FXUS04 KWBC 090738 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 AM EST TUE NOV 09 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 10/1200 UTC THRU NOV 11/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 
DAY 1...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE DEEP SHRTWV TROF OVR THE NERN U.S./SERN CAN WL LIFT
NEWD...WHILE ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF DIGS SEWD THRU CNTRL CAN
TWD THE UPR GRT LKS. FARTHER S...SHRTWV RDGG WL BUILD INTO THE
SERN U.S....WHILE THE GRT BASIN CLSD LOW SHIFTS INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS. A SCND CLSD LOW WL DVLP OFF THE CA/OR CST. AT THE SFC HI
PRES WL DOMINATE THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION....WHILE ANOTHER
CAN HI PUSHES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HI PLNS. PRES FALLS OVR
THE CNTRL HI PLNS WL INDUCE SOME MSTR RETURN INTO THE
REGION...WHILE THE CLSD LOW OFF THE CA/OR CST SUPPORTS INCRSG
ONSHORE FLOW.

...FL...

PERSISTENT ERLY ONSHORE FLOW WL DEEPEN THRU THE PD AND
SUPPORT MOSTLY LGT PCPN ALNG THE ECST THRU THE PD. MDLS SHOW
A MUCH DEEPER PLUME OF MSTR ACRS FAR SRN FL THAT COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED CNVCTN AND PSBLY MOD RNFL AMTS LATE
TDA/TNGT.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS...

THE CLSD LOW EJECTG FM THE GRT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS IS
HNDLG SIMILARLY BY THE MDLS. SVRL INDIVIDUAL VORTS ARE SEEN IN WV
SATL IMAGERY ROTATG ARND THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AND WL
SUPPORT POCKETS OF ORGANIZED PCPN THRU THE GRT BASIN INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. MDLS AND SATL STILL SHOW A WEAK PLUME OF DEEPER
MSTR FEEDG INTO THE REGION THAT SHLD SUPPORT SOME MOD PCPN
AMTS ON THE FAVORED HIER ELEVS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WL
OCCUR. LATER TNGT AS AS SHRTWV ROTATES THRU THE BASE OF THE
LRGR CIRCULATION...HGT FALLS/MIDLVL COOLG WL MOV INTO THE SRN HI
PLNS AND WL SUPPORT SOME INCRS IN CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCRSG LOLVL SRLY INFLOW...THERMAL FORCG AND THETA-E RDGG SHLD
SUPPORT CNVCTN FORMG OVR SERN CO/NERN NM THAT WL MOV EWD
TNGT. MSTR REMAINS VRY LIMITED...SO AT THIS TIME PCPN AMTS/AREAL
COVERAGE SHLD REMAIN MOSTLY LGT/SMALL.

...OR/CA...

THE NEXT ERN PAC CLSD LOW IS HNDLD SLGTLY DIFF BY THE MDLS...BUT
THE MDLS ARE SIMILAR ON THE TIMG OF THE LOLVL MOIST PLUME AND
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WL CROSS THE REGION LATER TDA/TNGT. WITH 20-
30 KTS OF 8H FLOW AND PWS ARND ONE INCH...THINK THE ETA QPF AMTS
ARE ON THE LGT SIDE. WL FOLLOW THE HVIER GFS...BUT MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS. THE MSTR PLUME
SHLD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY HVY PCPN WL BE VRY ISOLD.
BASICALLY PAINTED AN AREA OF LGT/MOD PCPN FM OR SWD INTO CNTRL
CA WITH THE HVIEST PCPN N OF SFO BAY REGION WHERE THE BETTER
INFLOW/UPSLOPE WL BE PSTND LATER TNGT. THIS AREA WL ALSO BE
UNDER THE FAVORABLE SPLIT IN THE POLAR JET WITH A WEAK UPR JET
 
DAY 2...

...SWRN OR/CA EWD INTO CNTRL GRT BASIN...

A SRN STREAM UPR LOW WL MOVE SLOWLY ESE INTO CA THIS PD AND
FOCUS A BROAD AREA OF SCT TO LOCALLY BKN AREAS OF RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVS SNOWS. THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHD BE FOCUSED ACRS THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED COASTAL RANGES FRM NR THE BAY AREA
AND SWD WHERE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOC WITH THE UPR LOW SHD RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED BANDS OF
SHWRS/TSTMS. PWS WL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SYS INLAND AND STEADY FETCH OF LOW LVL PAC
MOISTURE WL HELP TO ADD UP SOME HEAVIER AMTS WITH TIME.

FARTHER INLAND...THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
SIERRA-NEVADA SHD SEE SOME ENHANCED PCPN AMTS TOO. AN
INCREASE IN MID LVL MOISTURE AND SOME S/WV ENERGY ADVECTING
EWD INTO THE GRT BASIN WL ALLOW FOR SCT AREAS OF
OROGRAPHICALLY FOCUSED PCPN TOO. PCPN HERE SHD BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW OR SEEING RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW AS SNOW LVLS DROP.
MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THE WETTER GFS SOLN AND ITS TIMING WHICH
AGAIN HAS MORE SUPPORT FRM THE UKMET MDL. THE GFS HAS BEEN VRY
CONSISTENT LATELY AS OPPOSED TO THE ETA.

...CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MS VLY...

SRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS WL EJECT ENE THRU THE S CNTRL PLAINS AND
INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY AS NRN STREAM ENERGY DIVING SEWD ACRS
THE UPR MS VLY STARTS TO PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM
TROF. AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WL BE RETURNING NWD FRM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH SHD LEAD TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF
CONVECTION ACRS THE LWR MS VLY AS HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
APPROACH FRM THE WEST. PWS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES SHD SURGE NWD
AS H8 FLOW INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KTS AND THIS WL SUPPORT HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LGT/MDT
RAIN WL EXPAND ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ADVANCE TWD THE
MIDWEST AS STG H7/H5 DEFORMATION AND LOW/MID LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THRU THE MS VLY. XPCT
SOME SNOW TOO ON THE FAR NWRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AS COLD
AIR FILTERS ACRS BEFORE THE MOISTURE EXITS. GIVEN THE INFLOW OF
DEEP MOISTURE NR THE GULF COAST...THE HEAVIEST PCPN SHD BE ACRS
THE LWR MS VLY AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS AND UKMET MDLS AND MANUAL PROGS LEAN TWD THIS SOLN.

...UPR MS VLY/GRT LAKES...

NRN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING ACRS THE UPR MS VLY/GRT LAKES
AREA WL SEND A STG CDFNT SEWD WHILE SRN STREAM MOISTURE AND
ENERGY EJECTS ENE INTO S CNTRL PLAIN/LWR MS VLY. AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL PHASING SHD ALLOW MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH TO SURGE NEWD
ALONG THE CDFNT AND EVEN OVERRUN IT IN THE H8/H7 LYR. THE LOW LVL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHD PROMOTE A SHIELD OF MAINLY
LGT/MDT RAIN STREAKING NEWD FRM THE MIDWEST INTO MUCH OF MI.
MANUAL PROGS FAVOR AN ETA/GFS BLEND OF QPF HERE. JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR MAY SINK SEWD FOR RAIN TO BRIEFLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING ACRS THE UPR MS VLY AND U.P. OF MI.

ECKERT/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 10/12Z
 0.01 500932 508905 513857 515823 515816 514810 512802 510797 
      497785 493782 489781 480780 471782 466785 463788 460794 
      458797 458802 457807 458814 458821 459829 459835 457840 
      460872 458884 456895 452913 445933 441941 437950 426969 
      414987 411991 407993 401994 395994 388990 385987 380985 
      377983 374982 369981 365983 361984 357986 351992 345997 
      339004 334011 330018 330025 333029 340033 342039 345044 
      348045 352044 360040 362036 367035 373033 379033 390035 
      394036 395038 395042 389046 381047 373045 366048 358052 
      355055 354058 355061 356070 360075 364078 369085 372090 
      373096 375101 377103 380102 383100 389100 392103 394106 
      392109 384112 380114 376117 372127 371134 372140 378155 
      384161 385164 384167 385171 389175 394176 396171 395165 
      397160 400158 403159 408156 409152 406150 395139 390139 
      385138 380135 379133 382130 386127 394124 398125 402128 
      407127 410125 415126 417129 419139 421142 424138 425135 
      431122 437116 446117 452117 457115 461114 461118 461122 
      462126 464130 467135 469137 474140 480141 488148 493153 
      498155 502160 504168 508174 510179 510187 507200 503211 
      500219 496222 495226 494231 492234 490239 487247 485250 
      482257 480265 480270 481274 483278 489281 492281 499277 
      503274 507267 513254 516244 518234 520220 523207 525190 
      526172 526163 526155 523150 520148 517148 514152 511156 
      508155 503146 500141 496136 489129 479121 477115 479107 
      484095 482090 478087 474085 470081 468076 466072 461052 
      456047 452056 450060 446064 440063 436064 431064 430058 
      427053 421046 420038 422033 428026 431017 439996 444985 
      446982 449980 451981 456987 459989 460985 464975 466971 
      469968 477963 486955 492946 500932 
 0.01 467701 466696 463697 460699 458701 455703 453705 450707 
      448709 445711 443714 444717 447717 450716 453715 456713 
      458711 461708 463706 465703 467701 
 0.01 466265 467259 468252 466240 463229 466224 469221 470217 
      468213 464210 461209 458210 455213 450213 441211 431209 
      424203 420205 421211 422218 419217 417212 412206 404205 
      401202 395200 389195 381192 376191 374195 378203 377207 
      373207 362203 357203 352201 349200 346201 343206 336225 
      335231 337236 340240 340245 341248 348254 347259 349263 
      352264 361262 368259 376257 394260 403262 414265 436272 
      445275 448275 454274 461270 466265 
 0.01 436771 435768 432765 431764 430762 427760 426760 423760 
      422763 423766 425769 427771 428772 431774 435776 436771 
 0.01 463178 461176 457176 454172 452167 448170 448175 447179 
      441182 440187 439193 439198 442201 445203 444195 447193 
      452194 456186 460182 463178 
 0.01 429187 429183 428187 429187 429187 
 0.01 416174 417173 420172 422174 421177 421179 422181 421185 
      419186 418182 418180 415179 414178 416174 
 0.01 303814 294793 280786 274786 270788 262787 253791 247792 
      245795 242803 241809 242812 243817 244824 251832 257832 
      263828 270831 274832 278830 280825 280821 283817 286816 
      299818 303814 
 0.01 302946 301940 299937 297932 295928 293922 291916 288914 
      287914 285918 285924 286930 288936 289940 292945 295948 
      299948 302946 
 0.25 458258 459253 458249 456246 452243 448241 437237 434237 
      431235 431232 433231 436230 439228 439222 434221 431222 
      429223 428225 427228 426231 426233 421232 420231 420228 
      419228 418230 415229 413227 414224 415221 416218 415215 
      412215 411215 410216 408216 406214 405213 402213 400211 
      397210 397213 399217 401220 399223 396223 391222 388219 
      384218 381218 379217 376215 374214 370212 367210 365210 
      365212 366213 364214 361214 352218 349225 349234 355239 
      366244 412252 423254 430255 439257 445259 451260 458258 
 0.25 449076 447074 446072 444071 441070 439071 436072 439073 
      441074 444075 445076 447078 449076 
 0.25 444101 441097 439096 435094 432091 428087 424085 423088 
      424091 425097 425100 422102 418104 415105 413102 412097 
      410092 408089 406094 405100 404106 403110 403113 405116 
      409118 414119 418119 423117 426114 435110 440108 444105 
      444101 
 0.25 389061 387062 385062 384063 386065 387068 386071 384072 
      382071 379069 376068 373067 372070 373076 376081 379082 
      381082 383083 386087 388088 389086 390084 391084 392084 
      394086 397087 398084 401082 404082 406084 408085 409082 
      410077 412075 416074 415072 414070 414066 416065 415063 
      413061 411061 410059 410058 408056 404055 400053 396056 
      393058 391060 389061 
 0.25 355009 351014 351019 354024 358027 363027 377021 385017 
      385010 379004 370001 364002 359005 355009 
 0.25 245806 245816 247822 252825 253817 253808 252802 249799 
      245801 245806 
 0.50 432095 435100 436103 434106 430108 426110 423108 424105 
      428104 430104 431102 430098 428095 427093 429092 432095 
 0.50 360222 359224 358227 359232 364236 371239 384240 396242 
      403244 405243 405241 407240 409241 413241 417241 420240 
      419238 415236 413236 410237 407236 405235 403232 402230 
      400228 397227 394227 391226 389224 387222 385221 382221 
      381223 378223 376222 374221 372218 370217 369219 367220 
      364221 362221 360222 
 0.50 408116 406115 405113 405111 406108 407103 407101 407098 
      408098 409103 410106 410108 410110 411112 413113 415113 
      417114 417116 414117 412117 408116 
 0.50 389069 389071 390074 390077 392078 393076 395074 396074 
      397076 399077 402076 403072 404070 406071 407074 409074 
      411073 413072 413070 411066 409065 406066 405065 404062 
      401063 400065 399065 398064 396064 394066 393067 391067 
      389069 
 0.50 376014 373012 371012 367014 367018 370019 374016 376014  
 
24HR QP VT 11/12Z
 0.01 516758 514750 511742 508738 506728 506723 505718 503715 
      499710 496707 491705 486705 477706 467712 463717 461722 
      457737 453752 451763 448778 446792 443803 440814 436827 
      433837 428846 425852 421855 417860 414862 403866 400866 
      395865 377861 370863 363865 356868 349871 344871 339869 
      330863 322861 313858 303858 293859 282862 271867 263873 
      258880 256884 256889 257895 260899 266905 271909 276913 
      277918 279925 282931 294950 298955 302958 309962 314970 
      316973 319976 328979 328983 326988 325994 328997 332001 
      336003 347006 356007 365008 372011 383015 387019 390024 
      392029 392037 392043 389049 385060 380064 378065 372064 
      369061 366061 366064 369067 373075 374083 379085 392084 
      395087 398086 402083 409082 415082 419084 420087 420091 
      421097 418103 415102 412096 408093 404095 400101 396104 
      390108 386112 383116 381121 382127 385127 394123 398123 
      402124 405126 408131 409137 407142 404138 394141 390143 
      386146 382149 375148 366150 363153 362158 364168 368171 
      366175 362178 357179 348182 339191 337195 335199 334204 
      334212 334218 335225 337229 340233 346236 353242 356244 
      362247 374250 380253 383256 390264 392267 396271 400275 
      406278 417280 427280 436276 444270 448265 451260 455245 
      457240 458236 456233 454231 456227 461227 463225 465220 
      464216 461213 456212 453209 455196 455189 453184 448180 
      442178 438176 436173 435169 437164 442165 445168 450168 
      456163 463161 467162 471160 473159 474154 468144 465142 
      462141 457143 453143 451138 448126 457127 463127 469130 
      471136 474138 481138 486142 489146 493149 496149 496145 
      495140 489135 485131 479124 476118 475114 473106 470102 
      463094 459089 457082 453065 452055 450046 451020 451003 
      454989 467940 474917 478906 483895 488883 494868 505848 
      518822 521815 522810 522807 518787 516778 516772 515762 
      516758 
 0.01 334793 331789 326793 322798 318802 312805 308805 303803 
      296800 287800 283805 285811 292815 299819 308820 313818 
      318814 324808 332801 334793 
 0.01 256807 255801 252799 246800 245803 243807 242812 241815 
      242820 243824 246826 251823 253820 255815 256810 256807 
 0.25 494768 492760 489756 484752 481752 476755 472759 467768 
      463783 460794 454819 449841 445863 441875 437886 433897 
      430903 426907 423910 418914 410910 401890 397886 392882 
      384880 374878 367879 362881 351885 339887 325881 306874 
      297875 291876 287879 282886 281894 283902 287911 291914 
      296916 301916 307915 311916 314919 314924 314930 316937 
      321945 324948 328951 335950 344947 356944 362943 366944 
      372946 376949 378952 377956 376960 373968 369972 364974 
      356978 355981 357984 359987 377996 382998 387002 392009 
      397018 402027 406029 411028 415024 417020 420008 422991