AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
313 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000...UPDATED                                            
PER 18Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC2 SFC WIND PROGS WILL EXTEND THE GOING            
BLWG SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. TOO MANY COUNTIES                      
CURRENTLY UNDER SNOW EMERGENCIES AND MOST COUNTY ROADS DRIFTED SHUT.            
WHAT A WEEK! 17Z SFC MAP SHOWING INTENSE LOW PRES CONTG TO PULL OFF             
TO THE NE THRU CANADA. COLD AIR CONTS TO POUR INTO CWA WITH                     
TEMPERATURES STILL FALLING. UPSTREAM READINGS OVR IA/IL ALL AOB                 
ZERO. NW COMPONENT OFF THE LK STILL CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LK EFFECT              
CONTRARY TO QUITE LOW INVERSION HGHTS. PRES GRADIENT CONTS QUITE                
INTENSE WITH MOST PLACES GUSTING 25-30KTS AND WILL CONT BLOWING                 
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 400 PM.                                                     
MAJOR CONCERNS LIE WITH NEXT SYS AND TEMPS.                                     
12Z MODELS LIKE EARLIER RUNS CONT TO INDICATE VRY ACTIVE PATTERN                
REMAINING IN PLACE. NEXT SYS IN STREAM OF ENDLESS SYS/S DROPPING SEWD           
ATTM THRU CENTRAL ROCKIES IN ADV OF 140+KT JET OVR OR WHICH ALL                 
MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL WITH. LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY             
UNDERWAY OVR CO/WY. THIS SYS PROGGED VRY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESOR              
WITH 48HR ETA PROG MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHTS 00Z MODEL INITIALIZATION.              
HWVR CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTR FOR THIS SYS TO WORK WITH AS OPPOSED TO           
YDA/S STORM. WILL LEAN TOWARD STGR ETA SOLUTION GIVEN WHATS OCCURED             
WITH PREVIOUS SYS/S OVR THE LAST WEEK. IMPRESSIVE H5 HGHT FALL                  
COMBINED WITH SIG CAA UNDER DVLPG UPR TROF AND UPR JET COUPLING IN              
36-48HR TIME FRAME FOREBODING. SFC/MID LVL LOW TRACK NRLY IDENTICAL             
TO SYS YDA BUT APPARENTLY MUCH WKR. TIME WILL TELL BUT FEEL MODELS              
UNDERPLAYING SFC DVLPMNT GIVEN UPR DYNAMICS FALLING INTO PLACE.                 
OTHERWISE THE ONLY CONTENTION WITH THE ETA MODEL IS ITS LACK OF MODEL           
QPF GIVEN SIG UVV LT TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. INTERESTING TO NOTE           
ITS CORRESPONDING HALF INCH QPF WAY UP IN THE COLD AIR OVER WI AND              
MI. AT ANY RATE...PROGGED TRACK OF SYS QUITE FAVRBL FOR SIG SNOW ACRS           
FA. AS SYS DEPARTS TUE...SIG LK EFFECT ON TAP WITH HEART OF COLD AIR            
COMING OVR LK. BUFKIT SHOWING INVERSION HGHTS INCREASING TO NR 10K/FT           
TUE WITH GOOD LK BASED INSTABILITY...CYCLONIC WRAPAROUND AND VRY                
FVRBL FETCH.                                                                    
TEMPS THIS PM ALREADY WELL BEHIND SOME GUIDANCE NUMBERS. MAV/FAN                
DOING BETTER BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH. WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY ESP             
FOR TONIGHT WITH LTR PDS LOOKING CLOSE BUT PROBABLY NOT COLD ENOUGH             
GIVEN THE DEEPENING SNOWPACK.                                                   
WILL FOR NOW DEFER ANY NEEDED HIGHLITES TO NEXT SHIFT AS SYS MAY COME           
OUT FURTHER SOUTH AND STRONGER IN LTR MODEL RUNS...BUT WILL ISSUE               
ANOTHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLITE UPCOMING THREAT GIVEN MAIN EVENT XCPD IN            
THE THIRD AND FOURTH PDS.                                                       
.IWX...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING ENTIRE CWA.                   
TEH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1011 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                     
VRY TOUGH CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA THIS AM. RUC2 AND SAT SHOWING                
DEEP CYC MOISTR STUCK IN PLACE WITH FVRBL FETCH OF LK MI. QUITE A               
BIT OF SHSN ACTIVITY DVLPG OVERHEAD ATTM WITH A CALL FM MICHIGAN                
CITY OF 1/2 INCH PER HR SNOWFALL RATES OFF THE LAKE. WINDS MAKING               
THINGS MUCH WORSE WITH UP TO 9 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL LAST NIGHT.               
MOST N-S ROADS REPORTED IMPASSABLE WITH INDOT PULLING THE PLOWS OFF             
EARLIER THIS AM. WILL NEED TO ADD NW CORNER TO CURRENT BLWG SNOW                
ADVISORY AND UP ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN MANY CURRENT REPORTS OF MOD SNOW            
FALLING NOW. THINGS WILL START WINDING DOWN AS VRY INTENSE LOW OVR              
W QUE CONTS TO PULL OFF TO THE NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS THE               
OTHER DILEMMA WITH 15Z READINGS WELL BLO GUIDANCE ESP ACRS THE S                
HALF. WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.                                                  
.IWX...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ENTIRE CWA.                                        
TEH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
910 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                      
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE SLOWER H500 TROF POSITIONS OF            
THE 18Z ETA AND 00Z RUC APPEARED CLOSEST TO REALITY.  00Z 3HR SURFACE           
PRESSURE FALLS WERE BEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT BY 02Z THE                 
FALLS WERE INCHING INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.                                      
LATEST RUC AND NEW 00Z MODELS KEEP DELAYING THE BEGINNING OF THE                
PRECIP...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS THAN 12Z VERSIONS.  AM HESITANT TO                 
DOWNPLAY THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED              
STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW LATE TONIGHT NORTHCENTRAL AND                     
NORTHEAST ALL AREAS.                                                            
WON'T MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO AMOUNTS (ALTHOUGH MAY PHASE DOWN AN                   
INCH)...BUT WILL DELAY THE ONSET (ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST).  A                   
DELAYED BEGINNING WILL ALSO LESSEN THE RISK OF A WINTRY MIX.                    
.TOP...CONTINUE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY               
GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ABILENE TO COUNCIL GROVE TO GARNETT LINE.                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
855 PM CST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC DATA SHOWING RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TAKE PLACE              
LATE TONIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING                   
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH LOWS BEFORE MIDNIGHT OVER            
WESTERN SECTIONS AND A FEW HOURS LATER ACROSS THE EAST. RISING                  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ALREADY HANDLED WITH CURRENT FORECAST. WINDS             
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER ALL SECTIONS AS HIGH HAS SHIFTED             
TO MS/AL BORDER AND LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER THE OKLAHOMA              
PANHANDLE. SATELLITE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS FORMING IN SOUTH TEXAS AT               
VICTORIA AND MOVING NORTHEAST. LOOKING AT RUC AND MESOETA SOUNDINGS             
FOR TEXARKANA AND NORTHWARD THERE WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND TOO               
MUCH WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE...FREEZING LEVEL 8-10 THOUSAND FEET             
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION EXCEPT POSSIBLY DRIZZLE/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.              
WILL CHANGE WORDING FOR THE TWO ZONES THAT HAVE SNOW AND FREEZING               
RAIN ACCORDINGLY. LOW LEVEL JET REACHES 50 KNOTS OVER EAST TEXAS BY             
18/09Z. NO ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SINCE               
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WILL TAKE OUT EVENING WORDING AS WELL.              
09                                                                              
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
935 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                      
MAIN UPDATE CONCERN IS LES.                                                     
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANAL SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF EXTENDING FROM E                
ONTARIO TO DELAWARE VALLEY. ANOTHER TROF EXTENDED FROM SW MANITOBA              
THROUGH W DAKOTAS TO COLORADO. SLIGHT VEERING OF WIND OVER EASTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR ENOUGH TO DECREASE ORGANIZATION OF LES BANDS AND PUSH             
THEM FARTHER INLAND OVER MQT COUNTY. SPOTTY 28+DBZ RETURNS CONTINUE             
OVER EASTERN MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES. KINL 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS                    
INVERSION AT 2K FEET WITH KAPX SHOWING INVERSION NEAR 6K FEET WITH              
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS <2C IN MIXED LAYER. KCMX STILL REPORTING -SN               
WITH VIS GENERALLY AROUND 2SM...BUT LAST OB SHOWED WINDS HAVE                   
SHIFTED NORTH. LAST FEW OBS FROM KCMX ALSO SHOW INCREASING TREND IN             
BOTH CIGS AND VIS. LAKE-H85 DELTA/T REMAINS AROUND 18C OVERNIGHT                
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED. 00Z RUC HAS MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON SFC              
PATTERN THAN 18Z ETA...SO FOLLOWED RUC FOR UPDATE. 02Z SFC ANAL                 
SHOWS COL JUST WEST OF UPR MI...BEGINNING TO NUDGE INTO WESTERN                 
UPR/LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TURN MORE                        
ANTICYCLONIC. WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITIES REMAINING IN PLACE             
OVER NIGHT WILL CONTINUE SCATTERED -SHSN. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS...              
PLAN TO DROP LES ADVISORY OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES.                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
720 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                      
STILL LOOKING BACK ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.  VERY DIFFICULT                 
FORECAST LAST NIGHT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH            
WAS FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN MODELS...AND WE...PREDICTED.  400MB                  
DEFORMATION ZONE WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AFTER 06Z SUN AND WAS PROGGED             
TO BE ABOUT 50-80 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WHERE IT FINALLY DID SET UP.               
IN ADDITION...WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTIONS (>20 UB/S 850-500MB) THIS            
AIDED THE DYMANICAL COOLING WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW QUITE QUICKLY.        
FURTHERMORE... SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDER LAST NIGHT WHICH ONLY                 
COMPLICATED FACTORS LATER ON WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW.  SEE THE                
LATEST ARBPNSDTX FOR SNOW TOTALS...COMPLETE LIST OUT SHORTLY.                   
NOW WE MUST MOVE ON TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW.   88D FROM                 
HERE...KDTX...AND KGRR SHOW ABOUT AN 80 MILE WIDE BAND DECREASING IN            
INTENSITY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ONE MAIN BAND IS CURRENTLY                 
BETWEEN THE I94-I96 CORRIDOR BUT VISIBILITIES FROM SURROUNDING OBS              
ARE AROUND 3-4 MILES.  LOOKING AT THE 6KM LOCALLY RUN ETA                       
SOUNDINGS...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THE INVERSION LEVELS WERE FORECAST TO            
BE NEAR 4600 FEET...LOW HEIGHTS.  1000-850 WIND TRAJECTORIES AROUND             
280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TOWARD               
250 DEGREES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAINING THE                
SAME.  THINK AS NIGHT PROGRESSES WE SHOULD FIND ONE BAND OF SNOW                
ALONG I96 BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM THEN SHIFT NORTH...JUST NORTH OF                   
I69...AROUND MIDNIGHT.  1000-850 OMEGAS FROM THE 6KM ETA DO WEAKEN              
OVERNIGHT SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  CURRENT ZONES LOOK               
GREAT AND WILL TWEAK FOR THE PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW.                             
NEXT CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES.  CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE ZONES               
REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS WELL WITH THE COLDEST OF THE AIR ACROSS              
LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES.  TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO            
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL.  RUC MODEL DID              
SHOW THE COLDEST 925/850 TEMPS FOR THOSE AREAS AND WILL ADJUST TEMPS            
DOWN.  THE REST OF THE CWA LOOKS GOOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL              
DO A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.                                                          
NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY LOOKING A BIT MORE INTERESTING.  LATEST 18Z RUN             
OF THE ETA ALREADY TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE.  UNLIKE LAST                  
NIGHTS SYSTEM...THIS ONE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW.  BUFKIT HOURLY                     
SOUNDINGS AND THE QPF ARE GETTING CLOSE TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF            
LIQUID ACROSS THE CWA.  DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290/295 K                 
SURFACE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES GETTING A BIT HIGHER EACH                 
RUN.  MIDNIGHT CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS ANOTHER DEFORMATION              
AXIS...AS SEEN ON THE 18Z ETA...MIGHT SET UP ONCE AGAIN.                        
AS ALWAYS...QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ARE WELCOME.                                  
NOTE...NOAA WEATHER RADIO KIH-29 IN FLINT CONTINUES TO BE OFF THE               
AIR.  TECHNICIANS ARE WORKING ON THE PROBLEM.                                   
.DTX...GALE WARNING...THIS EVENING...LAKES ST CLAIR AND HURON                   
BGM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                     
LES MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                                                 
NW FLOW BEHIND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO               
HAS BEEN DRAGGING COLDER AIR OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. AS A                 
RESULT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND               
THE EAST. WITH COLDER AIR STILL ARRIVING AND SIMILAR MOISTURE                   
PROFILES UPSTREAM, THE CRUX OF THE FCST PROBLEM WILL BE WIND                    
DIRECTION. 15Z RUC/12Z ETA SHOWS BL WINDS CONTINUING AT ABOUT 340               
DEG TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SO, MOD/HVY LES BANDS WILL CONTINUE                
OVER THE SAME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.                                             
IN THE WEST...MOD/HVY LES BANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS WITHIN                 
ABOUT 25 MILES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BASED ON RADAR ECHOES/VWP THE                  
INVERSION IS NOW ABOUT 7K FT WITH DELTA T'S OVER 17C. BASED ON                  
THAT...WILL CONTINUE WARNING IN GOGEBIC COUNTY AND ISSUE SNOW AND               
BLOWING SNOW ADV IN ONT/HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR 2-5                      
ADDITIONAL. FEEL THE BEST CONVERGENCE IS STILL IN GOGEBIC COUNTY.               
IN THE EAST...STRENGTHENING RADAR RETURNS ALL MORNING IN RESPONSE TO            
THE CAA. WITH >28DBZ ECHOES ON RADAR, WILL NEED ADVISORIES FOR                  
EASTERN MARQUETTE, ALGER AND LUCE. WENT 4-8 INCHES HERE WITH                    
STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND LONGER RESIDENCE TIMES. MAY NEED AN UPGRADE            
TO A WARNING IN MID AFTERNOON IF BANDS CONTINUE STRENGTHENING.                  
TEMPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT...AND CHANGED LITTLE.              
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                                          
COORDINATED WITH DLH.                                                           
.MQT...LES WARNING THIS AFTERNOON MIZ009                                        
       LES ADVY THIS AFTERNOON MIZ001>003-005-006-014.                          
ALTOE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1010 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                     
LIKE THEY SAY...IT AIN'T OVER TIL IT'S OVER. LOTS OF RAFL FELL OVER             
ORIGINAL FLOOD WATCH AREA OF POCONOS/WRN CATS WITH OVER 2 INCHES                
FROM COOP AND RAIN SPOTTER NETWORKS IN PA AND ISOLD 3 IN AMOUNTS.               
LESSER INCH TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS SUSQ RGN AND WRN MHWK VALLEY.              
HVY STRATIFORM RAIN AND CONVECTION WL MOVE EAST OF AREA TAFTN...AND             
IS PRETTY MUCH OUT OF WRN AND CNTRL SXNS. TELCOS TO EMERG MANAGERS              
YIELDS ONLY MINOR NUISANCE FLOOD PROBLEMS. CREEKS ARE HIGH...BUT IN             
CHECK. WL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FROM ONEIDA TO BROOME COUNTY                     
WEST...WHICH HAD LESS RAIN AND IS WEST OF HVY RAIN NOW. WL KEEP UP              
POCS/CATS/NRN TIER.                                                             
AS EXPECTED...WINDS UNIMPRESSIVE DUE TO STABLE LLVL AIRMASS. FROPA              
MAY SHAKE THINGS UP BRIEFLY...BUT EVEN WESTERLIES BEHIND FRONT NOW              
COMING INTO WRN NY AND PA ARE WELL BELOW DANGER LVLS. LOW CONTUS TO             
DEEPEN AS NEG TILT TROF ADVANCES...SO WL JUST LEAVE WIND ADVSRY AS              
IS...JUST IN CASE.                                                              
TEMPS GOT OUT OF HAND AND MUCH MILDER THAN THOUGHT...DKK DROPPED                
FROM 50 TO 38 IN AN HOUR...SO WILL IGNORE THE HIGHS NOW AND GO FOR              
THE FALLING TEMPS LATER TODAY. RUC                                              
.BGM...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NE PA...AND              
       WRN CATSKILLS OF NY.                                                     
       WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL OF NE              
       PA AND CENTRAL NEW YORK                                                  
BREWSTER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1043 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2000                                                     
WILL UPDATE GOING ZFP TO KEEP THINGS FRESH AND MAKE A FEW CHANGES.              
SFC STORM SYS TO TRACK ACRS ONT/QUE TODAY. UPR TROF (AND ASSOCIATED             
STRONG TROP FOLD) TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AS WELL.              
NO 00Z MODEL DATA EVALUATED FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE.                            
09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U40S-M50S TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS             
MATCH THIS RANGE PRETTY WELL. MESONET OBS SHOW THAT SOME LOCATIONS              
WERE ALREADY AT THESE READINGS AT 14Z (50S ACRS NRN NY STATE AND 30S            
AND 40S ACRS VT). SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY. CAPES OF                 
1000+ J/KG TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA (FROM THE CHAMP VLY EASTWARD)              
TODAY. LTG DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING N-NE ACRS SRN VT             
ATTM. HAVE ADDED A CHC FOR TSRA TO SRN/ERN VT ZONES FOR THE REST OF             
TODAY. GOOD LOW-LVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA              
TODAY. PW VALUES APPEAR TO BE 1"-1.25" FOR THE REST OF TODAY. ANOTHER           
INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA TODAY. BRUNT OF RAIN                  
EXPECTED FROM THE NRN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF TODAY.               
50+KT JET AT H85 TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TODAY. KCXX VWP SHOWS                
50 KTS AT 3-4KFT ATTM. EXPECT HIR WINDS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE            
HIGHEST TRRN TODAY. STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE A BETTER CHC AT MIXING              
DOWN ACRS THE FA AS THE FRONT MOVES ON BY TONITE THOUGH. WILL CONT              
WIND ADVISORY INTO TONITE ACRS ALL ZONES.                                       
FLOOD THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST FROM MY PERSPECTIVE.                
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THIS MORNING LOOKED TO BE 0.2"-1.0". 1"                 
AMTS WERE NOT WIDESPREAD THOUGH. TEMPS IN THE VT MTNS LOOK TO BE TOO            
COLD STILL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT JUST DUE TO TEMPS. RAINFALL             
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS MOST LIKELY HAS ADDED SOME AMT OF WATER TO             
WATERWAYS IN VT THOUGH. ON THE NY SIDE...THINGS ARE A DIFFERENT                 
STORY. WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 50S ARE MOST LIKELY ADDING A FAIR AMT            
OF WATER TO RIVERS AND STREAMS OUT THAT WAY. WILL BE MONITORING RIVER           
LEVELS AT THE FOLLOWING GAGES IN PARTICULAR: ASFN6...PBGN6...CENV1...           
NHVV1...AND MOOV1. WILL DIGEST RFC DATA FROM MORNING RUNS AND ISSUE             
AN FFS A LIL LATER ON FLOOD THREAT.                                             
FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FIRST PERIOD TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS TRENDS.             
ADDED MENTION OF SOME FOG ACRS AREAS THAT HAVE SNOWCOVER BASED ON               
PAST EXPERIENCES DRIVING THROUGH AREAS WITH RAINFALL OVER SNOWCOVER.            
FEW COSMETIC CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS AS WELL.                                  
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY AROUND 11 AM.                      
.BTV...WIND ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT NYZ026>031-034-035-VTZ001>012.                
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
345 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS IN THE SHORT TERM PD...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EARLY            
TDA THEN HOW MUCH WL IT BE BLOWN AROUND BY INCREASING NW WINDS.                 
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP FM NR LNK THRU OMA INTO WCNTRL              
IA...VERY SIMILAR TO LAST SUN NGT/MON AM...AIDED BY UPR DIFLUENCE               
WITH UPR JET COUPLING PLUS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.  BOTH OF THESE              
FORCING FEATURES SHIFT EWD RATHER RAPIDLY AFT 12Z.  HOWEVER...                  
SNOWFALL RATES WERE ARND 1 INCH PER HR IN THE HEAVIER BANDS WITH                
SNOW PRBLY LASTING THRU 12-13Z IN LNK AND 13-15Z IN OMAHA.  THIS                
SHOULD PROVIDE STORM TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3-5 INCHES AROUND LNK UP TO             
4 TO 6 INCHES FM OMA NEWD...SPCLY IF RUCS IDEA OF SHIFTING THE QPF              
INTO NRN ZONES VERIFIES.  WITH WSHFT VSBYS BRIEFLY DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN         
BLSN AT OFK...AND WOULD LOOK FOR REDUCED VSBYS IN BLSN MUCH OF TDA.             
WND CHILLS WILL ALSO FALL...BUT PRBLY WON'T REACH ADVSRY LEVELS N               
TIL NOON OR LATER AND S LATER IN THE AFTN IF AT ALL.  PRETTY MUCH AS            
EXPECTED YDA...SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYS IS MORE THAN SAT BUT WINDS AND            
WIND CHILLS AREN'T AS QUITE AS BAD.  QUESTION IS WL THEY BE BAD                 
ENOUGH FOR WARNING VS. ADVSRY.  SINCE AMOUNTS WL APPROACH 4-6 INCHES            
ARND OMAHA AND 3-5 IN LNK...WL EXTEND CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING              
SW TO INCLUDE OMAHA...LNK AND SEWARD AND SALINE COUNTIES.  WITH NO              
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET WHICH OCCURRED BFR THE WINDS ON SAT...AND             
MORE FRESH POWDER...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH BLOWING TO GREATLY REDUCE             
VSBYS EVEN IF AMOUNTS DON'T VERIFY.  WOULD EXPECT WARNING MAY HAVE              
TO BE DOWNGRADED LATER TDA AS SNOW TAPERS/ENDS BUT WON'T SPLIT IT UP            
IN MORNING ZONES IN CASE BLOWING RMNS SUBSTANTIAL ALL DAY.                      
BYND TDA...FCST LOOKD PRETTY GOOD FOR TNGT AND TUE WITH DECREASING              
WNDS TNGT AND RTN FLOW AGAIN ON TUE.  WL LOWER TEMPS A LTL E/SE TNGT            
AND HIGHS A LTL ON TUE BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL FRESH SNOW.                        
NEXT SYS TO AFFECT ZONES WED IN EXTENDED FCST AS PTN CONTS                      
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THRU END OF WK.                                            
.OMA...WINTER STORM WARNING...TODAY SEWARD AND SALINE COUNTIES NE               
       THRU CUMING...DODGE...SAUNDERS...LANCASTER...CASS...SARPY                
       ...DOUGLAS...WASHINGTON...AND BURT COUNTIES IN NEBR AND                  
       POTTAWATTAMIE...SHELBY...HARLAN AND MONONA COUNTIES IN IA.               
CHERMOK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
1000 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                     
FRONT AS OF 15Z WAS NEAR A TYR/FSM LINE AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS                 
FRONT EXITING ALL BUT MY EXTREME EASTERN THIRD BY 21Z THIS AFTN.                
MOISTURE ADVECTED NORTH IN ABUNDANCE...JUST AS THE ETA SAID IT WOULD            
WITH 88D SHOWING LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ALONG AN                       
ELD/SHV/LFK LINE.                                                               
SOME "UP" OR LIGHT SLEET REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR IN ELD BUT               
BRIEF ENOUGH NOT TO BE MISSED IN CURRENT ZONES. CLOUDS CLEARING                 
RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS E TX/SE OK SO WILL NEED TO UPDATE            
FOR THIS. THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY SO WILL WORD CLEARING AREAS AS PC.              
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO NEAR 25KTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SO              
15 TO 25 AND GUSTY WILL WORK IN ZONES. MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPS HERE            
AND THERE AS WELL BUT SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PARTIAL WARMUP BEHIND              
FRONT. UPDATE OUT BY 1100 AM.                                                   
13                                                                              
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1117 AM EST MON DEC 18 2000                                                     
WILL OPT TO UPDATE GOING ZFP TO DROP WIND ADVISORY AND MAKE A FEW               
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
STRONG STORM SYS TO CONT TO TRACK ACRS EXTREME ERN QUE TODAY. SFC               
PRESS GRADIENT TO DECREASE TODAY. WK SFC (AND UPR) HI PRESS RIDGE TO            
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND THE FA TONITE. ANOTHER...              
WEAKER...STORM SYS TO TRACK DOWN THE OH VLY TONITE. UPR TROF (AND               
ASSOCIATED TROP FOLD) TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TONITE.                 
09Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS HANGIN' TUFF AT 15-25 DEG F TODAY. T1MAX TEMPS              
ARE 25-30. MESONET OBS INDICATE THAT READINGS HAVEN/T ROSE MUCH FROM            
OVRNITE LOWS LAST NITE. WILL CONT IDEA OF WORDING TODAY/S HIGHS AS              
"TEMPERATURES" INSTEAD OF ACTUAL HIGHS. WESTERLY SFC FLOW TO DIMINISH           
TO 5-15 KTS BY LATER TODAY. MID-LVLS DRY TODAY. LOW-LVLS TO DRY OUT             
AFTER 18Z TODAY. LES LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE FA TODAY. RUC INDICATES THAT ANY PCPN THAT/S LINGERING ACRS THE             
REGION WILL CONT TO DIMINISH THRU 18Z. WILL CONT WITH SOME                      
-SHSN/FLURRIES ACRS MOSTLY THE HIR TRRN INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.                 
H85 JET MAX WELL TO THE NE OF THE FA ATTM...SO WILL DROP WIND                   
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY. STRONG H85 CAA ACRS THE FA TODAY...WK           
CAA EARLY TONITE FOLLOWED BY NEUTRAL ADVECTION LATER TONITE. MID-LVL            
MOISTURE TO RETURN ACRS NRN NY STATE LATER TONITE. LOW-LVLS TO REMAIN           
DRY THOUGH. PCPN SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE FA TONITE. WILL KEEP            
MOST OF THE CLDS ON THE NY SIDE OVRNITE TONITE.                                 
FEW TWEAKS TO GOING FIRST PERIOD WINDS TO KEEP FRESH. REST OF CHANGES           
TO GOING ZFP MOSTLY COSMETIC.                                                   
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACRS PARTS OF THE HSA ATTM...MOSTLY DUE TO             
WIDESPREAD 2-3" OF RAIN ACRS ERN/SRN VT. SEE PNSBTV FOR STORM TOTALS            
AND FLSBTV/FLWBTV FOR UPDATES ON ANY FLOODING.                                  
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY AROUND 1130 AM.                    
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
928 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                      
...SNOWFALL INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...                              
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING ENHANCED COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS IOWA...               
MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN.  THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NOSE OF             
THE 300-500 MB ADVECTION OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND AGEOSTROPHIC                
DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JETS.  THE LATEST ETA AND RUC MODELS SHOW               
THIS AREA BEING MAXIMIZED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE WE ALREADY             
HAVE 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THIS MORNING IN MOST PLACES.  LAPS                    
TIME/HEIGHT DATA SHOWING SNOW MAINLY DENDRITES WITH 15-20 TO 1                  
RATIOS EXPECTED.  THIS IS NOT COMFORTING GIVEN SOME OF THE                      
ALARMING LIQUID AMOUNTS PRODUCED BY THE RUC AND ETA.  GIVEN THESE...            
WILL UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH 6 TO 8 (CONSERVATIVE                
ESTIMATE) INCHES EXPECTED.                                                      
COORDINATED WITH MKX/MPX/DMX/DVN/GRB.                                           
.LSE...WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...IAZ008>001-018-              
       019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041>044-           
       053>055-061.                                                             
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1030 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                     
UPDATING WSWILX AND ZFPILX AS SNOW SETTING IN LATER THAN EARLIER                
EXPECTED. DRY THROUGH NOON ACROSS MUCH OF CWA...THEN SNOW TO SPREAD             
IN FROM W-E DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SNOW ADVISORY THIS             
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR 3-5 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MENTION LATE             
THIS AFTERNOON STARTING SNOW ADVISORY EASTCENTRAL IL BY KCMI/KDNV.              
WILL INCREASE WINDS BY AT LEAST 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                
AND MENTION BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT.                                  
SNOW JUST STARTING TO ENTER W IL FROM KUIN TO KMLI AROUND 10 AM                 
WHILE STILL SOME SUNSHINE PEAKING THROUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS EAST CWA.            
16Z/10 AM TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED TO AROUND 15 WITH NW IL BY KGBG/KMLI              
AT 10-12. WINDS ESE 9-18 MPH.                                                   
NEW RUC AND MESOETA START SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHING E OF I-57            
AFTER 21Z/3 PM. 1011 MB LOW JUST NE OF KSGF IN SW MO LIFTS ENE TO               
1009 MB TO BETWEEN KDEC/KMTO BY 00Z/TUE. BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW             
POSSIBLE BY 6 PM WITH SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF             
10 TO 20 MPH. ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO             
FLURRIES BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WINDS TO TURN NW BY MIDNIGHT                
ACROSS CWA AND INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY CAUSING MORE BLOWING             
AND DRIFTING. WIND CHILLS TO DROP BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO                  
OVERNIGHT AND CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS LOWS REACH               
5-10 NORTH OF I-70 AND 10-15 SOUTH.                                             
.ILX...SNOW ADVSORY FOR ALL BUT 6 SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW.                                   
$$                                                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
231 PM EST MON DEC 18 2000                                                      
19Z SFC MAP ALG W SAT INDICATING ELONGATED SFC LOW OVR E MO. PRIMARY            
LOW IN THE PROCESS OF DVLPG IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SW TROF OVR SW MO.              
SECONDARY LEAD SW TROF IN ASSOC/W MID-UPR LVL CIRC OVR S IA                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR DECENT SWATH OF SNOW ACRS E NE AND IA. HWVR                     
DEFORMATION ZONE HAD WKND THIS AM AS LEAD SW GETS ABSORBED INTO MID             
LVL CIRC. 18Z RUC VRY SIMILAR TO 12Z ETA IN ITS MID LVL LOW                     
PLACEMENT 06Z TUE.                                                              
12Z MODELS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LG SCALE. MAIN CONTENTION ATTM              
IS AMT OF MOISTR WORKING INTO THIS SYS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY PLACEMENT           
OF MODEL QPF. ETA HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL LAST WEEK WITH ALL                  
THESE STORMS. BOTHERSOME THING ABT THE ETA IS ITS QPF MAX NR .30 INCH           
OVR SE CORNER OF CWA OVERNIGHT. ITS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN INITIALLY OPEN H5           
LOW CLOSING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND THAN DEEPENING AS IT MOVES INTO              
IL. AS THIS OCCURS...PRETTY GOOD BACKING TO OCCUR TO THE HGHT FIELD             
AHD OF MID LVL LOW AND PROXIMITY OF NOSE OF LOW LVL JET AND MOIST               
AXIS UP TO OH RVR ATTM...MAKE A JUSTIFIABLE CASE FOR THAT QPF PROG.             
GIVEN VRY COLD BNDRY LYR IN PLACE AND VRY FVRBL THERMAL PROFILE FOR             
DENDRITES...SWE OF AT LEAST 20:1 COULD BRING NR WARNING CRITERIA SE             
HALF. ON THE OTHER HAND...AVN/ETA DEPICT MID LVL DRY SLOT WORKING               
THRU SAME AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAIN THOSE QPF AMOUNTS.             
OTHERWISE NW THIRD CLOSE TO MID LVL LOW TRACK AND FALL UNDER LK                 
EFFECT SNOWBAND UMBRELLA TOMORROW SO WARNING NEEDED THERE. LK                   
ENHANCED SNOW TRANSITION WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY LTR TONIGHT AS H8 TROF              
PASSES AND INVERSION HGHTS INCREASING TO NR 10 KFT TOMORROW. LITTLE             
SHEAR WITHIN CLD LYR SO XPC LK INDUCED THERMAL TROFFING AND 340                 
DEGREE OR SO FETCH EARLY TO ALLOW SINGLE SHORE PARALLE BAND TO DVLP.            
THIS BAND WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY AS SYS PULLS OFF TO THE NE              
AND WINDS BACK INTO THE AFTERNOON.                                              
SECOND DRAFT INDMISFWA WORKZONE SET OUT IN A FEW MINUTES.                       
FOR NOW AM LEANING TOWARD WINTER WX ADVISORY SE THIRD...BUFFERED                
BY SNOW ADVISORY CENTRAL...AND WARNING NW THIRD. HWVR WILL WAIT TO              
SEE 18Z MESOETA AND SAT/RADAR TRENDS BEFORE MAKING FINAL                        
DECISION ON HEADLINES.                                                          
.IWX...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NW THIRD...                    
...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING CENTRAL...                            
...WINTER WX ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING SE THIRD...                      
TEH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1150 AM EST MON DEC 18 2000                                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN AND HAS BECOME LIGHT SNOW OR             
FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SYSTEM SNOW IS STARTING TO MAKE IT                
INTO THE AREA WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT LDM AND RQB AND KAPX 88D              
SHOWING THAT THE SNOW IS BEGINNING IN MANISTEE COUNTY AND A SNOW                
SPOTTER IN MANISTEE HAS REPORTED FLURRIES THERE NOW. 12Z ETA AND RUC            
ARE IN LINE AND SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO N LOWER                    
MICHIGAN. SO HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS N LOWER AND E UPPER.                
.APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MIZ031>034-041.   
       WINTER STORM WATCH...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...                              
       MIZ023-024-029-030-035-036-042.                                          
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
300 PM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                      
...ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT...                             
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD               
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE            
FRONT MOVES ACROSS MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL             
INCREASE AND WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NORTHWESTERLY AT             
15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN               
STRONG UNTIL LATE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE                
AFTERNOON HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE              
RAIN IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE RAIN SHOULD             
EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES BY MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO THE            
LATEST RUC MODEL. DUE TO HIGH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THE              
RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES...WE ARE GOING TO ISSUE ADVISORIES                
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES              
AND FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 0 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. BOTH ADVISORIES ARE             
LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE GRADIENT WILL            
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.                                                
FOR THE COLD AIR MOVING IN TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...BELIEVE             
AVN GUIDANCE AND ETA 2M TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK WITH THE EXTREMELY            
COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AND FOR THE NEAR RECORD LOW              
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL              
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S IN MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ZONES               
AND ONLY INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. ON TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...EXPECT NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES               
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                                                
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN                  
WESTERN ZONES. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW IN THE               
NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.               
24 HOUR QPF: NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED.                                       
EXTENDED FORECAST...NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES FROM                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EVENT COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW IN               
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. AVN                
MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES INDICATE ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY ON FRIDAY             
WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEK-END. DON'T SEE             
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TILL AT LEAST CHRISTMAS DAY.            
SO FAR DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR                    
CHRISTMAS DAY TO INTRODUCE IT INTO THE FORECAST. MRF KEEPS MAIN                 
CHANCE OF RAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AT THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
JAN 023/027 012/040 1000                                                        
MEI 023/027 011/040 4-00                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR ASHLEY            
AND CHICOT COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                       
LA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR                   
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA ZONES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                 
MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR ALL OF            
OUR MISSISSIPPI ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
238 PM EST MON DEC 18 2000                                                      
.TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY DISCUSSION:                                                  
CLOUDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO CAE CWA FROM THE WEST. WV               
LOOP AND MODELS APPROACH SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. RUC                  
BRINGS BAND OF MOISTURE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY 03Z WEST OF              
HERE IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ALABAMA. RUC DOES AT            
THAT TIME DEVELOP GULF LOW JUST SOUTH OF MOBILE. MESOETA BRINGS SHORT           
WAVE INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. THEN BECOMES NEGATIVELY            
TILTED BETWEEN 18Z-21Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SWINGS THROUGH BY 03Z              
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. MESOETA H8 HAS WAA OVER CAE CWA AT 03Z EARLY               
TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP WARM THE ATMOSPHERE UP AHEAD OF THE                     
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM AND DECREASE THE CHANCES OF FROZEN PRECIP            
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY. H8 WAA ADVECTION CUTS OFF             
THOUGH AROUND 09Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH JUST NEUTRAL ADVECTION             
AFTER THEN. H8 CAA BY 15Z LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND BY THAT TIME                 
PTYPE SCHEMES AND BUFKIT INDICATE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW CAE AND                 
NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX SOUTH PART. WITH LOWS                    
EXPECTED AT OR BELOW 32...PATCHY LIGHT PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS LIGHT                
FREEZING RAIN CAE AND TO THE NORTH. BUT IT WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG              
AND WILL BECOME JUST RAIN SHORTLY AFTER 7 AM. IN THE SOUTH PART (IE             
AGS AND OGB) IT WILL BEGIN AS RAIN WITH TEMPS ALREADY ABOVE 32.                 
LATER ON AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN ALOFT...THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MIXED            
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL                   
MENTION LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING                  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE SITUATION IS NOT SIGNIFICANT SNOW                 
EVENT. WILL ISSUE SPS TO THE PUBLIC JUST TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY             
OF A LITTLE SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS              
OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST IT WILL BE              
DRY AND COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL BE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS BUT             
WILL CUT HIGHS QUITE A BIT TUESDAY.                                             
.EXTENDED:                                                                      
.THU AND FRI...SHORT WAVE AND CDFNT APCH BUT WX LOOKS DRY.                      
.SAT AND CHRISTMAS EVE...COLD HIGH PRESS.                                       
.CHRISTMAS DAY...HIGH PRESS WITH TEMPS MODIFYING IN THE PM.                     
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
CAE   30  39  21  42 /  20  80   0   0                                          
AGS   32  43  21  45 /  20  80   0   0                                          
SSC   32  41  22  44 /  20  80   0   0                                          
OGB   33  42  23  45 /  20  80   0   0                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1036 AM CST MON DEC 18 2000                                                     
SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER               
THE BIG COUNTRY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO OVER THE REMAINDER OF WC            
TX...AS DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. 15Z RUC AND 12Z MESO ETA INDICATE                 
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE                   
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL            
WORD AS SUCH IN AN UPCOMING ZONE UPDATE. REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON            
TARGET AT THIS TIME.                                                            
.SJT...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.                           
14                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx