AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
830 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OVERNIGHT...WATERVAPOR AND I.R. SAT IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF               
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS STREAMING EWD FROM THE GOMEX THIS EVENING.           
RUC ANLYS SWATH OF HIGH LEVEL RH IN DIVGT FLANK OF 120KT E-W                    
ORIENTED JTSTRK CTRD ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST. PREFERRED GFS H25 RH/           
WIND/DIVG PROGS INDICATE THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A              
HIGH BKN-OVC DECK OVER MUCH OF THE PENINSULA...PERHAPS THINNING SOME            
OVER THE SRN THIRD CWA.                                                         
PLAN TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER TO SHOE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...AND              
NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS SUCH THAT ALL BUT THE FAR NWRN CWA                
WILL SHOW M-U60S.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT WINDS AOB 10KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA. ALL             
THE S/R GUIDANCE SHOWS A 15-20KT NRLY SURGE PUSHING THROUGH AT LEAST            
THE FLG-COF LEG 06Z-12Z. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS GETTING UP TO               
AROUND 5FT THERE...POSSIBLY A FT HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM. PLAN TO             
GO WITH A CAUTIONARY STMT FOR THE GULF STREAM NORTH OF COF OVERNIGHT            
AND TWEAK SEA HGHTS UP A BIT AFT 06Z.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR WITH A HIGH BKN-OVC DECK MOST OF THE NIGHT.                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...ISSUED SHORT FUSE LATE AFTN RFW TO COVER PRECIPITOUS            
RH DROP ACROSS THE NRN INTR COS. RFW CONTINUES FOR THE NRN INTR FOR             
SAT AFTN...AND LATEST MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MAY NEED TO BE                 
NUDGED CLOSER TO THE COAST (INTO WRN SECTIONS OF COASTAL VOLUSIA/NW             
BREVARD COS).                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR VOLUSIA/LAKE/                 
 SEMINOLE/ORANGE/NORTHWEST OSCEOLA COS.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
956 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NE OF LAKE              
SUPERIOR LATE THIS EVENING. PROLONGED ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT EVENT                
CONTINUES ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN...DRIVEN BY STRONG OVER-LAKE                      
INSTABILITY (DELTA T'S AROUND 20 C) COMBINED WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC               
SUPPORT VIA A POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATING THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER             
LOW. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP THAT IMPACTED THE TIP OF            
THE MIT AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN DURING EARLY EVENING IS SHOWING A                 
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AS THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT BEGINS TO            
WANE WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...ANOTHER EVEN               
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS FAST ON ITS HEALS...WITH THE LATE FEW FRAMES             
OF KAPX 88D SUGGESTING ANOTHER INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND               
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ACROSS NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA. LOW LEVEL FLOW                  
REMAINS W/SW...BUT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W/NW OVERNIGHT AS THE                   
STACKED LOW BEGINS TO EXIT NW AWAY FROM MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...                    
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF                    
DISCRETE LAKE EFFECT BANDING...BUT WILL INSTEAD FAVOR ANOTHER                   
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ONGOING LAKE ENHANCED               
SNOW TARGETING FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW AREAS (I.E. FAR NRN AND NW                 
LOWER MICHIGAN). WILL MAINTAIN CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THESE AREAS                 
OVERNIGHT...TAPERING TO SCT POPS FOR THE FAR SE CWA NEAR SAGINAW                
BAY. SNOW/BLOWING SNOW HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN TACT...AS WILL THE              
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKESHORE AREAS FROM MANISTEE TO THE LEELANAU                 
PENINSULA AND THE GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. ADDITIONAL             
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY JUST UNDER WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO PARTIAL             
MELTING/COMPACTING OF THE SNOW AS TEMPS STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE                   
FREEZING. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST ADDITIONAL                 
ACCUMULATION...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ON TOP             
OF THE INCH OR TWO RECEIVED THIS EVENING.                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 408 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                            
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS                
507DM 500MB LOW...AND ASSOCIATED 980MB SURFACE LOW ROTATING JUST                
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND             
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...ONE WHICH IS JUST PASSING EAST OF THE            
REGION WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.                  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT THE                  
COLUMN WITH 12Z 850MB RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING -6C TO -7C ACROSS THE               
GREAT LAKE REGION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.             
AS EXPECTED...LAKE EFFECT MACHINE STILL GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
LAKES...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING             
WITH LOSS OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION. MOST LOWER               
ELEVATION AREAS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. ELEVATED AREAS HAVE                  
REMAINED PREDOMINATELY SNOW...ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL                   
ACCUMULATION AS EVEN THERE TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE ABOVE FREEZING.               
MANY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL               
AMOUNTS...ONGOING MARINE AND WINTER HEADLINES...AND WIND ISSUES                 
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                            
TONIGHT...AFTER BRIEF OVERALL LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS                         
EVENING...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP AS ONTARIO                   
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF 700MB-500MB DIVQ APPROACH THE                
REGION. IN ADDITION TO ABOVE SUPPORT...OTHER PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY             
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT. OVER WATER INSTABILITY               
REMAINS EXTREME WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING AROUND 20C...900MB-700MB               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 70 PERCENT...LITTLE WIND SHEAR IN THE                   
CBL...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT NEARLY 15KFT. SO LITTLE DOUBT LAKE               
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERNS CENTER ON              
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO 270            
DEGREES BY 06Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER AND ABOUT 280 DEGREES OVER             
THE EASTERN UPPER. GIVEN EXPECTED WIND FIELD...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG            
AND WEST OF I-75 IN THE NORTHERN LOWER AND NEAR WHITEFISH POINT IN              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE EFFECT. AS             
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD              
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER                    
ELEVATED AREAS...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. GIVEN MODIFIED AIR                
MASS...FEEL WARM LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HAVE MORE OF AN                           
AFFECT..LEADING TO SOME MIX NEAR THE COASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH             
LIQUID WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW WILL HELP KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS             
DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL MORE ADDITIONAL                  
INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A            
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WHITEFISH POINT. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND            
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR CURRENT AREA AND ADD IN                  
CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS                  
SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS            
POSSIBLE. WILL ALLOW ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE.                       
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AFFECTED COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE               
MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH 06Z AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OVER WATER            
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS 45 MPH GUST POTENTIAL. BY LATER                            
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RESULTING IN                    
DECREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
MARINE...WILL CONTINUE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL NEARSHORE                  
WATERS...EXCLUDING WHITEFISH BAY AND THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...THROUGH            
09Z. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES CONTINUES TO              
SUPPORT 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL.                                                 
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP/STACKED/BAROTROPIC LOW WILL BE               
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY SAT. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE                
ROTATES AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW AND LIFTS NE...THIS WILL              
ALLOW UPPER LOW TO FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...            
WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL HOVERING AROUND -6C AND PERSISTENT WNW                  
WINDS...LAKE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN --                     
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IMPACT OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW               
SHOWS UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH INVERSIONS LOWERING TO AROUND 6.5            
KFT BY AFTERNOON (STILL VERY RESPECTABLE). HOWEVER...WITH 850-500 MB            
RH FALLING FROM 90% AT 1200 UTC TO AROUND 60% BY 0000 UTC...PRECIP              
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD BY EVENING.                 
SURFACE BASED MELTING LAYERS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW             
OVER INTERIOR AREAS EARLY...GIVING WAY TO MIXED RAIN/SNOW BY                    
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE SHORELINES...A MIX EARLY WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN            
AS MELTING LAYERS EASILY EXCEED 1200 FT. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN             
INCH POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER AND NEAR WHITEFISH               
BAY...MAINLY BEFORE NOON.                                                       
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON SAT NIGHT. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED              
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FIRST PART OF              
THE NIGHT...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LIFTED PARCELS WILL HAVE            
AN INCREASINGLY TOUGH TIME REACHING -10C.                                       
SUNDAY...LAKE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY               
SUNNY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
AND PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE...LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND DRYING. HIGHS              
WILL PEAK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                              
MONDAY...WAA WILL COMMENCE AS RIDGE PUSHES E. AT 850 MB...TEMPS WILL            
MODERATE FROM AROUND +2C AT 1200 UTC TO NEAR +8C BY 0000 UTC TUE.               
SIMILARLY...850 MB DEW POINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR +6C. INCREASING                 
MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MON               
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS...THOUGH LARGE-SCALE JET SUPPORT APPEARS                   
LIMITED.                                                                        
REMAINDER OF FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MORE UNSETTLED                 
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT              
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT                 
REGARDING THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL                
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN U.S. AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE                
OVER THE ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS A SURFACE LOW               
QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO BY LATE TUES...THE GFS             
KEEP ONLY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH               
WED BEFORE LIFTING A MUCH MORE INTENSE SURFACE LOW INTO THE REGION              
BY THUR. THE GEM GENERALLY APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH              
ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAN TO NCEP MANUAL PROGS. WILL                     
RELUCTANTLY KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH FRI               
PERIOD...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF INVERTED TROUGH...WAA (ESPECIALLY EARLY             
IN PERIOD)...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND RISK THAT INVERTED TROUGH MAY                  
ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS (WHICH LATEST GFS STILL SUGGESTS              
MAY HAPPEN).                                                                    
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                      
    ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016-017-019-021-022-026-027-028-                    
    032-033.                                                                    
    GALE WARNING...TONIGHT...LMZ323-341-342-344-LHZ345>349.                     
    WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...MIZ020-025-031.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
935 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO               
SHOW THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.            
A POTENT SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER                        
LOW...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND                 
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOCAL LAPS/WRF-ARW AND NAM SHOW A GOOD               
SHOT OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF THIS                        
FEATURE...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON             
THE 2PVU SURFACE OF THE GFS. THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING HAS HELPED                
RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MOISTEN THE COLUMN OVER THE PAST FEW                
HOURS...WHICH HAS IN TURN ALLOWED FOR THE EXPANSION AND                         
INTENSIFICATION OF LES ACROSS THE CWFA. 500MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO              
AROUND -34C WITH THE SHORTWAVE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES                         
CONSIDERABLY. WINDS HAVE BACKED AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND WILL               
VEER AFTER IT PASSES BY. LES BANDING CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR IS                 
LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME INCH/HR SNOWFALL RATES...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS            
ARE SHIFTING A BIT SO MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT STAYING UNDER THE                  
HEAVIEST RETURNS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.                                
BY 06Z THE SHORTWAVE AXIS SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE CWFA...WITH             
GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING ADVERTISED BEHIND IT. THE 00Z              
CWPL SOUNDING SHOWS THINGS HAVE DRIED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY WITH SOME               
WARMING NOTED IN THE MID LEVELS. THE FORMATION OF A SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION ALONG WITH THE DRYING MID LEVELS AND ARRIVAL OF Q-VECTOR              
CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE LES QUITE A BIT DURING THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING               
MORE NORTHWESTERLY...TRAJECTORIES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE            
MUCH SHORTER...HELPING TO FURTHER LIMIT LES INTO THAT AREA.                     
HOWEVER...THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD HELP BOOST LAKE EFFECT PCPN             
FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE EASTERN CWFA UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER               
AIR LATER TONIGHT. THE CURRENT HEADLINES ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT                   
MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STILL WORK OUT OKAY. THE PCPN WON/T                     
STOP...BUT THERE SHOULD BE A GENERAL DIMINISHING TREND AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS. THE GOING ZONE FORECAST HAS                
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE UPDATES TO THE ZONE              
TEXT...AND WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST GRIDS.                  
TRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO                
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE S AS A PAIR             
OF SHRTWVS ON ITS WRN FLANK ARE ROTATING TO THE S. THE FIRST OF                 
THESE SHRTWVS IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP AND HAS CAUSED A GOOD               
DEAL OF SHSN...MIXED WITH RA NR LK SUP/LOWER ELEVATIONS...OVER                  
MAINLY THE WRN CWA IN AREAS FVRD BY MOIST CYC WNW FLOW. CALUMET AND             
A LOCATION NR PELKIE ALG THE BARAGA/CMX COUNTY LINE REPORTED THE                
MOST SN OVERNGT ACRS THE FA...6.0 INCHES. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS SHOW HI RH            
THRU THE DEPTH OF THE TROP. HOWEVER...MID LVL TEMPS ARE HIER AT INL             
THAN GRB/APX IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHRTWV EVEN THOUGH HIER RH LINGERS.             
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST H5-H3 WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE E SIDE OF THE            
UPR LO...A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SHRTWV ROTATING TO THE              
SW ACRS NW ONTARIO/NE MANITOBA PER WV IMAGERY. STEADY SN WITH VSBY              
AOB 1 MILE FALLING ACRS NW ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV.                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES.                 
ALTHOUGH SHSN MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATE TDAY AS SOMEWHAT WARMER MID               
LVL TEMPS AT INL/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHRTWV              
MOVE OVHD WITH H85 TEMPS ARND ONLY -7C...SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP            
AGAIN FOR A TIME THIS EVNG WITH APRCH OF SECOND SHRTWV FCST TO DIG              
NR INL BY 00Z SAT AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. THE                
HEAVIEST SN WL FALL OVER HIER TERRAIN FM IWD AND MARENISCO-ROCKLAND             
AND KENTON-WATTON...PELKIE AND PAINESDALE WHERE NAM/GFS SHOW                    
SHARPEST H95 CNVGC IN LLVL WNW FLOW. ALTHOUGH H95 CNVGC FCST TO                 
SHARPEN NR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS OVER THE E...LONG FETCH ACRS              
THE WARM WATERS OF LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CHILLY H85            
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA IN THESE AREAS THAT WOULD            
BE SEEING SN IF THIS STORM WERE OCCURRING IN NOV-DEC. ONCE THE                  
SHRTWV PASSES AND MOVES TO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z SAT...SN/RA INTENSITY              
WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY OVER THE W AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/H85-5               
QVECTOR CNVGC/LOSS OF DEEP MSTR. HOWEVER...WL CONT HI POPS EVEN AFT             
ARRIVAL OF THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AS GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW                   
LINGERING MSTR IN CYC FLOW DEEP ENUF TO KEEP -10C ISOTHERM IN THE               
MOIST LYR UNTIL ALMOST 12Z SAT. GOING WRNGS OVER THE W APPEAR IN                
ORDER...BUT WL GO WITH AN ADVY FOR NRN CMX COUNTY THRU MIDNGT AS                
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HEAVIER SN OVER HIER TERRAIN S OF CMX. THE            
REMAINDER OF THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE LESSER AMTS WITH MORE NW FLOW/             
WEAKER CNVGC. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING SHRTWV PASSAGE MAY ALSO                 
CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE E. HOWEVER...              
PCPN TYPE ISSUES AS WELL AS LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (NO MORE              
THAN 3-6 HRS) OF COINCIDENT DYNAMICS/LK ENHANCEMENT/FVRL FLOW SHOULD            
LIMIT SN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE E EVEN WELL INLAND OF LK SUP ENUF TO            
AVOID NEED FOR HEADLINE.                                                        
ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME DPVA AND H85-5                   
QVECTOR CNVGC WL ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE FA ON SAT...               
THESE MODELS AND UKMET ADVERTISE A 12HR H5 HGT RISE OF AOA 100M                 
DURING THE DAY AS RIBBON OF HIER H5-3 WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF UPR                
TROF PRESENT THIS MRNG LIFT THE SYS TO THE N. SO EVEN THOUGH THERE              
MAY BE SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHRASN ON SAT AS A RESULT OF               
THIS SHRTWV PASSAGE IN AREAS MOISTENED/DESTABILIZED BY FCST 290                 
WIND...LARGER SCALE WEAKENING OF THE CYC CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT              
IN DIMINISHING PCPN OVERALL WITH RISING MID LVL TEMPS/DRYING.                   
DAYTIME HI TEMPS WL RECOVER TOWARD 45 OVER THE SE ZNS WHERE WNW FLOW            
DOWNSLOPES PER MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST SDNGS.                                 
SLOW H5 HGT RISES FCST ON SAT NGT AS VORTEX LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N.              
WITH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN/GRDLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW...EXPECT                
LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN TO WIND DOWN AND END OVER ALL BUT THE                  
KEWEENAW/FAR ERN ZNS NR LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AS FLOW BACKS TO NEARLY               
DUE W. SINCE INVRN LOWERS SO MUCH THAT MOIST LYR WARMS ABV -10C...              
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SKIES WL CLR OVER THE             
SCNTRL...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL WELL BLO 32. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW LLVL            
WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT REALLY NOSEDIVE.            
SUN SHOULD BE THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH RDG OF              
HI PRES DOMINATING UNDER CONFLUENT RISING HGTS BTWN DEPARTING TROF              
IN SE CAN AND DVLPG TROF IN THE PAC NW. MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST               
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING TOWARD 50 ACRS THE SCNTRL. LOOK FOR LO             
TEMPS SUN NGT TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY AT NGT BEFORE WAD CLD                   
DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING IN THE NRN ROCKIES ROLLS IN LATER.                       
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PORTION OF THE FCST WL FEATURE A DEEPENING            
TROF OVER THE W EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT TRANSITIONS TO A HI AMPLITUDE            
UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL NAMERICA BY WEEK'S END SANDWICHED BTWN RDGS OFF             
THE W AND E COASTS AND ANOTHER OVER GREENLAND. WAD TO THE E OF THE              
DEEPENING TROF WL SUPPORT A CHC OF RA ON MON INTO WED. QUESTIONS                
REMAIN AS TO THE INTENSITY OF A SFC LO FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE UPR GRT            
LKS ON TUE. ECMWF SHOWS THE DEEPEST SOLN/STORM TRACK FARTHER W WHILE            
06Z GFS SHOWS THE WEAKEST LO WITH A NUMBER OF UNPHASED SHRTWVS                  
RIDING THRU THE GENERAL TROFFINESS DVLPG TO THE W. GFS DVLPS A                  
DEEPER SFC LO NEXT THU. NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE USED A BLEND OF THESE              
SOLNS THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD UKMET. WL FOLLOW              
THIS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK OF AGREEMENT ON FCST DETAILS               
AMONGST THE OPS MODELS. THE NCEP FCST WOULD SUG RA CHCS INTO WED                
FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND A CHC OF SHRASN BEFORE A              
DRIER DAY NEXT FRI AS WEAK HI PRES RDG BLDS INTO THE UPR LKS.                   
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN FEATURING TROF IN CNTRL NAMERICA/BLOCKING RDG              
OVER GREENLAND SUGS GENERALLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FORSEEABLE               
FUTURE.                                                                         
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MIZ002-009.                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MIZ004-084.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL MIDNGT EDT MIZ003.                                  
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
408 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE/SATELLITE/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
507DM 500MB LOW...AND ASSOCIATED 980MB SURFACE LOW ROTATING JUST                
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND             
PARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...ONE WHICH IS JUST PASSING EAST OF THE            
REGION WITH ANOTHER ROTATING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.                  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT THE                  
COLUMN WITH 12Z 850MB RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING -6C TO -7C ACROSS THE               
GREAT LAKE REGION AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.             
AS EXPECTED...LAKE EFFECT MACHINE STILL GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
LAKES...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING             
WITH LOSS OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL DISRUPTION. MOST LOWER               
ELEVATION AREAS HAVE CHANGED OVER TO A RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH THE WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. ELEVATED AREAS HAVE                  
REMAINED PREDOMINATELY SNOW...ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL                   
ACCUMULATION AS EVEN THERE TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE ABOVE FREEZING.               
MANY FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WITH REGARDS TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL               
AMOUNTS...ONGOING MARINE AND WINTER HEADLINES...AND WIND ISSUES                 
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                            
TONIGHT...AFTER BRIEF OVERALL LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS                         
EVENING...EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP AS ONTARIO                   
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF 700MB-500MB DIVQ APPROACH THE                
REGION. IN ADDITION TO ABOVE SUPPORT...OTHER PARAMETERS REMAIN VERY             
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUATION OF LAKE EFFECT. OVER WATER INSTABILITY               
REMAINS EXTREME WITH DELTA T/S REMAINING AROUND 20C...900MB-700MB               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 70 PERCENT...LITTLE WIND SHEAR IN THE                   
CBL...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AT NEARLY 15KFT. SO LITTLE DOUBT LAKE               
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PRIMARY CONCERNS CENTER ON              
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY COMING AROUND TO 270            
DEGREES BY 06Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER AND ABOUT 280 DEGREES OVER             
THE EASTERN UPPER. GIVEN EXPECTED WIND FIELD...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG            
AND WEST OF I-75 IN THE NORTHERN LOWER AND NEAR WHITEFISH POINT IN              
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE EFFECT. AS             
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD              
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER                    
ELEVATED AREAS...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. GIVEN MODIFIED AIR                
MASS...FEEL WARM LAKE INFLUENCES WILL HAVE MORE OF AN                           
AFFECT..LEADING TO SOME MIX NEAR THE COASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH             
LIQUID WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW WILL HELP KEEP TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS             
DOWN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL MORE ADDITIONAL                  
INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH A            
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WHITEFISH POINT. WILL THEREFORE EXTEND            
THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR CURRENT AREA AND ADD IN                  
CRAWFORD COUNTY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS                  
SHOULD BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS            
POSSIBLE. WILL ALLOW ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO EXPIRE.                       
WILL EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AFFECTED COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE               
MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH 06Z AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OVER WATER            
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS 45 MPH GUST POTENTIAL. BY LATER                            
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RESULTING IN                    
DECREASED WIND SPEEDS.                                                          
MARINE...WILL CONTINUE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL NEARSHORE                  
WATERS...EXCLUDING WHITEFISH BAY AND THE SAINT MARYS RIVER...THROUGH            
09Z. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKES CONTINUES TO              
SUPPORT 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL.                                                 
MSB                                                                             
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP/STACKED/BAROTROPIC LOW WILL BE               
CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY SAT. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE                
ROTATES AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW AND LIFTS NE...THIS WILL              
ALLOW UPPER LOW TO FINALLY LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...            
WITH 850 MB TEMPS STILL HOVERING AROUND -6C AND PERSISTENT WNW                  
WINDS...LAKE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN --                     
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IMPACT OF DEPARTING UPPER LOW               
SHOWS UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH INVERSIONS LOWERING TO AROUND 6.5            
KFT BY AFTERNOON (STILL VERY RESPECTABLE). HOWEVER...WITH 850-500 MB            
RH FALLING FROM 90% AT 1200 UTC TO AROUND 60% BY 0000 UTC...PRECIP              
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD BY EVENING.                 
SURFACE BASED MELTING LAYERS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW             
OVER INTERIOR AREAS EARLY...GIVING WAY TO MIXED RAIN/SNOW BY                    
AFTERNOON. NEAR THE SHORELINES...A MIX EARLY WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN            
AS MELTING LAYERS EASILY EXCEED 1200 FT. ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN             
INCH POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER AND NEAR WHITEFISH               
BAY...MAINLY BEFORE NOON.                                                       
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON SAT NIGHT. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED              
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE FIRST PART OF              
THE NIGHT...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LIFTED PARCELS WILL HAVE            
AN INCREASINGLY TOUGH TIME REACHING -10C.                                       
SUNDAY...LAKE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP...AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY               
SUNNY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES               
AND PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE...LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND DRYING. HIGHS              
WILL PEAK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.                                              
MONDAY...WAA WILL COMMENCE AS RIDGE PUSHES E. AT 850 MB...TEMPS WILL            
MODERATE FROM AROUND +2C AT 1200 UTC TO NEAR +8C BY 0000 UTC TUE.               
SIMILARLY...850 MB DEW POINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR +6C. INCREASING                 
MOISTURE IN RETURN FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR LIGHT RAIN BY MON               
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS...THOUGH LARGE-SCALE JET SUPPORT APPEARS                   
LIMITED.                                                                        
REMAINDER OF FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MORE UNSETTLED                 
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN THE OFFING FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT              
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT                 
REGARDING THE DETAILS. GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL                
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WRN U.S. AS DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE                
OVER THE ERN CONUS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS A SURFACE LOW               
QUICKLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO BY LATE TUES...THE GFS             
KEEP ONLY AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH               
WED BEFORE LIFTING A MUCH MORE INTENSE SURFACE LOW INTO THE REGION              
BY THUR. THE GEM GENERALLY APPEARS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF. WITH              
ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAN TO NCEP MANUAL PROGS. WILL                     
RELUCTANTLY KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH FRI               
PERIOD...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF INVERTED TROUGH...WAA (ESPECIALLY EARLY             
IN PERIOD)...SW FLOW ALOFT...AND RISK THAT INVERTED TROUGH MAY                  
ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO CYCLOGENESIS (WHICH LATEST GFS STILL SUGGESTS              
MAY HAPPEN).                                                                    
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW                      
    ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016-017-019-021-022-026-027-028-                    
    032-033.                                                                    
    GALE WARNING...TONIGHT...LMZ323-341-342-344-LHZ345>349.                     
    WIND ADVISORY...THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...MIZ020-025-031.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO                
OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE S AS A PAIR             
OF SHRTWVS ON ITS WRN FLANK ARE ROTATING TO THE S. THE FIRST OF                 
THESE SHRTWVS IS NOW MOVING INTO WRN LK SUP AND HAS CAUSED A GOOD               
DEAL OF SHSN...MIXED WITH RA NR LK SUP/LOWER ELEVATIONS...OVER                  
MAINLY THE WRN CWA IN AREAS FVRD BY MOIST CYC WNW FLOW. CALUMET AND             
A LOCATION NR PELKIE ALG THE BARAGA/CMX COUNTY LINE REPORTED THE                
MOST SN OVERNGT ACRS THE FA...6.0 INCHES. LOCAL 12Z RAOBS SHOW HI RH            
THRU THE DEPTH OF THE TROP. HOWEVER...MID LVL TEMPS ARE HIER AT INL             
THAN GRB/APX IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHRTWV EVEN THOUGH HIER RH LINGERS.             
ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST H5-H3 WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE E SIDE OF THE            
UPR LO...A SECOND RATHER IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SHRTWV ROTATING TO THE              
SW ACRS NW ONTARIO/NE MANITOBA PER WV IMAGERY. STEADY SN WITH VSBY              
AOB 1 MILE FALLING ACRS NW ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHRTWV.                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES.                 
ALTHOUGH SHSN MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATE TDAY AS SOMEWHAT WARMER MID               
LVL TEMPS AT INL/DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC IN WAKE OF INITIAL SHRTWV              
MOVE OVHD WITH H85 TEMPS ARND ONLY -7C...SUSPECT ACTIVITY WL PICK UP            
AGAIN FOR A TIME THIS EVNG WITH APRCH OF SECOND SHRTWV FCST TO DIG              
NR INL BY 00Z SAT AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC. THE                
HEAVIEST SN WL FALL OVER HIER TERRAIN FM IWD AND MARENISCO-ROCKLAND             
AND KENTON-WATTON...PELKIE AND PAINESDALE WHERE NAM/GFS SHOW                    
SHARPEST H95 CNVGC IN LLVL WNW FLOW. ALTHOUGH H95 CNVGC FCST TO                 
SHARPEN NR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS OVER THE E...LONG FETCH ACRS              
THE WARM WATERS OF LK SUP IN CONCERT WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CHILLY H85            
AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A MIX WITH RA IN THESE AREAS THAT WOULD            
BE SEEING SN IF THIS STORM WERE OCCURRING IN NOV-DEC. ONCE THE                  
SHRTWV PASSES AND MOVES TO NRN LWR MI BY 12Z SAT...SN/RA INTENSITY              
WL DIMINISH SGNFTLY OVER THE W AFT 06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/H85-5               
QVECTOR CNVGC/LOSS OF DEEP MSTR. HOWEVER...WL CONT HI POPS EVEN AFT             
ARRIVAL OF THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS AS GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW                   
LINGERING MSTR IN CYC FLOW DEEP ENUF TO KEEP -10C ISOTHERM IN THE               
MOIST LYR UNTIL ALMOST 12Z SAT. GOING WRNGS OVER THE W APPEAR IN                
ORDER...BUT WL GO WITH AN ADVY FOR NRN CMX COUNTY THRU MIDNGT AS                
WELL TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HEAVIER SN OVER HIER TERRAIN S OF CMX. THE            
REMAINDER OF THE KEWEENAW SHOULD SEE LESSER AMTS WITH MORE NW FLOW/             
WEAKER CNVGC. WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING SHRTWV PASSAGE MAY ALSO                 
CAUSE LK EFFECT PCPN TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE E. HOWEVER...              
PCPN TYPE ISSUES AS WELL AS LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY (NO MORE              
THAN 3-6 HRS) OF COINCIDENT DYNAMICS/LK ENHANCEMENT/FVRL FLOW SHOULD            
LIMIT SN ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE E EVEN WELL INLAND OF LK SUP ENUF TO            
AVOID NEED FOR HEADLINE.                                                        
ALTHOUGH GFS/NAM HINT ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV/SOME DPVA AND H85-5                   
QVECTOR CNVGC WL ROTATE ARND THE UPR LO AND OVER THE FA ON SAT...               
THESE MODELS AND UKMET ADVERTISE A 12HR H5 HGT RISE OF AOA 100M                 
DURING THE DAY AS RIBBON OF HIER H5-3 WINDS ON THE E SIDE OF UPR                
TROF PRESENT THIS MRNG LIFT THE SYS TO THE N. SO EVEN THOUGH THERE              
MAY BE SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT OF THE SHRASN ON SAT AS A RESULT OF               
THIS SHRTWV PASSAGE IN AREAS MOISTENED/DESTABILIZED BY FCST 290                 
WIND...LARGER SCALE WEAKENING OF THE CYC CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT              
IN DIMINISHING PCPN OVERALL WITH RISING MID LVL TEMPS/DRYING.                   
DAYTIME HI TEMPS WL RECOVER TOWARD 45 OVER THE SE ZNS WHERE WNW FLOW            
DOWNSLOPES PER MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST SDNGS.                                 
SLOW H5 HGT RISES FCST ON SAT NGT AS VORTEX LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE N.              
WITH LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN/GRDLY WEAKENING CYC FLOW...EXPECT                
LINGERING LK EFFECT PCPN TO WIND DOWN AND END OVER ALL BUT THE                  
KEWEENAW/FAR ERN ZNS NR LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AS FLOW BACKS TO NEARLY               
DUE W. SINCE INVRN LOWERS SO MUCH THAT MOIST LYR WARMS ABV -10C...              
ANY LINGERING PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LGT SIDE. SKIES WL CLR OVER THE             
SCNTRL...WHERE TEMPS SHOULD FALL WELL BLO 32. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW LLVL            
WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY...SO TEMPS SHOULD NOT REALLY NOSEDIVE.            
SUN SHOULD BE THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE WITH RDG OF              
HI PRES DOMINATING UNDER CONFLUENT RISING HGTS BTWN DEPARTING TROF              
IN SE CAN AND DVLPG TROF IN THE PAC NW. MIXING TO H85 ON GFS FCST               
SDNGS YIELDS HI TEMPS RISING TOWARD 50 ACRS THE SCNTRL. LOOK FOR LO             
TEMPS SUN NGT TO OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY AT NGT BEFORE WAD CLD                   
DOWNSTREAM OF TROFFING IN THE NRN ROCKIES ROLLS IN LATER.                       
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PORTION OF THE FCST WL FEATURE A DEEPENING            
TROF OVER THE W EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT TRANSITIONS TO A HI AMPLITUDE            
UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL NAMERICA BY WEEK'S END SANDWICHED BTWN RDGS OFF             
THE W AND E COASTS AND ANOTHER OVER GREENLAND. WAD TO THE E OF THE              
DEEPENING TROF WL SUPPORT A CHC OF RA ON MON INTO WED. QUESTIONS                
REMAIN AS TO THE INTENSITY OF A SFC LO FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE UPR GRT            
LKS ON TUE. ECMWF SHOWS THE DEEPEST SOLN/STORM TRACK FARTHER W WHILE            
06Z GFS SHOWS THE WEAKEST LO WITH A NUMBER OF UNPHASED SHRTWVS                  
RIDING THRU THE GENERAL TROFFINESS DVLPG TO THE W. GFS DVLPS A                  
DEEPER SFC LO NEXT THU. NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE USED A BLEND OF THESE              
SOLNS THAT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD UKMET. WL FOLLOW              
THIS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE GENERAL LACK OF AGREEMENT ON FCST DETAILS               
AMONGST THE OPS MODELS. THE NCEP FCST WOULD SUG RA CHCS INTO WED                
FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND A CHC OF SHRASN BEFORE A              
DRIER DAY NEXT FRI AS WEAK HI PRES RDG BLDS INTO THE UPR LKS.                   
NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN FEATURING TROF IN CNTRL NAMERICA/BLOCKING RDG              
OVER GREENLAND SUGS GENERALLY BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE FORSEEABLE               
FUTURE.                                                                         
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MIZ002-009.                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MIZ004-084.                         
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVY UNTIL MIDNGT EDT MIZ003.                                  
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERN ON UPDATE IS CONTINUING WINTER STORM WARNING OVER HOUGHTON              
AND KEWEENAW COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING.                                          
BASED ON SPOTTER REPORTS...SFC OBS AND WEBCAM IMAGES DOESN'T LOOK               
LIKE MUCH OF ANYTHING IS HAPPENING OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OTHER            
THAN FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. WARMER BOUNDARY LYR TEMPS...MID-LVL                 
DRYING AS NOTED ON NAM FCST SNDGS BY 18Z ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF                 
Q-VECT DIV SHOULD MAINTAIN QUIET WX THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.              
AND WHILE THERE IS A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE                
AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING...THE BRIEF ENHANCEMENT FROM THIS             
SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY LESS THAN THE             
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES. SO HAVE ELECTED TO DROP THE WINTER               
STORM WARNING FOR THESE COUNTIES.                                               
ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP WSW HEADLINES GOING FOR THE REST OF THE WRN               
COUNTIES TODAY AS THERE COULD STILL BE SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW                
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS WELL AS LAKE ENHANCED SNOW THIS EVENING.                
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES TRENDS/PCPN TYPE AND HEADLINES.                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOBS SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY              
DEEP MIDLEVEL LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CENTERED OVER ONTARIO TO THE            
N OF LAKE SUPERIOR. 500MB HEIGHT IS AROUND 505DM AT THE CENTER...               
WHICH IS AROUND 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MOST PROMINENT            
SHORTWAVE OF CONCERN WITHIN CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO             
TO FAR SW HUDSON BAY. AIRMASS AROUND THE W AND S SIDE OF CIRCULATION            
HAS MODIFIED AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM.                 
850MB TEMPS AT CWPL/KINL HAVE RISEN FROM -11C/-10C AT 12Z/12OCT TO              
-5C/-6C AT 00Z. THIS WARMING AND RESULTING ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS                
ENHANCED THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND THE MIDLEVEL LOW.            
00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN TO 300MB...AND               
THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS THAT IS STREAMING OVER UPPER              
MI. ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS HAVE RISEN...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS IMPROVED             
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF DEEP MOISTURE. AT THE SFC...DEEP 974MB LOW                
LOCATED NEAR CWPL AT 00Z HAS ROTATED S TO NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AS OF               
07Z.                                                                            
NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WOBBLING CENTER OF MIDLEVEL LOW TO             
THE SE TODAY...PASSING VERY NEAR THE NE SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                 
DESPITE THIS...500MB HEIGHTS ARE TO RISE ABOUT 70M ACROSS UPPER MI              
BTWN 12Z AND 00Z. SO IN GENERAL...SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL DIMINISH                
TODAY UNTIL THERE IS A SHOT OF BETTER FORCING TIED TO AFOREMENTIONED            
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN ONTARIO. MODELS SHOW THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING              
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND REACHING LWR MI IN THE 06-12Z TIME                  
FRAME. DEEP LAYER QVECTOR FIELDS (850-300MB) SHOW THE EXPECTED                  
CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC FORCING NICELY WITH A PERIOD OF QVECTOR                      
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING TODAY...AND THEN A PERIOD OF QVECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE AFTN THRU                    
TONIGHT. SNOW INTENSITY TRENDS WILL FOLLOW THIS PATTERN. AS FOR                 
THERMAL PROFILE AND PCPN TYPE...850MB TEMPS TODAY ARE PROGGED TO                
REMAIN NEAR CURRENT READINGS...AROUND -6/-7C...AND THEN FALL A                  
DEGREE OR SO TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE. FCST SOUNDINGS                  
INDICATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SFC BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER TODAY              
AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE             
36-41F RANGE AT KP59 AND AT THE UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE                       
CANAL...AND WRN BUOY SHOWS AN AIR TEMP OF 41F. CAN PROBABLY SAFELY              
ASSUME THAT PCPN TYPE HAS CHANGED OR IS CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN                 
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. PTYPE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY LIQUID THERE                    
TODAY/TONIGHT WITH NO MEANINGFUL CAA. THIS LEAVES INLAND AREAS FOR              
AN EXTEMELY CHALLENGING SNOW ACCUMULATION FCST. FIRST...IT WILL BE              
TOUGH TO DETERMINE JUST HOW FAR INLAND/HOW HIGH UP THE TERRAIN RAIN             
WILL MIX WITH SNOW TODAY...AND SECOND...FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING             
TODAY...RESULTING IN DECREASING PCPN INTENSITY. THEN THERE SHOULD BE            
A PERIOD OF INCREASED PCPN INTENSITY LATE AFTN/EVENING WITH PASSAGE             
OF SHORTWAVE. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TODAY             
TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE DEEP LAYER FORCING DIMINISHES.                     
SUBJECTIVE MODIFICATION OF LES DECISION TREE FOR DIMINISHED FORCING             
AND POSSIBLE MIX WITH RAIN LEADS TO A 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATION RANGE AS            
BEST ESTIMATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO WATCH            
PCPN TYPE CHANGES CLOSELY THRU THE MORNING/AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE                 
QUESTION THAT RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW EVEN AT SOME OF THE HIGHER                
ELEVATIONS AND CUT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ALREADY DURING THE            
OVERNIGHT...RAIN HAS MIXED WITH THE SNOW IN THE HOUGHTON VCNTY PER              
KCMX OB AND REPORT FROM HOUGHTON COUNTY SHERIFF. WITH ALL THAT                  
SAID...NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM FOR ONGOING HEADLINES WITH THIS FCST             
ISSUANCE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME HEADLINES MAY NEED TO             
BE DOWNGRADED IN THE AFTN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN MIXES WITH               
THE SNOW.                                                                       
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVY FOR DELTA COUNTY...MAINLY FOR THE                       
STONINGTON/GARDEN PENINSULAS WHICH ARE EXPOSED TO STRONG WSW WINDS              
BLOWING ACROSS THE NRN BAY OF GREEN BAY. SUSTAINED WINDS TO 30 MPH              
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET THERE THIS MORNING.                   
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE LATE AFTN/EVENING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN             
PCPN INTENSITY AND POSSIBLY A SHORT PERIOD OF MDT/HVY SNOW OVER THE             
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN UPPER MI. PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE             
SHORTWAVE SHOULD THEN BRING A VERY QUICK DIMINISHING TREND TO SNOW              
BEGINNING LATE EVENING AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT EVENING                   
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE. TO THE E OF MARQUETTE...             
WINDS VEERING TO THE NW WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT PCPN FIRMLY INTO THAT            
AREA. HOWEVER...PTYPE ISSUES AND THE VERY SHORT PERIOD OF SYNOPTIC              
FORCING CORRESPONDING WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION SUGGEST            
NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. WITH LONGER FETCH OVER THE 50F WATER...             
LAKESHORE LOCATIONS (AU TRAIN/MUNISING/GRAND MARAIS ETC) SHOULD SEE             
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT...AND RAIN WILL PROBABLY MIX WITH SNOW FOR A                
GOOD DISTANCE INLAND. IN ANYCASE...DAYSHIFT WILL STILL NEED TO                  
EXAMINE THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADVY INLAND.                              
WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...HEIGHTS RISE SUBSTANTIALLY SAT              
(100-160M AT 500MB) AND MIDLEVEL LOW RECENTERS ITSELF NEAR THE SW               
SHORE OF HUDSON BAY. AIRMASS SAT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH               
(850MB TEMPS AROUND -7C) TO SUPPORT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN.              
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK WRLY THRU THE DAY...PUSHING PCPN AREAS TO                  
MAINLY N OF KIWD ON THE W END AND TO MAINLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF            
MUNISING BY LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO            
WIND DOWN SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA.                                         
QUITE WEATHER EXPECTED SUN/SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING BEFORE PATTERN            
CHANGES AS TROF AMPLIFICATION OCCURS OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH SW FLOW            
DEVELOPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE...MAY SEE RAIN BREAK               
OUT AS EARLY MON AFTN.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRI MIZ002-009.                        
 LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRI MIZ004-084.                    
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
ROLFSON (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1050 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERN FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS 978 MB                   
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEAR THE NORTHERN SHORES OF LAKE                
SUPERIOR. DESPITE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WINDS ARE                      
STRUGGLING TO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD                     
PORTION OF THE AREA...MAINLY DUE A COUPLE OF FACTORS /LACK OF                   
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...INADEQUATE SUPERPOSITION OF THE UPPER               
JET AXIS...AND LACK OF STRONG ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT TO THE WIND/.               
AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED THE WIND ADVISORY...LIMITING IT TO THE               
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY...WITH CLIMATOLOGY/NATURE OF THE GROUND                  
COVER MORE FAVORABLE IN THIS REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN                   
ADDITION TO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS MORE SUITABLE FOR MIXING.                    
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM              
FORECAST...WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND LATEST MODEL DATA                
FAVORING THE GOING FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES                  
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                         
PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE ARE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS               
TDY. POLAR VORTEX HAS RETROGRADED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND NOW                
IS DRIFTING OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT 974               
MB HAS DRIVEN A TIGHT MSLP GRDT INTO THE NRN FCST AREA THIS MRNG.               
H8 FLOW OF 55 TO 65 KT SEEN ON EVENING RAOBS NOW ATOP THIS AREA                 
AND PROGGED BY THE RUC MODEL TO EVOLVE SW BEFORE DECREASING                     
SLIGHTLY BY AFTN. THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT HAVE MIXED DOWN IN                   
GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH ALREADY AND THINK POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE                
OVER REST OF MN FA TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN              
OVER SW MN. DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS UP TO                
825MB SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIX DOWN OF GUSTS WELL UP TO ADVISORY                    
CRITERIA. PURE GRADIENT OVER ERN MN NEAR TWIN CITIES METRO SHOULD               
ALSO ENABLE SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THESE MORE CLOUDY PLACES TO STAY                
UP 30 TO 35 MPH INTO THE AFTN.                                                  
OTHER CONCERN FOR TDY IS SHWR POTENTIAL. TWIRLING SYSTEM HAS                    
WRAPPED STRONG MID AND UPPER LVL WINDS WITH PRESENT H3 DIVERGENCE               
BULLSEYE OVER NRN/WRN WI WHERE SNOW SHWRS HAVE BEEN TRAVERSING                  
THRU THE EARLY MRNG. MID LVL WARM AIR IN THE WRAPAROUND JET ALSO                
INDICATED ON CANADIAN RAOBS LAST EVE HAS LED TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE              
INTO THIS AREA. RUC MDL CONTINUES THIS SUPPORT THRU LATE MRNG FOR               
FAR NE COUNTIES AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE THERE. BY LATE               
MRNG SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT AND POSSIBLY EXPAND BACK              
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY. MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT WHAT THEY WERE                   
YESTERDAY SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAR LESS. MAX TEMPS TDY CLIMBING                
MORE WITH BUILDING THICKNESSES...ESPECIALLY IN SW FA. SHOWERS MAY               
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO TONIGHT OVER WRN WI WITH ONE FINAL POTENT               
VORT LOBE ROTATING SWRD. BEST QG FORCING IS EAST OF FA THOUGH SO                
HAVE CHC POPS ONLY.                                                             
ONE MORE CONCERN FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE IS RECORD COLD POTENTIAL                 
TONIGHT OVER WRN AND SWRN FA AND FOR SAT NIGHT OVER CTRL AND ERN                
FA. BDL WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT BUT UPSTREAM TEMPS IN THE DAKOTAS                 
THIS MORNING WERE NEAR 20F DESPITE THESE WINDS. HAVE NUDGED DOWN                
TEMPS TONIGHT NEAR THESE VALUES OUT WEST. IT APPEARS THE RECORD                 
LOWS AT BOTH KAXN AND KRWF WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. ONLY A CHANCE FOR               
CIRRUS ON SAT NIGHT WITH FAR LIGHTER WINDS SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS               
FAR COOLER MAV GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD BE NEAR OR AT RECORD LOW TEMPS              
FOR ERN MN AND WRN WI.                                                          
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
TREND IS STILL THERE FOR A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE AREA            
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INITIAL SPLIT REGIME WITH AN UPPER LOW KICKING             
OUT TO OUR SE WILL KEEP MOST PRECIP EARLY PART OF MONDAY SE OF OUR              
AREA. SOMEWHAT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WEST OF US WILL CAUSE SOME RAIN            
TO DEVELOP OVER DAKOTAS AND NW PART OF OUR CWA ON MONDAY AND BETTER             
CHANCE OVER ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE POPS                 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT HANGS ON TO HIGHER               
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AS BOTH GFS AND             
ECMWF SHOW A BREAK..WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA             
BY WEDNESDAY. THE SLIGHT CHANCE IS OK TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY               
FOR NOW..WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX BEHIND THE TROUGH.                  
MILDER TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIRLY CLOSE              
TO NORMAL. ENSEMBLE 850 TEMP ANOMS LOOK COLDER AGAIN BY LATE IN THE             
PERIOD THOUGH.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-          
     CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-               
     MARTIN-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEVENS-SWIFT-                
     WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY(IES).                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTF/JPR/KAT                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1052 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                  
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED LATE THIS MORNING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH A                 
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE AS                    
INDICATED ON THE 12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSES. JUST AHEAD OF THIS SPEED               
MAX A BAND OF MOSTLY MID CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA                
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. GRADUAL                     
CLEARING IS TAKING PLACE AS THE SPEED MAX SHIFTS EAST...WITH BOTH               
THE RUC AND THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTING THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE                    
PUSHING EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. KGSO                
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO A                
NARROW LAYER BETWEEN 750MB AND 650MB. WITH SUBSIDENCE AND                       
DIMINISHING 850MB AND 700MB THETA-E FORECAST...ANTICIPATE MOST OF               
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...IF NOT ALL...ACHIEVING CONSIDERABLE SUN                
BY 21Z. TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON TRACK AND CHANGED LITTLE...NUDGED               
UP A DEGREE IN SOME SPOTS...AS MORNING LOWS COUPLED WITH 1000-                  
850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST 60S SHOULD BE THE RULE...MAINLY LOWER                 
60S IN THE NORTHWEST AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE GIVEN                       
ANTICIPATED SUN DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND AFTERNOON                
CONCERNS WILL BE ON POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION. DEW POINT FORECAST                 
SHOWS READINGS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT IN MANY                  
LOCATIONS. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT.                
WILL REVIEW LATEST GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME OF THE 06Z                
MODEL RUN MOS HAD LOWS OF 35 AT RDU...RWI...AND VUJ. WILL REVIEW                
AFTERNOON DATA AND MAKE ANY MODIFICATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON ZONE                
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THANKS TO GSP FOR MORNING COLLABORATION.                     
GRIDDED AND WORDED AFTERNOON UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 335 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
TODAY: Q-VECTOR FORCING AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JETLET CONTINUE TO             
PRODUCE BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN AL/GA... AND AS THIS JET               
ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASED AND PASSES OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NC THIS                 
MORNING WITH MODERATE Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER NC... EXPECT THE MID            
CLOUDS TO FILL IN FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE            
CWA... BUT MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS... THROUGH MIDDAY. THE POLAR                 
FRONT HAS BEEN DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS            
AND THIS PACE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS               
PLUMMETING. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL OMEGA... WITH SUCH A DRY SUBCLOUD             
LAYER THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN APPEAR SMALL AND WILL GO WITH             
JUST SCATTERED SPRINKLES THIS MORNING OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST                
CWA. EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS PRIMARILY IN            
THE LOWER-MID 60S ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...                  
LATEST MOS GUIDANCE... AND OUR LOCAL MAX TEMP TECHNIQUE WITH A LOW              
LEVEL DRY ADIABATIC PROFILE.                                                    
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH THE MODIFYING            
POLAR HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. CONCERN EXISTS                  
TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED FROST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT WITH                 
SURFACE WINDS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT AND LOW TEMPS IN THE MID             
30S. LOW AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES                 
COLDER THAN URBAN LOCATIONS IN THE TRIAD REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS              
ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30... WHICH WILL RESULT            
IN ENOUGH SPREAD FOR MINIMAL FROST IN THE MILDER LOCATIONS...                   
HOWEVER OUTLYING AREAS MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SUFFICIENT FOR               
PATCHY FROST. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN                  
COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOWS 34-41 ACROSS THE CWA. THE LAST BIG              
BATCH OF VORTICITY SWINGS AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX BASE THROUGH THE              
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE                    
EXPECTED OVER NC INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. MODEL               
THERMAL AND MOISTURE PROFILES DO SUGGEST POSSIBLE OROGRAPHICALLY                
ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... AS A            
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS 65-70                       
SATURDAY... THEN LOWS 35-42 AND HIGHS 66-72 SUNDAY. DUE TO THE GFS'S            
MULTIPLE SUSPECT MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS... PREFER THE NAM'S SLOWER             
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IN            
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. -GIH                                                       
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE             
EJECTION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTEX ISN'T PERFECT BUT IT'S                   
IMPROVING COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS EARLIER THIS WEEK. THE GULF OPENS             
UP STARTING MONDAY WITH A BRISK SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW. ISENTROPIC               
UPGLIDE PICKS UP IN EARNEST MONDAY NIGHT... AND HAVE BROUGHT IN THE             
HIGH CHANCE POPS ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER. THE GFS THEN KEEPS THIS                 
VORTICITY MAX INTACT AS IT TRAVERSES NC... LIKELY OVERBLOWN DUE TO              
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK... WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE WAVE AS IT                   
ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO            
RAISE POPS UP TO LIKELY OR HIGHER ONCE TIMING BECOMES MORE                      
DEFINED... BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS AT HIGH CHANCES THROUGH                   
TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED TUESDAY MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH            
SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES. THEN MEAN RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE GULF UP             
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGHING              
FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO THE SOUTHWEST STATES... AND HAVE HELD ONTO               
THE TRANSITION TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH                       
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL. -GIH                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
ALTOCUMULUS/ALTOSTRATUS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN INTO                 
CENTRAL NC AT 300 AM. THIS JET INDUCED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO                
OVERSPREAD ALL OF CENTRAL NC THROUGH 12Z... THEN EXIT TO THE NE                 
BETWEEN 14Z-19Z. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE               
DAY INTO TONIGHT. -PWB                                                          
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FROST ADVISORY FOR NCZ007-021>023-038-039 FROM 2 AM SATURDAY                    
TO 7 AM SATURDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
840 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES/CLOUD TRENDS AND RESIDUAL              
PCPN CHANCES.                                                                   
HAVE JUST CANNED WIND/SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES AS CONDITIONS            
IMPROVING AS PERSITENT LOW OVER S ONT LIFTS NE AND FILLS. LAST WAVE             
ROTATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH FA HAS PUSHED BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD              
WESTWARD INTO VALLEY REGION HOWEVER NO RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR              
OR ANY INDICATION WITH METARS. CANADIAN RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW -SN             
FEEDING INTO NE MN HOWEVER VSBY'S BETTER THAN 4 MILES OVER OUR NE FA            
SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS NOT EXPECTED BUT WILL KEEP LOW RANGE                
POPS GOING. INTERESTING VORTICIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WATER             
VAPOR IMAGERY IN ZONE OF VERY DRY AIR OVER WESTERN FA. SURFACE                  
DEWPOINTS DROPPED INTO SINGLE DIGITS FROM DVL-JMS WITH RUC SOUNDINGS            
INDICATING PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AT DVL < .20 INCH. WITH DRY AIR              
/SKC AND DIMINISHING WIND AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT MIN                       
TEMPERATURES THIS AREA. MAY LOWER A FEW DEGREES TO BE SAFE AS                   
CURRENT READINGS RUNNING BLO GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF REGION SHOULD BE            
OK AS WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER/PERSISTENT WITH PATCHY CLOUD COVER AND            
NOT QUITE AS DRY. MINOR CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECAST.                    
$$                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
905 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE         
SUPERIOR WITH RESULTANT TIGHT CYCLONIC PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING             
OVER CWFA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED VERY POTENT VERTICALLY             
STACKED LOW NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE             
ENERGY I.E. CHANNELED VORTICITY ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.          
BETTER LIFT/PIVA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW WAS FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN           
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                                     
.FORECAST DETAILS...                                                            
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT         
HEADLINES. 12Z RUC MODEL MAINTAINS WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE           
DAY AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS. IN ADDITION MODEL MAINTAINS            
SOME WEAK LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO S/W INTERACTION. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER           
ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL LET SNOW/BLOWING              
ADVISORY CONTINUE UNTIL MIDDAY AND THEN RE-EVALUATE. BASED ON ABOVE             
NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING HOWEVER PLAN TO SEND SOME TYPE OF             
UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO EITHER EXTEND/EXPIRE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW           
ADVISORY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-NDZ007-NDZ008-              
     NDZ014-NDZ015-NDZ016-NDZ024-NDZ026-NDZ027-NDZ028-NDZ029-                   
     NDZ030-NDZ038-NDZ039-NDZ049-NDZ052-NDZ053-NDZ054.                          
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-MNZ002-MNZ003-              
     MNZ004-MNZ007-MNZ013-MNZ014-MNZ015-MNZ016-MNZ022-MNZ023-                   
     MNZ024-MNZ027-MNZ028-MNZ029-MNZ030-MNZ031-MNZ032-MNZ040.                   
     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ005-           
     MNZ006-MNZ008-MNZ009-MNZ017.                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
4000 FT CLOUD DECK CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOVE NORTH AND SHOULD BE AFFECTING        
KSJT BY TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECK SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER SOUTH AND                
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BREAKING UP. MOISTURE              
SURGING INTO TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEST COAST SYSTEM WILL BRING                      
CEILINGS OVER BOTH TERMINALS DOWN TO THE 1K TO 2K FOOT LEVEL AFTER              
MIDNIGHT FOR KSJT AND BY DAYBREAK AT KABI. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT              
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO THUNDERSTORM                    
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1009 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL SEND AN UPDATE OUT SHORTLY PER CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD         
COVER, TEMPS AND DP. THE LATEST RUC DEEPENS AND KEEPS THE UPPER                 
LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH                
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA               
LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL - NO FURTHER                      
CHANGES.                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE OF MVFR AT 3800 FEET ARE AFFECTING THE                  
KJCT AREA THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING SOUTH              
OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...AND MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE MOVING                   
NORTHWARD FROM HERE...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A TEMPO INTO                 
THE KSJT TERMINAL TAF FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT                  
THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WEST               
CENTRAL TEXAS AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE                   
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z TO 03Z THIS                  
EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE BEYOND THE TAF                
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT              
6 HOURS AT BOTH KABI AND KSJT. 20                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
WV IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA        
COAST WITH THE POLAR VORTEX LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND                 
COLD FRONT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER                
TO INCREASE ACROSS CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
RETURN AND WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL YIELD TO ISOLD TO SCT              
SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA TONIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN MOVING SOUTHWEST US UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
EASTBOUND. THE GFS IS FASTER MOVING AND OPENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND NAM IS SLOWER...HOLDING             
SYSTEM FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY                  
MORNING. LIKE THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION DUE THE LOW BEING CURRENTLY               
CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...HOWEVER MAY END UP A LITTLE FURTHER               
EAST. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL FLOW BACK TO THE NORTH ON LOW                 
LEVEL JET THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES                
BY SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATING STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE               
JET DYNAMICS. LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION                
WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST               
CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BETTER              
SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY SETS UP. UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS              
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONE LAST ROUND                
OF TSTMS. LOOKS LIKE DIRER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...THEN UPPER LEVEL               
FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AND NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO TEXAS.                  
GOING WITH CHC POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                     
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE      57  74  64  79 /  20  60  80  60                                   
SAN ANGELO   60  76  65  78 /  20  70  80  60                                   
JUNCTION     62  76  67  82 /  30  70  80  60                                   
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/99/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1009 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL SEND AN UPDATE OUT SHORTLY PER CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE TWEAKED CLOUD         
COVER, TEMPS AND DP. THE LATEST RUC DEEPENS AND KEEPS THE UPPER                 
LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH                
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA               
LATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL - NO FURTHER                      
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOW CLOUDS JUST OUTSIDE OF MVFR AT 3800 FEET ARE AFFECTING THE                  
KJCT AREA THIS MORNING. THESE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING SOUTH              
OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER...AND MAY HAVE SOME TROUBLE MOVING                   
NORTHWARD FROM HERE...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A TEMPO INTO                 
THE KSJT TERMINAL TAF FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT                  
THESE LOWER CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WEST               
CENTRAL TEXAS AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF AN               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE                   
WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z TO 03Z THIS                  
EVENING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE BEYOND THE TAF                
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT              
6 HOURS AT BOTH KABI AND KSJT. 20                                               
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 405 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
WV IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA        
COAST WITH THE POLAR VORTEX LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.              
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND                 
COLD FRONT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER                
TO INCREASE ACROSS CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
RETURN AND WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL YIELD TO ISOLD TO SCT              
SHRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA TONIGHT.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN MOVING SOUTHWEST US UPPER LEVEL LOW                  
EASTBOUND. THE GFS IS FASTER MOVING AND OPENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND NAM IS SLOWER...HOLDING             
SYSTEM FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY                  
MORNING. LIKE THE SLOWER NAM SOLUTION DUE THE LOW BEING CURRENTLY               
CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...HOWEVER MAY END UP A LITTLE FURTHER               
EAST. ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL FLOW BACK TO THE NORTH ON LOW                 
LEVEL JET THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES                
BY SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATING STRONG VERTICAL MOTION AND FAVORABLE               
JET DYNAMICS. LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION                
WITH WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST               
CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF BETTER              
SURFACE BASE INSTABILITY SETS UP. UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS OUT ACROSS              
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONE LAST ROUND                
OF TSTMS. LOOKS LIKE DIRER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY...THEN UPPER LEVEL               
FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST AND NEXT FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO TEXAS.                  
GOING WITH CHC POPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                                     
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
900 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE SOUTHWARDS ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE BRO CWA AND IS PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCT CONV             
FROM EASTERN BROOKS COUNTY OUT TO 60 TO 80 NM OFFSHORE OF KENEDY                
COUNTY.  BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS TAKE THEIR TIME MOVING THIS                   
FEATURE THROUGH THE REGION AND CONSIDERING THE OVERALL RADAR TRENDS             
THIS SLOWNESS LOOKS OK.  THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS PRETTY               
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT AT THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING AROUND 2.2               
INCHES AND A CAPE OF 5356 J/KG.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE INSTABILITY AND DEEPER               
TROPICAL MOISTURE...THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR CONV DEVELOPMENT            
WILL BE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE OVER               
THE REGION.  THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SERIOUS AFTERNOON HEATING               
HELPING ENHANCE THE CONV.  BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF             
THE CELLS BELIEVE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOCALLY             
HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME FEEDBACK             
PROBLEMS AS MENTIONED IN THE LATEST PMDHMD AND THE CORRESPONDING                
POPS SEEM TOO HIGH CONSIDERING THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.  THE MORE              
CONSERVATIVE NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND WILL                
STICK WITH THESE IN THE SHORT TERM.  CONSIDERING THE LIMITED AREAL              
COVERAGE OF THE CURRENT CONV...THE LACK OF INTENSITY AT THE MOMENT              
AND THE HIGHER OVERALL FFG...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT A FFA WOULD BE NEED            
AT THE MOMENT.  BUT THIS SITUATION WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED              
CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WILL MAKE ONLY SOME MINOR                
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT ZFP FOR POPS...BUT THE OVERALL WORDING               
LOOKS OK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS NEAR 3              
FEET. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE               
BUOY IN A COUPLE MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 15 TO 20                
KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE              
THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST LATE             
FRIDAY...WITH BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AS             
A COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO RETURN ON             
SATURDAY...WITH MODERATE SOUTH WINDS RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 6 FEET OFFSHORE BY SAT WITH MODERATE SEAS               
PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER A LINE FROM CENTRAL ZAPATA            
THROUGH SRN KENEDY COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE MVG S TODAY. ALTHOUGH               
THIS BOUNDARY IS WEAKENING IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCT                      
CONVECTION. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH            
TEMPO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NORTH OF               
THE BOUNDARY...IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS IN BR WILL PREVAIL THIS                   
MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS/VFR VIS EARLY THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...55                                                            
MESO...ABBOTT                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
355 AM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...POTENTIAL WET WEATHER MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES                
ANIMATION SHOWED CUTOFF CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CA WITH               
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...NORTHEAST QUADRANT ACROSS SOUTHERN NV              
AND EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS AZ INTO SOUTHERN UT. LIGHTNING                 
CONTINUES TO BE GENERATED WITH THE TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.                  
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...JUST SOME SCT-BKN CI/CS                  
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE            
40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CO PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE               
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY. 50F DEW POINTS NOT TOO FAR ANY AND CURRENT               
ABOUT TO ADVECT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. SOME PATCHY 3-5SM SHALLOW FOG            
AND IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY               
AND EASTERN CO PER METARS AND TOUGH TO SEE ON SATELLITE DUE TO THE              
HIGH CLOUDS MASKING THE LOWER CLOUDS.                                           
TODAY...06Z/14 WRF MODEL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT-BKN LIFR-IFR             
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CO AS SFC-H8 HUMIDITY INCREASES TO            
90-95 PERCENT BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z/14. WILL ADD SOME "PATCHY" FOG                
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THIS MORNING. PROBABLY A COMBINATION OF                     
RADIATIONAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FOG NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.                   
ANTICIPATING AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF CLOSED LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE                    
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CO. MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL             
ROCKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. H7-H5 SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES ARE                   
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 4-5 G/KG...WHICH IS NOT TOO BAD FOR MIDDLE               
OCT IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE +6C              
TO +8C AND H7-H5 STATIC STABILITIES BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...8              
C/KM...THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WRF AND GFS PROJECTING MIDLEVEL                   
THETA-E ADVECTION...WHICH WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL            
PROBABLY SEE ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH              
CENTRAL CO LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INITIALLY...IT MAY TAKE            
A WHILE FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND UNTIL THE LOWER               
LEVELS CAN BECOME MORE SATURATED. WRF MODEL HAS AN EMBEDDED                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW... WHICH THE GFS MODEL               
DOES NOT...SO THE WRF IS DEVELOPING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THE GFS             
THIS AFTERNOON. HARD TO FIND THAT IN THE WATER VAPOR RIGHT NOW...BUT            
THERE IS CURRENTLY NIGHTTIME PRECIPITATION GOING ON IN AZ...SO                  
SOMETHING IS THERE. GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY...LIGHTNING IS               
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AN TWEAKED POPS UP A LITTLE AND             
MAINLY AROUND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN CO-NM BORDER.                 
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS                   
SOUTHEAST CO. ANY POTENTIAL SNOW WOULD BE AROUND MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS              
FREEZING AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH.  WITH THE                
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN...LOWERING AND THICKENING...WILL NEED THE WIND            
AND MIXING TO PICK UP TO GET WARMER TEMPERATURES. IF WE CAN MIX TO              
H7...THEN LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO. IF NOT...THEN             
THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING PUB...MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME               
WARMING WHICH IS TYPICAL IN THESE PATTERN. HOWEVER...ANY VIRGA COULD            
HELP WITH A "HEAT BURST" TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP AT PUB. TOUGH CALL.            
TONIGHT...MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL                   
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. 310K LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...IMPLIED                   
LIFT...STRONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...EASTERN NM...AND TX/OK                   
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. INCREASED POPS A CATEGORY OR TWO                 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUED ACROSS EXTREME               
SOUTHEAST CO OVERNIGHT. THINK MUCH OF THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR...BUT             
MAINTAINED LOW POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. IT COULD BE A RELATIVELY                
MILD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS...DUE TO CLOUD               
COVER AND SFC-PBL SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING. AGAIN...ANY               
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WOULD BE AT THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...                
GENERALLY AT AND ABOVE 10K FT MSL...BUT COULD LOWER DUE TO STRONG               
DIABATIC COOLING IN INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES. METZE                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
...MAIN CHALLENGE IS UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY...                                     
.SUNDAY...NAM...GFS AND EC AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE                   
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON...A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL LESS                   
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ON THE PLAINS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL              
BE MOST ABUNDANT IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHERE DEW POINTS MAY                 
APPROACH 50F. NAM TENDS TO BRING MORE OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER WEST              
WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW OVER BENT AND WESTERN KIOWA                  
COUNTIES...KEEPING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EAST. MAJOR CHANGES TO                  
GRIDS WERE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER TO HIGH                   
CHANCE CATEGORY...AND TO EXTEND ISOLATED POPS WESTWARD TO THE                   
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. BEST LIFT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                   
CORNER. BUT IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE                       
MOUNTAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKER MUCH LIFT/INSTABILITY TO GET SOME                
SHOWERS.                                                                        
.MONDAY...A TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC                        
NORTHWEST. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS...WITH A LEE TROUGH                     
DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 6 TO 8C WITH               
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ON THE PLAINS. SOME MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO              
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE EVENING FOR SOME SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL                    
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST                   
MOVES EASTWARD WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH                       
SOMETIME ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. I COOLED MAXIMUMS ON                    
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS WITH CLOUDY WEATHER              
LIKELY WITH THE UPSLOPE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FINELY TUNE THE                     
POPS...BUT IT DID ADD 20 POPS TO THE THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH               
THE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. IN THE                           
MOUNTAINS...A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP...WITH BEST CHANCES              
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.                                     
.FRIDAY...EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES.             
EC HAS A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A RELATIVELY MILD               
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL GFS HAS A RIDGE                 
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR.                
SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC               
NORTHWEST...SO THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE. GRIDS LEAN TOWARD THE EC              
SOLUTION WITH POPS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. --PGW--                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/06                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
424 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE ENDING LAKE EFFECT PCPN WHICH IS NOW WINDING               
DOWN AND THEN ONSET OF PCPN MON AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE GREAT              
LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF WRN CONUS TROF AMPLIFICATION.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP                  
MIDLEVEL LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER UPPER MI THE LAST              
COUPLE OF DAYS FILLING AND DRIFTING NE. CENTER WAS LOCATED JUST TO              
THE SW OF JAMES BAY. ONE LAST VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE              
CIRCULATION HAS NOW PASSED SE OF THE FCST AREA. SHORTWAVE BROUGHT A             
BURST OF HEAVIER PCPN TO MUCH OF THE AREA LAST EVENING...ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS THE W AND N. PCPN HAS SINCE DIMINISHED IN SHARP SUBSIDENCE               
REGIME IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. SOME DRYING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS              
PER 00Z CWPL SOUNDING IS ALSO HELPING THE DIMINISHING TREND.                    
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PCPN IS OCCURRING OVER ALGER/NRN                      
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES UNDER LONG FETCH NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW.                   
MIDLEVEL LOW WILL REORGANIZE TOWARD SW HUDSON BAY TODAY WITH                    
CORRESPONDING 500MB HEIGHT RISES OF 100M OR MORE ACROSS FCST AREA               
BTWN 12Z AND 00Z. MEANWHILE...850MB TEMPS WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO             
FROM CURRENT READINGS AROUND -7/-8C PER RUC ANALYSIS...STILL PLENTY             
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN. MODELS HINT AT            
A WEAK SHORTWAVE STREAKING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT FORCING AS VIEWED              
IN DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS IS QUITE WEAK. IT MIGHT                
YIELD SOME INCREASE IN LAKE EFFECT PCPN COVERAGE...BUT PCPN WILL                
OVERALL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS BACK FROM THE CURRENT NW DIRECTION TO A             
WNW TO W DIRECTION BY LATE AFTN WHICH WILL SHIFT PCPN AREAS CLOSER              
TO THE SHORE E OF MARQUETTE. TO THE W...WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR               
ONTONAGON/S HALF OF HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES FOR BEST COVERAGE. MAX             
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR HIGHS OBSERVED FRI SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE             
CHANGE IN AIRMASS.                                                              
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW BACKING...               
WAA GETS UNDERWAY. BY 12Z SUN...850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT               
-4C OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TO -6C OVER THE E. -4C WILL BE ABOUT                 
SUFFICIENT TO BRING AN END TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE               
W...WHERE PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA              
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK ALMOST DUE W.                      
EXAMINATION OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF AN                       
INVERTED-V LOOK AT KCMX WHICH SUGGESTS PCPN OVER THE W HAS A GOOD               
CHANCE OF ENDING COMPLETELY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT.                     
SO...WILL DROP PCPN MENTION DOWN TO JUST FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. SOME LIGHT PCPN WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF                
MUNISING THRU 12Z WITH LINGERING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. IN THE                 
INTERIOR...LOSS OF OVERLAKE TRAJECTORIES SUGGESTS SKIES WILL BECOME             
PARTLY CLOUDY...MAYBE MOSTLY CLEAR. GFS MOS MINS LOOK REASONABLE                
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 20S. IF SOME OF THE AREAS OVER               
THE W THAT STILL HAVE A DECENT SNOW COVER CLEAR...TEMPS COULD EASILY            
DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS IN THE USUAL COLD SPOTS. IN FACT...GFS            
MOS COOP GUIDANCE HAS A MIN OF 17F AT CHAMPION. WILL GO WITH LOWEST             
TEMPS (UPPER TEENS) IN GOGEBIC/SRN ONTONAGON INTO SRN BARAGA/NW IRON            
COUNTIES. COULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER IF LOW-LEVEL WINDS FIELDS JUST            
OFF THE SFC ARE LIGHTER.                                                        
ANY LINGERING PCPN ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF MUNISING WILL END SUN               
MORNING AS WARMING CONTINUES. OTHERWISE...SUN WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY            
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT DAYS AS TEMPS CLIMB BACK TOWARD MORE TYPICAL            
MID OCT READINGS UNDER AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. BASED ON NAM/GFS            
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR 12Z AND 18Z SUN...MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT TOO               
OPTIMISITIC WITH HIGH TEMPS. 50F LOOKS ABOUT AS WARM AS IT COULD GET            
AND WILL CONFINE THOSE TEMPS TO THE SCNTRL FCST AREA. OTHERWISE...              
MID/UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE RULE.                                               
SUN NIGHT THRU TUE...PATTERN SHIFTS TO TROFFING FROM CNTRL CANADA TO            
THE SW CONUS. IN THE TRANSITION TO THIS NEW PATTERN...WAA PATTERN               
COMBINED WITH ONE OR MORE WEAK SHORTAVES MOVING TO THE UPPER                    
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING THE FIRST POTENTIAL OF            
RAIN BEGINNING MON. DECENT SHOT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A STRONG               
PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE N INTO THE UPPER LAKES (PRECIPITABLE INCREASES            
TO AROUND 1 INCH OR 175-200PCT OF NORMAL) SUGGEST RAIN IS A GOOD BET            
MON...SPREADING FROM SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. HAVE ACCORDINGLY                  
BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY. CONTINUED WAA/MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL            
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING THRU MON NIGHT/TUE. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE              
ACROSS THE AREA TUE PER GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. ECMWF IS A GOOD 12HRS               
SLOWER. THEN THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY MIDWEEK AS GFS FOR THE              
LAST 4 RUNS BRINGS ANOTHER WAVE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW            
TRACKING NE THRU LWR MI THU...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING               
SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THIS              
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS NO WAVE...BUT BRINGS ANOTHER DEEP VORTEX INTO               
THE UPPER LAKES BY LATE THU. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO CHANGES HAVE            
BEEN MADE TO FCST BEYOND TUE SINCE GENERAL TRENDS ARE CAPTURED.                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1126 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006                                                     
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE BEEN WELL BELOW FORECAST VALUES THIS                   
MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THESE BASED ON THE 12Z RUC AND NAM-WRF                    
FORECAST OF A MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT. AS A RESULT...THIS HAS PUSHED               
US INTO THE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CATEGORY. WILL MAKE THE                       
APPROPRIATE CHANGES IN THE HWO AS WELL.                                         
KRC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE OCTOBER COOL                
DOWN FOR MID-WEEK WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES.                               
TDY-TONIGHT                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES                
REGION FINALLY BEGINNING TO MIGRATE EASTWARD A BIT.                             
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS ON THE               
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD TREK OVERNIGHT.                 
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE                 
AGAIN...BUT CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE             
AFTERNOON HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF GULF                   
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING SURGING NORTHWARD.             
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT OF THIS MOISTURE WILL COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT                
WITH THE BULK OF ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY OCCURRING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.             
SUN-MON                                                                         
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS             
MAIN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPS            
WOULD BE HELD IN CHECK ON SUNDAY DUE TO COOLING EFFECTS FROM                    
OCCASIONAL PRECIP ACTIVITY AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...PESKY LOW CLOUDS             
COULD HANG AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AS PRECIP CHANCES               
TAPER OFF...THUS WE LOWERED DAYTIME TEMPS ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN KS.             
EXTENDED: TUE-FRI                                                               
A CANADIAN AIRMASS LOOKS TO INVADE KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME                
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES COMING BACK INTO THE PICTURE AS WELL.                      
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG            
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE FOR TUESDAY               
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AGAIN TEMP FORECASTING WILL BE A CHALLENGE DUE            
TO POSSIBLE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE AREA. NONE THE                        
LESS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THIS SURGE OF             
CANADIAN AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A COLDER             
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE ECM MODEL...AND THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION                
WOULD ACTUALLY GIVE WAY TO FROZEN PRECIP FOR CENTRAL KANSAS                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER CLIMATOLOGICAL ODDS SUGGEST THAT THIS                 
POSSIBILITY IS RATHER LOW FOR MID-OCTOBER SO WE WILL KEEP PRECIP                
TYPE IN THE LIQUID FORM AT THIS JUNCTURE.                                       
JAKUB                                                                           
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    70  54  63  55 /  10  60  80  70                                
HUTCHINSON      69  54  63  54 /  10  60  80  60                                
NEWTON          69  53  63  55 /  10  50  80  70                                
ELDORADO        69  53  63  56 /  10  50  80  70                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  55  63  56 /  10  60  80  70                                
RUSSELL         68  52  64  53 /  10  50  60  50                                
GREAT BEND      69  53  64  53 /  10  60  60  50                                
SALINA          68  52  63  53 /  10  50  70  60                                
MCPHERSON       68  53  63  54 /  10  50  80  60                                
COFFEYVILLE     73  53  63  57 /  10  40  80  80                                
CHANUTE         69  51  63  57 /   5  40  80  80                                
IOLA            68  50  63  56 /   5  40  80  80                                
PARSONS-KPPF    71  52  63  57 /  10  40  80  80                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
953 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WAVY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES OUT OVER               
THE GULF EAST OF CORPUS. STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT JUST               
OFF THE COAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND COULD RETREAT BACK                  
OVER LOWER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. VERY STRONG THERMAL PACKING IS                
ALSO EVIDENT FROM SOUTH LOUISIANA TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE A               
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS SENDING A STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTOGENISIS              
OR STRENGTHENING OF THE EXISTING BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE SURFACE WINDS              
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND ARE ALSO POINTING TOWARDS CYCLOGENISIS OR THE              
FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW. IR IMAGERY PLACES A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING             
SURFACE LOW EAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.                                             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...EXPECTING ONE MORE DAY WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER THE               
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER SE TX WHERE RUC H925 MOISTURE                  
LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK IN FROM THE GULF. SUBSIDENCE MAY BE                     
WINNING THE BATTLE WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND                             
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER IN THE BPT AREA SO TWEAKED TEMPS UP                  
JUST A TAD. RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS, SO ZEROED OUT POPS INLAND.                   
CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALREADY DONE THE HEAVY LIFTING AND THESE                   
MINOR TWEAKS ARE STILL COVERED IN THE ZONES SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...RUC ALSO HOLDING TRUE WITH SCA EASTERLY WINDS BEYOND 20               
NM AND INCREASING MODERATE WINDS NEAR SHORE, SO NO CHANGES WILL                 
BE MADE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 508 AM CDT SAT OCT 14 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES CENTERED OVER THE               
LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY ERLY FLOW OVER                
THE REGION. MEANWHILE THE CDFNT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE                      
THU/EARLY NOW SITS OVER THE CNTL GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS                
TROFFING IN PLACE OVER THE ERN CONUS...A CUTOFF LO SPINNING ASHORE              
ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA CST...AND WEAK RIDGING BETWEEN EXTENDING               
FROM CNTL TX TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IR PIX SHOW GENERALLY                     
SCT/BKN MID/UPR- LVL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. REGIONAL                 
88DS QUIET TNGT SAVE FOR SOME CONVECTION WELL OFF OUR CST...MAINLY              
E OF PADRE ISLAND.                                                              
SO MUCH FOR OUR RUN OF NICE QUIET WX AS PLENTY OF THE WET STUFF                 
LOOKS ON THE WAY FOR THE COMING DAYS. LO-LVL FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF              
THE EAST TODAY WHILE MID/UPR-LVL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE                        
SWRLY...RESULT OF WHICH SHOULD BE JUST A THICKENING OF MID/UPR-LVL              
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP.                                                           
POPS RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA TNGT THEN LINGER THRU MID-WEEK.                
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON UPCOMING PATTERN ALTHOUGH WENT                   
CLOSER TO THE NAM DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THIS PACKAGE               
AS THE GFS STILL LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE W/ ITS STRENGTH OF S/WV                   
ALOFT & SFC LO OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. THE SFC LO IS PROGGED TO               
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TNGT INTO SUN WHILE S/WV ALOFT ALSO PUSHES UP              
THE TX CST IN SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF SRN CA CUTOFF LO. W/ INCREASING               
MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE OF BOTH THE VORT & THE SFC LO...HAVE                     
INTRODUCED A 20 POP FOR THE SWRN ZONES FOR TNGT. BY TMRW THE LO IS              
PROGGED TO HAVE MOVED INTO SE TX WHICH IN TURN WILL PULL THE FNT                
OVER THE GULF BACK NORTH AS A WMFNT. THROW INTO THE MIX SOME                    
RIDICULOUS MOISTURE VALUES (ALTHOUGH THAT 2.6 TO 2.8 DEPICTED FOR               
SUN AFTN BY THE GFS MAY WELL BE OVERDONE LIKE THE REST OF ITS                   
FEATURES)...A 40-50 KT LO-LVL JET AND GOOD DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING                
ALOFT AND THE RESULT LOOKS TO BE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RW/TRW FOR              
SUN AFTN. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 70 PCNT ATTM BUT WOULDN'T BE                      
SURPRISED TO SEE LATER SHIFTS BUMP THAT NUMBER HIGHER. FCST                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EXCELLENT LO-LVL DIRECTIONAL & SPEED SHEAR W/                
HIGH HELICITY VALUES AND THUS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN A SLGT RISK               
FOR TMRW. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO SVR WX COULD BE AVAILABLE                     
INSTABILITY BASED ON PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS DOWN                   
DURING THE AFTN.                                                                
KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN NGT AS WMFNT MAKES ITS WAY                 
NORTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND STRONG SRLY LO-LVL WINDS PERSIST.                
GOOD LO-LVL SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CST SHOULD PROVIDE FOR                   
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING                
THE NGT AND INTO THE MORNING ON MON. IN ADDITION WEAK RIPPLES IN                
THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT DURING THIS               
PERIOD RESULTING IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD RW/TRW DEVELOPMENT.                    
ON MON THE S/WV WHICH WAS ONCE THE LO OVER SRN CA WILL PASS NW OF               
THE FCST AREA PROVIDING GOOD FORCING ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO                 
INDUCE SFC LO DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN LA PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL LO-              
LVL LIFT. AGAIN LIKELY POPS LOOK WARRANTED FOR THE DAY...W/ HIGHER              
POPS CONTINUING INTO THE EVE FOR THE SERN ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY                  
SHOULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER.                                                  
THINGS LOOK TO QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK W/ MUCH              
LESSER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED AS MID/UPR-LVL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP         
OVER THE CNTL GULF CST REGION. MAIN TROF AXIS AND SFC CDFNT                     
FINALLY CROSS THE AREA ON THU...ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT AND                
HAVE A DECENT END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.                                      
MARINE...HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS W/ THIS                  
PACKAGE AS CRITERIA WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOMETIME THIS                 
AFTN...TIMING OF WHICH COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OFF BUT CLOSE                    
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUANCE ATTM. ALSO INSERTED SCEC WORDING FOR                 
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS ALTHOUGH SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THIS                
AREA BY THIS AFTN. STRONG SRLY WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO MON                   
BEFORE RELAXING.                                                                
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                    
KLCH  83  65  77  73 /   0  20  60  70                                          
KBPT  81  66  77  72 /   0  20  70  70                                          
KAEX  82  58  78  70 /   0  10  50  70                                          
KLFT  83  63  78  73 /   0  10  50  70                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:            
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM                  
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO                      
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING                 
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
312 PM MDT SAT OCT 14 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POPS ASSOCIATED WITH TRACK              
OF DESERT SW CUTOFF SYSTEM.                                                     
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR DATA INDICATING WEAK              
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT              
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN                 
STREAM CUTOFF LOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE DESERT SW ATTM. WATER VAPOR             
ALSO INDICATING A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS                 
WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. SATELLITE DATA AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING            
GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED TO  NUMEROUS SHOWERS                
ACROSS THE REGION ATTM...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SW AND                   
CENTRAL MTS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED WAVE. ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS            
RIVER VALLEY...STUBBORN STRATUS FINALLY STARTING TO LIFT WITH                   
TEMPERATURES VERY SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE 50S ATTM.                             
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS            
IT HAS DONE WELL WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM AND ALSO HAS SOME CONSENSUS               
WITH ECMWF SOLUTION. AT ANY RATE...UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH              
AND EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY              
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.                 
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM KEEPS MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE               
STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH BEST LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT               
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE                 
STATE ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION BAND. WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE                  
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED WAVE...HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS            
POPS ACROSS THE THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH MT VALLEYS THIS EVENING             
KEEPING SCATTERED POPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOIST AND DIVERGENT FLOW              
ALOFT. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT...SNOW LEVELS TO RELATIVELY HIGH                 
TONIGHT...AND HAVE 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER MT                  
PEAKS. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS              
AND PLAINS THIS EVENING AND KEEPING BEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR SE                 
PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF SYSTEM. WITH                 
CLOUDS AND THE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...OVERNIGHT LOWS             
TO BE RATHER MILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MVFR STRATUS LIKELY RE-              
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS. -MW                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                   
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH                 
SOME LINGERING PRECIP OVER OVER THE SAN JUANS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN              
PLAINS IN THE EVENING. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER STILL IN STORE FOR              
MONDAY...AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO MAJOR              
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS STILL SUGGEST                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH BETTER CHANCES              
FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL                  
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE MORE UPSLOPE OVER              
THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER JET HOLDING                  
BACK SLIGHTLY WEST OF PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL. INCREASED POPS FOR                 
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO BELOW              
5000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD                   
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH MAIN JET MIGRATING EAST AND                 
UPSLOPE WANING...SUSPECT PRECIP WILL DECREASE BY AFTERNOON OVER                 
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE                
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER                     
PRODUCTION. GFS QPF FIELD HINTS AT THIS AS WELL...WITH DRYING                   
NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 00Z. MAIN CHANGE TO THE GRIDS WAS              
TO COOL MAX TEMPS WED AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREA STRUGGLING INTO                
THE 30S AND 40S.                                                                
STILL SOME BIG QUESTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN               
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...AS GFS DIGS THE NEXT UPPER JET INTO THE NRN                  
PLAINS THURSDAY...VERSUS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 24 HOURS AGO. GFS                
THEN BRINGS ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE EPAC RIDGE OVER THE                         
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD                
THE ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. 14/00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE                    
WEEKEND WRN TROUGH THAN THE GFS...THOUGH QUICK LOOK AT THE 14/12Z               
RUN SUGGESTS A TREND BACK TOWARD THE GFS. MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO              
GRIDS BEYOND WEDNESDAY...LIKING THE TREND OF MUCH COOLER THAN MEX               
GUIDANCE TEMPS CURRENTLY PORTRAYED.  --PETERSEN                                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/10                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
305 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP UPR VORTEX               
OVER ONTARIO BEGINNING TO LIFT STEADILY TO THE NE WITH 00Z-12Z H3               
HGT RISES AOA 200M IN ITS WAKE FM INL-YPL. WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS             
DEEPER MSTR ROTATING S IN THE NLY FLOW TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO                
CENTER BEGINNING TO PUSH MORE E THAN S. HOWEVER...12Z INL SDNG STILL            
SHOWS FAIRLY HI RH SFC-H75 OR SO WITH -10C ISOTHERM REMAINING WITHIN            
MOIST LYR...SO SOME SHSNRA STILL OBSVD OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE                 
FA/OVER LK SUP IN THE PERSISTENT CYC WLY FLOW BTWN DEPARTING LO PRES            
OVER ONTARIO AND SFC-H85 RDG EXTENDING FM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE               
LWR OH RIVER VALLEY. BUT MID LVL TEMPS AT INL HAVE RISEN STEADILY FM            
00Z TO 12Z...WITH THIS INCRSD STABILIZATION CONSISTENT WITH VIGOROUS            
DNVA/SUBSIDENCE COINCIDENT WITH OBSVD HGT RISES. IN FACT...VSBL STLT            
IMAGERY SHOWS CLR-PCLDY SKIES OVER NW ONTARIO W OF YPL AND ACRS MUCH            
OF NRN MN WHERE SFC DWPTS AS LO AS THE UPR TEENS. SOME DIURNAL CU/SC            
REDVLPG IN THESE AREAS IN MOIST NR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN               
BTWN H8-85 AS SHOWN ON 12Z INL SDNG/TAMDAR SDNG FM YQT.                         
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE ARND LK PCPN/CLD TRENDS            
AND TEMPS. FOCUS FOR EARLY WEEK SHIFTS TO PCPN CHCS/TIMING                      
ASSOCIATED WITH WAD PATTERN FCST TO DVLP E OF TROFFING IN THE NRN               
ROCKIES.                                                                        
FOR TNGT...GFS/NAM SHOW UPR LO OVER ONTARIO DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO             
THE N...WITH RISING MSLP/LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVRN HGT OVER THE UPR             
GRT LKS COINCIDENT WITH APRCHG HGT RISES. ALTHOUGH SOME H95 CNVGC               
FCST TO REMAIN THRU THE NGT OVER THE NW AND ERN ZNS E OF MUNISING...            
GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE LWRG SUFFICIENTLY THRU THE NGT SO            
THAT SUB INVRN LYR WARMS ABV -10C BY 06Z. POOR SN GROWTH                        
MICROPHYSICS IN CONCERT WITH DCRSG OVERWATER INSTABILITY AND FCST               
DRYING OF THE SUB INVRN LYR AS AIRMASS NOW SUPPORTING CLR-PCLDY                 
SKIES OVER NW ONTARIO/NRN MN ADVECTS TOWARD THE AREA...LOOK FOR                 
LINGERING -SHSNRA THIS EVNG TO GIVE WAY TO NOTHING MORE THAN                    
--SHSNRA OVRNGT BEFORE ENDING SUN MRNG. MEASUREABLE PCPN WL PROBABLY            
LINGER A LTL LONGER OVER THE E WITH LONGER FETCH/BETTER CHC FOR                 
DEEPER MIXED LYR. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLR TNGT...TEMPS HAVE THE              
POTENTIAL TO DROP QUICKLY OVER INLAND AREAS AFT RELATIVELY LTL                  
RECOVERY TDAY... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH SN COVER. HOWEVER...                  
GFS/NAM SHOW FCST WIND SPEEDS ARND 20KT WITHIN 1K FT OF THE                     
SFC...AND RUC13 PROGS SFC WIND SPEEDS GOING NO LWR THAN 7KT OR SO               
EVEN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF. BUT HARD TO BELIEVE NR SFC LYR WON'T             
DECOUPLE AT THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS UNDER CLRG SKIES OVER THE              
INTERIOR W HALF WITH RUC13 SHOWING WSW LAND BREEZE FLOW DVLPG                   
OVERNGT...SO WL KEEP GOING FCST LO TEMPS IN THE UPR TEENS GOING IN              
THESE PLACES CONSISTENT WITH OBSVD DWPTS UPSTREAM. MIN TEMPS WL BE              
MUCH WARMER CLOSER TO THE LKSHORES WITH STEADY W WIND PERSISTING                
THERE.                                                                          
SUN LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY IN RECENT MEMORY WITH SFC HI PRES RDG            
BLDG OVHD UNDER CONFLUENT WNW FLOW ALF/RISING HGTS. MIXING TO H85 ON            
GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX IN THE 45 TO 50 RANGE. LATEST MODEL                  
GUIDANCE SHOWS H5 RDG AXIS DOWNSTREAM OF DEEPENING TROF IN THE PAC              
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE FA LATE SUN NGT...SUGING A SGNFT INCRS             
IN HI CLD WL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER AT NGT AS SHOWN BY LACK OF SGNFT             
MOISTENING ON GFS F48 310K ISENTROPIC SFC. ALTHOUGH TEMPTED TO LOWER            
GOING FCST LO TEMPS...GFS/NAM HINT AT SURGE OF MOISTURE ON THE 290K             
SFC WITH INCRSG LLVL WINDS AFT 06Z. SO KEPT LO TEMPS...WHICH WL                 
PROBABLY OCCUR RELATIVELY EARLY...THE SAME EXCEPT TO LOWER OVER THE             
INTERIOR E WHERE THIS LLVL MSTR WL ARRIVE LATEST.                               
GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW BAND OF RA WORKING N ACRS THE FA ON MON AS MSTR              
SURGE/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SFC             
(ARND H75) OVERSPREADS THE FA TO THE E OF DVLPG LO PRES TO THE E/               
TROFFING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. WL BUMP POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL IN THE            
AFTN/EARLY EVNG. ALTHOUGH SKY WL BE OVC...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO RISE               
SGNFTLY FM EARLY MRNG LOWS WITH LLVL SURGE OF MOIST AND WARMER AIR              
IN SLY FLOW TO THE E OF LO PRES. THINK PCPN CHCS WL DIMINISH MON                
EVNG AS GFS/UKMET SHOW MORE ACYC H85 FLOW DVLPG/LESS QPF OVERNGT                
WITH H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/H7 SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING WITH BETTER                
DEFORMATION ZN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTING TO THE N THEN AS WARM               
SECTOR OF LO TO THE W OVERSPREADS FA. WL CUT BACK TO CHC POPS S-N               
DURING THE NGT AND INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AS HIER DWPTS CONT TO FLOW            
N OVER GRND COOLED DURING RECENT COLD OUTBREAK. EXPECT RELATIVELY               
LTL DIURNAL DCRS IN TEMP MON NGT.                                               
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE CHARTS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING DEEP TROF                
AMPLICATION OVER CNTRL NAMERICA UPSTREAM OF BLOCKING UPR RDG OVER               
GREENLAND/NATLANTIC. HOWEVER...SGNFT DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS OF                  
DAY-TO-DAY WX REMAIN AMONG THE OPS MODELS LATER IN THE PD. THERE IS             
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO TRACKING JUST TO THE NW ON TUE/WED                
WITH SFC COLD FNT CROSSING THE CWA TUE NGT AS NRN BRANCH SHRTWV                 
TRACKS ACRS SRN CAN. ALTHOUGH OP GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE                 
DVLPMNT OF A DEEP LO PRES IN THE LOWER GRT LKS BEGINNING ON THU THAT            
WOULD CAUSE SGNFT SN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FA ON THU AS A SECOND SRN             
BRANCH SHRTWV MOVES ARND THE BASE OF THE CNTRL TROF... THIS MODEL               
REMAINS AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.              
OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES LO WL NOT DEEPEN SGNFTLY UNTIL THE CENTER              
MOVES TO THE N ON THU. 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED WEAKER/FARTHER SE WITH               
SFC LO...INCRSG CONFIDENCE IN NEGLECTING 00Z/06Z GFS. GIVEN EVIDENCE            
FOR THE NON- GFS SCENARIO...WL HOLD ON TO GOING FCST SHOWING RA/SHRA            
ON TUE GRDLY TRANSITIONING TO LES AFTER WEAK WAVE RUNS N ALG COLD               
FNT GIVES WAY TO NW FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF DEEPENING LO IN                    
ONTARIO. WL MAINTAIN LES CHS ON FRI/SAT PER NCEP GUIDANCE/DEEPENING             
TROF/CONTD NW FLOW. TEMPS WL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH AOB BLO NORMAL FOR              
THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE WITH NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN/CNTRL NAMERICA TROF/            
BLOCKING UPR RDG CENTERED NR GREENLAND IN PLACE.                                
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB/DLH.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi