PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 08 2004
 
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 14 - 18 2004
         .         .         .         .         .         .       .

AN INSPECTION OF MODEL RUNS FOR BOTH TODAY AND YESTERDAY INDICATES
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER THE NORTH AMER-
ICAN SECTOR DURING DAYS 6-10.  THERE ARE ENOUGH DISCREPANCIES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS FORECAST...AND MANY
OF THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING WEAK TO VERY WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE CONUS.  IN A VERY GENERAL SENSE...THE KEY FEATURES OF
THE MEAN CIRCULATION FOR DAYS 6-10 INCLUDE ANOMALOUS RIDGING SOUTH 
OF THE ALEUTIANS... TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND JUST 
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST... A TROUGH OVER THE U.S. MIDWEST... 
AND WEAK RIDGES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OR NORTHERN ROCKIES 
AND OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC POKING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA. 
A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH WAS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS JUST SOUTHEAST 
OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  MANY MODELS... THE ECMWF AND DAVA 
EXCEPTED... ARE INDICATING A GENERAL AREA OF WEAKLY BELOW NORMAL 
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NEAR THE GULF COAST.  THIS IS CONSI-
DERED REASONABLE... GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN 
THAT GENERAL AREA.
 
THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TO-
DAYS EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7... 20 PERCENT OF
TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 5 PERCENT OF TO-
DAYS CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 10 PERCENT EACH 
OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND YESTERDAYS 
OPERATIONAL 12 AND 18Z RUNS CENTERED ON DAY 7... 20 PERCENT OF 
TODAYS OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS RUN... AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS OPERA-
TIONAL ECMWF RUN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: NO STRONG PREFERENCE BUT ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS GIVEN SLIGHTLY GREATER WEIGHTS DUE TO HAVING THE BEST 500
-HPA ANOMALY CORRELATIONS OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST FEW 
MONTHS.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE 
TODAY... 2 ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.  THERE ARE MANY RELATIVELY
SMALL INTER-MODEL DIFFERENCES WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST HEIGHT PROG.  IN ADDITION... MOST OF 
TODAYS MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WAS INDICATED 
YESTERDAY.  SINCE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS RATHER ZONAL...TELECON-
NECTIONS ARE NOT TOO HELPFUL SINCE THEY USUALLY WORK BEST WITH 
MORE AMPLIFIED WAVETRAINS.    

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOGS 
TO THE 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT PROG.  THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS 
DID NOT APPEAR REASONABLE INDICATING ANOMALOUS WARMTH OVER ALMOST 
THE ENTIRE CONUS. BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 
0Z GFS WERE ALSO CONSIDERED.  IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE CDC CALI-
BRATED REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL AND BIAS-CORRECTED MODEL OUTPUT
FROM THE 0Z GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON NEURAL NET SPECI-
FICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...ANALOGS TO THE 500-HPA 
BLENDED HEIGHT PROG...AND THE CDC CALIBRATED REFORECAST PRECIPI-
TATION TOOL.

       .         .         .         .         .         .         .
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 16 - 22 2004

DURING WEEK 2 THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATES A GENERAL PROGRES-
SION OF THE PATTERN PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  THIS IS 
QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE RATHER ZONAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL PAT-
TERN...BUT (AS USUAL) THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE
EVEN GREATER DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY 
PERIOD.  THE ANOMALY FIELD OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS QUITE WEAK
OVERALL...ANOTHER INDICATION OF A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND RELATIVE-
LY HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. 

THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 15 PERCENT EACH OF THE 0Z 
GFS AND 06Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...  15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 
18Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 10... 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS 12Z GFS 
CENTERED ON DAY 10... AS WELL AS 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF ENSEM-
BLE MEAN AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAYS ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION RUN CENTER-
ED ON DAY 7.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE 
... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5... PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY WEAK ANOMALY 
PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... WHICH IS ORDINARILY 
THE BEST HEIGHT FIELD AT THE 814 DAY RANGE.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL
NET...AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND.
IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE BIAS-CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURE ANOM-
ALIES FROM THE 0Z GFS...AND THE CDC CALIBRATED REFORECAST TEMPER-
ATURE TOOL. 

THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CPC AND EMC 
CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEM-
BERS...  THE ANALOG TOOL AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND... AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION
FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS.  IT IS ALSO BASED ON THE CDC CALI-
BRATED REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL. 

FORECASTER: A. J. WAGNER
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
NOTES: 

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS. 

EFFECTIVE THURSDAY MAY 17 2001...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
HAS SWITCHED TO 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...
PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE
OUTLOOKS.  THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS HAVE REPLACED THE
1961-1990 BASE PERIOD MEANS.
 
THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED THURSDAY
JUNE 17.





NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19880523 - 19960602 - 19880612 - 19870603 - 19850523
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890615 - 19890612 - 19770531 - 19610523 - 19960601
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 14 - 18, 2004
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    N    B     
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N     
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N     
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     N    B     
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    N    N     
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   A    A     
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A     
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A     
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N     
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N     
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A     
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     B    N     
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    B     
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    N     
 
 
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 16 - 22, 2004
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N     
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    N     
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B     
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A     
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N     
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B     
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N     
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    A     
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    A    A     
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A     
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    N     
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N     
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N     
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N     
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N     
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N     
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    B     
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    N     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$