SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
113 PM MDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEK...                     
...EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON...              
CURRENTLY: RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PATTERN THIS AFTN.  LATEST WATER VAPOR           
IMAGERY/RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED NEXT ULJ MOVING INTO THE                  
PACIFIC NW. SCT-BKN CI/CS CLOUDS MOVING SWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.             
TNGT: RELATIVELY WK MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE CNTRL                   
ROCKIES TNGT.  SHOULD SEE SOME CI/CS MIGRATING OUT OF THE NRN                   
ROCKIES LATER ON TNGT.  CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK.                            
SUN-SUN NGT: TOUGH CALL ON ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES NEED DURING                 
THESE PERIODS.  AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY...EXCEPT FOR SOME                       
300MB(CI/CS) OVERHEAD.  CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL FOR AFTN               
BREEZY CONDITIONS. IF CI/CS SHIELD IS A LITTLE MORE OPAQUE THAN                 
EXPECTED...THIS COULD TEMPER THE MIXING.  BEST WINDS...ALBEIT 20-               
30KTS...ARE LOCATED AT 500MB AND WILL NEED TO BE DRY ADIABATIC TO               
LESS LEVEL. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR "VIRGA BOMBS" TO BRING THIS MOMENTUM           
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  A VERY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD                  
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MET CONDITIONS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A               
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUN.  MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL CONDITIONS IN              
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CERTAINLY WILL BE ABOVE MID APR AVE              
TEMPS. WILL BE CLOSE TO APR RECORD HIGHS IN ALL AREAS ON SUN.                   
SUN NGT...ULJ AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BEGIN TO ADVANCE                 
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN. SHOULD SEE A DECOUPLING OF WINDS AT MOST               
LOWER ELEVATIONS...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE FAR SERN CO CORNER WHERE                
LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED AND LLJ EXTENDS FROM WRN TX             
INTO KS.  ANY "SIGNIFICANT" WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGHER                       
ELEVATIONS DURING THE NGT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS MON AM AS THE NEXT               
ULJ TAKES AIM ON THE CNTRL ROCKIES FOR LATE MON-TUE.   CURRENT ZFP              
LOOKS IN LINE...BUT WILL NEED TO ADD DETAILED WIND WORDING.                     
MON-MON NGT: PREVIOUS AFD SPELLS IT OUT WELL..."IN ADDITION TO THE              
METEOROLOGY....ACCORDING TO NOAA AND FOREST SERVICE GUIDANCE...FUELS            
ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY THE "100 HOUR FUELS" (THAT           
IS...OLD DEAD LOGS) IF A FIRE SHOULD GET STARTED...METEOROLOGICAL               
CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR(HODANISH/SAT AM AFD)."            
STARTING TO GET GOOD RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONTINUITY ON THE POTENTIAL OF            
WINDY/VERY WINDY AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR MET CONDITIONS FOR                   
MON-MON EVE. LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH MID                
LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHENING.  IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS             
IN WY WITH TIGHT LEE SIDE TROUGH/DRYLINE PROJECT OUT NEAR CO/KS                 
BORDER. RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY" AIR PROGGED IN THIS VIGOROUS SWLY FLOW.           
 500MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE 45-55KTS WITH 700MB WINDS 30-40KTS DURING           
MUCH OF MON INTO MON EVE.  PATTERN SUGGEST FAIRLY SHALLOW INVERSION             
SUN NGT AND SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY MON AM.  BY MON AFTN...850-800MB             
LYR WINDS PROGGED TO BE 20-35KTS.  WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY                 
LYR...POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUST OF 45-50KTS.  AT THIS TIME...THE AREAS            
HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 50KT GUSTS WOULD BE THE MTNS...GAP                
FLOW AREAS(WALSENBURG)...AND SAN LUIS/UPPER AR RIVER VALLEYS WHERE              
HIGH WIND HEADLINES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR MON-MON EVE. WILL MENTION               
"VERY WINDY" FOR MON-MON EVE BASED ON THE POTENTIAL GUSTS.                      
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ARE SLIM GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DEEP "DRY"            
AIR MASS...HOWEVER THERE IS A "CHUNK" OF 500MB MOISTURE RACING ACROSS           
NM LATE MON AFTN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH POSSIBLE RECORD              
HIGH TEMPS AT ALL LOCATIONS.                                                    
MON NGT WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY MILD WITH POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY                  
RECOVERY.  UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD WITH SFC CYCLONE MIGRATING FROM WY            
TO THE NRN PLAINS. SFC WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE DUE TO PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT FORCES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER MILD NGT.  850MB TEMPS              
IN SERN CO FORECAST TO BE AROUND +20C BY 12Z/15 TUE.  GRIDS HAVE LOW            
TEMPS AROUND 60F IN FAR SERN CO MON NGT AND COULD BE DOABLE.                    
PLAN TO HIT THE WINDS PRETTY HARD AND IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS WILL             
DEFINITELY NEED FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ALONG WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH              
WIND HEADLINES MON-MON EVE.                                                     
TUE: ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINDY DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH              
THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  AGAIN...MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK TO PROMISING...               
EXCEPT ALONG AND W OF CONTDVD. THIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SRN                
STREAM ULJ MOVING OUT OF OLD MEXICO.  POTENTIAL FOR "VIRGA BOMB" DAY            
IF CONDITIONS BECOME JUXTAPOSED. MIGHT NEED MORE HEADLINES FOR THIS             
DAY.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW POP MENTION.                                            
WED-SAT: UPPER LEVEL W-SWLY FLOW NEVER REALLY GOES AWAY WED-THU WITH            
MODEL NOW PROJECTING ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE THU-FRI.  ON TUE NGT-               
WED SHALLOW FROPA ERN CO WITH WARM FRONT DEVELOPMENT IN ERN CO/WRN              
KS WITH DRYLINE FOLLOWING CLOSE BEYOND ON WED.  TROUGH HEADS TOWARD             
CNTRL ROCKIES THU-FRI.  MRF MAY BE TOO COLD WITH THIS SYSTEM.  ECWMF            
OFFERS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THU-FRI WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CA               
AND NOT MUCH COMING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  DOESN'T BODE WELL               
FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT.  DAY 4-6 WAS TOUCHED ON THE                   
MIDSHIFT AND PLAN NOT TO CHANGE.  WILL ADD DAY 7 AND KEEP FORECAST NR           
CLIMO AND NO PRECIP MENTION.                                                    
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
200 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
RUC HAS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH A             
SFC LOW CENTERED NW OF BOOTHVILLE, LA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY                
CLEARLY SHOWS THE TIGHT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC LOW. LOCAL 88-DS             
ARE BECOMING ACTIVE AS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FORM OVER THE CWA. SIMILIAR            
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NW ACROSS THE             
AREA.                                                                           
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LAST INTO SUN AFTN BEFORE WEAKENING.                  
RIDGING ALOFT IS INDICATED BEGINNING MON. THE SFC HI CENTERED IN THE            
ATLANTIC WILL NOSE BACK TO THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED                
EAST-WEST ACROSS SRN GA. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH                
NEXT WEEK VEERING THE WINDS FROM SE TO SW. PWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AN             
INCH AS THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. POPS WL            
BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY HIGHER POPS CARRIED              
EAST. SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR AFTN              
AND EVENING TSMS BY MON.                                                        
FIRE WEATHER: NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                    
MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS AS WINDS AND SEAS BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH WED.             
EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER               
THE EAST COAST TUE SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC WED STRENGTHENING THE               
BURMUDA HI WHOSE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WEST ACROSS SRN GA. THIS SFC                 
RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE             
WEEK PLACING THE WHOLE CWA IN A SW REGIME THAT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR            
SEA BREEZE TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS                   
INDICATED TO DROP INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE              
CHANCE FOR PCPN.                                                                
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH 062/081 061/082 4433                                                        
PFN 065/077 065/079 4433                                                        
DHN 063/078 062/079 4432                                                        
ABY 062/078 061/080 4432                                                        
VLD 063/082 062/082 4433                                                        
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
MME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
845 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
.MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM AS TO WHAT                
FEATURES TO FOCUS ON. RUC AND MESOETA PLUS NUMERIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST             
DRIFT TO MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN.                                             
.CURRENT...FEW REMAINING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE             
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND DIMINISHING LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG LINE            
OF SHOWERS. UPPER LOW IN GULF WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW ESE DRIFT AND              
SLOW FILLING THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                   
.FORECAST...WILL SEE DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION. WILL CHANGE TYPE TO             
RAIN AND DIMINISH POPS TO 20 PERCENT. UPPER LOW WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH            
TONIGHT AS IT WANDERS AND DIMINISHES. IT IS PROVIDING LITTLE IN WAY             
OF SENSIBLE WEATHER INPUT TO CURRENT WEATHER. WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP,             
SO WILL ADD PATCHY FOG NORTH.                                                   
TEMPERATURES...LOOK OK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS LOWS DUE             
TO CLOUDS AND LITTLE THICKNESS CHANGE.                                          
.ATL...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.                     
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE             
AT FLUS42 KFFC.                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
945 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
LIKE LAST NIGHT...UPDATED LOWS A CATEGORY WITH AIR MASS BEING MORE              
HUMID AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS REFLECT. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER               
40S FROM THE IL RIVER NW TO AROUND 60 SE BY KLWV. ALSO UPDATED AREAS            
ALONG AND SE OF I-70 FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHERE BKN CUMULUS                  
CLOUDS LINGER. KEPT THIS AREA DRY OVERNIGHT AS MESOETA ADVERTISES.              
BUT RUC BRINGS LIGHT QPF NE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT.                 
THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF IN SE CWFA UNTIL AFTER                  
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS MCV IN OZARKS LIFTS NE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
JUST SE OF KLWV.                                                                
9 PM TEMPS RANGE FROM 54 AT KGBG...KHUF AND KCMI TO 64 AT FLORA AND             
63 AT KLWV AND OLNEY. LIGHT FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT LIKE LAST NIGHT              
WITH LOWEST VSBYS STAYING ABOVE 1SM. LOWEST VSBYS NEAR 1SM ALONG THE            
IL/IN BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.                             
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
HUETTL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
840 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
AT 830 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDED IN A LINE ABOUT 40-60 MILES              
WIDE FROM SERN PA BACK ACROSS CNTRL MD...THE ERN WV PANHNDL AND INTO            
WESTERN VA AND DOWN INTO SRN WV. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE                
EAST THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY REGION AFTER 11              
PM. AIRMASS NOT VERY UNSTABLE AND LGTNG ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO            
SRN PORTIONS OF WV THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE LINE IS HOLDING                    
TOGETHER AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN...SOME SPOTS COULD             
GET UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THE RUC/ETA SHOW               
LIMITED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT FOR OUR CWA.                             
THE CURRENT ZNS INDICATING CHC SHOWERS TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD. PLENTY OF            
MOISTURE AROUND...MAINLY MID/HI CLDS TO SUPPORT MSTLY CLDY                      
OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING ASIDE FROM THE LINE.                  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH 18Z ETA/AVN MDLS SHOW SOME MID-LVL                  
DRYING ALOFT MOVING INTO THE NW PRTN OF THE CWA. SO BEST CHC FOR                
SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE CURRENT LINE. HOWEVER RADAR             
FROM CHARLESTON WV SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL BACK TO THE            
SW OF THEM...SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON TO LEAVE OUR CHC SHOWERS IN               
TONIGHT. 18Z ETA SHOWS A WK WAVE MOVING ACROSS WV/WRN VA/MD TOWARDS             
MORNING WHICH COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING IN THE               
WRN PORTION OF THE CWA. ORIENTATION OF THE UPR LVL JET OVER PA BY               
09Z/14 SUPPORTS ENHANCED UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE IN FAR WRN SECTIONS                 
BETWEEN 09Z/14 AND 15Z/14.  TEMPS TNGT LOOK TO BE IN THE BALL PARK.             
ON SUN...LOOKS ALMOST TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AROUND             
AND MAYBE WHERE THE SUN BUSTS THROUGH WE COULD SEE AN ISOL TSTM.                
INSTABILITY SEEMS LIMITED AND THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE                
AROUND TO KEEP SFC HEATING DOWN. RIGHT NOW...THINK THE LKLY POPS FOR            
SUNDAY MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDOWN BUT WON'T TOUCH AT THIS POINT.                   
FOR NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SUMMER PATTERN SETTING UP. BY               
MID WEEK A BERMUDA-STYLE HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE UP RESIDENCY OFF THE               
SERN U.S. COAST. THIS WILL PUMP A MOIST WARM SW FLOW INTO THE REGION            
THROUGH FROM TUES ON. THIS MEANS SUMMER-LIKE TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BY              
MID-WEEK. EVEN THE TYPICALLY CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE FROM THE MRF                 
SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE L0W TO MID 80S. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH TO                 
FORCE PRECIPITATIOIN IN THIS PATTERN...SO IT WILL REMAIN DRY.                   
SMZ                                                                             
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                     
BCMG NICE DAY E OF THE BLURDG...W/ LGT SLY FLW...SLGTLY HUMID DEWPTS            
/ARND 60F/...AND THN SPOTS DVLPG ON STLT AND REFLTD IN OBS. WKNG                
FRNTL BDNRY APPCHG TDA...BUT CONVGNC REMAINS TO THE W...WHERE A                 
ROUND OF -SHRA PASSED THIS MRNG. ETA-RUC SFC TEMPS AT 21Z LWR-MID               
70S. CONSIDERING TEMPS IN MID 60S NOW...THESE VALUES WELL W/IN                  
REASON. ZFP/RDF WL BE UPDTD TO REFLCT THIS. CLDCVR LIKELY TO REMAIN             
THICKER TO THE W...SO TEMPS TO STAY CLSR TO CRRNT VALUES.                       
DONT SEE TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR TSTMS TDA...OUTSIDE OF WK SFC CONVG INVOF            
DECAYING FRNT. AREAS TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS /THE EAST/ WONT HV               
ANY SPPRT... AND THOSE W/ WEAK SPPRT LIKELY WONT ATTAIN CONVCTV                 
TEMPS. QSTNG WHETHER ANY SHRA AT ALL WL FORM ERN THIRD OF AREA IN               
FEATURELESS SWLY FLW. POPS WL BE LWRD IN THE E...AND WL BUMP UP TO              
LIKELY WRN RDGS...NEAREST FOCUSING MECHANISMS. AS PER THUNDER...WL              
LV IT IN W AND CNTRL SXNS...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNPLAY WORDING                  
CNTRL. WL RMV THUNDER ALTOGETHER ERN ZNS AND THE CWF. SERIOUSLY                 
DOUBT IF ANYTHING WERE TO ORGANIZE...THAT IT WUD BE ABLE TO DRIFT               
THAT FAR E AWAY FM ANY SPPRT GIVEN DEEP SWLY STEERLING FLW.                     
ALSO QSTN WHETHER ANY PCPN WL BE ARND THIS EVNG...AS ONE S/WV                   
DEPARTS LT THIS AFTN...AND NXT ONE NOT ARRIVING TIL TMRW. WL TABLE              
THAT ITEM FOR TAFTN.                                                            
CWF SOON...ZFP/RDF BFR 11AM.                                                    
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
HTS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
945 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL GRADUALLY PUSH                
NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH LATEST MESOETA/RUC FORECASTS OF LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE SUGGESTING THAT THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG WILL BE GREATEST                
ACROSS SE COUNTIES...IN LINE WITH ONGOING FORECASTS.                            
MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE CROSSING THE UPPER              
MS RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...0Z APX/GRB SOUNDINGS WERE VERY                       
DRY...WHILE 18Z MESOETA FORECAST DEPICTED THE LEAD SHORTWAVE                    
WEAKENING AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALL             
SUGGESTING THAT PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES THE FORECAST             
AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING PER UPSTREAM RADAR                 
TRENDS...AND PLAN TO CONTINUE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS ACROSS THE N/NW.            
18Z MESOETA DOES SUGGEST THAT A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY                 
HOLD TOGETHER TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN UP AND NW LOWER MI AROUND                
12Z...BUT WILL LEAVE SECOND PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS FOR MID SHIFT.                   
OTHERWISE...WILL DROP EVENING SKY COVER REFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS                
FORECASTS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/WINDS.                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1106 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                     
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE INVOLVES THE TEMP TDA AND                   
TNGT...AND FLOOD POTENTIAL.                                                     
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHRTWV OVR E PART OF CWA AND OVR LWR MI               
EMBEDDED IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACRS N CONUS. OTHER SHRTWV'S ARE OVR W            
DKTS...AND OVR WA. TO THE S A LOW CNTR IS DVLPG OVR BAJA...AND                  
ANOTHER OVR THE NE GLFMEX. MEANWHILE...SFC ANLYS INDC A RDG OVR UPR             
GRTLKS PROD DRY COND AND LGT WNDS ACRS FCST AREA THIS MRNG. A WRMFNT            
STRETCHES FM A LOW OVR N MAN ACRS N ONT INTO S QUE. A WEAK SFC TROF             
IS MAKING IT'S WAY ACRS N PLAINS IN ASSOC THE MID LVL SHRTWV. IR                
IMAGERY SHOWING CLDS AHD OF THIS TROF. LTG DETECTION NET SHOWING                
TSTM OVR OK/KS AND NE NE THIS AM.                                               
MRNG RAOB SHOWING VRY DRY ABV 850MB OVR UPR GRTLKS. THUS SKIES                  
SHOULD REMAIN MO CLR THIS AFTN. WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC            
RDG...WNDS SHOULD REMAIN LGT. BUOY DATA INDC LK TEMP ARND 35F. THUS             
WITH TEMPS WRMG INTO 50S AND LOW 60S THIS AFTN WITH ABUNDANCE OF                
SUN...SHOULD SEE A FEW LK BREEZES SET UP. RUC IS TRACKING A VRY WEAK            
SHRTWV INTO W CWA BY LATE AFTN. 295K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING SOME              
WEAK LIFT AHD OF MID SFC TROF AND ASSOC SHRTWV. DUE TO THE DRYNESS              
OF THE AMS...A FEW CLDS SHOULD DVLP OVR W CWA BY LATE AFTN...                   
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY.                                              
A SHRTWV WILL MOV ACRS FCST AREA OVRNGT. SFC TROF WILL WORK INTO NW             
MN. 295K ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING FAIRLY STRONG UVM AHD OF THE TROF.            
SOME GULF MSTR WILL HAVE WORKED IT WAY INTO THE N PLAINS AHD OF THE             
TROF. THIS WILL EDGE INTO THE U.P. OVRNGT. THIS...WITH THE LIFT...              
CAUSED BY THE SFC TROF AND SHRTWV...WILL TRIGGERS SCT SHRA ACRS W               
U.P. OVRNGT. THESE SHRA WILL OVRSPREAD THE FCST AREA ON SUN.                    
850-500MB Q-VEC CONVERGENCE WOULD INCR ACRS FCST AREA BY 12Z SUN.               
ETA INDC A BAND OF INSTABILITY PROD SOME K-INDEX ARND 30. THUS                  
LOOKING FOR EVEN A TSRA OR TWO POSSIBLE.                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
939 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL BE FORTHCOMING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF             
PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND TO UPDATE SKY                 
CONDITION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.                                  
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE                
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF              
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CIRRUS ACROSS THE                
SKY.  I THINK THE CIRRUS WILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH TO WARRANT                    
CHANGING WORDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS TO "PARTLY               
CLOUDY."                                                                        
OUR EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS THINGS ARE (RELATIVELY) DRY THROUGH THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER.  MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 14/00Z ETA APPEAR TO BE               
TOO MOIST...WITH THE RUC AND MM5 A LITTLE CLOSER TO REALITY.  THESE             
TWO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY MOISTEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER              
ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO GET SOME PATCHY FOG.  THIS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY            
AS AREA TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT              
RECEIVED RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HOWEVER...VISIBILITIES               
SHOULD NOT BE REDUCED BELOW 3 MILES...SO I'LL HOLD OFF MENTIONING IN            
THE ZONES FOR THE TIME BEING.                                                   
THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A-OK...WITH TEMPERATURES AND             
WINDS GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK.                                                
THE UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                                 
FCSTID = 10                                                                     
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
BUTTS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
815 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE...OVERNIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.                                  
FIRST 50H WAVE HAS MOVED WELL EAST INTO NE MN...WITH SECONDARY                  
TROUGH LOCATED FROM ROSEAU TO FERGUS FALLS.  THIS TROUGH HELPED KICK            
OFF ISOLD SHRA PAST 2 HOURS...WITH MOST ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR            
CWFA.  W-SW WINDS AND 30 DEW PTS HANGING BEHIND TROUGH OVER MUCH OF             
ND...BUT APPEARS THIS DRIER AIR AND WIND SHIFT WILL NOT GET INTO THE            
RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEW PTS ARE AROUND 50.                                   
ATTENTION TURNS WEST AS POTENT VORT MAX OVER FAR NCNTRL MT HELPING              
TO SET OFF AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SRN SASK AND NE MT LATE THIS                 
AFTN.  THIS ACTIVITY NOW MOVING INTO NW NW AND MINOT 88D SHOWING                
MOVEMENT AT 35-40KTS EAST.  RUC SHOWS STRONG 30H DIVERGENCE ASSOC               
WITH 130KT JET MOVING THRU NRN ZONES TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NARROW 85H            
THETA-E RIDGE AND 85-70H CONVERGENCE.  CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER NW ND            
ATTM.  THUS APPEARS LIKELY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EAST AND MOVE THRU             
NRN CWFA OVERNIGHT.  WILL UPDATE TO ADD SHOWERS TO NRN 1/2 CWFA                 
OVERNIGHT.  ATTM WILL LEAVE SE ND DRY AS MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH.            
WILL SEND OUT UPDATED ZFP/RDF/WEB IMAGES OUT BY 9 PM.                           
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
945 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS DEGREE OF CONVECTION AND TEMPS.                     
NARROW BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL DAKOTAS BOUNDARY AND MID            
LEVEL CIRCULATION PROPAGATING EAST AOB 25KTS AND SHOULD REACH THE               
RED RIVER AROUND 18Z. RUC INDICATING SHOWALTER INDICES HOVERING                 
AROUND ZERO HOWEVER NO LTG HITS SO FAR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING              
HOWEVER WITH WELL DIFINED CIRCULATION NOTED FROM WATER VAPOR AND                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY POTENTIAL WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF ISOLD T.                
BASED ON UPSTREAM CLEARING AND SPEED OF RAIN BAND WILL MAKE SOME                
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.  MILD START HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT              
ON TEMPS ESPECIALLY EAST OF RRV. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK HOWEVER ANY              
CHANGES WILL BE MINOR.                                                          
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
905 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
WK SFC BNDRY STILL LOOKS TO BE ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF FA AND THEN                 
PSBLY TRAILING DOWN INTO SRN IND. SFC RUC DATA SHWG SOME WK                     
INSTBLTY TO THE S ACRS SRN PORTIONS OF FA. THIS ALG WITH A LTL CONV             
HAS BEEN ENUF TO GENERATE A FEW SHWRS ACRS NRN KY PAST SVRL HRS.                
RADAR PIX SHWG PCPN A BIT MORE WIDESPRD DOWN TO THE SW ACRS WRN KY.             
MDLS KPG DPR MSTR ACRS THE S OVRNGT AND WITH A LTL BETTER S/W ENERGY            
MOVG IN LATER TNGT...WL HANG ON TO PCPN ACRS THE S BUT MAY TRIM BACK            
POPS A LTL. SC HAS BEEN ADVECTING IN ACRS THE AREA AND THINK THIS               
MAY HELP KP TEMPS UP A LTL SO WL TWEAK TEMPS UP IN THE S. CLDS SHUD             
ALSO HELP LIMIT THE PSBLTY OF DENSE FOG DVLPMT AND THINK CRNT FCST              
HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.                                                        
.ILN...NONE                                                                     
LOTT                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                     
12Z SFC MAP DEPICTED A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL LAKE ONTARIO...SW THRU             
CNTRL LAKE ERIE...THEN INTO NW OHIO AND CNTRL INDIANA.                          
06Z ETA AND 06Z AVN DIFFER SOMEWHAT AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE                 
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL GET.  ETA ALLOWS FRONT TO PASS THRU                   
WAPAKONETA AND DAYTON AREAS...BUT NO FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  AVN               
ALLOWS FRONT TO SLIP SOUTH AND EAST OF COLUMBUS AND JUST NORTH OF               
THE OHIO RIVER FOR CVG AND PMH.  RUC IS SIMILAR TO AVN.  SOMETIMES A            
BLEND OF THE MODELS IS THE BEST CHOICE IN THE SITUATION.  THUS...A              
WEAKENED FRONTAL POSITION SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE ETA SOLUTION BUT                
NORTH OF THE AVN SOLUTION WILL BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO.  WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SFC TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                              
IN THE SHORT TERM...A H5 S/WV WILL CROSS THE REMAINING CWFA BETWEEN             
NOW AND 20Z.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE OUT AHEAD OF THIS S/WV ACRS THE ERN              
CWFA AS SEEN ON KILN RADAR.  GIVEN NVA BEHIND THE S/WV AND THE LOW              
CLOUDS ACRS THE WEST AND THE ANTICIPATED LOW CU ACRS THE EAST BY MID            
AFTN...WILL REMOVE CHC/S FOR SHOWERS/TSTM ACRS THE WEST AND ONLY                
LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN IN THE EAST.  MODIFIED ILN                    
SOUNDING WITH A HIGH OF 67 YIELDS ONLY 227 J/KG OF CAPE.  AS                    
STATED...WITH NVA BEHIND SW/V...BELIEVE DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE HELD              
IN CHECK.  WILL TWEAK TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS.             
.ILN...NONE                                                                     
HICKMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
220 PM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
THE LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                  
NORTHWARD AND INTO THE SOUTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.            
MSAS SHOWS WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT               
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH PART...BUT WILL             
PROBABLY KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY THIS EVENING BASED ON                 
CURRENT COVERAGE. THE LATEST MSAS SHOWED LI/S NEAR -1. INSTABILITY              
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS SO EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS               
INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND H5 TROUGHING               
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS LATE                
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE ETA AND AVN INDICATE A LACK OF H85 WARM             
ADVECTION AND DPVA SO EXPECT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND MAINLY                
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HEATING. PLAN TO USE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST              
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY.                                                     
PLAN TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                   
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED               
WITH SURFACE HEATING. THE MRF MAINTAINS HIGH MRH THROUGH THE PERIOD             
WITH K-INDEX VALUES AROUND 30. THE MODEL SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING              
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY.                                                       
FCSTID = 5                                                                      
CAE   58  79  61  80 /  30  40  30  30                                          
AGS   58  80  59  79 /  30  40  30  30                                          
SSC   59  79  60  79 /  30  40  30  30                                          
OGB   59  80  61  80 /  30  40  30  30                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RJL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1015 AM EDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                     
VERY LTL CHANGE ON UPDATE. WILL RAISE TEMPS A CAT ACRS INLAND SC                
CNTYS TO UPR 70S...AND REMOVE MORN WORDING FM ALL ZONES. WILL                   
MAINTAIN CHC CONVECTION ACRS ENTIRE FA WITH HIER POPS WELL INLAND AS            
RUC AND MESOETA MODELS INDICATE UPR VORT MOVG NWD ALG THE CST DURG              
THE AFTN.                                                                       
MARINE...LTL IF ANY CHG ON UPDATE. WILL MAINTAIN SCEC FOR ALL AREAS             
BUT CHS HARBOR THIS AFTN WITH E-SE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 5 FT            
OR LESS.                                                                        
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
JAC/SLF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS                                            
920 PM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                      
CONVECTION ALONG SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED WITH             
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THE SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA              
AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR.  THEN              
EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...STRONG JET            
STREAK DIVING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW LATE TONIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN                
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 500 MB WITH DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTH             
EASTERN CWA.  BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW LI/S FALLING BELOW ZERO TOWARD              
DAWN.  THIS WL INTERACT WITH A SFC TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE CWA                   
OVERNIGHT.  IT APPEARS THE BEST INTERACTION WL BE ACRS SW MN TOWARD             
DAWN.  TO THE SOUTH...ATMOS DOES NOT DESTABILIZE AND NOT AS                     
FAVORABLY LOCATED WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND THE TROUGH MOVES            
THROUGH THE WRN CWA BEFORE THE COLD AIR AT 500 MB CAN MOVE IN.                  
AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT TONIGHTS                 
CONVECTION WL KEEP WINDS LIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I29 EARLY.                     
THIS...COMBINED WITH COOL OUTFLOW WL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL A LITTLE               
FARTHER THAN FORECAST.  TO THE WEST...WNDS WL PICKUP AS THE SECOND              
TROUGH APPROACHES KEEPING TEMPS NEAR FCST LOWS.                                 
OTHERWISE WL REMOVE EVENING WORDING FROM ZONES.  UPDATED FCST OUT               
AROUND 930 PM CDT.                                                              
.FSD...NONE.                                                                    
SCHUMACHER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1000 AM CDT SAT APR 13 2002                                                     
AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AS FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS MOVES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IN                       
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE POSITIVE                
TILTED 200MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH WEAK                  
500/700MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 500/700MB                 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PROVIDING OVER SOUTH TX PROVIDING SUBSIDENT AIR IN              
BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BAJA CA AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.             
WITH 1000-500MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING ANTICYCLONE ALONG TX             
COAST...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SURFACE                    
INSTABILITY AS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR AN                
INCH WITH STRONG INVERSION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION BETWEEN 900MB AND              
800MB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS WITH CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPS YIELD                 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 100 WHICH IMPLIES MUCH HEAT NEEDED TO OVERCOME            
10 DEGREE CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CU FIELD OVER CWA.             
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE FOG AND WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AS                  
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. MARINE...SEAS 2            
FEET OFFSHORE WITH E TO SE WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO            
CWF NEEDED.                                                                     
SYNOPTIC-PUBLIC/AVIATION-MARINE...CASTILLO.61                                   
MESO...MARTINEZ                                                                 
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
150 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                      
HIGH PRES CONTINUES OFF THE E COAST KEEPING WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE NE GULF              
WHILE A SW/V WAS APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER WAS                      
PROGRESSING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK VORT HAS LED TO THE DEVELOP-             
MENT OF WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA OFF THE SC COAST. ETA/RUC DIFFER IN                
LOCATION OF THE VORT BUT BOTH DRIFT IT N AND WEAKEN IT THIS MORNING.            
THE AVN DOES THE SAME W/ THIS FEATURE. WILL CONTINUE W/ LOW CHANCE              
POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHT CHANCES AT NIGHT SINCE THERE IS NO               
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER TO LOCK ONTO...AT LEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.             
00Z ETA SHEARS OUT THE S/WV APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY...THEN                    
CONSOLIDATES IT ACROSS THE DEEP S MON/TUE TIME FRAME. THE AVN IS                
SIMILAR...AND BOTH SUGGEST MINOR VORTS WILL MOVE THIS WAY DURING THE            
WEEK. IF THE AVN PANS OUT...THEN MAYBE WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE                
COVERAGE OF STORMS DURING THU AS A BETTER S/WV MOVES INTO THE ERN               
US. WARM WEEK ON TAP W/ TEMPS AROUND 80 (COOLER AT THE COAST) AND               
MINS IN THE 60S.                                                                
CWF: 4 TO 5 FT SWELL CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FLOW IS LIGHT            
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SLY DURING SUN...W/             
SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS OR LESS. THE SWELL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. NO FLAGS                                                      
FCSTID = 29                                                                     
ILM   77  63  79  63 /  30  20  30  20                                          
LBT   79  61  80  61 /  30  20  30  20                                          
FLO   80  61  81  62 /  30  20  30  20                                          
MYR   75  64  77  64 /  30  20  30  20                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
PFAFF                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
415 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                      
INITIAL NRN STREAM VORT CENTER IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH FAR             
NRN NEW ENGLAND PER WV IMAGERY. BACK EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT                 
(DEEPER MOIST AXIS) EXTENDS S OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO JUST E OF              
THE VA/NC BORDER...THEN BUCKLES MORE W-E OVER NC WHERE AIRMASS                  
BECOMES LESS BAROCLINIC (TROUGH WASHES OUT) UNDER INFLUENCE OF                  
BERMUDA HIGH.                                                                   
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS OFFSHORE THAT               
MAY CLIP THE NC OUTER BANKS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING            
PER THE LATEST (06Z) ETA/RUC PROJECTIONS. LOW LEVEL (COASTAL) FRONT             
IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT.                  
NEVERTHELESS...AVN/ETA QG CHARTS SHOW SUBTLE 300-200 MB DIVERGENCE              
(WEAK DPVA) AND ASSOCIATED WEAK OMEGA AND INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW               
LEVEL INFLOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST                        
VA/NORTHEAST NC THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE A CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS THIS MORNING OVER THIS REGION...WHILE MAINTAINING DRY                   
WEATHER ELSEWHERE.                                                              
BY THE AFTN...SECOND ROUND OF NRN STREAM FORCING COMMENCES AS THE               
80-90KT 300 MB JET STREAK SHIFTS FROM SRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE REGION              
(CURRENTLY) TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RIGHT             
ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING (UPPER DIVERGENCE/850-500 MB QVECTOR                
CONVERGENCE)...THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WELL           
S OF THE UPPER JET CORE. STILL...ADDED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALONG WITH             
THE GOOD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN             
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.                                 
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT TOO SHABBY...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES            
CLIMBING BTWN 500-1000 J/KG...PWATS TO AROUND 1.3"...AND LI'S                   
LOWERING TO NEAR -2C THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE OVER               
THE SE ZONES RESULTS IN HIGHER MODEL CAPES...NEAR 2000 J/KG (LI'S               
NEAR -3C) PER THE ETA. CAPE IS ESSENTIALLY THE "TALL/SKINNY"                    
VARIETY...AS ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP DISTRIBUTION                      
(RELATIVELY HIGH EL'S...NEAR 35KFT). TOTAL-TOTALS IN THE LOWER-MID              
40S AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 6C/KM DO NOT SUPPORT STRONG               
UPDRAFT STRENGTH... THUS EXPECT TSTMS TO BE MORE ISOLATED.                      
TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE               
LINGERING (WEAK) QG FORCING...WITH THE TSTM MENTION DURING THE                  
EVENING WHEN THE INSTBY PARAMETERS REMAIN SUFFICIENT.                           
MONDAY...DYNAMICAL SUPPORT PULLS AWAY...AS LLVL FLOW BECOMES MORE SW            
VERSES S. THERMODYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE...AS +14C 850 MB                 
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN MORE 80+ F READINGS ACROSS THE REGION.                     
HOWEVER...WITHOUT THE DYNAMICAL FORCING EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES              
TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE INFLUENCES (OUTFLOW            
BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE) THAT ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS            
TO RESOLVE. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 30% POPS IN ALL AREAS...             
THOUGH THE TRENDS FROM THE RECENT (00Z) MODELS HAS BEEN FOR MORE                
ISOLATED COVERAGE.                                                              
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THE LATEST AVN SHOWS WEAK                   
SFC-700 MB TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON THU              
(WHICH GIVEN THE INSTBY IN PLACE WOULD BE A SUFFICIENT TRIGGER FOR              
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES). FOR NOW WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO GET A                 
BETTER LOOK AT THIS WITH ANOTHER (12Z) MODEL SUITE.                             
MARINE FORECAST...NO FLAGS.                                                     
FCSTID = 13                                                                     
SBY   75  60  77  60 /  40  40  30  20                                          
OXB   72  60  74  58 /  40  40  30  20                                          
ECG   78  62  81  63 /  30  30  30  20                                          
ORF   78  63  81  63 /  30  30  30  20                                          
PHF   77  62  80  61 /  30  30  30  20                                          
AKQ   80  61  82  61 /  40  30  30  20                                          
RIC   79  61  81  61 /  40  30  30  20                                          
FVX   77  60  80  60 /  40  40  30  20                                          
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
HURLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1015 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                     
STRATUS IS HANGING IN LONGER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS            
MORNING...THUS THE EASTERN HALF GETTING A HEAD START ON HEATING AND             
WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO DEVELOP SHOWERS/TSTMS. TLH 12Z SOUNDING             
PARAMETERS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. RUC              
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING AS PROGGED.                  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKER                      
CIRCULATION AROUND THE SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN LA AS WELL. STILL...               
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE                
MAIN TRIGGER FOR AFTN INTO EVENING STORMS. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD TO             
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THAT APPEARS REASONABLE. WINDS AND SEAS             
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE IN-LINE WITH CURRENT MARINE FCST.                   
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
MME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1128 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INCLUDES -SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPS              
TNGT.                                                                           
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WEAK SHRTWV XTND FM S LK HURON ACRS THE MS                 
VALLEY INTO N TX. ANOTHER LTL STRONGER SHRTWV IS OVR MN RACING INTO             
THE UPR GRTLKS WHILE EMBEDDED IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW. MPX WSR-88D AND             
THE LGT DETECTION NETWORK ARE INDC SCT -TSRA OVR MPX AREA IN ASSOC              
WITH THIS SHRTWV. A CLOSED LOW HAS MOVED ASHORE OVR S BC...WHILE                
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW HAS SETTLED INTO SE PAC...OFF THE CST OF BAJA.               
MEANWHILE...SFC ANLYS DEPICTING A LOW OVR W ONT...WITH A WRMFNT                 
STRETCHING ACRS NE WI INTO SE LWR MI. A CDFNT IS ALSO RUNS ACRS S               
CAN AND A TROF SWINGING THRU DKTS AND THE CNTRL PLAINS.                         
THE MN SHRTWV WILL MOV INTO W CWA BY EARLY AFTN AND TO CNTRL PART BY            
00Z. 300K ISENTROPIC ANLYS KEEPING A FAIR AMNTS OF UVM OVR FCST AREA            
THIS AFTN. THE OMEGA AHD OF SHRTV ALSO SUPPORTS THIS. THE -TSRA OVR             
MN WAS EMBEDDED ALONG THE 850MB THETA-E RDG. THE RUC/ETA SHOWING THE            
MAIN PART OF THIS RDG WILL SLIDE TO THE SW OF CWA THIS AFTN. THE                
WEAKER N PART WILL STILL SLIDE ACRS CWA THIS AFTN. ETA PROG K-VALUES            
TO REACH 30 THIS AFTN OVR W AND CNTRL CWA. CAPE VALUES AND LAPSE                
RATE BTWN 850-500MB ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A TSRA OR               
TWO ACRS CWA. IR SHOWING ONE BAND OF CLDS MOVING THRU CWA ATTM...AND            
THE SECOND ASSOC WITH THE SHRTWV OVR MN...WILL SLIDE THRU THIS AFTN.            
WILL KEEP SCT -SHRA WITH A MENTION OF -TSRA.                                    
ETA INDC THE SHRTWV WILL MOV E OF CWA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ETA               
BRINGS ANOTHER SHRTWV ACRS CWA OVRNGT. COND WILL BE MUCH DRIER WITH             
THIS SECOND SHRTWV...AS DRY AIR ADVECTS IN BHND THE TROF. 850-500MB             
Q-VEC MOSTLY DIVERGENCE ACRS CWA OVRNGT. ETA PROGGED PROFILE SHOWING            
DRY BLO 500MB...WITH MST COND ABV. THUS MID AND HI CLDS ARE LIKELY              
OVRNGT. THIS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THUS...WILL STICK CLOSE             
TO GUIDANCE ON THIS. DO NOT XPC ANY PCPN OVRNGT.                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC                                         
957 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                      
CURRENT RADAR AND STLT LOOPS DEPICTING A SERIES OF WEAK MESOSCALE               
VORTS ON WESTERN PERIPHERAL OF BERMUDA HIGH. FEATURES ARE TRIGGERING            
WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA OFF THE SC/NC COAST. ETA/RUC DIFFER IN LOCATION            
OF THE VORT BUT BOTH DRIFT THEM N/E AND WEAKEN THEM. CONTINUITY IS              
POOR AT BEST. WILL UPDATE ONLY TO DELETE MORNING FOG WORDING REST OF            
FORECAST LOOKS FINE.                                                            
CWF: BERMUDA HIGH STILL THE DOMINANT FACTOR TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT              
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT 10-15 KT S-SE WIND TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH 4-5              
FT ELY SWELLS. SHOWERS WERE MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM BUT MIGRATING NWD               
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGES EXPECTED.                                   
FCSTID = 01                                                                     
ILM   77  63  79  63 /  30  20  30  20                                          
LBT   79  61  80  61 /  30  20  30  20                                          
FLO   80  61  81  62 /  30  20  30  20                                          
MYR   75  64  77  64 /  30  20  30  20                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RWA/CRM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1100 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                     
GOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB THIS AFTERNOON.              
LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAS CLEARED REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER CWA.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING            
FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EASTWARD            
THROUGH CWA TODAY.  WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER MOST AREAS AS            
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN              
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR             
THIS TRANSITION.  BASICALLY LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE WITH EXCEPTION              
OF BUMPING UP FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE                  
CURRENT TRENDS...2 METER ETA DATA...RUC SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST            
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FORECASTED HIGHS.  LOW AND MID LEVELS              
REMAIN VERY DRY AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS THIS              
AFTERNOON.  REMOVED SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS             
CENTRAL CWA...BUT LEFT ALONE IN FAR WEST WHERE BETTER PROXIMITY TO              
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PROMOTE BETTER                
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.  UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                            
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
117 PM MDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                      
...POTENTIAL FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THIS WEEK...                
...VERY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE WX PATTERN PROJECT FOR THIS WEEK...               
CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING                   
VIGOROUS ULJ OVER THE PACIFIC NW.  NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE              
TO WORK WITH...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.                
SFC WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP(5-15KTS) AND MORE LIKELY THERMALLY                
DRIVEN THAN SYNOPTICALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW             
TO WARM WITH THE LACK OF TURBULENT MIXING...BUT STILL HAVE PLENTY OF            
SUN TIME TO GO.                                                                 
TNGT: 80-110KT ULJ OVER PACIFIC NW MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN               
AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE NGT.  WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN               
ERN CO/WRN KS LATER TNGT.  MID LEVEL WINDS DON'T START TO PICK UP               
(500MB/>25 KTS) UNTIL MON AM.  SUSPECT THERE WOULD BE SOME LOWER                
ELEVATION WIND DECOUPLING(TRANSITION TO DRAINAGE WINDS) AFTER                   
SUNSET...WITH ANY "SIGNIFICANT" WINDS LOCATED AT HIGHER                         
ELEVATIONS(AOA 9K FT MSL).  CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TNGT.               
MON-MON NGT: STILL POTENTIAL FOR WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS                 
AND EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR THIS DAY.  HOWEVER...THERE A FEW MINOR                
CHANGES IN THE MODELS.  LATEST TREND IS TO KEEP THE ULJ AXIS JUST A             
LITTLE FURTHER W-NWD.  500MB WINDS NOW PROGGED TO ONLY BE 30-50KTS              
FROM E-W ACROSS CWFA...RESPECTFULLY. SYNOPTIC/MESO-SCALE PATTERN                
STILL HAS A POTENTIAL TO PROMOTE MUCH ABOVE MID APR TEMPS...SINGLE              
DIGIT RH VALUES...AND WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH DURING MON AFTN-EVE.  WITH           
THIS POTENTIAL...WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL PUB FIRE               
WEATHER ZONES...MON 9AM-10PM.  LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.               
THINKING HERE IS THIS COULD BE A BIG FIRE WEATHER WEEK.                         
MON NGT...NEXT ULJ TAKES AIM ON THE PACIFIC NW...WHILE THE ETA HAS A            
LITTLE ULJ(70-80KTS) AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE/THERMAL TROUGH HEADS              
TOWARDS WRN CO FOR TUE.  DEEP MOD SWLY FLOW PROGGED FOR THE NGT.  IF            
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS PROJECTED VERIFY...COULD BE A MILD NGT WITH POOR             
RH RECOVERY. ALSO...COULD SEE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MELT            
DURING THE NGT. WOLF CREEK HAS BEEN HOVERING AROUND 32F DURING THE              
PAST FEW NGTS.                                                                  
AGAIN...CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO ADD DETAILED WINDS            
FOR MON NGT(3RD PERIOD).                                                        
TUE-TUE NGT: INTERESTING DAY HERE.  ETA HAS THE LITTLE 70-80KT                  
"JETLET" MOVING ACROSS NRN NM WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE/THERMAL                 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CO DURING PEAK HEATING. AVN HINTS AT THIS...              
BUT NOT AS STRONG.  SFC CYCLONE PROGGED OVER NWRN KS WITH ATTENTIVE             
COLD FRONT HEADING S TOWARDS CWFA TUE AFTN.  ANY DECENT MOISTURE                
WOULD BE FOUND ABV 700MB TUE AFTN. MOD-STG MID LEVEL LAPSE(8.0-                 
9.5C/KM) PROGGED AND IS IN RESPONSE TO "COLD" THERMAL TROUGH MOVING             
THROUGH AREA DURING MAX HEATING WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAPID                        
DESTABLIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN              
MON.  CAPE ALONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO BE 200-400 J/KG...WHICH ISN'T            
THE GREATEST. HELICITY COULD COMPENSATE FOR THE MEAGER CAPE VALUES.             
0-3KM HELICITY FORECAST TO BE 150-250 M2/S2...SO POTENTIAL FOR MESO-            
CYCLONE/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE POSSIBLE IF              
EVERYTHING IS JUXTAPOSED CORRECTLY.  30-35KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR FCST IN            
IN E CNTRL CO AROUND KITR AT 21Z TUE AFTN...BUT THEN THE SIGNIFICANT            
DEEP SHEAR SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT             
HIGH BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.  AHEAD OF THIS                
FRONT...MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE "VIRGA BOMB" POTENTIAL AT THE LOWER            
ELEVATIONS. ON TUE NGT...NEXT ULJ "RELOADS" IN THE PACIFIC NW PER ETA           
EXTENSION AND AVN.  BACK INTO THE W-SWLY FLOW. COULD SEE SOME                   
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY EVE SHRA/TSRA IN RESPONSE TO INSTABILITY/SHALLOW            
COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS SERN CO MTNS.                                         
WED: BACK INTO THE DEEP/MOD-VIGOROUS SWLY FLOW WED.  NEXT ULJ                   
CONTINUES TO DIG IN PACIFIC NW AS CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS.  THIS APPEARS            
TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE OLD ECWMF SOLUTIONS.  500MB WINDS                    
PROGGED TO BE 40-45KTS ACROSS CWFA.  MIGHT BE A LITTLE DEEPER                   
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER ITS INTERESTING THE ETA IS NOT                  
PRINTING OUT ANY QPF FOR WED AFTN.  TIME WILL TELL.  WILL MAINTAIN              
CURRENT LOW POP WORDING.                                                        
THU-SUN: AS WITH THE CHANGE OF THE CALENDAR DAY...SO DOES THE MEDIUM            
RANGE MODELS.  LATEST AVN NOW TRENDING TOWARDS THE OLD ECWMF RUNS...            
BUT THE AVN'S CLOSED LOW IS FURTHER E IN THE GREAT BASIN THU-FRI.               
YDA'S ECWMF CLOSES THE LOW AND SITS IT OUT IN WRN US THROUGH SAT                
AM.  BY 12Z/FRI...AVN PROGS A DEEP CYCLONE OVER UT. IF THE AVN                  
VERIFIES...STILL TOUGH TO GET MOISTURE IN SRN CO.  SRN CO PROGGED TO            
BE IN MASSIVE "DRY" SLOT WITH ASSOCIATED 100-110KT ULJ DIRECTLY                 
OVERHEAD. VERY "DRY" MID LEVEL AIR MASS(20% RH OR LESS/500-300MB LYR)           
SOURCE EXTENDING FROM PACIFIC OCEAN TO DESERT SW INTO SRN CO.  IF               
PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS FCST           
FOR WY AND NEARBY STATES. THU COULD BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH LITTLE            
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.  CURRENT FRI FCST COULD BE WAY TOO COOL WITH              
TOO MUCH PRECIP POTENTIAL...IF LATEST AVN VERIFIES. TIME WILL TELL.             
.PUB...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 220...221...222...             
223...224...AND 225(MTNS/SAN LUIS AND UPPER AR RVR VLYS)...MONDAY...            
9AM-10PM MDT.                                                                   
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1037 AM MDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                     
WL BE UPDATING TEMPS AND WINDS. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AS SFC             
TROF PUSHES THROUGH. SFC ANAL SHOWS NEXT LEE TROF ALREADY DVLPG.                
MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND CLOSEST TO REALITY           
SEEMS TO BE THE RUC. SO WL CHANGE WINDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS AND              
THE RUC.                                                                        
ERN CWFA LOOKS TO KEEP SOME KIND OF WLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE                   
DAY. HWVR...WRN PTNS LOOK TO HAVE LGT AND VRBL TO NORTH WINDS                   
SWINGING ARND TO THE SOUTH LATE. SO WRN CWFA WL NOT GET DOWNSLOPE               
HELP. 12Z SOUNDINGS WOULD POINT TO COOLR THAN FCST READINGS IN THE              
WEST. SO WL KEEP MAXES THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLR THAN CURRENT FCST             
IN WEST...AND ADJUST MAXES UP A LTL IN ERN CWFA DUE TO DOWNSLOPE                
WINDS.                                                                          
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2002                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE ENDING -SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING SOUTH             
CENTRAL AND EAST...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY                  
NIGHT...THEN CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TUE NIGHT AND WED.                                
WV IMAGERY SHOWING VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG INTO WRN WI AND ERN MN ATTM.            
AHD OF SHRTWV...RADAR LOOP SHOWS AREA OF SHRA FM CNTRL U.P.                     
EXTENDING INTO SW WI. BEST INSTABILITY GENLY HAS STAYED SOUTH OF FA             
WHERE DWPNTS OVR NCNTRL WI IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. LIGHTNING               
NOTED FM KRHI SOUTH ALG LINE OF CONVECTION.                                     
.TONIGHT...18Z RUC AND ETA SEEM TO PICK UP ON BETTER INSTABILITY                
SHOWING SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND -2C OVR NCNTRL AND NE WI WHERE                 
BETTER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY NOW. THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY BRUSHES                 
SCNTRL AND SE U.P. ZONES THIS EVENING AS SHRTWV MOVES ACROSS FA. WL             
KEEP SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TRW MENTIONED EARLYFOR IMT-MUNISING                     
EWD...OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO BCM PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DNVA/RDGG AND            
ASSOC SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHRTWV. WITH RAIN FM TODAY AND SFC PRES GRAD            
SLACKENING WITH APPROACHING RDG...EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM                
LATER THIS EVNG ACROSS FA.                                                      
.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...5H RDG HGTS BLD OVR CNTRL CONUS AS SHRTWV             
ENERGY DIGS INTO SW STATES. IN RESPONSE WARM 850 MB AIR FM NE/KS                
ADVECTS INTO WRN GRT LAKES AS FLOW BCMS MORE SWLY FOR THE ERY WEEK.             
850 MB THERMAL RDG BCMS CNTRD OVR FA WITH TEMPS RISING TO 16-18C PER            
ETA AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS RISE INTO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S! THIS STG               
CAP WILL KEEP UPR MI DRY AND QUITE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE ERY                
WEEK. USED ETA 2M TEMPS AS GUIDE FOR FCSTG MAX TEMPS AS AVN MOS                 
LOOKS ABOUT 10F TOO LOW MOST AREAS. WENT GENLY 68 TO 75 NORTH WITH              
75 TO 80 SW...COOLER TEMPS IN MID 50S EXPECTED ALG LAKE MI IN SLY               
ONSHORE FLOW THERE. AS 850 MB JET OF 35-45 KTS PASSES OVR FA LATE               
MON AND MON NIGHT...EXPECT SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO REACH            
SFC RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDS MON NIGHT THRU TUE.                               
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS MORE VIGOROUS ENERGY CONTINUES TO CARVE OUT   
WRN CONUS TROF...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWV FM SRN PLAINS GETS EJECTED             
NWD LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT RIDING ALG STATIONARY FNT OVR NRN PLAINS             
AND SRN ONTARIO. CDFNT FINALLY GETS PROPELLED EWD PER 12Z AVN AND               
UKMET. CONVERGENCE ALG FRONT WILL BE FOCUS FOR AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA            
LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS IT PASSES THRU FA. DUE TO LACK OF NEG                
TILT WITH SHRTWV TROF AND SW/NE ORIENTATION OF SFC CDFNT...BELIEVE              
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DRAW AS MUCH DEEP MSTR INTO IT FOR HEAVY             
RAINFALL. MODELS ALSO CONFIRM THIS THOUGHT DROPPING ANYWHERE FM .25             
TO .40 INCH AT BEST.                                                            
.EXTENDED...RDG POPS BACK OVR FA FOR THU AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES EVEN             
MORE OVR WRN CONUS. SERIES OF SHRTWVS FM SW RIDE UP BACK OF RDG THU             
NIGHT INTO FRI AS SFC SYSTEM FM PLAINS GRADUALLY SLIDES OVER AREA.              
LEFT IN CHC OF SHRA FOR FRI WHICH AVN EXTENSION AND MRF/UKMET                   
OPERATIONAL AND MRF ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND               
ENSEMBLES STILL BRING IN COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SAT AND SUN              
FOR DRIER BUT COOLER CONDS NEXT WEEKEND.                                        
COORD WITH APX...THANKS.                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
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