FXUS04 KWBC 060726 PAA
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
325 AM EDT WED OCT 06 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 07/1200 UTC THRU OCT 08/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
     
...FINAL DAY 1...
...SYNOPSIS...
MDLS ARE IN GD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO RDGS ALNG THE E
AND W CSTS...WHILE A CNTRL ROCKIES TROF DEEPENS AND MOVS SLOLY
EWD. AT THE SFC A BNDRY IS DRAPED ACRS FL INTO THE GULF AND THEN
TURNS NWWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS BNDRY IS XPCD TO RETURN
NWD AS SFC HI PRES BCMS ANCHORED OVR THE ERN U.S. AND INCRSG
DEEP LYRD SRLY FLOW DVLPS THRU THE CNTRL U.S.. VRY DEEP MSTR
OVR THE GULF IS ALRDY ON THE MOV AND WL SPRD NWD...THEREBY
SUPPORTG SVRL DAYS OF HVY RNS OVR THE SCNTRL U.S..
...CSTL TX...
LATEST WV SATL IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE DEEP LYRD MSTR
SURGG NWD THIS MRNG...WITH SATL DERIVED PW LOOPS SHOWG VALUES
AOA TWO INCHES OVR MUCH OF THE SWRN GULF. MDLS ARE PICKG
UP NICELY ON THIS SURGE OF MSTR...BUT THE DIFFS IN QPF ARE QUITE
LRG. THE ETA IS THE MUCH WETTER MDL...WHILE THE GFS IS DRIER.
THINK THE GFS TRBLS ARE DUE TO THE MDL TAKG A SHRTWV INTO
THE CNTRL GULF BY THE END OF THE PD AND INTENSIFYG THIS FEATR.
THIS WOULD IN TURN RESULT IN MORE SUBSIDENCE OVR THE TX CSTL
AREAS. THIS FEATR HAS FEEDBACK SIGNATURES. THE CAN/NGM ARE VRY
WET...WHILE THE UKMET IS DRIER THAN THE GFS. MOST OF THE ENS
MEMBERS ARE FAVORG HVIER RNFL THRU SRN TX THIS PD. SFC ANLYS
SHOWS A BNDRY ACRS THE GULF AND INTO XTRM SRN TX WITH CNVCTN
DVLPG ERLY THIS MRNG ALNG/N OF THE BNDRY. WV IMAGERY SEEMS TO
SUPPORT A WEAK SHRTWV LIFTG NEWD FM SRN TX THAT IS HELPG TO
INCRS THE DEEP LYRD LIFT OVR THE BNDRY AND DRAW UPON THE DEEP
MSTR. THIS ACTVTY SHLD CONT LIFTG NEWD TDA AND WEAKEN THIS AFTN
AS IT MOVS AWAY FM THE STGR LOLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE. ADDTNL
CNVCTN SHLD FORM BY THIS AFTN OVR DEEP SRN TX. XPCT THE SHRTWV
TROF MOVG THRU WRN TX THIS MRNG TO PROGRESS EWD AND PROVIDE
DEEP LYRD LIFT. MDL SOUNDGS ARE XTRMLY MOIST AND UNSTBL WITH
PWS ABV TWO INCHES AND CAPES ARND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTN. HAVG A
HARD TIME DEPICTG THE PD OF HVIEST RNFL AS IT COULD OCCUR JUST
ABT ANY TIME...SO PAINTED MOD/HVY RNFL JUST ABT EVERY PD ACRS THE
REGION. THE AVBL MSTR COULD EASILY SUPPORT LCL TWO INCH PER HR
RNFL RATES THIS AFTN. GNRLY XPCT THE HVIEST RNFL TO BE BETWEEN
BRO/CRP WHERE THE TOUGNE OF DEEP MSTR WL BE AIMED THRU MUCH
OF THE PD. LGTR RNFL SHLD SPRD NEWD ALNG THE CST INTO SERN TX
AND SRN LA.
...CNTRL PLNS INTO THE SRN HI PLNS...
MDLS IN GNRLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OVRALL SCENARIO THRU
THIS REGION. THE POTENT VORT OVR ERN CO SHLD LIFT NEWD WITH A
SRHTWV TROF XTNDG SWD THRU THE SRN PLNS INTO TX. THESE SYS
SHLD WEAKEN AS THEY MOV INTO THE BACK OF THE ERN U.S. UPR RDG.
XPCT MOST OF THE PCPN ASSOCD WITH THESE FEATRS TO REMAIN
RATHER LGT THIS MRNG AS THEY MOV INTO A MORE STABLE LOLVL
AIRMASS. THE FOCUS WL MOV WWD THIS AFTN AS A STG VORT...NOW
DROPG THRU UT...DROPS INTO AZ/NM AND HELPS BACK THE LOLVL
FLOW...INCRS UPR LVL DIFL/DVRG AND PROVIDES DEEP LYRD LIFT INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HI PLNS. LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TNGT'S ACTVTY
WITH SERLY UPSLOPE PULLG DEEP MSTR NWWD AND LIFTG IT OVR THE
XPCD LEE SIDE TROF/FNT RNG OF THE SRN ROCKIES. MDL SOUNDGS
SHOW MOD INSTBLTY WITH CAPES ARND 1500 J/KG AND PWS ARND ONE
INCH. XPCT THE CNVCTN TO MOV EWD AND PSBLY ORGANIZED INTO
ANOTHER LINEAR MCS THAT WL PROGRESS EWD AND EXPAND IN LENGTH.
THE FORWARD SPEED SHLD PREVENT ANY LRG AREAS OF HVY RNS...BUT
LCLZD 1-2 INCH AMTS WL BE PSBL.
...PAC NW...
THE MEAN TROF JUST W OF THE REGION WL SHFT EWD AS SVRL MIDLVL
SHRTWVS TRACK OVR THE REGION. MDLS SHOW PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THAT WL PROVIDE PAC MSTR TO THE REGION. THE LOLVL FLOW WL
SUPPORT UPSLOPE THRU THE PD ALNG THE CST RNGS...CASCADES AND
INTO THE BLUE MTNS AND BITTERROOTS. HGTS WL BE GNRLY FLAT OF
SLOLY RISG THRU THE PD...SO PCPN AMTS SHLD REMAIN MOSTLY ON THE
LGT SIDE.
DAY 2...
...TEXAS AND MID-MS VLY...
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE PRODUCING A RATHER SGFNT PCPN EVENT
OVER TEXAS THIS PERIOD AS THE SLOW MOVING SRN STREAM UPPER
TROF THAT EXITS THE ROCKIES HEADS ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS
THE MS VLY.  BOTH MODELS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR MASS FIELDS WITH NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES.  HOWEVER..
THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF'S... WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A LARGE MAX OVER THE WRN GULF WELL OFF THE TEXAS
COAST WHILE THE ETA INSTEAD HAS THE MAX JUST INLAND OF THE TEXAS
COAST. THIS IN SPITE OF BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SHOWING A RATHER
SGFNT INFLOW OF TROPICAL MSTR FROM THE WRN AND SWRN GULF
RIGHT UP INTO SERN TEXAS FEEDING UP TOWARDS THE MID-MS VLY. PART
OF THIS DIFFERENCE MIGHT BE DUE TO VARIED HANDLING OF A VORT OFF
THE COAST.... WITH THE GFS BEING FARTHER TO THE EAST WITH THE
VORT THAN IS THE ETA. CONFIDENCE IN SELECTING A MODEL WITH
RESPECT TO THIS VORT IS NOT HIGH... HOWEVER.. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT
THE
GFS IS HAVING SOME GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS OFF THE COAST
AT 54 HRS... EFFECTIVELY CONTAMINATING HALF OF ITS FORECAST. SUCH
A FEEDBACK MAX OFF THE COAST COULD EASILY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF
MSTR TRYING TO GET UP INTO EAST TEXAS AND THEREBY LOWERING ITS
QPF OVER THE REGION.    IT ALSO SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE
HEAVIEST PCPN OVER THE REGION SHOULD BE JUST INLAND OF THE
COASTAL TROF.  THEREFORE HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE WETTER
ETA OVER SERN TX.. THOUGH DID INCREASE THE AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT
BACK OVER NCNTRL TX A BIT MORE LIKE THE GFS.
...PACIFIC NW...
A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC S/WV IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NW COAST LATE ON DAY1 AS IT DEEPENS... BRINGING WITH IT A STRONG
AND WELL DEVELOPED STREAM OF PACIFIC MSTR THAT WILL PRODUCE A
SGFNT HVY RAIN EVENT ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. WHILE
THERE ARE NO GLARING MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA
AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM... THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT WETTER AND
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE COASTAL RANGES AS WELL AS THE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT ENHANCING UVV'S OVER THE REGION.
ECKERT/ROBSON
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 07/12Z
 0.01 496676 492673 487673 484674 481671 479670 476670 473672 
      469675 464682 458694 456702 450707 448713 449718 452721 
      456719 459720 462723 466726 469722 473715 477707 482696 
      491684 496676 
 0.01 538201 538195 538190 534180 525163 521156 515151 500143 
      495138 489131 486123 483118 478119 475116 476113 480105 
      483098 482093 479091 475090 470091 467093 465098 464112 
      463124 460133 456137 453148 449159 446166 445168 445173 
      445175 442179 440183 438189 440209 437210 433210 429211 
      425214 422221 423227 423230 417234 415237 414243 415246 
      420248 427248 434249 443251 458249 465248 473250 478252 
      480254 485260 488267 491276 495283 498286 503289 508288 
      511286 514283 517277 519270 520263 520259 520254 519244 
      517237 498205 493201 489198 484199 477203 471202 469206 
      465206 461205 457206 456210 452210 449210 447208 447204 
      451201 456193 467186 474183 482185 489190 499195 513202 
      519207 525212 529213 533210 538201 
 0.01 438000 435988 429981 428972 426963 423958 420954 417949 
      413946 406943 401943 396942 384944 373946 364947 359945 
      355942 345939 342938 337935 333933 332927 330915 330907 
      330900 329893 328886 318883 313881 310883 308886 303891 
      301894 299893 293887 288886 283890 281897 281907 281920 
      281925 280931 275939 268944 264946 260947 254947 249948 
      242954 237959 235969 233973 232979 234985 238988 246992 
      252994 260996 273004 281007 292010 291013 288017 284024 
      281031 278041 276050 275056 275059 277062 282069 285073 
      291073 298069 306068 316062 324061 329060 335060 341061 
      341065 339076 337079 332078 330079 330083 332092 338102 
      343106 346098 352096 355094 356092 356089 354087 353082 
      355076 358072 361068 364068 366071 369075 371079 374084 
      377086 385087 389086 393083 401078 414076 417072 419067 
      422068 426068 429065 429059 424046 424037 431016 436006 
      438000 
 0.01 369122 369118 368118 365116 363116 360117 359117 359121 
      362123 365125 367125 368125 369122 
 0.01 290805 288797 286790 285787 283784 277786 266788 253794 
      245802 242806 241809 241813 243815 248814 254815 258818 
      265825 269828 274828 283824 286819 288813 290805 
 0.25 528199 528193 526188 524182 521177 516173 513170 508166 
      505165 502167 500168 499172 502178 506182 509185 514189 
      517193 520196 525200 528199 
 0.25 512275 516262 515252 509234 503228 499221 493215 485212 
      478212 482218 487219 490220 493223 498241 498245 498249 
      493249 489247 491255 493263 497272 502280 505282 511279 
      512275 
 0.25 476163 478159 476155 473152 471149 468147 465146 462149 
      459155 457160 455165 454168 457170 458169 462165 466165 
      472164 476163 
 0.25 419017 421009 418999 413989 409985 403981 388970 380967 
      372964 355961 345962 335964 327968 321976 316984 297016 
      287039 287047 290050 295055 302056 316055 324051 332046 
      339044 349043 359041 365041 371041 376040 379037 380033 
      381028 382022 384020 393015 399015 401017 405021 405026 
      406030 408034 412034 415029 419017 
 0.25 317933 316925 316915 315911 312910 308916 306921 302917 
      298912 296911 293913 291917 290925 286936 280946 272953 
      260959 249963 244966 239970 238976 238980 240983 244986 
      251988 263989 278988 283988 288990 291992 295991 299986 
      305976 315969 318964 317957 316950 317941 317933 
 0.25 281806 282802 280800 277798 272798 269797 263799 258800 
      255804 258805 263807 267808 270810 273811 278809 281806 
 0.50 512261 511258 511255 509252 508250 507246 507244 505239 
      502237 499237 502240 503243 504245 506249 506253 506254 
      507259 508261 511262 512261 
 0.50 371975 360972 351971 338973 331979 324985 320992 318000 
      313008 307019 300027 297036 298041 302043 309042 318040 
      332034 342028 351030 354031 359034 366035 372032 375024 
      378016 385009 387997 385984 380978 375976 371975 
 0.50 304943 304936 302932 299927 296927 287943 282950 278954 
      269959 259962 251965 244969 242972 241978 243982 246984 
      255987 262987 274986 281984 286984 290984 295983 297980 
      301974 305951 304943 
 1.00 372989 372986 367987 365992 369992 372990 372989 
 1.00 339012 337009 330009 325012 322021 325023 334018 337016 
      339012 
 1.00 299950 299945 298941 294941 291948 288952 283957 276960 
      262964 249969 245974 245979 250983 257984 270984 277982 
      283979 295973 297966 299960 299950 
 2.00 281972 279969 274967 271967 266967 260968 255970 252972 
      250974 250978 253980 259981 264980 270980 275978 279976 
      281972 
 3.00 274973 272972 269971 266972 264973 262975 264975 267976 
      269976 272975 274973  
 
24HR QP VT 08/12Z
 0.01 521733 520727 519722 516716 512707 508702 505707 503717 
      502733 498766 498770 498775 496782 496791 493803 489815 
      484829 480833 474838 468843 460847 443855 436859 430863 
      419868 404873 393876 389879 385879 377880 373881 371884 
      365894 358903 355907 353908 347910 340911 335910 323908 
      319905 314900 309893 300883 297879 292876 286874 279874 
      275876 271876 261876 258879 256885 259896 261902 258906 
      254910 251915 247925 242936 240949 239960 239967 240975 
      242982 245986 252992 257995 262997 266000 271002 282005 
      288007 292010 295010 298008 302008 295018 287026 283030 
      282034 282041 285043 289043 297042 301040 310032 315029 
      319029 334028 337031 343030 350028 354024 361017 370008 
      380001 389994 401986 422973 447965 455962 461959 471948 
      476942 481941 479947 481951 484949 491939 495934 499926 
      505915 508907 509901 513882 515865 516845 517834 518826 
      524790 524778 523769 523762 521733 
 0.01 535220 537211 538202 537195 533190 529179 528169 525166 
      517161 514162 508165 506169 504174 505178 506184 508192 
      513202 519210 526220 531223 535220 
 0.01 521269 525255 526248 525244 521235 514222 506209 500205 
      495203 489207 483206 480209 479212 473215 463222 453230 
      447234 443236 436238 431242 428249 428253 430256 434261 
      439264 443269 439274 436281 433292 431303 434306 438306 
      460301 466300 473299 480301 484302 487305 500304 506301 
      509299 511294 
 0.01 494158 495153 495147 494144 492141 483133 476131 472128 
      472118 472107 471102 469100 464106 462112 461116 458118 
      455124 454134 455139 457143 459147 456151 454157 458164 
      462166 466165 472162 476163 479167 482168 489166 493162 
      494158 
 0.01 363054 362049 361047 352047 344046 338045 330044 324045 
      320047 319052 321056 324058 330060 338059 344057 352057 
      361057 363054 
 0.01 306812 305809 302807 298806 285802 275798 268796 262795 
      255798 251800 248803 246808 244814 244821 245824 248823 
      253812 258809 263808 270807 275808 281810 288813 292814 
      298816 302816 305814 306812 
 0.25 515272 518265 518257 517252 514247 510239 507227 505224 
      501220 495220 493222 489234 484235 479232 475229 470232 
      466234 464234 461239 457240 453244 458246 463247 467252 
      468257 464268 460276 460278 460282 462284 470285 475284 
      480287 487292 496297 499297 503295 509290 512283 514276 
      515272 
 0.25 508833 507825 504825 501832 495843 492848 491854 489860 
      485867 482869 477871 459875 442875 420881 410886 400890 
      394892 389896 383900 375905 367910 360914 348918 342920 
      336920 327919 320916 315911 304897 298892 291889 287888 
      281887 277889 274892 272896 271902 274908 277916 276923 
      263934 257940 252946 249953 247962 247967 248973 252980 
      255983 258985 266989 283994 291993 298992 309989 318986 
      323985 324992 324996 319006 321009 323010 328009 344003 
      361996 369991 377985 405962 417950 430936 438930 448923 
      457917 460914 463911 469903 475897 482890 484890 486893 
      488899 491906 495905 498893 500883 501874 502869 504848 
      507843 507839 508833 
 0.25 264800 261801 264800 264800 
 0.50 511279 514269 516263 516257 513251 509245 503231 499227 
      497227 495231 492237 490239 487238 484239 480238 476234 
      473233 471237 470242 471246 474249 476254 476259 474263 
      471269 470272 472275 474277 483281 487283 494289 497291 
      501292 506289 511279