EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
320 AM PDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND                
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL BRING WEAK SOUTHERLY            
FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA               
THROUGH MID WEEK. A MINOR SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A              
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY.                     
SYNOPTIC PATTERN IMPACTING SRN CA WL CHANGE LITTLE DURG THE NEXT FEW            
DAYS WITH  A WK UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CA CST WITH BROAD HIGH                     
PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS WL RESULT IN WK SLY FLOW ALF              
OVR SRN CA WITH WK ONSHR FLOW. HOWEVER...SUBSYNOPTIC DETAILS SHOULD             
RESULT IN PERCEPTIBLE DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES.                                   
FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN IS THE INFLUX OF MOSTLY MID LVL MONSOONAL MSTR            
INTO SRN CA TODAY. 03Z ETA IS WELL-INITIALIZED AND PREFERRED. MSTR              
ASSOCD WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS OVR FAR SW AZ WL REMAIN ALG AND E             
OF THE MTNS TODAY. MTSR ASSOCD WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVR NW MEXICO SUN             
EVENING WL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO SRN CA TODAY ALG AND W OF THE                
MTNS. ETA BRINGS A SWATH OF 70+ PERCENT RH AT 500 MB NORTHWARD                  
ACROSS SRN CA ALG AND W OF THE MTNS TODAY. WL CHANGE WORDING FOR                
CSTL SXNS TODAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MORNING LOW CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT            
FOR THIS BRIEF INFLUX OF MID LVL MSTR. FOR MTNS AND DESERTS...WL                
INCR POPS TO LOW END OF CHANCE CATEGORY TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE                
INFLUX OF MSTR...KPG HIGHEST POPS IN THE MTNS. BOTH RUC AND ETA                 
GENERATE QPF TODAY ALF THE MTNS FROM THE SBD MTNS S. ETA ACTUALLY               
GENERATES QPF FOR SAN COUNTY MTNS AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING...               
HENCE WL REMOVE TIME QUALIFIERS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE SAN             
COUNTY MTNS. WL LEAVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR TUE UNCHANGED FOR NOW.           
MARINE LYR...SUN EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS/RAOBS SHOWED A MARINE LYR              
DEPTH OF AROUND 700 FT LAX...TO 1500 FT NKX. WITH LTL CHANGE IN                 
HEIGHTS ALF OVR SRN CA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT ONLY MINOR DAY TO             
DAY CHANGES IN THE MARINE LYR DEPTH THRU MID WEEK. MDLS ARE ABSENT              
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR A CSTL EDDY THRU TUE. HIGHER RESOLUTION MDLS               
SHOW ONLY WK ONSHR FLOW AND NO CSTL EDDY. EXPECT CONTINUATION OF                
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG               
INLAND ORANGE COUNTY CSTL PLAIN...SAN COUNTY CSTL MESAS...AND LWR               
CSTL VLYS OF SAN COUNTY.                                                        
TEMPERATURES...WITH MDTLY HIGH HEIGHTS ALF AND VRY WK ONSHR FLOW...             
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY HOT FM THE VLYS INLAND WITH              
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSE TO THE CST.                    
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KLOX 231004  ca                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
800 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
DOPPLER RADAR LOOP INDICATING THAT EXCEPT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND             
STORMS OVER NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES...DAILY CONVECTIVE                  
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING. LATEST RUC MODEL MAINTAINS AN AREA OF                     
VORTICITY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL            
WAIT A WHILE LONGER AND MOINTOR TRENDS HOWEVER...WE WILL REMOVE                 
PRECIPITION CHANCES LATER THIS EVENING.                                         
MARINE...WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGES OTHER THAN BUMPING UP WINDS A                 
LITTLE FOR TONIGHT AS PER RECENT TRENDS OF BUOYS 9 AND 10.                      
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
WIMMER/TROUTMAN                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 232338  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
945 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE             
IMAGERY SHOWS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN DUVAL COUNTY AND THE             
OKEFENOKEE NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF OUR GA CWA.                                
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TODAY WILL HARDLY MOVE. KJAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS            
AN UNMODIFIED CAPE OF 3200 J/KG. THE WET BULB ZERO IS 12.6 KFT WHICH            
IS LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN MOST OF THE SUMMER. BOTTOM LINE IS WE CAN             
EXPECT STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL              
DROP THE POPS A CATEGORY IN GA AS CHANCES FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE                  
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA.                           
NORTH WINDS AT GRAYS REEF HAVE SHIFTED TO NNE. RUC MODEL INDICATES              
THEY WILL BE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL TWEAK THE CWF                        
ACCORDINGLY.                                                                    
MKT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 231326  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
305 AM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
06Z MSAS AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACRS WEST               
CENTRAL MN WITH FRNTL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACRS EAST SD                 
AND INTO NE. THIS FEATURE SFC REFLECTION OF VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE                 
THAT CURRENT W/V LOOP IS INDICATING NICELY OVER NORTHEAST ND. W/V               
LOOP ALSO INDICATING MUCH WEAKER LEAD VORT ACRS SOUTHERN WI AND                 
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA. THIS SMALLER VORT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED                 
FORCING HELPING TO INDUCE ONGOING PRECIP ACRS KDVN CWA ATTM...WHICH             
BY THE WAY 00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE DOING POORLY WITH. 00Z H5             
UA ANALYSIS ALSO DISPLAYS THESE TWO VORT CENTERS NICELY...AND AS                
ADJACENT SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST...MAIN UPSTREAM WAVE TO BE MAIN            
PLAYER FOR MONDAY/S WX. BACK TO THE SFC...MSAS INDICATING MOISTURE              
AXIS OF 65+ DPTS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ON SOUTHWARD ACRS THE WEST           
HALF OF IA AND NORTHWEST MO. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NORTH OF WEAK                 
SFC TROUGH ACRS NORTHERN MO AIDING PRECIP ACRS SOUTHEAST IA ATTM. SFC           
THERMAL AXIS ALSO BUILDING AS 70+ AMBIENT TEMPS NOTED ACRS FAR                  
SOUTHERN IA...KS AND MO. STRONG SFC PRES FALLS CONTINUING WHERE THEY            
SHOULD ACRS CENTRAL MN...WITH ANOTHER FALLS BULLSEYE NOTED ACRS SOUTH           
CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN MO.                                                     
SHORT RANGE MODELS INITIATED DECENTLY WITH UPPER FEATURES...AND W/V             
IMAGERY INDICATING MODELS DOING WELL WITH VORT STRENGTH AND                     
PLACEMENT AS WELL. MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER IN HANDLING VIGOROUS               
UPSTREAM WAUE IN STRENGTH AND POSITIONING THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY                
18Z MON...MODELS SIMILAR WITH WAVE PUSHING ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF               
OF MN WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TAKING PLACE ACRS THE MID                
MISS RVR VALLEY. STRONG PVA STARTS TAKING PLACE ACRS EASTERN IA                 
WITH ETA AND NGM REASONABLY SIMILAR...AVN LAGS BEHIND SOMEWHAT.                 
OVERNIGHT...CLOSED UPPER LOW TRAVERSES ACRS EAST IA AND MAKES ITS               
WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IL ON TUE. THIS CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM             
THEN BOGS DOWN LATE ON TUES AS IT APPROACHES THE OH RVR VALLEY.                 
AS ONE WOULD THINK...SYSTEM THIS VIGOROUS WILL INDUCE STRONG                    
VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH UPPER SPEED MAX ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF              
SASK AIDING IN THE PROCESS. BY 18Z MON...STRONG H85-H5 QG FORCING               
MAXIMUM BUILDS OVER EAST IA AND SHIFTS ACRS WEST CENTRAL-CENTRAL IL             
BY 00Z TUE...THEN CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO TUE                    
MORNING. LOOKING AT THERMAL/MOISTURE PARAMETERS FOR STRONGER                    
THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL MORE               
AT RISK FOR SUBSTANTIAL TSRA/S THIS AFTERNOON. BY 18Z...ETA BRINGS              
1600-2K J/KG SBCAPE RIBBON ACRS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IA...AND             
BY 00Z TUE BEST CAPES ARE ACRS SOUTHERN KS INTO MO...ALTHOUGH WE                
WILL NEED SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO ACHIEVE THESE VALUES.               
LINGERING 1300-1600 J/KG CAPES FCST TO CONTINUE ACRS FAR SOUTHEAST IA           
AND WEST CENTRAL IL AROUND 00Z TUE. BETWEEN 18Z MON-00Z TUE...BEST              
H85 THTA-E ADVECTION OCCURS ACRS MO INTO SOUTHEAST IA ALONG WITH H85            
THTA-E RIDGE AXIS. BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS SETS UP ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL           
IA INTO MO...ALTHOUGH 20 KT LLJ FEEDS MOST OF EASTERN IA WITH NICE              
H85 MOISTURE FLUX. H85-H7 UVV BULLSEYE ALSO ACRS MOST OF EAST IA THIS           
AFTERNOON...BUT ALL THESE PROCESSES SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS THIS                
EVENING PROGRESSES. INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE             
ALSO TO BE A FACTOR AND MOST OF CWA OPEN TO SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT               
THIS AFTERNOON...JUST FEEL SOUTHERN THIRD OF CWA MORE PRONE TO                  
SUBSTANTIAL STORMS IF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE ALLOWED TO BE MET              
WITH SOME HEATING...AND WITH LATEST RUC CONTINUING TO PUMP MOISTURE             
ACRS CWA...MAY BE A QUESTION.                                                   
AS SYSTEM BOGS DOWN TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...FEEL AREA WILL BE UNDER           
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS...RAIN/               
DRIZZLE...AND A NORTHERLY WIND. ALL THIS LENDS TO FWC AND EVEN FAN              
NUMBERS BEING TOO OPTIMISTICALLY WARM.                                          
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
JDH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 230810  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1025 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
01Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW DROPPING INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH         
AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING VORT SWIRL ON THE WV SATELLITE LOOP. EARLIER              
SOUTHERN VORT HAS MOVED EAST TAKING THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH IT. WE         
WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE                
MESOETA AND RUC BOTH TRY TO REDEVELOP PRECIPITATION ACROSS BY 09Z. I            
DON T BUY THAT AS LAPS AND MSAS DATA SHOW MORE STABLE THAN NOT AIR              
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SHOWER MOVING             
NORTHWEST OF FLEMING COUNTY A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME IN THIS             
ENVIRONMENT. THE BEST RAINS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL VORT            
AND ENERGY GETS CLOSER...AFTER 12Z. AS IT STANDS THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT          
FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE DESPITE THE COMPLEX SITUATION COMING           
TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE MAINLY           
FOR WORDING WITH THE THEME SIMILAR.                                             
UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                      
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
GREIF                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 231926  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
230 PM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A 30 PERCENT-TYPE RAIN EVENT THAT                  
EXTENDS ALONG THE ENTIRE I20 CORRIDOR. NGM FWC NUMBERS ARE 30 PCT...            
AND ETA AND NGM FOUS GIVES QPF OVERNIGHT AT SHV. MAIN FOCUS IS                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF VORTICITY AXIS AND SURFACE                  
BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MOISTENED UP ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT             
NEAR LUFKIN WHERE IT ALREADY WAS STICKY. TEMPS ALL MORNING HAVE BEEN            
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWN THAT RUC POINTS TO DECENT MOISTURE              
FLUX CONVERGENCE FROM FORT SMITH TO WICHITA FALLS THIS EVENING. THIS            
IS INTERESTING IN THAT MY MAIN POPS CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TEXAS                
PORTION OF THE I20 CORRIDOR...WHERE I HAVE A BIT OF A HARD TIME                 
JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY THE NGM. MAYBE THE RUC IS ON TO                 
SOMETHING. EVEN SO...CAN THIS SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS MAKE IT FAR                 
ENOUGH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. I THINK I WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND               
SAY 20 PERCENT FOR GGG/TYR TONIGHT.                                             
20 PCT POPS THIS EVENING NEAR LFK IN CASE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM            
EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SW. BUT A BREATHING-IN PERIOD OVERNIGHT FROM          
BRET WILL NOT LET CONVECTION LAST LONG THERE THIS EVENING.                      
POSITION OF SFC TROF IS A CONSIDERATION TOMORROW FOR UPPING MAX                 
TEMPS IF IT WEREN/T FOR THE POSBL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WILL GO HIGHER            
THAN GUIDANCE SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY...AND OVER SRN AR/SE OK. IT IS              
ALONG AND AHEAD OF TROF/FRONT THAT PERHAPS ANOTHER BATHC OF TSTMS               
WILL FIRE...GIVEN THE SLGT RISK FOR FAR NRN LA AND SRN AR ON THE                
SECOND DAY OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF THIS...WILL NOT MENTION            
A /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WORDING. BUT POPS FOR MLU AREA WILL BE THE             
CONSISTENTLY HIGHEST IN MY PRODUCT.                                             
BY 48 HOURS WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF TO NE AND UPPER RIDGE TO NW.             
N/NW FLOW ALOFT ALWAYS HAS POTENTIAL TO SURPRISE US...BUT THERE IS              
ALSO A NORTHERLY FLOW AT SURFACE. THIS CAUSED THE MRF TO DROP POPS              
LOW ENOUGH TO NIL THEM OUT FOR WED AND THURSDAY EXCEPT DOWN SOUTH               
WEDNESDAY. SO SUGGEST EVENING SHIFT ADD THURSDAY TO THE DRY DAYS IN             
THE EXTENDED AND THEN REINTRO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.     17               
PRELIM GUESSES...                                                               
SHV 73/96/72/95 2320                                                            
MLU 73/96/70/95 3330                                                            
TXK 71/97/69/95 3320                                                            
TYR 72/96/70/96 2220                                                            
LFK 74/97/73/96 2322                                                            
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLIX 231917  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
915 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
LTST ANALYSIS SFC AND ALOFT WUD SUGGEST PTTN WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATUS           
QUO OVRNGT AS SUGGESTED BY THE 21Z RUC. WEAK S/W IN H5 FLOW FCST TO             
DRIFT ACRS VA AND VCNTY ALONG WITH HI LAYERED RH FIELD TO GENERATE              
ISOLD SHWRS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL TSTMS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDN.              
SAT IMAGERY DEPICTS PC TO MC ACRS THE CWA WITH ADDITIONAL AREAS OF              
CLDINS HEADED THIS WAY FROM THE UPR OH VLY. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS            
UP A BIT DUE TO CLD CVR OVRNGT. OTW WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC OF A SHWR           
OR TSTM ACRS THE BOARD.                                                         
IN THE TROPICAL DEPT THE FEATURE N OF PUERTO RICO WILL REQUIRE SOME             
ATTENTION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ERLR 12Z AVN APPARENTLY IS FCSTG THIS              
DVLPG SYSTEM TO MOVE NW AND BE LOCATED WELL SE OF THE SE CST IN 72 HRS.         
IT MAY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE LEAD SIDE OF            
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING E ACRS THE OH VLY AT THAT TIME.                           
OTW THAT'S IT FOR NOW...NEXT TIME.                                              
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
PAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 231842  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1015 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
LATEST SATELLITE AND KAPX RADAR CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP DIMINISH AS             
IT ENTERS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. RUC AND LATEST ETA SUGGEST BEST                   
FORCING TO TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE AND RADAR              
IMAGERY IN SUPPORT OF THIS. THEREFORE WILL DROP POPS TO 30 PERCENT              
IN FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL ALSO DROP SCATTERED WORDING IN FAR                 
NORTHERN LOWER ZONE TO ISOLATED SHOWER...AND WILL DROP SCATTERED TO             
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ALCONA...CRAWFORD AND OSCODA COUNTIES. SATELLITE            
AND SURFACE REPORTS ALSO INDICATING MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER UNDER                
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL THUS DROP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR PARTLY            
CLOUDY IN FAR NORTHERN LOWER AND NORTHEAST LOWER BREAKOUTS.                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 240215  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
FCST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POSS OF BR AND -SHRA THRU TMRW                
MORN.                                                                           
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006MB SFC LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED IN              
WEST CENTRAL IL. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS INTENSE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF              
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM KORD BACK TO KCOU. AS FAR AS THE U.P.              
IS CONCERNED...01Z 88D LOOP IS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPING -SHRA IN NRN             
WI AND THESE ARE INFILTRATING THE SRN BORDER COUNTIES. THE SOURCE OF            
THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY IS THE QUESTION OF THE HOUR AND WILL IT CONTINUE            
ALSO IS A CONCERN.                                                              
21Z AND 00Z RUC MODEL POINTS TO AN AREA OF H3 DIVERGENCE BETWEEN 00Z            
AND 03Z NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN H5 VORT MAX LOCATED OVER ERN IOWA AND             
THIS COULD BE THE SOURCE OF THE -SHRA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE WI                  
BORDER COUNTIES...ALSO A WEAK VORT MAX/MINI SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING              
INTO THE U.P. ON THE FRONT OF THE 500MB TROF PER THE RUC AND 18Z                
MESOETA. BELIEVE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THESE FORCING                  
MECHANISMS ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE -SHRA OVER THE SRN AND SWRN             
U.P. ATTM.                                                                      
IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORN PERIOD BOTH THE MESOETA AND               
RUC BRING ANOTHER VERY WEAK SHTWV INTO THE WRN U.P. BY 12Z FROM THE             
NORTHWEST. SCT SHRA IN NC MN ATTM COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO THIS                   
FEATURE WHICH SHOWS DIVERGENCE MORE IMPRESSIVELY AT H5 THAN AT H3.              
EITHER WAY...MODELS TEND TO WEAKEN THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT                  
APPROACHES THE U.P. HOWEVER...AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT            
IT COULD KICK OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WRN ZONES SO WILL               
LEAVE FCST AS IT IS...WITH A SCATTERED SHOWERS MENTION. OTHERWISE               
WILL DOWNPLAY THE SHOWERS IN THE EAST AS IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING            
WILL NOT EFFECT THAT AREA VERY MUCH..IF AT ALL.                                 
WILL OPEN UP TEMPERATURES TO 60 TO 65 IN THE FAR EAST AND FAR WEST              
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED CLD               
COVER.                                                                          
WILL BUMP POPS DOWN IN THE EAST TMRW MORNING W/ WEAKER FORCING                  
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 240137  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1055 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
12Z H5 ANAL AND LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS DEEP SHRTWV NR FAR WITH NLY H3             
90KT JET MAX AT BIS DIGGING SEWD IN GENERAL NWLY FLOW ALF BTWN UPR              
RDG OVR ROCKIES AND MEAN TROF IN ERN CONUS. SFC LO PRES IN SCNTRL MN            
BUT APPEARING TO REDVLP FARTHER S ALG COLD FNT STRETCHING INTO CNTRL            
PLAINS IN PATH OF MORE SGNFT DYNAMICS AND TOWARD SHARPER 12Z H85                
TEMP GRADIENT. SHRA/TSRA AHD OF MN LO PRES HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AS AREA         
HAS MOVD EWD LAST COUPLE OF HRS PER COMPOSITE 88D LOOP/DCRSG LGT                
STRIKES/WRMG IR CLD TOP TEMPS. THIS TREND CONSISTENT WITH LACK OF               
SGNFT LO LVL THERMAL GRADIENT/WND/OVRRNG OVR NRN LKS AND XPCTD TRACK            
OF BEST H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC AHD OF DIGGING SHRTWV. OTRW...LOTS OF LO            
CLD OBSVD OVR CWA THIS MRNG WITH SFC DWPTS GENERALLY ARND 62 AND LGT            
SLY FLOW AHD OF MN LO PRES. 88D SHOWS SCT -SHRA ARND WITH GENERAL               
-SHRA AHD OF LO NOW REACHING IWD...WHICH JUST RPRTD LTG TO NW. LARGE            
HOLE IN LO CLD NOTED JUST DOWNWIND OF HURON MNTS OVR SRN LK SUP                 
WHERE SLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING. 12Z GRB SDNG DEPICTS ABUNDANT            
LO LVL MSTR/NRLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE BLO DRY/MORE STABLE LYR             
ABV H6-65.                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY CENTER ARND EXTENT OF CLDS/PCPN/TSRA AND TEMPS.         
12Z RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER ETA/MESOETA RUNS IN KEEPING              
BEST DPVA AHD OF DIGGING SHRTWV AND H85 WAD TO S OF CWA. MODEL                  
ACTUALLY SLOWLY BLDS H5 HGT AND MAINTAINS LWR H7 RH OVR U.P. WITH               
H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC OVR ALL BUT SRN TIER ZNS AS H5 SHRTWV CUTS OFF               
AND SFC LO REDVLPS TO S. ALTHOUGH INSOLATION MAY BURN A FEW HOLES IN            
LO CLD AND ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 70-75 RANGE AS FCST BY LATEST LAMP              
GUIDANCE...MODIFIED GRB SDNG FOR 75/63 YIELDS ONLY 730 J/KG CAPE                
WITH A SML NEGATIVE AREA. GIVEN LACK OF BNDRY...ANY SGNFT DYNAMICS/             
OVRRNG AND POTENTIAL THAT LO CLD WL HANG TOUGH AND KEEP TEMPS A BIT             
LWR...WL DOWNPLAY PCPN CHCS AND RESTRICT MENTION OF PSBL RUMBLE OF              
THUNDER TO WI BORDER ZNS.                                                       
GOING TEMPS LOOK OKAY...BUT WL LWR MAX FCST A BIT OVR E GIVEN                   
EXTENSIVE CLD COVER.                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 231435  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM...RAIN CHANCES.                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CORE OF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 30             
MILES NORTHWEST OF REDWOOD FALLS MOVING SOUTHEAST. 12Z ETA AND 12Z              
RUC AGAIN SHOW 700 MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL                  
CIRCULATION WARMING THROUGH 00Z TUE. WARMING BEHIND UPPER LEVEL                 
CENTER HELPING TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. BASED ON INCREASING                   
STABILITY...AND 6 HOUR VS. 12 HOURS FOR THIS AFTERNOON POP...HAVE               
LOWERED THE POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN PORTION OF CWA AND                 
ADJACENT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL WI.  FARTHER EAST...PLENTY OF                 
FORCING AND STABILITY TO JUSTIFY HIGH POPS FOR RAIN AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN ABSENCE OF EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF            
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD                 
INTERACT WITH THE COOL AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKIES...CALLED IT VARAIABLE CLOUDINESS.                                         
TRENDS FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOK GOOD FROM EARLIER PACKAGE.                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
 RJN                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 230838  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
940 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
ANOTHER EVNG WITH MULTIPLE SFC HIGHS/RDG PATS IN NRN AND WRN DIST.              
FIRST STRAND OF CI NR KOGS-KUCA WHILE BEGINNING OF MORE WDSPRD WAA              
PAT CLDS NR KOSC-KIAG-KAVP ARC WITH SFC WRMFNT ATTEMPTING TO MOV                
ACRS SRN OH AND THRU ERN WV PNHNDL. RUC SHOWS LTL MOTION TO THAT                
FEATURE...BUT DOES DEVELOP PRE-FNTL TROF INVOF ERN GRTLKS BY 09Z.               
WITH THAT IN MIND...WL XPC HI CLDS TO BE ACRS AREA S OF KOIC-KPSF               
AXIS BY SR. ELSW...MSTLY CLR SHOULD BE USABLE N OF THE LN...BUT WRN             
ADRNDCKS WL LEAN TO VRBL HI CLDS. WL EASE OFF ON FOG FCST SRN ZONES             
AND WL STAY PUT NRN AND CNTRL SXNS.   MCKINLEY/GEW                              
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 240103  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
855 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
IR AND WV LOOPS SHOW CI SHIELD THICKENING ACROSS THE SW 1/2 OF CWA.             
USED 21Z RUC AS A GUIDE TO HOW FAR THE CI WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH              
OVERNIGHT. IT SHOWS A WEAKENING 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH UPPER           
RIDGE OVR CEN NY AND NE PA AND 300MB RH SHOWING CI WILL SHOULD MOVE             
INTO THE WRN CATSKILLS 06Z TO 09Z. IT KEEPS THE MID LVLS DRY OVER OUR           
AREA.                                                                           
SO MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. WILL USE PARTLY CLOUDY TNT FOR         
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA...INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE                  
EAST...AND MAINLY CLEAR NORTH.                                                  
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL HIGH CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE OVER 1/2 FA...HAVE UPPED           
TNT MINS SLIGHTLY BY DROPPING THE MENTION OF UPPER 40S AND GENERALLY            
FAVORED THE MIDDLE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                   
REST OF FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED.                                                
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
CHIARAMONTE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 240016  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
200 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PCPN MOVG ACRS SRN MI INTO NW OH AND MAKING SLOW               
PROGRESS TWRD NYS.  ACCRDG TO RUC ANALYSIS INITIAL SHOT OF LIFT                 
DRIVING LGT PCPN RELATED TO WEAK VORT MAX AND 250 MB WAA/PV MAXIMA.             
THIS PROGGED TO SLIDE SEWRD ACRS ERN OH INTO WRN PA OVRNGT WHILE                
STRONGER PV MAX AND UPPR LVL WAA ASSOCD WITH DIGGING NRN PLAINS DROPS           
SEWRD INTO LWR OH VLLY.  LOW LYRS RELATIVLY DRY OVR MI/OH AND MOST              
OF PCPN HAS BEEN LGT.  AS INITIAL FORCG SLIDES SEWRD EXPECT PCPN TO             
STAY S AND W OF CWA TNGT.  MDLS KEEP LOW LYRS DRY THRU LATE DAY TUES            
SO EXPECT ONLY MID/HI LVL CLDS TO MOVE IN LATER TNGT. WILL KEEP IT              
MSTLY CLR TNGT AND HAVE INCRSG CLDS LATE...ESP IN WRN CWA.                      
FOR TMW AND TMW NGT...STRONG NRN PLAINS VORT MAX FCST TO WEAKEN AS              
INTITIALLY BAROCLINIC AMS MODIFIES AND BECOMES MORE BAROTROPIC WITH             
TIME.  JET MAX ON SW SIDE OF SHT WV DIGS SEWRD BUT WEAKENS AS MEAN              
TEMP GRAD WEAKENS.  INTITIAL STRONG UPPR LVL DIVERGENCE AND LIFT                
WITH JET WEAKENS AND BECOMES DIFFUSE AS WEAKENING JET CORE LOOSES               
ITS SPEED SHEAR AND TAKES ON A MORE CYCLONICALLY CURVED                         
CONFIGURATION.  BY 36-48 HRS LIFT ASSOCD WITH JET MAX MOSTLY DUE TO             
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALF WITH CURVED JET STRUCTURE. MOST OF Q-VECTOR             
FORCG RELATATED TO THIS CURVATURE RATHER THAN SPEED SHEAR AND LIFT              
REMAINS CONCENTRATED S AND W OF NYS.  ALSO WITH SUCH A BAROTROPIC               
AMS THERE REALLY WON'T BE MUCH LOW LVL WAA AHD OF SHT WV TO AID                 
LIFT.  THEREFORE LOW LYRS STAY FAIRLY DRY THRU 00Z/25 SO WILL GO                
WITH PTLY CLDY E AND N.  IN THE S AND W TMW...TIME-HGT CROSSS                   
SECTIONS SHOW DEEPER MSTR TWRD LATE DAY AND THERE MAY BE ENUF MSTR              
FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTM IN THE S.  BUFKIT DATA SHOWS ETA                
CAPES ARND 650 J/KG BUT NGM INSTABILITY MUCH WEAKER.  WILL LEAVE OUT            
OF ZNS FOR NOW BUT IF WE GET MORE HTG TMW THERE MAY BE ENUF                     
CONVECTION FOR SCT POPS.  TMW NGT SFC HI OFF ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC             
LOW OVR OH VLLY ESTABLISHES STRONG ENOUGH LOW LVL FLOW TO BEGIN                 
BRINGING IN LOW LVL MSTR TO CWA.  PRECIP WTR VALS AND 850 MB MIXING             
RATIO INCRS SLGTLY ESP ALNG SPINE OF APPALACHIAN MTNS IN CONFLUENCE             
ZN AND THIS ADVECTS NWRD INTO SRN CWA.  DESPITE WEAK DYNAMC SUPPORT             
FOR LIFT WILL GO WITH SCT POPS OVR SRN CWA TMW NGT BASED ON INCRSG              
LOW LVL MSTR AND OROGRPHIC LIFT BUT WILL KEEP CNTRL AND NRN ZNS DRY.            
BY WED DEEP LYR MSTR IN PLACE BUT STILL LITTLE DYNAMC FORCG AS SHT              
WV CUTS OFF OVR IN/OH AND STALLS.  BEST MSTR AND INCRSG LIFT WILL BE            
FELT ACRS CNTRL PA AND S BUT FEEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN ACRS SRN CWA WILL            
BE INCRSG AS WELL SO WILL GO WITH 40 PCNT THERE AND 30 PCNT CNTRL               
AND N. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER ON WED DUE TO MORE CLD CVR BUT GUIDANCE             
APPEARS TO BE IN THE BALLPARK.                                                  
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KALY 231352  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
945 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
EXPECT ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE.              
SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT CLOUD TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING AS UPPER                    
DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WANE AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY MORE                  
STABLE AIRMASS. 21Z RUC SIMILAR TO 12Z AVN IN DEPICTING VORT CENTER             
SHEARING ENE ACROSS VA WHILE SLIGHTLY STRONGER VORT CENTER MOVES ESE            
ACROSS TN VLY. APPEARS BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER NIGHT WILL BE WESTERN             
SECTIONS OF PIED. SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT POP                 
FORECAST. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATE E            
OF WESTERN PIEDMONT FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS                  
POSSIBLE IN INCREASING MOIST AIRMASS.                                           
THICKENING CLOUD COVER OVER CWA WILL REQUIRE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS                 
(UPWARD) TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS...MAINLY IN SANDHILLS AND NW PIED.                  
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
WSS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 240131  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
930 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
LATEST IR IMG DEPICTS WARMING TOPS CORRELATING WELL W/ DECREASE IN              
LTG DETECTION AS COVC WEST OF CWFA DISSIPATES. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME             
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT I EXPECT THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE TO                   
SUBSIDE. ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ONE ISOALTED              
TSRA OF CONCERN PASSED OVR KSVH AROUND 0015Z BUT IS RAPIDLY LOSING              
ITS PUNCH AS IT TRACKS SE. LOOKING AT THE 21Z RUC DATA...IT APPEARS             
THE SUPPORT FOR THIS STORM WAS COMPRISED OF H50-H30 DIFF VORT ADV               
AND H30-H10 DIV ASSOCIATED W/ UPPER S/W. THE RUC LOSES THESE                    
SUPPORTING FEATURES RAPIDLY ACRS CWFA BUT REDEVELOPS THEM OFF SHORE.            
SO I WILL INTRODUCE ISO POPS ALONG COASTAL COUNTIES W/ THE                      
ANTICIPATION OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OFF COAST AND EXPECTED EAST TO              
WEST MOVEMENT. DRY REST OF CWA. NO ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPS.                         
CWF...NO CHANGES                                                                
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
JFP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 240045  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1018 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
HIGH CENTERED VICINTY DELMARVA PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH AXIS            
INTO COASTAL NCAROLINA. HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY AS             
RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER STATE.  LATEST RADAR SHOW SMALL            
AREA OF SHOWERS JUST WEST OF CWA (LINCOLN/GASTON COUNTIES)...VERY               
WEAK FEATURES ATTRIBUTING TO ACTIVITY..MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SUBTLE              
FEATURE AT 700 MB AND WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS PER 12Z RUC. EXPECT            
TO STAY WEST OF CWA...MORNING RAOB SHOW CWA STABLE ENOUGH TO BE NON             
EFFECT. WILL WATCH THOUGH. WILL GO MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY AS SATELLITE             
TRENDS SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM WEST.                                    
CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOKS REASONABLE ATHMO. THICKNESS SCHEME          
FULL SUN...AROUND 90...AC/AS...LOWER 80S. WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY AFTER        
A LOOK AT 11AM OBS.                                                             
ENJOY THE AFTERNOON.                                                            
.RAH...NONE.                                                                    
RA                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 231359  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR POPS                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1015 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
UPON FURTHER CONSIDERATION WL RUN WITH ISOLATED POPS ACROSS CWA.                
RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWING DIFF SOLNS CONCERNING S/W ENERGY FOR                   
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MESO KEEPS WEAK PVA OVR THE AREA THRU               
THE NIGHT AND RUC INDICATES NVA. 88-D SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVR THE               
ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE NEAR COAST AREAS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE               
RUC SOLN AND WL LEAN TOWARDS THE RUC AND THE MESO PRECIP FIELDS ARE             
NOT DOING WELL. WL DROP POPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND LOWER COASTAL              
POPS TO ISOLATED.                                                               
CWF...WINDS HAVE BECOME SE OVR GA WATERS AND ESE OVR SC WATERS.                 
MAY SHIFT BETWEEN SE AND E FOR RST OF NGT ACRS SC CSTL WATERS... BUT            
WL PROBLY RMN MOSTLY SE ACRS GA WATERS ALL NGT. WL CHG FCST SLIGHTLY            
TO RFLCT THS TRND. WL CONT SCT POPS OVRNGT AS SERLY FLO CONTG TO                
PUMP MSTR IN OFF ATLNTC. OTRW...RST OF FCST LUKS OK.                            
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
JCI/WOODWORTH                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 240126  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
924 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
H5 DIFFLUENCE AND H85 WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTS CONTINUING POPS OVERNIGHT.        
THE RUC CONFINED MOST OF THE WARM ADVECTION TO THE WEST PART THROUGH            
09Z. PLAN TO KEEP 40 PERCENT POPS IN THE WEST BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE           
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. BELIEVE POPS CAN BE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN         
THE EAST DUE TO LESS WARM ADVECTION AND THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. NO         
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                                          
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
RJL                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 240107  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
908 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWING DIFF SOLNS CONCERNING S/W ENERGY FOR                   
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE MESO KEEPS WEAK PVA OVR THE AREA THRU               
THE NIGHT AND RUC INDICATES NVA. 88-D SHOWING SOME PRECIP OVR THE               
ATLANTIC AFFECTING THE NEAR COAST AREAS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE               
RUC SOLN AND WL LEAN TOWARDS THE RUC AND THE MESO PRECIP FIELDS ARE             
NOT DOING WELL. WL DROP POPS ACROSS INLAND AREAS AND LOWER COASTAL              
POPS TO ISOLATED.                                                               
CWF...WINDS HAVE BECOME SE OVR GA WATERS AND ESE OVR SC WATERS.                 
MAY SHIFT BETWEEN SE AND E FOR RST OF NGT ACRS SC CSTL WATERS... BUT            
WL PROBLY RMN MOSTLY SE ACRS GA WATERS ALL NGT. WL CHG FCST SLIGHTLY            
TO RFLCT THS TRND. WL CONT SCT POPS OVRNGT AS SERLY FLO CONTG TO                
PUMP MSTR IN OFF ATLNTC. OTRW...RST OF FCST LUKS OK.                            
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
JCI/WOODWORTH                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 240038  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
837 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TN IN LINE WITH 21Z RUC AND              
18Z ETA FORECASTS. VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO              
CWA LATER TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVES INTO NC                             
PIED...POSITIONING MUCH OF CWA IN FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.                
MODELS DEPICT GOOD UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE CENTERED OVER 850 MOIST                 
CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH SEVERAL SOLID BANDS OF             
SHRA/TSRA EITHER IN CWA OR TO OUR WEST ATTM...WILL UPDATE A LITTLE              
EARLY AND INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. WILL ADD THAT PRECIP             
WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...SINCE VORT MAX WEAKENS AND AIRMASS              
STABILIZES. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND MOST            
OF THE NIGHT AS WE MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTLY FLOW. MAY                 
TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE MTNS/NRN TIER OF NC FOOT AND PIED.                  
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOYER                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 231916  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
228 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS CWFA ATTM. LATEST RUC SHOWS UPPER              
LEVEL JET MOVING THRU THIS EVENING ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL               
SELY FLOW AND MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH. SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF              
COVERAGE THIS EVENING.                                                          
12Z MDLS QUITE SIMILAR WITH WEATHER FEATURES THRU 48 HRS. STRONG                
UPPER LOW DIVES INTO OH VLY THEN SLOWLY MOVES EWD. SOUTH TO                     
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUE OVER THE                
AREA THRU THE PERIOD. BEST FORCING MOVES TO OUR NORTH BUT GOOD OMEGA            
DEVELOPS OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER JET MOVING AROUND THE               
LOW. WEAK INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE AS WELL.                                      
NGM ODD MAN OUT MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN              
ETA OR AVN. MAIN EFFECTS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EXTENDED PERIOD.                 
FCST TEMPS PRETTY CLOSE AND GENERALLY EXCEPTED BUT WENT TOWARD                  
WARMER FWC NUMBERS AT AVL/GSP FOR TUESDAY.                                      
AVL 63/77/64/78 5656                                                            
GSP 68/82/69/82 5656                                                            
GSP 67/82/68/82 5656                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 231817  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1021 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
SOME CHANGES NEEDED TO GOING FCST. JET MAX ON 12Z H25 CHART SHOWN BY            
LATEST RUC AND 03Z ETA TO MOVE ACROSS CWFA TODAY. 03Z ETA GENERATES             
QUITE A BIT OF OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. ATMOS              
ALREADY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM. THE RUC AND 03Z ETA               
ALSO IN LINE WITH 00Z MDLS IN INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND                
MOISTURE. WILL ADD POPS TO ALL ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN               
LINE AND LOOKING GOOD ATTM.                                                     
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 231400  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1019 AM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAIN ELEMENT THRU AFTN.  STL LOCATES CENTER OF        
CIRCULATION NR KETH...WITH A SSE DRIFT. ABR RAOB HAS 1C 700 HPA TMP...          
WITH LTL COOLER MID LVL TMPS INDICATED BY STLT BIT FARTHER E.  AREAS            
EXTENT OF CU BUILDUP...AND DELINEATING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTN             
PRECIP ARE MAIN ISSUES TO WRESTLE.                                              
12Z RUC LOOKS WELL INITIALIZED...AND FITS 15Z TRENDS WELL. FCST SNDGS           
FOR MN AND ERN IA CWA DO EXHIBIT A VERY SMALL CAPE WITH WHAT APPEARS            
TO BE REASONABLE LOW LEVEL TMP/MSTR PROFILES...BUT MAY BE A BIT ON THE          
DRY SIDE...WITH MANY AREAS N AND E OF FSD WITH .5 INCH OR MORE WEEKEND          
RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD ONLY MAKE LTL MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE         
DEVELOPMENT.  WL UPDATE TO PUT IN SOME AFTN SHRA/TSRA IN SW MN INTO NW          
IA...BUT THREAT WL LKLY DIMINISH BY MID AFTN AS COLDEST AIR ALFT SLIPS          
BY AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FORCING STRENGTHENS.  MIXING DOWN OF NW           
FLOW MOMENTUM WL ALSO MAKE FOR BRISK WINDS...AS ADVERTISED.  TMPS NEED          
BE TRIMMED A BIT AS WELL N AND E.  WL BE SIGNIFICANLY MORE CLOUDINESS           
E IN CWA VS W...SO WL TRY AND WORK THIS IN AS WELL.                             
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 231515  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1040 PM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
EAST TO WEST SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER            
COUNTIES ALONG A WICHITA FALLS...POST...HOBBS LINE.  SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT WEAKENING AND CELLS ARE MOVING MORE            
IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION DOWN THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH. RUC AND MESOETA               
MODELS CONTINUE A SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS               
ARE SHOWING REDEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE TROUGH.  WILL UPDATE THE                 
ZONES TO LOWER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
TIER COUNTIES AND LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR             
NOW.                                                                            
OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS ARE WRECKING HAVOC ON THE WIND FIELD.                
NOTHING MUCH TO HANG YOUR HAT ON FOR DIRECTION AND SPEED.  KLBB                 
WSR-88D WIND PROFILE SHOWING OUTFLOW FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 4K              
FEET...NORTHWEST AT 5K FEET AND NORTHEAST ABOVE 6K FEET.  BELIEVE               
AFTER THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN THE WIND FIELD WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEAST            
FLOW AND WILL LET THE CURRENT WINDS RIDE FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF                  
FORECAST ON TRACK.                                                              
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
SLW/16                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 240337  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX                                             
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
QUITE A BUSY EVENING WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS ONE              
OF THE BUSIER EVENINGS SINCE LATE SPRING. STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER            
THIS EVENING ACROSS SE NM SENT OUT AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...            
WHICH IS PRESENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE              
TRANS-PECOS REGION...EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY FROM SNYDER...TO                   
CRANE...TO NORTH OF FORT STOCKTON. AFTER SUNSET MOST OF THE STORMS              
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN INTENSITY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS ARE                 
SCT THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH MOST OF THEM               
REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE STORMS EARLIER               
THIS EVENING WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE.                                               
TROF/OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SEEMS TO BE LAYING E-W ACROSS THE               
SRN PLAINS...NORTH OF THE MAF CWA...AS PER SFC OBS AND CONVECTIVE               
TRENDS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT 24            
HOURS. RUC DOES NOT MOVE THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA                           
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN FACT IT LOOKS AS IF THE RUC IS FORECASTING               
THE BOUNDARY TO SAG FURTHER SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER                
TRANS-PECOS REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                       
A LOOK AT THE IR AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A MASS OF CLOUDS AND                
MOISTURE PUSHING NWD AND NWWD OUT OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...REMNANTS OF             
HURRICANE BRET. EARLIER FORECASTS AND MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTED THIS              
MOISTURE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS NRN MEXICO...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT           
AT LEAST PART OF THE SYSTEM'S REMNANTS WILL BE MOVING INTO MAF CWA.             
IF THESE REMNANTS CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA...THIS COULD                    
NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE PRESENT FORECAST FOR TOMORROW. MID SHIFT                  
WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS SITUATION. NOT SURE IF                  
THE MOISTURE FLUX FROM BRET WILL MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO INTERACT           
WITH THE TROF/STALLED BOUNDARY LAYING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS IS A           
POSSIBILITY THAT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED.                                      
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WILL SEND OUT A ZONE UPDATE SHORTLY TO                
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN WINDS/TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. DJK              
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 240216  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
305 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CLOUDS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE FA              
AS EXPECTED. SFC ANALYSIS PLACED HIGH CENTER AROUND PENNSYLVANIA                
WITH LOW PRES IN MN WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. SFC OBS ACROSS              
CWA PAINT A FAMILIAR S-SE UPSLOPE FLOW. KFCX 88D INDICATED SCT                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR SCOPE. MODIFIED RNK SOUNDING               
CREATED AN LI OF MINUS 4 AND A CAPE AROUND 1500. 18Z LAPS DATA                  
INDICATED HIGHER CAPES FROM 1500 TO 2400 DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN              
PORTION OF CWA. MSAS HAD DECENT MSTR CONVGC. AWIPS 5H COMBO SHOWED              
STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER ND-MN DROPS SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 48                
HOURS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES DRIFT ACROSS FA BEFORE THE MAIN ONE              
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABLILITY. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER              
IN MN WITH ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SE. THE ETA AND RUC              
APPEARED BEST WITH THE ONSET OF THE CONVECTION FOR OUR AREA THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING RUN OF THE MODELS TRYING TO MERGE TOGETHER              
ON SIMILIAR SOLUTION. GENERAL TREND OF THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY             
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. TRAINING OF ECHOS              
AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.        
THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMPLICATED BY THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL                 
SYSTEM. ZONES WILL BE OUT AROUND 340 PM. HAVE A GUD NIGHT.                      
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 231444  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1015 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS SRN PDMT OF NC THIS MORNING IS                 
CONFIRMING THE 09Z RUC...WHICH CONTS TO BRING QPF UP INTO OUR SW                
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY. THIS MAKES SENSE LOOKING AT 850 PLOT...WITH            
HIGHER DWPTS WRAPPING UP AND AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK HIGH                 
SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. THIS FLOW IS ALSO                          
CONVERGENT...SO WILL ADD SOME POPS FOR THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NW MTNS             
AND NRN FOOTHILLS OF NC. WILL HOLD OFF EVERYWHERE ELSE.                         
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
 va                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
                                                                                
WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
309 AM MDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
WV IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION               
SHUNTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH           
THIN MID AND HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...GOES SOUNDER              
DATA INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE BORDERING EASTERN UTAH ZONES AND ALSO            
FOUND ALONG CO/NM BORDER AREA. ALL MODELS APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED               
WITH THIS REGIME...THOUGH AVN RH FIELD VALUES HIGHER THAN EITHER THE            
ETA OR THE NGM WHICH APPEARS TO BETTER FIT WITH LATEST IR AND WV                
IMAGERY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 06Z RUC ALSO CLOSER TO AVN AND INDICATED            
MOISTURE TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOUR                
CORNERS WHERE IR SHOWS MID CLOUDS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. OVER EASTERN               
UTAH...APPEARS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP EASTWARD             
DURING THE DAY. RUC ALSO SHOWED WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE                        
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN UTAH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...           
PHASING WITH SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL               
WARMING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST            
UTAH IN ADDITION TO SOUTHEAST. COLORADO ZONES LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY           
DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO WILL LEAVE OUT            
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT MOUNTAIN AND SOUTHERN ZONES                 
TODAY. NORTHWESTERN US SHORTWAVE TO BRUSH NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
CWFA THIS EVENING WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN...SO WILL BRING           
IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CENTRAL               
VALLEYS AS WELL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO END IN THE EVENING WITH SOME              
CLEARING AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MAIN MOISTURE BAND WILL ALIGN               
ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON                 
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO           
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM              
MOS GUIDANCE.                                                                   
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 240901  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
306 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE - POPS                                                       
CURRENTLY - DISSIPATING CONVECTION FROM MCS IS LINGERING OVER NW CWA            
WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS MCS DRIFT SE OVER CWA. WATER VAPOR              
IMAGES SHOW A MINOR UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER S AL ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS CONVECTION. A STRONG VORT MAX FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER UPPER MS               
VALLEY IS DIVING SE.                                                            
TODAY - RUC PROGS MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS E OF CWA BY THIS               
AFTERNOON...PUTTING WRN CWA IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE.             
DEEP LAYER Q-FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VORT MAX TO STAY NW OF              
CWA NEAR PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. MEAN FLOW BELOW 700 MB PROGGED             
TO BE RATHER LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING HIGHEST POPS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE SHOULD STAY AROUND TOPOGRAPHICALLY                   
FAVORED AREAS LIKE AQQ...AS WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. HIGHER POPS                     
JUSTIFIED OVER SE AL CLOSE TO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS AGREE ON               
GENERATING GOOD PRECIPITATION OVER GA AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER                
VORT MAX...SO WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE NRN GA ZONES.                            
TONIGHT - WILL CONTINUE POPS FOR NRN ZONES IN CASE MCS TRIES TO MOVE            
SE INTO CWA AS WAS SEEN MONDAY NIGHT. AGREE WITH LATEST SPC SWODY1              
SUGGESTING THAT MCS SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT AT LEAST AS FAR S AS              
CENTRAL GA/AL.                                                                  
WEDNESDAY - VORT MAX BEGINS TO CUT OFF OVER OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN            
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR CWA. SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO STALL          
JUST NW OF CWA BY THIS TIME AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED TO                
INCREASE. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN TODAY SINCE                   
ADDITIONAL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.                                  
MARINE - NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.                                                
EXTENDED - CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK FINE.                                         
WORK ZONES AND CCF ALREADY OUT. WORK CWF OUT BY 0730Z. THANKS TO                
MOB FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING. INPUT IS ALWAYS WELCOME.                     
TLH  093/072 093/072  4353                                                      
PFN  090/075 089/076  5353                                                      
DHN  092/073 093/071  4353                                                      
ABY  093/072 092/072  5453                                                      
VLD  093/071 092/072  4353                                                      
TJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMLB 240655  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1030 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                     
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTN CENTER AROUND MAX TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.            
12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED MESOLOW OVER SW MO WITH MESOHIGH IN SCNTL MO IN         
ASSOCIATION WITH MCS. HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS OBSCURING SUNSHINE ACROSS           
ERN KY ATTM BUT MORE SUN BREAKING OUT WEST OF I-75. THIS IN AREA OF NVA         
AT 5H. 12Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS             
WITH MOISTURE AT 600 TO 500 MB LAYER. 12Z RUC SHOWS LOW LVL MOISTURE            
INCREASING OVER ERN KY THIS AFTN BUT THINK IT IS TOO FAST. LAST NIGHTS          
MESOETA SEEMED TO BE HANDLING THINGS SLIGHTLY BETTER. IT WAS PRINTING           
LIGHT QPF OVER ERN TN TODAY AND KJKL 88D IS SHOWING LIGHT ECHOES MOVING         
EAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ATTM.                                       
CURULE SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE MTNS THIS AFTN AND WITH SOME             
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY             
WORDING GOING. TEMPS AT BELOW THE 00Z FWC MOS TREND FOR NOW WITH THE            
EXCEPTION OF LEX. WILL LOOK AT 15Z TEMPS AND MAKE A DECISION ON WHETHER         
TO UPDATE ZONES OR NOT TO LOWER HIGHS.                                          
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
WHP                                                                             
 ky                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
230 PM CDT MON AUG 23 1999                                                      
MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A 30 PERCENT-TYPE RAIN EVENT THAT                  
EXTENDS ALONG THE ENTIRE I20 CORRIDOR. NGM FWC NUMBERS ARE 30 PCT...            
AND ETA AND NGM FOUS GIVES QPF OVERNIGHT AT SHV. MAIN FOCUS IS                  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF VORTICITY AXIS AND SURFACE                  
BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MOISTENED UP ACROSS MOST OF CWA EXCEPT             
NEAR LUFKIN WHERE IT ALREADY WAS STICKY. TEMPS ALL MORNING HAVE BEEN            
HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SHOWN THAT RUC POINTS TO DECENT MOISTURE              
FLUX CONVERGENCE FROM FORT SMITH TO WICHITA FALLS THIS EVENING. THIS            
IS INTERESTING IN THAT MY MAIN POPS CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TEXAS                
PORTION OF THE I20 CORRIDOR...WHERE I HAVE A BIT OF A HARD TIME                 
JUSTIFYING CHANCE POPS GIVEN BY THE NGM. MAYBE THE RUC IS ON TO                 
SOMETHING. EVEN SO...CAN THIS SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS MAKE IT FAR                 
ENOUGH SOUTH OVERNIGHT. I THINK I WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AND               
SAY 20 PERCENT FOR GGG/TYR TONIGHT.                                             
20 PCT POPS THIS EVENING NEAR LFK IN CASE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM            
EARLIER CONVECTION TO THE SW. BUT A BREATHING-IN PERIOD OVERNIGHT FROM          
BRET WILL NOT LET CONVECTION LAST LONG THERE THIS EVENING.                      
POSITION OF SFC TROF IS A CONSIDERATION TOMORROW FOR UPPING MAX                 
TEMPS IF IT WEREN/T FOR THE POSBL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WILL GO HIGHER            
THAN GUIDANCE SOUTHERN TIER TUESDAY...AND OVER SRN AR/SE OK. IT IS              
ALONG AND AHEAD OF TROF/FRONT THAT PERHAPS ANOTHER BATHC OF TSTMS               
WILL FIRE...GIVEN THE SLGT RISK FOR FAR NRN LA AND SRN AR ON THE                
SECOND DAY OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF THIS...WILL NOT MENTION            
A /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WORDING. BUT POPS FOR MLU AREA WILL BE THE             
CONSISTENTLY HIGHEST IN MY PRODUCT.                                             
BY 48 HOURS WE WILL HAVE AN UPPER TROF TO NE AND UPPER RIDGE TO NW.             
N/NW FLOW ALOFT ALWAYS HAS POTENTIAL TO SURPRISE US...BUT THERE IS              
ALSO A NORTHERLY FLOW AT SURFACE. THIS CAUSED THE MRF TO DROP POPS              
LOW ENOUGH TO NIL THEM OUT FOR WED AND THURSDAY EXCEPT DOWN SOUTH               
WEDNESDAY. SO SUGGEST EVENING SHIFT ADD THURSDAY TO THE DRY DAYS IN             
THE EXTENDED AND THEN REINTRO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SATURDAY.     17               
PRELIM GUESSES...                                                               
SHV 73/96/72/95 2320                                                            
MLU 73/96/70/95 3330                                                            
TXK 71/97/69/95 3320                                                            
TYR 72/96/70/96 2220                                                            
LFK 74/97/73/96 2322                                                            
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLIX 231917  la                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
100 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR            
AND THE 03Z RUC INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MS THROUGH 700AM. WILL UPDATE THE             
ZONES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD. TEMPS             
LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW WITH WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH.                                  
JAN...                                                                          
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 240337  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY                                            
250 AM MDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
ETA INITIATLZD SVRL WVS AS SEEN ON WAT/VAP THIS MRNG. FIRST WV EXTS             
NE OF FA EARLY TOD WITH WV OVR SE ORE MOVG ACRS ERN ID AND INTO SW              
MT BY MIDDAY. TAIL BRUSHING FAR W WY BY MIDDAY THEN E OF DVD BY                 
AFTN. TRAILG WV TO REACH THE NW CRNR THIS EVG AND ACRS THE N LTR                
TNGHT. UPR FLOW STARTS VEERG TO THE WEST BY THIS AFTN WITH A SHT/WV             
RDG MOVG IN BY WED IN LGHT WESTRLY FLOW ALF WITH LESSER HGHTS THAN              
TODAY. CRRNT FCST ON TRAK WITH TSTMS HOLDG OFF E OF DVD UNTIL THIS              
EVG (XCPT IN THE XTRM N) WITH ONLY ISOLD. IN THE W THOUGH WILL INCRS            
CVRG FOR THIS AFTN/EVG TO SCT...ESPLY NW. MDL QPF BRINGS LGHT AMTS TO           
THE NW CRNT THIS AFTN/EVG WITH NO ACUMM ELSWR. RUC AND MESO-ETA SNDGS           
FCST FOR THIS AFTN HAVE DRY MICRO-BURST POTENTIALS IN THE FAR WEST              
LESS THAN 30KTS. H8 TMPS FCST TO COOL A LTL IN THE NW TODAY WITH TMPS           
OTHRWS FCST TO BE ABT THE SAME FM MON AFTN/S INITILIZATION THRU WED             
AFTN. IN EXTND NEW AVN/MRF KEEPS RIDGE THUR WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS ON            
TRAK WITH CRRT FCST. RWM                                                        
RIW...NONE.                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KCYS 240811  wy                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
309 AM MDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
WV IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION               
SHUNTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH           
THIN MID AND HIGH MOISTURE OVER THE CWFA. MEANWHILE...GOES SOUNDER              
DATA INDICATED DEEPER MOISTURE BORDERING EASTERN UTAH ZONES AND ALSO            
FOUND ALONG CO/NM BORDER AREA. ALL MODELS APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED               
WITH THIS REGIME...THOUGH AVN RH FIELD VALUES HIGHER THAN EITHER THE            
ETA OR THE NGM WHICH APPEARS TO BETTER FIT WITH LATEST IR AND WV                
IMAGERY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 06Z RUC ALSO CLOSER TO AVN AND INDICATED            
MOISTURE TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOUR                
CORNERS WHERE IR SHOWS MID CLOUDS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. OVER EASTERN               
UTAH...APPEARS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO CREEP EASTWARD             
DURING THE DAY. RUC ALSO SHOWED WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE                        
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN UTAH DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY...           
PHASING WITH SHORTWAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL               
WARMING SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST            
UTAH IN ADDITION TO SOUTHEAST. COLORADO ZONES LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY           
DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO WILL LEAVE OUT            
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL BUT MOUNTAIN AND SOUTHERN ZONES                 
TODAY. NORTHWESTERN US SHORTWAVE TO BRUSH NORTHERN PORTION OF THE               
CWFA THIS EVENING WHILE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILL IN...SO WILL BRING           
IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHWEST ALONG WITH CENTRAL               
VALLEYS AS WELL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO END IN THE EVENING WITH SOME              
CLEARING AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. MAIN MOISTURE BAND WILL ALIGN               
ITSELF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON                 
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO           
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAYS SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM              
MOS GUIDANCE.                                                                   
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 240901  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1046 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
IN THE SHORT TERM...SEA BREEZE CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH OVERALL S-SE WIND FLOW. MM5 HAS THIS & WITH A BIT LESS                     
CONVECTION INDICATED. MAX AREA SHOULD AGAIN BE MAINLY WEST OF                   
TLH...SIMILAR TO MON. 12Z TLH SOUNDING HAD PRECIP WATER VALUE A BIT             
LOWER THAN MON...BUT REALLY WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH LOWER AMOUNT OF               
CONVECTION AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL HIGH. LI REMAINS -4 TO -6 &              
CAPE LESS THAN 2000 WHEN MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL                
LAST UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH REMNANTS OF MCS                
NOW OVER NORTHERN AL. RUC DOES WEAKEN IT & TAKE MUCH OF ENERGY TO               
E-NE OF CWA...BUT OUT-FLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SET-UP SOME CONVECTION              
IN CENTRAL TO SRN AL & GA THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. CURRENT POPS &             
TEMP FCST LOOK GOOD. WILL UPDATE FCST FOR COSMETIC CHANGES ONLY.                
MCT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 241432  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
12Z RAOBS/SFC OBS SHOW NRLY VERTICAL CYC OVR IL MOVG SLOWLY ESEWD               
PER WV LOOP. NRN GRT LKS IN UPR/SFC RDG AXIS BTWN THIS CUTOFF LO AND            
MAIN ZONAL FLOW ACRS CNTRL CAN. LATEST SFC OBS/VIS SAT INDICATE                 
PTCHY LO CLD/FOG OVR CWA WITH SFC DWPTS GENERALLY ARND 62. LO CLD IN            
PROCESS OF BURNING OFF WITH LTL IN THE WAY OF HIER CLD IN UPR RDG               
AXIS TO BLOCK STRG AUGUST INSOLATION. 12Z GRB/APX SDNGS SHOW SHALLOW            
NR SFC MSTR BLO RADIATION INVRN AND DRIER AIR WITH LAPSE RATE NR                
MOIST ADIABATIC. 12Z INL SDNG IS SIMILAR IN LO LVLS BUT WITH MUCH               
STRGR MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN FARTHER N OF CUTOFF LO.                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE CLD TRENDS/TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR                  
CNVCTN. 09Z RUC INDICATES H5 HGTS/SFC RDG WL BLD OVR CWA/LK SUP TDAY            
AS STORM TO S SINKS ESEWD. SINCE HIER CLD ASSOCIATED WITH CYC SWIRL             
IN IL WL REMAIN TO S TDAY...XPCT PTCHY FOG/ST TO BURN OFF QUICKLY               
REMAINDER OF MRNG WITH LOTS OF SUN. ALTHOUGH SOME CU WL FORM WITH               
RELATIVELY HI NR SFC DWPTS...DRIER AIR NOTED ABV SHALLOW MSTR LYR ON            
MRNG RAOBS AND INCRSG SUBSIDENCE UNDER BLDG RDG WL RESTRICT ANY DEEP            
CNVCTN ESPECIALLY WITH LACK OF SGNFT BNDRY MORE THAN WEAK LK BREEZE             
CNVGC.                                                                          
WL BUMP UP MAX TEMPS FCST A TAD MOST ZNS GIVEN XPCTD SUNSHINE.                  
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 240806  mi                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
335 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT IN LIGHT            
SLY WIND FLOW THAT WAS BRINGING 1.6-1.9" PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS             
BACK NWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. HIGH LEVEL OUTFLOW MOISTURE FROM               
BRET LEFTOVERS IN TX BIG BEND ALSO HELPING TO SET THE STAGE FOR SOME            
DECENT RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY                 
TONIGHT. ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KMEM TO KLIT SINKING                
SEWD IN AXIS OF DECENT 850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHICH IS                      
MAINTAINED BY 06Z RUC THROUGH MIDDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP                    
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AS NEW CONVECTION               
FIRES DURING THE MORNING.                                                       
A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL DROP INTO KY FROM CENTRAL              
IL TODAY. THIS LOW SHOULD CUTOFF NR TN/KY BORDER WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN            
FILLING BY THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FROM SERN MO               
ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH TO AROUND                 
HIGHWAY 82 BY THIS EVENING. THIS TIMING WILL BE ADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE            
NEEDED RAINS IN NRN PORTIONS TODAY...CENTRAL PORTIONS THIS EVENING              
AND S SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.                             
THE COMBINATION OF 3000-4000 CAPES AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN             
THE 75-125 RANGE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION             
FOR A FEW WIND DAMAGE REPORTS. A MODERATE BAND OF OMEGA WILL ALSO               
HELP THE FORMATION OF SOME WEAK SURFACE WAVES RIDING NEWD ALONG THE             
BOUNDARY. UNTIL WE SEE WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...IT               
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A MENTION OF SEVERE SO WILL WORD IN               
GUSTY NEAR STORMS FOR NOW.                                                      
SOME DRYING OUT EXPECTED N OF INTERSTATE TWENTY WEDNESDAY EVENING               
BUT THE STALLED UPPER TROF AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE                
WEEKEND TO KEEP SOME DIURNAL CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.              
QPF DISCUSSION: INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WITH                
COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING           
OVER MAINLY N HALF AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL                  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH              
THIS EVENING. THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTION SHOULD BE THIS EVENING IN              
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL PUT IN AN AVERAGE .75           
INCH QPF FOR THE CENTRAL... .50 INCH QPF FOR THE NORTH AND .50 INCH             
FOR THE SOUTH THROUGH 24 HOURS...GENERALLY SIMILAR TO NCEP.                     
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 240607  ms                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
930 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE UPPER LO WOBBLING ACROSS IL               
THIS MORNING. S/WVS CIRCULATING AROUND THE LO ARE HARDER TO PICK OUT            
BUT APPEARS ONE IS BEGINNING ITS TREK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NOW. BOTH            
THE LATEST RUC & MESO-ETA RUNS WEAKEN THIS VORT FURTHER. BUT WHEN               
COMBINED W/ A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE (MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS GIVE LIS -2             
TO -5) & MOIST (PWS 1.2-1.9) AIRMASS...IT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT            
TO PRODUCE SCT TRW W/ MAX HEATING. ACTIVITY OFF THE CAPE FEAR CST IS            
ADVECTING IN ON LO-LVL ONSHORE FLOW SO WILL RAISE POPS ALONG THE CST TO         
CHC AREA. GOING COASTAL TEMPS AGREE W/ LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE & WILL              
CONTINUE BUT WILL JACK UP TEMPS CLOSER TO LAMP INLAND WHERE MORE SUN            
THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW A LITTLE MORE HEATING.                                  
CWF: HI PRES OFF THE NJ CST ALLOWING FOR A NERLY OR ERLY FLOW THIS              
MORNING W/ CSTL MTRS/OMR/BOYDAT SHOWING MAINLY NE WINDS. WILL DECIDE            
ON INITIAL DIRECTION BASED ON OBS AROUND 15Z. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES              
PLANNED.                                                                        
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KRAH 240650  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1020 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND CLD TRENDS.             
SFC HIGH SITUATED OVR FA ATTM. WK SHORT WAVE FROM WV LOOP OVR                   
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVR RIDGE TODAY. FROM               
RUC TIME SECTIONS AND 12Z UA ANALYSIS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOIST                
EXCEPT FOR LOWEST 150MB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE COLUMN QUITE DRY.             
SO OTHER THAN SCT CU DEVELOPMENT RESULTING FROM CU RULES SHOULD SEE             
PLENTY OF SOLAR AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER                    
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W. THIS HANDLED WELL BY ONGOING FCST AND WITH TEMPS           
ABOUT AS EXPECTED ONLY CHANGES ATTM WILL BE LIFTING MENTION OF AM               
BR.                                                                             
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 240821  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1011 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTED FROM WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING          
CWFA...DRIVING SIZABLE BATCH OF RAIN & EMBEDDED CONVECTION.  09Z RUC            
& 03Z ETA SUPPORT EARLIER MODEL TRENDS OF SHEARING THIS FEATURE &               
IT'S ASSOCIATED OMEGA BULLSEYE EASTWARD THRU THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE             
LARGER PICTURE...PERSISTENT MOIST SSE LLVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO                
COMBINE WITH MODERATE LARGE SCALE FORCING & UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO                 
WARRANT A CONTINUATION OF HIGH POPS.  CURRENT 88D TRENDS INDICATE               
AT LEAST LIKELY COVERAGE REDEVELOPING IN WAKE OF S/WV...ACROSS                  
NE GA. IN ADDITION...LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH APPROACH OF                    
MAIN UPPER LOW...Q-VECT FORCING & LLVL FLOW CONVERGENCE INCREASES               
...ACROSS THE MTNS. STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WRING                 
OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH 12Z GSO SNDG PW NEARING 150% OF NORM.                   
CONVECTIVE PCPN TOTALS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON YSTDY HAS PRODUCED                  
SCATTERED 2-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACRS WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF                   
THE CWFA.  LOCALIZED FLDG THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN APPARENT                 
THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING...BUT UNABLE TO NARROW DOWN AN AREA                    
WHICH HAD ENOUGH WIDESPREAD RNFL THIS AM IN CONJUNCTION WITH                    
THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE NEXT COMPLEX OF CONVECTIVE RNFL                    
WILL DEVELOP TO WARRANT PLACEMENT OF FFA AT THIS TIME.                          
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 241403  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
317 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING RIDGING OVR AREA AS S/W APCHS. MODELS NOT IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF S/WS. NGM HANGS VORT MAX OVR THE CWA AS           
ETA EJECTS IT OUT OVR ILM. 03Z RUC IN LINE WITH NGM IN TRYING TO KEEP           
S/W OVRHEAD TDY...ALSO TRIES TO INDICATE A WDGE TYPE PATTERN...KEEPING          
DRY AIR IN OVR THE MIDLANDS. AVN KICKS LEAD S/W EWD BUT HANGS SECONDARY         
S/W OVR THE CWA THRU TNGT. RUC NOT INITIALIZING SECONDARY S/W VERY WELL         
BUT TSRA CLUSTER OVR SRN GA INDICATIVE OF SOMETHING. NOT SURE HOW TO            
HANDLE THIS SRN S/W...CURRENT MVMT IS E. SHRA DEV IN ASSOC WITH LEAD S/W        
OVR NRN GA/WRN NC IS DYING OUT OVR SC BUT WILL PROBABLY HOLD TOGETHER AS        
S/W MOVES THRU TDY. RUC PRACTICALLY CLEARS US OUT TDY AS MESO ETA               
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. WILL GO WITH PROGRESSIVE ETA AND DRY           
THINGS UP A BIT. WILL CUT BACK POPS OVR CWA AND INCR OVR PIEDMONT AS            
MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS REMAINED W OF THE AREA. ALSO NGM IS HOLDING              
PRECIP BACK TO THE W OVR CSRA AND ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT.             
LOOKS LIKE OHIO VLY FRONT WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME GETTING HERE BUT WILL        
KEEP AN EYE FOR WED AND THURS. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO DENNIS          
AS THE WEEK GOES ON. WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BUT NOT QUITE AS           
WARM AS FWC.                                                                    
PRELIM CCF                                                                      
CAE TB 089/072/088 343                                                          
AGS TB 089/070/091 533                                                          
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
JDB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 240523  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPINS ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH CONVECTION                  
BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN IN. CURRENT FORECAST ON TARGET AND NO                  
UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. MESO-ETA HAS A JET MAX MOVING ACROSS              
TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER                   
DIVERGENCE. AS THE 50H LOW SPINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THERE WILL BE             
GOOD 50H PVA... 50H TEMPS DROP TO -8 OR -9 C... AND 50H WINDS                   
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KTS. THE MESO-ETA ALSO INDICATES GOOD QVECTOR              
CONVERGENCE WITH THIS UPPER LOW. THE DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE             
FOR A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER.                                                 
MODIFIED BNA 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES CAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. 12Z RUC             
SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE BETWEEN 2000 TO 2700 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON                
AND EVENING ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF             
SUNSHINE... AS LOW CLOUDS WERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AND AN                    
ADVANCING ANVIL ACROSS SOUTHERN TN.  THINK THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL             
SLOWLY LIFT INTO BKN CU THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CI FROM THE ANVIL             
IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES MAY BE STARTING TO BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION             
ACROSS MS... AND THEN MAY THIN.  THE MAIN THING THAT THE ANVIL WILL             
DO WILL BE TO CREATE ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS MIDDLE TN... AS                    
NORTHERN MIDDLE TN HAS RECEIVED NEARLY FULL SUN THIS MORNING. THINK             
THAT THE CONVECTION WILL START IN MIDDLE TN... CLOSER TO THE LOW                
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ALSO WHERE THE BEST              
INSTABILITY WILL BE... AND THEN MOVE INTO EAST TN. THE MAIN THREAT              
WILL BE WINDS AS BNA SOUNDING IS FAIRLY DRY ABOVE 600 MB...AND WATER            
VAPOR INDICATED A GOOD MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH COMING INTO TN. WILL ALSO            
KEEP THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN... AS THE 80H THETA-E RIDGE REMAINS              
OVER EAST TN THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF THE NIGHT... AND THE PRECIP             
WATERS WILL BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES.                                               
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
RBP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 241441  tn                                      

WAKEFIELD FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1014 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
DSCN: LTST SATL/RDR IMAGERY AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH 12Z RUC...AS S/W            
VORT MAX OVR CHES BAY LIFTS SLOWLY NEWD TODAY...AND AREA OF NVA OVR             
S CNTRL VA THIS MORNG WEAKENS...WL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT MORE OF P            
SUNNY FCST...WITH MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S. SCTD SHWRS DVLPG IN              
WRN CWA THIS AFTN...AND PSBLY REDVLPG FAR NERN CWA IN VCNTY OF S/W.             
CWF...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.                                                   
.AKQ...NONE.                                                                    
HESS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 240744 COR  va                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1020 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED             
SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS MORNING... SLOWLY MOVING TO THE              
SOUTHEAST.  ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONTINUE             
TO BE THE CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.                                            
12Z LAPS SOUNDING COMPARISONS INDICATE THAT THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WERE             
TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LAYERS.  12Z RUC DOES SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON             
THE MOISTURE AND IT FORECASTS CONTINUATION OF HIGH MOISTURE IN THE              
LOWER LAYERS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS            
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND LIKELIHOOD THAT AREA WILL SEE SOME SUN            
LOOKS POOR... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.  THIS            
CLOUDINESS  WILL ALSO INHIBIT TEMPERATURE RISES THIS AFTERNOON.  WILL           
UPDATE CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.                               
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 241501 AMD  wi                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
339 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
MAIN FOCUS WL BE ON SLOW EXIT OF UPR LOW FM RGN AND LINGERING PCPN.             
CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ROTATING NWD FM IL INTO SRN WI AROUND UPR           
LOW...LOCATED NR KDVN AT 06Z AS SHWN ON SATELLITE IR LOOPS. ACTIVITY            
DVLPG ALONG AXIS OF SCNDRY H8 THERMAL RDG...DEPICTED BY 03Z RUC. SFC            
DEW PTS IN THE 60S...WITH MSAS LI/S OF -1 TO -2...AHD OF SFC COLD FNT           
PUSHING INTO W CNTRL IL.                                                        
VIGOROUS UPR LOW WL BE CENTERED OVR CNTRL IN BY 00Z...MAKING LTL EWD            
PROGRESS AS NRLY STACKED SYSTM REACHES WRN OH AT 48 HRS. UPR RDG TO             
WEST FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT WAVE AS IT MOV INTO NRN PLAINS.               
RESULT IS A GNRLY CYCLONIC EAST TO NE FLOW OVR SRN WI THRU PD. BUFKIT           
MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP COLUMN MOIST THRU LATE AFTN IN MSN...AND 06Z IN            
MKE. NCEP MODELS HAVE 60 TO 70 PCT RH AT H7 THRU 00Z THU IN EAST.               
MORNING SHRA/TSRA WL DIMINISH IN WEST..WITH CHC THIS AFTN. WL KPSCT             
SHRA GOING FOR TDY ERN AREAS...AND EXTND CHC INTO EVE. WITH LINGERING           
MID LVL MOISTURE...WL SLOW CLEARING OF CLD DECK...ESPCLY IN THE EAST            
TNT AND WED. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN SHUD HOLD TEMPS CLOSER TO COOLER              
FAN GUIDNC AND FWC 3 HRLY TEMPS.                                                
COORD WITH ARX AND GRB                                                          
.UWNMS...NOT AVBL.                                                              
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
REM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KARX 240802  wi                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
IN SHORT TERM...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED              
FROM NEAR GREENVILLE TO HATTIESBURG WHILE A SLOW SE MOVING COLD FRONT           
EXTENDS ACROSS SRN AR/NRN MS. AIRMASS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THESE              
FEATURES REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL                
THETAE ADV INTO REGION...EXPECT CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THERE AS             
WE PROGRESS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS OF NOW...AM PLANNING TO PUT              
HI CHC POPS IN FOR SOUTHWEST COUTIES/PARISHES FOR EVENING ACTIVITY.             
18Z RUC PICKS UP ON WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND             
UPPER LOW AND INTO NRN MS BY LATE EVENING. ASSUMING THAT AIRMASS CAN            
RECOVER A LITTLE FROM EARLIER MCS...EXPECT THAT SOME SHOWER/TSTM                
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP OVER NE/E COUNTIES. SO WILL PUT SMALL POPS              
IN THERE.                                                                       
FOR WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT...MODELS PROG THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT TO                
CONTINUE DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF FORECAST        
AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION PUSHES                       
EAST...SUBISIDENCE WILL TAKE OVER IN MID LEVELS WITH PRECIP WATER               
VALUES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTH OF            
THE SFC FRONT...MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH...PARTICULARLY            
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. SO WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN FOR SE MS              
TOMORROW WITH LESSER POPS FURTHER NORTHWEST IN SOMEWHAT DRIER MORE              
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME                 
HEATING DURING EVENING.                                                         
FOR THURSDAY...DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINE TO INFILTRATE FORECAST AREA             
WITH SFC FRONT BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE              
SOME MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WIDELY SCT AFTN TSTM             
DEVELOPMENT. WILL PUT SMALL POPS IN THERE.                                      
QPF DISCUSSION: WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT IN CENTRAL                 
MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. IN WARM HUMID AIR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...                     
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN FIRST PERIOD. BY                 
SECOND PERIOD...MOST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF                
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS THIS EVENING WILL HAVE RAINFALL             
AMOUNTS MORE THAN ONE INCH...OVERALL AVERAGE AREAL QPF SHOULD RXAIN             
BELOW .50 INCH IN SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF PROGGIX UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN DOMINANT OVER                
WRN/CNTRL U.S WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND EAST              
SIDE OF HIGH. MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROGGED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED                
ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CHCS OF AFTN/EVENING TSTM             
ACTIVITY THROUGH PERIOD.                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
43/15                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 241625  ms                                      

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT                                            
245 PM MDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING PLAGUED BY DRY BUG IN EARLY PERIODS. NOT           
MUCH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN RUNS IN SHORT TERM EITHER. BEST MODELS FOR             
TONIGHT PERIOD SEEM TO BE THE LATEST RUC AND 03Z ETA FROM LAST                  
EVENING. FIRST SHORTWAVE ROTATED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH EARLY                   
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SPRINKLES EXCEPT FOR CLOSER TO THE ID PANHANDLE             
...GUSTS OVER 30KT ALSO ON A FEW RAWS SITES. DRYING ON WATER VAPOR              
SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN MT THROUGH 20Z BROUGHT AMPLE SURFACE HEATING           
TO THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA. CUMULUS/STORMS BUILDING RAPIDLY IN THIS             
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT OVER ID ZONES. SHORTWAVE TRIGGER NEAR KBKE            
AT 19Z ON-TRACK TO SHIFT ACROSS CWA ALONG WITH INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL            
WINDS...THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH            
THE EVENING HOURS. NEARBY 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE INVERTED-V PROFILE AND             
EXPECT FIRST BATCH OF STORMS TO HAVE STRONG WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING.            
WILL GO WITH ETA FOR LATER PERIODS. SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF DIVIDE             
THIS EVENING AS UPPER WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES...WILL END T-STORMS BY            
MIDNIGHT AS CONDITIONS STABILIZE. VERY STRONG WESTERLY JET ADVANCING            
ACROSS THE PAC ENTERS SOUTHERN BC ON WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW AND AN             
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SUPPORT                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS. WINDS OF 40KT AT H7 AND TIGHT                
SURFACE GRADIENT TOMORROW FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY                     
MOUNTAINS. RIDGING REBOUNDS ON THURSDAY WITH CA COASTAL LOW LOOKING             
ALL TOO FAMILIAR.  BOLDT                                                        
EXTENDED...MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN FRIDAY AS CA LOW EJECTS WEAK                
SYSTEM NORTHWARD. LOOKS FAIRLY DRY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE MAJOR              
PAC TROUGH EDGING INLAND SUNDAY.                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGGW 242029  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
217 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
DISC:  18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS HI PRES TO OUR NE AND SFC LOW OVR THE MIDWEST.        
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLDS ACRS THE SE THIS AFT. SOME SUN ACRS EXTREME        
SRN SC AND SRN GA. REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS SHRA/TSRA FM SC SWWD          
TO AL. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS OF MOVG              
CLOSED LOW EWD ACRS THE OH VALLEY THRU THE PD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO           
WEAKEN AND LIFT NE BEYOND 48 HRS. AT THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRNTL           
BNDRY WL MOV SLOWLY EWD TO JUST W OF THE MTS. BUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT             
HOURS...MODELS A BIT DIFFERENT IN PROGRESS OF S/W THAT IS NOW PRODUCING         
THE PCPN ACRS THE SE. RUC/ETA SHOW S/W MOVG ACRS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TO         
THE ERN PTN OF THE STATE BY MORNING. ONCE S/W MOVG ACRS STATE AIRMASS           
BEGINS TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT. A DESCENT AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE IS             
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS SHOWN BY TIME SECTIONS. ETA SHOWING GOOD AREA OF          
UVV MOVG ACRS STATE TON. WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS TON THEN         
LWR TO SML CHC FOR WED.                                                         
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
LCV                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 241746 COR  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
145 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
UPPER LOW TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E THROUGH 48 HOURS...OPENING UP                    
AND LIFTING OUT BY 72 HOURS. TIME SECTIONS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE                   
UNTIL 06-12Z WED WHEN HIGH/MID LEVELS DRY AND LIFT ENDS. RUC SHOWS              
MID LEVEL DRYING BEGINNING THIS EVENING. WED-THU HAVE WEAK                      
DOWNWARD MOTION WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MOIST. EXPECT WEAK                    
STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN S OF AREA WHILE DECAYING. RIDGE NOT FAR              
ENOUGH OFFSHORE WED TO ALLOW WINDS TO COME AROUND TO S...BEST BET               
IS NE WED. WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS WED SINCE DVV ARRRIVES                   
LATER IN DAY AND MORNING MAY REMAIN ACTIVE. CLOUDS HOLD WED/WED                 
NIGHT WITH NE FLOW. THU MORE COMPLEX AS MODELS BRING REMNANTS OF                
COLD FRONT CROSS AREA EARLY...WHILE AVN/MRF BRING TROPICAL SYSTEM               
UP FROM BAHAMAS. FWC HAS E WIND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE CLOUDS                 
AND POPS INDICATIVE OF PERSISTANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAXIMUMS                  
TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY AS CLOUDS THIN/BREAK. MINIMUMS                    
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REAMINS HIGH.                        
AVL 64/76/63/82 7533                                                            
CLT 67/79/67/86 7533                                                            
GSP 68/80/67/87 7533                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 241745  sc                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
210 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 1999                                                      
MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. REMNANTS OF BRET                 
CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM CWA REDUCING THE THREAT OF RAIN.             
WILL NOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE STILL IN               
PLACE. PWATS PROGD TO DECREASE OVER NEXT 48 HRS AS MID AND UPPER                
LEVEL HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO S TX. TIME CROSS SECTIONS ALSO                 
INDICATE DRYING AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND                
BECOMING SELY AT THESE LEVELS. SFC WINDS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15KT               
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS THE                
CWA. SFC WINDS PROGD TO REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME THROUGH WEDNESDAY.            
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 90S OVER A MAJORITY OF CWA. SEA             
BREEZE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE             
STILL IN PLACE FOR WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE ARE BACK TO OUR NORMAL              
SUMMER TIME FORECAST.                                                           
EXTENDED...MRF PROGS UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO DIP INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH             
SFC FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO SE TX BY SATURDAY. MAY AFFECT N CWA              
WITH CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZE. MRF ALSO PROGS WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TO            
MOVE INTO MEXICO S OF BRO. CURRENT IR SATELLITE AND RUC SHOW WEAK               
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR YUCATAN MOVING WEST. SLIGHT CHANCE OF              
PRECIP IN EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.                                          
MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.                 
CRP BB 076/092 076/095 075 2211                                                 
VCT BB 074/095 075/096 074 2211                                                 
LRD BB 074/091 075/095 074 2211                                                 
BML.76/TP.81/BSB.91                                                             
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KLUB 241901  tx