AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
900 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SOME FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DRYING AND               
WARMING OF THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE WAA KICKING             
IN TOWARD MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH WITH                   
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME                     
FAVORABLE 850 HPA/LAKE DELTA T'S EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN                 
LESSENED IN MAGNITUDE BY PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE WHICH HAS               
LOWERED INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AOB 4000 FEET PER ACARS/META SOUNDINGS.            
FETCH ALSO WILL LESSEN THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL            
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER. WILL HOLD ONTO MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED                
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE COUNTY FOR NEXT FEW HOURS.                       
OTHER CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
ZONES WHERE FRESH SNOW COVER WILL AID IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING             
AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION. CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT                 
INDICATING SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD FROM EARLIER LAKE EFFECT SNOWS               
ACROSS FAR SE CWA HELPING TO KEEP SFC DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS UP                  
SOMEWHAT. QUESTION WILL BE IF LOW CLOUDS CAN VACATE BEFORE MID/HIGH             
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ENTERING WESTERN IL SPREADS EASTWARD WHICH WOULD               
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL MONITOR OBS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AND             
UPDATE IF TRENDS SUGGEST SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.                
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN FORECAST FOR THE              
REST OF THE AREA.  NDM                                                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE...                                   
REMNANTS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED NNW-SSE DOWN THE              
MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. BULK OF THE SNOW NOW BEING DEPOSITED IN BERRIEN             
AND LAPORTE COUNTIES BUT SNOW BAND GRADUALLY DRIFTING SSW. LAKE                 
EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY DRIFTED SSW INTO CHICAGO. LATEST RUC               
INDICATES LIGHT NNW FLOW OVER NRN IL AND STRONGER NNE FLOW DOWN THE             
LAKE WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG IL SHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVENING. BUT DELTA T FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SIGNIFICANT LAKE              
EFFECT THRESHOLDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS SHOULD             
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. WILL KEEP                 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION NW IN AND            
IMMEDIATE IL LAKEFRONT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.            
OTHERWISE TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN AREAS OF               
NRN IN AND EAST CENTRAL IL AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WILL                  
ADJUST LOW TEMPS DOWN OVER SNOW FIELDS...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS               
LOOK REASONABLE.                                                                
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY             
WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR NRN IL AND IN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL             
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE              
WILL BE LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF IL AND IN. BIG STORM            
OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO PLAINS ABOUT THURSDAY. BIG WARM             
UP AND A SHOT AT SOME RAIN THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES DRYING OUT FRIDAY            
AND SATURDAY.                                                                   
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 00Z TAFS...WX LOOKING MORE OPTIMISTIC AS EVENING PROGRESSES.                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH AND REALLY BREAKING UP FAST.              
MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS SHUD BACK AROUND FROM NORTH TO                     
EAST...CUTTING OF FETCH OVER WATER AND ELIMINATING SNOW AND EVEN                
CLOUD ADVECTION OVER TERMINALS BY 04Z. WINDS RATHER LIGHT AND                   
VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE PASSES THRU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. ALREADY CAN              
SEE WAA CIRRUS AND AC ADVECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO                
HAVE AC OVER TERMINALS BY MRNG...BECOMING BKN TO OVC IN THE AFTN.               
WINDS SHUD BE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE NOON               
MONDAY. DON'T EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE ANY WORSE THRU 00Z. SO                
SHUD BE A VFR DAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
545 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANTS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED NNW-SSE DOWN THE              
MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. BULK OF THE SNOW NOW BEING DEPOSITED IN BERRIEN             
AND LAPORTE COUNTIES BUT SNOW BAND GRADUALLY DRIFTING SSW. LAKE                 
EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY DRIFTED SSW INTO CHICAGO. LATEST RUC               
INDICATES LIGHT NNW FLOW OVER NRN IL AND STRONGER NNE FLOW DOWN THE             
LAKE WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG IL SHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVENING. BUT DELTA T FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SIGNIFICANT LAKE              
EFFECT THRESHOLDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS SHOULD             
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. WILL KEEP                 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION NW IN AND            
IMMEDIATE IL LAKEFRONT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.            
OTHERWISE TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN AREAS OF               
NRN IN AND EAST CENTRAL IL AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WILL                  
ADJUST LOW TEMPS DOWN OVER SNOW FIELDS...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS               
LOOK REASONABLE.                                                                
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY             
WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR NRN IL AND IN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL             
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE              
WILL BE LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF IL AND IN. BIG STORM            
OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO PLAINS ABOUT THURSDAY. BIG WARM             
UP AND A SHOT AT SOME RAIN THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES DRYING OUT FRIDAY            
AND SATURDAY.                                                                   
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 00Z TAFS...WX LOOKING MORE OPTIMISTIC AS EVENING PROGRESSES.                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTH AND REALLY BREAKING UP FAST.              
MODELS INDICATING THAT WINDS SHUD BACK AROUND FROM NORTH TO                     
EAST...CUTTING OF FETCH OVER WATER AND ELIMINATING SNOW AND EVEN                
CLOUD ADVECTION OVER TERMINALS BY 04Z. WINDS RATHER LIGHT AND                   
VARIABLE AS SFC RIDGE PASSES THRU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. ALREADY CAN              
SEE WAA CIRRUS AND AC ADVECTING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO                
HAVE AC OVER TERMINALS BY MRNG...BECOMING BKN TO OVC IN THE AFTN.               
WINDS SHUD BE PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE NOON               
MONDAY. DON'T EXPECT CONDS TO DETERIORATE ANY WORSE THRU 00Z. SO                
SHUD BE A VFR DAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1139 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MOSAIC OF RADAR SITES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHOW A BAND OF SNOW                 
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SURFACE                    
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SOUTHERN                
END OF THE LAKE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE CENTER NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF               
THE LAKE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST                     
CORNER OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MESOETA AND WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS                  
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 00 UTC                      
MONDAY. WILL FORECAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND                  
NEAR SHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL MAKE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE               
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                 
LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 300 MB                  
WIND FORECAST SHOWS THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.               
THERE IS DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET 12 UTC TUESDAY. IN                  
THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS90 IS FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE SEEN ON                  
THE 500 MB MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT                   
LAKES. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN DAY 6. THE MOS                  
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEK SHOWS THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE                      
FORECAST AREA WITH THE SOUTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEGINNING ON                   
MONDAY. WHW                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGYY...HAVE GONE WITH A OPTIMISTIC FCST IN                
TERMS OF CIGS AND VISB. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LAKE                        
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS IS                 
SUPPORTED IN THE NEAR-TERM BY VIS/SFC/88D TRENDS AND THE RUC.                   
IF THE CIGS DUE MOVE WEST INTO THE TERMINALS IFR CONDITIONS                     
WILL DEVELOP AS CIGS AT KRAC HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 800 FEET WITH                    
HAZE. GYY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR WITH IFR LATER TODAY WIN THE                
SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE UP TILL THIS POINT REMAINED EAST OF THE                    
AIRPORT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME               
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TOMORROW. MID AND HIGH LVL                  
CLOUDS ARRIVE NEAR DAWN ASSOC WITH WAA.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
923 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS...                 
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT...WILL ADD SOME FOG            
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.                  
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MENTZER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                             
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND             
YORK COUNTY IN MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AT 925 MB IS DRIVING AREAS OF                
SNOW...WITH BANDS OF LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
MAINE FOOTHILLS. 925 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED BY THE ETA/RUC TO PICK UP             
AND BACK TO MORE OF AN ENE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO             
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY...AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN SNOW             
BANDS.                                                                          
NO MODEL QPF HAS A HANDLE ON THIS...SO PRETTY MUCH HAVE TO LOOK AT              
WIND FIELDS FOR THE FORECAST.  THE ETA DOES SHOW QPFS IN SOUTHERN               
NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REASONABLE BASED ON IT'S LOW            
LEVEL WIND FLOW. HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE BEEN SETTING UP IN THE                     
FOOTHILLS...NOT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...AS UPSLOPING SEEMS              
TO BE A KEY FEATURE.                                                            
UPDATED ZONES RAISING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS                      
TODAY...AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BASED ON THE ETA WIND FIELD.              
THERE IS ALREADY HEAVY SNOW REPORTS FROM NORTHERN MASS...SO ISSUED              
THE ADVISORY NOW BEFORE THE SNOW MOVES IN.                                      
KEEPING IN MIND THE CAUSE OF TODAYS SNOW IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT                
FROM THE CAUSE OF TONIGHTS SNOWS. WILL RE-EVALUATE TONIGHTS EVENT AS            
12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN...BUT AM GENERALLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES              
(HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BASED ON 00Z/06Z RUNS.                   
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
OCEAN STORM EXITS WEEL E OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES SLOWLY                   
BUILDING EWD INTO TUES.  SOME WEAK WAA FOR LATE TUES INTO WED WILL              
BRING CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SNWO SHOWERS.  HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER              
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.  NO SIG COLD WX            
OR MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THRU THE OUTLLOK PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VARIABLE BASED ON            
SNOW BANDS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
MARINE...GALES TO BE HOISTED IN THE SHORT TERM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEZ018-MEZ023.                                     
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NHZ007>010-NHZ013-014                              
MARINE...GLW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE: APFFEL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
815 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF                 
SOUTHEASTERN VA AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO                       
SOUTHEASTERN MD CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM               
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH MOVING                  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IS MOVING             
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. 21Z RUC SHOWS AREA OF H7 UVV                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE BAND OF              
SNOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA AT 01Z. SMALL BAND OF SNOW            
FLURRIES HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE LARGER BAND TO THE NORTH AND IS             
CROSSING NORTHWESTERN MD...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV AND FAR                  
NORTHWESTERN ATTM. UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE FLURRIES WEST OF THE                
BLUE RIDGE AS FAR SOUTH AS WARREN COUNTY FOR THIS EVENING. AS H5                
TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO CENTRAL PA JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...EXPECT                 
SUBSIDENCE TO SHUT OFF SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY...EXCEPT IN THE UPSLOPE             
AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT IN ALLEGANY...MINERAL AND               
GRANT COUNTIES...WHERE A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6              
AM EST. UPDATED ZONES NORTH OF WARREN COUNTY AND WEST OF THE BLUE               
RIDGE TO INCLUDE FLURRIES THIS EVENING.                                         
SMITH                                                                           
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...240 PM EST...                                            
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...                                              
RADAR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FORECAST REGARDING THE COASTAL SYSTEM            
AND WITH RELEASE OF THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF ANY            
PRECIP FOR LOWER SRN MD AREA. SERN VA AND THE DELMARVA ARE WERE                 
UNDER THE WINTER GUN TODAY. WHILE THIS NON-EVENT FOR US WAS SOMEWHAT            
OF A CLOSE CALL ESPECIALLY AFTER TAKING A LOOK AT PNSAKQ REPORTS OF             
6-11" OVER HAMPTON ROADS AREA OF VA....THE MODELS LOCKED ONTO A SOLN            
OVER THE PAST 18 HRS THAT CONSISTENTLY KEPT LWX OUT OF THE PRECIP S             
AND E OF THE LWX CWA. INTERESTINGLY TODAY'S 06Z GFS SOLN WAS AGAIN              
OVER-GENEROUS WITH QPF BEING SPREAD TOO FAR N AND W. MEASURABLE                 
0.01" QPF FROM THE GFS WAS CLOSE TO THE DC/BALT AREAS...THE MODEL               
UPR DYNAMICS SUPPORTED A DRY FORECAST FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA. THE            
00/06Z ETA WAS MUCH CLOSER TO REALITY IN TERMS OF AREAL QPF COVERAGE.           
FOR TONIGHT...ONE UPR SHORT WAVE MOVES S OF US AND OFFSHORE WHILE A             
SECOND WAVE DIVING DOWN ACRS THE CENTRAL GRT LAKES WILL MOVE ACRS               
PA. ATTM...AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN                   
CURRENT 1-3" SNOW ADVISORY AREA OF WRN MD/ERN WV PNHNDL AREA.  LOW              
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO THAT AREA SEEING MUCH                   
SNOW...BUT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND DECENT CAA WL LEAVE ADVSRY UP AS              
IS FOR NOW. THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THOUGH.                     
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT...RAPID CLEARING WL OCCUR            
AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER PASSAGE OF THE SECOND WAVE. COMBINED WITH THE              
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TONIGHT...EXPECT THE               
WINDS TO KICK UP SOME ESPECIALLY OVER THE MARINE AREAS WITH NW-N                
FLOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT THERE             
WILL BE DECENT LOW-LVL CAA WHICH ALLOW TEMPS TO TANK AGAIN                      
TONIGHT.                                                                        
FOR MON...HIGH PRES IN THE OH VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AS THE            
ATLC SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE. PRES GRAD WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH            
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GRADIENT RELAXES AS WINDS                
WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ON MON EVEN UNDER            
DECENT SUNSHINE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS.              
AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR THE 070-080 BKN DECK WILL BE OUT OF AFT                
03-05Z...THEN CLEARING SKIES. AFTER 13Z/MON EXPECT GUSTY NW                     
WINDS...20-24KT RANGE...TO AFFECT ALL SITES EXCEPT SOMEWHAT LESS AT             
CHO.                                                                            
.MARINE...SCA ON THE MD BAY AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AS THE SFC LOW               
OFF THE DELMAVRA COAST DEEPENS TONIGHT...WINDS WL INCREASE TO                   
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC BY MIDNIGHT. FOR MON               
DECENT PRES GRADIENT WL CONTINUE SCA ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
NOT TOO MUCH HAPPENING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK. SFC RDG IS SITUATED              
OVERHEAD BY 12Z TUE. LGT WINDS AND MCLR SKIES WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY             
NIGHT MON NGT. GFS DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MID AND HI              
CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY W.                                                       
WAA GETS UNDERWAY TUE. 850 MB TEMPS INCR FM -4C EARLY TUE TO +4C BY             
00Z WED. GFS PAINTS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE INCR ADVECTION ABV 600              
MB. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON WARMING SFC TEMPS UP QUITE THAT MUCH. MAV               
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT.                                              
CDFNT DROPS S INTO PA ON WED. LOOKS LIKE IT WON'T MAKE IT INTO OUR              
CWA. PERHAPS A FEW MORE CLDS...BUT WITH CONT WARMING. TEMPS ABOVE               
NORMAL ON TUE...INTO THE 50S OVR LRG SXN OF CWA.                                
H5 RDG AXIS OVR FCST AREA LATE THU. AGAIN...ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH                
TEMPS A BIT ABV NORMAL.                                                         
GFS HAS DONE A BIT OF A ZIG ZAG REGARDING LATE WEEK FCST BY SPEEDING            
UP THE ARRIVAL OF A CDFNT. THIS WOULD OBVIOUSLY HAVE BIG                        
IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR NO CHG YET PENDING             
BETTER CONSISTENCY. USED GFSLR FOR SUNDAY FCST...SHOWING FNTL PRECIP            
OVR AREA AND SFC WAVE RIDING UP THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS FCST            
WARM ENOUGH IN THIS SCENARIO FOR PCPN IT TO BE LIQUID.                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADV TNGT MDZ002.                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...SNOW ADV TNGT WVZ048-049.                                                  
MARINE...SCA TODAY ANZ530>537.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMZ                                                       
LONG TERM/MARINE...RDH                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1125 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON...                                                 
A CLOSE CALL. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LATEST 12Z ETA/RUC               
SOLNS THAT THE COASTAL SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT ANY PRECIP...IN              
THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE LWX LOWER SRN             
MD REGION OF ST. MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES. HENCE HAVE REMOVED                 
MENTIONED OF SNOW OVER THE DC/BALT METRO REGIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON             
BUT LEFT MENTION OF "A FEW FLURRIES" IN THE FORECAST FOR BALT. AND              
S/E OF DC.                                                                      
THE OTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON RADAR             
AS IT MOVES ACROSS OH/WV. HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT ZFP WORDING FOR SNOW             
SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WRN TIER OF ZNS...AND ACTUALLY ADDED MENTION OF             
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHERN SHENANOAH AND CENTRAL MD.                             
FOR TONIGHT...AM STILL THINKING ABOUT THE SNOW ADVISORY. WL LEAVE AS            
IS FOR NOW...WITH INITIAL THOUGHTS BEING ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE            
CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY AREA...ALLEGANY MD AND MINERAL/GRANT CO. IN WV            
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR...12Z ETA SHOWS A 060-070 BKN-OVC DECK                
MOVING THROUGH THE DC/BALT AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES             
TO BE CLEARING BETWEEN 06-12Z MON.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WL RAISE SCA EVERYWHERE INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AS               
THE SFC LOW OFF THE DELMAVRA COAST DEEPENS TONIGHT...WINDS WL                   
INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA CONDTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (MONDAY AND BEYOND)...                                      
MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL               
ENSUE AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. ETA/GFS ARE EVEN MORE                
INTREPID WITH COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK             
ABOUT 5-8F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND A 30KT SPEED              
CORE AT 850 MB...HAVE TRENDED UP WIND SPEEDS...STILL BELOW BREEZY               
CATEGORY FOR PUBLIC PURPOSES BUT GETTING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY              
CRITERIA FOR MARINE PURPOSES. AT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CEASE              
AND 850 MB SPEED CORE WILL DEPART ALLOWING WINDS WILL DIMINISH.                 
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY GETS SQUELCHED TO THE SOUTH ON              
WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTH.            
WITH A LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH               
SURFACE TROUGH ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.                      
MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE            
KNOCKED TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN A TAD...ALTHOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A            
MORE NOTICEABLE WARM UP.                                                        
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS MORE OF AN                  
AMPLIFICATION AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TRANSLATES                         
EAST...NUDGING UP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FOR ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. THE                
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH            
A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY            
WHERE COLD FRONT BRINGS 20 POPS (P-TYPE RAIN) WHICH DONT EVEN MAKE              
IT INTO THE TEXT PRODUCTS THIS FAR OUT. WOULD NOT EVEN BE SURPRISED             
IF MODELS TREND SLOWER AND/OR START TO SHOW FRONT NOT TOTALLY MAKING            
IT THROUGH THE CWA IF A MISSISSIPPI WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADV TNGT MDZ002.                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...SNOW ADV TNGT WVZ048-049.                                                  
MARINE...SCA TODAY ANZ530>534.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMZ                                                       
MARINE...RDH                                                                    
PREV LONG TERM...PELOQUIN                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
935 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF OVER SE CAN                 
DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG OVER THE PLAINS AND A CLOSED UPR LO OFF THE W               
COAST. FA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHRTWV RDG OVER NE MN...BUT ENE              
FLOW OVER THE FA/LK SUP ON THE SW FLANK OR ARCTIC HI PRES NEAR JAMES            
BAY GENERATING SOME LES BANDS AS H85 TEMPS ARND 16C AND INVRN HGT               
STILL AS HI AS H85 PER 00Z APX/GRB SDNGS EVEN THOUGH SUB INVRN                  
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY. THE MOST INTENSE BAND IS LOCATED ALG THE LK               
SUP S SHORE FM GRM TO MQT...AND THEN NW TO NR BIG BAY AND THEN TO               
CMX. THE BAND APPEARS TO BE INTENSIFIED BY THE CNVGC BTWN A NE FLOW             
OVER THE WATER AND A WEAK LAND BREEZE THAT HAS FORMED WITHIN THE                
RATHER SLACK PRES GRADIENT. FORTUNATELY...THE BAND IS TENDING TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY N AS LARGER SCALE FLOW TENDING TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AS            
HI PRES TO THE NE DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY. MOST INTENSE ECHOES HAVE                 
MOVED OFFSHORE OF MQT COUNTY...BUT IR STLT PIX/CMX OB/SPOTTER REPORT            
FM LK LINDEN IN CMX COUNTY INDICATES BAND COMING ONSHORE THERE                  
DROPPING SN UP TO AN INCH/HR. OTRW...ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING ESE                
THRU NRN MANITOBA. HI CLD IN THE WAD PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYS                  
APRCHG WRN LK SUP AT 02Z...BUT MOST OF THE HI CLD APPEARS TO BE                 
HEADING TOWARD S OF THE FA. SKIES STILL MOCLR OVER THE AREA WITH                
LLVL DRY AIR IN PLACE. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BLO ZERO AT A NUMBER              
OF THE COLDER SPOTS WITH THE LGT WIND.                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE LES TRENDS/MIN TEMPS.                               
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LARGE SCALE                
FLOW VEERING S OVERNGT AS ARCTIC HI TO THE NE PROGGED TO CONTINUE               
MOVING EWD. THINK THESE TRENDS WL KEEP BANDS MOVING N. SO ALTHOUGH              
LES FALLING STEADILY ON THE E SIDE OF THE KEWEENAW ATTM...WL NOT                
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AS BAND SHOULD CONT MOVING STEADILY. ALREADY                
UPDATED FCST TO MENTION UP TO 4 INCHES AS LK LINDEN SPOTTER ALREADY             
HAD 2 INCHES THIS EVENING WITH SN STILL FALLING HARD. WITH INCRSG               
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNGT...EXPECT SCT-BKN HI CLD TO DRIFT OVER THE FA            
DURING THE OVERNGT. IN FACT...MID CLD NOW AS FAR E AS CNTRL MN WILL             
REACH THE WRN ZNS LATE PER ETA/GFS FCST HIER RH ON THE 290K                     
ISENTROPIC SFC (H65-7). BUT SINCE BULK OF HI CLD ATTM APPEARS TO BE             
MOVING ON A COURSE TO THE S...EXPECT FVRBL RADIATIONAL COOLING THRU             
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NGT. LOWERED FCST LO TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES                
EARLIER TO AS LO AS 10 BELOW ZERO. SOME PTCHY FOG MAY FORM OVER THE             
COLDEST LOCATIONS AS TEMP FALLS WELL BLO CURRENT DWPT.                          
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SHORTWAVE WILL WORK BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME                  
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAG THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND             
THINGS DON/T REALLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL MOISTEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS            
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. AT THAT POINT...THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEEP            
MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK 850-500MB Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK                      
FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO WORK ACROSS             
THE AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY...WHEN                     
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US TROUGH MOVES EAST                 
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE            
AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SOME DPVA AND WAA AHEAD OF               
IT. WILL MENTION LIKELY LIGHT SNOW AS THIS WORKS THROUGH THE                    
AREA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT                
WITH MARGINALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING                  
MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COLDER BOUNDARY                 
LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IF THE ETA WERE TO               
VERIFY LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                     
POST-FROPA FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                                    
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIRLY DECENT                  
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION WILL              
THEN TURN TOWARD THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE                 
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO               
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE             
REGION ON THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BRING THE               
CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN INTO THE CWFA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                  
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY INITIALLY BE SNOW...FORECAST                    
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SUPPORT A               
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF            
RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION FROM                   
SNOW-RAIN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.             
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH                     
AMERICA...WITH SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE               
LONGWAVE TROUGH TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE              
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SHORTWAVES...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE              
NOT SUBSTANTIAL. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE              
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN COMPARISON TO THE 00Z                
GFS. THE CANADIAN IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...AND WITH THE MORE              
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN EJECT SHORTWAVES WHICH            
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES                  
SUPPORT ITS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. GIVEN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST...SEE NO REASON            
WHY THE ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL NOT CONTINUE TO            
KEEP A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD. WILL ESSENTIALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND               
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH IN THE LARGE PICTURE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR              
TO ONE ANOTHER.                                                                 
EXPECT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT WARM-UP AHEAD OF THIS                
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE LOW            
LIKELY TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AM NOT EXPECTING                  
OVERWHELMINGLY WARM READINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF              
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA...BUT WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE OF            
RAIN OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB               
TEMPERATURES AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD              
TO THIS FEATURE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW            
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING PCPN TO CHANGE             
TO SNOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND                
850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -15C. RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD            
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD WORK            
TO KILL OFF MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE                
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE             
STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                  
TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND THE GFS TRACKS AN ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE INCREASING              
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW BACK              
INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA BY LATE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME SNOW FROM THIS FEATURE.                                                    
TRH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
318 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LINGERING LES THIS EVENING...THEN            
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH HEADING BY TO             
OUR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVE                
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC               
UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH AN                 
UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THE               
TROUGH CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SHORTWAVE WHICH CAN             
BE SEEN DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH               
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A MINIMAL DIRECT              
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN TO MOISTEN THE MID-LEVELS A            
BIT. THE 12Z GFS AND ETA ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE FORECAST                       
PERIOD...AND WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE. THE              
GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT             
ON TUESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL.                           
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 88D IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LES              
BANDING ON LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GENERALLY EAST-WEST BANDS OVER                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BANDS OVER THE WEST.              
THE MESOLOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR THE PAST 18-24               
HOURS HAS ESSENTIALLY LOST ITS IDENTITY...AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL            
ONSHORE FLOW PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED BY IT HAS RESULTED IN MOST OF THE              
LES ACTIVITY STALLING JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. THE ONSHORE            
FLOW NO LONGER APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ADVECT THE PCPN UP THE HIGHER              
TOPOGRAPHY OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS                    
SPILLING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST...IN KEWEENAW              
BAY AND INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF HARVEY. CURIOUSLY...SOME OF THE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ABOVE 1000FT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING                    
INLAND...HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE AXIS OF            
HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVER BARAGE AND NORTHEAST IRON COUNTIES.                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING            
HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN                   
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE                     
LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF KEWEENAW BAY AND AREAS NEAR SHOT               
POINT AND LAUGHING WHITEFISH POINT. THOSE LOCATIONS COULD STILL PICK            
UP A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE             
CONDITIONS FOR LES BECOME MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE 12Z ETA AND WSETA            
BOTH SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY                  
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORK IN            
AND THE INVERSION LOWERS. IN ADDITION...SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG BY LATE EVENING TO               
PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY A FEW                  
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...WILL ALLOW HEADLINES TO EXPIRE             
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP BY LATE EVENING...WITH WAA FROM THE SURFACE              
THROUGH 700MB. SHORTWAVE WILL WORK BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY                       
MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE                  
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAG THE             
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THINGS DON/T REALLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL                
MOISTEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. AT THAT                    
POINT...THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH               
SOME WEAK 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF                    
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL                 
PROBABLY MANAGE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO              
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA               
INTO TUESDAY...WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US               
TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SOME DPVA              
AND WAA AHEAD OF IT. WILL MENTION LIKELY LIGHT SNOW AS THIS WORKS               
THROUGH THE AREA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND              
LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COLDER                
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IF THE ETA              
WERE TO VERIFY LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME             
POST-FROPA FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                                    
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIRLY DECENT                  
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION WILL              
THEN TURN TOWARD THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE                 
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO               
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE             
REGION ON THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BRING THE               
CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN INTO THE CWFA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                  
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY INITIALLY BE SNOW...FORECAST                    
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SUPPORT A               
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF            
RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION FROM                   
SNOW-RAIN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.             
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH                     
AMERICA...WITH SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE               
LONGWAVE TROUGH TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE              
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SHORTWAVES...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE              
NOT SUBSTANTIAL. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE              
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN COMPARISON TO THE 00Z                
GFS. THE CANADIAN IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...AND WITH THE MORE              
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN EJECT SHORTWAVES WHICH            
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES                  
SUPPORT ITS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. GIVEN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST...SEE NO REASON            
WHY THE ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL NOT CONTINUE TO            
KEEP A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD. WILL ESSENTIALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND               
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH IN THE LARGE PICTURE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR              
TO ONE ANOTHER.                                                                 
EXPECT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT WARM-UP AHEAD OF THIS                
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE LOW            
LIKELY TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AM NOT EXPECTING                  
OVERWHELMINGLY WARM READINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF              
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA...BUT WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE OF            
RAIN OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB               
TEMPERATURES AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD              
TO THIS FEATURE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW            
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING PCPN TO CHANGE             
TO SNOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND                
850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -15C. RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD            
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD WORK            
TO KILL OFF MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE                
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE             
STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                  
TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND THE GFS TRACKS AN ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE INCREASING              
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW BACK              
INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA BY LATE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME SNOW FROM THIS FEATURE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE CONTINING SNOWFALL OVER THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES.                              
KMQT 88D RADAR SHOWS INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUING TO                
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR BIG BAY...WITH REFLECTIVITIES REACHING INTO THE               
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES. CURRENT WINDS                
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH A GRADUAL            
VEERING TO THE EAST TOWARDS WHITEFISH BAY. RUC13 WINDS...EVEN THE               
PRECIP FIELD...MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND DEPICT             
THE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE            
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.                
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MARQUETTE TOWARD BIG               
BAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE                  
EXTENDED UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AND THE REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE                  
SNOWBAND. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF A             
FEW INCHES IN AN HOUR.                                                          
ELSEWHRE ACROSS THE CWA...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE               
OCCURING AS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE              
IMAGERY. THE BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR                
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE BANDS               
FROM PUSHING INLAND. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE. THE            
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS             
MADE TO THE WINDS AND SKY COVER.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MIZ005.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
930 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TNGT - MONDAY)...                                                  
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS                 
DEVELOPING FROM OTSEGO COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA                  
COUNTY. 18Z ETA... RUC... AND NOW THE 00Z ETA HAVE ALL BEEN                     
INDICATING THAT A BAND OF SNOW WOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR THAT                
AREA THIS EVENING... IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH            
A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS PA... FOCUSED BY MID-LEVEL            
FRONTOGENESIS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED... AS THE MAIN PRECIPIATION             
BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH              
THE COASTAL STORM. HOWEVER... STILL EXPECT A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES              
OVER THE WESTERN CATKSILLS AND EXTREME NE PA. OUTSIDE OF THIS                   
BAND... SNOW WILL BE LIGHT... AN INCH OR LESS.                                  
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF  LATER TONIGHT... BUT SOME MULTIBAND LAKE EFFECT            
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING                
WITH 320 FLOW AND GRADUALLY FALLING INVERSION. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH                
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH OF A SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR SOME LIGHT              
ACCUMLUATIONS ACROSS A LARGE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY WILL            
TAPER OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST.                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)                                              
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...              
WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THU WILL BE DRY AND WARMER            
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC AND WINDS BECOME                   
SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE                 
SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY. SAT LOOKS DRY AND            
MILD. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES            
THROUGH. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE WRN RIDGE AND                
FARTHER WEST WITH NRN STREAM TROUGHING OVER ERN CANADA...SO IT LOOKS            
LIKE WE MAY ENTER INTO A COLDER PATTERN ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN            
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK..                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...(26/18Z-27/18Z)                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 22Z-02Z AS SNOW             
MOVES INTO THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT KELM AFTER             
12Z...BUT SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS AT            
ALL OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MSE                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
858 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LOT'S HAPPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST ON THE 0130Z SFC MAP.  LOW                   
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND/CAPE COD CONTINUES TO DEEPEN             
AND INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST.  A STRONG H500 VORT                    
MAX/TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG AND PIVOT TO A NEGATIVELY TILTED                    
ORIENTATION OVER EASTERN LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO VIA THE LATEST 40KM             
RUC OUTPUT. THE IR PICTURE BEAUTIFULLY SHOWS A COMMON HEAD WITH GOOD            
DEFORMATION FORMING OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND.                                
LATEST ETA 40KM RUN SHOWS A GOOD 850/700 TOTAL DEF ZONE DEVELOPING              
OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND CNTRL NY AROUND 03Z TO 06Z AND                 
CONTINUING UNTIL ABOUT 09Z OR SO. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION                 
ASSOCIATED WITH DEF ZONES WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. THE LATEST KENX              
LOCAL RADAR AND THE NY/NEW ENGLAND RADAR SHOWS A GOOD N-S BAND                  
FORMATION(S) OVER ERN NY IN THE VICINITY OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY             
AND ONE OVER CNTRL NY.                                                          
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE                  
MODELS...IT APPEARS A 2-4" (ERN CATSKILLS/SRN ADIRONDACKS) OR 1-3"              
(HUDSON RIVER VALLEY) SNOWFALL IS ON TRACK. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE                 
RECEIVED 0.25"-0.5" IN EXTREME ERN NY...WITH THE ERN CATSKILLS                  
GETTING AROUND 1-1.5" THUS FAR. WRN NEW ENGLAND HAS SEEN VERY LITTLE            
SO FAR.                                                                         
HAVE UPPED THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL VALUES AND INCREASED THE SNOW                
ACCUMULATION RANGE TO 2-4" BASED GROUND TRUTH REPORTS/RADAR TRENDS.             
ALSO UPDATED TEMP/DWPT/WIND TRENDS BASED ON OBS.                                
NEW ZONES BY 915 PM.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT AND OCCASIONALLY DROP TO IFR              
IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE SNOWFALL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO                
IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS BTWN 14Z AND 17Z WITH BRISK N/NW WINDS AT 10              
TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.                                     
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 247 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT SOUTHERN PORTION IS AHEAD OF MAIN                
AXIS WHICH WILL BE OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AROUND 12Z MONDAY. THEN               
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY WHEN FLOW BACKS TO                
WESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE AN ELONGATED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC            
COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD BUT IT WILL BE WELL              
OUT TO SEA. SO PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE RELATIVELY              
LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW MONDAY/TUESDAY THEN SLIDE                      
SOUTHEASTWARD ALLOWING NEXT WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE                 
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EXPECTING SNOWFALL TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1               
TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
.LONG RANGE  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATING WEATHER THROUGH            
THE PERIOD WITH ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEAL WITH.  SNOW SHOWERS            
MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW DEPARTING EASTERN CANADA DROPS COLD            
FRONT INTO NORTHERN BORDER AREAS.  FRONT DROPS INTO AREA AND THEN               
WASHES OUT AS ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH BRIDGES WITH HIGH TO SOUTH.              
REAL COLD AIR REMAINS TO NORTH WITH H8 TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING               
TO -6/-8 RANGE.  FLOW INITIALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME LAKE INFLUENCE               
BUT AIR/LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL ONLY REACHES ABOUT 10-11C. DURING THE            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE SHEARED. MIXED LAYER SHALLOW SO               
NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LOW POP SNOW SHOWERS WITH EMPHASIS ON            
NORTH AND WEST.                                                                 
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL COME FRIDAY                
AND/OR SATURDAY. NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE THOUGH AS UPPER TROUGH MINORING            
OUT AS MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THICKNESSES SUPPORTS                  
MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HAVE CONTINUED ZR- MENTION BUT SCALED BACK BASED             
ON FORECAST THICKNESSES. TIMING BROAD BRUSHED (FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY)            
THOUGH GFS SUGGEST DURATION NOT EXTENSIVE...WITH ONE QUICK SHOT                 
FRIDAY IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND A SECOND SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR AREAS MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CONDITIONS DETERIORATING             
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN BR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                
MUCH OF TONIGHT.  CONDITIONS IMPROVING MONDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY               
VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOONS.  WINDS INCREASING A BIT LATER TODAY               
AND TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY AOB 15 KT. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25 KNOTS              
IN SOME PLACES MONDAY WITH LOCAL BLOWING SNOW.                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW               
DOWN. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY.            
ICE WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ON STREAMS AND LAKES.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                    
AVIATION (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
815 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU SKIRTING              
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER. MAY SEE FEW PATCHES CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS                
REST OF THE NIGHT. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE AROUND                  
850MB...ALSO INDICATED ON RUC/M-ETA. WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE               
DIMINISHED TO NEARLY CALM EXCEPT NORTHEAST SECTIONS. MAY NEED TO                
MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN SNOW COVERED             
AREAS. SO LATE EVENING UPDATE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO EVENING. KEEP              
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT WILL INCREASE SKY COVER IN GRIDS. WILL LOWER             
MINS A FEW DEGREES.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RA                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
830 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES.                      
WEAK RETURNS FROM KMVX-88D CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS E ND INTO              
NW MN HOWEVER APPEARS TO MAINLY MID CLOUD. KMBX RETURNS A LITTLE                
STRONGER HOWEVER METARS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR SNOW INDICATIONS.               
LOWEST CONDENSTATION PRESSURE DEFICITS CURRENTLY OVER S CANADA FROM             
RUC TO SAG SOUTH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FOR THIS               
WILL MAINTAIN MID RANGE POPS ACROSS NORTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS            
SOUTH HALF. TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW...CLOUDS AND WARM                  
ADVECTION HAVE BEEN STEADY/RISING THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD                  
ADVECTION ONLY REACHES NW AND FAR N BY 12Z. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP                 
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER REMAINDER OF FA TO REFLECT STEADY/RISING             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
117 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME PATCHY IFR STRAUS REMAINS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT EXPECT             
THIS TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL SEE SOME STRATO-CU IN THE                 
4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LINGER A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL FORECAST              
CLEARING AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.  DEPENDING HOW EARLY WE                   
CLEAR...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE.  HAVE INTROUDCED MVFR FOG LATE AT           
ALL SITES...WITH A TEMPO IFR AT DAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 934 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING                    
ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO END.  WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW CHANCES...              
BUT LIKELY LEAVE FLURRY MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH                    
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND 850 TEMPS DROPPING                 
BELOW MINUS 12 C.                                                               
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IS ENSUING BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE LATEST              
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP AT 850 MB TODAY...AND WITH              
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK I THINK                   
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND SLIGHTLY.  GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN               
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE               
IN A FEW MINUTES.                                                               
JOHNSTONE                                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                              
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
934 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING                    
ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO END.  WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW CHANCES...              
BUT LIKELY LEAVE FLURRY MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH                    
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND 850 TEMPS DROPPING                 
BELOW MINUS 12 C.                                                               
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IS ENSUING BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE LATEST              
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP AT 850 MB TODAY...AND WITH              
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK I THINK                   
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND SLIGHTLY.  GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN               
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE               
IN A FEW MINUTES.                                                               
JOHNSTONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                              
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                             
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 938 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING)...                                      
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER                   
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS GOES ALONG MORE WITH              
THE QUICKER 18Z GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS TREND HAVE UPDATED TO BRING            
SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER. KEPT POPS THE SAME.                      
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND            
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEL THAT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FALL TOO               
MUCH LATER TONIGHT SO RAISED MINIMUMS QUITE A BIT.                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
115 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
A QUICK UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE                
WEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  FULL SUN CONTINUES TO SPREAD               
FROM WEST TO EAST.  MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND LEFT ALL                 
ELSE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NRN NC MTNS AS WINDS SHOULD            
COME UP TO 15 TO 25 LATE TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND PERSIST              
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 TODAY AND TONIGHT.             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...DEO/HG                                                    
LONG TERM...SAB                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1012 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NRN NC MTNS AS WINDS SHOULD            
COME UP TO 15 TO 25 LATE TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND PERSIST              
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 THROUGH TONIGHT.               
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...HG                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...HG                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
730 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY FREEZING             
RAIN NOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN                  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED         
SURFACES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM             
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO LANCASTER BY 900 AM AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT           
LINE FROM 10 AM TO 11 AM.                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AT 2 AM WE HAVE A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FALLING ACROSS                 
CENTRAL SC WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER             
THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT OBSRVATIONS AND REPORTS WE HAVE SHOW                  
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. WE HAVE                   
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...              
OVERPASES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.                                                
THE GOING FORECAST HAS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW/SLEET FROM AUGUSTA TO                 
COLUMBIA TO CHESTERFIELD NORTH AND WEST WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING RAIN LINE               
MAY ACTUALLY BE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SO WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING              
AT ADJUSTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TO            
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN. WE WOULD                   
CORRESPONINGLY ADJUST SNOW ACCUMUATIONS DOWN AND FOCUS ON ICE                   
ACCUMLATIONS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF 1/4 INCH ICE                       
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS.                                                    
BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT WITH THE            
0 DEG C LINE SPLITTING THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...WET BULB TEMPS ARE             
BELOW 0 C OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                           
THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NO REAL              
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS AROUND 3-6 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS MIXED            
BAG OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN IS BEING                   
REPORTED SOUTH OF COLUMBIA AND INTO THE AGS AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO             
CONTINUE. OGB IS BELOW FREEZING AND HAS REPORTED RAIN. VISIBILITIES WILL        
STAY ABOVE 6 MILES ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN HEAVIER BANDS OF                 
PRECIP. PRECIP WILL END AROUND 10 AM AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY               
SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO              
15 MPH AND WILL BECOME MORE NORTH LATER TODAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLUMBIA     38  26  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
AUGUSTA      41  26  54  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
SUMTER       38  25  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
ORANGEBURG   39  25  53  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SCZ009-014>016-            
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                                
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING GAZ040-063>065-            
077.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE NCZ082 UNTIL 12 PM EST.                   
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE SCZ014 UNTIL 12 PM EST.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...MCAVOY                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
825 PM MST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS LARGE INVERSION TRAPPING                  
MOISTURE WITH ACRTIC AIR PUSHED UP AGAINST THE BLACK HILLS. 00Z                 
ETA/RUC STILL HAVEN/T CAUGHT ON TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF FOG             
SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SD THROUGH TOMORROW                   
MORNING.                                                                        
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MT WILL PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA                  
OVERNIGHT...EVIDENCED BY SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SURFACE                  
BOUNDARY REFLECTION. THIS FRONT SHOULD FLUSH OUT SOME OF THE FOG AND            
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. CALLS TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS                
INDICATE SPEARFISH...BELLE AND STURGIS HAVE SEEN FOG LIFT THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
REST OF FORECAST IN DECENT SHAPE...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH             
FORECAST UPDATE.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAIN CONCERN IS ARCTIC BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ERN MT              
THROUGH WRN SD. LIFR/IFR CONDS CONT ACRS THE PLAINS OF WRN ND AND               
WRN SD DUE TO LOW CLDS AND FOG. THESE CONDS SHOULD CONT THROUGH                 
TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING ON TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE ACRS NE WY/WRN NEB AND             
THE BLACK HILLS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONT THROUGH THE FCST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
852 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOW THICKENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE STILL               
OCCURRING. RUC AND MESOETA INDICATING WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM                    
ELONGATED OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LINGERING LOW               
LEVEL MOISTURE. DRYING SHOULD TAKE PLACE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS              
THE VORT MAX MOVES OUT. NOT SURE IF WILL DROP DOWN TO FORECAST LOWS             
AS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 30S. DEWPOINTS THOUGH ARE NEAR             
FORECAST MINIMUMS AND WITH ALMOST 11 MORE HOURS OF DARKNESS WILL                
KEEP LOWS AS IS. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP ACROSS            
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TD                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
435 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LARGER SCALE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK FORECAST TO BE IN A             
STATE OF TRANSITION (INCREASE IN HEMISPHERIC WAVE NUMBER)...END                 
RESULT LOOKS TO BE AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE POSITION WEST              
OF THE GREAT LAKES.  SOUTHERN BRANCH OF CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN              
IMPINGING ON THE GREAT LAKES LOOKS TO BRING AN OVERALL MODERATING               
TREND TO THE RECENT COLD SPELL.  COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES IN THE                   
NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH MAIN WEATHER               
FOCUS (OTHER THAN THE USUAL SMALL SCALE NONSENSE LOCALLY) ON                    
EVOLUTION OF STRONG STORM DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CA COAST THIS                 
MORNING...AS IT EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED IN OUR DIRECTION DURING THE              
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BY SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 165W.              
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE DEALING WITH BAND OF WAA SYNOPTIC               
SNOW SPREADING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...              
AND ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS.  WAA                 
CONTINUES TUESDAY THOUGH MOIST LAYER BECOMES CONSIDERABLY MORE                  
SHALLOW...SO WILL NEED TO EVALUATE PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SETUP.              
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE WITH CURRENT RESIDUAL LES               
THIS MORNING DRIFTING IN OFF LAKE HURON ALONG US-23 FROM THE STRAITS            
DOWN TO ROGERS CITY...AS WELL AS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE BAND WHICH             
STARTS NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY AND EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWEST INTO                 
WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR                
MUCH OF THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS SLACKED OFF (1000-850MB               
WINDS BELOW 10KTS).  EXPECT LAKE HURON SNOW SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY               
PUSH BACK FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHILE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN              
BAND WILL LIKELY START TO GET ADVECTED NORTH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS            
AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.  NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE EVENTUAL                 
EVOLUTION OF THIS BAND...WITH THE CONCERN OF BOTH ETA/RUC SHOWING               
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS             
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.  BUT                
THIS MAY FOCUS A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF MACKINAC                  
COUNTY AND IN THE STRAITS AREA...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY ARRIVAL              
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL            
GO AHEAD AND PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC COUNTY FOR TODAY GIVEN             
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF DECENT SNOWFALL.  THIS MAY                   
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON IF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CREEPS INTO EMMET/CHEBOYGAN                 
COUNTIES.  FARTHER INLAND...CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL GIVE WAY TO               
INCREASING MID CLOUD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY            
UPSTREAM (850MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 25C FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT             
MPX/INL/DVN/ILX)...AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                 
LATER THIS MORNING.  SO INLAND AREAS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON BASICALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-75 AS INITIAL AREA OF WAA SNOW              
UPSTREAM WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS FIRST...WILL JUST               
MENTION FLURRIES OF MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  THIS REGIME CONTINUES             
INTO TONIGHT...CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT THOUGH WITH LITTLE              
QG ENHANCEMENT OVERALL...AND A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THE MID LEVELS AS            
THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE            
MICHIGAN AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...THOUGH WARMING 850MB                     
TEMPERATURES AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT               
FOR SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WILL HAVE A                 
COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION CENTERED AROUND THE STRAITS TONIGHT...               
LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.  MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY            
END UP PUSHING SCA CRITERIA ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO               
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS FROM THE STRAITS EAST TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL              
ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE.                                                         
TUESDAY...GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW 750MB (AND BETWEEN 0              
AND -10C ISOTHERMS)...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC            
ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER.  WILL ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION            
OVER THE LAKES WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND -5C (WATER                  
TEMPERATURE AROUND 6C).  SO SOME POTENTIAL THERE FOR FLURRIES OR                
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  GFS TRYING TO PULL AN AXIS              
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER LATER                  
TUESDAY...NOT SURE HOW REALISTIC THIS IS BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW                
CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SOUTH OF M-72 TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BETTER                
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS IN                
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW THOUGH                  
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850MB TEMPERATURES BACK            
DOWN TO -10C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH FLOW VEERING NORTHWEST).  WITH             
THE EXCEPTION OF FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW AREAS...WHERE WILL MAINTAIN              
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WILL ONLY CARRY FLURRIES/FREEZING            
DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.  MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN             
AREAS OUTLINED ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS            
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.                  
JPB                                                                             
WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDED PERIODS...ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING THE                
CLOSED LOW NOW MIGRATING DOWN THE CA COAST OPENING AND PROGRESSING              
INTO THE PLAINS...LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SFC              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE              
DAY. ETA CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF RIDGING AND            
WARM AIR NUDGING UP INTO THE STATE (RUNNING 2-4C WARMER AT 850MB VS             
THE GFS). BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL GO MORE WITH THE COLDER               
GFS IDEA WHICH KEEPS 850MB TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT UNTIL              
LATER IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION. ALTHOUGH...APPEARS LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL             
PRECLUDE MUCH (IF ANY) SYNOPTIC PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOW                 
SHOWERS OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN FOR THE W/WNW FLOW                      
AREAS...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND             
RIDGING BUILD IN.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OPEN WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG              
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE OUT OF              
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. ETA/GFS BOTH              
FORECAST STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY THURSDAY PUSHING >0C 850MB TEMPS/DEEPER MOISTURE/AND AN                
ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER >= 7K FEET (PER GFS SOUNDINGS) INTO                   
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...FASTER THAN PREVIOUS             
FORECASTS. UPSHOT TO ALL THIS...HAVE BUMPED UP TIMING FOR PRECIP                
CHANCES TO THURSDAY PER COLLABORATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES. AND               
BASED ON GFS SOUNDINGS...RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY A RAIN                
EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL ACROSS               
THE EASTERN U.P. EARLY THURSDAY. BUT THIS FAR OUT...ADJUSTMENTS TO              
PTYPE CERTAINLY LIKELY AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. ALSO...WITH                    
COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING UP TO AROUND 30F WED NIGHT            
AND FURTHER INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY (OVER THE                        
SNOWPACK)...ADDED FOG MENTION TO FORECASTS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.                 
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY...MIZ015.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
330 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING             
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LAKE CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND FOG PATTERN.                
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE BACKING TOWARD THE NORTH AND TAKE             
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MORE TO OUR EAST WITH TIME              
THIS MORNING. NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ADVECT              
THE DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN LOWER, SO THERE IS A                  
CHANCE THAT FOG WILL HOLD ON SOUTH OF THE TRI CITIES AND EXPAND INTO            
THE DETROIT AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AROUND                    
SUNRISE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE FOR THE FOG GIVEN THE PACE OF             
VISIBILITY CHANGES SO FAR THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL MONITOR.                      
VARYING AMOUNTS OF FOG AND CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE WILL COMBINE               
WITH STEADILY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TO MAKE THE TEMP            
FORECAST COMPLICATED. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CARRY IN THE                
CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE               
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY                     
DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND, WILL MAKE THE MID 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE THE            
HIGH END OF THE RANGE.                                                          
EXPECT EVENING LOWS AND THEN RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS             
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AND THE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20             
MPH RANGE TO HELP HOIST THE TEMPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MODEL SOUNDINGS               
AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THETA-E ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO              
PRODUCE ANY SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT             
SHOW VERY CONSISTENT SATURATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN THE              
USUALLY GENEROUS GFS IS LEAN ON QPF BY 12Z TUESDAY, SO A CHANCE OF              
FLURRIES WILL WORK GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)                                                  
TUESDAY...                                                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH                
TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT             
APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES.  AT 500MB, WE OBSERVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF            
CONFLUENCE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO UNFOLD UPSTREAM AND MAKE SOME            
INROADS.  WITH THAT SAID, NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS OVER-GENEROUS WITH            
ITS QPF ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL                     
(COMPARED TO THE ETA, CANADIAN, NGM, RUC13, UKMET) SUGGESTING                   
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DISCONNECT IN               
THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND OVERALL LIFT IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  IN             
ADDITION, WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS (GOING ABOVE 0C) WE FEEL LAKE                
MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION WILL BE MINIMAL.  WE WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE OF            
LIGHT SNOW BUT DROP THE POPS TO 30%.                                            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS LAKE HURON TUESDAY               
NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT FURTHER REDUCE ITS               
DEFINITION OVERNIGHT.  STILL A BIT CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW,               
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AND SOME WARM                       
ADVECTION.  30AGL CPD/S SHOW THIS REGION DROPPING BELOW 30MBS PER               
THE ETA/GFS YET THEIR MOS VALUES SHOW NO HINT OF THIS (USUALLY, MOS             
DOES OFFER SOME GUIDANCE ON FOG POTENTIAL).  THEREFORE, WE WILL HOLD            
OFF THE MENTION OF FOG BUT RETAIN THE CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES WITH              
THE WARM ADVECTION AND RESULTING WEAK LIFT.                                     
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE DAY BUT                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND BELOW THE                 
WARMING COLUMN ALOFT.  THEREFORE, WE WILL SEE LIMITED SUNSHINE AND              
THIS WILL TAKE A TOLL ON THE SURFACE TEMPS.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL             
LOOK A TAD WARM AND WITH OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF THAT                
UPSTREAM FROM US... WE WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH.               
THE MAIN SHOW IN TERMS OF WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
IMPRESSIVE 850MB TEMP RECOVERY AS WE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL                 
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY UPSTREAM AND WITH INCREASE LLJ IN EXCESS OF             
50KTS, IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO LONG FOR US TO FEEL THE BENEFITS.                   
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTION FOG               
REGIME AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB AOB FREEZING.                 
THURSDAY...                                                                     
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW WITH STRONG            
CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW             
FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR RAIN            
(YES, RAIN).  WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE                
1300'S AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN +5/+8C...IT WILL             
BE ALL RAIN.  QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL              
WILL OCCUR.  WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT, AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, IS VERY                
IMPRESSIVE... THE LOWER CPD VALUES ARE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  STILL            
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BUT AT THE MINIMUM WE WILL ADD               
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.                                                            
THE SYSTEM FILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEEKS END WHICH SHOULD               
SLOW DOWN THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND.              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT/BGM                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
328 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS SNOW POTENTIAL TODAY AND THEN THE SYSTEM               
FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME.                                             
CURRENT WEATHER...09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S....RIDGING                  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND A BIG UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF            
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. TWO SHRTWV TROUGHS WERE LOCATED TO THE NW              
OF UPPER MICHIGAN...ONE OVER NW ONTARIO AND ONE OVER THE NW                     
TERRITORIES. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV             
TROUGH OVER NW ONTARIO STRETCHING DOWN INTO NORTHERN MN. SOME -SN               
REPORTED OUT OF THESE CLOUDS. THERE WAS ALSO A BAND OF MID-LEVEL                
CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MN AND THE                 
DAKOTAS. THIS BAND HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE TOP            
OF THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. 00Z ABR SOUNDING WAS ALMOST COMPLETELY               
MOIST IN THE TROPOSPHERE WHEREAS THE MPX SOUNDING HAD DEWPOINT                  
DEPRESSIONS OF 15-30C FROM 900-600MB. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME LAKE                
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ON LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...THOUGH              
THESE HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS                
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1038MB HIGH OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH ALSO                   
ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR OUT LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO              
10 BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT             
WAS LOCATED OVER NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV TROUGH AND A             
1036MB HIGH WAS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.            
TODAY...SHRTWV TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO MOVES INTO                          
QUEBEC...DRAGGING THE WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS UPPER MICHIGAN. IN                
FACT...BOTH THE ETA AND THE GFS SHOW THIS FRONT DISSIPATING AS                  
PRESSURES FALL BACK TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHRTWV                 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DPVA              
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING THE BAND OF               
CLOUDS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE UP INTO UPPER MICHIGAN               
THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY PROBLEM IS THAT THE LOW LEVELS MAY TAKE AWHILE             
TO MOISTEN UP AS SEEN WITH THE DRY AIR ON THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING.                 
THEREFORE NOT NEARLY AS EXCITED ABOUT PRECIPITATION AS YESTERDAY AND            
NEITHER ARE THE MODELS. QPF NOW FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ETA ARE ONLY A            
FEW HUNDREDTHS...WITH THE MOST ALONG THE WISCONSIN BORDER WHERE THE             
LOW-LEVELS HAVE THE BEST PROBABILITY OF MOISTENING UP. THERE IS ALSO            
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WITH WINDS TURNING TO              
THE SW AND 850MB-SFC DELTA-T\S BETWEEN 15 AND 20...BUT THE FLOW                 
TURNS TOO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MORNING TO IMPACT MUCH OF                       
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY                
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...HIGHER 850MB TEMPS AND POSSIBILITY OF             
A LITTLE SUN IN THE MORNING. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE.                    
TONIGHT...UPPER MICHIGAN REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AS             
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN MOVES             
INTO THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ONTARIO             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHRTWV TROUGH MENTIONED BEFORE. DESPITE              
ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH THE NIGHT...LACK OF ANY DYNAMICAL FORCING               
WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION REALLY LIGHT. IN FACT NEITHER THE GFS OR            
ETA SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF...ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST OF THE MID              
LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO LEAVE THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY             
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (PARTICULARLY BELOW 5000 FT) AND TEMPERATURES             
IN THAT LAYER ARE AROUND -10C. SO WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES. AS                
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS AFD...SHOULD THESE TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW            
DEGREES WE COULD BE DEALING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH PLENTY OF               
CLOUDS AROUND AND THE SW FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TOO                
MUCH FROM DAYTIME HIGHS. LIKE THE MET GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS ONLY                  
FALLING 5 TO 10 DEGREES.                                                        
TUESDAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN                  
ONTARIO...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY                
21Z. HOWEVER...WITH 1019MB HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT...THE COLD            
ADVECTION DOES NOT NEARLY LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT                
THOUGH...THE ETA SHOWS 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 0C ALONG THE BORDER                
COUNTIES. THIS WARM AIR WILL ALSO BE A RESULT OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT            
OCCURRING WHICH WILL NOT HELP TO ERODE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SO WE            
WILL NOT BE REALIZING THE FULL EXTENT OF THIS WARMING HOWEVER                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL             
LEAVE IN A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING...THEN AS LOW LEVELS                   
WARM...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD. THE PROBLEM             
IS THAT THE HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN              
HEIGHT WHICH MAY GET TOO SMALL TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION.                          
TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE            
INLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...ALLOWING RIDGING TO                  
STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS AND PRESSURES TO FALL ALONG THE LEE OF               
THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE CLOSER TO HOME...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES            
SLOWLY THROUGH THE U.P. AS IT BEGINS TO ORIENT ITSELF PARALLEL TO               
THE UPPER FLOW. BY 12Z WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE ALONG THE               
SOUTHERN U.P. BORDER. MAIN QUESTION HERE IS HOW COLD TEMPERATURES               
WILL FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE BETTER COLD ADVECTION IS FURTHER              
TO THE NORTH. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -8 TO -10C WHICH             
IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS.             
HOWEVER...THE ETA IS WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS ONLY AROUND -6C WHICH              
IS NOT COLD ENOUGH. WILL LEAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN FOR               
THE NORTHWEST SNOWBELTS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN LATER              
SHIFTS IF THE ETA DOES PAN OUT. AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT...THE COLD            
AIR MOVING IN SHOULD HELP TO REMOVE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBILITY            
AND KEEP EVERYTHING AS FLURRIES.                                                
WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH GOING ON OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AS A BUBBLE HIGH              
MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. 850MB TEMPS                 
RISING BACK TO -2C AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY MAKE IT APPEAR                
THAT IT WILL BE A WARM DAY. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THAT                   
MOISTURE STUCK BELOW 925 MB AS THE WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT HELPS               
STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION. WITH THE SUN ANGLE AT ITS LOWEST POINT OF             
THE YEAR AND THAT LIGHT SOUTH WIND...DO NOT SEE MUCH POTENTIAL IN               
MIXING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT EITHER. HOWEVER...AT LEAST THE               
FLURRIES/DRIZZLE WILL STOP AS THE LAYER OF MOISTURE IS NOT NEARLY AS            
THICK. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES TO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE              
NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER LOW CONTINUES INLAND AND BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AS              
ANOTHER BIG UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST. MAJOR DIFFERENCES              
OCCUR HERE BETWEEN THE MODELS ON WHERE THE SHEARED OUT UPPER LOW                
GOES. HPC PREFERENCE WHICH I WILL FOLLOW FROM HERE ONWARDS IS THE               
CANADIAN/UKMET WHICH HAVE THE SHEARED OUT LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA              
AT 00Z THU. A SURFACE LOW ENDS UP DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS                 
SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TO            
SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA.                                                       
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN STORY IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT             
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST ON             
WEDNESDAY. LOW POSITIONS AT 00Z FRI...THE CANADIAN 997MB NEAR                   
MITCHELL SOUTH DAKOTA...THE UKMET 995MB OVER OMAHA NEBRASKA...AND               
THE GFS 989MB NEAR MINNEAPOLIS. BY 12Z FRI THE CANADIAN HAS A 998MB             
LOW OVER DLH AND THE GFS 995MB OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY. NO 00Z UKMET              
POSITION AVAILABLE...BUT INTERPOLATION BETWEEN THE 00Z FRI AND 00Z              
SAT POSITIONS WOULD HAVE IT OVER MENOMINEE COUNTY. NEW 00Z ECMWF                
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. THE REASON FOR THE CONCERN ON THE TRACK IS                  
PRECIPITATION TYPE. RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE                      
TRACK...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH THE               
00Z UKMET AND GFS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH...THERE IS INCREASING                  
POTENTIAL FOR PURE SNOW RATHER THAN A MIX OR ALL RAIN. ONE THING                
THAT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED TOO IS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AT               
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IF THE FURTHER NORTH POSITIONS PAN               
OUT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEPARTING LOW OFF THE NEW              
ENGLAND COAST, LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, AND A               
DEEP LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER             
THE GREAT LAKES RIDGES SWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. VERY DRY                  
AIRMASS IN PLACE W/ PRECIP WATER NEAR A 1/4 INCH. GOES VISIBLE                  
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW PASSING CIRRUS IN NWLY FLOW. OTHERWISE, SKIES             
ARE SUNNY. IT WAS ANOTHER COLD START TO THE DAY WITH FREEZING TEMPS             
AT MOST LOCATIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB TEMPS THIS                 
MORNING, WITH HIGHS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE. NO CHANGES TO THE                
INHERITED ZONE FORECAST.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AT BUOY 42036 HAVE DECREASED BELOW CAUTION CRITERION            
SINCE THE MORNING CWF ISSUANCE. BOTH THE ETA AND RUC AGREE THAT                 
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS               
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THE NEXT              
HOUR OBSERVATION MAINTAINS THIS TREND. IF SO, WILL LOWER THE                    
HEADLINE ON THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTN FOR              
ALL FL ZONES EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO FOUR OR MORE               
CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF RH BELOW 35%.                                              
&&                                                                              
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN FOR ALL EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE                    
     COAST.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1045 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW BAND OVER LAKE             
MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO AFFECT MACKINAC COUNTY AND NORTHWEST MICHIGAN              
COUNTIES TODAY.  ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK.  MID CLOUDS                         
STREAMING INTO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 15Z MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL               
IN THIS BAND THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER MOISTURE PASSES INTO THE                   
FAVORED -15 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE.                                                
OVER NORTHERN LOWER...DRY AIR BETWEEN 750 MB AND 850 MB WILL BE HARD            
TO OVERCOME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL             
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  ONGOING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER               
MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER STILL LOOKS REASONABLE...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT              
EXPECT MUCH UNTIL AFTER 18Z.                                                    
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN BALL PARK.  WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CLEAN UP                  
MORNING WORDING.                                                                
CAMPBELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 435 AM DEC 27                                     
TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE WITH CURRENT RESIDUAL LES               
THIS MORNING DRIFTING IN OFF LAKE HURON ALONG US-23 FROM THE STRAITS            
DOWN TO ROGERS CITY...AS WELL AS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE BAND WHICH             
STARTS NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY AND EXTENDS BACK SOUTHWEST INTO                 
WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR                
MUCH OF THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS SLACKED OFF (1000-850MB               
WINDS BELOW 10KTS).  EXPECT LAKE HURON SNOW SHOWERS TO EVENTUALLY               
PUSH BACK FARTHER OUT INTO THE LAKE...WHILE NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN              
BAND WILL LIKELY START TO GET ADVECTED NORTH AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS            
AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.  NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE EVENTUAL                 
EVOLUTION OF THIS BAND...WITH THE CONCERN OF BOTH ETA/RUC SHOWING               
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS             
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.  BUT                
THIS MAY FOCUS A SINGLE BAND OF SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF MACKINAC                  
COUNTY AND IN THE STRAITS AREA...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY ARRIVAL              
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL            
GO AHEAD AND PUT UP AN ADVISORY FOR MACKINAC COUNTY FOR TODAY GIVEN             
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF DECENT SNOWFALL.  THIS MAY                   
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES                
THIS AFTERNOON IF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CREEPS INTO EMMET/CHEBOYGAN                 
COUNTIES.  FARTHER INLAND...CLEAR SKIES TO START WILL GIVE WAY TO               
INCREASING MID CLOUD AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY            
UPSTREAM (850MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 25C FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT             
MPX/INL/DVN/ILX)...AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA                 
LATER THIS MORNING.  SO INLAND AREAS WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THE              
AFTERNOON BASICALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-75 AS INITIAL AREA OF WAA SNOW              
UPSTREAM WILL NEED TO SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS FIRST...WILL JUST               
MENTION FLURRIES OF MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER.  THIS REGIME CONTINUES             
INTO TONIGHT...CONTINUED WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT THOUGH WITH LITTLE              
QG ENHANCEMENT OVERALL...AND A GRADUALLY DRYING OF THE MID LEVELS AS            
THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  SO WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS HIGHER POPS NEAR LAKE            
MICHIGAN AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...THOUGH WARMING 850MB                     
TEMPERATURES AND FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT               
FOR SIGNIFICANT ENHANCEMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  WILL HAVE A                 
COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION CENTERED AROUND THE STRAITS TONIGHT...               
LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE.  MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY            
END UP PUSHING SCA CRITERIA ON THE LAKE MICHIGAN LATER TODAY INTO               
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS FROM THE STRAITS EAST TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL              
ON THE LAKE HURON SIDE.                                                         
TUESDAY...GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW 750MB (AND BETWEEN 0              
AND -10C ISOTHERMS)...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC            
ASCENT WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER.  WILL ALSO BE SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION            
OVER THE LAKES WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES STILL AROUND -5C (WATER                  
TEMPERATURE AROUND 6C).  SO SOME POTENTIAL THERE FOR FLURRIES OR                
PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.  GFS TRYING TO PULL AN AXIS              
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOWER LATER                  
TUESDAY...NOT SURE HOW REALISTIC THIS IS BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW                
CHANCE POP FOR SNOW SOUTH OF M-72 TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BETTER                
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.  WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS IN                
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW THOUGH                  
TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT IN THE LOWER LEVELS (850MB TEMPERATURES BACK            
DOWN TO -10C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH FLOW VEERING NORTHWEST).  WITH             
THE EXCEPTION OF FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW AREAS...WHERE WILL MAINTAIN              
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WILL ONLY CARRY FLURRIES/FREEZING            
DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE.  MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN             
AREAS OUTLINED ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE GRADIENT WEAKENS            
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH.                  
JPB                                                                             
WEDNESDAY AND EXTENDED PERIODS...ETA/GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING THE                
CLOSED LOW NOW MIGRATING DOWN THE CA COAST OPENING AND PROGRESSING              
INTO THE PLAINS...LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SFC              
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE              
DAY. ETA CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH THE DEGREE OF RIDGING AND            
WARM AIR NUDGING UP INTO THE STATE (RUNNING 2-4C WARMER AT 850MB VS             
THE GFS). BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WILL GO MORE WITH THE COLDER               
GFS IDEA WHICH KEEPS 850MB TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT UNTIL              
LATER IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO ADDRESS WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING                 
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN PRIOR TO THE SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE               
REGION. ALTHOUGH...APPEARS LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL             
PRECLUDE MUCH (IF ANY) SYNOPTIC PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOW                 
SHOWERS OFF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN FOR THE W/WNW FLOW                      
AREAS...AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND             
RIDGING BUILD IN.                                                               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...OPEN WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG              
WITH ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW STILL FORECAST TO MIGRATE OUT OF              
THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. ETA/GFS BOTH              
FORECAST STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES BY THURSDAY PUSHING >0C 850MB TEMPS/DEEPER MOISTURE/AND AN                
ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER >= 7K FEET (PER GFS SOUNDINGS) INTO                   
NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...FASTER THAN PREVIOUS             
FORECASTS. UPSHOT TO ALL THIS...HAVE BUMPED UP TIMING FOR PRECIP                
CHANCES TO THURSDAY PER COLLABORATION OF SURROUNDING OFFICES. AND               
BASED ON GFS SOUNDINGS...RIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE PRIMARILY A RAIN                
EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX POTENTIAL ACROSS               
THE EASTERN U.P. EARLY THURSDAY. BUT THIS FAR OUT...ADJUSTMENTS TO              
PTYPE CERTAINLY LIKELY AS WE APPROACH THE EVENT. ALSO...WITH                    
COMMENCEMENT OF STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS              
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SFC DEWPOINTS PUSHING UP TO AROUND 30F WED NIGHT            
AND FURTHER INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY (OVER THE                        
SNOWPACK)...ADDED FOG MENTION TO FORECASTS BEGINNING WED NIGHT.                 
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY...TODAY...MIZ015.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
645 AM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A FORECAST UPDATE WILL ACCOMPANY THE AVIATION TAFS AS FOG AND LOW               
CLOUDS LOOK OVERWITH IN THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DRY AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB BUT LOW CLOUDS AND            
FOG REMAIN OVER THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 69. THIS MOISTURE IS A            
COMBINATION OF THAT FROM LAKE HURON AND THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE,              
AND IS TRAPPED UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH              
THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. BACKING FLOW FROM NORTH TO WEST             
ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL KEEP FLINT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS               
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL HELP THEM FILL IN AROUND DETROIT.                  
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES TO OUR EAST, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO            
HOW MUCH OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE. FOR NOW, WE'LL            
GIVE THEM A SHOT AT BREAKING UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A              
CHANCE THAT THEY COULD HOLD TOGETHER AND MOVE BACK NORTH, AND                   
POSSIBLY REACH MBS LATE IN THE DAY.                                             
WARM ADVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS TONIGHT AND                
LEAVE VFR CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY OVER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.                 
SOUTH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES STEADY             
OR RISING.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 330 AM TODAY                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING             
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LAKE CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND FOG PATTERN.                
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE BACKING TOWARD THE NORTH AND TAKE             
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MORE TO OUR EAST WITH TIME              
THIS MORNING. NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ADVECT              
THE DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN LOWER, SO THERE IS A                  
CHANCE THAT FOG WILL HOLD ON SOUTH OF THE TRI CITIES AND EXPAND INTO            
THE DETROIT AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AROUND                    
SUNRISE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE FOR THE FOG GIVEN THE PACE OF             
VISIBILITY CHANGES SO FAR THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL MONITOR.                      
VARYING AMOUNTS OF FOG AND CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE WILL COMBINE               
WITH STEADILY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TO MAKE THE TEMP            
FORECAST COMPLICATED. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CARRY IN THE                
CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE               
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY                     
DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND, WILL MAKE THE MID 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE THE            
HIGH END OF THE RANGE.                                                          
EXPECT EVENING LOWS AND THEN RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS             
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AND THE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20             
MPH RANGE TO HELP HOIST THE TEMPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MODEL SOUNDINGS               
AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THETA-E ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO              
PRODUCE ANY SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT             
SHOW VERY CONSISTENT SATURATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN THE              
USUALLY GENEROUS GFS IS LEAN ON QPF BY 12Z TUESDAY, SO A CHANCE OF              
FLURRIES WILL WORK GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)                                                  
TUESDAY...                                                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH                
TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT             
APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES.  AT 500MB, WE OBSERVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF            
CONFLUENCE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO UNFOLD UPSTREAM AND MAKE SOME            
INROADS.  WITH THAT SAID, NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS OVER-GENEROUS WITH            
ITS QPF ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL                     
(COMPARED TO THE ETA, CANADIAN, NGM, RUC13, UKMET) SUGGESTING                   
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DISCONNECT IN               
THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND OVERALL LIFT IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  IN             
ADDITION, WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS (GOING ABOVE 0C) WE FEEL LAKE                
MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION WILL BE MINIMAL.  WE WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE OF            
LIGHT SNOW BUT DROP THE POPS TO 30%.                                            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS LAKE HURON TUESDAY               
NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT FURTHER REDUCE ITS               
DEFINITION OVERNIGHT.  STILL A BIT CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW,               
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AND SOME WARM                       
ADVECTION.  30AGL CPD/S SHOW THIS REGION DROPPING BELOW 30MBS PER               
THE ETA/GFS YET THEIR MOS VALUES SHOW NO HINT OF THIS (USUALLY, MOS             
DOES OFFER SOME GUIDANCE ON FOG POTENTIAL).  THEREFORE, WE WILL HOLD            
OFF THE MENTION OF FOG BUT RETAIN THE CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES WITH              
THE WARM ADVECTION AND RESULTING WEAK LIFT.                                     
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE DAY BUT                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND BELOW THE                 
WARMING COLUMN ALOFT.  THEREFORE, WE WILL SEE LIMITED SUNSHINE AND              
THIS WILL TAKE A TOLL ON THE SURFACE TEMPS.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL             
LOOK A TAD WARM AND WITH OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF THAT                
UPSTREAM FROM US... WE WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH.               
THE MAIN SHOW IN TERMS OF WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
IMPRESSIVE 850MB TEMP RECOVERY AS WE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL                 
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY UPSTREAM AND WITH INCREASE LLJ IN EXCESS OF             
50KTS, IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO LONG FOR US TO FEEL THE BENEFITS.                   
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTION FOG               
REGIME AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB AOB FREEZING.                 
THURSDAY...                                                                     
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW WITH STRONG            
CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW             
FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR RAIN            
(YES, RAIN).  WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE                
1300'S AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN +5/+8C...IT WILL             
BE ALL RAIN.  QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL              
WILL OCCUR.  WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT, AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, IS VERY                
IMPRESSIVE... THE LOWER CPD VALUES ARE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  STILL            
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BUT AT THE MINIMUM WE WILL ADD               
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.                                                            
THE SYSTEM FILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEEKS END WHICH SHOULD               
SLOW DOWN THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND.              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT/BGM                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1210 PM EST MON DEC 27 2004                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IS SLOWLY                   
SHRINKING IN COVERAGE- FNT IS THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT MAY BE IMPACTED            
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD             
SHIELD MAY MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE CLOUD LAYER FLOW VEERS AROUND TO               
THE SOUTHWEST.  OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE THAT THE DISSIPATING                      
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  MID-HIGH                
CLOUDCOVER WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN DURING THE                  
EVENING HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE.  ANTICIPATE THAT THE            
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE FLOW FROM DECOUPLING                 
TONIGHT...AVERTING ANY FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT.  COULD BE A FEW STRAY             
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT, BUT NOT                
ENOUGH TO REDUCE CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM... ISSUED AT 330 AM TODAY                                           
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING             
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LAKE CLOUDS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND FOG PATTERN.                
EXPECT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO CONTINUE BACKING TOWARD THE NORTH AND TAKE             
THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS MORE TO OUR EAST WITH TIME              
THIS MORNING. NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT DO MUCH TO ADVECT              
THE DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION FROM NORTHERN LOWER, SO THERE IS A                  
CHANCE THAT FOG WILL HOLD ON SOUTH OF THE TRI CITIES AND EXPAND INTO            
THE DETROIT AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD AROUND                    
SUNRISE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE FOR THE FOG GIVEN THE PACE OF             
VISIBILITY CHANGES SO FAR THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL MONITOR.                      
VARYING AMOUNTS OF FOG AND CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNRISE WILL COMBINE               
WITH STEADILY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TO MAKE THE TEMP            
FORECAST COMPLICATED. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL CARRY IN THE                
CIRRUS AND ALTOSTRATUS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE               
RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH A SLOWLY                     
DEVELOPING SOUTH WIND, WILL MAKE THE MID 20S OFFERED BY GUIDANCE THE            
HIGH END OF THE RANGE.                                                          
EXPECT EVENING LOWS AND THEN RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CLOUDS             
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AND THE WIND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20             
MPH RANGE TO HELP HOIST THE TEMPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MODEL SOUNDINGS               
AND CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT THETA-E ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO              
PRODUCE ANY SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT             
SHOW VERY CONSISTENT SATURATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EVEN THE              
USUALLY GENEROUS GFS IS LEAN ON QPF BY 12Z TUESDAY, SO A CHANCE OF              
FLURRIES WILL WORK GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY-SUNDAY)                                                  
TUESDAY...                                                                      
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH                
TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT             
APPROACHES THE WESTERN LAKES.  AT 500MB, WE OBSERVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF            
CONFLUENCE AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO UNFOLD UPSTREAM AND MAKE SOME            
INROADS.  WITH THAT SAID, NOT SURE WHY THE GFS IS OVER-GENEROUS WITH            
ITS QPF ACROSS THE STATE ON TUESDAY AS IT IS THE ONLY MODEL                     
(COMPARED TO THE ETA, CANADIAN, NGM, RUC13, UKMET) SUGGESTING                   
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A DISCONNECT IN               
THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND OVERALL LIFT IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  IN             
ADDITION, WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPS (GOING ABOVE 0C) WE FEEL LAKE                
MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION WILL BE MINIMAL.  WE WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE OF            
LIGHT SNOW BUT DROP THE POPS TO 30%.                                            
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME DRAPED ACROSS LAKE HURON TUESDAY               
NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT FURTHER REDUCE ITS               
DEFINITION OVERNIGHT.  STILL A BIT CONCERNED WITH SOME FOG                      
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW,               
WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, AND SOME WARM                       
ADVECTION.  30AGL CPD/S SHOW THIS REGION DROPPING BELOW 30MBS PER               
THE ETA/GFS YET THEIR MOS VALUES SHOW NO HINT OF THIS (USUALLY, MOS             
DOES OFFER SOME GUIDANCE ON FOG POTENTIAL).  THEREFORE, WE WILL HOLD            
OFF THE MENTION OF FOG BUT RETAIN THE CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES WITH              
THE WARM ADVECTION AND RESULTING WEAK LIFT.                                     
WEDNESDAY...                                                                    
HEIGHTS RISE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE DAY BUT                    
SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE HANGING AROUND BELOW THE                 
WARMING COLUMN ALOFT.  THEREFORE, WE WILL SEE LIMITED SUNSHINE AND              
THIS WILL TAKE A TOLL ON THE SURFACE TEMPS.  GUIDANCE NUMBERS STILL             
LOOK A TAD WARM AND WITH OUR CURRENT SNOWPACK AND PLENTY OF THAT                
UPSTREAM FROM US... WE WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BUT NOT BY MUCH.               
THE MAIN SHOW IN TERMS OF WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
IMPRESSIVE 850MB TEMP RECOVERY AS WE ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL                 
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY UPSTREAM AND WITH INCREASE LLJ IN EXCESS OF             
50KTS, IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO LONG FOR US TO FEEL THE BENEFITS.                   
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BRING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVECTION FOG               
REGIME AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB AOB FREEZING.                 
THURSDAY...                                                                     
STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW WITH STRONG            
CYCLOGENESIS LEE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW             
FOR A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING ABOUT A CHANCE FOR RAIN            
(YES, RAIN).  WITH 1000-850MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE                
1300'S AND 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN +5/+8C...IT WILL             
BE ALL RAIN.  QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE CONCENTRATION OF RAINFALL              
WILL OCCUR.  WHILE ISENTROPIC LIFT, AS ONE WOULD EXPECT, IS VERY                
IMPRESSIVE... THE LOWER CPD VALUES ARE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  STILL            
PLENTY OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BUT AT THE MINIMUM WE WILL ADD               
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN.                                                            
THE SYSTEM FILLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY WEEKS END WHICH SHOULD               
SLOW DOWN THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND.              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                             
.LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                          
.MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MANN                                                                 
SHORT TERM...BT                                                                 
LONG TERM...BGM                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
258 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED STRONG H500 CUT OFF LOW ALONG                 
CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE H500 RIDGE REMAINED SITUATED OVER CENTRAL              
PLAINS. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ALSO NOTED ON RUC TROPOPAUSE                  
ANALYSIS NEARING MONTANA CANADIAN BORDER.                                       
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND ANY FOG                  
CHANCES TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY WX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE              
ON WED-THU.                                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG                 
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACTS ON TEMPS. 12Z/18Z MODELS DONT HAVE A GREAT              
HANDLE ON LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS/BR ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NORTH              
CENTRAL NE. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS AREA WONT TO ADVECT TO THE EAST              
OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND WEAK SFC TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE           
EAST. FOG WILL STAY IN THE 2-5SM RANGE THOUGH AS LOTS OF MID CLOUDS             
ARE GOING TO KEEP SFC COOLING AT BAY. WARMED UP TEMPS ACROSS THE                
WEST TO MATCH GOING SFC DEWPOINTS IN WESTERN SD AS THIS IS WILL                 
PROBABLY THE MOST IT WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OVERNIGHT.                            
TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY AS ANY REMAINING STRATUS WILL INHIBIT             
WARMING AND WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA AS NORTHERN              
STREAM WAVE CRASHES INTO H500 RIDGE. BACKED OFF A FEW DEGREES OF                
GOING HIGHS AND WENT CLOSER TO COOLER FWC/MET GUIDANCE.                         
BIG QUESTION CENTERS AROUND SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE CWA             
ON WED NIGHT. BIG DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE ETA AND GFS. ETA              
CONTINUES ITS TREND OF BEING ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS. END            
RESULT IS WARMING NEVER GETS TO CWA AND MAIN PRECIP TYPE WOULD BE               
FZRA. HOWEVER ECMWF AND CANADIAN BOTH FAVOR GFS WARMER/SLOWER                   
SOLUTION AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG LINES OF 12Z GFS WITH ALL RAIN                 
OVERNIGHT WED. ALL MODELS POINT TO RATHER UNSTABLE MID LEVELS WHEN THIS         
SYSTEM KICKS OUT AND WOULDNT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED            
LIGHTNING STRIKE WHEN IT MOVES OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR A              
FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE ADDING TO FORECAST. ALSO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY             
AND STRONG TEMP GRADIENT LEADS ME TO THINK THAT THIS LOW MAY                    
INTENSIFY/SLOW MORE THAN EVEN THE GFS SUGGESTS...SO FOR TIMING OF               
PRECIP WENT ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN GFS WOULD SUGGEST. TEMPTED TO             
BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY...BUT WITH AN EXPECTED STRONG DRY SLOT                   
POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF PRECIP EARLY...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.                      
IN THE EXTENDED...COMPLICATED EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH               
THE WEEKEND AS ALL MODELS POINT TO TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES              
AND ARCTIC BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FIRST                    
CONCERN IS EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS COMING IN A               
BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE AND HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP A BIT            
LONGER THROUGH THUR EVENING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING               
WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY THEN...WRAP AROUND STREAMLINES DONT TURN                 
FULLY TO DOWNGLIDE UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING. ALSO DGEX/GFS/ECMWF                 
SHOWING SOME COLD AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE                  
SYSTEM AND CHANGED PRECIP TYPE FROM RA TO RA OR SN ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF SYSTEM. MODELS REALLY DIVERGE WITH HANDLING OF UPCOMING SHORT                
WAVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. 00Z GFS SHOWING DECENT                  
CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS RUN THROUGH SAT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR             
SNOW ON SAT/SUN...WITH 12Z GFS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARDS ECMWF'S               
STRONGER INVERTED TROUGH SOLUTION. GFS/DGEX INDICATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT       
SYSTEM EFFECTING CWA ON MON...WITH ECMWF MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE.            
DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE...PREFER SLOWER SOLUTION              
BUT WILL ADD SMALL POPS TO LATE MONDAY. DESPITE THE STRENGTH OF THIS            
SYSTEM...DONT THINK HIGHER POPS THAN 30 ARE JUSTIFIED JUST YET AS               
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PATH STILL EXISTS. FOR             
TEMPS...CONTINUED COOLING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH ARCTIC BOUNDARY            
NEARING CWA. DID NOT GO AS COLD AS MEX ON FRI-SAT AS THINK GFS IS               
BEING TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR UNDER H500 RIDGE. FOR SUN-MON                 
LARGE RANGES (NEARING 30 DEGREES)( BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN ENS                      
GUIDANCE...SO HEDGED TEMPS CLOSER TO MEAN NUMBERS.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CIGS STRATUS AREA HAS REMAINED STNRY TODAY FM N CNTRL NEB...NWD            
TO CNTRL SD AND THEN EWD TOWARD CNTRL MN. THE LEADING EDGE OF IT IS             
STILL ROUGHLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...THEN ARCHING EWD TO NR KBKX AND             
KMML. IT IS PROGGED THAT THIS AREA OF LOWER CIGS WL GRADUALLY LIFT              
NWD WITH THE SLY FLOW OFF THE SFC TONIGHT. INDEED...SOME HOLES HAS              
DEVELOPED IN IT ALREADY IN THE FSD FA AND THIS TREND MAY CONT. WITH             
THE DEAD AIR TNGT...BE ALERT FOR SOME POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS BY AROUND              
SUNRISE TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...CURRENT TAFS AND TWEBS LOOK GOOD               
AND HAVE ANTICIPATED TRENDS IN THEM.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE                                                                       
MN...NONE                                                                       
IA...NONE                                                                       
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
JRM/MJF                                                                         
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