AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1030 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2000                                                     
FOG LOOPS SHOW LOW CLOUDS COVERING ALL OF NORTHERN LOWER...EXTENDING OUT        
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN TO AROUND GULL ISLAND...AS WELL AS ACROSS MACKINAC AND       
EASTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES.  HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT          
WAVE ALSO SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE.  PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL         
BE CLOUD COVER AND FOG POTENTIAL.  00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOW A GOOD DEAL        
OF DRIER AIR OFF TO THE WEST...AND 12Z MODELS/LATEST RUC CONTINUING TO          
VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN UPPER          
AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES.  THIS WOULD IMPLY A DECREASE IN CLOUD         
COVER ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT AN INCREASE IN FOG POTENTIAL           
WITH ALREADY LOW TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.           
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WITH           
AN ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY WITH 40+ DEGREE DEW POINTS CREEPING NORTH          
ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER/SOUTHEAST WI.  WILL MENTION CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS          
ALL AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF M-32...WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOUTHERN        
ZONES.  MOISTURE NOT EXTENDING TO ANY GREAT DEPTHS/COLD TEMPERATURES...         
AND WITHOUT MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO TAP ELEVATED INSTABILITY IMPLIED BY          
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN AREA RAOBS...MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION              
LOOKS UNLIKELY OVERNIGHT.  GOING TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY GOOD...WITH           
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                                 
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 0345Z.                                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                     
...DISSIPATING FG/LOW CLDS AND MAX TEMPS ARE UPDATE ISSUES...                   
AREAS OF FOG...EXTENT OF MIXING...AND EVEN WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL                
IMPACT UNSEASONABLY MILD MAXIMUM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MONITORING               
EVOLUTION OF FOG AREAS ON VIS IMAGERY OVER W AND E UPR MI. 06Z                  
MESOETA 925MB RH FIELD HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES AND            
ADVECTS HIGHER RH NE OVER KEEWENAW WHILE MAINTAINING VALUES ABV 75              
PERCENT EAST AN MQT-IMT LINE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC DEPICTS H95                    
WINDSPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15-25KT THIS AFT WHICH WILL AID MIXING                
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...SO DO EXPECT EROSION FOG FROM W PERHIPERY IN            
E MQT/DICKINSON COUNTIES. DOWSLOPING SHOULD ALSO AID IN ADVECTING               
FOG OFFSHORE IN W ZONES. 12Z GRB RAOB DEPICTED +10C AT TOP OF 920MB             
INVERSION..WHICH GIVEN FULL SUN WOULD YIELD MAX SFC TEMPS ABV 60F.              
HOWEVER W/ RUC DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS 1-4C (COOLEST NE) OVER UPR MI               
AND UPSTREAM AC/CI APPROACHING FROM MN/WI..AND SNOWCOVER..50F SEEMS             
REASONABLE FOR INLAND LOCALES WEST OF SAW-IMT LINE. ONSHORE FLOW                
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM MNM-ESC-P75/ISQ (AIDED BY LAND-LAKE              
TEMP DIFFERENTIAL) KEEPING LAKESIDE TEMPS NR 40. EVEN REMAINING                 
SUPERIOR LAKESIDE LOCALES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE WEAK LAKE BREEZE AS            
LAND-LAKE DELTA T'S APPROACH 10C AND H95 15-20KT WINDSPEEDS IMPLYING            
LAKEBREEZE MAY EXTEND INLAND 1-3SM. WILL FRESHEN WORDING TO REFLECT             
LATEST FOG/CLDS TRENDS AND TWEAK TEMPS UP A BIT FOR SOME CENTRAL                
LOCALS.                                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1045 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                     
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DROP THE MENTION OF MORNING FOG ACROSS              
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                         
MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT BREAKS HAVE OPENED UP IN CLOUDS OVER WESTERN            
COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA AND UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO            
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LATEST RUC               
AND 12Z ETA SUGGEST A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT            
950-850 MB...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE LOOPS.                
850 MB TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN LOW UPSTREAM PER 12Z                        
ANALYSIS...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE IN THE 285-295K                    
LAYER...SO ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION               
TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL STILL GO WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY COVER                 
FORECAST (PARTLY SUNNY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY) FOR ALL AREAS THIS                   
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DUE TO INCREASED SUNSHINE...WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT                
EVERYWHERE.                                                                     
FINALLY...SURFACE GRADIENT FAVORS SOME ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW                
ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL INDICATE COOLER NEAR LAKE (AROUND                
40/LOWER 40S) IN COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN (AND FOR CHIPPEWA             
COUNTY ALONG LAKE HURON). ALONG THE REST OF LAKE HURON...950 MB                 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO STRONG FROM SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT              
ONSHORE FLOW.                                                                   
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
745 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPANDED TO ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...                       
WILL UPDATE NPW/ZFP SHORTLY TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES IN A DENSE FOG                 
ADVISORY. SEVERAL TRENDS THIS EVENING POINT TO FOG FORMATION.                   
SEVERAL STATIONS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ALREADY REPORTING            
<1/4SM FG. WARM FRONT ACRS SRN MN NR SRN EDGE OF SNOW COVER...AND               
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE BECOME CONVERGENT ALONG THIS FEATURE.                 
LATEST RUC CONTINUE TREND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SRN                
MN/WRN WI OVERNIGHT. FINALLY...DEWPOINTS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO                
FCST AREA ARE HIGHER THAN CURRENT AIR TEMPS/GROUND TEMP OVER FCST               
AREA. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT VSBYS TO COME BACK UP AS RAIN MOVES                
INTO SRN CWA LATE. THX TO LSE FOR COORD.                                        
.MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT ENTIRE MPX FCST AREA                          
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
945 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOG LIFTING AND AFTERNOON TEMPS. VISIBILITIES             
STILL DOWN BUT SOME HINT OF COMING UP IN LATEST OBS. PROBLEM IS SOME            
HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA. RUC IS PICKING UP THIS UP IN HIGHER LEVEL RH             
AND SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST OVER AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.              
WILL NOT CARRY ADVISORY INTO AFTERNOON BUT ISSUE UPDATED SHORT TERM.            
FOG WILL LIFT FASTER DURING AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS THIN. CURRENT              
FORECAST TEMPS SEEM OK BUT MAY DROP A BIT CENTRAL..AND RAISE IN SW.             
RUC SURFACE TEMPS OF UPPER 50S IN SW NOT BAD AND COULD BE                       
CONSERVATIVE.                                                                   
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
955 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
TEMPS IN A COUPLE AREAS IN NE ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER THAN                    
EARLIER ANTICIPATED. CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AND NEARLY            
STEADY DEW POINTS SHOULD OTHERWISE KEEP FORECAST ON TRACK. THAT                 
SAID...MORE SIGINIFICANT CONCERN IS FOR FOG IN EASTERN COUNTIES                 
TONIGHT. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC RH AT OR APPOACHING SATURATION. ETH            
AND VVV AS WELL AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN COUNTIES BORDERING TRAVERSE             
AND BIG STONE COUNTIES TO THE EAST ALREADY REPORTING VISIBILITIES AROUND        
3SM. RUC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON YET THOUGH...AS AREAS NOW              
FOGGING IN STILL DEPICTED AS HAVING GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 PERCENT              
SFC RH AND FCST SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH            
THE NIGHT. BELIEVE PERSISTENCE IS A FAR BETTER FCST TOOL THAN SHORT             
RANGE MODELS TONIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR OUR MN             
COUNTIES AS IS...THOUGH OUR COUNTIES BORDERING TO THE WEST BEAR                 
CLOSE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONS TO THE ADVISORY LATER.                    
.ABR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MN TNT.                
LORENS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
913 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TO THE EAST OF NEW ENG TONITE AS A            
STORM SYS TRACKS ACRS CENTRAL CANADA. WK CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE               
GREAT LKS REGION ON WED. FA TO BE LEFT IN W-SW FLOW IN BETWEEN                  
THESE TWO SYSTEMS.                                                              
FA TO BE UNDER WK H85 WAA (WITH MAX OCCURRING IN CANADA TO THE WEST             
AND EAST OF THE FA) THRU 00Z THU. H85 MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACRS                 
NORTHERN NY BY 12Z WED AND THEREAFTER ACRS THE REST OF THE FA. H85              
TEMPS AND 925 MB WET-BULB TEMPS WARM ENUFF TO INDICATE THAT AREAS               
THAT WILL BE RECEIVING PCPN FIRST SHUD SEE RA. UNFORTUNATELY...NO               
40KM RUC DATA OR BUFKIT DATA AVAILABLE FOR P-TYPE ANALYSIS HERE AT              
BTV DUE TO LOCAL COMPUTER PROBLEMS. MAY HAVE TO ADD MENTION OF SPOTTY           
FZRA IN ST LAW VLY BY MORNING AT THE LAST MIN.                                  
BUFCAN SHOWS AREA OF PCPN PASSING THROUGH YOW RVR VLY ATTM...MOST OF            
THIS PCPN TO PASS HARMLESSLY BY THRU CANADA WITH MAYBE A FEW                    
SPRINKLES ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES. MAY USE THE STF TO COVER ANY               
SIGNIFICANT PCPN IF THINGS GET ANY WORSE THAN THAT.                             
HAVE ADJUSTED OVRNITE LOW TEMPS AND CLD-COVER BASED ON LATEST OBS               
TRENDS. H85 JET MAX TO PASS BY TO THE NORTH IN CANADA OVRNITE...SO              
NOT TOO CONVINCED OF STRONGER WINDS OVRNITE...BUT HAVE KEPT IN                  
WORDING OF HIR GUSTS FOR NOW.                                                   
UPR LVL DYNAMIX TO PASS BY MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FA ON WED.                
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WED LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONLY A FEW COSMETIC            
CHANGES.                                                                        
HYDRO-WISE...EVERYTHING LOOKS OK FOR NOW WITH MOST RIVERS AT OR                 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AFTER TODAY/S SNOWMELT. WILL CONTINUE TO                  
MONITOR.                                                                        
WORK ZONES GONE. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP DATA.            
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1107 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                     
SKY COVER CHGS PRIMARY CONCERN FOR MRNG UPDATE.  16Z SFC ANLYS                  
PLACES SLOW MOVG FNTL SYS THRU CNTRL NE WITH LOW LVL MSTR STREAMING             
NWD.  DWPNTS ALREADY INTO MID 50S OVR EXTRM SWRN IA.  LOW CLDS ALSO             
MAKING RAPID MOVMT NWD WITH ST TO KADU-KDSM-KOTM LN.  925MB PROFILER            
INDCS LOW LVL FLOW OF 35-40KTS FM ERN KS INTO NRN MO.  CLDS OF                  
VARIOUS HGHTS SHOULD OVERSPREAD RMNDR OF FA THIS AFTN SO WENT MSTLY             
CLDY OR BCMG MSTLY CLDY.                                                        
SUN AND MIXING WILL NOT BE MUCH HELP FOR TEMPS TDA.  WL LIKELY KEEP             
DECENT INVERSION IN PLACE SO READINGS SHOULD NOT SKY ROCKET.  HWVR              
LOW LVL MSTR ADVCTN SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE TEMPS ARND 10               
DEGREES SO HAD TO UP HIGHS A BIT IN SOME ZNS.                                   
CANNOT REALLY FIND MUCH FORCING FOR LATE AFTN SHWRS PER 12Z RUC OR              
LOOK AT CURRENT WX...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSIFY PULLING A         
LOW 30 POP SO LEFT IN SRN SXNS.                                                 
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
1105 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000                                                     
CLOUDS OVER ALABAMA APPEAR TO DRY UP AS THEY PUSH INTO UPPER RIDGE              
OVER N GA. LATEST RUC TIME CROSS SECTION NOT PROGGING AN INCREASE IN            
MOISTURE OVER THAT PART OF STATE EITHER. WILL ADJUST TWEAK ZONES TO             
JUST PARTLY CLOUDY IN NORTH. OTHERWISE ZONES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK              
WITH TEMP AND WINDS...SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IF ANY THAT AREA.                    
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
DH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
955 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
12Z MODEL ANALYSIS PAINTING A BLEAKER PICTURE OF RAIN CHANCES ONCE              
AGAIN. MOISTENING AND COOLING OF 850 TO 700 MB LAYER REQUIRED FOR               
CONVECTION. PROGRESSIVE AVN IN SYNC MORESO WITH RUC THAN ETA                    
REGARDING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THIS LEVEL. ANY TRANSIENT COOLING             
DURING AFTERNOON THIS LAYER SHOWN TO REVERSE BY EVENING. ASIDE FROM             
THIS...STEEP LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON OUN MORNING SOUNDING AND                    
BELIEVE THIS MID LEVEL COOLING TRANSLATE EAST AND MAY AFFECT FAR                
ENOUGH SOUTH TO CATCH ARKANSAS PORTIONS WHERE WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT              
POP ENHANCEMENT. LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW                  
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP. PRUDENTLY                 
LEAVE AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED FOR EVERYONE THIS AFTERNOON BUT                 
STINGY FOR THIS EVENING. WILL CLEAN UP WORDING ON ZONES OF MENTIONS             
OF THIS MORNING AND MAY ADJUST WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS               
TO BE RELAXING TO THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS RATHER CONSISTENT IN LOWER               
60S AT MID MORNING AND VARIABLE CLOUDS COULD MAKE FIDDLING WITH                 
THESE TRICKY.                                                                   
VII                                                                             
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
IV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000                                                     
FORECAST PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE DENSE FOG/POPS/TEMPS ACROSS                
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND CLOUDS/POPS/TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER            
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
VISIBILITY HAS STARTED TO INCREASE AT SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN             
UP. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY              
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISCONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT             
FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME.                                                         
MEANWHILE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST             
AREA. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT AND              
DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...12Z KAPX 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE WAS                
ALMOST 8C/KM. HOWEVER...12Z KAPX SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY...AND PER               
88-D CROSS SECTIONS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOT REACHING THE              
GROUND. HOWEVER...RADAR RETURNS HAD INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 30              
MINUTES.                                                                        
FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS WERE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN                      
WISCONSIN/WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE MOISTURE WAS SOMEWHAT DEEPER              
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WAS EVIDENT ON 12Z UPPER AIR                     
ANALYSIS. THESE SHOWERS WERE HEADED TOWARD THE EASTERN UP.                      
12Z ETA/RUC DATA SUGGEST THAT MOIST AXIS WILL LIFT TOWARD NORTHERN              
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PER RADAR TRENDS AND              
MODEL FORECASTS...WILL ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD              
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL             
LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY 0Z...CANNOT RULE               
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ANYWHERE WITHIN MOIST AXIS...AND WILL ADD               
MENTION OF THUNDER AS WELL.                                                     
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL CARRY EARLY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.             
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE                
ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S...              
MOST LIKELY BELOW RECORD HIGHS.                                                 
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
336 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHEN TO END PRECIP/CLOUDS...                           
06Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD ONE LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE WITH ANOTHER...                
LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTION...IN C KS. FOG WAS PRETTY THICK INITIALLY              
HERE AT LBF AT 06Z...BUT INCREASING LIFT AND EVENTUALLY CONVECTION              
HAS HELPED TO STIR THINGS UP A BIT. RADAR ECHOES HAVE INCREASED                 
ACROSS SW NEBR INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN               
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS                 
THIS AREA AS INDICATED BY THE RUC. HOWEVER...ANY RAINFALL IS LIGHT              
FOR THE MOST PART AS ATMOSPHERE NEEDS TO SATURATE A BIT MORE. FOG N             
NERN CWA SHOULD LAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...BUT SHOULD LIFT SOME AS             
CONVECTION NEARS.                                                               
IN THE BIG PICTURE...MODELS NOT TOO DIFFERENT WITH MAIN FEATURES.               
ALL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FILLING WITH             
TIME AS THE SYSTEM MATURES AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE              
BACK SIDE WANES AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. ETA/AVN SEEM TO SHOW THE                
MATURING PROCESS A LITTLE BETTER THRU 24 HRS...FORMING A CLASSIC                
T-BONE SHAPE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. NEXT SYSTEM STILL OFF             
THE WEST COAST HANDLED SIMILARLY AS WELL...BUT NGM/AVN MAINTAIN A               
TIGHTER THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT BY 48 HRS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.              
FOR TODAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA                
THIS MORNING WITH THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL AND           
NORTHEAST NEBR DURING THE DAY AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND                     
ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION ZONE LIFTS NE. WITH LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500           
MB LAYER FAIRLY STEEP...WILL CONTINUE TO WORD AS SHOWERS. BELIEVE               
THAT NW OF A LINE FROM ANW-MHN-SNY OR SO WONT SEE MUCH WITH BEST                
FORCING IN ERN HALF OF CWA...HOWEVER...STILL FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES           
ACROSS THE NWRN CWA. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NW DURING THE                
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE ERN CWA FOR THE DAY. LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS AS WELL IN THE E TONIGHT AND IF PRECIP HAS               
CREATED WET GROUND...FOG SHOULD BE EASY. FOR TEMPS...LIKE THE FWC               
GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART WHICH IS COOLER AND MAKES SENSE WITH                 
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY.                                                     
FOR THURSDAY...MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS WARM AIR             
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT GET GOING AHEAD OF NEXT OPEN WAVE TO                  
SLIDE THRU THE AREA FRI. ETA/AVN INDICATE LIFTED INDICES < 0 BY 00Z             
FRI WHICH IS EVIDENT BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. AGREE WITH SPC ON THE                
ELEVATED CONVECTION ISSUE BY LATE EVENING...HOWEVER IF SLOWER ETA               
VERIFIES THAT AREA MAY BE SHIFTED BACK TWD SW NEBR...WHICH I THINK              
COULD HAPPEN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE QUESTION. WILL              
ADD THUR NIGHT PERIOD TO EXTENDED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL ACTUALLY            
TREND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THE SW FOR TEMPS THU                     
THINKING THAT CLOUD COVER WON/T BE AS EXTENSIVE AS NGM THINKS.                  
FOR THE EXTENDED...GOING EXTENDED LOOKS OK...EXCEPT MAY SPLIT SAT               
FROM SUN TO GO WITH LOWER MAXES ON SAT. SUN LOOKS QUITE WARM.                   
.LBF..NONE.                                                                     
JWS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
822 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
HI PRES ONCE AGAIN CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLC CST...RIDGING SWWD            
THRU THE SERN STATES. LTST STLT SHOWING SUM CU WELL OFF THE CST AND             
SUM AC OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS DISSIPATING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE SE.               
SKIES SHUD REMAIN M/CLR OVN AND WL WORD FCST THAT WAY. TEMPS ARE                
ANOTHER CONCERN. EVE DEWPTS RANGE FM LOW 30S WELL INLAND TO LOW                 
40S CST WITH RESIDUAL SEABREEZE BOUNDARY. EXPECT LO TEMPS TNGT                  
SIMILAR OR JUST ABOVE READINGS FROM LAST 2 NIGHTS WITH CLR SKIES/LGT            
WINDS. WL TAKE LOWS DOWN TO 30-35 WELL INLAND TO 40-45 CST. WINDS 5             
MPH OR LESS.                                                                    
CWF: DECENT FETCH OVER THE WATERS BUT LOWER WIND SPEEDS CLOSER TO               
SHORE PRECLUDING SIGNIFICANT WIND WAVE DEVELOPMENT. RUC INDICATES               
LITTLE CHANGE TO COASTAL GRADIENT AND BLYR FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH                  
BROAD...POORLY DEFINED COASTAL TROF REMAINING OFFSHORE. PLAN TO                 
CONTINUE SCA FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS GIVEN A 6 FT SEA HEIGHT                
REPORTED AT TOWER E OF GRAYS REEF. ELSEWHERE...SCEC SEEMS APPROPRIATE           
WITH NE WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.                                    
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND 20 TO 60 NM.               
TJR/RVT                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
845 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2000                                                      
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING LOW/MID DECK CONTG TO SPREAD SEWD INTO THE              
AREA COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL VEERING(WAA) INTO NW FLOW ALOFT.             
OTHER THAN FOR THE FAR SW...EARLIER SPRINKLES ALL BUT GONE AND GIVEN            
BLYR DRY AIR SEEN IN AREA RAOBS THIS EVE MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE                  
MENTION IN MOST ZONES OVRNGT. OTRW APRS MSTLY/PRTLY CLDY SKIES TO CONT          
WITH AFFECTS ON TEMPS THE MAIN QUEST GIVEN LOCAL SCHEMES INDICATING             
SOME SPOTS REMAINING ABOVE 40 IF CLOUDS HOLD. THIS ESPCLY TRUE OVER             
THE FAR WRN RIDGES WHERE THE MESO-ETA/RUC SHOW DEEPER LOW LVL RH                
HANGING INTO EARLY WED...SO PLAN TO INCREASE OR RANGE TEMPS A BIT               
THERE. ELSW...TEMPS A BIT MORE TRICKY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EWD WHERE             
MODELS INDICATE SOME PTNL FOR BREAKS TO DVLP LATER ON. WILL LKLY                
BOOST LOWS UP A NOTCH OR SO...BUT WITH DEWPTS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S            
MAY STILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE 30S TWD MORN ERN ZONES.                    
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
10                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR COUNTIES IN DENSE FOG ADV              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
320 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT            
COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG WITH THE DENSE FOG FOR THIS MORNING.                       
THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT SEEMS TO SNAKE FROM THE LOW ALONG THE               
THE 40 DEGREE DEWPOINT CONTOUR...WINDING THROUGH CENTRAL                        
NEB...ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...AND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL WI.                      
00Z MODEL RUNS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS TIME AROUND...WITHIN THE LAST             
COUPLE MODEL RUNS AND IN COMPARISON WITH EACH OTHER. WILL STICK WITH            
THE ETA SOLUTION FOR THE FINER DETAILS.                                         
DYNAMICS DON/T APPEAR AS GOOD AS THEY DID YESTERDAY FOR TODAY/S RAIN            
EVENT. SOME QG CONVERGENCE STILL INDICATED...BUT WEAKER...AND THE               
BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STAYS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                    
HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD THETA-E CONVERGENCE ALONG 700 MB FROM 12Z               
THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 310 K             
SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FILL AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE                 
PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE FEATURE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. SOME                 
LIFT FROM THE WAVE CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN          
IA INTO SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN ILL. MOISTURE WON/T BE A PROBLEM...WITH            
AMPLE AMOUNTS INDICATED BY THE RH FIELDS AND TIME/X-SECTIONS.                   
SURFACE BASED PW/S ALSO AROUND .75 TO 1.00 INCH THROUGH THURSDAY                
EVENING. SOME MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST                        
AREA...MAINLY TO POINTS WEST. THE NCEP DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION SUPPORTS            
THIS. SOME INDICATION OF DRYING IN THE MID LAYERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON            
FOR THE EASTERN CUTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED PCPN.                 
ALSO...CURRENT RUC MODEL KEEPS PCPN OVER THE WESTERN ZONE CUTS                  
THROUGH 18Z...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.         
ETA QPF FIELDS DUE ALLUDE TO THIS. WILL CUT BACK ON POPS FOR EASTERN            
CUTS TODAY AS A RESULT. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS AREA/S RAIN...                      
THOUGH...WILL BE THE DEFORMATION AREA AND WARM FRONT. VERTICAL                  
VELOCITIES //USING THE OMEGA FIELDS// PEG OUT FROM 12Z TO ABOUT 06Z             
THURSDAY. WOULD EXPECT THE PCPN TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE                 
EVENING...TAPERING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN FORCING SHIFTS                
NORTH. QPF FIELDS SHOW THIS PRETTY WELL. THUNDER CHANCES DON/T LOOK             
THAT GOOD ANYMORE EITHER...WITH 850:500 MB LAPSE RATES DECREASING               
THROUGH THE DAY AND THE WEAKER FORCING. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE                
LATEST LIGHTNING INDICATOR EITHER.                                              
WITH FOG STILL AROUND 1/4 MILE IN MANY LOCATIONS...WILL KEEP THE                
DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST ZONE                     
CONFIGURATIONS THOUGH TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS...ELIMINATING SOME                  
COUNTIES BASES ON CURRENT VSBYS (ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST).                    
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HASN/T PERFORMED THAT BAD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF            
DAYS...JUST A BIT TOO WARM. FAN CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THEN THE                 
FWC...AND WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE FWC...JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER.            
COORDINATED WITH DMX...MPX...MKX.                                               
.LSE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING...                                       
       MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-041-IAZ008-009.                
RIECK                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EST WED FEB 23 2000                                                     
KLWX RADAR SHOWING A DYING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM FDK TO IAD TO             
CJR. KPBZ RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN PA. 700 MB AND 500 MB PROGS FROM 06Z ETA AND 12Z RUC                   
SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... EXPECTED TO                
MOVE EAST OF US SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.  PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES AS IT              
MOVES INTO SURFACE RIDGE... SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TO REACH THE              
GROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF DCA/BWI.  WILL ADD A FEW SPRINKLES              
OR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF               
THE CITIES.                                                                     
VIS LOOP SHOWING ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN               
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT THAT A FEW MORE                
BREAKS WILL SHOW UP AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST... BUT WILL             
BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WILL            
GO WITH EITHER A PARTLY CLOUDY OR A VARIABLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE            
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN SUN TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ALREADY.              
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES AREA STILL DOWN IN THE                 
LOWER 40S. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ASSUMING GOOD              
MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO RAISE TEMPS FOR THE                   
WESTERN 1/3 OF AREA AS CURRENT TEMPS ARE APPROACHING FORECAST MAX.              
WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE TEMPS AS IS ELSEWHERE.. AND HOPE THAT SUN                 
DOESN'T TAKE OVER.                                                              
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
400 PM EST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
CONVECTIVE LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST IN AND            
NORTHWEST OH NOW. AM CONCERNED THAT THIS AREA COULD KICK OUT SOME               
SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS             
IS OFFERED BY 18Z RUC THETA-E ADVECTION PATTERN. ALTHOUGH BY NO                 
MEANS DEFINITIVE...THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT TO                
KICK OUT A LIGHT SHOWER. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ZONES.                     
OTHERWISE...IR LOOP AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATING MAINLY MID AND               
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH OF CWA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED BREAKS. EXPECT            
THESE CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE EVENING...OFFERING                   
CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY SKIES. ETA SHOWS BEST THETA-E ADVECTION TO BE               
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTH ON THURSDAY. WILL               
CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT...SHADING FROM HIGH                 
CHANCE SOUTH TO LOW CHANCE NORTH. LOOKING AT TSRA POTENTIAL FOR                 
OVERNIGHT...AXIS OF BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY /850MB LI/ REMAINS                
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CWA. SO WILL NOT CARRY MENTION OF TSRA FOR                   
OVERNIGHT. FWC/FAN TEMPS ACCEPTED.                                              
TOMORROW...NGM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING OUT QPF/S OF 3/4 TO 1              
INCH ACROSS CWA...WHILE ETA OFFERS ONLY ABOUT 0.15 INCH. PW/S ON                
BOTH MODELS APPROACH 1 INCH...CERTAINLY HEALTHY FOR LATE FEBRUARY.              
CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE NGM PRECIP IS BROAD AREA OF HIGH MEAN                     
RH...COVERING NEARLY ENTIRE LOWER MI...AND STRONG UVV. HIGHER MEAN              
RH MAY BE RESULT OF STRONGER GULF CONNECTION ON NGM THAN ETA PER                
ANALYSIS OF 295K SURFACE. LOOKING AT UVV FORCING...ISENTROPIC                   
ASCENT...VORT ADVECTION AND TEMP ADVECTION...NGM LOOKS TO BE                    
OVERDONE. AVN UVV FIELD INTERMEDIATE TO ETA AND NGM WITH UVVS AROUND            
5 MB/SEC...AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. SO GIVEN MOISTURE AND                     
LIFT...EXPECT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT AS INDICATED BY FAN AND FWC.                
QPFS LIKELY TO BE MORE THAN 0.15 OFFERED ON ETA WITH 6 KM ETA                   
SUGGESTING HALF INCH REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN                
FORECAST. WITH MODEL CAPE NIL AND SURFACE LI/S IN POSITIVE TERRITORY            
NOT MUCH TO RECOMMEND TSRA. HOWEVER...AXIS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY              
/ALBEIT WEAK/ DOES TRAVERSE CWA DURING THE DAY. HENCE SUFFICIENT                
JUSTIFICATION TO LEAVE IN RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FWC/FAN/2-M TEMPS AWAY             
FROM LAKESHORE LOOK GOOD. BUT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO                    
TRANSPORT ICE CHILLED LAKE AIR INLAND...WILL ADD THE TYPICAL COOLER             
NEAR THE LAKE TO ALL LAKESHORE /HURON...ST CLAIR...AND ERIE/                    
COUNTIES.                                                                       
TOMORROW NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO CROSS CWA DURING THE EARLY            
EVENING...KEEPING CHANCE OF POPS IN FOR SOUTHERN ZONES AND LIKELY               
POPS TO THE NORTH. MODELS NOT OPTIMISTIC IN OFFERING CLEARING                   
POTENTIAL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY SHOULD WORK. WITH               
SURFACE TD DEPRESSIONS BASICALLY NIL...WILL ADD MENTION OF AREAS OF             
FOG. PREFER SLIGHTLY WARMER FWC/2-M ETA TEMPS TO COOLER FAN WITH                
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO HANG IN.                                                     
FRIDAY...FWC AND FAN POPS IN THE 40S...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH             
FORCING SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 40 POPS. WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING                
WARM AND SOUPY...A SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SO WILL GO               
WITH 30 PERCENT POPS. TYPICALLY WITH FAN TEMPS EXCEEDING FWC                    
TEMPS...SUCH AS THEY WILL BE...THAT/S A GREEN LIGHT TO GO ABOVE FWC             
TEMPS. WAA ADVECTION WILL BE KICKING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL            
NUDGE TEMPS UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WARMER FAN NUMBERS...WITH CLOUD                
COVER HOLDING ME BACK FROM MORE AGGRESSIVE TEMP INCREASE.                       
IN THE EXTENDED...                                                              
EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS...AND               
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. MRF AND ETA-XX IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH              
FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE CANADIAN DIVERGES TOWARD END OF PERIOD.                 
STRONG WAA ADVECTION...TAPPING GULF MOISTURE ON 50 KNOT 850 MB WIND             
SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY POPS                    
SATURDAY.                                                                       
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES CWA ON SUNDAY...KICKING OFF                
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW...BUT              
1000-850 MB INDICATE RAIN WITH LOWEST LAYERS REMAINING WARM.                    
MODELS DEPART BEYOND SUNDAY AS CANADIAN PUSHES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH               
TOWARD CWA...WHILE MRF AND ETA-XX KEEP REGION UNDER INFLUENCE OF                
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. PREFER PERSISTENT PATTERN OF MRF AND             
ETA-XX BUILDING RIDGE IN AT SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR MONDAY SETTING                
STAGE FOR DRY DAY. AS HIGH PULLS OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...GULF              
OPENS UP AND WAA PATTERN PUMPS PROGRESSIVELY MOIST AIR INTO CWA. LOW            
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKS ACROSS CWA ON                 
WEDNESDAY. WITH WARM FRONT PROGGED TO THE NORTH OF CWA...ALL                    
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. GIVEN EXTENDED NATURE OF FORECAST WILL            
CARRY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH            
THE PERIOD TO REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.                             
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
320 PM CST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
SYNOPSIS: WARM AND WINDY SPRING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FIRM            
GRIP ON THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE 500 MB LOW IN THE                 
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST AND FILL AS IT              
MOVES INTO IOWA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL WEST OF THE            
FA AS THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES INTO IOWA AND DISSIPATES. ANOTHER              
STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND               
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON                
THURSDAY AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY. A                   
SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL            
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL             
SYSTEM...WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH A CHANCE OF                
RAIN IN EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.                
THE NGM...AVN...AND ETA ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY             
AT 12Z FOR THE NEXT DEVELOPING 500 MB LOW, BUT THE ETA PREDICTS A               
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW THAN THE THE NGM AND AVN MODELS. THE STRONGER               
500 MB LOW FORECAST BY THE NGM AND AVN MODELS IS THE FAVORED                    
SOLUTION SINCE THE ETA HAS TENDED TO BE TOO WEAK FOR THE 500 MB LOW             
FORECAST IN RECENT SIMILAR SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS.                             
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE 19Z FORECAST RUC SOUNDING FOR NORTHWESTERN              
PORTIONS OF THE FA(WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATION FOR HIGHER LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE) STILL SHOWS 0-3 KM HELICITY AND CAPE COMBINATION THAT IS              
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE SUPERCELLS. (FORECAST VALUES OF 339 M2/S2 AND              
1246 J/KG RESPECTIVELY) HOWEVER...NO STRONG "TRIGGER" IS AVAILABLE              
IN OUR FORECAST AREA TO GET THE STORMS GOING THIS EVENING. THE                  
CLOSEST CONVECTION TO OUR FA AS OF 300 PM LOCAL IS IN NORTH CENTRAL             
LOUISIANA AND IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI                  
RIVER. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENING IN EXTREME                 
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND WILL LEAVE POPS OUT FOR TONIGHT EVERYWHERE               
ELSE.                                                                           
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE               
BETWEEN HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND THE NEXT SURFACE LOW              
THAT WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN               
UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS            
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S            
AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS.                                         
QPF DISCUSSION: WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN             
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING DO NOT EXPECT HIGH ENOUGH BASIN                 
AVERAGE PRECIP FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF.                                             
IN THE EXTENDED...SOUTHERN PORTION OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD             
PUSH ACROSS THE FA ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF                 
RAIN. EXPECT ONLY SLIGHT COOLING AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FOR             
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
PRELIM NUMBERS:                                                                 
JAN 059/080 059/077 -00-                                                        
MEI 058/080 058/079 -00-                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
315 AM CST WED FEB 23 2000                                                      
NEGATIVELY TILTED 50H TROF AND ASSCTD SFC CYC WILL LIFT NE TDY THEN             
NEXT BROAD 50H TROF WILL INDUCE STG LEE CYCLOGENESIS THU. OUTFLOW               
BNDRY MOVING SE AT 26 KTS AND WILL CROSS ALL OF CWA AT OR BEFORE 12Z            
GIVEN DECENT ISALLOBARIC PRES RISES. LATEST RUC ALSO SUGGESTS THIS.             
THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH SFC WND FIELD WITH VRB DIRECTION PROBABLY             
BEST COURSE. 08Z 11U-3.9U SAT IMAGES SUPPORT THE NGM/AVN SOLNS OF               
RETAINING LLVL MSTR. W CWA WILL BECOME PS/MS BUT E CWA WILL LKLY                
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TDY PER NGM/AVN X-SCTNS. LINGERING 1000-850MB              
DIV Q/Q VECTOR CONVG/WK SFC FRONTOGENESIS/SFC MSTR CONVG/STILL HI               
PWATS ARGUES ISOLD/WDLY SCT POPS THIS AM(SPCLY E CWA). 1000-850MB               
THICKNESSES A LITTLE LWR TDY SO WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER E CWA PER               
NGM MOS AND TREND TOWARD NGM/LAMP MOS W CWA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES E              
CWA TNGT WILL SPREAD TO W CWA AS WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESUMES. DIV            
Q/Q VECTOR CONVG SUGGESTS ISOLD POPS FOR STREAMER SHRA BUT WITH MUCH            
OF COLUMN FEATURING SW WNDS WILL NOT INCLUDE NOW. WILL FOLLOW                   
AVN/NGM MOS TEMPS FOR TNGT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT THERE              
WILL BE FG TNGT BUT PTCHY GIVEN ALL THE CLD CVR. MORNING CLDS/PTCHY             
FG THU WILL YIELD TO PS/MS AFTN. WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND 85H            
TEMPS HIGHER TEMPS SHUD BE IN 80S XCPT ALG THE CST. LLJ WILL BE                 
STRNGTHENING ON THU. FEEL WINDY QUALIFIER IS IN ORDER AS SFC CYCLONE            
DEEPENS AND 50H JETMAX BECOMES POISED TO OUR NW.                                
MARINE: WILL MAINTAIN SCA NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WTRS THIS AM WITH                  
ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA. WILL INDICATE SCA ALL WTRS ON THU.                         
EXTENDED: CURRENT PATTERN CONTINUES. THU NGT/FRI WILL FEATURE WINDY             
CONDITIONS. A PREFNTL TROF APPEARS TO CROSS THE CWA ON SAT BUT THE              
ACTUAL CDFNT NEVER MAKES IT. LKLY NOT TO BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPS.               
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP EB 076/066/082/068 084 2--                                                  
VCT EB 076/064/081/066 082 2--                                                  
LRD BB 085/066/088/070 088 -00                                                  
.CRP...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.                                                  
(SYN)...85/BB                                                                   
(MESO)...80/MB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx