####018004833####
FXUS63 KAPX 122015
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDING IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF MICHIGAN THROUGH THE COMING WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING BOUTS OF CLOUDY SKIES WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
QUITE SEASONABLE. SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/...TONIGHT

PRIMARY FCST CONCERN HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINS 
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...THE CONSEQUENCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS 
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH THRU THE CWA. EARLIER FLARE UP OF 
SNOW ACRS THE REGION TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE/SUPPORT 
ALOFT...WITH RADAR RETURNS SLOWLY WANING BUT BRIEFLY BECOMING 
ENHANCED VIA UPSLOPE REGIME INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERALL...
ANTICIPATE AN AXIS OF LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME 
AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH 
RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO ONTARIO. LAKE INFLUENCE PRETTY MUCH MINIMAL 
GIVEN DELTA T'S ONLY PUSHING 10C AT BEST...BUT PERHAPS A SMALL 
COMPONENT AS H9 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT AROUND -11C AS COLDER AIR BLEEDS IN 
FROM THE NORTH. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY 
REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF HEAVIER ALIGNMENT OF SNOW EXISTS 
VIA PERSISTENT SFC-900MB CONVERGENCE INTO THE HIGH SPOTS COUPLED 
WITH APPROACH OF CHANNELED VORT/DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT...BUT 
PROBABLY NOTHING WORSE THAN A LOCALIZED INCH. OTHERWISE...A 
DWINDLING TREND IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE NIGHT 
AS VEERING SFC-800MB FLOW ALLOWS MUCH DRIER AIR TO ENTER THE 
PICTURE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 20S SOUTH TO SINGLE DIGITS NORTH 
LOOK JUST FINE.

HYDROLOGY...WILL GO AHEAD AND CAN THE FLOOD WATCH ACRS NORTHEAST 
LOWER AS LATEST HYDROGRAPHS SHOW MOST LEVELS STEADYING OUT AND ANY 
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAPIDLY DECLINING.

LAWRENCE

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 315 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND

FRIDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN LAKES 
FRIDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WASH 
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLURRY THEME ACROSS 
MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS TROUGH DISSIPATION OCCURS. HIGH 
PRESSURE NOSING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER SHOULD ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL DAMPEN OUT 
AS IT APPROACHES CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SAME 
TIME...A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE 
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.  THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS FROM BOTH THE 
NAM/GFS ARE NOW PUSHING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES INTO NORTHERN 
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL 
VORT AXIS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN.  
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS AS MUCH...FOCUSING INSTEAD MUCH 
FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY 
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER.  THIS IS NOTHING MORE 
THAN A NUISANCE EVENT BUT STILL LIKELY WORTHY OF A LOW POP.     

LATER PERIODS (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BENIGN LATE 
WINTER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH MODELS REFUSING TO BUDGE FROM 
MAINTENANCE OF SUPPRESSED STORM TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS.  SOME 
NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT POSSIBILITIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT 
OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL PATTERN.  HIGHS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 
15 DEGREES.   12Z RUNS NOW SHOWING POSSIBLE LARGER STORM POTENTIAL 
WITH PHASING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSELY GROUPED ON 
SHOWING PCPN OVER THE AREA.  WAY TOO FAR OUT TO GET TOO CUTE WITH 
THIS SYSTEM...AS MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY UNRELIABLE WITH PHASING 
SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER RANGE.  WILL PAINT GENERIC 30 POPS OVER THE 
AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK AND LET LATER MODEL RUNS REFINE THE DETAILS. 

JK 

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1239 PM/...VALID FOR 18Z TAFS

EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING
HOURS UNDER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED THRU
LATE AFTN UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BLEEDS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

LAWRENCE 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

####018002125####
FXUS64 KOUN 122018
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA/NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL
THIN SOME FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.  

WEAK BOUNDARY THAT MOVED INTO PARTS OF NW/NC OKLAHOMA TODAY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.  AS THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FRIDAY... A DRYLINE WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VERY WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE DRYLINE 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE FA BY 9 PM FRIDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE FA AS
MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF THE WAVE.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH AS
THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST.  

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.








&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  69  29  46 /   0  10   0  10 
HOBART OK         42  66  25  46 /  10   0   0   0 
WICHITA FALLS TX  46  72  32  53 /  10   0  10  10 
GAGE OK           33  49  20  43 /  10  10   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     45  63  26  43 /  10  10   0  10 
DURANT OK         49  67  37  53 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING 
     FOR OKZ021>023-033>038-044.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING 
     FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SIX


####018005565####
FXUS61 KCLE 122018
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 PM EST THU FEB 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT THEN WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST INTO KENTUCKY EARLY ON SATURDAY...MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL STATIONS AROUND THE REGION STILL HAVING WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40KT. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL
EXTEND WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7PM. TROUGH LINGERING BACK ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE AND MARGINALLY COLD AIR AT 8H...ABOUT
-10C...WILL CAUSE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY
LOW INVERSION AND SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL BUT STILL
CARRIED LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...DIMINISHING AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY ON SATURDAY. NAM CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
NORTH WITH LOW MOVING IT THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN OHIO. GFS ECMWF
AND SHREF HAVE A WEAKER LOW AND TRACK IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.
WENT ALONG WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. STILL WENT WITH LIKELY
POPS SOUTH AND WEST WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOWFALL. WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK BELIEVE PRECIP WILL
BE ALL SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN START TO BUILD BACK IN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST. SHOULD SEE
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST WITH A NWLY FLOW AT THE
LOWER LEVELS AND 8H TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY 
AND TO THE EAST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS 
EXPECT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL 
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS WELL.  THE STORM 
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. 

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY SETTING UP A NORTH TO 
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLD POOL IS 
NOT EXPECTED TO BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST MONTH 
AND A HALF. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. UPPER 
LEVEL JET STREAM WILL SUPPORT THESE TEMPERATURES AS NEARLY ZONAL 
FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.  WEAK TROUGHS WILL SLIDE 
BY ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL NOT DEVELOP THE DEEP DIGGING EAST COAST 
TROUGH UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE PATTERN STILL REMAINS 
PROGRESSIVE AND TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER 
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEARING AREA ROTATED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING HOURS BUT WAS
QUICKLY FILLING BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS CLOUDS ROTATE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. CLOUD DECK ALTERNATING BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERIE WHERE SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD FALL DURING THE NIGHT DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 6
MILES. VFR RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR ERIE
VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WESTERLY DIRECTION. 

.OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING VFR WEATHER LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO
SATURDAY BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOWBELT THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY LATE MONDAY FOR WIDESPREAD VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
PER COORDINATION WITH BUF HAVE DECIDED TO LET GALE WARNING GO AS 
IS.  WINDS APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING A COUPLE KNOTS PER HOUR AND THIS 
PACE SHOULD PICK UP AFTER SUNSET.  BY MORNING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY 
LIGHT FROM THE WEST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY 
WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT 
INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH.  WINDS WILL 
BECOME NORTH BEHIND THE LOW AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON 
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KUBINA