WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
245 PM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL 500MB ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS                
LIFTING MECHANISM FOR MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED BY NOON.               
AIR MASS DRY PER MORNING SOUNDING AND THEREFORE VERY LITTLE RAIN FROM           
THESE STORMS EXPECTED.. MAINLY GUSTY WIND VARIETY.  MINOR UPPER LEVEL           
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT.  MODELS                
INDICATE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT STRENGTHENING              
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY.  LIFTED INDICES REMAIN BELOW              
ZERO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.. BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY                
DISTURBANCES TO ENHANCE LIFT.  WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                  
SHEARING SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GETS CAUGHT               
UP IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND BROAD EASTERN CANADA TROUGH.                    
WHILE MOST OF THIS SHORT WAVE ENERGY STAYS OVER MONTANA AND                     
WYOMING.. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE                       
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT                 
LIFT TO INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.. SO             
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.                            
EXTENDED.. AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH MRF               
SHOWING STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS.  MRF             
AS BEEN LEANING TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR THE PAST WEEK.. BUT RIDGE              
HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS MUCH AS ADVERTISED.  WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW                
PERHAPS INCREASING AT 700 MB BY WEDNESDAY.. WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE             
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTO EASTERN UTAH.  NO CHANGES TO                    
WESTERN COLORADO WITH CHANCE OF AFTERNOON MOUNTAINS THUNDERSTORMS               
CONTINUING.                                                                     
FRISBIE                                                                         
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 122000  co                                      

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
200 PM MDT   SATURDAY   JUNE 12 1999                                            
OVERALL APRS PATTERN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND GOOD CHC OF STORMS               
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  TODAY TSTMS FIRING                   
QUICKLY AS MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME UPR LVL SUPPORT FM SHT WAVE               
NOW OVR WRN CO PER RUC AND WTR VPR IMAGERY MOVING EAST...WHILE                  
FARTHER E ERN CO STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF EXITING WAVE NOW IN WRN               
KS.  MEANWHILE FRONT MOVING S INTO WY AS HI PRES BUILDS BHND GUD                
SHORT WV MOVING ACRS ERN MT.  THIS FRONT AND ASSOC UPR LVL FORCING              
WITH WAVE AND UPR LVL JET STREAK BRINGS A GOOD DEAL OF FORCING INTO             
WRN NEB LATER TONIGHT SO WUD XPCT THERE SHD BE AREA OF TSTMS                    
THERE...THIS SHD HELP PUSH SURGE INTO NERN CO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND                
MIGHT KEEP SHWRS/TSTMS GOING ALL NIGHT OVER PTNS OF THE ERN                     
PLAINS...AS WELL AS LEADING TO LOTS OF LOW CLDNS SUNDAY MORNING.  SO            
XPCT SUNDAY TO HAVE COPIOUS LO LVL MSTR WITH ELY FLOW AT LOW LVLS AND           
PERHAPS MORE UPR LVL FLOW FM THE NW AS THE JET STREAK WILL BE CLOSER            
TO FCST AREA...THO STILL FAR ENUF TO THE NE THAT AMNT OF FLOW OVER              
AREA IS STILL TRICKY.  WILL NEED TO UP POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY GIVEN              
PASSAGE OF FRONT WITH INCRSD UPSLP.                                             
FOR MONDAY...THOUGHT YSTDY THAT IT MIGHT BE THE DRIER DAY AHEAD OF              
THE NEXT SURGE OF COOLER UPSLOPE FM THE N FOR TUE AND BYND.  TODAY              
THO LUKS LIKE THERE SHD CONT TO BE PLENTY OF LO LVL MSTR ARND AND               
WITH WARMER SFC TEMPS PROB NO SHORTAGE OF AFTN TSTMS AGAIN...WILL GO            
ORDER OF 40 PCNT CHC OR SO.  LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGRMNT              
AND HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON STRENGTH OF HI ENTERING OUR AREA...BUT             
STILL PICTURE IS GENERALLY THE SAME WITH ANOTHER SURGE XPCTD LATE               
MONDAY OR ERLY TUE...LEADING TO RENEWED UPSLOPE CONDS.  GRADUALLY               
FLOW WILL COME ARND WITH TIME TO MORE SELY WITH SOME TEMP                       
RECOVERY...WILL BROAD BRUSH IN STATE AND PUT ANY SUCH DETAILS IN                
ZONE EXTENDED PERIOD.  LIKELY AN ACTIVE 5 DAYS AHEAD.  SZOKE                    
.DEN...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 120901  co                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
TONIGHT...EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL TRIGGER                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR OF FA LATER THIS                    
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. RUC MODEL INDICATES BEST SURFACE                  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR OF FA...AROUND               
LAKE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHED BACK TO THE EAST              
COAST BY EARLY EVENING DUE TO SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. AVN MODEL                   
PLACES SURFACE LOW OVER NC COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD NOT               
HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON FA.                                                      
SUN...ETA SHOWS E-W AXIS OF DRYING RIGHT THRU CENTRAL FL IN RESPONCE            
TO SHARPENING OF MID LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF MID ATLC COAST CUTOFF.                
WHILE PARTIAL DRYING EXPECTED FEEL THAT SIMILAR TO TODAY IT WIL ONLY            
SLOW DEVELOPENT OF CONVECTION AND ACTVTY WILL FIRE WITH SEA BREEZE              
COLLISION AND MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST ESPECIALLY N OF THE CAPE.             
SUN NT AND MON...WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WILL WEAKEN               
AND LIFT NE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED IN LONG WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE            
UPPER MID W AND GREAT LKS. BROAD SFC RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WILL SLIDE             
A BIT MORE S AND ALLOW FLOW TO VEER. ONLY THE ETA INDICATES DEEPER              
MOISTURE MOVING IN FM THE S OVER THE TOP OF MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ALL             
MDLS INDICATE PCP WATER VALUES MORE THEN ENOUGH FOR MORE TS ACTVTY.             
MAY TEND TO HAVE HIER POPS IN THE S.                                            
TUE AND WED...AS SHRT WV MOVES WELL N OF AREA FLOW CONTINUE TO VEER             
TO THE SW AND WILL FOCUS ACTVTY CLOSER TO THE E COAST. FIRST N OF               
THE CAPE ON TUE AND ALL AREAS BY MID WEEK.                                      
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
DAB BB 072/087 071/087 070 05343                                                
MCO TT 070/088 072/089 070 05443                                                
MLB BB 073/086 073/088 072 05343                                                
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 121833  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1055 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED VORT LOBE SPINNING OVER THE            
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WITH ROTATION AROUND THE SYSTEM CLEARLY EVIDENT            
IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. 12Z RUC SHOWS THIS FEATURE HANGING              
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY DRIFTING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO SE              
AL. BACK DOOR FRONT MADE SOME SWWD PROGRESS DURING THE NIGHT BUT                
APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM SAVANNAH NW ACROSS CENTRAL GA SO OUR               
AIRMASS IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE ANYTIME SOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS                
JUICED AND UNSTABLE WITH SEA BREEZE FRONTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES               
LIKELY TO INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM LATE AFTERNOON                
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.                                                         
PLENTY OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS BIG BEND ZONES THIS MORNING AND TEMPS              
RUNNING BEHIND GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE WE WILL SEE             
SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX TO YESTERDAY WITH THE SUN BREAKING THROUGH IN               
SPOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND AND QUICKLY BOOSTING US UNDER STRONG                
JUNE SUN UP TO GUIDANCE MAXT/S WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING WELL LATELY.               
BOTH FWC/FAN SHOW 88 FOR TLH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. WILL                    
INTRODUCE A RANGE TO AFTERNOON MAXT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER              
AREAS NEAR THE COAST AND OTHER AREAS THAT BREAK OUT A BIT EARLIER               
THAN TLH...85 TO 90 WILL BE THE CALL. WITH AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS                
WILL WORD SKY CONDITION AS MOSTLY CLOUDY AND DELAY LIKELY POPS TO               
LATE AFTERNOON.                                                                 
MAW                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 121443  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
RADAR LOOP INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS LOCATED              
OVER EXTREME NE FL AND SE GA HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP LAST COUPLE OF                
HOURS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES BUT EXPECT THAT TO            
CHANGE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MAJORITY OF CWA AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT                
ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS TIME...ZONES APPEAR FINE AND NO                   
UPDATES PLANNED.                                                                
RUC MODEL SHOWS HIGH MEAN RH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED ALONG            
A NW-SE AXIS TODAY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SW. THIS SEEMS                 
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING                  
INDICATES PW NEAR 1.8 BUT WET BULB ZERO IS ABV 12 KFT. THEREFORE...             
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS TODAY BUT POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE TS APPEARS               
RATHER LOW. VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AS WELL.                           
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER THE NE CORNER OF CWF AREA.                
LATEST BUOY REPORT FROM 41008 IS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5 FT. SUGGEST                
RAISING WINDS AND SEAS IN CWF.                                                  
ARS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 121423  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
945 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE CLEARLY EVIDENT            
ON LAMP ANALYSIS THIS EVENING.  DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS              
MUCH OF SC AND WESTERN NC.  DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE               
AROUND UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF NC COAST.  MEANWHILE...TROPICAL SYSTEM             
WHICH BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO CNTRL/S GA FRI...HAS                   
DRIFTED WNW INTO AL.  RUC MODEL SHOWS MAX VORTICITY CENTER ALIGNED              
ALONG TLH...MGM...MEI LINE...WITH ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT                    
OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED SHRA EARLY IN W/SW GA HAVE ALL DISSIPATED WITH             
NO PRECIPITATION EVIDENT ON FFC/JGX WSR-88D.                                    
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A QUIET DAY FOR GA WITH VERY LITTLE SHRA/TSRA                 
ACTIVITY.  MUCH OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF             
THE UPPER LOW OFF NC COAST AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND FILLS NEXT             
48 HOURS.  THE ONLY AREA APPEARING TO HAVE ANY THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA             
ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL BE THE EXTREME SW CORNER...NEAREST THE SYSTEM              
IN AL.  DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER                   
N/CNTRL/E SECTIONS OF GA SUNDAY.  AFTER SUNDAY...APPEARS THAT AN                
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE SE U.S. AS FRONT             
STALLS NEAR GA/TN BORDER AND DISTURBANCES MOVE DOWN FROM THE NW ON              
BACK SIDE OF DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH.                                      
FOR UPDATE...WILL REMOVE ALL MENTION OF EVENING POPS FOR SOUTHERN               
SECTIONS.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TARGET WITH                     
RELATIVELY COOL/DIR AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST TAKEN INTO              
ACCOUNT.  MAY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO                                    
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND WINDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR.                          
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
RAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 121952  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE DISCUSSED EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW UNDERWAY AS THE               
OVERALL PATTERN IS BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY BEING                  
TRANSFERRED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM ALLOWING IT TO BECOME DOMINANT.            
NET RESULT IS THE CURRENT 4 WAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WILL             
BECOME AN UNSTABLE 5 WAVE PATTERN. MOSAIC OF GOES 8/10...GMS-5...AND            
METOSAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN               
PACIFIC/ALASKA AREA IS REORGANIZING AS THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE                
TROF RETROGRESSES WESTWARD. PER SATELLITE TRENDS STRONG SHORTWAVE               
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MERGE WITH ENERGY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA             
AS HEIGHTS BUILD JUST WEST OF THE SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL ALLOW               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROF TO RETROGRESS ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO             
NEAR 47.5N/153W. DOWNSTREAM THIS REORGANIZES THE REX BLOCK INTO AN              
OMEGA BLOCK ON THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALLOWING THE POLAR               
VORTEX WEST OF GREENLAND TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND CARVE              
OUT A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS.                      
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NORTHWEST FLOW WITH                
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.            
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEST COAST OMEGA BLOCK WILL BEGIN TO             
BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SIBERIA DIVES            
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROF ALLOWING ENERGY TO BE TRANSFERRED INTO            
THE SOUTHERN STREAM.                                                            
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
PROFILER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE               
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. A MUCH MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS               
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI WHICH IS BARELY REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE              
AS A TROF FROM NEAR KIRK TO KSTL. THIS SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH                  
HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOTED ON THE               
DVN 88D. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KCDJ WHILE            
THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG A KEFT... KMUT... KCDJ LINE.            
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE 70 DEW POINT AIR EAST OF              
THE MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION NOTED ON                
WATER VAPOR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY DIURNAL CU/SC BEHIND THE              
FRONT WITH THE BETTER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/EAST OF THE                    
MISSISSIPPI.                                                                    
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MANY...RAIN CHANCES...CLOUDS/TEMPS...AND              
WHETHER TO KEEP ANY HEADLINES.                                                  
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK AND WERE DOING A FAIRLY                
GOOD JOB OF VERIFYING AT 18Z. THE ETA CATCHES THE LOW NEAR KCDJ AT              
18Z DUE TO ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION. 15Z RUC INITIALIZED THE LOW BUT               
LOST IT BY 18Z BUT IS CATCHING THE MAJOR FEATURES FAIRLY WELL. ALL              
MODELS INDICATE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAY MOVE THE             
FRONT 10-20 MILES DURING THE NIGHT WHILE IT WAITS FOR THE KANSAS                
SHORTWAVE TO MOVE UP ALONG IT. ADDITIONALLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND               
THE FRONT ARE STILL NIL BUT STRONGER ONES ARE SHOWING UP IN THE                 
DAKOTAS. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SO LOW (AOA 1 INCH) WILL KEEP                
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FOR AREAS ROUGHLY              
ALONG AND EAST OF A DBQ TO JUST EAST OF OTM LINE. FAIRLY HIGH PWS               
COMBINED WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED THICKNESS...SURFACE FRONT...             
AND EVENTUAL RRQ OF JET ALL POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.                  
PRESSURE RISES FINALLY FORCE FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE               
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING DEW POINTS. SO WILL GO WITH                   
GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY             
NIGHT ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL            
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
PATTERN CHANGE ALLOWS NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW             
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS TAKE            
PLACE ON THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD BE QUITE RAW WITH TEMPERATURES               
ONLY IN THE 60S.                                                                
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI...AND STL.                               
.DVN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY                                     
IAZ054-064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099                                          
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-025-026-034-035                                      
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 121925  ia                                      

SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA/SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
200 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
DVLPMNT OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONT INTO THE EARLY EVE HRS ARCS                
CWA TAPERING OFF AFTR SUNSET WILL LOSS OF LOW LVL SUPPORT. SFC RUC              
INDCG SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPG IN AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE. SHWRS                   
AND TSTM ACTVTY TO SWITCH TO OFFSHORE AS C-BRZ/ LAND-BRZ SWITCHES               
AND LOW LVL DYNAMIC'S SWITCHES OVR CSTL WTRS. MSTLY CLR SKIES                   
XPCD OVRNGHT W/ LIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR INLD AREAS.                                
SFC PRES GRAD RMNS WEAK W/ SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GULF. UPR LVL                  
WEAKNESS XPCD TO CONT OVR SE TX AND SW LA... AS RDGG FM REX BLOCK               
OFF THE E CST EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE GULF CSTL STATES EAST OF THE                
AREA. AVN AND NGM NOW TRYING TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT... BUT WITH                
UPR LVL SUPPORT AND LTL CHANGE XPCD IN THE TROPICAL MSTR WILL LEAN              
TOWARDS PRESISTANCE.                                                            
NGM MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOUT RIGHT W/ MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL                 
ADJUST POPS UP A BIT.                                                           
LCH TT 073/087 073/087 4635                                                     
LFT TT 073/087 072/087 4535                                                     
AEX TT 069/088 069/088 4533                                                     
BPT TT 073/087 073/087 3545                                                     
K. KUYPER                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLCH 121919  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
955 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
CURRENT APX 88D SHOWING WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST          
LOWER MICHIGAN... WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR RADIATION. RADAR NOW MAINLY            
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE            
LAKE HURON SHORELINE FROM ALPENA TO ROGERS CITY. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION         
WILL BE LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                              
21Z RUC SHOWING 850 MB DEW PTS QUICKLY DECREASING FROM AROUND 12C THIS          
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8C OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. RUC KEEPING 12C DEW PT AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN AND                 
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST... AS WEAKENING AND SLOW MOVING              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT              
LAKES.                                                                          
RUC SHOWING QVECTOR FORCING... 850/700 ...CONTINUING OVER THE EAST              
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH THE                 
LINGERING HIGH 850 DEW PT AIR... THEREFORE KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS              
...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF          
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AIR DRYING OVER WESTERN LOWER AND EAST UPPER            
MICHIGAN... THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING STABILITY... SO WILL            
DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.                                                  
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 122003  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
UPDATE CONCERNS...SHRA/TSRA IN E CWA AND CLEARING TREND WEST.                   
AT 15Z...SFC COLD FRNT EXTDNG FM E LK SUPERIOR-ISQ-MKE WITH SFC DEWPTS          
65-69 E OF FRONT...AND DRIER DWPTS NEAR 55 ADVECTING INTO W/CNTRL               
CWA IN W FLOW. IR/LTG DATA INDICATING COOLING TOPS AND TSRA OVR WI              
DOOR PENISULA MVG NE 25 KTS. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCD               
WITH WK SHORTWAVE RESLVD BY 12Z RUC THAT IS IMBEDDED IN SW UPR FLOW.            
CORRESPONDING ENHANCEMENT WITH FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN WV IMGRY.                
SW FEATURE IS FCST BY 12Z RUC TO CONTINUE NE ALNG COLD FRONT BDRY               
INTO E CWA BWTN 15-21Z. RUCS 310K THETA SFC DEPICTS WEAK LOBE OF                
ASCENT TO TRAVERSE E CWA WITH FEATURE...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING                  
DESCENT BY 00Z. CONVERGENT LK BREEZES SHOULD AID IN                             
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH MINIMAL SOLAR HEATING...CAPES                            
500-1000J/KG...AND SHOWALTER INDEX 1-2C...WILL RETAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA             
DEVELOPING...WITHOUT RISK OF SVR.                                               
TO WEST INCREASING DECENT EVIDENT ON 12Z RUCS 310K THETA SFC...WITH             
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALREADY WRKNG INTO GOGEBIC                    
COUNTY...THIS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS KEEWENAW PENINSULA REACHING               
CNTRL CWA LATE. UPSTREAM INL SOUNDING QUITE DRY...SO BELIEVE SKIES              
WILL BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AS RELATIVELY LOW LEVEL BDRY LAYER                   
MOISTURE MIXES OUT. MAX TMPS LK REASONABLE.                                     
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 121503  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
835 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS ERN NC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL             
BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY RETURN UNDER THERMAL INVERSION             
TNT. SFC LOW ABOUT 65 MILES DUE E OF CAPE HAT SLOWLY DRIFTING W. VIS            
AND IR SAT IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION INCREASING ON NRN SIDE OF LOW IN              
VCTY OF H5 VORT. MESOETA...RUC AND AVN IN CLOSE AGRMT AT 00Z HWVR               
PREFER THE MESOETA SOLN THIS EVENING. RUC AND AVN MODELS ARE HAVING A           
TOUGH TIME HANGING ONTO THE H5 VORT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS W. THE              
RUC KEEPS THE VORT INTACT LONGER. HWVR DESPITE THE AMOUNT OF                    
CONVECTION OFFSHORE MODELS KEEP LIFT AND DEEP RH JUST OFFSHORE ON THE           
N AND NE SIDE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. BELIEVE THIS TO BE A GOOD                 
SOLN...MEANING OUTER BANKS WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SCT SHRA/TSTMS            
TNT. MHX SNDG STILL A BIT DRY AT 00Z WITH PWAT AT 1.32 AND A                    
K INDEX OF 20. WITH THIS SAID MAINLAND AREAS WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE               
JUST WDLY SCT SHRA TNT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE THE BIG              
RAIN SOAKER THAT MUCH OF THE AREA NEEDS AND CURRENT ZONES LOOK ON               
TRACK WITH POPS TNT. LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE TMRW AND THEN GET PICKED-            
UP/ABSORBED IN THE UPPER FLOW AND QUICKLY LIFT NE. SCT SHRA/TSTMS               
WILL BE PSBL SUN MAINLY IN THE AFTN AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A LITTLE             
AND A WEAK SEA BREEZE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND.                                     
CSTL: WINDS AT DSLN7 CONT TO BLOW AT 20 KT WITH 5 TO 6 FT SEAS...               
DUCN7 ALSO HAS 5 TO 6 FT SEAS. WILL KEEP SCA GOING N OF OCRACOKE                
INLET MAINLY FOR SEAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AT DSLN7 OVERNIGHT AS LOW             
GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND PRES GRAD RELAXES. LATEST SFC ANAL                 
ALREADY SHOWS PRES GRAD RELAXING. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO BELOW SCA              
COND BY MORNING.                                                                
.MHX...SCA FROM S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OCRACOKE INLET.                   
ORROCK/GATES                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 130035  nc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
158 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO MOVE ATLC LOW WESTWARD.            
LOW IN VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST BY 12Z SUN...MOVING                 
NORTH 36-48 HOURS AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN LONGWAVE TROUGH. NO TROPICAL             
CHARACTERISTICS PER LATEST TPC DISCUSSION. THEN COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO STATE TUESDAY.                            
LATEST SATELLITE TREND SHOW LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS INTO EASTERN                 
PORTIONS OF CWA BUT HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL             
SECTIONS AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR. CLOUDS ARE ERODING. WATER VAPOR       
SHOWING DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. ALSO MSAS SHOWING STRONG                
DEWPOINT GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. RAH DEWPOINT CURRENTLY AT              
39.                                                                             
TONIGHT...AS LOW MOVES CLOSER TO COAST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD           
WEST. TIMING OF CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY...OVERCOMING DRY AIR. 15Z RUC             
SHOW 70+ RH OVER MOST OF CWA BY 03Z. FWC INDICATING VERY LOW CIGS               
(CAT 2) 09Z TONIGHT. WHEN CLOUDS DO ARRIVE EXPECT LOW CIGS IN WHICN             
THER COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE. AGAIN CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY           
A ROLE ON LOWS TONIGHT. THINK CENTRAL/WESTERN SECTIONS WILL STAY                
CLEAR FOR AWHILE (TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO). THICKER CLOUDS COMING             
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RADIATE DOWN TIL THEN. CAN EXPECT          
SOME LOWS IN THE 50S IN THESE SECTIONS. DENSE CLOUDS MAY NOT MAKE IT            
TO GREENSBORO AREA.                                                             
SUNDAY...AS LOW MOVES INLAND EARLY SUNDAY...MOST CLOUDINESS WILL BE             
IN EAST AND LESSER AS YOU GO WEST. MODELS ARE INDICATING LIGHT PRECIP           
CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 75 TO 80 BEST IN THE             
AREAS OF MORE CLOUDS. AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S AREAS OF LESS CLOUDS.              
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CONTINUE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S              
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.                                                          
EXTENDED...LATEST MRF BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO                  
WEDNESDAY. CROSS SECTION SHOW FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT LITTLE      
ALOFT. ALSO FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SO THIS SPELLS        
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN. FOR NOW ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO GO            
WIDELY SCATTERED TUESDAY..CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.                        
HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S.                                   
HAVE A GREAT EVENING.                                                           
.RDU...NONE.                                                                    
RA                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 121722  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
940 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS LOOP SHOWS HI PRES CONTINUING TO RIDGE DOWN THE E             
CST WHILE AN AREA OF LO PRES APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS FROM                    
OFFSHORE. RDG PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN THRU THE AFTN AS THE LO MOVES               
ASHORE EARLY THIS EVE. VIS PIX SHOW PLENTY OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE              
SPREADING ACROSS ERN NC. 09Z RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE H8 RH                 
FIELD & SPREADS 70+ PCNT INTO THE NERN CORNER OF THE FA BY MID-AFTN.            
BUT HIGHEST MOISTURE STAYS N SO WILL STAY PTSUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE                
AFTN LOOKS GOOD W/ LITTLE MOISTURE & PLENTY OF SUN. A RELAXED LO-LVL            
FLOW W/ AN INVERTED TROF DEVELOPING ALG THE CST WILL ENHANCE                    
PROSPECTS FOR A RESULTANT BOUNDARY & LIFT THIS AFTN. BUT A DRY & MORE           
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROHIBIT ACTIVITY. TEMPS IN LOWER TO             
MID 80S FINE BASED ON LOCAL SCHEMES.                                            
CWF: WINDS BECMG FAIRLY LGT ALG THE CST WHICH AGREES W/ 03Z MESO-ETA            
& RUC PROGS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES PLANNED.                                        
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
927 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL NGT UNDRWAY ACRS THE CWA ATTM. UPR LO E OF            
THE DELMARVA KPNG GUD WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVR US AND WL CONT TO BE THE             
TRND FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS. BIG ? IS HOW LOW TO GO FOR TEMPS TNT.                
SAT PICS SHO MSTLY CLR SKIES IN PLACE WI JST SOME PATCHY THN CI/AC              
MOVG ACRS AREA FM TIME TO TIME. DWPTS RNG FM ABT 53 TO 60 IN SC                 
PORTION OF CWA TO 60 TO 68 ACRS GA PORTION. WNDS LGT SE ATTM AND MAY            
TRY TO START BRINGG SLGHTLY HIER DWPTS INTO SRN CWA OVRNGT. PROBLM IS           
THAT WE LIKELY DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND...OUTSIDE OF THE COAST...WL              
KEEP LWR DWPTS (AND THEREFORE TEMPS) THAN BOTH RUC AND MESOETA MODELS           
INDCT. OVRALL...WITH LGT WNDS AND MSTLY CLR SKIES...GUD RADIATNL                
COOLNG SHUD TAKE PLACE.                                                         
WL NEED TO TAKE TEMPS DOWN A CAT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MORE ACRS                 
INLAND SC WHR DRIEST AIR CONTS TO HOLD FIRM.                                    
CWF...CONDITIONS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE WATERS. BUOYS REPORTING                
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND 3 TO 4 FT. WILL REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION                  
WORDING FOR GA WATERS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST               
OBS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AS HIGH TIDE               
WILL BE OVER IN ALL AREAS BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WATER LEVELS WILL BE             
ON THE DECLINE.                                                                 
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
WOODWORTH/SLF                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 130114  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
ONLY CLOUDINESS TO SPEAK OF ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IS BLOWOFF             
FROM ERN KY CONVECTION AND MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS ERN NC            
ASSOC WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES. CI OVER MTNS SHOULD DIMINISH AS CLOUD         
TOPS CONT TO WARM IN LATEST IR IMAGERY OVER KY. STRATOCU MOVING INLAND          
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE WESTWARD BEYOND GSO AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES          
ALONG NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER MTNS.                                        
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS WORKED WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT AND ERN FOOTHILLS           
THIS EVENING YIELDING DEWPOINTS MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. NONE OF THE         
MODELS...NOT EVEN THE 21Z RUC...HANDLED THIS INTRUSION VERY WELL. WILL          
ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD ABOUT ONE CATEGORY FOR OVERNIGHT MINS AS LIGHT            
WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATION.                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
HG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 130059  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN HALF OF FA AND             
CLOUDS SLOW TO ERODE.  CLEARING WILL LEAD TO CU FIELD DEVELOPMENT               
WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN.  WILL GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY MOST AREA                 
EXCEPT EASTERN COUNTIES.  TEMPERATURES MIGHT NEED SOME MINOR                    
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.  LATEST RUC SHOWS MOISTURE FINALLY GETTING                 
SHUNTED WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS IN GA COUNTIES HAS MOVED               
AWAY OR DISSIPATED AND WILL DROP MENTION OF.              DELGADO               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 121402  sc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
949 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
FCST TODAY APPEARS ON TRACK. SCT CU MIDLANDS WITH BULK OF CLOUDINESS            
CURRENTLY PUSHING SW THRU CSRA. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TREND OF DRIER AND         
MORE STABLE AIR ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE NE...BUT HANGS ON TO HIGHER        
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR THE CSRA.           
WILL GO SUNNY OR MSTLY SUNNY NE AND BECMG PRTLY CLDY CSRA THIS AFT.             
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1030 AM MDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                     
LATEST SFC ANALYS SHOWS WK TROF FM SE WY TO LOW IN SRN CANADA.                  
SATELLITE INDC SOME CLOUD DEVLPMNT ALONG THIS LINE... SO COLD FRONT             
MAY BE DEVELOPING AS ADVERTISED IN MODELS. WV IMAGES SUGGEST SW/V               
OVR NW MT IS MOVING A LITTLE QUICKER THAN 00Z MODELS INDC. DIGITAL              
TIMING EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THIS SW/V INTO NW SD/NE WY BY 00-01Z...               
WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN 12Z ETA AND RUC.                                          
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN                  
AFTERNOON POPS. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW             
END OF THE RANGES GIVEN AND NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE ATTM.                     
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
MURPHY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 121509  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
935 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GOOD                     
SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  DEWPOINTS ARE LITTLE             
LOWER TODAY AND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CWA...ONLY AN             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE                  
MOISTURE IS GREATER AND SUBSIDENCE IS LESS.                                     
LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SHOW TODAY BEING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VERY                 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL MOTION.  WITH THIS IN MIND CURRENT                
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...AND SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.               
HAVE A GOOD DAY...                                                              
PDK #2                                                                          
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
845 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
LOOKING AT SATELLITE WV...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS               
SLOWING...WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE 12Z MODELS. 18Z             
MESOETA ONLY BRINGS THE UPPER LOW TO THE COASTLINE AS WELL. 21Z RUC             
IS MORE AGRESSIVE & EVEN BRINGS LIGHT PCPN INTO NERN PARTS OF THE               
FA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS & PLAY DOWN ANY PCPN- AT             
LEAST IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLDS WILL               
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA. THEY HAVE REACHED A DAN-LYH-SHD LINE &               
WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...MAY               
LOWER THEM A BIT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE...AND            
WILL RAISE THEM IN THE EAST AS DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER              
60S AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.                                                
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JJ                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 130036  va                                      

EASTERN WISCONSIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HAS ARISEN IN THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS WITH THE                  
ARRIVAL OF THE NEW MODEL RUNS AT 12Z.  FCST CHALLENGE NOW IS GOING              
FM A RATHER TRANQUIL SUNDAY FCST FOR THE S-SE TO A RATHER WET ONE.              
OF THE 4 LONG RANGE MODELS TO LOOK AT...IT IS A SPLIT DECISION.                 
ONE OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES IS THE RATHER SIGGY VORT OVR SW KS             
EXPECTED TO HEAD E OR NE.  THE NGM/AVN DON/T APPEAR TO HAVE                     
INITIALIZED THE STRENGTH OF THIS VORT VERY WELL AND MORE OR LESS                
WASH IT OUT OR TAKE IT DUE E FM IT/S CURRENT POSITION. THE ETA/UWNMS            
APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE S/W...             
CONFIRMED BY THE NEW RUC...AND TAKE IT RIGHT INTO NRN IL/SRN WI ON              
SUN. WHAT HELPS LIFT THIS NORTH IS THE SLIGHTLY BACKING FLOW CAUSED             
BY THE ARRIVAL OF A CANADIAN S/W TROF.  THESE TWO MERGE OVR AREA                
SUN/SUN NGT.  THE S/W SHULD WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES NE INTO                     
CONFLUENT UPR FLOW. HOWEVER...OTHER DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL COME FROM            
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE RGT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR               
JET. THE UWNMS HAS CAUSED EVEN MORE CONCERN AS IT ALSO BRINGS A TIGHT           
UPR LVL JET MAX UP FM THE SOUTH WITH THE KS S/W. THIS PRODUCES A PD             
OF CLASSIC JET COUPLING FOR ADDED UVV. CONSEQUENTLY...THE UW MODEL              
HAS GONE BALLISTIC ON QPF RGT UNDER THE ASSOCIATED AGEO CIRCULATION             
OF THE COUPLED JETS.  ALL THIS OCCURS WITH THE TROF NRLY STNRY AT               
THE SFC FOR ADDED FOCUS.                                                        
ALTHOUGH THE SFC TROF/FNT WL LIKELY HAVE SLIPPED S OF WI OVRNGT...              
THE COOLER AIR OVR SRN WI WL BE VRY SHALLOW WITH MOIST SWRLY FLOW NOT           
TOO FAR UP.  LOOKS LIKE A GUD OVRRNG SITUATION PSBL.                            
WL UP POPS OVR SE TO LIKELY CAT FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS             
BACK FARTHER W AS THINGS EVOLVE.                                                
ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE SE...AN AREA               
THAT HAS GOTTEN A LOT OF RAIN LATELY.  IF THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE            
S/W AND COUPLE JET MATERIALIZE...THEN HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT OUT OF                
THE QUESTION.  ADDITIONALLY...OUR HYDROLOGIST IS OUT OF THE OFFICE              
THIS WEEK...A SURE SIGN OF RAIN...                                              
.UWNMS...HAS THE MOST DETAIL OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOOKS SOMEWHAT               
LIKE THE ETA...BUT STRONGER.  DEVELOPS UNBELIEVEABLE UVV WITH                   
COUPLED JET SOLUTION AT 30 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...QPF VRY HIGH AND               
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SUFFERING FM FEEDBACK /?/.                                 
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRB 120928  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
ANALYSIS SHOWS FIRST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE UNDERWAY IN PAST SEVERAL                
DAYS. STRONG SFC PRESSURE RISES OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN PLAINS ARE                
SUPPORTED BY DIVING JET INTO DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED PACIFIC               
NORTHWEST TROUGH WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONG            
HEIGHT RISES UPSTREAM. ALL THIS SUGGESTS FRONT DRAPED ACROSS                    
FORECAST AREA SHOULD AND IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD BRINGING            
IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR. THIS MAY NOT OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 8 TO 12 HOURS           
AS A SHORT WAVE LOCATED AT 06Z OVER SE KANSAS IS HELPING TO CREATE              
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FRONTAL UPGLIDE WHICH WILL END NW TO SE BY              
LATE PM. LATEST POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT AT 06Z WAS LOCATED ALONG              
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO BURLINGTON IOWA THEN TO WEAK SURFACE LOW SE OF             
KANSAS CITY AND THEN INTO NORTHERN TEXAS MOVING SE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.             
PROFILERS SUPPORT SFC ANALYSIS OF PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM WITH           
BACKING OF WINDS. AS FRONT MOVES OUT OF CWA..THE CHANCES OF HEAVY               
PRECIP FROM CONVECTION WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY WITH MAINLY LIGHT                 
SHOWERS OR A WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST RISK STILL FAR SE ZONES               
WHICH LEANING TOWARD CANCELING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY BUT              
WILL MONITOR TIL ISSUANCE TIME FOR ANY LAST MINUTE CHANGES IN ONGOING           
PRECIP.                                                                         
THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS TIMING DISSIPATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND              
PRECIP ALONG WITH TERMINATION OF CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH.                     
MODELS HANDLE TERMINATION/MOVEMENT OF PRECIP DIFFERENT WITH ETA                 
WEAKEST AND NGM AND AVN SLOWER AND HEAVIER WITH 06Z RUC UNUSUALLY               
HEAVY OF PRECIP AND APPEARS UNRELIABLE THROUGH NOON FOR SE ZONES.               
ALL BRING COOLER AIR AND DRIER AIR IN BY EVENING BEHIND FRONT WITH              
CLEARING ALL SUGGESTED BY MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS               
STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LOWER HUMIDITIES AND                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER DAYTIME CUMULUS FOR MONDAY.           
AVN AND NGM SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVECTION FROM WEAK REINFORCING SHOT             
OF ENERGY BUT LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION AS CURRENT PRECIP FIELDS ALONG           
WITH SATELLITE AND WIND PROFILER FIELDS MATCH BEST WITH ETA VERSUS              
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.  TEMPS THOUGH ETA STILL TOO COOL AND GO WITH              
FWC/FAN BLEND EXCEPT TODAY WHICH WILL LOWER PARTS OF FORECAST AREA              
SLIGHTLY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING CLOUDS AND SCATTERED PRECIP.                 
TODAY PARTS OF ZONES WILL SPLIT TODAY TO HANDLE ENDING PRECIP WITH              
HIGHEST POPS AND CLOUDS TO SOUTHEAST.  MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT              
FAR NW WHICH WILL USE PARTLY SUNNY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. TONIGHT GO            
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER AS LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 10               
DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST SEVERAL DAY MINIMUMS. AGAIN...MONDAY LOOKS             
NICE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NGM AS              
APPEARS TOO SLOW ON COOL AIR ARRIVING DESPITE SUNSHINE AND ALSO                 
INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH DIURNAL MIXING WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.            
QPF AMOUNTS TODAY WILL OPT FOR LESS THAN QUARTER INCH IN SOUTHEAST 5            
COUNTIES AND NEAR TRACE BASIN AVERAGES ALONG MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND              
DRY TO NORTHWEST.                                                               
EXTENDED PERIODS ALL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED MAJOR SHIFT IN JET PATTERN           
AS UNUSUALLY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER EAST WITH CANADIAN               
HIGH MOVING IN THROUGH FRIDAY.  ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW STRONG SHORT               
WAVE WITH HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AS DID EARLIER MRF BUT LATEST MRF/AVN            
RUN SUPPORTS WEAKER SOLUTION FOR SHORT WAVE.  AGREE WITH MRF/AVN AS             
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CYCLOGENESIS BUT STILL OPT FOR            
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WORDING.                                               
COORDINATION...LOT.                                                             
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE             
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDVN ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT.                           
CID BB 077/056 072/049 064  162-0                                               
MLI MB 078/057 075/052 068  16510                                               
DBQ MB 075/054 071/048 067  162-0                                               
BRL WB 078/059 078/054 071  16730                                               
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
NICHOLS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 130227  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
300 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
ALREADY ALOT OF SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY TO MY WEST.  RUC MODEL              
SHOWS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST                
THIS MORNING.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN MAKING SOME               
PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION.  CONSIDERING THE AVAILBLE MOISTURE...SOME            
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SEVERAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS...WILL GO WITH             
LIKELY PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOR THE REGION TODAY.  TEMPERATURES                
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO ALL THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.               
THEN TONIGHT...WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH ALOT OF SHOWERS...AND A              
FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS DIGGING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.  SURFACE FRONT             
IS FORECASTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST              
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.  UNTIL THEN...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE.              
MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INVADES THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.                   
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSER TO AVN MOS TEMPS.  NGM MOS HAS BEEN BOUNCING            
AROUND LATELY.                                                                  
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MJS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 130250  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
230 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS AND LOW TEMPS.             
UPPER LVL TROUGH SWINGS DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY.             
AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT NOW IN NW WI...WILL EXIT CWA BY MID                   
MORNING. A LARGE COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD DOWN             
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU 48 HRS. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH               
HANDLING OF UPPER LVL AND SFC FEATURES THRU 48 HRS WITH JUST SMALL              
DIFFERENCES NOTED. ETA DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BEST HANDLING OF VORT                
INTO ND...MORE IN LINE WITH SAT IMAGERY...AS DOES RUC.                          
MODELS KEEP THE CI OVER US THIS MORNING...AND MAINLY NW WI THIS AFTN            
AS VORT SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CU POP TDY...                 
ESPECIALLY NRN NE MN BEING CLOSEST TO COMMA CLOUD SHIELD. HIGHEST LOW           
LVL RH JUST NICKS INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT ALL MODELS TO BRING THIS           
MOISTURE DOWN TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY AS TROUGH ROTATES THRU AND MAIN             
UPPER LVL TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SE ACROSS GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED THESE            
CLDS TO PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING IN NRN NE MN TNGT AS GRADIENT                
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ALL MODELS HAVE 850 TEMPS DROPPING TO -2C NEAR                
CANADIAN BORDER BY 12Z MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ALSO A PROBLEM WITH LOWS            
AS GRADIENT RELAXES...LOWER DEW POINTS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE 5-10           
DEGREES COOLER THAN TDY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE THRU SO                    
HOPEFULLY WE WILL SEE MORE CLDS...OTHERWISE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A            
FROST ADVISORY.                                                                 
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
TAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 130204  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
TWO DISTINCT FEATURES IN UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHC FOR              
SHWRS/TSTMS TO CWFA PRBLY INTO START OF AFTN. LEAD UPPER CIRCULATION            
PROFILERS INDICATE OVER N CNTRL KS WILL LKLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE               
SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS SE NEB AND SW IA DURG MRNG AS IT LIFTS OUT ENEWD.            
RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING RH FIELD OF THIS FEATURE BEST WHICH WAS              
LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED FM COMPLEX THAT FORMED FRI NITE OVER WRN HI         
PLNS AND THEN MOVED ENEWD ACROSS PLNS SAT. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES             
INDICATE HVY RAIN OCCURING IN LOCATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL                 
CONTINUE TO HANDLE WITH NOWCASTS OR FFS AS CONDTIONS WARRANT.                   
UPSTREAM SHORT/WV CAUSING SHWRS/TSTMS CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. PER            
06Z RUC...ALTHO SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO LKLY           
BRING A CHC FOR SHWRS AND FEW TSTMS WITH ITS PASSAGE THRU START OF              
AFTN. CLDS TO DECREASE LTR THIS AFTN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THRU WITH            
CLEAR TO PC CONDS LKLY TNGT. MON APPEARS DRY IN CWFA WITH MAIN RISK FOR         
SHWRS/TSTMS WRM AREAS OF NEB WITH WAA AND DESTABILIZATION AS LEE LOW            
FORMS. WILL PRBLY NEED TO ADD MISSING MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD TO EXTENDED           
FCST  TO ADD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS AS UVV AND DESTABILIZATION SPREAD EWD.         
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
WIESE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 130800  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
927 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL NGT UNDRWAY ACRS THE CWA ATTM. UPR LO E OF            
THE DELMARVA KPNG GUD WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVR US AND WL CONT TO BE THE             
TRND FOR THE OVRNGT HOURS. BIG ? IS HOW LOW TO GO FOR TEMPS TNT.                
SAT PICS SHO MSTLY CLR SKIES IN PLACE WI JST SOME PATCHY THN CI/AC              
MOVG ACRS AREA FM TIME TO TIME. DWPTS RNG FM ABT 53 TO 60 IN SC                 
PORTION OF CWA TO 60 TO 68 ACRS GA PORTION. WNDS LGT SE ATTM AND MAY            
TRY TO START BRINGG SLGHTLY HIER DWPTS INTO SRN CWA OVRNGT. PROBLM IS           
THAT WE LIKELY DECOUPLE COMPLETELY AND...OUTSIDE OF THE COAST...WL              
KEEP LWR DWPTS (AND THEREFORE TEMPS) THAN BOTH RUC AND MESOETA MODELS           
INDCT. OVRALL...WITH LGT WNDS AND MSTLY CLR SKIES...GUD RADIATNL                
COOLNG SHUD TAKE PLACE.                                                         
WL NEED TO TAKE TEMPS DOWN A CAT MOST LOCATIONS...AND MORE ACRS                 
INLAND SC WHR DRIEST AIR CONTS TO HOLD FIRM.                                    
CWF...CONDITIONS HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE WATERS. BUOYS REPORTING                
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT AND 3 TO 4 FT. WILL REMOVE EXERCISE CAUTION                  
WORDING FOR GA WATERS OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST               
OBS. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AS HIGH TIDE               
WILL BE OVER IN ALL AREAS BY ISSUANCE TIME AND WATER LEVELS WILL BE             
ON THE DECLINE.                                                                 
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
WOODWORTH/SLF                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 130114  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
845 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999                                                      
LOOKING AT SATELLITE WV...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS               
SLOWING...WHICH WOULD BE RIGHT ON SCHEDULE WITH THE 12Z MODELS. 18Z             
MESOETA ONLY BRINGS THE UPPER LOW TO THE COASTLINE AS WELL. 21Z RUC             
IS MORE AGRESSIVE & EVEN BRINGS LIGHT PCPN INTO NERN PARTS OF THE               
FA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE OTHER MODELS & PLAY DOWN ANY PCPN- AT             
LEAST IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE LOW CLDS WILL               
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FA. THEY HAVE REACHED A DAN-LYH-SHD LINE &               
WILL MAKE BETTER PROGRESS WITH SUNSET. LOW TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...MAY               
LOWER THEM A BIT IN THE FAR WEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE...AND            
WILL RAISE THEM IN THE EAST AS DEWPOINTS ARE RISING INTO THE LOWER              
60S AS THE CLOUD COVER MOVES IN.                                                
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JJ                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 130036  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
...UPDATE FOCUSES ON -RA THREAT IN SE CWA...AND CLOUDS ELSEWHERE...             
QUASI-STATIONARY BDRY/TROF OVER E CWA THIS MORNING WITH WITH STRONG             
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING NE ALONG BDRY. 12Z RUC PROGS 500MB VORT MAX TO            
MV NE TO GRB BY 18Z AND EXIT INTO E LK SUPERIOR BY 00Z. SHORTWAVE               
QUITE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...WITH SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT OVER E               
WI. SFC WAVE ALSO INDICATED BY SFC OBS/MSAS ANALYSIS OVER NE IL AT              
15Z. 12Z RUC MAINTAINS QV-CONV OVR E CWA THROUGH 00Z. SFC OBS                   
INDICATED -RA/RA SHIELD OVR E WI SPREADDING N OF 12ZRUC FCST. PER               
COORD WITH APX...WILL INCREASE POPS OVER E COUNTIES FM CHANCE TO                
CATEGORICAL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS PRECIP SHIELD OVRSPREADS N LK                 
MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO ADJUST MAX TMPS             
DOWNWARD IN THIS AREA.                                                          
TO WEST...VIS IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTING COLD FRNT FROM DLH-MSP AT               
15Z. PROG FRONT TO ENTER SW CWA AT 19Z...WITH WND SHFT TO NW. FRONT             
SHOULD REACH MQT-IMT BY 23-00Z...WITH CLEARING BEHIND.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 131443  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1043 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
KAPX 88D LOOP SHOWS MAINLY SCT SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE NW PORTION OF             
THE CWA...WITH A FEW HEAVIER CELLS AROUND GLADWIN/ARENAC COUNTIES.              
LATEST IMAGES FROM UPSTREAM RADAR KGRB SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY              
MODERATE ISOLD HEAVY RAIN CREEPING NE OUT OF SE WI THROUGH CENTRAL              
LAKE MI TOWARD NW LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH                
DPVA AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A DEPART JET MAX. LATEST RUC              
POINTS TOWARD DPVA INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ERN UPR AND              
NW LOWER MI ZONES NW OF A LINE FROM HTL TO PRESQUE ISLE. ALTHOUGH...            
CURRENT NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD IS FARTHER N THAN THE POSITION            
SUGGESTED BY LATEST RUC. WILL HAVE TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL              
ACROSS ERN UPR AND NW/N CENTRAL LOWER MI ZONES AS OUTLINED ABOVE.               
VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN                   
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT. MODIFIED REGIONAL SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES OF              
500 TO 600...LI'S OF -2 WITH SFC DWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER            
60S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SOLAR HEATING            
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE EVEN IN SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL              
MAINTAIN SHRA/TSRA BUT WILL DROP POPS TO MORE OF THE SCT/LIKELY                 
CATEGORY AS BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY NW OF THAT AREA.                      
WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWNWARD FOR ERN UPR AND               
FAR NRN LOWER GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED.              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 131336  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
925 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
VIS SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING CLOUD DECK SLOW TO                
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. BREAKS EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN LOWER...BUT               
MORE SOLID OVERCAST...JUST WORKING ITS WAY ONTO MICHIGAN SHORELINE OF           
LAKE MICHIGAN. RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH INDICATING MID LEVEL DRYING TO             
BE SLOW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE... HAVE UPDATED WORDING              
IN FORECAST TO INDICATE A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING...WITH SOME                     
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.                                                             
WSR-88D INDICATING SHOWERS...ALBEIT LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...BREAKING              
OUT ACROSS CWA. THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED /MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON/                
PHRASE FROM FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION TIMING TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE        
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH MORNING...STILL BELIEVE LOCALLY HEAVY                   
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...EVENING.                    
.DTX...NONE                                                                     
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 131042  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
640 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUC SHOWING THAT THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN             
OVER IL WILL LIFT INTO SW LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.               
WILL INCREASE PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TO CATEGORICAL FOR MY SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES.  ALSO WILL ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING AS WELL.                            
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MJS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 130833  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THE THREAT FOR SOME SPRINKLES            
OVER THE WESTERN CWA. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES A VORT               
MAX OVER SD. 300 MB JET MAX REMAINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH               
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN              
MN. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING OVER            
THE WESTERN CWA AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME LIGHT            
RETURNS OVER EASTERN SD. THE VORT MAX AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION             
OF THE JET WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SO              
THE THREAT WILL BE EARLY ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON BASED             
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE            
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AND IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND              
NORTH. WILL ADJUST THE WORDING A LITTLE.                                        
NEXT FEATURE TO KEY ON IS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND 80KT 300 MB JET             
MAX THAT PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING. RUC MID             
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 7.5 DEG C/KM WITH STRONG 700 MB                   
THETA-E ADVECTION INDICATED. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN               
ALREADY STREAMING SE ACROSS ND AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS               
SOME PRECIPITATION FOR THE NW CWA TONIGHT BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE              
THE POPS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER SEEING 12Z MODEL                 
RUNS. 500 MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW -20 DEG C OVER ND AND THIS COLD TROF             
IS HEADED SE.                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 130822  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED...NO UPDATE TO ZONES PLANNED               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.  LOOKING AT OBSERVED         
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE ATMOSPHERE           
UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON THUS AFTER 00Z        
ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING BY 00Z COULD           
GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT              
DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG OR STRATUS IN        
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA WHERE                
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS          
GOOD.  POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST BUT          
NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE IN         
FORECAST.  BORSUM.                                                              
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023                                                
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023                                                
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023                                                
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022                                                
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022                                                
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022                                                
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBYZ 131516  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES PLANNED.  LOOKING AT          
OBSERVED AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD MAKE             
ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE...BUT WILL NEED ALL THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON            
THUS AFTER 00Z ISOLATED LOOKS GOOD. 12Z RUC INDICATED THAT LWT SOUNDING         
BY 00Z COULD GENERATE 250-500 CAPE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AFTERNOON             
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF JUDITHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW. DID NOTE SOME FOG          
OR STRATUS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST ON EARLY VIS IMAGERY...THUS ANOTHER AREA        
WHERE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP...BUT AGAIN AFTER 00Z. OTHERWISE FORECAST          
LOOKS GOOD.  POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST        
BUT NORTHEAST WINDS THAT ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP WOULD CAP MAXES TO THOSE        
IN FORECAST.  BORSUM.                                                           
BIL BE 077/054 071/051 075 59023                                                
LVM .. 077/052 070/... ... 59023                                                
HDN .. 079/052 072/... ... 59023                                                
MLS .. 077/052 073/050 ... 59022                                                
4BQ .. 078/051 074/... ... 59022                                                
BHK .. 075/048 072/... ... 59022                                                
SHR BE 075/050 070/048 072 59023                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 130924  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1010 AM SUN JUN 13 1999                                                         
CRRNT TREND SHOWS LOW LVL MSTR INCREASING ACRS NYS.  RUC ANALYSIS ON            
MSTR LOOP SHOWS LOW AND MID LVL RH INCRSG PAST 12 HRS AND RUC FCST              
IS FOR TREND TO CONT.  MSTR IS DEEPER THAN PREV DAY SO WILL NOT MIX             
OUT AS READILY THEREFORE WILL CONT WITH MSTLY CLDY FCST FROM PREV               
PCKG.  ACRS CNTRL ZNS SOME CU DVLPG AND BREAKS IN CLDS WITH ONSET OF            
DAYTIME HTG WHICH IS MAKING A TOUGH CALL HOW MUCH CLD CVR WILL                  
AFFECT TEMPS.  WITH THE INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR THINK THERE WILL BE MORE            
CLDS THAN SUN SO WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS BUT GIVE A LARGER RANGE.  ACRS            
FAR WRN AND NRNN ZNS HTG HAS CAUSED CU FIELD TO DVLP WITH MUCH MORE             
SUNSHINE.  SYR ALREADY 77 AND PEO, UCA AT 75 AND CLIMBING FAST.                 
HWVR FEEL THAT INCRSG LOW LVL MSTR WILL CAUSE CU TO FILL IN AND KEEP            
TEMPS FM REACHING YESETERDAY'S LVLS.  ACRS THE S A FEW SPRINKLES                
FALLING OVR ERN PA AND SERN NY BUT NOT A LOT OF ACTIVITY.  CRRNT 30             
PCNT POPS LOOKS GOOD FOR THERE.                                                 
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KBUF 131409   ny                                     

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
RUC BRINGS LOW JUST TO NORTH OF VIRGINIA BEACH...AND THAT IS                    
CURRENTLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. CLOUDS HAVE SPILLED JUST OVER                      
THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WITH SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF                     
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTION. FAY REPORTED 3/4 MILE             
IN HEAVY RAIN LAST HOUR WITH 0.08 IN THE BUCKET.                                
STABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THREAT OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH                 
LIS IN -1 TO -3 RANGE. BUT AS YOU WOULD EXPECT AND AS MODELS                    
INDICATED YESTERDAY...LIGHTNING STRIKES CONFINED NEAR AND NORTH OF              
LOW. WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED.                  
KNOCKED DOWN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WHERE EXPECT CLOUD              
COVER TO HANG ON THE LONGEST. DO EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO                
EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE PLENTIFUL AND INSTABILITY PRESENT...EXPECT A GOOD                
AMOUNT OF CUMULUS BUILDUPS...ESPECIALLY NORTH 2/3RDS OF FORECAST                
AREA. INVERSION AROUND 650 MB SHOULD PUT A LID ON THINGS.                       
CWF...NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS                  
OF 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED             
TO OCCUR.                                                                       
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
DIGIORGI                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 131352  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
951 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
IT IS APPEARING LESS AND LESS LIKELY THAT OUR PRESENT SFC                       
LOW...MOVING OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST AT 13Z...WILL GIVE ERN NC SOME              
MUCH NEEDED RAIN. GIVEN A MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG AND LI'S OF            
-4 OFF THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS             
IN FOR THE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY GIVEN BREAKS SHOWING UP ON VIS               
SATPIX AND CONTINUED DRYING DEPICTED BY LATEST RUC MODEL. STILL AM              
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC FOR MUCH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN               
POPPING THRU...WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPS UPWARD A BIT. THE GOOD NEWS IS             
THAT ALL OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING            
NEAR OUR AREA IN THE TUES/WEDS TIME FRAME WITH A GOOD CHC FOR SOME              
SOAKING RAINS. WE'RE KEEPING OUR FINGERS CROSSED.                               
COASTAL...ALL THE MARINE OBS SHOWING LGT NW WINDS CURRENTLY. WILL               
INTIALIZE WITH NW BECOMING S LATE. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS NEEDED.                  
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 130636  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
SOME DRIER AIR...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN              
PORTION OF OUR FA. MOISTURE GRADIENT OBSERVED ACROSS CTRL PORTION OF            
FA AS NOTED WITH SFC RUC DWPT AND THTA-E FIELDS. WK SFC TROUGH                  
INDICATED AS WELL EXTENDING E-W ACROSS SW PORTION OF FA...WITH                  
ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENCE PATTERN. BEST INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME               
SET UP N/S ACROSS WRN PORTIO OF FA.                                             
FEEL BEST CHC OF PRECIP TDY ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA. WILL THUS KEEP               
POPS AS IS. WILL AGAIN MONITOR WATER VAPOR DEFORMATION ZONE                     
CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS FA FOR POSSIBLE INDICATOR OF CONVECTIVE                 
DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS                          
YESTERDAY...BUT WBZ SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER...NEAR 9 KFT. CONVECTIVE              
INSTABILITY NOT AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY AS WELL...WITH DIFFERENTIAL               
THETA-E BETWEEN 25 AND 30. THUS EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SVR...LARGE                
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. POSSIBLE FLOODING INDICATED AS WELL WITH                
SLOW MVMNT OF STORMS...ESPECIALLY IF DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS                     
RECEIVING RAINFALL YESTERDAY.                                                   
WILL ADJUST TEMPS A BIT.                                                        
MISILN OUT IN A FEW.                                                            
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
DISTEFANO                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KCLE 131345  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1030 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH                  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A GOOD PORTION              
OF AREA.  DESPITE FORECAST CAPES OF 1500-1800J...BOUYANCY CANNOT                
OVERCOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW.  WEAK TROUGH              
EXTENDS ACROSS FA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON PER RUC BUT FLOW WEAK AND              
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION.                  
MOUNTAINS MIGHT SEE A SHOWER OR TWO LATER TODAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO               
MAKE MENTION IN ZONES.  MOST CHANGES THIS UPDATE WILL BE COSMETIC.              
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 131430  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1033 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO MAINLY ADJUST WORDING TO A THICKER CLD                 
COVER...AND HIT PCPN A LITTLE HARDER IN THE NWRN PTN OF CWA. MID LVL            
SHRTWV PASSING OVR AREA TDAY. BOTH NLG AND WDL PROFILERS SHOW                   
BACKING WINDS BLO 700MB. BASICALLY...HIGH PRES WL KEEP NRLY LLVL                
FLOW THRU THE AFTN...AND RUC CORRECTLY SHOWS DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN             
FM THE SFC THRU 850 MB...AS DEW PTS CONT TO DROP. CRNTLY...LAPS SFC             
BASED LI'S MAINLY SHOW THE CWA AT OR ABV ZERO...WITH THE RUC                    
PROGGING ONLY A SLIGHT DESTABILIZATION THRU THE AFTN...MAINLY DUE TO            
SOME MID LVL COOLING. CRNT CAPES AND ETA CAPE PROGS ARE ARND 500 IS             
ALL. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...THERE IS ENUF INSTABILITY AND COOL AIR             
ALOFT TO PRBLY MAINTAIN SHWRS THAT ARE CRNLY IN NWRN CWA...MOVG                 
SLIGHTLY EWRD. BUT LITTLE ELSE SHOULD HAPPEN.                                   
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 131519  sd                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
950 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
CONVECTION LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT'S ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE              
OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. WHILE THINGS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT              
STABLE NOW, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH GPS DERIVED              
SOUNDING PW OF AOA 2" THE AIRMASS OVER SE TX SHOULD REBOUND NICELY              
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A CONTINUED ON-              
SHORE FLOW/SEABREEZE ENHANCED PCPN ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST AND A              
COOL FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NC TX. LATEST RUC HAS THE COOL FRONT ALL              
THE WAY TO CLL BY LATE THIS AFTN AND GIVEN 12Z UA DATA (INDICATING              
NOT ALL THAT BAD HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE FRONT), AM NOT WILLING TO              
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH SELY FLOW ALREADY RETURNING TO WRN              
PORTIONS OF THE FA (AND PC SKIES THERE ALREADY)...WILL BREAK THESE              
ZONES OUT AND PLACE HIGHEST POPS THERE. OTRWS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO              
GOING PACKAGE. 41/45                                                            
.KHGX...NONE.                                                                   
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL EE 087/071 090/068 087 633                                                  
IAH TT 087/072 089/069 087 534                                                  
GLS TT 087/079 089/075 087 544                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 131441  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
941 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
AFTER VIEWING LATEST KSJT 88D TRENDS AND THE 12Z RUC...LOOKS LIKE THE           
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY HOLD OFF OUT WEST.  CONVECTION WEST          
OF THE CWA HAS DECREASED AND WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHES THE CONCHO               
VALLEY...PARTLY DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING EAST AHEAD OF IT...AND           
PARTLY DUE TO THE BEST FOCUS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE           
STAYING OUT WEST.  RUC MODEL NAILS THIS FEATURE.  SOME WEAK CONVECTION          
HAS FIRED OVER STERLING COUNTY...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD.  GOES                  
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPE OF LESS THAN 300 J/KG.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER         
OVER THE AREA ALSO HELPING TO KEEP THINGS FAIRLY STABLE.  DO NOT                
ANTICIPATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...JUST HEAVY RAIN.  LATEST SURFACE           
ANALYSIS PUT A HARD TO FIND WEAK COLD FRONT FROM SOUTH OF KSPS TO NORTH         
OF KSJT TO THE BIG BEND...AND AGREE WITH MORNING SHIFT THAT PRECIP              
BEHIND THIS FRONT NOT AS LIKELY AS AREAS FURTHER SOUTH.  DUE TO THE             
SATURATED GROUND...ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL...EITHER OVER THE NORTHERN           
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...OR EVEN OVER THE BIG           
COUNTRY COULD QUICKLY CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS...SO WILL KEEP A SHARP EYE            
OUT FOR CONVECTION.                                                             
GOING FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN BIG COUNTRY MIGHT BE A LITTLE                    
PESSIMISTIC AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...AND WOULD LIKE TO TWEAK BACK POPS          
A CATEGORY.  TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK FINE.                                   
20                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KFWD 131441  tx                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
945 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
88D KMLB CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE SPACE                
COAST FROM SATELLITE BEACH TO PALM BAY MOVING NORTHWEST. LATEST RUC             
SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE THAT IN PART IS SUPPORTING CURRENT                 
ACTVTY. LATEST MAPS SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX DIV SHOWS DIVERGENCE MAX              
OVER THE STORMS OFFSHORE AND A CONVERGENCE MAX OVER OSCEOLA                     
COUNTY...WHICH SEEMS RIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. SEA BREEZE SHOULD              
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND IN THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON BUT LIKELY AT A SLOWER RATE THAN YESTERDAY WITH WINDS JUST            
ABV THE SFC OUT OF A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. CAPE SOUNDING                    
SUGGESTS A MORE ENE STORM MOTIONAT THE LOW LEVELS. NO UPDATED                   
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.                                                          
MARINE...E SWELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AT OFFSHORE BUOYS AND HAVE               
SEPERATED WIND WAVE FM SWELL. NO OTHER CHGS MADE.                               
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
BORZILLERI/BLOTTMAN                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 131406  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
HIGH AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH              
AMERICA AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN REORGANIZES FROM A 4 TO A               
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 5 WAVE PATTERN. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN               
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DEVELOP LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN            
THIRD OF NORTH AMERICA AND PULL POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON            
BAY. ENERGY FROM YESTERDAYS ALEUTIAN SHORTWAVE HAS INTERACTED WITH              
THE LONGWAVE TROF ENERGY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ON WATER VAPOR              
APPEAR TO BE ROTATING AROUND THEMSELVES (FUJIWARA?). JET ENERGY                 
APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS WILL FINISH CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROF               
AROUND 48N/150W. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND               
UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THIS NEXT COMING WEEKEND              
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC STRENGTHENS ALLOWING            
100+ KNOT JET ENERGY TO BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK WITH                         
DEAMPLIFICATION BY THE JUNE 20-22 TIME PERIOD.                                  
THE NET RESULT IS BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE               
ENTIRE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BEING DOMINANT. AS THE LONGWAVE                 
PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES THIS COMING WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH            
NORMAL 7-9 DAYS FROM NOW.                                                       
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AROUND               
KMCI MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI WHICH IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT             
OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF DSM ALONG WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET...SHEAR ZONE                
IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER...AND APPROACHING COLD POOL AT 500 MB. A MUCH           
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN                
SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA SETTING OFF                    
SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/SC ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA IS CELLUAR INDICATING THIS IS DIURNAL IN NATURE.              
THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SAID SHORTWAVES ARE ACROSS CENTRAL               
IOWA SLOWLY MOVING ENE. DVN 88D IS PICKING UP MAINLY CLOUDS JUST                
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME ISOLATED SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA              
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                    
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ANY SHORT TERM PRECIP CHANCES THEN MAINLY                 
CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.                                                            
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT ALL WERE NOT RESOLVING             
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE RUC HINTS AT THIS                   
SHORTWAVE AND THE ETA CATCHES THIS SHORTWAVE BUT LOOSES IT BY 18Z.              
THE AVN IS MORE CORRECT IN THE PLACING OF THE NOW COLD FRONT ACROSS             
ILLINOIS AT 18Z WHILE THE ETA/NGM ARE CATCHING THE TROF/DEW POINT               
FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN IOWA. 18Z MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATE A                
SHARP GRADIENT WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 50S AT KALO TO            
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST                 
AREA.                                                                           
SHEAR ZONE PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT WHILE LAPSE            
RATES SLOWLY STEEPEN ACROSS IOWA. WITH SHRA/TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING             
WILL GO LOW POPS FOR THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED            
BY DECREASING CLOUDS LATE. MONDAY PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                  
REMAINS AROUND AND FLOW BECOMES MORE CYCLONIC SO DIURNAL CU/SC                  
SHOULD DEVELOP.                                                                 
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST BUT                
MOST AREAS BEING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TUESDAY CLOUDS                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE            
IN. MODELS INDICATE RESONABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP AND WILL               
INTRODUCE LOW POPS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                    
FWC/FAN NUMBERS DON/T LOOK TOO BAD BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE                
DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROF THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH.                            
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
THE MAIN MESSAGE IN THE EXTENDED IS THE UNSEASONABLY COOL                       
TEMPERATURES TO BE EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON             
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S. LINGERING RAIN IN THE              
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS               
FRIDAY WITH A HINT OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES BUT STILL WELL BELOW              
NORMAL.                                                                         
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...AND SPI.                                     
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 131917  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
949 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK BAROTROPIC OCEAN LOW WELL E OF THE LOWER               
DELMARVA PENINSULA ATTM MOVING SLOWLY N MIDWAY BTWN THE E OF FALSE              
CAPE BUOY AND THE 009 BUOY AT ARND 1013 MB. THIS TRACK IS WELL E OF             
THE ERLR FCST TRACKS GOING BACK A FEW MODEL GUIDNC PKGS. IN HIND SIGHT          
GUIDNC CONTINUALLY HAD PROBLEMS FCSTG THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE UPR            
LOW PRIMARILY FROM THE CST W AND N ALONG THE FCST TRACK. EVEN AT THIS           
LATE HR THE 09Z RUC WILL NOT LKLY VERIFY.                                       
IN ANY EVENT TDA WILL BE A MOSTLY CLDY DAY ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA AS              
FEATURES ADVECT FROM ENE TO WSW. MC SINCE THERE MAY BE A FEW PATCHES OF         
SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO TIME. LTST RADAR DEPICTS A COUPLE AREAS OF SCT LT         
SHWRS VCNTY OF THE XTRM NRN SHENANDOAH VLY N ARS THE MRB/HGR AREAS AND          
ANOTHER E TO W AREA OF SCT LT ACTVTY FROM THE CNTRL BAY ACRS THE TIDAL          
POTOMAC BLO COLONIAL BEACH TO W OF THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA. ELSW SOME           
ISOLD SHWRS. ABV WILL LKLY BE THE STORY FOR THE RMNDR OF THE DAY.               
WHATEVER ACTVTY OCCURS WILL BE MORE OF A MINOR INCONVENIENCE THAN NOT.          
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...LATER.                                                      
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
PAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 130622  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                     
FORECAST CHANGES INCLUDE...                                                     
...BREAK OUT FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST COUNTIES FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES                
THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WILL GO WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.                
...LOWER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WHERE CLOUDS TO PERSIST.                         
VIS LOOP CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MOST              
OF SOUTHEAST LOWER. BEST BREAKS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST                 
LOWER. SO...WILL OPT FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO PERSIST ACROSS              
MUCH OF CWA...WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS FOUR SOUTHEAST-MOST                
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.                                                        
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...                           
ATMOSPHERE ONCE AGAIN REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE TODAY. MODIFIED MORNING             
SOUNDING /TEMPS INTO MID 80S-TDS UPPER 60S/ YIELDS AFTERNOON/EVENING            
CAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LI/S OF MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10.                     
DETERMINING FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE                          
PROBLEMATIC...LOTS OF CHOICES. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER            
TODAY THAN RECENT DAYS...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT PENETRATE              
AS FAR INLAND. RAINFALL YESTERDAY WAS MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS EASTERN              
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LEAVING WESTERN PORTIONS DRY.                
THEREFORE...A BOUNDARY EXISTS BETWEEN THE WETTER EASTERN AND                    
SOUTHERN PORTIONS...AND DRIER WESTERN PORTION. FINALLY...A COLD                 
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO                            
TONIGHT...FURTHER ADDING TO THE BOUNDARY MIX. SO...REGARDING                    
LOCATION...BELIEVE ANY AREA IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN COULD HAVE              
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AGAIN TODAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DRY                     
INTRUSION AT MID LEVELS FROM THE EAST. CONVECTION YESTERDAY FIRED               
ALONG THIS LINE AS IT MADE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER. NOTE 12Z               
BUF SOUNDING 660 MB TD DEPRESSION OF 38C. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES            
DRY AIR HAVING DIFFICULT TIME PROGRESSING WEST. RUC SUGGESTS                    
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR TO BE LIMITED TODAY.                 
HOWEVER TRACK RECORD OF MODELS HANDLING THESE WESTWARD MOVING                   
SYSTEMS...SOMEWHAT LESS THAN ADEQUATE. CONVECTION BREAKING OUT SO               
FAR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IS WELL BEHAVED WITH STORMS SHOWING            
LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOR               
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...EVEN                    
ISOLATED PULSE-TYPE STORMS CAN PRODUCE A BUSY DAY.                              
OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER              
VALUES RUNNING ABOUT 1.50 INCHES. WAVE LOCATED OVER IL PROGGED TO               
MOVE TO OH BY LATE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS HISTORY OVER WI/IL OF               
PRODUCING COPIOUS RAINFALL...AND LIKE SCENARIO POSSIBLE ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST LOWER. FLOOD THREAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION AT PRESENT.                
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 131539  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
245 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999                                                      
CURRENT 88D INDICATES CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS NW PORTION OF              
FA IN AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE. CURRENT SFC RUC DATA INDICATES WRN              
TWO-THIRDS OF FA UNSTABLE...WITH HIGHEST CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG            
ACROSS EXTREME EASTRN IN. THIS INSTABILITY NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.            
YET POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SVR ACROSS FA.                
MODELS NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...WITH THE NGM COMING MORE                 
AROUND WITH THE ETA. AFFECTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY                
POSITIONED NW OF FA...WILL BECOME MORE OF AN INFLUENCE AS WE                    
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF FCST PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL                   
SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL...AS ENTRANCE                
REGION OF 25H JET REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN GRT LKS.             
85H CONVERGENCE SETS UP ACROSS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH APPROACH OF 85H              
FRONT. THIS ZONE OF LLVL FORCING MOVES INTO OUR FA FOR MONDAY. AT               
THE SFC...EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS ILN FA ON MONDAY. ETA HAS BEEN            
VERY CONSISTANT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. DRIER             
NW FLOW SHOULD MOVE INTO FA FROM THE NW ON MONDAY.                              
FOR TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS W...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN             
THE 65 TO 70 RANGE. WILL GO WIDELY SCT ACROSS SE SECTION.                       
FOR MONDAY...FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH LIKELY/CATAGORICAL POPS ACROSS            
ENTIRE FA. DEPENDING ON HOW EXTENSIVE CLD COVER IS...WILL DIRECTLY              
AFFECT TEMPS. WITHOUT MANY BREAKS...TEMPS COULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO            
MID 70S. WILL CONSIDER THIS.                                                    
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED.                   
MISILN OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
DISTEFANO                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 131440  oh