AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
247 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)                                                            
MAIN CONCERN IS COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF TSRA WITH FRONT MOVING                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.                                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
POTENT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING                 
CONTINUING TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST...WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT                    
INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE ATTM. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED                
WITH PASSING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
PLAINS...AND IS CURRENTLY BACKED UP AGAINST THE RAMPART RANGE AND               
WET MTS THROUGH A LINE JUST SOUTH OF LHX AND LAA. MSAS PRESSURE                 
TENDENCY CHARTS INDICATING FRONT MAY BE SLOWING WITH ONLY 1-2MB 3HRLY           
PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN CO ATTM. REGION RADARS                  
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING               
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM.                                                 
TONIGHT...FRONT LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO SLOW/STALL OUT ACROSS THE RATON            
MESA REGION THIS EVENING...AS NORTHERN ROCKIES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO              
MOVE AWAY...ALLOWING FOR EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO                  
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NE CO AND                   
WESTERN KANSAS. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE...SHOULD SEE STORMS            
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS THIS EVENING...SPREADING             
ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE                    
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATING               
CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND              
SHEAR ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING               
UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 60 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM           
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND               
WESTERN TEXAS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE POTENTIAL           
FOR SOME MORNING STRATUS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF            
OF THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH SUNSET...WITH CLEARING               
SKIES OVERNIGHT.                                                                
MONDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER                
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO REBUILD ACROSS THE                 
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL KEEP DEW           
PTS IN THE MID 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND WITH                 
STRONG SOLAR HEATING...WILL SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS FIRE ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS. MODELS INDICATING                    
CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS TOMORROW...WITH SOME            
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PENNY SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE.                   
STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AS THE MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND               
INTO A WELL CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THE              
UPSLOPE FLOW...H7 TEMPS BETWEEN 10C-12C AND MORNING CLOUDS...HAVE               
GONE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.                
OUT WEST...MODELS...ESPECIALLY NAM...INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN SLOPES OF               
THE SAN JUANS...AND IS PRINTING OUT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF QPF.                     
THINKING THIS IS A TAD OVERDONE...HAVE KEEP MAINLY ISOLATED POPS                
ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS AND HIGH MT VALLEYS IN THE AFTERNOON.             
WITH WARMING ALOFT AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION...WILL                
SEE TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE                
CWA. -MW                                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
...HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY TUE-FRI...                                            
...POTENTIAL FOR BETTER WETTING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SAT-SUN...               
MON NGT...TRICKY FORECAST MON NGT AND ALL DEPENDS ON THE MOIST                  
CONVECTION FORMING OVER OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MON AFTN.            
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM THE SRN                     
FOOTHILLS INTO NERN NM AND PANHANDLES OF TX/OK. RELATIVELY DEEP                 
MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE                    
MOVING OVERHEAD TO TRIGGER ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER OUR ERN CO                  
MOUNTAINS LATE AFTN AND EVE. ADAQUATE WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE IN                   
PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SUPERCELLS GENERALLY ALONG OUR ERN CO                
MOUNTAINS ERN SLOPES AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SURFACE BASED                 
CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE 1-3K J/KG ALONG OUR ERN MOUNTAINS                 
AND I-25 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. CAPE VALUES              
IN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH ZONE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THIS                   
MODEL RUN AND RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 800-1000 J/KG. WET BULB ZERO                
HEIGHTS ARE PRETTY HIGH...THOUGH...AROUND 14-15K FT MSL...SO THINK              
ANY HAIL POTENTIAL WOULD BE 1/2-3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER AT BEST.                   
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1-1.5K J/KG ARE PROGGED TO BE JUXTAPOSED               
WITH THE HIGHER CAPE AREAS...SO THERE COULD BE A DAMAGING WIND                  
POTENTIAL MON EVE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE               
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS                   
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS...H7-H5 SPECIFIC                
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 6-7 G/KG...AND GEORGE'S K-INDICES OF 40-45C.                 
MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NEWLY CREATED MASON GULCH                  
BURN SCAR...BUT WILL LEAVE THAT TO LATER SHIFTS CONSIDERING THE                 
THREAT WOULD BE LATE MON AFTN AND NGT...AND THERE IS SOME                       
UNCERTAINTY IF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FORM AT ALL. IF THE ISOLD-                
SCT SHRA/TSRA DO FORM LATE MON AFTN...THEN IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A               
SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SERN CO/NERN NM/PANHANDLES               
OF OK AND TX AS S-SWLY 15- 25KT LLJ FORMS OVER ERN NM/WRN TX AND                
OK. THE ASSOCIATED THETA AND THETA-E ADVECTIONS COULD KEEP THE                  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM GOING DURING THE NGT. THE SYSTEM'S MESOBETA                   
ELEMENT(STORM CENTROID) SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE S-SE AT 15-20KT                 
PER CORFIDI VECTOR ANALYSIS.                                                    
TUE-FRI...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL "HOT" HIGH IS STILL PROJECTED TO                
MORE BACK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TUE AND REMAIN AT LEAST                    
THROUGH THU OR FRI. THE WESTERLIES ULJ SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF              
THE CO ROCKIES ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER...SO LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A         
COLD FRONT TO RACE DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. THE ONLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
THAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IS THE DRYLINE...WHICH SHOULD GO THROUGH               
ITS TYPICAL DIURNAL MIGRATION WITH DAYTIME MIXING AND NIGHTTIME                 
COOLING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH                
THIS SYSTEM...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN ALONG            
WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUD BASED VIRGA OR "DRY" THUNDERSTORMS...BUT                 
ONLY A COVERAGE OF 14% OR LESS IF AT ALL. HOT TEMPS SHOULD BE THE               
MAIN STORY WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE +18 TO +22C ACROSS SRN CO.               
THIS WILL PROMOTE MAX TEMPS NEAR 100F AT PUB FOR TUE THROUGH THU                
AND POSSIBLY FRI. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 90S                 
EACH DAY...TOO.                                                                 
SAT AND SUN...STILL LOOKS LIKE A PATTERN CHANGE MAYBE COMING. THE               
MID LEVEL "BERMUDA HIGH" SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND SERN               
US WITH THE MID LEVELS WINDS CONTINUING OUT OF THE S-SW ACROSS THE              
DESERT SW AND CNTRL ROCKIES FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS POTENTIAL                
"MONSOON" FLOW PATTERN COULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER KEY               
FEATURE TO THIS FLOW WILL BE THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM                     
"EMILY" POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE DESERT SW AND CNTRL ROCKIES NEXT               
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. SFC DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S                    
ACROSS SRN AZ AND SRN NM. IF THIS FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES AND THE                
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM "EMILY" DO MOVE INTO THE DESERT                      
SW...RELATIVELY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO SRN CO                   
WITH SFC DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 40S/50S FOR IN THE MOUNTAINS                  
AND HIGH VALLEYS. THIS WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE-                
HEAVY RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES...IF EVERYTHING               
COMES TOGETHER. [METZE]                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/17                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
255 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL KEEP THE SAME FORECAST TREND THIS WEEK. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES            
IN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY. THE 12 UTC                        
MODEL RUN OF THE GFS AND NAM WERE CLOSE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURE AND               
SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR               
POSITION OF SURFACE HIGH AND LOWS AND WILL FORECAST MAXIMUM AND                 
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.                         
WE WILL LEAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER              
OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN                   
INDIANA. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ON MONDAY. THE 500 MB                  
TROUGH HAS 90 METER HEIGHT FALLS IN NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING.             
THE SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE MOISTURE IN THE REGION                 
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR                  
MONDAY AROUND 30 PERCENT. THIS WILL BE RAPID MOVING COLD FRONT                  
THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. SO THE WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO                  
RETURN  WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER AIR TROUGH AND SURFACE                
FRONT. THOSE FEATURES WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE               
WARM AIR WILL RECOVER INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
WE USED THE GFS FOR TIMING OF THESE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
MAIN CONCERN AVIATION WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE EVOLUTION             
OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW              
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                           
RADAR/SURFACE OBS TO THIS POINT INDICATING LAKE BREEZE NOT SHOWING              
MUCH INLAND PENETRATION. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW OF BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AT 950 HPA WHICH AGREES FAVORABLY               
WITH RUC/NAM PROGS. EXPECTING THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG                
ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DID                 
TREND WIND DIRECTIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE 21Z TIME FRAME.            
MID LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALSO EVIDENT ON ACARS SOUNDINGS WHICH HAS            
CAPPED THINGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO            
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THIS IS NOW BEING OVERCOME WITH INCREASING             
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NOTED SOUTH OF I-80 AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE                    
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN. STILL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED -TSRA                
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF LAKE BREEZE BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS                   
AFFECTING ORD/MDW/GYY APPEARS TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS                
POINT ALTHOUGH THINK THAT GYY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE.                      
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL            
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MAKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THIS            
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TOWARD VERY END AND OUTSIDE OF FORECAST PERIOD.              
WILL SEE GRADUAL SHIFT IN WINDS TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING WITH                
BUKFIT GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM NAM BUFFER FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                                 
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
100 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
ONCE AGAIN...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FCST THRU MON.  HAVE FAVORED ETA              
THRU NR TERM AS IT APPEARS TO BE MORE METEOROLOGICALLY CONSISTENT.              
AS OLD UPR TROF CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF TO NE...INCRSG                
SLY-SWLY LLVL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING SHORT WV OVR NRN PLAINS                
WILL RESULT IN AN INFLUX OF MORE HEAT FOR TDY.  ALONG WITH                      
THIS...SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO HOVER IN 65 TO 70 DEG RANGE                   
TDY...AND RISE INTO LWR 70S TNGT.  AMS DOES BCM SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE               
AND THERE IS A CHC THAT A VERY ISOLD TSTM COULD POP UP THIS                     
AFTN...BUT AT THIS POINT...LTL TO FOCUS ON FOR DVLPMT SO WILL KEEP              
POPS BLO MENTION MOST AREAS.  ONLY EXCEPTION IS ONCE AGAIN IN FAR               
SERN PORTION OF FA WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARIES FROM YDY'S            
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR DVLPMT.             
BLOWOFF FROM TSTMS /PSBL LINEAR MCS/ EXPECTED TO DVLP TO NW TDY IN              
RGN OF SLGT RISK /SWODY1 FROM SPC/ WILL OVRSPREAD FA TNGT.  IN                  
ADDITION...AXIS OF HI TOTALS INDEX AND TIGHTENING SWLY GRADIENT                 
SUGGESTS TNGT WILL BE RATHER MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE COMPARED TO                
PAST NIGHTS.  WILL KEEP LO CHC POPS IN FOR MON...BUT WITH TYPICALLY             
LOUSY TIMING OF FROPA...BELIEVE ETA HAS BEST HANDLE ON PRECIP POTL              
WITH PREFRONTAL TROF MOVG THRU MOST OF IL BY ERLY AFTN.  THIS WOULD             
YIELD SCENARIO THAT HAS FRESH CONVECTION DVLPG OVR SERN FA BY MID               
AFTN AS TSTM CARCASS FROM TNGT'S CONVECTION DSIPTS OVR NRN IL.  THIS            
IS ADVERTIZED VERY WELL BY ETA FCST OMEGA FIELD MON-MON EVE.  SFC HI            
DVLPS OVR WRN GRTLKS MON NGT AND IS OVR FA ON TUES.  THE WHOLE                  
SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE FCST TO REPEAT ITSELF WED-THUR WITH WED                
TURNING HOT AND HUMID AHD OF NXT FROPA ON THUR...FOLLOWED BY TEMPO              
RELIFT FROM HEAT FRI AS HI MOVS ACRS UPR GRTLKS. HAVE BUMPED UP                 
TEMPS A BIT IN EXTENDED AS NEW MED RANGE GUID SUGGESTS H5 HGTS WILL             
BE BLDG OVR MID MS/LWR OH VLY...WITH H85 TEMPS FCST TO BE NR 24 C.              
THIS TREND...IF IT PANS OUT...SUGGESTS MORE HEAT NXT WEEKEND.                   
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
MAIN CONCERN AVIATION WISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE EVOLUTION             
OF THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW              
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                           
RADAR/SURFACE OBS TO THIS POINT INDICATING LAKE BREEZE NOT SHOWING              
MUCH INLAND PENETRATION. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW OF BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AT 950 HPA WHICH AGREES FAVORABLY               
WITH RUC/NAM PROGS. EXPECTING THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONG                
ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKE BREEZE FROM REACHING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DID                 
TREND WIND DIRECTIONS FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH IN THE 21Z TIME FRAME.            
MID LEVEL ISOTHERMAL LAYER ALSO EVIDENT ON ACARS SOUNDINGS WHICH HAS            
CAPPED THINGS THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING INTO            
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THIS IS NOW BEING OVERCOME WITH INCREASING             
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NOTED SOUTH OF I-80 AND ALONG LAKE BREEZE                    
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER                   
MICHIGAN. STILL WOULD NOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED -TSRA                
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF LAKE BREEZE BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS                   
AFFECTING ORD/MDW/GYY APPEARS TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS                
POINT ALTHOUGH THINK THAT GYY WOULD STAND THE BEST CHANCE.                      
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD STAY UP IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL            
HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MAKING              
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THIS            
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE TOWARD VERY END AND OUTSIDE OF FORECAST PERIOD.              
WILL SEE GRADUAL SHIFT IN WINDS TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING WITH                
BUKFIT GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM NAM BUFFER FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                                 
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
923 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MODIFIED POPS DOWN SOME TONIGHT. OVERBEARING MID LEVEL CAP/INHIBITION           
DOUSED EARLIER CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IN            
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST KANSAS. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED, MAINLY POST-              
FRONTAL, CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH AID OF MODEST LOW              
LEVEL JET, AS FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. EVEN SO, AREAL            
COVERAGE AND SEVERE RISK PROBABLY NOT AS GOOD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.            
OTHERWISE, ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO GRIDS, MAINLY BLENDING EVENING TRENDS          
INTO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.                                                        
KED                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005/                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.                  
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY STARTING TO KNOCK ON KEARNEY NEBRASKA AND HILL CITY KANSAS.            
STILL NOT SEEING VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON               
THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL TO OVERCOME               
ACCORDING THE RUC ANALYSIS. WAS ALSO LOOKING AT THE MCCOOK PROFILER             
AND IT DOES NOT LOOK THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS VERY DEEP.                    
NEVERTHELESS, I WOULD EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS                
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES              
HAVE REACHED THE CENTURY MARK. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE ON THE ORDER OF            
2500 J/KG SO THEY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. THESE              
STORMS SHOULD TRACK MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH, SO THEY WOULD MOST             
LIKELY NOT AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY ON, BUT IT WILL BEAR                     
WATCHING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING             
OUT OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP STEEPEN 700-500MB               
LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION WHILE THE               
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS WAVE CROSSES THE              
FRONT, I WOULD EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FIRE UP AND POSSIBLY REACH                 
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE BY 06Z. 0-6            
KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH MOST             
UNSTABLE CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000J/KG. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
IF A FEW THESE STORMS BECOME PULSE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND               
PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AS THE NIGHT                 
WEARS ON, THESE STORMS MAY GENERATE A GOOD COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE              
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE PULSE SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER                 
MIDNGHT, BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, DUE TO            
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET BEING IN PLACE.  WE DID KEEP MOST              
OF THE STORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SINCE THE FRONT REALLY NEVER DOES            
MAKE IT THERE.                                                                  
MONDAY:                                                                         
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE THUNDERSTORMS EITHER                
ALONG THE MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT MAINLY IN            
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING. WE DID              
BOOST POPS IN THIS REGION, BUT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS BY               
AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.            
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 85-90 DEGREE MARK.                
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
WE DID KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                  
PICTURE MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE            
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. WE ARE NOT REALLY           
CONFIDENT ON HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT AT THIS POINT, SINCE THIS                  
TIMEFRAME IS MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
WILL BE. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE FACTORED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION                
TAKES PLACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                 
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN             
HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE STORMS TO RIDE                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL BE BAKING AT 95-100            
DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                              
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    70  87  68  93 /  40  60  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON      70  87  68  93 /  50  50  10  10                                
NEWTON          70  87  68  93 /  50  60  20  20                                
ELDORADO        71  87  69  92 /  30  50  20  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  69  92 /  20  40  20  20                                
RUSSELL         67  88  67  93 /  50  20  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      68  88  67  94 /  60  20  10  10                                
SALINA          69  90  69  95 /  60  30  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       70  87  68  93 /  60  50  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     73  92  69  90 /  10  30  30  30                                
CHANUTE         72  89  69  90 /  10  40  30  30                                
IOLA            72  88  69  90 /  20  40  30  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DARMOFAL/COX                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
339 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK.                  
TONIGHT:                                                                        
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY STARTING TO KNOCK ON KEARNEY NEBRASKA AND HILL CITY KANSAS.            
STILL NOT SEEING VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON               
THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL TO OVERCOME               
ACCORDING THE RUC ANALYSIS. WAS ALSO LOOKING AT THE MCCOOK PROFILER             
AND IT DOES NOT LOOK THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS VERY DEEP.                    
NEVERTHELESS, I WOULD EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS                
NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE TEMPERATURES              
HAVE REACHED THE CENTURY MARK. MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE ON THE ORDER OF            
2500 J/KG SO THEY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. THESE              
STORMS SHOULD TRACK MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH, SO THEY WOULD MOST             
LIKELY NOT AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY ON, BUT IT WILL BEAR                     
WATCHING. LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING             
OUT OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP STEEPEN 700-500MB               
LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL HELP BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION WHILE THE               
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. ONCE THIS WAVE CROSSES THE              
FRONT, I WOULD EXPECT MORE STORMS TO FIRE UP AND POSSIBLY REACH                 
AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE BY 06Z. 0-6            
KM SHEAR VALUES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH MOST             
UNSTABLE CAPES BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000J/KG. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED              
IF A FEW THESE STORMS BECOME PULSE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND               
PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. AS THE NIGHT                 
WEARS ON, THESE STORMS MAY GENERATE A GOOD COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE              
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL               
KANSAS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORE PULSE SEVERE STORMS SHORTLY AFTER                 
MIDNGHT, BUT THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, DUE TO            
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET BEING IN PLACE.  WE DID KEEP MOST              
OF THE STORMS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SINCE THE FRONT REALLY NEVER DOES            
MAKE IT THERE.                                                                  
MONDAY:                                                                         
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MORE THUNDERSTORMS EITHER                
ALONG THE MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT MAINLY IN            
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING. WE DID              
BOOST POPS IN THIS REGION, BUT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS BY               
AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED.            
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW BEHIND THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 85-90 DEGREE MARK.                
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY:                                                           
WE DID KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                  
PICTURE MAINLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE            
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. WE ARE NOT REALLY           
CONFIDENT ON HOW THINGS WILL PAN OUT AT THIS POINT, SINCE THIS                  
TIMEFRAME IS MOSTLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
WILL BE. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE FACTORED ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION                
TAKES PLACE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.                                                 
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY:                                                               
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN             
HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF THE STORMS TO RIDE                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL BE BAKING AT 95-100            
DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    70  87  68  93 /  40  60  20  20                                
HUTCHINSON      70  87  68  93 /  50  50  10  10                                
NEWTON          70  87  68  93 /  50  60  20  20                                
ELDORADO        71  87  69  92 /  30  50  20  20                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  89  69  92 /  20  40  20  20                                
RUSSELL         67  88  67  93 /  50  20  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      68  88  67  94 /  60  20  10  10                                
SALINA          69  90  69  95 /  60  30  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       70  87  68  93 /  60  50  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     73  92  69  90 /  10  30  30  30                                
CHANUTE         72  89  69  90 /  10  40  30  30                                
IOLA            72  88  69  90 /  20  40  30  30                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
18/COX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
100 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO                    
SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS SEEN ON KGLD WSR-88D.            
THE MOST RECENT TREND SUGGESTS THE FRONT IS NEARLY                              
STATIONARY...WHICH THE 12Z NAM/RUC SUGGESTED. THEREFORE INCREASED               
POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS            
AND KEPT A POST FRONTAL MENTION TO CAPTURE ANYTHING THAT DRIFTS                 
EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED ANY MORNING MENTION              
ON MONDAY AS FRONT/CLUSTER/MCS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AS SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY                        
AFTERNOON...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES EAST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY                   
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AS INSTABILITY AXIS                 
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.                                 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH            
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS THE STRONG SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO                 
CANADA. THE THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD            
BEGIN THE START OF A HOT WEEK. AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING               
THUNDERSTORM APPEARS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE...HOWEVER WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE.              
DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MID/UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE              
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE             
UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE                 
SURFACE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY HIGH MAKING IT QUITE                     
UNCOMFORTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ON                
THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND MOVE EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS                   
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST. RELUCTANT TO MAKE              
BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS POINT BUT SHOW A SUBTLE                 
TREND DOWN BEGINNING FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS DECREASE ONLY                  
SLIGHTLY. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BRIEFLY ON             
SATURDAY WITH A BOUNDARY ENTERING THE WEST/NORTHWEST. CONTINUED TO              
SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEP THE DRY FORECAST                
INTACT.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1139 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONE MORE QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID EIGHTIES FOR             
NORTHEAST CWA AS CONTINUED CAA REALLY HOLDING THERE TEMPS IN CHECK.             
FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT AT 17Z...LOOKS LIKE HIGH            
TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED RIGHT BEFORE FRONT GETS TO THE AREA SO ADDED            
SOME STEADY-NON DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS ALONG AN ITR-GLD-MCK LINE.                  
FURTHER SOUTH...FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND VERY WARM TEMPS                
NEAR 100 STILL LOOK GOOD.                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT                
THAT IS STEADILY MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA AS OF 14Z.                
06Z/12Z NAM HAVE BEEN DOING REASONABLY WELL TIMING THIS FEATURE OUT             
AND AS A RESULT HAVE WENT MORE WITH ITS TIMING IN THE GRIDS. MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING. ALL              
MODELS STALL FRONT OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IN              
SOUTHERN CWA THAT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF             
VERY WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS NEARING 100.                                       
THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TILL AROUND 21Z.                     
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG SEVERE                
STORMS. VERY STRONG CAP INITIALLY SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TILL LATER           
IN THE DAY PROBABLY IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE               
RATHER EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT ON BOTH THE RUC AND THE ETA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RATHER              
VIGOROUS LIFT RIGHT OFF THE SFC. WITH THESE CONDITIONS SETTING UP               
RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A BRIEF                  
LANDSPOUT OR TWO WHEN STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
927 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND THE TIMING OF COLD FRONT                
THAT IS STEADILY MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA AS OF 14Z.                
06Z/12Z NAM HAVE BEEN DOING REASONABLY WELL TIMING THIS FEATURE OUT             
AND AS A RESULT HAVE WENT MORE WITH ITS TIMING IN THE GRIDS. MAIN               
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS BEFORE STALLING. ALL              
MODELS STALL FRONT OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A BIT COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT IN              
SOUTHERN CWA THAT IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF             
VERY WARM TEMPS...WITH HIGHS NEARING 100.                                       
THINK BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TILL AROUND 21Z.                     
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG SEVERE                
STORMS. VERY STRONG CAP INITIALLY SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT TILL LATER           
IN THE DAY PROBABLY IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE               
RATHER EXTREME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF               
THE FRONT ON BOTH THE RUC AND THE ETA...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RATHER              
VIGOROUS LIFT RIGHT OFF THE SFC. WITH THESE CONDITIONS SETTING UP               
RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A BRIEF                  
LANDSPOUT OR TWO WHEN STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1019 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S.                                        
TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AT THIS TIME THAN                   
YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE LOWER DECK OF STRATUS AND FOG WAS THICKER               
TODAY THAN ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY CATCH             
UP IN THE STRONG HEATING...AND MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY                  
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S NUMBERS. DEWPOINTS ARE              
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME.                                                           
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS ALSO PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. A                    
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR BWI TO IAD TO CHO...WITH OTHER            
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ALSO LURKING AROUND. THIS TIME YESTERDAY                   
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD FIRED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF              
THE CWFA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.                                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE A LITTLE FURTHER                     
EAST..OVER THE NORTHERN DELMARVA FOR TODAY. ONCE AGAIN...SUBTLE                 
DRYING IS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR BEHIND THE MID LEVEL FEATURE. MAY            
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO FIRE CONVECTION TODAY. THE RUC IS PROGGING              
CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT AROUND 15Z TODAY...WHICH IS RIGHT ABOUT THE             
TIME WE HIT OUT CONVECTIVE TEMP ACCORDING TO THE 12Z SOUNDING AND               
CURRENT GRIDS. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. CONVECTION WILL TEND TO FOCUS             
UPON THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG ANY LEFTOVER MESOSCALE                 
BOUNDARIES.                                                                     
THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S...VERY UNSTABLE WITH            
HIGH PWATS. PWATS ARE SLIGHTLY DOWN FROM YESTERDAYS...BUT STILL                 
REMAIN SOLIDLY OVER TWO INCHES. THE STEERING WINDS ARE STILL VERY               
LIGHT...WITH STORM MOTION LESS THAN 10KTS. ANOTHER DAY OF TORRENTIAL            
RAINFALL...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.                                        
HEAT INDICES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM                      
TODAY...REACHING NEAR 100 DEGREES.                                              
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL ONLY MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TDA/TNGT)...                                                        
WE ARE IN A BKN RECORD FCST NOW. AIR MASS RMNS UNCHGD. BLV LATE AFTN            
TRW LKLY AGN LASTING INTO THE EVE. ANOTHER EVE OF HVY RAINERS IS                
PSBL.                                                                           
IT'S BEEN AWHILE SINCE I RECALL SEEING DWPTS SO HIGH HERE - FWC/MAV             
BOTH PROJECTING M70S THIS AFTN. THIS IN COMBO W/ TEMPS ARND 90 W/               
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES ARND 100. HT ADVSRY CURRENTLY UP WL CONTINUE.              
AND THEN...ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF SULTRY NGTS ON TAP AFTR EVE TRW             
DIES OFF.                                                                       
WOODY!                                                                          
AVIATION...VSBYS DOWN TO ARND 1SM XPCTD AT CHO/IAD/MRB PREDAWN                  
HRS..THEN SOME RESTRICTIONS IN TRW AFT 19Z.                                     
LONG TERM (MON-SAT)                                                             
MON...SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA EXPECTED IN TROPICAL AMS WITH                  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S AND PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. HEAT                 
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.                                                       
TUE...MODELS SUGGEST LESS CONVECTIVE CVRG THAN MON AS FLOW BECOMES              
MORE FROM THE WSW WHICH WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.             
A SIG DROPOFF IS ALSO SEEN ON PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS FROM NEAR               
2.5 INS MON TO 1.75 INS. LOWERED POPS TO SCHANCE ALL AREAS. TEMPS               
ALSO LIKELY TO BE HOTTER GIVEN DOWNSLOPING WSW FLOW. HEAT INDICES               
100-105F.                                                                       
WED...GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST THREE DAYS IN                 
PUSHING A WEAK CDFNT THRU THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA ON WED. IT              
ALSO HAS STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT SO WILL BUY IN CDFNT CLEARING THE              
NRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA. REMOVED POPS IN THE NRN HALF AND MADE                
SKIES M/SUNNY THERE. LEFT A 20 POP FOR FAR SRN AREAS.                           
REST OF THE EXTENDED...FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT QUICKLY ON THU WITH              
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF                  
ISOLD/SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. NEXT CDFNT ADVERSTISED BY GFS               
LATE IN THE WEEK LOOKS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF FCST AS              
IS.                                                                             
ROSA                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR DCZ001 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.                                
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018 UNTIL 6               
     PM MONDAY.                                                                 
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR VAZ036>042-050>057 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.                    
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LISTEMAA                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ROSA/WOODY!                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1101 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.                   
PRESENT CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AT 0230Z             
WAS RIDING A THETA-E RIDGE.  THESE STORMS ARE ALSO ON THE HEELS OF              
DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION.  THE RUC SHOWS THE THETA-E RIDGE                     
EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MKG AND POINTS NORTH.  BELIEVE WE                
WILL SEE COVERAGE INCREASE THROUGH 06Z OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE               
LAKESHORE.  AS CELLS MOVE EAST EXPECT THEY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE            
NIGHT...SO NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT AREAS SE OF GRAND RAPIDS WILL SEE              
MUCH...BUT WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS AS A FEW DECAYING SHOWERS/STORMS             
COULD REACH THIS AREA TOO.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN JUST               
SHY OF 2 INCHES SO RAIN COULD BE VERY HEAVY IN SOME LOCALES.  WITH              
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND POSSIBLY CREEPING UP INTO THE LOWER 70S               
OVERNIGHT... MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.                                  
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JK                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL/STRENGTH.                            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A VIGOROUS MID LVL TROF OVER              
THE SRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH A 500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR              
LK WINNIPEG. AREA OF TSRA OVER NE MN THAT WAS LIFTING NE WAS                    
SUPPORTED BY A SHRTWV SPOKE FROM SE MANITOBA INTO NRN MN. ANOTHER               
SHRTWV AND JET MAX WITH ATTENDANT HGT FALLS AND DPVA HAD SPURRED                
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOLID LINE OF TSTMS FROM KMSP TO ERN NEB. THE SFC              
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KELO-KDLH-KMSP INTO NW IA.                        
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 00Z RUC SUGGEST THAT SOME SHRA/TSRA                  
SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE W HLF OF UPR MI AS THE DYNAMICS INCLUDING                
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIV/DIFFLUENCE AND 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH SRN            
SHRTWV COINCIDE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. WHILE             
TSTMS MAY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO UPR MI WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME                  
HEATING AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY...30 KT LOW LVL SW FLOW FROM                
AREA WHERE CAPES WERE NEAR 1.5K-2.5K J/KG SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH                 
INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH              
OF THE MN MCS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...GOING FCST WITH SCT COVERAGE AND             
ARRIVAL TIME FROM 06Z-12Z LOOKS ON TRACK. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR WILL                
ALSO BE INCREASING...MOST FAVORABLE 0-6KM VALUES AOA 35 KT ARRIVE               
BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. WITH VERY HIGH                    
FREEZING LVL AND WET-BULB ZERO NEAR 16K FT/13.5K FT...WIND GUSTS TO             
NEAR 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.                     
&&                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 515 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                            
PRIMARY CONCERNS IS CONVECTION CHANCES/STRENGTH THROUGH MONDAY AND              
WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MON.                                     
HOT AND HUMID ATTM WITH TEMPS IN MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES                  
FLIRTING WITH 100F. A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME CLOUD COVER AS CU                
BUBBLED UP EARLY IN AFTN AND EVEN WHERE BLYR WINDS WEAKLY CONVERGED             
OVR DICKINSON/IRON COUNTIES...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT               
DEVELOPED. OUT WEST IN MN...AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND                
FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET LIKELY DUE TO MID LEVEL CAPPING WITH H7            
TEMPS AOA +12C. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG H85 FRONT OVR             
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO AHEAD OF PVA FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR NE ND            
PER WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. TRENDS FM WV LOOP AND SHORT RANGE RUC             
INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THIS                   
EVENING...WHILE SECONDARY SHORTWAVES OVR MT/WY SLIDE ENE INTO N WI              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
AN AVERAGE OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCAPE WILL REMAIN FROM             
AROUND 1000 J/KG OVR CNTRL UPR MI TO AOA 2000 J/KG OVR W ZONES. CINH            
VARIES BUT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 J/KG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS             
LEAD (STRONGER) SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED H85 JET OF 40KT RIDES NE               
INTO ONTARIO...WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS OVERNIGHT FCST ON SECONDARY                  
SHORTWAVES. NAM/GFS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SLIGHTLY                      
INCREASING LLJ BEGINNING TO AFFECT SW ZONES AROUND 06Z THEN PUSHING             
E THROUGH 12Z. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR                   
INCREASES WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 50KT JUST W OF IWD BY 06Z. BEST CHANCE             
OF STRONGER STORMS EXISTS IN SW ZONES OVERNIGHT. UNTIL                          
THEN...BESIDES THE VERY ISOLD (AND DIMINISHING) TS ROAMING DICKINSON            
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...THINK OVERALL CAPPING TO THE W AND S OF CWA            
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. ONLY WENT AS HIGH AS 50 POPS FOR SW                
MAINLY BASED ON THE SPLITTING DYNAMICS AND THE QUICKLY EVADING DEEP             
MOISTURE BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEL QPF INDICATES THIS WITH PCPN FALLING            
DECREASING RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL UPR MI TOWARD 12Z WITH              
LITTLE REFORMING AFTER THAT INTO E ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT TS OVR            
E HALF ON MON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BUT CHANCES NOT VERY                      
IMPRESSIVE WITH OVERALL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING IN QUICKLY              
AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS.                                     
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS W HALF OF UPR MI WITHIN SLIGHT RISK FOR                 
TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALREADY MENTIONED AND INCREASING                
SHEAR DOES SUPPORT THAT. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVERNIGHT             
AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEARS AND SWRLY H85 WINDS HELP PUMP FEED OF              
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (H85 THETA-E ADVECTION). BLYR                   
STABILIZATION WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT...SO SOME                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC ARE POSSIBLE AS DELTA THETA-E VALUES             
ARE AROUND 40K THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                               
ATTN WILL THEN TURN TO WINDS LATER ON MON INTO MON EVENING AS TROUGH            
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. 30-35KT BLYR WINDS SHOULD MIX READILY TO THE SFC            
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AND MAY NEED TO SEE AN ADVISORY HEADLINE ON THE              
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. INCREASED LAKE WINDS TO 30KT...JUST BLO GALE.               
ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH JUST BLO ADVY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS             
BTWN 30-35MPH. TROUGH AXIS AND H85 THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS LK              
SUPERIOR/NRN UPR MI INTO MON NIGHT. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE SLUG OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 2KFT) PRESENT IN NW              
ND ATTM WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL              
OCCUR OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS SO HAVE CUT POPS FARTHER INLAND. MAY SEE              
CLOUDS STICK AROUND EARLY TUE BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN AFTN AS            
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST               
AREAS WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY AROUND +10C.                                          
EXTENDED (WED THROUGH SUN)...A COUPLE FRONTS TO CONTEND WITH IN THE             
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES AND MAX TEMPERATURES ARE MAIN CONCERNS. ENOUGH             
HEIGHT FALLS STILL DEPICTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AM TO PUSH A WEAK                
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...AND AM               
NOT CONVINCED THESE SHRA/TS WOULD GET INTO MY E ZONES AS PRIMARY                
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 12Z              
RUN OF GFS BACK TO A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT WITH THE                 
OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS HOLDING OVR MUCH OF CONUS...THINK FRONT WILL             
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SE INTO UPR MI. AHEAD OF FRONT WED MAY BE VERY              
WARM AGAIN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS NEAR +20C AGAIN                
(AROUND 90 FOR MAX TEMP). COOLER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI...BUT              
LIKE YDY...NOT GOING WITH SUCH EXPANSIVE HIGH AS GFS INDICATES. SOME            
MINOR COOLING IS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT AS BLYR WINDS ARE MORE ERLY. KEPT             
POPS IN FOR SW ZONES AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO SW BEGINS TO LIFT              
TOWARD AREA SAT. UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR N THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS BY               
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN PUSH IT INTO              
UPR MI ON SUN...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AS WELL. HOWEVER...EXPERIMENTAL            
REFORECAST ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHER              
PRESSURES OVR LK SUPERIOR REGION...KEEPING FRONT/WARMTH AND PCPN                
CHANCES TO THE S. GOING WITH A FRONTAL POSN CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE              
OVR N WI SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SW HALF OF CWA ON SUN. ALSO               
INCREASED TEMPS A BIT FROM SAT. IF FRONT LIFTS ON THROUGH...THE MAX             
TEMP GRIDS FOR SUN WILL BE TOO COOL.                                            
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY THIS EVENING                 
MIZ002>005-009>012-084.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA(PREV DISCUSSION)                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
958 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...00Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN MN/                   
NORTHWEST IA/NORTHERN NE...WITH PERHAPS A SECONDARY FRONT OVER                  
WESTERN MN (WHERE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT IS LOCATED...SINCE THERMAL                  
GRADIENT IS OUT AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS).  BROKEN LINE OF                  
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY                 
ACROSS MN/IA.  CLOSER TO HOME...SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH              
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IS             
FADING.  BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER LAKE HURON...            
STILL JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE MOST PART.  HAVE BEEN TRACKING A COUPLE             
OF VORTICITY CENTERS IN WV IMAGERY THIS EVENING...ONE MOVING EAST               
OUT ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY...AND A SECOND ONE TRAILING BACK ACROSS                 
NORTHEAST LOWER.  THIS LATTER FEATURE LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR FLARE              
UP OF SHOWERS OVER LAKE HURON...AND SOME SPOTTY INLAND CONVECTION               
EAST OF I-75.  NO APX SOUNDING TONIGHT...AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS IN THE              
VICINITY NOT SHOWING MUCH INSTABILITY OFF THE SURFACE THOUGH THERE              
ARE OBVIOUSLY POCKETS OF IT ABOUT (WITH SOME ACCAS OUT THE WINDOW AS            
AN EXAMPLE).  SO AS TRAILING VORTICITY CENTER HEADS TOWARD LAKE                 
HURON MAY STILL STILL AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER                   
NORTHEAST LOWER THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO.                                   
AS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...STRONGER FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING            
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE             
AREA UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING...WITH LIKELY AT LEAST SOME WEAK                
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORT WAVES FROM TODAY.  ALSO ENOUGH            
CINH IN OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST               
OVERNIGHT.  WILL SEE SOME FOG AND HAZE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS               
EXPECTED TO PICK UP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON DON'T ANTICIPATE THIS                 
GETTING OUT OF HAND.                                                            
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA MAY TRY TO                
MAKE A RUN AT LOWER MI TOWARD DAYBREAK IF IT CAN HANG ON THROUGH THE            
NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PLOWS EASTWARD...SO WILL DRAG CURRENT MORNING               
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS AREA FARTHER SOUTH            
TO AT LEAST ENCOMPASS AREAS WEST OF I-75 TO COVER THIS POSSIBLE                 
SCENARIO.                                                                       
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EDT SUN JUL 17.                                
UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN LIFTING NE ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS                 
AFTERNOON...TAKING MINOR H8-H5 -DIVQ AND BETTER THETA-E AIR ALONG               
WITH IT...WITH SUBSIDENCE REGION MOVING IN BEHIND. SFC MAP AT 18Z               
SHOWS SHOWS MAIN SFC TROUGH FROM SRN LAKE HURON DOWN INTO THE DTX               
AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP ACROSS NE LOWER...              
EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. THIS BEING PRODUCED BY LAKE BREEZE MOVING                
INLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED IN THIS ZONE...AND                 
LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAD BEEN OCCURRING IN CENTRAL ALCONA              
AND IOSCO COUNTIES. IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY               
STUBBORN TO ERODE...BUT THERE TEMPERATURES WERE TRYING TO RESPOND...            
BY SCRATCHING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER 80S. FURTHER WEST TOWARD LAKE            
MICHIGAN...SLIGHTLY LOWER THETA-E AIR RESIDED...AND EVEN WITH TEMPS             
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...CONVECTION HAS NOT                     
RESPONDED.                                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...CAN WE FIRE CONVECTION FURTHER               
WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING? FOG                  
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER            
MONDAY WITH ADVANCING COOL FRONT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.                 
RE-MODIFIED 12Z APX SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC40 SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA            
SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS 1200-2000J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR THE                      
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS CLIMB. AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE            
AND LOWER THETA-E AIR TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE W THOUGH...SO IT               
WILL BE A STRUGGLE. ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LESS CAPE...ON THE              
ORDER OF 1000J/KG OR LESS. LAPS SUGGESTING GREATER INSTABILITY                  
AROUND...BUT BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...FEEL THAT ONLY                   
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP I-75 WESTWARD. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE              
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED NEAR LAKE                   
HURON...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN UP ON LATEST RADAR.               
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN                
THROUGH 00Z...AS ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP.                
LOOK FOR PRECIP-FREE WX AFTER 00Z...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY                  
CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY ABUNDANT AND HAZE WILL BE                  
COMMON INTO THE EVENING...EVEN UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY              
EAST). LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM             
COOL FRONT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL                    
WISCONSIN.  MAY NEED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.                                
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WEAK WAA WING DOES RIDE INTO EASTERN UPPER AND               
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT                 
SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP-FREE AS BETTER THETA-E POOLING            
ALONG THE FRONT BACK TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP SMALL 30% POPS FOR EARLY            
IN THE MORNING IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...BUT MAIN ACTION FROM THE FRONT            
DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING KICKING UP              
SBCAPES INTO THE 1800-2500J/KG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CADILLAC TO                 
ALPENA.  BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING THAT MAX THETA-E...RIGHT                   
ENTRANCE REGION/UPPER LAYER DIVERGENCE OF 80-90KT JET RESULTING IN              
AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. FREEZING LEVELS STILL UP AROUND 14KFT              
SO HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TOO MUCH OF A THREAT...AND FAIRLY                       
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR EVOLUTION.                 
THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS            
WARRANTED AS STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH BULK SHEAR            
VALUES AS HIGH AS 40KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORMS TO OUR SW                
ROBBING SOME OF THE MOISTURE FEED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT AS FOR               
NOW...THE SE CWA IS THE TARGET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE              
HURON WILL BRING TOO STABLE OF CONDITIONS FOR DECENT INSTABILITY TO             
DEVELOP. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT DO NOT LOOK              
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERRIDE THE MARINE INFLUENCE.   SMD                       
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS LOOKING            
MORE CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC THAN THE NAM, ESPECIALLY WITH TUESDAY.            
MONDAY NIGHT...AT 00Z THE 500 MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION            
WITH A PRETTY POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z              
AND WITH THE DIURNAL HEAT EXPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH                     
INSTABILITY (GFS SHOWING 0 TO -2C FOR LI)FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE               
EVENING. THE 850 TEMPERATURES AREN'T AS COLD AS ADVERTISED                      
YESTERDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE NOT ONLY IN THE 850 LAYER, BUT IN THE              
700-500 LAYER AS WELL WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE A                        
CONTINUATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z.                                         
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE 500 MB                 
RIDGE MOVING IN AS WELL. THE 850 TEMPERATURES ON BOTH MODELS GET                
DOWN TO AROUND 10C WHICH WILL KEEP SFC TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE MET               
NUMBERS WERE COMING IN 10F COOLER THAN THE MAV, BUT THINK AT LEAST              
AT THIS TIME THAT ISN'T REALISTIC. SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER            
THAN CONTINUITY MAVS.                                                           
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH IS LESS THAN 20%              
AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE 850 MB RH LOWERS TO LESS              
THAN 40%. SO EXPECT THAT THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE EVENING AND             
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                              
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT AND THEY SET UP ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE                   
REGION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE                
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD IS HOW FAR SOUTH DOES ANY FRONT                  
PENETRATE. THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH ANY OF             
THEM AND AS THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS BEEN THAT AS ANY               
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IT HAS WASHED OUT AND LITTLE HAS                    
HAPPENED. SO THE FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE THIS...THURSDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SAG INTO E UPPER, WHICH WOULD GIVE                
SOME POPS, BUT WITH THE SFC LOW WAY OUT TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE               
LITTLE TO ANY MOISTURE TO DRAW ON AS WELL AS DYNAMIC FORCING. SO                
WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WON'T             
FORECAST IT UNTIL I "SEE THE WHITES OF ITS EYES." CONTINUITY FOR                
THURSDAY HAS SOME MINOR POPS WILL KEEP THOSE IN FOR NOW, BUT WILL               
KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY.                                                 
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY CONCERNS IS CONVECTION CHANCES/STRENGTH THROUGH MONDAY AND              
WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MON.                                     
HOT AND HUMID ATTM WITH TEMPS IN MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES                  
FLIRTING WITH 100F. A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN SOME CLOUD COVER AS CU                
BUBBLED UP EARLY IN AFTN AND EVEN WHERE BLYR WINDS WEAKLY CONVERGED             
OVR DICKINSON/IRON COUNTIES...THERE WERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT               
DEVELOPED. OUT WEST IN MN...AHEAD OF POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND                
FRONT...CONDITIONS ARE QUIET LIKELY DUE TO MID LEVEL CAPPING WITH H7            
TEMPS AOA +12C. MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION FIRING ALONG H85 FRONT OVR             
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO AHEAD OF PVA FM APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR NE ND            
PER WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS. TRENDS FM WV LOOP AND SHORT RANGE RUC             
INDICATE THAT SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THIS                   
EVENING...WHILE SECONDARY SHORTWAVES OVR MT/WY SLIDE ENE INTO N WI              
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
AN AVERAGE OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MUCAPE WILL REMAIN FROM             
AROUND 1000 J/KG OVR CNTRL UPR MI TO AOA 2000 J/KG OVR W ZONES. CINH            
VARIES BUT IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 J/KG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS             
LEAD (STRONGER) SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED H85 JET OF 40KT RIDES NE               
INTO ONTARIO...WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS OVERNIGHT FCST ON SECONDARY                  
SHORTWAVES. NAM/GFS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SLIGHTLY                      
INCREASING LLJ BEGINNING TO AFFECT SW ZONES AROUND 06Z THEN PUSHING             
E THROUGH 12Z. AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR                   
INCREASES WITH H5 WINDS NEAR 50KT JUST W OF IWD BY 06Z. BEST CHANCE             
OF STRONGER STORMS EXISTS IN SW ZONES OVERNIGHT. UNTIL                          
THEN...BESIDES THE VERY ISOLD (AND DIMINISHING) TS ROAMING DICKINSON            
AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES...THINK OVERALL CAPPING TO THE W AND S OF CWA            
WILL KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY. ONLY WENT AS HIGH AS 50 POPS FOR SW                
MAINLY BASED ON THE SPLITTING DYNAMICS AND THE QUICKLY EVADING DEEP             
MOISTURE BY LATE TONIGHT. MODEL QPF INDICATES THIS WITH PCPN FALLING            
DECREASING RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL UPR MI TOWARD 12Z WITH              
LITTLE REFORMING AFTER THAT INTO E ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT TS OVR            
E HALF ON MON AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH BUT CHANCES NOT VERY                      
IMPRESSIVE WITH OVERALL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING IN QUICKLY              
AS MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS.                                     
SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK SHOWS W HALF OF UPR MI WITHIN SLIGHT RISK FOR                 
TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALREADY MENTIONED AND INCREASING                
SHEAR DOES SUPPORT THAT. BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE OVERNIGHT             
AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NEARS AND SWRLY H85 WINDS HELP PUMP FEED OF              
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION (H85 THETA-E ADVECTION). BLYR                   
STABILIZATION WILL NOT BE VERY SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT...SO SOME                    
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE SFC ARE POSSIBLE AS DELTA THETA-E VALUES             
ARE AROUND 40K THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                               
ATTN WILL THEN TURN TO WINDS LATER ON MON INTO MON EVENING AS TROUGH            
AXIS PUSHES ACROSS. 30-35KT BLYR WINDS SHOULD MIX READILY TO THE SFC            
AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AND MAY NEED TO SEE AN ADVISORY HEADLINE ON THE              
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. INCREASED LAKE WINDS TO 30KT...JUST BLO GALE.               
ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH JUST BLO ADVY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS             
BTWN 30-35MPH. TROUGH AXIS AND H85 THERMAL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS LK              
SUPERIOR/NRN UPR MI INTO MON NIGHT. BOTH GFS/NAM INDICATE SLUG OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (STRATOCUMULUS BASED AROUND 2KFT) PRESENT IN NW              
ND ATTM WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL              
OCCUR OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS SO HAVE CUT POPS FARTHER INLAND. MAY SEE              
CLOUDS STICK AROUND EARLY TUE BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN AFTN AS            
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S MOST               
AREAS WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY AROUND +10C.                                          
EXTENDED (WED THROUGH SUN)...A COUPLE FRONTS TO CONTEND WITH IN THE             
PERIOD. PCPN CHANCES AND MAX TEMPERATURES ARE MAIN CONCERNS. ENOUGH             
HEIGHT FALLS STILL DEPICTED WED NIGHT INTO THU AM TO PUSH A WEAK                
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING...AND AM               
NOT CONVINCED THESE SHRA/TS WOULD GET INTO MY E ZONES AS PRIMARY                
SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ARE WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. 12Z              
RUN OF GFS BACK TO A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BUT WITH THE                 
OVERALL HIGHER HEIGHTS HOLDING OVR MUCH OF CONUS...THINK FRONT WILL             
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SE INTO UPR MI. AHEAD OF FRONT WED MAY BE VERY              
WARM AGAIN WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND H85 TEMPS NEAR +20C AGAIN                
(AROUND 90 FOR MAX TEMP). COOLER HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI...BUT              
LIKE YDY...NOT GOING WITH SUCH EXPANSIVE HIGH AS GFS INDICATES. SOME            
MINOR COOLING IS POSSIBLE FRI/SAT AS BLYR WINDS ARE MORE ERLY. KEPT             
POPS IN FOR SW ZONES AS WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO SW BEGINS TO LIFT              
TOWARD AREA SAT. UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR N THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS BY               
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN PUSH IT INTO              
UPR MI ON SUN...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AS WELL. HOWEVER...EXPERIMENTAL            
REFORECAST ENSEMBLE DATA ALONG WITH CANADIAN ENSEMBLES SHOW HIGHER              
PRESSURES OVR LK SUPERIOR REGION...KEEPING FRONT/WARMTH AND PCPN                
CHANCES TO THE S. GOING WITH A FRONTAL POSN CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE              
OVR N WI SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SW HALF OF CWA ON SUN. ALSO               
INCREASED TEMPS A BIT FROM SAT. IF FRONT LIFTS ON THROUGH...THE MAX             
TEMP GRIDS FOR SUN WILL BE TOO COOL.                                            
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY THIS EVENING                 
MIZ002>005-009>012-084.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
342 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH HAS BEEN LIFTING NE ACROSS SRN LOWER                 
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...TAKING MINOR H8-H5 -DIVQ AND BETTER                   
THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH IT...WITH SUBSIDENCE REGION MOVING IN BEHIND.            
SFC MAP AT 18Z SHOWS SHOWS MAIN SFC TROUGH FROM SRN LAKE HURON DOWN             
INTO THE DTX AREA. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP ACROSS             
NE LOWER...EAST OF INTERSTATE 75. THIS BEING PRODUCED BY LAKE BREEZE            
MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED IN THIS                     
ZONE...AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAD BEEN OCCURRING IN                  
CENTRAL ALCONA AND IOSCO COUNTIES. IN INTERIOR NRN LOWER...CLOUDS               
HAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN TO ERODE...BUT THERE TEMPERATURES WERE                  
TRYING TO RESPOND...BY SCRATCHING THEIR WAY INTO THE LOWER 80S.                 
FURTHER WEST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN...SLIGHTLY LOWER THETA-E AIR                  
RESIDED...AND EVEN WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER                
80S...CONVECTION HAS NOT RESPONDED.                                             
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY...CAN WE FIRE CONVECTION FURTHER               
WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING? FOG                  
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN PRECIP CHANCES AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER            
MONDAY WITH ADVANCING COOL FRONT FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.                 
RE-MODIFIED 12Z APX SOUNDING AND LATEST RUC40 SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA            
SUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS 1200-2000J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR THE                      
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS TEMPS CLIMB. AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE            
AND LOWER THETA-E AIR TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE W THOUGH...SO IT               
WILL BE A STRUGGLE. ACARS SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LESS CAPE...ON THE              
ORDER OF 1000J/KG OR LESS. LAPS SUGGESTING GREATER INSTABILITY                  
AROUND...BUT BASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...FEEL THAT ONLY                   
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP I-75 WESTWARD. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE              
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED NEAR LAKE                   
HURON...AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE SHOWN UP ON LATEST RADAR.               
WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR ALL OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN                
THROUGH 00Z...AS ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP.                
LOOK FOR PRECIP-FREE WX AFTER 00Z...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY                  
CLOUDY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY ABUNDANT AND HAZE WILL BE                  
COMMON INTO THE EVENING...EVEN UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (ESPECIALLY              
EAST). LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS UPSTREAM             
COOL FRONT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL                    
WISCONSIN. MAY NEED SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS                       
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.                                
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WEAK WAA WING DOES RIDE INTO EASTERN UPPER AND               
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER OVERNIGHT...AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT                 
SHOWERS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS PRECIP-FREE AS BETTER THETA-E POOLING            
ALONG THE FRONT BACK TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP SMALL 30% POPS FOR EARLY            
IN THE MORNING IN THIS AREA HOWEVER...BUT MAIN ACTION FROM THE FRONT            
DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING KICKING UP              
SBCAPES INTO THE 1800-2500J/KG SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CADILLAC TO                 
ALPENA. BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGESTING THAT MAX THETA-E...RIGHT                    
ENTRANCE REGION/UPPER LAYER DIVERGENCE OF 80-90KT JET RESULTING IN              
AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY. FREEZING LEVELS STILL UP AROUND 14KFT              
SO HAIL DOES NOT APPEAR TOO MUCH OF A THREAT...AND FAIRLY                       
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW SUGGESTING MORE OF A LINEAR EVOLUTION.                 
THUS...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SPC SLIGHT RISK SEEMS            
WARRANTED AS STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH BULK SHEAR            
VALUES AS HIGH AS 40KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORMS TO OUR SW                
ROBBING SOME OF THE MOISTURE FEED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT AS FOR               
NOW...THE SE CWA IS THE TARGET FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SW WIND FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND NRN LAKE              
HURON WILL BRING TOO STABLE OF CONDITIONS FOR DECENT INSTABILITY TO             
DEVELOP. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT DO NOT LOOK              
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO OVERRIDE THE MARINE INFLUENCE.   SMD                       
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS LOOKING            
MORE CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC THAN THE NAM, ESPECIALLY WITH TUESDAY.            
MONDAY NIGHT...AT 00Z THE 500 MB TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION            
WITH A PRETTY POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z              
AND WITH THE DIURNAL HEAT EXPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH                     
INSTABILITY (GFS SHOWING 0 TO -2C FOR LI)FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE               
EVENING. THE 850 TEMPERATURES AREN'T AS COLD AS ADVERTISED                      
YESTERDAY, BUT WITH MOISTURE NOT ONLY IN THE 850 LAYER, BUT IN THE              
700-500 LAYER AS WELL WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE WOULD BE A                        
CONTINUATION OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 06Z.                                         
TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN PRETTY QUICKLY WITH THE 500 MB                 
RIDGE MOVING IN AS WELL. THE 850 TEMPERATURES ON BOTH MODELS GET                
DOWN TO AROUND 10C WHICH WILL KEEP SFC TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE MET               
NUMBERS WERE COMING IN 10F COOLER THAN THE MAV, BUT THINK AT LEAST              
AT THIS TIME THAT ISN'T REALISTIC. SO HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER            
THAN CONTINUITY MAVS.                                                           
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH IS LESS THAN 20%              
AND WITH THE SFC RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE 850 MB RH LOWERS TO LESS              
THAN 40%. SO EXPECT THAT THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT FOR THE EVENING AND             
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                              
EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD                 
AGREEMENT AND THEY SET UP ZONAL FLOW TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE                   
REGION. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE                
MAIN PROBLEM DURING THE PERIOD IS HOW FAR SOUTH DOES ANY FRONT                  
PENETRATE. THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE WEAK WITH ANY OF             
THEM AND AS THE TREND OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO HAS BEEN THAT AS ANY               
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION IT HAS WASHED OUT AND LITTLE HAS                    
HAPPENED. SO THE FORECAST WILL LOOK LIKE THIS...THURSDAY THROUGH                
SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SAG INTO E UPPER, WHICH WOULD GIVE                
SOME POPS, BUT WITH THE SFC LOW WAY OUT TO THE WEST THERE WILL BE               
LITTLE TO ANY MOISTURE TO DRAW ON AS WELL AS DYNAMIC FORCING. SO                
WOULD EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT WON'T             
FORECAST IT UNTIL I "SEE THE WHITES OF ITS EYES." CONTINUITY FOR                
THURSDAY HAS SOME MINOR POPS WILL KEEP THOSE IN FOR NOW, BUT WILL               
KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DRY.                                                 
LUTZ                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
145 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE DENNIS SPINNING OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON WILL              
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND GET SWEPT OUT ON MONDAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD            
NEXT COLD FRONT.  IN THE MEANTIME...LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE STILL            
QUITE MOIST AND BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS DAYTIME HEATING                       
CONTINUES.  BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE            
LOCATED ACROSS THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY LEADING TO BETTER CHANCE            
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING AT MBS.  CHANCE                
DECREASES FURTHER SOUTH AT FNT...DTW AND DET AS SURFACE RIDGE AND NO            
UPPER SUPPORT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. WILL NEED SOME TYPE OF                     
SURFACE BOUNDARY...LAKE BREEZE...OUTFLOW ETC TO GET CONVECTION                  
FIRED. THINKING BEST CHANCE AT OR NEAR TERMINAL SITES WILL BE THE               
EVENING TIME FRAME.                                                             
AFTER...SKIES CLEAR AND WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING AROUND 70                     
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP.  WITH NOT AS MUCH WIDESPREAD RAIN            
TODAY AND A BIT MORE OF A GRADIENT...DONT EXPECT FOG TO GET QUITE AS            
DENSE AS LAST NIGHT.                                                            
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP DURING MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF APPROACHING              
COLD FRONT.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.             
VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA PRODUCING MAINLY               
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE              
NEAR SURFACE LOW ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE THUMB.                                 
LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO BE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON. DTX               
SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A COOLER POCKET OF AIR BELOW 700 MB.  WILL              
LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THIS MIXING OF COOLER AIR.                   
STIL...84/72 GIVES CAPE NEAR 3K JOULES WITH NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  JUICY       
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PROBLEM IS LOOKING FOR A                 
TRIGGER.  MID LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BASICALLY NEUTRAL            
TO NEGATIVE.  WILL HAVE TO RELY ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF SOME                  
SORT.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN              
LOWER.  RUC/ETA/NGM SHOW A DIFFUSED SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON.             
WILL LOWER POPS SOUTH AND BASICALLY GO WITH CHANCE.  WILL BUMP UP               
POPS IN THE THUMB WHERE BEST SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005)                         
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE BIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FINAL DEPARTURE OF            
TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES, BUT NOT BEFORE                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.                    
THE COMBINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL FIELDS SHOW A MORE               
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER ILLINOIS MOVING TOWARD              
SE MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                  
ALREADY IN PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AT ANY                
GIVEN TIME TODAY TRENDING TOWARD NUMEROUS COVERAGE WITH A BOOST FROM            
DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE          
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION FROM               
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SANDUSKY TO                  
HOWELL. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE TRI CITIES               
AND REMAINDER OF THE THUMB WITH LESS FAVORABLE SURFACE FOCUSING                 
MECHANISMS.                                                                     
SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW DAYTIME ACTIVITY TO               
TRAIL INTO TONIGHT, AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET, THEN WE CAN FEEL PRETTY              
GOOD ABOUT KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES INTO              
THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL HELP             
ACCOMPLISH THIS.                                                                
INCREASING GRADIENT WIND WILL HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT AND                
KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS              
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWER 70S TONIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE                    
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MONDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN EARLY MONDAY...AS MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES DECREASE AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE                   
ADVECTING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO                
SOAR TOWARD 90 DEGREES. TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT                
FROM DENNIS LEFT OVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE              
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND 850 DEW POINTS AROUND 15C. THIS                 
SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND MIXED             
LAYER CAPES IN THE 2000S. ALSO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE                    
SOUNDINGS BESIDE A WARM LAYER FROM ABOUT 650 TO 500 MBS. WHILE THE              
MAIN ENERGY WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN...THERE SHOULD BE A VORT LOBE OFF OF THE SHORTWAVE TO                  
ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 80 KT            
JET. COMBINE THIS WILL GOOD CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM           
850 MB AND BELOW ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL                     
TROF/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME SEVERE               
WEATHER. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.             
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY A WIND THREAT WITH A                
GOOD MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...AND WITH              
AN INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AS 850 WINDS INCREASE TO                
25-30 KTS AND 500 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. STILL CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZEROS...A LOT              
OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 500 MBS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY             
BE POSSIBLE TOO GIVEN PW/S AROUND 1.6...HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW              
LEVELS...K INDEX IN THE 30S...AND INITIAL STORM MOVEMENT ONLY AROUND            
20KTS.                                                                          
AS MENTIONED ABOVE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THAT INCLUDES THE               
TIMING OF THE FRONT. SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THERE            
WILL BE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY                
NIGHT. THEN FOR TUESDAY...WILL GO WITH SOME BKN CU FOR THE I 69                 
CORRIDOR WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF AND WEAK CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. CU           
SCHEME ALSO SUGGEST THIS TOO.                                                   
TEMPS THRU TUESDAY A BLEND OF THE MOS NUMBERS. ON MONDAY TIMING OF              
THE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF WILL DICTATE HOW HIGH             
THE TEMPS GET. THEN ON TUESDAY...GFS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES C WARMER            
THAN THE ETA AT 850. SO WENT WITH THE BLEND OF TEMPS THERE TOO.                 
BEYOND TUESDAY...KEPT WEDNESDAY UNCHANGED. ADDED A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A                  
RIPPLE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BIG RIDGE. GFS IS THE MOST              
AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE DGEX...WRFXX AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF                  
INDICATE DECENT SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD               
FRONT. WILL GO WITH THE DGEX/WRFXX IDEA...WHICH WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH             
REASON TO COOL FRIDAY DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. BUT                
THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL LEAVE                   
SATURDAY UNCHANGED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DRC                                                                    
AVIATION...DRC                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB TROF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.             
VORT MAX CURRENTLY ROTATING NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA PRODUCING MAINLY               
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.  LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE              
NEAR SURFACE LOW ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE THUMB.                                 
LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO BE MOIST THIS AFTERNOON. DTX               
SOUNDING SHOWS A BIT OF A COOLER POCKET OF AIR BELOW 700 MB.  WILL              
LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THIS MIXING OF COOLER AIR.                   
STIL...84/72 GIVES CAPE NEAR 3K JOULES WITH NO CAP THIS AFTERNOON.  JUICY       
ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PROBLEM IS LOOKING FOR A                 
TRIGGER.  MID LEVEL FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BASICALLY NEUTRAL            
TO NEGATIVE.  WILL HAVE TO RELY ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF SOME                  
SORT.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN              
LOWER.  RUC/ETA/NGM SHOW A DIFFUSED SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON.             
WILL LOWER POPS SOUTH AND BASICALLY GO WITH CHANCE.  WILL BUMP UP               
POPS IN THE THUMB WHERE BEST SURFACE AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SHALLOW IFR FOG WILL LIFT QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LEAVE                  
SCATTERED CU AND AC IN ITS PLACE AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST                
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.                                    
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE DETROIT                     
TERMINAL SITES. IT IS HERE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BEST COMBINE                  
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND HUMIDITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE               
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT.                
A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT                
AND CAUSE AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND IN OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP FOG              
TO A MINIMUM THROUGH SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 337 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005)                         
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
THE BIG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FINAL DEPARTURE OF            
TROPICAL REMNANTS FROM THE THE GREAT LAKES, BUT NOT BEFORE                      
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.                    
THE COMBINATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL FIELDS SHOW A MORE               
CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER ILLINOIS MOVING TOWARD              
SE MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE                  
ALREADY IN PLACE TO KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING AT ANY                
GIVEN TIME TODAY TRENDING TOWARD NUMEROUS COVERAGE WITH A BOOST FROM            
DAYTIME HEATING OVER SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE          
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION FROM               
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SANDUSKY TO                  
HOWELL. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED AROUND THE TRI CITIES               
AND REMAINDER OF THE THUMB WITH LESS FAVORABLE SURFACE FOCUSING                 
MECHANISMS.                                                                     
SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW DAYTIME ACTIVITY TO               
TRAIL INTO TONIGHT, AT LEAST UNTIL SUNSET, THEN WE CAN FEEL PRETTY              
GOOD ABOUT KEEPING THINGS DRY OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE SETTLES INTO              
THE AREA. SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WILL HELP             
ACCOMPLISH THIS.                                                                
INCREASING GRADIENT WIND WILL HELP KEEP FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT AND                
KEEP LOW TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. NO COMPLAINTS WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS              
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS TODAY AND LOWER 70S TONIGHT.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...CONCERN FOR MONDAY WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE                    
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MONDAY THROUGH                   
WEDNESDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN EARLY MONDAY...AS MOISTURE                   
CONTINUES DECREASE AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE                   
ADVECTING BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO                
SOAR TOWARD 90 DEGREES. TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT                
FROM DENNIS LEFT OVERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH SURFACE              
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND 850 DEW POINTS AROUND 15C. THIS                 
SHOULD LEAD TO SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND MIXED             
LAYER CAPES IN THE 2000S. ALSO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES IN THE                    
SOUNDINGS BESIDE A WARM LAYER FROM ABOUT 650 TO 500 MBS. WHILE THE              
MAIN ENERGY WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN...THERE SHOULD BE A VORT LOBE OFF OF THE SHORTWAVE TO                  
ROTATE THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 80 KT            
JET. COMBINE THIS WILL GOOD CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM           
850 MB AND BELOW ALONG BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL                     
TROF/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LOOKS TO BE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME SEVERE               
WEATHER. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.             
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY A WIND THREAT WITH A                
GOOD MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA...AND WITH              
AN INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AS 850 WINDS INCREASE TO                
25-30 KTS AND 500 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. STILL CANNOT RULE             
OUT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH LOWERING WET BULB ZEROS...A LOT              
OF CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 500 MBS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY             
BE POSSIBLE TOO GIVEN PW/S AROUND 1.6...HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW              
LEVELS...K INDEX IN THE 30S...AND INITIAL STORM MOVEMENT ONLY AROUND            
20KTS.                                                                          
AS MENTIONED ABOVE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THAT INCLUDES THE               
TIMING OF THE FRONT. SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THERE            
WILL BE DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MONDAY                
NIGHT. THEN FOR TUESDAY...WILL GO WITH SOME BKN CU FOR THE I 69                 
CORRIDOR WITH THE 850 THERMAL TROF AND WEAK CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW. CU           
SCHEME ALSO SUGGEST THIS TOO.                                                   
TEMPS THRU TUESDAY A BLEND OF THE MOS NUMBERS. ON MONDAY TIMING OF              
THE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF WILL DICTATE HOW HIGH             
THE TEMPS GET. THEN ON TUESDAY...GFS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES C WARMER            
THAN THE ETA AT 850. SO WENT WITH THE BLEND OF TEMPS THERE TOO.                 
BEYOND TUESDAY...KEPT WEDNESDAY UNCHANGED. ADDED A CHANCE OF                    
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY. ALL THE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A                  
RIPPLE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE BIG RIDGE. GFS IS THE MOST              
AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE DGEX...WRFXX AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF                  
INDICATE DECENT SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD               
FRONT. WILL GO WITH THE DGEX/WRFXX IDEA...WHICH WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH             
REASON TO COOL FRIDAY DOWN A BIT BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. BUT                
THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL LEAVE                   
SATURDAY UNCHANGED.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...DRC                                                                    
AVIATION...BT                                                                   
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM....RBP                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
315 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.                 
THE 12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...AND THERE ARE NO               
MAJOR DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARD TO THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW                
DAYS. WILL UTILIZE ETA12/RUC FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM DETAILS...              
AND THEN SWITCH TO A NAM/GFS BLEND.                                             
STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL BANDS            
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AN ANALYSIS OF                   
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THE CAP SHOULD BREAK IN THE                   
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEFORE 5 PM. AS THE CAP BREAKS...THEY COULD               
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. WEAK CAP HAS BEEN THE LIMITING FACTOR SO                 
FAR...BUT STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...                  
AND MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK THE CAP. IN ADDITION...               
THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND                     
DRYING FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE DAKOTAS WILL INCREASE             
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE                
FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO              
REALIZE BETTER EFFECTIVE SHEAR.                                                 
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH               
WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS IN THE THERMAL TROUGH AND COLD AIR BEHIND                   
THE FRONT. LOOKS QUITE COOL MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.                
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN             
AS THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH ARRIVES AGAIN DURING THE WEEK.                
TEMPS SHOULD OVERALL BE IN THE 80S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE ONLY              
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW 60S FOR HIGHS UP NORTH -               
AND 70S IN THE SOUTH. MOS TEMPS ARE REASONABLY GOOD...BUT IN THE                
FARTHER PERIODS...HAVE WENT WITH A WARMER THAN MEX FORECAST...GIVEN             
TIME OF YEAR AND THE WAY IT HAS BEEN HANDLING TEMPS LATELY.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST THIS             
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD                
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH...PRODUCING MVFR OR LOCALIZED IFR                     
CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG              
WINDS. AFTER THE FRONT EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL               
TURN OUT OF THE WEST. THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS                
LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES            
ACROSS THE AREA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.              
&&                                                                              
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
DAP/BERDES                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCO                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1035 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.  RADAR NOT SHOWING MUCH AT             
THIS TIME, BUT SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED COVERAGE ACROSS              
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE               
AFTERNOON. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINING HIGH, AND RUC AND NAM              
SHOWING WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH, WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS             
FOR THE MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY                  
AS THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY TO OUR WEST.                 
IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION AND TIMING ANY                    
CONVECTION IN THIS TROPICAL AIRMASS...SO WILL JUST BLANKET THE AREA             
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL               
RESULT IN RELATIVELY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA                       
TODAY...WITH READINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID               
80S.                                                                            
THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT.              
SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE IN                 
CHANCE POPS.                                                                    
MONDAY WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW                  
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ONE OF THE MORE                   
UNCOMFORTABLE DAYS THAT WE WILL SEE DURING THIS HEAT SPELL. THE ONE             
HOPE OF RELIEF ON MONDAY WILL COME FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS              
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A              
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK                
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND THE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE WILL               
SERVE AS POTENTIAL FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION            
AS CAPES RISE TO ABOUT 2000 J/KG.                                               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED MONDAY NIGHT             
AS THE MIDWEST COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN NEW YORK. ADDITIONAL               
LIFT IN THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE             
CONVECTION.                                                                     
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST                  
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE. A                    
NORTHWEST FLOW OF REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO            
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                      
PERIOD WILL START WITH SOME VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WITH FULL SUN AND             
LOW HUMIDITY ON WED AS HIGH CRESTS OVER US. 850'S REBOUND TO 14C SO             
WE SHOULD EASILY SEE U70S/L80S. THURSDAY TURNS WARMER BUT STILL                 
DRY...WILL FOLLOW HPC TEMPERATURES (L80S) BUT SUSPECT WE WILL NEED              
TO GO HIGHER AS WE GET CLOSER. MODELS DIVERGE A BIT TOWARD WEEK'S               
END. GFS PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH              
COOLER DRIER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND. HPC...FAVORING UKMET AND                     
ECMWF...HOLDS ONTO RIDGE LONGER AND WASHES FRONT OUT NEAR OR JUST               
NORTH OF US ON FRI WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK FOR MORE HEAT NEXT                  
WEEKEND.                                                                        
WILL FOLLOW HPC AND INTRODUCE 30 POPS ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY...THEN               
LOWER TO 20 POP SATURDAY.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STEAMY TROPICAL AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MVFR            
VSBYS IN HAZE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING RATHER                     
WIDESPREAD. WILL USE MODERATE RAIN AS AN AVERAGE WITHIN THE STORMS              
(TSRA) DUE TO THE VERY HIGH (2") PRECIPITABLE WATER. BY THE                     
WAY...THESE VALUES ARE 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.                 
WHILE THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP AT ANY TIME WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE                   
AIRMASS...THEY WILL MOST LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT WHICH               
TIME THEY WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO DEVELOP QUITE RAPIDLY.                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET                
THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH MFVR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND                   
CONTINUED 3-5SM IN HZ/BR ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.                 
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...APB                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TJP                                                                
LONG TERM...SM                                                                  
AVIATION...RSH                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1007 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
PRIMARY STORY OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.                   
READINGS ALREADY RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE THE VALUES OF SATURDAY...             
AND WITH AMPLE MORNING SUN IN MOST PLACES OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP A             
DEGREE OR SO THIS AFTERNOON VERSUS THE ONGOING FORECAST.  FIRST                 
GLANCE AT THE RUC AROUND 12Z SHOWED A FORECAST OF A RELATIVE MIN OF             
DEW POINTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SINCE AT            
THAT TIME THE RUC FORECAST WAS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH                    
CONDITIONS VIA OBS AND MSAS/LAPS THAN THE ETA12...FELT THE RUC HAD A            
BETTER HANDLE ON DEW POINTS...AND THE FORECAST OF HEAT INDICES OF               
AROUND 100 TO 105...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY TOUCHING 105 TOWARD THE COASTAL            
PLAIN...WAS SOUND.  VERY LATEST RUC HAS DONE A COMPLETE CHANGE AND              
HAS DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 70S WHICH IS A STRONG DEPARTURE             
FROM THE EARLIER LOOK AND WAY HIGHER THAN EVEN THE NORMALLY HIGH                
ETA.  FOR NOW...BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE VERY LATEST RUC ALSO                 
SHOWS A STRONG DEPARTURE FROM MSAS/LAPS ANALYSES...WILL CONTINUE THE            
ONGOING FORECAST OF HEAT INDICES FROM AROUND 100 TO 105 AND WILL                
UPDATE THE SPS ACCORDINGLY.  MAY NEED A QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON             
IF THE RUC WOULD SOMEHOW VERIFY...BUT AT THIS POINT THE CONFIDENCE              
IN THAT SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH.                                                   
WEAK UPPER WAVE ON WATER VAPOR MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS                   
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOULD PLOD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS            
AFTERNOON.  EARLIER RUC AND ETA12 BOTH FORECAST GOOD SUBSIDENCE OVER            
THE FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK LIFT DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD               
21Z.  GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH              
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AT 12Z               
WHICH SHOULD LINGER DURING THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS               
COULD OCCUR.  OVER THE WEST...CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS THERE TO                 
ISOLATED BUT WINDS MORE WESTERLY AT 850MB...COMBINED WITH A LITTLE              
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON               
THERE DUE TO THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER PATTERN ON VISIBLE...MAKES IT              
NECESSARY TO CONTINUE SCATTERED POPS.                                           
ALL OF THIS SAID...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR               
THE AFTERNOON.  THANKS TO ADJACENT OFFICES FOR THE GOOD                         
COLLABORATION THIS MORNING.  GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATES                
SHOULD BE OUT BY 1030 AM.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 300 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ALOFT                 
MEANS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS             
MEANS A CONTINUATION OF WARM...HUMID AIR OVER CWA WITH ISOLATED                 
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS MAY BE                   
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 90              
TO 95 AND LOWS 70 TO 75.                                                        
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
LEE TROUGH OR BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT REMAINS OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE            
EXTENDED PERIOD. SO LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL             
CONTINUE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS HIGHS WILL BE 90 TO 95.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH RAIN CHANCES LOW...PRECIPITATION OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST.                
WITH LITTLE RAIN SATURDAY AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS STILL A              
GOOD FIVE DEGREES OR MORE IN THE AREA...HAVE OMITTED FOG AND STRATUS            
FROM THE FORECAST. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE STRATUS MIGHT FORM             
BUT WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DJF                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION......UPDATED......                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
845 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
WILL UPDATE PACKAGE FOR SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. WEAK S/W              
MAY OF ENHANCED EARLIER CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF PRODUCING            
A LINE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CORES STILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TODAY              
THAN YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY GENERAL COVERAGE SHRINKING. ONE LAST CELL             
WITH A SLIGHT BIT OF TRAINING IN NORTHERN BUTLER. WILL CONTINUE TO              
WATCH. WITH TDS STILL VERY HIGH WILL CONTINUT TO CARRY MENTION OF               
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
RECENT SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH                       
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2.0 INCHES. RECENT RADAR               
DATA CONFIRMS RUC INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE BAND OF SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THERE CAN BE ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH             
MIGRATES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW A                  
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH             
ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE.                                                                        
DUE TO THE HIGH WATER CONTENT...THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY             
RAINFALL RATES...BUT MOST SHOULD BE OF SUFFICIENT SPEED TO AVOID                
RAINFALLS OVER 2.5 INCHES WHICH ARE NEEDED FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.               
SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY            
MONDAY...AS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR THEN. THE              
STORMS WILL HAVE TAP TO MORE SHEAR TUESDAY...BUT THE MIDDAY PASSAGE             
MAY LIMIT SURFACE-HEATING GENERATED INSTABILITY.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
GFS AND NAM SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR            
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN              
THIS FLOW...COUPLED WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE                
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW                
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT RIDGING OVER              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN               
NORMAL AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS VALUES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SAME PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 70               
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING              
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT IFR              
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...               
FORECAST BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN              
CUMULUS SCATTERING OUT WITH CIRRUS ABOVE. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO              
MVFR AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HAZE. BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z MONDAY...                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS                 
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
RECENT SATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE                  
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY WITH                       
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2.0 INCHES. RECENT RADAR               
DATA CONFIRMS RUC INDICATIONS THAT AT LEAST ONE BAND OF SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE              
THIS AFTERNOON. GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATE THERE CAN BE ANOTHER                
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH             
MIGRATES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW A                  
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH             
ANOTHER BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE.                                                                        
DUE TO THE HIGH WATER CONTENT...THE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY             
RAINFALL RATES...BUT MOST SHOULD BE OF SUFFICIENT SPEED TO AVOID                
RAINFALLS OVER 2.5 INCHES WHICH ARE NEEDED FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.               
SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK AREA CLOSER TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY            
MONDAY...AS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR THEN. THE              
STORMS WILL HAVE TAP TO MORE SHEAR TUESDAY...BUT THE MIDDAY PASSAGE             
MAY LIMIT SURFACE-HEATING GENERATED INSTABILITY.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                  
GFS AND NAM SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR            
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN              
THIS FLOW...COUPLED WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE                
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS INDICATES THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW                
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT RIDGING OVER              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN               
NORMAL AS INDICATED BY GFS MOS VALUES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SAME PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING AROUND 70               
AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING              
THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT IFR              
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...               
FORECAST BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN              
CUMULUS SCATTERING OUT WITH CIRRUS ABOVE. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO              
MVFR AT TIMES IN AREAS OF HAZE. BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z MONDAY...                   
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR IN AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS                 
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1106 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM UPDATE (REST OF TODAY)...                                           
SHOWERS THIS MORNING SEEM TO BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD VS. MORE NORTHWARD         
AS ON PREV DAYS. SEEMS TO BE SIGNALLING THAT THE UPPER TROF IS                  
MOVING MORE OFF TO OUR NW AND WE ARE ATTAINING MORE OF A BROAD                  
SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ETA/GFS AND RUC ALL SUGGEST WE ACTUALLY WILL SEE               
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASS ALOFT TODAY...MAYBE A SIGN THAT                     
CONVECTION MIGHT NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. STILL WITH                  
PWATS NEAR 2"...SOME 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL...NOT MUCH LIFT                   
NEEDED TO MAKE CONVECTION SO WILL STICK WITH THE FORECAST FOR                   
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. AS WITH PREV                      
DAYS...WITH DEEP MOISTURE...ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL              
TO MAKE FOR SOME REAL TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. SOME SOUTHERN AREAS                   
ESPECIALLY SAW LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS YESTERDAY...HAVE TO WEARY FOR              
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.                                                          
LA CORTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 242 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
JUICY...TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PENN THROUGH                
MIDDAY TUESDAY. A SIMILAR SETUP TO SATURDAY WITH RESPECT TO AREAS OF            
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE FORCING AND QPF AMOUNTS. PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES WILL STAY VERY HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT (NEARLY 2 INCHES OR            
+2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS) BEFORE VEERING FLOW TO THE WEST SEVERAL               
KFT ABOVE GROUND WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWATS.                      
THE FOCUS OF HEAVIER RAIN TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND              
ECENT MTNS (ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A KHGR-KIPT LINE) WHERE                    
MODERATELY STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL BE SUPERIMPOSED WITH THE                 
GREATEST LLVL THETA-E CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 19Z-04Z. SECONDARY PRECIP             
MAX MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NW MTNS INVOF OF AN UPPER VORT MAX.                    
THE "MINOR" NEGATING FACTORS WILL BE A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE LAPSE               
RATE AT MID LEVELS (700-500 MB)...AND THE PRESENCE OF A UPPER VORT              
MIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS BETWEEN 18-21Z.                                     
ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL EXISTS TODAY FOR FAIRLY LOCALIZED FLOODING             
OF SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FROM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF               
2-3 INCHES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THESE AMOUNTS OF RAIN             
CAN EASILY EXCEED 1 THROUGH 6 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS MUCH             
OF OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND              
14 KFT AGL AND WEAK SHEAR PROFILES WILL POINT TWD GULLY WASHING                 
PULSE STORMS AFTER THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA            
REACHED.                                                                        
A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND TO CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN BY 04-05Z                  
MONDAY...WITH JUST MAINLY SCTD SHRA LATE AT NIGHT.                              
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...                      
INCREASING 850 MB WSW FLOW AND AN UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST                  
ACROSS THE CWA WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY             
EVENING TSRA (POSSIBLY CONTAINING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS (AT LEAST                
ACROSS THE WEST) AS WET BULB ZERO LEVELS DROP A BIT AND CAPES VIA               
THE SREF PEAK AT 2000-2500 J/KG BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUE AS               
TEMPS CLIMB TO THE M/U80S...TO LOWER 90S IN THE LWR SUSQ.                       
THE LAST GASP OF OUR CURRENT TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL BE SWEPT EAST BY             
A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE THE THREAT OF SVR TSRA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE             
SUSQ VALLEY).                                                                   
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN               
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE                 
HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR WED AND THURSDAY.                 
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE                    
THURSDAY...SIGNALING A DISTINCT CHANGE TO A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT AS              
THE PRIMARY UPR JET SHIFTS SOUTH. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS                 
INDICATE EVEN COOLER TEMPS AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WATER FOR FRIDAY             
AND SATURDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN               
CANADA TO THE OHIO VALLEY.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BUT SOME VRF AND MVFR                     
CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL PA. MOST AREAS IN MVFR AND IFR NEAR THE MOST              
INTENSE STORMS. LOWER VISIBILITIES IN OTHER AREAS DUE TO FOG.  THESE            
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IPT WILL CONTINUE            
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP WORKS THOUGH                  
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER SUSQ SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN                 
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING                  
TOWARDS LOWER SUSQ SHOULD PASS JUST NORTH OF MDT BUT IN VICINITY.               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JST AND AOO WILL COME TO AN END IN               
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.             
WITH CURRENT AIR MASS EXPECT A REPEAT OF CONDITIONS YESTERDAY WITH              
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING MORE MVFR/IFR                     
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING INCLUDE A TEMPERATURE               
INCREASE OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES OVER FAR EASTERN CWA WHERE INSOLATION                
WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT BEFORE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STARTS COOLING            
THINGS OFF. RUC AND 12Z HI-RES NAM SUPPORT WATER VAPOR WITH RESPECT             
TO TIMING OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS CWA TODAY. ISOLATED              
SHOWERS WERE DEPICTED IN 88D DATA OVER FAR WESTERN CWA. MID-LEVEL               
TEMPS COOL ENOUGH AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TO SUPPORT THE                
INSERTION OF A SLT CHANCE POP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA DURING             
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE WINDY ON EITHER SIDE OF THE                     
FRONT...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTINESS            
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO                    
ADVISORY PLANNED AT THIS TIME.     DORN                                         
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
NUMEROUS LITTLE CHALLENGES TO KEEP TRACK OF THIS MORNING. ALL                   
DEALING WITH PCPN CHCS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.                                   
GFS WANTS TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF...CLEARING THE CWA             
MORE TOWARD 03Z. HOWEVER...NAM AND GFS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
ON COLD FRONT EXITING ERN CWA BY 18Z TAFTN. TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE               
TOASTY ACROSS THE EAST WITH STRONG WAA AND GOOD MIXING WINDS. SOME              
LEFT OVER ACCAS ACROSS THE WRN CWA MAY DEVELOP INTO ELEVATED                    
CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. WITH                
QUICK EROSION TO 7H CAP THIS AFTN...STILL FEEL THAT SLGT CHC TSRA               
ACROSS ERN CWA LATE MORNING/AFTN STILL JUSTIFIED. STRONG THETA-E                
DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER WITH RAPID DRYING IN THE LAYERS. THE GFS IS A              
BIT STRONGER WITH 7H TROWAL FEATURE ACROSS THE EXTREME NERN CWA BY              
12Z MONDAY WITH BACKDOOR 85H TROF DROPPING THROUGH. THE NAM DOESN'T             
HAVE AS STRONG TROWAL FEATURE...BUT CONTS TO ADVERTISE THE PSBLTY OF            
LOW CLOUDS STREAMING DOWN RRV MONDAY MORNING. HAVE CONT TO SHOW                 
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR NERN CWA TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR THIS              
AREA BUT LEFT PCPN MENTION OUT.                                                 
MONDAY WILL BE PLEASANT DAY AS WEAK CAA TAKES OVER CWA. WINDS WILL              
HAVE DIED DOWN AND EXPECT MOSUNNY SKIES. SOME CAA CU MAY FORM ACROSS            
THE EAST...BUT SHOULDN'T IMPEDE HEATING.                                        
ONE CONCERN POPS UP MONDAY NIGHT AS WAA RETURNS BACK TO CWA. 7H                 
THETA-E RIDGE POPS BACK UP WITH ADVANCING MINOR 7H TROF. THERE IS               
SOME OMEGA NOTED IN THE NAM AND GFS. LOLVL JET DOESN'T GET INTO PLAY            
UNTIL NEAR 12Z TUESDAY AND 85H-7H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS MEAGER AT             
BEST. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDITION OF PCPN...BUT IT BEARS                  
WATCHING.                                                                       
NEXT CHC OF PCPN OCCURS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT TIME AS NEXT COLD                 
FRONT IS POISED TO PASS THROUGH. ANOTHER 7H THETA-E RIDGE NOSES UP              
WITH BETTER LOLVL DYNAMICS PRESENT. STRONG 7H WAVE ALSO PASSES                  
THROUGH. HOWEVER...7H TEMPS ALSO INCREASE TO +12 OR HIGHER ACROSS               
ERN CWA SO AM GOING TO BANK ON THE CAP TO KEEP THINGS DRY.                      
AGAIN...IT WILL BEAR WATCHING TO SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT.                          
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                         
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DOING OK ESPECIALLY AS THEY PERTAIN TO THIS                 
AREA.  THIS AREA STARTS THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW             
ALOFT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AT THE               
SURFACE.  FIRST GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SATURDAY MORNING            
AS A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH AHEAD OF AN UPPER             
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  MODEL PROG SOUNDINGS AT                
THIS TIME DEPICT AN H7 TEMPERATURE OF +16C WHICH IS USUALLY                     
SUFFICIENT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION HERE.  SO HAVE KEPT THE DRY                    
FORECAST GOING AND HAVE MADE SEVERAL MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO                       
TEMPERATURE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HINTZ/KEEFE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
248 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENTLY/TODAY...WATER VAPOR AND RUC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOW ZONE             
OF CONFLUENT FLOW JUST TO OUR EAST...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM EMILY.                       
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BORNE OUT BY IR SATELLITE AND RADAR                
WHICH ONLY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC...EVEN LESS                  
ACTIVITY THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  WILL HOLD OUT A 20 POP FOR EASTERLY                
FLOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND 30 POPS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON                
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.  WOULD EXPECT LESS                   
COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY OVERALL.                                                
TONIGHT...WITH SPARSE ATLANTIC SHOWER ACTIVITY...SHOULD BE ANOTHER              
WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW KEEPING COASTAL TEMPS             
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.                                                  
TUE-THU...AXIS OF THE SEMI-PERMANENT ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN                 
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A CONTINUATION OF THE            
ONSHORE FLOW WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES FIRST ALONG THE COAST IN THE                
MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SOME RECOVERY              
IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL RUN WITH POPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW              
CLIMO. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM IN THE PROXIMITY OF            
THE RIDGE. GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN AND            
LIGHTNING THOUGH AN ISOLATED CELL PRODUCING SMALL HAIL OR STRONG                
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.                                  
FRI-SAT...GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A WEAK                  
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...                
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WITH THIS                   
FEATURE WILL INITIALLY MOVE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MEANWHILE                 
...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE               
CENTRAL COUNTIES. LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE                
COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES NORTH OF THE LAKE FRI.                   
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE                        
SAT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WETTER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND.                      
SUN...DRY BUBBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE                
CARIBBEAN NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE            
FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. INSTEAD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN               
NESTLED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND ADDITIONAL DEEP LAYER             
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE                   
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. END RESULT WILL BE MORE CLOUDS THAN             
SUN WITH RAIN CHANCES ABOVE CLIMO.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY WINDS HAVE BEEN 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL                 
HOURS SO THERE IS A LITTLE MORE WIND CHOP THIS MORNING.  EXPECT SOME            
PERIODS BELOW 10 KNOTS...BUT WILL GO WITH 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH                   
TONIGHT AS GFS IS SHOWING SURFACE-850 MB WINDS IN THAT RANGE OR                 
SLIGHTLY HIGHER.                                                                
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...               
ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT CAN BE EXPECTED                   
TUE-FRI.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER ALONG THE COAST                  
MAINLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS.  MAIN              
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEST OF THE I-4               
CORRIDOR ONCE AGAIN.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  89  77  90  75 /  20  10  30  10                                           
MCO  93  77  93  75 /  30  10  40  20                                           
MLB  89  79  89  77 /  20  10  30  10                                           
VRB  89  78  90  77 /  20  20  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT-TERM...LASCODY                                                            
LONG-TERM...HIRSCH                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
216 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N ATLANTIC WWD                  
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THIS RIDGE IS STEERING POWERFUL HURRICANE EMILY            
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTER PASSED                
VERY CLOSE TO COZUMEL. CURRENTLY, THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST N              
OF THE AREA. THE E COAST SEA BREEZE (ECSB) CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE             
IMAGERY CROSSING THE NE GULF WATERS. AREA RADARS SHOW PERSISTENT                
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW GA IN AN AREA OF CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW.               
STORMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OUT IN THE APALACHEE BAY, WHICH IS MORE              
TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED.                                                
THE NAM AND GFS ARE AT ODDS OVER THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE              
AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA,             
WITH SE TO E FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE NAM KEEPS THE AXIS RIGHT OVER            
THE AREA, WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 1000-700 MB LAYER. THIS             
DIFFERENCE IMPACTS THE WAY THE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP               
EACH DAY. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT THE GFS PATTERN WOULD RESULT             
IN LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN THE ETA, AND THE MOS REFLECTS                 
THIS. THE MAV POPS ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE MET, THE LATTER              
OF WHICH HAS LIKELY POPS EACH OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS. WE GENERALLY              
FAVORED THE GFS WITH THE WIND FORECAST, BUT BLENDED THE TWO MODELS              
FOR POPS AND TEMPS. HOWEVER, FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, WE USED A                   
COMBINATION OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.                                     
.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN.                                             
NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING, SO A PERSISTENCE                
FORECAST WOULD BE A GOOD ONE. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WE FOLLOWED THE RUC AND THEN THE GFS FOR THE WIND FORECAST.           
THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER E TO ESE FLOW FOR THE NEXT                   
SEVERAL DAYS. WE INCREASE WINDS A BIT EACH NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE             
NOCTURNAL SURGE WE GENERALLY SEE IN ELY FLOW, PARTLY DUE TO THE ECSB.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING              
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH             
THEY WILL MISS OUR TAF SITES. WE ARE FORECASTING VFR CONDITIONS                 
TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT VALDOSTA WHERE THE NEARBY SWAMP MAY CONTRIBUTE               
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME MVFR BR TO DEVELOP NEAR                      
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, THE EASTERLY FLOW PRESENTLY OBSERVED IN THE                
LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG. VFR                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES MONDAY. THERE WILL BE                  
SCATTERED CB, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM AT EACH TAF SITE            
IS ONLY 30-40 PERCENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD: THE FLINT,                   
APALACHICOLA, OCHLOCKONEE, ST. MARK'S AND AUCILLA. SEE OUR AHPS WEB             
PAGES (BELOW) FOR DETAILS. USE ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS.                          
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/AHPS.CGI?TAE                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  94 74 94 74 / 40 20 40 20                                          
PANAMA CITY  92 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 20                                          
DOTHAN       93 74 93 74 / 30 30 40 20                                          
ALBANY       95 76 94 74 / 30 30 40 20                                          
VALDOSTA     94 73 94 73 / 30 20 40 20                                          
CROSS CITY   94 73 93 72 / 40 20 40 20                                          
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                    
AVIATION...FOURNIER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
435 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FOCUS ON MORNING LEFTOVER CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT QLCS/FROPA.            
THEN CLOUD COVER/TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO SAVE                    
MORNING PCPN FORECAST UNTIL LAST MINUTE AND UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY.             
CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND MAY NOT EVEN SEE PCPN MAKE              
ITS WAY INTO THE FAR SE COUNTIES AT ALL...WHILE POST FRONTAL                    
CONVECTION/TRAILING STRATIFORM CLOUDS LINGER OVER SW SECTIONS AS                
INDICATED BY RUC MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS. NEGATIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE OVER NW AS SFC DEW POINTS OVER SE SD AND SW MN            
IN THE 50S AND IS REFLECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES            
UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE.                                                    
FARTHER OUT TOWARD MIDDLE OF WEEK...RAISED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS            
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY GIVEN BOTH NAM AND GFS IN AGREEMENT IN               
DEVELOPING AND ADVECTING MCS OVER NORTHCENTRAL AND POSSIBLY INTO                
CENTRAL IA. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS                  
PERIOD AS WELL AS CONVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THE                   
CURRENT FORECASTED 90S ESPECIALLY NORTH. LATEST GFS 850 TEMPS HOLD              
WARMEST VALUES IN THE FAR SW/W SO COULD SEE A DECENT GRADIENT OF                
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH THE CONVECTION.               
BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHES SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AND NEEDED TO LOWER                  
OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RUSSELL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
418 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA AND WINDS TODAY/TONIGHT.                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE               
TROF FOR JULY MOVING E INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 00Z RAOBS             
INDICATED 12HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS OF 70M OVER THE DAKOTAS. AT 850MB...             
00Z RAOBS SHOWED A SHOT OF COOLER AIR DIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS                
WITH TEMPS OF 13/10C AT KBIS/CYQD WHILE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT                 
TEMPS WERE 23/18/20/21C AT CWPL/KINL/KMPX/KGRB RESPECTIVELY. TOOK A             
WHILE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE LAST EVENING ALONG COLD FRONT AS                   
DYNAMICS LAGGED FRONT...BUT IT FINALLY DID TAKE OFF AND IS STILL                
HOLDING TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND ZONE OF                 
SHRA/TSRA...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE W HALF OF MN. A LITTLE            
FARTHER UPSTREAM...AREA OF STRATOCU AND EVEN A FEW -SHRA ARE                    
ROTATING ESE THRU ND TOWARD NW MN ON BACKSIDE OF MIDLEVEL TROF                  
AXIS.                                                                           
LEAD COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IS ALMOST TO WRN UPPER                
MI. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...            
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E ACROSS REST OF FCST AREA QUICKLY                
THIS MORNING...EXITING THE E AROUND NOON OR EARLY AFTN. WILL CARRY              
SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE UNTIL IT EXITS THE AREA. 00Z KABR              
SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF AIRMASS THAT                
WILL SWEEP INTO UPPER MI BEHIND COLD FRONT. THIS SURGE OF DRIER AIR             
AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHICH NAM/GFS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON             
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL OF ANY SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT AFTER FROPA...AT            
LEAST UNTIL MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS ARRIVES. ONE AREA OF POSSIBLE CONCERN            
THOUGH IS THE ERN FCST AREA WHERE LAKE BREEZE WILL KICK IN OFF                  
SUPERIOR. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SHOW IT. SFC DWPTS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER            
TO FALL OVER THE E...AND THE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY LAKE BREEZE                
COULD INITIATE NEW SHRA/TSRA IN LINGERING INSTABILITY DURING THE                
MID/LATE AFTN. MODIFIED NAM FCST SOUNDING AT KERY FOR A SFC T/TD OF             
84/66F AT 18Z YIELDS 1100J/KG. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FAIRLY                
PRONOUNCED...BUT NOT SURE IT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO COMPLETELY RULE              
OUT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ON LAKE BREEZE. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC               
SHRA/TSRA FOR MID/LATE AFTN FROM ERN ALGER ACROSS NRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
INTO LUCE COUNTY. TO THE W...ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS/DEEPER               
MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTN MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHRA              
REDEVELOPING. POSSIBILITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY VORT MAX GFS/NAM              
SHOW SWINGING THRU TROF. WILL BRING CHC FROM THE NW FCST AREA LATE              
AFTN ACROSS THE N TONIGHT...ENDING BY DAYBREAK. GOING FCST HAS THIS             
COVERED WELL.                                                                   
OTHER CONCERN THIS AFTN/EVENING IS WIND...MAINLY ON THE KEWEENAW.               
DEEP MIXING WITHIN DRY SLOT AND CAA REGIME WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY            
CONDITIONS OVER THE W HALF THIS AFTN. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW 35KT             
OR SO IN THE MIXED LAYER THIS AFTN...SUGGESTING WIND ADVY CRITERIA              
MAY BE ACHIEVED. WRLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE FOR            
STRONG WINDS ON THE KEWEENAW AS WELL. IN ADDITION...THOUGH NOT                  
STRONG...ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL GIVE WINDS A BOOST WITH 3HR PRES            
RISE MAX SHIFTING E AND IDEALLY PLACED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE              
THIS AFTN. HAVE THUS DECIDED TO ISSUE WIND ADVY FOR NRN                         
HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES FROM 18Z TO 02Z IN LIGHT OF THE FAVORABLE            
FACTORS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE W HALF OR SO...EXPECT W WINDS OF                  
15-25MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.                                 
WILL BE COOLER AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TONIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO             
THE LOW-MID 50S PER REASONABLE MOS GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM/GFS.                   
EXPECT SOME UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR SW WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS               
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTEST WINDS.                                      
ANY LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE N AND E SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT TUE                   
MORNING AS PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY               
SUNNY DAY WITH FEW/SCT CU DEVELOPING INLAND. WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY             
WITH HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND DWPTS UPPER 40S             
TO LWR 50S. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE                
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY HEADING ACROSS SCNTRL            
CANADA TUE NIGHT/WED. IN RESPONSE...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUE NIGHT              
WITH GFS/NAM INDICATING LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 40-50KT INTO                
MN/WRN ONTARIO. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WITH NAM A GOOD 6HRS            
FASTER THAN GFS IN TRANSLATING JET EWD...REACHING UPPER MI BY 12Z               
WED. THUS...IT HAS PCPN INTO THE WRN COUNTIES BTWN 09Z AND 12Z AND              
THEN SPREADS IT E ACROSS UPPER MI DURING THE DAY WED. THE GFS ON THE            
OTHER HAND DOES NOT SHOW ANY PCPN REACHING THE WRN COUNTIES UNTIL               
WED AFTN. WHILE THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH               
THIS SYSTEM...THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND STRONGER. CANADIAN                 
SUPPORTS THE GFS WHILE THE UKMET LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THE NAM...SO             
NO CLEAR FAVORITE HERE. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS SOLUTION DUE             
TO ITS CONTINUITY. GOING FCST DID NOT HAVE PCPN MENTIONED UNTIL                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT. WILL BUMP UP TIMING OF PCPN TO START WED              
EVENING W PER GFS. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PASS             
ACROSS UPPER MI WED NIGHT. THERE WON'T BE A STRONG GULF CONNECTION              
DUE TO CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE EMILY OVER NE MEXICO...AND                  
PATTERN HAS BEEN DRY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. SO...WILL KEEP              
POPS IN THE LOW CHC RANGE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK              
COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS PUSHING 20C AGAIN WED IN SW FLOW SHOULD SEND            
HIGHS                                                                           
INTO THE LWR 90S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. OF COURSE...IF THE FASTER             
NAM/UKMET SOLUTION WORKS OUT...IT WILL NOT BE THAT WARM.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVY MIZ001-003 FROM 18Z              
       TODAY TO 02Z TONIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
400 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE ADVANCING                
THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING                
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.                                                       
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM                     
CONVECTION AND IMPACT ON AREA THIS MORNING. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS              
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND MARINE WINDS...THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH AWAY FROM SURFACE BOUNDARY/               
700-500 MB QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD THUS                 
WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY              
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AM HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 12Z CAPES (FROM             
950 MB) 1000-1500 J/KG AND 950-850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA...CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO                 
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE ADDITIONAL             
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION                  
REGIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX...PER LATEST NAM/GFS/RUC GUIDANCE.             
CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF EASTERN              
UPPER MICHIGAN AND 30-50% POPS ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT FAR             
E COUNTIES...TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE                    
CHANGING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND TRENDS MAY YET COMPEL HIGHER POPS OVER            
A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.                                     
AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION FADES...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT               
WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE 700-500 MB QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT...WHILE AN              
80-100 KT 300-200 MB JET MAX WILL SWING THROUGH N/W COUNTIES OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                    
SYNOPTIC ASCENT...A NEW ROUND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE               
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION                   
ADVANCING E/SE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                           
IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO...0Z NAM SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (EASTERN UP/NW LOWER) TO MID 90S (IN DOWNSLOPE             
AREAS ACROSS E/SE COUNTIES) AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F YIELD CAPES                
2000-3000 J/KG...EVEN AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG E/SE IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS             
(LOWER 70S) POOL AHEAD OF FRONT AND OFFSET MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT            
TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...MORNING CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS            
MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N/W. GIVEN THIS               
SCENARIO AND 0Z NAM TIMING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR THE             
PM ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
1/2-2/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. IN FACT...POPS WILL BE LIKELY DURING              
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E/SE...AND EVEN HIGHER POPS              
MAY BE NEEDED IF A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.                                 
THE INSTABILITY...IF POTENTIAL IS FULLY REALIZED...WILL SUPPORT                 
STRONG UPDRAFTS ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN 0-6 KM BULK                 
SHEAR 10-20 KTS TO START...INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS...SUPERCELLS DO              
NOT APPEAR LIKELY...WITH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORING PULSE                  
CONVECTION TO START...WITH A TRANSITION TO ORGANIZED BOWS/SEGMENTS.             
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS THIS                        
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...AS 850-500 MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40              
KTS...WHILE 0Z NAM CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL SURFACE-700 DELTA THETA-E              
AROUND 20C. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN                 
DECENT CAPES IN -10C TO -30C LAYER...AND IF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR (700            
MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C SWINGING AROUND SHORTWAVE)/LOWERING               
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS (INTO THE 10.5 TO 12 KFT RANGE) SPREAD OVER                
FRONT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT               
INCLUDE AM CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING PM DESTABILIZATION...THE                
MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING LIFTING NE THIS                       
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS/DEEP                 
LAYER SHEAR (500 MB WINDS >50 KTS AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR > 40 KTS)               
LAGGING BEHIND SURFACE FRONT POSITION. IN A LESS LIKELY                         
SCENARIO...IF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...AND IF SURFACE FRONT            
SLOWS...ALLOWING STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR TO CATCH UP WITH                
CONVECTION...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT COULD IMPACT E/SE COUNTIES              
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                         
MEANWHILE...WAVES ARE ALREADY 3 FEET ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...               
WITHIN THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE                    
APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO...THE MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO 25-35 KNOT              
WINDS TODAY...PROMOTING GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL IMPACT DOWNWIND                   
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES ACROSS THE N/E. THUS...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT            
ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS.                                                       
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION PUSHES 925 MB              
TEMPS INTO THE 7-12C RANGE...THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN              
WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT                    
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE               
SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH.                
FINALLY...AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION            
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM...BETWEEN               
THE RETREATING HIGH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                 
PUSHING                                                                         
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT (ENHANCED BY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING              
TO 30-40 KTS PUSHING RIBBON OF 850 MB DEWPOINTS 14C TO                          
18C)...DESTABILIZATION (CAPES AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB            
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO AROUND 7 C/KM) AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT                    
(INCLUDING 700-500 MB QG FORCING) SHOULD PROMOTE UPSTREAM                       
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED/SEVERE WITHIN 35-45 KNOT 0-6 KM BULK            
SHEAR REGIME. THIS REGIME WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/SE AND INTO THE               
FORECAST AREA. WHILE 0Z MODEL TIMING DIFFERS GREATLY CONCERNING THE             
TIMING OF PRECIP...WITH THE NAM PUSHING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AS             
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A COMPROMISE SOLUTION SUGGESTS CHANCE            
POPS ARE IN ORDER AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE N/W...AND              
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. ADJUSTED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.                             
NO CHANGES TO FORECASTS BEYOND THURSDAY.                                        
ROWLEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
346 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AFTER UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND PERUSAL OF THE ETA...MESOETA..AND RUC              
MODELS...I HAVE DELAYED THE DEMISE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM         
PATTERN...AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS STILL IN PLACE              
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH IT                       
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF DEEP                     
LAYERED MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH...AND RELATIVELY GOOD INFLOW                
OF THIS MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS. FURTHERMORE...THE CAPPING                    
INVERSION IS VERY WEAK IN MOST AREAS.                                           
WE WILL STAY THE COURSE ON TUESDAY...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD                    
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN                        
ZONES...WHERE A BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP MAY ALLOW A FEW                      
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO              
NORTHEAST TEXAS.                                                                
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE                  
SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE VERY WARM DEW POINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE              
SEA BREEZE...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...TO ALLOW FOR LOW                      
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.              
WE WILL SLOW THE WARM UP JUST A BIT...BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE                     
MOISTURE. LOOK FOR MORE HEAT IN THE 6-12 DAY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.          
#26                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  97  76 /  30  10  10  10                          
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75 /  30  10   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             93  74  96  73 /  40  30  20  20                          
DENTON, TX            96  76  97  75 /  30  10  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          95  76  97  74 /  30  30  20  20                          
DALLAS, TX            96  76  97  77 /  30  30  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           95  77  96  75 /  40  30  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         95  76  96  75 /  40  30  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            94  75  95  74 /  30  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/26                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1139 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA AND STRONG WINDS             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NW UPR MI.                                            
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE                  
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WRN UPR MI. 12HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS OF 150M                
WERE NOTED OVER KINL ON 12Z RAOB. AT 850MB...12Z RAOBS SHOW POCKET              
OF COOLER AIR DIVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH TEMPS OF AROUND 7-8C              
DIPPING INTO NRN ND. T/TD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE 20/16C AT                
KAPX. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CDFNT OVER ERN ALGER AND SCHOOLCRAFT                 
COUNTIES AND VIS SATL INDICATES THICKEST CLOUD COVER ALONG AND                  
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING BACK INTO CENTRAL                    
COUNTIES. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LUCE AND ERN SCHOOLCRAFT                   
COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION IN NEXT COUPLE HRS AHEAD OF THE                
FRONT AS T/TD AT LUCE IS 81/73...ALTHOUGH AT SAME TIME ADVANCING                
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS MAY PREVENT KERY FROM REACHING                      
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE (MID 80S AS BASED ON 12Z APX SNDG).                      
MODELS STILL HINT A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO MOVE              
IN OVER ERN UPR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF MID            
60S DWPNTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN SOME LATE AFT                    
CONVECTION OVER ERN ALGER-LUCE AND NRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES GIVEN               
SOME SUN. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDING AT KERY FOR A SFC T/TD OF                  
84/66F YIELDS AROUND 1000J/KG...ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS             
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED. STILL WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSRA FOR                  
MID/LATE AFTN FOR THESE COUNTIES. TO THE W...ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL                
TROF AXIS/DEEPER MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT IN THE AFTN MAY ALLOW            
A FEW SHRA TO REDEVELOP OVER NW AND NCNTRL COUNTIES.                            
ANOTHER CONCERN THIS AFTN/EVENING IS WIND...MAINLY OVR THE KEWEENAW             
WHERE WIND ADVISORY IS POSTED. MODELS SHOW SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO              
MOVE THROUGH NW UPR MI AROUND 21Z WITH ASSOC 8H COLD POOL OF AROUND             
5C TO FOLLOW AND MOVE OVER THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HRS. I AM A BIT            
CONCERNED HOWEVER BY ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS IN WAKE OF SECONDARY CDFNT             
OVER NRN PLAINS WHERE 3H PRES RISE BULLSEYE OF 3MB IS LOCATED. WIND             
GUSTS OVER THIS AREA HAVING TROUBLE REACHING 30 KT. BELIEVE DEEP                
MIXING MAY BE INHIBITED BY THESE CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS.             
ALSO ETA BUFR SNDG FOR KCMX SHOWS MAX WINDS TO ONLY 35 KTS WITHIN               
THE MIXED LAYER. DESPITE ALL THIS...AM HESITANT TO PULL WIND                    
HEADLINE DOWN AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE EVENT HAS HAD                
TIME TO START. ALSO CAN'T DISCOUNT THAT WRLY WIND SPEEDS MAY BE                 
ENHANCED SOME BY CHANNELING THROUGH THE PORTAGE CANAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVY MIZ001-003 FROM 18Z              
       TODAY TO 02Z TONIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
745 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...PER AREA OBSERVATIONS...DROPPED MENTION OF MORNING                    
FOG...AND PER RADAR TRENDS...ADJUSTED FORECASTS FOR CHANCE POPS                 
ANYWHERE UNTIL 2-3 PM...WHEN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE                   
NUMEROUS ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT.                                           
ROWLEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON JUL 18                                 
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE ADVANCING                 
THROUGH THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING                
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.                                                       
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS ON EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM                     
CONVECTION AND IMPACT ON AREA THIS MORNING. THEN...ATTENTION TURNS              
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...AND MARINE WINDS...THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL PUSH AWAY FROM SURFACE BOUNDARY/               
700-500 MB QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE AND SHOULD THUS                 
WEAKEN/DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS MORNING...THUS DO NOT EXPECT ANY              
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AM HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN 12Z CAPES (FROM             
950 MB) 1000-1500 J/KG AND 950-850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE             
FORECAST AREA...CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER SUFFICIENTLY TO                 
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE ADDITIONAL             
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MOISTURE ADVECTION                  
REGIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX...PER LATEST NAM/GFS/RUC GUIDANCE.             
CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR 60-70% POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF EASTERN              
UPPER MICHIGAN AND 30-50% POPS ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS...EXCEPT FAR             
E COUNTIES...TO START THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE                    
CHANGING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...AND TRENDS MAY YET COMPEL HIGHER POPS OVER            
A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.                                     
AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION FADES...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT               
WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE 700-500 MB QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH               
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE FRONT...WHILE AN              
80-100 KT 300-200 MB JET MAX WILL SWING THROUGH N/W COUNTIES OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND                    
SYNOPTIC ASCENT...A NEW ROUND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THE               
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE FRONT AND CONVECTION                   
ADVANCING E/SE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                           
IN THE MOST UNSTABLE SCENARIO...0Z NAM SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR HIGH              
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S (EASTERN UP/NW LOWER) TO MID 90S (IN DOWNSLOPE             
AREAS ACROSS E/SE COUNTIES) AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F YIELD CAPES                
2000-3000 J/KG...EVEN AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG E/SE IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS             
(LOWER 70S) POOL AHEAD OF FRONT AND OFFSET MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT            
TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...MORNING CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS            
MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N/W. GIVEN THIS               
SCENARIO AND 0Z NAM TIMING OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...THREAT FOR THE             
PM ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN                  
1/2-2/3 OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. IN FACT...POPS WILL BE LIKELY DURING              
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE E/SE...AND EVEN HIGHER POPS              
MAY BE NEEDED IF A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS.                                 
THE INSTABILITY...IF POTENTIAL IS FULLY REALIZED...WILL SUPPORT                 
STRONG UPDRAFTS ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN 0-6 KM BULK                 
SHEAR 10-20 KTS TO START...INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS...SUPERCELLS DO              
NOT APPEAR LIKELY...WITH A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FAVORING PULSE                  
CONVECTION TO START...WITH A TRANSITION TO ORGANIZED BOWS/SEGMENTS.             
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS THIS                        
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE...AS 850-500 MB WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40              
KTS...WHILE 0Z NAM CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL SURFACE-700 DELTA THETA-E              
AROUND 20C. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN                 
DECENT CAPES IN -10C TO -30C LAYER...AND IF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR (700            
MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 5-10C SWINGING AROUND SHORTWAVE)/LOWERING               
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS (INTO THE 10.5 TO 12 KFT RANGE) SPREAD OVER                
FRONT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT               
INCLUDE AM CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING PM DESTABILIZATION...THE                
MAIN SHORTWAVE/STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING LIFTING NE THIS                       
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS/DEEP                 
LAYER SHEAR (500 MB WINDS >50 KTS AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR > 40 KTS)               
LAGGING BEHIND SURFACE FRONT POSITION. IN A LESS LIKELY                         
SCENARIO...IF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY IS REALIZED...AND IF SURFACE FRONT            
SLOWS...ALLOWING STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR TO CATCH UP WITH                
CONVECTION...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT COULD IMPACT E/SE COUNTIES              
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                         
MEANWHILE...WAVES ARE ALREADY 3 FEET ON NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...               
WITHIN THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE                    
APPROACHING FRONT. ALSO...THE MIXED LAYER WILL TAP INTO 25-35 KNOT              
WINDS TODAY...PROMOTING GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL IMPACT DOWNWIND                   
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES ACROSS THE N/E. THUS...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT            
ADVISORIES FOR ALL AREAS.                                                       
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FROPA...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION PUSHES 925 MB              
TEMPS INTO THE 7-12C RANGE...THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN              
WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT                    
ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE               
SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH.                
FINALLY...AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION            
WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP UPSTREAM...BETWEEN               
THE RETREATING HIGH AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT                 
PUSHING                                                                         
INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT (ENHANCED BY 850 MB WINDS INCREASING              
TO 30-40 KTS PUSHING RIBBON OF 850 MB DEWPOINTS 14C TO                          
18C)...DESTABILIZATION (CAPES AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB            
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO AROUND 7 C/KM) AND SYNOPTIC ASCENT                    
(INCLUDING 700-500 MB QG FORCING) SHOULD PROMOTE UPSTREAM                       
CONVECTION...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED/SEVERE WITHIN 35-45 KNOT 0-6 KM BULK            
SHEAR REGIME. THIS REGIME WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE E/SE AND INTO THE               
FORECAST AREA. WHILE 0Z MODEL TIMING DIFFERS GREATLY CONCERNING THE             
TIMING OF PRECIP...WITH THE NAM PUSHING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA AS             
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...A COMPROMISE SOLUTION SUGGESTS CHANCE            
POPS ARE IN ORDER AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE N/W...AND              
ALL AREAS THURSDAY. ADJUSTED FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.                             
NO CHANGES TO FORECASTS BEYOND THURSDAY.                                        
ROWLEY                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1046 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM...HOT,VERY MOIST, AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER E NC ONCE            
AGAIN. BOTH GSO AND MHX SOUNDINGS HAVE TRIGGER TEMP OF 87 SO EXPECT             
ISOLD CONVECTION TO BEGIN WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO. BY MID AFTN EXPECT              
SCT COVERAGE. PW FROM MHX 12Z SOUNDING WAS 2.25 INCHES. THE STORMS              
THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP A LOT OF RAIN IN A SHORT           
PERIOD OF TIME DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION OF ESE 10 KT OR LESS. SEE NO            
COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE CURRENT FCST SO NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS           
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW                                             
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPR LVL AND SFC RDG TRIES TO            
STA OVR US DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WK...BUT GET SQUEEZED S WI             
APPCHG SYS. MDLS HVG A HARD TM PUSHG FRNT THRU...BUT LUKS LK IT                 
MIGHT MK A RUN AT IT ON THU NGT OR FRI WI FLO BCMG SLY AGAIN SAT                
EVE. MDLS SHOWG IT MVG FAIRLY SLOWLY WI A CHC OF PCPN OVR MST OF THE            
CWA MUCH OF THE TM FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WK AND THE WKEND.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH ANY FOG AND ASSOC              
REDUCED VIS IN EASTERN NC HAVING ALREADY BURNED OFF. EXPECT TODAY TO            
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH WDLY SCT TSRA/SHRA AND ASSOC MVFR/IFR              
CONDS DEVELOPING BY 18Z AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...HIGH                        
DEWPOINTS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH PIEDMONT            
TROUGH INLAND AND SEABREEZE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS CONTINUES. AFT              
00Z THIS EVENING EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN WITH                
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH A FEW LOW AND SCATTERED MID-LEVEL                
CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM DAYTIME CONVECTION PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE WESTERLY AROUND 15 KTS THIS MORNING DUE TO WEAK             
SFC LOW OFF DELMARVA AND ASSCTD WEAK SFC TROF EXTENDING OFF NC                  
COAST. LATEST RUC AND ETA12 REFLECT THIS...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN                 
COASTAL TROF THIS AFTN AS PIEDMONT TROF SHARPENS INLAND WITH                    
HEATING. THIS WILL BACK WINDS AROUND TO SW THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS                
MAINLY 10-15 KTS. ADJUSTED WINDS GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND               
SHRT TERM MODEL FCSTS. SEAS OK AROUND 3 FT.                                     
RIP CURRENTS...LOW THREAT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND MODERATE SOUTH OF               
HATTERAS MAINLY DUE TO LONG PERIOD E-SE SWELL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098 FROM                  
     NOON TO 5 PM TODAY.                                                        
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WS                                                                 
LONG TERM...WS                                                                  
AVIATION...BV                                                                   
MARINE...JBM                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1109 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER FA WITH A                  
COLD FROM WESTERN LOWER MI TO NEAR KSTL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING              
STRATA CU BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. MORNING ILN SOUNDING ALREADY                    
SHOWED NEARLY 1000 J/KG AT 12Z.                                                 
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REALLY GOOD. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING              
WORDING IN THE PORTSMOUTH AREA. LATEST NAM AND RUC SHOWING 3500 TO              
5000 J/KG THIS AFT/EVE ACROSS FA WITH NO CINH. BEST LIFT FOR FA                 
COMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. HOWEVER WITH SUCH               
GOOD INSTABILITY THE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE                
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED                     
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AT ANY TIME.                                          
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. CONCERNED ABOUT HEAT INDICES THIS               
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD. THESE VALUES                 
GIVE BASICALLY 95 TO 100 HEAT INDICES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY                
AND LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT THREAT.                           
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 653 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT TAF SITES              
WILL BE SPARED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT LCK MAY BE AFFECTED AND BEARS              
WATCHING.  AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH                    
CUMULONIMBUS AT ALL SITES.  AFTER AN EVENING LULL...THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE              
WEST. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLO CONTINUING             
ACRS THE OH VLY WITH PW/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THIS IS AHD OF A                   
PROGRESSIVE S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH PUSHES THRU THE GREAT LAKES           
TNGT INTO TUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO OH OVERNIGHT              
INTO TUE AND THEN WASH OUT NEAR THE OH RIVER AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL             
TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                                                   
GOOD INSTBY TO DEVELOP TDA IN MOIST AMS WITH CAPES OF 4000-4500                 
J/KG. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT                 
ALONG WITH INSTBY WL INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION TDA. THE BEST COVERAGE            
TO OCCUR OVER THE NW WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTBY EXPECTED. EXPECT            
TEMPS TO WARM UP AHD OF THE FRONT TDA AND BASED ON LOW LEVEL                    
THICKNESS AND 8H FCST SCHEMES HAVE GONE A LTL ABV MAV GUID NUMBERS.             
AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TNGT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO LKLY                
CAT ACRS ALL BUT THE SE. MAX DELTA THETA E AROUND 30 THIS AFTN                  
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WL BE PSBL DURG AFTN INTO EVE HOURS                
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NW BUT WITH BEST DYNAMICS TO THE N...SHEAR IS               
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND INSTBY WEAKENS INTO THE EVE. SO EXPECT STRONG TO             
STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACRS FA TNGT.                                     
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SE INTO OH VLY TUE HAVE CONTINUED                
CHC POPS WITH THE BEST THREAT ACRS THE S. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF                
COOLING WITH DECAYING FRONT AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LTL WARMER THAN           
GUID NUMBERS FOR HI/S. HAVE KEPT A CHC/SLIGHT CHC ALONG AND SOUTH               
OF THE OH RIVER ON WED NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005               
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON            
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A               
LINGERING CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE                
TAIL END OF THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.                           
HAVE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH HPC EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE NEXT             
SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE              
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE AS MODELS              
SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH RUN. HAVE LIMITED THE CHANCE OF                
PRECIPITATION TO FRIDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED                
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
910 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD POPS IN THE MORNING PERIOD FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS.            
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THE MORNING PERIOD FOR NERN 2/3RDS.              
UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES PERSISTENT SHEAR AXIS STILL LOCATED TO THE             
WEST OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING SLOWLY OVER THE LAST             
FEW DAYS.  OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...BUT MAY ISSUE                  
ANOTHER MORNING UPDATE LATER AS NEW MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND TRENDS               
BECOME MORE APPARENT.  TR/92                                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AFTER UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND PERUSAL OF THE ETA...MESOETA..AND RUC              
MODELS...I HAVE DELAYED THE DEMISE OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM         
PATTERN...AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY. THE SHEAR AXIS IS STILL IN PLACE              
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AND WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH IT                       
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SLOWLY. THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF DEEP                     
LAYERED MOISTURE EAST OF THE TROUGH...AND RELATIVELY GOOD INFLOW                
OF THIS MOISTURE INTO NORTH TEXAS. FURTHERMORE...THE CAPPING                    
INVERSION IS VERY WEAK IN MOST AREAS.                                           
WE WILL STAY THE COURSE ON TUESDAY...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS BUILD                    
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE ONLY POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN                        
ZONES...WHERE A BRIEF NORTHWEST FLOW SETUP MAY ALLOW A FEW                      
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE OKLAHOMA COOL FRONT TO MOVE INTO              
NORTHEAST TEXAS.                                                                
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE                  
SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE VERY WARM DEW POINTS WILL COMBINE WITH THE              
SEA BREEZE...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...TO ALLOW FOR LOW                      
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.              
WE WILL SLOW THE WARM UP JUST A BIT...BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE                     
MOISTURE. LOOK FOR MORE HEAT IN THE 6-12 DAY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...OR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.          
#26                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  76  97  76 /  30  10  10  10                          
WACO, TX              95  75  96  75 /  30  10   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             93  74  96  73 /  40  30  20  20                          
DENTON, TX            96  76  97  75 /  30  10  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          95  76  97  74 /  30  30  20  20                          
DALLAS, TX            96  76  97  77 /  30  30  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           95  77  96  75 /  40  30  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         95  76  96  75 /  40  30  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            94  75  95  74 /  30  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/26                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
240 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
..HOT WEATHER TO RETURN TO S CNTRL/SERN CO TUE...                               
...RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE TUE...                             
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES TELL THE               
STORY. A LARGE AIR OF RELATIVELY "DRY" IN THE H5-H3 LAYER WAS                   
MOVING QUICKLY INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. ALSO...A H5-H3 LAYER                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INCLUDING AN ASSOCIATED POSITIVE H3-H2 POTENTIAL               
VORTICITY "LOBE" WAS OVER ERN CO AND RACING EWD. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT             
OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WAS OCCURRING BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE. IN                
RESPONSE...ONLY SCT-BKN "FLAT" CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS             
OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLANS...DESPITE SFC DEW POINTS IN             
THE 40S AND 50S. ALSO...CAPPING INVERSION IS STILL IN PLACE EARLY               
THIS AFTN...WHICH IS ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SO...                  
BASICALLY...SATELLITE AND RADAR HAS BEEN "QUIET" EARLY THIS AFTN IN             
TERMS OF SHRA/TSRA. SFC TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 80S                
ACROSS SERN CO...WHICH IS A TREAT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S HOT                   
TEMPERATURES. LARGE "HOT" HIGH OVER CA APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING EWD               
WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF WATER VAPOR AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES.                 
LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGT...THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA FORMING              
SHOULD BE AROUND OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS AND SRN FOOTHILL GIVEN                    
SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE...                 
HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MIGHT WIN OUT. WILL ADJUST THE               
POP/WX GRIDS TO SHIFT THE HIGHER COVERAGE/PROBABILITY TO THE SRN                
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS/SRN FOOTHILLS ALBEIT 15-23% POP.  ANY                
MOIST CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEBRIS CLOUDS...IF THEY FORM AT             
ALL...SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.                                             
TUE...PROJECTED PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE LARGE "HOT" HIGH                
OVER CA TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY TUE AFTN.                    
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS               
SYSTEM. +20C TO +22C H7 TEMPS MOVING INTO S CNTRL CO AND THE I-25               
CORRIDOR BY LATE TUE AFTN. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT TEMPS                   
AROUND 100F IN PUB AND 90-95F IN COS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE               
GFS IS EVEN MORE EXPANSIVE WITH THIS HOT AIR ACROSS CO. RECORD HIGH             
TEMPS FOR TUE ARE: COS 95F/1998...PUB 104F/2003...AND ALS 90/2003.              
AS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW GIVEN SUCH HOT                
TEMPS ALOFT. DRYLINE SHIFTS INTO ERN CO/WRN KS...BUT A CAPPING                  
INVERSION AND LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE THE               
POPS/WX ARE JUST ABOUT NIL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST JUST A THIN              
LAYER OF MOISTURE...PROBABLY "CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK"...FORMING OVER               
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP VERY LOW POPS(<13%) OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND             
HIGH VALLEYS IN THE AFTN. IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...IT WILL LIKELY                
PRODUCE VIRGA...SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS SOME DRY LIGHTNING.                       
COVERAGE/POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES...BUT IT             
WILL BE "DRY"...UNSTABLE(HAINES 6)...AND THERE IS VERY HEAVY                    
DROUGHT STRESSED FUELS. WINDS WILL ALSO BE THERMALLY/TERRAIN                    
DRIVEN...EXCEPT FAR SERN CO NEAR THE DRYLINE.                                   
PICK SPOT ON TUE WILL BE....PIKES PEAK...MOSTLY SUNNY...HIGHS 55-60F.           
[METZE]                                                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                  
HOT TEMPERATURES AND POPS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.                     
TUE NIGHT-THU...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS              
THE DESERT SW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS           
THE REGION...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING JET CORE AND COOLER WX UP ACROSS THE             
CANADIAN BORDER. WITH H7 TEMPS BETWEEN +16C AND +20C PROGGED UNDER              
THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH STRONG SOLAR HEATING...WILL SEE TEMPS WELL               
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH 90S TO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS            
THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER                  
TERRAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER THE                  
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL           
COLORADO...FOR A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND           
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT POPS            
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND             
WEST. FURTHER EAST...THE WARM AIR ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP A LID ON                  
CONVECTION AND WILL KEEP THINGS DRY.                                            
FRI-MON...CENTER OF UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST...                
ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS               
THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SUBTROPICAL/MONSOON                     
MOISTURE ACROSS OLD MEXICO SLOWLY BECOMING ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO WESTERN              
COLORADO ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL              
MOISTURE...HAVE TRENDED POP GRIDS TO MATCH...WITH ISOLATED POPS                 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AND INCREASING CHANCES           
OF WETTING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND             
MONDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR INCREASED DRY LIGHTNING/FIREWX                   
CONCERNS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS THE             
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP. WITH INCREASED           
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES...CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS OF SLIGHT           
COOLING EACH DAY TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE               
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LOOKS REASONABLE. -MW                                     
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1115 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER CONVECTION CHANCES TO              
30% FROM THE IL RIVER NW AND BUMP UP TO 50% OVER EASTERN IL FROM                
I-57 EAST. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY WARM              
AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...MORE HUMID                
FROM I-55 EAST.                                                                 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST PASSING EAST OF             
THE IL RIVER JUST PAST A CHICAGO TO PEORIA TO QUINCY LINE WHERE                 
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE SW TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT CONNECTS TO A            
992 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO NEAR HUDSON BAY AND HAS BEEN                   
WEAKENING AS IT PRESSES SE TOWARD CENTRAL IL. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE             
WAS NEAR THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER               
PARTS OF CENTRAL IL FROM I-55 EAST HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED               
INTO INDIANA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS OVER SOUTHERN MO SOUTH OF                
I-70 AND MOVING EAST INTO FAR SW IL THAT IS ALONG AN OUTFLOW                    
BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS THAT WAS OVER IA/MO LAST NIGHT.                            
THINK CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT THAT MOVES FROM THE IL RIVER TO I-55 BY 18Z/1 PM AND TO               
I-57 BY 00Z AND INTO SE IL TONIGHT. BOTH RUC AND NAM SHOW BEST QPF              
THIS AFTERNOON FROM I-55 EAST WHILE NW IL FROM THE IL RIVER NW LOOKS            
DRY. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS            
AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL FROM A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL                  
SUNSET SE OF THE IL RIVER...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL. MID LEVEL               
CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN LIMITING CONVECTION IS WEAKING WITH             
DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD GET MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                     
DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IT QUITE UNSTABLE WITH                
KILX 12Z CAPE OF 2700 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 5C. TEMPS ARE              
HEATING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY 11 AM WITH PEORIA UP TO 87                
WHILE HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F. THIS DUE TO HIGH             
DEWPOINTS 70 TO 75F...EXCEPT MID 60S FROM PEORIA NW BEHIND THE                  
FRONT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE POPS AND HIGH TEMPS                   
TODAY...AS WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION.  IN THE                
LONGER-TERM...EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO EXTENT OF UPPER RIDGING AND                
SUBSEQUENT HEAT LATER IN THE WEEK.                                              
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN               
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR NW IOWA.  LINE OF CONVECTION               
HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DOWN INTO NW                
MISSOURI AND KANSAS.  WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS               
ILLINOIS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.                      
ALOFT...PERSISTENT OHIO VALLEY UPPER VORT MAX HAS FINALLY LIFTED                
NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS.                                                                
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
FIRST ISSUE OF THE DAY WILL BE HOW TO HANDLE ONGOING CONVECTION                 
ACROSS IOWA.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE               
PAST HOUR OR SO...AS STORMS TRANSLATE AWAY FROM BEST LOW-LEVEL JET              
DYNAMICS.  IN ADDITION...CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO A MUCH DRIER                
ENVIRONMENT...AS EVIDENCED BY THE 00Z KDVN AND KILX SOUNDINGS.                  
THINK WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF                     
HOURS...WITH ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT AND A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT            
OVER BY THE TIME THE REMNANTS SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN KILX CWA AFTER            
SUNRISE.  FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS SE...AS BEST UPPER                 
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES DUE EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  MODELS IN              
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INITIAL TIMING OF BOUNDARY...BRINGING IT INTO               
EASTERN IOWA/NW ILLINOIS BY 18Z MON...THEN TO NEAR THE I-55 CORRIDOR            
BY 00Z TUE.  ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BECOME QUITE                        
UNSTABLE...WITH LI'S IN THE -4 TO -8 RANGE AND CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING            
2500 J/KG.  INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LACK OF UPPER              
SUPPORT AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY.  DESPITE                   
NEGATIVE FACTORS...THINK SCT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE              
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55.  COVERAGE WILL BE                    
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH BEST COVERAGE LIKELY FURTHER NE ACROSS THE              
GREAT LAKES.  CURRENT 40 POPS LOOK OK FOR TODAY...SO HAVE MADE NO               
ADJUSTMENTS.  WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP ACROSS THE              
REGION TODAY...TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN A BIT.  HAVE GENERALLY GONE              
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND                
LOWER 90S.                                                                      
AFTER THAT...BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA                
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  00Z JUL 18 MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN            
RECENT RUNS...AS THE ONCE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE NAM AND GFS NOW HOLD                
FRONT FURTHER NORTH...MORE SIMILAR TO THE SOLUTION THE                          
ECMWF/CANADIAN HAVE ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  BOTTOM LINE WILL              
BE CONTINUED LOW POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA                       
TONIGHT...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.  FRONT THEN                
WASHES OUT...AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON                        
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
IN THE EXTENDED...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE            
MIDWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...THERE              
ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AS                     
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY TRACKS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  GFS IS                
STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...DROPPING A FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH                  
ILLINOIS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF/CANADIAN               
KEEP THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN              
IOWA.  GIVEN THE ZONAL UPPER PATTERN IN PLACE...AND THE TRACK RECORD            
WITH THE CURRENT FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...WILL DEFINITELY PREFER            
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.  WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS            
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS HOVERING IN THE LOWER 90S.                 
FURTHER OUT...ALL MODELS AGREE THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE                  
WEEKEND...LEADING TO EVEN HOTTER TEMPS.  HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO THE             
MIDDLE 90S FOR SAT/SUN...BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED EVEN HIGHER            
IF CURRENT TREND HOLDS IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.                                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BARNES                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
152 PM MDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER                        
MINNESOTA...WITH A MORE SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA. ETA                
SEEMED TO HAVE LOTS OF PROBLEMS INITIALIZING THE 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE           
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WAS ABOUT 10KTS TO WEAK WITH JET STREAK AHEAD OF             
MN SHORT WAVE...AND WAS 1-4C TO COLD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AT H700. GFS            
INITIALIZED MUCH BETTER AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS ITS SOLUTION FOR             
THE SHORT TERM.                                                                 
FOR TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL SEE QUIET WEATHER AS COLD FRONT              
HAS LEFT VERY STABLE AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FEW                  
LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST            
WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A              
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 0-6 STEERING              
FLOW WOULD SUPPORT A STORM MAKING IT INTO CWA...BUT COMPARISON OF               
ETA/GFS/RUC STABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST A VERY STRONG CAP WITH LITTLE              
IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. GFS HINTING AT WEAK H300 WAVE                  
SLIDING ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT DONT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO              
SPARK ANY STORMS...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN                  
BEFORE I MAKE A FINAL DECISION. OVERNIGHT...WEAK H850 CONVERGENCE               
ZONE SETS UP SOUTH EAST OF OUR CWA. PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED             
WITH DEEP AREA OF WAA BETWEEN H850 AND H700. SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
SMALL AREA OF 500-900 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IN THIS AREA WITH CINH              
VALUES BELOW 50. THIS...AND BEFORE MENTIONED WEAK UPPER SUPPORT                 
LEADS ME TO THINK THAT A STRAY STORM COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND             
WILL THROW IN SOME 20 POPS TO COVER FOR THIS.                                   
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IF                 
ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW            
AIDED BY SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS WYOMING WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGH/DRY             
LINE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN CWA. BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE JUST               
WEST OF A YUMA-FLAGLER LINE...BUT STEERING WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE             
WEST SO STORMS SHOULDNT HAVE ANY TROUBLE ENTERING CWA. BULK SHEAR               
AROUND 30 KTS SHOULD HELP STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED...BUT INSTABILITY             
AND UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS VERY LIMITED ATTM. THEREFORE AM ONLY GOING            
TO KEEP POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE.                                             
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS             
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE             
FRONTAL FORCING...THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE               
FRONT AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT DOES NOT ENTER THE AREA TILL AFTER 03Z.            
DECIDED TO PULL POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS                                    
MOISTURE/LIFT/INSTABILITY DONT SEEM TO LINE UP VERY WELL. TEMPS WILL            
ONCE AGAIN BE VERY WARM AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE FIRST IN A              
SERIES OF 100+ TEMP DAYS. DEWPOINTS SEEM TO LOW TO WORRY ABOUT A                
HEAT ADVISORY...BUT IF A BIT MORE MOISTURE CREEPS INTO THE EASTERN              
CWA THIS MAY BECOME A CONCERN.                                                  
IN THE EXTENDED...NOT A LOT IN THE WAY OF CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING               
FORECAST AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG RIDGE               
ALOFT TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER MAKER FOR MUCH OF THE                       
PERIOD...BEFORE IT BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A RETURN            
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. HOT TEMPS LOOK              
LIKE THE WAY TO GO THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS H850 AND 2KM AGL               
TEMPS SUPPORT UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR WX...A             
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED FLATTEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON                  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS VERY               
LIMITED AND CAP STRONG SO WILL CONTINUE ONLY SILENT DIURNALLY DRIVEN            
POPS. DID ADD SOME ISOLATED POPS TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK WARM             
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE                
NORTHWEST CWA ON MONDAY...FLOW AT THE SFC WILL HAVE WEAK UPSLOPE                
COMPONENT WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A             
BIT MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND ALSO ALLOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO             
IMPACT THE AREA.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...TONIGHT THROUGH THU...                                                       
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWING VIGOROUS H5 TROUGH                    
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO NEAR MPX WITH SURFACE LOW JUST               
WEST OF JAMES BAY TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA ALONG            
EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE MI BACK INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY. AN INTENSE                
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY FIRING AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.             
BEHIND THIS FRONT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A SHOT OF                  
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WESTERN LAKE                          
SUPERIOR...TEMPS THERE HAVE BEEN IN THE 60S SINCE LAST NIGHT. THIS              
IS THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE COMING INTO THE UP OVERNIGHT AS A                   
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPS OVERNIGHT               
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION COMING IN...HOWEVER THIS COOLING WILL BE                
TEMPERED BY THE INCOMING CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS BREEZY CONDITIONS               
BEHIND THE FRONT.                                                               
FOR TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SFC               
HIGH BUILDING IN TUE. CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET AS THE HIGH MOVES                 
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL WARM             
AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE ON WED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN               
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT WEATHER               
MAKER...A TROUGH/FRONT STRETCHING FROM SASKATCHEWAN DOWN INTO THE               
NORTHCENTRAL PLAINS STATES.  H85 TEMPS AROUND 20C YIELD HIGHS IN THE            
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE MI                    
SHORELINE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TEMPERED AS THE BEST SOURCE OF                     
MOISTURE...THE GULF OF MEXICO...WILL BE CUT OFF BY A STRONG WESTERN             
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE                 
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT OVER THE CWA WED AFTERNOON...                
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH THE LLJ...SHOULD ALLOW               
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE              
CWA WED AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH BUFKIT CAPES             
WED AFTERNOON ARE QUITE HIGH...IN THE 1500-1800 J/KG RANGE...AND SPC            
HAS THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THE SEVERE RISK MAY            
BE LIMITED BY THE FACT THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO STAY IN            
CANADA. THE CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE BY LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE            
HEATING DIMINISHES...THUS LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THE EASTERN             
UP RECEIVES. THINGS QUIET DOWN AFTER THE FROPA AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE            
AGAIN MOVES OVER THE CWA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.                              
...DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...                                                          
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED ARE SIGNIFICANT                  
WARMING ON SAT AS WELL AS TIMING OF FROPA SAT/SUN.                              
FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLIGHTLY FASTER             
EUROPEAN AND A RELATIVELY SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER...GFS                   
SOLUTION. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS BRING HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE              
SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THU...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE               
CANADIAN AS WELL. THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE LAKES             
ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A SHALLOW RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS DRY.                      
THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE               
ECMWF BEING THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS DUE PRIMARILY             
TO THE GFS DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF            
OF ST. LAWRENCE WHICH SLOWS UP THE PATTERN...WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES             
NOT DEVELOP THIS IMPEDIMENT. AT ANY RATE...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE               
GFS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS THE UP ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG              
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE...NOW CENTERED OVER             
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING H85 TEMPS OF                       
22C...BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.               
THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING THE FROPA SAT/SUN...THE ECMWF HAS THE                 
TROF/FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWA BY 00Z MON FOR REASONS                    
DISCUSSED ABOVE WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS THE FRONT TO LINGER OVER THE               
EASTERN UP UNTIL EARLY MON MORNING. GOING WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE              
TWO SOLUTIONS...TAKING OUT THE FRONT SUN EVENING. BRINGING A CHANCE             
OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER WITH THE BETTER               
DYNAMICS APPEARING TO STAY NORTH IN CANADA...LITTLE PRECIP IS                   
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE UP MONDAY WITH THE                   
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR KEEPING DOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY POST                  
FRONTAL CONVECTION.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVY MIZ001-003 FROM THRU             
02Z TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOOD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
142 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
.THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...MSAS/RUC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND                       
INSTABILITY APPEAR GREATER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS AND               
SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST              
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
MODELS MAINTAIN A RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK WESTERLY              
FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. NO DISCONTINUITIES ALOFT APPEAR UNTIL A MINOR             
SHEAR AXIS...MAINLY DEPICTED BY THE GFS THU...BUT GEOPOTENTIAL                  
HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 594 AT 500 MB THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE AIRMASS              
REMAINS HUMID WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE 2.0 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE.             
RH FIELDS SHOW AN E-W AXIS OF HIGHER RH SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE               
AREA WED NGT-THU...BUT STILL HARDLY MORE THAN WHAT HAS BEEN DEPICTED            
BY MODELS IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.  THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS SHOWS                   
SOMEWHAT GREATER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THU AND THE NAM DEPICTS                  
GREATER CAPE >3000 J/KG THAT DAY AS WELL. POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE               
LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES 18-32 PERCENT FOR DIURNAL                
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TUE AND WED...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THU.              
MODEL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS IS 3-6M LESS TUE AND WED THAN TODAY (1321M            
@ GSO)...POSSIBLY HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO LESS THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.  PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS             
LOWS REMAINING IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA.                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED OVERALL. THE GFS...AND                 
CONSEQUENTLY HPC...BRINGS A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY LATE            
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO SIGNIFICANTLY RELIEVE US OF              
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF LATE...BUT HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES EVER SO            
SLIGHTLY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE LARGER                  
REFLECTION IS IN THE DEWPOINTS...WITH UPPER 60S PROGGED INSTEAD OF              
LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN             
CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF              
THE POTENTIAL FRONT. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX ALONG WITH A             
HINT OF JET ENERGY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR CHANCE POPS THROUGH             
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TO BE TWEAKED WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN            
LATER PERIODS. PICKED THE DIURNAL TREND UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS HIGH              
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN AGAIN. -TDP                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN ALL TAF SITES THIS                           
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE EAST.              
AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF THUNDER IN RWI AND FAY TAFS TIL 00Z.            
VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN BRIEFLY TO NEAR MVFR AT TAF LOCATIONS IN               
THE PREDAWN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AS WE FAIL TO DECOUPLE               
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AGAIN TONIGHT...SO                  
EXPECT NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS AGAIN IN THE 10Z TO 13Z TIME FRAME. -MLM            
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...TDP                                                                 
AVIATION...MLM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
321 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
WITH A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD                     
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL              
MI INTO WESTERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID              
TO UPPER 80S WHILE SFC DEW POINTS WERE IN THE LOW 70S.                          
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AT KTOL AND KAOH...NAM FCST SNDGS GIVE 50 MB               
AVE PARCEL CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY                
FARTHER SOUTH AT KILN AND KDAY.  IN FACT...THE APPROACHING LINE IS              
LESS CONTIGUOUS AS ONE MOVES SOUTH ALTHOUGH SEVERAL PARAMETERS STILL            
POINT TO SEVERE WX...PARTICULARLY MAX DELTA THETA E BLO 500                     
MB...SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT INTO              
THE EVENING.                                                                    
TONIGHT...THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT               
MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO                
LOWER 70S NW TO SE.                                                             
THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING              
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY               
TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF CWA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE                   
PERIOD.  WITH LINGERING FRONT AND A VORT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE             
SOUTHERN CWA...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH DURING               
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.  NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL                  
RETURN THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.                               
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO HPC FOR DAYS 4-7.  CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY             
AND WARM AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.                 
HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.  HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR             
FROM MEXMOS FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 124 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005)                                             
AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MI TO NEAR KSTL.                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MIXING OUT OVER TAF SITES WITH MORE              
ENHANCED CU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-71. KILN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION              
IN THIS CU FIELD AND IT IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST.                                
NAM AND RUC SHOWING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER TAF SITES                
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFT OVER NRN INDIANA. THE BEST LIFT IS                 
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER                
NRN INDIANA AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP                      
SOUTHWARD. TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION WITH BEST LIFT...WHICH FOR THE              
MOST PART IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 02Z AND POSSIBLY UPDATE. ONCE CONVECTION MOVES               
THROUGH THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE                
MIXING UP LATE IN FORECAST.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
124 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005                                                      
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN MI TO NEAR KSTL.                 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MIXING OUT OVER TAF SITES WITH MORE              
ENHANCED CU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF I-71. KILN SHOWING SOME CONVECTION              
IN THIS CU FIELD AND IT IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST.                                
NAM AND RUC SHOWING STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY OVER TAF SITES                
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP                
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFT OVER NRN INDIANA. THE BEST LIFT IS                 
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER                
NRN INDIANA AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP                      
SOUTHWARD. TRIED TO TIME CONVECTION WITH BEST LIFT...WHICH FOR THE              
MOST PART IS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                   
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE 02Z AND POSSIBLY UPDATE. ONCE CONVECTION MOVES               
THROUGH THEN MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE                
MIXING UP LATE IN FORECAST.                                                     
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1109 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER FA WITH A                  
COLD FROM WESTERN LOWER MI TO NEAR KSTL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING              
STRATA CU BEGINNING TO MIX OUT. MORNING ILN SOUNDING ALREADY                    
SHOWED NEARLY 1000 J/KG AT 12Z.                                                 
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REALLY GOOD. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING              
WORDING IN THE PORTSMOUTH AREA. LATEST NAM AND RUC SHOWING 3500 TO              
5000 J/KG THIS AFT/EVE ACROSS FA WITH NO CINH. BEST LIFT FOR FA                 
COMES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. HOWEVER WITH SUCH               
GOOD INSTABILITY THE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BUILD SOUTHWARD TO THE                
OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED                     
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH AT ANY TIME.                                          
CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. CONCERNED ABOUT HEAT INDICES THIS               
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOOK GOOD. THESE VALUES                 
GIVE BASICALLY 95 TO 100 HEAT INDICES. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY                
AND LIKELY ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT THREAT.                           
TIPTON                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 653 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005)                                             
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT TAF SITES              
WILL BE SPARED THIS MORNING...EXCEPT LCK MAY BE AFFECTED AND BEARS              
WATCHING.  AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH                    
CUMULONIMBUS AT ALL SITES.  AFTER AN EVENING LULL...THUNDERSTORMS               
WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM THE              
WEST. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE                      
THUNDERSTORMS.                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLO CONTINUING             
ACRS THE OH VLY WITH PW/S AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THIS IS AHD OF A                   
PROGRESSIVE S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS WHICH PUSHES THRU THE GREAT LAKES           
TNGT INTO TUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO OH OVERNIGHT              
INTO TUE AND THEN WASH OUT NEAR THE OH RIVER AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL             
TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.                                                   
GOOD INSTBY TO DEVELOP TDA IN MOIST AMS WITH CAPES OF 4000-4500                 
J/KG. AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHD OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONT                 
ALONG WITH INSTBY WL INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION TDA. THE BEST COVERAGE            
TO OCCUR OVER THE NW WHERE BEST DYNAMICS AND INSTBY EXPECTED. EXPECT            
TEMPS TO WARM UP AHD OF THE FRONT TDA AND BASED ON LOW LEVEL                    
THICKNESS AND 8H FCST SCHEMES HAVE GONE A LTL ABV MAV GUID NUMBERS.             
AS FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TNGT HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO LKLY                
CAT ACRS ALL BUT THE SE. MAX DELTA THETA E AROUND 30 THIS AFTN                  
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WL BE PSBL DURG AFTN INTO EVE HOURS                
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NW BUT WITH BEST DYNAMICS TO THE N...SHEAR IS               
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND INSTBY WEAKENS INTO THE EVE. SO EXPECT STRONG TO             
STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE ACRS FA TNGT.                                     
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SE INTO OH VLY TUE HAVE CONTINUED                
CHC POPS WITH THE BEST THREAT ACRS THE S. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF                
COOLING WITH DECAYING FRONT AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE A LTL WARMER THAN           
GUID NUMBERS FOR HI/S. HAVE KEPT A CHC/SLIGHT CHC ALONG AND SOUTH               
OF THE OH RIVER ON WED NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005               
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON            
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MAKES SLOW PROGRESS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A               
LINGERING CHANCE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE                
TAIL END OF THE FRONT WASHES OUT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.                           
HAVE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH HPC EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE NEXT             
SURFACE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT THERE              
IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THIS FEATURE AS MODELS              
SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH EACH RUN. HAVE LIMITED THE CHANCE OF                
PRECIPITATION TO FRIDAY AS IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED                
MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh