EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
330 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
...MELBOURNE BREAKS RECORD FOR ALL TIME WETTEST DECEMBER...                     
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS                  
FILTERING IN. COLD ADVECTION HAS BEGUN AND ALL SECTIONS WILL DROP               
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S TONIGHT. BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP...PREVENTING            
TEMPS FROM FALLING TO THEIR DEWPOINTS. SO FROST/FREEZING NOT A                  
CONCERN TONIGHT. BUT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TOMORROW NIGHT               
MAY PRODUCE FROST ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND MAY FLIRT WITH                   
FREEZING IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE...                   
INTERIOR VOLUSIA. WILL UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES ALL                   
LOCATIONS SAT NIGHT. MAX TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S SAT WITH              
MODERATING TREND STARTING SUN. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH MON...THOUGH            
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SUN                 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST FILTER THE SUNSHINE AND                 
POSSIBLY OBSCURE IT.                                                            
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP                 
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST MON NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE             
OHIO RIVER WED MORNING (997 MB). THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING                     
SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FL GULF COAST TUE MORNING               
REACHING SAVANNAH AS A CLOSED 1009 MB LOW TUE AFTN. THE PREVIOUS 00Z            
RUN WAS A BIT LATER (AND FARTHER NORTH) DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW             
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. IF THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH                   
VERIFIES...RAIN CHANCES MAY BE NEEDED MON NIGHT AND TUE MAY BE THE              
STORMY DAY. FOR NOW...WILL PUSH UP TIMING OF STORMS FROM TUE NIGHT              
TO TUE...WITH CLEARING OCCURRING WED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STILL                 
EXPECT RAIN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WED BUT WILL REMOVE THUNDER              
IN ORDER TO EMPHASIZE STORMS TUE WHEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE                   
HIGHER.                                                                         
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH H85 FREEZING LINE                    
REACHING NORTH FL FRI MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS IN OUR              
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.                                                     
MARINE...COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY PUSHING AWAY OVER THE OFFSHORE                   
WATERS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...BUT AS SFC             
HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN             
TO SLACKEN OVERNIGHT. SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER N FL SAT BRINGING LIGHT              
WINDS AND DIMINISHING SEAS SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY             
NIGHT. GRADIENT PICKS BACK UP MON NIGHT/TUE AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW             
PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE              
WATERS WEDNESDAY.                                                               
FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR CURRENTLY ADVECTING INTO THE STATE WITH A                
VENGENCE BEHIND THE FROPA...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KTLH REVEALED 0.7"              
PW VALUES...WHILE UPSTREAM THE SOUNDINGS AT NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE                
CHARLES MEASURE PW VALUES ~0.3".  LATEST RUC ANAYSIS REVEALS A LARGE            
POCKET OF EXTREMELY DRY AIR OVER THE NRN GOMEX ADVECTING SE ON A                
DEEP LYR NW FLOW....WITH THE CRUX OF THE DRY AIR GUNNING FOR THE NRN            
PENINSULA.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE H100-H50 FLOW...THIS DRY AMS              
SHOULD BE OVER THE STATE BY DAYBREAK SAT.                                       
SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PW VALUES BLO 0.3" ACROSS             
THE NW HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH AVN/ETA MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING               
SFC DEWPOINTS ~25F DEG.  WHILE THE SFC WINDS SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER              
THAN TODAY WITH A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION...LOW RH             
DURATIONS SHOULD BE MET QUITE EASILY.  WILL UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG               
WARNING OVER ALL INTERIOR COUNTIES. DEVELOPING NERLY FLOW SHOULD                
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M40S OVER THE COASTAL CWA S OF THE                      
CAPE...BUT INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DYR AMS               
WILL PASS OVER THE NRN CWA. AS SUCH...WILL POST A WATCH FOR COASTAL             
VOLUSIA AND NRN BREVARD.                                                        
THANKS FOR COORD TBW.                                                           
NOTE: MLB AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED 8.30" SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS BREAKS             
THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR DECEMBER RAINFALL OF 7.89" IN 1940. AND MORE            
RAIN IS ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK...                                                 
PRELIM...                                                                       
DAB UU 043/061 036/070 049 0000                                                 
MCO UU 044/065 042/072 051 0000                                                 
MLB UU 045/064 044/070 055 0000                                                 
.MLB...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                     
    ...RED FLAG WARNING SAT AFTN FOR LAKE...INLAND VOLUSIA...                   
       SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.                     
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SAT AFTN COASTAL VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN                 
       BREVARD COUNTIES...                                                      
PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY                                                           
AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW                                                          
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR                                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS                                                
NEXT SURGE OF COLDER UNSTABLE AIR RUSHING ACROSS NRN ILL AND WILL               
REACH LM SHORE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS GUSTING A LITTLE STRONGER           
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...UPPER 20S WHILE DIRECTION SHOULD STABILIZE                
AROUND 26DEG PLUS OR MINUS. AREA OF -SN ON RADAR NOT REACHING THE               
GROUND EVERYWHERE BUT ISOLD PERIODS OR LWR CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 15-20            
AND VSBY AROUND 4MI ARE PSBL FOR BRIEF TIME. LITTLE CHG SEEN NEXT               
24HRS OR SO WITH 25-40 CLOUD DECK AND THREAT OF LIGHT -SN IN BROAD              
CYCLONIC FLOW. PERHAPS MORE NORTH OF WEST COMPONENT TO WINDS BY                 
SAT.  KL                                                                        
UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION                                                       
RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY             
REACHING THE GROUND. ACARS SHOWS INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT WITH DRY                  
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP RETURNS AS               
700MB VORT ADV WORKS IN FROM THE WNW PER RUC. HARD TO FIND MANY                 
SURFACE OBS WITH LIGHT SNOW...AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVAPORATING               
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE              
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO                  
MOISTEN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.             
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH 700MB NVA LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH WITH 30 KNTS JUST BELOW                     
INVERSION AND DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER ACARS.                    
CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...HENCE NO CHANGES.                           
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/CMS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS                                                
NEXT SURGE OF COLDER UNSTABLE AIR RUSHING ACROSS NRN ILL AND WILL               
REACH LM SHORE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. SFC WINDS GUSTING A LITTLE STRONGER           
BEHIND THIS FEATURE...UPPER 20S WHILE DIRECTION SHOULD STABILIZE                
AROUND 26DEG PLUS OR MINUS. AREA OF -SN ON RADAR NOT REACHING THE               
GROUND EVERYWHERE BUT ISOLD PERIODS OR LWR CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 15-20            
AND VSBY AROUND 4MI ARE PSBL FOR BRIEF TIME. LITTLE CHG SEEN NEXT               
24HRS OR SO WITH 25-40 CLOUD DECK AND THREAT OF LIGHT -SN IN BROAD              
CYCLONIC FLOW. PERHAPS MORE NORTH OF WEST COMPONENT TO WINDS BY                 
SAT.  KL                                                                        
UPDATED PUBLIC DISCUSSION                                                       
RADAR RETURNS THIS MORNING LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY             
REACHING THE GROUND. ACARS SHOWS INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT WITH DRY                  
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP RETURNS AS               
700MB VORT ADV WORKS IN FROM THE WNW PER RUC. HARD TO FIND MANY                 
SURFACE OBS WITH LIGHT SNOW...AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVAPORATING               
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE              
IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO                  
MOISTEN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.             
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH 700MB NVA LATER THIS               
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 MPH WITH 30 KNTS JUST BELOW                     
INVERSION AND DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER ACARS.                    
CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS WELL...HENCE NO CHANGES.                           
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/CMS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1043 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                     
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. 15Z RUC AND 12Z            
MESOETA RUNS SHOW 30 TO 50 KT WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INDUCING LEE                 
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WINDS OVER THE                
WESTERN ZONES WILL THUS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND                
INTO THE EVENING. MEANWHILE BUMPED UP WINDS IN EASTERN ZONES TO 10              
TO 20 MPH WHERE DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS. DELAYED WIND SHIFT            
TONIGHT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE.                           
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1015 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                     
.UPDATED...WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZNS 15>17-31-11-32.           
METAR/SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF        
BANGOR TO CALIAS...BUT 28-32 DEGREES NORTH OF THAT LINE IN THOSE ZONES.         
THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON          
WILL HINDER TRAVEL IN CENTRAL MAINE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE              
RUC INDICATES SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO BRING IN WARMER MARITIME     
AIR. IN NORTHERN MAINE...NUDGED UP ICE ACCUMULATIONS A BIT...WITH WET-BULB      
TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S THERE AND TEMPERATURES SLOW        
TO RISE DOWNEAST.                                                               
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE STATE AFTER        
MIDNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY    
AND RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION         
TONIGHT...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOOK FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON            
SATURDAY WITH FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.                                
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO DAY PACKAGE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN MAINE THIS      
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS THE STATE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AFTER          
MIDNIGHT. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE        
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN MAINE TODAY WITH THE        
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TONIGHT. MODELS SPITTING OUT AROUND .75 OVER NORTHERN          
SECTIONS AND OVER AN INCH ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS.                             
NOW THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ICE WILL NORTHERN MAINE GET. 00Z KCAR          
SOUNDING INDICATES WARM AIR ALREADY ALOFT STARTING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO    
7000 FT. PRECIP SHOULD START JUST BEFORE NOONTIME WITH RAIN SOUTH OF            
HOULTON-GREENVILLE LINE AND FREEZING RAIN ABOVE THAT. PRECIP WILL BE VERY       
LIGHT ON THE ONSET SO EXPECT JUST MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.    
FORECASTED SOUNDING SHOW LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z      
WHEN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY WARM RAIN DROPS      
SO ANY AREAS NOT ABOVE FREEZING WILL NOT NOT SEE MUCH ICING THIS EVENING.       
ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE ST JOHN VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR ALWAYS SLOW TO SCOUR    
OUT BUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE SHOULD ALSO BE    
RAIN. WITHOUT A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...COLD AIR WILL FINALLY       
GIVE WAY LATE TODAY. HAVE DECIDED ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF       
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM A COATING TO A QUARTER OF      
AN INCH AS YOU GO NORTH TO SOUTH.                                               
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...RAIN MAY BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW        
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BEFORE ENDING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. DRY        
SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS    
DOWNEAST SECTIONS AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. UPPER         
LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION           
LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT PRODUCING FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW           
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.                                               
A QUICK MOVING TROUGH MOVING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY       
WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE          
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY TO EJECT EASTWARD ON        
MONDAY AND AS TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS STATEWIDE WITH       
BEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.                                          
UNTIL TONIGHT MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER          
GULF STATES ON XMAS EVE AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLC STATES XMAS DAY. BUT     
NOW ECMWF...GEM...AND GFS MOVING LOW THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE BY EARLY         
THURSDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW FOR WED BUT IF TREND CONTINUES       
WITH NEXT RUN...MAY NEED TO THINK ABOUT SNOWSTORM FOR XMAS DAY.                 
COASTAL WATERS...NORTHERN PART OF LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF FRONT WILL        
NOSE INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE TODAY. 925MB WINDS FORECASTED AT 56 KTS       
AND OUR LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS TO MIX DOWN SO WILL            
CONTINUE WITH GALE FOR LATE TODAY. NOT AS IMPRESS WITH GALES FOR SATURDAY AS    
COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL KEEP ONGOING FORECAST          
GOING AT THIS TIME.                                                             
.CAR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TODAY...ZONES 1>6-10-11-       
       15>17-31-32.                                                             
       GALE WARNING MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.                        
APFFEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
958 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FIRST            
500MB VORT MAX IS LEAVING SE LOWER. MOST OF THE SNOW IN NE LOWER HAS            
TAPERED OFF TO FLURRIES OR DISSIPATED ALTOGETHER. LAKE ENHANCEMENT              
IN NW LOWER HAS KEPT THE SNOW GOING W OF I-75. THE PLACE WHERE THE              
SNOW HAS BEEN MOST PREVALENT IS IN THE CVX-MGN-PLN-SLH ZONE WHERE A             
SW SNOW BAND SET UP BRIEFLY.  WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO VEER WEST AS               
PER THE ETA AND RUC. WITH THE WINDS GOING MORE WEST, THE SW BANDS               
THAT HAD FORMED ARE BEING PUSHED INTO NW LOWER.                                 
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW AS A SECOND 500 MB                
VORT LOBE MOVES INTO N LOWER. EXPECT THAT THE FOCUS OF THE SNOW THEN            
WILL BE NORTH OF M-72 FOR THE MOST PART. SO HAVE LOWERED AMOUNTS IN             
THE MBL-CAD ZONE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES. I DID INCREASE THE SNOW AMOUNT IN            
MACKINAC COUNTY TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AS THE SW BECOMING W FLOW WILL                 
PROBABLY BRING ANOTHER INCH OVERNIGHT NEAR THE STRAITS AND AREAS                
JUST TO THE EAST. LEFT THE REST OF THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONE. THE REST             
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                                     
.APX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016-017-019.                      
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
910 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW DEEP UPR LO OVR NRN LK SUP...               
WITH TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE VORTEX. UPR LO SUPPORTS              
OCCLUDED SFC LO NR JAMES BAY...AND CWA IN MOIST CYC WNW FLOW ARND               
THIS SYS. LOCAL 00Z SDNGS SHOW AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST INTO THE             
MID TROP. COLDEST AIR HAS ROTATED ARND TO SRN FLANK OF OCCLUSION...             
WITH LOWEST H85 TEMPS (RANGING FM -8C TO -10C) FM INL THRU GRB TO               
APX. H85 TEMP HIER AT YPL...-4C...AS WARM AIR HAS WRAPPED ARND INTO             
N AND W QUADRANT OF OCCLUSION. THE STRONGEST SHRTWV ROTATING ARND               
THE UPR LO IS NR CYQT. ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE FEATURE IS MOVG THRU THE             
WCNTRL CWA AND WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A PATCH OF ENHANCED CLD VSBL ON IR            
SAT PIX. PASSAGE OF THIS ENHANCED CLD AND FVRBL WNWLY FLOW ALLOWED              
FOR A PD OF HEAVIER SN OVR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH CMX RRPTG              
SVRL HRS OF VSBY UNDER 1SM. BUT CALLS TO AREA SPOTTERS INDICATE ONLY            
AN INCH OR TWO OF SN FELL. VSBY HAS IMPROVED AT CMX NOW THAT SHRTWV             
HAS PASSED TO THE E...BUT A GUSTY WNW WND HAS ENVELOPED THE KEWEENAW.           
MAIN FCST CONCERN TNGT IS SN FCST COVG/AMT ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV NR            
CYQT AND POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON LK SUP.                                         
00Z RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON SHRTWV NR CYQT...BUT             
18Z ETA F6 LOOKS TO HAVE BETTER GRIP ON SHRTWV MOVG THRU THE CWA. SO            
USED A MIX OF FCST DATA FM THESE SOURCES. BOTH MODELS INDICATE                  
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVRNGT WITH WRAPPED ARND WARMER AIR AT H85             
MOVG IN FM THE NW WHILE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF SHRTWV ROTATE S OF THE              
CWA OVRNGT. ETA FCST SDNGS INDICATE LWRG INVRN BY MIDNGT OVR THE                
KEWEENAW PENINSULA...BUT WL GO WITH SLOWER RUC TIMING AS THIS MODEL             
DRAGS CYQT SHRTWV BY LATER (NOT UNTIL 08Z). BASED ON RUC TIMING OF              
SHRTWV... SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LK EFFECT SN WL OCCUR OVR THE KEWEENAW            
THRU 08Z. ALTHOUGH H85-LK DELTA T OF ARND 10C FOR H85 TEMP OF -8C IS            
MARGINAL FOR PURE LES...MOIST CYC FLOW AND SOME WEAK MID LVL UVV WL             
SUPPORT 1-2 INCHES OF SN/6 HRS PER LES CHART OVR FVRD AREAS FM NRN              
ONTONAGON COUNTY UP THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW. INCRSG W WND FCST                
WITH STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT WL BLOW THE SHSN FURTHER INLAND                
INTO BARAGA COUNTY AND THE HURON MTNS AND MAY REDUCE SN AMTS OVR THE            
KEWEENAW DESPITE SHARP H95 CNVGC FCST BY 18Z ETA. XPCT THE SN TO                
DIMINISH AFTR 09Z ONCE SHRTWV PASSES TO THE S. AREAS S OF THE                   
PORCUPINE MTNS TO THE HURON MTNS WL SEE ONLY PTCHY LGT SN/FLURRIES              
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV AS FCST H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF                
SHRTWV IS MINIMAL OR TOTALLY ABSENT DESPITE THE H5 PVA. FLOW REMAINS            
TOO W FOR SGNFT ONSHORE COMPONENT INTO ALGER/LUCE ZNS.                          
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH GALE WRNG OVR ERN 1/2 LK SUP UPON 930 PM                  
ISSUANCE AS 18Z ETA SHOWS H925 WNDS (WITHIN MIXED LYR) INCRSG TO 40             
KTS E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TOWARD 12Z. LOCAL WSETA MODEL RUN               
OFF 12Z DATA ALSO FCST THIS OCCURRENCE. ALTHOUGH OTHER MODELS LESS              
AGGRESSIVE AT INCRSG WND SPEEDS...OBSVD WNDS OVR THE ERN LK (APRCHG             
GALE FORCE AT STANNARD ROCK) ARE HIER NOW THAN FCST EVEN WITH A FLAT            
PRES GRADIENT RELATIVE TO WHAT IS UPSTREAM AND ALL ARE FCSTG OVRNGT             
AS CYQT SHRTWV ROTATES UNDERNEATH UPR LO.                                       
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                             
WE WILL CONTINUE TO STAY IN WRAPAROUND PORTION OF STORM FOR A WHILE.            
LITTLE IN WAY OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AS ETA SHOWING 850-500 MB                 
Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE CWA UNTIL SUN WHEN WEAK Q-VECTOR                   
CONVERGENCE MOVES THRU.                                                         
FOR SAT...ETA IS SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 850 MB ON              
THE I280-I285 SURFACES IN THE MORNING WITH SOME MOISTURE AROUND...SO            
WILL CONTINUE TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE LIFT                     
GRADUALLY WEAKENS...BUT RETURNS ON SUN AND MON.                                 
MESOETA SHOWING 850 TEMPS COLD ENOUGH BY 00Z SAT NIGHT OVER THE                 
KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO GET SIGNIFICANT LES CONTRIBUTION FROM THAT                
TIME ONWARD. BASICALLY...THE LAKE-850 DELTA-T GETS BELOW 13C AT THAT            
TIME AND THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE OVER THAT AREA THEN.            
THE ALGER AND LUCE COUNTY AREAS...THE WIND LOOKS TO STAY WEST IN                
DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD KEEP A BAND PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE. THIS              
BAND MAY COME ONSHORE ON OCCASION...BUT THE WIND DIRECTION OF WNW               
WOULD NOT ALLOW THE BAND TO GO TOO FAR INLAND. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS            
THAT THE MOST SNOW WILL BE IN THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND LESSER                 
AMOUNTS WEST OF THERE AND IN ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES. ALSO FEEL AT              
THIS POINT...SINCE THE WIND IS WNW...THE SNOW EVENT WILL LAST A LONG            
TIME...BUT THE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA              
MAY BE REACHED IN A FEW PLACES...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT WARNING                  
CRITERIA WILL OCCUR RIGHT NOW. WARNING CRITERIA WOULD OCCUR IF YOU              
TOOK THE WHOLE EVENT IN ACCOUNT...BUT INTENSITIES WILL NOT BE GREAT             
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO REACH WATCH OR WARNING CRITERIA DUE TO THE              
WIND DIRECTION. FOR TEMPS...DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH FROM GOING                  
FORECAST AND WENT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ALL MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES.               
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF/AVN/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL                  
PATTERN ON MON CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST                  
COAST...A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE DESERT SW...A BROAD               
AND FLAT 500 MB RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE            
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. PATTERN BY TUESDAY STARTS TO GO               
TOWARD A REX BLOCK SOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO              
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE 500 MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS ON TUE. UKMET IS ODD MODEL OUT WITH LOW OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES             
AT THAT TIME. FOR WED...UKMET AND ECMWF COME MORE IN LINE WITH                  
TAKING THE 500 MB LOW FURTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE               
AVN/MRF ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH MORE TOWARDS             
THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THU...ECMWF AND MRF AGREE WITH AGAIN A 500 MB              
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE                 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MRF MORE AMPLIFIED AND 500                     
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS                 
AVN/MRF SOLUTIONS START GETTING NOISY ON TUE. BASICALLY...WILL NOT              
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST FOR TEMPS OR WEATHER. WILL              
INTRODUCE CHC SNOW SHOWERS TUE AND WED IN LES BELTS AND REMOVE SNOW             
TUE ELSEWHERE AS FOCUS OF STORM LOOKS TO BE WELL SOUTH IN OHIO                  
VALLEY AND THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.            
FOR THU AND FRI...SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND SHOULD SHUT OFF LES MACHINE            
AND WILL GO DRY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.                                     
.MQT...GALE WRNG E 1/2 LK SUP.                                                  
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1115 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                     
ZONE CHANGES...WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCREASE SNOWFALL THIS                  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.                                                          
DRIZZLE TURNED TO ALL SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.               
THIS WAS HANDLED BY TWO UPDATES THIS MORNING AS THE DRIZZLE ENDED.              
THE PRIMARY FOCUS TO THIS MORNING FORECAST IS MORNING                           
ACCUMULATIONS...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE UP STREAM VORT MAX                 
ACROSS WISCONSIN.                                                               
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING HAS GENERALLY BEEN AN INCH OR LESS. ADDITIONAL            
SNOWS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO ANOTHER INCH OR SO.                  
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AROUND                
5KFT.  FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS HOWEVER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS             
FOR AN AFTERNOON INCREASE WILL BE MADE.                                         
THE PRIME CONCERN IS THIS EVENING.  A STRONG VORT MAX SHOWS UP WELL             
IN THE SATELLITE LOOPS ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THE 12Z RUC AND ETA BOTH              
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE AND SHOW IT DIVING TOWARD OR                 
SOUTH OF GRR THIS EVENING.  THE BEST QG CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL                
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD                
MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT (6Z).              
THIS COMBINED WITH EVEN MODEST LIFT SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWS.              
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCREASE SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND                     
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ZONES             
OUT BY 11:30 AM.                                                                
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
HIRSCH                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
930 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE SNOW AND TEMPS.                                  
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW IS                   
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SLOWLY DEEPENING. THERE ARE            
SVRL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE MAIN ONE MOVING             
THRU SRN MN ATTM. ACCORDING TO RADAR MOSAICS AND SFC OBS...THIS WAVE            
HAS PRODUCED WIDE 1-3SM SNOWS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN OVERNIGHT.                
THERE IS SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE UP THIS MORNING...WITH THE BEST               
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE KEWEENAW...AS W-SW CONVERGENT FLOW IS HELPING              
TO ENHANCE SNOW THERE. OTHERWISE...AREA REALLY UNDER WEAK NVA...BUT             
COLD AIR ALOFT AND STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW IS ENOUGH TO KEEP LIGHT                 
SNOWS GOING.                                                                    
CURRENT RUC SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER              
THE AREA TODAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW THRU THE ATMOSPHERE. ALTHOUGH               
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NVA FOR MOST OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...THE             
RUC SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE                 
NORTH SIDE OF THE UPR LOW WILL START TO INFLUENCE THE AREA LATE THIS            
AFTN AS IT ROTATES SOUTH. ALL OF THIS COMBINED WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL             
LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY...WITH THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER            
THE KEWEENAW WHERE CVRG W-SW SFC FLOW IS THE BEST (BEST FETCH FROM              
DLH THRU THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. (1-4 INCHES SEEM QUITE REASONABLE).               
WITH DEEP CLD CVR...TEMPS GENERALLY STEADY IN THE UPR 20S-LOWER 30S             
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. ONLY MAJOR CHANGE TO THE ZFP/GRIDS IS TO                 
INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY FOR THE ONTONAGON/SRN HOUGHTON GRP              
TODAY. LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA RUN SHOWS 1-5 INCHES OVER THAT AREA                
TODAY. HOWEVER...CLOSER EXAMINATION OF THAT RUN SHOWS WINDS A LITTLE            
MORE WLY THAN OBSERVED...WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT THE MODEL IS KEEPING             
THE DOMINANT BAND FROM DLH-APOSTLE IS-ONTONAGON...INSTEAD OF WHAT IS            
ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE BAND (DLH-APOSTLE IS-MOHAWK). DESPITE               
THIS...WINDS MAY VEER AROUND A LITTLE THIS AFTN AS WINDS OVER THE               
ARROWHEAD ARE W-NW. SO...WILL STILL INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS A LITTLE             
OVER THE ONT/SRN HOUGHTON GRP...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE              
WSETA SUGGESTS.                                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
MRD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
740 PM PST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN OREGON WAS STARTING TO FILL AS IT MOVED                  
SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS LOW AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY DIVING                     
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA              
AS A SPLIT TROUGH ON SATURDAY. PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER              
THE EAST PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRIER BUT                    
CONTINUED VERY COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FOR TONIGHT 88D COMPOSITE             
RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AND VERY MOIST             
AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THUS FAR SNOWFALL               
HAS ONLY BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST OF THE CREST WITH LEE SHADOWING            
CONTINUING FOR MOST OF THE LOWER VALLEYS. QUICK LOOK AT THE MESOETA             
AND RUC SHOWS THAT SNOWFALL WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE SIERRA FROM               
LAKE TAHOE AND ALPINE COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN PLUMAS AND                  
LASSEN COUNTIES. THE NGM TRIES TO SPREAD SNOW OVER A BIT. DUE TO                
SPLIT...THE DRIER SOLUTIONS ARE MORE REASONABLE KEEPING SIGNIFICANT             
PRECIPITATION TO THE CREST AND ONLY A LITTLE BEYOND. SNOW ADVISORY              
HANDLES THE MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WELL AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY                
CHANGES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW END WARNING LEVELS STILL                 
APPEARS TO BE LASSEN AND EASTERN PLUMAS COUNTIES ABOVE 5000 FEET.               
WILL TRIM CHANCE OF SNOW BACK A BIT TONIGHT FROM LOVELOCK SOUTHWARD             
TO FALLON AND HAWTHORNE AS THESE AREAS WILL BE FAR FROM ANY                     
DYNAMICS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY UNDER TROUGH AND COLD                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SATURDAY SHOULD BE A FEW                  
INCHES CONFINED MAINLY TO MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ALONG SIERRA. MINOR                 
UPDATE TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. HOHMANN                                               
.REV...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT CAZ071                      
       SNOW ADVISORY BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT CAZ071                             
       SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT CAZ072-NVZ002                                      
       SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 7000 FEET TONIGHT CAZ073.                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
845 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO PUBLIC GRIDS THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT         
TEMPS...COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE FCSTS...WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS 3 TO 5          
DEGREES AS MIXING SHOULD KEEP MINS UP OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CHANGES            
THIS EVENING WILL BE FOR THE MARINE FCST.                                       
MARINE: WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE AT THE OFFSHORE TOWERS...    
BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST...WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A LULL WITH WINDS MOSTLY          
AOB 20 KT. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING HEALTHY PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF         
4 MB/3 HOURS OVER INLAND ERN NC AND THESE SHOULD WORK OFFSHORE IN THE           
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS SURGING INTO THE SCA REALM. RUC INDICATES             
THIS TREND NICELY WITH WINDS BACK AOA 25 KT BY 03Z OR 04Z. WILL DROP SCA        
TO SCEC ON THE SOUNDS...WITH CONTINUED SCA ON THE CSTL WATERS.                  
.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADV S OF CURRITUCK BCH LGT TO SURF CITY.                     
FCSTID =  11                                                                    
MHX  41 60 35 62 /  00 00 00 00                                                 
EWN  41 60 34 62 /  00 00 00 00                                                 
HSE  48 56 40 57 /  00 00 00 00                                                 
PGV  43 59 37 61 /  00 00 00 00                                                 
$$                                                                              
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
945 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE MID            
AND UPPER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE.  DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK ON              
BROKEN OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT SHORTLY AS LOW               
LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES INTO A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. PLAN TO REMOVE POPS              
OVER WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AND DIMINISH IN THE            
FAR EAST.  WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE IN THE FAR EAST BY EARLY             
AFTERNOON AS MAIN TRIGGER FOR PRECIP GENERATION EXITS AREA.                     
TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY.  HAVE NOTED SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS TREND              
IN NORTHERN GA AND UPSTATE SC. LATEST RUC DEPICTS TEMPS COOLING                 
ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BY 4 PM. IN ADDITION...850MB               
ANALYSIS DEPICTS TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL NC AND EASTERN             
TN VALLEY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON IN               
MOST LOCALES.                                                                   
WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT GUSTS              
AROUND 30 MPH.                                                                  
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
WSS/BL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
330 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR DEPICTS BROAD UPR LVL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE UPR                   
MIDWEST SWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF...WITH CWFA UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.               
NOT MUCH OF A PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                     
DAYS...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM KEEPING THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER WELL            
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. MAIN CONCERNS OVR CWFA WILL BE WINDS TDY...AND             
TEMPS THRUT FCST PERIOD.                                                        
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 50-55KT 850MB WINDS OVR ERN HALF OF                   
CWFA...WITH SFC WINDS CONT TO GUST AOA 30KTS THIS AREA. TIGHT PRES              
GRADS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TDY. HOWEVER...MIXING WILL KEEP                 
WINDY CONDS GOING FOR MOST OF DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY                   
SUBSIDING. FAR ERN ZONES WILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LIKELY               
FALL JUST SHY. LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS FM YDY TO TDY WILL                  
RESULT IN SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS. LO CLDS OVR ND ATTM EXPECTED TO JUST              
SKIRT FAR NRN ZONES.                                                            
EXPECT CLDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI NITE INTO SAT AS UPR TROF                 
ROTATES SWD FROM CANADA INTO NRN PLAINS...DRAWING COLDER INTO                   
REGION. DYNAMICS A BEAR MINIMUM WITH TROF SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE                
THAN CLOUDS AND A FLURRY OR TWO...BUT NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN ZONES             
AT THIS TIME. NW FLOW CONTS THRU SUN AND LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS                 
EXPECTED FM SAT TO SUN.                                                         
EXTENDED...GFS SHOWS WEAK RIDGING RETURNING TO NRN PLAINS MON-THU               
FOR DRY CONDS. THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY YO-YO BETWEEN 520-530DAM              
MAJORITY OF PD. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE MOS MEMBERS DIFFER BY SOME 20-25F            
DEGREES FOR AFTN HIGHS ALMOST EACH DAY OF EXTENDED. CURRENT FCST OF             
NEAR CLIMO TEMPS APPEARS JUSTIFIED AT THIS TIME.                                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
845 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2002                                                      
CURRENT FIRST PERIOD FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...AS QUIET            
WEATHER NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS. IR IMAGERY INDICATING                
SOME CIRRUS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...AHEAD OF 100+ KT                  
SUBTROPICAL JET MAX APPROACHING WEST TEXAS. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY                 
CLEAR SKIES...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED INCREASE IN CIRRUS COVERAGE.              
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 21/00Z MESOETA AND RUC40 SUGGESTS            
THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS SURFACE                     
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN WEST TEXAS...IN RESPONSE TO                       
APPROACHING JET MAX. THIS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE             
MID AND UPPER 30S REGION-WIDE. THUS...NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED              
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
.FWD...NONE.                                                                    
65/DD                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
230 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD COVER/TEMPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
SNOW LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                   
UPPER AIR MAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING SHORT              
WAVE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO MOVING EAST AND SPREADING MID/UPPER LEVEL            
MOISTURE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH          
THE EVENING HOURS IN THE EASTERN ZONES AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON              
IN THE WEST. THINK MOISTURE IS LIMITED FOR PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH             
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE...DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING IN         
ZONES AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM            
YESTERDAYS HIGHS AS WINDS BACK TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION...HAVE                  
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES BASED             
ON LATEST 20KM RUC FROM FSL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN            
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN                
FWC/MAV/MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH LOWER TEENS IN THE WEST AND MID TO            
UPPER TEENS EAST.                                                               
SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY EAST WITH NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPING              
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES                
WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH MID               
AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS                  
SUNDAY NIGHT AGAIN RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.                         
MONDAY AND BEYOND...GFS SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF SOUTHWEST SYSTEM                  
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER APPEARS SOME ENERGY REMAINS OUT             
WEST WHILE PIECES OF ENERGY GET KICKED OUT INTO THE PLAINS. ECM                 
REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN AND SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FURTHER                 
NORTH COMPARED TO THE LATEST CANADIAN AND NOGAPS. MODEL CONSENSUS               
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE TRI-STATE                      
AREA...HOWEVER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF             
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES AND MAINLY SOUTH OF                   
INTERSTATE 70 IN THE KANSAS COUNTIES FOR LATE MONDAY AND INTO                   
TUESDAY.                                                                        
GFS BRINGS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON            
THURSDAY...WILL SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND DROP TEMPS                  
SLIGHTLY WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUE TIME                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
310 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPS AND WINDS FOR              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN                            
WYOMING/COLORADO PLAINS, WHICH IS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY UPSTREAM            
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  IR IMAGE SHOWING ENHANCEMENT IN MID LEVEL CLOUD              
DECK OVER COLORADO, WHICH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS              
MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE, 08Z ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN              
KGCK AND KTRB.  WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FEATURE IN EASTERN             
COLORADO ONLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT AS PRESSURE            
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS LATER THIS                
MORNING, WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE PRETTY GOOD BEHIND THE                  
SURFACE LOW.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER                    
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATER TODAY (ROUGHLY 18-21Z).  SUBSEQUENTLY, WINDS             
WILL INCREASE 20 TO 25 KTS.  20KM RUC2 SURFACE GUST PROG, AS                    
WELL AS MOMENTUM XFER OUTPUT FROM BUFKIT...SUGGEST GUSTS TO 35 KT               
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CWA.  BY               
00Z, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE STRONG NORTH WINDS               
WILL ENHANCE COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND HAVE ADJUSTED GOING HIGHS DOWN             
A COUPLE NOTCHES WITH A LITTLE BIT COLDER AIR AT 850MB AS WELL AS               
LINGERING MID CLOUDS.                                                           
FOR TONIGHT, WOULD EXPECT IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR PRONOUNCED                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAINING AT OR AROUND 10F            
AND SFC WINDS AT OR BELOW 5 KTS WITH CLEAR SKIES.  LOWS IN THE 12 TO            
16 RANGE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST LOCALES ACROSS SW KS.                          
ON SUNDAY, THE SOUTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND                  
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCING ALOFT OVER              
SW KS.  AT THE SAME TIME, AND EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS IN THE              
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS (REMNANT FROM LARGE               
UPPER VORTEX OVER GREAT LAKES)  WILL AID IN PUSHING ARCTIC                      
BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHWARD.  THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO                 
SYSTEMS, AND WOULD EXPECT A NEAR CARBON COPY DAY SUNDAY FOR TEMPS,              
BUT LACKING THE STRONG WINDS.  BY LATE SUNDAY, MID LEVEL CLOUD WILL             
IMPINGE ON SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE SOUTHWEST LOW CONTINUES TO PUMP              
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT NORTHEASTWARD.  A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP             
ACROSS SOUTHERN TX, WHICH WILL AID IN RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
NORTHWARD.  ETA MODEL IS FASTEST AT MOISTENING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.              
THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN EARLIER START TO WINTRY PCPN, BUT STILL BEYOND            
12Z MONDAY.  MORE ON THE FORECAST PROBLEM BEYOND 12Z MONDAY, BELOW.             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
FOR THE VERY NEAR TERM, THE DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATE SOME PROBLEMS              
WITH MODEL MASS FIELD INITIALIZATION OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. AIREPS              
AND ACARS FROM 125W TO 135W AND BETWEEN 30N AND 40N SHOW A JET CORE             
OF AROUND 150KTS WHICH IS STRONGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS. THIS WILL            
HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS CONCERNING THE SYSTEM WHICH THE MODELS HAVE             
BEEN ADVERTISING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR DAYS NOW. OF THE              
PRESENT MODEL RUNS, ONLY THE AVN APPEARS TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE JET             
STREAK IS STRONGER AND WILL THUS LEAN ON ITS SOLUTION FOR SYNOPTIC              
SCALE FEATURES WITH TIME. THIS MODEL DIGS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH                   
PACIFIC ENERGY INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA BY                
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING THE UPPER SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN               
HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY. IN SO DOING THE MODEL INSISTS THAT THE                 
UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL NORTHWARD                
INTO OKLAHOMA, WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH                    
CONSIDERABLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AM                  
INCLINED TO BELIEVE THAT THIS MODEL HAS A DECENT GRASP OF THE                   
ENERGETICS INVOLVED AS IT BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THROUGH IN              
PIECES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IN MY EXPERIENCE THIS IS ALMOST                  
ALWAYS THE CASE WITH THESE SOUTHERN BRANCH PACIFIC SYSTEMS.                     
WHAT TO DO ABOUT PRECIPITATION, THEN IS THE MAIN QUESTION? THE AVN              
CONTINUES ITS WET BIAS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOOKS OVERDONE ON                   
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER, THERE IS               
LITTLE DOUBT THAT DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SATURATE DOWN THROUGH THE                
COLUMN WITH TIME AND ALL THE MODELS DO THIS TO SOME DEGREE. THE COLD            
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SHOULD MOVE LITTLE                
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE             
OVERTAKES IT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON MONDAY. WILL LOOK FOR THE                   
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS LIQUID MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS DYNAMIC                   
COOLING SETS IN AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS WILL LOOK FOR            
IT TO TURN TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND FINALLY TO SOLID WHICH                 
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.                                     
GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE            
IS AVAILABLE ALONG THE UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES             
OF SNOW FROM THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER             
IS LIKELY BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS TUESDAY.                                         
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH PACIFIC ENERGY ARRIVES IN THE                 
SOUTHWEST CONUS WEDNESDAY AND EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.               
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT            
SNOW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH WAVE AND               
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT INTRODUCE POPS IN            
THIS PERIOD THOUGH DAY SHIFT TODAY MAY WANT TO THINK HARD ABOUT                 
THIS. WILL HOWEVER LOWER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SNOW COVER THROUGH THE             
END OF THE WEEK.                                                                
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE              
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.                                  
DDC   43  15  46  25 /   0   0   0   0                                          
GCK   43  12  45  23 /   0   0   0   0                                          
EHA   46  20  49  28 /   0   0   0   0                                          
LBL   47  17  48  25 /   0   0   0   0                                          
HYS   41  13  43  24 /   0   0   0   0                                          
P28   45  19  48  28 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.DDC...NONE.                                                                    
UMSCHEID/JOHNSON                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
330 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON. ONE              
VORT CENTER HAS CLEARED MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH A                 
WEAKER OVER WISCONSIN. BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH                
NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW NEAR                 
JAMES BAY...WITH A WEAKER WAVE ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.                    
DTX/ADJACENT RADARS SHOW MAIN AREA OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN            
GENERALLY ALONG/BETWEEN I-69 AND M-59.                                          
FIRST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS WITH SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMULATIONS WITH                
LAKE EFFECT CARRYING OVER INTO THE PERIOD. REFLECTIVITY RETURNS HAVE            
DIMINISHED FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE NOW IN SOUTHEAST                  
ONTARIO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHT DROPPING BELOW                
6KFT BY 06Z SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH DTX VWP STILL INDICATING RETURNS UP             
TO 10KFT...ONLY BEGINNING TO DROP OFF. 03Z RUC STILL INDICATES SOME             
WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE WISCONSIN                   
SHORTWAVE. BEHIND THAT WAVE...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL CRASH DOWN                 
BELOW 2KFT BY 00Z. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND DECENT            
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP ON RADAR WILL              
WEAKEN/GIVE WAY TO GENERAL DIVERGENCE. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO             
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...AND DIMINISH TO FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON.                
WITH DOWNWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITIES...TEND TOWARD GENERALLY AN                
INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW FOR THIS MORNING GIVEN 1-2 INCHES               
WHICH FELL OVERNIGHT.                                                           
SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS                  
TODAY...AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. DECENT LIFT AHEAD OF THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE CWA. ETA STILL DEPICTS A               
BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE FAR SOUTH AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. DECENT FRONTOGENESIS SLOPED INTO THE CWA...MAINLY FOCUSED             
AROUND 925MB ALONG THE MICHIGAN/OHIO BORDER BUT STILL PRESENT AT                
850MB AS FAR NORTH AS I-69. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW BEST AREA OF              
LIFT OVER OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION. ETA            
LOOKS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP AS FAR NORTH AS MICHIGAN...BUT MOISTURE MAY            
BE OVERDONE WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...MORE LIKE GFS FIELDS. WILL            
MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. ETA SOUNDINGS/                  
THICKNESS FIELDS WOULD POINT TOWARD MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION.                   
HOWEVER THE SOUNDING IS RATHER DRY...AND WET-BULB TEMPERATURES POINT            
MORE TOWARD SNOW. GFS HAS MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE                     
WAVE...AND LOW/MID LEVEL THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP AS SNOW.                   
COLD AIR RETURNS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE WAVE.            
INVERSION HEIGHTS LIFT NEAR 4KFT ON SUNDAY...AND PEAK NEAR 5/6KFT               
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH               
THE COLUMN SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES ON            
SUNDAY...AND ADD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER                    
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP WITH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE                       
MICHIGAN...SIMILAR TO TODAY AT LEAST IN LOCATION GENERALLY NORTH OF             
I-94. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE UPPER LOW...BRUSHING JUST             
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT              
OF COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO -14C. HOWEVER              
WINDS VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY...NOT AS FAVORABLE A FETCH FOR                    
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HOWEVER WITH DECENT FLOW /1000-850MB WINDS                  
25-30KTS/ SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE DISPLACE FARTHER INLAND. WILL KEEP A              
MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED SHOW SHOWERS               
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.                                                      
.DTX...GALE WARNING...TODAY AND TONIGHT...LAKE HURON.                           
BRAVENDER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
330 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS IS SNOW SHOWERS AS UPPER LOW SENDS PIECES OF ENERGY              
OVER THE REGION.                                                                
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND A COMBINATION OF THE RUC AND ETA                 
WERE USED.                                                                      
CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS                   
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION. RUC                
SHOWS SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH TODAY...AND WILL GO             
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT             
THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY                     
DROPPING TO 3-4 MILES. THE SHORTWAVES BECOME HARDER TO PICK OUT WITH            
TIME...SO WILL KEEP MID RANGE POPS GOING INTO SUNDAY. WATER VAPOR               
SHOWS STRONG CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY WITH ENHANCED CLOUD             
TOPS MOVING SOUTHWEST. SO FEEL GOOD ABOUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS                
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MOST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW AN                
INCH PER 12 HOUR PERIOD.                                                        
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT STILL IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO WILL                
GO A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY AND WILL FOLLOW SLIGHTLY WARMER             
ETAROS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GIVEN SOLID CLOUD COVER...AND ENOUGH WIND           
TO KEEP THINGS MIXED UP.                                                        
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                
SURFACE FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY...BUT 850MB FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES                
MORE NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FETCH STILL NOT IDEAL FOR              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME             
SNOW SHOWERS THEN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WITH SOME ACCUMULATION                  
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
328 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATL PIX SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO             
WESTERN PA AND NY NOW. ETA/AVN ARE A BIT FAST WITH THIS FEATURE...              
BUT RUC MODEL LOOKS GOOD AND BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BY               
LATE MORNING. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD LEAVE WI AND REACH                
CENTRAL NY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SNOW SHOWER                
ACTIVITY FROM THE HILLS OF WESTERN PA TO THE NY LAKE SHORES...AND               
BACK WITH THE WI SYSTEM. CLOSED SIT AND SPIN LOW WILL BE ANCHORED               
OVER QUEBEC...SO WE CAN EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRY AND SPOTTY                
MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT LEAST...               
ESPECIALLY AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF AND SFC WIND SHIFT MOVES THROUGH         
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                               
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY HANDLED FIRST WAVE...BUT I'M A LITTLE               
CONCERNED ABOUT STOPPING PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN INCREASE             
THE STRENGTH OF WAVE NUMBER 2 AS IT ZIPS THROUGH...SO AS IT CAPTURES            
LAKE MOISTURE I THINK IT WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATER            
TODAY. I'LL JUST EXPAND THE CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY            
FOR NY ZONES.                                                                   
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE IN THE UPR 30S TO PUSHING 40 SINCE WE             
ARE STARTING OUT RATHER MILD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY...            
AS BOTH ETA/AVN HINT AT DRYING OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE A FEW HOURS             
BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING COLD UNDER THE CLOUDS...             
HOWEVER THE MOS PICKS UP ON THE BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT.             
IT IS HARD TO GET CLOUDS OUT OF HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ANY                
BREAKS WILL CAUSE A TUMBLE. I'LL JUST NUDGE THE MINS UP A BIT AS A              
HEDGE BASED ON CURRENT MOS TRENDS AND MINIMAL SNOW COVER.                       
LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AS FLOW STAYS           
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY. TOMORROW'S TROF PASSAGE WILL SWING FLOW A BIT MORE        
TO THE WEST WHERE NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE SNOWS ON SUNDAY        
NIGHT. IF AN ERIE BAND GETS WELL ESTABLISHED LES MAY GET INTO STEUBEN           
CO...THE FINGER LAKES AND KNOCK AT SYRACUSE'S BACK DOOR. THE AIR                
GRADUALLY BECOMES COLDER...BUT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH          
FOR OPTIMAL LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIALS UNTIL A STRONGER POLAR FRONT COMES          
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FLOW THEN MAY GET DOWN INTO THE SYR-UCA                
CORRIDOR...BUT SHEAR MAY PROHIBIT THE BEST ORGANIZATION.                        
NOW CHRISTMAS...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A LOW PRESSURE            
EVENT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE DETAILS IN THE WASH           
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. YESTERDAY...WE UPPED THE ANTE IN THE FORECAST TO           
LIKELY SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TONIGHT'S 00Z AVN RUN OPENED THE UPPER            
SYSTEM A BIT AND WOBBLED THE SFC LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST...WHICH IS             
ACTUALLY A MOVE TOWARD WHAT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS SAID FOR DAYS. LOW            
OVER 40/70 BENCH 00Z/26. CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT. WE'VE LOST A LOT OF THE         
SE RIDGE AS THE PNA HAS COME MORE NEUTRAL...AND THERE IS NO BLOCKING            
HIGH EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERN STREAM IS STILL STRONG WITH                
NORTHERN BRANCH PHASING MINIMAL...SO THE LESSER DEVELOPMENT AND OUT TO          
SEA TRACK IS GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE. STILL...THE EAST TRACK HELPS TO           
KEEP COLD AIR IN HERE FOR SNOW AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WOULD          
GET THE SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY. FCST AREA IS LIKELY TO GET SOME              
SNOW...JUST PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS IT LOOKED LIKE EARLIER. PLENTY MORE          
GUIDANCE TO COME.                                                               
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG WITH                    
LINGERING SYNOPTIC --SN.                                                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WRN LAKES REMAIN                 
DOMINATED BY WNW FLOW FROM NRN STREAM CUTOFF MID/UPR LVL LO NEAR                
JAMES BAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHRTWS/VORTS ROTATE AROUND THIS                   
FEATURE. ONE SHRTWV LOCATED OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR HAS PRODUCED                   
EXPANDING AREA OF -SN INTO WRN UPR MI. NEXT SHRTWV OF NOTE LURKED               
JUST NW OF THE LO OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO. WRLY WINDS ACRS LK SUPERIOR             
ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -8C GIVING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO 11C ALSO                   
PROVIDED ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY/MOISTENING FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCED               
SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW WHERE VSBY HAD DROPPED TO NEAR 1SM.                      
MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL BUT DIFFERENCES IN                    
HANDLING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY               
LATE SUN WILL IMPACT LES POTENTIAL.                                             
TODAY...SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH EARLY WITH AREA OF -SN AND POSSIBILITY             
OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. AFT                          
12Z...DNVA/QDIV AND RESULTING SUBSIDENCE TAKE OVER LIMITING FURTHER             
-SN POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LVL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP                  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLURRIES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. DEPARTURE              
OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ETA FCST OF 800-600 DRYING ALONG WITH H8 TEMPS            
ONLY TO -6C...PER ETA/RUC SHOULD BRING DIMINISHING TREND WITH ONLY              
FLURRIES OVER WRN UPR MI BY THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
TONIGHT...ETA/GFS SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLDER             
AIR (H8 TEMPS TO NEAR -13C NW) TOWARD UPR MI AFT 06Z ALONG WITH                 
INCREASING 700-300 QDIV AHEAD OF NEXT SHRTWV SO THAT LES INTENSITY              
SHOULD PICK UP LATE WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE OVER NW UPR MI.                
00Z/06Z ETA SUGGESTS THAT LAKE AIDED TROFFING AND RESULTANT MAX 950             
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE FROM ERN CWA. HOWEVER...WRLY            
CBL FLOW COULD STILL BRUSH LOCATIONS FROM GRAND MARAIS EASTWARD.                
SUN INTO MON...MDL DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF                   
SHRTWVS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA INCREASE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO             
LES INTENSITY. 00Z ETA ESPECIALLY WAS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHRTWV               
SUN NIGHT AND STRENGTH OF ATTENDANT H8 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS TO               
NEAR -19C. GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN SHOWED BULK OF SHRTWV FARTHER EAST                
WITH H8 TEMPS CLOSER TO -15C BY 00Z/MON. ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN             
KEEPING FOCUS OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BTWN HOUGHTON AND ONTONAGON AND            
TO LOCATIONS ENE OF MUNISING. VEERING WIND TO 300-310 BY SUN NIGHT              
WOULD BE A BIT LESS FAVORABLE N OF KCMX WITH FETCH ACRS ISLE ROYALE.            
DESPITE MDL DIFFERENCES...PARAMETERS SUCH AS DELTA/T TO NEAR 18C                
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE TO 600 MB...SOME DEGREE OF SHRTWV/QG                   
SUPPORT AND LIMITED VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION...SUGGEST POTENTIAL             
FOR HEAVY SNOW OVER NW UPR MI WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A WATCH                
FROM SUN INTO MON MORNING. WITH LATER INLAND PENETRATION OF LES OVER            
THE ERN CWA...HAVE HELD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...FURTHER             
VEERING OF THE CBL FLOW WOULD BRING POSSIBILITY OF GREATER COVERAGE             
OF HEAVY LES TOWARD M-28.                                                       
.MQT...WINTER STORM WATCH SUN INTO MON MORNING MIZ002-003-084.                  
       GALE WRNG E 1/2 LK SUP.                                                  
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1035 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                     
ISSUING UPDATE TO ADD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO NRN ONEIDA CTY...REMOVE              
MORNING WORDING...BUMP TEMPS DOWN JUST A BIT...AND GO FROM OVC TO               
BKN MOST ZONES.                                                                 
CURRENTLY ERIE SNOW BAND EXISTING ON AN ~240 VECTOR...AND MOVING                
OVER LK ONTARIO IN VICINTIY OF KROC....WHERE THERE IS MORE OF A 260             
FLOW.  WHILE MAIN ONTARIO BAND CONTINUES WELL N OF CWA...WEAK...BUT             
CONSISTENT SENCONDARY BAND WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL SN TO NRN ONEIDA             
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL INCREASE POPS AND ADD                         
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
SERIES OF 500MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND CLOSED                    
LOW...SO CHC SHSN LOOKS GOOD FOR REST OF CWA TODAY.  TEMPS SEEM TO              
BE FAIRLY STABLE...AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THERMAL CHANGES                
EXPECTED TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RISE A COUPLE DEGREES OVER             
WHERE THEY ARE NOW.  NO OTHER CHANGES.   MJC                                    
----- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -----                                                 
COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATL PIX SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING INTO             
WESTERN PA AND NY NOW. ETA/AVN ARE A BIT FAST WITH THIS FEATURE...              
BUT RUC MODEL LOOKS GOOD AND BRINGS THE WAVE ACROSS THE REGION BY               
LATE MORNING. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD LEAVE WI AND REACH                
CENTRAL NY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR HAS SNOW SHOWER                
ACTIVITY FROM THE HILLS OF WESTERN PA TO THE NY LAKE SHORES...AND               
BACK WITH THE WI SYSTEM. CLOSED SIT AND SPIN LOW WILL BE ANCHORED               
OVER QUEBEC...SO WE CAN EXPECT A FEW ROUNDS OF FLURRY AND SPOTTY                
MEASURABLE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AT                        
LEAST...ESPECIALLY AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROF AND SFC WIND SHIFT               
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TODAY HANDLED FIRST WAVE...BUT I'M A LITTLE               
CONCERNED ABOUT STOPPING PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN INCREASE             
THE STRENGTH OF WAVE NUMBER 2 AS IT ZIPS THROUGH...SO AS IT CAPTURES            
LAKE MOISTURE I THINK IT WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS LATER            
TODAY. I'LL JUST EXPAND THE CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY            
FOR NY ZONES.                                                                   
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE IN THE UPR 30S TO PUSHING 40 SINCE WE             
ARE STARTING OUT RATHER MILD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY...            
AS BOTH ETA/AVN HINT AT DRYING OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE A FEW HOURS             
BEFORE DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING COLD UNDER THE CLOUDS...             
HOWEVER THE MOS PICKS UP ON THE BROKEN TO SCATTERED CLOUDS TONIGHT.             
IT IS HARD TO GET CLOUDS OUT OF HERE THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT ANY                
BREAKS WILL CAUSE A TUMBLE. I'LL JUST NUDGE THE MINS UP A BIT AS A              
HEDGE BASED ON CURRENT MOS TRENDS AND MINIMAL SNOW COVER.                       
LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH AS FLOW STAYS           
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY. TOMORROW'S TROF PASSAGE WILL SWING FLOW A BIT             
MORE TO THE WEST WHERE NORTHERN ONEIDA MAY GET INTO SOME LAKE SNOWS             
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IF AN ERIE BAND GETS WELL ESTABLISHED LES MAY GET              
INTO STEUBEN CO...THE FINGER LAKES AND KNOCK AT SYRACUSE'S BACK                 
DOOR. THE AIR GRADUALLY BECOMES COLDER...BUT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE               
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR OPTIMAL LAKE TEMP DIFFERENTIALS UNTIL A                  
STRONGER POLAR FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. FLOW THEN MAY               
GET DOWN INTO THE SYR-UCA CORRIDOR...BUT SHEAR MAY PROHIBIT THE BEST            
ORGANIZATION.                                                                   
NOW CHRISTMAS...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A LOW PRESSURE            
EVENT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH THE DETAILS IN THE WASH           
AS ONE WOULD EXPECT. YESTERDAY...WE UPPED THE ANTE IN THE FORECAST TO           
LIKELY SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TONIGHT'S 00Z AVN RUN OPENED THE UPPER            
SYSTEM A BIT AND WOBBLED THE SFC LOW AWAY FROM THE COAST...WHICH IS             
ACTUALLY A MOVE TOWARD WHAT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS SAID FOR DAYS. LOW            
OVER 40/70 BENCH 00Z/26. CANADIAN IN AGREEMENT. WE'VE LOST A LOT OF             
THE SE RIDGE AS THE PNA HAS COME MORE NEUTRAL...AND THERE IS NO                 
BLOCKING HIGH EXPECTED TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERN STREAM IS STILL STRONG            
WITH NORTHERN BRANCH PHASING MINIMAL...SO THE LESSER DEVELOPMENT AND            
OUT TO SEA TRACK IS GAINING SOME CONFIDENCE. STILL...THE EAST TRACK             
HELPS TO KEEP COLD AIR IN HERE FOR SNOW AND THE TRACK OF THE UPPER              
SYSTEM WOULD GET THE SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY. FCST AREA IS LIKELY             
TO GET SOME SNOW...JUST PERHAPS NOT AS MUCH AS IT LOOKED LIKE                   
EARLIER. PLENTY MORE GUIDANCE TO COME.                                          
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1005 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                     
SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO SLIP OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND AT 15Z MSAS              
HAD THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.                                           
SATELLITE H2O VAPOR LOOP SHOWING VORT CENTER SPINNING ACROSS WESTERN            
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING...A LITTLE NORTH OF SHAMROCK TEXAS. RUC40 BRINGS          
SHORT WAVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY 00Z WITH SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST        
OKLAHOMA. 12Z ETA HAS COLD FRONT ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT AND           
NEAR NASHVILLE AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. RH FIELD SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE BUT            
THE IDEAS THE SAME WITH AT LEAST SMALL POPS NEEDED FOR TONIGHT.                 
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                     
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
BOYD                                                                            
01                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
915 AM PST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
FIRST VISIBLE SATPIX OF THE DAY SHOW THE COMPACT UPPER LOW AND                  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. KMUX 88D INDICATES            
SOME WEAK RETURNS BEING GENERATED BY THIS LOW...HOWEVER SSMI RAIN               
RATE DEPICTIONS OVER THE OCEAN COME UP EMPTY...FURTHER VERIFYING THE            
LIGHT NATURE OF THIS PRECIPITATION. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS INLAND DURING            
THE DAY...WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA ACROSS THE DISTRICT. IN                  
FACT...KVBG AND KOAK 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI...AS             
DO RUC/MESOETA FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH            
BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDER WOULD BE FOR AREAS              
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE...SOME LIFT            
IS PRESENT LOCALLY...ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME SUNSHINE.               
THUS...WILL UPDATE SHORTLY TO INCLUDE WORDING IN THE SOUTHERN                   
ZONES.  ALSO...THINK COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LESS THAN            
THE CURRENT PACKAGE WORDING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS...SO WILL               
ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD IN SOME AREAS. MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ABOVE 4000                
FEET MAY LOCALLY PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO MORE OF SNOW DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON FROM THIS ACTIVITY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDS ARE                 
RUNNING POSITIVE OVER THOSE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THAT                 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP AT LEAST AS WARM AS YESTERDAY.                       
THUS...WILL ALSO INCREASE TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS BY AROUND A                   
CATEGORY FROM CURRENT PACKAGE.                                                  
BURGER                                                                          
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1045 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                     
WILL BE UPDATING ZONES FOR CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND WINDS.              
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA PROFILERS SHOWING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS             
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. RUC CATCHES THIS              
WELL...AND WILL UPDATE THAT AREA TO BREEZY. SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD             
COVER ALREADY DECREASING FROM THE WEST. BASED ON THAT AND LATEST                
RUC...WILL UPDATE TO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IN WESTERN HALF...AND                
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN EASTERN SECTIONS.                                      
BASED ON CLOUD COVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND LATEST                         
RUC/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES IN KANSAS AND                  
NEBRASKA COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA 3 TO 5 DEGREES.                              
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
200 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT               
WEEK. FIRST...WILL ADDRESS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. THEN                
TALK ABOUT A POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY                  
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
LATEST SATELLITE / RUC COMPOSITE OVERLAY SHOWS CLOUDS QUICKLY                   
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY STRONG AND                 
COMPACT VORT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STILL                  
NO PRECIPITATION DETECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. 12 UTC UPPER AIR                   
SHOWED VERY DRY AIR AT 850 AND 700MB OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION.             
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FA...BUT VALUES              
ABOVE 50 HAVE ADVECTED AS FAR NORTH AS EAST TEXAS. SO FOR TONIGHT...            
EXPECT LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MAINLY DUE TO THE SPEED              
OF THE SYSTEM. MAY BE A BIT BREEZY OVERNIGHT...AS LOW LEVEL JET                 
CRANKS UP TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. THINK BEST CHANCE...ALBEIT A LOW ONE...             
OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE VORT TRACK. THE TRACK               
IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS. WILL GO                  
CHC POPS NORTH AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. WE ARE NO LONGER IN A                   
GENERAL THUNDER RISK. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY                
THE SHARP UPPER TROF...WITH TOTAL TOTALS GREATER THAN 50. WOULD NOT             
RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IF SHRA GETS GOING...BUT AM NOT              
GOING TO MENTION FOR NOW...DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.                             
EXPECT QUIET WEATHER UNTIL LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE                  
NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA. OVERALL...EARLY NEXT                
WEEK...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A POLAR              
VORTEX OVER NORTH QUEBEC...AND STRONG JET STREAM FLOW FROM THE                  
BAJA PENINSULA...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. A SERIES OF UPPER                  
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST IN THE STRONG                      
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH IS LIKELY TO                   
AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY                     
BETTER INITIALIZED AVN. RECENT HISTORY HAS SHOWN THE AVN MORE                   
CORRECT IN THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION...AND                     
SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS                    
USUALLY THE CASE IN SW UPPER FLOW. SO...WILL INTRODUCE A CHC                    
POP FOR LATE MONDAY FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AS GOOD ISENTROPIC                  
LIFT IS FORECAST TO SET UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE               
POP FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...AS WE STAY ON THE                    
FENCE WITH REGARD TO CRITICAL THICKNESS...SOUNDINGS THERMAL                     
PROFILE. THE FIRST WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST TUESDAY...AND                  
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION. BY THEN...THE AIRMASS                  
IS FORECAST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.                                         
THE NEXT AND MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF           
SNOW...IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO               
TELL HOW THIS WILL ALL SHAKE DOWN. BUT PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE              
THAT THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL VORT...H8 LOW TRACK...POSSIBLE                    
STRATOSPHERIC WARMING AND STRONG QG FORCING COULD RESULT IN A                   
DECENT SNOW (CONSIDERING FORECAST MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 3 TO 4                 
ON I295K ARE SHOWN ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA PER THE AVN). AGAIN...WE             
WILL SEE. BUT SINCE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER                
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY...WILL ISSUE A WINTER              
STORM OUTLOOK.                                                                  
QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE             
REST OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF AND LATEST AVN AND MRF SHOW ANOTHER                 
SYSTEM MIGHT AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE           
OUR DRY FORECAST AND WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS TO COME IN. THE             
MRF IS NOT TOO HIP ON PRECIP WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM.                         
FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF FWC/MAV/MEX AND                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS.                                                      
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
NOLES                                                                           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
124 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE               
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. ALONG               
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER...OKLAHOMA MESONET SITES ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE                 
BEGUN TO EXPERIENCE WIND SPEEDS ABOVE THE THRESHOLD NORMALLY USED               
FOR A WIND ADVISORY. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS TRENDS                    
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON WHILE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD. WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A             
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.                               
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES OKZ021>023...                   
OKZ027...OKZ033>039...OKZ044>045.                                               
TX...WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES TXZ083>090.                     
JAMES                                                                           
--------------------------                                                      
958 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
12Z UA AND SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE MOSTLY CONFIRMED THE EXISTING                  
FORECAST FOR THE 1ST PERIOD. THAT IS A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL HELP             
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A               
SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THICK                
MID/UPPER CLOUD SHIELD FORMING ALONG THE KANSAS/OK BORDER REDUCING              
HEATING IN THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND WARM ADVECTION              
CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWER                  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH AND RAISED SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL              
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. OTHERWISE THE 1ST PERIOD FORECAST IS IN GOOD            
SHAPE.                                                                          
REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR NEXT MON/TUES...A QUICK LOOK AT THE                  
06Z-12Z AVN/ETA ALONG WITH THE 12Z ETA SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER               
AND MORE SOUTHWARD SCENARIO POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FOR AT LEAST MONDAY.            
STILL PREMATURE TO MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS POINT...BUT AT LEAST                
INITIALLY THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT POPS MAY BE REDUCED OR POSSIBLY               
ELIMINATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA MONDAY                          
MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION PERHAPS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS BY               
AFTERNOON. MORE INFORMATION WILL FOLLOW THIS AFTERNOON.                         
JAMES                                                                           
--------------------------                                                      
338 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2002                                                      
SFC LO DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO/WRN KS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACRS OK/KS               
BRDR DURING THE DAY AS S/W MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE AREA. STG               
WINDS EXPECTED WITH GRADIENT REMAINING FAIRLY TIGHT DURING THE DAY              
AND SOME MIXING DOWN OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...ESP THIS AFTN IN THE              
WAKE OF S/W MOVING THROUGH. WITH REL MILD TMPS AND LOW RH WILL GO               
AHEAD AND ISSUE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF RAPIDLY            
THIS EVENING AS SFC LOW PULLS AWAY AND AMS DECOUPLES. MAIN FORECAST             
PROBLEM IS THE STG UPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FA EARLY IN              
THE WEEK AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PARTS OF THE FA CUD SEE SIG WINTER              
PRECIP BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS. UPR LOW NOW OFF THE WEST COAST IS                   
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD BEFORE MOVING INTO SRN CA/NRN MEX             
SUNDAY. AS SYS ADVANCES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT ISENT LIFT TO                   
DEVELOP...ESP ACRS SRN SECS OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREV FCST             
TREND AND INCLUDE POPS FOR ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE FA SUNDAY                  
NIGHT. STILL LOOKS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID.  THINGS             
GET MORE INTERESTING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR GRADUALLY            
FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DID NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES              
TO WX GRIDS MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE NORTH...RAIN IN            
THE SE...AND MIXED PRECIP CNTRL. EXPECT WINTERY PRECIP AREA TO                  
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE FRTHR SWD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR            
DEEPENS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SHUT DOWN LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT             
AS WAVE EJECTS NEWD.  WILL ADD POPS FOR THURSDAY AS NEXT S/W                    
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AS ACTIVE PATTERN                                   
CONTINUES.                                                                      
FCSTID =    2                                                                   
OKC   55  27  50  34 /  10  10  10  10                                          
HBR   55  23  50  33 /   0  10  10  20                                          
SPS   60  28  53  37 /   0  10  10  30                                          
GAG   50  15  48  30 /  10  10  10  10                                          
PNC   53  25  49  32 /  10  10  10   0                                          
DUA   64  30  54  38 /  10  10  10  20                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ok