT TO                  
POTENTIAL.  DUE TO THE CONTINUED WAA CHC FOR PRECIP THIS INTO THUR              
AM.                                                                             
MODELS TRACK THE SFC LO ACRS SRN SD AND INTO NRN IA THUR...CARVING              
OUT AN UPR TROF WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHCS THUR.  COOLER TEMPS            
FOR FRI WITH GOOD CAA                                                           
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 111959  ne                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
232 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
FCST CONCERN CONT TO BE CHC OF MORE TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGHT.             
WHILE FRONTAL BNDRY AND SFC LEE TROF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST EASY TO              
LOCATE...BNDRY OVER CNTRL KS NOT AS EVIDENT.  THERE IS A WK LOW                 
JUST WEST OF HILL CITY WITH THE MAIN LOW IN WRN SDAK. OUTFLOW BNDRY             
FROM THIS MRNG LOOKS TO BE LIFTING NE AND IS SITUATED FROM OLU TO               
TOP. HIGHER INSTABILITY PRESENTLY IN NCNTRL KS AS SEEN ON                       
LAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGE HAD ANOTHER SHORTWV APPCHG THE AREA FROM ERN            
CO THIS MORNING AND WAS PICKED UP ON LATEST RUC MODEL...BUT NOT VERY            
WELL ON PROFILER NETWORK. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOVING INTO WCNTRL NEB               
ATTM WITH NOTHING POPPING YET WHICH MAY BE BECAUSE OF MORE STABLE               
AIRMASS LEFT OVER FROM LINGERING CLOUDS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE.              
PROFILERS DID SHOW A UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AT RWD WHILE                  
VEERING STILL GOING ON AT FBY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS                 
DURING LATE AFTN/EVNG FOR POSSIBLE SVR IF SOMETHING DOES POP...ESP              
ALONG THE LEE TROF.                                                             
MAIN QUESTION SEEMS TO BE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL GO ON WITH WEAKER              
SHORTWV AND POSSIBLE BNDRY IN KS SLIDING NWD COMPARED TO OUR                    
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH WITH BETTER FORCING FROM MAIN TROF AND WELL              
DEFINED BNDRY. ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED ITEMS...SFC TROF/COLD                  
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS MORNING...IMPRESSIVE                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVNG/TNGHT...AND SUBTROPICAL PLUME HAS SHIFTED             
EAST OVER THE AREA TO COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER.             
ON THE DOWN SIDE...LLJ LOOKS TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SRN MN...                 
UPPER JET WOULD FAVOR THE DAKOTAS/MN AND MAIN FORCING MORE NORTH.               
ALSO AIR MASS STRUGGLING TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AS 2 PM TEMPS            
ONLY IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN NEB CWA. WHILE IN KS CWA TEMPS VARY              
FROM 99 AT HAYS TO 84 IN CNK.                                                   
WILL PROBABLY KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST AND MAY ADD MENTION OF             
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES LAST NIGHT...               
RADAR EST 3-5...BUT WILL PASS ON ANY FF WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF             
WHERE STORMS WILL BE. HOWEVER FFG VALUES SOMEWHAT LOW IN PARTS OF               
CWA SO WILL ADVISE EVNG SHIFT.                                                  
THURS SEES THINGS DRY OUT AS FRONT PUSHES THRU RAPIDLY. IDEA OF                 
LOWERING TEMPS SEEMS TO BE IN LINE.                                             
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
EWALD                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 111719  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1210 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
UPDATED THE ZONES AND TEMP FCST TO REFLECT LATEST WX DVLPMNTS.                  
FIRST MCS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER SCNTRL/SE NEB.             
RUC 2 DATA WAS HELPFUL IN THE SHRTTRM FCST OF RE-DVLPMNT AS                     
WAA/INSTABILITY WAS GRTST IN THE GRI AREA ERLIER THIS AM.  THE                  
LATEST RUC 2 DATA HAD THE BEST INSTABILITY OVR CNTRL KS WITH A                  
WRMFNT.  MOISTURE BLYR MOCONV WAS OVR NW KS AND HI KINDICES AND PWS             
WERE OVR CNTRL KS THRU CNTRL NEB.  THE 15Z RUC CONTINUED TO SHOW TWO            
SFC LOWS...ONE OVR KS MOVING N TO SCNTRL NEB AND THE MAIN LO IN WRN             
SD BY 00Z.  IN ADDITION...THE RUC HAS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING INTO                
CNTRL NEB THIS AFT WITH ANOTHER WAVE NR FSD.  WOULD EXPECT TSRA TO              
RE-DEVELOP AND FOCUS NR THE WRMFNT AND WITH THE BEST UVVS.  WILL                
CONTINUE CHC OF TSRA FOR TAF AND TON.  LOCALLY HVY RAINS POSSIBLE               
WITH HI PWS AND TRAINING OF TSRA.                                               
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 110852  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
844 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
TRW FIRED ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTN & ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY THE            
TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS MHX CWFA. MSAS SHOWING GOOD                 
THETA-E RIDGE RIDING UP THE CAROLINA CST W/ MAX SFC MOISTURE                    
CONVERGENCE COVERING MOST OF CWFA. 00Z MHX SOUNDING ON SHARP SHOWED             
-12 LI...5K CAPE...2+ INCH PW...30KT WINDS OFF THE SFC & DECENT                 
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. LAST FEW 88D SCANS HAVE SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND              
BUT W/ THE ABOVE IN MIND...THE ACTIVITY COULD GO ON FOR AWHILE                  
LONGER. WILL TAILOR POPS FOR SERN NC BASED ON 88D AT PRESS TIME.                
FOG STAB INDEX FROM MHX RAOB NOT TOO PROMISING OVRNGT BUT ALL THE               
RAIN WILL ENHANCE CHANCES. FOR NERN SC...NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF W/ NO             
REAL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT & NO MORE DAYLIGHT. WILL PROBABLY GO POPLESS             
OVRNGT. CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO LAST NITE SO WILL CONTINUE FOG MENTION.           
DEWPTS IN THE MID 70S INLAND & UPR 70S-NR 80 CST. TEMPS LOOK FINE.              
CWF: LATEST RUC SHOWS A MOSTLY S WIND OVRNGT WHICH SO WILL LEAN THAT            
WAY AS OPPOSED TO VRB. WILL ADD A POP TO NC WATERS IF NEEDED AT PRESS           
TIME.                                                                           
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KRAH 111839  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
915 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONTINUES TO BE LOCATION AND STRENGTH             
OF TSRA OVERNIGHT. 00Z RUC CONSISTENT IN SLOW SE MOVEMENT OF WESTERN            
SD LOW.  ASSOCIATED WELL DIFINED BOUNDARY ALONG ND/SD BORDER FROM               
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS MOVES LITTLE OVERNIGHT. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION             
OF CONCERN TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS OVR SW ND LIKELY TO TRANSFORM INTO            
AN MCS AND TRACK ALONG BOUNDARY IN ZONE OF BEST LOW LEVEL AND MOIST             
CONVERGENCE AS WESTERN WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. FROM PROFILER               
NETWORK H8 LOW LEVEL JET REAMINS WELL SOUTH OF FA AND 00Z RUC                   
INDICATING H8 LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL FLOW MARGINAL FOR SEVERE.             
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF E-W BOUNDARY AND CURRENT CONVECTION OUT WEST WILL            
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND EVENT.  OTHER E-W BAND OF                     
CONVECTION ORIENTED ON NORTHERN EDGE OF ZONE OF ISEN LIFT FROM                  
300-305K SFC OVR NE ND INTO NW MN. BECAUSE OF SLOW EASTWARD                     
PROPAGATION AND TRAINING WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY RAIN. ISEN              
LIFT DOES GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. EXTREME NORTHERN                 
AREAS IN LEAST FAVORABLE AREA FOR RAINFALL WITH DRY LOW LEVEL                   
NORTHEAST FLOW AND NEUTRAL TO DOWNGLIDE WHEN VIEWED FROM ISENTROPIC             
SFC. WITH DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SEE COOLEST TEMPS IN THIS AREA. MAIN              
CHANGES WILL BE TO TOUCH UP TSRA TIMING. WILL LOOK OVER TEMPS BUT NO            
BIG CHANGES PLANNED.                                                            
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 112003  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
915 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER CWA. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER                  
SERN NC MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST SC. BELIEVE PRECIP WILL NOT MAKE IT             
INTO CWA AS INDICATED BY MESO ETA. WILL DELETE SHALLOW COASTAL                  
FLOODING HEADLINE FROM UPDATE.                                                  
CWF: WEAK TROF JUST INLAND KEEPING FLOW S OR SW ACROSS THE WATERS               
THIS EVENING. EXPECT WEAK LOW PRES TO DEVELOP ALG THE TROF OVERNIGHT            
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN SW DIRECTION THRU THE NIGHT. SPEED WISE...SFC             
PRES GRADIENT EASILY SUPPORTS 15 KT AT 00Z BUT 18Z ETA AND LATEST               
RUC SHOW GRADIENT DECREASING LATE. WILL MAINTAIN 15 KT AS AVERAGE               
ON UPDATE. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 4 FT.                                            
NONE                                                                            
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...HEAT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SC040-042>045-047>050.                    
GA...HEAT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON GA087-088-089>101-114>119-                
137>141.                                                                        
JH/RVT                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 120107  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
851 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
A FEW SHRA MADE IT INTO GRAHAM AND SWAIN COUNTIES BUT DISSIPATED                
QUICKLY. NO OTHER PRECIP FOR THE CWFA. 00Z SFC CHART SHOWS LEE TROF             
EAST OF THE CWFA WITH MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR COUNTIES.                
LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA KEEP ATMOS DRY TONIGHT. SAT PIX SHOW SOME                
CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD WITH ONLY             
HALF CATEGORY CHANGES LOWER IN AVL ZONE AND HALF CATEGORY HIGHER GSP            
AND CLT ZONES. WILL ALSO LOWER WINDS TO LIGHT ALL ZONES.                        
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 111903  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPO AT END OF MESSAGE                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
242 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, RUC AND OTHER SHORT TERM             
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  FIRST HINT OF               
RAIN IN THE MODELS IS FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBS TO                 
MENTION IN THE ZONES.  WITH THE DROUGHT STATEMENT BEING ISSUED                  
DON'T PLAN TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL SIGNIFICANT POPS CAN BE                      
MENTIONED AND THAT IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                      
AFTER THAT MRF BRINGS NEW RDG OVER AREA NEXT WEEK. SO BRINGING BACK             
DRY TERMINOLOGY ON MONDAY.                                                      
DWPTS IN 60S TODAY AND FWC KEEPS THINGS FAIRLY DRY WITH NRN TRAJ.               
THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THAT CRYSTALIZED 105 MARK                
OVER ALL BUT EXTREME SRN PART OF CWA.  NO ADVISORIES BUT WILL                   
HIGHLIGHT ZONES WHERE INDEX WILL GO ABOVE 100.                                  
AVL 063/090/065/089 000                                                         
CLT 068/096/069/095 000                                                         
GSP 069/097/070/096 000                                                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
DICARLO                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 111836  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
159 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 1999                                                       
UPDATING UPSTATE SC ZONES FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.                           
WILL MENTION HEAT INDEX ONLY IN ZONES THAT ALREADY HAVE IT                      
IN HEADLINE.  RUC INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW.                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 111348  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
948 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
WL CONT HEAT ADVISORY THRU THE AFTERNOON. XPCT HEAT INDICES 105 TO              
110 ACROSS FA INTO EARLY EVE.                                                   
HIGH TIDE DEPARTURES HAVE PLAGUED AREA DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE.                  
SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY AS TO THE CAUSAL FACTOR. WL HEADLINE ZONES AND            
COASTAL FCSTS WITH SHALLOW CSTL FLOODING.                                       
HEAT WL TURN UP A NOTCH THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT CLD COVER TO INHIBIT             
INSOLATION ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS AT H5 WL CREEP UP SOME TDY AND ONLY             
XPCT ANY CONVECTION LIMITED TO SEAS BRZ. RUC AND MESO OUT OF PHASE              
ON S/W ENERGY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WL ADJUST                   
WORDING FOR PRECIP TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION ISOLATED            
SHRA/TSTMS. TEMPS LOOK IN LINE...RECORD AT CHS 98 AND 99 IN SAV...              
HIGH TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO THESE LEVELS.                                         
CWF...FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY ANTICIPATE MINOR TWEAKS.             
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON SC040-042>045-047>050.                        
GA...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON GA087-088-089>101-114>119-137>141.            
JCI                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 111332  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
917 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
THE 09Z RUC SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA           
THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEPS H7 TEMPERATURES 9 TO 10 IN THE NORTH PART OF           
THE AREA AND 10 TO 11 ACROSS THE SOUTH PART. MODIFYING THE FFC AND GSO          
RAOBS SHOWS THE ETA FORECAST OF MIDDLE 30S K-INDEX VALUES IN THE                
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVERDONE. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING TSTMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT MOST DUE THE WARM MID-LEVEL               
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF MOISTURE. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP THESE WOULD              
PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A WEAK         
BOUNDARY AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.                        
.CAE...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-             
       035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-077                                           
RJL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 111305  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
903 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
NO CHANGES IN THE 10 AM PACKAGE EXPECTED.  LATEST SOUNDINGS AND                 
CURRENT RUC SHOW STRONG CAP THAT WE AREN'T GOING TO BREAK TODAY.  DRY           
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEEKEND WHEN TROUGH GIVES US A SHORT               
RESPITE.                                                                        
MRF PUTTING HIGH RIGHT ON TOP OF US NEXT WEEK. SO ANOTHER EXTENDED              
HOT SPELL IN THE MAKING.  NEW DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
DICARLO                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 111137 AMD  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1019 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SEEN ON VIS               
PICS WITH LOTS OF BREAKS INDICATIVE OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERN             
THIS MORNING. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY NORTHERN VT. MORE CLOUDS IN             
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR ROC AND           
WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THOUGH            
SFC CONVECTIVE HEATING MAY BREAK THAT UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES                    
GENERALLY IN THE 70S PER CURRENT TEMPS AND SOUNDINGS.                           
RUC INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROF ALREADY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA                 
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING UPSTREAM.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY              
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED ON ALY SOUNDING MODIFIED           
SFC T/TD OF 72/60 IS ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER...MORE THAN THAT WOULD              
RESULT IN THUNDER. RUC/03Z ETA INDICATE THAT WOULD NOT HAPPEN IN                
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND NO THUNDER NORTH OF VT/MA BORDER AND NW TO ART            
VCNTY WARM FRONT.                                                               
BEST CHANCE POPS SW AND S CLOSEST TO WARM FRONT FROM OGS SLK RUT                
VSF. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER AS INSTABILITY JUST NOT ENOUGH.                 
WORKZONES AVBL IN ADMBTV.                                                       
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
SISSON                                                                          
 vt                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
315 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDCTD THAT CU HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY                
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. REGIONAL 88D IMAGE INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS IN              
NRN WEST VIRGINIA AROUND BURNSVILLE AREA AND A CELL OR TWO IN                   
AMHERST. THIS PCPN WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD                  
FRONT. BOTH MM5 SE AND RUC HINTED AT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE                   
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVE. QUESTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST ? WE WILL BE KEEPING A LIGHT POP FOR SE            
WV AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLAND THIS EVENING. DRY WX EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE           
OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF RNK                
CWA...MAY ADD 20 EVENING POP FOR THE PIEDMONT. SURFACE FRONT WILL               
CONTINUE IT MARCH EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND PIVOT            
ACROSS THE UPPER TROF. A WEAK FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW            
AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD. HAVE A GUD EVENING.                                      
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 111438  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
937 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                      
UPDATE COMING TO ADDRESS PRECIPITATION CONCERNS TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION         
THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS IOWA HAS DIED OFF...WITH FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY         
DRY.  NEW CONVECTION FIRED OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WAS MOVING                 
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA.  00Z RUC MODEL INITIALIZED WELL AND            
COVERS SURFACE PATTERN AND QPF QUITE WELL.  IT EXPANDS THIS AREA OF             
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES FURTHER EAST...AND STILL GETS IT INTO                 
NORTHEAST IOWA AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY           
MORNING. PROFILERS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS...           
WITH NOSE APPROACHING SLATER WHERE LIGHT WINDS HAVE NOW COME AROUND             
SOUTHERLY.  WILL ADJUST POPS AND PRECIPITATION WORDING DOWN SOME TONIGHT        
TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST THINKING.                                                 
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.                                                   
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
WELVAERT                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 120158 AMD  wi                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
3 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                        
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC OF PRECIP/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/TIMING OF             
FNT/TEMPS                                                                       
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LO PRES OVR NW KS AND THE                 
PRIMARY SFC LO OVR NW SD.  SFC DEWPOINTS WERE POOLED IN THE 70S NR              
THESE LOWS AND S OF THE WRMFNT OVR NCNTL KS.  THE RUC2 GRAPHICS HAS             
WAA GREATEST N OF THE NRN PLNS WRMFNT...OVR ERN SD...THRU CNTRL                 
NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS AND OK.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXITING THE                
CWFA AND IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES.  THE 18Z            
RUC HAD THE STGR SHTWV OVR CNTRL IA...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES              
IN SE SD AND WRN NEB.                                                           
...FCST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE MCS...YET WITH               
THE CLEARING SKIES...HOT TEMPS AND POOLING WITH THE WRMFNT...THE                
MESOETA HAS AN AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR FM SCNTRL NE INTO KS.  WITH THE             
MAIN LO OVR WCNTL SD THE RUC EXTENDS THE TROF INTO CNTRL NEB WITH               
THE WRMFNT OVR SE NEB.  WITH HI PWS NR THE NEB/KS BORDER...THREAT OF            
LOCALLY HVY RAIN.  WILL CONSIDER WATCH OVR THE SW COUNTY WARNING                
AREA DUE TO THE HVY RAIN THIS AM.  FFG IS ONLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.  AT             
THIS TIME WILL MENTION LOCALLY HVY RAIN AND BRIEF EVE SHIFT TO                  
POTENTIAL.  DUE TO THE CONTINUED WAA CHC FOR PRECIP THIS INTO THUR              
AM.                                                                             
MODELS TRACK THE SFC LO ACRS SRN SD AND INTO NRN IA THUR...CARVING              
OUT AN UPR TROF WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHCS THUR.  COOLER TEMPS            
FOR FRI WITH GOOD CAA                                                           
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 111959  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
312 AM CDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                      
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IS MAIN CONCERN ALONG         
WITH TEMPERATURES.                                                              
06Z SURFACE MAP SHOWING ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR HILL CITY WITH            
WARM FRONT CURVING ALONG KS/NEB BORDER INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI.                 
WATER VAPOR SHOWING PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SW TEXAS            
AND WRN OK...THROUGH CENTRAL KS INTO IOWA.  LASTEST MSAS MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE UNDER THIS PLUME AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES...TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  RADAR HAS SEEN                  
ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL CWA AND FLARES UP AT                
TIMES OVER THE NORTHEAST...ALL IN AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION AND THETA             
ADVECTION.  RUC ALSO SHOWING WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE CENTER PART              
OF STATE EJECTING NORTHEAST.  WILL PROBABLY WORD THE NORTH CENTRAL              
AND AT LEAST NORTHERN PARTS OF NORTHEAST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION              
THIS MORNING...AND A CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF CWA.  FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON HOURS...MODELS TAKE STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LOBE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN                  
PORTIONS OF CWA...TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS             
OF CWA AS WELL...THUS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME 30 PERCENT POPS FOR               
THE EAST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...THE NORTH CENTRAL AND             
BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST WILL HAVE PCPN ONLY IN THE MORNING                 
HOURS.  THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE HAD IMPRESSIVE CAPES...3500-4000 OVER            
THE CWA BUT ALSO HAVE HAD WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS TO CAP CONVECTION.               
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVN AND NGM TO A LESSER DEGREE SHOWING SLIGHTLY            
COOLER 700 MB TEMPS BY 24 HOURS.  IF COVECTION FIRES...COULD                    
POSSIBLY SEE SOME SEVERE BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NORTH            
AND EAST WHERE UPPER DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS MORE FAVORABLE.  FOR              
TONIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES OF PCPN INTO THE EVENING                 
HOURS OVER THE NORTHEAST BUT WILL PROBABLY CONFINE THIS TO JUST THE             
EAST CENTRAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE BOUNDARY AND TAIL END OF            
UPPER SUPPORT COULD KEEP ACTIVITY GOING.  MODELS DRAGGING SOME MID              
LEVEL RH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE NGM EVEN                  
SHOWING SOME QPF STRATLING THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER...FOR NOW WILL            
KEEP THE PARTLY CLOUDY GOING.                                                   
TEMPERATURE-WISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER            
70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 3 AM.  YESTERDAYS HIGHS TO THE SOUTH OF WARM             
FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 105 DEGREES.  MAY HAVE TO UP              
GOING FORECAST INTO THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AT LEAST FOR THE               
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.  GOING FORECAST OF LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO               
UPPER 60S LOOKS OK FOR NOW...NGM HIGHS ON FRIDAY LOOK A BIT HIGH AND            
WILL GO MORE WITH COMPROMISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.             
.TOP...NONE                                                                     
FRANTZ                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KICT 120717  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
TODAY/S PROBLEM HAS BEEN HANDLING THE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE MCC                 
ENTERING THE S LP AND FIGURING OUT WHEN THE RAIN BEGINS. 12Z RUC                
LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THE FEATURES PRETTY WELL. 12Z NGM               
AND ETA LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE RUC FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. HIGH             
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE IS LACKING AT THE MOMENT. WARM ADVECTION AND SOME HEATING              
BY THE SUN WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AS           
FAR AS THE RAIN DEVELOPING MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT IT DOESN/T                 
HAPPEN UNTIL 00Z OR LATER. SO...THIS MEAN THAT WE ARE CHANGING THE              
RAIN TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WILL ADD IT INTO THE REST OF THE                  
ZONES. WILL MENTION THUNDER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN CASE HEATING THIS          
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZES THINGS BY LATER IN THE PERIOD.                           
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 121452  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
...TIMING OF RAIN STILL THE MAIN CONCERN...                                     
...AT 14Z 1000MB SFC LO OVER SD WAS SLOWLY PRODDING EAST.                       
MEANWHILE...MUCH TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS' DISMAY...SUNSHINE HAS                  
BROKEN OUT OVER N WI AND OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. TEMPS WHERE THE SUN              
IS OUT ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S..SO BUMPED UP TEMPS SOME 5-7                  
DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THIS. AM CONCERNED THAT THE EXTRA SOLAR HEATING          
MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD                
THUNDER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS IN THE             
SOUTHERN TIER SHOW 800-1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH TEMPS IN THE MID                  
70S...SO I BEEFED UP THE THUNDER WORDING IN THE SOUTH.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ALTOE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 121446  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
925 AM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                      
...WILL UPDATE FORECAST FOR SW COUNTIES TO PUT IN SHOWERS...                    
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MI AT 13Z AND DOES NOT SEEM            
TO BE DRYING OUT MUCH.  LATEST RUC SHOWS SHTWV ASSOC WITH NRN PART              
OF COMPLEX OVER EXTREME NRN IL/SRN WI.  ALSO RUC INDICATES GOOD                 
DIVEGENCE ASSOC QUASI-COUPLE JET STRUCTURE ON SRN STREAM JET (EXIT              
SEGEMENT OVER WRN PA/WV AND ENTRENCE SEGMENT COMING INTO IOWA).  RUC            
ALSO SHOWS GOOD 850 THTE ADV OVER LK MI BUT WEAKENS SOME AS IT GETS             
INTO SW MI.  SOUNDINGS FROM DTX AND I-SPOT SHOW FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY              
AIR BELOW 600 MB AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND RUC INDICATES 700 WILL NOT                 
MOISTEN AS FAST AS SHTWV IS MOVING. THUS RAIN AREA WILL DIMINISH AS             
IT MOVES ACROSS SRN 1/3 OF LWR MI.                                              
BOTTOM LINE... WILL HAVE SHWRS LIKELY NEAR I-94/BTL AND WEST. CHC               
SHWRS I-96 TO JXN.                                                              
.GRR...NONE                                                                     
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 121132  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999                                                     
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE U.P. TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION.                           
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW            
IN JAMES BAY...TO MENOMINEE COUNTY...TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.                  
SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE             
U.P. ALONG THIS FRONT... BUT KMQT 88D RETURNS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF           
HOURS SHOW THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. EVEN AT THEIR STRONGEST                 
THESE SHOWERS PRODUCED NO LIGHTNING AND HAD QUITE WARM CLOUD TOP                
TEMPERATURES ON THE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS PARTICULARLY             
WEAK AS IT CROSSED THE U.P... THE FRONT IS A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE             
U.P. AND A WARM FRONT TO THE WEST.  BUT HERE IN THE U.P. ITSELF                 
THERE IS A COL IN THE SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN THAT THE FRONT                 
CROSSES... AND THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF VORT MAXIMA ALOFT IN THE                  
REGION AND FLAT 700-300MB QVECTOR FIELD.  WITHOUT THE ASSISTANCE OF             
DIURNAL HEATING TO DESTABALIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER... THE SURFACE FRONT          
ALONE IS APPARENTLY TOO WEAK TO TRIGGER PRECIPITATION.                          
THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT... AND THE SERIOUS                      
PRECIPITATION IS SET TO BEGIN THURSDAY AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT NOW              
NEAR THE KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER APPROACHES THE AREA AND OVERRUNNING             
SERVES AS A MECHANISM FOR THE U.P.   310/320K ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS            
OVER THE U.P. BY 12Z ACCORDING TO THE 12Z ETA NGM AND AVN MODELS.               
BUT NEW MESOETA AND RUC HAVE TRENDED TO A SLOWER SOLUTION.  THIS IS             
INTERESTING SINCE 12Z ETA SHOWED A SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN ITS                  
PREVIOUS 00Z RUN AS WELL.  WILL LEAVE ANY MAJOR REVISION OF WET                 
THURSDAY ZFP FORECAST TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT... BUT MESOETA AND RUC OFFER            
ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR DELAYING RAIN DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT UNTIL VERY                
VERY LATE IN THE 1ST PERIOD. WILL ALSO TAME DOWN THE POPS FROM                  
CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE U.P. TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AND CHANCE IN THE             
EAST. 20Z FLP FOR MQT HAS A POP OF ONLY 35% BY 12Z... WILL                      
COMPRIMISE BETWEEN LATEST MODEL GUIDENCE AND FORECAST CONTINUITY.               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ES                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 120140  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS. THIS IS BECAUSE WE ARE                
SETTING UP FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WX EVENT SHOULD WE GET SFC HEATING.               
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW JUST SW OF ABR...WITH WARM FRONT             
EXTENDING SE INTO WRN IA. ANOTHER QSTNRY FRONT WAS ALONG NRN EDGE OF            
FCST AREA.  MAJOR DRY PUNCH ACRS NRN NEBRASKA PER 12Z LBF SOUNDING...           
WITH UPR LOW OVR ND. 6.7IR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJOR VORTICITY MAXIMA OVR             
NW NEB...AND 12Z RUC EJECTS THIS FEATURE ACRS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.            
IN ADDITION...50-70KT 500-300MB WIND MAX DEVELOPS...WITH THE EXIT               
REGION DIVERGENCE OVR THE TWIN CITIES BY 00Z.                                   
SHOULD CLOUDS ERODE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SFC HEATING...DEWPOINTS NEAR            
70 WILL YIELD CAPES NR 4000 J/KG SRN MN THIS AFTN. FEEL THAT ETA IS             
TOO FAR SOUTH WITH TRACK OF THE SFC LOW...DUE TO TROUBLE RESOLVING              
WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. BEST PRESSURE FALLS AT 15Z ARE OVR CNTRL MN            
NR THE NRN BOUNDARY...AND WOULD EXPECT LOW TO TRACK THAT DIRECTION.             
THIS PLACES MUCH OF CWA UNDER WARM SECTOR THIS AFTN.                            
SECOND PROBLEM IS WITH THE UNSEASONABLY STG UPR LOW. PER COORD                  
WITH SPC...WITH 50H TEMPS DROPPING TO -10 DEG C AND STG VORTICITY...            
WOULD SEEM LIKE A POTENTIAL SITUATION FOR MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES             
ON STORMS IN CNTRL MN WITH INCREASING THREAT OF HAIL/WEAK TORNADOES.            
OVERALL...SEEMS THAT PBL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY.             
WITH MCS OUTFLOW MODIFIED AIR TO OUT SOUTH ADVECTING IN...LOW                   
CLOUDS/STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE...LIMITING SFC HEATING.                   
HOPEFULLY...THIS WILL PREVENT A SVR WX OUTBREAK. HOWEVER...DUE TO               
TIME OF YEAR/STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS AND KEEP            
SVR WX WORDING IN ZONES.                                                        
MPX WILL RELEASE A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING TODAY. DATA AVAILABLE NEAR              
130 PM CDT.                                                                     
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 121519  mn                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
945 AM CDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                      
SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                  
REGION WITH SHORT WAVES HEADING WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF.                     
LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING NO CAP TODAY. AFTERNOON MODIFICATIONS SHOW LIFTED       
INDEXES AT -7...PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.2 INCHES...WITH A HAIL INDEX OF         
36,400 FEET. UPPER PLOTS SHOW THE RIDGE CENTER OVER THE REGION WITH             
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.               
12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS MEAN MOISTURE MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH             
MISSISSIPPI...WITH RATHER DRY READINGS OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME     
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. SO WITH GOOD AFTERNOON SOUNDING INDICES AND NO REAL         
CAP...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTH.                                                                          
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
17                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 120828  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1000 AM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
FORECASTS FOR AFTERNOON LOOK GOOD FOR MOST PART. MAY ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS      
A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS BEFORE ISSUANCE.               
RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWING LEFT OVER VORT MAX FROM MCS IN MIDWEST                 
DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWFA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH             
SOME VERY WEAK DPVA BUT LITTLE OMEGA UPLIFT SHOWING UP.  FORECAST               
TEMPS ALOFT VERY WARM HOWEVER...WITH AREA WELL CAPPED. IT WOULD TAKE            
SOME REAL GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME CAP AND               
GET ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP.                                               
NO MORNING RAOB FROM ATLANTA...BUT NASHVILLE AND GREENSBORO QUITE               
UNSTABLE WITH  DEWPOINTS MODIFIED TO NEAR 70. CURRENTLY...LOW LEVELS            
MUCH DRIER THAN THAT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA BUT DO HAVE                 
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WITH MIXING THIS                      
AFTERNOON...SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY DRY OUT MORE...SO NOT MUCH CHANCE             
FOR FIRING ANYTHING BUT AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN             
PORTIONS.                                                                       
TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.                       
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 120728  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1040 AM CDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING.                                                                        
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH                   
DAKOTA...WHILE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IA              
TOWARD ST LOUIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY            
SHOWED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WITH PRONOUNCED DRYING          
ADVANCING INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN. GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY              
INDICATED ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH               
LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 4 TO MINUS 6.                                           
12Z RUC...ETA AND NGM SHOWED SURFACE LOW TO BE ALONG MN/IOWA BORDER             
NEAR ALBERT LEA MN BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WHILE WARM FRONT EXTENDS               
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN IL. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH 900 MB         
MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL DRYING ANTICIPATED TO          
CONTINUE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MN.                                   
ANTICIPATING BEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND            
PERHAPS SOUTHWEST CORNER OF WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY         
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF           
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS DUE TO PROXIMITY OF FRONT AND STRONG HELICITY          
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...SOUTHEAST MN INTO CENTRAL WI...STILL             
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT DUE TO MORE         
CLOUDS PREVENTING ATMOSPHERE FROM DESTABILIZING AS MUCH AS AREAS FURTHER        
SOUTH.                                                                          
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ZONES EXPECTED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE...WHICH              
WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM.                                                        
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 120834  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
120 PM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                      
CURRENT...A MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS EVIDENT ON VSBL IMAGERY ACROSS            
THE SRN MOST FA. A SHARP LINE DELINEATES AN AREA OF CU CLOUD STREET             
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH.              
THE LINE EXTENDS FROM FLAGLER BEACH THROUGH THE OCALA NATIONAL                  
FOREST THROUGH OCALA TO THE CEDAR KEYS. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN                  
SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH AND THINK IT WILL EXTEND S OF HIGHWAY 16 BY               
MAX HEATING. ALSO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE IS DEVELOPING FROM PONTE              
VEDRA SOUTH. THESE SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR AFTERNOON                
CONVECTION. RUC SHOWS THE SFC MOISTURE DIVERGENCE OVER SE GA AND                
THAT LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE THE HOT SPOT BY THE END OF THE DAY.            
MODELS/SYNOPTIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AND             
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES BUT CANT AGREE WRT LOW LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS            
THE SERN US. THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER TX WITH            
A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING E TO THE GA COAST. A SECOND HIGH CENTER IS              
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE OVER SRN AL AND THE SUBSIDENT REGION FROM THIS            
HIGH IS ENTRENCHED OVER THE FA. REALLY HARD TO SEE HOW ANYTHING IS              
GOING TO BLOW THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER SERN GA AND                 
EXTREME NERN FL. ADDITIONALLY...ETA SHOWS AN AREA OF NVA MOVING SWD             
ACROSS THE FA INTO FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD SQUASH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. IN             
THE LOW LEVELS THE MODELS AGREE ON A TROUGH AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE              
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS THEIR ALL               
OVER THE MAP WITH WEAK FEATURES. NGM/AVN DEVELOP A LOW OFF THE CAPE             
AND MOVE IT WEST WITH/AS A SFC TROUGH AND ETA MAINTAINS A SFC TROUGH            
OVER THE PEN AND SLOWLY MOVES IT WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS IS REALLY               
ONLY A CONCERN WRT TO THE MARINE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION AS THERE IS            
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION OVER THE FA AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF              
COOLING LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE SHOULD                
SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER              
THE BAHAMAS ON SAT SO THINGS MAY GET A LITTLE COOLER AFTER                      
FRIDAY...DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S!                                          
MARINE...AS NOTED ABOVE THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM.            
WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW 15 KT AND 5 FT...SO MAINLY AN ACADEMIC                 
QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK CLOSER TO ETA AND WILL NOT BITE ON A                  
SWITCH TO NE WINDS.                                                             
BTW FOR FRIDAY AT 8 PM...THE FWC GUIDANCE OF 87 DEGREES AND A DWPT              
OF 76 DEGREES YIELDS A HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 98...JUST IN CASE ANYONE            
WAS WONDERING ABOUT THAT TIME FOR ANY STRANGE REASON.                           
PRELIM                                                                          
SSI 79/95/79/93 05000                                                           
AMG 77/100/75/96 05022                                                          
JAX 77/99/76/96 05000                                                           
GNV 76/96/75/94 05021                                                           
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 121413  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 PM EDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                      
FCST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND WIDESPREAD EVENT RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRI             
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSES.                                                     
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN SHOWS POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING E ACROSS               
DAKOTAS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET                
TRACKING NE THRU PLAINS IS ALSO CLEARLY EVIDENT. RIGHT ENTRANCE                 
REGION OF 110 KT UPPER JET ACROSS ONTARIO PRODUCING STRONG UPPER                
DIVG ACROSS DAKOTAS/MN. RESULT IS LARGE AREA OF RA/TSRA. AT THE                 
SFC...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN NE SD TO THE E OF KABR. 3HR SFC               
PRESSURE TENDENCY FIELDS INDICATE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ON GENERAL                
DUE EAST COURSE AT LEAST FOR THE SHORT TERM.                                    
MODELS ALL ALONG HAD BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT NOW THAT             
THE EVENT IS PRACTICALLY HERE AT LEAST DONT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT                 
TIMING DIFFICULTIES. MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM AS              
IT PASSES TONIGHT/FRI MORNING. 12Z ETA TRACKS LOW FARTHER N THAN                
PREVIOUS RUNS AND AS A RESULT TAKES HEAVIEST RAINFALL FARTHER                   
N...ACROSS N END OF LK SUPERIOR RATHER THAN S OF FA. NGM/AVN...                 
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...TAKE LOW THRU CNTRL LOWER MI.             
GIVEN CURRENT POSITION OF LOW FARTHER N THAN 6 HR FCSTS OF ALL                  
MODELS...WILL PLAN ON LOW TRACKING ACROSS N WI AND THEN N LK                    
MICHIGAN EARLY FRI MORNING. EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR A GOOD               
RAIN EVENT FOR FA. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75                  
INCHES THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. WITH UPPER JET              
ACROSS ONTARIO TRANSLATING E...UVM ACROSS FA WILL BE ENHANCED BY DIVG           
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE                    
EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME OF WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST                     
RAINFALL. LI'S REMAIN POSITIVE OVER ALL BUT FAR S FA WHERE LI'S FALL            
TO 0 TO -2 AND CAPES INCREASE TO 100 TO 400 J/KG BY 06Z.                        
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND UVM FCST BY MODELS...WILL                   
INCLUDE THUNDER IN FCST FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS PRUDENT               
GIVEN OCCASIONAL THUNDER OCCURRING N OF LOW THIS AFTN.                          
SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST OF FA LATE FRI MORNING AND SO WILL NEED TO                
CARRY MORNING PRECIP MENTION. SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES QUICKLY BEHIND                 
SYSTEM FRI. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CAA/LINGERING                     
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CLEARING...AND ANY SUNSHINE WILL LEAD             
TO CU DEVELOPMENT. CAA AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 20-30 KNTS WILL MAKE            
FOR A BREEZY DAY.                                                               
850 TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LK EFFECT CLOUDINESS BY            
SAT MORNING. WITH THERMAL TROF PASSING LATE SAT MORNING AND SFC                 
RIDGE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL SAT NIGHT...SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU                      
DEVELOPMENT SAT.                                                                
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF/CANADIAN/ECMWF TRENDING SLOWER WITH WAA                   
PATTERN AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING N PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.            
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT SAT NIGHT AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS              
FA. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S. WILL DROP MENTION OF SHRA              
ON SUN GIVEN SLOWER TREND OF MODELS. SHRA/TSRA CHANCE WILL COME                 
SUN NIGHT INTO TUE...FIRST DUE TO WAA EVENT THEN WITH PASSING OF                
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF             
FRONT. UKMET IS FASTEST...BRINGING FRONT THRU MON EVENING. ECMWF IS             
SLOWEST...WITH PASSAGE WED MORNING. MRF/CANADIAN DEPICT PASSAGE ON              
TUE. WILL GO MIDDLE GROUND AND MESH WITH GOING FCST BY CONTINUING               
SHRA CHC MON AND THEN ADDING CHC TO TUE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD                
THEN SET UP WELL SOUTH OF FA AND ALLOW FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY                      
WED/THU.                                                                        
MARINE DISC...WIND FUNNELING DOWN WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN             
REACHING GALE FORCE. 18Z RUC SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING            
TO 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND PER COORD CALL WITH DLH...35-40KNT                 
WINDS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ON THE FAR W END OF LK. WILL ISSUE GALE            
WARNING FOR W 1/3RD LK TONIGHT.                                                 
.MQT...GALE WARNING WEST 1/3RD LK SUPERIOR TONIGHT.                             
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 121921  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1020 AM CDT THU AUG 12 1999                                                     
UPDATED JUST THE FSD AND SOME OF SWRN MN ZONE EARLIER TO PROLONG THE            
STRATUS A BIT. OTHERWISE ZONES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. CRNT SFC               
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR THE NE QUAD OF SD...AND SAT PIX SHOWS A             
DRY SLOT INTRUDING INTO SRN HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY FM I 90 SWD. RUC            
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS LLVL MSTR THIS MRNG...AND PROGS A DRYING              
AT THE 925 AND 850MB LVLS THIS AFTN OVR ALL OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE               
NORTH. FNT PROCEEDS EWD THRU MIDDAY...AND RUC PROGS MOST OF CWA TO              
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 925 AND 850MB BY EARLY THIS AFTN. NLG PROFILER             
IS ALREADY UNIDIRECTIONAL FM THE W AND WSW...WITH NO HOPE OF VEERING            
LATER TDAY. WDL PROFILER SHOWS GOOD VEERING...BUT THIS WL CHANGE BY             
MID TO LATE AFTN. PROG INSTABILITY FM THE RUC DOES SHOW SOME UNSTABLE           
AIR IN THE FAR ERN SECTION OF CWA THIS AFTN WHERE LLVL CONV WL BE               
THE GREATEST. FEEL THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHC FOR TSTM DVLPMENT AND             
SVR POSSIBILITY...AND SLIM AND NONE ELSEWHERE WITH THE UNI                      
DIRECTIONAL WRLY WNDS USHERING IN DRY AIR AND STRONG 850MB CAA.                 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AMNT OF STRATUS THAT IS COOLING THE AIR FM I 29             
EWD...WL SEE HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN CLEAR OUT BEFORE WND SHIFT LINE               
WORKS THRU. ATTM...FEEL THE SPC MDT RISK IS PROBABLY OVERDONE IN ERN            
SECTION OF CWA AND WL TONE DOWN WORDING AT 11 AM SIG WX OTLK.                   
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 121457  sd