EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL                                    
930 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS WITH RUC40 500MB HEIGHTS AND                 
VORTICITY AND 500MB RAOBS OVERLAID WERE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE AND ITS            
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMA WERE EXITING THE PENINSULA INTO THE                 
ATLANTIC AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. LATEST              
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS AND METARS SHOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD                
MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH THE WINDS HAVING SHIFTED TO THE NORTH               
AND A THE LOW CENTERS THAT WERE IN THE EASTERN GULF HAD SHIFTED EAST            
OF THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND               
NORTHERN FL WAS PRODUCING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER NORTHEAST             
FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. STRONGEST CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE FRONT INTERACTED WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE                
BREEZE BOUNDARY. LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THAT THE STORMS HAD              
MOVED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WERE DISSIPATING WHILE SHOWERS                
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-EAST                 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.                                      
ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO BE PULLING AWAY FROM                
CENTRAL FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE FRONT SLIPPING FARTHER DOWN THE                  
PENINSULA ...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT               
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER              
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHERLY                
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALG THE                     
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM BREVARD NORTHWARD.                                         
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD MAY AFFECT VOLUSIA/BREVARD            
COUNTIES. OTHER SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH LAKE COUNTY WILL                   
DISSIPATE AS THEY PUSH SE. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE              
WINDS BUT WILL BE REMOVING FOG MENTION AS NORTH WINDS SHOULD KEEP               
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED BUT WITH LOW CLOUDS.                                  
.MARINE...SURGE OF NORTH WINDS HAS ENTERED OUR NORTHERN MARINE                  
AREA...CAPE WIND TOWERS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST ARE REPORTING 20KTS AS            
WELL AS SGJ. AS A RESULT...WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADV FOR THE NORTH             
LEG OVERNIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WIMMER/KELLY                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
840 PM MST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFLECT THE                   
INCREASING CLOUDINESS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE AREA AT 50 MPH FROM             
THE SOUTHWEST. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS INCLUDE THE TEMP/DP HOURLY GRIDS AS            
WELL AS MIN TEMPS.                                                              
AT 0345Z CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST FROM                    
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ETA HAS THE SPECS OF THIS AREA WELL FORECAST BUT              
LOADING THE ETA12 INTO THE GRIDS IS TOO HARSH WITH THE RUC SHOWING              
THE OVERALL PROGRESSION BETTER.                                                 
DEWPOINTS CONTINUING A SLOW INCREASE WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED                 
CLOUDINESS AND THE RUC FOR NOW HAS A BETTER GRASP ON THE GRADIENT               
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SO HAVE USED IT AS WELL. FOR                        
TEMPERATURES...03Z MET GUIDANCE FIT NICELY WITH 03Z OBS SO HAVE                 
FOLLOWED IT AND THE RUC FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. 5 DAY PERFORMANCE            
OF THE MAV/MET/FWC GUIDANCE FOR 1ST PERIOD MINS SHOWS VERY GOOD                 
PERFORMANCE SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED HERE. EXCEPTION WAS OVER THE            
FLAGLER AREA (FAR WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY) WHERE RIGHT NOW LIMON              
IS 20 DEGREES. LAST NIGHT THEY DROPPED INTO THE TEENS. I FOLLOWED               
THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS OUT THERE WHICH DROPS THEM QUITE A BIT             
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THATS IT FOR NOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HI AMPLITUDE WRN RDG/ERN             
TROF OVER NAMERICA HELD IN PLACE BY BLOCKING UPR HI OVER THE                    
NATLANTIC. SHRTWV RDG NOTED OVER NW ONTARIO IN NW FLOW ALF OVER THE             
UPR GRT LKS BTWN WRN RDG/ERN TROF...12HR H5 HGT RISES OF 70M NOTED              
AT INL/YPL. 1030MB ARCTIC HI PRES NOTED OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER THE               
SHRTWV RDG. BOTH 00Z SDNGS SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVRNS AT H85 ABOVE DRY              
PBL AS EVIDENCED BY INVERTED V TEMP/TD PROFILES. EARLIER TAMDAR SDNG            
FM YQT SHOWED A SIMILARLY DRY PBL. DESPITE THE NLY FLOW OF COLD AIR             
(00Z H85 TEMPS -17C AT INL/-22C AT YPL) BTWN SFC HI PRES TO THE NW              
AND LO PRES OVER LK HURON...THIS DRY AIR AND RELATIVELY ACYC LLVL               
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RDG AXIS STRETCHING S FM THE HI CENTER TOWARD              
THE WRN U.P. HAS NEGATIVELY IMPACTED LES BANDS IN SHORTER FETCH OVER            
WRN LK SUP. IN FACT...THERE IS LTL IN THE WAY OF CLDS OVER WRN LK               
SUP AS FAR E AS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE SOME -SHSN ONGOING.              
LATEST STLT IMAGERY SHOWS NRMS WIND PARALLEL BANDS IN GREATEST                  
CONCENTRATION OVER CNTRL LK SUP TO THE E OF SFC RDG AXIS AND WHERE              
FETCH LENGTH IS LONGER. BUT DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE REDUCING INTENSITY            
OF LES BANDS EVEN IN AREA FVRD BY THE OBSVD NLY FLOW AS MQT 88D                 
INDICATES REFLECTIVITY RETURNS GENERALLY UNDER 20DBZ EVEN THOUGH MQT            
VWP HINTS AT INVRN HGT AT 6K FT MSL. DESPITE THIS APRNT NEGATIVE                
IMPACT...STLT IMAGERY INDICATES THE LES BANDS OVER CNTRL LK SUP ARE             
BECMG MORE WDSPRD/FATTER. OTRW... LINGERING DIURNAL CLDS HAVE CLRD              
OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS AND IN THE FAR W (WITH DOWNSLOPING ACYC NE FLOW             
AT IWD).                                                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE LES TRENDS/TEMPS.                                   
LATEST RUC/ETA SHOW SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO DRIFTING SLOWLY E               
OVERNGT...WITH LLVL WINDS VEERING A BIT OVERNGT. LES WL CONT ALL NGT            
WITH A FLOW OF COLD AIR REMAINING. EXPECT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION            
OF SHSN TO BE OVER AREAS FVRD BY NNE LLVL FLOW...ERN MQT/WRN ALGER              
COUNTY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF FCST LLVL CNVGC FCST IS MARGINAL AS              
LARGER SCALE ACYC FLOW/DRY AIR UNDER DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC. EVEN              
THOUGH LES CHART WOULD SUG 3"/6 HRS WL ACCUMULATE...WL CUT DOWN FCST            
AMTS TO REFLECT IMPACT OF DRY AIR. BEST CHC FOR LOWEST TEMPS AOB                
ZERO WL WL BE OVER THE SCNTRL AND W IN AREAS OF DIFFLUENT/                      
DOWNSLOPING N-NE FLOW CLOSE TO SFC RDG AXIS. OVERALL...GOING FCST               
HAS GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND NEEDS LTL CHG.                       
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT.                
EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES ALONG NCNTRL COUNTIES IN MORNING                
UNTIL WINDS VEER E AND GENERALLY OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.                     
INLAND...DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN LEAD TO SOME STRATOCU FORMATION AS               
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN. GOING                
FCST HIGH TEMPS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A NOD            
TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.                                                     
SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BLEND OF MORE CONSISTENT UKMET...CANADIAN AND              
ETA SOLNS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS WITH DEEPENING OF TROF INTO            
UPR GREAT LAKES. THUS...BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF CHC OF -S INTO            
FORECAST AREA...LIMITING CHC POPS TO MAINLY WEST HALF OF FA LATE.               
BELIEVE...DRY ERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RDG WILL DELAY TOP DOWN                  
MOISTENING OF COLUMN PER WHAT ETA SNDGS SEEM TO BE                              
INDICATING...DESPITE ONSET OF STRONGER 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT                   
LATE.                                                                           
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MID-UPR LVL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE             
UPR GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE SPREADING               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND STRONG 295K ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ESPECIALLY INTO SCNTRL ZONES. NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW                      
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER ERN MN BY 12Z MOVING INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z               
MON. BELIEVE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY OVERCOME DRIER AIR AS                 
LOW-LEVELS. WITH NAM/UKMET 285-290K SFCS SHOWING MIXING RATIOS OF               
2-3G/KG AVAILABLE AND ETA/CANADIAN QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO .40             
INCH. WOULD EXPECT 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL               
COUNTIES GIVEN PROJECTED WATER/SNOW RATIO OF 15/1 WHERE BETTER                  
800-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM             
BEST LIFT EXPECT AMOUNTS MORE IN 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. ENHANCEMENT                 
POTENTIAL WITH SERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI WILL FAVOR MNM AND DELTA                  
COUNTIES FOR HIGHER SNOW AMTS OF 4-7 ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. ETA               
BUFR SNDGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA VALUES INTERSECTING FAVORABLE SNOW                 
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. LINGERING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL WILL            
KEEP HEAVIER SNOW GOING FOR DELTA AND MNM COUNTIES INTO SUN EVENING             
AS WELL. THUS..HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR IRON-DICKINSON FOR            
SUNDAY AND FOR DELTA-MNM COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS            
WINDS SHIFT MORE ENE ON BACKSIDE OF SFC TROF AXIS LATER SUNDAY                  
NIGHT...HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT MORE INTO NCNTNL                      
COUNTIES.                                                                       
MON-WED...THIS PERIOD AGAIN STILL LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A                    
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR N WIND FAVORED                           
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER MI (BARAGA/MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER              
COUNTIES). MODELS STILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT IN BROAD DEEP TROUGH               
WITH BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE OVER GREENLAND. COMBINATION OF DEEP                 
MOISTURE AND DEEP N TO NE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH AND 850MB TEMPS              
RUNNING AROUND -16C SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL VERY HEAVY SNOW FOR A              
EXTENDED PERIOD...BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO WED.               
THU-FRI...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THU AS OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW               
RDGG BUILDING IN FROM WEST 850 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -12C.              
STILL IF ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS HOLD TRUE NW FLOW WILL               
STILL YIELD SOME LIGHT LES ESPECIALLY FOR NRN COUNTIES. MORE                    
UNCERTAINTY ON FRI AS 12Z GFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR CLIPPER SYSTEM TO             
COME DOWN AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SO WILL KEEP            
A CHC OF SNOW IN FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                                
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY MIZ010-011.                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MIZ012-013.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
545 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE LINGERING LES AND MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...THEN                 
SYNOPTIC SNOW SUN WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR N WIND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW            
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW CONTINUING OVER            
WRN NAMERICA WITH STRONG RIDGE FROM THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES INTO CANADA            
AND SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING RIDGE INTO SW CONUS. POLAR VORTEX IS                
OVER HUDSON BAY WITH BLOCKING HIGH OVER GREENLAND. AS A RESULT...NW             
FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. CLIPPER SHORTWAVE              
OVER NRN ALBERTA IS DUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST BRINGING AMPLIFIED TROF                
INTO THE UPR GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MQT RADAR INDICATES             
GENERALLY WEAK LES BANDS INTO NCNTRL U.P. WITH A NRLY FLOW AHEAD OF             
BUILDING CANADIAN RDG. A FEW STRONGER RETURNS OF 20 DBZ OR HIGHER               
NOTED OVER ERN MQT AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES.                                      
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE SFC HIGH AXIS BUILDING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO                
INTO WRN UPR MI OVERNIGHT. ASSOC DRYING/SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE               
FOR SOME CLRG OVER WRN COUNTIES. HOWEVER SUSPECT INSTABILITY OVER               
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH TEMPS -18 TO -20C RANGE TO KEEP LES GOING                
INTO NCNTRL COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH ETA BUFR SNDGS SHOW INVERSION HGTS               
LOWER TO AROUND 4KFT LATER THIS EVENING...INCREASING LVLL                       
CONVERGENCE WITH LAND BREEZE COMPONENT TO WIND WILL INTO FAVOR ERN              
MQT AND WRN ALGER FOR SOME POSSIBLE HEAVIER LES BANDS. LOCAL                    
GUIDANCE 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THESE COUNTIES               
TONIGHT. INLAND AREAS WITH CLEARING SHOULD REACH AS LOW AS -5F UNDER            
SFC RDG...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT' READINGS UPSTREAM UNDER THE RDG                
AXIS.                                                                           
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT.                
EXPECT SOME LINGERING LIGHT LES ALONG NCNTRL COUNTIES IN MORNING                
UNTIL WINDS VEER E AND GENERALLY OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.                     
INLAND...DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN LEAD TO SOME STRATOCU FORMATION AS               
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN. GOING                
FCST HIGH TEMPS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S STILL LOOK GOOD WITH A NOD            
TOWARD COOLER MAV GUIDANCE.                                                     
SAT NIGHT...FOLLOWED BLEND OF MORE CONSISTENT UKMET...CANADIAN AND              
ETA SOLNS WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN GFS WITH DEEPENING OF TROF INTO            
UPR GREAT LAKES. THUS...BACKED OFF A BIT ON TIMING OF CHC OF -S INTO            
FORECAST AREA...LIMITING CHC POPS TO MAINLY WEST HALF OF FA LATE.               
BELIEVE...DRY ERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RDG WILL DELAY TOP DOWN                  
MOISTENING OF COLUMN PER WHAT ETA SNDGS SEEM TO BE                              
INDICATING...DESPITE ONSET OF STRONGER 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT                   
LATE.                                                                           
SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...MID-UPR LVL TROF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE             
UPR GREAT LAKES WITH GOOD DEEP Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTURE SPREADING               
ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND STRONG 295K ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ESPECIALLY INTO SCNTRL ZONES. NAM/CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW                      
DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER ERN MN BY 12Z MOVING INTO CNTRL WI BY 00Z               
MON. BELIEVE STRONG DYNAMICS WILL QUICKLY OVERCOME DRIER AIR AS                 
LOW-LEVELS. WITH NAM/UKMET 285-290K SFCS SHOWING MIXING RATIOS OF               
2-3G/KG AVAILABLE AND ETA/CANADIAN QPF AMOUNTS OF AROUND .25 TO .40             
INCH. WOULD EXPECT 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL               
COUNTIES GIVEN PROJECTED WATER/SNOW RATIO OF 15/1 WHERE BETTER                  
800-700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL WILL BE LOCATED. FURTHER NORTH AWAY FROM             
BEST LIFT EXPECT AMOUNTS MORE IN 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE. ENHANCEMENT                 
POTENTIAL WITH SERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MI WILL FAVOR MNM AND DELTA                  
COUNTIES FOR HIGHER SNOW AMTS OF 4-7 ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON. ETA               
BUFR SNDGS SHOW STRONG OMEGA VALUES INTERSECTING FAVORABLE SNOW                 
GROWTH REGION AS WELL. LINGERING LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL WILL            
KEEP HEAVIER SNOW GOING FOR DELTA AND MNM COUNTIES INTO SUN EVENING             
AS WELL. THUS..HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR IRON-DICKINSON FOR            
SUNDAY AND FOR DELTA-MNM COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS            
WINDS SHIFT MORE ENE ON BACKSIDE OF SFC TROF AXIS LATER SUNDAY                  
NIGHT...HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT MORE INTO NCNTNL                      
COUNTIES.                                                                       
MON-WED...THIS PERIOD AGAIN STILL LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A                    
PROLONGED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR N WIND FAVORED                           
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL UPPER MI (BARAGA/MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER              
COUNTIES). MODELS STILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT IN BROAD DEEP TROUGH               
WITH BLOCKING HIGH IN PLACE OVER GREENLAND. COMBINATION OF DEEP                 
MOISTURE AND DEEP N TO NE CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH AND 850MB TEMPS              
RUNNING AROUND -16C SHOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL VERY HEAVY SNOW FOR A              
EXTENDED PERIOD...BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO WED.               
THU-FRI...SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THU AS OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW               
RDGG BUILDING IN FROM WEST 850 MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND -12C.              
STILL IF ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS HOLD TRUE NW FLOW WILL               
STILL YIELD SOME LIGHT LES ESPECIALLY FOR NRN COUNTIES. MORE                    
UNCERTAINTY ON FRI AS 12Z GFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR CLIPPER SYSTEM TO             
COME DOWN AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SO WILL KEEP            
A CHC OF SNOW IN FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY MIZ010-011.                                
 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MIZ012-013.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1240 PM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE FRONT WILL                  
PROGRESS EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER TO              
THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER, WHILE THE LIFT WILL SUBSIDE ALONG WITH THE             
SNOW...BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH QUICKLY              
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.                                
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...  ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST                                               
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO                  
ADVANCE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW.  WHILE LATEST RADAR                    
RETURNS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE CWA, UPSTREAM WE ARE OBSERVING AN             
INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN                  
INTERACTION AND AIDED BY 100KT 300MB EXIT REGION TO ENHANCE LIFT.               
LATEST RUC HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES SO WE WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...JUST REFRESH THE ZFP TO REMOVE             
MORNING TIME REFERENCES.                                                        
PLENTY OF IN-HOUSE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.  TRENDS CONTINUE WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK AS SHORT WAVE DIVES            
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TRYING TO PHASE WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY               
FROM PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WE WILL AWAIT FOR THE             
ENSEMBLES AND LOCALLY PRODUCED WRFXX BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO OUR               
CURRENT HWO.                                                                    
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT  (ISSUED AT 300 AM EST)                         
PRETTY NICE AREA OF SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED WITH DISTURBANCE DROPPING            
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WITH UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES IN              
THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE PREVALENT FROM WISCONSIN...NOW INTO PORTIONS              
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS VORTICITY CENTER            
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.15 RANGE.            
GIVEN H85 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -10C OR SO...AND SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20...LIQUID/SNOW               
RATIOS SHOULD ALLOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR JUST A BIT BETTER.             
THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION QUICKLY THIS                       
MORNING...AND WILL ONLY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL               
(80%) IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE                      
DAY...STARTING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOWS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY            
AFTERNOON SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER ITSELF.                     
THIS TO WORK OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOW           
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS AT TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE             
VALUES AND THIS SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE. MAY EDGE THEM DOWN JUST A              
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF FRESH              
POWDER...AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.            
OVERALL...THOUGH...TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.               
A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN                
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED               
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW             
WARM IT GETS WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS IS LOOKING            
VERY COLD...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -12 C SOUTH TO            
-16 C NORTH. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...GOING FOR MAXES IN THE              
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. IF CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY                
LATE MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT MAXES MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE             
RANGE. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING            
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WARM                  
ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. EVEN SO...EXPECTING MINS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS              
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...PER ETA MOS. THE USUAL SUSPECTS/GOOD RADIATORS            
(PHN/BAX) HAVE A SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL MORE OR               
LESS HOLD FIRM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST OFF               
THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE                    
TODAY...AND THEN AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND (WITH THE HELP OF A FEW            
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH)...WITH AN EVENTUAL CUTOFF              
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT               
WEEK...PER 00Z CANADIAN/GFS. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON JUST HOW FAST THIS            
EVOLVES...AND WHEN PHASING OCCURS WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM.              
REGARDLESS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH PROBABILITY A STRONG LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION                 
IS...WILL THERE BE ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES AS THE COASTAL BOMB TAKES OVER. A LOOK AT THE 00Z EUROPEAN                
REVEALS A INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND             
BENCHMARK (40N/70W) ON MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z NOGAPS AND                
CANADIAN MODELS. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS IS MUCH FATHER WEST WITH THE               
SURFACE LOW...TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK. WHEN...WHERE...AND             
HOW FAST THIS COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW             
MUCH SNOW WE SEE...ASSUMING THE 500 MB LOW IS OVER OR JUST WEST OF              
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH FORGOT ABOUT SEEING ANY             
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FOR CONTINUITY...AND THE FACT I AM NOT READY TO               
PUT MUCH STOCK IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL YET...WILL CONTINUE TO                   
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY.               
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF RAIN...AS IT APPEARS THE WARM AIR WILL               
PINCH OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DEEPENS AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES.                                                                
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD AS THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN                
CANADA IS SLOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST (IF AT ALL).                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD             
OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIP OFF TO THE               
EAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LOWERING OF THIS CLOUD FIELD UNTIL                  
STRONGER OVER RUNNING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE OVER THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS                 
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 09Z NORTH TO                  
AROUND 11-12 IN THE DTW AREA. GOOD SHOT OF OVER RUNNING TO MOVE INTO            
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH FIRST IN             
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SO EVEN WITH            
A FAIRLY DRY SOUNDING AT 00Z...EXPECT FAIRLY QUICK SATURATION AND               
MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AFTER 09Z AND            
INTO THE DTW AREA AROUND 12Z. BEST SNOWFALL/SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO            
BE BEFORE 18Z...LINGERING TO AROUND 21Z IN THE DTW AREA...THEN MID              
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED               
COLD FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AFTER 21-00Z...SO MAINLY JUST                   
FLURRIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DG/SF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SNOW TRENDS FOR AFTN IS AGAIN MAIN CONCERN                                      
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE PASSING TO E AND A                  
WEAKER SHORTWAVE GRAZING N LK SUPERIOR. GENERALLY THIS SETUP HAS                
BEEN CASE LAST FEW DAYS. A COUPLE OF MAJOR DIFFERENCES TODAY THOUGH             
IN THE SFC PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS HAD GRIP ON REGION FOR             
MOST OF THE WEEK HAS GIVEN WAY TO ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES FM                 
JAMES BAY INTO N LK MI AND EXTENDING INTO S IA. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS             
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE BISECTS KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LK              
SUPERIOR WITH SFC TEMPS UPSTREAM OF LK SUPERIOR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS            
DESPITE SUNSHINE. VIS SAT SHOWS MAJORITY OF LAKE CLOUDS RUNNING OUT             
AHEAD OF THE LAKE TROUGH WITH NNE-SSW WIND PARELLEL BANDS SETTING UP            
OVR N HALF OF LK IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH.                                         
A LOT OF CAVEOTS IN THIS FCST BUT WILL BASICALLY KEEP GOING FLAVOR              
OF GRIDS/ZFP. LAKE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT N ZONES OTHER THAN               
KEWEENAW BY 18Z...ALREADY STARTING TO SNOW AT IWD AND ONTONAGON.                
DEVELOPING NE FLOW THORUGH H9 AND N FLOW AT H85 ALONG WITH H85 TEMPS            
COOLING TOWARD -16C BY LATE AFTN IS FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING LK                 
EFFECT. CONCERN IS CURRENT INSTABILITY IN LWR LAYERS MAY ALLOW FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG INCOMING TROUGH TO FALL HEAVY AT LEAST BRIEFLY.              
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES BTWN 8.0-9.0C/KM AND SB CAPES THROUGH H8                 
AROUND 50J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCEMENT TO THE SNOW                         
SHOWERS...NOT JUST ALONG LK SUPERIOR BUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INLAND             
AS WELL. IN FACT...HIGHEST LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 1000-850MB            
LAYER ARE PRESENT FM IMT-ESC-ISQ BY MID AFTN. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN               
THE MID 20S SUPPORT CU DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 18Z ESPECIALLY SEEING              
HOW QUICK TEMPS ARE RISING THIS MORNING AFTER CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS.            
CHANGES WERE PRETTY MINOR...BUT DID ADD POSSIBILITY OF HEAVIER                  
BURSTS OF SNOW AND TWEAKED TEMPS.                                               
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS OUT. TEXT ZFPMQT UPDATED SOON.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 419 AM EST THIS MORNING)...                         
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE LES TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...SYNOPTIC                 
SNOW SUN AND THEN POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR N WIND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW                 
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER WRN                   
NAMERICA WITH STRONG RIDGE FROM THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES INTO CANADA AND            
SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING RIDGE OVER THE FAR SW CONUS. POLAR VORTEX IS            
OVER HUDSON BAY...UPSTREAM OF MASSIVE CLOSED HIGH OVER                          
ICELAND/GREENLAND (NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN). IN THE RESULTING NW FLOW              
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...ONE SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SE THRU MN              
INTO WI WITH ASSOCIATED AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOST PART PASSING            
JUST SW AND S OF UPPER MI. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED W OF JAMES             
BAY. SOME LES IS NOTED ON KMQT RADAR IMAGERY OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
IN LIGHT WRLY FLOW. SATELITTE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SINGLE            
DOMINANT LES BAND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
SHORTWAVE OVER MN/WI WILL CONTINUE SE THIS MORNING WHILE SHORTWAVE W            
OF JAMES BAY ALSO ROTATES SE. END RESULT WILL BE A DEVELOPING NRLY              
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER WRN ONTARIO IN THE                
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVES. UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDING AT KINL SHOWED A MOIST            
PROFILE FROM ABOUT 875MB UP...ABOVE A WELL MIXED LAYER (A NEGATIVE              
FACTOR FOR LES). 850MB TEMP WAS -12C. AT CWPL...00Z SOUNDING                    
REVEALED A MUCH DRIER COLUMN AND A DEEPER WELL MIXED LAYER EXTENDING            
TO ALMOST 800MB. 850MB TEMP WAS MUCH LOWER AT -21C. NAM/GFS FCST                
SOUNDINGS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TODAY...SHOWING A DEEP MOIST COLUMN               
SIMILAR TO OBSERVED 00Z KINL SOUNDING BUT WITH COLUMN THEN DRYING               
DURING THE AFTN IN LINE WITH CWPL SOUNDING. AT THE LOW-LEVELS...GFS             
AND NGM SHOW NRLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THIS MORNING.               
NAM/RUC13 SHOW WIND SHIFT REACHING KEWEENAW BY 12Z BUT NOT CLEARING             
THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES UNTIL MID AFTN. WSETA IS            
EVEN LATER IN THE MID/LATE AFTN. GIVEN OBSERVED CONDITIONS ON AND               
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM...APPEARS NAM/RUC13 PROBABLY HAVE THE                 
RIGHT IDEA. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...SHARP DIRECTIONAL                 
CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO A BAND OF MDT/HVY SNOW ALONG WIND SHIFT AS              
IT MOVES ONSHORE THRU THE DAY...SUPPORTED BY DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE              
AND ADEQUATE OVERWATER INSTABILITY. PASSAGE DURING THE AFTN WHEN                
DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE AT ITS PEAK TO DISRUPT LES PROCESSSES WILL              
KEEP SNOW FROM GETTING TOO HEAVY. NONETHELESS...THERE MAY BE A QUICK            
INCH OR TWO...MAYBE 3...OF ACCUMULATION AS IT PASSES. INLAND...STEEP            
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST LOW-MID              
LEVELS WILL PROMOTE INSTABILITY SHSN AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC TROF.             
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER TONIGHT WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SE...            
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. THERE               
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR LES AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE             
-18 TO -20C RANGE. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL ENSURE LES WILL             
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DESPITE INSTABILITY...AND BANDS SHOULD BE              
FAIRLY WELL SEPARATED DUE TO THE DRY AIR. BETTER LES COVERAGE WILL              
BE OVER THE NCNTRL WITH FLOW MORE CONVERGENT DUE TO LAND BREEZE                 
COMPONENTS TO WIND. FLOW OVER WRN SUPERIOR ACTUALLY VEERS NE OVER               
NIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF RIDGE...SO LES MAY END OVER ALL BUT SHORELINE             
AREAS NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH            
W AND 1-2 NCNTL. INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY SW INTERIOR SHOULD GET               
QUITE COLD WITH EXPECTED CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND. HAVE               
GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH MINS AS LOW AS -5F.                    
SFC RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR SAT.                
WITH AIRMASS PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LINGERING LIGHT LES...               
WILL NEED TO CARRY SHSN NEAR THE LAKE UNTIL WINDS VEER SE AND                   
OFFSHORE. INLAND...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SOME STRATOCU                   
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY CNTRL/E...AS NAM FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP               
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AGAIN. HAVE CUT MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WITH              
CHILLY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY.                                  
SAT NIGHT/SUN...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE                
SHARP AMPLIFICATION OF TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS/UKMET ARE             
VERY SIMILAR WITH MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS INTO ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12Z             
SUN WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER ERN MN. CANADIAN GLOBAL IS BIT                 
SLOWER WITH SFC LOW OVER WRN MN. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PCPN...            
BRINGING IT ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. UKMET/NAM ARE NOT FAR            
BEHIND WHILE CANADIAN HAS PCPN JUST ENTERING WRN UPPER MI AT 12Z                
SUN. WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS SINCE RECENT GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN            
INCONSISTENT ON TIMING/PLACEMENT AND DEGREE OF NRN STREAM                       
AMPLIFICATION. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE ALSO SHOWN GOOD                      
CONSISTENCY ON A SLOWER SOLUTION OVER THE WEEKEND. SO...WILL BRING              
-SN CHC ACROSS ABOUT THE W HALF OF FCST AREA SAT NIGHT.                         
GOING FCST OF SNOW LIKELY IS ON TRACK FOR SUN. NAM/GFS 285-290K SFCS            
SHOW MIXING RATIOS OF 2-3G/KG AVAILABLE WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 4-6            
INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE DAY SUN. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN GFS/NAM            
MODEL QPF SUGGEST. IN ANYCASE...LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOW              
FOR SUN WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM SCNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI WHERE             
BETTER LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LINE UP. WILL LIKELY              
BE AN ADVY EVENT FOR THE S AND PERHAPS ELSEWHERE.                               
MON-WED...THIS PERIOD MAY SHAPE UP TO PRODUCE A VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE            
ENHANCED SNOW EVENT FOR N WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NCNTRL            
UPPER MI (BARAGA/MARQUETTE/WRN ALGER COUNTIES). GFS HAS COME BACK               
TOWARD SOME OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MID/UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF MORE            
TO THE W IN THE GREAT LAKES...SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN                 
MODELS WHICH HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY. COMBINATION OF DEEP                   
MOISTURE/DEEP N TO NE CYCLONIC FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND              
-15C SHOULD LEAD TO VERY HEAVY SNOW FOR A POTENTIALLY EXTENDED                  
PERIOD...BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUING THRU TUE...AND POSSIBLY INTO              
WED PER 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL. IF ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE             
RIGHT TRACK...THIS WILL VERY EASILY BE THE BIGGEST EVENT OF THE                 
SEASON FOR NCNTRL UPPER MI. TOTALS MIGHT JUST RIVAL SOME OF THE                 
BIGGER EVENTS IN THE RECORD BOOK IF THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS RIGHT              
WITH A LONG DURATION EVENT OCCURRING THRU WED. THAT SEEMS TO BE THE             
LEAST LIKELY SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT THOUGH. INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE             
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JLA                                                                
PREV DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1100 AM EST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO                  
ADVANCE EAST WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW.  WHILE LATEST RADAR                    
RETURNS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE CWA, UPSTREAM WE ARE OBSERVING AN             
INCREASE IN THE SNOWFALL.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN                  
INTERACTION AND AIDED BY 100KT 300MB EXIT REGION TO ENHANCE LIFT.               
LATEST RUC HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES SO WE WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...JUST REFRESH THE ZFP TO REMOVE             
MORNING TIME REFERENCES.                                                        
PLENTY OF IN-HOUSE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT             
WEEK.  TRENDS CONTINUE WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK AS SHORT WAVE DIVES            
SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND TRYING TO PHASE WITH RESIDUAL ENERGY               
FROM PACIFIC SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WE WILL AWAIT FOR THE             
ENSEMBLES AND LOCALLY PRODUCED WRFXX BEFORE MAKING CHANGES TO OUR               
CURRENT HWO.                                                                    
BGM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT  (ISSUED AT 300 AM EST)                         
PRETTY NICE AREA OF SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED WITH DISTURBANCE DROPPING            
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LAKES REGION...WITH UPSTREAM VISIBILITIES IN              
THE 1 TO 2 MILE RANGE PREVALENT FROM WISCONSIN...NOW INTO PORTIONS              
OF LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS VORTICITY CENTER            
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.15 RANGE.            
GIVEN H85 TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -10C OR SO...AND SURFACE                       
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20...LIQUID/SNOW               
RATIOS SHOULD ALLOW LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR JUST A BIT BETTER.             
THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION QUICKLY THIS                       
MORNING...AND WILL ONLY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF CATEGORICAL SNOWFALL               
(80%) IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS SNOW WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE                      
DAY...STARTING WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOWS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY            
AFTERNOON SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY CENTER ITSELF.                     
THIS TO WORK OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOW           
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IS AT TO JUST BELOW GUIDANCE             
VALUES AND THIS SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE. MAY EDGE THEM DOWN JUST A              
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF FRESH              
POWDER...AND AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.            
OVERALL...THOUGH...TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.               
A GOOD SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AS STRONG CANADIAN                
HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH THE HIGH CENTERED               
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW             
WARM IT GETS WITH THE LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE. THE AIRMASS IS LOOKING            
VERY COLD...AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM -12 C SOUTH TO            
-16 C NORTH. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...GOING FOR MAXES IN THE              
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE. IF CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOP BY                
LATE MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT MAXES MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE             
RANGE. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING            
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ASSURE A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES. WARM                  
ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION AFTER              
MIDNIGHT. EVEN SO...EXPECTING MINS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS              
OUTSIDE OF THE CITY...PER ETA MOS. THE USUAL SUSPECTS/GOOD RADIATORS            
(PHN/BAX) HAVE A SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO.                                   
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL MORE OR               
LESS HOLD FIRM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST OFF               
THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST TO RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE                    
TODAY...AND THEN AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND (WITH THE HELP OF A FEW            
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH)...WITH AN EVENTUAL CUTOFF              
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT               
WEEK...PER 00Z CANADIAN/GFS. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON JUST HOW FAST THIS            
EVOLVES...AND WHEN PHASING OCCURS WITH THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM.              
REGARDLESS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH PROBABILITY A STRONG LOW                
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION                 
IS...WILL THERE BE ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT                
LAKES AS THE COASTAL BOMB TAKES OVER. A LOOK AT THE 00Z EUROPEAN                
REVEALS A INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND             
BENCHMARK (40N/70W) ON MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z NOGAPS AND                
CANADIAN MODELS. MEANWHILE...00Z GFS IS MUCH FATHER WEST WITH THE               
SURFACE LOW...TRACKING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK. WHEN...WHERE...AND             
HOW FAST THIS COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW             
MUCH SNOW WE SEE...ASSUMING THE 500 MB LOW IS OVER OR JUST WEST OF              
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH FORGOT ABOUT SEEING ANY             
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. FOR CONTINUITY...AND THE FACT I AM NOT READY TO               
PUT MUCH STOCK IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL YET...WILL CONTINUE TO                   
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ON MONDAY.               
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF RAIN...AS IT APPEARS THE WARM AIR WILL               
PINCH OFF AS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DEEPENS AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES.                                                                
COLD TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST                  
PERIOD AS THE COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION/EASTERN                
CANADA IS SLOW TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST (IF AT ALL).                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR STRATOCU WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD             
OF NEXT SYSTEM AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIP OFF TO THE               
EAST. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY LOWERING OF THIS CLOUD FIELD UNTIL                  
STRONGER OVER RUNNING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE OVER THE UPPER                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS                 
LOOKS LIKE CLOUD DECK SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 09Z NORTH TO                  
AROUND 11-12 IN THE DTW AREA. GOOD SHOT OF OVER RUNNING TO MOVE INTO            
THE ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z...WITH ADDITIONAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH FIRST IN             
A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING INTO THE REGION AS WELL. SO EVEN WITH            
A FAIRLY DRY SOUNDING AT 00Z...EXPECT FAIRLY QUICK SATURATION AND               
MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AFTER 09Z AND            
INTO THE DTW AREA AROUND 12Z. BEST SNOWFALL/SYNOPTIC LIFT APPEARS TO            
BE BEFORE 18Z...LINGERING TO AROUND 21Z IN THE DTW AREA...THEN MID              
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED               
COLD FRONT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AFTER 21-00Z...SO MAINLY JUST                   
FLURRIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS CONTINUING.                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DG/SF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
830 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE LOBE ALONG LOWER RIOGRANDE PLAINS TO COASTAL               
BEND GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE               
BEGINNING TO ENHANCE FROM RADAR IMAGERY. LATEST RUC (RAPID UPDATE CYCLE)        
MODEL SHOWS LOBE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER AREA WITH INCREASING INTENSITY           
LATE TONIGHT. WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE          
WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS          
IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST FRI FEB 25 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
CONTINUED CLOUDY...DAMP AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SATURDAY.             
FORECASTS SHOW AREA OF COOL AIR CONTINUING OVER S CNTRL TX THRU                 
SATURDAY...AS WX SYSTEM ALOFT TO THE WEST MOVES JUST NORTH OF AREA.             
WX PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO FEB 1ST...EXCEPT TEMPS ARE A LITTLE WARMER             
WITH THE PATTERN THIS TIME.  FORECASTS CONT TO SHOW GOOD WARM AIR               
ADV ABOVE SHALLOW COOL AIR SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD CHANCE            
OF RAIN.  HIGH TEMPS APPEAR LIMITED SATURDAY IN RAINY PATTERN...SO              
WILL SHOW LITTLE WARMING FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.  LINGERING RAIN                   
SATURDAY EVENING MAINLY OVER EAST HALF OF AREA IS EXPECTED TO                   
DECREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                  
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO EVOLVE SUNDAY FROM THE WEST...WITH                
WARMER TEMPS.                                                                   
DRIER WEATHER CONTINUING ON MONDAY.  RETURN SOUTHERLY WINDS TUESDAY             
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY                     
WEDNESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN OR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY.  CLEARING SKIES            
EXPECTED THURSDAY.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                
FRIDAY THRU THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH.                                         
&&                                                                              
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...TX...NONE.                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19/02                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
326 AM MST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SANGRES...EVEN AN EARLIER SPOTTER             
REPORT NEAR CRESTONE OF 1/2 INCH FROM A SNOW SHOWER THERE.  UPPER               
LOW PER WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS PARKED OVER COLORADO.                       
AS DAYTIME HEATING SETS IN...LAPSE RATES JUMP TO 7.5-8.5C ACROSS                
THE STATE. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT WITH ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER INCH              
IN THE COLUMN...AND MOST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE MTN AREAS WITH A             
WEAK LEE TROF ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MTNS...            
AND MAINLY VIRGA ACROSS PLAINS. HOWEVER WITH 8.5C LAPSE RATES CAN'T             
RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL STRIKE OUT EAST. WILL KEEP ISOLD AFTERNOON               
THUNDER AREA WIDE. TWO PROBLEMS WITH A CONVECTIVE DAY LIKE TODAY...             
ITS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY           
FORM AND DROP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. HAVE PAINTED A BROAD 1-2 ACROSS             
MOST WEST/CNTRL MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS...HOWEVER WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED           
AT ALL TO GET REPORTS OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALSO...WITH VIRGA ON           
THE PLAINS...ALSO EXPECT SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ALOFT ARE              
NOT ALL THAT STRONG TODAY...BUT MIGHT GET SOME LOCAL 30-40 KTS UNDER            
A DISSIPATING VIRGA SHOWER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO                
YESTERDAYS NUMBERS WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS FROM CLOUDS AND PRECIP.                
TONIGHT...UPPER LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...AND NEXT                  
COLDFRONT ROLLS INTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING.  AS A RESULT...HAVE           
KEPT SCT MTN AND ISOLD PLAINS POPS...BUT DROPPED THE THUNDER. KC                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                                          
...COLD AND BLUSTERY SUNDAY THEN WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK...                       
BY SUNDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA                  
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY SHARP SHORT WAVE (REMNANT LOW FROM THE                 
LAST WEEK GONE BY) AT MID LVLS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH               
WITH GUST TO 30 WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL            
BE ACROSS THE REGION BUT QPF VALUES WILL BE QUITE LOW. I BELIEVE BEST           
SHOT OF PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DOWN ALONG THE RATON MESA/S SANGRES           
AS FLOW MAY BRIEFLY GO NNE ENHANCING THE OROGRAPHICS IN THIS REGION.            
AFTER THIS SYSTEM GOES BY...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST.                 
THIS WILL KEEP CO IN NW FLOW. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE FCST             
TO COME THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AROUND TUE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER                
SHOT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY C MTNS.                      
WITH A GENERAL WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND THE COOLEST AIR               
OFF TO OUR NE...THE PLAINS SHOULD BE RATHER TRANQUIL WITH HIGHS                 
GENERALLY IN THE 50S/L60S  THROUGH NEXT WEEK. \/HODANISH.                       
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SYNOPTIC SNOW LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN EVENING                  
AND THEN TRANSITION TO SIGNIFICANT N/NE WIND LAKE EFFECT/LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW MON-TUE.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM              
THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES AND SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING RIDGE ACROSS SRN               
ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EXTENDS FROM NRN CANADA INTO THE ERN LAKES/NEW               
ENGLAND UPSTREAM OF MASSIVE BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER                         
GREENLAND/ICELAND. RESULT IS NW FLOW OVER FCST AREA THIS MORNING.               
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ALBERTA AND IS                 
EXPECTED TO DIG SHARPLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH             
PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LES CONTINUES IN NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS                
CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
EXPECT A FAIRLY TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY DAY TODAY AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS E             
ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING BLO -16C              
ACROSS THE E 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY...LIGHT LES WILL              
CONTINUE AND WILL ONLY END WHEN WINDS SWITCH TO AN OFFSHORE                     
DIRECTION. 950MB WINDS FROM GFS/NAM/WSETA INDICATE AN ONSHORE                   
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN FROM ALGER COUNTY W TO THE                
KEWEENAW. WILL THUS NEED TO MAINTAIN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TODAY IN                
THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS. WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN CHILLY START TO THE DAY AND                
THERMAL TROF ONLY SLOWLY EDGING E.                                              
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF TROF                    
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUN-TUE. IN GENERAL...PREFER THE             
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION INDICATED BY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH               
HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING               
OFF SOMEWHERE OVER WI/LWR MI LATE MON/EARLY TUE. UKMET HAS COME                 
AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY SOLUTION THIS RUN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE                  
IMPLICATIONS ON DURATION OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AS             
WINDS BACK TO A NE TO N DIRECTION LATE SUN THRU TUE.                            
IN THE MEANTIME...NRN STREAM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT WITH                     
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z.              
GFS STILL REMAINS QUICKEST WITH PCPN AS IT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS                  
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY 12Z. PREFER THE SLOWER SNOW ONSET INDICATED BY              
NAM/CANADIAN AS DRY AIRMASS FEEDING OUT OF DEPARTING RIDGE ON SE                
WINDS SHOULD SLOW MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG                 
LINES OF CURRENT FCST AND BRING SNOW TO ABOUT A KMQT/KMNM LINE                  
TONIGHT. WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE OVER THE FAR W GIVEN STRONG                
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SNOW THERE. MAYBE AN INCH FAR WEST BY 12Z.                   
SNOWY DAY ON TAP ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA SUN/SUN EVENING. SHARPENING            
UPPER TROF/850MB LOW DEVELOPING SE INTO NRN WI AND TIGHTENING                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW                
ACCUMULATIONS. NAM/GFS SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 285-290K                
SFCS WITH 2-3G/KG AVBL WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 4-6 INCH 12HR                   
SNOWFALL. MODELS ALSO SHOW IMPRESSIVE 700MB UPWARD MOTION.                      
HOWEVER...INTERESTING ASPECT WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF VERY STEEP                
MIDLEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5C/KM INTO UPPER MI WHICH IS            
SHOWN MOST DRAMATICALLY ON NGM/NAM. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH             
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO             
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PERIODIC HIGH SNOWFALL RATES SUN.                  
12HR MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...BUT             
GIVEN FORCING AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION...HAVE A FEELING THAT IS                 
UNDERDONE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SNOW TOTALS BY LATE SUN EVENING TO               
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS W AND THE HIGHER              
AMOUNTS OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA WHERE BETTER FORCING OCCURS.              
THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SE FLOW...BUT              
IT LOOKS LIKE FETCH IN WHICH THERE IS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IS TOO              
SHORT TO PROVIDE MUCH ENHANCEMENT. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT ON             
THE KEWEENAW AS WELL...BUT 950MB FLOW LOOKS A BIT TOO MUCH S OF E TO            
BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN FORCING IS EXITING. STILL IT WILL              
BE SOMETHING TO LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. SO...GOING WATCH             
FOR IRON TO DELTA COUNTIES IS ON TRACK (WARNING CRITERIA IS 6 INCHES            
IN 12HRS THERE). SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ALSO HAS THE LOWER CRITERIA AND                
WILL ADD THAT AREA TO WATCH AS WELL. MARQUETTE/ALGER/LUCE MAY GET               
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 INCHES IN 12HRS...BUT DON'T FEEL                 
WATCH IS NECESSARY SINCE MORE LIKELY AMOUNTS ARE 5-7 INCHES.                    
AS MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOW EXITS SUN NIGHT...FCST GETS MORE COMPLICATED              
AS THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR IN NE FLOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST IT WON'T BE UNTIL AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE...BUT WITH A                  
PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...DON'T                
EXPECT A NE WIND TO DEVELOP UNTIL SOMETIME MON MORNING. AT THIS                 
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FCST OF LIKELY POPS IN THE WAKE OF THE              
MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN                
INCH OR TWO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE KEWEENAW WITH POTENTIAL OF                  
ENHANCEMENT IN ERLY FLOW.                                                       
EXPECT MAIN LAKE ENHANCED PERIOD TO BE MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH DEEP             
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW/DEEP MOISTURE AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15 TO               
-17C. WITH PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS MENTIONED                      
PREVIOUSLY...DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HANG BACK LONGER THAN GFS/NAM                 
INDICATE...AND IN GENERAL ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH              
MID/UPPER LOW HANGING BACK CLOSER TO UPPER MI THRU TUE MORNING                  
(CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE 5H LOW OVER NE LWR MI AT 12Z TUE). FEEL VERY               
CONFIDENT THAT WARNING AMOUNTS WILL BE EASILY EXCEEDED ACROSS                   
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE                   
BIGGEST SNOW OF THE SEASON IN THAT AREA. OUT W...GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON              
WILL BE FAVORED...BUT THAT AREA WILL SLIP OUT OF DEEPER MOISTURE                
SOONER. EVEN SO...THAT AREA SHOULDN'T HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING WARNING            
CRITERIA. FETCH WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW INTO              
LUCE COUNTY. THE KEWEENAW IS ALWAYS TRICKY UNDER NNE FLOW WHICH IS              
MORE PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN. WARNING AMOUNTS POSSIBLE                          
THERE...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN               
AREAS TO THE W AND E OF THERE. WILL NOT ISSUE WATCHES WITH THIS FCST            
ISSUANCE SINCE PERIOD OF INTEREST IS OUT IN THE MON-TUE                         
TIMEFRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER             
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY MIZ010-011.                                          
 WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MIZ012>014.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
950 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE AREA OF RAIN MOVING INTO EAST TX. CURRENT TRENDS AND RUC                  
MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING TO FALL EAST TX BY LATE            
AFTERNOON APPEAR ON TRACK. TEMPS HAVE SOME 10 DEGREE TO GO TO REACH             
UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE HARD PRESSED UNDER THICKENING HIGH            
CLOUDS...BUT SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR...SO SHOULD BE CLOSE.                      
NO UPDATE NEEDED.                                                               
PRELIMS ARE NEXT...                                                             
VII                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  57  44  49  42 /   0  80  80  20                                           
MLU  59  44  48  41 /   0  60  80  20                                           
DEQ  58  43  48  40 /   0  60  70  20                                           
TXK  58  44  48  41 /   0  70  80  20                                           
ELD  59  43  47  41 /   0  60  80  20                                           
TYR  57  44  53  41 /  30  80  50  20                                           
GGG  57  44  51  42 /  30  80  50  20                                           
LFK  57  45  56  43 /  30  80  50  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1021 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL                  
REACH NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER                      
NEW YORK STATE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST                    
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND                  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE COLD AND WINDY             
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER             
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE               
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...CURRENT SAT INDICATES CLEAR SKIES                 
ACROSS ENTIRE STATE OF MAINE AND WITH RUC INDICATING DRY NW FLOW TO             
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON TO DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA AND REMOVE POPS FOR              
NORTHERN SECTIONS. BUFKIT INDICATES POSSIBLE CU TO DEVELOP OVER                 
NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 335 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2005)                     
SYNOPSIS...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL                   
REACH NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER                      
NEW YORK STATE WILL TRACK OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST                    
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND                  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE COLD AND WINDY             
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER             
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE               
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.                          
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                      
PRETTY QUIET OVERALL IN THE SHORT TERM. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN                
ACROSS THE NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF            
NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA TODAY...THEN BEGIN                         
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS NORTHERN QUEBEC SUNDAY. EXPECT SKIES TO               
BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY ACROSS THE CWA...BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY IN               
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. PUT IN CHANCE                
POPS FOR -SHSN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS                  
WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS.           
NORTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY STRENGTHENS SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AXIS       
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH MORNINGS LOWS NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE               
NORTH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND CHILL             
ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY MORNING.                                                    
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                            
DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE GEM & UKMET W/THE ECMWF SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO             
THESE 2 MODELS IN REGARDS TO STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG THE             
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NCEP MDL            
DIAGNOSTIC DISC SUPPORTS THIS AS WELL. GFS COULD BE SUFFERING FROM              
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.                                                            
RAISED THE BAR ON POPS FOR TUE & WENT W/CATEGORICAL POPS. LEANED A              
BIT COOLER ON TEMPS. GFS NOW COMING IN COOLER. WINDS WERE ADJUSTED              
FOR TUE INTO WED USING THE DGEX W/MATCH GUIDANCE OVERLAYED.                     
THEREFORE...WINDS BOOSTED W/ENE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS STORM                    
INTENSIFIES. THIS MATCHES PRETTY WELL W/GYX. THANX GYX FOR INPUT.               
WILL UPDATE THE SPS THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR POTENTIAL FOR                   
SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT.                                                           
NO CHGS WERE MADE BEYOND WED TIME FRAME FOR CONTINUITY                          
PURPOSES.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOOKING FOR VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. PILOTS CAN EXPECT A CHOP THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING W/INCG NW FLOW.                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
NW FLOW TODAY WILL QUICKLY PICK UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE                     
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY                    
NIGHT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND SEAS.                  
DID BOOST WINDS/SEAS IN THE EXTENDED GRIDS W/INCG ENE FLOW. NOT                 
GOING FOR STORM THIS FAR OUT. DID PUSH WINDS TO 40 KTS ON TUE & THEN            
WINDS DROP & VEER TO WSW AS SYSM PULLS NWD.                                     
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT.                      
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...CALDERON                                                    
LONG TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...FOSTER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 AM EST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY ONGOING OVER THE NORTHERN KEWEENAW AS WELL AS NORTH CENTRAL            
AND NORTHEAST UPPER MICHIGAN. THE BANDING HAS BEEN FAIRLY                       
DISORGANIZED DUE TO SOME BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY                 
VEERING WINDS. HOWEVER...TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KCMX AND KSAW FROM               
AROUND 12Z SHOWED THE INVERSION NEAR 850MB...WITH DELTA-T VALUES                
NEAR 20 AND A FAIRLY MOIST SUB-INVERSION PROFILE. IN ADDITION...THE             
CAPE CONTAINED WITHIN THE SOUNDINGS IS CO-LOCATED WITH THE                      
DEPOSITIONAL SNOW GROWTH LAYER...WHICH HAS LED TO THE PRODUCTION OF             
LARGE DENDRITIC CRYSTALS. LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVENTED THE FLAKES FROM            
FRACTURING MUCH...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SNOW TO STACK UP NICELY IN              
SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE THE BANDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND AND HAVE BEEN               
SOMEWHAT CELLULAR IN NATURE...MOST SPOTS ONLY SAW UP TO 3 INCHES                
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOST PERSISTENT              
SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE...AND A SPOTTER NEAR CARLSHEND REPORTED 8                
INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS MORNING.                 
THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL                 
DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO VEER EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO                
CONTINUED DISORGANIZATION OF THE LES...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ALSO HELP                
PUSH THE SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND OVER WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY              
FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY              
EARLY EVENING. THIS FACT...COMBINED WITH A LOWERING INVERSION AND               
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...WILL BRING AN END TO THE SNOW                
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY EARLY EVENING. ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL                    
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THINGS WILL BE ON               
THE DOWN TREND AND BANDS WILL BE SHIFTING IN ORIENTATION.                       
HOWEVER...SOME BRIEF HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST NEAR M-28                
FROM NEGAUNEE EASTWARD INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                                    
TRH                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FCST ISSUE IS SYNOPTIC SNOW LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN EVENING                  
AND THEN TRANSITION TO SIGNIFICANT N/NE WIND LAKE EFFECT/LAKE                   
ENHANCED SNOW MON-TUE.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM              
THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES AND SRN STREAM UNDERCUTTING RIDGE ACROSS SRN               
ROCKIES. DEEP TROF EXTENDS FROM NRN CANADA INTO THE ERN LAKES/NEW               
ENGLAND UPSTREAM OF MASSIVE BLOCKING HIGH CENTERED OVER                         
GREENLAND/ICELAND. RESULT IS NW FLOW OVER FCST AREA THIS MORNING.               
NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN ALBERTA AND IS                 
EXPECTED TO DIG SHARPLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. AT THE SFC...HIGH             
PRES WAS CENTERED OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LES CONTINUES IN NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS                
CNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
EXPECT A FAIRLY TRANQUIL BUT CHILLY DAY TODAY AS SFC RIDGE DRIFTS E             
ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING BLO -16C              
ACROSS THE E 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU THE DAY...LIGHT LES WILL              
CONTINUE AND WILL ONLY END WHEN WINDS SWITCH TO AN OFFSHORE                     
DIRECTION. 950MB WINDS FROM GFS/NAM/WSETA INDICATE AN ONSHORE                   
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN FROM ALGER COUNTY W TO THE                
KEWEENAW. WILL THUS NEED TO MAINTAIN SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES TODAY IN                
THOSE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A MIX OF SUN/CLOUDS. WILL LEAN                  
TOWARD LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN CHILLY START TO THE DAY AND                
THERMAL TROF ONLY SLOWLY EDGING E.                                              
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF TROF                    
AMPLIFICATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUN-TUE. IN GENERAL...PREFER THE             
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION INDICATED BY THE ECMWF/CANADIAN WHICH               
HAVE SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING               
OFF SOMEWHERE OVER WI/LWR MI LATE MON/EARLY TUE. UKMET HAS COME                 
AROUND TO A SLIGHTLY SOLUTION THIS RUN AS WELL. THIS WILL HAVE                  
IMPLICATIONS ON DURATION OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AS             
WINDS BACK TO A NE TO N DIRECTION LATE SUN THRU TUE.                            
IN THE MEANTIME...NRN STREAM BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TONIGHT WITH                     
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA DROPPING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z.              
GFS STILL REMAINS QUICKEST WITH PCPN AS IT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS                  
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY 12Z. PREFER THE SLOWER SNOW ONSET INDICATED BY              
NAM/CANADIAN AS DRY AIRMASS FEEDING OUT OF DEPARTING RIDGE ON SE                
WINDS SHOULD SLOW MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. WILL CONTINUE ALONG                 
LINES OF CURRENT FCST AND BRING SNOW TO ABOUT A KMQT/KMNM LINE                  
TONIGHT. WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY LATE OVER THE FAR W GIVEN STRONG                
MODEL AGREEMENT ON SNOW THERE. MAYBE AN INCH FAR WEST BY 12Z.                   
SNOWY DAY ON TAP ACROSS ENTIRE FCST AREA SUN/SUN EVENING. SHARPENING            
UPPER TROF/850MB LOW DEVELOPING SE INTO NRN WI AND TIGHTENING                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SNOW                
ACCUMULATIONS. NAM/GFS SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 285-290K                
SFCS WITH 2-3G/KG AVBL WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 4-6 INCH 12HR                   
SNOWFALL. MODELS ALSO SHOW IMPRESSIVE 700MB UPWARD MOTION.                      
HOWEVER...INTERESTING ASPECT WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF VERY STEEP                
MIDLEVEL (700-500MB) LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5C/KM INTO UPPER MI WHICH IS            
SHOWN MOST DRAMATICALLY ON NGM/NAM. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH             
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO             
SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND PERIODIC HIGH SNOWFALL RATES SUN.                  
12HR MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE...BUT             
GIVEN FORCING AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION...HAVE A FEELING THAT IS                 
UNDERDONE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT SNOW TOTALS BY LATE SUN EVENING TO               
RANGE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH THE LIGHTER AMOUNTS W AND THE HIGHER              
AMOUNTS OVER THE SE AND ERN FCST AREA WHERE BETTER FORCING OCCURS.              
THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SE FLOW...BUT              
IT LOOKS LIKE FETCH IN WHICH THERE IS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY IS TOO              
SHORT TO PROVIDE MUCH ENHANCEMENT. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT ON             
THE KEWEENAW AS WELL...BUT 950MB FLOW LOOKS A BIT TOO MUCH S OF E TO            
BE A FACTOR UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN FORCING IS EXITING. STILL IT WILL              
BE SOMETHING TO LOOK AT AGAIN IN LATER MODEL RUNS. SO...GOING WATCH             
FOR IRON TO DELTA COUNTIES IS ON TRACK (WARNING CRITERIA IS 6 INCHES            
IN 12HRS THERE). SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ALSO HAS THE LOWER CRITERIA AND                
WILL ADD THAT AREA TO WATCH AS WELL. MARQUETTE/ALGER/LUCE MAY GET               
CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 INCHES IN 12HRS...BUT DON'T FEEL                 
WATCH IS NECESSARY SINCE MORE LIKELY AMOUNTS ARE 5-7 INCHES.                    
AS MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOW EXITS SUN NIGHT...FCST GETS MORE COMPLICATED              
AS THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFF LAKE                    
SUPERIOR IN NE FLOW. GFS/NAM SUGGEST IT WON'T BE UNTIL AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME NE...BUT WITH A                  
PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS...DON'T                
EXPECT A NE WIND TO DEVELOP UNTIL SOMETIME MON MORNING. AT THIS                 
POINT...WILL MAINTAIN GOING FCST OF LIKELY POPS IN THE WAKE OF THE              
MAIN SYNOPTIC SNOW SUN NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN                
INCH OR TWO. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE KEWEENAW WITH POTENTIAL OF                  
ENHANCEMENT IN ERLY FLOW.                                                       
EXPECT MAIN LAKE ENHANCED PERIOD TO BE MON INTO EARLY TUE WITH DEEP             
CYCLONIC NNE FLOW/DEEP MOISTURE AND 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -15 TO               
-17C. WITH PREFERENCE FOR THE SLOWER SOLUTION AS MENTIONED                      
PREVIOUSLY...DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD HANG BACK LONGER THAN GFS/NAM                 
INDICATE...AND IN GENERAL ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH              
MID/UPPER LOW HANGING BACK CLOSER TO UPPER MI THRU TUE MORNING                  
(CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE 5H LOW OVER NE LWR MI AT 12Z TUE). FEEL VERY               
CONFIDENT THAT WARNING AMOUNTS WILL BE EASILY EXCEEDED ACROSS                   
BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE                   
BIGGEST SNOW OF THE SEASON IN THAT AREA. OUT W...GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON              
WILL BE FAVORED...BUT THAT AREA WILL SLIP OUT OF DEEPER MOISTURE                
SOONER. EVEN SO...THAT AREA SHOULDN'T HAVE TROUBLE EXCEEDING WARNING            
CRITERIA. FETCH WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW INTO              
LUCE COUNTY. THE KEWEENAW IS ALWAYS TRICKY UNDER NNE FLOW WHICH IS              
MORE PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN. WARNING AMOUNTS POSSIBLE                          
THERE...ESPECIALLY KEWEENAW COUNTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN               
AREAS TO THE W AND E OF THERE. WILL NOT ISSUE WATCHES WITH THIS FCST            
ISSUANCE SINCE PERIOD OF INTEREST IS OUT IN THE MON-TUE                         
TIMEFRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER             
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
ROLFSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                    
 WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY MIZ010-011.                                          
 WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING MIZ012>014.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
930 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN INITIATION.                   
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO                
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG AB/SASK/MT BORDER REGION. COLUMN             
INITIALLY DRY FROM 12Z UA ANALYSIS WITH ANY MOIST ADVECTION DURING              
DAY CONFINED TO WELL BLO 850MB. 20F DEWPOINTS OVER SE 1/4 OF SD                 
HOWEVER WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW PREFER RUC SOLUTION IN NOT BRINGING              
THESE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ACROSS BORDER UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON.                  
VSBY'S IMPROVING OVER FAR SOUTH SO EXPECT MAINLY MVFR/IFR CIGS AS               
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYERED RH HOLDS OFF UNTIL                 
SECOND PERIOD SO NO EXPANSION OF PCPN PLANNED. STEADY WARM ADVECTION            
TODAY AND WITH PARTIAL/FILTERED SOLAR CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST              
LOOKS REASONABLE WITH ANY CHANGES MINOR.                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
540 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
9Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GFS/ETA BEING               
TOO SLOW.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 850 LOOKS PRETTY DECENT WITH THIS              
EVENT...AND EXPECT PREVAILING RAIN MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH               
RAIN BEGINNING IN ACT SOON AND AT METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 18Z.                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 850 IS RATHER WEAK...AND ALTHOUGH THE LOWER            
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED DUE TO FALLING PRECIP...LATEST MAV/FWC MOS             
IS LIKELY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECASTING IFR CIGS.  EXPECT JUST               
MVFR VIS/CIGS FOR DFW/DAL/FTW...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR SURFACE              
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE SOUTH WARRANTS TEMPO IFR AT ACT.  HAVE NOT               
MENTIONED THUNDER BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                  
THIS.  EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF 700-850MB TROUGH AXIS AFTER 6Z WILL END            
PRECIP AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.  TR/92                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RADAR SHOWS THAT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH TEXAS                            
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AS OF 10Z.              
RAIN WILL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS                 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH. WITH THE                   
SATURATED GROUND...AND STREAMS AND SOME POINTS ON THE RIVERS                    
HIGH...MORE RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE               
THAT THE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT                          
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH. THE                 
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL                  
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...FROM TUESDAY MORNING                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED              
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST...WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING ACROSS                   
NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN                  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO                   
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  #58                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  42  58  41 /  60  80  30  10                          
WACO, TX              54  41  61  42 / 100  90  20  10                          
PARIS, TX             57  42  52  38 /  40  90  50  20                          
DENTON, TX            57  41  58  38 /  50  70  20  20                          
MCKINNEY, TX          58  42  57  38 /  50  80  30  20                          
DALLAS, TX            57  42  58  41 /  60  90  30  10                          
TERRELL, TX           57  43  57  40 /  60  90  30  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         56  43  58  41 /  80  90  30  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            52  41  62  42 / 100  90  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
58/                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
236 PM MST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS POPS.                                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
WEAK COLD CORE (-28C AT H5) UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO            
...WITH FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 80+ KT JET CORE DIVING            
OUT OF EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING                
RATHER SPRING LIKE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS           
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND             
ADJACENT PLAINS ATTM.                                                           
TONIGHT...FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS EASTERN BC CONTINUES TO MOVE            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...WITH COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH               
SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY            
ALLOWING FOR WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH STEEP              
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM ACROSS THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO                
SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH BEST COVERAGE              
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THIS EVENING...WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A             
COUPLE OF INCHES UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED                 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY VIRGA AND           
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING.                   
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD BE ON THE WANE              
AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL MTS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 9Z-12Z WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY             
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH IN ITS WAKE. HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED POPS                
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DVD REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH               
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED                 
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH LIFT FROM FRONT...TO POP A FEW SHOWERS.                
SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PLAINS INTO EASTERN MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MODELS                   
CONTINUING TO PRINT OUT MODEST QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND              
RATON MESA REGION. WITH NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT OF 15-25KTS SFC-               
H7...ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...CANT             
ARGUE AND HAVE BUMPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCES FOR THIS AREA...KEEPING              
ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. HAVE ALSO KEPT CHANCES ACROSS THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE                
MORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION            
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS MODELS INDICATING DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WITH              
PASSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY NORTHERLY             
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE STAYED                 
GENERALLY BETWEEN GUIDANCE TEMPS. -MW                                           
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                       
MON THROUGH WED...SOMEWHAT OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...                   
HOWEVER...BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL DATA. NORTHWEST FLOW                      
CONTINUES SUN NGT INTO MON. THE GFS80...AS USUAL...IS MORE MOIST                
AND BLOWING UP A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCED IMPLIED ASCENT                
BAND OF PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE NAM DOESN'T REALLY REFLECT AS                 
INTENSE OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALSO...THERE APPEARS TO              
BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC                  
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY TUE-WED. HOWEVER...AS                   
USUAL...THE GFS80 IS VERY INTENSE WITH THE SHORTWAVE WHILE THE                  
NAM/DGEX JUST HAVE A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LESS MOISTURE AND               
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY. GIVEN PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES...              
WILL PLAN TO STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.                              
THU THROUGH SAT...WEAK-MOD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE                 
ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY                 
PROMOTE POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND A              
MODERATING TEMP TREND AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE                   
DIVIDE. THE GFS80 HAS KIND OF A "CLIPPER" ULJ RACING OUT OF CANADA              
SAT INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THIS COULD BRING SOME                      
UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK TO COLORADO FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AGAIN...GIVEN              
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL PLAN TO STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE               
AND BLEND BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. [METZE]                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BROKEN/OVERCAST VFR CIGS THAT ARE CURRENTLY REPORTED AT THE                     
METROPLEX TAF SITES WILL RAPIDLY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND OR SHORTLY                
AFTER 27/00Z...AS -RA CONTINUES TO SATURATE THE STUBBORN WEDGE OF               
DRY AIR LOCATED WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. CIGS ARE              
ALREADY APPROACHING MVFR CRITERIA AT KACT...AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 3             
KFT BETWEEN 26/18-21Z. BASED ON KFWS/KGRK REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY...AND            
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -RA FOR ALL                
LOCATIONS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DELAY IN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AT               
KDFW/KDAL. PRECIP SHOULD END AT ALL AIRPORTS BY 27/12Z...WITH                   
CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO EAST            
OF THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE IN              
DIRECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHWEST BY                
LATE SUNDAY MORNING...AS SURFACE TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE HIGH                 
PLAINS.                                                                         
65/DD                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PER TRENDS ON RADAR/SATELLITE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL              
WRN HALF OF N TX WITH LIKELY WORDING TO I-35 CORRIDOR FROM HILLSBORO            
TO THE RED RIVER. GENERALLY KEPT NE CORRIDOR (N I-20/E OF I-35 IN               
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TODAY...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MORE INLINE FOR             
TONIGHT AND S/W AND WRN GULF INVERTED TROUGH HEAD ENE TOWARD THE LWR            
MS VALLEY. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT STATED...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LOOKED AT             
CLOSELY FOR TONIGHT AT 4 PM ISSUANCE FOR ABOUT THE SE 1/3 OF N                  
TX...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW DESPITE LOW FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS            
FOR A FEW REASONS. FOR ONE...TOTAL QPF NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN                
INCH BASIN-WISE THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN            
0.5-0.75 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SUN. DISC WITH WGRFC/OTHERS                   
INDICATES RIVER FLOOD RISK LOW ATTM.                                            
FINALLY...MORE GREENERY/ EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION POTENTIAL SHOULD HELP              
OUT AS WELL. THUS...ONLY EXPECT LOCALIZED...MINOR STREET/CREEK                  
/STREAM TYPE PROBLEMS AT WORST WHICH CAN BE HANDLE BY SHORT TERM                
FCSTS AND ADVISORIES (FLS) IF NEEDED (THANKS TO EWX FOR COORD).                 
OTHERWISE...PER COOLER TEMPS OUT WEST AND EXPECTED RAIN SHIELD MOST             
OF THE DAY...REDUCED HIGHS THAT REGION TO 47-50 WITH LOWER-MID 50S              
OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MORE TOWARD 21Z-00Z AND              
AFTER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TRENDS MADE TO WINDS/DEW PTS/ETC.  05/              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
540 AM CST                                                                      
09Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GFS/ETA BEING              
TOO SLOW.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 850 LOOKS PRETTY DECENT WITH THIS              
EVENT...AND EXPECT PREVAILING RAIN MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH               
RAIN BEGINNING IN ACT SOON AND AT METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 18Z.                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 850 IS RATHER WEAK...AND ALTHOUGH THE LOWER            
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED DUE TO FALLING PRECIP...LATEST MAV/FWC MOS             
IS LIKELY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECASTING IFR CIGS.  EXPECT JUST               
MVFR VIS/CIGS FOR DFW/DAL/FTW...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR SURFACE              
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE SOUTH WARRANTS TEMPO IFR AT ACT.  HAVE NOT               
MENTIONED THUNDER BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                  
THIS.  EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF 700-850MB TROUGH AXIS AFTER 6Z WILL END            
PRECIP AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.  TR/92                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
325 AM CDT                                                                      
RADAR SHOWS THAT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH TEXAS                            
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AS OF 10Z.              
RAIN WILL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS                 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH. WITH THE                   
SATURATED GROUND...AND STREAMS AND SOME POINTS ON THE RIVERS                    
HIGH...MORE RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE               
THAT THE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT                          
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH. THE                 
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL                  
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...FROM TUESDAY MORNING                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED              
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST...WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING ACROSS                   
NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN                  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO                   
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  #58                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/05                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1040 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
PER TRENDS ON RADAR/SATELLITE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL              
WRN HALF OF N TX WITH LIKELY WORDING TO I-35 CORRIDOR FROM HILLSBORO            
TO THE RED RIVER. GENERALLY KEPT NE CORRIDOR (N I-20/E OF I-35 IN               
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TODAY...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MORE INLINE FOR             
TONIGHT AND S/W AND WRN GULF INVERTED TROUGH HEAD ENE TOWARD THE LWR            
MS VALLEY. AS PREVIOUS SHIFT STATED...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LOOKED AT             
CLOSELY FOR TONIGHT AT 4 PM ISSUANCE FOR ABOUT THE SE 1/3 OF N                  
TX...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW DESPITE LOW FFG VALUES AND SATURATED SOILS            
FOR A FEW REASONS. FOR ONE...TOTAL QPF NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN                
INCH BASIN-WISE THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO BETWEEN            
0.5-0.75 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z SUN. DISC WITH WGRFC/OTHERS                   
INDICATES RIVER FLOOD RISK LOW ATTM.                                            
FINALLY...MORE GREENERY/ EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION POTENTIAL SHOULD HELP              
OUT AS WELL. THUS...ONLY EXPECT LOCALIZED...MINOR STREET/CREEK                  
/STREAM TYPE PROBLEMS AT WORST WHICH CAN BE HANDLE BY SHORT TERM                
FCSTS AND ADVISORIES (FLS) IF NEEDED (THANKS TO EWX FOR COORD).                 
OTHERWISE...PER COOLER TEMPS OUT WEST AND EXPECTED RAIN SHIELD MOST             
OF THE DAY...REDUCED HIGHS THAT REGION TO 47-50 WITH LOWER-MID 50S              
OVER THE FAR EAST WHERE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MORE TOWARD 21Z-00Z AND              
AFTER. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TRENDS MADE TO WINDS/DEW PTS/ETC.  05/              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
540 AM CST                                                                      
09Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM WITH THE GFS/ETA BEING              
TOO SLOW.  ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 850 LOOKS PRETTY DECENT WITH THIS              
EVENT...AND EXPECT PREVAILING RAIN MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH               
RAIN BEGINNING IN ACT SOON AND AT METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 18Z.                   
MOISTURE ADVECTION BELOW 850 IS RATHER WEAK...AND ALTHOUGH THE LOWER            
LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED DUE TO FALLING PRECIP...LATEST MAV/FWC MOS             
IS LIKELY TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH FORECASTING IFR CIGS.  EXPECT JUST               
MVFR VIS/CIGS FOR DFW/DAL/FTW...BUT SLIGHTLY STRONGER NEAR SURFACE              
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE SOUTH WARRANTS TEMPO IFR AT ACT.  HAVE NOT               
MENTIONED THUNDER BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON                  
THIS.  EXPECT THE PASSAGE OF 700-850MB TROUGH AXIS AFTER 6Z WILL END            
PRECIP AND IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.  TR/92                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
325 AM CDT                                                                      
RADAR SHOWS THAT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH TEXAS                            
OVERNIGHT...AND WAS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AS OF 10Z.              
RAIN WILL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS                 
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT RAINFALL                
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO AVERAGE AROUND 1/2 INCH. WITH THE                   
SATURATED GROUND...AND STREAMS AND SOME POINTS ON THE RIVERS                    
HIGH...MORE RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE               
THAT THE URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...BUT                          
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT ENOUGH FOR A FLOOD WATCH. THE                 
RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. THE DRY PERIOD WILL                  
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS THE UPPER FLOW WILL BRING A SERIES OF UPPER                 
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...FROM TUESDAY MORNING                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED              
TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST...WITH HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISING ACROSS                   
NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN                  
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO                   
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  #58                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/05                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx