FXUS64 KHGX 090724
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001
AVN SEEMS TO BE HAVING SOME CONSISTENCY PROBS...ESPECIALLY IN LATER 
PERIODS. WILL USE THE ETA THROUGH 60 HRS...AND THE UKMET/EURO 
THEREAFTER. THIS RESULTS IN LTL CHG TO ONGOING PKG. 
ETA SHOWS FLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND DEPTH TDA. 
THIS SHD RESULT IN A DECENT INCR IN MOISTURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 
PW VALUES UP TO ABT 1.7" BY 00Z. ETA ALSO SHOWS A VORT MOVING NE 
ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW A CAPPED 
ENVIRONMENT. ETA PICKS UP ON THIS BUT ERODES THE CAP THIS AFTN. THIS 
MAY BE A BIT QUICK GIVEN UPSTREAM MID AND UPR LVL TEMPS AND FCST 
HEIGHTS FOR THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY MUCH WHERE THEY ARE. 
MOS SHOWS 40 PCT ACRS A LRG PART OF THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TOO HIGH. 
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT PRESENT TMRW WITH MOISTURE LVLS UP ANOTHER TENTH 
OR TWO. WILL USE SIMILAR POPS DURING THE DAY. BETTER SHOT AT PRECIP 
SHOULD BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU IF THE ETA IS CORRECT. SFC TROUGH/FNT
WILL BE INTO THE CWA AT THAT TIME. PW VALUES FCST NEAR 1.9" AT THE 
COAST. 
.HGX...NONE.
46/41/48
PRELIMS...
CLL EE 084/072 083/070 081 323
IAH EE 084/073 086/072 081 323 
GLS EE 082/074 083/074 081 323
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FXUS64 KHGX 091504
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001
12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH PW OF 1.5 
INCHES...BUT SIGNIFICANT CAP AT 750 MB. DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED TO 
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS CWA BUT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS MOISTURE 
REMAINS RATHER SHALLOW. EXPECT BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN 
OUTSIDE OF SE TX THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING 
CAPPED THROUGH AFTERNOON PER 12Z MESOETA.  WITHOUT A FOCUS FOR 
CONVECTION AND LIFTING MECHANISM...HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TO 20 
PERCENT FOR FIRST PERIOD. BREAKS IN CLOUDS THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW 
TEMPS TO REACH FORECASTED LEVELS THIS AFTN. MAY TWEAK TEMPS AND 
CLOUD WORDING SOME AREAS.
.HGX...NONE.
35/42/TF
PRELIMS...
CLL EE 086/072 083/070 081 223
IAH EE 084/073 086/072 081 223 
GLS BE 083/074 083/074 081 223
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FXUS64 KHGX 091920
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
220 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001
STATIONARY BAND OF SHRA HAS DEVELOPED FROM HOUSTON SOUTH TO OFFSHORE 
WATERS BUT REST OF CWA QUIET THIS AFTN. WILL KEEP LOW POPS IN FCST 
FOR TONIGHT BUT EXPECT SHRA WILL DIE OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME 
HEATING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SERIES 
OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FIRST SHORTWAVE NOW 
MOVING ACROSS TX PANHANDLE BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CWA 
TONIGHT. SECOND 500 MB TROF WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE WED. 
MESOETA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN AVN WITH SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LIFT INCREASING OVER SE TX LATE WED 
INTO THURSDAY. 12Z MESOETA FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE 
AIRMASS OVER SE TX WED WITH CAPES OF 4000...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND 
A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS MOST OF CWA IN SLIGHT 
RISK. EXPECT STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER CENTRAL/NE TX WED AFTN AND 
MOVE INTO SE TX WED NIGHT. SINCE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE 3RD 
PERIOD WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES FOR NOW AND LET MID SHIFT PERUSE NEW 
MODEL DATA. COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF CWA THROUGH WED NIGHT 
BUT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL 
STALL OVER SE TX AND PROVIDE A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE FOCUS EVEN AS 
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. HEAVY 
RAINFALL MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS 12Z 
AVN PROGS PWS TO REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT CONCERNING NEXT SHORTWAVE PROGGED 
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN PLAINS. 00Z AVN/MRF DEPICTED VIGOROUS 
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NE TX FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY BUT 12Z RUN HAS 
BACKED OFF ON STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AGAIN. EITHER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR  
COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY ACROSS CWA LATE FRI NIGHT. WIND PROFILE 
WOULD FAVOR SQUALL LINE FORMING ALONG FRONT. NORTHWEST FLOW 
DOMINATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES 
REGION. STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SE TX LATE 
SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE RETURN MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH TO YIELD LOW POPS.  
.HGX...NONE.
35/42/TF
PRELIMS...
CLL ET 071/085 069/078 066 246
IAH ET 073/086 070/081 068 235 
GLS ET 075/083 074/081 073 235
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FXUS64 KHGX 100236
AFDHOU
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
935 PM CDT TUE OCT 9 2001
SHRA IN NORTHERN FA HAVE DIED OFF. A LOT OF CHAFF EVIDENT OVER THE
GULF AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME TELLING 88D VELOCITY AND VWP PRODUCTS THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SE FETCH OFF THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN THE
MOISTURE...GPS SOUNDING AT PALESTINE INDICATES 1.9" PW MADE IT THROUGH
THERE AROUND 22Z AND HAVE SINCE FALLEN OFF TO 1.6". GLS GPS SOUNDING
NOT AVAILABLE BUT GIVEN THE LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WOULD THINK THAT
IT SHOULD BE IN THE 1.5" BALLPARK. AM VERY SUSPICIOUS OF CRP UA
MOISTURE PROFILE...LOOKS LIKE A BAD SENSOR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT SSE FETCH. SHRA DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA. MODELS PROG A
STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AND DIMINISHING CAP TOWARD MORNING. WILL
PROBABLY WORD ZONES AS 20ISH POPS TOWARD MORNING. WILL TWEAK THE
COASTAL COUNTY WINDS TO EAST. WILL DO THE SAME TO MARINE PACKAGE FOR
BAYS AND WATERS OUT TO 20 NM.  CLOUD COVER AND MODERATE WAA SHOULD
SLOW OR STOP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FALLS. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ACTION
TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON-NIGHT SHOULD MAKE FOR A BUSY OFFICE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.HGX...NONE.
45/37/D
PRELIMS...
CLL ET 071/085 069/078 066 246
IAH ET 073/086 070/081 068 235
GLS ET 075/083 074/081 073 235