AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
730 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY: ENDING PICTURE PERFECT DAY...EVENING SHOWS CLEAR AND                 
CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL AREA. TEMPS/DEW POINTS FROM MID                    
60S/AROUND 60 SE ALA TO AROUND 70/UPPER 60S COASTS. 24 HR TEMP/DEW              
POINT PLOT SHOWS LOCAL AIR MASS 4-8 DEGREES WARMER AND MOISTER THAN             
SAME TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS GENERALLY CALM.                                      
DISCUSSION: INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF FOG MAIN FORECAST CONCERN                 
OVERNIGHT. MSAS/SATELLITE H2O SHOWS BROAD UPR RIDGE FROM DEEP S TX              
HI EWD TO ACROSS GULF AND N FLA. MESO-ETA FORECASTS PREDAWN WINDS TO            
REMAIN CALM OR NEAR CALM VEERING TO ENE. WITH ADDED LO LVL MOISTURE             
AND CALM WINDS...NOTICEABLY BETTER CHANCE OF DENSE FOG COMPARED TO              
LAST NIGHT. EXPECT...SE ALA/SE GA TO BE TOO DRY TO YIELD MORE THAN              
VERY PATCHY DENSE FOG. LIKEWISE...TEMPS TOO MILD FOR GOOD                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALL BUT NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS                   
ELSEWHERE. SO PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...MNLY                 
NORMALLY FOG PRONE AREAS LIKE VLD AND TLH...BUT NOT EXPECTING                   
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR CONDS IN CASE DENSE FOG ADVISORY             
BECOMES NECESSARY FOR SECTIONS OF CWFA. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN                   
INHERITED FORECAST OF DEVELOPING PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS CWFA.                  
MARINE:EVENING BUOYS SHOW 5-10 KNOTS AND 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 10              
KNOTS AND 2-3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. EXPECT SOME INCREASE OVERNIGHT SO             
INHERITED FORECAST LUKS GOOD BUT WILL MONITOR B4 ISSUING CWF. FOR               
OVERINGHT...WILL INSERT PATCHY DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO AOB             
1 MILE NEARSHORE.                                                               
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THU AFTERNOON ALL BUT 4 ERN BIG BEND ZONES.             
$$                                                                              
BLOCK                                                                           
___________________________________________________________________             
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE UPPER            
LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER DEEP S TX WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING               
EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE            
SATELLITE PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS. AN                 
UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF            
THE U.S. E COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. A              
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY, SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING                  
THROUGH THE 70S.                                                                
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR                    
FORECAST THINKING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN JUST A BIT OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES              
EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL              
LIKEWISE BE DEPRESSED SWD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO SE                  
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALREADY             
MENTIONED IN GRIDS/ZONES. WED LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY NOV            
STANDARDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP JUST SHY OF THE RECORDS            
(SEE BELOW). WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN OUR ZONES. HAVE                  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FOR THU AS THE TIMING             
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.             
ALSO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE LIFT INDICATED WITH THE SYSTEM              
BY ANY MODEL. PLAN TO INCLUDE BREEZY WORDING FOR THU AFTERNOON                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD TO OUR N ON THU                  
NIGHT. MAV TEMPS FRI MORNING LOOK TOO COLD FOR AN AIRMASS OF PACIFIC            
ORIGIN. PLAN TO GO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE MOS.                                  
SOME RECORDS MAX TEMPS FOR NOV 12 ARE INCLUDED BELOW.                           
TLH  85 IN 1927                                                                 
AAF  82 IN 1986                                                                 
PFN  85 IN 1985                                                                 
CTY  85 IN 1961                                                                 
MOULTRIE     85 IN 1986                                                         
TIFTON       85 IN 1946                                                         
DOTHAN AREA  82 IN 1986                                                         
GENEVA       82 IN 1986                                                         
ENTERPRISE   82 IN 1966                                                         
OZARK        85 IN 1938                                                         
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS ARE BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS AND             
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER             
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAUTION WINDS THU AFTERNOON               
AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.                             
.FIRE WX...NO PROBLEMS THROUGH WED NIGHT. ON THU, BOTH MAV AND FWC              
GUIDANCE BRING US CLOSE TO LOW RH DURATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON. THIS,             
COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR EITHER 20 FT WINDS NEAR 15 KT OR HIGH               
DISPERSION, WILL JUSTIFY POSTING A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THU.                       
.EXTENDED...SAT THROUGH TUE. ONCE AGAIN, SAW NO GOOD REASON TO                  
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE 00Z GFS, AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6. IT IS IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF FROM MON, WHICH WAS                 
AVAILABLE THROUGH 96 HOURS OR 12Z FRI. BEYOND THAT TIME, WE SEE THAT            
TODAY'S GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR TO BRING THE                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE IT             
DEVELOPS MORE OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS               
VALLEY ON MON. HPC PROGS ARE EVEN SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONT EWD.                
POPS WERE PULLED FROM SAT-SAT NIGHT FORECASTS WITH SUN POPS TONED               
DOWN TO ISOLATED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY               
12Z MON, RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE GULF ON MON. TRENDED POPS            
FROM 30 NW TO 10 SE, THEN CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE.              
HELD OFF ON SHOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE IN DEFERENCE TO THE                
MODEL'S TRENDS AND THE HPC SOLUTION. THIS IMPACTED PRIMARILY TUE                
AFTERNOON'S WIND, POP, AND SKY GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS, THE GFS MOS HAS             
BEEN TOO COLD WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE LAST SEVERAL FRONTS. TEMPERED               
MOS BY BLENDING IT WITH INHERITED FORECAST. THIS MEANT TEMPS IN THE             
LOWER 40S MOST AREAS SAT MORNING, RATHER THAN THE 30S.                          
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 55 84 57 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
PFN 62 81 62 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
DHN 59 82 59 69 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
ABY 55 82 58 70 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
VLD 55 84 59 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
CTY 56 83 57 78 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THU AFTERNOON ALLL BUT 4 ERN BIG BEND ZONES.            
$$                                                                              
18-WOOL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
133 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE UPPER            
LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER DEEP S TX WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING               
EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS ALSO EVIDENT ON THE            
SATELLITE PICTURE AS WELL AS THE REGIONAL MORNING SOUNDINGS. AN                 
UPPER LOW IS EVIDENT OFF THE SRN CA COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF            
THE U.S. E COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES. A              
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOCALLY, SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH TEMPS RISING                  
THROUGH THE 70S.                                                                
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRI. LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR                    
FORECAST THINKING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN JUST A BIT OVER THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES              
EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE NATION. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL              
LIKEWISE BE DEPRESSED SWD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER TO SE                  
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD AID IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS ALREADY             
MENTIONED IN GRIDS/ZONES. WED LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID DAY BY NOV            
STANDARDS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP JUST SHY OF THE RECORDS            
(SEE BELOW). WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN OUR ZONES. HAVE                  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE NOW TO REMOVE ISOLATED POPS FOR THU AS THE TIMING             
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO BE WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.             
ALSO, THERE IS STILL NO APPRECIABLE LIFT INDICATED WITH THE SYSTEM              
BY ANY MODEL. PLAN TO INCLUDE BREEZY WORDING FOR THU AFTERNOON                  
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EWD TO OUR N ON THU                  
NIGHT. MAV TEMPS FRI MORNING LOOK TOO COLD FOR AN AIRMASS OF PACIFIC            
ORIGIN. PLAN TO GO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE MOS.                                  
SOME RECORDS MAX TEMPS FOR NOV 12 ARE INCLUDED BELOW.                           
TLH  85 IN 1927                                                                 
AAF  82 IN 1986                                                                 
PFN  85 IN 1985                                                                 
CTY  85 IN 1961                                                                 
MOULTRIE     85 IN 1986                                                         
TIFTON       85 IN 1946                                                         
DOTHAN AREA  82 IN 1986                                                         
GENEVA       82 IN 1986                                                         
ENTERPRISE   82 IN 1966                                                         
OZARK        85 IN 1938                                                         
.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS ARE BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS AND             
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH WED NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER             
WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAUTION WINDS THU AFTERNOON               
AND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.                             
.FIRE WX...NO PROBLEMS THROUGH WED NIGHT. ON THU, BOTH MAV AND FWC              
GUIDANCE BRING US CLOSE TO LOW RH DURATIONS ON THU AFTERNOON. THIS,             
COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR EITHER 20 FT WINDS NEAR 15 KT OR HIGH               
DISPERSION, WILL JUSTIFY POSTING A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THU.                       
.EXTENDED...SAT THROUGH TUE. ONCE AGAIN, SAW NO GOOD REASON TO                  
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE 00Z GFS, AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 6. IT IS IN             
GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ECMWF FROM MON, WHICH WAS                 
AVAILABLE THROUGH 96 HOURS OR 12Z FRI. BEYOND THAT TIME, WE SEE THAT            
TODAY'S GFS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR TO BRING THE                   
FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS BECAUSE IT             
DEVELOPS MORE OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS               
VALLEY ON MON. HPC PROGS ARE EVEN SLOWER TO BRING THE FRONT EWD.                
POPS WERE PULLED FROM SAT-SAT NIGHT FORECASTS WITH SUN POPS TONED               
DOWN TO ISOLATED. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY               
12Z MON, RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF THE GULF ON MON. TRENDED POPS            
FROM 30 NW TO 10 SE, THEN CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES MON NIGHT AND TUE.              
HELD OFF ON SHOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE IN DEFERENCE TO THE                
MODEL'S TRENDS AND THE HPC SOLUTION. THIS IMPACTED PRIMARILY TUE                
AFTERNOON'S WIND, POP, AND SKY GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS, THE GFS MOS HAS             
BEEN TOO COLD WITH TEMPS BEHIND THE LAST SEVERAL FRONTS. TEMPERED               
MOS BY BLENDING IT WITH INHERITED FORECAST. THIS MEANT TEMPS IN THE             
LOWER 40S MOST AREAS SAT MORNING, RATHER THAN THE 30S.                          
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 55 84 57 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
PFN 62 81 62 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
DHN 59 82 59 69 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
ABY 55 82 58 70 / 00 00 05 05                                                   
VLD 55 84 59 74 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
CTY 56 83 57 78 / 00 00 00 05                                                   
.TLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THU AFTERNOON ALLL BUT 4 ERN BIG BEND ZONES.            
$$                                                                              
18-WOOL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
745 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED WINDS PER LATEST RUC THROUGH THE FIRST 12                
HOURS AS ITS BEEN DOING A BIT BETTER JOB WITH TROUGH POSITION OVER              
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS A TAD IN 2ND PERIOD AND            
3RD TO TAKE OUT THE GUSTINESS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LOWER SPEEDS AND            
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN. THESE ADJUSTMENTS ALSO BLEND BETTER WITH                 
SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                            
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND WINDS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH              
LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE STRONGER PRESSURE RISES REMAIN EAST OF THE               
AREA IN THE MORNING MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP THE                   
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR SO LOOK LIKELY            
WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE              
AREA. HOWEVER...AS OUR ELEVATION DECREASES NOT SURE HOW MUCH MORE               
WILL GET MIXED DOWN. 850-700 LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY GOOD AND FOR NOW            
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGHLITES BUT GO WINDY IN THE ZONES.                         
OTHERWISE...HAVE BEEN TWEAKING THE TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON                 
HOURLY READINGS. AGAIN...RUC HAS BEEN DOING A BIT BETTER WITH THE               
DEWPOINTS SO HAVE BEEN TWEAKING GRIDS IN ITS DIRECTION.                         
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
850 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FOG FORMATION FOR TONIGHT AND HOW            
DENSE AND WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE.                                                
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM KLCH AT 12/00Z SHOWS GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
IN PLACE TO 9H (3K FT) WITH DRY AIR AND "CAPPED" ATMOSPHERE ABOVE               
THIS LAYER. DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL TRAP LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LESSENING OF SURFACE WINDS SHOULD              
ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO COOL BELOW CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES. THESE TWO                
FACTORS WILL HELP AID IN FOG FORMATION.                                         
WITH EXPECTED LOW TEMPS SOME 3F DEGREES OR MORE BELOW CROSS-OVER                
TEMPS FOG SHOULD BECOME DENSE. LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC GUIDANCE                 
INDICATE NVA BELOW 92H WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE             
OVERNIGHT. THIS USUALLY INDICATES THAT THE DENSE FOG THAT FORMS WILL            
BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PATCHY.                                                 
ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST DENSE FOG ARE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE                   
SURFACE. KLCH 88D VWP SHOWING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. GUIDANCE               
MAINTAIN THESE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LAST NIGHT WITH WINDS              
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THESE LEVELS DENSE FOG WAS STILL REPORTED             
AT MOST OBSERVING SITES.                                                        
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE NPW FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR            
THE ENTIRE FORECAST THROUGH 9AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ENOUGH                
COOLING AT THE SURFACE TO TAKE PLACE THAT FOG WILL START TO BECOME              
DENSE AROUND MIDNIGHT BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 4AM.                                 
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH 66 84 55 67 / 00 00 20 00                                                  
KBPT 69 84 54 67 / 00 00 20 00                                                  
KAEX 61 83 50 63 / 00 10 20 00                                                  
KLFT 66 84 57 66 / 00 00 20 00                                                  
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NPW DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES UNTIL 9AM WED.                            
TX...NPW DENSE FOG ADVISORY ALL ZONES UNTIL 9AM WED.                            
07-RUA                                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
CURRENTLY...BKN LOWER CLOUDS COVER MOST OF TX AND LA. COLD FRONT                
CURRENTLY SITTING IN NERN OK THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF TX. UPR LVL               
WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THEREFORE IT HAS                
NOT MADE A LOT OF PROGRESS SO FAR TODAY. UPR LVL RIDGE OVER LA AND              
S'ERLY FLOW AT THE SFC CAUSING TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S                 
TODAY...ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.                                        
SHORT TERM...TOMORROW SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...SOME            
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. HIGHS TOMORROW           
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY WITH CONTINUING WARMING                 
TREND. FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW           
IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY           
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FROPA IN CENTRAL LA LATE EVENING TO JUST BEFORE             
MIDNIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN LA JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. NONETHELESS...EARLY            
ENOUGH THAT TEMPS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY BY DAYBREAK THURS MORNING.             
MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR LOWS THURS MORNING ALTHOUGH            
EACH RUN HAS LOWER TEMPS THAN THE ONE BEFORE. WILL GO CLOSE TO MAV              
NUMBERS FOR NOW. LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AM...             
HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS ON THURS DOWN IN THE MID 60S.                             
SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURS NIGHT...                
WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE                 
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. STRONG JET OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF               
THE CONUS WILL MOVE THE HIGH THROUGH QUICKLY AND ANOTHER SYSTEM                 
WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. MRF SHOWING DECENT               
POPS IN THE FCST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND WILL GO              
WITH CHANCE WORDING FOR BOTH OF THOSE DAYS.                                     
AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER THIS FIRST FRONT WE WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY                 
COOLER TEMPS THURS INTO FRI...THEN SLIGHT WARMING UP TO NEAR CLIMO              
NUMBERS BY MONDAY JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT FRONT TO KNOCK THEM                 
BACK DOWN AGAIN.                                                                
$$                                                                              
MCNATT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
855 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
EVENING UPDATE...REGIONAL RADARS AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A WIDE OF RAIN             
...SOME OF IT CONVECTIVE PER ENHANCEMENT/COOLING CLOUD TOPS COVERING            
MUCH OF WV ATTM HEADING THIS WAY. FEEL THE NEED TO RAISE POPS TO                
CATEGORICAL FOR TONIGHT MOST AREAS EXCEPT FAR SRN ZONES. LATEST 00Z             
RUC SHOWS GOOD THERMAL FORCING OVER NRN HALF OF CWA WITH STG 700-500            
MB LIFT AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE DURING THE MORNING. WILL RAISE POPS              
TO CATEGORICAL DURING THE MORNING THEN TAPER IT OFF TO A CHANCE OF              
SHRAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TONIGHT MAINLY STEADY IN THE 50S.             
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT BY 10PM.                                                   
ROSA                                                                            
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW):                                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN ELONGATED 165KT 300MB JET FROM THE CENTRAL            
ROCKIES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A 165KT JET                   
(WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM) DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN                  
ROCKIES FROM WESTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION                 
REFLECTS AS COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE IR SATELLITE PUSHING THROUGH NEW             
ENGLAND. THE 12Z UPPER LEVEL CHARTS SHOW A COLD POOL OVER WESTERN               
CANADA...WHILE EAST NORTHEAST WARM ADVECTION IS NOTED FROM THE GULF             
OF MEXICO THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE                  
SURFACE WARM FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL                    
VIRGINIA (925MB WARM FRONT SURFACE REFLECTION EXTENDS FROM THE                  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES EAST THROUGH NEW ENGLAND). THE NEXT COLD FRONT              
IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE UPPER              
MIDWEST AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.                                           
GFS/ETA/SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW GREAT CONTINUITY WITH FORMING AN             
AREA OF FRONTOGENETIC RAIN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY..INTO THE NORTHERN              
MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. WITH THE NATIONAL RADAR LOOP BEGINNING TO               
SHOW THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH MOS NUMBERS...AND INGREDIENTS IN PLACE              
SYNOPTICALLY...FOLLOWED GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...DID GO BELOW GUIDANCE               
POPS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AS THERE            
SHOULD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN THIS SITUATION...AND CERTAINTY BEYOND             
WHAT THE MODELS HAVE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH PLACING FRONTOGENTIC RAIN             
BANDS.                                                                          
GFS/ETA SHOW PHASING WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE TWO                 
SYSTEMS...WITH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. STRANGE THAT              
THESE TWO MODELS ARE IN SUCH AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELDS AND QPF                 
GIVEN THE PHASING SITUATION. SECONDARY WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH             
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW...AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDING COLD                 
FRONT. AT THIS POINT...FEEL ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE                 
METRO AREAS TO YIELD UPPER 60S...BUT THIS IS A VERY TOUGH                       
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GIVEN THE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AND OCCLUSION.                
FRONTOGENETIC PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE BY MORNING...YIELDING A                 
BREAK WITH UPSLOPE KEEPING PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING              
THE MORNING. THEN...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS...AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF            
STRENGTHENING 300MB JET WILL ALLOW FOR A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS               
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.                                                     
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY                
THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.              
MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH FROPA THAN PROJECTIONS FROM            
24 HOURS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDED TO               
LOWER POPS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER AHEAD            
OF FROPA.                                                                       
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE ETA              
BEING THE FASTEST TO USHER THE COLD AIR IN. H8 TEMPS AT 12Z THURSDAY            
WILL RANGE FROM 0 TO -4. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP              
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW WEST AND A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW               
MIX EAST. HPC PROGS AND SREF ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTS KEEPING THE SNOW            
OVER THE WEST RIDGES...BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE FAST ENDING                
PRECIP WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LIGHT               
CHANCE ACROSS ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY AM.                                   
EXPECT STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. H8 WINDS 45 TO 50                   
KT...TIGHT GRADIENT AS LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH              
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED.              
WILL ISSUE SPS TO COVER FOR NOW.                                                
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO            
APPROACH LATE MONDAY. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY.              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SNOW/WIND ASSOCIATED WITH WED/THU DYNAMIC                 
SYSTEM.                                                                         
CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE U P OVER THE PAST FEW                  
HOURS...AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S                    
SHORTWAVE. AS DEWPTS ARE STILL MOSTLY IN MID 30S...AND W/ DECREASED             
CLD COVER AND WIND...SHOULD SEE SOME FOG FORM TONIGHT. OTHERWISE IT             
WILL BE A TRANQUIL NIGHT. UPSTREAM...WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGH DIGGING            
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND A WEAK 1002MB SFC LOW HAS FORMED IN             
SE MT. H3 JET (130KT) ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY LATE             
TNGT/EARLY WED AS THIS TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS                
WILL BRING AN INTERESTING PERIOD OF WX BEGINNING TOMORROW MORNING.              
ETA/NGM/CANADIAN NOW SEEM TO HAVE LOCKED INTO TRACKING THE SFC LOW              
FROM WEST CENTRAL WI AT 12Z TO NEAR NRN LAKE HURON BY 00Z...ACROSS              
THE EXTREME SRN U P. GIVEN THIS CONSISTENCY...AND THE FACT THAT THE             
LATEST GFS HAS BEGUN TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE GONE W/ THE ETA.             
LATEST RUC THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT ALSO CONCURS W/ ETA SFC LOW AND PRES             
FALLS. BEYOND 00Z THU...BELIEVE THE ETA IS TOO FAST IN EXITING THE              
LOW TO THE EAST...AND THUS TOO FAST IN DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW             
AND DROPPING INVERSIONS WED NIGHT AND THU. SO...HAVE LEANED TOWARD              
THE AVN WHICH KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE (SEE H8-H7 RH) AND CYCLONIC FLOW            
THROUGH THU...W/ THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WELL TO OUR WEST.                           
UPR DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING JET TO OUR                  
SOUTH...STRONG H8-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND H8-H7 FRONTOGENESIS/            
OMEGA ADVERTISED BY THE ETA...ALL POINT TOWARD A GOOD SNOW EVENT AS             
SFC LOW DEEPENS WED AFTN/EVNG. BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE ALONG A LINE            
FROM IWD TO MQT...AND WITHIN THIS AREA THE ETA CRANKS OUT UP TO AN              
INCH OF QPF. THOUGH PCPN MAY BEGIN AS A MIX W/ RAIN...AS THICKNESSES            
IMPLY...BRUNT WILL BE SNOW ONCE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS COMMENCE. SO             
UP TO 7 OR 8 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY TOMORROW EVENING.             
BY LATE IN THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME NLY AND COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO            
THE AREA...THE LAKE WILL ADD ENHANCEMENT. HAVE THUS GONE WITH A                 
WATCH FOR THIS AREA...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT SNOW AND BLSN AS WINDS                 
REALLY PICK UP LATE IN THE DAY (MORE ON THIS BELOW). AM EXPECTING               
FURTHER ACCUMS WED NIGHT AS LES PICKS UP (W/ DELTA-TS FALLING TO THE            
UPR TEENS). HAVE EXCLUDED THE KEWEENAW AS THEY WILL BE AWAY FROM                
BEST DYNAMICS...AND WIND DIRECTION/HIGH SPEEDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE             
ONCE LES BEGINS...THOUGH THEY MAY NEED A LES/BLSN ADVY. FURTHER E...            
BELIEVE ALGER/LUCE WILL SEE SNOW PICK UP SOMETIME WED EVENING...W/              
UP TO 6 INCHES SYNOPTIC SNOW POSSIBLE (PER ETA QPF). INTO THU...WILL            
TRANSITION TO LES REGIME...AND NWLY FLOW AND LONG FETCH WILL BE                 
IDEAL FOR ALGER/LUCE/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT. CONSIDERING WINDS....THOSE                
WELL INLAND WILL SEE ACCUMS AS WELL (AS WILL ALSO BE THE CASE IN THE            
WEST). HAVE ISSUED A WATCH FOR THE EAST AS WELL...FOCUSING ON SNOW/             
BLSN COMBINATION.                                                               
CONCERNING WIND...THOUGH THE MORE NLY GFS SOLUTION OFFERS BETTER                
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...THE ETA IS SHOWING 45-60KT WINDS JUST OFF               
THE SFC AND EASILY WITHIN INCRG BLYR WED NIGHT. W/ PRES GRADIENT                
INCREASING (TO 20MB DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE U P WED 00Z)...WINDS WILL             
CAUSE PLENTY OF BLSN. MAY EVEN SEE STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE LAKE...             
AND AT THIS POINT GALES ARE A CERTAINTY.                                        
SYSTEM WINDS DOWN THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. FRI               
WILL ALSO SEE GOOD MODERATION OF TEMPS (AFTER WINTERY THU). H8 TEMPS            
RISE TO NEAR ZERO W/ WLY WIND...SO HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REBOUND                
INTO UPR 30S/LOW 40S.                                                           
IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK CENTRAL PLAINS LOW IS NOW TRACKING FURTHER               
NORTH PER LATEST GFS RUNS...AND UKMET/ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...ENSEMBLE            
MEAN SHOWS THIS FEATURE STAYING TO OUR SOUTH W/ ANTICYCLONIC SFC-H8             
FLOW OVER US. TO COMPROMISE...HAVE BROUGHT IN LOW CHANCE -RASN FOR              
THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT...BUT FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO SHED MORE             
LIGHT. BY MON/TUE...STRONGER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE HIGH                   
PLAINS...AND BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN...THOUGH AT THIS                
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATER TUE            
INTO WED.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WINTER STORM WATCH WED AFTN THRU WED NITE MIZ002-004-005-009-010-084.           
WINTER STORM WATCH WED NITE AND THU MIZ006-007-085.                             
GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1022 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN IS NOW WELL EAST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON SATELLITE AND             
SURFACE OBS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN EXTEND ALL THE WAY UPSTREAM TO                
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE CURRENT RUC AND MESO ETA KEEP PLENTY OF                  
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN 850MB INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                
THUS CURRENT MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.              
ONLY UPDATE TO CURRENT AFTERNOON FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER HIGH                 
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB AS                
READINGS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS                
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK GOOD BASED ON CURRENT                 
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
CONSIDINE                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION....ISSUED AT 200 AM EST.                                       
LOTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THE             
PRESENT TIME...AS A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE AREA.                  
850/700 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SHOW THE SOURCE REGION COMING             
UP FROM ILLINOIS...WHERE PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE GREATER THAN 1                
INCH. THE DRY AIR BELOW 12000 FEET NOTED ON THE 00Z DTX                         
SOUNDING...HAS QUICKLY MOISTENED UP...WITH RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE              
ENTIRE CWA. THE GOOD 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF                
AFTER 12Z. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE                
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL BE                   
CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE THIS MORNING.                  
THE MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF              
DAYS IS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BRITISH               
COLUMBIA COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY PHASING WITH THE                       
SUBTROPICAL JET. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON FAST              
THE AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE. NO BIG COMPLAINTS WITH THE HPC MODEL             
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION. WILL FAVOR ETA SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND               
THE CANADIAN/UKMET MODEL AT 500 MB.                                             
MESOETA SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIENTS ARGUE FOR ADDING               
FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING INTO LOWER                 
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...FOG FORMATION APPEARS FAVORABLE. ANOTHER                   
CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. GFS/NGM/ETA ALL             
SHOWING NEGATIVE LI'S WITH TT'S IN THE LOWER 50S THIS EVENING.                  
WITH MOST OF THE CWA BEING IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A                     
DEPARTING JET MAX...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST...EXCEPT NEAR THE            
OHIO BORDER. BETTER MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 94...ALONG WITH                 
BEING IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE JET MAX. THIS IS ALSO IN              
AGREEMENT WITH THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK GRAPHICS. NGM/GFS               
GUIDANCE INDICATING 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS DETROIT SOUTH DURING THE              
EVENING HOURS...WILL CARRY A 30 POP.                                            
IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF LOWER             
MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE FLOW IS SLOW BACKING              
TO THE SOUTHWEST...OUT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW. IT             
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON                      
WEDNESDAY...PER ETA/CANADIAN. HOWEVER...IF THE FLOW IS MORE                     
AMPLIFIED BY WEDNESDAY...LIKE THE UKMET IS SHOWING...ENOUGH MOISTURE            
WILL LIKELY GET TAPPED TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. WILL LOWER POPS ON             
WEDNESDAY FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST HOWEVER.                                    
ALL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR WORKING INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY              
THURSDAY MORNING TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 850 MB               
TEMPS OF -16 C WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT. MUCH BETTER                          
MOISTURE/HIGHER INVERSIONS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEKEND'S COLD                 
SHOT. WILL BE CONTINUING WITH THE SCATTERED WORDING...AS A DIURNAL              
COMPONENT KICKS IN ON THURSDAY AS WELL.                                         
RIDING AT ALL LEVELS WORKS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...LINGERING            
INTO SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOW PRESSURE (997 MB) MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES                   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN (987 MB) AS IT TRACKS EAST              
INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...COUPLED WITH             
GOOD COLD ADVECTION/DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO GALES FORCE WINDS (AT              
LEAST 40 KNOTS OVER LAKE HURON) WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
205 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND WIND.                 
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PCPN CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.                   
ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA               
WHILE STRONG SFC HI PRES SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BUILDS INTO               
THE WRN US. TEMPS QUITE TRICKY FOR WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS STRONG COLD              
FRONT MOVES THRU DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. WL GO WITH HIGHS             
OCCURRING NEAR 18Z AND FALLING THEREAFTER. WL PROBABLY ONLY MAX OUT             
IN THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NRN COUNTIES AND CLOSE TO 50 NEAR THE                 
KANSAS BORDER. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST                
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ABOVE                 
MENTIONED SYSTEMS.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GOOD MIXING             
WITH NEAR 50KTS OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOWN FROM NEAR 850MB.  MIXING              
THIS DOWN PUTS US JUST BORDERLINE ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA RIGHT               
NOW BUT DEFINITELY WARRANTS WATCHING OVER NEXT SHIFT...ESPECIALLY               
FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE STRONG WIND               
WORDING IN PUBLIC FORECAST.                                                     
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW              
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA WHICH IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND               
MOVE THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE                 
WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES CLOSER SO HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT            
ON THE PCPN CHANCES AND MOVED THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE FURTHER NORTH.             
BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER NERN NEB WHERE ETA/GFS SHOWS THE BEST                 
FORCING...ALBEIT WEAK.                                                          
THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS                
SYSTEM.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU SOME PART               
THE CENTRAL US ON SUNDAY. DUE TO THE LOW MEASURE OF PREDICTABILITY              
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...FEEL IT'S BEST TO JUST GO WITH                   
CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL MODELS ARE IN BETTER                   
AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WRN US EARLY NEXT               
WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND ON THE HORIZON THEREAFTER.                            
&&                                                                              
.OAX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IA...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRIFFIS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
240 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
COORD WITH DLH/ABR/MPX/BIS.  12Z RUNS AND 18Z ETA ALL SHOW GOOD                 
CONSENSUS IN HAVING HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY TWO.  FOR THAT                  
REASON WILL GO AHEAD AND GO WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 3 COUNTY AREA              
BORDERING HIGHWAY TWO (DVL-GFK-TVF-BJI-PKD).  ADVISORIES WILL BE                
POSTED FOR AREAS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA.  WILL GO FOR TONIGHT             
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                                      
SFC LOW AT 20Z ALONG MT/SASK BORDER NORTHWEST OF GLASGOW.  BAND OF              
PCPN WITH MODERATE TO HVY SNOW FROM NW ND INTO SRN SASK...AND                   
UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA INDICATED UPWARDS TO 15-20CM (6-8 INCHES) IN             
NARROW BAND.  ALL MODELS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TAKING SFC             
LOW SOUTHEAST THRU SE ND INTO CNTRL MN WITH 850 MB CIRCULATION THRU             
CNTRL ND JUST SOUTH OF GFK EAST TOWARD DLH.  IF THIS TRACK PANS OUT             
THIS WILL PUT MAX SNOWFALL RIGHT ALONG HIGHWAY TWO CORRIDOR.  MODEL             
QPF SIMILAR WITH 0.25 TO 0.35 TENTHS IN ND AND UP TO .50 IN NRN MN.             
THIS WOULD COORELATE TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN DVL-GFK AREA TO 4-6 IN BAND            
TOWARD BEMIDJI.  AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH                     
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND ENOUGH MIXING TO               
BRING DOWN 45KTS AT 850 MB TO THE SFC.  THUS LOOK FOR BRIEF WINDY PD            
WITH BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WITH LOCAL CRITERIA FOR                   
WARNINGS OF 4 IN/12 HRS IF 25 MPH SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS...THIS            
PUSHES EVENT JUST OVER INTO THE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SMALL AREA OF              
THE FCST AREA.                                                                  
PCPN TYPE AND TIMING IS MORE QUESTIONABLE.  18Z ETA AND RUC HOLD OFF            
PCPN TIL 06Z FOR THE RED RIVER AREA...WITH GFK BEST BET FOR SNOW                
06-09Z AND 10-13Z FOR BJI.  SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIQUID THEN MIX AND               
THEN SNOW IN THE SOUTH...WITH SOME -FZRA PSBL EVEN NORTH INTO                   
WARNING AREA INTIALLY.  SOUNDINGS THEN SATURATE QUICKLY TO AN ALL               
SNOW SOUNDING AFTER 06Z.  18Z RUC IS A BIT WARMER AND WOULD SUGGEST             
MORE MIX THAN ETA WOULD.                                                        
.LONGER TERM...                                                                 
BRIEF COOLING BEHIND SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN WARM ADVECTION             
SETS IN FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ETA SHOWING +6 TO +8 850 MB               
AIR INTO ERN ND FRIDAY.  SO EVEN WITH FRESH COVER EXPECT HIGHS TO               
REACH AOA 32F IN THE NORTH WITH 40S LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH WHERE               
NOT MUCH SNOW MAY EXIST.                                                        
.EXTENDED (SAT-TUE)...                                                          
PER PMDEPD THE GENERAL UPPER PATTERN SHIFTS FROM SPLIT FLOW BACK TO             
MORE OF A NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/CANADIAN DO            
SHOW A LEAD 500 MB WAVE KICKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE                 
MON/TUE TIME FRAME WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SFC LOW. 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS               
THE SFC LOW QUITE A BIT FURTHER NORTH. EVEN SO WILL CARRY A PCPN                
MENTION FROM LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE. BIG RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN             
850 MB TEMPS SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO INHERITED TEMPS/CONSISTENCY                 
THROUGHOUT. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY BIG BLASTS OF COLDER AIR.                 
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA                   
(DEVILS LAKE TO GRAND FORKS) TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW               
ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG MANITOBA            
BORDER.  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                   
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING FARGO.                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                      
(CROOKSTON AND THIEF RIVER FALLS TO BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS)                    
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  SNOW ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG             
CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WINTER WEATHER               
ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING            
INCLUDING FERGUS FALLS AND DETROIT LAKES.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/GODON                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
852 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER OFFSHORE FROM SE USA. SURFACE GRADIENT                     
TIGHTENING OVER TN AND S MS RIVER VALLEYS. EXCEPT FOR A PATCH OF                
TRANSIENT MID CLOUD OVER HKY AREA...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS                    
CONFINED TO NE TN...WHILE UPSTATE SC AND NE GA CLR. HAVE INCREASED              
SKY COVER GRADIENT IN GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.           
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A BIT ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO RAISED                  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST A DEGREE OR SO. LATEST RUC WINDS NOT              
MUCH CHANGE FORM GOING FORECAST. ALL IN ALL...CHANGES IN GRIDS NOT              
ENOUGH TO AFFECT ZONE FORECAST WORDING...AND PLAN NO UPDATE AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GSP 52 76 51 62 / 10 20 30 10                                                   
AND 52 76 52 62 / 10 10 20 10                                                   
CLT 51 76 52 62 / 00 10 20 10                                                   
HKY 51 74 49 58 / 10 20 40 10                                                   
AVL 48 73 45 53 / 10 30 50 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR ZONES                 
NCZ033...NCZ048>050...NCZ053...NCZ065.                                          
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
205 AM MST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL IN THE EAST BEHIND              
COLD FRONT TODAY AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND              
EVENING.                                                                        
A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS              
AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WINDS NEAR         
ADVISORY LEVEL WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE EAST WHERE ETA 6 HOUR                 
PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB WILL EXIST. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT              
850 MB WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE LATEST FSL RUC INDICATING               
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME             
AT OR AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL                      
CONSIDERABLY WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING TO AROUND 50. SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING EXPECTED IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM               
THE SOUTHWEST MAY LIMIT AMOUNT OF COOLING IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND            
WILL KEEP LOWS AT/NEAR MAV. MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH TRACK             
OF SOUTHWEST SYSTEM...KEEPING IT NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW             
A GREAT DEAL OF DRY AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA KEEPING ANY                       
PRECIPITATION ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE PRESENT                 
AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE WEST...ALL RAIN            
IN THE EAST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON THURSDAY NIGHT                
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING WITH DRY SOUTHWEST                
FLOW/DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TRACKS                 
NORTH OF THE AREA.                                                              
ETA/GFS WARM TEMPERATURES UP QUICKLY ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS TO QUICK               
AND HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NO                
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND DAY 3.                                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MCGUIRE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
330 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF ACRS CNTRL              
NAMERICA BTWN UPR RDG OFF SW CAN AND OVER SE CAN. WEAK SHRTWV RDG               
OVR THE UPR GRT LKS BRINGING A PD OF TRANQUIL WX TO CWA EARLY THIS              
MRNG...AND 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS SHOW A DRY PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS            
RDG AXIS. SHRTWV NOTED OVER SW CAN HEADING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.                
IMPRESSIVE H3 HGT/RISE FALL COUPLET (12HR HGT RISES UP TO 170M WITH             
FALLS ARND 100M) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRTWV AND DIGGING 125+ KT H3             
JET MAX IN THE CNDN/NRN ROCKIES. THESE DYNAMICS PLUS OBSVD MSLP RISE            
MAX OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH PRES FALLS DISPLACED SE OF THE LO                  
CENTER SUG SYS WL BE DIGGING SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH PWAT LESS THAN 0.5               
INCH UPSTREAM IN THE NRN PLAINS...88D COMPOSITE SHOWS FAIRLY HI                 
REFLECTIVITIES ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF SN IN ND JUST N OF SFC LO                
PRES ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRG NLY FLOW/CAD            
TO N OF LO CENTER ENHANCING PRES RISE MAX IN EXCESS OF 6MB/ 3HRS.               
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE IN THE TDAY-THU TIME AND INCLUDE            
PCPN TYPE...POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC SN AND LES/WND AS WELL AS GOING                  
HEADLINES ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHRTWV/SFC LO PASSAGE. MODELS                
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO TRACK JUST S OF CWA              
ACRS NRN WI AND ACRS NRN LK MI AS ADVERTISED BY PREVIOUS FCSTS. GFS             
STILL FARTHEST N OF THE U.S. MODELS...BUT HAS TRENDED SHARPLY S AND             
TOWARD THE CONSISTENT ETA/CNDN/UKMET/ECMWF FCSTS. THIS SRN TRACK IS             
CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSVD PATTERN OF HGT/MSLP CHG UPSTREAM AND SHARP            
LLVL CAD IN ND TO N OF SFC LO POSITION. SINCE ETA MODEL HAS BEEN                
MOST CONSISTENT WITH TRACK AND DETAILS OF STORM SYS IN THE SHORTER              
TERM...HAVE FOLLOWED ITS HIER RESOLUTION OUTPUT FOR EARLIER PDS OF              
FCST. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON FCST DEPARTURE             
TIMING OF SYS LATER TNGT/THU...BUT WL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER                   
DEPARTURE GIVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SYS AND EXPECTATION THAT               
THE INCRSG AMPLITUDE WL RESULT IN A SLOWER ZONAL PROGRESSION.                   
TDAY WL START OUT ON A RELATIVE QUIET NOTE WITH SHRTWV RDGING                   
ALF/DRY AIRMASS AHD OF SHRTWV TO THE W STILL IN CONTROL OF WX HERE.             
HOWEVER...STRG CAD IN THE NRN PLAINS THAT WL SPRD INTO MN FCST TO               
SHARPLY INTENSIFY BAROCLINIC ZN IN THE UPR MS VALLEY AND H3 WIND MAX            
OVER IA THIS AFTN...WHERE ETA SHOWS H3 WIND SPEED INCRSG TO OVER                
160KT. ENHANCED UPR DVGC AND FRONTOGENESIS MAINLY IN THE H85-7 LYR              
IN LEFT EXIT OF UPR JET WL WORK TO GENERATE PCPN DESPITE RATHER DRY             
NATURE OF AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCRSG BTWN               
285K AND 290K SFCS DURG THE DAY AS THE SFC LO PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN             
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCRSG UPR DVGC...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY              
FOR LIFT IS RATHER BRIEF AS SFC LO PROGGED TO REACH THE ERN ZNS LATE            
IN THE DAY. SO UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS WL BE THE MAIN FORCG                      
MECHANISMS INITIALLY. THE MAX FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/STRG UVV NOT FAR            
FM THE -10C AND -12C ISOTHERMS WOULD ALSO TEND TO ENHANCE SN GROWTH             
MICROPHYSICS. ONCE THE SFC LO PUSHES TO THE E...A STRG CYC NLY FLOW             
AND FALLING H85 TEMPS (COMBINATION OF CAD/FROTOGENESIS) TO AS LO AS             
-8C OVER THE WRN LK LATE IN THE AFTN WL INCRS LK ENHANCEMENT W OF               
MQT DURG THE AFTN. GFS/ETA/NGM ALL REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH                   
PLACEMENT OF HIER QPF N OF IWD/MQT DURG DAY AND EVEN ON AMTS...                 
PROGGING BTWN 0.50-0.75 INCH IN THIS BULLSEYE THRU 00Z. PCPN TYPE A             
CONCERN INITIALLY. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW DEPTH OF ABV FRZG TEMP/WBZ               
LAYER BTWN 1K AND 3K FT AT TIME OF ONSET OF PCPN...WITH H100-85                 
THKNS 1310M OR BETTER EVERYWHERE AT 18Z. THESE THKNS VALUES                     
CORRESPONDED TO TMAX YDAY UPSTREAM IN THE 35 TO 45 RANGE. SO THINK              
PCPN WL START AS RA TDAY BEFORE CHGING TO SN W TO E DURG THE AFTN W             
OF MUNISING AND EARLY THIS EVNG AT ERY PER FCST 1300M H100-85 THKNS             
LINE. LK ENHANCEMENT WL BE MAXIMIZED OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY AND THE              
HURON MTNS OF BARAGA/MQT ZNS...WHERE H7 UVV FCST TO BE STRONGEST AND            
DELTA T REACHES 15C TO 17C BY LATER IN THE DAY. LES CHART SUGS                  
ENHANCEMENT MIGHT ADD UP TO 6-8 INCHES OF SN/6 HRS IN THESE AREAS...            
SO WL ADJUST FCST QPF UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DESTABILIZATION              
WITH AN EXTRA 4 INCHES OF SN DURG THE AFTN (19Z-23Z) IN ONTONAGON               
COUNTY. THE STRG WNDS WL CAUSE ANY SN BANDS TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND              
THAN MIGHT OTRW BE THE CASE. BLSN ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS WL ADD TO              
MISERY OF THIS EVENT.                                                           
LK ENHANCED REGIME WL GRDLY GIVE WAY TO A PURE LES REGIME TNGT W-E              
AS UPR DVGC/FRONTOGENESIS/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC/DEEPER MSTR               
GRDLY EDGE EWD WITH SFC LO. LK ENHANCED SN WL LIKELY CONT ALL NGT AT            
ERY WITH DYNAMICS NOT EXPECTED TO DEPART UNTIL 12Z. MODEL QPF                   
00Z-12Z TNGT IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN IN 0.50-0.75 RANGE              
ACRS THE LK SUP BORDER COUNTIES OF THE ERN CWA. STRG NNW WNDS WL                
CONT TO PUSH LES BANDS FURTHER INLAND THAN NORMAL AND CAUSE NR                  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLSN/FALLING SN. ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW                 
INVRN SINKING TO 5K-7K FT OVERNGT THU W-E...WITH DELTA T APRCHG 17C             
AS H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TOWARD -12C. LES CHART SHOWS UP TO 3               
INCHES OF SN/6 HRS FOR XPCTD CONDITIONS. HOW QUICKLY THE LES ENDS               
LATE AT NGT INTO THU WL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE LLVL FLOW BCMS                
ACYC IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LO. HAVE TENDED TOWARD SLOWER GFS SOLN            
PER DISCUSSION ABV...WITH SGNFT LES CONTG OVER THE ERN ZNS INTO MID             
DAY ON THU.                                                                     
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AT LEAST WINTER STORM WRNGS FOR ALL LK SUP                
BORDER COUNTIES AND SRN CMX/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT...WHERE COMBINATION OF              
HIER SYNOPTIC QPF...LK ENHANCEMENT AND HIER WNDS IN MORE EXPOSED                
LOCATION TO NNW WND WL CAUSE THE MOST SEVERE CONDITIONS. GIVEN FCST             
MODEL QPF ARND 0.60 INCH WHEN PCPN WL BE FALLING AS SN (6 INCHES)...            
AND POTENTIAL 6-9 HRS OF LK ENHANCEMENT WITH AN INCH AN HOUR SN                 
RATES IN PREFERRED HIER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER MQT/ALGER ZNS IN NNW             
FLOW REGIME WL FCST TOTAL ACCUMS UP TO 15 INCHES THRU TNGT IN THOSE             
PREFERRED LOCATIONS THRU TNGT. UP TO 12 INCHES IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/            
BARAGA/CMX/KEWEENAW COUNTIES WITH SOMEWHAT LESS FVRBL NNW WND AND               
QUICKER TRANSITION TO ACYC FLOW TNGT. EXTENDED WRNG INTO THU OVER               
THE ERN ZNS...WHERE WND SPEEDS WL BE THE LAST TO DIMINISH AND LONGER            
FETCH IN MORE CYC NNW FLOW WL CONT SGNFT PURE LES FOR A LONGER PD OF            
TIME. AFT COORDINATION WITH APX AND ETA FCST OF 60KT WNDS WITHIN 1K             
FT OF SFC AT ERY THIS EVNG...DECIDED ON BLIZZARD WRNG FOR ALGER/NRN             
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE ZNS AS SHARPEST GRADIENT/CYC FLOW LINGERS THERE FOR            
A GOOD PORTION OF NGT. ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW 50KT WNDS WITHIN 5                   
HUNDRED FT OF SFC AT STDM4...SO GOING WITH STORM WRNG OVER ERN LK               
WITH MORE MODEST GRADIENT FARTHER W OF RPDLY DEEPENING STORM SYS                
HOLDING HEADLINE TO GALE WRNG OVER WRN HALF OF LK AND JUST WINTER               
STORM WRNG IN THE LAND ZNS. HAVE OPTED FOR SNOW/BLSN ADVY FOR IRON              
COUNTY AND SRN SCHOOLCRAFT ZNS...WHERE STRG WNDS SHUD CAUSE SGNFT               
ACCUMULATION APRCHG 10 INCHES OVER THE RURAL NW PARTS OF THOSE ZNS.             
MOST POPULOUS PARTS OF THAT COUNTY WL SEE NO MORE THAN ADVY SN WITH             
BETTER UVV REMAINING JUST TO THE N. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH HIGH WIND             
ADVY FOR DICKINSON- MNM-DELTA COUNTIES PER EVALUATION OF HI WND                 
CHECKLIST. PASSAGE OF SHARP ISALLOBARIC MAXIMUM OVHD AND                        
CONSIDERABLE CAD APPEAR TO OFFSET PASSAGE OF SHRTWV TO THE S OF FA.             
STRG NNW FLOW MAY ALSO CAUSE LES AMTS TO APRCH ADVY CRITERIA OVER               
SRN SCHOOLCRAFT/ERN DELTA COUNTIES...BUT WL LET LATER SHIFTS                    
EVALUATE NECESSITY OF AN LES/BLSN ADVY FOR THESE ZNS FOR THE SECOND             
PD OF THIS FCST.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
BLIZZARD WRNG TNGT INTO THU MIZ006-007-085.                                     
WINTER STORM WRNG THIS AFTN-TNGT MIZ001>005-009-084.                            
SN/BLSN ADVY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT MIZ010.                                        
SN/BLSN ADVY TNGT INTO THU MIZ014.                                              
HIGH WIND ADVY TNGT MIZ011>013.                                                 
STORM WRNG E HALF LK SUP.                                                       
GALE WRNG W HALF LK SUP.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
418 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
MESSY FORECAST... AGAIN.  A SMALL SURFACE LOW IS SCOOTING EAST                  
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  IT IS MOVING ALONG AN              
APPARENT WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST AND WEST FROM THE              
LOW.  AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND              
IT... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES            
- IN MOST AREAS - WILL FOLLOW.  SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS               
MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR CUTS OFF THE UPWARD               
CLIMB.  THE REALLY COOL AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST                      
TONIGHT... AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS DISCONTINUITY TO THE                         
TEMPERATURES... JUST A STEADY COOL-DOWN.                                        
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHORT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE                
NEXT DAY OR TWO... BUT THE WIND SHIFT/FRONT TODAY MIGHT KICK UP A               
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BRING                
GENERAL LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES               
MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY MORNING IN            
THE FAR NORTHWEST... WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY                
ACCUMULATION.  A COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO              
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                               
IN GENERAL... FOLLOWED TIMING OF THE RUC IN THE IMMEDIATE                       
NEAR-TERM... MESOETA LATER ON... AND GFS FOR LATER PERIODS.                     
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS REDUCE              
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE PERIODS.                                                    
FCSTID = 23 = CMS                                                               
OKC  68 40 48 36 / 20 10 20 50                                                  
HBR  68 40 44 35 / 20 10 40 40                                                  
SPS  75 42 48 38 / 20 20 30 50                                                  
GAG  62 30 40 34 / 10 10 50 30                                                  
PNC  65 36 48 35 / 10 00 10 30                                                  
DUA  77 44 55 38 / 30 10 20 40                                                  
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
327 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT THIS MORNING.           
09Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE AREA OF 6 TO 8 MB PRESSURE RISES                
SLIDING ACROSS NW SD. WINDS HAVE REALLY PICKED UP ACROSS WESTERN SD             
WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. GETS TRICKIER            
AS FRONT ENTERS OUR CWA WITH SOME PARAMETERS HINTING AT REACHING                
WIND WARNING LEVELS THIS MORNING. IF WINDS WERE TO MIX DOWN 100                 
PERCENT FROM 850...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AT A FEW                    
LOCATIONS. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE MOMENTUM AS WINDS NOT              
TOTALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WINDS WONT QUITE BE THAT STRONG SO WILL              
CONTINUE WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THIS IN LINE WITH RUC2             
AND BUFKIT MEAN MIXED LAYER ESTIMATES. BASED ON 88D IMAGERY...A FEW             
AREAS OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF FRONT...FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE DAY AS H500 DIV Q AXIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. THIS            
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR             
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF              
THE FORECAST. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND             
BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT. AS IM NOT QUITE SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL KICK             
OUT AS FAST AS THE ETA IS ADVERTISING.                                          
.FSD...                                                                         
IA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES IAZ001>003...IAZ012>014...               
IAZ020>022...IAZ031>032.                                                        
MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MNZ071>072...MNZ080>081...               
MNZ089>090...MNZ097>098.                                                        
NE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NEZ013>014.                              
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ038...SDZ050...                       
SDZ052>053...SDZ057>059...SDZ063>064.                                           
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ039>040...SDZ054>056...                    
SDZ060>062...SDZ065>071.                                                        
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1111 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
A NUMBER OF ISSUES TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. CHRONOLOGICALLY THE               
FIRST ON THE LIST IS THE DENSE FOG. WHILE A NUMBER OF STATIONS STILL            
HAD VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS AT 9AM/14Z...MOST ARE BEGINNING TO               
LIFT TO 1-2SM BY 15Z. THIS IS WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST            
WITH ENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT 11AM EST/16Z. LOW CLOUDS/IFR               
VIS WILL STILL POSE AN ISSUE FOR AVIATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT                
COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE            
AT 11AM. NPW ALREADY ISSUED.                                                    
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW THIN SPOTS DEVELOPING OVER LOWER                      
MICHIGAN...BUT STILL WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS AROUND. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
SHOWS A WARM FRONT JUST PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TEMPS             
HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 50S AT ADG/TTF...WITH DEWPOINTS               
ALSO IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INSOLATION THIS                 
MORNING WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH JUMPING INTO THE             
60S...WHICH IS OF COURSE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUDS FILL BACK IN.             
THIS LEADS TO A BIG IMPACT ON PRECIP AND SEVERE CHANCES FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON/EVENING.                                                              
MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR A T/TD OF 63/53 YIELDS 1000J/KG CAPE.             
DEWPOINTS COULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER GIVEN UPSTREAM                       
OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z ETA FORECAST /12Z RUC IS DRIER THAN CURRENT                
OBSERVATIONS/. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WIND FIELD IS VERY IMPRESSIVE             
WITH THIS STRONG DYNAMIC SYSTEM. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...850MB                
WINDS ARE RUNNING NEAR 35KTS/500MB WINDS NEAR 100KTS. 0-3KM HELICITY            
IS NEAR 200M2/S2 AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS NEAR 70M/S PER 12Z ETA BUFKIT AT            
DTW. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT OF                  
STRENGTHENING 170KT 300MB JET. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8C/KM             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...AND STILL NEAR 7C/KM ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALL            
THIS LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER GOING. PRIMARY             
THREAT WILL BE WIND. WILL CONDUCT A SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING.                       
FOLLOWING THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SYNOPTIC HIGH WINDS            
BEHIND THE FRONT. A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS. VERY             
STRONG GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS                  
MENTIONED EARLIER...35KT WINDS AT 850MB INCREASE TO 70KTS BEHIND THE            
FRONT. SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT              
LAKES...FROM 1001MB OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z/12 TO ETA-FORECAST            
975MB OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AT 12Z/13. GFS STILL A BIT                           
WEAKER...TAKING THE LOW DOWN TO 980MB BY 12Z/13. STRONG ISALLOBARIC             
WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...MAINLY                   
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON. SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SEE            
THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE...WITH 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER              
80 AND OVER 50 KNOTS DOWNSLOPE ON 280/285K ISENTROPIC SURFACES.                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ETA BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS                
TAPPING INTO THE 65-70KT CORE NEAR 3KFT. WITH THE MORNING UPDATE                
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR                           
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. NPW OUT SHORTLY.                                      
THANKS FOR COORD GRR.                                                           
&&                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003                                   
WIND WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AS                
WELL AS THE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE SWING.                                         
IT IS A GOOD THING THE LEAVES ARE OFF THE TREES...OR ELSE WE WOULD              
HAVE SOME BIG PROBLEMS.                                                         
A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (NEAR BOMB -24 MB/24HRS)             
WILL LEAD TO STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND                
THURSDAY. NOT TO MENTION THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS                    
AFTERNOON!                                                                      
POTENT UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN               
PLAINS IS IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER               
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY               
FROM LOWER MICHIGAN...AS PW VALUES ARE WELL OVER 1 INCH ACROSS THE              
OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION            
AT THE PRESENT TIME IS TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY...WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING             
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MONROE/LENAWEE COUNTIES.                                
IN THE SHORTWAVE'S WAKE THIS MORNING...THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE               
OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL                       
MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION OVER LOWER              
MICHIGAN...WILL LINGER. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS...HOW MUCH OF THE              
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON TAP?...AS THE 850/700 MB MOISTURE             
TRANSPORT VECTORS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALSO...WHAT KIND OF             
IMPACT WILL THE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS HAVE ON THE INSTABILITY TODAY?           
MESOETA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF             
YEAR. LI'S OF -4 C ALONG WITH CAPES OF 1000 J/KG. IF THAT KIND OF               
INSTABILITY IS REACHED...WITH THE AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR (HELICITY 300            
TO 400 M2/S2)...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND DAMAGE) IS LIKELY IF A               
CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS. THE OTHER ASSUMPTION IS UPDRAFTS WILL BE              
SUSTAINED DESPITE THE TREMENDOUS SHEAR.                                         
IMPRESSIVE 120 KNOT JET AT 500 MB EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ALONG THE             
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL BE IN A             
VERY FAVORABLE SPOT...RIGHT EXIT REGION/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.                 
MESOETA SHOWING 700 MB OMEGA BULLSEYE OVER FLINT AT 21Z. MESOETA                
ALSO INDICATING LOW TO MID 50 SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO                 
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH CERTAINLY SEEMS                       
REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 40 POPS IN THE ZONES THIS                    
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...IT LOOKS TO BE AN ALL OR NOTHING EVENT. IF              
THE CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS...WIND DAMAGE IS LIKELY. WILL                      
GO WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZONES...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE               
MODERATE RISK ISSUED BY SPC.                                                    
DON'T THINK IT WILL HAPPEN...BUT DETROIT METRO HAS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE            
OF BREAKING THE RECORD MAX FOR TODAY (69 DEGREES SET IN 1964).                  
MESOETA INDICATING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING INTO THE 1370S              
(M) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. DON'T THINK THE DETROIT               
METRO AREA WILL TRULY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR...AS THE FRONT LOOKS             
TO BE OCCLUDED.                                                                 
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TODAY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK                  
UP...AS TREMENDOUS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE                  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA GO FROM +8C TO -8C IN 9 HOURS!! WITH THE               
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...A 16+ MB DIFFERENCE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN             
FROM WEST TO EAST....A WIND ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY (SUSTAINED WINDS            
>= 30 MPH FOR 1 HR OR GUSTS >= 45 MPH) TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS               
ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE WIND SPEEDS...60 KNOTS AT 850             
MB...40 TO 50 KNOTS AT 925 MB. NGM MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING                   
SUSTAINED 35 TO 36 KNOTS AT DTW LATE TONIGHT. SINCE WE ARE TALKING              
PERIOD 2...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE THE WIND ADVISORY. SINCE THE            
TIGHTEST GRADIENT IS OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (BETTER               
MIXING DURING THE DAY)...THINK WE WILL BY UNDER HIGH WIND WARNING               
CRITERIA.                                                                       
GFS AND ETA BOTH SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY               
TONIGHT...1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES 9 C/KM...ALONG WITH CAPES OF 50               
J/KG. WILL BE GOING WITH NUMEROUS POPS...AS INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE AT            
OR ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH THE WARM GROUND/SOIL TEMPS (AROUND                     
40)...WILL CALL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH.                       
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THURSDAY. WILL CARRY SCATTERED 50 POP...AS WE              
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY            
HAVE TO BE CONTINUED...AS 925 MB WINDS REMAIN STRONG (40+ KNOTS). WE            
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM TAPPING THIS.                                            
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT GRADUALLY WORKS INTO                 
LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD             
ON FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW           
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULTLY            
TIME CAPTURING THESE FEATURES...AND SUBSEQUENTLY EJECTING THEM                  
NORTHEASTWARD.                                                                  
THANKS TO CLE AND IWX FOR THEIR COORDINATION THROUGH 12PLANET.                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE POSITION AND             
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN                
LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEY FORECAST THE CENTER OF THE            
LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE STRAITS THIS EVENING AND INTO ONTARIO BY               
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE DEEPENING TO ABOUT 983 MB. THE VERY STRONG               
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN             
THE DOOR ON STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND SET UP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS                
OVER THE LAKES. MIXING WILL EASILY TAP INTO 50 TO 60 KNOT WINDS AND             
ADD CONFIDENCE TO THE GOING FORECAST OF STORM FORCE WINDS OVER LAKE             
HURON LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH                
RESPECT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR LAKE ERIE ARE NOT AS BAD AS               
THEY WERE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, BUT A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL             
BE OFFSHORE FOR U.S. WATERS OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND MI WATERS OF LAKE              
ERIE, SO 40KT GALES STILL LOOK GOOD.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
    HIGH WIND WARNING...ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...TONIGHT               
      THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.                                                 
    STORM WARNING...LAKE HURON...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                      
    GALE WARNING...LAKE ST CLAIR AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE               
      ERIE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SF/BT                                                                           
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1052 AM EST WED NOV 12 2003                                                     
...WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT ALL OF COUNTIES...                    
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR COUNTY             
WARNING AREA (CWA) AROUND 1100 AM THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT THE 12Z              
MESO ETA AT 12/06Z... IT HAS 90 KNOTS OF SURFACE GEOSTROPHIC WIND               
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF OUR CWA AND 80 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN                      
COUNTIES.  IF YOU USE 70 PCT OF THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND FOR THE MAX                
GUST... THAT WOULD SUGGEST GUSTS OVER 55 KNOTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA              
TONIGHT.  THE FSL RUC...WHICH IS DOING WELL AT 14Z FOR THE CURRENT              
WIND GUSTS AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AND EVEN AT BUOYS OVER THE                    
LAKES... SHOWS 50+ KNOT OVER LK MICHIGAN BY 03Z AND 50+ KNOT GUSTS              
OVER OUR SE COUNTIES BY 06Z.  40+ KNOT GUSTS COVERS THE REST OF THE             
CWA. GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE THAN 1 MB IN 10 MILES...               
AND THAT STRONG CAA WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW...ISSUING A HIGH WIND             
WARNING MAKES SENSE.  THE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z SO              
AT THIS TIME I DO NOT SEE EXTENDING IT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.                   
AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE FRONT IS CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN AS I                
WRITE THIS.  THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR AFTER THE FRONT COMES                         
THROUGH...THAT IS A PROBLEM.  WE NEED TO GET SURFACE TEMPERATURES               
INTO THE MID 60S (BASED ON SOUNDING FROM THE ETA AND RUC) TO GET THE            
CONVECTION TO BE SURFACE BASED.  THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY AND THE            
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS HIGH ENOUGH THAT TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE                
QUESTION EITHER. BEING IN THE EXIT REGION OF 170 KNOT 300 MB JET                
WITH A 50+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET HELPS TOO.  WE JUST NEED TO HEAT THE              
AIR TO 65F TO GET THIS TO HAPPEN.  WITH SO MUCH LOW CLOUD AHEAD OF              
THE FRONT... THAT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO.  EVEN SO...THE RUC AND ETA                
SUGGEST THE 850 MB DEW POINTS RISE ABOVE 4C BY 21Z.   CURRENTLY                 
THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ON RADAR OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN AND A HINT OF             
SOMETHING TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NEAR THE                   
FRONT.  ALL OF THIS TOGETHER WOULD SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR             
SEVERE CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN CWA... AFTER 200 PM.                      
SO I WILL UPDATE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND OTHERWISE                
LEAVE THE FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING NEW BUFFALO TO                 
MANISTEE STARTING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  HIGH WIND WARNING                  
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
633 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
HAD TO MAKE UPDATED TO ZONES BASED ON SLOWER MOVEMENT OF COLD FRONT.            
AS TEMPS MIX AHEAD OF THIS SOME LOCATIONS ALREADY SEEING THERE                  
HIGHS FOR THE DAY...SO WORDED SOUTHERN ZONES WITH TEMPERATURES                  
FALLING DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH THEY MIGHT CLIMB UP A BIT IN THE                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                   
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WIND WITH THE PASSAGE OF FRONT THIS MORNING.           
09Z MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE AREA OF 6 TO 8 MB PRESSURE RISES                
SLIDING ACROSS NW SD. WINDS HAVE REALLY PICKED UP ACROSS WESTERN SD             
WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR MORE. GETS TRICKIER            
AS FRONT ENTERS OUR CWA WITH SOME PARAMETERS HINTING AT REACHING                
WIND WARNING LEVELS THIS MORNING. IF WINDS WERE TO MIX DOWN 100                 
PERCENT FROM 850...COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS AT A FEW                    
LOCATIONS. FEEL THAT WE SHOULD LOSE A LITTLE MOMENTUM AS WINDS NOT              
TOTALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND WINDS WONT QUITE BE THAT STRONG SO WILL              
CONTINUE WITH A HIGH END ADVISORY FOR WINDS. THIS IN LINE WITH RUC2             
AND BUFKIT MEAN MIXED LAYER ESTIMATES. BASED ON 88D IMAGERY...A FEW             
AREAS OF PRECIP FORMING AHEAD OF FRONT...FEEL THIS WILL CONTINUE                
THROUGH THE DAY AS H500 DIV Q AXIS SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. THIS            
COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR             
RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF              
THE FORECAST. SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND             
BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT. AS IM NOT QUITE SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL KICK             
OUT AS FAST AS THE ETA IS ADVERTISING.                                          
.FSD...                                                                         
IA...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES IAZ001>003...IAZ012>014...               
IAZ020>022...IAZ031>032.                                                        
MN...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES MNZ071>072...MNZ080>081...               
MNZ089>090...MNZ097>098.                                                        
NE...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES NEZ013>014.                              
SD...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ038...SDZ050...                       
SDZ052>053...SDZ057>059...SDZ063>064.                                           
WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES SDZ039>040...SDZ054>056...                    
SDZ060>062...SDZ065>071.                                                        
$$                                                                              
JRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
305 PM MST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WITH A            
MOIST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA. THE LOW WILL            
MOVE INTO NEVADA THURSDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND SPREADING EAST...AND            
SHOWERS ENDING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE THURSDAY. A SERIES              
OF WEAK UPPER AIR SYSTEMS WILL DRIFT INTO ARIZONA...WITH SOME HIGH              
CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL MEAN A                   
WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING ONSHORE NEAR LAX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A VERY             
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA.  THE BEST FORCING AND PRECIP AREA            
ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTHERN CALIF...BUT AS THE LOW                
WRAPS UP AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE...THE PRIME AREA OF SHOWERS WILL              
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL              
CONTINUE...AS DEEP-LAYER RH STAYS OVER ARIZONA. MAX TEMPERATURES                
WERE ONLY IN THE 60S ON THE DESERTS...AND IN THE 50S HIER TRRN.                 
BY 13/12Z THE DRY SLOT WILL HAVE MOVED FARTHER EAST...AND SOME                  
DECREASE IN SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED.  PATCHY FOG ALSO A GOOD BET INTO            
THURSDAY MORNING AS SEVERAL HOURS OF HIGH SFC RH EXPECTED. RUC SHOWS            
HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO OUR EAST BY TONIGHT...AND WILL BUMP UP               
THE QPFS SOMEWHAT. THE GROUND HAS BEEN SOAKING IT UP NICELY AND WITH            
RAIN RATES LESS THAN .25 PER HOUR WE WILL HOLD OFF WITH FLASH FLOOD             
WATCH. A LARGE AREA OF LIFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL MOVE TO               
THE NORTHEAST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF CLOUD TO GROUND OR                   
IN-CLOUD LTG EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM FORECASTS COVERING THIS             
SCENARIO WELL.                                                                  
UPPER LOW STILL PROGGED TO LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK               
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING WEST OF BAJA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME                  
MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SOME CLOUDS AND SUN FOR OUR WEEKEND. HIGH                 
LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT SUFFICIENT HEIGHT RISES FOR              
MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 IN IMPERIAL                
COUNTY BY MIDWEEK.                                                              
SIPPLE                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PSR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
AZ...NONE.                                                                      
CA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
245 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS THIS CYCLE WILL BE FIRST PERIOD WINDS...THEN             
TIMING THE NEXT TWO WAVES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.                              
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS AND AREA 88D WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THAT              
VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK AT THIS TIME.                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOW              
STRONG WINDS WELL INTO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA COMMON...WITH A COUPLE             
STATIONS IN EASTERN IOWA APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. FOR NOW...               
EXPECT TO CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND                
NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO            
MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS RIGHT UP TO FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS             
SHOULD SLOWLY DIE DOWN WITH TIME AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER              
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAK LAKES PULLS EASTWARD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER             
SEPARATES AFTER DARK.                                                           
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS              
THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN             
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WILL HAVE A LONG TRIP TO               
MAKE IT TO ILLINOIS...SO WILL HAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT                
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS THE INITAL SOUTHWEST STATES               
CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING.               
THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAGER MOISTURE VALUES ARGUE FOR KEEPING POPS IN             
THE CHANCE RANGE SATURDAY. THE ETA AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY                     
CONSISTENT WITH TIMING THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS SURPRISING WHEN                  
CONSIDERING THE USUAL MODEL BIASES REGARDING THE EJECTION OF                    
SOUTHWESTERN CUTOFF LOWS.                                                       
AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON SUNDAY...THE KICKER FOR THE 1ST WAVE BEGINS              
AFFECTING THE MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE            
GFS HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENT              
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE BOTTLED UP ALONG               
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT ENOUGHT MOISTURE               
WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING DYNAMICS FURTHER NORTH TO WARRANT                 
KEEPING THE CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY. TUESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE                  
QUESTIONABLE SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.                                       
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...WIND ADVSY TIL 03Z ZNS 27>31..36>38..40>57..61.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
408 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM (UP TO 00Z FRI)...                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER                   
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND A STRONG VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A DEEP LOW OVER ESCANABA...WITH AN OCCLUDED             
LOW EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. MOISTURE WRAPPING               
AROUND THE LOW AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERATE SCATTERED                   
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY CHANGING            
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.               
MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT TO 24 HOURS. THE STRONGEST              
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. A WEAK            
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE AND 700MB OMEGA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS             
THE AREA. 290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT AND BOUNDARY LAYER RH              
SHOWING NEAR SATURATION AT THE LOW LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL JET HAS                  
A FAIRLY STRONG DIVERGENCE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. COMBINING                
THE INSTABILITY BETWEEN THESE WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE               
EVENING HOURS. 290K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWING STRONG DESCENT                  
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...THIS SHOULD HELP STEER THE 50 KNOT LOW                 
LEVEL JET OVER THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TOWARDS SURFACE...                     
ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOW WILL MOVE RAPID EAST REACHING            
NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY BY 03Z. THE NARROW BAND OF CONDENSATION                   
PRESSURE DEFICIT WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA             
THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE LAKE-850MB                   
DELTA-T'S TO AROUND 14C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THIS EVENING. THE                 
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FETCH TIME AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.           
DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL                       
CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED            
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT. Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE...AND ISENTROPIC                
DESCENT WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. ETA STILL SHOWING SOME            
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE                 
NORTHWEST. THIS ALONG WITH DELTA-T'S AROUND 16C SHOULD CONTINUE TO              
GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND THE NORTHERN U.P.                         
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A            
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER               
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DELTA-T'S WILL BE AROUND 16C OVER THE EASTERN               
U.P. ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONGEST OVER                  
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF LES OVER THE EAST               
PART OF FORECAST AREA. WARM ADVECTION AND DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE            
WEST...THUS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WEST IN THE                  
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER...THE              
THERE WILL LITTLE MIXING TO SURFACE. ADIABATIC CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE            
SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO SURFACE OVER EASTERN LAKE                    
SUPERIOR...AND WILL REACH INTO EASTERN U.P.                                     
DLG                                                                             
.LONGER TERM (00Z FRI ONWARD)...                                                
ETA SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON I280-I295 SURFACES WITH SOME                
MOISTURE WHICH PASSES ACROSS CWA FROM 00Z FRI-12Z FRI. THERE IS SOME            
WEAK 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WHICH MOVES INTO CWA THU NIGHT             
WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOWEST LEVELS REMAIN DRY THOUGH            
AND WILL NOT MENTION FLURRIES AT THIS POINT AS PCPN WOULD PROBABLY              
FALL AS VIRGA ANYWAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN             
AS LAKE-850 MB DELTA-T DECREASES AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE                      
ANTICYCLONIC AND THE INVERSION HEIGHT FALLS. BY 12Z FRI...THE                   
DELTA-T IS LOW ENOUGH THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE.             
AFTER THAT...QUIET...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER SETS UP THROUGH SUN AS              
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. FOR TEMPERATURES...UNDERCUT AVN               
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DUE TO FRESH SNOWCOVER WHICH                 
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY. WENT MORE TOWARDS COOLER ETA            
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
IN THE EXTENDED...MRF/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN               
CONSISTING OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS              
EASTERN CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SAT. THE            
SHORTWAVE IS OFF TO THE EAST OF CWA ON SUN WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING              
INTO THE ROCKIES. ECMWF ONLY MODEL TO KEEP SOME ENERGY FURTHER BACK             
TO THE SW WITH THE TROUGH OVER CA WHILE OTHER MODELS PUSH TROUGHING             
INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUN. UKMET...GFS AND MRF CONTINUE TO PUSH TROUGH            
TO THE EAST INTO THE PLAINS ON MON WHILE ECMWF SHOWS A CUTOFF LOW S             
OF YUMA AZ. NONE OF OTHER MODELS HAS THIS SOLUTION. MRF THEN SWINGS             
TROUGH INTO CWA LATE MON INTO TUE WHICH IS ALSO WHAT THE UKMET MODEL            
DOES. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES DO NO SUPPORT ECMWF SOLUTION AND SUPPORT               
THE OTHER 3 MODELS IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO. MRF/GFS ENSEMBLES ALL IN              
REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH VERY LITTLE VARIATION...SO CONFIDENCE IN              
EXTENDED FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO            
EXTENDED FORECAST TEMPERATURE WISE OR WEATHERWISE. TEMPERATURES LOOK            
TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL AND PCPN TYPE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON            
TIME OF DAY THAT PCPN FALLS. ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT             
CWA TUE INTO WED WHICH WILL BRING SOME WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.            
WENT CLOSE TO MRF MOS GUIDANCE AS THE TEMPERATURES FORECASTED SEEMED            
REASONABLE.                                                                     
MICHELS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
BLIZZARD WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING MIZ006-007-085.               
WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT MIZ001>005-009-084.                                
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ010>013.                              
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING                 
MIZ014.                                                                         
STORM WARNING EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                       
GALE WARNING WEST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
330 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
...HIGH WIND WARNING TONIGHT ALL OF COUNTIES...                                 
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE MAIN ISSUES THIS EVENING ARE THE HIGH WINDS AND SNOWFALL TONIGHT            
INTO THURSDAY.  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ISSUE SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED AS            
THE FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR THE CWA.                                       
ACTUALLY NO BIG CHANGES TO OUR PREVIOUS THINKING.  THE SYSTEM IS                
DOING WHAT WE EXPECTED... THAT IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY THANKS TO THE               
EXIT REGION OF THE 170+ KNOT (FCST BY ETA AND GFS) OVER IOWA.  THIS             
SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT AND "BOMBS" DOWN TO 973 MB ON THE             
MESO ETA BY 21Z THURSDAY OVER SRN QUEBEC. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE              
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH OVER KS BY 12Z THURSDAY AND                  
DEEPENING LOW OVER QUEBEC BY THEN...THE GEOSTROPHIC WIND INCREASES              
TO 80 TO 90 KNOTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z.  THUS BASED ON CURRENT            
TRENDS SHOWING WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS OVER IOWA AND WRN IL AT                 
20Z...THE FLS RUC SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KNOTS AND THE                   
GEOSTROPHIC WIND WITH STRONG CAA...THE HIGH WIND WARNING OVER THE               
CWA WILL BE CONTINUED.                                                          
WITH THAT WE WILL CONTINUE THE STORM WARNINGS ON LAKE MICHIGAN AND              
AND WILL ALSO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AGAIN TO COVER MARINE            
ISSUES.  I COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS ON THE BLUFFS OF THE                
LAKE MICHIGAN...MICHIGAN SIDE LAKE SHORE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH                   
QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM REDEVELOPS OVER QUEBEC                   
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.                                                   
AS FOR THE SNOW ISSUE... THE ETA HAS COME AROUND THE GFS FORECAST OF            
SEVERAL DAYS AGO IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW AND THAT               
THE COLD AIR WILL BE AROUND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS HAS COME              
CLOSER TO THE ETA ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW... THAT IS ACROSS             
NRN LWR MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  THEN TRIPLE POINT REDEVELOPMENT OVER                 
QUEBEC THURSDAY. SINCE THE COLD AIR POOL (500 COLD POOL AND                     
ASSOCIATED WIND MAX/VORTICITY LOBE) DOES NOT CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN               
UNTIL 21Z ON THURSDAY... THE DEEP COLD AIR AND THUS THE DEEPER LAKE             
CONVECTION WILL HANG IN THERE THROUGH THAT TIME. HOWEVER...BEFORE               
WE DEAL WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WE HAVE THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN                  
SHIELD TO DEAL WITH. THAT IS MOVING THROUGH MN / WRN WI AND UPPER MI            
AT 20Z AND WILL REACH WRN LWR BY 03Z.  THAT WILL LAST UNTIL 09Z.                
THE SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS TOOLS SUGGEST RAIN TO SNOW BTW 03Z AND              
06Z OVER THE ENTIRE CWA.  GIVEN THE BRIEF WINDOW OF THE DEEP                    
MOISTURE AND THE STRONG WINDS AND CHANGING WIND DIRECTION WITH TIME             
(WEST TURNING NORTHWEST)...I CAN NOT SEEM MUCH ACCUMULATION. BESIDE             
THE SURFACE COLD AIR (SURFACE AIR TEMPS. BELOW FREEZING) WILL NOT               
GET INTO ANY PART OF OUR CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN THAT WILL            
ONLY HAPPEN DUE TO FALLING SNOW.  SO MARGINAL FOR ACCUMULATION                  
ANYWAY. THUS 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NW SECTIONS WITH THE TERRAIN TO             
HELP THE ACCUMULATION ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.            
THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE OUR SW COUNTIES THANKS TO NW WINDS AND -10              
TO -11C 850 MB TEMPS MOST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  1 TO 3 INCHES IS             
POSSIBLE THERE.  NOT MUCH MORE SINCE THE HEIGHT OF THE 70 PCT RH                
STAYS BELOW 10000 FT AND AIR TEMP. WILL BE IN THE 30S... SO SNOW                
WILL ONLY ACCUMULATE WHEN IT IS SNOWING AT A MODERATE RATE OR                   
GREATER WHICH WILL HARDLY AT ALL.  OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE            
AIR BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.                                                       
SINCE I DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SINCE THE                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TO WARM TOO MUCH BLOWING AND DRIFTING... I WILL            
NOT ISSUE ANY SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT.                          
SKIES TRIES TO CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE UPPER              
COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.  THAT WILL BRING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION              
CLOUDS SO SKIES WILL ONLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. THAT WILL NOT LET IT            
GET AS COLD AS IT OTHERWISE WOULD.                                              
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH            
OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HEAD OF THE NEXT                    
UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVES IN.  REALLY IT COULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY IF THERE             
IS NOT TO MUCH MID LEVEL CLOUDS  (THOSE SHOULD BE GONE BY 18Z TO                
21Z).                                                                           
SATURDAY THE SOUTHERN CLOSED UPPER LOW BEING SHEARED OUT MOVES OVER             
TOWARD THE CWA.  THE MODELS ARE REALLY SPARES WITH THE MOISTURE ON              
THIS SYSTEM.  ACTUALLY IT SEEMS UNDER DONE BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF             
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.  BEING OUT AT 84 HRS WILL NOT GET CUTE WITH             
THIS BUT HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  THERE IS A ISSUE WITH MIXED RAIN            
AND SNOW BASED ON 850 MB TEMPS BEING FORECAST TO COOL BELOW 0C                  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS.                      
ZONES SHOULD GO OUT AT 400 PM.                                                  
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
IN GENERAL...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE NEEDED WITH THE LONG TERM PORTION            
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE             
A  SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. AFTER THE WAVE             
PASSES BY...THERE WILL BE A SHORT DRY PERIOD FOR SUN AFTERNOON AND              
NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH WILL RIDE UP JUST EAST            
OF THE AREA AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE                
STATE DRIVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A THREAT OF               
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE. THE PCPN TYPE WILL BE MAINLY RAIN            
UNTIL TUE NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING ON             
TUE NIGHT INTO WED DOWN TO -6C OR SO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL            
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...STORM WARNING NEW BUFFALO TO                 
MANISTEE STARTING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  HIGH WIND WARNING                  
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM NJJ                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN A               
LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND IS OVER             
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW AND FOG OVER                  
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS               
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA GENERATING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS              
OVER THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING A LOW OVER                
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH A OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO              
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A 1030MB HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH               
PLAINS SHOVING THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 50            
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.                  
KMQT-88D ALREADY DEPICTING A 35KNOT WIND AT 7K FEET.                            
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG Q-VECTOR               
CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHEREAS ETA IS SHOWING MUCH             
WEAKER DYNAMICS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL FAVOR THE ETA SINCE IT HAS BEEN            
DOING BETTER LATELY WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. 290K ISENTROPIC                   
ANALYSIS SHOWING A DECREASE IN CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT OVER               
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR                   
SATURATION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST THIS MORNING AND EARLY               
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. BY 21Z THE ISENTROPIC FLOW SHOW             
STRONG DESCENT OVER THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER ESCANABA.            
CLOSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT              
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                 
GENERATE MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WILL              
CHANGE THIS RAIN TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES AT 850 WILL SET UP LAKE-850MB            
DELTA-T'S TO AROUND 12C BY 00Z OVER THE WESTERN LAKE...PRODUCING                
SOME ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE IS               
AVAILABLE...DYNAMICS STILL SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN EARLIER             
EXPECTED SO WILL BUT SNOWFALL DOWN A BIT. WIND ENERGY HOWEVER WILL              
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO CHANGE IT.                                    
ETA CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP MOISTURE AND MAINLY DESCENT THROUGH THE              
EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO SURFACE. THE 50 KNOT LOW                 
LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THUS RESIDENT TIME OVER THE               
LAKE WILL BE SHORTEN CONSIDERABLY AND WILL TEND TO REDUCE LAKE                  
EFFECT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE WEST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT            
KEEP PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE EAST...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN                
FORECASTED.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
BLIZZARD WRNG TNGT INTO THU MIZ006-007-085.                                     
WINTER STORM WRNG THIS AFTN-TNGT MIZ001>005-009-084.                            
SN/BLSN ADVY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT MIZ010.                                        
SN/BLSN ADVY TNGT INTO THU MIZ014.                                              
HIGH WIND ADVY TNGT MIZ011>013.                                                 
STORM WRNG E HALF LK SUP.                                                       
GALE WRNG W HALF LK SUP.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 PM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                            
THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MAXIMUM IN THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE                 
RISES CENTERED BETWEEN MINNEAPOLIS AND NEW ULM. THE STRONGEST WINDS             
HAVE PROGRESSED IN CONCERT WITH THIS FEATURE SO FAR TODAY AND EXPECT            
THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE             
RUC MODEL FORECASTS THIS PRESSURE RISE MAX JUST EAST OF EAU CLAIRE              
AT 00Z SO EXPECT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH            
CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY REMAIN IN BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA               
UNTIL SUNSET BUT AGAIN EXPECT DECREASING SPEEDS EACH HOUR. THE UPPER            
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE PAST OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA                 
EARLY THURSDAY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IS INDICATED. EXPECT             
A WARMING TREND AND PLEASANT WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE             
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL                  
INDICATES AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT              
INTO SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY RESULTS IN A RAIN AND SNOW                 
MIXTURE UNDER THE LOW. IN THIS CASE...THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE TO                   
SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SPITE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
THE UPPER LOW. WILL USE A BROAD BRUSH AND MENTION A LOW PROB OF                 
PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
MEAN SPREADS QUITE LOW ON THE ENSEMBLES...SO 00Z/11/12 GFS WAS                  
USED.  APPEARS UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CWA SAT AND SAT               
NIGHT PERIOD.  THEN ANOTHER TROF MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY              
NIGHT...LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST MON INTO TUE.  HAVE FOLLOWED                   
ENSEMBLE POPS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO                 
NORTHEAST CWA FOR TUESDAY.  THEN GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN SHIFT WITH             
RATHER PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN US.  THIS WILL GIVE             
NICE WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1103 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                     
SFC BOUNDARY OVER FAR SRN ZONES CONTINUES TO UNDERGO STRONG                     
FRONTOGENESIS LATE THIS MORNING DUE TO INCREASING CAA TO THE NORTH              
AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG SRN EDGE OF CLOUD BOUNDARY.               
FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE RAPID SWD PROGRESS..AND SHUD CLEAR THE OUN              
CWA BY NOON. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE SOME RECOVERY HOWEVER.                  
CURRENT MESONET TRENDS INDICATE 3 HR TEMP CHANGES OF +5 TO +10.                 
DESPITE COLD ADVECTION BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED. THE STRONGEST COLD            
ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE IS CURRENTLY OCCURING OVER NE KS..AND THIS             
BULLSEYE OF CAA WILL SLIDE WELL TO THE NE OF THE OUN CWA.  BETTER               
SFC CAA..ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN NE                
KS..WILL WORK INTO THE NRN ZONES BETWEEN 19-21Z.  MUCH DRIER AIR IN             
THE LOW LEVELS HAS INFILTRATED THE ENTIRE AREA..BUT STREAM OF                   
COPIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE              
REST OF THE DAY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  CURRENT VIZ SAT AND            
A QUICK LOOK OUT THE WINDOW..INDICATED THAT THERE AREA SOME BREAKS              
AND RATHER LARGE AREAS WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE QUITE THIN. EXPECT                  
CLOUDS TO LIMIT HEATING SOMEWHAT..BUT COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW                 
LEVEL WINDS/MIXING AND FILTERED SUN SHUD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW                 
TEMPS TO RISE ANOTHER 5-8 DEGREES WHICH WILL PUT THEM PRETTY MUCH IN            
LINE WITH GOING HI TEMP FORECAST.  PROFILER WINDS ARE VERY STRONG               
JUST OFF THE DECK..BUT 70 KT SPEED AT LAMONT EARLIER APPEARS TO BE              
BIRD  CONTAMINATED.  WINDS SHUD BE IN LAKE CAUTION CATEGORY FOR MOST            
OF THE DAY..BUT EXPECT TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                       
RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING..AND                    
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP WILL CONT TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY IN THE            
NW LATE TONITE/THUR.  LATEST ETA RUN IS EVEN COLDER THRU A DEEP                 
LAYER TOMORROW..AND REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT ON TIMING/STRENGTH/                 
POSITION OF VERY STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FORCING BECOMING ESTABLISHED              
BY 09Z TONITE.  DRY AIR IN LOW LEVELS WILL BE A CONCERN..BUT MODELS             
USUALLY DO NOT SATURATE LOW LEVELS FAST ENUF IN THIS TYPE OF                    
REGIME.                                                                         
 MILLER                                                                         
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~                                                      
418 AM CST WED NOV 12 2003                                                      
MESSY FORECAST... AGAIN.  A SMALL SURFACE LOW IS SCOOTING EAST                  
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.  IT IS MOVING ALONG AN              
APPARENT WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS EAST AND WEST FROM THE              
LOW.  AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND              
IT... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES            
- IN MOST AREAS - WILL FOLLOW.  SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS               
MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S BEFORE THE COOLER AIR CUTS OFF THE UPWARD               
CLIMB.  THE REALLY COOL AIR SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST                      
TONIGHT... AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS DISCONTINUITY TO THE                         
TEMPERATURES... JUST A STEADY COOL-DOWN.                                        
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT SHORT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE                
NEXT DAY OR TWO... BUT THE WIND SHIFT/FRONT TODAY MIGHT KICK UP A               
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO... AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD BRING                
GENERAL LIGHT RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES               
MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY MORNING IN            
THE FAR NORTHWEST... WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY                
ACCUMULATION.  A COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO              
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.                               
IN GENERAL... FOLLOWED TIMING OF THE RUC IN THE IMMEDIATE                       
NEAR-TERM... MESOETA LATER ON... AND GFS FOR LATER PERIODS.                     
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF IN THE LATER PERIODS REDUCE              
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE PERIODS.                                                    
FCSTID = 23 = CMS                                                               
OKC  68 40 48 36 / 20 10 20 50                                                  
HBR  68 40 44 35 / 20 10 40 40                                                  
SPS  75 42 48 38 / 20 20 30 50                                                  
GAG  62 30 40 34 / 10 10 50 30                                                  
PNC  65 36 48 35 / 10 00 10 30                                                  
DUA  77 44 55 38 / 30 10 20 40                                                  
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ok