AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1015 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
REWORKING TONIGHTS FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIPITATION PATTERN.           
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS                    
REMAINING. RUC SHOWING MOST UNSTABLE AIR SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST PART OF          
CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT               
AREA OTHERWISE 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS REST OF NIGHT EXCEPT                
IN SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA WHERE WILL DROP MENTION OF ANY                         
PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG IN SINCE GOOD PORTION OF                
CWA HAD SOME RAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE.                   
&&                                                                              
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 PM EST MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH              
SKIES CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG              
AROUND AND JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WHICH WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY.                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH             
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND             
NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE                   
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS                 
PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO              
FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER             
SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS                   
CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER                
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM.              
H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS                
INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM                 
NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S.               
MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL             
MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE            
IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.            
MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO              
THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE               
FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT              
MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE               
AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.             
HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT               
IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND              
MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE               
FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A             
RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY              
AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH                      
CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES              
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE              
TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES            
IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING               
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
230 PM EST MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH             
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND             
NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE                   
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS                 
PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO              
FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER             
SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS                   
CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER                
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM.              
H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS                
INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM                 
NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S.               
MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL             
MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE            
IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.            
MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO              
THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE               
FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT              
MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE               
AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.             
HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT               
IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND              
MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE               
FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A             
RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY              
AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH                      
CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES              
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE              
TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES            
IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING               
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL                 
RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND SFC HIGH WILL BE NEARLY                   
STATIONARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. RESULT WILL BE VFR                     
CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCT CU DECK AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND            
12KTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR SKIES WINDS LT 10KTS FOR                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WAMSLEY/LOGSDON/FISHER                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
952 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL AGAIN AND              
IF THERE WILL BE ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS NEAR               
THE MCV.                                                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING AN ILL DEFINED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE             
VORT (MCV) SITTING IN EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. THIS VORT CONTINUES TO            
INDUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. PROFILER TRENDS                
OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE FLOW VEERING OUT BETWEEN 2             
AND 4KM IN EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AS A RESULT, I AM             
A BIT HESITANT TO YANK OUT POPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. BOTH THE                   
RUC/ETA ARE ALSO DEPICTING SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THAT REGION               
OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY STIR UP A SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS              
MAY INVADE US AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND TAKE CEILINGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR              
CATEGORY. WOULD EXPECT THE CIGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY                  
SOMETIME AFTER 08Z.                                                             
COX                                                                             
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
330 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
CONCERNS TDY INCLUDE PRECIP CHC TNGT IN SERN KS, TEMPS AND PRECIP               
CHCS AGAIN THU.                                                                 
TNGT: PESKY MCV FLOATING ACROSS ERN OK PRODUCING WDLY SCT SHRA AS IT            
SLOWLY MOVES NE INTO SERN KS. RUC/M-ETA TAKES THIS VORT MAX ACROSS              
SERN KS THIS EVE.  WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME MID LEVEL            
SUPPORT, WILL INSERT SOME LOW POPS IN SERN KS FOR A WDLY SCT SHRA               
CHC. MODELS DO SHOW THIS MVC WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE, SO WILL SEE              
SCT SHRA CHC COME TO AN END BY EARLY WED.  WE'LL SEE MOSTLY CLR                 
SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE                
AREA.                                                                           
TUE-WED: SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS SERN KS ON TUES AND WED             
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAP BREAKING DOWN IN THE AFTN                
HOURS. SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE WDLY SCT SHRA IN SERN KS AGAIN BOTH            
DAYS. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE SO WILL GO WITH                
LOWER POPS IN THE NIGHTTIME, HIGHER DURING THE DAY.  CLOUDS ASSOC               
WITH THE SHEAR ZONE COULD MAKE TEMPS RATHER TRICKY WITH AREAS WITH              
LESS CLOUDS 5 DEGS WARMER OF COURSE. GUID TEMPS VARY WIDELY BUT                 
PREFER TO GO WITH COOLER NUMBERS EAST AND WARMER ONES WEST WITH                 
CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES.                                                        
THU-THU NIGHT: MODELS SIMILAR WITH BRINGING THE ROCKIES S/WV INTO               
THE PLAINS BY LATE THU AFTN, WITH A NICE DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS              
WRN KS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT SHEAR PROFILES AND             
INSTABILITY SUGGEST SVR WX THREAT FOR WRK SECTION BY THE EVE HOURS.             
WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS STARTING THU EVE AS THIS SYS             
MOVES ACROSS KS INTO FRI.                                                       
FRI-MON: SFC SYSTEM STALL OUTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND                  
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.                     
IMPULSES HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN THE GREATEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL             
BE, SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS THROUGH SUN. ECM SHOWS SYSTEM PUSHING              
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK ON MON WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKING                     
HOLD...SO WILL END POPS ON MON WITH THIS IN MIND.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA         72  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
NEWTON          71  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  10                                
ELDORADO        71  90  70  88 /  10  10  10  10                                
STROTHER FIELD  72  91  71  86 /  10  10  10  20                                
RUSSELL         70  97  69  92 /  10   5  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      71  96  70  91 /  10   5  10  10                                
SALINA          72  95  71  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       71  93  70  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     72  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
CHANUTE         70  85  69  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
IOLA            70  84  69  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/KETCHAM                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
330 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONCERNS TDY INCLUDE PRECIP CHC TNGT IN SERN KS, TEMPS AND PRECIP               
CHCS AGAIN THU.                                                                 
TNGT: PESKY MCV FLOATING ACROSS ERN OK PRODUCING WDLY SCT SHRA AS IT            
SLOWLY MOVES NE INTO SERN KS. RUC/M-ETA TAKES THIS VORT MAX ACROSS              
SERN KS THIS EVE.  WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SOME MID LEVEL            
SUPPORT, WILL INSERT SOME LOW POPS IN SERN KS FOR A WDLY SCT SHRA               
CHC. MODELS DO SHOW THIS MVC WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NE, SO WILL SEE              
SCT SHRA CHC COME TO AN END BY EARLY WED.  WE'LL SEE MOSTLY CLR                 
SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE                
AREA.                                                                           
TUE-WED: SHEAR ZONE CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS SERN KS ON TUES AND WED             
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAP BREAKING DOWN IN THE AFTN                
HOURS. SO EXPECT A REPEAT OF THE WDLY SCT SHRA IN SERN KS AGAIN BOTH            
DAYS. MOST OF THE SHRA WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE SO WILL GO WITH                
LOWER POPS IN THE NIGHTTIME, HIGHER DURING THE DAY.  CLOUDS ASSOC               
WITH THE SHEAR ZONE COULD MAKE TEMPS RATHER TRICKY WITH AREAS WITH              
LESS CLOUDS 5 DEGS WARMER OF COURSE. GUID TEMPS VARY WIDELY BUT                 
PREFER TO GO WITH COOLER NUMBERS EAST AND WARMER ONES WEST WITH                 
CLOUD COVER DIFFERENCES.                                                        
THU-THU NIGHT: MODELS SIMILAR WITH BRINGING THE ROCKIES S/WV INTO               
THE PLAINS BY LATE THU AFTN, WITH A NICE DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS              
WRN KS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, BUT SHEAR PROFILES AND             
INSTABILITY SUGGEST SVR WX THREAT FOR WRK SECTION BY THE EVE HOURS.             
WILL KEEP POPS GOING IN MOST LOCATIONS STARTING THU EVE AS THIS SYS             
MOVES ACROSS KS INTO FRI.                                                       
FRI-MON: SFC SYSTEM STALL OUTS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND                  
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.                     
IMPULSES HARD TO PIN DOWN WHEN THE GREATEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL             
BE, SO WILL GO WITH LOW POPS THROUGH SUN. ECM SHOWS SYSTEM PUSHING              
FURTHER SOUTH INTO OK ON MON WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING TAKING                     
HOLD...SO WILL END POPS ON MON WITH THIS IN MIND.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA         72  92  71  89 /  10  10  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      71  93  70  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
NEWTON          71  92  70  88 /  10  10  10  10                                
ELDORADO        71  90  70  88 /  10  10  10  10                                
STROTHER FIELD  72  91  71  86 /  10  10  10  20                                
RUSSELL         70  97  69  92 /  10   5  10  10                                
GREAT BEND      71  96  70  91 /  10   5  10  10                                
SALINA          72  95  71  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       71  93  70  90 /  10   5  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     72  86  71  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
CHANUTE         70  85  69  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
IOLA            70  84  69  85 /  20  20  20  20                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
22/KETCHAM                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1117 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 5H RDG OVER THE UPPER GREAT                       
LAKES...WITH A POTENT SHRTWV TROUGH LIFTING NE THROUGH MANITOBA.  AT            
THE SFC...THERE WAS LOW PRES OVER WRN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT                 
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MN INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND A WARM FRONT                   
EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SRN ONTARIO. UNDER STG UPR RDG WE REMAINED               
CAPPED IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C OFF 00Z              
RAOBS.                                                                          
SO DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES OF              
7.5-8C/KM...LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM AND 700 MB CAP SHOULD CONTINUE            
TO KEEP MOST OF UPR MI DRY OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE 00Z RUC HAS BETTER                
HANDLE ON MID LVL CAP AND DRYNESS ALOFT THAN 00Z ETA SO HAVE                    
FOLLOWED IT FOR FCST DETAILS. RUC SHOWS CAP ERODING SOMEWHAT OVER THE           
WEST LATE TONIGHT AS SERIES OF WK SHRTWV RIDE UP BACKSIDE OF UPR RDG            
AND BRING SFC BNDRY CLOSER TO AREA. SO WILL KEEP IN CHC OF TSRA OVER WRN        
ZONES LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT 09Z. BACKED OFF TO SLGT CHC OF TSRA             
OVER MQT-BARAGA AND IRON-DICKINSON COUNTIES AND EAST MAINLY TOWARD              
SUNRISE.                                                                        
GIVEN SRLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT AND DWPNTS               
STILL IN MID TO UPPER 60S BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF                           
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ALONG DWNSLPG AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.                   
VOSS                                                                            
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUE...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION/MCS INTO NW UPR MI AND LK SUPERIOR              
TO FADE DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A              
LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH                   
DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SBCAPES TO RECOVER INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG             
RANGE (T/TD  OF AROUND 84/68) AND PRESENCE OF DECENT FOCUS FOR                  
CONVECTION WITH LOW LVL CONV VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC TROF REINFORCED             
BY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT TSTMS TO FLARE UP IN THE                     
AFTERNOON INLAND FORM IWD/ONTONAGON TOWARD MARQUETTE ONTO KERY WHICH            
WILL SAG INTO SRN UPR MI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL              
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH                 
MODERATE TO WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL PRFL AND 0-6KM VALUES TO ONLY 25-30             
KT. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME                  
PULSE-LIKE CELLS IN TSTM CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EVEN THOUGH             
WBZERO HGTS NEAR 11K FT AND FZLVL NEAR 13.5K FT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH.              
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE AREA AS             
THE SFC BNDRY FCST TO SLIDE FARTHER TO THE S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES             
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES. THE ETA/UKMET SUGGEST MAIN PCPN BAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY            
S OF UPR MI WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT MORE GENEROUS 850-500 RH              
AND QPF ACRS UPR MI. MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD BE WEAK SHRTWVS              
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WEAK 900-700 FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTED BY            
UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH                
LACK OF MDL CONSENSUS ON SUCH MECHANISMS OR QPF...HAVE TAPERED BACK             
POPS SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED             
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GFS MUCAPE OF 300-800 J/KG                     
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE S 2/3 OF UPR MI...EXPECT ONLY               
ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IF AREA OF SHRA DEVELOPS.                                   
REST OF WED INTO THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH NNE             
FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF            
LK SUPERIOR. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE BUT ADJUSTED A BIT                
COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                                                        
FRI THROUGH MON...MDLS SUGGEST WRN CONUS TROF WILL PROGRESS TOWARD              
THE GRT LAKES. WHILE 00Z/12Z GFS HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH            
TIMING...SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE               
MEAN...EXPECT SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE             
FOR PCPN ON FRI WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER THE                 
WEST HLF WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS              
AND ANY LEAD SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE TROF. DRIER ACYC FLOW SHOULD             
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES FRI OVER THE EAST. FROM FRI NIGHT INTO                       
SAT...BETTER SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED WITH MORE FAVORABLE                   
DYNAMICS AS MID LVL AND SFC TROF APPROACHES. SOME TRAILING SHRTWV               
ENERGY LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP SOME SCT -SHRA OR TSRA                 
GOING. HOWEVER...BY LATER SUN INTO MON FCST LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF             
06Z/12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BUILD HIGH PRES FROM CNTRL            
CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO UPR MI WITH             
WITH COOL AIR DOMINATING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SFC ENE FLOW.                  
JLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE UPPER             
GREAT LAKES...WITH A POTENT TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA.            
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCT-BKN CU IN THE CENTRAL U P...SKIES ARE            
MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE WARM FRONT HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND LEFT US IN THE             
WARM SECTOR. IT IS A VERY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AS WELL...WITH 700MB               
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 11-12C. SO DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY...              
LACK OF FORCING MECHANISM HAS KEPT OUR WX BENIGN EXCEPT FOR                     
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN                   
CENTRAL MN...ON NWRN EDGE OF STRONG CAP. 18Z KINL SOUNDING                      
INDICATIVE OF THE CAP...SHOWING TEMPS AT 750MB OF 17C. RUC APPEARS              
TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ETA TOO COOL            
AT MID LEVELS.                                                                  
AS APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE                   
WIDESPREAD IN NRN/CENTRAL MN AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WOULD            
THEN EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE             
INTO THE WESTERN U P BY MIDNIGHT OR SO...AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...            
AIDED BY 50KT H8 WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RESPONSE              
TO DEPARTING JET IN ONTARIO. LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO TAP INTO AS                 
WELL... WITH BUILDING MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3K J/KG IN THE                  
WESTERN U P LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG. SO DESPITE CAP AND GREATER DYNAMICS            
TO OUR NORTH (WE WILL BE ON ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 80-90KT H5                     
JET)...WOULD EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO SPILL ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW              
OVERNIGHT (PER 1000-500MB THICKNESSES). WILL ALSO RAISE POPS TO                 
LIKELY OVER WRN/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WELL AS THE KEWEENAW...AS                
THEY WILL BE IN REGION OF STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND SHOULD SEE              
THE CAP ERODE SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LEAST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN            
THE SE (LAKE MICHIGAN BORDERING ZONES).                                         
WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY IN THE               
WEST/NORTHWEST WHERE SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST (0-6KM BULK SHEAR TO 30             
KTS).                                                                           
HAVE NOT DEVIATED FAR FROM GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TEMPS...WITH DEWPTS IN             
LOWER/MID 60S AND SOME WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS OUT               
WEST MAY NOT DROP BELOW 70F...BUT GENERALLY AM EXPECTING LOWS IN THE            
50S. MARINE FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF               
THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT.                                                        
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUE...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION/MCS INTO NW UPR MI AND LK SUPERIOR              
TO FADE DURING THE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A              
LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH                   
DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING SBCAPES TO RECOVER INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG             
RANGE (T/TD  OF AROUND 84/68) AND PRESENCE OF DECENT FOCUS FOR                  
CONVECTION WITH LOW LVL CONV VCNTY OF WEAKENING SFC TROF REINFORCED             
BY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...EXPECT TSTMS TO FLARE UP IN THE                     
AFTERNOON INLAND FORM IWD/ONTONAGON TOWARD MARQUETTE ONTO KERY WHICH            
WILL SAG INTO SRN UPR MI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR WILL              
BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH                 
MODERATE TO WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL PRFL AND 0-6KM VALUES TO ONLY 25-30             
KT. GIVEN ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME                  
PULSE-LIKE CELLS IN TSTM CLUSTERS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EVEN THOUGH             
WBZERO HGTS NEAR 11K FT AND FZLVL NEAR 13.5K FT ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH.              
TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ZONAL FLOW REMAINS THROUGH THE AREA AS             
THE SFC BNDRY FCST TO SLIDE FARTHER TO THE S. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES             
BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MDLS SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT                     
DIFFERENCES. THE ETA/UKMET SUGGEST MAIN PCPN BAND WILL REMAIN MAINLY            
S OF UPR MI WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN DEPICT MORE GENEROUS 850-500 RH              
AND QPF ACRS UPR MI. MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS WOULD BE WEAK SHRTWVS              
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WEAK 900-700 FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORTED BY            
UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF H3 JET OVER NRN ONTARIO. WITH                
LACK OF MDL CONSENSUS ON SUCH MECHANISMS OR QPF...HAVE TAPERED BACK             
POPS SLIGHTLY TO CHANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED             
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GFS MUCAPE OF 300-800 J/KG                     
LINGERING INTO WED MORNING OVER THE S 2/3 OF UPR MI...EXPECT ONLY               
ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA IF AREA OF SHRA DEVELOPS.                                   
REST OF WED INTO THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE WRN LAKES WITH NNE             
FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF            
LK SUPERIOR. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE BUT ADJUSTED A BIT                
COOLER NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                                                        
FRI THROUGH MON...MDLS SUGGEST WRN CONUS TROF WILL PROGRESS TOWARD              
THE GRT LAKES. WHILE 00Z/12Z GFS HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH            
TIMING...SINCE THE OPERATIONAL GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ENSEMBLE               
MEAN...EXPECT SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER. BEST CHANCE             
FOR PCPN ON FRI WITH WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER THE                 
WEST HLF WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS              
AND ANY LEAD SHRTWVS EMERGING FROM THE TROF. DRIER ACYC FLOW SHOULD             
LIMIT PCPN CHANCES FRI OVER THE EAST. FROM FRI NIGHT INTO                       
SAT...BETTER SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED WITH MORE FAVORABLE                   
DYNAMICS AS MID LVL AND SFC TROF APPROACHES. SOME TRAILING SHRTWV               
ENERGY LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT MAY KEEP SOME SCT -SHRA OR TSRA                 
GOING. HOWEVER...BY LATER SUN INTO MON FCST LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF             
06Z/12Z GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BUILD HIGH PRES FROM CNTRL            
CANADA INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO UPR MI WITH             
WITH COOL AIR DOMINATING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SFC ENE FLOW.                  
JLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1053 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
BAND OF TSRA ALONG 850MB WARM FRONT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN               
AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY               
LIFTING THROUGH THE U P...SETTING UP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID              
AFTERNOON FOR US IN THE WARM SECTOR. 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS MODEST                
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING               
TOWARD LAKE WINNIPEG...HAVING EMERGED FROM A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST. FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE TEMPS...WINDS              
AND ONSET OF CONVECTION.                                                        
REGARDING TEMPS...WITH H8 TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND NEAR             
20C IN THE FAR WEST BY 21Z (CONSISTENT WITH 12Z H8 TEMP OF 20C AT               
MPX)...ETA/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHS INTO THE 80S TODAY              
WITH MIXING TO NEAR 860MB. WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND INCREASED WIND TO             
HELP MIXING...TEMPS MAY APPROACH 90F IN THE FAR WEST (ALREADY 75F AT            
IWD AT 14Z). EXCEPTION WILL OF COURSE BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE A            
GOOD ONSHORE WIND AND SOME FOG WILL HOLD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO              
AROUND 60F. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS WELL IN HAND AT THIS POINT.              
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SSW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO            
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SFC LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN MN...              
TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT...AND WE BECOME WELL MIXED. ETA/RUC                
SHOWING BLYR WINDS TO AT LEAST 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS               
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE 50KTS ON THE MPX SOUNDING FROM 925-850MB             
THIS MORNING. WILL ADJUST WINDS UP FROM BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE WEST            
HALF THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
AMS WILL BECOME QUITE CAPPED THIS AFTERNOON...AS 700MB TEMPS WARM TO            
12C OVER THE WEST BY 21Z. THOUGH LOW LEVEL DEWPTS ARE RISING (SFC               
DEWPTS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 60S FROM IWD TO MQT AND IMT)...AND                
SFC-BASED CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 2.5-3.5 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON             
IN THE WEST...CINS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK             
WITHOUT ANY FORCING MECHANISM. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT                
ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZES...AND THE SFC FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL              
TO OUR WEST. SO...DRY BUT MORE HUMID FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS FINE.             
HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN LAKE TONIGHT...NEAREST               
THE GREATER DYNAMICS AND WHERE CAP WILL BREAK SOONEST...BUT HAVE                
OTHERWISE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY.                         
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 330AM EDT)...                          
MODELS THEN FCST UPR SHRTWV TO MOVE ENE TOWARD JAMES BAY BY 12Z TUE.            
GFS INDICATES ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FNT WL REACH WRN LK SUP ARND                  
12Z...WITH RIBBON OF DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/AXIS OF HIER PWAT             
AND H85 DWPT ARND 15C/LOWER SSI TOWARD -5/STEEPER H7-5 LAPSE RATES              
7.0-7.5C/KM INVADING THE WRN ZNS OVERNGT. THESE DYNAMICS...AXIS OF              
H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND PLACEMENT OF CWA IN RRQ OF UPR JET IN ONTARIO              
CAUSE H7 TEMPS TO FALL SVRL DEGREES CLOSER TO 10C. SO...SUSPECT CHCS            
FOR NOCTURNAL TSRA WL INCRS WITH TIME AS MID LVL CAP SLOWLY ERODES              
ABV INCRSG H85 DWPT. HAVE OPTED TO RETAIN HI CHC POPS IN THIS AREA.             
BUT SINCE GFS INDICATES SCNTRL AND ERN ZNS WL REMAIN TO THE SE OF               
BETTER FORCING...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST SLGT CHC FM MNM-ESC-ISQ.             
SPC HAS ALL BUT FAR SE CWA IN SLGT RISK AREA. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM BULK               
SHEAR FCST ONLY IN THE 30KT RANGE...ELEVATED CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500             
J/KG (WITH ONLY 25 J/KG CIN) AT CMX AT 09Z WHEN LIFTING FM H810 IS              
FVRBL FOR LARGE HAIL DESPITE HI WBZ ARND 11K FT. EVALUATION OF SVR              
WX CHECKLIST HINTS THAT BOW ECHOES WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FAIRLY STRG              
FLOW ALF WL BE THE STORM TYPE...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF OVERNGT                  
CNVCTN AND RELATIVELY WEAK SFC-MID LVL THETA-E DIFFERENCE WL LIKELY             
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. OTRW...NGT WL BE QUITE WARM AND             
HUMID WITH STEADY WSW FLOW ALL NGT. MOS LO TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
AND RSNBL.                                                                      
AS UPR FLOW OVER SRN CAN GRDLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL...GFS SHOWS                   
INCRSGLY W-E ORIENTED SFC COLD FNT PRESSING S ACRS CWA LATE TUE/TUE             
NGT...PASSING S OF MNM JUST BEFORE 12Z WED. GFS HINTS AT IMPULSES ON            
SRN FLANK OF MAIN JET AXIS IN SRN CAN WL INVIGORATE THIS FNT AND                
CAUSE AN INCRS IN CNVCTN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS MUST BE VIEWED AS SKETCHY            
ATTM...IT APPEARS BEST CHC FOR HIER POPS PER GFS MOS AND EXPLICIT               
H85-5 RH INCRS WL BE 03Z-15Z WED...WITH DRYING FM THE N ON WED AS               
FLOW ALF BCMS A BIT MORE WNW CONTRIBUTING TO DCRSG PCPN CHCS. WL GO             
WITH LIKELY POPS DURING THIS TIME...WITH TSRA CHCS CONTG EVEN A FEW             
HRS AFTER RATHER SHALLOW SFC COLD FROPA DUE TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
AS INDICATED BY SSI < 0C. TEMPS WL REMAIN WELL ABV NORMAL UNTIL                 
WED...WHEN SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR ARRIVES WITH STEADY NORTH WIND             
OFF LK SUP. EVEN AFTER SHRA END BEHIND FROPA...XPCT LO CLD TO LINGER            
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES FM THE N.                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION...JKL                                                                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KC                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE                  
REGION TODAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE            
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE TO             
16C BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THUS STILL               
EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE                
INCREASING TEMPS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...WARMING MID LEVEL            
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL ESSENTIALLY KEEP SE LOWER MI CAPPED            
TO ANY CONVECTION. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALSO INHIBIT MUCH                  
DIURNAL CU. JUST EXPECTING SOME CIRRUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS              
THE NORTH...REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MINNESOTA. THE            
RUC INDICATES THAT THE 950MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 15KTS THIS                    
AFTERNOON...THEN STRENGTHEN TO 20 KNOTS TOWARD EVENING. THIS SHOULD             
KEEP LAKE BREEZES WITHIN A COUPLE MILES FROM THE SHORE. THUS WILL               
INCREASE TEMPS IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID             
80S...IN LINE WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN INTERIOR COUNTIES.                         
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 405 AM.                                            
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...               
BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER QUEBEC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COMPACT UPPER            
LOW JUST NORTH OF MONTANA EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH             
A +110KT JET OBSERVED AT 300MB OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW WELL INTO QUEBEC...WITH A LINGERING FRONT            
STRETCHING BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK                   
THROUGH A SURFACE WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS...TO MAIN LOW OVER SOUTHERN             
SASKATCHEWAN. IR SATELLITE/METARS SHOW AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS NEAR               
THIS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH REGIONAL RADARS                
SHOW A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AFTER OVER THE PAST TWO               
HOURS.                                                                          
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG A LONGWAVE               
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LEADING TO AMPLIFICATION OF THE                 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AT 500MB...582DAM CONTOUR                
BUILDS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING TO THE STRAITS BY 00Z THIS            
EVENING. COLD FRONT THAT STALLED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL RETURN                
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...CLEARING NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY                     
AFTERNOON. WEAK 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL                 
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK /DIFFERENTIAL COOLING               
LEADING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/ HAS LEAD TO THE SHOWER                       
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER. WILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN            
THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH 10 AM...BUT BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS               
THEY MAY BE OUT OF THE AREA IN JUST A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE THERE                
WILL BE AN INTERESTING CALL AS TO PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES            
FOR TODAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UPSTREAM ACROSS                
WISCONSIN...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED MID CLOUDS AROUND. FARTHER                 
NORTH A SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN                        
WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN               
MINNESOTA. CURRENT SATELLITE WOULD SUGGEST THIS DEBRIS COULD AFFECT             
THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS             
THE REGION...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE DEFLECTED TO THE NORTH. WILL OPT            
FOR AN OPTIMISTIC MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON /ONCE CURRENT MID                   
CLOUDS/PRECIP CLEARS OUT/. ETA CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST                         
INSTABILITY...WITH 0-2KM CAPES OVER 1000J/KG. HOWEVER FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP DEVELOPING AROUND 650MB UNDER THE                   
BUILDING RIDGE...WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY               
WITH NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN THE AREA /ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS                
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING/. 950MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 20KTS OUT OF            
THE SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD HOLD ANY LAKE BREEZES AT BAY UNTIL MID/LATE            
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING REGIONS NEAR THE LAKE TO REACH WARM HIGHS IN               
THE LOW/MID 80S BEFORE COOLING OFF. AND WITH THE STRONG CAP IN                  
PLACE...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WOULD NOT HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO SPARK              
CONVECTION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON DRY.                              
SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MERGE WITH THE ONE OVER SOUTHERN              
SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT.                
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT               
LAKES...TO AN ANCHOR LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN            
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT /NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF                    
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ALTHOUGH SOME NEAR THE SURFACE/. DECENT                    
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN            
THE LOW 60S LEADING TO ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT.                              
NORTHERN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO QUEBEC ON TUESDAY...WITH THE            
COLD FRONT BACK-DOORING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ETA CONTINUES            
TO BE FASTER THAN THE GFS BRINGING THIS FRONT SOUTHWARD. PREFER THE             
GFS TIMING WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THE LAST THREE RUNS...              
AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN GLOBAL. WITH THE COLD FRONT               
STILL WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY...THERE MAY BE NO GOOD FOCUS               
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP             
WEAKENING DURING THE DAY. A MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDING FOR A MORE               
REALISTIC 88/68 /AS OPPOSED TO THE TYPICALLY HIGH ETA SURFACE                   
DEWPOINTS/ GETS AROUND THE CAP WITH 3000J/KG OF AVAILABLE ENERGY.               
DIFFICULT TO IGNORE THIS EVEN WITHOUT A GOOD TRIGGER MECHANISM...AND            
WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE GRIDS. TUESDAY ALSO              
IS ALSO GOING TO BE THE WARM DAY THIS PERIOD...WITH ALL OF THE CWA              
APPROACHING 90F. STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND /950MB SPEEDS +20KTS/ SHOULD             
KEEP LAKE BREEZES AT BAY. RECORDS AT DTW/FNT/MBS ARE 93/91/93. FNT              
MAY BE CLOSE...BUT STILL NOT ENOUGH.                                            
COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FASTER ETA BRINGS IT TO THE            
SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH THE PREFERRED GFS ONLY             
TAKING IT TO NORTHERN LOWER. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE SLOWER                       
TIMING...AN INCREASE IN LIFT FROM WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO             
KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP GOING OVERNIGHT. FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE CWA              
ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO THE BEST CHANCE FOR                   
PRECIP. CURRENT TIMING MAY BE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING            
THE CWA RIGHT DURING PEAK HEATING. GOOD STABILITY WILL BE                       
AVAILABLE...AS WE WILL HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING UNDER A CAPPED                     
ATMOSPHERE FOR A FEW DAYS. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 50 PERCENT DURING              
THE DAY...AND MAINTAIN THAT FOR THE EVENING FOR NOW. THE ETA...IN               
ADDITION BEING FASTER INITIALLY...ALSO DROPS THE FRONT FARTHER                  
SOUTH. IT BUILDS THE TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT             
LAKES...AS OPPOSED TO KEEPING IT ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AS DEPICTED            
BY THE GFS. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE             
FOR THE LAST WEEK...AND THERE CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNS. CURRENT GRIDS            
LOOK GOOD...KEEPING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR                     
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN EVERYWHERE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AS WESTERN            
TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT INTO THE PLAINS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1001 AM CDT MON JUNE 7 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST QUANDARY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.                        
MCV OVER RED RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST THIS                        
MORNING...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREATER MIDWEST.                   
RUC AND ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND                  
AROUND 2500 J/KG2 OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS                        
CONFIRMS...WITH A TONGUE OF 70+ DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF            
MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO MISSOURI.                                                 
0-6 KM SHEAR IS NILL...AND A DEFINED LIFTING MECHANISM IS                       
ABSENT...ONLY WEAK DPVA WILL BE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED MCV.                           
THEREFORE...DIURNALLY INDUCED ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION BETWEEN                 
18Z-00Z IS LIKELY SOUTHWEST OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA...ACROSS THE            
EASTERN OZARKS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
CVKING                                                                          
EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS              
PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDSTL TO AFDLSX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL                 
REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE                     
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
940 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
THERE ARE A FEW SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE OVER LK                        
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY AREA ATTM. THIS FEATURE TO MOVE SE THIS AFTN TWD             
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL KEEP 20 POP SLGT CHANCE OF A                  
SHWR/TSTM FOR AREAS FROM THE FINGER LKS EAST OTRW PARTLY TO MSTLY               
SUNNY FOR THIS AFTN. TEMPS GENLY FROM THE MID 70S DOWNWIND FROM                 
LAKES TO LOWER 80S INLAND.                                                      
NO CHANGES TO REST OF THE FORECAST.                                             
EARLIER AFD FOLLOWS...                                                          
JJP                                                                             
COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS WELL DEFINED ACROSS                
QUEBEC...BUT BECOMES RATHER ILL-DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND             
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. ALL THE UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS WELL                   
NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS QUEBEC AND THIS IS HELPING TO GENERATE                 
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE               
VALLEY. AS OF 07Z...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER                  
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT...FEEL ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN            
WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...IF IT REACHES THE AREA AT ALL.               
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO                
DEVELOP. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION AND            
IT KEEPS NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA THIS                 
MORNING.                                                                        
AS UPPER DYNAMICS SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD              
INTO THE REGION AND WILL COMPLETELY WASH OUT FRONT BEFORE IT REACHES            
OUR AREA.                                                                       
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS                
AFTERNOON. WILL RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING                      
SUBSIDENCE FEEL ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG A LAKE BREEZE                    
BOUNDARY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF                    
FORECAST.                                                                       
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. 850 MB             
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR +18C AND SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS              
WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE                 
NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR SECTIONS. ROCHESTER COULD FLIRT WITH THEIR             
RECORD HIGH OF 92F SET BACK IN 1906. SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES               
WILL KEEP THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS BACK CLOSER TO              
80F. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO                 
STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT BUFKIT                   
PROFILES SHOWING A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE WITH A MODEST            
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. WILL HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING               
CONVECTION....CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.                                     
ETA AND GFS TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT A LITTLE CLOSER THIS RUN. ETA             
STILL ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER. WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE               
AREA...CONTINUE TO FEEL SLOWER GFS SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE. GFS             
DROPS THE FRONT INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. COULD SEE               
SOME CONVECTION INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS              
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. GFS PROFILES                      
SUGGESTING CAPES COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDEX                
VALUES DOWN TO -4.                                                              
COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH A VERY STEAMY AIR MASS WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE A ROUND OF CONVECTION WORK ACROSS              
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FEEL LIKELY PROBABILITIES REASONABLE AT               
THIS POINT. GFS QPF SUGGESTING A GOOD HALF INCH ACROSS THE AREA.                
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE            
SOUTHERN TIER...BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR            
BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AND CLEAR THE AREA OUT                
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                                                          
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
A VERY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED COOL FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A               
WARM FRONT AS SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE                     
GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS               
WILL BE COMMON IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...WITH             
A 4-5 KFT DECK POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF KART BETWEEN                
10-15Z BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH. SOME                   
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON              
WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL SCT-BKN CLOUDINESS IN THE 4-5              
KFT LAYER...BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE AS UPPER               
RIDGING/ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN                  
ALL...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE              
TAF PERIOD.                                                                     
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...TMA                                                                    
AVIATION...JJR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
952 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
latest ruc showing low continuing over Savannah river and morning               
coastal soundings showing capes around 3000 J/kg. pw are down a bit             
but models show convection developing along sea breeze around 18 UTC            
and continue through 00Z UTC.  Current forecast looks fine and no               
updates are planned.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND 41003 MOVING NE...AND LITTLE EXPECTED THIS                 
AFTERNOON IN THE AREA. UPDATE WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TSTMS THIS                 
AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL            
MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. BERMUDA RIDGING INTO THE SE                         
STATES WILL CONTINUE WITH 3 FT SEAS WITH LONG PERIOD...7-8 SECONDS              
AND WIND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                               
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WED AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM              
THE N. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY              
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THU AND FRI.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER SHOULD DISSIPATE AND DRIFT               
NORTH TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION               
EARLIER THIS MORNING IN THE LUMBERTON/FAYETTEVILLE AREAS. HUMID                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL GIVE RISE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS              
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.               
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN                      
APPRECIABLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MAKING CONVECTION EVEN MORE                  
LIKELY. IN ADDITION...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM             
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL             
INCREASE AFTERNOON POPS TO 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH DAYS. THIS IS IN              
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND MORE            
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO...              
BUT AN 84-87 RANGE LOOKS GOOD FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AWAY               
FROM THE COAST.                                                                 
THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW              
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST             
TO BE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL                      
MAY DEVELOP. YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE STILL RUNNING AS                      
HIGH AS 7 INCHES AT FLORENCE AND 6 INCHES IN WILMINGTON AND                     
LUMBERTON...THIS MAY BE MORE WELCOME RAIN THAN ANYTHING.                        
DOMINANT FLOW FROM THE S TO SW WITH WEAK BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SE                
COAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN SEA STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS            
GENERALLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT. WINDS AROUND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT             
IN THE AFTN ALONG THE COAST AS SEA BREEZE SETS UP.                              
INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WED AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM              
THE N. WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT WED NIGHT WITH SEAS GRADUALLY              
BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FT THU AND FRI.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WILMINGTON     86  70  85  70 /  30  20  40  20                                 
FLORENCE       88  70  87  71 /  40  30  50  30                                 
LUMBERTON      86  69  86  71 /  30  30  50  30                                 
MYRTLE BEACH   83  72  82  72 /  30  20  30  20                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HAWKINS/TM                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
930 PM CDT MON JUN  7 2004                                                      
SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE MOVED OUT/DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION              
OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE H5            
LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING               
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW... ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO                    
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. IN THE SHORT RUN... DO NOT SEE A LOT OF FORCING                
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING... SO WILL HANG ON TO ONLY LOW POPS                  
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AIRMASS REMAINS              
FAIRLY MOIST... AND WHAT WEAK FORCING MAY EXIST EAST OF THE TROUGH              
AXIS... MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS. ALSO MONITORING            
A LARGE AREA OF PCPN OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST RUC APPEARS TO HAVE NO            
CLUE ABOUT THE SOUTH TEXAS PCPN... WHILE THE NEW ETA INITIALIZES IT             
REASONABLY WELL. ETA PULLS THE PCPN TO NEAR THE RED RIVER BY 12Z AS             
AN UPPER LOW...PERHAPS ANOTHER MCV... DEEPENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH               
THE PCPN. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE RED RIVER                
TOWARDS MORNING.                                                                
&&                                                                              
32                                                                              
_____________________________________________                                   
320 PM CDT MON JUN  7 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MCV FEATURE THAT HAS AIDED IN FLOODING RAINS PAST FEW                           
DAYS IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE                       
THIS AFTERNOON.  BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SYSTEM OVER                             
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS                          
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  PW'S AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM                          
INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF                             
THE FA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AREA STARTING                          
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.  COMBINATION OF                              
INCREASING LLJ AND UPPER JET MAX GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT                       
MAY RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN                                   
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY                     
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS.  STILL                          
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT EVOLUTION BUT FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEED FOR                    
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SE PARTS OF FA.                                            
GOING INTO EXTENDED PART OF FORECAST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW                       
WILL INCREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH OVER                          
NORTHWEST PART OF US MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.                            
AS THIS OCCURS WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS DEVELOPING                     
ALONG DRYLINE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF FA.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE                    
A DAILY OCCURRENCE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN A COLD FRONT                  
IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.  THEREFORE WILL KEEP IN                    
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                       
WITH MONDAY BEING A DRY DAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  85  71  86 /  10  30  50  20                              
HOBART OK         71  89  70  91 /  10  10  10   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  88  72  88 /  10  30  10  10                              
GAGE OK           71  93  68  92 /  10   0  10   0                              
PONCA CITY OK     71  85  70  86 /  10   0  10  20                              
DURANT OK         71  84  71  86 /  30  60  70  60                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
6                                                                               
EFFECTIVE 7 AM TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER               
FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDOKC TO AFDOUN.  THE WMO HEADER             
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE               
COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004.                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
910 PM EDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...CONVECTION FINALLY ON THE DECLINE AND CURRENTLY CONFINED              
TO GA...MAINLY W OF US-301. PLENTY OF OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER PRECIP SO            
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL LATE EVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING                 
CLOSER TO THE SAV RIVER AND THE N PART OF THE CWA...BUT TREND HAS               
DEFINITELY BEEN FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO STORMS                 
SINCE BEFORE SUNSET.                                                            
SFC LOW PRES IN E GA WILL MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT...WHILE ASSOCIATED                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS N OF THE CWA. BUT WITH LINGERING OUTFLOWS AS             
MENTIONED ABOVE AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THESE SFC FEATURES I WILL                
KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR AT LEAST GA TONIGHT...MAINLY EARLY.                      
MUCH OF SE GA AND A SMALL PART OF SC RECEIVED RAINS EARLIER                     
TODAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES. WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND            
WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA THIS POINTS TO FOG DEVELOPING                      
OVERNIGHT. BUT...EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO                  
BEFORE THEY THIN OUT. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG AT LEAST TO THE GRIDS.                
WILL TWEAK A FEW TEMPS...MAINLY TO LOWER A BIT FAR INLAND AND OPEN A            
LARGER COASTAL RANGE. NO MORE THAN MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS. WILL             
INITIAL ALL ZONES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BACKED WINDS TO SELY EARLIER THIS               
AFTN AND BUOYS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR SELY FLOW THRU THIS EVE THUS               
FAR. RUC AND META ALSO INDICATE WINDS WILL REMAIN SELY THRU ABOUT               
06Z...SO FOR CWF UPDATE WILL INITIALIZE WITH SELY WINDS BECOMING SLY            
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES NEEDED                 
THERE...AND SELY FLOW NOT LONG ENUF TO MAKE ANY NOTICEABLE CHANGES              
WITH THE WAVE HEIGHTS SO NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE. NO HEADLINES.                 
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PM/JPC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
845 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WL BE UPDATING THE ZFP TEXT BETWEEN 9 AND 10 PM FOR CRNT TRENDS...              
BUT OVERALL GOING FCST IS DOING GOOD WITH NO MAJOR PROBLEMS. NEW                
GRIDS ARE ALREADY OUT. DECENT TS ACTIVITY HAS FIRED UP IN CNTRL NEB             
WHERE THE STRONG MID LVL CAP HAS BROKE. ATTM...SFC CDFNT IS ABOUT               
RIGHT ON TOP OF MARSHALL MN...EXTENDING SW TO ABOUT 40 MILES WEST OF            
YANKTON. BOTH LATEST RUC40 AND 18Z META SHOW THIS FRONT NOT MAKING A            
LOT OF EWD PROGRESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY LAYING              
OVR FM NEAR MARSHALL...TO SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. THAT COULD BE THE             
CONTINUING FOCUS FOR NIGHTTIME DVLPMENT. LOW LVL JET REMAINS STRONG             
PRETTY MUCH THRU THE WHOLE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND ATTM AM               
THINKING THAT THE CONVECTION IN CNTRL NEB...DUE TO LACK OF TRUE EWD             
PROGRESS...WL NOT HINDER THE LOW LVL JET FEED THAT MUCH. KABR SNDG              
SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF COOLING AT H7 FM 18Z TO 00Z FM +16C TO +11 OR              
+12C. ONCE THIS COOLER MID LVL AIR STARTS ADVECTING INTO WRN MN...AM            
THINKING THAT CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE BNDRY...THEN BACK BUILD             
SW ALONG THE LOW LVL JET AXIS INTO SE SD LATE TNGT. THE CRNT                    
ACTIVITY IN NEB WL LIKELY NOT HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE FSD                     
CWA...OTHER THAN TO GREATLY INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER EARLIER THAN WE            
EXPECTED...AND SMALL POPS ARE ALREADY POSTED IN THE WEST AND NORTH.             
DIR WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY THRU             
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH REMAINING DECENT INSTABILITY AT 06Z BUT                
RAPID STABILIZATION FM 06Z TO 09Z. THE NRN AND WRN CWA IS BEHIND THE            
FRONT WITH MUCH LESS WIND SHEAR AND STABILITY...WHILE THE SE CWA IN             
NW IA REMAINS UNSTABLE BUT MUCH MORE CAPPED WITH VERY HIGH CINS.                
THAT'S BASICALLY THE STORY. A FEW SVR TS COULD POP LATE TNGT RIGHT              
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE CDFNT...MAYBE DIME OR NICKEL HAILERS...BUT            
IT WON'T BE A WIDESRPEAD OUTBREAK. MAY UP THE POPS THOUGH AND GO                
CLOSER TO 50 POPS (SCATTERED) ARND THE SIOUX FALLS AREA...BUT WILL              
RESERVE JUDGEMENT ON THAT UNTIL THE 00Z DATA COMES OUT. THE DEEPER              
ONE GOES INTO NW IA...THE LESS LIKELY FOR TS CHCS WHERE THE CINS ARE            
OUT OF CONTROL. AS A SIDENOTE...LOWS LOOK GREAT SO FAR AND WILL NOT             
BE TAMPERED WITH.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
920 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES IT SEEMS MORE AND MORE CLEAR                
THAT THE FRONT IS PROBABLY NOT GOING TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WITH           
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. 18Z ETA SOLUTION HAS THE WRONG IDEA WITH                     
PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT                   
SOLUTION. BUT HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT NCEP RUC RUNS AND A LOCAL                    
WORKSTATION ETA /WSETA/ MODEL RUN AT ARX HERE AND BOTH ACTIVATE                 
TSRA ON THE FRONT BUT KEEP EVERYTHING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.           
00Z/JUNE7 4KM WRF MODEL ACTIVATES THE FRONT 01-02Z AND THEN SHIFTS              
THE A TSRA LINE EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA.                                    
see:http://rain.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5                                                
AT 01Z...THE FORECAST AREA HAD AN AVERAGE SBCAPE OF 2000J/KG WITH 70-           
120J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND NO CONVERGENCE AREAS TO BREAK THE             
CAP. THE FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS IN MN...BUT VERY              
SLOW...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-850MB LAYER JUST OUT            
AHEAD OF IT. THE WIND SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE WEAK OVER THE FORECAST               
AREA AND BEST RIGHT ON THE FRONT. THUS...ALL THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS              
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT A THREAT. ALSO...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT ALOFT...WOULD EXPECT THE STORMS AND RAIN TO FORM AND               
REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT...OR WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE FRONT. LATEST            
RUC/WSETA SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY IN THE SAME POSITION AT              
DAWN.                                                                           
WILL ADJUST CHANCE OF TSRA WEST FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT AND KEEP A               
SMALL CHANCE WEST OF A KRST-KMDZ LINE. OTHERWISE A WARM AND SUMMERY             
NIGHT.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
BAUMGARDT                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                               
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HANDLING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY              
AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                                 
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST                    
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE              
GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF FRONT RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35                
MPH ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.            
LAPS DATA INDICATING STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST...                 
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THIS WITH SUNNY SKIES.                   
OVERALL THE 12Z 07JUN04 GFS INITIALIZED BEST WITH REGARDS TO THE                
UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST. HOWEVER BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE                
SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT WITH HANDING THE WEST COAST LOW AND THE FRONT OVER                    
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH NO CLEAR CUT                
FAVORITE.                                                                       
IN THE SHORT TERM...LOTS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING              
WITH WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN CAPPED AND THUS                 
HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE EVENING HOURS AND              
CONFINED TO JUST SMALL CHANCES ACROSS CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES.                
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND               
TUESDAY. 0-6KM SHEAR STILL WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY                
AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITIES AGAIN BUILDING. HOWEVER CAP CONTINUES              
TO BE THE PROBLEM. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID RANGE POPS FOR                
THE AFTERNOON HOURS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO              
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ON             
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS AND THUS HAVE                  
RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STILL              
THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AS EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONT                
BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE IN             
THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. BIGGEST CONCERN LOOKS TO BE RIVERS AS THEY ARE           
STILL QUITE HIGH. WILL RE-ISSUE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THIS                 
POTENTIAL. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL            
CONTINUE AHEAD OF BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT SHEAR VALUES             
REMAIN QUITE LOW...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 25 KNOTS ACROSS            
THE ENTIRE AREA. MODEL SOUNDING ARE INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT             
AND THIS COUPLED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITIES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A              
WIND AND HAIL THREAT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY.                                         
HAVE ALSO OPTED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THURSDAY WITH BOUNDARY                    
STILL NEAR THE AREA. THIS INLINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.                        
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GUIDANCE VALUES ALL VERY SIMILAR AND SIMILAR              
TO THE ON GOING FORECAST...THUS NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS.                            
RABERDING                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.ARX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
IA...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
EFFECTIVE 7 AM TUESDAY JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR           
THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDLSE TO AFDARX.  THE WMO HEADER WILL            
REMAIN UNCHANGED.  PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE                    
COMPLETED BY TOMORROW.                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1235 AM EST TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND A LITTLE            
MVFR BR AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME RESIDUAL HAZE POSSIBLE IN                
MORNING WITH INCREASED HEAT AND HUMIDITY. MAINLY SCT VFR CU DURING              
THE DAY. CU RULE DOES INDICATE BKN VFR AT TIMES BUT MOST OF TIME                
SHOULD BE IN SCT CATEGORY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WHICH             
WILL KEEP ANY CHANCE OF SH/TSRA UNTIL TUE LATE. WITH DECENT NVA AND             
NO TRIGGER MECHANISM TOOK MENTION OF SHRA ACTIVITY OUT OF TUE                   
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. GFS HINTING AT ACTIVITY BUT H70 SHORTWAVE IS                 
PROGGED TOO FAR NORTH OVER MO MAKING FOR A MECHANISM FOR PRECIP TO              
FALL THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL. THE ETA HAS H70 SHORTWAVE MUCH FURTHER             
SOUTH OVER OK AND KS...AND THIS MAKES MORE SENSE AS PRECIP IS                   
CONFINED THERE. ETA SHOWS FOCUS MAINLY OVER IA...IL AND WI FOR                  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND IS HANDLING THE CLOSED LOW OVER OK BETTER                
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RUC40 IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ETA SHORT TERM.              
H85 JET WILL SURGE INTO SW IA BY 12Z TUE AND BRING LOWER 70 DEWS                
INTO AT LEAST MY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA TUE. EXPERIMENTAL WAM                 
NUMBERS IN THE LOW 90S AND MET AND MAV RIGHT BEHIND IN UPPER 80S.               
MODELS A LITTLE SLUGGISH WITH ACTUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS OVER IL             
MO AND IA THAN PROGGED. IF DEWS PUSH MORE INTO THE 70S IN MY CWA TUE            
IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO GET INTO THE LOWER 90S...SO WENT WITH A BLEND.            
MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY AND BY 16-18Z CU SHOULD DEVELOP.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MAKE PROGRESS SOUTH AS SFC RIDGE TO              
THE NORTH TRIES TO BUILD IN SOMEWHAT. NOT A MAJOR PUSH BEHIND THE               
FRONT...SO STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT              
MOVES. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE               
AREA WEDS AFTN/NGT WITH LINGERING PRECIP THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.             
HAVE WENT WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. RISK FOR               
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT               
IMMEDIATELY THAT WARRANTS ANY ZONE MENTION. WILL STILL BE WARM AND              
MUGGY ON WEDS AND LIKELY THURS AS CLOUD COVER AND LOCATION OF THE               
FRONT WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT. THURS AND FRI COULD SEE A             
RATHER LARGE VARIATION IN TEMPS WITH UPR 70S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY              
AND MID-UPR 80S SOUTH. FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON FRI WITH                      
CONTINUING CHC OF PRECIP. SATURDAY COULD END UP DRY AS FRONT MOVES              
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST. DUE              
TO TIMING ISSUES...WILL NOT DROP MENTION OF PRECIP. COLD FRONT MOVES            
IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND CONTINUING               
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
340 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG OVER THE GRT             
LKS DOWNSTREAM OF TROF ALG THE W COAST. POTENT SHRTWV RIDING NE INTO            
ONTARIO ON TOP OF RDG IN THE GRT LKS...ACCOMPANIED BY H3/H5/H7 SPEED            
MAX OF 110KT/80KT/50KT FM SRN LK WINNIPEG TO CYPL. STRG WSW FLOW TO             
THE S OF SFC LO NE OF LK WINNIPEG HAS PUSHED WARM FNT WELL N OF                 
CWA... WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR INVADING THE CWA (03Z TEMP AT               
IWD 82 AFTER TMAX OF 90...03Z TD AT IMT 68). DESPITE AMPLE SFC BASED            
INSTABILITY... IMPRESSIVE H65-75 CAP DEPICTED ON 00Z MPX/GRB SDNGS              
(H85-7 TEMPS ARND 20C-12C) MAINTAINED BY SUBSIDENCE IN UNFVRBL RIGHT            
EXIT OF JET TO THE NW AND STRG WAD HAS INHIBITED TSRA DVLPMNT OVER              
THE FA EVEN THOUGH LAPSE RATES ABOVE CAP ARE QUITE STEEP (H7-5 RATES            
ARND 8C/KM). BUT CNVCTN HAS BEEN FIRING ACRS MN ALG PRE-COLD FNTL               
TROF APRNT AT BOTH SFC-H85 AT NW SIDE OF STRG CAP AND UNDER AXIS OF             
HIER PWAT ARPCHG 1.50 INCHES. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MOVING NE...AND                 
PROMPTED EARLIER ISSUANCE OF VERIFIED TSRA WRNG FOR ISLE ROYALE                 
(PENNY-SIZED HAIL). 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS HINT OF CAP AT H7 (TEMP                  
9C)...BUT CIN IS QUITE A BIT LESS THAN FARTHER SE. MAIN SFC COLD FNT            
THAT MARKS LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR EVIDENT FM LK                  
WINNIPEG LO SW INTO SD. SFC DWPTS FALL WELL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THIS            
BNDRY.                                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE SVR TSRA CHCS ASSOCIATED               
WITH STRG SHRTWV PASSING TO THE N...AND THEN AGAIN ON TUE WITH APRCH            
OF MAIN COLD FNT TO THE W.                                                      
TENDED TO FOLLOW RUC GUIDANCE FOR SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS               
SHIFTS HAVE NOTED THIS MODEL HAS HAD BETTER HANDLE ON CAP STRENGTH              
AND MAINTENANCE. RUC SHOWS JET MAX IN NW ONTARIO MOVING ENE OVERNGT             
ALG WITH POTENT SHRTWV. BUT ANOTHER H3 JET MAX FCST TO INTENSIFY                
OVER SRN LK WINNIPEG OVERNGT...WHICH HAS GOOD SUPPORT FM THE LATEST             
ETA/GFS/NGM. ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTURE OF THE INITIAL JET MAX AND                  
ASSOCIATED RIGHT EXIT SUBSIDENCE WOULD TEND TO CAUSE THE CAP TO                 
WEAKEN...THE ASSOCIATED UPR CNVGC IN THE RIGHT EXIT OF THE NEW JET              
(BEST DEPICTED ON THE RUC/GFS) MIGHT TEND TO MAINTAIN THE CAPPING.              
ON THE OTHER HAND...RUC SHOWS BNDRY IN NE MN TENDING TO PUSH EWD                
OVERNGT INTO WRN LK SUP...WITH INCRSG H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME                 
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ALG SLOWLY VEERING H85 JET AXIS UP TO 55KT/AXIS             
OF HIER PWAT CONTRIBUTING TO A COOLING OF THE CRITICAL H75-65 TEMP              
AND A WEAKENING OF THE CAP/CIN. RUC FCST SNDGS FOR CMX INDICATE                 
CONTINUED NEGATIVE JET DYNAMICS WL OUTWEIGH THE CONTRIBUTION FM                 
THESE MECHANISMS. ALTHOUGH LIFTING FM H75 AT CMX AT 09Z YIELDS                  
MUCAPE ARPCHG 1500 J/KG...CIN REMAINS A HEFTY 100 J/KG. BOTH GFS/RUC            
INDICATE UPR DVGC CORRESPONDING TO GROWING TSRA LINE OVER THE MN                
ARROWHEAD WL SHIFT MORE NE THAN E AS WELL. WL CARRY ISOLD TSRA OVER             
THE NW ZNS EARLY IN THIS FCST PD IN CASE POSITIVE DYNAMICS CAN                  
WEAKEN THE CAP ENUF...BUT DRY TO THE E UNDER THE LINGERING CAP. AS              
FAR AS SVR THREAT FOR ANY TSRA THAT DO DVLP... RUC SHOWS 0-6KM BULK             
SHEAR IN THE 35-40KT RANGE OVER THE KEWEENAW. FAIRLY STRG                       
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW IN THE H7-5 LYR (45-50KT) AND SFC-H6 DELTA              
THETA-E NR 18C HINTS AT STRG WIND THREAT...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF               
CNVCTN AND STRG MID LVL CAP WOULD REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL. STEEP MID              
LVL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...BUT WBZ APRCHG            
11K FT IS UNFRVBL. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...MODELS SHOW SFC COLD               
FNT REACHING THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTN...WITH AXIS OF MAX PWAT OVER             
THE SRN TIER ALG REMNANTS OF PRE-FRONTAL TROF. MODELS HINT THAT ENUF            
DRY AIR SNEAKS INTO THE FAR NW TO PRECLUDE CNVCTN...BUT EXPECT                  
CNVCTN TO FIRE ALG THE STNRY BNDRY OVER THE SCNTRL ZNS...WITH SOLAR             
HTG INSTIGATING LK BREEZE FORMATION IN WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT UNDER            
LARGE SCALE FNT AND ENHANCING LLVL CNVGC ALG INSTABILITY AXIS OF LI             
ARND -4 FCST BY ETA FM IMT-ERY. JET AXIS TO THE NW ALSO MOVES                   
FARTHER E SO THAT RIGHT EXIT SUBSIDENCE MIGHT BE MINIMIZED IN THE               
AFTN (BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW FALLING H7 TEMPS)...SO WL MAINTAIN GOING HI CHC         
POPS ALG THIS AXIS FOR LATER IN THE AFTN...WITH POPS SHAVED                     
ESPCIALLY TO THE NW WHERE MID LVL DRY AIR INFUSION WL BE FELT                   
STRONGEST. ETA FCST SDNG FOR IMT AT 18Z SHOWS CAPE APRCHG 2700 J/KG             
(LI -7) WITH NO CIN FOR T/TD 86/68. ALTHOUGH PRESENCE OF BNDRY WL               
INCRS THREAT OF MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY IN              
THE 20-30KT RANGE ALG THE FNT. AS INDICATED BY DAYSHIFT...PULSE SVR             
THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE GREATEST...ESPECIALLY WITH DRY MID                       
LVLS/SFC-H68 DELTA THETA-E AT IMT AN IMPRESSIVE 25C WITH INVERTED V             
SDNG AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. BUT HIER FRZLVL/WBZ ARND               
15.2/12.9 KFT WOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE SVR POTENTIAL.                             
AS UPR JET MAX CONTS EWD ACRS SRN CAN TNGT...UPR FLOW VEERS MORE WNW            
AND BECOMES INCRSGLY CONFLUENT IN ONTARIO...CAUSING AN INCRS IN MSLP            
IN SCNTRL CAN INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BLDG HI PRES TO THE NW FCST TO              
ENHANCE LLVL DRY AIR ADVCTN INTO THE FA. SFC COLD FNT PROGGED TO                
PUSH THRU MNM EARLY THIS EVNG. MID LVL DRYING/LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG WL            
CAUSE LINGERING TSRA IN THE EVNG TO DIMINISH...BUT THEN GFS/ETA HINT            
AT INCRSG MID LVL RH LATER AT NGT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE RRQ            
OF UPR JET MAX TO THE NE PASSES OVER THE FA WITH SOME DEEP BUT                  
RATHER FLABBY H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC AND ENHANCED H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS              
ON THE COOL SIDE OF SHALLOW FNT PRESSING TO THE S. WITH FNT FARTHER             
S...LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC FOR SHRA WL BE ACRS THE SRN TIER...AND WL               
RETAIN LIKELY POPS THERE WITH SHARPLY REDUCED CHCS FARTHER N (TO NO             
WX OVER THE KEWEENAW). WL MENTION TSRA ONLY IN MNM COUNTY PER                   
ETA/GFS FCST SSI 0 LINE. WL EMPHASIZE MUCH COOLER WITH LLVL NLY FLOW            
BEHIND THE FNT.                                                                 
ON WED...GFS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AT MAINTAINING AND EVEN EXPANDING             
AREA OF HIER H85-5 RH OVER THE CWA WITH HINTS OF BETTER UPR DVGC/               
H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS IN RRQ OF UPR JET TO THE NE. ETA TENDS TO                   
EMPHASIZE DRYING ARND H85. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RH FCST TO INCREASE                 
DRAMATICALLY...MODEL GENERATES QPF ONLY OVER THE SRN TIER WHILE GFS             
SPREADS PCPN BACK AS FAR N AS THE KEWEENAW. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOULD HAVE            
BETTER RESOLUTION ON DRYING...PATTERN RECOGNITION WITH FA IN RRQ                
WITH FRONTOGENESIS MAX TO THE N PROBABLY WARRANTS AT LEAST CHC POPS             
ALL ZNS. CNDN MODEL TENDS TO SUPPORT THE GFS...WHILE UKMET APPEARS              
MORE LIKE THE ETA. GIVEN CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WL GO WITH A 30 POP              
OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 60 OVER THE SCNTRL...WITH DCRSG POPS LATE AND              
INTO THE EVNG AS EVEN THE GFS SHOWS DCRSG H85-5 RH BY 00Z. BUT HAVE             
OPTED TO HOLD ON TO LO CHC POPS ACRS THE FAR SCNTRL INTO WED NGT AS             
ETA/GFS HANG ON TO HIER H85-5 RH IN FVRBL RRQ OF UPR JET N OF                   
SHALLOW FNT NOT TOO FAR TO THE S.                                               
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.                                         
MAIN HEADACHE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CHCS...WHEN...WHERE AND              
HOW LONG?                                                                       
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN LOCATED SOUTH OF CWA THROUGH                       
THURSDAY...ALTHO CONVECTION TONIGHT PROVES THAT DON'T NEED SFC                  
BOUNDARY IN AREA TO FIRE TSRA. LOOKING AT RUC AND M-ETA                         
DATA...APPEARS THAT CONVECTION LAST EVENING AND THIS MORNING IS                 
FIRING ON ISEN LIFT NOTED ON 305K AND 310K LAYERS...COMBINED WITH               
MINOR VORT MOVING SOUTH IN SW FLOW. KABR 88D SHOWING BROAD AREA OF              
PROBABLE ACCAS ACROSS NWRN CWA...WITH BIT BEEFIER STORMS LOCATED                
ACROSS FAR SCNTRL SODAK. LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS MAY             
HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH MORNING. PROB IS THAT AS THESE STORMS TREK                
NORTH...WILL ENCOUNTER AIR ALREADY TURNED OVER BY PREVIOUS                      
CONVECTION. ALSO TIME OF MAX DIURNAL STABILITY SHOULD HELP TO                   
SUPPRESS ONGOING CONVECTION.                                                    
MODELS CONT TO SHOW SFC BOUNDARY SAGGING SLOWLY TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT              
WITH SFC HIGH DRAPED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SFC FLOW IS                
EASTERLY UNDER HIGH...WITH FLOW TURNING SW BY 700MB. ISEN ANALYSIS              
SHOWS THAT FORCING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SFC                     
BOUNDARY...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. FAR NW CWA SHOULD BE              
OK...ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME HI BASED SHOWERS                   
WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. BEST 7H AND 5H OMEGA FIELDS REMAIN             
CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY. ISEN LIFT WEAKENS BY 12Z WED AND SHOULD BE              
FAIRLY CALM DAY FOR THE MOST PART. MUCH STRONGER 5H S/W TROF EJECTS             
OUT OF LONGWAVE WRN TROF BY WED AFTN WITH MUCH MORE INSTABILITY                 
WORKING WAY INTO NRN PLAINS. AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO PLAINS...SFC                 
FRONT BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK TO NORTH...WITH PWATS INCREASING.                  
LEANED TOWARD M-ETA ISEN FORCING ON 305 AND 310 LAYERS TO HELP WITH             
TIMING OF PCPN WED AFTN/NIGHT. AM A BIT WORRIED ABOUT PCPN FCST FOR             
WED NIGHT. 00Z AND NOW QUICK LOOK AT 06Z M-ETA SHOWS THAT WAVE/TROF             
EJECTING OVER REGION FOR WED NIGHT IS SLOWING...WITH NO QPF FCSTD               
ACROSS CWA THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BACKPEDDLE            
A BIT FOR PCPN FCST. FOR NOW...JUST WENT WITH CHC TSRA ALONG MO                 
RIVER COUNTIES WED NIGHT WITH SLGT CHC -TSRA FOR REMAINDER OF CWA.              
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE SOGGY AS SFC LOW GAINS STRENGTH ACROSS WY            
WITH SRN BOUNDARY STILL LIFTING TO THE NORTH. NUMEROUS WAVES EJECT              
OUT OF 5H TROF OVER CWA...WITH FIRST 7H TROF PUSHING NORTH OF CWA               
AROUND 12Z THURSDAY...AND NEXT TROF ENTERING CWA AOA 18Z THURSDAY.              
MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH STRONGER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF TROF 00Z                  
FRIDAY AND MOVING OVER ERN CWA. 2H-3H DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED                  
GREATLY...ALTHO ADMIT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PSBL. TIMING OF JET              
SUPPORT...5H AND 7H WAVES AND SFC BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO SERN                    
CWA...ALL POINT TOWARD GOOD CHC OF -TSRA ACROSS ERN CWA. HAVE UPPED             
POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES AND EAST. WITH PWATS               
OVER 1.5" WILL HAVE TO MONITOR PSBLTY FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS.                     
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
AS LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS              
LIFTS ENEWD INTO SOUTHEAST CHUNK OF CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND...CWA               
SHOULD SEE TWO PERIODS OF CAA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AND               
THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FIRST PERIOD OF CAA                      
ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY S/W ENERGY IN LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH                   
INSERTS COLD FROPA OVER CWA DURING DAY 4. COOLER AIR HOLDS PAT                  
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE S/W IN NW FLOW OVER PAC NW DIVES DOWN INTO              
BACKSIDE OF LOW AMPLITUDE LW TROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD DRAW              
MORE COOL/DRY AIR SWD INTO CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY PRECIP             
CONCERN IS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
IN PLACE AHEAD OF COLD FROPA AND ON SUNDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL COOL                
POOL IN PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING. 00Z GFS IS ACTUALLY PAINTING A               
DRY WX PICTURE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH WAA                 
HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING WHEN NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS             
TO BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. TWEAKED MAX/MIN T GRIDS ONLY.               
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE                                                                       
MN...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
HINTZ/DORN                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING'S KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE            
REMAINS JUICY WITH A PW OF ABOUT 1.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, LOW TO MID               
LEVEL WINDS HAVE SWUNG AROUND TO THE NNW INDICATING THAT TLH IS NOW             
ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY             
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES, THE LATTER OF WHICH             
SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE THE WRN PARTS OF THE AREA AT              
MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED SOME WEAK WARMING AT             
MID LEVELS, SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY.            
LOOKING AT THE KTLH RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM YESTERDAY, WE            
SEE A PRONOUNCED INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER OUR ERN ZONES COMPARED TO            
THE W. THE WRN ZONES WERE ALREADY UNDER NVA YESTERDAY, BUT THE MAIN             
CONTRIBUTER TO THIS PATTERN WAS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID LEVEL                  
CLOUDS THAT DELAYED HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN            
THIS AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT PRESENT TODAY, SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE             
QUITE AS MARKED A DIFFERENCE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE CURRENT                
POP FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING WITH LOWER CHANCES THAN                     
YESTERDAY AND LESS OF A DIFFERENCE FROM W TO E.                                 
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...AS INFERRED ABOVE, THE INHERITED POPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.               
ONE SMALL CHANGE WE ANTICIPATE IS RAISING THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT             
ACROSS THE ERN 1/4 OF THE FORECAST AREA TO LOW END LIKELY (60). THIS            
WOULD INCLUDE OUR SC GA AND ERN BIG BEND ZONES AND WOULD ACCOUNT FOR            
THE DPVA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. THIS            
WOULD MESH WELL WITH OUR OFFICES TO THE E AND MOS CONSENSUS ALSO                
SUPPORTS THIS THINKING. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FOR TODAY, WILL TWEAK WINDS TO SHOW A TRANSITION FROM                 
OBSERVED ELY FLOW TO ONSHORE FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY, THE               
OFFSHORE LEGS MAY SEE THE E WINDS HANG IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY, BUT            
WE ARE TALKING ONLY ABOUT 20 DEGREES DIFFERENCE FROM THE SE WINDS               
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WINDS & SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR               
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. NO HEADLINES.                                                
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES THIS                
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
SHORT RANGE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE UPPER LOW TO NE & WITH TROUGH TO EAST AT 12Z            
THIS MORNING. THEN TODAY MOST OF THE OMEGA LIFT WOULD BE OVER                   
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN            
AGAIN A BIT OF THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OVER THE SE U.S. WHERE SOME              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY INCREASE POPS A BIT. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS HAS               
THIS ENERGY EAST OF CWA WITH MORE OF A SEA BREEZE SITUATION OVER THE            
CWA. TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS FROM GFS INDICATE THIS WELL TOO.                
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.                              
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                          
GFS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY WITH              
EXPECTED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THEN ON SUNDAY MRF SHOWS             
LITTLE CHANGE IN ITS PATTERN OF WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S.             
WITH SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY & SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION               
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON & EVENINGS. TEMPS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 89 70 89 70/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
PFN 89 72 88 74/ 40 20 40 20                                                    
DHN 89 71 89 72/ 40 20 40 20                                                    
ABY 88 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
VLD 89 70 89 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
CTY 89 70 88 71/ 50 20 50 20                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCT                                                                             
WOOL/18                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
939 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY THE MODELS                
YESTERDAY HAS MATERIALIZED AND RESULTED IN AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND                
SHOWERS OFFSHORE ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS.  RUC MODEL               
DEPICTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL COASTAL TROUGH WHICH ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS            
LIGHT FLOW OVER LAND AND INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT WAS                      
OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE AS RIDGE AXIS HAS MIGRATED TO OUR NORTH.                
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASE IN INTENSITY NEAR              
SHORE WITH MAINLY PATCHES OF RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.  THE RATHER             
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD WILL MEAN            
THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE OVER THE                
INTERIOR COUNTIES.  THINK THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING AS               
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER COOL             
AT ABOUT -9.  SO LIKELY POPS OVER THE POPULATED PARTS OF THE                    
INTERIOR COUNTIES SHOULD BE OKAY BUT THERE MAY BE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS            
OVER THE LOWER POPULATED EASTERN SECTIONS WHICH WOULD KEEP POPS                 
LOWER THERE.                                                                    
THINK THAT SCATTERED COASTAL POPS ARE IN ORDER INTO THE EARLY                   
AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED POPS ALONG CONVERGENCE LINES THE REST OF              
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL PROBABLY TREND POPS DOWN TO 30 PERCENT ALONG               
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE COAST.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WIND DATA OVER THE PAST 24 HRS FROM THE LCL DATA                      
BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT FLOW S OF               
THE CAPE.  WINDS AT BUOY012/SAUF1 HAVE BEEN AOB 10KTS FOR THE PAST              
24 HRS WHILE BUOY009/LKWF1 HAVE SEEN THE CLASSIC AFTN SEA BREEZE                
SURGE OF 10-15KTS.  THIS FITS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE                  
BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH.  WILL TWEAK WINDS DOWN A TOUCH OVER            
THE NRN LEG...WINDS OVER THE SRN LEG LOOK FINE ONCE                             
CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS WANE THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT 2-3FT SEAS ARE                
ALMOST ENTIRELY COMPRISED OF AN ERLY SWELL.                                     
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...LASCODY                                                                
MARINE...BRAGAW                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
SLIGHT UPDATE NEEDED FOR CURRENT PACKAGE...CURRENT RUC AND BUFKIT               
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP ERODING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO FORECAST            
FOR THAT AREA...AS CAPES APPROACH 1500 J/KG...THOUGH NO REAL TRIGGER.           
TEMPS...CLOUDS...WINDS FORECAST LOOK FINE FOR FIRST TWO PERIODS.                
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SCHOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM                  
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A              
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A LOW               
OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO ANOTHER LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE LOW OVER KANSAS IS CHANNELING LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE            
DEW POINTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 60S THIS MORNING.            
305K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING ASCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS               
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE  ARE TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND               
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.              
850-500MB Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWING CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL U.P.               
THIS MORNING. GFS AND ETA WILL BE PULLING THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE TO            
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 850MB THETA-E RIDGE              
IS EXTENDS FROM Y62 TO KIMT THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO ALONG THE                
NORTH LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE             
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTH                
CENTRAL U.P. AND ALONG THE SHORE ADJACENT TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN             
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ETA SHOWING MUCAPE AROUND 4000K J/KG THIS               
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. 125KT UPPER LEVEL JET               
MAX IS OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH INTO THE              
75+ RANGE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALONG THE LAKE            
MICHIGAN SHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL SHEAR             
WILL BE WEAK. THIS WILL NEED CAREFUL WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF                  
SEVERE WEATHER.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1050 AM CDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN NE SD MOVED INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL MN             
THIS MORNING.  CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHERE RUC            
SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS LEVEL OVER FAR SRN ND INTO                
CNTRL MN.  700 MB MOISTURE POOL REMAINS OVER SD INTO CNTRL MN                   
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING BUT DOES DECREASE LATER TONIGHT            
INTO WEDNESDAY.  THUS EXPECT TO SEE SOME ELEVATED PCPN TO CONTINUE              
OVER FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN THROUGH THE AFTN THOUGH LIKELY MUCH               
LESS COVERAGE.                                                                  
OTHERWISE INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO               
SPREAD OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN/TONIGHT.  THICKER CLDS IN SRN ZONES              
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S SO LOWERED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY.  NRN                 
ZONES LOOK GOOD.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT...                                                                      
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE                        
WHICH HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  ATMOSPHERE            
HAS MOISTENED UP AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO INTERIOR                  
STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WERE ALREADY APPROACHING THE WESTERN              
SECTIONS OF THE AREA.  EXPECT ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF EARLY EVENING              
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A STORM OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.                          
THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 10 KNOTS...THE STEERING IS DEEP              
ENOUGH (NEARLY 10 THOUSAND FEET ON CANAVERAL PROFILER) TO PUSH SOME             
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS INTO COASTAL SECTIONS.  CURRENTLY THERE ARE SOME              
BOUNDARIES OFFSHORE BUT MOST DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  WILL              
CARRY A 20 PERCENT OVERNIGHT POP ALONG THE COAST.                               
WED-FRI...                                                                      
TIGHT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL RIDE THE NRN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE DLM ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU...SUPPORTED BY A +100KT             
NRN STREAM H25 JET.  CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD PUSH OFF THE CANADIAN             
MARITIMES LATE THU/EARLY FRI...WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW            
PRESSURE CELL S OF GREENLAND AND ICELAND BY LATE FRI.                           
THE RESULT OF THE ABOVE SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP AND WELL SUPPORTED              
CYCLONE/SHORT WAVE TROF THAT GRADUALLY WILL SUPRESS THE DLM RIDGE               
AXIS BACK INTO FL THROUGH THE PD.  IN ITS PRESENT POSITION...THE                
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE DEEP S/ERLY WINDS FOR ONE MORE                  
DAY...A FLOW REGIME THAT FAVORS THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR ISOLD/SCT              
NOCTURNAL/MORNING SHRAS AND THE INTERIOR FOR SCT/NMRS AFTN                      
SHRAS/TSTMS.  AFTER THAT...MEAN STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S/SW             
AS THE ATLC RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE SWD...A FLOW REGIME THAT                  
FAVORS THE E FL COAST FOR AFTN CONVECTION.                                      
AIRMASS IS QUITE SOUPY WITH 12Z PW VALUES AOA 1.7" STATEWIDE...NEAR             
2.0" AT KXMR.  UPSTREAM...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES H100-H50 MEAN RH               
VALUES ABV 60% OVER THE ENTIRE SW ATLC.  "DRIEST" AIR IS OVER THE               
CENTRAL GOMEX WITH MEAN RH VALUES ABV 50%.  GFS GUIDANCE HINTS AT               
THIS AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY FRI AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO            
THE SW...BUT THE "DRYING" THAT WILL OCCUR MOST LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET            
BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.  PRECIP PROFILE WILL FLIP FROM SCT            
COASTAL/LIKELY INTERIOR ON WED TO LIKELY COASTAL/SCT INTERIOR THU               
AS THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW VEERS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SFC FLOW.             
SAT-TUE...                                                                      
EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THE DLM ATLC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SRN              
PENINSULA/FL STRAITS AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE SFC TROFS PINCH OFF OF             
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE UNITED                  
STATES.  WRLY H85-H50 FLOW IN THE MID LATITUDES THROUGH THE PD WILL             
ALLOW THESE SYSTEMS TO PUSH UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE ATLC RIDGE...                
KEEPING IT SUPRESSED OVER THE FL STRAITS.  EXTENDED PRECIP PROFILE              
WILL REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER DIURNAL SHRAS/TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL              
ZONES.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO HIGHLIGHTS.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SE TO SW BY FRI AS THE RIDGE              
AXIS PUSHES S...BUT PGRAD WILL NOT SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED WINDS ABV              
15KTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  WIND WAVE PDS WILL DECREASE AS               
THE WINDS SHIFT TO OFFSHORE...BUT WILL REMAIN BLO 4FT.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DAB  73  86  72  87 /  20  30  20  60                                           
MCO  72  88  72  88 /  20  60  20  50                                           
MLB  73  85  73  86 /  20  40  10  60                                           
VRB  73  86  72  87 /  20  40  10  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...LASCODY                                                                
MARINE...BRAGAW                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE/STRENGTH THIS EVENING AND             
PCPN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NORTH OF THE FRONT.                       
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND             
STRONG SE CONUS RDG LEAVING WSW FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE               
WRN LAKES. A H3 JET TO 120 KT EXTENDED FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO NRN               
ONTARIO BTWN THE RDG AND MID/UPR LVL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE                
SFC...A FRONT/TROF EXTENDED FROM LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY TO CNTRL               
UPR MI TO NE NEB. THE TROF ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE BNDRY FROM LK                 
SUPERIOR HAS TRIGGERED TSRA OVER N CNTRL UPR MI WHERE CAPE VALUES               
HAD CLIMBED TO AROUND 2K J/KG. GENERALLY NE MOVEMENT OF HEAVIER                 
CELLS SEEMS LINKED WITH BATCH OF LIFT H3 JET UPR LVL DIV OR WEAK                
SHRTWV THAT SUPPORTED ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO WRN LK SUPERIOR.                 
TSTMS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH LK BNDRY ADVANCING INTO               
SRN MARQUETTE COUNTY. WEAKER LOW LVL CONV INTO S CNTRL UPR MI HAS               
KEPT STRONGER TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. INTERSECTION OF LK MI AND LK                
SUPERIOR BNDRIES NEAR SENEY SUPPORTED ISOLD BUT STRONG TSRA. FARTHER            
S...WEAKER CONV AND AND LESS MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT HAS MINIMIZED                  
COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF SHRA/TSRA. WEAK LOW LVL WIND SHEAR OR 0-6KM                
SHEAR ALONG WITH HIGH FZLVL AND WBZERO HAS ALSO LIMITED HAIL OR WIND            
THREAT. HOWEVER GIVEN STRENGTH OF INSTABILITY TO NEAR 3K J/KG SRN               
UPR MI...SOME ISOLD PULSE-LIKE STORMS MAY HOWEVER PRODUCE HAIL NEAR             
SVR (0.75 INCH) SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.                           
LATER TONIGHT INTO WED...EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THIS                  
EVENING INTO SRN UPR MI. MDLS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED SHRA AND FEW                
TSRA MAY REDEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO MAINLY THE SRN HLF OF UPR             
MI.                                                                             
MDLS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY RECENTLY IN HANDLING SUCH DETAILS AND                  
ETA/GFS STILL SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN AMOUNT/COVERAGE OF                
QPF. MAIN MECHANISM TO SUPPORT -SHRA WILL BE 850-700 FRONTOGENESIS              
AIDED BY RIGHT ENTRANCE FROM JET STREAKS TO THE NORTH.                          
HOWEVER...SINCE THE ETA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STRONG MID LVL                 
MOISTENING...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT AN AREA OF PCPN WOULD               
DEVELOP. MENTION OF ONLY TSTM CHANCE ALSO RETAINED AS EVEN THE GFS              
ONLY DEPICTS WEAK (300-500 J/KG) OF MUCAPE. INCREASING NRLY FLOW OFF            
OF LK SUPERIOR WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NORTH UPR MI WITH MAX            
READINGS NEAR THE SHORE BLO ALREADY COOL GUIDANCE IN THE MID 50S.               
SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING S SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S.              
ANY LINGERING                                                                   
WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER GRT LAKES             
WITH CONFLUENT MID/UPR LVL FLOW DEVELOPING BTWN BTWN RDG INTO THE               
UPR MS VALLEY AND TROF OVER ERN CANADA. ACYC ENE FLOW WILL KEEP COOL            
DRY AIR FLOWING INTO UPR MI...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUPERIOR.                      
FRI...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WERE DELAYED UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON WEST AND             
FRI NIGHT AS GFS/UKMET...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE ARE SLOWER WITH THE               
PROGRESSION OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES IN A            
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN.                                                       
SAT THROUGH TUE...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH             
TIMING OF TROF/FRONT EXITING UPR MI SAT...WITH MAINLY MORNING                   
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER THE E HLF OF UPR MI. MAIN QUESTION FROM SUN              
INTO MON IS STRENGTH/SPEED OF THE MID LVL TROF MOVING OUT OF THE                
PLAINS TOWARD THE GRT LAKES. AT LEAST CHANCE POPS JUSTIFIED BY SUN              
NIGHT INTO MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW                      
DEVELOPMENT...PER UKMET WITH A SLOWER TROF PROGRESSION.                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1035 AM MDT TUE JUN 8 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN            
COLORADO WITH FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH                    
DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND                
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WINDS              
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BRINGING COOL AND MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S               
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA TO THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTH                   
CENTRAL SD.                                                                     
FOR THIS AFT...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NEB AND            
SE SD. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY ACROSS                
WESTERN NEB AND INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD THIS AFT. RUC PROGS                 
ELEVATED CAPE OF OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD LATE THIS               
AFT. WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM IEN             
TO PHP AND POINTS TO THE EAST. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A STORM            
OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER TODD...MELLETTE...AND              
TRIPP CO LATE THIS AFT AND EARLY THIS EVE. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD             
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFT...WITH SOME BREAKS            
OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HAVE TWEEKED HIGH TEMPS               
DOWN A BIT AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY            
COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER            
70S.                                                                            
UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                         
&&                                                                              
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd