NASA Administrator
Daniel S. Goldin

The Commodity Club
Washington, DC
October 21, 1997

     Today, I'd like to talk a little bit about NASA . . . 
who we are and what we're about.

     And, I'd like to talk about how we, NASA and all of you 
in the commodity business, can work together to produce 
better crops and a better quality of life.

     But first, I'd like to talk about David Letterman.

     You'll understand why in a minute.

     A couple of weeks ago, David Letterman began his 
monologue by mentioning the unseasonably warm weather for 
October in New York City.

     He said earlier that afternoon it was hot . . . really 
hot . . . maybe 150-200 degrees.

     Letterman paused . . .and deadpanned:

     "It must be that damn El Nino."

     If you're like me and you can't deliver a line like 
David Letterman, the joke is not that funny.  Nor, by the 
way, is it very accurate.

     But I'll share another example of what I'm trying to get 
at.

     Recently on National Public Radio -- there was a parody 
of the movie "Independence Day."

     Our fearless President -- a former fighter pilot -- is 
going to save our country and the world . . . not from aliens 
from another planet . . . but from the seemingly unbeatable . 
. .
     
     El Nino.

     From Morning Edition to "The Late Show". . . you can't  
pick up a newspaper or turn on the TV without seeing or 
hearing about El Nino.

     CNN, the "All News Network" has become the "All Nino 
Network."

     It's everywhere.  Forgive the pun . . . but it's the 
hottest thing out there.

     Why are there floods in one area and droughts in 
another?

     El Nino.

     Why did the chicken cross the road?

     El Nino.

     How did the Cleveland Indians make it to the World 
Series?

     You guessed it . . . El Nino.

     Of course, El Nino's not responsible for everything.

     Not everyone sitting in their homes watching the evening 
news could even possibly know what El Nino is -- this 
phenomenon that was first observed off the coast of Peru over 
300 years ago when fisherman noticed that the water got a 
little warmer and the anchovy population declined.

     And even today, our best scientists don't yet know why 
every few years, trade winds in the Pacific weaken -- or 
relax -- and cause a shift in the ocean currents.  If you 
work in the "Pit" of the Chicago Board of Trade . . . or if 
you're a farmer . . . you might not even need to know exactly 
why this happens.

     But everyone knows it happens.  Everyone knows that this 
connection between atmosphere and ocean sets off a series of 
phenomena with global, regional and local implications.     

     And that's the point.  We all don't know what El Nino 
is, but we all know that El Nino is.

     And that's an incredible -- profit-earning, crop-
improving, perhaps even lifesaving -- discovery.

     Because without a doubt . . . whatever comes from this 
El Nino  . . . it won't be as bad as it would be if we didn't 
know it was coming.

     But we do know it's coming.  Because of NASA.

     We put up a series of three spacecraft.

     The first measured ocean temperatures.  NOAA -- the 
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association -- has been 
monitoring those for some time.

     A few years ago, we launched the second satellite.

     Working in partnership with the French, NASA has 
developed a satellite called Topex Poseidon.

     It is providing the most precise measurements ever of 
ocean surface height.  This new technology actually measures 
the ocean surface to within about one inch . . . an amazing 
breakthrough.

     The third spacecraft is what we call the Scatterometer.  
We launched this just last year on a Japanese satellite.  The 
Scatterometer is a microwave device that measures the wind 
velocity and the wind direction on the surface of the ocean 
for the first time.

     Correlating the measurements from these three spacecraft 
. . . a bunch of nerdy scientists somewhere off in a corner . 
. . were able to predict -- for the very first time -- an El 
Nino condition.  In fact, they witnessed the formation of 
what could be the strongest El Nino yet.

     When we talk about weather, in 1997, we're limited to 5-
day forecasts.  Initially, forecasting was limited to about a 
day.  With the invention of the telegraph, it went up to two 
days.  Finally, with spacecraft and better data we were able 
to get that up to five days.  And still, sometimes they're 
not that accurate.

     But now, we're on the verge of a major breakthrough of 
monumental proportions -- predicting the weather on a 
seasonal to inter-annual basis.

     We're going to put up the most aggressive constellation 
of spacecraft in the history of this planet.  They are going 
to give a literal physical to the Earth over a multi-decadal 
period.

     
     Because it is our objective -- hopefully within 25 years 
-- to make multi-decade predictions of climate, environment, 
atmosphere and oceans and land so we can better manage our 
resources for sustainable development . . . globally, 
regionally, and locally.

     We are adding new measurements every year.  And this 
data is going to be available, in real-time, over the 
Internet to anyone who wants it . . . as raw results and as 
peer-reviewed results.  I'll talk more about that later.

     But just imagine what this could mean . . . especially 
for all of you who are in the business of growing, 
processing, and marketing crops.

     It is estimated that the 1993 El Nino event was 
responsible for anywhere between 8 and 12 billion dollars in 
damages.  It affected 39 crops in 33 countries.

     The weather disasters of that year reduced farm income 
an estimated $5.2 billion in counties declared disaster 
areas.  The counties included 61 percent of all U.S. farms 
specializing in cash grains. 

     The flooding from the 1982-83 El Nino caused $1.27 
billion dollars in damages to the U.S. Gulf States.

     That El Nino caused wheat prices to go up 18 percent.  
Corn rose 78 percent.  Soybeans 91 percent.

     And the current El Nino?  Well, we don't know for sure 
what the effects will be, but heating oil and natural gas 
prices could be hurt if El Nino brings the expected dose of 
warmer weather to the upper Midwest this winter.

     The expected drier weather in areas like Southeast Asia  
and the West African Coast could impact cocoa and coffee 
growers.

     And remember those anchovies off the coast of Peru?  A 
lot of farmers use those anchovies as fish meal for cattle.  
They might buy soybeans instead.  Soybean prices go up.  So 
does wheat.  So does cattle and meat prices in the 
supermarket.
     
     In other words, the two main risks that need to be 
mitigated for you to do your jobs are the weather and 
markets.  And NASA technology can help with both on a global 
level, a regional level and a local level.

     El Nino is but one example.  We are beginning to detect 
a similar El Nino-like pattern that originates in the 
Atlantic Ocean.
     And still, there are others weather and climate 
occurrences and natural disasters. . . and we are not really 
sure whether they are due to natural variability or human 
induced activity.

     But we do know, that if we can predict, we can prepare.  
Maybe even prevent.

     That means better yields . . . and a better quality of 
life.

     That's the goal.  That's the mission.  And we're not 
just talking about what we would call dramatic or extreme 
climate and weather events, like the floods or droughts of an 
El Nino.  This isn't just about touchy-feely, tree-hugging 
stuff.  This affects everyone.  More efficient processes and 
better yields will be absolutely critical as the population 
continues to increase.

     We want to be ready.

     Like I said earlier, we are developing new technologies 
all the time -- planting the seeds, if you will . . . for the 
remote sensing and "precision" agriculture revolution.

     These technologies -- Global Positioning System (GPS) 
satellites, state-of-the-art aircraft and cutting-edge 
spacecraft -- will allow us to monitor stresses on crops and 
soil and forests that the naked eye could never see.

     We have both active and passive sensors.  A passive 
sensor is sort of like an eyeball -- reflected light come off 
the surface.  And an active sensor is more like a radar.  It 
sends out a pulse . . .you wait until it hits and you get to 
reflect the signal from that pulse.

     Allow me to share a little bit more about the passive 
measurements.  A color TV, for the most part, has three 
colors.  The naked eye is somewhat limited to color spectrum.

     But if you go to much longer wave lengths -- or InfraRed 
wave lengths . . . beyond what the eye can see -- we can get 
images and measurements in multiple colors.

     And from those images . . . from the stresses the 
multiple color images can now detect . . . we can begin to 
measure the moisture of the soil to know exactly how much 
irrigation water to add, or if we are adding too much.

     We can begin to measure the condition of the crop to 
know exactly how much fertilizer to apply, or if we're adding 
too much.

     We can begin to measure more precisely when to plant and 
harvest.  Are we doing it too late, or too early.

     And we can see if there's a pest lurking underground 
that could potentially destroy a crop . . . and in some cases 
we can even identify exactly what that pest is.

     For instance, in California we're working with the 
multiple-billion dollar wine industry and using these kinds 
of images and technology to detect phylloxera . . . a pest 
that eats away at the roots of the vines.

     We call it Grapevine Remote Sensing Analysis of 
Phylloxera . . . or GRAPES.

     We're having great success . . . because you can only 
detect this pest from the air and from space.

     This kind of real, concrete knowledge and data is 
crucial to agri-business.

     And we can take all of this data one step further.  
Fields are variable.  They change.

     In the same field, for example, one are can be more 
porous than another.  One part might be more conducive to 
another crop than another.  One area might need less 
fertilizer than another.

     Global Positioning Satellites help us determine this.

       The series of satellites can also send a signal down 
to the farmer -- or even a robotic tractor itself -- for 
real-time tilling . . . leading not only to more efficient 
use of water, fertilizer and pesticides . . . but more 
productive agriculture.

     It's a very exciting time.  And this is really an 
unbelievable process.

     And this process is really what NASA is about.  
Providing the tools to explore new worlds and enhance life 
here on Earth.  We're about a quest for knowledge.  We're 
about better yields and a better quality of life.

     In other words -- and as we call NASA's study of how the 
Earth's land, air, oceans and life interact to shape our 
ever-changing world -- NASA's not just about exploring other 
planets . . . it's about a Mission to Planet Earth.

     One final thought before I open the floor for questions.

     When all is said and done, it is the farmer or the 
rancher or the commodity analyst who makes the day-to-day 
management decisions.  But clearly, and especially in a 
global economy, you need the information to make these 
decisions wisely.

     Knowledge is power.  Information is power.  But only if 
you can get your hands on it.  Only if you have access.

     At NASA, we don't want to put 1.5 billion dollars per-
year into the cutting-edge technologies that lead to better 
yields and a better quality of life . . . and then keep that 
knowledge from the people who need it most.

     Our country can't afford to keep this data from our 
farmers and traders only to have it show up in Tokyo and 
Toulouse.  That's not what we're about.

     So today, I have a proposal.  And hopefully we can talk 
more about this in the Q&A session.

     I mentioned earlier that all of our data is available on 
the Internet.  And it is.  We also help produce what we call 
the Green Report.  It puts the images and information we get 
from NASA satellites into the hands of traders in Chicago.

     But still, I think we could do more.

     So, I propose that at NASA, we have a senior official 
delegated to the commodity community.

     They will work with you.  To answer your questions.  To 
help disseminate the information we put on the Internet.  To 
be your single point of contact.

     As the remote sensing industry matures -- it is 
predicted that this may become a 10-15 billion dollar-per-
year industry -- you can go directly to this person to make 
sure you get the data and the information you need.

     But be prepared . . . this NASA official will also come 
to you and seek your advice and your expertise.

     We want to make sure that the 1.5 billion dollars-per-
year that NASA puts into Mission to Planet Earth is going to 
the right place.

     We want to make sure that we're doing the right thing.

     We want to make sure that this incredible wealth of 
knowledge translates not just to pop culture like NPR and  
David Letterman's show . . . but that it translates to what 
truly matters to every American . . . better yields and a 
better quality of life.

     We have the know-how.  We have the will.  And we should 
settle for nothing less.

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