FXUS04 KWBC 120730
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
229 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 13/1200 UTC THRU MAR 14/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 


DAY 1...                      

...WRN/CNTRL TX...

THE MDLS CONT TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE
WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE CLOSED SYS WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT
AND OPENS UP THRU WRN/CNTRL TX THIS PD..AND FOR A CHG THEY AREN'T
THAT DIFF QPF-WISE.    SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND
HAVE OCCURRED OVR PTNS OF WRN TX THU AFTN/EVE..AND WITH HGT
FALLS..SOME CONTD UPR DIFL..AT LEAST INTO FRI AFTN..AND A MODEST
SSELY LLJ PERSISTING..XPC MORE ADDITIONAL MDT TO EVEN LCLY HVY
RAINS OVR WRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL TX DURG THIS PD.    HVIEST RAINS
ARE LIKELY DURG THE DAY FRI AND OVR WRN TX..WITH RNFL AMTS
DECREASING SOME FRI NGT INTO CNTRL TX AS THE MID LVL SYS OPENS UP
AND THINGS BCM MORE PROGRESSIVE.    OTHER THAN THE GFS PROBABLY
HAVING A LTL TOO MUCH RNFL IN SCNTRL TX..DIDN'T SEE ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT MDL QPF DIFFS..AND MANUAL QPF DIDN'T DEVIATE MUCH FM
THEM.    


...NY STATE INTO NEW ENG...

THE STG..CLOSED MID/UPR LVL SYS MOVG THRU SRN NEW ENG 1ST HALF OF
THIS PD..FOLLOWED BY THE MUCH WKR SYS NOW UPSTREAM OVR THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY..WL KEEP THINGS WET AND UNSETTLED MUCH OF
NY STATE INTO NEW ENG INTO LT FRI NGT.   THIS SYS WON'T HAVE A LOT
OF
MSTR TO WORK WITH..BEING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE DOWNSTREAM
FEATURE..SO PCPN AMTS WITH IT SHLD RMN GENLY ON THE LGT SIDE..IN
LN WITH THE QUITE AGREEABLE MDL QPFS AGAIN.    PLS SEE GRAPHICS
93S AND 94S AND QPFHSD FOR DETAILS ON SNOWFALL POTNL WITH THIS
FEATURE.



THE MID/UPR LVL TROF NOW APCHG THE B.C. CST WL DIG ESEWD INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES/NRN HI PLAINS BY SAT MRNG..BUT AGAIN WL BE RATHER
MSTR STARVED..LEADING TO ONLY VRY LGT SNOWS FM MT INTO NRN PARTS
OF ND..WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS RMNG WELL N IN CANADA.



DAY 2...

...UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS TO SRN PLAINS...

THE UKMET/CANADIAN... AND MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS TREND VERSUS
PAST RUNS... SUPPORT GOING CLOSER TO THE ETA SOLN WITH THE
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM PROGRESSING THRU THE PLAINS INTO
THE UPR MS VLY/GRTLKS.  THE FAVORED NON-GFS CONSENSUS FOR QPF
SPREADS HEAVIEST PCPN... IN THE FORM OF SNOW... ALONG A PATH FROM
NRN MN/SWRN ON ESEWD INTO THE UPR GRTLKS... WITH MAX AMTS OF .25-
.50 INCH LIQUID.  THIS CONTRASTS WITH THE GFS WHOSE MORE AMPLIFIED
MID LVL SOLN GENERATES A SWATH OF .50-1 INCH FROM NRN IA/SRN MN
TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

FARTHER S... CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOWER ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MS VLY.  MDLS BEGIN TO LOSE DEFINITION OF
THE MID LVL LOW NOW OVER NWRN MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF ORGANIZED LGT TO ISOLD MDT RNFL FROM
THE RED RIVER VLY INTO THE MID MS VLY.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MEET LOW LVL FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO... POSSIBLY ENHANCING AMTS THOUGH MDLS HAVE TRENDED
LIGHTER.  COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHEST 24 HR TOTALS OVER SERN OK... AROUND .50-1 INCH.  MEANWHILE
THE ETA APPEARS TOO FAR E WITH ITS RNFL OVER CNTRL LA... AND THUS
FOLLOWED THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN BLEND THAT KEEPS RNFL OVER
SERN TX INTO NWRN LA.

...PAC NW...

GUIDANCE FROM 00Z AND EARLIER STRONGLY SUGGESTS THE ETA IS TOO
WEAK AND TOO FAR S WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING THE BC COAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  IN SPITE OF THIS... THE ETA AND GFS ARE QUITE
SIMILAR OVER THE PAC NW.  BOTH FCST A PERIOD OF DEEP MSTR
AMOUNTING TO PW VALUES OF SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN .75 INCH... AND
20-30 KTS OF 850 MB ONSHORE FLOW... WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
LOCALLY MDT PCPN BY LATER SAT NIGHT.  GIVEN THE SIMILARITY OF
ETA/GFS FCSTS OF MSTR AND LOW LVL FLOW... AND REASONABLE
AGREEMENT FROM THE UKMET/CANADIAN... THE TOPOGRAPHICALLY
SUPERIOR ETA IS PROBABLY THE BETTER OPTION OVER THE OLYMPICS
AND NRN WA CASCADES WHERE .25-.60 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.   

...SOUTHWEST...

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND THE DESTABILIZING INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD GENERATE SCT AND MOSTLY LGT CONVECTION OVER
CNTRL/ERN AZ AND NM.  WHILE AREAL AVG AMTS SHOULD BE UNDER .25
INCH... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS ON A
LOCALIZED BASIS.

...NEW ENG...

MID LVL TROF WILL BE LIFTING NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD.  ASSOC LGT SNOW INITIALLY IN PROGRESS FROM UPSTATE
NY INTO ME SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME... LEAVING LESS
THAN .10 INCH LIQUID IN MOST AREAS. 

TERRY/RAUSCH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 13/12Z
 0.01 434821 440826 446843 442851 433857 435865 456881 468894 
      477892 480873 475862 469850 464834 471828 488827 502820 
      516786 517753 519726 519694 509644 495607 489598 482587 
      479582 476581 472578 469587 464600 456610 450621 447629 
      446640 446650 445661 446670 445675 443681 440691 437690 
      435684 431678 427673 424673 420676 418683 415702 415725 
      417735 420750 421771 417778 412782 400788 392791 389794 
      390798 392799 396800 400799 422809 428806 431808 433812 
      433817 434821 
 0.01 555109 555099 555090 553076 551065 548052 544026 542016 
      539008 534995 529985 524976 519970 513965 506962 503960 
      499959 494960 486962 479968 476974 475978 476986 478993 
      480997 481002 483006 485015 489023 493032 497044 499059 
      499065 498073 494081 488082 482077 476072 465075 462084 
      459090 456093 452092 447090 444091 440097 440103 441106 
      446112 452120 455128 454133 451138 452145 453149 455155 
      454161 455164 458164 463159 467157 475160 479163 480170 
      480177 481180 489185 492188 491195 490198 486201 481205 
      474207 471209 468213 466217 466222 469224 472224 476223 
      481225 483227 476231 473233 471237 472242 474246 477247 
      480246 483241 485236 488233 492233 494235 497240 499243 
      504245 507245 512245 516243 518239 522231 525227 530224 
      535217 537211 538204 539186 541171 543163 544160 547153 
      550139 555109 
 0.01 520220 519215 518212 516209 515208 514204 513203 510201 
      507199 504200 503201 501205 501210 503212 505215 507216 
      508218 510222 513225 516224 517224 520221 520220 
 0.01 508123 509119 510114 509109 508106 505106 503109 502110 
      500113 499115 498118 499122 501125 504127 507125 508123 
 0.01 358022 363005 366989 365976 362964 354952 338937 328935 
      320940 311947 305957 299966 290972 278976 265991 255002 
      251011 252018 263031 274039 286047 310070 317086 320099 
      326110 332116 341119 349121 358120 365116 367103 365086 
      359074 352068 352060 351051 354036 358022 
 0.25 494630 490619 487615 483617 480621 477626 472634 469639 
      467647 466654 462669 461676 461683 462687 464688 469686 
      473684 475680 476673 474669 476665 481664 488661 492660 
      495652 497645 494630 
 0.25 541097 542090 542084 541076 538058 534038 531026 528019 
      521007 517002 512002 511011 513020 518035 520043 520051 
      520062 520071 522081 524087 528095 531101 536105 540102 
      541097 
 0.25 523183 521177 519172 516170 513168 510170 511175 512177 
      515180 516181 518184 521185 523183 
 0.25 462719 460714 457713 450717 444717 440724 439730 437735 
      437740 437749 438752 440754 443752 448746 455738 459731 
      462723 462719 
 0.25 287029 302037 315044 323047 327046 333044 338040 342036 
      346026 348017 348002 345984 340975 334970 324967 318968 
      312973 305980 292993 285997 275001 271005 270011 270014 
      271019 273023 278025 287029 
 0.50 341013 341009 341000 338991 332983 322978 316981 310986 
      295998 289002 283007 280013 279016 280019 283020 291021 
      304027 312031 318033 323034 329034 335031 337028 340022 
      341013 
 1.00 308018 317023 323023 327020 329012 329006 325997 319995 
      314997 303008 301011 303013 306016 308018  
 
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 495666 494659 491653 485645 479640 472636 467635 462636 
      459638 452644 447650 443659 443665 444671 446678 449686 
      452695 451700 446705 439710 434713 431717 429719 427724 
      426730 430732 432731 436731 437733 429740 426743 424748 
      425756 429762 434764 441756 444749 445739 447733 455729 
      463727 469728 475732 483736 490737 493735 496724 498713 
      498693 495666 
 0.01 540197 534183 531177 528172 519160 515158 512158 508161 
      501160 495164 485169 484175 486179 489185 491191 490194 
      487195 467205 464207 461206 458207 456210 450212 446213 
      441215 439218 440221 443225 450229 448232 442234 441237 
      442241 447245 454247 460251 468262 477272 486282 490285 
      495292 503303 506304 
 0.01 533885 531869 531861 529854 525838 522829 518822 515817 
      509808 502802 496798 490795 484794 476794 469797 454807 
      451812 443818 440821 437823 428828 419833 410836 400839 
      391842 385847 377852 371858 367863 364868 360876 354889 
      350896 345900 340901 338900 338896 340893 345885 347879 
      351870 357863 366849 371835 372827 369823 367821 363820 
      359820 352825 349830 347838 347846 345855 343862 340870 
      333884 329892 325901 316904 306914 295922 287924 283925 
      279928 276934 275939 276944 278949 277953 272957 267963 
      261970 259977 260983 261991 262996 265998 275004 280007 
      286012 288019 290024 293031 290037 284051 280059 280067 
      283076 286083 289088 294093 299097 305100 314108 328115 
      339123 343124 345121 348112 346102 346092 347085 349082 
      352078 354073 352056 345041 341035 340030 346017 348013 
      350010 356005 369997 384990 393985 401980 411971 423959 
      428956 432953 437954 441954 443956 447957 450960 455966 
      457969 459974 462985 464997 463014 462026 463033 464039 
      469048 477063 486077 496090 499095 507100 512099 520095 
      525089 530081 532076 535069 537058 540042 541025 541011 
      540997 538988 534975 530961 530956 530931 531916 533904 
      533885 
 0.01 478168 478166 478164 477159 476156 475154 473153 470151 
      468151 465152 463152 461155 461156 461157 463161 464162 
      466166 469167 472169 475170 478168 478168 
 0.01 476111 478106 477101 475094 473089 470085 468085 459086 
      455085 453079 451071 450064 450056 450052 451047 450043 
      448036 446031 441030 437033 434039 435056 435064 437071 
      439076 444080 447084 445088 441092 438093 437097 437101 
      440108 442112 446116 450118 453121 454125 452134 453138 
      454140 460139 465127 467122 472116 476111 
 0.01 462182 463178 462175 457173 454170 455164 453155 450152 
      444153 443157 443164 444170 448175 447179 444182 441183 
      438187 437191 439198 442202 445204 449195 453192 455189 
      462182 
 0.01 430060 430056 430052 428048 427047 424045 422045 421045 
      418049 419053 420056 421060 421062 422064 424068 424069 
      427069 428068 429064 430062 430060 
 0.01 320022 320019 320016 320014 317014 314014 312016 313020 
      314023 315024 316026 317029 318030 319029 320026 320024 
      320022 
 0.25 516282 518276 519268 517258 515250 512241 508235 504228 
      498222 495221 493226 494236 493241 490240 484241 479235 
      478233 473232 470236 469240 471245 476250 482255 486262 
      494277 499284 502288 506291 510290 513288 516282 
 0.25 524202 522197 520193 518191 517189 514189 514190 513194 
      514195 516200 519204 521206 524202 
 0.25 515888 514880 511875 506863 500851 496845 492841 484835 
      478829 476826 472825 463824 458827 455831 449842 435861 
      435866 436873 435880 433885 429892 426896 421898 410902 
      401905 397906 392905 389904 385910 372921 356929 340941 
      336943 334941 333933 331926 328925 326927 324929 317937 
      313941 304944 299951 292957 286964 279970 277974 276979 
      279984 282986 288987 293987 297986 300983 302979 311977 
      315977 321979 327985 330989 332995 334998 338998 343992 
      347986 349982 353978 362973 370968 381963 388957 391953 
      393949 395940 400935 432904 437903 443903 450906 459907 
      465910 468913 469919 467926 467931 472942 475948 479952 
      502985 506995 510009 513013 518010 521004 521998 520990 
      521985 523978 523972 520960 518944 516927 516911 515888 
 0.25 488215 488214 485211 482210 479212 479213 481217 481218 
      484219 487219 487217 488215 
 0.25 311081 311078 310076 310075 308072 307072 305071 302071 
      301072 300075 300078 301081 302083 303084 305086 307086 
      310085 310084 311081 
 0.50 505282 507278 505275 504272 503270 501266 501265 498263 
      497259 496258 494256 491257 492262 492263 495266 496268 
      497270 500272 501275 502277 504281 505282 
 0.50 491901 490897 489896 488893 486892 485894 487896 489898 
      489902 491903 491901 
 0.50 476238 476237 475238 475239 476238 
 0.50 366951 365946 363944 355943 347945 342951 340956 338965 
      337973 338979 340982 344976 348972 352966 357960 362956 
      366951  
 
$$