AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
259 PM MDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)                                                         
MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE             
REGION.                                                                         
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
CENTROID OF UPPER HIGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM...WITH                
WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO AND                   
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WATER VAPOR                      
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME                
ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO WITH A SECONDARY PLUME NOTED ACROSS WESTERN             
UTAH ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO INDICATING THE WEAK STEERING FLOW...            
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ANCHORED TO              
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT THE SFC...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS              
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD AND                 
AIDING IN THE CONVECTION FIRING ATTM.                                           
TONIGHT...CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SOLAR               
HEATING...AND WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE                  
EVENING. WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SW AND               
CENTRAL MTS...AS UPPER HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST...KEEPING              
WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY STORMS ACROSS EASTERN            
UTAH AND NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK           
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL                
CONTINUE TO BE SLOW MOVERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN.                 
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH UPPER           
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. MID AND              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT...AND WILL GO WITH                    
SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE MTS. WITH SW STEERING FLOW...               
STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND                 
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE I-25 IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WITH              
MORE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUDS...               
HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.  -MW                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)                                               
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THEN REFORMS                 
OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLE                 
AROUND THE EDGES. MOIST PLUME FROM THE SOUTH APPEARS TO HOLD                    
TOGETHER WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE TO SUPPORT                
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORT                   
WAVES RIPPLE ACROSS UVV IS ENHANCED AND IMPROVES COVERAGE AND                   
PROBABILITIES. TIMING THESE LITTLE RIPPLES HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE                
TO BE DIFFICULT.                                                                
MODELS IN SOME AGREEEMENT WITH A BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN THE                     
EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. USED NAM TIMING TO ADJUST POPS, WINDS                 
AND TEMPS. MOISTURE HANGS IN WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY TROF              
IN THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES              
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGE REFORMS BUT MORE TO OUR               
EAST BY MONDAY. TEMPS WARM AND MOIST PLUME GETS SOME HELP FROM THE              
WESTERN TROF TO KEEP THE DIURNAL CONVECTION MACHINE GOING THROUGH               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/21                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
905 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RUC AND WATER VAPOR STLT SHOWS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH                
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE EXTREME NE GULF ALONG WITH A               
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD/ ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE/            
FROM THE GULF AND THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE WEAK TROUGHINESS                
PERSISTS FROM THE GULF TO THE ATLANTIC...WITH IT'S BROAD AXIS ABOUT             
MIDWAY THROUGH THE CWFA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE STATE               
WITH LARGE AREAS OF PCPN OVER AND OFFSHORE ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3             
OF THE FL. THE CURRENT PUBLIC ZONES GENERALLY HANDLE THIS...HOWEVER.            
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH             
ZONES WHICH NOW FOCUS ON MAINLY EVENING CONVECTION. WILL UPDATE TO              
INCLUDE ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE           
FAR SOUTH AND ALSO TO CHANGE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THESE AREAS.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND COASTAL DATA SUPPORT THE ONGOING FORECAST            
AND WILL ISSUE THE NEXT NONE BY 10 PM...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE TO                 
INCLUDE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
958 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
OLD SURFACE TROF EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL AT MID             
MORNING WITH ENE WINDS AT DAB AND SE WINDS NEAR THE CAPE. LARGE                 
SWATH OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN            
PENINSULA. A FEW PATCHES OF RAIN AND SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS C/S              
SECTIONS OF CWA BUT GENERALLY LIGHT SO FAR. RUC INDICATES 95KT JET              
MAX ALONG THE NC COAST THIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF FL IN THE RIGHT                
REAR QUAD...PROVIDING GOOD ASCENT OVER EC FL. MORNING TBW SOUNDING              
INDICATES DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR               
STILL PRESENT AND RELATIVELY COOL AT MID LEVELS. DESPITE THE HIGH               
SUN ANGLE WITH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE OCCURRING EARLIER TODAY...HEATING            
WILL BE RESTRICTED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLY RAIN. IF ANY              
AREAS MANAGE TO BREAK THROUGH CLOUDS AND GET BETTER HEATING...STORMS            
COULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. GIVEN ABOVE CONDITIONS...THE PRIMARY WX               
CONCERN EXPECTED TO BE URBAN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AREAS PLAGUED                
WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LOCATIONS WHERE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF              
RAINFALL MOVES THROUGH. MINOR EDITS TO GRIDS AND ZONES THIS MORNING.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BOUY 41009 SHOWING 4FT SEAS ALREADY THIS MORNING...MAINLY             
IN SWELL. HAVE ADJUSTED SEA HEIGHTS UP FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT            
FOR THE DIFFERENCE. THE HAZARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE               
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING FROM ANY HEAVY                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL               
AND COASTAL WATERS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GLITTO/MOSES                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
950 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT TSTMS HAVE BEEN ON THE WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER               
ANALYSIS OF 0000 UTC UPPER AIR DATA PAINTS A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT                 
STORY.  WEAK 850MB BOUNDARY EVIDENT ROUGHLY ALONG I-70, WITH 16C+               
DEW POINTS POOLED JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY.  WHILE CONVERGENCE IS                 
STILL WEAK ALONG BOUNDARY, ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO               
THE WEST/NORTHWEST.  WEAK 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT              
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS WELL.  GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTION, DIFFICULT            
TO IDENTIFY ANY RIPPLES IN UPPER FLOW IN EITHER PROFILERS/WATER                 
VAPOR LOOP, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY CLEARLY NEGATIVE FACTORS              
ALOFT.  SUSPECT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS EITHER DEVELOPING OVER OR               
MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL PROBABLY PERSIST ALL NIGHT, WITH SOME                 
SMALL TENDENCY TO FOR WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN                   
INCREASING TOWARDS DAYBREAK .   ONLY QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH TO               
EXTEND PRECIPITATION THREAT.  CLEARLY STORMS THIS EVENING HAD                   
TROUBLE REACHING HWY 400, AND GIVEN 850MB BOUNDARY, LIMITING THREAT             
TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400 SEEMS PRUDENT.  WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE            
TO AREAS NORTH OF KICT OVERNIGHT.  WILL TWEAK GRIDS AND GET UPDATE              
OUT IN A BIT. HAVE GENERALLY DISCOUNTED 0000 UTC NAM/LATEST RUC BOTH            
OF WHICH HAVE INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WINDS.            
-HOWERTON                                                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ISOLATED CHANCES THIS EVE THEN CHANCES AGAIN              
FRI NIGHT.                                                                      
THIS EVE/TONIGHT:                                                               
SATELLITE SHOWS MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPIN               
OVER CEN KS AT THIS TIME, WITH SOME ACCAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LATEST            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAP IS HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA, SO EVEN              
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL SHEAR, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF             
CU DEVELOPMENT.  COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP IN CEN KS            
THIS EVE, IF CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  SO WILL MENTION A SMALL POP              
IN CEN KS FOR THIS.  LACK OF ANY SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR LOW LEVEL               
JET CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP MAIN OVERNIGHT CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA              
ACROSS NEBRASKA.  COULD SEE ANOTHER MCS MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA              
AND COME TO KS TO DIE BY EARLY WED.                                             
WED:                                                                            
COULD SEE REMNANTS FOR ANOTHER MCS DIMINISH OR DIE ACROSS NRN KS                
EARLY WED SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT POP ALONG CEN KS BORDERS FOR THIS               
POSSIBILITY,  WITH ANOTHER MCS EXPECTED TO DIE IN SWRN KS. SEE BOTH             
THESE THESE SYSTEMS DYING BEFORE THEY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO SRN KS SO             
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THIS AREA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.  MID LEVEL             
WARMING MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS VIRTUALLY                   
KILLING ANY CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, EVEN WITH A POSSIBLE            
MCV LURKING ACROSS THE AREA.                                                    
THU-FRI:                                                                        
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT STARTING ON FRI, ALLOWING A             
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO NRN KS BY FRI.   SOME                     
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE             
WITH IT, IN PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH WITH GFS KEEPING IT A LITTLE                 
FURTHER NORTH.  WILL KEEP THIS TIME FRAME DRY FOR NOW, AS MID LEVEL             
CAP SEEMS TO HOLD EVEN WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, BUT MAY HAVE TO               
ADD POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LATER RUNS.                               
FRI NIGHT:                                                                      
RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN              
LURKING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA ACTUALLY DRIFTING INTO THE              
NRN SECTIONS OF KS BY FRI NIGHT. 850H WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE               
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS              
FRIDAY, AS RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SAGS INTO THIS AREA AS            
WELL.  ALL THIS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT SOME CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE            
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN/CEN KS DURING THIS               
TIME FRAME. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY JUST BRUSH             
CEN KS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS UT INTO NE KS BY SAT MORNING.                 
SAT-MON:                                                                        
UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BEGINS TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE            
WEEKEND, WITH STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK INTO THE                 
DAKOTAS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  MID LEVEL TEMPS AGAIN INCREASE                 
ACROSS THE PLAINS, KEEPING ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES OUT OF THE                    
FORECAST PICTURE, SO MAINLY WARM AND DRY WITH 90S FOR HIGHS AND                 
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR LOWS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    69  95  71  97 /  10  10   5   5                                
HUTCHINSON      68  96  70  98 /  10  10   5   5                                
NEWTON          69  95  70  97 /  10  10   5   5                                
ELDORADO        68  94  70  95 /  10  10   5   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  95  70  96 /  10  10   5   5                                
RUSSELL         70  97  69  98 /  10  10   5   5                                
GREAT BEND      69  96  69  99 /  10  10   5   5                                
SALINA          71  97  71  99 /  20  10   5   5                                
MCPHERSON       69  96  70  98 /  10  10   5   5                                
COFFEYVILLE     67  92  70  94 /  10  10   5   5                                
CHANUTE         68  92  70  94 /  10  10   5   5                                
IOLA            67  92  70  94 /  10  10   5   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KETCHAM/                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
950 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALF OVER THE UPR             
GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE WRN PLAINS AND TROFFING OVER SE CAN/NE                
CONUS. SFC HI PRES OVER NW ONTARIO/DRY AIR SHOWN ON THE LOCAL 00Z               
RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS BRINGING A TRANQUIL EVNG TO THE CWA. SFC DWPTS               
UNDER THE HI AND ACRS NE MN INTO THE U.P. AS LO AS THE 30S (SAW 01Z             
DWPT 37...DWPTS INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE E PER FIRE WX OBS AT                  
SENEY...DOE LAKE...SPINCICH LAKE...ELKHORN)...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT              
OF LLVL MSTR IS APRNT WITH SFC DWPTS AOA 60 AS CLOSE AS NW WI. AN               
AREA OF MID CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTOGENESIS AND A WEAK SHRTWV            
DROPPING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF IS PRESENT OVER NW WI AND CLOSE              
TO IWD. MOST OF THIS CLD APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO STAY SW OF THE WI            
BORDER...BUT THE NRN EDGE APPEARS WL IMPACT IMT-MNM. ON A SIDE                  
NOTE...A LARGE FIRE NOTED OVER ONTARIO JUST N OF LK NIPIGON. SMOKE              
PLUME HAS DRIFTED SSEWD INTO ERN LK SUP AND MIGHT MOVE OVER THE ERN             
CWA OVERNGT.                                                                    
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/IMPACT ON TEMPS.                         
LATEST RUC H7 RH FCST SHOWS BAND OF HIER RH DRIFTING SEWD ALG THE WI            
BORDER...CONSISTENT WITH STLT TRENDS...BEFORE SINKING TO THE S LATER            
AT NGT ONCE SFC HI CENTER TO THE NW PROGGED TO BLD OVER THE FA AND              
AXIS OF H7-5 FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE S. WL GO WITH                  
SCT-BKN AC ALG THE WI BORDER THRU THIS EVNG...THEN MOCLR. ALTHOUGH              
THE ARRIVAL OF THE HI CENTER LATER AT NGT WL TEND TO PUSH THE HIER              
LLVL MSTR TO THE S...WL BUMP UP FCST LO TEMPS A BIT OVER THE WI                 
BORDER  A BIT TO REFLECT THE HIER DWPTS/SCT-BKN CLDS THRU MIDNGT AND            
FCST HIER PWAT THRU 12Z. BUT WL ADJUST LO TEMPS DOWN OVER THE                   
INTERIOR ERN ZNS WHERE AXIS OF DRIER AIR (LOWER DWPTS/PWAT UNDER 0.5            
INCH) WL BE OVHD WHEN HI CENTER/LGT WINDS ARRIVE LATE. PUSHED LOWS              
INTO THE UPR 30S OVER INTERIOR LUCE COUNTY...WHERE SOME FROST                   
PROBABLY NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DESPITE SHORT NGT.                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
RIDGE AXIS COMES ACROSS ON THU ACCORDING TO THE NAM. THE NAM ALSO               
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE WED NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE             
CWA WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WED NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON             
THE I300-I315K SURFACES AND THIS WOULD BE WITH A WARM FRONT. THE                
MOISTURE ON THESE SURFACES MOVES EAST ON THU. THERE COULD BE A BREAK            
IN THE RAIN AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT EFFECT OF NEXT             
SHORTWAVE THAT I WILL TALK ABOUT NEXT COMES IN BY THU EVENING AND               
TIMING OF THESE IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WITH THE UPPER             
RIDGE IN THE AREA...COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.                 
EASIEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS AT THIS POINT IS TO BROADBRUSH AND PUT               
LOW CHANCE POPS ON THU AND FRI FOR THE CWA.                                     
NAM ALSO SHOWING A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DIGGING SE AND                  
COMBINING WITH THE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST TO CREATE A STRONG                  
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THAT FLATTENS THE RIDGE ON FRI.              
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE CWA ON FRI AND WILL PUSH A COLD               
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE RETURNS THU             
NIGHT AND FRI. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST FOR THU            
NIGHT AND FRI AND THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY CLEAR THINGS OUT FRI NIGHT               
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WHICH WAS IN THE EARLIER FORECASTS. NOT BUYING              
THE STRONGER AND FASTER NAM SOLUTION WITH THIS TROUGH FLATTENING THE            
RIDGE AS MUCH AND BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION                 
BETTER WHICH IS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND DOES NOT BRING AS COLD OF             
AIR IN. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE GIVEN HOW STRONG THE RIDGE               
HAS BEEN AND FEEL THE NAM IS OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE                  
SHORTWAVE AND UNDERDONE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE.                     
BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TOO COLD AND USED 850 MB TEMPERATURES MIXED TO             
THE SFC FOR HIGHS. FOR TONIGHT...IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING                      
CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO                
DROP TO THE 40S. ONLY THING GOING AGAINST IT IS THE NIGHT IS SHORT.             
LIKED THE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THERE AND DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGE TO              
THE FORECAST ON THAT.                                                           
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A STRONG 500 MB                
RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHING            
ON THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A BELT             
OF WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS SHORTWAVE IN SOUTH                 
CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT WITH UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGING MOVING BACK IN FOR SUN. A SHORTWAVE THEN EJECTS OUT OF THE              
WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND AFFECTS THE AREA ON MON. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES             
SUPPORT THIS IDEA AND GFS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY ARE NOT TOO NOISY.                
WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. STILL LOOKS LIKE                
WARM FRONT WILL COME THROUGH SUN NIGHT. GFS GENERATED SOME QPF WITH             
ITS PASSAGE IN EARLIER RUNS...NOW IT IS DRY. WILL NOT REMOVE POPS               
FROM SUN NIGHT YET SINCE IT SEEMS THAT WHEN WE HAVE WARM FRONTS COME            
THROUGH...IT ENDS UP PRECIPITATING WELL BEFORE THE MODELS INDICATE.             
ALSO WANT TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST SINCE HAD LOW             
CHANCE POPS IN THERE YESTERDAY. AFTER THE WARM FRONT GOES                       
THROUGH...IT MOVES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR BASED ON 1000-500 MB                  
THICKNESS PACKING FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS AND STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA            
THROUGH TUE. THICKNESS VALUES GET UP ABOVE 579 DM WHICH COULD                   
INDICATE A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...SO KEPT MON AND TUE DRY EVEN WITH THE            
SHORTWAVE IN THE AREA. THINK THE RIDGE WILL PREDOMINATE. WILL BE                
VERY WARM ON BOTH OF THOSE DAYS AND THINK WILL SEE PLENTY OF                    
SUNSHINE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO 20-23C              
AND THIS WOULD GIVE ME TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH PLENTY OF               
SUNSHINE. WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS.                 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE             
MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.                                             
MICHELS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1140 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND LOOKS TO EXTEND FROM THE                  
STRAITS OF MACKINAC SW TO GREEN BAY. THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH              
EXTENDING FROM THE SAGINAW BAY AREA SSW TOWARD BATTLE CREEK AND                 
KALAMAZOO. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AROUND                
ALMA AND ST JOHNS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY COME AROUND TO THE NW BEHIND              
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL REALLY LIMIT SURFACE CONVERGENCE              
ONCE THE MAIN FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.                                    
SURFACE INSTABILITY IS PRETTY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS              
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS ARE ONLY AROUND 60. A            
MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING... AND LATEST RUC... HAS CAPES CLIMBING TO            
ONLY ABOUT 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS MAINLY IN THE FAR SERN             
CWFA AND LATE IN THE DAY. THE LATEST ETA IS STRUGGLING WITH LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HAS DEW POINTS HITTING 70 THIS AFTERNOON WITH                
CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO HIGH.                          
SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN ACTUALLY               
GENERATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... BUT ATTM THINGS ARE               
NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD. THERE'S A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH NOW... SO             
WE'LL ACTUALLY HAVE NVA AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS GOING THROUGH. THE              
MID LEVELS DO COOL OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... WITH H7 TEMPS                   
DROPPING FROM 8C TO 4C AND CONSIDERABLE DRYING. THIS GIVES US A                 
WINDOW OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.              
BOTTOM LINE... SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. LOOKS TO BE LIMITED             
TO THE SE CWFA AROUND LAN AND JXN BETWEEN 2 PM AND 6 PM. THIS IS                
WHERE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN ACTUALLY BE GENERATED. IN FACT WE            
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS COMPLETELY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE CWFA AS              
NNW FLOW OFF THE LAKE DEVELOPS.                                                 
LATEST RUC SHOWS 925 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE              
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.              
HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WHITEHALL            
TO MANISTEE. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD LATER BUT WE'LL             
WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NRN PART OF THE LAKE.                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT               
FOR WHITEHALL TO MANISTEE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z WV IMAGERY/H5 RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING H5 TROFS JUST OFF WEST COAST             
AND OVER EASTERN U.S. WITH THE EASTERN AXIS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.             
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE MIDDLE U.S. FROM THE DESERT                 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF             
MCS OVERNIGHT IN NE MT/NW ND STILL FIRING ALONG ND/SD BORDER. CLOSER            
TO HOME... INL SOUNDING SHOWS VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY                   
UP...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS IT IS RIGHT UNDER A SFC RIDGE EXTENDING               
DOWN FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA.                                                     
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE AFTERNOON TEMPS...                      
INL SOUNDING SHOWS +14C H85 TEMPS MIXING DOWN TO +27C/82F AT THE                
SURFACE. AS THIS SOUNDING IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS MOVING               
INTO THE REGION... THIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE INLAND LOCATIONS.              
HOWEVER...NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S COOL FRONT WILL TEMPER            
THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND IN            
THE EAST. LOOKS LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOULD HOLD UP QUITE                 
FINE. WILL DECREASE THE CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS AS INL                         
SOUNDING/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE BONE DRY AND SHOULD STAY CLEAR THROUGH            
THE NIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE KEEPS THINGS DRY. NRLY/NERLY            
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE              
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...BECOMING SERLY OVER THE WRN UP ON THE BACK               
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES NECESSARY.                             
WOOD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DRIFT NEARLY ON TOP OF UPR MI LATER TONIGHT.              
WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEWPOINTS AS LOW AS UPR 30S ALONG WITH LOWER            
PWAT MIN AXIS AFFECTING AREA MAY LEAD TO SOME READINGS FALLING                  
TOWARD 40F AWAY FM LAKES...BUT ONE OF THE SHORTEST NIGHTS OF YEAR               
WILL WORK AGAINST ADDITIONAL COOLING.                                           
WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DRIFT SE WHILE RETURN                
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H85-H7 TAKES SHAPE OVR N MS RIVER                
VALLEY INTO FAR W FRINGES OF UPR LAKES. JUST SHOWED INCREASE IN                 
CLOUDS OVR W HALF OF CWA ON WED. NAM AND GFS DIFFER TO EXTENT OF                
PCPN ON WED NIGHT AS ELEVATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT INTO N WI/W             
UPR MI WITH NAM NOT SHOWING ANY PCPN UNTIL THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS IDEA            
BROUGHT FORTH BY GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS/TS COULD               
DEVELOP OVR MN INTO NW WI/W UPR MI AFT MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO                  
SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 JET NOSING              
INTO THE REGION. AREA IS ALSO ON FRINGE OF BULGE OF VERY WARM H85               
TEMPS (AOA +20C) WHICH GIVES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.0C/KM. NOT             
SURE HOW MUCH CREDENCE TO GIVE CONVECTIVE SHORTWAVE GFS/CANADIAN                
SHOWS BY 12Z THU. EVEN IF THAT SOLN DOES NOT VERIFY...KEPT SMALL                
CHANCES IN FOR W THIRD OF CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO BETTER                        
THERMODYNAMICS.                                                                 
THU...TRICKY FOR BOTH PCPN CHANCES AND MAX TEMPS. ANY EARLY MORNING             
CONVECTION MAY FADE QUICKLY AS OVERALL VERY WARM/CAPPED ATMOSPHERE              
REBUILDS WITH H7 TEMPS SURGING TO +14C AND H85 TEMPS RISING TO                  
AROUND +22C BY AFTN OFF GFS/NAM/UKMET. TWEAKED POPS TO SHOW BEST                
CHANCES FOR WEST HALF CWA WHICH CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO BETTER                
TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION. DO NOT EXPECT SIG CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST               
INTO AFTN. BASED ON A COMPROMISE BTWN FULL SUNSHINE AND LITTLE                  
SUNSHINE (BOTH UNLIKELY) CAME UP WITH MAX TEMPS INTO LWR 90S FOR THU            
AFTN OVR W HALF...WITH MID 80S AWAY FM LK MI OVR E HALF. IF S FLOW              
IS STRONG ENOUGH...MID 90S AT DOWNSLOPING LOCATIONS FM ONTONAGON TO             
MARQUETTE WOULD BE LIKELY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MID 90S IF NAM IS RIGHT            
AND NO CLOUDS ARE AROUND TO START DAY.                                          
THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...BEST CHANCES OF PCPN OCCUR LATE THU NIGHT            
INTO FRI AS SFC/H85 FRONT SAGS INTO UPR MI IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE             
OVR MANITOBA/ONTARIO HELPING TO LOWER HEIGHTS. BEST MOISTURE POOLING            
ALONG BOUNDARY OVR S HALF OF CWA AND THIS IS WHERE HIGHER POPS (50)             
WERE PLACED. LATEST GFS AGREES WELL WITH CANADIAN AND INDICATES                 
FRONT/PCPN CLEARS AREA BY LATE FRI EVENING. QUICKER TREND IN ENDING             
PCPN SHOWS UP IN LAST FEW RUNS AS WELL. ONLY KEPT SHRA/TS IN FOR                
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE TO MENOMINEE AFT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE WENT              
WITH NO WX.                                                                     
SAT/SUN/MON...WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS UPR                  
LAKES. RETURN FLOW BEGINS AS EARLY AS SUN AFTN...BUT PCPN SHOULD                
HOLD OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT AS SFC/H85 WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK N ACROSS             
UPR LAKES. CAPPING EVIDENT FOR MON AS H7 TEMPS RISE TO +12C. H85                
TEMPS RISE AS WELL...BACK TOWARD +22C. ANOTHER HOT DAY LOOKS IN                 
OFFING. NO CHANGES HERE WITH MAX TEMPS FCST IN THE UPR 80S WHICH IS             
WELL ABOVE LATEST EXTENDED GFS MOS.                                             
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
JLA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1045 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN RATHER QUITE                 
NICELY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS MORNING. THE DEVELOPMENT WAS                   
OCCURRING ON/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT H8-H7 THETA-E GRADIENT...IN A              
DRY SLOT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME HELP ALOFT WITH            
SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WAVE WILL                    
CONTINUE TO OUR E THIS MORNING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR SPILLING IN            
FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINTS WERE HOLDING IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS                 
WHITEFISH BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE REAL ONSET OF THE COLD            
AND DRY PUSH. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME MARINE FOG AND STRATUS (SEEN ON             
EARLY VIS IMAGERY) TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER. EXPECT THIS             
TO ERODE AWAY BY NOON. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT/SFC                
CONVERGENCE RUNNING JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN LATEST HI RESOLUTION                 
MODEL DEPICTIONS...BUT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SE CWA BY 19Z OR SO.                
MODIFYING THE 12Z APX SOUNDING WITH A VERY GENEROUS 85/62 PARCEL                
YIELDS 1000J/KG CAPE WITH WET BULBS DOWN TO 10.1 KFT. 0-6KM BULK                
SHEAR VALUES RANGE IN THE 15-20KT RANGE...LESS THAN DESIRABLE FOR               
STORM ORGANIZATION...THEREFORE...AM JUST EXPECTING SCATTERED AND                
WEAK GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE             
MUCH MORE STABLE AIR AND DEEP LAYER H8-H5 SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES THE              
AREA.                                                                           
LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT TOO...AS H9-H8            
WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS...OF WHICH WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO                 
20-25KT TO THE SFC WITH MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND. SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD...BUT WILL ADD IN THE REMAINDER OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES.                                             
UPDATE OUT AROUND 11 AM.  SMD                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                           
DISCUSSION...FORECAST PERIODS WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING IN             
THE CENTRAL US...AND TROFFING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THE                      
MOMENT...THAT TROFFING CONSISTS OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE                   
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE LAKES REGION            
TODAY/TONIGHT WILL ACT OPEN UP THE LOW AND RE-ESTABLISH IT/S                    
CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES. SAID SHORTWAVES WILL DRIVE A COLD               
FRONT...NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SUPERIOR...THRU THE FORECAST AREA             
TODAY. ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WX THREAT IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AHEAD               
OF/ALONG THE FRONT. THUS PRECIP CHANCES TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.             
MODELS...NO DIFFERENCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE NOTED.                              
TODAY...GIVEN FRONT WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY                        
AFTERNOON...IT/S DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION                  
FIRING ALONG IT BEFORE IT/S OUT OF THE PICTURE. THUS MAIN FOCUS IS              
ON POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING ELEVATED GETTING GOING IN THE REMAINING               
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL THE MODELS...GFS/NAM/RUC AND EVEN THE NGM...               
GENERATE AT LEAST TWO-TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SCT                      
CONVECTION DEVELOP...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AT TOP OF 750MB MOIST               
LAYER DESTABILIZES THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION                
CENTERED AT 650MB WHEN COMPARING 00Z GRB TO KINL RAOBS. BUT IT/S                
DIFFICULT SEEING ANYTHING ESPECIALLY WIDESPREAD FOR NOW. MODELS ARE             
TRYING TO BRING A WELL-DEFINED MCV ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...              
BUT SATELLITE TRENDS UPSTREAM DO NOT SUPPORT A FEATURE THIS STRONG.             
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS UP TO THE VERY LAST MINUTE...AS OF NOW DO             
NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCY POPS FOR THE MORNING...                
LINGERING INTO VERY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SE. WITH CONVECTION                  
ELEVATED AND ONLY 500-750J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK OFF OF...SVR APPEARS              
UNLIKELY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 70S NW...TO MID 80S               
SOUTH AND EAST. BY MID AFTERNOON...A DEEP MIXED LAYER COMBINED WITH             
COLD ADVECTION AND 950MB WINDS OF 25-30KT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO                
PERHAPS EVEN WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST                
WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE             
HOISTED FOR SOME OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS.                                       
TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANY FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE WELL            
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT MOVING             
THRU METRO DETROIT AT 00Z. WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE EVENING            
WITH 950MB WINDS 25-35KT AND COLD ADVECTION/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM...BUT             
NO NEED TO FOR ANY EVENING PRECIP. 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL            
MOVE TO SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING... LAKE HURON BY WED                      
EVENING...AND THE EASTERN LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS WILL BE            
SLOWLY AND STEADILY BUILDING ALOFT THRU THESE PERIODS...WITH                    
RESULTING DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND A BONE-DRY AIRMASS. 850-500MB RH                  
LEVELS WILL BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...THOUGH STARTING TO REBOUND                
JUST A BIT LATE WED NIGHT AS RETURN FLOW GETS ORGANIZED INTO THE NW             
LAKES REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NEGLIGIBLE CU POTENTIAL FOR                  
WEDNESDAY. SO ALL 3 PERIODS SHOULD BE BASICALLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR              
SOME WARM ADVECTION/CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF CIRRUS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT. MAX TEMPS WED LOOK COMFORTABLE...70S MOST EVERYWHERE. WED                
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO NIGHTS...WITH NEGLIGIBLE WINDS            
COMPARED TO TONIGHT. UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT...LOW 40S TO                
NEAR 50 WED NIGHT...BUT WITH A FEW OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS REACHING             
THE UPPER 30S.                                                                  
THURSDAY...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL                
DEVELOP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW                   
INITIALLY NOT MOIST...WITH BETTER SUPPORT FOR PRECIP CLOSER TO                  
UPSTREAM FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS ONLY APPROACHING UPPER MS VALLEY/FAR              
WESTERN SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY                      
FORECAST...THOUGH WITH A WEE BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.            
MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S LOOKS GOOD.                               
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS...OTHER THAN TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT                
CHANCE IN EASTERN UPPER THU NIGHT PER COORD WITH MQT.                           
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
900 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
PRECIP CHANCES SLIM TONIGHT WITH GENERAL RIDGING EXCEPT FOR                     
WEST..BUT MAIN LAYER WARM ADVECTION ACCORDING TO 00Z RUC OVER NW MN.            
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN WEST AND FAR SOUTH BUT ONLY 20 PCT.                 
TAKING A LOOK AT THE WARMING FOR WED NIGHT AND THU..SEEMS LIKE                  
FORECAST 850 TEMPS AND 1000-500 THICKNESS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME MID             
90S PARTS OF SOUTH. WILL OF COURSE DEPEND GREATLY ON POSSIBLE                   
CONVECTION WED NIGHT..BUT PRETTY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVING IN FOR             
THURSDAY POSSIBLY CAPPING OFF CONVECTION FOR MOST OF DAY. WILL RAISE            
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVER SOUTH.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
313 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)                                 
A PERSISTENT NELY FLOW THROUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE           
CONTINUE FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. PWATS HAVE DROPPED           
TO NEAR ONE INCH IN THE WAKE OF A VORT TROUGH PULLING E ACROSS AL/GA.           
E COAST MEAN TROUGH POSITION FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE AS THE              
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN THE WRN PLAINS BEGINS TO EXPAND/MOVE E              
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED EVENING TSRA IN NERN PORTIONS OF               
CWFA PER 18Z RUC FORECAST. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD IN THE               
LOW TO MIDDLE 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY BEGIN                   
CREEPING UPWARD AS WILL THE OVERALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CYCLE. PLENTY           
OF HAZY SKIES WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE DOCKET AS WIND FIELDS THROUGH             
10K FEET STAY QUITE LIGHT.                                                      
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)                                         
MID LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THURSDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS          
NERN OKLAHOMA. THE E COAST TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN GIVING US THE SUNNY             
DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS ALSO SHIFTS EWD AND WILL EXTEND ALONG THE OUTER          
CAROLINA BANKS INTO FLORIDA. THE GFS INDICATES AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING        
INTO THE NERN GULF AND THEN WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY INTO                
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE ONLY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE AN                
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN             
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. ALONG WITH PW'S INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7         
INCHES ALONG THE COAST...WILL INCREASE POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. BY LATE            
FRIDAY THE GFS WOBBLES A 500 MB LOW BACK OVER NORTH FLORIDA BUT                 
QUICKLY FILLS THE LOW ON SUNDAY AND THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.             
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO               
VALLEY AGAIN. GFS INDICATES INCREASED PW'S(1.5 TO 1.6 RANGE) THROUGH            
THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECT THERE            
WILL BE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO WARRANT 20 TO 30 POPS WITH THE DIURNAL             
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. OUR COOL                 
NIGHTS WILL COME TO AN END AS MAV GUIDANCE BRINGS OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS           
INTO THE MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.(15)          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE BEST FORECAST FOR GROUND SENSIBLE TERMINAL              
VISIBILITIES WITH HAZY CONDITIONS ALOFT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.              
LOOK FOR PATCHY MVFR FOG TO MIX WITH THE HAZE FROM 09-13Z WITH SOME             
LOCATIONS(MAINLY KGWO) DROPPING BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...             
A WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN 35-4500 FEET SHOULD                
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       66  93  68  95 /  10   0   0  10                                  
MERIDIAN      64  93  66  95 /  10   0   0  10                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/15                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1138 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE #3...                                                                   
HAD TO BACK OFF MY OPTIMISM A BIT.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A            
LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. HAD TO PUT A FEW SCATTERED             
SHOWERS OVER CHAUTAUQUA...MONROE...WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA                    
COUNTIES WHERE I TOOK IT OUT EARLIER.                                           
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE #2...                                                                   
THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED FOR MANY HOURS HAS                 
DISSIPATED EVEN MORE THAN DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE. WE HAVE              
HAD TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BUT WILL STILL LEAVE A            
CHANCE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 40 TO 60            
POPS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT               
PERIOD. THE ONLY LIGHTNING LEFT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OTTAWA                
RIVER MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF ALL ZONES BUT IT            
IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS.                     
ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SO            
WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. ALMOST              
NO LIGHTNING STRIKES LEFT AND IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE IS             
DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL LOWER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE                  
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO 40 POPS AND TAKE OUT THE LIGHTNING               
THREAT.                                                                         
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN             
WILL BRING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY               
TONIGHT. WILL GO CLOSER TO MET MOS WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT                
MOVES THROUGH...THEN DROP BACK TO SCATTERED SHRA EARLY OVERNIGHT.               
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING              
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS                 
BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINT POOLING               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                             
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WED                
NIGHT'S LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER            
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH               
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE              
REGION.                                                                         
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SAT/SAT            
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/AND BEYOND)...                       
SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONT WILL ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER                 
AIR...THEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES              
AND BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN JET FAR TO THE NORTH AND            
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP.                                                
THE STAGE IS DEFINITELY BEING SET FOR VERY WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS            
A BROAD BASED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE JET WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR             
NORTH SO SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.                                   
ENSEMBLE MODELS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE            
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE H5 RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE TEMPS AND                
POSITION OF THE UNDERLYING H8 PARAMETERS. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...             
WHILE H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 17-19 C. AGAIN...1 STD ABOVE NORMAL.                
AS A RESULT...SFC MAX TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BE IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.             
ALONG WITH THE HEAT...PW'S ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE                  
NORMAL FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY SO GENERALLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN              
BE INFERRED AS WELL.                                                            
THE WEEK OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY TODAYS CPC 6 TO             
10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP FORECASTS WHICH BOTH INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMP DEPARTURES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CPC                   
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK.               
IN SHORT...NEXT WEEK HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING VERY WARM...               
AND POSSIBLY VERY HUMID AS WELL. ENJOY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION UPDATE...                                                             
THE INITIAL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THE               
FRONT AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE...AM NOW EXPECTING                
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR REAL CONVECTION.            
THE ONLY AREA THAT IS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO. A                  
SECONDARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE H8 THERMAL PACKING...IS MAKING            
ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CONVECTION IS OCCURING ALONG                
THIS BOUNDARY AND THE RUC40 IS FORECASTING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO HOLD             
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT SO              
WILL NOT ADD TO THE ART TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE THE                
AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE CONVECTION PERSIST.                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY               
WITH CIG FREE/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON.                 
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATES...SAGE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HIBBERT                                                            
LONG ERM...HIBBERT/RSH                                                          
AVIATION UPDATE...RSH                                                           
NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
938 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.UPDATE #2...                                                                   
THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE FOLLOWED FOR MANY HOURS HAS                 
DISSIPATED EVEN MORE THAN DESCRIBED IN THE EARLIER UPDATE. WE HAVE              
HAD TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS FOR MOST AREAS BUT WILL STILL LEAVE A            
CHANCE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO UNTIL MIDNIGHT AND 40 TO 60            
POPS FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT               
PERIOD. THE ONLY LIGHTNING LEFT IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE OTTAWA                
RIVER MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF ALL ZONES BUT IT            
IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS.                     
ONE MORE VORT LOBE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SO            
WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE OUT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT                     
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND. ALMOST              
NO LIGHTNING STRIKES LEFT AND IT APPEARS THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE IS             
DECREASING AS WELL. WE WILL LOWER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND THE                  
WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO 40 POPS AND TAKE OUT THE LIGHTNING               
THREAT.                                                                         
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW IN ITS ENTIRETY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN             
WILL BRING CONVECTIVE PRECIP TO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND EARLY               
TONIGHT. WILL GO CLOSER TO MET MOS WITH LIKELY POPS AS THE FRONT                
MOVES THROUGH...THEN DROP BACK TO SCATTERED SHRA EARLY OVERNIGHT.               
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING              
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS                 
BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEWPOINT POOLING               
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                                                             
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WED                
NIGHT'S LOWS DROPPING TO THE MID TO LOWER 40S OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER            
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH               
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE              
REGION.                                                                         
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON SAT/SAT            
NGT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/AND BEYOND)...                       
SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONT WILL ONLY GIVE A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER                 
AIR...THEN A STRENGTHENING RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES              
AND BRINGS INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEK.                
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH THE NORTHERN JET FAR TO THE NORTH AND            
SUPPRESS MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIP.                                                
THE STAGE IS DEFINITELY BEING SET FOR VERY WARM WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS            
A BROAD BASED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE             
COUNTRY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE JET WILL BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR             
NORTH SO SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE.                                   
ENSEMBLE MODELS THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE            
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE H5 RIDGE...ALONG WITH THE TEMPS AND                
POSITION OF THE UNDERLYING H8 PARAMETERS. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE                    
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...             
WHILE H8 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 17-19 C. AGAIN...1 STD ABOVE NORMAL.                
AS A RESULT...SFC MAX TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO BE IN THE MID TO                
UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE.             
ALONG WITH THE HEAT...PW'S ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 1 STD ABOVE                  
NORMAL FOR TUES THROUGH THURSDAY SO GENERALLY HUMID CONDITIONS CAN              
BE INFERRED AS WELL.                                                            
THE WEEK OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY TODAYS CPC 6 TO             
10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP FORECASTS WHICH BOTH INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMP DEPARTURES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CPC                   
FORECASTS ALSO SUGGEST BELOW NORMAL AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR THE WEEK.               
IN SHORT...NEXT WEEK HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING VERY WARM...               
AND POSSIBLY VERY HUMID AS WELL. ENJOY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION UPDATE...                                                             
THE INITIAL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                
DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE HISTORY OF THE               
FRONT AND THE NOCTURNAL TIMING OF ITS PASSAGE...AM NOW EXPECTING                
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR REAL CONVECTION.            
THE ONLY AREA THAT IS OF CONCERN WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO. A                  
SECONDARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE H8 THERMAL PACKING...IS MAKING            
ITS WAY SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CONVECTION IS OCCURING ALONG                
THIS BOUNDARY AND THE RUC40 IS FORECASTING FOR THE ACTIVITY TO HOLD             
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE BORDER. I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT SO              
WILL NOT ADD TO THE ART TAF AT THIS POINT...BUT THIS WILL BE THE                
AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED SHOULD THE CONVECTION PERSIST.                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY               
WITH CIG FREE/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM MID-LATE MORNING ON.                 
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATES...SAGE                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HIBBERT                                                            
LONG ERM...HIBBERT/RSH                                                          
AVIATION UPDATE...RSH                                                           
NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A RAPID WARMUP. UPPER LOW                 
CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO                 
NUDGE EAST BASED ON MESOETA AND RUC CONSENSUS. GSO SNDG STILL SHOWS             
ENOUGH MSTR TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS                     
AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND -3 IN THE TRIAD AS COLD POOL             
REMAINS ALOFT. LIMITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS WEST TO              
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. WILL                
UPDATE FORECAST TO THROW IN ISOLD PRECIP OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND               
WESTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP ACTIVITY IS                     
ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OR COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN LACK OF              
DEEP MSTR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE EAST. IF SHOWER AND                    
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THIS                    
AFTERNOON IT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE TIME OF MAX HEATING AFTER 2 TO            
3 PM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                    
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT REQUIRED TO SHORT TERM FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL             
BE CHARACTERIZED MAINLY BY WARMING TREND TODAY INTO WED THEN SLIGHT             
COOL DOWN FOR THU.                                                              
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER REGION EARLY TODAY DIMINISHES WITH              
WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH IN VICINITY BY 00Z WED. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH            
H5 SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION IN             
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...MAY NOT BE ENOUGH              
MOISTURE TO INITIATE/SUSTAIN CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE WEST            
LESS THAN 20% FOR NOW AND LET DAY CREW ANALYZE 12Z UPPER AIR AND                
ASSESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS TODAY 3-5 DEGREES WARMER THAN            
MON MAX TEMPS.                                                                  
TONIGHT...WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE BUT AIRMASS TOO                 
STABLE AND MOISTURE LIMITED. WILL CONTINUE POPS LESS THAN 20%. MIN              
TEMPS 61-65.                                                                    
WED/WED NIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES/CROSSES REGION MAINLY AFTER            
18Z. DEEP W-NW FLOW PROCEEDING FRONT WILL LIMIT/DETER MOISTURE                  
TRANSPORT INTO REGION. MOS POPS AOB 20%. HOWEVER...FRONT                        
ENTERS/CROSSES REGION DURING MAX HEATING AND 850-500MB LAPSE RATES              
BETWEEN 6-6.5 C/KM. THUS WILL MAINTAIN 30% POPS ACROSS AREA...MAINLY            
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW...AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SE.             
NO CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS WED (87-91) AT THIS TIME.                                
THU...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTI-CYCLONIC. IN ADDITION...                      
SURFACE-850 NE FLOW WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO AREA. THUS MAX TEMPS            
SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED HIGH TEMPS. MOS GUIDANCE                  
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAX TEMP FORECAST. LEANED MORE TOWARD LOW LEVEL            
THICKNESS/MAX TEMP SCHEME. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL                 
CONFLUENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SE               
COUNTIES. REMAINDER OF REGION SHOULD BE DRY                                     
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL                
RIDGING SCENARIO THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED A FEW DAYS AGO. IF GFS                  
SCENARIO REALIZED...CENTRAL NC WILL BE WETTER AND COOLER THAN                   
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER CONSENSUS HAS LEANED MORE TOWARD                    
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THUS...KEPT EXTENDED DRY BUT DID LOWER MAX             
TEMPS FRI-SUN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH CROSSOVER VALUE WILL KEEP FOG MARGINAL (VFR/MVFR) THIS                     
MORNING...DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE...STAGNANT AIRMASS.             
OTHERWISE...UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE BACK EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST            
AREA...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL BROKEN MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE               
DAY. LEE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS THUS EXPECT WINDS            
THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PREDOMINANTLY SW BUT LIGHT.  ISOLATED SHRA                 
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ALONG THE TROUGH...HOWEVER                  
PROBABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JO                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1000 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SHOWERS ARE FINALLY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH                      
COVERAGE IS NOT THAT HIGH. EVENING SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A CAP                  
ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST WILL ERODE THIS                
SOMEWHAT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL OHIO WILL HAVE                   
THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE BEST                    
CHANCE OF GETTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LOWERED POPS ELSEWHERE                
AS WELL AS REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER AND ADJUSTING PRECIPITATION              
TIMING. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE              
FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE COOLING WILL BE DELAYED. SO GENERALLY RAISED                
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 749 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                           
RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN                     
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE                     
EXTENDS INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF DETROIT. THIS                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS                    
LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WITH LOSS OF HEATING. APPEARS                  
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE COLUMBUS                    
TERMINALS. AT OTHER TAF SITES THERE MAY JUST BE A BRIEF SHOWER IF               
ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT               
IN CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE                   
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
749 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN                     
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS LINE                     
EXTENDS INTO A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER JUST SOUTH OF DETROIT. THIS                 
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY IS                    
LIMITED AND SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WITH LOSS OF HEATING. APPEARS                  
THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR THE COLUMBUS                    
TERMINALS. AT OTHER TAF SITES THERE MAY JUST BE A BRIEF SHOWER IF               
ANY PRECIPITATION. DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT               
IN CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE                   
FORECAST PERIOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WERE ADVANCING INTO NW OHIO IN ADVANCE OF              
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON            
HEATING SO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO            
SPARSE TO WARRANT MORE THAN A CB AT THIS TIME...SO WILL HANDLE WITH             
AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED LATER.                                                     
ETA AND GFS TIME/HEIGHT PROFILES SHOW VERY DRY AIR WORKING IN BEHIND            
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AT 5 TO            
10 KTS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
848 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG E COAST...WITH RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER ROCKY               
MTS. SURFACE COLD FRONT LOCATED BETWEEN UPPER AND LOWER GREAT                   
LAKES...WITH RIDGE IN OH/TN VALLEYS. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL                     
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CAPES DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS                   
EVENING...AND EXPECT ISOLATED ACITIVY TO END BY UPDATE. WILL DROP               
MENTION OF PRECIP. SKY COVER RATHER MEAGER...BUT RUC KEEPS WIND UP              
FROM SW AT AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS...SO WILL LEAVE FOG MENTION LIMITED              
TO NC MTS VALLEYS AS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPERATURES AND DEW                  
POINTS GENERALLY RUNNING CLOSE TO 18Z MAV GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST...AND WILL LEAVE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ALONE IN THIS                   
UPDATE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
UPPER LOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND LIFT SLOWLY TO THE                
NORTHEAST. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG CAPES IN               
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE HASN/T BEEN MUCH LLVL CONVERGENCE TO SPEAK OF              
TODAY AS LLVL FLOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS HAS BEEN OUT OF THE WEST.             
YOU NEED TO GET DOWN INTO THE MIDLANDS...MORE DIRECTLY UNDER THE H5             
TROF...BEFORE THERE IS MUCH MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE DOWN LOW. THAT            
SAID...THE INSTABILITY IS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SCT TSTMS EARLY THIS             
EVENING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WL NOT CARRY SCT WORDING IN            
THE MTNS AS THERE IS AN INCREASING MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE BACK              
SIDE OF THE TROF -- EVIDENT ON THE 1200 UTC NASHVILLE SOUNDING --               
THAT ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WL ONCE              
AGAIN CARRY AREAS OF DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE NC MTNS.                           
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING DRIER THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY                
AS UPPER WAVE IS NOW OPEN AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG THE COAST.              
CWFA TO COME UNDER PRETTY DECENT NW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BACKSIDE               
OF UPPER TROUGH...ALLOWING A COOL FRONT FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST                 
ACRS THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HAVE TIMED MORNING                    
PCPN CHANCES IN THE NW AND SPREAD LOW CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST                    
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME                  
LIFT ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AND DEVELOP                     
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. A STABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ON DEVELOPING               
NE FLOW AND SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS             
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AND LEANING TOWARD A MOSTLY CAPPED                     
ATMOSPHERE AT THIS POINT.                                                       
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                   
IT IS DEBATABLE HOW MUCH OF A HANDLE 12Z GFS HAS ON EVOLUTION                   
OF UPPER PATTERN...CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH                      
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN THE 12Z NAM HAS SOME EASTERLY FLOW                    
INTO FRIDAY...SO LITTLE HARM IN CONTINUING SOME SILENT 20 PERCENT               
DIURNAL POP IN THE NC MTNS FRIDAY.                                              
00Z GFS IS A DECENT ENUF COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE                
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS FOR DAYS 4-7. EXPECT LINGERING WEAKNESS                  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WEEKEND...BUT WITH A WESTWARD                      
DRIFT...EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING BUILDING              
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALL IN ALL...PATTERN DOES             
NOT SEEM TO SUPPORT MORE THAN CLIMO...MAINLY DIURNAL POPS THIS                  
WEEKEND...WITH A DIP TO BELOW NORMAL CHANCES UNDER UPPER RIDGING                
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF DEVIATION FROM LATE JUNE NORMALS            
EXPECTED.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HRS OF THE TAFS AT               
KGSP... KGMU AND KAVL. WITH CONVECTION FIRING ON THE                            
ESCARPMENT...THINK THESE SITES STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING TSTMS.             
OTHERWISE HAVE VCTS AND CB IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 0000 UTC THIS EVENING            
TO ACCOUNT FOR SCT CONVECTION. HAVE TAKEN KAVL DOWN TO LIFR CIGS                
AND VSBYS LATER TNGT AS DENSE VALLEY FOG SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP              
IN THE NC MTNS. FROPA TMRW WL PROBABLY RESULT IN MORE SCT                       
CONVECTION...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO INCLUDE ANY CONVECTIVE                   
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1012 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
LOOKING AT THE MORNING UPPER AIR...AS OF 12 UTC THE PERSISTENT H5               
LOW CENTER WAS A LITTLE MORE SHEARED OUT THAN YDA...BUT THE SHEAR               
AXIS WAS STILL BETWEEN KGSO AND KRNK. THEREFORE WE SHOULD CONTINUE              
TO HAVE VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS AFTN DESPITE THE TROF                 
AXIS FINALLY MAKING A LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS. UNLIKE YDA...THE                
LLVL FLOW ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE RUC IS PROGGED TO BE OUT OF THE               
WEST. WE/LL SEE HOW THIS VERIFIES BUT LOOKING AT LOCAL VAD WIND                 
PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS...THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE THE CASE EARLY ON.              
THE FLOW IN THE LLVLS WAS EASTERLY YDA...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE                
INTO THE MTNS. THIS AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND W/THE                    
WESTERLY FLOW TDA...THINK WE WL SEE LESS COVERAGE. I STILL LIKE                 
THE CHANCE POPS THAT THE MID SHIFT HAD...AND THERE WL LIKELY ONCE               
AGAIN TDA BE SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS. DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A                   
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK AS THE NUMBER OF SEVERE STORMS WL BE                     
LESS...BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS ONLY AROUND 10500 FEET...SMALL                  
HAIL WL FALL WITH MANY STORMS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 226 AM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
UPPER TROF AXIS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST THAN PROJECTED BY PREVIOUS MODEL            
RUNS; FEATURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY TODAY. AIRMASS NOT             
AS MOIST TODAY AND CWFA ON THE WEAKER WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BUT               
LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT INFILTRATING THE              
REGION FROM THE WEST PER CROSS SECTIONS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP                
COULD APPROACH SEVERE STATUS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH            
THAT OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION SEEMS A GOOD BET. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A                
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE MOUNTAINS...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A                
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY...PUMPING IN SLIGHTLY MOISTER SURFACE AIR.            
MOS POPS MINIMAL TODAY...BUT WE WILL GIVE ALL LOCATIONS A CHANCE OF             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND CARRY INTO THE EVENING.            
SLIGHTLY BETTER STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW ANY CELLS TO COVER                  
GREATER AREAS THAN CELLS THAT DEVELOPED IN A MORE STAGNANT PATTERN              
ON MONDAY. THICKNESS RISES TODAY SUPPORT MAXIMUMS 3 TO 4 DEGREES                
WARMER THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY.                                              
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR BORDER             
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE SHOULD LIMIT                     
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND WE WILL MENTION             
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT CONTINUE               
CHANCE POPS NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA PORTIONS OF               
THE FORECAST AREA. MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED AS POSSIBLE AREA               
FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN LARGELY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IN THE                 
CURRENT DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION                  
CENTER.                                                                         
BY THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT               
KEEP CWFA IN A DRIER...NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. STRONG DRY                 
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. THERE WILL               
LIKELY BE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THAT PERIOD IN THE NORTH            
CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE WE HELD ON TO UPPER               
80S/AROUND 90 UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. FOR NOW...KEPT POPS AT                 
ISOLATED OR BELOW THAT PERIOD.                                                  
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
NO CHANGES MADE TO THESE PERIODS WITH THIS PACKAGE.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG WILL BE THE INITIAL PROBLEM OF THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR                 
CONDITONS EXPECTED...OCNL IFR OR LESS IN MTN VALLEYS. KAVL WILL MOST            
LIKELY DO AS IT OFTEN DOES...GOING FROM LIFR TO MVFR IN FOG. BY MID             
MORNING ALL FOG SHOULD BE GONE WITH CU DEVELOPING TOWARD NOON. COLD             
AIR ALOFT...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE ONCE              
AGAIN TODAY FOR SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE CB                
CLOUD TYPES AND VCTS ALL SITES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO            
THE SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1142 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AS PER EARLIER DISCUSSION TO INCLUDE SLIGHT           
CHANCE STORMS.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005/                        
UPDATE...                                                                       
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY            
WITH A MIXED LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE FROM 800 TO 700 MB. ALSO...                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KANSAS LOCATED ACROSS           
EASTERN PORTIONS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND RESULTING IN MOISTURE                 
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.                                                  
STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT CAPES 1500 TO 2000               
J/KG COULD BE REALIZED WITH STRONG INSOLATION ONGOING...ESPECIALLY              
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. IN ADDITION...STORM                  
COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD CONTINUE               
INTO THE AREA WITH EXISTENT INSTABILITY.                                        
12Z RUC IS ONLY MODEL TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITH COOL LAYER ALOFT...AND           
IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO FEATURE CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY 00Z OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA. MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...ALLOWING            
ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.                                
UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE IN NEXT HOUR...WILL LIKELY ISSUE FORECAST UPDATE           
BY NOON TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND             
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING...WITH                 
CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER DARK GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING.                           
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
KRAMAR/NUNEZ                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRAMAR                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY            
WITH A MIXED LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE FROM 800 TO 700 MB. ALSO...                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KANSAS LOCATED ACROSS           
EASTERN PORTIONS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND RESULTING IN MOISTURE                 
POOLING ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.                                                  
STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT CAPES 1500 TO 2000               
J/KG COULD BE REALIZED WITH STRONG INSOLATION ONGOING...ESPECIALLY              
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS. IN ADDITION...STORM                  
COMPLEX ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS COULD CONTINUE               
INTO THE AREA WITH EXISTENT INSTABILITY.                                        
12Z RUC IS ONLY MODEL TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITH COOL LAYER ALOFT...AND           
IS ALSO THE ONLY MODEL TO FEATURE CONVECTIVE PRECIP BY 00Z OVER THE             
FORECAST AREA. MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY...ALLOWING            
ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.                                
UNLESS TRENDS CHANGE IN NEXT HOUR...WILL LIKELY ISSUE FORECAST UPDATE           
BY NOON TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND             
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING...WITH                 
CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER DARK GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING.                           
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KRAMAR/NUNEZ                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS             
OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD             
BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND                  
FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE             
A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID                
LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE             
WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND            
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS.                   
OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                        
THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING                
NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS              
LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY                
WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005               
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KDAY TO KMNN. FRONT                  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING.  DRIER AIR MOVES              
IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING                
TO THE NORTH.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING HAVE CLEARING AFTER                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ALL SITES.  NAM CU RULE INDICATING THAT SCT CU              
MAY FORM NEAR KCMH AND KLCK THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR            
IN PLACE...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR AT THIS TIME.                         
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
342 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PLUME OF TOASTY MID LVL TMPS ON EVENING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOOTING UP               
THRU SPINE OF ROCKIES AND MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS.                
RIDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN...OR PERHAPS REBOUNDING JUST A              
BIT ESPLY BACK WWRD AFTER SUBTLE SHORT SLIDING SEWRD THRU CNTRL MN.             
SHORT RANGE CONCERNS ARE MAINLY HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEAT HIGHLIGHTS              
FOR WED INTO THU...THEN DIAGNOSIS OF THUNDER THREAT AS NEXT WAVE                
KNOCKS INTO WARM MID LVL TMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.                               
TEMP DWPT SPREAD CONTINUE FAIRLY LOW MOST AREAS...WITH WEAKNESS                 
IN LOW LVL PRESSURE FIELD RIGHT SMACK DAB OVR CWA.                              
AGREE WITH EVNG FCSTR ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH                 
RECENT SOGGINESS AND START OF STABILIZATION...SO WL LEAVE IN THROUGH            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SEEMS TO BE MORE AN ISSUE OF INITIATION/              
ADVECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCED EVENT THU             
NIGHT...AND DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH OF A THREAT OF THIS               
OCCURRING...AS MOTION VECTORS DO NOT SUPPORT A TREK INTO THE NEAR               
VCNTY.  SOME SMALL CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM IN FAR             
ERN CWA LTR THRU ARND SUNRISE ON TAIL EDGE OF WAVE SLIDING THRU                 
MN...AND RUC SHOWING POP UP ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...                
ONLY A FEW AFTN FLAT CU WOULD SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED OVR              
ERN HALF OF CWA WITH TMPS ALFT JUST A TAD COOLER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT            
MUCH IN WAY OF SIG CLDS...RATHER PASSING HIGH CLDS TO BE PREVALENT.             
WET GROUND LKLY TO KEEP FROM REACHING MAX MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WL             
KEEP SLIGHTLY ON LOWER SIDE OF OVERHEATED GUIDANCE.  STILL QUITE                
WARM WITH MOST AREAS IN LOWER TO MID 90S...AND WARMEST PLUME STILL              
TO W OF CWA. CONSENSUS WAS THAT HEAT HIGHLIGHTS LKLY MARGINAL AT                
BEST THIS AFTN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX GET UP TO ARND 105                
FROM JAMES VLY WWRD FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE AFTN...AND WL                   
MENTION THIS IN HWO.                                                            
QUIET WX APPEARS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH WARM TEMPS ALFT AND LACK            
OF ANY GOOD DYNAMICAL FEATURE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE THREAT. CLASSIC            
WARM NIGHT LOOKS SET UP AT MML AS LL JET VEERS MORE SWLY AND VERY               
WARM TMPS ALFT IN PLACE...AND IF NOT FOR FAR SWRN CWA...CUD BE THE              
WARMEST TONIGHT.                                                                
ANOTHER DAY TO BAKE ON THU. WAVE OFFSHORE PAC COAST COMES EWRD AND              
KNOCKS DOWN AT RIDGE BY AFTN...WITH FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING THRU CNTRL            
SD AND INTO NWRN CWA LTR IN AFTN.  NAM JUST A HEDGE FASTER WITH                 
FEATURES BY MIDDAY THU...BUT WL SIDE A BIT SLOWER CLOSER TO                     
CANADIAN/GFS TIMING.  NOT THRILLED BY AFTN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL                 
WITH STRONG CAP OF 150-250 J/KG /THANKS TO DEEPER SW FLOW ALFT/ IN              
PLACE BEFORE THE USUAL MODEL WORLD GAMES OF LIFTING/COOLING AWAY.               
IT WOULD TAKE A HEATING OUT OF GRAND PROPORTIONS TO FULLY WEAKEN OR             
BREAK CAP AND GET ACTION GOING LATER THU AFTN...WITH TMPS NEEDED                
JUST OVER THE CENTURY MARK...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WHILE            
NO DOUBT THAT BEST ENVIRONMENT WL BE NRN INTO NERN CWA...AND ESPLY              
ON THRU MN WHERE MID LVL TMPS ARE NOT QUITE AS INHIBITING.  EXPECT              
THAT SOME MORE ISOLD STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING ALG BNDRY              
THRU NRN AND WRN CWA.  ML CAPES ARE CONSIDERABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT             
IS VERY CONDITIONAL. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT ONCE ACTION INTIATES...             
COULD DEVELOP BACK ALG BNDRY ESPLY IF MORE CONVERGENT AND FLOW BACKS            
MORE IN RESPONSE TO DECENT DIV Q AREA MOVING INTO ERN SD IN EVNG.               
THEREFORE..WL GO WITH SCT ACRS FAR NRN/NERN CWA...WITH CHC CLOSER               
TO DRY HEAT OUT TRIPLE PT IN NEBRASKA...THEN SPREAD PCPN ALG FRONTAL            
BAND DURING NIGHT...INCREASING COVERAGE HEADING EWRD.                           
NICE JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WITH GOOD DIV Q FIELD FOR HOLDING FRONT              
UP A BIT...AND KEEPING ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION INTO DAYTIME ON FRI            
DESPITE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREFORE...WL UP POPS TO LKLY FOR               
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS ACRS SRN CWA...THEN SAG BNDRY SWRD WITH PCPN            
INTO FRI EVNG.  PCPN ON FRI COULD RESULT IN INVERTED THERMAL                    
FIELD...WITH A BIT MORE WARM TMPS ACRS N WHERE MIXED AND LESS                   
PRECIP...BUT WL BE MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE...AS MIXES ONLY TO MID TO             
UPPER 70S ACRS N.  FRI NIGHT...BUT DO START TO GET RETURN FLOW OUT              
ACRS THE W AND RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHUD                 
SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST...WHICH WL MOVE WITH THE              
MEAN FLOW AND LLJ TOWARD THE S CNTRL. WL TRIM POPS ACRS MUCH OF                 
CWA...ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION INTO WRN CWA.  PLAYED WITH TIMING OF               
RETURN FLOW AND A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FOR SAT INTO SAT                         
NIGHT...KEEPING DRY FOR ERN AREAS SAT. WITH VARIETY OF TIMING...WL              
NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED RANGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.CORRECTED PRELIM POPS/TEMPS...                                                 
.DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM              
TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE                
MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR               
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL              
GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA                   
INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF               
GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME               
ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING             
UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP               
THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN             
TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR            
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH            
MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS               
MORNING...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH            
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING                
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER SHIFTS               
EAST. LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL            
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW...BUOY 020 IS REPORTING              
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THIS TREND OF              
LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE            
INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE BAY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS                   
MORNING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE            
EASTERLY WINDS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE             
NEXT 24 HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OF CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE                     
AFTERNOON...AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST               
BEGINNING AT AROUND NOON TO 1 PM AND MOVING WELL INLAND BY 3 OR 4               
PM. THE SEABREEZE EFFECT INCREASES LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST BY             
ABOUT 5 MPH FOR ROUGHLY AN HOUR AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  77  91  77  91 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
BROWNSVILLE          94  73  94  76  93 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
HARLINGEN            96  72  95  74  94 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
MCALLEN              98  74  98  75  98 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
RIO GRANDE CITY      99  74 101  73 101 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  77  90  77  90 /  10   0   0   0   0                   
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
54/55                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM              
TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE                
MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR               
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL              
GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA                   
INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF               
GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME               
ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING             
UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP               
THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN             
TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR            
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH            
MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS               
MORNING...AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH            
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
FORECAST. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT BEGINNING                
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER SHIFTS               
EAST. LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND WEAKNESS ALOFT WILL            
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MOVE NORTH. FOR NOW...BUOY 020 IS REPORTING              
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THIS TREND OF              
LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE            
INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS OVER THE BAY ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE THIS                   
MORNING WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE            
EASTERLY WINDS WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE             
NEXT 24 HOURS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OF CU MAY DEVELOP IN THE                     
AFTERNOON...AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST               
BEGINNING AT AROUND NOON TO 1 PM AND MOVING WELL INLAND BY 3 OR 4               
PM. THE SEABREEZE EFFECT INCREASES LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST BY             
ABOUT 5 MPH FOR ROUGHLY AN HOUR AS THE FRONT MOVES WEST.                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  93  78  93  77  91 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
BROWNSVILLE          95  75  96  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
HARLINGEN            97  73  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
MCALLEN             100  72  99  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
RIO GRANDE CITY     100  73 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   90  79  89  80  89 /   0   0   0   0   0                   
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
54/55                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
932 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN               
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT WITH             
FALLING DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SOON TO OVERSPREAD ILN CWA.              
EXPECT MINIMAL CUMULUS FORMATION WITH ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME              
MORE STABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.                                              
ALREADY UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND TO MAKE ALL                 
ZONES MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF DRY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED WITH SOUNDING             
SHOWING HIGH IN MID 80S AS PER FORECAST.                                        
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KDAY AND KCMH WHERE WINDS HAVE                   
VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST.  EXPECT SKIES TO BE SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  SMALL PATCH OF              
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KCMH.  HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO THRU                
13Z.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE                   
BREAKING UP. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE                
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS             
OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD             
BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND                  
FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE             
A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID                
LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE             
WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND            
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS.                   
OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                        
THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING                
NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS              
LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY                
WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.                                                
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
650 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KDAY AND KCMH WHERE WINDS HAVE                   
VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST.  EXPECT SKIES TO BE SKC AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.  SMALL PATCH OF              
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KCMH.  HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO THRU                
13Z.  LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE                   
BREAKING UP. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE                
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS             
OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD             
BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND                  
FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE             
A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID                
LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE             
WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND            
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS.                   
OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                        
THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING                
NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS              
LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY                
WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.                                                
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
900 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WV IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE HAS MOVED BACK INTO THE LOWER VALLEY IN               
THE LAST 6 HOURS. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED PW OF 1.43 INCHES...AN                
INCREASE OVER YESTERDAY. AGREE THAT A SEABREEZE SHOWER OR 2 ARE                 
POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WILL KEEP THE                 
SHADOW 5 POPS BUT WILL REARRANGE THEM A BIT TO SEABREEZE                        
ORIENTATION. OTHERWISE INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BUOY020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 KTS AND SEAS AT 3 FEET.                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS             
AND LOW SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME                    
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY               
WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005/                         
CORRECTED PRELIM POPS/TEMPS...                                                  
DISCUSSION...WV SAT INDICATES MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO REGION FROM               
TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE. GFS AND ETA HANDLE THE                
MOISTURE TO THE S DIFFERENTLY. ETA AND RUC INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR               
SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE GFS KEEPS CWA DRY. WILL              
GO WITH NEGLIGIBLE POPS OVER CWA TODAY AND TOMORROW SINCE ETA                   
INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE GFS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF               
GFS/ETA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST SOME               
ENERGY WILL CUT OFF AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SE US BEFORE MOVING             
UNDER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA BY SAT. ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP               
THIS FEATURE OUT OF THE AREA WITH A RESULTING DRIER FCST. WILL LEAN             
TOWARDS GFS/NOGAPS SOLUTION...BUT TREND POPS DOWN BELOW GUIDANCE FOR            
THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH            
MIDWEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS FOR POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTION.             
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
64/65/MARTINEZ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
249 PM MDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)                                                          
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN PRECIP COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES.               
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
CENTER OF UPPER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO WITH                
WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. WATER             
VAPOR ALSO INDICATING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS EASTERN                 
ARIZONA AND UTAH...WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS              
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN                   
FRINGES OF THE CWA ATTM.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS            
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH DEW PTS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S                       
ATTM...THOUGH HAVE MIXED OUT SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH DEW PTS            
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. CURRENT RADARS SUPPORTING WEAK SOUTHERLY             
FLOW ALOFT...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ECHOES ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN               
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH ATTM.                                                
TONIGHT...UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST...WITH UPPER             
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SW ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH CONTINUED WEAK.            
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH ISOLATED              
POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY STORM             
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NCEP PLOTS INDICATED PRECIP WATER                
BETWEEN 100 AND 150 PERCENT OF NORMALS ACROSS THE REGION THIS                   
MORNING...AND WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT...LOCALLY HEAVY                 
RAINS REMAIN A CONCERN. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TO DIMINISH WITH           
THE SUN...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE KEPT                
ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WITH PROXIMITY TO                
MOISTURE PLUME.                                                                 
THURSDAY...SW FLOW INCREASES ALOFT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE              
PAC NW COAST TONIGHT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AMPLE MID AND           
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AS            
MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS UTAH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAVE                   
INCREASED POPS TO HIGH SCATTERED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE               
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE STORMS MOVE OFF              
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE HIGH MT VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR                 
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE INCREASED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AS            
WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS THOUGH...WITH                   
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING TO NEAR THE             
WESTERN KANSAS BORDER AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN              
PLAINS. WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING            
AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR EAST IN THE                    
AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. -MW                   
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)                                                      
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH THE TYPICAL LATE JUNE ROCKY                  
MOUNTAIN FORECAST.                                                              
MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH                 
AND MIGHT DRIFT A LITTLE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS                     
PATTERN...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN                 
IN PLACE FOR THE TYPICAL DIURNAL(AFTN AND EVE) SHRA/TSRA IN THE                 
MOUNTAINS...HIGH VALLEYS...AND ADJACENT PLAINS ALONG I-25. IN SOME              
CASES...MOISTURE DATA ANALYSES INDICATE A "MONSOON-LIKE" MOISTURE               
AXIS COMING OUT OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE                 
SOURCED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MAINLY                
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET AND A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.                 
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD ALSO SUGGEST LOW POPS/WX THROUGH DAY 7...                     
ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO MID                  
LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING FOR MINOR TEMPERATURES VARIANCES EACH                   
DAY. [METZE]                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
245 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AN IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARY HAD EVOLVED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE WATERS...AND IS             
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS WEST AND NORTH OF KEY             
WEST. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN              
INTO THE STRAITS ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS AND            
HEAVY RAINS.                                                                    
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED STEADY EAST             
WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...AND THE WEATHER             
REGIME THAT UNTIL RECENTLY WAS MARKED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 12Z BASED RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED              
DECENT POTENTIAL OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND              
THE LIKE HAS EVOLVED.                                                           
.FORECASTS...                                                                   
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RAISED POPS PER RECENT ZFP UPDATE FOR                
THIS EVENING TO COVER THE MESOSCALE ACTIVITY. ALOFT LITTLE HAS                  
CHANGED IN THE OVERALL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ALIGNMENT                      
NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE                        
YUCATAN...WITH WEAK LOW ALTITUDE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER SOUTH                  
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS MAINTAINING A WEAK SURFACE EAST TO SOUTHEAST               
FLOW.                                                                           
BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE NOW DRIFTING A SHARP LOBE OF THE EAST GULF                 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE KEYS BY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...UKMET             
HOLDS IT JUST TO THE WEST. UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE IMPRESSIVE ON            
THE GFS AND NAM. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH AT              
850 MB...YET THERE IS STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS WITH THE OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAINLY               
THIS EVENING. LIKEWISE...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD            
OR JUST TO THE WEST PROMPTS POPS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TOMORROW.                    
THEREAFTER...THERE ARE FEW SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AFTER THURSDAY TO               
STRAY FROM CLIMO THEREAFTER.                                                    
THUS AFTER AN ACTIVE EVENING...EXPECT LESS COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT                
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-END SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOMORROW. EXPECT THE             
GREATER POTENTIAL TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...EITHER OVER THE KEYS            
OR OVER THE STRAITS. AFTERWARDS GUIDANCE INSIST ON A GRADUAL                    
DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH...BUT STILL ADEQUATE FOR 30 PERCENT POPS             
AND CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW.                                                    
FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...                                           
GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE                      
EASTERLIES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY              
FRIDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO BACK MORE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AS SEEMS              
TO BE THE CASE THIS JUNE...THE EASTERN GULF UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS               
AGAIN WITH AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST THANKS TO YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. 250 MB               
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST YET AGAIN. ENSEMBLE MOS POPS THROUGH               
THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS...AND SEE NO                  
REASON TO STRAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST              
OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MAY OFFSET NEGATING EFFECTS              
FROM BEING WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BOTTOM LINE...A ROUGH EVENING FOR KEYS BOATERS AS THUNDERSTORMS                 
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS DURING               
THE EVENING. THIS ABERRATION IN THE SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME IS LIKELY              
TO KEEP WINDS VARIABLE AND LOCALLY GUSTY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.               
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN.             
THE APPROACH TROUGH TO THE EAST MAY MAKE WINDS BRIEFLY NORTHEAST AT             
TIMES...BUT OVERALL A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AT 10 TO                   
OCCASIONALLY 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                      
MARINERS SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FREQUENT                   
UPDATES ON SHORT-TERM WEATHER THIS EVENING...INCLUDING POSSIBLE                 
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCT SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING ON THE               
ROUTE MIAMI TO KEY WEST...ALONG WITH ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSRA WITH IFR            
CONDITIONS. REMEMBER...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY LLWS. JUST CHECK THE                 
LATEST SIGMETS...METARS...AND TAF AMENDMENTS WHEN PLANNING YOUR                 
FLIGHT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KEY WEST   77/87/80/88/81  70/50/30/30/30                                       
MARATHON   77/89/80/90/81  70/50/30/30/30                                       
&&                                                                              
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...JR                                                 
AVIATION/SHORT TERMS.........DFM                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
115 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED CUMULUS             
WILL DISSIPATE TO SKC THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE SKC FOR THE REST            
OF THE FORECAST. WITH DRYING LOW LEVELS, MIST IS NOT EXPECTED                   
THURSDAY MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
AREA IS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN               
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING IS EVIDENT WITH             
FALLING DEW POINTS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO SOON TO OVERSPREAD ILN CWA.              
EXPECT MINIMAL CUMULUS FORMATION WITH ATMOSPHERE PROGGED TO BECOME              
MORE STABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.                                              
ALREADY UPDATED TO ADJUST WINDS SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND TO MAKE ALL                 
ZONES MOSTLY SUNNY. REST OF DRY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED WITH SOUNDING             
SHOWING HIGH IN MID 80S AS PER FORECAST.                                        
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 240 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING NORTHEAST PORTIONS             
OF FA ATTM AND EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF FA BY ZONE ISSUANCE. LATEST               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN                
PORTIONS OF FA. FRONT FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND SHOULD             
BE THROUGH FA BY LATE MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND                  
FRONT...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE             
A FEW CLOUDS EARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH INVOF FRONT. OTHERWISE...MID                
LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN ACROSS AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE             
WORK WEEK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS AND            
AIRMASS MODIFICATION...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP IN TEMPS.                   
OVERALL...WILL STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.                        
THE 00Z NAM IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THEN THE 00Z GFS...BRINGING                
NEXT FRONT DOWN INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INSTEAD OF SATURDAY. WITH            
RIDGE ACROSS AREA...THINK SLOWER GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO AND THIS              
LINES UP WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST SO WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT DRY                
WITH CHANCE OF PCPN ON SATURDAY.                                                
(ISSUED 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACRS FCST AREA THIS AFTN.  DIURNAL CU HAD                    
DVLPD AND WAS MOST EXPANSIVE SOUTH AND EAST OF I-71...CLOSER TO A               
WEAK MID LVL VORT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  MID LVL CAP WAS A BIT                      
STRONGER FURTHER TO NORTH AND WEST...LIMITING CU SO FAR THIS AFTN.              
TEMPS WERE IN THE L80S ATTM.                                                    
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM FOCUSES ON WEAK FRNTL BNDRY DROPPING                   
SOUTH THRU CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NRN INDIANA ATTM.  THIS FRONT               
WILL MOVE ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG/TONIGHT AND WILL SERVE TO KICK               
OFF A FEW TSTMS.  THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR CONVECTION                
TO CONSIDER FOR THIS EVNG.  BOTH 12Z NAM/GFS SOLNS INDCG NEARLY                 
2000 J/KG DVLPG ACRS WEST CNTRL OH ONCE CAP BREAKS THIS EVNG.                   
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING PROBLEMS RESOLVING                     
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...OVERESTIMATING SFC DEWPTS BY NEARLY 10 DEG                 
ATTM.  THIS IS LEADING TO ERRORS IN SBCAPES NOTED BTWN 00-06Z. 18Z              
RUC ON OTHER HAND DOES HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON DRIER DEWPTS                     
CURRENTLY ACRS REGION.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDCG MAY HAVE GREATER                    
PROBLEMS OVERCOMING CAP...WITH SBCAPES BARELY TO 1000 J/KG WHERE                
CAP IS BROKEN.  WHILE THERE IS SOME WEAK BNDRY LYR CONV THIS                    
EVNG...THERE IS NOT MUCH ELSE AVAIL FOR FORCING THRU 06Z.  THINK                
MET/MAV POPS ARE TOO HIGH...AND PLAN ON UNDERCUTTING BOTH FOR                   
TONIGHT.  BEST SHOT AT TSTMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN NRN FCST                     
AREA...AND HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS THIS EVNG.  FURTHER                        
SOUTH...ANY TSTMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED AS ENVIRONMENT IS LESS                
FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW 30.  FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF                
OHIO RIVER AFT 06Z...WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE.                           
EXPECT DRY WX FOR WED/WED NIGHT AS SFC HI PRES MOVES ACRS CNTRL                 
GRT LKS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND               
SUBSIDENCE THRU LOWER ATMOSPHERE...SO EXPECT MSTLY SUNNY SKIES.                 
MAY SEE FEW CU DVLP ACRS CNTRL/SO CNTRL OH WHERE BNDRY LYR                      
MOISTURE IS RETAINED FOR A LITTLE LONGER INTO AFTN HOURS...BUT                  
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A NICE DAY.  CLEAR COMFORTABLE WED NIGHT AS                 
SFC HI DRIFTS ACRS REGION.                                                      
TEMPS...KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO TEMP GUID TONIGHT.  CLOUDS WILL KEEP               
LOWS GENERALLY ABV 60.  ALLOWED FOR A LARGER DIURNAL SPREAD FOR                 
WED/WED NIGHT WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE.  SO NEAR GUID ON                    
WED...AND THEN UNDERCUT GUID TEMPS BY A FEW DEG WED NIGHT.  MAY                 
ACTUALLY SEE MIN TEMPS GET DOWN INTO L/M50S.                                    
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
FIRST WEEK OF SUMMER WILL END APPROPRIATELY WITH A BERMUDA HIGH                 
BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY FRIDAY. FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WILL REBUILD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                            
STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE INDICATES NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL                        
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM. NUDGED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY                
NIGHT DOWN SINCE WARM UP WILL BE GRADUAL.                                       
CONIGLIO                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1157 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY CONDITIONS AS FORECAST WITH VERY FEW CHANGES             
TO GOING FORECAST. MADE A FEW CHANGES EARLIER TO INCREASE MORNING               
DIURNAL CLIMB...OTHERWISE...HIGHS LOOK GOOD. DECREASED CLOUDS FOR               
MOST LOCATIONS A BIT AS WELL.                                                   
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PLUME OF TOASTY MID LVL TMPS ON EVENING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOOTING UP               
THRU SPINE OF ROCKIES AND MAKING THE TURN TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS.                
RIDGE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN...OR PERHAPS REBOUNDING JUST A              
BIT ESPLY BACK WWRD AFTER SUBTLE SHORT SLIDING SEWRD THRU CNTRL MN.             
SHORT RANGE CONCERNS ARE MAINLY HEAT AND POTENTIAL HEAT HIGHLIGHTS              
FOR WED INTO THU...THEN DIAGNOSIS OF THUNDER THREAT AS NEXT WAVE                
KNOCKS INTO WARM MID LVL TMPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.                               
TEMP DWPT SPREAD CONTINUE FAIRLY LOW MOST AREAS...WITH WEAKNESS                 
IN LOW LVL PRESSURE FIELD RIGHT SMACK DAB OVR CWA.                              
AGREE WITH EVNG FCSTR ABOUT THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG WITH                 
RECENT SOGGINESS AND START OF STABILIZATION...SO WL LEAVE IN THROUGH            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SEEMS TO BE MORE AN ISSUE OF INITIATION/              
ADVECTION CONVECTIVE THREAT UNTIL MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCED EVENT THU             
NIGHT...AND DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THERE IS MUCH OF A THREAT OF THIS               
OCCURRING...AS MOTION VECTORS DO NOT SUPPORT A TREK INTO THE NEAR               
VCNTY.  SOME SMALL CONCERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD STORM IN FAR             
ERN CWA LTR THRU ARND SUNRISE ON TAIL EDGE OF WAVE SLIDING THRU                 
MN...AND RUC SHOWING POP UP ACTIVITY THERE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...                
ONLY A FEW AFTN FLAT CU WOULD SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORED OVR              
ERN HALF OF CWA WITH TMPS ALFT JUST A TAD COOLER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT            
MUCH IN WAY OF SIG CLDS...RATHER PASSING HIGH CLDS TO BE PREVALENT.             
WET GROUND LKLY TO KEEP FROM REACHING MAX MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WL             
KEEP SLIGHTLY ON LOWER SIDE OF OVERHEATED GUIDANCE.  STILL QUITE                
WARM WITH MOST AREAS IN LOWER TO MID 90S...AND WARMEST PLUME STILL              
TO W OF CWA. CONSENSUS WAS THAT HEAT HIGHLIGHTS LKLY MARGINAL AT                
BEST THIS AFTN...BUT COULD SEE THE HEAT INDEX GET UP TO ARND 105                
FROM JAMES VLY WWRD FOR A FEW HOURS MID TO LATE AFTN...AND WL                   
MENTION THIS IN HWO.                                                            
QUIET WX APPEARS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH WARM TEMPS ALFT AND LACK            
OF ANY GOOD DYNAMICAL FEATURE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE THREAT. CLASSIC            
WARM NIGHT LOOKS SET UP AT MML AS LL JET VEERS MORE SWLY AND VERY               
WARM TMPS ALFT IN PLACE...AND IF NOT FOR FAR SWRN CWA...CUD BE THE              
WARMEST TONIGHT.                                                                
ANOTHER DAY TO BAKE ON THU. WAVE OFFSHORE PAC COAST COMES EWRD AND              
KNOCKS DOWN AT RIDGE BY AFTN...WITH FRONTAL BNDRY SLIDING THRU CNTRL            
SD AND INTO NWRN CWA LTR IN AFTN.  NAM JUST A HEDGE FASTER WITH                 
FEATURES BY MIDDAY THU...BUT WL SIDE A BIT SLOWER CLOSER TO                     
CANADIAN/GFS TIMING.  NOT THRILLED BY AFTN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL                 
WITH STRONG CAP OF 150-250 J/KG /THANKS TO DEEPER SW FLOW ALFT/ IN              
PLACE BEFORE THE USUAL MODEL WORLD GAMES OF LIFTING/COOLING AWAY.               
IT WOULD TAKE A HEATING OUT OF GRAND PROPORTIONS TO FULLY WEAKEN OR             
BREAK CAP AND GET ACTION GOING LATER THU AFTN...WITH TMPS NEEDED                
JUST OVER THE CENTURY MARK...KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. WHILE            
NO DOUBT THAT BEST ENVIRONMENT WL BE NRN INTO NERN CWA...AND ESPLY              
ON THRU MN WHERE MID LVL TMPS ARE NOT QUITE AS INHIBITING.  EXPECT              
THAT SOME MORE ISOLD STORMS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD EVENING ALG BNDRY              
THRU NRN AND WRN CWA.  ML CAPES ARE CONSIDERABLE...SO SEVERE THREAT             
IS VERY CONDITIONAL. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT ONCE ACTION INTIATES...             
COULD DEVELOP BACK ALG BNDRY ESPLY IF MORE CONVERGENT AND FLOW BACKS            
MORE IN RESPONSE TO DECENT DIV Q AREA MOVING INTO ERN SD IN EVNG.               
THEREFORE..WL GO WITH SCT ACRS FAR NRN/NERN CWA...WITH CHC CLOSER               
TO DRY HEAT OUT TRIPLE PT IN NEBRASKA...THEN SPREAD PCPN ALG FRONTAL            
BAND DURING NIGHT...INCREASING COVERAGE HEADING EWRD.                           
NICE JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS WITH GOOD DIV Q FIELD FOR HOLDING FRONT              
UP A BIT...AND KEEPING ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION INTO DAYTIME ON FRI            
DESPITE TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. THEREFORE...WL UP POPS TO LKLY FOR               
MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS ACRS SRN CWA...THEN SAG BNDRY SWRD WITH PCPN            
INTO FRI EVNG.  PCPN ON FRI COULD RESULT IN INVERTED THERMAL                    
FIELD...WITH A BIT MORE WARM TMPS ACRS N WHERE MIXED AND LESS                   
PRECIP...BUT WL BE MUCH COOLER EVERYWHERE...AS MIXES ONLY TO MID TO             
UPPER 70S ACRS N.  FRI NIGHT...BUT DO START TO GET RETURN FLOW OUT              
ACRS THE W AND RETURN OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WHICH SHUD                 
SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST...WHICH WL MOVE WITH THE              
MEAN FLOW AND LLJ TOWARD THE S CNTRL. WL TRIM POPS ACRS MUCH OF                 
CWA...ALLOWING FOR ADVECTION INTO WRN CWA.  PLAYED WITH TIMING OF               
RETURN FLOW AND A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FOR SAT INTO SAT                         
NIGHT...KEEPING DRY FOR ERN AREAS SAT. WITH VARIETY OF TIMING...WL              
NOT MAKE ANY FURTHER CHANGES TO EXTENDED RANGE.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
551 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST WRN EXTENT OF TSTMS NOW               
ENTERING NW VA WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY                
HEAD S (CONSISTENT W/ HIGHEST CAPE IN RUC OVER VA PIEDMONT)...SO                
HAVE DROPPED AFTERNOON WARNING AND GONE W/ ISO TSTM OVER PIEDMONT               
THIS EVENING (AS WANING SOLAR HEATING SHLD WORK TO DMNSH EXTENT                 
OVER TIME). STILL CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR MARIGINALLY SEVERE              
HAIL/WINDS...LIMITING FACTOR IS VERY WEAK (ONLY 20-25KT) IN LOWEST              
6 KM.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 334 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
SFC WSHFT N OF MASON DIXON LN ATTM...AND WTR VPR PIX SHOW THE                   
RAPID MID/UPR DRYING SINKING S...SUPPLYING MUCH OF THE FRCG                     
SUPPORTING THE CNVCTN N OF THE MASON DIXON LN. SOME ISOLD CNVCTN                
IN THE PIEDMONT DUE TO INSTBLTY OVR THE REGION. BKN BAND OF SPRKLS              
EXITING THE LWR MD ERN SHORE THRU SE VA AND NC. CURRENT DATA AND                
TRENDS SUPPORT THE DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GDNC...THAT MID/UPR                    
DRYING AND A BRUSH WTH SOME UPR DYNMCS WL SUPPORT CNVCTN ALG THE                
WSHFT BNDRY AS IT CONTS ITS PROGRESS S LT THS AFTN AND THRU THS                 
EVENING. SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO WHERE THE BEST VERTICVAL MOTION               
TRACKS...BUT BASED ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW ABV THE BNDRY LYR...AND LACK               
OF MOISTURE ABV THE BNDRY LYR IN WRN AREAS...BEST CHCS FOR                      
SHRA/TSTM WL BE BASICALLY ARND CHES BAY THRU LWR MD...SE VA AND NE              
NC...WTH SLGT CHCS ARND I-95 INCL OFP/RIC/PTB/EMV. ISOLD SVR PSBL               
BUT MOST STAYING BELOW SVR...AND AS ALWAYS...ANY TSTMS CAN PRODUCE              
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. VIL OF DAY ESTIMATED IN LOW 60S.                    
DEEP DRYING SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVRNGT AND THRU TMRW...BUT                
SFC DWPTS DO NOT DROP MUCH IF AT ALL. BNDRY LYR TEMPS DO                        
COOL...ESPCLY IN ERN AREAS. TEMPS FALL INTO LWR/MID 60S MOST AREAS              
OVRNGT. WTH STG SUNSHINE TMRW...TEMPS WL CLIMB WELL INTO 80S MOST               
AREAS EVEN WTH THE SLGTLY COOLER BNDRY LYR TEMPS...BUT A LTL                    
COOLER ON LWR MD ERN SHORE.                                                     
SFC HGH BUILDS OFFSDHORE TMRW NGT AND FRI...SO SRLY SFC FLO SETS                
UP...AND BNDRY LYR TEMPS WARM...SO TRENDING TWD 90 IN WARMER SPOTS              
AGN ON FRI...AND WDSPRD ARND 90 TO LWR 90S SATURDAY AS UPR RDG                  
BUILDS OFFSHORE...BUT ONSHORE SFC WNDS KP CSTL AREAS COOLER. SYSTM              
CURRENTLY ARND SRN FL NOT RESOLVED WELL BY VARIOUS SOURCES OF                   
GDNC...AND BASED ON MEAN UPR PATN AND WND FLO...SHUD NOT AFFECT                 
OUR REGION...AT LEAST THRU SATURDAY.                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
BY SATURDAY NGT AND SUNDAY...NXT SFC BNDRY APPCHS FROM THE N...BUT              
UPR RDG WELL AMPLIFIED JUST OFFSHORE...AND NRN STREAM UPR IMPULSE               
NOT VRY AMPLIFIED...SO SFC BNDRY WL BE VRY WK IF IT EVEN MAKES IT               
INTO VA/NC. CNVCTN MAY HELP DRIVE WSHFT BNDRY S INTO VA/NC BY                   
SUNDAY NGT AND MON...SO KEEPING ISOLD CNVCTN IN GRIDS UNTIL MORE                
EVIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED CNVCTN. SOME SOURCES OF GDNC CONT TO SUGG                
SRN STREAM UPR IMPULSES HEADING NW INTO CAROLINAS ARND PERIPHERY                
OF UPR RDG...BUT QUITE A SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES IN SOURCES OF                  
GDNC...SO NOT ACKNOWLEDGING IN FCST...AND KPG DRY WTH TEMPS AT OR               
ABV CLIMO.                                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT IN ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION WHERE VSBY MAY                   
BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO MVFR.                                                     
MARINE...                                                                       
FROPA THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS TURN NORTH THEN EAST. HOWEVER...SPEEDS             
MODEST IN LATEST RUNS AND NOW APPEARS MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA                
EVEN FOR SOUTHERN WATERS...SO HAVE TAKEN OUT MENTION FROM FCST.                 
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NS                                                                 
LONG TERM...NS                                                                  
AVIATION...09                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MALOIT                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va