AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
940 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL BEING ANALYZED NW TO SE             
ACROSS OUR CWA ROUGHLY FROM COFFEE COUNTY AL TO DIXIE COUNTY FL. THE            
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG IMPULSE AS NOTED ON WATER             
VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RUC ANALYSIS HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN THE            
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND NOW INTO               
THE EVENING. POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP A BIT IN SOME ZONES.                 
OTHERWISE...WILL CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING ON THE UPDATE.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15 KTS FROM THE SE OVERNIGHT...                  
SHIFTING MORE TO THE SW BY MORNING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE                 
FOCUS FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A CLUSTER OF                    
SHRA/TSRA OVER ALABAMA THIS EVENING WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST                 
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 04Z. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR WILL BE                
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT DHN AND              
ABY. PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING AT               
MOST SITES. EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN AND                   
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.                               
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...SHAFER                                                               
REST OF DISCUSSION...BARRY                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
857 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN UPDATE TONIGHT CONCERNS PRECIP CHANCES IN OUR CWA. FOR                     
NOW...ALL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED IN                
OUR AREA. ONE STRONG STORM REMAINS ACTIVE IN FAR E IOWA...AHEAD OF              
THE COLD FRONT. SPC RUC IMAGES INDICATE THE STORM IS MOVING INTO                
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. IT SHOULD REMAIN N OF OUR CWA...BUT                      
BOUNDARIES WERE APPARENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES... MOVING                
INTO OUR N COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PEORIA               
AND NORTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN TRIMMED BACK POPS FOR THE ENTIRE              
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING FOR THE               
MCS TO OUR SOUTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. I PULLED THE                  
LIKELY WORDING FROM SOUTH OF I-70...AND WENT DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
NORTH OF LINCOLN. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A DRY NIGHT IN MOST AREAS.                
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME TOMORROW IN OUR S AND E                      
AREAS...WHEN THE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SC                  
ILLINOIS BY AFTERNOON. TEMPS TONIGHT APPEARED ON TRACK...POSSIBLY               
A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE SOUTH...WHERE CLOUDS MAY NOT FILL IN AS                
QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED. UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 330 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...                                          
MAIN COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN ACROSS                
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS. CONVECTIVE                  
SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI                
TODAY HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD BACK               
INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR                      
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY             
WILL LIKELY RIDE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARY AND APPROACH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TOWARD DAWN. UNTIL THEN...              
THE MAIN PROSPECT FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND               
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER                   
NEBRASKA MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST LATER THIS EVENING. NOT VERY MUCH               
EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST AS THIS AREA IS UNDER                 
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TENNESSEE STORM COMPLEX. WILL KEEP              
POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THIS EVENING...THEN UP THEM A BIT AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TEXAS SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD               
INTO INDIANA BY EVENING. BELIEVE THAT THE GFS IS BLOWING                        
PRECIPITATION TOO FAR NORTH IN RESPONSE TO EXCESSIVE GRID-SCALE                 
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. THE ETA LOOKS BETTER IN THIS RESPECT. WILL                   
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST JUST NORTHWEST OF THE                   
SURFACE LOW TRACK.                                                              
THE NAM LOOKS LIKE IT IS DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW TOO MUCH OVER                
NORTHERN INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN PARKS IT THERE THROUGH 84               
HOURS. THE GFS IS BETTER IN THIS REGARD...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW              
BUT NOT QUITE THE BOMB THAT THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST. IT IS ALSO MORE              
PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREEN BAY AREA BY                 
MIDDAY THURSDAY. THIS IS THE MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND FITS                  
BETTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND EUROPEAN MODEL. WILL THEREFORE                
RESTRICT MENTIONABLE POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY...THEN MAKE            
THEM SLIGHT CHANCE OR BELOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IF THE             
LOW ENDS UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH ALA THE NAM...THEN SHOWERS WILL BE              
MORE PERSISTENT.                                                                
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                         
THE 12Z GFS IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM ITS PREVIOUS CYCLES IN                   
BRINGING THE OLD UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE             
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL STICK IN CHANCE POPS FOR            
LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CHANCES                 
BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.                                       
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW               
WILL BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL BEGIN TAPERING                
POPS DOWNWARD INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND                     
MONDAY...THEN DROP THEM ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN             
LATER CYCLES AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHIMON/04                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1130 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO LOWER THE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS WHILE KEEPING LIKELY CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM              
I-70 SOUTH. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20             
MPH AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.                                            
BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED/BROKE UP AS IT                 
MOVED ENE INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS HOLDING                 
TOGETHER OVER SE IL SOUTH OF MATTOON AND NW WIL NORTH OF GALESBURG.             
SEVERE MCS OVER SE MO AND NORTHERN AR IS MOVING ESE TOWARD WESTERN              
KY/TN AND FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF IL. THIS MCS APPEARS TO HAVE ROBBED               
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL IL...THUS THE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING TREND OF              
SHOWERS HERE LATE THIS MORNING.                                                 
16Z/11 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER SW              
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...NW MO INTO SE KS AND TO 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE              
OVER NW TEXAS. TEMPS OVER CENTRAL IL MOSTLY IN THE 60S...RANGING                
FROM A RAIN COLLED 61 IN GALESBURG TO AROUND 70F OVER NE AREAS FROM             
LACON TO BLOOMINGTON TO CHAMPAIGN NE AND NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER WITH             
LAWRENCEVILLE THE HOT SPOT AT 72F. THESE AREAS WARMER SINCE SAW MORE            
SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH INCREASING CIRRUS THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS             
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S THANKS TO SOUTH BREEZES 10 TO 20 MPH AND                
GUSTING IN THE 20S AT TIMES FROM I-72 NORTH.                                    
15Z RUC KEEPING EASTCENTRAL IL DRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST QPF OVER            
WESTERN AND SE IL. NAM HOLDS TOGETHER A BAND OF QPF EASTWARD ACROSS             
IL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THINK FROM CURRENT RADAR TRENDS THAT SHOWERS            
WILL WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS CENTRAL IL NORTH OF                
I-70. SPC KEEPS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER SOUTHERN MO             
AND FAR SOUTHERN IL. SEVERE MCS TO CONTINUE ITS ESE JOURNEY INTO TN             
AND SW KY ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROB                     
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR FLOW INTO CENTRAL IL REST OF TODAY. COLD FRONT TO            
MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO EASTERN IOWA AND CENTRAL MO BY SUNSET/8 PM AND            
INTO WESTERN IL LATE TONIGHT...KEEPING CHANCE OF CONVECTION GOING               
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY OF 70 TO 76F AND WARMEST NE AREAS AND NEAR THE             
IN/IL BORDER.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CONVECTION GETTING A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED AS IT NEARS THE                   
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MUCH                 
CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS GAINING MOMENTUM              
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  PROGRESS OF SOUTHERN CONVECTION INTO               
MO/AR/OK TODAY IS A BIT OF A CONCERN FOR ONGOING POPS IN THE                    
FORECAST.  BEYOND THAT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW                 
MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST MIDWEEK IS THE MAIN AND ONGOING FORECAST                
PROBLEM. ADD TO THAT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN BOTH THE GFS            
AND THE NAM...AND THE RESULT IS A FORECAST WITH VERY CONSERVATIVE               
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.  KEPT THE NAM THE FAVORITE UNTIL                 
HALFWAY THROUGH DAY 3.                                                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS PROVIDING FORCING FOR APPROACHING               
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH LAST NIGHTS BATCH ARE QUICKLY DYING DOWN THIS            
MORNING WHILE THE FRONT HANGS WELL BACK.  MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A              
SLOWING TREND IN THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM AND GFS               
MOVING IT OVERHEAD LATER ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION FIRING OFF TO THE             
SOUTH THROUGHOUT TODAY MAY BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM TO ANY ORGANIZED               
STORMS TODAY...AS WILL CUT OFF THE TRULY BUOYANT AIR FROM GETTING               
WELL INTO THE CWA.  06Z NAM ALSO REFLECTING THAT THIS PROBLEM OF                
BEING CUT OFF FROM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  IN THE            
MODELS...THE GFS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE MOVING A LOW UP THE FRONT              
LATE WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE PLAINS...WHILE THE NAM HAS A WEAKER SYSTEM            
KEEPING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  THURSDAY IS            
A BATTLE OF THE DRY SLOT VS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE UPPER LEVEL             
LOW SLOWS TO A CRAWL JUST TO THE NORTHEAST.  BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP            
WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  AT THIS POINT...HESITATE TO BUMP                
POPS OUT OF SLIGHT FOR PROXIMITY OF LOW AT FH60-72 IS WHERE THE                 
MODELS TRULY DIVERGE.                                                           
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
TO RAIN OR NOT TO RAIN...VERY DEPENDENT ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE                 
LOW.  NAM HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKER AND EAST OF CWA BY 12Z                 
FRI...GFS/ECMWF/CAN GLOB OVER SRN MI WITH VARYING DEPTHS.                       
INCREASING POPS CLOSER TO THE LOW OF COURSE...BUT THE LOCATIONS A               
LITTLE FURTHER OUT MOST LIKELY SHOWING A BIT MORE OF A DIURNAL                  
TENDENCY TO THE ACTIVITY...WHICH IS RATHER EFFICIENTLY DEPICTED IN              
THE CANADIAN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...AND WILL LIKELY BE             
ADDED TO THE FORECAST WITH THE NEXT RUN.                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HJS                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
642 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
340 AM CDT                                                                      
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT              
SEVERAL DAYS.                                                                   
SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ARE APPEARING IN PROFILER DATA THIS                        
MORNING...WITH ONE OF THESE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY LOCATED                
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL                  
TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN                 
KANSAS. BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER HAS BEEN INDICATING A DECENT LOW                 
LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AROUND 1KM OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION                    
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH               
THIS LOW LEVEL JET AND GOOD LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THIS LOW               
LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO SOME QUESTION            
REMAINS TO HOW EXTENSIVE ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT            
WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALSO SHOULD LIFT                   
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHICH MAY TAKE BETTER FORCING TO THE                     
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT WAVE                  
ACROSS THE PLAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WITH               
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AGAIN. NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT              
OVER PAST FEW RUNS IN DEVELOPING PRECIP IN THE VICINITY OF A                    
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A 20-25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS              
THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER FORCING ALSO WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON            
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN UPPER JET             
STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE               
TROUGH BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO WITH                
LIKELY POPS FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS             
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS RATHER                
MODEST IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES                   
GENERALLY IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MAGS ~30               
KNOTS. SOME SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BUT ANY SEVERE                  
WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS               
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOW TO MID 70S FOR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY.               
WILL SPREAD LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST                 
INDIANA TONIGHT AS AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADV SHIFTS               
EAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO W-SW THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF THIS            
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL             
ILLINOIS BY LATE EVENING...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY               
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.                
SOME CONCERN TONIGHT FOR FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES DO                 
CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN LIGHT WINDS            
AND PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN                 
FORECAST BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE              
MAIN UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL DIG               
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AS A STRONG UPPER JET STREAK DIGS INTO             
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DESPITE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES...PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR RATHER MARGINAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS             
NAM/GFS AGREE IN DRY MID LEVEL AIR PUNCHING INTO NRN IL IN ADVANCE              
OF THE GREAT BASIN UPPER TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES LIKELY TO INCREASE              
AGAIN TOWARD WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH DROPS             
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. DEEP MIXING AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD              
ALLOW FOR NICE WARM UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.               
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST OF NOTE POST-WEDNESDAY WAS FROM SOME                    
SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL             
CAA IN STORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL                
TEMPS FROM THURS-SUNDAY. MAY NEED TO ADD LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR              
SHOWERS FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENCE/SLOW                    
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT GIVEN STILL DECENT SPREAD IN                    
EXTENDED MODELS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW.                     
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
642 AM CDT                                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS TIMING OF PRECIP FOR TERMINALS TODAY.                    
10 UTC PROFILER ANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE                 
TROUGHS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. OF MOST IMPORTANCE TO FORECAST AREA ARE             
WAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN IA...AND ONE ACROSS EASTERN MO. 06 UTC NAM             
APPEARS TO INITIALIZE THESE FEATURES FAIRLY WELL...INDICATING SOME              
DEGREE OF PHASING OF IA AND MO SHORT WAVES AS THEY PROPAGATE EAST TO            
THE MS RIVER LATER TODAY. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OCCURRING                 
THROUGH MS VALLEY FROM EASTERN MO TO SOUTHWEST WI THIS MORNING...IN             
AXIS OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET AND NARROW RIBBON OF STEEPER            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BLUE RIVER WI WIND PROFILER SHOWED 50 KNOTS              
AT AROUND 1 KM AGL A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT NOW DECREASING TO ABOUT 30             
KTS. KDVN 88D ALSO SHOWING CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW            
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY APPROACHING MS RIVER. RUC/NAM FORECASTS SUPPORT              
RELATIVELY QUICK WEAKENING OF LOW LEVEL JET THIS AM...ALONG WITH                
LOSS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS. THIS SUGGESTS WE SHOULD SEE                  
WEAKENING/DECAY OF CURRENT CONVECTION THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT              
IT MAY HANG TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH KRFD. WILL CARRY BRIEF                
TEMPO FOR TSRA THERE AFTER 13 UTC. HIGHER PROBABILITY APPEARS TO                
HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING HOWEVER WITH COMBINATION            
OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY                
AXIS. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN TIMING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR                   
MIDDAY/AFTN FOR KRFD AND INTO CHI AREA LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY                    
EVENING. TSRA THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING             
AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...ALONG WITH SFC PREFRONTAL               
TROUGH REFLECTION.                                                              
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS TODAY WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF                     
APPROACHING TROUGH. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO               
NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH              
PASSAGE OF WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH...AND GRADIENT DECREASES AS SFC               
FRONT APPROACHES. LGT WINDS AND HIGH RH IN VICINITY OF FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR HZ/BR...WITH FWC/MAV HINT OF               
IFR CONDITIONS DVLPG TOWARD SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN TREND WITH                   
LOW MVFR VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                  
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
621 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
WELL DEFINED MCV NR KBWG KY DECAYING W/TIME AS IT CONTS EAST INTO               
MID LVL RIDGE AXIS. HWVR TRAILING SW TROUGH AND WELL DVLPD COLD POOL            
WITHIN TN VALLEY MCS CONTS TO GENERATE NEW CONVN ALG ERN FLANK. THIS            
MESOSCALE EVOLUTION HAS CERTAINLY SUPPRESSED BTR LL THETA-E ADVTN               
NORTH ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. THUS CONCURRENT W/LATEST SHRT TERM RUC                
SOLUTION...WKNG UPSTREAM TRIGGER TRAILING SWD OUT OF WI...POOR LL               
RTN MSTR AND DISMAL LOW LVL MASS FLUX AHD OF SFC FNT OVR IA...SEE               
ALL THE MORE REASON TO SIGNIFICANTLY SCALE BACK GOING LIKELY SHRA/TS            
MENTION OVERNIGHT. WILL HOLD TEMPO RA MENTION AT KSBN TERMINAL YET              
FOR THIS EVENING BUT NOT A BIG DEAL W/VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO             
WED. SOME CONCERN THOUGH W/MVFR CONDS TWD DAYBREAK W/SFC BNDRY                  
STALLING OUT ACRS WRN CWA AND SOME LL MSTR POOLING SO WILL STAY THE             
COURSE W/THAT MENTION AT THIS POINT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHRTWV OVER MS RVR VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.                
WHILE BULK OF RAINFALL ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS OCRG WITH MCS MOVG            
INTO WRN KY/TN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER NW IL/WRN WI SHOULD MOVE EAST               
WITH THE SHRTWV TONIGHT WITH SOME EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS              
AFTN ACROSS NRN IL AS AMS DESTABILIZES A BIT. AFTER THIS SHRTWV                 
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK LATE               
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED BEFORE NEXT STRONG SHRTWV MOVG INTO NRN PLAINS            
THIS AFTN DIGS SE INTO IA. SFC CDFNT OVER IA THIS AFTN SHOULD MOVE              
SLOWLY EAST NEXT 24HRS DUE TO STRONG DIGGING SHRTWV UPSTREAM. FRONT             
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF CWA TOMORROW AFTN.                     
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONT THAN               
NAM. BELIEVE MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAST IN THIS SITUATION AND OF                
COURSE THERE ARE THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ALSO CASTING DOUBT              
ON THE MODELS SOLUTIONS THUS KEPT POPS IN HIGH CHC CATEGORY WED                 
AFTN. CWA SHOULD STAY IN WARM AIR THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH AN                   
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD                
ALLOW FOR WK-MOD SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. SHEAR BASED ON              
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS WILL BE WEAK BUT SOME MID LEVEL DRYING/COOLING AS            
SHRTWV APPROACHES WILL RESULT IN RATHER LOW WET BULB ZEROES SO HAIL             
STORMS ARE A THREAT. AND THEN THERE IS ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY THAT              
THE GFS WILL BE RIGHT AS SPC POINTS OUT IN SWODY2 RESULTING IN                  
GREATER LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG SFC LOW                 
SUGGESTING MORE OF A LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL RISK. HAVE MENTION OF SVR             
IN HWO FOR WED AND FEEL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO ADD TO ZONES ATTM.              
MOS TEMPS SIMILAR THIS PERIOD AND REASONABLE. GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS             
AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS TOMORROW GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD WARMER END              
OF EXTREMES TONIGHT AND COOLER END TOMORROW.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE ON HAND             
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF                   
DEEPENING AND BEING CUT OFF OVER THE MIDWEST. NCEP MODELS AS WELL AS            
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL WERE SHOWING            
SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREADS IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM REALLY                
DEEPENS THIS LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND GENERATES OVER 6                  
INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MORE            
PROGRESSIVE WITH MUCH LESS RAIN AND SHOWS A DRY SLOT REACHING THE               
AREA DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND DEEPER             
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE LOW BECOMING STATIONARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN             
LOWER MICHIGAN. A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL BLOCK IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE             
WILL FORM AROUND 60W...PREVENTING EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER                
LOW. CONSIDERING THESE TRENDS...FAVOR A SLOWER GFS SOLUTION WITH THE            
UPPER LOW REMAINING IN THE FORECAST AREA VICINITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT            
WEEK. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EARLY IN THE              
PERIOD INCLUDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL                 
INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION...IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO              
COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF INSOLATION. NAM 850 MB THETA E BETWEEN               
325K AND 331K EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT IS...DID NOT MENTION                 
SEVERE IN GRIDS/ZFP...BUT MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN               
GIVEN MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO SYSTEM WITH LARGE OMEGA VALUES.               
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE UPPER              
LEVEL LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN THE REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE OF LIGHT             
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE VICINITY OF             
THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH             
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN                                                       
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1147 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING FORECAST.                             
A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND OUT THERE THAT WILL HAVE AN              
IMPACT ON THIS AFTERNOON'S WEATHER. ONE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS SITUATED            
OVER NORTHERN OK FROM JUST SOUTH OF PONCA CITY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR                
CLINTON. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT MOVED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE LAST COUPLE            
OF HOURS. THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FROM NEAR ICT            
TO NEAR EMP. FEEL THAT CURRENT HWO LOOKS GOOD WITH THE BEST                     
POTENTIAL GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS              
THAT THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY GETTING FULL SUN. WITH SATURATED                 
GROUND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DEWPOINTS RISE JUST DUE TO                     
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION. THE NAM AND RUC APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE IN                    
BRINGING 70 DEWPOINTS INTO SE KS. FEEL THAT LOW TO MID 60S SEEMS                
REASONABLE WHICH WOULD GIVE BETWEEN 2000-2500J/KG CAPES. THIS                   
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AROUND 50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE              
PLENTY FOR STORMS TO BE SEVERE IF THEY DEVELOP...WHICH BRINGS US TO             
OUR NEXT QUESTION...WILL THEY DEVELOP. FEEL THAT WITH UPPER WAVE                
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR TRACKING OUT OF CO...THERE MAYBE ENOUGH LIFT             
EVEN WITH LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP.                     
THEREFORE LEFT HIGH STORM CHANCES IN SE KS.                                     
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA...WILL             
KEEP GOING AND WILL MAKE A DECISION WHETHER TO EXTEND OR CANCEL                 
WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                     
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006/                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL FIRE OUT INITIAL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.               
THIS UPDATE WILL BE MAINLY TO JUST KEEP UP WITH CURRENT CLOUD AND               
PRECIP TRENDS. WITH LARGE AREA OF STORMS EAST OF FORECAST AREA TOOK             
OUT HIGH POPS OVER SE KS AND JUST BASICALLY RAN WITH WHAT PREVIOUS              
FORECAST HAD STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FROM WHAT I WAS BRIEFED ON                
LOOKS LIKE STORM CHANCES MAY NOT BE THAT GREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER                
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TODAY WITH OUTFLOW PUSHING THROUGH AREA.                       
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON MAKING ADDITIONAL CHANGES UNTIL HAVE TIME            
TO LOOK AT MORE DATA...ESPECIALLY 12Z MODEL RUNS.                               
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006/                           
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER PRIMARILY ON CHANCES FOR SEVERE                   
WEATHER AND FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST               
KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIPITATION              
ON WEDNESDAY.                                                                   
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
THERE ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE             
NEAR TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME INITIALIZING VERY                
WELL...AND THEREFORE ARE NOT VERY RELIABLE /OR IN VERY GOOD                     
AGREEMENT/. THE 09/00Z GFS SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE            
09/00Z NAM...WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CURRENT MOISTURE. THEREFORE            
THE FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS.                        
CONVECTION IS STILL ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND               
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH SOME OF             
THE STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT STORMS...SOME LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN 3            
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR                
MORE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING AS THE CONVECTION                  
CONTINUES. ONE QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW PERSISTENT THIS CONVECTION             
WILL BE...AND HOW FAR BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS            
IT WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL                
KANSAS...AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REALLY MORE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH             
AND EAST. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS                  
MORNING AS WELL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LOWER DEW POINTS STAY                 
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SO THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN               
THE AREA. BELIEVE THAT IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL             
KANSAS...IT WOULD BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CONVECTION ACROSS                
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKELY...WITH                
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST              
KANSAS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST              
KANSAS AS WELL.                                                                 
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY TUESDAY            
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOK TO BE                   
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER            
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. CAPE            
VALUES ARE STILL DECENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. WITH                   
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH                      
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.                        
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS               
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WE WILL              
BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL                    
KANSAS...AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD                 
GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES.                  
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY:                                                               
ANOTHER RIPPLE/DISTURBANCE IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH                
KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING             
THE DAY...THEREFORE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING. BEHIND THIS                   
WAVE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THIS                
UNSETTLED PATTERN. COLD AIR COMES SOUTH TO THE REGION ON                        
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAINS UNTIL LATE THURSDAY. WITH WARM AIR ALOFT                
RETURNING FOR FRIDAY...RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.                    
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:                                                               
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON                
SATURDAY...UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON SATURDAY              
AFTERNOON. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR TERM...CONFIDENCE IS            
EVEN LOWER BY THIS WEEKEND. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION               
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET AND             
POTENTIALLY SEASONABLE PERIOD AFTER THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. CURRENT                
FORECAST LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES MADE.                           
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    76  56  70  48 / 100  50  20  10                                
HUTCHINSON      75  55  68  47 /  40  30  20  10                                
NEWTON          75  56  69  47 /  70  40  20  10                                
ELDORADO        76  56  71  48 / 100  40  20  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  72  48 / 100  60  30  10                                
RUSSELL         74  50  67  45 /  30  20  20  10                                
GREAT BEND      74  51  67  45 /  30  30  20  10                                
SALINA          74  53  67  46 /  40  30  20  10                                
MCPHERSON       74  54  68  47 /  40  30  20  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     78  57  73  50 / 100  80  30  10                                
CHANUTE         77  56  73  49 / 100  50  30  10                                
IOLA            76  56  72  49 /  90  50  30  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    77  57  73  49 / 100  60  30  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR KSZ069>072-093>096-                    
098>100.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
909 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ETA OVER THE GFS FOR TONIGHT.               
ETA AND GFS WERE VASTLY DIFFERENT AT 18Z. 18Z GFS GENERATED A                   
SPURIOUS LOOKING 500 MB VORT CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND                
MOVED IT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THE             
GFS PLASTERED VERY HEAVY QPF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT               
AND WED MORNING. PREFER THE RUC FOR THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. RUC               
INDICATES THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A 30 KNOT 850 MB JET OVER            
ARKANSAS. SE MISSOURI AND FAR SW KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE NOSE OF                
THIS JET...WHICH WILL ADVECT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /SHOWALTERS NEAR MINUS 6/. SW INDIANA AND PARTS              
OF SRN ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK 850 MB FLOW TONIGHT.  ANY            
CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN                 
ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 300 PM TUE MAY 9/...                               
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE MODERATE THREAT DAY 2.                                       
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWS LOW OVER CENTRAL OK WITH QUASI                  
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE TN VALLEY AND THEN            
ON TO FL. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE OVERNIGHT MCS PROPAGATED INTO A BOW              
ECHO WITH THE APEX DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THE                  
NORTHERN END WAS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AS PER LATEST REG RADAR LOOP.                
ANOTHER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN            
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH IA INTO TX.                                
THE LATER FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT EVENT. HOWEVER                   
ANOTHER MCS COULD FORM OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH STORM                 
SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION                     
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTAMINATE THE COLUMN AND STABILIZE THE PAH             
FA THROUGH THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS. BUT WILL LIKELY RECOVER DURING              
THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH AN AMPLIFYING NORTHERN SYSTEM AND             
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WOULD EXPECT THE LARGEST THREAT TO BE                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WIND AND HAIL BUT A                  
SUPERCELL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SURE. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN            
THE 60S WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND FROPA...COULD SEE SOME LINE            
SEGMENTS AND LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AS PER SWODY2. HEAVY RAIN COULD              
ALSO PRESENT A PROBLEM DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RECOVERY TIME WE HAVE              
BETWEEN STORMS. THUS GRIDS WILL REFLECT T+RW+. THE REMAINDER OF THE             
WEEK REMAINS UNSETTLED AS UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS AND SPINS JUST NORTH             
OF THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN CHC ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH THE FORECAST               
UNTIL THE LOW DEPARTS. AS A RULE I REALLY JUST HESITATE TO HAVE POPS            
DAY AND NIGHT FOR SEVEN DAYS...ESPECIALLY A 20 POP DAYS 6 AND 7.                
AS FOR TEMPS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. TRY TO CONTINUE                  
CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS TEMP GRIDS WHICH KEPT CLOUDY AND COOL.                 
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...MY                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
925 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 01Z RGNL RADAR TRENDS AND SFC OBS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LGT RAIN              
MOVING NE ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI INTO OUR NW CWA. THIS IS IN AN AREA            
OF STRONG PVA AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC 500 HGT/VORT PROG. STRONGEST               
PVA WILL FOCUS MOST OF THIS RAIN INTO NORTHERN LWR MI LATER TONIGHT.            
I DO NOT REALLY SEE ANY TRIGGER OR FORCING MECHANISM TO PROMOTE                 
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT AND               
ALL WE HAVE RIGHT NOW IS A MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK. WE GET INTO                  
STRONG NVA LATER TONIGHT AND RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST DRY                      
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA.               
WE WILL UPDATE TO KEEP HIGH CHC POPS NW BUT REMOVE ANY MENTION OF               
THUNDER. WE WILL ALSO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF RAIN/CONVECTION FOR THE             
REMAINDER OF OUR CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON LATEST                   
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAURENS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES TO PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO             
FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WILL SHEAR             
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK TO ROTATE                    
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AS WELL. AS A RESULT LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT               
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE GENESEE AND SAGINAW VALLEY                  
06-12Z. THESE WEAK UPPER WAVES THAT MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES...AND DRY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO ANTICIPATE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH            
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.               
MOISTURE AXIS IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS UP              
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MOISTURE AXIS IS FINALLY IN PLACE              
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST               
PERIOD. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY AS            
INSTABILITY INCREASES AND WEAK SURFACE TROF AXIS MOVES INTO                     
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. ANTICIPATE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER               
12Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 18Z.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                             
OUR TRANQUIL SPRING WEATHER OF LATE WILL BE COMING TO END AS WE                 
TRANSITION TOWARD A DEEPENING UPPER...AND SURFACE...LOW INCLUDING               
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.                                               
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF I75 THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH                 
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION             
ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE HARD TO DISLODGE AS MODEL             
PROGS SUGGEST 925MB AGEOSTROPHIC WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST                    
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP.                   
YET...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID              
LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ALOFT IS SCHEDULED PER THE NCEP SUITE              
AND LATEST RUC TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                    
OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL TRIM BACK TIMING OF PRECIP BUT KEEP             
THE LOW POP MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE CLOUDS                   
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DROP BACK MUCH FURTHER               
THAN MIDDLE 50S.                                                                
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGING PRECIP FORECAST DAY AS INITIAL SHOT             
OF THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION AS POTENT             
JET DIVES DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A BREAK IN THE            
PRECIP COVERAGE MIDDAY HOURS BUT TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES REMAINS AN             
ISSUE.  OMEGA PATTERNS WITHIN THESE MODELS ARE QUITE AMAZING WITH               
THE GFS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH                   
SPONTANEOUS SHORT WAVE WHICH PROPELS THROUGH THE MODEL SIMULATION               
WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO GO OFF THE DEEP END TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH SUGGEST THE                
BULK OF THE NEXT PRECIP ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF I94.  IF WE            
DO OBSERVE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS            
QUICKLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S.  AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER                   
APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND BEST FORCING REMAINING                   
UPSTREAM FROM OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                    
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MAY THAT IS EXPECTED            
TO IMPACT THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE            
UPPER LOW OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER WILL DROP INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST BY WED NIGHT AND AMPLIFY AS RIDGING OVER EASTERN                  
CANADA STRENGTHENS AND A 120KT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE BASE OF THE             
UPPER LOW. EXPECT THERE TO BE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER               
OHIO VALLEY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER              
JET SUPPORT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS SURFACE LOW AS            
IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI WED NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO SUFFER              
FROM SOME SERIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH LIKELY IS CAUSING IT              
TO DEEPEN THE LOW TOO QUICKLY. THIS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE GFS              
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN BY CAUSING THE               
UPPER LOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURS AS                
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE            
NAM LOOKS A BIT STRONG WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE               
GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TOO                  
RAPIDLY. AT THIS TIME...PREFERENCE IS TOWARD A SURFACE LOW TRACK AND            
TIMING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH                  
BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI BY THURS MORNING. GIVEN            
THE STRONG DYNAMICS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990MB OR LOWER               
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.                                                          
AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MICHIGAN WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AMPLE MOIST                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.             
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS                   
INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND                
+12C AND 700MB DEWPOINTS AROUND +2C. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM CLOUD                
LAYER AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY             
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS                   
SYSTEM...PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO THURS MORNING BEFORE AN                      
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE SLIGHT                     
DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE              
DRY SLOT ON THURS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS. DESPITE            
THE DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION              
AND MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURS WILL SET UP TO THE            
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                      
A REX BLOCK WILL BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA            
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO NORTHERN                 
QUEBEC AND HUDSON BAY AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE                   
GRADIENTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS             
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP                  
ENHANCE DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CLOUDY                      
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO                
EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
338 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                             
OUR TRANQUIL SPRING WEATHER OF LATE WILL BE COMING TO END AS WE                 
TRANSITION TOWARD A DEEPENING UPPER...AND SURFACE...LOW INCLUDING               
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.                                               
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF I75 THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH                 
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION             
ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE HARD TO DISLODGE AS MODEL             
PROGS SUGGEST 925MB AGEOSTROPHIC WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST                    
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP.                   
YET...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID              
LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ALOFT IS SCHEDULED PER THE NCEP SUITE              
AND LATEST RUC TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                    
OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL TRIM BACK TIMING OF PRECIP BUT KEEP             
THE LOW POP MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE CLOUDS                   
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DROP BACK MUCH FURTHER               
THAN MIDDLE 50S.                                                                
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGING PRECIP FORECAST DAY AS INITIAL SHOT             
OF THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION AS POTENT             
JET DIVES DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A BREAK IN THE            
PRECIP COVERAGE MIDDAY HOURS BUT TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES REMAINS AN             
ISSUE.  OMEGA PATTERNS WITHIN THESE MODELS ARE QUITE AMAZING WITH               
THE GFS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH                   
SPONTANEOUS SHORT WAVE WHICH PROPELS THROUGH THE MODEL SIMULATION               
WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO GO OFF THE DEEP END TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH SUGGEST THE                
BULK OF THE NEXT PRECIP ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF I94.  IF WE            
DO OBSERVE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS            
QUICKLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S.  AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER                   
APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND BEST FORCING REMAINING                   
UPSTREAM FROM OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                    
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MAY THAT IS EXPECTED            
TO IMPACT THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE            
UPPER LOW OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER WILL DROP INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST BY WED NIGHT AND AMPLIFY AS RIDGING OVER EASTERN                  
CANADA STRENGTHENS AND A 120KT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE BASE OF THE             
UPPER LOW. EXPECT THERE TO BE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER               
OHIO VALLEY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER              
JET SUPPORT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS SURFACE LOW AS            
IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI WED NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO SUFFER              
FROM SOME SERIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH LIKELY IS CAUSING IT              
TO DEEPEN THE LOW TOO QUICKLY. THIS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE GFS              
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN BY CAUSING THE               
UPPER LOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURS AS                
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE            
NAM LOOKS A BIT STRONG WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE               
GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TOO                  
RAPIDLY. AT THIS TIME...PREFERENCE IS TOWARD A SURFACE LOW TRACK AND            
TIMING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH                  
BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI BY THURS MORNING. GIVEN            
THE STRONG DYNAMICS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990MB OR LOWER               
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.                                                          
AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MICHIGAN WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AMPLE MOIST                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.             
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS                   
INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND                
+12C AND 700MB DEWPOINTS AROUND +2C. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM CLOUD                
LAYER AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY             
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS                   
SYSTEM...PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO THURS MORNING BEFORE AN                      
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE SLIGHT                     
DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE              
DRY SLOT ON THURS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS. DESPITE            
THE DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION              
AND MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURS WILL SET UP TO THE            
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                      
A REX BLOCK WILL BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA            
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO NORTHERN                 
QUEBEC AND HUDSON BAY AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE                   
GRADIENTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS             
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP                  
ENHANCE DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CLOUDY                      
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO                
EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 100 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SURFACE RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER                 
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THESE FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO HOLD THE DRY AIR              
IN PLACE WITH EVEN SLOWER ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. 12Z               
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS AS THE MAIN 500 MB SHORTWAVE                  
ENERGY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.               
THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS IN WI AND IA WILL BE DRAMATICALLY                     
DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL KEEP A JUST A                
PROB30 GROUP FOR DET AND DTW AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
FARTHER NORTH FOR FNT AND MBS WILL HAVE TEMPO SHOWERS. MAY HAVE CIGS            
BRIEFLY GO DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT ARE LEFT...            
BUT THEN RISE TO VFR BKN CU DECK WEDNESDAY MORNING.                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
AVIATION...RBP                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH            
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF             
THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE AXIS OF THETA-E                
ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL Q-VECT CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE                
MAXIMIZED. THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT                       
NORTHWARD...BUT HAVE STILL KEPT AN ISOLATED CHANCE BASED ON PRESENCE            
OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY NAM/RUC.                                   
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CWA AND INTENSIFY                
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS NAM/RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THETA-E RIDGE               
AND UPPER DIVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THAT AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH                    
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SHOWALTERS HOVER             
AROUND 0C WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM AND MUCAPE                  
VALUES OF UP TO 500J/KG.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1030 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
AN OCCLUDING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND              
CONTINUES TO USHER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW                  
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. THE LATEST 40 KM RUC SHOWS THE H500 CLOSED MID            
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE SRN NJ COAST. SOME                  
SUNSHINE CONTINUES OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS.  WE HAVE GONE WITH                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE BULK OF THE FCST AREA BASED            
ON THE VIS/IR LOOPS.  WE HAVE ALSO BROUGHT HIGH TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 2-3            
DEGREES IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  LOWER TO MID 60S WILL BE                   
COMMON.  TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDING TO               
OBSERVATIONS. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OR VERY LOW CHANCE OF                
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD            
FROM THE MID AFTERNOON FORWARD INTO THE EVENING.                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 332 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
THE SATELLITE ANIMATION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A CYCLONE WELL                 
OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST DRIFTING EASTWARD WHILE CLOUDINESS WORKS                 
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. CLOUDINESS WAS THICKENING                  
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND A CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED WESTWARD                
TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES. RADAR                       
COMPOSITES INDICATED POSSIBLE RAINFALL OVER LONG ISLAND AND                     
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF RAIN ON                 
THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGH 3 AM. IN ANY CASE...THE RADAR                  
RADAR TREND CONFIRMS THE THICKENING CLOUDINESS.                                 
AVIATION...NESTED GRID...NORTH AMERICAN MESOSCALE AND THE CANADIAN              
SUITE OF MODELS WAS THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORECAST INFORMATION. A                  
BRIEF GLANCE WAS MADE TO THE UNITED KINGDOM AND EUROPEAN MODELS AS              
WELL AS THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE PRODUCT. MOST NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS           
INDICATED SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF               
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE                    
CANADIAN REGIONAL WAS AN EXCEPTION AS IT HAS A DRY FORECAST                     
THROUGH THE EXTENT OF ITS 48-HOUR RANGE (ENDING WEDNESDAY                       
EVENING). WE DEALT WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION LAST WEEK WHEN A                    
BLOCKING CIRCULATION WAS AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST...AND THE MODELS               
DID POORLY. THEY WERE NOT ONLY INCONSISTENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...BUT              
VARIED CONSIDERABLY WITHIN THEMSELVES FROM ONE FORECAST RUN TO                  
ANOTHER. THIS IS TYPICAL OF BLOCKING FLOW SITUATIONS...SO WE DO                 
NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                    
WE THOUGHT THE BEST APPROACH WAS TO BLEND GUIDANCE AND TRY TO                   
ACHIEVE CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES. THIS                     
APPROACH YIELDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL                  
DISTRICT EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL MODELS ARE                       
SUGGESTING SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SYSTEM ON                  
WEDNESDAY AND THE EXPECTED DRYING THAT WOULD OCCUR OVER THE COUNTY              
WARNING AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HIGHER LEVEL OF                 
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON                      
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS                   
MAINTAINED. THESE SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE AIR WILL BE QUITE                
DRY ABOVE ABOUT 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE PROFILES INDICATE A HIGH                   
PROBABILITY OF CLOUDINESS...AND A POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE. THE BEST              
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE IS IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF OUR EASTERN                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA.                                                            
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WE CHOSE TO BLEND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. WE                  
NOTED THAT THE "DRY" MODEL...THE CANADIAN REGIONAL...HAS VERY                   
LITTLE CLOUDINESS FORECAST IN ITS HOURLY CLOUD PRODUCT FROM THE                 
HUDSON VALLEY WESTWARD FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT OF                    
THIS...THE CANADIAN HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES FORECAST               
THAN DOES EITHER THE AVIATION OR NORTH AMERICAN. THUS OUR                       
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SKEWED LOWER THAN THE CANADIAN BECAUSE WE               
WEIGHTED EACH MODEL EQUALLY IN OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.          
BOTTOM LINE...WE'RE SET UP FOR A POSSIBLE FORECAST BUST...                      
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD THE CANADIAN BE RIGHT ON.                        
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE WESTERN LOBE OF AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA                   
CIRCULATION WILL BE DIRECTING TRAFFIC ACROSS THE REGION. AND THAT               
TRAFFIC LOOKS LIKELY TO BE BE BOTTLE-NECKED LATER IN THE WEEK. A                
SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF NEW YORK              
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. A BAND OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BE                  
OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE                 
WEEKEND. THERE WERE TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN MODELS ON THURSDAY. THAT              
DAY MAY WELL TURN OUT TO BE ENTIRELY DRY...BUT BY BLENDING MODEL                
FORECASTS...WE'VE GOT A CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST. ANY                 
RAINFALL THAT OCCURS IS MOST LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT.                
BY FRIDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE                    
SHOULD BE RAINFALL. AND WITH A TRAFFIC JAM LIKELY...THE RAIN MAY                
WELL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT IT'S A TOUGH CALL..THERE IS A CAVEAT.      
SHOULD THE UPPER LEVEL BLOCK BUILD OVER EASTERN CANADA...A PIECE OF             
THE CYCLONE MAY BE FORCED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALLOWING                  
DRIER AIR TO WORK SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. IF THAT OCCURS...MOTHERS               
WILL BE HAPPY. THERE'S A GOOD REASON WHY FORECASTERS SPEAK IN                   
TERMS OF PROBABILITIES.                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH               
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS WILL BACK INTO THE MID                   
HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK FROM ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND...WITH                      
CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VISIBILITY SHOULD               
REMAIN 6 MILES OR BETTER. CEILINGS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER                  
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT                    
FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS                 
BY LATE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW DRIFTS WEST SOUTH OF                   
CAPE COD. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH                    
CEILINGS LIKELY TO BE MVFR TO IFR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                      
OVER THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO                       
REMAIN VFR MUCH OF THE TIME.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF                 
AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE PAST 14 DAYS. THE LAST SOAKING RAIN OVER                 
THE REGION WAS APRIL 23 ALTHOUGH SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES GOT                  
0.10 TO 0.30 INCH THIS PAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE                 
OF RAIN TODAY FROM ALBANY EAST...AND A CHANCE TONIGHT FROM THE                  
HUDSON VALLEY EAST AS A COASTAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD AS                   
IT WEAKENS. 10 HOUR FINE FUEL MOISTURE IS LESS THAN 6 PERCENT                   
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITY TODAY WILL BE                  
30 TO 45 PERCENT WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.                 
THE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER TO AROUND 85 PERCENT TONIGHT AS HIGH                  
AND MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL                 
BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE  TO 6 TO 12 MPH                  
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. FLOWS                  
HAVE AGAIN DROPPED BACK TO BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE HUDSON                   
BETWEEN HADLEY AND WATERFORD WHERE THE FLOW IS SLIGHTLY BOOSTED                 
BY THE RELEASE FROM SACANDAGA LAKE. THE MODELS ARE STILL                        
SUGGESTING WE COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN AROUND THE END                   
OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND AS A DEEP 500 HPA                  
TROF STALLS WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA...                      
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND DIGS SOUTHEAST TO CAPE HATTERAS.                
THE UPPER LOW SETS UP A LOW LEVEL JET OF MOIST AIR OFF THE                      
ATLANTIC SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD DUMP SEVERAL INCHES                 
OF RAIN IN A 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. 24 HOUR FFG VALUES ARE FOR                   
THE MOST PART IN THE 3.5 TO 4.0 INCH RANGE.                                     
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HEMMERICH                                                          
LONG TERM...HEMMERICH                                                           
AVIATION...KILPATRICK                                                           
FIRE WEATHER...KILPATRICK                                                       
HYDROLOGY...KILPATRICK                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
1025 AM EDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.NEAR TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                               
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST                 
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGES THIS MORNING WILL BE TO UPDATE             
THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. IN ADDITION...BASED ON                 
CURRENT SATELITE IMAGE WILL GO WITH A MORE CLOUDY DAY AS OPPOSED TO             
A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.                                                            
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT NEARLY THE SAME SCENARIO AS WE WERE LAST WEEK            
AT THIS TIME WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW AND DETERMINING HOW FAR WEST ANY              
ASSOCIATED PRECIP MAKES IT. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL SPIN NEARLY                   
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF              
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY RETROGRADING NW TOWARDS THE REGION                
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVING QUITE A BIT OF TROUBLE                        
INITIALIZING THE LOW POSITION AND ASSOCIATED RAIN THIS                          
MORNING...WITH THE RUC AND SOMEWHAT THE GFS BEING CLOSEST TO REALITY            
BUT TOO FAR SE WITH LOW POSITION AND QPF.                                       
WITH PRECIP SHOWING UP ON RADAR LESS THAN 75 MILES SE OF                        
LI...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON RAIN MAKING IT INTO EASTERN 1/2 OF            
THE CWA. WILL INCREASE TO CAT POPS ACROSS THIS REGION BY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. WITH MODELS HAVING INITIALIZED MOISTURE TOO FAR SE OF THE            
REGION...WILL SPEED UP ONSET OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN LI AND CONN BY              
MIDDAY AND THEN CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS NW TO             
A NEAR STATIONARY POSITION JUST E OF LI.                                        
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW FAR WEST THE STEADIER RAIN WILL WORK            
AND AMOUNT OF QPF. WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN              
1/3 OF THE CWA...INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL DRY-AIR            
WILL WEAKEN RAIN BANDS AS THEY WORK WESTWARD. BASED ON POSITION OF              
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND CURRENT RADAR            
TRENDS...AM LEANING TOWARDS SOLUTION OF RUC WHICH SHUNTS HEAVIEST               
QPF SOUTH ACROSS CONN AND LI AND NOSING INTO NYC BY LATE IN THE DAY.            
THIS IS SIMILAR IN AREAL QPF COVERAGE TO GFS SOLUTION...EXCEPT 100              
MILES TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE N AND W               
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON                  
VALLEY. GFS QPF LOOKS OVERDONE...BUT AROUND 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL                
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE.                                         
IN TERMS OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR...AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...MOS                   
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN WAY TOO HIGH THE LAST MONTH OR SO...AND SO WILL             
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT BY AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN 1/2 OF CWA             
WITH STRONGER SURFACE RIDGING...AND BY A FEW DEGREES OVER THE                   
EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA WITH STEADIER RAINFALL.                                    
AS FOR WINDS...PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES QUITE TIGHT AND LLJ                    
INCREASES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY BETWEEN RETROGRADING LOW                
PRES AND HIGH PRES TO THE WEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH             
GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND EASTERN CT             
DURING THE DAY. LOWER WIND SPEEDS TO THE WEST.                                  
HAVE GONE WITH COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS ACROSS LI...CONN AND               
NYC BASED ON ABOVE THINKING...AND BLEND ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                              
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHEARS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SURFACE             
LOW PRESSURE FILLING OFFSHORE S OF CAPE COD BY DAYBREAK THURS. WILL             
SLOWLY TAPER POPS FROM W TO E WITH COLD POOL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE            
FEATURES SLIDING EAST...DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY WED NIGHT AS            
FORCING DIMINISHES. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NORMAL ACROSS                   
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ACROSS EASTERN 1/2 WITH               
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA FOR THE END OF THE             
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW MOVING N ALONG THE COAST WILL             
PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA...LIKELY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND               
TSTMS OVER THE AREA LATE THU THROUGH FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD            
UPPER LOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO EDGE CLOSER TO THE                 
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE                     
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND EACH SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH             
THE AREA WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FCST.                   
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST             
OF NYC WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                 
CANADIAN MARITIMES RIDGES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO UPSTATE NY.            
A PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BACK ONTO LONG ISLAND AND                     
EVENTUALLY NYC TODAY AROUND THE LOW WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.              
CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED VFR THROUGH THE DAY...BUT LIGHT RAIN                  
BACKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST WILL SLOWLY CAUSE CIGS TO                 
LOWER. RAIN SHOULD NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON VSBY DUE TO DRY AIR               
NEAR SURFACE...BUT COULD LOWER TO 3-5SM BY EVENING ON LONG ISLAND               
AND SE CT. CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER TO BELOW 030 TOWARD EVENING IN            
EASTERN SECTIONS. UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY AND TIMING OF RAIN                 
COULD RESULT IN A FAST LOWERING TO MVFR ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT                
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
METRO NYC WILL BE LAST TO SEE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE                 
LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO RESTRICT VSBY OR LOWER CIGS TO MVFR. NORTH                  
NORTHEAST FLOW IS STRONGEST OVER LONG ISLAND (CLOSER TO THE LOW) AND            
COULD BE OVER FORECASTED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW DRIFTS.                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST HAS BEEN BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY              
FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD                 
TODAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE...AND WINDS             
WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS DAY PROGRESSES. WILL KEEP                
FLAGS AS THEY ARE. ONE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTS TO AT             
LEAST 25 KT FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUND AS MODELS HAVE                    
INITIALIZED GENERALLY TOO FAR EAST WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO              
THE SOUTH. WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MEANDERING LOW              
WEAKENS...THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE             
NEXT SYSTEM.                                                                    
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED WITH                
NORTHERLY FLOW.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
A LIGHT QPF EVENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH              
UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN FALL POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CONN AND              
LESS AMOUNTS TO THE NW...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH                  
ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY. THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF                
UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.                    
&&                                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN NEW                
JERSEY WILL SEE RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATING              
AS THEY WORK THIS FAR WEST. WINDS WILL BE FAIRY LIGHT OVER THIS AREA            
SO NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED...BUT THE LACK OF RAINFALL             
IN OVER A WEEK AND THE EXPECTED LOW RH VALUES WILL MAKE CONDITIONS              
CONDUCIVE TO THE START OF BRUSH FIRES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ353-355 UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY.              
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350 UNTIL 1 PM WEDNESDAY.                      
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ330 UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MORNING UPDATE: BC                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
910 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EASTERN           
MINNESOTA SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH DEEP              
LAYERED CYCLONIC CURVATURE EXTENDING BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS. STRONGEST           
PRESSURE RISES/RESULTANT SURFACE FLOW WAS NOTED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA           
INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CLOSED             
500MB MEAN LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN SASK PROVINCE WHILE OUT             
AHEAD OF FEATURE VORTICITY MAXIMA ON DOWNWIND SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH               
WAS EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.             
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY ON UPWIND SIDE OF MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH                
DIGS SOUTHEAST EXPECT MEAN 500 LOW TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN                 
DAKOTAS BY 12Z...PER LATEST RUC MODEL. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT              
IN ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT I.E. 700MB POSITIVE OMEGA ESPECIALLY             
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 LATER TONIGHT. WITH STABLE ATMOSPHERIC             
PARAMETERS ADVERTISED EXPECT MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAINFALL              
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. RUC PRECIPITATION/QPF DEPICTION                
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL              
RAINFALL THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL INGEST REMAINDER OF 00Z MODEL                 
DATA/CONSENSUS BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. TEMPERATURE TREND/PROFILE             
SUGGESTING MERCURY DROPPING AT FASTER TREND THAN ANTICIPATED THUS               
WILL ADJUST THAT PORTION OF FORECAST TOO.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS/VSBYS CURRENTLY RUNNING IN VFR CAT HOWEVER LATER TONIGHT AND               
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF                  
HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WINDS ATTM SHOULD FALL INTO THE BREEZY CAT ON                  
WEDNESDAY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH EXPECTED TIGHT NW                  
GRADIENT.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1217 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NW MN...IN THE BEMIDJI-                    
FOSSTON-DETROIT LAKES-PARK RAPIDS AREA WHERE GREATEST                           
CONCENTRATION OF TSRA IS DEVELOPING. COORD WITH DLH AND WILL                    
EXTEND LIKELY POPS THRU THIS EVENING. OVER SCT TSRA DEVELOPING                  
ALONG CU LINE SEEN ON VSBL JUST WEST OF GFK TO MAYVILLE AND THEN                
SOUTH OF FARGO. SFC MAP SHOWS THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW                 
LEVEL DRY AIR PRETTY MUCH HANGING WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE                   
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO MN SHOWING POCKETS OF 1000 J/KG CAPES AND                  
COMPUTED LIFTED INDICES TO -2 PER LAPS.                                         
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO AHEAD AND RAISE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT               
AS WELL. WILL LOOK AT RAISING POPS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH ISSUES REVOLVING ON WHERE...WHEN                
OR IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC MAIN BOUNDARY HAS               
NOW MOVED EAST OF THE FCST AREA WITH 14Z MAP ANALYSIS INDICATING                
TROUGH FROM WEAK LOW NEAR BAUDETTE TO MSP. HOWEVER...MAIN PUSH OF               
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WELL BEHIND THIS                    
FEATURE AND BEHIND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EVER                
SO SLOWLY MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. THIS WAVE HAS HAD MID LEVEL                    
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. WOULD APPEAR BASED ON RUC INSTABILITY                  
PARAMETERS LIFTED INDICES TO -2 AND CAPES TO NR 1000 J/KG WILL                  
OCCUR 21Z-00Z CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY/FAR NW MN...THEN               
MORE STABLE DVL REGION WITH DRIER AIR AT THE SFC TO 850 MB. TEMPS               
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY...BUT 500 MB TEMPS COLDER AS WELL              
WITH 12Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AT -22C AND 12Z ABR                  
SOUNDING SHOWING -20C. ALL IN ALL...GOING FCST OF 30 POPS EAST AND              
SOUTH AREAS TO 20 POP DVL REGION APPEAR REASONABLE. FREEZING                    
LEVELS LOWER THAN MONDAY....MAINLY AROUND 8000 TO 8500 FT AGL.                  
DID UP WINDS IN THE DVL BASIN THIS AFTN AS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE               
20 MPH RANGE ATTM...AND UPPED WINDS TONIGHT-WED AS STORM ORGANIZES              
OVER SRN/CNTRL MN LATE TONIGHT-WED. STRONG WAVE AT 500 MB OVER SRN              
MT/NRN WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST AND RE-DEVELOP SFC LOW TONIGHT.                   
FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS LOW TEMP FCST TONIGHT               
AS THEY SEEM TOO COLD...AND POPS IN THE SOUTH.                                  
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006)                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUNDING                
MOISTURE PROFILE CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCE                
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING              
AS LIGHT WINDS INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FCST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH ISSUES REVOLVING ON WHERE...WHEN                
OR IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC MAIN BOUNDARY HAS               
NOW MOVED EAST OF THE FCST AREA WITH 14Z MAP ANALYSIS INDICATING                
TROUGH FROM WEAK LOW NEAR BAUDETTE TO MSP. HOWEVER...MAIN PUSH OF               
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WELL BEHIND THIS                    
FEATURE AND BEHIND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR EVER                
SO SLOWLY MOVING INTO FAR NW MN. THIS WAVE HAS HAD MID LEVEL                    
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. WOULD APPEAR BASED ON RUC INSTABILITY                  
PARAMETERS LIFTED INDICES TO -2 AND CAPES TO NR 1000 J/KG WILL                  
OCCUR 21Z-00Z CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY/FAR NW MN...THEN               
MORE STABLE DVL REGION WITH DRIER AIR AT THE SFC TO 850 MB. TEMPS               
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY...BUT 500 MB TEMPS COLDER AS WELL              
WITH 12Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWING 500 MB TEMPS AT -22C AND 12Z ABR                  
SOUNDING SHOWING -20C. ALL IN ALL...GOING FCST OF 30 POPS EAST AND              
SOUTH AREAS TO 20 POP DVL REGION APPEAR REASONABLE. FREEZING                    
LEVELS LOWER THAN MONDAY....MAINLY AROUND 8000 TO 8500 FT AGL.                  
DID UP WINDS IN THE DVL BASIN THIS AFTN AS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE               
20 MPH RANGE ATTM...AND UPPED WINDS TONIGHT-WED AS STORM ORGANIZES              
OVER SRN/CNTRL MN LATE TONIGHT-WED. STRONG WAVE AT 500 MB OVER SRN              
MT/NRN WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST AND RE-DEVELOP SFC LOW TONIGHT.                   
FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE...WILL NEED TO ADDRESS LOW TEMP FCST TONIGHT               
AS THEY SEEM TOO COLD...AND POPS IN THE SOUTH.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 250 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUNDING                
MOISTURE PROFILE CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SLIGHT CHANCE                
FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING              
AS LIGHT WINDS INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
856 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE MID STATE FOR             
THE TIME BEING. LATEST 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT                 
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE MIDDLE TN AREA AROUND 09Z LATER TONIGHT.              
LATEST NQA RADAR IMAGE SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP                
JUST WEST OF THE MEMPHIS AREA. EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER                
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO INTO                 
WESTERN AR. ACCORDING TO THE RUC MODEL...THE SAME SHORTWAVE THAT IS             
PRODUCING THE ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AR WILL BE OVER SW TN/NRN MS                  
AROUND 09Z.                                                                     
FOR THE FCST...WILL CLEAN UP WORDING AND INCLUDE POPS ACROSS THE                
ENTIRE MID STATE. WILL INCLUDE AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING IN REGARD TO              
THE POPS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. WILL INCLUDE A 70 POP FOR                        
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH THE POPS DECREASING TO 30 OR 40 ACROSS THE              
PLATEAU. INSTABILITIES WILL ACTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE GET               
TOWARD 12Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SVR FOR THE                    
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS SPC'S SLT RISK IS WEST OF THE TN RIVER THROUGH              
12Z AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE.                                                
AS FOR TEMPS...WILL LOWER VALUES 1 CAT AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE AT                  
PREDICTED LOWS ALREADY. FURTHERMORE...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY            
RANGE FROM 4F TO 7F.                                                            
WIND WISE...WILL ADJUST THE 10-15 MPH ZONES DOWN SLIGHTLY AS                    
GRADIENTS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH BY 12Z.                                          
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
845 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST              
AREA...GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE LAST HOUR OR TWO FOR              
CONVECTION WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS WAS INDICATED WELL                
BY LATEST RUC...WHICH HAD MUCAPE VALUES DIMINISHING THROUGH 06Z                 
THIS EVENING. CURRENT DATA BASE APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET.                  
WE WILL PROBABLY ISSUE UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS...SUCH AS ZFPARX AND               
HWOARX...AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING ONCE ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS              
ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO              
CURRENT FORECAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 220 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
ATTENTION REMAINS ON EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AND EVENTUAL CUTOFF              
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEK.                                        
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL MN...               
WITH COLD FRONT/TROUGH REACHING ESE TO NEAR RICE LAKE WI...THEN                 
SOUTHWEST ALONG A KRGK-KRST-KMCW LINE. CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THIS             
BOUNDARY OVER SE MN...WITH FUNNEL REPORTS. FURTHER EAST...STILL AN              
AREA OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF EASTERN WI AND NORTHERN IL. WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY SHOWING WEAKER SHORT WAVES OVER MN/WI/IL...WITH A STRONGER              
ONE PUNCHING ACROSS SD/NEB.                                                     
INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR NON-SUPERCELL ROTATIONS                
ALONG THE LINE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHING IT                   
CLOSELY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING UNTIL WE             
START TO LOSE THE INSTABILITY.  FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST...              
WEAKENING AND/OR WASHING OUT SOMEWHAT PER MODEL SOLUTIONS.  AS MAIN             
Q-G FORCING FROM PASSING SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST AS WELL...THE RAIN               
CHANCES LOOK TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.                              
UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...WITH BLOCKING TO THE EAST...            
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE WEST SIDE. THIS              
SHOULD RESULT IN WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT INTO                    
WEDNESDAY.  MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER           
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DETAILS OF WHERE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AND               
EVENTUAL WIND/QPF FIELDS SET UP...MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT IMPACT THE                 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  NAM HAS A MUCH              
STRONGER SURFACE LOW SOLUTION...AND SLOWER/FURTHER SOUTH. FAVOR GFS             
WHICH HAS AGREEMENT FROM ENSEMBLES AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.                     
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION               
THROUGH THE WEEK...WOBBLING IN FUJIWHARA FASHION...ACCEPTING                    
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION             
BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS RESULTS IN A RETROGRESSION...KEEPING RAIN                 
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE              
WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS...             
WITH MN/IA ON THE EASTERN FRINGE. OUR EVENTUAL RAIN CHANCES/RESULTS             
WILL KEY ON WHICH AREA WINDS...THE LARGE LOW...OR THE DRY HIGH.                 
RIGHT NOW IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE LOW WILL WIN.                                  
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                        
NO CHANGE IN THE MAIN UPPER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE                  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER CIRCULATION STILL               
STUCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS KEEPS THE LOCAL             
AREA IN THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE LOW AND ITS COOL/SHOWERY                    
WEATHER WRAPPING INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS...AND SURFACE                 
RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES TRYING TO NOSE EAST. HAVE ADDED RAIN             
CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT CONFINED IT TO DAYTIME POPS FOR            
MON/TUE AT THIS POINT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY ASSIST SHOWER                  
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MW                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
200 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON PCPN THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN...                 
WELL...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.                                       
RAIN OVER THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXISTING THETA-E RIDGE AND                
ADVECTION...IN COMBINATION WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN PROGD H5                 
S/W. NAM/GFS DON/T SEEM TO DO THIS S/W JUSTICE GIVEN THE SOLID                  
LOOK TO IT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. RUC HAS PICKED UP ON IT AND MATCHES            
SATELLITE WELL. HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR SOME TIME...             
BUT WILL KEEP A MENTION IN THE EAST THIS EVENING.                               
LOOKS LIKE ONCE THE THETA-E AXIS AND S/W SHIFT E OF THE CWA EARLY               
THIS EVENING...THE PCPN SHOULD END WITH FOG A THREAT LATER ON TONIGHT           
WITH DIMINISHING BNDRY LYR WINDS.                                               
DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST S/W COULD              
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS SOME WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE FOR TOMORROW                   
MORNING. H8 TEMPS MAINTAIN HIGH LEVELS AND WITH THE UPR LEVELS                  
COOLING DOWN A TAD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPR LEVEL LOW...COULD SEE             
ENUF AFTN INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED                        
THUNDERSTORM.                                                                   
AS UPR LOW IS DROPPING THROUGH MN INTO IA WED NGT AND THU...A STRONG            
S/W ROTATES UP THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MI SPARKING RAPID SFC                       
CYCLOGENSIS.  THAT S/W EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH THE UPR LOW AND IT                
ROTATES OVR THE GREAT LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO               
THE DEEPING SFC LOW ON THURSDAY...THE NAM LOOKS UNREASONABLE IN ITS             
STRENGTH.  GRANTED THE UPR JET IS A VERY CLASSIC COUPLED JET                    
SUPPORTING VERY DEEP AND STRONG UVV...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE                   
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW LOOKS UNREASONABLE.  THE GFS LOOKS BETTER IN              
STRENGTH...BUT APPEARS TO LIFT IT TOO FAR NORTH. THE UKMET LOOKS                
LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE.  NEW ECMWF LOOKING SIMILAR TO NAM SOLUTION              
W.R.T. POSITION...BUT A LITTLE WEAKER.                                          
WHATEVER THE FINAL SOLUTION...LOOKS COLD AND WET ON THURSDAY INTO               
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DIMINISHING POP CHCS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
ADDITIONALLY...COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH MAKING FOR UNSEASONABLY               
COOL WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MODERATION LATE IN THE              
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF ACRS                 
CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDG OVER THE W COAST AND ANOTHER BLDG RDG OVER              
SE CAN. SEVERAL SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF. THE                 
FIRST OF THESE IS OVER ERN LK SUP AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE                   
MAJORITY OF THE SHRA THAT FELL ACRS THE FA YDAY. BUT DEEPER MSTR                
DEPARTING/LLJ WEAKENING NOW WITH SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD...SO JUST SCT              
SHRA NOW OVER THE E AND CNTRL ZNS. MOST NMRS SHRA NOW OVER LK MI                
UNDER LINGERING H85 LLJ AXIS. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN MN. THIS              
SYS IN CONCERT WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX               
SDNG HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FM SCNTRL MN INTO NW                
WI/WRN UPR MI NOW ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. SOME OF             
THESE TSRA DROPPED SEVERE HAIL OVER NW WI...AND A SPOTTER AT                    
MARENISCO IN GOGEBIC COUNTY REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL LAST EVNG.                  
ANOTHER STRG SHRTWV NOTED ACRS SE SD INTO WY WITH YET ANOTHER MOVING            
SE FM SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT.                                                 
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN            
MN. FOCUS FOR WED NGT-FRI INVOLVES PHASING OF SEPARATE SHRTWVS NOW              
TO THE W AND DEGREE/TIMING OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS/IMPACT ON FA.                    
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN MN PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT TO THE NE                
DOWNSTREAM OF FALLING HGTS/DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS               
UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS THERE. 100KT H3 JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH             
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SE MN IN THE AFTN...               
PLACING FA IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THESE EVENTS FAVOR             
SCT MRNG SHRA DIMINISHING/MID CLD DRYING UNDER MID LVL DNVA/H85-5               
QVECTOR DVGC. AS MID LVL CLD STRIPS AWAY...MRNG FOG/ST WL BURN OFF              
AND ALLOW FOR SFC HTG TO RAISE TEMPS TOWARD 70 PER DEEP MIXING ON               
GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION. BOTH                
GFS/NAM SHOW A LLVL MSTR SURGE IN ADVANCE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC TROF             
ADVECTING INTO THE SCNTRL AS EVIDENCED BY 1000-850MB AXIS OF MIXING             
RATIO OF 8G/KG. NAM FCST SDNGS FOR SFC T/TD 70/53 NR IMT SHOW SB                
CAPE APRCHG 1500 J/KG...BUT GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE MORE STABILITY              
WITH GREATER MID LVL WRMG IN RIGHT EXIT OF UPR JET. BOTH MODELS ALSO            
SHOW COLD FNT APRNTLY ACCENTUATED BY LK SUP COOLING MOVING INTO THE             
WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN...AND THIS BNDRY/LLVL MSTR CNVGC SHOULD SERVE AS            
A FOCUS FOR CNVCTN. EVEN THOUGH NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW DECENT SB                   
INSTABILITY...MODEL PARADOXICALLY DOES NOT GENERATE CNVCTN...                   
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF LO KINX FCST (20-25) IN PRESENCE OF MID LVL             
WRMG/DRYING. ANY TSRA THAT DVLP COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH WBZ                
FCST ARND 7500 FT PER GFS/NAM...BUT MID LVL WRMG SHOULD MITIGATE THE            
SVR THREAT AS WELL AS SHRA COVG.                                                
SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROF IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO TAKE              
SHAPE IN THE OH VALLEY THIS EVNG. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FA WL              
WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WHILE COOLER LK SUP MODIFIED AIR/FOG/             
ST ADVECTS INTO THE FA NW TO SE. MODELS APPEAR TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE             
FEEDBACK OVERNGT AS SFC LO DEEPENS RPDLY AND MOVES INTO CNTRL LWR MI            
BY 12Z THU. PER NCEP DISCUSSION...GFS/UKMET SOLN PREFERRED FOR FCST             
DETAILS. LARGE SCALE UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AND                  
MOISTENING FCST TO ENVELOP THE FA SE-NW TO THE N OF CLOSING H5 LO TO            
THE S. SO EXPECT STEADY RA TO BRK OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THESE                 
DYNAMICS. GFS ALSO SHOWS H925 WINDS INCRSG TO AOA 50KTS IN                      
SHARPENING CYC FLOW TO THE NW OF LO CENTER SUPPORT GOING WITH HI END            
GALE WRNG OVER LK SUP WITH MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. GFS FCST               
SDNGS INDICATE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS/STRONG              
CYC NNE FLOW/UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS IN DEFORMATION ZN WL BE                     
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE RA TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN OVER THE INTERIOR W             
AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON THU AND INTO THE EVNG BEFORE OCCLUSION             
PROCESS/WEAKENING OF THE SFC LO CAUSE THESE DYNAMICS TO FADE THU                
NGT. COMBINATION OF ADVY LEVEL SN/WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR TREE LIMBS             
TO BREAK OVER POWER LINES JUSTIFIES WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE IN              
THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL WIND/SN CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.               
FARTHER E...LOOK FOR DRY SLOTTING TO DIMINISH PCPN INTENSITY ON THU             
AFTN. PCPN INTENSITY WL DIMINISH EVERYWHERE ON THU NGT AS LO BEGINS             
TO FILL. LOSS OF STRONGER UVV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC COOLING WL DIMINISH            
ACCUMULATING SN AS WELL.                                                        
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX/DLH/YYZ.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       WINTER STORM WATCH THU AND THU EVNG MIZ002-009-010-084.                  
       HIGH WIND WATCH THU MIZ004>006-012.                                      
       GALE WRNG LK SUP.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
123 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER WAVES TO BRUSH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO                 
FRIDAY MORNING. WAVE APPROACHING NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUES TO            
SHEAR NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING MOST OF THE                       
PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AS WELL. UPPER JET TO ROTATE              
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WELL. AS A RESULT LITTLE SYNOPTIC LIFT               
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE GENESEE AND SAGINAW VALLEY                  
06-12Z. THESE WEAK UPPER WAVES THAT MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN WILL ENCOUNTER DEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN                
GREAT LAKES...AND DRY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH               
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO ANTICIPATE JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH                
STEADY THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE             
RATES A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MOISTURE AXIS IS SLOW TO            
MOVE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WINDS UP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND              
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE AXIS WILL POSITION OVER THE REGION              
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT            
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...BUT WITH LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE            
LIFT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.                 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO WIND UP RAPIDLY 00Z-06Z AND BEYOND...AS IT               
DRIVES NORTH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT EASTERLY WINDS WILL            
INCREASE RAPIDLY 04Z-12Z WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE ORGANIZED                     
CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                             
OUR TRANQUIL SPRING WEATHER OF LATE WILL BE COMING TO END AS WE                 
TRANSITION TOWARD A DEEPENING UPPER...AND SURFACE...LOW INCLUDING               
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.                                               
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF I75 THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH                 
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA FROM THE CONVECTION             
ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS DRIER AIR WILL BE HARD TO DISLODGE AS MODEL             
PROGS SUGGEST 925MB AGEOSTROPHIC WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST                    
OVERNIGHT WHICH MIGHT HALT THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIP.                   
YET...STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID              
LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL COOLING ALOFT IS SCHEDULED PER THE NCEP SUITE              
AND LATEST RUC TO WARRANT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS                    
OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE WILL TRIM BACK TIMING OF PRECIP BUT KEEP             
THE LOW POP MENTION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE CLOUDS                   
INCREASING...TEMPS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DROP BACK MUCH FURTHER               
THAN MIDDLE 50S.                                                                
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHALLENGING PRECIP FORECAST DAY AS INITIAL SHOT             
OF THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE REGION AS POTENT             
JET DIVES DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE MIDDLE                       
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A BREAK IN THE            
PRECIP COVERAGE MIDDAY HOURS BUT TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES REMAINS AN             
ISSUE.  OMEGA PATTERNS WITHIN THESE MODELS ARE QUITE AMAZING WITH               
THE GFS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH                   
SPONTANEOUS SHORT WAVE WHICH PROPELS THROUGH THE MODEL SIMULATION               
WHILE THE NAM SEEMS TO GO OFF THE DEEP END TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN OFFER A GOOD COMPROMISE WHICH SUGGEST THE                
BULK OF THE NEXT PRECIP ARRIVES LATE IN THE DAY SOUTH OF I94.  IF WE            
DO OBSERVE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...WE COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS            
QUICKLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 70S.  AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER                   
APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND BEST FORCING REMAINING                   
UPSTREAM FROM OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                    
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE                  
DEVELOPMENT OF A RATHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MAY THAT IS EXPECTED            
TO IMPACT THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE            
UPPER LOW OVER THE SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA BORDER WILL DROP INTO THE               
UPPER MIDWEST BY WED NIGHT AND AMPLIFY AS RIDGING OVER EASTERN                  
CANADA STRENGTHENS AND A 120KT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE BASE OF THE             
UPPER LOW. EXPECT THERE TO BE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER               
OHIO VALLEY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER              
JET SUPPORT. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS SURFACE LOW AS            
IT HEADS INTO LOWER MI WED NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO SUFFER              
FROM SOME SERIOUS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WHICH LIKELY IS CAUSING IT              
TO DEEPEN THE LOW TOO QUICKLY. THIS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON THE GFS              
ACTUALLY LOOKS TO AFFECT THE OVERALL 500MB PATTERN BY CAUSING THE               
UPPER LOW TO REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURS AS                
OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES PER MODEL CONSENSUS. THE            
NAM LOOKS A BIT STRONG WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE               
GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT...IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW TOO                  
RAPIDLY. AT THIS TIME...PREFERENCE IS TOWARD A SURFACE LOW TRACK AND            
TIMING SIMILAR TO THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF...WHICH                  
BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI BY THURS MORNING. GIVEN            
THE STRONG DYNAMICS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND 990MB OR LOWER               
LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.                                                          
AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN               
MICHIGAN WED NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. AMPLE MOIST                   
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS               
WED NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO AMPLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.             
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATERS                   
INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES WED NIGHT...WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND                
+12C AND 700MB DEWPOINTS AROUND +2C. THE DEPTH OF THE WARM CLOUD                
LAYER AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTS SOME HEAVY             
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS                   
SYSTEM...PRECIP SHOULD LINGER INTO THURS MORNING BEFORE AN                      
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE SLIGHT                     
DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...WILL NOT TRY TO TIME THE              
DRY SLOT ON THURS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT LIKELY POPS. DESPITE            
THE DIFFERENCES...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL DEFORMATION              
AND MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL THURS WILL SET UP TO THE            
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                      
A REX BLOCK WILL BECOME FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA            
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO NORTHERN                 
QUEBEC AND HUDSON BAY AND THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ONLY GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES AND MOISTURE                   
GRADIENTS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM TO PROVIDE PERIODS OF SHOWERS             
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALSO HELP                  
ENHANCE DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN CLOUDY                      
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO                
EXTEND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....CONSIDINE                                                          
AVIATION.....GSS                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
505 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK              
LOOKS LIKELY TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SHIFTS THIS WAY FOR THE            
CONVECTIVE GRAND FINALE. THE AIR MASS REMAINS HIGHLY UNSTABLE AS IT             
HAS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL BE RIPE FOR THE SHORTWAVES AND               
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE            
CONVECTION WAS ONGOING THIS MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES               
ACROSS NRN AREAS...LAYING DOWN YET ANOTHER POSSIBLE OUTFLOW TO FOCUS            
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH. SATELLITE PIX SHOW THE SRN EDGE             
OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LIFTING NEWD AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP...                 
SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE MS RIVER DELTA REGION WILL SEE                     
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RECOVERY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS BY              
THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THIS             
AFTERNOON WITH THE RUC DEVELOPING A 50 KT 850 MB JET INTO CENTRAL AND           
NRN ZONES BY 18Z. LOW LEVEL INDICES INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE              
AFTERNOON TODAY. 0-1KM FIELDS INCLUDE HELICITY VALUES FROM 150-                 
250...3000+CAPE AND VGP VALUES FROM .5-.8. WOULD POINT TOWARD A                 
SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH HIGHER WINDS AND VERY LARGE           
HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR.                                     
VERY DEEP CONVECTION IN AN AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.                
REGIONAL FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK RELATIVELY LOW. SIX                  
HOURLY GUIDANCE NUMBERS REMAIN BELOW 3 INCHES AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH            
A FEW BELOW 2 INCHES. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SE AR AND              
NRN MS FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONSIDERING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAT HAD            
OCCURRED ACROSS THAT AREA THIS MORNING.                                         
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND               
SWING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. NOTICEABLY                  
COOLER TEMPS WILL BE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS            
COLD FRONT. /03/                                                                
LONGER TERM(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY NOW BEING PROGGED TO SINK SSEWD INTO             
THE TN VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE THE CONTROLLING               
FACTOR FOR OUR CWFA AS NWLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
PWATS DRY UP FROM THE NW THURSDAY TO LESS THAN 1/2 INCH AND REMAIN              
THAT WAY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON SATURDAY WHEN A SWATH OF 1 INCH             
PWATS SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION. DRY AIR THEN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT             
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WITH A DRY SLOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL                   
MOISTURE WRAPS IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF SOME            
HAIL PRODUCING STORMS. CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE(1017MB) WILL              
MOVE FROM CENTRAL TX FRIDAY EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST TO FL BY                  
SATURDAY(1014MB). ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE DIVES SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL           
CONUS ON SUNDAY BUT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW               
CENTER LIFTS OUT OF ERN TN.                                                     
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE U40S AND 50S FRIDAY THROUGH               
MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL BE LIKELY LASTING FOR POSSIBLY A           
5 DAY STRETCH DEPENDING ON DIURNAL TIMING OF CLOUD COVER EACH DAY SATURDAY      
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIMITED RETURNING MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT COULD                  
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SHRA SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY              
OVER SRN PORTIONS. ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD RESULT IN MORE SCATTERED               
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A MORE STOUT REX BLOCK PATTERN CONTINUES            
ON THE ECMWF WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE LOWER MS VALLEY MORE WNW AND THE           
LOW CENTER STAYING IN KY. SHORTWAVES IN THIS REGIME YIELD UNCERTAINTY           
AND LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THESE             
SETUPS CAN LEAD TO SEWD-MOVING HAILSTORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR./40/                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       87  54  77  51 /  81  50   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      84  54  77  48 /  80  68   2   0                                  
VICKSBURG     87  54  78  52 /  83  37   0   0                                  
HATTIESBURG   88  59  80  50 /  80  65   4   0                                  
NATCHEZ       85  55  79  50 /  80  36   0   0                                  
GREENVILLE    82  50  76  50 /  90  29   0   0                                  
GREENWOOD     84  51  74  49 /  90  42   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-                   
     MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-                   
     MSZ039.                                                                    
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR           
     ARZ074-ARZ075.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
03/40                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
350 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-THU NGT)...                                                   
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS FOR THIS               
EVENT BUT NOTHING IS WRITTEN IN STONE ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS.                
GOING WITH GFS SO USING THAT FOR TIMING. THE MORNING SHOULD BE                  
DRY...CMH AND DAY HAD SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY AM...NOT MUCH ON               
RADAR AND THE RUC ALSO AGREES DRY. LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE AND GFS             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE SEEM BEST IT                
DEFINITELY WON'T BE CLOUDY TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE               
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS                                   
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BACKING DOWN TO CHANCE POPS BASED ON HIGHEST              
MOISTURE STAYING WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH 6 PM AND LIMITING IT TO NW              
OHIO. WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST TONIGHT              
AS LOW MOVES NORTH OF INDIANA AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP THROUGH            
THE AREA. AMS NOT REAL UNSTABLE...PLENTY OF SHEAR...SPC CONVECTIVE              
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 LOOKS GOOD...WITH THE TIME OF DAY THE FRONT IS                
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HOLD THE SEVERE THREAT DOWN. THE HIGHEST QPF              
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...ATTM WILL GO WITH QPF AMOUNTS UNDER               
TWO INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIX HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE WAY              
OVER 2 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SINCE IT HAS BEEN DRY WE SHOULD BE            
ABLE TO HANDLE IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST SLOWLY                   
THURSDAY MORNING THEN INSTABILIY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C. AS SPC SAID SOME               
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR THURSDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND                
INSTABILITY SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THU NIGHT. ATTM SINCE IT              
IS NIGHTTIME WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER BUT THIS HAS TO BE MONITORED.             
MAV MOS FOR TODAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON SOME CLOUDS AND SUN...GENERALLY            
DRY AND UPSTREAM TEMPS ON TUESDAY. BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
ONLY THE ERIE PA AND ASHTABULA LAKESHORE SEEM TO HAVE A CHANCE AT A             
BRIEF LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR OTHER PERIODS WENT CLOSE TO               
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-TUE)...                                                          
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED. IT DOES LOOKS LIKE A THREAT            
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TIMING IS STILL TOUGH...KEPT IT                
CHANCE POPS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW IS STILL              
IN QUESTION.                                                                    
THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                   
EXTENDED FCST IS DIFFCULT IN THE FACT THAT EACH DAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN            
THE MODELS BUT IN REALITY EACH DAY WILL HAVE DISTINCT FEATURES TO               
DEAL WITH THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE WEATHER. WITH THE BIG UPPER              
LOW DEVELOPING AND SEEMINGLY STAYING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL REMAIN ON            
THE MILD AND UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DAYS THAT WE SEE SOME                 
SUNSHINE WILL BE MILD AND CONVECTIVE WHILE THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR              
CLOUDY COOL AND SHOWERY DAYS AS WELL SO MAX TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM              
THE 50S UP TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S OR SO. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE               
AND END UP WITH MOST DAYS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SAME ISSUE AT NIGHT             
WITH LOW TEMPS. IF WE WOULD HAPPEN TO GET AN EVENING THAT CLEARS                
THEN IT COULD DROP INTO THE 30S BUT A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY NIGHT WILL             
STAY CLOSER TO 50. AGAIN...WILL PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE                
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND                 
SHOWERS MIGHT BE FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED                
SHOWERS DEVELOP. NOT SURE ABOUT THREAT OF THUNDER...WILL LEAVE IT               
OUT OF MOST DAYS BUT WITH AIR GETTING COLDER ALOFT COULD BE UNSTABLE            
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO SEE            
SOME PROGRESSION TO THE PATTERN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                           
PLETHORA OF CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL               
BEGIN WITH ONGOING MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND PRECIP TIMING.  AT THE               
MOMENT...AND HAS BEEN THE STORY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...GFS AND            
NAM HAVE THEIR OWN VERY DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS OF WHAT WILL OCCUR            
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...NAM THE FASTER OF            
THE TWO MODELS PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH INTO PA BY MIDNIGHT.  GFS              
BARELY HAS THE FRONT INTO ERIE BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 8AM.  GFS                 
MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING AND FOLLOWED ITS TIMING CLOSELY.  00Z              
GFS RUN A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN...SO BACKED OFF A BIT ON ONSET            
OF PRECIP AT WESTERN TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 00Z...NO MENTION OF                  
PRECIP AT ALL EAST OF CLEVELAND AS IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER THE END              
OF THE PERIOD BEFORE CAK YNG AND ERI SEE RAIN SHOWERS.  AFTER                   
00Z...BROUGHT IN PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST...STARTING AT TOL AND FDY             
AROUND 00Z...MAKING IT INTO CLE BY 05Z.  CIGS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN             
CONSIDERABLY ONCE RAIN BEGINS...BRINGING DOWN VSBYS IN THE PROCESS.             
WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AND WILL ADDRESS POSSIBLE GUSTS              
WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE.                                                         
ALSO HAVING A HARD TIME BUYING INTO LOW CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF             
THE MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.  IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING AREAS OF                 
CLEAR SKIES OVER INDIANA AT THE MOMENT...NO MODEL HAS THIS DEPICTED             
WHATSOEVER. THINK THAT WHILE SKIES WILL PROBABLY NOT GO                         
COMPLETELY CLEAR...WILL SEE MORE STARS THAN CLOUDS BEFORE DAYBREAK              
DESPITE GUIDANCE INDICATING OTHERWISE.  DID CONTINUE TO MENTION CB\S            
AFTER NOON AND VCSH AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW               
FOR A MUGGY MOIST AFTERNOON.  EVEN WITH POP UP CUMULUS...CIGS SHOULD            
REMAIN VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.                                                    
ONLY OTHER ITEM THIS MORNING IS POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE AT ERIE.  WITH             
ERIE BEING SO FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER               
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST ACROSS NW PA             
AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE ONCE AGAIN AROUND 18Z. LIKE                  
YESTERDAY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH AT CLE TO                  
INHIBIT ANY SORT OF MID-DAY WIND SHIFT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LEINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
414 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD ACROSS THE MID STATE                
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 300 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY AROUND 60 DEGREES.          
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IN MIDDLE        
TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND            
DAMAGING. THE GFS, WHICH FORECASTS STRONGER 0-3KM HELICITIES FOR THIS           
AFTERNOON THAN THE NGM AND ETA, APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST FORECAST               
FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN FACT, A 06Z                          
COMPARISON OF THE ETA, NGM AND GFS WITH THE MORE RECENT RUC SHOWED THAT         
THE ETA AND NGM WERE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RUC WITH THEIR LOW            
LEVEL HELICITIES.                                                               
EXPECT FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM AN MCS, CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH      
WESTERN TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS INTO WESTERN             
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED               
FURTHER EAST.                                                                   
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,       
WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SECOND HEAVY RAIN                    
EVENT, WHICH MOVES IN WITH THE AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT,                  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH MAY                 
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON,          
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF OUR AREA GETS DOUSED BY THIS FIRST ROUND OF            
STORMS THIS MORNING.                                                            
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU          
AFTER SUNSET, WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                 
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON. AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES FALL TO AROUND 6000 FT ASL, BELIEVE          
JUST ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST               
SMALL HAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE         
HAIL EITHER.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL EXTENDED PERIOD              
COMING UP, AS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DIVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH       
THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS NOW DROPS THE CENTER ALL THE                
WAY DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAKING FOR AN ABSURD-LOOKING                     
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH COLD POOL SETTLING         
IN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                      
"HAILERS" TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE    76  56  69  48 /  90  50  30  10                                   
CLARKSVILLE  77  54  67  44 /  90  40  30  10                                   
CROSSVILLE   73  55  66  43 /  70  70  30  30                                   
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...                      
LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...AND WAYNE.                    
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                 
FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...                        
HUMPHREYS...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...                  
AND WAYNE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
414 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY AND MIDL ACROSS THE MID STATE                
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH 300 AM TEMPERATURES MAINLY AROUND 60 DEGREES.          
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES IN MIDDLE        
TENNESSEE TODAY AND THIS EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND            
DAMAGING. THE GFS, WHICH FORECASTS STRONGER 0-3KM HELICITIES FOR THIS           
AFTERNOON THAN THE NGM AND ETA, APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST FORECAST               
FOR THIS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN FACT, A 06Z                          
COMPARISON OF THE ETA, NGM AND GFS WITH THE MORE RECENT RUC SHOWED THAT         
THE ETA AND NGM WERE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE RUC WITH THEIR LOW            
LEVEL HELICITIES.                                                               
EXPECT FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM AN MCS, CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH      
WESTERN TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS INTO                     
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST, WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED            
FURTHER EAST.                                                                   
WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE,       
WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SECOND HEAVY RAIN                    
EVENT, WHICH MOVES IN WITH THE AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER EVENT,                  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THIS WATCH MAY                 
NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER EAST LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON,          
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF OUR AREA GETS DOUSED BY THIS FIRST ROUND OF            
STORMS THIS MORNING.                                                            
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU          
AFTER SUNSET, WITH PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST                   
AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                                 
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON. AS WET BULB ZERO VALUES FALL TO AROUND 6000 FT ASL, BELIEVE          
JUST ABOUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST               
SMALL HAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE         
HAIL EITHER.                                                                    
.LONG TERM...STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL EXTENDED PERIOD              
COMING UP, AS CLOSE UPPER LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO DIVE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH        
THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY. LATEST GFS NOW DROPS THE CENTER ALL THE                
WAY DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAKING FOR AN ABSURD-LOOKING                     
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH COLD POOL SETTLING         
IN ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                      
"HAILERS" TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE    76  56  69  48 /  90  50  30  10                                   
CLARKSVILLE  77  54  67  44 /  90  40  30  10                                   
CROSSVILLE   73  55  66  43 /  70  70  30  30                                   
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                
ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...                      
LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...AND WAYNE.                    
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE                 
FOLLOWING ZONES: BENTON...DICKSON...HICKMAN...HOUSTON...                        
HUMPHREYS...LAWRENCE...LEWIS...MONTGOMERY...PERRY...STEWART...                  
AND WAYNE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
404 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO                   
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT AND COOLING ALOFT TO REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS               
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE SWD INTO THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE FCST AREA.               
THINK STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. MEANWHILE STRONG                
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OR...MORE LIKELY...OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT HAS           
MOVED THROUGH THE FCST AREA. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE            
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. WILL ALSO HAVE TO DEAL              
WITH EXPANDING STRATUS DECK. 06Z RUC APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE            
ON THIS WITH LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS LINGERING AT LEAST TO THE LATE               
MORNING HOURS MOST LOCATIONS...AND POSSIBLY LONGER. THUS COOLER                 
TREND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS A GOOD START...AND IF THE STRATUS LINGERS             
LONGER THAN EXPECTED WILL STRUGGLE TO GET CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.            
CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK SLIM AS            
FRONT SHOULD PUSH WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS 1026 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES               
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHS                
RETURNING INTO THE MID 70S. SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THURS NIGHT                
WITH LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING NR THE TX/NM BORDER ON FRIDAY. DRY                
AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FAVOR A BIG WARMUP               
WITH TEMPS SOME 10-15 DEGS WARMER THAN THURS.                                   
FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AS              
THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PRESSES TWD THE CWA WITH ANOTHER                   
STRONG VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING SOUTH AROUND DEEP UPR LOW LOCATED                
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL CALL FOR HIGHS RANGING FM THE                
MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LWR 90S SOUTHWEST. IF FRONT DOES MOVE THROUGH              
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...THESE TEMPS WILL BE SVRL DEGS COOLER.                 
THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL                    
BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED...FEATURING AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPR LOW                    
ACROSS THE EAST CONUS AND A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL                
PLACE WEST TEXAS IN A FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MORE                 
TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER THAN LATE SPRING. CHC FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN               
TO INCREASE BY SUN NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPSLOPE                 
FLOW RETURNS NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.               
BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE MESOSCALE                        
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAINLY DURG THE NIGHTTIME HRS THROUGH THIS                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        67  43  74  48 /  10  10  10   0                                  
TULIA         66  43  74  47 /  10   0   0   0                                  
PLAINVIEW     67  44  74  48 /   0   0  10   0                                  
LEVELLAND     71  46  76  49 /  10  10  10   0                                  
LUBBOCK       69  46  76  52 /  10  10  10   0                                  
BROWNFIELD    74  47  77  48 /  10  10  10  10                                  
CHILDRESS     69  47  77  53 /  10   0   0  10                                  
SPUR          70  48  76  51 /  10   0  10  10                                  
ASPERMONT     71  48  77  52 /  10   0  10  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/21                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1049 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE TO DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT...CANCEL FLOOD WATCH AND TWEAK            
POPS AND CLOUDS.                                                                
LARGER AREA OF RAIN SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION AREA OF             
UPPER WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH SE KS/W MO. THERE ARE             
STILL A NUMBER OF WEAKER WAVES...VIA WATER VAPOR AND                            
PROFILERS...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP ISO TO SCT SHOWERS AROUND              
FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE             
OVER SE KS...ONLY AROUND AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.               
THEREFORE WILL CANCEL FLOOD WATCH.                                              
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SATURATED GROUNDS...WILL DROP HIGHS TODAY             
TO THE LOWER 60S WHICH MAY EVEN BEEN TOO WARM IN A FEW LOCATIONS                
THAT STAY SOCKED IN. IT ALSO APPEARS THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WILL NOT             
PAN OUT PER LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE. SO ALSO DROPPED WIND SPEEDS                
OVER MOST OF AREA.                                                              
LAWSON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE SOUTH               
CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING A                
NICE CUSP MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO GOOD CYGLOGENISIS                
TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING              
THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 300 AND 305K MOVING OUT OF SOUTH             
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY NOON. SOUTHEAST STILL HAS THE BETTER            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO                
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW.                                       
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING               
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS AGAIN NOT THE BEST...WITH THE GFS                      
CONTINUING TO BE THE STRONGER MODEL. CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY IS MEDIUM.            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERGOING                   
CYCLOGENESIS IN WESTERN KANSAS...MOVING MAINLY EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS                 
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT IN SOUTHERN                     
KANSAS. WITHOUT THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...PRECIPITATION THAT                  
DOES FALL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING                 
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. WITH THAT SAID...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...AND THE                      
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITH FLASH FLOOD                     
GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1 INCH /FOR ONE HOUR...THREE HOUR...AND SIX              
HOUR/...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THIS REGION.                 
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION.               
WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ONLY                             
CHAUTAUQUA...WILSON...MONTGOMERY...LABETTE AND NEOSHO COUNTIES.                 
ALL OTHERS WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS MORNINGS ZONE ISSUANCE.                  
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY               
WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. ALL OF               
KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF              
THE WEEK. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY DAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE               
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...AND SHOULD WARM UP QUITE A BIT             
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                                       
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                             
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. REGARDING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT WE              
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH TOO            
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS WELL...AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE            
INFLUENCE OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE                   
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE LITTLE                 
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                              
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    68  47  71  46 /  40  10  10   5                                
HUTCHINSON      67  47  70  45 /  20  10   5   5                                
NEWTON          68  48  69  45 /  40  10  10   5                                
ELDORADO        68  46  69  45 /  50  10  10   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  45  72  46 /  50  10  10   5                                
RUSSELL         66  46  69  45 /  10  10   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      67  45  70  46 /  10  10   5   5                                
SALINA          67  45  70  46 /  20  10   5   5                                
MCPHERSON       67  47  70  45 /  20  10   5   5                                
COFFEYVILLE     68  42  71  46 / 100  10  10   5                                
CHANUTE         68  46  69  45 /  90  10  10   5                                
IOLA            68  44  68  45 /  80  10  10   5                                
PARSONS-KPPF    68  44  70  45 / 100  10  10   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
753 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE SOUTH               
CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING A                
NICE CUSP MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS DUE TO GOOD CYGLOGENISIS                
TAKING PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING              
THE BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 300 AND 305K MOVING OUT OF SOUTH             
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY NOON. SOUTHEAST STILL HAS THE BETTER            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO                
KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR NOW.                                       
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING               
AND THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.                                         
TODAY:                                                                          
MODEL INITIALIZATION WAS AGAIN NOT THE BEST...WITH THE GFS                      
CONTINUING TO BE THE STRONGER MODEL. CONFIDENCE FOR TODAY IS MEDIUM.            
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERGOING                   
CYCLOGENESIS IN WESTERN KANSAS...MOVING MAINLY EASTWARD ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS OKLAHOMA THIS                 
MORNING...AND INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT IN SOUTHERN                     
KANSAS. WITHOUT THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...PRECIPITATION THAT                  
DOES FALL SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING                 
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM. WITH THAT SAID...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAS              
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...AND THE                      
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODING. WITH FLASH FLOOD                     
GUIDANCE VALUES AROUND 1 INCH /FOR ONE HOUR...THREE HOUR...AND SIX              
HOUR/...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THIS REGION.                 
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS              
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION.               
WE WILL BE EXTENDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ONLY                             
CHAUTAUQUA...WILSON...MONTGOMERY...LABETTE AND NEOSHO COUNTIES.                 
ALL OTHERS WILL BE CANCELLED WITH THIS MORNINGS ZONE ISSUANCE.                  
TONIGHT-FRIDAY:                                                                 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS YESTERDAY               
WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. ALL OF               
KANSAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF              
THE WEEK. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREEZY DAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE               
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. TEMPERATURES                  
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THURSDAY...AND SHOULD WARM UP QUITE A BIT             
ON FRIDAY WITH THE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.                                       
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY:                                                             
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT                 
LAKES FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE                     
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. REGARDING THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT WE              
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A COUPLE DAYS NOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK MUCH TOO            
DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS WELL...AND THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE            
INFLUENCE OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE                   
REMOVED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY. OTHERWISE LITTLE                 
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                              
SCHRECK                                                                         
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    68  47  71  46 /  40  10  10   5                                
HUTCHINSON      67  47  70  45 /  20  10   5   5                                
NEWTON          68  48  69  45 /  40  10  10   5                                
ELDORADO        68  46  69  45 /  50  10  10   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  45  72  46 /  50  10  10   5                                
RUSSELL         66  46  69  45 /  10  10   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      67  45  70  46 /  10  10   5   5                                
SALINA          67  45  70  46 /  20  10   5   5                                
MCPHERSON       67  47  70  45 /  20  10   5   5                                
COFFEYVILLE     68  42  71  46 / 100  10  10   5                                
CHANUTE         68  46  69  45 /  90  10  10   5                                
IOLA            68  44  68  45 /  80  10  10   5                                
PARSONS-KPPF    68  44  70  45 / 100  10  10   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ095-096-098>100.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL.                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM             
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH DRYING PROMINENT DRYING            
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WRN LAKE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPR LVL JET                  
STREAK. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER SW MN INTO NE NEB.            
AT THE SFC...A TROF/FRONT EXTENDED FROM S CNTRL LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR             
KDLH LEAVING MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A               
FRONT OVER WRN WI. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED DIMINISHING CLOUDS OVER                
CNTRL UPR WHILE SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WERE MOVING FROM NW INTO FAR WRN            
UPR MI NEAR KIWD. MDLS SUGGEST THE FRONT/TROF THROUGH UPR MI WILL               
SAG SOUTHWARD AIDED BY LK BREEZE FROM LK SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD BE               
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS MODIFIED 12Z                  
NAM/RUC SNDGS OVER CNTRL UPR MI WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT NEAR 70/52 STILL             
GIVE SBCAPES NEAR 1K J/KG. NAM/RUC ALSO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD                     
GENERATION OF MORE CONVECTIVE QPF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS AREA              
COMES INTO MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL              
JET TOWARD 00Z. WITH RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND WBZ...SMALL              
HAIL WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WITH ANY             
STRONGER STORMS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 430 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                            
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF ACRS                 
CNTRL NAMERICA BTWN RDG OVER THE W COAST AND ANOTHER BLDG RDG OVER              
SE CAN. SEVERAL SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF. THE                 
FIRST OF THESE IS OVER ERN LK SUP AND WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE                   
MAJORITY OF THE SHRA THAT FELL ACRS THE FA YDAY. BUT DEEPER MSTR                
DEPARTING/LLJ WEAKENING NOW WITH SHRTWV LIFTING NEWD...SO JUST SCT              
SHRA NOW OVER THE E AND CNTRL ZNS. MOST NMRS SHRA NOW OVER LK MI                
UNDER LINGERING H85 LLJ AXIS. ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN MN. THIS              
SYS IN CONCERT WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX               
SDNG HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA FM SCNTRL MN INTO NW                
WI/WRN UPR MI NOW ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. SOME OF             
THESE TSRA DROPPED SEVERE HAIL OVER NW WI...AND A SPOTTER AT                    
MARENISCO IN GOGEBIC COUNTY REPORTED PEA-SIZED HAIL LAST EVNG.                  
ANOTHER STRG SHRTWV NOTED ACRS SE SD INTO WY WITH YET ANOTHER MOVING            
SE FM SASKATCHEWAN INTO ERN MT.                                                 
MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS IMPACT OF SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN            
MN. FOCUS FOR WED NGT-FRI INVOLVES PHASING OF SEPARATE SHRTWVS NOW              
TO THE W AND DEGREE/TIMING OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS/IMPACT ON FA.                    
FOR TDAY...SHRTWV NOW OVER SRN MN PROGGED TO SHEAR OUT TO THE NE                
DOWNSTREAM OF FALLING HGTS/DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS               
UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHRTWVS THERE. 100KT H3 JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH             
DEEPENING TROF TO THE W PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SE MN IN THE AFTN...               
PLACING FA IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE. THESE EVENTS FAVOR             
SCT MRNG SHRA DIMINISHING/MID CLD DRYING UNDER MID LVL DNVA/H85-5               
QVECTOR DVGC. AS MID LVL CLD STRIPS AWAY...MRNG FOG/ST WL BURN OFF              
AND ALLOW FOR SFC HTG TO RAISE TEMPS TOWARD 70 PER DEEP MIXING ON               
GFS/NAM FCST SDNGS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK MODERATION. BOTH                
GFS/NAM SHOW A LLVL MSTR SURGE IN ADVANCE OF MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC TROF             
ADVECTING INTO THE SCNTRL AS EVIDENCED BY 1000-850MB AXIS OF MIXING             
RATIO OF 8G/KG. NAM FCST SDNGS FOR SFC T/TD 70/53 NR IMT SHOW SB                
CAPE APRCHG 1500 J/KG...BUT GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE MORE STABILITY              
WITH GREATER MID LVL WRMG IN RIGHT EXIT OF UPR JET. BOTH MODELS ALSO            
SHOW COLD FNT APRNTLY ACCENTUATED BY LK SUP COOLING MOVING INTO THE             
WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN...AND THIS BNDRY/LLVL MSTR CNVGC SHOULD SERVE AS            
A FOCUS FOR CNVCTN. EVEN THOUGH NAM FCST SDNGS SHOW DECENT SB                   
INSTABILITY...MODEL PARADOXICALLY DOES NOT GENERATE CNVCTN...                   
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF LO KINX FCST (20-25) IN PRESENCE OF MID LVL             
WRMG/DRYING. ANY TSRA THAT DVLP COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH WBZ                
FCST ARND 7500 FT PER GFS/NAM...BUT MID LVL WRMG SHOULD MITIGATE THE            
SVR THREAT AS WELL AS SHRA COVG.                                                
SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING TROF IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO TAKE              
SHAPE IN THE OH VALLEY THIS EVNG. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FA WL              
WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WHILE COOLER LK SUP MODIFIED AIR/FOG/             
ST ADVECTS INTO THE FA NW TO SE. MODELS APPEAR TO SUFFER CONVECTIVE             
FEEDBACK OVERNGT AS SFC LO DEEPENS RPDLY AND MOVES INTO CNTRL LWR MI            
BY 12Z THU. PER NCEP DISCUSSION...GFS/UKMET SOLN PREFERRED FOR FCST             
DETAILS. LARGE SCALE UPR DVGC/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AND                  
MOISTENING FCST TO ENVELOP THE FA SE-NW TO THE N OF CLOSING H5 LO TO            
THE S. SO EXPECT STEADY RA TO BRK OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THESE                 
DYNAMICS. GFS ALSO SHOWS H925 WINDS INCRSG TO AOA 50KTS IN                      
SHARPENING CYC FLOW TO THE NW OF LO CENTER SUPPORT GOING WITH HI END            
GALE WRNG OVER LK SUP WITH MENTION OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. GFS FCST               
SDNGS INDICATE DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS/STRONG              
CYC NNE FLOW/UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS IN DEFORMATION ZN WL BE                     
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE RA TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO SN OVER THE INTERIOR W             
AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON THU AND INTO THE EVNG BEFORE OCCLUSION             
PROCESS/WEAKENING OF THE SFC LO CAUSE THESE DYNAMICS TO FADE THU                
NGT. COMBINATION OF ADVY LEVEL SN/WIND AND POTENTIAL FOR TREE LIMBS             
TO BREAK OVER POWER LINES JUSTIFIES WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE IN              
THIS AREA EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL WIND/SN CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET.               
FARTHER E...LOOK FOR DRY SLOTTING TO DIMINISH PCPN INTENSITY ON THU             
AFTN. PCPN INTENSITY WL DIMINISH EVERYWHERE ON THU NGT AS LO BEGINS             
TO FILL. LOSS OF STRONGER UVV/ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC COOLING WL DIMINISH            
ACCUMULATING SN AS WELL.                                                        
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX/DLH/YYZ.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
       WINTER STORM WATCH THU AND THU EVNG MIZ002-009-010-084.                  
       HIGH WIND WATCH THU MIZ004>006-012.                                      
       GALE WRNG LK SUP.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
KC(PREV DISC)                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1138 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...CURRENT ANALYSIS/RADAR/VIS/IR SATELLITE SHOW...LOW                    
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.P. WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT                   
STRETCHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT ACROSS              
WI...IL...AND MO.  LAST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED             
OFFSHORE OVER LAKE HURON WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS (CIGS BLO               
1KFT) AND FOG LINGERING OVER NW LOWER.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR              
THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.                        
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS AROUND NORTHERN WI AND THE                 
CENTRAL U.P MOST OF THE DAY.  RUC/NAM BOTH SHOW 850MB DEWPOINT AXIS             
OF 8C AND THETA-E AXIS OF 320K HANGING ON ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF MI             
THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...BEST SB CAPE ALSO IN THIS                   
VICINITY REACHING UP TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE SW CWA (LESS THAN 500                
J/KG ELSEWHERE).  HOWEVER...FEEL THE NAM IS OVERDONE SLIGHTLY WITH              
THE DEWPOINTS (REACHING UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER NE LOWER THIS                 
AFTERNOON) SINCE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THAT AREA AND MIXING CAN             
TAKE PLACE.  MODIFYING SOUNDINGS USING MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S               
AND DEWPTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S SHOW CAPES STILL AROUND 800 OR SO.                 
850-700MB LAPSE RATES LOOK MORE THAN ADEQUATE...7.5 C/KM OVER MOST              
OF NORTHERN LOWER AND APPROACHING 8 C/KM IN POCKETS OVER NE LOWER.              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES WESTWARD PER GRB SOUNDING (850MB                   
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROX 12C WHERE GLR WAS ONLY 3C) AND A                    
COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR...AND MIXING SHOULD ERODE THE LOW CLOUD                
COVER THIS AFTERNOON (AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL AS WELL).  WITH THE             
DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER NW LOWER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE                   
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA...BUT KEPT IT IN ACROSS THE               
REMAINING CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.  NOT TO THRILLED WITH              
THE THUNDER CHANCES WITH A LACK OF FORCING...BUT IF TEMPS CAN REACH             
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S (ALREADY 70 IN MIDLAND)...CHANCES IMPROVE SINCE             
TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS (AROUND 75F).                    
MPC                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 332 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                            
.DISCUSSION...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN GREAT             
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW                
FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO MISSOURI AND THE SRN PLAINS. AREAS OF WEAK             
CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...IMPACTING             
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN. LARGER AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SLIDING NE            
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO FAR NRN                
LAKE HURON AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SO FAR...PRECIP INTENSITY HAS                
BEEN RATHER LIGHT...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN SO FAR              
AND CIGS ARE STILL GENERALLY VFR. NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN                
REPORTED WITHIN THIS CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.                    
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS                
AREA OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN CHANCES OF PRECIP AND             
THUNDER INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A STRENGTHENING              
SRN STREAM LOW MERGES WITH OUR NRN STREAM SYSTEM AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS            
JUST SOUTH OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING.                                     
TODAY...WEAKER NRN STREAM LOW WILL MEANDER OVER WISCONSIN ALL DAY.              
AREA OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY IMPACTING WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL TRY            
TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL                
TEND TO DIMINISH IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT PUSHES              
INTO THE STUBBORN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN SO FIRMLY                     
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. WILL MAINTAIN             
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING...WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER             
AS ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN TOO STABLE. CHANCES OF THUNDER               
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL                      
INSTABILITY (SBCAPES BUILD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON)...AND              
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (FINALLY) AS SURFACE               
DWPTS IN THE LOWER 50S SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE              
CWA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO            
A LACK OF STRONG LIFT AND FOCUS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AS                   
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...PEAKING MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE CWA.           
TONIGHT...DEVELOPING SRN STREAM LOW BEGINS TO TAKE CONTROL AS ENERGY            
FROM THE WEAKER NRN LOW TRANSFERS SOUTHWARD. AT THIS POINT...SINGLE             
LOW CENTER BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS OVER                  
INDIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEEP (GULF) MOISTURE WILL                   
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. MOISTURE CROSS SECTIONS SHOW ENTIRE COLUMN                  
BECOMING SATURATED ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 72 DURING              
THE EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST LIFT VIA DPVA FROM A SHORT            
WAVE CO-LOCATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SRN             
SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT...TARGETING THE HIGHEST POPS               
AND QPF WITHIN THIS AREA. WILL EXTEND THE CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO                
TONIGHT FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY                
LINGERS INTO THE EVENING...AND EVEN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY STICKS            
AROUND OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TOWARD                   
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS              
NORTH OF THE LOW.                                                               
THURSDAY...DEEP/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW REACHES FAR SW LOWER MICHIGAN            
BY THURSDAY EVENING...MAKING LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION            
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE              
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH NAM IS TRYING TO POKE A NARROW SLOT OF DRY AIR INTO            
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. HOW REAL THIS DRY SLOT                
FEATURE IS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. OTHER CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS SYSTEM             
ARE ALSO A BIT ODD (ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)...SUCH AS             
ITS EVOLUTION OF A WEAK NRN STREAM SYSTEM MERGING WITH A STRONGER               
SRN STREAM SYSTEM INTO ONE LARGE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM.                
DEGREE OF DEEPENING IS ALSO UNUSUAL FOR MAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN            
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALL OF THE ABOVE. AM STILL A BIT SCEPTICAL             
ABOUT THE DEGREE OF DEEPENING. THIS SYSTEM IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO            
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IN THE NEXT MODEL RUN...SPECIFICALLY FOR MARINE             
PURPOSES. WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE GALE WARNINGS (MAYBE EVEN STORM             
WARNINGS) FOR THE NEARSHORE AREAS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.              
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING THESE HEADLINES FOR NOW IN ORDER TO SEEK               
GREATER CONFIRMATION IN THE 12Z RUN. NO DOUBT OUR AREA WILL SEE SOME            
GREATLY NEEDED RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM...GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE CONCERNED            
WITH WILD FIRE DANGER. TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...WITH                
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1028 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN NUDGING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
UPWARDS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S...BUT WE ARE QUITE STABLE                
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP TO MIX OUT THIS MORNING. TEMPS ARE BEING            
RETARDED BY HEAVIER CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST...BUT WITH BREAKS                   
ANTICIPATED...SHOULD BE NEAR 75 THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMP THIS            
MORNING IS IN THE LOW 80S...SO UNLESS WE HAVE ADDITIONAL UPPER                  
SUPPORT FROM THE MVC TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE CWFA LATER THIS                  
AFTERNOON PER RUC...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE PROBABLY OPTIMISTIC.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 205 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                    
NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.            
A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SOME CONVERGENCE LATE TODAY IN THE            
WEST AND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROBABLY SQUEEZE OUT                
SOME SHOWERS. GIVEN MOISTURE... DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY...RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SLIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS AS TO WHETHER 100 OR 30            
POPS ARE NEEDED TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE IT LIKELY               
BEFORE DAWN.                                                                    
STILL OF THE OPINION DYNAMICS THURSDAY ARE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT             
RAIN EVENT AND HAVE BOOSTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOWARD ONE HALF INCH.              
THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE WEST TO BE DRY WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR            
RAIN IN THE EAST...AT BEST.                                                     
GENERALLY A MINIMAL COOLING OF A DEGREE OR TWO APPLIED TO CURRENT               
FORECAST TEMPERATURES.                                                          
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS MODELS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME            
WITH STRONG CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.             
RIGHT NOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN            
IN THIS PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHER THAN A TRIM OF SOME               
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN DEFERENCE TO POTENTIAL CLOUDS...NOT MUCH CHANGE            
TO AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET RDU ON WEST...SPREADING              
EAST AFTER 15Z. THROUGH 14Z PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY...EXCEPT IFR                 
VISIBILITY RWI...OTHERWISE VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED. MAINLY CALM                 
WINDS THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MLM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1034 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW ALOND SE                 
ND/NE SD BORDER. 100 KT JET DIVING SOUTHEAST THRU THE CNTRL                     
ROCKIES WILL HELP CONTINUE TO DIG 500 MB LOW INTO THE IA/IL AREA                
ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW IS MOVING               
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THRU FCST AREA. OBS AND RADAR SHOW BACKEDGE OF              
MAIN AREA ENTERING THE FAR NRN AREAS...WITH RUC/NAM SHOWING GOOD                
AGREEMET IN ENDING MAIN PCPN GFK BY 21Z AND FARGO BY 00Z AND                    
EXITING SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AROUND 03Z. USED THIS TIMING IN THE              
GRIDD UPDATE...BUT DID LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE SOUTH AND                     
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA FOR COLLABORATION PURPOSES.                 
TEMPS TODAY WILL NOT MOVE TOO MUCH AND HAVE HAD FALLING TEMPS IN                
MANY AREAS THIS MORNING. BUT ONCE RAIN DOES END TEMPS SHOULD                    
REBOUND A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE HALLOCK AREA. BUT NONETHELESS                
WILL KEEP ALL TEMPS TODAY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 RANGE.                    
BREEZY CONDITIONS ADVERTISED WELL IN GRIDDS AND NOT CHANGED. KMVX               
88D STORM TOTAL PCPN PRODUCT WAS WAY OVERDONE IN PCPN ESTIMATION                
OVER MARSHALL COUNTY MN...WITH COOP REPORTS INDICATING MORE OF A                
1.50 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS WHERAS RADAR SHOWS ISOLD 8 INCHES.                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 405 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION AND WIND.               
WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW                    
PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN W WI...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING                  
THROUGH NW MN ALONG A DLH-ROX LINE.  KMVX RADAR SHOWS A GOOD AREA OF            
RAIN COVERING MUCH OF NW MN AND MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY.               
WHEN LOOKING AT THE MODELS...NAM AND GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR...BUT               
THE GFS IS HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION DEPICTION BETTER...SO             
WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS FOR FORECAST. WITH BAND OF PRECIPITATION                   
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS INVERTED TROF SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH AREA FROM            
N TO S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE 500MB LOW MOVES FROM NW TO SE OF THE            
AREA. THUS...INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY AND TRIED TO TIME THE MOVEMENT            
OF THE RAIN BAND THROUGH. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING             
TODAY UNDER NW-N FLOW...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. MODEL               
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT 30KTS ALOFT THAT COULD POTENTIALLY MIX DOWN.               
HOWEVER...WINDS DONT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO A               
NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL USE WINDY WORDING IN              
FORECAST...BUT NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.                            
SURFACE AND 500MB LOWS MOVE FAR ENOUGH E OF THE AREA BY THU THAT I              
WAS ABLE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THU AND THU NIGHT.                        
THEN...500MB LOW RETROGRADES...AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                  
BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRI INTO SAT. WHEN LOOKING AT REMAINDER OF               
EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY...SO ONLY MINIMAL                
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
720 AM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CLOSING IN ON THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THERE ARE            
STILL MODEL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN NAM AND GFS...WITH THE 06Z GFS                
ARRIVING THIS MORNING LOOKING QUITE DIFFERENT THAN THE 00Z RUN.                 
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN            
TIP OF MINNESOTA DOWN TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  TWO COMPLEXES OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING MUCH LIKE                       
YESTERDAY...THE NORTHERLY COMPLEX (WHICH HAS SHOWN WEAKENING IN THE             
PAST HOUR OR SO) IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THE               
SOUTHERN COMPLEX CONTINUES TO RACE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THE 06Z            
GFS ARRIVED THIS MORNING AND SPUN UP A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT-MAX            
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE (IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN                        
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX). THIS VORT MAX IS ADVERTISED TO RACE                      
NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO FDY BEFORE 00Z...WHICH IS ABOUT 3-6 HRS                  
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND ABOUT 100-150 MILES FURTHER EAST               
THAN PREVIOUS RUN. SINCE THIS FEATURE IS ADVERTISED TO SPEED UP AND             
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE                  
SHOWING THE COMPLEX DYING AND SLOWING DOWN (QUITE THE                           
OPPOSITE)...WILL NOT BE BUYING INTO 06Z GFS AND HAVE DECIDED TO                 
RETAIN TIMING OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...STORMS MAKING IT INTO WESTERN              
TERMINALS AROUND 00Z...CLEVELAND AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POINTS EAST                
CLOSER TO 08Z.  I WOULD ALSO TEND TO DISAGREE WITH THE FORECASTED               
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD.  RECENT 3 HR PRESSURE FALLS             
AND OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE PATH OF LEAST                     
RESISTANCE WOULD BE MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH INDIANA                
INSTEAD OF OHIO...MORE REASON TO DISCARD THE 06Z GFS.                           
BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW             
FOR POP-UP CUMULUS AROUND NOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BY            
MID AFTERNOON.  ONCE STORMS ARRIVE...DO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY            
DIMINISH TO MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST STORMS. DID NOT               
MENTION GUSTS AND WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY OVERNIGHT...LOW                 
LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD KEEP GUSTS TO A MINIMUM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-THU NGT)...                                                   
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS FOR THIS               
EVENT BUT NOTHING IS WRITTEN IN STONE ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS.                
GOING WITH GFS SO USING THAT FOR TIMING. THE MORNING SHOULD BE                  
DRY...CMH AND DAY HAD SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY AM...NOT MUCH ON               
RADAR AND THE RUC ALSO AGREES DRY. LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE AND GFS             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE SEEM BEST IT                
DEFINITELY WON'T BE CLOUDY TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE               
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS                                   
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BACKING DOWN TO CHANCE POPS BASED ON HIGHEST              
MOISTURE STAYING WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH 6 PM AND LIMITING IT TO NW              
OHIO. WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST TONIGHT              
AS LOW MOVES NORTH OF INDIANA AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP THROUGH            
THE AREA. AMS NOT REAL UNSTABLE...PLENTY OF SHEAR...SPC CONVECTIVE              
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 LOOKS GOOD...WITH THE TIME OF DAY THE FRONT IS                
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HOLD THE SEVERE THREAT DOWN. THE HIGHEST QPF              
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...ATTM WILL GO WITH QPF AMOUNTS UNDER               
TWO INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIX HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE WAY              
OVER 2 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SINCE IT HAS BEEN DRY WE SHOULD BE            
ABLE TO HANDLE IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST SLOWLY                   
THURSDAY MORNING THEN INSTABILIY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C. AS SPC SAID SOME               
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR THURSDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND                
INSTABILITY SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THU NIGHT. ATTM SINCE IT              
IS NIGHTTIME WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER BUT THIS HAS TO BE MONITORED.             
MAV MOS FOR TODAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON SOME CLOUDS AND SUN...GENERALLY            
DRY AND UPSTREAM TEMPS ON TUESDAY. BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
ONLY THE ERIE PA AND ASHTABULA LAKESHORE SEEM TO HAVE A CHANCE AT A             
BRIEF LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR OTHER PERIODS WENT CLOSE TO               
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-TUE)...                                                          
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED. IT DOES LOOKS LIKE A THREAT            
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TIMING IS STILL TOUGH...KEPT IT                
CHANCE POPS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW IS STILL              
IN QUESTION.                                                                    
THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                   
EXTENDED FCST IS DIFFCULT IN THE FACT THAT EACH DAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN            
THE MODELS BUT IN REALITY EACH DAY WILL HAVE DISTINCT FEATURES TO               
DEAL WITH THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE WEATHER. WITH THE BIG UPPER              
LOW DEVELOPING AND SEEMINGLY STAYING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL REMAIN ON            
THE MILD AND UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DAYS THAT WE SEE SOME                 
SUNSHINE WILL BE MILD AND CONVECTIVE WHILE THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR              
CLOUDY COOL AND SHOWERY DAYS AS WELL SO MAX TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM              
THE 50S UP TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S OR SO. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE               
AND END UP WITH MOST DAYS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SAME ISSUE AT NIGHT             
WITH LOW TEMPS. IF WE WOULD HAPPEN TO GET AN EVENING THAT CLEARS                
THEN IT COULD DROP INTO THE 30S BUT A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY NIGHT WILL             
STAY CLOSER TO 50. AGAIN...WILL PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE                
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND                 
SHOWERS MIGHT BE FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED                
SHOWERS DEVELOP. NOT SURE ABOUT THREAT OF THUNDER...WILL LEAVE IT               
OUT OF MOST DAYS BUT WITH AIR GETTING COLDER ALOFT COULD BE UNSTABLE            
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO SEE            
SOME PROGRESSION TO THE PATTERN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...LEINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1220 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...                                     
MCS OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE INTO SC THRU THE EVENING.       
DON'T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN SHORT WAVE          
MOVES INTO AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM                
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH               
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROF. LONG RANGE PROGS MOVE              
CLOSED LOW SOUTHEAST INTO TN VALLEY WITH SERIES OF SHORT WAVES                  
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH                  
WEST TO NORTHWEWST FLOW EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW                   
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEDGE HAS FINALLY BROKEN AS LOW CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME SCT. A SHORT             
WAVE IS APPROACHING AND SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z               
THIS EVENING. LAPS SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE CAPPED IN THE LOWER                
LEVELS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET AND RUC FORECAST RAOB FOR CAE SHOWS               
THAT THE CAP SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME             
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES FOR                      
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TONIGHT...               
THERE WILL BE AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE CAUSING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO AROUND. SHORT               
WAVE PUSHES DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY MORNING NEAR 16Z.             
SO THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO              
CIGS NEAR 2 THOUSAND FEET AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS 2-3 MILES IN SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS AND VSBYS BECOME VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING.             
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/02/07                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
415 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
...COOL AND WET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK..                            
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                 
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ABOUT 70 NM S OF MARTHAS VINEYARD LATE THIS            
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WAS DETECTED ON THE WATER               
VAPOR LOOP PICS AND SUNSHINE ATTEMPTED TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD             
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW BRIGHT SPOTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE                  
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH COAST THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER                
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUED TO KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER THE               
REGION.                                                                         
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP IS CURRENTLY                    
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SHORT WAVE                 
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND                     
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS EVENING. THUS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY             
POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF                    
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FOG                  
MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE POSTED                
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED             
TO MONITOR THIS.                                                                
THERE IS A SECOND SHORT WAVE NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WELL                 
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD CROSS INTERIOR NEW             
ENGLAND THURSDAY MORNING. NEITHER THE GFS/NAM OR RUC SEEM TO CAPTURE            
THIS FEATURE WELL. THUS HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY.               
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO VEER FROM NE TO E THURSDAY AFTERNOON.            
MID LEVEL DRY AIR ATTEMPTS TO ERODE AWAY LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AGAIN             
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW           
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS TO PREVAIL. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET TEMPS FOR           
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV TEMPS              
INLAND AND COOLER MET TEMPS ALONG THE COAST.                                    
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND                
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL ESE JET             
AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 850 MILLIBARS AHEAD OF THE NEXT               
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THUS HAVE GONE WITH             
LIKELY POPS LATE THU NIGHT WEST AND CHANCE POPS EAST.                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                        
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED AS WE DEAL WITH                
EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW DRIFTING SE FROM GREAT LAKES...THOUGH HIGHER               
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN MON INTO TUE.              
MUCH OF EXTENDED FORECAST WAS BASED UPON ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MATCHES            
BETTER WITH 12Z/09 ECMWF AS WELL AS 00Z CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS.              
12Z MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNALS FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN              
NORTHEAST FRI INTO SAT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY THIS AXIS OF            
HEAVY RAIN WILL SETUP. ON LARGER SCALE...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW CLOSED               
UPPER LOW MEANDERING OVER OH VALLEY WITH A SHORT WAVE ROTATING N                
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW ATTEMPTS TO FORM              
TO OUR S. MOISTURE CONNECTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT               
ONSHORE FLOW AT LOWEST LEVELS...AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A                  
TROPICAL CONNECTION AT 850 MB WITH ORIGINS OFF SE COAST. THIS ALSO              
HAS LOOK OF A COLD CONVEYOR BELT SETUP AS CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW                
BRINGS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES...WITH                     
FAVORABLE THICKNESSES NEAR 561 DM FOR HEAVY RAIN IN MAY.                        
IF WE TAKE NAM AT FACE VALUE IT PLACES THIS AXIS FARTHER SW...OVER              
NORTHERN NJ AND HUDSON VALLEY...AS OPPOSED TO GFS WHICH IS FARTHER E            
OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH BOTH MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A                    
SECONDARY MAX IN EASTERN MA AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.             
RECENT MODEL PERFORMANCE DOES NOT CLEARLY FAVOR EITHER MODEL...IF               
ANYTHING GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR E WITH ITS MAX PRECIP AREAS.             
A LOOK AT 06Z/10 ENSEMBLES DO SHOW MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...            
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRI INTO             
SAT. WE THINK TRUTH MAY EVENTUALLY PAN OUT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...              
POSSIBLY AS CLOSE AS OUR CT VALLEY ZONES IN MA/CT.                              
MODELS TAKE SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER S SUN INTO MON AS RIDGING TRIES TO             
BUILD DOWN FROM MARITIMES. THIS ALLOWS INITIAL BAND OF HEAVY RAIN TO            
FADE AS IT LIFTS FARTHER NE AWAY FROM PARENT SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH WE                
THINK THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN RAINFALL...CLOUDS SHOULD HANG ON WITH             
CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW. WE KEPT CHANCE POPS SUN AND MON GIVEN                  
UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION THAT BOTH                
DAYS WILL BE DRY.                                                               
NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND              
TUE AND WED...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS UPPER LOW FINALLY             
TRIES TO EJECT OUT OF EASTERN STATES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT             
AND THURSDAY IN RAIN...DRIZZLE AND FOG PATCHES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN             
VSBYS/CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS EXPECTED               
BEYOND 15Z.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NE SWELL CONTINUES               
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND CCOD BAY AND ACK SOUND TONIGHT. SWELL               
SHOULD DIMINISH BRIEFLY THU BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT AND            
FRI.                                                                            
IN LONGER TERM...MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT            
ON OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF E MA COAST WHERE TIGHTER GRADIENT              
SHOULD BE PRESENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER SAT INTO SUN AS SYSTEM             
IS SUPPRESSED FARTHER S...BUT SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME COMING DOWN             
DUE TO CONTINUED E SWELL COMPONENT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON AVERAGE FRI INTO               
SAT WITH AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WE CAN CERTAINLY HANDLE            
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IN OUR RIVERS AND STREAMS...SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE            
ANY HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS AT THIS TIME. BUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN              
IS THERE IN FRI TO SAT TIMEFRAME. IN FACT...IF EVERYTHING COMES                 
TOGETHER AS OUTLINED ABOVE...WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 5 DAY             
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT                    
WEEK...WHERE IT SETS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT AGAIN OUR CT VALLEY              
ZONES IN MA/CT STAND BEST CHANCE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231-232 UNTIL 11 PM WEDNESDAY.             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ250-254-255 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS                                                            
LONG TERM...JWD                                                                 
AVIATION...STRAUSS                                                              
MARINE...JWD/STRAUSS                                                            
HYDROLOGY...JWD                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
222 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
ISSUES TONIGHT CONCERN TIMING ENDING OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND THEN              
CLEARING POTENTIAL AND LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT. 18Z SFC MAP SHOWS SFC               
LOW SOUTH OF DULUTH...REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH WATER                  
VAPOR SHOWING 500 MB LOW DEEPENING SLOWLY AND MOVING SOUTHEAST                  
INTO SRN MN. AS 500 MB LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTHEAST               
TONIGHT...RAIN ON NORTH SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                 
SOUTHWARD WITH RAIN ENDING OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS BY 00Z AND                 
OVER THE SOUTH BEFORE 06Z. 18Z RUC AND 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A                
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS THIS EVENING WITH NAM TOO FAST WITH CLEARING              
TREND.                                                                          
RUC/GFS SHOWS MAIN CLEARING DROPPING TOWARD DVL REGION TOWARD 00Z               
WITH SLOW ADVANCE SOUTHWARD CLEARING OVERNIGHT REACHING WCNTRL MN               
AROUND 12Z. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT HINGE ON CLEARING WITH LOWS DOWN TO               
NEAR 32F IN NE ND WITH AROUND 40 IN WCNTRL MN. ONE CAVEAT WITH                  
CLEARING TREND IN THE FORECAST IS AREA OF CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH                 
BEHIND VORT SWINGING AROUND HUDSON BAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO.              
UKMET SHOWS THESE CLOUDS THE BEST AND DOES SHOW MAJORITY OF THESE               
CLOUDS BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE SOUTH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE                  
WEST OF THE UPPER LOW.                                                          
AS UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW MOVE TOWARD MICHIGAN THU-THU NIGHT...VERY              
DRY AIR INVADES THE FCST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WRN ND                 
AND LOW TO OUR EAST WILL PUT FCST AREA IN A BREEZY NORTH WIND                   
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.                                 
FOR FRI AFTN AND FRI NIGHT...PREFER GFS HANDLING AS A VORT ROTATES              
NORTH AND THEN WEST AROUND UPPER LOW OVER GREAT LAKES SENDING BAND              
OF CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS WESTWARD THRU NW MN FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY              
REACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. THE CLOUDS AND SHOW                    
THREAT WILL END SATURDAY MORNING. PREV FCST HAD THIS HANDLED WELL               
SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.                                                    
.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT-WED... PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BLOCKED                
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL               
KEEP OUR REGION IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN FOR THE MOST                  
PART...AND TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. THE WARMEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY                
AND MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN...WITH A SLIGHT                  
COOLING TREND THEREAFTER. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP               
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE              
REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN NW FLOW...AND EVENT STILL A WEEK               
OUT...WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT WATCH THIS FEATURE WITH FUTURE                 
FORECASTS.                                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOWER MVFR CIGS AT GFK/FAR WILL HANG ON TIL CLEARING MOVES IN                   
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS CLEARING LOOKS TO ARRIVE               
AT GFK 03-06Z AND FARGO AND BEMIDJI AROUND 09Z.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/DK                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
135 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                           
TOUGH AVIATION FCST WITH AN UNSEASONABLE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES INTO             
THE REGION WHILE DEEPENING. ALTHOUGH THE MDLS INSIST ON THE LOW                 
DEEPENING TO 988 MB OVR NW OH THU...THEY DO IT MUCH SLOWER NOW WHICH            
IS PROBABLY REASONABLE GIVEN THE DEEP UPPER LOW THAT WL BE ACROSS               
THE AREA OPPOSED TO DEEPENING THE LOW FAST WHICH EARLIER RUNS DID               
PROBABLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.                                   
AN AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SRN OH AND WILL MOVE N THIS AFTN              
AND AFFECT THE WRN TERMINALS BY EVENING. THE LOW MOVES N TONIGHT AND            
BEGINS TO DEEPEN. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL TONIGHT...THE             
SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WHICH SHOULD HELP CAUSE SOME THUNDER AT TOL             
AND FDY AFT 02Z. ELSEWERE...HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDER BUT INCLUDED CB AS            
THE SELY FLOW WL LIKELY KEEP IT TOO STABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDER.             
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE THUNDER...BUT                  
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION OF THE TAFS.                        
THE OTHER PROBLEM WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AS THE LOW DEEPENS. SELY             
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST                
WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE OVER THE LAKESHORE DUE TO DOWNSLOPE.                    
EVENTUALLY ALL SITES WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS.                                   
CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR WITH THE PCPN...FIRST AT TOL AND LAST AT               
ERI. SELY FLOW MAY KEEP PCPN OUT OF YNG AND ERI UNTIL WELL AFTER 06Z.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-THU NGT)...                                                   
THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS FOR THIS               
EVENT BUT NOTHING IS WRITTEN IN STONE ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS.                
GOING WITH GFS SO USING THAT FOR TIMING. THE MORNING SHOULD BE                  
DRY...CMH AND DAY HAD SPRINKLES DURING THE EARLY AM...NOT MUCH ON               
RADAR AND THE RUC ALSO AGREES DRY. LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE AND GFS             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE SEEM BEST IT                
DEFINITELY WON'T BE CLOUDY TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE               
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN OHIO THIS                                   
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BACKING DOWN TO CHANCE POPS BASED ON HIGHEST              
MOISTURE STAYING WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH 6 PM AND LIMITING IT TO NW              
OHIO. WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST TONIGHT              
AS LOW MOVES NORTH OF INDIANA AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP THROUGH            
THE AREA. AMS NOT REAL UNSTABLE...PLENTY OF SHEAR...SPC CONVECTIVE              
OUTLOOK FOR DAY 1 LOOKS GOOD...WITH THE TIME OF DAY THE FRONT IS                
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HOLD THE SEVERE THREAT DOWN. THE HIGHEST QPF              
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...ATTM WILL GO WITH QPF AMOUNTS UNDER               
TWO INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SIX HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE WAY              
OVER 2 INCHES AT MOST LOCATIONS...SINCE IT HAS BEEN DRY WE SHOULD BE            
ABLE TO HANDLE IT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST SLOWLY                   
THURSDAY MORNING THEN INSTABILIY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8C. AS SPC SAID SOME               
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR THURSDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE AND                
INSTABILITY SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THU NIGHT. ATTM SINCE IT              
IS NIGHTTIME WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER BUT THIS HAS TO BE MONITORED.             
MAV MOS FOR TODAY LOOK GOOD BASED ON SOME CLOUDS AND SUN...GENERALLY            
DRY AND UPSTREAM TEMPS ON TUESDAY. BASED ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT               
ONLY THE ERIE PA AND ASHTABULA LAKESHORE SEEM TO HAVE A CHANCE AT A             
BRIEF LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR OTHER PERIODS WENT CLOSE TO               
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-TUE)...                                                          
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EXTENDED. IT DOES LOOKS LIKE A THREAT            
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TIMING IS STILL TOUGH...KEPT IT                
CHANCE POPS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW IS STILL              
IN QUESTION.                                                                    
THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                   
EXTENDED FCST IS DIFFCULT IN THE FACT THAT EACH DAY LOOKS SIMILAR IN            
THE MODELS BUT IN REALITY EACH DAY WILL HAVE DISTINCT FEATURES TO               
DEAL WITH THAT WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE WEATHER. WITH THE BIG UPPER              
LOW DEVELOPING AND SEEMINGLY STAYING TO OUR WEST...WE WILL REMAIN ON            
THE MILD AND UNSTABLE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DAYS THAT WE SEE SOME                 
SUNSHINE WILL BE MILD AND CONVECTIVE WHILE THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR              
CLOUDY COOL AND SHOWERY DAYS AS WELL SO MAX TEMPS COULD RANGE FROM              
THE 50S UP TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S OR SO. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE               
AND END UP WITH MOST DAYS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SAME ISSUE AT NIGHT             
WITH LOW TEMPS. IF WE WOULD HAPPEN TO GET AN EVENING THAT CLEARS                
THEN IT COULD DROP INTO THE 30S BUT A CLOUDY AND SHOWERY NIGHT WILL             
STAY CLOSER TO 50. AGAIN...WILL PRETTY MUCH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE                
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND                 
SHOWERS MIGHT BE FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED                
SHOWERS DEVELOP. NOT SURE ABOUT THREAT OF THUNDER...WILL LEAVE IT               
OUT OF MOST DAYS BUT WITH AIR GETTING COLDER ALOFT COULD BE UNSTABLE            
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO SEE            
SOME PROGRESSION TO THE PATTERN.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
345 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A BIT MORE QUIET TODAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. STEADY STRATUS LAYER              
SITTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL               
HELP PREVENT CONVECTION TODAY. SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS COLD AIR ADVECTION           
AND A FAIRLY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE CLOUD DECK. PLUS DRY AIR                  
ADVECTION IS KEEPING SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.               
NORTHWEST FLOW IS SETTING UP ALOFT BUT RUC AND WV IMAGERY DO NOT SHOW           
ANY SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS           
SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING AROUND 00Z AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE            
PANHANDLES. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH              
TOMORROW WHEN THE HIGH FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BETWEEN           
18Z AND 00Z. WITH THE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW CONTINUING THURSDAY AND                
NO SHORT WAVES EVIDENT IN THE MODELS...THINKING THAT THE PANHANDLES             
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN TOMORROW. GFS DOES SHOW A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE              
MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY             
DRY ON FRIDAY SO LEFT PRECIP OUT ON FRIDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...BUFKIT            
SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS SHOW VERY LIMITED AND ISOLATED                
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SO THINKING             
ANY STORM INITIATION THROUGH DAY 7 WILL NEED TO BE TOPOGRAPHICALLY              
GENERATED. BUT I DIGRESS...DECIDED TO GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE           
FOR TEMPS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND N TO           
NW FLOW ALOFT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN US DOES CONTINUE           
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT                
LAKES DEEPENS AND PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN US. THE AMPLIFICATION           
PATTERN PLACES THE PANHANDLES IN A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SITUATION...BUT    
STILL FEEL THAT SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW TO N FLOW ALOFT         
WILL PROVIDE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.                            
THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THOSE SHORT WAVES HIT THE PANHANDLES. GFS             
SHOWS SOME ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY. THIS                
SEEMS TO CORRESPOND WELL WITH THE SLIGHT INSTABILITY INCREASE AND               
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. PLUS EASTERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPS SO THERE MAY           
BE NEED TO INCREASE POPS FROM THE CURRENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT RANGE INTO           
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. APPEARS BETTER SHOT FOR                
PRECIP WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY THROUGH             
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DO START TO INDICATE MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THIS           
TIME FRAME AND THE LL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT               
STORMS. BLANKETED 20 POPS IN THE 18Z TO 06Z HOURS ON DAYS 5 THROUGH             
7...AND DROPPED OFF POPS IN THE MORNING TIME FRAME. ALSO...CONTINUED            
TO GO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7 AS WELL DUE           
TO THE GENERAL NORTHERLY OR EASTERLY SFC FLOW AND NORTHERLY FLOW                
ALOFT.                                                                          
BROST                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                42  71  48  84 /   0   0   0   0                     
BEAVER OK                  39  71  44  85 /   0   0   0   0                     
BOISE CITY OK              37  69  45  82 /   0   0   0   0                     
BORGER TX                  45  74  54  86 /   0   0   0   0                     
BOYS RANCH TX              42  74  48  88 /   0   0   0   0                     
CANYON TX                  41  73  45  86 /   0   0   0   0                     
CLARENDON TX               44  74  49  85 /   0   0   0   0                     
DALHART TX                 39  70  45  84 /   0   0   0   0                     
GUYMON OK                  39  73  44  86 /   0   0   0   0                     
HEREFORD TX                41  73  46  87 /   0   0   0   0                     
LIPSCOMB TX                41  72  46  83 /   0   0   0   0                     
PAMPA TX                   45  71  53  83 /   0   0   0   0                     
SHAMROCK TX                44  74  49  86 /   0   0   0   0                     
WELLINGTON TX              45  75  50  88 /   0   0   0   0                     
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
14/08                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx