AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
220 PM PDT WED APR 25 2001                                                      
MOST TEMPS RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS ANTICIPATED. APPEARS THE            
SAC RECORD OF 92F WILL BE TIED OR BROKEN BY 530 PM. WINDS ARE                   
LIGHT...EVEN DELTA WITH FLAT SFO-SAC GRADIENT. CUMULUS HAVE                     
DEVELOPED OVER THE BURNEY BASIN/SOUTHERN CASCADES AND A FEW IN THE              
COASTAL RANGE. LAPS CAPES ARE SHOWING 400-1000J/KG IN THIS REGION.              
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER ANY TCU CAN BECOME CB'S             
TODAY. ANY STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. ETA SHOWS PW'S REACHING NEAR              
.80-IN NEAR REDDING THIS EVENING. 12Z ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC TO             
BE A HIGH 10 TO 12KFT WITH LARGE CINS BELOW THIS. 500-MB LI'S ARE -1            
TO -2 AND 850-500-MB LAPSE RATES ARE 7.5C/KM. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN            
AXIS OF HIGHER PW'S TO ADVECT INTO NORCAL LATE TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK            
VORT AXIS. AVN IS FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS            
IT MOVING INTO THE NORTH COAST ATTM. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ON THE ETA            
REMAIN HIGH (200-400 J/KG) SO HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO                    
TRIGGER/LIFT. LATEST 18Z RUC SHOWS VALUES PROGGED TO 1300 J/KG THIS             
EVENING WITH NO CINS IN THE LASSEN AREA. 00Z-06Z THU QVEC                       
CONVERGENCE MAY ADD THE NEEDED DESTABILIZATION. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXIST            
TODAY BUT IS RATHER WEAK. STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COUPLE             
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OR FAR NRN                    
SIERNEV. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO OUR SRN SIERNEV ON THURSDAY                 
WHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVER THE NRN MTNS             
WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE SIERNEV KEEPING BUILDUPS NEAR THE             
CREST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON TAKING A TRACK OVER THE SJ VALLEY INTO THE SRN SIERRA.                
WILL PUT ISOLD TSRA FOR SIERRA CREST AND COORD WITH RENO. AVN SHOWS             
200-400 J/KG CAPE FROM I-80 CREST SOUTHWARD AND ETA LI'S ARE -2.                
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY THOUGH MARINE INFLUENCE SHOULD BE FELT             
IN THE DELTA AND MAYBE SAC AREA AS DEPTH INCREASES. H85 TEMPS LOWER             
1-2C OVER THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS NOW SEEN ALONG 130W WILL MOVE INTO            
THE STATE. SFO-SAC GRADIENT INCREASES TO 2.5-MB BY 00Z FRIDAY                   
LEADING TO A DELTA BREEZE THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT INCREASES TO                 
3.5-MB FRIDAY AND H85 TEMPS DROP 4-6C. GOOD DELTA BREEZE SHOULD CONT            
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING THE OREGON                
BORDER AND DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORCAL ON FRIDAY. PRECIP             
WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR OUR CWA WITH ONLY DYNAMICS IN                
FAR NORCAL. INCREASING H85-5 SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY AS WELL.                     
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO BE              
SATURDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGGING THRU NORCAL AND                  
ASSOCIATED H7-5 QVEC CONVERGENCE. H85 TEMPS LOWERING TO 6C AND MARINE           
INFLUENCE WILL MAKE FOR THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE. 12Z            
UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE TRENDING A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE STORM TRACK              
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z/24 ECMWF. BASED ON MODEL TRENDS AND THE TIME OF              
YEAR WILL LEAN TO DRIER/WARMER SOLUTIONS AND ONLY MENTION SHOWERS               
MONDAY (MIGHT BE SUNDAY NIGHT) AND TUESDAY FOR THE FAR NORTH AND                
THIS LOOKS MARGINAL. SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD HAVE A NICE WARMING TREND.             
WILL REMOVE SHOWERS THAT WERE PLACED IN THE CENTRAL SAC VLY.                    
PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS SEEN MON-WED IN THE PACNW BUT SYSTEMS MAY BE TOO            
FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR CWA.                                                    
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
BLU UB 052/066 049/060 041 650-0                                                
RBL UU 052/084 053/078 048 65000                                                
SAC UU 053/082 052/075 050 65000                                                
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
905 AM PDT WED APR 25 2001                                                      
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM AIR RESOURCE BOARD SHOW ABOUT 5F OF WARMING AT           
5000FT...THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE              
MIX OUT. H85 TEMPS ON KOAK SOUNDING ARE 1C WARMER AND MARINE LAYER              
DEEPENED A TAD BUT ONLY AROUND 700 FEET. OUR RECORD OF 92F SET IN               
1987 IS SOFT AND WE SHOULD GET CLOSE TO IT BY LATE IN THE DAY.                  
ACV-SFO GRADIENT IS DOWN 2-MB WHILE THE SFO-SAC REMAINS FLAT WITH               
THERMAL TROF OVER THE AREA. SKIES ARE CLEAR EVERYWHERE.                         
SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUSES MORE ON MOIST CONVECTIVE CHANCES. AT THIS            
TIME PROBABLY WILL NOT UPDATE TO REINTRODUCE BUT MONITOR AND IF                 
ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP IT CAN GO IN THE 3PM PACKAGE. ANY STORMS                  
SHOULD BE ISOLATED. YESTERDAY SAW LOTS OF MODERATE TO ALMOST                    
TOWERING CUMULUS ALONG THE SRN CASCADES/NRN SIERNEV CREST. WHAT HAS             
CHANGED TODAY IS THAT PW'S ARE OBSERVED UP TO .40-IN AT KRNO WHICH              
IS A MODEST INCREASE FROM .36-IN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER SLIGHT INCREASES            
IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY. THIS SOUNDING IS CAPPED                  
AROUND 14000FT. MEDFORD SOUNDING PW'S ARE 0.74-IN UP FROM 0.62-IN               
24-H AGO. ETA SHOWS PW'S REACHING NEAR .80-IN NEAR REDDING. THIS IS             
A MOIST AIRMASS THOUGH NOT AS MOIST AT MONSOON SEASON. THERE IS ALSO            
A CAP ON MFD SOUNDING BUT IT IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY. 12Z               
ETA AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC TO BE A HIGH 10 TO 12KFT WITH                
LARGE CINS BELOW THIS. 500-MB LI'S ARE -1 TO -2 AND 850-500-MB LAPSE            
RATES ARE 7.5C/KM. MODELS CONT TO SHOW AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW'S TO                
ADVECT INTO NORCAL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK VORT AXIS. AVN IS             
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS CLUES OF ITS                 
EXISTENCE NEAR 125W/35N MOVING NE. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES ON THE ETA              
REMAIN HIGH (200-400 J/KG) SO HIGH TERRAIN WILL BE NEEDED TO                    
TRIGGER/LIFT. 00Z-06Z THU QVEC CONVERGENCE MAY ADD THE NEEDED                   
DESTABILIZATION. SOUTHWEST FLOW EXIST TODAY BUT IS RATHER WEAK.                 
STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP              
IN THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OR FAR NRN SIERNEV LATE TODAY AS ITS HARD              
TO IGNORE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BY MODEL RUNS.            
BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO OUR SRN SIERNEV ON THURSDAY WHILE MID                
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY OVER THE NRN MTNS WITH WEAK             
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SIERNEV KEEPING BUILDUPS NEAR THE CREST. WILL LOOK           
MORE AT THIS FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                             
SHOULD SNEAK OUT ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY THOUGH MARINE                     
INFLUENCE SHOULD BE FELT IN THE DELTA AND MAYBE SAC AREA AS DEPTH               
INCREASES. H85 TEMPS LOWER 1-2C OVER THE REGION. SFO-SAC GRADIENT               
INCREASES TO 2.5-MB BY 00Z FRIDAY LEADING TO A DELTA BREEZE THURSDAY            
NIGHT. GRADIENT INCREASES TO 3.5-MB FRIDAY. GOOD DELTA BREEZE SHOULD            
CONT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING THE                  
OREGON BORDER AND DROPPING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORCAL ON FRIDAY.             
PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR OUR CWA. INCREASING H85-5             
SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY.                                                          
.STO...NONE.                                                                    
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
855 PM EDT WED APR 25 2001                                                      
00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE             
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF UP TO THE APPALACHIANS. THE KTLH               
SOUNDING WAS MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE                  
LATEST RUC FORECASTS DRY AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE,              
AND FOR THE REMAINING CLOUDS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TO SLOWLY                    
DISSIPATE. WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ZONES...EXCEPT            
TO TAKE OUT SLIGHT POPS FROM SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE CWF LOOKS FINE.            
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY AFTN.                    
FOURNIER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1045 AM EDT WED APR 25 2001                                                     
THE CURRENT RUC MODEL SHOWS THAT THE CLOUDS WITH THE SHORT WAVE                 
APPROACHING FROM IL WILL EVAPORATE BY THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT ZONE            
FORECASTS LOOK FINE AND WILL NOT BE CHANGED.                                    
.JKL...FREEZE ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES 052-058>060-068-069-085>088-           
       104-106>120                                                              
       FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES 044-050-051-079-080-083-084             
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON                   
SCHAUB                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1020 AM EDT WED APR 25 2001                                                     
WILL UPDATE THE ZONES IN A FEW TO CLEAN UP MORNING WORDING.                     
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOWING UP NICELY ON WATER                     
VAPOR...VISIBLE AND CHICAGO RADAR.  THIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH OF             
THE AREA WITH A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY MIDLEVEL SCT-BKN SKIMMING MONROE            
AND LENAWEE COUNTIES.  SATELLITE AND RUC ALSO SHOW A POCKET OF 700MB            
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...THIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THIS             
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB...HOWEVER...OMEGA LIFT              
TO GO NEGATIVE WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE MOST OF THE CURRENT CLOUDS                
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OVERALL...SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH               
JUST A FEW CLOUDS.                                                              
TEMPS RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING FROM ITS COOL START IN THE LOW 30S.           
850 TEMPS ABOUT 0 TO -2 FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...AS MIXING                   
BEGINS...TEMPS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THEIR UPWARD TREND.  RIGHT                      
NOW...CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 60 LOOKS ON TRACK.                          
DRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
721 PM EDT WED APR 25 2001                                                      
SHRA ARE POPPING UP OVER THE WRN UPSTATE AND SRN NC MTNS ATTM. MSAS             
SHOWS SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE WRN UPSTATE.                 
DWPTS AS HIGH AS THE L50S ARE BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE SE.               
ETA SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT LAPSE RATES WL ONLY STEEPING OVER THE              
NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG VORT CROSS THE CWA. THUS...EXPECT SHRA TO              
ORGANIZE A LITEL AS THEY CONTINUE TO TO MOVE SE INTO BETTER                     
MOISTURE. WL UPSTATE ZONES FOR 40 POP SHRA FROM PICKENS TO GREENWOOD            
AND POINTS SW. ETA AND 21Z RUC GENERATE A NICE AREA OF 60-70% RH/S              
OVER THE WRN UPSTATE STARTING NOW...BUT MUCH DRIER IN MTNS.                     
THUS...THINK CONVECTION WL MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NOT BE A             
FACTOR THERE MUCH LONGER. AT LEAST NOT IN NC...WL ALSO INCLUDE POPS             
FOR SC MTNS.                                                                    
FCSTID = 14                                                                     
GSP   42  70  43  78 /  20   0   0   0                                          
AND   43  71  44  79 /  20   0   0   0                                          
CLT   41  69  43  78 /  20   0   0   0                                          
HKY   40  67  42  78 /  20   0   0   0                                          
AVL   37  66  37  75 /  20   0   0   0                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FROST ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033...NCZ049>050.             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
944 PM EDT WED APR 25 2001                                                      
WILL OPT TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
HI PRESS RIDGE TO CONT TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA TONITE. THIS RIDGE             
TO START TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE FA ON THU...AS A CF DROPS DOWN             
ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN CANADA. UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE             
FA TONITE. S/W (AS SEEN IN H2O VAP IMAGERY) TO MOVE ACRS QUE TONITE.            
21Z RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE M30S-L40S TONITE. T1MIN                
TEMPS ARE IN THE 20S. CURRENT OBS TRENDS INDICATE THAT RUC TEMPS ARE            
PROLLY TOO WARM AND MIGHT BE AN UPR LIMIT TO TONITE/S LOW TEMPS. FEW            
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS (MOSTLY TO WIDEN RANGES) BASED ON THIS.            
SFC WINDS TO MOSTLY BE LT OVRNITE TONITE...AS CURRENT FORECAST                  
INDICATES. MID-LVLS TO BE DRY TONITE AND ON THU. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY            
OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED ACRS THE FA AS WELL TONITE.                   
H85 NEUTRAL ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE...THEN WK WAA            
DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA ON THU. LOW-LVLS TO BE DRY THU. PW VALUES                
APPEAR TO BE AROUND 0.25" ACRS THE FA TONITE AND ON THU. NO PCPN                
EXPECTED THOUGH EITHER TONITE OR ON THU.                                        
GOES-8 IR SAT PIX SHOW CU FIELD DYING ACRS PART OF THE FA ATTM WHILE            
HIR LVL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FA. FEW MINOR             
COSMETIC CHANGES GOING ZFP OTRW EVERYTHING ELSE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.              
HYDRO-WISE...FLW STILL IN EFFECT FOR CENV1 AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE              
DROPPED SOMETIME ON THU. LK CHAMP WILL CONT TO BE ABOVE FS FOR QUITE            
SOME TIME THOUGH.                                                               
BTV ASOS OTS ATTM AND ET ON THE WAY TO FIX IT. MANUAL OBS UNDERWAY              
HERE ATTM.                                                                      
WORK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 10 PM.                             
.BTV...FLW FOR CENV1 AND FOR LK CHAMP.                                          
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
243 AM EDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
CURRENTLY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MARKED PRETTY WELL NEAR CANAVERAL            
BY BAND OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS.  NORTH WINDS ALSO STARTING TO KICK              
IN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS EXTENDS WELL              
TO THE NORTH IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW             
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.                                                         
TODAY...FRONT SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH AS LOW                    
DEEPENS.  HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE H85 TROUGH LAGGING WITH AXIS                
PASSING THROUGH THE THE NORTH BY MIDDAY AND REACHING THE SOUTH                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SURFACE-850 RH STAYS ABOVE 70 PERCENT UNTIL              
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.  THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO CARRY CONSIDERABLE              
CLOUDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.  NORTH NORTHEAST             
FLOW OFF OF ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN THE SLOWEST CLEARING ALONG                
COASTAL SECTIONS.  GUIDANCE INDICATING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH                 
DIMINISHING NORTHEAST WINDS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME COASTAL             
CLOUDINESS THOUGH.  SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS GEORGIA MAY ALLOW              
ONSHORE WINDS TO DIMINISH LATE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EXPECT A                    
NOTABLE INLAND/COASTAL RANGE OF TEMPS.                                          
FRIDAY...RIDGE ALIGNS ITSELF ALONG 30N WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING TO            
EAST NORTHEAST.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EXTENSIVE LAYER OF DRY              
AIR. CIRRUS DECK ALSO NOTED (OUT AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVING               
INTO THE WESTERN GULF).  SHOULD ALSO BE SCATTERED MARINE CLOUDINESS             
IN NORTHEAST FLOW THAT DEEPENS TO H85.  ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE A              
PARTLY SUNNY DAY.                                                               
EXTENDED...NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOW            
AS EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY LAYER WILL ONLY BE GRADUALLY MODIFIED.               
SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS IMPRESSIVE BACKDOOR             
FRONT MOVES DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT             
WILL REACH THE AREA BUT STRONG HIGH BUILDING TO THE MID ATLANTIC                
COAST WILL KEEP PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.  PERSISTENT WEAK CYCLONIC             
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TRAPPED BENEATH RIDGE ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF            
THE COUNTRY WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS.                      
EVENTUALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF                   
RAIN...BUT PROBABLY WILL WAIT UNTIL MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT                  
CHANCE SOUTHERN COASTAL POPS OVER THE WEEKEND.                                  
FIRE WEATHER...PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON WATCH FOR FAR NRN AREAS TODAY             
AS MODELS PROG DRIEST LOW LVL AIR TO REACH NRN CWA THIS EVENING AND             
TONIGHT. STILL COULD SEE MIN RHS DROP TO ARND 40 PCT WITH GUSTY                 
WINDS ACROSS FAR NRN SECTIONS SO DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR                 
CLOSELY. FOR FRI...FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR NRN INTERIOR                
SECTIONS FOR MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH. COORD WITH TBW.                      
MARINE...20 KNOT OR GREATER NORTH WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS.               
RUC AND MESO ETA SHIFT THIS SURGE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS                   
MORNING AND THE SOUTHERN LEG BY AFTERNOON. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL             
CONTINUE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE NORTH THOUGH...AS GRADIENT            
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THERE. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL            
KEEP WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  AVN SHOWS GRADIENT            
TIGHTENING TO ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH REBUILDS TO THE                 
NORTH.                                                                          
PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...                                                      
DAB BB 073/056 076/056 078 -000                                                 
MCO BB 078/057 079/059 082 -000                                                 
MLB BB 076/061 078/066 079 -000                                                 
.MLB...SCA FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                                      
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRI AFTN FOR LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE                 
       INLAND VOLUSIA.                                                          
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
232 AM EDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
SYNOPSIS: MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS            
EARLY THIS MORNING RUNNING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS GA. DEW POINTS ARE              
IN THE 30S IN ATL AND CSG AND POINTS N AND W...BUT IN THE 50S IN MCN            
AND ABY AND POINTS S AND E. THIS MAY THROW A FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR            
THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. ABY ALREADY SHOWING 6SM VSBY. SATELLITE PIX             
ALSO SHOWING CEILINGS ABOUT 1000-1500 FT ADVECTING SWWD ACROSS SE GA            
AND NE FL. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR ERN ZONES. POST                   
FRONTAL CLOUDS BEHIND YESTERDAY/S FRONT...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE                 
STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...HAVE RECENTLY CLEARED DIXIE              
CO. AT UPPER LEVELS...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE             
TROUGH IN SC.                                                                   
MODEL DISCUSSION: GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE ACROSS              
THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. ERN U.S. TROUGH SWINGS TO NC                 
COAST TODAY AND SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW E OF HATTERAS. BOTH FEATURES             
THEN MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES               
OVER THE SE CONUS. THE WRN U.S UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EWD TO THE               
CENTRAL N AMERICA BY SAT.                                                       
PUBLIC FORECAST: ETA AND NGM TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DEPICT                  
ENOUGH SURFACE RH FOR A LIGHT FOG IF WINDS DECOUPLE. WILL KEEP AN               
EYE ON THE OBS AND THROW PATCHY FOG IN THE ERN ZONES IF NECESSARY.              
MOST LIKELY...IT WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO MENTION. MOST                
MODELS NOT HANDLING STRATUS DECK VERY WELL...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST RUC            
SHOWS IT MIXING AWAY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME            
MORNING CLOUDS IN OUR SE ZONES. AFTER THAT...IT/S CLEAR SAILING FOR             
A COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HAVE BASICALLY A TEMP AND WIND FORECAST INTO             
THE WEEKEND. TEMP GUIDANCE GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD...EXCEPT MAV MIN                
TEMPS ARE TOO COOL FOR TLH THE NEXT TWO NIGHT. FAN LOOKS BEST.                  
MARINE: IT APPEARS NOCTURNAL MIXING OVER THE WATERS IS NOT AS                   
EFFICIENT IN THE MOIST AIR AND 42036 HAS YET TO REACH SCEC...EXCEPT             
BRIEFLY BEHIND A GUST FRONT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AROUND GNV WHICH            
IS BEING PROPELLED SWWD IN THE NE FLOW. MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS WILL             
NOT STAY UP HERE...SO WILL LIKELY REMOVE HEADLINE FOR E LEG. WINDS              
THEN GO THROUGH THEIR DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS...BUT REMAIN BELOW                   
CRITERIA THROUGH SAT. LONG DURATION E FLOW SETS UP FROM SAT ONWARD              
WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ENOUGH TO SEE HEADLINES AGAIN BY SUN.              
FIRE WX: RED FLAG WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE FOR TODAY LOOKS                      
GOOD...ALTHOUGH WE MAY NOT MEET CRITERIA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.             
A WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR LOW RH DURATIONS ON FRI.                             
EXTENDED: AVN STILL SHOWS A WEAK WAVE MOVING NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL              
GULF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER TX MOVING E TOWARD               
THE GULF. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IMPLIES BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR S AND              
CENTRAL FL. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE NEXT WEEK IS STILL IN               
QUESTION...BUT CHANCE POPS IN CURRENT FORECAST LOOK REASONABLE FOR              
MID WEEK. NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                                   
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  79 45 82 48  0000                                                          
PFN  78 55 77 58  0000                                                          
DHN  78 52 83 55  0000                                                          
ABY  77 47 82 51  0000                                                          
VLD  77 46 82 50  0000                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST 11 AM TO SUNSET TODAY.            
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL BUT IMMEDIATE COAST 11 AM TO SUNSET FRI.            
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
208 AM CDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
IF THERE WAS A DAY TO KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST, TODAY'S THE                
DAY.  PROGGED WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY, CONFIRMED BY VEERING PROFILER            
WINDS, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN NORTHERN IA INTO MN.  CURRENT            
RUC 850-700MB QN SHOWING WHERE LIFT IS OCCURRING NICELY WITH IR                 
CLOUD FIELDS IN MN/WI AND ALSO IN CENTRAL KS.  DRY SOUNDINGS MAKING             
IT TOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP TO DEVELOP.  LAST FEW IR IMAGES SHOWING AC              
DEVELOPMENT IN NW IA, WHICH MAY EXPAND SOME WHILE LLJ PEAKS NEXT                
COUPLE HOURS.  NOT EXPECTING PRECIP AT THIS POINT GIVEN LACK OF                 
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  THERMAL RIDGE AT SURFACE-850MB WILL ALIGN                
ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN IA AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
80-85 TEMPS A SOLID BET.  WEAK TO MODERATE CONVERGENCE PROGGED BY               
META/AVN/NGM MODELS, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING.  EVAPORATION DID            
INDEED RAISE SURFACE DEW POINTS IN WET AREAS IMMEDIATELY NW OF IA,              
AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MAY POOL AGAIN TODAY ALONG FRONT, BUT                 
LIKELY MUCH SHORT OF THE LOW 60 DEW POINTS FORECAST BY THE META.                
THIS SHOULD CUT CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  AGREE WITH SPC DY1                  
OUTLOOK.  AMPLE HEATING SHOULD AID SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING             
SHORT WINDOW 21Z-02Z.  FRONT WILL SLIDE S OF IA BY 06Z, SO WILL                 
INCLUDE AN EVENING 20 POP ALO-AMW-DNS AND S.                                    
LONGER TERM...                                                                  
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL TRIM LOWS BY A FEW            
DEGREES TONIGHT, AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY, BUT NOT MUCH.  BOUNDARY STALLS            
IN NORTHERN MO AND KS BEFORE RETURNING N FRIDAY NIGHT.  POOLING OF              
MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT DESTABILIZES ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH                    
SHOWALTERS DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW 0, ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE             
IN THE LLJ ALONG ENTIRE STRETCH OF BOUNDARY.  RESULTING THETAE                  
ADVECTION MAY DRIVE A NARROW BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BETWEEN                
06-12Z IN OUR CWA, OF WHICH THE ETA/AVN AGREE ON SOME LIMITED QPF.              
WILL GO WITH A 30 POP FRIDAY NIGHT.                                             
EXTENDED...                                                                     
WILL DOUBLE CHECK NEW MRF, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE CHANGES TO EXTENDED            
EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SATURDAY MORNING PRECIP FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.           
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 AM EDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
MAIN CONCERN IS LGT PCPN CHCS TDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH WK CDNFT.                 
WV IMAGERY AND RUC IDENTIFY A SHRTWV OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES THIS AM            
AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER SC. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ALSO OVER                  
WESTERN HUDSON BAY. TO THE WEST A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WRN             
ROCKIES AND CAN BC. A CDFNT STRETCHES ACRS MN THIS AM FROM THE LOW              
OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY. A SFC RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS OVER              
THE NE CONUS. THE ROCKIES IS DOMINATED BY THIS RIDGE.                           
MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENTS IN THE TRACKING OF SYS THROUGH FA DURING                
THIS FCST PERIOD. THE SC LOW WILL MOV OFF INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC                 
TODAY. THE HUDSON BAY LOW WILL SHIFT TO NRN QUEBEC DRAGGING THE                 
CDFNT THRU UPR MI. A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO MANITOBA AND NRN PLAINS.             
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA               
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONDITION MARGINALLY DRY WITH A BAND OF                
MEAN SFC-H85 RH OF >80 PCT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF               
THE CDFNT. THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL DRY OUT WITH THE               
MEAN RH FALLING TO <30PCT. AS THE FRONT PASSES EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT TO            
DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF FA                  
TODAY. WITH THE DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE LATEST ETA SHOWING              
CAPE VALUES TO REMAIN LESS THAN 200J/KG AND LI'S >4 IN ASSOC WITH               
FROPA. HOWEVER...BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE 85KT ULJ MAX WILL MOVE                 
E...PLACING THE THE ERN UP PLACING THE UNDER ITS LEFT EXIT                      
REGION. A WEAK SHRTWV WILL PASS OVR THE EASTERN U P AS WELL. IN                 
SPITE OF LIMITED CAPE VALUES AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THE ULJ/SHRTWV              
ENERGY AND THE CDFNT WILL SUPPORT A POSSIBLE TSRA OR TWO OVER ERN               
PART OF FA TDA.                                                                 
THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO MN TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE CDFNT. AS THE            
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THE MEAN                
SFC-H50 RH WILL REMAIN <50 PCT TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE              
RIDGE...ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE TAKING                 
PLACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THUS EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                            
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY                 
NIGHT ALONG WILL CONT DRY COND.                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
330 AM CDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH FRONT LATER TODAY AND                
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/AVN/NGM/RUC PROGOLOGY IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT           
WITH SPEED OF COOL FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH CWA THIS              
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PROGS GENERALLY AGREE THAT CORE OF UPPER JET           
REMAINS WELL AWAY FROM CWA ALONG WITH DECENT 500 MILLIBAR VORTICITY.            
HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE/RUC 500 MILLIBAR PROG COMBO SHOWS 11 UNIT             
VORTICITY ENTERING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PRECEDED BY AREA OF CLOUDS IN            
VICINITY OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 700 MILLIBAR PROGS MORE INSISTENT WITH            
SLUG OF MOISTURE AND GOOD VERTICAL MOTION TIMED WITH FRONT/S ARRIVAL            
DURING MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION 850 MILLIBAR THERMAL                
RIDGE COINCIDES WELL WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL. ONLY MINOR                  
DRAWBACK IS THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NUMBERS...WHILE FOCUSED ALONG            
FRONT...ARE NOT VERY HIGH. NEVERTHELESS FEEL CURRENT FORECAST FOR               
TIMING AND CHANCY NATURE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE MARK...SO              
WILL NOT CHANGE WORDING AT THIS POINT.                                          
IN THE FAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF CWA AFTER                
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WEATHER NIL WITH NORTHEAST WINDS MAIN                  
CHALLENGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST.                                              
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
935 AM EDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
CLOUDS PERSISTING IN FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT...EXCEPT N OF I-40. WILL                
CHANGE SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY...AND RESIST URGE TO RAISE                    
MAXIMUMS...DESPITE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTING WARMER                        
TEMPERATURES. RUC SHOWS N FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH            
DAY...AND DELAYED WIND SHIFT UNTIL THIS EVENING. DID RAISE MAXIMUM              
I-40 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS ABSENT.                                              
TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 20S TO MID 30S COMING IN FROM PORTIONS OF NC              
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...DESPIT HIGIH DEW POINTS AT MTR STATIONS.               
TONIGHT WILL BE EVEN BETTER RADIATIONAL NIGHT WITH LESS WIND AND                
LESS CLOUDS...SO HAVE EXTENED FROST ADVISORY INTO N NC MOUNTAINS                
...AND CONTINUED IT IN S AND C NC MOUNTAINS. ALSO ISSUED SPS FOR                
SCATTERED FROST GA/SC MOUNTAINS.                                                
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
GSP   71  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0                                          
AND   71  43  80  50 /  10   0   0   0                                          
CLT   70  41  78  47 /   0   0   0   0                                          
HKY   69  40  76  48 /   0   0   0  10                                          
AVL   69  36  74  43 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...FROST ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ048...                      
NCZ051>053...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>065.                                           
FROST ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033...NCZ049>050.                
SC...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
925 AM CDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING           
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE...AND MUCH OF THE E U.S. TEMPS                 
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 15 TO 20                     
DEGREES...UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MSAS SFC ANALYSES DEPICTING           
RIDGING APEX ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER AIR HAND CHARTS ILLUSTRATING                
DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...AND DRY               
CONDITIONS REGIONALLY AND UPSTREAM. BROAD RIDGING OVER THE W                    
U.S. RESULTING IN THIS. 12Z UPPER AIR RUN SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS                
ALSO ACROSS THE AREA.                                                           
RUC MODEL SHOWING CONTINUANCE IN CWA/S WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH                  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST MAX SOUNDING TEMPERATURES "RIGHT IN               
LINE" WITH FORECASTED HIGH AT BNA. LAMP GUIDANCE VALUES ALSO "RIGHT             
IN LINE" WITH REGIONAL FORECASTED HIGHS.                                        
AS A RESULT...SEE NO NEED TO UPDATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.                      
$$                                                                              
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
940 AM MST THU APR 26 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.  SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER                  
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON                    
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. A               
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES            
THIS WEEKEND...PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND                
MONDAY.                                                                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK UPR LVL TROF WELL S AND E OF US THIS MORNING WITH ERN PACIFIC              
TROUGH JUST OFFHSORE AT 12Z. 500MB FLOW WAS STILL VERY SLUGGISH                 
ACROSS ALL OF AZ WITH STRONGER SW FLOW OVER CA. IN FACT HGT FALLS               
WERE IN THE 30 TO 60M RANGE OUT WEST AND BEGINNING TO FALL ACROSS               
SERN AZ.  I PUT THE CENTER OF THE UPR HIGH JUST SW OF  ABQ...VERY               
CLOSE TO THE 12HR EXPECTED POSITIONS. MSTR AND TEMP PROFILES WERE               
ALSO ABOUT AS EXPECTED WITH SUF MSTR AND GOOD LAPSE RATES FOR AT                
LEAST AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF ZONE 24/28SFC               
DEW POINTS ALSO HAVE INCHED UPWARD...TO 45 TO 50F...RESULTING FROM              
LAST NIGHTS OUTFLOWS. LATEST GOES P-WTR DATA NOW HAS A  .75  INCH               
MAX ABOUT OVER TUCSON.                                                          
CURRENT FORECASTS WHICH MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON                   
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (ZONES 28              
AND 24) TODAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK OK. RUC PUMPS UP THE  NM HIGH               
JUST A BIT TODAY WHILE IT ALSO SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION FAR TO              
SOUTHEAST WITH A MAX ALONG THE MTNS OF NRN MEXICO. ALSO NOTED IS                
TROFFING LITTLE DEEPER OVER CALIFORNIA WITH SOME SHWRS/TSTMS IN NV.             
TEMP-WISE WE OUGHT TO STAY IN THAT  UPR 90S TO NEAR 100 RANGE WITH              
JUST A HINT OF COOLING ...  NOT AS HOT ... FOR FRI.  MOS SHOWS A LTL            
DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH A 3-DAY PLATEAU IN MAX TEMPS.  SIPPLE                   
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
400 PM EDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL                     
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE...THE LATEST                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER JAMES BAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL UP            
AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL               
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO SCATTERED                 
-SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN                 
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF THIS                
PRECIP EXITING THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING             
TREND IN THE EXTENDED.                                                          
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS BY                
SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US...WITH              
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.                            
TONIGHT...THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC ARE SHOW THE COLD FRONT                   
PASSING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z AND THEN                   
EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AROUND 03Z. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER                
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES. PER                
COORDINATION WITH DTX...I HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A MENTION OF ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.                    
ALTHOUGH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY (SFC-700MB             
LAYER NEARLY ISOTHERMAL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE                     
30S)...700-500MB LAPSE RATES DO APPROACH 7C/KM AROUND FROPA. SKIES              
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO CLEAR FOLLOWING FROPA (AS INDICATED ON THE                
SATELLITE LOOPS) AS 1000-500MB RH QUICKLY DROPS TO 30 PCT. THERE IS             
SOME CIRRUS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SATELLITE TRENDS              
SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.                
THEREFORE I HAVE WORDED THE ZONES AS BECOMING CLEAR FOLLOWING FROPA.            
WITH SOME SHALLOW COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL                         
BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVERNIGHT (IN LINE WITH                 
CURRENT GUIDANCE).                                                              
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYS ACROSS              
THE CENTRAL US...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE                   
FORECAST AREA FROM CANADA. 1000-500MB MEAN RH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN              
AROUND 30 PCT. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING DRY AIR TO THE                         
SURFACE...THUS I DO NOT EXPECT ANY CU FORMATION (VIRTUALLY NO CU                
HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA). IT SHOULD BE AN              
ALL OUT SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY RISE INTO THE 50S ACROSS            
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS AN 850MB THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE                    
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ON ETA MODEL               
SOUNDINGS APPROACHING 800MB...MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S            
(WITH A FEW ISOLATED 60S) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL MIXING              
WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR TO THE SURFACE (SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL TO            
THE LOWER 20S AND TEENS). THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MIN TEMPS                
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.             
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. I              
DROPPED TEMPS FROM CURRENT GUIDANCE VALUES (KEEPING THEM IN THE 20S             
THOUGH). HOWEVER...I CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW TEENS IN LOW LYING                  
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US             
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH                   
PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING                         
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE              
THE START OF A WARMING TREND AS 850MB TEMPS WARM TO +8 ACROSS THE               
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z. ETA 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME            
GOOD ASCENT WORKING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROPPING TO AROUND              
50 MB...LEADING TO SOME MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. I WILL                 
THEREFORE MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE            
WESTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 850-700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION              
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED            
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE...THUS WE             
SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE (MIN TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 40).                     
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A SUBSTANTIAL             
WARMING TREND BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT                
WEEK. THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE THE RESULT OF AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN            
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A                 
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED OVER THE            
EASTERN US WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW/WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM TO AROUND               
+12C ON BOTH THE MRF AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE              
70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A               
LITTLE AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE               
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FRONT IS               
PROGGED TO WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE                 
RIDGE THAT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN US. SINCE THE EXTENDED MODELS               
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FRONT UNDERGOING FRONTOLOSIS AS IT              
ENCOUNTERS THE FORECAST AREA...AND SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING              
GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...I FEEL THAT THE CHANCES OF PRECIP ON              
MONDAY ARE STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE EXTENDED. BY                         
TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AMPLIFYS AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WITH A                   
CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...MAINTAINING THE UNSEASONABLY             
WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE               
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN US...A                
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                  
VALLEY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT             
THAN THE MRF. MRF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HOWEVER DO NOT BRING THE             
FRONT INTO CENTRAL UPPER/EASTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. I            
WILL THEREFORE BRING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THURSDAY                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN UP (CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT).                      
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
COORDINATED WITH DTX AND MQT.                                                   
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
216 PM CDT THU APR 26 2001                                                      
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CLOUD COVER AND ANY POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT                    
MORNING...TEMPS                                                                 
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING CLR SKIES CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE                
MID STATE...AN MOST OF THE SE U.S. MSAS/HAND SFC DEPICTIONS SHOWING             
RIDGE APEX CENTERED THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO                 
UPPER 60S...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS 20 TO 30 DEGREES...WITH LIGHT AND              
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS. RUC ILLUSTRATING DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW                 
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...AS RIDGING ACROSS THE W U.S.                     
AMPLIFIES.                                                                      
12Z THU REGIONAL MODEL RUNS THROUGH 12Z SUN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...                
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. ALL MODELS ALSO INITIALIZE WELL...              
WITH NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...ETA BEST INITIALIZED WITH                  
CURRENT SFC HIGH STRENGTH. WILL THUS LEAN TOWARD THE ETA                        
SOLUTION.                                                                       
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE "WEATHER                 
MAXER" THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE W U.S.               
WILL MOVE E AND CONTINUE AMPLIFYING...WITH ITS APEX OVER THE                    
AREA BY 12Z SAT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE                  
U.S...WITH A COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE                 
GREAT LAKES ON FRI. THIS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL CAUSE THE               
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE                     
SYSTEM AND THE ONE ACROSS THE SE U.S. AFFECTING THIS REGION.                    
THIS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO THE REGION               
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER 06Z SAT...AND THEN BE POSITIONED NWD-SEWD            
ACROSS THE MID STATE BY 12Z SAT. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME INCREASING                 
CLOUDINESS ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE NIGHT FRI                 
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SAT...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE PCPN DEVELOPMENT             
WILL OCCUR. FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT AS SAT PROGRESSES WITH AFTERNOON              
DECREASING CLOUDINESS.                                                          
OTHERWISE...SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN CLR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH             
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS ON FRI AS                
FRONT APPROACHES.                                                               
EXTENDED...SFC AND UPPER RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL MOVE E OF AREA AND             
BROADEN...WITH APEX INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL              
RESULT IN A CONTINUE OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.                 
ANOTHER AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION              
ON WED...WITH SFC RIDGING SLIDING TO THE E...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN              
IN GULF MOISTURE BY THU. WILL LEAVE THU DRY FOR NOW...AND WAIT FOR              
LATER MODEL RUNS FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION OF ANY RAINFALL                      
ACTIVITY.                                                                       
TEMPS....WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IN STORE...WILL                    
UNDERCUT MOS VALUES FOR LOWS A FEW DEGREES. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE           
MOS/ETA BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP SCHEME SOLUTION FOR HIGH/LOW VALUES REST            
OF PERIOD.                                                                      
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA 047/082/052/079 0000                                                        
CSV 040/077/047/073 0000                                                        
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn