Emerging Infectious Diseases
[Volume 5 No.4 / July - August 1999]


Special Issue

Aum Shinrikyo: Once and Future Threat?

Kyle B. Olson
Research Planning, Inc., Arlington, Virginia, USA

On March 20, 1995, members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult entered
the Tokyo subway system and released sarin, a deadly nerve agent.
The subway attack was the most deadly assault in an ongoing
campaign of terror waged by this mysterious cult. Four years later,
with Aum Shinrikyo attempting to rebuild itself, many in Japan and
around the world are asking whether the "Supreme Truth Sect"
poses a current or future threat. Answering this question may
further our understanding, not only of the Aum but also of other
extremist and terrorist groups.

Aum Shinrikyo began its public campaign of terror on June 27,
1994. On that Monday in Matsumoto, a city of 300,000 population
322 kilometers northwest of Tokyo, a group of cult members drove
a converted refrigerator truck into a nondescript residential
neighborhood. Parking in a secluded parking lot behind a stand of
trees, they activated a computer-controlled system to release a
cloud of sarin. The nerve agent floated toward a cluster of private
homes, a mid-rise apartment building, town homes, and a small
dormitory.

This neighborhood was targeted for a specific reason. The
dormitory was the residence of all three judges sitting on a panel
hearing a lawsuit over a real-estate dispute in which Aum Shinrikyo
was the defendant. Cult lawyers had advised the sect's leadership
that the decision was likely to go against them. Unwilling to accept
a costly reversal, Aum responded by sending a team to Matsumoto
to guarantee that the judges did not hand down an adverse
judgment. A light breeze (3 to 5 knots) gently pushed the deadly
aerosol cloud of sarin into a courtyard formed by the buildings. The
deadly agent affected the inhabitants of many of the buildings,
entering through windows and doorways, left open to the warm
night air. Within a short time, seven people were dead. Five
hundred others were transported to local hospitals, where
approximately 200 would require at least one night's
hospitalization.

After successfully completing their mission, the cultists drove off to
Kamakuishki, a rural community at the foot of Mount Fuji, home to
golf courses, parks, dairy farms, small villages, and the
headquarters of Aum Shinrikyo in Japan. The cult's facilities
consisted of a number of motley buildings, factories, and
dormitories.

Aum Shinrikyo's next major act of violence would serve as a
wake-up call to the world regarding the prospects of weapons of
mass destruction and terrorism. On the morning of March 20, 1995,
packages were placed on five different trains in the Tokyo subway
system. The packages consisted of plastic bags filled with a
chemical mix and wrapped inside newspapers. Once placed on the
floor of the subway car, each bag was punctured with a sharpened
umbrella tip, and the material was allowed to spill onto the floor of
the subway car. As the liquid spread out and evaporated, vaporous
agent spread throughout the car.

Tokyo was experiencing a coordinated, simultaneous, multi-point
assault. The attack was carried out at virtually the same moment at
five different locations in the world's largest city: five trains, many
kilometers apart, all converging on the center of Tokyo. The
resulting deaths and injuries were spread throughout central Tokyo.
First reports came from the inner suburbs and then, very quickly,
cries for help began to flow in from one station after another,
forming a rapidly tightening ring around the station at
Kasumagaseki. This station serves the buildings that house most of
the key agencies of the Japanese government. Most of the major
ministries, as well as the national police agency, have their
headquarters at Kasumagaseki.

By the end of that day, 15 subway stations in the world's busiest
subway system had been affected. Of these, stations along the
Hbiya line were the most heavily affected, some with as many as
300 to 400 persons involved. The number injured in the attacks was
just under 3,800. Of those, nearly 1,000 actually required
hospitalizationsome for no more than a few hours, some for many
days. A very few are still hospitalized. And 12 people were dead.

Within 48 hours of the subway attack, police were carrying out
raids against Aum Shinrikyo facilities throughout Japan. Police
entered cult facilities carrying sophisticated detection systems and
wearing military-issued chemical gear (which was issued to the
Tokyo police the week before the subway attack).
 
The real target of the raids that began on March 17 was the
building known as Satyan 7, a supposed shrine to the Hindu god
Shiva, the most prominent figure in the Aum Shinrikyo religious
pantheon. In reality, the building housed a moderately large-scale
chemical weapons production facility, designed by cult engineers,
with first-rate equipment purchased over-the-counter.

Although the facility's design was crude by industry standards, it
was nonetheless very capable of producing the sarin used in the
Matsumoto attack. At the time of the Tokyo attack, however,
Satyan 7 was not in service, having been mothballed after an
accident during the previous summer. In an effort to get the plant
back into production, the cult had, during the fall of 1994,
unsuccessfully attempted to recruit Russian chemical-weapons
engineers. The cult was adept at recruiting educated professionals
(scientists and engineers), but most were young and largely
inexperienced. Satyan 7 was designed to produce sarin, not on a
small terrorist scale, but in nearly battlefield quantities: thousands of
kilograms a year.

Chemical weapons were not, however, the only option available to
the Aum. The first cult laboratory for toxin production was actually
in place by 1990 and was subsequently replaced with two new
laboratories, one at Kamakuishki and the other in Tokyo. Aum
dabbled in many different biological agents. They cultured and
experimented with botulin toxin, anthrax, cholera, and Q fever. In
1993, Ashahara led a group of 16 cult doctors and nurses to Zaire,
on a supposed medical mission. The actual purpose of the trip to
Central Africa was to learn as much as possible about and, ideally,
to bring back samples of Ebola virus. In early 1994, cult doctors
were quoted on Russian radio as discussing the possibility of using
Ebola as a biological weapon.

The cult attempted several apparently unsuccessful acts of
biological terrorism in Japan between 1990 and 1995. As early as
April 1990, the cult had tried to release botulin toxin from a vehicle
driving around the Diet and other government buildings in central
Tokyo. In early June of 1993, another attempt was made to release
botulin toxin, this time in conjunction with the wedding of the
crown prince. A vehicle equipped with a spray device was driven
around the imperial palace as well as the main government buildings
in central Tokyo.

Later that month, pursuing an alternative technology, the cult
attempted to release anthrax spores from its mid-rise Tokyo office
building laboratory. At that time, police and media reported foul
smells, brown steam, some pet deaths, and stains on cars and
sidewalks. Then, in March 1995, just before the sarin subway
attack, an attempt to spray botulin toxin in the subway at
Kasumagaseki Station was preempted by a cult member who opted
not to load the improvised briefcase sprayers with actual agent.

No injuries were reported in any of these biological events despite
the fact the cult was dealing with very toxic materials. The cult's
failures can be attributed to a variety of factors. The cult may not
have had the right agents or the right technologic facilities; they
could have overcooked the bioagents or not known how to use
them. While the cult was well financed, it was not very successful in
its efforts to recruit biological scientists. Still, the possibility exists
that casualties associated with some of these releases might have
not been detected or were attributed to other causes.

The cult's operations were worldwide, promoting a theology drawn
from different sources, including Buddhism, Christianity,
Shamanism, Hinduism, and New Age beliefs. Cult membership
around the world was likely 20,000 to 40,000. One cult leader
estimated the cult's net worth in March of 1995 at about $1.5
billion. The money was collected through donations, tithing, sales
of religious paraphernalia, videotape and book sales, and other
sources. The cult conducted seminars and hosted training courses
for members, offering indoctrination in Aum's teachings, charging
believers from hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars for
attending these sessions. Aum Shinrikyo also had a number of
commercial enterprises, even a company that manufactured
computers. Imported components from Taiwan were assembled in a
cult factory at Kamakuishki and sold in Aum's computer store in
downtown Tokyo. The cult also ran a chain of restaurants in Tokyo
and several other Japanese cities.

Another source of income was the practice of green mail. Aum
would threaten to establish a cult compound in a city and, if the city
fathers did not bribe them to go away, the cult would set up shop.
Several cities paid rather than have Aum establish operations there.
The cult manufactured illegal drugs and had a marketing agreement
with the Japanese Mafia (the Yakuza). In 1996, the Yakuza would
be found responsible for the assassination of the cult's lead scientist,
Dr. Hideo Murai, in the days following the Tokyo subway attack.
Concerned at his frequent televised appearances, the Yakuza
silenced him for fear that he would betray the linkage between the
two shadowy groups. Extortion, theft, and murder were also part of
the cult's fund-raising activities. Among the cult leaders,
"Doomsday guru" Shoko Ashahara is the undisputed head.
Ashahara (born Chizuo Matsumoto) had numerous exalted titles,
including venerated master, yogi, and holy pope. Highly
charismatic, this partially blind, apparently very talented yoga
instructor was very ambitious politically and financially. He and
more than 20 of his followers ran for Parliament in 1989. They
were defeated, which some Japanese analysts have suggested marks
the moment when the cult's leader elected to pursue weapons of
mass destruction and the violent overthrow of the established order.

Millennial visions and apocalyptic scenarios dominate the group's
doctrine, evidenced by the prominent role of Nostradamus as a
prophet in Aum Shinrikyo teaching. Ashahara has, on many
occasions, claimed to be the reincarnated Jesus Christ, as well as
the first "enlightened one" since the Buddha. He has frequently
preached about a coming Armageddon, which he describes as a
global conflict that would, among other things, destroy Japan with
nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. According to Ashahara,
only the followers of Aum Shinrikyo will survive this conflagration.

Another cult leader, Fumihiro Joyu, now 35 years old, was a bright
young engineer with the Japanese space program, specializing in
artificial intelligence. He left that organization to go to work for
Aum, where he very quickly rose through the ranks, ultimately to
head the cult's operations in Russia. Joyu oversaw this important
cult expansion, among other things "investing" as much as $12
million in the form of payoffs to well-placed officials. The cult's
investment paid off with expedited access to office buildings,
dormitories, and other facilities throughout Russia. At the time of
the Tokyo subway attack, the cult's principle venture in Russia was
the Moscow-Japan University, with headquarters in offices across
the street from the Bolshoi Ballet. Their senior Russian partner in
the university was a man by the name of Oleg Lobov, at that time
also chairman of Russia's National Security Council and a close
confidant of Boris Yeltsin.

Joyu was convicted of perjury after the subway investigation, but he
received an extremely light sentence (3 years) for his involvement in
the cult's activities. Joyu has apparently maintained close ties to the
cult, and he is slated for release toward the end of this year. After
leaving prison, he may make a play for leadership of the remaining
cult elements. He is the most charismatic member of the cult, other
than Ashahara. In the days right after the Tokyo subway attack, he
was on Japanese television so frequently, and featured in magazines
and newspapers so often, that he became a teen heartthrob.

In the days and weeks immediately following the gas attack, more
than 200 key members of the cult were arrested. Approximately
120 are still in jail, on trial, or have been convicted. Ashahara
himself has been on trial for 3 years. The trial may continue for 5 or
6 years, a judicial timetable that is aggressive by Japanese standards
in cases where the defendant refuses to cooperate with the
prosecution. Three cult members involved in the attack are still at
large. Russian operations were ended by legal action and the assets
seized by the government. The cult's legal status in Japan as a
church has been revoked, but many of its assets are unaccounted
for.

Today, Aum Shinrikyo is once again soliciting donations, collecting
tithes, selling materials to members, holding seminars, conducting
training, and selling computers. Active recruiting is under way.
Aum Shinrikyo is holding 50 "educational" seminars a month for
current and potential members. The cult has offices throughout
Japan, around Tokyo and other cities, and, according to Japanese
sources, they maintain 100 hide-outs throughout that country as
"safe houses." These sources estimate that at least 700 members are
live-in, fully committed devotees. Mind control is still a part of the
cult's package. Cult members can be seen in Aum-owned houses
wearing bizarre electric headsets, supposedly designed to
synchronize their brain waves with those of the cult's leader.

What is the message that these events to impart policy-makers? The
objective of the Tokyo subway attack was not irrational. The
objective that day was to kill as many policemen as possible; Aum
Shinrikyo had become aware of police plans to conduct raids
against cult facilities, beginning on March 20. The cult's timetable
could not permit that interruption.

Aum's actions were perfectly logical within the context of their
value system. They were a self-legitimized group that had rejected
and, ultimately, felt obliged to confront society. Outnumbered as
they were by Japanese police and military might, one can argue that
developing and even using an asymmetric capability was a logical
consequence of their situation. Unable to achieve their
objectivepolitical powerthrough legitimate means, they
determined that a preemptive strike was necessary.

Is Aum Shinrikyo a potential threat? Is Shoko Ashahara just the
first of many, or has he been relegated to the scrap heap? These are
open questions we will be forced to grapple with for many years to
come.

--------------------------------------------------------

      Mr. Olson is adviser, consultant, and writer on high-technology
terrorism, the threat of chemical and biological weapons, and the
practical challenges of arms control; member of the Central
Intelligence's Nonproliferation Advisory Panel; guest lecturer on
chemical and biological weapons terrorism at the Defense Nuclear
Weapons School, Air War College, Naval War College, and U.S.
Air Force Special Operations School, and an adjunct faculty
member at George Washington University.

Address for correspondence: Kyle B. Olson, Research Planning,
Inc., 6400 Arlington Blvd., Suite 1100, Arlington, VA 22042,
USA; fax: 703-237-8085; e-mail: kolson@rpihq.com.

  
Emerging Infectious Diseases
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Atlanta, GA

URL: ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/EID/vol5no4/ascii/olson.txt

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