AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
1043 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                     
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY WHEN WE HAD 30              
MPH NW WINDS. ETA/RUC 850MB TEMPS FROM +7-10C SUGGEST TEMPS COULD               
REACH LOW 60S IF WE MIX UP TO 850MB. ON THE 22ND WE HIT 70F AT DDC              
WITH +16C AT 850MB AND RAGING DOWNSLOPE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A               
SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER TODAY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS WE WILL LOWER MAXES            
TO LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH THE LOWEST IN THE SE AND WARMEST WEST/NW.             
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOWERED AT MEDICINE LODGE.                                   
FCSTID=FINCH                                                                    
.DDC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1013 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                     
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPROUT ON THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE                
300MB JET SCREAMING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND IN THE WAA               
ZONE OF A 1000MB SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. AN            
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW TO DULUTH...AND ONWARD              
TO EASTERN SD. TIGHT GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING SURFACE WINDS IN THE                
15-25 MPH RANGE. THAT AND THE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS FROM DOING               
MUCH OF ANYTHING THIS EVENING.                                                  
THE SAULT HAD BEEN IN SOMETHING OF A DIFFERENT WORLD THAN THE REST              
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THANKFULLY...I WAS A LITTLE LATE             
IN GETTING THE ZFP UPDATE TOGETHER...LATE ENOUGH TO SEE KANJ JUMP 11            
DEGREES FROM 9 TO 10 PM. SO THE COLD AIR HAS FINALLY BEEN ROOTED OUT            
OF THE ST MARYS VALLEY. (WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THEM THRU                  
MIDNIGHT...RECORD HIGH FOR 1/25 IS ONLY 41.) SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL            
JUST BARELY EASE BACK INTO CHIPPEWA COUNTY BY DAYBREAK BEHIND THE               
COLD FRONT... SO CHIPPEWA COUNTY SHOULD FALL OFF A SMIDGE TOWARD                
MORNING. THE REST OF EASTERN UPPER SHOULD SEE TEMPS STEADY AROUND               
40...WARMER NEAR LAKE MI. WARMER TEMPS LARGELY A FUNCTION OF THE                
COLD FRONT TAKING ITS TIME TO EASE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. FOR THE SAME            
REASON...WILL REMOVE FLURRIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT EASTERN UPPER.                 
FOR NORTHERN LOWER...THOUGH MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN...DRY AIR              
BELOW WILL KEEP ALL PRECIP AS VIRGA. THOUGH THE GRADIENT IS PROGGED             
TO RELAX OVERNIGHT...THE THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL COUNTERACT.                
THUS EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS REST OF THE NIGHT. EXCEPTION IS THE             
FAR SOUTH...WHICH MAY GET A CHANCE OF RADIATE A BIT LATE TONIGHT ON             
THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS. COORD WITH GRR/DTX ON THESE               
ISSUES.                                                                         
BETWEEN 830PM AND 930PM...HAD REPORTS OF 45-48MPH GUSTS FROM MBL AND            
THE LEELANAU. LATEST RUC SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 950MB WINDS OF 45KT            
01Z-04Z...THEN DIMINISHING. NOT WORTH AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...              
GIVEN MARGINAL 45MPH GUST THREAT IS ONLY FOR ANOTHER HOUR. WILL                 
BASICALLY KEEP THE CURRENT ZFP WORDING NEAR LAKE MI...GUSTS AROUND              
40MPH EARLY.                                                                    
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW NR ZONAL FLOW ACRS NCNTRL CONUS             
BTWN VORTEX OVR HUDSON BAY AND DOMINATING RDG OVR THE SE AND DOWNWND            
OF TROFFING OFF PAC NW. SHEARED SHRTWV/130KT H3 JET MAX EMBEDDED                
WITHIN RATHER CONFLUENT FLOW ACRS ONTARIO SUPPORTING SFC LO OVR LK              
SUP. STRG WSW FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF THIS LO AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL               
BNDRY ON SRN FLANK OF VERY COLD AIR ACRS SRN CAN ADVCTG UNSEASONABLY            
WARM PAC AIR FM THE NCNTRL PLAINS INTO CWA. TEMPS HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN            
RISING LAST FEW HRS...WITH READINGS STILL IN THE 40S ACRS THE SRN               
TIER AND UP TO 41 HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE AT 01Z. BUT COLDER AIR                 
PRESSING S INTO ND AND NRN MN WITH NLY COMPONENT OF WND IN WAKE OF              
SFC LO. SFC TEMP AT 01Z DOWN TO 10 TO 15 FM DVL IN ND TO INL.                   
LEADING EDGE OF SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR...PER 00Z INL SNDG WHICH SHOWS               
INVRN AT H9 AND MSTR UP TO ONLY H85...PASSED THRU CKC ARND 01Z.                 
MAINLY JUST HI CLD OVR CWA ATTM AS REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GRB SDNG DRY              
THRU TROP...BUT SC IN ADVANCE OF FNT MOVG FM MN ARROWHEAD TOWARD                
KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH ENHANCED CLD IN RRQ OF H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING                 
ONTARIO SHRTWV EVIDENT FM ND INTO NRN MN...LTL IF ANY PCPN NOTED ALG            
COLD FNT AS 00Z INL AND BIS SDNGS ARE FOR THE MOST PART DRY.                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE TIMING ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT AND                      
ASSOCIATED CLD AND TEMP TRENDS. 00Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD                    
INITIALIZATION ON IMPORTANT FEATURES...SO USING ITS OUTPUT FOR                  
UPDATE. ARCTIC BNDRY APPEARS FAIRLY WELL CORRELATED WITH RUC 1295M              
H100-85 THKNS LINE AT 00Z.                                                      
RUC SHOWS 1295M THKNS LINE REACHING NRN KEWEENAW BY 03Z...THEN MQT              
TO IWD TO GRM ARND 06Z...AND FINALLY IMT TO ESC BY 12Z WITH MNM IN              
WARM SECTOR ALL NGT AS PUSH OF COLD AIR S GRDLY LOSES STEAM S WITH              
WNDS ALF REMAINING W. SO COLD AIR WEDGE SHUD BCM INCRSGLY SHALLOW               
PER RUC FCST SDNGS WITH INVRN NO HIER THEN H9-95. AS COLD AIR PICKS             
UP MSTR FM LK SUP AND UPSLOPES AT NRN SHORE...XPCT LO CLD TO OVRSPRD            
JUST THE NRN TIER ZNS WITH DOWNSLOPING AND/OR COLD AIR TOO SHALLOW              
FARTHER S FOR SGNFT SC. RUC AND EARLIER MODELS INDICATE SHOW H7-3               
QVECTOR CNVGC IN RRQ OF CAN H3 JET MAX TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THE JET             
MOVES E AND BCMS INCRSGLY SHEARED IN CONFLUENT FLOW. WITH ABSENCE OF            
ANY OTHER DYNAMICS...TNGT SHUD BE PCPN FREE. INCOMING COLD AIR                  
APPEARS TO BE TOO SHALLOW (AND TEMPS TOO HI AS H85 ONLY -8C AT INL)             
FOR ANY LES...BUT FLURRIES WL BE PSBL IN THE UPSLOPE NLY FLOW THAT              
DVLPS OVR THE NRN TIER LATE. ALTHOUGH -FZDZ/-DZ WOULD BE PSBL WITH              
FCST SDNGS SHOWING LLVL MSTR RATHER SHALLOW PER 00Z INL SDNG...SOME             
MID LVL MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED CLD OBSVD UPSTREAM AND DCRSG              
H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC MAY PROVIDE SOME SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS INTO LO             
CLD TO ALLOW FOR ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION (I.E. FLURRIES).                        
CORRELATING OBSVD TEMPS WITH RUC H100-85 THKNS SUGS MINS TNGT WL                
FALL TO ARND 20 OVR NRN KEWEENAW...25 OVR FM ONTONAGON TO MQT AND               
GRM...AND 30 FM IMT TO ESC. WL HAVE TO ADJUST VALUES UP A TAD FOR NR            
SHORE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LK SUP WRMG. ALTHOUGH MNM REMAINS ON WARM            
SIDE OF BNDRY ALL NGT...RUC SHOWS GRADIENT SLACKENING LATE. WITH                
DECOUPLING OF WND...XPCT READINGS THERE TO FALL TOWARD 32.                      
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS:                                               
EXPECT FRONT TO LINGER ACRS UPR MI SATURDAY TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY                
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY NORTH CNTRL WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.              
SATURDAY NIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES GOING AS FRONT             
FCST TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF UPR MI.                                            
SUNDAY...ETA/AVN SUGGEST FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A              
SHRTWV AGAIN STREAKS JUST NORTH OF THE WRN LAKES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE            
AND 1000-850 THICKNESS NEAR 1310...EXPECT TEMPS AGAIN WELL ABV                  
NORMAL NEAR HIGHER AVN GUIDANCE VALUES.                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS WAVE OF LOW                   
PRESSURE...BNDRY WILL AGAIN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HI PRES                
PRESSES INTO THE WRN LAKES FROM CNTR/WRN CANADA. UKMET AND ETA                  
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH             
OF UPR MI...SO THAT SFC AIR IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BECOMES              
ENTRENCHED BEFORE OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCE MONDAY               
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. WHILE AMPLIFYING WRN                
TROF PER AVN MAY RESULT IN GREATER HGTS AND WARMER AIR INTO UPR                 
MI...MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH -RA/FZRA INCLUDED GIVEN FAVORABLE               
PATTERN FOR FRZG PCPN DEPICTED BY UKMET/ETA.                                    
DAYS 4-7...TUES...12Z AVN SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW WITH SFC                
BNDRY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES IN SW             
FLOW ALOFT. POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE                     
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTH...WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -13C...IF THIS               
SCENARIO DEVELOPS. LIKELY POPS NOT MENTIONED YET DUE TO                         
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND UPR LVL SUPPORT.                 
ECMWF/MRF/00ZUKMET AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING AREA            
UNDER INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHT POS TILT TROF               
AND ENERGY FROM SRN ROCKIES SHRTWV EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SFC LO                 
MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY TOWARD THE                         
MID-ATLANTIC. 12Z/25 UKMET ALONE IN SHOWING MORE NEG TILT SYSTEM                
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. MDLS HAVE HOWEVER NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY               
WITH THIS STORM COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED THE STORM            
TRACK INTO THE CNTRL LAKES. EXPECT DEGREE OF COLD AIR INTO THE WRN              
LAKES IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...GIVEN THE USUAL MDL BIAS. IN                       
ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/WARMING SHOULD ALSO TEMPER COLD AIR.              
SO...TEMPS WERE KEPT AOA MRF GUIDANCE VALUES. 12Z AVN EXT SHOWS                 
SIGNIFICANT WAA ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY WITH MID LVL RDG BUILDING                 
TOWARD THE LAKES. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS TO AT LEAST -16C WL BE COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LES ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NRLY FLOW ON             
PERIPHERY OF THE LO TO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD BRING SHSN INTO NRTH                 
CNTRL UPR MI. WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT              
OF SFC FEATURES...AND NO PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION DURING THE                  
PERIOD...SCT SHSN WORDING WAS USED WED-FRI OVER THE NORTH AND MAINLY            
FLURRIES SOUTH.                                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN THRU THE                   
WEEKEND AND TEMPS VCNTY OSCILLATING LLVL BNDRY TO CHANCES/TYPE                  
BY MON/TUES WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.                             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED FLAT RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND             
WEAK TROF INTO ERN CANADA RESULTING IN NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN ACRS THE            
NRN TIER OF THE CONUS. SHEARED SHRTWV ALONG WITH STRONG 130KT H3 JET            
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL MANITOBA TOWARD WRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...LO                
PRES WAS LOCATED NEAR KINL WITH A TROF EXTENDING TOWARD THE KEWEENAW            
AND ERN LK SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE AND BRISK SW WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN               
ENOUGH MIXING TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 35-45F RANGE OVER MOST OF UPR             
MI SOUTH OF THE TROF AXIS. STRONGEST GRADIENT...HOWEVER...REMAINED              
TO THE SOUTH INTO NRN WI. VIS LOOP INDICATED ONLY PATCHES OF CI                 
UPSTREAM OVER NW WI AND NRN MN.                                                 
WHILE MDL HGT FIELDS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ETA AND AVN DISPLAY            
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SFC BNDRY LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH.                
THIS WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ETA            
IN HANDLING EFFECTS OF SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS THAT SHOULD SAG INTO THE            
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN MN LO.                                              
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT THE SFC LO TO MOVE INTO CNTRL LK                  
SUPERIOR...DEFLECTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT EWD                      
TRACK...AS IT RUNS INTO BACK EDGE OF ARCTIC HI OVER NE ONTARIO.                 
SO...SW BNDRY LYR WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING SHOULD HOLD                
TEMPS IN THE 30S TIL NEAR MIDNIGHT AS THE LO MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE             
AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. BY LATE TONIGHT...ETA BRINGS MORE LLVL               
MOISTURE INTO NRN UPR MI. EVEN...WITH RELATIVELY DRY 900-800 MB LYR             
DEPICTED...SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY                    
SATURDAY WEAK FORCING WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE NEAR THE                 
BNDRY. DRY LYR ALSO DOES NOT LOOK THICK ENOUGH TO FAVOR -FZDZ.                  
EXPECT FRONT TO LINGER ACRS UPR MI SATURDAY TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY                
CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY NORTH CNTRL WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING.              
SATURDAY NIGHT...KEPT MENTION OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES GOING AS FRONT             
FCST TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF UPR MI.                                            
SUNDAY...ETA/AVN SUGGEST FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AS A              
SHRTWV AGAIN STREAKS JUST NORTH OF THE WRN LAKES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE            
AND 1000-850 THICKNESS NEAR 1310...EXPECT TEMPS AGAIN WELL ABV                  
NORMAL NEAR HIGHER AVN GUIDANCE VALUES.                                         
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS WAVE OF LOW                   
PRESSURE...BNDRY WILL AGAIN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AS ARCTIC HI PRES                
PRESSES INTO THE WRN LAKES FROM CNTR/WRN CANADA. UKMET AND ETA                  
SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH             
OF UPR MI...SO THAT SFC AIR IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BECOMES              
ENTRENCHED BEFORE OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCE MONDAY               
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS. WHILE AMPLIFYING WRN                
TROF PER AVN MAY RESULT IN GREATER HGTS AND WARMER AIR INTO UPR                 
MI...MENTION OF SNOW ALONG WITH -RA/FZRA INCLUDED GIVEN FAVORABLE               
PATTERN FOR FRZG PCPN DEPICTED BY UKMET/ETA.                                    
DAYS 4-7...TUES...12Z AVN SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY FOR SNOW WITH SFC                
BNDRY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES IN SW             
FLOW ALOFT. POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE                     
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE NORTH...WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -13C...IF THIS               
SCENARIO DEVELOPS. LIKELY POPS NOT MENTIONED YET DUE TO                         
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW AND UPR LVL SUPPORT.                 
ECMWF/MRF/00ZUKMET AND MRF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING AREA            
UNDER INFLUENCE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH SLIGHT POS TILT TROF               
AND ENERGY FROM SRN ROCKIES SHRTWV EVENTUALLY LEADING TO SFC LO                 
MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR MS VALLEY TOWARD THE                         
MID-ATLANTIC. 12Z/25 UKMET ALONE IN SHOWING MORE NEG TILT SYSTEM                
INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. MDLS HAVE HOWEVER NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY               
WITH THIS STORM COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH SHOWED THE STORM            
TRACK INTO THE CNTRL LAKES. EXPECT DEGREE OF COLD AIR INTO THE WRN              
LAKES IS SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...GIVEN THE USUAL MDL BIAS. IN                       
ADDITION...LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/WARMING SHOULD ALSO TEMPER COLD AIR.              
SO...TEMPS WERE KEPT AOA MRF GUIDANCE VALUES. 12Z AVN EXT SHOWS                 
SIGNIFICANT WAA ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY WITH MID LVL RDG BUILDING                 
TOWARD THE LAKES. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS TO AT LEAST -16C WL BE COLD                
ENOUGH FOR LES ACTIVITY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NRLY FLOW ON             
PERIPHERY OF THE LO TO THE SOUTHEAST WOULD BRING SHSN INTO NRTH                 
CNTRL UPR MI. WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT              
OF SFC FEATURES...AND NO PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION DURING THE                  
PERIOD...SCT SHSN WORDING WAS USED WED-FRI OVER THE NORTH AND MAINLY            
FLURRIES SOUTH.                                                                 
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                     
CLOUD TRENDS AND RESULTING TEMPS ARE MAIN CONCERNS                              
SFC ANAYLYSIS FM 15Z SHOWS 1000MB SFC LOW OVR NORTHEAST NODAK WITH              
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NORTH OF MSP. SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO            
NORTH A TROUGH IS ORIENTED FM LOW ACROSS NRN MN AND FROM E TO W                 
ACROSS SOUTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR...BTWN P59 AND STDM4 AT 16Z.                  
TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LGT SNOW OVR PARTS OF UPR              
MI...WITH 88D NOW SHOWING WEAKENING REFLECTIVITIES CONFINED TO ERN              
FA. ATTM RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON SFC FEATURES. AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH             
AND WITH RUC SHOWING APPRECIABLE 285-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUBSIDING             
OVR FA BY NOON...EXPECT PATCHY LIGHT SNOW TO END OVR ERN ZONES AS IT            
HAS OVR W/C ZONES ALREADY.                                                      
VIS SAT SHOWING ONLY PATCHY AC/CI SOUTH OF BOUNDARY FM SRN FA INTO              
WI AND MN AND AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS OVR NRN FA TO            
BEGIN LIFTING AND SCOURING OUT EARLY THIS AFTN. BEST 3HR PRESSURE               
FALLS AROUND 3MB LOOK TO BE OVR NRN MN PER SFC OBS/MSAS PLOT...SO               
EXPECT SFC LOW OVR NW MN TO TREK TO NEAR YQT BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS               
WILL SHUNT TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIANT TO SOUTH OF FA...KEEPING FA               
MORE IN LINE WITH WIND SPEEDS OBSERVED OVR CNTRL MN THIS MORNING                
(10-15 MPH). LOW DRAWING CLOSER BY EVENING SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY              
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY CNTRL/EAST. THIS LEADS TO MAIN AFTN                 
PROBLEM...HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS GO? UPSTREAM AIR SOURCE IS CNTRL/SRN              
MN WHERE HIGHS YDY WERE IN 32-38F RANGE (HOWEVER 00Z MPX SOUNDING               
SHOWS A MIX TO H8...NOT LIKELY IN TODAYS SETUP). CORRESPONDING                  
1000-900MB THICKNESSES WHERE THESE HIGHS WERE REACHED ARE PROGGED TO            
MOVE INTO FA TODAY...WITH 840M (HIGHS AROUND 32F) LINE OVR NRN UPR              
MI AND 844M LINE (HIGHS 35-40) EDGING INTO SRN FA. EVEN WITH                    
INCREASING SUNSHINE...LIGHT SFC GRADIENT WL PROHIBIT SIG WARMING AND            
MECHANICAL MIXING. A MIX TO 975MB GIVES READINGS NEAR 40F IN THE FAR            
WEST WITH LOW-MID 30S ELSEWHERE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON                 
CURRENT OBS SO WL ADJUST TEMPS ACCORDINGLY FOR UPDATE.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
900 AM PST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                      
WINDS AT RIDGE LEVEL ARE SUSTAINED 40-50 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 70               
MPH. AT THESE SPEEDS...WIND SPEEDS IN THE VALLEYS WOULD BE MARGINAL             
FOR WARNING AND AN ADVISORY WOULD BE A MORE LIKELY CHOICE. THE                  
LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES THE PEAK 700 MB WINDS BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z            
WITH 50 KNOTS NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 60-65            
KNOTS IN NORTHERN 1/4 OF WASHOE COUNTY. THE FINAL DECISION TO                   
UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE THE WATCH WILL BE MADE LATER THIS MORNING.                 
TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS IN PLACE LOCALLY WITH OUR OUTSIDE                      
TEMPERATURE AT 5000 FEET IN THE MID 40S AND 10 KNOT WINDS WHILE AT              
THE AIRPORT IT IS STILL AROUND FREEZING. WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 25                
KNOTS AT TVL BUT ARE CURRENTLY CALM AT TRUCKEE.                                 
COASTAL RADARS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA BETWEEN             
EUREKA AND CRESCENT CITY CA. THE LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEM AND COLD CORE             
REMAINS OFFSHORE NEAR LONGITUDE 50N/135W WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME            
IS SPREADING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THE MODELS                
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD SEPARATING THESE FEATURES AND IN TURN                
LOWERING THE QPF VALUES FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ASSUMING THE                  
TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGRESSES TO BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AND THE                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS INTO NORTHERN CA...AN ATTEMPT TO PULL BACK                
THE WARNINGS MAY NOT BE THE RIGHT CALL AS THIS LOWERED QPF MAY                  
MERELY INDICATE A LOWER WATER CONTENT IN THE SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA            
BUT STILL ADDING UP TO 12-18 INCHES OF SNOW...OR IT COULD SIMPLY BE             
THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE OVERALL MOISTURE PRESENT IN THIS                 
SYSTEM. LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IS PLANNED FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD                 
PERIODS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MJD                                       
.REV...HIGH WIND WATCH TODAY ZONES 1..2/72...3...5 AND 71                       
       WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT-SATURDAY ZONES 2/72...71                    
       WINTER STORM WATCH SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT ZONE 73.                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1034 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                     
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF COAST AND EXPECT POST-FRONTAL RAIN TO END             
BY 16Z. ALREADY SEEING SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER IN STLT IMAGERY             
BUT MAY TAKE TIL LATE AFTN FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO CLEAR GIVEN               
ORIENTATION OF UPR LVLS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...TEMPS WILL HOLD             
NEAR CURRENT READINGS OR FALL A FEW DEGS DURING AFTERNOON.                      
MARINE: COLD FRONT SLIDING EAST AND JUST OFF THE COAST. SURGE OF CAA            
DRIVEN WINDS WILL LAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THEN DECREASE. BOTH RUC             
AND MESO ETA DEPICTING 25 TO 30 KT OVER COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z WITH              
WINDS BLOWING INTO THE GALE CATEGORY AT THE TOPS OF DSNL7 AND FPSN7.            
SFC HIGH BUILDS OVR THE AREA TONIGHT AND SAT WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT             
AND VARIABLE AND SEAS/SOUNDS SUBSIDING.                                         
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.                                           
PUBLIC: JBM                                                                     
MARINE: GC                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
215 PM MST FRI JAN 25 2002                                                      
MBW PROFILER SHOWING A DISTINCT DECREASE IN SPEEDS FROM 60 TO 45 KTS            
OVER THE PAST 6 HRS. LOWEST GATES ALSO SHOWING DISTINCT BACKING TO              
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SCENARIO BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR CYS AND                
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WRT HIGH WINDS. RUC40 SHOWS 850/700 MB HEIGHT            
GRADIENTS WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY BY 00 UTC/5 PM BUT STILL                      
MARGINALLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS CARBON/ALBANY                    
COUNTIES TO BLOW HIGH AT TIMES. 18 UTC RUN OF MESO-ETA CONTINUES TO             
HAVE 50-55 KTS THROUGH WIND CORRIDOR AT 700 MB FROM 12-00 UTC/5 AM-5            
PM SAT WITH 45-55 KTS PERPENDICULAR TO LARAMIE RANGE IN PLATTE CNTY.            
WILL KEEP HW WARNING GOING FOR MOUNTAINS AND PLATTE CNTY THROUGH                
SAT. WILL ALLOW WARNING FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS CARBON AND ALBANY                  
COUNTIES TO DIE AT 5 PM...BUT ISSUE HW WATCH FOR SAT. WEST PART OF              
CONVERSE CNTY...GLENROCK AREA...COULD BLOW LIKE CPR AGAIN TOMORROW              
BUT THINK DGW WILL BE A LITTLE LESS WINDY. MODELS HAVE FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY INCHING ITS WAY SOUTH AND EAST SUN NIGHT/MON...DROPPING                
SOUTHEAST OF CWA AT START OF MON EVENING. AVN HAS QPF ALONG LARAMIE             
RANGE AT 60 HRS/5 AM MON. BY START OF WORKWEEK WILL BE OUT OF HIGH              
WIND THREAT BUT INTO MUCH COLDER AIR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. BEST QPF            
SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL THEN.                                        
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...HI WIND WRNG  TNGT/SAT MTNS/PLATTE CNTY ZNS 63..64..66..67.                
     HI WIND WATCH SAT      SOUTH CENTRAL ZNS 61..62..65.                       
NE...NONE.                                                                      
COX                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wy                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
230 AM MST SAT JAN 26 2002                                                      
CURRENT SURFACE MAP PUT ARCTIC BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA               
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. POSITION OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE FURTHER            
SOUTH THAN 00Z ETA/AVN AND 06Z ETA/RUC INDICATE. STRONG SOUTHWEST               
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP KEEP THE FRONT FROM DROPPING SOUTH TOO FAST.               
BIGGEST PROBLEM THIS FORECAST WILL BE TIMING OF ARCTIC FRONT. FOR               
TODAY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...SO NEAR RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED            
AGAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN            
HALF OF CWA. MODELS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR            
INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY SUNDAY...THEN               
THROUGH REST OF CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF I-90 EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE            
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY              
AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.                                                
COLD THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR                 
TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW                  
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS                          
WEDNESDAY...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA...SO               
WILL PUT IN CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY. COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES               
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY...SO WILL NEED TO BUMP                    
TEMPERATURES DOWN. LOOKS LIKE A SLOW RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES FOR               
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
WILL REISSUE THE HWO FOR THE COLD WEATHER.                                      
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
955 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2002                                                      
AREA OF CLDS IN SE NC ASSCTD WI SFC LO OFF GA CST AND MSTR TAP FRM              
GLFMX MVG N THIS AM. LTST RUC SHWG LO CREEPG N THRU THE DAY. LO LVL             
MSTR MA PUT SRN AND ERN SXNS UNDR CLDS BY AFTN. TEMPS IN AREAS UNDR             
CLDS MA BE A CAT LWR THAN GOING FCST. WL UPDATE FOR TEMPS AND SKY.              
SEAS AT FRYING PAN ARND 5 FT ATTM. AS LO MVS N SEAS WL RMN IN THE               
SCEC RANGE THRU THE DAY. WL UPDATE CSTL TO REFLECT THIS.                        
.MHX...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY SOUTHERN WATERS.                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
500 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2002                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES ON RECORD WARMTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.                 
ZONAL PATTERN OVER US WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN         
THE SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING           
MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE STATE. FRONTAL ZONE LIES OVER EXTREME NORTHERN         
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH COLDEST ARCTIC AIR LYING JUST NORTH OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR. QUESTION AGAIN TODAY IS WHERE BOUNDARY WILL END UP.                   
MODELS DIFFER THIS RUN ON SURFACE FEATURES WITH ETA MUCH FURTHER SOUTH          
ON BOUNDARY. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON FEATURE WITH LITTLE FURTHER          
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT EXPECTED AS FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST.             
BOUNDARY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TODAY...HAVE FOLLOWED WARMER AVN FOR REST          
OF THE FORECAST. TRAJECTORIES 24 HOURS AGO SUGGESTED MIDDLE 40S FOR             
HIGHS YESTERDAY. TODAY TRAJECTORIES SAY MIDDLE 50S. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP        
A BIT MORE...GIVEN TEMPS STARTING OUT MILD. 850 TEMPS APPROACH +8 ON            
SUNDAY FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING.                                       
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS SHIFTING ON         
TIMING AND EXTENT OF EFFECTS OF COLD AIR. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH FEATURES        
SUGGEST KEEPING LOW POPS GOING.                                                 
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
TE                                                                              
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1125 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2002                                                     
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT IS                       
STALLING/PREPARING TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE NORTH. LATEST                        
ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT PROGRESS OF BOUNDARY WILL BE GRADUAL...                    
WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HANGING ON LONGEST ACROSS THE FAR                       
N/NE.                                                                           
MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS WILL                  
THIN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI...WHILE SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN UP               
WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS.                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA                                         
249 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2002                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION HELPING TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR              
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY             
AND CALM AT NIGHT FOR THE EARLY PERIOD.  ONLY PARAMETER CHANGING IN             
THE ZONES EARLY PERIOD WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES.  DEW POINTS THIS               
AFTN ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.  EVEN THOUGH DEW                
POINTS IN RUC AND LAMP ARE A FEW DEGREES OFF...THEY BOTH BRING DEW              
POINTS UP TONIGHT.  I WILL USE THIS AFTN DEW POINTS AS A BASES FOR              
TONIGHT'S TEMPS AND WORD TEMPS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS A FEW DEGREES               
COLDER.  WARM TEMPS IN THE MID WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY.               
GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE REASONABLE FOR SUN AND MON FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM             
TEMPS.  NORMAL TEMPS IN THE PIEDMONT ARE MID 40S WITH RECORD HIGHS              
IN THE UPPER 70S.  NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MNTS ARE UPPER 30S TO LOWER              
40S WITH RECORDS IN THE UPPER 60S.  MAX TEMPS FOR SUN AND MON WILL              
BE 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BUT NOT NEAR RECORD TEMPS.                  
EXTENDED...TUE AND WED WILL BE WARM AND QUIET.  HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD            
SWING ANY DISTURBANCES AROUND CWA TOWARD THE NORTH.  COLD FRONT                 
APPROACHES THE EAST COAST THU...HOWEVER MODELS PUSH MAJORITY OF THE             
ENERGY TO THE NORTH THRU THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  I AM NOT GOING TO              
STRAY FROM PREVIOUS ZONES AND GUIDANCE WITH PCPN...KEEPING A CHANCE             
FOR LATE WED/THU.                                                               
ROA   31  66  36  67 /   0   0   0   0                                          
LYH   27  64  34  66 /   0   0   0   0                                          
DAN   27  67  39  70 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BLF   36  62  42  61 /   0   0   0   0                                          
LWB   24  59  33  59 /   0   0   0   0                                          
BCB   25  61  35  63 /   0   0   0   0                                          
TNB   28  62  35  64 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.RNK...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
STONEFIELD                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   va