AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SUNNY W AND PARTLY SUNNY E OF RIVER. TEMPS MID              
80S AND DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S SE ALA TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND. 24 HR            
TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS SHARP LOCAL AIRMASS CONTRASTS WITH              
SITES W OF RIVER NOTICEABLY WARMER AND DRIER WITH THOSE E OF RIVER              
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND WETTER. WINDS W LESS THAN 10 MPH ALA/GA AND               
S/SW 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS FLA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLD CONVECTION MOVING               
ACROSS ERN BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE MID-UPR PATTERN WITH TROFS PAC NW AND NE              
WITH RIDGE IN BETWEEN. ERN TROF AXIS JUST E OF CWFA. ASSOCD UPR LO              
NE TENN MAKING SLOW NE PROGRESS WITH VORT LOBE NOW E OF CWFA.                   
SATELLITE H20 SHOWS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND S/W QUAD               
OF LOW AND FILTERING INTO LOCAL AREA. INCREASINGLY DRY UPSTREAM                 
SOUNDINGS ATTEST TO THIS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR ABOVE AIR MASS CONTRAST.            
AT SURFACE...LO OVER S CAROLINA WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT                     
EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL GA...SCNTRL ALA AND SRN MISS. UPR LOW               
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NE TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE            
REACHING MID ATLC STATES BY TOMORROW. LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING               
AROUND LO MAY BRUSH NE THIRD OF CWFA THIS EVENING SO WILL LEAVE                 
SMALL POPS THERE..OTHERWISE WILL DROP POPS. WITH HI DEW POINTS AND              
LIGHT WINDS..WILL INTRO PATCHY FOG LATE..MNLY E OF RIVER WHERE GRADS            
WEAKEST.                                                                        
NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SRN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE SE BUT REMAIN WELL N              
OF CWFA TOMORROW. AS SURFACE LO RIDES UP FRONT TONIGHT INTO                     
TOMORROW...FRONT SAGS SEWD BUT WITH UPR FLOW WEAKENING...SURFACE                
BOUNDARY BECOMES LARGELY PARALLEL TO UPR FLOW AND BOUNDARY                      
REMAINS ALONG OR JUST N OF CWFA. TOMORROW...AIR MASS BECOMES                    
INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE DEEP LYR RIDGE (BERMUDA HI) BEGINS TO NOSE             
WWD...CNTRL FLA SURFACE HI/RIDGE MOVES NWD. GA/ALA FRONT THEN                   
LIFTS NWD BY SUNDAY. THUS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR FOR                 
FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND WEAK GRADIENT FLOW.                 
1000-700 MB FLOW IS LIGHT-MDT SW NEXT TWO DAYS..THEN LIGHT SLY THE              
FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. RETURN TO CLIMO SUMMER SEA-BREEZE REGIME WITH               
LO-MID SCT AFTN POPS FLA (WITH ERN PANHANDLE COAST FAVORED) AND WDLY            
SCT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHO ISOLD PULSE SEVERE             
NOT IMPOSSIBLE..ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR SHEAR ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ARGUES             
AGAINST SAME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...UPR RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE BY LATE SUNDAY AND              
CONTS INTO MID-WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER N...ALIGNED W-E               
ACROSS SRN GA BORDER COUNTIES WITH LOCAL FLOW SHIFTING FROM W/SW TO             
SELY. NEXT UPR/SFC LOW MOVES E ACROSS GULF TO APPROACH LOCAL AREA               
LATE IN THE WEEK FOR INCREASING POPS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WITH LOCAL GRADIENTS ON WEAK SIDE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN             
AOB 10 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THRU THE WEEKEND.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE SO NO SHORT TERM FIRE WX CONCERNS.            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 68 89 69 89/ 10 30 20 30                                                    
PFN 73 87 73 87/ 10 20 20 30                                                    
DHN 68 89 71 88/ 05 20 20 30                                                    
ABY 68 89 69 89/ 10 20 20 30                                                    
VLD 69 89 70 88/ 20 30 20 30                                                    
CTY 70 89 69 88/ 10 40 20 30                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BLOCK                                                                           
____________________________________________________________________-           
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
930 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM             
NC COAST TO WEAK LOW OVER SC PIEDMONT TO UPPER TX COAST. WATER                  
VAPOR/IR COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER S/CNTRL KY W/ N-S            
TROUGH AXIS INTO NRN GULF. VORT LOBE EXTENDED FROM SE GA TO NE GULF.            
REGIONAL 88DS INDICATED A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THIS FEATURE                
MOVING E AT 30 KTS. IN ITS WAKE...NVA & MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING (BMX             
PWAT 1.37, JAN PWAT 1.03)...BUT FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BELOW 600 MB.             
LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS MUCH OF OUR CWFA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK             
FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. GIVEN ENERGY/LIFT EXITING TO THE E...FEEL               
SLIGHT RISK COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO GENERAL TSTM & WILL DROP SEVERE              
WORDING FROM ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTM OR            
TWO W/ WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY W/ LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES             
FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION INTERACTING W/ GULF SEA BREEZE.                  
ALSO...WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING & TWEAK SKY/POPS IN A FEW AREAS.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES S/SE OF COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING            
IN W/SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT. KEATON BEACH                  
RECORDED A NW WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AS LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES                  
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY COAST AT 13Z. RUC/MESOETA MAINTAIN A GENERAL               
W/SW WIND DIRECTION TODAY. WILL ADD CAVEAT FOR HIGHER WINDS/SEAS                
NEAR SHWRS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS E OF APALACHICOLA.                     
&&                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
257 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SATURDAY).                                             
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING. BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER THE ERN CWFA AS THE MEAN UPPER              
TROUGH POSITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA.            
SPC WENT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OUR            
CWFA...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER N AND WET                  
MICROBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER S. WILL MENTION                  
POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE ZONES. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                      
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR SATURDAY AGAIN KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR ERN            
CWFA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).                                         
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 88 67 90 68 / 40 20 30 20                                                   
PFN 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 20                                                   
DHN 87 67 89 69 / 30 10 20 20                                                   
ABY 88 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 20                                                   
VLD 87 68 89 68 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
CTY 87 70 88 69 / 40 20 40 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT/MAJ                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM             
NC COAST TO WEAK LOW OVER SC PIEDMONT TO UPPER TX COAST. WATER                  
VAPOR/IR COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER S/CNTRL KY W/ N-S            
TROUGH AXIS INTO NRN GULF. VORT LOBE EXTENDED FROM SE GA TO NE GULF.            
REGIONAL 88DS INDICATED A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THIS FEATURE                
MOVING E AT 30 KTS. IN ITS WAKE...NVA & MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING (BMX             
PWAT 1.37, JAN PWAT 1.03)...BUT FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BELOW 600 MB.             
LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS MUCH OF OUR CWFA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK             
FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. GIVEN ENERGY/LIFT EXITING TO THE E...FEEL               
SLIGHT RISK COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO GENERAL TSTM & WILL DROP SEVERE              
WORDING FROM ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTM OR            
TWO W/ WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY W/ LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES             
FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION INTERACTING W/ GULF SEA BREEZE.                  
ALSO...WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING & TWEAK SKY/POPS IN A FEW AREAS.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES S/SE OF COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING            
IN W/SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT. KEATON BEACH                  
RECORDED A NW WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AS LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES                  
ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY COAST AT 13Z. RUC/MESOETA MAINTAIN A GENERAL               
W/SW WIND DIRECTION TODAY. WILL ADD CAVEAT FOR HIGHER WINDS/SEAS                
NEAR SHWRS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS E OF APALACHICOLA.                     
&&                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
257 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SATURDAY).                                             
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING. BY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER THE ERN CWFA AS THE MEAN UPPER              
TROUGH POSITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA.            
SPC WENT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OUR            
CWFA...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER N AND WET                  
MICROBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER S. WILL MENTION                  
POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE ZONES. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                      
TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR SATURDAY AGAIN KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR ERN            
CWFA.                                                                           
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).                                         
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 88 67 90 68 / 40 20 30 20                                                   
PFN 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 20                                                   
DHN 87 67 89 69 / 30 10 20 20                                                   
ABY 88 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 20                                                   
VLD 87 68 89 68 / 50 20 30 20                                                   
CTY 87 70 88 69 / 40 20 40 20                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT/MAJ                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
920 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY...                                      
FOR SEVERAL RUNS DATING BACK TO LAST WEEK...GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TO            
A MID WEEK BREAK IN THE HEAT WAVE CORRESPONDING TO THE ONSET OF THE             
WET SEASON AND HAD ALSO BEEN SHOWING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR               
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. FROM             
THE LOOKS OF THINGS AS OF 12Z...IT HAS PRETTY MUCH NAILED BOTH THESE            
EVENTS. COMPARED TO THIS TIME THU...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER ECFL                
LOOKS EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER ECFL. H50             
VORT AXIS ANALYZED BY WATER VAPOR/RUC EXTENDING FROM NE GOMEX ACROSS            
NORTH FL AND UP THE SERN SEABOARD. LOCAL MEAN PWAT HAS INCREASED TO             
~1.8" WITH H50 TEMPS -9/-10C. MODIFYING FOR 91F/72F YIELDS ~2800J/KG            
CAPE WITH LI NR -8C AND WBZ ~13KFT. H85-H50 WINDS FCST TO BE SW AT              
15-17KT NR THE OCALA FOREST AND ~10KT NR LAKE OKEE BY THIS AFTN SO              
STEERING IS STRONGER THAN THU..AND DIRECTED ONCE AGAIN BACK TWD THE             
EAST COAST.                                                                     
LOOKING UPSTREAM...FOR (AT LEAST) THE 4TH DAY IN A ROW...THERE IS A             
RESIDUAL SQLN TO OUR NW...HOWEVER THIS ONE IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECFL...            
ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE JAX CWA...SO IT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE             
A DIRECT FACTOR. ALSO (SIMILAR TO WED/THU) ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO             
FIRE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE EAST OF APALACHEE BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW             
HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE H50 VORT LOBE                
POISED TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS AFTN.                             
GIVEN THE SFC-STEERING FLOW COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC              
CONSIDERATIONS...AS WELL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I REALLY             
HAVE NO QUALM WITH KICKING POPS UP TO AT LEAST 70% ALL ZONES (COVRG             
MAY BE A TAD LOWER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST) TODAY. IT SEEMS TO ME              
THAT OUTSIDE OF HAVING PWATS AOA 2.0"... YOU'D BE HARD PRESSED TO               
PRIME THE LOCAL AIR MASS A WHOLE LOT BETTER THAN THIS.                          
HWO/G-HWO HAS HIT LOCAL THREATS VERY WELL. ONLY ANTICIPATE A MINOR              
TWEAK OR TWO THERE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE              
STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ENE TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE             
WATERS BY LATE AFTN. THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS                 
GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS AND HAIL WITH STORMS. WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE              
5-10 KNOT RANGE THE LAST 24 HOURS AT BUOY 41009 WEAKER THAN MODEL               
PROGS. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SOUTHERLY (AND SE NEAR THE COAST WITH               
THE AFTN SEA BRZ) AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT WITH STRONGER             
GUSTS NEAR STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING.                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI                                                          
LONG TERM...VOLKMER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
147 PM MDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                          
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...OVER               
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN              
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY            
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS            
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD OF DIGGING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM.                 
CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY.             
TONIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST UTAH            
WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EJECT OVER THE HIGH                  
PLAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING                
OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND THEN                  
PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT                   
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA (CAPE AROUND 3000               
J/KG...BRN SHEAR AROUND 100...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE SHEAR AROUND                
150). THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. SEVERE                
THREAT EARLY MAY EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY LATE EVENING                 
GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT (0-6 KM MEAN WIND/RIGHT MOVERS LESS THAN              
10 KTS) AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR               
130% OF NORMAL AND DEW POINTS STEADILY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S).              
STORMS/MCS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.               
SATURDAY...ETA/RUC FORECASTING COOL FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE             
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH AND            
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM IN POST            
FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE             
FRONT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED NEAR THE                   
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
SUNDAY...MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN                 
EASTERN COLORADO IN UPSLOPE REGIME...WHERE MUCAPE CAPE VALUES                   
FORECAST BY ETA TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS.                 
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING               
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK 0-6KM MEAN            
WIND AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PREVENT THE STORMS FROM MAKING IT TO THE              
KANSAS STATE LINE BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME                
HEATING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                           
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND                
THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND                   
THURSDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. GFS AND            
ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE            
NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE CENTRAL HIGH            
PLAINS WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE LEE SIDE            
TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO                 
LOWER 30S CELSIUS SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH                    
THURSDAY. AS FOR CONVECTION...700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR               
ABOVE 15C THIS PERIOD...A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP.  MOISTURE AXIS                
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE                
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH LIFT                  
MAXIMIZED IN NEBRASKA ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THERE WILL ALSO BE                
OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP IN THE WEST...SO IF THE               
CAP DOES BREAK VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP. IN SUMMARY...LIMITED             
MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT THE                 
NOCTURNAL JET AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME            
THOSE FACTORS. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED            
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE POP SEEMS TO            
BE WARRANTED EACH DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER SAT/SAT                 
NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS.                                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL WNW FLOW ACROSS             
THE NRN CONUS WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY OVER                    
NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS OVER FAR ERN                  
MN/WRN WI AND WAS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME AC AND ENHANCED HIGH                
BASED AFTN CU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES              
REGION. TO THE W...A SFC TROF OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WAS SERVING AS A             
FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THERE.                                                
12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWINGING MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN              
SHORTWAVE SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO               
GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARD TO                
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. GOING FCST HAS SITUATION            
WELL IN HAND.                                                                   
TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT AC SPREADING OVER THE             
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE             
FROM COOLEST E TO WARMEST W AS IS TYPICAL WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH               
PRES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE VERY SIMILAR (40S E TO LOWER 50S FAR W)              
AND LOOK FINE.                                                                  
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES RATHER SHARPLY SE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH                   
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT                 
EVENING. MODELS LOOK REASONABLE IN BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO            
ABOUT AN INCH AND A THIRD OVER WRN UPPER MI BY SAT EVENING AS SWRLY             
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. 12Z ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS              
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ABOUT AN INCH AND A QUARTER OVER KS/OK READY              
TO ADVECT N. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DIGGING SHORTWAVE...DECENT DEEP               
LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT            
ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO SUPPORTS HIGH POPS WITH SYSTEM.             
HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LOW CATEGORICAL DURING PERIOD OF BEST             
FORCING SAT NIGHT. AS FOR START TIME...HEALTHY 850MB THETA-E                    
ADVECTION IS NOTED DURING THE DAY SAT AS THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO               
THE AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION MAY BE SUBTLE            
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ASSISTING CONVECTION IN ND AS IT SWINGS INTO THE            
AREA SAT AFTN AHEAD OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN                    
SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR LATE AFTN OVER THE W. ETA                 
MLCAPE (0-1KM) INCREASES TO 500-1000J/KG WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SBCAPE             
OBTAINED BY MODIFYING ETA FCST SOUNDINGS FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/54F.                
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A LITTLE LACKING (AROUND 30KT)...BUT STILL                  
SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR STORMS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA            
TO END FROM W TO E WITH FROPA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...BUT THERE            
IS SOME CAUTION IN TIMING FRONT. UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH             
NOTABLY SLOWER THAN GFS/ETA WHICH MAY NOT ONLY DELAY PCPN ONSET OVER            
THE E SAT NIGHT...BUT ALSO DELAY ENDING PCPN ON SUN. WILL NEED TO               
WATCH FOR TRENDS IN FUTURE ETA/GFS RUNS. WITH DEPARTURE OF                      
SYSTEM...EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT WX REST OF SUN/MON AS HIGH PRES                
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                              
TUE THRU FRI...GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE            
OVERALL PATTERN...ONE THAT IS DEFINITELY MORE SUMMERLIKE FOR THIS               
AREA WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND MAIN BAND             
OF WESTERLIES SHIFTING N. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE DETAILS                   
RELATED TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. 00Z               
UKMET IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST...PUSHING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU              
THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING WITH                
HIGH PRES NOSING S INTO THE AREA FOR WED. 12Z UKMET HAS BACKED OFF              
THIS SOLUTION. ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES HAVE                 
FRONT DROPPING THRU THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND REACHING SRN LWR MI BY               
WED EVENING. CANADIAN/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS                
OVER ERN CONUS PREVAILING AND ONLY ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO                
DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED. GFS THEN HANGS FRONT UP OVER             
THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE GFS HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES...             
WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WILL ALSO GIVE SOME             
WEIGHT TO ECWMF. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC TUE NIGHT/WED AS FRONT                
DRIFTS INTO THE AREA. WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY CONTINUING TO BUILD TO THE             
S...FRONT OVER THE UPPER LAKES MIGHT BECOME PRETTY ACTIVE THU/FRI AS            
PIECES OF ENERGY LIFT NE INTO UPPER MIDWEST FROM WRN TROF. AS FOR               
TEMPS...COULD GET QUITE WARM TUE AND WED THOUGH WED HIGHS WILL                  
DEPEND ON THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF FRONT. FOR NOW...80S SEEM LIKELY              
ALL AREAS BOTH DAYS EXCEPT CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. HUMIDITY WILL                
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TO GIVE A DEFINITE SUMMER FEEL. THU/FRI WILL            
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER (CLOSE TO NORMAL) AS FRONT SHOULD BE OVER OR JUST            
S OF THE AREA.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RAIN CHANCES TODAY IS MAIN CONCERN                                              
ANOTHER SUNSPLASHED MORNING UNDERWAY OVR CWA WITH STRIPE OF AC MID              
CLOUDS HANGING TO THE W FM N OF LK SUPERIOR INTO NE/ECNTRL MN.                  
CLOUDS ARE QUITE CONVECTIVE LOOKING DUE TO PROXIMITY TO H7                      
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT UPSTREAM RADAR/SFC OBS SHOWING NO PCPN            
AS WAS CASE YDY AFTN WITH THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE IN PROCESS OF                 
DIGGING MORE SE THAN E PER RUC/WV. RESULT IS LITTLE EWD PROGRESS OF             
MID CLOUD. H7 TEMPS BLO ZERO HAS BEEN GOOD SIGNAL WITH REGARD TO CU             
DEVELOPMENT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND CWA IS WITHIN HEART OF THIS                 
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AS CONVECTIVE          
TEMPS IN MID 60S ARE REACHED. RUC/ETA DEPICT SOME QPF OVR SW ZONES              
BTWN 18Z-00Z BUT THINK AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (PWATS ONLY AS HIGH AS            
0.65 AT INL THIS MORNING) AND LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN LLEVELS            
PROHIBITS ANY PCPN MENTION. LATEST 10KM RUC DOES SUGGEST SOME LK                
BREEZES THIS AFTN AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND LAKE/LAND TEMP                 
DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT. MIGHT HAVE A STRAY SHOWER/SPRINKLE              
POP UP DUE TO ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG LK BREEZE FRONT OVR W HALF                
BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS/ZONES             
ATTM. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS GOING FCST HIGHS OF 68-74 INLAND.               
WILL TWEAK MAX T GRIDS DOWN A BIT RIGHT ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS              
ONSHORE WIND KICKS IN.                                                          
JLA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
REST OF TONIGHT...LINGERING AC DEBRIS WILL GRDLY DISSAPPATE.                    
COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLDS/HIER PWAT AND A STEADY SW FLOW BTWN               
SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC HI AND MSLP FALLS IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF               
DIGGING SHRTWV NOW IN NW CAN WL HOLD TMINS QUITE A BIT HIER THAN                
THIS MRNG. PREFER HIER ETA MOS FCST LO TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN            
ZNS WHERE SW GRADIENT FLOW IS STRONGER FOR MORE OF THE NGT. LOWER               
TEMPS OVER THE E CLOSER TO DEPARTING HI/WEAKER GRADIENT/LOWER PWAT.             
FOR SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV NOW OVER NW CAN               
DIGGING SE TO NR INL BY 00Z SUN IN NW FLOW ALF... WITH ALL TRENDING             
FASTER IN GENERATING QPF OVER AT LEAST THE W 1/3 OF THE CWA BY 00Z              
SUN IN ADVANCE OF ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF HIER PWAT ARND            
1.33 INCH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK            
PROBLEMS...OTHER MODELS WHICH DO NOT FCST SIMILAR SCENARIO. VIGOROUS            
12-18HR HGT FALLS OF ARND 100M...DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC...AND             
H7 UVV ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE SAT/SAT NGT AS WELL AS SOME             
UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX ETA/GFS FCST IN ONTARIO AT 00Z               
ALONG WITH HEALTHY H85 THETA-E ADVCTN/DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN...               
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING ARRIVAL OF PCPN...AND GFS/ETA MOS                
POPS HI CHC/LIKELY ALL WARRANT MENTION OF POPS OVER AT LEAST THE W              
LATE IN THE AFTN. MODIFIED ETA FCST SDNGS ON SAT AFTN FOR IWD FOR               
SFC T/TD OF 71/55 AND H5 TEMP OF -14C YIELDS CAPE OF ONLY ABOUT 490             
J/KG. BUT WL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSRA GIVEN DIURNAL MAX HTG TIME...              
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/ DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN AND POTENTIAL              
FOR LOWER H5 TEMP (AS INDICATED BY NGM WITH -16C) WITH VIGOROUS DPVA            
IN THIS NW FLOW ALF. THIS PCPN WL SPREAD W-E SAT NGT AS SHRTWV/                 
DYNAMICS/SFC LO AND ATTENDANT COLD FNT PROGGED TO SHIFT E...THEN END            
OVER THE W OVERNGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DRIER AIR IN THE NW FLOW            
BEHIND THE SFC LO/COLD FNT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SAT NGT               
GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS. DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR SUN ONCE LINGERING             
SHRA DEPART ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI                 
PRES. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS FCST H85 TEMPS ON SUN GIVEN STRENGTH            
OF SHRTWV WITH TREND TOWARD LOWER GFS MOS TMAX IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE            
AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LO            
PRES.                                                                           
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SFC TROF ISN'T MAKING MUCH EWD PROGRESS AND IS STILL              
OUT IN THE CENTRAL DAKS. A WEAK WMFNT EXTENDS E ALG THE ND/SD                   
BORDER. TSTMS CONTINUE BUT HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT. A FEW CELLS ARE             
TRYING TO FIRE ALNG THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WMFNT IN W-C MN SW OF              
AXN. ANOTHER AREA IS CONTINUING TO SIMMER IN ND CLOSE TO THE                    
CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A POCKET OF DVNGC IS NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC.             
FOR THE EVENING FCST WE RAISED THE TEMPS IN OUR WRN CWA DUE TO                  
CLOUDS AND WM AIR ADVTCN. OTHERWISE, WE MERELY TIMED THE CLOUDS AND             
PCPN AS WELL AS WE COULD. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                              
&&                                                                              
.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
945 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBLE UPDATE TO LATE MORNING.                                 
EXPECT SOME SUN TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH BEFORE NOON. PREFER A NEAR               
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY SIMILAR TO THE RUC MODEL.             
SEE HIGHS NEAR 83 IN THE SOUTH. IN THE NORTH CAN NOT RULE OUT A                 
LITTLE SUN AND AFTERNOON FORECAST TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF              
DEGREES LOW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS AREA.                               
REASONABLE HELICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND A SMALL THREAT FOR A           
TORNADO. TO THE SOUTH THREAT LOOKS TO BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RLH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
924 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL WAVE CENTERED OVER               
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.  KILN SHOWS PRECIP SHIELD JUST GRAZING LEWIS                
COUNTY.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH                
INVERTED TROF INTO EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA.                      
LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING FROM WESTERN KY TO                     
SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING TO OUR EAST                  
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A SHARP DELINEATION BETWEEN RAIN              
AND NO RAIN...SIMILAR TO A COLD SEASON SYSTEM.  THIS DELINEATION                
WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR EASTERN FA.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN             
HAND.                                                                           
UPDATE ALREADY SENT TO TWEAK POPS IN THE TRI-STATE AND RESOLVE                  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 TIPTON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
950 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 0130Z...            
BUT KGSP RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOOKING AT WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 00Z RUC...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME WEAK                  
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO THE               
NORTH. MOST RECENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE TO WORK               
WITH ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. WILL RETAIN A LOW             
CHANCE POP UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE            
EAST THEREAFTER. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO ON               
THE COOL SIDE AND THAT MINOR ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
ISSUED AT 215 PM                                                                
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
UPPER LOW OVER FAR E KY MOVG INTO WV-VA AND TRACKING SLOWLY NE. WEAK            
SFC FRONT LIES ACROSS PIEDMONT ALONG S BORDER CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO            
MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY E. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING WITH EARLIER              
CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS CONT INTO THIS EVE WITH            
STROGER STORMS E OF AREA. UPPER TROF MOVES E TONIGHT AND LOW LEVELS             
DRY OUT FOR SAT. ON SUN HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO                
DROP SE AND BRUSH N CWA. MOISTURE IS A BIT SPARSE SUN THOUGH AND ETA            
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO BE CAPPED BY WARM AIR IN THE MID                   
LEVELS...COULD STILL SEE ISOLD AFTN-EVE CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS.                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POINT TOWARD CHANCE            
SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR MON AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER MTNS SLIGHTLY.                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
RIDGE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.            
PER NCEP/S MANUAL PROGS AND THE 00 UTC GFS...SFC FRONT WL BE                    
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TUE THROUGH                 
THU...WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT BY LATE THU INTO FRI. ALOFT...A                
WEAK SHORT WAVE WL BECOME ORPHANED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SRN MID                   
ATLANTIC STATES TUE AS HGHTS RISE QUICKLY TO ITS N. A PERSISTENT                
AXIS OF HIGH LAYER RH VALUES AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES             
WILL EXIST S OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS               
BOTH DAYS. APPEARS THAT WE MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE THU. HOWEVER...PER              
HPC/S PCPN NUMBERS AND TO AGREE WITH MOST OF THE NEIGHBORS...WL KEEP            
CHANCE POPS IN THE ZONES. BY FRI SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH A              
RESULTANT INCREASE IN GFS RH VALUES. THEREFORE...WL ONCE AGAIN CARRY            
AN AFTN POP NEXT FRI.                                                           
RB/BPM                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
840 PM MDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND              
NORTHWEST WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH              
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RUC STILL             
INDICATING STRONG LIFT OVER THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CHANGED             
WORDING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                       
&&                                                                              
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1111 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
1111 PM UPDATE.  UPDATED ZONES TO DROP SVR TSTM WATCH.  STORMS IN NW            
TX HAVE ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF N TEXAS            
IN TWO TO THREE HOURS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER.                                    
&&                                                                              
.740 PM PUBLIC UPDATE.  ZONES UPDATED FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM               
WATCH.  59                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE.  RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING             
AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND                
LOWERED POPS SOUTH.  STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP                 
SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS.  THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO            
NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  59                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW            
OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT               
FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR                
OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER               
THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR             
TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR              
SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO.             
THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU              
05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR                 
CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY            
NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W                 
ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME                 
HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/              
&&                                                                              
.PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                      
 406 PM CDT                                                                     
SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS                  
WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY            
NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A             
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY             
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                                    
IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN             
HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT                 
APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT.  FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL             
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT            
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE            
GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN              
URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT              
AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE             
FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
WACO, TX               70  89  71  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
PARIS, TX              66  80  68  85 /  60  50  20  30                         
DENTON, TX             68  86  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
MCKINNEY, TX           67  84  69  86 /  60  50  20  30                         
DALLAS, TX             68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TERRELL, TX            67  85  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
CORSICANA, TX          68  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TEMPLE, TX             70  89  72  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES                
TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121...                 
TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193...                 
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257...                 
TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367...                 
TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497...                 
TXC503.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
740 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.740 PM PUBLIC UPDATE.  ZONES UPDATED FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM               
WATCH.  59                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE.  RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING             
AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND                
LOWERED POPS SOUTH.  STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP                 
SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS.  THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO            
NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  59                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW            
OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT               
FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR                
OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER               
THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR             
TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR              
SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO.             
THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU              
05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR                 
CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY            
NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W                 
ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME                 
HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/              
&&                                                                              
.PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                      
 406 PM CDT                                                                     
SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS                  
WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY            
NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A             
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY             
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                                    
IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN             
HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT                 
APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT.  FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL             
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT            
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE            
GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN              
URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT              
AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE             
FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
WACO, TX               70  89  71  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
PARIS, TX              66  80  68  85 /  60  50  20  30                         
DENTON, TX             68  86  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
MCKINNEY, TX           67  84  69  86 /  60  50  20  30                         
DALLAS, TX             68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TERRELL, TX            67  85  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
CORSICANA, TX          68  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TEMPLE, TX             70  89  72  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES                
TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121...                 
TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193...                 
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257...                 
TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367...                 
TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497...                 
TXC503.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
620 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE.  RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING             
AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND                
LOWERED POPS SOUTH.  STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP                 
SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS.  THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO            
NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  59                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW            
OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT               
FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR                
OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER               
THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR             
TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR              
SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO.             
THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU              
05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR                 
CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY            
NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W                 
ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME                 
HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/              
&&                                                                              
.PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                      
 406 PM CDT                                                                     
SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS                  
WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY            
NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A             
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY             
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                                    
IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN             
HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT                 
APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT.  FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL             
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT            
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE            
GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN              
URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT              
AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE             
FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
WACO, TX               70  89  71  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
PARIS, TX              66  80  68  85 /  60  50  20  30                         
DENTON, TX             68  86  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
MCKINNEY, TX           67  84  69  86 /  60  50  20  30                         
DALLAS, TX             68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TERRELL, TX            67  85  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
CORSICANA, TX          68  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TEMPLE, TX             70  89  72  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES                
TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121...                 
TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193...                 
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257...                 
TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367...                 
TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497...                 
TXC503.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
545 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW            
OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT               
FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR                
OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER               
THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR             
TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR              
SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO.             
THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU              
05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR                 
CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY            
NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W                 
ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME                 
HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/              
&&                                                                              
.PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                      
 406 PM CDT                                                                     
SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS                  
WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY            
NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A             
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY             
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.                                                    
IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN             
HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT                 
APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT.  FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL             
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT            
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE            
GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN              
URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS            
EVENING.                                                                        
TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT              
AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE             
FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
WACO, TX               70  89  71  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
PARIS, TX              66  80  68  85 /  60  50  20  30                         
DENTON, TX             68  86  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
MCKINNEY, TX           67  84  69  86 /  60  50  20  30                         
DALLAS, TX             68  86  70  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TERRELL, TX            67  85  70  86 /  60  40  20  30                         
CORSICANA, TX          68  86  71  87 /  60  40  20  30                         
TEMPLE, TX             70  89  72  90 /  40  30  20  30                         
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES                
TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121...                 
TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193...                 
TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257...                 
TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367...                 
TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497...                 
TXC503.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
42                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
500 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...SCT RW AND A FEW TRWS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SEA                  
BREEZE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPR              
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR              
70. THIS IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN WRN AREAS               
AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO SPREAD               
NORTH TOWARDS THE LRD REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL                    
THEREFORE UPDATE IN INCREASE POPS IN WRN AREAS THIS EVENING.                    
ALSO...A STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING SOUTH OF FTW ALONG THE OLD                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. IF THIS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP               
INTO A GOOD MCS...IT SHOULD MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST               
ACCORDING TO CORFIDI VECTORS AND AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND MESO                
ETA. WILL NOT RAISE POPS IN THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION YET...BUT MAY            
DO SO IN A LATER UPDATE IT CONVECTION ORGANIZES BETTER TO THE NORTH.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE VICTORIA              
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. ISOLATED              
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER SOUTH OF VICTORIA AND SLIM CHANCE WILL             
EXIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID             
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LATEST ETA               
MODEL DEPICTS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS              
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NORTH OF              
ABILENE. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS SOUTHEAST TO             
NORTH OF THE VICTORIA AREA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO               
INCREASE IN SIZE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH            
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THE EXTREME                  
NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE                
ACTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE               
POP FOR NORTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS                  
SATURDAY.                                                                       
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL SEE A               
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BY THE AFTERNOON.            
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS                 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SATURDAY              
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY MORNING.               
THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO              
SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY. WILL GO NEAR MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SATURDAY               
AND NO POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.                                        
LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THRU FRIDAY)...NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE                   
EXTENDED PERIODS.  PATTERN CHANCE IS EXPECTED AS H5 RIDGING AND                 
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOWS SIGNS OF ENDING AS RIDGE SHIFTS OVER             
THE EASTERN CONUS.  MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS             
ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD LEAVE THE CWA IN A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT STATE            
ON SUNDAY...WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES.  WITH LITTLE TO NO              
CAP AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE               
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF             
ZONES AT THIS TIME.  SAME GOES FOR MONDAY AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES              
ARE CONCERNED.  DO NOT THINK THAT POSSIBILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO                 
MENTION BUT WILL SHOW THE 10 POPS IN THE GRIDS.  THE FORECAST GETS              
VERY INTERESTING BY TUESDAY.  PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY            
THIS TIME AS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE             
BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE H5 TROUGH DIGS INTO THE            
WESTERN CONUS.  MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING              
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND AFFECTING SOUTH TEXAS.  TIMING IS            
GOING TO BE TRICKY.  RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS BY            
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WILL NOT                
RAISE CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE             
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.                                                 
CANADIAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH GRAB ON TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT               
DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE               
PULLS THE SYSTEM ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE                        
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.  ETA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF PICKING THIS SYSTEM            
UP AND SLOWLY SPINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.  WITHOUT MORE CONSENSUS               
AND BETTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO CHANGE PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST TOO MUCH.  WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF                   
GUIDANCE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD                 
PROHIBIT TOO MUCH INSOLATION.  THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE              
TO NORMAL.  HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SCENARIO                 
ALTHOUGH A LOT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI  75  93 76  90 76 / 10 10 05 10 10                               
VICTORIA        73  92 74  92 74 / 20 20 05 10 10                               
LAREDO          77 103 77 100 77 / 30 05 05 10 05                               
ALICE           74  97 75  96 74 / 10 10 05 10 10                               
ROCKPORT        78  90 78  89 77 / 20 10 05 10 10                               
COTULLA         73 101 74  96 76 / 10 05 05 10 05                               
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJG...UPDATE                                                                    
89/TMT...SHORT-TERM                                                             
94/MJ...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1020 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE             
COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED A             
LITTLE NORTH TO ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO              
AND HOUSTON. WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR             
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE             
BOUNDARY ACCORDING TO LATEST ETA SOUNDINGS. ETA SHOWS PWATS NEAR                
1.85 INCHES NEAR VICTORIA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED T-STORMS             
TO FIRE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES              
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WEAK MID TO             
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.                
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RUC/ETA SHOWING CAPES FROM              
3000-3500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX FROM -8 TO -10 DEGREES C THIS                   
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY HIGH WET               
BULB ZERO HEIGHT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.              
FARTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO                    
SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR INLAND SECTIONS              
OF THE COASTAL BEND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI  92 75  92 76  90 / 20 20 20 05 10                               
VICTORIA        92 71  92 74  92 / 40 30 30 05 10                               
LAREDO         101 77 102 77 102 / 20 20 10 05 10                               
ALICE           95 74  97 75  97 / 30 20 20 05 10                               
ROCKPORT        88 75  89 78  89 / 20 30 30 05 10                               
COTULLA         97 73 100 74 100 / 20 20 10 05 10                               
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
89/TMT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
953 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FA IN BTWN SYS TDA WITH DRY NW FLOW ALF AND SFC HI PRES IN CNTRL.               
VIS SATL SHWS SOME LINGERING SC ACRS NE VT IN AREA OF COOLER MID                
LVL TEMPS.  TMPS ALF WRM TDA SO XPCT DECRG CLDS DURG AFTN.  12Z                 
RAOBS RATHER DRY AND ONLY XPCT MINIMAL CU DEVT ELSW SO MOSUNNY                  
LOOKS GOOD. CRNT FCST TMPS NR 70 ALSO LOOKS GOOD.  UPDATED NE                   
KINGDM FOR MORE MRNG CLDS THEN MOSUNNY AFTN.                                    
&&                                                                              
KJC                                                                             
*** PREV DISCUSSION ***                                                         
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON TODAY THRU SAT. STORM            
SYS TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TODAY THRU SUN. CF TO MOVE             
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN. S/W TO MOVE UP ACRS THE FA FROM THE           
SW ON SAT NITE AND EARLY ON SUN.                                                
00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE                    
M60S-L70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS W-NW AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN             
THE L-M70S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON               
THIS DATA. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT HE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS           
MOSUNNY SKIES WITH NO PCPN ACRS THE FA TODAY.                                   
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WK WAA FOR TONITE             
THRU SUN. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATER           
TONITE AND ON SAT/SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA AGAIN            
ON SAT THRU SUN. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS                  
AFTERNOON THRU SAT. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE SRN TIER ZONES              
LATE ON SAT AND THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN. PW VALUES ACRS THE           
FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-0.8" ON SAT AND AROUND AN INCH ON SAT NITE/SUN.               
IR SAT PIX SHOW SOME LOW CLDS ACRS PARTS OF VT ATTM. WILL PLAN ON               
HANDLING ANY CLDS/FG WITH THE STF EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONT TO                
MENTION DRY WX TODAY AND TONITE. HAVE GENERALLY SCALED BACK ON POPS             
FOR THE SAT THRU SUN TIME-FRAME AS THE NEXT SYS APPEARS TO BE A LIL             
SLOWER AND DESTINED TO MAYBE AFFECT MOSTLY REGIONS TO OUR SOUTH AND             
EAST. LIKELY POPS ACRS SRN VT ON SAT NITE STILL SEEM OK...BUT CHC               
POPS SHOULD DO IT OTRW.                                                         
T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE M30S-M40S TONITE AND BASICALLY 40-50F ON SAT             
NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M70S ON SAT AND LOOK A TAD WARM...BUT              
HAVE GENERALLY RAISED TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SAT FCST WITH LESS                
CLDS/PCPN EXPECTED THEN. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCT FROST ACRS THE NRN            
ADIRONDACKS FOR TONITE AND LET THE DAY-SHIFT HAVE A CRACK AT ISSUING            
ANY FROST HEADLINES. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR                
NOW.                                                                            
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ATTM. FINAL ZFP BY           
4 AM.                                                                           
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
330 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN...                        
...FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT TO FL WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT...BROAD 500MB TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES             
AND GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS PUT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS                 
STILL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. 40KM RUC ANALYSIS                 
PLACED AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO POISED TO             
MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN            
AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF/BIG BEND SECTION AND              
AREA NWS DOPPLER RADARS WERE DETECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING                
ONSHORE ASSOCD WITH THIS S/W TROUGH.                                            
TODAY/TONIGHT...SERIES OF VORT MAXES/MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SWING            
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER 500MB TROUGH THAT STILL IS PARKED                
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FORECASTS SHOW A GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA            
BREEZE COLLISION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO ORANGE COUNTY SOUTH TO LAKE             
OKEECHOBEE. STEERING WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...              
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND LESS THE FURTHER SOUTH            
ONE GOES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER.../1.7            
TO 1.8 INCHES/ ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN/SMALL              
STREAM FLOODING POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN.                                           
WE EXPECT TO GO INTO WARNING OPERATIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS                 
CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH H5 TEMPS REMAINING AT -9C COMBINES WITH            
WEAK INHIBITION...SFC HEATING AND MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATM TO              
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY.                   
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR INVOF MESOSCALE (SEA/LAKE BREEZE)                   
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED             
BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR MULTIPLE BOUNDARY                  
MERGERS. AREAS LEAST FAVORED FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE MARTIN/ST LUCIE            
COASTS WITH 40% CHANCE.                                                         
SUN...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TO BETWEEN LAKE                     
OKEECHOBEE AND THE CAPE. STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS            
TOWARD THE N/NE...ALLOWING AFTN STORMS TO PUSH BACK TO THE EAST                 
COAST..ESP THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF                 
STORMS SHOULD FINALLY SETTLE BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS MID LEVEL               
TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM AND PCP WATER VALUES BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS MEANS             
50% INTERIOR/NORTH COAST AND 40% CENTRAL/SOUTH COAST.                           
MON-WED...LL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...CLEARING OUR FA BY LATE              
TUE. UPPER HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE AREA...REBUILDING HEIGHTS AND                 
WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN              
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INCREASINGLY DEEP SE              
FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FOCUS AFTN/EVE                    
CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA RATHER               
THAN THE EAST SIDE BY TUE AND WED. ALTHOUGH THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL              
PROTECT EAST COAST FROM AFTN/EVE STORMS...WILL CALL FOR ISOLATED                
COASTAL SHOWERS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS DURING THE                    
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TUE-THU.                   
THU-FRI...UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS GFS PROGS NEXT UPPER LVL               
S/W TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. WILL INCREASE POPS BACK TO            
CLIMO RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHERLY               
FRI AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT PROGD UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WILL BE STRONG TO                
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA. SOME STORMS WILL                 
CONTAIN WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KTS...HAIL AND FREQUENT TO                   
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESP NORTH OF FPR INLET. ONSHORE FLOW              
WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                              
DAB  89  71  87  71 /  60  40  50  20                                           
MCO  90  71  90  71 /  60  40  50  20                                           
MLB  89  72  87  72 /  60  30  40  20                                           
VRB  89  72  87  72 /  50  30  40  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WIMMER                                                             
LONG TERM....KELLY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
311 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND                  
TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE                  
NORTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG WITH SEVERAL             
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING            
ON TO THE DOMINANT SHORTWAVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO               
MASK WEAK SFC TROUGH...ONE PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING               
THROUGH KFSD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION. FEEL THE GFS AND            
RUC HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE                  
PASSING JUST SW AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER PASSING TO THE                
NORTH. AS ALLUDED TO LAST NIGHT...THIS WOULD SUGGEST PART OF THE                
FORECAST AREA TO BE SPLIT. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST                
THIS AS WELL WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHWEST WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE EAST                
WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES TONIGHT. WILL DECREASE POPS            
IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW.              
CLOUD COVER TODAY COMBINED WITH LITTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC              
TROUGH SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY LOW. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT            
OF THE QUESTION...BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MARGINAL.                      
SUNDAY WILL BRING A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND THEN THE FIRST REAL                 
TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK              
AS VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE STATE. LITTLE OR NO             
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DONAVON                                                                         
EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS              
PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDDSM TO AFDDMX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL                 
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE                    
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS                  
NAMERICA. SRN BRANCH DOMINATES MOST OF CONUS...WITH WNW FLOW ALF                
OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING ACRS THE E.             
NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF               
RDG IN WRN CAN. SEVERAL SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS                
LARGER SCALE FLOW. THE ONE CLOSEST TO THE CWA IS OVER WI AND IS                 
RATHER SUBTLE...WITH IMPACTS LIMITED BY DRY/STABLE AIR SHOWN ON 00Z             
GRB SDNG (00Z KINX 7) AND SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW ACRS THE GRT LKS ON WRN             
FLANK OF SFC RDG OVER SE ONTARIO. SCT-BKN AC LINGERING OVER THE W               
HALF OF FA...DEBRIS FM ELEVATED CU THAT FORMED UNDER H7 THERMAL TROF            
YDAY AFTN. SKIES MOCLR TO THE E. FAIRLY HEALTHY SHRTWV IN SRN BRANCH            
FLOW NOTED MOVING INTO ND FRI EVNG...AND THIS SHRTWV TRIGGERING                 
QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TSRA FM NR LK WINNIPEG S THRU THE DAKOTAS ALG               
ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF AND UNDER H5 THERMAL TROF (00Z TEMP ARND              
-15C)/AXIS OF HIER PWAT 1.00-1.25 INCHES. 00Z ABR SDNG SHOWS STEEP              
LAPSE RATES THRU THE ENTIRE TROP. A POTENT SHRTWV WITH 00Z H5 TEMP              
DOWN TO -21C AT CYQD NOTED IN NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER NRN MANITOBA.                
DARKENING NOTED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON WV IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE             
OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYS. BUT ND SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF            
MAJORITY OF MSTR INFLOW TO THIS MORE SYS.                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TIMING/COVG/INTENSITY              
OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS.                                  
TDAY WL START OFF ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH ACYC FLOW/DRY AIRMASS ON               
THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HI STILL DOMINATING. BUT ETA/NGM/GFS SHOW             
ND SHRTWV REACHING WRN LK SUP BY 18Z AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/H85-5                
QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA THEN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF             
APRCHG THE WRN COUNTIES ARND 00Z. NGM AND ETA ESPECIALLY FCST                   
VIGOROUS H85 THETA-E ADVCTN (ETA SHOWS H85 WINDS 30-35KT) UNDER WEAK            
H5 CAD (RELATIVELY LGT WNDS AT H5 ARND 30KT) IN VEERING WIND                    
PROFILE. HOWEVER...ALL 3 MODELS SHOW H85-5 LAPSE RATES REACHING ONLY            
ARND 6.0C/KM BY 18Z-24Z SAT. ETA FCST SDNGS FOR IWD-IMT BEFORE                  
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION KICKS IN FOR SFC T/TD 72/55 (55 DWPT MAY            
BE ON THE HI SIDE GIVEN VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED ON 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS              
AND IN AIRMASS SOURCE RGN OVER SRN WI) YIELD ONLY UP TO 550 J/KG.               
CONSIDERING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY ARND 30KT WITH LTL VERTICAL SHEAR             
SFC-H5...AND WITH FAIRLY MODEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY THINK SPC               
DESIGNATION OF FA IN SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSRA A BIT OVERDONE EVEN                 
THOUGH WBZ FCST IN FVRBL 9K FT RANGE. BUT FCST TSRA STILL LOOK ON               
TARGET GIVEN VIGOROUS DYNAMICS/MAX SOLAR HTG TIME EVEN IF                       
INSTABILITY/SHEAR NOT THE BEST. ETA/NGM MOS SHOW VERY SML CHC FOR               
SVR TSRA EVEN THOUGH TSRA CHC FAIRLY HI. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO                 
LIKELY OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN...WITH CHC POPS ACRS THE                    
CNTRL...EVEN THOUGH ETA INDICATES ONTARIO JET MAX WL BE TOO FAR N               
FOR UPR DVGC IN RRQ TO IMPACT CWA (GFS STILL FCSTS THIS FEATURE                 
CLOSE ENUF).                                                                    
PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE ERN ZNS SAT EVNG AS ND SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD.               
ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E BY MIDNGT SAT NGT WL LIKELY            
TAKE THE DEEPER MSTR WITH IT...STRONGER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IN NRN                
MANITOBA FCST TO DIG TOWARD NW LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AND PROLONG DPVA/              
HGT FALLS/PCPN CHCS. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS VIGOROUS DRYING/H85-5                   
QVECTOR DVGC DVLPG OVRNGT...MODEL HANGS ON TO H7-3 QVECTOR DVGC/DPVA            
AND SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF ACCOMPANYING JET MAX ALMOST AS                
LONG AS GFS. SO WL FOLLOW SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS ON DEPARTURE OF              
SYS SAT NGT...WITH CHC POPS LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY SUN                 
MRNG. LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT TSRA CHCS FARTHER E              
AFTER SUNSET...BUT VIGOROUS DYNAMICS WL STILL SUSTAIN ISOLD TSRA.               
AFTER DEPARTURE OF ANY LINGERING SHRA FM THE ERN ZNS SUN MRNG... THE            
WX WL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW AND DRIER AIR...FIRST            
ALF THEN AT THE SFC. ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW STEEP LLVL LAPSE              
RATES ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS INTO THE AFTN...DRYING ALF UNDER UPR                
CNVGC IN RIGHT EXIT OF CNDN JET MAX WL PRECLUDE THE DVLPMNT OF ANY              
INSTABILITY SHRA (EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ETA SHOWS KINX DROPPING TO ARND            
15 OVER THE SRN TIER). BOTH GFS/ETA FCST H85 TEMPS ACRS THE SRN TIER            
ZNS REMAINING ARND 11C THRU THE DAY...WHICH SUPPORTS TMAX WELL INTO             
THE 70S TO NR 80 ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH NW WIND.              
INTENSE SFC HTG INLAND AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL SUPPORT LK                
BREEZE FORMATION...SO LOCATIONS NR THE LKS WL BE COOLER.                        
GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A RETURN SW FLOW AT H85 BACK ON SUN             
NGT AND EVEN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF. CONSIDERING QUICKLY RISING HGTS            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV...STALLING SFC FNT NOT TOO FAR S OF                 
FA...AND UKMET/CNDN MODEL FCST OF A SIMILAR SCENARIO (CNDN GENERATES            
SOME LGT QPF NR THE WI BORDER AS WELL)...HAVE OPTED TO TREND TOWARD             
THE GFS FCST. HOWEVER...THINK AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY              
PCPN...JUST SOME PTCHY CLD (PER THE UKMET). TRENDED TOWARD HIER GFS             
MOS FCST TMINS WITH FASTER MSTR RETURN THAN INDICATED BY THE NGM/               
ETA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG AS SUGGESTED BY GFS MOS WITH               
LLVL MSTR RETURN UNDER UPR LVL DRYING. MON WL BE A WARMER DAY WITH              
RETURN SW FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS DOWNSTREAM OF HGT FALLS IN THE PAC             
NW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMP PROGGED TO RISE NR 15C...GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW              
THIS WARMING WL CREATE CAP UNDER QUICKLY RISING H5 HGTS TO ARND                 
580DM BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY ACCAS WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE              
RATES ABV CAP. MIXING TO H85 ON ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX NR 77            
OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING...WHICH WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED              
NR LK MI AND OVER THE KEWEENAW IN SE SFC FLOW.                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
330 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS            
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NO PCPN IS                   
EXPECTED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG            
THE GULF COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH             
OF TODAY BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL               
RETURN TO OUR WESTERN ZONES/PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE                     
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE               
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES             
OVER THE AREA. WL INCREASE POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY               
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED                
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...WL             
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS                  
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS               
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE BERMUDA             
HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LIMIT POPS            
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                          
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL                
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESULT            
IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                
RAIN WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EACH EVENING DUE TO SEA BREEZE               
TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY               
WHILE WARM TROPICAL AIR WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVE NORTH ACROSS               
THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER THAN NORMAL               
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       87  67  86  69 /  00  20  50  30                                  
MERIDIAN      87  66  86  68 /  00  20  40  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
141 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LL MASS FLUX WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
WEDGE POKING IN FM THE W AIDING CONVN THIS AM...PARTICULARLY ACRS               
NC KS AND OVR NE SANDHILLS. FCST DILEMMA LIES W/EVOLUTION OF                    
SANDHILLS CONV CLUSTER THROUGH THIS AM AND POTENTIAL FOR                        
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG ADV WK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING OUT OF                
THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCN/W LEAD TROF.                                              
GIVEN STEEP EML SPREADING OUT OVERTOP CWA THIS AM AND DEEP LL MSTR              
PLUME IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON FOR DVLPG MCS OVR THE SANDHILLS OR               
COMING OUT OF SW SD TO DECAY GIVEN FVRBL LLJ. EXTRAPOLATION PER 850-            
300MB THICKNESSES CLIPS NE CORNER OF CWA BTWN 9-12Z W/SANDHILLS                 
ACTIVITY AND THRU 18Z W/SD LEFT OVERS IN LINE W/SHRT TERM RUCII                 
PROGS. OTHERWISE SUSPECT KS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED THAT AREA BY             
12Z. AFTN CHCS RELEGATED TO DEGREE OF DIURNAL RECOVERY AND DIFFICULT            
TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HWVR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL WEAK ESP IN REGARD             
TO SUSTAINED CVRG ALG WK SFC BNDRY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN ENOUGH                       
DESTABILIZATION LIKE ETA PROGS...NO AT ALL OUT OF THE QN. FOR NOW               
WILL CONCENTRATE ON AM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL               
TRY REFINING AFT PD BUT TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHORT AS FOCUS               
SHIFTS QUICKLY INTO KS TONIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT PANS OUT.?                         
AFT THAT...WRN TROF/CNTRL US RIDGE DVLPMNT SIGNAL TORRID WEEK HERE.             
PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME NEEDED PRECIP THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST BUT              
SIGNAL MIXED AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. HWVR WARMING UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO              
FLIRT W/100 DEGREE READINGS ACRS THE SW QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MID               
WEEK W/90S ELSEWHERE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM                
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT                        
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:                               
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CR_PHASE1.HTM                         
$$                                                                              
T                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
405 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO              
THIS EVENING.  CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN                
DAKOTAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO               
PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON SURFACE WINDS...BUT APPEARS TO               
EXTEND FROM AROUND KBIS TO JUST WEST OF KPIR TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS            
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE UPPER WAVE            
OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH              
THE UPPER WAVE INTO MN AND WRN IA BY 00Z...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT              
WEAKENS AND HANGS BACK OVER EXTREME SERN SD.  WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL              
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THIS              
AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR TSRA TO REDEVELOP               
ALONG FRONT.  THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR                
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...TAPERING TO MORE                
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.  AS OF 08Z...               
ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY IN NRN NE             
AND SRN SD...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THESE MODELS A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY FOR            
TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF VALUES FOR TODAY.  AS FOR POSSIBILITY            
OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...              
WILL HAVE TO RELY ON INSTABILITY.  THIS GREATEST ALONG THE SURFACE              
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN AREA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO             
SEE APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT OUT BEST.  THINK SOUTHEAST WILL BE            
HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...KEEPING                
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMITING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL              
MENTION MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN HWO ALONG MAINLY EAST OF JAMES RIVER            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN JAMES RIVER AND I-29             
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
WILL LINGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE               
LOW LEVEL FRONT INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND                 
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE               
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.  850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 25C OVER THE               
SOUTHWEST CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20C OR A LITTLE WARMER            
IN THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN              
THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. GFS MAINTAINS THE             
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS                 
OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...SHOULD ALSO SEE VERY            
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.              
GET A PRETTY GOOD NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET GOING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND              
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH            
OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES 700MB TEMPS             
TO +12 TO +14C.  SO THINK ANY TSRA CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE             
AREA UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN PARTS              
OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST BRINGS              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND DID             
NOT REALLY MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PLACEMENT OR TIMING AT THIS TIME.                
NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 HACKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW FINALLY PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AS           
WIDESPREAD SHRA CONT TO SLOWLY TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ATTM. EXPECT           
AS DEEP RH/UVV GRDLY LIFT FARTHER N...AND 85H UPSLOPE ENDS WILL SEE             
MAJORITY OF SIG RAINFALL FADE THIS MORNING...AS BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA           
WRAP WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER SYSTEM EARLY ON. THUS PLAN TO CONT CHCY POPS         
MAINLY FAR N EARLY ON WITH CLOUDS TRICKY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE E AND DRY SLOT         
ACROSS THE S/SW. THINK OVERALL BECMG PC S/WRN SLOPES TO MAINLY CLDY NW          
AND A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN. NEXT WEAK S/W PER ETA TO ROTATE IN FROM            
THE NW LATE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING/INSTAB DESPITE DVLPG MID           
LEVEL CAP. APPEARS ANY HEATING ESPCLY OVER THE RIDGES ENOUGH TO SPARK           
ADDED LOW TOPPED SHRA WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP IN SLGT CHCS ALL           
BUT THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR          
HIGHS TO JUMP WHERE SUN GETS THRU WHILE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLOUDS ELSW.         
WITH ETA SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL WEDGING HOLDING OUT E WONT RAISE HIGHS           
MUCH FOR NOW EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WHERE PLAN TO NUDGE UP A CAT TO COVER.            
UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS OUT/WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING             
SOME WEAK SFC RIDGING TO DEVELOP TNGT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.          
MAY NEED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD EVENING SHRA PER VORT...OTRW PLAN TO GO            
DRY OVERNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG A GOOD BET LATE GIVEN LGT WINDS/WET             
GROUND. WAA MAKES A RETURN BEHIND EXITING RIDGE SUNDAY WITH MORE                
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS EDGING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. COULD AGAIN         
BE ISOLD SHRA RIDGES LATER SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MOIST BLYR BUT GIVEN             
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS WILL GO PC/DRY FOR NOW                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NEXT WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES SUNDAY NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING MON UPON          
MOVING INTO BUILDING SE 5H RIDGE. APPEARS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AGAIN A            
BIT SLOWER WITH BEST CHCS COMING DURING MAX HEATING MON...SO WILL CUT           
BACK CHCS SUNDAY NGT ESPCLY OUT E. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE            
DOMINATED BY OFFSHRE RIDGE WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS. CANADIAN AGAIN BASICALLY DRY TUE-FRI WHILE GFS              
SHOWING DAILY TSRA WITH BETTER CHCS LATE WEEK AS S/W ENERGY DENTS RIDGE         
A BIT. SINCE THE CANADIAN WAS TOO STRONG WITH RIDGE A WHILE BACK AND            
STILL WILL HAVE LOTS OF RH AROUND...THINK HARD TO CAP TSRA ESPCLY W SO          
PLAN TO STICK WITH DIURNAL CHC POPS AT THIS POINT. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE           
TO PC/WARM/HUMID FCST WITH TEMPS 75-80 W AND 80-85 E THRU THE EXTENDED.         
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
918 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CENTRAL FL MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH               
PWATS IN THE 1.7-1.8 RANGE AND STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE            
COLUMN FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MODEL PROGS ALSO SHOW H7-H5 STEERING            
FLOW FROM THE SW AT 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES AND 10                 
KNOTS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RUC/GFS SHOW VORT LOBE ACROSS THE NE                
GULF THAT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA BY LATE AFTN             
AS ANOTHER STRONGER S/W MOVES FROM MS TO GA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN               
HOURS. CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL WEST COAST WHICH              
PORTENDS AN ACTIVE DAY FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN.            
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZFP/GRIDS AND HWO THIS MORNING              
WITH STRONG TO SVR STORMS ALREADY MENTIONED IN HWO.                             
EXPECT EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SEA                 
BREEZE BY AROUND NOON AND WILL ALSO SEE ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY             
BY EARLY AFTN AS CURRENT CONVECTION AND WEST COAST SEA BRA ACTIVITY             
DEVELOPS. CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (BREVARD)               
WILL PROBABLY SEE STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WITH PEAK HEATING              
AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS TO THE NW AND THE DEVELOPING              
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORMS NEAR SHORE               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW NOTED             
AND MORE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT THAT               
STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NORTH.  LITTLE                
CHANGE EXCEPT TO ADD WINDS/SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS.                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VOLKMER                                                            
LONG TERM....LASCODY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS/CONVECTION AND TEMPS MAIN CONCERNS FOR UPDATE                            
WV LOOP AND ROABS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRYING TO PHASE OVR             
MN ATTM. BROAD AREA OF 150M+ HEIGHT FALLS AT H5 THIS MORNING FM                 
CNTRL CANADA INTO MN...WITH STRONG DARKENING ON WV LOOP IS NOSING               
INTO NW MN ATTM. RADAR FM KDLH AND SFC OBS SHOW SHIELD OF RAIN IS               
SPREADING INTO NW WI ATTM (JUST ABOUT TO KASX AS OF 1415Z). ALTHOUGH            
AIRMASS FARTHER E IS DRIER (PWAT AT GRB OF 0.72 AND A PALTRY 0.40 AT            
KAPX)...THE RAIN IS SHIFTING STEADILY EWD AS SHORTWAVE AND                      
ASSOCIATED DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/SLIGHT H3 DIVERGENCE PER RUC               
ENVELOP UPR LAKES. UPDATED GOGEBIC COUNTY EARLIER TO BRING PCPN IN              
THERE QUICKER...OTHERWISE AFTN DEVELOPING WORDING FOR SHRA/TS SHOWN             
IN GRIDS CURRENTLY IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TS UPSTEAM ATTM AS THICK AC                
DECK WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IS SPREADING QUICKLY E. LATEST RUC             
SOUNDINGS PICKING UP ON LIMITED INSOLATION AND THUS ARE VERY MEAGER             
WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES. MANAGED TO CONJUR UP 500 J/KG IN FAR                     
SW WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG FARTHER N AND E OF THERE. 0-6KM DEEP                 
LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 30KT NOT IDEAL FOR STRONG                       
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME TSMS AROUND DUE TO STRONG               
DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL COOLING...POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSMS APPEARS TO             
BE SLIM.                                                                        
WITH QUICKER INCREASING CLOUD TREND ALSO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN BY 3-5F              
IN W ZONES. LWR 70S FCST IN CNTRL/ERN ZONES SHOULD STILL HOLD AS                
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT               
HEATING UNTIL MID AFTN AT EARLIEST. DID NOT CHANGE ANY GRIDS BEYOND             
THIS AFTN. INTERESTING THAT 12Z ETA WHICH HAS GOOD HANDLE ON AREAL              
COVERAGE OF PCPN OVR MN ATTM...SHOWS RAIN ENDING EARLIER THAN                   
CURRENT FCST (IN THE EVENING W/BY MIDNIGHT CNTRL/BY DAYBREAK E).                
WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR UPSTREAM AHEAD OF             
SHORTWAVE THIS AFTN.                                                            
JLA                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TONIGHT...PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE ERN ZNS SAT EVNG AS ND SHRTWV                 
SHIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E BY MIDNGT SAT              
NGT WL LIKELY TAKE THE DEEPER MSTR WITH IT...STRONGER NRN BRANCH                
SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA FCST TO DIG TOWARD NW LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AND              
PROLONG DPVA/ HGT FALLS/PCPN CHCS. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS VIGOROUS                  
DRYING/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC DVLPG OVRNGT...MODEL HANGS ON TO H7-3                 
QVECTOR DVGC/DPVA AND SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF ACCOMPANYING JET            
MAX ALMOST AS LONG AS GFS. SO WL FOLLOW SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS ON             
DEPARTURE OF SYS SAT NGT...WITH CHC POPS LINGERING OVER THE E INTO              
EARLY SUN MRNG. LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT TSRA CHCS              
FARTHER E AFTER SUNSET...BUT VIGOROUS DYNAMICS WL STILL SUSTAIN                 
ISOLD TSRA.                                                                     
AFTER DEPARTURE OF ANY LINGERING SHRA FM THE ERN ZNS SUN MRNG... THE            
WX WL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW AND DRIER AIR...FIRST            
ALF THEN AT THE SFC. ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW STEEP LLVL LAPSE              
RATES ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS INTO THE AFTN...DRYING ALF UNDER UPR                
CNVGC IN RIGHT EXIT OF CNDN JET MAX WL PRECLUDE THE DVLPMNT OF ANY              
INSTABILITY SHRA (EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ETA SHOWS KINX DROPPING TO ARND            
15 OVER THE SRN TIER). BOTH GFS/ETA FCST H85 TEMPS ACRS THE SRN TIER            
ZNS REMAINING ARND 11C THRU THE DAY...WHICH SUPPORTS TMAX WELL INTO             
THE 70S TO NR 80 ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH NW WIND.              
INTENSE SFC HTG INLAND AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL SUPPORT LK                
BREEZE FORMATION...SO LOCATIONS NR THE LKS WL BE COOLER.                        
GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A RETURN SW FLOW AT H85 BACK ON SUN             
NGT AND EVEN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF. CONSIDERING QUICKLY RISING HGTS            
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV...STALLING SFC FNT NOT TOO FAR S OF                 
FA...AND UKMET/CNDN MODEL FCST OF A SIMILAR SCENARIO (CNDN GENERATES            
SOME LGT QPF NR THE WI BORDER AS WELL)...HAVE OPTED TO TREND TOWARD             
THE GFS FCST. HOWEVER...THINK AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY              
PCPN...JUST SOME PTCHY CLD (PER THE UKMET). TRENDED TOWARD HIER GFS             
MOS FCST TMINS WITH FASTER MSTR RETURN THAN INDICATED BY THE NGM/               
ETA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG AS SUGGESTED BY GFS MOS WITH               
LLVL MSTR RETURN UNDER UPR LVL DRYING. MON WL BE A WARMER DAY WITH              
RETURN SW FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS DOWNSTREAM OF HGT FALLS IN THE PAC             
NW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMP PROGGED TO RISE NR 15C...GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW              
THIS WARMING WL CREATE CAP UNDER QUICKLY RISING H5 HGTS TO ARND                 
580DM BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY ACCAS WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE              
RATES ABV CAP. MIXING TO H85 ON ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX NR 77            
OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING...WHICH WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED              
NR LK MI AND OVER THE KEWEENAW IN SE SFC FLOW.                                  
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
700 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.UPDATED DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDDS TO INCREASE CLOUD                
COVER AND POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND PARISHES THIS MORNING.                
CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI IS WORKING WITH JUST                
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN                 
CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA PARISHES. LOCAL RADARS HAVE THESE SHOWERS               
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH IS EXPECTED               
LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO...GOING FOR A THIRD RAOB THIS MORNING BUT              
DATA WILL LIKELY MISS THE CUTOFF.                                               
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS            
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH                 
LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NO PCPN IS                   
EXPECTED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG            
THE GULF COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH             
OF TODAY BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL               
RETURN TO OUR WESTERN ZONES/PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE                     
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE               
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES             
OVER THE AREA. WL INCREASE POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY               
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED                
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...WL             
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS                  
MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS               
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE BERMUDA             
HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LIMIT POPS            
OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                          
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL                
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESULT            
IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR                
RAIN WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EACH EVENING DUE TO SEA BREEZE               
TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY               
WHILE WARM TROPICAL AIR WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVE NORTH ACROSS               
THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER THAN NORMAL               
CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       87  67  86  69 /  00  20  50  30                                  
MERIDIAN      87  66  86  68 /  00  20  40  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
930 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH CHS THE PAST FEW              
HOURS AS WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE NW.  STRATUS DECK HAS FOLLOWED THE            
FRONT SOUTH AND NOW LIES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SC.  SATELLITE                 
SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE GA COAST...BUT                
STRATUS SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.  MODELS                   
INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT WILL WASH OUT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS                        
RE-ESTABLISH THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE                   
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BASED ON THE UNSTABLE CHS SOUNDING FROM THIS              
MORNING.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL FOCUS.  THE LOW STRATUS DECK MAY                
ALLOW FOR A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AS WELL.  WATER VAPOR                 
IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE LATEST RUC AND ETA IN SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL S/W            
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP               
THE CHC POPS ONGOING WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE.              
TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK FINE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF               
AMZ350 BUT IT SHOULDNT LAST LONG...MAYBE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  FOR             
THE MOST PART THE COASTAL LOOKS GOOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS                  
MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH THE LOW             
PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE STALLING FRONT IN THE                 
AREA...WILL LOWER SPEEDS JUST A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  NO OTHER               
MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                      
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SE              
INTO SE SD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. HAVE                  
THEREFORE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING -TRW. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST              
MSAS ANALYSIS STILL PLACING AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM                
JUST SOUTH OF KFAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL NE...STILL HAVE A CHANCE            
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF -TRW THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS             
SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LAPSE                      
RATES...AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RUC ALSO ADVERTISES             
SOME DECENT VALUES OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG            
OF CAPE RANGING FROM KMBG TO KATY. BEST CHANCE FOR -TRW LOOKS TO BE             
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAX TEMPS                
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S...WITH               
WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NW/N AS THE COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH             
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING                                            
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE                                                                       
MN...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ALBRECHT                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLICATED FORECAST ONGOING FOR TODAY AS FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES            
TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON ALL THE 12Z MODELS               
LEANED MORE WITH THE RUC'S HANDLING OF THE H500 PATTERN...WHICH                 
WOULD PLACE THE CWA BETWEEN VORT MAX TO THE WEST...AND TO THE EAST              
WITH SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE                
TSRA POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KABR SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF                
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF CONVECTIVE TEMP CAN BE REACHED AS MID LEVEL            
LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE                  
ALONG FRONT AND NEXT APPROACHING VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW SOME                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK              
EAST WITH THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK FOR THE MOST                
PART...BUT SOME DECENT ANTICYCLONIC DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FOUND JUST             
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP A FEW STORMS ORGANIZE. WILL LEAVE               
SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES THOUGH AS WIND SHEAR MAY BE TO WEAK             
TO ALLOW FOR ALOT OF ORGANIZATION. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT BASED             
ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST H850 PROGS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO              
THIS EVENING.  CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN                
DAKOTAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST.  PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO               
PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON SURFACE WINDS...BUT APPEARS TO               
EXTEND FROM AROUND KBIS TO JUST WEST OF KPIR TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS            
OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE UPPER WAVE            
OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH              
THE UPPER WAVE INTO MN AND WRN IA BY 00Z...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT              
WEAKENS AND HANGS BACK OVER EXTREME SERN SD.  WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL              
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THIS              
AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR TSRA TO REDEVELOP               
ALONG FRONT.  THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR                
ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...TAPERING TO MORE                
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.  AS OF 08Z...               
ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY IN NRN NE             
AND SRN SD...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THESE MODELS A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY FOR            
TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF VALUES FOR TODAY.  AS FOR POSSIBILITY            
OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON...              
WILL HAVE TO RELY ON INSTABILITY.  THIS GREATEST ALONG THE SURFACE              
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN AREA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO             
SEE APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT OUT BEST.  THINK SOUTHEAST WILL BE            
HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...KEEPING                
TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMITING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL              
MENTION MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN HWO ALONG MAINLY EAST OF JAMES RIVER            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN JAMES RIVER AND I-29             
CORRIDOR.                                                                       
WILL LINGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE               
LOW LEVEL FRONT INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND                 
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE               
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.  850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 25C OVER THE               
SOUTHWEST CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20C OR A LITTLE WARMER            
IN THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN              
THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. GFS MAINTAINS THE             
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE               
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA.  WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS                 
OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...SHOULD ALSO SEE VERY            
MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.              
GET A PRETTY GOOD NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET GOING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND              
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH            
OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES 700MB TEMPS             
TO +12 TO +14C.  SO THINK ANY TSRA CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE             
AREA UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN PARTS              
OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST BRINGS              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND DID             
NOT REALLY MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PLACEMENT OR TIMING AT THIS TIME.                
NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 JRM/HACKER                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
945 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY N...WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NOW              
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. WEAK DOWNSLOPE HAS KICKED IN ALONG BLUE                 
RIDGE...WITH CLRG NOTED NC AND SRN VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES. SFC LOW STILL          
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN PIEDONT ALLOWING SOUTHWARD                
PROGRESSION OF STRATO-CU OVER AREA EAST OF DANVILLE.  A.M. SOUNDING             
SHOWS SATURATION TO 790 MB...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THAT             
LEVEL.  WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FEEL THAT ANY HEATING IN         
CLEARED OUT AREAS WILL RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SC DECK THIS AFTN.           
CHC SHRA AREA DEPICTED OVER WEST & NW THIS AFTN IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK          
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...AND LOOKS REASONABLE.                                       
WILL DO A LATE AM UPDATE MAILY FOR REMOVING AM WORDING AND TO ADJUST            
CLDS/TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY.                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW FINALLY PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AS           
WIDESPREAD SHRA CONT TO SLOWLY TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ATTM. EXPECT           
AS DEEP RH/UVV GRDLY LIFT FARTHER N...AND 85H UPSLOPE ENDS WILL SEE             
MAJORITY OF SIG RAINFALL FADE THIS MORNING...AS BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA           
WRAP WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER SYSTEM EARLY ON. THUS PLAN TO CONT CHCY POPS         
MAINLY FAR N EARLY ON WITH CLOUDS TRICKY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE E AND DRY SLOT         
ACROSS THE S/SW. THINK OVERALL BECMG PC S/WRN SLOPES TO MAINLY CLDY NW          
AND A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN. NEXT WEAK S/W PER ETA TO ROTATE IN FROM            
THE NW LATE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING/INSTAB DESPITE DVLPG MID           
LEVEL CAP. APPEARS ANY HEATING ESPCLY OVER THE RIDGES ENOUGH TO SPARK           
ADDED LOW TOPPED SHRA WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP IN SLGT CHCS ALL           
BUT THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR          
HIGHS TO JUMP WHERE SUN GETS THRU WHILE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLOUDS ELSW.         
WITH ETA SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL WEDGING HOLDING OUT E WONT RAISE HIGHS           
MUCH FOR NOW EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WHERE PLAN TO NUDGE UP A CAT TO COVER.            
UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS OUT/WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING             
SOME WEAK SFC RIDGING TO DEVELOP TNGT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY.          
MAY NEED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD EVENING SHRA PER VORT...OTRW PLAN TO GO            
DRY OVERNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG A GOOD BET LATE GIVEN LGT WINDS/WET             
GROUND. WAA MAKES A RETURN BEHIND EXITING RIDGE SUNDAY WITH MORE                
SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS EDGING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. COULD AGAIN         
BE ISOLD SHRA RIDGES LATER SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MOIST BLYR BUT GIVEN             
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS WILL GO PC/DRY FOR NOW                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NEXT WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES SUNDAY NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING MON UPON          
MOVING INTO BUILDING SE 5H RIDGE. APPEARS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AGAIN A            
BIT SLOWER WITH BEST CHCS COMING DURING MAX HEATING MON...SO WILL CUT           
BACK CHCS SUNDAY NGT ESPCLY OUT E. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE            
DOMINATED BY OFFSHRE RIDGE WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED             
UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS. CANADIAN AGAIN BASICALLY DRY TUE-FRI WHILE GFS              
SHOWING DAILY TSRA WITH BETTER CHCS LATE WEEK AS S/W ENERGY DENTS RIDGE         
A BIT. SINCE THE CANADIAN WAS TOO STRONG WITH RIDGE A WHILE BACK AND            
STILL WILL HAVE LOTS OF RH AROUND...THINK HARD TO CAP TSRA ESPCLY W SO          
PLAN TO STICK WITH DIURNAL CHC POPS AT THIS POINT. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE           
TO PC/WARM/HUMID FCST WITH TEMPS 75-80 W AND 80-85 E THRU THE EXTENDED.         
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH/MG                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
217 PM MDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
WEATHER ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW GRADE MAINLY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS (A FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE                         
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY             
OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS) AS WELL AS WARMING                 
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.                                            
CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING SOME VERY HEALTHY CELLS NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW             
MEXICO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BORDER...(THANKS TO SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE           
REGION) RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST OF TRINIDAD TO SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY              
WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.               
AFTERNOON EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE                  
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC/MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT SURFACE             
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS INTO THE                  
EVENING AND THIS IS WHERE I HAVE PUT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS...               
(AGAIN WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO APPROACH                    
OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AT LEAST BRIEFLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO                   
MONITOR)...OTHERWISE ISOLATED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE DURING THE EVENING            
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS.                                                      
SWITCHING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES...HAVE BUMPED UP INHERITED MAXIMUM              
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BY A CATEGORY OR TWO SEVERAL AREAS AS LATEST            
MODELS HAVE VERY WARM TO HOT 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER                    
DISTRICT. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION.                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(MONDAYDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)                                                    
...MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS FIRE WX...                                  
MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SE AND              
SC COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE                 
COAST OF BC CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIG AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE              
AND CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...             
DRY AND VERY WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION. MAIN                   
CONCERN FOR THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WED AND THU TIME FRAME. IF               
FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY...THEN FIRE WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED                 
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION.                                      
A MINOR FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND THIS WILL             
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL THINGS OFF A FEW DEGREES. ETA80 IS                   
HINTING AT SOME LOW POPS FAR E PLAINS BUT PLAN TO PLAY IT                       
CONSERVATIVE AND LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW.                                          
AS FOR PRECIP FARTHER OUT...I CANT REALLY GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT MUCH.           
SOME ISOLD POPS ARE IN THE GRIDDS FOR TOMORROW NITE AND WED AND CANT            
SEE ANY GOOD REASON TO REMOVE POPS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THU            
MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME POPS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT HOT AND DRY FOR               
NOW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RE-ADJUST IF NEEDED.                   
\/HODANISH                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO                                            
225 PM MDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC SYSTEM OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF IDAHO                   
CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED ESPECIALLY ON ITS SRN FRINGES                  
INCLUDING FOR BOISE.  AN UPPER JET MAX NR 100 KTS PER RUC MAX WIND              
IS PUSHING INTO E CENTRAL OREGON WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING                
THROUGH OREGON.  AS MAXT TIME APPROACHES AND THESE FEATURES CONTINUE            
MOVING E/NE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR N ZONES THIS                 
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FIRE OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY                
WINDS POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH FAR N...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH             
FILTER THROUGH THE REMAINING ZONES WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.             
A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE FRONTAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WHILE               
SEVERE TS SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE REGION.  COOLING IS THE MAIN                  
EFFECT OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM...FROM NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY TO                   
AVERAGE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE OREGON COAST              
BACK TO 45N 140W WITH THE UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE ACROSS SW IDAHO               
SUNDAY SO WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION... AFTERNOON MIXING WILL                
BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.  A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROF IN THE               
NORTHERN GULF OF AK THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY THE WESTERN U.S.                
TROF RESULTING IN A SECONDARY COLD SURGE AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE             
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE.                                      
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH              
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED                
PERIOD.  THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE THE DEEPEST ON WEDNESDAY AND                  
STARTS TO LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY.  THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE              
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE              
AND PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE             
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PW VALUES DON/T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY             
ABOUT .60...SUCH THAT QPF REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.  BY THE LATTER                
HALF OF THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO             
ALLOW SOME DRYING TO START TO INTRUDE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  A LOW                
LEVEL COLD POOL IS TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW KEEPING MAX TEMPS MUCH             
BELOW NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES...WITH A SLIGHT                  
COOLING TREND FROM WED IN MANLY LOCATIONS.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL                 
WAVE...ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH...WILL CROSS THE                 
REGION LATE FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN              
ZONES.  BY SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN              
RESIDING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL COME ON-SHORE AND PROGRESS                 
EASTWARD REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL.                                
$$                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.ID...NONE.                                                                     
.OR...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VM                                                                 
LONG TERM....RH                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
308 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH NOW WELL EAST OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                
UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS REACHED FROM SW KS THROUGH EASTERN NEB TO NW MN.           
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WITH                
PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DENSE CI SHIELD SEEN ON SATELLITE. STRONGER            
MCV EVIDENT FURTHER SOUTH WAS PRODUCING NEARLY SMALL NEARLY                     
STATIONARY TSRA COMPLEX OVER NE KS. FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST...               
CONVECTION WAS JUST STARTING TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE TROUGH BOUNDARY             
IN PLAINS. OVER CWA...PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND COOL H7 TEMPS HAVE               
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG EDGE OF APPROACHING HIGH             
CLOUDS WHERE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL VORT MAX BEGINNING TO BE FELT.              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA WILL            
BE ON-GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL VORT MAX TRACKS ACROSS               
AREA AND RUC HAS DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. THEN...MAIN MID LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW MN...PRODUCES BEST LIFT             
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WILL COUNT ON SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN SEVERAL HOUR             
BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND SLOW             
MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR MOST OF CWA              
LATE TONIGHT. QPF WILL BE ON LIGHT SIDE AS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT                    
LIMITED. GFS ESPECIALLY WAS OVERDONE ON H85 DEWPOINTS INTO NORTHERN             
PLAINS THIS MORNING. ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING             
UP OVER AREA AND WASHING OUT AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN             
PLAINS GENERATES RETURN FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL LINGER EARLY IN MORNING...THEN FEW COULD REDEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST            
ALONG DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON AND KEPT SCATTERED POPS                 
THERE. CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO AREA WILL LIMIT LOWS             
TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND            
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING UPPER 70S            
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. ...SHEETS...                                          
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                    
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                                 
SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER...WITH                 
RIDGING ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.                   
CONDITIONS GET INCREASINGLY WARM ALOFT...WITH 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY             
AFTERNOON APPROACHING 12 DEG C...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A PRETTY                
DECENT CAP ON CONVECTION.  IT COOLS OFF A LITTLE ALOFT BY                       
TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY                   
THEN...NOTHING FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON.  SO...HAVE GONE DRY FOR              
THESE PERIODS FOR NOW...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THESE PARAMETERS              
COULD REALLY CHANGE THINGS. FOR NOW...HAVE PICKED ON THE GFS AS IT              
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT FEATURES BEST...AND HAS REASONABLE             
SOLUTION THROUGH PERIOD.  DO NOT SEE WHY ETA IS PUSHING THE FRONT               
AND PRECIP SO FAR SOUTH TUESDAY...AND HAVE IGNORED AS A RESULT.                 
TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD TO GRADUALLY WARM...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID LOW            
LEVEL CONDITIONS.                                                               
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                               
THIS TIME FRAME DOMINATED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH AN               
EQUALLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES.  GFS IS THE                 
MODEL OF CHOICE...KEEPING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE              
CWA...ACROSS MN AND WI.  BOTH EUROPEAN MODELS BRING THIS SURFACE                
FRONT TO LAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON                         
THURSDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE                
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE TO            
RE-INFORCE...AND OVERDOING THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE              
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH.  SO...THIS TIME FRAME TO BE HOT AND                      
DRY...WITH TEMPS PUSHING 90 DURING THE DAY...AND ONLY IN THE                    
MID-UPPER 60S AT NIGHT.                                                         
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...                                              
IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...ITS TOO MUCH TO EXPECT THAT WE WOULD             
STAY DRY FOR LONG.  THE CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
PARAGRAPH FINALLY SWINGS OUT OF THE FAR WEST...AND DEPRESSES THE                
RIDGE ENOUGH TO SPIN SOME PRECIP OUR WAY.  WITH THE GULF HAVING BEEN            
OPEN FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN               
THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD            
DEFINETELY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME PRECIP.  HAVE SOME PRECIP INTO              
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST COULD NOT              
RULE OUT AN MCS OR LIKE FEATURE RIDING DOWN THE SURFACE WARM                    
FRONT...WHICH REALLY ISN'T THAT FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH.  OVERALL                 
THOUGH...BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.             
SATURDAY THE GFS SPINS UP A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER                          
OKLAHOMA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP OUR DIRECTION.  ITS             
TOO FAR WEST FOR PRECIP FOR US SATURDAY...BUT SOME MAY DRIFT DOWN ON            
US SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS EAST.  TEMPS DURING THIS                
PERIOD TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE RAIN            
IN THE VICINITY...SO HIGHS TO BE IN THE 80S.  MINS AT NIGHT TO BE               
HELD UP THOUGH...AND WITH THE INCREASED RH LEVELS TO BE DOWNRIGHT               
MUGGY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.   ...LE...                                          
&&                                                                              
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLS/LRE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
414 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND ENDING OF SHRA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN            
AND THEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATER MON/TUE.                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE W                 
COAST OF CANADA/PACIFIC NW. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS                
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO DIG SE THRU MANITOBA TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES.            
PCPN AREA MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI IS WELL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND IS            
TIED TO A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS CYCLONIC SPIN TO RADAR ECHOES IS              
EVIDENT. CLOUDS/PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INHIBITING                 
INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC...              
WEAK LOW PRES WAS OVER CNTRL MN. CLOUDS IN THAT AREA HAVE BKN IN THE            
WAKE OF PRECEEDING PCPN AREA...AND NEW CONVECTION IS FIRING THERE               
NOW. OTHER CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER NW MN/WRN ONTARIO JUST AHEAD OF            
SHORTWAVE.                                                                      
12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM THRU               
THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT ETA IS 3-6HRS FASTER THAN GFS. PREFER THE                
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS GIVEN AGREEMENT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET. GOING FCST             
MATCHES THIS TIMING WELL...SO FEW CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO ENDING              
TIME OF PCPN.                                                                   
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF              
PCPN AREA TIED TO MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSING INTO WRN UPPER MI            
ATTM AS LATE AFTN INSTABILILITY IS ACTED UPON BY APPROACHING                    
SHORTWAVE. SO PCPN SHOULD FILL IN SOME IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT PCPN              
AREA MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. FOR ENDING TIME...WILL USE FROPA AS                
DEPICTED BY GFS WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR OVER SERN FCST AREA UNTIL ABOUT            
MIDMORNING SUN. THOUGH PCPN WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...MOST AREAS                 
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE             
AND AVBL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND A                  
QUARTER PER 12Z ANALYSIS). AS FOR SVR THREAT...LIMITED DAYTIME                  
HEATING DUE TO LEAD PCPN AREA HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF                      
INSTABILITY (LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE LESS THAN 100J/KG).                   
LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF                  
20-30KT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR TONIGHT.                                        
AFTER LINGERING CHC OF SHRA SUN MORNING OVER E/SE FCST AREA...EXPECT            
IMPROVING SKY CONDITION FROM W TO E AS PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRYING               
ARRIVES. LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT AS WELL...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCT             
CU DEVELOPMENT. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES BY LATE AFTN...SO LAKE              
BREEZES SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING BY LATE AFTN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND              
SUPERIOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH ERN COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL OF ISOLD                
AFTN SHRA IN CONVERGENT ZONE BTWN MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LAKE                    
BREEZES. ETA GENERATES SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG FOR SFC T/TD OF            
UPPER 60S/MID 50S (SFC DWPT PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH THOUGH). WILL               
LEAVE OUT SHRA MENTION AS MINIMAL CAPE AND INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR AT            
AND ABOVE 10KFT SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT.                                    
TRANQUIL EVENING ON TAP SUN NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING E OF              
THE AREA. QUESTION ON MON BECOMES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNDER                    
STRENGTHENING WAA. UKMET/ETA/GFS HINT AT IT WITH SOME QPF GENERATED             
OVER/NEAR UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY UKMET. AT THIS POINT...WOULD APPEAR             
THAT AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE TOO DRY HERE PER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS.             
JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MN...ETA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE (0-1KM)            
DEVELOPING MON AFTN WITH VALUES OVER 4K J/KG ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT             
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (THETA-E DECREASING FROM 850-500MB). SINCE               
NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NW OF UPPER MI MON...EXPECT               
BEST INSTABILITY AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN NW              
OF HERE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROHIBITIVE              
SFC BASED CIN OVER UPPER MI AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER WAA. END             
RESULT SHOULD BE SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HERE.                             
MON NIGHT/TUE FCST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO             
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TO WRN ONTARIO.                  
ETA/GFS SHOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 850MB              
MON NIGHT WITH VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG FEEDING NE ALONG JET...AND                   
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY STEEP AT 7-8C/KM. ENOUGH FACTORS             
ARE THERE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA MON NIGHT. ON TUE...STRONG            
SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING TO             
UPPER MI LATE. WILL THUS CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC THRU TUE...EXCEPT OVER             
THE E WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE CAPPED UNDER THERMAL RIDGE. DEPENDING            
ON CLOUD COVER/PCPN AND EXACT TIMING OF FRONT...TUE COULD BE VERY               
WARM/HUMID WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 18-20C OVER THE AREA. WILL               
HOLD ONTO LOW-MID 80S IN GOING FCST FOR NOW.                                    
WED THRU SAT...SOMEWHAT LESS CONFIDENCE TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD AS NOW            
THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE ERN            
CONUS TO KEEP COLD FRONT FROM SAGGING WELL S OF THE AREA WED/THU.               
THE UKMET AND ECWMF ARE VERY SIMILAR NOW AND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE THE            
00Z/04 UKMET RUN. BOTH SHOW ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSING THRU                
ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO FORCE COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA             
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WITH IT STALLING OUT FROM NRN IL TO NRN OH THU.             
THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH LOOKED LIKE THE GFS YESTERDAY HAS ALSO                 
TRENDED TOWARD THE UK/EC SOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER              
DROPPING FRONT THRU THE AREA WED. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN             
CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT OPERATIONAL RUN WHICH              
HANGS FRONT UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED THRU FRI BEFORE STRONG            
SHORTWAVE DRIVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...WITH GFS NOW              
ALONE WITH ITS MORE NRLY FRONTAL PLACEMENT...PREFER TO TREND TOWARD             
THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TODAY. EXPECT FRONT TO DROP S OF              
UPPER MI WED AND HANG UP OVER THE SRN LAKES REGION THU BEFORE IT                
STARTS TO RETURN N ON FRI AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF            
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH FRONT FARTHER S OF THE AREA THU/FRI              
THAN WHAT GFS SHOWS...WILL CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF GFS MOS GUIDANCE             
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE E/NE BOUNDARY LAYER             
FLOW WILL INCREASE COOLING. AS FOR PCPN...WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC              
THRU THE PERIOD...ENDING FRI NIGHT. THU MAY END UP BEING A DRY DAY              
WITH FRONT WELL S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO CHC FOR THIS FCST            
ISSUANCE IN LIGHT OF GFS INSISTANCE ON A FARTHER N FRONTAL POSITION.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING            
AND THEIR SEVERITY.                                                             
THE ETA AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF THE TWO WERE              
USED.                                                                           
LARGE AREA OF RAIN FINALLY MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA. OTHER SHOWERS                
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STARTING TO FIRE ELSEWHERE IN MN...AND IN                
NORTHWEST ONTARIO.                                                              
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOME IN FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN ZONES THIS              
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LEAD TO SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO               
-6C. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN                   
KANSAS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER SURFACE                    
BOUNDARY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND IS             
DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO            
LOWER 60S...AND WITH THE HEATING WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED...SOME OF            
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH           
FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN                 
MINNESOTA...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST                          
MINNESOTA...INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO.                                             
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...AND HAVE               
ENDED THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z.                                      
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY TAKES OVER SUNDAY. STRONG 850MB WINDS AROUND              
45 KNOTS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW                      
STABILITIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE FOR                
SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...            
AND ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS ON MONDAY. STABILITIES REALLY DROP                  
DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS 45KT TO 55KT 850MB SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVE OVER           
ENTIRE CWA. ONE DRAWBACK FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE CAP.                
700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. WE WILL             
GO WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALL AREAS AT THIS TIME.                             
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW              
PUMPS HIGHER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. A BIG QUESTION MARK ON               
MONDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE                     
(SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP NORTH SHORE MUCH COOLER). SURFACE FLOW                
FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 160 DEGREES...AND WITH FALLING PRESSURE TO OUR             
WEST WITH TROUGH MOVING IN...I EXPECT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND               
THEN TURN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST IN THE TWIN PORTS HARBOR.                
I/VE COOLED HIGHS QUITE A BIT FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKE UP THE                  
NORTH SHORE. THERE OBVIOUSLY IS A HUGE BUST POTENTIAL...AS                      
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE IF WINDS                 
REMAIN SOUTH...VERSUS THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH EAST WINDS.                    
SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK             
AND WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
255 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERN PRECIPITATION             
ENDING TONIGHT AND THE EXTENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW                      
MORNING.  THE LONG TERM CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS             
A SOUTHWEST TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                              
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW             
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA PROVIDING              
WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.  LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO                  
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL             
CONTINUE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.                 
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING AS ABOVE MENTIONED             
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT AFTER 00Z              
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  WET SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM            
RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING                    
OVERNIGHT.  WILL BE MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST BUT WILL                
LEAVE ANY ADVISORY FOR EVENING SHIFT AS EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS                   
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.                                                        
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE              
HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF LOW AND INCREASING 850 MB                
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER            
80S ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.  HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA FOR                  
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE RIDES ACROSS UPPER RIDGE.  BEST FORCING               
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT               
ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.                   
WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS               
850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN            
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE              
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY               
THROUGH MIDWEEK.                                                                
AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK             
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME            
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF CAPPING THAT                  
MIGHT TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF HEATING IN PLACE.  BEST CHANCES            
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER              
WAVE MOVES SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA.                                      
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE             
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL            
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER PLACEMENT IS QUITE             
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.  WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.                               
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER                 
/PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL                 
CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX.  THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX.                     
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS/MOHR                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...JUST UPDATE PICTURES AND WORDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT              
TRENDS OF CLOUDS AND TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DEBRIS CLOUDS             
MOST PREVALENT OVER EASTERN AREAS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT                 
AS SUCH...AND 80S SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE SUN. SOUTHWEST ZONES                
WOULD PROBABLY BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON               
AS  THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER WAVE SLIDE BY AND SOME INCREASED LOW              
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN TROUGH AND HILL CITY. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL                 
THROUGHOUT...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.                
MAIN ACTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA FOR THE MOST PART.                  
.PREV DISCUSSION...LL MASS FLUX WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY WEDGE POKING IN FM THE W AIDING CONVN THIS AM...                    
PARTICULARLY ACRS NC KS AND OVR NE SANDHILLS. FCST DILEMMA LIES                 
W/EVOLUTION OF SANDHILLS CONV CLUSTER THROUGH THIS AM AND POTENTIAL             
FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG ADV WK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING OUT OF            
THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCN/W LEAD TROF.                                              
GIVEN STEEP EML SPREADING OUT OVERTOP CWA THIS AM AND DEEP LL MSTR              
PLUME IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON FOR DVLPG MCS OVR THE SANDHILLS OR               
COMING OUT OF SW SD TO DECAY GIVEN FVRBL LLJ. EXTRAPOLATION PER 850-            
300MB THICKNESSES CLIPS NE CORNER OF CWA BTWN 9-12Z W/SANDHILLS                 
ACTIVITY AND THRU 18Z W/SD LEFT OVERS IN LINE W/SHRT TERM RUCII                 
PROGS. OTHERWISE SUSPECT KS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED THAT AREA BY             
12Z. AFTN CHCS RELEGATED TO DEGREE OF DIURNAL RECOVERY AND DIFFICULT            
TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HWVR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL WEAK ESP IN REGARD             
TO SUSTAINED CVRG ALG WK SFC BNDRY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN ENOUGH                       
DESTABILIZATION LIKE ETA PROGS...NO AT ALL OUT OF THE QN. FOR NOW               
WILL CONCENTRATE ON AM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL               
TRY REFINING AFT PD BUT TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHORT AS FOCUS               
SHIFTS QUICKLY INTO KS TONIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT PANS OUT.?                         
AFT THAT...WRN TROF/CNTRL US RIDGE DVLPMNT SIGNAL TORRID WEEK HERE.             
PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME NEEDED PRECIP THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST BUT              
SIGNAL MIXED AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. HWVR WARMING UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO              
FLIRT W/100 DEGREE READINGS ACRS THE SW QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MID               
WEEK W/90S ELSEWHERE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM                
OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT                        
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS:                               
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CR_PHASE1.HTM                         
$$                                                                              
T/MORITZ                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ne