Notes for Meso-conference Poster


Poster size: AMS allows up to 4' by 8'


                     Title

  Intro

  Denver Cyclone
   
  LGM Anticyclone


    MODELS
 
   characteristics
   model terrain image for each 

  Show examples

  For all compare to sfc stations DEN, BJC and APA where TAFS are made
     Could also be added later I suspect

  -Could ask questions (table?) like
       this table would take time, could tape it on later in a blank area!                           
                       Den cyclone       CYS cyclone          Pub cyclone
Run  Date  time        Fcst | Obs          Fcst | Obs         Fcst | Obs    
 18z 5 June  3h             |                   |                  |  
                            |                   |                  |
                            |

     categories would be 
         for DEN Cyclone   W   M   S    CZ (- or + as needed)     or N for none

         for LGM Anti      W   M   S   or N




Cases

LGM Anticyclone


 1) 6 Nov 2000
     MM5 and Mesoeta saved, no RUC
      -could compare 3 and 6 h fcsts fm 18z runs
      -good turning to se at BJC; neither captured this but both have general turning

 2) 15 Nov 2000
     ONLY MM5hot saved; 2 runs, 12z and 18z
      -good anticyclone with nice verification on top of 18z initial fcst
       -good turning on MM5hot fcst, but details don't all agree (wind too light at 6 h fcst
        fm 12z run for AKO, for example, but good turning at BJC.
        -5h fcst valid 23z: tremendous (classic) turning PREDICTED by the model, obs show tho 
         that wlys had broken through BJC to DEN area.  
         -Even 12h fcst valid 00z had very nice turning predicted
      **decent example

 3) 17 Nov 2000
     Saved runs from MM5hot and Mesoeta initialized at 18z
      -General: Perhaps not quite a classic LGM Anti with a big, broad turning, as AKO has more 
        NNE wind, but slowing turning near Front Range like typical case.  Both models seem to 
        capture flow decently.
     **probably have better cases to show

 4) 30 Apr 2001
     Have 18z runs from all 3 models for 0-6h fcsts.
      -impressive turning of W to WNW general flow to 09005 GXY and FNL and working twds DEN area
        by 21z.  
        -MM5 captures much better than RUC and Mesoeta for 3h fcst; tho breaks down flow too soon
          (by 23z) out east fm prevailing wlys.   
        -Fair to say other models never really predict this one, tho RUC indicates turning more 
         towards Palmer Divide.
      **since this is the only complete case, should show.

 +++perhaps show some of case 2, more of case 4 for LGM Anti   

DEN Cyclone

 1) 24 Mar 2001
     -Have all 3 models, but longer range fcsts for NEXT DAY from 18z runs
     **Only case I think with such long range fcsts fm all the models, as during special period of
       RUC runs.  Showed this case for paper, recommend showing again, perhaps after shorter term 
       forecast examples.
      ++++LONGER RANGE FCST EXAMPLE++++ ALSO, a very nice wrapped up Den Cyclone

 2) 17-18 April 2001
     Have some longer range stuff from only mesoeta and MM5hot, but main stuff is good collection 
      from all 3 models from 12z run.
      -more of a DCVZ and not a circulation
       -MM5hot has the most turning, RUC the least but slowing and some turning, Mesoeta mainly 
        slowing of sly flow.   
       -by 21z and beyond BJC comes around to nly so get an S- type sitn, with MM5hot prob best.
      +++Example of a weaker case+++

 3) 5 June 2001
     Fairly complete set of 2 model runs (12 & 18z) from all 3 models.  PLUS, appears this goes 
      over to a LGM anticyclone on/after 12z/6 June, with some longer range (18-24h) fcsts saved.
       -12z runs: 
         -MM5hot: No Den Cyclone, and doesn't really develop much of a DCVZ either, mainly sely flow
           tho by 03z do get a CYS and Den cyclone (not real strong, but there).
           Appears that flow is too nely in sern CO, even at 21z, whereas mesoeta more ESE there.
         -Mesoeta: 9h has a Den Cyclone; 15h valid 03z/6 J has nice Den Cyclone
          DID get an S1 or S2 Den Cyclone by 21z in obs.  ALTHOUGH, by 22z and beyond looks mainly
           sely.  Unfortunately don't seem to have any obs saved from BJC after 21z!!!!!!!!
         -RUC has good Den Cyclone at 21z, then weaker, but broad turning to nely flow, by 00z/6 J.
       -18z runs: 
         -MM5hot: nothing til DCVZ at 23z, then weak Den cyclone by 00z/6 J. 
                 Trouble with the LGM Anti part....MM5hot 18z run dvlps LGM Anti by 15z/6th, but 
                  obs show winds still SW attm at AKO, whereas fcst was for NW, so prob NOT a good
                  one to verify.
         -Mesoeta: has good DCVZ thru 00z, whereas DEN area goes all sely by then.
         -RUC: Appears to have too good of a Den Cyclone compared to reality.
    +++SUMMARY: RUC likes this case for a Den Cyclone for some reason, more so than reality.  
        MM5hot prob not enough, Mesoeta may be the best, or slightly overdone.

 4) 7 June 2001
     Good set of 12z runs with verification
        Great PUB cyclone case, with excellent vis imagery and obs.
         -best image might be 2001_06_07_12zmm5hot_4hsfcwindwvis_forpubcyclone_v16z7jun.gif, the
           16z image with MM5hot fcst on it.  NOTE that later it is more of a good CZ in sern CO,
           and 18z image shows good tstm dvlpmnt along the CZ.
         Slow to dvlp DEN cyclone, get first cyclone in sern CO as sly flow established there first.
          -MM5hot does well with Pub area, Mesoeta not so good, RUC strong CZ (but 13z run), with
           the time for comparison the 6h fcst valid 18z (19z for RUC).
        +++Summary: Good example of a Pub cyclone event+++
          for poster 
              15z MM5hot state scale      edit
               16z vis w/mm5hot over PUB  edit
               17z same                   edit <<<<<<crop 17z
               18z same                   edit  
              19z mm5hot state scale w/nowrad  edit
               RUC 3 and 6h fm 13z
            mesoeta:
                 3h fm 12z  edit
                 6h fm 12z  OK as is



 5) 8 June 2001
     Limited stuff, 3 models from 18z.
      Good Den Cyclone, also (at least til about 21z) OK CYS cyclone, not much of a PUB one.
       21z: looks like Mesoeta and then RUC better resolve Den Cyclone, with MM5hot mainly SE.
       00z: MM5 has a CZ; RUC seems to best show weak Den Cyclone; actually missing 6h mesoeta.
         +++Summary: not much to show with this case+++

 6) 26 June 2001
     18z runs, but only from MM5hot and Mesoeta, NOT RUC.
      -Not a real strong case, at 21z a weakish Den Cyclone, sely PUB and CYS.
        -MM5hot just sely; mesoeta has some turning, but not enough.
       -not much of a cyclone at 00z either.  By then complicated by convection near BJC.
      **of interest is how MM5hot developed a strong PUB cyclone overnight, for example by 12z, 
         while mesoeta does the same but over DEN area. will need to check if we actually got one,
         only have the obs, not plots, saved.

 7) 5 July 2001 
     Some missing RUC stuff, otherwise 2 run times (12 and 18z) with verification.
      Well wrapped-up Den Cyclone, with +++GREAT radar and satellite and obs for display+++
       Sly flow dvlps over area by 15z, with weak CYS circ by then, not much else.  S- Den cyc
        by 16z, by 18z decent Den, weaker CYS, and CZ near PUB already in place.  By 00z still great
        DEN cyclone, CYS seems overwhelmed by sly flow, PUB has bcm nely so maybe something there.
      -12z runs: RUC seems to have good turning DEN area thru 00z;  Mesoeta: looks real good with Den
                  cyclone at 18z, then tho washes it out by 00z; MM5hot: decent turning for CYS one,
                  but just slys over DEN, wipes out CYS circ by 21z, by 00z all sely everywhere.
      -18z runs: MM5hot too sely, doesn't seem to dvlp any cyclones, tho started with a good Den Cy.
                 Mesoeta at 21z has only slight turning Douglas cty; starts OK at 18z; nothing 
                  fcst at 00z, tho in fact Den Cyclone was there.
       ++++Good case because of nice radar and satellite verification, which also shows tstm dvlpmnt
           over CZ with Den Cyclone.
      
            15z  MM5hot closeup    edit
                 Mesoeta closeup   edit
                 
            18z  MM5hot closeup    edit
                 MM5hot state      edit
                 mesoeta closeup   edit
                 mesoeta big       edit
                 RUC-6h fm 19z     edit
              verif? 18z vel


            21z  RUC-9h fm 12z run  edit
                 Mesoeta closeup   edit
                 MM5hot closeup    edit
              verif: radar ref
                           vel
                           satellite

            23z  visible satellite