AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
810 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                       
WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW BRISK NLY FLOW JUST OFF              
THE SURFACE. HOWEVER 22Z RUC ADVERTISES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN               
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CAA BY 09Z...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO GO            
LIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SCATTERED JET STREAM CIRRUS CROSSING               
THE CWFA. DO NOT EXPECT THIS CLOUDINESS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT                 
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. MAY SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMUM                       
TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND AREAS TONIGHT. TLH HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE              
OF BREAKING ITS RECORD LOW FOR THE 10TH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 43                 
DEGREES SET IN 1972. WE HAVE ISSUED AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER                
OUTLOOK (MIASPSTLH) TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN FAVORED             
AREAS.                                                                          
MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THIS TIME...SO              
WILL KEEP SCA GOING. STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVER THE WATERS COMBINED               
WITH A COLLAPSING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP WINDS BRISK OVER OUR               
MARINE ZONES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT.                                      
FEEDBACK IS ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                     
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ALL FLORIDA ZONES.                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.                                     
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
840 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                       
AFTER MUCH CONSIDERATION...WE WILL NOT UPDATE THE ZONES THIS                    
EVENING. HAD GIVEN THOUGHT TO RAISING MIN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT ALONG               
AND S OF I-20...BUT AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC DATA IT APPEARS             
THAT THE THICK CI OVERHEAD WILL BE GONE BY MORNING. THIS WOULD                  
ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH WOULD TAKE US NEAR THE            
CURRENTLY FORECASTED MINS.     05                                               
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
1024 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                      
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE               
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 9 AM AND 10 AM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...                 
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S...ARE ABOUT THE SAME TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES             
WARMER. WILL CALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGHS OF 55 TO 60 IN THE NORTH           
WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNER AND HIGHER AND SHOULD ALLOW MORE HEATING TO            
50 TO 55 SOUTH UNDER THICKER LOWER CLOUDS AND PROBABLY LESS                     
SUNSHINE.                                                                       
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO ETA AND RUC RUNS WILL CONTINUE             
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
.LCH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO HIGH ISLAND                    
       OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES.                                                   
.LA...SCA GMZ450-455-470-475.                                                   
.TX...SCA GMZ450-470.                                                           
.PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                              
BPT 55/43/67/50 0000                                                            
LCH 54/42/66/48 0000                                                            
LFT 54/42/67/48 0000                                                            
AEX 57/37/64/42 0000                                                            
20 / SPARKS                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                      
UPDATE CONCERN IS WITH MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT.                                     
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH UPPER                
HIGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS WITH LOWS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS.                
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA WITH 30-50C DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS              
BETWEEN 850-700MB AT KINL/CWPL/KMPX PER 00Z SOUNDING.                           
00Z RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1000-500MB RH <20 PERCENT ACROSS THE GREAT               
PLAINS. IR/WANING VIS SATELLITES SHOW A FEW CIRRUS OVER WESTERN                 
ONTARIO AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. 00Z               
RUC KEEPS THIS SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT SO DO NOT BELIEVE             
THESE CLOUDS WILL BE A FACTOR. AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTRAILS HAVE                 
FADED...LEAVING SKIES JUST PLAIN CLEAR.                                         
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH OVER WESTER WISCONSIN.                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING OVER CWA...AS FORECAST BY 12Z-18Z                   
ETA/21Z-00Z RUC. KSAW/KIMT AND OTHERS STATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN CWA             
HAVE QUICKLY DECOUPLED AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED AFTER               
SUNSET...WITH KIWD GOING FROM 53 TO 37 IN ONE HOUR AND KIMT/KSAW                
SHOWING SIMILARLY FAST DROPS. DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY RECOVERED INTO              
THE LOW-MID 20S...AFTER DECENT MIXING DURING THE DAY DROPPED KSAW               
DEWPOINT TO 14F AND KIWD TO 16F. ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...A LIGHT               
NORTHWEST WIND HAS HELPED SLOW THE TEMPERATURE DROP. EVEN WITH                  
INITIAL TEMPERATURE PLUNGE...EXPECT THE DROP TO SLOW LEAVING GOING              
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
845 PM PDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                       
SYSTEM COMING IN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN MODELS FORECAST EARLIER AND             
FURTHER SOUTH ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION THE PAST             
SEVERAL RUNS. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SIERRA HAS GENERATED CONVECTION MAINLY     
WEST OF CREST BUT EVEN SOME DEVELOPMENT OCCURING IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA         
IN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.  BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMING MORE NORTH-SOUTH         
ORIENTED AS UPPER JET DIVES INTO BASE OF TROUGH. PRE-FRONTAL WINDS HAVE         
MOSTLY BEEN BELOW ADVISORY BUT HAD ISSUED WIND ADVISORY ZONE 1 DUE TO           
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS THAT CLOSED HIGHWAY 95. MOST RAWS DATA INDICATING          
WIND HAS DECREASED ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH DATA AVAILABLE IN THAT AREA. WILL          
ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BUT KEEP FORECAST WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY              
WINDY. AS EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHADOWED OUT PRECIP OVER             
EXTREME WESTERN VALLEYS BUT AS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST SHOULD SEE              
DECREASE IN WIND TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.  DRI WIND PROFILER EAST           
OF RENO AIRPORT IS STARTING TO SHOW DECREASE.                                   
I DON'T THINK THE MODELS INITIALIZED VORT MAX OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA            
COAST VERY WELL THOUGH THE RUC ISN'T TOO FAR OFF. NGM DOES PICK UP ON           
THE MID-LEVEL JET MAX MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SIERRA AND THIS SHOULD HELP          
KEEP GOOD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING INTO SIERRA. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BUT         
DYNAMICS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TO GENERATE SOME PRECIP.             
COLDER AIR IS STILL WEST OF CWA. MTN TOP TEMPS JUST BEGINNING TO DIP            
WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL DOWN TO AROUND 7500-8000 FEET. LIMITED REPORTS          
INDICATE SNOW FALLING OVER SONORA PASS. SEVERAL FEATURES TO ROTATE              
THROUGH 500 MB TROUGH NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME VERTICAL            
MOTION AND INSTABILITY GOING. BEST FOCUS IS OVER MONO COUNTY WHICH MAY          
NEED TO HAVE WARNING EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW NIGHT BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH         
MOISTURE ROTATES AROUND LOW TOMORROW. WILL BE UPDATING MAINLY TO TOUCH          
UP FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. DP                                                    
.REV...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                 
             FOR ZONES 2...71...72.                                             
       WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                 
            FOR ZONE 73.                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1003 PM EDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                      
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION                    
REORIENTING FROM NORTHNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST...CORROBORATES TREND               
RUC AND MESOETA EXPECTED WITH COLD LOWLEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT. SO                 
DIMINISHED WORDING OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES AND                    
FLURRIES IN FAR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND DRY SOUTH AND WEST.                    
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS PER CURRENT READINGS. REST UNCHANGED.                    
...GIORDANO                                                                     
PIT   35  56  39  63 /  30  20  10  10                                          
HLG   36  57  40  64 /  30  10  10  10                                          
MGW   36  58  40  64 /  30  10  10  10                                          
ZZV   34  60  39  65 /  30  10   5  10                                          
PHD   34  58  39  64 /  30  10   5  10                                          
FKL   32  53  36  61 /  40  30  10  10                                          
DUJ   32  52  36  60 /  40  30  10  10                                          
LBE   33  55  39  64 /  40  30  10  10                                          
BTP   34  54  36  62 /  40  30  10  10                                          
IDI   33  54  38  63 /  40  30  10  10                                          
ODM   32  52  34  62 /  40  30  10  10                                          
.PBZ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1013 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                      
WELCOME THIS OCTOBER WEATHER WITH OPEN ARMS TODAY...WITH BRILLIANT              
SUNSHINE...AND NOT MUCH ELSE.  SLY GRADIENT STGR...ESPLY W...AND                
DIFFICULTY TODAY WL BE HOW MUCH OF INVERSION IS MIXED OUT. MRNG                 
RAOBS INDICATE WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTING IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF A             
RETREATING HIGH...WARMER AIR AVAILABLE IN THE NW WHERE STGR FLOW                
INDICATED...AND LESS FLOW AND A DEEPER COLD LAYER IN THE SE.  JUST              
LOOKING AT THE BASE MORNING RAOBS...ONE MIGHT EXPECT ARND 10F RANGE             
SE TO NW WITH THE THERMAL AND WIND PARAMETERS...AND THAT IS IN THE              
FORECAST.  WIND TRENDS LOOK GOOD IN FCST IN COMPARISON TO PROFILERS             
AND RUC/MESOETA TREND...AND SEE NO REASON TO TINKER WITH THE GOING              
FCST AS WL LIKELY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE IF ANYTHING. STILL THEY             
RIDE...                                                                         
OVERALL...NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE QUITE ELEVATION DEPENDENT ON              
TEMPS...ESPLY NIGHTTIME.                                                        
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
230 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                       
12Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWS GREATEST AREA OF WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS             
PUSHED E TOWARDS S-CNTRL TX. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PERSISTENT CLOUD              
LYR TO ERODE FROM E TO W DURING THE AFTN AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO               
CONT TNGT PER RUC T-SECTS. THE WRN ZONES MAY TAKE UNTIL AFT MIDNGT              
TO BREAKOUT BUT ANTICIPATE ALL LOCATIONS TO BE PC BY 08Z IF NOT                 
SOONER. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDS FCST LOWS WED MORNING WILL                
ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING MARK. ATTM BELIEVE BEST CHANCE               
WILL BE ACROSS NW ZONES WHERE A FREEZE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TWICE               
AND A WARNING IS NO LONGER REQUIRED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A               
LGT FREEZE MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SW AND S-CNTRL ZONES BUT CONFIDENCE             
IS NOT HIGH ATTM. AFT COORD WITH MAF HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST A FRZ             
WARNING FOR THIS AREA AND LET NXT SHIFT REEVALUATE. TEMPS WILL BE               
WARMER TMRW THANKS TO RISING H8-H7 TEMPS AND MORE SUN. STILL PREFER             
THE COOLER FAN/MAV NUMBERS OVR MOS.                                             
BY WED STRONG H2 JET WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE BAY OF AK AND HELP                
DEEPEN THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NR 40N/126W. THE                
RESULT WILL BE A LARGE AND BROAD CUT OFF LOW TYPE FEATURE. TROPICAL             
MOISTURE ASSOC WITH TROP DEPR OLIVA WILL STREAM NE ALONG THE SUBTROP            
JET AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAY BRING SOME SCT PRECIP TO THE WRN               
ZONES. THIS IS ALREADY WELL HANDLED IN THE FCST. OTRW EXPECT WARMING            
CONDS TO CONT WITH PC SKIES.                                                    
EXTENDED FCST...MUCH WILL BE DEPENDANT ON WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE              
AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OVR THE ROCKIES. MRF/ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN                 
KEEPING A CUT OFF THROUGH SAT WHILE THE NOGAPS IS MUCH MORE                     
PROGRESSIVE. AGREE WITH NCEP THAT THE MRF/ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE                   
CONSISTENT SO WILL PLAY THAT ROUTE FOR NOW. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT           
THE ASSOC PACIF FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FA ON FRI AND STALL OR                  
BECOME Q-STNRY SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH PLAINS. WK IMPULSES WILL                  
LIKELY EJECT FM THE LOW AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP BOTH FRI AND               
SAT.                                                                            
THANKS FOR COORD CALL MAF.                                                      
PRELIM NUMBERS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE...                                           
FRIONA     032/060/041/063 0002     BROWNFIELD  034/061/044/068 0002            
TULIA      033/061/042/064 0000     LUBBOCK     035/061/045/069 0000            
CHILDRESS  034/064/043/068 0000     ASPERMONT   035/063/046/070 0000            
.LUB...NONE.                                                                    
TAYLOR                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
925 AM CDT MON OCT 9 2000                                                       
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA AT MID-MORNING.            
ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ISSUES FOR THE UPDATE. THE 00Z NCEP MODELS            
AND LATEST RUC OFFER NO HELP.                                                   
KHGX AND SURROUNDING 88DS INDICATE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE               
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW            
HOURS. WV/IR/VIS IMAGERY PICK UP FROM THERE AND INDICATE RAIN WILL              
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL UPDATE TO LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF            
I-10 IN LINE WITH PERIODS OF RAIN WORDING...AND CHANGE LOW POPS                 
WORDING IN THE CNTRL COUNTIES TO SHOWERS. WILL ALSO REMOVE LATE                 
WORDING FOR THE SECOND PERIOD POPS...AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY             
BREAK.                                                                          
TEMPS WILL FOLLOW AN INVERSE PATTERN...HIGHEST IN THE FAR NORTH                 
WHERE THE NO RAIN IS EXPECTED...AND LOWEST IN THE SOUTH WHERE RAIN              
INDUCED EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND A THICK OVERCAST SKY WILL KEEP A LID            
ON TEMPS. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS FROM ONE CATEGORY FAR                      
SOUTH...TO 1/2 CATEGORY CNTRL...TO LEAVING THE CURRENT FORECAST                 
ALONE IN THE FAR NORTH.                                                         
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST.                         
.KHGX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE AREAS.                                  
31/47/35                                                                        
UPDATE PRELIMS...                                                               
CLL EW 056/043 058/050 065 414   **                                             
IAH RW 053/045 059/052 065 724  *** CHANGED WEATHER AND POPS 1ST PERIOD         
GLS RW 055/050 056/055 063 735   **                                             
RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS                                                             
     MON 10/09                                                                  
CLL   65  1925                                                                  
IAH   69  1970                                                                  
GLS   67  1976                                                                  
RECORD LOWS                                                                     
     TUE 10/10                                                                  
CLL   42  1990                                                                  
IAH   44  1976                                                                  
GLS   52  1945                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
300 AM MDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEK MAKING FOR                  
CHALLENGING FORECASTS.  COULD SEE FIRST PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT            
FOR ERN SAN JUANS...IF ALL ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER.                              
CURRENTLY: LATEST METARS SHOWED LEE SIDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CO            
PLAINS.  "POCKETS" OF SC CONTINUED...AND WERE FORMING...IN AND                  
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS PER             
FOG SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL                   
ANIMATIONS SHOWED POTENT SYSTEM COMING ON-SHORE NR SAN FRANCISCO.               
NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS INTENSIFIED...PER LIGHTNING                    
DETECTION DATA...OVER NV IN ULJ'S LFQ.  STILL 100-130KTS ULJ DIGGING            
ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.                                                    
TDA: SURPRISINGLY...ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS EXCELLENTLY VERIFING WITH            
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN AND WEST COAST ULJ/SHORTWAVES AT 06Z/10.                 
WRN US SYSTEM SHOULD CLOSE OFF IN THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY TUE AFTN.              
IN RESPONSE...LOWER/MID TROP WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS               
CWFA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS STILL OUT W.  700MB TEMPS WARM                    
CONTINUE TO BE PROGGED +5 TO +8C...WITH AVN THE WARMEST...ACROSS                
ERN 1/2 OF CO THIS AFTN.  STILL SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING                 
AROUND IN WRN CO.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SHORTWAVES COMING                   
THROUGH WITH FEEBLE MID-LEVEL QG ASCENT.  NOT MUCH OCCURRED YDA...              
EXCEPT FOR SOME SHRA...PER POST SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA INSPECTION.            
WILL MAINTAIN UNCERTAINTY POP TERMS FOR SW/CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND                  
ADJACENT UPPER AR RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT ZFP               
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                            
TNGT: UPPER SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS                
INCREASING.  EXCELLENT 700MB WIND DIRECTION(190-210) FOR OROGRAPHIC             
ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN SAN JUANS.  WIND SPEEDS PROGGED TO BE 20-                 
30KTS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON 700MB TEMPS...THOUGH.              
AVN CONTINUES TO BE THE COOLEST(0 TO -2C) WHILE ETA IS AROUND 0C AND            
NGM IS +2 TO +4C.  VERTICAL MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES TO BE PROGGED              
AOB 600MB. MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITIES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 6.0-           
6.5 C/KM...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  POTENTIAL SNOW              
LEVELS WILL LIKELY START HIGH THEN COULD LOWER TO AROUND 10K FT...              
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF DIABATIC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  MAY START           
TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TNGT.               
MID-LEVEL(700-500MB) IMPLIED QG VERTICAL MOTION INDICATING SUBSIDENCE           
DURING THE NGT WITH MOST OF THE LIFT 500-300MB LAYER. SNOW MODEL                
INDICATES POSSIBLE 3-5 INCHES AOA 10K FT LATE TNGT.  SW MID-LEVEL               
FLOW NOT ALL THAT GREAT FOR PRODUCING OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CNTRL            
MOUNTAINS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS CWFA...LOWER/MID TROP WINDS WILL BE                
INCREASING ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAKES FOR                      
CHALLENGING LOW TEMPS...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS TEMPS           
ARE INDICATING.  ACTUALLY AVN MOS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD WARMER WED           
AM TEMPS FOR 4 RUNS NOW.  IT MAY ONLY GET DOWN INTO THE 40S IN THE              
SERN CO PLAINS.  MAY NEED TO ADJUST CURRENT LOW TEMPS TO REFLECT                
THIS.    WITH NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT ELEMENTS BECOMING                    
JUXTAPOSED...WILL NOT BOOST 60/61 POP WORDING FORECAST AND GIVE IT              
ANOTHER MODEL RUN.  ALSO...WILL NOT LOCK-IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR LATE           
2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT.  ALL IN ALL...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS GOOD.               
WED: MAIN NRN STREAM SYSTEM DRIFTS NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AS                  
STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS THROUGH SRN CA/GREAT BASIN WITH PARENT                  
100-130KT ULJ PROGGED ACROSS WRN CO BY WED AFTN.  CERTAINLY MAKES               
FOR A COMPLEX FORECAST.  FAVORED LOWER/MID-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN                
PLACE FOR ERN SAN JUAN. MOST OF THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION COULD               
COME IN PERIODIC WAVES.  AGAIN...MUCH OF THE IMPLIED QG ASCENT IS               
500-300MB LAYER.  MODEL INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 500-300MB               
LAYER "DRY" SLOT WILL BI-SECT SW-NERN CO WED-THU AND SEEM REASONABLE            
GIVEN PROGGED ULJ POSITION.  AROUND 80% RH MOISTURE STILL REMAINS AOB           
600MB FOR SWRN CO. 700MB TEMPS DON'T CHANGE MUCH WED.  IN FACT...AVN            
SLIGHTLY WARMS TEMPS.  SNOW LEVEL STILL COULD REMAIN AROUND 10K                 
FT...IF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES DURING THE DAY. IF PRECIPITATION                
INTENSITY IS GREATER...THEN SNOW LEVEL MAY LOWER.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR           
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWS SHOULD BE AOA 9500 FT.  SNOW MODEL RUNNING               
MARGINAL 12HR SNOW ADVISORY NUMBERS AND SEEMS LIKELY. NOT SURE IF WE            
COULD MAKE THE 24HR WARNING NUMBERS...TOO.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY                
WATCHES AND THIS IS TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY. PLENTY OF TIME FOR             
ANOTHER MODEL RUN FOR DAYSHIFT TO MAKE THE CALL.  CURRENT ZFP FOR               
SWRN/CNTRL MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO HAVE IT WELL COVERED. ELSEWHERE...BORA            
PATTERN DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SERN CO                  
MOUNTAINS EAST FACING SLOPE AND PLAINS.  MAIN WEATHER FEATURE SHOULD            
BE VERY LOW OR NIL POPS...WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS.                            
EXTENDED(THU-SAT): SOME HINTS OF LOW/MID MOIST CONVEYER BELT MOVING             
OUT OF NM INTO SERN CO IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS WRN            
CO WED NGT.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ANY MENTION FOR SERN CO PLAINS.            
60-72HR AVN/CANADIAN/NOGAPS MODELS...INCLUDING LATEST MRF...CONTINUE            
TO SUGGEST SW-NE 100-130KT ULJ WILL MOVE ACROSS CO WED NGT/THU AS               
UPPER LOW CONTINUES OVER NRN ROCKIES. CANADIAN MODEL STILL SUGGESTING           
SPLIT FLOW WITH SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS DESERT SW THU-SAT. MRF           
SUSPICIOUSLY "BLOWS UP" A SHORTWAVE IN ERN CO BY FRI.  ALL OF THESE             
MODELS INDICATING MORE OF AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS MOVING               
THROUGH LATE THU-FRI AND INTO THE PLAINS SAT.  MRF IS THE FASTEST. IF           
60-72 HR PATTERN VERIFIES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY ACROSS            
WRN/CNTRL CO THU-FRI.  THIS WILL SHIFT THE FAVORED UPSLOPE COMPONENT            
FROM SWRN CO MOUNTAINS TO CNTRL...BUT MOISTURE DEPTH/QUANTITY IS LESS           
"WET." POTENTIAL NWLY UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES FOR CNTRL MOUNTAINS BY            
SAT. "DRY SLOT" DEEPENS CONSIDERABLE ACROSS SERN CO MOUNTAINS/PLAINS            
THU-SAT...WITH ANY POTENTIAL RH FURTHER W/N.  AIR MASS BEHIND THE               
SYSTEM IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SO NO DRAMATIC COOL DOWN ANTICIPATED.             
CURRENT EFP LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                      
WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL SNOWFALL...BUT NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS...              
FOR SWRN/CNTRL MOUNTAINS IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK AS A "HEADS             
UP" FOR THE MEDIA/PUBLIC.                                                       
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
331 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
THE SUN SHOULD FINALLY RETURN WITH WARMER TEMPS FOR THE REGION. WATER           
VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING           
EAST OF THE REGION. THE LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAVE HUNG TOUGH THIS WEEKEND           
WERE STILL OVER PARTS OF NM AND THE AREAS SW OF THE PECOS RIVER. A              
ZONAL FLOW WAS NOTED 700MB AND UP...WITH A LIGHT SE FLOW OVER MOST OF           
THE AREA. ANALYSIS AT 850 AND 700MB INDICATED AN INVERSION AROUND               
700MB...WITH TEMPS FROM AROUND 850 TO 780 BELOW FREEZING AT 10/00Z.             
THE MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. THE MESO-ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWED TEMPS            
ALOFT FINALLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. WITH SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY               
SKIES...TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.            
LOCAL NORMS OF 80F FOR A HIGH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE REACHED TODAY.               
HAVE LEFT PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE COUNTIES TODAY AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE             
AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. WARMER FOR             
WED AND AFTERWARD WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS. LEE-             
SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WED...THUS HAVE WORDED ALL LOCALITIES               
EXPECT FOR THE SOUTH IN THE 15-25 RANGE.                                        
A DIGGING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST KEEPS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF           
SHOWERS OR T-STORMS IN THE PICTURE...THURS AND REMAINDER FRIDAY. WENT           
MORE WITH THE NGM/AVN WITH THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AFTER 24             
HOURS. THE AVN AT 72 HOURS...AND THE NOGAPS INDICATED THE DRYLINE MAY           
BE MAKING AN APPEARANCE BEFORE THE WEEKEND. STILL WAITING TO REVIEW             
THE NEW MRF BEFORE MAKING BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. LOOKS LIKE               
ANOTHER BIG COOLDOWN AFTER THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.                              
TEMPS BELOW WENT CLOSER WITH THE WARMER NGM. THE AVN IS SOMETIMES TOO           
SLOW TO WARM UP THE LOWER LAYERS.                                               
MAF  64/43/72/49    0001                                                        
LSA  63/41/70/48    0001                                                        
E41  66/43/73/50    0001                                                        
6R6  65/48/74/52    0001                                                        
MRF  63/37/66/45    0001                                                        
CNM  67/44/73/49    0002                                                        
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
606 AM MST TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE             
NEVADA AND ARIZONA BEFORE STALLING OUT TONIGHT. BECAUSE SUBTROPICAL             
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL             
CONTINUE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON. THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL HALT ONCE THE            
FRONT STALLS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON            
WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL THEN FINALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE                 
ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                     
DISCUSSION...DOING SOME ONE-THE-FLY REWORKING OF THE ZONES AS                   
SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGIN TO FILL IN TO OUR SW AND HEAD THIS WAY. WITH SO             
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE CWA, IT'S NOW             
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE ENOUGH SUN TO GET DECENT               
CAPES. EVEN IF WE DO GET A LITTLE SUN, 0-3KM SHEAR OF 50-60KTS NEEDS            
AT LEAST 1000J/KG OF CAPE TO GET MINI SUPERCELLS GOING, AND BOTH THE            
06Z MESOETA AND 09Z RUC2 BARELY HAVE CAPES ABOVE ZERO. PLENTY OF                
ISENTROPIC LIFT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, AND UPPER DIVERGENCE           
WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY, THOUGH, SO ONCE              
THE SUN COMES UP, SHOWERS COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BEYOND WHAT             
WE HAVE ALREADY. HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND THE SPS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE            
THREAT, SWITCH TO AREAL TERMS FOR ALL ZONES, AND LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH            
IN THE W. PYTLAK                                                                
.TWC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
930 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
.DISC...RUC AND LATEST GOES-8 IMAGERY SUPPORT THE WRAP AROUND PRECIP            
ACROSS MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS WINDING DOWN AS WE HEAD INTO THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS.  BASED ON 88D IMAGERY AND SNOW REPORTS...I BUMPED              
UP SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS 8/9/12/13.  I                   
ADJUSTED THE ZONE SPLITS A BIT AND PUT MEZ20 WTH 21 AND 22 AS                   
WRAP AROUND WRKS INTO MEZ20 AND SHUD BE HVY ENUF TO RESULT IN MIXED             
RA AND SN OR JUST PLAIN SHSN THIS PM.  WHAT SUN IS FOUND OVR SE NH              
AND FAR SW ME SHUD BE REPLACED BY BKN CLOUDS AS HEATING ALOWS SC DECK           
TO FILL IN.  NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.  WRKZFP/WRKCWF AVBL ON "A".              
.CSTAL WTRS...BASED ON OBS AND FCST TRENDS WIL DOWNGRADE THE GLW TO             
SCA WTH THE MID MORNING UPDATE.  SOME COSMETIC CHANGES WERE ALSO                
MADE TO LATER PERIODS.                                                          
.GYX...SCA.                                                                     
ES                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
945 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WESTERN MD... WV PANHANDLE AND                   
NORTHWESTERN VA AS UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO MOVE                    
NORTHEAST.  06Z ETA AND 09Z RUC SHOWING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE FROM            
THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 850 MB ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA...             
SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA TO CLEAR OUT.                     
KCCX/KLWX RADARS HAVE LIGHT RAIN MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN TOWARD             
NORTHEAST MD... AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES            
FOR THE BALTIMORE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.                        
12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 50S...              
THOUGH MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD                
PUSH TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT. RAISED HIGH TEMPS WITH                  
EARLIER UPDATE ACROSS THE CHO/SHD AREA. FWC/LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWING               
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S DOWN THERE... AND WITH NEARLY FULL SUN THIS                
MORNING THEY RISEN QUICKLY ENOUGH THAT MID 60S IS REACHABLE. HIGHS              
AROUND 60 EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA... THOUGH CLOUDINESS AND            
RAIN MAY BE A PROBLEM FOR AREAS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE.               
KLWX VWP SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS AT 3000 FT... AND NOW THAT SUN                   
STARTING TO APPEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTING MIXING TO WORK               
THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                
RAISED WINDS WITH EARLIER UPDATE... AND WILL MENTION GUSTY WITH THE             
WORDING THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SCA FOR TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD PORTION OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.                
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
935 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                      
RAIN/SNOW SHWRS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR NYS ZNS ATTM IN ASSOCN              
WITH S/WV COMING ARND LARGE UPPER LO OVER NEW ENGLAND.  LATEST                  
MESO-ETA/RUC RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z MODEL SUITE IN SHIFTING               
THIS WV E OF THE RGN THIS AFTN.  ALSO...HGTS SHUD START TO RISE AS              
UPPER VORTEX CONTS TO LIFT NWD.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME                         
DRYING/STABILIZATION BY 18Z.                                                    
PRIND ARE THAT ONE MORE PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRUSH AT LEAST NRN PTNS             
OF THE FA LTR TDY INTO THIS EVE.  HOWEVER...SUPPLY OF MOIST/INSTAB              
SHUD BE LESS BY THIS TIME.  ONLY WDLY SCTD LGT PCPN AT WORST IS                 
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FEATURE.                                                  
FOR THIS UPDATE...WILL KEEP SKIES M/CLDY NRN SXNS AND MAINTAIN LO               
CHC POPS FOR -SHRA/-SHSN.  INTERVALS OF SUN STILL LOOKS OK FOR THE              
TWIN TIERS WITH A STRAY FLRY/SPRINKLE.  ACRS THE WYO                            
VLY/POCONOS/SULLIVAN CNTY...A TREND TWDS P/SNY SEEMS FINE.                      
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO MAX TEMP FCST.                                        
WRK ZNS ARE OUT.  FINALS COMING BY 10.                                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1041 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2000                                                     
WINDS INCREASING AS FORECAST. WILL REMOVE THE TEMPORAL WORDING IN               
MOST GROUPS, AND BOOST WINDS IN NW TO 20-30 AS VICI PROFILER                    
CONTINUES WITH 35-40KT JUST OFF SURFACE AND LATEST RUC PROGS A VERY             
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. MESONET WINDS CURRENTLY                
SHOWING SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT IN SEVERAL AREAS, SO WILL ADJUST TO             
S-SW - ALTHOUGH RUC INDICATES THEY SHOULD RETURN MORE TO S BY LATE              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS S ZONES AND INTO CENTRAL OK POSE A BIT OF A                
PROBLEM IN TERMS OF HOW TO WORD SKY CONDITIONS. WILL RESORT TO                  
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CENTRAL AND S, AND STICK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR PTLY          
CLOUDY IN THE N.                                                                
24                                                                              
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok