AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
830 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CWA AT THIS TIME WITH STEADIEST             
SNOW ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF CWA ACROSS IROQUOIS COUNTY AND                   
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. META/RUC SHORT TERM PROGS            
SUGGEST THIS AREA STILL HOLDING ONTO SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.              
NEAR THE WI/IL STATELINE ISENTROPIC PROGS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE            
FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE              
REGION HAVE RANGED FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH TO UP TO AN INCH ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND EXTENDING INTO LAKE AND                  
PORTER COUNTIES.                                                                
LOOKING UPSTREAM...UPPER JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO MID MS            
VALLEY TONIGHT WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET SETTING UP ACROSS                   
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. DISTINCT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH JET                
CORE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SRN MN AND THIS WILL HELP              
TO KEEP FLURRIES GOING OVERNIGHT AS THIS FEATURE DROPS TO THE SOUTH.            
DID UPDATE ZONES EARLIER TO CLEAN UP PRECIP WORDING AND TO PUT                  
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA WITH               
AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS REMAINDER OF CWA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR             
TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN MN VORT MAX LATER TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW              
ONLY EXPECTING FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NRN CWA GIVEN DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR            
TO THE NORTH.                                                                   
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON GRIDS/ZONES...                               
TWO BATCHES OF SNOW TODAY. FIRST CAME THRU WITH SOME DECENT                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN 285K AND HIGHER. THAT LEFT DUSTING TO 1/2                 
INCH. A LITTLE STRONGER VORT MAX WITH LITTLE STONGER Q-VECTOR                   
CONVERGENCE TO MOVE IN LATE AFTERNOON/MIDNIGHT WITH ANOTHER DUSTING             
TO 1/2 INCH. MAX GOES THRU FAR SW COUNTIES WITH BEST LIFT THERE AND             
LEAST NE.   SO TOTAL SNOW OVER AREA AROUND 1 INCH AS SNOW                       
EXTREMELY FLUFFY SO A NICE LAYER WITH VERY VERY LITTLE QPF.                     
WE ALSO END UP WITH A LIGHT NNE FLOW AT 925 LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW               
BUT LIGHT NW AT 850 ALONG WITH A LAKE DELTA OF ABOUT 13 SO EXPECT A             
FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW BUT NO ACCUMULATION              
FROM IT.                                                                        
IN LONGER RANGE WE WARM UP. DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS MEX WITH NOW                  
FROZEN GROUND AND SNOW TO OUR S. THINK WILL HAVE A FEW DEGREES CUT              
OUT. IF DPS GET HIGH ENOUGH THEN WE WOULD END UP WITH LOW STRATUS               
WHICH DEFINITELY WOULD HOLD THE HIGHS BACK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A LONG              
DURATION WARM SPELL AS LONG WAVE TROF IS IN WEST CONUS. HOWEVER,                
VERY STRONG RIDGE UP OVER N PACIFIC MEANS SOMETHING COULD COME DOWN             
IT QUICKER THEN NOW SHOWN IN LONGE RANGE. COLD AIR WILL DEFINITELY              
BE BUILDING AGAIN OVER N CANADA.                                                
LOOKING AT 18Z OBS HAVE MESO WARM FRONT DEVELOPING FROM ABUT LAF-DVN            
WITH TEMPS IN U TEENS N AND U20S TO S. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACT ON LOWS            
TONIGHT WITH DECENT NW-SE RANGE.                                                
AF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 00Z TAFS...SMALL SHORT WAVE PASSING THRU NE IL/NW IN EARLY THIS             
EVENING SHUD BE SLIPPING OFF TO THE EAST SOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY             
SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SEEN BEST AT 290K. LIKEWISE SEEN IS                 
ANOTHER MORE DOMINANT WAVE SLIPPING INTO WRN IL. THIS SEEMS TO BE               
SLIDING SOUTH OF TERMINALS THOUGH AND SHUD TAKE LOWEST VSBYS DOWN               
AROUND I-80 ON SOUTH. LATEST RADAR INDICATING BEST RETURNS EVEN                 
FURTHER SOUTH THAN I-80 BUT RATHER INTO LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS                     
COUNTIES. SO WUD EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH AND TO BE NEARLY DONE WITH             
BY 800 PM ACROSS TERMINALS. SFC FRONT EASING PAST NERN IL AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT THOUGH SO THAT TRANSITION OF WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH            
WILL NOT BE BANGING THE DRUM. WINDS GOING VERY LIGHT AND EVEN                   
VARIABLE AND REAPPEARING FROM THE NORTH JUST BEFORE DAWN. MVFR CIGS             
ABOUND IN NWRN IL AND ERN IA NOW...NOT TO MENTION SWRN WI. A SHIFT              
TO NORTH IS LIKELY TO ADVECT SOME LOW CIGS DOWN THIS WAY OVERNIGHT              
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH 850 TEMPS OF -13 TO -16 OVER THE LAKE                 
SUNDAY...WUD EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO ADVECT LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER               
DOWN OVER THE NEAR LAKESHORE TERMINALS IN THE AFTN TOMORROW... WITH             
A SPRITZ OR TWO OF FLURRIES...BUT NOT IMPACTING VSBYS.                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
910 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                          
WILL UPDATE TO ADD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS. GETTING             
A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE THIS MORNING...WITH VISIBLE                 
SATELLITE SHOWING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A            
SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A 15 KT 925 MB FLOW IS LIKELY THE            
CAUSE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT AN GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND                
THIS AFTERNOON...AS 925 MB WINDS DIMINISH AND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES            
BY.                                                                             
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...WITH                    
FLURRIES STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS 925 MB                
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE (SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL                    
TONIGHT).                                                                       
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS SEEM ON TRACK...WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT                  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EVENT.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS LATER              
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE FOR MONDAY.  NO CHANGES TO                  
CURRENT FORECAST THEREAFTER.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR ATTM.  MVFR CLOUDS AND SNOW TO MOVE INTO COASTAL AND            
SOUTHERN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS TONIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEAS STILL JUST BELOW SCA. WILL BUMP WINDS DOWN TODAY ON              
THE UPDATE FOLLOWING LATEST RUC/ETA.                                            
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE: APFFEL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
935 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MSAS AND NWS SFC ANALYSES INDICATE COLD AIR DAMMING EXTENDING                   
SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL VA INTO EAST-CENTRAL GA AT 01Z...AS SFC HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.                
OUTSTANDING FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS THIS EVENING IS THE             
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO            
WHICH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                
NORTHEASTERN GULF...THE COASTAL REGIONS EAST OF MSY...ACROSS MOST OF            
THE FL PENINSULA. INTERESTING MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENT IS THE FORMATION            
OF A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTHERN FL TO THE KEYS AND             
SOUTH TO APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN SHORE OF CUBA.            
ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN IN A BROAD AREA OF                  
ASCENT OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM COASTAL GA NORTHWARD TO THE                  
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE NC BARRIER ISLANDS. 12Z MODELS RUNS  HAVE                   
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW IN THE GULF EARLIER                  
TODAY...AND 18Z GFS 00Z PROG SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN            
GULF VERSUS MSAS ESTIMATED 1002 MB CENTER. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED            
THE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OFF THE GA AND SOUTHERN SC COASTS              
AFTER MIDNIGHT SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE 00Z RUC RUN                
MARGINALLY CLOSER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG TRAILING VORT             
MAX MOVING THROUGH IL ATTM...AND H5 TRAJECTORIES STILL SHOW THIS                
PIECE OF ENERGY ENHANCING CYCLOGENESIS FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO              
SPARE ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FROM THE THREAT              
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA AND            
INTERIOR NE NC. WILL ISSUE SPS FOR ST. MARY'S AND CALVERT COUNTIES              
TO HIGHLIGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THERE SUNDAY.                         
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THIS                  
EVENING...AND CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK WITH               
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20 AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING              
STILL LIKELY BENEATH FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. THEREFORE PLAN NO            
UPDATES TO CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE.                                                
SMITH                                                                           
$$                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...230 PM EST...                                            
SHORT TERM...TNGT AND TMRW...                                                   
VRY DIFFICULT FCST TODAY. 1ST PERIOD FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH               
AC/CI DECK FM SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE S AND ADDL CLDS FM ACTIVE             
NRN STREAM ACROSS THE N. OVRALL PTCLDY LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW WITH                  
INCRSG CLDS FM BOTH DIRECTIONS BY MORN. MDLS NOT SHOWING THE BEST               
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW MOVING            
OUT OF THE GULF. TREND IS FURTHER TO THE W WITH THE PCPN SHIELD FM              
THIS SYS. THIS TREND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVR THE PAST FEW MDL                   
CYCLES. WL FOLLOW THIS TREND AND INCRS POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR SUN                 
AFTN. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVR FAR SRN MD TAPERING QUICKLY BACK TO            
CHC POPS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND SLGT CHC FM THERE TO THE BLUE                 
RIDGE. WHILE THE MAIN PCPN SHIELD WL HV A VRY SHARP CUTOFF...THERE              
STILL REMAINS ENUF UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THAT CUTOFF WILL             
BE TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES FOR ONE MORE MDL CYCLE. FOW NOW WL FCST            
SNFL AMTS AROUND 1 INCH OVER FAR SRN MD QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO THE             
NW. TEMPS TRICKY TMRW...BUT WL KEEP MAXES RIGHT AROUND 32...SHOULD              
WE CLIMB A BIT WARMER...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE. JUST            
W OF THE MAIN PCPN SHELD...A BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WL LIKELY            
CONTRIBUTE TO THE PCPN CHCS SO HV WIDENED THE AREA OF CHC POPS A                
BIT. NO SIG INTRUSIONS OF WARM AIR EVIDENT IN THE THERMAL                       
PROFILES...SO -PL OR FZRA DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM. NOW...THERE IS             
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.             
SHOULD THE LOW TRACK FURTHER WEST...MEASURABLE SN WL BE POSS FURTHER            
TO THE W. STAY TUNED.                                                           
AVIATION...25/1800Z-26/1800Z...GOOD VFR CONDITIONS CONT THRU                    
25/1800Z. CLDS AND PERHAPS PCPN MAY AFFECT THE METRO TAF SITES NEAR             
18Z TMRW...BUT BEST CHCS ARE AFT 18Z.                                           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
CSTL LOPRES WL BE PULLING AWAY FM CWFA SUN NGT...ALL WHILE DEEPENING            
INTO AN IMPRSV STORM. WL DECREASE POPS IN THE E THRU THE EVNG. ANY              
ADDTL ACCUMS WL BE MINIMAL...DUE MOSTLY TO THE SPD OF SYSTEM AS IT              
CRRNTLY STANDS. WL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR ANY DEVIATIONS IN            
PATH/INTENSITY/SPEED.                                                           
NLY FLOW WL INCR...W/ NW FLOW AT H8 OVR THE GRTLKS RSLTG IN A LTL               
UPSLOPE SHSN IN THE NW MTNS. AREA WL BE UNDERGOING A DECENT AMT OF              
SHEAR...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WL BE QUITE SMALL AS HIPRES               
QUICKLY BUILDS. SO...A 20 POP WL RESIDE IN THE W AS WELL FOR SUN                
NGT. KEEPING QPF AND SNW AMT LOW /LESS THAN AN INCH/...ASSUMING                 
EVENT DOES EVEN HAPPEN.                                                         
BLDG HIPRES WL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR MON AND TUE. XPCT SKIES TO GO              
MOCLR DUE TO DVM AND LACK OF MSTR IN COLUMN. LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF AN             
INCRS IN UPR MSTR AS A JETMAX PASSES TO THE N.                                  
TEMPS WL GO COOLER THAN PRVS GRIDDED DUE TO CSTL STORM PULLING                  
ARCTIC AIR SWD. SO...MAXT/MIN-T WL RECEIVE A DWNWD NUDGE SUN                    
NGT/MON/MON NGT...AND THEN WL MODERATE FROM THERE.                              
XTNDD...HIPRES WL THE CNTRLLG FEATURE IN THE LWR LVLS...W/ A BLDG               
RDG UPSTAIRS.   ANY NRN STREAM IMPULSES WL BE FAR ENUF AWAY TO LV               
CWFA ALN. BY END OF PD /DAY 6-7/ PRESSING CDFNT WL GET HUNG UP IN               
UPR FLOW...AND WUD ANTICIPATE THAT ITS FWD PROGRESS WUD STALL. WL GO            
A PINCH SLOER THAN PRVS PKG. END RSLT WL STILL BE TO KEEP POPS AOB              
20 PCT...AND ANY PCPN WORDING WONT BE INCLD IN TXT PRODUCTS. GIVEN              
LONG SW FETCH...WUD XPCT DECENT WARM-UP DESPITE A FAIR AMT OF LOW TO            
MOSTLY MID LVL CLDS.  THUS...WL GO W/ HPC MAX/MIN PROGS.                        
MARINE...DEEPENING CSTL LOW WL CRANK UP THE WNDS...WL A FVRBL NLY               
FETCH DWN THE CHSPK BAY AND A STEEP AIR/WATER DIFF. WNDS WL REACH               
SCA RANGE SUN EVE AND CONT INTO MON AFTN. HIPRES BUILDS RATHER                  
RAPIDLY...WHICH SHUD SQUELCH CONTD WNDS.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MANNING                                                   
LONG TERM/MARINE...HTS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA             
DOWNSTREAM OF A ROCKIES RDG...AND AXIS OF H5/H85 TEMPS AS LO AS                 
-35C/-22C OVER THE AREA. SHRTWV AXIS OVER ONTARIO AND INTO LK SUP               
MOVING THRU THIS TROF HAS PUSHED E THIS EVNG...AND AREA OF COLDER               
CLD TOPS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FA WITH DRY AIR ALF SHOWN ON THE 00Z              
INL SDNG MOVING IN BEHIND. ARCTIC HI PRES OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WITH              
NE FLOW DOWN WRN LK SUP. HOWEVER...ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS. MSLP                 
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROF UNDER THE UPR TROFFING...NO DOUBT               
ACCENTUATED BY LATENT HEATING OFF THE LK WATERS...STRETCHING FM                 
CNTRL LK MI ACRS ECNTRL LK SUP. THE SHARP LLVL CNVGC BTWN AN ESE                
FLOW TO THE E AND A NW FLOW TO THE W HAS FOCUSED ALONG THESE AXES               
AND CAUSED INTENSE LES BANDS...WHICH HAVE BEEN STREAMING INTO CNTRL             
MQT COUNTY AND INTO FAR ERN DELTA AND WRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES SINCE            
LATE AFTN. REPORTS INDICATE SN RATES UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES/HR. SINCE              
BANDS APPEAR RELATIVELY STNRY...HAVE HOITED LES WRNGS IN THESE ZNS.             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE LES AMOUNTS/TRENDS/GOING HEADLINES.                 
00Z ETA SHOWS UPR TROFFING PERSISTING OVER THE AREA THRU THE NGT ABV            
GENERAL LVL TROFFINESS. FINER RES ETA MODEL RUNS SHOW AXES OF LLVL              
CNVGC PERSISTING ALL NGT IN CNTRL MQT COUNTY AND OVER ERN DELTA/WRN             
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...SO NO DOUBT LES WL CONT TO IMPACT THESE                  
AREAS. WL LEAVE GOING WRNGS AS IS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER              
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WHERE PUSH OF COLDER AIR ON THE HEELS OF NE            
FLOW ON THE SRN FLANK OF ARCTIC HI PRES IN NW ONTARIO. A BURST OF SN            
ACCOMPANYING THIS SFC TROF HAS CAUSED A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION OVER            
THE KEWEENAW. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS LES TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED            
AS ETA/RUC SHOW A MORE DIFFLUENT NE FLOW/WEAKENING LLVL CNVGC DVLPG.            
WL NOT ISSUE HEADLINE TO COVER THIS EVENT.                                      
ALSO UPDATED TO LOWER MIN TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WCNTRL TO REFLECT             
CLRG.                                                                           
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT OVER SOUTHERN JAMES BAY INTO SOUTHWEST                
QUEBEC. SHORTWAVES SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SAIL              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN             
ONTARIO WILL TREK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE RIDGE            
WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALSO            
SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING LAKE-850MB DELTA-T'S OVER              
20C. LOWEST INVERSION WILL LOWER FROM 6000 FEET IN THE MORNING TO               
4500 FEET BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL SOUNDING DATA INDICATES THAT             
SURFACE TO 900MB RH WILL BE 80 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.              
TOGETHER THESE SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS                      
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE                    
HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CENTRAL U.P. THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY CLIP THE                 
PARTS OF THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. ETA12 SHOWING A MESO LOW              
DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR JUST NORTHEAST OF MARQUETTE...WHICH                  
SHOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON WINDS AND ON THE SNOWFALL TOTALS. THIS IS              
REASONABLE WITH THE WEAK FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE WARM LAKE                 
TEMPERATURES. I PLAN TO BEEF UP SOME OF THE SNOWFALL TOTALS A                   
LITTLE...HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK WILL NEED AN ADVISORY AS LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WILL BE WEAK.                                         
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY            
NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OFF THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA               
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHWEST. THUS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL            
LOWER THE DELTA-T'S BY 5C. THE INVERSION WILL COME DOWN TO 3K FEET.             
THIS IS STILL ENOUGH TO HAVE LAKE EFFECTS SNOW. HOWEVER WITH THE                
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL GENERATE LAKE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. ETA12 SHOWING LIGHT WINDS OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND             
MOSTLY LOW LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ETA/GFS SHOWING LIMITED LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE                
STEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW...BUT WITH THE FLOW AND LACK OF               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY LES OVER THE NORTH               
SHORE OF CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS                
WELL.                                                                           
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THE             
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA STRETCHING FROM WEST CENTRAL                
QUEBEC ACROSS THE U.P. THEN INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WINDS              
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND               
VEERING WEST FOLLOWING THE FRONT WHILE WEAKENING. 850MB TEMPERATURES            
WILL BE AROUND -10C OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN             
INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WILL ADD TO THE SNOW             
TOTALS. ETA/GFS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER                   
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO.               
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON                    
TUESDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE WEST END OF THE FRONT BEGINS TO               
SWING EAST AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. ETA/GFS                   
SHOWING A WARMING TREND WITH WATER-850MB DELTA-T'S DIMINISHING TO               
10C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LOWERING THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE                
THROUGH THE DAY. ETA12 INDICATE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE                    
NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LES              
OVER WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING. ETA SHOWING THE AIR MASS AS FAIRLY            
DRY...WHEREAS THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE                
AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SOME SNOW. WILL CALL FOR LIGHT SNOW OR                    
FLURRIES EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHLANDS OF WESTERN U.P. WHICH WILL HAVE               
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF LES.                                                    
THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR                  
VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY. A NEAR ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS                    
NORTHERN CONUS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC              
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN                 
CALIFORNIA. THE WEAK ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS U.P. AND A              
RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP STABILIZE THE AIR               
MASS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL                 
RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A SHORTWAVE WILL             
RACE OUT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST            
AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH             
OFF TO THE EAST COAST AS IT RACES ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS INTO                    
MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN                
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER LOW LEVEL WARM             
MOIST AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH                
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MID 30S...WARM ENOUGH FOR MIX                  
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RACE THROUGH THE AREA ON                  
FRIDAY AS THE MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT                 
RELOCATES OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. ON SATURDAY...GFS SHIFTS A WEAK               
SHORTWAVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF               
THE FORECAST AREA AND DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL              
LOWER MICHIGAN. AS PER GFS...IT LOWS AS IF THE NORTHERN U.P. WILL               
MOST LIKELY RECEIVE A CHANCE OF SNOW.                                           
DLG                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WRNG UNTIL 5 AM EST SUN MIZ013-014.                            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WNRG UNTIL 11 AM EST SUN MIZ005.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1110 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS CURRENT HEADLINES AND LES            
POTENTIAL ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.                        
LATEST 88D IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF               
THE CWFA AT THIS TIME. THIS SNOW IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT LOBE             
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH AND SOME MID-LEVEL WARM              
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER            
IOWA. THE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS FROM THE 12Z ETA                 
APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE                      
FORCING...AND MOVE IT OUT OF THE WESTERN CWFA BY 18Z AND OUT OF THE             
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY AROUND 21Z. THE FORCING IS NOT PARTICULARLY            
STRONG...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED PER ETA PROGS               
AND 12Z KGRB AND KAPX SOUNDINGS...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS                
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE MINIMAL.                                       
THE BIGGER QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WITH REGARD TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW            
SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. 88D IMAGERY FROM KGRB SHOWS A                       
WELL-DEFINED MID-LAKE LES BAND ON LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH SURFACE OBS              
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE LAKE CLEARLY SHOWING CONVERGENCE INTO THE BAND.            
THE BAND IS ORIENTED SOUTH-NORTH TO THE END OF THE DOOR                         
PENINSULA...THEN BENDS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A PORTION                    
BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE IN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. IT IS VERY                     
DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW THIS BAND WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TODAY            
AND TONIGHT. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST THE BAND SHOULD                
HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE PUSHED FARTHER NORTH AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST               
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LARGE SCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE            
SURFACE LOW MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH HELPS IMPACT THE MESOSCALE FLOW              
OVER THE LAKE. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THINGS BECOME            
MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS/PREDICT. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SURFACE              
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH             
THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE NORTH...SHOULD HELP ASSIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER            
THE REGION. HOWEVER...LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN MAY             
WORK TO LIMIT HOW FAR WESTWARD THE BAND CAN BE PUSHED. AN ASSESSMENT            
OF CURRENT TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO                 
AFFECT EASTERN DELTA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD WORK INTO               
SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. OUTPUT FROM THE LOCAL 3.75KM                       
WORKSTATION ETA OFFERS WHAT COULD BE A VERY PRECISE YET INACCURATE              
FORECAST. THE 00Z RUN OF THE WORKSTATION ETA HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON             
THE CURRENT ACTIVITY THAN ANY OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING              
THE NEW 12Z WORKSTATION ETA. HOWEVER...THAT RUN SEEMED TO                       
UNREALISTICALLY SHIFT THE BAND TO FAR EASTWARD LATER THIS                       
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING IT TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SCHOOLCRAFT               
COUNTY NORTH INTO LUCE COUNTY. THE 12Z WSETA RUN MAINTAINS MORE                 
EASTERLY FLOW WHICH HELPS TO KEEP THINGS FROM AFFECTING LUCE COUNTY             
OTHER THAN FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LES BANDS IN FAIRLY            
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS SUCH AS THIS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO                         
PREDICT...AND UNFORTUNATELY THE STRONG CONVERGENCE WHICH CAN BE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM CAN LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE ALBEIT LOCALIZED                    
SNOWFALL RATES.                                                                 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE            
MODEL OUTPUT...INCLUDING WSETA...ETA12...AND RUC13...AM INCLINED TO             
NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z WSETA                
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE BANDING                       
BEST...PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS. ADJUSTMENTS THAT MAY BE                
NEEDED LATER INCLUDE THE POSSIBLE REMOVAL OF LUCE COUNTY FROM THE               
ADVISORY AND THE EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE ADVISORY OVER DELTA AND               
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY...SINCE MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS             
IT WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING.                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MIZ007-014-085.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
330 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.SYNOPTIC...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL SHIFT             
EAST AND END THE CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH. A                 
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES                  
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN              
IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST SITES IN OUR CWA ARE               
REPORTING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR SOME               
NORTHERN LOCATIONS...FIRST TIME ABOVE FREEZING IN THE LAST TWO DAYS.            
ALL WINTRY PCPN HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS                 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH THIS EVENING. WL INCLUDE MENTION OF                    
SPRINKLES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES THIS EVENING THOUGH.                   
IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS HAS A DEEPENING                   
SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF PENSACOLA                  
MOVING EAST. THIS LOW IS BEING TRAILED BY AN UPPER LOW WHOSE                    
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY               
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS FROM THESE LOWS MAY               
BRIEFLY BRING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO THE HATTIESBURG AREA THIS EVENING            
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF             
THE CLOUD SHIELD IS NEAR A GREENVILLE MS TO MONROE LA LINE. THE EDGE            
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER NIGHT AND PLENTY OF             
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND              
OUR COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW             
FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP                
INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE THE TEENS SO A HARD FREEZE              
WARNING WILL NOT BE ISSUED TONIGHT. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL              
BUILD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY                 
WARMER TEMPERATURES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BY WEDNESDAY WL HAVE ZONAL            
FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF                   
STATES. ONLY WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS A                  
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WL                  
REMOVE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY AND KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THE END              
OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY THROUGH            
SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. DEEP                
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND PARISHES               
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFSLR AND ECMWF                
BOTH STALL THIS COLD FRONT OVER THE OZARKS SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY             
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE              
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST             
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI                  
RIVER.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       25  50  30  55 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      24  50  27  55 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
350 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WK SFC LO NR KOMA THIS AFTN WL CONT RIDING ALG ARCTIC FNT AND DROP              
E-SE TNGT.  WAA AHD OF THIS FTR...ALG WITH A BIT OF SHTWV                       
ENERGY...HAS BEEN KICKING OFF AN AREA OF LGT SNW OVR CNTR/E IA THIS             
AFTN.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AS WELL AS MDL                   
OUTPUT...SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS PCPN WL RMN JUST OUT OF OUR             
CWA.  WL MENTION A FEW FLRYS OVR OUR FAR NE COUNTIES DURG THE EVE               
HRS...BUT WL CONT DRY FCST ELSW.                                                
OTRW...MAIN FCST PROB FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS TEMP TRENDS.             
FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT APRS TO BE UNDERWAY IN THE UA PTRN...AS LGWV TROF             
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVR CNTRL U.S. GIVES WAY TO RDGG AND QZNL                  
FLOW.   ALL SHORT RANGE MDL OUTPUT APRS TO BE IN VRY GD AGREEMENT               
WITH THE ABV MENTIONED TREND...AND RESULTANT TEMP PROFILE OVR                   
REGION.                                                                         
A BIT UNSURE ON HOW TO HNDL ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT SHUD SAG ACR AREA ON            
SUN IN WAKE OF TNGTS LOW.  AMS JUST N OF FNT IS QUITE CHILLY...WHILE            
PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE EFFECT HAS REALLY WARMED AMD FROM CNTRL PLAINS             
INTO SW MO AHD OF FNT.  18Z RUNS...AND LATEST RUC...APR TO BE                   
HEADING TWD A BIT MORE OF A N TRACK OF THE SFC LO TNGT...WHICH SHUD             
TRANSLATE TO A BIT LESS SWD PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AMS BY SUN MRNG.  MAY            
END UP WITH A FAIRLY BIG TEMP GRADIENT ACR AREA BY SUN AFTN...AND TO            
EMPHASIZE THIS HV LEANED ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUID IN N AREAS...AND              
TWD THE WRMR MET NUMBERS IN THE SNW FREE AREAS OF S PARTS OF OUR                
CWA.                                                                            
A BIG WRMUP SHUD BEGIN IN EARNEST BY MON...WITH THIS WRMG TREND                 
CONTG THRUOUT RMNDR OF WEEK.  SHT RANGE MOS GUID IN VRY GD AGREEMENT            
AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER...OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR RESIDUAL                 
SNWCVR OVR SE AREAS THRU MON.  BLV THAT BY TUE SNWCVR WL BE A                   
NON-ISSUE FOR OUR AREA AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED. THANKS TO PAH             
FOR COORD ON THIS.                                                              
HEADING INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...TEMPS SHUD RMN WELL ABV NORMAL AS               
QZNL FLO KPS COLD AIR LOCKED TO OUR N.  ATTM HV OPTED TO GO NR                  
ENSEMBLE MOS MEANS FOR NOW...JUST A BIT BLO OPERATIONAL GUID...AS RH            
PROGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF CLDNS IN THE LTR PDS...ALG WITH A CHC              
OF RAIN.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRUETT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
924 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
LATEST RUC MODEL OUTPUT/IR SATELLITE PICTURE USED FOR THE UPDATE. A             
WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO...THIS IS CAUSING            
SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER WRN AND CNTRL NY. CURRENT FCST             
TRENDS TO MSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WRN ADIRONDACKS/CNTRL                
MOHAWK VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS              
WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN HLF OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...PARTLY CLOUDY             
WILL BE FINE. TEMPS ARE FINE BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 5-6 HOURLY                   
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATE NECESSARY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE BETWEEN 02Z AND 17Z. SOME MVFR                     
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP THE MID AND UPPER                  
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY BTWN 20Z AND 00Z WITH -SN ON NW SIDE OF STRONG              
SFC OCEANIC CYCLONE/AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004               
.SYNOPSIS...MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO ALBANY. WHAT A DIFFERENCE 2                
YEARS MAKE...ANYONE RECALL WHITE CHRISTMAS 2002 IN THESE PARTS!. NO             
BIG STORMS THIS YEAR FOR US. FOR MOST PART FAST MOVING WEAK SYSTEMS             
WILL DOMINATE WX IN FCA THRU THE PD. AS ONLY SIGNIFICANT STORM HEADS            
OUT WELL SOUTH OF AREA BECOMING MAINLY A "FISH" STORM. &&                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...POLAR SFC HI BUILDS ACRS                 
QUEBEC...DRAINING COLD AIR SOUTH WHILE SFC LOW PUSHES INTO W GRTLKS.            
BOUNDARY IS FRNTL ZONE FM LK HURON ACRS S TIER OF NYS. MNLY                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PATCHES OF MID AND HI CLDS. SOME LK RESPONSE                
ALONG TROF AN WITH STRONGER UVM BUT THIS IS WELL WEST OF FCA.                   
PATCHES OF CLDS TNGT..BUT STILL OVERALL PC. THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT               
WONT PUSH S OF ST LAWRENCE VLY. SUNDAY THE BROAD 500 HPA TROF OVER E            
US/CANADA BEGINS TO SHARPEN IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL JETS DIGGING INTO            
IT. MEANWHILE COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CAROLINAS DEVELOPS A            
BOTTOM UP (DIABTICLY FORCED) SFC LOW ALONG THE CST BY LATE SUN. THE             
DEEPENING 500 HPA TROF WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF SOME LIGHT             
SNOW...WHILE THE CENTER OF CSTL SYSTEM STAYS 400-500 MILES SE OF NE             
US COAST. SOME MOISTURE MIGHT GET DRAWN BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND AND E             
FCA FM OFFSHORE...BUT THE MAIN EVENT IN FCA SUN NT AND ERLY MON MRNG            
WILL BE DRIVEN BY TROF DYNAMICS...NOT THE BOMBING CSTL LOW. MONDAY              
THE CSTL LOW WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE...BUT KEEP A STRONG WIND GRADIENT            
OVER FCA...AND DRIVE STRONG CAA INTO RGN. OTHER THAN COLD AND WIND              
MONDAY SHOULD BE A FAIR MS DAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS FM GRTLKS SE TO NE            
USA. MONDAY NIGHT THIS HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE WITH SOME OVERRUNNING               
CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF IT INTO FCA MON NT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...TUESDAY FCA ENTERS W FLOW OF              
WAA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING ABV NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE                    
WEEK...INCREASING CLDS AND CHC SNSH RESULT TUE. THE QUIET PERIOD                
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE UNRAVELING WITH WEAK SYSTEMS...CLOUDS AND                
PCPN. TUES AND TUE NT WAA FOLLOWED BY APPROACH OF CDFNT BRINGS CLDS             
AND CHC PCPN N TO FCA. DGEX HAS THIS SYSTEM FAR STRONGER THAN                   
AVN...BUT GENERAL CLDS AND PCPN ARE THERE. WED AND WED NT THIS                  
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST WITH HI PRES BUILDING ALONG E SEABOARD BUT             
BNDRY BETWEEN COLDER HI OVER MAINE AND WARMER ONE OVER SE US CST                
ACRS FCA...AND POSSIBLY FOCUSING SOME LAKE RESPONSE. AGAIN                      
NONDESCRIPT VRBL CLDS...CHC OF -SHSN N AND W. THU AND THU NT GEN                
FAIR AS SFC HI IS ALONG E SEABOARD AND MJR SFC LOW IS IN UPR GRTLKS.            
FRI STRONG WAA COVERS MUCH OF E WITH CLDS AND SHRA LKLY....BUT RGN              
RMNS IN WM SECTOR INTO NEXT WEEKEND..WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE A BACK DOOR             
CDFNT DROPS S ACRS THE RGN NEW YEARS EVE.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR THRU 18Z SUN.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.                   
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...SNYDER                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                    
AVIATION (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
952 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR             
SOUTHERN ZONES. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE                   
MID-LEVEL CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE...WITH A MODERATELY STRONG OMEGA                  
BULLS-EYE SUPERIMPOSED ON A TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAT IS WELL WITHIN             
THE PREFERRED DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. THE HORSE FLY IN             
THE OINTMENT IS THE VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THAT EXTENDS TO AROUND              
750 MB. SNOW FALLING THROUGH THIS VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL               
SUBLIMATE RATHER EASILY AT FIRST...BUT WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO              
PROVIDE SOME MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW             
FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO EVEN MODERATE SNOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS            
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.                           
THE 18Z GFS WAS MUCH TOO FAR EAST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE GULFMEX             
SURFACE LOW AT 00Z. THE 18Z RUN OF THE ETA AND 21Z RUC HAD A MUCH               
BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW POSITION. THE NEW 00Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS              
ARE COMING IN WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE (MAYBE A SLIGHT WESTWARD                  
SHIFT) REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE OFF THE                
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...THE QPF              
PROGS FROM THE RUC AND THE ETA APPEAR TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON            
CURRENT PRECIP ACTIVITY PER RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS. IN FACT...            
THE 2 MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH BOTH PLACEMENT AND                 
AMOUNT OF QPF THROUGH 12Z. THIS HAPPENS TO BE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH            
THE CURRENT PACKAGE...MINUS A FEW MINOR DETAILS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE            
SUGGESTS ELBERT AND ABBEVILLE COUNTIES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH                    
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHILE UNION, NC COULD MEET WARNING CRITERIA.                
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THAT STILL LINGERS              
WITH THIS FORECAST...A CONTINUATION OF THE ADVISORY IN ITS CURRENT              
STATE APPEARS TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET. WILL CONTINUE WITH 1              
TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED FROM              
SOUTHERN GREENWOOD TO SOUTHEAST CHESTER...TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF              
UNION NC.                                                                       
OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO MIN TEMPS...INCLUDING                      
INCREASING THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NC MNTNS...AND LOWERING THEM A BIT             
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE WET BULB AFFECT RESULTING FROM                 
SUBLIMATING SNOW SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S            
BY SUNRISE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 237 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
INTERESTING 24 HOURS SETTING UP FOR SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST               
AREA...AS CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PROVIDE A            
GLANCING BLOW OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST             
PORTION LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS INCIPIENT LOW MOVES                   
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WE RECENTLY UPDATED THE FORECAST             
TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR FRINGE BORDER COUNTIES               
FROM ELBERT GEORGIA TO UNION NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR NOW WE                    
WILL HOLD AT THAT...AND NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR ANY OF THE                 
ADVISORY AREA. 12Z MODEL RUNS AND LATEST NCEP GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...             
SUGGEST IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. AND THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS ONE                  
WHICH FAVORS A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST                    
EDGE...WHICH LINES UP WITH OUR BORDERS WITH THE ATLANTA...COLUMBIA              
AND RALEIGH FORECAST OFFICES.                                                   
MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...AND CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS...INDICATE              
LOW LEVELS VERY DRY INITIALLY. WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO BEGIN                 
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS SURFACE WAVE MAKES               
ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. MODELS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH STRENGTH OF                
SURFACE WAVE...SUGGESTING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A MORE NORTHERLY                
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WAVE AND ATTENDANT UPPER                 
TROF EXPECTED TO SWING BY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...WHEN UPPER                     
DIVERGENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE AND WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED. BIG                   
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FALL...GIVEN            
THE QUANTITY OF DRY AIR THAT MUST BE OVERCOME AND BREVITY OF                    
PRECIPITAITON TIMING WINDOW. AT THIS JUNCTURE...APPEARS                         
PRECIPITATION TIME WILL BE 06Z TO 12Z ELBERT/ABBEVILLE...09Z TO 15Z             
CHESTER TO UNION NORTH CAROLINA...AND GREENWOOD/SOUTHEAST                       
LAURENS/SOUTHEAST UNION SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LONGEST                         
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.                                                        
THERMAL PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MOSTLY                
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT...BUT ETA AND ITS HIGHER RESOLUTION SISTERS                
INSISTENT ON WARM NOSE THAT COULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF                          
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE WARM NOSE IS                         
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN...BUT WILL MENTION            
SNOW/SLEET...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. CHANCES OF RAIN              
WILL BE PUT AT 60% FOR THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...WITH TIGHT POP                   
INTER-COUNTY GRADIENTS; THIS COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE JUST A FEW              
MILES MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OCCURS. TO               
THE NORTH...CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/SLEET FOR THE REST OF THE                   
UPSTATE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...NORTH TO THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...BUT            
DRIER AIR MORE ENTRENCHED IN THESE LOCATIONS AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY              
BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR THE WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE TO INVADE THE DRIER            
LOW LEVELS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. SLIGHT CHANCES TO NO CHANCES OF               
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85.                   
WE WILL PLAN TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR SMALL                    
SLIVERS OF GREENWOOD...LAURENS...AND CHESTER COUNTIES IN SOUTH                  
CAROLINA...AND FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNION NORTH CAROLINA; MOST OF              
THE ADVISORY AREA WILL GET AN INCH OR TWO MENTIONED. ACCUMULATIONS              
PROJECTED TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY FROM THERE...TO NO MORE THAN A DUSTING            
FOR THE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG METRO AREA. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT              
SNOWFALL WILL BE TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.                              
WITH THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS TONITE...            
WE WILL INDICATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH SOUTH AND                
EAST. TEMPERATURES TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 SOUTH.                      
PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD ERODE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH SUNDAY                
MORNING...AND DEPENDENT ON THE VERIFICATION OF ANY WARM NOSE...WE               
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE EVENT ENDS FOR                 
GOOD SOUTH AND EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR A FEW OF THE ADVISORY               
COUNTIES SUGGEST THE EVENT COULD END AS RAIN. SURFACE WAVE                      
PROJECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OUT TO SEA...CUTTING OFF                           
MOISTURE FROM OUR REGION. DECREASING CLOUDS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE             
AFTERNOON. WE TONED DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...40 TO 45 MOST           
AREAS.                                                                          
WITH NADIR OF TROF AXIS SWINGING EAST SUNDAY EVENING...HEIGHTS ALOFT            
EXPECTED TO BEGIN RISING AS UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ONE                    
TYPIFIED BY RIDGING FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. WE MAINTAINED THE                    
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                               
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE               
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A NRN STREAM WAVE MAY CLIP THE NRN TIER              
WED INTO THU...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE PROFILES.                  
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE FINALLY INCREASES MOISTURE SOMEWHAT                
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY SAT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS                    
WARRANTED. TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL              
BY LATE WEEK.                                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO REGION FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH            
THE PERIOD...BUT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SENSIBLE WEATHER AT              
TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT                    
FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A             
LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THE 06Z TO 15Z TIME             
PERIOD. WILL THUS FEATURE ONLY OCNL BROKEN AC DECK LATE                         
TONIGHT...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW COMPONENT THROUGH THE OUTLOOK               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE GAZ029 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LATE            
     MORNING.                                                                   
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE NCZ082 TONIGHT AND SUNDAY LATE            
     MORNING.                                                                   
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES SCZ009-011>014-019 TONIGHT AND           
     SUNDAY LATE MORNING.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...LANE                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
920 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...TEMPS ACROSS COASTAL SC AND GA GETTING TOO              
CLOSE FOR COMFORT WHEN LOOKING AT THE ICE POSSIBILITIES.  RAIN HAS              
BROUGHT SURFACE TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAS SATURATED THE LOWEST                   
LEVELS.  WHILE MOST OF THE AREA IS HOVERING IN THE MID 30S...WITH               
LOW FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY PULL DOWN COOLER AIR TO THE             
N AND NW...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER                    
ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE SC ZONES...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE                
INLAND GA ZONES.  PRIMARY THREAT FOR ICE CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY WEST            
OF HIGHWAY 17 IN SC AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 DOWN IN GA.  WILL BE              
ISSUING THE EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY.  MAY TWEAK                
WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT ESPECIALLY DOWN IN GA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART             
THEY LOOK FINE. AM NOT LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD ICE DOWN IN GA...BUT              
FOR THOSE AREAS THAT ARE TYPICAL LOW AND COLD SPOTS...ICE COULD                 
DEFINITELY FORM OVERNIGHT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GRADIENT IS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER WATERS IN RESPONSE              
TO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA.  WILL EXPAND THE GALE WARNING TO              
INCLUDE THE NEARSHORE GA WATERS.  LATEST RUC IS DOING A PRETTY GOOD             
JOB OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND IS FORECASTING 40 KT OVER THE GA                 
WATERS BEFORE DAWN.  WILL ADJUST REST OF THE FORECAST TO LATEST OBS             
AND TRENDS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...HAVE KEPT CIGS WELL ABOVE 3KFT AT CHS AND SAV AS EVENING            
SOUNDING SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS.  RAIN WILL SLOWLY            
MOISTEN THE LAYER AND CIGS SHOULD START TO LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT.                
HAVE SHOWN A STEADY INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.  MAY HAVE              
TO ADD IN SOME FROZEN PRECIP LATER ON IF TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP AS              
SHOWN.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GAZ087>088-099>101-114>116-118-137>138-            
     140 UNTIL NOON SUNDAY.                                                     
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045-047>051 UNTIL NOON                  
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
     LAKE WIND ADVISORY SCZ045.                                                 
MARINE...GALE WARNING AMZ350-352-354-374.                                       
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ330.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTE/JPC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1000 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...DENSE MID LEVEL OVERCAST                      
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COVERS                
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA MOVING MAINLY TO THE EAST.               
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA               
MAKING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS...BUT THAT NOT LIKELY TO                
IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. BOTTOM LINE FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL DRY            
AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR ANY                       
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE               
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE ELSEWHERE...SO            
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN MOST AREAS AND CHANCE IN            
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. THINK THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST PLAIN                  
CLOUDY SO WILL WORD ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD                        
COVER...WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND                        
TRENDS...WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST            
AREAS.                                                                          
FOR TONIGHT...HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES AS OF YET...BUT AT A MINIMUM            
FEEL THAT POPS AND LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE                  
RAISED. MORE ON LATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MODEST PRES GRAD CURRENTLY OVR THE WATERS WILL ONLY BECOME            
TIGHTER THRU THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRES CNTR GETS                
STIRRED UP IN THE GULF AND MOVES NE ALONG A STALLED FNTL BNDRY. WILL            
KEEP HEADLINES AS IS IN GOING CWF...BUT AM CONCERNED WITH 41004                 
ALREADY TOYING WITH THE 7FT MARK. MAY WELL HAVE 6 FT JUST BEYOND                
20NM BOUNDARY OF AMZ350 FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAX                 
WAVES WITHIN 20NM AT 5 FT AND MAINTAIN LOWER WAVES CLOSER TO SHORE.             
WINDS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK WITH BUOYS AND SHORELINE OBS COMING IN                
WITH SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WINDS. RUC/M-ETA DO NOT SHOW AN APPRECIATIVE            
INCRS IN WIND SPEEDS UNTIL AFT 00Z SO SHOULD BE ABLE TO LEAVE RANGES            
AS IS. WILL MAKE COSMETIC WORDING CHANGES BUT ALL WX ELEMENTS GOOD.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CURRENT TAFS LOOK TO HAVE SKY CONDS HANDLED WELL WITH               
OVC CIGS ABV 12K FT. AS THE LOW IN THE GULF APCHS...CIGS SHOULD FALL            
TO WHERE ASOS WILL DETECT THEM. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THRU THE             
AFTN AND EVE HRS...ESP IS SCT -RA MOVE NR/OVR THE TERMINALS. WINDS              
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCRS AT BOTH AIRPORTS AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY               
BECOME PREVAILING...BOTH ELEMENTS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT TAFS.                 
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GAZ087-088 FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY            
MORNING.                                                                        
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045 FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO               
SUNDAY MORNING.                                                                 
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MTE/JPC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
942 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A VERY QUIET AND CHILLY CHRISTMAS MORNING ACROSS THE              
REGION.  ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN AT ALL IS HOW MUCH HIGH CLOUDINESS            
AFFECTS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA.               
LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ABOUND...WITH LATEST RUC AND            
MESO-ETA MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IF ANY OF THE HIGH CLOUDS                   
PASSING OVER MY AREA TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS GULF COAST LOW             
PRESSURE MOVES ENE TODAY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY AT LEAST BRUSH THESE             
AREAS.                                                                          
12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TODAY...IN            
SPITE OF FULL SUNSHINE.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH CURRENT TEMPS               
ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.                                                 
WILL DO A COSMETIC UPDATE AND REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING...OTHERWISE            
THE ZFP...GRIDS AND WEB PRODUCTS NEED LITTLE IF ANY UPDATING FOR                
REST OF TODAY.                                                                  
HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL!                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
8 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                        
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS ALL            
THAT IS LEFT IS A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                       
HAVE ISSUED A PNS WITH A SNOWFALL SUMMARY SO FAR THIS MORNING.                  
THIS CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER                                          
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION > ADDITIONAL INFO/LINKS > PUBLIC INFORMATION             
STATEMENT.                                                                      
FORGOT TO MENTION THAT WE HAVE ISSUED CEMS FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON              
AND WHARTON COUNTIES FOR TRAVEL ADVISORIES DUE TO SLICK/ICY ROADS               
IN HOUSTON AND SNOW COVERED AND IMPASSABLE ROADS IN WHARTON                     
COUNTY.                                                                         
45.                                                                             
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE BIG CHRISTMAS EVE STORM IS WINDING DOWN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.                
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE WAKING                 
UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IN BAY CITY                
AND 4 INCHES IN WHARTON...TAPERING OFF TO 2 INCHES IN LEAGUE CITY AND           
2 TO 3 INCHES AT JAMAICA BEACH. WOW! THE AREA HASN'T SEEN THIS KIND             
OF SNOWFALL SINCE AT LEAST 1989.                                                
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTAL BEND IS                 
MOVING STEADILY EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND SHOULD BE PUSHING            
INTO THE GULF. TEMPERATURES AT 5 AM AT COLLEGE STATION 29...CONROE              
32...IAH 35...WHARTON 30...PALACIOS 29...ANGLETON 30...AND GALVESTON            
36. CLOUDS OVER THE AREA HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER                 
THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN VERY GOOD NEWS THOUGH               
THE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CLEARING OUT FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST.            
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 30 BUT                
IN MANY OF THE SOUTHERN SITES THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING UP THE          
LAST FEW HOURS...MORE GOOD NEWS.                                                
WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING UNTIL 8 AM FOR THE                 
COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE CANCELLED IT ELSEWHERE.                               
SATELLITE...METARS AND RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF           
AND COMING TO AN END. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY            
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE                
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS CLEARING SKIES               
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A SLOW WARMUP AS RIDGE AXIS             
LINGERS ALONG THE COAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VIGOROUS                 
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND A VERY DEEP TROUGH TAKING               
SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD GET STORMY FRIDAY OR                       
SATURDAY.                                                                       
45                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXPECT TIGHT GRADIENTS TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID DAY                 
TODAY... SO WILL LEAVE SCA FLAGS UP 0-60 NM.  FOR THE BAYS... WINDS             
STILL AT CAUTION LEVELS... AND THOUGH THEY MAY DROP MORE RAPIDLY                
THAN THE GULF WATERS... WILL STILL KEEP SCEC IN EFFECT FOR FIRST                
PERIOD FORECAST.  HARD TO DELINEATE EXACTLY WHERE SNOW STOPS AND                
RAIN TAKES OVER IN THE COASTAL WATERS... BUT TRANSITION ALMOST                  
CERTAINLY COMPLETE BYD 20 NM WHERE ECHO GRADIENTS JUMP INTO THE 40-50           
DBZ RANGE. AT ISSUE HERE IS THAT AREAS WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE MAY                
HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF VSBY DOWN TO 1NM IN LIGHT SNOW.  AS UPPER                 
TROUGH CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE              
OUT OF THE REGION AND WINDS RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 18-00Z.                 
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE RESTRICTED THIS MORNING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW               
CONTINUES.  THE PRECIP IS BEING SHUT OFF ON THE NORTH SIDE BY MID               
LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH ARCS FROM EAGLE LAKE TO ANAHUAC AT 08Z AND IS            
BEST DEPICTED IN 700 MB RUC.  HOBBY WILL REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF THIS             
FEATURE... BUT  EXPECTED TO HOVER AT MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS            
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z.  NORTH OF KHOU - WHERE SNOW WILL            
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE - EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINS WITH BASES               
6-10KFT AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS LIFTED OUT THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH THE MOTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS                
SYSTEM.                                                                         
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SCEC BAYS.                                                                      
SCA 00-60 NM WATERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)   45 27 57 36 61 / 00 00 00 00 00                         
HOUSTON (IAH)           44 28 56 36 62 / 00 00 00 00 00                         
GALVESTON (GLS)         40 37 53 48 60 / 05 00 00 00 00                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
744 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE...                                                                       
WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS ALL            
THAT IS LEFT IS A FEW FLURRIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.                       
HAVE ISSUED A PNS WITH A SNOWFALL SUMMARY SO FAR THIS MORNING.                  
THIS CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER                                          
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION > ADDITIONAL INFO/LINKS > PUBLIC INFORMATION             
STATEMENT.                                                                      
45.                                                                             
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE BIG CHRISTMAS EVE STORM IS WINDING DOWN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.                
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE WAKING                 
UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IN BAY CITY                
AND 4 INCHES IN WHARTON...TAPERING OFF TO 2 INCHES IN LEAGUE CITY AND           
2 TO 3 INCHES AT JAMAICA BEACH. WOW! THE AREA HASN'T SEEN THIS KIND             
OF SNOWFALL SINCE AT LEAST 1989.                                                
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTAL BEND IS                 
MOVING STEADILY EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND SHOULD BE PUSHING            
INTO THE GULF. TEMPERATURES AT 5 AM AT COLLEGE STATION 29...CONROE              
32...IAH 35...WHARTON 30...PALACIOS 29...ANGLETON 30...AND GALVESTON            
36. CLOUDS OVER THE AREA HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER                 
THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN VERY GOOD NEWS THOUGH               
THE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CLEARING OUT FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST.            
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 30 BUT                
IN MANY OF THE SOUTHERN SITES THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING UP THE          
LAST FEW HOURS...MORE GOOD NEWS.                                                
WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING UNTIL 8 AM FOR THE                 
COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE CANCELLED IT ELSEWHERE.                               
SATELLITE...METARS AND RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF           
AND COMING TO AN END. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY            
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE                
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS CLEARING SKIES               
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A SLOW WARMUP AS RIDGE AXIS             
LINGERS ALONG THE COAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VIGOROUS                 
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND A VERY DEEP TROUGH TAKING               
SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD GET STORMY FRIDAY OR                       
SATURDAY.                                                                       
45                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXPECT TIGHT GRADIENTS TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID DAY                 
TODAY... SO WILL LEAVE SCA FLAGS UP 0-60 NM.  FOR THE BAYS... WINDS             
STILL AT CAUTION LEVELS... AND THOUGH THEY MAY DROP MORE RAPIDLY                
THAN THE GULF WATERS... WILL STILL KEEP SCEC IN EFFECT FOR FIRST                
PERIOD FORECAST.  HARD TO DELINEATE EXACTLY WHERE SNOW STOPS AND                
RAIN TAKES OVER IN THE COASTAL WATERS... BUT TRANSITION ALMOST                  
CERTAINLY COMPLETE BYD 20 NM WHERE ECHO GRADIENTS JUMP INTO THE 40-50           
DBZ RANGE. AT ISSUE HERE IS THAT AREAS WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE MAY                
HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF VSBY DOWN TO 1NM IN LIGHT SNOW.  AS UPPER                 
TROUGH CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE              
OUT OF THE REGION AND WINDS RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 18-00Z.                 
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE RESTRICTED THIS MORNING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW               
CONTINUES.  THE PRECIP IS BEING SHUT OFF ON THE NORTH SIDE BY MID               
LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH ARCS FROM EAGLE LAKE TO ANAHUAC AT 08Z AND IS            
BEST DEPICTED IN 700 MB RUC.  HOBBY WILL REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF THIS             
FEATURE... BUT  EXPECTED TO HOVER AT MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS            
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z.  NORTH OF KHOU - WHERE SNOW WILL            
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE - EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINS WITH BASES               
6-10KFT AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS LIFTED OUT THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH THE MOTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS                
SYSTEM.                                                                         
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SE TX UNTIL 14Z.                 
SCEC BAYS.                                                                      
SCA 00-60 NM WATERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)   45 27 57 36 61 / 00 00 00 00 00                         
HOUSTON (IAH)           44 28 56 36 62 / 20 00 00 00 00                         
GALVESTON (GLS)         41 37 53 48 60 / 50 00 00 00 00                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
537 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004                                                      
THE BIG CHRISTMAS EVE STORM IS WINDING DOWN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.                
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE WAKING                 
UP TO A WHITE CHRISTMAS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES IN BAY CITY                
AND 4 INCHES IN WHARTON...TAPERING OFF TO 2 INCHES IN LEAGUE CITY AND           
2 TO 3 INCHES AT JAMAICA BEACH. WOW! THE AREA HASN'T SEEN THIS KIND             
OF SNOWFALL SINCE AT LEAST 1989.                                                
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE COASTAL BEND IS                 
MOVING STEADILY EAST-NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND SHOULD BE PUSHING            
INTO THE GULF. TEMPERATURES AT 5 AM AT COLLEGE STATION 29...CONROE              
32...IAH 35...WHARTON 30...PALACIOS 29...ANGLETON 30...AND GALVESTON            
36. CLOUDS OVER THE AREA HAVE KEPT THE TEMPERATURES MUCH WARMER                 
THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST THAT HAS BEEN VERY GOOD NEWS THOUGH               
THE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF CLEARING OUT FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST.            
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND 30 BUT                
IN MANY OF THE SOUTHERN SITES THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COMING UP THE          
LAST FEW HOURS...MORE GOOD NEWS.                                                
WILL BE EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER WARNING UNTIL 8 AM FOR THE                 
COASTAL COUNTIES AND HAVE CANCELLED IT ELSEWHERE.                               
SATELLITE...METARS AND RADAR INDICATING THAT THE SNOW IS TAPERING OFF           
AND COMING TO AN END. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY            
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE COASTAL WATERS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE                
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE BUILDS IN AND BRINGS CLEARING SKIES               
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A SLOW WARMUP AS RIDGE AXIS             
LINGERS ALONG THE COAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VIGOROUS                 
UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN THE WEST COAST AND A VERY DEEP TROUGH TAKING               
SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD GET STORMY FRIDAY OR                       
SATURDAY.                                                                       
45                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
EXPECT TIGHT GRADIENTS TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF THROUGH MID DAY                 
TODAY... SO WILL LEAVE SCA FLAGS UP 0-60 NM.  FOR THE BAYS... WINDS             
STILL AT CAUTION LEVELS... AND THOUGH THEY MAY DROP MORE RAPIDLY                
THAN THE GULF WATERS... WILL STILL KEEP SCEC IN EFFECT FOR FIRST                
PERIOD FORECAST.  HARD TO DELINEATE EXACTLY WHERE SNOW STOPS AND                
RAIN TAKES OVER IN THE COASTAL WATERS... BUT TRANSITION ALMOST                  
CERTAINLY COMPLETE BYD 20 NM WHERE ECHO GRADIENTS JUMP INTO THE 40-50           
DBZ RANGE. AT ISSUE HERE IS THAT AREAS WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE MAY                
HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF VSBY DOWN TO 1NM IN LIGHT SNOW.  AS UPPER                 
TROUGH CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE              
OUT OF THE REGION AND WINDS RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN 18-00Z.                 
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR CIGS/VSBY WILL BE RESTRICTED THIS MORNING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW               
CONTINUES.  THE PRECIP IS BEING SHUT OFF ON THE NORTH SIDE BY MID               
LEVEL CONFLUENCE WHICH ARCS FROM EAGLE LAKE TO ANAHUAC AT 08Z AND IS            
BEST DEPICTED IN 700 MB RUC.  HOBBY WILL REMAIN ON THE CUSP OF THIS             
FEATURE... BUT  EXPECTED TO HOVER AT MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS            
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL               
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 15Z.  NORTH OF KHOU - WHERE SNOW WILL            
NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE - EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK REMAINS WITH BASES               
6-10KFT AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS LIFTED OUT THIS               
AFTERNOON WITH THE MOTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THIS                
SYSTEM.                                                                         
38                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER WEATHER WARNING FOR COASTAL COUNTIES OF SE TX UNTIL 14Z.                 
SCEC BAYS.                                                                      
SCA 00-60 NM WATERS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)   45 27 57 36 61 / 00 00 00 00 00                         
HOUSTON (IAH)           44 28 56 36 62 / 20 00 00 00 00                         
GALVESTON (GLS)         41 37 53 48 60 / 50 00 00 00 00                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
437 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE INTENSE SNOW THIS MORNING AND SYNOPTIC               
SNOW FOR MONDAY                                                                 
CURRENT WEATHER...09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FROM ONTARIO            
AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO NEW MEXICO. TO              
THE NW...A SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE NORTHWEST            
TERRITORIES WITH RIDGING AHEAD OF IT OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA. AT THE             
SURFACE...A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER               
NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE A 1024MB LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG              
LAKE MICHIGAN NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. THE COMBINATION            
OF DPVA FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...LAND BREEZES AND              
LATENT HEATING FROM LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR HAS LED TO DOMINANT             
BANDING LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE BAND WHICH EXTENDED             
FROM NEAR CARIBOU ISLAND TO NEGAUNEE PRODUCED SNOWFALL RATES OF 3-4             
INCHES/HOUR AT OUR OFFICE FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS. ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW               
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH HAS            
BEEN AFFECTING DELTA COUNTY. GARDEN CORNERS IN EASTERN DELTA COUNTY             
RECEIVED 9.5 INCHES IN 12 HOURS ENDING AT 7 PM LAST NIGHT...WHICH               
HAS PROBABLY RECEIVED ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES SINCE THEN. VAD WIND                
PROFILE SHOWED THAT AT LEAST FOR THE BAND OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY IT              
IS ABOUT 5000 FT THICK. OTHER LES BANDS OF THE MULTI-PARALLEL BAND              
ORIENTATION WERE LOCATED OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS SEEN ON IR              
IMAGERY.                                                                        
FOLLOWED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ETA THROUGH THE FORECAST SINCE MODEL               
DIFFERENCES WERE MINOR.                                                         
TODAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING WITH                
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT FOR THE AFTERNOON (00Z INL               
SOUNDING HAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C FROM 850-500MB). MEANWHILE             
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV TO OUR NW MOVES TO NW ONTARIO. AT THE               
SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BUILDS                 
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z WHICH WILL HELP              
TO DIMINISH THE WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CURRENT INTENSE BAND OF             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER MARQUETTE COUNTY SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING                 
LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS DROP OFF...LAND BREEZES DIMINISH AND                
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.                
HOWEVER...THE LIGHT WINDS AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -18C MAY END            
UP AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF A MESO VORTEX TO FORM ON LAKE                    
SUPERIOR. BOTH THE 00Z ETA AND THE LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA INDICATE               
THIS AND HAVE IT DRIFTING UP TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE POTENTIAL               
FOR THIS MESO-LOW BUT THE OVERALL DIMINISHMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT               
DUE TO THE LIGHTENING WINDS...WILL BRING THE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO               
SCATTERED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ONLY KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THE             
EVENING.                                                                        
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD...ALLOWING            
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN              
FLOW TO SET UP. THIS SHOULD HELP IN STOPPING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW               
OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT                
ON LAKE MICHIGAN LATE AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 12C (KEEPING LAKE             
MICHIGAN DELTA-T ABOVE 17C). LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL END UP BEING LATE             
IN THE NIGHT AS THE WINDS TAKE A WHILE TO BECOME SW FROM THE SURFACE            
UP TO 850MB. THE BIG CONCERN WILL BE HOW LOW TO GO WITH THE                     
TEMPERATURES SINCE WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM IN THE EVENING DUE TO              
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW DEWPOINTS AND THE RECENT                 
SNOWFALL. COOP MOS SHOWS -12F FOR CHAMPION AND -5 FOR IMT WHICH                 
SEEMS REASONABLE. WARMER TEMPS THOUGH IN THE FAR WEST WHERE WINDS               
PICK UP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING.                                                 
MONDAY...SHRTWV BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY             
DURING THE DAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES TO LAKE SUPERIOR BY             
18Z MON THEN STALLS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES WILL               
RESULT IN A BAND OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.P.. CROSS SECTIONS DO              
SHOW SOME HELP FROM THE AGEOSTROPHIC VERTICAL CIRCULATION AS A 120              
KT JET MOVES TO LAKE HURON (PUTTING UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE RIGHT                 
ENTRANCE REGION). SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW WHERE THE                
BEST OMEGA INTERSECTS THE BEST SNOWGROWTH REGION WHICH IS ABOUT 5000            
FEET THICK. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH                   
RANGE...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IF MORE MOISTURE LOOKS TO            
BE PRESENT.                                                                     
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER JET SUPPORT DIMINISHES AS THE JET AXIS MOVES               
SOUTH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH            
THE NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THAT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE GFS STILL SHOWS                
PRECIP ALBEIT LIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF -SN IN.                     
RELUCTANT TO RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH THE ETA SHOWING LITTLE IN THE            
WAY OF ANY QPF. ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT -SN...FEEL                  
PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT CLOUDS WILL BE STUCK IN DUE TO THE ISENTROPIC             
LIFT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS...TEMPERATURES                 
SHOULD NOT FALL THAT MUCH.                                                      
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING               
THE THUNDER BAY AREA AROUND 00Z. SIMILAR SITUATION TO MONDAY NIGHT              
WHERE WE HAVE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE            
WAY OF UPPER JET SUPPORT. GIVEN THIS...THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRINT               
OUT LIGHT QPF. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR                   
FLURRIES WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THE MOMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER            
THOUGH WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER 850MB TEMP AIR. IN            
FACT THE GFS HAS 850MB TEMPS AT 18Z AT -5C OVER MUCH OF THE U.P..               
ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SUNSHINE...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS              
SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS TO NEAR 30.                                             
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE SHRTWV PASSES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...850MB              
TEMPS FALL TO -12C WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF LAKE                 
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON SUPERIOR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOCUS             
THE WESTERN U.P. AND EAST OF MARQUETTE AREAS. AWAY FROM THE LAKE                
LOOKS PRETTY QUIET WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE             
COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV.                                                     
EXTENDED...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR THURSDAY INTO             
FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW BEFORE IT SWITCHES OVER             
TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN AS ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVES UP HERE PER THE               
LATEST GFS. 12Z ECWMF SUGGEST SOMETHING SIMILAR.                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST MIZ005.                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
225 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SYNOPTIC...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL                  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST                 
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE IMAGERY              
AND RUC ANALYSIS HAS A DECENT SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY MOVING                 
EAST. THIS LOW IS BEING TRAILED BY AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW WHOSE                
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY              
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR              
TODAY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY               
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE               
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BY WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE ZONAL          
FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF                   
STATES. ONLY WEAK RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION.                      
EXTENDED ETA MODELS TRIES TO PAINT SOME SPRINKLES WEST OF THE REGION            
ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE BRUSHES THE AREA. WILL KEEP            
THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING TO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL            
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH IN THE WEST            
AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE                  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN OUR            
WESTERN ZONES AND PARISHES BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING              
COLD FRONT. GFSLR AND ECMWF BOTH STALL THIS COLD FRONT OVER THE                 
OZARKS SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER                   
FLOW...THEN THE 00Z MODELS HAVE IT COMBINE WITH SECOND BOUNDARY                 
COMING FROM THE NORTH.  A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST                
FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH               
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL              
MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND POPS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.  LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE               
PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY BUILDS IN.  LOOKS TOO DRY IN                   
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RADIATION FOG TONIGHT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       51  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0                                  
MERIDIAN      53  25  57  29 /   0   0   0   0                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/11                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
310 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AT 2 AM WE HAVE A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FALLING ACROSS                 
CENTRAL SC WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER             
THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT OBSRVATIONS AND REPORTS WE HAVE SHOW                  
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. WE HAVE                   
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...              
OVERPASES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.                                                
THE GOING FORECAST HAS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW/SLEET FROM AUGUSTA TO                 
COLUMBIA TO CHESTERFIELD NORTH AND WEST WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING RAIN LINE               
MAY ACTUALLY BE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SO WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING              
AT ADJUSTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TO            
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN. WE WOULD                   
CORRESPONINGLY ADJUST SNOW ACCUMUATIONS DOWN AND FOCUS ON ICE                   
ACCUMLATIONS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF 1/4 INCH ICE                       
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS.                                                    
BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT WITH THE            
0 DEG C LINE SPLITTING THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...WET BULB TEMPS ARE             
BELOW 0 C OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                           
THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NO REAL              
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS AROUND 3-6 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS MIXED            
BAG OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN IS BEING                   
REPORTED SOUTH OF COLUMBIA AND INTO THE AGS AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO             
CONTINUE. OGB IS BELOW FREEZING AND HAS REPORTED RAIN. VISIBILITIES WILL        
STAY ABOVE 6 MILES ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN HEAVIER BANDS OF                 
PRECIP. PRECIP WILL END AROUND 10 AM AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY               
SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO              
15 MPH AND WILL BECOME MORE NORTH LATER TODAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLUMBIA     38  26  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
AUGUSTA      41  26  54  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
SUMTER       38  25  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
ORANGEBURG   39  25  53  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
335 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINOR LEE SIDE TROF IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL             
CONTINUE TODAY AS AXIS OF 5H RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON             
AND TONIGHT. 80KT 25H JET PUNCHING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA             
PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS RAPIDLY ADVANCING THE CIRRUS DECK ACROSS             
ARIZONA. HAVE BROUGHT SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL                   
PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                                
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING THE 8H JET TO AROUND                   
35 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED MINS UP A                
DIGIT BASED ON OVERHEAD CIRRUS DECK AND LOW LEVEL JET.                          
STILL LOOKS LIKE EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF THE COAST OF             
CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS              
WAS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY REACHING THE                  
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (DGEX WAS ABOUT 8-12 HOURS SLOWER).                  
CLARENDON    55  30  59  34 /   0   0   0   0                                   
DALHART      50  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   0                                   
GUYMON       51  29  57  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
HEREFORD     51  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0                                   
LIPSCOMB     56  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0                                   
PAMPA        53  30  56  33 /   0   0   0   0                                   
SHAMROCK     57  31  60  36 /   0   0   0   0                                   
WELLINGTON   58  31  61  37 /   0   0   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15/13                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
1000 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...                             
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND             
YORK COUNTY IN MAINE. ONSHORE FLOW AT 925 MB IS DRIVING AREAS OF                
SNOW...WITH BANDS OF LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE                 
MAINE FOOTHILLS. 925 MB WINDS ARE PROGGED BY THE ETA/RUC TO PICK UP             
AND BACK TO MORE OF AN ENE DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO             
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SNOW INTENSITY...AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN SNOW             
BANDS.                                                                          
NO MODEL QPF HAS A HANDLE ON THIS...SO PRETTY MUCH HAVE TO LOOK AT              
WIND FIELDS FOR THE FORECAST.  THE ETA DOES SHOW QPFS IN SOUTHERN               
NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REASONABLE BASED ON IT'S LOW            
LEVEL WIND FLOW. HEAVIEST BANDS HAVE BEEN SETTING UP IN THE                     
FOOTHILLS...NOT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE...AS UPSLOPING SEEMS              
TO BE A KEY FEATURE.                                                            
UPDATED ZONES RAISING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS                      
TODAY...AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BASED ON THE ETA WIND FIELD.              
THERE IS ALREADY HEAVY SNOW REPORTS FROM NORTHERN MASS...SO ISSUED              
THE ADVISORY NOW BEFORE THE SNOW MOVES IN.                                      
KEEPING IN MIND THE CAUSE OF TODAYS SNOW IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT                
FROM THE CAUSE OF TONIGHTS SNOWS. WILL RE-EVALUATE TONIGHTS EVENT AS            
12Z MODEL DATA COMES IN...BUT AM GENERALLY EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES              
(HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BASED ON 00Z/06Z RUNS.                   
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                          
OCEAN STORM EXITS WEEL E OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HIGH PRES SLOWLY                   
BUILDING EWD INTO TUES.  SOME WEAK WAA FOR LATE TUES INTO WED WILL              
BRING CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME SNWO SHOWERS.  HIGH PRES REBUILDS OVER              
THE AREA FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND.  NO SIG COLD WX            
OR MAJOR STORMS EXPECTED THRU THE OUTLLOK PERIOD.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...BUT VARIABLE BASED ON            
SNOW BANDS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
MARINE...GALES TO BE HOISTED IN THE SHORT TERM.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEZ018-MEZ023.                                     
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NHZ007>010-NHZ013-014                              
MARINE...GLW.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE: APFFEL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1125 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON...                                                 
A CLOSE CALL. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LATEST 12Z ETA/RUC               
SOLNS THAT THE COASTAL SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT ANY PRECIP...IN              
THE FORM OF SNOW...WILL BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE LWX LOWER SRN             
MD REGION OF ST. MARYS AND CALVERT COUNTIES. HENCE HAVE REMOVED                 
MENTIONED OF SNOW OVER THE DC/BALT METRO REGIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON             
BUT LEFT MENTION OF "A FEW FLURRIES" IN THE FORECAST FOR BALT. AND              
S/E OF DC.                                                                      
THE OTHER NRN STREAM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON RADAR             
AS IT MOVES ACROSS OH/WV. HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT ZFP WORDING FOR SNOW             
SHOWERS FOR THE FAR WRN TIER OF ZNS...AND ACTUALLY ADDED MENTION OF             
FLURRIES FOR THE NORTHERN SHENANOAH AND CENTRAL MD.                             
FOR TONIGHT...AM STILL THINKING ABOUT THE SNOW ADVISORY. WL LEAVE AS            
IS FOR NOW...WITH INITIAL THOUGHTS BEING ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE            
CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY AREA...ALLEGANY MD AND MINERAL/GRANT CO. IN WV            
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR...12Z ETA SHOWS A 060-070 BKN-OVC DECK                
MOVING THROUGH THE DC/BALT AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKIES             
TO BE CLEARING BETWEEN 06-12Z MON.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WL RAISE SCA EVERYWHERE INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AS               
THE SFC LOW OFF THE DELMAVRA COAST DEEPENS TONIGHT...WINDS WL                   
INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA CONDTIONS BY MIDNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS.                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (MONDAY AND BEYOND)...                                      
MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL               
ENSUE AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC. ETA/GFS ARE EVEN MORE                
INTREPID WITH COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK             
ABOUT 5-8F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND A 30KT SPEED              
CORE AT 850 MB...HAVE TRENDED UP WIND SPEEDS...STILL BELOW BREEZY               
CATEGORY FOR PUBLIC PURPOSES BUT GETTING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY              
CRITERIA FOR MARINE PURPOSES. AT NIGHT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CEASE              
AND 850 MB SPEED CORE WILL DEPART ALLOWING WINDS WILL DIMINISH.                 
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY GETS SQUELCHED TO THE SOUTH ON              
WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT SKIRTING BY TO OUR NORTH.            
WITH A LACK OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH               
SURFACE TROUGH ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED.                      
MODERATION OF TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND HAVE            
KNOCKED TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS DOWN A TAD...ALTHOUGH WITH SURFACE HIGH              
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A            
MORE NOTICEABLE WARM UP.                                                        
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLAT WEST FLOW DEVELOPS MORE OF AN                  
AMPLIFICATION AS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS TRANSLATES                         
EAST...NUDGING UP HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES FOR ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS. THE                
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH            
A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO. KEPT FORECAST DRY UNTIL SATURDAY            
WHERE COLD FRONT BRINGS 20 POPS (P-TYPE RAIN) WHICH DONT EVEN MAKE              
IT INTO THE TEXT PRODUCTS THIS FAR OUT. WOULD NOT EVEN BE SURPRISED             
IF MODELS TREND SLOWER AND/OR START TO SHOW FRONT NOT TOTALLY MAKING            
IT THROUGH THE CWA IF A MISSISSIPPI WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT OVER THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADV TNGT MDZ002.                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...SNOW ADV TNGT WVZ048-049.                                                  
MARINE...SCA TODAY ANZ530>534.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMZ                                                       
MARINE...RDH                                                                    
PREV LONG TERM...PELOQUIN                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
934 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING                    
ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO END.  WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW CHANCES...              
BUT LIKELY LEAVE FLURRY MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH                    
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND 850 TEMPS DROPPING                 
BELOW MINUS 12 C.                                                               
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IS ENSUING BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE LATEST              
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP AT 850 MB TODAY...AND WITH              
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK I THINK                   
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND SLIGHTLY.  GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN               
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE               
IN A FEW MINUTES.                                                               
JOHNSTONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                              
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                             
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 938 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2004               
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING)...                                      
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR SHOWING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER                   
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS GOES ALONG MORE WITH              
THE QUICKER 18Z GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS TREND HAVE UPDATED TO BRING            
SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER. KEPT POPS THE SAME.                      
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND            
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS FEEL THAT THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FALL TOO               
MUCH LATER TONIGHT SO RAISED MINIMUMS QUITE A BIT.                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1012 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NRN NC MTNS AS WINDS SHOULD            
COME UP TO 15 TO 25 LATE TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND PERSIST              
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 THROUGH TONIGHT.               
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...HG                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...HG                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
730 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY FREEZING             
RAIN NOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN                  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED         
SURFACES. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM             
AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA TO LANCASTER BY 900 AM AND SOUTH AND EAST OF THAT           
LINE FROM 10 AM TO 11 AM.                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
AT 2 AM WE HAVE A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES FALLING ACROSS                 
CENTRAL SC WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN 30 AND 34 DEGREES OVER             
THE AREA. THE MOST RECENT OBSRVATIONS AND REPORTS WE HAVE SHOW                  
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. WE HAVE                   
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF ICING ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES...              
OVERPASES AND ELEVATED SURFACES.                                                
THE GOING FORECAST HAS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW/SLEET FROM AUGUSTA TO                 
COLUMBIA TO CHESTERFIELD NORTH AND WEST WITH FREEZING RAIN SOUTH                
AND EAST. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE FREEZING RAIN LINE               
MAY ACTUALLY BE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SO WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING              
AT ADJUSTING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE TO            
PREDOMINANTLY FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN. WE WOULD                   
CORRESPONINGLY ADJUST SNOW ACCUMUATIONS DOWN AND FOCUS ON ICE                   
ACCUMLATIONS. WE HAVE ALREADY HAD REPORTS OF 1/4 INCH ICE                       
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS.                                                    
BOTH RUC AND ETA SHOW VERY TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALOFT WITH THE            
0 DEG C LINE SPLITTING THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE...WET BULB TEMPS ARE             
BELOW 0 C OVER MOST OF THE AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER                           
THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. NO REAL              
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS AROUND 3-6 THOUSAND FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z AS MIXED            
BAG OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN IS BEING                   
REPORTED SOUTH OF COLUMBIA AND INTO THE AGS AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO             
CONTINUE. OGB IS BELOW FREEZING AND HAS REPORTED RAIN. VISIBILITIES WILL        
STAY ABOVE 6 MILES ACROSS THE AREA...EXCEPT IN HEAVIER BANDS OF                 
PRECIP. PRECIP WILL END AROUND 10 AM AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY               
SUNNY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO              
15 MPH AND WILL BECOME MORE NORTH LATER TODAY.                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLUMBIA     38  26  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
AUGUSTA      41  26  54  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
SUMTER       38  25  51  28 / 100  10   0   0                                   
ORANGEBURG   39  25  53  29 / 100  10   0   0                                   
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING SCZ009-014>016-            
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.                                                
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING GAZ040-063>065-            
077.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE NCZ082 UNTIL 12 PM EST.                   
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE SCZ014 UNTIL 12 PM EST.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...MCAVOY                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
230 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANTS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORIENTED NNW-SSE DOWN THE              
MIDDLE OF THE LAKE. BULK OF THE SNOW NOW BEING DEPOSITED IN BERRIEN             
AND LAPORTE COUNTIES BUT SNOW BAND GRADUALLY DRIFTING SSW. LAKE                 
EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY DRIFTED SSW INTO CHICAGO. LATEST RUC               
INDICATES LIGHT NNW FLOW OVER NRN IL AND STRONGER NNE FLOW DOWN THE             
LAKE WITH BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG IL SHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND              
EARLY EVENING. BUT DELTA T FORECAST TO DROP BELOW SIGNIFICANT LAKE              
EFFECT THRESHOLDS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME WINDS SHOULD             
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE. WILL KEEP                 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION NW IN AND            
IMMEDIATE IL LAKEFRONT THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.            
OTHERWISE TONIGHT MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN AREAS OF               
NRN IN AND EAST CENTRAL IL AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WILL                  
ADJUST LOW TEMPS DOWN OVER SNOW FIELDS...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE TEMPS               
LOOK REASONABLE.                                                                
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BROAD RIDGING ACROSS MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY             
WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR NRN IL AND IN. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL             
PASS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE              
WILL BE LIMITED AND SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF IL AND IN. BIG STORM            
OFF CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INTO PLAINS ABOUT THURSDAY. BIG WARM             
UP AND A SHOT AT SOME RAIN THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES DRYING OUT FRIDAY            
AND SATURDAY.                                                                   
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGYY...HAVE GONE WITH A OPTIMISTIC FCST IN                
TERMS OF CIGS AND VISB. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LAKE                        
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS IS                 
SUPPORTED IN THE NEAR-TERM BY VIS/SFC/88D TRENDS AND THE RUC.                   
IF THE CIGS DUE MOVE WEST INTO THE TERMINALS IFR CONDITIONS                     
WILL DEVELOP AS CIGS AT KRAC HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 800 FEET WITH                    
HAZE. GYY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR WITH IFR LATER TODAY WIN THE                
SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE UP TILL THIS POINT REMAINED EAST OF THE                    
AIRPORT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME               
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TOMORROW. MID AND HIGH LVL                  
CLOUDS ARRIVE NEAR DAWN ASSOC WITH WAA.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1139 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A MOSAIC OF RADAR SITES ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHOW A BAND OF SNOW                 
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. SURFACE                    
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE SOUTHERN                
END OF THE LAKE AND CONVERGENCE IN THE CENTER NORTH SOUTH AXIS OF               
THE LAKE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST                     
CORNER OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MESOETA AND WORKSTATION ETA SHOWS                  
THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH 00 UTC                      
MONDAY. WILL FORECAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE AND                  
NEAR SHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL MAKE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE               
HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                 
LAKE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE 300 MB                  
WIND FORECAST SHOWS THE JET STREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.               
THERE IS DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET 12 UTC TUESDAY. IN                  
THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS90 IS FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE SEEN ON                  
THE 500 MB MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN GREAT                   
LAKES. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN DAY 6. THE MOS                  
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEK SHOWS THE WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE                      
FORECAST AREA WITH THE SOUTH WIND AT THE SURFACE BEGINNING ON                   
MONDAY. WHW                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGYY...HAVE GONE WITH A OPTIMISTIC FCST IN                
TERMS OF CIGS AND VISB. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LAKE                        
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SN WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THIS IS                 
SUPPORTED IN THE NEAR-TERM BY VIS/SFC/88D TRENDS AND THE RUC.                   
IF THE CIGS DUE MOVE WEST INTO THE TERMINALS IFR CONDITIONS                     
WILL DEVELOP AS CIGS AT KRAC HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 800 FEET WITH                    
HAZE. GYY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR WITH IFR LATER TODAY WIN THE                
SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE UP TILL THIS POINT REMAINED EAST OF THE                    
AIRPORT. SFC WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND THEN BECOME               
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SE FLOW TOMORROW. MID AND HIGH LVL                  
CLOUDS ARRIVE NEAR DAWN ASSOC WITH WAA.                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
318 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE LINGERING LES THIS EVENING...THEN            
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH HEADING BY TO             
OUR NORTH EARLY MONDAY AND A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WHICH MOVE                
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC               
UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS...WITH AN                 
UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THE               
TROUGH CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA. SHORTWAVE WHICH CAN             
BE SEEN DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH               
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A MINIMAL DIRECT              
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA...OTHER THAN TO MOISTEN THE MID-LEVELS A            
BIT. THE 12Z GFS AND ETA ARE SIMILAR THROUGH THE FORECAST                       
PERIOD...AND WILL GENERALLY UTILIZE A BLEND OF THEIR GUIDANCE. THE              
GFS IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT             
ON TUESDAY...BUT THE OVERALL DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL.                           
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 88D IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LES              
BANDING ON LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GENERALLY EAST-WEST BANDS OVER                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BANDS OVER THE WEST.              
THE MESOLOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED MARQUETTE COUNTY FOR THE PAST 18-24               
HOURS HAS ESSENTIALLY LOST ITS IDENTITY...AND THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL            
ONSHORE FLOW PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED BY IT HAS RESULTED IN MOST OF THE              
LES ACTIVITY STALLING JUST OFFSHORE OF MARQUETTE COUNTY. THE ONSHORE            
FLOW NO LONGER APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO ADVECT THE PCPN UP THE HIGHER              
TOPOGRAPHY OF MARQUETTE COUNTY...AND SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS                    
SPILLING INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND EAST...IN KEWEENAW              
BAY AND INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF HARVEY. CURIOUSLY...SOME OF THE                  
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ABOVE 1000FT APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING                    
INLAND...HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE AXIS OF            
HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND OVER BARAGE AND NORTHEAST IRON COUNTIES.                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING            
HOURS...BUT MOST OF THE HEAVIER LES SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN                   
OFFSHORE. THE EXCEPTIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE                     
LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF KEWEENAW BAY AND AREAS NEAR SHOT               
POINT AND LAUGHING WHITEFISH POINT. THOSE LOCATIONS COULD STILL PICK            
UP A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE             
CONDITIONS FOR LES BECOME MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. THE 12Z ETA AND WSETA            
BOTH SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DECREASING SUBSTANTIALLY                  
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE WORK IN            
AND THE INVERSION LOWERS. IN ADDITION...SYNOPTIC SCALE SOUTHERLY                
FLOW SHOULD FINALLY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG BY LATE EVENING TO               
PUSH ANY LINGERING LES OUT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH ONLY A FEW                  
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED...WILL ALLOW HEADLINES TO EXPIRE             
WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
RETURN FLOW WILL SETUP BY LATE EVENING...WITH WAA FROM THE SURFACE              
THROUGH 700MB. SHORTWAVE WILL WORK BY TO OUR NORTH MONDAY                       
MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE                  
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LAG THE             
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THINGS DON/T REALLY LOOK LIKE THEY WILL                
MOISTEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. AT THAT                    
POINT...THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH               
SOME WEAK 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF                    
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL                 
PROBABLY MANAGE TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO              
MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE AREA               
INTO TUESDAY...WHEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN US               
TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD            
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY-TUESDAY EVENING...WITH SOME DPVA              
AND WAA AHEAD OF IT. WILL MENTION LIKELY LIGHT SNOW AS THIS WORKS               
THROUGH THE AREA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS                  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MARGINALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND              
LINGERING MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COLDER                
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOWN BY THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IF THE ETA              
WERE TO VERIFY LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME             
POST-FROPA FREEZING DRIZZLE.                                                    
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH FAIRLY DECENT                  
HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASING 925-700MB TEMPERATURES. ATTENTION WILL              
THEN TURN TOWARD THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE                 
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TO               
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH AND WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE             
REGION ON THURSDAY. GOOD WAA AND MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BRING THE               
CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN INTO THE CWFA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST                  
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PCPN MAY INITIALLY BE SNOW...FORECAST                    
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SUPPORT A               
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF            
RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION FROM                   
SNOW-RAIN...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS POINT.             
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON               
THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN FROM THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE               
WEEKEND. TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH                     
AMERICA...WITH SHORTWAVES PERIODICALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE               
LONGWAVE TROUGH TOWARD OUR AREA. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE              
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SHORTWAVES...BUT THE DIFFERENCES ARE              
NOT SUBSTANTIAL. IN GENERAL...THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE              
UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN COMPARISON TO THE 00Z                
GFS. THE CANADIAN IS MORE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...AND WITH THE MORE              
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN EJECT SHORTWAVES WHICH            
ARE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE DURING THE PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLES                  
SUPPORT ITS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION. GIVEN THE HIGHLY                  
AMPLIFIED FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST...SEE NO REASON            
WHY THE ARRIVAL OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL NOT CONTINUE TO            
KEEP A DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD. WILL ESSENTIALLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND               
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH IN THE LARGE PICTURE ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR              
TO ONE ANOTHER.                                                                 
EXPECT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THURSDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A DECENT WARM-UP AHEAD OF THIS                
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND THE SURFACE LOW            
LIKELY TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AM NOT EXPECTING                  
OVERWHELMINGLY WARM READINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF              
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA...BUT WILL JUST GO WITH A CHANCE OF            
RAIN OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED 850MB               
TEMPERATURES AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH REGARD              
TO THIS FEATURE. COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW            
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING PCPN TO CHANGE             
TO SNOW. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW ON SATURDAY FOR SOME                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AND                
850MB TEMPERATURES OF -10C TO -15C. RIDGING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BUILD            
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD WORK            
TO KILL OFF MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...WITH THE                
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH...SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND SNOW FLURRIES ARE             
STILL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST                  
TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND THE GFS TRACKS AN ASSOCIATED                  
SURFACE LOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING WHILE INCREASING              
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW BACK              
INTO THE ENTIRE CWFA BY LATE SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME SNOW FROM THIS FEATURE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS UPDATE ARE CONTINING SNOWFALL OVER THE                  
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES.                              
KMQT 88D RADAR SHOWS INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUING TO                
MOVE ONSHORE NEAR BIG BAY...WITH REFLECTIVITIES REACHING INTO THE               
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA COUNTIES. CURRENT WINDS                
ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ARE FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH A GRADUAL            
VEERING TO THE EAST TOWARDS WHITEFISH BAY. RUC13 WINDS...EVEN THE               
PRECIP FIELD...MATCH UP PRETTY WELL WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND DEPICT             
THE WINDS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DECREASING AND VEERING TO THE            
EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY THIS EVENING.                
THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW BAND TO CONTINUE IMPACTING MARQUETTE                   
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM MARQUETTE TOWARD BIG               
BAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE                  
EXTENDED UNTIL 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AND THE REDUCED VISIBILITY WITHIN THE                  
SNOWBAND. SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF A             
FEW INCHES IN AN HOUR.                                                          
ELSEWHRE ACROSS THE CWA...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ARE               
OCCURING AS DEPICTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE              
IMAGERY. THE BEST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR                
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT WINDS ARE KEEPING THE BANDS               
FROM PUSHING INLAND. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS                     
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE. THE            
REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS             
MADE TO THE WINDS AND SKY COVER.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST MIZ005.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
117 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME PATCHY IFR STRAUS REMAINS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR...BUT EXPECT             
THIS TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL SEE SOME STRATO-CU IN THE                 
4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LINGER A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL FORECAST              
CLEARING AT ALL THE TAF SITES BY 06Z.  DEPENDING HOW EARLY WE                   
CLEAR...COULD SEE FOG DEVELOP LATE.  HAVE INTROUDCED MVFR FOG LATE AT           
ALL SITES...WITH A TEMPO IFR AT DAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 934 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING                    
ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO END.  WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW CHANCES...              
BUT LIKELY LEAVE FLURRY MENTION OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH                    
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES AND 850 TEMPS DROPPING                 
BELOW MINUS 12 C.                                                               
MODERATE COLD ADVECTION IS ENSUING BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE LATEST              
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP AT 850 MB TODAY...AND WITH              
THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER AN EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK I THINK                   
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REBOUND SLIGHTLY.  GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN               
UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE AVAILABLE               
IN A FEW MINUTES.                                                               
JOHNSTONE                                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 703 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                              
UPDATED SOUTHERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR AREA OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH               
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS AND                 
MENTIONED SOME ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 610 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                           
CIGS HAVE LOWERED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG AND VSBY            
IN SCT AREAS OF SNOW THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A             
GOOD HANDLE ON SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.              
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE 15Z TO 16Z TIME FRAME AT TAF SITES.                
WILL FORECAST CIGS TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 FEET FOR MOST              
OF DAY. CIG EXPECTED TO BECOME UNRESTRICTED AT MOST TAF SITES AFT               
02Z.                                                                            
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
CLIPPER SYSTEM INITIALLY THOUGHT TO BE OVER IN WESTERN FA BY                    
DAYBREAK...BUT ACCUM NEAR AN INCH BACK IN INDIANA...AND SOME LOCAL              
REPORTS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL PROMPT A LIKELY WORDING THIS                 
MORNING IN NORTHERN HALF...WTH MENTION OF UP TO AN INCH ACCUM.                  
FOR LATER TODAY WTH PASSAGE OF CLIPPER...TMPS SIMILAR TO SAT                    
HIGHS...THEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEGINS TOWARD SUNSET. WTH FRESH                   
DUSTING OF SNOW AND HIGH SETTLING INTO FA...TMPS OVER SNOWPACK                  
SHOULD BE NEAR ZERO ONCE AGAIN. AS PER IND DISCUSSION...STRONG                  
INVERSION MAY RESULT IN SOME STRATUS OR FOG WHICH MAY HAMPER THE                
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR MONDAY...STRONGER WAA SETS UP AS HIGH             
PUSHES OFF TO EAST. AFTER FIRST PERIOD...HAVE GENERALLY GONE CLOSER             
TO ETA NUMBERS WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
115 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
A QUICK UPDATE DUE TO HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES OVER THE                
WEST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  FULL SUN CONTINUES TO SPREAD               
FROM WEST TO EAST.  MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND LEFT ALL                 
ELSE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1012 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
UPDATED TO ADD LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN THE NRN NC MTNS AS WINDS SHOULD            
COME UP TO 15 TO 25 LATE TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND PERSIST              
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 957 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
PLAN ON CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SHORTLY WITH                     
PRECIPITATION BAND SAFELY EAST OF THE AREA AND ONLY ONE REPORT OF               
SOME MINOR ACCUMS IN SOUTHEAST CHESTER COUNTY. COLD IR CLOUD SHIELD             
IS WARMING AND SHRINKING RAPIDLY AND MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE             
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SOLID HIGH STRATOCU OR LOW AC DECK                  
ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH ERN TN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BACK             
AT LEAST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND POSSIBLY THE NRN TIER. WILL                
THUS PUSH TEMPS UP 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN SW NON MTN LOCATIONS...A COUPLE            
OF DEGREES IN THE MTNS...AND AROUND A DEGREE IN THE NE PARTS.                   
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 608 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
WL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR               
UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO. DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SET UP ABOUT 20                
MILES FARTHER E THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD SPARE MOST OF             
THE CWFA ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. HOWEVER...PARTS OF CHESTER AND            
UNION CO NC WL STILL PROBABLY SEE A FEW HRS OF A MODERATE SNOW/SLEET            
MIX. RUC AND ETA SOUNDINGS STILL IMPLY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN IN OUR             
AREA SHOULD BE SNOW AND AREAS FROM GREAT FALLS TO STURDIVANTS MAY               
STILL GET AN INCH OR TWO.                                                       
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 253 AM EST SUN DEC 26 2004               
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE 300K SFC ON THE ETA AND GFS DOES A GOOD JOB OF SHOWING THE SHARP            
DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WL CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND               
SRN UPSTATE THIS MORNING. AT 0600 UTC THE ETA SHOWED DOWNGLIDE OVER             
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GSP CWFA...WHICH BECOME STRONG UPGLIDE JUST               
INTO CAE/S AREA. THIS MATCHES UP WELL W/RADAR TRENDS AND SFC REPORTS.           
BY 0900 UTC THE THIS AREA OF ASCENT JUST WORKS INTO SRN UNION...                
CHESTER AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...THEN PUSHES E A LITTLE AFTER 1200              
UTC. ALOFT THE DEFORMATION ZONE SLOPES BACK TO THE WEST...AND THERE             
IS GOOD OMEGA BETWEEN ABOUT 500-300 MB OVER A SIZABLE PART OF THE               
UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE LIMITED PCPN W OF             
THE 700 MB DEFORMATION ZONE. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS            
IDEA. TAKING THE MID POINT (ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE 1000-500              
MB THICKNESSES) OF THE LEAF OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF THE                  
EJECTING 500 MB LOW...THE AREA OF HEAVIEST PCPN WL JUST SKIRT THE SRN           
TIER OUR OUR ZONES. FINALLY...THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AT H7            
ON THE ETA AND GFS SETS UP JUST E. USING THE SNOWBAND AWIPS                     
PROCEDURE...BEST AREA OF SLOPING FRONTOGENESIS AND SATURATED EPV                
LOOKS TO STAY E OF THE CWFA. ATTM REFLECTIVITIES ARE INCREASING RIGHT           
IN THIS AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE HEART OF MIDLANDS.                     
MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SUPPORT ALL SNOW THIS FAR NE...SO WL GO               
WITH THAT IN THE GRIDS AND REMOVE THE MIXED PCPN. AS FOR HOW                    
MUCH...THE SRN MOST PART OF THE GREENWOOD TO UNION NC ZONES MIGHT               
APPROACH WINTER STORM CRITERIA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...COUNTYWIDE             
AVERAGES SHOULD FALL BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA. THIS MATCHES UP               
QUITE WELL WITH THE CURRENT ADVISORY...AND DO NOT PLAN TO UPGRADE               
ANY COUNTIES TO A WARNING YET.                                                  
SO OVERALL THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE HEAVY             
PCPN AND PCPN TYPE THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HRS. HOWEVER...A TRACK ERROR OF              
EVEN 10 MILES WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PCPN TOTALS. ATTM IT               
APPEARS THAT THE I-85 URBAN CORRIDOR FROM CLT TO GSP SHOULD STAY                
WEST OF THE HEAVY SNOW.                                                         
THE WEATHER WL BE QUIET FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING/S                   
EXCITEMENT AS A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE WL PUSH ALL THIS MESS OUT TO              
SEA BY THIS AFTN. LOWERED DWPTS QUITE A BIT MON AND TUE AND CUT SKY             
COVER IN HOPES OF GETTING SUNNY WORDING INTO THE GRIDS ON MON.                  
STAYED QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.           
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                 
NO CHANGES BEYOND WED.                                                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH                 
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN                
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WEATHER AT TAF SITES WILL BE HIGHLY                 
DEPENDENT ON SFC LOW TRACK. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP ANY                
SNOW OR SLEET THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABBEVILLE TO                   
LAURENS TO MONROE DURING THROUGH 15Z. WILL KEEP BROKEN AC DECK EARLY            
THIS MORNING...WITH INCREASING NRLY FLOW. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM             
W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES NCZ033-049-050 TODAY AND TONIGHT.             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...DEO/HG                                                    
LONG TERM...SAB                                                                 
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