AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1010 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                     
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN MN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST                   
ACROSS NORTHEAST IA OVERNIGHT.  RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE SOUTHERN EDGE             
OF PRECIP EXTENDING FROM KDEH TO KMCW.  OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PRECIP            
AS FAR SOUTH AS KAEL MN TO AS FAR WEST AS KRWF MN.  21Z RUC KEEPS               
PRECIP TRENDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA.  WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL KEEP                 
FLURRIES IN NORTHERN ZONES OF FORECAST PACKAGE.                                 
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KNOLLHOFF/SMALL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
930 AM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
CONCERNS THIS MORNING WITH UPDATE INCLUDE CLOUD COVER...POPS AND IF             
CLOUD COVER BREAKS...AFTN HIGH TEMPS. 12Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD               
MOISTURE NEAR 3K WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800-900MB. GIVEN            
THIS DRY LAYER...WOULD BELIEVE THAT LOW CLOUD COVER...AT LEAST ACROSS           
THE EASTERN HALF WOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON. STILL LOTS OF CI ON            
VIS IMAGERY HOWEVER...SO WILL KEEP CLOUD FCST AS IS ACROSS AREA.                
MAY TWEAK AFTN TEMPS ACROSS N LA WITH RUC TEMPS SUGGESTING MID 70S              
EVEN WITH ABUNDANT CI.                                                          
ALSO VERY EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDING WAS SUBSTANTIAL CAP AT 900MB LEVEL.           
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S NEEDED TO BREAK CAP AND THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY            
WITHOUT THE HELP OF ANY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TO SPEAK OF. WILL                 
PROBABLY DROP LOW POP THIS AFTN EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED         
VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE CAP IS NOT            
QUITE AS STRONG AND HEAT DEPENDENT...TSRA COULD DEVELOP BUT BELIEVE IT          
WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL. 06Z MESOETA SUGGESTS RAPID TSTM                
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 900 PM AND MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH           
CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...COULD BE BUSY NIGHT. UPDATE OUT          
BY 1130 AM...13                                                                 
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1105 PM EDT MON APR 10 2000                                                     
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF NEW MODEL DATA TO LOOK AT THIS EVENING. UPPER            
AIR DATA FROM THE EVENING SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VRY DRY AIR            
IN PLACE IN THE LOWER TROP HOWEVER. DEW POINT DEPRESSION AT 850MB/S             
AT DTX WAS 34 DEGREES C. BASED ON THE DRY AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOW               
LEVELS AND THE LAST RUN OF THE RUC NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF               
PCPN THROUGH 09Z...WILL TAPER AMOUNTS BACK SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND               
CORRESPONDINGLY TOMORROW. ZONES TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
DUKESHERER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS SNOW. CURRENT REGIONAL 88D LOOP SHOWING SNOW            
BAND ACRS NRN FCST AREA MOVG SE. PER 6.7WV LOOP...THIS APPEARS TO BE            
ASSOCIATED WITH A S/W TROF ACRS NRN MN. SNOW BAND CORRESPONDS TO                
REGION OF DIFF PVA ALONG THE TROF...AND IS OCCURING IN AREA OF WEAK             
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADV/FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...SOME WEAK UPPER              
DIVERGENCE COULD BE OCCURING BETWEEN JET STREAKS. LGT -SN BEHIND                
THIS AREA IS GRADUALLY FADING AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT EXITS. NEITHER              
18Z ETA NOR 21Z RUC DID A GREAT JOB ON MOVEMENT OF VORTICITY CENTER             
OVR NRN MN. WILL GO MORE WITH CURRENT TRENDS ON SATELLITE AND                   
RADAR...AND CLEAN UP CURRENT FCST A BIT ON TIMING. OTRW...EVERYTHING            
LOOKS TO BE OKAY...AND FEW CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.                                 
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
855 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS SNOW HEADLINES AND PSBL BR               
LATER TONIGHT.                                                                  
FROM KMVX-88D REFLECTIVITY RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS WELL                  
DEFINED VORT TRACKS EAST AND INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST.             
THIS ALSO REFLECTED BY RUC WHICH SHIFTS ISEN LIFT AND LOW SAT                   
PRESSURE DEFICITS SOUTH OF FA FROM 02-06Z. WITH ABOVE REASONING DO              
NOT FEEL ADDNL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND WILL CANCEL                
WSW.  CURRENTLY -SN MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH HALF OF FA WITH SOME               
BREAKS INDICATED BY 11-3.9 IMAGERY. WITH HIGH ADVANCING SOUTH WILL              
CONTINUE TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH RECENT               
SNOW AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOIST AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL LIKELY             
SEE SOME PATCHY BR OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE IN UPDATE.                        
COOLEST TEMPS OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN DRIER AIR                    
REFLECTED BY SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS. SNOW COVER WILL ALSO HAVE                  
AFFECT ON TEMPS. WITH CURRENT AREA DEWPOINTS CURRENT READINGS SEEM              
REASONABLE. WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK BUT LITTLE CHANGES EXPECTED IN                
THIS DEPARTMENT.                                                                
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
915 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
LOW CLOUDS CONT TO FILTER INTO NRN CWA DUE TO CHANNELED VORTICITY AT            
500 AND 700 MB. 88D MOSIAC SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE ECHOS HAVE                    
DIMINISHED OR DISSIPATED...ALTHO ANOTHER AREA IS SLIDING SOUTH OUT              
OF SERN ND INTO NERN ND. LATEST RUC SHOWS DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO               
INVADE THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NE. AM ALSO A BIT               
CONCERNED ABOUT FOG CHANCES WITH HIGH DWPTS ACROSS THE NORTH. FEEL              
THAT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK INTO KMBG AREA...BUT SHOULD GO PCLOUDY               
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL NEATEN UP WINDS...SKY CONDS AND PUT IN               
SOME POPS FOR NERN COUNTIES. WILL ALSO ADD PATCHY FOG. UPDATES ZONES            
ALREADY SENT.                                                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
900 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
WIND FIELD ON 01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HINT OF WEAK LO IN NERN                
NEBRASKA...WITH INVERTED TROF EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN CWA               
AND INTO WRN ND.  21Z RUC AND TO SOME EXTENT 18Z MESOETA PICK UP                
WEAKNESS IN WIND FIELD...BUT DO NOT REALLY REFLECT INVERTED TROF TO             
DEGREE AS CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE OBS.                                           
INVERTED TROF LINES UP WELL WITH WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER CLOUDS ON                
11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGE...ESP IN ND WITH CLOUD COVER MORE SCATTERED             
OVER ERN SD.  925MB RH FROM 21Z RUC SEEMS TO CORRELATE WELL WITH LOW            
CLOUDS AS WELL...INCLUDING SCATTERED AREA IN EASTERN SD.  REMAINDER             
OF 21Z RUC FORECAST SHOWS HIGHER RH IN ND SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THRU               
THE NIGHT OVER MOST OF CWA.  GOING FORECAST OF VARIABLE CLOUDS SEEMS            
BEST WAY TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO AND WILL LEAVE IT ALONE.  MAY HAVE             
TO TWEAK WIND FORECAST SOME...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.             
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
810 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
01Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM W CO TO            
KTCC TO NR KCVN TO PLAINVIEW EXTENDING E TO A SFC LOW OVR KCDS.                 
DRYLINE HAS STARTED ITS USUAL NOCTURNAL W MOVEMENT AND EXTENDS FROM             
A TRIPLE POINT JUST WEST OF KCDS AND ALONG A SPUR TO KMAF TO KFST               
LINE. LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION ESP           
OFF THE CAP ROCK WHERE THE 60 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM IS NOT TOO FAR               
FROM KCDS. 21Z RUC DERIVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING INVERSION                 
BEGINNING TO BREAK WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD            
OF THE H5 LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z MAF SOUNDING. WOULD NOT             
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHRA BEGIN TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE             
SFC CONVG BNDRY AFTER 03Z ESP WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.            
BELIEVE THE CURRENT PKG HANDLES THIS WELL.                                      
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE EVENING MENTION AND RECONFIGURE THE                   
NORTHERN ZONES TO REFLECT CURRENT POSITION OF FRONT AT PRESS TIME.              
OTHER THAN THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. WILL TRY TO HAVE NEW               
PKG OUT BY 915 PM.                                                              
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
TAYLOR                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
800 PM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
BOTH THE RUC AND THE ETA INDCTD AN AREA OF PVA OVER NORTHERN MEXICO             
WITH A LOBE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  DOPPLER              
RADAR INDCTD AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING               
NORTHEAST.  THE ETA MODEL INDCTD THE PVA MOVING NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH             
TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS             
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH               
TEXAS SINCE THERE WAS LIGHTNING DETECTED.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS            
TO MAKE IT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS THE            
PVA IMPULSE WILL NOT MOVE ANY FARTHER EAST.  OTHER THEN THAT NO                 
OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.                            
.BRO...SCA GMZ-150-155-170-175.                                                 
55                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1145 AM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                     
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE WITH ONE BETWEEN                
KDDC AND KP28 AND THE OTHER BETWEEN KAMA AND KCDS. WIND SHIFT LINE              
MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ATTM BUT SUSPECT COLD AIR/COLD               
FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ALONG A KCOS-KGCK LINE. 15Z RUC SHOWS THE               
WIND SHIFT LINE STALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS                 
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF KCDS THIS AFTERNOON.                
WILL MODIFY THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE KCDS AREA AND WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH IF LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS INTO THE KCDS AREA THIS AFTERNOON                 
WHICH WOULD BRING IN MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA AND ALSO                  
INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE.                
RIGHT NOW...EXPECT MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT TO THE EAST WITH BETTER                
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OKLAHOMA. THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS                 
STRONG THIS MORNING SO CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE INITIATED BY                  
FRONTAL LIFTING TO OVERCOME THE CAP. THIS LEADS TO BETTER CHANCES               
FOR T-STORMS IN OKLAHOMA BUT COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT BACKBUILD INTO               
THE ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE              
EAST TONIGHT AND THAT SHOULD COVER IT FOR NOW. WILL MODIFY THE SKY              
CONDITIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO DEAL WITH THE VARIABLE CIRRUS.                 
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
TINSLEY                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1029 AM EDT MON APR 10 2000                                                     
BIG STORM FROM YESTERDAY TO MOVE NORTH ACRS EASTERN QUE TODAY. 00Z              
MODELS ALL TOO DEEP AND TOO FAR NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE AT 12Z. WK              
RIDGING TO SLIDE IN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AS ANOTHER                 
STORM SYS LIFTS ACRS THE MS VLY. DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THIS NEXT SYS             
TO START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY 12Z TUE.                       
09Z RUC SHOWS SFC TEMPS ONLY GETTING UP INTO THE U20S-M30S...WHICH              
SEEMS A TAD ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN CURRENT READINGS. WESTERLY SFC                
FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY BUT BECOME WEAKER AS CYCLONIC PRESS GRADIENT              
WEAKENS ACRS THE FA. LOW-LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND STORM             
TO FINALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NE FROM NE/NC VT TODAY. WIND-FLOW ALOFT              
LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY LES WILL BE HOLDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE            
FA TODAY.                                                                       
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND INTO TONITE...BUT                  
MOSTLY TODAY. 00Z ETA SHOWING LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE                        
(APPARENTLY LEFTOVER FROM ANY LES TODAY) TO DRIFT NORTH ACRS THE FA             
TONITE. WK H85 CAA TODAY THRU 06Z TONITE TO BE REPLACED BY WK WAA               
ACRS THE FA BY 12Z TUE. EVEN A LIL WK S/W NOTED MOVING ACRS THE LOWER           
GREAT LKS REGION OVRNITE TONITE...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT SYS              
THAT WE/LL HAVE TO LOOK AT MORE CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.                         
HAVE INTRODUCED MORE SUN IN TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TODAY. T1MAX              
TEMPS ARE 35-40 FOR TODAY AND MESH WELL WITH GOING FORECAST. ONLY               
MINOR FIRST PERIOD TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT                   
CONDITIONS. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES ACRS NE/NC VT ATTM SHOULD BE                 
DYING AND WILL HANDLE ANY THAT REMAIN AFTER MORNING UPDATE PACKAGE              
WITH THE STF.                                                                   
HYDRO-WISE...THE ONLY PROBLEM WILL BE ALONG LK CHAMP OVER THE NEXT              
FEW DAYS AND WILL PROLLY ISSUE STATEMENT BY LATER TODAY ABOUT THAT              
AFTER CONSULTING LOCAL HYDRO MAN.                                               
WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST OBS AND              
LAMP DATA. PNSBTV ISSUED THIS MORNING WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS            
PAST WEEKEND/S STORM. CURRENTLY ASSUMING SHORT TERM BACKUP FOR ALY              
FROM 10 AM TO 1230 PM.                                                          
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
320 AM PDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING            
WARMING TO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COASTAL             
EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE COAST THIS               
MORNING. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES             
CLOSER TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...A             
COOLING TREND WILL DEVELOP WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS              
AND DESERTS AND MORE EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW CLOUDS.               
00Z NCEP MDLS STILL TRICKLING IN FOLLOWING EARLIER PROBLEMS WITH THE            
IBM SUPERCOMPUTER. FOR TODAY...EARLY MON EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS                
SHOWED THE BASE OF THE MARINE INVERSION HAD LOWERED TO BETWEEN 500              
AND 1000 FT. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY                  
SUGGEST THE INVERSION BASE IS NR 1000 FT. THIS SHOULD CHANGE LTL THE            
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH MAINLY DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS. WK CSTL EDDY              
HAS DEVELOPED AS SUGGESTED BY LAST NIGHT'S ETA...THE RUC...AND                  
12Z AND 00Z RUNS OF THE AVN. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE CONFINED                      
TO THE CSTL STRIP THIS MORNING FM SRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY S WITH                 
LCLLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ON THE ORANGE COUNTY CSTL PLAIN NR HIGHER              
TERRAIN AND NR THE MESAS OF SAN COUNTY. KSOX AND KNKX 88D VAD WINDS             
SHOW LOW LVL ELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT. WHILE OFSHR WINDS FOR VLYS SHOULD            
BE LIMITED... MAIN EFFECT OF WK LOW LVL ELY FLOW WL BE TO DELAY THE             
SEA BREEZE TODAY. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE LWR AND STRONG                 
MARINE INVERSION...SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY              
TODAY IN THE VLYS AND INLAND CSTL SXNS. LTL CHANGE FOR WED AS                   
HEIGHTS CHANGE LTL...EXCEPT MINOR COOLING WL SPREAD INLAND SOMEWHAT             
FM THE IMMEDIATE CST AS WK INTERIOR OFSHR FLOW WKNS AND WK ONSHR                
FLOW DEVELOPS. COOLING WL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THU WITH BREEZY                 
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE NRN DESERTS AND MTNS WITH MAIN                     
DEEPENING OF MARINE LYR FOR SW CA BEGINNING THU NIGHT.                          
EXTENDED...NEW MRF STILL NOT IN...BUT EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUPPORTS                
COOLER AND BREEZY WITH A DEEPER MARINE LYR FOR SW CA FRI AND SAT                
WITH ANY RAIN REMAINING N OF SW CA. BY SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SOME            
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE EXTENDED MDLS...BUT ALL MDLS ARE              
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP UPR TROUGH ALG THE W CST.                      
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
339 AM MDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
SATELLITE AND RUC SHOWING CLOSED LOW OVER WRN NMEX AND MOVING SLOWLY            
EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST THRU KFMN/KCEZ/KDRO FROM                     
CONVECTION OVR ERN NMX AND S/CNTRL CO. SE FLOW AROUND S.D. HIGH                 
CENTER ENHANCING SELY VALLEY WIND IN GJT AND MTJ THIS MORNING. SFC              
LOW N OF BIG BEND AREA AND 500 MB CLOSED LOW OVER NW NM PROJECTED TO            
WEAKEN AND MOVE ESE TDA...WITH MOISTURE AND CLDS ERODING OVER CWA.              
DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG LINE FROM KPGA TO KCYS TO SLIDE SLOWLY SE TDA            
WITH CLDS/PCPN REMAINING SE THIS LINE. WITH LESS CLOUD OVER NRN HALF            
OF AREA TO COUNTERACT COOLING IN LEE OF NMEX SYSTEM...XPC HIGH TEMPS            
TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE TDA.                                                      
S RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST WED...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BUT LOOKS LIKE           
AVN MIGHT BE OVER PREDICTIING FIRST DAY OF WARMING TREND AS IT HAS              
BEEN PRONE TO DO OVER THE LAST TWO WEEKS. PREDICTED NUMBERS TOO HIGH            
FOR PREDICTED THICKNESS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SWLY THURSDAY WITH             
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. NEXT WEAK WAVE PROGGED INTO THE AREA                  
FRIDAY                                                                          
...WITH SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU EARLY SAT MORNING.                
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS PROGGED FOR SUN. WITH                      
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUING MIDRANGE MODELS NOT SHOWING THE BEST             
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES IN THE            
WEST.   CUOCO                                                                   
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
300 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS AT ABOUT 30N WAS PROVIDING LONG FETCH            
OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.  CONSIDERABLE STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO             
STREAM TOWARDS THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND...WITH MOST REPORTING SITES            
HAVING BROKEN CEILINGS.                                                         
FORECAST...SYNOPTIC FEATURES CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                   
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND              
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GOOD FETCH OF EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW.  MID/UPPER             
RIDGE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DRY DAY.  THE RIDGE            
IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH PUSHING                 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO AT OR                
ABOVE 60 DEGREES AND THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS SIGNAL WIDELY                 
SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS BY THEN.  THINK THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT              
THE STEERING LEVEL WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE                
COAST...MAINLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTH.                                            
EXTENDED...NO NEW MODEL DATA TO LOOK AT BUT WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL             
TROUGH APPROACHING AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...THERE SHOULD BE                
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTENING FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY                   
THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                               
FIRE WX...DEW POINTS ARE ABOVE 50 EVERYWHERE AND WITH CONTINUED                 
MODIFICATION BY EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW...MIN RH WILL STAY 40 PERCENT OR            
HIGHER OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY...AND INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF               
THE WEEK.                                                                       
MARINE...TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. POSITION OF               
RIDGE AXIS SUGGESTS SOME NORTH/SOUTH CONTRAST ACROSS THE WATERS.                
RUC MODEL SHOWS NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT SO PLAN TO              
GO WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT IN THE SOUTH LEG AND 15 KNOTS             
IN THE NORTH LEG TODAY.                                                         
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
DAB BB 077/061 079/063 012                                                      
MCO BB 081/061 085/062 001                                                      
MLB BB 078/064 080/066 022                                                      
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...KELLY                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIMINARY                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
300 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
...PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION. MODELS JUST COMING IN...                             
AT 1 AM CDT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN IL AND EASTWARD AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING WESTWARD ACROSS              
CENTRAL MO TO CENTRAL OK.  ALOFT TWO SEPARATE STREAMS OF ENERGY OF              
INTEREST WITH ONE SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS              
AND THE RUC INDICATING ELONGATED SHEAR VORTICITY FROM THE PLAINS TO             
NORTHERN IL NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. PROFILERS AT 850/700 MB              
INDICATE A TROUGH APPROACHING THE MS RIVER. CURIOUSLY SURFACE TROUGH            
LAGGING THIS FEATURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN TO EASTERN NE. SFC                   
FEATURE PICKED UP ON 18Z MESO-ETA RUN AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY FADE               
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. MAIN EFFECT ON SURFACE WIND FORECASTS              
TODAY.                                                                          
MODELS LATE IN COMING IN AND ONLY 12 HR ETA/24 HR AVN AT THIS                   
WRITING. PLUS RUC. LATEST RUC FORECASTS SNOW FROM NORTHERN STREAM               
SYSTEM APPEARS DESTINED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA....FITTING                  
CURRENT TRENDS.  WILL HAVE TO BE SLOWER ON CLEARING THAN PREVIOUS               
FORECAST TRENDS GIVEN EXTENT OF SOLD STRATUS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH.             
AVN ACTUALLY SHOWS BETTER LOW LEVEL DRYING TO OUR SOUTH...BEHIND                
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...SO COULD CLEAR MORE QUICKLY THERE. SOME               
HINTS OF THIS TREND OVER NORTHWEST MO AT THIS TIME. AFTER                       
CLEARING...POSSIBILITY OF FOG TONIGHT WITH NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL               
DRYING. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT LATER MODEL DATA BEFORE DECIDING ON                
THIS. AND ANY ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO FORECAST DEPENDENT ON RECEIPT OF            
FULL MODEL RUNS.                                                                
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
KAPLAN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
330 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE TIMING OF WHEN THE               
RAIN WILL START AND WHEN IT WILL END.                                           
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUD TOPS COOLING OVER SOUTHERN AR              
WITH SOME -RA STARTING TO OCCUR IN THAT REGION. FURTHER NORTH IN SE             
KS THERE IS SOME LIGHTNING STROKES BEING PICKED FROM A CONVECTIVE               
COMPLEX TRYING TO DEVELOP THERE. OVER OUR REGION...WE ARE CONTINUING            
TO GET MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER WITH SOME SPRINKLES. 06Z MSAS            
DATA SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP OVER                  
CENTRAL AR WITH THE THETAE RIDGE IN CENTRAL MO. WE SHOULD CONTINUE              
TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE LLJ              
CONTINUES TO KICK IN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST TO              
OUR CWFA DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE               
DELAYED A LITTLE FROM THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WHICH IS DEPICTED BY                   
THE 06Z RUC. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME SINCE THE                
COORIDOR OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISUTRE REMAINS FURTHER WEST. WE BUMPED              
UP TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS THE RAIN                
HOLDS OFF FOR A FEW HOURS AND WE ARE OFF TO A WARM START.                       
FOR TONIGHT WE FOLLOWED CLOSEST TO THE 18Z MESOETA AND THE 12Z AVN              
MODEL RUNS SINCE THEY FIT THE CURRENT SCENARIO THE BEST WITH SLOWING            
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO TEND TO DELAY THE ENDING OF             
THE RAIN...BUT WE WILL TAKE A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z ETA RUN BEFORE              
WE SHIP THINGS OUT TO SEE IF THIS FITS THAT SCENARIO. OTHERWISE...WE            
WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE ALONE WITH NO OTHER                 
CHANGES EXPECTED UNTIL WE TAKE A PEEK AT THE 00Z RUNS FROM THE                  
ETA/NGM.                                                                        
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
COX                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
316 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
UPPER LOW OVER AZ THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND                 
BE OVER THE TX/NM BORDER BY 12/00Z AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO TX               
ON WED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST                 
KN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK INTO WEST TX...BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE               
TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATEST RUC HAS FRONT                  
AT 18Z TODAY FROM NORTHERN AR TO NEAR SPS. THE LATEST MESOETA...FROM            
10/18Z HAS FRONT MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...BUT SINCE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE           
A BETTER POSITION AT THIS TIME...WILL NEED TO SLOW FRONT DOWN SOME.             
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOME ACROSS THE OK/KN BORDER NORTH OF THE FRONT           
THIS MORNING...IF THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THEY MAY HELP PUSH           
FRONT SOUTH MORE IN LINE WITH THE MESOETA. STRONG CAP ACROSS THE                
REGION AT THIS TIME SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY...AND OLD MODELS FORECAST               
FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KM OF CAPE...WITH -3 TO -7 L.I. IN THE WARM                 
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY            
AND THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NIGHT AHEAD             
OF A VORT MAX...WHERE ENOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT...DESPITE THE STRONG               
CAP. THE LATEST RUC DOES NOT DEVELOP AS MUCH DIV WITH THE 110 KNOT              
JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS DID...IF THIS           
IS TRUE...STORMS MAY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS TODAY. BUT WILL SEE IF STORMS           
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER OK...BEFORE MAKING FINAL DECISION ON POPS              
FOR TODAY. FIRST GUESS FOLLOWS. MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER              
TODAY...BUT SINCE NEW DATA IS JUST STARTING TO COME IN...WILL WAIT              
AND LET THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE ONE IF NEEDED.                                      
SHV 72/57/68/55  7665  MLU 72/57/68/55  6655                                    
TXK 70/55/64/53  7665  TYR 73/56/67/55  7665                                    
LFK 75/59/71/57  6665                                                           
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
IV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA                                         
300 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
CURRENT IR SAT INDICATING GOOD MID LEVEL ENERGY ADVECTING TOWARD THE            
ENE OUT OF E TX WITH THE PRIMARY H5 LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE FOUR                
CORNERS.  INITIAL THINKING IS THIS MID LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED              
EMBEDDED SHRTWVS WILL MOVE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE N SECTIONS OF THE               
STATE LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH DO NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME               
ENERGY TO GET SHEERED SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH              
12Z ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY AS          
INDICATED BY LI'S GOING NEG...WILL HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POPS                
STARTING TODAY WITH A STRONGER EMPHASIS TOWARD THE N SECTIONS OF THE            
CWA.  THE MAIN ENERGY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 LOW SHOULD STILL              
TRACK TOWARD THE SE AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED LEADING INTO            
THU.  BELIEVE SOME EMBEDDED SHRTWVS WILL FIRE EWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN             
SYSTEM THROUGH WED AND LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED.  WITH AN                      
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL PROGGED TO TRACK AHEAD OF THE H5              
LOW CROSSING TX ON WED AND APPROACHING SE LA...BELIEVE THIS ALONG               
WITH MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WARRANTS THE POTENTIAL FOR               
THUNDER WED AND THU BEFORE CLEARING ON FRI.  00Z MODEL DELAYS OUT OF            
NCEP DOES PREVENT A BETTER DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE PRESENT TREND.              
AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS THINKING SIDING MORE                
WITH THE 12Z AVN AND 18Z MESOETA ALTHOUGH CURRENT RUC MODEL LOOKS TO            
BE VERIFYING THIS THINKING INDICATING A GOOD PVA AXIS STRETCHING                
ACROSS E TX TOWARD W LA.  FWC AND FAN GUIDANCE WHICH SLOWLY HAS BEEN            
TRICKLING IN LOOK PRETTY CONSISTENT ALTHOUGH WILL GENERALLY TREND               
CLOSER TO THE AVN.                                                              
MCB 75/57/75/55 2254  BTR 78/60/77/58 2253                                      
MSY 79/62/77/60 1242  BIX 75/63/74/60 1242                                      
.NEW...NONE                                                                     
LA...NONE                                                                       
MS...NONE.                                                                      
09                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS WITH -SN TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.            
WV IMAGERY SHOWED TROF OVER HUDSON BAY BETWEEN RDG OVER WEST NOAM               
AND NORTH ATLANTIC REX BLOCK. SEVERAL SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN FAST FLOW             
FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY AND GRT LAKES. ONE SHRTWV                
FROM MN INTO UPR MI WITH ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN WAS                 
BECOMING SHEARED OUT AND WEAKENING AS IT RACES EAST. IR LOOP SHOWED             
CLOUD TOPS WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY. ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV WAS MOVING              
TOWARD NW MN FROM SRN SASK/MANITOBA. AREA RADARS INDICATED BROAD                
AREA OF -SN FROM NE MN AND WI INTO UPR MI SUPPORTED BY MODEST                   
850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM FIRST SHRTWV. RETURNS HAVE BECOME              
SCT OVER WRN HLF OR UPR MI HOWEVER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN            
INCH MAINLY CONFINED TO SRN UPR MI FROM IMT TO ESC WITH LIQUID                  
EQUIVALENT PCPN AMOUNTS FROM 0.05 TO 0.07. FARTHER EAST THOUGH...NO             
-SN REPORTED BY 08Z AT ERY AND ISQ DESPITE PRESENCE OF WEAK                     
REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR OVER ALL OF ERN UPR MI. WITH STRONGEST                  
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...DRY LYR PER 00Z APX AND GRB SNDGS               
HAS KEPT SNOW FROM REACHING SFC SO FAR.                                         
00Z/11 MODELS MORE THAN 5 HRS LATE. SO...HAVE LEANED ON 18Z/10 ETA              
AND 03Z/11 RUC FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO            
FCST BEYOND TONIGHT. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z RUN SHOWS TREND TOWARD LATER             
ARRIVAL OF SHRTWV AND UPWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AREAS OF           
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS FIRST SHRTWV MOVES TO THE                 
EAST. BROAD AREA OF WEAK QVECTOR CONVERGENCE LINGERS OVER AREA THIS             
MORNING WITH WEAK DPVA. WITH WEAKENING TREND...EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL            
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT               
MOST. AFTER LULL IN -SN THIS AFTERNOON 18Z/10 ETA AND PEEK AT                   
00Z/ETA/AVN SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW WILL REDEVELOP OVER WRN UPR MI TOWARD            
00Z AND INTO CNTRL AND EAST LATER THIS EVENING...SUPPORTED BY NEXT              
SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF. WL LEAVE SCT -SHSN AND CHANCE              
POPS WITH MDL QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS SUGGESTING SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL              
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. LK-H85 DLT/T TO AROUND -10C WOULD            
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. HOWEVER...WIND FCST MAINLY SW              
DURING BEST LIFT. VEERING WINDS TO WNW WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY BAND                 
ORGANIZATION. LATER THIS EVENING...WINDS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL             
WNW WITH INVERSION HGHT TO NEAR 700 MB. EVEN THOUGH DLT/T ONLY                  
AROUND -13C...EXPECT CONTINUED -SHSN WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL                 
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
350 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
SYNOPSIS...SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS SPREAD                  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HELP OF THE WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH            
SYSTEM. SNOW HAS SPREAD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEMS.              
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS IN SOUTHERN LOWER WITH THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH             
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH DYNAMICS. THERE IS A BAND OF                
SNOW THAT RUNS FROM NEAR ACB ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL              
WISCONSIN.                                                                      
WITH THE COMPUTER PROBLEMS AT NCEP, CAUSING THE MODELS TO BE RUN 5              
HOURS LATE WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE BASED ON                
CURRENT DATA AND WILL PROBABLY UPDATE LATER ONCE THE NEW MODEL SUTIE            
IS IN. 18Z MESOETA AND 3Z RUC SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT              
SITUATION. WILL USE THESE FOR THE NEAR TERM. CANADIAN 00Z LOOKS                 
REASONABLE AS WELL.                                                             
TODAY...BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, RADAR TRENDS AND THE RUC, THE                    
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM              
THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS HEADING INTO            
CENTRAL LOWER AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWFA. HAVE MOVED THE                 
LIKELY POPS NEAR THE STRAITS TO CATEGORICAL. 18Z MESOETA SHOWS THAT             
THERE WILL BE LITTLE QPF GENERATED WITH THIS AND THAT THE HIGHER                
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE NEARER CENTRAL LOWER. SO            
WILL GO WITH AN INCH OR LESS NEAR THE STRAITS AND KEEP THE 1 TO 3               
WORDING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                  
TONIGHT...BASED ON THE 18Z MESOETA TRENDS AND THE 12Z AVN AND THE               
00Z CANADIAN, CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD. H5 TROUGH MOVES THROUGH               
WITH 850 RH >65% AND 850 TEMPERATURES -10C OR LOWER AND 1000-850                
WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW              
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE SOUTHEAST ZONES PARTLY                  
CLOUDY. NORTHEAST MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS WELL.               
WEDNESDAY...THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY SHUTTING OFF THE             
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE H5 TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF OVER THE EAST                  
COAST. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THE SNOW SHOWERS ENDING IN THE MORNING               
WITH PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON...THIS LOOKS GOOD.                                  
COORDINATED WITH GRR.                                                           
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
215 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION...STILL WAITING ON NCEP               
MODELS.  HAVE LOOKED AT RUC AND CANADIAN DATA AND SEE NO BIG CHANGES            
THAT NEED TO BE MADE TO CURRENT FORECASTS.                                      
CURRENTLY...SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA.  FROM                  
PROFILER DATA...850 FRONT PROBABLY IN EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF                  
FORECAST AREA.  WATCHING COOLING TOPS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON IR.                
THINK THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  WILL               
KEEP AN EYE ON IT...TO SEE IF NEED TO INTRODUCE ANY POPS TO EXTREME             
SOUTHERN ZONES. BIG QUESTION IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUD WORDING FOR                 
TODAY FORECASTS. LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS IN                
IOWA WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS              
MORNING.  MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON.                         
SURFACE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OF AREA TODAY...STALLING IN             
SOUTHERN PART OF COUNTRY AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN                       
UTAH-ARIZONA VICINITY...MOVES EAST.  LOOKING AT PRESSURE FALLS ON               
00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS...THINK THIS WAVE SHOULD STAR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH             
TO KEEP US DRY.  NORTHERN STREAM WILL TURN INTO A FAST ZONAL FLOW               
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY...AND ON THE               
MILD SIDE.                                                                      
CANADIAN MODEL STILL SHOWS NEXT WAVE COMING AT US LATE FRIDAY INTO              
SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN FORECAST.             
NO NEW FWC OR FAN GUIDANCE TO DISCUSS.  FLP GUIDANCE FROM 02Z WAS               
INDICATING MID 50S FOR KC AREA AND ONLY NEAR 50 KIRKSVILLE.  GIVEN              
COOLER AIR ALREADY MOVING IN BEHIND COLD FRONT...THINK THIS IS IN               
BALLPARK...SO WILL SCALE BACK HIGHS JUST A BIT FOR TODAY FROM                   
CURRENT PACKAGE.                                                                
.EAX...NONE                                                                     
PC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
230 AM CDT MON APR 10 2000                                                      
HOPING TO GET A GLANCE AT AT LEAST SOME NEW DATA BEFORE RELEASE TIME.           
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW CENTER NEAR LBB VICINITY...WITH                
BOUNDARY EXTENDING UP TO NEAR STL THEN DOWN TO NEAR ROA. THIS IS                
VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z POSITION ON MON/12Z ETA RUN. NEW RUC THROUGH 15Z            
AND OLD ETA MODEL STILL SUGGESTING WIDEPSREAD DEVELOPMENT TODAY                 
...BEGINNING IN THE LATE MORNING AS DEEP MOISTURE AXIS MOVES OVER               
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER               
SUPPORT ALLOWING FOR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG                  
SWARD OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING THE FOCUS TO THE S AND E ON WED. BOUNDARY            
WILL NOT LIKELY MOVE VERY FAR S HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK MID/UPPER                    
SITUATION. WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE...HIGH CHANCE POPS                  
ELSEWHERE. 07                                                                   
BNA 67/49/63 875                                                                
CSV 66/46/61 775                                                                
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
930 AM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS N FLORIDA RESULTING IN E/SE FLOW ACROSS CWA. WINDS            
SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF               
RIDGE. EXTENSIVE STABLE STRATO-CU FIELD OVER THE MARINE AREA                    
CONTINUES TO ADVECT ONSHORE...WITH SATELLITE TRENDS REVEALING A                 
DECREASING TREND LAST 6 HOURS. WITH MORNING XMR SOUNDING INDICATING             
A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER JUST BELOW STRONG 850 MB INVERSION...                
EXPECT DIURNAL VERTICAL MIXING TO CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER.                
WILL UPDATE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR MORE OPTIMISTIC CLOUD COVER THIS                 
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MARINE...BUOY 41009 REPORTING SUSTAINED WIND AT 15 KT...IN LINE WITH            
CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST RUC SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MARINE             
LEG. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST...WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS NORTH...AND            
SCEC SOUTH. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION GREATER            
THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH DUE TO            
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW.                                                             
FIRE WX...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIN RH OF 35 TO            
40 PERCENT OVER THE NW INTERIOR OF CWA FOR A MINIMAL DURATION. WITH             
LIGHTER WINDS INLAND...NO FIRE WX HIGHLIGHTS REQUIRED.                          
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CRISTALDI                                               
PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1052 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                     
FLO BCMG NEAR NEUTRAL FROM CYCLONIC OVER CWA WITH PLENTY OF LL                  
MOISTURE FM 925 MB AND DOWN.  WITH HI TO WEST...DON'T SEE A BIG                 
POTENTIAL FOR SUN THIS AFTERNOON.  LATEST RUC AND ETA PROGS INDICATE            
THIS WITH 80 PERCENT RH OR GREATER AT 925 MB AND 60MB AGL THROUGH               
LATE AFTERNOON.  OMA SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE LOWER 50S AT BEST IN SW            
WITH FULL SUN.  WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS AND TEMPS IN               
ZFP UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                         
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
945 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN FOR AFTERNOON IS AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS. KABR AND                
KMPX SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE YET THIS               
MORNING BUT DIRER AIR MOVING IN FROM NORTH. NEW 12Z ETA HOLDING ON              
TO SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN EASTERN CWA BUT GENERAL DRYING TREND              
FOR AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE CU DURING AFTERNOON.              
WILL HOLD ON TO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. PROJECTED TEMPS OFF             
SOUNDINGS AT RUC FORECAST SURFACE TEMPS SUGGEST MOSTLY 40S BUT CLOUDY           
AREAS MAY HOLD "NEAR" 40.                                                       
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1105 AM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                     
LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE              
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES...APPROACHING NW WI AND ACROSS MUCH             
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE BADGER STATE.                          
MEANWHILE...VSBY AND FOG/VSBY SATELLITE PRODUCTS INDICATE SOME CU               
DEVELOPING IN A CLEAR SLOT BETWEEN THE HIGHER CLOUDS...AND ALSO                 
ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD OVER NORTHERN MN.                   
LATEST RUC KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND              
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE 500 MB             
FLOW. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS SHOW IT FAIRLY UNSTABLE BELOW 700 MB              
WITH 850:700 MB LAPSE RATES FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST             
AREA FROM 6-6.5 C/KM. THIS POINTS TO CU DEVELOPMENT IN ANY BREAK IN             
THE CLOUDS DECK...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWER POSSIBILITIES. WILL               
HAVE TO CONTINUE MENTION OR ADD MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW                          
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON TO MOST ZONES. ALSO...WILL KEEP                 
CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT               
DUE TO THE EXTENDED CLOUD COVER.                                                
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
RIECK                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
300 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
CURRENT SHV RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTH             
LA WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IN NE TEXAS               
AND SW ARKANSAS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING                 
FARTHER WEST NORTH OF TYR.                                                      
UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF 4 CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE               
NORTH TX PANHANDLE BY 12/12Z AND WEAKEN LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES            
INTO NE TX THURSDAY MORNING. NGM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND PUTS UPPER              
LOW IN CENTRAL TX AT 48 HOURS...AND THEN ACROSS CWA THURSDAY. FRONT             
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AR INTO SE OK TO NEAR SPS IN NORTH CENTRAL               
TX. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT              
AND WEDNESDAY AND REACH SE TEXAS AND MESOETA PUTS BOUNDARY IN SE                
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RUC AND MESOETA PUTS                
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND             
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON             
AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SE TEXAS ALONG FRONT              
INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST HERE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ONLY 20-25 KNOTS IT               
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS MESOETA SHOWS AN MCS DEVELOPING AND            
MOVING TO THE SE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT. BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE              
IN EAST TEXAS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN LA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE                   
REACHED THE UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. NCEPS 6 HOUR TOTALS FOR                   
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ISSUED AT 18Z SEEM TO BE GOOD WITH HEAVIEST               
PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES OF ABOUT ONE INCH.             
HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING OVER EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD             
BE ENOUGH FOR 24 HOUR FORECAST WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY            
OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF CWA. WILL KEEP A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN             
EAST TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AREAS TONIGHT AHEAD OF                    
BOUNDARY AND FRONT.                                                             
SHV 60/69/57/70  7655 MLU 59/67/55/68 6655                                      
TXK 55/63/53/67  8654 TYR 59/67/55/68 8755                                      
LFK 61/74/57/72  6665                                                           
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
09                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO MYR CCF                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
244 PM EDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
DISC:  FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE              
CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF AREA. ALL MODELS SHOW DAMMING           
TO SOME EXTENT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD AND IS CENTERED OVER            
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  AVN MODELS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WAVE IN THE               
SOUTHERN STREAM BUT ALL MODELS SHOW THE WEAKENING TREND THOUGHT THE             
PERIOD.  ETA INSTABILITIES ARE SHOWING CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND           
LIS OF -1 TO -2 ALONG THE COAST JUST AHEAD OF FROPA. MOISTURE VALUES            
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT WITH PWS AROUND 1.25. SO THERE IS A                      
POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER.                       
WITH WINDS OFF THE COAST AFTER FROPA EXPECT WATER TEMPS IN THE LOWER            
60S TO HAVE A LARGE SAY IN TEMP FORECAST FOR COASTAL COUNTIES                   
CWF: CURRENTLY WINDS ARE RUNNING AROUND 15 KTS FROM SOUTH AND SEAS              
OF 3 FT.  RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE                     
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODELS ARE SHOWING WINDS NOT EXCEEDING SCA UNTIL AFTER        
FROPA SO WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SCA WED NIGHT.                                   
PRELIM CCF...                                                                   
ILM 060/073 052/060 055 162                                                     
FLO 057/074 051/063 053 152                                                     
MYR 062/071 056/062 053 162                                                     
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
HAWKINS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
214 PM CDT TUE APR 11 2000                                                      
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS SURFACE FEATURES WITH COLD FRONT S OF KMAF...           
TO S OF ABI...TO MWL...WITH DRYLINE FROM NEAR FST TO W OF P07. MAPS             
DATA (LI'S) CONFIRM OUR THINKING OF MOST UNSTABLE AIR FROM AROUND               
KMAF TO S-SE CWFA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES WITH LI'S FROM MINUS 4 TO 6             
AND BEGINNING TO SEE SOME TCU IN ERN BREWSTER CO ATTM. 15Z RUC DATA             
SHOWS STRONGEST QG FORCING IS STILL W BUT SPREADING E. THIS WITH                
STEEP MID LEVEL LR'S 8-8.5 C/KM AND DWPNTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE             
TO PLAY OUT SCENARIO FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH           
CAPES VALUES POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH...2000-3000 J/KG. VWS NOT             
THAT IMPRESSIVE IN WARM SECTOR (30-40 KT) BUT WITH SUCH HIGH CAPES              
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SEVERE. POST-FRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION                   
POSSIBLE ALSO WITH STEEP LR'S. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND             
APPARENT SLOW EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LEADS TO AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS             
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHC TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TMW IN MOST AREAS           
WITH E WIND...LAGGING UPPER TROF...AND APPROACH OF 5H COLD POOL. MID            
LEVEL RIDGING BY THURSDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MSTR DOESN'T GO TOO FAR E.              
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FORMATION OF DRYLINE FRIDAY/SATURDAY            
WITH INCREASED W MID LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES THRU SRN                  
ROCKIES. FOR NOW WILL OPT TO GO WITH A DRY FCST IN EXTENDED AS SYSTEM           
SEEMS A LITTLE TOO FAR N FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLD TSTMS.                   
PRELIMS                                                                         
MAF  44/70/41/74    4320                                                        
LSA  41/65/41/71    3320                                                        
E41  44/70/41/74    4320                                                        
6R6  48/72/46/77    4320                                                        
MRF  41/67/40/73    22-0                                                        
CNM  45/70/42/78    4320                                                        
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
GPM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx