AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1145 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...                                          
245 AM CST                                                                      
OBVIOUS FOCUS ON SHORT TERM OF FORECAST...WITH MAJOR WINTER STORM IN            
PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.                                 
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI PER VAPOR LOOPS            
AT 0830Z...WITH ASSOCIATED 997 MB SFC LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE IL/IND             
BORDER JUST SOUTH OF KLWV. IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF             
BETTER THAN 8 MB/3HRS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL IL...NORTHWEST OF THE            
ACTUAL SFC LOW TRACK...LIKELY AN INDICATION OF VERTICAL MOTION FROM             
STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND                  
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TEXT BOOK COUPLED UPPER JET             
STRUCTURE. TOUGH FORECAST FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM...GIVEN             
VERY POTENT DYNAMICS...THOUGH THERMAL PROFILE HAS MAINTAINED MIX OF             
SN/PL/RA OVER SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FCST AREA WHERE WARMER LOW               
LEVELS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERCOME. FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN 0-12 HR               
FCSTS OF RUC/NAM/GFS THAT AREA GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 WILL             
REMAIN GENERALLY A MIX OF PCPN TYPES EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE                
COLUMN COOLS ENOUGH FOR CHANGE OVER TO ALL FROZEN PCPN. ANOTHER                 
COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA IS THE                 
APPROACH OF THE DRY SLOT...NOTED IN SAT AND RADAR NOW PUNCHING INTO             
EAST CENTRAL IL. THIS EXPECTED TO FURTHER LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION               
POTENTIAL EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...SO HAVE CHOSEN TO DOWNGRADE WINTER            
STORM WARNING TO WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THESE COUNTIES FOR CONTINUED            
MIX THIS MORNING. HAVE DECREASED TOTAL SNOW IN THOSE AREAS FROM                 
AROUND 6-7 INCHES I-55 CORRIDOR...TO 1-3 INCHES IN MUCH OF NORTHWEST            
INDIANA.                                                                        
FARTHER WEST...AGAIN MODEL FORECASTS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH              
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP FROM NERN MISSOURI THROUGH NORTH                    
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IL. THIS ROUGHLY ALONG KUIN...KRPJ/KDKB...TO KMKE             
LINE...WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO FALL                
ENTIRELY AS SNOW. BASED ON THIS HAVE SHIFTED AXIS OF HEAVIEST                   
SNOWFALL SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL APPEARS               
THAT 8-12 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS THE REMAINING WARNING AREA THIS                  
MORNING...AGAIN WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM EASTERN LEE/LASALLE             
CO NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE/MCHENRY COUNTIES. GIVEN STRONG                        
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND BANDING IN DEFORMATION ZONE...COULD SEE               
SOME LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. VERY SHARP EDGE TO DEFORMATION            
PRECIP FIELD TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS                 
TAPERING OFF QUICKLY INTO NW IL/EASTERN IA. FORECAST REPRESENTS BEST            
SHOT AT SLICING THINGS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE AND MODEL               
TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW NORTH AND                
WEST WHERE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS A LITTLE HIGHER...AS NNW WINDS                 
EXPECTED TO GUST 25 TO 35 MPH LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS             
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO.                     
HELD ONTO A LOW CHANCE POP FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW AS DEPARTING                     
DEFORMATION ZONE MAY LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY                     
NORTHEAST. SYSTEM FORECAST TO LIFT OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY THIS                      
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP GENERALLY ENDING EARLY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY                
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD HELP            
CLEAR SKIES INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE AFTN.                               
WENT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR TODAYS MAXES AND                    
TONIGHTS LOWS NORTHWEST HALF OR SO CWA PER CURRENT OBS AND EXPECTED             
SNOW FIELD...AS MOS NUMBERS ALL APPEAR TOO WARM THERE.                          
NO SIG CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST AT THIS TIME.                               
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
1145 AM CST                                                                     
RE 18Z TAFORS...STORM RAPIDLY WINDING DOWN WITH UPR LO MOVG NEWRD FM            
NERN IND AND SFC LO IN CNTRL LWR MI. BACK EDGE OF LAST SN BAND FROM             
RFD TO VYS TO BMI WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING CONTG DEC IN                 
INTENSITY. THIS TO CLR CHI TERMINALS BTWN 19Z AND 20Z BRINGING SN TO            
END. MODERATELY STRONG NW WINDS CAUSING SOME BLSN BUT GUSTINESS                 
RAPIDLY DROPS OFF ACROSS NW IL AND S CNTRL WI AS PRES RISE CENTER               
MOVG FM  E CNTRL IL INTO NW IND. WNDS TO CONT TO BACK AND SLACKEN AS            
SFC LO MOVS OVR THE LWR GRTLKS BY LATER AFTERNOON. CIGS BREAKINGUP              
ACROSS SW WI AND NW IL AND CLRG TO CONT TO SPREAD EWRD DURG THE                 
AFTERNOON WITH QUICK EXIT OF SYSTEM. WNDS CONT TO WEAKEN THIS EVE               
THEN BACK FURTHER TO SWRLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING REINFORCING CDFNT               
CURRENTLY MOVG THRU DKTS.                                                       
TRS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...WINTER STORM WARNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 57                 
THROUGH 18Z TODAY.                                                              
.IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z TODAY.                                
.LM...GALE WARNING THROUGH 00Z. SCA FOR NEASHRE TONIGHT.                        
3&&                                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1218 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.                                            
A PUBLIC WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z.  SUSTAINED WIND                  
20-30KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND                 
00Z.                                                                            
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS THROUGH INDIANA AND INTO MICHIGAN.  AS THIS             
LOW CONTINUES NE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WIND              
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 TO 15KTS AFTER SUNSET.                               
MVFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING.  SKIES WILL CLEAR            
BUT WIND WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION.                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT TO TRY AND REFLECT TEMPERATURES AT 12Z. WARM AIR             
WORKED IN FARTHER N THAT ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES             
CAME OUT HIGHER THAN ON PREV FORECAST. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN HOUR               
WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF                 
COLDER AIR ACROSS ERN AND NERN FA.                                              
PRECIP HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY BUT MORE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS                
SWRN IN. THUS LOWERED POPS A LITTLE...BUT DIDN/T REDUCE TOO MUCH                
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE DETERMINED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
//HAVE DECIDED TO START WIND ADVISORY AT 13Z RATHER THAN 15Z. NO                
OTHER CHANGES//                                                                 
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION/WIND TODAY.                
AT 07Z SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED TO THE E OF KEVV. UPPER LOW WAS                  
BACK ACROSS MO/AR BORDER. RAIN COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA                
/FA/ WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S N TO MID TO                   
UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                                
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AT 06Z NAM/NGM WAS CLOSER TO REALITY THAN             
GFS. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD NAM/NGM SOLUTION TODAY. OTHERWISE AFTER              
TODAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.                                  
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NE                   
THROUGH THE FA AND BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IN BY 12Z. CURRENT                    
TIMING OF DRY SLOT PUTS IT ACROSS SWRN THIRD TO HALF OF FA BY 12Z.              
BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE BASICALLY KEPT PREV FORECAST OF                    
CHANCE POPS AFT 12Z ACROSS FAR SW INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL POPS                
ACROS FAR N. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING INTO SW FA AT 12Z SO                  
PLAN TO START THEM WITH A MIX OF RA/SN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY MID              
MORNING COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SWEPT ACROSS FA CHANGING PRECIP TO                 
SNOW. HOWEVER BY THEN BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE NE OF THE FA.                    
DURING THE AFTERNOON POPS WILL DECREASE AS SYSTEM EXITS. GIVEN ALL              
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH                    
HIGHEST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NW FA.                                          
OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WINDS TODAY. PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWING              
50KT AT 850 APPROACHING FA WITH CURRENT KIND VAD WIND PROFILE                   
SHOWING 40KT AT 4000 FT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS SYSTEM EXITS              
TO THE NE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RUC WIND GUST                      
FORECASTS CONFIRM THIS BY INDICATING GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THE FA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE FA.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. 12Z TEMPERATURES                  
WILL BE THUS BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MANY AREAS TODAY. BASED                
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL MAKE BEST EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHAT THIS                 
WILL BE...AND THIS ENDS UP WARMER THAN MAV NUMBERS INDICATE PER                 
GFS/S FASTER SYSTEM.                                                            
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS                  
COLDER DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR MOST                    
AREAS AND LOOK OK...BUT MAV LOOKS A BIT WARM IN THE SOUTH. WILL                 
CUT SOME THERE.                                                                 
WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A                  
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUE AND THU/FRI. NOT SURE ABOUT MOISTURE               
AVAILABILITY ON TUE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HAVE A LOOK AT THU/FRI.           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALLY                                                     
LONG TERM...TUCEK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
655 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOME REPORTS FROM MICHIGAN COUNTIES OF ICING ALONG WITH LIMBS AND               
SMALL TREES COMING DOWN. FEW PROBLEMS ON THE ROADS THOUGH. SHOULD               
SEE INCREASED ACCUMULATION NEXT FEW HOURS FOR DRY SLOT WORKS IN.                
HAVE UPGRADED THESE COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR COMBINATION            
OF THIS ICING AND POSSIBLE SNOW WITH COMMA HEAD LATER THIS MORNING              
AND THIS AFTERNOON. CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR HILLSDALE COUNTY            
AS IT WAS REPLACED WITH THE WARNING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH TAF ISSUANCE. STILL EXPECT                
COMMA HEAD AND DEFORMATION AREA TO BRING BRIEF HEAVY SNOW TO KSBN.              
KFWA STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THIS AREA AND SHOULD NOT GET INTO            
THE HEAVY SNOW. LAKE ENHANCE BAND EXPECTED AT KSBN LATE AFTERNOON AS            
WELL BEFORE MOISTURE PULLS EAST AND PCPN ENDS THIS EVENING.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
OBVIOUS CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION TYPE AND                   
AMOUNTS TODAY WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                  
GENERALLY FOLLOWING BLEND OF RUC AND NAM ALONG WITH REMOTE SENSING              
TOOLS FOR SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                  
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF ARKANSAS AND                   
MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND HEADING NORTHEAST. THIS LOW SHOULD CROSS              
OUR CENTRAL FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG A LINE FROM ABOUT              
GUS TO LAF TO TOL. MSAS ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF EVV            
AT 07Z WITH STRONG 3HR PRESSURE FALLS FROM CENTRAL IL TO SOUTHWEST              
OHIO. RUC40 SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION AND MOVES               
UPPER LOW TO JUST SOUTH OF GUS BY 15Z WITH SURFACE LOW TO NORTHERN              
OHIO. GIVEN RAPID MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM SEEN ON WATER                        
VAPOR...THIS FAST MOVEMENT NOW SEEMS REASONABLE.                                
REGIONAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION                
AHEAD OF MAIN LOW WITH MOSTLY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME EARLY REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN               
THE WARNING AREA AND 07Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SOME SNOW              
ALREADY MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE EAST WITH STRONGER OMEGA AND DYNAMIC            
COOLING. WITH APPROACH OF LOW EXPECT WARM POCKET OF TEMPS ALOFT TO              
MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST OF THE PCPN IN             
THE FORM OF RAIN CENTRAL AND EAST WITH FREEZING RAIN NORTHWEST WHERE            
SURFACE TEMPS DROP TO 31 TO 32F. SOME SLEET ALSO EXPECTED WITH                  
SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST            
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK BEFORE LOW             
MOVES CLOSER AND TEMPS RISE BRIEFLY. NO PLANS TO EXPAND ADVISORY                
EAST BUT WILL MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTS.                     
ONCE SURFACE LOW PASSES EAST THIS MORNING COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RACE            
IN AND CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE              
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST SHORTLY AFTER CHANGEOVER AND LIMIT                        
ACCUMULATIONS THERE. DEFORMATION ZONE AND TROWEL NORTH AND WEST OF              
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW               
WEST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK. HEAVIEST SNOW STILL EXPECTED WITHIN                
CURRENT WARNING AREA WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.              
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. AS THE DEFORMATION                
AREA PASSES BY...A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SETS UP FOR LAKE                 
ENHANCEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NAM40 SHOWS THIS NICELY WITH A                      
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE LAKE AND LONG FETCH ON BACKSIDE              
OF LOW. LOW LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS SHOW GOOD LIFT CENTERED AROUND 21Z.              
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT NW TO W FETCH AND              
DELTA T VALUES IN MID TEENS SHOULD KEEP AT LEAST SCT SNOW SHOWERS               
AND FLURRIES GOING ACROSS MICHIGAN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING                 
HOURS.                                                                          
FINALLY...STRONG WINDS A CONCERN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS             
DEEPENING LOW PASSES BY AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RUSHES IN.                
STRONG 3HR PRESSURE RISE AND FALL COUPLET TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AID             
IN STRONGER WINDS. BEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE              
BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST BUT SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA STILL SHOULD            
SEE STRONG WINDS MIXED DOWN WITH THE COLD AIR. 850MB WINDS NEAR 50              
KNOTS WITH 925MB AROUND 40KTS. IT IS RARE FOR US TO REACH HIGH WIND             
WARNING CRITERIA WITHOUT THE HELP OF CONVECTIVE LINE OR                         
PRECIPITATION BRINGING THE WINDS DOWN. THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW                  
SHOWERS IN THE EAST BUT FEEL GUSTS TO 58 MPH WILL BE ISOLATED AT                
BEST. HAVE THEREFORE STAYED WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN AREAS              
BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH FROM A LINE EAST OF MARION             
TO NAPOLEON.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE AROUND TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF               
SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. MATURING +PNA                
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A RIDGE              
DEVELOPING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY ALONG THE WEST COAST...ALLOWING FOR             
A MODESTLY DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF              
OF NOAM. FAVORABLE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WILL NOT BE PRESENT WITH A            
+NAO CYCLE CONTINUING. THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS WILL BE VERY WINTRY                  
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES AT SNOW...HOWEVER            
GIVEN THE LACK OF -NAO THE COLD PATTERN IS UNLIKELY TO LOCK IN FOR              
MORE THAN A WEEK OR SO WITH A MODERATING TREND POSSIBLE JUST PAST               
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.                                                 
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL SAT NGT INTO MON AS MUCH            
COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND AN ARCTIC FROPA. INITIALLY            
SAT NGT INTO SUN FLOW IS WESTERLY AND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE NOT               
VERY DEEP. THAT SAID...00Z/01 NAM-WRF 925MB PLUME ANALYSIS                      
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AN I-94 CONVERGENCE BAND TO DEVELOP ACROSS             
SW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SAT NGT AND SUN. GIVEN WESTERLY                          
FLOW...MAJORITY OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD ALONG/NORTH OF             
THE MI/IN STATE LINE. SUN NGT STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE            
GREAT LAKES...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE -SHSN...ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING. BEHIND THIS                    
SHORTWAVE CLOUD BEARING FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW...AND MORE             
FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILE WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE                   
MICHIGAN IN MOIST CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. APPEARS BEST WINDOW FOR              
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR OUR CWA WILL BE SUN NGT INTO MON              
MORNING...CONCURRENT WITH BEST LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS AND MORE                  
FAVORABLE FETCH. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW GIVEN             
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH MESOSCALE EVENTS AT THIS TIME RANGE...                
HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO INCREASE POPS WITH AN                
ADVISORY CRITERIA EVENT WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.                        
LATEST GFS FORECASTING SURFACE RIDGE TO CROSS THE CWA MIDDAY MON                
ALLOWING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BACK SW AND SHIFT ANY REMAINING LAKE            
EFFECT BACK INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. NEXT            
IN A SERIES OF CLIPPERS THEN FORECAST TO DROP SE THROUGH THE                    
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MON NGT INTO TUE. 12Z/30 GFS LOST CONTINUITY               
WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER NEW 00Z/01 ITERATION IS BACK TO A                   
SIMILAR LOOK OF 00Z/30 RUN. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FOR MON NGT/TUE            
AND KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. IF THIS                
SYSTEM BECOMES A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED...MAY SEE A GENERAL LGT                  
SNOWFALL WITHIN WAA REGIME AHEAD OF CLIPPER...FOLLOWED BY MORE LAKE             
EFFECT POTENTIAL BEHIND. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO LATER                   
PERIODS FROM TUE NGT INTO THU. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN             
FOR NUMEROUS CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVES...HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS              
THAT PREVIOUS SHIFT ADDED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON            
     FOR INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ017-INZ018-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-               
     INZ025-INZ026-INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                                 
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS                     
AFTERNOON      FOR INZ005-INZ006-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-INZ020.            
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON              
     FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ012.                                                  
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR                     
     MIZ077-MIZ081.                                                             
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON            
     FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.               
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-              
     LMZ046.                                                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING              
     FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY                                                            
LONG TERM/AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
630 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT TO TRY AND REFLECT TEMPERATURES AT 12Z. WARM AIR             
WORKED IN FARTHER N THAT ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES             
CAME OUT HIGHER THAN ON PREV FORECAST. SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN HOUR               
WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF                 
COLDER AIR ACROSS ERN AND NERN FA.                                              
PRECIP HAD DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY BUT MORE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS                
SWRN IN. THUS LOWERED POPS A LITTLE...BUT DIDN/T REDUCE TOO MUCH                
UNTIL TRENDS CAN BE DETERMINED.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                                                    
EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS IN THE 010-020 RANGE TO PERSIST THIS MORNING               
ALONG WITH VERY STRONG SW GRADIENT WINDS AS THE POWERFUL SFC LOW                
TRACKS TOWARD LAKE ERIE. BEST CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SHSN                   
APPEARS TO BE 15-21Z AS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE              
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. BUFKIT SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS            
MAY BE THIS AM HOWEVER MIXING HT WINDS STILL IN THE 40KT RANGE EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND PRECIP SHOULD END TOWARD              
00Z. CIGS SHOULD ALSO BECOME VFR BY 06Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
//HAVE DECIDED TO START WIND ADVISORY AT 13Z RATHER THAN 15Z. NO                
OTHER CHANGES//                                                                 
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION/WIND TODAY.                
AT 07Z SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED TO THE E OF KEVV. UPPER LOW WAS                  
BACK ACROSS MO/AR BORDER. RAIN COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA                
/FA/ WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S N TO MID TO                   
UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                                
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AT 06Z NAM/NGM WAS CLOSER TO REALITY THAN             
GFS. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD NAM/NGM SOLUTION TODAY. OTHERWISE AFTER              
TODAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.                                  
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NE                   
THROUGH THE FA AND BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IN BY 12Z. CURRENT                    
TIMING OF DRY SLOT PUTS IT ACROSS SWRN THIRD TO HALF OF FA BY 12Z.              
BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE BASICALLY KEPT PREV FORECAST OF                    
CHANCE POPS AFT 12Z ACROSS FAR SW INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL POPS                
ACROS FAR N. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING INTO SW FA AT 12Z SO                  
PLAN TO START THEM WITH A MIX OF RA/SN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY MID              
MORNING COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SWEPT ACROSS FA CHANGING PRECIP TO                 
SNOW. HOWEVER BY THEN BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE NE OF THE FA.                    
DURING THE AFTERNOON POPS WILL DECREASE AS SYSTEM EXITS. GIVEN ALL              
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH                    
HIGHEST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NW FA.                                          
OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WINDS TODAY. PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWING              
50KT AT 850 APPROACHING FA WITH CURRENT KIND VAD WIND PROFILE                   
SHOWING 40KT AT 4000 FT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS SYSTEM EXITS              
TO THE NE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RUC WIND GUST                      
FORECASTS CONFIRM THIS BY INDICATING GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THE FA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE FA.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. 12Z TEMPERATURES                  
WILL BE THUS BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MANY AREAS TODAY. BASED                
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL MAKE BEST EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHAT THIS                 
WILL BE...AND THIS ENDS UP WARMER THAN MAV NUMBERS INDICATE PER                 
GFS/S FASTER SYSTEM.                                                            
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS                  
COLDER DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR MOST                    
AREAS AND LOOK OK...BUT MAV LOOKS A BIT WARM IN THE SOUTH. WILL                 
CUT SOME THERE.                                                                 
WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A                  
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUE AND THU/FRI. NOT SURE ABOUT MOISTURE               
AVAILABILITY ON TUE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HAVE A LOOK AT THU/FRI.           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM UNTIL 7 PM EST FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...CO                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
625 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS                                                    
EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS IN THE 010-020 RANGE TO PERSIST THIS MORNING               
ALONG WITH VERY STRONG SW GRADIENT WINDS AS THE POWERFUL SFC LOW                
TRACKS TOWARD LAKE ERIE. BEST CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP OR SHSN                   
APPEARS TO BE 15-21Z AS THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE              
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE AREA. BUFKIT SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS            
MAY BE THIS AM HOWEVER MIXING HT WINDS STILL IN THE 40KT RANGE EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND PRECIP SHOULD END TOWARD              
00Z. CIGS SHOULD ALSO BECOME VFR BY 06Z.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
//HAVE DECIDED TO START WIND ADVISORY AT 13Z RATHER THAN 15Z. NO                
OTHER CHANGES//                                                                 
FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION/WIND TODAY.                
AT 07Z SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED TO THE E OF KEVV. UPPER LOW WAS                  
BACK ACROSS MO/AR BORDER. RAIN COVERED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA                
/FA/ WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S N TO MID TO                   
UPPER 40S SOUTH.                                                                
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. AT 06Z NAM/NGM WAS CLOSER TO REALITY THAN             
GFS. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD NAM/NGM SOLUTION TODAY. OTHERWISE AFTER              
TODAY MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.                                  
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NE                   
THROUGH THE FA AND BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IN BY 12Z. CURRENT                    
TIMING OF DRY SLOT PUTS IT ACROSS SWRN THIRD TO HALF OF FA BY 12Z.              
BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE BASICALLY KEPT PREV FORECAST OF                    
CHANCE POPS AFT 12Z ACROSS FAR SW INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL POPS                
ACROS FAR N. COLDER AIR SHOULD BE WORKING INTO SW FA AT 12Z SO                  
PLAN TO START THEM WITH A MIX OF RA/SN WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. BY MID              
MORNING COLDER AIR WILL HAVE SWEPT ACROSS FA CHANGING PRECIP TO                 
SNOW. HOWEVER BY THEN BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE NE OF THE FA.                    
DURING THE AFTERNOON POPS WILL DECREASE AS SYSTEM EXITS. GIVEN ALL              
OF THIS WILL CONTINUE TREND OF SMALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH                    
HIGHEST OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS NW FA.                                          
OTHER FACTOR WILL BE WINDS TODAY. PROFILER NETWORK ALREADY SHOWING              
50KT AT 850 APPROACHING FA WITH CURRENT KIND VAD WIND PROFILE                   
SHOWING 40KT AT 4000 FT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AS SYSTEM EXITS              
TO THE NE THIS MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RUC WIND GUST                      
FORECASTS CONFIRM THIS BY INDICATING GUSTS OVER 45 MPH POSSIBLE                 
ACROSS THE FA. THUS WILL EXPAND WIND ADVISORY TO ENTIRE FA.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. 12Z TEMPERATURES                  
WILL BE THUS BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MANY AREAS TODAY. BASED                
ON CURRENT TRENDS WILL MAKE BEST EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHAT THIS                 
WILL BE...AND THIS ENDS UP WARMER THAN MAV NUMBERS INDICATE PER                 
GFS/S FASTER SYSTEM.                                                            
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS                  
COLDER DRIER AIR WORKS IN. MOS TEMPERATURES ARE SIMILAR MOST                    
AREAS AND LOOK OK...BUT MAV LOOKS A BIT WARM IN THE SOUTH. WILL                 
CUT SOME THERE.                                                                 
WILL KEEP EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A                  
SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUE AND THU/FRI. NOT SURE ABOUT MOISTURE               
AVAILABILITY ON TUE AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HAVE A LOOK AT THU/FRI.           
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CS                                                                     
AVIATION...CO                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
221 PM MST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE                
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. SATELLITE                 
SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH               
AMERICA. PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC            
TO OVER THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. STRONG SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN               
CANADA IS MOVING SOUTH.                                                         
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS DID FINE EXCEPT IN ONE AREA. AT 12Z...THE GFS             
AND NAM WERE TOO STRONG/TOO FAR NORTHEAST WITH THE JET SEGMENT OVER             
NORTHERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THE UKMET WAS THE BEST. BY 18Z              
THE MODELS WERE MATCHING UP WITH REALITY BETTER. AT MID LEVELS...               
SATELLITE WOULD INDICATE MODELS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH IN THE CENTRAL            
PACIFIC. ESPECIALLY BY 18Z...MODELS WERE NOT STRONG/AMPLIFIED ENOUGH            
WITH THE TWO STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY THE THE ONE NEAR               
180 WEST. THE GFS WAS DOING BETTER WITH THE EASTERN MOST SYSTEM WITH            
THE UKMET THE BEST NEAR 180 WEST. MODELS WERE CLOSE ON SOUTHERN                 
CANADIAN SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GFS STARTED OUT THE BEST. GOING BY THE               
HEIGHT ANALYSIS...MODELS WERE NOT AMPLIFIED ENOUGH AND NOT FAR ENOUGH           
EAST. THE GFS DID BETTER WITH THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN SYSTEM.                     
AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS WERE HAVE THEIR TROUBLES. THEY WERE NOT                  
CATCHING THE LEE TROUGH CURRENTLY GOING ON WITH THE NAM...ECMWF...              
AND RUC13 DOING THE BEST. ON THE TEMPERATURES...THE GFS FOLLOWED                
CLOSELY BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST. BECAUSE OF HOW              
IT IS DOING WITH THE JET AND OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LIKE THE              
UKMET THE BEST WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. THE GFS IS CLOSE IN                
ITS SOLUTION WITH THE UKMET ALOFT AS FAR AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE            
PATTERN AND WHAT DOES WITH THE EASTERN MOST PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE NAM             
IS THE MOST AMPLIFIED BUT NOT THAT MUCH WORSE. SO OVERALL WILL USE              
A BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFS...AND RUC13.                                         
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...FIRST WHAT TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES                  
TONIGHT. AREA IS IN LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF JET THROUGH THE NIGHT.                
DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REMAINS UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.                 
CURRENTLY HAVE FLURRIES IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...AND              
THIS MESHES WELL WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WILL EXTEND IT                
THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON THE FORCING AND SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA.              
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE CLOUDS. RAISE THE MINS            
A LITTLE HERE. IF CLOUDS GO AWAY QUICKER...THEN MINS WILL HAVE TO BE            
LOWERED.                                                                        
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET PUNCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF            
THE COUNTRY BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING               
INTO THE AREA WITH THE COLD POOL OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF             
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER THICKENS UP DURING THE DAY. AIR MASS IS REALLY            
DRY AND THE TQ INDEX DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY INSTABILITY SHOWERS BUT               
WILL HAVE SOME CLOUD COVER. BEFORE CLOUD COVER ARRIVED TODAY...                 
TEMPERATURES WARMED UP NICELY...EVEN IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. SO BASED            
ON THAT...WILL MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW FIELD OVER US WILL             
NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT...ESPECIALLY LIKE WHAT THE 2 METERS HAVE. 2                
METERS ALSO LOOK TO HANG ONTO THE SNOW FIELD AND COLD TEMPERATURES              
TOO LONG AS WELL. DESPITE THAT THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY COLD.           
850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST OF MAXES AND WILL                  
CHANGE LITTLE IF ANY.                                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE                 
NIGHT. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE NORTH TO SOUTH JET MOVES INTO THE             
AREA DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES             
BY LATE MORNING OVER THE NORTH AND MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE                      
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. THERE IS STILL A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN           
MODELS AS FAR AS WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. THE GFS IS THE WARMEST AND             
SWINGS THE WINDS ARE TO SOUTHWEST QUICKLY AND RATHER STRONGLY. THE              
UKMET DOES THIS BUT IS NOT AS STRONG AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE RUC13.             
THE NAM KEEPS WINDS OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. CONSIDERING THE               
FLOW ALOFT IS NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST...THINK THE SOUTHWEST WINDS              
LOOK SUSPECT. HOWEVER...THE NAM 850 MB TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TOO              
COLD. THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY COLDER THE GFS. WILL RAISE MAXES SOME               
BUT WILL KEEP BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...RIDGING AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS PUSH INTO THE AREA            
DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY WITH           
THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER AND LESS CLOUD             
SOLUTION AND DID RAISE MAXES A FEW DEGREES.                                     
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS NOT TOO DIFFERENT. GENERAL PATTERN              
REMAINS THE SAME WITH SOME KIND OF NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT WITH               
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...AND              
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. TUESDAY WILL BE            
THE TRICKIEST WITH MODELS SHOWING A DIFFERENCE IN WHEN THE FRONT                
COMES THROUGH. GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST BOUNDARY MAY NOT BE            
THE COLDEST AIR INITIALLY BUT WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS                      
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM UP MUCH.                                             
EVEN THOUGH GFS IS STRONGER ALOFT WITH SYSTEM COMING THROUGH                    
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ESSENTIALLY IT AND THE ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY             
STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. AS A RESULT...COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL             
SAG IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME...AND LIKE THE HPC DEPICTION.            
WILL GO COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SURFACE                 
RIDGE PULLS AWAY WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW A DECENT WARMUP            
AND WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE. MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS             
LOOKS TO STAY CUTOFF. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES AND LIFT              
ALOFT COULD SEE SOME VERY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WORTH                    
MENTIONING THIS FAR OUT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1023 AM MST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING                        
CLOUDS...TEMPS AND WX/POPS.                                                     
12Z RUC/NAM INDICATING WEAK H5 VORT MAX SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE                
CWA. FAIRLY STRONG/PERSISTENT AREA OF H650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF            
THIS FEATURE. LOW LEVELS VERY DRY...AS EVIDENCED BY KLBF/KDEN 12Z               
RAOBS. MODELS/RAOBS INDICATE WEAK AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY                  
BETWEEN H7 AND H6...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH RETURNS ON RADAR.                 
INITIALLY THOUGHT BOUNDARY LAYER TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP REACHING             
THE GROUND...BUT 15Z OB AT KAKO HAD -SN (WITH AN 8C DEWPOINT                    
DEPRESSION). DRY AIR/SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY LIMIT             
AMOUNTS...BUT SCATTERED FLURRIES LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE               
WEST. SNOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE HAVING A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPS...AS             
TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY ROSE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST.                 
USING AN AVG MIXED DEPTH OF 500M WOULD YIELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S             
AND LOW 40S...WHICH APPEAR REASONABLE. UPPED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL               
DEGREES IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS TO COVER THIS. MAIN TEMP CONCERN              
IS ALSO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTH. A FEW AREAS (NAMELY              
KITR/KGLD/KCBK) WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR MAX TEMPS BY 19Z BEFORE CLOUD             
COVER COMES AND LIMITS HEATING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ONLY GO A              
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENT TEMPS. DESPITE WARMER                           
TEMPS...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY LAYER WOULD ALLOW ANY PRECIP TO                
QUICKLY WET BULB TO FLURRIES...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MIXED PRECIP.           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                     
1120 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
...DAMAGING WINDS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND            
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT...                                              
.MEDIA NOTE...START TIME OF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES HAS BEEN PUSHED TO              
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
UNSEASONABLY MILD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A COLD               
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LOW TOPPED                     
CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.                                      
TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY SUNDAY AND THEN BELOW NORMAL                 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
COASTAL LOW MAY CLIP SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT IN EARLY             
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                  
AS OF 10 AM...TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH BACKDOOR FRONT JUST            
INTO SOUTHEAST MAINE. THIS FRONT HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWEST INTO THE                
TROPICAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BASED ON LATEST RUC AND TRENDS IN KGYX             
VELOCITY FIELDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DON/T EXPECT THIS TO GET               
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PORTSMOUTH. LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO            
MIX OUT AS IT PUSHED SOUTHWEST. THUS BASICALLY EXPECTING IT TO STAY             
IN KGYX/S COUNTY WARNING AREA.                                                  
CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH DON/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A              
BRIEF BREAK. TEMPS SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT              
FALL JUST SHORT OF THE RECORD.                                                  
PASSING SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY...THOUGH NOTHING OF MUCH SIGNIFICANCE             
AS MAIN SHOWERS IS NOW PASSING ACROSS EASTERN MASS.                             
MAIN EVENT IS THIS EVENING.                                                     
INTERPRETATION OF LATEST DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A NARROW                    
OPPORTUNITY FOR 50 KT GUST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS PERIOD WILL            
ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED WITH LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. TIMING IS FROM 01Z              
(8 PM) FOR THE WESTERN SECTIONS UNTIL MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST AS THE               
MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STRONG               
LOW LEVEL JET OF 70 KNOTS TRAVERSE THE REGION AND THUS PRESENTS THE             
DANGER.                                                                         
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 SHOULD RESULT IN A COUPLE HUNDRED                
J/KG OF CAPE.  WITH SO MUCH FORCING THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET A              
NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP            
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE                  
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM                  
ACTIVITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE ABLE TO BRING DOWN 45 TO 55               
MPH WIND GUSTS. THEREFORE...ALL AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE                       
MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE REMAIN IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. THE AREAS TO              
THE NORTH WILL BE CHANGED FROM A WATCH TO AN ADVISORY.                          
INTENSE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTS ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY                
WESTERN SECTIONS. THUS...WATCHING FOR ROTATION IN ANY CELLS THAT                
DEVELOP. WITH CELL MOTION AT NEARLY 70 KTS...ANY POSSIBLE TOR SHOULD            
BE SHORT LIVED...BUT COVER A MODERATELY LONG SWATH OF AREA.  SEE                
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.                                   
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END                
THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION AND THE CHANGE IN PRESSURE              
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS FOR A             
FEW HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.  IT WILL TAKE                
SOMETIME FOR THE REAL CHILLY AIR TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION...SO WILL              
FOLLOW MAV LOWS WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID              
40S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.                
TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT. WITH FAST WEST FLOW            
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING...LOOKS DRY THRU WEEKEND.                            
SUNDAY...WINDS ABATE AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS LOCAL AREA AND                    
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                           
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENG...AND LOW PRESSURE                   
DEVELOPS WELL SOUTHEAST OF ACK. MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROG LOW              
POSITION OFFSHORE WITH THIS LOW...SO COASTAL LOCALES...EXTREME SE               
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY RAIN/SNOW. VERY QUICK LOOK AT               
12Z NAM INDICATES A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL HAVE TO             
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER RUNS...BUT FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD                      
ENSEMBLE...HPC AND KEEP LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE.                                   
THIS STORM EXITS QUICKLY AND NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS GRTLKS                
REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATER TUESDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY            
THIS LOW LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.                                        
THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AS WEDNESDAY PROGRESSES AND STRONG HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS MID WEST BEHIND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                     
TEMPS MUCH MORE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WARM SECTOR IS OVER THE REGION WITH STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS            
EVENING. GENERALLY MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.            
PASSING SHOWERS WILL LOWER VSBY INTO THE 3-5SM CATEGORY AT TIME.                
MAIN EVENT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND CONVECTION OCCURS FROM 00 TO             
06Z. LOW LEVEL JET DOES DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN                  
POSSIBLE COMPRESSION CONCERNS.                                                  
FOLLOWING FRONT...EXPECT GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS. THESE DO DIMINISH TO            
25 TO 35 KT IN VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT GENERAL AVIATION                
SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST MODERATE LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ON              
SATURDAY. SEE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FORECASTS FOR DETAILS.                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES ON THE MARINE AT THIS TIME. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS                    
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE               
VERY CONFIDENT IN STRONG GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS               
ALL WATERS...ESPECIALLY POST FRONTAL. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH STORM                 
WARNINGS FOR OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS AND NANTUCKET SOUND TONIGHT              
WHERE NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE 50 KNOT WIND GUSTS FOR NANTUCKET.  SEAS             
WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO BETWEEN 13 AND 17 FEET ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN                
OPEN WATERS TONIGHT AS THE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE.                              
IN LONGER TERM...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER SAT OVER MOST OF                  
WATERS BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS FINALLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM            
PASSING WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND MON WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND              
SEAS... BUT MORE LIKELY STAYING WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE AT            
THIS TIME.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 AND 0.75              
INCHES.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE                   
CONVECTION WITH SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  THE HEAVIEST                
RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MA AND NORTHERN MA AS THE BACKDOOR                
COLD FRONT PROVIDES SOME ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE.  POOR DRAINAGE                 
STREET FLOODING WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVY LINE OF SHOWERS THIS                  
EVENING...BUT NO SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.                        
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD HIGHS FRI LOOK SAFE AS MOST OF THEM ARE AROUND 70F...EXCEPT              
WORCESTER WHICH IS IN MID 60S.                                                  
RECORDS WARM MINS / RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...                    
BDL - HARTFORD WINDSOR LOCKS.... 47 IN 1991 / 70 IN 2001                        
BOS - BOSTON LOGAN AIRPORT...... 51 IN 2001 / 71 IN 2001                        
ORH - WORCESTER AIRPORT......... 50 IN 1934 / 64 IN 2001                        
PVD - PROVIDENCE TF GREEN....... 49 IN 2001 / 71 IN 2001                        
PRELIMINARY NOVEMBER CLIMATE SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. IT                     
CERTAINLY WAS A WARM MONTH AND WAS IN THE TOP 5 FOR ALL FOUR LONG               
TERM CLIMATE SITES. AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES ARE AS FOLLOWS...              
PVD - 49.2 DEGREES. 2ND WARMEST ON RECORD...BEHIND 49.8 IN 1948.                
BOS - 49.1 DEGREES. 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD.                                      
BDL - 46.8 DEGREES. TIES FOR 4TH WARMEST ON RECORD.                             
ORH - 45.9 DEGREES. WARMEST ON RECORD...AHEAD OF 45.2 IN 1975.                  
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY            
     FOR CTZ002>004.                                                            
MA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR            
     MAZ005>007-014-026.                                                        
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY            
     FOR MAZ002>004-008>013-015>024.                                            
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR            
     NHZ011-012-015.                                                            
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY            
     FOR RIZ001>008.                                                            
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY             
     FOR ANZ232-254-255.                                                        
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR               
     ANZ231-233>235-237-250.                                                    
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR               
     ANZ230-236.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...TONGUE/OKX                                                         
LONG TERM....WICHROWSKI/OKX                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
948 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERNS FOCUS ON LES HEADLINES TONIGHT.                                        
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE/CLOSED             
MID-LVL LOW LIFTING NE INTO ERN ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS              
ROTATING EAST INTO NRN MN. MOIST LOW-LEVEL NRLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF             
SYSTEM OVER ERN ONTARIO COMBINED WITH -16C TEMPS AT BASE OF                     
INVERSION NEAR 800 MB RESULTING IN LES BANDS OVER NCNTRL LAKE                   
SUPERIOR WITH LAKE DELTA-T'S IN EXCESS OF 20C. THESE BANDS HAVE                 
BECOME MORE ROBUST THIS EVENING OVER MQT AND WRN ALGER COUNTIES WITH            
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM WINDS BACKING MORE NW OVER                 
LAND. NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO LES BANDS BUT THERE IS GENERALLY A               
GOOD DEAL OF 20+ DBZ RETURNS WITH A FEW SPOTS OF 30+ DBZ ON RADAR.              
BANDS COULD ALSO BE AIDED BY WEAK MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV FROM SHORTWAVE            
MOVING IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST BEST                    
CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT PARALLEL TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE                  
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN AND BACK MORE WRLY. SO...EXPECT A MORE                
DOMINANT BAND TO SET UP ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE IN MQT                
COUNTY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE MUNISING AREA TOWARD 12Z.                        
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR MQT AND ALGER COUNTIES FOR THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 3-6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED             
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FROM BIG BAY THROUGH NEGAUNEE AND FROM               
SKANDIA OVER TO WETMORE.                                                        
CONVERGENCE BAND FROM REMNANTS OF MESOLOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR                
STILL AFFECTING KIWD AREA AS NOTED ON KDLH RADAR. MESOSCALE MODELS              
SUGGEST THIS CONVERGENCE BAND SHOULD LIFT NE TOWARD THE KEWEENAW                
PENINSULA TOWARD 12Z AND PERHAPS DROP ANOTHER QUICK INCH OR TWO OF              
SNOW OVER FAVORED LOCATIONS OF THE WEST.                                        
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT            
AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK WRLY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEXT 2 DAYS OFFER SIGNIFICANT FCST CHALLENGES WHICH ALL REVOLVE                 
AROUND LES.                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE                     
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SE LWR MI. INTENSITY IS            
REVEALED BY THE 12Z KILX SOUNDING WHICH INDICATED A WHOPPING 12HR               
500MB HEIGHT FALL OF 270M. TO THE W...A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW WAS                 
ALONG THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AND A SHORTWAVE TROF                  
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO MN. SOME -SN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH                     
SHORTWAVE. SNOW SHIELD ON NW SIDE OF SYSTEM OVER LWR MI HAS BRUSHED             
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY E OF A KESC TO AU TRAIN LINE.             
DESPITE NE WINDS...LES INTO NCNTL UPPER MI HAD BEEN ALMOST                      
NONEXISTENT THRU EARLY AFTN...AND LATE MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM             
KSAW EXPLAINED WHY. TEMPS WERE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LES...BUT                   
INVERSION WAS BASED AT 911MB OR 2.9KFT AGL WITH SHARP DRYING ABOVE              
IT. WITH INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...LES HAS            
DEVELOPED. TO THE W...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS AND LOW-LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE WITH INDICATIONS OF A MESOLOW CIRCULATION PER SFC OBS A             
FEW HRS AGO TOWARD APOSTLES/KDLH IS SUPPORTING BETTER LES OVER FAR              
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TOO MUCH SHEAR BTWN THE SFC AND 4KFT PER KDLH VAD            
WIND PROFILE PREVENTED ORGRANIZED MESOLOW STRUCTURE OF LES.                     
SNOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL PULL OUT DURING THE             
EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OR SO OF                     
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...FIRST CONCERN IS ONGOING LES               
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM ACTUALLY HAD A NICE HANDLE            
ON THE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AS               
FCST SOUNDING COMPARED QUITE WELL TO LATE MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING               
FROM KSAW. AS IN THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS/NAM RUNS AND LATEST                
RUC...COLUMN WILL BE MOISTENING (AND IT HAS RECENTLY) AS WRN FRINGE             
OF MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LWR MI SYSTEM EXPANDS TO CNTRL               
UPPER MI...AND 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12C. IN ADDITION...                  
SHORTWAVE OVER MN WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...PROVIDING              
FORCING TO HELP RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 7KFT. AT THE                  
LOW-LEVELS...NICE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED BY                 
RUC13/NAM ACROSS SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SHORELINE OF NCNTRL                
UPPER MI (WINDS BACK NRLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MORE WRLY OVER THE             
LAND). SO...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LES               
AND WILL HOLD ONTO ADVYS FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER TONIGHT. AREAS THAT                
RECEIVE ADVY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO WHERE               
ANY DOMINANT BANDS DEVELOP...AND THERE MAY BE ONLY ONE OF THEM.                 
TO THE W...CONVERGENCE AREA OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS TO BECOME             
ORIENTED IN A WNW-ESE BAND AND LIFT NE THRU THE NIGHT. PROGRESSION              
SHOULD REMAIN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADVY FOR                  
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON AS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE KEWEENAW LATE.                   
EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN. IN THE BIG                   
PICTURE...MIDLEVEL LOW/TROFFING TO W WILL ONLY DRIFT E WITH AXIS                
REACHING UPPER MI SUN. END RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT              
LEAST WEAK FORCING AS INDICATED BY 850-500MB QVECTOR PROGS...AND                
THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS FCST                  
SOUNDINGS. MEANWHILE...850MB TEMPS LOWER FROM AROUND -12C SAT TO                
-16C BY LATE SUN AFTN. SO THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY            
FOR LES EVEN WITHOUT SYNOPTIC FORCING. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE                      
LOW-LEVELS IS THE BIG PROBLEM. CONVERGENCE THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS             
DISCUSSED ABOVE (OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WNW/ESE BAND OVER            
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SHARPEN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF              
THE LAKE UNDER SYNOPTIC FORCING. ANY MESOLOWS THAT DEVELOP ALONG                
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALTER THE CONVERGENCE PATTERN AND THUS               
SHIFT LES WHICH SHOULD BECOME QUITE INTENSE DUE TO ALL OF THE                   
FAVORABLE FACTORS THAT ARE COMING TOGETHER. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF MESOLOW FORMING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WRN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MESOLOW PRODUCED BY THE LOCALLY RUN HI RESOLUTION            
WRF CAUSES THE ERN PART OF THE CONVERGENCE BAND TO LIFT N OF THE                
KEWEENAW SAT. REGIONAL CANADIAN LEANS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.                     
RUC13/NAM DO NOT LIFT CONVERGENCE COMPLETELY N OF THE KEWEENAW. WITH            
LIGHT WINDS ALL THE WAY THRU 700MB FROM SAT AFTN THRU MUCH OF SAT               
NIGHT...THERE WON'T BE MUCH TO FORCE MOVEMENT OF LES ONSHORE. SO IT             
MAY TURN OUT THAT LES EVENTUALLY JUST STAYS MOSTLY OUT OVER THE                 
WATER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE OR WRAPPED MOSTLY                  
AROUND WHATEVER MESOLOW OR MESOLOWS DEVELOP. WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A               
DECISION NOW ON THE LES WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT              
THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH              
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A WATCH RIGHT NOW. WITH DEEP MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC              
FORCING/PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NICE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD MOTION            
AND FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS...VERY HVY LES WILL NO                
DOUBT OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW THE WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN.              
HEAVY LES IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT S AND IMPACT THE REST              
OF WRN AND NORTHERN UPPER MI LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS                
WINDS SHIFT N. HEADLINES WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED...BUT HOW FAST THE            
MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW                    
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
TUE THRU FRI...TYPICAL EARLY DEC WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THRU THE MUCH            
OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH NEARLY CONTINUOUS...BUT SHIFTING LES...AND              
TEMPS MOSTLY BLO NORMAL AS GENERAL MEAN TROF POSITION WILL BE OVER              
ERN NAMERICA. AT THE VERY END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND FARTHER DOWN              
THE ROAD...LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR TO ZONAL FLOW WITH                
PACIFIC AIRMASSES ONCE AGAIN BECOMING DOMINANT. EARLY IN THE                    
PERIOD...00Z ECWMF/CANADIAN/UKMET/06Z GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON            
A SHORTWAVE MOVING E OF THE UPPER LAKES TUE. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER                
ALOFT AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXITING THE UPPER LAKES. THIS             
IS A RECENT TREND WITH THE GFS...SO IT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED...BUT             
GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK OF THE OTHER MODELS...WILL TAKE A               
COMPROMISE APPROACH. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LES IN             
THE NW (POSSIBLY BRIEF NRLY) FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM INTO AT LEAST THE               
FIRST PART OF TUE DURING PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS               
DIVING TO AROUND -17C. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS WED THRU FRI               
WITH CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVES MAINTAINING ERN              
TROF. PER HPC DISCUSSSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS              
MORE NRN STREAM DOMINANCE WITH ERN TROF PERSISTENCE. EVEN SO...                 
SHORTWAVE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN PCPN FCST                
LOW...IN PARTICULAR WHERE LES WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF                 
LES...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE. NEXT SHORTWAVE              
IS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY WED...BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF            
LES IN NW FLOW (AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BRIEF NRLY FLOW) AS ANOTHER                  
SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TOWARD -20C.               
HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE SE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THU AND SLIP E               
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FRI. WOULD THUS EXPECT A LIGHTER PURE LES                
REGIME TO PREVAIL THU FOR NW FLOW AREAS WITH A DIMINISHING TREND                
INTO FRI AS WINDS BACK WRLY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LES ADVY MIZ005-006 TONIGHT.                                                   
 LES WATCH MIZ001-003 SAT-SAT NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
ROLFSON (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
453 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NEXT 2 DAYS OFFER SIGNIFICANT FCST CHALLENGES WHICH ALL REVOLVE                 
AROUND LES.                                                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE                     
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SE LWR MI. INTENSITY IS            
REVEALED BY THE 12Z KILX SOUNDING WHICH INDICATED A WHOPPING 12HR               
500MB HEIGHT FALL OF 270M. TO THE W...A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW WAS                 
ALONG THE ND/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER AND A SHORTWAVE TROF                  
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO MN. SOME -SN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH                     
SHORTWAVE. SNOW SHIELD ON NW SIDE OF SYSTEM OVER LWR MI HAS BRUSHED             
THE ERN FCST AREA THIS AFTN...ROUGHLY E OF A KESC TO AU TRAIN LINE.             
DESPITE NE WINDS...LES INTO NCNTL UPPER MI HAD BEEN ALMOST                      
NONEXISTENT THRU EARLY AFTN...AND LATE MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM             
KSAW EXPLAINED WHY. TEMPS WERE JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR LES...BUT                   
INVERSION WAS BASED AT 911MB OR 2.9KFT AGL WITH SHARP DRYING ABOVE              
IT. WITH INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS...LES HAS            
DEVELOPED. TO THE W...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIRMASS AND LOW-LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE WITH INDICATIONS OF A MESOLOW CIRCULATION PER SFC OBS A             
FEW HRS AGO TOWARD APOSTLES/KDLH IS SUPPORTING BETTER LES OVER FAR              
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. TOO MUCH SHEAR BTWN THE SFC AND 4KFT PER KDLH VAD            
WIND PROFILE PREVENTED ORGRANIZED MESOLOW STRUCTURE OF LES.                     
SNOW THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE ERN FCST AREA WILL PULL OUT DURING THE             
EARLY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 1 INCH OR SO OF                     
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...FIRST CONCERN IS ONGOING LES               
ADVY FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER TONIGHT. 12Z NAM ACTUALLY HAD A NICE HANDLE            
ON THE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING AS               
FCST SOUNDING COMPARED QUITE WELL TO LATE MORNING TAMDAR SOUNDING               
FROM KSAW. AS IN THE LATEST AND PREVIOUS GFS/NAM RUNS AND LATEST                
RUC...COLUMN WILL BE MOISTENING (AND IT HAS RECENTLY) AS WRN FRINGE             
OF MOISTURE SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LWR MI SYSTEM EXPANDS TO CNTRL               
UPPER MI...AND 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -12C. IN ADDITION...                  
SHORTWAVE OVER MN WILL REACH WRN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...PROVIDING              
FORCING TO HELP RAISE INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 7KFT. AT THE                  
LOW-LEVELS...NICE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED BY                 
RUC13/NAM ACROSS SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE SHORELINE OF NCNTRL                
UPPER MI (WINDS BACK NRLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND MORE WRLY OVER THE             
LAND). SO...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LES               
AND WILL HOLD ONTO ADVYS FOR MARQUETTE/ALGER TONIGHT. AREAS THAT                
RECEIVE ADVY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO WHERE               
ANY DOMINANT BANDS DEVELOP...AND THERE MAY BE ONLY ONE OF THEM.                 
TO THE W...CONVERGENCE AREA OVER FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS TO BECOME             
ORIENTED IN A WNW-ESE BAND AND LIFT NE THRU THE NIGHT. PROGRESSION              
SHOULD REMAIN FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADVY FOR                  
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON AS CONVERGENCE SHIFTS TO THE KEWEENAW LATE.                   
EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FCST SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN. IN THE BIG                   
PICTURE...MIDLEVEL LOW/TROFFING TO W WILL ONLY DRIFT E WITH AXIS                
REACHING UPPER MI SUN. END RESULT WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT              
LEAST WEAK FORCING AS INDICATED BY 850-500MB QVECTOR PROGS...AND                
THERE WILL BE A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AS SHOWN BY NAM/GFS FCST                  
SOUNDINGS. MEANWHILE...850MB TEMPS LOWER FROM AROUND -12C SAT TO                
-16C BY LATE SUN AFTN. SO THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY            
FOR LES EVEN WITHOUT SYNOPTIC FORCING. WHAT HAPPENS AT THE                      
LOW-LEVELS IS THE BIG PROBLEM. CONVERGENCE THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS             
DISCUSSED ABOVE (OVER SCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WNW/ESE BAND OVER            
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR) WILL SHARPEN OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF              
THE LAKE UNDER SYNOPTIC FORCING. ANY MESOLOWS THAT DEVELOP ALONG                
THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL ALTER THE CONVERGENCE PATTERN AND THUS               
SHIFT LES WHICH SHOULD BECOME QUITE INTENSE DUE TO ALL OF THE                   
FAVORABLE FACTORS THAT ARE COMING TOGETHER. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS                 
SUPPORT SOME TYPE OF MESOLOW FORMING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER WRN            
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MESOLOW PRODUCED BY THE LOCALLY RUN HI RESOLUTION            
WRF CAUSES THE ERN PART OF THE CONVERGENCE BAND TO LIFT N OF THE                
KEWEENAW SAT. REGIONAL CANADIAN LEANS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.                     
RUC13/NAM DO NOT LIFT CONVERGENCE COMPLETELY N OF THE KEWEENAW. WITH            
LIGHT WINDS ALL THE WAY THRU 700MB FROM SAT AFTN THRU MUCH OF SAT               
NIGHT...THERE WON'T BE MUCH TO FORCE MOVEMENT OF LES ONSHORE. SO IT             
MAY TURN OUT THAT LES EVENTUALLY JUST STAYS MOSTLY OUT OVER THE                 
WATER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ZONE OR WRAPPED MOSTLY                  
AROUND WHATEVER MESOLOW OR MESOLOWS DEVELOP. WOULD LIKE TO MAKE A               
DECISION NOW ON THE LES WATCH FOR THE KEWEENAW SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT              
THERE IS FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN GOING WITH              
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A WATCH RIGHT NOW. WITH DEEP MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC              
FORCING/PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND NICE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD MOTION            
AND FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS...VERY HVY LES WILL NO                
DOUBT OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW THE WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN.              
HEAVY LES IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT S AND IMPACT THE REST              
OF WRN AND NORTHERN UPPER MI LATER SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING AS                
WINDS SHIFT N. HEADLINES WILL CERTAINLY BE NEEDED...BUT HOW FAST THE            
MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVES WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW                    
AMOUNTS.                                                                        
TUE THRU FRI...TYPICAL EARLY DEC WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THRU THE MUCH            
OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH NEARLY CONTINUOUS...BUT SHIFTING LES...AND              
TEMPS MOSTLY BLO NORMAL AS GENERAL MEAN TROF POSITION WILL BE OVER              
ERN NAMERICA. AT THE VERY END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND FARTHER DOWN              
THE ROAD...LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR TO ZONAL FLOW WITH                
PACIFIC AIRMASSES ONCE AGAIN BECOMING DOMINANT. EARLY IN THE                    
PERIOD...00Z ECWMF/CANADIAN/UKMET/06Z GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON            
A SHORTWAVE MOVING E OF THE UPPER LAKES TUE. GFS IS A BIT SLOWER                
ALOFT AND WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW EXITING THE UPPER LAKES. THIS             
IS A RECENT TREND WITH THE GFS...SO IT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED...BUT             
GIVEN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE LOOK OF THE OTHER MODELS...WILL TAKE A               
COMPROMISE APPROACH. SO...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DECENT LES IN             
THE NW (POSSIBLY BRIEF NRLY) FLOW BEHIND SYSTEM INTO AT LEAST THE               
FIRST PART OF TUE DURING PERIOD OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 850MB TEMPS               
DIVING TO AROUND -17C. MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOLLOWS WED THRU FRI               
WITH CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVES MAINTAINING ERN              
TROF. PER HPC DISCUSSSION...WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS              
MORE NRN STREAM DOMINANCE WITH ERN TROF PERSISTENCE. EVEN SO...                 
SHORTWAVE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE IN PCPN FCST                
LOW...IN PARTICULAR WHERE LES WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF                 
LES...ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE. NEXT SHORTWAVE              
IS TENTATIVELY EXPECTED TO PASS EARLY WED...BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF            
LES IN NW FLOW (AND AGAIN POSSIBLY BRIEF NRLY FLOW) AS ANOTHER                  
SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TOWARD -20C.               
HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE SE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THU AND SLIP E               
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FRI. WOULD THUS EXPECT A LIGHTER PURE LES                
REGIME TO PREVAIL THU FOR NW FLOW AREAS WITH A DIMINISHING TREND                
INTO FRI AS WINDS BACK WRLY AND TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE.                        
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LES ADVY MIZ005-006 TONIGHT.                                                   
 LES WATCH MIZ001-003 SAT-SAT NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
340 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY                                              
POTENT WINTER STORM IS EXITING THE REGION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WRAP             
AROUND MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...HOWEVER...            
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD                 
ACROSS THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM (850-500 MB OMEGA OF                
-5 TO -10 UBAR/SEC) AND THIS SHOULD PROVIDE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST              
OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THIS WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH THE LOW                
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS AROUND THE TRI CITIES THEY RECEIVED SOME                
SNOW COVER ALONG WITH UPSTREAM SNOW COVER YET THE REMAINDER OF THE              
CWA LITTLE IF ANY SNOW COVER TO FIND. THOUGHTS ARE FOR MIDDLE 20S               
FOR AN AVERAGE YET ISOLATED LOWER NUMBERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                   
COUNTIES WHERE FAVORABLE SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING              
AND WHERE SNOW COVER IS IN PLACE.                                               
A MINOR SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH             
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING AND ALLOWING FOR PTSUNNY                 
CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HAVE            
A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE MIDDLE 30S GIVEN UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES                
THIS AFTERNOON WERE HAVING A TOUGH TIME CLIMBING OUT OF THE 20S...SO            
SOME LAKE MODIFICATION WOULD SUPPORT LOWER 30S FOR THE CWA                      
(EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR DETROIT WITH MIDDLE 30S).                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT AS               
PART OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND BRING WITH IT              
A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. MOISTURE WILL BE                    
SHALLOW WITH THIS FRONT ACCORDING TO THE 12Z MODELS BUT THE AIR                 
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET A BOOST OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN               
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT WILL THEN REMAIN                    
SHALLOW THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH                        
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CANADA LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.               
THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCED AND WILL                 
SPREAD NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN                   
THUMB, FOCUSED BY THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD, BUT WITH ACCUMULATION               
OF AN INCH OR LESS. EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF SE               
MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME.                                                      
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM IS A POSSIBLE CLIPPER FOR MONDAY.             
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SOLUTION FROM THE EURO AND                    
CANADIAN MODELS REGARDING THIS FEATURE; BUT TIMING, STRENGTH, AND               
MOISTURE CONTENT UNCERTAINTY ARGUE AGAINST ANYTHING MORE THAN A                 
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.                                
THE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC              
INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST DURING THE MIDDLE AND END OF            
NEXT WEEK. SMALLER SCALE UPPER WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN              
AND HELP MAINTAIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES, KEEPING            
OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GIVING US A                
SHOT AT SOME SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES               
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE WHICH SUPPORTS            
OUR GOING FORECAST WITH SOME MENTION OF SNOW EACH DAY THROUGH                   
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, THE BEST CHANCE OF A DRY DAY WILL BE ON                
WEDNESDAY, BUT RATHER THAN REMOVE ANY CHANCE OF SNOW WE WILL JUST               
TAPER BACK THE POP FOR NOW.                                                     
THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OF THE LONG WAVE UPPER            
RIDGE MOVING CLOSER TO US BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD HELP MORE FIRMLY                
RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SNOW HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND BUT WITH                    
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1224 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ALMOST A DOUBLE SURFACE LOW...WITH               
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR PTK AND ANOTHER AREA NEAR ERIE PA. THE             
LOW NEAR PTK IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE                
HURON BY 21Z. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.               
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS              
THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN                              
INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE PRECIPITATION                
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 21Z...THEN QUICKLY                
COME TO AN END AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.                           
FIRST ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE            
WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK              
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE DETROIT AREA. GUSTS ARE                  
ALREADY APPROACHING 40 KNOTS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. AS THE LOW PULLS             
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...FNT AND MBS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER                 
WINDS AFTER 21Z.                                                                
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BASED ON LOW LEVEL            
THICKNESSES PER BOTH RUC AND NAM12...MBS SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE               
OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND 19Z...WITH FNT AND DTW/DET CHANGING OVER                
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT MBS THROUGH             
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN                
THE SNOW. SNOWFALL AROUND FNT AND DETROIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON                  
WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND MAY JUST BRIEFLY REDUCE                   
VISIBILITIES TO THE IFR CATEGORY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...ALL OPEN WATERS...NEARSHORE WATERS                  
             FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW                   
             UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                                               
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                             
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                    
     LOW WATER ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1224 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ALMOST A DOUBLE SURFACE LOW...WITH               
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR PTK AND ANOTHER AREA NEAR ERIE PA. THE             
LOW NEAR PTK IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN BASIN OF LAKE                
HURON BY 21Z. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.               
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS              
THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND ACROSS NORTHERN                              
INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE PRECIPITATION                
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 21Z...THEN QUICKLY                
COME TO AN END AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.                           
FIRST ISSUE WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE            
WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK              
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE DETROIT AREA. GUSTS ARE                  
ALREADY APPROACHING 40 KNOTS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. AS THE LOW PULLS             
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...FNT AND MBS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGER                 
WINDS AFTER 21Z.                                                                
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BASED ON LOW LEVEL            
THICKNESSES PER BOTH RUC AND NAM12...MBS SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE               
OVER TO ALL SNOW AROUND 19Z...WITH FNT AND DTW/DET CHANGING OVER                
BETWEEN 19 AND 21Z. SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT AT MBS THROUGH             
THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN                
THE SNOW. SNOWFALL AROUND FNT AND DETROIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON                  
WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND MAY JUST BRIEFLY REDUCE                   
VISIBILITIES TO THE IFR CATEGORY.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1055 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO                   
ADVANCE NORTH. SURFACE LOW AT 15Z WAS OVER KPTK AND UPPER LOW WAS               
NOT THAT FAR BEHIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE                   
TODAY WITH A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/NAM ARE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST               
OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MIDLAND COUNTY AS THEY                 
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH LATENT              
HEAT RELEASE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN AND THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR                
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY WILL KEEP THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAKENING DEFORMATION WILL                
PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH OF M59                  
BEFORE ENDING NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL                 
LIKELY BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.                       
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE WINDS AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS HAS              
THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE MID 40KT RANGE. ACROSS INDIANA WIND               
GUSTS WERE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MIXING               
LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL...HENCE THE WIND ADVISORY                  
HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IF                
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN THE WIND HEADLINES.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM                                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
WINTER STORM IS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO                
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST              
CHALLENGE...AND ALREADY SEE THE NEED TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOME ON              
ALONG INTERSTATE 69 AND UP INTO PARTS OF THE THUMB AS MUCH OF THE               
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EARLY THIS                
MORNING. THE WARNING STILL LOOKS OK AS ANY REDUCTION IN SNOW TOTALS             
WILL BE MADE UP FOR IN ICING POTENTIAL. AREAS NEAR/WEST OF SAGINAW              
STILL APPEAR IN A GOOD SPOT TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH                
STILL EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW AT TIMES.                                  
WILL BE WATCHING PART OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LIVINGSTON AND OAKLAND             
COUNTIES...AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 ARE LEADING TO GLAZING ALREADY.            
TO THIS POINT...THE ROADS ARE FINE...BUT OTHER SURFACES AREA ICING              
OVER PRETTY QUICKLY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT COME UP IN THE NEXT FEW             
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...AT LEAST UNTIL SURFACE               
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.                           
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE               
SURFACE LOW NOW HEADING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA DEEPENS AS            
IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL ENSURE RAIN            
FROM THE CITY OF DETROIT SOUTH...WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN BETWEEN             
M 59 AND I 69...AND SNOW/SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THAT.            
THIS ALL CHANGES TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN                  
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. BY THAT TIME...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING.                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO BE STAYING A WHILE AS THE POLAR JET IS                  
FORECASTED TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...DIURNAL EFFECTS...AND THE TIMING OF              
SHORTWAVES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT NOT TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW               
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER                 
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE...-39 C AT 500 MB/-16 C AT 850 MB. BOTH THE 00Z               
NAM/GFS INDICATING MEASURABLE QPF EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN             
AS WELL AS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH WITH            
HIGH 850-700 MB RH INDICATED. BUMPED POPS UP 10 PERCENT                         
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THEY NEED TO              
BE ADJUSTED UP FURTHER AS WE PIN DOWN THE TIMING. THE 00Z UKMET IS              
THE FASTEST WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST.                                     
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WILL PUT THE MOST STOCK IN THE              
00Z EUROPEAN...WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE             
BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE              
RIDGING ON TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR CONTINUITY.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL...WITH            
ANY GIVEN NIGHT BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER DEPENDENT ON LACK OF SKY              
COVER AND POSSIBLE SNOW ON THE GROUND.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-          
     MIZ083 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                                                  
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCL
     SOUTH HALF UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                                            
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                      
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DG                                                                 
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1055 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WINTER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO                   
ADVANCE NORTH. SURFACE LOW AT 15Z WAS OVER KPTK AND UPPER LOW WAS               
NOT THAT FAR BEHIND. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE                   
TODAY WITH A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. LATEST RUC/NAM ARE IN GOOD               
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST               
OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MIDLAND COUNTY AS THEY                 
REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WITH LATENT              
HEAT RELEASE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN AND THE INFLUX OF WARMER AIR                
FROM THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON/SAGINAW BAY WILL KEEP THE                    
BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.                             
AS UPPER LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH...WEAKENING DEFORMATION WILL                
PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH OF M59                  
BEFORE ENDING NEAR 00Z. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL                 
LIKELY BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ADDITIONAL HEADLINES.                       
THE MAIN SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE WINDS AS MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS HAS              
THE POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO THE MID 40KT RANGE. ACROSS INDIANA WIND               
GUSTS WERE APPROACHING 50 KNOTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MIXING               
LAYER HEIGHTS SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL...HENCE THE WIND ADVISORY                  
HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IF                
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED IN THE WIND HEADLINES.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 620 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD UP THROUGH THE AREA THIS                
MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORM SYSTEM              
OVER ILLINOIS TRACKS NORTHEAST RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF THE AREA. KDTW             
AND KDET WILL REMAIN MAINLY RAIN...WITH -SN MIXING IN LATE IN THE               
AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. KFNT/KMBS WILL SEE A MIX              
OF -SN/PL/FZRA THIS MORNING...GOING TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. OF              
THE TWO...KFNT WILL SEE MORE FZRA/RA...KMBS MORE SNOW/PL THIS AM.               
CEILINGS WILL BOB BETWEEN IFR/MVFR...BUT TREND HIGHER DURING THE DAY            
AS DRY SLOT RACES NORTH INTO THE AREA. WRAPAROUND AROUND MOISTURE BY            
LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE MVFR WITH LITTLE MORE THAN               
FLURRIES BY 00Z AND BEYOND.                                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM                                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
WINTER STORM IS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO                
SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE THE BIGGEST              
CHALLENGE...AND ALREADY SEE THE NEED TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS SOME ON              
ALONG INTERSTATE 69 AND UP INTO PARTS OF THE THUMB AS MUCH OF THE               
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN/RAIN EARLY THIS                
MORNING. THE WARNING STILL LOOKS OK AS ANY REDUCTION IN SNOW TOTALS             
WILL BE MADE UP FOR IN ICING POTENTIAL. AREAS NEAR/WEST OF SAGINAW              
STILL APPEAR IN A GOOD SPOT TO RECEIVE HEAVY SNOWFALL...ALTHOUGH                
STILL EXPECT A MIXTURE OF SLEET/SNOW AT TIMES.                                  
WILL BE WATCHING PART OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LIVINGSTON AND OAKLAND             
COUNTIES...AS TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 ARE LEADING TO GLAZING ALREADY.            
TO THIS POINT...THE ROADS ARE FINE...BUT OTHER SURFACES AREA ICING              
OVER PRETTY QUICKLY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT COME UP IN THE NEXT FEW             
HOURS...MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...AT LEAST UNTIL SURFACE               
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.                           
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE               
SURFACE LOW NOW HEADING THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA DEEPENS AS            
IT TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS WILL ENSURE RAIN            
FROM THE CITY OF DETROIT SOUTH...WITH A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION                
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN/RAIN BETWEEN             
M 59 AND I 69...AND SNOW/SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THAT.            
THIS ALL CHANGES TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN                  
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM. BY THAT TIME...THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF                
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WANING.                                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO BE STAYING A WHILE AS THE POLAR JET IS                  
FORECASTED TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
BETWEEN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...DIURNAL EFFECTS...AND THE TIMING OF              
SHORTWAVES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT NOT TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SNOW               
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR              
SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER                 
LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER              
LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE...-39 C AT 500 MB/-16 C AT 850 MB. BOTH THE 00Z               
NAM/GFS INDICATING MEASURABLE QPF EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN             
AS WELL AS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH WITH            
HIGH 850-700 MB RH INDICATED. BUMPED POPS UP 10 PERCENT                         
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THEY NEED TO              
BE ADJUSTED UP FURTHER AS WE PIN DOWN THE TIMING. THE 00Z UKMET IS              
THE FASTEST WITH THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST.                                     
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WILL PUT THE MOST STOCK IN THE              
00Z EUROPEAN...WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS RUN REALLY BEGINS TO DIVERGE             
BY TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS INDICATING WEAK SHORTWAVE              
RIDGING ON TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR CONTINUITY.                  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST BUST POTENTIAL...WITH            
ANY GIVEN NIGHT BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER DEPENDENT ON LACK OF SKY              
COVER AND POSSIBLE SNOW ON THE GROUND.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...WIND ADVISORY...MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-          
     MIZ083 UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.                                                  
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NORTH HALF GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE                 
WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY-SOUTH               
HALF- SOUTH HALF UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                                           
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING...LCZ460 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.                      
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING...LEZ444 UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
955 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MONITORING THE PATCHY FOG FORMING OVER THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER                   
SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. SO FAR THE FOG IS RATHER PATCHY AND              
SHALLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS                     
THICKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS SINCE 23Z AND             
IT HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO...RIGHT ON TOP OF THE             
DEEPER SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE COOLING OVER THE SNOW               
PACK AND THUS REDUCE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE                
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS FREEZING FOG MENTIONED IN THE                
COUNTIES WITH THE DEEP SNOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY AT THIS              
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE AN              
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONDITIONS DETERIORATE             
RAPIDLY.                                                                        
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
339 PM...                                                                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SNOWS A THICK BAND OF SNOW FROM THE TEXAS             
PANHANDLE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO             
THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREAS FREE OF SNOW. SNOW COVERED AREAS            
WERE NOT QUIT THAT LUCKY...RANGING THROUGH  THE 20S. SNOW PACK IS AT            
ITS THICKEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WITH TOTALS IN               
EXCESS OF 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED REPORTS UP TO 18 INCHES. A BIT                
MORE NATIONALLY...A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE                 
SHORTWAVE THAT BOUGHT OUR WINTER WEATHER LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY                
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
CAN BE SEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                    
MEANWHILE...STILL FARTHER WEST...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS RESIDING                
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...READYING ITSELF FOR LANDFALL THIS WEEKEND.            
THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SWING INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF              
THURSDAY NIGHTS SNOW STORM WILL PREVENT ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT            
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL HOWEVER PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR            
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...THUS DROPPING                     
AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND TURNING WINDS BACK              
TO THE NORTH.                                                                   
FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER              
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ACROSS              
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA I WILL BE UNDERCUTTING EVEN             
THE COLDEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS. PREVIOUS                
SHIFTS FORECAST OF LOW SINGLE DIGITS LOOK VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS             
FORECAST. LIKEWISE FOR THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS COME DOWN SOME FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR SURGES                
SOUTH. STILL...CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN SNOW COVERED                  
AREAS. SNOW FREE AREAS HOWEVER SHOULD FALL NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS.               
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH BE FREEZING FOG.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN FREE FALL TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR                        
SKIES...SLOWING DOWN ONLY AS THEY HIT THE DEWPOINT VALUE. WITH SUCH             
A THICK AND EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK PROVIDING MOISTURE WE COULD EASILY              
SATURATE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE FREEZE THE MOISTURE OUT             
AS FROST BEFORE WE GET THE FOG. HAVE OPTED TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING               
FOG AS A HEDGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE GET FOG OR NOT...SURFACES              
WILL BE SLICK TONIGHT AS ANY MELTED SNOW ON THE ROADS WILL REFREEZE.            
WILL ADJUST THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.             
A STOUT NORTH SURFACE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD               
MITIGATE THIS PROBLEM SUNDAY MORNING.                                           
THE COLD PUSH FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG. THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTER REGION             
BY MONDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY GET HIT ON THE CHIN WITH A FAST MOVING             
SHORTWAVE. THE NET RESULT FOR THE PLAINS IS A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY               
WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED               
THE TREND OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT            
NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS SOUTH WINDS WILL ADVECT OVER WHAT            
IS LEFT OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE             
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE AGGRESSIVELY ADJUSTED BASED ON WIND                
DIRECTION AND SNOW PACK CONDITIONS.                                             
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL                  
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED RIDGE WILL DIP INTO THE                   
PLAINS. SOME DISCREPANCY STILL EXIST IN HOW FAR INTO THE PLAINS IT              
WILL DIG. ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AS IT KEEPS THE WAVE MORE PROGRESSIVE              
AND SHEARS IT APART LESS THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY ANOTHER SHOT OF               
COLD AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE                    
FORECAST SOURCE REGION...NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...OF THE AIRMASS               
ARRIVING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TUMBLE FAR.               
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST DRY AS THE WAVE PASSES              
BY AS THE SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF IT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE             
RETURN FROM THE GULF CUTOFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE WEEK.                        
CUTTER                                                                          
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/350 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                                     
WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THE BACK EDGE OF THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE HEAVY SNOW BAND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 700 MB                
TROWAL AXIS AS DEPICTED IN THE RUC MODEL.  AS OF 930Z...THE BACK                
EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STRETCHED FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE...TO                
WARRENSBURG...TO NEVADA.  THE RUC 700MB THETA-E FIELDS INDICATE THE             
TROWAL AXIS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA ALMOST RIGHT AT 12Z.              
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAVY SNOW WARNING GOING FOR OUR              
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND ANY HEADLINES            
LATER INTO THE MORNING.  AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA MAY PICK UP              
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  CONSIDERED              
HOISTING A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER THE SNOW ENDS .HOWEVER...GUSTY               
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE STRONGER SURFACE                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.                                       
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE                 
TEMPERATURES...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.  IN THE             
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO COOL DOWN AREAS OVER THE             
SNOW PACK LEFT BEHIND BY THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.  THIS            
AFTERNOON...AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 10+ INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR                   
SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MIDDLE                  
20S...WHILE PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH MISSED THE STORM                  
SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 36 OR 37 DEGREES.  FOR TONIGHT...I UNDERCUT               
MOS GUIDANCE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ALONG THE DEEPER SNOWPACK.                 
SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY EVERYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW              
FROM THE STORM...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS LIKELY FROM MOUND                    
CITY...TO BUTLER...TO SEDALIA.  LOWS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS MAY                 
FLIRT WITH 1 OR 2 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.                                           
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD               
AIR TO THE REGION...BUT THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION              
AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD AS            
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -16 DEG C OVERSPREAD THE                 
REGION.  THIS COLD AIRMASS...AND THE LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL KEEP              
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.                                            
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
339 PM CST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SNOWS A THICK BAND OF SNOW FROM THE TEXAS             
PANHANDLE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO             
THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREAS FREE OF SNOW. SNOW COVERED AREAS            
WERE NOT QUIT THAT LUCKY...RANGING THROUGH  THE 20S. SNOW PACK IS AT            
ITS THICKEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WITH TOTALS IN               
EXCESS OF 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED REPORTS UP TO 18 INCHES. A BIT                
MORE NATIONALLY...A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE                 
SHORTWAVE THAT BOUGHT OUR WINTER WEATHER LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY                
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
CAN BE SEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                    
MEANWHILE...STILL FARTHER WEST...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS RESIDING                
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...READYING ITSELF FOR LANDFALL THIS WEEKEND.            
THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SWING INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF              
THURSDAY NIGHTS SNOW STORM WILL PREVENT ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT            
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL HOWEVER PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR            
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...THUS DROPPING                     
AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND TURNING WINDS BACK              
TO THE NORTH.                                                                   
FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER              
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ACROSS              
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA I WILL BE UNDERCUTTING EVEN             
THE COLDEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS. PREVIOUS                
SHIFTS FORECAST OF LOW SINGLE DIGITS LOOK VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS             
FORECAST. LIKEWISE FOR THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS COME DOWN SOME FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR SURGES                
SOUTH. STILL...CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN SNOW COVERED                  
AREAS. SNOW FREE AREAS HOWEVER SHOULD FALL NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS.               
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH BE FREEZING FOG.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN FREE FALL TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR                        
SKIES...SLOWING DOWN ONLY AS THEY HIT THE DEWPOINT VALUE. WITH SUCH             
A THICK AND EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK PROVIDING MOISTURE WE COULD EASILY              
SATURATE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE FREEZE THE MOISTURE OUT             
AS FROST BEFORE WE GET THE FOG. HAVE OPTED TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING               
FOG AS A HEDGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE GET FOG OR NOT...SURFACES              
WILL BE SLICK TONIGHT AS ANY MELTED SNOW ON THE ROADS WILL REFREEZE.            
WILL ADJUST THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.             
A STOUT NORTH SURFACE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD               
MITIGATE THIS PROBLEM SUNDAY MORNING.                                           
THE COLD PUSH FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG. THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTER REGION             
BY MONDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY GET HIT ON THE CHIN WITH A FAST MOVING             
SHORTWAVE. THE NET RESULT FOR THE PLAINS IS A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY               
WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED               
THE TREND OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT            
NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS SOUTH WINDS WILL ADVECT OVER WHAT            
IS LEFT OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE             
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE AGGRESSIVELY ADJUSTED BASED ON WIND                
DIRECTION AND SNOW PACK CONDITIONS.                                             
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL                  
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED RIDGE WILL DIP INTO THE                   
PLAINS. SOME DISCREPANCY STILL EXIST IN HOW FAR INTO THE PLAINS IT              
WILL DIG. ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AS IT KEEPS THE WAVE MORE PROGRESSIVE              
AND SHEARS IT APART LESS THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY ANOTHER SHOT OF               
COLD AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE                    
FORECAST SOURCE REGION...NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...OF THE AIRMASS               
ARRIVING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TUMBLE FAR.               
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST DRY AS THE WAVE PASSES              
BY AS THE SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF IT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE             
RETURN FROM THE GULF CUTOFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE WEEK.                        
CUTTER                                                                          
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/350 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                                     
WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THE BACK EDGE OF THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE HEAVY SNOW BAND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 700 MB                
TROWAL AXIS AS DEPICTED IN THE RUC MODEL.  AS OF 930Z...THE BACK                
EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STRETCHED FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE...TO                
WARRENSBURG...TO NEVADA.  THE RUC 700MB THETA-E FIELDS INDICATE THE             
TROWAL AXIS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA ALMOST RIGHT AT 12Z.              
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAVY SNOW WARNING GOING FOR OUR              
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND ANY HEADLINES            
LATER INTO THE MORNING.  AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA MAY PICK UP              
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  CONSIDERED              
HOISTING A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER THE SNOW ENDS .HOWEVER...GUSTY               
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE STRONGER SURFACE                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.                                       
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE                 
TEMPERATURES...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.  IN THE             
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO COOL DOWN AREAS OVER THE             
SNOW PACK LEFT BEHIND BY THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.  THIS            
AFTERNOON...AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 10+ INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR                   
SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MIDDLE                  
20S...WHILE PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH MISSED THE STORM                  
SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 36 OR 37 DEGREES.  FOR TONIGHT...I UNDERCUT               
MOS GUIDANCE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ALONG THE DEEPER SNOWPACK.                 
SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY EVERYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW              
FROM THE STORM...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS LIKELY FROM MOUND                    
CITY...TO BUTLER...TO SEDALIA.  LOWS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS MAY                 
FLIRT WITH 1 OR 2 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.                                           
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD               
AIR TO THE REGION...BUT THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION              
AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD AS            
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -16 DEG C OVERSPREAD THE                 
REGION.  THIS COLD AIRMASS...AND THE LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL KEEP              
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.                                            
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
849 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
NW WIND SHIFT DEFINING THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST MADE ITS WAY INTO            
THE TRIAD. THIS WIND SHIFT LAGS THE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY BOUNDARY             
COURTESY OF STRONG DOWNWARD MIXING OF DRIER ALOFT...WHICH HAS                   
ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 30S AND UPPER 20S IN THE                
WESTERN PIEDMONT. SKIES ARE SKC ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIND GUSTS           
FADING FROM WEST TO EAST AS MIXING LESSENS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME                 
HEATING AND AS SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI                   
VALLEY. LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FROPA...CLEARING THE                
EASTERN MOST CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.                                             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TONIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS. WINDS WILL NO               
DOUBT WILL BE KEY. THE RUC HAS WINDS DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 5KTS             
BY 09Z WHICH COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO                 
DROP BELOW FORECAST LOWS...ESPECIALLY FROM RDU WEST. WILL OPEN UP               
THE TEMPERATURE TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE. OTHERWISE...WILL FRESHEN UP             
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WITH PASSING FROPA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 545 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA              
FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. UPDATE TO INCLUDE AMENDMENTS            
TO DIGITAL FORECAST PRODUCTS ONLY. ZONE PACKAGE UPDATE WILL BE                  
ADJUSTED LATER IN THE EVENING.                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 220 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DEEP 990 MB SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF            
LAKE ERIE/HURON. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PA SOUTH                
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH PORTIONS OF WV/VA/TN/GA. ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S (NW) TO UPPER 70S (SE)             
AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S. WINDS WERE GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH            
AT 30 TO 40 MPH.                                                                
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
BACK EDGE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE             
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG AND            
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 18Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS                
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...ADVECTING OUT OF            
THE CWA BY 21Z-00Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO             
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND FROPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE FRONT.             
RUC SFC THETA-E FORECAST DEPICTS THE COLDER...DRIER POST-FRONTAL                
AIRMASS CROSSING WEST-EAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z TONIGHT.             
BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO              
MID 40S (SE). SATURDAY...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE                     
BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE                
AFTERNOON AS GFS/NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING             
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (ABOVE 700 MB) AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BLEND            
OF GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S (NW) TO LOWER 60S (SE). -VINCENT                                      
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
MID LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT...SHARPENING TROUGH THAT               
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TAIL END OF                 
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS MID ATLC REGION LATE SUNDAY                  
INTO MONDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE                  
CAROLINAS COAST ON OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
ADDITIONALLY BOTH (GFS/NAM) MODELS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE/QPF                  
FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FIRST HALF OF                
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP REMAIN MAINLY OVER                
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS ATLC INFLOW FAIRLY WEAK AND                    
BRIEF. AT THIS POINT DONT EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH NORTHWEST                      
PIEDMONT. SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF CONFINING LOW POPS                  
MAINLY TO SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS...HIGHEST EASTERN THIRD.                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD WITH                  
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER HIS EVENING. INT-GSO...TIL 21Z                 
BKN LAYERS 4-6 KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. AFTER 21Z THRU 23Z                       
SCATTERED CLOUDS 5KFT. RDU-FAY-RWI...BKN LAYERS 3-5KFT VSBYS                    
UNRESTRICTED. TIL 21Z CIGS 2-3KFT VSBYS 3-5 MILES IN BRIEFLY                    
LOWERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 21Z THROUGH 23Z SCT TO BKN                 
LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES               
AFTER 23Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 40               
MPH TIL 21Z. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 21Z TO 10 TO 15 MPH...BRIEF                
GUSTS TO 25 MPH TIL 00Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
545 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE WESTERN CWA              
FASTER THAN CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. UPDATE TO INCLUDE AMENDMENTS            
TO DIGITAL FORECAST PRODUCTS ONLY. ZONE PACKAGE UPDATE WILL BE                  
ADJUSTED LATER IN THE EVENING.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 220 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006)                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DEEP 990 MB SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF            
LAKE ERIE/HURON. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PA SOUTH                
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH PORTIONS OF WV/VA/TN/GA. ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S (NW) TO UPPER 70S (SE)             
AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S. WINDS WERE GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH            
AT 30 TO 40 MPH.                                                                
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                        
BACK EDGE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE             
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG AND            
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 18Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS                
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...ADVECTING OUT OF            
THE CWA BY 21Z-00Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO             
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND FROPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE FRONT.             
RUC SFC THETA-E FORECAST DEPICTS THE COLDER...DRIER POST-FRONTAL                
AIRMASS CROSSING WEST-EAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z TONIGHT.             
BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO              
MID 40S (SE). SATURDAY...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE                     
BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE                
AFTERNOON AS GFS/NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING             
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (ABOVE 700 MB) AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BLEND            
OF GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S (NW) TO LOWER 60S (SE). -VINCENT                                      
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                    
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
MID LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT...SHARPENING TROUGH THAT               
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TAIL END OF                 
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS MID ATLC REGION LATE SUNDAY                  
INTO MONDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE                  
CAROLINAS COAST ON OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
ADDITIONALLY BOTH (GFS/NAM) MODELS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE/QPF                  
FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FIRST HALF OF                
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP REMAIN MAINLY OVER                
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS ATLC INFLOW FAIRLY WEAK AND                    
BRIEF. AT THIS POINT DONT EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH NORTHWEST                      
PIEDMONT. SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF CONFINING LOW POPS                  
MAINLY TO SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS...HIGHEST EASTERN THIRD.                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD WITH                  
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH LATER HIS EVENING. INT-GSO...TIL 21Z                 
BKN LAYERS 4-6 KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. AFTER 21Z THRU 23Z                       
SCATTERED CLOUDS 5KFT. RDU-FAY-RWI...BKN LAYERS 3-5KFT VSBYS                    
UNRESTRICTED. TIL 21Z CIGS 2-3KFT VSBYS 3-5 MILES IN BRIEFLY                    
LOWERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 21Z THROUGH 23Z SCT TO BKN                 
LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES               
AFTER 23Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 40               
MPH TIL 21Z. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 21Z TO 10 TO 15 MPH...BRIEF                
GUSTS TO 25 MPH TIL 00Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOCKLEAR                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
220 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DEEP 990 MB SFC LOW IN VICINITY OF            
LAKE ERIE/HURON. STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN PA SOUTH                
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH PORTIONS OF WV/VA/TN/GA. ACROSS                  
CENTRAL NC...TEMPS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S (NW) TO UPPER 70S (SE)             
AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 60S. WINDS WERE GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH            
AT 30 TO 40 MPH.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
BACK EDGE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE             
WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG AND            
JUST WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 18Z. EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS                
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NC TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST...ADVECTING OUT OF            
THE CWA BY 21Z-00Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO             
EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND FROPA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY                
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS BEHIND THE FRONT.             
RUC SFC THETA-E FORECAST DEPICTS THE COLDER...DRIER POST-FRONTAL                
AIRMASS CROSSING WEST-EAST THROUGH THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z-06Z TONIGHT.             
BLEND OF GUIDANCE GIVES LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S (NW) TO              
MID 40S (SE). SATURDAY...CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE                     
BEGINNING OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE                
AFTERNOON AS GFS/NAM TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING             
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE (ABOVE 700 MB) AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BLEND            
OF GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE                 
UPPER 50S (NW) TO LOWER 60S (SE). -VINCENT                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                   
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                          
MID LEVEL VORT DIVES SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT...SHARPENING TROUGH THAT               
WILL MOVE INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TAIL END OF                 
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS MID ATLC REGION LATE SUNDAY                  
INTO MONDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING OFF THE                  
CAROLINAS COAST ON OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                       
ADDITIONALLY BOTH (GFS/NAM) MODELS PUSHING DEEPER MOISTURE/QPF                  
FURTHER WESTWARD INTO CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FIRST HALF OF                
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER BEST SUPPORT FOR PRECIP REMAIN MAINLY OVER                
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS ATLC INFLOW FAIRLY WEAK AND                    
BRIEF. AT THIS POINT DONT EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH NORTHWEST                      
PIEDMONT. SO WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF CONFINING LOW POPS                  
MAINLY TO SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS...HIGHEST EASTERN THIRD.                      
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                        
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEK. COLD WITH                  
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TLATER HIS EVENING. INT-GSO...TIL 21Z                
BKN LAYERS 4-6 KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. AFTER 21Z THRU 23Z                       
SCATTERED CLOUDS 5KFT. RDU-FAY-RWI...BKN LAYERS 3-5KFT VSBYS                    
UNRESTRICTED. TIL 21Z CIGS 2-3KFT VSBYS 3-5 MILES IN BRIEFLY                    
LOWERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. AFTER 21Z THROUGH 23Z SCT TO BKN                 
LAYERS 4-6KFT VSBYS UNRESTRICTED. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES               
AFTER 23Z. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 40               
MPH TIL 21Z. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 21Z TO 10 TO 15 MPH...BRIEF                
GUSTS TO 25 MPH TIL 00Z.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
LONG TERM...RA                                                                  
AVIATION...RA                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1228 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEEP LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH                    
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS TAF SITES. SURFACE OBS ARE                      
GENERALLY SHOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 30 KTS WITH                  
GUSTS IN GENERAL ABOVE 40 KTS. KILN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED RAIN                  
SHOWERS AROUND KCMH AND KLCK AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE              
OTHER TAF SITES.                                                                
WILL KEEP THE TRENDS OF PRECIOUS FORECAST. WINDS WILL DIE OFF                   
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP AND DEEP MIXING IS              
CUT OFF. WILL CLEAR OUT CLOUDS AFTER 06Z WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.                
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                         
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED DEEP LOW FROM SOUTH BEND TO                    
CLEVELAND WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER REGION. OBS HAVE                   
SHOWN NUMEROUS OBS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND A FEW NEAR 50                     
KTS...SUCH AS KDAY FROM 1445Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS                 
BREAKS IN THE DRY SLOT. KILN RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS.              
WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS IN OUR FAR WEST OF A MIX.                             
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO GET RIDE OF HIGH POPS AND TO ADJUST TEMP                  
WORDING. THIS AFT EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW              
SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE WORST THROUGH 20Z TO 21Z WHEN                 
MIXING BEGINS TO END. LATEST NAM/RUC SHOWING 50 KTS THROUGH 18Z                 
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 21Z ACROSS THE NORTH.                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 837 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THRU CENTRAL OHIO                  
ATTM. CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST               
OF FA WITH DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SE IN AND SW OHIO. THEREFORE HAVE              
DROPPED ALL SEVERE/TORNADO WATCHES IN ILN/S FA. GRADIENT INCREASES              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS INDICATED AT 925MB. WITH                
MIXING EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. HAVE CONTD                 
HIGH WIND WARNING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU THE AFTN. REMAINDER OF              
THE FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH FALLING TEMPS AND SCTD RAIN SHOWERS                    
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWS WITH UPPER LOW EJECTING NE ACRS IN INTO SE               
LOWER MI THIS AFTN.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 656 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS                 
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NE...PCPN              
WILL SCATTERED. SW WINDS WILL GUST WILL BE NEAR/ABOVE 40 KTS AT                 
TIMES 16Z-23Z...DROPPING NEAR 20 KTS IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW                  
MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION.                                                      
GENERALLY...VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAIN       
MVFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN SCATTERING OUT SW TO NE. MVFR                           
VISIBILITIES WITH -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE                  
EARLY EVENING.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 532 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS                 
WITH A SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE               
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. WARM SECTOR IS                 
SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION              
WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN                   
EXCELLENT MIXING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH PARTICULARLY                 
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION                
WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. BUT SHOULD               
STILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND              
THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING PUSH               
OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 342 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006/                                             
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR ILN AREA. SUNDAY            
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN              
COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY COME                
INTO PLAY DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR                   
OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                    
TRAVELING NEAR THE GULF COAST MAY THROW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO             
VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT HPC GUIDANCE             
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BE COLDEST...WITH 1000-850MB            
THICKNESS OF 1236M INDICATED AT CVG.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-035-          
     042>046-051>056-060>065-074.                                               
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>073-            
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.            
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.          
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-073>075-        
     080.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1134 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ELONGATED DEEP LOW FROM SOUTH BEND TO                    
CLEVELAND WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER REGION. OBS HAVE                   
SHOWN NUMEROUS OBS WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND A FEW NEAR 50                     
KTS...SUCH AS KDAY FROM 1445Z. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS                 
BREAKS IN THE DRY SLOT. KILN RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS.              
WE HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS IN OUR FAR WEST OF A MIX.                             
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO GET RIDE OF HIGH POPS AND TO ADJUST TEMP                  
WORDING. THIS AFT EXPECTING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO TURN TO SNOW              
SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE WORST THROUGH 20Z TO 21Z WHEN                 
MIXING BEGINS TO END. LATEST NAM/RUC SHOWING 50 KTS THROUGH 18Z                 
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 21Z ACROSS THE NORTH.                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 837 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THRU CENTRAL OHIO                  
ATTM. CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS SHIFTED EAST               
OF FA WITH DRY SLOT WORKING INTO SE IN AND SW OHIO. THEREFORE HAVE              
DROPPED ALL SEVERE/TORNADO WATCHES IN ILN/S FA. GRADIENT INCREASES              
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS INDICATED AT 925MB. WITH                
MIXING EXPECT TO SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. HAVE CONTD                 
HIGH WIND WARNING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA THRU THE AFTN. REMAINDER OF              
THE FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH FALLING TEMPS AND SCTD RAIN SHOWERS                    
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWS WITH UPPER LOW EJECTING NE ACRS IN INTO SE               
LOWER MI THIS AFTN.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 656 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
THE SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER INDIANA THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS                 
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES NE...PCPN              
WILL SCATTERED. SW WINDS WILL GUST WILL BE NEAR/ABOVE 40 KTS AT                 
TIMES 16Z-23Z...DROPPING NEAR 20 KTS IN THE EVENING AS THE LOW                  
MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION.                                                      
GENERALLY...VFR CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAIN       
MVFR THROUGH 06Z...THEN SCATTERING OUT SW TO NE. MVFR                           
VISIBILITIES WITH -SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z AND THROUGH THE                  
EARLY EVENING.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 532 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS                 
WITH A SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. THE               
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST. WARM SECTOR IS                 
SPREADING NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION              
WILL OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN                   
EXCELLENT MIXING WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH PARTICULARLY                 
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION                
WILL COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. BUT SHOULD               
STILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND              
THEN DIMINISH BY EVENING.                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING PUSH               
OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY.                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 342 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006/                                             
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.            
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR ILN AREA. SUNDAY            
WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN              
COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY COME                
INTO PLAY DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR                   
OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE                    
TRAVELING NEAR THE GULF COAST MAY THROW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO             
VALLEY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL. UNDERCUT HPC GUIDANCE             
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO BE COLDEST...WITH 1000-850MB            
THICKNESS OF 1236M INDICATED AT CVG.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-034-              
     035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074.                                           
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ070>073-            
     077>082-088.                                                               
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ089>100.            
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-              
     059.                                                                       
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR INZ066-                
     073>075-080.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
644 PM EST DEC 1 2006                                                           
.AVIATION UPDATE /00Z-00Z/...RECENTLY AMENDED THE KCHS TAF TO                   
INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 03Z. SFC WINDS HAVE             
DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WINDS JUST OFF             
THE SFC ARE STILL HOWLING WITH 1000 FT WINDS OF 30-35 KT MEASURED ON            
THE DURING THE FIRST FEW MINUTES OF THE EVENING CHS SOUNDING. IN                
FACT A REPORT OF LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 1500 FT WAS                 
RECENTLY RECEIVED VIA A PIREP FROM THE JAMES ISLAND EXECUTIVE                   
AIRPORT /KJZI/. THE RISK FOR WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY 03Z            
AS A CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINAL AND THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE             
LLJ SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE LOW-LVL JET APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED               
THE KSAV TERMINAL BASED ON THE KCLX VWP AND 21Z RUC OUTPUT SO THE               
RISK FOR LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR THERE IS LOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE UPDATE...WE HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF DENSE SEA FOG              
OFF THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COAST OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THE LAST OF            
WHICH WAS IN CALIBOGUE SOUND OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF HILTON HEAD                
ISLAND. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR PATCHES OF DENSE SEA               
FOG TO DEVELOP WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO THAN LESS THAN 1/2 NM. THE                
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SC MIDLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL GA SHOULD            
BE OFF THE COAST BY 9 OR 10 PM...SO ANY RESIDUAL SEA FOG WILL BE                
PUSHED OUT TO SEA AS OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP.                                    
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT PATCHY DENSE            
SEA FOG AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 9 PM.            
AT THIS POINT...I DO NOT SEE THE NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY             
FOR ANY OF THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES OR THE ADJACENT PUBLIC ZONES              
GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND OVERALL LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE              
FOG.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SCZ045 UNTIL 11 PM.                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330-350-352-354-374.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ST                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
204 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                         
LATEST OBS SHOW THAT SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BETWEEN 15               
AND 25 KTS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO 35 KTS. VWP SHOWS WINDS TO 5000            
FT ARE DOWN TO 30 KTS...AND RUC SHOWS WINDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE              
INTO THE EVENING. THUS WILL ALLOW ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES             
TO EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.                                  
ADVECTION OF COLD DRY AIR INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE                           
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. THE              
SURFACE HIGH THAT BUILDS OVER THE AREA ORIGINATES FROM THE TEXAS                
AREA...SO TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S ON SATURDAY. A PLUME OF               
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN WV IMAGERY WILL               
BRING SOME CIRRUS TO THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND                  
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING AND            
STRENGTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT BRINGS A SURGE OF COLD AIR ON                  
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH...AND THUS             
IS FASTER TO BRING THE COLD AIR IN. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER SURFACE                
HIGH AND THE EXTENT OF THE COLD SURGE IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE                
NAM. AT THIS TIME A COMPROMISE SOLUTION SEEMS BEST...AND WILL HAVE              
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE...A BIT BELOW GFS MOS.                    
MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIP WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE             
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                     
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. DRY               
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. A WEAK LOW                 
PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON             
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA FROM CANADA WILL BRING               
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ON THURSDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  35  55  32  56 /   0   0   0   0                       
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  30  52  33  53 /   0   0   0   0            
OAK RIDGE, TN  31  51  32  53 /   0   0   0   0                                 
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  27  52  28  51 /   0   0   0  10                        
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DGS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1047 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE WILL DECREASE WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO             
A WIND ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY/NORTHERN PLATEAU AREAS. THE               
HIGHEST WINDS CAME AS THE SHOWERS PAST THROUGH EARLIER THIS                     
MORNING...WITH MEASURED GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH IN SOME SPOTS AND                    
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. AN LSR WILL BE SENT                 
SHORTLY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THESE REPORTS.                                     
THE FRONT IS LOCATED FROM LEE CO. VA TO AROUND CHEROKEE CO. NC AT               
THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE                   
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE             
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. VALLEY              
LOCATIONS WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50                 
MPH. WINDS ALOFT DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PER THE RUC                     
MODEL...SO GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN TO UNDER 40 MPH BY 4 PM. THUS THE                
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE WARNING/ADVISORY WAS CHANGED TO 4 PM.                    
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                   
     CHEROKEE...AND CLAY.                                                       
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                   
     ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...EAST                 
     POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...HAMILTON...JEFFERSON...KNOX...                 
     LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...                   
     NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST COCKE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...                
     ROANE...SCOTT TN...SEQUATCHIE...UNION...AND WEST POLK.                     
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...                
     HAWKINS...JOHNSON...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...                 
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST                      
     GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...UNICOI...AND                        
     WASHINGTON TN.                                                             
VA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:               
     LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...AND WISE.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DGS/TD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
506 PM PST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY A DRYING                   
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SNOWS               
TODAY OVER MAINLY THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT                 
WILL TURN TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                              
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A BUILDING UPPER                 
LEVEL RIDGE OVERNIGHT. RUC ANALYSIS OF 21Z 250MB WINDS DEPICT A                 
120KT JET STREAK DIVING THROUGH CENTRAL WASHINGTON. SOME WIDELY                 
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEING DETECTED EAST OF THE JET              
CORE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE INSTABILITY DRIVING THESE SNOW                   
SHOWERS ARE IN THE LAYER BELOW 700MB...AND AS TEMPERATURES AT THIS              
LEVEL WARM OVERNIGHT...THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL WANE.               
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND THE                 
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MOUNTAINS...BUT ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
WILL BE VERY LOW.                                                               
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...                
THE CONCERN FOR FOG AND AIR STAGNATION ARISES. WFOS SPOKANE AND                 
PENDLETON ALONG WITH STATE AND LOCAL AGENCIES AGREED TO HOLD OFF                
ON THE ISSUANCE OF AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR THE WEEKEND.                  
PARTICULATE LEVELS THIS MORNING WERE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT              
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MODERATE                     
LEVELS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY WILL LIKELY                
BE GIVEN STRONG CONSIDERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON THE                
STRENGTH OF THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SYSTEM. /GKOCH                             
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INLAND                    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LIGHT              
FLURRY FALLING OUT OF THE STRATUS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG AND             
STRATUS POTENTIAL. WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND MODELS INDICATING              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STICKING AROUND...PLUS VERY LITTLE MIXING...THINK            
THE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE             
WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON                
WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AND THE SUN MAY PEAK OUT...BUT IT WILL               
BE SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME            
OF THE YEAR...AND WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...NOT A LOT OF                    
VARIATION BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. MONDAY IS WHERE                
MODELS START TO DIVERGE. MODELS HAVE DIFFERING TIMING OF THE NEXT               
TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN FASTER                 
THAN THE GFS/UKMET. GIVEN THERE IS A STRONG RIDGE THAT THE TROUGH               
MUST ENCOUNTER...WOULD TEND TO THINK THE SLOWER OF THE MODELS                   
IS CORRECT. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME ONLY LOWERED VALLEY CHANCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCE...OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANGES MADE.                 
/KOCH                                                                           
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS LOOKED                
PRETTY REASONABLE AGAIN TODAY. TWO MAIN AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER              
OVER THE PACIFIC CAN BE RELATIVELY WELL RECOGNIZED FROM THE WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY...A WEAKENING NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE BETWEEN 140W           
AND 150W OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...AND ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW               
NEAR 45N/160W. MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST             
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH QUICKLY LIFTING THE SOUTHERN WAVE NORTH AHEAD               
OF THE CLOSED LOW...GRADUALLY BROADENING THE WAVE AND WEAKENING ITS             
AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THE ONLY REAL ISSUES OF NOTE WITH THIS SEEM                
TO BE ITS TIMING AND HOW MUCH WAVE DEAMPLIFICATION OCCURS AS THIS               
WAVE REACHES THE TOP OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY PARKED NEAR                
THE WEST COAST. THE CURRENT GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH                    
WEAKENING THE SHORT WAVE AND ALSO 500 MB LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE               
OF DAYS THAN YESTERDAY'S RUN. IT IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WITH              
THE MOVEMENT OF BOTH FEATURES THAN THE 12Z ECMWF OR 12Z CANADIAN NOT            
TO MENTION ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT THE ONLY                
THING THE MODELS DIVERGE ON TODAY. WITH REALLY NO INDICATION ON                 
ANY MODEL EXCEPT THE CANADIAN THAT THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO               
SUCCESSFULLY CREST THE RIDGE IN AN COHERE FASHION...BELIEVE LITTLE              
WILL RESULT OVER THE CWA FROM THIS WAVE. MORE DISCREPANCIES OCCUR               
WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL. WHILE THERE IS A RELATIVE AMOUNT OF                
CERTAINTY THAT THE MAIN IMPETUS OF LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW WILL                
STAY OFF SHORE...MODELS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE INDICATED A              
GOOD CHUNK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD COME ON SHORE LATE MONDAY.                
THE GFS AND CANADIAN CONTINUE TO DO THIS...ALBEIT IN A VERY                     
WEAKENED FASHION. THE NEW ECMWF HAS COMPLETELY BACKED OFF FROM                  
THIS SOLUTION. THE 500 MB WAVE THAT PIVOTS SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW              
OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST HARDLY MAKES IT INTO THE AREA...AND              
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE HEIGHT LINES...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF               
THERE WAS ANY SIGNIFICANT LIFT PRESENT ANYWHERE IN THE CWA IF THIS              
SOLUTION PANS OUT. FOR THESE REASONS AND BECAUSE IT FLOWS MORE                  
FROM CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...HAVE FOLLOWED SOMEWHAT                
OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z CANADIAN BUT MAINLY               
IGNORING WHAT THE CANADIAN DOES WITH THE FIRST WAVE. BELIEVE MORE               
RUNS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL NEED TO BE SEEN BEFORE ANY                     
CONFIDENCE IN WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT CAN TRULY                
BE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT A SLOWER MOVING SOLUTION              
WITH THE FIRST WAVE MAY LEAD TO PHASING WITH THE SECOND AND                     
STRONGER WAVE. AFTER THESE SYSTEMS CLEAR THE AREA AROUND                        
TUESDAY...GOOD ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE                  
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. WITH RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY               
LAYER NEVER DROPPING BELOW 90 PERCENT BELOW 925 MB PER THE GFS AND              
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS BUILDING IN...BELIEVE LOW                
STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG MAY BE ISSUES GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.                    
MOS TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA                 
SHOULD TOP FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CLOUDS                
AND COLD AIR IN PLACE UNDER THE STRONG INVERSIONS...FIND THIS                   
HIGHLY UNLIKELY. HAVE THEREFORE UNDERCUT MOS HIGHS THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD AND STUCK WITHIN REACH OF THE MEX LOWS FOR THE MOST PART.                
/FRIES                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO STRATUS AND FOG WILL                    
CONTINUE AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS BELOW 4K FT                     
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE N-NW FLOW               
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE BLUE MTS AND THE CENTRAL AND SRN ID                    
PANHANDLE. IMPROVING CONDS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 18Z-00Z ESPECIALLY               
IN THE BASIN...KGEG/COE AREA AND KPUW AREA. RFOX.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        17  21  15  24  19  28 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                 
COEUR D'ALENE  15  23  16  26  18  28 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                 
PULLMAN        20  26  20  28  23  31 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                 
LEWISTON       23  30  25  31  25  34 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                 
COLVILLE        8  20   9  24  15  27 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                 
SANDPOINT      14  23  12  25  15  27 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                 
KELLOGG        19  22  18  26  19  27 /  10   0   0   0   0  20                 
MOSES LAKE     16  24  15  26  18  29 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                 
WENATCHEE      18  24  16  26  20  28 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                 
OMAK           13  22  11  24  19  28 /   0   0   0   0   0  20                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
330 AM EST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RUC ANALYSIS NOW SHOW MUCH OF THE NATION                 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONE WAVE TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING               
SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST.              
POTENT UPPER LOW THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THE WINTRY                        
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY THE PAST 48                 
HOURS IS NOW WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF              
THE TROUGH INTO QUEBEC. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE                   
BAHAMAS HAS BEEN PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE             
CONTINENTAL TROUGH.                                                             
AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS TO THE                 
REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW STALLING OUT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST AND                  
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE GENERALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR            
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN BIG BEND WHERE SOME MID/HIGH                  
CLOUDS LINGER CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD ADVECTION IS                 
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES                   
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND             
NORTHERN AREAS AND INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS OUR                        
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. THIS REPRESENTS UP TO A 30F 24 HR TEMP CHANGE               
FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR EXPERIENCED AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WHEN               
SOME STATIONS FAILED TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
FLORIDA PENINSULA...TAKING THE BULK OF THE CLOUDCOVER WITH IT.                  
HOWEVER...SOME HIGHER LEVEL CIRRUS IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE             
DAY ACROSS THE REGION TO FILTER THE SUN. AS WE HEAD INTO THE                    
AFTERNOON HOURS...A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH                
WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTH. THIS WILL HAVE             
MOST INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND ZONES WHERE SKIES                 
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH EVEN THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A               
SHOWER OR TWO LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT THIS BOUNDARY AND THE                    
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAKE EVEN MORE PROGRESS NORTH. THE CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS WILL ALSO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST. HAVE ONLY LEFT AREAS WEST              
OF PANAMA CITY UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA WITH SILENT TEN POPS                
OVERNIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREAS RANGES FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO HIGH              
END CHANCE POPS DOWN TOWARD TAYLOR...DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES.              
NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAIN...BUT STILL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IS NOT            
OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH DECENT SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED IN PLACES.             
COLDEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND RAIN              
UP INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WHERE UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE                 
COMMON. WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARD CROSS CITY WITH               
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S COMMON.                                                    
THE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE SHOWER                    
COVERAGE LIKELY AT ITS PEAK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AT THIS TIME              
EVEN OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE A QUICK SPRINKLE OR             
SHOWER. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE            
NATION ON SUNDAY PASSING NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY             
NIGHT. COLD AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS UPPER             
LEVEL FEATURE. AS THE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED            
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT IT SHOULD HELP TO START THE            
BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST AGAIN WITH THE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS                   
COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST AS WELL. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL FINISH             
THE JOB AND PUSH THE OLD BOUNDARY AND ANY MOISTURE/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED            
WITH IT WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.                
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST            
AS THIS HIGH BUILDS IN. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TO FALL INTO               
THE 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH TO 40S SOUTH AND EAST AND THEN REBOUND              
ONLY INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY (DESPITE PLENTY OF                       
SUNSHINE).                                                                      
QUICK NOTE...LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF                  
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. AS            
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH VERY DRY                    
AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD             
BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING                 
CONDITIONS. IF GUIDANCE DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEN MANY                 
LOCATIONS TOWARD SUNRISE ON TUESDAY MAY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE                 
UPPER 20S...WITH NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS INTO THE MIDDLE 20S.                 
EVEN AREAS VERY NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH             
THE FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS.                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO             
REBOUND QUICKLY UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND                 
LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THROUGH               
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE EXITING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.                   
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A             
WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN SLOWLY              
PROGRESSING EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE LATEST RUN OF THE            
GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS VERY WEAK LOW NOW LOOKS             
TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION MOSTLY FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART            
OF NEXT SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND DETAILS ARE              
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR                   
THURSDAY IN THE GRIDS AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE            
LIKELY TO DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE.                           
IF THIS GULF WAVE DOES SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THEN THE                    
COMBINATION OF SHOWERS AND ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR                     
FROM THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN MUCH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAN              
IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.                 
UNTIL THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE CERTAIN...THERE IS LITTLE             
REASON TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM GUIDANCE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF COMPLEX AND VARIABLE TAFS OVER THE                        
REGION...THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WILL SEE QUITE A BREAK AT ALL OF THE                
SITES...WITH NOTHING WORSE THAN VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE                 
STALLED OUT COLD FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH...HIGH                
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS            
AND SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY SUNDAY.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE            
TO OUR NORTHWEST HAS KEPT THE WINDS UP A BIT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE               
COASTAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WINDS. SEAS HAVE BEEN              
SURPRISINGLY HIGH AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS BUT HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN             
IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHOULD SEE THE WINDS DROP OFF A BIT THIS                 
AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING               
IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS FALL BELOW                   
CAUTION LEVELS TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY TO OUR               
SOUTH COME BACK NORTH AND WEAKENS THE GRADIENT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE            
THEN PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH GUSTY               
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS            
APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY            
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED FOR SEVERAL                 
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA              
PANHANDLE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACROSS THE                  
REGION FOR FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS HIGH IS            
EXPECTED TO BRING WITH IT SOME VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR AND RED FLAG              
CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE MET BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON                  
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  66  47  66  43  59 /  05  20  30  10  05                           
PANAMA CITY  64  48  65  43  58 /  05  20  20  10  05                           
DOTHAN       63  40  65  36  56 /  05  10  20  05  05                           
ALBANY       65  42  64  37  57 /  05  10  20  05  05                           
VALDOSTA     66  51  65  43  58 /  10  30  30  10  05                           
CROSS CITY   71  56  69  49  63 /  20  40  40  20  10                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CST TO 5 PM CST                      
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING THE                     
COUNTIES OF CALHOUN...JACKSON...WALTON...WASHINGTON AND HOLMES.                 
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GOULD                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 AM EST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV THAT            
BROUGHT A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SN TO THE ERN ZNS YDAY HEADING QUICKLY            
ENE. CYC NLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF ASSOCIATED SFC LO DELIVERING SOME              
LES TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG. DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED            
WITH SHRTWV MOVING THRU WI LAST EVNG ENHANCED THE LES A BIT...BUT               
RADAR TRENDS SUG ACTIVITIY ON THE WANE FOR NOW WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/            
H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/WEAK SFC RDGING FM MN. PRESENT LES APPEARS TO BE             
MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W IN THE LLVL CNVGC ZN BTWN NE WINDS OVER              
THE KEWEENAW AND LAND BREEZE WSW FLOW NOTED AT IWD AS WELL AS IN                
ALGER COUNTY WHERE NNE FLOW OVER LK SUP CONVERGING WITH WNW LAND                
BREEZE FLOW OBSVD FM MQT-ESC. 01Z TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW SHOWED INVRN               
BASE ARND H8 WITH BASE TEMP NR -17C ABV MOIST SUB INVRN LYR. FARTHER            
W...FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV NOTED ON IR STLT IMAGERY MOVING INTO NW            
MN. ASSOCIATED SFC LO JUST S OF LK WINNIPEG AT 04Z WITH ATTENDANT               
FAIRLY SHARP COLD FNT EXTENDING S ACRS WRN MN. NW WIND GUSTS AOA 30             
MPH BEHIND THIS BNDRY. ALTHOUGH PWAT FAIRLY LO AT 0.18 INCH...00Z               
BIS SDNG IS RELATIVELY MOIST THRU THE ENTIRE TROP TO H3 AND SHOWS               
INVRN BASE ARND H75 WITH TEMP THERE -17C INDICATING A DEEP LYR WITH             
FVRBL SN GROWTH TEMPS.                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES TRENDS/AMTS/HEADLINES.                  
FOR TDAY...LARGER SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV TO              
THE W MOVING E INTO THE UPR GRT LKS WITH BAND OF ASSOCIATED DPVA/               
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING THE FA. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVL FLOW              
WL BACK INTO EARLY SAT WITH THE APRCH OF THIS SYS. SO ONGOING LES               
OVER THE W AND NCNTRL SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS WINDS OVER             
LAND TURN SW. WL CANX MQT ADVY AS LES OUT OF THE COUNTY AS OF 08Z               
BUT PERSIST THE ALGER HEADLINE THRU THE MRNG. THE BIG QUESTION IS               
WHERE POTENTIALLY HVY LES IN AREA OF ENHANCED LLVL CNVGC WL SETUP               
LATER THIS MRNG INTO TNGT. CERTAINLY THE UPSTREAM 00Z BIS SNDG HINTS            
THAT SGNFT LES COULD FALL GIVEN FVRBL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DEEP            
INSTABILITY/SN GROWTH. GFS/NAM/ UKMET ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT                     
DEPICTING SHARP LLVL CNVGC SETTING UP ACRS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA               
WITH LK ENHANCED SFC TROF HELPING TO FOCUS THE LLVL CNVGC. THE CNDN             
MODEL IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR BUT SHOWS THE FOCUSED H95 CNVGC SETTING UP            
OVER JUST KEWEENAW COUNTY. THE 00Z RUC13 AND 12Z HI RES LOCAL MODEL             
ON THE OTHER HAND HINTS AT DVLPMNT OF MESOLO OVER WRN LK SUP THAT               
ENHANCES THE LLVL SW FLOW ACRS THE WRN ZNS SO THAT FOCUSED CNVGC IS             
FARTHER N OUT OVER THE OPEN LAKE. SINCE THE LLVL FLOW ATTM AT                   
PILM4/ROAM4/P59 IS A STEADY NNE WITH RUC13 SHOWING PRES RISES UP TO             
2MB/3HRS OVER ONTARIO ALL DAY... PREFER TO FOLLOW THE LARGER SCALE              
MODELS WITH FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC FARTHER S ACRS THE KEWEENAW. GIVEN               
POTENTIAL FOR IMPRESSIVE DEEP INSTABILITY/FVRBL SN GROWTH...HAVE                
OPTED TO UPGRADE WATCH TO WRNG FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW                    
COUNTIES. LES CHART SUGS 6"/ 12HRS... WHICH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE WITH            
SUCH FOCUSED LLVL CNVGC. WL INCRS POPS A BIT ACRS SRN SCHOOLCRAFT               
COUNTY DOWNSTREAM OF LK MI WITH EXPECTATION FOR SOME LES OFF LK MI              
FOR A TIME THIS WHILE THE FLOW OFF THE WATER IS UNIDIRECTIONAL SW.              
HOWEVER INITIALLY DRY LLVLS AND STEADILY SHIFTING WINDS WL LIMIT                
PSBL ACCUMULATION THERE. ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SOME SCT -SHSN OVER               
THE REST OF THE FA WITH PASSAGE OF HEALTHY DYNAMICS...SW FLOW NOT               
FVRBL FOR ANY ADVY SN ELSEWHERE.                                                
ONCE SHRTWV TRACKS TO THE E TNGT...LLVL FLOW FCST TO TURN TO THE N              
AND SHIFT AXIS OF SHARPER LLVL CNVGC TO THE S. SAME DISAGREEMENT ON             
THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THE WSHFT/TROF...BUT MOST GUIDANCE EXCEPT                
RUC13 SHOWS FLOW TURNING TO AN UNFVRBL N OVER THE KEWEENAW BY 06Z.              
BUT KEPT WRNG GOING THRU 09Z TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SLOWER RUC13                  
SCENARIO AND TO GIVE MAX TIME TO VERIFY WRNG IN CASE LLVL CNVGC                 
FOCUSED FARTHER N INITIALLY. ALSO OPTED TO ISSUE LES WATCH FOR                  
GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON AND BARAGA/MQT COUNTIES AFT 03Z TNGT TO ACCOUNT               
FOR SAME FVRBL SN GROWTH/INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHARP CYC NNE FLOW              
DOWN THE LENGTH OF WRN LK SUP/INTO THE NCNTRL U.P. AND BEEFY LLVL               
CNVGC FCST BTWN THE STRENGTHENING NLY FLOW AND ANTICIPATED WLY LAND             
BREEZE FLOW AHEAD OF WSHFT. ALTHOUGH TROF PROGGED TO PUSH TO THE S              
AND CYC FLOW FCST TO WEAKEN A BIT AND DEEPER MSTR PROGGED TO EXIT ON            
SUN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTN AS LLVL FLOW BACKS SLOWLY AND SHRTWV                 
EXITS TO THE E...MAINTAINED WATCH THRU THE DAY WITH PERSISTENT COLD             
NLY FLOW AND ALL MODELS SHOWING LINGERING H95 CNVGC (SHIFTING A BIT             
WITH THE WINDS). EXTENDED WATCH FOR BARAGA ONLY UNTIL 18Z AS FLOW               
PROGGED TO BCM A MORE UNFVRBL NNW IN THE AFTN. ALSO TOYED WITH                  
POSTING WATCH FOR ALGER COUNTY ESPECIALLY FOR SUN...BUT WITH FLOW               
INITIALLY MORE NNE AT TIME OF SHARPEST LLVL CNVGC/DEEPER LLVL MSTR.             
THINK ALGER WL END UP WITH ADVY SN FALL ONCE WINDS SHIFT MORE NNW IN            
THE AFTN AND LLVL CNVGC WANES A BIT/DEEPER MSTR DEPARTS.                        
AS NEXT SHRTWV APRCHS SUN NGT AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW...LES WL            
DIMINISH. ALTHOUGH GFS/UKMET SHOW FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DPVA/MODEST                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHRTWV IN NW             
FLOW ALF...INITIAL DRYNESS OF AIRMASS WL LIMIT SN CHCS. SO                      
MAINTAINED ONLY SCHC POPS AWAY FM LK MOISTENING.                                
COORDINATED WITH APX/DLH/GRB.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LES ADVY MIZ006 UNTIL 17Z TDAY.                                                
 LES WRNG MIZ001-003 14Z TDAY-06Z SUN.                                          
 LES WATCH MIZ002-005-009 03Z-24Z SUN.                                          
 LES WATCH MIZ004 03Z-18Z SUN.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
343 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION                                                                     
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS                
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER THE SNOW PACK FROM YESTERDAY'S              
WINTER STORM.  OUR CURRENT GRIDS CONTAIN PATCHY FREEZING FOG ACROSS             
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 15Z. A                  
DECENT SWATH OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING IN FROM THE                  
WEST.  WITH THIS IN MIND I MAY SCALE BACK THE FOG IN THE GRIDS BUT              
KEEP SOME IN ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS REGION IS CLOSE TO             
THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND MAY EXPERIENCE CLEARING FOR A TIME.             
THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK         
WILL BE TEMPERATURES...AS A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION            
CHANCES MINIMAL AT BEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A CHALLENGE THE NEXT             
FEW DAYS...AS THE EFFECTS OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND THE             
LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED.  ONCE THING THAT IS               
FOR CERTAIN...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE                
REGION.  A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST            
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUNDAY. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE                
COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR AREAS WITHOUT SNOW COVER...AND UNDERCUT                 
GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE SNOW PACK AREAS.  GENERALLY                
KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF AN OLATHE TO                     
KIRKSVILLE LINE.  WENT WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST                          
MISSOURI...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY BECOMING STEADY OR SLIGHTLY                 
DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN BEHIND             
THE FRONT.  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS                      
LIMITED...SO THE DRY GRIDS LOOK GOOD WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.                 
THERE SHOULD BE SINGLE DIGITS LOWS ACROSS THE SNOW PACK TONIGHT AS              
LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...AND ONCE AGAIN CUT GUIDANCE VALUES BY            
SEVERAL DEGREES IN THESE AREAS.  IN ADDITION...A COLD AIRMASS BEHIND            
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TO               
DIP INTO THE LOWER TEENS.                                                       
SUNDAY WILL BE LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE 7 DAY PERIOD AS -12             
TO -14 DEG C 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES              
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 30 DEGREE MARK...AND MUCH OF THE AREA                
WILL ONLY HIT THE MIDDLE 20S.  BY MONDAY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW              
DEVELOPS...BRINGING A WARMER AIRMASS WHICH MAY ALLOW THE NON-SNOW               
COVER AREAS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.  STILL              
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE OF LINGERING SNOW COVER ACROSS                   
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THEREFORE...I TEMPERED THE            
WARM UP SOMEWHAT...AND KEPT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 30S.                        
SAW                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION / 955 PM CST FRI DEC 1/...                                     
MONITORING THE PATCHY FOG FORMING OVER THE DEEP SNOWPACK OVER                   
SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. SO FAR THE FOG IS RATHER PATCHY AND              
SHALLOW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS                     
THICKENED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS SINCE 23Z AND             
IT HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL MO...RIGHT ON TOP OF THE             
DEEPER SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE COOLING OVER THE SNOW               
PACK AND THUS REDUCE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE                
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY HAS FREEZING FOG MENTIONED IN THE                
COUNTIES WITH THE DEEP SNOW SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY AT THIS              
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND IT IS POSSIBLE AN              
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT SHOULD CONDITIONS DETERIORATE             
RAPIDLY.                                                                        
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
339 PM...                                                                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SNOWS A THICK BAND OF SNOW FROM THE TEXAS             
PANHANDLE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES. WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE HAVE HELPED TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO             
THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON IN THE AREAS FREE OF SNOW. SNOW COVERED AREAS            
WERE NOT QUIT THAT LUCKY...RANGING THROUGH  THE 20S. SNOW PACK IS AT            
ITS THICKEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES WITH TOTALS IN               
EXCESS OF 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED REPORTS UP TO 18 INCHES. A BIT                
MORE NATIONALLY...A BROAD TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE                 
SHORTWAVE THAT BOUGHT OUR WINTER WEATHER LAST NIGHT IS CURRENTLY                
LIFTING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. FARTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE            
CAN BE SEEN MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                    
MEANWHILE...STILL FARTHER WEST...A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE IS RESIDING                
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...READYING ITSELF FOR LANDFALL THIS WEEKEND.            
THE SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SWING INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES THIS WEEKEND...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF              
THURSDAY NIGHTS SNOW STORM WILL PREVENT ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT            
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL HOWEVER PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR            
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...THUS DROPPING                     
AFTERNOON HIGHS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND TURNING WINDS BACK              
TO THE NORTH.                                                                   
FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY THE                 
OVERNIGHT LOWS. NEAR CLOUDLESS SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER              
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ACROSS              
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA I WILL BE UNDERCUTTING EVEN             
THE COLDEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE SNOW COVERED AREAS. PREVIOUS                
SHIFTS FORECAST OF LOW SINGLE DIGITS LOOK VERY REASONABLE ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST TIER OF COUNTIES...SO HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TONIGHTS             
FORECAST. LIKEWISE FOR THE LOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING...GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS COME DOWN SOME FOR SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR SURGES                
SOUTH. STILL...CONTINUED UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE IN SNOW COVERED                  
AREAS. SNOW FREE AREAS HOWEVER SHOULD FALL NEAR GUIDANCE NUMBERS.               
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH BE FREEZING FOG.                 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN FREE FALL TONIGHT WITH THE CLEAR                        
SKIES...SLOWING DOWN ONLY AS THEY HIT THE DEWPOINT VALUE. WITH SUCH             
A THICK AND EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK PROVIDING MOISTURE WE COULD EASILY              
SATURATE. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE FREEZE THE MOISTURE OUT             
AS FROST BEFORE WE GET THE FOG. HAVE OPTED TO ADD PATCHY FREEZING               
FOG AS A HEDGE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER WE GET FOG OR NOT...SURFACES              
WILL BE SLICK TONIGHT AS ANY MELTED SNOW ON THE ROADS WILL REFREEZE.            
WILL ADJUST THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.             
A STOUT NORTH SURFACE WIND SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD               
MITIGATE THIS PROBLEM SUNDAY MORNING.                                           
THE COLD PUSH FROM THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEEKEND SHOULD NOT LAST               
LONG. THE EAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE WESTER REGION             
BY MONDAY...AND WILL QUICKLY GET HIT ON THE CHIN WITH A FAST MOVING             
SHORTWAVE. THE NET RESULT FOR THE PLAINS IS A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY               
WINDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HAVE CONTINUED               
THE TREND OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES UP FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT            
NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS SOUTH WINDS WILL ADVECT OVER WHAT            
IS LEFT OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THESE             
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE AGGRESSIVELY ADJUSTED BASED ON WIND                
DIRECTION AND SNOW PACK CONDITIONS.                                             
FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL                  
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE THAT CRESTED RIDGE WILL DIP INTO THE                   
PLAINS. SOME DISCREPANCY STILL EXIST IN HOW FAR INTO THE PLAINS IT              
WILL DIG. ECMWF LOOKS BETTER AS IT KEEPS THE WAVE MORE PROGRESSIVE              
AND SHEARS IT APART LESS THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY ANOTHER SHOT OF               
COLD AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE                    
FORECAST SOURCE REGION...NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...OF THE AIRMASS               
ARRIVING WITH THE SHORTWAVE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TUMBLE FAR.               
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE KEPT THE GOING FORECAST DRY AS THE WAVE PASSES              
BY AS THE SURFACE HIGH AHEAD OF IT SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE             
RETURN FROM THE GULF CUTOFF UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE WEEK.                        
CUTTER                                                                          
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/350 AM CST FRI DEC 1 2006/                                                     
WINTER STORM IS GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THE BACK EDGE OF THE                    
DEFORMATION ZONE HEAVY SNOW BAND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 700 MB                
TROWAL AXIS AS DEPICTED IN THE RUC MODEL.  AS OF 930Z...THE BACK                
EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STRETCHED FROM NEAR KIRKSVILLE...TO                
WARRENSBURG...TO NEVADA.  THE RUC 700MB THETA-E FIELDS INDICATE THE             
TROWAL AXIS WILL BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA ALMOST RIGHT AT 12Z.              
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAVY SNOW WARNING GOING FOR OUR              
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z...BUT WILL NOT EXTEND ANY HEADLINES            
LATER INTO THE MORNING.  AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA MAY PICK UP              
ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.  CONSIDERED              
HOISTING A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE            
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER THE SNOW ENDS .HOWEVER...GUSTY               
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY AS THE STRONGER SURFACE                    
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.                                       
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE                 
TEMPERATURES...AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL.  IN THE             
TEMPERATURE GRIDS...AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO COOL DOWN AREAS OVER THE             
SNOW PACK LEFT BEHIND BY THE FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON.  THIS            
AFTERNOON...AREAS WHICH RECEIVED 10+ INCHES OF SNOW ALONG OUR                   
SOUTHERN BORDER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE OUT OF THE MIDDLE                  
20S...WHILE PARTS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHICH MISSED THE STORM                  
SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 36 OR 37 DEGREES.  FOR TONIGHT...I UNDERCUT               
MOS GUIDANCE IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES ALONG THE DEEPER SNOWPACK.                 
SINGLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY EVERYWHERE THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW              
FROM THE STORM...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS LIKELY FROM MOUND                    
CITY...TO BUTLER...TO SEDALIA.  LOWS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS MAY                 
FLIRT WITH 1 OR 2 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.                                           
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD               
AIR TO THE REGION...BUT THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ANY PRECIPITATION              
AS MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD AS            
850MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -16 DEG C OVERSPREAD THE                 
REGION.  THIS COLD AIRMASS...AND THE LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL KEEP              
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.                                            
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
930 PM MST FRI DEC 1 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE WEAK SYSTEM TO CLIP NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS             
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM A STRONG              
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS                
THIS EVENING PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING             
ALONG BACKSIDE OF THIS LONGWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL ID WILL PUSH SOUTH              
THROUGH UT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE SEEN AN                  
INCREASE IN RETURNS ACROSS THE GSL THIS EVENING AS WAVE APPROACHES.             
LAKE-700MB TEMP DIFFERENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WEAK                      
INSTABILITY /-14C OBSERVED THIS EVENING AT KSLC AND LAKE TEMP NEAR              
4C/...HOWEVER 00Z KSLC SOUNDING INDICATES LAYER OF INSTABILITY                  
LIKELY QUITE SHALLOW DUE TO INVERSION ABOVE 600MB. 00Z RUC ANALYSIS             
INDICATES 500MB BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST                 
UT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY              
SATURDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE DEPTH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS GSL...AND             
PERHAPS SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED SHOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS TOOELE              
COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MAY SEE AN INCREASE              
IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN            
UT. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO ADD MENTION OF FLURRIES OR            
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WASATCH FRONT...AS WELL AS RAISED POPS ACROSS                 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN UT. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT             
WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE                  
WASATCH FRONT.                                                                  
700MB TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL NEAR -17C SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE                 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SOUTH AND MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION                  
SPREADS ACROSS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG                
VALLEY INVERSIONS...WITH MODELS KEEPING SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE                  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A                
RESULT EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING AIR STAGNATION ACROSS WASATCH FRONT             
EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS AT KSLC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7000 FT                   
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL             
REMAIN THAT LOW INTO THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A 20                  
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...BUT IF THIS              
OCCURS CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN                                                                
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...              
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
600 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES...                                          
335 AM CST                                                                      
WITH FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON NOW WELL OUT OF THE                 
PICTURE STAGE RIGHT...FOCUS SHIFTS TO BROAD UPPER TROUGHING OVER                
MAJORITY OF CONUS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MAINLY TEMP TRENDS AS                 
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF VARYING AMPLITUDE ROTATE THOUGH                 
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.                   
EFFECTS OF A FOOT OR SO OF NEW SNOW COVER OVER WESTERN HALF OF                  
FORECAST AREA ALSO A SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERATION FOR TEMP FORECAST.               
VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING FROM              
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. THIS WAVE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY...WITH MAIN EFFECT BEING SOME MID/HIGH                 
CLOUDINESS MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 285 K ISENTROPIC SFC              
FORECASTS FROM GFS INDICATE SOME MODEST UPGLIDE ACROSS THE AREA                 
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE THIS               
AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONGEST NET ISENTROPIC OMEGA AND LOWEST                    
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS REMAIN NORTH OF THE WI BORDER.                   
RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS DENOTED IN MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS THUS            
MAINLY ONLY SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AFTER              
SUNNY START. SHORT PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF            
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...THOUGH               
SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT               
TEMPS. READINGS IN SINGLE DIGITS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES OVER DEEPEST             
SNOW COVER THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO            
OVERCOME...ALONG WITH REDUCTION IN ALBEDO AND LONG FETCH OF SNOW                
COVER TO LIMIT TEMP CLIMB. MODEL 950 HPA TEMPS -2C TO -4C WOULD                 
SUGGEST TEMPS 36 TO 39 DEG F OR SO...WHICH AGREE NICELY WITH SFC                
PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FROM KFSD AREA WHICH WAS AROUND 37 FRI...HOWEVER            
BASED ON OUR DEEP SNOW COVER HAVE CUT FORECAST MAXES BACK ABOUT 10              
DEGREES TO MID/UPR 20S WEST...WHILE KEEPING CLOSER TO MID 30S                   
SOUTHEAST WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW COVER EXISTS.                                 
SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH                
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT VERY                
EVIDENT IN CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS...WITH SFC DEW POINT TEMPS CURRENTLY            
IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG/BEHIND BOUNDARY ACROSS                      
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN AT 08 UTC. SUBSIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL CAA BEHIND                
FRONT TO RESULT IN SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL OVERNIGHT...WITH 950              
HPA TEMPS FALLING TO -11C OR SO OVER NCNTRL IL BY 12Z SUNDAY.                   
COLD/DRY AIR...CLR/PTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS SHOULD                
RESULT IF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS SNOW COVER...AND AGAIN              
CALLS FOR SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE TEMPS INTO SINGLE                 
DIGITS AGAIN ESPECIALLY WESTERN 1/2 OF CWA. THIS ASSUMING AT LEAST              
SOME PATCHY CLOUDS AND 5 MPH WIND...BUT IF SKIES CLEAR AND WIND GOES            
CALM THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. 950 HPA TEMPS -8/-10C SUNDAY AS               
LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALOFT SUGGEST CONTINUED COLD                
CONDITIONS...TEMPS IN LOW-MID 20S...THOUGH WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD             
COVER. SOME WEAK MID LEVEL OMEGA NOTED IN MODEL TSECTS...THOUGH                 
GIVEN SUCH DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR                   
PRECIP. SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING/PLACEMENT ISSUES AMONG MODELS BY 48             
HRS/00Z MON WITH UPPER TROUGH POSITION WITH GFS/GEM AND UKMET OVER              
IL...WHILE NAM LAGS BY NEARLY 300 MI. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED GFS                  
DEPICTION GIVEN SUPPORT OF OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. ANOTHER SHEARED                 
WAVE...WEAK SFC TROUGH AND REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES                    
MONDAY...MAINTAINING SIMILAR TEMPS TO SUNDAY.                                   
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES BEYOND DAY 3...WITH SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK            
SHORT WAVES AFFECTING MAINLY UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER TROUGH             
GRADUALLY SHIFTS A BIT TO THE EAST THOUGH...WITH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY             
OF ARCTIC AIR/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN                
PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK. PERHAPS BEST CHANCE FOR                
SOME LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS LATE TUES AS GFS/CANADIAN GEM ARE SIMILAR             
IN TAKING FAST MOVING PACIFIC WAVE ACROSS NRN PLAINS WITH WEAK SFC              
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHT              
WAA QPF BY EARLY WED MORNING. CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH WITH TIMING              
OF THESE FEATURES OUT AT DAYS 4/5...BUT HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF                    
FLURRIES TUES NIGHT.                                                            
LITTLE CHANGE TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST OTHER THAN FOR SOME TWEAKS IN            
THE INTEREST OF COLLABORATIVE IMPROVEMENT TO GRIDS.                             
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
600 AM CST                                                                      
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS TERMINALS DURING THIS             
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ON WINDS TODAY AS                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.                                                    
LATEST MSAS DATA FROM 11Z INDICATES FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM             
EXTREME SERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. MAIN SYNOPTIC                   
FEATURE THIS MORNING IS BROAD UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS              
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS                
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASTWARD THROUGH            
THE DAY. LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM WOOD LAKE MINNESOTA SUGGESTS THIS            
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL              
MINNESOTA. THIS VORT MAX SHOULD SWING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST                  
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WHICH MAY ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AS IT             
CONTINUES TO TRACK THROUGH EASTERN IOWA THIS MORNING. NOT MANY                  
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 12Z TAFS IN COMPARISON TO THE 06Z ISSUANCE             
IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY MOVE UP                  
TIMING ON WIND TRANSITION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE            
RFD TO A 280-300 DIRECTION BY 22Z...AND AT REMAINDER OF TERMINALS IN            
THE 00Z-01Z TIME FRAME. WITH MAIN UPPER FORCING LIFTING NORTHEAST               
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TODAY...MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY BEING                   
REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE              
TERMINALS. MAY SEE LOW COVERAGE DIURNAL CU FORM...BUT NOTHING OF                
OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.                                                       
OTHER QUESTION TODAY WILL BE CONCERNING WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN RECENT               
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE FAVORED RUC IDEA IN TERMS OF LOW                
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH A MORE SHALLOW PRE-FRONTAL MIXED              
LAYER. WRF/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z RUNS INDICATED POTENTIAL               
FOR GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KTS OR SO BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOW              
WITH CONCERN THAT MIXING HEIGHTS ARE TOO HIGH. WINDS SHOULD DROP                
BACK TO AROUND 5 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.                      
MARSILI                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVSRY INDIANA NEARSHORE THIS MORNING.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
523 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATED ZFP TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG                 
THIS MORNING ACRS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL COUNTIES. AREA SFC               
OBS ARE NOW SHOWING 1/2 MILE VSBY AT PLAINVIEW AND LUBBOCK. FOG                 
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 16Z OR SO AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.             
HOWEVER...LATEST WRF AND RUC MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS                  
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN A                 
CHILLY DECEMBER DAY. SGE                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006/                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INTERESTING               
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A RATHER STRONG VORT MAX CURRENTLY DIVING            
SOUTH THROUGH THE WASATCH MOUNTAIN RANGE MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO                  
TONIGHT. FIRST HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWFA WILL             
LIKELY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING            
AS RH VALUES ARE NEAR SATURATION. RECENT LOOPS OF THE 11-3.9 MICRON             
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE ALREADY DEPICTING EITHER FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS            
BEGINNING TO FORM FROM NEAR TULIA TO FLOYDADA. THE WRF MODEL                    
CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING OVER MUCH OF            
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE. COUPLED WITH THE NEXT             
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS...HIGHS TODAY WILL                  
REMAIN IN THE 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WITH               
LWR-MID 40S SOUTH. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH BY                
EARLY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.                    
FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE                  
DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO ON THE HEELS OF A STRONG 100 KT JET MAX. AS             
THIS VORT MAX NEARS...ENOUGH LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN                  
GENERATING LIGHT SNOW ACRS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT                   
PLAINS. FOR THE LUBBOCK CWA...THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS TO BE MORE OF            
A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO AS PRIMARILY THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE               
SATURATED. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW AS TEMPS              
NEAR THE CLOUD TOPS WILL BE NEAR -12 TO -14 C. ANY AMOUNTS ARE                  
EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH NO ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ONGOING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION                  
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK AS POSITIVELY TILTED                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WRF/NAM                    
INDICATING A SATURATED LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO ABOVE 700 MB              
WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WINDS. VERY LITTLE LIFT IN SATURATED LAYER               
HOWEVER. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.                
SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING WEST OF TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH            
CLOUD COVER HOLDING ON INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND VERY COLD LOWER TO              
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SHOULD SEE HIGHS SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE               
30S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME                  
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
BACK TO FLAT NW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH MODERATING              
TEMPERATURES. LOOKS A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING LATE IN THE WEEK AS               
MODELS ARE STILL BRINGING A SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES              
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ALSO...                  
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN SOUTHERN STREAM               
FROM BAJA E/NE INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AS CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE                
PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION...WE MAY SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO            
GENERATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE                  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY            
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS BEHIND FRONT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA        34  17  34  16  46 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
TULIA         36  18  33  18  47 /  10  20  10   0   0                          
PLAINVIEW     36  20  33  20  47 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
LEVELLAND     39  20  36  24  49 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
LUBBOCK       38  21  35  24  48 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
BROWNFIELD    42  23  39  23  51 /  10  20  20   0   0                          
CHILDRESS     39  22  37  23  48 /   0  20  10  10  10                          
SPUR          40  24  36  24  51 /   0  10  20   0   0                          
ASPERMONT     45  26  38  26  52 /   0  10  20   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
21/06                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
226 PM MST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)                                                            
AFTER AN EARLY AFTERNOON LULL...SNOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS            
THE AREA AS UPWARD MOTION FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN             
COLORADO. STARTING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY              
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH RADAR SHOWING AN INCREASE IN                  
SNOWFALL INTENSITY ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER FROM SALIDA EAST TO JUST            
NORTH OF PUEBLO. KPUX VAD WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH 10K               
FEET AGL...WHICH IS A GOOD DIRECTION FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER THE                    
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF COLORADO SPRINGS AND THE AREA ALONG HIGHWAY               
115 FROM FORT CARSON SOUTH INTO FREMONT COUNTY. LATEST RUC AND NAM              
SUGGEST SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...WITH BEST LIFT SHIFTING                 
TOWARD THE SANGRES BETWEEN 03-06Z. TROUGH AXIS DRAGS THROUGH THE                
AREA BY 06Z...WHICH SHOULD SHUT PRECIP DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY.                     
ADDITIONAL ACCUMS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE...THOUGH SRN EL               
PASO/NRN PUEBLO/ERN FREMONT COUNTY AREA COULD SEE ANOTHER 2-4 AS                
HEAVIER BAND REMAINS ANCHORED TO CHEYENNE MOUNTAIN/SOUTH SLOPE OF               
PIKES PEAK. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY IN THE GRIDS FOR THE                
EVENING HOURS...AND NUDGED LOW TEMPS OVER FRESHLY SNOW COVERED                  
AREAS.                                                                          
MUCH NICER DAY ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES...BUT MAX TEMPS WILL               
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. MADE SOME                 
MINOR DOWNWARD TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMP GRID...OTHERWISE GRIDS APPEAR             
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  --PETERSEN                                                
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)                                            
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE AREA...DEPICTED                
BY BOTH NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS.                                                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW                     
COVER...AND LOW DEW POINTS. LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS IN             
PARTS OF THE PLAINS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE                
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.                                             
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST              
NORTHWEST...USHERING IN MILDER AIR ALOFT. EVEN WITH SOME AREAS                  
HAVING A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING GOOD                
WARM UP. LOWERED TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT ON MONDAY...BUT WITH MORE              
MIXING ANTICIPATED TUESDAY...ALONG WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...            
AND TO BLEND BETTER WITH DDC AND GLD...RAISED HIGHS.                            
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL                        
SOLUTIONS TO THE MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.                
THE LATEST IS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR                
CWFA. THE GFS DOES BRING SOME MOISTURE OVER OUR PLAINS LATE                     
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NO ONE HAS BIT ON THIS SOLUTION                  
ATTM...SO FOR NOW...A DRY FORECAST.                                             
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE TROUGH MOVES OUT AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES          
IN...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT UPTURN TO MID LEVEL                                 
TEMPERATURES...SOME 5-7 DEGREES C. THAT PROBABLY WILL NOT                       
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE...BUT LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S                 
IN THE PLAINS AND 30S TO 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ074-075-079>088.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
10/13                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY              
GRIDS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH SW WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. HIGHS TO RANGE             
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F OVER DEEPER SNOW PACK ALONG AND WEST             
OF I-55 TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER EASTERN IL WITH LITTLE              
OR NO SNOW COVER.                                                               
16Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IL              
AND ARCHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NW TO THE PARENT 1047 MB ARCTIC             
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN SASKETEWAN PROVINCE. A 1018 MB LOW WAS              
OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS                   
EASTERN WI TO NEAR THE IA/IL BORDER AND OVER NW MO. SUNNY SKIES                 
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SE IL WITH PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS               
STREAMING ENE FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL MO INTO WESTCENTRAL IL AND                  
DISSIPATING IN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER IL. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE              
UPPER TEENS OVER DEEPER SNOW COVER FROM I-55 WEST TO THE LOWER 30S              
SE OF I-70.                                                                     
RUC AND NAM/WRF BRING COLD FRONT SE TOWARD AREAS NW OF THE IL RIVER             
LATE TODAY AND SLIDE SE THROUGH CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. THIS TO                
MOVE THROUGH DRY AND REINFORCE COLDER AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL IL                  
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TODAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S/30 FROM I-55 WEST              
AND UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FROM I-57 EAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE HOW COLD TO GO                
WITH TEMPS OVER THE SNOW-COVERED WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER              
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                              
07Z SURFACE MAP INDICATES WEAK RIDGING ACROSS ILLINOIS...LEADING                
TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING                  
CONDITIONS HAVE HELPED TEMPS DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS               
ACROSS LOCATIONS WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOW-COVER.  MEANWHILE...NEXT               
PUSH OF CANADIAN AIR ALREADY EVIDENT DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.              
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                            
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...ALLOWING SW WINDS TO BRING            
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.  DESPITE THE WAA...TEMPS OVER              
THE SNOW-PACK WILL LIKELY HOVER BELOW THE FREEZING MARK.  NUMERIC               
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WAY TOO WARM...SO WILL UNDERCUT THE                    
NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA.  HAVE             
TWEAKED READINGS UP JUST A BIT ALONG AND EAST OF I-57...WHERE LITTLE            
OR NO SNOW COVER EXISTS.  SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...HOWEVER                
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL SEE SCT-BKN MID-CLOUDS FROM              
TIME TO TIME...AS WEAK WAVE AND 120KT JET STREAK TRANSLATES ACROSS              
THE AREA.                                                                       
BY TONIGHT...SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS PUSHES INTO                
ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN WINDS SWITCHING BACK TO W/NW.  SIGNIFICANT              
CAA IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...WITH NAM-WRF INDICATING 850MB TEMPS                   
DROPPING INTO THE -12 TO -14C RANGE.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD 5              
TO 10 DEGREE DROP IN HIGH TEMPS FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.  CANADIAN              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP WHAT             
COULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER SEASON THUS FAR.  WILL                 
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW-PACK...WITH READINGS              
POSSIBLY DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN A FEW LOCATIONS.                              
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                           
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN PROGGED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL            
AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL              
TEMPS AND PRECIP.  WILL ONLY SEE SUBTLE CHANGES IN TEMPS...AS A                 
SERIES OF WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS POINT...MEDIUM RANGE             
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING RATHER WEAK FEATURES...WITH BEST DYNAMICS FOR             
ANY PRECIP REMAINING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL                
THEREFORE MAINTAIN CURRENT COOL AND DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF             
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BARNES                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
515 PM EST SAT DEC 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LES EVENT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE                   
OBVIOUSLY SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES TONIGHT/SUN.                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS SHOW CLOSED MIDLEVEL             
LOW OVER NRN MN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING SE THRU UPPER MI.               
NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH CENTER OF MIDLEVEL LOW...12Z KINL SOUNDING               
SHOWED A DEEP MOIST PROFILE TO 600MB WITH TEMPS BTWN 800-650MB DOWN             
4-6C IN THE LAST 12HR. 850MB TEMP WAS -15C. SO...A FAVORABLE AIRMASS            
FOR LES WILL PASS ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SYSTEM. AT THE SFC...                    
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP A BIT FARTHER N THAN MOST OF THE                    
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED...AND IN GENERAL SFC WINDS ARE                
STRONGER. ILL-DEFINED MESOLOW AT 21Z APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST W OF            
ISLE ROYALE WITH CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ACROSS ISLE ROYALE TO JUST            
N OF THE KEWEENAW THEN SE TOWARD GRAND MARAIS. CONVERGENCE HAS                  
REALLY STRENGTHENED IN THE LAST HR OR SO. ACROSS ISLE ROYALE...ROCK             
OF AGES HAS A WIND OF 240 AT 25G29KT WHILE PASSAGE ISLAND IS 070 AT             
23G26KT. THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS HVY SNOW OCCURRING OVER ISLE ROYALE            
IN THE STRONG CONVERGENCE. TO THE SE... STANNDARD ROCK WIND IS 280              
AT 23KT WHILE WHITEFISH POINT IS 130 AT 8KT. IN THE SW FLOW ACROSS              
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...SW TO NE ORIENTED LES BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND              
ARE IMPACTING THE KEWEENAW PER SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS AND WEB                
CAMS. OTHERWISE...DECENT SWATH OF MOSTLY -SN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH             
OF UPPER MI TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS              
THE AREA. APPEARS SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS                   
BRIEFLY OCCURRED OVER THE FAR ERN FCST AREA...AND RADAR IMAGERY                 
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE MESOLOW MOVING ENE ACROSS LUCE COUNTY ATTM. KERY            
OB REPORTED 1/4SM SN AT 2058Z AND 2115Z.                                        
12Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY FAVORABLE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILES              
FOR HVY LES TONIGHT/SUN MORNING WITH DEEP MOISTURE UPWARDS OF 15KFT             
(SIMILAR TO 12Z KINL SOUNDING) AND FAVORABLE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD             
MOTION WITH BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS. IN ADDITION...IR/WATER            
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST HEALTHY FORCING/DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND             
N SIDE OF MIDLEVEL LOW ALONG AND JUST N OF MN/ONTARIO BORDER. THIS              
WILL BE SLIDING ESE TONIGHT...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DEEP MOISTURE              
PROFILES INDICATED BY THE MODELS. QUESTION CONTINUES TO REVOLVE                 
AROUND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THE             
12Z MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT WIND FLOW OVER LAKE                  
SUPERIOR AND SURROUNDING AREAS...BUT 12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL                
LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST FIT AT 18Z. WITH ITS SOLUTION...AN ELONGATED             
CONVERGENCE ZONE EVOLVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESOLOW THIS                       
EVENING...SNAKING NE FROM NEAR THE APOSTLES TO THE TIP OF THE                   
KEWEENAW AND THEN SE TOWARD WHITEFISH POINT. GFS/NAM/RUC13/LOCAL HI             
RESOLUTION WRF RUN HAVE SIMILAR PATTERNS...JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT              
TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION. IN ANYCASE...THEY ALL SUGGEST THE SAME               
END RESULT...THAT BEING A BAND OF VERY HVY SNOW. WOULD NOT BE                   
SURPRISED TO SEE 2-4IN/HR SNOW RATES IN THE MAIN SNOW BAND THAT WILL            
IMPACT MOST OF THE COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER                      
CONVERGENCE MOVES ONSHORE...N WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS WILL SEE MDT TO            
OCCASIONALLY HVY SNOW THRU SUN MORNING. WARNING ON THE KEWEENAW                 
LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SINCE THAT AREA IS SEEING SW FLOW LES                 
NOW. ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N LATER TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH             
SIGNIFICANTLY THERE. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE                    
EXTENDED PAST 06Z AS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS JUST REACHING THE TIP OF               
THE KEWEENAW AT 06Z. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE...WILL             
START WARNINGS FOR ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC MID/LATE EVENING AND RUN THRU              
THE DAY SUN UNDER FAVORABLE N OR NNW FLOW. WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE               
LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FOR THE NCNTRL COUNTIES. WILL BEGIN              
WARNING FOR BARAGA AT 06Z AND MARQUETTE AT 10Z AND RUN BOTH THRU THE            
DAY SUN. SOME SPOTS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE              
OF SNOW. WIND SHIFT SHOULD REACH ALGER AROUND 12Z...HAVE OPTED FOR              
AN ADVY THERE ON SUN WITH HIGH END ADVY TOTALS. FETCH ACROSS LAKE               
SUPERIOR INTO LUCE COUNTY IMPROVES SUN...BUT BEST FORCING WILL HAVE             
PASSED BY THEN. NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.                          
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA MON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER             
TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. BOTH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF MDT/BRIEFLY HVY            
LES TO MAINLY THE AREAS FAVORED BY NW WINDS. EXPECT ONLY SOME -SN               
ELSEWHERE WITH BOTH SYSTEM.                                                     
WED THRU SAT...TYPICAL EARLY DEC WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE               
FIRST HALF OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH LES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND TEMPS            
BLO NORMAL AS GENERAL MEAN TROF POSITION WILL BE OVER ERN NAMERICA.             
AT THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD AND INTO NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE A                
TRANSITION WILL OCCUR TO A MORE TYPICAL EL NINO TYPE PATTERN WITH               
SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NAMERICA. NRN STREAM WILL LIFT INTO CANADA...                 
ALLOWING PACIFIC AIRMASSES TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE COUNTRY. UKMET/ECWMF/CANADIAN/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON               
THE PATTERN DISCUSSED ABOVE...BUT HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE ECMWF                
GIVEN ITS RECENT CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.                     
PLUS...GFS IS COMING AROUND TOWARD THE ECWMF SOLUTION OF HAVING ONE             
LAST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR                
WED. SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF DECENT LES AS 850MB TEMPS             
DROP TOWARD -20C. NW FLOW AREAS WILL BE FAVORED...BUT THERE MAY BE A            
QUICK SHOT OF NRLY FLOW INTIALLY BEHIND COLD FROPA. BUILDING AREA OF            
SFC HIGH PRES WILL THEN SETTLE SE OVER THE PLAINS THU AND MOVE E                
FRI. SO...A LIGHTER PURE LES REGIME SHOULD PREVAIL THU FOR NW AND               
THEN W FLOW AREAS AS WINDS BACK. EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND AS WELL             
AS 850MB TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH INVERSIONS LOWERING. WAA KICKS            
INTO HIGH GEAR THU NIGHT WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO END LES BY FRI                  
MORNING. PACIFIC AIRMASS AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR                   
FRI/SAT WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 LES WARNING MIZ001-003 UNTIL 06Z SUN.                                          
 LES WARNING MIZ002-009 FROM 03Z TO 24Z SUN.                                    
 LES WARNING MIZ004 FROM 06Z TO 24Z SUN.                                        
 LES WARNING MIZ005 FROM 10Z TO 24Z SUN.                                        
 LES ADVY MIZ006 FROM 12Z TO 24Z SUN.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi