AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
849 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
.UPDATE...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SWD TOWARD             
THE CENTRAL GULF THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS            
FROM SE GA WNW INTO AL. RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG            
THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IN AL. PERSISTENT RAINS N OF THE VLD AREA              
ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND                 
WARMING TEMPS AT MID LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW,             
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL                 
LOWER POPS IN THE EVENING UPDATE, BUT KEEP A 10-20 POP UNTIL                    
MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE MARINE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.                 
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 COMPOSITE              
SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE MS GULF COAST CONTINUING ITS SLOW              
SWD DRIFT. SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND LOW...W/ ONE OFF THE             
PANHANDLE COAST RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. OUTFLOW                   
BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTION MOVED INTO THE FL BIG BEND/FAR SW GA.             
INTERACTION W/ THIS BOUNDARY & THE GULF SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO                 
SPARK ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS. IT APPEARS BEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG             
TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE OVER S/CNTRL GA & ERN BIG BEND WHICH HAVE               
SEEN MORE INSOLATION...W/ CAPES OF 2000+ J/KG & LI'S FROM -4 TO -6.             
12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ CONTINUED SWD PROGRESSION AND                   
WEAKENING OF UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE               
NEXT 12 TO 36 HRS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS GETS              
SUPPRESSED AS S/WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER U.S. SURFACE             
HIGH WEDGES SWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL INCREASE THE                
LOW-LEVEL E-SELY FLOW THRU WED. PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD             
TO NEAR 2" ON WED. COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL            
MOVE THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS EARLY WED....AND INTO NRN GA/AL WED                 
AFTN. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER AL...WHICH WILL SLOW               
ITS SEWD PROGRESS. GFS IS TRENDING A BIT FASTER W/ FRONTAL MOTION               
THAN ETA/NGM. PERIOD OF MAX LIFT/DYNAMICS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR              
BETWEEN 18Z WED & 06Z THU. DECENT INSTABILITY...AMPLE GULF/ATLANTIC             
MOISTURE & SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING             
SHWRS/TSTMS THRU TUE NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL BUT SE            
BIG BEND FOR WED. PCPN ENDS W/ FROPA FROM NW TO SE ON THU. PORTIONS             
OF ERN PANHANDLE RECEIVED 3-5" OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY. ATTM...                   
DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO                  
PRECLUDE A FLOOD WATCH. MODEL BASIN-AVERAGED QPF VALUES DURING THE              
NEXT 48 HRS SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1" W/ ISOLATED 1-2" AMOUNTS                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
.MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR CHANGES TO SHORT TERM FORECAST. SELY                 
WINDS BELOW 15 KTS & SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THRU 48 HRS. WINDS VEER TO               
SW-W ON WED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ON THU AFTER                 
FROPA.                                                                          
.FIRE WEATHER...NO REQUIREMENTS.                                                
.EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKING               
SEASONABLY WARM & DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA             
FROM THE NW PER GFS.                                                            
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 69 86 69 85 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
PFN 72 84 72 83 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
DHN 69 83 69 82 / 40 50 50 60                                                   
ABY 68 84 67 83 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
VLD 68 86 67 85 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
CTY 69 87 68 86 / 30 50 30 50                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MAJ/MAW                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
328 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY...                                                                    
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                
OVER THE INTERIOR MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY             
MOMENTARILY INCREASED BUOY 009/S WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BUT...THE              
WINDS SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ONCE THE EFFECT OF THE               
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH WEARS OFF. CUTOFF LOW OVER LA/MS SLOWLY                
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MS DELTA AND INTO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO              
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES              
TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...NORTH FLORIDA AND               
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.                                              
TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE                  
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER LA/MS AND MOVING TOWARD               
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL DRIER               
AIR AND 500MB RIDGING OVER THE AREA APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING                    
CONVECTION TO A DEGREE AND THE RUC FORECAST AT 20/03Z STILL HAS                 
500MB RIDGING OVER THE PENINSULA. CURRENT 20/30 COASTAL/INTERIOR                
SPLIT OF STORMS LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL CONTINUE THEM LONGER INTO THE               
NIGHT AS THE RIDGING OVER THE PENINSULA WEAKENS.                                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CUTOFF OVER THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO                    
CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH WILL THE RIDGE AXIS                  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST AND INCREASE              
TO 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE ESTABLISHES ITSELF            
IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE              
AGAIN AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.                                          
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND OTHER LONGER TERM MODELS                
STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVE                  
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THEN ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IF             
THIS VERIFIES EXPECT A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND                    
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE/CLIMO DUE TO THE                
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE LAND MASS.                                    
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY/MONDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE WORKS IT WAY               
ALONG THE EAST COAST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND              
GULF OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE               
BAHAMAS.  WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR                
NORTH WE SHOULD BE IN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BY MONDAY.                      
MARINE...AGAIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...EASTERLY WINDS WILL            
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE            
CURRENT 4 TO 5 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL                 
WATERS. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE                 
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVES EAST NORTHEAST. FRIDAY             
THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS               
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA.                                                  
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
DAB BB 072/084 069/084 071 2313                                                 
MCO BB 072/088 069/088 072 3442                                                 
MLB BB 073/086 071/086 073 2313                                                 
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER                                                          
AVIATION/FIRE...SHARP                                                           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
155 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS                    
CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE MS GULF COAST CONTINUING ITS SLOW                    
SWD DRIFT. SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND LOW...W/ ONE                     
OFF THE PANHANDLE COAST RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION.                   
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CONVECTION MOVED INTO THE FL BIG                     
BEND/FAR SW GA. INTERACTION W/ THIS BOUNDARY & THE GULF SEA                     
BREEZE CONTINUES TO SPARK ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS. IT APPEARS                    
BEST THREAT FOR ANY STRONG TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE OVER S/CNTRL                 
GA & ERN BIG BEND WHICH HAVE SEEN MORE INSOLATION...W/ CAPES                    
OF 2000+ J/KG & LI'S FROM -4 TO -6.                                             
MODELS/FORECAST: 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT W/ CONTINUED SWD                  
PROGRESSION & WEAKENING OF UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF                   
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HRS. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE OVER               
THE ERN CONUS GETS SUPPRESSED AS S/WAVE TROUGH SKIRTS ACROSS THE                
NRN TIER U.S. SURFACE HIGH WEDGES SWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST                  
WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL E-SELY FLOW THRU WED. PWAT VALUES             
CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD TO NEAR 2" ON WED. COLD FRONT APPROACHING               
THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE THRU THE OH/TN VALLEYS EARLY                    
WED....AND INTO NRN GA/AL WED AFTN. SURFACE WAVE FORMS ALONG                    
BOUNDARY OVER AL...WHICH WILL SLOW ITS SEWD PROGRESS. GFS IS                    
TRENDING A BIT FASTER W/ FRONTAL MOTION THAN ETA/NGM. PERIOD OF MAX             
LIFT/DYNAMICS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z WED & 06Z THU.               
DECENT INSTABILITY...AMPLE GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE & SEA BREEZES WILL            
KEEP SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHWRS/TSTMS THRU TUE NIGHT.             
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALL BUT SE BIG BEND FOR WED. PCPN ENDS            
W/ FROPA FROM NW TO SE ON THU. PORTIONS OF ERN PANHANDLE RECEIVED               
3-5" OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY. ATTM...DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY             
RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PRECLUDE A FLOOD WATCH. MODEL                     
BASIN-AVERAGED QPF VALUES DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS SHOULD RANGE FROM              
0.5 TO 1" W/ ISOLATED 1-2" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.                                    
MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS OR CHANGES TO SHORT TERM. SELY WINDS BELOW 15             
KTS & SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THRU 48 HRS. WINDS VEER TO SW-W ON WED AHEAD            
OF COLD FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ON THU AFTER FROPA.                            
FIRE WEATHER: NO REQUIREMENTS.                                                  
EXTENDED (FRI-MON): UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND STILL LOOKING                 
SEASONABLY WARM & DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA             
FROM THE NW PER GFS.                                                            
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 69 86 69 85 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
PFN 72 84 72 83 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
DHN 69 83 69 82 / 40 50 50 60                                                   
ABY 68 84 67 83 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
VLD 68 86 67 85 / 40 50 40 60                                                   
CTY 69 87 68 86 / 30 50 30 50                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
210 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR PM ZONES/GRIDS...                                
SHOWERS POPPING UP ALL ACROSS CWA THIS AFTN WHILE MAIN ONSLAUGHT OF             
TSTMS STILL IN IA AND MO. TSTMS CROSSING MS RVR NEAR 7PM ALONG WITH             
COLD FRONT AND REACHING RFD ABT 9PM AND PAST CHI BY MDNGT. SHUD BE              
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS/OVC SKIES INTO MRNG HOURS TUESDAY...THEN CLRG             
IN AFTN AND ERY EVE. SHUD BE A CATEGORICAL EVENT WITH POPS NR                   
100%... DIMINISHING TO 60% IN MRNG.                                             
ETA STILL KEEPING HIGHS IN MID 50S TMRW WHILE AVN/NGM RECOVERING                
TMPS TO AROUND 60. WILL GO WITH THE LATTER CONSIDERING TIME OF YEAR             
AND ASSUMING SOME SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT IN AFTN. MAXES MAY BE LATE IN             
THE DAY. THIS OF COURSE APPLIES TO INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE              
WHICH WUD LIKELY HAVE HIGHS ONLY IN MID 50S AT BEST.                            
CLR SKIES TUE NGT AND RATHER SUNNY FOR WED AS HIGH BUILDING DOWN                
LAKE MICHIGAN. WNDS STILL OFF THE LAKE WED THRU SATURDAY. THUS NO               
70S UNTIL THEN...AND THEN ONLY SOUTH OF I-80.                                   
BROAD UPR RIDGE SLIPPING ACROSS MIDWEST FRIDAY WITH JET DIVING SOUTH            
FROM UPR TO MID MS VLY. SOME SHOWERS PSBL WEST OF CWA BUT KEEPING IT            
SOMEWHAT CLDY BUT DRY UNTIL SUN NGT. AT THAT TIME THAT SAME UPR TROF            
DEEPENS OVER OH VLY AND STARTS RETROGRADING BACK TO SRN MICHIGAN                
WITH FURTHER DEEPENING SUNDAY...THEN TO CHI ON TUESDAY.  WILL BRING             
SHOWERS IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY FOR CHI AREA/NW                
INDIANA.                                                                        
.CHI...NONE                                                                     
RLB                                                                             
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                                
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WESTERN AND NORTH                     
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN A DEFORMATION                   
AREA SEEN ON THE PROFILER DATA AT 700 MB. THERE IS DESTABILIZATION              
OCCURRING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND FAR WEST INTO WESTERN                  
IOWA AND MINNESOTA. THE RUC40 MODEL SHOWS THE CAPE INCREASING                   
2100 UTC TO 0000 UTC THIS EVENING OVER NORTH ILLINOIS.                          
WITH THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY WILL MENTION SHOWERS IN THE                 
THE TAFS FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER 23 UTC.                    
THIS IS FOR ORD...MDW...DPA AND GYY. THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO                   
RFD. WILL FORECAST THE SHOWERS AFTER 20 UTC. THERE IS NO LIGHTNING              
WITH THESE SHOWERS. LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS SHOW THE RAPID INCREASE              
IN INSTABILITY FROM 21 UTC TO 03 UTC. WILL FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR RFD AFTER 02 UTC FOR ALL THE TAFS. THIS FRONT WILL BE NARROW                
WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT. WILL FORECAST NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER                    
06 UTC.                                                                         
WHW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                                
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY IN WESTERN AND NORTH                     
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN A DEFORMATION                   
AREA SEEN ON THE PROFILER DATA AT 700 MB. THERE IS DESTABILIZATION              
OCCURRING AS WELL. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND FAR WEST INTO WESTERN                  
IOWA AND MINNESOTA. THE RUC40 MODEL SHOWS THE CAPE INCREASING                   
2100 UTC TO 0000 UTC THIS EVENING OVER NORTH ILLINOIS.                          
WITH THE SHOWERS DEVELOPING QUICKLY WILL MENTION SHOWERS IN THE                 
THE TAFS FOR THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AFTER 23 UTC.                    
THIS IS FOR ORD...MDW...DPA AND GYY. THE SHOWERS ARE CLOSE TO                   
RFD. WILL FORECAST THE SHOWERS AFTER 20 UTC. THERE IS NO LIGHTNING              
WITH THESE SHOWERS. LIFTED INDEX FORECASTS SHOW THE RAPID INCREASE              
IN INSTABILITY FROM 21 UTC TO 03 UTC. WILL FORECAST THUNDERSTORMS               
FOR RFD AFTER 02 UTC FOR ALL THE TAFS. THIS FRONT WILL BE NARROW                
WITH A RAPID WIND SHIFT. WILL FORECAST NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER                    
06 UTC.                                                                         
WHW                                                                             
PUBLIC FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AM ZONES/GRIDS...                                
NEXT SYSTEM ON TRACK THIS AM AS H5 TROUGH MOVES EAST ALONG CANADIAN             
BORDER ON NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM               
NEAR INL SOUTHWEST TO GLD WITH RW/TRW AHEAD OF FRONT.                           
MODLES STILL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING CLOUD COVER IN AREA THROUGH                
TODAY AND THEN BRINGING PCPN INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA             
AROUND 00Z. FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 06Z IN NORTHEAST IL WITH MAX UVV.             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND             
CONTINUE AFTER FROPA. POST FRONTAL PRECIP LINGERS THROUGH MID                   
MORNING TUESDAY IN EASTERN PORTIONS.                                            
POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO             
20 MPH THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP NOTICEBALY FROM                 
TODAYS AS MAXS ONLY AROUND 60. BROAD SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER CENTRAL             
US/UPPER LAKES AND EEPS WINDS FROM NORTHEAST FOR REMAINDER OF THE               
FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL GENERALLY HOLD CHI TEMPS BLO SLOWLY                   
WARMING TEMPS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA.                                           
BROAD TROUG DEVELOPS ALOFT WITH AXIS THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY. AVN             
INDICATES WAVES ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN PORTION OF TROUGH BY 12Z               
FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE APPEARS IN SHORT SUPPLY SO WORST APPEARS TO BE              
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BUT NO PRECIP. AFTER TONIGHT/TUESDAY AM             
THEN FORECAST IS FOR DRY WX.                                                    
.CHI...NONE                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
FOG BURNING OFF NICELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME WAY TO GO              
IN THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE UPDATED THE               
ZONES TO WORD SKY CONDITION MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS. WILL SEE               
SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AS FOG BURNS OFF WITH MIXING EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250 MB JET OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL ALSO            
PRODUCE SCATTERED CIRRUS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS                    
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA WITH MOISTURE FROM MIDWEST SYSTEM RIDING               
AROUND MIDLEVEL RIDGE.                                                          
HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BASED ON               
RUC CROSS SECTIONS GENERALLY SHOWING MIXING UP TO 850MB WITH                    
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 8-9C BY MID AFTERNOON.                                  
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE                                                                       
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
936 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TIMING OF PCPN ACROSS FCST AREA.             
LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A MID/UPR TROF MOVING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH             
A WELL-DEFINED SHRTWV MOVING INTO ERN MN. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT             
HAS MOVED INTO THE WRN U.P. AND WRN WI WITHIN PAST HR. RADAR LOOP               
INDICATES A SOLID BAND OF SHRA ACCOMPANYING FRONT...AS KIWD AWOS HAS            
RECEIVED 0.36 INCH IN PAST HR. LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG AND AHEAD OF             
FRONT HAVE GENERALLY STAYED SOUTH OVR WI...WHERE RUC INDICATES                  
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF AROUND 100 J/KG CAPE AND LI'S AND SI'S ZERO             
OR NEGATIVE C.                                                                  
QPF VALUES OF 18Z ETA LINES UP WELL WITH RADAR PCPN RETURNS AT                  
PRESENT SO WL USE ETA FOR TIMING STEADY PCPN INTO CNTRL COUNTIES                
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN INTO ERN COUNTIES AROUND 06Z OR AFT. ETA               
AND RUC DEPICT THAT HEAVIEST PCPN WILL FALL WEST OF MQT-CRYSTAL                 
FALLS LINE...WHERE BEST UPR DIV LOCATED IN RRQ OF 100 KT 250 MB JET             
MAX MOVG THRU WRN ONTARIO. UPR DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE               
WKNS AS FRONT MOVES INTO CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES OVRNGT. GIVEN VERY              
LIMITED INSTABILITY...WL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM ALL COUNTIES            
ON UPDATE.                                                                      
POST-FROSTAL WINDS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG NOW AS DIURNAL MIXING HAS               
SUBSIDED...ALTHOUGH STILL HAVE FAIRLY TIGHT GRAD BTWN SFC LOW AND               
CDFNT OVR U.P. AND 1035 MB HIGH BUILDING INTO WY. STILL HAVE GUSTS              
TO 25 KT REPORTED ON SFC OBS OVR MN AND NW WI. FACTORS GOING AGAINST            
REALLY STG WINDS OCCURRING: POST-FRONTAL GRAD WILL BE TIGHTEST                  
LATE TONIGHT WHEN NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETTING UP WILL PREVENT FULL              
MIXING TO SFC AND ALSO ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL ACTUALLY BE                   
PERPENDICULAR TO GRAD WIND. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO APPROACH ADVISORY            
CRITERIA ANYWHERE IN CWA.                                                       
TEMPS GENLY LOOK ON TARGET...SO NO BIG CHANGES THERE.                           
.MQT...FLOOD WARNING MIZ005 ALONG DEAD RIVER FROM SILVER LAKE TO THE            
       CITY OF MARQUETTE AND LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL WATER RECEDES.                 
       GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1140 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
...UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...              
WHILE THERE CURRENTLY IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS                         
AROUND...EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION ON THE COLD FRONT THERE IS A                 
SHORTWAVE THE DOES SHOW UP ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER CNTRL                 
IOWA. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND CROSS THE WARM FRONT (BASED             
ON DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN) WHICH AT               
15Z WAS NEAR CHI TO SBN. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC SHOW A CONSIDERABLE               
INCREASE IN THE MEAN 850 TO 700 RH AS THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WRN             
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT 700 TO 300            
MB DPVA AND DECENT SFC TO 850 THTE ADVECTION AT THE SAME TIME. PWT              
VALUES INCREASE FROM AROUND 1" TO NEAR 1 1/2" OVER THE SW CORNER OF             
THE CWA BY 00Z.  I HAVE TO ADMIT THE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT             
IS FEEBLE THOUGH.  ALSO THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPSTREAM              
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS... SO SURFACE HEATING IS NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR                  
EITHER.  PUTTING ALL OF THIS TOGETHER... I ADDED SCATTERED SHOWERS              
TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CWA (WHERE THE BEST                  
MOISTURE INCREASE IS).  THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY            
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.                       
THE UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1113 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE COLD FRONT            
WHICH WILL APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT            
LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING            
EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA               
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT                   
STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH KDLH AND KOMA TO A LOW            
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. A 328K THETA-E RIDGE STRETCHES THROUGH ILLINOIS            
AND ANOTHER IS OVER COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN                   
MINNESOTA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN                  
VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E RIDGE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN              
IOWA. LAMP GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL THIS                 
MORNING.                                                                        
THE SHORTWAVE WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE            
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL            
REACH WESTERN U.P. BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON. A 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL                   
JET WILL SHIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A               
SURFACE BASE INVERSION WILL LIMIT THESE WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE                
SURFACE. EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP CLOUDY                  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. K-INDEX WILL REACH 34 OVER WESTERN            
U.P. SBCAPE WILL REACH ONLY ABOUT 500J/KG OVER THE WEST. LIFTED                 
INDEX WILL DECREASE TO -2 OVER THE WEST. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING            
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONDITION LOOK                      
FAVORABLE FOR THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.                       
HOWEVER...WITH MARGINAL LI'S AND CAPE...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY                
SEVERE. PLAN TO GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST...ONLY TO TWEAK THE WORDING.           
AS MORE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH OVER              
THE U.P. THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.              
.MQT...FLOOD WARNING MIZ005 ALONG DEAD RIVER FROM SILVER LAKE TO THE            
       CITY OF MARQUETTE AND LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUES UNTIL WATER                
       RECEDES.                                                                 
       GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
345 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
STRNG COLD FRNT 3/4 OF THE WAY THRU THE CWA AND IS THE MAIN CONCERN             
IN MY FCST PACKAGE. FRNT MAKING PROGRESS NOW AS LEAD H7 WAVE LIFTS              
OUT OF IA...AND MAIN H5 TROF MOVES INTO ERN DAKS. ENUFF INSTABILITY             
(SBLI TO -2C/CAPES TO 1000 J/KG/) TO DRIVE SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN              
BEST CONVERGENCE REGION OF FRNT FROM BALDWIN TO DURAND. SUPPOSE                 
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLD SVR EVENT VCTY KEAU THRU                     
23Z...BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR NOT QUITE GREAT ENUFF FOR A             
MORE WIDESPREAD SVR RISK...DESPITE STRONG FORCING BOTH ALOFT IN RRQ             
OF JET AND IN FRONTAL ZONE WITH AID FROM S/W TROFS. BUT RADAR WL BE             
WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY FURTHER DVLPMNT. WL KEEP WND ADVRY IN                   
WCNTL/SCNTL PER CURRENT WIND GUSTS AND CLEARING MOVING IN. NOT                  
SMASHING CRITERIA BY ANY MEANS...BUT ENUFF GUSTS AOA 45MPH TO KEEP              
ADVRY AS BEST PRES RISES MOV THRU PER RUC. XPECT RAINS TO FOCUS MORE            
ON WCNTL WI THIS EVE...AND DIMINISHED POPS AND WORDING TO THE WEST              
AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVR FM WEST TO EAST. WENT ABV GUIDANCE               
MOST AREAS DUE TO WINDS AND AMPLE RAINS OF TDY.                                 
TUE/TUE NIGHT WL BE QUIET AND COOL...AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SFC HI              
PRES MOVS RIGHT OVR CWA. SOME MIXING WINDS IN THE ERN CWA SHUD YIELD            
SOME GUSTS...AND REMNANT LL MOISTURE FIGURES TO POP SOME CU PER CU              
FORMATION RULES. AWFULLY COLD ALOFT...WITH H85 TEMPS HOVERING >5C.              
WENT MORE WITH MAV (WARMER) TEMPS GIVEN IT IS LATE MAY AND ANY SUN              
CAN WARM TEMPS INTO THE 60S PRETTY EASILY. RECENT RAINS/LIGHT                   
WINDS/COLD TEMPS/CLEAR SKIES SPELLS FOR SOME GUD RADIATION FOG                  
FORMING IN AREAS TUE NIGHT...ESP ERN CWA NEAR RIDGE AXIS.                       
WED/WED NIGHT...NICE LITTLE WAVE SPILLS OVR BUILDING WRN RIDGE AND              
DROPS INTO DEVELOPING ERN CONUS TROF WED NIGHT. PRETTY DECENT PV                
ANOMALY WITH WAVE GIVEN NICE H25 80KT JETLET AND LAYER DIVERGENCE.              
MOISTURE WRAPPING ARND BACKSIDE OF BIG SFC HI WILL BE MEAGER BUT                
ENOUGH ALOFT TO DRIVE SOME WAA ACCAS AND SHRA. THIS PLODS ALONG THRU            
CWA WED AFTN AND EVENING.                                                       
RIGHT ON ITS HEELS A BIGGER S/W HELPS CARVE OUT ERN TROF...AND                  
BEGINS TO HELP CLOSE OFF CIRCULATION OVR GREAT LAKES. DISAGREEMENT              
HERE IN MDLS ON WHERE CLOSED CIRC WL DEVELOP...BUT ALL GUIDANCE                 
SUGGEST THIS WILL BE A LARGE/COLD/CLOSED CIRC. WITH STRONG NEG                  
HEIGHT AND TEMP ANOMALIES. SUBSEQUENT SHOWER CHANCES HINGE GREATLY              
ON THIS CIRCULATION'S LOCATION. WENT MORE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...WITH             
BEST CHANCES THUR AND FRI...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST SAT. LOW CONFIDENCE            
HERE.                                                                           
.MSP...WIND ADVISORY THRU 6 PM SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KAXN TO            
KAEL.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
300 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS FLOODING POTENTIAL.                            
THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH CONSIDERABLE FRONTAL AND PRE-FRONTAL RAIN.                     
SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE JUST CROPPED UP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR IN                  
NW WI. MSAS INDICATES -2C LI POKING INTO NW WI...WHICH IS IN                    
LINE WITH THE LATEST RUC FORECAST. THE RUC POINTED TO THIS                      
AREA NICELY THIS MORNING...SO WILL USE IT FOR THE SHORT TERM.                   
WILL USE THE ETA FOR THE LONGER TERM...AS AVN APPEARS TO BE                     
WAY TOO HEAVY ON QPF FOR THURSDAY. CANADIAN AGREES WITH ETA.                    
THE BIG PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE THE FLOOD                         
POTENTIAL IN NW WI. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO CHUG SLOWLY OFF TO                   
THE EAST...BUT WITH SOME TRAINING POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT                  
WE WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE                  
WATER VALUES HOVER AROUND 1.6 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING...                    
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PROBLEMS WITH RIVERS...STREAMS AND                      
FULL DITCHES AND CULVERTS.                                                      
THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING FOR THE               
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...BUT WE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE                 
GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND VORT MAX MOVING OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN              
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS                 
NEAR THE VORT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE IN. THE GROUND WILL ALSO BE WET             
FROM TODAY'S RAINFALL...SO THAT WILL SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING.                    
DON'T THINK FROST WILL BE A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM TONIGHT DUE TO SOME              
WIND. THINK THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE TUESDAY                
NIGHT. OUR OFFICE HAS NOW BEGUN TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES             
FOR THE SEASON...AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY                 
NIGHT IF THINGS COME TOGETHER AS EXPECTED.                                      
MOS TEMPS ARE QUITE VARIED. HAVE WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE                
NIGHTTIME TEMPS...AND ALSO FOR THE DAYTIME TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY.                  
.DLH...FLOOD WATCH WIZ001>004-006>009.                                          
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1115 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
MAIN FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON IS POTENTIAL FLOODING IN NW WI.                    
THE PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED             
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS LATE MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE                 
AFTERNOON HINGES ON THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NW                
WI. COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS THIS MORNING REPORTED SEVERAL AMOUNTS                 
AROUND 1.25 INCHES...FROM BOVEY TO EMILY TO BRAINERD. THE LATEST                
RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LI VALUES WILL DROP TO ABOUT                    
-3C ACROSS NW WI...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.6 INCHES. WITH SUCH             
A SLOW MOVING BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                  
SLOW MOVING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL HANG ON                
TO THE FLOOD WATCH. COULD BE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS ALONG AND                  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL. SINCE THE GROUND HAS NOT HAD A LOT                  
OF TIME TO DRY OUT FROM THE LAST DELUGE...RIVERS AND STREAMS                    
MAY RESPOND RATHER QUICKLY.                                                     
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE VARIED TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY                   
DROPPING HOLDING IN THE 50S IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND REACHING                   
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN NW WI. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STILL                   
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS ALREADY SHOWING                 
UP AT INL AT 16Z.                                                               
.DLH...FLOOD WATCH WIZ001>004-006>009.                                          
$$                                                                              
DAP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
335 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND                  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT...                                                   
THIS AFTERNOON'S WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SHORTWAVE ENERGY                    
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THIS FEATURE HELPED TO DRAG A             
COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. IN                     
ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF                      
MISSOURI.  CONVECTION WAS FIRING BOTH IN ADVANCE AND BEHIND THE                 
FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.  THIS CONVECTION               
DEVELOPED IN A REGION OF STRONG 1000-850 MB F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. NO            
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AFFECTED THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR                 
TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT SGF SHOWED A STRONG CAPPING                          
INVERSION...THIS SUPPRESSED THE MORNING CONVECTION WHICH TRIED TO               
PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  BOTH THE RUC AND MESOETA SHOW THIS            
CAP WEAKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN                 
ADDITION...19Z LAPS DATA SHOWED CAPE VALUES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF             
1000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE SURFACE            
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S.                                      
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND                
WESTERN MISSOURI.  QUITE STRONG 1000-850MB F-VECTOR FORCING WILL BE             
FOUND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITH THIS IN MIND...CONTINUED THE                 
ONGOING LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY            
AND WEAK WIND SHEAR...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW                         
TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE             
PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.                                                      
SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE                             
FRONT...BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.  BUFKIT             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. A STRONG AREA            
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY               
WEDNESDAY...CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO BECOME NEARLY CALM.             
THIS SET UP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN                
ADDITION...A UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.  AT 06Z                
WEDNESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL               
ONLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 DEG C. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS                   
FORECAST...WHICH WAS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS            
RISING IN THIS COLDER SOLUTION...AS 12Z MET GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED                
COOLER.  IT GAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR AIZ AND VIH...DID NOT                
WANT TO GO THAT COLD YET...HOWEVER.  RIGHT NOW I THINK RECORD LOWS              
ARE SAFE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL                    
MISSOURI.  FORECAST LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE            
OZARKS...WITH MIDDLE 40S ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  WITH GOOD               
RADIATIONAL COOLING...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED FROST COULD OCCUR       
IN VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS...THESE LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE              
UPPER 30S.                                                                      
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY...                                       
SGF  36 (1892)       UNO  36 (1954)                                             
JLN  40 (1968)       VIH  40 (2002)                                             
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DAYS 4 THROUGH 7 (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)               
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  BOTH           
MODELS DEPICT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OZARKS REGION AS AN UPPER                 
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY            
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE UPPER         
MIDWEST.  THE GFS PRODUCES A CUT-OFF LOW AND SHOWS THIS FEATURE                 
DRIFTING OVER THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.             
IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ACROSS CANADA              
AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  ALL IN ALL...NOTHING CONCRETE IN THE               
LATEST DATA THAT WOULD INDICATE ADDING POPS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH             
SUNDAY...DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE GOING GRIDS.                                
$$                                                                              
SAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
909 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
CURRENT OBS SHOW PERSISTENT COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER              
LAYERS WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED TODAY.  CROSS               
SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF OBSERVED DATA AND SHORT RANGE MODEL                       
PROJECTIONS FROM THE RUC SHOW SUBSIDENCE BEGINNING IN THE NORTHEAST             
AROUND WAL THIS MORNING AND WORKING SOUTHWEST INTO THE RAH CWA THIS             
AFTERNOON.   THIS TURNS CURRENT CONFLUENT UPGLIDE FLOW ON THE                   
300-310K THETA SURFACES TO SINKING MOTION.  LINGERING RAIN SHOULD               
DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND            
WEST...BUT A FEW BREAKS TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED NORTHEAST            
OF ROXBORO TO RDU TO WILSON THIS AFTERNOON.   UPDATED FORECASTS WILL            
REFLECT THESE TRENDS.                                                           
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
RFG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA                                        
820 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH                  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                       
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT...                    
ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS INSTABILITIES            
WEAKEN. WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PORTIONS             
OF CENTRAL... NORTHERN AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND THE WESTERN                
PART OF NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC RUN INDICATING                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COINCIDING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITIES... WILL            
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS IN THESE AREAS. GUSTY NORTH                 
WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...                
ALTHOUGH THE OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL SUBSIDE.               
FCSTID = 32                                                                     
______________________________________________                                  
343 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                      
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST                   
AREA... EXTENDING FROM NEAR ENID TO ALTUS AT 3 PM.  THE FRONT SHOULD            
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT... AND WILL PROVIDE A              
NICE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG              
CAP TO OVERCOME... BUT ELEVATED STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN OUR               
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL                
THIS EVENING... SO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD NOT BE TOO               
DIFFICULT OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA.  SOME HEAVY RAIN IS              
LIKELY IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES... FROM ABOUT ARDMORE TO                    
COALGATE AND EAST FROM THERE... BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST            
OF THAT WOULD BE READILY SOAKED UP BY THE SOIL.                                 
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT... DRIZZLE AND STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE            
COMMON.  WILL ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE DRIZZLE IN THE ZONE FORECAST... AND            
IT IS IN THE GRIDS.                                                             
BEYOND TONIGHT... RATHER FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECASTS.                
THE NEW GFS/MRF HAS A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDWEST IN THE LATER             
PERIODS... BUT THERE IS NO OTHER SUPPORT FOR THAT IDEA.  HAVE                   
ELECTED TO ADJUST FOR A MORE NORTHEASTERN POSITION FOR THE CUTOFF               
LOW... AND A LESS-INTENSE ONE.  THIS BRINGS US RIGHT BACK TO THE                
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
OKC   55   69   50   74  / 40    0   10    0                                    
HBR   52   69   49   75  / 20   10   10    0                                    
SPS   59   72   52   76  / 50   30   30   20                                    
GAG   44   65   45   73  / 20    5    0    0                                    
PNC   52   65   47   73  / 40   10    0    0                                    
DUA   65   73   55   76  / 60   30   30   20                                    
FORECAST ID = 23                                                                
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2003                                                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST               
SKIES OVER THE CWFA...EXCEPT FOR SOME BREAKS ALONG THE FRENCH BROAD             
VALLEY TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER. AREA SOUNDINGS REVEAL ABUNDANT              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR TODAY DESPITE THE              
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL DRY             
AIR PUMPING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE              
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIPS SLOWLY            
SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD               
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FROM THE NORTHEAST. WEDGE FRONT...OR                  
BOUNDARY BETWEEN REALLY JUICY AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...CONTINUES A                
SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD. WITHIN THE DAMMING REGION...THERE RESIDE A FEW            
SURFACE TROFS...OR WIND SHIFT AXES...WHICH OCCASIONALLY MAKE                    
THEMSELVES KNOWN ON THE RADAR IMAGERY IN THE WAY OF BOUNDARIES                  
AND/OR ATTEMPTED ORGANIZED LINES OF LIGHT RAIN.                                 
PRECIPITATBLE WATER ON THE FFC SOUNDING THIS MORNING VERY HIGH.                 
LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA BOTH PROG A FLATTENING UPPER VORT TO ROTATE              
AROUND THIS LOW...WITH BOTH MODELS PRODUCING A LINE OF AFTERNOON                
CONVECTION FROM NORTH GEORGIA SOUTH ALONG THE WEAK WEDGE FRONT INTO             
SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE                
NORTH TODAY...AND MAY GET AN ENHANCEMENT FROM THE BACK SIDE OF                  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC.                                
FOR THE UPDATE...DECIDED TO KEEP 50 POPS IN TH3 SOUTHWEST CWFA...AND            
TAPER OFF TO 30S EASTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND THE                     
CHARLOTTE AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF                       
RAIN/DRIZZLE WORDING...ALTHOUGH COULD NOT RULE OUT A CONVECTIVE                 
ELEMENT OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY HEATING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE            
MINIMAL. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 EVERYWHERE                  
TODAY...EXCEPT 15 TO 20 FROM THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND            
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. WITH FEW...IF ANY...BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST                   
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDED LOWER ON MAX TEMPS...OPENING UP A             
RANGE OF 60 TO 65 MOST AREAS...WITH 61 TO 66 FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA              
AND THE MAJORITY OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.                                     
FCSTID =   44                                                                   
GSP   63  56  73  61 /  40  30  40  60                                          
AND   64  57  74  62 /  50  30  50  60                                          
CLT   63  56  72  61 /  30  20  20  50                                          
HKY   62  54  72  60 /  30  20  30  60                                          
AVL   63  54  71  57 /  40  30  60  80                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
320 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS            
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WISCONSIN             
INTO SE MISSOURI. AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD                
FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A REGION OF DEEP                   
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL            
SPEED MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSES                 
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAD AMPLE                  
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD                        
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5                 
INCHES ALSO EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                                   
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER             
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. BASED ON AREAL             
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ON UPSTREAM RADARS...CATEGORICAL WORDING                
STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. SOME DRYER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE                
EASTERN LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MID LEVEL             
RIDGE AXIS NOW DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SEEMS TO BE                  
CONFINING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE COLD                
FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD                    
RAINFALL TO AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.            
THE ETA SOLUTION IS A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER AT BRINGING THE SURFACE               
FRONT THROUGH TODAY IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS. BASED ON THE CURRENT              
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION...THE SLIGHTLY                
SLOWER ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS...THE FRONT            
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND               
12Z AND EXIT TO THE EAST OF PORT HURON AROUND 18Z. CAPE COMPUTED                
FROM 925MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A COUPLE HUNDRED JULES THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES PROGGED AROUND -1C. THIS WILL                  
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE NON                  
EXISTENT THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WILL JUST BE TOO WEAK.                           
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA IN THE             
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL NEARLY 10            
DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION WILL BOOST MIXING HEIGHTS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ETA MODEL             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IN THE 2K TO 4K FT LAYER WILL REMAIN                
TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF              
THE NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HOWEVER SUGGESTS A RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST             
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH SATELLITE               
DATA SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...I WILL            
LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD MOS AND HAVE SKIES CLEAR DURING THE                    
EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN                  
SHOULD PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING. I WILL THUS KEEP             
FCST LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE (UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH) AND NOT            
MENTION FROST.                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR STILL LOOKS POISED TO PUSH               
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOL AND DRY                    
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH THE CURRENT ZONE AND GRIDDED                
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A FROST POTENTIAL            
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER. WITH THE ETA INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS               
MOVING IN AND SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF 20KTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT...I WILL KEEP FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER              
30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING FROST AT THIS TIME             
EXCEPT FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTHERN THUMB.                
FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THE               
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.                                                  
THE GFS HAS TRENDING FASTER AT DEVELOPING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A POTENT            
SHORT WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE UKMET            
AND TO A GREATER DEGREE THE ETA MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...I WILL NOT ADD PRECIP TO FRIDAY AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
320 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP/RUC ANLSYS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV MOVG E THRU              
THE NRN PLAINS AND CRASHING INTO HI AMPLITUDE RDG OVR ERN NAMERICA.             
ASSOCIATED SHARP SFC COLD FNT NOW ENTERING WRN CWA AT 03Z WITH A                
BAND OF SHRA IN ADVANCE OF FNT AND FOCUSED ON PREFRONTAL TROF                   
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV THAT MOVED NE IN SWLY AHD OF              
STRGR NRN PLAINS SHRTWV. SOME OF THE RA HAS BEEN HVY...IWD RECORDED             
0.36 INCH/ONE HR...WITH PCPN INTENSITY ENHANCED BY PWAT APRCHG 1.50             
INCH (200 PCT NORMAL) AND LIFT IN RRQ OF 100+ KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING             
NE THRU FAR NW ONTARIO INTO HUDSON BAY. DESPITE MSTR/DYNAMICS...NO              
LTG OBSVD ACRS CWA WITH CONSIDERABLE SC IN SLY FLOW AHD OF TROF/FNT             
LIMITING DAYTIME HTG/LLVL DESTABILIZATION. DLH 88D/SFC OBS TO W                 
INDICATE SHRA COVG DECREASES TO SCT BEHIND SFC FNT...WITH IMPRESSIVE            
DRY ADVCTN AT H5 IN DRY SLOT OF NRN PLAINS SHRTWV OFFSETTING LIFT.              
00Z BIS/INL SDNGS HOWEVER INDICATE HIER LWR TROP MSTR LINGERS WELL              
BEHIND SFC FNT...WITH SFC OBS SHOWING SC CIGS AS FAR W AS ND AT 03Z             
TO H85 THERMAL TROF AXIS. 00Z YQD SDNG IS QUITE A BIT DRIER. TEMPS              
FALL OFF SHARPLY BEHIND SFC FNT...WITH 04Z TEMP AT DLH ALREADY DOWN             
TO 43. NW WNDS BEHIND THE FNT ARE GUSTING AS HI AS 30-35 MPH IN                 
ADVANCE OF 1034MB SFC HI PRES IN THE WRN SD. LLVL DESTABILIZATION WL            
ALSO THOROUGHLY MIX HIER MOMENTUM                                               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE PCPN/CLD/WND TRENDS. FOCUS FOR LATER PDS            
TURNS TO TEMPS WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.                      
00Z MODELS SHOW NRN PLAINS SHRTWV LIFTING NE INTO ONTARIO TDAY. ETA             
SHOWS SFC FNT CLRG ERY BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME AND BACK EDGE OF DEEPER            
H85-5 MSTR/H4-2 DVGC/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/AND H7 UVM PASSING E OF ERN            
CWA BTWN 12Z-18Z...BUT WITH H5 HIER VORT AXIS/H85 THERMAL TROF                  
HANGING BACK AND NOT REACHING IWD UNTIL 18Z AND ERY UNTIL 00Z. SO               
EVEN THOUGH FCST FIELDS SUG PCPN WL END OVR THE ERN CWA THIS MRNG...            
XPCT SC CIGS TO PERSIST UNTIL H85 THERMAL TROF PASSES WITH DIURNAL              
HTG/DESTABILIZATION MAINTAINING SC CIGS DESPITE LLVL DRYING UNDER               
STRENGTHENING MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN. XPCT GUSTY WNDS IN ADVANCE              
OF H85 THERMAL TROF ARRIVAL WITH ENHANCED MIXING OF MOMENTUM TO SFC.            
ETA SHOWS H925 WND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 30-35KT...SO WL CARRY WINDY                
WORDING IN ALL ZNS. MODELS SHOW PRES GRADIENT SLACKENING OVR THE W              
1/2 LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF H85 THERMAL TROF...SO WNDS            
SHUD DIMINISH STEADILY THIS AFTN THERE BUT CONT HI ALL DAY ACRS THE             
E 1/2. UPSTREAM MAX TEMPS YDAY GENERALLY ARND 50...XPCT COOLER                  
READINGS ACRS THE E DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP WITH NW FLOW AND HIER MAX              
ACRS THE DOWNSLOPING SCNTRL AND ACRS THE W WELL INLAND FM LK SUP AND            
NR THE WI BORDER WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS AFTN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF              
THERMAL TROF.                                                                   
FOR TNGT...MODELS SHOW SFC HI PRES BLDG TO SRN WI BY 12Z WED. AS                
THERMAL TROF PASSES E OF CWA ARND 00Z AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS...             
XPCT LINGERING SC TO DISSOLVE QUICKLY AND WINDS OVR THE E TO                    
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG. SINCE INCOMING AIRMASS QUITE DRY             
(PWAT FCST DOWN ARND 0.25 INCH) AND SKIES WL BCM CLR...POTENTIAL FOR            
TEMP TO FALL OFF SHARPLY TOWARD AFTN DWPTS XPCTD TO BE IN 25 TO 30              
RANGE. LOOKS LIKE GOOD BET FOR MINS TO FALL BLO FRZG INLAND OVR                 
ENTIRE CWA XCPT THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT             
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT/WLY FLOW DURG NGT BTWN SFC HI TO THE S AND LO             
PRES TROFFING ACRS ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV MOVG E THRU NEARLY            
ZONAL FLOW ALF.                                                                 
SFC HI PRES PROGGED TO LINGER OVR THE CNTRL LKS ON WED. BUT UPR FLOW            
REMAINS WNW...AND SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR SFC TROFFING IN ONTARIO                
TNGT FCST TO MOVE TOWARD WRN LK SUP. ALTHOUGH LWR TROP WL REMAIN                
MUCH TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN (OR EVEN CU PER ETA FCST SDNGS) WITH                  
GENERAL ACYC SW FLOW...BOTH ETA/GFS INDICATE AN INCRS IN MID/UPR RH             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER ZNS CLOSER            
TO TRACK OF THIS SYS AND FARTHER N OF SFC RDG AXIS. SUSPECT SKIES WL            
REMAIN MOSUNNY ACRS THE S...BUT WL GO WITH SCT-BKN AC FCST FOR THE              
NRN TIER DURG THE AFTN PER ETA/GFS MOS UNDER SUBTLE H5 THERMAL TROF.            
ETA/GFS SHOW H85 TEMPS ARND 4C...AND MIXING TO H85-8 WOULD SUPPORT              
GOING MAX TEMPS IN 60 TO 65 RANGE. ACYC SW FLOW DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH             
LK SUP MODERATION...BUT TEMPS WL BE COOLER NR THE LK MI SHORE.                  
CWA PROGGED TO REMAIN IN LGT ACYC SW FLOW WED NGT UNDER WEAK UPR                
TROFFING AND SLOW-MOVG SHRTWV. COMBINATION OF INCRSG SW FLOW...                 
ESPECIALLY OVR THE WRN TIER...AND SCT-BKN AC WL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP              
FALL AND HOLD READINGS UP AT LEAST SVRL DEGREES HIER THAN TNGT.                 
AREAS ACRS THE SCNTRL WL LIKELY SEE THE LOWEST MINS CLOSER TO THE               
SFC HI CENTER AND THE LIGHTEST WNDS.                                            
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...FLOOD WARNING MIZ005 ALONG DEAD RIVER FROM SILVER LAKE TO THE            
       CITY OF MARQUETTE AND LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL WATER RECEDES.                 
       GALE WARNING E HALF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                     
STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF DETROIT AND                        
INDIANAPOLIS...WHILE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF             
HIGH PRESSURE. THE 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN/MOVE EAST                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL                    
MOISTURE TO ADVECT EASTWARD. RAIN LOCATED IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH               
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO ENTER CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.               
LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE             
AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                                
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO TWEAK CLOUD WORDING. TEMPERATURES/WINDS LOOK              
ON TARGET GIVEN RUC CROSS SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS.                               
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE                                                                       
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1106 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                     
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE FORECAST IS THE WINDS.                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RATHER PRONOUNCED                     
SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE            
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS                   
SHORTWAVE ARE WEAKER SHORTWAVES OVER MONTANA AND IDAHO. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS INDICATE A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND LOWER                   
MICHIGAN. WITH A BROAD HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT OVER THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. A 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
MORNING.                                                                        
BY LATE AFTERNOON THE HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER             
VALLEY. AS IT DOES...IT WILL RELAX THE GRADIENTS OVER THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES AND THUS ALLOWING THE WINDS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. THE             
LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL MOVE OVER THE SOO BY              
LATE AFTERNOON. AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS                
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SUN...WHICH WILL GENERATE            
SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON VISIBLE                  
IMAGERY. KINL SOUNDING SHOWING A SHARP INVERSION AT 800MB WHICH                 
SUPPORTS LIMITING CONVECTION. COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE AND              
SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD INCREASE THE WINDS MIXING TO SURFACE. THUS             
WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG EARLY...THEN TAPERING OFF OVER THE WEST AS               
THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SKIES SHOULD            
CLEAR. COLD AIR ADVECTION ENHANCED BY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW            
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT.                                
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1050 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                     
SURFACE ANALYSIS/METARS SHOW COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS LOWER            
MICHIGAN. MAIN BAND OF PRECIP LEADING THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY                    
CLEARING THE EASTERN CWA PER REGIONAL RADARS. SCATTERED LIGHT                   
SHOWERS EXTEND BACK ACROSS WESTERN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW                
LIGHTNING STRIKES PICKED UP JUST SOUTH AND JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IN             
THE HEAVIER PRECIP. MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT            
WITH SHOWALTERS NEAR 0C...WHICH IS ALMOST THROUGH THE CWA. WILL NEED            
TO CARRY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MARINE AREAS FOR A FEW MORE             
HOUS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PULL THEM FROM THE LAND ZONES. EXPECT A            
FEW MORE HOURS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG/BEHIND               
THE FRONT...THEN DRY ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN.                                 
VIS/IR SATELLITE SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND                  
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. SOME MOISTURE TRYING TO WRAP IN FROM NORTHERN                
MINNESOTA...BUT THAT WILL NOT AFFECT US UNTIL TONIGHT. FOR THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...12Z ETA/RUC INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND              
DRYING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE LOW-LEVEL             
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /BELOW 850-900MB INVERSION/ TO 5C-8C...WHILE               
MID-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /GENERALLY 700MB-500MB/ CLIMB TO 40C             
BY 00Z THIS EVENING PER BOTH RUC/ETA. WITH SOME LINGERING LOW-LEVEL             
MOISTURE...MAY SEE CU FILL IN AFTER SKIES CLEAR OUT...WHICH IS                  
ALREADY BEGINNING TO HAPPEN ACROSS WISCONSIN/IOWA. WILL HOLD ON TO              
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST/BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY NORTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY            
CLEAR OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT.                                                    
MORNING RAOBS SHOW A DECENT THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
COLD FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM 11-12C AT                    
DTX/ILX/APX TO 7C AT GRB/DVN...AND DOWN TO -4C AT MPX. MAIN THERMAL             
TROUGH MOVES OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION              
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA ARE             
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S...BUT STATIONS ACROSS WESTERN LOWER HAVE               
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE 50S...WHICH IS ALSO SEEN ACROSS WISCONSIN.             
WILL CONTINUE THE FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.                               
BRAVENDER                                                                       
FULL MORNING DISCUSSION...                                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS            
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN WISCONSIN             
INTO SE MISSOURI. AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD                
FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A REGION OF DEEP                   
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL            
SPEED MAX CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSES                 
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HAD AMPLE                  
MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO 500MB TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD                        
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5                 
INCHES ALSO EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.                                   
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER             
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST. BASED ON AREAL             
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ON UPSTREAM RADARS...CATEGORICAL WORDING                
STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. SOME DRYER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OVER THE                
EASTERN LAKES REGION RESULTING FROM SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE MID LEVEL             
RIDGE AXIS NOW DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN LAKES SEEMS TO BE                  
CONFINING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE COLD                
FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD                    
RAINFALL TO AN HOUR OR TWO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.            
THE ETA SOLUTION IS A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER AT BRINGING THE SURFACE               
FRONT THROUGH TODAY IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS. BASED ON THE CURRENT              
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND THE LATEST RUC SOLUTION...THE SLIGHTLY                
SLOWER ETA SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. BASED ON THIS...THE FRONT            
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND               
12Z AND EXIT TO THE EAST OF PORT HURON AROUND 18Z. CAPE COMPUTED                
FROM 925MB ON MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A COUPLE HUNDRED JULES THIS                 
MORNING...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES PROGGED AROUND -1C. THIS WILL                  
CERTAINLY SUPPORT THUNDER. SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS TO BE NON                  
EXISTENT THOUGH AS INSTABILITY WILL JUST BE TOO WEAK.                           
STRONG SUBSIDENCE/ISENTROPIC DESCENT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA IN THE             
WAKE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL NEARLY 10            
DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG COLD AIR                    
ADVECTION WILL BOOST MIXING HEIGHTS...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AT THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION. ETA MODEL             
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IN THE 2K TO 4K FT LAYER WILL REMAIN                
TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THROUGH MUCH OF              
THE NIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HOWEVER SUGGESTS A RAPID CLEARING FROM WEST             
TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH SATELLITE               
DATA SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...I WILL            
LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD MOS AND HAVE SKIES CLEAR DURING THE                    
EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN                  
SHOULD PREVENT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM DECOUPLING. I WILL THUS KEEP             
FCST LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE (UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH) AND NOT            
MENTION FROST.                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR STILL LOOKS POISED TO PUSH               
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOL AND DRY                    
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK...WHICH THE CURRENT ZONE AND GRIDDED                
FORECAST HAS COVERED WELL. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE A FROST POTENTIAL            
ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT            
WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER. WITH THE ETA INDICATING SOME HIGH CLOUDS               
MOVING IN AND SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF 20KTS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA                 
THROUGH THE NIGHT...I WILL KEEP FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER              
30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING FROST AT THIS TIME             
EXCEPT FOR CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN THE NORTHERN THUMB.                
FROST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THE               
NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST PERIODS.                                                  
THE GFS HAS TRENDING FASTER AT DEVELOPING A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER              
THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ALSO BRINGS A POTENT            
SHORT WAVE AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH THE UKMET            
AND TO A GREATER DEGREE THE ETA MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THE                 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...I WILL NOT ADD PRECIP TO FRIDAY AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
930 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT MAX CROSSING LAKE ERIE AND                 
EASTERN OHIO POSE A SMALL CHC OF SHOWERS FOR THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND             
ERN FINGER LAKES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFT 4 PM. RUC40 AND 06Z ETA              
ARE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN GUIDANCE YDY...AS STRIPE OF HIGHER                 
DWPTS ADVECTS IN. TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S...BUT THERE                    
CONTINUES TO BE A SUBSIDENCE CAP BTWN 800-700 MB. ELEVATED INSTAB               
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND BEST UL FORCING SHEARS AWAY TO OUR NORTH...SO AT             
THIS POINT WILL JUST INCLUDE CHC FEW SHRA AND NO THUNDER FOR ZONES              
WEST OF AN ELM-AUBURN LINE.  ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE SPARSE AND QUICK            
HITTING TONIGHT...LIKELY OVER BY DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO SPEED THINGS             
UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DO THAT AFT 12Z GUIDANCE DIGESTED.                
BREWSTER                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
DEEPENING TROF OVER DAKOTAS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO              
WI. THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT OVER N IL AND WI INVOF SHORT WAVE                
RIDING OVER SHARP TEMP GRADIENT. MEANWHILE FAIR WEATHER RIDGE IS                
POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN US WITH WARM DRY AIR FLOWING FROM TX            
TO MIDATLANTIC REGION.                                                          
INITIAL THOUGHT THIS AM IS AVN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLING THE                  
DIGGING TROF TO THE WEST...BUT IS A BIT FAST WITH ITS EASTWARD                  
PROGRESSION. FAVOR AVN PARAMETERS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF              
THE EASTERN RIDGE AND THE HIGH 850MB TD DEPRESSIONS.                            
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WARM SPRING DAY WITH ONLY CI TO DEAL WITH            
AS IT RIDES DOWN THE RIDGE.                                                     
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SHOWERS ACROSS FA.              
LACK OF SIG SHORT WAVE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THUNDER WILL NOT BE A                
THREAT. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. TROF SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD AND MUCH              
OF EASTERN US GOES ZONAL THEREAFTER. LOOKS LIKE RESIDUAL SHOWERS                
EARLY WED BUT WE DRY OUT AS DAY PROGRESSES. FAVOR WARMER/LOWER POP              
SOLN OF MAV GUIDANCE.                                                           
GROWING AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR A DRY THURSDAY. WILL UPDATE THIS             
DAY BUT LEAVE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED TO NEXT SHIFT WHEN NEW MRF IS               
AVAILABLE.                                                                      
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
PADAVONA                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
135 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 COMPOSITE SHOWS FORMER                    
MID/UPPER LOW NOW AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.                 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/ THIS FEATURE IS DISORGANIZED. COOL WEDGE               
STILL EVIDENT ON SURFACE ANALYSIS W/ LEADING EDGE OF E-NELY                     
LOW-LEVEL FLOW I.E. "BACKDOOR" FRONT FROM NE FL INTO SW AL. ABOUT A             
10-DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE CWFA. VISIBLE IMAGERY                
SHOWS BREAKS IN LOW CEILINGS N OF BOUNDARY. CLOUDS ERODING OVER ERN             
GA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTING SWWD. NEAREST CONVECTION WAS ISOLATED OVER            
OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.                                                            
MODELS: MODELS MAINTAIN A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEMISE OF THE H5 LOW               
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO & DEVELOPMENT OF MEAN TROUGH OVER               
THE ERN CONUS AFT 36 HRS...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEVERAL VORT MAXIMA TO              
TRANSLATE ESE INTO THE SERN CONUS. BACKDOOR FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE            
LITTLE...BISECTING THE CWFA FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY                
WILL LIFT N OF CWFA ON WED AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG AN                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SW AL. GFS PLACEMENT OF LOW IS SLIGHT E             
OF ETA'S POSITION & IS DEEPER. THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD...INVOF DHN             
BY 12Z THU & INVOF VLD BY 00Z FRI. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT X-SECTIONS SHOW            
PERIOD OF MAX LIFT/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 18Z WED & 18Z THU.               
PWAT VALUES STAY RATHER HIGH (1.5-2.0")...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL             
IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW GIVEN MINIMAL                  
INSOLATION...WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT. COLD FRONT                   
PROGGED TO MOVE THRU CWFA THU NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING            
OF MID/UPPER LEVELS ON FRI.                                                     
FORECAST: WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED POPS ALL BUT FAR SE TONIGHT.                 
HIGH LIKELY POPS A SURE BET OVER ALL BUT FAR SE WED/WED NIGHT.                  
ON THU...SCATTERED W/LOW LIKELY POPS E. POPS TAPER OFF TO SLIGHT                
CHANCE W/CHANCE E THU NIGHT. NIL POPS FOR FRI. CLOUD COVER & PCPN               
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.                   
MARINE: WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FROM ELY TO SLY DURING NEXT 24 HRS.                
WINDS INCREASE A TAD...BUT STAY BELOW CRITERIA AS LOW OVER AL                   
MOVES INTO GA & COLD FRONT ENTERS WRN LEGS THU AFTN. WINDS BECOME               
NWLY AFTER FROPA THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. NLY WINDS BACK AROUND             
TO THE W/SW AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N ON SUN.                  
FIRE WEATHER: NO REQUIREMENTS.                                                  
EXTENDED (SAT-TUE): HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LOWER            
48 W/ MID/UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES & UPSTREAM            
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT SEWD TOWARD THE            
CWFA SUN. THIS FRONT SLOWS ITS FORWARD MOTION MEMORIAL DAY & STALLS             
NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS ON TUE AS MAIN DYNAMICS LIFT WELL TO THE NE             
& H5 FLOW PARALLELS THE FRONT. MOISTURE W/ THIS FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL            
& WILL INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN.                      
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:                                                   
TLH 68 84 69 83 / 30 60 70 60                                                   
PFN 70 82 70 82 / 40 60 70 50                                                   
DHN 68 80 67 81 / 50 70 70 40                                                   
ABY 66 81 67 81 / 30 60 70 60                                                   
VLD 67 83 69 82 / 30 60 70 60                                                   
CTY 67 84 69 83 / 20 40 50 60                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
   COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE DECENT PROGRESS ACROSS EAST TX WITH             
TEMPS DROPPING AROUND 10 DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.             
FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST PUSH AND ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES                
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.                            
   AS FAR AS POPS... LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVERGENCE AS NORTH WINDS            
EVIDENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG CAP NOTED AROUND 700MB                    
HELPING TO SQUASH PRECIP. MCS OVER NORTH TX FALLING APART BUT                   
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PROGGED BY MESOETA AND RUC TO MOVE INTO                    
SOUTHEAST TX THIS EVENING ALONG WITH FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP ERODE              
THE CAPE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. 850MB               
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THRU WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH              
WEAK SHORTWAVE TO LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN FORECAST FOR                   
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
  DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND STICK AROUND             
THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS SUNDAY                   
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN OF              
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE.                                                    
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH 67 82 64 85 / 30 20 10 00                                                  
KBPT 67 82 65 85 / 30 20 10 00                                                  
KAEX 64 79 60 82 / 30 20 10 00                                                  
KLFT 67 79 64 85 / 30 30 10 00                                                  
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
99                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
220 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2003                                                      
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE IN THE PROCESS OF                  
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES AT PRESSTIME...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER           
AIRMASS IN PLACE IS ERODING ITS LEADING EDGE. FURTHER TO THE WEST...            
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH DTX AND IS NOW SET TO CROSS LAKE ERIE           
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.                                                           
THE AIRMASS BETWEEN THE PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT            
IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH LI'S OF ZERO TO +2...BUT STRONG                
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR           
-SHRA. CURRENT MSAS ANALYSES AND RUC40 FORECASTS SHOW THIS                      
CONVERGENCE RATHER WELL...WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE HELPING TO           
FURTHER DESTABLIZE THINGS. TREND OF THE U.S. AND CANADIAN RADARS IS             
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE ACTIVITY. WILL THUS GO WITH HIGH            
LIKELY POPS FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.                            
THERE IS A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH              
CLEAR SKIES BEING OBSERVED FROM LK MICHIGAN WESTWARD. THIS ALIGNS               
VERY WELL WITH -VV RUC40 FORECASTS. THIS CLEARING SHOULD WORK ACROSS            
WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                                
FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI              
VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OUR FORECAST AREA. DEEP            
DRY AIR AND PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A SUN FILLED            
DAY ALTHOUGH H8 TEMPS OF +2 TO +4 WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW            
NORMAL.                                                                         
THE SFC HIGH WILL THEN SET UP SHOP OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER SPELL OF GENERALLY               
COOL AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE                
TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THOUGH BECAUSE A LOOK FURETHER DOWN THE ROAD SHOWS           
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM FRIDAY           
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN FACT...IT COULD GET                    
DOWNRIGHT UGLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH FREQUENT             
BOUTS OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL.                          
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
RSH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny