####018004052####
FXUS61 KRLX 090048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN AND 
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE PUSHING IN FROM THE 
WEST...AND WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAIN ENERGY 
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD...WITH LOW 
LEVEL FLOW RUNNING PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE 
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF THE FRONT AS IT WASHES OUT WITHIN THE CWA. 
NEXT WARM FRONT IS NOT FAR BEHIND...AND WILL REINFORCE THE WARM AIR 
ADVECTION. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP A NICE GRADIENT WITH THE 
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP IN 
STRENGTH WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 
THE MIXING DOWN OF THE 40-50KT LOW LEVEL WINDS AT 850HPA. FELT THE 
GRIDDED MOS VALUES WERE A TAD TO HIGH FOR THE SUSTAINED...AND 
BROUGHT THEM DOWN A FEW TICKS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE 
BREEZY REGARDLESS. KEEPING POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WHILE IN THE WARM 
SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY DESPITE THE WARMER 
AIRMASS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S CAN BE THANKED FOR THAT. FEEL THERE 
WILL NEED TO BE SOME DISTINCT FORCING TO GET PRECIPITATION TO FIRE 
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND BEGIN RAMPING THEM UP AT 
THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY MAX T VALUES ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE 
GENERALLY...AND MORE SUN COULD MAKE THEM HIGHER. CIRRUS SHIELD 
SHOULD HOLD THEM AT BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS 
THE REGION AND THE FLOW TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.  BUT 
AFTER THAT...THE DIFFERENCES START TO MOUNT WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH 
FASTER TO MOVE SYSTEMS THROUGH...BEGINNING WITH A DISORGANIZED 
SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS ON 
SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW LATE SUNDAY.  THE 
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FROM HPC.  SO WITH IT 
CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF.

DID HOLD ONTO SOME LIGHT PCPN IN THE NW FLOW THURSDAY...BUT 
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR SNOW SHOWER SO HAVE LIMITED THEM 
TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS. ALSO STAYED UNDERNEATH THE MEX AS THE NW FLOW 
AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD HOLD THE CLOUDS AROUND.  THE 850 MB TEMPS 
ARE COLDER ON THE ECMWF AND WOULD SUPPORT THE LOWER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND STAYS THROUGH FRIDAY  SO 
HAVE GONE MOSTLY DRY...AND ALLOWED FOR SOME COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY 
NIGHT AS THE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL 
COOLING. 

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON 
SATURDAY...KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST SO HAVE JUST 
GONE WITH SOME CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY.  WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH IF 
THE NRN STREAM ENERGY CAN CATCH UP TO KEEP THE POPS GOING INTO SAT 
NIGHT.  BEHIND THIS WAVE...ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE TO CHANGE 
THE PCPN BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS AS IT ENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE COLDER AS THE NW 
FLOW AND COLDER 850 MB TEMPS SUPPORT THE COOLER READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...VFR 
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ESS/JS
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...RPY