####018004087####
FXUS64 KFWD 130449 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1049 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009

.AVIATION...
NEW INFORMATION SUGGESTS CIGS MAY HOLD IN THE MVFR CATEGORY MOST OF 
THE MORNING WITH LITTLE OR NO IFR IMPACT OVER THE METROPLEX...BUT 
NOT SO FOR KACT AS BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED 14-16Z. NO CHANGE IN 
THINKING ABOUT DRYLINE OR FRONTAL TIMING.  SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME 
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRYLINE...THEN NORTHWEST TO 
NORTH FRIDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
906 PM CST.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND THE MAIN CHANGE HAS BEEN TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FOR THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. 
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.  58

&&

.AVIATION...
524 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA IS SPREADING MID AND
HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS ACROSS NTX THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA BY 00Z FRIDAY (1800 THURS). IN
THE PROCESS...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS NTX TAF
SITES WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FOR THE METROPLEX SITES...AND IFR TO
MVFR FOR KACT...MOST OF FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS OVER THE METROPLEX SITES 14-16Z. CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 20Z.

A DRYLINE WILL NEAR THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN PUSH
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN
VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES..THEN TURN
NORTHWESTERLY EITHER VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. SPEEDS GENERALLY 7-12KTS UNTIL AFTER COLD FROPA FRIDAY
EVENING.    75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009/
FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK.
PROGRESSIVE WAVES/TROFS/DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS EVERY 2-3 DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN. FIRST TROF MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TX FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND I AM
ONLY FORECASTING LOW POPS IN THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/TROF MOVES ACROSS AND WE
GET SIMILAR POP CHANCES...ONLY A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH 20 POPS IN
THE METROPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. A
THIRD TROF IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT DEW POINTS MAY CLIMB INTO THE 60S OVER EASTERN
AREAS AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. NO POPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A.M.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY COLD AIR WELL NORTH INTO THE
PLAINS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
MANY AREAS.THE PACIFIC FRONTS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL COOL OFF THE AREA FOR A DAY OR SO EACH...WITH MONDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS THE COOLEST THIS WEEK. SOME RURAL AREAS WILL
SEE A FREEZE THOSE DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S AND OCCASIONAL LOW
70S THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY. 84



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  71  43  58  42 /   5  10   5   0  20 
WACO, TX              52  70  45  61  50 /   5  10   5   0  20 
PARIS, TX             46  66  41  58  40 /   5  20   5   0  20 
DENTON, TX            51  71  38  59  40 /   5  10   5   0  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          50  69  38  59  41 /   5  10   5   0  20 
DALLAS, TX            53  70  43  59  45 /   5  10   5   0  20 
TERRELL, TX           50  68  45  62  47 /   5  10   5   0  20 
CORSICANA, TX         51  69  45  59  46 /   5  10  10   0  30 
TEMPLE, TX            51  71  48  60  49 /   5  10   5   5  20 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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