SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                   
230 PM MST WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT             
AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A RATHER VIGOROUS           
STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM CALIFORNIA             
DURING FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND.  A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES FOR THE HALLOWEEN                
WEEKEND...WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.                                  
DISCUSSION...SOME CU/SC DEVELOPED THRU HIGHER TERRAIN OF ZONES 19/30            
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER RATHER STRONG BACKWASH FLOW WITH LOW NEAR NM               
BORDER. RUC INDICATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS FAR W AS PHX AND CGZ.             
WILL CONTINUE SHORT TERM FCST TRENDS WITH ETA PUTTING VORT MIN OVR              
ERN AZ BY 06Z.  TEMPS DROPPING OFF FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...CLEAR               
SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.                                                           
ETA PUTS VIGOROUS S/WV ALONG NRN CALIFORNIA COAST BY 12Z AND JUST A             
BIT DEEPER THAN PREV RUNS. TROF TO GRAZE TUS CWFA LATE THURSDAY OR              
FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN GRADIENTS BY LATE FRIDAY. SPEEDS            
AT 850-700 MB TO RUN 15-25KTS WITH BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY WINDY...              
SPCLY IN ZONES 34 AND 35.  HUGE H5 RIDGE TO BRING US VERY WARM WX               
FOR WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS TO STAY BLO RECORDS.  SIPPLE                   
.TWC...NONE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KFGZ 272122  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
825 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL RESULT             
IN CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS.  MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE                 
UPPER TEENS OVER COLDER NORTHERN LOCATIONS TO AROUND 30 ALONG THE               
DOWNEAST COAST.                                                                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD ANOTHER FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM FROM                
CENTRAL CANADA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY                  
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN MAINE.             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY PROVIDING            
DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                                      
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE AREAS WEATHER                  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARMUP.                       
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:                                                           
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  LATEST                 
PRESSURE TENDENCY ANALYSES SHOW PRESSURES STILL RISING OVER THE                 
REGION.  SATL PICS INDICATE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.  WITH GOOD                      
SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT EXPECT NIL CLDS...WILL THUS CHANGE "MOSTLY                 
CLEAR" TO JUST PLAIN OLD "CLEAR".  WINDS HAVE DE-COUPLED RESULTING              
IN LIGHT WINDS.  DEW POINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NEAR THE                 
CANADIAN BORDER TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE COAST.  ON A NIGHT LIKE                    
TONIGHT WOULD EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN MIN TEMPS. ETA FCST OVERNIGHT              
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH...THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH DEWPTS.              
PREVIOUS MIN FCST NEAR 20 WILL COVER ANY MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS...             
SO EITHER 15 TO 20 OR NEAR 20 WOULD WORK.  IN FACT CURRENT MIN FCST             
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE MINS ON THE DOWNEAST COAST TO BE               
SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN THE CURRENT MID 20S FCST.  SINCE THE COAST IS              
CURRENTLY GROUPED WITH THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST ZONES HAVE BUMPED MINS             
TO 25 TO 30. HOWEVER WOULD NOT OPPOSE SPLITTING THE COAST FROM THE              
INTERIOR WITH MINS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 ALONG             
THE COAST.                                                                      
CWF: WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE N...CAA SHOULD KEEP WINDS UP FOR A                 
WHILE YET...AND IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RUC FCST.  WOULD RECOMMEND               
LEAVING 10 TO 20 KTS UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK WHEN THE CENTER OF THE               
HIGH CRESTS NEAR THE COAST.                                                     
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
LULOFS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KGYX 280027  me                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE                                              
1035 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE WINDS...CLOUDS AND TEMPS.                      
01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED SFC FRONT FROM WEST END OF LK SUPERIOR               
THROUGH NW WI. TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS PRODUCING                  
VIGOROUS WAA AND STRONG LLJ. KMQT 88D INDICATED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K               
FT. KIWD INDICATED GUSTS AOA 30 KTS SINCE 0Z. KMQT AND KSAW ALSO IN             
THE 15-25 KT RANGE. 21Z RUC CAPTURES WIND TREND BRINGING 50 KT LLJ              
INTO CNTRL UPR MI AT 06Z AND TO NE LK SUPERIOR BY 09Z.                          
FORTUNATELY...INCREASING STABILITY WITH WAA (H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO                 
AROUND 12C) SHOULD WILL KEEP VERY STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING SFC.               
HOWEVER... WILL STILL NEED TO BOOST WINDS A NOTCH GIVEN SFC OB                  
TRENDS.                                                                         
STRONG 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT ONLY PRODUCING BKN AC AS HIGH COND              
PRES DEFICITS PREVAIL BLO 600 MB...PER LCL 00Z SNDGS. ALTHOUGH FRONT            
FCST NEAR NEAR CNTRL UPR MI BY 12Z WITH CAA IN ITS WAKE. MILD TEMP              
FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                      
.MQT...GALE WARNING E LAKE SUPERIOR.                                            
JLB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 280213  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE                                              
1211 AM EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                     
H5 RDG OVR WRN GRT LKS REGION DRFTG SLOWLY EWRD W/RUC DEPICTED WK               
NVA. LOW LVL MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO PERSISTENT AND LOWERING 950 MB                
INVERSION SHOWN ON APX AND GRB 12Z SOUNDINGS.  GOES VIS/IR LOOPS                
SHOW BKN MID AND HIGH LVL CLDS OVR ERN 2/3 LAKE SUPERIOR AND SCT-BKN            
LOW-MID LEVEL CLDS OVR WEST AND CENTRAL UPR MI.  LOW LEVEL                      
INSTABILITY OVR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH H8 -1 TO -4C AIR OVR 7-8C                
WATER SFC.  OVR LAND...MOISTURE BEING SQUEEZED IN LOW LEVELS AS                 
INVERSION SINKS DURG EARLY AFTN...AND INSOLATION...RETARDED BY BKN              
MID LVL CLDS...GRADUALLY ERODING THE PATCHY MORNING STRATUS IN                  
CENTRAL UPR.  RUC SNDGS MAINTAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ABV 12KFT                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                                          
WK SE CYCLONIC SFC FLOW OVR UPR WITH MDT 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL              
HELP MAINTAIN CLDS THIS AFTN.                                                   
ZONE UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING.  AFTN MAX TEMPS REMAIN ON                
TRACK WITH 430 AM ZONE PACKAGE.  WILL KEEP SFC WINDS BTWN SOUTH AND             
SOUTHEAST.                                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JP                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 271510  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
700 AM EDT EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                  
COMINGS AND GOINGS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NECESSITATES AN UPDATE HERE.             
AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST CWA...LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS                  
SPREADING INLAND IN THUMB AND MACOMB COUNTY. LATEST RUC INDICATES               
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN THUMB COUNTIES AND            
INTO LAKE ST CLAIR UNTIL AROUND 12Z. RECENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE                 
INDICATE THAT LAKE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP...AND WITH CYCLONIC FLOW              
ON THE WANE...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE.                                    
HAVE ISSUED ZONE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. NORTHWEST ZONE            
NOW CALLED MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...WHILE LAKE ZONES CARRY VARIABLE                 
CLOUDINESS EARLY WITH TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SUNNY. EXCEPTION                     
NORTHEAST THUMB WHERE WILL CONTINUE PARTLY SUNNY.                               
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 270834  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                     
CLEAR SKIES WITH SERLY SURFACE WINDS.  LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES               
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST                
AREA.  AFTERNOON HIGHS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN WRN AND CENTRAL             
PORTIONS.  WARM FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE ERN MN AND W CENTRAL WI            
UNTIL LATE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND STRONG INVERSIONS...AFTERNOON               
HIGHS WILL BE SURPRESSED SOME.                                                  
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 271518  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
900 PM EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
LOWS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS EVENING BUT RECENT 3.9 SAT             
PICS SHOW A RAPID BREAK UP TO THE CLOUDS OVR ERN NY WITH A SLOWER               
TREND OVER W CNTRL NY AND NE PA.  RUC SHOWS MUCH DRIER LOW LVL AIR              
TO MOVE INTO CWA OVRNGT SO EXPECT THIS CLRING TREND TO CONT.  LOW               
LVL WINDS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING MORE WLY LATER TNGT WHICH WILL HELP             
WITH THE CLRING.  HWVR OVR NERN PA LOW CLDS APPEAR MUCH THICKER ON              
SAT PICS AND NOT REALLY SEEING TOO MUCH EROSION OVR SRN CWA.                    
THERFORE WILL HOLD ONTO LOW CLDS A LITTLE BIT LONGER FOR NE PA ZNS.             
DESPITE THE LINGERING CLDS STILL THINK OVRNGT MINS LOOK GOOD GIVEN              
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS...WE SHOULD DROP FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE CLDS CLR OUT.           
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 280046  ny                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                     
...CLOUDS/TEMPS AND WIND AFTERNOON FORECAST CONCERNS...                         
SFC LO ANALYZED NEAR KABR ATTM WITH TROF/OCCLUDED FNT EXTENDING NWD             
THRU ERN ND BTWEEEN DVL AND GFK. EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID/HI CLOUD                 
PUSHING INTO ND CWA THIS AM AS INTENSE H7 WAA AS DEPICTED BY LATEST             
RUC MODEL PROVIDES LIFT. SLOWER MOVEMENT TO FNT CONTINUES TO BE FCST            
PBLM...AS SFC FEATURE IN SD HANGS IT UP...WITH RUC NOW INDICATING               
CLOSED H7 LOW CENTER TO BE JUST S OF MOT AT 18Z.                                
DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LAG WELL BEHIND IN THE POST-FRONTAL                
ATMOSPHERE...WITH RA/SN IN ERN MT BUT LITTLE PRECIP REPORTED IN ND.             
MAIN EFFECT OF BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA THIS AFTN SHUD BE WIND SHIFT TO              
GUSTY N WIND AS NOW ONGONG IN DVL. CLOUD COVER AND INCOMING CAA SHUD            
KEEP NW CWA COOLEST THIS AFTN AS H85 2C LINE GETS TO DVL BY 21Z WITH            
LARGE GRADIENT TO +14C NR FFM. GUD SW FLO ALOFT IN SW CWA WILL                  
CONTINUE TO IMPEDE PROGRESS OF FNT AND PROVIDE SOMEWHAT OF A DRY                
SLOT IN THIS PART OF CWA SO WILL STAY MSUNNY THERE FOR AWHILE LONGER.           
PLAN ON IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS A BIT IN S/SE CWA AND BUMPING UP               
TEMPS A NOTCH. MAY ALSO LOWER VALUES A TAD LOWER IN FAR NW CWA WHERE            
THICKER CLOUDS AND CAA COULD TEMPER RISES SOMEWHAT...WITH LATEST                
LAMP ONLY GIVING UPPER 40S IN THAT AREA FOR AFTN. STILL AGREE WITH              
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MOIST BLO H7 WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR E                 
BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLO TURNS N AND SHUNTS IT SOUTH...SO NO MENTION OF             
PRECIP THIS AFTN...EVEN THO GUD MOIST CONVERGECNE AND U/L DIVERGENCE            
ARE PRESENT. WINDS ON TARGET FOR INCREASING FROM THE NNW BY AFTN SO             
NO CHANGES THERE.                                                               
UPDATE OUT BY 1030 AM CDT.                                                      
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 270833  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
905 AM EDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
UPR TROF/VORT MAX MVS WELL EAST OF AREA THIS MRNG. A COUPLE WEAK                
TROFS/FNTS THRU NY STATE AND NR PA WITH GOOD AMT CLDS TRAPPED                   
AGAINST INVRSN FM ARND 5K-7K. ALSO SOME LOWER CLDS FAR N AND NW                 
DUE FLOW OFF LKS. SEEMS TO BE SOME ROTATION IN CLDS CNTRD NR NE                 
PA AND RUC DOES SHOW BRIEF 850 LOW THERE ERLY MRNG. VERY DIFFICULT TO           
PROG THIS CLDNS BUT DOES SEEM TO BE SHEARING OFF/EVAPRTG S OF UNV-ABE           
LINE. WITH CAN SFC HI MVG E TDA EXPCT INCRSG SUBSDNC AND DRYING AND             
ANY MRNG OR ERLY AFTN CLDS SHUD DCRS DURG AFTN. ALSO LOW LVL WINDS              
SHUD VEER TO N OR NE LATER THIS AFTN...EXCLUDING OUR CWA FM ANY                 
LK CLDS. SO WILL KEEP PTLY SUNNY FCST MORE NRN SCTNS THIS AFTN AND              
MOSTLY SUNNY SRN AREAS.                                                         
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN CURRENT FCST.                                              
PHI...NONE.                                                                     
NPC                                                                             
 pa                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
942 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
00Z 50H ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH                 
AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS.             
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO            
NEAR THE CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM...NEAR KCVS ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION          
WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE           
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ATTM BUT THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED              
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/VORTICITY MAXIMUM                
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  WILL RETAIN THE                   
MENTION OF POSSIBLE SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.            
WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO                
BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH               
PLAINS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING.                                        
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
TINSLEY                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEPZ 280235  tx                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
907 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
SFC CDFNT AT 00Z ANALYZD ACROSS CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS. SFC TROUGH               
EXTENDED S FM W GCK TO E KDHT WITH WEAK WV REFLECTED ALONG IT SW                
KDHT. PRESSURE RISES ON ORDER OF 6MB/3HR OCCURING BEHIND FNT ALONG              
WITH 20KT+ WINDS. EXPECT FROPA IN WRN OK PNHDL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT PER            
21Z RUC WITH STEADY SWRD PROGRESS AND OUT OF ALL BUT SE FA BY                   
DAYBREAK. AHEAD OF FNT...PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING N ACROSS ERN           
ZNS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH LIFTING E ACROSS W TX. IN ADDITION...A FEW            
LTG STRIKES ALONG NM BORDER W KLBB WITHIN THE HR. THIS AMID PLUME OF            
HIER THTE AIR WITH CONNECTIONS TO TROPICS. A FEW SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF           
THE QUESTION ACROSS SE ZNS AS FAVORABLE DYNAMICS CROSS LATER TONIGHT            
SO MAY ADD MENTION THERE THOUGH EXPECT THEM TO BE ISOLD. MAY ALSO               
NEED TO BUMP WIND SPEEDS UP SOME WITH FROPA OTWS CURRENT FCST IN GOOD           
SHAPE.                                                                          
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 280204 AMD  tx                                  

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
830 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S NEARLY SOUTHERN HALF              
OF CWA. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE          
OVER REGION TONIGHT. NORTHEAST ZONES WILL HAVE SLOWER INCREASE IN               
DEWPOINTS. WILL MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON MINS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...           
THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE ON TRACK.                             
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
37/46                                                                           
CLL BB 061/083 063/083 064 0-12                                                 
IAH BB 063/083 062/083 064 0001                                                 
GLS BB 068/079 070/080 070 0001                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 280126  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
942 PM CDT WED OCT 27 1999                                                      
00Z 50H ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH                 
AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO FAR WEST TEXAS.             
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO            
NEAR THE CENTER OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM...NEAR KCVS ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION          
WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO THE           
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ATTM BUT THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED              
IN THE PAST HALF HOUR.  WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/VORTICITY MAXIMUM                
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  WILL RETAIN THE                   
MENTION OF POSSIBLE SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TONIGHT.            
WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE APPEARS TO                
BE ON TRACK ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH               
PLAINS BETWEEN 09Z-12Z THURSDAY MORNING.                                        
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
TINSLEY                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEPZ 280235  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
930 AM EDT THU OCT 28 1999                                                      
CURRENT FCST LOOKS FINE...SO WILL MAKE NO CHGS TO IT.                           
BAND OF CI APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT AS IT APPCHS FROM THE W ATTM.             
LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS THIS TREND WILL CONT AS BEST UL SUPPORT AND          
MOIST CONTENT STAY UP IN CANADA THIS AFTN.  THIS WILL LEAVE LOTS OF             
SUN.                                                                            
12Z SNDGS WITH EXPECTED WAA AT 850 MB TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT PORTRAY MAX            
TEMPS QUT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE/RE ADVERTISING.                                    
WRK ZNS OUT.  FINAL PACKAGE COMING SHORTLY.                                     
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JUREWICZ                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 280728  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
945 AM EDT THU OCT 28 1999                                                      
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN ON TAP. DID                   
NOTICE THAT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE            
12Z MODEL SUITE IN AMPLIFYING THE H5 RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH...AND WILL            
LIKELY PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAT WEDNESDAY/S            
MAXES. CONSIDERING THAT THIS WAS FACTORED INTO THE ZONE FORECAST                
OVERNIGHT...NO CHANGES ARE IN STORE.                                            
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMEG 280740  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
330 AM CDT THU OCT 28 1999                                                      
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS             
HOUR PER LATEST WV IMAGERY. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE                  
POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM THE BEST OF ALL THE MODELS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS             
AND A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYS EXTEND ACROSS THE CWA IN           
A SW-NE ORIENTATION...ALTHOUGH SKIES ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE              
CWA ARE CLEARING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIFT OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY.             
AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER WEAK FRONT EXTENDED FROM NE NM...ACROSS THE           
TX PANHANDLE...ACROSS KS...NWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE RISES           
BEHIND THE FRONT WERE DECENT EARLIER DURING THE NIGHT...BUT LATEST              
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE PRESSURE CHANGES ARE STABILIZING                  
QUICKLY. FRONT SHOULD LOSE MUCH OF ITS SOUTHWARD DRIVE THROUGHOUT THE           
MORNING. MODEL PROGS WANT TO BRING THE FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTH                
PLAINS TODAY AND WASH IT OUT AND TURN IT BACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD                  
TOMORROW. PER THE LATEST TRENDS...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. A WEAK                 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW AS THE              
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE SWRN US. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD                   
APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE            
IS QUITE A BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN THE LAST. MODELS DO NOT WANT TO               
BRING IN MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT I SUSPECT THERE WILL BE           
A BIT MORE TO WORK WITH THAN IS PROGGED. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE               
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS               
THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. IN FACT...FROM A DYNAMIC                  
STANDPOINT...THIS COULD BE A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER. THE ONLY                  
LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAY             
BE TOO LOW TO GET ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GOING. WILL           
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE ON THAT ONE.                                               
AT THE SURFACE THE MODELS BRING IN ANOTHER FRONT...A PAC FRONT...               
WHICH SHOULD START MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO                  
SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS A PAC FRONT THIS WILL NOT BRING A               
MAJOR DEEP FREEZE...BUT IT WILL COOL THINGS DOWN AT LEAST 10-15                 
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A           
CHANCE OF RAIN.  DJK                                                            
MAF 81/53/82  000                                                               
LSA 78/51/80  000                                                               
E41 82/52/83  -00                                                               
6R6 82/53/82  -00                                                               
MRF 77/43/79  -00                                                               
CNM 80/52/82  000                                                               
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 280817  tx                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
145 PM MDT THU OCT 28 1999                                                      
FIRST SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON TONIGHT AND                 
FRIDAY FOR NORTHERN UTAH MTNS...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CO MTNS.                   
IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM INTO THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT WITH TROF PASSAGE                
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  SYSTEM STILL SPLITTING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION             
STAYING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIVES THRU              
THE 4-CORNERS FRIDAY MORNING AND CLOSES OFF IN WEST TEXAS BY                    
SATURDAY.  ETA THE MODEL FOLLOWED THOUGH THE 17Z RUC IS FASTER.                 
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT THRU THE UINTAS THIS EVENING AND THRU ALL                  
BUT SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z.  NOT A CLEAR-CUT SCENARIO WITH JET LIFT              
STAYING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALSO NOT                  
IMPRESSIVE.                                                                     
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTNS:  TIME SECTIONS SHOW DEEP OMEGA ENDING                
FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT. INSTABILITY SHOWERS FRIDAY TO           
ADD TO ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY NORTH SLOPES.  OROGRAPHIC SNOW MODEL                
PRODUCES 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT WITH SOME 50% ADDITIONAL DUE TO DYNAMIC             
LIFT.  3-4 ADDITIONAL INCHES FRIDAY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.  THE                  
CRITICAL 12 INCH WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN                     
OROGRAPHIC FAVORED LOCATIONS...AND SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST                      
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON WILL ISSUE A WARNING.  SNOW LEVEL TO             
START AT 9000 AND DROP TO 6000...7000 CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...BY                    
MORNING.                                                                        
SOUTHERN MTNS: LIFT LOOKS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR THE SAN JUANS                
AND MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT FAVOR NW FLOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.                  
STRONGEST FRONTAL FORCING STAYS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL ISSUE            
AND ADVISORY FOR THE ELK AND UNCOMPAHGRE MTNS BUT NOT THE SAN JUANS             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
MOISTURE AND LIFT QUICKLY EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD                    
ADVECTION IN NORTH FLOW AS 90 KT JET TRANSLATES.  WIND AND WIND                 
CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WARMING              
TREND BEGINS SUNDAY.                                                            
.GJT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR CO NRN AND CNTRL             
MTNS... CO ZONES 4/9/10. SNOW ADVY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TONIGHT AND             
FRIDAY UT ZONE 23 CO ZONES 12/18.                                               
99/RAMEY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 281025 COR  co                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1055 AM MDT THU OCT 28 1999                                                     
ZONE FORECASTS UPDATED PRIMARILY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND TO               
PUT AFTERNOON WIND FORECASTS MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST RUC2                      
OUTPUT...WHICH HAS A FAST RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NORTHEASTERN            
PLAINS.  38                                                                     
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KABQ 281100  nm