AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
940 PM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN FOR EVEN UPDATE WL BE FOG/CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPR LVL RDG...SPCLLY NRN PTN...MAKING GOOD            
EWD PROGRESS.  CLOSEST SGFNT SHRT WV DIVING INTO BASE OF LG WV TROF             
THRU GULF CST STATES SO LTL DYNAMIC FORCING NRBY.  HWVR DECENT ISENT            
LIFT IN PLACE PER 00Z H85 ANLYS AND 295/300K SFCS OF 00Z RUC BUT LACK           
OF MSTR WL PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN.  ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE             
FRZG DRZL WHICH MAY AFFECT EXTRM NRN FA AS MSTR MUCH DEEPER N PER               
KMPX SOUNDING.  MOIST LYR QUITE A BIT THINNER OVR CNTRL SXNS HWVR SO            
WITH VSBYS STILL AOA 4SM WL NOT ADD MENTION ATTM.                               
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRN IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS VERY WELL EXTENDING FM             
JUST N OF KCSQ FARTHER NWD TWRD KEST AND KMCW.  EXTRAPOLATION OF                
BACK EDGE WOULD PLACE CLRG LN TO FAR ERN PTNS OF FA BY 07-08Z.                  
RECENT TEMP TRENDS BHND CLRG LN POINT TWRD A GRDL TEMP DROP EVEN                
THOUGH DECENT WRM ADVCTN IS IN PLACE JUST ABV SFC.  WITH SNW COVER              
THIS IS LIKELY JUST INCRG THE INVERSION TIL SFC WRMFNTL PASSAGE                 
WHICH MAY WAIT TIL TMRW.  03Z SFC ANLYS SHOWS FNT STILL THRU NE WITH LTL        
MOVMT IN PAST SVRL HRS.  THUS WENT WITH SKIES CLRG OVNGT AND PATCHY             
FOG DVLPG.  INVERSION MAY BE JUST THIN ENOUGH WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR            
ALF TO PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN PATCHY FOG.  FOG DVLPMT NOT                      
IMPRESSIVE ATTM EVEN OVR DENSER SNW PACK OF W CNTRL IA.  ALSO                   
LOWERED OVNGT TEMPS AS READINGS STILL SLOWLY FALLING AHD OF WRMFNT.             
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE DIMINISHING LES AND MAX TEMPS.                      
LATEST SAT AND 88D TRENDS SHOW LES EVENT CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN                
ACROSS THE UP. VIS AT IWD HAS BEEN AT 10SM FOR A FEW HOURS NOW...AND            
CMX HAS GONE SCT020. A FEW LES BANDS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN                
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ALGER/LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...                  
RETURNS HAVE BEEN UNDER 28DBZ WITH A CONTINUED DISORGANIZATION OF               
BANDS. ISQ AND ERY OBS STILL SHOWING -SN IN VIS FROM 1/2 TO 2SM. VWP            
CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUD TOPS AROUND 7K FEET...WHILE RUC FORECAST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS AND LOWERING RH DURING THE             
DAY. 12Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED INVERSION AROUND 850MB (4500FT) WITH               
DRIER AIR BELOW INVERSION COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING. RUC ALSO            
SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACKING FROM N TO W AS SFC HIGH PASSES TO OUR             
SOUTH AND LAKE INDUCED TROF WEAKENS THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS WARM            
A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THE DAY AS WELL...THOUGH MAINTAINS ADEQUATE             
DELTA/T FOR CLOUDS BEFORE ONSHORE COMPONENT DIES. THESE FACTORS                 
POINT TOWARD CONTINUED WEAKENING OF LES OVER EASTERN UPR THIS                   
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAKE INFLUENCE FOR VARIABLE            
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN OVER WEST/CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES. WILL            
MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON SAT                
TRENDS.                                                                         
WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR A FEW LOCATIONS BASED ON                
CURRENT READINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE. IMT ONLY -6F AT 15Z.                        
OTHERWISE...MAINLY FRESHENED WORDING FOR ZONES INCLUDING DIMINISHING            
SNOW IN EASTERN COUNTIES.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
844 PM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDINESS COVERING             
ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN EXTREMES OF THE CWA WITH                    
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CONTINUING TO FALL. LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA            
BOTH AGREE THAT THE LOW CLOUDINESS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF MN BY                  
DAYBREAK. THIS IS BASED ON THE WARM FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS              
MOVING INTO EASTERN MN BY DAYBREAK. LAMP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE                
FRONT IS HARDLY MOVING PROBABLY DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES...SNOW             
COVER AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.                 
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE WITH THE FOG PRODUCT INDICATES THAT A SLOW           
CONTRACTION TO THE LOW CLOUDS IS OCCURRING WITH EAST CENTRAL MN BEING           
IN THE MIDDLE.                                                                  
WILL CHANGE THE WORDING A LITTLE FOR WESTERN MN AND INDICATE                    
CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP PARTIAL CLEARING             
FOR LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN MN. NO CHANGES TO WEST CENTRAL WI. WILL             
KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH VISIBILITIES                   
DROPPING TO A COUPLE OF MILES IN THE FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL BE                  
SLOWLY RISING IN THE WEST AND NEARLY STEADY IN THE EASTERN CWA. JUST            
A LITTLE REWORDING HERE.                                                        
CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT WITH SUNSHINE AND WARMER                     
TEMPERATURES. 00Z UPPER AIR CONFIRMS H8 +12C WARM POCKET IN THE                 
WESTERN DAKOTAS. THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MN AND WI                  
MIDDAY SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE FOR EASTERN               
MN. WITH MODERATE W TO NW SURFACE WINDS...HIGHS SHOULD GET WELL INTO            
THE 40S IN WESTERN MN AND INTO THE LOWER 40S EASTERN MN/WI.                     
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
850 PM EST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
LTST SFC ANALYSIS SHOW FIRST TROF XTNDG FM CHS W THROUGH AMG AND                
MOVG SE. CD AIR TRAILING THE TROF JST A BIT...XTNDG FM FLO SW TO ABY            
AND ALSO MOVG TO THE SE. AS WIND DIR BECOMES MORE NRLY...TEMPS WL               
FALL AND WNDS TO PICK UP. PRIMARY VORT HDNG TWD NC CST ATTM...AND               
TAKING CLDS WI IT...WI ONLY CLDS ACRS CWA NOW ALNG SC CST. WK SCNDRY            
S/WV OVR WRN TN WL SWING THRU SE GA OVRNGT...BUT ATMOS SO DRY THAT              
HARD EVEN TO PRODUCE SCT CLDS. TOO BAD...WUD LIKE TO HAV SEEN JST               
ENUF MSTR TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLURRIES FOR XMAS...BUT JST NOT THERE.           
WL GO WI EITHER MSTLY CLR OR CLEARNG ACRS ENTIRE CWA. WL UP WINDS               
INLAND TO 15 TO 20 MPH AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H925 WNDS 20 TO 25 KTS             
AND PROGGED TO STAY NR THERE ALL NGT WI VRY STG CAA.                            
TEMPS...WHILE STG CAA COMES IN OVRNGT...MAY BE TUFF TO GET MUCH                 
COLDER THAN 30 ALNG CSTL COUNTIES WI WNDS STAYING UP ALL NGT. WL                
ADJST TEMPS UP JST A LTL ON CST AND ALSO UP THEM A NOTCH INLAND                 
AREAS PER SAME REASNG.                                                          
CWF...THINGS GOING PRETTY MUCH ACCORDING TO SCHEDULE THIS XMAS EVE.             
CD FNT IS CURRENTLY MOVG INTO THE SC WATERS AND WL MOVE INTO THE GA             
WATERS IN A FEW HRS. CURRENT FCST LOOKING FINE. ONLY CHG THIS PKG WL            
BE TO INCLUDE THE CHS HARBOR IN THE SCA AS WINDS SHUD INCREASE TO 20            
KT W/I 12 HRS. ALL ELSE LOOKS FINE.                                             
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.             
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM.                 
WOODWORTH/TJR                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                     
STRANGELY ENOUGH...THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT ALMOST THE              
WAY I THOUGHT IT WOULD YESTERDAY. LIGHT SNOW THAT DEVELOPED IN THE              
WEAK Q CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION OVER EASTERN TN AHEAD OF THE SHORT            
WAVE DIVING SE OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY IS NOW RUNNING UP THE                   
WESTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE                     
MOUNTAINS HAVE REPORTED LITE SNOW THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT SET OF              
ZONES REALLY SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. EXPECT               
THIS INITIAL BIT OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TO                    
DIMINISH AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE                 
LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING. DO              
NOT SEE ANY INDICATIONS IN THE 06Z ETA/12Z RUC/OBSERVATIONS THAT WE             
NEED TO STEP UP TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL KEEP THE                 
ADVISORY UNCHANGED.                                                             
THE ONLY MINOR PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST IS WHAT TO DO EAST OF THE              
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER UPSTATE SC. THE CLOUDS HAVE NOT ARRIVED             
EARLY ENUF TO HELP KEEP THE TEMPS DOWN. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP              
HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WILL MESH BETTER WITH CAE ZONES                  
ANYWAY. ONE INTERESTING ITEM IN THE 06Z ETA IS A BLOB OF LOW LEVEL              
RH THAT THE MODEL BRINGS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AND OUT TO              
THE ESE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF UPSTATE SC BETWEEN 21Z AND                  
00Z...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN              
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO AVOID THE CHRISTMAS EVE               
WISH-CAST AND KEEP THE FEW FLURRIES WORDING FOR NOW.                            
.GSP...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...           
       NCZ033-048>050.                                                          
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
935 AM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE CLOUDS FROM ABR AREA ZONE...AS LOW CLOUD                
BAND HAS SHIFTED EAST SOMEWHAT. EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE STUBBORN TO            
CLEAR...LATEST RUC T-SECT FOR ATY AREA SHOWS 80-90 PERCENT RH FROM              
SFC TO NEARLY 850 MB AND A LAYER OF WARMER AIR PERSISTING SLIGHTLY              
HIGHER. RUC ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTURE LAYER BECOMING MORE SHALLOW                
WITH TIME...SO KEPT IN MENTION OF DECREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.             
A FEW CALLS THIS MORNING INDICATED SOME PTCHY -ZL AREAS TO EAST OF              
ABR...AND HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO COVER...DOESN'T SEEM WIDESPREAD ENOUGH           
TO MERIT ADVISORY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...FEEL NW COUNTIES...MBG                  
AREA...HAS GOOD CHANCE TO BREAK RCD HIGH OF 46 TODAY. RUC 850 MB                
TEMP REACHES 8C BY 20Z TODAY...WITH MIXING AND PLENTY OF                        
SUN...SHOULD TO MIX LOWER LEVELS NICELY. SW COUNTIES...PIR                      
AREA...ALSO HAS A SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCE OF BREAKING RCD HIGH...SO              
WILL WATCH CLOSELY. RCDS OVER E HALF OF AREA LOOK SAFE...ESPECIALLY             
FAR EAST W/CLDS HANGING IN.                                                     
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
LORENS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
720 AM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.                   
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS 30-50KFT CLOUD DECK DROPPING                 
SOUTHWARD AND WILL LIKELY THROW A FLY IN THE "MSUNNY" FCST FOR A                
WHILE TODAY. LATEST RUC REMAINS VIGILENT IN PUSHING MSTR QUICKLY                
EAST BY MIDDAY AND ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. WILL              
ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WIND SHIFT.             
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
CBD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1000 AM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                     
SHORT TERM...ETA AND RUC GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE HIGH MOISTURE VALUES            
PERSISTING OVER THE CWA DESPITE SOME INDICATIONS OF CLD EROSION ON              
VSBL IMAGERY.  THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEAKER BUT STILL                    
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL INVERSION PRESENT BELOW 800 MB.  LOW LEVEL                 
WINDS REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE CWA AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN               
BKN TO OVC CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.  AFTER YESTERDAYS HIGH OF 65             
DEG HERE AT BRO...FORECAST HIGHS OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S LOOK                
GOOD AND IS CLOSE TO FWC NUMBERS.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWER                   
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE NE OUT OF MEXICO TOWARDS THE CWA.  THIS              
MATCHES WELL WITH WHERE THE ETA GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAX 700MB LIFT               
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS BORDERE REGION.  20 % POPS SHOULD COVER             
THIS.  SO ALL IN ALL...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO CURRENT ZFP.                        
MARINE...BUOY020 REMAINS AROUND 5 FT AT 5 SEC WITH A N WIND AROUND              
10 KT.  THIS HAS BEEN ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL            
HOURS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRIT.  KBRO RADAR SHOWS              
ISOLD TO WIDELY SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE FORM THE INLAND AREAS.  ALL             
OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT CWF...NO CHANGES            
NEEDED ATTM.  WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION SCEC IN THE 1ST PD.                 
SYN/MESO...60/HMT...CAMPBELL                                                    
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
920 PM EST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
TYPICAL WINTER PROBLEM...CLEARING STOPS AT OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING.             
MESOETA AND THE RUC PICK UP ON THIS NICELY AND HOLD CLDS IN OVR THE             
REGION FOR MOST OF THE NITE.  HWEVR...WILL STILL GO WITH CLEARING               
AFT MIDNITE IN THE WEST AS LOW LEVEL CD ADVTN CEASES AND CLEARING IS            
CLOSE BY...BUT WILL KEEP CLDS IN OVR THE MTNS TNITE AND SNW SHWRS               
ENDING AFT MIDNITE.   ALTHO VSBY BRIEFLY LWR IN HVR SNW                         
SHWRS...EXPECT LITTLE SNW ACCUM.  AS A RESULT TMPS WILL BE ADJUSTED             
UP TO ACCOUNT FOR CLDS.  NO CHGS BEYOND TNITE.                                  
.RLX...                                                                         
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
.END/JMV                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
900 PM CST FRI DEC 24 1999                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS...FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.          
02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN                
DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS PRECEDE THE             
FRONT AND WERE DEPICTED BY 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN LATEST RUC AND           
ETA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD OVER PRETTY MUCH ALL OF THE         
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED CEILINGS/             
VISIBILITY LOWERING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IOWA AS ATMOSPHERE          
SATURATES...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWN WELL BY TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS.            
POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MORNING HOURS OF             
CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS GOOD. THIS BASED ON CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE                
SOUNDING WITH SATURATED LOWER LAYER AND POTENTIAL FOR COLLISION-                
COALESCENCE PROCESS...TOPPED BY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE. AS NOTED BY               
PREVIOUS ARX FORECASTER...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FULL                     
SWING...WHICH WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT.                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST READINGS REACHING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY        
MORNING.                                                                        
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES OVERALL SCENARIO QUITE WELL TONIGHT...SO               
UPDATE NEEDED ONLY TO ADJUST WORDING AND WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 930 P.M.         
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
300 AM MST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                      
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAKENING AS EXTREME                 
NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER LOW RETROGRADES NORTHWEST.  CLOUD MASS OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD.. EXTRAPOLATION                
AND RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD MASS WILL REACH             
THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON.  MODELS MOVE UPPER LOW INTO CENTRAL            
ARIZONA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.. BUT A VORTICITY LOBE DOES ROTATE                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.  ETA/AVN MODEL SUGGEST LIGHT PRECIPITATION           
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.. BUT CURRENT                      
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE               
CENTER OF UPPER LOW.  THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE OF ALTOCUMULUS               
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY OTHERWISE NO INDICATION OF ANY                       
PRECIPITATION THREAT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                            
MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.            
SOME SENSORS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.                
WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND 0C FOR ANOTHER DAY.. EXPECT             
ANOTHER MILD DAY.  BUT THE SNOW COVERED YAMPA RIVER BASIN CONTINUES             
TO BE COLD UNDERNEATH STRONG INVERSIONS.. THE ONLY PORTION OF THE               
FORECAST AREA NOT JOINING IN THE DECEMBER MILD WEATHER PATTERN.  DOES           
NOT APPEAR THE COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN INVERSIONS            
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME MIXING AND WARMING.. WILL GO ALONG WITH                    
TEMPERATURE PERSISTENCE THOSE ZONES WITH PATCHY NIGHTTIME AND MORNING           
FOG.  FRISBIE                                                                   
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
258 AM EST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                      
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS HOLIDAY MORNING...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH               
NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS USHERING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 60S...64                 
DEGREES AT LAST CHECK HERE IN KEY WEST...WITH A FORECAST MINIMUM                
TEMPERATURE NEAR 60 FOR KEY WEST AND THE UPPER 50S FOR THE UPPER                
KEYS LOOKING RIGHT ON TRACK. AT 2AM MIAMI REPORTED 55, WHILE                    
HOMESTEAD REPORTED 50 DEGREES.                                                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SLIDING SOUTHWARD                
ALONG THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA IN THIS COLD ADVECTION                  
PATTERN. THE NEARSHORE EDGE OF THIS BANK OF CLOUDS IS NEARING THE               
LATITUDE OF FORT MYERS AS OF THIS WRITING WITH A FURTHER SOUTHWARD              
INTRUSION VISIBLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. OF CONCERN TO FLORIDA KEYS                  
RESIDENTS WILL BE THE TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS STRATOCUMULUS ON OUR            
COASTAL WATERS AND KEYS SKY COVER. THE TREND IN OUR THOUGHTS ON THE             
ARRIVAL OF THIS STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS TO BRING IT IN SOONER RATHER              
THAN LATER...SLIGHTLY BEFORE NOONTIME CHRISTMAS DAY. THE RUC MODEL              
DEPICTS THE MOVEMENT OF THIS PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS RATHER WELL.                
WITH THE FORECAST WIND TRAJECTORIES REMAINING NEARLY DUE NORTH, I               
EXPECT ONLY THE COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS TO BE                 
IMPACTED BY THESE NUISANCE CLOUDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BE                    
MONITORED RIGHT UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO ARRIVE AT THE BEST                    
FORECAST TIMING AND LOCATION.                                                   
ASIDE FROM THE CONCERNS OF CLOUDS ENTERING OUR FORECAST AREA...THE              
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE KEYS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT OR JUST OVER 20            
KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH WILL REQUIRE SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR CHRISTMAS, CHRISTMAS NIGHT,            
AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OR TWO BEYOND THAT. REASON BEING THAT ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES              
TROUGH...PRESENTLY IN THE JACKSONVILLE VICINITY...WHICH WILL KEEP               
OUR GRADIENT AT LEAST AS TIGHT AS IT IS AT THIS POINT. THE NUMERICAL            
MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE AT LEAST ONE MORE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE                  
TROUGH BEFORE IT BEGINS TO LIFT OUT NEXT WEEK.                                  
OF MINOR CONCERN THIS CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL BE THE COOL APPARENT               
TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPERIENCED WHEN THE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE            
FACTORED IN WITH OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR 60. WIND CHILLS...IF YOU CAN             
CALL THEM THAT BY NORTHERN STANDARDS...WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER             
40S EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY CHILL THOSE NOT ACCUSTOMED TO                
SUCH NON-TROPICAL CONDITIONS.                                                   
GUIDANCE LOOKS RATHER ACCEPTABLE AS FORECASTS FOR THIS SITUATION.               
EYW UV 067/058 069/058 070 320000                                               
.EYW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ATLANTIC WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO              
       20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM INTO THE STRAITS...                 
       FLORIDA BAY...AND GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM...               
       AND GULF WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO 20 NM            
       WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS.                                                    
SETTELMAIER                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                     
COOP REPORTS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT A WHITE XMAS WAS HAD BY                 
RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE               
GREEN MTNS...THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM...MUCH OF CENTRAL VT...AND THE               
HIR TRRN OF SRN VT. XMAS WAS BROWN FOR 2 YEARS IN A ROW HERE AT                 
BTV...WHICH IS PRETTY RARE FOR THESE PARTS. AT LEAST THE TEMPS                  
OUTSIDE FEEL LIKE WINTER FOR A CHANGE.                                          
HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE SE ACRS THE FA TDY...AS A STORM SYS TRACKS               
ACRS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THIS SYSTEM/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE           
DROPPING DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE. H5 UPR RIDGE            
NOT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA UNTIL AROUND 06Z TONITE WITH A              
STRONG VORT MAX DIVING DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE                   
TONITE.                                                                         
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT TO INCREASE INTO TONITE. BUFKIT INDICATES LES            
POSSIBLE ACRS ST LAW VLY FROM 20-23Z TIME FRAME IN SW FLOW...BUT WITH           
TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND NOT MUCH GOING ON ATTM ALONG LK ONT WILL                
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY SN AND JUST HANDLE ANY PCPN THAT MAY                 
DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE STF. ANY PCPN THAT WILL           
OCCUR SHOULD BE VRY LT ANYWAYS (FLURRIES). NGM SHOWS H85 WAA ACRS THE           
FA THRU THE TONITE PERIOD (ALTHOUGH IT IS WK TO START OUT WITH).                
IR SAT PIX SHOW CLDS DROPPING DOWN ACRS ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM.               
TRACKING THESE CLDS HAS THE LEADING EDGE REACHING THE ST LAW VLY BY             
AROUND 21Z (AROUND SUNSET)...THEN ACRS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND             
INTO THE NORTHERN CHAMP VLY BY AROUND 23Z. MODELS SHOW A LIL BIT OF             
DEEPER MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA AFT 18Z TDY...BUT             
FEEL WITH UPR RIDGE STILL IN PLACE AND LEADING EDGE OF CLDS ERODING             
IN THE IR SAT PIX THAT THE CLDS WON/T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE FA            
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED MORE SUN FOR TDY IN THE ZFP              
BECAUSE OF THIS.                                                                
12Z RUC HAS MAX TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN NE VT AND THE                     
ADIRONDACKS...WITH TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAY HAVE TO BUMPS TEMPS DOWN A              
LIL IN THE ST LAW VLY AND IN THE MTNS FOR TDY.                                  
PRELIM WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ISSUANCE AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST LAMP             
DATA.                                                                           
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!                                                         
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                     
UPDATE CONCERNS ARE WITH CLOUDS EARLY AND TIMING OF HIGH WINDS LATE.            
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE NORTH OF MINNESOTA...                 
HAVING RACED ACROSS CANADA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS/METARS SHOW              
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A SURFACE WAVE                
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE.                      
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS                 
MINNESOTA AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE NORTH END              
OF LAKE WINNIPEG.                                                               
12Z RAOBS SHOWED A 150KT 300MB JET PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE ALONG.                 
CLOSER TO THE GROUND...CYQD SOUNDING SHOWED A 75KT 850MB JET AT                 
12Z...AND SURFACE WINDS 42G56KT AT 14Z. CLOSER TO HOME...KINL                   
SOUNDING SHOWED 50KT+ WINDS ABOVE 850MB..BUT WITH A STRONG INVERSION            
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE.                                
LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT               
OVER MINNESOTA. A RATHER LARGE BREAK HAS DEVELOPED OVER WEST CENTRAL            
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH SEEMS TO ALIGN WITH THE 12Z RUC 925MB RH                 
FIELD. THIS BREAK WILL CONTINUE TO WIDEN DURING THE DAY...AS MOST OF            
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT STAYS SOUTH OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. SOME CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE                    
KEWEENAW...AS THE SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PICK UP MOISTURE FROM             
LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                                  
TEMPERATURES DROP RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT CYKJ IN NORTHERN            
ALBERTA...THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DROPPED 31 DEGREES F IN 6 HOURS               
/FROM 41F AT 08Z TO 10F AT 14Z/. THE CAA WILL QUICKLY WIPE OUT THE              
INVERSION AND ALLOW WINDS FROM AT LEAST 850MB TO MIX DOWN TO THE                
SURFACE...AND POSSIBLY FROM 800-750MB DURING THE INITIAL COLD PUNCH.            
12Z RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE 850MB WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION/                
INCREASED MIXING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z ETA               
AGREES.                                                                         
BASED ON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AND DECENT MIXING AS SHOWN BY                      
1000-850MB LAPSE RATES >10C/KM AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE                 
KEWEENAW PENINSULA MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING. WILL             
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING NOW...TO PROVIDE MORE LEAD TIME. WILL                 
ISSUE WARNINGS FOR LAKE SUPERIOR COUNTIES TO THE EAST ALSO...RATHER             
THAN WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT NPW. ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES WHERE              
MIXING IS MORE DIFFICULT.                                                       
COORD WITH APX...DLH...GRB.                                                     
.MQT...HIGH WIND WARNING THIS EVENING MIZ001>003-009                            
       HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT MIZ004>007-014                                 
       HIGH WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ010-013                                    
       STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LAKE SUPERIOR                           
JHB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1150 AM CST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                     
UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT TEMPS/WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS TON.                
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH              
LITTLE SIOUX IOWA JUST MAKING IT TO 30 DEGREES...HERE AT THE STATION            
IN VALLEY WE ARE 46 DEGREES...AND TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO 50S IN THE FAR            
WRN ZONES.                                                                      
SNOWCOVER LINGERS ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR ERN NEB ZONES AND WRN IA.               
THE WNDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO COME UP IN THESE AREAS...THUS WARMEST               
TEMPS FORECAST IN THE WESTERN ZONES.  THIS AM/S SOUNDING AND THE                
FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE WILL NOT SEE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE              
WRM TEMPS ALOFT.  THE 850MB ANALYSIS HAD THE +12 DEG C AIR FM LBF N             
TO SD AND ND...WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE SLIPPING TO SE NEB BY 00Z BY              
ALL THREE MODELS.  THE RUC APPEARS TO MOVE THE WRM AIR OFF TOO                  
QUICKLY IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                      
THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE WNDS...850MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO              
AROUND 50KTS BY SUN AM.  THE NGM WNDS APPEAR                                    
OVERDONE...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED THE TON WND FCST TO REFLECTS SOME            
GUSTS AS A SURGE OF COLDER AIR CLIPS THE FCST AREA.                             
MODELS DIFFER ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE/TIMING FOR -SN LATE SUN AND MON         
AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE AFT AFD.                                                
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1040 AM MST SAT DEC 25 1999                                                     
WILL SHIFT HIGHLIGHTS FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST RUC2             
OUTPUT AND TRENDS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THINK THE WORST             
IS OVER IN SOUTHCENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO WILL DOWNGRADE WINTER STORM                
WARNING TO AN ADVISORY IN ZONES 16 AND 17.                                      
AS FOR HIGHLIGHTS BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ADDRESS THAT                     
POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.  38                                       
.ABQ...SNOW ADVISORY NMZ002-004-005-008-010-011-014-016-017                     
        THIS AFTERNOON...                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   nm