AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
927 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                      
JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE. ADJUSTED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST                    
ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO CHANGED THE                
WIND FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND RUC. KEPT OVERNIGHT MINS               
THE SAME. HOWEVER...HAD TO ADJUST NOT ONLY THE TEMPERATURE TREND BUT            
ALSO THE DEWPOINT DUE TO CONVECTION CREATING A LARGE RANGE IN VALUES            
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                                                       
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
100 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                      
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST                  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION                   
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO NORTHWARD ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH                
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. MAV POPS ARE VERY LOW                    
COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WETTER OF THE            
TWO AND WATCH LATEST TRENDS BEFORE BUMPING POPS UP. LOWS TONIGHT                
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60.             
SURFACE BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT OR EARLY IN             
THE MORNING AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AT OR SLIGHTLY              
ABOVE READINGS TODAY WITH UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 90S EAST.                
WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST            
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDES IN VICINITY OF FRONT.                         
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THURSDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND HEAT UP AS             
WEST/SOUTHWEST COMPONENT ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE             
96 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT              
DRY ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN               
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON            
FRIDAY AS LEE TROUGH/BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE AREA AND MOIST                   
UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE TROUGH. FRIDAY NIGHT AND                     
SATURDAY...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES AND GFS BRINGS ANOTHER                
DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA..CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY LOOK GOOD WITH               
HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.                                          
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES AND HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO            
SHOW A WARMING TREND. GFS IS SHOWING QPF AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO               
THE AREA...HOWEVER LEFT SUNDAY/MONDAY DRY FOR NOW WITH RIDGE                    
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS.                                                   
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1059 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ON UPDATE ARE LINGERING SHRA THIS EVNG OVER FAR              
WRN COUNTIES AND THEN TIMING OF MORE SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF SHRA LATE             
TONIGHT AHD OF INCOMING CDFNT.                                                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES SHRTWV RDG OVR UPR MI                     
SANDWICHED BTWN VORTEX OVER WRN QUEBEC AND UPR LO OVER SRN MANITOBA.            
DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA GENLY HAVE DIED OFF ACROSS CWA EXCEPT FOR A FEW               
ISOLD SHRA OVER FAR WRN COUNTIES WHICH APPEAR TO BE FORMING ALG                 
WMFNT OVR NCNTRL WI. TOOK OUT EVNG SHRA FOR ALL BUT WRN COUNTIES ON             
EARLIER UPDATE.                                                                 
00Z MODELS SHOW SHRTWV OVER ND ROTATING EWD AROUND BASE OF UPR LOW              
OVR MANITOBA AND INTO MN AND NW WI BY 12Z AS SFC CDFNT MOVES SLOWLY             
INTO NE MN AND NW WI. MODELS SHOW GOOD DIFLUENCE AHD OF UPR LOW/TROF            
INTO WRN UPR MI AS WELL AS DIVERGENCE IN RRQ OF 50 KT JET MAX AND               
DPVA AHD OF SHRTWV. STRENGTHENING 8H JET OF 20-25 KT OVR WRN UPR MI             
PER ETA AND RUC AND INCRG THETA-E ADVECTION...AND 305K ISENTROPIC               
ASCENT SHOULD HELP INCREASE SHRA ACTIVITY OVER WRN COUNTIES BTWN                
08-12Z. THUS...KEPT WORDING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT FOR 4             
WRN COUNTIES.                                                                   
TEMPS LOOKED GOOD...SO MADE NO CHANGES THERE.                                   
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
.LONGER TERM(WED-FRI)...THE MDLS CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF SLOWING THE            
MOVEMENT OF THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...AND KEEPING THE LOW              
FARTHER WEST. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE RETROGRADING NATURE OF             
THE UPR LOW OVER QUEBEC. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPR LOW WILL DIVE INTO NRN MN WED...WITH THE S/WV            
RIDGE MOVING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO LK HURON DURING THE               
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE AND DPVA TO MOVE             
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP THRU THE AFTN. THE MDLS ALSO SHOW               
MODEST H8 POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THE DAY DUE            
TO A 30 KT LLJ FEATURE NOSING INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPR MICH DURING             
THE DAY. ALL OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO            
MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICH AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING            
THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. OVER THE EAST...THE MDLS SUGGEST               
THE S/WV RIDGE WILL HANG ON UNTIL LATE AFTN...ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER             
AIR. IN FACT...THE ETA SHOWS NVA THRU MID-LATE AFTN OVER THE EAST.              
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE EASTERN            
UP...HAVE OPTED TO GO ISO TSRA LATE OVER THE FAR EAST.                          
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL               
DURING THE DAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA IN DAY            
2 SLIGHT RISK. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY                        
IMPRESSIVE...LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES OF AROUND 8-9KFT WILL ALLOW               
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SVR HAIL FOR ANY ORGANIZED                       
STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE BEST FRONTAL FORCING                
WILL EXIST.                                                                     
BEST UPPER FORCING AND PVA MOVES THRU THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS               
AND ETA ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/POSITION OF            
INDIVIDUAL S/WVS ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. THE MAIN S/WV AND BEST            
UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL ROTATE INTO THE CWFA WED NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE             
DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES 1.45 INCHES). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR                  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.             
THIS AGREES WITH MOS POPS QUITE WELL. EVEN THOUGH SFC BASED                     
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL TEND            
TO INCREASE AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD            
POOL ALOFT.                                                                     
THE ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPR LOW OVER FAR WESTERN LK                
SUPERIOR/NRN MN ON THU. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING              
THE FIRST S/WV TO ROTATE INTO LK SUPERIOR THU MORNING. THIS MAY                 
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING THU MORNING THRU THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE             
EAST WHERE THE MDLS SUGGEST A WEAK DRY SURGE TO MOVE NWD. WITH THE              
NVA AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS (ESPECIALLY            
SOUTH AND EAST) WILL SEE A DRY PERIOD THU MORNING/AFTN BEFORE THE               
NEXT S/WV APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT THE WEST WILL               
STAY SHOWERY ALL DAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPR LOW. HOWEVER...WILL                
KEEP THE ENTIRE UP UNDER SCT POPS ALL DAY THU DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF             
S/WV TIMING/POSITION AND POSSIBLE DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION WITH COLD             
POOL ALOFT. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE WEST...HOWEVER.                   
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE UPR LOW REMAINS               
CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...SO WILL                   
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS. WILL ONLY GO WITH ISO T SINCE CLDS WILL                 
LIMIT SFC HEATING SIGNIFICANTLY AND MID LAPSE RATES DECREASE.                   
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON WED WHERE TEMPS COULD BE              
IN THE LOWER 80S ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE CLDS ARRIVE                  
LATEST.                                                                         
MRD                                                                             
DAYS 4-7 (SAT-TUES)...                                                          
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE                    
FEATURES.  GFS ALSO SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A                  
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A SLOWER LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SAT INTO                  
SUNDAY.  ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE SLOWLY MOVING                   
CLOSED LOW AND A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF... TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS                 
SOLUTION.  UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AS              
OCCLUDED SFC SLOW STALLS AND SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED.                 
WITH BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RISING HEIGHTS                
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TREND GRIDDED FCST WITH A SLOWER                     
DEPARTING UPPER LOW SUN AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHWRS.  COLD POOL             
ALOFT WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... LOW             
FREZ LEVELS AND MODEST CAPE/L.I. VALUES WARRANTS MENTION OF THUNDER             
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.                                                           
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH                
COLUMBIA HELPS CARVE OUT A TROF AND EVENTUALLY AN IMPRESSIVE CUT                
OFF LOW PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE                 
PLANS AND HELPING KICK THE GREAT LAKES LOW EASTWARD BY MON.  RISING             
HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH INCREASED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LVL ANTI-             
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT TO A RETURN TO FAIR WX MON-TUES ALTHOUGH              
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY SLOW THIS PROCESS WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A                 
FORECAST FOR PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO MON.                                       
ED F                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT.                                                           
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LINGERING SHRA/TSRA TRENDS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW FLOW INTO THE WRN LAKES                
BTWN VORTEX OVER NE ONTARIO AND SHRTWV RDG OVER NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF             
NEXT H5 LO OVER NW MANITOBA. SHRTWV LOBE EXTENDED FROM WRN MANITOBA             
INTO NW ND. AT THE SFC...UPSTREAM TROF EXTENDED FROM NW MN INTO                 
CNTRL SD WHILE WEAK GRADIENT PREVAILED OVER UPR MI AS WEAK RDG                  
EXTENDED FROM JAMES BAY TOWARD IL. SCT SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED                 
ALONG LK SUPERIOR BREEZE FRONT IN MARQUETTE INTO NW DELTA COUNTY AND            
OVER SW UPR MI WHERE MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SFC HEATING HAD                 
PUSHED T/TD TO NEAR 81/61. INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000                   
J/KG...PER LAPS ANALYSIS...AND WEAK LOW AND MID LVL WIND FIELDS WERE            
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD PULSE CELLS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND               
SOME MAINLY SMALL HAIL. ONLY A FEW -SHRA OR SPRINKLES INDICATED                 
UPSTREAM OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD...PER KDLH RADAR.                                
TONIGHT...EXPECT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND            
SRN UPR MI TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING LEAVING A LULL IN THE             
PCPN BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PCPN ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. 12Z/18Z ETA               
SCENARIO LOOKS REASONABLE WHERE SHRTWV WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSRA               
MOVING INTO WRN UPR MI LATE (BTWN 06Z-12Z). SHRA/TSRA WILL BE                   
SUPPORTED BY DECENT UPR LVL DIV/DIFFLUENCE AND DPVA ALONG WITH GOOD             
305K ISENTROPIC LIFT AS SW H8 WIND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES.                 
JLB                                                                             
.LONGER TERM(WED-FRI)...THE MDLS CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF SLOWING THE            
MOVEMENT OF THE UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...AND KEEPING THE LOW              
FARTHER WEST. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE RETROGRADING NATURE OF             
THE UPR LOW OVER QUEBEC. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD                  
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPR LOW WILL DIVE INTO NRN MN WED...WITH THE S/WV            
RIDGE MOVING FROM CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN INTO LK HURON DURING THE               
DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE AND DPVA TO MOVE             
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP THRU THE AFTN. THE MDLS ALSO SHOW               
MODEST H8 POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THE DAY DUE            
TO A 30 KT LLJ FEATURE NOSING INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPR MICH DURING             
THE DAY. ALL OF THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO            
MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICH AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING            
THE DAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. OVER THE EAST...THE MDLS SUGGEST               
THE S/WV RIDGE WILL HANG ON UNTIL LATE AFTN...ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER             
AIR. IN FACT...THE ETA SHOWS NVA THRU MID-LATE AFTN OVER THE EAST.              
GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL WEST OF THE EASTERN            
UP...HAVE OPTED TO GO ISO TSRA LATE OVER THE FAR EAST.                          
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TSRA OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL               
DURING THE DAY. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA IN DAY            
2 SLIGHT RISK. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS TO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY                        
IMPRESSIVE...LOW WET BULB ZERO VALUES OF AROUND 8-9KFT WILL ALLOW               
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SVR HAIL FOR ANY ORGANIZED                       
STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST HALF WHERE BEST FRONTAL FORCING                
WILL EXIST.                                                                     
BEST UPPER FORCING AND PVA MOVES THRU THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS               
AND ETA ARE ACTUALLY IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/POSITION OF            
INDIVIDUAL S/WVS ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW. THE MAIN S/WV AND BEST            
UPR DIFFLUENCE WILL ROTATE INTO THE CWFA WED NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE             
DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES 1.45 INCHES). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR                  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA.             
THIS AGREES WITH MOS POPS QUITE WELL. EVEN THOUGH SFC BASED                     
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL TEND            
TO INCREASE AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DECREASE DUE TO PROXIMITY OF COLD            
POOL ALOFT.                                                                     
THE ETA AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPR LOW OVER FAR WESTERN LK                
SUPERIOR/NRN MN ON THU. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING              
THE FIRST S/WV TO ROTATE INTO LK SUPERIOR THU MORNING. THIS MAY                 
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING THU MORNING THRU THE AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER THE             
EAST WHERE THE MDLS SUGGEST A WEAK DRY SURGE TO MOVE NWD. WITH THE              
NVA AND WEAK DOWNWARD MOTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS (ESPECIALLY            
SOUTH AND EAST) WILL SEE A DRY PERIOD THU MORNING/AFTN BEFORE THE               
NEXT S/WV APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THINK THAT THE WEST WILL               
STAY SHOWERY ALL DAY DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPR LOW. HOWEVER...WILL                
KEEP THE ENTIRE UP UNDER SCT POPS ALL DAY THU DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF             
S/WV TIMING/POSITION AND POSSIBLE DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION WITH COLD             
POOL ALOFT. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE WEST...HOWEVER.                   
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE UPR LOW REMAINS               
CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW WHILE SLOWLY MOVING EAST...SO WILL                   
CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS. WILL ONLY GO WITH ISO T SINCE CLDS WILL                 
LIMIT SFC HEATING SIGNIFICANTLY AND MID LAPSE RATES DECREASE.                   
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE               
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON WED WHERE TEMPS COULD BE              
IN THE LOWER 80S ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EAST WHERE CLDS ARRIVE                  
LATEST.                                                                         
MRD                                                                             
DAYS 4-7 (SAT-TUES)...                                                          
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REMARKABLY GOOD               
AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE IN HANDLING THE SYNOPTIC SCALE                    
FEATURES.  GFS ALSO SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A                  
SLIGHT TREND TOWARD A SLOWER LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SAT INTO                  
SUNDAY.  ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A MORE SLOWLY MOVING                   
CLOSED LOW AND A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF... TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS                 
SOLUTION.  UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT AS              
OCCLUDED SFC SLOW STALLS AND SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED.                 
WITH BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RISING HEIGHTS                
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL TREND GRIDDED FCST WITH A SLOWER                     
DEPARTING UPPER LOW SUN AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHWRS.  COLD POOL             
ALOFT WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES... LOW             
FREZ LEVELS AND MODEST CAPE/L.I. VALUES WARRANTS MENTION OF THUNDER             
FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.                                                           
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH                
COLUMBIA HELPS CARVE OUT A TROF AND EVENTUALLY AN IMPRESSIVE CUT                
OFF LOW PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE                 
PLANS AND HELPING KICK THE GREAT LAKES LOW EASTWARD BY MON.  RISING             
HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH INCREASED DRYING/SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LVL ANTI-             
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT TO A RETURN TO FAIR WX MON-TUES ALTHOUGH              
FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY SLOW THIS PROCESS WHICH MAY NECESSITATE A                 
FORECAST FOR PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO MON.                                       
ED F                                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1132 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                     
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH OCCASIONAL                  
EMBEDDED THUNDER...LOCATED FROM NEAR ONTONAGON SOUTHEAST TO NEAR                
ESCANABA. THE ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST            
HOUR AS IT SINKS SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS PCPN LINES UP WELL WITH AN AXIS             
OF NEGATIVE 850-500MB DIFFERENTIAL THETA-E AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC.              
IN ADDITION...THE RUC SHOWS A POCKET OF 850MB CONVERGENCE AND RH                
VALUES AOA 85 PERCENT...WHICH IS HELPING THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY             
TO BE REALIZED. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTIVE                    
INSTABILITY WILL SINK SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND 850              
MB CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE                   
THOROUGHLY MIXED. IN ADDITION TO THIS CONVECTION...THERE IS THE                 
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS               
THINGS HEAT UP.                                                                 
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM KINL...KGRB...AND KAPX INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR            
SOME INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND             
80 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SBCAPES ARE                      
UNIMPRESSIVE...AROUND AOB 600 J/KG...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHRA              
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOLAR HEATING WILL OBVIOUSLY PLAY A               
LARGE ROLE IN WHERE WE SEE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND               
THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RUC OUTPUT SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MOST             
PRONOUNCED OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT              
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...THE REMAINDER OF THE             
CWFA SHOULD STILL SEE THINGS WARMUP FAIRLY WELL BY LATE AFTERNOON.              
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...STILL LOOKS              
LIKE IT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF              
SURFACE HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOCATION OF              
LAKE BOUNDARIES AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE                 
INSTRUMENTAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA/TSRA. THE 00Z WSETA SUGGESTS            
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE KEWEENAW...AND IN             
AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN MARQUETTE AND NORTHERN DICKINSON COUNTIES                 
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. WITH SOME PCPN                    
ONGOING...AND WITH ENOUGH FACTORS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW            
SHRA/TSRA...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE               
ENTIRE CWFA...WHILE MENTIONING THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER OVER THE              
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
ZONES WILL BE OUT BY 1155 PM EDT.                                               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...18Z AVIATION ISSUANCE                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
109 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ALONG THE                 
ARKANSAS BORDER.  MORNING CONVECTION WAS TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR FAR            
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS THE UPPER WAVE WHICH TRIGGERED THE                      
PRECIPITATION PUSHED TOWARD TENNESSEE.  LOOKING UPSTREAM...ANOTHER              
UPPER WAVE WAS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
PLAINS.  MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN...DEALS ANY ADDITIONAL                
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PLAINS ENERGY INTERACTS            
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD PRECIPITATION      
ENDING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY AFTERNOON.  WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED             
FEATURES IN THE AREA...DECIDED TO KEEP 30 POPS GOING DURING THE                 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.              
THE LATEST RUN OF THE RUC HINTS AT SOME DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF HIGHWAY            
60 AFTER 21Z.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT ADD THUNDER IN THE KJLN AND KSGF TAFS.                  
NOT CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE.             
DID ADD A TEMPO FOR BROKEN 3000 FT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO HINT              
OF POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW               
SOME BROKEN CEILINGS RANGING FROM 2500 TO 4000 FT.  WITH LIGHT WINDS            
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE               
OVERNIGHT.  WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE WHETHER THIS NEEDS TO              
BE ADDED TO THE 00Z TAFS.  IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP...LINGERING               
CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION.                                
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
SAW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1020 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                     
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED ALTHOUGH CHANGES FOR THIS                    
AFTERNOON WILL BE FEW. EAST TO WEST FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY             
SOUTHWARD. LATEST MESO ANALYSES INDICATE CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE IN                 
SURFACE WIND FIELD EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN POLK COUNTY EASTWARD                   
THROUGH NORTHERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY AND ROWAN COUNTY.  MOISTURE                 
CONVERGENCE AXIS ACCOMPANIES THE WIND CONFLUENCE.  NORTH OF THIS                
FEATURE... SURFACE WINDS ARE NORTHEAST WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW                     
CONTINUES ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH... AT LEAST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.             
THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS... BUT             
TERRAIN IS MAKING RESOLUTION OF LOWER LEVEL WIND RATHER DIFFICULT.              
LATEST RUC SHOWS 500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST            
TO OUR WEST CONTINUING TO MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD.  AIR MASS OVER               
CWA IS UNSTABLE... BUT NOT SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO INDICATE                    
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.  FORECAST CAPES DURING TIME            
OF MAXIMUM HEATING DISPLAY A GRADIENT RANGING FROM 1900 IN WEST TO              
3200 IN EAST.  WILL CONTINUE POPS IN CURRENT FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON            
BUT PLAN TO INCREASE INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.                
CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING             
WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EAST AND THE               
SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM.                                           
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LGL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
932 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003                                                      
MONITORING CONTINUES OF CONVECTIVE/STRATIFORM RAIN IN WESTERN                   
MINNESOTA. EVENING SHOWERS NOW HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE LOCAL AREA.               
LATEST 02Z REGIONAL RADARS AND INFRARED GOES-12 IMAGERY INDICATE THE            
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA TO BE RAPIDLY DECAYING.               
SBCAPES ACROSS MINNESOTA ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG BUT THIS IS JUST NOT              
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN LONGER-LIVED SYSTEM IN THE WEAK WIND SHEAR                    
ENVIRONMENT. 0-3KM/0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY AROUND 20 KTS WHICH IS QUITE           
LOW FOR COLD-POOL SQUALL LINE SUSTAINANCE AND ALSO MUCH BELOW                   
SUPERCELLULAR MODES.                                                            
21Z/00Z LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE /THETAE             
CONVERGENCE/ MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL FRONT.                
THUS...INCREASING TREND OVERNIGHT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL                
LOOKS REASONABLE. NO REAL LOW-LEVEL JET ACTIVITY IN THIS ONE AND                
SLATER IA IS ONLY 10KTS FROM THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT TRENDS            
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS. HAVE UPDATE SKY TRENDS WITH TSRA DEBRIS                 
WORKING EAST. ALSO HAVE RAISED LOWS A BIT NORTH OF KDLL-KONA LINE               
WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COMING IN.                                                
WEDNESDAY IS STILL ON TRACK AND COULD END UP TO BE RAIN PRODUCER                
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. I WILL ADJUST QPF GRIDS UPWARD                   
BECAUSE IF IT DOES RAIN...WITH 1.5" PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AND             
SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SYSTEM...TOTALS COULD BE 0.50-1.00 INCHES.                 
BEST SCENARIO IS IF THE FRONT PAUSED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR             
SUNRISE AND SUNSHINE DESTABILIZED AIR MASS FOR AFTERNOON TSRA.                  
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CAPE BUILT              
WEDNESDAY. 18Z/29 ETA RUN SUGGESTED THIS POSSIBLE OUTCOME WITH 3-               
4000J/KG SBCAPE BY 18Z/WED. IT SEEMS A LATE-MORNING CONVECTIVE                  
INITIATION COULD OCCUR TOO. SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE WIND AND                    
POSSIBLY HAIL MAINLY ON THE INITIATION AREA OF THE STORMS SHOULD CAPE           
GROW LARGE.                                                                     
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS COMING.                                                   
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
348 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OVER               
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO              
BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS BEING PUSHED               
OUT AHEAD OF THE MANITOBA LOW AND IS TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHERN                 
MINNESOTA PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE FIRING             
ALONG AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO.              
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND            
A LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH                     
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MONTANA             
IS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A                      
STATIONARY FRONT STILL STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES FROM                
TEXAS TO NORTH CAROLINA.                                                        
THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT INTO THE LAKE OF THE                 
WOODS AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CYCLE              
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TODAY INTO THE WESTERN U.P.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AS THE            
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE 310K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE ASCENT OVER THE            
FORECAST AREA...AND 850-500MB MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE GREATER            
THAN 70 PERCENT. THE LATEST RUNS SHOWING ALSO THE HIGHEST RH AND                
LOWEST 310K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST             
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS IS ALSO AREA OF THE STRONGEST OMEGA AND            
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL WIND DIVERGENCE. AS THE LOW TREKS CLOSER TO THE             
U.P. TODAY...THE ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. TRAJECTORY               
FORECAST SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S TODAY...HOWEVER...                 
CLOUDY CONDITION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIMIT                 
HEATING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.            
A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.              
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT TO SEE SOME             
OF THESE WINDS MIX TO SURFACE. LI'S WILL LOWER TO -2...AND K-INDEX              
SHOULD REACH 32. VERY LITTLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TODAY...SO ANY               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.                
SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALSO.                                                    
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO THE ARROWHEAD AREA OF                   
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR               
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN             
U.P. THE THETA-E RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL                 
UPPER PENINSULA. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AS             
IT CROSSES THE AREA. Q-VECTORS CROSSING THE ISOTHERMS IMPLY A                   
WEAKENING OF COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                 
LIKELY OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SCATTERED BY SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL              
BLANKET THE AREA LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                  
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL EDGE INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY.             
THE SURFACE LOW WILL VENTURE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN DRAGGING THE               
FRONT INTO CENTRAL U.P. THE THETA-E RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL               
PUSH INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW             
WILL KEEP MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL              
WINDS STILL SHOWING WEAK DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE U.P. K-INDEX WILL BE             
AROUND 30. LIFTED INDEX WILL BE AROUND ZERO. Q-VECTORS STILL SUGGEST            
INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND MORE FRONTOLYSIS. WILL KEEP              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INSTABILITY WILL                                 
WEAKEN...HOWEVER...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FEED            
THE SYSTEM.                                                                     
THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE                 
WESTERN U.P./LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WILL CYCLE THROUGH THE U.P. Q-VECTORS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO              
GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN            
OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL FEED             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A BLANKET OF CLOUDS WILL             
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.                                             
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY              
NIGHT. Q-VECTORS WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE              
THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW               
WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. AND SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. A                
RIDGE SHIFTING INTO THE AREA WILL REDUCE THE CHANCE OF                          
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.                                      
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN                
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY CAUSING THE LOW OVER WESTERN U.P./LAKE                  
SUPERIOR TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL             
CONTINUE WITH THE LOW OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT                 
PUSHING INTO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS AND                  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STILL SOUNDS REASONABLE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY                
WRAPPING AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS                 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.                                              
NONE.                                                                           
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
331 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
FCST FOCUS ON APPROACHING SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA THROUGH THE                     
UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                               
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES WITH TIMING AND VERY SLOW SPEED OF CLOSED             
UPR SYSTEM...AS IT DROPS SEWD FROM NR LAKE WINNIPEG OVER UPR MIDWEST            
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.                                  
INITIAL LINE OF SHRA AND TSTMS OVER ERN DKTAS/MN DIMINISHED AS BETTER           
UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORTING CONVECTION LIFTED NE INTO THE MN                    
ARROWHEAD.                                                                      
FIRST SHOT OF PCPN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN WRN CWA...AND MOVING              
INTO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOC WITH LEAD SHRT WV TROF/VORT                
LOBE...ANALYZED OVER CNTRL MN AT 07Z RUC. LOBE WILL ROTATE INTO CNTRL           
WI BY 18Z AND ERN WI BY 00Z...WITH SUPPORTING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE                
LINGERING OVER THE EAST THRU 06Z. PCPN DEVELOPING ON ERN EDGE OF                
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE CONVERGING AHEAD OF SFC TROF...WITH MID 60              
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FEED INTO SRN WI THRU THE                    
MORNING.                                                                        
SFC TROF AND BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LAG BEHIND THIS FIRST LOBE               
AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SECOND BAND OF CONVECTION...AS AIRMASS               
DESTABILIZES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFKIT FCST SNDGS FOR             
MSN AT 00Z SHOW CAPES NEAR 1300 J/KG AND -3 LI/S WILL GO LIKELY IN              
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. EAST DOES NOT HAVE AS GOOD A CHANCE TO                 
DESTABILIZE SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS THERE. MODELS TAKE BULK OF THIS               
PCPN EAST OF CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN RE-FIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH               
INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPR LOW AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES.                                                                    
DIFFICULTIES ABOUND BEYOND THUR AFTN TRYING TO TIME FORCING ASSOC               
WITH VORT MAXES ROTATING AROUND UPR LOW AS IT SLOWLY SINKS INTO...              
AND THRU WI DURING THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ETA...WHILE IN STRONG                   
AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF UPR LOW CENTER THRU 84 HOURS...OUT OF                
PHASE BY 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH AFORE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMA. WILL              
CONTINUE WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN PCPN IN CURRENT FCST THRU THE                    
WEEKEND...AS 00Z GFS PLACES CENTER OF 500 MB LOW IN VCNTY OF LK                 
WINNEBAGO AT 00Z MON.                                                           
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                     
FCST CONCERN THIS AFTN IS CONVECTION AND SVR POTENTIAL.                         
WV IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SE MANITOBA DRIFTING TOWARD NWRN             
MN. WARM CONVEYOR PCPN BAND EXTENDING FROM N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU              
THE WRN U.P. INTO WI HAS BEEN SLOWLY EDGING E THIS MORNING.                     
RECENTLY...THIS PCPN HAS SHOWN A NOTICEABLE DIMINISHING TREND.                  
EXPECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OF THIS BAND DURING AFTN HEATING             
AND BEHIND IT WHERE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT.                                    
ETA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR T/TD OF 76/63F YIELD CAPE               
VALUES NEAR 2K J/KG. FORTUNATELY DEEP LAYER (0-6KM) SHEAR IS ONLY               
10-20KT...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...WET                
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 9-10KFT WILL MAKE SVR HAIL A THREAT...AND                  
FAVORABLE DECREASE OF THETA-E FROM SFC TO MIDLEVELS (NEAR OR                    
EXCEEDING 20K) WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. AREAS              
OVER THE CNTRL FCST AREA WHERE LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE BREEZE INTERSECTS             
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM WRN U.P. SHRA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.                   
ALTHOUGH ONGOING SHRA OVER WRN U.P. ARE DIMINISHING...NEW                       
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE OFF SOON WHERE CLOUDS ARE THIN.                         
GOING FCST IS GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE            
PLANNED IN UPDATE.                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
912 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO                 
YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT THE RUC DOES INDICATE SOME WEAK MOISTURE                
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS                      
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW MORE CU ACROSS THIS AREA. THE                
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALSO SEE A FEW MORE CU              
POPPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA               
WILL SEE A LOT OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER             
80S.                                                                            
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 850 MB                 
DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGHS SHIFTS EAST OF THE             
AREA. GFS AND ETA BOTH SUGGESTING MINOR QPF FOR WESTERN SECTIONS BY             
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. UPPER LOW STILL WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE                
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...SO NO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES TO TRIGGER                  
CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG A MESOSCALE               
BOUNDARY. RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING LAKE BREEZE                     
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY COULD SET UP BY LATE IN THE DAY. LOW CHANCE                
POPS LOOK REASONABLE WEST OF ROCHESTER WITH CAP STRENGTH WEAKENING              
AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.                             
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD              
WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE AREA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MOIST               
LOW LEVELS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES. UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY                     
STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HARD AT THIS                
TIME TO PIN DOWN WHICH DAY WILL HAVE MORE CONVECTION THAN THE NEXT              
AS SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE AROUND LOW...BUT ALSO SEVERAL PERIODS OF                
"DRY SLOTTING" WILL ALSO OCCUR.                                                 
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT                
WEEK AS WELL. MRF SUGGESTING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVER            
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT.               
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
TJP/TMA                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
1023 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                     
RUC AND ETA MODELS SHOWING SOME MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHEAST              
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ALONG WITH AN INVERTED TROF COULD KICK OFF                
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND                   
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.                                                 
LI VALUES ARE AROUND -1.5 OVER EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND IF WE START                
GETTING SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THEY COULD PRODUCE SOME STORMS.               
UPDATED THE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND ALSO A FEW MORE CLOUDS                
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
FCSTID =  66                                                                    
PIT   83  63  82  64 /  10  10  40  50                                          
HLG   83  63  81  64 /  10  10  40  50                                          
MGW   83  63  81  64 /  10  10  40  50                                          
ZZV   84  63  82  64 /  10  20  40  50                                          
PHD   84  63  82  64 /  10  20  40  50                                          
FKL   80  61  80  61 /  10  10  30  50                                          
DUJ   80  61  80  61 /  10  10  30  50                                          
LBE   83  63  81  64 /  10  10  40  50                                          
BTP   80  61  80  61 /  10  10  30  50                                          
IDI   83  63  81  64 /  10  10  40  50                                          
ODM   80  60  79  62 /  10  10  30  50                                          
.PBZ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
240 PM PDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING               
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON. RUC                     
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THIS AREA AS HAVING THE STRONGEST SURFACE                   
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT               
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH MINIMAL                      
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH. THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO                  
BE A LOW PRECIP EVENT. THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS                     
FROM DESERT ROCK SHOWS THE INVERTED-V PROFILE. MODELS SOUNDING OVER             
THE KERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ALSO SHOW A SIMILAR            
PROFILE. YET...WIND HAS NOT BE A BIG FACTOR TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL               
CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF THIS BEING A LOW QPF EVENT WITH              
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RUC80                   
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE REX BLOCK AXIS OVER CALIFORNIA WITH A            
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE DISTRICT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE              
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOUR...WILL EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS             
EVENING.                                                                        
THIS MORNING SHORT TERM MODEL PRODUCTION SHOWS THE BEST CONVECTIVE              
POTENTIAL OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA...KERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN SAN              
JOAQUIN VALLEY. WHILE SOME INSTABILITY WAS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL               
SAN JOAQUIN THIS MORNING...MODELS ADVECT MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE               
CENTRAL SJV FROM THE NORTH. THIS ADVECTION WILL MINIMIZE ANY                    
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...YET WILL NOT RULE OUT ANY                    
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DRIFTING TOWARDS MERCED COUNTY. MODELS SEEM A                
BIT TO AGGRESSIVE AT TERMINATING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO                
THURSDAY. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN...WILL                   
EXPECT ADDITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE DISTRICT              
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL BACK OFF THE MODELS ATTEMPT              
TO INTRODUCE A DRY WEDGE OF AIR IN FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. WILL             
EXPECT A REPEAT OF TODAY EVENTS ON THURSDAY AND SLOW THE DRYING                 
MORE TOWARDS FRIDAY. MODELS ARE STARTING TO THE UPPER LOW LIFTING               
NORTH ON FRIDAY AND ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. AT              
WHICH TIME...WILL EXPECT THE PRECIP TO RETREAT BACK INTO THE                    
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT TREND IS TO SLOWING DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO                
THE EXTENDED. THE FLOW DOESN/T TRULY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY UNTIL WELL            
INTO THE EXTENDED...AT WHICH TIME MUCH OF THE DISTRICT BEGINS TO                
DRY OUT.                                                                        
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM              
RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY. DRIER                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE AREA AS THE                    
MID/UPPER HIGH CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT               
BASIN AREA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL               
CALIFORNIA. FOR SUNDAY...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA               
CREST IS EXPECTED. BY MONDAY A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD                  
APPROACH THE NORTHWEST US COAST. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE                     
DEEPENING THE TROUGH AND BRINGING IT ASHORE BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE              
ECMWF LAGS FAR BEHIND. FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE TWO                    
SOLUTIONS. STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD IS A GOOD                   
BET...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT            
READINGS AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.                
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MOLINA/BAGNALL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
930 AM PDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
MONSOON WELL IN PLACE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE            
THROUGH THE CWFA. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT WITH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS MOVING              
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF. PRECIP VALUES REMAIN LOW...EVEN WITH A               
MORE TROPICAL AIRMASS STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA...AS MOST                      
REPORTING STATIONS CAME IN WITH READING OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN              
INCH. ONE FACTOR BEING THAT THE AIRMASS COLUMN REMAINS WARM TODAY...            
AND NOT ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVELS TO GET WELL SATURATED. THIS                   
MORNINGS AND YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS SOUNDING FROM DESERT ROCK AND                 
EDWARDS AFB...UPSTREAM...SHOWED AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH A WEAK               
LOWER LEVEL WIND PROFILE. THEREFORE...DOWNBURST POTENTIAL A BIGGER              
FACTOR THAN HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE BIGGER                    
PICTURE...WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE HIGH OVER LOW...             
REX BLOCK PATTERN...WITH A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE DISTRICT.              
RUC DID PICK UP ON A VORT MAX...IN-PHASE WITH THE SATELLITE                     
ENHANCEMENT...THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWFA LAST NIGHT. THIS PIECE OF             
ENERGY ALLOWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND               
IS NOW PUSHING OFFSHORE. WILL EXPECT A LITTLE RELIEF THIS MORNING AS            
THE NEXT VORT MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY 4:00 PM TODAY. NO UPDATED              
NEEDED AT THIS TIME AS SITUATION HANDLED WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST             
PACKAGE.                                                                        
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
120 PM EST WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES AND TIMING OF PRECIP.            
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH OF MN             
AND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS THE TN                 
VALLEY AND OVER TO OK. KLOT RADAR SHOWING A FEW SH/TSRA OVER                    
NORTHERN IL/SOUTHERN WI IN AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY WHERE CAPES              
ARE OVER 1200J/KG AND LI'S ARE AROUND -2 WHILE AIRMASS OVER OUR CWA             
REMAINS QUITE STABLE. 15Z RUC INDICATES LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION             
WITH THE INSTABILITY TO OUR WEST SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION             
MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.                                      
CLOSED UPPER LOW STACKED ABOVE SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DO               
VERY LITTLE OVER NEXT 48HRS...SLIDING SLOWLY SE INTO ARROWHEAD OF               
MN. FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND              
NUDGE UP TOWARD OH VALLEY ON THU. THIS WILL HAVE OUR AREA CAUGHT A              
LITTLE BIT BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON THU. MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOICATED WITH            
FRONTAL WAVE WILL TRY TO WORK INTO SE CWA WHILE GOOD AXIS OF                    
INSTABILITY FORMS TO OUR WEST OVER IL BY THU AFTERNOON. WILL BACK               
OFF SLIGHTY WITH PRECIP CHANCES BY KEEPING THU AM DRY BUT WILL                  
CONTINUE 30 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SYSTEMS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH AND               
AIRMASS DOES DE-STABLIZE WITH CAPES GETTING TO AROUND 1500J/KG AND              
LI'S OF -2. WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE INTO THU EVENING BUT KEEP                
OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL FOLLOW ON FRI AND            
SAT AS SFC LOW DROPS DOWN INTO GREAT LAKES REGION AND STALLS FRONT              
OUT OVER OUR AREA. NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT TO CURRENT TEMP FCST.                    
GUIDANCE NUMBERS CLOSE AND REASONABLE AS TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR OR              
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                       
GFS INDICATING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS                 
UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW DRIFT AROUND THE GREAT LAKES...THOUGH                 
MOISTURE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AS NARROW EXTENSION OF BERMUDA HIGH              
REACHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. GEM SHOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO                  
SUN/MON...BUT THEN MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE                     
NORTHEAST TUES/WED.                                                             
GFS GENERALLY HAS DRY NIGHTS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT            
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER WITH CURRENT DRY FORECAST AND SOME            
UNCERTAINTY IN THE OUTER PERIODS...WILL RESTRICT CHANCE OF RAIN TO              
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS AND BETTER MODEL                  
AGREEMENT.                                                                      
.IWX...                                                                         
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAL/TAR                                                                         
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                     
LATEST SAT PICS SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS E-W               
ORIENTED SFC RIDGE DOMINATING THE WX ACROSS MOST OF ILN FA. WEAK                
BDRY LYR TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING NE INTO WV EXPECTED TO PIVIT                
SLOWLY NW DURING THE DAY. EXPECT AT MOST ISOLATED CONVECTION TO                 
DEVELOP WITHIN THIS TROUGH AXIS LATER TDY. WITH OVERALL FORCING                 
RATHER NEGLIGABLE IN OUR AREA...FEEL CONVECTIVE TEMP WILL NEED TO BE            
MET FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEST LOCATION IN OUR AREA FOR THIS WILL BE             
EXTREME SE PORTION OF ILN FA. SO THE 10 POPS IN THE CURRENT GRIDS               
ARE FINE. LATEST 12Z ETA NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE EARLIER RUC WITH             
HOLDING DOWN THE NW PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP ANY            
CONVECTION ESE OF ILN FA TDY.                                                   
NO ZONE UPDATES AT THIS TIME.                                                   
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
JTD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
333 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003                                                      
MAIN EMPHASIS OF THIS FORECAST WAS PLACED IN THE SHORT TERM...                  
TONIGHTS CONVECTIVE THREAT AND EVOLUTION INTO THURSDAY NIGHTS                   
FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                                                
CURRENT SURFACE PATTERN IS FAIRLY COMPLEX AND IS NOT STRONG                     
IN ITS FORCING. A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BAND IS LOCATED                      
ALONG THE TROUGH BOUNDARY WHICH LIES FROM KMDZ-KDEH AT 20Z.                     
WITH CAPES NEAR 2-3000 J/KG THE ATMOSPHERE IS READY TO                          
CONVECT. THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ARE SOMEWHAT SUBSIDENT WHICH IS                   
NOT THE GREATEST SUPPORT FOR TSRA.  HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH                     
ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE JETSTREAM...VERTICAL MOTION IS A                    
BIT MORE ENHANCED /NRN WI/.  SPC HAS ISSUED A WATCH FOR THIS                    
AREA THORUGH 8PM.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES PER RUC INDICATE                     
INCREASING TRENDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT STILL BELOW                    
SUPERCELL MODES.                                                                
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ETA HAD TROUBLES WITH THE MORNING VORTICITY                
DETAILS AND RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUT BOTH COME TO A SIMILAR             
SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD BY 12+HOURS. TONIGHT THE INSTABILITY                
AND BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN AND CHANCES OF TSRA WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH             
THE EVENING. THE TROUGH BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATE            
TONIGHT OR WASH OUT.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MAIN SURFACE LOW               
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER SRN CANADA SHIFTS SOUTH. THERE IS AN             
ISOLATED CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER /HAIL OR WIND/...MAINLY OVER NRN              
WI. WILL HAVE SCT TSRA WORDING ELSEWHERE ON AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY.           
MODELS DEPICT THE CURRENT SURFACE FRONT NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG TO TAKE A            
HARD SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE              
WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER              
MN THURSDAY.  BOTH MODELS AGREE ON WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION            
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. OVERALL THERE IS WEAK                        
FORCING AND JUST INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY SO HAVE ELECTED TO WARM                
THE HIGHS WITH FEWER CLOUDS. ALSO REDUCED THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS                 
LITTLE FORCING IS APPARENT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION               
ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY BUT THE MAIN SHOW WOULD BE THURSDAY             
NIGHT. QG FORCING IS DEEPER AND MODERATE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE                
TRANSPORT INDICATED IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS IOWA AS WELL. THIS IS           
CONVERGENT INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. SBCAPE SHOULD RESPOND TOO           
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 2-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA FOR EARLY             
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS               
FRONT WHICH LOOKS FINE. HOWEVER...WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND             
30 KTS /0-6 BULK SHEAR/...SO SUPERCELLS WILL NOT BE AROUND. HAVE                
INCREASED THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO 50 PERCENT AREAWIDE. THE FRONT WILL             
INTO WI BY EARLY FRIDAY AND EXIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO RAIN CHANCES               
WHERE TIMED IN THIS MANNER. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN                     
MEASURABLE RAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN                 
INFLUENCE THE AREA FROM SATURDAY ON.                                            
EXTENDED...FROM SATURDAY TO WED THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES            
AND THESE RUNS //12Z/29 ECMWF AND 00Z GFS// ARE SLOWER ON MOVING IT             
EAST AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE OVER                      
SOUTHERN CANADA IS A VISION OF THINGS TO COME FROM THIS SYSTEM.                 
THUS...DETAILS ARE HARD TO COME BY IN THIS SCENARIO AND ARENT                   
PRUDENT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA/SHRA ARE THE BEST BET WITH LESS             
CLOUDS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE           
LOWERED THE HIGHS ABOUT 5F SAT/SUN WITH POOL OF COLDEST AIR /11-12C             
AT 850MB/ OVER THE AREA. HAVE TRIED TO LEAVE WED WITHOUT A CHANCE OF            
RAIN AS LOW SHIFTS EAST.                                                        
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wi