000
FXUS62 KTAE 161330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2009

.UPDATE...MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL 
TROUGH FROM LAKE MI SOUTHWEST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES RIDING NORTHEAST OVER 
RIDGE PARKED OVER FL STRAITS/CUBA AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FROM COASTAL SC TO CENTRAL 
GA...SOUTHERN AL AND SOUTHEAST LA. 12Z TAE SOUNDING REVEALED 
MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB WITH PRONOUNCED DRYING TO 700 MB. INSTABILITY 
INCREASED WITH LI -3.9 WITH UNMODIFIED CAPE OF 1053 J/KG...AND THIS 
SHOULD MAINTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL TODAY. THUS FAR...STRONGEST STORMS 
HAVE BEEN ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR DOTHAN AL TO JUST EAST OF DESTIN 
FL. THE ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE 
EAST...AND WILL AFFECT ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS 
THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL AMEND THE MORNING ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE 
MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS 5-10 KT AND 2 FT SEAS PREVAIL THIS MORNING. 
BOTH THE WSWRF AND RUC DEPICT WINDS VEERING AND INCREASING AS THE 
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE WEST TODAY. WILL MAKE MINOR 
TWEAKS TO WINDS...SEAS AND PRECIP COVERAGE TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KDHN THIS 
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE 
TO SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE REMAINING TERMINALS 
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH LOCAL 
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN 
A LINE FROM CHATTAHOOCHEE/MUSCOGEE COUNTIES IN WESTERN GA SOUTHWEST 
THROUGH PIKE COUNTY IN AL AND OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA AND ESCAMBIA 
COUNTIES IN WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL IN THE 
MIDDLE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER BASIN WHICH DRAINS INTO LAKE SEMINOLE AND 
ALONG THE CONECUH RIVER BASIN WHICH DRAINS SOUTHWEST INTO PENSACOLA 
BAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES FELL OVER THE UPPER PEA AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE 
RIVER BASINS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER TO 
ONE HALF INCH FELL OVER THE FLINT RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA 
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WALTON COUNTY TO THE APALACHICOLA 
RIVER.

SHARP RISES...BUT WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE...OCCURRED ON THE PEA AND 
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST AL.  THIS RAIN HAS NOT GENERATED 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO RELEASES AT THE GEORGE AND COLUMBIA LOCK AND 
DAMS ON THE CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER. THE LOWER FLINT RIVER INCLUDING 
MUCKALEE AND KINCHAFOONEE CREEKS SHOWED MINOR RISES. THE LOWER 
APALACHICOLA RIVER IN THE FL PANHANDLE...OCHLOCKONEE RIVER IN 
SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GA CONTINUE AT 
ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS DUE TO ROUTED WATER FROM A RAIN EVENT TWO WEEKS 
AGO. ALL OTHER FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FL TO THE 
ATLANTIC ARE NEAR OR AT BASE FLOW RECESSION.
  
THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH 
ANOTHER SHOT OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER BASIN 
REMAINS SENSITIVE TO RISES AND COULD POTENTIALLY GO BACK ABOVE 
ACTION STAGE...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE:  
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE  77 55 80 52 75/ 70 60  0  0  0
PANAMA CITY  74 58 77 55 77/ 80 50  0  0  0
DOTHAN       69 53 75 51 76/ 80 40  0  0  0
ALBANY       71 53 77 49 77/ 80 50  0  0  0
VALDOSTA     77 55 76 52 75/ 70 60  0  0  0
CROSS CITY   82 59 75 55 76/ 30 60  0  0  0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE UPDATE...JAMSKI
AVIATION...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...LANIER