FXUS04 KWBC 140632
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
131 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 14/1200 UTC THRU NOV 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

...SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS...

THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE
REGARDING THE STG MID/UPR LVL SYS FCST TO RMN QSTRNY OVR NWRN
OLD MEXICO THIS PD..AND ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT QPF-WISE
FM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.    BACKING OF THE
MID/UPR LVL FLO FM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS..AND
INCREASING SELY LLJ BRINGING IN HIER MSTR OFF THE GULF INTO THE
SAME REGION..WL SET UP WHAT WL BE A PROLONGED PD OF OVRRNG
RAINS MUCH OF THE AREA..WITH SOME HVY SNOWS LIKELY IN THE HIER
ELEVS OF NM.    THERE WON'T BE ANY SFC BNDRY AVBL TO FOCUS THE
HVIER RNFL ON OVR THE AREA..BUT THERE IS A REASONABLY WELL
DEFINED H85 BNDRY SETTING UP FM SWRN TX NNEWD TWDS THE WRN
PARTS OF OK..WITH BOTH THE ETA AND GFS IN AGREEMENT ON WHERE
THIS BNDRY WL BE.    THUS..HAVE USED THIS H85 BNDRY TO FOCUS THE
HVIEST RNFL AXIS.   GIVEN THAT THE LLJ WL STRENGTHEN TO 40KTS OR
HIER..BRINGING IN PWS BTWN 1.00-1.25 INCHES..XPC THAT SOME OF THE
RNFL DURG THE 2ND HALF OF THE PD WL BE LCLY HVY..ESP OVR WRN
TX/SERN NM..WITH LRG SCALE LIFT ALSO BEING AIDED BY PERSISTENT
DIFL ALOFT.    THE GFS QPF WAS JUST A LTL HIVER THAN THE ETA IN
WRN TX/SERN NM..AND DID LEAN TWDS THIS WETTER SOLN.    OTRW..A
RATHER LRG AREA OF MDT RAINS LIKELY RMNDR OF SRN NM AND PTNS OF
CNTRL TX AND SWRN OK.     ANOTHER RNFL MAX LIKELY VCNTY OF THE
CNTRL/SRN TX CST..IN AN AREA OF PERSISTENT BNDRY LYR CNVGNC AND
STG INFLO OF VRY HI GULF MSTR.    CNVCTN HAS BLOSSOMED NICELY
PAST SVRL HRS IN THIS REGION..AND XPC THIS TREND TO PERSIST..WITH
MAYBE A SLGT NWD DRIFT TO THE CNVCTN DURG THE PD.   AGAIN..MDL
QPFS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT HERE..ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THE FCST.


...PAC NW...

THE GULF OF AK SYS HANDLED QUITE SIMILARLY BY THE MDLS
ALSO..WITH BOTH BRINGING IT JUST ABT TO THE PAC NW CST BY THE END
OF THE PD.   STRENGTHENING LOW LVL ONSHORE FLO..FNTL CNVGNC AND
DECENT HGT FALLS WL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING RNFL..AND
SOME HIER ELEV SNOWS..MUCH OF WRN WA INTO NWRN OR..ESP SAT
NGT.   THE ETA HAS THE SIGNIFICANT RNFL A LTL FARTHER SWD ALG THE
CST INTO NWRN OR THAN DOES THE GFS..AND LIKE THIS MORE SWD   
SOLN..SINCE EVEN THE GFS FCST OF GTR THAN 40KTS OF SWLY LLJ INTO
NWRN OR LTR SAT NGT WOULD SUPPORT A HVIER RNFL PATN LIKE THAT
OF THE ETA.   THUS..MANUAL QPF FOLLOWS THE ETA HERE..WITH THE
HVIEST RNFL OCCURRING OVR THE OLYMPICS..BUT SOME GTR THAN 0.50
INCH RAINS OCCURRING AS FAR S AS NWRN OR.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.01 541202 540189 536179 533175 532170 528165 525164 520153 
      517151 513149 510148 507150 505152 499162 493167 489168 
      488173 489179 492184 499190 504192 506194 510198 512202 
      515207 516212 515219 511219 501205 496201 492198 489195 
      484196 472202 468205 464207 457210 455214 453220 453227 
      446233 442234 440236 433242 429250 427259 428264 431268 
      438272 444272 448271 452272 451278 452285 457292 463298 
      468300 473301 482302 496301 500302 504300 510299 
 0.01 415072 414064 412059 410056 407054 404054 400057 396061 
      393064 390068 387072 386076 388079 392079 395078 400076 
      402072 404069 407072 410073 412073 415072 
 0.01 352091 357076 361066 364058 366048 370037 373028 376016 
      377000 379987 380975 382965 382960 381955 376951 368953 
      363955 356959 349964 338970 330973 325976 317979 310980 
      300980 297979 294977 291971 290964 290957 288952 285947 
      275939 267935 260934 253939 249945 244955 243966 246978 
      252988 259999 262010 263020 262026 260034 258039 254045 
      251051 250061 253071 255077 258082 264086 269087 275090 
      277098 277103 276111 279118 284120 289122 298123 303121 
      309118 312114 318108 324108 329110 337112 344109 348103 
      352091 
 0.01 318811 315805 312802 304797 296796 288793 271784 263783 
      257786 253789 250797 245805 242814 243820 248822 253814 
      256810 260807 268810 271813 274819 276830 277834 281837 
      287835 292832 301825 310821 315817 318813 318811 
 0.01 298918 297908 295899 293890 290881 288880 284882 282887 
      282896 282903 284908 288917 292921 295922 298918 
 0.25 534215 535208 534200 532190 529184 526174 519168 513165 
      508166 504169 503173 506179 510189 515195 519203 524210 
      529216 534215 
 0.25 521269 521260 520255 516243 515234 513229 506221 501210 
      497207 494208 488209 483208 480210 478212 479215 486222 
      488229 482231 478227 468230 465230 459232 452236 448238 
      446244 446250 450255 457257 465262 471266 473269 478274 
      480278 487287 496293 504294 512289 516283 
 0.25 364005 364997 363990 362986 359981 355979 348979 337981 
      328985 317989 309991 298992 292991 290988 287977 285963 
      280954 277951 273949 265948 259950 257953 255958 254964 
      255973 259982 263988 270995 275004 278013 280031 279042 
      277053 277062 280075 283083 287091 290094 294096 306094 
      316094 327093 333094 338092 342082 346071 349061 352051 
      355040 360021 363011 364005 
 0.50 519268 519265 518258 515248 514242 513235 512232 507227 
      504224 502219 500214 497211 494212 491217 489234 481233 
      478230 476229 469233 461235 457236 454241 456247 462249 
      467250 470253 475260 486278 492285 495287 500290 507289 
      510287 513282 517273 519268 
 0.50 526193 526192 524188 524185 522182 521179 520177 519175 
      516175 513175 510175 511180 512184 512185 515187 517190 
      518191 520195 521197 522198 524197 525196 526193 
 0.50 359002 359993 357988 353985 346985 334987 321992 311995 
      296998 292999 288002 287010 287018 290033 289050 288062 
      288068 290075 296083 301086 304087 307086 312084 318084 
      322085 330085 334083 336079 338071 337062 344055 346047 
      348041 349034 351028 355016 357008 359002 
 0.50 284978 284969 281960 278956 272953 268953 264955 260960 
      259966 261975 264981 267984 273988 279989 282984 284978 
 1.00 516267 516260 514252 511245 509236 501227 498221 494221 
      493226 494235 495239 493241 480235 475232 471236 471241 
      472244 477249 480254 484261 490274 494279 498283 502285 
      508283 511278 514273 516269 516267 
 1.00 305046 313048 321047 327044 334036 345019 352003 351997 
      349996 346996 332997 318000 305007 301012 301018 301028 
      300037 302044 305046 
 1.00 281975 281972 281969 280966 279964 278963 276961 275961 
      273960 270960 268962 266965 265967 265968 265971 266974 
      268977 270979 271980 273980 275981 278980 280979 280977 
      281975 
 1.50 513266 512251 506236 502232 498227 495225 495227 495236 
      498242 500246 498248 487240 483242 479236 475235 474239 
      477245 482249 485255 491269 494275 499279 504281 508276 
      513266 
 1.50 329007 320009 313014 309020 306029 307033 310036 313037 
      318035 329028 334024 338020 338015 335009 329007 
 1.50 278976 279972 278970 277967 276966 273965 271966 270968 
      270971 270974 272975 274976 275976 278976 278976 
 2.00 507273 509259 509255 507249 505241 500235 498237 501242 
      504250 504254 500255 493249 491247 487246 488256 492265 
      496273 502277 505276 507273 
 3.00 500270 500265 498262 497259 496258 493257 493258 493259 
      495263 495264 498267 500270 500270  
 
$$