NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
245 PM MST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW            
TO MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO            
AROUND 3000 FEET BY SATURDAY WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS             
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE NORTH SATURDAY.               
VERY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM SATURDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS             
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD SUNDAY...WITH                  
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MUCH OF THE                
COMING WEEK.                                                                    
.DISCUSSION...DEEP AND COLD TROUGH WITH ABUNDANT DYNAMICS AND                   
LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND                   
SATURDAY. CURRENT OBS AND RUC DATA INDICATE A SYSTEM A BIT DEEPER               
AND SLOWER THAN THE 12Z AVN...AND THIS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. WILL              
EXTEND SNOW ADVISORIES INTO SATURDAY...AND WILL ADD A FEW MORE ZONES            
TO THE COVERAGE. WILL KEEP THE AMOUNTS THE SAME...AS MOISTURE LEVELS            
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE TO 3500            
FEET OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO               
FALL TO 3000 FEET ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST             
TONIGHT...AND WILL APPROACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO               
THE NORTH SATURDAY...WITH A SECONDARY FRONT AND VORTICITY MAXIMA                
MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER            
MUCH OF AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS              
WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DRY OUT THE               
AIRMASS AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE TO LAST INTO           
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A FEW WEAKER SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE                  
NORTH. WILL STICK WITH FAIR SKIES...AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PETERSON.                                   
.FGZ...SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT ZONES 4/5/6/7/8/37/38                              
       SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY ZONES 15/16/18               
       SNOW ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SATURDAY ZONES               
       10/11/17/39.                                                             
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA                
CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP             
                 TON SAT   SUN     MON        TON SAT   SUN     MON             
FLAGSTAFF        021/027 015/034 002/043      100 080 020 000 000 000           
WINSLOW          027/038 019/040 014/049      050 050 020 000 000 000           
PRESCOTT         026/036 018/045 015/054      090 050 000 000 000 000           
PAGE             030/036 024/038 021/047      080 040 000 000 000 000           
WINDOW ROCK      018/027 005/032 004/041      090 080 030 000 000 000           
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
                  TEMPERATURES LO/HI                                            
                  TON SAT     SUN       MON                                     
CANYON DE CHELLY  024/026   011/031   010/040                                   
COTTONWOOD        031/043   023/052   020/061                                   
GRAND CANYON      023/031   017/038   004/047                                   
GREER             021/028   015/035   002/044                                   
HEBER             022/033   016/040   003/049                                   
JACOB LAKE        022/024   016/031   003/040                                   
NAVAJO N.M.       024/022   011/027   010/036                                   
PAYSON            025/039   017/048   014/057                                   
SEDONA            033/041   025/050   022/059                                   
SELIGMAN          020/037   012/046   009/055                                   
SHOW LOW          027/030   021/037   008/046                                   
ST. JOHNS         025/039   017/041   012/050                                   
WUPATKI N.M.      031/039   023/041   018/050                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
925 AM PST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
UPDATED MORNING ZONES TO FRESHEN WORDING. LATEST RUC SHOWING                    
DECREASING PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK           
EAST SO HAVE ALLOWED WARNING TO EXPIRE. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND NW            
TO N FLOW OVER CWA TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORCAL. UPSTREAM           
BAROCLINIC CIRRUS APPROACHING WEST COAST AND PROGGED TO BEGIN                   
INVADING THE CWA LATER TODAY. MODELS SPREAD SOME PRECIP NEAR THE                
NORTHERN BORDER TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY                 
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY PRECIP THAT               
OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE...CURRENTLY NEAR 150W...                    
PROGRESSES INLAND OVER THE WEST. CYCLOGENESIS ON SUNDAY BETWEEN 40N-            
50N AND 130W-140W AS LONG WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE DATELINE PROGRESSES           
TO AROUND 145W. SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO B.C. DRAGGING FRONT ACROSS              
NORCAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                     
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
PCH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
330 AM PST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS HAS THE UPPER TROF AXIS              
OVER THE NORTH BAY AREA. CURRENT DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES SHOWS THE                 
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN FROM SOUTH OF PASO ROBLES NORTHEAST TO MADERA              
WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP EXTENDING TO FRESNO. SURFACE ANALYSIS                
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING SFO AND TIMED TO HIT THE             
CWFA NEAR 5 AM. WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO                 
EXPECT MORNING RAIN SPREADING SOUTH TO BAKERSFIELD AND DIMINISHING BY           
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                            
AS STATED ABOVE...THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE COLD FRONT              
TIMED TO REACH THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY 10 AM AND SPREAD INTO               
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 4 PM THIS LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RUC                    
ANALYSIS HAS A +150KT JET DRIVING DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF.            
THIS JET IS PROVIDING THE SUPPORT NEEDED TO PUSH THIS TROF ALONG                
AND IS TIMED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TODAY. BEST              
DYNAMICS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA THIS MORNING AND DIMINISHING                    
TROUGH OUT THE DAY. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WINTER                  
STORM WARNING ABOVE 5000 FEET WITH SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3000 FEET.             
AFTER 10 AM...THE TROF AXIS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE                
CWFA WITH MUCH OF THE DISTRICT COMING INTO THE AREA OF NVA. AT THAT             
TIME...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH BE MORE ALIGN WITH THE KERN COUNTY                 
MOUNTAINS. WILL NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE KERN           
COUNTY MOUNTAINS BUT...WITH STRONG UP SLOPE FLOW...ISOLATED 2 TO 5              
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL             
ALSO BE NEAR 4000 FEET TODAY. WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
AS LIGHT SNOW AND WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR TODAY FOR TRAVEL OVER HWY              
58 AND INTERSTATE 5.                                                            
WITH THE TIMING THE JET MAX AND COLD FRONT TO REACH THE KERN AREA BY            
MIDDAY...WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING. CONDITIONS              
WILL LINE UP TO FOR VERY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS LATER TODAY AND                  
EARLY EVENING BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS. THE FAST             
MOVING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS               
THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AFTER SUNSET.            
BY SATURDAY MORNING...CLEARING WILL ALLOW THE COLD AIR THAT                     
FILTERED INTO THE DISTRICT TODAY TO FORM FROST AROUND DAYBREAK.                 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATER PERIODS OF SUNDAY AND              
MONDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS              
BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.                                     
MOLINA                                                                          
.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA                       
       NEVADA...FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.                          
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY                        
       MOUNTAINS.                                                               
    ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
850 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE: AT 00Z, THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF               
ABY SW TO JUST E OF PFN. THE BOUNDARY IS MAKING VERY SLOW EWD                   
PROGRESS. SLOW ENOUGH IN FACT THAT WE MAY NEED TO WORRY ABOUT FOG               
ACROSS SOME OF OUR ERN ZONES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT. THE                  
LATEST RUC KEEPS THE 65 DEG ISODROTHOTHERM W OF TLH THROUGH 12Z. THE            
18Z ETA IS JUST A BIT FASTER. LOW CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY SET IN HERE             
AT TLH. WILL LIKELY RAISE MIN TEMP ACROSS OUR SE ZONES AS WELL.                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SW GA.                
HOPEFULLY, WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS AFTER 02Z.                           
MARINE: NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED OTHER THAN REMOVAL OF SHOWERS.                 
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 PM EDT FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE OVERHEAD. MAIN             
FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENT OF LOW CLDS               
AND TEMPERATURES.                                                               
00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS INVERSION AROUND 900MB...WITH PROFILE UNDER              
INVERSION SOMEWHAT MOIST. THIS ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS                 
CAUSING LOW CLDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST AND NRN FA. WESTERN FA              
STAYING CLEAR DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SOME POSSIBLE            
MIXING. RUC II SHOWS RH > 80 PERCENT AT 950>850MB OVER THE EASTERN              
AND NRN FA WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO WHERE LOW CLDS ARE CURRENTLY.               
RUC REALLY DOES NOT MOVE OUT MUCH MOISTURE UNTIL LATE WHEN EASTERN              
AREA SEES STRONGER S-SWLY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL                  
THEREFORE GO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FROM FROM L'ANSE AND EAST...AND              
KEEP WESTERN FA PTLY CLDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL ALSO BUMP UP MINS               
SEVERAL DEGREES FOR AREAS WITH CLDS. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FCST              
LOOKS FINE SO NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
MRD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM CLOUDS/TEMPS TONIGHT/SAT TO PCPN                  
TIMING/COVERAGE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.                                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF INTO THE WRN CONUS AND             
RDGING TOWARD THE PLAINS WITH STRONGEST UPR LVL JET AND SHRTWV                  
ENERGY WAS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE SRN CA/AZ. FARTHER EAST...A POTENT            
SHRTWV OVER NRN OHIO...PRODUCING SWATH OF SNOW OVER SRN LWR MI...               
WAS RIDING ENE ATOP PERSISTENT SE CONUS RDG. A MOISTURE STARVED                 
SHRTWV UPSTREAM OVER NE MO WAS SUPPORTING ONLY A BAND OF CLOUDS. AT             
THE SFC...A WEAK RDG EXTENDED TOWARD UPR MI FROM HI PRES OVER                   
ONTARIO. IR LOOP SHOWED EDGE OF ENHANCED CLD BAND FROM LWR MI STORM             
JUST BRUSHING SE PORTION OF CWA. VIS LOOP INDICATED PERSISTENT PATCH            
OF SC OVER CNTRL UPR MI AS LLVL MOISTURE REMAINED TRAPPED BLO 900 MB            
INVERSION. CLOUDS WERE THIN ENOUGH SO THAT CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE AND             
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS BROUGHT MORE SUNNY BREAKS.                                 
TONIGHT...AS THE RDG SLIDES TO THE EAST...EXPECT LLVL WAA ADVECTION             
AND LLVL ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE AFTER 06Z WITH POSSIBILITY OF              
SOME LO CLD FORMATION LATE. HOWEVER WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS OVER WI             
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S F...WIDESPREAD OVC NOT EXPECTED.                   
LOW TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABV GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE WITH DECENT               
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.                                                   
SATURDAY...WHILE ETA SHOWS THIN MOIST LYR PERSISTING BLO 925 MB                 
INVERSION...WL STILL MAINTAIN MORE OPTIMISTIC PTSUNNY                           
WORDING...GIVEN VERY THIN NATURE OF ANY CLOUDS. INCREASED MIXING AND            
SOME DOWNSLOPE WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS MAY ALSO HELP SUPPRESS LO            
CLDS. ACCORDINGLY...KEPT TEMPS NEAR HIGHER MAV VALUES.                          
SATURDAY NIGHT...LLVL MOISTURE SHOULD THICKEN WITH 45 KT LLVL JET               
DEVELOPING...PER ETA. ETA/AVN BOTH SHOW RELATIVELY DRY LYR ABV MOIST            
LLVL SO THAT ANY PCPN WOULD FALL AS -DZ OR -FZDZ. SINCE MDL TREND               
HAS BEEN TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE TROF FROM THE PLAINS...AND 18Z              
ETA HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE MOISTENING...WL KEEP DRY FCST GOING.            
WAA SHOULD KEEP MOST TEMPS ABV FREEZING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS                
AFTER DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING.                                              
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH              
MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LIKELY                
PCPN CHANCES. FCST SNDGS SHOW RELATIVELY DEEP WRM BNDRY LYR                     
WITH 1000-850 THICKNESS REMAINING WELL ABV 1305M. WL NOT ADD TIMING             
FOR NOW GIVEN MDL INCONSISTENCY...BUT EXPECT RAIN MAY BE DELAYED TIL            
MAINLY AFTERNOON GIVEN SLOWING TREND. WHILE ETA/AVN SHOW LIFT AND               
850-500 MOISTURE QUICKLY DEPARTING BY AROUND 21Z WEST AND 00Z                   
CENTRAL...WL ALSO KEEP CHANCES INTO THE EVENING AND KEEP LIKELY                 
WORDING FOR THE ERN CWA.                                                        
MONDAY...LITTLE MOISTURE LEFTOVER ON MONDAY AS UKMET/AVN SUGGEST NRN            
STREAM TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND SRN STREAM SYSTEM WL ALSO              
SLIDE EAST. BOTH...HOWEVER...SHOW A WEAK SHEARED SHRTWV THAT WOULD              
SLIDE INTO THE WRN LAKES FROM THE NW AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES.            
DAYS 4-7...WHILE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH MDLS HAS BEEN                      
POOR...UKMET/MRF/AVN HAVE CONVERGED A BIT IN SUGGESTING SHRTWV                  
RDGING TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV AND SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVING             
MID-WEEK. UKMET IS MUCH DEEPER WITH SHRTWV INTO THE WRN LAKES BY WED            
WHILE MRF/AVN ADVERTISES A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH ONLY A QUICK                 
INTRUSION OF SHALLOW COLD AIR WITH MORE LIMITED SNOW OR LES                     
POTENTIAL. MRF/UKMET/ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST MID LVL RDGING AGAIN BY LATE            
WEEK. WITH UPPER LVL PATTERN IN TRANSITION PHASE...HAVE PLENTY OF               
UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH ANY                  
SHRTWVS AFFECTING UPR MI BY WED/FRI. SO...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO            
GOING FCST.                                                                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
340 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN                
GREAT LAKES WITH POTENT VORT MAX OVER INDIANA/OHIO. UPSTREAM RIDGE              
OVER THE PLAINS WITH TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. TWO DISTINCT PIECES            
OF ENERGY NOTED...ONE OVER WASHINGTON/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ONE OVER             
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OVER OHIO...WITH RIDGE                
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI FROM HIGH OVER ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS/METARS            
SHOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE AREA...MAINLY RAIN OVER THE                
EASTERN CWA AND SNOW OVER WESTERN CWA.                                          
OF FIRST CONCERN IS PRECIP WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. BACK EDGE OVER            
NORTHERN INDIANA AND LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE RUC/ETA DEPICT 295/300K              
ISENTROPIC DECENT AND DRYING. LIFT CONTINUES VERY EARLY THIS EVENING            
WITH 2-3G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY. WILL WAIT TO SEE LATEST RADAR TRENDS            
BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE...BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO END THIS EVENING...SNOW             
NORTH/MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH. WITH CONTINUED ACCUMULATING SNOW...            
WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING. DEEP                    
MOISTURE DECREASES TONIGHT WITH DRYING AT 500/700MB NOTED ON                    
PROFILES AND PLAN FIELDS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BUT             
NOT SURE HOW MANY WILL CONTINUE ONCE THE SUN SETS. DESPITE                      
SUBSIDENCE/MID-LEVEL DRYING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 925/850MB               
LINGERS AS IT HAS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. EXPECT CLOUDS TO STICK AROUND            
TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT TOMORROW.                                             
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST IN THE MORNING...WITH RETURN FLOW                      
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO 2C                  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AT 00Z. CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN                  
ADDITION TO MIXING FROM INSOLATION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING                      
SUNSHINE...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY OVER WESTERN                          
WISCONSIN/IOWA. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM LOOK TO HOLD OFF               
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE WORDING OF BECOMING MOSTLY             
SUNNY. WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...WITH BROAD SURFACE                      
LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN STREAM                    
SHORTWAVE BECOMES DOMINATE WITH SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE                
LOWER MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. WEAKER PVA/DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH.            
AVN HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST TWO            
RUNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600MB 12Z                      
SUNDAY...WITH PROFILES SATURATING BY 00Z THAT EVENING. WILL BUMP                
BACK TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE              
IT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WITH TREND MENTIONED IN THE NEXT                  
PARAGRAPH...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST CWA              
INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND WEAK QVECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH LOWER                 
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
00Z AND 12Z AVN RUNS AS WELL AS THE MRF/ETA-XX HAVE TRENDED AWAY                
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY/TUESDAY. THESE                  
MODELS KEEP THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OUT OF PHASE AND                  
EMPHASIZE THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. MAJORITY OF MRF ENSEMBLE                  
MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...BUT 12Z/13 ECMWF               
AND 00Z/14 CANADIAN STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A STRONGER                  
PHASED LOW THAT CUTS OFF OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL TEND                
TOWARD THE OPEN SOLUTION GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE 12Z ETA. ENSEMBLE                
MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DROPPING ANOTHER TROUGH ON                     
THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY.                                 
THANKS TO GRR AND APX FOR COORDINATION.                                         
.DTX...WINTER WX ADVISORY...THIS EVENING...MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062.          
JHB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1135 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                     
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY AS IS. WILL TWEAK WORDING FOR A LITTLE                   
STRONGER MIX IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST                     
OBSERVATION TRENDS...RUC 1000 TO 850 MB THICKNESSES WHERE 1305 M                
STILL CRUDELY LINES UP WITH RAIN VERSUS SNOW...AND IS PROGGED TO                
SUPPRESS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                       
DYNAMIC COOLING AND SOME RESIDUAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING PLAYING A PART            
IN CHANGE OF RAIN TO SNOW OR MIX...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY.               
.DTX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR                 
DWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1112 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                     
KGRR-88D SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. AS             
EXPECTED THERE IS A SHARP NRN EDGE TO THE PCPN EXTENDING FROM BIV TO            
JUST SOUTH OF BIG RAPIDS. THIS LINES UP VERY NICELY WITH                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FORECASTS. MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY                
TURNED OVER TO SNOW AS THE STRONGEST REFLECTIVITIES MOVE NORTH FROM             
INDIANA INTO THE CWA. AZO HAS ALREADY PICKED UP AN INCH. CURRENT                
ADVISORY AREA LOOKS GOOD ATTM AND WILL BE CONTINUED. WILL BOOST                 
ACCUMS A TAD DUE TO THE QUICKER TURNOVER TO SNOW AND ADD CALHOUN TO             
THE ADVISORY AREA AS THE NW CORNER OF THE COUNTY IS CURRENTLY UNDER             
THE HEAVIER SNOW AREA. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE 1000-850                
1300M THICKNESS LINE SINKING SOUTH THRU THE AFTERNOON. IR LOOP SHOWS            
THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE            
NORTH WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A LONG-LIVED EVENT. WILL             
LOWER TEMPS A TAD TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                                    
93                                                                              
.GRR...SNOW ADVISORY MIZ051-052-057>059-064>066-071>073 THIS                    
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
205 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
LOW STATUS DECK SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN                 
KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS HAVE ALREADY            
DEVELOPED ALONG THE PLATEAU DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER HIGHER                   
TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS: WHEN LOW CLOUD DECK DEPARTS OVERNIGHT.                     
LONGER TERM CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON                  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                                                         
LATEST 20/40 RUC AND MESOETA SHOWING 90/92H RH FIELDS SLOWLY DRYING             
OUT DURING THE EVENING AS A STRONGER S/SW FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL MAKE              
LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WESTERN ZONES DUE TO AMOUNT OF CLOUD             
COVER LEFT...BUT WILL WORD THE REST OF THE AREA WITH "BECOMING CLEAR            
LATE IN THE EVENING.                                                            
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH 15 TO 20 MPH                           
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LIKELY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS             
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE               
SCALE FEATURES AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN             
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                                                      
INITIAL WARM AIR/THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY                            
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOST LIKELY BY SUNSET ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES. MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION WILL GENERATE LIGHT RAIN               
OVER MOST OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...ONLY AREA OF               
CONCERN IN THE FAR NW AS MAIN DYNAMICS HOLDS OUT UNTIL THE MAIN                 
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
BELIEVE TOO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP...LIKE THE PREVIOUS             
SYSTEM.                                                                         
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL LIKELY                
GENERATE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR SE                 
ZONES. NCEP DISCUSSION (DAY 2) IS EXPECTING NEARLY 3-4 INCHES IN                
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. THIS AREA HAS HAD THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST            
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING            
FROM THIS EVENT...HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING (ESPECIALLY FAR SE                  
ZONES)!!! SECOND WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT SUNDAY                     
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FAR SE ZONES.                
ALSO THICKNESS VALUES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR            
FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION...EVEN AS THE EVENT WINDS DOWN.                
ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.                                                         
FCSTID = 25/JLT                                                                 
SGF   35  55  40  47 /   0  20  70  50                                          
JLN   36  55  42  48 /   0  20  60  50                                          
UNO   36  54  41  48 /   0  20  70  70                                          
VIH   35  55  40  47 /   0  20  70  50                                          
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
400 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
DEFORMATION/TROWAL TYPE RAIN/SNOW SHOULD BE PULLING OUT OF THE CWA              
LTR THIS MRNG AS VORT CNTR OVR N CNTRL AR MOVS INTO SRN IN BY 18Z               
FRI AND SFC LOW OVR WRN KY TN MOVS INTO WRN OH.  10Z RUC HAS 700-600            
MB THETA E RDG EXTDG FM ERN KY W THRU SRN IN SRN IL AND INTO SERN               
MO.  LGT SNOW BEING REPORTED IN UIN WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO                    
MODERATE SNOW JUST N AND NE OF STL WITH LWR FREEZING LVLS.  WL                  
MENTION UP TO ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION N OF STL...SHOULD BE MAINLY              
ON GRASSY AREAS AND ON ELEVATED SFCS WITH WRM GROUND                            
TEMPS...ALTHOUGH ROADS COULD BE SLICK WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATION THIS             
MRNG BFR SNOW ENDS AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE LWR 40S.  ANY LEFTOVR                
PCPN LT THIS MRNG IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE AS MOISTURE BCMS MORE                  
SHALLLOW WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FM W TO E THIS AFTN.  PCPN                  
SHOULD RETURN ON SAT NGT INTO SUN AS ETA DEPICTS STG 850 MB THETA E             
ADVCTN AND MOISTURE CNVG OVR CNTRL AND SRN MO ON NOSE OF STG SWLY               
LLJ AHD OF NEXT TROF.  WITH 1000-700 MB THICKNESS FCST BY ETA/AVN               
WELL ABV 2840 M OVR ENTR CWA LOOKS TO BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT...WITH               
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAA SUN NGT JUST AFTR PCPN MOVES OUT OF AREA.            
.STL...NONE                                                                     
GKS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
950 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS MAINLY CLOUD TRENDS AND                  
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
IFR CIGS WHICH HAVE SPREAD INTO RRV IN MOIST LOW LEVEL SSE FLOW                 
DEPICTED FARLY WELL BY 925MB RH FIELDS FROM RUC. LAYER ONLY                     
GRADUALLY DRIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH SSE FLOW CONTINUING ALONG               
WITH STEEPENING INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE TOUGH TO CLEAR OUT. WILL               
LIKELY TRIM BACK ON OPTIMISM OF CLEARING TRENDS...ESPECIALLY EAST               
RIVER. FARTHER WEST MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ZONE OF WARM                 
ADVECTION WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SPREADING TOO FAR EAST AS COLUMN               
REMAINS FAIRLY DRY SO SHOULD SEE FAIR AMOUNT OF SOLAR IN THIS AREA.             
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVR FAR NE ND WHICH REMAINED             
IN THE CLEAR TO GENERALLY 20S ELSEWHERE. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR                   
ADJUSTMENT OVER FAR NORTH AND ALLOW FOR ONLY MINOR RECOVERY IN CLOUD            
COVERED AREAS.                                                                  
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
345 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
A FEW CONCERNS IN THE FORECAST INCLUDE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE AND FOG               
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR                
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT PACIFIC COAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  20Z                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TONGUE OF RELATIVELY HIGHER DEW POINTS                
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA             
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO TURN TO THE                
SOUTH OVER MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  HOWEVER...IN THE EXTREME              
NORTHEASTERN PART OF CWA EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN             
IN PLACE KEEPING DEW POINTS RELATIVELY HIGH.  18Z RUC ALSO SHOWS                
EASTERLY COMPONENT REMAINING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THIS AREA.                
WILL MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR THESE COUNTIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.               
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL THEN SHIFT TO NEXT SHORT WAVE TOMORROW.                   
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY.  MODELS NOW IN                 
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING SPLIT FLOW SOLUTION WITH MORE                      
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE.  HOWEVER...MODELS               
SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A MORE PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY-TILTED                   
SOLUTION TO THE WAVE EVOLUTION.  AVN..ETA..AND CANADIAN MODELS                  
SIMILAR ON TIMING OF WAVE WITH 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS PASSING THROUGH              
CWA SUNDAY MORNING.  UKMET AND AVN HAVE SLIGHTLY SHARPER 500 HPA                
WAVE WITH SMALLER WAVELENGTH...BUT THIS SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE AFFECT             
ON UPPER DIVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION PATTERNS BETWEEN THE                    
MODELS.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING REMAINS SOUTH OF CWA               
SATURDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER AVN AND ETA BOTH INDICATE 850 HPA                    
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 4-7 DEG CELSIUS RANGE. 12Z ETA FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FROM 800-650 HPA FOR TOMORROW               
AFTERNOON.  DESPITE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE                   
SATURDAY MORNING...MODELS REMAIN SHOW NO QPF DURING THE DAY TOMORROW            
WITH SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING VERY SHALLOW.                
ETA BRINGING IN SMALL QPF AMOUNTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND QPF                   
SIGNATURE IS LARGELY A REFLECTION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL PVA.                   
PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT AS ANY               
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS SHOULD BE AFTER PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  AVN SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE               
WITH QPF AMOUNTS BUT CONSIDERING TREND FOR AVN OVERDOING                        
PRECIPITATION WILL TREND TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION.  MODELS INDICATE              
STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACTING TO STRETCH 500 HPA PV TOMORROW              
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...REDUCING THE POTENTCY OF MID LEVEL PVA              
FORCING.  WILL DROP POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.  LACK            
OF SUFFICIENT DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MINIMAL                
DURATION IN THE UPPER FORCING SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS                  
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.  WITH SUCH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY             
SHEARED OUT MID LEVEL WAVE...SHOULD CLEAR RAPIDLY ON SUNDAY MORNING             
AS MODELS INDICATE TIGHT PV GRADIENT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST OF                    
REGION.  LARGE SCALE...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO CWA FOR            
MONDAY...BUILDING 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS RIDGE.  THIS WILL KEEP                 
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FORECAST DRY AND WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                         
EXTENDED MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN DAYS PAST ALTHOUGH            
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES.  THE MRF STARTS THE EXTENDED                  
PERIOD WITH A UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST AND AGREES WELL             
WITH THE CURRENT AVIATION.  NOGAPS AGREES FAIRLY WELL THOUGH IS                 
MUCH WEAKER WITH THE UPPER WAVE WEDNESDAY AND BUILDS TOO STRONG A               
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.  ECMWF DIGS A FAIRLY STRONG                
PACIFIC LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY WHERE MRF SOLUTION OF                 
TROUGH DIGGING TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND                  
CLOSING OFF LOOKS BEST.  WILL LEAN TOWARD MRF SOLUTION WHICH HAS H5             
RIDGE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH AN OPEN WAVE APPROACHING             
THROUGH WYOMING/MONTANA.  MOISTURE IS A LITTLE SPARSE MRF BRINGS A              
GOOD SURFACE LOW THROUGH WITH THIS WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SNOW WITH             
THIS BASED ON THICKNESS VALUES THAT ARE WELL BELOW 540 BY WEDNESDAY             
AFTERNOON.  RIDGE REFORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS            
IN THE WEST TURNING UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  UPPER LOW CLOSES              
OFF FRIDAY IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND WE LEAVE THIS EXTENDED                  
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER FLOW THAT LOOKS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE NEXT              
WINTER STORM.                                                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
KEEFE/MARSILI                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
919 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2001                                                      
REVIEW OF THE FIRST 12 HRS OF THE 00Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWS BOUNDARY                
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE 2KFT LESS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE                 
WEAKER.                                                                         
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY                         
OVERNIGHT(3KFT) AS A STRONG(40 KNOTS) LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.                   
MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE(I285/I290) ALSO DEVELOPS BUT                        
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST TO SUPPORT                  
RAIN(MOSTLY THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS). WITH THE 500HPA TROUGH DIGGING              
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...FEEL THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SIERRA               
MADRE WILL BE PULLED WEST OF THE CWA...AS THE ETA/MESOETA/NGM/RUC               
INDICATE. THEREFORE...ANY DYNAMICAL FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS            
FEATURE WILL LIKELY JUST SCRAPE THE FAR WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS.              
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE             
ASSESSMENT ABOVE...WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION. A                  
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL RESULT IN JUST STRATIFORM                         
PRECIPITATION. ALSO EXPECT THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE EAST AS THE WARM            
FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTH TEXAS. WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL                
ADVECTION OCCURRING...WILL REFLECT STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING                      
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. MESOETA/RUC FOG DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST PATCHY              
FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE...MAINLY THE EASTERN COUNTIES.                            
MARINE...LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESS UP NORTH               
DEEPENS. THIS WILL INCREASE MAINLY THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL                   
WATERS. MESOETA INDICATES A WEAK TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST                
TONIGHT...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH WAA ANTICIPATED AND AN UPPER              
LEVEL VORT MAX EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY WINDS             
ARE ELY ACROSS THE BAYS AND ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER MORE            
TO THE SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEY WILL BACK AGAIN TO THE E               
WITH THE WAA. WILL LOWER BAY WINDS BY ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND MAINTAIN AN             
ELY DIRECTION.                                                                  
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
85/BB/PUBLIC                                                                    
81/TE/MARINE-AVIATION                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
245 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA AND                    
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW              
WILL ALSO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD                  
ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND WESTERN ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.  THUS...CLOUDY               
SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SUNSHINE TOMORROW. BREEZES WILL ALSO               
KICK UP IN ALL AREAS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN              
ARIZONA. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO               
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER OUT              
SOME OF THE SUNSHINE.                                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO                  
WEAKEN AS OF 06Z. BEST ENHANCEMENT APPEARS EAST OF PHX WITH COLDEST             
500MB TEMPS...-28C...NEAR KINGMAN.  HEIGHTS ALSO HAVE BEGUN RISING              
WITH THIS SYSTEM...PER RUC/ETA...ALTHOUGH COLD ADVECTION LIKELY TO              
RESULT IN BANDS OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES              
TODAY. AVN HAS ALSO SLOWED SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS                           
RUNS...ALTHOUGH PRECIP AMOUNTS QUITE LIGHT. SFC DEW POINTS RAMPING              
UP SLOWLY FROM THE WEST...AND 88D REFL LOOPS SHOW LIGHT PRECIP                  
GENERALLY EAST OF YUMA-QUARTZSITE LINE AT 08Z. COLD FRONT DUE INTO              
PHX AROUND 12Z...CLOSE TO EARLIER PROJECTIONS. 850MB TEMPS TO DROP              
TO NEAR FREEZING BY 18Z...AVN BEING MUCH COLDER THAN ETA. THUS WE               
WILL MODIFY SNOW ADV SLIGHTLY AS PRECIP BAND IS DVLPG. WILL ALSO                
TWEAK FCSTS SLIGHTLY FOR WINDS AND POPS...OTHERWISE TRENDS GOOD FROM            
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  STG UPPER JET TO DIVE SOUTH ... BUT WILL KEEP                
WINDS BELOW ADVSRY LVLS AT IMPERIAL/BLYTHE.                                     
MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SERN CALIF BY LATE                
SUNDAY. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO ARIZONA               
DURING MIDWEEK...AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC TROFS APPROACHES.            
MRF SHOWS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NOW...AND BRINGS NEXT SYSTEM            
INTO THE CALIF COAST A BIT EARLIER.  LOOK FOR NICE TEMPERATURE                  
RECOVERY BY TUESDAY. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE SPCLY                 
TUESDAY.  SIPPLE                                                                
.PSR...SNOW ADVISORY SOUTHERN GILA AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY            
       ABOVE 4000 FEET UNTIL 3 PM MST.                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
345 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
FCST CONCERNS CONT TO BE CLOUDS...PRECIP CHANCES WITH TROF TNGHT/SUN            
AND TEMPS SUN. MDLS STILL DOING OK JOB ON SYNOPTIC SCALE BUT STILL              
HAVING SIG DIFFS WITH LL THERMAL GRADIENTS AND VERY HIGH LL RH.                 
SIDING WITH ETA FOR MOST PART THIS CYCLE...BUT STILL SPLIT FLO                  
GIVING MDLS FITS FROM RUN TO RUN.                                               
SC/ST BROKE OUT IN FORCE THIS MRNG AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS WILL              
BREAK THRU DAY. STRONG SRLY FLOW /40-50KTS AT H85/ COUPLED WITH                 
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONT THRU DAY. WITH SUCH STRONG WAA                
OVER STILL UNDERFCST COOL PBL...ST/SC BLOSSOMING. RUC/META                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT ENOUGH TO SATURATE OUT IN LOW LEVELS...DESPITE SOME             
VERY DRY AIR ATOP THE VERY SHALLOW INVERSION. A BIT WORRIED SOME                
GOOD MIXING MIGHT POKE SOME HOLES IN SC DECK...BUT THESE SHOULD FILL            
WITH CONTINUED LL WAA/LIFT. WITH CEILING SO LOW...COULD NOT RULE OUT            
A PATCH OR TWO OF DRIZZLE GIVEN HIGH LL MOISTURE. FOLLOWING ETA/META            
H9-H8 TEMPS TO BASE HIGHS ON...WHICH CAME OUT A BIT ABV GUIDANCE.               
TROF TONIGHT SLOWING A BIT AS ONE WOULD GUESS GIVEN STRENGTH OF                 
JET...BUT JET CONFIGURATION AND SPLIT FLOW MAKING THIS SYSTEM LOOK              
WEAKER BY THE MOMENT. STILL A FULL LATITUDE TROF...BUT OPEN AND                 
PROGRESSIVE. NO CHANCE TO REALLY WRAP SOME GOOD MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE            
INTO IT. IMPRESSIVE DRY LAYER /SEEN IN 00Z RAOBS AT KTOP/KOAX/KLBF/             
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TONIGHT IN WEST SHORT IN DURATION AND LIGHT.               
LOW/MID LEVEL UVV'S NOT EVEN THAT IMPRESSIVE...WITH SPLIT IN FLOW               
TAKING BEST FORCING BOTH SOUTH AND NORTH OF MPX CWA. STILL SEEING               
SIGNS THAT SOME BETTER/DEEPER MOISTURE ON 285/290K THETA SFCS COULD             
INTERACT WITH TROF OVER FAR ERN CWA ON SUNDAY AND BREAK OUT A LITTLE            
BETTER AREA OF -RA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS HERE...BUT STILL NOTHING TO            
GET EXCITED ABOUT. STEADY TEMPS IN WEST TMR UNDER MOD CAA...BUT EAST            
COULD POP CLOSE TO 40 AGAIN JUST AHEAD OF SLOWING FRONT. CAA TO ONLY            
LAST 6-12 HOURS AS FLOW RAPIDLY BCMS WRLY AGAIN...AS STRONG CANADIAN            
SYSTEMS FLATTEN OUT MID LAT FLOW. RESULT IS FAST ZONAL FLOW...WITH              
WEAK WAVES AND CONT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH PACIFIC FLOW.                  
SHOULD BE MORE FOG...EPISODES OF LOW SC/ST...AND LIGHT PCPN                     
AMTS/DURATION THRU NEXT WEEK. ONLY PERIODIC WEAK COOL DOWNS...ONE ON            
WED...AND NEXT WEEKEND. WHITE CHRISTMAS IN MN LOOKING BLEAKER AND               
BLEAKER.                                                                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
200 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
WATER VAPOR PICS SHOW WELL DEFINED TROF XG THE WRN CONUS THIS MRNG              
WITH ARND 200 M HT FALLS OVR THE GREAT BASIN.  VORTEX XG AZ/NM TDA              
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES ACRS THE PLNS TNGT...WHILE                   
TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR THE SRN PLNS.                                    
SFC LOW OVR ERN CO/WY HAS PULLED LLVL MSTR IN THE AREA WITH ST                  
SPREADING OVR THE ERN ZONES AS OF 08Z.  DURATION/WWD EXTENT OF THESE            
CLDS IS A PROBLEM WITH RUC/MESOETA COND PRES DEF PROGS CLRG THE AREA            
BY AFTN.  MSTR LYR IS SHALLOW SO WL MIX IT OUT TO PC WITH TEMPS                 
SOMEWHERE ARND HIGHER MAV NMBRS.  WINDS IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY LK               
OK.                                                                             
CDFNT STILL TIMED FOR LTR TNGT AND PCPN CHCS RMN QNABLE.  SFC LOW               
PROGGED TO WIND UP NR THE NCNTRL KS CNTIES BY MIDNGT WITH LLVL MSTR             
AXIS SHUNTED EWD.  ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL TROF            
IS UNIMPRESSIVE THIS RUN...EVEN FOR THE USUALLY STRNGR AVN.  LK AT              
MDL SNDINGS SHOWS THE SUB 700 MB LYR MOISTENS UP BRIEFLY TWD                    
12Z...WITH COLD AIR SWEEPING OVR THE CWA BY THAT TIME.  CANNOT RULE             
OUT LGT PCPN TIL THE TROF AXIS PASSES ON SUN MRNG.  WL MAINTAIN                 
CHC/SLGT CHC  POPS FOR -RA/SN FOR LATE SAT NGT/EARLY SUN.                       
REST OF THE PACKAGE LKS OK WITH RIDGING/WARM ADVCTN SLATED FOR                  
MON.                                                                            
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
09                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
600 AM EDT SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
MAIN FOCUS THIS PKG DEALS WITH -RA CHCS SUN INTO SUN                            
NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE USUAL CLD/TEMP FCST AGONIES.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND             
RDGG TOWARD THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV AND 100 KT              
3H JET MAX ROUNDING BASE OF UPR TROF OVR SW STATES WHILE MORE                   
SHEARED OUT SHRTWV EVIDENT OVR THE NRN ROCKIES. AT SFC...HIGH PRES              
RDG OVR THE CNTRL GRT LAKES WHILE LOW PRES IN LEE OF CO RCKYS.                  
SOMEWHAT MOIST SSE FLOW BTWN THESE FEATURES RESULTING IN AREAS OF               
UPSLOPE STRATUS OVR NCNTRL AND ERN ZONES OF U.P.                                
TODAY...WITH CONTINUED SSE FLOW EXPECT STRATUS CLDS TO HOLD IN OVER             
ERN ZONES PER 06Z ETA FCST SNDGS. NCNTRL ZONES COULD SEE SOME                   
EROSION OF STRATUS LATE THIS MORNING/ERY AFT WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND            
A SLIGHT VEERING OF WNDS TO S AHD OF APPROACHING SHEARED OUT CDFNT              
OVR NRN PLAINS. WRN FA SHOULD STAY FREE OF STRATUS BUT WILL CONTINUE            
TO SEE WAA CLDS SPILLING OVR RDG AXIS. DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925              
MB SEEMS REASONABLE DESPITE HIGH CLDS. THIS WOULD YIELD TEMPS NEAR              
HIGHER MAV VALUES OF 35 TO 40.                                                  
SATURDAY NIGHT...STRENGTHENING SLY LLVL JET TO 40 KTS SHOULD BRING              
IN LLVL MSTR THIS EVENING...SO WENT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS FA.                
DESPITE WK LIFT/Q-VECT CONV AHD OF APPROACHING TROF...MSTR TOO                  
SHALLOW FOR PCPN SO LEFT FCST DRY. STGR WINDS AND MIXING SHOULD KEEP            
MOST TEMPS ABV FREEZING AGAIN MORE IN LINE WITH AVN GUIDANCE.                   
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH              
MODERATE 700-300 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCRG 295-300K ISENTROPIC              
ASCENT AHD OF SHRTWV AND ASSOC SFC CDFNT...WL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP                 
LIKELY PCPN CHANCES FOR CNTRL AND ERN ZONES. TRIMMMED BACK WRN ZONES            
TO CHC POPS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT NOT AS IMPRESSIVE THERE. ALSO GIVEN              
MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH SHRTWV...BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF -RA                
THIS AFT SUN. ASSOC SFC CDFNT TENDS TO STALL OUT OR SLOW DOWN SUN               
NIGHT AS SHRTWV FIGHTS INTO UPR RDG...PER AVN MODEL. DESPITE LOSS OF            
BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT...LEFT IN GOING CHC POPS FOR WEST AND CNTRL              
ZONES AND LIKELY FOR EAST GIVEN FAIRLY DEEP MSTR TO 7KFT AND                    
PROMIXITY OF SFC CDFNT.                                                         
MONDAY...DESPITE GENL LOSS OF Q-VECT CONV...LINGERING MOISTURE ON               
MONDAY PER AVN SNDGS AND PRESENCE OF SFC-850 MB OVR AREA...LEFT IN              
CLDS AND FLURRIES. SUSPECT FLURRIES SHOULD END IN AFT AS SFC-850 MB             
FLOW BCMS MORE ANTICYCLONIC WITH RDG BLDG IN FM WEST.                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
945 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
CLOUD COVER MORE EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.                
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE FIELD WITH READINGS STILL IN               
THE LOW 40S...WITH A FEW MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE            
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON AND HARDLY ANY BREAKS              
IN THE OVERCAST...BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 45 TO 50 DEGREES AT              
BEST...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE THE              
DEPTH OF THE CLOUD COVER IS LESS. LATEST 20KM RUC STILL INDICATES               
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND QPF VALUES INCREASING BETWEEN 21-00Z               
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REFLECT DEW POINTS              
RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. NO              
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. UPDATED ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.                 
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
925 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
DATA FROM MORNING RADIOSONDE LAUNCH SHOWS SIG WARMING BLO                       
600MB...ABT 11 DEG C AT 925MB...OVR PAST 24 HRS. LI NOW BLO ZERO AT             
-2.1 AS AIR HAS BECOME VERY MOIST BLO 5K FT... WITH CI DECK ARND 25K            
FT. WINDS BTWN 2 AND 5K FT ARE 25-40KTS WITH VAD WIND PROFILE VERY              
SIMILAR.                                                                        
WV/IR SATELLITE LOOP HAS MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE STREAMING ACRS MEXICO             
TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE L/WV                
TROF CROSSING THE ROCKIES.                                                      
BRO RADAR IN REFLECTIVITY MODE DETECTING SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER            
THE CWA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS.                                         
SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE MORNING PACKAGE FOR NOW.                                  
MARINE...RUC DATA SHOWS THE MODERATE PGF PERSISTING OVER THE GULF               
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH DECENT 7H LIFT AND MOISTURE               
EVIDENT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.  ACCORDINGLY...WILL MAINTAIN A                
MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  BUOY020 CURRENTLY IS              
REPORTING WINDS NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 19 AND SWELLS NEAR 4 FT.               
HAVE AMENDED THE CURRENT CWF TO INCREASE SURFACE WINDS AND SWELLS A             
BIT OFFSHORE.  OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED ATTM.                      
SYNOPTIC-PUBLIC...59                                                            
MARINE-AVIATION...60/62                                                         
MESO...DW                                                                       
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED THE DATE                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE IS THE TEMPS TDA...AND INCR CLD CVR              
TNGT.                                                                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC DEPICTING RDG OVR W GRTLKS...TRAPPED BTWN A                  
CUTOFF LOW OVR N UT...AND A SHRTWV OVR ERN GRTLKS. MRNG SOUNDINGS               
SHOWING A SPLIT JET FLOW. ONE MOVING FM NM N ACRS THE HI PLAINS INTO            
CAN PRARIES...THEN E ACRS ONT. THE OTHER UPR LVL JET RUN ACRS SRN               
PLAINS THEN E THRU THE S OH VALLEY. A SFC LOW CONT TO DVLP OVR NE CO            
THIS AM...ALONG WITH A CDFNT WHICH STRETCHES ACRS SRN HI PLAINS. A              
LOW LVL 40KT JET STRETCHES FM CNTRL TX...N THRU CNTRL PLAINS TO MN              
THIS AM...AND WAS DRAWING WRM MOIST GULF AIR INTO UPR MS VALLEY.                
ALREADY SFC DWPNTS ARE INTO LOW 30S ACRS MN.                                    
A WEAK SHRTW WILL BE EXPELLED FM THE TROF OVR SW CONUS INTO W GRTLKS            
TDA. THE MEAN SFC-500MB RH WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 50 PCT OVR THE                 
REGION THRU 00Z SUN. RUC 290K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING WEAK LIFT OVR            
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...850-500MB Q-VEC ANLYS SHOWING                
NEUTRAL LIFT. VIS IMAGERY DEPICTING AN EXTENSIVE LYR OF CLDS ACRS WI            
EDGING OVR THE U.P. SFC ANLYS AND IR INDCT THESE CLDS TO BE A                   
SHALLOW LOW CLDS. RAOB INDICT THAT THESE CLDS WOULD BE BLO THE                  
INVRN ARND 950MB. SOUNDING DATA SHOWING THE LYR SHOULD DRY OUT                  
ENOUGH FOR THE CLDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...SHORTLY               
AFT THAT...CI/AC WILL FLOW BACK OVR THE U.P. ALREADY THESE CLDS                 
ARE SHOWING UP OVR IA...IL AND SW WI. THEREFORE...THERE SHOULD BE               
MIX OF SUN AND CLDS THIS AFTN...WHICH WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING. TEMPS             
ARE A LTL COOLER THAN MDLS SHOW. WILL BUMP TEMPS DOWN A BIT.                    
CDFNT WILL SLIDE INTO MN...AND CONT TO DRAW WARM GULF MSTR INTO THE             
UPR GRTLKS....WHICH WILL SATURATE OUT THE LOW LVLS. Q-VEC CVNGNC                
WILL INCR ACRS THE FCST AREA OVRNGT. 290K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING              
ASENT IN THE LOW LVLS ACRS U.P. TNGT. THUS SOUNDING DATA INDICATES              
THAT THE MID LVL CLDS WILL THICKEN OVRNGT. THE CLDS SHOULD KEEP THE             
TEMPS UP OVRNGT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE S...AND INCR OVRNGT.              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
248 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT                            
SYNOPSIS -- 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LOW OVER NERN CO WITH AN                 
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM CNTRL ND TO ERN NM.  PRESSURE               
FALLS TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE WERE RESULTING IN STRONG, S WINDS                
ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS STATES.  ALOFT, MORNING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS AND            
AFTERNOON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATED A DIGGING TROUGH OVER              
THE ROCKIES, WITH A BRANCHED DOWNSTREAM JET STRUCTURE:  ONE AXIS                
FROM WRN NM TO ERN MT, AND THE OTHER FROM CHIHUAHUA MEXICO, ACROSS              
TX TO THE CAROLINAS.                                                            
FORECAST -- ETA DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR W             
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS IT SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE PLAINS.                
ALTHOUGH RUCII DATA INDICATES STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES                  
APPROACHING FROM THE SW (~7.0 TO 7.5 DEG C/KM), ONLY WEAK                       
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST (AS SEEN IN THE Q-VECTOR FIELDS) WITH            
SHALLOW SATURATION IN THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ETA FORECAST             
SOUNDINGS.  THUS, WE WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL BUT             
FAR SERN ZONES, WHERE WE WILL KEEP 30 PERCENT GOING.  OTHERWISE,                
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR GUIDANCE                  
VALUES.  ON SUNDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IN             
THE MORNING ACROSS THE ERN ZONES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE                
FRONT.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT ISN'T ALL THAT COLD, AND WITH             
INSOLATION INCREASING BY AFTERNOON, WE HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO               
THE WARMER MAV VALUES.                                                          
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH                 
DOWNSLOPING, LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUPPORTING A WARMUP.  WE WILL               
SEE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A             
SLIGHT COOL DOWN, THEN RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AHEAD OF            
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE W COAST.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A               
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MEX                
VALUES.                                                                         
THANKS TO LBF FOR COORDINATION!                                                 
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
213 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS POPS TONIGHT. PRETTY STRONG UPPER                
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EARLY THIS                   
EVENING...STRONG GRADIENT WILL HOLD WINDS IN THE BREEZY/WINDY                   
CATEGORY EASTERN ZONES. ALSO...SURGE OF 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS COMING              
RIGHT UP THE I-135 CORRIDOR AND TAKING DEAD AIM ON EASTERN HALF                 
OF CWFA. M-ETA AND RUC SUGGEST RAPID INFILTRATION OR FORMATION                  
OF CLOUDS AS MOISTURE INCREASING AND WARM ADVECTION SETS UP FOR                 
A TIME THIS EVENING. THIS WILL AFFECT LOWS TONIGHT...AND HAVE                   
HELD THEM UP A BIT IN THE EAST...AND ANTICIPATE THE TEMPERATURES                
TO DROP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS FROPA OCCURS THERE.                              
THE RISK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY SMALL TONIGHT.                  
AGEOSTROPHIC ENHANCEMENT NOT FAVORABLE BY LATE EVENING...ISENTROPIC             
LIFT IS SHORT LIVED...AND MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED. WHAT/S THERE              
IS VERY SHALLOW. SPLIT TYPE TROUGH FOCUSES ENERGY TO OUR NORTH                  
AND SOUTH...AND LEAVES US IN BETWEEN. HAVE DROPPED ZFP POP WORDING              
AND WENT PROVERBIAL SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WORDING. AVN HANGS ON TO                 
CLOUDS TOMORROW LONGER THAN THE ETA. DECIDED TO DELAY CLEARING                  
WORDING JUST A BIT. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DEFINITELY TAKE              
TEMPERATURES LOWER.                                                             
THROUGH THE FIRST 15 DAYS OF DECEMBER...WE ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 13               
DEGREES ABOVE. THIS GENERAL IDEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF DAYS 2           
THROUGH 7...WITH MONDAY/S WEST WINDS AND SUNSHINE EXPECTED TO PUSH              
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MANY AREAS. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS TUESDAY               
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMALS. COOLEST             
DAY IS WEDNESDAY BUT SUNSHINE LOOKS LIKELY. RIDGING AHEAD OF DIGGING            
WEST COAST TROUGH SUGGESTS WARMER WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND             
CURRENT 40S IN THE FORECAST MAY NOT DUE. MRF EJECTS WAVE SATURDAY AND           
AND WARM ADVECTION ASSERTS ITSELF. THE RESULT IS PRECIPITATION                  
CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME...ALONG WITH           
APPROACHING TRAVEL HOLIDAY...LEAD ME TO HOLD OFF ON PRECIPITATION...            
AND WAIT FOR SOME MORE CONTINUITY TO DEVELOP. AFTER DAY 7...THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG RIDGE NEAR WEST COAST WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN             
DETERMINING HOW THINGS WILL SHAKE OUT OVER HOLIDAYS.                            
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
MORITZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
305 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                      
WL MAKE SOME CHANGES TO EARLY PTN FCST AS SLOWER MVMT OF TROF                   
CURRENTLY INTO CNTRL ND HAS RESULTED IN SOME TIMING PROBLEMS AND                
INCG MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SOME PCPN OVER WRN AND CNTRL ND THROUGH              
EARLY SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME MDL DIFFERENCES BUT HAVE SETTLED ON 18Z            
MESOETA FOR DETAILS. THIS IS PRETTY SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT OF 70H TROF            
COMPARED TO LATEST RUC...BUT NOT QUITE AS DEEP...AND IS ALSO WEAKER             
THAN 12Z RUNS OF ETA/AVN. IN THE WEST THIS EVENG CONCERN IS THAT MID            
LVLS OF ATMS HAVE NOT COOLED OFF ENOUGH THAT ENTIRE COLUMN IS BELOW             
FREEZING. THUS AS SFC TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY THIS EVENING              
ANY HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE GROUND MAY BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING             
RAIN. ATTIM NO REPORTS TO CONFIRM/DENY THOUGHT BUT MAY MENTION SOME             
FREEZING SPRINKLES WRN ZONES THIS EVNG. HOPEFULLY COLUMN SHLD HAVE              
COOLED ENOUGH THAT BY TIME PCPN REACHES CNTRL ND PCPN WL BE ALL                 
SNOW. AMOUNTS WL BE LGT AND WL GO CAT POPS ONLY FOR NERN ZONES...FM             
MOT EWD...AND MENTION AMTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WL STICK WITH POPS                
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CNTRL ZONES FOR NOW...AND ONLY FLURRIES/PSBL                   
FREEZING SPRINKLES WEST. WL ALSO MENTION SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FAR            
ERN ZONES SUN MRNG. ANOTHER PROBLEM MAY BE AREAS OF FOG SO WL                   
MENTION FOG FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF CURRENT TROF POSN. LOW                  
CLOUDS WL KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN PREV FCST OVER CNTRL AND ERN ZONES             
SO RAISED OVER NIGHT LOWS THESE AREAS.                                          
BEYOND FIRST AND EARLY SECOND PDS LTTL OR NO CHANGES TO GOING FCST.             
MILD WORDING ON MONDAY LOOKS GOOD AS UPR RDG BUILDS OVER RGN WITH               
GOOD WLY FLOW AS SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF AREA.                            
IN THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WITH SERIES OF WK IMPULSES               
THROUGH PD. PERHAPS A LTL MORE SIG TROF IND BY MRF FOR FRI-SAT PD               
BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP A DRY FCST THROUGH            
EXTENDED PD.                                                                    
.BIS...NONE.                                                                    
TWH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1015 AM MST SAT DEC 15 2001                                                     
CDFNT SLOWLY SLIDING THROUGH SRN HALF OF CWFA ATTM. THE UPPER TROF              
AND POST FRONTAL PCPN STILL W OF CWFA...AND THE TENDENCY HAS BEEN TO            
SLOW ITS EWD MOVEMENT. 12Z ETA/15Z RUC NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH EITHER               
OMEGA OR RH FIELDS ACRS CWFA...REALLY NOT MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT.            
THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS AND PUSHED BACK PCPN TIMING TO EXTEND INTO               
'TONIGHT' PD. LOW FROUDE NUMBERS AND LACK OF RH SHOULD KEEP UPSLOPE             
SNOW OVER THE NRN HILLS TO A MINIMUM.                                           
WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF TROF...STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO             
THIS EVENING ACRS SD ZONES. HOWEVER...MAX 850MB WINDS OF 35-40KTS               
SHOULD KEEP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                      
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd