WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
200 PM MST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH BEING HANDLED A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY                   
BETWEEN MODELS.  DIFFERENCES NOT MUCH FOR NORTHERN ZONES BUT COULD              
BE SIGNIFICANT FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND SOME CENTRAL ZONES.   ETA AGAIN           
IS TAKING THE VORT FURTHEST SOUTH...WHILE NGM AS IS USUALLY THE                 
CASE IS THE MOST ABUNDANT WITH MOISTURE OVER OUR ENTIRE CWFA.  ETA              
AND RUC SEEM TO BE DOING BEST JOB DELINEATING THE DOUBLE                        
STRUCTURED NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL RH PATTERN.  RUC AND NGM TAKE                
THE 80% PLUS RH TO THE NM BORDER.  WOULD EXPECT THE RUC MODEL...                
WHICH IS ONLY AVAILABLE THROUGH FRI MORNING...TO VERIFY THE                     
BEST THRU FRI MORNING. ALREADY BEGAN SNOWING IN NRN WASATCH                     
MOUNTAINS OF UT BY NOON...AND EXPECT TIMING OF SNOW ONSET IN ERN                
UT/WRN CO TONIGHT TO BE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE.  LOW LEVEL              
WINDS UP TO ABOUT H6 BECOME NORTHERLY BY MID MORNING ON ALL MODELS...           
WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE SNOW IN MOST NRN AND CNTRL AREAS EXCEPT FOR           
THE FEW OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.   LOW CIRCULATION WHICH               
MODELS DEPICT IN THE SRN CO/NRN NM BORDER AREA FRI MORNING MAY KEEP             
SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN SW MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THOUGH             
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY LIKELY TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO SNOW             
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WESTERN SAN JUAN MTNS.  ONLY CAVEAT FOR SW CO              
MTNS IS IF NGM MOISTURE FIELD WERE TO VERIFY...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY...           
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE MORE SNOW THAN PRESENTLY EXPECTED.  SNOW ADVISORY           
SEEMS TO BE APPROPRIATE HIGHLIGHT FOR MOST WESTERN CO MOUNTAINS LATE            
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW MODEL INDICATES 4-8 INCHES IN GENERAL OVER             
THE 18 HOUR PERIOD IN QUESTION...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI                   
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SNOW IN NRN/CNTRL MTNS SHOULD BE BETWEEN                 
MIDNIGHT TNGT AND MID MORNING FRI. MOST OF SNOW IN SW CO MTNS SHOULD            
BE VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.  HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT             
INCLUDING C0Z012...CRESTED BUTTE/TAYLOR PARK AREAS...IN THE SNOW                
ADVISORY SINCE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW SIDE ESPECIALLY IF             
ETA MODEL VERIFIES. EXCLUDED ERN UT MTNS AND LOWER MOUNTAINS OF WRN             
CO...COZ003-017...FROM THE SNOW ADVISORY DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL               
BEING EITHER BELOW CRITERIA OR BARELY BORDERLINE FOR ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. ALSO CONTEMPLATED ADDING BLOWING SNOW TO THE ADVISORY...              
HOWEVER BELIEVE THIS SITUATION TO BE LOCALIZED.                                 
DRY WX TO PREVAIL DURING WEEKEND AND INTO FIRST FEW DAYS OF NEXT                
WEEK.  AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE               
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA DURING THAT PERIOD WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO                     
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE...MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES OVER THE               
AREA WITH NO PRECIP.  TEMPS IN VALLEYS LIKELY WILL STRUGGLE TO                  
RECOVER DUE TO INVERSIONS...AND THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS ON CHILLY SIDE             
AFTER THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SUNDAY MORNING MAY HAVE SOME OF           
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER.                                    
PRINGLE                                                                         
.GJT...SNOW ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT & FRIDAY...COZ004-009>012-018-019.            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 022133  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
830 PM CST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE DROPPING OFF A BIT IN FAR NORTHWEST CWA, CLOUDY              
SKIES AND GOOD NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON BOUNDARY LAYER                 
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL ABOVE MINS FORECAST IN AFTERNOON ZONES.  ONLY            
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LIKELY TO HAVE A SHOT AT UNDER 50. LATEST RUC               
295K ANALYSIS AND FORECAST STILL SUGGESTING RAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY             
LATE (WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT) SO NO BIG CHANGE TO THE PRECIP FORECAST              
IN UPCOMING ZONE AMENDMENTS.  PRECIP AREA NOW BLOSSOMING IN                     
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS/ARKANSAS LIKELY TO EXPAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST.                    
KAPLAN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLOT 022126  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
944 AM EST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EAST AWAY            
FROM THE REGION. A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS              
THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                   
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:                                                           
LATEST IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED INTENSE LOW NR NS W/SIGNS OF                      
RETROGRADING TO THE W. BACK EDGE OF SCU/AC SHIELD ACRS ZNS 5>30.                
FURTHER N & W...SCT AC & CI FM QUEBEC PROV. LATEST RUC2 HAS LLVL RH             
BACKING INTO ZNS 5-6 & THRU DOWNEAST THIS AFTN. MTRS OVER IN NEW                
BRUNSWICK SHOWING -SN. IF SYSM BACKS FAR ENUF W...I WOULDN/T RULE OUT           
SOME SHSN/-SN ESP ZNS 2>6. AM CONSIDERING THROWING IN THE MENTION OF            
A FLURRY OR SHSN. WILL DECIDE AFT ASSESSING THGS A BIT MORE.                    
FOR TEMPS...AM TOYING W/THE IDEA OF SHAVING MAXS BACK A NOTCH DUE               
TO N WIND & INCG CLDS ESP ERN & DOWNEAST ZNS.                                   
MARINE: PER TELCO W/GYX...AGREE TO LEAVE GLW AS IS. BOUYS STILL                 
CLOSE TO GALES. SUNSHINE & LOW NOT MOVG MUCH WILL KEEP GRDNT TIGHT.             
WE BELIEVE WINDS WILL CONT IN THAT 30-35 KT RNG THRU 21Z.                       
.CAR...GLW.                                                                     
JAH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   me                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EST THU DEC 2 1999                                                      
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.. AS 06Z ETA AND 12Z RUC               
INDICATE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING IN PLACE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS            
INTO THE AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE                
RIDGE.. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MSUNNY FORECAST AS OPPOSED TO SUNNY.              
TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.. AND           
ARE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS 3-HOURLY GUIDANCE.  TEMPS UPSTREAM         
YESTERDAY WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S.. BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA           
MAY PUSH THOSE READINGS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR US TODAY.  14Z LAMP          
GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS AROUND 50 FOR AREAS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.. AND         
UPPER 40S FOR BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON. MAY TWEAK AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS           
UP A DEGREE OR TWO.. BUT FOR THE MOST PART GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.           
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   md                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
955 PM EST THU DEC 02 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS CWA IN LGT SELY FLOW AHD OF LO PRES OVR SW MN            
AND ITS ATTENDANT WARM FNT XTNDG ESEWD THRU SRN WI TO NW OH.                    
ALTHOUGH SFC DWPTS IN COOL AIR OVR CWA/NRN WI AND LWR MI AHD OF WARM            
FNT REMAIN MAINLY 25 TO 35...DWPTS RISING INTO 40S IN WARM SECTOR               
OVR SRN WI AND IL. ALSO SOME LK MI MSTR ENHANCEMENT IN SELY FLOW HAS            
RESULTED IN PTCHY LO CLD ACRS ECNTRL ZNS WITH VFR VRBL IFR CIG AT               
KSAW ARND 00Z A BIT PROBLEMATIC FOR TAF. MN SFC LO ASSOCIATED WITH              
SHRTWV TROF NOW ENTERING NW MN IN WSWLY SPLIT FLOW ALF ON WRN FLANK             
OF BLDG UPR RDG IN E PER WV LOOP/00Z H5 RAOBS. IR SAT LOOP SHOWS                
COMMA CLD HEAD OVR NRN MN SHIFTING NEWD WITH RADAR COMPOSITE/SFC OBS            
INDICATING PTCHY LGT SN WHERE MODELS FCSTG H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC.                 
HOWEVER SWLY FLOW IN DRY SLOT AHD OF SHRTWV HAS ADVCTD DRIER AIR ALF            
OVR CWA...AND UPSTREAM 00Z MPX/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY                  
PROFILE. SO JUST LOTS OF SC OVR FA WITH NO PCPN.                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN/FOG AND TEMPS. MODELS            
INDICATE MN SHRTWV/LO PRES WL CONT TO ENE TNGT WITH SFC WARM FNT                
APRCHG MNM TOWARD 12Z. 12Z MODELS/18Z MESOETA CONTINUED ON EARLIER              
TREND OF TRYING TO MOISTEN ATMOSPHERE TOO QUICKLY AND WERE TOO QUICK            
TO GENERATE PCPN OVR SE ZNS BEGINNING ARND 00Z. GRB PROFILE                     
INDICATES ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY. ALTHOUGH INCRSG LO              
LVL MSTR S OF WARM FNT WL OVRRUN COOLER AIR MASS TO N AND RESULT IN             
STEADY BUT GRDL INCRS IN LO-MID TROP RH OVR NE WI/SE ZNS/NRN LK MI              
AS DEPICTED ON I295 ISENTROPIC SFC FCSTS...GRB SDNG SUGS A LOT OF               
MOISTENING STILL NECESSARY. SO PREFER 00Z RUC FCST...WHICH SHOWS LGT            
RA DVLPG THIS EVNG OVR WI AND SPRDG TOWARD MNM ARND 12Z. ALTHOUGH               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH MN SHRTWV WL MOVE INTO WRN ZNS              
LATE THIS EVNG/OVRNGT...ATMOSPHERE THERE SHUD REMAIN PROHIBITIVELY              
DRY WITH BEST MSTR ADVCTN REMAINING TO E.                                       
EVEN THOUGH LO-MID TROP SHUD REMAIN TOO DRY FOR RA...HIER SFC DWPTS             
IN SELY FLOW OFF LK MI SUG POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DZ...MAINLY IN DOWNWIND            
AREAS FM ESC-ISQ. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DRY LO LVLS OBSVD ON OTHR SIDE OF            
LK MI WL PREVENT ANY DENSE FOG. ALTHOUGH LO LVL MSTR IMPACTING SAW              
ATTM...FCST VEERING OF LO LVL WND TO MORE SSWLY OVRNGT AS SFC LO                
HEADS TO NW WL CUTOFF LK MI MOISTENING IN CNTRL ZNS. ABUNDANT LO CLD            
AND GENERAL WAD WL PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES             
FM CURRENT READINGS. IN FACT...LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPS             
WL REMAIN STEADY.                                                               
WL UPDATE ZNS TO GO LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG/DZ XCPT OVR ERN ZNS.              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 030244  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
844 PM CST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDINESS COVERING THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK              
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF MN. THINGS SHOULD REMAIN            
ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY            
IS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US OVERNIGHT. FIRST SHORT WAVE IS OVER             
FAR NORTHERN MN AT THIS TIME AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS                    
OCCURRING. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY                    
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. SECOND SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS AND WILL BE MOVING INTO MO BY DAYBREAK. QUITE IMPRESSIVE                 
DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT OFF TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS IA               
AND MO WITH RUC H8 LI/S -2 TO -4 AND H8-H5 LAPSE RATES >6 DEG C.                
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE            
CWA FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT REMOVE DRIZZLE WORDING ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP            
THE MENTION OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF MN. WILL             
RAISE LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NORTH AND FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN               
SOUTHERN MN WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S.                              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 022133  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1000 PM CST THU DEC 2 1999                                                      
SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS GETTING ITS             
ACT TOGETHER WITH STORMS OVER NRN TX/OK/WRN AR. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...         
STRONG 35-45KT LLJ OVER ARK-LA-TEX REGION LENDING TO GOOD LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IN INCREASING SLY FLOW.           
ENHANCEMENT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM             
THE WEST IN VICINITY OF 80-100KT 300 MB JET MAX OVER NE TX. ALL                 
TOLD...CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES OVERALL SCENARIO WELL ON WINDS/TEMPS/           
POPS AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM SHEARS JUST TO THE            
NW OF THE FA PER LATEST RUC DATA. WILL UPDATE MAINLY FOR TEMPORAL               
WORDING AND MAY JUMP LOWS UP A HALF CAT OR SO IN PARTS OF THE NORTH             
AND WEST WITH CLOUD COVER/WINDS INCREASING. OTHERWISE...NOTHING ELSE            
TO ADD.                                                                         
JAN 52/72/57/72 2433                                                            
MEI 45/74/55/72 -333                                                            
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
05                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KJAN 022113  ms                                      

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
900 PM MST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST. SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE TOPS         
ARE WARMING IN IDAHO WITH SNOW AND CLOUDS DECREASING FROM                       
OBSERVATIONS...SUCH AS KMYL AND KSMN. TFX AND OTHER RADARS SHOWING              
ECHOES WEAKENING. MAIN VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS DIGGING WAY SOUTH OF MONTANA        
AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT IS SUPPOSE TO BE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT         
IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE TONIGHT ON OLD PROGS IS NO LONGER PROGGED INTO        
AREA ON NEW RUC...NGM AND ETA. THE VORTICITY IS MAINLY SHEAR VORTICITY          
IN WESTERN MONTANA AND MOVES LITTLE. QPF ON NEW PROGS IS QUITE LOW ALSO.        
DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF DIVIDE NOT HELPING...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY GO TO          
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FRIDAY WHEN DYNAMICS ABOUT OVER IN SPLIT FLOW AND         
LOSS OF SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND STATE FORECAST           
AND DROP ALL HIGHLIGHTS. OARD                                                   
GTF 3400 HLN 5500 HVR 4410                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KMSO 030340  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
250 PM CST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
MAJOR FCST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PSBL EXTENT OF LOW CLDS/F TNGT AND THEN           
SECOND UPR SYSTEM WHICH WL BEGIN TO AFFECT FCST AREA SATURDAY BUT               
MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE IN                 
SHORT TERM...BUT DIVERGE RTHR SIGFNTLY BY 48HRS.  LAST NGTS ETA WAS             
PRBLY A LTL BTR WITH SPEED/STRENGTH OF 2ND UPR TROF WHICH CURRENT               
STLT SHOWD IT MOVG INTO FAR NWRN NV.  ETA IS SLOWER AND MUCH FTHR S             
WITH THE UPR SYS AND ASSOCD SFC LOW BY 48HRS.  WITH 140+ KT JET AT              
250 MB STILL DIVING DOWN BACK SIDE OF THE TROF THIS SOLUTION CAN NOT            
BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.  THIS WOULD POINT TO MORE COLD AIR OVER                   
SPREADING FCST AREA WITH ANY PCPN CHANGING TO SNOW QUICKER BUT LESS             
OF IT.  FOR NOW WL USE BLEND OF ALL MODELS AND BRING MODESTLY HIGH              
POPS INTO AREA SATURDAY BUT WON/T CHANGE TO FROZEN PCPN SERN ZONES.             
IN SHORT TERM...VISIBLE STLT HAS SHOWN A FASTER DECREASE/SWD SHIFT              
IN LOW CLDS LAST HR OR SO AIDED BY ADVCTN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND             
MODERATE NW WNDS FAR NWRN CWA.  HOWEVER...LATEST RUC 925 MB FCST NOW            
BACKS LOW LVL WINDS TO THE SW BY 06Z AS FAR NW AS OLU AND OFK.                  
DON/T KNOW IF THIS WILL QUITE VERIFY...BUT IT DOES MAKE LGT WINDS               
LOOK LIKELY MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT.  WITH DWPTS RANGING FM UPPER 30S             
NW TO NEAR 50 SOUTH...LOW CLDS AND FOG LOOK QUITE PSBL.  WL KEEP                
DRIZZLE SERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE CYCLONIC LOW LVL FLOW.  ALSO WITH              
FIRST UPR SYS...ALTHOUGH IT WL STAY TO OUR S...SPRDG UPR DIVERGENCE             
OVR SERN ZONES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ARND 295-300 K SFCS...WL                
KEEP POPS IN FCST THERE.  WL CUT BACK TO SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY LNK/OMA            
AREAS.  850 MB JET ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...AND ALTHOUGH IT STAYS               
MAINLY TO OUR SE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION PSBL SERN CORNER TNGT AS              
850 MB BASED LIFTED FM AVN GOES NEGATIVE.  RELATIVELY HIGH DWPTS AND            
EXPECTED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAKES FWC TEMPS LOOK TOO COOL TNGT.                  
WL CONT CLDS/F AND PSBL DRIZZLE IN MORNING FRIDAY WITH CHC OF                   
SHOWERS SERN ZONES.  COULD BE SOME AFTN BREAKS IN OVC BFR NEXT SYS              
ARRIVES...SPCLY IF LOW CLDS/F NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS EXPECTED.  FOR NOW            
WL LEAVE ALL BUT NWRN ZONES MOCLDY ALL DAY...WL ALLOW FOR SOME                  
SUNSHINE NW IN THE AFTN.  NO AFTN POPS ATTM WITH HIGHS NEAR PREV                
FCST/FWC VALUES.                                                                
QG FORCING/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS INCREASING FM SWRN TOWARD NERN                
NEBR BY SAT MORNING AS NEXT SYS CROSSES SRN RCKYS.  WL INTRODUCE CHC            
LGT PCPN NERN NEBR BY SAT MORNING SPRDG ACRS CWA DURING SATURDAY.               
THERE COULD BE A FIRST WAVE OF WRM ADVCTN PCPN DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC             
LIFT WHICH COULD DECREASE LATER SAT BFR MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT OUT SAT              
NGT/SUN.  SO IT PRBLY WON/T BE AN ALL DAY PCPN EVENT SAT MOST AREAS             
WITH PCPN AMOUNTS...IF ANY...STILL FAIRLY LIGHT.  THIS COULD CHANGE             
IN EXTENDED...SPCLY IF SYS LIFTS FTHR NWWD PER AVN.  WE WILL HANDLE             
THIS BY ADDING A SAT NGT PD TO EXTENDED MENTIONING JUST SNOW NERN               
ZONES...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FM LNK TO OMA AND A MIX ALL NGT INTO              
SUNDAY FAR SERN ZONES.                                                          
REST OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS AGAIN CLIMBING BACK ABV NORMAL.           
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
CHERMOK                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 022045  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
915 PM CST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
FCST UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A LATE                
AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY             
INDICATED A DESTABILIZED AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING              
THROUGH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE UPR FLOW. 00Z RUC MODEL RUN PICKED THIS           
FEATURE UP WELL BUT DIDNT GENERATE PCPN. 88D IMAGERY AND SFC REPORTS            
INDICATE AREAS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH PCPN...BUT SUFFICIENT TO             
GLAZE COOLING SURFACES. CURRENT TEMPS DONT WARRANT A FREEZING DRIZZLE           
ADVISORY...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. EXPECT COOLING TEMPS WILL CONVERT          
TO SNOW AS MID LEVELS SHOULD BE COOLING AS WELL. SMALL COMMA HEAD IS            
EVEIDENT ON IR IMAGERY AND INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY PERSIST               
ACROSS NRN MN.                                                                  
WITH VERY LIGHT SFC WINDS...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE           
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...GENERALLY AFT MIDNIGHT IN NW MN. OTHER PORTIONS         
OF THE CWFA WILL SEE PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND MIDNIGHT.                        
A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE PANHANDLE REGION OF TEXAS            
AND OKLAHOMA. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY             
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS            
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM            
THIS SYSTEM. WE CAN EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS TO TRANSIT THE AREA FRIDAY              
AND SATURDAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM TO DRAG               
COOLER CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD...INTO THE REGION...AND INCREASE OUR              
NORTHERLY WINDS BY SATURDAY.                                                    
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK.              
THE WEATHER WILL TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE             
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...YET READINGS              
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. AT THE PRESENT TIME NO MAJOR STORMS ARE            
ON THE HORIZON FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                                         
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 030204  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC                              
945 AM EST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS EVAPORATING AS IT TOPS THE MID LEVEL             
RIDGE AXIS...WHICH THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TO THE WEST OF THE          
FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE 06Z ETA AND THE 12Z RUC KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS ON          
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THRU THE END OF THE DAY. WITH THAT IN         
MIND...DO NOT EXPECT HARDLY ANY CIRRUS UNTIL PERHAPS LATE IN THE                
AFTERNOON...THUS SUNNY MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE THAN MOSTLY SUNNY.             
ZONE TEMPS LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST PART...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY                  
CHANGES.                                                                        
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   sc                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
925 PM EST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
THIS EVENING/S WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY INDICATE S/W AMPLIFICATION            
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...ENHANCING CONVECTION THERE AND...TO A LESSER            
DEGREE...INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISANNA. HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM...               
WITH THE CENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION NEAR SAVANNAH GA...IS                    
REMAINING STATIONARY THIS EVENING. VERY DRY SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL               
AIR IN THE FORECAST AREA IS MODIFYING (MOISTENING) SLOWLY. SO...FOR             
TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK GOOD. HOWEVER...                  
TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE TOO COOL.                                            
CONSIDERING THAT THE RUC MODEL HANDLES THE PRESSURE FALLS WITH THE              
UPSTREAM SYSTEM BETTER...THE SOLUTION FOR MORE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS                
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE RUC JUSTIFY THE TEMPERATURE UPDATE TONIGHT.               
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS TEND TO MAINTAIN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE             
IN THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRIDAY WHILE...HIGHER UP...THE              
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM NOT TO BRING ANY             
PRECIPITATION IN ON FRIDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN             
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 03/18Z...THEREAFTER                   
WEAKENING.                                                                      
EXPECT SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY (AGAIN...PARTLY                
CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO PREVAIL). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS STRONGER             
IN THE 02/18Z MESO-ETA RELATIVE TO THE 02/12Z MODELS FOR FRIDAY...SO            
WILL INCREASE WITH WINDS IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY A LITTLE FOR THE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE NC CODING (NC...) AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD REFERS ONLY TO                   
CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE VA CODING (VA...)             
REFERS ONLY TO LEE, RUSSELL, SCOTT, WASHINGTON, AND WISE COUNTIES               
IN VIRGINIA. THE TN CODING (TN...) REFERS ONLY TO EAST TENNESSEE.               
OTHERS PORTIONS OF THESE STATES MAY HAVE WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT             
THAT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THIS AFD.                                         
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 022040  tn                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
920 PM CST THU DEC 2 1999                                                       
00Z RUC MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR            
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST ACROSS SOUTH           
CENTRAL TEXAS. THUS WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL AREAS. LOW LEVEL WINDS             
HAVE DIMINISHED OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A               
WEAKENED DRYLINE.  THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT NORTHWEST FRIDAY AS                 
GULF MOISTURE BECOMES DRAWN INTO THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM              
WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHIFTING            
WINDS FOR ALL AREAS AS LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD UP             
ALL NIGHT. WITH ANKLE DEEP MOISTURE STILL HOLDING TIGHT OVER THE RIO            
GRANDE PLAINS, WILL MENTION PATCHY MORNING CLOUDS OVER ALL AREAS                
EXCEPT THE DRT AREA.  REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.                        
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
18/19                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLUB 030314  tx                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
850 PM PST THU DEC 02 1999                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM THIS EVENING CONCERNS FROST POTENTIAL IN               
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SJ VALLEY. SAT PICS SHOW MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE               
LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF DISSIPATED COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED                   
SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS NV. SFO-LAS GRAD REMAINS AT A HEALTHY 14             
MB THIS EVE...KHNX VWP SHOWS 15-20 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE SURFACE...AND            
MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW CAA CONTG OVERNIGHT WITH 20KT FLOW THROUGH LOW                
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...DECOUPLING OF LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED WINDS             
AT MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AT 04Z...              
TRANSPARENCY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR RADIATIVE                 
LOSSES OVERNIGHT...AND CAA SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER MINS BY              
SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN UPPER 30S TO            
LOWER 40S SHOULD DECREASE A FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH                    
MAJORITY OF VALLEY TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN MID 30S OVERNIGHT...                  
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A FEW COLDER WIND-SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO DROP             
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK AND CURRENT FROST ADVISORY              
FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING WILL BE CONTINUED.                           
OTHERWISE...SURFACE GRAD WAS SUPPORTING BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER KERN             
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS EVE AND WINDS MAY CONT OVERNIGHT AS PROGS            
SHOW CAA AND SUBSIDENCE CONTG THROUGH LOW-MID LEVELS. ALIGNMENT OF              
SURFACE GRADS WITH FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME CONTD UPSLOPE            
CLOUDS OVER SIERRA FOOTHILLS/KERN MOUNTAINS.                                    
NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                                                
.HNX...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN                  
       VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.                            
JSN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KMTR 030628 COR  ca                                  

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
300 AM MST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF.            
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE.. AT 09Z THIS              
COVERED EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.  SURFACE COLD              
FRONT CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH WITH WIND SHIFT AT KCNY AT 0835Z.           
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW                   
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.  LOCATIONS THAT NORMALLY DO NOT SEE A LOT OF              
SNOW MAY SEE A LITTLE OF IT THIS MORNING.  MODELS DOING A BETTER                
HANDLING UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EVENING.             
DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES.. FORECASTS WOULD NOT DIFFER MUCH REGARDLESS           
WHICH MODEL IS CHOSEN.  THE SHORT TERM RUC MODEL MOST APPROPRIATE               
HERE SINCE MOST OF THE WEATHER WITHIN COUNTY WARNING AREA OCCURS IN             
THE FIRST 12 HOURS.  DESPITE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HIGH RELATIVE              
HUMIDITIES.. WIND FLOW VEERS TO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND THAT'S NOT            
FAVORABLE FOR A LOT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW EXCEPT ISOLATED AREAS.  PARTS              
OF THE GRAND MESA.. THE FLAT TOPS.. AND THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF              
THE SAN JUANS MAY BE THE WINNERS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.. TOTAL            
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH THE 6 TO 10 INCH RANGE.  LESSER AMOUNTS              
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO REACH SNOW                   
ADVISORY AMOUNTS.. LIKE ZONE 12 (WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS).               
THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA            
BY TONIGHT.. THEREFORE WILL NOT EXTEND THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY.               
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW FOR MANY AREAS..             
WILL ADVERTISE PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE.. WILL INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEY             
LOCATIONS.  EXPECT CLEARING IN EARNEST FROM THE WEST WITH PREVAILING            
NORTHERLY FLOW.. BUT EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES             
NEAR THE DIVIDE ON SATURDAY.  FRISBIE                                           
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A HIGH LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.                  
.GJT...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY...COZ004-009-010-012-018-019.                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 030430  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
345 AM CST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH IN FIRST PERIOD.  HAVE                 
FOCUSED ON ETA/AVN SOLUTION IN LONG TERM WITH WEAKER LOW PRESSURE               
SYSTEM VCNTY OF AR BY 48 HOURS AS NGM APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE                    
CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM RIDGING DEVELOPING AHEAD OF NEXT NRN             
PACIFIC SYSTEM.  HENCE TRENDING TWD DRIER ALL AROUND FCST AS LATEST             
MRF GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SWITCHED BACK TO MORE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR EXTENDED PERIOD...IN GOOD AGREEMENT                
WITH LATEST UK MODEL.                                                           
FIRST SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUSES ON DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN WRN AREAS            
OF ZONE FORECAST AREA.  CLEARING AREA WELL HANDLED BY LATEST RUC                
GUIDANCE AS WEAK SFC LOW IN SERN MN CONTS TO WKN.  DVLPG LGT NLY                
FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SC SHIELD OVR ERN                       
DAKOTAS/NRN MN SWD INTO THIS AREA.  ALSO LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON                   
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING MORE SC DVLPMT VCNTY OF RWF IN ADDITION TO CI              
SHIELD SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD THRU IA.  HENCE WL ONLY MENTION MORNING            
FOG...POTENTIALLY DENSE IN CURRENT AREA OF CLRING AS WDSPD DENSE FOG            
NOT LIKELY.                                                                     
POTENT S/W OVR SERN KS EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD TWD LK MI TDY WITH DEEP            
MOISTURE ALG AND AHEAD OF ITS PROGRESS...CUTTING OFF DEEP MOISTURE              
ADVECTING INTO SRN MN.  WEAKENING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LKLY TO                 
PRODUCE SOME DEFORMATION -RA AND 295-300K SFCS SHOWING ENOUGH LIFT              
FOR SATURATION PUSHING THRU IA INTO SRN WI TDY...WITH BEST LIFT                 
CLIPPING SERN MN.  PATCHY -RA ALREADY BEGINNING TO DVLP IN NRN IA.              
WL CONT SML POPS IN AREAS BDRG ARX/DMX AREAS WITH MENTION OF -DZ OR             
SPRINKLES FTHR NORTH.  LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS QUITE HIGH THROUGH LATER            
PERIODS AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MN AS IT PHASES WITH SRN              
SYSTEM.  COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE.  WL REEXAMINE IN             
LTR SHIFTS.  WL CONT MENTION OF -SHRA/-SHSN WITH PASSAGE OF SAID                
TROUGH ON SAT.  GUIDANCE TEMPS NOT BAD BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST                   
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SC IN WEST.                                    
COORD WITH ARX..DMX..FSD..FGF.                                                  
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 030243  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
215 AM EST FRI DEC 03 1999                                                      
DISC: LATEST RUC2 COMPOSITE FROM SPC SHWS 150+ JET AT 300H DIGGING              
DOWN W COAST AND EJECTING S/W OVER OK/MO NE AND PLENTY OF MID/HI LVL            
MOIST INTO CFA TDY. STRONG UPER RIDGE IN PLACE WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT          
AS S/W APRROACHES AND SKIRTS BY NRN AREAS WITH CHANCE OF SHWRS.                 
CLDS WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. UPSTEAM           
HIGH WERE IN THE MID 50S TO 60S THU AND WITH WINDS AT 80H W-SW WAA              
WILL BRING IN SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE                
RISING TO MAKE IT "FEEL" MORE COMFORT TDY AND SAT.                              
VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE           
SUN AND BACK DOOR FRONT DROPS DOWN EARLY MONDAY. 72H AVN SIM TO LAST            
MRF RUN WITH DEEP 50H LO OVER MO SUN EVENING REMAINING N OF CFA AS              
SFC FRONT BRINGS CHC SHWRS ON MON.                                              
ALL IN ALL...NOT A BAD OUTLOOK. PCPN IS STILL LIQUID AS COLDEST AIR             
BASICALLY HUNG UP AT 60N THRU BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RECORDS HAVE            
SHOWN(GIGI RESEARCH) THAT DEC AVERAGES ABT 1.4 DEGREES ABV NRML                 
FOLLOWING 12 WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD. NOV 1999 RANKED 7TH. ONLY             
2 OF THE TWELVE HAPPENED TO BE LA NINA WINTER...WHICH IS NOT THAT               
DIFFERENT FROM EL NINO TEMPS DURING THE WINTER.                                 
SW WINDS AT 44009 AND AIR TEMPS STILL 50 DEG. WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED               
AND NO FLAGS TODAY.                                                             
SEE YA...                                                                       
.PHI...NONE.                                                                    
EBERWINE                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KPBZ 030724  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
340 AM CST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE EXTENT OF FOG THIS MORNING              
AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SURFACE PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT VERY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...WITH MSAS ANAL SHOWING LIGHT N               
WINDS ONLY OVER FAR EAST COUNTIES...A WEAK LOW OVER W. SD AND A VERY            
WEAK HIGH JUST ACROSS ND BORDER TO OUR N...AND VERY PERSISTENT L/L              
RH. ADJUSTING FOR CURRENT SFC TEMP AT ABR...00Z ABR SOUNDING SHOWS              
IVERSION TRAPPING NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. RUC AND ETA TIME-HT                    
SECTIONS THROUGH THE MORNING KEEP THE SHALLOW MOISTURE IN...THUS                
WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT FOR MOST OF CWA THROUGH MID                    
MORNING. AS FOG BEGINS TO FINALLY BREAK UP...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL               
COME INTO LOW-MID LEVELS UP TO AS HIGH AS 700 MB...SO LITTLE IF ANY             
SUN EXPECTED TODAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN GENERAL FEATURES AND                      
TRENDS...AND FOLLOWED A GENERAL AVN/ETA SOLUTION FOR THE DETAILS.               
BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAY WITH UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH AND                 
SOUTHEAST. FOR US...WEAK NORTHERN STREAM U/L TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH              
OVERNIGHT FRI-SAT. LIFT UNIMPRESSIVE FOR ABR CWA...BUT SUFFICIENT               
MOISTURE FOR KEEPING IN 20 POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND FAR EASTERN                    
COUNTIES. TEMPS INDICATED SLIGHT POSSIBILITY PRECIP IN EASTERN                  
COUNTIES MIGHT BEGIN AS -RA...BUT BEST MOISTURE COMES IN FOLLOWING              
WBZ TEMPS DROPPING TO OR BELOW 0C. FOR AREAS NORTH AND                          
WEST...PICTURE IS SIMILAR...BUT EVEN LESS MOISTURE AND LIFT...SO                
INDICATED POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES IF ANYTHING. FAN AND FWC TEMPS REASONABLY     
CLOSE AND USED A BLENDING OF THE TWO FOR THE MOST PART.                         
.ABR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...FOR MOST OF CWA...EXCEPT BUFFALO...BIG              
STONE...AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES...TILL 10 AM CST...9 AM MST.                      
LORENS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 030438  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WWEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                  
1110 AM EST FRI DEC 03 1999                                                     
LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEB WITH A FRONT THAT RUNS ACROSS WISC AND NORTHERN            
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE FRONT'S NORTHERN PROGRESSION IS BEING IMPEDED BY             
THE H5 VORT MAX NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE             
MOISTURE IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE DRIER AIR TRIES TO BREAK            
UP THE CLOUDS JUST TO THE WEST IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA             
AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                         
RUC AND MESOETA LOOK TO BE HANDLING THE SITUATION OKAY. THERE ARE A             
FEW MORE HOLES IN THE CLOUDS OUT UPSTREAM THAN THE MODELS WOULD                 
INDICATE. HOWEVER...1000-850 MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN AND STAYS                   
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION WHILE 850-500 LAYER CONTINUES TO DRY.               
THIS MEANS THAT FOG PROBABLY DOESN'T DEVELOP UNTIL THE EVENING SO               
WILL PULL THE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF             
THE WESTERN ZONES AND GO WITH SPRINKLES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS                
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED IN LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN             
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK IN THIS                    
EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD SO FAR.                                  
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 031550  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC                              
940 AM EST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING UP THE          
BACK SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE...WHOSE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE              
CAROLINAS ON THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THE EDGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS         
CORRESPONDED ROUGHLY TO THE EDGE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT RECENT            
SATELLITE TRENDS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE 06Z ETA AND 12Z RUC HAVE            
THE RIGHT IDEA WITH KEEPING THE THICKER CLOUDS FROM THE MOUNTAINS               
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS LIFT THE                
RELATIVELY HIGHER UPPER LEVEL RH CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OFF TO            
THE NE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...THINK THE CIRRUS EAST OF THE         
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN THIN...MEANING THAT WE WILL HAVE ESSENTIALLY A            
BRIGHT DAY WITH THE SUN SHINING THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS...AND MAY TWEAK            
THE WORDING A BIT. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OK FOR NOW.                                 
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 030754  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                 
1135 AM EST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                      
WV LOOP SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND ONE OVER WESTERN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED               
WITH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH A                
WARM FRONT ARCING NORTHEAST TO THE STRAITS AND THEN DOWN INTO                   
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. KAPX/KGRR/DTX 88D LOOPS SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT                  
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN LOWER...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD BAND OF PRECIP             
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.                                                     
NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST.            
12Z RUC/06Z MESOETA KEEP IT SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH MODEL                 
RESOLUTION NOT ABLE TO PICK UP ON CURRENT PRECIP BAND EXTENDING FROM            
THE THUMB THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...THEY DO HINT AT MORE                     
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. 295K/300K ISENTROPIC LIFT...850-500MB QVECTOR                
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE...300MB DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT                  
REGION OF JET STREAK ALL POINT TO PRECIP TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS              
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MAIN FORCING STAYS SOUTH OF UPPER                      
MICHIGAN...BUT STILL A CHANCE WITH AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR            
THE WARM FRONT.                                                                 
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION OF MAIN PRECIP BAND INDICATES ARRIVAL IN                   
HTL-OSC BY 18Z AND IN APN-TVC BY 20Z. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST            
WITH MOVEMENT OF SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER                    
SOUTHERN CWA AND LOWEST OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN UPPER.                            
WITH CLOUDS...RAIN...AND FOG...EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB              
BY A FEW DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. GIVEN CURRENT METARS...WILL             
TWEAK TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FOR MOST AREAS.                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 031607  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1130 AM CST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                      
COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS WESTERN SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXERT             
GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA. ZONES WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON            
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AS DEPICTED ON LATEST RUC.               
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY ON MESONET DATA NOW LIES FROM E                   
CENTRAL TO S CENTRAL OK AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY NW, IF AT            
ALL, THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NW OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO VARY FROM E-NE            
IN NW OK TO E-SE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW OK. MAY HAVE TO                
ADJUST SOME MAX TEMPS AS THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD STRENGTHEN, LEADING TO            
A SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL GRADIENT.                                                 
CONCERN FOR SEVERE T-STORMS BEGINS THIS EVENING AS 850 FLOW BACKS               
AND LLJ STRENGTHENS NEAR OR JUST E OF I-35 CORRIDOR, RESULTING IN               
STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG                    
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRAWBACK MAY BE DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL               
MOISTURE NOW SITTING OVER E TX AND SE OK, AS LITTLE OF IT APPEARS AT            
850MB THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC FORCING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR             
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT, PERHAPS BEGINNING EARLY TO MID EVENING,                   
ESPECIALLY IF MOISTURE RETURN IS SUFFICIENT.                                    
THIS AFTERNOON WE ALSO WILL BE LOOKING VERY CLOSELY AT THE SNOW                 
POTENTIAL OVER PARTS OF N AND W OK LATE SAT AND SAT NIGHT. EARLY                
INDICATIONS FROM 12Z MODEL DATA ARE THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING                 
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, AT LEAST IN THE NW. MORE IN                
THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                      
24                                                                              
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 031635  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
315 PM EST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
ETA APPEARS TO BE THE BEST MODEL FOR 48 HR FCST AS AVN TOO FAST WITH            
SWRN U.S. UPR LO. NGM BETTER BUT POSSIBLY TOO DEEP AND SLOW WITH                
SYSTEM. 1ST VORT BUILDING NE ACROSS MID/ERN TN AND HAVE NOTED LIGHT             
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVR WRN/MID TN WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
SHOW WEAKENING TREND WITH MOVEMENT INTO RIDGE POSITION WHICH IS                 
CURRENTLY HAPPENING. STILL...BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A FEW DROPS                 
HERE AND THERE AND USED SPRINKLES FOR THE "LEFTOVER" WX THRU FCST               
VALID TIME AND A LITTLE BEYOND. YET ANOTHER...STRONGER FEATURE                  
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVR E TX/SW LA WHICH IS DISPLAYED ON             
MODELS AS STREAKING NNE THRU MS VLY TWD LWR OH VLY PRESENTS THE                 
BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH FCST. DECIDED TO KEEP POPS OUT FOR TONITE IN               
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS S/WV AS LATEST RUC IN ADDITION TO MAIN MODEL              
RUNS PUSH LIFT/MOISTURE THRU WRN/MID TN WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT OTHER               
THAN CLOUDS FOR E TN.                                                           
CLEARING TREND OCCURS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY MID DAY SAT BUT WILL                
NOT GET FANCY WITH SKY CONDITION WORDING AND JUST USE PC. WEAK SLY              
FLO CONTINUES THRU SAT NITE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AWAITING                    
ARRIVAL OF UPR LO AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE MOVG THRU             
MS VLY BY 12Z SUN. USED AN INCREASING CLOUD TREND ON SUN WITH SMALL             
CHC POPS FOR AFTERNOON/LATE AFTERNOON AS BELIEVE BEST CHC OF RAIN               
WILL BE SUN NITE/MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH...AM UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW                 
FAST TROF DEPARTS ON MONDAY AFTER A LOOK AT MRF SO DIDN'T GET FANCY             
WITH IMPROVEMENT IN WX ON 1ST DAY OF EXTENDED.                                  
GENERALLY TOOK MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH OR CONCENSUS ON TEMPS                
THRU PD.                                                                        
CHA 046/066 044/065 050 20100                                                   
TYS 042/062 042/063 048 20100                                                   
TRI 039/060 040/063 045 20-00                                                   
OQT 042/062 042/063 048 20100=                                                  
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMEG 032015  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
111 PM CST FRI DEC 03 1999                                                      
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST              
WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOW JUST N OF              
TOP. DESPITE THE STABILITY DEPICTED BY THE 12Z BNA SOUNDING...                  
SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NASHVILLE CWA. 19Z DEWPOINTS                 
ACROSS MIDDLE TN WERE STILL LOW...30 AT CSV...48 AT BNA...ALTHOUGH              
PRECIPITATION HAS HELPED TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS.                                 
12Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWS SFC TO 600 MB LAYER AS BEING QUITE                       
DRY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT 6000 FT CEILING SHOWS THE MOIST LAYER HAS                
EXTENDED DOWNWARD. JAN-BNA CROSS SECTION USING LATEST RUC MODEL DOES            
SHOW GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER...AND BELIEVE THIS            
TO BE THE CULPRIT IN SHOWER FORMATION THIS MORNING.                             
ETA/NGM/AVN DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE 12Z CYCLES. AVN                  
APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM. NGM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ETA...BRINGING IN BEST LIFT/                
MOISTURE BEFORE 12Z SUN...WHERE ETA HOLDS OFF SEVERAL HOURS. ETA                
SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING BEST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH                       
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST. WITH WEAK 300 MB JET DYNAMICS...              
SLOWER ETA SOLUTION MAY BE BEST. SO WILL GO WITH ETA AS MODEL OF                
CHOICE THIS FORECAST.                                                           
WITH FRONT HANGING TO THE WEST...STRONG SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW            
SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH 48 HRS...AND GOOD MOISTURE FEED...BELIEVE             
AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS ARE WARRANTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.              
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY...AS FRONT FINALLY STARTS              
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEP 500 MB LOW FORMS OVER NE OK/SE KS. WILL               
MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERIOD 4 FORECAST ALONG WITH HIGHER                
POPS.                                                                           
FWC/FAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE REASONABLY CLOSE THROUGH PERIOD               
3...AND WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS IN THE UPCOMING ZFP.                  
MODELS DISSAGREE ON POPS W/ FAN VALUES MUCH HIGHER THAN FWC. WILL               
STAY BETWEEN THESE NUMBERS AND GO A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FWC PERIODS              
2-4.                                                                            
EXTENDED MODELS FINALLY SHOW FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE TN MONDAY              
EVENING...ALTHOUGH COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL.                    
BNA 54/67/51/61 5325                                                            
CSV 44/62/46/56 4214                                                            
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
08                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 031604  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
310 PM CST FRI DEC 3 1999                                                       
ANOTHER VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT            
AND SATURDAY.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ETA'S SOLUTION IS THE BEST               
OF THE THREE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND WE WILL FOLLOW IT FAIRLY                  
CLOSELY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL REFORM THIS EVENING...SOMEWHERE FROM               
NEAR CHILDRESS SOUTHWARD.  THE RED RIVER WOULD BE A LOGICAL PLACE FOR           
LOW FORMATION....GIVEN THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH             
OF AMA TO NORTH OF SPS AND NEAR TULSA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE...               
MOIST AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...ALBEIT WITH A BIT           
OF A CAP...ACCORDING TO THE RUC2 MESOSCALE MODEL. THE BEST AREA FOR             
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN                      
OKLAHOMA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD ALONG A DRY               
PUNCH THAT MOVES NORTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW.  STORM WILL FIRE IN            
THE WESTERN ZONES SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT..AND MOVE RAPIDLY                     
NORTHEAST.  WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY SATURDAY AS            
A DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO NORTH TEXAS.                                              
THE GREATEST CONCERN THAT I HAVE IS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS                
AND TORNADOES.  ETA FORECASTED WINDS ALOFT INCLUDE AN ACCELERATION OF           
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO ABOUT 75 KT AT 500 MB BY SUNRISE...RIGHT ACROSS           
OUR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.  THIS WOULD PLACE 0-6 KM SHEARS            
INTO THE 55-60 KT REALM...WHICH IS VERY STRONG STUFF.  A RELEVANT               
QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT LIFTING MECHANISMS CAN SCOOP UP SURFACE              
PARCELS TO BE INGESTED INTO THE UPDRAFTS.  IF THEY CAN, THEN THESE              
INTENSE SHEARS WOULD BE REALIZED...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF FAST-               
MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES. BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL...              
SPOTTERS MAY BE CALLED UPON LATE TONIGHT.                                       
NORTH TEXAS LIKELY WILL BE "DRY SLOTTED" SATURDAY...RESULTING IN                
SOME SUN AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.  COLDER AIR...LOW CLOUDS...AND              
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT.  SKIES SHOULD                
CLEAR SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                
MOS TEMPERATURES ARE TOO COOL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT LOOK GOOD              
OTHERWISE.  WILL FASHION POPS CLOSE TO, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS                   
VALUES...BUT CUT THEM OFF IN PERIOD THREE (SATURDAY NIGHT).                     
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION:  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS            
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                     
.FTW...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TONIGHT.                                           
DFW 61/65/39/52 3511    ACT 64/69/41/55 2400                                    
26                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 032130  tx