AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1235 PM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION MIXING                
STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE. UPDATED ZONES FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THIS            
AFTERNOON AND MENTIONED GUSTS TO 35 MPH. WAYCROSS REPORTED NW 23G32             
MPH AND RH IS 34%. BOTH RUC AND LAMP STILL INDICATE A LONG DURATION             
BELOW 25% THIS AFTN. EVEN THOUGH 17Z LAMP SHOWS 29%...THINK THE                 
MINIMUM RH WILL FALL BELOW 25% AND HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING               
FOR INLAND SE GA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
955 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                    
.DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES GRACE THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE PIC SHOW VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE.            
ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE MORNING SOUNDING IS AT BASE OF                     
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 800 MB WHICH IS WHY TAFS HAVE FEW070 THIS                  
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND ARE RIGHT ON               
TRACK WITH MAV. THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER              
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO REACH THE            
NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AND WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY SUNNY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE THIS AFTN TO KICK UP WINDS AGAIN INTO            
SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES REQUIRED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RUC INDICATES RH BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 5 HOURS            
OVER INLAND SE GA. 14Z RUC RH FIELD IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT             
CONDTIONS IN GA. MOST RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 6 HOURS BELOW             
25% FOR WAYCROSS. FUELS ARE VERY DRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 10 AM            
OBS TO MAKE DECISION ON RED FLAG FOR GA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH 20-60NM.                
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
     FIRE WX WATCH FOR NE FL SAT.                                               
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA TO FERNANDINA BCH 20-60NM.                   
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES EXCEPT COASTAL GLYNN AND COASTAL                
     CAMDEN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRABERT/HESS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
955 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
...DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...                    
.DISCUSSION...BEAUTIFUL BLUE SKIES GRACE THE FORECAST AREA THIS                 
MORNING. WATER VAPOR AND VIS SATELLITE PIC SHOW VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE.            
ONLY AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE MORNING SOUNDING IS AT BASE OF                     
INVERSION JUST ABOVE 800 MB WHICH IS WHY TAFS HAVE FEW070 THIS                  
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 50S TO AROUND 60 AND ARE RIGHT ON               
TRACK WITH MAV. THINK MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE LARGE CYCLONE OVER              
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO REACH THE            
NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA AND WILL CHANGE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY SUNNY.              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE THIS AFTN TO KICK UP WINDS AGAIN INTO            
SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. NO CHANGES REQUIRED.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RUC INDICATES RH BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR AROUND 5 HOURS            
OVER INLAND SE GA. 14Z RUC RH FIELD IS ACTUALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT             
CONDTIONS IN GA. MOST RECENT LAMP GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS 6 HOURS BELOW             
25% FOR WAYCROSS. FUELS ARE VERY DRY BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER 10 AM            
OBS TO MAKE DECISION ON RED FLAG FOR GA THIS AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH 20-60NM.                
     RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
     FIRE WX WATCH FOR NE FL SAT.                                               
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALTAMAHA TO FERNANDINA BCH 20-60NM.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRABERT/HESS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
938 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION..                                                                   
QUIET EVENING IN PROGRESS WITH MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOCUSING ON                
TEMPERATURES...AND ONSET OF ANY POTENTIAL SKY COVER BY OVERNIGHT AS             
WELL AS WINDS. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOWING UP IN THE               
H85 CHART WITH 25 TO 30 DEG DEW POINT SPREADS FROM WESTERN IOWA                 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK GRADIENT OVER STATE HAS ALLOWED WINDS             
TO GO LIGHT NORTH AND TEMPERATES TO DROP INTO 40S WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF THE DES MOINES AIRPORT HEAT ISLAND. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS FOR TIMING             
AND PASSAGE OF DRY TROF AND  LOWERED TEMPERATURES OVER THE NISH                 
VALLEY IN SW CWA GIVEN LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BEFORE TROF PASSAGE. MAY            
BE OPTIMISTIC WITH 70  PERCENT SKY COVER IN THE NORTH TONIGHT GIVEN             
DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WARMING IR IMAGERY OVER NRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL              
PICK UP OVER NRN HALF OF CWA BY AROUND 10Z AND LIKE THE RUC                     
DEPICTION OF THIS.                                                              
LOOKING AHEAD INTO SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY ONE WITH MESOETA                
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIXING ONLY TO AROUND 770MB WITH DECENT                      
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO EAST.  MODEL SUSTAINING 20+ KTS OF SFC WIND                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ANTICIPATED.                           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MR                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1110 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY                            
STATIONARY...MOVING FROM A CENTER NEAR HGR TO OVER THE NATIONS                  
CAPITOL OVERNIGHT. CONTINUOUS VERTICAL MOTION HAS MOISTENED THE                 
UPPER LEVELS...DECAYING THE DRYSLOT TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT. ACARS               
WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE 400-250MB LAYER SHOW A JET FROM THE WESTERN            
GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE A 115KT JETLET              
IS POSITIONED. A 80-100KT JET TIED TO THE UPPER LOW STRETCHES FROM              
BOSTON WEST AND SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                
PLACES A 1002MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.                  
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE                
PRECIPITATION...WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE ENCROACHING FROM THE                    
EAST...NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE            
LOW EASTWARD. THOUGHT THAT BY NOW PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE                   
SHOWERY AND DEPENDANT ON INSTABILITY. PART OF THE RATIONALE IS A                
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS SEEM            
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE NORTHEAST CONUS JET...WHICH IS                
FORECAST TO ROUND THE UPPER LOW DURING THE NEXT 24HR AND SUPPORT THE            
UPPER LOWS EXIT SATURDAY.                                                       
PERSISTENT VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN FAVORABLE DENDRTIC SNOW GROWTH                
TEMPERATURE LAYER ALLOWED SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE            
MOUNTAINS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OVER A HALF FOOT IN SEVERAL                      
LOCATIONS. 06Z/12Z ETA/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW SLOWLY                   
WOBBLES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. 06Z ETA AND GFS ALONG WITH 09Z             
RUC BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE MIDLEVEL DRYING DURING               
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR               
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUGGESTS DIURNAL LOW LEVEL WARMING. THE                   
COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND WARMING                   
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO A            
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FROM SNOW DURING THE MIDDAY.                              
AS THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL LOW DRIFT SOUTHEAST...THE MODERATE AREA             
OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY DO THE SAME. FURTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY             
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE LOST AND EXPECT                
SHOWERY INSTABILITY PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL             
WORDING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND LIKELY FURTHER WEST...WORDING AS             
RAIN IN THE EAST AND SHOWERS IN THE WEST.                                       
ASOS OBSERVATIONS REPORT 0.5-1.0" OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE                   
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE PAST 24HR. RIVER LEVELS HAVE RISEN            
SEVERAL FEET BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW LEVELS OF CONCERN. MARFC FFG IS              
3-4" DURING A PERIOD OF 6 TO 24 HRS FOR PROBLEMS TO OCCUR. THEREFORE            
THIS SOAKING RAIN WILL NOT PRESENT A FLOOD RISK.                                
GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE              
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL BUMP OUR TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT            
FRESH SNOWPACK SHOULD PRECLUDE REACHING GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DURING            
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TODAY.                     
DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY OVERCOME CYCLONIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE                
CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...ALLOWING SOME SUN TO BREAK OUT...SO WILL            
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES THERE AS WELL.                                             
HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS               
CALLS HAVE REVEALED LITTLE TO NO CURRENT PROBLEMS AS RADAR SHOWS                
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED. THE BLUE RIDGE IS            
THE MAIN CONCERN CURRENTLY...AND HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER                  
STATEMENT WITH FURTHER DETAILS (WBCSPSLWX).                                     
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TIMING/CHANCES WEST ALONG WITH            
CLOUDS/TEMPS.                                                                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPSTREAM SHRTWV INTO WRN               
ONTARIO (FROM NEAR CYPL INTO FAR NW MN). ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT TROF              
EXTENDED FROM NW OF CYQT INTO N CNTRL MN. VIGOROUS DPVA / 700-300               
MB QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTED SOME SPRINKLES FROM               
CYXL INTO N MN WITH SNOW SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH EVEN THOUGH THE                  
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROF WAS VERY DRY. THE 00Z ETA DEPICTION OF THE            
COLD AIR SURGE BEHIND THE TROF (WITH H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -7C OVER NW               
UPR MI) BY 12Z IS LIKELY OVERDONE. H8 TEMPS UPSTREAM WERE INTIALIZED            
TOO COLD...PER 00Z CWPL SNDG. THE 00Z RUC EVEN KEEPS THE H8 THERMAL             
RDG OVER CNTRL UPR MI AT 12Z WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 3C. HOWEVER...LATE            
ARRIVAL OF PCPN AND WET-BULB TEMPS WELL BLO 0C SHOULD KEEP PCPN AS              
-SHSN. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE ETA PCPN PROG SUGGESTS             
ANY PCPN WOULD REACH ONLY FAR NW UPR MI BY 12Z. SO...HAVE TAPERED               
BACK MENTION OF -SHSN CHANCES CNTRL. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE LIGHT...MID             
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO UPR MI WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO              
FAR THE REST OF TONIGHT. SO...TEMPS NUDGE UPWARD A BIT.                         
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1047 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE KWDC              
AREA. A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STRETCHING                
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS DIGGING INTO              
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A RIDGE               
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO.                          
ETA FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATES VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE             
U.P. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS                
>300MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND UP              
STREAM. THUS SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS             
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH TODAY. THE TRAJECTORY             
FORECAST AND GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD A FEW               
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS. PLAN TO BUMP SOME OF THE                        
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT.                                                          
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PULL A LITTLE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT USHERING            
IN COLD AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA. MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH AND 300K                 
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT SUGGEST A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE                 
SWINGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO UPPER            
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO               
PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1041 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE MID             
ATLANTIC REGION. AN AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB THETA E AIR...WITH ATLANTIC            
ORIGINS...IS WRAPPING AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AND INTO SE MICHIGAN.               
SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT COMBINED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
PRODUCED A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE              
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL THETA E AXIS WILL REMAIN             
OVER SE LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE             
WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER JET AXIS DIVES SOUTH INTO THE                 
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS IN PLACE AND WITH            
SOME WEAK RETURNS LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER EXETER                    
RADAR...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT                
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
THE 12Z ETA AND EVEN THE LATEST RUC CONTINUE TO BE A BIT TOO MOIST              
IN THE 925-800MB LAYER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE DATA. QUITE A BIT A            
BREAKS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS            
THE SAGINAW VALLEY. WITH SOME APRIL SUNSHINE...EXPECT MIXING WILL               
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...THE                   
EXCEPTION BEING ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST              
AREA CLOSER TO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED             
MIXING TO 900MB WOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER                  
50S...EASILY ATTAINABLE GIVEN SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. WILL                     
THEREFORE RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE                  
EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WITH THE               
DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FLOW OFF THE LAKE...PORT HURON SHOULD              
AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 40S.                                            
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 312 AM.                                            
PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NATIONS CAPITAL WILL REMAIN AN INFLUENCE               
ONCE AGAIN TODAY.  H2O VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A VERY                 
AMPLIFIED BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE MOMENT WITH                  
ANOTHER WAVE CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN SET TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN EVEN              
FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  CURRENTLY, RADAR AND METARS SHOW LIGHT               
RAIN EXTENDING ALONG THE RIVERS AND MAKING IT AS FAR INLAND AS                  
I75...BUT SOUTH OF I69.  REALLY, NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING                
THIS WELL WITH BUFFALO RADAR SHOWING ANOTHER BATCH HEADING INTO                 
CANADA.  WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NOT CHANGING MUCH TODAY, WE WILL              
HAVE A SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE PRECIP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE                 
CWA.  IN ADDITION TO THIS CUT-OFF WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS MODELS                 
CONTINUE TO OVER-ESTIMATE STRATUS DECK PER ENHANCED IR SATELLITE.               
WHEN IT COMES TO INITIALIZATION, ONE WOULD HAVE THE FAVOR THE GFS.              
TODAY...                                                                        
OUR SHORT TERM ISSUE IS ONGOING LIGHT RAIN (ALTHOUGH REFLECTIVITIES             
ARE INCREASING) FROM KPHN-KTTF.  BASED ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION,             
A WEAK JET APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE EAST MIGHT BE ENHANCING THE             
LIFT SOMEWHAT WHICH WOULD "CLEAR" THE AREA SOMETIME THIS MORNING.               
THIS WOULD FAVOR KEEPING THE HIGH POPS FOR THOSE EASTERN COUNTIES               
WHICH WOULD COVER METRO DETROIT WHILE TOWARD THE TRI-CITIES LITTLE              
IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THEY WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS               
AND SUBSIDENCE FIELD.  AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, WE DID SEE A FAIR             
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WHICH AIDED IN TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO 50F.                 
WHILE THICKNESSES ARE A BIT COOLER, WE WILL PLACE THE WARMER VALUES             
OVER WESTERN CWA AND COOLER READINGS WITH MORE CLOUDS, LIGHT PRECIP             
AND TRAJECTORIES OVER THE COOL WATERS OF LAKE HURON EASTERN                     
COUNTIES.  MODEL CONSENSUS SLOWLY MIGRATES UPPER LOW EAST OF THE                
NATIONS CAPITAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT                
DEPARTING THE REGION.  HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR SCATTERED             
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THOSE EASTERN COUNTIES WITH A CHANCE FURTHER                  
INLAND AND KEEP MOST OF THE TRI CITIES REGION DRY THIS AFTERNOON.               
TONIGHT...                                                                      
AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA, THIS SHOULD BE             
ENOUGH OF A KICKER TO PUSH THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR                  
SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO MOVE ON IN TONIGHT.  WE WILL                 
THEREFORE GO WITH A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO             
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 30S BASED ON TRAJECTORIES.  QUESTION REMAINS              
CLOUD COVER AS, AGAIN, MODELS ARE LIKELY OVER-ESTIMATING THE AMOUNT             
OF STRATUS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS OVERNIGHT.  WE WILL ALLOW FOR                
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOSTLY CLEAR              
SKIES ACROSS THE INLAND SECTIONS INCLUDING THE TRI CITIES REGION.               
SATURDAY...                                                                     
UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES AS IT BECOMES ENTRENCHED INTO OUR NORTHWEST             
FLOW REGIME.  THIS MAY ALLOW SOUTHEAST LOWER TO SEE SOME PRE-FRONTAL            
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING BUT HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE WILL DICTATE            
THE AMOUNT OF WARMING WE WILL OBSERVE.  FOR THE MOMENT, MOST AREAS              
SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 50 AS TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE               
FRONT IN LOWER CANADA WERE ABLE TO SNEAK BY TO THE LOWER 50S.                   
IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICAL SYSTEM WITH MID LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE                 
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET                
NOSES INTO THE LOWER PART OF OUR STATE.  BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES             
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN, BUT THAT WILL BE             
CHANGING IN A HURRY COMING TOWARD SUNSET.                                       
SATURDAY NIGHT...                                                               
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST AS 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TOWARD THE SUB-TEENS            
AS SPRING TURNS BACK TO WINTER (YET, WE MOVE FORWARD WITH OUR                   
CLOCKS).  PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS                 
ATTENTION FOCUSES TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW (YES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW!).             
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS POINTS TOWARD THE /POTENTIAL/ AS                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5K FEET AND AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE              
LAKE.  DELTA T/S ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS BUT THE QUESTION OF WIND               
TRAJECTORIES AND SPEEDS REMAINS IS A CONCERN.  GRADIENT WILL LIKELY             
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH SO LAKE AGGREGATE BANDS SHOULD NOT BE A DECIDING            
FACTOR AND LAND BREEZES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER.  GFS 1000-850            
WINDS SHOW AN AVERAGE OF 35-40 KNOTS WHICH SUGGESTS AMBIENT TIME                
OVER THE WATER WILL BE REDUCED BUT DIRECTION APPEARS TO BE 330-350              
DEGREES WHICH BRINGS ANY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE M25 CORRIDOR AND               
ABOUT 10-20 MILES INLAND.  FOR NOW, WE WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS FOR ADJACENT LAKE HURON COUNTIES WITH SNOW AMOUNTS GRIDS AN             
INCH OR LESS.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S.                        
SUNDAY...                                                                       
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY NOT HELP MUCH WITH OUR TEMPERATURES WITH             
PROGGED 850MB TEMPS STILL WELL BELOW ZERO.  BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS                
SUGGEST DRY ADIABATIC DECENT WOULD BRING NEAR 40 SOUTH AND MID-UPPER            
30S NORTH (COOLER NEAR THE WATER).                                              
LOOKING AHEAD BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE...                                          
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH RECORD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY                 
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWEST            
WHICH IS CONSIDERED A DOWNSLOPE AFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER.  COLUMN             
DRIES OUT AND WE MIGHT SEE OUR WINDS DECOUPLE.  PROGGED DEWPOINTS               
FOR AROUND 10F, YET OUR NIGHTTIME PERIOD WILL BE REDUCED WITH LESS              
HOURS OF DARKNESS.  FOR NOW, WE WILL CALL FOR LOWS INTO THE UPPER               
TEENS-LOWER 20S.  RECORDS TO WATCH FOR ARE MBS (14), FNT (13), AND              
DTW (16).  NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND WITH A QUICK WARM              
ADVECTION PATTERN, IT LOOKS TO BE A RAIN EVENT.  THIS IS TO BE                  
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR FOR MID WEEK.                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
930 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT AS                
IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TODAY AND SOME HEATING TAKES CLOUDS            
SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. WITH TEMPS INLAND ALREADY AT OR NEAR                
FORECAST HIGHS WILL UP THESE TEMPS JUST A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.                
LATEST RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION                
THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF MSTR.              
STILL WITH UPPER LOW CLOSE BY AFTN WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS             
WITH BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED                        
THUNDER...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH COVERAGE.                                      
.MARINE...SFC LOW AT 14Z WAS OVER S DELMARVA PENINSULA. ONLY CHANGE             
WILL BE TO TWEAK WORDING FOR THE INCREASE IN WINDS, OTHERWISE, NO               
CHANGES. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK. SEAS STILL 5 FT AT BUOY 41025 SO WILL           
KEEP SCEC GOING FOR WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.                   
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MLF/WS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
720 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
01Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE WITH              
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. A NICE RISE/FALL COUPLET          
NOTED WITH BOUNDARY SUGGESTING STEADY MOVEMENT TO CONTINUE. IN WAKE             
OF FRONT FAIRLY STIFF NORTHERLY FLOW NOTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS              
IN FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOBE OF VORTICITY HELPING TO KICK               
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. EXAMINATION OF KMVX RADAR             
INDICATED BAND OF WEAKENING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST                 
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. APPEARS ACTIVITY             
FALLING APART AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR (HIGHER CONDENSATION PRESSURE          
DEFICITS).                                                                      
RUC MODEL ADVERTING VERY PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO FRONT AND SHOWERS                
WITH BEST Q-VECTOR 700MB CONVERGENCE ALREADY EAST OF US...THUS FEEL             
PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD GO BY THE BOARD BY LATE EVENING. IN                 
WAKE OF FEATURE EXPECT CLEARING TO WORK INTO AREAS FROM NORTHWEST               
TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES ON ENDING TIMING OF                   
SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY OTHER DEVIATIONS FROM CURRENT               
THINKING.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY FOR NE ND AND ADJACENT           
NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES OF MN. CALLS TO COUNTIES INDICATE SOME                 
TOWNSHIP ROADS REMAIN UNDERWATER. AREA WITH THE MOST PROBLEMS IS THE            
TOWNER COUNTY AREA NEAR EGLAND WHERE SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS HAVE                  
WASHED OUT OVER THE LAST DAY WITH SNOW MELT/RUN OFF INCREASING IN               
LAST 24 HOURS HERE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...FLOOD WARNING FOR TOWNER/CAVALIER/PEMBINA/BENSON/RAMSEY/WALSH/             
     EDDY/GRAND FORKS/GRIGGS/NELSON/STEELE/COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SUN.            
MN...FLOOD WARNING FOR KITTSON/MARSHALL COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SUN.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1017 AM EST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST RUC SHOWING WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL              
PUT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY UP. WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE                           
STRONGER IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OTHERWISE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE                  
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041              
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY GAZ040-063>065-077                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CDL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1054 AM CST FRI APR 02 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL DAY...WITH FIRE BEHAVIOR PROBABLY THE BIGGEST                
CONCERN.  HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT AND BACKED INTO ERN              
CWA...AND AIRMASS IS VERY VERY DRY TO E AS EVIDENCED BY MPX RAOB.               
HOWEVER...NOT MUCH WIND IN PROFILERS WITH 3-7KTS IN LOWEST 7 KFT AT             
WDL. BIG CHANGE TODAY IS CI OVERHEAD...FIRST CLOUDS IN A COUPLE DAYS.           
RUC AND EVEN ETA SUGGEST ADDING A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO TMPS IS                  
WISE...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY WK FLOW AND SOME THIN CI.  DESPITE THESE            
MINOR CHANGES...GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER REMAINS BELOW THE VERY HIGH               
CATEGORY AND WL NOT ALTER PREVIOUS STATEMENT.                                   
GRIDS PREVIOUSLY UPDATED...AND ZONES OUT SOON.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
520 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS ON             
RADAR AND LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING                
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNSTABLE SURFACE                  
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TX.            
RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH            
OF THE BIG BEND WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO BACK BUILD OVER THE                
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE                
NORTHWEST AND EARLIER HAIL EVENT OVER KENEDY COUNTY, HAVE INCLUDED              
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SPC IS CURRENTLY             
MONITORING DEEP SOUTH TX FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A S/WV TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED PVA HAS MOVED              
NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING SOME SCATTERED                 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF DEEP SOUTH              
TEXAS BY THIS EVENING DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR                     
THUNDERSTORMS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF              
YEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE OUT OF             
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                            
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 80 66 78 66/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
BROWNSVILLE         68 83 65 80 65/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
HARLINGEN           67 84 63 82 64/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
MCALLEN             66 86 63 84 63/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
RIO GRANDE CITY     64 86 61 84 62/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  69 78 67 77 67/ 50 00 00 10 10                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...58                                                            
MESO...VEGA                                                                     
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
431 AM CST FRI APR 2 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AT 10Z...ISLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ONGOING OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS            
A WEAK SHTWV TROF IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LARGE            
UPR-LOW CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN               
CAL. MEANWHILE...STRONG SHTWV TROF ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF             
UPR LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MX...AND FCST TO MOVE NNE THRU               
WTX TODAY.  THIS SHTWV KICKED OFF STG CONVECTION OVER DAVIS MTN                 
AROUND 6Z...BUT AS OF 10Z THE STORMS ARE LOSING THEIR PUNCH AS THEY             
MOVE INTO THE PECOS VALLEY. REMNANTS OF THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO              
OUR SW COUNTIES BY 6 AM.                                                        
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN JETSTREAM ENERGY WITH THIS NEXT SHTWV IS FCST TO              
REMAIN WELL WEST OF TX...UPR-LVL DIVERGENCE AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES             
WILL INCREASE AS IT PASSES. THE LIFT SHOULD ARRIVE FAIRLY EARLY                 
TODAY...AROUND NOON...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD            
FROM THE SW THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA DURING THE AFTN. HEAVY RAINFALL               
LOOKS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS...PRECIP WATER AROUND 1 INCH AND FCST              
STORM MOTION A FAIRLY SLOW 10-20 MPH. TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN              
PROBABLE IN MANY PLACES. WEAK CDFNT ALSO LIES ACROSS THE SPLNS AND              
SHOULD PROVIDE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT TO AID STORMS DVLPMNT.              
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR SVR TSTMS TODAY.  RUC AND             
MESOETA FCST 1000-1500 J/KG CAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING              
THE EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS IS DEPENDENT ON SUBSTANTIAL HEATING              
WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR AS IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL                 
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM            
ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE. FORCING FOR PRECIP BEGINS TO SHIFT            
NE AFTER DARK...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE             
SW. ETA DEPICTS ANOTHER CDFNT TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE                
AFTER 10 PM...BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE ENE AND USHERING IN SOME             
COOLER AIR.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SW US UPPER LOW TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD TWD WEST TEXAS FROM THE                   
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AM EXPECTING ONGOING                   
CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN ZONES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...                 
DISSIPATING OR MOVING OUT OF THE FA BY 18Z SATURDAY. FROM THAT                  
POINT THROUGH MONDAY IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC                  
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY EJECTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN MODERATE                   
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE LOCATION              
OF THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMIC LIFT IN PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW...WILL               
TEND TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE WRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY                
NIGHT THEN CONTINUE THE SHOTGUN APPROACH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS             
THE MAIN LIFT IMPINGES ON THE FA BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST                
TUESDAY. MASSAGED OTHER GRID ELEMENTS AS WELL...BUT CHANGES WERE                
RELATIVELY MINOR.                                                               
NEWEST GFS EXTENDED RUN SHOWS ANOTHER SRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO              
EFFECT THE FA LATE NEXT WEEK. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS GENERALLY FAIR                 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FRIONA       69  50  59  40 /  80  80  60  40                                   
TULIA        70  49  61  41 /  80  80  60  30                                   
PLAINVIEW    70  49  62  41 /  80  80  60  40                                   
LEVELLAND    68  52  63  42 /  80  80  60  50                                   
LUBBOCK      70  52  64  43 /  80  80  50  40                                   
BROWNFIELD   71  52  65  44 /  80  70  60  50                                   
CHILDRESS    73  50  64  44 /  80  80  60  30                                   
SPUR         73  55  63  44 /  80  80  40  30                                   
ASPERMONT    75  56  63  45 /  80  80  40  30                                   
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
33/07                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
240 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
...DRY WX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...                         
.CURRENTLY...LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID ATLC AREA               
WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE SC COAST. LATEST GOES-12                 
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW SMALL PATCH OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCD               
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST NEXT FEW HRS. SFC           
HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM               
OVER THE WRN ATLC. W TO NW FLOW OVER THE REGION CONTS WITH TEMPS                
LARGELY IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE               
UPPER 40S. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAN LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS                
MOSTLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY NOT           
SEE THE UPPER 30S LIKE FRI MORNING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...AS LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE MID            
ATLC AREA TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG ONE REPLACES IT BY SUN AFTN AS IT              
DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER                  
WRN ATLC MOVES NE...HIGH PRES WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA              
TODAY INTO SUN. LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN FRI BUT WILL              
OCCASIONAL BE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN AS WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. PREFER MAV           
GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY AS IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY RUC MODEL.              
THE SECOND STRONG TROUGH WILL LOWER THICKNESSES AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE           
SE GA AREA SUN WITH BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING DRY FROPA OVER SRN GA           
AROUND 18Z SUN...AND THEN OVER SRN ZONES LATE EVENING SUN NIGHT.                
STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY             
CONDS ON SUN. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED MON MORNING WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE             
OVER SE GA AND NEAR 40 ACROSS SRN ZONES BUT BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON              
HOW LIGHT WINDS WILL GET. COOL TEMPS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN AS                     
THICKNESSES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUE-FRI. GFS AND ETA SHOW SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE                
STATES TUE WITH NLY FLOW BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM BY TUE NIGHT.                   
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ACROSS MID TO HIGH LEVEL                  
MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING ALLOWING LOW/HIGH             
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NUMBERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED COMING ACROSS             
THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WED WILL GRADUALLY BRING LOW-MID LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND S. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED WED            
NIGHT INTO FRI AND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FCST. MAY            
TWEAK TEMPS PENDING NEXT MEX GUIDANCE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AREA BUOYS REPORTED WNW WINDS ~20G25 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE            
WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE COASTAL OBS INDICATE WINDS OF ONLY ~10 KTS.           
SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR WNA GUIDANCE AT 06Z...GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT RANGING         
FROM 3-6 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY /SCA/ THIS         
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN OBSERVED WINDS AND EXERCISE               
CAUTION /SCEC/ FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW          
HEADLINES THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT               
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SUN. THE RESULTANT            
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC WILL WARRANT             
SCEC/SCA WINDS OVER TJE NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN AFTN. EXPECT SEAS           
TO BE HELD AROUND 6 FT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO            
DOMINATE THE AREA LATE MON WHICH WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE WINDS & SEAS.            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BLENDED ETA12/AVN MOS DEW PTS TOGETHER AND LOWERED THEM BY           
~2 DEG TO CORRESPOND TO 06Z OBS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTN HAVE SLIGHTLY           
LOWER THAN DRIER MET MOS DEW PTS...WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE MID-UPR           
30S. THESE DEW PTS COMBINED WITH DRY BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MAKE           
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACRS FL ZONES DUE TO RH/S NEAR 30% FOR 4-6 HRS.         
NOTE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ~15 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT DON/T EXPECT MIXING           
TO BE AS STRONG AS YSTDY. ALSO DON/T EXPECT GA ZONES TO NEAR THE                
CRITICAL 25% VALUE FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL                  
HIGHLIGHT LOW RH/S (~30%) AND NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE REMARKS.            
SUN EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR          
FILTERS IN FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY NEAR             
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE                
INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR SUN AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG 71 41 69 37 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
SSI 70 47 70 44 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
JAX 73 44 73 40 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
SGJ 72 47 73 45 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
GNV 73 42 74 38 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
OCF 72 43 73 40 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                             
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                             
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM.                                             
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20-60 NM.                                             
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHASHY/ENYEDI                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
523 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE SLIDING SE OF            
CWA WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS CLIPPER SHORT WAVE NOW DIVING DOWN                
INTO WRN ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM NEAR CYQT             
INTO N CNTRL MN. DECENT PV MAX AND FAIRLY STRONG 700-300 MB QVECTOR             
CONV AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV SUPPORTING LINE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ALONG            
FRONT DESPITE DRY AIRMASS OVER REGION WITH PWATS AHEAD OF TROF LESS             
THAN A QUARTER INCH.                                                            
THE RUC INITIALIZED BETTER ON UPSTREAM 00Z KINL AND CWPL SNDGS WHILE            
BOTH ETA OR GFS WERE TOO COLD AT LLVLS. EVEN SO...ALL MODELS                    
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPS WILL NOT GET COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY LES              
TODAY. AND COVERAGE OF SYNOPTIC PCPN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY                  
DRYNESS OF AMS IN PLACE. THUS...HAVE ELECTED TO BRING POPS BACK INTO            
CHC CATEGORY FOR TODAY WITH SCT COVERAGE ACROSS CWA. 1000-850 MB                
THCKNS AND WET BULB ZERO PROFILES ON MODELS SUGGEST PCPN TYPE TO                
STAY AS SNOW BUT WL KEEP IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER SE ZONES FOR EARLY             
AFT AS SLOWER ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR AND DOWNSLOPING NW FLOW COULD                 
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS AND LIQUID PCPN THERE.                                   
WINDS COULD GET FAIRLY STRONG BY AFTERNOON AS ETA SNDGS SHOW WINDS              
UP TO 40 KTS WITHIN MIXED LYR. BELIEVE ETA IS SHOWING ITS USUAL HIGH            
BIAS ON WINDS AS IT INITIALIZED TOO HIGH BASED ON UPSTREAM RAOBS.               
NEVERTHELESS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON WIND                
GUSTS APPROACH 40 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN AND                
DOWNSLOPING AREA ALONG LAKE MI.                                                 
MODELS INDICATE THAT 850 MB TEMPS REALLY DON'T GET COLD ENOUGH FOR              
LES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH 850 MB THERMAL TROF TO PASS               
THROUGH AROUND 12Z SUN BRINGING -16 TO -17C TEMPS ACROSS LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT...PUSHED BACK TIMING OF LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW              
UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ALSO TRIMMED BACK LES ACCUMS              
FOR TONIGHT TO INCH OR LESS MOST AREAS WITH MAYBE UP TO TWO INCHES              
POSSIBLE OVER NORTH FACING HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCNTRL AND ERN                     
COUNTIES. KEPT IN SIMILAR AMOUNTS FOR SUNDAY WITH LES TAPERING OFF              
SUN AFT AS THERMAL TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA AS INVERSION HGTS BEGIN              
TO LOWER BELOW 5 KFT WITH INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WITH THE              
INCREASING CAA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVELS WILL BE WELL               
MIXED ALLOWING FOR STRONGER 20-35 MPH WINDS TO REACH SFC. THE STRONG            
WINDS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPING LES WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AS WELL.            
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED BLOWING SNOW FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN            
ZFP AND HWO.                                                                    
SUN NIGHT INTO MON...KEPT IN CHC POPS FOR LES SUN EVENING AS 850 MB             
TEMPS LINGER AROUND -14 TO -15C...BUT THEN LOOKS FOR LES TO END                 
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SFC-850 MB RDG BUILDS MORE OVER                  
REGION AND 850 MB TEMPS WARM ABOVE -10C. CLEARING SKIES AND LGT                 
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND AREAS NEAR WI TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE                  
DIGITS UNDER PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS               
WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH RDGG OVERHEAD. WITH MIDDAY 850 TEMPS                
REBOUNDING TO AROUND -6C...WOULD EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO REACH INTO             
40S ON MONDAY.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
345 AM CST SAT APR 03 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FROPA IN PROGRESS ACRS CWA WITH ABT A HUNDRED MILE WIDE BAND OF                 
OVC015-025. WINDS REVVING A BIT AS WELL AS A DECENT CAA REGIME IS               
UNDERWAY AS THE FRONT MOVS THRU. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY THIS               
MORNING EAST OF THE ST. CROIX BUT WL NOT INCLUDE AS LLVL ST DECK                
SHOULD REALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT                     
TRAVERSES CWA. THIS SHOWN IN META/RUC RH FIELDS. QUITE A POTENT VORT            
SWINGING DOWN INTO WI THIS MORNING HELPING TO RE-CARVE EASTERN TROF.            
OTHER CLOSED LOW WHICH WAS WESTERN ANCHOR OF OMEGA SCHEME WILL                  
CONTINUE TO SIT AND SLOWLY SPIN AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVS SLOWLY EAST.             
SO...OTHER THAN A BRIEF TURN TODAY INTO STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW AS H5              
JET OF 85KTS ZOOMS BY TO OUR EAST...PATTERN REMAINS INTACT AS MEAN              
RIDGE WL AGAIN MOVE OVER CWA STARTING TONIGHT.                                  
SOME GUSTS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERN AS ETA BUFR MOMENTUM XFEW              
SHOWS MIXING TO ABT 6KFT (H8) SO WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME               
30KT GUSTS ESP 15Z TO 20Z. WENT BREEZY MOST LOCALES. MORNING CLOUDS             
WL QUICKLY BREAK UP GIVEN STRONG MIXING AND VRY DRY AIR ABV CLOUD               
LAYER. JUST THINK MOST GUIDANCE A SHADE WARM TDY SO DROPPED THINGS              
DOWN A FEW DEGS WITH SECOND WAVE OF CAA DUE IN AFTN. THERE HAVE BEEN            
HINTS IN META RH FIELDS OF ANOTHER BATCH OF SC FOR WRN WI                       
OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THIS...THINK CAA STRONG               
ENOUGH AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN CYCLONIC FLOW TO BE PSBL...SO            
INDICATED THIS IN GRIDDED SKY FIELDS. COOL TONIGHT BUT WENT WARMER              
THAN MOST MOS AS MIXING WL CONT THRU MUCH OF NIGHT.                             
SUNDAY SEES CONT MAINTENANCE OF WRN SPLIT FLOW WITH SUBTROPICAL JET             
WAY DOWN IN MEXICO AND OVR GULF. ANOTHER STRONG DRY CANADIAN HIGH               
COMES DOWN WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LOW DEWPTS...MUCH LIKE YDAY. SOME             
WEAK CAA STILL SO TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TDY. CONT CLEAR AND              
COOL NIGHT SUN NIGHT.                                                           
MONDAY/MON NIGHT A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING...AS MUCH WARMER BUBBLE              
OF AIR SLIDES OFF HIGH TERRAIN AHEAD OF ETA INDICATED POSITIVE TILT             
TROF. STRONG WAA ENSUES ON BACKSIDE OF HIGH...AND WITH DRY ATMS IN              
PLACE...RAPID WARMING SHUD COMMENCE. IF HIGH CLDS CAN STAY OUT...MAY            
APPROACH 70 VCTY CANBY/MADISON/REDWOOD FALLS AS SWLY LLVL FLOW                  
NORMAL TO BUFFALO RIDGE SHUD INDUCE SOME NICE DOWNSLOPE WARMING. BUT            
HI CLDS WL LIKELY BE IN PLACE GIVEN STRONG MID LVL THETA-E ADV IN               
ALL MDLS. STILL...LIKELY WL SEE 35-40 DEG DIURNAL SWING FROM COOL               
MONDAY MORNING TO BREEZY...DRY MON AFTN. WITH VRY DRY CONDS OVR                 
CWA...FIRE POTENTIAL WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...DESPITE THE FACT RED               
FLAG CRITERIA WL NOT BE MET. KEPT LOW POPS FOR MON NIGHT AS FRONT               
SLIPS THRU.                                                                     
LONGER TERM...REVIEWING THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME                     
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN WEDNESDAY              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLLABORATION HAS YIELDED A SMALL CHANCE IN              
THESE AREAS. SOME CONCERN FOR THE THURSDAY FORECAST AS WELL BUT THE             
ENSEMBLE PRECIP IS TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL LEAVE IT DRY. NO OTHER                 
CHANGES                                                                         
MADE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU/RAH                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1035 PM CST FRI APR 2 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TORNADIC SUPERCELL OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STARR COUNTY             
HAS FINALLY COLLAPSED THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND            
RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER             
RIO GRANDE PLAINS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. RADAR              
IMAGES INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST                  
MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE COASTAL BEND. LATEST LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS              
INDICATES INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND NORTHEAST                
MEXICO. LATEST MESOETA PROGS DRIER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE NORTHWEST             
TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AT 7PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 17G29KTS AND               
SEAS 4 FEET. WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE AND GUSTY THIS EVENING AS                 
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS ROLL ACROSS THE                 
COASTAL WATERS. A SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE                
WESTERN VALLEY SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE OVERNIGHT               
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. MOST OF TOMORROW SHOULD BE CALMER AS               
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE REGION MOVES TO THE                     
NORTHEAST. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS             
ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND             
EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN VALLEY WILL MOVE ACROSS                
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AVIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF                 
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOW CIGS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND REDUCED                  
VISIBILITY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW                   
MORNING. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS MAINLY             
WITH LOWER CIGS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT              
TRENDS ON RADAR AND LAPS SURFACE ANALYSIS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS                 
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UNSTABLE               
SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF DEEP              
SOUTH TX. RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS INDICATES SHORTWAVE               
TROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG BEND WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO BACK BUILD            
OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH              
TO THE NORTHWEST AND EARLIER HAIL EVENT OVER KENEDY COUNTY, HAVE                
INCLUDED POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...SPC IS              
CURRENTLY MONITORING DEEP SOUTH TX FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.                    
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...58                                                            
MESO...VEGA                                                                     
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
1110 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                      
RHS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES             
AND RUC INDICATES THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE              
EXPANDED THE RFW TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS COUNTY                 
THROUGH 7 PM TONIGHT.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 955 AM...                                             
.CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. W/NW               
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MAX TEMPS SUPPRESSED ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT               
ZONES DOING WELL SO NO UPDATES PLANNED. RHS STARTING FALL ACROSS THE            
AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN              
PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES           
AND IF THEY CONTINUE TO DROP...WILL EXPAND THE RFW TO INCLUDE THOSE             
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOYS REPORTING NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS DOWN TO            
2 TO 4 FEET. WILL DROP THE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NOW BUT HEADLINE                
THAT IT MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS PICK UP AGAIN.                     
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PINELLAS           
  COUNTY.                                                                       
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY FOR LEVY...SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE...                 
  HIGHLANDS...DESOTO AND INLAND CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
914 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
...DRY WX PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...                         
.PUBLIC UPDATE...DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. KJAX 12Z              
SOUNDING INDICATED PWAT AROUND 0.40 INCH. AS ADVERTISED...TODAY WILL BE         
BREEZY BUT NOT WINDY (AS WAS REALIZED FRIDAY) AS WINDS ABOVE THE                
SURFACE ARE NOT AS STRONG. THICKNESS VALUES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...              
THEREFORE PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE KEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF LOWER 70S           
APPEAR REASONABLE. NO UPDATES PLANNED.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE UPDATE...WILL DROP SCEC HEADLINES FOR NEARSHORE WATERS...               
DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS. AREA OBS INDICATE WINDS AND          
SEAS HAVE DECREASE/SUBSIDE AT BIT. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WRT         
CONDITIONS TO FURTHER IMPROVE TODAY...ONLY TO DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT         
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                             
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                             
GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                             
&&                                                                              
----------------------------------------------------------------------          
.CURRENTLY...LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID ATLC AREA               
WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE SC COAST. LATEST GOES-12                 
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW SMALL PATCH OF BKN-OVC MID CLOUDS ASSOCD               
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA COAST NEXT FEW HRS. SFC           
HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER MS VALLEY WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM               
OVER THE WRN ATLC. W TO NW FLOW OVER THE REGION CONTS WITH TEMPS                
LARGELY IN THE 50S AT THIS TIME WITH A FEW SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE               
UPPER 40S. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THAN LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS                
MOSTLY IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO WILL LIKELY NOT           
SEE THE UPPER 30S LIKE FRI MORNING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...AS LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER OFF THE MID            
ATLC AREA TODAY...ANOTHER STRONG ONE REPLACES IT BY SUN AFTN AS IT              
DROPS DOWN OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. AS SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER                  
WRN ATLC MOVES NE...HIGH PRES WILL ONLY SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA              
TODAY INTO SUN. LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY THAN FRI BUT WILL              
OCCASIONAL BE BREEZY BY THIS AFTN AS WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. PREFER MAV           
GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY AS IT IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY RUC MODEL.              
THE SECOND STRONG TROUGH WILL LOWER THICKNESSES AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE           
SE GA AREA SUN WITH BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING DRY FROPA OVER SRN GA           
AROUND 18Z SUN...AND THEN OVER SRN ZONES LATE EVENING SUN NIGHT.                
STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY TO OCCASIONAL WINDY             
CONDS ON SUN. COOL TEMPS EXPECTED MON MORNING WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE             
OVER SE GA AND NEAR 40 ACROSS SRN ZONES BUT BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON              
HOW LIGHT WINDS WILL GET. COOL TEMPS ON TAP FOR MON AFTN AS                     
THICKNESSES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...TUE-FRI. GFS AND ETA SHOW SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE                
STATES TUE WITH NLY FLOW BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM BY TUE NIGHT.                   
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ACROSS MID TO HIGH LEVEL                  
MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED WITH AIRMASS MODIFYING ALLOWING LOW/HIGH             
TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO NUMBERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED COMING ACROSS             
THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WED WILL GRADUALLY BRING LOW-MID LEVEL                 
MOISTURE FROM THE SW AND S. MINIMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED WED            
NIGHT INTO FRI AND SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO LONG TERM FCST. MAY            
TWEAK TEMPS PENDING NEXT MEX GUIDANCE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AREA BUOYS REPORTED WNW WINDS ~20G25 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE            
WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE COASTAL OBS INDICATE WINDS OF ONLY ~10 KTS.           
SEAS ARE RUNNING NEAR WNA GUIDANCE AT 06Z...GIVE OR TAKE A FOOT RANGING         
FROM 3-6 FT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY /SCA/ THIS         
MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN OBSERVED WINDS AND EXERCISE               
CAUTION /SCEC/ FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. EXPECT WINDS WILL RELAX BELOW          
HEADLINES THIS AFTN...THEN INCREASE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT               
APPROACHES THE AREA THEN MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS SUN. THE RESULTANT            
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC WILL WARRANT             
SCEC/SCA WINDS OVER TJE NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN AFTN. EXPECT SEAS           
TO BE HELD AROUND 6 FT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO            
DOMINATE THE AREA LATE MON WHICH WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE WINDS & SEAS.            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WX...BLENDED ETA12/AVN MOS DEW PTS TOGETHER AND LOWERED THEM BY           
~2 DEG TO CORRESPOND TO 06Z OBS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTN HAVE SLIGHTLY           
LOWER THAN DRIER MET MOS DEW PTS...WITH VALUES RANGING IN THE MID-UPR           
30S. THESE DEW PTS COMBINED WITH DRY BULB TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S MAKE           
FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACRS FL ZONES DUE TO RH/S NEAR 30% FOR 4-6 HRS.         
NOTE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ~15 KTS THIS AFTN...BUT DON/T EXPECT MIXING           
TO BE AS STRONG AS YSTDY. ALSO DON/T EXPECT GA ZONES TO NEAR THE                
CRITICAL 25% VALUE FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS THIS AFTN...BUT WILL                  
HIGHLIGHT LOW RH/S (~30%) AND NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE REMARKS.            
SUN EXPECT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR          
FILTERS IN FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO EXPECT BREEZY NEAR             
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE                
INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE WITH A FIRE WX WATCH FOR SUN AT THIS TIME.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ZAPPE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
815 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RUC PROGS SUGGEST WE CAN DROP THE SCEC WORDING            
FOR OUR OUTER WATERS. RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. NO CHANGES               
ARE PLANNED FOR THE ZONE FORECASTS. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS               
AMENDED TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
245 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR...SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY AND GUSTY              
WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE SERN USA...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY).                                           
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EASTERN               
U.S. TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY DRY AND               
MODERATELY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                 
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY).                                          
NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SLIGHT                  
CHANGE THURSDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS               
IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNINGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR FL            
AND AL ZONES (EXCEPT THE COAST). ON SUNDAY RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL BE            
NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES...FL/AL/GA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 74 41 74 36 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
PFN 72 49 73 44 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
DHN 71 44 69 38 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
ABY 71 43 70 37 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
VLD 72 42 72 38 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
CTY 73 45 73 38 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY NOON UNTIL SUNSET.                                  
     RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET.                                    
GA...RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET.                                    
FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY NOON UNTIL SUNSET.                                  
     RED FLAG WARNING SUN NOON UNTIL SUNSET.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CURRENT DISCUSSION: TJT                                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 16                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
952 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...WEATHER MATCHING WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.  WILL UPDATE            
TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO MORNING.  OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FOR NOW.                  
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF              
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE MID LEVELS              
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE              
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT                       
ELEVATION SNOW EVENT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                              
CURRENTLY...SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE                  
FORECAST AREA.  THE AWIPS RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF               
ACTIVITY...BUT GYX ETL PROFILER SHOWS THE INVERSION IS ABOUT 1 KM               
DEEP.  TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO IT                
DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS MUCH OF A PROBLEM.                
THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM                  
BECOMING WIDESPREAD SO FAR...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK.             
IN THE SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS            
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TODAY...AND THE DEVELOPMENT            
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE/CLOSING             
LOW IN THE MID LEVELS.                                                          
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING                
HOURS...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD BREAK IN THE               
AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF WARMING FROM ABOVE.  THE IR SATELLITE LOOP              
INDICATES THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH ABOVE THE INVERSION...WHICH SHOULD             
HELP ERODE THE INVERSION FROM THE TOP.  NOT SURE THAT THIS WARMING              
WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW NUMEROUS BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL               
WORD THE FORECAST AS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO ACCOUNT FOR BREAKS THAT MAY               
APPEAR AS THE INVERSION BREAKS.                                                 
THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE WHILE THE INVERSION IS IN                  
PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD TEND TO WANE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS TO LESSEN.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP                    
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING MUCH ABOVE THE CONSENSUS MOS VALUES FOR              
TODAY.                                                                          
ANY BREAKS WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM              
ARRIVE.  THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON THE WATER VAPOR               
LOOP...AND THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL                     
APPROACH BEFORE DAYBREAK.  THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE                 
INCREASED OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE              
THAT THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW...BUT                 
SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY AT -10 C...WILL INDICATE LIGHT             
RAIN.  COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...AND WILL INDICATE             
THIS.  WITH THE CLOUDS...WUOLD NOT EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO GET                 
MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS VALUES.                                             
FOR SUNDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE            
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...AND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE BEEN              
INCREASED TO ACCOUNT.  THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO WARM FOR                    
ANYTHING OTHER THAN RAIN FOR NOW.  THE MOS VALUES FOR SUNDAY APPEAR             
TO BE TOO WARM...AND WILL SHADE THIS DOWN A BIT.                                
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PRESENT THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR              
THIS PACKAGE.  THE ETA/GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH                    
RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FEATURES.  HOWEVER...THE GFS              
HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND IS FAVORED FOR                 
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ENOUGH COLD AIR RETURNS FOR SNOW IN THE                  
MOUNTAINS AND CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW ELSEWHERE.  THIS COULD BE A              
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE THE                    
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL AID DEVELOPMENT.  MOS NUMBERS ARE            
CLOSE FOR BOTH PERIODS AND ARE ACCEPTED.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WILL HOLD ONTO SCA FOR SEAS...WITH SEAS RUNNING AROUND 6 FT...AND               
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DROP TODAY. USE RUC FOR THIS MORNINGS WINDS               
(ETA/GFS UNDERDONE). BEYOND...ETA/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
POSITIONING OF THE LOW...USE A COMPROMISE TO SMOOTH OUT ANY                     
DIFFERENCES. DID RAISE WINDS TUESDAY BASED ON GFS/UKMET/EUROPEAN                
CONSENSUS PUTTING US IN A DECENT NW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW.                        
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SCA.                                                                       
NH...SCA.                                                                       
$$                                                                              
JFR/HAYES                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1122 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTN ARE WINDS AND SNOW.                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING SSE THRU WRN            
UPPER MI...AND 12Z RAOBS INDICATE IMPRESSIVE 12HR 5H HEIGHT FALLS               
OF 180M AT KINL AND 200M AT CWPL. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST            
LEFT OF SHORTWAVE TRACK COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL NNWRLY               
FLOW LEADING TO CLASSIC TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW AREA TIED TO HIGHER               
TERRAIN OF NW UPPER MI THIS MORNING (FROM FAR WRN MARQUETTE COUNTY              
TO ONTONAGON COUNTY AND KEWEENAW). HAD A REPORT AT 11 AM OF ABOUT               
2.5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR AT MOHAWK WITH SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON            
SIDE ROADS. AWAY FROM THIS AREA...PCPN IS MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE                 
INTERMITTENT. SECONDARY AREA OF -SN/FLURRIES IS MOVING SSE THRU WRN             
ONTARIO TO THE NW OF CYQT. APPEARS THIS AREA IS RELATED TO 5H                   
THERMAL TROF WHICH IS DRIVING SSE. CYPL SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOWED                
STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM FROM 800-550MB UNDERNEATH THE THERMAL            
TROF.                                                                           
TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN LAKES TODAY...WEAKLY                  
CLOSING OFF INTO A 5H LOW OVER LWR MI BY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE            
INDICATIONS ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THAT A COMMA HEAD TYPE               
SNOW AREA IS TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER NW INTO NCNTRL UPPER MI ATTM             
(JUST LEFT OF SHORTWAVE TRACK)...STILL THINK SNOW WILL QUICKLY                  
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS FARTHER SE. AS IT            
DOES SO...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW OVER NW UPPER MI WILL ALSO                
DIMINISH. ARRIVAL OF COLD POOL MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME            
INCREASE IN -SHSN LATER IN THE AFTN AGAIN. EXPECT ADDITIONAL AFTN               
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW E ACROSS THE                 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF                
THERE. FOR SW UPPER MI...SHORTWAVE TRACK OVERHEAD ATTM NOT FAVORABLE            
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHSN WITH DRY SLOT PASSING...BUT EXPECT                  
DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE SOME -SHSN/FLURRIES DURING THE AFTN.                
OVER SCNTRL/SE FCST AREA...NNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSLOPING               
RESULTING IN LIGHTER PCPN (SNOW/RAIN DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER).               
AS FOR WINDS...WIND ADVY FOR LAKE SUPERIOR BORDER COUNTIES LOOKS                
LIKE A MARGINAL EVENT. CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE DURING               
THE AFTN WITH RUC/ETA SHOWING 950MB WINDS INCREASING TO 40KT FROM               
THE KEWEENAW EWD. OVER THE FAR W HOWEVER...950MB WINDS ONLY INCREASE            
TO AROUND 30KT...BUT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN MARGINAL              
CONDITIONS EVEN OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI...WILL CANCEL ADVY FOR SRN                 
HOUGHTON/ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC. ALTHOUGH NRLY FLOW IS NOT THE PREFERRED             
DIRECTION FOR HIGH WINDS ON THE KEWEENAW...WILL KEEP ADVY GOING                 
THERE WITH LAKESHORE AREAS FAVORED FOR HIGHEST WINDS. E OF THERE...             
EXPECT MARGINAL ADVY CRITERIA MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR                     
SHORELINE. DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY HELP PUSH             
WINDS TO NEAR ADVY CRITERIA FROM SCHOOLCRAFT OVER TO MENOMINEE                  
COUNTY. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVY THERE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MENTION             
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.                                                         
UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT. ZFP AND NPW WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                         
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                     
 WIND ADVY UNTIL 04Z MIZ001-003>007-085                                         
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
955 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
KBUF/KTYX RADARS SHOWING SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING FROM THE GENESEE            
VALLEY EASTWARD THIS MORNING...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES                     
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW. 12Z KBUF SOUNDING WAS SATURATED               
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700 MB. SOUNDING WAS BELOW ZERO ABOVE               
920 MB. THEREFORE...SEE LITTLE REASON TO MENTION SNOW FOR LOWER                 
ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE.             
ANY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KBUF SOUNDING ALSO               
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40F...THEREFORE WILL              
LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.                                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEARING NOT THAT FAR OFF TO             
THE WEST. FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTHEAST             
LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO...BASICALLY UNDERNEATH               
SHORT WAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR. EASTERN               
EDGE OF THIS CLEARING NEAR AN ERIE PENNSYLVANIA TO HAMILTON ONTARIO             
LINE.                                                                           
LATEST MESOETA AND RUC SUGGESTING AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS A LITTLE                  
FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY THIS             
AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE FAR WEST               
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO OPTIMISTIC AS 925 MB-850 MB               
MOISTURE REMAINS VERY HIGH. COULD SEE SOME SUNNY BREAKS...ESPECIALLY            
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY.                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
ONCE WE GET INTO TONIGHT...THE UPSTREAM WAVE QUICKLY ADVANCES INTO              
THE AREA AND MERGES WITH THE LEFTOVER DEFORMATION ZONE...FORMING A              
CUTOFF LOW NEAR KBGM AND A RESULTING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN NY STATE              
BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...PCPN WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP IN THE WEST            
AND OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT...EVENTUALLY             
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN ON THE BACKSIDE              
OF THE SYSTEM. FEEL THAT THE ETA PROBABLY HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE            
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER THAN THE GFS...AS THE MET GUIDANCE/2-M                 
TEMPS OFF THE ETA BUFKIT SEEMS MORE REALISTIC FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS            
OF THE FORECAST THAN THE CORRESPONDING MAV GUIDANCE. WILL THEREFORE             
SPEED UP THE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH            
ALL LOCATIONS CHANGED OVER BY ABOUT 06Z.                                        
ONCE THE CHANGEOVER OCCURS...BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT WE WILL BE UNDER            
A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE REAR OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE FIRST                
PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AREAS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO                   
AFFECTED THE LONGEST. IN TERMS OF QPF/SNOWFALL...WE FEEL THAT THE               
WETTER GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION COMPARED TO THE                 
ETA...AS ITS STRONGER OMEGA FIELD SEEMS MUCH MORE REALISTIC GIVEN               
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS (WHICH ARE PRETTY MUCH               
THE SAME ON BOTH MODELS). THEREFORE...THE FORECASTED SNOWFALL                   
AMOUNTS WILL BE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GFS AND WILL BE AS FOLLOWS:              
AREAS WEST OF GENESEE VALLEY: 1" TONIGHT/1-3" SUNDAY                            
GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES: 1" TONIGHT/2-4" SUNDAY                             
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO: 1" TONIGHT/3-6" SUNDAY                              
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE             
IN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH AIR AT 850 MB             
(-10C) STARTS SPILLING ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.                      
ONCE THE SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL               
LEAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BEHIND...AS ANY LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO                   
MAINTAIN ITSELF DESPITE THE REALTIVELY SHORT FETCH AND RESIDENCE                
TIME OVER THE LAKES...DUE TO 850 T'S OF -13C OR COLDER. DIURNAL                 
EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY BREAK UP THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT MONDAY                     
AFTERNOON...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MINIMAL ACTIVITY             
HANGING AROUND IN SOME FORM RIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHEN THE AIRMASS               
WILL WARM ENOUGH TO FINALLY SHUT OFF THE ACTIVITY.                              
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE WELL STACKED LOW HAS SETTLED OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST BUT WESTERN             
NEW YORK REMAINS IN A WEAKER FLOW OF SATURATED AIR AND DEFORMATION              
ZONE PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH            
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN IMPROVING TREND TO MAINLY MFVR                      
CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE KICKS OUT              
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED US FOR DAYS.  UNFORTUNATELY THE                  
DIGGING SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY            
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RETURN OF IFR CIGS AND LIFR VSBYS.  NORTHWEST                
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY.                                           
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...TMA/JJR                                                                
AVIATION...TJP                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1015 AM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                      
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST              
AND UPR LOW WOBBLING AROUND OFF COAST MD/DE. WV SAT SHOWS DRIER AIR             
ALOFT NOW S AND W OF A LINE FROM ROA TO RDU...AND CAN SEE A FEW                 
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON VIS SAT DEVELOPING TO THE LEE OF THE                    
APPALACHIANS. HAS BEEN SOME PRECIP ACRS ERN SHORE AND ANOTHER AREA              
OVR PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...MOVING NW TO SE. RUC/WSETA SHOW PRESENCE            
OF A WEAK JET STREAK MOVNG SWD FROM PA INTO CNTRL VA THIS                       
MRNG...PUSHING E TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTN. THIS JET IS LIKELY                  
ENHANCING PRECIP IN STILL FAIRLY MOIST WRAP ARND FLOW BEHIND THE UPR            
LOW. FOR ZONE UPDATE WILL TREND A BIT CLOUDIER IN FCST AND KEEP SOME            
MENTION OF SHWRS INTO AFTN ERN ZONES. BEST CHC FOR SOME SUN WILL BE             
W OF I-95 AND WILL WORD AFTN AS PSUNNY FOR PIEDMNT/AND FOR INLAND               
NC...BECMG PSUNNY LATE CNTRL VA/FAR. ...MCDY EAST. TEMPS ON TRACK               
WEST...MAY TWEAK DOWN A FEW DGRS EAST W/ MORE CLOUDS. WINDY                     
TOMORROW...MORE ON THAT W/ AFTN PACKAGE.                                        
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BROWN                                                                           
_________________PREV AFD BELOW______________________                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW CENTER FINALLY E OF THE VA               
CAPES...WITH THE ENHANCED/HIGHER CLOUD TOPS (WARM CONVEYOR BELT)                
FARTHER E OVER THE GULF STREAM. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY                
BEING SEEN OVER THE WRN COUNTIES (ERN PIEDMONT REGION)...WHERE                  
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW IS SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL                      
CLOUDINESS.                                                                     
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN              
ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE.               
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER ALL AREAS THIS                
AFTN (ESP OVER WRN/CEN AREAS) WITH THE DOWNSLOPING W-NW LOW LEVEL               
FLOW AND ABSENCE OF DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS SHOULD                 
REBOUND QUITE NICELY WITH ANY SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...AT OR A FEW                  
DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE 850-700 MB THERMAL RIDGE                  
(AHEAD OF NEXT NRN STREAM TROUGH) COINCIDING WITH THE DOWNSLOPE                 
FLOW.                                                                           
TONIGHT...VIGOROUS NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE QUICKLY                
INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. SURFACE REFLECTION (FRONT) IS TOUGH TO                
DISTINGUISH GIVEN THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ALREADY IN PLACE...HOWEVER THE            
FRONT BECOMES CLEARLY EVIDENT OFF THE COAST BY 12Z. MUCH COLDER AIR             
WILL USHER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE                
PAST FEW DAYS PER THE GFS/ETA (WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TERMS              
OF STRENGTH AND TIMING).                                                        
SUN AND MON...LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST (UP            
TO 5F BELOW MAV GUIDANCE). THIS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES LINKING 1000-            
850 MB TEMPS WITH MAX TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...                  
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE FORECASTED TO              
REMAIN BELOW 1300 M AND AS SUCH EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH               
50/LOWER 50S.                                                                   
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST (EXTENDED PERIOD) WAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE            
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. TEMPS BOUNCE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS TUE                
AND WED...BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S THROUGH THE AREA WED             
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS THIS WEEKEND SPAWNED BY COLD AIR                     
ADVECTION WILL RAISE SEAS ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED            
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED                
SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SBY   55  37  48  27 /  30  10  30  30                                          
OXB   52  40  48  30 /  30  10  30  30                                          
WAL   55  41  49  27 /  30  10  30  30                                          
FVX   60  38  50  24 /  10  10  10  10                                          
RIC   59  42  53  28 /  20  10  10  10                                          
PTB   60  40  54  27 /  20  10  10  10                                          
AKQ   59  39  54  27 /  20  10  10  10                                          
PHF   58  43  54  31 /  30  10  10  10                                          
ORF   56  44  54  34 /  30  10  10  10                                          
ECG   58  43  54  31 /  30  10  10  10                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13/22                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
155 PM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.SHORT RANGE (DAYS 0-3)...                                                      
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE DIVING SWD ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY.             
THIS FEATURE WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LMK FA SOMETIME THIS                
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE,            
WITH ETA BUFKIT SUGGESTING GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES WITHIN WELL              
MIXED POST-FRONTAL BDY LAYER. PER RUC PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELDS,                 
TIMING ON SFC FRONT ~1Z AT KSDF AND ~3Z FOR KLEX/KBWG AREAS. LACK OF            
CLOUDS ON SATELLITE UPSTREAM INDICATING THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE                 
STARVED. BEST 700MB RH FCST WELL NE OF FA TONIGHT-SUNDAY MORNING                
CLOSER TO PATH OF 500MB HEIGHT MINIMUM, HWVR ETA SUGGESTING A FEW               
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE NE OF KLEX AREA AROUND SUNRISE, WHERE            
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FCST COUPLED WITH DECENT SUB-CLOUD LAYER              
LAPSE RATES. THERMAL TROF OVER FA SUNDAY, LEADING TO BELOW NORMAL               
MAXIMA. LOCAL GROWING SEASON GETTING UNDERWAY, WHICH COULD BE                   
IMPACTED BY BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FCST ROUGHLY FROM 2 TO 9 AM             
MONDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR              
TIME BEING. ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS ALREADY GROWING WILL LIKELY NEED TO            
BE SHELTERED OR COVERED SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AND              
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, POINTS TOWARD A WARMING TREND MON INTO TUE.                 
NOTE, DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME BEGINS AT 2 AM TONIGHT FOR MOST OF OUR               
FA. XXV                                                                         
.LONG RANGE (DAYS 4-7)...                                                       
GENERAL PATTERN IS SIMILAR IN MODELS WITH LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST                
MOVING EAST AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. ECMWF DEVELOPS            
STRONGEST LOW. GFS VARIES RUN TO RUN WITH 12Z GFS SHOWING A DEEPER              
LOW A LITTLE MORE LIKE ECMWF. DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT TO               
FORECAST. WILL GO WITH BLEND AND CONSENSUS OF FOR FORECAST.                     
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT                  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO FA ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO            
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE            
ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. LATER RUNS SEEM TO MINIMIZE CHANCE OF                  
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW                 
SHOWERS IN CIRCULATION AROUND LOW BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT AND                
KEEP SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH.                                                      
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR             
GFS MOS, OR FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. MBS                             
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 PM EST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE WINDS TONIGHT.                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER                  
EASTERN CANADA. A CLOSED LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS                  
TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. A RIDGE STRETCHES ALONG THE              
EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD HIGH OVER THE RED RIVER OF THE NORTH                 
VALLEY. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW USHERED IN COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA AS               
THE 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LOWERED TO 522DAM OVER THE FORECAST                  
AREA.                                                                           
THE LOWER MICHIGAN MID LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN INTO PENNSYLVANIA                    
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN                        
SASKATCHEWAN AND THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE EAST            
SLOPE OF THIS RIDGE AND THROUGH THE U.P. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH            
INTO MINNESOTA. Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.              
285K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL STABILITY OVER               
THE AREA TONIGHT AT THE SAME TIME THE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT             
WILL DROP TO 200MB. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER             
LAKE SUPERIOR RESULTING IN LAKE-500MB DELTA-T'S OVER 15C. WINDS WILL            
BE OUT OF THE NORTH. LOWEST INVERSION WILL BE AROUND 4K FT.                     
SURFACE-850MB MEAN RH WILL BE AROUND 90 PERCENT. THUS CONDITION WILL            
BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
PRONE AREAS STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE              
WEAK SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY KEEP A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GOING              
THIS EVENING UNTIL THE LAKE EFFECT KICK IN. SURFACE GRADIENTS WILL              
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THIS EVENING AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES. THUS THE                 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL              
STILL BE STRONG BUT LESS THAN ADVISORY LEVEL SO WILL DROP THE                   
ADVISORY. SINCE THE LAKE IS A LITTLE WARMER...THERE IS BETTER CHANCE            
FOR THE WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE OVER THE LAKE THIS EVENING SO GALES             
STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD BE ABLE DROP THEM BY             
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY AS THE                   
SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 850MB THERMAL               
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. DELTA-T'S            
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE MOVE OVER               
THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND DRY AIR               
WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA. SLOWER WINDS WILL INCREASE FETCH TIME                
OVER THE LAKE SO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.                
THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE             
RIDGE BECOMES EMBEDDED OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT             
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO               
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING             
SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO SOUTHERN                    
MANITOBA.                                                                       
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.              
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EASTERN ONTARIO. THE MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE UPPER             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.                                                       
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE U.P MONDAY NIGHT AS THE                  
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE ASSOCIATED               
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL                  
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.                
THUS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. THE 850MB                       
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THUS THE               
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.                                    
AS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE DEPARTS FROM THE AREA ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER                
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AROUND 90            
PERCENT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. 850MB                   
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY FALL TO -3C ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTORS OF              
THE FORECAST AREA. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN.              
THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND            
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING               
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH               
INTO MINNESOTA AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE OHIO RIVER                      
VALLEY...WHILE A LOW IS DEVELOPING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING. SKIES               
SHOULD CLEAR AS DRY AIR ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE STARTS TO SETTLE OVER            
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
THE SASKATCHEWAN TROUGH WILL REACH INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND                  
THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL                 
PUSHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE PROGS BRING THE RIDGE OVER               
THE UPPER MICHIGAN WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER THE AREA.              
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST                 
CANADA WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO ON                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL. THE             
MID LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING MORE               
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS SHOWING A MID LEVEL DOUBLE LOW OVER               
EASTERN CANADA...WHILE CANADIAN GEM PROGGING A LOW OVER SOUTHWEST               
QUEBEC. ECMWF SHOWS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE              
MID LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AT             
THIS TIME I THINK I FAVOR THE ECMWF MODEL.                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING EAST 2/3RDS OF LAKE             
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
300 PM CST SAT APR 3 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WINDS THIS EVENING AND NEXT CHANCE OF           
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORT RANGE RUC PROG STILL MAINTAINING CORE OF 35           
TO 40 KNOT WINDS AT 1000/850 MILLIBAR LEVEL THROUGH 03Z OVR MAINLY              
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CORRESPONDING RUC SURFACE WIND FORECAST            
RUNS 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 03Z. AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN                 
DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD CWA FROM NORTH WISCONSIN DURING AFTERNOON             
HOURS. FEEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED              
CRITERIA FOR WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF               
CWA. BUT FOR THE MOMENT WILL NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY.                        
IN THE LONG TERM...ETA/GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF               
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS CWA SUNDAY...BUT DIVERGE WITH TIMING OF NEXT               
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  ETA MORE AGGRESSIVE               
WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN GFS. AS A RESULT              
ETA SWEEPS PRECIPITATION OUT OF CWA BY 18Z TUESDAY...WHILE GFS HOLDS            
CHANCY PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE GFS IS CLOSE TO           
SAME SOLUTION 24 HOURS AGO WILL MENTION CHANCY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE           
MONDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF CWA AND JUST DURING THE DAY                 
TUESDAY. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MODERATE COLUMN MOISTURE BUT                  
INTENSE AND ENLONGATED VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT             
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO STRONGER THAN A CHANCE AT THIS TIME.                
&&                                                                              
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi