Technical Information:  (202) 606-5700         USDL 97-429

Media Contact:          (202) 606-5902      For release: 10 A.M. EST
                                            Wednesday, December 3, 1997
Internet: http://stats.bls.gov.emphome.htm 


BLS RELEASES NEW 1996-2006 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS


	New projections for the American work force from 1996 to 2006 were 
issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 
providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry 
and occupation and what the demographic makeup of the work force 
pursuing those jobs is likely to be.

	These 10-year projections of economic growth, the labor force, and 
employment by industry and occupation are widely used for studying long-
range economic and employment trends, planning education and training 
programs, and developing career information.

Labor force

	The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase 
by 15 million over the 1996-2006 period, from 134 million to 149 
million.  This represents an increase of 11 percent, less than the 14 
percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1986-96.  (See table 
1.)  The projections indicate that the demographic composition of the 
labor force is expected to change because the population itself will 
change and because work force participation will change.

*	The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force 
of any other age group as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-
64) continues to age.  The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is 
projected to decline by almost 3 million, reflecting the 
decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.
*	The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age 
groups are projected to increase, but at a more moderate rate 
than in the previous 10 years, particularly among younger 
women.  Mens labor force participation rates are projected to 
continue to decline for all age groups under 45 years of age.  
As a result, the women's labor force will grow more rapidly 
than the mens, and the womens share of the labor force will 
increase from 46 to 47 percent.
*	The Asian-and-other labor force and Hispanic labor force are 
projected to increase faster than other groups, 41 percent and 
36 percent, respectively, because of high net immigration and 
higher than average fertility.  The black labor force is 
expected to grow by 14 percent, faster than the 9 percent 
growth rate for the white labor force.
*	The Asian-and-other share of the labor force will increase from 
4 to 5 percent and Hispanics from 10 to 12 percent.  White non-
Hispanics accounted for 75 percent of the labor force in 1996.  
Their share of the labor force in 2006 will decrease modestly 
to 73 percent.  
*	By 2006, the black and the Hispanic labor forces will be nearly 
equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the 
labor force over the 1996-2006 period.

Employment

Industry employment 

*	Over the 1996-2006 period, total employment is projected to 
increase by 14 percent or 19 million, from 132 million in 1996 
to 151 million in 2006.  This growth rate is much slower than 
during the previous 10-year period 1986-1996 when growth was 
19 percent and the economy gained 21 million additional jobs.  
(See table 2.)
*	Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of 
the job growth.  Only construction will add jobs in the goods-
producing sector, offsetting declines in manufacturing and 
mining.
*	Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as 
a decrease of 350,000 manufacturing jobs is projected.  
Manufacturing is expected to maintain its share of total 
output, as productivity in this sector is projected to 
increase.  Accounting for 14 percent of employment in 1996, 
manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in 
2006.
*	Health services, business services, social services, and 
engineering, management, and related services are expected to 
account for almost one of every two wage and salary worker jobs 
added to the economy during the 1996-2006 period.  Of the 10 
fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of these four 
industry groups. (See table 4a.)

Occupational employment

*	Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase 
the fastest and to add the most jobs--4.8 million.  This group 
also had the fastest rate of increase and the largest job 
growth in the 1986-96 period.  Service workers are expected to 
add 3.9 million jobs.  These two groups--on opposite ends of the 
educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to 
provide 46 percent of total projected job growth over the 1996-
2006 period.  (See table 3.)

*	Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average 
are executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; 
technicians and related support occupations; and marketing and 
sales occupations.

*	Administrative support occupations including clerical are 
projected to grow much slower than the average and slower than 
they have in the past, reflecting the increasing impact of 
office automation.  The projected growth of 1.8 million jobs 
for this group is significantly less than the 3.1 million job 
growth over the 1986-96 period.

*	Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and 
operators, fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much 
more slowly than the average due to continuing advances in 
technology, changes in production methods, and the overall 
decline in manufacturing employment.

*	The 10 fastest growing occupations include six health-related 
and four computer-related occupations.  (See table 4b.)

*	The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more 
than one-fifth of total employment growth. (See table 4c.)

Education and training

	Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts 
of education and training.  Growth rates over the 1996-2006 period will 
range from 7 percent for occupations generally requiring postsecondary 
vocational training to 25 percent for occupations requiring a bachelors 
degree.  All categories that generally require an associate degree or 
more education are projected to grow faster than the 14 percent average 
of all occupations.  In contrast, all other categories are expected to 
grow less than 14 percent. (See table 5.)

Notes

	More detailed information on the 1996-2006 projections appears in 
five articles in the November 1997 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, 
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  
A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear 
in the forthcoming Winter 1997-98 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. 

	The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are 
sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402.  
The Review costs $29 a year; single copies are $7.50.  The Quarterly 
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Telecommunications Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD 
Message Referral Phone Number: 1-800-326-2577.

                                                             
Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
[Numbers in thousands]
                                    Level               Change        Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth 
                                                                                                          rate (percent)
       Group               1986     1996     2006  1986-96 1996-2006 1986-96 1996-20  1986   1996   2006 1986-96 1996-2006

Total, 16 years and      117,834  133,943  148,847 16,109    14,904    13.7    11.1  100.0  100.0  100.0    1.3     1.1
16 to 19                   7,926    7,806    8,924   -120     1,118    -1.5    14.3    6.7    5.8    6.0   -0.2     1.3
20 to 24                  15,441   13,377   15,494 -2,064     2,117   -13.4    15.8   13.1   10.0   10.4   -1.4     1.5
25 to 34                  34,591   33,833   30,842   -758    -2,992    -2.2    -8.8   29.4   25.3   20.7   -0.2    -0.9
35 to 44                  27,232   36,556   35,455  9,324    -1,101    34.2    -3.0   23.1   27.3   23.8    3.0    -0.3
45 to 54                  17,739   26,397   35,157  8,658     8,760    48.8    33.2   15.1   19.7   23.6    4.1     2.9
55 to 64                  11,894   12,146   18,753    252     6,607     2.1    54.4   10.1    9.1   12.6    0.2     4.4
65 and over                3,010    3,828    4,221    818       393    27.2    10.3    2.6    2.9    2.8    2.4     1.0

Men, 16 years and over    65,422   72,087   78,226  6,665     6,139    10.2     8.5   55.5   53.8   52.6    1.0     0.8
Women, 16 years and over  52,413   61,857   70,620  9,444     8,764    18.0    14.2   44.5   46.2   47.4    1.7     1.3

White                    101,801  113,108  123,581 11,307    10,473    11.1     9.3   86.4   84.4   83.0    1.1     0.9
Black, 16 years and over  12,654   15,134   17,225  2,480     2,091    19.6    13.8   10.7   11.3   11.6    1.8     1.3
Asian and other, 16        3,371    5,703    8,041  2,332     2,338    69.2    41.0    2.9    4.3    5.4    5.4     3.5
  and over 1/

Hispanic origin, 16        8,076   12,774   17,401  4,698     4,627    58.2    36.2    6.9    9.5   11.7    4.7     3.1
  and over 
Other than Hispanic      109,758  121,169  131,446 11,411    10,276    10.4     8.5   93.1   90.5   88.3    1.0     0.8
  origin, 16 and over 
White non-Hispanic,       94,026  100,915  108,166  6,890     7,251     7.3     7.2   79.8   75.3   72.7    0.7     0.7
  16 and over
1/ The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives.  
The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made directly,
not by subtraction.


Table 2.     Employment by major industry division, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
           Industry                   Thousands of Jobs        Change        Percent distribution    Average annual 
                                                                                                     rate of change
                                     1986    1996   2006    1986-96 1996-2006 1986    1996    2006  1986-96 1996-2006

           Total 1/                111,374 132,352 150,927  20,978    18,575  100.0   100.0   100.0    1.7     1.3

Nonfarm wage and salary 2/          98,727 118,731 136,318  20,004    17,587   88.6    89.7    90.3    1.9     1.4
  Goods producing                   24,538  24,431  24,451    -107        20   22.0    18.5    16.2    0.0     0.0
    Mining                             778     574     443    -204      -131     .7      .4      .3   -3.0    -2.5
   Construction                      4,810   5,400   5,900     590       500    4.3     4.1     3.9    1.2      .9
    Manufacturing                   18,951  18,457  18,108    -493      -350   17.0    13.9    12.0    -.3     -.2
      Durable                       11,200  10,766  10,514    -433      -252   10.1     8.1     7.0    -.4     -.2
     Nondurable                      7,751   7,691   7,593     -60       -98    7.0     5.8     5.0    -.1     -.1

  Service producing                 74,189  94,300 111,867  20,111    17,567   66.6    71.2    74.1    2.4     1.7
    Transportation, communications,  5,247   6,260   7,111   1,014       851    4.7     4.7     4.7    1.8     1.3
      utilities
    Wholesale trade                  5,751   6,483   7,228     732       745    5.2     4.9     4.8    1.2     1.1
    Retail trade                    17,878  21,625  23,875   3,747     2,250   16.1    16.3    15.8    1.9     1.0
    Finance, insurance, and          6,275   6,899   7,651     625       752    5.6     5.2     5.1    1.0     1.0
      real estate
    Services 2/                     22,346  33,586  44,852  11,240    11,266   20.1    25.4    29.7    4.2     2.9
    Federal government               2,899   2,757   2,670    -142       -87    2.6     2.1     1.8     .5      .3
    State and local government      13,794  16,690  18,480   2,896     1,790   12.4    12.6    12.2    1.9     1.0

Agriculture 3/                       3,327   3,642   3,618     314       -24    3.0     2.8     2.4     .9     -.1
Private household wage and salary    1,235     928     775    -307      -153    1.1      .7      .5   -2.8    -1.8
Nonagricultural self-employed        8,085   9,051  10,216     966     1,165    7.3     6.8     6.8    1.1     1.2


1/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas
self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current PopulationSurvey (household
survey), which counts workers.
2/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable with
data published in Employment and Earnings
3/ Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
4/ Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).



Table 3.  Employment by major occupational group, 1986, 1996, and projected 2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                                                        Employment                               Change
           Occupational group                    Number         Percent distribution     Number         Percent
                                          1986    1996    2006    1986    1996    2006  1986-96 1996-2001986-96 1996-2006
                 Total, all occupations  111,375 132,353 150,927   100.0   100.0   100.0  20,978  18,574    18.8    14.0
Executive, administrative, and managerial 10,568  13,542  15,866     9.5    10.2    10.5   2,974   2,324    28.1    17.2
Professional specialty                    13,589  18,173  22,998    12.2    13.7    15.2   4,584   4,826    33.7    26.6
Technicians and related support            3,724   4,618   5,558     3.3     3.5     3.7     894     940    24.0    20.4
Marketing and sales                       11,496  14,633  16,897    10.3    11.1    11.2   3,137   2,264    27.3    15.5
Administrative support, including         20,871  24,019  25,825    18.7    18.1    17.1   3,147   1,806    15.1     7.5
  clerical
Service                                   17,427  21,294  25,147    15.6    16.1    16.7   3,867   3,853    22.2    18.1
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and        3,661   3,785   3,823     3.3     2.9     2.5     124      37     3.4     1.0
  related
Precision production, craft, and repair   13,832  14,446  15,448    12.4    10.9    10.2     614   1,002     4.4     6.9
Operators, fabricators, and laborers      16,206  17,843  19,365    14.6    13.5    12.8   1,637   1,522    10.1     8.5



Table 4a.  The 10 Industries with the Fastest Employment Growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)



                                                Employment  Change, 1994-2006  
Industry description                           1996   2006    Number Percent
Computer and data processing services         1,208  2,509     1,301   108
Health services, nec.                         1,172  1,968       796    68
Management and public relations                 873  1,400       527    60
Miscellaneous transportation services           204    327       123    60
Residential care                                672  1,070       398    59
Personnel supply services                     2,646  4,039     1,393    53
Water and sanitation                            231    349       118    51 
Individual and miscellaneous social services    846  1,266       420    50
Offices of health practitioners               2,751  4,046     1,295    47
Amusement and recreation services, nec.       1,109  1,565       457    41


Table 4b.  The 10 Occupations with the fastest employment growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                                                                Employment       Change
                           Occupation
                                                                    1996    2006   Number Percent
Database administrators, computer support specialists, and all       212     461     249     118
  other computer scientists
Computer engineers                                                   216     451     235     109
Systems analysts                                                     506   1,025     520     103
Personal and home care aides                                         202     374     171      85
Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides                  84     151      66      79
Home health aides                                                    495     873     378      76
Medical assistants                                                   225     391     166      74
Desktop publishing specialists                                        30      53      22      74
Physical therapists                                                  115     196      81      71
Occupational therapy assistants and aides                             16      26      11      69


Table 4c.  The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1996-2006
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                              Employment       Change
          Occupation
                                           1996    2006   Number Percent
Cashiers                                  3,146   3,677     530      17
Systems analysts                            506   1,025     520     103
General managers and top executives       3,210   3,677     467      15
Registered nurses                         1,971   2,382     411      21
Salespersons, retail                      4,072   4,481     408      10
Truck drivers light and heavy             2,719   3,123     404      15
Home health aides                           495     873     378      76
Teacher aides and educational assistants    981   1,352     370      38
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants  1,312   1,645     333      25
Receptionists and information clerks      1,074   1,392     318      30



Table 5.  Employment and total job openings, 1996-2006, and 1996 median weekly earnings by education and training category
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                                                                                                                  Total job openings      1996
                                                                Employment                    Change             due to growth and net    median
                                                                                                               replacements, 1996-2006 1/ weekly
                                                                                                                                         earnings
         Education and training category                Number         Percent distribution                                              full-time
                                                                                           Number   Percent        Number   Percent       workers
                                                      1996     2006        1996     2006
          Total, all occupations                    132,353  150,927      100.0    100.0   18,574     14.0         50,563    100.0        $483
First professional degree                             1,707    2,015        1.3      1.3      308     18.0            582      1.2       1,057
Doctoral degree                                       1,016    1,209        0.8      0.8      193     19.0            460      0.9         847
Master's degree                                       1,371    1,577        1.0      1.0      206     15.0            430      0.9         682
Work experience plus bachelor's or higher degree      8,971   10,568        6.8      7.0    1,597     17.8          3,481      6.9         786
Bachelor's degree                                    15,821   19,838       12.0     13.1    4,017     25.4          7,343     14.5         686
Associate's degree                                    4,122    5,036        3.1      3.3      915     22.2          1,614      3.2         639
Postsecondary vocational training                     8,091    8,689        6.1      5.8      598      7.4          2,329      4.6         444
Work experience in a related occupation               9,966   11,177        7.5      7.4    1,211     12.2          3,285      6.5         534
Long-term on-the-job training                        12,373   13,497        9.3      8.9    1,125      9.1          3,988      7.9         490
Moderate-term on-the-job training                    16,792   18,260       12.7     12.1    1,468      8.7          5,628     11.1         434
Short-term on-the-job training                       52,125   59,062       39.4     39.1    6,937     13.3         21,422     42.4         337

1/ Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements.  If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth
are zero and total job openings equal net replacements.
Changes from past procedures used to develop projections

Projection period.   Over the past four decades, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has developed projections in 
which the target year always ended in a zero or five and the projection period never was fewer than 10 
years or more than 15 years.  Two or three projections were made to each target year, because a new set of 
projections was developed every other year.  This procedure caused some confusion with users about 
which set of projections was the proper set to use.  In addition, concerns were raised about the validity of 
projections that were for a period longer than 10 years.  To address these concerns, the BLS has changed its 
procedure and will develop 10-year projections beginning with the 1996-2006 projections.  The next set of 
projections scheduled to be issued in November 1999 will cover the 1998-2008 period.

Alternatives.  Since the early 1980s, three alternative scenarios, low-growth, moderate- or base case, and 
high-growth, were developed for each major segment of the projectionslabor force, aggregate economic 
growth, industry employment, and occupational employment.  In developing the three scenarios, most of 
the analytical effort was devoted to the preparation of the moderate (base case) alternative.  The low-
growth and high-growth scenarios were based on modest changes in labor force growth using different 
assumptions about immigration and labor force participation rates and modest changes in gross domestic 
product growth based on different assumptions for a few economic variables, such as defense expenditures, 
exports, or imports.  In translating these assumptions into industry employment and occupational 
employment projections, no changes were made to significant factors that could affect industry and 
occupational employment, such as input-output coefficients and projected occupational staffing patterns of 
industries.  

In general, users of the projections only considered the moderate (base case) scenario projections of  
industry employment and occupational employment.  The BLS, itself, in using the occupational 
employment projections to develop career guidance information in the widely used Occupational Outlook 
Handbook, only used the moderate scenario.  However, those who used the low-growth and high-growth 
projections often assumed that the difference between those two scenarios represented a range within 
which the BLS expected the employment projection to fall.  That assumption was not true, as the 
procedures used to develop those alternative scenarios were not intended for that purpose.  To avoid such 
misinterpretations, no alternative projections were developed for the 1996-2006 projections.