FXUS63 KDTX 160101
AFDDTX

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
900 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2003

NO UPDATE TO FORECAST NEEDED THIS EVENING. LAST OF CU ALONG WEAK
CONVERGENCE LINE FROM LAKE BREEZE OFF ERIE CURRENTLY FADING INTO
THE SUNSET. THICKER CIRRUS IN ADVANCE OF WISCONSIN UPPER SYSTEM
STREAMING OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND ONLY BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN
THUMB...LEAVING A CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE AREA. SEE LITTLE REASON FOR
ANY FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AFTER MINIMAL FOG LAST NIGHT AND AN EVEN
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ATT.

*** 130 PM DISCUSSION ***

DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COMPARED TO 
YESTERDAY. RIDGING MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS 
MORNING...WHICH REALLY HELPED DRY US OUT...AS INDICATED BY 12Z DTX 
SOUNDING. FOG WAS PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE 
CWA. CU HAS ALSO HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING TODAY. JUST SOME 
SCT CU AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...HELPED OUT BY SOME 
CONVERGENCE/POOLING OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF LAKE BREEZES. 
WITH THE SUNSHINE TODAY...SEE NO REASON TO ADD FOG TO THE FORECAST 
TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT. 

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A SHORTWAVE SPINNING OVER 
EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN. VISIBLE/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY 
NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. 
THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS TOMORROW..AND THEN TRACK 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A 
MINIMAL AFFECT ON OUR WEATHER (JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS). PLAN ON GOING 
WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 80 ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY 
THE GFS) LOOKS A LITTLE TOO COOL. DON'T THINK THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL 
AFFECT TEMPS BY MORE THAN TWO DEGREES OR SO. 

WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH WHICH DIVES 
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND....LEADING TO AN 
EVENTUAL CUTOFF. THIS RESULT'S IN A BETTER SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVING 
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...AS 1020+ MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES 
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE BEGUN THE TREND AND LOWERED TEMPS 
3-5 DEGREES ON THURSDAY...ALONG WITH REMOVING THE THREAT OF ANY 
PRECIP. 

.EXTENDED...
THE GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUES. HIGHLY 
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON 
FRIDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE 
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST AND SLOWLY BREAK DOWN. HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL DAYS 6 AND 7. IN 
FACT...WE HAVE A SHOT AT HITTING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. NOT GOING 
THAT WARM JUST YET. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GOOD RETURN FLOW WILL BE COMING UP FROM THE 
GULF. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL BE STREAMING NORTHWARD. 
SUMMER OFFICIALLY BEGINS ON JUNE 21ST...AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE 
MOTHER NATURE WILL BE COOPERATING...AS THE THREE H'S 
(HAZY...HOT...HUMID) MAY MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE HERE IN SOUTHEAST 
MICHIGAN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR ALL THOSE WHO COMPLAINED 
ABOUT THE COOL START TO JUNE...ENJOY THIS VERY WARM AND DRY STRETCH 
OF WEATHER. IT ALL BALANCES OUT IN THE END.

.DTX...NONE.

$$

GURNEY

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT  
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)