STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
212 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
WHILE SOME DATA MSG FOR NGM...SEEMS TO BE ENUF TO JUDGE ITS
SIMILARITY TO ETA ERY IN ITS RUN. ALL MODELS FOLLOW RUC WELL FOR 1ST
PD WHICH TAKES WRAP ARND CU NEWD WITH DEEP LO PRES OVR QUEBEC TNGT.
CLRG EVIDENT OUT OF NRN IL ARND ZN ISSUANCE TIME. SO SHUD START OFF
CLR FOR ZNS WITH STG WEST WNDS DIMINISHG TO LGT SW CNTL IL AND W
5-10 NRN IL.
MOS BRINGS IN SCT AC FM WK S/W OVR WI/GRTLKS TMRW. WHILE CARRYING
PTSUNNY IN CURRENT FCST...MAY LEAN TO MOSUNNY DEPENDING ON COORD
WITH DVN. AFT 24HRS NGM DATA MSG. ETA AND AVN DRIVE DEEPENING S/W
NOW ENTERING SRN PAC CST ACRS SRN ROCKIES AND INTO CNTL PLAINS WED
NGT AND THU. BOTH INDICATE VRY STG LO LVL JET WITH MASSIVE LIFT
ADVECTING INTO IL ON THU FROM SW. ETA FASTER AND WUD PREFER TO HOLD
ONTO SLOWER AVN BRINGING THREAT OF TSTMS INTO CNTL IL MIDDAY THU AND
DVLPG IN AFTN NERN IL. WED NGT SHUD SEE AN INCRS IN CLDS LT CNTL AND
BY MRNG NERN IL.
STG SFC TRAJ WUD INDICATE THAT LOWS TNGT WILL APPROX THE LWR FAN
TEMPS. LOWS ACRS IA LAST NGT ARND 40 AND LWR 40S NRN MO. SO WILL
MODEL FCST TEMPS TNGT CLOSER TO FANS. RETURN TO STG SW FLO WED WUD
AT FIRST SUGGEST WARMER MOS TEMPS BUT SINCE STARTING OUT LWR THAN
MOS WILL ADJUST DOWN SEVERAL DEGS AND GO FOR THE 'SPLIT THE DIF'
TECHNIQUE. SAME FOR WED NGT SINCE AM PUSHING INCRSG CLDNSS BACK
FURTHER THAN NGM. ON THU TEMPS SIMILAR...HOWEVER SELY FLO FM LK MICH
INTO NERN IL WLL SUGGEST TEMP VARIABILITY FRM INLAND TEMPS IN LWR OR
MID 60S TO ARND 50 NR THE LAKE.
.CHI...GALE LS
BRUMER
NNNN  il
SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
943 AM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
STNRY FRONT LOCATED OVER SE LA THIS MORNING. VIS STLT SHOWS LOW CLDS
EXTENDING SE OF AEX...POE...BPT LINE. RUC MODELS HAS GOOD HANDLE ON
SITUATION. NEED TO UPDATE ZONES TO TWEAK SKY CONDITIONS OVER SE TX
AND REMOVE PATCHY FOG FOR LA. OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD.
13
LCH EB 081/064 081/067 002
LFT EB 080/065 081/067 202
AEX EB 081/061 080/066 002
BPT BB 082/066 082/068 002
NNNN  la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1010 AM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
12Z SFC LO CNTRD BTWN EAU AND AUW WITH STRNG PRES GRAD SW OF SFC
SYSTM. ASSOCIATED S/W SW OF GRB. COLDER TOPS NE OF SHORT WAVE
EXITING FA WHILE LOWER CLD AND FOG WIDESPRD ACRS CWA WITH SFC SYSTM.
MQT 88D SHOWS A FEW SCT -SHRA WITH MOST RETURNS ARND 35 DBZ AND A
FEW PINHEAD 40 DBZ.
PROBLEM FOR DAY IS FLOOD POTENTIAL. AT THIS WRITING ALL GROUND TRUTH
REPORTS SUGGEST FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LESSINING WITH REPORTS OF
DECREASING RIVER STAGES. COOLER AIR FILTERING IN TO REAR OF SFC LO
WILL SLOW DOWN FURTHER SNOW MELT IN THE AREAS WITH REMAINING
SNOWPACK AND PRECIP AMTS WILL BE SCT AND LIGHT AS SYSTM PULLS AWAY
FM FA DURNG AFTN.
LATEST 12Z RUC HAS MOVS SFC LO E OR IMT BY 15Z AND NE OF MQT BY 18Z
THEN QUICKLY INTO ONTARIO.  WESTERLY COOLER FLO TO REAR OF SYSTM
WILL OVRSPRD FA AS SFC LO MOVS TO NE. FAIRLY BLUSTERY CONDS DVLPG
WITH A FEW FLAKES PSBL WRN PTNS. ONLY CHANGE WITH MRNG UPDATE WILL
BE FRESHENING OF WORDING OTRW LTL CHANGE.
.MQT...FLOOD WATCH MIZ001>005-009>011-013 TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MACHOWSKI
NNNN  mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1030 AM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS LAYERED CLOUDS SHIFTING EAST OF THE TWIN
CITIES AND MILLE LACS LAKE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE
CLOUDS DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS LINE. 12Z NGM SHOWS 110 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET AXIS SHIFTING RAPIDLY NORTH ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
UPPER JET AND SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THINK WINDS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL FOLLOW SUIT AS SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL
AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST RUC AND NGM BOTH PUSH
THE SURFACE LOW PAST LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
.MSP...NONE.
 WH
NNNN  mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
914 AM MDT TUE APR 06 1999
NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AND THE CORRECTION TO THE ZONES WAS
SENT EARLIER.
NEW MODEL RUNS NOT YET IN NTRANS AND THE LATEST RUC RUN NOT IN SYSTEM.
JUDGING FROM THE SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES FORECAST ARE BALLPARK.
DEFORMATION ZONE EVIDENT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE WARMED.
INSTABILITY YET AROUND SO WOULD THINK THAT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OUGHT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALREADY IN GOING PACKAGE.  CHB
BIL BB 055/030 059/035 060 52000
LVM .. 052/026 057/... ... 52200
HDN .. 060/028 063/... ... 52000
MLS .. 059/030 063/033 ... 52000
4BQ .. 052/025 058/... ... 52000
BHK .. 050/023 056/... ... 52000
SHR BB 050/025 056/029 057 52220
BUR EB 039/018 042/024 042 52220
NNNN  mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
912 AM MDT TUE APR 06 1999
NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH A CORRECTED SET NEEDS TO BE
SENT.
NEW MODEL RUNS NOT YET IN NTRANS AND THE LATEST RUC RUN NOT IN SYSTEM.
JUDGING FROM THE SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES FORECAST ARE BALLPARK.
DEFORMATION ZONE EVIDENT ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVE WARMED.
INSTABILITY YET AROUND SO WOULD THINK THAT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OUGHT TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALREADY IN GOING PACKAGE.  CHB
BIL BB 055/030 059/035 060 52000
LVM .. 052/026 057/... ... 52200
HDN .. 060/028 063/... ... 52000
MLS .. 059/030 063/033 ... 52000
4BQ .. 052/025 058/... ... 52000
BHK .. 050/023 056/... ... 52000
SHR BB 050/025 056/029 057 52220
BUR EB 039/018 042/024 042 52220
NNNN  mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
955 AM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
13Z SFC ANLYS HAS FNT INTO WRN IN AND RAMSDIS HAS SOME WRAP AROUND
MSTR OVR CNTRL/NRN IL. MOST OF THIS MSTR SHUD PUSH NE WTH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW...BUT WL INCRS CLDYNESS FM DAY AREA N AS
AMS SLOW TO DRY OUT IN THIS AREA ESPCY.
EVEN THO MAIN LINE OF ACTIVITY SHUD BE EAST OF CNTRL PTN OF FA BY
11AM...SRN PTN OF FNT LAGGING A BIT. SO WL KEEP LKLY POPS FOR S
CNTRL OH/NE KY THRU ERLY AFTN. WL TAKE DOWN POPS FOR CNTRL OH TO
HIGH CHC AS COVERAGE FOR ANY LINGERING SHRA SHUD BE SCT AT BEST. 9Z RUC
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING MOVMT OF PCPN VERY WELL...AND LEAVES PSBL
LINGERING SHRA IN CNTRL OH.
WL ALSO INCRS WNDS TO 20 TO 30 IN SW ZONE GRPNG AS WNDS PICKING UP
OVR SRN IN.
DIAN-REED
NNNN  oh
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1015 AM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
ATTM HI PRES OVR THE AREA WITH TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S..LTL HIR S CST.
NELY LOW LVL FLOW SHD CONT THIS AFTN BCMG ELY WITH TIME. RUC BRINGS S/WV
ACRS THE AREA THIS AFTN FOR CONT SCT SHWRS. SATL LOOPS A LTL LACKING
THIS AM..CNTRL SXNS AND LESS CHC EWD. WITH CLDY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONT
ACRS CENTRAL SXNS WL LWR TEMPS THERE AND ADJUST TEMPS ALG THE CST AS PER
CHS AFD. OTRW FCST WL CONT AS IS.
.CAE...NONE.
CDL
NNNN  sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
946 AM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
CAE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF -DZ THIS AM OVER CWA. MAY WANT TO INCLUDE THIS
IN ZFP. ALSO MIGHT WANT TO INCLUDE A RANGE OF TEMPS BETWEEN COAST AND
INLAND AS EASTERLY FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP COAST COOLER THAN INLAND.
ATL...FCST GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OCCLUDED LOW OVER GREAT LAKES WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO MS VALLEY. AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD AREA
THIS AFTN...WEDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN AND CWA WILL TEND TO GET IN MORE
OF A SE FLOW. RUC CONTINUES TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. CWA THEN GETS IN SE FLOW AND LOOKS LIKE WE
COULD BREAK OUT AND SEE A LITTLE SUN THIS AFTN. ALL AVALIABLE DATA SHOWS
MOST OF ENERGY MOVING WELL TO N OF AREA. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TODAY SO A POP FREE OR SLIGHT POP FCST
LOOKS GOOD.
CWF...AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WINDS OVER THE WATERS HAVE WEAKENED
AS WELL. AND SEAS ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH SEAS MAY
STILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. BUT BELIEVE THIS
SHOULD COME DOWN SHORTLY SO WILL JUST HEADLINE WITH AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT. REST OF MARINE AREA SHOULD BE FINE WITHOUT A
HEADLINE. WILL JUST MAKE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
.CHS...
.SC...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
MRD/
NNNN  sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD        RETRANSMISSION
1045 AM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE FROM EASTERN KS TO NORTHWEST ND...
WITH A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ACROSS EASTERN CWA.
12Z RUC SUGGESTS SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOT MOVE THROUGH FAR EASTERN CWA
UNTIL THIS EVENING...SO WILL MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST.  SKIES HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED ACROSS CWA...AND WILL GO
TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING IN ZONES.  TOUGH TO GAUGE
TEMPS RIGHT NOW WITH SO MUCH HEATING TIME LEFT IN THE DAY...BUT
BASED ON 11Z LAMP GUIDANCE...SOME AREAS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH MAY BE
A LITTLE TOO LOW.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TEMP
DEPARTMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES.
.FSD...NONE
 HAMEN
NNNN  sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD
AND FOR BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES OF MN...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1002 AM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS C AND NC SD THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS HEATING INCREASES AND WEAK
SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST. 12Z RUC SHOWS THE WINDS GOING TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AS RIDGE SLIDES EAST WITH TEMPS RISING TO 60 TO 65 ACROSS C
SD. WILL UPDATE ALL ZONES TO MAKE CHANGES TO SKY COVER...TEMPS AND
WINDS.
.ABR...NONE.
MOHR
NNNN  sd
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
MAINLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
TUESDAY MORNING.  HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS...STILL EXPECTING SUN TO POKE THRU LATER THIS MORNING AS A FEW
PEEKS OF BLUE SKY ARE EVIDENT FROM TIME TO TIME HERE AT THE
BROWNSVILLE WEATHER BUNKER.  SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT FROM FLOW AROUND
TROF HEADED FOR WEST COAST AND RIDGE AXIS SITUATED TO OUR EAST IS
BRINGING A SMATTERING OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA AS WELL THE
LOW CLOUDS BROUGHT IN ON THE HEELS OF THE LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MORNING SOUNDING SATURATED IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND
FEET...THEN VERY DRY TIL YOU GET UP TO THE CIRRUS. A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING WITH LIFTED INDEX UP TO -3.  MORNING RUC
NOT PORTENDING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR TODAY...WITH NO APPRECIABLE
LIFT TO BE FOUND. REMNANTS OF SURFACE FRONT STALLED TO OUR NORTH NOT
LIKELY TO DO MUCH EXCEPT TOTALLY WASH OUT TODAY WITH YESTERDAYS
EXPECTED RESPITE FROM THE 70S DEWPOINTS NOW ONLY A FADED MEMORY.
SURFACE WIND SHOULD VEER TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE DAYLIGHT ENDS OVER THE
LAND.
ON THE COASTAL WATERS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD VEER TO EAST
BY DAYS END WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
.BRO...NONE.
VALONE
NNNN  tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 AM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
DSCN:
NOT TO IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHCS NXT 24 HRS AS BEST LFT/DYNMCS
GO NW OF FA...BUT SOME PCPN WILL OCCUR AS CDFRNT CROSSES RGN.
MODELS GNRLY AGREE IN WEAKENING RH FIELDS WITH FROPA...HOWEVER
OTHR FACTORS WILL COME INTO PLAY. FOR TODAY...MST SE FLOW ALRDY
CAUSING CLDS AOB 5K FT ACROSS WRN PIEDMONT ERLY THIS AM...WITH
PLNTY OF CI STREAMING IN ACROSS NC. 03Z RUC INDCTG LL MSTR BRKS
UP A BIT THIS AM AS FLOW BCMG SRLY. MEANWHILE...MSTR FIELDS FROM
APPRCHG H5 S/W & FRNT OVRSPRD PIEDMONT AREAS THIS AFTRN WHILE
ATLNTC RIDGE HOLDS TIGHT OVR ERN CNTYS. XPCT WAA TO PROVIDE JUST
ENUF LIFT FOR 30 POPS OVR WRN PIEDMONT THIS AFTRN. WILL THROW 20
POPS (TOWARDS EVE) ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR PER COORD CALL WITH LWX.
PT SUNNY ELSEWHERE. AFTR A CHILLY START...SRLY WNDS BOOST HIGHS
BTWN 65-70 MOST AREAS. WITH H20 TMPS IN M-U40S AND A ONSHORE WND
...ATLNTC FACING BEACHES WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S.
FRNT CROSSES FA TONITE WITH A NARROW BAND OF MSTR. WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS WITH FROPA...MAINLY THIS EVE OVR ALL BUT SE VA/NE
NC ZONES WHERE ANY SHWRS CUD LINGER TILL SR. LOWS U40S-L50S.
FRNT PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS NC WED. ETA KEEPS MSTR ARND AT DFRNT
LVLS WHILE NGM/AVN ARE A BIT DRYER. WILL GO WITH MSTLY SUNNY MOST
AREAS BUT KEEP PT SUNNY SE VA/NE NC. W-NW FLOW OVR VA SHUD AID IN
BOOSTING TMPS IN THE 70S.
BNDRY MEANDERS BACK & FORTH THRU XTNDD PRD. TIMING OF ANY PCPN
A TOUGH CALL ATTM...HOWEVER BEST CHC FOR POPS COMES FRI/SAT WHEN
ANTHR CDFRNT MOVS IN FROM THE W.
CSTL WTRS...SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO SCA. WNDS STAY AOB 20 KTS.
.AKQ...NONE.
44
NNNN  va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
949 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
02Z SFC ANLYS PLACES RDG ALG MS RVR WITH LOW DVLPG OVR NWRN SD AND
ASSOCD WRM FNT EXTENDING INTO MN.  SKIES SHOULD RMN MSTLY CLR OVNGT
SO TEMPS AND WNDS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.  TEMPS MAY HAVE TO
BE RAISED A CATEGORY IN PLACES HWVR.  PRES FALL CNTR STILL OVR SD
INVOF WRM FNT...SKIES MSTLY CLR AND TEMPS STILL DROPPING NICELY BUT
00Z RUC INDCS PRES GRAD AND LOW LVL WRM ADVCTN BOTH INCRG OVNGT AHD
OF APCHG CDFNT.  SFC DWPNTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S N SHOULD KEEP
MINS OUT OF THE UPR 30S.
.DSM...NONE
SMALL
NNNN  ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
858 PM MDT TUE APR 6 1999
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION OVER THE
NEXT 21 HOURS.
LATEST RUC AND INCOMING ETA...ALONG WITH OBS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
FRONT RANGE...INDICATE A WEAK LEE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
WE HOURS OF THE MORNING.  THIS WILL TURN WINDS FROM CURRENT
SOUTHEAST TO WEST FOR ALL BUT EASTERN GROUPS.
WIND DIRECTION LOOKS TO BE RATHER VARIABLE IN THE MORNING...BUT
EXPLOSIVE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
SEEMS LIKELY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 150 KT 250 MB JET
EJECT OUT FROM THE BASE OF GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW.  THIS WILL FORCE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST WINDS INTO AT LEAST THE BREEZY...
IF NOT WINDY.
.GLD...NONE.
ENTWISTLE
NNNN  ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EST TUE APR 6 1999
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE LOW CENTERED
THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENTLY LEFT IN ITS WAKE IS RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE MAINLY NORTH OF M-32.
00Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRYING TO OCCUR IN THE LOW LEVELS
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  THIS EVENING'S IR SAT LOOP SEEMS TO
CONFIRM MODEL SOUNDING FORECAST AS CLEARING LINE HAS MOVED FROM
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND
EXTENDS SOUTH TO NEAR GRAND RAPIDS ATTM.  WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CLEARING...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN IN THE WESTERN
CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT AND REACH EASTERN AREAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND. 02Z SURAFCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
FURTHEST AWAY FROM SURFACE LOW. AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
RELAXES WITH THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AREA WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  HAVE KEPT WINDY WORDING BUT HAVE
TONED IT DOWN IN FORECAST.
.APX...NONE.
FITZSIMMONS
NNNN  mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
925 PM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
PUBLIC...LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOW LOW PRES OVER SE ONTARIO. HIGH
PRESURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING TO
THE NORTH. THIS RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. WEAK
SUBSIDENCE  WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RIDGE...WITH DRYING IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. LOW LAYERS STAY RATHER MOIST.  LATEST SATL PICS SHOW
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WEST....SOME PATCHY CLOUDS UPSTREAM WITH STILL
M/CLDY SKIES EAST.  THUS THE PREVIOUS PARTLY CLOUDY FCST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD WEST...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL
CLEARING EAST. A VORT MAX OVER N MN SHOULD PASS OVER THE LAKE
OVERNIGHT...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS TO
PASS TO THE NORTH. GUSTY WINDS TO SLOWLY EASE...ESPECIALLY WEST.
TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET.
MARINE...GUSTY W WINDS CONTINUE OVER ERN SUPERIOR WITH STDM4 HAVING
A PK WIND OF 40 KTS.  NOT AS WINDY WEST.  RUC FORECASTING 40 KTS AT
950 MB OVER THE EAST THROUGH THROUGH 06Z...WITH A DECLINING TREND
THERE AFTER. OVER THE WEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE AND DON'T
EXPECT AN INCREASE....WILL THUS LOWER GALES WEST. COORD
W/YQT...THANKS.
.MQT...GLW EAST.
LULOFS
NNNN  mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING AREA OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PROFILER PLAN VIEW INDICATED
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB OVER THE PLAINS. LATEST RUC DATA
SHOWS A 500 MB WAVE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER THIS EVENING...
MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.
WILL AMEND ZONES TO CHANGE CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND UPDATE
THE WIND FORECAST. THOUGHT ABOUT TINKERING WITH TEMPERATURES...BUT
CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.
SUTTON
NNNN  mo
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
850 PM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
OVERALL...ZONE FORECAST IN LINE W/ CURRENT THINKING...ONLY A FEW
CHANGES W/ THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
WEAK VORT MOVING OVERHEAD HAD SPARKED ISOLATED TSRA AND WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION REMAINED LIMITED
AND HAS SINCE DIMINISHED COMPLETELY. PRIMARY CHANGE THIS UPDATE
WILL BE FOR THE REMOVAL OF POPS. 21Z RUC SHOWS ANOTHER MINOR VORT
AT H5 THAT SHOULD MIGRATE OUT OF GA TOWARD DAY BREAK AND REMAIN TO
OUR S. IN ADDITION...DRYING IN MID-UPPER LEVELS W/ PROGRESSION OF
VORT NOW THROUGH THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CAROLINAS AS PROJECTED IN
RUC DATA AND JUSTIFIED THROUGH THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS.
APPEARS THAT THE BULK MID-UPPER LAYER >60% RHS WILL BE DISPLACED
OFF THE COAST BY 06Z.
MOSTLY CLOUDY LOOKS REASONABLE TONIGHT MAINLY ERN AREAS W/
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE PRESENT IN LOW LEVELS. MAY TREND INLAND AREAS
AS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE 50S ALONG THE
COAST W/ A BIT OF A MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE INLAND ZONES WHERE
DWPTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S AT THE MOMENT. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE A TAD COOLER THAN THE LATEST LAMP PROJECTIONS...
HOWEVER GIVEN SLIGHT VARIATION SEE NO NEED TO ADJUST.
CWF: MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MORE OF A SLY WIND...SO UPDATE
WILL FOCUS ON INITIAL WINDS...OTHERWISE LOOKS GOOD.
.ILM...NONE.
PFAFF (PUBLIC)/LGE (AVIATION)
NNNN  nc
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM, NC
840 PM EDT TUE APR 06 1999
PLAN ON SLIGHTLY EARLIER-THAN-SCHEDULED UPDATE AS WEATHER CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS WEAK S/W
PUSHING QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...SWEEPING MID/HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY EWD OUT OF CENTRAL NC. 00Z SOUNDINGS AT GSO
AND MHX DEPICT SHALLOW MOISTURE AT BEST...ESPECIALLY GSO. DUE TO
MOISTURE BECOMING MORE LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL FOCUS WELL WEST OF
AREA...WILL REMOVER POP FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.
WHILE SURFACE FRONT NEAR/WEST OF NC MOUNTAINS. CLEARING SKIES HAVE
REACHED NW PIEDMONT AND SHOULD CROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT SHORTLY.
BOTH 18Z AND 21Z RUC HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLEARING
TREND...COINCIDING FAIRLY WELL WITH 50% MEAN RH. THUS EXPECT WESTERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES BY 03Z...WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY 06Z (A LITTLE LATER OVER SAMPSON
COUNTY).
SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO LIE BETWEEN GSO AND RDU BY 12Z WED
THUS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL NOT REACH AREAS EAST OF TRIANGLE UNTIL
WED AM. WITH LIGHT SW FLOW AND DELAYED ARRIVAL OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
THUS WILL LIKELY RAISE OVERNIGHT TEMPS A CAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REST OF
CWA APPEAR ON TARGET.
WILL NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENT TO SECOND PERIOD DUE TO IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS.
.RDU...NONE.
WSS
NNNN  nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1035 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
UPDATE 3....
MID CLD DEVELOPMENT ON SATELLITE IMPRESSIVE OVER ND.  88D SHOWING
INCREASING AMT OF LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACTIVITY...SPCLY SE ND.
LOOKING AT 00Z RUC SHOWS 12Z MODEL GREATLY UNDER ESTIMATED MOISTURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SFC DEW PTS RUNNING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...HIGHER THAN PROGGED BY NGM/ETA.  RUC ALSO SHOWS GOOD MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREA ATTM AIDING IN MID
LEVEL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
WILL UPDATE TO ADD ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF ERN ND AND PARTS OF
WCNTRL MN.
CONCERNING LOW CLDS/FOG TREND IN GFK/DVL AREA...VERY HARD TO TELL RIGHT
NOW WHERE LOW CLDS ARE AS HIGH LEVEL CLDS OVER REGION.  WILL LEAVE PREV
ZFP UPDATE ALONE.  SPOTTY AREAS DOWN BLO 1/2SM BUT MOST AREAS ARE ABV
2SM.
UPDATE OUT SOON.
.FGF...NONE.
RIDDLE
NNNN  nd
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
800 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
FCST CONCERNS...CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS IN NE ND/NW MN AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
SFC MAP SHOWS SFC LOW IN SASK WITH SFC TROF MOVING THRU ERN MT.  THIS
SHOWN WELL BY 18Z RUC AND 12Z MODELS IN HAVING IT MOVE THRU CWFA ON
WEDNESDAY SWITCHING WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY.
FOR TONIGHT...THIS TROF ACTED UPON MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DUE TO
DAYTIME SFC HEATING TO CAUSE SOME SCT -SHRA FROM SW MB THRU NW ND AND
SE MT.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND DIE OFF AFTER DARK.  THUS
WILL KEEP DRY FCST GOING IN DVL ZONE...BUT KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR.
SATELLITE SHOWS PERSISTANT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING
NORTHEAST...COVERING AREA FROM DVL TO GFK TO ROX.  EXPECT THESE CLOUDS
TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT....BUT WILL TWEEK WORDING
IN THE CLOUD AREA TO GO DECREASING CLOUDS.  ALSO DVL IS 1/2SM FG SO
WILL ADD SOME FOG TO DVL ZONE.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPS PLANNED.
EXPECT AN EARLY UPDATE OUT BY 815 PM.
.FGF...NONE.
RIDDLE
NNNN  nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
LATEST SFC ANLYS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST OF THE
CWA WITH THKNS ADVECTION EXPECTED BY THE RUC THROUGH 12Z.  HAVE
INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS A NOTCH OR TWO...WITH SOME CONCERN THAT IT
STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. HOWEVER ANY LULL IN THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
SOME COOL POOLING AROUND THE ASOS SITES SO DID NOT WANT TO DIVERGE
TOO MUCH FM ORIGINAL FCST. WK UPPER LVL TROF /PER MDLS AND STLT/ MAY
INCREASE SOME CLD CVR FOR THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA...BUT EXPECT A DRY
FCST TO REMAIN.
.FSD...NONE
BR
NNNN  sd
NORTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
919 PM CDT TUE APR 6 1999
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO ADJUST A FEW
MINOR THINGS WITH AN UPDATE. MODELS AND LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED
TO TWEAK WORDING IN FEW ZONES FOR INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK GOOD BUT AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT OUT WEST
WERE 9 PM DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE MID 30S. OLD RUC SHOWED
DEWPOINT TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH 09Z...HOWEVER
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING THAT MUCH.
UPPER 50S MAY BE BETTER FOR KABI AREA AND AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST OF
THERE. MAY MAKE LAST MINUTE CHANGES AS INPUT FROM KSJT ARRIVES.
(80)
.FTW...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd
NNNN  tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
910 PM EDT TUE APR 6 1999
KFCX 88D AT 0050Z WAS RAINFREE. VAD WIND PROFILE HAD A DRY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST FLOW. AWIPS MOISTURE CHANNEL LOOP SHOWED DRIER AIR SPREADING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST
WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS EXPECTED. 00Z RNK SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY
ALITTLE MOISTURE AROUND 65 PERCENT RH FROM 850 TO 800 MB. 21Z RUC
AND 18Z MESOETA SUPPORT DRYING WHEN LOOKING AT THE 1000-500 MB RH
FIELDS. THE ETA DOES CREATE AN INTERESTING WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. PATCH OF 70 PLUS RH AND SOME VV NOTED. IN ANY
CASE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
AND LOOKED REASONABLE. HAVE A GUD NITE.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
KK
NNNN  va
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
305 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
.DISC...MORE GOOD FLYING KITE WX CONTINUES! (BETTER HOPE THOUGH YOUR
KITE IS MADE OF MYLAR OR EVEN BETTER ACRYLIC).
FA NARROWELY MISSED HVG TO DEAL WITH SVR WX OVN. BOTH THE RUC AND ETA
PROFILES SHOWD HIGH SFC-3K HELICITIES > 400 M/S2 OVR OUR FA.
FORTUNATELY CAPE WAS VRY LW (OR NON EXISTENT) THANKS 2 EXTREMELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWEST LYRS OF THE ATMOS. ONE CELL DID SUPPOSEDLY SPIT OUT
1/4 INCH HAIL IN FULTON COUNTY AND MAY HV HAD SOME PRTY SIG WIND
GUSTS WITH IT. HOWEVER IT MVD QUICKLY NEWD INTO MOOSE COUNTRY WITH NO
RPRTS OF ANY WIND (OR HAIL). LDS ALL QUIET NOW.
THE DRY AMS MAY HV SAVED US FRM AN ERLY SEASON SVR WX OUTBREAK.
HOWEVER THE PERSISTENT DRYNESS OF LATE IS CERTAINLY CAUSING ITS OWN
PROBLEMS. DAYS AND DAYS OF CONSIDERABLE WND AND SUN HAS REALLY DRIED
THE TOP SOIL OUT AMAZINGLY. SINCE FRESH VEGETATION IS ONLY VRY SLOLY
BLOOMING THE STAGE IS THERE FOR A HIGHER THAN USUAL FIRE POTENTIAL.
(MY OWN YARD INCLUDED). 2 MAKE MATTERS WORSE TDY WE WL HV A STIFF
WIND COMING OUT OF A WEST TO NORTWESTERLY DIRECTION. ATTM FRNT APPRS
2B IN VCTY OF KUCA AND WL CROSS THE CD BY SUNRISE. THE WIND WILL BE
MORE A PRODUCT OF GD MIXING AS THE STRONGEST CAA...DVM AND SFC GRAD
WB TAKING PLC BY EARLY THIS AM. THE FACT THAT THE BEST MIXING DOES
NOT LN UP WITH THE BEST CAA ALG WITH NO WINDS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING
50 KTS AT H8...SHLD PREVENT A DESTRUCTIVE WND EVNT. HOWEVER A 20-30
MPH WIND (GUSTING TO ARND 40 MPH) WL EASILY FAN ANY FIRES THAT SHOULD
DEVELOP. LTR CREWS NEED 2 TAKE A GD LK AT THE 12Z ALY SOUNDING. WE HV
DECIDED TO MENTION HEIGHTENED FIRE ALERT IN FWX PRODUCT ISSUED LTR
THIS AM. WE WL LV ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS 2 THE FWX FOCAL PT WHO IS
DUE IN LTR TDY.
ANY CLDS WL BREAK UP WITH GD MIXING AND DVM AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
FOR TON...UA 80-100+ JET WL RACE OVR US WITH YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...THIS ONE MORE OF CLIPPER TYPE LOW FRMG OVR SRN CAN. A SHOT
OF WK ISENTROPIC LFT (ASSCD WITH A WRMFNT) AND PRTY GD PVA COULD LD 2
SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY UP N WHERE THE BEST FORCG WL TAKE PLACE. ONCE
AGAIN MOISTURE WB LIMITED WITH ETA SPITTING OUT .09 INCHES OVR ALY
AND THE NGM NONE! WHATEVER SHOWERS WE GET WL CERTAINLY NOT ALLEVIATE
FIRE DANGER. WL MENTION THE POSS OF PL IN WRN ADRNCKDS ONLY AS EVAP
COOLG CLD PRODUCE TMPS NR FRZ ALFT FOR A BIT.
.THURSDAY...WRM FNT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY DRY CLDFNT. WIND LKS AS IF IT
WL KCK UP AGAIN. FOR NOW WL CALL IT WINDY ONLY OVR NRN MOUNTAINS (FWC
VALUES MAY BE A TAD HI) BUT EITHER WAY WL CALL IT BEC BREEZY
ELSEWHERE. WL INCLUDE A SML POP FRM KALB NWD ERLY IN THE DAY.
FWC POPS AND TEMPS WL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY THRUOUT THIS PACKAGE
(WITHIN 3 DEGS AND 10 PTS ANYWAYS)
.EXTENDED...PERHAPS THE MUCH LRGE AND SLOWER PROGD MOVG STM CAN BRING
MORE SUBSTANTIAL PCPN TO ALLEVIATE FIRE DANGER AS WE HEAD INTO WKND.
WL TRY 2 GET A LK AT NEW MRF BUT WITH CHANGE IN TIME WL HV 2
CERTAINLY ISSUE WRKZNS WELL BFR TIME THE NEW MRF ARRIVES.
PRELIMINARY WRKZFP AVBL. WL SENT COMPLETE ONE OUT BY 330 AM AND THE
FINAL PRODUCE ISSUED BY 4 AM. BYE BYE!
.ALB...NONE.
HWJIV
NNNN  ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER CWA ORIENTED SW-NE. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT WITH MID 40S BEHIND.
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT SEEN ON SATELLITE
LOOP...CLEAR SKIES BEHIND. 03Z RUC HAS FRONT MOVING VERY LITTLE
THROUGH MID-MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS HAVE CLOUDS/FOG CLEARING OUT BY
15Z. AFTER THAT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH VERY BROAD RIDGING ALOFT.
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE JUST TO THE S OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND
WASH OUT.
TONIGHT STRONG SURFACE/UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM 4-CORNERS REGION INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SEND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL FORECAST INCREASING CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS FOR
SEVERAL POINTS AROUND THE CWA...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED...MAINLY
MID/HIGH VARIETY. FLOW WILL BE W TO SW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND W TO NW
ABOVE THAT. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR GULF MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED AND
SENT INTO THE CWA SO LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE APPROACH OF COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. THEREFORE
AM NOT BUYING CHANCE POPS PUT FORTH BY FWC/FAN FOR THURS AFTERNOON.
WILL FCST A DRY DAY.
WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY WITH W TO NW WINDS DOWNSLOPING
INTO VALLEY WITH STRONG SPRING SUNSHINE. FWC/FAN BLEND FOR TONIGHT
SEEMS BEST. WENT WITH COOLER FWC HIGHS THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
THE FOLLOWING IS FOR FORECAST COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
CHA UE 085/054 082/060 085 09000
TYS UE 081/052 080/059 082 09000
TRI UE 078/049 077/056 079 09000
OQT UE 081/052 080/059 082 09000
AUSTIN
NNNN  tn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
FORECAST ISSUE TODAY IS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT ZIPPING EAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. RECENT
MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE... BUT LAST EVENING'S 00Z RUNS OF THE AVN ETA AND NGM HAD A
LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS PLACE THE 500MB
TROF FROM LAKE WINNIPEG DOWN THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z. THERE IS A
SURFACE PRESSURE TROF THAT AGREES WITH THIS PLACEMENT... BUT RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITATION PATTERN SUGGEST THE REAL WEATHER
OF CONCERN IS TO THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND 285K
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE A FACTOR. AS OF 10AM EDT... CONVECTIVE LINE
EXTENDS FROM KDLH DOWN THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND IS HEADING EAST. A
TRICKLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN END OF
THIS LINE... AND A SHELF OF OVERCAST CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
UPPER MICHIGAN PRECEDES THIS LINE.  MOST OF MINNESOTA AND THE
DAKOTAS IS CLEAR... AND THIS CLEARING WILL REACH THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AND THERE IS A POSSIBILTY
OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE LINE HEADING EAST. ETA SHOWS A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND LI'S OF AROUND ZERO... AND THE 12Z RUC IS CONSISTENT
WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN SHOWING VERTICAL TOTALS INTO THE LOWER 30'S
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER.  WILL RETAIN MENTION OF
ISOLATED TAME THUNDER IN LATE-MORNING ZFP UPDATE.
.MQT...NONE.
ES
NNNN  mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1015 AM CDT WED APR 7 1999
.MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
14Z SFC PLOTS POSITIONED SFC FNT NR ROX-PKD LN MVG EAST...JUST A
TAD SLOWER THAN PREV RUNS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...12Z RUC HIGHLIGHTED
GUD THETA-E RDG AND LOW LVL JET POKING INTO NE MN. IN ADDITION...
SPEED MAX PUNCHING THROUGH SRN MN HELPING TO PROVIDE GUD H3 DIV OVR
NE MN. AS A RESULT...SCT -SHRA AND -TSRA CONT TO PUSH THRU THE AREA
THIS AM. EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF DENSE
FOG FROM CLOQUET ON UP THE NORTH SHORE. UPDATED AM FORECAST TO ADD
MENTION OF TSTMS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG. BY AFTN...MDLS GENERALLY SMLR
WITH PREV RUNS IN SPREADING DRIER AIR IN NVA FROM WEST TO EAST. BOTH
NGM AND ETA SEEM TO KEY IN ON SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT THIS
AM OVER MN WITH SECONDARY S/W PUNCHING THROUGH. AS A RESULT...WILL
KEEP MTN OF POSS -SHRA AND -TSRA OVR NW WI THROUGH MID AFTN WITH
AREAS W BECMG CLEAR TO PT CLOUDY. BEHIND FRONT...TEMPERATURES...
WARMING ALREADY TO THE LOWER 50S. BELIEVE CURR TEMP FCST IN LINE WITH
50S TO LOWER 60S MOST LOCATIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.
.DLH...NONE.
TOMALAK
NNNN  mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT WED APR 07 1999
FORECAST IN GENERAL IS QUITE SOUND.  A LOOK AT THE RUC RUN FOR 07/12Z IS
IN LINE WITH GOING FORECAST.  HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO UPDATE CHIEFLY FOR
WINDS THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES.  CHB
BIL BE 063/035 063/038 055 52000
LVM .. 062/030 059/... ... 52002
HDN .. 066/033 067/... ... 52000
MLS .. 067/035 068/035 ... 52000
4BQ .. 062/034 065/... ... 52022
BHK .. 060/032 063/... ... 52022
SHR BE 060/034 061/036 053 52022
NNNN  mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
920 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
09Z RUC CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR TSRA ACTION THIS
AFTN. FRNTL SYSTEM TO STALL VCNTY OF ILM CWA...MAINLY JUST W AND N
OF THE FA. SOME WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE UNDER A W-NW FLOW.
12Z VCNTY SNDINGS ALSO LEANING TWRDS TSRA PSBLTYS. RATHER WEAK IF
ANY MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO ADVECT ACROSS FA THIS AFTN. THERE4 WILL
HAVE TO RELY MSTLY ON FRNTL SYSTEM TRIGGER. WILL ONLY UP POPS TO
30. LATEST SPC INDICATES ONLY GENERAL TSRA ACROSS FA.
TEMPS...AS CONVEVTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED EXPECT MIXING TO ALLOW
BREAKUP OF CURRNT OVC. 12Z SNDINGS INDICATE TEMPS NR 80...CURRNT
FCST ON THE BALL.
CWF...WILL KEEP A SW WIND ALL DAY WITH HIER SPEEDS N OF LITTLE RVR
DUE TO SLITLEY STRONGER PG FRM VCNTY OF FRNT.
.ILM...NONE.
DCH
NNNN  nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT WED APR 7 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE WILL BE TEMPS AND EARLY PCPN. SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO WESTERN MN ATTM. WV LOOP INDICATING MAIN SW EXITING FA WITH
WK LOBE BEHIND THIS FEATURE ENTERING EASTERN NODAK. VIS LOOP STILL
SHOWING LINE OF CU FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS SW TO NORTH OF FAR. WITH SFC
BOUNDARY IN AREA...SECONDARY VORT ALONG WITH VIS INDICATIONS AM HESITANT
TO COMPLETELY TAKE OUT MENTION OF AM -SHRA. TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING ON IR
LOOP AND KMVX-88D NOT INDICATING ANY RETURNS WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLD
-SHRA TIL NOON.  OTWS RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE ABIT OF DRYING BEHIND
WAVE REFLECTED BY VIS LOOP SO WILL GO MOSUNNY. TEMPS RUNNING AHEAD OF
COOLER MOS GUIDANCE VS FAN TEMPS. THIS HANDLED WELL BY ONGOING FCST SO
NO MAJOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AIRMASS BECOMES FAIRLY ADIABATIC WITH
UNIDERECTIONAL FLOW BEHIND TROF PASSAGE HOWEVER FLOW NOT REAL STRONG
FROM 12Z UA ANALYSIS SO 10 TO 20 MPH SHOULD BE OK.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
NNNN  nd
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1000 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
DISC:  14Z ANALYSIS SHOWS WK FRNTL BOUNDARY ACRS THE MIDLANDS WITH WK HI
PRES TO THE W AND E.
NO SATELLITE DATA ON GARP THIS MORNING...SO HAVING TO GO OUT TO THE
INTERNET TO FIND PICTURES. 88D SHOWED A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ACRS THE SRN
PTN OF THE STATE EARLIER...BUT HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED.
MORNING RUC SHOWING WK FRONTL BOUNDARY TO MOV SLOWLY EWD THRU THE
DAY...BUT ALMOST NEARLY STATIONARY BEFORE IT NEALRY WASHES OUT. 00Z AND
09Z RUC SHOW BEST INSTABILITY...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE ACRS THE SRN AND
ERN PTNS OF THE STATE DURING THE AFT. SO WL CONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AFT WITH PC SKIES. THINK CURRENT MAX TEMPS FOR AFT SHOULD BE ON
TARGET.
THANKS FOR INPUT CHS...ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS SEND AWAY!
.CAE...NONE
LCV
NNNN  sc
SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CDT WED APR 7 1999
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND STREAMED SOUTH OF DEL RIO
TO JUST EAST OF BRACKETTVILLE.  THIS IN AREA OF THETA-E AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE WITH LI-S AROUND -5 AND SOUNDING LI-S OF -10 AND CAPES
NEAR 3900 J/KG.  EXPECT THESE WILL DIE OUT SHORTLY AS CIN INCREASING
AND Q-VECTORS DIVERGE ACCORDING TO 12Z RUC AND WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF CWA FORECAST.  LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUMPED ON THE LOW
LEVEL JET INTO AND ACROSS THE EWX CWA AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD.  THUS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING DRIZZLE AND FOG FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  EXPECT ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW FORECAST HIGHS TO BE REACHED AND CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS LOOK TO KEEP LOWS AT FORECASTED VALUES AS WELL.
ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO REMOVE THIS MORNING ITEMS AND TO REWORD SOME
ZONES.  SYN.04/MESO.10.
PRELIMS
AUS EE 082/068 080/062 085 111
SAT EE 082/069 081/063 085 111
DRT EB 086/069 086/064 088 11-
.SAT...NONE.
NNNN  tx
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
940 AM CDT WED APR 7 1999
DISCUSSION...12Z RUC DATA ILLUSTRATES THE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCU/CU
FIELD ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING LOCATED AT THE 925MB LEVEL.
PROGNOSIS DEPICTS A CLRG TREND THIS AFTN AS DEEP SLY FLOW EXISTS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80S OVR THE ERN FA AND TO NEAR
90 ACROSS THE WEST.  THE TROPICAL AIRMASS WL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE FCST CYCLE AS THE SLOW MOVING UPR VORTEX OVER THE LOS
ANGELES CALIFORNIA AREA LIFTS NEGATIVELY OVR THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
CNTRL/NCNTRL PLAINS ON THU..MAINLY OVER THE NE/KS/MO/IA AREA.  SFC
FLOW WILL INCREASE AS GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE
TROF AXIS.  AM NOT EXPECTING ANY ADVISORIES...LAND OR SEA..THROUGH
THE FCST PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE LAND/SEA THERMAL CONTRAST..EXPECT SEABREEZE BOUNDARY TO
BECOME A MORE DOMINANT FCSTG ELEMENT AS WE TRANSITION TOWARD OUR
TROPICAL/SUMMER-LIKE WX PATTERN UNDER THE BUILDING SUBTROP RIDGE.
WL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TO REMOVE MORNING
ITEMS.  CLOUD STREETS ON VIS IMAGES OVER THE WRN GULF AND XTRM ERN
FA..WHERE CLRG IS OCCURRING..SUGGESTS AN INCRG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
THEREFORE..WL KEEP THE WIND FCST IN PLACE..AS WELL AS THE BUILDING
SEAS FCST THIS AFTN.
BML.76
.CRP...NONE.
NNNN  tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1030 AM EDT WED APR 7 1999
APPEARS FNT HAS MOVED THROUGH FCST AREA AS WNDS IN ERN PART OF CWA
ARE NOW W/NWLY AND SFC DEW POINTS AT LYH AND HLX HAVE DROPPED. SAT
PICS AND SFC OBS SHOW LOW CLDS HAVE DISSIPATED AND MOVED E OUT OF
THE FA WITH DAN REPORTING ONLY CI AT 14Z. RUC SHOW THE VORT ACRS
CNTRL KY SHUD BE APPROACHING CWA BY 00Z SO EXPECT SOME CI BY THEN.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CURRENT TEMP FCST. WNDS JUST OFF THE SFC
WERE 25-35 KTS SO WL BUMP UP WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
AMS
NNNN  va