FXUS61 KOKX 070830 AAA
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
325 AM EST TUE DEC 7 2004

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH 
STRONG SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PUSHES EAST OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SLOW TO BUDGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE 
AXIS IS JUST OFF TO THE WEST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST FROM 
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BUT NO REAL IMPETUS TO MOVE 
IT NORTH THIS MORNING. COLD AIR IS HOLDING STRONG OVER LOWER HUDSON 
VALLEY AND ESPECIALLY DOWN CONN RIVER VALLEY WITH TEMPS STILL IN MID 
20S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OF EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDING IN 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING SUSTAINING DRIZZLE. 
AREAS IN SOUTHERN CT AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD WARM FROM SOUTH 
AND EAST TO NORTH AND WEST THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW 
AND AID OF SOLAR HEATING. UNTIL THEN...WILL EXTEND THE WINTER 
ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY 
THROUGH MORNING RUSH.

BY DAYBREAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
WITH SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE RIDING UP FRONT SIDE. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON 
FRONT-SIDE OF TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS 
EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING NE TO 
A SIMILAR POSITION. FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION THIS WILL SPELL 
STRENGTHENING THETA-E ADVECTION ON A SOUTHERLY 40-50 KT 850 HPA JET 
INTERACTING WITH STRONG OMEGA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE 
SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STEADY RAINS TO DEVELOP BY LATE 
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TRIPLE PT SEEMS TO PASS 
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH ETA TRYING TO DEVELOPS SFC LOW 
ON TRIPLE POINT WHICH MIGHT BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE 
PASSING TO THE NE. WILL ADD SOME THUNDER FROM 22Z TO 04Z AHEAD OF 
COLD FRONT AS ETA/NGM ARE SHOWING LI S AROUND -1 TO -3 WITH ELEVATED 
CAPES 200 TO 300 J/KG...50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...AND 
DECENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SINCE THIS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR 
NORTH WARM SECTOR GETS WILL KEEP AS SLIGHT CHANCE. 
NONETHELESS...UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE NE OVERNIGHT WITH 
SURFACE LOW TRACKING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRAILING 
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE BY AROUND 06Z. THIS IS A 
BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL EXTEND CAT PRECIP TILL 
AROUND 00Z AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z.
&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING OUT INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES. BREEZY WEST FLOW BEHIND 
STORM WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD BIT OF AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING AS 
SURFACE MOISTURE MIXES UP TO ABOUT 850 HPA AND POOLS UNDER 
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH 850 TEMPS BETWEEN 4-6 C AND 
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM TO UPPER 50S 
DESPITE CLOUD COVER. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY 
CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE...AS LOW ACTUALLY 
WEAKENS DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY 
AS HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF 
MID-WEST INTO OHIO VALLEY AS UPPER TROUGH OVER MIDWEST DIGS 
SOUTHEASTWARD. WEAK GULF SYSTEM WILL GET ENTRAINED IN SW FLOW AHEAD 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOISTURE RIDING UP TOWARDS THE AREA BY 
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES UP THE COLUMN LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR 
LIQUID PRECIP EVERYWHERE. UPPER TROUGH SHARPLY DIGS TO GULF COAST ON 
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW BECOMING STACKED UNDER UPPER LOW AND THEN 
SLOWLY TRACKING NE THOUGH NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS 
WILL CREATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH 
SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO 
WRAP BEHIND SYSTEM ON SATURDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST WITH 
POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER MIX. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY BEHIND 
THE SYSTEM WITH NEXT NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHING ON MONDAY. 
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP...MOSTLY THIS 
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD CAUSE NOTHING MORE THAN 
NUISANCE URBAN TYPE PROBLEMS AS AMOUNTS ARE WELL UNDER FFG.
&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED TODAY FROM WHAT IS GOING ON EARLY THIS 
MORNING. AREA REMAINS IN A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP AT THE 
SURFACE...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO 
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY AS PATTERN CONTINUES. 
EXPECT -DZ/BR TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. WARM FRONT TO THE 
SOUTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
WILL MOISTEN UP...ALLOWING FOR LARGER DROPLET FORMATION...THUS 
ALLOWING MORE OF A RAIN TO DVLP INSTEAD OF THE DRIZZLE. EXPECT THIS 
TRANSFORMATION TO TAKE PLACE LATE THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. 
THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS EVENING AS WARM 
FRONT/TRIPLE POINT MOVES THROUGH. COULD EVEN BE SOME ELEVATED 
THUNDER...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM...JUST A PERIOD OF +RA. 
EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD 06Z (IN ABOUT 24 HRS FROM NOW) AS 
LOWER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE ARE ABLE TO BE MIXED UP A BIT.   -MLE
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS OCCURING ON THE OCEAN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THERE. THINKING THAT THE SOUND AND HARBOR STAY 
IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A GOOD PART OF TODAY. THUS...WIND 
SHOULD STAY JUST BLO SCA AS GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY INVERTED PBL. 
WILL JUST MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT THERE. WILL MENTION THAT 
GALE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS AS GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS...AND BETTER MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS OCCURS ALONG/JUST 
SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR GALES TO BE AFTER 08Z. 
EXPECT GALES ON WEDNESDAY AS CAA/GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS PREVAIL.  
-MLE
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WX ADVISORY TIL 9 AM...ALL ZONES.
NJ...WINTER WX ADVISORY TIL 9 AM...NJZ002>003. 
NY...WINTER WX ADVISORY TIL 9 AM...NYZ067>071. 
MARINE...SCA OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355.
&&

$$

NV/MLE