AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
959 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
MAIN CONCERN WL BE OUR DEFORMATION ZN PCPN AFFECTS FA OVNGT.  WATER             
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SPLIT LG WV TROF MOVG THRU CNTRL CONUS WITH SHRT            
WV AXIS JUST ENTERING EXTRM NWRN IA...AND SRN SYS PUSHING THRU                  
OK/KS.  00Z RUC CONTS TREND OF PUSHING SRN CIRCULATION TO JUST S OF             
STL EARLY TMRW.  EXTRAPOLATION OF IR STLT TRENDS BRINGS DEFORMATION             
ZN PCPN TWRD DSM ARND 08Z WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCEMENT AND MOST                 
SGFNT UVM TWRD KOTM.  00Z RUC SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES                 
SUGGEST CHG TO ALL SNW IN CNTRL IA BY 09Z AND THEN TWRD KOTM ARND               
12Z.  ROAD AND SFC TEMPS TOO WRM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATIONS IN SERN ZNS             
BUT GRASSY AREAS COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO AFT MELTING BASED ON RUC               
QPF.  IT WOULD NOT LAST LONG HWVR.  ALSO PUSHED PCPN MORE INTO SUN              
BASED ON 00Z RUC AND CURRENT RADAR/STLT TRENDS.                                 
LOWERED TEMPS A CATEGORY IN SOME NRN ZNS AND ADJUSTED WNDS TO FIT               
CURRENT WX.                                                                     
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 042019  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
318 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
...THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON...                 
ALL MODELS IN AMAZING AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...RUC MAY HAVE A LITTLE                
BETTER TRACK OF ONGOING SHORT TERM TRENDS. SATELLITE AND PROFILERS              
BIG HELP IN FORMING FORECAST DECISION TOO. APPEARS STRONGEST WINDS              
AT JET LVL HAVE ROUNDED BASE OF TROF AND ARE BEGINNING TO NUDGE ON              
EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM. THUS AM CONCERNED THAT DRY SLOT WILL OVERTAKE              
ERN PTN OF CWA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN LATER TONIGHT.                    
LIKEWISE...BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD BE OVER NWRN PTN OF               
CWA. SFC LOW MAY BE TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAN ALL MODELS               
SHOW...LIKEWISE UPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING             
AND LIGHT RAIN WOULD PRECLUDE INITIAL ACCUMULATIONS ONCE SNOW                   
BEGINS.                                                                         
SOME CSI EARLY IN FORECAST PD BUT THIS DIMINISHES AS TIME WEARS ON              
AND TEMPERATURES FALL. SOME NEGATIVE EPV THROUGH THE NIGHT SO                   
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL STILL THERE ESP. ERN PTN OF CWA. FLAMING                   
MESSAGE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL LOOPS IS THE DRY SLOT INTO MUCH OF WRN              
OK ATTM. RUC ALSO HAS A FAIRLY GOOD GRIP ON THIS DRY SLOT. BOTTOM               
LINE IS DEFORMATION AXIS AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF SYSTEM...SHOULD             
PUT NWRN PTN OF CWA IN GREATEST THREAT. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES NOT AS              
IMPRESSIVE THIS RUN...ON THE ORDER OF 3 G/KG. THUS APPEARS WITH                 
TEMPERATURES WHERE THEY ARE...AND SOME MELTING TO OCCUR...BEST BET              
IS TO REPLACE WSW WITH AN ADVISORY FOR TWO TO FOUR INCHES. OF                   
COURSE...THESE AMOUNTS HIGHLY DEBATABLE DUE TO MELTING. RAPID END TO            
PCPN IN THE MRNG WITH CLEARING NOT FAR BEHIND. THUS WILL ONLY CARRY             
HIGHLIGHTS OVRNGT.                                                              
.TOP...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WIND AND SNOW NWRN AND PARTS OF              
NERN KS. ALG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COUNCIL GROVE TO HOLTON TO            
HIAWATHA.                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDDC 042114  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
453 AM MST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
ATTM THE LARGE AREA OF RASN WAS DIMINISHING AS A 5H/VORT MAX DRIFTS             
NE AWAY FROM THE FA BUT A WEAK ELONGATED VORT MAX REMAINS ACRS THE              
CWA THRU MORNING. GROUND TMPS ACRS MOST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA HAVE              
BEEN ABOVE FREEZING AND THE SN THAT HAS BEEN FALLING WAS ACCUMULATING           
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.                                                      
ON RADAR AND SATL ANOTHER AREA OF SN DEVELOPED OVR THE TEXAS                    
PANHANDLE AND MOVED NORTH INTO THE FA. THIS AREA OF PCPN WAS ROTATING           
AROUND AN INTENSE MID LVL LOW THAT AND WAS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME             
OF THIS MOISTR WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE                 
ELONGATED TROUGH THAT WAS OVR THE CWA. THE LATEST RUC CONTINUED WITH            
THE LOW/MID LVL MOISTR ACRS REGION AND THE -SN SHUD PERSIST THROUGH             
THE MORNING HOURS.                                                              
AFTER ANALYZING THE MODELS THE ETA APPEARED TO FORECAST THE UPR LVL             
TMPS AND HGHTS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE AVN AND THE WETTER NGM. THE             
INTENSE MID LVL LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ENE INTO                  
OKLAHOMA BY SATURDAY EVENING. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW THE WINDY               
CATEGORY MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BEING FURTHER                
SOUTH THAN THE MODELS FORECAST. BUT DURING SATURDAY THE WINDS SHUD              
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND BECOME WINDY AS THE LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE              
CWA AND WILL MORE THAN LIKELY ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY TODAY.                      
AS THE -SN PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY SOME ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY.               
SOME BLOWING OF SNOW IS ALSO PROBABLE WHERE SNOW BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE           
AND MAY GO WITH A SNOW ADVISORY TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A WRAY                    
COLORADO/GLD/GOVE LINE. WITH THE CLOUD COVER TMPS SHUD BE SLOW TO               
RECOVER AND REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 30S ACRS THE REGION.                        
DRIER MID LVL AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE NORTH                 
LATE SATURDAY. LOW LVL MOISTR WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE            
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACRS THE EXTREME             
S AND E CWA. IN ADDITION PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHUD CONT TO REMAIN                 
TIGHT ACRS THE C/E FA AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHUD PERSIST.                       
5H/HGHTS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY AND AFTN TMPS SHUD BEGIN TO               
REBOUND. ALSO SFC WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE STRONG MID LVL LOW                 
MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                        
THE EXTENDED HAS A WEAK RIDGE MOVING ACRS THE TRI-STATE AREA                    
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. ANOTHER                      
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND BRING OUR NEXT               
CHANCES OF PCPN.                                                                
.GLD...SN/BLSN ADVISORY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WRAY                      
COLORADO/GLD/GOVE TODAY. ALSO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE CWA TODAY.                                                     
02                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   ks                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
325 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
WATER VAPOR LOOPS OVERLAYED WITH RUC 250 MB WIND SPEED SHOW THE                 
UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ENE AS THE CORE OF 90 KNOT AND GREATER WINDS               
ARE NOW ONLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STRONG DYNAMICS AND                
ASSOCIATED UVV ALONG WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE                
AIDING THE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SQUALL LINE            
OVER NE TX. A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SE GULF TO SE LA IS BECOMING               
PINCHED OFF AT THE MOMENT AS THE MONSTER HIGH PRES TO OUR EAST                  
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS INFLUENCE KNOWN...HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS                 
PERSIST BETWEEN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND KMCB.                                    
WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE TRICKY WITH SOME LAND STATIONS UNDER 10 MPH               
WHILE A FEW REPORT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE SAME IS TRUE             
IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME NEAR SHORE CMAN/BUOY STATIONS DOWN              
AROUND 15 KNOTS WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS HOWL AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.                 
VARYING CYCLES OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE LARGE TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD            
COVER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN STATIONS IS LIKELY CAUSING THIS                       
VARIABILITY OF WIND SPEED. ANALYZED PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTS AN               
AVERAGE WIND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF REPORTED VALUES.                        
THE MODELS ARE WELL INITIALIZED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN A              
BIT TOWARDS THE ETA SINCE IT HAS HAD THE BEST PERFORMANCE AS OF                 
LATE. UPPER LOW OVER NW TX WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES ENE TO THE              
LOWER OH VALLEY MON MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH BECOMING MORE                
POSITIVELY TILTED. COLD FRONT SHOULD ENTER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SW MS            
AND E CENTRAL LA AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY...CONTINUE EAST TO HANCOCK                  
COUNTY MS-GRAND ISLE LINE AROUND NOON...AND EAST OF JACKSON COUNTY              
MS AND THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER BY 3 OR 4 PM SUNDAY.                           
A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS NEEDED. THUNDERSTORMS                
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE IN OUR WARNING AREA UNLESS THINGS GET GOING IN             
S CENTRAL LA TONIGHT. WILL PRETTY MUCH END MENTION OF RAIN WITHIN AN            
HOUR OR SO OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY DECREASE CLOUDS             
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY OVER THE NW HALF OF AREA WITH                    
REMAINDER OF AREA BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND               
CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.            
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL INVADE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND WILL STAY CLOSE            
TO FWC NUMBERS IN THOSE PERIODS. EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH A             
WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK ON              
THURSDAY.                                                                       
MCB 60/63/39/55 7600    BTR 61/64/41/55 7500                                    
MSY 63/68/45/56 5610    BIX 66/70/46/57 3710                                    
.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY KPQL-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER.                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
22                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 042109  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
937 PM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
UPSTREAM RADARS SW OF THE CWA SHOW A GROWING AREA OF RAIN MAKING                
STEADY PROGRESS NE TOWARD NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI. SEVERAL TYPES OF            
LIFT ARE DRIVING THIS AREA OF PRECIP. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS                
NOTED ON THE 295K SFC...AS WELL AS INCREASING 850-700 MB                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALSO...LATEST RUC IS            
SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF A 500 MB JET MAX BETWEEN 02Z            
AND 10Z...INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPECIFICALLY IN THE RRQ OVER              
NRN AND CENTRAL LOWER MI SW INTO THE SRN HALF OF LAKE MI TO THE CHI             
AREA. RUC CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING TOTAL SATURATION OVERNIGHT AS              
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES NE INTO THE REGION. LATEST RUC HAS ALSO                  
SLOWED THE FRONT BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 HOURS...WHICH WILL NOT ONLY KEEP               
PRECIP IN OUR CWA LONGER...BUT WILL ALSO SLOW TIMING OF CAA BEHIND              
THE FRONT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT                
THUS FAR...WHICH HAS TENDED TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED.                    
WILL UPDATE NRN LOWER MI ZONES TO GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS                      
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SCT SHRA FOR ERN UPR MI AS THAT AREA WILL             
BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE. HAVE ALSO DECIDED             
TO KEEP PRECIP ALL LIQUID OVERNIGHT BASED ON PROJECTED TIMING OF THE            
FRONT AND CAA BEHIND IT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO ADJUST THE SECOND PERIOD             
FORECAST TO MENTION RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING FOR                
MOST OF THE CWA.                                                                
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 050217  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS                                           
836 PM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
...UPDATE FORECAST TO OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG ALL CWA...              
LATEST COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR COMPOSITE INFO SHOWS AREA             
OF RAIN ASSOC WITH JET COUPLING/DPVA WITH STRONG EXITING                        
SHTWV/OPENING UPPER LOW/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ETC... IS SPREADING INTO           
MOST OF CWA AT 01Z.  COMBINATION OF THICKNESS COOLING AND GOOD UPPER            
DYNAMICS WILL ASSURE A LONG PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN                
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. MOST AREAS HAVE 1 TO 3 MILES OF VIS IN                 
FOG... BUT WITH RAIN MOVING IN FEEL FOG WILL NOT GET DENSE ENOUGH               
FOR A FOG ADVISORY.                                                             
LATEST SURFACE DATA INDICATES RUC TRACK BETTER THAN 12Z MODEL RUNS              
AND THAT WOULD TAKE STORM TRACK FARTHER N THAN SUGGESTED BY 12Z                 
MODELS.  THIS LIKELY WILL IMPACT HOW LONG IT RAINS AND WHEN AND IF              
IT TURNS TO SNOW... BUT THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED BY MID NIGHT                      
FORECASTER.                                                                     
SINCE CURRENT ZONE WORDING IS PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING... WILL                
FORECAST PERIODS OF RAIN WITH AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL OF CWA.  OVER NRN            
PART OF CWA... FCST IS RAIN LIKELY BUT WILL PUT SAME THERE TOO SINCE            
RADAR RETURN CONTINUITY SHOWS RAIN ALREADY DEVELOPING THERE AND WITH            
A FARTHER N TRACK...  IT WILL RAIN THERE TOO.                                   
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 050047  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 PM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                      
WV IMAGERY THIS MORN SHOWS SHORTWAVE CROSSING LAKE WINNIPEG AND DEEP            
TROF OVER SW CONUS...RESULTING IN CONTINUED MOIST SW FLOW INTO THE              
UP. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SHALLOW WITH 12Z KINL SOUNDING               
SHOWING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 800MB. KGRB SOUNDING SIMILAR                
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 750MB AND SATURATED AIR BELOW. CANADIAN            
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH               
EASTERN MN. WINDS BEHIND THIS LINE HAVE BEEN GUSTING >20KTS UNDER               
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRAD. WINDS OVER OUR REGION CONTINUE TO BE QUITE               
LIGHT UNDER MINIMAL PRESSURE GRAD WITH WIDESPREAD FOG AND CIGS BLO              
010. DEW POINTS LOWER BEHIND FRONT (<25F) COMPARED WITH CURRENT                 
VALUES OF 35-40F OVER FA.                                                       
RUC INITIALIZES SFC PRESSURE FIELD OK...BUT UNDERDOING WINDS BEHIND             
FRONT...COMPARED WITH 14Z METARS IN N DAK AND MN. THIS SHOULD NOT BE            
A PROBLEM FOR THE AFTERNOON...SINCE STRONGEST WINDS LAGGING BEHIND              
THE FRONT. RUC GENERATES SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN WESTERN COUNTIES AS               
700-300MB CONV INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT BASED ON LIMITED              
SHALLOW MOISTURE... UPSTREAM METARS AND WEAK 88D RETURNS... WILL                
KEEP OUT ANY PRECIP. AREA METARS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG WITH VIS                  
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1/2 TO 3SM. SOLAR HEATING QUITE                          
LIMITED...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW OVC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL            
KEEP PATCHY FOG WORDING IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                   
TEMPS LOOK GOOD... EXPECTING LITTLE INCREASE WITH THICK CLOUDS IN               
PLACE.                                                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 041543  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1015 AM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                      
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS CWA SUFFICIENTLY TO DROP MENTION              
OF AREAS OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME LOCALES STILL             
REPORTING VISIBILITIES IN 2 TO 3 MILE RANGE WILL ACCOUNT FOR BR IN              
NOWCASTS.                                                                       
ALTHOUGH A FEW SUNNY BREAKS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE LOOP...WILL CALL THE             
REMAINDER OF THE DAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. BOTH RUC AND MESO-ETA INDICATE              
CURRENT 925 MB RH FIELDS TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM CURRENT MOSTLY                
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE TO INCREASE FURTHER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.                            
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 041047  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
514 AM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
VRY CHALLENGING FCST THIS AM FOR ALL FCST PRDS. LATE WITH AFD AS IT             
TOOK AWHILE TO PACKAGE FCST IN ICWF. AFTER MISSING WELL NEEDED RAIN             
IN MANY PLACES ON FRI IT LKS LK ALL OF CWA WILL EVENTUALLY GET WET TDY.         
RUC APPRS TO HAVE DECENT HNDL ON CONCENTRATION OF H3 DVRGNC WHICH               
SEEMED TO ASSIST ROUND OF CNVTN OVR SW MO LAST NITE AND CONTS TO                
ASSIST IN KEEPING RAINFALL TOGETHER AS LARGE BAND MVS NEWRD ACR SE              
CWA. PROFILER DATA AND IR LOOP THRU 1030 UTC SHWS NOSE OF 80 KT JET             
LIFTING NWRD THRU OK AFT ROUNDING BASE OF DEEPENING SYS WRN HI PLNS.            
BOTH RUC AND LAST NITES ETA SHW ANOTHER AREA OF H3 DVRGNC COUPLED               
WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS KEEP BULK OF QPF OVR SRN CWA BUT WITH                 
AFOREMENTIONED DVRGNC CONCENTRATION AND TREND OF COOLING TOPS ACR               
ERN KS THINK THAT ALL OF CWA ALG STATE LN GET WET THIS AM. WENT WITH            
CATEGORICAL POPS IN W AND SRN ZNS AND LEFT LIKELY ACR NE CWA. MODEL             
X-SECT DATA SUGGESTS UPRIGHT CNVTV POT TDY THRU TNGT SO LEFT CHC FOR            
THNDR ALL ZNS. CD FNT THRU ALL BUT XTRM SE CWA SO DID NOT ALLOW FOR             
MUCH TEMP RISE TDY. CRNT FCST HAD GOOD HNDL ON TEMPS TDY SO MADE LTL            
CHGS.                                                                           
STLT LOOPS SHWS DEFORMATION ZN ACTUALLY BREAKING UP AS OF 1030 UTC              
AFT DUMPING SVRL INCHES OF -SN OVR NM AND PLNS OF CO. CONCERNED THAT            
WITH LTL OR NO TROWAL SIGNATURE IN POT TEMP FIELDS PRESENT ATTM OR              
FCST BY MODELS NXT 24-36 HRS HAVE A HUNCH THAT STG DEVELOPMENT OF               
COMMA FEATURE AS SYS MVS INTO PLAINS MAY BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED. ETA             
SHWS SOME WEAK TROFING OF WRM ALF OVR ERN NE BUT NOT REAL STG CNVGNC            
OF QS COUPLED WITH IT. NEVER THE LESS ALL MODELS ADVANCE UPPER LO AND           
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZN TO NE ACR KS LTR TDY AND TNGT.                    
ALTHOUGH SLIGHT VARIATIONS WITH EACH MODELS PLACEMENT OF CNVGNC OF              
Q, QN, QS FIELDS ALL FCST TO ENOUGH LIFT OVR NE KS/NW MO LATE TNGT              
AND SUN AM COMBINED WITH CHILLY PAC AMS TRAILING STORM SYS TO                   
TURN RA TO SN AS FAR E AS NW MO SHRTLY AFT MDNT. FCST SNDG DATA SHWS            
THAT CRNT ZFP NOT TOO FAR OFF MARK SO MADE LTL CHGS IN PCPN TYPE                
WORDING AND TIME OF CHG OVR. AWIPS SPEC HUMIDITY FIELDS FOR MID                 
TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST MOD AMT OF MSTR TO BE POTENTIALLY WRUNG OUT IN              
CD QUAD OF SYS. POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SVRL INCHES OF SN ACR PROBABLY              
NW CWA BUT SINCE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE POT HVY SN EVENT OR WINTER               
STORM CRITERIA DID NOT ISSUE WATCH FOR LATE TNGT/SUN. WILL SEND OUT             
SPS HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR FIRST SNOWFALL OF SEASON AFT LONG PRD            
OF UNSEASONABLY WRM WX.                                                         
SUN LKS LIKE BLUSTERY CHILLY DAY WITH TEMPS STDY OR FALLING WILL                
CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL ZNS AND ADJUST PCPN TYPE FM W TO E. ENDED PCPN            
IN W SUN NITE BUT WILL LINGER ERN ZNS.                                          
.EAX...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
BODNER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   mo                                            

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
845 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM SE CWA HAVE YIELDED UP TO AN INCH ON GRASSY               
SURFACES.  AIR TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING DESPITE DEW POINTS              
FROM 27 TO 30 DEGREES.  RUC SHOWS ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FOR NEXT 4                 
HOURS OR SO AND RADAR RETURNS ARE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN EVER.  UPPER             
AIR ANALYSIS/SATELLITE SHOWS SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NEWD.                 
ROAD CONDITIONS IN ADVISORY AREA ARE WET ATTM.  MAY EVENTUALLY SEE A            
LITTLE SNOW STICK OR AT LEAST SEE ICING AS TEMPS DROP...BUT DOES NOT            
APPEAR TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.  THEREFORE WILL CANCEL ADVISORY AND               
MENTION POSSIBLE SLICK SPOTS AND ENDING OF PCPN.                                
IN THE NORTHWEST CWA...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS DROPPING TO                 
AROUND 10 KNOTS.  DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND FALLING.  WILL LOWER              
MIN TEMPS THERE.                                                                
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
DROZD                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 042031  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
230 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES -- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR SERN NEB AND                 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER N.                                                
SYNOPSIS -- LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG...CLOSED                 
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS IN NWRN TX...SLOWLY LIFTING NEWD.             
300MB PROFILER WINDS ACROSS CNTRL OK AND S CNTRL KS HAVE INCREASED              
MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNALING A CONTINUED NEWD             
EJECTION OF THIS LOW.  MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES AND                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF            
OF KS...WITH A SLOW NWD TREND IN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.                      
FORECAST -- AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE 12Z SHORT              
RANGE MODELS HAVE ALL COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF               
THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH A MORE SRN TRACK FAVORED (WHICH WAS CLOSE              
TO PREVIOUS ETA RUNS).  THUS...THE AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL               
OVERNIGHT APPEARS NOW TO BE LIMITED TO FAR SERN NEB.  RUC FORECAST              
SOUNDINGS FOR THE FNB AREA INDICATE SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS              
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE MEASURABLE              
PRECIPITATION CAN OCCUR.  LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE INCREASE            
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS FORECAST BY            
03Z.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORT                  
LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH 04Z...THEN A MIX FROM 04Z-08Z...AND                
THEN ALL SNOW THEREAFTER.  FARTHER N...TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ALL            
SNOW...BUT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND MINIMAL UPWARD             
FORCING SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.                                        
DEEP-LAYERED QG FORCING AND 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED              
BY 12Z SUNDAY OVER FAR SERN NEB WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES...RANGING FROM AROUND 6 DEG C/KM ACROSS SERN NEB TO                 
GREATER THAN 8 DEG C/KM OVER ECNTRL KS AND WCNTRL MO.  THIS WOULD               
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS              
FROM THE ETA...NGM AND AVN ALL ENTRAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR INTO THE            
LOW LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME INTO SERN NEB.  CURRENT                       
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A TIGHT SNOWFALL GRADIENT FROM               
THE FNB AREA SWD.  AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DECIDED THAT THE HEAVY                
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE S OF THE CWFA...BUT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL               
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES... COMBINED WITH STRONG NLY                      
WINDS...WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PAWNEE AND RICHARDSON             
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.                                              
SNOWFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING IN THE FAR SE               
WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.  WINDY CONDITIONS              
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S...BUT THE WINDS WILL                
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN THE N.  WE HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF FAN AND             
FWC TEMPERATURES ON HIGHS.  SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT             
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND WE               
HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE IN ALL AREAS.  ON MONDAY...A NRN STREAM                
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A                
SHARPENING LEE TROUGH TO THE W.  AGAIN...A BLEND OF FAN AND FWC                 
TEMPERATURES WERE USED.                                                         
IN THE EXTENDED...WE FEEL THAT THE LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE                      
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF IS MORE CORRECT THAN THE MRF SOLUTION WITH A                  
CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.                                 
.OMA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TNGT/ERLY SUN NEZ092>093                         
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 042014  ne                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
215 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
-RA/SN CONT TO THREATEN THE SRN EDGE OF GID CWA THIS AFTN AS UPR LOW            
SPINS ACRS THE TX PANHANDLE.  SFC LOW WAS CNTRD OVR ERN OK AT 18Z               
WITH DRY AIR/CLR SKIES ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE PERIMETER.                       
18Z RUC CONTS TO PROG HALF DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290/295K               
SFCS THRU 03Z UNDR DEFORMATION ZONE OVR SRN EDGE OF CWA.  WL THUS               
REPLACE WATCH WITH WINTER WX ADVISORY WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHIFT IN                 
COUNTIES.  DRY AIR ADVECTING IN AND DECREASING LIFT WL NOT SUPPORT              
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR OUR AREA.  WL KP MENTION OF A CPL                 
INCHES FOR TNGT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THAT AREA...AND WL TAPER              
TO FLURRIES BY SUNRISE.                                                         
SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF CWA ON SUN WITH DECREASING WND...SOME                   
WEAK DOWNSLOPE WL AID TMP RECOVERY.  WL FOLLOW THE MOS TREND UPWARD.            
IN LATTER PDS AND EFP...GENLY ZONAL FLOW WL KP CONDITIONS DRY                   
UNTIL NXT SYS EMERGES FM THE ROCKIES ON WED PRVDG RA/SN THREAT.  WL             
ALSO MENTION SN ON THU...ALTHOUGH CURRENT TIMING WOULD END SPPRT                
EARLY.                                                                          
.GID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEZ086...087 AND FOR KSZ007...               
017...018...019.                                                                
09                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 041925  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1000 AM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                      
CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS                   
WARMING NICELY ON WSW FLOW. SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED JUST S OF            
AREA INTO TONIGHT AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WILL STAY W AND N. NGM             
DOES SHOW AREA OF 80+ RH AT 250 MB SPREADING OVER ERN NC TODAY BUT              
DID NOT VERIFY WELL WITH THIS FEATURE AT 12Z SO DISCOUNTED.                     
THICKNESS TECHNIQUES AND MORNING RAOBS SUPPORT HIGHS THIS AFTN IN               
LOWER 70S WITH MID 60S OUTER BANKS. WILL ADJUST COASTAL PLAIN                   
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
CWF: MOST OBS FROM W AROUND 15 KTS WITH DIAMOND SHOALS AN OUTLIER               
NEAR 20. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA INDICATE WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN N            
OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND WILL ADJUST FCST TO AT LEAST SOLID 15 KTS.                  
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
JBM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 041501  nc                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
940 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN                 
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.  THEREFORE...ADDED SOME BECOMING                
CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES AS LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND UPPER               
SYSTEM MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT.                                                  
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THINK THE THUNDER THREAT IS MAINLY OVER FOR              
NOW WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE LIKELY ACROSS THE FA THROUGH TOMORROW                 
MORNING.  GIVEN LACK OF NEW MODEL DATA HAVE LOOKED AT LATEST RUC FOR            
GUIDANCE ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF SNOW.  WATER VAPOR NOW LOOKING LIKE               
UPPER LOW IS MOVING MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SNOW              
OUT OF OUR CWA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN PROXIMITY OF SNOW REPORTS IN OBS AS            
CLOSE AS ICT... HAVE ADDED THE POSSIBLITLY FOR SOME FLURRIES IN FAR             
NORTHWEST ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                                      
REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.  UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.           
HOWIESON                                                                        
FCSTID = 44                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 050339  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
200 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
AVN/ETA NEARLY IDENTICAL AND WILL BASE PACKAGE ON BLEND OF THESE.               
NICE H50 RIDGE BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF WEST COAST STORM. THE RESULT              
FOR MY AREA IS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH GOOD CLEARING AND             
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTERESTING. MOST                
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW...BUT ETA/RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS            
SHOW GOOD DRYING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. FWC/FAN/FMR ALL SUGGEST UPPER            
TEENS OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL DROP THESE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AREA WIDE             
WITH GOOD RADIATION AFTER SUNSET AND A LONG NIGHT TO COOL. RIDGE                
AXIS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY 12-15 UTC PER AVN/ETA...SO WILL GO WITH               
SOUTHERLY WINDS. SINCE AIR IS SO DRY...BELIEVE A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL              
CHANGE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND HAVE RAISED SUNDAYS HIGHS WELL            
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL              
AGAIN...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEENS EXISTS. HOWEVER            
BELIEVE THE WINDS WILL KEEP UP A WHILE IN THE EVENING...AND SO LOW              
TEMPS ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SAT NITES LOWS. CURRENT WEST COAST STORM             
MAKES BRIEF APPEARANCE AS AN OPEN WAVE ON MONDAY...BUT LIKE MOST OF             
THE RECENT WAVES...HAS WEAKENED AND DRIED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE                
ROCKY MTNS....THUS MONDAY LOOKS TO HAVE A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS                   
PRESENT...BUT ONLY MENTIONED IN NORTHERN CWA. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD            
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY...BUT NOT BY MUCH.                          
...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                              
NOGAPS AND MRF CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPLIT FLOW THRU NEXT THURSDAY.              
BOTH MODELS PROG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DIG SSE TOWARDS THE               
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE MRF PROGS THE SFC LOW TO BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN            
THE PREVIOUS RUN.  AM BEGINNING TO GET CONCERNED THAT THIS SYSTEM               
COULD BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE SW BY GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERN            
BRANCH.  HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE THE CHC OF SNOW SINCE THE MRF STILL            
PROGS AN INVERTED TROF MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA ON WED.  IN ADDITION...           
THIS SFC TROF MIGHT BE ABLE TO TAP A LITTLE GULF MOISTURE. MRF PROG             
534-540 THICKNESSES ON WED.  THE NEXT MODEL RUN SHOULD SHED MORE                
LIGHT ON THIS PROBLEM.  MEANWHILE...A WARM UP SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY             
NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF SFC LOW.  TEMPS COOL DOWN AGAIN AS THE SFC              
LOW MOVES SE ALLOWING SOME CAA INTO THE AREA.  WENT CLOSE TO ABOVE              
NORMAL FMR GUIDANCE TEMPS.                                                      
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HARDING/GUERRERO                                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 041720  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
827 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
THE LATEST RUC CONFIRMS WHAT SATELLITE TRENDS NOW SHOW...THAT                   
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ARE DOMINATE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS               
EVENING. THE UPPER LOW HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WILL              
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY OVERNIGHT. THE WRAP AROUND STRATUS ROTATING               
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SHRINK IN SIZE. REASON                   
BEING...STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...PER RUC.           
WE/LL DROP MENTION OF PCPN IN THE BIG COUNTRY. ALSO PREFER PARTLY               
CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTH HALF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH              
TO 10 TO 20 MPH BY MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. ZONE UPDATE            
ALREADY HIT THE STREETS.                                                        
.SJT...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.                                                   
17                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEWX 050228 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
250 PM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
AN INTERESTING DAY WEATHER WISE AROUND THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY                
MOST OF THE PRECIP REMAINED NORTH AND EAST OF THIS PARCHED REGION.              
FOR THE START...500 MB UPPER ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM           
OVER EASTERN NM. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS AT THIS LEVEL WERE AROUND AMA...            
BUT WE HAD A SW FLOW OF AROUND 75 KNTS...BRINGING THE MAIN LOW CENTER           
BETWEEN CVS AND HOB. THE FORECAST MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE               
FINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATED A CLASSIC COMMA SHAPE               
SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVIDENCE OF SNOW                
COVER WAS NICELY NOTED EASTERN WY...EASTERN CO...AND W/CENTRAL NM.              
19Z ANALYSIS HAS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SE OK...WITH A TROUGH                
EXTENDING TO WEST TX. IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT DURING              
THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOR OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.                   
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A WAVY/MOTTLE APPEARANCE SUGGESTING IN-              
STABILITY HAD FORMED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS PECOS REGION NORTH            
OF THE DAVIS MTNS AND BIG BEND. MSAS ANALYSIS AND RUC INITIALIZATION            
INDICATED LOW LEVEL UPPER MOTION...PARTIALLY INDUCED FROM THE UPPER             
SYSTEM EXITING AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO BE THE CAUSE.             
THIS GO AROUND...WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE            
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. WITH SURFACE            
WINDS MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NE...UPGLIDE AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL            
NOT BE AS PREVALENT THUS EXPECT CLEARING OF SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.            
A RETURN OF RATHER COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.              
FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT...WILL COOL TEMPS BELOW FREEZING (EXCEPT FOR             
TERRELL COUNTY AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY). HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL            
REBOUND SOME WITH MORE SUNSHINE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASON NORMS            
(LOCALLY 61/33).                                                                
FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST GOING. THE 72 HOUR AVN              
SHOWS A SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA TUES. THIS WAS                
AGREEING WITH THE NAVY MODEL SHOWING A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR PRECIP               
HERE. HOWEVER WITH THIS RECENT WEATHER REGIME...HAVE SEEN TOO MANY              
SYSTEMS LIKE THIS NOT PRODUCE VERY MUCH FROM THE EXTENDED. THE                  
PREVIOUS MRF RUN WAS KEEPING IT DRY TOO...WITH MACHINE NUMBERS IN               
THE 10-15 POPS RANGE THURS.                                                     
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO GUID IN FIRST GUESS BELOW. WILL GO SLOWER THAN             
MACHINE NUMBERS FOR WARM-UP ON MONDAY. COMMENTS R WELCOMED.                     
MAF  25/55/22/62    -000                                                        
LSA  23/52/21/59    -000                                                        
E41  28/54/25/63    -000                                                        
6R6  31/57/27/63    -000                                                        
MRF  18/50/16/59    0000                                                        
CNM  22/53/22/62    -000                                                        
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 042046  tx                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
955 AM CST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
SHOWERS GOING FULL TILT OVER THE WESTERN CWA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED                
THUNDERSTORMS. MORNING SOUNDING PAINTED A GRIM WEATHER SCENARIO FOR             
TODAY...CRP-HELICITY >150/EHI >3.0/MODIFIED CAPE >1500 WITH A CAP OF            
1.5C. USING THE CRP SOUNDING ANY OF THE STORMS THAT SHOW AN EASTWARD            
MOVEMENT AND SLOWING WOULD BE GOBBLING UP THE INFLOW AND WILL                   
WARRANT VERY CLOSE ATTENTION. LCH SOUNDING HAD LESS CAP AND WEAKER              
WIND FIELD. MODELS NOT DOING A GREAT JOB WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH             
THAT HAD GOTTEN WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 13Z. PREFRONTAL TROUGH               
THROUGH ACT/AUS/COT FRONT STILL NORTH OF JCT/DFW LINE AT 15Z.                   
EXPECT THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EARLY EVENING. WE ARE FORECAST TO BE LONG ON CAPE BUT SHORTER ON            
WIND SHEAR...THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT VWP.  GREATER LAPSE               
RATES AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE IN N TX AND PERHAPS IN THE NORTHERN                
ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ACTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT               
QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 2 OR 3 PM ... RUC DEPICTS SUBTROPICAL              
JET COMING INTO PLAY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.  ZONES CURRENTLY              
CARRYING SVR/+RA IN WORDING AND DO NOT FORESEE ANY SIGNIFICANT                  
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO LOWER TEMPS IN NW/N ZONES WHERE ONGOING                   
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE RISE. WINDS OVER THE            
WATER AND BIG ROLLING SWELLS WARRANT CONTINUED SCA...BUT THE SURFERS            
MAY BE IGNORING THAT.                                                           
45/41/JACK                                                                      
.HGX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS.                                         
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL TB 075/041 057/032 062 42600                                                
IAH TB 078/043 059/034 062 42740                                                
GLS TB 075/052 059/043 062 42740                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 041542  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
951 AM EST SAT DEC 4 1999                                                       
WK STORM SYS TO SCOOT BY TO THE NORTH ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA TDY...               
WITH WK RIDGING (ALOFT AND AT SFC) MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY                
TONIGHT ACRS FA. FIRST H5 S/W...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED AREA OF                
RA...MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN VT THIS MORNING. SECOND...AND WEAKER...             
S/W TO MOVE ACRS FA THIS AFT FROM EASTERN ONT.                                  
KTYX 88D STILL OUT AND NO BUFCAN...BUT IR SAT PIX SHWS WARMING TOPS             
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT BATCH OF POTENTIAL PCPN...TO THE NORTH OF LK               
ONT...ATTM. RUC HAS LT PCPN PERSISTING INTO THIS AFT. WITH PLENTY OF            
MOISTURE (AT H85 AND BLW) TO WORK WITH THIS AFT...FEEL BEST CHC FOR             
ANY MEASURABLE RA WILL BE IN THE MTNS WITH ANY OROGRAPHY. WILL ONLY             
ADD POPS TO THIS AFT/S FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS AND JUST MENTION SCT            
SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.                                                 
WK H85 WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF TDY/S WK CANADIAN LO PRES SYS WITH                  
STRONGER WAA...AFT 06Z TONIGHT...AHEAD OF NEXT SYS MOVING ACRS GREAT            
LKS REGION.                                                                     
RUC/14Z LAMP SHOWING TDYS MAXS IN THE L-M40S WITH LT WNDS ACRS FA.              
WILL PROLLY ADD PATCHY FG TO EASTERN VT ZONES.                                  
WORKZONES AVBL IN A MIN OR TWO.                                                 
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE></PRE></TT>   vt                                            

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
250 AM CST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED AT 06Z JUST NORTH OF TULSA PER SATELLITE               
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  DECENT DEFORMATION ZONE CAUSED                
BY VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER LOW EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD FROM KSTJ TO            
AROUND KICT. PRECIP IS SNOW WEST OF KMHK WITH MAINLY RAIN EAST AT 06Z           
ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE. DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO SW MO WITH WARM                 
CONVEYOR BELT STILL STREAMING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 45-50 MPH WITH BACK            
EDGE ALONG A KLIT TO KCOU TO KCID LINE. THIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE               
HEAVIER PRECIP IS FOCUSED WHICH IS SLIDING EAST AT 15 MPH. STRONG               
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND SYSTEM SUPPORT RAPID CLEARING AFTER UPPER LOW               
MOVES WITH SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE MOVING IN FROM ROCKIES. BREEZY               
NORTH WINDS OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING GOOD CAA JUST BEHIND UPPER             
LOW. LATEST 88D MOSAIC AT 08Z SHOWS SOME INTERACTION OF WARM                    
CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS SE IOWA AND NE MO.                   
...TIMING END OF PRECIP WITH SNOW CHANGEOVER PRIMARY NEAR TERM                  
CONCERN...                                                                      
NGM/ETA MODELS INITIALIZED BEST WITH UPPER LOW AND DEFORMATION ZONE             
WITH ALL THREE MODELS HANDLING OTHER LARGER SCALE FEATURES WELL.                
VERIFICATION DEFINITELY SHOWS NGM/ETA DOING MUCH BETTER THAN AVN                
WITH DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE OF THIS FEATURE BY BOTH            
MODELS WHILE AVN TOO BROAD WITH WETNESS.  LATEST 06Z RUC ALSO                   
SUPPORTS ETA/NGM SOLUTION.  SHORT TERM FORECAST TOOLS ALSO SUGGEST              
DEFORMATION ZONE AFFECTING SOUTHERN 1/3 CWA AS IT MOVES EAST.                   
CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH ANY POSSIBLE                
ACCUMULATIONS.  LOCAL THRESHOLDS PER ETA SUPPORT LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS           
WITH MAYBE AN INCH IN FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES OF IOWA AND FAR NE                    
MISSOURI.  HOWEVER WITH THIS KIND OF VIGOROUS FEATURE AND PHASING OF            
COLD AIR UNCERTAINTY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR EARLIER CHANGEOVER WHICH            
WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR UP TO AND BEYOND ZONE ISSUANCE.                    
NEAR TERM...THIS MEANS RAIN ENDING FAR NW ZONES BY DAYBREAK WITH                
CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS AND GOOD CAA FOR NEAR STEADY                 
TEMPS.  WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA THIS AM           
WITH RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES BEFORE                  
CLEARING THIS PM EXTENDING FROM FREEPORT TO IOWA CITY.  NEXT RIBBON             
OF COUNTIES WILL GO WITH LIKELY AM WORDING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF               
SNOW POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION THEN PM CLEARING RUNNING FROM            
STERLING TO QUAD CITIES TO FAIRFIELD.  THEN...MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ZONES            
ALONG SHEARING DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD BE THE SOUTHERN ROW OF IOWA              
COUNTIES AND TWO MISSOURI COUNTIES.  HERE WILL GO CATEGORICAL WITH              
OCCASIONAL WORDING AND ACCUMULATIONS OF INCH OR LESS AGAIN BASED ON             
LOCAL STUDIES OF TEMPS AND DECAYING FORCING WITH SYSTEM.  WILL LIMIT            
MENTION OF SNOW FOR NW ILLINOIS ZONES DUE TO DELAYED COOLING OF TEMPS           
FOR CHANGEOVER.  FOR PM PORTION WILL HIT BREEZY AND TURNING COLDER              
WORDING AS CLEARING KICKS IN WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCE POPS FAR SE             
ZONES OF RAIN/SNOW.  TEMPS WILL FOLLOW JUST ABOVE ETA 2M TEMPS WHICH            
MEANS STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TODAY WORDING.                             
QUIET AFTER FIRST PERIOD WITH FOLLOWING OF FWC/FAN BLEND WHICH ARE              
CLOSE BEYOND FIRST PERIOD.                                                      
MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP TODAY AND GROUPINGS.                                    
EXTENDED PERIOD...LATEST MRF/UKMET/ECMWF BLEND SHOWS ANOTHER STORM              
SYSTEM BY THURSDAY WITH SNOW WEST AND RAIN EAST.  THIS COVERED IN               
CURRENT PACKAGE WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  MAINLY DRY TUE/WED                
AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.                                                     
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE             
CONTAINED WITHIN QUAD CITIES ZONE FORECAST.                                     
DBQ EA 035/020 035/025 041 16200                                                
CID BA 035/021 037/026 042 16200                                                
MLI OA 037/025 038/028 045 16700                                                
BRL OA 039/026 040/030 047 169-0                                                
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
NICHOLS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 050835  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
315 AM CST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
MAIN CONCERN IS SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  CHANGEOVER AND RESULTING   
SNOW AMOUNTS ARE BIG QUESTION.                                                  
DEFORMATION ZONE SETUP WITH LIFT NEWRD WHILE MOVEMNT OF ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVG      
EWRD.  BIG HELP IS TREND OF LTST RUC WHICH APPEARS TO HANDLE DEF ZN WELL.       
FOLLOWING RUC WULD GIVE BEST SNOW FM SWRN IA TWD KOTM.  FIGHT WILL BE WITH      
DRIER AIR INTO ST AKG WITH PULLING EWRD COMPNT.  GOING FCST FM LAST NGT LOOKS   
GD HWVR MAY EXTEND PCPN AS UPPER LO SLO TO PULL OFF.  AFTER FIRST PD REST OF    
FCST BACK TO "NORMAL" WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SLO WARMUP AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH QUICK BREAK TO ZONAL FLO.  HWVR BY     
MID WEEK LTST MRF SHOWS TROF DIGGING AS IT COMES OFF THE COAST WITH FAIRLY      
INTENSE SERIES OF S/W MOVING THRU THE SW AND OVR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE         
COUNTRY.  LWRG HTS SUGGEST SHARPLY IMPROVE CHC FOR SNW LT WEEK AND INTO ERY     
NXT WEEK.                                                                       
GUID TEMPS NOT BAD AND IN LINE WITH SFC TRAJS FCST AS SOURCE RGN IN THE DAKS.   
WITH BUILDING RIDGE WARMUP WL BE SLO WITH AT LEAST ONE COLD NGT AHD.            
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FORSTER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 050401 AMD  ia                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
332 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHEN THE ONSET OF               
THE RAIN WILL BE AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WILL END UP BEING.                     
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE VORT LOBE SPINNING OVER SE KS WITH            
A GRADUAL MOVEMENT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO                 
SHIFT TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND THEN EAST TO THE             
APPALACHIANS BY TOMORROW EVENING. ETA/AVN ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE              
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE WAY TO GO AFTER LOOKING BACK             
AT THE PREVIOUS RUN.                                                            
WE ARE BIT CONCERNED ON WHEN THIS RAIN WILL BEGIN ATTM SINCE THE                
PRECIP IS TENDING TO HOLD BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM WHAT THE                  
ETA/NGM IS PROJECTING DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD       
HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO SO WE WILL DELAY THE RAIN UNTIL THE                     
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME FOR THE LEX AND COLUMBIA GROUPS. COULD ALSO SEE            
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE             
BOUNDARY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING.  THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD            
ALSO PROVIDE FAIRLY DESCENT LAPSE RATES. FWC TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE            
ON TARGET THIS MORNING AFTER A WARM START AND TEMPERATURES COOLING              
OFF A LITTLE WHEN THE RAIN BEGINS.                                              
TONIGHT THE MODELS PROJECT THE STEADIER RAINS TO MOVE TO EASTERN KY             
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL              
BE AWAITING THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GOOD                
700MB FRONTAGENISIS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP THE                 
CHANCES OF RAIN UP OVER MOST OF THE AREA DESPITE A MID LEVEL DRY                
SLOT MOVING INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL                 
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWFA AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. AS             
FOR THE SNOW POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL OCCUR SINCE             
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYING ABOVE 1500 FT               
AND THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT HEADS EAST.  IT APPEARS               
MOST OF THE LIFT EXITS THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONTINUED            
GOOD CAA. ALL THREE MODELS AGREE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL                 
CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY OVER CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN IN WHICH WE               
WILL MENTION IN THE ZONES. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TEMPERATURES            
MUCH DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.                       
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
COX                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 050636  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
240 AM CST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
FRONT CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS S LA THIS MORNING WITH A                
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS FROM KPTN TO KBTR TO W OF KMCB AT 0840Z.                 
LIGHTNING DATA NOT INDICATING ANY STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT                
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATER AS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT 80 KT                 
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX NEARS SE LA COAST AROUND DAYBREAK.                          
TIMING OF RAIN IS GOING TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. AT             
08Z RAIN SHOWERS NEAR KBTR EXTENDING INTO SW MS WITH THE LINE MOVING            
E. KLFT AT 06Z SHOWED 71 TEMP AND 66 DEWPOINT WHICH DROPPED TO 58               
TEMP AND 55 DEWPOINT ONCE SHOWERS MOVED IN. THIS RAIN HAMPERED THE              
WARMUP YESTERDAY ACROSS E PORTIONS OF SE LA WHERE SHOWERS LINGERED              
THROUGH THE MORNING. LOOKING AT NEW ORLEANS AREA OBS FROM SATURDAY              
THESE LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO WARM 10-12 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS.              
WITH THIS IN MIND WILL GO WITH MID 60S W OF A KMCB-KBTR-KHUM LINE               
AND AROUND 70 E OF THIS LINE. THIS FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE                  
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY THROUGH THE              
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIODS AS THE PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK.                
LATEST TRENDS ON LIX WSR-88D SHOW DBZS INCREASING IN INTENSITY FROM             
08 TO 0830Z WHICH IS SEEMING TO PHASE WITH THE NEARING OF THE                   
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX. LOOKING AT ETA CAPE AND CAP/CIN NUMBERS FOR 12Z            
AND 18Z TODAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED BUT STRONGER CAPES REMAIN              
OFFSHORE. A LOOK AT 5/00Z LIX SOUNDING DOES NOT YIELD MUCH WITH RAIN            
OCCURRING AT RELEASE TIME. RUC MODEL SURFACE LI FIELD SHOWS NEGATIVE LI         
FIELD RESTRICTED TO COAST. SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE STRONGER STORMS                 
DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK IN WESTERN COASTAL PARISHES OF CWA AND               
SPREADING E WITH ENHANCEMENT OF LIFT FROM JET MAX.                              
WINDS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A FACTOR TODAY AS IN THE PAST TWO DAYS BUT            
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS SECONDARY 850 MB TROUGH               
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. PRELIM NUMBERS FOLLOW.                                 
MCB 64/38/56/32 7000    BTR 63/40/57/33 6000    MSY 69/44/58/40 7100            
BIX 69/46/57/38 7100                                                            
.NEW...NONE.                                                                    
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
13                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 050817  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
328 AM CST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
WV LOOP AND 88-D RETURNS AS OF 0830 UTC SHW DEFORMATION ZN XTNDG ALG            
AND TO W OF I-35 CORRIDOR FM ICT TO MCI. SNOWFALL AMTS IN                       
NEIGHBORHOOD OF A HALF A FOOT REPORTED IN ICT AREA BUT DECREASED                
FTHR TO N IN DEFORMATION ZN. HOWEVER DURING LAST TWO HRS UPRIGHT                
CNVTN HAS DEVELOPED BET TOP AND MCI. RUC CONTS TO SHW MOD TO STG H3             
DVRGNC ACR NRN END OF AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZN AS LATEST 90 KT             
JET MAX LIFTS NWRD ARND E SIDE OF CLOSED UPR LO. THINK THAT CNVTV               
THREAT WILL PERSIST OVR NW CWA UNTIL THRU 1200 UTC THAN END RATHER              
QUICKLY AS CONCENTRATION OF H3 DVRGNC DISSIPATES AND POT VORTICITY              
GRADIENT MOVE TO N. BASED ON CRNT AND MODEL FCST SPEC HUMIDITY                  
VALUES AS WELL AS REPORTS UPSTREAM INVOF TOP THINK THAT ISOLD 2-4               
INCHES A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY ALG AND W IF I-35 FM MKC TO BETHANY.            
UPWRD MOTION APPRS TO HAVE COOLED THE ATM ENOUGH OVR NW CWA THAT                
PCPN SHLD HOLD AS SNOW THRU THE AM                                              
BIG QUESTION ATTM IS WHETHER OF NOT TO ISSUE SNOW ADVSY CONSIDERING             
CRNT ISOLD NATURE OF CNVTN. WILL EITHER ISUE SNOW ADVSY FOR NARROW              
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST PCPN AS INDICATED BY 88-D OR ISSUE BROAD ZN FOR            
A FEW INCHES AND TREAT ISOLD COUNITIES WITH ADVSY IF NEED DVLPS.                
WILL DECIDE AT PRESS TIME.                                                      
JUST TO S OF A KC METRO TO MARSHALL TO MACON LN...WV LOOP INDICATES             
THAT STRATOSPHERIC AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED IN WITH UPR TROPOSPHERIC               
POT VORTICITY MAX. WILL GO WITH LGT RA TDY PSBLY MIXING WITH -SN BUT            
NOT MENTION ANY ACCUMULATION. WILL INTRODUCE ENDING TIME FOR LTR                
THIS PM IN ALL WRN ZNS.                                                         
FOR NE QUAD OF CWA THINKING IS THAT FORCING MECHANISMS WILL WEAKEN              
ENOUGH THAT SNOWFALL AMNTS NOT A BIG CONCERN. SINCE STG LIFT IS                 
NECESSARY TO CHG PCPN TO SNOW AND KEEP IN FRZN STATE WILL POST MIXED            
PCPN THRU TDY WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION. WILL INSERT LO POP             
FOR -SHSN THIS EVNG IN NE CWA DUE TO MODEL FCST OF DECENT MID/UPR               
LVL FROTOGENTIC FORCING OVR ERN IA IN RIGHT ENTR RGN OF JET IN NRN              
BRANCH.                                                                         
FAN/FWC SEEM TO HAVE DECENT HNDL ON TEMPS SO WILL NOT STRAY FAR FM.             
ONCE AGN DID NOT HAVE TIME TO CLOSELY EXAMINE XTND FCST THIS AM SO              
LEFT UNCHANGED.                                                                 
.EAX...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
BODNER                                                                          
 -                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLSX 050928  mo                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
955 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWED THE STRATO-CU STILL ADVECTING OVER THE            
FORECAST AREA (FA) BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE                    
WRINKLE IS THAT RADAR SHOW THAT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS HAVE POPPED               
UP...BUT THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED. AT 12Z MSAS SHOWED WEAK SURFACE PVA            
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST               
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS. HOWEVER THE RUC AND MESO ETA              
SHIFT THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON                 
WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE ACTIVITY ONSHORE NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO                    
WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE ZONES BUT KEEP THEIR                  
MENTION IN THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE                
HIGHER THAN FORECAST SO WILL BUMP THE MAX TEMPERATURES A TAD FOR                
SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE                
LOOKS OK.                                                                       
.JAX...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 051515  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1010 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                      
EXTENSIVE DECK OF CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE                 
INVERSION AT 750 MB. FLOW ABOVE INVERSION GRADUALLY BECOMING                    
S/SW...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY               
COMPONENT. ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR ACROSS CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON...SATELLITE TREND FAVORS CONTINUATION OF CONSIDERABLE                 
CLOUD COVER DESCRIPTOR. CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RAPID RISE OF                    
TEMPS...BUT BELIEVE FORECAST MAXS WILL BE REACHED BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
WILL MONITOR TEMPS FOR EARLY AFTERNOON ZONE UPDATE IF RISE DOES NOT             
MATERIALIZE. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OCCURRING OVER SE ZONES                
HAVE BEEN WEAKENING LAST FEW HOURS...THEREFORE CURRENT POP FORECAST             
OK.                                                                             
MARINE...BROAD RIDGE AXIS HAS REACHED CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL                   
WATERS...RESULTING IN A WEAKENING OF SURFACE WINDS. LATEST RUC                  
DEPICTS SITUATION WELL...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTHERN MARINE ZONE             
THROUGH AFTERNOON AND E/SE GRADIENT STILL PREVALENT SOUTH OF                    
SEBASTIAN. WILL DROP WINDS WITH UPDATE...ESPECIALLY N OF COCOA                  
BEACH. SEAS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WIND JUSTIFIES DUE TO SMALL              
SWELL COMPONENT.                                                                
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
WIMMER/SPRATT                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 051458  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
945 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
COLD FRONT (ALONG EAST LA - EAST MS) MOVING EAST AT 15 KT AND IS ON             
PACE TO REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING...IN               
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA/AVN. (NGM LOOKS A LITTLE SLOW). LATEST RUC              
DID A GOOD JOB AT FORECASTING THE LIGHT RAIN TO OUR WEST. 'TIS                  
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT              
ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE RUC FORECASTS THIS RAIN TO REMAIN LIGHT               
AND NOT MAKE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THEREFORE...CURRENT ZONES LOOK             
GOOD AND WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES.                                       
CWF: WINDS ARE STILL HOWLING AROUND 20 KT AT THE BUOYS...WITH SEAS              
UP TO 7 FEET. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE THIS                     
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS FORECASTED BY             
THE ETA (WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST WIND FORECAST SO FAR)...AND IS ALSO             
SUPPORTED BY BUOY DATA TO THE WEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT ADVISORY                  
CRITERIA AS IS.                                                                 
.TLH...SCA TODAY APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN.                                        
FOURNIER                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMFL 051439  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                      
LK EFFECT CLOUDS AND WIND ARE MAIN UPDATE CONCERNS                              
15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1006 MB LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF GEORGIAN BAY               
WITH COLD FRNT DRAPED BACK INTO ERN TX. IR SAT...RADAR MOSAIC...AND             
SFC OBS ALL POINT TO RAINY SUNDAY ALG AND AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...WITH             
-SN OBSERVED BEHIND FRNT IN IA...WRN MO...AND ERN KS. UPR MI IS                 
BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A 1025 MB SFC HIGH NEAR KFAR AND              
AS A RESULT OF FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPERIENCING SOME              
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. GUSTIEST WINDS ARE FOUND ALONG LK SUPERIOR            
WHERE P59...CMX...AND ANJ HAVE REPORTED WINDS AOA 20 KT.                        
PER RUC AND MESOETA SFC TO BLYR WINDSPEEDS AND SFC ANALYSIS...EXPECT            
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAJORITY OF            
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING. IN ADDITION TO NW WINDS...THERMAL TROF             
AT H8 AS DEPICTED BY ETA...NGM...AND AVN (ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS A COLD             
BIAS BY 2-4 DEG C PER MORNING SOUNDINGS AT INL AND GRB) THROUGH THE             
DAY AND STEADY TEMPERATURES PER FLP GUIDANCE FOR ENTIRE U.P...WILL              
KEEP TEMPS STEADY AROUND CURRENT READINGS.                                      
DESPITE LATEST IR SAT SHOWING CLOUDS OVR NRN LK SUPERIOR BREAKING UP            
A BIT...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL ZONES.                   
THINKING IS THAT H8 TEMPS NEAR MINUS 10 DEG C (PRODUCING DLT T/S                
AROUND 14-15 ACROSS THE LK) WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN LK CLOUDS FOUND OVR            
ENTIRE UPR MI ATTM. ALSO DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FLURRIES AND LGT              
SN SHOWERS POSSIBILITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF AFTN. 88D             
SHOWING LGT RETURNS ATTM AND THAT SHOULD STAY THE CASE SINCE                    
INVERSION HTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3K FT THROUGHOUT DAY OVR NRN FA PER            
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 051603  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1029 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                      
SKC OVR CAE CWA ATTM. CLDS ALG THE CST AND INTO SE GA...WITH WDLY               
SCT SHRA NR CST. 12Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATES MOISTURE 900-750 MB WITH            
WIND DIR SW AT THAT LEVEL. SATL TRENDS INDICATE NE MVMT OF                      
CLDS...WITH APPEARANCE THAT CSRA WILL SEE LESS CLDNS THIS AFTN THAN             
REMAINDER CWA. LTST RUC SUPPORTS MOISTURE STREAMING NE...AND                    
CONFINES PCPN TO NR THE CST. SO...WILL WORD LESS CLDS CSRA...AND                
REMOVE POP FOR THEM. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS CSRA DUE TO MORE SUN.            
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 051502  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1045 AM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                      
WAVE OF LOW PRESS TO MOVE NE ALONG FRONT ACRS ONT AND INTO QUE TDY.             
FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LKS TDY DUE TO UPR             
LVL FLOW BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO IT. THIS FRONT FORECAST TO START TO           
DROP DOWN ACRS THE FA OVRNITE TONITE.                                           
12Z RUC INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE TDY WITH HIGHS IN THE              
M40S-M50S. NO FRONTAL PCPN INDICATED THRU 00Z THOUGH. 11Z LAMP DATA             
SHOWS FIRST MEASURABLE PCPN INTO THE ST LAW VLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z             
TONITE. START TIME FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE AROUND 00Z IN ST LAW                  
VLY...AROUND 06Z CHAMP VLY...IN BETWEEN IN THE ADIRONDACKS...AND                
AFTER 06Z ELSEWHERE. MODELS INDICATE THAT UPR LVL DYNAMIX WILL NOT              
COME INTO PLAY ACRS THE FA UNTIL AFT 06Z TONITE.                                
ATTM...SCT LT PCPN INDICATED ON AREA 88DS MOVING NE ACRS FA IN H85              
WAA/POSITIVE MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN. THESE SHRA TO DEPART THE               
ENTIRE FA AFT 18Z TDY. PESKY FOG STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT AND MAY LEAVE            
IN MTN ZONES AND SOUTHERN VT FOR A TIME THIS AFT.                               
SAT PIX INDICATE BREAKS IN CLD COVER MOSTLY FILLING IN...BUT FEEL               
BEST CHC FOR ANY PERIODS OF SUN LATER THIS AFT WILL BE IN SOUTHERN              
VT.                                                                             
HAVE INDICATED ABOVE TRENDS IN LATE MORNING UPDATE OF THE WORK ZONES.           
WILL HOLD REAL ZONES UNTIL AFTER 11 AM SO THAT SHRA CAN CLEAR AS MUCH           
OF THE FA AS POSSIBLE.                                                          
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBTV 051409  vt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
234 PM CST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                       
12Z CHARTS SHOWED NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO             
PROGRESS NE THROUGH SE MO. WV VERIFIES THIS WELL WITH NICE                      
CLOSED VORT MAX NEARING ST LOUIS AS OF 19Z. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE                
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN ONTARIO. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS SRN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND AT 18Z WAS LOCATED TO                  
THE EAST OF KCMI NEAR THE IN BORDER. NICE DEFORMATION ZONE ON NORTH             
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BEING AIDED BY COUPLING OF RR QUAD OF NRN STREAM            
JET OVER NE IA INTO WI AND LF QUAD OF SRN STREAM JET OVER MID                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALL OF THIS IS HELPING TO GIVE ACCUMULATING                 
SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF CWA...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA WAS            
SPARRED THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM AS DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO FROM              
THE NW. A FEW LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL CWA HAVE SEEN UP TO 2-4 INCHES OF            
SNOW ACCUMULATION...MAINLY IN THE QUAD CITIES AREA. TIGHT PRES                  
GRADIENT HELPING TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL TODAY.                    
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN              
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH WRN KS. TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE QUITE COLD NEAR            
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND                 
TEENS. DOWN STREAM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE                        
PLAINS REGION...AS NEXT WEAKER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE                      
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. NEXT LARGER MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM EVIDENT                  
BEHIND THIS MOVING TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST...WITH STRONG 150KT JET              
AIMED TO HELP DIG SYSTEM INTO THE WEST COAST.                                   
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING END OF SNOW THIS EVENING...CLOUD             
TRENDS TONIGHT...AND TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO TIMING OF               
NEXT SYSTEM FOR LATE THIS WEEK.                                                 
12Z MODELS SEEMED TO INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL ON CLOSED LOW OVER MO...           
BUT THE RUC SEEMED TO HAVE THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH DOWN THE BEST.             
ETA SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                   
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. AVN SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BEST WITH 850 MB THERMAL           
FIELDS TO THE NW AND THIS IS REFLECTED WITH FAN SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE            
WITH LOWS THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...NGM INITIALIZED AND                    
CONTINUES TO DO WELL AT 18Z WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW               
NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER...AS WELL AS THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST AND               
CONSEQUENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO.  ONLY MODEL TO PICK ON            
SNOW AMOUNT ACROSS CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON WAS THE ETA WITH THE              
RUC DOING GOOD WITH THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIP...WITH OTHER            
MODELS UNDERDOING PRECIP AMOUNTS COMPLETELY. MODELS NOT DOING WELL IN           
LOW CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL COLD POCKET CURRENTLY MOVING                
SOUTH ACROSS NE IOWA WRN WI BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH THE NGM               
VERIFYING THE CLOSEST. WILL SIDE WITH RUC IN TIMING OF END OF PRECIP            
THIS EVENING...AND WITH A BLEND OF NGM/AVN FOR CLOUD COVER. WITH FAN            
TEMPS LOOKING THE BEST TONIGHT.                                                 
TONIGHT...                                                                      
BIG QUESTION IN SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF PRECIP TO END ACROSS ERN CWA.           
VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO THE                  
EVENING HOURS...GIVING GOOD EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SNOW BAND THROUGH           
THE ERN ZONES. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT SOUTHERN END OF BAND           
IS MAINLY -SN AND IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST. IR SAT TRENDS SHOW             
GOOD WARMING OF CLOUD TEMPS INDICATING WEAKENING OF DYANAMIC LIFT AS            
WELL. THIS SHOULD GIVE MOST LOCATIONS IN ERN ZONES WITH LIGHT SNOW              
ENDING FROM THE WEST...WHILE FAR NE COUNTIES WILL SEE MOD SNOW WITH             
ACCUMULATIONS OF ANOTHER INCH BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST BY 00Z.               
WILL WORD ZONES IN THE EAST TO REFLECT THIS DIMINISHING TREND WITH AN           
EVENING WORDING. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE TO ISSUE WORDING FOR               
THESE ZONES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS/SPOTTER REPORTS. NEXT QUESTION                
TONIGHT IS LOW TEMPS. VERY LARGE RANGE OF SNOWCOVER COULD HAVE                  
PRONOUNCED EFFECT ON LOW TEMPS. MOST AREAS IN THE NW DIDN'T SEE ANY             
SNOW AT ALL. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL SEE THE CALMEST WINDS. WHILE              
AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND SE ZONES WILL SEE GRADIENT WINDS RELAXING              
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS DIVERGE ON LOW CLOUD COVER AS WELL...WITH THE              
ETA THE MOST BULLISH IN KEEPING 80%+ RH IN TO CENTRAL/ERN ZONES                 
THROUGH 12Z. IR/VIS SAT INDICATES THAT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED             
WITH 850MB COLD POOL. ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COLD POOL SHOULD            
SHIFT EAST OF CWA DURING THE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES            
IN THE WEST EARLY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE. FOR THE EASTERN ZONES             
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING AT THE LATEST...SO            
WILL GO WITH BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. MOS OUTPUTS AGREE IN              
DECOUPLING WINDS. NGMMOS OVERDID TEMPS LAST NIGHT NEAR RIDGE AXIS               
AROUND 3 DEGREES...SO WILL UNDERCUT IN MOST ZONES...AND FOLLOW CLOSER           
TO FAN NUMBERS. MAY SEE EVEN COLDER TEMPS IN AREAS THAT HAVE THICK              
SNOW COVER.                                                                     
MONDAY...                                                                       
SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH             
SHIFT TO THE SE OF CWA. TEMPS WILL CONTRAST BETWEEN AREAS THAT                  
HAD SNOW COVER AND THOSE THAT DIDN'T. 850 TEMPS WARM TO BETWEEN 2               
AND 3C BY LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. WILL LIKELY SEE                 
TEMPS APPROACHING FWC NUMBERS IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER OUT WEST. WILL             
UNDERCUT FWC/FAN NUMBERS IN AREAS WITH SNOWCOVER..AS TEMPS SHOULD               
BE HELD TO THE LOWER 30S.                                                       
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...                                                     
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF              
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS                 
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLDER AGAIN IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE                    
REMAINING SNOW COVER AND IN ERN ZONES WHERE WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THE             
BEST...WITH WRN ZONES SEEING WARMER CONDS AS WINDS WILL STAY UP AT 5            
KTS OR MORE HELPING TO PREVENT GOOD RAD COOLING ALONG WITH THING.               
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS.               
NEXT MAJOR TROUGH POISED TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE                     
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT               
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.                   
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING WITH IT GOOD WARMUP FOR MOST LOCATIONS             
DURING THE DAY SO WILL FAVOR WARMER FAN NUMBERS.                                
EXTENDED...                                                                     
DPROG/DT INDICATES THAT LATEST AVN RUN IN AGREEMENT WITH YESTERDAY'S            
BELIEF THAT NEXT TROUGH SHOULD DIG MORE INTO THE SW U.S. 12Z AVN                
ALSO SHOWS SYSTEM TO BE DEEPER THAN 00Z MRF. GIVEN GOOD TRACK RECORD            
OF AVN THIS FALL HAVE NO QUALM IN BELIEVING A CONTINUED                         
INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. WITH A DEEPER                
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE WEST...WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER                   
CONDITIONS ON WED THAN TUE AS WAA CONTINUES DESPITE THE INCREASE                
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH GOING                     
FORECAST. NEXT QUESTION BECOMES TIMING AND DURATIONS OF PRECIP FOR              
NEXT SYSTEM. LATEST EURO/UKMET IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AND IN LINE              
WITH LATEST AVN IN TROUGH DIGGING INTO 4 CORNERS REGION BY EARLY WED.           
THIS SLOWER DEEPER SOLUTION WOULD ARGUE FOR HOLDING OFF PRECIP UNTIL            
THURS ACROSS CWA...AS BEST LIFT REMAINS ACROSS SRN PLAINS. COLD                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS IA/NE BORDER             
UNTIL MAIN ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF PLAINS ON THURSDAY...AND SHORTWAVE              
PHASES WITH NRN STREAM WAVE. THIS SYSTEM LOOK REMARKABLY SIMILAR TO             
LAST ONE...AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY SIMILAR TRACK OF               
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW AS MRF INDICATING. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH             
CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURS...WHICH SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL               
SNOW FRI BEFORE ENDING LATE FRI. BUT SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AS              
NEXT MAJOR STORM MOVING INTO SW U.S. WILL HELP EJECT IT. ACTIVE                 
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.                                  
...PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE           
ARE CONTAINED WITHIN QUAD CITIES ZONE FORECAST.                                 
DBQ BU 018/034 021/044 029 77000                                                
CID BU 015/036 022/045 031 77000                                                
MLI BU 015/033 021/043 030 77000                                                
BRL BU 019/034 023/045 032 77000                                                
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
CROSBIE                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 052025  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1242 PM EST SUN DEC 5 1999                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MST CLD CVR MOVG NE AWAY FROM CENT CWA. SOME DIURNAL CU FORMING                 
THOUGH. ALSO...TEMPS ALREADY REACHING FCST MAXES W AND CENT CWA. AGS            
MAY REACH RECORD MAX OF 77. WINDS PICKING UP A BIT.                             
.PREV DISC...                                                                   
SKC OVR CAE CWA ATTM. CLDS ALG THE CST AND INTO SE GA...WITH WDLY               
SCT SHRA NR CST. 12Z CHS SOUNDING INDICATES MOISTURE 900-750 MB WITH            
WIND DIR SW AT THAT LEVEL. SATL TRENDS INDICATE NE MVMT OF                      
CLDS...WITH APPEARANCE THAT CSRA WILL SEE LESS CLDNS THIS AFTN THAN             
REMAINDER CWA. LTST RUC SUPPORTS MOISTURE STREAMING NE...AND                    
CONFINES PCPN TO NR THE CST. SO...WILL WORD LESS CLDS CSRA...AND                
REMOVE POP FOR THEM. WILL ALSO RAISE MAX TEMPS CSRA DUE TO MORE SUN.            
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 051531  sc