in-crop-weather

State
Indiana Crop Weather

Week Ending Date  
August 19, 2007

Issue
IN-CW332007


                        Agricultural Summary

Indiana crops continue to suffer due to high temperatures and little
rain, according to the Indiana Field Office of USDA's National
Agricultural Statistics Service. The northwest part of the state did
receive rain, but also received strong winds that damaged crops. In the
central and southern areas very little rain was received. Soybeans are
stressed from the weather situation and there is concern about the pods
filling. Corn condition varies across the state.
                                     
                           Field Crops Report
        
There were 6.0 days suitable for field work. Corn condition declined and
is rated 38 percent good to excellent compared with 72 percent last year
at this time. Eighty-nine percent of the corn acreage is in the dough
stage compared with 81 percent last year and 72 percent for the average.
Forty-one percent of the corn acreage is now dented compared with 34
percent last year and 29 percent for the 5-year average. Three percent
of the corn acreage is mature compared with 0 percent for last year and
1 percent for the average. Ninety-two percent of the soybean acreage is
setting pods compared with 83 percent last year and 82 percent for the
average. Soybean condition declined and is rated 35 percent good to
excellent compared with 72 percent last year at this time. 

Third cutting of alfalfa hay is 56 percent complete compared with 65
percent last year and 52 percent for the 5- year average. Major
activities during the week included: spaying for aphids, cleaning out
grain bins, readying equipment for harvest, and attending the state
fair.
                                    
                   Livestock, Pasture and Range Report

Pasture condition is rated 0% excellent, 6% good, 19% fair, 32% poor,
and 43% very poor. Hay is being fed to livestock because of poor pasture
conditions. 

                    Crop Progress Table
-------------------------------------------------------
                       : This : Last : Last : 5-Year
     Crop              : Week : Week : Year :  Avg
-------------------------------------------------------
                             Percent
Corn in Dough             89     73     81     72
Corn in Dent              41     22     34     29
Corn Mature                3     NA      0      1
Soybeans Setting Pods     92     78     83     82
Soybeans Shedding Lvs      4     NA      0      0
Alfalfa Third Cutting     56     32     65     52


                    Crop Condition Table
-----------------------------------------------------------
                    : Very :      :      :      : Excel-
     Crop           : Poor : Poor : Fair : Good :  lent
----------------------------------------------------------- 
                             Percent                             
Corn                    9     18     35     34      4
Soybean                 7     17     41     32      3
Pasture                43     32     19      6      0


        Soil Moisture & Days Suitable
             for Fieldwork Table
----------------------------------------
               : This  : Last  : Last :
               : Week  : Week  : Year :
----------------------------------------
                      Percent
Topsoil  
  Very Short      37      36       2
  Short           31      35      16
  Adequate        29      29      77
  Surplus          3       0       5
Subsoil 
  Very Short      37      36       2
  Short           38      39      15
  Adequate        24      25      79
  Surplus          1       0       4
Days Suitable    6.0     6.4     5.4

Contact information
--Greg Preston, Director
--Jamie Price, Agricultural Statistician
E-Mail Address: nass-in@nass.usda.gov
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Indiana
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 Other Agricultural Comments And News


                        PRICING CORN SILAGE IN 2007

                                     
Pricing from the seller's (corn grower's) point of view: 

"Production costs (excluding harvesting) are the same whether corn is
harvested as grain or silage. I want to maximize return per acre." 

1. Estimate income less harvest costs if crop was sold for grain:
   Estimate grain yield (bu./acre), multiply by price of corn if sold 
   (from the field) as grain, and then subtract harvesting and any
   storage costs to get gross post-harvest return per acre. This is 
   usually the minimum price ($/acre) for which you would be willing 
   to sell standing corn. Harvest costs would include combining, 
   hauling grain, drying, storage and any other marketing costs 
   incurred for the sale of the crop as grain. For example, if 
   estimated corn grain yield is 100 bu/acre, out of the field price
   of corn grain is $3.60 and grain harvest costs are $39/acre, then
   income less harvest costs would be $330 per acre. 

Example: (100 bu./ac. x $3.60/bu.) - $39/ac.= $321/acre 

2. Estimate silage yield per acre. A. For severely drought-stressed 
   corn that has little if any corn grain, measure height of several 
   plants (not including the tassel). Calculate average height 
   (in feet) and multiply by 0.9 to estimate tons of corn silage 
   (35% dry matter) per acre. For example average height is 6.5 ft
   x 0.9 = 5.9 tons of corn silage per acre. 

Note: This is not an appropriate method of estimating yield of normal
or even mildly drought-stressed corn. B. For mild to moderately
drought-stressed corn, estimate grain yield (bu./acre) and divide that
number by a value between 5 and 8. Five is for fields with moderate
drought-stress (grain yield substantially depressed) and 8 is for 
fields with little drought stress (yields essentially equal to normal).
If uncertain, 6 to 7 is a good compromise. 

Example: Grain yield is estimated at 100 bu./acre (mild to moderate
stress) divided by 6.5 = 15.4 tons of corn silage (35% dry matter) per
acre. 

3. Estimate price of corn silage needed to match return when selling
   grain. From step 1 above, return via grain was $321/acre and 
   estimated silage yield (step 2B) is 15.4 tons. $321/acre divided by 
   15.4 tons/acre = $20.84/ton of corn plants standing in field 
   (assumed harvested at 35% dry matter). This price should be 
   increased a bit to cover the value of the organic matter that will
   not be returned to the field. 

Buyer's (livestock producer's) Point of View. "I don't care what I feed
my cows as long as the diet provides the right nutrients. I want to
maximize return per cow." 

Determine what other feed, or more likely, feeds can be used to 
provide the nutrients provided by corn silage (remember, cows require 
specific nutrients, they do not require specific feeds). Your
nutritionist can formulate several diets with different feeds and
determine feed costs for the various diets. An alternate method is
to estimate the value of corn silage based on the value of the 
nutrients it provides. Corn silage provides net energy, effective 
fiber, and crude protein to dairy cows and those three nutrients 
comprise the bulk of the economic value of corn silage to a dairy
producer. 

Using a statistical technique, the economic value of those three
nutrients can be estimated based on the prices and nutrient 
composition of all (or most) of the feeds available in a market. The
method is complicated, but the calculated values appropriate for 
central Ohio at a specific point in time are available in the Buckeye
Dairy News (http://dairy.osu.edu/bdnews/bdnews.html). 

Both methods require knowledge of the nutrient composition of the corn
silage or corn plants (this is usually not known and the future price 
of nutrients and (also not known). When you do not have complete 
information, averages often are the best available option. Assuming 
average nutrient composition of drought-stressed corn silage and using
the dollar value of nutrients averaged over the past year, corn silage 
(35% dry matter) has a maximum value to a dairy farmer of $47 to 
$61/ton (average $54/ton). A range is given because of the uncertainty
associated with using averages and with the statistical method used to
calculate the value of the nutrients. For normal (not drought stressed) 
corn silage, the maximum value would be in the $58 to $60 range based 
on this year's nutrient prices. 

The $54/ton (+/- $7/ton) price is the maximum price a dairy farmer
should be willing to pay for corn silage when it is fed to the cow. In
other words, all costs and losses associated with silage making have
been paid. A dairy farmer should not pay more than about $54/ton 
because other feeds could replace corn silage at a lower cost. 

To arrive at a price to pay for a standing crop based on the $54/ton
(+/- $7/ton) nutrient value, the costs for harvesting, storing and
associated shrink and risk must be deducted. 

The average cost of storing corn silage is about $4/ton (35% DM) and
since the dairy farmer usually owns the storage system this cost is
deducted. During good fermentation approximately 10% of the dry matter
put into a silo is lost (carbon dioxide, seepage, etc.) and this cost,
sometimes referred to as shrink, also needs to be deducted when buying
corn plants, rather than already-fermented silage. 
Maximum feed value of corn silage when fed to a cow: $54/ton 
Cost of storage - $4/ton 
Cost of shrink - $5/ton 
Maximum value of chopped corn plants when put in silo $45/ton 

If you are purchasing standing corn and the dairy farmer is paying for
chopping, that cost must also be deducted: 
Maximum value of chopped corn plants when put in silo $45/ton 
Cost of chopping, hauling, fill - $6/ton 
Maximum price of standing corn plants (before risk) $39/ton 

When a dairy farmer purchases either standing corn or chopped corn
plants, he is assuming it will have the correct dry matter, ferment
properly and turn into good corn silage. This usually happens, but not
always. Drought- stressed corn carries the additional risk of having
high nitrates. The risk of a poor fermentation and high nitrates must
be considered and the price of either standing corn or chopped corn 
plants should be discounted. Negotiations between the grower and dairy
farmer ultimately determines this discount. 

Maximum price of standing corn plants $39/ton 
Risk adjustment (negotiated) - Negotiated 
Maximum price of standing corn plants(after risk adjustment)Negotiated 

DETERMINING ACTUAL SELLING/PURCHASE PRICE
In the example above, the grower must sell standing corn plants at 
$22.50/ton (the $21.40 calculated in Step 3 was increased to cover the 
value of organic matter) to make the same return as he would if he 
sold the crop as corn grain. The standing corn plants are worth
something less than $39/ton to a dairy farmer. Therefore the 
negotiation range would be between $22.50/ton and $39/ton. On average,
things average out which means the selling/buying price for standing 
corn in this example would be about $30/ton. 

Bill Weiss, Dianne Shoemaker, The Ohio State University, Agronomic Crops
Network by the Agronomic Crops Team.
----------------------------------------------------------------
The INDIANA CROP & WEATHER REPORT (USPS 675-770), (ISSN 0442-817X) is
issued weekly April through November by the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field
Office, 1435 Win Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 
47906-4145. Second Class postage paid at Lafayette IN. For 
information on subscribing, send request to above address. POSTMASTER:
Send address change to the USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office, 1435 Win
Hentschel Blvd, Suite 110, West Lafayette IN 47906-4145. 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             Weather Information Table

         Week ending Sunday August 19, 2007 
-----------------------------------------------------
                | Past Week Weather Summary Data   
                |---------------------------------
 Station        |      Air      |            | Avg  
                |  Temperature  |  Precip.   |4 in.  
                |---------------|------------|Soil 
                |Hi |Lo |Avg|DFN| Total|Days |Temp 
----------------------------------------------------- 
Northwest (1)                                    
Chalmers_5W      93  56   72  +1   0.11    1     
Francesville     89  53   71  +0   0.91    3     
Valparaiso_AP_I  88  53   70  +0   2.23    3     
Wanatah          89  50   69  -2   1.25    4   77
Winamac          88  53   71  +1   0.94    3   77
North Central(2)                                 
Plymouth         87  53   69  -3   1.52    4     
South_Bend       87  54   70  -2   0.93    3     
Young_America    91  52   71  +0   0.20    3     
Northeast (3)                                    
Columbia_City    87  52   70  +0   0.98    2   76
Fort_Wayne       88  52   71  -1   0.42    1     
West Central(4)                                  
Greencastle      95  55   74  +1   0.10    2     
Perrysville      96  54   75  +3   0.26    3   84
Spencer_Ag       93  58   76  +4   0.23    1     
Terre_Haute_AFB  93  56   76  +4   0.01    1     
W_Lafayette_6NW  95  49   72  +2   0.19    1   80
Central (5)                                      
Eagle_Creek_AP   96  59   78  +6   0.00    0     
Greenfield       94  55   74  +3   0.35    2     
Indianapolis_AP  96  62   79  +6   0.00    0     
Indianapolis_SE  94  56   75  +2   0.31    2     
Tipton_Ag        94  54   73  +3   0.24    3   82
East Central(6)                                  
Farmland         92  48   70  +0   2.26    2   74
New_Castle       90  52   71  +0   0.00    0     
Southwest (7)                                    
Evansville      104  64   84  +8   0.15    2     
Freelandville    96  60   78  +4   2.27    2     
Shoals           99  54   78  +5   0.09    1     
Stendal         103  63   83  +8   0.04    1     
Vincennes_5NE    99  62   80  +6   2.33    3     
South Central(8)                                 
Leavenworth     100  62   80  +8   0.22    1     
Oolitic         100  55   78  +5   0.07    1   83
Tell_City        99  65   81  +6   0.00    0     
Southeast (9)                                    
Brookville       98  52   77  +6   0.00    0     
Greensburg       95  58   77  +6   0.00    0     
Scottsburg      102  53   78  +5   0.08    1      
----------------------------------------------------


      Weather Information Table (Continued)

        Week ending Sunday August 19, 2007  
------------------------------------------------
                        Accumulation           
                --------------------------------
                      April 1, 2007 thru       
 Station                August 19, 2007     
                 --------------------------------
                  Precipitation   |GDD Base 50oF
                 --------------------------------
                       |     |    |     |
                 Total | DFN |Days|Total|  DFN   
-------------------------------------------------
Northwest (1)   |
Chalmers_5W     |13.30  -4.37   39  2424  +113
Francesville    |18.46  +0.81   46  2301  +171
Valparaiso_AP_I |11.74  -6.58   37  2394  +290
Wanatah         |16.88  -0.99   47  2209  +195
Winamac         |18.29  +0.64   47  2320  +190
North Central(2)|
Plymouth        |18.98  +1.00   52  2251   +22
South_Bend      |17.68  +0.48   42  2434  +341
Young_America   |12.07  -4.81   47  2424  +239
Northeast (3)   |
Columbia_City   |12.32  -4.77   50  2271  +276
Fort_Wayne      |12.08  -3.87   47  2472  +286
West Central(4) |
Greencastle     |13.83  -6.23   41  2427   -34
Perrysville     |12.63  -6.47   40  2660  +359
Spencer_Ag      |19.34  -1.22   41  2521  +201
Terre_Haute_AFB |15.71  -3.41   42  2674  +222
W_Lafayette_6NW |14.54  -3.14   44  2478  +298
Central (5)     |  
Eagle_Creek_AP  |10.63  -7.37   45  2820  +389
Greenfield      |11.43  -8.41   53  2562  +235
Indianapolis_AP |10.73  -7.27   44  2860  +429
Indianapolis_SE |13.91  -4.79   48  2560  +146
Tipton_Ag       |12.29  -5.68   50  2383  +266
East Central(6) |
Farmland        |13.04  -4.45   48  2324  +259
New_Castle      |12.97  -6.18   39  2367  +253
Southwest (7)   |
Evansville      |11.18  -7.12   39  3146  +317
Freelandville   |14.78  -4.27   42  2839  +305
Shoals          |15.36  -5.31   39  2656  +210
Stendal         |14.04  -6.35   43  3142  +480
Vincennes_5NE   |16.98  -2.07   44  2950  +416
South Central(8)|
Leavenworth     |15.00  -6.14   47  2888  +451
Oolitic         |13.69  -6.17   37  2602  +263
Tell_City       |17.16  -3.68   31  3079  +378
Southeast (9)   |
Brookville      |11.53  -7.73   34  2689  +471
Greensburg      |13.99  -5.32   42  2726  +454
Scottsburg      |16.71  -2.87   40  2779  +261
------------------------------------------------------------------
DFN = Departure From Normal (Using 1961-90 Normals Period).
GDD = Growing Degree Days.
Precipitation (Rainfall or melted snow/ice) in inches.
Precipitation Days = Days with precip of .01 inch or more.
Air Temperatures in Degrees Fahrenheit.

Copyright 2007:  Agricultural Weather Information Service, Inc.
                 All rights reserved.

       The above weather information is provided by AWIS, Inc.
For detailed ag weather forecasts and data visit the AWIS home page
                        at: www.awis.com