AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
128 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADE WITH SOME LIFT AND TROUGHING                
ALONG THE EAST COAST...SURFACE TROUGHING COUPLES WITH DIURNAL THERMAL           
TROUGHING TO SHARPEN TROUGH AXIS FROM SE GA TO NEAR TLH.  15Z RUC               
AND 12Z AVN MODELS DEVELOP LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL GA OVERNIGHT...ETA              
BUILDS IT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCE OR BETTER            
OF RAIN FOR BOTH FL AND GA CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AMOUNTS             
FROM QUARTER TO HALF INCH WIDESPREAD...WITH HEAVY RAIN UNDER A FEW              
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN END OF FL CWA...FOCUS              
NEAR A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO PALATKA TO OCALA.                              
ETA AND NGM ARE NOW INDICATING LOW WIND SPEEDS FOR TOMORROW...AND               
IT MATCHES WELL WITH SUBSIDENCE ROTATING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC.               
IF THIS ALL MATCHES UP MID DAY TOMORROW WE WILL BAKE...UPPER 90S.               
GIVEN CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TODAYS AM TEMPS OF 80 ALONG THE            
COAST...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR TOMORROW.                           
FRIDAY...ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN MID 90S IN COASTAL SECTIONS            
BUT VERY HOT INTERIOR...UPPER 90S. POPS ON FRIDAY BELOW                         
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.                                                         
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS LIGHTER THAN PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...           
AND MODELS CONVERGING TO THAT SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW AS WELL.                    
WIND BECOMING 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER               
TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PACKAGE.            
SORRY ABOUT THE NUMBERS...                                                      
AMG 75/97/73/95 3432                                                            
SSI 75/95/74/93 5333                                                            
JAX 75/98/75/95 6433                                                            
GNV 74/95/73/94 4533 13                                                         
WELSH                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 221720  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1035 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/H20 VAPOR LOOPS SHOWED LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED            
OVER WRN TN VALLEY W/ REMNANTS OF CAROLINAS MVC DROPPING SWD OFF SC             
COAST. 14Z LAPS/LAMP SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED NE-SW ORIENTED TROUGH              
AXIS FROM E CAROLINA COAST INTO EXT SE GA. HIEST DEWPOINTS (75-80               
DEG)/MOST UNSTABLE AIR (LI/S -5 TO -7) POOLED ALONG/E OF THIS                   
FEATURE...AS WELL AS OVER OFFSHORE WTRS BTWN CDR KEY AND TPA. AREA              
VAD WIND PROFILES AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATED 10-15 KT N-NWLY             
OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...TYPICAL OF A TYPE 9 REGIME WHERE THE             
PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZES REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST. 12Z TLH              
RAOB PWAT A HALF-INCH WETTER THAN 24 HRS AGO (1.81 INCHES). MODIFIED            
SOUNDING FOR MAX T/TD OF 96/72 YIELDED 5000+ J/KG CAPE...-9 LI...K              
30 AND TOTALS 44.                                                               
MODEL RUNS STILL ADVERTISING SLOW WWD RETROGRESSION OF UPPER HIGH               
INTO SCNTRL PLAINS NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS...WHICH WOULD IMPROVE CHANCES              
OF WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING SWD INTO OUR CWA FROM N/NE. AVN STILL                 
BULLISH ON POPS FOR OUR CWA TODAY AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER             
S GA AND HIGH MODEL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ETA PROGGED SIMILAR...LESS           
AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE RAISE PWAT VALUES            
TO JUST ABOVE TWO INCHES...WITH LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO A               
TROPICALLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE. 00Z MM5-DOF RUN SHOWED MAIN                 
CONVERGENCE/PCPN ALONG E-W AXIS FROM SE AL TO SE GA W/ 0.5-1.0 INCH             
AMTS OVER SE GA AND GENERAL 0.25-0.50 INCH AMTS ELSEWHERE. BASED ON             
THE AVAILABLE MODEL DATA...WILL RAISE POPS FOR ERN FL PH TO 40                  
PCT...CONSISTENT W/ SE AL ZONES...AND LEAVE SW GA/FL BIG BEND AT 50             
PCT FOR THIS AFTN.                                                              
W/ CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW...COASTAL LOCALES WILL SEE AFTN READINGS             
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY W/ LOWER 90S. INLAND AREAS CAN EXPECT MOSTLY               
MIDDLE 90S. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 50 PERCENT WILL PRODUCE                  
HEAT INDICIES FROM 100 TO 105 DEG...ESPECIALLY FOR S GA/FL BIG BEND             
ZONE GROUPINGS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE.                                        
MARINE: NO CHANGES/HIGHLIGHTS ON 1030 AM ISSUANCE.                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 221439 COR  fl                                  

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
UPPER HIGH IS RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SURFACE            
TROUGH BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS ERODING THE                     
SUBSIDENCE WHICH HELPED SUPPRESS CONVECTION YESTERDAY. IN                       
ADDITION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND NUMEROUS            
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WARRANT GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS              
AFTERNOON. BIG QUESTION THIS MORNING IS WHETHER EAST COAST BREEZE               
WILL FORM TODAY...AND IF SO WHERE. MODELS AGREE IN BACKING THE                  
SURFACE TROUGH WEST INTO THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN GULF TODAY...                
PRODUCING MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FA. THIS REGIME IS NOT            
CONDUCIVE FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND                
EXPECT LATE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE CAPE. WITH AN ACTIVE AND                   
PROGRESSIVE WEST COAST BREEZE...A COLLISION MAY OCCUR LATE THIS                 
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL                        
SECTIONS...ENHANCING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.                      
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES PLANNED.                                       
MARINE...CURRENT FCST OF NIL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT N OF COCOA LOOKS            
REASONABLE CONSIDERING TIGHTENED PRES GRAD DEPICTED IN RUC/MESO-ETA.            
MINIMAL CHGS TO FCST.                                                           
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
KELLY/BLOTTMAN                                                                  
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 221354  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1200 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA                
WITH THE 500 MB HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE                  
TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM THE CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITH                  
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE ALONG WITH                     
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION...WILL KEEP CHANCE             
POPS ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. DID NOT CHANGE POPS FROM                  
MORNING FORECAST. 03Z MESO ETA AND 12Z RUC DID SHOW A VORT MAX                  
DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH EXTREME WESTERN GA INTO EASTERN ALABAMA                  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO FORM EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON ACROSS N GA AND S TN AND DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST             
THROUGH THE STATE. WITH A MIN IN PLACE ACROSS E. GA...WOULD EXPECT              
LESS ACTIVITY THERE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER POPS ACROSS             
AHN AREA. AREA SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z DO SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE WITH 2245              
J/KG ON THE FFC SOUNDING MODIFIED TO 91F. WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT               
HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP WATER AT 1.85. ALSO WIND             
DAMAGE POSSIBLE LIKE YESTERDAY. TEMPS RUNNING ON TRACK TODAY AND DID            
NOT CHANGE...BUT DID ADD "HEAT INDICES AROUND 105" IN MCN ZONE THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.ATL...NONE                                                                     
AP                                                                              
 ga                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1035 PM EST THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
CONVECTION THIS EVE WILL NOT QUIT. STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY SE WI TO            
SW OH STILL APPARENT PER 02Z LAPS. 21Z/00Z RUC MODEL RUNS BOTH                  
ADVERTISING INCREASING MOISTURE CONV ALNG THIS FTR ACRS NW IN LTR               
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LG THETA E RIDGE JUST W AND S OF FA AND BACKING              
LOW LVL FLOW AHD OF PLAINS SW OVERNIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED CONV INTO            
DIFFUSE BNDRY FEEL SMALL CHANCE POP IN ORDER. KIWX RADAR LOOP DOES              
SHOW RENEWED ACTIVITY DVLPG ALNG A GYY TO MZZ LINE AND LIKELY AN                
INDICATION OF THIS OCCURRING ALREADY. OTHERWISE WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS              
XPC TEMPS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER THEN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE                    
ADJUSTED LOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER.                                                  
.IWX...HEAT ADVISORY CONTS FOR NRN IN THROUGH FRI                               
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 222250  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
305 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
06Z SFC AND MSAS/LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATE PESKY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING         
MORE DIFFUSE BUT CONTINUING TO HOLD ACRS CENTRAL IA TO WI/IL BORDER.            
THIS FEATURE BEING SOMEWHAT HELD AT BAY BY WEAK SFC RIDGE TO THE NORTH          
ACRS WI AND PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
CONTINUES AROUND THE FRONT AS 75+ DPTS POOL ALONG AND SOUTH OF FEATURE          
ACRS CENTRAL IA. DPTS DO DROP OFF SOMEWHAT FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST              
OF REGION ACRS MO...KS AND SOUTHERN NE.                                         
THE QUESTION OF CONTINUING HEAT NOT AN ISSUE...BUT THE QUESTION OF              
PRECIP CHANCES NEAR BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON          
FRIDAY IS.                                                                      
THROUGH FCST PERIOD...SHORT RANGE MODELS SIMILAR IN EVENTUALLY RETRO-           
GRADING UPPER RIDGE CENTER TO GRT BASIN BY 00Z SAT AS WESTERLIES REMAIN         
ACRS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PROCESS DOES              
INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACRS OVER EAST IA AND WESTERN GRT LKS BY           
END OF PERIOD AS WELL. W/V LOOP INDICATES WEAK VORT RIPPLING AROUND             
WEST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVER OK AND KS. NGM/ETA HAVE SO SO HANDLE ON           
THIS FEATURE WITH RUC A BIT BETTER. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES...            
BUT BRING WEAK VORT ACRS IA THIS AFTERNOON. AS WEST END OF BOUNDARY             
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 00Z FRI...EAST END SHOULD MOVE LITTLE AS              
WEAK SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACRS SOUTHERN GRT LKS. AS INSTABILITY           
BUILDS ONCE AGAIN ADJACENT TO BOUNDARY WITH 3K-4K+ J/KG CAPES ALONG             
AND SOUTH OF IT...WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED. H7 CAP            
WILL BE MARGINAL...AND CONTINUING WEST-SOUTHWEST H85 FLOW WILL INDUCE           
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THTA-E ADVECTION ACRS                 
NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHERN WI AND INTO FAR NORTHERN IL BY THIS EVENING.            
NICE H85 THTA-E GRADIENT SETS UP ACRS SE MN...SW WI AND NORTH CENTRAL           
AND NORTHEAST IL AS WELL...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST 15-20 KT H85 FLOW                
AND MOISTURE FLUX SLICING ACRS IT. ALL THIS POINTS TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF         
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACRS FAR NORTHERN TIER OF DVN          
CWA AND WILL UP ONGOING LOW POPS TO 30 PERCENT. WILL KEEP ONGOING SLIGHT        
CHANCE ACRS CENTRAL CWA...BUT WILL DROP POPS ACRS THE SOUTH AS FEEL ANY         
ACTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHEAST IA AND          
WEST CENTRAL IL.                                                                
MAY INTRODUCE SOME POPS ON FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR VORT DROPPING SOUTHEAST           
IN DEVELOPING NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ACRS MN AND WI...ALTHOUGH NGM MAY BE         
TOO FAR SOUTH AND PRECIP PESSIMISTIC AS TRAILING VORT LOBE CLIPS EAST           
IA AND NORTHERN IL. IF POPS ARE INTRODUCED...IT WILL BE ONLY FOR                
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF DVN CWA.                                                 
AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GO TO SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND A              
LITTLE WARMER IN THE NORTH. THIS IN LINE WITH THE WARMER AND MORE               
ACCURATE FWC GUIDANCE WHICH DID WELL ON WEDNESDAY. DPTS ACRS SOUTHERN           
CWA MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH THOUGH AS SFC BOUNDARY AND ITS POOLING             
EFFECT LIFT NORTH SOMEWHAT. TRAJECTORIES ALSO ADVECT IN LOWER DPTS FROM         
SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK SOURCE REGION. WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY           
ONGOING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA...ALTHOUGH FAR NORTHERN TIER/DBQ/         
MAY NOT QUITE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                          
COORDINATED WITH ARX...LSX...THANX.                                             
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONES 040-042>051-054>                    
063-068>076-078>087-089>098-099.                                                
IL...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ZONES 001-002>007>009>                    
015-018-024>026>034>035.                                                        
HLADIK                                                                          
 ia                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.                  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE CONUS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS            
SHOWS PERSISTANT STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.          
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF FRONT IN LOW 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WEAK SFC TROF            
ALSO LOCATED IN CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED UP IN             
THIS REGION...WITH A WATCH BOX OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS.                            
CURRENTLY A QUIET NIGHT OVER THE U.P.  SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS              
MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 23Z...OTHERWISE NO PRECIP            
TO SPEAK OF. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.                       
HOWEVER...DIURNAL TREND...AND LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD PREVENT ANY            
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING             
IN WESTERN ZONES. AT 00Z CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP IN EASTERN DAKOTAS            
ALONG THETA E RIDGE AXIS. NO REASON THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD              
NOT PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MN...WHERE CAPES SURPASS 4000                      
J/KG...AND ETA INDICATES 250MB DIVERGENCE TO AID LIFT. IR IMAGERY               
ALSO SHOWS SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT AS                       
SUCCESSFULLY...IN SOUTHERN WI ALONG ANOTHER THETA E RIDGE. MESOETA              
AND RUC PUSH THETA E RIDGE EASTWARD...TO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z. MESOETA            
HINTS AT MCS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z IN NW WI...JUST WEST OF             
CWA. RUC AND MESOETA ALSO SHOW POSITIVE SI'S OVER CWA...WITH                    
NEGATIVE VALUES GETTING INTO WESTERN CWA NEAR 12Z. THE POSITIVE SI              
VALUES MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH AREAS THAT ARE CONVECTION-FREE FROM            
THE U.P. TO WESTERN MN AND TO SOUTHERN WI. BY 12Z...-2 SI LINE IS               
JUST WEST OF MQT. CAPES APPROACH 3000 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES                  
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. I THINK WE WILL SEE THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN              
EASTERN DAKOTAS ADVANCE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME                
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERNMOST...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL                    
COUNTIES...TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS LOOK OK. WILL FRESHEN WORDING...AND            
ADJUST WINDS.                                                                   
MQT...NONE.                                                                     
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 230126  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
FCST CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN ARE TEMPS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ARRIVING           
FROM WEST AND DEVELOPING ON LK BREEZE BOUNDARIES.                               
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO S SASKATCHEWAN.             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN ND AIDING TSRA IN E ND/N MN. AT THE SFC...                 
REMNANTS OF STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS N IA AND S WI. DWPTS                
ACROSS FA HAVE RISEN TO 65 TO 72F WITH HIGHEST READINGS NEAR LK                 
MICHIGAN.                                                                       
RADAR TRENDS AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE TSRA MOVING E ACROSS NCNTRL            
MN IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM LOW-LEVEL CONV              
REGION AND BEST INSTABILITY. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING               
FARTHER WEST IN E ND/FAR NW MN WHERE BEST PARAMETERS PERSIST. 12Z               
RUC SHOWS SLOW PROGRESS EAST OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHORTWAVE THIS                
AFTN. THETA-E RIDGE WHERE TSRA OCCURRING ALSO REMAINS W OF FA. SO               
EXPECTATION IS THAT TSRA IN NCNTRL MN WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING            
UPPER MI. ONLY AFFECT WILL BE CI BLOWOFF OVERSPREADING FA.                      
NEXT CONCERN IS POSSIBLE TSRA DEVELOPMENT E FA FROM INTERACTION OF              
LK BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTN. 03Z ETA HAS           
BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUN ON HIGH CAPES PROGGED OVER E FA. EVEN              
SO...CAPES OF 1000-2000J/KG ARE INDICATED BY LATE AFTN ALONG LK                 
MICHIGAN COUNTIES. 12Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS FORMIDABLE CAP WHILE APX              
SOUNDING SHOWS CAP WILL BE BROKEN WHEN TEMPS REACH UPPER 80S WITH               
DWPTS LOW 70S. MODIFIED SOUNDING YIELDS CAPE OF 3600J/KG. HOWEVER...            
AIRMASS ALOFT IS VERY DRY WITH DWPT DEPRESSIONS GENERALLY 15-20C                
ABOVE 850MB...K INDEX BELOW 10. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL CONV THAT WILL                
DEVELOP AS LAKE BREEZES MOVE INLAND...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT DRY FCST            
GIVEN DRY AIR ALOFT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON CU DEVELOPMENT THAT            
OCCURS ALONG LK BREEZES THOUGH.                                                 
GOING FCST HAS HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 90. TEMP TRENDS THIS MORNING              
AND LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST FCST ON TRACK. HOWEVER...INCREASING            
CI WILL LIMIT SUNSHINE A BIT...ESPECIALLY W. WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR              
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON UPDATE.                                                 
MQT...NONE.                                                                     
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 221530  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1102 AM EDT TUE JUL 20 1999                                                     
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MORNING FOG LIFTING AND                     
DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... DUE TO LATE MORNING               
MIXING OF DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. APX MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED 850 DEWPTS          
AROUND 4C. LATEST RUC SHOWING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING          
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY. THE MAIN          
AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON... WILL BE THE CHANCE OF LAKE BREEZE             
DEVELOPMENT AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST UPPER AND                 
THE STRAITS AREA.                                                               
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS TODAY                
AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER             
60S... DELTA T'S WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. 12Z          
RUC SHOWING 925 MB WINDS OVER EAST UPPER TO BE WEST AROUND 15 KNOTS             
WHICH IS A WEAK ENOUGH FLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM. HOWEVER IT WILL          
ALSO ADD TO WIND CONVERGENCE OVER EAST UPPER THIS AFTERNOON. 850 DEW            
PTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10C THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST             
UPPER WITH SOME WEAK 850-700 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NOTED BY 18Z.                  
THEREFORE WILL LEAVE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR EAST UPPER          
AND STRAITS AREA.                                                               
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE...HOWEVER WILL DROP MENTION              
OF THUNDER FROM THE SOUTHEAST ZONES AS DRIEST 850 DEW PTS AND                   
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT ANY                  
CONVECTION.                                                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 221417  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
945 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
FORECAST SCENARIO FROM THIS MORNING SEEMS TO BE GENERALLY ON TRACK              
WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES. MCS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO            
MN BUT LEAVING A BOUNDARY SOUTH OF DTL INTO NE SD. THINK THIS AREA              
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NW CWA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z RUC            
CONTINUES WITH A TREND OF SOME UPPER DIV ACROSS ACROSS N PART OF CWA            
AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MN. LIMITING                 
FACTOR WILL BE WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOEM AREAS MAY BE                         
CAPPED..INITIALLY.. AS WELL. OTHER CONCERN..IS POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED          
CONVECTION SOUTH CENTRAL IN AREA OF WEAKER CAP NEAR OLD BOUNDARY TO             
OUR SOUTH. WILL ADD A SMALL POP HERE.                                           
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
JPR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 220849  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
230 PM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST CHALLENGE...              
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE U.S. AND          
TROFING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. WV PICS SHOW MONSOON                  
CONTINUES TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO         
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A TROF EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL            
SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG ZONE           
OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM NEAR VTN TO SNY.                         
MOST RECENT TWO RUNS OF RUC DEVELOPED CONVECTION IN GENERAL AREA OF             
CURRENT ACTIVITY...ETA ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTION BUT NOT UNTIL 00Z              
ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR WEST. NGM WAS FAR TOO              
PROGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPED CONVECTION EAST OF CWFA AND WILL BE                   
DISREGARDED. OVERALL...ETA AND AVN HAVE BEST HANDLE AND WILL BE USED.           
CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ALONG ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL                      
MOISTURE/THETA E CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF TROF OVER WESTERN PART OF           
CWFA. CAPES AHEAD OF TROF RANGE FROM 3K TO 5K J/KG WITH CAP COMPLETELY          
ERODED. SHEAR REMAINS NONEXISTANT SO PULSE TYPE STORMS WITH PRIMARY             
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED. WEAKNESS IN FLOW SHOWS         
AT H5 ON BOTH ETA/AVN BUT WILL NOT LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL               
MOTION TO SUSTAIN STORMS ENTIRELY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINCE SHEAR IS WEAK        
...STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS                
EVENING.                                                                        
WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE            
RIDGE REBOUNDING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...CAP...WEAK SHEAR...AND LACK          
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR UPPER LEVEL KICKER SHOULD INHIBIT                   
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. YET ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH H85 TEMPS VERY               
SIMILAR TO TODAY.                                                               
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PROMISE MORE OF THE SAME AS THE RIDGE IS              
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHARPENING OF TROF.         
LEE SURFACE TROF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITH INCRESING WINDS OVER THE           
CWFA. DEEPER MIXING SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 100         
OR BETTER IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWFA.                                            
IN THE EXTENDED...ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EJECT CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC         
TROF OVER THE RIDGE SUNDAY/MONDAY AND PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS.          
AS OF NOW...LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...STALL AND UNDERGO         
FRONTOLYSIS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF CWFA. WILL PUSH MENTION OF THUNDER           
BACK TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BOTH                
SATURDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                           
.LBF...NONE                                                                     
DJB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KOAX 221925  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
915 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY STILL STRETCHING ACROSS ERN LI SOUND AND JUST OFF            
 ERN LI ATTM. WL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO DETERMINE IF ERN ZONES NEED             
MENTION.                                                                        
LOOKING UPSTREAM...VERY ISOLATED TSRA SEEN. LATEST RUC SHOWS YET                
ANOTHER JET STREAK SET TO MOVE SE FROM CANADA LATER TONIGHT. THIS               
IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MAY NEED TO KEEP A 30 POP DUE TO JET            
AND INSTABILITY. ENHANCED CLOUDS ASSOC WITH THE JET WILL MOVE ACROSS            
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENTLY SOME LOW CLOUDS                
HERE AND THERE. WL MENTION VARIABLY CLOUDY FOR THE OVERNIGHT SINCE              
WE COULD SEE SOME CLR SKIES EARLY. WL ALSO MENTION PATCHY FOG.                  
TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS MINIMAL AND LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM                          
EARLIER RAINS COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG.                                         
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FCST.                                                   
.NYC/OKX...NONE.                                                                
WICHROWSKI                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 221922   ny                                     

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
1000 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
H5 SHRT WV MOVG S OF THE FCST AREA THIS MRNG...WITH NRN EDGE OF                 
ASSOCD PCPN SCRAPING THE RGN.                                                   
SFC WRMFNT WL STAY WELL TO OUR S THIS AFTN AND TNGT. RUC INDICATES              
ANOTHER SHRT WV MOVG BY THE RGN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. THIS WL            
BE ENUF TO TOUCH OFF SCT CNVCTN. TIL THEN HWVR DO NOT SEE MUCH IN               
THE WAY OF PCPN FOR THE NXT FEW HOURS.                                          
SO IN THE UPDTD FCSTS WL KNOCK DOWN THE POPS FM "LKLY' TO "CHC". WL             
ALSO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CLD CVR AND GO WITH VRBL                 
CLDNS. THIS ALSO MEANS BUMPING UP THE HI TMPS IN MANY OF THE ZNS.               
.NYC/OKX...NONE.                                                                
EY                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBGM 221355  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
945 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
AREAS OF FOG TRYING TO LIFT OUT THIS AM. HWVR CONTD VSBYS TO 1 MI OR            
LESS CONT. SHUD BE GONE SHORTLY. WNDS OVR THE WTRS THIS AM LGT AND              
FRM THE S OR SW. TEMPS ALRDY RCHG INTO THE LWR TO MID 80S THIS AM               
AND AS F CLRS TEMPS WL JUMP QUICKLY.                                            
SWV IN WV THIS AM DROPG TWRD FA. MOD SNDG NOT AS UNSTBL AS YSTRDY.              
HWVR MOD CAPES ARE ARND 4000 AND ACTVTY SHUD BE ENHNCD AS SWV OVR WV            
THIS AM MVS THRU. THAT IS XPCTD ARND MAX HTG TM. WK WND SHIFT EVIDNT            
ON SFC ANAL PROGGD BY BOTH RUC AND MASS TO CONT OVR CNTRL NC AND                
PSBLY DRIFT SLOWLY E THRU THE AFTN HRS. CUD GET INTERESTING THIS                
AFTN. MA NEED TO UP POPS. DCNT AMT OF CLDS TDY SHUD KP TEMPS DWN                
INTO THE MID 90S THIS AFTN. HV CNSDRD HT ADV AND XPCT WE WL GET NR              
CRITERIA. HWVR WL NOT ISSUE AN ADV THIS AFTN BUT WL HILITE IN ZONES.            
CRRNT RUC SHWG LOBE OF STG INCRSG THETA E MVG THRU AT MAX HTG AND               
VORT LOBE MVG OUT OF AREA AFT 21Z. XPCT ACTVTY TO DIE DWN THIS EVE              
AS SWV MVS OUT OF AREA AND HTG DSSPRS.                                          
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 221340  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
940 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
DISC: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE CWA WITH PW               
WATERS AT A JUST ABOVE 2.0 INCHES.  PLAN VIEW OF WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE       
DOES SHOW AN INVERTED TROF AT 3 K FT ALONG THE COASTAL AREA OF OUR              
CWA. ANOTHER TROUGH ALBEIT WEAK IS SEEN RUNNING MORE EAST-WEST TO               
NORTH OF THE FORECAST. THE 09Z RUC SHOWS A WEAK SHOULD MOVING ACROSS            
THE AREA AROUND NOON TODAY AND THIS SHOULD OFFER SOME WEAK LIFT.  SO            
WITH LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT SEA BREEZE AND ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW                  
BOUNDARIES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR TODAYS CONVECTION.                               
CWF...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS EXPECT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO              
THE MORNING FORECAST.                                                           
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
HAWKINS                                                                         
 nc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
941 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM                
SERN WI TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A SHORTWAVE SHOWN ON THE 00Z               
RUC WAS OVR IN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES              
FOCUSING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.                                                    
THE 00Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN W OF THE FA                
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TSRA GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  WL               
KEEP POPS IN FOR MUCH OF AREA OVERNIGHT BUT WL BREAK OUT GROUPS TO              
ELIMINATE PRECIP FROM AREAS NOT GETTING RAIN.                                   
ONLY OTHER CHANGE WL BE TO THE WINDS.                                           
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THAN NORMAL DUE TO UPDATES                 
ALREADY ISSUED.                                                                 
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
WILKINSON                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCLE 230041  oh                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BERMUDA HIGH              
HAS PINCHED OFF INTO A CLOSED HIGH OVER LA/ERN TX THIS MORNING WITH             
WEAK RIDGING POKING NORTH INTO ERN OK/WRN AR.  DUE TO THIS...WILL               
UPDATE FCST ONLY TO TWEAK WINDS FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN SOME OF              
THE MORE ERN ZNS.                                                               
OTHERWISE...12Z RUC SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER                
TODAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS WARMING FROM AROUND -6/-7C THIS MORNING TO              
-4/-5C THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW K-INDICES NEAR            
30...WHICH IS WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ALL WEEK.  THEREFORE...CONVECTIVE            
OUTLOOK SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH JUST A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER             
HIGHEST TERRAIN DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.                             
22                                                                              
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 220828  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
850 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
EVENING RAOBS FROM AROUND THE AREA SHOW CAPES OF 3000 TO 3500.                  
DESPITE SUCH HIGH CAPES HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DIED              
RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. APPARENTLY THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT THE 21Z RUC             
SHOWS MOVING SOUTH OVER WRN CAROLINAS ATTM IS NOT PROVIDING                     
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO RAISE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR TO THE LFC. VERY              
DRY MID/UPR LEVELS CAN BE SEEN ON THE WV IMAGERY MOVING SOUTH AND               
WILL EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE               
AREA OVERNIGHT...CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS                    
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NVA IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE SHOULD KEEP            
WEATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT. WILL DROP POPS...BUT LEAVE TEMPS AS                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 221939  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
145 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
E AND S PORTIONS OF AREA APPROACHING HEAT ADVSIORY CRITERIA...                  
BUT DEW POINTS MAY MIX OUT A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL                     
HANDLE WITH HEAT INDEX NOWCAST. WEAK IMPULSE TO MOVE CROSS NC                   
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SC THIS EVENING. RUC SHOWS BEST DYNAMICS                
BETWEEN I-77 AND I-95. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE E OF CWA. RADAR                  
SHOWS CONVECTION IN VA MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL NC...WITH MORE                     
DEVELOPING IN NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS. CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF                   
LATE TONIGHT AS IMPULSE MOVES S. AREA BETWEEN IMPULSES FRI AND                  
FRI NIGHT...BUT STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE. PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TO                 
APPROACH SAT...ALTHOUGH NGM WEAKENS FIRST SYSTEM AS IT REACHES                  
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARM FRI WITH HEAT ADVISORY                
CRITERIA AGAIN APPROACHED S AND E. TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT SAT                  
WITH SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AS RIDGE RETROGRADES...AND                      
POSSIBLY CI FROM CONVECTION IN OH VALLEY.                                       
AVL 68/90/68/89 2113                                                            
CLT 74/96/74/93 3112                                                            
GSP 72/95/73/93 2112                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 221410  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
959 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
DISC:  13Z ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES OVR THE CTNRL GULF CST AREA AND A WK          
TROF ALNG THE ERN PTN OF THE STATE.                                             
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLDS MAINLY ACRS THE SWRN PTN OF THE STATE WITH A          
NICE AREA OF MS/SU CONDITIONS OVR NC AND N/NE SC. OBS CONT TO SHOW HZ           
FOR MOST AREAS. 00Z ETA AND MORNING RUC...ALTHOUGH TIMING A BIT                 
DIFFERENT SHOW A WK S/W TO MOVE ARND UPR HI AND INTO THE STATE THIS AFT.        
THIS COMBINED WITH SOME WK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD HELP TOUCH OFF A FEW         
SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS AFT. TEMPS GETTING OFF TO A GOOD START THIS MORNING        
WITH MINS HIGHER THAN WED. TDS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...SO         
WL CONT WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR AFT. LOOKING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES               
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.                                                    
.CAE...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.          
       HEAT ADVISORY TODAY GAZ040-063>065-077.                                  
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 221359  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
850 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
RUC SHOWS WEAK IMPULSE DROPPING S THROUGH CWA BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z.               
BEST DYNAMICS I-77 CORRIDOR. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING TO TAKE                 
PLACE TODYA...BUT LEVELS BELOW 700 MB TO REMAIN MOIST. MID LEVEL                
TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM...GREATER THAN 10 C AT 700 MB...YET NO                 
CAP APPARENT IN AREA SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES NOT                    
MUCH WARMER. CAPES AROUND 3700 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IF MID 90S               
REACHED AT SURFACE. WILL CONSIDER RAISING POPS TO 40 OR EVEN 50                 
PERCENT. AREA OFF TO A WARM START WITH GSP/CLT 1 DEGREE ABOVE                   
WARM FWC GUIDANCE AT 12Z AND AVL AT GUIDANCE. CURRENT ZONES                     
ALLOW FOR UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMING AT GSP/CLT TODAY AND WILL LEAVE               
AS IS. WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES NC FOOTHILLS ONE CATEGORY TO                     
ACCOUNT FOR WARMING ABOVE YESTERDAY'S LOW 90S READINGS. WILL PUT                
GREATER RANGE NC MOUNTAINS TO ALLOW FOR A STRAY 90 OR TWO.                      
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
815 PM MDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
SURFACE TROF HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL                       
COUNTIES....WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF CWA. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING            
SHOWS THAT MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH DRY AIR FROM 850MB TO                
500MB. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING                   
THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING...AND IS DEPICTED WELL BY 21Z RUC. ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST FEW HOURS.             
HOWEVER WITH THE DRY AIR...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW. WILL                 
UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. REST OF THE            
FORECAST IN GOOD  SHAPE.                                                        
.UNR...NONE                                                                     
KRC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 230143  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1010 AM CDT THU JULY 22 1999                                                    
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ND CONVECTION MOVING SE ACROSS THE ABR CWA            
THIS MORNING. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SFC HEATING WILL BREAK           
UP THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN BY NOON. THIS OUTFLOW          
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING N TO S ACROSS THE           
ABR CWA COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE TSRAS THIS                 
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE RUC KEEPS TEMPS AT 70H +12 OR           
HIGHER TODAY WHICH MAY BE TOUGH TO BREAK. ALSO...IT WILL BE VERY                
UNSTABLE ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN THIS AFTERNOON. SO...WILL LEAVE POPS IN         
FORECAST. WITH THE DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND            
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100...HEAT INDICES COULD RISE TO 100        
TO 110 ACROSS THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO GO WITH A HEAT ADVISORY FOR C SD FOR        
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED NE SD AND WC MN TO TAKE OUT FOG.           
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED OK.                                 
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 221459  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
124 PM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS SURFACE HIGH OVER MSY WITH                   
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUING IN EARNEST.  THE TWO MOST              
IDENTIFIABLE FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM LEX-BNA              
AND ANOTHER FROM CMI-PAH-MEM-GWO.  LATEST MSAS DATA HAS LIS IN THE              
-6 TO -8 RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.  BASICALLY THE ENTIRE             
FORECAST CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AND             
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND                  
EARLY EVENING TSRA.                                                             
MAIN CONCERN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.1 INCHES AND                   
MEAN STORM MOTION OF 310 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.  YESTERDAY A COUPLE OF             
STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN 15-20 MINUTES FROM               
LARGE DROP SIZE AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.                                      
FORECAST CONUNDRUM OF THE DAY...POPS...ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT/SAT                 
LAST CONCERN IS NGM AND AVN H5 SHORT WAVE FROM 36-42 HOURS THAT MOVES           
FROM IL-MO SEWARD.  THIS COULD INITIATE A SMALL MCS FRIDAY NIGHT                
AND INCREASE OUR POPS.  HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH MEM/PAH AND               
LOU AND HAVE DECIDED TO RECONFIGURE THE ZONES FROM THE NW TO THE SE             
TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST DISCERNIBLE SHORT WAVE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL                
DAYS. THIS COULD BE A CLASSIC NOTORIOUS NORTHWEST FLOW NIGHTTIME                
CONVECTION SCENARIO.                                                            
H7 TEMPS ARE +10 BUT STILL NOT WARM ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. NEW           
MOS GUIDANCE INCREASED TO A 20 POP FOR THE 2 DAY PERIODS AND                    
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE LESS               
THAN 12 C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY            
SCATTERED POPS IN ALL BUT THE WESTERN TIER OF CWA. NONE OF THE MAIN             
MAIN MODELS OR THE RUC HAVE BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB ON QPF.  HOWEVER              
THE MM5 HAS BEEN TARGETING THE CORRECT AREA.  WILL USE THIS FOR THE             
FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE QPF FORECAST.                                             
TORRID FWC HAS COOLED DOWN FROM ITS 100 FORECAST YESTERDAY...BUT                
STILL SEEMS BE 2-4 DEGREES TO WARM.                                             
AS FOR THE EXTENDED...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE GIST OF THE                   
FORECAST...AS HERCULEAN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH MOIST             
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS UNDERNEATH IT.                                             
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR FORECAST COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                  
BNA 075/095 075/096   10/20 30/20                                               
CSV 069/088 070/089   20/20 20/20                                               
JDG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 221430  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
927 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS FAIRLY SIMILAR WEATHER                       
SCENARIO AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.  DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO                    
MID 70S WITH MOST APPARENT TROUGH FROM CMI-MVN-JBR.  SURFACE                    
THROUGH H7 HIGH ANCHORED FROM MST-MOB WITH H5 THRU H3 HIGH                      
OVER TN.                                                                        
CAP IS FAIRLY TENUOUS...UNDERNEATH A CAPE OF 2400 J/KG...LI OF -5               
AND K INDEX OF 33.  MOST CONCERNED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF            
2.1 INCHES AND MEAN STORM MOTION OF 310 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.  WITH               
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE AROUND 90 DEGREES AND A VERY MOIST AND                   
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING TSRA BRIGADE WILL CONTINUE.                                             
LATEST RUC HAS VERY WEAK VORT MAX OVER THE PLATEAU BY 18Z WHICH MAY             
FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTION.  H7 TEMPS STILL <12 DEGREE C SO NO MID              
LEVEL CAP YET.                                                                  
CURRENT FORECAST IN ON TARGET AND PLAN TO MAKE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE            
GIST OF THE 4 AM PACKAGE.                                                       
JDG                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 221338  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
919 PM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
CUMULUS FROM AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AND                    
SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING INDICATES A CLEAR SKY ACROSS OUR CWFA.              
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS             
AGO. THE ETA AND LATEST RUC MODEL 925 MILLIBAR WIND AND RELATIVE                
HUMIDITY FIELDS INDICATE THAT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AND              
MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWFA TOWARD MORNING. WILL              
SEND UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT SKY COVER...AND WILL RAISE               
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 70 TO 75 RANGE FOR ALL EXCEPT OUR SE                    
COUNTIES.                                                                       
19                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLUB 230220  tx                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
845 PM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SERN TX THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPDATE             
ISSUE IS PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE. COVERAGE              
ON THU MORNING WAS LIMITED TO THE FOG-BELT FROM CLL-LFK-CXO-DWH-CLL.            
00Z CRP/LCH AND FSL/RUC2 SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST NOTCH AROUND 900                
MB...WHILE THE 21Z RUC AND 12Z ETA/NGM TIME-SECTIONS SHOW THE                   
TYPICAL HIGH-RH BULLSEYE AROUND 12Z FOR EARLY MORNING CLOUDS/FOG.               
THEREFORE...THE ZONE UPDATE WILL INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW               
CLOUDS ROUGHLY NORTH OF US-290 WEST OF METRO HOUSTON...THEN                     
NORTH OF I-10 IN AND EAST OF METRO HOUSTON.                                     
.HGX...NONE.                                                                    
31/40                                                                           
PREVIOUS PRELIMS...                                                             
CLL UB 073/098 073/096 073 000-                                                 
IAH UB 072/097 073/097 073 000-                                                 
GLS UB 080/093 080/093 080 0001                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 230147  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
1049 AM CDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TUTT LOW CENTERED OVER BIG BEND NATIONAL              
PARK WITH SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT NOTED.  12Z RUC SHOWS THIS                  
FEATURE BEST AT 300MB AND KEEPS IT IN SAME PLACE THROUGH DAY.                   
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PORTIONS OF CWA FROM            
YESTERDAY/S CONVECTION...THEY ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND OR WASHED              
OUT.  THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THEY ARE.                 
DROPPED MORNING WORDING AND LOW CLOUDS IN ALL EXCEPT TERRELL COUNTY             
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES ROSE TO UPPER 80S YESTERDAY IN                
SAME AREA AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE SPLIT PECOS/TERRELL              
GROUP AND WENT WITH CATEGORY LOWER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT FORECAST           
IN TERRELL.                                                                     
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER JUST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST              
BIG BEND/PRESIDIO DEVELOPING/MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THESE AREAS.  WILL           
OPT FOR PARTLY SUNNY THERE...BUT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE O.K.                
ALSO TWEAKED WIND DIRECTIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN COUNTY WARNING                
AREA.  REST OF FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.  WILL SEND UPDATED ZONES              
AND STATE SHORTLY.                                                              
AKL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSJT 221546 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
930 AM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
09 UTC RUC NICELY PICKING UP THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD               
OUT OF EASTERN ONTARIO.  THE MODEL IS FOCUSING THE STRONGEST UPPER              
DYNAMICS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH                   
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING.  RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 00/03 UTC ETA IDEA OF                
WEAKENING CAP STRENGTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA              
THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE THUS BUMPED THUNDERSTORM POPS TO 50 PERCENT               
THESE AREAS TODAY.  STRATUS DECK HANGING TOUGH IN ADIRONDACKS AND               
SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT...SHOULD NOT AFFECT ZONE-WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGES           
BUT WILL ADD MORE CLOUDS TO FORECAST NONETHELESS.  A FEW OTHER MINOR            
WORDING CHANGES BUT REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                             
ST. JEAN                                                                        
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
 vt                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
128 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADE WITH SOME LIFT AND TROUGHING                
ALONG THE EAST COAST...SURFACE TROUGHING COUPLES WITH DIURNAL THERMAL           
TROUGHING TO SHARPEN TROUGH AXIS FROM SE GA TO NEAR TLH.  15Z RUC               
AND 12Z AVN MODELS DEVELOP LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL GA OVERNIGHT...ETA              
BUILDS IT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER. LOOKS LIKE GOOD CHANCE OR BETTER            
OF RAIN FOR BOTH FL AND GA CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AMOUNTS             
FROM QUARTER TO HALF INCH WIDESPREAD...WITH HEAVY RAIN UNDER A FEW              
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN END OF FL CWA...FOCUS              
NEAR A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO PALATKA TO OCALA.                              
ETA AND NGM ARE NOW INDICATING LOW WIND SPEEDS FOR TOMORROW...AND               
IT MATCHES WELL WITH SUBSIDENCE ROTATING SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC.               
IF THIS ALL MATCHES UP MID DAY TOMORROW WE WILL BAKE...UPPER 90S.               
GIVEN CURRENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND TODAYS AM TEMPS OF 80 ALONG THE            
COAST...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE IN ORDER FOR TOMORROW.                           
FRIDAY...ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN MID 90S IN COASTAL SECTIONS            
BUT VERY HOT INTERIOR...UPPER 90S. POPS ON FRIDAY BELOW                         
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.                                                         
MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS LIGHTER THAN PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...           
AND MODELS CONVERGING TO THAT SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW AS WELL.                    
WIND BECOMING 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTER               
TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PACKAGE.            
SORRY ABOUT THE NUMBERS...                                                      
AMG 75/97/73/95 3432                                                            
SSI 75/95/74/93 5333                                                            
JAX 75/98/75/95 6433                                                            
GNV 74/95/73/94 4533 13                                                         
WELSH                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 221720  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.                  
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY...WITH                
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING WEATHER OVER THE CONUS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS            
SHOWS PERSISTANT STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MN ACROSS SOUTHERN WI.          
DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF FRONT IN LOW 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS. WEAK SFC TROF            
ALSO LOCATED IN CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED UP IN             
THIS REGION...WITH A WATCH BOX OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS.                            
CURRENTLY A QUIET NIGHT OVER THE U.P.  SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS              
MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 23Z...OTHERWISE NO PRECIP            
TO SPEAK OF. INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.                       
HOWEVER...DIURNAL TREND...AND LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD PREVENT ANY            
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING             
IN WESTERN ZONES. AT 00Z CONVECTION WAS FIRING UP IN EASTERN DAKOTAS            
ALONG THETA E RIDGE AXIS. NO REASON THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD              
NOT PERSIST AS IT MOVES INTO MN...WHERE CAPES SURPASS 4000                      
J/KG...AND ETA INDICATES 250MB DIVERGENCE TO AID LIFT. IR IMAGERY               
ALSO SHOWS SOME CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT AS                       
SUCCESSFULLY...IN SOUTHERN WI ALONG ANOTHER THETA E RIDGE. MESOETA              
AND RUC PUSH THETA E RIDGE EASTWARD...TO WESTERN CWA BY 12Z. MESOETA            
HINTS AT MCS DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z IN NW WI...JUST WEST OF             
CWA. RUC AND MESOETA ALSO SHOW POSITIVE SI'S OVER CWA...WITH                    
NEGATIVE VALUES GETTING INTO WESTERN CWA NEAR 12Z. THE POSITIVE SI              
VALUES MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH AREAS THAT ARE CONVECTION-FREE FROM            
THE U.P. TO WESTERN MN AND TO SOUTHERN WI. BY 12Z...-2 SI LINE IS               
JUST WEST OF MQT. CAPES APPROACH 3000 J/KG IN WESTERN COUNTIES                  
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. I THINK WE WILL SEE THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN              
EASTERN DAKOTAS ADVANCE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME                
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERNMOST...AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL                    
COUNTIES...TOWARD MORNING. TEMPS LOOK OK. WILL FRESHEN WORDING...AND            
ADJUST WINDS.                                                                   
MQT...NONE.                                                                     
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 230126  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
941 PM EDT THU JUL 22 1999                                                      
00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM                
SERN WI TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A SHORTWAVE SHOWN ON THE 00Z               
RUC WAS OVR IN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES              
FOCUSING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.                                                    
THE 00Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN W OF THE FA                
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TSRA GOING MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  WL               
KEEP POPS IN FOR MUCH OF AREA OVERNIGHT BUT WL BREAK OUT GROUPS TO              
ELIMINATE PRECIP FROM AREAS NOT GETTING RAIN.                                   
ONLY OTHER CHANGE WL BE TO THE WINDS.                                           
FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THAN NORMAL DUE TO UPDATES                 
ALREADY ISSUED.                                                                 
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
WILKINSON                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCLE 230041  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1110 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL UPDATE FORECAST MAINLY FOR WORDING. HEAT               
ADV STILL LOOKS GOOD AS TEMPS WILL REACH MID/UPR 90S...& INDEXES TO             
105-115. MAIN CONCERN IS CHANCE OF ANY STRONG TO PULSE SEVERE                   
STORMS. 12Z TLH SOUNDING HAS PRECIP WATER AT 2.06 INCHES...DRY AIR              
ALOFT OF 5H...LI OF -9...CAPE 4800...& CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 92. WHEN              
MODIFIED...ALL FACTORS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. RUC IS INDICATING SOME             
SURFACE & UPPER TROUGHING TO AFFECT CWA...LI TO MAX OUT AT -9 TO -7             
FROM N FL TO SRN AL-GA. SEA BREEZY SHOULD PENETRATE A BIT FARTHER               
NORTH AS SURFACE N FLOW HAS WEAKENED...& WOULD BRING CONVECTION MORE            
OVER CWA. HAZARDOUS WEA OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED...WILL ALSO UPDATE             
HEAT ADV FOR CONCISENESS & WORDING.                                             
MARINE...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING...WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TO             
MORE WEST THROUGH AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST OK.                                   
MCT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 231426  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1117 AM EST FRI JUL 23 1999                                                     
GOES CAPES AND SOUNDERS SHOWING 3 AXIS OF HIR CAPE AND ERODING CINH.            
ONE FM SRN WI WSW TO CNTRL IA...SRN IL NOSING NNE AND ALONG AND S OF            
WK BNDRY ACRS SWRN OH INTO EXTRM NERN IN. LTST RUC V17Z EVEN MORE               
UNSTABLE WITH 4K + J/KG. WL UPDATE FOR MINOR CHNGS TO BUMP TEMPS                
SLIGHTLY TO MID 90S IN AND LWR 90S MI AND 40 POP WITH SCT WORDING               
LATE AFTN.                                                                      
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
MURPHY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KIND 230838  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1035 PM EST THU JUL 22 1999                                                     
CONVECTION THIS EVE WILL NOT QUIT. STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY SE WI TO            
SW OH STILL APPARENT PER 02Z LAPS. 21Z/00Z RUC MODEL RUNS BOTH                  
ADVERTISING INCREASING MOISTURE CONV ALNG THIS FTR ACRS NW IN LTR               
TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LG THETA E RIDGE JUST W AND S OF FA AND BACKING              
LOW LVL FLOW AHD OF PLAINS SW OVERNIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED CONV INTO            
DIFFUSE BNDRY FEEL SMALL CHANCE POP IN ORDER. KIWX RADAR LOOP DOES              
SHOW RENEWED ACTIVITY DVLPG ALNG A GYY TO MZZ LINE AND LIKELY AN                
INDICATION OF THIS OCCURRING ALREADY. OTHERWISE WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS              
XPC TEMPS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT HIGHER THEN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE                    
ADJUSTED LOWS SOMEWHAT HIGHER.                                                  
.IWX...HEAT ADVISORY CONTS FOR NRN IN THROUGH FRI                               
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 222250  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
325 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                      
WEAK SURFACE TROF EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AT 06Z              
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN PLUME OF                     
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA. SHORT TERM PROBLEM             
WILL BE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS             
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED INTO NWRN CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT HAD             
DISSIPATED BY 230 AM.  STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAVE GENERALLY              
BEEN WEAKENING WITH TOPS WARMING ON SATL LOOP.  WITH SFC TROF                   
PUSHING INTO AREA DURING THE MORNING AND RUC INDICATING CHC OF SOME             
PRECIP IN AREA OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL PUT               
SOME LOW POPS IN FOR THE MORNING THERE AND KEEP IN FOR NERN                     
AREAS.                                                                          
SFC TROF WASHES OUT FOR MOST PART DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE              
IN THE WAY OF FORCING ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT AS NEXT WAVE              
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NEW SFC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN               
PCKYS. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THEN FOR TNGT AND SAT.                              
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS            
TODAY NOT HELPING THINGS. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY                   
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
.OMA...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY - ALL ZONES IN FCST AREA            
       OF ERN NE AND SWRN IA                                                    
DF                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 230706  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
920 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                      
DISC:  13Z ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES OVR THE TX/LA GULF CST AND A WK TROF          
ALNG THE CSTL AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS.                                           
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF SUN ACRS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH OBS SHOWING        
PLENTY OF HZ. 09Z RUC A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN 00Z ETA...BY SHOWING A WK         
S/W TO MOVE SWD OUT OF SW VA THIS MORNING INTO THE NRN PTN OF SC BY AFT.        
STILL HAVE QUITE OF BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE OVR THE AREA. WITH GOOD             
HEATING THIS AFT...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES         
SIMILAR TO THU ARND 4000. EXPECT SOME ISO/WDLY SCT AFT/EARLY EVENING            
SHRA/TSRA OVR THE AREA. LOOKING AT CHS RAOB PCPN WATER OVR 2.5 INCHES           
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR SOME. TEMPS ALREADY OFF          
TO A FAST START THIS MORNING...BETTER THAN THU...DUE TO PLENTY OF SUN.          
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TDA. HI HERE ALREADY          
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.                                                        
.CAE...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY                                         
       SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                              
       GAZ040-063>065-077.                                                      
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 231323  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
922 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                      
RUC SHOWS WEAK VORT MAX MOVING FROM N NC MOUNTAINS TO METRO CLT                 
TODAY. MODIFIED AREA SOUNDINGS YIELD CAPE AROUND 4000 WITH MINIMAL              
SHEAR. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE                 
MOUNTAINS AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TAKES PLACE.  EXPECT A FEW                    
STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. WILL EXPAND SMALL POP TO ALL                  
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND MAYBE NC FOOTHILLS TO ENCOMPASS BLUE RIDGE.                  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA REACHED FOR ONE HOUR AT CLT YESTERDAY AND                
WILL BE APPROACHED AGAIN TODAY. WILL NOT ISSUE ADVISORY DUE TO                  
EXPECTED SHORT DURATION OF HEAT INDEX 105 OR GREATER. WILL HANDLE               
WITH STRONGLY WORDED NOWCAST. TEMPERATURES RUNNING 2-4 DEGREES                  
ABOVE FWC GUIDANCE...BUT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAY TOO HIGH LATELY.                 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.                
CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.                                  
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 230708  sc                                      

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
930 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                      
CWFA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN EPAC TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE                 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UPPER LOW                  
APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST WITH A DRY MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS                    
CENTRAL CA. 12Z OAK RAOB IS REFLECTING THE INCREASED ONSHORE WITH               
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING BETWEEN 900 AND 1000 MB PAST 24 HRS WHILE DRA               
HAS SHOWN WARMING ALOFT UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED                     
WITH THE UPPER HIGH.                                                            
FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TODAY.                  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 PATTERN THROUGH SAT MORNING                
WITH VERY MODEST 5OO MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTION                   
OF THE CWFA AND ABOUT A 60M DECREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.                      
24HR CHANGE SHOWING SJV VALLEY TEMPS ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY ACROSS               
THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF YESTERDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH.                     
12Z ETA/NGM DIFFER ON H8 TEMP OUTCOME TODAY WITH THE NGM SHOWING                
MORE COOLING. WITH THE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING                 
SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE SJV THIS AFTERNOON AND HEIGHTS                         
TRENDING DOWN...FEEL THE SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS REFLECTED IN            
ZONES LOOKS REASONABLE.                                                         
P-GRADIENTS ON THE INCREASE TODAY WITH THE ETA SHOWING A SFO-LAS                
GRADIENT NEAR 12MB BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE RUC IS A FEW MB                  
WEAKER. EXPECT LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON              
THROUGH THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES...AS WELL AS ALONG THE WEST             
SIDE OF THE SJV VALLEY. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR ADJUST TO                   
WINDS.                                                                          
.HNX...NONE                                                                     
LINDQUIST                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSTO 231624  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
152 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                                      
WEAK VORT LOBE DEPICTED BY MORNING RUC SHOWN BY ETA/NGM TO STALL                
OVER AREA TONIGHT. MORE VIGOROUS VORT LOBE APPROACHES AREA SAT                  
AS UPPER RIDGE RETROGRESSES AND TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER E COAST                   
ALLOWING NW FLOW INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES. MID LEVEL COOLING                    
NOTED OVER AREA SAT/SUN...MOST PRONOUNCED IN ETA. LEE TROUGH TO                 
DEVELOP SAT...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. MAX OMEGA OVER AREA               
SAT AFTERNOON WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE. HIGH/MID LEVEL DRYING SAT                  
NIGHT. ANOTHER VORT LOBE APPROACHES AREA SUN IN NW FLOW...BRINGING              
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION.                                                      
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS AND MORE CLOUDS AROUND EXPECT SLIGHT COOLING                 
SAT. TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL. VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW W                  
SIDE LEE TROUGH TO LOWER DEW POINTS A BIT SAT. CONTINUED VEERING                
WILL LEAD TO IMPROVED DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUN RESULTING IN SLIGHT                    
WARMING LEE OF MOUNTAINS. FWC TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY TOO HIGH.               
WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER FAN.                                                    
AVL 68/89/66/89 2433                                                            
CLT 71/94/70/95 1433                                                            
GSP 72/95/71/96 1433                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 231418  sc