SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
159 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE EVOLUTION AND                
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM TUE-WED.                  
CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC 500-300MB LAYER VORTICITY IMAGERY             
ANIMATION SHOWED VIGOROUS SWLY FLOW OVER CO AS NEXT ULJ/SHORTWAVE(S)            
DIGGING ALONG 130W BETWEEN 40N-50N OVER IN THE ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.               
MODELS 18Z/08 POSITION NOT TOO FAR OFF RIGHT NOW.  OTHERWISE...DEEP             
SWLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CNTRL ROCKIES.                                         
MODELWISE: SHORT RANGE MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR THROUGH 48-72HRS WITH              
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...HOWEVER SFC CHARACTERISTICS ARE                   
DIFFERENT...WHICH IS CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST.  TIMING OF SYSTEM                
GETTING CLOSER AND STRENGTHENING OVER ERN CO IS THE SAME.  AVN                  
STILL PROGGING SFC CYCLOGENESIS FURTHER N ON TUE. NCEP SUGGESTING               
THIS IS LIKELY A GRID SPACING PROBLEM.  ETA/MESO-ETA/MM5 POINTING TO            
A FURTHER S SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  CONSIDERING THE POSITIONING OF            
THE ULJ...OVER THE DESERT SW...THE ETA-MESO-ETA/MM5 SOLUTIONS APPEAR            
MORE REASONABLE. THIS WILL CHANGE THE TUE FORECAST FOR SERN CO SOME.            
TNGT-MON NGT: UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT 24-36HRS            
WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW OVERHEAD...BUT WEAKENS AOB 700MB ON MON.  ANY               
WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD LIKELY REMAIN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AOA 9.5K FT           
MSL AND DURING THE AFTN IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.  AT LOWER                       
ELEVATIONS...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THERMAL DRIVEN LATE TNGT-MON NGT              
WITH MTN/VALLEY AND PLAINS CIRCULATIONS THE RULE.  APPEARS TO BE A              
WEAK FRONTAL SURGE DOWN THE CNTRL PLAINS ON MON PER POTENTIAL                   
TEMP/WIND ANALYSIS...THEN THE SURGE WORKS INTO SERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT           
WITH SHALLOW(850-700MB) STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED FROM THE RATON MESA-           
KSPD-KDDC BY 12Z/10.  THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE AR RIVER VALLEY/SLOPES OF RATON-PALMER           
RIDGES MON NGT-TUE AM.  SINCE THIS IS OUT IN 3RD/EARLY 4TH PERIODS              
MAY HOLD OFF ON THE FOG MENTION.  OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR              
THESE PERIODS LOOKS ON TARGET.  TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES                
COOLER ON MON WITH LACK OF WIND AND A SHALLOWER MIXED LAYER.                    
TUE-TUE NGT: AS INDICATED YDA...THE DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF THE CYCLONE            
IS CRITICAL TO THE SENSIBLE WX AND COULD DRASTICALLY ALTER THE                  
FORECAST.  MODELS HAVE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER WRN AZ 12Z/10 TUE AND              
BECOMING AN "OPEN" VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER WRN NM BY TUE AFTN. SYSTEM           
SHOULD BE CYCLICAL LIKE LAST THU-FRI'S STORM.  WITH 100-120KT ULJ               
PROGGED OVER NRN OLD MEXICO AND LFQ OVER NERN NM/SERN CO/OK-TX                  
PANHANDLES...SFC CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY AROUND THE RATON MESA WITH WARM            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAS ANIMAS/BACA CO(S) AND DRYLINE WELL TO THE           
SE IN THE SRN PLAINS. IF THIS VERIFIES...LOW LEVEL(850-700MB) THETA-E           
ADVECTION OCCURS UP THE AR RIVER VALLEY...WHICH COULD HELP DE-                  
STABILIZE THE AIR MASS.  MOD-STRONG(7 TO > 8 C/KM) MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES PROGGED ACROSS SRN CO TUE AFTN.  MODEL CAPE VALUES PROGGED TO             
BE 200-500 J/KG NEAR WARM FRONT. OBVIOUSLY WITH THE SFC CYCLONE AND             
WARM FRONT...0-3KM STM REL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH(200-400 M2/S2)              
RIGHT ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR WEAK AT BEST. VERTICAL                 
MOISTURE PROFILE NOT THAT BAD...ABOUT 100-150MB LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
AND SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE COMING IN WITH UPPER SYSTEM TUE AFTN.               
BIGGEST CAVEAT...IF STRATUS/FOG FORMS...WILL WE BE ABLE TO GENERATE             
SFC CONVECTION?  HINTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MOVING INTO SERN CO             
TUE AFTN PER MID-LEVEL DIV Q/UPPER LEVEL DIV FIELDS.  PLAN TO BE                
CONSERVATIVE AND GO WITH LOW CONDITIONAL POPS FOR SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS           
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY. NOT TO LEAVE OUT WRN CWFA.  IN ADVANCE OF THE           
SYSTEM...FAVORED SLY OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INFLOW TO THE SAN JUAN MTNS              
DEVELOPS TUE.  QUICK SHOT OF DYNAMICS/OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FOR THE SWRN            
MTNS TUE. COULD BE SOME HEAVY SNOW AGAIN. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY                  
HEADLINES...BUT HAVE POP "BULLSEYE" FOR SW/CNTRL MTNS. 66-84HR ETA              
SHOWS SYSTEM "BOMBING" OUT OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS TUE NGT-WED. PLAN TO            
HIT THE SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS WITH "WINDY" AND CHANCE POPS ON TUE NGT.            
SNOW LEVEL LIKELY TO LOWER TO AROUND 8K FT MSL ACROSS SERN CO...PER             
WET BULB ZERO NUMBERS. MAY NEED TO COOL TEMPS A LITTLE IN PLAIN WITH            
COOL ELY FLOW PROGGED TUE.  COULD BE INTERESTING TUE.                           
EXTENDED(WED-SUN): IF CURRENT 72-84HR ETA/AVN ARE CORRECT...THEN                
"VERY WINDY" CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ERN CO AS CYCLONE MATURES           
RAPIDLY.  STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW PROGGED FOR ERN CO ON THE                    
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 45-50KT 700MB CORE OVER ERN CO WED.  COULD              
NEED ANOTHER HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUE NGT-WED.  STILL CHANCE FOR SHRA            
PLAINS...SHSN MTNS. ON THU-SUN...WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SW-WLY            
FLOW.  AVN/MRF LIKELY OVERDONE ON MOISTURE SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS.  WILL           
KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SW/CNTRL MTNS...BUT LEAVE OUT SERN CO MTNS/                
PLAINS. YDA'S MRF CLOSED LOW FOR NEXT SAT IS GONE.  DAYS 5-7...STAYED           
WITH CLIMO.                                                                     
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
900 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
CURRENTLY: WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN & PENETRATED               
WELL INLAND PRODUCING SCT-BKN CU FIELD. W/ LOSS OF INSOLATION...CU              
HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING IN ITS WAKE A VEIL OF CIRRUS. RUC/WATER VAPOR            
COMPOSITE SHOWS VORT LOBE OVER AL/GA MOVING EWD W/ SOME DRYING                  
BEHIND THIS FEATURE. SOME LOW/MID CLOUDS EXTEND FROM NW GULF INTO               
LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z MSAS ANALYSIS HAS E-W SURFACE RIDGE AXIS                   
ANCHORED FROM WRN ATLANTIC ACROSS FL PENINSULA INTO ERN GULF.                   
EARLY EVENING TEMPS W/I A FEW DEGS OF MOS W/ READINGS IN THE 70S.               
PREVAILING WINDS WERE SWLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.                                    
ZFP: TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. LIGHT WINDS...LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE & DECREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GULF                  
STRATUS/FOG TO REDEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES NECESSARY.                 
MARINE: BUOYS REPORTING SE WINDS 5-10 KTS W/ C-MANS LIGHT WLY. LIKE             
LAST NIGHT...WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COAST. NO CHANGES TO               
1030 PM CWF.                                                                    
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1036 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
SFC FNT MAKING PROGRESS NWRD THIS MORNING ACRS CENTRAL IL. TEMP/DWPT            
GRADIENT IMPRESSIVE WITH 58/42 IN PIA NAD 76/64 IN LWV. THIS FNT TO             
LIFT TO NEAR I-80 BY EVE. WL MAINTAIN LOW POPS NRN AND CENTRAL ILX CWA          
LATE TODAY WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY ENHANCED TO WEST. TEMPS              
WL BE TRICKY AS FNT LIFT NWRD. RUC SUPPORTS CURRENT FCST TEMPS AND              
WL MAKE NO ADJUSTMENT ATTM.                                                     
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PLAHMER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1147 AM CST SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
MINOR ADJS FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. PULLED HIGHS BACK A NOTCH FAR N WITH            
ELY WND. MID 70S STILL LOOKING GOOD SRN IA AS WRMFNT XPCD TO PUSH               
RPDLY N LTR TDA. 12Z RUC HAS BNDRY ALG THE I80 CORRIDOR. DECENT                 
SUSTAINED SFC WNDS IN ERN KS S OF BNDRY ATTM AT 20KTS WITH DWPTS IN             
THE 60S AND TMPS WELL INTO THE 70S. DERIVED SATL LI CONTS TO                    
INDICATE STDY DESTABILIZATION S OF IA AND LIFTING NWD. 88DS ARE                 
CLEAN ATTM AND XCPD TO REMAIN SO THRU 21Z AT LEAST. SANGSTER TYPE               
HEAVY RAIN SITUATION SETTING UP...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT FARTHER              
TO THE W.                                                                       
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
318 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
THUNDER CHCS STILL MAIN CONCERN.                                                
WARMFRONT NWRN PTN CWA BORDER MAY BE FOCUS FOR TSTM DVLPMT THIS                 
EVENING. SECOND MORE SGFNT SFC WAVE ON LATEST RUCII APPCHG WRN PTN              
CWA BY 06Z. THIS MAY MEAN A LATE NIGHT SHOW FOR TSTMS ACROSS                    
AREA...AS WAVE RIDES ALG WRMFNT. RUCII BRN SHEAR VALUES IN THE OPTIMUM          
RANGE FOR SUSTAINED MESOCYCLONES. HAVE EXPANDED TSTM AREA TO ALL OF             
CWA TNGT. MENTION OF SVR NERN CORNER IN LIGHT OF MDT RISK AREA.                 
HOWEVER...SVR PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FURTHER WEST              
TWD MHK AND MARYSVILLE LATER THIS EVENING.                                      
LATEST RUCII ALSO SHOWS NICE UPPER WAVE TRAVERSING AREA LATE THIS               
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD FIRE TSTMS ALG STG MOISTURE GRADIENT...WRN PTN            
CWA. HOWEVER...WOULD THINK FORCING WITH SFC BNDRY AND MOISTURE                  
CONVERGENCE AFT DARK WILL BE BETTER THREAT. THIS SFC WAVE MOVES                 
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT WITH DRYING AGAIN IN STORE FOR MONDAY. NEXT               
BEST CHC BY TUESDAY AS BNDRY SETS UP TO OUR SOUTH AND MOISTURE                  
INCREASES OVER BNDRY. POPS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY TUESDAY IN MOIST            
OVRRNG FLOW.                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY EARLY IN FCST...MAY NEED TO CANCEL                  
BEFORE 00Z BUT WOULD RATHER BE CAUTIOUS AND NOT DROP TOO FAST.                  
.TOP...WIND ADVISORY REMAINDER OF THE AFTN ALG/EAST OF A LINE FROM              
ABILENE TO MARYSVILLE                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
304 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TO DISCUSS FOR THIS               
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODEL DATA HAD A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING INTO AWIPS             
TODAY...SO ONLY COMPLETE ETA/NGM FIELDS WERE AVAILABLE TO EXAMINE               
...WITH THE AVN ONLY AVAILABLE FROM 54 HOURS (18Z TUES) AND BEYOND.             
BY FAR THE ETA HANDLED SFC BOUNDARY POSITION FAR BETTER THAN                    
NGM...SO ETA WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT SEVERELY               
UNDERESTIMATES THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRY AIR.                         
18Z SFC MAP INDICATES E-W ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN NE...WITH            
DRY LINE EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                 
SUBTLE CHANGES IN SFC WINDS...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE IS             
VERY WEAK AT BEST. SO FEEL ONLY CHANCES FOR PCPN TONIGHT WILL BE IN             
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LAPS/RUC FIELDS                
INDICATE BEST MOISTURE/THETA-E ADVECTION. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE                 
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IN WY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST...SO UPPER                 
DYNAMICS TONIGHT WILL BE WEAK. AS A RESULT...WILL CONFINE SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF PCPN TONIGHT IN SLN GROUPING. OTHERWISE...WITH WINDS                  
BACKING A TAD TONIGHT...DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH IN EASTERN                 
KS...SO WILL INCREASE LOWS FROM SLN/ICT EASTWARD. 850MB FLOW VEERS              
TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...SO WILL DOWNPLAY ANY POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS            
TONIGHT.                                                                        
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS...IT HELPS PUSH SFC BOUNDARY               
SOUTH INTO NRN KS MONDAY. BUT WITH VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                    
BOUNDARY FEEL MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND             
WILL LEAVE MONDAY DRY. ALTHOUGH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-850MB            
THICKNESSES FORECAST BY THE ETA...WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND             
DRIER AIR HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO EVEN A LITTLE ABV SUNDAY/S               
TEMPS. AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE HIGHS MONDAY A CATEGORY MONDAY.              
ETA/MESOETA WANTS TO PUSH SFC BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TO A HUT-COTTONWOOD            
FALLS LINE BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVE MOVING              
THOUGH...HAVE DOUBTS ON THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. IN                          
FACT...FORECAST OF THIS FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER NORTH THAN IT/S                
PREVIOUS RUN. STILL...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING IN ADVANCE OF                 
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM...WOULD THINK MOISTURE WOULD                    
INCREASE AND ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AS MESOETA POOLS                      
850 MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL KS. SO WILL KEEP                   
PCPN CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL ALSO BUMP              
UP LOWS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION.                                                
UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNER AREA TUESDAY...BUT WITH WARM               
FRONT LURKING IN THE AREA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LITTLE CAP EXPECT               
TSRA TO CONTINUE TUESDAY. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS                
DOWN...BUT WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A                    
CATEGORY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF 100+ UPPER JET              
PROGGED BY AVN TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...SO TSRA CHANCES             
CONTINUE.                                                                       
EXTENDED DISC: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT              
THAT DEEPENING POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE EJECTS THROUGH                       
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN MODEL IS FASTER IN BRINGING THIS              
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT FIRST                  
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...BUT HOLD BACK MORE                 
ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST USA. WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...THURSDAY               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY...BUT NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD EJECT OUT LATE                  
FRIDAY. NOT SURE HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE COULD RETURN FRIDAY...BUT                 
WILL CHANGE PCPN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY BACK TO FRIDAY.                          
OTHERWISE...ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES.                   
FCSTID = 12/HYSELL                                                              
ICT   59  79  55  77 /  10   0  30  50                                          
HUT   55  78  55  77 /  10   0  30  50                                          
EWK   58  78  55  77 /  10   0  30  50                                          
EQA   59  79  55  77 /  10   0  30  50                                          
WLD   59  80  55  77 /  10   0  30  50                                          
RSL   47  76  48  74 /  10   0  20  40                                          
GBD   49  76  48  74 /  10   0  20  40                                          
SLN   54  77  52  75 /  20   0  30  40                                          
MPR   54  77  52  75 /  20   0  30  40                                          
CFV   62  81  62  77 /  10   0  40  50                                          
CNU   62  80  61  76 /  10   0  40  50                                          
K88   61  80  61  76 /  10   0  40  50                                          
.ICT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SE NEBRASKA ACROSS IA              
TO SRN WI. VERY WARM EARLY APRIL AIRMASS S OF FRONT. 30-40KT                    
LOW-LEVEL JET PER 00Z RAOBS/PROFILERS INTO BNDRY RESULTING IN TSTM              
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IA ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY TO STAY TO THE S OVERNIGHT            
AS THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE EWD MOVEMENT ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY               
WARM FRONT ONCE CONVECTION ORGANIZES. TO THE W...SHORTWAVE OVER ERN             
WY AIDING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ND. TO THE N...SFC HIGH OVER                
MANITOBA WAS BUILDING SE WITH PRESSURE RISES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS             
UPPER LAKES. HIGH PROVIDING A COOL NRLY FLOW ACROSS FA. SATELLITE               
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU DECK HAS ERODED OVER ERN/SCNTRL FA...WHILE               
RADAR SHOWS A FEW PESKY SPRINKLES STILL OCCURRING OVER NCTNRL/NW FA.            
CONCERN TONIGHT IS PRECIP POTENTIAL. 00Z RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE OVER NE            
WY ONLY DRIFTING INTO W DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND SO QG FORCING                     
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE REMAINS WELL W OF FA AS WELL. MEANWHILE...            
STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS IA/S MN/WI/LWR MI BRUSHES INTO             
FA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING IN SRN WI TO THE N OF            
MAIN CONVECTION TIED TO SFC WARM FRONT. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO              
DEVELOPING N OF THOSE SHRA ACROSS ECNTRL MN/WCNTRL WI. THIS ALL                 
INDICATES THAT BROADER SCALE FORCING/LIFT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS                  
REGION. RUC SHOWS BAND OF 850MB CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN               
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BASED ON TRENDS THIS EVENING...WILL                      
MAINTAIN/ADD MENTION OF SCT SHRA OR SPRINKLES LATE IN SRN COUNTIES.             
ACROSS THE N...A BIT PERPLEXED AS TO CAUSE OF INCREASING SPRINKLES              
IN THE LAST HR OR SO AS DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME            
HEATING SHOULD BE WORKING AGAINST THEM. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE IN                 
UPDATE...BUT EXPECT THAT THIS IS A TRANSIENT CONDITION AND WILL BE              
SHORT-LIVED.                                                                    
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
940 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER SE LOWER THIS EVENING. NARROW SURFACE                 
PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER LOWER ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DROP              
OFF SHARPLY. THIS COMBO HAS RESULTED IN A FAST DROP IN THE                      
TEMPERATURES IN THE RURAL AREAS FROM VERY PLEASANT DAYTIME READINGS.            
THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER             
OF THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE TOWARD                    
DAYBREAK MONDAY.                                                                
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SCENARIO FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUES TO              
LOOK GOOD. STORMS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE WARM SURFACE BOUNDARY IN AREA             
OF MAX SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER IA AND SE NE. VARIOUS                  
MODELS HANDLE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS DIFFERENTLY, BUT ALL RESULT             
IN SE LOWER EVENTUALLY GETTING WET. SURFACE FEATURES AT 01Z MATCH UP            
PRETTY WELL WITH SOLUTIONS FROM 18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC40. THE ETA               
MARCHES AN MCS ACROSS IA AND INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL OVERNIGHT,                  
EVENTUALLY BRINGING BULK OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER AFTER 12Z.              
ETA USUALLY PRETTY GOOD IN SHOWING MCS DEVELOPMENT, BUT TRACK RECORD            
FAR WORSE ON NAILING THE LOCATION, ALTHOUGH LATEST TRENDS ADD                   
CONFIDENCE. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, THE RUC40                  
PROPAGATES SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF IT AS 850MB               
THETAE ADVECTION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TO THE NORTH OF            
THE FRONT. THUS, THE RUC40 IS A LITTLE QUICKER IN BRINGING PRECIP               
INTO THE AREA.                                                                  
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LOW AT BEST AS ALL MODELS SHOW             
BEST INSTABILITY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE FA. CONVECTION OVER SRN            
LOWER WILL BE ELEVATED, MITIGATING ANY HIGH WIND THREAT, AND                    
INSTABILITY PROGGED TOO LOW FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE HAIL. LATEST DAY 2            
HAS REMOVED SE LOWER FROM SEVERE THROUGH 12Z AND WILL REFRESH                   
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK TO PLAY DOWN SEVERE CHANCES EVEN MORE. EVENING             
ZONE UPDATE FORTHCOMING TO ADDRESS LATEST TRENDS.                               
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
JW                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FCST ARE THE WIND AND AMNT OF CLDS THIS AFTN             
AND TNGT.                                                                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING AN NRLY VERICALLY STACKED LOW JUST NE OF             
LAKE SUPERIOR... WHILE ANOTHER LOW WAS DIGGING INTO THE NW PAC CSTL             
AREA. AT THE SFC A LOW WAS DIGGING OVR THE CNTRL PLAINS. BTWN THESE             
LOWS A RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND CAN PRAIRIES.                  
THE LK SUPERIOR LOW WILL SLIDE OFF TO JAMES BAY THIS AFTN. THE SFC              
RIDGE WILL THEN MOV INTO FA. WNDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THRU THE              
AFTN AND VEER NW. CAA CAUSED BY WRAP ARND OF THIS LOW WILL RAISE THE            
SFC BASED INVERSION TO H85. MEAN SFC-H85 >80 PCT AND LLVL LIFT                  
CAUSED BY A SFC-H85 LAPSE RATE OF >7C\KM SHOULD KEEP CLDS OVR THE FA            
THIS AFTN. BY LATE AFTN LAPSE RATE WILL FALL OFF...AND SHOULD SEE A             
FEW BINOVC. 280K ISENTROPIC ANLYS ALSO SHOWING SOME SUBSIDENCE OVR              
FA WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP PRODUCE SOME BRKS IN CLD CVR. WITH CLDS               
AND STRONG WINDS...MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS DN A BIT TDA. TRAJ FCST               
SHOW AIRMASS NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR YDA WILL SLIDE OVR FA TDA. WITH HI             
UPR 30S IN THAT AREA YDA...AND MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING TEMPS ARND 45.              
CONCERN STILL BE AMNT OF SUN WHICH MAY BRING A LTL MORE WARMTH.                 
CONCERN STILL OVR POSSIBLE FLOODING TDA. RCLM4 AND RKLM4 GAGES                  
SHOWING ONTONAGON RVR HAS STARTED TO LVL OFF JUST BLO FLOOD STAGE.              
ONTONAGON SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTS THAT THE ICE HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE            
LWR PART OF RIVER...AND WATER WAS FLOWING FREELY. WILL CONT TO WATCH            
FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS TO MAKE SURE NO ICE JAMS DVLP...AS THERE IS            
QUITE A DISTANCE AND A NUMBER OF SHARP BENDS IN THE RIVER UPSTREAM              
FM ONTONAGON. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE CHOCOLAY AT HARVEY. THIS                   
MORNINGS READING SHOWS THAT IT HAS REACHED 8FT AND CONT TO RISE.                
FLOOD STATE IS 9 FEET. WILL CONT TO MONITOR THAT RIVER ALSO. ALL                
OTHER RIVERS APPEAR TO BE WELL BLO FLOOD STAGE ATTM.                            
ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV WILL SLIDE THRU THE RIDGE OVR FA LATE TNGT.                 
H85-H50 Q-VEC CNVRGNC WILL INCREASE OVR FA OVRNGT...HOWEVER...XPCT              
TO SEE MEAN 1000-500MB RH TO FALL OFF. XPCT TO SEE CLDS ACRS FA                 
TNGT...BUT PCPN WILL BE DOUBTFUL OVR NRN COUNTIES...HOWEVER...THERE             
IS A SLGT CHC OVR SRN COUNTIES LATE. MOS GUIDANCES AGREES BY KEEPING            
POPS <20 PCT. WNDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE N AND HAVE KEEP ENOUGH                
MIXING TO KEEP TEMPS FM FALL MUCH BLO FRZG.                                     
.MQT...FLOOD WATCH ONTONAGON RIVER MIZ002 TODAY.                                
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1103 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SC CLOUDS OVER EAST UPPER              
AND MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO            
DIMINISH OVER WISCONSIN. THE LATEST SURFACE PLOT SHOWS AN AREA OF               
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A NARROW RIDGE             
OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN LAKES.              
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITH CLOUD COVER.              
THE LATEST RUC SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW DIMINISHING OVER THE WESTERN                 
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON... AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NORTHEAST OF              
LAKE SUPERIOR TO JAMES BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE             
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST... TO CONTINUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE              
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. 850/500 AND 700/500 MB QVECTORS SHOW                      
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING AS ANTI CYCLONIC FLOW INFLUENCES THE AREA.                          
THEREFORE DUE TO CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC DATA...WILL GO                
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST            
AREA... AND MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TO THE STRAITS AND EAST UPPER                   
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1025 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
...UPDATED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS TO NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY PM...             
LATEST VIS LOOPS AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF SC OVER THE               
NRN 1/3 OF THE CWA AT 1000 AM EDT THIS MORNING. THIS WAS THE AREA               
WERE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WAS CYCLONIC.  FROM INTERSTATE 96 AND              
SOUTH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WAS ANTICYCLONIC.  SOUNDING FROM THE              
GOES SOUNDER...ETA...RUC...AND ACTUAL GRB...APX AND DTX SOUNDINGS               
SHOW THAT THE NRN COUNTIES HAVE A MOISTURE LAYER AROUND 850 MB WHILE            
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOW NO SUCH LAYER. SINCE THIS                
SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO LIFT TO THE NE AND THE LAYER IS QUITE                   
SHALLOW... I BELIEVE IT WILL MIX OUT TOTALLY BY MID AFTERNOON OVER              
ALL OF THE CWA. SO... OVER THE NRN SECTIONS IT WILL BECOME MOSTLY               
SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.  OVER THE SRN CWA... IT WILL REMAIN SO.                 
EVEN THE ETA CU FORECAST SUGGEST NO CU OVER THE SRN CWA TODAY.  THE             
DTX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY.                                                      
INCREASED THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 5F ACROSS THE CWA.               
THAT IS BASED ON THE ETA 00Z FORECAST WAS AROUND 5C TO COLD IN THE              
LWR LAYERS FOR 12Z THIS MORNING.  MEANWHILE... THE RUC SEEMS MORE ON            
TARGET.  SO... BASED ON GOOD SUBSIDENCE... FULL SUNSHINE AND WEAK               
INVERSION SHOWN ON THE ETA/RUC SOUNDING FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...            
HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT NEAR 70 INLAND TODAY.                                      
SYSTEM TONIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD... MORE ON THAT WITH THE AFTERNOON              
FORECAST.                                                                       
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
845 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO. SHOWERS                
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER FREEBORN AND FARIBAULT COUNTIES AS                 
FORECAST BY THE MODELS. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT THE CHANCE OF              
SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS MINNEAPOLIS AND ST PAUL TONIGHT HOWEVER.                
DESTABLIZATION AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANT BUT THE WARM             
ADVECTION IS NOT FORECAST TO CARRY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE MESO               
ETA FORECAST A 850 MB BASED LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS FOUR WHERE THE                
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT FORECASTS A              
MINUS 2 ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS ROCHESTER DURING THE NIGHT. EVEN                   
SO...THE RUC MODEL SUGGESTS AN 100 KNOT UPPER IS NOW NOSING INTO                
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SOUTH OF            
THE MINNESOTA RIVER DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                               
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 WH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1045 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS FOR UPDATE ARE WITH PCPN TRENDS IN THE WEST...AND                 
TEMPS. 12Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED POTENTIAL TO REACH THE LOWER TO               
MIDDLE 50S THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...COOL AIR ALOFT ALREADY LEADING TO               
CU DVLPMT...AND NE WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR WARMUP. THEREFORE...               
WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FCST IDEA OF HIGHS BLO SOUNDING                        
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
WEAK S/W TROF APPARENT ACRS WRN SD IN WATER VAPOR. THIS FEATURE                 
SEEMS TO BE LIFTING NWD...WHICH WAS HINTED AT BY 09Z RUC. LTL                   
FORCING EITHER IN THE FORM OF DIFF PVA OR WAA ON THE ERN END OF                 
WAVE...AND BAND OF --SHRA ACRS SRN SD ALL BUT COMPLETELY                        
DISSIPATED ATTM. WILL REMOVE PCPN IN THE WEST.                                  
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1025 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                      
MOST OF SHOWERS ASSOC WITH DEPARTING LOW HAVE DISSIPATED OFF DLH                
88D. THE IR SAT PICS INDICATE A BAND OF ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH             
AN H5 VORT MAX STILL HAS YET TO EXIT. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW                       
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY IN FAR N MN...BUT NOT MUCH             
LATER. LOW CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STRONG IN ALL OF OUR CWA AT THE                   
MOMENT...AND NEXT BATCH OF AC CLOUDS IS SQUEEZING OUT THE CLEARING              
THAT WAS HEADED IN OUR DIRECTION. RUC CU RULE MAP SHOWS BROKEN DECKS            
ARE LIKELY TO REFORM IN ANY SUNSHINE. DRY LAYER ALOFT WILL                      
TEND TO MIX DOWN A LITTLE TODAY IN SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE ABUNDANCE OF            
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABLE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CU                
FORMATION. TEMPS CLOSELY LINKED TO AMOUNT OF SUN THIS TIME OF YEAR...           
BUT WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP THEM MORE PESSIMISTIC BASED ON CURRENT                
TRENDS.                                                                         
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
SHIMON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
647 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS UP NORTH            
HAVE DISSIPATED AS WE NEAR SUNSET. RUC/META SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING          
WELL INTO TN BY 06Z OR LITTLE THEREAFTER. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW WITH DEEP...DRY STABLE LAYER THROUGH 600            
MB ABOVE THAT. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING AS             
FEW REMAINING CU DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.                                
AFTER MIDNIGHT...20-30 KT BL-850 MB FLOW TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE FLOW             
DECOUPLES SOMEWHAT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE...SHOULD SEE AREAS             
OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AFTER 06Z...THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS           
THE REGION WHILE SURFACE TEMPS FALL TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF                  
SATURATION (LOW-MID 60S). SOME PATCHY...LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS              
SUNRISE...BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE AND WON/T MENTION IN ZONES.               
UPDATES OUT SOON.                                                               
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
05/                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
340 PM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
WILL GO WITH THE ETA MDL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. FOR                     
TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR            
C SD WHERE MUCH OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS EVENING. SCT                 
SHRAS SHOWN ON UNR AND ABR RADARS SHOULD REMAIN OVER NC SD AND                  
GRADUALLY MOVE N INTO NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ETA AND               
THE RUC SHOW MUCH OF THEIR QPF ACROSS NC SD TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE            
CWA SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER                       
REMAINING...ALONG WITH E TO NE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH...TEMPS SHOULD              
NOT FALL OFF MUCH THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.                     
FOR MON...EXPECT A 50H S/W TO SWEEP E ACROSS N SD AND ND ALONG WITH             
ITS SFC LOW PRES. THEREFORE...SE WINDS WILL BECOME S AND SW THROUGH             
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR. OVERALL...WITH LOW CLOUDS               
BREAKING UP SOME ACROSS N SD AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING WITH            
THE 50H S/W...SKIES ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY            
THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS S/W WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS            
TO N SD AND WC MN IN THE AFTN AND EVENING MON. HIGHS ON MON SHOULD              
BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. AFTER THIS S/W MOVES THROUGH ON MON               
NIGHT...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP ACROSS C AND NC SD AS WINDS GO TO            
THE W AND NW. AGAIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OUT OF THE 30S ON MON                 
NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP AND SOME CLOUD COVER.                               
ON TUES...SKIES S/B P/C OVER THE CWA WITH TEMPS AGAIN RISING INTO               
THE 40S AND 50S. IT SHOULD BE DRY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESURRE. ON TUES             
NIGHT...WE BEGIN TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MID            
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SW TO NE. WINDS SHOULD ALSO PICK UP.              
THEREFORE...DONT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL OFF TOO MUCH.                             
.EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                
VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THIS GO AROUND AS                   
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON                 
TUESDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.                 
12Z AVN COMPARED TO 00Z MRF RUN LAST NIGHT ARE VERY CLOSE WHILE THE             
ECMWF/NOGAPS LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THERE ARE MINOR                 
DIFFERENCES WITH POSITION OF THE 500MB LOW AND SURFACE FEATURES...BUT           
NOT WORTH SWEATING AT THIS TIME. CANADIAN MODEL EJECTS UPPER LOW                
FARTHER EAST THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS...BUT WILL IGNORE THIS                 
SOLUTION. ALSO...AS THE LOWS PASSES TO EAST OF THE AREA...THIS                  
SYSTEM WILL HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO TAP...THEREFORE EXPECT THE RAIN             
CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOBRIDGE GROUP...WHILE THE RAIN SHOULD MIX                
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE                     
PRECIPITATION ENDS. CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES DEFINITELY SUPPORT                
SNOW OUT WEST BY OR JUST AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD               
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR/ECKBERG                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
548 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2001                                                       
MORE LOW CLOUDS WERE ROLLING ACROSS OUR EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.              
THUS WILL UPDATED FIRST PERIOD GROUPS AS APPROPRIATE. MSAS ANALYSIS             
AND 09Z RUC SUGGESTS THEY COULD NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER NEAR DAYBREAK             
...AND HANG AROUND. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE AS                  
SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE S-SW AND DAYTIME HEATING PREDOMINATES.                  
A FURTHER REVIEW OF EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO CHANGES NEEDED TO             
TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FOR TUE/WED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION               
KEPT FOR USER CONTINUITY..                                                      
RSB                                                                             
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. ON THE BIG              
PICTURE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH OUR             
AREA BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA TO SOUTH CENTRAL              
TEXAS...AND CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND MEAN TROUGHING AFFECTING THE WESTERN           
USA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WAS MAKING A RETURN. DEWPOINTS           
AT LEAST 60F OR GREATER EXTENDED FROM WEST OF DRYDEN...TO NEAR                  
SNYDER...TO SW OK. THE FOG/LOW CLOUD LOOP DID SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS              
DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHEAST BIG BEND...THE EXTREME SE PERMIAN                 
BASIN...AND SCATTERED OVER PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND SW LOW                
ROLLING PLAINS.                                                                 
THE FORECAST MODELS STARTED OUT FINE. A DRYLINE FEATURE SHOULD RETURN           
AND REMAIN OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. OUR MM5 MODEL AND             
THE NGM SEEMED TO DO BEST IN FORECASTING A SMALLER EAST/WEST DIURNAL            
SHIFT OF THE DRYLINE. BUT THE NGM IN THE QPF DEPARTMENT SEEMED TO               
OVERPLAY SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FAITH           
AND A DRY FORECAST GOING...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD KEEP A               
DAMPER ON STORMS INITIATING. AREAS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO THE              
EASTERN BASIN IS THE BEST BET FOR PRECIP IF IT DEVELOPS.                        
TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY...WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS FOR               
HIGHS. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS LOCALITIES...             
WITH NEAR 100S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. LOCAL NORMS FOR TODAY ARE                  
78/47. TEMPS MAY TREND A CAT COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER              
HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION.                      
THE EXTENDED FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS DRY. NEW MRF NUMBERS CAME OUT...           
WITH GRAPHICS SLOWLY DOWNLOADING INTO AWIPS. THE NOGAPS FOR TUE/WED             
ALONG WITH MRF NUMBERS WAS SUGGESTING SHOWERS. WITH THE DRYLINE                 
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL NOTE WIDELY SCATTERED                
CONVECTION TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMP TRENDS                
GOING TO DAY TEN. FIRST GUESS NUMBERS FOLLOW BELOW..                            
MAF  87/54/84/55   0000                                                         
LSA  85/51/80/48   0000                                                         
E41  88/56/85/55   0-00                                                         
6R6  92/59/88/60   0-00                                                         
MRF  84/42/80/43   0000                                                         
CNM  85/46/81/49   0000                                                         
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1040 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW DRY AIR MASS MOVING IN OVERHEAD.                  
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES BY             
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC/MESO ETA RUNS DEPICT SEA BREEZE COLLISION            
OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE CAN NOT RULE            
OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...SIMILIAR TO SUNDAY.                                   
MORNING UPDATE...WITH THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS MOVING IN                
WILL REMOVE HIGH CLOUDS AND GO WITH SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SHOULD            
SEE MORE CLOUDS OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.              
MARINE...SOME WORDING CHANGES OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE.            
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                                                       
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER                                                          
AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1155 EDT MON APR 9 2001                                                         
...VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON...                                        
RUC SHOWED A RATHER STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. AS OF 1100            
AM EDT THE VORT AXIS WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.                
THERE WAS ALSO GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...  LOW LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE               
STATIONARY FRONT NEAR INTERSTATE 80 (OHIO/INDIANA) AND GOOD UPPER               
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100 KNOT JET                
OVER EASTERN ONTARIO.  MEANWHILE... THERE WAS YET ANOTHER WAVE ON               
THE FRONT OVER SRN IOWA. A SMALLER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS                 
LOCATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THAT STATIONARY FRONT... WHERE THE LOW             
LEVEL INFLOW INTERSECTED THE FRONT.  THAT COMPLEX WAS MOVING TO THE             
EAST AROUND 40 KNOTS.                                                           
GIVEN THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXITING                
MICHIGAN AT 1100 AM... THAT WAS PARTLY DUE TO THE STRONG NVA BEHIND             
THE WAVE... AND RIGHT FRONT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS... PLUS THE                
1025 HIGH OVER ONTARIO PROVIDING 2000 TO 3000 FT OF COLD AIR NEAR               
THE SURFACE... I BELIEVE THE NEXT WAVE WILL JUST MISS SOUTHWEST                 
MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...              
THERE IS SOME WEAK WAA A LOW LEVELS AS THIS PASSES BY SO WENT FOR               
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM                   
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND JUST A CHANCE OF A SHOWER ELSEWHERE.                      
TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40S SOUTH AND 35 TO 40 NORTH AT 1100            
AM... GIVEN THE EAST WINDS AND CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH...                
TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING WARMER THAN 50.  OVER THE                   
SOUTH... EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL SUNSHINE (SEEN ON VIS IMAGE OVER THE              
SW QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN AT 1100 AM) REACHING 60 WILL BE HARD TO            
DO. SO I LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5F FOR THIS AFTERNOON.             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1152 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001                                                      
ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA JUST ABOUT                
OVER...AS LAST OF CELLS NOW IN EASTERN PART OF CWA. MORNING DTX                 
SOUNDING SHOWED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB CAPES OF 1000 J/KG.            
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WAS NIL...WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 30S AND               
LOW 40S. INSTABILITY ALOFT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL FORCING                      
SUFFICIENT TO KICK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SEVERE HAIL EVENT WITH UP TO               
TWO INCH HAIL REPORTED.                                                         
ATTENTION FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TURNS TO              
TWO FORCING MECHANISMS. WHILE THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY WAS                       
ELEVATED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE SURFACE BASED                     
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEARING AREA WORKING               
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER WILL REACH CWA FROM FNT SOUTH. SURFACE FRONT             
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO IS PROGGED BY THE RUC TO REMAIN THERE...WHILE              
MESOETA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT...GREAT LAKES ETA PUSH THE FRONT INTO            
FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. PREFERENCE IS TO BELIEVE RUC AND KEEP THE                
FRONT OUT OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK OF              
THE FRONT MAKING INTO THE CWA TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FOR             
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC BASED CAPES TO                
1000 TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT ALONG WITH               
500 MB WINDS TO 50 KNOTS AND WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 8500 FEET...POINT            
TO A COMBINED WIND AND HAIL /SLIGHT/ THREAT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON              
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.                                                        
ANOTHER BOUT OF SEVERE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY               
MORNING AS MESOETA INDICATES ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SPINNING UP             
VICINITY OF IA/IL AND TRACKING ACROSS CWA DURING THE NIGHT.                     
HERE...ONCE AGAIN...THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED YIELDING A HAIL             
SCENARIO AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.                                             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE SHOWERS/TSRA ENDING ACROSS CWA PER               
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WILL               
CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                        
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY FROM FNT NORTH AND HAVE LOWERED                   
TEMPERATURES FOR AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY.                                         
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1105 AM EDT MON APR 9 2001                                                      
THE CURRENT APX 88D SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST AND                 
NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL              
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM DTX SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS               
MOVING OVER THE THUMB AND EXITING INTO LAKE ERIE. IR AND VISIBLE                
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE STATE... EXTENDING BACK              
INTO WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS                    
AFTERNOON WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND               
SUN.                                                                            
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE EVIDENT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER             
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING... WERE A RESULT OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT             
DEVELOPED OVER IOWA. ADDITIONAL FORCING THIS MORNING THE HELPED GENERATE        
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WAS FROM WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE 500           
MB FLOW AND UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS GENERALLY A                
WEST/SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH A STRONG VORT CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING            
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH A SECOND WEAKENING WAVE OVER WISCONSIN.             
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING EXITS EAST OF THE REGION. THE                  
LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER                    
SOUTHERN LOWER THIS AFTERNOON... WITH THE 300K SURFACE SHOWING SOME             
CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN                   
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND               
RUC DATA...WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
AS FOR SUNSHINE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN                   
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPLIES SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVER               
EAST UPPER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUN TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON           
THEREFORE WILL GO PARTLY SUNNY FOR EAST UPPER AND THE STRAITS                   
REGION. WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY                  
TODAY.                                                                          
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
315 PM EDT MON APR 9 2001                                                       
MARINE LYR BUSTED OUT TDA AND TEMPS UNDR CLR SKIES SOARED INTO 70S              
AND 80S. ATMOS IN AREA HAS REMAINED IN CHECK FOR NOW...BUT LATEST               
RUC MDL SHOWS CAPES TO EXCEED 2000 BY 00Z...AS S/W MOVS THRU FCST               
AREA AND E OF AREA BY ERLY TNGT. THIS SHUD ALLOW FOR SOME HEFTY TRW             
TO MOV ACRS AREA MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN SXNS OF FA THIS EVE. HAVE                
ADDED HVY DUTY TRW WRDG TO WRN AND CNTRL ZNS IN ANTICIPATION OF                 
ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER WW. WL LIMIT HVY DUTY WRDNG TO EXCLUE AREAS                 
CLOSER TO THE SHORE AS CNVCTN SHUD NR THIS AREA WITH PRIME HTG TIME             
OVER.                                                                           
APPRS THAT THIS FNT WL SAG FAR ENUF S OF THE AREA TUE TO ALLOW FOR A            
DRY DAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WL BRNG FNT RETURN TUE NGT AND WED AND WL             
GNRLY CAUSE MORE PRECIP.  SETUP LOOKS LIKE HI SETS UP TO OUR N AND              
FNT TO OUR S AS H5 RDG BLDS ACRS THE AREA.  THIS SHUD BRING IN                  
ANOTHER MARINE LAYER EVNT FOR MID AND LATE WK.                                  
ON MOS...HAVE GNRLY LWRD TEMPS TUE AND BEYOND.                                  
ON THE MARINE...QUIET FOR NOW BUT SCA MAY BE NEEDED TUE NGT AND WED             
ON CST AND WED ON LWR DEL BAY.                                                  
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
JWH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
315 PM MDT MON APR 9 2001                                                       
COMPLEX FORECAST WEATHER SCENARIO TRANSPIRING NEXT COUPLE DAYS.                 
VORTICITY LOBE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL UT TO EAST-CENTRAL CO AT 00Z WITH             
VORTICITY CENTER EAST OF COS.  CLOUDINESS THICKENING NORTH OF THIS              
FEATURE WHERE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING AND NIL OR WEAK STABILITY.           
EVEN SO...BOTH ETA AND NGM LOOK VERY PESSIMISTIC WITH QPF BULLSEYE              
NEAR SOUTHEAST CORNER WY OVERNIGHT. MESO-ETA CONSISTENT WITH                    
ETA/NGM. RUC40 DRY THROUGH EVENING HRS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER            
LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA TURNING EASTWARD WITH BACKING FLOW OVER AZ/NM              
TAPPING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BAJA THROUGH TX. BELIEVE LACK OF              
MOISTURE...OR TIMING OF ITS ADVECTION...WILL HAMPER QPF IN SOUTHWEST            
CARBON COUNTY. FROM MOUNTAINS EWD...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN MODELS TO             
WARRANT WATCH. MODELS HAVE DISORGANIZED LOWS MOVING ACROSS CO ROCKIES           
TUE WITH STRONG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT AND SYSTEM MOVING TO CENTRAL              
NEB BY 60 HRS. AVN WARMER OF MODELS...NOT DROPPING 552 THICKNESS                
SOUTHEAST OF STATE UNTIL AFTER 42 HRS.  WILL KEEP WATCH WEST OF NEB             
BORDER FOR NOW.                                                                 
.CYS...                                                                         
WY...WINTER STORM WATCH SE MTNS TUE AFTN THRU WED ZNS 63..64..66.               
     WINTER STORM WATCH SE TUE NGT THRU WED ZNS 59..60..62..65..                
          67>70.                                                                
NE...NONE.                                                                      
COX                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wy