FXUS61 KALY 202252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
550 PM EST MON JAN 20 2003

UPDATED WORKZONES OUT.

.DISC...WILL SEND ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE AS THE LAKE BANDS HAVE 
FINALLY MOVED OUT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SO WE WILL CANCEL THE LAKE 
EFFECT WARNING FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WE STILL HAVE BLOWING SNOW BIG 
TIME OUT THERE BUT WILL HANDLE THAT LOCALLY. THE BAND HAS BECOME 
SINGULAR AGAIN AND HAS SHIFTED INTO THE CATSKILLS. WE THINK IT WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND NOT GIVE ANYONE SPOT THERE ENOUGH FOR A 
HEADLINE SITUATION...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT HAS TO CLOSELY MONSTER 
THAT SITUATION. WE STILL EXPECT THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO LOWER 
AND FINALLY BREAK UP THE BAND. NO OTHER CHANGES TO ANY AREAS OR 
LATER PERIODS. 

.HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...PLEASE REFER TO PREVIOUS AREA FORECAST 
DISCUSSION. (AFD)

.ALY...WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR                           
       NYZ038>043-048>054-058>061-064>066.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR VTZ014-015.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR MAZ001.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR CTZ001.

HWJIV
_____________________________________________________________________
**************PREVIOUS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION*****************  

WORKZONES OUT. ZONES OUT BY 400 PM.

.DISC...ACCORDING TO NYSPIN REPORTS THE MOHAWK VALLEY (ESPECIALLY 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND POINTS WEST) ARE GETTING POUNDED BY 
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND EXTENSIVE BLOWING AS WELL AS DRIFTING SNOW. 
MANY ROADS ARE SHUT DOWN AS FAR EAST AS AMSTERDAM! CURRENTLY THE 
LAKE PLUME EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO VERMONT...BUT THUS FAR...HAS 
LITERALLY STOPPED AT THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND WAS SOMEHOW PUSHED BACK 
NORTHWARD BACK OVER SARATOGA COUNTY. SCATTERED LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS 
ARE FOUND OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE PROBLEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH 
SNOW HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN IN THE MOHAWK...SINCE THERE IS SOME MUCH OF 
IT ON THE GROUND AND IT IS BLOWING SO MUCH.

SINCE THE BAND IS STILL IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...WE WILL KEEP THE 
CURRENT WARNINGS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND KEEP THE 
ACCUMULATIONS AS ADVERTISED. WILL HIT THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN OF VERMONT 
AND THE BERKSHIRES A LITTLE HARDER THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW 
SHOWERS AS WELL. 

THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO LOWER TO WELL BELOW 5KFT 
LATER TONIGHT...AND HOPEFULLY WILL PUT THE KABASH ON THE LAKE GUNS 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL MIGHT BE SOME FLURRIES...BUT THAT 
SHOULD BE IT.

ALSO...HAD TO POLISH OFF THE OLD (ACTUALLY NEW WIND 
CHART) AND HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR MOST OF 
OUR CWA...EXCEPT A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

THE TRANSCONTINENTAL SIBERIAN EXPRESS IS IN TOWN AND IT WILL STAY 
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHAT WILL MAKE IT WORSE THAN THIS WEEKEND/S 
DEEP BLAST...IS THE WIND. DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES WILL SET UP ANCHOR...WHILE LARGE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THEN...A POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL 
SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND BOMB WELL OFF THE COAST...REINFORCING THE 
COLD AIR AND WIND FOR THU AND FRI. LATER WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE 
NEEDED. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SHOULD NOT GET US...THE UPPER 
FEATURE MIGHT (THOUGH IT MIGHT BE MOISTURE STARVED). SO...WILL KEEP 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY. 

BY THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY CREST OVER THE REGION. 
BY THAT TIME...IT SHOULD HAVE MODERATED SOME AND THE WIND WILL 
FINALLY SLACKEN. BY SUNDAY...WE FINALLY MIGHT SEE SOME WAA AS THE 
HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...WHICH COULD GIVE US A LITTLE SNOW...BUT 
MORE IMPORTANTLY A BREAK IN THE DEEP FREEZE. THE STRONG +PNA ACTION 
IS FORECAST TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT (BUT NOT DISAPPEAR)  
TEMPERATURES MIGHT REACH SEASONABLE LEVELS AND POSSIBLY THE FREEZING 
MARK...BY NEXT MONDAY.    

WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV NOS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT A BLEND OF THEM ON 
WEDNESDAY.  

.HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...KEEPING AN ICE ON THE ICE JAM AT PRATTSVILLE. 
NO REAL CHANGE. OTHERWISE NO PROBLEMS AS EVERYTHING REMAINS FROZEN 
SOLID AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE 
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 

.ALY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>40
       WIND WARNING TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR                           
       NYZ038>043-048>054-058>061-064>066.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR VTZ014-015.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR MAZ001.
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR CTZ001.