AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO THE HOURLY               
GRIDS TODAY. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TODAY WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS                
CLOUDS STREAKING ACROSS CENTRAL IL. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S               
WITH SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.                                                     
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND              
AND RIDGING SW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN FAR SE IL AND ACROSS             
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER CENTRAL LAKE                 
WINNIPEG WITH A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE            
HIGH PLAINS. NEARLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL/SE IL THIS MORNING               
WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM THE IL RIVER VALLEY NW AND HAS BEEN             
DISSIPATING AS IT DRIFTS EAST. TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S EASTERN              
IL AND UPPER 40S WESTERN IL WITH QUINCY UP TO 51F. LOW DEWPOINTS IN             
THE LOWER 30S WITH SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. ALOFT A 589 DM 500 MB HIGH            
PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/TX RIO AND RIDGING INTO IL WHILE              
553 DM CUTOFF 500 MB LOW WAS EAST OF MRYTLE BEACH SC.                           
RUC AND NAM/WRF KEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER IL AND SURFACE HIGH JUST            
EAST SO AMPLE SUNSHINE AND SSE WINDS TO CONTINUE. YESTERDAY WE ONLY             
MIXED UP TO 950 MB WHICH SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME TODAY TO GIVE                 
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC... AND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE               
COASTAL CAROLINAS... THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FARTHER UPSTREAM              
ACROSS THE CONUS WILL REMAIN STATIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.             
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE... BUT               
THIS STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A MORE DISTURBED            
WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK.                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY STAYED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST            
OF THE AREA AS THE STRONGEST WAA REMAINED OFF TO OUR WEST... AND                
MIXING WAS RATHER LIMITED WITH A STRONG INVERSION OVERHEAD.                     
OVERALL THE WX MAP TODAY WILL LOOK VERY MUCH LIKE A CARBON COPY OF              
YESTERDAY.  WAA WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER IOWA AS THE H85 RIDGE AXIS             
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  CONTINUED STRONG               
INVERSION WILL KEEP MIXING POTENTIAL LIMITED.  OVERALL... EXPECT                
TODAY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY... BUT REMAIN IN THE                 
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S... WARMEST AROUND SPI AND IJX.  NIGHT TIME TEMPS            
WILL BE ON THE UPSWING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... BUT WITH SFC                
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA TONIGHT... WE               
COULD STILL DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.  FARTHER WEST... WARMER AIR            
WILL BE FILTERING IN... ALONG WITH A CONTINUED STREAM OF CIRRUS                 
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 30S.                             
FOCUS OF WAA WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY... BRINGING UPPER            
50S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 60 SOUTH OF I-72.  COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY                
NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOW AND WEAK.  LACK OF CLOUD COVER... AND              
INCREASED SFC GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW A LITTLE MORE MIXING THAN THE               
PAST COUPLE DAYS... AND THIS MAY BE THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS FAR EAST             
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                                                               
GFS TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME QPF ALONG THE STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ON               
SATURDAY... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY THIS POTENTIAL AS AIR MASS            
WILL REMAIN DRY... WITH BEST RETURN FLOW NOT COMING IN UNTIL EARLY              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
BY THE WEEKEND... THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE LIFTED            
OUT... ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERIC LOG JAM TO FREE UP ACROSS THE CONUS             
AND NORTH PACIFIC.  LOOKS LIKE A DECENT PATTERN SHIFT ON TAP FOR                
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  FRIDAYS FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS OUR AREA...               
BUT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH.                
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS...                
WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY            
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET NOSING              
INTO THE AREA AND RESULTING IN A DUAL JET STRUCTURE OVER THE                    
MIDWEST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST              
OF THE PERIOD.  FREQUENT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THE              
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUN-TUE... INTERACTING            
WITH THE STALLED OUT BAROCLINIC ZONE... AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR             
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE               
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT WITH RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING            
THROUGH.                                                                        
WHAT WILL BE MOST IMPORTANT AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK IS WHAT WILL              
HAPPEN AS THIS WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SWINGS THROUGH            
THE AREA.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH GREATER PRECIP POTENTIAL              
LOOKS LIKELY BY MIDWEEK.  GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH THE TIMING...               
ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER... AND THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY WITH STRONG                 
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST.  GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING IN THIS                    
DIRECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HRS AS WELL.  SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD BRING            
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY... SO THE TUE POPS REMAIN                   
SLIGHTLY DOWNPLAYED CONSIDERING THE HIGHER POTENTIAL JUST OUTSIDE               
THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
945 AM MST WED NOV 22 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.                 
SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA WITH NORTH TO                
NORTHWEST WINDS A BIT STRONGER (10-15 MPH) THEN PREVIOUSLY                      
EXPECTED. 850 TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS                 
GENERALLY IN THE 70-74 RANGE. HAVE TWEAKED A FEW AREAS UP A DEGREE              
OR TWO AS A RESULT. A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY BUT NOT EXPECTED TO               
BE REACHED INCLUDE YUMA COLORADO...COLBY KANSAS...AND MCCOOK                    
NEBRASKA. WAVE ENHANCED CIRRUS STARTING TO DISSIPATE EXCEPT ACROSS              
THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE ITS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. OTHER                         
ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THE HOURLY DEWPOINT GRIDS WHICH GENERALLY                   
FOLLOW THE 12Z NAM/15Z RUC FORECASTS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1000 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH              
TONIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT                  
NORTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST OF THE GULF              
OF MAINE FRIDAY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST              
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING AHEAD OF MID ATLANTIC                 
LOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE               
UPDATED SKY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA. HIGH PRESSURE                
OVER NORTHERN MOST SECTIONS IS ERODING SOME OF THE CIRRUS ALONG THE             
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE...THUS SOME                   
BREAKS OF SUN COULD RETURN TO THE DOWNEAST INTERIOR LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD WINDS              
BASED ON LATEST RUC. WILL LOOK AT 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY                
ADDITIONAL CHANGES.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT           
THEN MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH                    
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TRACK EAST OF THE GULF OF                 
MAINE FRIDAY. THIS LOW COULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO DOWNEAST AREAS           
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                                      
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
MAIN MAP FEATURES INCLUDE A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS                 
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. TO THE                  
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING               
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS TRACKS THIS LOW OUT TO SEA WELL                 
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NAM ON THE OTHER                 
HAND BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS THE OTHER PORTION OF THE GULF OF MAINE               
FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE CHOSEN TO BASE THE FORECAST ON THE GFS SINCE               
IT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE                 
TRACK OF THIS LOW WHILE THE LATEST NAM RUN IS A MORE RADICAL                    
DEPARTURE. HAVE CREATED TEMPERATURE AND WIND GRIDS WITH A                       
COMBINATION OF THE MAV/MET. HAVE LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT                 
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SKY                 
GRIDS HAVE BEEN MANUALLY MODIFIED TO HANDLE AREA OF MID CLOUDS                  
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND TO KEEP HIGH CLOUD                     
PERCENTAGES TO OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. POPS FOR THIS PERIOD               
HAVE BEEN KEPT MOSTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT DUE TO THE SOUTHERN TRACK                
OF THE LOW. THERE ARE MINIMAL POPS OVER THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT                
AS THE LOW PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                     
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                   
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM W/              
COASTAL SYSTEM INITIALLY LIFTING N TOWARD THE FA BEFORE PULLING E               
OF THE AREA ON FRI... GFS/NAM-WRF BOTH BRING NRN EDGE OF THE                    
PRECIP SHIELD INTO OUR DOWNEAST AREAS BY THU EVE W/ THE NAM-WRF                 
JUST A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE. USING A COMPROMISE APPROACH YIELDS                  
MAINLY CHC POPS THU NGT INTO FRI AM DOWNEAST W/ POPS PULLING EWRD               
OUT OF THE AREA BY FRI AFTN. THIS IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS SOLNS                 
HAD SHOWED AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. LATER SHIFTS                
MAY NEED TO BOOST POPS UP TO LIKELY IF PRECIP SHIELD SHIFTS JUST A              
BIT FURTHER N BUT BELIEVE CHC POPS WARRANTED ATTM. FOR THE                      
WEEKEND...ALL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM WELL E OF THE AREA W/ XTNSV               
HGH PRES RDG CENTERED OVER THE AREA THRU SAT... SEE NO REASON TO                
CONT TO CARRY CHC POPS DOWNEAST SO HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND                  
DROPPED POPS FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION. GFS HINTS AT A WEAK SYSTEM                
GRAZING FAR NRN AND NWRN AREAS SAT NGT INTO SUN AND HAVE INCREASED              
CLDS THERE BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY POPS ATTM... APPEARS THAT THE               
MILD WX PTRN OF LATE WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND W/ ABOVE AVG                 
TEMPS CONTG...                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE NXT 24 HRS...                   
MARINE...                                                                       
FOR TODAY HAVE USED THE NAM12 WINDS WHICH ARE PREFERRED IN THE                  
LIGHT WIND ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE HIGH. FOR TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY                
HAVE TRANSITIONED TO THE GFS WIND FIELD SINCE THE GFS TRACK OF LOW              
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS PREFERRED. FOR SEAS             
HAVE INITIALIZED THE WAVE GRIDS WITH THE WNA WAVE WATCH III.                    
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SEAS STILL AROUND 1 FOOT. EXPECT                   
SEAS TO BUILD TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WIND INCREASES AND SWELL FROM                
SOUTHERLY SYSTEM ENTERS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GFS HAS BEEN                    
TRENDING TOWARDS A MORE NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FOR THE                   
FETCH AROUND THE OCEAN LOW AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE EASTERLY                      
ORIENTATION OF YESTERDAYS RUNS. THIS WILL DIRECT THE LARGEST SWELL              
FIELD SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS...THE WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO DO A                
REASONABLE JOB HANDLING THIS SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY MANUAL CHANGES.               
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE MENTION OF SWELL IN THE FORECAST.                          
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...LULOFS                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1013 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...BESIDES SOME HIGH LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE            
AREA IN THE FORM OF SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS...NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON            
IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT THIS EVENING. LATEST SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC            
ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING SOUTHWEST ACROSS              
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN FROM PARENT CENTER OVER NORTHERN MAINE...WHILE MID            
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL             
PLAINS REGION. NORTHERN MICHIGAN FAR REMOVED FROM ANY ACTIVE WEATHER            
WITH SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST UP THE              
EASTERN SEABOARD AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED              
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. COLD FRONT               
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM ONTARIO LOW ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA                   
MARCHING STEADILY EAST...BUT EXCEEDINGLY DRY LOW AND MID LEVEL                  
ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (LOCAL 00Z SOUNDING HAD PWAT               
VALUE OF ONLY 0.39 INCHES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID 20 TO               
LOW 30 DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST) RESULTING IN               
NEARLY CLOUD FREE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT RATHER TRIVIAL AND CENTER ON TEMPERATURES            
AS WELL AS ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES.                                            
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THIS TYPE OF DRY AIR REGIME ALWAYS DIFFICULT            
AND USUALLY CENTER ON AMOUNT OF DECOUPLING IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.             
CASE IN POINT...OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF                
NEARLY CALM WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY DROP INTO THE             
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY              
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WOULD EXPECT                       
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO STABILIZE IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL              
MORE HOURS OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL                
MAKE THE APPROPRIATE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES.                      
ELSEWHERE...FORECASTED LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S APPEAR ON TARGET              
AS READINGS SLOW TO FALL THIS EVENING GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS.             
MARINE...00Z NAM-WRF STILL PERSISTENT IN SHOWING 950MB WINDS                    
INCREASING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN            
UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING THESE TYPE OF                
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES               
(LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 7C TO 10C WITH 950MB TEMPERATURES                 
PROGGED AT 5C TO 8C). STILL...FEEL POTENTIAL OF WIND GUSTS                      
APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLD OF 25 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY             
MORNING AND WILL THEREFORE LEAVE GOING ADVISORIES IN TACT.                      
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS OUT SHORTLY.                                                
BOGUTH                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 321 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALING SW-NE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN                 
CONUS EMANATING FROM EASTERN PAC TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ON THE WEST              
COAST. UPSTREAM...SHORT WAVE WORKING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA THIS                   
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                    
MEANWHILE...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EVIDENT OVER THE SRN PLAINS NOSING              
UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE BIG CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE FIXED FROM NEW            
ENGLAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO                   
ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE               
NRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS               
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY STREAM INTO NRN MICHIGAN.                      
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXPECTED TO                
HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AND PERHAPS EVEN SHARPEN UP A BIT ACROSS THE            
STATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES BY WELL TO              
THE NORTH WHILE REMNANTS OF WEAK UPSTREAM SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT            
SLIPS INTO THE NRN PART OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. NOTHING TO WORK               
WITH HERE IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS AFTERNOON SFC DEWPOINTS             
ACROSS INTERIOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN CRASHED INTO THE TEENS...                    
INDICATIVE OF THE DRY ATMOSPHERE. SO OTHER THAN PERIODIC BOUTS OF               
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY                   
WEATHER LOOKING TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD. DESPITE DEWPOINTS                
CRASHING INTO THE TEENS AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONGER WINDS ABOVE               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP A 5 TO 15 MPH SFC WIND GOING OVERNIGHT             
AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM CRASHING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING              
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S...A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.             
MARINE...STRONGER WINDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS                 
UPPER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT SO FAR GUSTS ARE               
WELL BELOW GALE FORCE. 950 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAMP UP INTO THE            
30-40 KNOT RANGE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN UPPER                    
MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING...STILL RAISING THE POSSIBILITIES FOR                
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...OVER WATER STABILITY WILL PLAY A               
ROLE TONIGHT AS 950 MB TEMPS HEAD INTO THE 5-10C RANGE WHILE LAKE               
MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS RUNNING 7-10C...A STABLE SCENARIO. GIVEN                   
THIS...PROLONGED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH GUSTS INTO            
THE MID AND HIGH 20 KNOT RANGE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO. THUS...AFTER             
COLLABORATION WITH CHICAGO...WILL CANCEL THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS              
WITH THE AFTERNOON NEARSHORE FORECAST ISSUANCE.                                 
ADAM                                                                            
LATER PERIODS (FRIDAY ONWARD)...DIFFICULT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WITH            
MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES AND ON               
SOUTHWARD INFILTRATION OF COLD AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  LONGWAVE              
PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AS WELL...RESULTING IN RATHER               
SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL             
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  SO THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CENTER PCPN                
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND FROPA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                 
RATHER QUIET AND COMFORTABLE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH 1024MB SURFACE RIDGE            
AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA AND WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT SAGGING               
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES.  INCREASE IN H8-H5 MOISTURE DURING             
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND                 
AFTERNOON CLOUDS.  850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +6 TO +8 DEGC                      
RANGE...SO ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S            
TO LOWER 50S.  LIMITED DYNAMICS AND VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS              
FRONT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.                                          
ON SATURDAY...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ON THE 300K SURFACE AS               
WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO                
OVERRIDE LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ACROSS MICHIGAN.  LOW LEVELS FAIRLY               
MOIST />80% H10-H8/ BUT QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN H8-H5                    
INITIALLY...SO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN                
IN THE AFTERNOON /MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA/.  WARM               
FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY             
AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL PUT CHANCE                
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.  PCPN ALL LIQUID...WITH                  
SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER GREATER THAN 3K IN ALL AREAS.                          
EARLY IN THE WEEK...THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE                   
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.                 
FIRST COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR                 
EARLY MONDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER 850MB AIR TO SAG SOUTH INTO               
THE AREA /H8 TEMPS -1 TO -3 DEGC/.  ALL EYES THEN TURN TOWARD                   
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE PLAINS.  ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE DOWN            
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A BIG SNOW EVENT POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN                 
ROCKIES INTO PARTS OF THE DAKOTA/S.  BY TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW MOVES             
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DRAWING A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO                   
MICHIGAN.  THIS COULD INITIALLY BE A LIGHT MIXED OVERRUNNING EVENT              
FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN LATER TUESDAY OR            
TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL NOT GET TOO DETAILED WITH THINGS THAT FAR                  
OUT...GOING WITH CHANCE RAIN SOUTH OF M-72 ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE              
OF RAIN OR SNOW NORTH OF THIS AREA.                                             
ARCTIC FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS VARYING BY ABOUT            
12 HOURS IN THE SPEED OF FROPA...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TREND IN ALL                  
MODELS HAS BEEN LESS PROGRESSIVE AND MORE AMPLIFIED.  THIS FAR                  
OUT...WILL TAKE AN ECWMF/GFS BLEND AND BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE               
AREA DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT MEANS BUSINESS...AS                
TEMPERATURES COULD START THE DAY NEAR 50 AND END THE DAY IN THE                 
20S.  THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOT OF WIND...WITH GALES OR EVEN STORMS              
POSSIBLE ON THE LAKES.   COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE AREA FOR THE END             
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE GOING IN W/NW FLOW AREAS.              
JK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
325 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WSW FLOW ALF E OF             
TROF OFF THE W COAST BRINGING MILD PACIFIC AIR TO THE NRN CONUS. 12Z            
H85 TEMPS APRCHG 15C OVER THE NRN PLAINS...WITH READINGS 5-10C OVER             
THE CWA THIS MRNG PER LOCAL RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS. NOON TEMP ALREADY UP            
TO 52 AT BARAGA...WITH READINGS APRCHG 50 IN A NUMBER OF OTHER                  
LOCATIONS. FARTHER W...MIXING TO JUST H9 ON BIS SDNG WOULD SUPPORT              
TMAX IN THE UPR 60S. THESE SDNGS ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY LOW-MID             
TROP. THERE IS A BAND OF HI CLD STRETCHING FM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO             
THE UPR GRT LKS ON ACYC SIDE OF H3 JET AXIS...BUT 12Z MPX SDNG SHOWS            
HIER MSTR CONFINED AOA H5. PWAT UPSTREAM AS LO AS 0.15 INCH AT RAP.             
THERE IS A SHRTWV LIFTING ENEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN WITH SFC LO NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG ATTM...BUT AIRMASS IN WARM SECTOR IS SO DRY THERE IS NOT            
A CLD ON ATTENDANT COLD FNT EXTENDING S INTO SDAKOTA DESPITE FAIRLY             
SHARP WSHFT ALG THIS BNDRY. ANOTHER SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN TROF OFF             
THE W COAST IS APRCHG THE PAC NW COAST. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED IN THE             
GLFAK.                                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS REVOLVE MAINLY ARND TEMPS AS               
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN UPR RDG PERSISTING INTO THE GRT LKS THRU            
THU. FOCUS FOR FRI WL SHIFT TO TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW APRCHG               
THE PAC NW FCST.                                                                
FOR TNGT...SHRTWV IN SASKATCHEWAN/ACCOMPANYING SFC LO FCST TO MOVE              
THRU NW ONTARIO AND REACH A POSITION NR JAMES BAY BY 12Z THU...WITH             
ATTENDANT COLD FNT PASSING THRU THE CWA BY 12Z. STORM TRACK IS SO               
FAR TO THE N AND ANTECEDENT AIRMASS SO DRY THERE SHOULD BE NO PCPN              
AND LTL IF ANY CLD COVER. SUSPECT HI CLD WL CONT TO PLAGUE MAINLY               
THE SRN ZNS AS BAND OF CI/CS SHOWING SIGNS OF PRESSING SLOWLY SWD               
THIS AFTN. NAM/GFS SHOW SW H925 WINDS AS HI AS 35-40KTS AHEAD OF THE            
FNT THIS EVNG GIVING WAY TO A LIGHTER NW FLOW LATER TNGT BEHIND THE             
FROPA. QUITE A DISCREPANCY ON MOS FCST LO TEMPS TNGT WITH ETA MOS AS            
MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN GFS MOS AT A COUPLE OF SPOTS.               
CONSIDERING VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM AND A FEW MIN TEMP REPORTS IN THE             
LO/MID 20S THIS MRNG UPSTREAM NR THE FNT...WL TEND TOWARD THE LOWER             
END OF GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR W WHERE WINDS WL GO LIGHTER BEHIND            
EARLIER FROPA AND HI CLD WL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT.                             
ON THU...FA WL UNDER THE DOMINATION OF SHRTWV RDGING BEHIND                     
DEPARTING SHRTWV...WITH AXIS OF HI PRES EXTENDING S FM CENTER IN NW             
ONTARIO THRU THE CWA. EXCEPT FOR SOME MAINLY AFTN HI CLD SPILLING               
OVER APRCHG RDG AXIS...THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSUNNY. SINCE THE HI PRES             
CENTER WL BE N OF THE CWA...EXPECT A N FLOW VEERING E TO DOMINATE AS            
THE RDG SLIPS TO THE E. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WL BE A MILD PACIFIC               
ONE...COMBINATION OF LOWER H85 TEMPS (ARND 7C) AND LIGHT ONSHORE                
FLOW WL MEAN A COOLER DAY...ESPECIALLY NR LK SUP. OVER INLAND                   
AREAS...MIXING TO H9 ON GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS CLOSE TO             
THEIR RESPECTIVE MOS FCSTS (ETA MOS HIER THAN GFS MOS). CONSIDERING             
UPSTREAM WARMTH WITH TEMPS ARPCHG 60 EVEN BEHIND COLD FNT...WL BUMP             
FCST HI TEMPS UP OVER INLAND AREAS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                         
ON THU NGT/FRI...SHRTWV NOW APRCHG THE PAC NW AND ACCOMPANYING SFC              
LO CENTER FCST TO LIFT TO NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z FRI AND INTO NW               
ONTARIO BY 00Z SAT. GFS/NAM SHOW SLY WINDS AT H925 INCRSG TO                    
40-50KTS DURING THU NGT AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT THIS FLOW APPEARS             
TO TAP LTL IN THE WAY OF MSTR AS PWAT FCST TO RISE TO JUST A BIT ABV            
0.50 INCH. SO DESPITE SOME FAIRLY SHARP ISENTROPIC LIFT...GFS FCST              
SDNGS SHOW AN ATMOSPHERE PROHIBITIVELY DRY FOR PCPN. SINCE NO MODEL             
NOW FCSTS MEASUREABLE PCPN OVER THE LAND FA THRU 00Z SAT AND ETA/GFS            
MOS POPS UNDER 20...WL REMOVE POPS FM THE ENTIRE FA EXCEPT W-N LK               
SUP. SUSPECT HOWEVER THERE WL BE SOME SC AS GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS                  
SHOW A LYR OF HIER RH H9-85 COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER SW FLOW                
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTERS ATTENDANT PACIFIC TYPE COLD FNT PROGGED TO             
MOVE BY DURING THE DAY FRI. OTRW...INCRSG SLY FLOW WL GREATLY                   
DIMINISH DIURNAL FALL OF TEMP THU NGT...SO TENDED TOWARD THE HI END             
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. GOING FCST HI TEMPS LOOK TO BE A GOOD            
COMPROMISE BTWN LOWER GFS/HIER ETA MOS FCST HI TEMPS.                           
PACIFIC HI PRES PROGGED TO BLD IN ON FRI NGT/SAT...SO EXPECT A                  
QUIET...MILD TIME WITH NOTHING BUT SOME HI CLDS...ESPECIALLY OVER               
THE SRN TIER CLOSER TO WHERE GFS SHOWS FNT STALLING OUT. GFS FCST               
SDNGS SHOW TOO MUCH MID LVL DRY AIR TO SUPPORT ITS LGT QPF JUST TO              
THE S. TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR MIN TEMPS FRI NGT WITH LGT                 
WINDS/BUBBLE HI/MID LVL DRYING...SO ADDED SOME PTCHY FOG OVER THE               
INTERIOR TO ACCOUNT FOR GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS. GOING FCST HI                
TEMPS LOOK RSNBL FOR SAT.                                                       
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE TREND FM                  
ECNTRL NAMERICA RDG TO TROF NEXT WEEK AND RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLY             
CHILLY AIR TO UPPER MI. SHRTWV THAT IS FCST TO BEGIN TRANSITION IS              
CURRENTLY IN THE GLFAK. THIS SYS FCST TO EJECT OUT OF WRN TROF ON               
SAT AND MOVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS/NW ONTARIO TO THE NW OF THE UPR LKS            
ON SUN. CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BTWN FASTER GFS/SLOWER            
ECMWF...WL TREND TOWARD MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF AND NCEP MANUAL                   
GUIDANCE. SINCE FA WL BE IN JET SURGE REGION OF THIS SHRTWV AND MSTR            
WL BE LIMITED...SUSPECT PCPN AMTS WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. PCPN TYPE              
SHOULD BE ALL RA WITH PACIFIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BEFORE LO ARRIVES AND            
ECMWF SHOWING H85 TEMP RISING TO 5C BY LATE SUN IN THE ACCOMPANYING             
LOWS WARM SECTOR. EXPECT A COLDER DAY ON MON IN THE WAKE OF THIS                
SYS...BUT LES SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SHALLOW NATURE OF COLD AIR (H85              
TEMP FCST TO FALL TO NO LOWER THAN -8C)/MORE ACYC FLOW THAT FOLLOWS             
THE LO. ANOTHER POWERFUL SHRTWV FCST TO LIFT THE ENTIRE WRN TROF OUT            
IN THE TUE/WED TIMEFRAME. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW DEEP LO MOVING NE                 
TOWARD THE GRT LKS ON TUE AND THEN INTO ONTARIO ON WED. PCPN TYPE WL            
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ATTM...BUT A MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH OVRRNG            
OF SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BEGINNING MON NGT. SOME GUIDANCE...                    
ESPECIALLY THE 00Z/06Z GFS...SHOWS SFC LO GOING FAR ENUF TO THE W               
THAT TUE WOULD BE A RAINY DAY WHILE ECMWF HINTS THAT AIRMASS WOULD              
BE COLD ENUF FOR ALL SN THRU THE DAY. 00Z CNDN MODEL/NCEP GUIDANCE              
SHOWS SFC LO TRACKING RIGHT THRU THE CNTRL U.P. AND WL USE                      
COMPROMISE SOLN AS A MODEL. THIS SOLN WOULD SUG MAINLY SN OVER THE W            
WITH A MIX ACRS THE CNTRL AND E. THEN WINDY AND COLDER ON WED WITH              
SYNOPTIC PCPN TRENDING TOWARD LES.                                              
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1029 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE                  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER                      
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND A ZONAL FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. WEAK              
SHORTWAVE RACING ALONG THE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ARE SHOWING              
UP OVER MONTANA...SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NEW               
ENGLAND STATES. A CLOSED LOW IS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG...WITH A TROUGH              
STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EAST COAST RIDGE              
IS DIVERTING THE MANITOBA LOW EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY. THE             
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL EDGE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON. FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT INTO ONTARIO THIS               
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SOUTH DAKOTA SHORTWAVE WILL RACE INTO                     
MINNESOTA. THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY...LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BELOW              
500MB...OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE            
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. TRAJECTORY PROGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS                
OVER IOWA YESTERDAY WILL ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WRF/RUC                 
MODEL CONTINUE TO KEEP A DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 550MB-450MB THROUGH             
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING WHICH SHOULD OFF               
SET SOME OF THE WARMING DUE TO ADVECTION. IR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS              
WITH CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH HEATING                
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL              
JET WILL BE MIXED TO SURFACE. THIS INCREASE WINDS WILL LIMIT HEATING            
AS WELL. GUIDANCE INDICATES WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. AT 15Z GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL. THUS THIS            
LOOKS REASONABLE. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH GUIDANCE.                              
DO NOT PLAN TO DO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
820 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...MOST RECENT GUIDANCE COMING IN A FEW DEGREES            
WARMER OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ALONG THE COAST. RAISED            
TEMPS IN THOSE AREAS AND JUST ISSUED NEW ZONE PACKAGE. DISTRIBUTION             
OF RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD BASED ON RADAR LOOP AND RUC40.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL THE TAF SITES THIS                   
EVENING. NAM-12 SOUNDINGS HAVE DEPICTED THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS                
VERY WELL AND INDICATE A LOWERING OF BASES TO LIFR AFT 06Z. I                   
DECIDED TO KEEP PREDOMINATE IFR CIGS ALL NIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO LIFR            
FOR THE 06Z TAFS. PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPING                
OFFSHORE IS PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST BUT IS FORECAST TO BE BECOME              
MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN THE KEWN-KORF TWEB LEG. I INITIALLY                     
UNDERPLAYED PCPN IN THE 00Z TAFS BECAUSE I WANTED TO GET A BETTER               
HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEVELOPING PCPN AREA. I WILL LIKELY              
UPDATE THE TAFS AFTER 03Z TO INDICATE A PREDOMINATE PCPN GROUP.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS MOVED JUST NORTH OF THE NC                
WATERS WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW. WINDS HAVE RELAXED              
TO 10-15 G20 KT. THE SFC LOW HAS REFORMED OFF THE NC COAST AND WILL             
DRIFT SLOWLY NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHEN IT SHOULD FINALLY BE              
NE OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY EVENING. EASTERLY SWELLS STILL ABOVE               
SCA CRITERIA AND WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRI. AS THE SFC LOW PULLS             
AWAY THU AFTERNOON THE FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE N AND NW AND                
INCREASE BACK TO SCA LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HSE WHERE WINDS               
MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE LATE IN THE DAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST              
IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NEED ONLY MINOR TWEAKING THIS EVENING. NO             
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WHERE SCA WILL CONTINUE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY            
     FOR AMZ130-135.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-             
     156-158.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AUSTIN                                                             
AVIATION...ELARDO                                                               
MARINE...ELARDO                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1046 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THIS               
RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z RUC AND NAM SHOW               
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN PIVOTING AROUND UNION COUNTY NC DURING THIS                  
TIME. COULD BE UP TO ANOTHER 2 INCHES OVER OUR EXTREME                          
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE ENDING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE BAND OF               
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA IS SHRINKING AS DRIER AIR WRAPS                 
AROUND THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL KEEP THE                     
ALREADY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM BECOMING EXTREME. WILL KEEP FLOOD               
WATCH AS IS EVEN THOUGH FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN                
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. DO NOT WANT TO CLEAR ANY COUNTIES WHEN A                 
HEAVY RAIN BAND IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH. HAVE ADJUSTED                
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.                                
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT THEM TO COME BACK UP              
SOME WITH MIXING. WINDS STILL UP OVER THE EAST SO WILL LEAVE LAKE               
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. TEMPS ALREADY NEAR FORECAST HIGHS OVER                 
THE WEST WHERE LITTLE RAINFALL AND EVEN SOME SUNSHINE HAVE                      
OCCURRED. EVEN WHERE RAIN IS FALLING...TEMPS ARE NEAR HIGHS. HAVE               
RAISED HIGHS IN THE WEST AND A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE EAST.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 258 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                    
THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS THIS MORNING WILL BE TO CANCEL THE                  
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN NC MTNS. SUPPLEMENTAL OBS               
INDICATE TEMPS OVER AVERY COUNTY HAVE INCREASED TO WELL ABOVE                   
FREEZING...AS STRONG WAA HAS FINALLY KICKED IN OVER THE MTNS. THERE             
MAY BE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FREEZING TEMPS...MORE THAN LIKELY IN                 
SHELTERED VALLEYS...BUT THE THREAT ISNT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP               
THE ADVISORY GOING.                                                             
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE                 
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING W/IN DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF MID/UPPER LEVEL            
LOW. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR...WITH SOME SPORADIC FLOODING...                
MAINLY IN THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO               
CHURN ITS WAY SLOWLY NORTH...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST             
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS...AND WOULDN/T BE             
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES BEFORE ALL IS SAID            
AND DONE. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR EARLIER...             
AND DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS ATTM.                               
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A BIT OF A CONCERN TODAY AS WELL...WITH STRONG               
COASTAL LOW PRODUCING ABOUT AN 8 MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA...AND A            
50 KT LOW LEVEL JET INDICATED ON VAD WIND PROFILES...AND ON THE                 
SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING FROM GSO. WE WILL EXTEND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY            
THROUGH THE DAY AND EXPAND IT TO CAPTURE A LARGER PORTION OF THE                
CWFA. EARLIER CALLS TO SOME OF THE COUNTIES INDICATED A FEW TREES               
WERE FALLING HERE AND THERE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND WET              
GROUND...SO WILL RE-ISSUE THE SPS TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.            
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO WILL              
ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE               
2ND PERIOD.                                                                     
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND RATHER WARM...AS A              
FULL LATITUDE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN                   
CONUS.                                                                          
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING PROGGED TO BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FOR                
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND MAX                  
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. THE WEATHER                   
PATTERN WILL BECOME FLATTER SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE              
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SO...SENSIBLE              
WEATHER FCST FOR THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD. INCREASING               
WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS BY NEXT TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING                   
VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM WHICH COULD BRING SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE                 
REGION BY DAY 7.                                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP WRAPPING WESTWARD ACROSS             
THE PIEDMONT AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE OCCLUDED LOW. EXPECT MVFR                 
VISIBILITY TO BE A CONCERN AT KCLT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...                
REALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VIS             
IN HEAVIER PRECIP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AT KCLT...AND THE            
LOW CEILING SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD TO UPSTATE SC AS WELL...SO BOTH                
KAND AND KGSP SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MVFR CLOUDS. THE                  
FORECAST LOOKS GRIM FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY WITHOUT MUCH                 
CHANGE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY N. THINK THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WILL             
NOT BREAK UP UNTIL THE LATE PART OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD                  
SCATTER OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082 UNTIL 6 PM                  
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ035>037-053-056-057-064>072-082-                 
     507>510 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                                              
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ003-006>009-014 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.            
  ...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ008-009-013-014 UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RWH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1015 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MSAS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE STRONG             
COASTAL LOW STRADDLING THE NC COAST BETWEEN THE ILM AND MHX CWFA/S              
WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH A WRF/RUC BLEND. THE UPR LVL LOW IS                  
CENTERED ALONG THE SC COAST BETWEEN SAVANNAH AND BEAUFORT AS                    
DEPICTED ON WV IMAGERY...WHICH THE RUC HANDLES A BIT BETTER THAN THE            
WRF SO WILL RUN WITH THE RUC FOR THE SHORT-TERM DETAILS. HAVE SEEN A            
MOD/HVY RAIN SHIELD SLOWLY SHIFT SWWD ACRS THE SC MIDLANDS AND MAKE             
INROADS TO FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...SCT SHOWERS               
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SRN SC COASTAL PLAIN. BOTH THE WRF AND RUC             
SHOW WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE SPREADING OVR MUCH OF SRN SC AND SLIGHTLY             
PAST THE SAVANNAH RIVER...BUT RUC KEEPS BEST PRECIP CLOSER TO                   
CENTRAL SC WHICH MATCHES UP BETTER TO CURRENT KCLX RADAR TRENDS SO              
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING OVR FAR NRN AND WRN                   
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WITH LIKELY POPS GOING FURTHER S. PRECIP LOOKS             
TO STEADILY THIN OUT DURG THE DAY SUCH THAT BY LATE AFTN LIKELY POPS            
SHOULD SUFFICE N AND CENTRAL WITH HIGH CHC POPS S. HAVE INCRD THE               
QPF A BIT SEEING THE HEAVY RAINS THAT THE CAE AND ILM CWFA/S HAVE               
BEEN RECEIVING FROM THE STRONG PRECIP SHIELD AND CONFINED THOSE                 
HIGHER QPF VALUES TO FAR N AND W PORTIONS OF THE CHS CWFA.                      
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY AS SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACH                 
ADVERTISED HIGHS WHILE OTHERS ARE ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES OFF. WILL                   
GENERALLY LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REACH THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S SO ONLY              
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE TEMP CURVE.                                       
WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS IMPRESSIVE AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT...SO WILL               
TWEAK DOWN WIND SPEEDS BUT STILL LOOK FOR SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH            
RANGE...POSSIBLY UP TO 20 ALONG THE COAST.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SFC LOW PRES CENTER NOW JUST OFF THE NC/SC BORDER...MOVING            
SLOWLY N. WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY            
THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 28              
KT ARE THE RULE ATTM. SEAS HAVE ALSO BEEN SUBSIDING QUITE A                     
BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEARSHORE DUE TO A MORE NLY SWELL COMPONENT             
AND SOLID OFFSHORE FETCH. PRES GRAD SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT               
THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS DUE TO                   
INCREASING CAA. CANNOT JUSTIFY THE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL THE            
WATERS WITH CURRENTLY FCST WINDS. PLAN TO DOWNGRADE THE GALES TO                
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL AREAS. THE SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS               
WILL EXTEND THROUGH 00Z MON DUE TO CONTINUED SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT               
OVER THE OUTER PORTION. THIS FLAG WILL NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A             
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AT SOME POINT WHEN THE WIND CRITERIA ARE NO LONGER             
BEING MET.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.COASTAL IMPACTS...BUOY DATA SHOWS THE SWELL COMPONENT HAS DECREASED            
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR WATERS. HEIGHTS BETWEEN 3 AND             
5 FT ARE FAIRLY COMMON...BUT THE DOMINANT SWELL DIRECTION IS MORE               
NNE NOW RATHER THAN NE OR ENE. THIS SEEMS TO BE PREVENTING MUCH OF              
THE SWELL FROM REACHING THE SC COASTLINE. CALLS TO A FEW SC COASTAL             
LOCATIONS INDICATES WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ARE 3 FEET AT THE VERY               
HIGHEST...WITH MORE PREDOMINANT 2 FOOTERS. THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE               
FLOW TODAY SHOULD NOT LEND TO ANYTHING ANY HIGHER DEVELOPING...THUS             
WILL CANCEL THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.                     
&&                                                                              
.LAKE WINDS...NORTH WINDS AROUND 16 KT WITH GUSTS TO 21 KT CONTINUE             
ON LAKE MARION. WINDS ON THE OPEN LAKE ARE PROBABLY A BIT HIGHER DUE            
TO THE SENSOR SAMPLING ONLY WINDS COMING OFF THE LAND. WEAK CAA                 
TODAY MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON.            
PLAN TO LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE AS CURRENTLY                      
ADVERTISED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIND SHEAR...LOW CIGS AND TIMING OF ANY REDUCED VSBYS IN            
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WITH THE MORNING              
SET OF TAFS. IT SEEMS THAT THE CAA HAS SHUT OFF ENOUGH...WITH EVEN              
WAA ACROSS THE CHS TERMINAL...THUS SURFACE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY                 
LIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR THRU 12Z WITH                 
STRONG 30 KT WINDS AT 2K FT. IF DAYTIME WINDS FAIL TO MATERIALIZE AS            
NOW IN THE FCST WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WIND SHEAR FCST. BY LATE              
TODAY AND TONIGHT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE COME DOWN ONCE                    
AGAIN...LEADING TO WIND SHEAR LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. WILL FCST IFR            
OR MVFR CIGS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCNL MVFR                
VSBYS IN RAIN THRU AT LEAST 18Z. PRECIP WILL LINGER AT BOTH SITES               
THRU THE DAY TODAY...THEN EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TODAY AND                   
TONIGHT. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...MAY NEED TO GO            
WITH LOWER VSBYS AT SAV THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HEAVY RAINS                     
APPROACHING FROM THE N. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED.                       
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ045 UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.                         
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352-354-374.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC/JRL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1248 PM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
RAIN SHIELD NOW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH               
A TREND TOWARDS SLOWER PROGRESSION WESTWARD. CEILINGS IN MOST                   
AREAS WITH THE RAIN HAVE FALLEN TO MVFR LEVELS AND EXPECT THESE                 
LEVELS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO              
AN END THROUGH THE EVENING AN INCREASE TO LOW END VFR IS PROBABLE.              
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE PATCHY WITH                   
CEILINGS STAYING VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS. COULD BE A NEAR SURFACE                 
ICING LAYER THAT DEVELOPS AROUND THE 900 MB LEVEL AS TEMPERATURES               
ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE WHICH AT THAT LEVEL THIS                 
MORNING WAS AROUND 0 C.                                                         
STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE                 
EVENING HOURS...SO WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT GUSTY...ANTICIPATE               
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.                                                           
BY THURSDAY MORNING...WINDS IN ALL AREAS SHOULD COME AROUND TO THE              
NORTHWEST WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1053 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
MORNING UPDATE WILL REFLECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TREND OF THE                     
PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN ASSOCIATED ON THE NORTHWEST                
SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A                    
PROGRESSION OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN NO FARTHER WEST THEN ABOUT THE              
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION WEST OF THAT               
AREA. WILL BE A VERY FINE LINE BETWEEN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN               
AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. VERY LIMITED...IF ANY...PATCHES OF RAIN                  
JUST WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. BUT SINCE I AM                 
NOT PREPARED TO HAVE A BINARY FORECAST WITH A CLEAR CUT LINE OF                 
100 PERCENT RAIN NEXT TO AN AREA WITH ZERO PERCENT RAIN...I WILL                
CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES                  
RANGING INTO THE LIKLEY AND CHANCE CATEGORIES. BUT I WILL SHIFT                 
THE CENTER OF THIS GRADIENT EASTWARD AS COMPARED TO THE EARLIER                 
POSITION. NOW THE EDGE OF THE LIKELY POPS WILL BE NEAR THE CREST                
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOLLOWING CLOSE TO                 
THE I-81 CORRIDOR.                                                              
EVEN THE NEWEST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED THE BALL BY NOT INITIALIZING               
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY                 
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. HAD WONDERING IF WHEN               
RAIN ARRIVES WE WOULD SEE A GENEROUS DROP IN TEMPERATURE TOWARDS                
THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX               
OF WINTRY PRECIP. HOWEVER...IN ANALYZING THE 12Z KFCX SOUNDING                  
THERE IS ONLY A VERY NARROW LAYER OF AIR WITH WET BULB                          
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT 0 C WITH THE REST OF THE SOUNDING HAVING                  
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WITH                  
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THIS AREA...DO NOT                 
EXPECT ANY WINTRY CONCERNS AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RAIN ONLY.               
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN TO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST               
A BIT. CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE HELPING                 
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MORE THAN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE                         
REGION...AND ALSO HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH CAROLINA                
FOOTHILLS WHERE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY MILDER THAN THE                 
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS.                                                 
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                             
AVIATION /11Z-06Z/...                                                           
RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA FOR THE TIME                      
BEING...HOWEVER LOOK FOR A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN AND A                     
LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THE DAY FROM ROA EAST. PREVAILING CONDITIONS            
SHUD REMAIN AT MVFR OR BETTER THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NE                 
WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE LLWS CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB WHERE SFC                
WINDS ARE LIGHT. AT ROA/LYH/DAN LLWS WILL BE LESS OF PROBLEM DUE                
TO STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC...BUT STILL EXPECT 40-60 KT WINDS FROM             
2K FT AND UP.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 258 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
CLOSED UPR LOW CRNTLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST STATIONARY OVER THE                 
PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL SPREADING WEST TO THE MTNS DURING THE                  
EVENING HOURS IS STARTING TO DIMINISH ON THE NORTHWEST END AS DRY               
AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST. WETBULB TEMPS               
ARE BELOW FRZG IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN FRZG              
RAIN...HOWEVER BELIEVE AT THIS POINT THAT ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO                  
LIGHT TO PUSH TEMPS DOWN THAT LOW...ESP BASED ON CRNT RADAR                     
TRENDS.                                                                         
RAINFALL RATES EARLIER IN THE EVENING WERE A LITTLE WORRISOME DOWN              
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE HOWEVER THOSE RATES HAVE LIGHTENED UP QUITE A              
BIT SINCE THEN...TO ARND 0.10 INCH PER HOUR...SO THINK FLOODING                 
THREAT WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. NE SFC WINDS ARE                    
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING                
THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT SHUD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADV                   
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA.                                                          
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES NORTH LATER TODAY AND TNGT ANOTHER SURGE OF                
RAIN WILL LIKELY WRAP ARND THE NORTH END OF THE LOW AND SPREAD                  
WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT.                  
MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PULLING THE SYSTEM OUT OF                
SW VA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWHICH MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO PRODUCE A VERY                    
TRANQUIL WEEKEND.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 1247 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                            
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL SEND                 
RAIN TO MOST AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS PERIOD. CIGS              
WILL DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE BY 08Z...WITH MVFR                      
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FURTHER EAST AT KLYH AND KDAN THROUGH                     
MIDDAY...AND EVEN LONGER AT DANVILLE. APPEARS LYH MAY BREAK OUT                 
FOR A LIMITED TIME DURING THE EARLY AFTN.                                       
FURTHER WEST INTO SE WV...THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF...AS THE SYSTEM              
WILL BE WOUND UP TIGHTLY KEEPING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP                     
SHIELD. LEWISBURG SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS PERIOD...BUT AS THE UPPER              
LOW STARTS MOVING NORTH TO THE OUTER BANKS...A LOWER MVFR CLD                   
SHIELD SHOULD MOVE INTO LWB AROUND 03Z.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 935 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
BASICALLY FOLLOWED TREND OF EARLIER UPDATE WITH HIGHER POPS AND                 
WINDS GRIDS IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWED WRF-RUC PCPN FCST WITH                   
HIGHEST QPF NEARING 1 INCH OVER THE OVER THE SE BY 18Z. 02Z                     
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED 0.48" AT CASWELL RAWS AND 0.37" AT                
DANVILLE ASOS. MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON PCPN                    
TRENDS AS RAH HAS PUSHED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO OUR SE BORDER.                    
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS AS CLOUDS/WIND WILL OFFSET ANY DYNAMIC                    
COOLING FROM ANY PCPN.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 715 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
RAISED RAIN POPS IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.               
INSERTED CHC OR SLIGHT CHC OF ZR OR IP IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED PRECIP PSBL AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY                 
BE A FACTOR AS TDS REMAIN VERY LOW. HOPEFULLY STRONG ENE FLOW WILL              
SCOUR OUT ANY TRAPPED VALLEY AIR AND ONSET OF CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET              
SHOULD LESSEN TRAPPED COLD AIR ISSUE.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 649 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...RAIN SHIELD TRYING TO              
MOVE TO THE WEST BUT RAIN ONLY REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHSIDE VA              
(23Z TUE). SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING PERIODS              
OF RAIN TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY                
THE PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTHWESTERN NC. RAIN BANDS             
COULD BECOME INTENSE WHICH IN TURN WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AS 55-65             
KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. TUE 18Z            
NAM/GFS ALSO SHOWING THIS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 70-80 KTS                   
OVERNIGHT...BUT DIFFERING ON TIMING. EITHER WAY...WINDY AND                     
TURBULENT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING.                                                                        
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM STARTING WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING. RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE                 
WESTERN EDGE COULD REMAIN OVER EASTERN CWA (DAN-LYH) INTO WEDNESDAY             
EVENING.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 245 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...                                          
CLOSE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NORTHEAST TO OFF THE                
GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IS USING THE GFS TRACK            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING BASED ON THE STRENGTH             
OF THE KICKER SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING ONTO THE COAST IN THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND LEFT EXIT             
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT             
IS STILL SHOWING STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.                   
VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAYS FROM AREA RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 50               
KNOT 850 MB WINDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN              
THE 25 TO 55 KNOT RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT                
THAT THIS GOOD MIXING AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES             
FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS. REST OF THE                
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH DECENT WARM            
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. GRIDS WILL REFLECT A NON DIURNAL                       
TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES DROPPING AFTER SUNSET BUT               
THEN RECOVERING OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD                  
COVER.                                                                          
NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY            
VALUES...BRINGING CLOUDS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY             
03Z TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY               
00Z. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS NEVER DOES BRING THE CLOUDS INTO THE                 
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND HOLDS THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                 
FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE              
OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HICKORY TO ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA              
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AT LEAST 30 DEGREES IN THE AREA WHERE THE            
RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. SO LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEED TO                
COME IN AND THERE IS STILL SOME SATURATION THAT NEEDS TO OCCUR                  
BEFORE THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.              
GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST COMPARED            
TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW AND IT BRINGS THE CHANCE INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF INCREASING THE SURFACE               
DEW POINTS AND CHANCE OF RAIN TO REFLECT THIS TREND.                            
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS               
THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL            
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. ELECTED TO TRIM BACK THE WESTERN EXTENT OF              
CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH SYSTEM. DECIDED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS                     
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH              
RAH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF               
CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIAL WEDGE WITH RAIN. FELT THAT DRIER AIR                
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CUT              
CLOUD COVER AND WENT WITH LOWER DEW POINTS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A               
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN GENERAL...WENT FASTER WITH LIFTING OF            
COASTAL LOW OUT AND SLOWER WITH FRONTAL WAVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                  
AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                           
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO LYH AND DAN JUST AFTER 00Z.               
RAIN AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP                
CEILINGS LOW OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE LOWER                  
CLOUDS WILL GET BUT PLAN TO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AND              
RAIN AT ROA...BUT NOT AT BLF AND LWB.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DS                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1053 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MORNING UPDATE WILL REFLECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TREND OF THE                     
PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN ASSOCIATED ON THE NORTHWEST                
SIDE OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A                    
PROGRESSION OF THE BULK OF THE RAIN NO FARTHER WEST THEN ABOUT THE              
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION WEST OF THAT               
AREA. WILL BE A VERY FINE LINE BETWEEN AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN               
AND THOSE THAT DO NOT. VERY LIMITED...IF ANY...PATCHES OF RAIN                  
JUST WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. BUT SINCE I AM                 
NOT PREPARED TO HAVE A BINARY FORECAST WITH A CLEAR CUT LINE OF                 
100 PERCENT RAIN NEXT TO AN AREA WITH ZERO PERCENT RAIN...I WILL                
CONTINUE WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES                  
RANGING INTO THE LIKLEY AND CHANCE CATEGORIES. BUT I WILL SHIFT                 
THE CENTER OF THIS GRADIENT EASTWARD AS COMPARED TO THE EARLIER                 
POSITION. NOW THE EDGE OF THE LIKELY POPS WILL BE NEAR THE CREST                
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOLLOWING CLOSE TO                 
THE I-81 CORRIDOR.                                                              
EVEN THE NEWEST GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED THE BALL BY NOT INITIALIZING               
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY                 
WHERE THEY ARE CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. HAD WONDERING IF WHEN               
RAIN ARRIVES WE WOULD SEE A GENEROUS DROP IN TEMPERATURE TOWARDS                
THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE AND AS SUCH HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX               
OF WINTRY PRECIP. HOWEVER...IN ANALYZING THE 12Z KFCX SOUNDING                  
THERE IS ONLY A VERY NARROW LAYER OF AIR WITH WET BULB                          
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT 0 C WITH THE REST OF THE SOUNDING HAVING                  
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WET BULB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING. THIS WITH                  
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THIS AREA...DO NOT                 
EXPECT ANY WINTRY CONCERNS AND WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION RAIN ONLY.               
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN TO WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST               
A BIT. CLOUD COVER THERE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE THIN SIDE HELPING                 
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE MORE THAN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE                         
REGION...AND ALSO HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH CAROLINA                
FOOTHILLS WHERE CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE ALREADY MILDER THAN THE                 
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 635 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                             
AVIATION /11Z-06Z/...                                                           
RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA FOR THE TIME                      
BEING...HOWEVER LOOK FOR A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN AND A                     
LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THE DAY FROM ROA EAST. PREVAILING CONDITIONS            
SHUD REMAIN AT MVFR OR BETTER THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NE                 
WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE LLWS CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB WHERE SFC                
WINDS ARE LIGHT. AT ROA/LYH/DAN LLWS WILL BE LESS OF PROBLEM DUE                
TO STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC...BUT STILL EXPECT 40-60 KT WINDS FROM             
2K FT AND UP.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 258 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
CLOSED UPR LOW CRNTLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST STATIONARY OVER THE                 
PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL SPREADING WEST TO THE MTNS DURING THE                  
EVENING HOURS IS STARTING TO DIMINISH ON THE NORTHWEST END AS DRY               
AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST. WETBULB TEMPS               
ARE BELOW FRZG IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN FRZG              
RAIN...HOWEVER BELIEVE AT THIS POINT THAT ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO                  
LIGHT TO PUSH TEMPS DOWN THAT LOW...ESP BASED ON CRNT RADAR                     
TRENDS.                                                                         
RAINFALL RATES EARLIER IN THE EVENING WERE A LITTLE WORRISOME DOWN              
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE HOWEVER THOSE RATES HAVE LIGHTENED UP QUITE A              
BIT SINCE THEN...TO ARND 0.10 INCH PER HOUR...SO THINK FLOODING                 
THREAT WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. NE SFC WINDS ARE                    
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING                
THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT SHUD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADV                   
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA.                                                          
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES NORTH LATER TODAY AND TNGT ANOTHER SURGE OF                
RAIN WILL LIKELY WRAP ARND THE NORTH END OF THE LOW AND SPREAD                  
WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT.                  
MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PULLING THE SYSTEM OUT OF                
SW VA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWHICH MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO PRODUCE A VERY                    
TRANQUIL WEEKEND.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 1247 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                            
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL SEND                 
RAIN TO MOST AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS PERIOD. CIGS              
WILL DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE BY 08Z...WITH MVFR                      
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FURTHER EAST AT KLYH AND KDAN THROUGH                     
MIDDAY...AND EVEN LONGER AT DANVILLE. APPEARS LYH MAY BREAK OUT                 
FOR A LIMITED TIME DURING THE EARLY AFTN.                                       
FURTHER WEST INTO SE WV...THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF...AS THE SYSTEM              
WILL BE WOUND UP TIGHTLY KEEPING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP                     
SHIELD. LEWISBURG SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS PERIOD...BUT AS THE UPPER              
LOW STARTS MOVING NORTH TO THE OUTER BANKS...A LOWER MVFR CLD                   
SHIELD SHOULD MOVE INTO LWB AROUND 03Z.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 935 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
BASICALLY FOLLOWED TREND OF EARLIER UPDATE WITH HIGHER POPS AND                 
WINDS GRIDS IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWED WRF-RUC PCPN FCST WITH                   
HIGHEST QPF NEARING 1 INCH OVER THE OVER THE SE BY 18Z. 02Z                     
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED 0.48" AT CASWELL RAWS AND 0.37" AT                
DANVILLE ASOS. MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON PCPN                    
TRENDS AS RAH HAS PUSHED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO OUR SE BORDER.                    
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS AS CLOUDS/WIND WILL OFFSET ANY DYNAMIC                    
COOLING FROM ANY PCPN.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 715 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
RAISED RAIN POPS IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.               
INSERTED CHC OR SLIGHT CHC OF ZR OR IP IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED PRECIP PSBL AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY                 
BE A FACTOR AS TDS REMAIN VERY LOW. HOPEFULLY STRONG ENE FLOW WILL              
SCOUR OUT ANY TRAPPED VALLEY AIR AND ONSET OF CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET              
SHOULD LESSEN TRAPPED COLD AIR ISSUE.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 649 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...RAIN SHIELD TRYING TO              
MOVE TO THE WEST BUT RAIN ONLY REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHSIDE VA              
(23Z TUE). SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING PERIODS              
OF RAIN TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY                
THE PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTHWESTERN NC. RAIN BANDS             
COULD BECOME INTENSE WHICH IN TURN WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AS 55-65             
KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. TUE 18Z            
NAM/GFS ALSO SHOWING THIS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 70-80 KTS                   
OVERNIGHT...BUT DIFFERING ON TIMING. EITHER WAY...WINDY AND                     
TURBULENT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING.                                                                        
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM STARTING WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING. RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE                 
WESTERN EDGE COULD REMAIN OVER EASTERN CWA (DAN-LYH) INTO WEDNESDAY             
EVENING.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 245 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...                                          
CLOSE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NORTHEAST TO OFF THE                
GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IS USING THE GFS TRACK            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING BASED ON THE STRENGTH             
OF THE KICKER SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING ONTO THE COAST IN THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND LEFT EXIT             
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT             
IS STILL SHOWING STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.                   
VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAYS FROM AREA RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 50               
KNOT 850 MB WINDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN              
THE 25 TO 55 KNOT RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT                
THAT THIS GOOD MIXING AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES             
FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS. REST OF THE                
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH DECENT WARM            
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. GRIDS WILL REFLECT A NON DIURNAL                       
TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES DROPPING AFTER SUNSET BUT               
THEN RECOVERING OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD                  
COVER.                                                                          
NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY            
VALUES...BRINGING CLOUDS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY             
03Z TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY               
00Z. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS NEVER DOES BRING THE CLOUDS INTO THE                 
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND HOLDS THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                 
FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE              
OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HICKORY TO ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA              
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AT LEAST 30 DEGREES IN THE AREA WHERE THE            
RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. SO LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEED TO                
COME IN AND THERE IS STILL SOME SATURATION THAT NEEDS TO OCCUR                  
BEFORE THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.              
GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST COMPARED            
TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW AND IT BRINGS THE CHANCE INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF INCREASING THE SURFACE               
DEW POINTS AND CHANCE OF RAIN TO REFLECT THIS TREND.                            
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS               
THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL            
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. ELECTED TO TRIM BACK THE WESTERN EXTENT OF              
CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH SYSTEM. DECIDED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS                     
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH              
RAH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF               
CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIAL WEDGE WITH RAIN. FELT THAT DRIER AIR                
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CUT              
CLOUD COVER AND WENT WITH LOWER DEW POINTS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A               
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN GENERAL...WENT FASTER WITH LIFTING OF            
COASTAL LOW OUT AND SLOWER WITH FRONTAL WAVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                  
AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                           
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO LYH AND DAN JUST AFTER 00Z.               
RAIN AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP                
CEILINGS LOW OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE LOWER                  
CLOUDS WILL GET BUT PLAN TO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AND              
RAIN AT ROA...BUT NOT AT BLF AND LWB.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DS                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
635 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /11Z-06Z/...                                                          
RAIN HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA FOR THE TIME                      
BEING...HOWEVER LOOK FOR A RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAIN AND A                     
LOWERING OF CIGS DURING THE DAY FROM ROA EAST. PREVAILING CONDITIONS            
SHUD REMAIN AT MVFR OR BETTER THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG NE                 
WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE LLWS CONDITIONS AT BLF AND LWB WHERE SFC                
WINDS ARE LIGHT. AT ROA/LYH/DAN LLWS WILL BE LESS OF PROBLEM DUE                
TO STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC...BUT STILL EXPECT 40-60 KT WINDS FROM             
2K FT AND UP.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 258 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
CLOSED UPR LOW CRNTLY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST STATIONARY OVER THE                 
PAST FEW HOURS. RAINFALL SPREADING WEST TO THE MTNS DURING THE                  
EVENING HOURS IS STARTING TO DIMINISH ON THE NORTHWEST END AS DRY               
AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST. WETBULB TEMPS               
ARE BELOW FRZG IN THE WEST THIS MORNING WHICH COULD RESULT IN FRZG              
RAIN...HOWEVER BELIEVE AT THIS POINT THAT ANY PCPN WILL BE TOO                  
LIGHT TO PUSH TEMPS DOWN THAT LOW...ESP BASED ON CRNT RADAR                     
TRENDS.                                                                         
RAINFALL RATES EARLIER IN THE EVENING WERE A LITTLE WORRISOME DOWN              
ALONG THE NC/VA LINE HOWEVER THOSE RATES HAVE LIGHTENED UP QUITE A              
BIT SINCE THEN...TO ARND 0.10 INCH PER HOUR...SO THINK FLOODING                 
THREAT WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. NE SFC WINDS ARE                    
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. THIS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING                
THE DAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BUT SHUD REMAIN WELL BELOW ADV                   
CRITERIA FOR OUR AREA.                                                          
AS THE UPR LOW MOVES NORTH LATER TODAY AND TNGT ANOTHER SURGE OF                
RAIN WILL LIKELY WRAP ARND THE NORTH END OF THE LOW AND SPREAD                  
WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT.                  
MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN PULLING THE SYSTEM OUT OF                
SW VA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERWHICH MILD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES                
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO PRODUCE A VERY                    
TRANQUIL WEEKEND.                                                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 1247 AM EST WED NOV 22 2006/                                            
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL SEND                 
RAIN TO MOST AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS PERIOD. CIGS              
WILL DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE BY 08Z...WITH MVFR                      
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FURTHER EAST AT KLYH AND KDAN THROUGH                     
MIDDAY...AND EVEN LONGER AT DANVILLE. APPEARS LYH MAY BREAK OUT                 
FOR A LIMITED TIME DURING THE EARLY AFTN.                                       
FURTHER WEST INTO SE WV...THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF...AS THE SYSTEM              
WILL BE WOUND UP TIGHTLY KEEPING A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP                     
SHIELD. LEWISBURG SHOULD REMAIN VFR THIS PERIOD...BUT AS THE UPPER              
LOW STARTS MOVING NORTH TO THE OUTER BANKS...A LOWER MVFR CLD                   
SHIELD SHOULD MOVE INTO LWB AROUND 03Z.                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 935 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
BASICALLY FOLLOWED TREND OF EARLIER UPDATE WITH HIGHER POPS AND                 
WINDS GRIDS IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWED WRF-RUC PCPN FCST WITH                   
HIGHEST QPF NEARING 1 INCH OVER THE OVER THE SE BY 18Z. 02Z                     
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE REACHED 0.48" AT CASWELL RAWS AND 0.37" AT                
DANVILLE ASOS. MID SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON PCPN                    
TRENDS AS RAH HAS PUSHED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO OUR SE BORDER.                    
RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS AS CLOUDS/WIND WILL OFFSET ANY DYNAMIC                    
COOLING FROM ANY PCPN.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 715 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
RAISED RAIN POPS IN THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.               
INSERTED CHC OR SLIGHT CHC OF ZR OR IP IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AS                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED PRECIP PSBL AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY                 
BE A FACTOR AS TDS REMAIN VERY LOW. HOPEFULLY STRONG ENE FLOW WILL              
SCOUR OUT ANY TRAPPED VALLEY AIR AND ONSET OF CLOUDS AROUND SUNSET              
SHOULD LESSEN TRAPPED COLD AIR ISSUE.                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 649 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...                                                           
CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SE COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH              
THE PERIOD. WITH ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE...RAIN SHIELD TRYING TO              
MOVE TO THE WEST BUT RAIN ONLY REACHING THE GROUND IN SOUTHSIDE VA              
(23Z TUE). SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW WILL BRING PERIODS              
OF RAIN TO AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY                
THE PIEDMONT REGION OF SOUTHSIDE VA AND NORTHWESTERN NC. RAIN BANDS             
COULD BECOME INTENSE WHICH IN TURN WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES AS 55-65             
KT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM. TUE 18Z            
NAM/GFS ALSO SHOWING THIS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 70-80 KTS                   
OVERNIGHT...BUT DIFFERING ON TIMING. EITHER WAY...WINDY AND                     
TURBULENT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING.                                                                        
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM STARTING WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING. RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE                 
AFTERNOON. BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE                 
WESTERN EDGE COULD REMAIN OVER EASTERN CWA (DAN-LYH) INTO WEDNESDAY             
EVENING.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 245 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY/...                                          
CLOSE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES NORTHEAST TO OFF THE                
GEORGIA COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS IS USING THE GFS TRACK            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING BASED ON THE STRENGTH             
OF THE KICKER SHORT WAVE THAT IS COMING ONTO THE COAST IN THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST JET SUPPORT AND LEFT EXIT             
REGION OF THE 300 MB JET JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT             
IS STILL SHOWING STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY.                   
VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAYS FROM AREA RADARS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 50               
KNOT 850 MB WINDS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN              
THE 25 TO 55 KNOT RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00-12Z WEDNESDAY. EXPECT                
THAT THIS GOOD MIXING AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES             
FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS. REST OF THE                
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH DECENT WARM            
AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB. GRIDS WILL REFLECT A NON DIURNAL                       
TEMPERATURE TREND TONIGHT...WITH VALUES DROPPING AFTER SUNSET BUT               
THEN RECOVERING OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND CLOUD                  
COVER.                                                                          
NAM WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FASTER WITH THE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY            
VALUES...BRINGING CLOUDS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE GREENBRIER VALLEY BY             
03Z TONIGHT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY               
00Z. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS NEVER DOES BRING THE CLOUDS INTO THE                 
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND HOLDS THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND                 
FORCING TO THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH 12Z                     
WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THE NORTHERN EDGE              
OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM HICKORY TO ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA              
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF AT LEAST 30 DEGREES IN THE AREA WHERE THE            
RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. SO LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS NEED TO                
COME IN AND THERE IS STILL SOME SATURATION THAT NEEDS TO OCCUR                  
BEFORE THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.              
GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST COMPARED            
TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW AND IT BRINGS THE CHANCE INTO THE             
SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. WILL SLOW DOWN TIMING OF INCREASING THE SURFACE               
DEW POINTS AND CHANCE OF RAIN TO REFLECT THIS TREND.                            
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS               
THE LOW CENTER LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL            
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST. ELECTED TO TRIM BACK THE WESTERN EXTENT OF              
CLOUDS AND RAIN WITH SYSTEM. DECIDED TO MENTION LIKELY POPS                     
WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FA WHICH MATCHES UP NICELY WITH              
RAH. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE TRICKY BECAUSE OF               
CLOUD COVER...AND POTENTIAL WEDGE WITH RAIN. FELT THAT DRIER AIR                
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CUT              
CLOUD COVER AND WENT WITH LOWER DEW POINTS TEMPERATURES THURSDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A               
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. IN GENERAL...WENT FASTER WITH LIFTING OF            
COASTAL LOW OUT AND SLOWER WITH FRONTAL WAVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.                  
AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...                                                           
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INTO LYH AND DAN JUST AFTER 00Z.               
RAIN AND THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP                
CEILINGS LOW OVERNIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE LOWER                  
CLOUDS WILL GET BUT PLAN TO HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS AND              
RAIN AT ROA...BUT NOT AT BLF AND LWB.                                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...JS                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
344 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DRY/WARM WEATHER FOR LATE NOV WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF              
DAYS...PROVIDING NO PROBLEMS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL ACROSS UPPER MI.                
PCPN CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OR NONEXISTENT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE             
WEEKEND...SO TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN FCST ISSUE.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW TROFFING ALONG THE W COAST            
OF NAMERICA WITH PERSISTENT WSW FLOW/RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL                   
HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS INTO SE CANADA. A POTENT              
LOOKING SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING ENE THRU NRN ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY.               
PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE PASSED WELL N OF UPPER MI AS AIRMASS             
HAS REMAINED TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EVEN CLOUDS HERE...EVEN ALONG                   
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH IS APPROACHING WRN UPPER MI. DRY AIRMASS            
IS SHOWN NICELY BY THE 00Z KINL/KGRB SOUNDINGS. SHORTWAVE HAS                   
TRACKED ALONG SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE                  
SFC...TEMPS REVEAL BITTER LATE FALL ARCTIC AIR SPREADING S ACROSS               
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA BEHIND SHORTWAVE. READINGS AS OF 08Z WERE             
AS LOW AS -33F IN NRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TEENS AND 20S BELOW COMMON.             
AS CLOSE AS THE N END OF LAKE WINNIPEG...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND            
0F. THIS BUILDING ARCTIC AIR NOT TOO FAR TO THE NW IN CANADA LOOKS              
LIKE IT WILL PLUNGE FIRMLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE LAST HALF            
OF NEXT WEEK. WELL TO THE W...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS PUSHING             
ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE.                          
ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT ENE WELL TO THE N OF UPPER                 
MI...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE PASSING S OF              
THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING AS NICE AREA OF PRES RISES (CURRENTLY                
UPWARDS OF 8MB/3HR TO THE NW IN ONTARIO) ASSIST FRONTAL MOVEMENT.               
DURING THE DAY...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO NRN ONTARIO WILL ENSURE            
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NE TO E SFC WIND. THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN              
IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH EARLY FROPA ACROSS THE N...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD              
BE HELD TO THE MID/UPPER 40S PER GOING FCST WITH EXPECTATION OF                 
LITTLE TEMP RISE ONCE WINDS SHIFT OFF THE LAKE. ACROSS THE S AND                
ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR SW...MIXING TO 925MB ON NAM/GFS FCST                    
SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX TEMPS IN THE MID OR EVEN UPPER 50S. MIXING                 
HEIGHT IS CRITICAL THOUGH AND SHALLOW COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA             
MAY LIMIT MIXING. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED GOING FCST OF HIGHS MAINLY IN            
THE LWR 50S THERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN CI               
CLOUDS TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH TO THE NE IN ONTARIO THIS AFTN AND PRES             
FALLS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL            
BE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...NE WINDS WILL RAMP UP INTO THE               
15-25KT RANGE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.              
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT ENE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/SRN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IN             
RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL                
SHIFT E TO THE UPPER LAKES BY 12Z FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN                      
MDT/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS VIEWED ON THE 300K SFC (AROUND                  
700MB) WITH WINDS OF 40-50KT DIRECTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO                   
ISOBARS. HOWEVER...DUE TO LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW...LOWEST                 
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS REMAIN N OF UPPER MI AND WOULD THUS                  
EXPECT PCPN TO ALSO OCCUR N OF HERE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED...THIS DRY            
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS WHICH MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY             
DRY PROFILES TO SUGGEST LITTLE OR NO THREAT OF PCPN. WILL PROBABLY              
SEE AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N.                 
INCREASING WINDS WILL LIMIT TEMP FALL TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS               
THE W AND N. GOING FCST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH MINS IN THE                  
MID/UPPER 30S THERE. THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO COOL THIS                  
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL AND E BEFORE WINDS INCREASE WHICH              
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO THE LWR 30S.                                      
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THRU NRN ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY FRI WITH                  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS FCST AREA. GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD            
AGREEMENT TIMING FRONT TO THE WRN U.P. LATE MORNING AND EXITING THE             
E LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSING               
ACROSS ONTARIO AND MUCH WEAKER FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT                   
CROSSES UPPER MI...FROPA SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS FCST AREA (HAVE KEPT              
SLIGHT CHC POPS THOUGH ACROSS WRN/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR CLOSER TO BETTER            
FORCING). A BAND OF STRATOCU WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY FRONT WITH                   
NAM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A RIBBON OF HIGH RH AT AND BLO 850MB. GOING                
FCST TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S LOOK FINE.                                      
WEAK PACIFIC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION               
FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT...ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEP DRY AIRMASS. SO                 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE ACCORDINGLY DROPPED MINS BLO              
GUIDANCE FRI NIGHT DUE TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                  
SHOULD SEE TEMPS DIP TO 20F IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS.                          
GFS/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW A WEAK TROF SLIPPING E INTO WRN UPPER MI            
SAT AFTN. A VERY DRY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY                 
PCPN. SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTN AS WAA            
PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM TO THE SW.                                   
FCST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN SUN AS SW FLOW/WAA AND WEAK                   
SHORTWAVE CONSPIRE TO BRING A POTENTIAL PCPN EPISODE. HOWEVER...                
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WAA REGIME AND                
POSSIBLE WEAK SFC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN SOME PCPN WHICH WILL LIKELY              
BE RAIN BASED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS AND ECMWF 850MB TEMPS. BUMPED UP            
POPS INTO THE LOW CHC CATEGORY FOR SUN...BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY NEED            
TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IN LATER FCSTS.                                         
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LES/FLURRIES BEHIND SYSTEM SUN NIGHT/MON                
MORNING OVER THE W BASED ON 00Z ECWMF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL              
DRY OUT SUN NIGHT/MON AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE NOSES INTO THE UPPER               
LAKES. STRONG INDICATIONS PERSIST FROM ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS              
THAT A LONGWAVE TROF WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK WITH            
A POTENTIALLY STRONG SFC LOW AND SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT OCCURRING               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT            
MODEL RUNS SUGGEST PCPN SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA              
FOR THE MAIN EVENT...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY BEING             
SO FAR OUT IN THE FCST CYCLE AND WILL LEAVE GOING FCST AS IS WITH               
RAIN/SNOW. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THE BITTER             
ARCTIC AIR BUILDING IN CANADA TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE LAST               
HALF OF THE WEEK...SENDING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL NO               
DOUBT BE SIGNIFICANT LES AS THIS OCCURS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
923 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE                    
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTUIRE ALONG THE NEW BRUBSWICK BORDER WILL                  
RESULT IN A FEW AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING.  LOW PRESSURE               
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF NEW                   
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO COASTAL AND                    
DOWNEAST AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
HAVE DONE A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO ADD AREAS OF             
FREEZING FOG FROME HOULTON TO CARIBOU TO VAN BUREN. VIS SATL SHOWS              
THIS AREA NICELY AND IT EXTENDS WELL EAST INTO NB. EXPECT THIS                  
AREA TO SLOWLY ERODE MIDDAY AS LONG AS CIRRUS ALOFT STAYS THIN                  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SUN THROUGH. OTHER CHANGES INCLUDE REMOVING POPS                
FOR ZONES 15 & 16. NAM WRF WHICH IS THE MOST AGGRESIVE MODEL WITH               
PRECIP CONFINES QPF TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHILE GFS KEEP ALL QPF               
EAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ZONES 29 &                 
30.                                                                             
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MARINE FORECAST TO INCORPERATE              
LATEST RUC WINDS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 239 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006/                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE                    
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO               
THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS LOW MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO                
COASTAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                            
MAIN MAP FEATURES ARE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW                     
BRUNSWICK AND NORTHERN NOVA SCOTIA MOVING TO THE EAST AND STRONG                
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS                
SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE IN LINE WITH NAM LAST 24 HOURS IN BRING THE             
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO COAST. SO WILL USE BLEND OF BOTH                  
MODELS UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT BOTH WILL CONTINUE TO TREND                    
TOWARDS A COMMON SOLUTION. HAVE CREATED THE TEMPERATURE...DEW                   
POINT AND WIND GRIDS WITH A MAV/MET COMBINATION. FOR TEMPERATURES               
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL USE THE NAM12. IN THE               
SKY GRIDS WILL MANUALLY DRAW INITIAL GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT                       
OBSERVATIONS THEN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE NUMBERS FROM SOUTHEAST                
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. FOR THE POP GRIDS HAVE                         
INITIALIZED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A MAV/MET COMBINATION AND THEN              
FINALIZED WITH SOME SMOOTHING THEN HAVE BLENDED IN WITH PREVIOUS                
FORECAST POPS GOING INTO FRIDAY. QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED                
WITH A 50/50 NAM/GFS THEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER FIT POP GRIDS.                     
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                   
HGH PRES TO START THE LONG TERM W/ DRY CONDS AND MILD TEMPS FOR                 
THIS TIME OF YEAR... MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS HGH PRES RDG GRADUALLY               
SAGGING S AND E OF THE FA BY STA NGT W/ WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO              
CROSS THE FA ON SUN. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT                 
GRIDS FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT W/ REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM UNCHANGED.             
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES THO SOME MVFR CONDS PSBL SRN SITES LTR                  
THIS AFTN...                                                                    
MARINE...                                                                       
THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM DURING THE                 
LAST 24 HOURS. STRATEGY WILL BE TO CREATE A BLEND OF BOTH MODEL                 
UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT BOTH WILL CONTINUE TOWARD A COMMON                    
SOLUTION...SO WILL CREATE WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE                  
NAM12 AND THE GFS. FOR WAVES EXPECT FETCH ORIENTATION TONIGHT TO                
TREND MORE TOWARDS AN EAST/WEST AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF                 
MAINE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SPECTRAL DATA FOR CAR01 WITH A                  
SOUTHEAST SWELL GROUP. WHILE THIS SWELL GROUP LOOKS REASONABLE THE              
WIND WAVE GROUP FOR FRIDAY APPEARS A LITTLE HIGH GIVE THE                       
FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS SO WILL ADJUST COMBINED SEA FOR FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON DOWN 1 FOOT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SEAS 3 FT AT                
44027 AND 4 FT 44034 SO WILL START SCA AT 12Z.                                  
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...LULOFS                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE AVIATION                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
750 AM MST THU NOV 23 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH               
NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. COOL WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL            
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MUCH STRONGER AND COLDER SYSTEM LOOKS            
ON TAP FOR MONDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS THE GULF            
OF AK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH               
BASE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE CURRENTLY PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN            
GREAT BASIN. IT APPEARS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS FRACTURED...WITH              
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE RACING EAST ACROSS EASTERN NV PER LATEST RUC              
ANALYSIS...WHILE SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH LIKELY SLOWED AS IT                   
CROSSED THE NORTHERN SIERRAS/CASCADES...CONTINUES TO LAG FURTHER                
WEST ACROSS WESTERN ID INTO NORTHWEST NV. THIS FEATURE ALSO                     
COINCIDES WITH LEADING EDGE OF REGION OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL                    
ASCENT...AND IS RESULTING IN BROKEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS                
NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHWEST ID.                                                   
AS 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST DESERT IT SHOULD              
PHASE WITH SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE...EFFECTIVELY                      
DEVELOPING NEW SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE/COLD FRONT. THIS FEATURE                 
STILL LOOKS TO CROSS WASATCH FRONT TOWARD SUNRISE...AND MAY BE                  
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK BAND OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH              
OF INTERSTATE 80.                                                               
REGION OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PVA PROGGED TO SPREAD                
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF            
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ID/NORTHERN NV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGION OF              
LIFT TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EAST...HOWEVER SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER              
TO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO FAR NORTHERN UT. PRECIPITATION MAY                 
INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN ACROSS VALLEY FLOORS OF FAR NORTHERN UT BUT             
SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PROGGED TO              
RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN UT BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EFFECTIVELY              
ENDING PRECIPITATION EXCEPT PERHAPS A FEW SHALLOW SNOW SHOWERS                  
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                                                      
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY ZONAL                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE                    
FEATURES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF MID AND               
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED             
SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING               
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVERTOP OF SHALLOW COLD               
DOME WILL RESULT IN VALLEY INVERSIONS SETTING UP ACROSS MOST                    
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE                     
INVERSIONS MAY BE MIXED OUT SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.                 
MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALONG WITH GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOW DEVELOPING            
A VERY DEEP AND COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY               
NEXT WEEK...WITH A POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP FOR THE            
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY                 
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW                 
QUICKLY DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. VERY COLD AIRMASS PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE              
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH 700MB TEMPS PROGGED                 
BELOW -20C BY TUESDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY                
TOWARD MIDWEEK AS SOME MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING TROUGH               
OUT OF THE REGION WHILE OTHERS /GFS/ KEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH PARKED                
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS             
REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND RETAINED CHANCE POPS                   
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE WASATCH FRONT.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WENDOVER JUST BEFORE 14Z                   
THEREFORE HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT AT SLC TO 1730Z               
BASED ON THE TYPICAL 4 HR TRAVEL TIME FROM WENDOVER. PRECIP IS                  
LAGGING ABOUT 2 HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND IS ONLY A NARROW                
BAND WHICH WILL LAST LESS THAN TWO HOURS. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT                 
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF                                                               
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE                       
VISIT...HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1103 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
ONLY MINOR UPDATE TO THIS MORNING/S FCST TO REFLECT LATEST SAT/RADAR            
TRENDS...AND TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. SFC LOW EAST OF THE VA                
CAPES CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE OUTER 40/-70 BENCHMARK            
THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST 3 HRLY PRESSURE FALLS. ASSOC PCPN                  
SHIELD CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD...THOUGH             
IS DISSIPATING AS IT RUNS INTO MUCH DRIER AIR AND STRONG                        
SUBSIDENCE ASSOC W/SEMI-STATIONARY SFC TO MID LVL RIDGE AXIS                    
ORIENTED ACROSS THE SLV. THUS HAVE EASED POPS BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS              
SRN TWO COUNTIES TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND OFFERED DRY CONDS                 
FURTHER NORTH. LATEST LAPS/ACARS/RUC SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO              
SHOW STRONG SYNOPTIC INVERSION ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING...WITH                  
FAIRLY LOW AFTERNOON PBL MIXING HEIGHTS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO             
VERY UNIFORM TEMP RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE                        
CENTRAL/NORTH TODAY UNDER FULL TO PARTIAL SUN...WITH EVEN HIGHER                
SUMMIT LOCALES REACHING SIMILAR VALUES. OTW INHERITED FCST IN                   
EXCELLENT SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED. ENJOY THE DAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM EST THU NOV 23 2006/                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
THE WOBBLES AND HICCUPS (TRACK AND TIMING) EXPERIENCED BY THE MDLS              
SOME 24-48 HRS AGO HAVE GONE AWAY AS MDLS HV BCM MORE CONSISTENT DRG            
THE PAST 24 HRS WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK OF ATLANTIC COASTAL SMLR TO              
THAT OF 2-4 DAYS AGO...ARD 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND THE TIMING HAS                 
OBVIOUSLY BEEN SPED UP FM FRI-FRI NGT TO TDY.                                   
CRNTLY...SFC LOW OFFSHORE OF NC AND SLOWLY MVG NNE WITH RAINBANDS               
ALRDY ACRS SNE SHORELINE AND LIKE THE NAM SOLN/PARAMETERS BRINGING              
PCPN TO VT/MA BDR ARD 12Z AND PERHAPS REACHING SRN RUTLAND/WINDSOR              
BTWN 12-18Z BFR EXITING E. THIS SOLN IS VRY SMLR TO YDY THINKING                
AND THUS NO REAL CHGS TO FCST.                                                  
BASICALLY...FOR US NOT ANY MJR PRBLMS AND MAY TOTALLY ESCAPE ANY                
PCPN BUT POINTS S WL BE WET AND PSBLY INITIALLY SOME FZRA AS WELL.              
WE/VE HIGHLIGHTED THESE CHANGES AND PSBLTYS WITH A SPSBTV ON                    
MIDSHFT AND DAYSHFT YDY FOR TRAVELERS INTO SRN VT AND POINTS S AND              
FEEL WE/RE AHD OF THE GAME.                                                     
THEREAFTER...SW-NE ELONGATED RDG FM THE GULF COAST BUILDS INTO ERN              
GRT LAKES AND NE FRI/SAT WITH SFC HIGH ACRS FA AS WELL. ULVL RDG                
AXIS AND SFC HIGH SHIFT SLIGHTLY SE ACRS MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE               
SAT.                                                                            
MDL T FCSTS HAVE HAD HUGE RANGES (BTWN MDLS UP TO 15F) AT SOME MTN              
VLY LOCALES FOR MINS AND MAXES FOR SVRL DAYS AND HAVE DONE WELL SO              
FAR STAYING AWAY FM EXTREME LOWS. TDY...MAX T AT KBTV ON ETA MOS IS             
56F VS. 42F ON GFS MOS. YES...SOME CLD DFRNCS BUT 925MB TMPS ARE                
SMLR ABT 1-2C MILDER THAN WED AND WL BASE TDYS MAX ON THAT AS WELL              
AS CLDS/PCPN.                                                                   
ON FRI...DECENT N FLOW AND CAA WITH DEPARTING COASTAL WITH COLDER               
TMPS LKLY IN NRN CHMPL VLY AND NE VT WITH MILDER IN DOWNSLOPE                   
REGIONS.                                                                        
MDLS CONSISTENT WITH A NICE LATE AUTUMN DAY ON SAT WITH TMPS ARD 50F.           
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
ULVL RDG AND SFC HIGH ELONGATED SW-NE FM GULF TO MID-ATLANTIC WITH              
WEAK IMPULSES RIDING ALG NRN PERIPERHY WITH A WEAK BNDRY ACRS GRT               
LAKES. THE MDLS DIFFERENT SLGTLY ON WHETHER ANY S/W IN RELATIVELY               
FLAT-ZONAL NRN STREAM HELPS DROP BNDRY INTO FA. ATTM...IT LOOKS LIKE            
NRN FA IS THREATENED BY A FEW MORE CLDS AWAITING TWO DISTURBANCES.              
THE FIRST BEING A NRN STREAM S/W THAT STAYS WELL N OF FA WITH THE               
ABV MNTD BNDRY WASHING OUT. THE SECOND IS THE OUTCOME OF STG...COLD             
CLOSED LOW IN PAC NW THAT WL BRG FIRST ARCTIC SURGE ACRS PAC NW/NRN             
ROCKIES THEN ROTATE ENE ACRS CANADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED/TRAILING CD              
FNT MVG TOWARD FA FOR MID-WK. IN ADDITION...S/W ENERGY DROPPING ACRS            
ROCKIES CUD DVLP LEE-SIDE LOW THAT WUD TRAVEL ALG THIS BNDRY TOWARD             
GRT LAKES FOR MID WK. ATTM...CRNT FCST HAS MNTN OF PCPN FOR TUES                
NGT/WED SO NO UPDATES IN LONGER TERM NEEDED.                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL SITES WITH MAINLY A SCT-BKN MID DECK                   
AROUND 120-150. SOME LOW CLD AFT 15Z-16Z FOR KBTV/KMPV DUE TO                   
VICINITY OF LOW MVG UP COAST W/ KMPV GOING BKN035 FOR A FEW                     
HRS...BUT NO PRECIP. AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR AFT 00Z W/ P6SM                      
SKC...KMPV WILL SEE SKC CLOSER TO 02Z-03Z. WINDS N/NE LESS THAN 10              
KTS...W/ LGT/VAR AT TIMES BFR 12Z AND AFT 00Z FRI. HIR TRRN WILL BE             
OBSCD CLOSER TO KMPV.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JMG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CST THU NOV 23 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LIKE YESTERDAY...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND ONLY MINOR               
UPDATE TO THE GRIDS. IDEAL WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL AGAIN ON THIS             
THANKSGIVING DAY FOR TRAVELERS. SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A FEW THIN                
CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING BY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S              
WITH SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.                                                   
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK            
CANADA AND RIDGING SW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MS VALLEYS...ABOUT              
THE SAME POSITION AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. ALOFT A 587 DM 500 MB HIGH            
WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING NORTH INTO IL.                  
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR IL CONTINUING SUNNY SKIES ACROSS             
IL THIS MORNING. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH                 
MILDER READINGS FROM LINCOLN SW. DRY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S WITH            
SSE WINDS 3 TO 10 MPH.                                                          
RUC AND NAM/WRF SHOWS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING              
TOWARD THE EASTERN STATES FRI AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL ILLINOIS             
WEATHER WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING            
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND MILDER TEMPS. MIXING UP TO 950 MB GIVES HIGHS             
IN THE UPPER 50S EAST AND LOWER 60S WEST TODAY WITH ILX AT 60F.                 
NORMAL HIGHS ARE 45 TO 50F.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
A RATHER WARM TURKEY DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WARM TREND             
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EVEN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT                
APPROACHES FRIDAY AND STALLS OUT OVER NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  THIS              
FRONT WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK             
AS A PATTERN SHIFT GETS UNDERWAY... CULMINATING WITH A RATHER STRONG            
STORM SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD USHER IN A SHOT OF COLDER AIR.             
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
HAPPY THANKSGIVING.  IT WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY ACROSS            
THE CWA TODAY.  STILL DEALING WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT WHICH               
WILL LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS... BUT             
EVEN SO WE SHOULD GAIN ANOTHER 2-3 DEGREES ON YESTERDAYS HIGHS.                 
EXPECT WE WILL CRACK THE 60 DEGREE MARK SOMEWHERE SOUTHWEST OF A                
HAVANA-LINCOLN-DECATUR LINE.                                                    
CUTOFF LOW OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS FOR CAPE COD             
AND EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT HEADS INTO THE MARITIMES.  BEHIND IT...            
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ALONG               
THE EASTERN SEABOARD... WHILE BROAD TROUGHING SETS UP ACROSS THE                
NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.                                            
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND STALL OUT JUST TO OUR              
NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON... STILL NO PRECIP EXPECTED WITH DRY                 
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.  WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT... WE WILL REMAIN             
ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                    
HOWEVER... A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA               
BEGINNING SATURDAY.  MEANWHILE... RETURN FLOW FROM AN OPEN GULF WILL            
BRING BACK THE MOISTURE.  GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING                 
SCATTERED QPF ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT SATURDAY... BUT STILL                 
THINK THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AT THAT POINT.  SHOULD SEE                 
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE              
FRONT AS MOISTURE SLOWLY ARRIVES.                                               
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY NIGHT... AIDED BOTH BY            
RICHER MOISTURE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL             
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM.  PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT NORTH            
AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.                                                 
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET UP BY               
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  AS WEST COAST TROUGH SHIFTS EAST... STRONG LEE                
CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE PLAINS... AND INCREASING LOW              
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THE            
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH... BUT AT THE SAME TIME RESULT IN INCREASING              
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                 
AS THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT... A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED            
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TO OUR NORTH... BRINGING PLENTY OF                
COLD AIR BEHIND IT.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT... AND STILL                
PREFER THE WEDNESDAY FROPA SOLUTION... DESPITE THE 00Z ECMWF                    
SPEEDING UP A LITTLE BIT.  HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH STRONG                 
RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST COAST PROMOTES SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE                   
OVERALL PATTERN.  MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST OF US            
WILL THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE TROUGH AND THE ATTENDANT SFC               
LOW GO.  A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SUGGESTS GREATER QPF AMOUNTS...                  
BETTER CONVECTIVE AND POSS SVR POTENTIAL.  A FARTHER NORTH TRACK                
WOULD DECREASE OVERALL SHEAR.  WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT... PRECIP               
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT BET... SO INCREASED POPS ON DAY 7 PERHAPS A                 
LITTLE HIGHER THAN USUAL CONSIDERING THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL                     
CONFIDENCE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HARDIMAN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
235 PM CST THU NOV 23 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM                 
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPERATURES INITIALLY...THEN CHANCE FOR                
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                                         
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING                  
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED                 
ABOUT 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS. BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL WILL               
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. FOR US...THE WAVE WILL PICK              
UP A LEE TROUGH AND DRIVE THAT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.                 
THUS...TODAY SHOULD BE THE LAST REALLY WARM DAY...BUT STILL                     
SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 50S.                                            
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WE WILL STILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES              
AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. FEEL THAT SOME                
PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN THAT                 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST               
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ONCE THE FRONT ARRIVES THOUGH...THE                
FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY...THUS TRIED TO TIME THE FOG IN THE                
GRIDS BASED ON FROPA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW BAND               
OF STRATUS DEVELOP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN TANDEM WITH THE                  
FOG...AND WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY DENSE                 
FOG ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BASED ON                
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM/RUC VISIBILITY FORECASTS. CLEAR SKIES AND              
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THOUGH.                        
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SETS UP ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI ON                  
FRIDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT COOLER...AGAIN WITH A VEIL OF                  
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR                     
PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE SHOULD POOL ALONG               
THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM                
FRONT. COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT               
BY EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA...           
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH                 
THE DAY SATURDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS                
REGION...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO IOWA BY SATURDAY EVENING.                       
THE FRONT APPEARS TO LIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER SATURDAY               
NIGHT WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.               
FEEL THAT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH IFR CONDITIONS...                
ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THUS...AM EXPECTING SOME                    
PATCHY DRIZZLE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE                 
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME LOOKS PRETTY SLIM. FEEL                
THE NAM IS WAY OVERDONE ON ITS PRECIP AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT I                 
BELIEVE IT'S LIFTING THE VORT MAX OUT TOO FAST IN THE MEAN SOUTHWEST            
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...WHICH                
SHOULD BRING BACK A CHANCE OF MORE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THE FRONT                 
THEN GETS PUSHED BACK SOUTH TOWARD KANSAS AND MISSOURI SUNDAY                   
EVENING.                                                                        
DEWALD                                                                          
.LONG TERM...00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN QUESTIONS REMAIN                 
ARCTIC FRONTAL TIMING AND PCPN CHCS...GENERALLY AHEAD OF IT.                    
CONTINUED SMALL POPS IN SUN NGT/MONDAY PERIOD AS GFS AND 00Z ECMWF              
BROUGHT A WEAK SFC FRONT THROUGH FCST AREA LATE SUNDAY AND THEN                 
SET UP POTENTIAL FOR ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF IT AS FRONT STALLS OUT                
AND ATTEMPTS TO LIFT BACK N. POPS COULD EVEN INCREASE A BIT LATE                
MON/MON NGT AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED BY GFS TO                 
CREEP INTO ERN ZONES AS LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET                 
NOSES TOWARD NERN NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GENERALLY KEEP               
MAX TEMPS MONDAY BELOW MEX GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUD                            
POTENTIAL...AND IT WAS NOTED THAT 12Z MEX NUMBERS WERE A CATEGORY               
OR SO COLDER THAN 00Z. ALSO WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNING A BIT               
MONDAY NIGHT ...RAISED LOWS AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT. FRONTAL TIMING               
TUESDAY WILL PLAY AN OBVIOUS ROLE IN MAX TEMPS...BUT BECAUSE OF A               
DECENT CHC THAT LOWS COULD TURN OUT EVEN WARMER THAN THOSE THAT                 
WILL BE FORECAST IN THIS SET...DECIDED TO RAISE HIGHS A                         
BIT...ESPECIALLY SINCE 12Z GFS WAS EVEN A BIT SLOWER WITH FROPA                 
THAN 06Z RUN WAS. ALTHOUGH AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF A SLOWER PASSAGE                
SINCE ONCE ARCTIC FRONTS START MOVING SEWD THEY SEEM TO MOVE A BIT              
FASTER THAN MODELS GIVE THEM CREDIT. KEPT IN SMALL PCPN CHCS POST               
FRONTAL AS A BIT OF 500-300 QG FORCING WAS FCST BY GFS...SPED UP                
CHANGE TO SNOW HOWEVER. BEYOND TUESDAY LOWERED TEMPS TUE NGT                    
THROUGH WED NGT AS AIRMASS IN WRN CANADA IS QUITE COLD AND TRENDS               
OF GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COLDER WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN.                   
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS ACROSS FCST AREA WED AS TROUGH                
SWINGS EWD ACROSS ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY                    
THEN...THUS ADDED FLURRIES TO FORECAST WED. COLD AND DRY                        
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL NEXT THURSDAY.                                        
CHERMOK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne