FXUS61 KILN 151757
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
SAT IMAGERY SHOWING POSITION OF VORT QUITE WELL JUST NW OF KDAY. 
SHOWERS SPARKING ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY...AND AN ISOLD ONE 
OR TWO OF THESE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE. HAVE 
LEFT THIS OUT ATTM BUT WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF CELLS MAINTAIN 
STRENGTH (WHICH THEY SHOULDN'T) OR BECOME STRONGER. DOUBT THAT THEY 
WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN RIGHT NOW...BUT A FEW MERGING BOUNDARIES 
COULD GIVE AN ADDED KICK. SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE SCOPE THAT I HAVE 
ABILITY TO FCST...HAVE JUST INCLUDED CB IN GROUPS FROM DAY TO ILN TO 
CMH. ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING DUE TO NIGHTFALL AND PRESENCE OF MID 
LEVEL BLOWOFF FROM CURRENT CELLS. LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH 
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE FORCING...AND TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF THE BEST 
LAPSE RATES. DID NOT INCLUDE A NEW GROUP FOR CVG TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT 
SHOULD BE FEW CU IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
ISOLD SHOWER IN HARDIN COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING LEADS TO BELIEVE 
THAT A FEW OTHER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME 
HEATING GIVING A BOOST TO INSTABILITY. H5 TROF IS IN NWRN FCST AREA 
WITH A VORT PROGGED TO BE RIGHT UNDERNEATH IT IN SERN IN BY 18Z AND 
WRN OH BY 0Z TONIGHT. WEAK RIDGE AT H8 WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO COUNTER 
THIS AS H8 THERMAL AXIS IS RIGHT UNDERNEATH H5 TROF. FOCUS ON 
CONVECTION WILL BE IN NW FCST AREA THIS MORNING AND SPREAD TO A 
DAY-CMH CORRIDOR AS H8 THERMAL TROF REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE H5 
TROF SLOWLY SLIDES EWD. LAPSE RATES IN THE SW AND SRN CWA SHOULD 
LIMIT ANY ISOLD/WIDELY SCT ACTIVITY TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND NWD. 

ON TEMPERATURES...THINGS LOOK TO BE RUNNING ON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 
MID 70S...ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. 

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004 

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SHORT WAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA WILL LIFT 
EAST NORTHEAST TODAY. APPEARS THAT LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS HAS BEEN 
KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND RADAR 
HAS BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS. WHILE ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE THE GFS IS THE 
ONLY ONE THAT HAS BEEN PICKING UP ON THE PRECIPITATION. SO WILL 
FOLLOW ALONG CLOSER TO ITS SOLUTION. HAVE UPPED POPS TO CHANCE IN 
WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE BETTER LIFT SHOULD BE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT 
CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS WEAK INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO STRAY POP UP 
SHOWERS.

AFTER THIS SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT THE REGION WILL BE IN WEST NORTHWEST 
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIVERGING ON HOW FAST THE NEXT FRONT 
APPROACHES IN PART DUE TO HANDLING OF VARIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING 
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT FORCING WILL BE 
LIMITED BUT ENOUGH FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST TO 
BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA 
LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. SO HAVE INCLUDED 
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

GENERALLY FAVORED THE COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR 
TEMPERATURES.

THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
FAST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL GO FROM A WEAK TROF TO NEUTRAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WED
AFT AND THEN TURN AROUND AND MOVE THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.  TIMING OF PRECIP AND FRONTAL POSITIONS IS
TOUGH AT THIS TIME SO WILL GO WITH 30 POPS.

TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID WEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$