000
FGUS74 KCRP 131116
ESFCRP
TXC007-025-057-131-175-249-273-283-297-311-355-391-409-469-479-
141200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
613 AM CDT FRI OCT 13 2006

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CONTINUES TO OCCUR AT TIMES OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
AS COLD FRONTS HELP TO REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH
SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED SINCE LATE SEPTEMBER...IT WAS
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REMOVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. EL-NINO CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL MONTHS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE DROUGHT
SITUATION OVER THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR...SINCE
AN EL-NINO PATTERN USUALLY MEANS ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SOUTH
TEXAS DURING THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS.

ACCORDING TO THE OCTOBER 10 DROUGHT MONITOR...(SEE THE LINK
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S)...ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS NOW EXIST OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL BEND...WITH MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. THE LATEST
PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDICES CONTINUE TO SHOW VALUES WHICH ARE
TOO LOW (I.E. SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS) OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
BEND). HOWEVER...FARTHER WEST PALMER INDICES ARE NOW NEAR -1.0 WHICH
INDICATE MILD DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WITH INDICES NEAR 1.0 OVER
VICTORIA AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.


AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE OCTOBER 11 SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SOIL
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS...WITH THE GREATEST DEFICITS OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. NEARLY ALL CROPS HAVE BEEN HARVESTED...SO
SOME FARMERS WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME REPLENISHMENT OF SOIL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...END OF YEAR PLANTING WOULD BE DELAYED IF TOO MUCH
PRECIPITATION FALLS AND SATURATES THE SOILS. MOST RANCHLAND AREAS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS GRASSLANDS BECOME REPLENISHED. LIVESTOCK
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BY SPRING DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
THE LATEST FIRE DANGER MAP FROM THE U.S. FOREST SERVICE INDICATES A
LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM
DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) ARE BELOW 500 OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS...AND
ARE BELOW 400 EXCEPT OVER WEBB AND GOLIAD COUNTIES. OVERALL...THE
FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HUMIDITIES
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LESS WATER USAGE...RESERVOIR LEVELS
HAVE REMAINED STEADY OR HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST THREE
WEEKS. AS OF OCTOBER 12...THE CHOKE CANYON POOL LEVEL WAS AT 77.2
PERCENT...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 42.6 PERCENT. THIS MAKES THE
COMBINED SYSTEM TOTAL 67.9 PERCENT...WHICH IS 1.9 PERCENTAGE POINTS
HIGHER THAN THAT REPORTED ON SEPTEMBER 21. THE LATEST LEVEL AT COLETO
CREEK RESERVOIR WAS 95.9 FEET...WHILE THE POOL LEVEL AT LAKE AMISTAD
WAS AT 1107.0 FEET. WATER USAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE
COOLER WEATHER APPROACHING...SO ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SHOULD HELP TO REPLENISH WATER SUPPLIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS.


RESTRICTIONS...
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE
(HTTP://TFSFRP/TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.JPG)...ALL BURN BANS HAVE
BEEN REMOVED OVER THE AREA. RESIDENTS PLANING TO BURN SHOULD STILL
CONTACT AUTHORITIES TO MAKE SURE OUTDOOR BURNING IS ALLOWED FOR
THEIR LOCATION. NO WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. RESIDENTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO VOLUNTARILY CONSERVE WATER RESOURCES BY WATERING THEIR
LAWNS ONLY AFTER 6 PM AND BEFORE 10 AM TO REDUCE EVAPORATION AND
MAXIMIZE USAGE.


OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES NORTH AND DISSIPATES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW 1/2
INCH OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO AROUND 1 INCH OR MORE
OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND. THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER 20 THROUGH OCTOBER 26 EXPECTS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2006 EXPECTS A
GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FINALLY...THE AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK FOR THE
END OF JANUARY 2007 IS EXPECTING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF OCTOBER FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS
ONLY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL CONDITIONS WARRANT AN UPDATE.

$$

GW