NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
915 AM MST SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO               
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED               
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN                
ARIZONA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE             
START OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                         
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE CWA               
WILL BE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  QUICK LOOK AT RUC AND MESOETA MODELS                
SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN TW0-THIRDS OF CWA AND MOVING               
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BELIEVE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF               
CWA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RW/TRW TODAY AS MOISTURE                    
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR HUGS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.                     
ELSEWHERE...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED                  
TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY             
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES EASTWARD. ABOVE TRENDS             
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE.  NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.  TW                  
.FLG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 071618  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
TOO WARM AND DRY ALOFT...AND THAT ALONG WITH TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER            
WIND FOR THE CUMULUS LINE TO DEVELOP MADE FOR A VERY QUIET WEATHER              
DAY EARLIER TODAY. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DOES SHOW AN               
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THERE IS SOME                
CONVECTION FROM ANDROS AND THE BIMINIS TO THE CAY SAL BANK.                     
WITH VERY DEEP...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK EASTERLIES WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE             
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THERE              
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP TO 2 INCHES...AND             
IT                                                                              
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OVER 4000...LIFTED INDEX OF -8 AND THE               
K-INDEX IS 31. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW IS FROM ABOUT 070            
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE            
IN THE STRAITS. I WILL DEBATE WHETHER TO DROP POPS FOR THE KEYS TO              
WIDELY SCATTERED FOR TONIGHT.                                                   
UNLESS SOME RAIN-COOLED AIR MOVES IN...THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS FOR                
TONIGHT LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW WITH THE WARM EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE            
OFF 86 TO 88 DEGREE WATER TEMPS. I MAY TWEAK TEMPS UPWARD.                      
CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CUMULUS LINE DEVELOPS.                 
MODELS SHOW TOO MUCH WIND FOR IT TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR...AND WITH                
STEERING FLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST...CUBA AND THE PENINSULA ACTIVITY               
WOULD NEVER GET HERE. IF CUMULUS LINE DOES NOT DEVELOP AS MODELS                
SUGGEST...THEN POPS WOULD BE OVERDONE.                                          
WINDS IN MARINE FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT. I WILL LIKELY            
KEEP WINDS AT 10 KTS TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z SOUNDING...21Z             
RUC AND THE EARLIER ETA WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL.                          
.EYW...NONE                                                                     
MOHLIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 080029  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
905 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
UPDT TO ZFP TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. TROF/WNDSHFT ROUGHLY FM                  
CHI/PIA/IRK AT 02Z...WITH SECONDARY FNT/BNDRY ACROSS CNTRL WI/SERN              
MN MARKING SFC DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG                
SOUTHERN BNDRY WKNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND DRIFTING SE              
AWAY FROM FA. SHWRS ALNG NRN BNDRY...VCNTY OF LSE...EXPCTD TO WEAKEN            
NXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER 00Z RUC FCSTS. THEREFORE...LGT SHOWERS               
NOW OVR CHI SRN SUBURBS AND TSTMS OVR FAR SERN CWA SHOULD COME TO AN            
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH MO CLDY SKIES OVRNGT.                                
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
RATZER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 080151  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
SFC ANAL SHOWS CURRENT MCS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG EAST INTO IND WITH               
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED ACROSS SWRN IL FIRING TSRA JUST TO THE               
SOUTH OF CEN IL.  SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA TO NWRN MO TO              
ERN KS.  VIS SATL SHOWS SOME NICE CU DVLPING ALONG THE FRONT WHERE              
SOME CLRG HAS DVLPD.  THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WITH THE BEST                       
INSTABILITY AS SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THINGS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT.  75             
DEG DWPTS ARE ALSO POOLING ALONG THE FRONT.                                     
SHORT TERM PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL MOVE BACK INTO CEN IL             
THIS EVE AND TNGT WITH THE FRONT.  LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH             
ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN MO BUT THIS AREA WAS WORKED OVER EARLIER TDY.            
SO STRENGTH OF FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK AGAINST THE CAPPED ATMOS.                
WILL MAKE A PRESS TIME DISCISION ON POPS FOR THIS EVE...WITH THE                
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO IL...IF ANYTHING DOES DVLP.                      
TSRA/SHRA IF THEY DVLP ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE ITS LAST                
SHOT AS MODELS BRING FRONT INTO IL BY 06Z. 15Z RUC EVEN SPEEDS THIS             
UP TO AROUND 03Z WHICH WITH THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS               
LIKE GOOD TIMING.  LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SO MOSTLY                
CLOUDY TNGT WITH POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THE AREAS THAT RECIEVED THE             
MOST RAIN.   MAY KEEP THE SHRA CHC AROUND LONGER IN THE SE WITH THE             
COLD FRONT LINGERING TIL TIL 12Z IN THE THIS AREA.                              
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE NW OF IL...SO WITH MID LVL FLOW FROM THE              
NW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS TO PARTLY SUNNY TMRW BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGH            
PRES BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AS NW FLOW KEEPS THINGS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE            
ACROSS IL WITH WK S/WV'S MAKING THIER WAY DOWN FROM CAN FOR TUES AND            
WED IN THE EXTENDED.                                                            
GUID NUMBERS LOOK FINE FOR TNGT AND WITH INCREASED CLOUDS FOR                   
TMRW...FWC NUMBERS LOOK FINE.                                                   
SPI BB 067/081 057/081 060 22400                                                
PIA BB 065/080 056/081 061 22400                                                
DEC BB 067/081 057/081 061 22500                                                
CMI BB 066/080 056/081 060 22500                                                
MTO BB 068/082 057/082 062 22600                                                
LWV BB 068/082 056/082 062 22500                                                
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
KETCHAM                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 071945  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
855 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
TWO ITEMS TO CONCENTRATE ON THIS EVE. 1ST IS AREA OF CNVCTN AND                 
CDFNT IN THE MIDWEST. MSAS SFC ANALY PLACES CDFNT NRN IL/MO. BETTER             
ENHANCEMENT EVIDENT IN SE MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN KY. MVMT STEADY                 
EWD...AND MESOETA HNDLG OF SYSTEM OK...PERHAPS A TOUCH TOO SLOW. 21Z            
RUC SIMLR. MESOETA PROG PLACES QPF ON WRN DOORSTEP ARND 12Z. GUD                
DEWPT POOLING IN ASSOC W FNT. RTNS CLS ENUF TO JUSTIFY ADDTN OF 30              
POP IN WRN ZNS.                                                                 
2ND ITEM IS 70F PLUS DEWPTS CRAWLING UP SE CST TWD CHSPK BAY IN                 
RSNBL S/SE FLW. AREA MTRS REPORT WNDS ABT 5KT W/ EITHER A SLY/ELY               
COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME XCPTNS...MAINLY W/ WNDSPD.  IN RESPONSE...            
NYG DEWPT 67...NHK 71. WL REGROUP ZNS TO THE S AND E OF DCA-BWI                 
LN...AND PLACE THEM WITH THE CITIES.                                            
FEEL THIS NXT SYSTM PROVIDE BEST CHC OF PCPN CWFA HAS SEEN IN A WHL.            
SETUP DOES SEEM SIMLR TO JULY 24TH...ALTHO MSTR NOT QUITE AS                    
PLENTIFUL...AND THUS INSTAB NOT QUITE AS GREAT. WL RESIST TEMPTATION            
TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND ALLOW MID SHIFT TO DO THE HNRS...DEPENDING            
UPON WHAT THE NEW MDL GUID REVEALS. THUS...CHGS TO 2ND-4TH PDS                  
COSMETIC.                                                                       
ZFP/EOL TO HIT THE STREETS ARND 930 PM. COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOMED.               
G'NGT!                                                                          
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
HTS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 071813  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
RUC PICKS UP ON A WEAK VORT MAX MOVG THRU OH THIS MRNG. THIS IS                 
SPREADING SOME MID AND HI CLDS E. TIMING WOULD BRING SOME OF THESE              
ACRS THE FA DURG THE AFTN. RUC ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT MID             
LEVELS MOVG INTO THE FA THIS AFTN. WL CHG MSTLY SUNNY FCST TO PTLY              
SUNNY THIS AFTN. WITH THE ADDED CLDS WL DROP MAXES SLIGHTLY EVEN                
THOUGH MRNG SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CURRENT FCST IF THERE IS FULL SUN.                
ALL MODELS SHOW NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP ON SUN. SHD BE AN AREA OF TSTMS             
MOVG ACRS THE FA ON SUN. WL WAIT FOR NEW MODELS BEFORE ANY                      
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATER FCST RAINS.                                                
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPARKED A SIGNIFICANT               
AREA OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY...RUC SHOWS THIS MOISTURE AXIS                    
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.  KAPX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWS THIS            
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS THINNING AROUND 0Z AND DISSIPATING THE PAST               
HOUR OR TWO.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE UP AND LAKE             
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF SHOWERS BUT EVEN              
THIS IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.                                                
PRIMARY PROBLEMS FOR TONIGHTS UPDATES... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.               
RUC SHOWS SOME DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THAT DOESN/T APPEAR             
TO BE HAPPENING BASED ON MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS.  VAD WIND                   
PROFILE FROM AREA WSR-88DS AND APX SOUNDING MINIMALLY SUPPORT A                 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.  ONLY STATION REPORTING THOSE            
WINDS ARE STANNARD ROCK AND 45004.  DON/T BELIEVE THE NEARSHORE                 
AREAS WILL SEE MUCH OF THAT WIND BUT WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT IF THOSE            
SIGHTS WINDS CONTINUE THIS HOUR.                                                
WILL MAKE CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD              
COVER IN CURRENT ZONES IS WELL HANDLED WITH MENTION OF SOME                     
IMPROVEMENT IN WESTERN AREAS.  ETA AND RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW                 
THESE VFR CEILINGS TO MAKE IT THERE AROUND 9Z.  THOUGH MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ACROSS WISCONSIN I              
WILL AMEND THE TAFS EARLY TO REFLECT THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                
COORDINATED WITH MQT                                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
HIRSCH                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 080201  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
KAPX 88D SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF          
M-32...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO PUSHING EAST OF THE ST MARY'S RIVER.  RAIN       
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PRIMARILY FORCED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH         
THE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER THIS EVENING. KMQT       
88D BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW RETURNS OVER WESTERN UPPER ALONG COLD FRONT         
LINED UP FROM CMX-EAU-DSM AT 19Z.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS ENDING      
RAIN CHANCES...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.                
SHORT TERM MODELS PROGGING SIMILAR IDEAS...WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS       
STATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  WILL        
CONTINUE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST LOWER THIS        
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED POPS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.         
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN 12Z GRB RAOB AND IN 15Z RUC MODEL            
SOUNDINGS...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN THUNDER MENTION IN FORECAST THOUGH SHOULD       
BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SHOWERS.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERNIGHT IN          
CAA PATTERN AND IN RFQ OF UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO ONTARIO.  VISIBLE LOOP        
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SOME OF WHICH IS CONVECTIVE       
AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART WITH SUNSET.  WILL MENTION PARTIAL CLEARING          
ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                       
FOR SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL PROMOTE A GOOD DEAL OF CU/SC DURING         
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PREVENT DIURNAL SHOWERS FROM       
DEVELOPING.  PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD WORK...THOUGH THINK THERE WILL           
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AROUND.  AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM        
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST OVER EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH NORTH/         
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND.  DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS           
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.                                            
.EXTENDED...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEAST      
U.S. TROF AND WESTERN RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE      
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MAKE A COMEBACK.  EXTENDED MODELS      
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY REGARDING PROGGED SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE       
REFLECTIONS. CANADIAN/NOGAPS SWING WEAK SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE STATE ON       
TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. BUT EACH          
MODEL PEGS ITS SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ON A DIFFERENT FEATURE...WITH THE NOGAPS     
PUSHING A DECENT WAVE OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO THE STATE.  MRF DROPS A          
WEAK UPPER WAVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND THOUGH ITS INITIAL         
SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS NEVER REACHES THE WESTERN LAKES...THE MODEL        
IS INDICATING AN 850MB TROF AXIS AND DECENT WAA. ECMWF KEEPS STRONG             
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A SOLUTION THE         
MRF IS TRENDING AWAY FROM ALTHOUGH ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVES MUCH       
TO BE DESIRED. 12Z SHORT RANGE PROGS LEANING TOWARD CANADIAN MODEL IDEA         
OF MOVING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.         
PLAN TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES UP INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FORECAST...          
THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS           
IN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES TOWARD THE LAKES.  TEMPERATURES WILL            
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE           
AN ALL DAY CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S.  WARMER           
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IF ZONAL FLOW AND           
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AS PROGGED.                                     
COORDINATED WITH GRR/MQT/DTX.                                                   
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 071951  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
CFNT ERN MN... WRMFNT KEWEENAW SE THRU CENT UPR MI.  CFNT TO ENTER              
WRN LK SUPERIOR MID AFTN AND PASS THROUGH CENTRAL UPR MI DURG                   
EVENING.  KMQT VWP INDICATES MAIN CLD BASE 140 ATTM.                            
SHWRS ERN LK SUPERIOR TIED TO 700-500 MB Q-VEC CONVGC AXIS AND                  
UNSTABLE AIR...MVG E. SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS DVLPG WRN LK SUPERIOR ASSOC             
W/LEADING EDGE OF RUC DEPICTED PVA WITH APCHG SHRT WV FM NW.                    
WHEREAS DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN ORGANIZED STRONG                        
CONVECTION... MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND INSOLATION ARE LIMITING                   
FACTORS.  700-400 MB QG FORCING PRESENT ALONG WITH 300-200 MB                   
DIVERGENCE IN RGT ENTRANCE RGN OF JET STRK THIS AFTN FAVOR THE                  
CONVECTION.  200-400 CAPES...HIGHEST IN SRN UPR MI...AND NEAR 0 LI              
INDICATE DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS BUT BLO SVR LEVELS.             
WILL INCREASE AFTN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG IN WRN AND SRN ZONES AND               
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
PELLETT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 071444  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1043 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
WILL KEEP THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST... SINCE CURRENT TRENDS              
STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                   
HOWEVER... MAY ADJUST WORDING SOME AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT            
OVER THE WEST.                                                                  
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE            
MICHIGAN... WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACTIVITY NOTED. SOME OF THIS IS NOT               
REACHING THE GROUND... PER UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS... BUT SOME                     
LOCATIONS DID REPORT RAIN AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH. THIS AREA             
OF PCPN IS DEPICTED NICELY ON THE 12Z RUC 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...            
WITH GOOD UPGLIDE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATED              
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT 15Z. THE RUC PROGS             
THIS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CPDS INTO OUR AREA DURING THE              
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER THE            
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF             
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE                  
AREA... AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES... PRODUCING DECENT 850MB               
THETA-E ADVECTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS A               
TOUGHER CALL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS... SINCE THEY ARE IN A BIT OF A            
GAP BETWEEN THE GOOD BAROCLINIC FORCING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE                
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR THE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS GAP IS             
SHOWN IN THE RUC/S 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS FOR THIS               
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL              
HAVE A CHANCE TO DE-STABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A BIT MORE            
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEW ETA DEPICTS SOME INSTABILITY... WITH            
CAPES OF AROUND 700 J/KG... OVER THIS AREA BY EVENING. FEEL THEIR               
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS                
EVENING... ONCE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE.                                                         
SO... WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS WHERE            
THEY ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER... MAY WORD THE NORTHERN PART             
OF THE AREA AS BEING MAINLY TOWARD EVENING. WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER            
ALREADY INTO WESTERN LOWER... WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT           
OVER THE WEST TO LINE UP MORE WITH THE LATEST LAMP AND RUC GUIDANCE.            
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1115 AM.                                                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
TRH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 071441  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
FCST CHALLENGE...CHC TSRA EARLY FIRST PD...THEN TEMPS.                          
MAIN FOCUS TODAY HAS BEEN DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AND                
ASSOC PUBLIC RELATIONS.                                                         
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK CDFNT ACRS SERN NEBR/KS                         
BORDER...MOVG SLOWLY SEWD.  WITH GOOD INSOLATION IN VCNTY THIS                  
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANS/POOLING AND CONVERGENCE...                  
THOUGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA WOULD BE PSBL THIS AFTERNOON.  HAS                
NOT HAPPENED YET...AND LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SFC                 
INHIBITION. WL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE IF WL MENTION IN ZONES            
SERN CWFA.                                                                      
WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW CONT TO MOVE SEWD OVR ERN            
NEBR...WITH VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR            
SD AND WRN NEBR. THEREFORE...TREND TONIGHT WL BE INCR STABILITY AND             
ASSOC SUBSIDENCE AS WK SFC RDG AND SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR MOVS IN.  WITH            
RECENT FLOODING...HAVE MENTIONED PTCHY AREAS FOG ECNTRL NEBR..GIVEN             
LGT NLY WNDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIXING.                        
FOR SUN...SFC RDG MOVS TWD GREAT LAKES...AND WRMFNT/LEE TROF                    
DVLPS ACRS NRN HI PLAINS.  THUS...WARMUP WILL BEGIN AS 500MB HTS BLD            
AND SUBSIDENCE CONT.  SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING /WAA/ COMMENCES WELL TO            
NORTH ACRS ND...EAST OF WARM CORE TROF AND WRMFNT.  THIS WL LEAVE               
CWFA MAINLY DRY.  CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PER FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS...WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF                   
DEGREES.                                                                        
MON...EVEN WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO SD WITH               
INCR SLY WNDS AND MIXING POTENTIAL.  MODELS AGREE THAT MAJORITY OF              
PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF WRMFNT...OVR ERN DAKOTAS AND MN               
MON...POSBLY AFFECTING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN CWFA.  LLJ AND                 
VEERING 850MB WNDS FOCUS BEST WAA AT NOSE OF LLJ OVR ERN SD...WITH              
BROAD AND WEAKER AREA WAA EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CWFA.  THO BEST CHC              
ELEVATED CONVECTION WL BE TO N AS DEPICTED IN MODEL QPFS SUN NIGHT...HAVE       
INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NRN CWFA FOR THIS                     
SCENARIO.  SLUG OF ETA 300MB DIV SEEMS TO PICK UP THIS POSBL MCS SRN            
MN AND NW IA MON MORN.                                                          
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
BZ                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 071919  ne                                      

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE               
WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER             
MUCH OF THE REGION. WEATHER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL             
SERVE TO BRING OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS...MAINLY TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA           
THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH                
CONTINUING AFTERNOON BREEZES.                                                   
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OFF W COAST THIS EVENING. NRN                 
PORTION OF THE TROUGH LIFTING N ACROSS THE PAC NW AND SRN PORTION               
TRYING TO REFORM OFF CA COAST AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DRIVES DOWN              
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PART OF             
THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED N INTO NRN NV THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEAR               
THERE.                                                                          
NOTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES NEAR 35N/125W           
APPROACHING CENTRAL CA COAST. 12Z MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE            
WELL BUT 00Z ETA/RUC SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH REALITY. FORECAST IS           
FOR THIS VORT MAX TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N INTO CENTRAL CA             
BY 12Z SUN THEN UP INTO WRN NV DURING THE DAY. UNLIKE LAST                      
NIGHT...THIS VORT MAX WILL NOT PROVIDE NW PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH            
DYNAMICS AND/OR CLOUDS SO CURRENT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST                   
OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD. PROXIMITY OF THE VORT MAX IN COMBINATION WITH             
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND 500-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL STILL                  
PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA           
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA. CURRENT BREEZY CONDITIONS                 
MENTIONED IN FORECAST IN LINE WITH 00Z NGM MOS GUIDANCE. NOT PLANNING           
ANY CHANGES TO EXISTING PACKAGE.                                                
AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIVES DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROUGH...SRN PART               
CLOSES OFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW LATE SUN WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING S DOWN            
THE COAST MONDAY. NOTICED THAT 00Z ETA IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER                  
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER S WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN 12Z AVN RUN INDICATED.             
PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY OPEN UP              
AND SWING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CA MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOW THERE            
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE                
DROPPING S. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF            
SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW MUCH                 
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN BACK INTO AZ IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TO SAY              
THE LEAST...VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST.                              
NEMETH                                                                          
.LAS...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 080354  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
FLAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.              
09Z RUC IS SHOWING A VERY WEAK S/WV TO MOVE ACROSS BUT LITTLE TO NO             
UVM IS INDICATED. RUC SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE OVER THE AREA                 
THAN YESTERDAY BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS MOISTURE. ATMOS               
IS CAPPED AGAIN TODAY SO IF ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EXPECT IT TO BE               
ISOLATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONES.                
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SOME                
INLAND LOCATIONS COULD HIT WARNING CRITERIA BUT ATTM NOT CONFIDENT              
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS              
BAD SUNDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS FOR INLAND SC TO NEAR 100 AND INLAND               
COASTAL SC TO UPPER 90S. WILL ALSO RAISE EXPECTED HI/S TO 110 TO                
115 RANGE.                                                                      
CWF: WINDS PRETTY LIGHT ATTM BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP OUT TO THE              
SW THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS                   
PLANNED.                                                                        
.ILM...HEAT ADVISORY NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-             
       039-046.                                                                 
IRELAND                                                                         
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
850 PM SAT AUG 7 1999                                                           
INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN CONTG TO OVRSPRD NW HALF OF FA THIS EVNG.                 
DWPTS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF FA AND PCPN HAVING            
A BIT OF A TUF TIME MOVG INTO DRIER AIR. COMPOSITE RADAR SHWG PCPN              
OVR NRN IND BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD PAST HR OR SO AND THIS IN AREA OF              
BETTER UPR LVL DYNAMICS. 00Z RUC NOT AS STG AS 12Z MDLS AND                     
MESOETA...BUT STILL BRINGG UPR LVL DIVG/LLVL CONV COUPLET ACRS FA               
OVRNGT SO WL HANG ONTO HI POPS MOST AREAS. AM XPCTG SRN EDGE OF CRNT            
PCPN TO CONT TO FIZZLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR SO AM CRNTLY                  
PLANNING ON LEAVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING IN PMH/FAR SRN GROUP.                
NO CHG TO TMP FCST PLANNED.                                                     
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
LOTT                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCLE 080038  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1017 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
LATEST RUC MDL SHOWS A LOT OF LL RH REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS         
THE ABR CWA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SHOWN ON            
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND          
CAA...TEMPS WILL NOT DO MUCH RISING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTH          
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE FRONTSIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH.          
PRECIP IS OVER AS COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA LATE            
THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SEVERAL CHANGES.                    
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 071458  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
944 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY AND STABLE THIS MORNING. LATEST MESO-ETA AND               
RUC MODEL PROGS INDICATE A WEAK S/W SYSTEM ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE           
FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE             
AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW H10/5 MEAN RH                   
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION           
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
ALSO...BASED ON H10/5 THICKNESS TRENDS...LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER            
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (WHICH THE FIRST PERIOD ZONES              
REFLECT). DESPITE THIS...WILL TRIM BACK AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTH            
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ZONE WHERE IT LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM.                       
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.                                      
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMEG 070836  tn                                      

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
THE UPPER AIR OB WENT BAD AROUND 700 MB...SO REALLY HAVE LITTLE NEW             
DATA TO ANALYZE AT THIS WRITING.  THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A                  
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND ABOVE THE DECK...WHICH MIXED DOWN TODAY AND             
MANAGED TO KICK THE WIND UP TO AROUND THE 15 KT AND GUSTY RANGE.                
SURFACE PRESSURE IS DRIFTING UP IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS               
WARM CORE LOW RECEDES WEST UP RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FACE OF INTRUDING            
GULF HIGH PRESSURE.  THE WIND IS SHOWING A CORRESPONDING DECREASE               
NOW TOO.                                                                        
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE                  
PETERED OUT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.                       
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN IS BREAKING UP AS IT MOVES               
OFFSHORE...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED IN SHEAR AXIS OVER               
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W.  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE/RIDGING              
ON EAST SIDE WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF              
CAMPECHE...YUCATAN...WESTERN CUBA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN              
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS WEST OF 82W (TWDAT).  THE TIMING OF THIS                
UPPER INSTABILITY MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST SUGGESTS ANY REMNANTS                
COULD ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.                 
THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE 700 MB FIELD MOVING              
ASHORE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE THETA-E AXIS ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH               
ALONG THE COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE                  
COASTAL WATERS.  EARLIER MODELS ALSO KEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH 0812Z             
BEFORE BEGINNING A DRYING TREND IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.                    
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT TINKER WITH IT.             
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS                   
TONIGHT.                                                                        
SYN/MESO...BHM.54/HMT...ABBOTT                                                  
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KAMA 080215  tx                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASE BY             
0.1 INCH OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY AND THE UPPER HIGH HAS STRENGTHENED             
OVER SOUTHERN U.S.  HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER                
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON.  GOES SOUNDING PROFILES AND LAND BASED             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 90S(WHICH                
WILL BE REACHED AROUND 1 PM). LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES A BRIEF                
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB.  SO EXPECT             
SOME SHORT LIVED CUMULUS CLOUDS.  A LOW LEVEL JET HAS RETURNED TO               
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH NO FETCH OVER THE GULF.                              
AS ALWAYS, COMMENTS WELCOMED!                                                   
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS                                                             
AUS 099/072 099/073 0000                                                        
SAT 099/074 100/074 0000                                                        
DRT 101/076 102/076 0000                                                        
.EWX...OZONE ACTION DAY TODAY AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.                           
06/08/DC                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 071511  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 750 MB WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A LITTLE BIT OF             
ACCAS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING.  OTHER THAN THAT THE ONLY OTHER LAYER            
OF MOISTURE WAS ABOVE 550 MB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUNDING                 
QUITE DRY.  DON'T FORSEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO WARRANT ANY               
POPS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY.   THE ONLY                
FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT I COULD FIND WAS BOUNDARY OVER THE               
EASTERN CAROLINAS...REMNANTS FROM FRONT 2 DAYS AGO...AND THE                    
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.               
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME MID            
LEVEL CAP...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE RNK            
CWA.  THE MESO-ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND UVM                 
BLOSSOMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND TO A LESSER              
EXTENT THE RUC.                                                                 
OTHER THAN DROPPING POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE REMAINDER OF THE               
FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER TO LEAVE POPS IN              
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MODELS INDICATE WEAK                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER IS              
DRY...BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT FROM LIFT WILL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD            
COVER AND VERY LITTLE PRECIP.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FCST FOR THIS                 
PERIOD ALONE AND LOOK AT MORE DATA B4 ADJUSTING THE PRECIP THREAT.              
AS FOR SUNDAY...APPROACH OF FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFT NEEDED FOR                  
AREAWIDE THREAT OF PRECIP.  CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD OF            
THE FCST IS MUCH HIGHER.                                                        
.RNK...                                                                         
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
PM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 071408  va                                      

WAKEFIELD FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
DSCN: 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED ACRS THE REGION...              
MEAN LLVL FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS AND VRBL...SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING LWR             
TO MID 90S WITH FULL SUN. LTST SATL TRENDS SHOW MUCH OF CI DEBRIS               
SHLD PASS THRU NRN CWA...AND ALONG WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING WK PVA               
AT 500H...WILL GO WITH P SUNNY N...AND M SUNNY S THIS AFTN. VRBL                
WINDS INLD...WITH SEA BREEZES IN CSTL AREAS. ISOLD (10%) ACTVTY PSBL            
ALONG SEA BREEZES THIS AFTN...BUT WL KEEP OUT OF FCST.                          
.CWF...NO CHGS.                                                                 
.AKQ...NONE.                                                                    
HESS                                                                            
 va                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
915 AM MST SAT AUG 7 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO               
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED               
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN                
ARIZONA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE             
START OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                         
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE CWA               
WILL BE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  QUICK LOOK AT RUC AND MESOETA MODELS                
SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN TW0-THIRDS OF CWA AND MOVING               
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BELIEVE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF               
CWA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RW/TRW TODAY AS MOISTURE                    
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR HUGS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.                     
ELSEWHERE...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED                  
TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY             
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES EASTWARD. ABOVE TRENDS             
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE.  NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.  TW                  
.FLG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTWC 071618  az                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
305 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
... SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND PART OF MONDAY...                                   
PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 06Z.                
SKIES CLEAR NICELY ABOUT 60 MILES BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT.  THIS              
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN WI.  ETA/RUC BRING CLRG INTO SW LWR BY               
12Z AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLD FREE THE REST OF SUNDAY AND INTO                  
MONDAY MORNING.  NGM HAS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND  DOES NOT CLEAR            
SKIES TILL EARLY AFTERNOON. BASED ON TIME TOOL ON AWIPS... CLEARING             
WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR             
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE COLD AIR COMING IN... WILL GO WITH THE            
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IDEA.  AIR TO DRY FOR MUCH IF ANY CU TODAY.               
SOME INDICATIONS OF MORE CU E THEN WEST BUT WILL NOT MESS WITH THAT             
IDEA (ETA KEEPS MORE 850 MOISTURE OVER ERN LWR MI LONGER).                      
NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND WILL RACE             
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CANADA MONDAY.  THIS WILL            
BE ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM... BUT WITH MOST LONG RANGE MODELS               
SHOWING SIG AMOUNT OF ENERGY FROM ALASKA TROF MOVING INTO WRN                   
CANADA... THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO TAKE A                
MORE NRLY TRACK AND KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS N OF SW LWR TUE.  EVEN               
SO... ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADV/ETC TO KEEP  CHC OF SHWRS             
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  WILL PUT INCREASING CLDS MONDAY                 
AFTERNOON (NRN 1/2 CWA) FOR WAA CLDS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE.  NRN                 
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF THIS THEN SRN AREAS SO WILL HAVE BCMG PARTLY             
CLOUDY SRN PART OF CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                        
AS FOR TEMPS... VARIOUS FCST METHODS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID 70S TODAY             
AND MONDAY SO WILL GO CLOSE TO MOS BOTH DAYS.  AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY            
TONIGHT ABOVE SFC... SO GOOD RADIATION COOLING WITH HIGH OVERHEAD TOO.          
THUS WILL FCST LOWS MID 40S TO NEAR 50 NRN AREAS AND NEAR 50 SOUTH.             
ZONES BY 400 AM.                                                                
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 080217  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999                                                      
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPARKED A SIGNIFICANT               
AREA OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY...RUC SHOWS THIS MOISTURE AXIS                    
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.  KAPX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWS THIS            
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS THINNING AROUND 0Z AND DISSIPATING THE PAST               
HOUR OR TWO.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE UP AND LAKE             
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF SHOWERS BUT EVEN              
THIS IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.                                                
PRIMARY PROBLEMS FOR TONIGHTS UPDATES... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.               
RUC SHOWS SOME DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THAT DOESN/T APPEAR             
TO BE HAPPENING BASED ON MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS.  VAD WIND                   
PROFILE FROM AREA WSR-88DS AND APX SOUNDING MINIMALLY SUPPORT A                 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT.  ONLY STATION REPORTING THOSE            
WINDS ARE STANNARD ROCK AND 45004.  DON/T BELIEVE THE NEARSHORE                 
AREAS WILL SEE MUCH OF THAT WIND BUT WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT IF THOSE            
SIGHTS WINDS CONTINUE THIS HOUR.                                                
WILL MAKE CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD              
COVER IN CURRENT ZONES IS WELL HANDLED WITH MENTION OF SOME                     
IMPROVEMENT IN WESTERN AREAS.  ETA AND RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW                 
THESE VFR CEILINGS TO MAKE IT THERE AROUND 9Z.  THOUGH MODEL                    
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ACROSS WISCONSIN I              
WILL AMEND THE TAFS EARLY TO REFLECT THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.                
COORDINATED WITH MQT                                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
HIRSCH                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 080201  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
850 PM SAT AUG 7 1999                                                           
INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN CONTG TO OVRSPRD NW HALF OF FA THIS EVNG.                 
DWPTS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF FA AND PCPN HAVING            
A BIT OF A TUF TIME MOVG INTO DRIER AIR. COMPOSITE RADAR SHWG PCPN              
OVR NRN IND BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD PAST HR OR SO AND THIS IN AREA OF              
BETTER UPR LVL DYNAMICS. 00Z RUC NOT AS STG AS 12Z MDLS AND                     
MESOETA...BUT STILL BRINGG UPR LVL DIVG/LLVL CONV COUPLET ACRS FA               
OVRNGT SO WL HANG ONTO HI POPS MOST AREAS. AM XPCTG SRN EDGE OF CRNT            
PCPN TO CONT TO FIZZLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR SO AM CRNTLY                  
PLANNING ON LEAVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING IN PMH/FAR SRN GROUP.                
NO CHG TO TMP FCST PLANNED.                                                     
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
LOTT                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCLE 080038  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
ONLY SHORT TERM PRLBM TO WORRY ABOUT IS SOME STRATUS THAT HAS FORMED            
IN N CNTRL NEB AND S CNTRL SD WEST OF FSD CWA...AND ARND THE KMML               
VCNTY. THESE AREAS ARE EXPANDING...BUT THE AREA ARND KMML IS HAVING             
TROUBLE GETTING OVR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. I DID GO AHD AND BREAK OFF               
THE THREE S CNTRL CNTYS HOWEVER IN CASE SOME OF THIS STRATUS EXPANDS            
INTO THERE. BOTH THE RUC...NGM AND ETA SHOW HIGH 925MB RH MSTR                  
STREAMING UP INTO THE AREA JUST WEST OF CWA THIS MRNG...SO WORTH                
WATCHING.                                                                       
WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TDAY AS LLVL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST. SOME             
GOOD THTE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WRN HALF OF SD SO KEPT A SLGT CHC              
OF TSTMS GOING IN S CNTRL ZONE THIS AFTN. HIGHER POPS ARE PROBLY NOT            
WARRANTED IN SWRN PTN OF CWA AS 850MB JET IS ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS AND              
MSTR IS SEVERELY LACKING. MAINLY WENT WITH THE ETA AND NGM AGAIN FOR            
THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS. BOTH MDLS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ABV THE               
SFC...WHILE THE NGM HAS ITS USUAL BIAS OF LIFTING THE SFC LOW/TROF              
PRBLY TOO QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON MON. THEREFORE FOLLOWED ETA FOR SFC            
WNDS. SHRTWV RIDES OVR THE RIDGE TNGT AND MON...AND CRNT PLACEMENT              
SHOWN WELL BY WV IMG. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND OVERALL DYNAMICS             
ARE HEADING N OF CWA TNGT...MOVG SE ON MON. FEEL THE BEST CHCS OF               
PCPN IN CWA WL BE FM BROOKINGS TO WINDOM...BUT WORTH ONLY 40 POPS.              
LOWER POPS WARRANTED ELSEWHERE. BOTH MDLS SHOW GOOD THTE RIDGING...             
GOOD DIR SHEAR AND EXCELLENT 850MB WAA THRU NE QUAD OF SD. ETA ALSO             
BUILDS GOOD CAPES BACK IN TNGT AND MON. BUT...A TRIGGER IN THE LOW              
LVLS IS VERY LACKING AS WELL AS MSTR. THE LLVL CONV/UPR LVL DIV IS              
DISORGANIZED. THE KEY IS THE 850MB WND PROGS. THESE WNDS ARE SLOW TO            
COME ARND WITH LARGE 850MB TO THE SE. BY THE TIME THEY DO...THE                 
SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF CWA...THEN THE LLVL JET TURNS TO THE WEST EARLY             
MON. NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE WAA REALLY WEAKENS ON             
MON AS THE LOW AND MID LVL HEAT BALANCES OUT...AND CONDITIONS COULD             
GET QUITE WARM OVR THE WEST. LOOK FOR WELL MIXED CONDITIONS ON MON              
SO WARMED THINGS UP QUITE A BIT. BOTTOM LINE...THIS SYSTEM IS COMING            
THRU THE CWA ABOUT 24 HRS TOO SOON FOR DECENT RAINFALL.                         
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 080740  sd                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1055 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
THE 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KY/TN THAT             
MOVES OVER FAR NORTHWEST GA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SHORT WAVE AND                
IMPORT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE              
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SKY CONDITION IN FAR           
NORTHWEST GA WILL BE SHOWN AS PARTLY SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASED           
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ZONES OVER THE FAR                
SOUTH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.           
ATL...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST-CENTRAL GA.                         
SCHAUB                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 080705  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
937 AM SUN AUG 8 1999                                                           
LOW CLDS AND BRIEF DRZL ACRS SRN LWR MI ATTM ALG WITH LK EFFECT                 
CLDS ALG THE LONG AXIS OF LM. BREAK IN LOW CLDS ACRS CNTRL LWR MI               
NE TWD SAGINAW BAY AND THIS DEPICTED WELL BY RUC-3 RH FIELDS BLO                
925MB.                                                                          
RUC INDCS DRYING BY 21Z ACRS AREA XCPT FOR LK EFFECT CLDS FAR NRN               
IND WHICH SHD STAY MAINLY ALG AND W OF LAPORTE/PORTER COUNTY LINE.              
DRIZZLE IN AREA OF WEAK UVV WHICH ALSO...ACCORDING TO RUC...                    
DIMINISHES BY 15Z. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLDS THIS AFTN AS                     
MIXING/DRYING AT LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACE...BUT SC FILLING IN                     
RAPIDLY WHERE ANY HEATING OCCURS.                                               
WILL UPDATE IND/MI ZONES FOR JUST MINOR CHANGES. FCST TEMPS LOOK                
GOOD.                                                                           
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 080756  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1010 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
MAIN FRONT BACK IN NW PA AND DROPPING S. TIMING WOULD PUT IT INTO               
AREA DURG LATE AFTN. HAVE A LEE TROF DEVELOPING FARTHER SE AND RUC              
DEVELOPS THIS OVR ERN PART FA. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND WITH THERE MORE            
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IS NOW WITH 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS E OF MOST OF AREA            
AND MAINLY OVR DELMARVA. NOTICED DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING SOME              
AT IAD AND DCA BUT THESE SHD RECOVER SOME EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS HAVE            
TURNED MORE TO W AND ARE ADVECTING IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.                 
WL CONTINUE 50 POPS WITH CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. BELIEVE BEST RISK              
FOR TSTMS WL BE OVR SE PART OF FA CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY. WL              
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH DEVELOPS WITH THE FNT AS CLDS                    
LIMITING ANY HEATING WITH THE FNT AND MODELS PUSH MAIN VORT OUT                 
AHEAD OF FNT.                                                                   
MODEL SOUNDINGS OVR SE PART OF AREA GIVE CAPES TO 1500-2000. LOOKED             
AT IAD SOUNDING AND WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 STILL HAD A NEG AREA AT LOW              
END OF SOUNDING AND CAPES WERE ONLY ARND 1100. OVR SE PART OF AREA              
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND DECENT LLJ COULD SEE SOME TSTMS PRODUCE             
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT LOOK TO WARM FOR HAIL.                                  
BASIC FCST REMAINS AS IS WL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS                
SOME WITH CLDS.                                                                 
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 080712  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE AM UPDATE IS WHETHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON             
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.                                                            
MODERATELY MOIST BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC              
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM RZZ-BUY-CLT. UPPER AIR            
ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK CAA OCCURRING IN THE MID LAYERS. BOTH RUC AND             
MESO-ETA PROJECT BEST LAPSE RATES FROM 1000-850 & 850-700                       
COINCIDING ACROSS EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z WITH                
PROJECTED CAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. WITH THESE PARAMETERS AND BOUNDARY IN            
PLACE...THREAT OF CONVECTION LOOKS HIGHER THAN CURRENT NO POP/SLIGHT            
CHC POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                     
PRESENTLY...PLAN TO SPLIT EXTREME NE PIED/NRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM                
REMAINDER OF PIEDMONT AND GO WITH A 40% POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.            
FOR AREAS AROUND RDU AND FAY...WILL ADJUST POP TO 30%. WILL ISSUE               
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEFORE 15Z.                                
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES. PLAN              
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO AREAL EXTENT OF HEAT ADVISORY.                            
.RAH...HEAT ADVISORY NE PIEDMONT...NE PLAINS...AND SANDHILLS.                   
WSS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 081402  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
VIS IMG AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISSIPATION OF LGT FOG ACRS                
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA. KFLO VIS IMPROVED TO 8SM FROM            
3 SM OVR PAST 2 HRS. STEAM RM CONDITIONS EXISTING EARLY ON WITH SFC             
DWPTS 75 TO 79 ACRS THE CENT AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.             
THIS LLVL MOIST COMBINED WITH FCST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WILL EASILY             
PUT US INTO HEAT ADV CRITERIA TODAY.                                            
12Z RAPID UPDATE CYCLE SHOWING WEAK S/W WITH 2 VORT CENTERS EXPECTED            
AROUND 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN. DESPITE 4 DEGREE CAP IN PLACE...WILL              
UPDATE FIRST PERIOD ZONES TO REFLECT ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH             
OUT AFTN AS OPPPSED TO LATE AFTN. WILL ALSO DELETE MENTION OF                   
INCREASING WIND SINCE SW 10+ MPH COMMON ACRS CWFA ATTM.                         
CWF...WILL REMOVE POSSIBLE SCA ADV CONDITIONS TO BE MET LATE SUN                
INTO MON AS RUC KEEPS SW SFC FLOW < 25 KTS THROUGH NEXT 22 HRS.                 
.ILM...HEAT ADVISORY                                                            
       NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046.                   
JFP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 081343  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
938 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER NE          
MT AND NW ND THIS AM IN AREA OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850 TO 500         
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. WHILE 12Z RUC TAKES THIS AREA INTO SE                     
SASKATCHEWAN BY 0Z...IT BRINGS A SECONDARY AREA OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE         
INTO ERN ND BY THEN. WHILE SFC LI/S INDICATE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN               
STABLE OVER ALL THE FA...LI/S AT 150 M AGL DROP TO ZERO OVER THE FAR            
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY 0Z AS WAA DEVELOPS THERE. CONSIDERING             
TRACK OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED              
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL               
UPDATE ZFP ACCORDINGLY.                                                         
LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ALL                   
AREAS...BUT THIS WARMING TOO AGRESSIVE EAST OF RRV AS BETTER WAA WILL           
NOT MAKE IT INTO THAT AREA UNTIL LATE. WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE AS                
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FILTER OUT         
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.                                                            
TURNER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 080835  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
SFC FRONT STILL WELL NORTH IN THE OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY AT 13Z.              
RADAR AND SATL SHOW AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN KY AND TN ASSOCIATED               
WITH A SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS FORECAST BY 09Z RUC AND OTHER MODELS TO             
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY.                                                  
SO MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN IS THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.            
CONVECTION IN TN HAS LAID OUT A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JUST EAST            
OF BNA...ARCING SOUTH AND WEST INTO NRN AL AND MS. THE OUTFLOW                  
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST IN NRN MS AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER IN C/ERN               
TN. SFC FRONT TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY...SO ONLY                     
LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO GET CONVECTION GOING WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF            
WEAK OUTFLOW PRESSING EAST INTO WRN MTNS THIS AFTN AND INCREASED                
MOISTURE FLOW INTO REGION.                                                      
ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DWPTS EXISTS IN THE FOOTHILLS ATTM            
(64 AT HKY...66 AT GSP...67 AT AND). CLT HAS A 75 DWPT. EXPECT LEE              
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW.               
MOISTURE SHOULD POOL ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO                
TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO REMAIN             
RATHER WARM...SO DON'T EXPECT TO HAVE ANY STORMS GET OUT OF HAND.               
PLAN TO KEEP POPS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHC IN WRN                 
MTNS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS LOOK IN LINE AS            
WELL. MAY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION.                              
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 081334  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
KOHX-88D DEPICTED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION STRENGTHENING A LITTLE               
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU....WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE AND              
LI VALUES WERE (~1400 AND -3, RESPECTIVELY). LOOKING OVER THE LATEST            
MODEL DATA...THE 12Z RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE MAGNITUDE AND               
SHAPE OF THE UPSTREAM VORT MAX MORE REALISTICALLY IN THE TROUGH                 
AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE MESO-ETA TENDS TO SHEAR             
IT OUT IN TIME.                                                                 
12Z RUC SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FA WILL BECOME                     
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FEEL THAT CLOUD FEEDBACK ON            
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE THIS CONSERVATIVE. HOWEVER...AS              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...LOW-            
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGING SHOULD ALSO HELP THUNDERSTORM             
DEVELOPMENT BY 09/00Z IN THE NORTHERN FA.                                       
IN A AFTERNOON ZONE UPDATE...PLAN TO KEEP HIGHS AND POPS THE SAME...            
AND WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS TO CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY                
SOUTH.                                                                          
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
DM                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMEG 080817  tn                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
SEA BREEZE HAS SET UP AS FAR AS MELBOURNE AND COCOA. SUSPECT IT WILL            
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET UP FROM THE CAPE TO DAYTONA BEACH.                  
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL AROUND A VERO BEACH TO TAMPA LINE.                     
FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH               
THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE                   
BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. RUC                 
PICKS ON THIS FEATURE AS PLACEMENT OF EXISTING CLOUDS AND STORMS IN             
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS PRETTY GOOD. PREFER 30 POPS ACROSS              
THE CWA AS VORTICITY IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.                  
SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE BACK S OF FCST AREA ON MON AND AT LEAST THRU             
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK VORT AXIS ALONG THE PANHANDLE ATTM GETS            
REINFORCED TOMORROW AND ON TUE AS SHORT WAV ROTATES THRU THE BASE OF            
BROAD EAST COAST MID LEVEL TROF. RESULT IS TAIL OF ELONGATED VORT               
AXIS ACROSS SOME PART OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATE TMRW INTO MID WEEK.            
MDLS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HOW THEY HANDLE FEATURE BUT ALL GUID DEPICTS            
THE SYSTEM WELL. THE ETA SHOWS SHRT WV MOVING THRU KY A BIT                     
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER TWO AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW                
FEATURE SHOWS IN WATER VAP IMG THIS AFTN. THE ETA MAY BE OVERDONE IN            
THE AMT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE HOWEVER...CONSIDERING DRYING                 
TREND MOVING IN FM S. THE NGM ON THE OTHER HAND IS FASTER W/ FEATURE            
AND PUSHES IT FARTHER S. WL FOLLOW MORE IN LINE W/ ETA. POPS SHUD BE            
NEAR OR JST ABV CLIMO FOR NRN AREAS TMRW W/ APPROACH OF VORT AXIS LT            
IN DAY. WL GO BLO GUID/CLIMO S PART FOR MON. PROXIMITY TO                       
WEAKENING/STALLING VRT AXIS ON TUE WL RESULT IN ABV CLIMO POPS.                 
STEERING FLOW W/ BE OUT OF THE SW THRU THE PD AND WL KEEP CHC OF EVE            
ACTVTY ALONG THE COAST.                                                         
MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES S OF WATERS TMRW. WHILE PRES GRAD                
INCREASES ESP OVER N WATERS TMRW AND TUE SHUD BE BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT            
LEVELS. ETA/AVN WND FIELD NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF PRES GRAD ESP IN LATER          
PDS.                                                                            
PRELIM...                                                                       
DAB TT 074/095 074/093 075 05453                                                
MCO BT 075/095 074/093 074 05343                                                
MLB BT 074/094 074/093 075 05332=                                               
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
WIMMER/BLOTTMAN                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 081833  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPILLING             
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.  DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND               
LOWER 50S WILL SLOWLY REPLACE AN AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID            
50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT.  MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF SOME OF               
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HANGS ON              
IN EARNEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  15Z RUC...AND EVEN THE 12Z                    
ETA...SHOW GOOD 950 MB RH HANGING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z OVER                  
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT OVER THE                
THUMB COURTESY OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON.  DEW POINT              
DEPRESSION NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INCREASES                  
OVERNIGHT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH SOME OF            
THE STRATOCU.  WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS...THOUGH...WITH SCT TO BKN                
CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR                
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW                      
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG A BAND NORTH OF A PHN TO CARO                     
LINE...AND PLAN TO CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE THUMB FOR THE                     
EVENING.  WILL LOOK AT LAST SATELLITE IMAGE BEFORE GOING TO PRESS.              
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL             
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH                
SUNSET...AND THE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO            
REACH FWC/FAN MOS...WHICH ARE RATHER CHILLY.  SOME READINGS CLOSE TO            
45 ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED COOL SPOTS BY MORNING.                 
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY               
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AS PER THE                 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  LEAD UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO PROVIDE FOR              
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER              
THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB WHERE MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE                  
HIGHEST.  EXPECT ANY BKN AC TO LAST AN HOUR OR SO IN ANY ONE                    
SPOT...WITH MAIN THRUST OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE             
OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH THE NGM HAS PROGGED INVOF DLH BY 00Z              
TUESDAY...AND THE ETA HAS PROGGED NEAR IWD.  THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES              
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT SLOSHES BACK                 
ACROSS THE AREA.                                                                
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON THE 300K SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST             
MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS CONDENSATION                 
PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL QUICKLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE                  
THUMB.  DRY AIR AOB 850MB HOLDS IN PLACE BEYOND 06Z TUESDAY ACROSS              
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER...BUT UVV AND 850 MB CONVERGENCE STRONG                
ENOUGH ON BOTH THE NGM AND ETA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO MENTION A            
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  BEST VERTICAL MOTION             
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE                    
THUMB...AND DESPITE THE NEARLY NON-EXISTANT QPF ON THE ETA PLAN TO              
FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 MONDAY               
NIGHT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NGM...WHICH SHOWS SOME ELEVATED               
INSTABILITY NEAR 12Z...AGREE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK KEEPING                 
GENERAL THUNDER OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STABILITY ON               
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.  NEGATIVE LIS STAY JUST WEST OF SOUTHEAST                  
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z.  FIGURE A RUMBLE AT BEST...AND WILL NOT                   
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.                                          
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE                  
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.  AFTER A CLOUDY START...BOTH THE NGM               
AND ETA FORECAST MID LEVEL DRYING JUST WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT            
12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA                  
DURING THE DAY.  SUNSHINE...AND CONTINUED HIGH 850MB THETAE AIR...              
SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT TO MENTION A CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING               
HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE FWC THROUGHOUT               
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE AGREEMENT WITH THE FAN.                         
EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FASTER THAN THE MRF WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS              
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES               
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.  HOWEVER...THE MRF IS A BIT                
MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN...WHICH HAS THE LOW BASICALLY OVER THE                
STATE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND JUST EAST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY.  WILL DRY                
THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN...THOUGH                 
THERE MAY BE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND            
SURFACE LOW.  SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS UPON US.                  
UPPER RIDGING PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THE EXTENDED              
MODELS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE            
MRF AND THE UKMET IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER             
THE PACIFIC COAST BY FRIDAY.  THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST                
WITH THE TROUGH...AND ITS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW RESULTS IN             
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE MRF WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND                  
SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF IS MORE LIKE THE MRF WITH THE UPPER PATTERN BUT            
STILL A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.              
MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE WEST OF MI THURSDAY IN MOIST               
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST 850MB WINDS...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY            
WEST OF MI FOLLOWING THE THICKNESS PATTERN.  HOWEVER...FRIDAY                   
COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY IF THE FASTER MRF VERIFIES.  WARM FRONT              
WOULD RETURN LATE FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ON THE              
MRF.  WITH SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MODIFY TREND OF               
EXTENDED FORECAST AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH               
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING OF 700MB TEMPERATURES             
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLY WARM                        
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
DJF                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 081900  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR UPDATE ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.                         
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CU BANDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS                 
ENTIRE UP. 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWEST 100MB LAYER                  
DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 1000-900MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS                
REACH ABOUT 6 OR 7 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE QUITE               
STABLE...SO SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED. LAMP GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND              
AS WELL...TRYING TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UP EARLY AFTERNOON IN WEST             
AND LATER IN THE DAY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.  I THINK MOSTLY                 
SUNNY WORDING IS TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS...ASSUMING               
CLOUDS WILL INDEED DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY                   
WESTERN SECTIONS...AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH SFC HIGH EDGING INTO FA             
FROM THE NW. FORECAST TEMPS A BIT LOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISQ ALREADY            
ABOVE FORECAST HIGH WITH 14Z TEMP OF 63.  WILL BUMP TEMPS UP MOST               
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 081411  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
FOCUS FOR FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS              
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE.                                                 
WHILE NGM/AVN DEPICT THE BEST CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL                    
RUN...ETA VERIFYING QUITE WELL THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF CONVECTIVELY            
INDUCED VORT CENTER NNE OF BNA AT 17Z. HOWEVER BELIEVE STRENGTH OF              
VORT CENTER ON ETA TOO STRING BY 12Z/MON AND PREFER WEAKER SOLUTION             
OF AVN/NGM. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND            
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIEING ACROSS EASTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCT              
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
TONIGHT ACROSS CWA. APPEARS CONVECTION WILL START INITIALLY S-E OF              
RDU IN HIGH THETA-E AIR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT               
SHOULD FIRE CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS OF NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z .             
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE SECTIONS OF CWA             
DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. 15Z RUC LAPSE RATES AND                    
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOW POINT TOWARD WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWA OF              
SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AT THIS                 
TIME...PLAN TO ADVERTISE POPS AS 60% EXTREME WEST TO 40% SE CORNER.             
ETA HOLDS ONTO DYNAMICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NGM/AVN AT 12Z MON                 
WHILE NGM HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 6 HOURS LONGER THAN ETA.                
PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT/SMALL CHC IN THE EASTERN            
HALF OF CWA MON AM.                                                             
TIMING OF DEPARTING CLOUD COVER CRUCIAL TO TEMP FORECAST MON. LOW               
LEVEL THICKNESS WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON NEAR             
90/LOWER 90S. INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST            
OF CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID-DAY HOURS...DELAYING HEATING A BIT.             
AT THIS TIME PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH                
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.                                                           
AS FAR AS TUE...MOS TEMPS WERE 4-6 DEGREES TOO COOL WITH MOST RECENT            
"COOLER AIR" EPISODE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT NR 90 OVER RDU/FAY            
AREAS WITH FULL SUN. PLAN TO ADJUST TUE TEMPS IN THIS DIRECTION.                
RDU 69/87/63/90 5200                    GSO 68/85/63/87 6100                    
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
WSS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 081743  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT SHORTWAVE IN N               
CENT TN ATTM. SHOWERS AND TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NOW AS FAR SOUTH             
AS N GA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION               
AND DPVA AHEAD OF VORT CENTER. ALL MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RUC SHOW             
THIS VORT CENTER CROSSING THE CWA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME                       
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. I PREFER THE STRONGER AND FASTER ETA/RUC           
SINCE IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE APPARENT STRENGTH AND LOCATION             
THIS MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND ABOUT 30 KTS OF SPEED SHEAR               
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST.            
ALTHOUGH BEST WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...STRONG                
DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS UPSTATE AND CLT AREA COULD LEND TO ISOLATED              
SEVERE THERE AS WELL.                                                           
THE ONE CONCERN I HAVE FOR THE FORMATION OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE              
MTNS IS THE CURRENT LOW 60 DWPTS. HOWEVER...DWPTS HAVE REBOUNDED TO             
AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES ACROSS N GA IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. I WOULD            
EXPECT THIS MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTINUE EAST AS UPPER FORCING WITH              
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A NICE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL              
DIVERGENCE COUPLET SETS UP OVER AREA AROUND 00Z. MAIN LEE TROUGH HAS            
MOVED MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN               
OUR AREAS WEATHER.                                                              
ON ITS CURRENT PACE...VORT CENTER WILL BE EAST OF MTNS AROUND 00Z.              
SO WILL GO WITH CAT POPS THIS EVENING IN THE MTNS AND LIKELY                    
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS DRIES RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF                
SHORTWAVE AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.                                        
FOR MONDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CWA...WITH               
BEST PUSH IN THE CENT/ERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT             
IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION...PARALLEL TO NW FLOW. AREAS IN             
NE GA AND SRN UPSTATE MAY NEVER FEEL THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND              
THIS FRONT. TEMPS APPEAR TO COOL A CAT OR TWO BEHIND FRONT WITH                 
THICKNESSES DROPPING SOME. BUT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS                
WILL STILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH TUESDAY.             
IN THE EXTENDED...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF CWA AND RIDGE                    
BUILDING EAST. AREA SHOULD BE UNDER GOOD SUBSIDENCE. COLD                       
FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE WED NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH                   
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH ENOUGH CHC OF RAIN TO MENTION IN FORECAST            
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
AVL 62/84/59/84 3000                                                            
CLT 69/89/65/87 6000                                                            
GSP 69/90/66/89 6000                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 081415  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999                                                       
WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT FROM ZZV-ILN-MVN-VIH              
AND THEN THE FRONT HAS A WAVE ON IT FROM A LOW BETWEEN TUL AND MKO TO           
SGF AND VIH. SEVERAL HOLES IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS HAS                   
ALLOWED A STRONG TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION.  18Z              
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE HAVE VORT MAX JUST EAST OF                  
BNA.                                                                            
THIS MATCHES SPOT ON WITH WHAT THE 12Z AND 15Z RUC ADVERTISED.                  
HOWEVER THE MAIN VORT MAX MOVES TO BETWEEN TYS AND CHA BY 00Z WHILE             
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX EXTENDS FROM DYR-COU.  I EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY             
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE. THE              
H8 THRU H3 THICKNESS WILL MOVE THE NEW ACTIVITY MORE E-SE THAN THIS             
MORNINGS S-SE.   BY 00Z PROGGED LIS WILL BE -4 AND FRONT WILL BE                
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BNA.                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE PERIOD...ZONE ALIGNMENT FOR POPS...                     
BY 00Z PROGGED LIS WILL BE -4 TO -5 AND FRONT WILL BE                           
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BNA.  WITH FORCING PRESENT FROM SFC-H4 AND DEW             
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S EXPECT SCT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT EARLY.  WITH PANDEMIC DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO            
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL TRY TO SHUT OFF THE PRECIP FROM THE N TO THE            
S AND USE A THIS EVENING GROUP IN MOST ZONE GROUPS TO SHUT OFF THE              
RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER ZONES.                
TEMPS WILL BE TRICK TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH TRUE                    
CLEARING FILTERS INTO THE CWA.  A COUPLE OF IL LOCATIONS LAST                   
NIGHT HAD SCT-BKN STRATUS ALONG THE FRONT.  MODELS ADVERTISING                  
MASSIVE DRYING FROM H2-H800.  BOTH ETA AND NGM HAVE 70-80                       
MOISTURE FROM H925-H850.  SO LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS                 
ON MONDAY.  WILL WORD PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF CLEARING TONIGHT IN              
THE ZONES.  HOWEVER WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONES.               
WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHTS ARE DEPENDENT              
ON RADITIONAL COOLING.  1000-850 THICKNESS DROP FROM 1440M TO                   
1405M. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS                 
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU.                                                      
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA BU 071/088 064/090  30/0 0/0                                                
CSV BU 066/082 057/085  30/0 0/0                                                
.BNA...NONE                                                                     
JDG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 081851  tn