####018003792####
FXUS66 KLOX 101716
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
917 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...SUNNY SKIES COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA 
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GUSTY 
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES HAD 
DIMINISHED BY MID MORNING SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED...ALTHO 
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN 
NW L.A. COUNTY THRU NOON THEN DIMINISH THERE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 
HI CLOUDS MOVING INTO SLO/SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE 
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS THRU TODAY. WITH THE COOL 
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

...REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES 
THE CENTRAL COAST INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO 
THE AREA AROUND DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. IT IS A WEAK FRONT 
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF 
POINT CONCEPTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER 
AMOUNTS ONLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA AS ANOTHER SHOT 
OF COLD AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH TOWARDS DAWN WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS 
THE SOUTH SLOPES.

THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS DRY NW 
FLOW SETS UP BEHIND WEDNESDAYS FRONT. THE ONLY CLOUD POSSIBILITY 
WILL BE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES WHERE THERE WILL ALSO 
BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FAIRLY LOW SNOW LEVEL. STILL 
WITH 543 THICKNESSES OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...THE LONG TERM IS VERY INTERESTING AND 
LOOKS TO BE VERY WET.

EC AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON A SERIES OF STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE 
EXTENDED PERIOD AND BEYOND. AS WITH A FAST MOVING STORMY FLOW 
PATTERN SUCH AS THIS THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE EXACTLY ON TIMING OR 
INTENSITY. INDEED THERE ARE DIFFERENCES FROM MDL RUN TO MDL RUN. SO 
AN EXACT FORECAST IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT THAT DOES NOT TAKE ANYTHING 
AWAY FROM THE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THESE 4 OR 5 DAYS.

AS IT STANDS NOW A WEAK TO MODERATE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG TO A VERY STRONG STORM WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAYS FORECAST IS 
SOMEWHAT IFFY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS. AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR YET ANOTHER MODERATE TO STRONG 
STORM NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

CHANCE FORECAST WORDING IS IN THE FORECAST ONLY BECAUSE IT IS 
IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN WHAT 12 HOUR PERIODS THE RAIN WILL FOLLOW. 
THERE IS A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORECAST WILL BE SHARPENED AS THE STORMS COME 
INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

...10/1135Z...

GOOD FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY SOME IFR CONDS THROUGH THE TEJON 
PASS. A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND 
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


FOR KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

FOR KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME NORTH WINDS AND/OR LGT 
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES


####018005717####
FXUS64 KSJT 101717 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1117 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT WINDS ARE INCREASING ALREADY THIS MORNING
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO 20G30KTS...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN TO 71 DEGREES AT SJT. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREABASED AT LATEST NAM12
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...WILL TREND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT/S WINDS CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION THAN GFS40 DATA...AS WEST WINDS AT KELP ARE CURRENTLY
27G38 WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE SUSTAINED 25KTS FROM THE NAM12 OUTPUT
TONIGHT FROM 00Z TO 06Z. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE DECIDED
TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT GEOGRAPHICALLY TO THE EAST AND
THROUGH 06Z AS WELL. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL ALSO BE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS A RESULT OF STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED IN
KIMBLE AND MENARD COUNTIES. 

WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS...STILL SEE A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP...SO WILL NOT HAVE TO MAKE ANY LARGE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND FORECASTS INHERITED IN THE CURRENT SET OF
TAFS. WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KJCT AND
KBBD THIS AFTERNOON BUT AS HEATING AND MIXING CONTINUES INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL ONLY
LEAVE THE CB GROUPS IN AT THIS TIME AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF KBBD AND KJCT. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY LOW
CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TONIGHT. 

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009/

SHORT TERM...
STILL LOOKING LIKE AN EARLY SPRING SET UP FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AS INTENSE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE SOUTHER ROCKIES
ACROSS TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY USUALLY A QUESTION...BUT WITH 60
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND SET TO MOVE
INTO AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...APPEARS THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRYLINE TO SURGE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SHEAR...WILL NOT ARGUE
WITH THE SPC FORECAST. 

LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDE A TEXTBOOK
FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.
QUESTION IS HOW FAR INTO THE EVENING DO THE STRONG WINDS PERSIST.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE THE INVERSION BECOMES ESTABLISHED...BUT
THAT MAY TAKE AWHILE. WILL CONTINUE THE WINDS WELL INTO THE EVENING.

UPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING... AND MAY
WELL PRODUCE SOME MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND VIRGA AS IT MOVES ACROSS.
OR AS WE WELL KNOW IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE IT RAIN MUD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY THIS
EVENING...AS DIRT AND DUST PICKED UP FARTHER WEST COMBINES WITH
WRAP AROUND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...
SPENT MOST OF THE FORECAST DEALING WITH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF A SERIES OF WAVES PASSING FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS STILL LOOKS GOOD. MOST OF THESE WILL PASS JUST TO
THE NORTH...AND DRY SLOT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BUT THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHERS.
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS
OF THE AREA FOR IT.

FIRE WEATHER...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE. 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS PACIFIC FRONT WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVES
IN...FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RED FLAG WARNING BEGINS AT 1 PM...
HOWEVER LOOK THE MOST INTENSE WINDS TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THIS
EVENING AS A 60 TO 65 MPH 700/850 MB WIND MAX MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION...AND SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS THOSE WINDS TO PARTIALLY MIX TO
THE SURFACE. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RISES TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AT
9 PM...WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE AND STAY UP MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO
THERE WILL BE LIMITED RH RECOVERY. WINDS WILL DECREASE MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER SIDE SPC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 72  43  65  41  72 /  20  20   0   0   0 
SAN ANGELO 	 74  38  67  37  73 /  20  10   0   0   0 
JUNCTION 	 77  38  71  33  74 /  20  10   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: COKE...CONCHO...CROCKETT...FISHER...IRION...JONES...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...TOM 
GREEN.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ZONES: COKE...CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...
NOLAN...RUNNELS...SCHLEICHER...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...
THROCKMORTON...TOM GREEN.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR 
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...
MENARD...SAN SABA.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS 
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: KIMBLE...MENARD.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT 
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALLAHAN...COLEMAN...CONCHO...
SHACKELFORD.

&&

$$

99/99/99




####018003762####
FXUS66 KLOX 101716
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
917 AM PST TUE FEB 10 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...SUNNY SKIES COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA 
THIS MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE GUSTY 
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES HAD 
DIMINISHED BY MID MORNING SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED...ALTHO 
LOCAL GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH WILL LINGER ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN 
NW L.A. COUNTY THRU NOON THEN DIMINISH THERE. THERE SHOULD BE SOME 
HI CLOUDS MOVING INTO SLO/SBA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE 
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS THRU TODAY. WITH THE COOL 
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...AFTERNOON HI TEMPS ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.

...REMAINDER FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN OVERNIGHT AND A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES 
THE CENTRAL COAST INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO 
THE AREA AROUND DAWN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. IT IS A WEAK FRONT 
AND THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF 
POINT CONCEPTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT WITH HIGHER 
AMOUNTS ONLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. 
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA AS ANOTHER SHOT 
OF COLD AIR SPILLS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH TOWARDS DAWN WITH ONLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS 
THE SOUTH SLOPES.

THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY...MAYBE EVEN MOSTLY SUNNY AS DRY NW 
FLOW SETS UP BEHIND WEDNESDAYS FRONT. THE ONLY CLOUD POSSIBILITY 
WILL BE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES WHERE THERE WILL ALSO 
BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FAIRLY LOW SNOW LEVEL. STILL 
WITH 543 THICKNESSES OVERHEAD TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-MON)...THE LONG TERM IS VERY INTERESTING AND 
LOOKS TO BE VERY WET.

EC AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON A SERIES OF STORMS DURING THE ENTIRE 
EXTENDED PERIOD AND BEYOND. AS WITH A FAST MOVING STORMY FLOW 
PATTERN SUCH AS THIS THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE EXACTLY ON TIMING OR 
INTENSITY. INDEED THERE ARE DIFFERENCES FROM MDL RUN TO MDL RUN. SO 
AN EXACT FORECAST IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT THAT DOES NOT TAKE ANYTHING 
AWAY FROM THE W 5 DAYS.

AS IT STANDS NOW A WEAK TO MODERATE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG TO A VERY STRONG STORM WILL MOVE 
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MONDAYS FORECAST IS 
SOMEWHAT IFFY BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS. AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR YET ANOTHER MODERATE TO STRONG 
STORM NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

CHANCE FORECAST WORDING IS IN THE FORECAST ONLY BECAUSE IT IS 
IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN WHAT 12 HOUR PERIODS THE RAIN WILL FOLLOW. 
THERE IS A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORECAST WILL BE SHARPENED AS THE STORMS COME 
INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

...10/1135Z...

GOOD FLYING WEATHER TODAY WITH ONLY SOME IFR CONDS THROUGH THE TEJON 
PASS. A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL COAST LATE TONIGHT AND 
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.


FOR KLAX...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

FOR KBUR...VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOME NORTH WINDS AND/OR LGT 
TURBULENCE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SIRARD/RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES