AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1001 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA AS MID LVL                    
DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FL                
BIG BEND ENHANCED SEABREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE.           
STORMS IGNITED ALONG THE HWY 301 AND HWY 1 CORRIDOR IN N FL AND SE GA           
AROUND 6 PM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING THE MAIN HAZARD.                           
ISOLD TS CONTINUE THIS HOUR WHERE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE REMAINS IN                
EASTERN MARION COUNTY AND ACROSS OUR WESTERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY              
ZONES IN FL. THE RUC40 850-500 MB DPVA SHOWS ENERGY ROTATING NWD                
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THUS                
EXPECT CURRENT CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH A FEW ISOLD                   
SHRA POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WX                
GRIDS TO REFLECT DECREASING P0P TREND. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE               
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE. ALSO NOTED                
THAT KJAX WAS NEAR FORECASTED MIN AT 9 PM...LIKELY A REMNANT COLD               
POOL/MESOHIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS CONVECTION. ADJUSTED                 
MINS DOWN SLIGHTLY ONLY BY A DEG OR SO ACROSS THE INTERIOR.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SSW 10-12 KTS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS WITH SEAS ~2 FT.                
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NWD FROM              
SOUTH FL. MAGNITUDES EXPECTED NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. CURRENT CWF                
LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  74  96  74  95 /  30  40  40  50                                           
SSI  78  93  78  94 /  20  30  30  40                                           
JAX  74  96  75  96 /  30  40  40  50                                           
SGJ  76  93  77  94 /  20  30  30  30                                           
GNV  73  95  74  95 /  30  40  30  30                                           
OCF  73  95  74  94 /  30  40  30  30                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ENYEDI                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
855 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WHAT A BUSY EVENING THIS HAS BEEN WITH NUMEROUS                   
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                 
WARNINGS AS WELL IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS            
A COUNTERCLOCKWISE ROTATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH CENTER OF             
CIRCULATION APPEARING OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. EXAMINATION OF THE             
RUC MODEL SHOWS A STRING OF VORTICITY MAXIMA FROM PENSACOLA TO                  
DOTHAN TO WAYCROSS. MSAS ALSO REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR ALBANY            
GEORGIA.                                                                        
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA BUT                   
STARTING TO PICK UP OVER GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO MOVING                  
TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE                
GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. EVENING SOUNDING            
FROM KTAE SHOWS A FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 16KFT AND THIS WILL LIKELY              
PRECLUDE ANY HAIL THREAT.                                                       
THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF POPS IN THE EVENING FORECAST WILL BE               
REALIGNED IN THE FIRST SIX HOURS (00Z TO 06Z) TO MATCH BETTER WITH              
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO 50 POPS OVER GA AND                
AL...40 POPS OVER PANHANDLE FLORIDA WITH 30 POPS ELSEWHERE. THINK               
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING             
PAST MIDNIGHT SO WILL WORD THE TONIGHT PERIOD "SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT."                                   
TEMPS ALREADY COOLER THAN FORECAST MINS IN ALABAMA DUE TO THE RAIN.             
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WARM SO WILL LOWER                
TEMPS WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA RIVER IN FLORIDA.                                
REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL ISSUE ZONES AND OTHER               
PRODUCTS SHORTLY. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT!                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCT SHWRS/TSRA ACTIVITY IS ON A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS            
THE FL PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS STILL ONGOING               
ACROSS SE AL AND SW GA. KEPT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MOST SITES THROUGH             
02Z...BUT MAY EXTEND IT A FEW HOURS FOR DHN AND ABY SITES IF                    
ACTIVITY IS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT AREAS OF REDUCED VSBYS TO                 
NEAR MVFR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR VLD.                 
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE-GODSEY                                                            
AVIATION-SHAFER                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1030 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
...TRANSITIONING TOWARD MUCH LOWER RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS...                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DATA FROM WEATHER BALLOON THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO             
ADVECT FROM THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS LIFTED A BIT                  
FARTHER NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA. PWATS ARE DOWN TO 1.73" AND               
EXPECT TO SEE AN EARLIER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT AXIS                
SHIFTING NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE...              
ATM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED AS STRONG UPPER HIGH BUILDS             
IN FROM THE EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR (IN THE MID LEVELS) CAN BE SEEN                
APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS AND THIS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD FLORIDA              
NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                                  
RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN MARTIN AND ST              
LUCIE COUNTY (15%) AND HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES (30%).                    
STEERING FLOW REMAINS VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE S/SE SO SLOW MOVING                 
STORMS MAY PRODUCE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS BUT AS               
MENTIONED COVERAGE WILL NOT BE HIGH. H5 TEMPS STILL RATHER COOL                 
(-7.7C) SO ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INVOF BOUNDARY COLLISIONS            
LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE INTERIOR. BUT TREND IS TOWARD WARMING AND               
STABILIZING ALOFT.                                                              
FORECAST FOR MID 90S INTERIOR AND LOW 90S COAST LOOKS GOOD. HAVE                
UPDATED GRAPHICAL WIND PRODUCTS FOR TODAY AND WILL UPLOAD TO WEB                
PAGE SHORTLY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN LEG OF CSTL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH            
SW WIND NR 5 KTS AT BUOY 41009 AT 8 AM. FOR MARINE UPDATE...EXPECT              
WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTN AS EAST COAST SEA            
BREEZE DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FCST WITH A 2-3 FT SWELL            
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOWER COVERAGE OF AFTN STORMS EXPECTED TODAY. TAF SITES             
MCO AND SFB HAVE PROB30 FOR LATE AFTN CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS IN TSRA.              
WILL HAVE TO DECIDE TO REMOVE THIS OR GO TEMPO AT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE              
AND AM LEANING TOWARD REMOVING IT. PROBABILITY OF RESTRICTIONS AT               
COASTAL TAFS (DAB/MLB/VRB) ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.                 
&&                                                                              
.RADAR...RESET THE STORM TOTAL PRECIP PRODUCT AT 12Z.                           
&&                                                                              
NOAA GOES-N WEATHER SATELLITE IS SCHEDULED TO BE LAUNCHED FROM CAPE             
CANAVERAL THIS EVENING. LAUNCH WINDOW IS 6:32 TO 7:06 PM. THE                   
GEOSTATIONARY OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES OPERATE IN                   
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT 22,300 MILES ABOVE THE SURFACE. BY REMAINING               
OVER A FIXED LOCATION...THEY PROVIDE INVALUABLE ASSISTANCE TO                   
METEOROLOGISTS 24 HOURS A DAY IN FORECASTING AND TRACKING SEVERE                
WEATHER (AND THE CONDITIONS OR "TRIGGERS" THAT CAN PRODUCE SEVERE               
WEATHER) INCLUDING HURRICANES...FLOODING...TORNADOES AND HAILSTORMS.            
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KELLY/VOLKMER                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
920 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH                  
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR STLT AND RUC PLACES WEAK LOW                
OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...THE RUC/MSAS/SFC                  
OBS SUPPORT LOCATING A SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD                 
WITH AN AXIS ALONG THE FL/GA/AL STATE LINE. THIS IS PROVIDING A                 
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA WHILE THE NORTH END                
...CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS...HAS CALM OR MOSTLY VARIABLE VERY                  
LIGHT WINDS. THE 12Z TBW RAOB SHOWS A PWAT OF ~1.75 INCHES WITH                 
-8.7 AT H5. VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. SO...ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF                
SCATTERED TSTMS/ 40 POPS/ ALONG WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE. CURRENT                 
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH NO UPDATE NEEDED. HOWEVER WILL                  
RE-ISSUE THE GRAPHIC HWO AND BUMP UP THE LIGHTING ACROSS MOST OF                
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO CONCERNS ON THE COASTAL WATERS UNLESS YOU ARE NEAR OR IN           
A TSTM. THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND NW OF THE AREA.              
HOWEVER ISOLATED RW/TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NOON TIME INTO THE               
EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG THE SHORE. ONLY CHANGE TO             
THE CURRENT FOREST WILL BE ADJUST FIRST PERIOD WORDING FOR THE NORTH            
ZONE TO: VARIABLE BECOMING WEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE WITH THE                   
FORECAST OUT BY 1015 AM.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
957 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...A LEE TROF DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO IS HELPING KICK                   
WIND SPEED UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...STILL LIGHT BY LOCAL                
STANDARDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER 80S AT                  
MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS SURROUND THE SOUTHERN AND                
WESTERN FORECAST AREA...AND SOME OF THIS WILL SPREAD NORTH TOWARD               
I-70 AS 850MB FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. KIT CARSON AND                     
CHEYENNE COUNTIES COLORADO SHOULD SEE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...AND                
THIS MAY HINDER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT. ALSO                    
EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.                    
TAKING A LOOK AT INSTABILITY...THE 12Z DENVER SOUNDING SHOWED AN                
IMPROVEMENT IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.                   
MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP ANY INSTABILITY OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BUT MODIFIED GFS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AXIS OF              
AT LEAST 500 J/KG CAPE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IF TEMPERATURES               
CAN REACH THE LOWER 80S. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID LEVEL FORCING IS               
ABSENT. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE APPEARS THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT. FEEL                 
THIS IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT POPS IN THE ZONES...BUT WOULD NOT               
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ATTEMPTS AT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT                  
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 385 THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WOULD                
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 140 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT                 
WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE                
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF               
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR             
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EVENTUALLY RIDES OVER THE            
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. SEE LITTLE REASON            
FOR MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO             
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FORCING REMAINING NORTH            
OF THE AREA. DECIDED TO HOLD THE DRY FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH            
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING PRECIPITATION.                                           
WEDNESDAY LOOKS MORE INTERESTING AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE               
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND THE EXIT             
REGION OF UPPER JET BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN               
THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE AFTER 18Z IN CONVERGENCE NORTH            
OF LEE TROUGH ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. 0-6KM MEAN WIND WILL ALLOW               
THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST ZONES.                
KEPT AN EVENING MENTION WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST              
ZONES.                                                                          
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE/MWM                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
1045 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT CENTRAL PORTIONS            
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE OBS HAVE SHOWN A RATHER WEAK PUSH                 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING AS UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE BOUNDARY. 12Z RUC/NAM DATA ALSO                  
SUPPORT THE SLOWER CLEARING. WILL ADJUST ZONES TO REFLECT MORE CLOUD            
COVER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO                  
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY                   
ISSUANCE TIME. WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS (UP IN             
CLEAR AREAS...DOWN IN CLOUDY AREAS). ALSO ADJUSTED HOURLY                       
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. DEW POINTS WERE              
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...SHRA VERY SLOW TO EXIT                    
THE COASTLINE.  GFS IN THE SHORT RANGE DROPS HEALTHY DOES OF QPF                
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO THE COASTLINE...AND TO SOME                  
EXTENT...THIS IS VERIFYING.                                                     
PCPN SHOULD BE OFF THE COASTLINE BY 13Z.  DRYING SLOW TO OCCUR OVER             
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN             
PLACE ON A NE FLOW.  CLEARING TO ARRIVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE.               
WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALL ZONES.  WINDS WILL                  
BECOME LIGHT HOWEVER.  WITH A MOIST GROUND FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAIN...            
EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY COOL TO DEW POINT LEVELS.  EXPECT AT                    
LEAST PATCHY FOG...HOWEVER THE FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS.            
A VERY CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP FOR THE MOUNTAINS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.  A WEAK                       
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY                    
NIGHT THEN FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO A DRIER NWLY SURFACE FLOW FOR            
WED AND THU AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW                
ENGLAND. A RETURN TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE                   
WEEKEND AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 3H(HAZY HOT HUMID) WEATHER CLOUDS WITH            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FRIDAY           
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIFTING                     
CEILINGS.  MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS              
FOG DEVELOPS IN PROTECTED AREAS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL DROP THE SCA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE                
PEAKED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS AT 20 TO 25 KT. THIS BROUGHT             
SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT IN MOST OF OUR WATERS. WITH WINDS ON THEIR WAY             
DOWN...SEAS SHOULD LEVEL OFF...AND EVENTUALLY DROPPING.                         
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE: APFFEL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE                    
SLIPPING INTO NW ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER JET EXTENDING ACROSS             
SRN MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT RUNS FROM ND INTO              
NW MN AND ONTARIO. ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF FRONT            
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SHRA HAVE             
ACTUALLY REDEVELOPED IN NE MN DURING THE LAST HR. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE             
MOVING INTO SRN MN HAS PRODUCED A BATCH OF MID CLOUDS FROM SRN MN               
INTO WCNTRL WI.                                                                 
00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 1000J/KG WHICH SUPPORTED             
ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME              
HEATING...CONVECTION WILL NO LONGER BE SFC BASED. AS FOR ELEVATED               
CONVECTION...SMALL AREA OF 200-400J/KG CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM             
850MB OVER NE MN RIGHT NOW PER RUC WHERE CURRENT SHRA ARE                       
REDEVELOPING GRADUALLY LOWERS BLO 100 J/KG AS IT SHIFTS E TOWARD THE            
KEWEENAW OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTING SHRA POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED                  
FARTHER E. EVEN SO...WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE KEWEENAW                 
OVERNIGHT. WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN MENTION ELSEWHERE.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT.                                                
FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY A LIGHT                
RAIN SHOWER AS UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH AND UPPER                  
MICHIGAN RECEIVES THE TAIL END OF ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...MAINLY WEAK             
850MB-700MB Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND MINIMAL UPPER SUPPORT FROM 300MB             
JET STREAK TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. HIGH PRES BUILDING                
DOWN SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR TUE THROUGH WED...WITH GOOD                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP              
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH WARMER TEMPS NEAR THE                       
LAKESHORES.                                                                     
FOR WED...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS                    
SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE DAKOTAS LOOKS TO CREATE A DECENT RETURN               
FLOW...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING SLIGHTLY ON WED AND AGAIN ON              
THU AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 14C TO 16C. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION              
AND INCREASING 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT...EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO            
ARRIVE TO THE WESTERN CWA WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU                
AFTERNOON AS CWA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR. GFS/NAM SHOW SOME                     
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...PUTTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NOSING AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE CWA. HAVE              
LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH DEPICTS LIGHTER STRATIFORM               
RAINFALL...WITH MORE INTENSE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THU               
NIGHT INTO FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                                     
IN THE EXTENDED...A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AS THE            
GENERAL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOR A SLOWER TREND OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING             
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE UPPER            
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH SAT. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT                       
DIFFERENCES WITH THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...GFS IS MORE               
SOUTHERLY TAKING IT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUN...WHILE THE                
ECMWF/UKMET DEPICT A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NORTHERLY TRACK FROM                  
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AT 00Z SAT TO JAMES BAY BY 00Z SUN. HPC GUIDANCE              
FAVORS THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS            
MODEL RUNS...AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THIS DEPICTS THE TROUGH OVER THE             
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRI AND SAT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING                
OVERHEAD FOR SUN AND MON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR               
FRI AS CWA LIES IN THE WARM SECTOR...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH            
EXPECT A COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. AS TO HOW MUCH COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR REMAINS TO BE SEEN...ECMWF DEPICTS 850MB TEMPS             
DROPPING TO AROUND 6C ACROSS THE CWA BY 00Z SUN. WITH SURFACE HIGH              
OVERHEAD ON SUN AND POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...COULD              
BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE INLAND AREAS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE             
RECENT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH DAYS 6-7 OF THE FORECAST...WILL HOLD OFF             
ON GOING TOO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
LAROSA (DISCUSSION)                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1207 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY                
FURTHER CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                          
WSR 88-D REGIONAL MOSAIC SHOWING SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT TO OUR                   
SOUTH...WEST AND NORTH THIS HOUR. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY             
IS ALONG THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE LA COAST...AND IN             
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER E TX/W LA/SW ARK. 250MB JET                      
DIAGNOSIS FROM THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS MY NW ZONES UNDER THE                
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION...HOWEVER THIS AREA IS ALSO IN A LOW            
LEVEL (1000-850MB) THETA-E MINIMA. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE             
MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER W/LA AND S             
ARK IS ASSOC WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...WHICH MAY             
COUNTERACT THE MINIMA CURRENTLY OBSERVED. IN ANY EVENT...CONVECTION             
WILL FLIRT W/ MY NW ZONES AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS.                       
ELSEWHERE...VIS IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A VOID OF CU. THIS WILL CHANGE            
THIS AFTERNOON W/ A CU FIELD DEVELOPING AROUND 5KFT. LIKE                       
YESTERDAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZATION OF              
SHRA/TSRA...HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE TO PREVENT VERY ISO AIRMASS                 
SHRA/TSRA. THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR (SFC-6KM VALUES AT 3 M/S) WILL                
MEAN THAT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR. THIS               
WILL RESULT IN MOST AREAS OBSERVING NO RAINFALL...AND VERY ISO SPOTS            
SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. SO...GOING FORECAST OF SLIGHT CHC               
POPS QUITE REASONABLE. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.            
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z PACKAGE WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENCE FORECAST...WITH VCTS AT KHBG             
AND KGLH THIS AFTERNOON. A SCT CU DECK AT 5KFT WILL DEVELOP THIS                
AFTERNOON AND DISINTEGRATE AFTER SUNSET. BRIEF MVFR VIS EXPECTED                
AGAIN TOMORROM MORNING MOST SITES...OTHERWISE NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS             
EXPECTED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GAGAN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1025 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BASED ON THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING...AND CURRENT WAT VAP/RUC                      
INITIALIZATION DATA...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.                      
AS EXPECTED...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL THWART                
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TODAY. PWS ARE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY...              
AROUND 1.7 INCHES...AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO              
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN EXPECTED...HIGH               
TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (93-97F). ALL OF THIS WILL            
RESULT IN SBCAPES AND MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH LIS AROUND -6C.             
WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE STILL QUITE DECENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR                  
(6.7C/KM AND 850/500 T DIFFERENCE OF 28C)...THE LACK OF FOCUSING                
MECHANISMS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW CLIMO TODAY. FOR NOW...HAVE             
CUT POPS BACK IN MY CENTRAL ZONES TO SLIGHT CHC...AND LOWERED POPS              
IN MY NW ZONES TO 30%. ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS                  
LOWERING POPS AGAIN IN THE NW AS A THETA-E MIN HAS BEEN NOTED IN                
THIS AREA AT LOW LEVELS.                                                        
AM EXPECTING THE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE TO APPROACH SW ZONES BY LATE             
AFTERNOON AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POPS IN THIS AREA.                    
PRODUCTS ALREADY SENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GAGAN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
917 AM MDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPDATE            
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DECK OF CLOUDS JUST ALONG THE                   
NORTHERN BORDER.  THESE CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS LOCATION AS                
UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  ALSO MODELS/RUC AND               
ETA/INDICATE VIA THE CU RULE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP MUCH                
DURING THE DAY.  SO HAVE REDUCED SKY COVER IN THE GRIDS AND THIS                
RESULTS IN LESS CLOUDY WORDING IN THE ZONES.                                    
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND SO DOES WIND.  WILL HAVE UPDATE OUT                  
SHORTLY.  TLSJR                                                                 
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                  
MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE             
PERIOD...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE            
PERIOD. FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW GFS HAS PUSHED BACK TIMING OF             
COLD FRONT...WITH ITS SOLUTION NOW SHOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT. OTHER MODELS A BIT QUICKER WITH THE FRONT...AND WILL LEAN                
TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. IN EITHER CASE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE              
ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE KEPT THINGS NEAR ENSEMBLE MEAN...WITH A 25-30            
DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN WARMEST AND COOLEST MEMBERS AT ALL LOCATIONS              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT SHOULD              
RESULT IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO HAVE KEPT POPS AS IS                
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MODELS                 
BEGINNING TO PULL SURFACE LOW FURTHER SOUTH SO BACKED OFF POPS...BUT            
WITH UPPER LOW IN THE AREA A FEW SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.               
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE COME                
INTO AGREEMENT THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE AREA WITH                 
TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE WEST COAST. DRY AND WARM FORECAST ALREADY IN             
PLACE...AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BUMP UP TEMPS A TAD AND LOWER CLOUD            
COVER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW STRONG THERMAL RIDGE                     
GETS...AS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO               
THE 90S. JJZ                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA...SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS               
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY                  
NIGHT...EXCEPT AT KGGW WHERE EAST WIND IN THE MID TEENS EXPECTED TO             
DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT. JJZ                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
603 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WILL ISSUE AN EARLY UPDATE TO TONE DOWN THE POPS THIS EVENING.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 220 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONVECTION POPPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH             
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE              
PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA HIT THE                
CONVECTIVE TEMP. ACTIVITY HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE VERY WEAK                
SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA & THIS IS LIKELY TO FILL IN AS                 
WELL. WILL CARRY SCATTERED STORMS... MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH             
EARLY TRANSLATING TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING... THEN DRY                    
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM INDICATING PREVAILING NW FLOW AT 850 MB. THE             
RUC INDICATES A STEEPENING SUBCLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATE THROUGH 00Z &              
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED                
CELLS. LOWS 71-75.                                                              
TUE THROUGH THU: DISTINCT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FEATURES ARE HARD TO              
COME BY... WHICH MAKES TRYING TO TIME RAINFALL WITH ANY PRECISION               
DIFFICULT. THE NAM/GFS HOLD A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN              
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TUE THEN DROP IT WELL SOUTH AS               
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST GFS RUN                 
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT & DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST NC BY LATE WED             
WITH THE NAM LAGGING A LITTLE BEHIND. HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT MUCH            
IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO NC SINCE CURRENT              
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LARGELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MO TO OH... SO                 
WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE NW OR N FROM LATE WED INTO                 
THU... TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS'S WETTER SOLUTION WITH ISENTROPIC                  
UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE. WILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED STORMS TUE.               
HIGHER CHANCES WED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH... AND              
IF LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... LIKELY POPS MIGHT             
BE WARRANTED IN LATER FORECASTS. EXPECT HIGHS 90-96 TUE... THEN                 
82-87 WED WHICH IS A NOTCH ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THE                     
POSSIBILITY THAT A BOUNDARY MAY LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC THU & WITH               
BOTH MODELS SHOWING DRYING AND STABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH...                
WITH KEEP CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY SOUTH FOR THU WITH HIGHS 81-86...               
NEAR GFS ENSEMBLE MOS.                                                          
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
THE PRIMARY FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD INCLUDE AN ANOMALOUS UPPER            
VORTEX TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING A BRIEF SOUTHWARD              
NUDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS                 
LIKELY TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS NC FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSOLVING AND            
RETREATING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON            
SYSTEM SPEED AND TROUGH AMPLITUDE ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO NOT HAVE             
SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR NC UNTIL TUE ONWARD. THE LATEST GFS IS            
NOT AS DEEP AS THE 00Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND THIS LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION            
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER              
OR NOT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR SOUTH            
THU BASED ON THE WEAK CHARACTER OF THE NOSING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND             
ITS UPPER JET... FAVOR A RETENTION OF CHANCE POPS DAILY... SCATTERED            
SHOWERS AND STORMS ROUGHLY 16Z-02Z FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT              
NIGHT... WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED. ON FRI A MINOR MID LEVEL                 
PERTURBATION CROSSES EASTERN NC AND MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH                    
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW... SO POPS SHOULD HOLD ON THE LOW            
END OF CHANCE IN THE NORTH & SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST               
FRINGES. EXPECT A BIT BETTER POPS FOR SAT... STILL HIGHEST SOUTHEAST            
AS THE FRONT HEADS NORTHWARD & A LOW LEVEL SHEAR ZONE SITS OVER THE             
COASTAL PLAIN. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WNW ON SUNDAY THROUGH             
MON WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS LIKELY TO EXTEND               
ACROSS VA/KY SUNDAY AND SRN VA/TN MON... SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE                 
SHOULD BE LESS PARTICULARLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE AREAS BOTH DAYS.             
PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD HIT JUST BELOW NORMAL FRI              
THEN ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONVECTION BEGINNING AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CELLS MOVING IN FROM THE            
FOOTHILLS. LITTLE REASON TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST MUCH PAST               
SUNSET. DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL MUCH BELOW SIX MILES                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF RIVERS OR LAKES. CEILINGS               
UNLIMITED OUTSIDE CONVECTION AND AREA WIDE AFTER DARK. CUMULUS                  
SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY TUESDAY THAN TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MLM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
220 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
THROUGH TONIGHT: CONVECTION POPPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BENEATH             
THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE              
PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA HIT THE                
CONVECTIVE TEMP. ACTIVITY HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ALONG THE VERY WEAK                
SURFACE TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA & THIS IS LIKELY TO FILL IN AS                 
WELL. WILL CARRY SCATTERED STORMS... MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH             
EARLY TRANSLATING TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING... THEN DRY                    
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NAM INDICATING PREVAILING NW FLOW AT 850 MB. THE             
RUC INDICATES A STEEPENING SUBCLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATE THROUGH 00Z &              
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH ISOLATED                
CELLS. LOWS 71-75.                                                              
TUE THROUGH THU: DISTINCT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FEATURES ARE HARD TO              
COME BY... WHICH MAKES TRYING TO TIME RAINFALL WITH ANY PRECISION               
DIFFICULT. THE NAM/GFS HOLD A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN              
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TUE THEN DROP IT WELL SOUTH AS               
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST GFS RUN                 
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT & DRIER AIR TO SOUTHEAST NC BY LATE WED             
WITH THE NAM LAGGING A LITTLE BEHIND. HAVE SOME SKEPTICISM THAT MUCH            
IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO NC SINCE CURRENT              
PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LARGELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MO TO OH... SO                 
WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE NW OR N FROM LATE WED INTO                 
THU... TEND TO FAVOR THE GFS'S WETTER SOLUTION WITH ISENTROPIC                  
UPGLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE. WILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED STORMS TUE.               
HIGHER CHANCES WED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH... AND              
IF LATER MODEL RUNS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT... LIKELY POPS MIGHT             
BE WARRANTED IN LATER FORECASTS. EXPECT HIGHS 90-96 TUE... THEN                 
82-87 WED WHICH IS A NOTCH ABOVE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. WITH THE                     
POSSIBILITY THAT A BOUNDARY MAY LIE ACROSS SOUTHERN NC THU & WITH               
BOTH MODELS SHOWING DRYING AND STABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH...                
WITH KEEP CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY SOUTH FOR THU WITH HIGHS 81-86...               
NEAR GFS ENSEMBLE MOS.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
THE PRIMARY FEATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD INCLUDE AN ANOMALOUS UPPER            
VORTEX TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA PRODUCING A BRIEF SOUTHWARD              
NUDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS                 
LIKELY TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS NC FRI BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSOLVING AND            
RETREATING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON            
SYSTEM SPEED AND TROUGH AMPLITUDE ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO NOT HAVE             
SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR NC UNTIL TUE ONWARD. THE LATEST GFS IS            
NOT AS DEEP AS THE 00Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND THIS LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION            
LOOKS MORE REASONABLE. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER              
OR NOT THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR SOUTH            
THU BASED ON THE WEAK CHARACTER OF THE NOSING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND             
ITS UPPER JET... FAVOR A RETENTION OF CHANCE POPS DAILY... SCATTERED            
SHOWERS AND STORMS ROUGHLY 16Z-02Z FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT              
NIGHT... WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED. ON FRI A MINOR MID LEVEL                 
PERTURBATION CROSSES EASTERN NC AND MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH                    
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW... SO POPS SHOULD HOLD ON THE LOW            
END OF CHANCE IN THE NORTH & SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE SOUTH/EAST               
FRINGES. EXPECT A BIT BETTER POPS FOR SAT... STILL HIGHEST SOUTHEAST            
AS THE FRONT HEADS NORTHWARD & A LOW LEVEL SHEAR ZONE SITS OVER THE             
COASTAL PLAIN. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES FROM THE WNW ON SUNDAY THROUGH             
MON WITH THE SYNOPTIC FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS LIKELY TO EXTEND               
ACROSS VA/KY SUNDAY AND SRN VA/TN MON... SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE                 
SHOULD BE LESS PARTICULARLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE AREAS BOTH DAYS.             
PROGGED THICKNESSES SUGGEST TEMPS SHOULD HIT JUST BELOW NORMAL FRI              
THEN ABOVE NORMAL SAT-MON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONVECTION BEGINNING AT THIS TIME WITH SOME CELLS MOVING IN FROM THE            
FOOTHILLS. LITTLE REASON TO THINK ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST MUCH PAST               
SUNSET. DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL MUCH BELOW SIX MILES                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF RIVERS OR LAKES. CEILINGS               
UNLIMITED OUTSIDE CONVECTION AND AREA WIDE AFTER DARK. CUMULUS                  
SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY TUESDAY THAN TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
140 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SAT AND RADAR PIX                 
SHOWG CBRZ JUST STRTG TO FORM DURING THE ERLY AFTN HRS. THRS A LTL              
ACTVTY JUST N OF CWA AND IN SC. WND MAY HV TOO MUCH OF A WLY                    
COMPONENT TO ALLOW CBRZ TO PENETRATE TOO FAR INLAND. WL GO WI ISOLD             
NR THE CST TNGT WI NO MNTN PCPN INLAND...UNLESS THINGS CHGS BFR                 
ISSUE TM. ON TUE XPCT MR CHC AS THE LO LVL CNVRGNC STARTS TO INCRS              
WI THE TROF TO OUR W. FRNT TO DROP INTO TROF POSN TUE EVE AND THRU              
THE AREA BY SR WED. WL HV HIEST POPS TUE EVE AND NGT. TEMPS WL BE               
SEASONABLE TNGT THRU TUE NGT WI HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE                
70S. HTNDX WL BE HI TUE AHD OF THE APPCHG FRNT...BUT DONT XPCT IT TO            
RCH ADV CRIT. WL HDLN IT IN THE ZFP.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TEMPS TO DROP WED BHND FRNT.            
WL HV NO WX IN GRIDS BHDN FRNT IN NLY FLO SINCE MDLS SHOWG A MARKED             
DCRS IN MSTR. ONSHR FLO WL INCRS MSTR AGAIN THU AFTN SO HV TYPICAL              
DIURNAL ACTVTY THU INTO SAT. TEMPS TO COME BACK TO SEASONABLE BY THE            
END OF THE WK. BEGINNING OF NXT WK CUD SEE ANTHR SYS TO DROP INTO               
AREA SO HV INCRSD POPS FOR THE LAST PD.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TSTMS FORMING ON THE SEABREEZE AGAIN THIS                  
AFTERNOON. MAY PRODUCE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR                            
CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL JUST SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS FOR THE BALANCE             
OF THE DAY. BUFKIT FOG ANALYSIS SHOWS LTL IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG               
FORMATION TONIGHT WITH LOW CROSSOVER TEMPS...BUT WILL INCLUDE HAZE              
IN AVIATION PRODUCTS TOWARD MORNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LIGHT MAINLY OFFSHORE FLOW PRODUCING 2 TO 3 FT SEAS                   
THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREDICTED BY RUC...FLOW IS STARTING TO BACK AND              
BECOME MORE S/SSW AS WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.                    
FCST THRU TUES NIGHT WILL BE FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SW FLOW AND SEAS               
2 TO 3 FT. BY WEDS...BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX PUSH BOUNDARY THRU MUCH              
OF THE CSTL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAINLY BE A WIND SHIFT LINE              
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMP/MOISTURE CHANGE ALONG IT. WINDS WILL             
VEER TO N/NE WEDS INTO EARLY THURS. THE FRONT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH             
AND WILL EVENTUALLY WASH OUT WITH GENERAL FLOW BECOMING SE/S/SW AGAIN           
BY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS REMAIN AOB 4 FT. NO SCA FLAGS ARE                 
ANTICIPATED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.                                               
.RIP CURRENTS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SWELL ENERGY AND LIGHT                
WINDS...WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO GO BACK DOWN TO A LOW THREAT OF                
RIP CURRENTS OVER THE NRN WATERS ON TUES. SRN WATERS WILL BE A                  
LTL MORE MARGINAL...GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE WINDS AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL             
TIDES...AND MAY LOOK OVER A LTL MORE DATA BEFORE DECIDING.                      
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CGG/CTC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1050 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTH PORTIONS OF THE CWA                  
THIS AFTERNOON. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS               
JUST NORTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA STATE LINE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER ALONG               
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER                
NORTHERN MANITOBA. ALSO...EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF                         
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA            
WESTWARD. MODEL HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT-TERM            
WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH UPPER WAVE OVER                 
NORTHERN CANADA. BOTH INDICATE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT OVER                   
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA THIS EVENING. INSTABLITY PARAMETERS ARE               
RELATIVELY WEAK WITH 0 TO +2 SHOWALTERS...LI OF -2 AND 0-6 KM BULK              
SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KTS. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z GFS TO UPDATE THUNDER                  
CHANCES IN THE NORTH.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
15Z ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA                 
WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST WARD ACROSS WESTERN                
MANITOBA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE                       
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY. A SHORT              
WAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND A                  
LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN                     
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005)                         
DISCUSSION AND SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES                  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BUT NONE APPEAR A THREAT TO TOUCH OFF                 
CONVECTION TODAY EXCEPT POSSIBLY ONE OVER NORTHWEST CORNER OF                   
MT ATTM. A VERY WEAK ONE OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST ND IS PROGRESSING               
QUICKLY ON WATER VAPOR. ITS MOMENTUM WILL TAKE IT WELL EAST OF                  
THE AREA BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS. SO THUNDER WAS REMOVED FOR                   
THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST MN. ONE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT WILL                  
SLIDE INTO SD WITHOUT AFFECTING EASTERN ND. ONE GENERATING A FEW                
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN SASK AND ALBERTA IS NOT RECOGNIZED WELL BY                
MODELS...EXCEPT RUC DOES AT LEAST ACKNOWLEDGE ITS PRESCENCE BEFORE              
WASHING OUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF IT BEFORE ENTERING ND. ALL OF               
THESE ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING YESTERDAY                  
MORNING AND THEY SHOW LESS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE STORMS. HOWEVER LEFT              
THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS EVENING IN THE OFF CHANCE THE SHORTWAVE              
IN NORTHWEST MT CAN LIFT MOISTURE IN SD TRYING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD.             
LONGER TERM (TUE ONWARD)...NAM STILL ADVOCATES A TIGHTER BAROCLINIC             
BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER ND ON TUE. OTHER MODELS KEEP IT FARTHER                
NORTH ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF A LOW THEY INSIST ON DEVELOPING IN                
EASTERN MT. AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THE NAM IS WRONG AND IF NOT THEN             
WE HAVE AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW               
LEVEL JET NOSES OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH A DECENT JET COUPLET.             
MOST THREAT PROBABLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LIKE THE IDEA             
OF INCREASING POPS DURING THIS TIME AND ACCEPTED HPC QPF GRIDS FOR              
THIS PERIOD BUT HAVE NOT SUGGESTED SEVERE. BEYOND THIS TIME HAVE                
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL CHOICES STILL AND MADE FEW CHANGES.                  
EUROPEAN STILL SEEMS TO BE PERFORMING WELL AND ITS 00Z RUN SUGGESTS             
DRYING US OUT BEYOND THU IN CONTRAST TO GFS SWEEPING SIGNIFICANT                
QPF ACROSS THE AREA DURING THESE DAYS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
204 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
WAVY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN OH/IN. SATELLITE IMAGERY                  
DEPICTS WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO                             
CURRENTLY...WHICH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO                 
THE -SHRA/DZ. STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BACK                 
ACROSS MO IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS. FOCUSED                   
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE TAFS ON SECOND WAVE...WHICH THE LATEST SHORT              
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE 06-12Z TIMEFRAME.          
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...AND EXPECT               
THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TAFS RELFLECT TREND OF WORSENING                    
CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH.       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 824 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
UPDATED FORECAST TO COVER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
MIAMI VALLEY. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA FOR EARLY THIS                  
MORNING. UPPED POPS TO 50 IN DELAWARE...UNION...LICKING.                        
REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                                     
SITES                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 645 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WEAK MID LVL VORT HELPING TO KEEP AREA OF -SHRA GOING ACRS NRN                  
FCST AREA...JUST NORTH OF KDAY AND KCMH. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THRU               
MID MRNG AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN AT THESE TWO TAF SITES. MORE                
RAIN ACRS SRN ILLINOIS IN ASSOC WITH STRONGER S/WV. THIS FEATURE                
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. WHILE PCPN IS                      
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF FCST...HAVE KEPT                 
KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KLCK DRY THIS MRNG. BRING IN VCSH FOR AFTN AND ERLY              
EVNG WITH AREAL COVERAGE TO PCPN LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH               
OF S/WV. BOTH 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC INDCG INSTABILITY WILL BE                 
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS                        
AFTN...WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ONLY MENTION OF VCTS WILL               
BE AT KCVG/KLUK DURING AFTN HOURS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK                
IN PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS EVNG BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV AND SFC LO                  
APPCH FCST AREA AFT 06Z. AC/CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE AT ALL TAF                  
SITES THRU FCST PERIOD...WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.                 
06Z ETA ALREADY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING ONGOING PCPN. HAVE                    
TRENDED TAF FCST TOWARDS 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC AS A RESULT.                   
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 218 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN               
KENTUCKY. KILN RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN                      
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH                  
CLOUDS BEING A THINNER ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                        
NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE                  
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW                
PLENTY OF LIFT WITH MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW                 
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT THEN TRIES TO              
PULL TO THE SOUTH OF REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN.                      
WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS AND                 
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY RELIABLE FOR PIN POINTING PRECIP. THUS               
NOT GOING TO BUY 00Z RUNS HOOK AND SINKER. BUT WILL NOT IGNORE                  
LATEST RUN AND TRENDS.                                                          
WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAV FOR LOWS AND TO MET FOR HIGHS.                          
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED. FOR THOUGHTS OF               
PREVIOUS FORECASTER SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 434 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
NAM A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT ON                
TUESDAY...BUT BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING IT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE            
OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE DAY. SERIES OF WAVES FORECAST TO RIDE EAST               
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH              
BUT NORTHWARD EXTENT SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP                 
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND INDICATE             
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.                                              
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE              
FRONT BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE FAR               
ENOUGH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP FA DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO               
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS FARTHER NORTH GFS              
WOULD PUT OUR SOUTHERN FA RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF PCPN CHANCES. LOOKS              
LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA                  
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN CONTINUING.                     
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY WITH  HOW FAST TO PUSH             
NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND STRENGTH OF             
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE IT AT THIS POINT IS            
TO STICK WITH CONSISTENCY AND GENERALLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR             
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
824 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST TO COVER AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
MIAMI VALLEY. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY IN THAT AREA FOR EARLY THIS                  
MORNING. UPPED POPS TO 50 IN DELAWARE...UNION...LICKING.                        
REST OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.                                                     
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 645 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
WEAK MID LVL VORT HELPING TO KEEP AREA OF -SHRA GOING ACRS NRN                  
FCST AREA...JUST NORTH OF KDAY AND KCMH. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THRU               
MID MRNG AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN AT THESE TWO TAF SITES. MORE                
RAIN ACRS SRN ILLINOIS IN ASSOC WITH STRONGER S/WV. THIS FEATURE                
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. WHILE PCPN IS                      
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF FCST...HAVE KEPT                 
KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KLCK DRY THIS MRNG. BRING IN VCSH FOR AFTN AND ERLY              
EVNG WITH AREAL COVERAGE TO PCPN LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH               
OF S/WV. BOTH 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC INDCG INSTABILITY WILL BE                 
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS                        
AFTN...WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ONLY MENTION OF VCTS WILL               
BE AT KCVG/KLUK DURING AFTN HOURS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK                
IN PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS EVNG BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV AND SFC LO                  
APPCH FCST AREA AFT 06Z. AC/CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE AT ALL TAF                  
SITES THRU FCST PERIOD...WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.                 
06Z ETA ALREADY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING ONGOING PCPN. HAVE                    
TRENDED TAF FCST TOWARDS 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC AS A RESULT.                   
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 218 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN               
KENTUCKY. KILN RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN                      
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH                  
CLOUDS BEING A THINNER ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                        
NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE                  
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW                
PLENTY OF LIFT WITH MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW                 
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT THEN TRIES TO              
PULL TO THE SOUTH OF REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN.                      
WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS AND                 
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY RELIABLE FOR PIN POINTING PRECIP. THUS               
NOT GOING TO BUY 00Z RUNS HOOK AND SINKER. BUT WILL NOT IGNORE                  
LATEST RUN AND TRENDS.                                                          
WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAV FOR LOWS AND TO MET FOR HIGHS.                          
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED. FOR THOUGHTS OF               
PREVIOUS FORECASTER SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 434 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
NAM A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT ON                
TUESDAY...BUT BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING IT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE            
OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE DAY. SERIES OF WAVES FORECAST TO RIDE EAST               
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH              
BUT NORTHWARD EXTENT SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP                 
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND INDICATE             
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.                                              
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE              
FRONT BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE FAR               
ENOUGH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP FA DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO               
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS FARTHER NORTH GFS              
WOULD PUT OUR SOUTHERN FA RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF PCPN CHANCES. LOOKS              
LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA                  
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN CONTINUING.                     
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY WITH  HOW FAST TO PUSH             
NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND STRENGTH OF             
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE IT AT THIS POINT IS            
TO STICK WITH CONSISTENCY AND GENERALLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR             
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
645 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
WEAK MID LVL VORT HELPING TO KEEP AREA OF -SHRA GOING ACRS NRN                  
FCST AREA...JUST NORTH OF KDAY AND KCMH. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THRU               
MID MRNG AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PCPN AT THESE TWO TAF SITES. MORE                
RAIN ACRS SRN ILLINOIS IN ASSOC WITH STRONGER S/WV. THIS FEATURE                
PROGGED TO TRACK EAST ACRS REGION THIS AFTN. WHILE PCPN IS                      
POSSIBLE AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF FCST...HAVE KEPT                 
KCVG/KLUK/KILN/KLCK DRY THIS MRNG. BRING IN VCSH FOR AFTN AND ERLY              
EVNG WITH AREAL COVERAGE TO PCPN LIKELY TO INCREASE WITH APPROACH               
OF S/WV. BOTH 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC INDCG INSTABILITY WILL BE                 
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS                        
AFTN...WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ONLY MENTION OF VCTS WILL               
BE AT KCVG/KLUK DURING AFTN HOURS. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK                
IN PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS EVNG BEFORE ANOTHER S/WV AND SFC LO                  
APPCH FCST AREA AFT 06Z. AC/CU WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE AT ALL TAF                  
SITES THRU FCST PERIOD...WITH LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT.                 
06Z ETA ALREADY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING ONGOING PCPN. HAVE                    
TRENDED TAF FCST TOWARDS 06Z GFS AND CURRENT RUC AS A RESULT.                   
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 218 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN               
KENTUCKY. KILN RADAR SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING INTO SWRN                      
FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH                  
CLOUDS BEING A THINNER ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                        
NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY. SURFACE                  
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW                
PLENTY OF LIFT WITH MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING IN THE WESTERLY FLOW                 
ALOFT...ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT THEN TRIES TO              
PULL TO THE SOUTH OF REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN.                      
WILL GO CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS MODELS AND                 
GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN VERY RELIABLE FOR PIN POINTING PRECIP. THUS               
NOT GOING TO BUY 00Z RUNS HOOK AND SINKER. BUT WILL NOT IGNORE                  
LATEST RUN AND TRENDS.                                                          
WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAV FOR LOWS AND TO MET FOR HIGHS.                          
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED. FOR THOUGHTS OF               
PREVIOUS FORECASTER SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 434 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
NAM A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT ON                
TUESDAY...BUT BOTH GENERALLY SHOWING IT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE            
OHIO RIVER THROUGH THE DAY. SERIES OF WAVES FORECAST TO RIDE EAST               
ALONG THE FRONT. MAIN IMPACT WITH THESE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH              
BUT NORTHWARD EXTENT SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP                 
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH ON TUESDAY AND INDICATE             
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.                                              
SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH TO PUSH THE              
FRONT BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE FAR               
ENOUGH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP FA DRY. HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO               
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS FARTHER NORTH GFS              
WOULD PUT OUR SOUTHERN FA RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF PCPN CHANCES. LOOKS              
LIKE WHAT IS LEFT OF BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE AREA                  
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN CONTINUING.                     
MODELS HAVE HAD QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY WITH  HOW FAST TO PUSH             
NEXT FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND STRENGTH OF             
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT. THINK BEST WAY TO HANDLE IT AT THIS POINT IS            
TO STICK WITH CONSISTENCY AND GENERALLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR             
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR SUNDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
820 PM MDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE CWA. LOSS OF SOLAR               
INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED CU TO DISSIPATE LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.              
EXPECT UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR              
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. RUC SUGGESTING ELEVATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP             
ACROSS SD TONIGHT...BUT MAIN THRUST SHOULD BE EAST OF US.                       
HENCE...HAVE REMOVED EVENING POPS AND LEFT OVERNIGHT DRY. REST OF               
FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1040 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RETURN FLOW WAA HAS BEEN QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING AREA OF SCT               
SHRA ACRS NWRN CWA THIS MORNING. STILL QUITE COOL ALFT ON MORNING               
RAOBS...AND HELPED BY COMPACT UPR WAVE MOVING THRU WRN SD. FOCUS                
FOR PRECIP HAS NOW SHIFTED ENTIRELY N OF I 90...AND WL FOCUS WITHIN             
AREA OF MIDLVL CONVERGENCE. DO NOT BUY INTO RUC CONCEPT OF                      
DEVELOPING A LITTLE OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CONVECTION            
WHICH FOCUSUS DEVELOPMENT ALG I 90 BY LATE AFTN. RATHER...WL                    
SUBSCRIBE MORE ON ETA/WRF LOCATION ACRS NERN CWA CLOSER TO UPR WAVE             
AND LKLY RESTING PLACE OF MID LVL CONVERGENCE...AS DO NOT ANTICIPATE            
ANYTHING SFC BASED. WL ALSO INCLUDE ISOLD THUNDER WITH SOME STEEPER             
MID LVL LAPSE RATES UPSTREAM ON UNR RAOB.                                       
INCREASED N/S TEMP DIFFERENTIAL THRU THE DAY...AS LOWERED TMPS A                
NOTCH IN FAR NE AND TEMPERED A BIT ACRS N WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS                 
EXPECTED TO LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTN. ACRS PARTS OF NW IA AND FAR              
SERN SD...INCREASED SUNSHINE SHUD ALLOW CLOSER TO FULL MIXING TMPS              
TO AT LEAST 900 HPA...AND RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN CHC FOR                 
THUNDERSTORM WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  EARLY THIS                         
MORNING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE                     
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED              
TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD HIGHWAY 14. WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM                    
ADVECTION DURING THE MORNING.  WITH MOISTURE VERY                               
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE...LITTLE IF ANY QPF IS                    
EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN CWA THIS                    
MORNING...ALSO SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING.              
THIS WILL SLOW THE DIURNAL RISE..ESPECIALLY FROM BKX TOWARD MML.                
ONLY THE FLOW TURNING SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL HELP TEMPS RISE              
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.                                                      
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW                   
PRESSURE DEVELPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTH OF             
THE CWA MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS IN SW MN BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL             
REMAIN OVER ERN MN TONIGHT.  SIMILARLY...AS THE WARM FRONT                      
INTENSIFIES ACROSS NRN SD AND CENTRAL MN...MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP              
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AGAIN...THIS MAY MEAN MORE CLOUDS OVER SW MN             
BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF             
THE CWA AND 700 MB TEMPS WILL BE RISING ANY WEAK LIFT DUE TO THE                
WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP AS MOISTURE WILL            
BE LIMITED.  WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE                
MUCH WARMER IN MOST LOCALES.  ON TUESDAY...MUCH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE            
OVER ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL BE BACK IN            
THE 90S IN THE WRN CWA WITH 80S ELSEWHERE.                                      
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING                 
NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LAPSE RATES RISE ABOVE 7               
C/KM. THIS RESULTS IN LI/S BELOW -4.  THEY ALSO SHOW A WEAK WAVE                
MOVING NORTHWARD ON THE SRN PERIPHARY OF THE WESTERLIES.  WITH WEAK             
CONVEREGENCE SHOWN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND SOME SYNOPTIC              
SCALE LIFT...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  BASED UPON             
TIMING OF WAVE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT THIS CHANCE TO BE AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTH OF I90.  THE                 
SURFACE FRONT THEN MOVES INTO CENTRAL SD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH             
ALMOST 2 DAYS OF SRLY FLOW...DEW POINTS SHOULD BE INTO THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S AND TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.  A                 
STRONG WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW              
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN                   
CENTRAL SD AND THEN SPREAD EAST OR NORTHEAST. SOME SHEAR...PRIMARILY            
BELOW 3 KM...EXISTS WEDNESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...FLOW IS RELATIVELY            
WEAK SO DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY...SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIMITED TO             
THE WRN CWA LATE IN THE DAY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP                  
SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST...MEANING NORTHWEST IOWA WILL HAVE THE LEAST              
CHC OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                  
MODELS ARE HINTING THAT STRONGER WAVE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY                  
PREVENT FROPA UNTIL LATE THURSDAY OR EVEN ON FRIDAY.  BECAUSE OF THE            
LARGE UNCERTAINTY THAT HAS EXISTED WITH THE PROPAGATION OF THIS                 
FRONT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANCE TO FORECAST              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN/SCHUMACHER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
844 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES CONTINUING      
TO MOVE ESE ALONG FRONT STUCK JUST N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.                  
MSAS AS WELL AS 00Z RAOBS SHOW INSTABILITY REMAINING DECENT                     
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO SUSPECT THAT WILL               
TAKE A WHILE FOR RESIDUAL TSRA TO DIE OUT ACROSS THE N THIS                     
EVENING. HOWEVER THE LATEST WRF INDICATES SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG               
THE FRONT PAST MIDNIGHT WHILE THE RUC BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT.                  
THUS PLAN TO LEAVE IN A LOW CHANCE UP N OVERNIGHT ALTHO IFFY AFTER              
02Z WHILE GOING SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST DRY PARTS OF NW NC WHERE                  
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LESS INSTABILITY PERSIST. FOG QUITE A BIT LESS              
LAST NIGHT UNDER MARGINAL FOG STABILITY VALUES...AND WITH SIMILAR               
CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT SAW                 
RAINFALL TO SEE PATCHY COVERAGE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS                
TONIGHT...APPEARS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE NEEDED TO CURRENT MUGGY                   
FORECAST LOWS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 725 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEGINNING TO DIE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA AND                      
CONCENTRATE FURTHER NE. WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT THRU THE                   
NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER                   
WINDS AND HIGHER DWPTS. DEEPER MOISTR DROPPING DOWN AHEAD OF THE                
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHC TO LIKLIHOOD               
OF TSTMS. SOME MVFR CU CIGS POSSIBLE TMRW...ESP BLF/LWB.                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG LOW LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC. THESE              
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NW NC                
PIEDMONT. LAPS AND MSAS SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NEAR THE PEAKS OF OTTER...NORTHEAST               
INTO NORTHERN VA...WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS ACROSS THE            
APPALACHIANS. IT IS HARD TO PICK THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS            
WOULD BE FOR THE PIEDMONT AREAS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING               
THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. I              
HAVE CLOSE TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THERE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN               
KEPT 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. MODELS KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING                     
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE OLD SFC FRONT...SO I KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE INDUCES A WAVE ALONG THE OLD             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING AN AREA OF                    
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTROMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. I PUT A              
LIKELY CHANCE INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHWEST                    
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...AND A HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.                               
STAYED CLOSE THE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WE WERE ALREADY                       
FORECASTING. THE MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY LOOKED A LITTLE              
COOL UNLESS WE HAVE A LOT OF SKY COVER...SO I RAISED HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5 DEGREES.                                                    
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF TRANSITIONS FOR              
THE MAIN CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND            
CANADA. CURRENTLY THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS               
BEING DOMINATED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE COAST              
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. HOT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING               
CLOCKWISE AROUND THIS HIGH AND INTO OUR REGION. THE RESULT HAS BEEN             
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY ADDITIONAL                
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR BETTER COVERAGE THAN THAT. HEADING INTO THE             
WEEKEND THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST                
ALONG THE GULF COAST SHORE...AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN              
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AS THIS IS TAKING PLACE...LOW PRESSURE                   
CENTERS IN CANADA WILL HAVE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO BOTH INTENSIFY                
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND THUS A              
BETTER CHANCE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OR COLD FRONTS TO ENTER OR MOVE             
THROUGH OUR REGION.                                                             
THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE             
AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF             
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT            
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN AGAIN              
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTS PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA            
WILL MEAN THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST                
NORTH CAROLINA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA              
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.                                                    
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION             
HEADING INTO FRIDAY...SO BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF STORMS WILL BE              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF               
NORTH CAROLINA.                                                                 
AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONT CURRENTLY IS INDICATED TO PUSH THROUGH            
THE REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
DEEPENS OVER QUEBEC AND HEADS INTO ONTARIO. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE              
HAS TENDED SLOWER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT BEHIND              
IT LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...AND COOLER AIR...ASSUMING IT               
DOES IN FACT MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA...FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT               
WEEK.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN              
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MODELS SHOW              
THIS ORGANIZING SOMEWHAT AND PROPAGATING INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN              
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE                
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...SO I EXPECT              
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTROMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AND INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHC FOR A TSTM WOULD BE LYH AND DAN AT              
THIS POINT...BUT STILL LESS THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE...SO I ONLY                
INCLUDED VCNTY SHOWERS IN THE THE TAFS. DEPENDING UPON RAINFALL...WE            
COULD SEE IFR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. I INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD                
TOWARD MORNING FOR LWB...BLF AND DAN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF               
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTROMS FOR THE AREA TUESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
138 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN              
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MODELS SHOW              
THIS ORGANIZING SOMEWHAT AND PROPAGATING INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN              
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE                
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...SO I EXPECT              
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTROMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS                      
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHC FOR A TSTM WOULD BE LYH               
AND DAN AT THIS POINT...BUT STILL LESS THAN A 50 PERCENT                        
CHANCE...SO I ONLY INCLUDED VCNTY SHOWERS IN THE THE TAFS.                      
DEPENDING UPON RAINFALL...WE COULD SEE IFR FOG AND STRATUS                      
DEVELOP. I INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD TOWARD MORNING FOR LWB...BLF                 
AND DAN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTROMS FOR                
THE AREA TUESDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1038 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
IT IS GETTING HARDER TO FIND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO               
OUR NORTH...BUT USING THE SURFACE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE              
INDICATES IT EXTENDS ACROSS CEN WV AND INTO EXTREME NRN VA AT THIS              
TIME AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. STILL THINKING THAT THIS BOUNDARY                
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH              
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST WV AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA. HOWEVER...BOTH               
THE RUC AND THE 06 AND 12Z NAM MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA              
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                     
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE- ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND               
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...WOULD                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY. THE NORTHWEST            
FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH YESTERDAY TO SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT IN MY REGION...BUT MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING THIS                    
AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /POPS/ IN ALL OF THE MOS            
OUTPUTS IS ALSO FINALLY A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY. SO...HAVE LEFT CHANCE            
POPS BUT RAISED CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN EXTREME            
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC. RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT THIS                   
EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING- ESPECIALLY IN              
THE PIEDMONT SO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. MODIFIED               
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG...SO ISOLATED STRONG                
PULSE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. FREEZING LEVELS ARE              
HIGH ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF A THREAT.                          
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE               
JUST AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS- AND IT LOOKS LIKE             
WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN. THE GREENSBORO SOUNDING IS ACTUALLY A               
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. I HAVE RAISED THE HIGH                    
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW DEGREES- SHOULD SEE A LOT OF MID              
90S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY AND WITH HIGH HUMIDITY HEAT IDICES WILL BE            
AROUND 100.                                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 632 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FROM 11 TO 13 UTC...THERE WILL BE SOME LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE                
MTN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO FOG NEAR THE RIVERS.                  
ELSEWHERE ONLY LIGHT HAZE WILL BE OBSERVED. THE MORNING FOG SHOULD              
DISSIPATE BY 14 UTC. WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP              
DURING THE AFTERNOON... COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST FOCUS                
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WVA WHICH MAY EFFECT               
BLF/LWB.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 334 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
ANOTHER SULTRY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD                 
AID DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC PROCESSES AND COMBINE WITH WARM 85H TEMPS               
(+21 DEG C) FOR ANOTHER L/M 90 DEG AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE              
BLUE RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SHOULD YIELD                 
HEAT INDICIES NR 100 FOR DANVILLE. MTNS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE                    
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN THE WAY OF                       
AFTNERNOON CU FORMATION THERE PER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
FROM THE OH VLY.                                                                
POP THREAT THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS WVA. SFC                   
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY RUNS ALONG MASON DIXON...THEN SW ALONG OH                  
RIVER...WILL BE FOCUS FOR AFTN THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED                         
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL                      
THREATEN PARTS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY.                        
ELSEWHERE FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS               
IN LOW CHC RANGE PER POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE CELL DEVELOPMENT FROM                 
MOUNTAIN DIFFERENCIAL HEATING. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL              
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS THE THERMAL TROF WHICH WILL BE INDUCED EAST                 
OF THE MTNS FROM THE HEAT. THIS LEE TROF MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT                
FOR DEEP CONVECTION THERE. BOTTOM LINE...ENTIRE FCST AREA SUBJECT               
TO CHC AFTN TSTM...HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WVA COUNTIES PER                         
ANTICIPATED ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                       
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SFC FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAKING A RUN               
FOR US ON TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE IN THE DAY               
WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH FRONT OVER THE AREA...ANTICIPATE                 
HIGHEST CONVECTIVE THREAT AT THAT TIME. SINCE FRONT APPEARS THAT                
IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...BUMPED TUESDAYS TMAX                 
UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...ESP SOUTHERN CWA.                     
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...SO                 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW MUCH OF A POP IS NEEDED FOR THE                       
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMP FCST ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BIT                       
TRICKY...ALL FCST ELEMENTS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON PROXIMITY OF FRONT               
AT THAT TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
IT IS GETTING HARDER TO FIND WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO               
OUR NORTH...BUT USING THE SURFACE EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE              
INDICATES IT EXTENDS ACROSS CEN WV AND INTO EXTREME NRN VA AT THIS              
TIME AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. STILL THINKING THAT THIS BOUNDARY                
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH              
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST WV AND THE HIGHLANDS OF VA. HOWEVER...BOTH               
THE RUC AND THE 06 AND 12Z NAM MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECONDARY AREA              
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                     
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE- ESPECIALLY FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND               
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THESE STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...WOULD                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY. THE NORTHWEST            
FLOW WAS STRONG ENOUGH YESTERDAY TO SUPPRESS MOST THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT IN MY REGION...BUT MODELS SHOW IT WEAKENING THIS                    
AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /POPS/ IN ALL OF THE MOS            
OUTPUTS IS ALSO FINALLY A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY. SO...HAVE LEFT CHANCE            
POPS BUT RAISED CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN EXTREME            
SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NC. RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT THIS                   
EVENING IN THE PIEDMONT. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING- ESPECIALLY IN              
THE PIEDMONT SO LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY. MODIFIED               
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG...SO ISOLATED STRONG                
PULSE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. FREEZING LEVELS ARE              
HIGH ENOUGH THAT LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LESS OF A THREAT.                          
AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGHS SHOULD BE               
JUST AS WARM AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS- AND IT LOOKS LIKE             
WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN. THE GREENSBORO SOUNDING IS ACTUALLY A               
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. I HAVE RAISED THE HIGH                    
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA A FEW DEGREES- SHOULD SEE A LOT OF MID              
90S IN THE PIEDMONT TODAY AND WITH HIGH HUMIDITY HEAT IDICES WILL BE            
AROUND 100.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 632 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FROM 11 TO 13 UTC...THERE WILL BE SOME LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE                
MTN VALLEYS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DUE TO FOG NEAR THE RIVERS.                  
ELSEWHERE ONLY LIGHT HAZE WILL BE OBSERVED. THE MORNING FOG SHOULD              
DISSIPATE BY 14 UTC. WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP              
DURING THE AFTERNOON... COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST FOCUS                
FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS WVA WHICH MAY EFFECT               
BLF/LWB.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 334 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
ANOTHER SULTRY DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD                 
AID DOWNSLOPE ADIABATIC PROCESSES AND COMBINE WITH WARM 85H TEMPS               
(+21 DEG C) FOR ANOTHER L/M 90 DEG AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE              
BLUE RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 SHOULD YIELD                 
HEAT INDICIES NR 100 FOR DANVILLE. MTNS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE                    
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN THE WAY OF                       
AFTNERNOON CU FORMATION THERE PER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
FROM THE OH VLY.                                                                
POP THREAT THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS WVA. SFC                   
FRONT THAT CURRENTLY RUNS ALONG MASON DIXON...THEN SW ALONG OH                  
RIVER...WILL BE FOCUS FOR AFTN THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED                         
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY VERY WELL                      
THREATEN PARTS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA LATER IN THE DAY.                        
ELSEWHERE FORCING APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP POPS               
IN LOW CHC RANGE PER POTENTIAL FOR SINGLE CELL DEVELOPMENT FROM                 
MOUNTAIN DIFFERENCIAL HEATING. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL              
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS THE THERMAL TROF WHICH WILL BE INDUCED EAST                 
OF THE MTNS FROM THE HEAT. THIS LEE TROF MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT                
FOR DEEP CONVECTION THERE. BOTTOM LINE...ENTIRE FCST AREA SUBJECT               
TO CHC AFTN TSTM...HIGHEST POPS IN OUR WVA COUNTIES PER                         
ANTICIPATED ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                       
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH SFC FRONT TO OUR NORTH MAKING A RUN               
FOR US ON TUESDAY. THE NAM BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE IN THE DAY               
WITH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY                
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH FRONT OVER THE AREA...ANTICIPATE                 
HIGHEST CONVECTIVE THREAT AT THAT TIME. SINCE FRONT APPEARS THAT                
IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...BUMPED TUESDAYS TMAX                 
UPWARD A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...ESP SOUTHERN CWA.                     
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND TUESDAY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...SO                 
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW MUCH OF A POP IS NEEDED FOR THE                       
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TEMP FCST ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BIT                       
TRICKY...ALL FCST ELEMENTS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON PROXIMITY OF FRONT               
AT THAT TIME.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
401 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP COVERAGE AND                     
INTENSITY WITH PASSING SYSTEM.                                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MOVING EAST WITH                 
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA MOVING ACROSS THE               
GREAT BASIN REGION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING 60KT JET CORE           
ROUNDING BASE OF LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA AIDING IN ONGOING                   
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AND UTAH ATTM. AT THE SFC...                  
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...                  
WITH SATELLITE DATA INDICATING SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING              
ATTM. MSAS DATA AND SFC OBS ALSO INDICATING WEAK LEE TROUGHING                  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR ATTM.                                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TO WEAKEN AS IT            
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE WESTERN WYOMING           
TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED JET MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO. AMPLE               
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH                  
INCREASED UVV WITH PASSING SYSTEM...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS THIS                     
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN              
MTS THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW               
LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AS WELL...               
WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPES BETWEEN 500-1200J/KG THIS                       
AFTERNOON. WITH STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND SOME WEAK QG ASCENT                
ASSOCIATED WITH JET HAVE INCREASED POPS A TAD ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO           
AS WELL. BULK SHEARS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH JET NOSING INTO            
WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER                  
STORMS...PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY              
RAIN. HOWEVER SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST                  
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH H5 DRY SLOT            
MOVING INTO THE STATE. -MW                                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE A COUPLE OF WARM AND RELATIVELY                 
DRY DAYS WED THROUGH FRI...A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN SAT FOR SERN                   
CO...AND THEN BACK TO MODERATING TEMPS AND DRIER WEATHER NEXT                   
WEEK.                                                                           
WED THROUGH FRI...SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE US WITH THE NRN               
JET STREAM RUNNING AROUND THE US-CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SRN JET                
STREAM OVER THE DESERT SW INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS.                
DURING WED AND THU...RELATIVELY DEEP S-SWLY FLOW MIGHT TAP INTO SOME OF         
THE DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE DESERT SW PER CURRENT WATER                  
VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE                
(H7-H5) AND INSTABILITY TO POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW SHRA AND TSRA                 
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND DRIFTING E-NEWD GIVEN THE MEAN CLOUD                  
LAYER FLOW. SFC DRYLINE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH ITS DIURNAL                      
MIGRATION ACROSS ERN CO THANKS TO MIXING AND PBL COOLING. SOUNDINGS             
SUGGEST INVERTED-V THERMAL STRUCTURE...SO THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY              
SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE LITTLE RAINFALL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.                  
WITH H7 TEMPS APPROACHING +16C...THIS WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE HIGH                
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS SERN CO. BY FRI...THE NRN AND                
SRN ULJ STREAMS ARE POTENTIALLY PHASING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. SOME               
00Z/16 MODEL DIVERGENCE STARTING TO OCCUR AS GFS80 IS NOT AS                    
AMPLIFIED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS THE                  
NAM. NAM'S SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS80.               
STILL ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP LOW POPS                
GOING FOR FRI.                                                                  
SAT...THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS VERY CHALLENGING THIS FAR OUT. GFS80              
WANTS TO "BLOW UP" SOME CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER ERN CO/WRN KS INTO              
RESPONSE TO THE MODEL GENERATING A H5 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN A                  
"COLD POCKET". THE STRENGTH OF SFC COOLING DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG                
THE CP AIRMASS IS COMING OUT OF CANADA...ANY POST FRONTAL                       
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS FORMING...OR IF ANY POST FRONTAL                   
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPS. 00Z/16 ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE                
SFC HIGH PRESSURE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY              
HAS SERN CO SOME 5-10 DEGS COOLER THAN FRI...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE               
CURRENT FORECAST.                                                               
SUN THROUGH TUE...IF THE COOL DOWN DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN IT                   
WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED WITH A MODERATING TEMP TREND AND LESS                
POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS. [METZE]                              
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
422 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM..TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                               
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KY THROUGH CENTRAL VA TO               
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 06Z. LEANING TOWARD               
THE 00Z NAM AND 06Z RUC SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE GFS            
LOOKS TO STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TODAY. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS              
INDICATE AN AREA OF SLOWLY FALLING SFC PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN OH               
AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN WV THROUGH 08Z...AND RADAR TRENDS BETWEEN               
07Z AND 08Z SHOW LIGHT RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS THESE AREAS. NAM AND              
RUC SHOW A VORTMAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND NORTHERN MD BETWEEN            
12Z AND 18Z FOLLOWED BY A SECOND VORTMAX BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z                    
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS             
CENTRAL VA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN WEAK WAVES OF               
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TODAY THROUGH                
EARLY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS             
EVENING AND THEN DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT...AS SFC              
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN            
FROM THE NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                        
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS TO THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT...WITH FORCING REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND FAIRLY OBVIOUS                  
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WORKING INTO OUR AREA. ON THURSDAY A WEAK S/W             
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BUT THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING                  
APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL HOLD ON THE PATTERN...THEREFORE              
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS THURSDAY AND THE NEXT MENTION              
OF PRECIP WILL NOT BE TIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER S/W                            
APPROACHES...AND OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE.                 
MEANWHILE A SFC RIDGE REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE REGION AND                   
OVERALL QPF SHOULD REMAIN MINOR IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES.                      
TEMPS IN THIS EXTENDED RANGE FCST SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO LATE            
AUGUST NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER               
60S FOR LOWS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BWI/MTN/DCA/IAD/MRB            
TODAY WITH VFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 04Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN               
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN FOG AT CHO THROUGH                
11Z THIS MORNING...WHEN LIGHT RAIN WILL INITIATE SOME MIXING AND                
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR. AFTER 13Z MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL                      
PREDOMINATE IN LIGHT RAIN AND MIST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMITH                                                     
LONG TERM...JB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
353 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                      
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ON RADAR OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA APPEARS               
TO BE OVER A 925 MB WIND MAXIMUM AND IN AN AREA OF 850 MB WARM                  
ADVECTION. THE RUC MODEL CONFINES THESE FEATURES TO AREAS JUST WEST             
OF THE TWIN CITIES AND DAMPENS THEM OUT 15Z THIS MORNING. THE NAM               
AND GFS MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MOVEMENT            
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS NOT              
AS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS OUR FORECAST               
AREA. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NO PUSH BEHIND THE COLD                 
FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.               
BEST AREA OF CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST IN              
HIGH THETA E AIR AND LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL              
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF A MESO SCALE                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST BUT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY             
STALL TO OUR NORTH AND FORECAST LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION IS ALSO             
TO OUR NORTH. CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ACTIVE ACROSS OUR COUNTY            
WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE THETA E RIDGE              
WORKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT            
SHOULD FINALLY MAKE A MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY TRIGGER THE BEST CHANCE             
OF CONVECTION AND THESE ARE TIMED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                
THURSDAY.                                                                       
LONGER TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                            
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH ECMWF AND GFS (12Z AUG 15 AND 00Z AUG                       
16...RESPECTIVELY) CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP 50H CLOSED LOW OVER                  
MANITOBA BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MPX CWA.            
CONFIGURATION OF DIFLUENT 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SURFACE                   
PRESSURE FORECAST SUGGEST GOOD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A TRIPLE              
POINT OCCLUSION. PATTERN IS STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND                    
SUGGESTIVE OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. WE ARE                   
CURRENTLY CARRYING PRECIP ON FRIDAY WITH NEW MEX FIGURES SUGGESTIVE             
OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SURROUNDING                 
OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO                 
LINGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT               
AND BEEF UP SYSTEM STRENGTH.                                                    
NEW GFS AND ECMWF TAKE CENTER OF WEEKEND COLD OUTBREAK TO THE NORTH             
AND EAST OF OUR AREA...WHILE LATEST DGEX DRIVES COLD AIR INTO                   
WISCONSIN WHICH WOULD MEAN A MUCH COLDER WEEKEND. WE WILL STAY WITH             
THE WARMER SOLUTION FOR THE MOMENT.                                             
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
350 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN                  
MISSOURI THIS MORNING.  BOUNDARY IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ATTM...BUT            
THE EFFECTIVE FRONT IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE ALONG A LINE FROM                     
SPRINGFIELD MO TO FARMINGTON OUT TO EVANSVILLE INDIANA.  THERE'S                
DEFINITELY A NICE CONTRAST BETWEEN AIRMASSES WITH FARMINGTON                    
REPORTING 72/70 AND QUINCY REPORTING 64/63 AT 300 AM.                           
FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIP BAND IS SHOWING UP NICELY ON RADAR STRETCHING            
FROM CALLAWAY COUNTY THROUGH THE STL METRO INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.             
THE RUC SHIFTS THE FRONTOGENESIS A BIT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW                   
HOURS...SO I'LL LIKELY CALL AN AUDIBLE BEFORE ZONE-TIME FOR MORNING             
POPS. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BUMP UP A BIT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.                
NEITHER THE GFS OR THE NAM SHOW MUCH SUPPORT FOR PUSHING                        
THE BOUNDARY ONE WAY OR ANOTHER TODAY SO HAVE KEPT THE STATUS QUO.              
DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TODAY AS FAR AS POPS GO...WITH               
CHANCES FROM AROUND VANDALIA TO JEFFERSON CITY AND SOUTHWARD.  WITH             
DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER SOUTH OUT OF IOWA...I THINK THE COVERAGE             
SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF                      
DAYS...BUT MY CHANCE POPS WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO DRY                           
SOMEWHERE...AND TOO WET IN OTHER PLACES.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OF             
COURSE DEPEND VERY STRONGLY ON PRECIPITATION.  GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE              
SHOWN A BIT OF A WARM BIAS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY            
OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.  HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH HIGHS A            
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE I'VE              
GOT POPS IN THE FORECAST.                                                       
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT                     
TONIGHT...BUT THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWFA...MUCH LIKE WHAT'S HAPPENING                
OVER EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS RIGHT NOW.  HAVE KEPT              
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS TO             
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                                                               
FRONT FINALLY WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WE GET MORE SOUTHERLY                 
FLOW.  NAM TRIES TO GET SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP GOING LATE                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE GFS             
REMAINS DRY.  ECMWF AND UKMET TEND TO SUPPORT THE NAM WITH A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE RIPPLING ALONG INTO EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI                   
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM ADVECTION/PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE.  THINK IT'S ENOUGH FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE NAM SPAWNS AN MCS OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES             
IT EAST INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  GFS IS SIMILAR...BUT THERE LOOKS            
LIKE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.              
HAVE OPTED TO BASICALLY TWEAK GOING FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY TO BLEND             
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADOPT THE WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH TO                 
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  GUIDANCE WARMS US BACK                
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY THURSDAY AND THIS LOOKS                       
REASONABLE...AS LONG AS THE FRONT ACTUALLY WASHES OUT AND WE GET                
BACK INTO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS DISCUSSED ABOVE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
516 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
HAVE ADJUSTED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA.                
STILL EXPECT SHOWER PROBABILITIES TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT EXIT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE               
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES THE SAME TODAY BUT HAVE                
CONCERNS THESE COULD BE ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S IF COVERAGE OF                    
SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO MIDDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 312 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
HAVE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR                 
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER            
OHIO VALLEY. RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY LIMITED THIS                   
MORNING BUT THEN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEPT            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE              
THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING            
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO WENT WITH DRY              
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                                          
FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORED COOLER GFS MOS VALUES OVER WARMER NAM MOS            
AS THE GFS MOS VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY.                                       
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUES TO FOLLOW TREND OF EARLIER RUNS IN              
SHOWING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE                 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL CHANCE WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF            
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW             
FRIDAY...COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AT               
LOW LEVELS. THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE              
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT              
SOME COOL RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE               
SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT GENERALLY P6SM OVC040-050 STRATOCUMULUS TODAY PER LATEST                 
UPWIND SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE TO 5SM            
-SHRA BR OVC020 IN THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH CUMULONIMBUS                
POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON               
HOURS. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON            
AND TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
312 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                   
HAVE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR                 
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER            
OHIO VALLEY. RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY LIMITED THIS                   
MORNING BUT THEN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEPT            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE              
THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING            
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO WENT WITH DRY              
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                                          
FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORED COOLER GFS MOS VALUES OVER WARMER NAM MOS            
AS THE GFS MOS VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                           
LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUES TO FOLLOW TREND OF EARLIER RUNS IN              
SHOWING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE                 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL CHANCE WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF            
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW             
FRIDAY...COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AT               
LOW LEVELS. THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE              
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT              
SOME COOL RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE               
SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT GENERALLY P6SM OVC040-050 STRATOCUMULUS TODAY PER LATEST                 
UPWIND SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE TO 5SM            
-SHRA BR OVC020 IN THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH CUMULONIMBUS                
POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON               
HOURS. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON            
AND TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
130 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS S WV/N VA WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF WAVES            
TRACKING ALONG IT THRU TUE NIGHT. ONE WAVE BROUGHT A FEW SCT TSRA TO            
THE AREA THIS AFTN/EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE EXITED THE AREA.                  
WHERE IT RAIN MON AFTN AND MTN/RIVER VALLEYS WILL BE THE BEST AREA              
TO SEE MVFR/IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. A STRONGER WAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION            
LATE TUE AFTN BRINGING BETTER AREAL COVERAGE OF TSRA TO THE AREA.               
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND LINGER DEEP INTO TUE NIGHT.                      
COMMS PROBLEMS CONTINUES AT KDAN. WILL ISSUE TAF WITH NO AMENDMENTS             
SCHEDULED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 844 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES                 
CONTINUING TO MOVE ESE ALONG FRONT STUCK JUST N OF THE AREA THIS                
EVENING. MSAS AS WELL AS 00Z RAOBS SHOW INSTABILITY REMAINING DECENT            
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW CLOSER TO THE FRONT...SO SUSPECT THAT WILL               
TAKE A WHILE FOR RESIDUAL TSRA TO DIE OUT ACROSS THE N THIS EVENING.            
HOWEVER THE LATEST WRF INDICATES SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG THE FRONT              
PAST MIDNIGHT WHILE THE RUC BASICALLY DRY OVERNIGHT. THUS PLAN TO               
LEAVE IN A LOW CHANCE UP N OVERNIGHT ALTHO IFFY AFTER 02Z WHILE                 
GOING SLIGHT CHANCE TO JUST DRY PARTS OF NW NC WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT            
AND LESS INSTABILITY PERSIST. FOG QUITE A BIT LESS LAST NIGHT UNDER             
MARGINAL FOG STABILITY VALUES...AND WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT             
EXPECT MAINLY VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAINFALL TO SEE PATCHY             
COVERAGE. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...APPEARS NOT A               
LOT OF CHANGE NEEDED TO CURRENT MUGGY FORECAST LOWS.                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 725 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND TSTMS BEGINNING TO DIE OUT ACROSS OUR AREA AND                      
CONCENTRATE FURTHER NE. WILL STILL BE A SMALL THREAT THRU THE                   
NIGHT. A LITTLE MORE IFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER                   
WINDS AND HIGHER DWPTS. DEEPER MOISTR DROPPING DOWN AHEAD OF THE                
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND A GOOD CHC TO LIKLIHOOD               
OF TSTMS. SOME MVFR CU CIGS POSSIBLE TMRW...ESP BLF/LWB.                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 248 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN STRONG LOW LEVEL                      
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN EXTREME SW VA AND NW NC. THESE              
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NW NC                
PIEDMONT. LAPS AND MSAS SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE FROM THE NEAR THE PEAKS OF OTTER...NORTHEAST               
INTO NORTHERN VA...WHILE SATELLITE SHOWS BUILDING CUMULUS ACROSS THE            
APPALACHIANS. IT IS HARD TO PICK THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE              
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS            
WOULD BE FOR THE PIEDMONT AREAS AS ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING               
THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. I              
HAVE CLOSE TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THERE IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN               
KEPT 40 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. MODELS KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING                     
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE OLD SFC FRONT...SO I KEPT A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.                   
TUESDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE INDUCES A WAVE ALONG THE OLD             
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM BRING AN AREA OF                    
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTROMS INTO THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. I PUT A              
LIKELY CHANCE INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHWEST                    
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...AND A HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE.                               
STAYED CLOSE THE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WE WERE ALREADY                       
FORECASTING. THE MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY LOOKED A LITTLE              
COOL UNLESS WE HAVE A LOT OF SKY COVER...SO I RAISED HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5 DEGREES.                                                    
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING DAYS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF TRANSITIONS FOR              
THE MAIN CENTERS OF HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND            
CANADA. CURRENTLY THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS               
BEING DOMINATED BY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE COAST              
OF SOUTH CAROLINA. HOT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING               
CLOCKWISE AROUND THIS HIGH AND INTO OUR REGION. THE RESULT HAS BEEN             
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY ADDITIONAL                
FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR BETTER COVERAGE THAN THAT. HEADING INTO THE             
WEEKEND THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE WEST                
ALONG THE GULF COAST SHORE...AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN              
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. AS THIS IS TAKING PLACE...LOW PRESSURE                   
CENTERS IN CANADA WILL HAVE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO BOTH INTENSIFY                
OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND THUS A              
BETTER CHANCE ALLOWING A COLD FRONT OR COLD FRONTS TO ENTER OR MOVE             
THROUGH OUR REGION.                                                             
THE FIRST OF THESE FRONTS IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE             
AREA TOMORROW EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE BETTER COVERAGE OF             
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT            
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN AGAIN              
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTS PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA            
WILL MEAN THE BEST FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST                
NORTH CAROLINA WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA              
AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.                                                    
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE STALLED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION             
HEADING INTO FRIDAY...SO BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS OF STORMS WILL BE              
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF               
NORTH CAROLINA.                                                                 
AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE FRONT CURRENTLY IS INDICATED TO PUSH THROUGH            
THE REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
DEEPENS OVER QUEBEC AND HEADS INTO ONTARIO. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE              
HAS TENDED SLOWER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT BEHIND              
IT LOOKS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER...AND COOLER AIR...ASSUMING IT               
DOES IN FACT MAKE IT THROUGH THE AREA...FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT               
WEEK.                                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN              
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE MODELS SHOW              
THIS ORGANIZING SOMEWHAT AND PROPAGATING INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE IN              
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT TO THE                
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS...SO I EXPECT              
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTROMS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON            
AND INTO THIS EVENING. BEST CHC FOR A TSTM WOULD BE LYH AND DAN AT              
THIS POINT...BUT STILL LESS THAN A 50 PERCENT CHANCE...SO I ONLY                
INCLUDED VCNTY SHOWERS IN THE THE TAFS. DEPENDING UPON RAINFALL...WE            
COULD SEE IFR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP. I INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD                
TOWARD MORNING FOR LWB...BLF AND DAN. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF               
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTROMS FOR THE AREA TUESDAY.                                   
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RCS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1030 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY IN ORLANDO THREATENED...                               
...MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE RAIN TODAY...                                        
DATA FROM MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SHOWS MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 950             
MB (2500 FT) WITH DRYING OCCURRING ABOVE THAT. SFC HEATING                      
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS USED THIS LL MOISTURE TO GENERATE CUMULUS                
CLOUDS BUT DRIER AIR WILL GET MIXED DOWN AND SKIES WILL BECOME                  
MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES               
INLAND. PARTLY SUNNY INTERIOR.                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC40 SHOW VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS               
JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ASSOCD WITH STRONG UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL SPREAD            
WEST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER              
HIGH IS EXPECTED SO AMOUNT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND DRYING WILL             
LESSEN AS WELL.                                                                 
WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOS CONSIDERABLY AND              
DESPITE TEMPS REACHING MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...RAIN               
CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW. BEST CHANCE WILL BE THIS EVENING WITH THE             
COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED             
OVER LAKE COUNTY. AT BEST A NARROW BAND OF STORMS WILL RESULT WITH              
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BUT ATMOS               
NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.                              
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 102 AND 105 THIS AFTN WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL              
FOR AUG BUT THE DURATION WILL BE LONGER THAN USUAL BECAUSE THERE                
WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY RELIEF IN THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER             
OR HEAVY RAIN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS N OF THE CAPE WITH SE WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AT              
BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING. EXPECT E-SE FLOW TO CONTINUE INTO THE                  
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE                 
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. SEA                  
BREEZE COLLISION THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR WEST OF MCO/SFB WITH NARROW            
LINE OF RA AND ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY AT MCO (95 IN 1998) WILL LIKELY BE             
TIED IF NOT BROKEN. SOME OTHER RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (THAT WILL                
LIKELY STAND):                                                                  
DAYTONA BEACH   95 IN 1957                                                      
MELBOURNE       96 IN 1957                                                      
VERO BEACH      94 IN 1955                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KELLY/VOLKMER                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...                                                  
12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA             
WESTWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER VALLEY. 1021MB HIGH PRES OVER LOWER MI              
AND ANOTHER WEAK ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL TN. GOOD SHEAR ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY MAY FAVOR A FEW ISO SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY            
ISSUED MARINE WARNINGS THIS MORNING FOR GUSTY WINDS.                            
BUMPED UP WINDS OVER MUCH OF BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC TO AROUND 10 KTS.            
THICK CLOUD SHIELD AND GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS NOTED ON VIS                   
SAT...NAM 305K THETA SFC...ALONG WITH SATURATED 12Z KIAD SOUNDING.              
ACTIVITY MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG MD/PA BORDER THIS MORNING AND OVER                
SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. STILL                 
THINKING LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA ACROSS AREA AS 850MB BOUNDARY AND MID             
LEVEL VORT MAX MOVES EAST OVER AREA.                                            
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW CEILINGS AND SHRA WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.             
HAVE NOTED IFR CEILINGS AT BWI-MTN THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TREND            
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
.SHORT TERM..TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                               
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KY THROUGH CENTRAL VA TO               
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 06Z. LEANING TOWARD               
THE 00Z NAM AND 06Z RUC SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE GFS            
LOOKS TO STRONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TODAY. MSAS 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS              
INDICATE AN AREA OF SLOWLY FALLING SFC PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN OH               
AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN WV THROUGH 08Z...AND RADAR TRENDS BETWEEN               
07Z AND 08Z SHOW LIGHT RAIN FILLING IN ACROSS THESE AREAS. NAM AND              
RUC SHOW A VORTMAX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND NORTHERN MD BETWEEN            
12Z AND 18Z FOLLOWED BY A SECOND VORTMAX BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z                    
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ALONG MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS             
CENTRAL VA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN WEAK WAVES OF               
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TODAY THROUGH                
EARLY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS             
EVENING AND THEN DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT...AS SFC              
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN            
FROM THE NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80.            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                        
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF POPS TO THE FCST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT...WITH FORCING REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND FAIRLY OBVIOUS                  
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WORKING INTO OUR AREA. ON THURSDAY A WEAK S/W             
MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BUT THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING                  
APPEARS TO HAVE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL HOLD ON THE PATTERN...THEREFORE              
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS THURSDAY AND THE NEXT MENTION              
OF PRECIP WILL NOT BE TIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER S/W                            
APPROACHES...AND OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE.                 
MEANWHILE A SFC RIDGE REMAINS BLANKETED ACROSS THE REGION AND                   
OVERALL QPF SHOULD REMAIN MINOR IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES.                      
TEMPS IN THIS EXTENDED RANGE FCST SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO LATE            
AUGUST NORMALS...MAINLY IN THE MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND MID TO UPPER               
60S FOR LOWS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIGHT RAIN WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT BWI/MTN/DCA/IAD/MRB            
TODAY WITH VFR CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 04Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN               
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT LIFR VSBYS AND CIGS IN FOG AT CHO THROUGH                
11Z THIS MORNING...WHEN LIGHT RAIN WILL INITIATE SOME MIXING AND                
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR. AFTER 13Z MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL                      
PREDOMINATE IN LIGHT RAIN AND MIST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMITH                                                     
LONG TERM...JB                                                                  
MORNING UPDATE...GUYER                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SPAWNED A FEW                   
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN                 
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH                
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS                  
CONVERGENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE              
AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE OBS INDICATE TEMPS                
ALREADY IN THE 70-75 RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND VISIBLE                
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS DIURNAL CU STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN               
WI. NOT RULING OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EITHER AS RUC INDICATES             
850MB-700MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500               
J/KG.                                                                           
EXPECTING HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO REACH THE 75-80 DEGREE                      
RANGE...WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH KEEPS TEMPS DOWN              
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE              
SUPERIOR HAS ALSO CREATED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE               
NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MUNISING EASTWARD. MARINE OBS INDICATE 15 TO 25            
KT WINDS WITH WAVES AROUND 3 TO 5 FT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS MORNING. A              
MCV OVER ERN/CNTRL KY WILL MOVE EAST...AND AS IT REACHES THE                    
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OF THE MOUNTAINS...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY             
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. RUC HAS A GOOD            
HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE WHILE THE NAM AND GFS VERIFIED POORLY. BEST              
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE             
NORTH...AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS            
PLENTY OF ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (CAPE > 3500                       
J/KG)...WITH A THETA-E DIFFERENCE IN THE LOWEST 300 MB FAVORABLE FOR            
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN HIGH FREEZING            
LEVELS. SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S THIS            
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAT INDEX APPROACHING 105. SPS MENTIONING THE               
HEAT WILL BE CONTINUED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 301 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT EVOLVES INTO FAST WESTERLY FLOW(ZONAL) AND              
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THUS STRONGER S/W'S REMAIN NORTH OF              
THE AREA WITH ONLY A MINOR RIPPLE OR TWO ACROSS THE CWA.                        
AT THE SURFACE...LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATE WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER            
COASTAL PLAIN TODAY...PUSHING SOUTH. THEN COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN              
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY HEAD SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION LATER TODAY AND              
TONIGHT. SO FOR TODAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ALONG WITH                 
CONTINUED MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCE FOR                   
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.                                                           
THEN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...UNCLEAR/PROBLEMATIC AS TO                        
HOW FAR SOUTH/LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. GFS PUSHES           
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AS DRIER/STABLE AIR WORKS IN             
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM SLOWER. THUS TOUGH CALL ON                   
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT WILL              
CONTINUE POPS IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER LOOKS              
LIKE COUPLE WAVES WILL MOVE EAST ALONG BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.            
BOTH MAV/MET INDICATED LIKELY POPS...KEEP HIGH CHANCE FOR AS LOW                
CONFIDENCE. POPS TAPERING OFF TO LESSER CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO             
THURSDAY. HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF THURSDAY.                           
ON TEMPERATURES...ANOTHER HOT DAY IN STORE. HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER              
THE CENTURY MARK...100 TO 105...JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                   
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES              
NORTHERN SECTIONS WARMEST SOUTHERN SECTIONS. LOW TO MID 80S                     
REASONABLE FOR THURSDAY.                                                        
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS.                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH VSBY 4-6 MIS IN HAZE AND FOG. 10Z-14Z                
VSBY LOWERING TO MVFR OCNL IFR IN FOG...EXCEPT RWI AREA WHERE CIGS              
AND VSBY WILL LOWER TO LIFR. AFTER 14Z SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS               
WITH BASES AT 5 THOUSAND FEET/VSBY 5-6 MIS IN HAZE. SCATTERED                   
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DGS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1109 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF FA.                
H5 VORT SLIDING UP OH VLY IS DRIVING AREA OF PCPN AROUND CVG. VORT              
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN...BUT UNTIL THEN EXPECT NR                
CATEGORICAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. FARTHER NORTH DRY AIR                    
ALREADY STARTING TO WORK IN...WITH NW COUNTIES NOW IN THE                       
SUNSHINE. HAVE CREATED A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE PCPN AROUND                      
I-70...DRYING OUT THE NW.                                                       
LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.                                 
CLEZFPILN OUT.                                                                  
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 825 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
UPDATED TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCE SOUTH OF I-70 TO LIKELY. REST OF                
FORECAST OKAY RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR A LATE                  
MORNING UPDATE.                                                                 
SITES                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 634 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE             
OHIO RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES.              
A PATCH OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED IN SE INDIANA INTO KCVG.                
KILN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.                                          
WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS. HAVE LINGERED THREAT              
OF PRECIP FOR KCVG AND KLUK TODAY. NAM AND RUC SHOWING MID LEVEL                
WAVE AFFECTING ALMOST THROUGH 18Z. KDAY AND KCMH WILL SEE GRADUAL               
IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                  
CIGS WILL IMPROVE FARTHER SOUTH...JUST MORE SLOWLY.                             
TIPTON                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
DIFFUSE FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED ACRS CNTRL KY JUST TO SOUTH OF OHIO                 
RIVER. AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCD WITH WEAK MID LVL VORT EXITING                      
EASTERN FCST AREA ATTM. WEAK 300K ISENT LIFT AND MID LVL                        
DEFORMATION APPEAR TO BE AIDING THIS PCPN AREA AS WELL. FURTHER TO              
WEST...WDLY SCT -SHRA ACRS REMAINDER OF FCST AREA WITH ADDL SHRA                
ACRS SW INDIANA/WESTERN KY AND SRN ILLINOIS ASSOCD WITH SFC WAVE.               
SFC WAVE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG BNDRY TODAY MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA             
BY THIS EVNG. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO SHRA EXPECTED ACRS SRN                
1/2 FCST AREA THIS MRNG AS WAVE APPCHS. NICE LO LVL CONV AXIS                   
ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER THRU MIDDAY WITH HINTS OF A WEAK 850              
LLJ. AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH                  
ACRS SRN FCST AREA THRU MID AFTN. 90 KT UPR JET TRACKING ACRS LWR               
GRT LKS TODAY WITH MUCH OF FCST AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD. ALL OF                 
THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF                
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN THIS MRNG ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST                 
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LKLY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER                     
TODAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF                
FCST TODAY AS INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO SOUTH OF BNDRY ACRS                   
CNTRL/SRN KY.  SCT -SHRA WILL QUICKLY END NORTH OF I-70 THIS MRNG               
AS HI PRES OVER GRT LKS PUSHES DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTH OF                
I-70...PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN AS SFC WAVE PASSES TO              
SOUTH OF FCST AREA. SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVNG ACRS NRN                     
KY...BUT ENTIRE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING                  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS SRN FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN               
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS SFC HI BUILDS SOUTH. PTLY CLDY SKIES                 
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FRNTL BNDRY DROPS INTO TN VLY.                            
SFC HI ACRS REGION WED AND SHOULD SEE A PLEASANT DAY WITH GOOD                  
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG STRONG MID LVL CAP DVLPG              
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM. FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO                
LIFT BACK NORTH WED NIGHT AND APPCH FCST AREA THURS AS WARM FRNT.               
00Z NAM/GFS SOLNS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICK TO BRING BNDRY BACK NORTH.              
NAM WANTS TO SHOOT BNDRY ACRS FCST AREA THURS AFTN WHILE GFS HANGS              
IT BACK UNTIL ERLY FRI. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF TWO SOLNS AND                 
BRING A 20 POP BACK INTO FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN AS BNDRY APPCHS.              
LITTLE IN WAY OF FORCING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
SOME SEMBLANCE OF A MID LVL CAP...SO EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL                 
REMAIN DRY.                                                                     
TEMPS...KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER MAV GUID AS CLOUDS KEPT TEMPS DOWN                 
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMH AND KDAY. AFTN HIGHS                 
BACK INTO THE M80S FOR WED/THURS AND POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN THAT               
FRI AS FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO WARM HUMID AIRMASS. LOWS WILL BE                
PLEASANT NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW U50S IN RURAL               
LOCALES ACRS NRN FCST AREA.                                                     
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
ONLY CHANGE TO PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT 20 POPS INTO FCST AREA FOR FRI           
AFTN. OTHERWISE...APPEARS UPR LVL RIDGE TO EXPAND NORTH INTO                    
REGION FOR FRI/SAT BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN FOR                
LATTER PART OF EXTENDED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS                  
BELOW.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 117 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE               
OHIO RIVER. KILN RADAR SHOWS SCT -SHRA FROM KCMH DOWN I-71 TO                   
KCVG.                                                                           
ALOFT AT 500 MB WE ARE UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL MID LEVEL                   
WAVES WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BRINGING A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR -SHRA TO TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE                  
BEST THREAT BEFORE 12Z WHILE SOUTHERN SITES WILL LAST THROUGH 16Z.              
CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH 12Z TO AROUND 1 KFT. CIGS WILL MIX                
UP DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.                         
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
WRMFNT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS FA ON THU. FA IS WARM SECTORED UNTIL                  
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHEN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF GREAT                
LAKES. 06Z AND 12Z GFS ARE ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z GFS               
WITH THE FROPA. WILL GO WITH THE QUICKER TREND. FRONT IS                        
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG H5 S/W THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT                   
LAKES. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO              
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.                                           
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
825 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
UPDATED TO INCREASE PCPN CHANCE SOUTH OF I-70 TO LIKELY. REST OF                
FORECAST OKAY RIGHT NOW. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS FOR A LATE                  
MORNING UPDATE.                                                                 
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 634 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE             
OHIO RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES.              
A PATCH OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED IN SE INDIANA INTO KCVG.                
KILN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.                                          
WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS. HAVE LINGERED THREAT              
OF PRECIP FOR KCVG AND KLUK TODAY. NAM AND RUC SHOWING MID LEVEL                
WAVE AFFECTING ALMOST THROUGH 18Z. KDAY AND KCMH WILL SEE GRADUAL               
IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                  
CIGS WILL IMPROVE FARTHER SOUTH...JUST MORE SLOWLY.                             
TIPTON                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
DIFFUSE FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED ACRS CNTRL KY JUST TO SOUTH OF OHIO                 
RIVER. AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCD WITH WEAK MID LVL VORT EXITING                      
EASTERN FCST AREA ATTM. WEAK 300K ISENT LIFT AND MID LVL                        
DEFORMATION APPEAR TO BE AIDING THIS PCPN AREA AS WELL. FURTHER TO              
WEST...WDLY SCT -SHRA ACRS REMAINDER OF FCST AREA WITH ADDL SHRA                
ACRS SW INDIANA/WESTERN KY AND SRN ILLINOIS ASSOCD WITH SFC WAVE.               
SFC WAVE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG BNDRY TODAY MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA             
BY THIS EVNG. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO SHRA EXPECTED ACRS SRN                
1/2 FCST AREA THIS MRNG AS WAVE APPCHS. NICE LO LVL CONV AXIS                   
ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER THRU MIDDAY WITH HINTS OF A WEAK 850              
LLJ. AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH                  
ACRS SRN FCST AREA THRU MID AFTN. 90 KT UPR JET TRACKING ACRS LWR               
GRT LKS TODAY WITH MUCH OF FCST AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD. ALL OF                 
THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF                
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN THIS MRNG ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST                 
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LKLY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER                     
TODAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF                
FCST TODAY AS INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO SOUTH OF BNDRY ACRS                   
CNTRL/SRN KY.  SCT -SHRA WILL QUICKLY END NORTH OF I-70 THIS MRNG               
AS HI PRES OVER GRT LKS PUSHES DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTH OF                
I-70...PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN AS SFC WAVE PASSES TO              
SOUTH OF FCST AREA. SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVNG ACRS NRN                     
KY...BUT ENTIRE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING                  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS SRN FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN               
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS SFC HI BUILDS SOUTH. PTLY CLDY SKIES                 
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FRNTL BNDRY DROPS INTO TN VLY.                            
SFC HI ACRS REGION WED AND SHOULD SEE A PLEASANT DAY WITH GOOD                  
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG STRONG MID LVL CAP DVLPG              
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM. FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO                
LIFT BACK NORTH WED NIGHT AND APPCH FCST AREA THURS AS WARM FRNT.               
00Z NAM/GFS SOLNS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICK TO BRING BNDRY BACK NORTH.              
NAM WANTS TO SHOOT BNDRY ACRS FCST AREA THURS AFTN WHILE GFS HANGS              
IT BACK UNTIL ERLY FRI. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF TWO SOLNS AND                 
BRING A 20 POP BACK INTO FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN AS BNDRY APPCHS.              
LITTLE IN WAY OF FORCING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
SOME SEMBLANCE OF A MID LVL CAP...SO EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL                 
REMAIN DRY.                                                                     
TEMPS...KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER MAV GUID AS CLOUDS KEPT TEMPS DOWN                 
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMH AND KDAY. AFTN HIGHS                 
BACK INTO THE M80S FOR WED/THURS AND POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN THAT               
FRI AS FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO WARM HUMID AIRMASS. LOWS WILL BE                
PLEASANT NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW U50S IN RURAL               
LOCALES ACRS NRN FCST AREA.                                                     
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
ONLY CHANGE TO PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT 20 POPS INTO FCST AREA FOR FRI           
AFTN. OTHERWISE...APPEARS UPR LVL RIDGE TO EXPAND NORTH INTO                    
REGION FOR FRI/SAT BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN FOR                
LATTER PART OF EXTENDED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS                  
BELOW.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 117 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE               
OHIO RIVER. KILN RADAR SHOWS SCT -SHRA FROM KCMH DOWN I-71 TO                   
KCVG.                                                                           
ALOFT AT 500 MB WE ARE UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL MID LEVEL                   
WAVES WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BRINGING A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR -SHRA TO TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE                  
BEST THREAT BEFORE 12Z WHILE SOUTHERN SITES WILL LAST THROUGH 16Z.              
CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH 12Z TO AROUND 1 KFT. CIGS WILL MIX                
UP DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.                         
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
WRMFNT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS FA ON THU. FA IS WARM SECTORED UNTIL                  
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHEN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF GREAT                
LAKES. 06Z AND 12Z GFS ARE ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z GFS               
WITH THE FROPA. WILL GO WITH THE QUICKER TREND. FRONT IS                        
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG H5 S/W THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT                   
LAKES. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO              
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.                                           
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
634 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE             
OHIO RIVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW OVERCAST SKIES.              
A PATCH OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS HAVE FORMED IN SE INDIANA INTO KCVG.                
KILN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN.                                          
WILL MAKE ONLY A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT TAFS. HAVE LINGERED THREAT              
OF PRECIP FOR KCVG AND KLUK TODAY. NAM AND RUC SHOWING MID LEVEL                
WAVE AFFECTING ALMOST THROUGH 18Z. KDAY AND KCMH WILL SEE GRADUAL               
IMPROVEMENT TODAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                  
CIGS WILL IMPROVE FARTHER SOUTH...JUST MORE SLOWLY.                             
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 349 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
DIFFUSE FRNTL BNDRY LOCATED ACRS CNTRL KY JUST TO SOUTH OF OHIO                 
RIVER. AREA OF -SHRA ASSOCD WITH WEAK MID LVL VORT EXITING                      
EASTERN FCST AREA ATTM. WEAK 300K ISENT LIFT AND MID LVL                        
DEFORMATION APPEAR TO BE AIDING THIS PCPN AREA AS WELL. FURTHER TO              
WEST...WDLY SCT -SHRA ACRS REMAINDER OF FCST AREA WITH ADDL SHRA                
ACRS SW INDIANA/WESTERN KY AND SRN ILLINOIS ASSOCD WITH SFC WAVE.               
SFC WAVE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG BNDRY TODAY MOVING INTO WEST VIRGINIA             
BY THIS EVNG. MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO SHRA EXPECTED ACRS SRN                
1/2 FCST AREA THIS MRNG AS WAVE APPCHS. NICE LO LVL CONV AXIS                   
ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER THRU MIDDAY WITH HINTS OF A WEAK 850              
LLJ. AFOREMENTIONED MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH                  
ACRS SRN FCST AREA THRU MID AFTN. 90 KT UPR JET TRACKING ACRS LWR               
GRT LKS TODAY WITH MUCH OF FCST AREA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD. ALL OF                 
THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF                
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE PCPN THIS MRNG ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST                 
AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LKLY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER                     
TODAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER NORTH. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF                
FCST TODAY AS INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO SOUTH OF BNDRY ACRS                   
CNTRL/SRN KY.  SCT -SHRA WILL QUICKLY END NORTH OF I-70 THIS MRNG               
AS HI PRES OVER GRT LKS PUSHES DRIER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. SOUTH OF                
I-70...PCPN WILL END FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTN AS SFC WAVE PASSES TO              
SOUTH OF FCST AREA. SHRA MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVNG ACRS NRN                     
KY...BUT ENTIRE FCST AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING                  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACRS SRN FCST AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUN               
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AS SFC HI BUILDS SOUTH. PTLY CLDY SKIES                 
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS FRNTL BNDRY DROPS INTO TN VLY.                            
SFC HI ACRS REGION WED AND SHOULD SEE A PLEASANT DAY WITH GOOD                  
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG STRONG MID LVL CAP DVLPG              
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS TO A MINIMUM. FRNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO                
LIFT BACK NORTH WED NIGHT AND APPCH FCST AREA THURS AS WARM FRNT.               
00Z NAM/GFS SOLNS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICK TO BRING BNDRY BACK NORTH.              
NAM WANTS TO SHOOT BNDRY ACRS FCST AREA THURS AFTN WHILE GFS HANGS              
IT BACK UNTIL ERLY FRI. WILL TAKE A COMPROMISE OF TWO SOLNS AND                 
BRING A 20 POP BACK INTO FCST AREA FOR THURS AFTN AS BNDRY APPCHS.              
LITTLE IN WAY OF FORCING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
SOME SEMBLANCE OF A MID LVL CAP...SO EXPECT MANY LOCATIONS WILL                 
REMAIN DRY.                                                                     
TEMPS...KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER MAV GUID AS CLOUDS KEPT TEMPS DOWN                 
QUITE A BIT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KCMH AND KDAY. AFTN HIGHS                 
BACK INTO THE M80S FOR WED/THURS AND POTENTIALLY WARMER THAN THAT               
FRI AS FCST AREA GETS BACK INTO WARM HUMID AIRMASS. LOWS WILL BE                
PLEASANT NEXT TWO NIGHTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW U50S IN RURAL               
LOCALES ACRS NRN FCST AREA.                                                     
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
ONLY CHANGE TO PREV FCST WAS TO INSERT 20 POPS INTO FCST AREA FOR FRI           
AFTN. OTHERWISE...APPEARS UPR LVL RIDGE TO EXPAND NORTH INTO                    
REGION FOR FRI/SAT BEFORE STRONG COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN FOR                
LATTER PART OF EXTENDED. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS                  
BELOW.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 117 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE               
OHIO RIVER. KILN RADAR SHOWS SCT -SHRA FROM KCMH DOWN I-71 TO                   
KCVG.                                                                           
ALOFT AT 500 MB WE ARE UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. SEVERAL MID LEVEL                   
WAVES WILL MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BRINGING A GOOD                 
CHANCE FOR -SHRA TO TAF SITES. THE NORTHERN SITES WILL SEE THE                  
BEST THREAT BEFORE 12Z WHILE SOUTHERN SITES WILL LAST THROUGH 16Z.              
CIGS WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH 12Z TO AROUND 1 KFT. CIGS WILL MIX                
UP DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.                         
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005)                                             
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
WRMFNT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS FA ON THU. FA IS WARM SECTORED UNTIL                  
SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHEN COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF GREAT                
LAKES. 06Z AND 12Z GFS ARE ABOUT 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN THE 00Z GFS               
WITH THE FROPA. WILL GO WITH THE QUICKER TREND. FRONT IS                        
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG H5 S/W THAT SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT                   
LAKES. SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY INTO              
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.                                           
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1140 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
AS MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST SHORT               
WAVE LEAVES THE CWA I WILL DO AN UPDATE TO LOWER THE CAHNCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE                
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION BRINGING MORE RAIN THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                          
CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH SO I LOWERED HIGH                  
TEMPS TO ABOUT MID 70S FOR THIS AREA. THE NORTHERN HIGHS (WITH                  
SUNSHINE) MAY ACTUALLY BE HIGHER THAN THE SOUTHERN HIGHS (WITH                  
CLOUDS).                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 516 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
HAVE ADJUSTED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                  
THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA.                
STILL EXPECT SHOWER PROBABILITIES TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT EXIT SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE               
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES THE SAME TODAY BUT HAVE                
CONCERNS THESE COULD BE ONLY LOWER TO MID 70S IF COVERAGE OF                    
SHOWERS PERSISTS INTO MIDDAY.                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 312 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
HAVE MENTION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR                 
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER            
OHIO VALLEY. RUC AND NAM MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY LIMITED THIS                   
MORNING BUT THEN SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS KEPT            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THAT NAM AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE              
THE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD MOVING            
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. SO WENT WITH DRY              
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.                                          
FOR TEMPERATURES...FAVORED COOLER GFS MOS VALUES OVER WARMER NAM MOS            
AS THE GFS MOS VERIFIED BETTER YESTERDAY.                                       
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
LATEST GFS MODEL RUNS CONTINUES TO FOLLOW TREND OF EARLIER RUNS IN              
SHOWING THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE                 
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE INITIAL CHANCE WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF            
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY UPPER FLOW             
FRIDAY...COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AT               
LOW LEVELS. THIS CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE              
UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUNDAY. EXPECT              
SOME COOL RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE               
SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT GENERALLY P6SM OVC040-050 STRATOCUMULUS TODAY PER LATEST                 
UPWIND SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA. CONDITIONS CAN DETERIORATE TO 5SM            
-SHRA BR OVC020 IN THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WITH CUMULONIMBUS                
POSSIBLE WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING AFTERNOON               
HOURS. EXPECT STRATOCUMULUS TO BEGIN DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON            
AND TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
101 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL FIRE OUT ONE LAST UPDATE TO KEEP UP WITH COMPLEX WEATHER                   
SCENARIO.                                                                       
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A                 
CONVERGENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE WHICH EXTENDS FROM ICT TO NEAR HUT TO              
GBD. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT A LOOP OF VIS SATELLITE            
WHERE MORE ENHANCED CU HAVE PERSISTED. ON TOP OF THIS, A WEAK UPPER             
WAVE IS STILL LIFTING OUT OF OK AND IS AFFECTING AREA. RUC FORECAST             
SOUNDING SHOW QUITE A BIT CAPE BELOW 750MB WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE              
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. SO EXPANDED SHOWERS TO INCLUDE ALL               
AREAS THROUGH 00Z, BUT LEFT REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.                
&&                                                                              
LAWSON                                                                          
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005/                        
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
WILL PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN THAT HAS DEVELOP                
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.                                                       
EVEN THOUGH RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH, LOCATIONS NEAR HUT HAVE                  
PICKED CLOSE TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THIS ACTIVITY              
IS FAIRLY ISOLATED BUT HAS ALSO AFFECTED SOME OF THE WICHITA METRO.             
THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER WAVE THAT IS               
LIFTING OUT OF NW OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.             
SO WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH AROUND 18Z AND WILL             
ALSO LOWER TEMPS A BIT SINCE CLOUD COVER SHOULD STICK AROUND A BIT              
LONGER THAN EXPECTED.                                                           
LAWSON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT TUE AUG 16 2005/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TDY-TONIGHT                                                                     
FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK DUE TO LOW CLOUDS NOT GIVING UP, HOWEVER             
STRATUS BUILD DOWN EFFECTS COULD STILL CAUSE SOME REDUCED                       
VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING. TRYING TO CLEAR OUT THESE PESKY                
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE THE PAST FEW DAYS.               
MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE DECENT MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED                
BELOW AN INVERSION. COMBINE THIS WITH LIMITED MIXING AND THE LOW                
CLOUDS COULD BECOME RATHER BEARISH ONCE AGAIN, THUS MAKING TEMP                 
FORECASTING TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. FOG CHANCES/LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT            
WILL BE PREDICATED ON BEHAVIOR OF LOW CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AS LOW              
LEVELS REMAIN MOIST. WE WILL ONLY INSERT PATCHY FOG WORDING AT THIS             
JUNCTURE AND LET DAYSHIFT INVESTIGATE FURTHER.                                  
WED-THUR                                                                        
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR TEMPS THIS 48HR PERIOD, HOWEVER            
THURSDAY MIGHT BE A BIT WARMER THEN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO WE WILL               
RAISE MAXES A BIT FOR THAT DAY. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STILL             
ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA REGION ON WED WITH                  
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK. AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND SHEAR             
IS ACTUALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN               
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE IN WESTERN SECTIONS             
OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WED AFTERNOON.               
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY LATE WED             
AFTERNOON OR WED NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINTAIN A EASTWARD                
TREK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPLIES THE NECESSARY                
FUEL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER            
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
EXTENDED: FRI-MON                                                               
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, FRIDAY COULD BE THE             
LAST WARM DAY BEFORE COOLER CANADIAN AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR             
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIP GOING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD            
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS KS. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN            
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO STICK WITH SATURDAY TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.            
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    81  67  88  71 /  10  10  20  30                                
HUTCHINSON      82  66  88  69 /  10  10  20  30                                
NEWTON          81  67  87  70 /  10  10  20  30                                
ELDORADO        80  66  87  69 /  10  10  10  30                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  69  88  70 /  20  20  10  20                                
RUSSELL         84  65  90  68 /  10  10  30  30                                
GREAT BEND      84  65  89  69 /  10  10  30  30                                
SALINA          84  67  90  69 /  10  10  20  30                                
MCPHERSON       82  65  88  69 /  10  10  20  30                                
COFFEYVILLE     82  68  87  70 /  20  20  10  20                                
CHANUTE         79  68  86  71 /  10  20  10  30                                
IOLA            79  68  86  70 /  10  10  10  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAKUB/                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE                   
AREA...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE                  
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY AS A FEW                
SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AFFECT THE AREA. LATEST WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TO OUR                
NORTH QUICKLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO...WITH FAIRLY                 
QUICK WNW UPPER FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE NEXT FEATURES OF NOTE ARE AN            
UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA...AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO BRITISH                
COLUMBIA. THE UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY DRIVING THE NEVADA UPPER LOW               
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND HELP TO BRING A CHANCE              
OF PCPN TO OUR AREA LATE TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY...WHILE THE WESTERN             
CANADA SHORTWAVE WILL COALESCE INTO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW                
WHICH WILL TRACK EAST AND IMPACT OUR AREA TOWARD THE WEEKEND.                   
LATEST 88D IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LONELY SHOWERS MOVING INTO LAKE                  
MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY WHICH CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE CWFA AT THIS TIME.            
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FROM KSAW LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTED AROUND 500               
J/KG OF CAPE WAS AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL                 
CIN...SO IT APPEARS THAT SOME ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF            
THIS INSTABILITY. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A                     
THUNDERSTORM...COULD POP UP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY              
AND LIMITED MID-LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION SINK SOUTH               
INTO WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS               
EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO WORK IN...SO              
WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. AS WE LOOK AHEAD THROUGH               
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS INCREASING DISAGREEMENT THROUGH TIME               
BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND NAM...PRIMARILY STEMMING FROM HOW THEY                  
HANDLE THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL MOVE OUT OF WESTERN CANADA DURING               
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. PREFER THE GFS/S HANDLING OF THIS                  
SYSTEM...SINCE IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT...IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT             
WITH THE CANADIAN...UKMET AND ECMWF...AND IS GENERALLY BETTER BEYOND            
48 HOURS DUE TO ITS LARGER DOMAIN AND BETTER DATA ASSIMILATION. WILL            
USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THROUGH 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN TREND              
MUCH MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.                                              
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH              
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP BY            
LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING                
WILL ARRIVE BY LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF                
WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY...ALTHOUGH SOME MID            
AND UPPER CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY            
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY            
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST...WHERE SOME ELEVATED                    
INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A            
FEW SHRA/TSRA. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN              
OVER THE WEST FOR LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE LEAVING THE              
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL             
BEGIN TO WORK TOWARD THE CWFA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE            
SOME MORE MEANINGFUL FORCING FOR PCPN AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT.             
IN ADDITION...EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET TO INCREASE                
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE 925-700MB GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A LOOK AT THE             
850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E PROGS SUGGESTS DECENT ELEVATED                   
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWFA AS WE                
HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL MARCH THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA                  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE             
CWFA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL                      
TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD WORK TO KEEP SOME SHRA/TSRA GOING ACROSS THE              
AREA.                                                                           
CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL SUBSIDENCE             
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING WORK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE INITIAL                     
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT THINGS TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A DRY             
PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND THE MORE                      
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA              
BORDER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH A DRY                   
FORECAST FOR PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE MAIN COLD                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER LOW             
WORK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL                 
BLANKET THE CWFA WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                   
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.                                   
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR                 
HANDLING OF THINGS DURING THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE                             
FORECAST...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ENSEMBLE                 
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR                         
DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS...AND SHOW A FAIRLY LIMITED AMOUNT OF                
SPREAD THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUGGESTING THAT A BLEND OF THE                      
OPERATIONAL RUNS IS PROBABLY THE MOST SENSIBLE THING TO DO AT THIS              
POINT.                                                                          
A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LOW/SHORT WAVE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF                    
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HELPING TO DRAG A COLD               
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT FARTHER            
SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET...WITH             
THE CANADIAN OFFERING A COMPROMISE. REGARDLESS OF THE                           
SPECIFICS...THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE FRONT IS VERY SIMILAR AMONGST             
THE MODELS...WITH CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH                    
SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE             
DAY. IF THE UPPER LOW IS FARTHER SOUTH...THERE COULD BE SOME POST               
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL NOT             
WORRY ABOUT THAT AT THIS POINT.                                                 
THE GFS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET BRING SHORTWAVE RIDGING INTO THE AREA            
QUICKLY ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF TENDS TO KEEP MORE UPPER LEVEL              
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF IS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN             
BUILDING IN LOW LEVEL RIDGING...AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE               
SHOWS THINGS DRYING OUT CONSIDERABLY. WE SHOULD SEE THINGS COOL OFF             
AND DRY OUT NICELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RIDGING PERSISTS              
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING TO SETUP              
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE GFS MANAGES TO BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OUT OF             
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND                   
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH BOTH                   
SOLUTIONS SHEAR IT OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT HEADS EAST...AND NEITHER               
WOULD SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF IT.             
AT THIS POINT...WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH STILL WELL TO THE                    
WEST...AND THE LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY STILL OVER THE PLAINS...WILL NOT            
MENTION ANY PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE AND KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                         
THROUGH TONIGHT: AS EXPECTED... NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON               
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN               
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE                 
CONVERGENCE AXIS & INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL               
DROP INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS                        
NECESSITATING LIKELY POPS THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND            
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE INITIALLY VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE IMPROVES             
SOMEWHAT... AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LOW            
LEVEL DRYING FROM THE INCREASING WSW WINDS COULD EXACERBATE                     
DOWNDRAFTS. THEN WITH THE MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER NOW CROSSING KY            
ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER               
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE NOTED ON THE 345K SURFACE...            
WILL EXTEND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN & NORTHEAST             
CWA OVERNIGHT. LOWS 71-75.                                                      
WED THROUGH FRI: WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH MIDDAY              
WED WITH LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE... TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS            
THE FRONT DROPS TO OUR SOUTH & MORE STABLE AIR WORKS INTO THE NORTH             
WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT 850 MB FLOW. HIGHS 83-90 WED... BUT                 
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THESE NUMBERS AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON HOW              
MUCH IF ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL               
LIKELY HANG UP ALONG COASTAL NC ACROSS SC THU AS THE WEAK HIGH                  
PRESSURE AREA NOSES IN FROM THE NORTH... & WILL LEAVE JUST LOW                  
CHANCE POPS THU MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES.             
HIGHS 83-88. FORECAST GROWS MORE UNCERTAIN BY FRI WITH THE GFS                  
HANGING ONTO MUCH MORE SURFACE RIDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES. TEND            
TO PREFER THE MILDER NAM SOLUTION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATING            
AND A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES TENDING TO               
SHOVE THE PARENT HIGH OUT TO SEA... SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS'S               
FEEDBACK CONTAMINATION CAUSES THIS WAVE TO LOSE DEFINITION THUS                 
KEEPING THE PARENT HIGH IN PLACE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS AND HIGHS IN            
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                    
MID LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO DOMINATE THE REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH              
SAT. THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH INDICATE THE FRONT WELL TO OUR SOUTH             
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TRYING TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH...             
HOWEVER SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERZEALOUS WITH ITS COOL                   
NOSE... WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR MAXES... 86-91. THEN              
SUN THROUGH MON... THE ANOMALOUS UPPER VORTEX TRACKING ACROSS                   
SOUTHEAST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH (ACCORDING TO THE                
ECMWF/GFS) TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION... AND A                   
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE IT.                    
THEREFORE WILL RESUME POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPS A             
BIT ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THEN HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK NEAR OR A LITTLE            
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITH EXPECTATIONS OF COPIOUS CLOUD COVER. TUE               
FORECAST IS A WILD CARD WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE            
FRONT PUSHES... WITH ONLY A 1020 MB HIGH PUSHING SOUTHWESTWARD                  
BEHIND IT. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH THE FRONT              
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP. WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTAL PASSAGES SO RARE             
IN NC THIS TIME OF YEAR... WILL HOLD THE FRONT ACROSS NC AND                    
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS TUE... PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING... AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH & SOUTHEAST WHERE               
ANY LEE DRYING EFFECTS FROM WESTERLY 850 MB WINDS WILL BE LESSENED.             
HIGHS TUE 85-89.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WILL MOVE             
EAST INTO THE AREA...REACHING THE TRIAD BETWEEN 20 AND 22Z. THE                 
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND TAFS WILL MENTION A                
TEMPO WITH IFR VIS/MVFR CIGS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. RUC MODEL             
SHOWS UPPER DIVERGENCE PERSISTING AND A VORTICITY CENTER MOVING EAST            
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SO STORMS              
WILL LIKELY AFFECT RDU AND RWI BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. FAY MAY SEE AN              
ISOLATED STORM BUT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST TO THE NORTH. AREAS                
THAT RECEIVE RAIN ARE LIKELY TO HAVE IFR FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT             
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO            
THE AREA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...DGS                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PRESSURE CENTERED             
JUST EAST OF KBIL...WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                   
MIDWEST. SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED GENERALLY ALONG THE ND/SD              
BORDER..WITH SOME CONVECTION FIRING UP NORTH AND EAST OF CWFA. WV               
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWING POTENT SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH                
WYOMING...WHICH WILL ACT AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THIS                 
EVENING. THE CONCERN WILL BE HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL GET AND                 
WHERE. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE                    
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PTNS OF CWFA WHERE SFC                         
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT REMAINS SITUATED. MODELS INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT             
OF SHEAR...PLENTY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST               
SOUTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY LOOKING GOOD...WITH MODELS INDICATING                 
1000+ J/KG...WHICH MAY EVEN BE A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE. DECIDED TO              
GO WITH SEVERE WORDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3                    
COUNTIES OF CWFA...THOUGH SVR WX IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION               
ACROSS REMAINDER OF NE WYO AND WESTERN SD.  THE NEXT CONCERN IS                 
RAINFALL. LATEST RUC AND ETA INDICATING SLOW MOVING                             
STORMS...ESPECIALLY RIGHT MOVERS... WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED               
HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. THIS EVENING UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP            
DOWN FROM NORTHERN ALBERTA AND STARTS PUSHING EASTWARD NORTH OF THE             
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE              
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE                   
FORECAST GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER            
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS NEXT WAVE COMES SWINGING THROUGH THE                
CWFA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME               
PUSHING THROUGH CWFA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CONTRAST IN                       
TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WET DAY               
ACROSS CWFA. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE REASONABLY MILD WITH SOME                     
LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.                                             
EXTENDED...AFTER UPPER TROF EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGE               
OVER THE WEST WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS...BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND               
WARM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AS RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA              
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAY SEE A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY                   
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE                
PACIFIC NW. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FOR               
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS WY AND            
EASTERN MT TONIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS              
ACROSS MOST TWEB ROUTES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY TWEB            
ROUTES 259...260...AND 285. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SVR WITH              
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS               
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN             
VFR THRU TONIGHT AT KGCC AND KRAP.                                              
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd