AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
930 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                      
ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER SRN FL AND A WEAK FRONT OVER NRN             
GA AND OVER CAROLINAS. WITH LITTLE PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT AM NOT                 
EXPECTING THE ACTUAL FRONT TO MAKE IT INTO THE CWA. WINDS ARE WLY               
AND SHOULD SHIFT TO NW TO N THIS AFTN AS A WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OFF              
THE GA COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE              
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL GA AREA.              
JAX SOUNDING INDICATES PWAT 0.56 INCHES AND W TO NW FLOW IN LOW                 
LEVELS. SOME MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB MAY DEVELOP SOME CU THIS AFTN.               
SEA BREEZE WILL BRING WINDS BACK TO ELY ALONG THE COAST.                        
CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE REQUIRED.                      
MARINE...CWF PACKAGE LOOKS FINE.                                                
.JAX...                                                                         
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                                
VFR NEXT 24HRS. RIDGE ACROSS MI/IN MOVES EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.                
SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE THIS MORNING TURNS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING A WEAK LAKE BREEZE BY 20-22Z TO SHIFT                   
WINDS ESE AT ORD/MDW. WINDS GO BACK SSE OVERNIGHT THEN SSW MID TO               
LATE MORNING MONDAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS BY END OF THE              
PERIOD.                                                                         
CMS                                                                             
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS OUR                
NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE RIDGE               
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A LOCALIZED WIND OFF THE LAKE TODAY.              
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A CLASSIC ORGANIZED LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AS            
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE QUASI ONSHORE               
FLOW.                                                                           
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SE.                
ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNTS IN THE 975 TO             
900 MB LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RUC THEATA-E CROSS                       
SECTIONS...WHICH SHOW MIXING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL REACH 925 MB BY            
1 PM AND 850 MB BY 4 PM. WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 8 AND 9                 
C...LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                         
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
940 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                      
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE                                              
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOSING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS OUR                
NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THE RIDGE               
THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A LOCALIZED WIND OFF THE LAKE TODAY.              
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A CLASSIC ORGANIZED LAKE BREEZE FROM FORMING AS            
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE QUASI ONSHORE               
FLOW.                                                                           
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SE.                
ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNTS IN THE 975 TO             
900 MB LAYER WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTH.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ADJUSTED BASED ON RUC THEATA-E CROSS                       
SECTIONS...WHICH SHOW MIXING AWAY FROM THE LAKE WILL REACH 925 MB BY            
1 PM AND 850 MB BY 4 PM. WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 8 AND 9                 
C...LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.                         
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                                
OTHER THAN A LITTLE FOG AT GYY WITH 5SM WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISIPATE             
NOTHING ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER NICE SPRING DAY. MODELS SHOW WIND BY                 
AFTERNOON SSE. WITH A E COMPONENT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE            
IN TO MDW-ORD LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN OUT IN EVE AS WINDS TURN MORE             
SSW. JUST SOME CI LATE AND MAYBE A FEW AFTERNOON CU AT RFD.                     
AF                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1044 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND CLDS OVRNGT.                                   
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW JUST              
OFF NRN CA COAST WITH UPR RIDGE DOMINATING CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE             
LIFTING NE INTO MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING SOME SCT LIGHT            
SHOWERS OVR CNTRL MANITOBA. SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WAA MID AND HI              
CLDS AHD OF THIS SHRTWV CONTINUING TO SPILL OVR RDG INTO UPR                    
MI...BUT WX REMAINS DRY THIS EVNG.                                              
AREA 00Z SNDGS REVEAL PROHIBITIVELY DRY AMS (FM SFC TO NR 600 MB)               
FOR PCPN TO OCCUR...DESPITE RATHER STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF              
8C/KM OR GREATER AND 50 KT LOW LVL JET NOSING INTO FORECAST AREA FM             
KMPX. GOING DRY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.                                          
INCREASING SFC PRES GRADIENT/STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN                
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVRNGT...ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALG LAKE            
SUPERIOR. THIS MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FROM PRESENT            
READINGS.                                                                       
CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS OF MID 50S WEST...MID 40S CNTRL AND MID 30S              
EAST...STILL LOOKS GENLY ON TARGET BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. MAY NEED TO       
AMEND ERN COUNTIES TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT                 
OTHERWISE REST OF COUNTIES LOOK GOOD.                                           
.MQT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY MIZ009>012.                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS RISE MON IN SUMMER LIKE              
WARMTH...THEN TIMING OF COLD FRONT MON NIGHT/TUE AND PCPN COVERAGE.             
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW JUST OFF W COAST              
WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE DOMINATING CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE            
INTO SCNTRL CANADA WAS PRODUCING SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS SRN MANITOBA.             
CLOSER TO HOME...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME LEADING TO BKN MID                
CLOUD DECK AND RADAR ECHOES ACROSS NRN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI.               
VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS PER 12Z KGRB/KINL SOUNDINGS KEEPING PCPN LIMITED            
TO NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES. EVEN A FEW ICE PELLETS OBSERVED                 
EARLIER HERE AT THE OFFICE. 12Z RAOBS SHOW IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR OVER             
DAKOTAS WITH 850MB TEMPS AT KUNR/KABR/KBIS AT +19/+20/+21C                      
RESPECTIVELY. AT THE SFC...20Z TEMPS WERE WELL INTO 80S TO NEAR 90              
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN...A SIGN OF WHAT IS ON THE WAY FOR MON.               
LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH                  
POLAR VORTEX DROPPING TO HUDSON BAY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT FLOW               
BTWN NRN AND SRN BRANCHES SETTLING FARTHER S TOWARD UPPER LAKES.                
THIS IN TURN LEADS TO MORE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS                        
ONTARIO/UPPER LAKES AND SUPPRESSION OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW             
EJECTING FROM SW. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL INDICATE A LOT OF                      
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE LIKELY SHARP NRN EDGE OF PCPN WILL SET              
UP MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...CHANGES TO GOING FCST WILL BE MINOR UNTIL             
SITUATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.                                                 
MODELS STILL SHOW 45-60KT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS FCST AREA                 
TONIGHT BELOW STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM. BEST                    
CONVERGENCE/THETA-E ADV TENDS TO BE FOCUSED N OF UPPER MI NEAR NOSE             
OF JET...BUT CERTAINLY NOT UNCOMMON TO GET SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP            
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF JET AXIS. DRY LOW-LEVELS PROBABLY MAKE THIS LESS            
OF A POSSIBILITY AND WILL THUS LEAVE GOING DRY FCST FOR TONIGHT.                
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH. INCREASING SFC PRES            
GRADIENT/STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS                  
DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS                
FROM FALLING MUCH...AND IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ACROSS             
W AND N...AND ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS.                                    
SUMMERLIKE WARMTH STILL ON TRACK FOR MON. CONSENSUS ON 850MB TEMPS              
IS AROUND 14C WHICH TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY MID 70S...BUT ITS NOTED               
THAT MODELS INITIALIZED A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOW ON WARMTH BASED ON              
12Z RAOBS OVER DAKOTAS. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY AFTN...             
SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS OVER WRN PLAINS AND SOLID SW/WSW FLOW...               
75-80 SHOULD BE COMMON AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN INFLUENCE WITH                   
HIGHEST READINGS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. ONLY POTENTIAL                     
COMPLICATION WOULD BE CLOUD COVER AS 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A BIT MORE             
MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN ADDITION...               
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS TO TRACK INTO UPPER LAKES...AND ETA/GFS/NGM                 
GENERATE SOME PCPN OVER OR VERY NEAR FCST AREA IN THE AFTN. NOT SOLD            
ON THIS GIVEN A CONTINUED LACK OF GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL SFC            
DWPTS RISING TO 50F OR BETTER OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA              
LOOK MUCH TOO HIGH...SO POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD              
OF COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING S TOWARD UPPER MI SHOULD BE VERY                  
LIMITED. SEEMS MORE LIKELY PCPN WOULD BE FOCUSED JUST BEHIND                    
BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WHERE MOISTURE/LIFT IS              
MAXIMIZED.                                                                      
MON NIGHT...ETA TREND WITH FRONT IS NOTABLY SLOWER. 00Z RUN HAD                 
FRONT NEAR KMKE BY 12Z TUE. 12Z RUN HAS IT NEAR KMNM AT 12Z TUE.                
WILL THUS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER MORE CONSISTENT                          
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS. WILL GENERALLY CARRY CHC POPS                     
ALONG/BEHIND FRONT. TUE HIGHS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...                   
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS NE WINDS LOCK IN ACROSS THE LAKE.              
FCST GETS QUITE COMPLICATED TUE NIGHT/WED AS THERE IS MUCH                      
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW DOMINANT NRN STREAM WILL BE IN SUPPRESSING SRN               
STREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS AFFECTS CRITICAL PLACEMENT OF STRONG                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LAKES AND THUS PTYPE AND LOCATION OF                 
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PCPN. GFS IS FARTHEST N AND HAS 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES             
OF PCPN FROM TUE EVENING TO THU MORNING...OF WHICH HALF WOULD                   
PROBABLY BE SNOW/SLEET. EVEN THOUGH CANADIAN IS FARTHER S...IT ALSO             
BRINGS SIGNIFICANT PCPN INTO UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. UKMET FOCUSES ITS              
HEAVIER PCPN FROM SRN MN TO NRN LWR MI TUE NIGHT. DIFFICULT TO                  
ASSESS WHICH MODEL MAY HAVE THE EDGE...BUT TREND HAS BEEN FOR                   
INCREASED HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER ONTARIO UNDER STRONGER NRN BRANCH.            
RESULTING ERLY FEED OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHARP              
NRN EDGE OF PCPN. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE GOING FCST              
AS IS (LIKELY POPS TUE NIGHT/WED) UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS                  
DEVELOPS...BUT FEELING IS POPS WILL NEED TO BE CUT BACK...ESPECIALLY            
N. RAIN WILL MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE AS COLD AIR                  
DEEPENS.                                                                        
THU-SUN...GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECWMF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS             
PERIOD. SRN STREAM SYSTEM DISCUSSED ABOVE FOR WED WILL BEGIN TO EXIT            
AREA THU WITH LINGERING PCPN DIMINISHING. WILL PLAN FOR A DRY DAY               
FRI...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO NEW TROF DEVELOPING OVER WRN CONUS.               
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON POSITION OF TROF AXIS FRI/SAT.                 
HOWEVER...00Z GFS IS QUICKER WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTING NE                 
TOWARD UPPER MIDWEST BY SAT MORNING WITH PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS               
FCST AREA SAT. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES/06Z GFS DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH QUICK              
MOVEMENT AND THIS IS PREFERRED BY HPC. WILL HOLD ONTO DRY WEATHER               
SAT AND THEN INTRODUCE CHC POPS ON SUN AS SYSTEM LIFTS INTO MID                 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                             
.MQT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY MIZ009>012.                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1114 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS               
PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE             
LOOP SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF MID CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR             
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO             
PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ATOP THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.                    
SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE SHOWN THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY WORK                 
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DRIER AIR OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE                   
CURRENT RUC AND MESO ETA SOLUTIONS INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE            
THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. SO I THINK OUTSIDE OF SOME SCATTERED MID               
CLOUDS IN THE THUMB...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. BASED            
ON THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS...THE GOING FORECAST HIGHS LOOK               
GOOD. SO NO UPDATED GRIDS OR ZFPDTX WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.                
CONSIDINE                                                                       
............PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.........                 
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS EAST                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH FAIRLY BRISK WESTERLIES ALOFT BRINGING COLD            
FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKES REGION MONDAY...THEN MODELS REASONABLY                 
DEPICT FRONT BECOMING ALIGNED MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS GREAT LAKES              
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE SAGGING SOUTH. ETA STILL FASTER IN               
MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH THAN GFS AS ETA SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT...                
AHEAD OF WESTERN TROUGH MOVING IN LATER IN WEEK...A LITTLE SHARPER.             
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL               
ALSO HELP SUPPRESS FRONT SOUTH...WITH GFS BRINGING VIGOROUS SURFACE             
WAVE INTO SOUTHERN LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY.                                    
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...SHOW GFS                 
FASTER IN MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GREAT                       
LAKES...THOUGH SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL CONSIDERABLY            
SLOWER THAN ETA WHICH HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS.                  
ALSO...MODELS SHOW SLOWER TREND OF INCOMING MID LEVEL ENERGY AND                
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CHURNING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID             
WEEK AND EVENTUALLY REACHING LAKES REGION. WILL GO ALONG WITH FASTER            
GFS TRENDS FOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT YET READY YET TO GO AS FAST              
AS ETA.                                                                         
GENERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TO CONTINUE            
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EVEN PREVAILING MONDAY. GFS PRETTY MUCH HOLDS              
OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT OMEGA LIFT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN WILL MAKE             
FIRST MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDER...A BIT QUICKER THAN EARLIER                   
FORECAST. DEEPER MOISTURE...850 TO 500 MB...RATHER MEAGER UNTIL                 
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AS PER GFS...WITH MOSTLY                       
SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR OR AT MOST PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL            
TUESDAY AT LEAST.                                                               
OTHERWISE AS FOR DYNAMICS...                                                    
MODEST 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER             
PUSH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS MAIN WAVE MOVES IN. SURFACE CONVERGENCE              
BECOMING GOOD BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS SAGGING FRONT MOVES IN...SOME                 
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS WELL. MODEST 850 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL                
FORCING MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT TOO...ALONG WITH                 
300K NET ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA LIFT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE              
DEFICITS LOWERING TO UNDER 30 MB MOST AREAS. INSTABILITY INDICATIONS            
TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL PAST MID WEEK RATHER MARGINAL...WITH SURFACE TO             
850 MB LIFTED INDICES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AT BEST...BUT K INDICES                 
CLIMBING TO CLOSE TO 30.                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO EARLIER ZONE PACKAGE AND TO                     
GUIDANCE...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC FLOW EASTERLY COMPONENT BOLSTERED            
BY LAKE BREEZES TODAY TO KEEP AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COOLER.                
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DWD                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
201 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                      
STILL WARM WITH WINDY PERIODS THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE UPPER LOW                
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS CENTRAL PLAINS IN CENTER OF UPPER              
HEIGHT RIDGE. WARMEST AIR HAS BEEN SHOVED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS                
PER H85 CHART THIS MORNING. MODERATE MOISTURE RETURN OF +5-7C H85               
DEWPOINTS INTO OKLAHOMA...WITH SURFACE REFLECTION OF 55 DEWPOINTS               
CROSSING THE RED RIVER AT 14Z. FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER               
THE CWFA...AND RUC40 SAYS THIS WILL HOLD TRUE TODAY ALL AREA EXCEPT             
FAR WESTERN 3 COUNTIES OF NEBRASKA CWFA. ONE WAVE SLIDING ACROSS                
THE AREA BRINING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PER STEEP LAPSE RATES. NEW               
MEXICO WAVE SLIDING EAST SPREADING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR SOUTH WITH            
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOING THE SAME ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.               
CONTINUE WARM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RECORD TERRITORY POSSIBLE             
FOR HASTINGS. SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL REMAIN THE BREEZIEST.                        
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY FORM WEST OF HILL CITY AND WE                
SHOULD SEE SOME BACKING FLOW PULLING MORE MOISTURE IN THE REGION.               
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL NEAR BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN                  
COUNTIES...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60. SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL              
TAKE SHAPE BY EVENING SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS. DAY3              
OUTLOOK HAS GOOD HANDLE ON AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS             
EXPECTED BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN CWFA. DRYLINE WILL TURN INTO                
THE FOCUS THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS               
FOR THE CWFA...WITH 'HIGHER' POPS FAVORING EAST AND NORTH. MODERATELY           
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.                  
WEDNESDAY IS NOTHING BUT COLD ADVECTION...AND WITH UPPER LOW JUST               
TO OUR EAST...THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SEEM IN LINE. MY               
CONCERN IS IT MY COLDER THAN WE HAVE NOW...AS ETA EASILY SWIPES                 
THE 0C H85 LINE INTO THE CWFA. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY                 
A REBOUND OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES WEDNESDAY...AND THAT MAY BE TOO MUCH.             
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THURSDAY IS A DRY DAY. BELIEVE THE GFS                
IS TOO FAST WITH SHORTWAVE KICKING OUT FRIDAY. FAVORING A SLOWER                
EC/CMC RENDITION. HAVE ALIGNED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. STILL                  
HESITANT TO ESSENTIALLY RAIN-OUT THE EASTER WEEKEND. SEEMS THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF SPLIT FLOW SETTING UP IS MORE LIKELY...WHICH TENDS               
TO LEAVE US SEASONAL AND DRIER. ECHO THE MID-SHIFT FORECASTER                   
SAYING "TIME WILL TELL".                                                        
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MORITZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1024 PM CDT SUN 13 APR 2003                                                     
RETREATING DRYLINE WAS LEADING TO WARMER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.             
AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAT                
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE WINDS WERE ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED PER               
CURRENT TRENDS.                                                                 
FCSTID = 08                                                                     
AMARILLO    52 84 53 80 / 00 00 20 20                                           
BEAVER      53 87 55 80 / 00 10 20 20                                           
BOISE CITY  49 81 48 73 / 00 00 20 10                                           
BORGER      53 87 53 80 / 00 00 20 20                                           
BOYS RANCH  50 85 49 79 / 00 00 20 10                                           
CANYON      52 85 50 80 / 00 00 20 10                                           
CLARENDON   58 87 54 82 / 00 10 20 20                                           
DALHART     49 82 48 76 / 00 00 20 10                                           
GUYMON      51 86 52 78 / 00 00 20 20                                           
HEREFORD    51 84 49 78 / 00 00 20 00                                           
LIPSCOMB    58 87 55 81 / 00 10 20 20                                           
PAMPA       57 86 54 82 / 00 00 20 20                                           
SHAMROCK    60 89 55 83 / 00 10 20 20                                           
WELLINGTON  60 89 56 83 / 00 10 20 20                                           
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
====================================================================            
314 PM CDT SUN 13 APR 2003                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR LA JUNTA            
COLORADO. 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH 8H              
DEW POINTS NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS              
PANHANDLE. WEAK DRYLINE IN PLACE TONIGHT. EXPECT 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET            
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO                
MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGED TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT             
AS POWERFUL SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. DECENT CAP IN             
PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION TONIGHT                
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MINOR CU FIELD. WILL GO WITH A DRY               
FIRST PERIOD.                                                                   
DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE               
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WEAK             
MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WELL             
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM.                                                           
TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS 70KT 5H JET APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW               
MEXICO. STRONG DRY/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WINDS LOOK LIKELY. MAY NEED A             
HIGH WIND WATCH MONDAY FOR WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FUTURE SHIFTS              
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT DRYLINE/INSTABILITY               
WILL BE PRETTY WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE            
ADJUSTED DEW POINT GRIDS AND DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST.               
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN.                                 
NEXT DILEMMA IS FOR POST FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. APPEARS              
COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS IN              
THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. TEMPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY.            
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GRIDS. STILL LOTS OF                 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYSTEM TRACK AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY                
PRESENT. HAVE ALSO KEPT 20 POPS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED             
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                             
FCSTID = SLATTERY                                                               
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
314 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                      
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1006 SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR LA JUNTA            
COLORADO. 18Z RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH 8H              
DEW POINTS NEAR 10 DEGREES CELSIUS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS              
PANHANDLE. WEAK DRYLINE IN PLACE TONIGHT. EXPECT 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET            
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO                
MONDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROGED TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT             
AS POWERFUL SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. DECENT CAP IN             
PLACE OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS...SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION TONIGHT                
DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY AND MINOR CU FIELD. WILL GO WITH A DRY               
FIRST PERIOD.                                                                   
DRYLINE RETREATS WESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE               
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN 20 PERCENT POPS MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE WITH WEAK             
MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON...WELL             
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM.                                                           
TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS 70KT 5H JET APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEW               
MEXICO. STRONG DRY/DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT WINDS LOOK LIKELY. MAY NEED A             
HIGH WIND WATCH MONDAY FOR WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FUTURE SHIFTS              
WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATEST THINKING IS THAT DRYLINE/INSTABILITY               
WILL BE PRETTY WELL EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO HAVE            
ADJUSTED DEW POINT GRIDS AND DROPPED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR WEST.               
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED CONCERN.                                 
NEXT DILEMMA IS FOR POST FRONTAL COOL ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. APPEARS              
COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS IN              
THE LOW 60S LOOK POSSIBLE. TEMPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON THURSDAY.            
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT GRIDS. STILL LOTS OF                 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SYSTEM TRACK AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY                
PRESENT. HAVE ALSO KEPT 20 POPS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED             
SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.                                                             
FCSTID = SLATTERY                                                               
AMARILLO    51 84 53 80 / 00 00 20 20                                           
BEAVER      50 87 55 80 / 00 10 20 20                                           
BOISE CITY  46 81 48 73 / 00 00 20 10                                           
BORGER      49 87 53 80 / 00 00 20 20                                           
BOYS RANCH  48 85 49 79 / 00 00 20 10                                           
CANYON      50 85 50 80 / 00 00 20 10                                           
CLARENDON   52 87 54 82 / 00 10 20 20                                           
DALHART     47 82 48 76 / 00 00 20 10                                           
GUYMON      48 86 52 78 / 00 00 20 20                                           
HEREFORD    49 84 49 78 / 00 00 20 00                                           
LIPSCOMB    50 87 55 81 / 00 10 20 20                                           
PAMPA       50 86 54 82 / 00 00 20 20                                           
SHAMROCK    52 89 55 83 / 00 10 20 20                                           
WELLINGTON  54 89 56 83 / 00 10 20 20                                           
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1040 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2003                                                     
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE RUC FORECAST...CURRENT ZONES                
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT EAST OF SOUTH THAN CURRENT            
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SHOULD                
TURN DUE SOUTH BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO UPDATES ON THE ZONES ARE             
PLANNED THIS MORNING.                                                           
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ECKBERG                                                                         
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
410 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003                                                      
THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE HAS RETREATED WEST TO                
ROUGHLY A KCNM TO KFST LINE. INTERESTING TO NOTE THE LAST HOUR OR SO            
OF OBS AT KATS SHOWING A SOUTH WIND IS ADVECTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE             
NORTH UP THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.                                                
THE RUC MODEL HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE LOW-             
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE BIG QUESTION            
IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE DRYLINE MOVE THIS AFTERNOON. WE BELIEVE THE            
GRIDDED MODEL DATA IS MIXING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TODAY WHILE               
THE MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN                 
RATHER IMPRESSIVE (NEAR 8-8.5C/KM) ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE FOR AT LEAST 10% POPS IN THE VICINITY             
OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT ONCE AGAIN              
TONIGHT AS A STRONG 250MB JET BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NM. GFS               
MODEL IS INDICATING A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO             
THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...CONTINUED                 
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE RETREATING DRYLINE. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS            
OVER THE EAST AND SPREAD SOME 10% POPS OUT WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE              
ABOVE SCENARIO. THE LEADING EDGE OF A 130KT 250MB JET APPROACHES                
THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW AND WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...                
COOLING 500MB TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE...WE                
WILL ADD SOME POPS TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA.                  
SPC HAS OUR FAR NORTHEAST CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK...AND WITH               
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15KT AND 60KT 500MB WESTERLY WINDS...              
AGREE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL              
ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND                 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A HIGH WIND EVENT IN               
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH ADVISORY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST             
NEW MEXICO. THE GFS INDICATES THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID AND HIGH                  
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND TO DELAY THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL UNTIL AFTER              
18Z TUE. WE WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH JUST YET. DRY WEATHER IS                     
ANTICIPATED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER WEST                 
COAST STORM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS             
IS INDICATING THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN NM               
INTO WEST TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS             
RUN OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE NOW            
SHOWING THIS SYSTEM LIFTING FURTHER NORTH. NO CHANGES TO THE                    
EXTENDED.                                                                       
THANKS TO LBB FOR COORDINATION.                                                 
MAF BB 088/062 085/055 079 06122                                                
CNM BB 090/055 083/046 080 06011                                                
MRF BB 081/047 077/041 076 06021                                                
FST BB 089/060 087/057 081 06122                                                
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
PLATT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
912 AM MST MON APR 14 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS                
ARIZONA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE              
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...              
AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. MUCH COOLER                  
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL             
THEN BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A               
RETURN TO WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...                   
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.                            
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS                 
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SRN                
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE INVADING THE WESTERN STATES.             
THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING FROM KTUS WAS INDICATING A PW OF 0.55 INCHES             
WHICH IS AN INCREASE OF ABOUT 0.20 INCHES SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.            
WINDS IN THE COLUMN ARE FAIRLY STRONG WITH ONLY 15 KNOTS AT                     
850MB...BUT AT 700MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS. MODELS ARE                     
INDICATING THAT WINDS AT 850MB WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH                
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST TO THE WEST             
AND NORTH OVERNIGHT. 700MB WINDS SHOW WIDESPREAD 30-40 KNOT WINDS               
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD               
COVER SHOULD INHIBIT THESE WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. A WIND             
ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MY                    
FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND            
THE ADVISORY FARTHER BACK TO THE WEST IF WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO                  
INCREASE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED OVER THOSE AREAS.                                 
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON...             
BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED.             
MOLLERE                                                                         
.TWC...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR ZONES 19/30/35.           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1000 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003                                                     
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE                                              
...RECORD BREAKING WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON...                                     
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 925 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS                
WITH +20C AT DVN. GRADIENT DOESNT RELAX AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES             
ALREADY +14C AT DVN/ILX/LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC THETA-E CROSS                
SECTIONS SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB NEAR ROCKFORD...AND 800 MB OVER                  
NORTHWEST INDIANA. WAS INITIALLY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TREND IN THE             
RUC FORECAST...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON DVN...AND                  
HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB...THIS WOULD TEND TO MAKE SOME SENSE.                    
RUC FORECASTS +16 AT 850 AND +10 AT 800 MB AT 21Z. THIS WOULD MIX TO            
A UNIFORM +30/31C HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS CWA. WILL BUMP HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES UP TO MID 80S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. RECORDS ARE (SOON TO              
BE WERE) 79/83 SET IN 1941 AT ROCKFORD/OHARE RESPECTIVELY.                      
OTHER ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE WINDS. WITH TIGHT HEIGHT/MSLP                 
GRADIENT ALREADY SEE 30 KNTS AT 950 MB ON LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS.                
ACARS SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST REVEAL 40 KNTS AT 875 MB...SO WILL HAVE            
HIGHEST WINDS MENTIONED IN NORTHWEST ZONES. GENERALLY EXPECT 15 TO              
25 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 ESPECIALLY NEAR                
ROCKFORD.                                                                       
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME MID/HI                 
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA. THOUGH BETTER SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR                  
AREA...SUSPECT SOME DEBRIS TO BE ADVECTED OVER AREA LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.CHI...GALE WARNING FOR NORTH THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.            
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARSHORE WATERS.                     
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12 TAFS                                                 
ONLY REAL CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE WIND ALOFT. RADAR SHOWS 40KT              
AT 020. ONLY 1 ACARS RECENTLY AROUND ORD SHOWS ONLY 25KT. ETA                   
SOUNDING MORE LIKE RADAR SO SHOW A WIND SHEAR GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS             
THIS MORNING. BY MIDDAY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD BE MIXING TO                
GROUND WITH DRY AIR A LOT OF SUN TO ENSURE WELL MIXED LAYER WITH                
GUSTS 30+KT. WIND SHOULD DROP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT GUSTS             
THRU NIGHT AS MIXING CONTINUES.                                                 
AF                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
1045 AM CDT MON APR 14 2003                                                     
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL NEED TO LOOK AT                        
TEMPERATURES...AS PER RUC DATA WOULD SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED TO                   
BUMP THEM UP EVEN MORE!                                                         
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE OUT AROUND 11:30 AM.                                      
ALSO...PER COORDINATION CALL WITH WISCONSIN DNR...WILL CONTINUE                 
THE RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS                   
EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE BROWN...OUTAGAMIE...CALUMET AND                    
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES.                                                             
.GRB...RED FLAG WARNING FOR NC/C/NE WI FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT...              
$$                                                                              
ECKBERG                                                                         
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1245 PM CDT MON APR 14 2003                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE                                        
GUSTY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW OVER FORECAST AREA THIS                           
AFTERNOON...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW                  
PRESSURE OVER UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. AS LOW LEVELS MIX OUT              
WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S...THOUGH LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST             
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS IOWA THIS                    
AFTERNOON. WITH GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP SOME GUSTS INTO THE                  
TEENS...THEN BRING WINDS BACK UP DURING THE MORNING TUES. 12 UTC                
SOUNDINGS FROM MANY PLAINS LOCATIONS SHOWS VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE...AND            
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING ALMOST NO CLOUD COVER ACROSS                     
REGION...EXCEPT SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS ACROSS IA. EXPECT THESE VFR               
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TUES.                                        
RATZER                                                                          
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE                                              
...RECORD BREAKING WARMUP THIS AFTERNOON...                                     
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS 925 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS                
WITH +20C AT DVN. GRADIENT DOESNT RELAX AT 850 MB WITH TEMPERATURES             
ALREADY +14C AT DVN/ILX/LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS. RUC THETA-E CROSS                
SECTIONS SHOW MIXING TO 850 MB NEAR ROCKFORD...AND 800 MB OVER                  
NORTHWEST INDIANA. WAS INITIALLY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TREND IN THE             
RUC FORECAST...BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON DVN...AND                  
HEIGHT RISES AT 500 MB...THIS WOULD TEND TO MAKE SOME SENSE.                    
RUC FORECASTS +16 AT 850 AND +10 AT 800 MB AT 21Z. THIS WOULD MIX TO            
A UNIFORM +30/31C HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS CWA. WILL BUMP HIGH                   
TEMPERATURES UP TO MID 80S ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. RECORDS ARE (SOON TO              
BE WERE) 79/83 SET IN 1941 AT ROCKFORD/OHARE RESPECTIVELY.                      
OTHER ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON IS THE WINDS. WITH TIGHT HEIGHT/MSLP                 
GRADIENT ALREADY SEE 30 KNTS AT 950 MB ON LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS.                
ACARS SOUNDINGS FURTHER WEST REVEAL 40 KNTS AT 875 MB...SO WILL HAVE            
HIGHEST WINDS MENTIONED IN NORTHWEST ZONES. GENERALLY EXPECT 15 TO              
25 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 ESPECIALLY NEAR                
ROCKFORD.                                                                       
WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR SOME MID/HI                 
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER IOWA. THOUGH BETTER SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR                  
AREA...SUSPECT SOME DEBRIS TO BE ADVECTED OVER AREA LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.CHI...GALE WARNING FOR NORTH THIRD OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.            
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEARSHORE WATERS.                     
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   il