AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
903 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
HAD TO MAKE A FEW UPDATES THIS EVENING. FIRST ONE WAS TO REMOVE                 
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOOKED LIKE THINGS MAY GO EARLIER             
TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DOWN TOWARD OUR/DDC CWA. HOWEVER...CAP HELD             
SO NOTHING DEVELOPED. REMOVED POPS ACCORDINGLY.                                 
SECOND PARAMETER IS THE WINDS. AS DRYLINE RETREATED RAPIDLY TOWARD              
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...DEWPOINTS INCREASED RAPIDLY AND WINDY              
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPED. LATEST FSL RUCII INDICATES BREEZY CONDITIONS             
TO CONTINUE OVER THE COLORADO COUNTIES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS OVER               
THE REMAINING CWA. WILL ALERT MID SHIFT FORECASTER TO CHANCE THAT               
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED ON WEDNESDAY.                               
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BUSY DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG THE INCOMING FRONTAL              
BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A HIGH PROBABILITY ACROSS                   
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STAY TUNED.                                               
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
THEDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
735 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
AFD: SENT EARLY WITH AN EXPECTED UPDATED AFD LATER THIS EVENING.                
CLIBDL FOR JUN 17. ERRORONEOUS RECORD LOW FOR JUN 17 AT BDL DID                 
NOT OCCUR. PARTIAL CORRECTIONS TO THE DATABASE OCCURRED WITH THE                
REISSUE AT 727PM. COMPLETE DATABASE CORRECTIONS SHUD SHOW UP                    
EITHER WITH THE 830 PM CLI FOR TODAY OR THE EARLY WED 6/19 ISSUANCE.            
THE LOW YDY AT BDL WAS 50...NOT 35.                                             
OTRW...OVERALL FCST CONTS AS PER AFTN PKG OF 210 PM WITH LOCAL                  
OVERNIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.                                                          
18Z/17 ETA/AVN-GFS...IN OUR CWA THE FOCUS OF THE INSTAB INDICES IS              
HFD/HAMPDEN COUNTY. THERE IS A PREDICTED SEDATING ISOTHERMAL LAYER NR           
680MB THAT MAY CAP CONVECTION TO CLUSTERS OF RW+ BUT THE CONV TEMP OF           
76/77 SHUD HAPPEN ARD 16Z. ETA SFC TEMPS HAVE 79 IN HFD...ADD A TAD             
OF SS AND SHUD REACH THE 12Z/17 NGM MOS VALUE OF 82F PREDICTED THERE            
FOR WED.                                                                        
OROGRAPHY AND CNV ZONE NR SEA BRZ CUD HELP ORGANIZE DEEPR CONVECTION.           
BEST TIME FOR AVBL PARMS APPEARS TO ME IN HFD COUNTY WITH SHWRS/POSS            
TSTMS ONGOING ARD NOON. TT AND KI SPIKE THERE ROUGHLY 21-23Z AT 35              
ANBD 54 RESPECTIVELY ON THE ETA AND EVEN AVN HAS TT NR 50. SBLI                 
WILL BE LOWER THAN IT WAS TDY...NR -6 VS TDYS -4 AS WILL 100 MB LI              
-3 VS +1. SO TOMORROW PROBABLY DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY FM TDY NR HFD-CEF           
AND MUCH FASTER THAN YDY.                                                       
AXIS OF BEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO B OVR INTERIOR CT WITH AN ENE                
EXTENSION TO THE MA PIKE AND FROM NORFOLK CTY AND N BRISTOL COUNTIES            
W ACRS N RI. MODEL FOCUS APPEARS TO B HFD COUNTY WSWD.                          
SMALL HAIL: WITH VILS POSSIBLE TO ~30 (EL NR 30 AND WBZ NR 9K)...               
            SMALL HAIL POSS AND EARLY SHOW OF TSTMS EXPECTED.  RFALL            
            FROM SLOW MVG ERRATICLY MVG POSSIBLY SSE TO SSW CELLS               
            CUD B LOCALLY NR 1" IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS AS PW IS NR                
            1.1". CAPE IS FCST TO BE 2 OR 3X GREATER THAN TDY.                  
KBOX BACKUP FOR NEW INSTALL IS POSTPONED FOR WED.                               
KBOX BEGINNING OF 5 DAY DETAILED MARINE FCST SIMILAR TO MPC...IS                
DELAYED TIL JULY 1.                                                             
DRAG/MCJ                                                                        
---                                                                             
SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED):  AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH            
HAPPENING UPSTREAM...NEAREST LTG IS OVR SRN PA.  SAT PIX SHOW CU                
FIELD INCRSG INVOF CATSKILLS AND NRN PA...AND THIS IS AREA TO WATCH             
THRU LATE AFTN FOR ANY CNVTCV DVLPMNT.  BOTH ETA/RUC CONT PREV                  
TRENDS WITH INCRSG TT (L50S)...TQ (L20S) AND CAPE (500-1000) BUT K              
INDICES ARE LWR THAN YDA.  15Z RUC HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FM ITS               
ERLR FCSTS BUT STILL SHOWS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CT AND MERR VLYS               
THRU ERLY EVE.  AM GOING TO MAKE FINAL DECISION FOR EVE ACTVTY BASED            
UPON 18Z RUC...BUT AM PLANNING TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME MNTN OF PCPN              
ACRS INTERIOR ZNS ERLY.                                                         
MDLS ARE NOW MORE INSISTENT ON PCPN WED...AND IN FACT POTL FOR CNVTCN           
IS GREATER THAN TDA ON BOTH AVN/ETA.  SOME TIMING DIFFS BTWN MDLS               
WITH AVN BRINGING IN PCPN DURG MRNG...ETA HOLDG OFF TIL AFTN.  ALTHO            
GRAD IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT WEAK BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVR SRN NEW            
ENG WHICH SHUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CNVTCN...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC              
LIFT.  CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHWRS ERLY (SPCLY W) PER AVN SO WL BRING             
CHC POPS IN WED MRNG W AND BY AFTN E.  XPCT TO SEE MOST OF ACTVTY FM            
AFTN INTO EVE WITH POTL FOR ISOLD SVR AS WET BULB ZERO REMAINS 7-8KFT           
WITH EL 20-25KFT.                                                               
NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST.                                                    
MID TERM (WED NGT-SAT):  PATTN FINALLY QUIETS DOWN AS WEAK SFC BNDRY            
WASHES OUT AND SFC HI OFF COAST DOMINATES.  LL FLO GRDLY TURNS SW               
BY FRI WHICH WL FINALLY GIVE US THE LONG-AWAITED WARMUP.  NXT CDFNT             
COMING OUT OF GRTLKS FRI AFTN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO SAT...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MNTN OF PCPN TIL SAT AFTN OR SAT NGT.                
RESTRICTED POPS TO RUFFLY MASS PIKE NWD WHERE BETTER LL CONV AND                
UPR SUPPORT PROGGED.                                                            
LONG TERM (SUN-TUE):  STAYING CLOSE TO 00Z/18 OPAVN WHICH KEEPS                 
CLOSED UPR LO FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ITS EFFECTS AWAY FM FA...THERE IS              
ALSO GOOD AGRMNT AMONG MAJORITY OF MED RANGE MDLS WITH THIS FEATURE.            
STG UPR RDG CENTERED OVR WV SUN MRNG SLWLY BLDS S BY DAY 7...PUTTING            
NERN STATES ON TOP OF RDG AND ALLOWING NRN STREAM TO DOMINATE.                  
PLANNING ON CARRYING CHC POPS SUN NGT AS CDFNT EXITS COAST...THEN               
AGAIN MON NGT/TUE AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS AND WMFNT BECOMES                
QSTNRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLO.  MEX TMPS                
CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT CUT BACK A FEW DEGS GIVEN XPCTD CLD CVR.            
BYD DAY 7...AVN KEEPS BNDRY IN PLACE MEANING AT LEAST DIURNAL                   
CNVTCN LOOKS PROBABLE THRU MUCH OF NXT WEEK...BEFORE FNT BACKDOORS              
LATE IN WEEK WITH LARGE SFC HI OVR MARITIMES.                                   
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED):  AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE BUT SO FAR NOT MUCH            
HAPPENING UPSTREAM...NEAREST LTG IS OVR SRN PA.  SAT PIX SHOW CU                
FIELD INCRSG INVOF CATSKILLS AND NRN PA...AND THIS IS AREA TO WATCH             
THRU LATE AFTN FOR ANY CNVTCV DVLPMNT.  BOTH ETA/RUC CONT PREV                  
TRENDS WITH INCRSG TT (L50S)...TQ (L20S) AND CAPE (500-1000) BUT K              
INDICES ARE LWR THAN YDA.  15Z RUC HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FM ITS               
ERLR FCSTS BUT STILL SHOWS SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS ACRS CT AND MERR VLYS               
THRU ERLY EVE.  AM GOING TO MAKE FINAL DECISION FOR EVE ACTVTY BASED            
UPON 18Z RUC...BUT AM PLANNING TO CARRY AT LEAST SOME MNTN OF PCPN              
ACRS INTERIOR ZNS ERLY.                                                         
MDLS ARE NOW MORE INSISTENT ON PCPN WED...AND IN FACT POTL FOR CNVTCN           
IS GREATER THAN TDA ON BOTH AVN/ETA.  SOME TIMING DIFFS BTWN MDLS               
WITH AVN BRINGING IN PCPN DURG MRNG...ETA HOLDG OFF TIL AFTN.  ALTHO            
GRAD IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT WEAK BNDRY REMAINS DRAPED OVR SRN NEW            
ENG WHICH SHUD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CNVTCN...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC              
LIFT.  CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHWRS ERLY (SPCLY W) PER AVN SO WL BRING             
CHC POPS IN WED MRNG W AND BY AFTN E.  XPCT TO SEE MOST OF ACTVTY FM            
AFTN INTO EVE WITH POTL FOR ISOLD SVR AS WET BULB ZERO REMAINS 7-8KFT           
WITH EL 20-25KFT.                                                               
NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST.                                                    
MID TERM (WED NGT-SAT):  PATTN FINALLY QUIETS DOWN AS WEAK SFC BNDRY            
WASHES OUT AND SFC HI OFF COAST DOMINATES.  LL FLO GRDLY TURNS SW               
BY FRI WHICH WL FINALLY GIVE US THE LONG-AWAITED WARMUP.  NXT CDFNT             
COMING OUT OF GRTLKS FRI AFTN BECOMES PARALLEL TO UPR FLO SAT...SO              
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY MNTN OF PCPN TIL SAT AFTN OR SAT NGT.                
RESTRICTED POPS TO RUFFLY MASS PIKE NWD WHERE BETTER LL CONV AND                
UPR SUPPORT PROGGED.                                                            
LONG TERM (SUN-TUE):  STAYING CLOSE TO 00Z/18 OPAVN WHICH KEEPS                 
CLOSED UPR LO FAR ENUF S TO KEEP ITS EFFECTS AWAY FM FA...THERE IS              
ALSO GOOD AGRMNT AMONG MAJORITY OF MED RANGE MDLS WITH THIS FEATURE.            
STG UPR RDG CENTERED OVR WV SUN MRNG SLWLY BLDS S BY DAY 7...PUTTING            
NERN STATES ON TOP OF RDG AND ALLOWING NRN STREAM TO DOMINATE.                  
PLANNING ON CARRYING CHC POPS SUN NGT AS CDFNT EXITS COAST...THEN               
AGAIN MON NGT/TUE AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS AND WMFNT BECOMES                
QSTNRY OVR SRN NEW ENG AS IT BCMS PARALLEL TO UPR FLO.  MEX TMPS                
CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT CUT BACK A FEW DEGS GIVEN XPCTD CLD CVR.            
BYD DAY 7...AVN KEEPS BNDRY IN PLACE MEANING AT LEAST DIURNAL                   
CNVTCN LOOKS PROBABLE THRU MUCH OF NXT WEEK...BEFORE FNT BACKDOORS              
LATE IN WEEK WITH LARGE SFC HI OVR MARITIMES.                                   
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
FCST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS POTENTIAL OF SHRA REACHING THE WRN FA.                
WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING E TWD CNTRL              
MT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE RIDING ENE               
THRU NCNTRL PLAINS/SCNTRL CANADA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WRN LAKES             
TO NW QUEBEC WHILE TROF IS VERY SLOWLY LIFTING FROM THE ERN                     
LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU SRN MANITOBA HAS TRIGGERED             
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO NW MN. FARTHER S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE             
WAS APPROACHING SW MN.                                                          
18Z AVN KEYS ON THE SW MN SHORTWAVE TONIGHT...SPINNING IT UP                    
CONVECTIVELY AND BRINGING A BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES OF RAIN INTO            
SW UPPER MI WED MORNING...SUSPICIOUS TO SAY THE LEAST. 18Z ETA/00Z              
RUC DO NOT SHOW THIS AND ARE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS. DESPITE                   
CLOSENESS OF SHRA UPSTREAM...LOOKS LIKE GOING DRY FCST SHOULD HOLD              
THRU NIGHT. SFC OBS SHOW A DRY SERLY FLOW INTO UPPER MI WHILE 00Z               
RAOBS AND PROFILER TRENDS SHOW MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO             
DAKOTAS/MN ON SRLY FLOW. RATHER TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE              
REGION WITH 00Z KGRB SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.76 INCHES WHILE               
KINL/KMPX ARE ABOUT DOUBLE THAT WITH AROUND 1.4 INCHES. 00Z KGRB                
SOUNDING DEPICTS A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT                      
LOW-LEVELS AS WELL. EFFECTS OF THIS DRIER AIR ARE EVIDENT AS LEADING            
ECHOES ON KDLH/KMPX RADARS HAVE FAILED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN            
AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE PER SFC OBS...AND CLOUD BASES WITH THE ECHOES            
ARE ABOVE 10KFT. BELIEVE THIS TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD UP              
DURING THE NIGHT AS MORE OF A SERLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS PERSISTS INTO            
UPPER MI WITH SFC PRESSURES RISING TO THE E PER RECENT PRESSURE                 
TENDENCY TRENDS AND MODEL FCST. THIS DUE TO HEIGHTS RISING IN NEARLY            
STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND OVER FA PER RUC ANALYSIS AND ETA/RUC            
FCST. ALL THIS SUGGESTS UPSTREAM SHRA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING            
FA...THOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. MIN TEMPS ARE IN GOOD                      
SHAPE...BUT MAY NEED TO CUT A FEW DEGREES IN THE KEWEENAW ZONE AS               
KCMX AT 56 ALREADY.                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW A RDG OVR THE GRT LKS (12            
HR H3 HGT RISES AOA 100M WITH SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H8) BTWN A                  
FILLING TROF OVR THE E AND A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF MOVG THRU THE PAC             
NW. THIS SHRTWV ACCOMPANIED BY 100KT H3 JET MAX AND 12 HR H3 HGT                
FALLS AOA 150M. SFC HI PRES/DRY AIR (12Z PWAT ARND 0.60 INCH AT                 
INL/GRB) UNDER THE UPR RDG BRINGING A TRANQUIL WX DAY TO CWA...WITH             
DRY SELY TRAJECTORIES NOTED ACRS THE NW GRT LKS OUT OF HI CENTER OVR            
LK HURON. BUT HIGHER MSTR LURKING TO THE SW...WITH PWATS AOA 1 INCH             
FM BIS TO MPX. TSRA NOTED IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS...THE STRONGEST ONE             
IN MT AND ANOTHER IN ND...SHOOTING OUT OF MAIN TROF IN THE PAC NW AS            
THEY INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTER AIR.                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TIMING THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE            
OF CNVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH PAC NW SHRTWV.                                        
PRES GRADIENT PROGGED TO SHARPEN TNGT AS ADVANCING SHRTWVS CAUSES               
LWRG PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS WHILE MORE TENACIOUS RDG HANGS IN OVR              
THE NE CONUS UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE LKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS                
MOVG IN FM THE W. LEADING SMLR SCALE SHRTWVS PROGGED TO LIFT MORE NE            
INTO CAN IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HTS FARTHER W AND BLDG RDG IN THE               
LKS...WITH MODELS INDICATING NO IMPACT FM THESE ADVANCE SHRTWVS ON              
WX OVR CWA. FCST LLVL WNDS/TRAJECTORIES REMAIN OUT OF THE SSE THRU              
12Z WED...SO THINK DRY AIR WL HOLD ITS GROUND TNGT UNDER RISING                 
HGTS. SINCE NO MODEL...EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ETA AT MOISTENING               
THE LLVLS...GENERATES QPF IN THE CWA TNGT...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE                
MENTION OF PCPN ACRS THE FAR W. BEST CHCS FOR TSRA DVLPMNT WL BE                
MUCH FARTHER S CLOSER TO H85 WARM FNT IN NE IA/SE MN/SW WI...WHICH              
WOULD ACT TO INTERCEPT MSTR FLOWING TOWARD CWA. DEBRIS CLD FM                   
UPSTREAM CNVCTN WL IMPACT WI BORDER/WRN ZNS...BUT SKIES WL BE MCLR              
FARTHER E. ALTHOUGH FLOW OF DRIER AIR WL CONT IN THE LLVLS...INCRSG             
WNDS WL HOLD TEMPS MUCH HIER THAN LAST NGT MINS. THE IMPACT WL BE               
GREATEST ACRS THE W...WHERE THE PRES GRADEINT WL BE SHARPER ALL NGT             
(ETA DEPICTS 45KT WND AS LO AS 2K FT AGL AT IWD OVRNGT) AND PWAT/UPR            
LVL MSTR INCRSES EARLIER. MOS MINS LOOK RSNBL...BUT WL TEND TO                  
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES OVR THE E SINCE DWPTS ARE SO LO (37 AT SAW            
AT 19Z).                                                                        
AVN BRUSHES SRN TIER ZNS WITH REMNANT PCPN FM MCS IT DVLPS ALG WARM             
FNT TO THE S TNGT...BUT THINK AVN SUFFERING FM USUAL CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK PROBLEM AND TOO STRG WITH SHRTWV/H4-2 DVGC IT PROGS TO MOVE            
ACRS NRN WI/SRN TIER CWA ON WED MRNG. BUT DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN WL BE            
MOST PREVALENT ACRS THE S AND W. ALTHOUGH ETA/NGM GENERATE QPF OVR              
THE WRN HALF OF CWA IN THE AFTN...IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY BNDRY UNDER             
ACYC H85 FLOW/SUPPRESSED LK BREEZES...RISING H5 HGTS/TEMPS (TO -8C              
AT IWD BY 18Z) AND WITH MORE OF A DUE S SFC FLOW...THINK DAY WL BE              
DRY PER CNDN MODEL FCST...SO POPS UNDER GUIDANCE FCST. ETA AS USUAL             
APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING SFC DWPT TOWARD 67 AT IWD BY                  
AFTN...ITS MODIFIED SDNG FOR TD OF 60 PER AVN GUIDANCE AT 18Z SHOWS             
CAPE/CIN DCRSG FM 670/-30 J/KG TO 150/-30 J/KG EVEN FOR TEMP UP TO              
80. DEBRIS CLD FM CNVCTN TO THE SW WL LIMIT INSOLATION A BIT AND                
HOLD DOWN MAX TEMP/CAPE AS WELL. AVN GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS             
TOO INFLUENCED BY ITS FCST MRNG CNVCTN/THICKER DEBRIS CLD. FWC                  
GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. XPCT BREEZY CONDITIONS AS INSOLATION             
MIXES STRG GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SFC.                                            
TMRW NGT...MAIN SHRTWV LIFTS NE INTO ONTARIO ON WRN FLANK OF UPR RDG            
AXIS OVR ERN LKS...DRAGGING SFC FNT INTO THE WRN ZNS BY 12Z. ALL BUT            
CNDN MODEL GENERATE SOME QPF OVR CWA WED NGT...ALBEIT LGT. THINK                
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...FCST PWATS OVR 1.5 INCH...AND                  
ARRIVAL OF SFC BNDRY WARRANTS INCLUSION OF POPS EVERYWHERE...HIEST              
OVR THE FAR W CLOSEST TO BNDRY. BUT LIFTING OF SHRTWV/DEEPEST MSTR              
INTO CAN WITH NEGLIGIBLE FALL OF H5 HGT/TEMP OVR CWA WOULD SUG CHCY             
POPS AND NO HIER. SPC OUTLOOK HAS WRN ZNS IN SLGT RISK AREA...BUT               
LINGERING HI MID LVL TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF STRG DYNAMICS A MAJOR                  
LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE STRG H85 WNDS. TGT GRADIENT SWLY FLOW/MIXING            
AND HIER PWAT INDICATE MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO HIER NGM/ETA MOS GUIDANCE            
IN ORDER.                                                                       
WEAKENING SFC FNT WITH LOSS OF UPR DYNAMICS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIMP              
ACRS CWA ON THU AS WSWLY UPR FLOW BCMS MORE PARALLEL TO BNDRY ON WRN            
PERIPHERY OF RDG. AVN THE SLOWEST MODEL TO PUSH DRYING INTO THE W ON            
THU WITH WHAT APPEARS AS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SHRTWV RIDES NE ALG                
BNDRY AND INVIGORATES QPF ALG BNDRY. WL TEND TOWARD THE MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE DRYING OF THE ETA GIVEN THE AVN'S PROBLEM WITH CONVECTIVE            
FEEDBACK...THE CNDN MODEL APPEARS RSNBL AS A COMPROMISE CLOSER TO               
THE ETA. WL DRY OUT THE W THU AFTN...BUT KEEP POPS ALL THU NGT ACRS             
THE E. THEN DRY EVERYWHERE ON FRI WITH SFC HI FCST TO BLD OVR THE NW            
GRT LKS BEHIND DISSOLVING FNT.                                                  
EXTENDED MODELS CONT TO ADVERTISE TREND TOWARD MORE SUMMERLIKE                  
PATTERN WITH WELL ABV NORMAL H5 HGTS FCST ACRS ESPECIALLY ERN                   
NAMERICA. WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACRS               
CAN AND TO N OF MEAN RDG/WARMEST AIR IN THE CNTRL CONUS...SOME                  
ACTIVE TSRA WX PSBL. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF               
SHRTWV PASSING TO N ON SAT...SO FCST SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON THAT DAY                 
LOOKS ON TARGET. ECMWF/UKMET LOOK MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING/BLDG              
HI PRES OVR THE NW LKS ON SUN...BUT OPERATIONAL MRF/CNDN DEPICT A               
BNDRY IN VCNTY ALL DAY WITH SLOWER SHRTWV PROGRESSION. MRF/CNDN                 
ENSEMBLES OFFER LTL RESOLUTION... SO WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST                     
SHRA/TSRA CHCS ON SUN. OPERATIONAL MRF KEEPS BNDRY ARND ON MON...               
BUT SINCE MAJORITY OF MRF/CNDN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF HINT AT               
DRYING AND COOLING ON MON...WL CONT DRY FCST THEN. OUTLOOK FOR TUE              
IS UNCLEAR...BUT WITH CWA ON SRN FLANK OF ACTIVE UPR JET TO THE N...            
WL GO WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA THEN. TEMPS THRU EXTENDED PD GENERALLY AOA             
MOS FCST...XCPT FOR MON WHEN TEMPS GENERALLY BLO MOS GUIDANCE.                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1104 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN                 
GREAT LAKES...WITH DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. ONE                 
LINGERING VORT CENTRAL NEAR SAGINAW BAY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH.             
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH             
A WEAK HIGH OVER LAKE HURON. VISIBLE SATELLITE/METARS INDICATE A                
BAND OF MID CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO OHIO NEAR THE               
WEAK BOUNDARY...ACC ON SATELLITE AND AS REPORTED BY OBSERVERS AT                
LAN/MBS/YQG/YZR.                                                                
COLD POOL CONTINUES TO PULL EAST AS HEIGHTS BUILD WITH THE                      
APPROACHING RIDGE...WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING 500MB/700MB TEMPERATURES            
CLIMBING 4C/3C RESPECTIVELY. 850-500MB LAPSE RATES STILL UP NEAR                
6.5C/KM...DESPITE CAP DEVELOPING NEAR 700MB...WHICH DROPS 700-500MB             
LAPSE RATES TO 5C/KM. UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM GRB LOOKS                          
REPRESENTATIVE FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. MODIFIED FOR T/TD OF            
75/52 YIELDS A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...NOT MUCH COMPARED TO             
THE 1500 J/KG FROM A MODIFIED DTX SOUNDING. DESPITE THE SCATTERED               
NATURE OF THE MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...RUC/ETA STILL                
POINTING TO 700MB RH OVER 70 PERCENT. CU EXPECTED WITH MOISTURE AND             
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.              
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH...              
WHICH MAY BE A CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON. RUC/ETA INDICATE 925MB                
CONVERGENCE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL ETA-6            
AND ETA-XX BOTH PRINT OUT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEND             
TO THINK THIS IS OVERDONE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT            
IS ONGOING. WILL HOLD ON TO THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH               
WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PRECIP CHANCES.                                 
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
BRAVENDER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
915 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY                  
MOVING INTO WRN MT WITH A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER WRN MN.              
IN THE LOW LEVELS, THE PRIMARY MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDED FROM WRN TX               
THRU ERN NEB AND INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS.  THUS FAR, CONVECTION HAS                
BEEN CONFINED TO SERN MT AND MN ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE CAP (REF.             
19/00Z PLAINS SOUNDINGS) IN ZONES OF ENHANCED SYNOPTIC ASCENT.                  
THIS UPPER AIR DATA AND 19/00Z RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY             
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN TO            
THE N OF OUR CWFA, AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING MT                
SHORTWAVE.  THEREFORE, WE WILL LIKELY REMOVE THE POPS ACROSS OUR                
CNTRL ZONES AND ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE N.  OTHERWISE,              
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME MINOR               
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.                                                               
AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.                                   
MEAD                                                                            
--300 PM CDT ISSUANCE--                                                         
FCST CHALLENGE RMNS CONVECTION CHCS/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TNGT...              
MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN HOW FAR S CDFNT WILL PUSH LATE WED                   
NGT/THU.  MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FNTL PSN INTO WED AFTN AND A            
BLEND WAS USED.  AVN AND ETA CONTD THEIR RESPECTIVE TRENDS W/FRONT              
ON THU.  AVN CONTD TO PUSH IT S THRU FCST AREA WHILE ETA MOVED IT               
TWD SRN ZONES THEN STALLED IT OR EVEN MOVED IT N A LTL.  SINCE FNT              
WL BE MOVG S INTO RISING 500 MB HGTS...IN FACT ETA/AVN BOTH BUILD               
5940 M HGT INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z FRI...WL LEAN A LTL MORE TWD ETA               
THU.                                                                            
SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE SITUATION CONTS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND THE              
QUESTION RMNS WHETHER CAP WL BREAK IN FCST AREA.  FCST SOUNDING FM              
ETA BUFKIT SHOWED CAP ERODING AT OFK AND OMA 19Z-21Z.  WARMING MID              
LVL TEMPS THEN BROUGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BACK TO OMA BY 00Z                 
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASED FAST ENOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS TO KEEP LTL             
OR NO CIN AT OFK.  BASED ON THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS NRN            
ZONES.  HOWEVER...LATEST LAPS SHOWED A MUCH HIGHER CIN AT 19Z THAN              
12Z ETA OR EVEN THE LATEST RUC FCST.  AND LATEST RUC DIDN'T LOWER               
CIN BLO 40 J/KG UNTIL 00Z-03Z TIME PD BUT THEN DVLPD ITS PCPN N OF              
FCST AREA.  WILL STILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES BECAUSE OF                
THESE TRENDS...BUT WL NOT GO IN LIKELY CAT OR MENTION SVR UNLESS                
CONVECTION WOULD DVLP BFR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.  ALTHO IF STORMS DO               
OCCUR IN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR              
SVR STORMS.  CAP IS FCST TO RMN AT LNK AND THEN EVEN BUILDS TWD 04Z             
SO WL LEAVE SERN NEBR ZONES DRY.  PREV FCST LOWS LOOK GOOD.                     
WINDY AND WARM/HOT CONDS LOOK LIKELY ON WED.  ETA/NGM 850 MB TEMPS              
WOULD EVEN SUPPORT UPR 90S AT LNK AND EVEN OFK IF FNT WOULD HOLD                
OFF.  AVN RMNS THE COOLER MODEL BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SW.              
ACTUALLY ETA MOS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WL ADJ FCST UPWARD TO THESE               
NUMBERS.  FEEL THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION AND LTL CLOUDS AT LEAST              
FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN SO MIXING DOWN 850 MB WINDS SHOULD POSE            
NO PRBLM.  WL MENTION WINDY MOST ZONES...SPCLY SINCE WINDS HAVE EVEN            
REACHED THAT CRITERIA TDA.  WL COUNT ON FRONT REACHING NEAR OFK BY              
LATE AFTN TO CONT AFTN TSTMS CHCS NWRN ZONES.  WL LEAVE ROFA DRY.               
WITH FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO OMA WED NGT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE                   
OUTFLOW...FEEL A BOOST IN POPS IS WARRANTED.  IN FACT WL GO LIKELY              
CATEGORY NWRN ZONES.  EVEN THOUGH FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SERN               
NEBR...WL KEEP SOME MENTION OF STORMS THERE AS A FEW COULD BE                   
GENERATED BY OUTFLOW AHD OF FNT.  THEN ON THU LEANING MORE TWD ETA              
WOULD HOLD THE FRONT NEAR OMAHA.  THUS WL GO MORE WITH ETA MOS S OF             
THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY JUST IN CASE              
FNT DROPS FTHR S THAT EXPECTED.  ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS FAIRLY CLOSE               
NRN ZONES AND WL RAISE TEMPS A LTL TWD THOSE NUMBERS FAR N.                     
BOTH ETA EXTENSION AND AVN LIFT FNT MOSTLY N OF FCST AREA BY FRI                
AFTN.  THUS WL ONLY MENTION MORNING TSTMS N AND RAISE TEMPS A LTL               
ALL AREAS.                                                                      
DAYS 4-7...ON SAT REMOVED SLGT CHC TSTMS AND RAISED TEMPS ALL ZONES             
AS BOTH ECMWF AND AVN FCST UPR RIDGING W/LTL CHC OF PCPN.  BOTH                 
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED SOME WK WAVE PSBLY KNOCKING DOWN UPR HGTS A               
LTL SUN...ALTHO AVN WAS FTHR N...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN WITH SLIGHTLY            
COOLER TEMPS.  MODELS DIVERGED A LTL MON WITH ECMWF HOTTER/DRIER                
THAN AVN WHICH BROUGHT ANOTHER WK FNT THRU.  ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THEN            
TO CHANGE PREV FCST SO LEFT NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ALONE AND CONTD                 
THESE CONDITIONS INTO TUE.                                                      
CHERMOK                                                                         
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE RMNS CONVECTION CHCS/COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TNGT...              
MAINLY THIS EVENING...THEN HOW FAR S CDFNT WILL PUSH LATE WED                   
NGT/THU.  MODELS WERE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH FNTL PSN INTO WED AFTN AND A            
BLEND WAS USED.  AVN AND ETA CONTD THEIR RESPECTIVE TRENDS W/FRONT              
ON THU.  AVN CONTD TO PUSH IT S THRU FCST AREA WHILE ETA MOVED IT               
TWD SRN ZONES THEN STALLED IT OR EVEN MOVED IT N A LTL.  SINCE FNT              
WL BE MOVG S INTO RISING 500 MB HGTS...IN FACT ETA/AVN BOTH BUILD               
5940 M HGT INTO SERN NEBR BY 00Z FRI...WL LEAN A LTL MORE TWD ETA               
THU.                                                                            
SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE SITUATION CONTS THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND THE              
QUESTION RMNS WHETHER CAP WL BREAK IN FCST AREA.  FCST SOUNDING FM              
ETA BUFKIT SHOWED CAP ERODING AT OFK AND OMA 19Z-21Z.  WARMING MID              
LVL TEMPS THEN BROUGHT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BACK TO OMA BY 00Z                 
WHILE MOISTURE INCREASED FAST ENOUGH WITH WARMING TEMPS TO KEEP LTL             
OR NO CIN AT OFK.  BASED ON THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER POPS NRN            
ZONES.  HOWEVER...LATEST LAPS SHOWED A MUCH HIGHER CIN AT 19Z THAN              
12Z ETA OR EVEN THE LATEST RUC FCST.  AND LATEST RUC DIDN'T LOWER               
CIN BLO 40 J/KG UNTIL 00Z-03Z TIME PD BUT THEN DVLPD ITS PCPN N OF              
FCST AREA.  WILL STILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS NRN ZONES BECAUSE OF                
THESE TRENDS...BUT WL NOT GO IN LIKELY CAT OR MENTION SVR UNLESS                
CONVECTION WOULD DVLP BFR ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.  ALTHO IF STORMS DO               
OCCUR IN FCST AREA THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS TO ALLOW FOR              
SVR STORMS.  CAP IS FCST TO RMN AT LNK AND THEN EVEN BUILDS TWD 04Z             
SO WL LEAVE SERN NEBR ZONES DRY.  PREV FCST LOWS LOOK GOOD.                     
WINDY AND WARM/HOT CONDS LOOK LIKELY ON WED.  ETA/NGM 850 MB TEMPS              
WOULD EVEN SUPPORT UPR 90S AT LNK AND EVEN OFK IF FNT WOULD HOLD                
OFF.  AVN RMNS THE COOLER MODEL BUT EVEN IT SUGGESTS LOWER 90S SW.              
ACTUALLY ETA MOS LOOKS REASONABLE AND WL ADJ FCST UPWARD TO THESE               
NUMBERS.  FEEL THERE WILL BE NO CONVECTION AND LTL CLOUDS AT LEAST              
FM MID MORNING THRU MID AFTN SO MIXING DOWN 850 MB WINDS SHOULD POSE            
NO PRBLM.  WL MENTION WINDY MOST ZONES...SPCLY SINCE WINDS HAVE EVEN            
REACHED THAT CRITERIA TDA.  WL COUNT ON FRONT REACHING NEAR OFK BY              
LATE AFTN TO CONT AFTN TSTMS CHCS NWRN ZONES.  WL LEAVE ROFA DRY.               
WITH FRONT PUSHING CLOSE TO OMA WED NGT...AIDED BY CONVECTIVE                   
OUTFLOW...FEEL A BOOST IN POPS IS WARRANTED.  IN FACT WL GO LIKELY              
CATEGORY NWRN ZONES.  EVEN THOUGH FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO SERN               
NEBR...WL KEEP SOME MENTION OF STORMS THERE AS A FEW COULD BE                   
GENERATED BY OUTFLOW AHD OF FNT.  THEN ON THU LEANING MORE TWD ETA              
WOULD HOLD THE FRONT NEAR OMAHA.  THUS WL GO MORE WITH ETA MOS S OF             
THE FRONT WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION...MAINLY JUST IN CASE              
FNT DROPS FTHR S THAT EXPECTED.  ETA/NGM AND AVN MOS FAIRLY CLOSE               
NRN ZONES AND WL RAISE TEMPS A LTL TWD THOSE NUMBERS FAR N.                     
BOTH ETA EXTENSION AND AVN LIFT FNT MOSTLY N OF FCST AREA BY FRI                
AFTN.  THUS WL ONLY MENTION MORNING TSTMS N AND RAISE TEMPS A LTL               
ALL AREAS.                                                                      
DAYS 4-7...ON SAT REMOVED SLGT CHC TSTMS AND RAISED TEMPS ALL ZONES             
AS BOTH ECMWF AND AVN FCST UPR RIDGING W/LTL CHC OF PCPN.  BOTH                 
MODELS ALSO SUGGESTED SOME WK WAVE PSBLY KNOCKING DOWN UPR HGTS A               
LTL SUN...ALTHO AVN WAS FTHR N...SO KEPT SMALL POPS IN WITH SLIGHTLY            
COOLER TEMPS.  MODELS DIVERGED A LTL MON WITH ECMWF HOTTER/DRIER                
THAN AVN WHICH BROUGHT ANOTHER WK FNT THRU.  ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THEN            
TO CHANGE PREV FCST SO LEFT NUMBERS PRETTY MUCH ALONE AND CONTD                 
THESE CONDITIONS INTO TUE.                                                      
.OMA...NONE.                                                                    
CHERMOK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1001 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
WILL UPDATE ZFP TO ADJUST WINDS.                                                
LATEST MESO MODELS AND 18Z RUNS INDICATE COASTAL TROF WILL SHARPEN              
ALONG COAST TONIGHT BUT REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SEVERAL SHORT WVS JUST            
UPSTREAM TO MOVE ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND PLENTY OF ACTIVITY ON                
RADAR UPSTREAM AS WELL. CURRENT FCST IN GOOD SHAPE FOR POPS AND                 
TEMPS BUT WILL ADJUST FOR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS.                            
CWF: LATEST RUC PREFERRED FOR WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED OVERNIGHT                
WITH WINDS BECOMING E-NE OVER MARINE AREA AS TROF SHARPENS OFF                  
COAST.                                                                          
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
JBM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE                                          
1120 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
UPDATE TO UP POPS FROM I-80 SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BE MOVING               
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. RUC PROPAGATES FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PA              
AND BLOWS UP CONVECTION QUITE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TS SHOULD              
BE GARDEN VARIETY AS FCST SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT SEVERE.                       
INCREASED CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-80 AS WELL. KNOCKED DOWN TEMPS A BIT                
WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                       
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
DIRIENZO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY                                             
245 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM CHANCES TONIGHT...AND POSSIBILITY OF            
SVR WX.  UPR LOW MOVG EWD ACRS THE PAC NW ATTM...WITH WATER VAPOR               
DEPICTING JET STREAK ENTERING NRN ROCKIES. BROAD TROF ACRS DAKOTAS              
WITH SOME CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WINDS ACRS THE SD PLAINS FROM EARLY              
MRNG TSTMS.                                                                     
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE CAP GENERALLY S OF I-90 OVR              
WRN SD...AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANCE OF THIS BREAKING THIS EVE. APRCH              
JET STREAK SPARKING MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION NWRN ZONES...BUT DO              
EXPECT THIS TO BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED THIS AFTN/EVE AS CAP IS                
RAPIDLY ERODING IN THIS REGION.  APPROACHING SHORT WAVE LATER THIS              
EVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION THIS AREA...AND STRONG SHEAR/HI LCL'S               
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.  IN A                   
NUTSHELL...EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS NORTH OF I-90              
THIS EVE.                                                                       
SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATER TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH AS STRONG CDFNT            
SWEEPS ACRS REGION...ALLOWING CAP TO BE OVERCOME. PCPN SHOULD COME              
TO AN END DURG THE MRNG AS CDFNT/INSTABILITY MOV E.  WILL HAVE TO               
PUT UP WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDS IN THE AM AS NARROW BAND OF             
5-7MB PRES RISES SPREAD ACRS AREA BEHIND CDFNT...ALTHOUGH OPPOSING              
GEOSTROPHIC/ISALLOBARIC COMPONENTS SHOULD KEEP BLO HIGHLIGHT                    
CRITERIA.                                                                       
OTHER THAN A FEW -SHRA WED AHEAD OF UPPER TROF...LOOKS MOSTLY DRY               
THU WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER TROF.  NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN LATE               
THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS SW FLOW RETURNS AND AVN DEPICTS SEVERAL                   
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. SFC LOW DVLPG ACRS SD ON FRI COULD BRING MORE             
SVR WX TO AREA...AND BEARS WATCHING.                                            
EXTENDED...UNSETTLED PATTERN THRU SUN...THEN DRY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS             
RETURNING REGION TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.                
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY                                             
1000 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
SHORT WAVE/CONVECTION MOVG EAST OF CWFA ATTM. WK SFC TROF EXTENDS               
N-S ACRS CNTRL DAKOTAS. FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS TSTM                         
CHANCES...AND POSSIBILITY OF THEM BCMG SVR.                                     
BEST CAPE TDY ACRS SCNTRL ZONES. HOWEVER...FCST RUC SOUNDINGS                   
INDICATE AFTN CIN AOA 50J/KG.  WITH MINIMAL UPPER LVL                           
FORCING...EXPECT NO MORE THAN ISOLD TSTMS. LESS CAPPING IN PLACE                
ACRS REMAINDER OF ZONES...BUT MINIMAL CAPE AND LACK OF FORCING TO               
INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR ANY                  
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTN MAY ROTATE.                                    
BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS REMAIN THIS EVE/TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG/N OF             
I-90 AS POTENT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.                                           
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZONES MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING                   
WORDING.                                                                        
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
840 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND BRUSH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A              
WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.                    
.DISCUSSION...THE STUBBORN PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW IS FINALLY MOVING              
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT...THE CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE            
IDAHO PANHANDLE AT 01Z PER WV LOOP.  MOST PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM IS            
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF UTAH IN AREAS OF BETTER UPPER SUPPORT.               
HOWEVER...KMTX CURRENTLY PICKING UP LIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY                   
SOUTHWEST OF THE SLC AREA...EXTENDING FROM NE TOOELE COUNTY                     
SOUTHWEST INTO JUAB COUNTY.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT             
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NW UTAH...AND EXTENDS SW INTO SOUTHERN             
NEVADA AND MOVING SE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS              
FROM A FAST MOVING RIPPLE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PAC NW                     
SYSTEM...WHICH MOVED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND IS NOW IN                   
CENTRAL NEVADA.  RUC PICKS THIS UP AS WELL AS HINTS OF IT IN THE                
LATEST MESO 300 MB ISOTACH PROG VALID 03Z.  LATEST GOES DERIVED                 
PRECIP WATER SHOWS A RELATIVE MAX AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW UTAH SW                
INTO NEVADA...ALSO SHOWING A RELATIVE LI MIN IN THE SAME AREA.  NOT             
MUCH HITTING THE GROUND WITH THESE CELLS...MORE LIKELY SOME                     
LIGHTNING...A FEW SPRINKLES AND A LOT OF VIRGA.  VERY LITTLE GOING              
ON IN NORTHERN SECTIONS.  ATMOS LOOKS FAIRLY DRY DOWNSTREAM OF AREA             
IN NORTHERN NEVADA.  WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO ADDRESS ACTIVITY IN                
WEST CENTRAL UTAH AND REMOVE POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT.             
WILL ALSO TWEAK SKY COVER A FEW PLACES.                                         
SLC 1111 CDC ----  JACKSON                                                      
.SLC...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1020 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002                                                     
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE               
VA/MD ZONES AS TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH            
THE REGION. CURRENTLY...THIS SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING THROUGH OH/PA PER            
THE LATEST WV/IR STLT LOOPS. WEAK FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE                   
(DPVA/QS CONVERGENCE)...ALONG WITH THE DIURNAL THERMAL EFFECTS                  
(MOUNTAIN/MARINE LAYER STABILITY OR MESO-HIGHS W AND E WITH                     
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE IN BTWN) WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE TROUGH TO                
LIFT BACK N INTO THE VA COASTAL PLAIN. MARGINAL INSTBY AND OVERALL              
DRY AIRMASS/LOWER INSTBY WILL KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED OVER VA/MD               
THIS AFTN...THUS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE 20% POPS. CAPES IN THIS                
REGION PER MODIFIED KWAL/KLWX SOUNDINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BTWN              
1000-1500 J/KG.                                                                 
WILL ALSO KEEP SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES (30%) OVER NE N CAROLINA...              
GIVEN INCREASED 850-500 MB LIFT FROM A SRN STREAM VORT LOBE LIFTING             
INTO THE CAROLINAS (WHICH OF THE MODELS THE RUC APPEARS TO HAVE A               
BETTER HANDLE ON). INSTBY POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE A             
LITTLE HIGHER GIVEN THE MORE LOW-MID LEVEL MSTR AVAILABILITY                    
(K INDICES INTO THE LOWER 30S). MODIFIED KMHX SOUNDING FOR AN 82/67             
TEMP/DWPT REGIME YIELDS CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LI'S AROUND -6C.               
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THOUGH WILL LIMITED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL               
CLOUD SHIELD ALONG THE UPPER JET AXIS. THIS WILL CUT DOWN ON SURFACE            
BASED HEATING...WHILE LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE                 
MICROBURST POTENTIAL (WBZ HEIGHTS ~11.5 KFT) AS WELL AS MID LEVEL               
LAPSE RATES (5.5 C/KM OR LESS).                                                 
MARINE FCST...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGES.                                            
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
HURLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
215 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
...WET PERIOD CONTINUES WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS INCREASING INTO             
THE WEEKEND...                                                                  
CURRENTLY...METARS INDICATE WEAK INVERTED SFC PRES TROUGH EXTENDING             
FROM NORTH FL NE-WARD ALONG THE SE US COAST. THE ATLC SFC RIDGE HAS             
STRENGTHENED TO THE POINT THAT ALL OF FL (AS WELL AS THE ERN GOMEX              
ADJACENT WRN ATLC AND SE STATES) IS UNDER ESE/SE WIND FLOW. SIMILAR             
TO LAST NIGHT...TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BOTH L70S ALREADY...OWING TO               
THE TUE AFTNN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED MEAN PWATS 2"               
OVER ALL BUT THE SRN PENIN WHERE THEY WERE A COUPLE TENTHS LOWER.               
LOOKING ALOFT...IR TIME LAPSE SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD CI/CS CANOPY OVER            
ALL BUT THE SRN CWA HAS BEEN THINNING THE LAST FEW HRS. WATER VAPOR/            
RUC VORT ANLYS SHOWS ANOTHER MINOR VORT RIPPLE INVOF THE YUCATAN IN             
THE BASE OF THE GOMEX TROF. KMLB 88D SHOWS A FEW SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN            
NEAR LAKE KISM WITH A NARROW "FINGER" OF STRATIFORM RAIN EXTENDING              
NE FROM KPGD TWD THE KISM RIVER...BORNE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM               
STORMS OFFSHORE VENF1. OVERALL THE WHOLE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SEEMS            
TO BE TRYING TO PROPAGATE NWD A BIT. THE T-WAVE NOTED IN LAST NIGHTS            
AFD IS NOW NEAR 75W WITH INCREASING NWD COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT (NRN              
EXTENT APPEARS TO BE ~25-26N BASED ON IR).                                      
TODAY/TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE KEEPS CWA IN DEEP MOISTURE WITH            
SE SFC FLOW/SW MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUING. CWA ALSO REMAINS SQUARELY             
WITHIN THE RR QUAD OF THE H25 JET. MODELS DON'T APPEAR TO BE HANDLING           
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE SW TOO WELL...BUT EXTRAPOLATING             
MOTION ON WATER VAPOR BRINGS IT NNE WITH THE FEATURE GENERATING SOME            
SYNOPTIC UVM ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. NO ARGUING WITH THE              
LIKELY POPS IN THE ZFP FOR TODAY. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL                
LINGER AND THEN "PANCAKE OUT" INTO LIGHT/MOD DEBRIS RAIN (MUCH LIKE             
TUE NIGHT) ACROSS THE CWA. SRN CWA MAY SEE SOME EFFECTS FROM THE NRN            
FRINGE OF THE TWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU AS IT PASSES 80W...AND WE             
MAY WIND UP NEEDING TO TWEAK POPS UP SOME FOR MARTIN/ST LUCIE COS.              
THU/FRI...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE              
SRN END OF THE ERN CONUS TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED H50-H25              
LOW AROUND 18Z THU (THOUGH SHOWING 30-40M HEIGHT DIFFS IN STRENGTH)             
...THEN DRIFTING IT SW OVER THE HEART OF DIXIE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.              
WHILE THIS IS STARTING TO OCCUR EARLY ON...INFUSION OF SOME WEAK LOW            
LEVEL VORTICITY...AT LEAST PARTIALLY FROM THE TWAVE TO THE SOUTH...             
HELPS SHARPEN UP THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE STATE. PWATS STAY AOA 1.8".            
LIKELY POPS WARRANTED ONCE AGAIN...AND AM TEMPTED TO NUDGE UP TO 70             
FOR THE SOUTH GIVEN PWATS PROGGED AOA 2.0" THERE. UPPER LOW REACHES             
THE NE GOMEX FRI...WITH LIGHT/MOD SE FLOW AND MRH PROGS AOA 80%. MAV            
POPS ARE IN THE M50S...AND IMHO GOOD CHC/LIKELY IS WARRANTED ONCE               
AGAIN (50 COAST/60 INLAND).                                                     
SAT-TUE...AVN INSISTS ON KEEPING MRH NEAR/ABOVE 80% SAT/SUN WITH DEEP           
LAYER FLOW REMAINING LIGHT SOUTH. THE ECM IS BACKED MORE TO E/ESE.              
ESE. UNLESS THE LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS AS SHOWN BY THE ECM...                 
COMPONENT...I DON'T SEE US DRYING OUT. WILL SEE WHAT THE AVN POST               
H120 HAS TO OFFER.                                                              
ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL PRETTY MUCH COLLAPSE                
FRI/SAT (H85-H50 MEAN FLOW WEAKENS BELOW 10KT) SO THE THREAT OF                 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE PARTICULARLY HIGH FOR THOSE               
DAYS...AND REALLY DON'T SEE ALL THAT MUCH OF A LETUP FOR SUNDAY.                
COORD WITH TBW/MIA/TAFB. THX TO ALL.                                            
MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS - CURRENT OR FCST. WINDS RANGING BETWEEN                 
ESE-SSE U/F/N . LITTLE IF ANYTHING TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT CWF.                
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
DAB TT 085/071 086/071 086 74646                                                
MCO TT 087/072 088/072 087 74646                                                
MLB TT 085/073 086/073 085 64646    60=                                         
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
245 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH 60 DEGREE                 
DEWPOINTS ACROSS ALL OF CWA. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE              
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WILL SWEEP OUT OVER PLAINS DURING THE DAY. SFC             
WILL RESPOND BY TAKING A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST INTO DAKOTAS/MN            
WHILE COOL FRONT SETTLES INTO NW KANSAS. CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT                
WILL ACT AS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON                    
ACCORDING TO ETAKF AND RUC. OTHER MODELS IMPLY THE BIGGER SHOW WILL             
BE POST FRONTAL AFTER NOCTURNAL JET GETS ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING.              
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIFT OVERNIGHT WILL BE PROVIDED BY STRONG                
UPSLOPE FLOW IN LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WENT WITH 50-60 POPS TONIGHT IN               
LIGHT OF THIS. NEW MESOETA IS A BIT SLOWER WITH SPEED OF COOL FRONT             
THIS AFTERNOON...PLACING IT NEAR GLD AROUND 00Z.  THUS...WILL KEEP A            
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT IN NORTH            
PART OF CWA...THEN BRING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS ALL AREAS            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
THURSDAY SHOULD BRING A DECENT COOLDOWN AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OVER 100             
DEGREES. HOWEVER...COOL FRONT DOES NOT PUSH VERY FAR SOUTH BEFORE               
RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT...SO TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL RETURN BY THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.  A SERIES OF            
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST OUT OF LARGER SCALE               
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP              
THE CURRENT SHOTGUN LOW POPS THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRY THINGS OUT AS            
UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK.                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
19/DLF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
155 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP OVERLAID WITH LATEST RUC DATA                
SHOWS UPPER TROFFING FROM WESTERN NY DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.               
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE TROF SPINNING                  
THROUGH WESTERN AL WITH GOOD MOISTURE FEED FROM THE WESTERN                     
CARIBBEAN UP THROUGH THE GULF STREAM.  RADAR LOOP SHOWS MOST OF THE             
CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS THE PAST SEVERAL            
HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE               
COASTAL COUNTIES.  IR LOOP SHOWS MORE STORMS FORMING OFF THE WEST               
COAST OF FL.  THIS BATCH OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTING THE                 
ZONES BY LATE MORNING.                                                          
BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN A CONSENSUS THAT AN UPPER RIDGE WILL                
BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...PINCHING OFF THE LOW               
PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST.  ETA IS FORECASTING THIS UPPER LOW              
TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO GA BY 12Z FRI MORNING.  ETA IS DEFINITELY THE           
DRIER OF THE TWO MODELS WITH AVN GOING NEAR 70 PERCENT POPS THROUGH             
60HRS.  WHILE AN INVERTED TROF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST            
AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...LIKE ETAS SOMEWHAT LOWER POPS              
AND WILL TREND WITH THAT MODEL.  HEAVIEST RAINFALL STARTING TONIGHT             
SHOULD BE FARTHER NORTH INTO NC AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE GOOD                   
MOISTURE FETCH...CONVERGENCE AND 850 THETA E RIDGING TAKES PLACE.               
WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS DAYTIME HEATING AND            
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WORKS WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA TO PROVIDE            
SCATTERED CONVECTION.  EVEN THOUGH GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS ARE A LITTLE              
HIGH BASED ON YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS HIGHS NEAR 80...WILL KEEP WITH               
MID 80S AS ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS WILL LET TEMPS SOAR.                         
EXTENDED...AVN KEEPS THIS SAME UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.                
INTO THE WEEKEND.  FORTUNATELY FOR THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS...A               
CHANCE OF SH/TS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD AS             
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL              
CONVECTION.  THE AVN ALSO HINTS AT KEEPING A WEAK SFC TROF NEAR THE             
AREA.                                                                           
MARINE...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RIGHT NOW WITH SEAS AT             
2 TO 3 FEET.  WWIII IS NOT ADVERTISING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGE                
UNTIL MAYBE FRI OR SAT WHEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW                 
ENGLAND COAST.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT JUST A BIT ALONG THE            
ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND BOTH THE ETA AND AVN HAVE WINDS INCREASING                
INTO CAUTION LEVELS.  WILL TREND WIND AND SEAS UP TOWARD THE WEEKEND            
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WARM 20-60 NM GA ZONE.  IF ANY SCA CONDITIONS DO            
OCCUR...THEY WILL BE BORDERLINE.                                                
CHS   84  69  84  70 /  60  40  50  30                                          
SAV   84  70  84  71 /  60  40  50  30                                          
CHL   81  72  81  72 /  60  40  50  30                                          
NBC   83  70  84  71 /  60  40  50  30                                          
RBW   85  68  85  68 /  50  30  40  20                                          
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
PY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
405 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
FCST FOCUS ON SHRA CHCS THIS AM...THEN TSTMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.              
PRECIPITATION CHCS WILL BE TIED MAINLY TO PROGRESSION OF 850 MB                 
FEATURES AND ABOVE. CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN MN/IA ASSOC                  
WITH SHRT WV TROF DEPICTED ON RUC...ON NOSE OF BEST 850 MB FLOW...IN            
AXIS OF BEST SFC MOISTURE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 60S. SD MCC                   
RUNNING ALONG 850 MB WRM FNT.                                                   
MODELS DAMPEN ENERGY FM MN/IA SHRT WV AS IT MOVES NE INTO MEAN RDG              
POSITION. WL PUT CHC OF SHRA THIS AM IN WRN CWA...THEN WAIT FOR SD              
COMPLEX TO BRING PCPN TO NW CWA THIS AFTN. BEST CHC OF PCPN FOR REST            
OF SRN WI IS WITH LOW LVL FLOW STEERING INTO STATE TNT AHD OF MID LVL           
TROF AND WKNG SFC FNT THAT CROSS WI OVERNIGHT TNT INTO THU.                     
NEW MESOETA HANGS BNDRY FARTHER NORTH THU NGT INTO FRI...CLOSER TO              
00Z AVN POSITION. WL KP CHC OF PCPN THRU THU NGT IN SRN 1/2 OF CWA...           
BUT PUSH IT SOUTH OF CWA WITH BNDRY FOR FRI...THO 12Z RUNS SHUD BE              
WATCHED FOR FNT REMAINING STNRY IN/NR SRN WI.                                   
TMP GUID LOOKS OK FOR THE MOST PART.                                            
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1010 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
MOIST UNSTABLE AMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE...12Z RAOBS MEASURED              
1.7"-2.0" PW VALUES ACROSS THE STATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CAPS...H50                
TEMPS -9C/-10C...AND A CONVECTIVE TEMP ~87F.  VERTICAL WIND PROFILE             
SHOWS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...THOUGH THE               
LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE IS POORLY DEFINED BLO H925.               
H25 JET WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY FOR                       
PRECIP...AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PENINSULA IS               
GENERATING A DENSE CI DECK OVER THE CWA.                                        
THE CI DECK WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF AFTN CONVECTION...BUT GIVEN THE             
INSTABILITY LVLS...ONLY A SMALL SPARK IS NEEDED.  PRECIP COVERAGE               
WILL BE HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SATURATED SFC-H65 LYR...WILL BUMP SRN             
CWA POPS TO THE LIKELY CAT...REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.                           
MARINE...CANAVEL BUOYS MEASURING S/SE WINDS 10-15KTS W/3-5FT SEAS...            
SPGF/LKWF C-MAN STATIONS HAVE E/SE WINDS AOB 10KTS...SAUF C-MAN                 
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.              
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW                                                          
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GLITTO                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1015 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
WL BE UPDATING FCST TO INCLUDE CHC SHWRS/TSTMS BOS VCNTY AND REMOVE             
TIMING FM REST OF ZNS.                                                          
SHWRS HAVE DVLPD ALG LL CONV ZN ACRS NCNTRL AND ERN MA.  RUC WAS A              
LTL ERLY IN DVLPG ACTVTY THIS MRNG THRUT FA...BUT 12Z RUN SEEMS TO              
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ITS LOCATION.  ALTHO CURRENT ACTVTY MAY                   
DIMINISH OVR NXT COUPLE OF HRS...XPCT MORE SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DVLP             
NEAR BNDRY THRU AFTN AS AMS CONTS TO DESTABILIZE...WITH OROGRAPHICS             
COMING INTO PLAY AS WELL SINCE FLO REMAINS WEAK.  RUC EVEN SHOWS                
MONDADNOCKS AND WORCESTER HILLS AS PRIME LOCS FOR MORE DVLPMNT THIS             
AFTN.  WET BULB ZERO HGTS 7-8KFT AND EL ARND 25KFT SUGGEST SMALL                
HAILER IN STGR STORMS...ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT LCLY HVY                
RAIN WITH SLOW MOVERS AND POTL FOR BACKBLDG.                                    
TSTMS NOW MOVG THRU NJ ARE PRBLY A PRECURSOR TO MORE ACTVTY DVLPG               
ACRS ERN PA THIS AFTN WITH APCH OF S/W.  MDLS INDCT SOME OF THIS MAY            
TRY TO SNEAK INTO SERN NY AND PERHAPS OUR NRN CT ZNS LATE THIS AFTN             
OR ERLY EVE.                                                                    
ERLY THOUGHTS ON LONGER TERM (MON-WED):  00Z/19 OPAVN SOLN AGREES               
WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOOKS MOST RSNBL...TAKING UPR RDG OVR SERN               
STATES AND PUSHING IT OFFSHR BY DAY 7.  CDFNT ACRS GRTLKS MON MRNG              
SAGS S AND SHUD END UP ACRS MIDATLC TUE.  AM PLANNING ON CHC SHWRS              
MON FOLLOWED BY DRY WX TUE AS WK RDG BLDS IN.  WRN END OF FNT LIFTS             
BACK N AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS GRTLKS WED SO WL REINTRO CHC SHWRS ALL             
ZNS. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX TMPS.                                                  
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
JWD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1058 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
MESO SYSTEM IN WISCONSIN LOOKS TO BE DISIPATING. ONLY MAIN CONCERN              
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE CIRRUS BLOW OFF BEGINNING TO INVADE NW             
LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THIN CIRRUS, SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY                
SUNNY IN NW LOWER FOR NOW. WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TEMPERATURES LOOK            
GOOD AS WELL. WILL BE TAKING OUT THE ONSHORE WIND ON THE LAKE                   
MICHGAN SIDE OF N LOWER AND ALONG WHITEFISH BAY WITH THE 950MB WIND             
AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS (KAPX SOUNDING, RUC AND ETA) LAKE BREEZES ARE             
UNLIKELY.                                                                       
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
LUTZ                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS OVER OUR CWA WITH MAINLY HIGH AND MID CLOUDS                
INLAND WITH LOW AND MID CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. RADAR SHOWING A             
GOOD BIT OF PCPN OFFSHORE...AN AREA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PAMLICO               
RIVER E-NE TO THE OUTER BANKS...AND ANOTHER AREA FROM THE EASTERN               
1/2 OF CARTERET COUNTY E TO THE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE. 12Z             
MHX SOUNDING SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE WITH PW 1.81, K INDEX OF              
32, AND LI OF -4.                                                               
WITH INVERTED TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WE HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN PCPN              
OVER LAND BUT GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW, GOOD H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND              
DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER COASTAL AND SOUNDS SECTIONS THIS                   
AFTERNOON AM RELUCTANT TO DECREASE POPS. SPS OUT FOR POTENTIAL                  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND WITH PW OVER 1.5" AND STORM MOTION 5 KT OR               
LESS WILL KEEP THIS IDEA GOING. DO NOT PLAN ON AN UPDATE AT THIS                
TIME.                                                                           
MARINE: SFC STREAMLINES SHOW REFLECTION OF VORT APPROACHING THE                 
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CAPE FEAR. AS FEATURE MOVES NE THINK TROF AXIS               
OFFSHORE WILL PUSH INLAND A BIT AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME SE IN                 
THE WATERS S OF HATTERAS. RUC40 SEEMS TO BE HINTING AT THIS AND                 
IS INITIALIZED WELL WITH WSPDS AND DIR. WILL LIKELY KEEP E WINDS                
FOR WATERS N OF CAPE HATTERAS AS CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SEA BRZ                  
MCHZM AT BAY TODAY AND VEERING OF WIND WILL BE SLOWER TO EVOLVE                 
NWD. SEAS GNRLY 2 TO 4 FEET UNDER LGT S SWELL AND LGT TO MDT CHOP.              
$$                                                                              
WS/COLBY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
926 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
SFC TROF STILL OFFSHORE THIS AM WITH AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP JUST             
TEASING THE SE NC COASTLINE. THIS AREA WILL PULL AWAY THROUGH THE               
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND LATEST RUC SHOWS THE TROF REMAINING OVER               
THE WATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP THIS AFTN WILL BE SCATTERED IN                 
NATURE AND WILL ADJUST POPS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. PLAN ON A 30-50 RANGE             
FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS ALSO LOOK TO BE HELD DOWN BY MORE OF A NE              
SFC FLOW. WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL FL FROM THE GULF SHOULD BRING                
ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP BY TONIGHT.                                         
CWF: WILL INCORPORATE MORE OF A NE DIRECTION INTO FIRST PERIOD AND              
SCATTER OUT THE PRECIP.                                                         
FCSTID = 33                                                                     
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
CRM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
928 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.  THE BERMUDA HIGH IS             
DOMINATING THE EAST HALF OF THE U.S. THE TRADE WINDS/LOW LEVEL JET              
ARE PULLING TROPICAL SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL BEND. SFC AND 700MB               
ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH NEAR THE COAST IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS. RUC                
INDICATED 850MB HORIZONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA IS WANING, SO               
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND.  ANY SHORT LIVED                  
SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE HANDLES WITH              
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.                                                        
06/08                                                                           
PRECIOUS DISCUSSION......                                                       
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MEXICO AND THE              
SWRN US WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM              
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER              
THE SERN US WILL HELP MIX GULF MOISTURE WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE                 
NORTH OVER LA AND EAST TX. ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF                
MOVING THE UPPER LOW WESTWARD TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE OVER TX THIS                
WEEKEND, THE GENERAL WEAK EASTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A              
SLOW INCREASE IN  PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH             
CENTRAL TEXAS. RIDGE STRENGTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN             
A BENIGN DAY TODAY, BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND               
EAST TX SHOULD HAVE REACHED THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY THURSDAY                    
AFTERNOON. THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR 10-20 POPS FOR THE            
EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. LACK OF RECENT                      
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE UPSTREAM REGIONS OF EAST TX/LA KEEPS ME            
FROM GOING AS HIGH AS THE AVN QPF. WILL CALL FOR A COMPROMISE WITH              
THE DRIER ETA AND EXPECT A GRADUAL PENETRATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE               
INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.                  
WITHOUT A HAVING A SIGNIFICANT WAVE FOR MODELS TO AGREE UPON, WILL              
KEEP POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, BUT             
WILL ALSO SPREAD THE CHANCES INTO WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY. EXPECT A             
SLIGHT COOLING TREND IN HIGH TEMPS AS THE MOISTURE INVADES, BUT THE             
AIR SHOULD STILL FEEL JUST AS HOT.                                              
PRELIMS...                                                                      
AUS 093/070/093/070/091 00-11                                                   
DRT 100/078/098/077/096 0000-                                                   
SAT 095/073/093/073/092 00-11                                                   
.EWX...NONE                                                                     
18                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1020 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
I WILL HOLD ON TO THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS THE RUC INDICATES A VORTMAX ROTATING THROUGH THE                   
REGION.  TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE BALLPARK.                                      
.RLX...                                                                         
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
.END/ ELW                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
145 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTION MOSTLY IN WESTERN APALACHEE BAY AND                 
WESTWARD...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE            
AND WESTERN BIG BEND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER              
LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED BY LARGE AREAS OF                 
BLOWOFF OVER THE PANHANDLE...WHILE REMAINING AREAS ARE PRETTY MUCH              
COVERED BY CU. SURFACE DATA SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CREEPING OVER THE            
CWA FROM THE NE. SKIES ARE GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH OF THE                  
FLORIDA STATE LINE...WITH TEMPS 76 TO 86. WINDS ARE GENERALLY                   
EASTERLY AND 10 MPH OR LESS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC80 SHOW THE CWA UNDER            
A WEAK UPPER PATTERN NOW THAT THE MEAN TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NE.             
MODELS/ZONES: SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING                  
ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY             
TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF            
THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW A                 
TENDENCY TO HOLD BACK SOME ENERGY AND EVEN CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW               
OVER THE DELMARVA (AS IN STRONGER AVN)...THEN MOVE IT SOUTH TO THE              
GULF STATES. ONLY MINOR SURFACE DISCREPANCIES...WITH MODELS AGREEING            
ON AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND OFF THE CAROLINAS               
COAST INTO FRIDAY. MODELS PREDICT MEAN 1000-700 MB FLOW THURSDAY                
WILL BE E-NE <10 KTS (TYPE 2 REGIME) WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAX 40                
PERCENT POPS IN EXTREME SERN ZONES...30 PERCENT OTHER PORTIONS OF               
BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE...10-20 PERCENT IN AL AND GA. THIS IS MUCH               
LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH APPARENTLY IS ACCORDING MORE                    
INFLUENCE TO THE INVERTED TROF. WILL ACCEPT INFLUENCE OF INVERTED               
TROF AND BUMP UP POPS AS COMPARED TO THE SEA BREEZE STUDY. MODEL                
SOUNDING PW VALUES WILL STAY BETWEEN 1.6 AND TO 1.85" THROUGH THE               
PERIOD...WITH DAY TIME CAPES RUNNING 1750 TO 2150 J/KG. WILL USE A              
BLEND OF MOS TEMPS AND POPS...INCORPORATING MET...WHICH TENDS TOWARD            
MAV FOR DAY TIME AND MET FOR NIGHT TIME TEMPS. POPS FORECAST IS                 
ENSEMBLE.                                                                       
EXTENDED (SUN-WED): SEA BREEZE WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY. SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES UNDER A            
WEAK UPPER LOW THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER HIGH BEGINS PUSHING OVER US              
AFTER THAT. PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS WEAK WITH HIGH MOISTURE AT LOW/MID            
LEVELS. EXPECT NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.                                                
MARINE: GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER GULF WATERS WITH LIGHT            
WINDS...LOW SEAS AND SCATTERED SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.                           
FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS.                                                      
PRELIM NUMBERS:                                                                 
TLH 68 89 69 87  4534                                                           
PFN 72 88 71 87  2423                                                           
DHN 69 88 69 87  2422                                                           
ABY 68 88 69 85  4533                                                           
VLD 68 88 69 86  5634                                                           
CTY 69 86 69 86  5535                                                           
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
AFD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
326 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
CAP IS IN PLACE AS EVIDENT BY THE IMAGERY AND THE RUC 700MB TMPS OF             
10-13C OVR MST OF THE CWA. LEADING EDGE OF CAP XPNDG EWD NRING ERN              
CWA BDR ATTM AS ID/D BY WEAK CELL THAT FIRED 40SE OF DSM. FOLLOWING             
ALG WITH THE RUC THRU 06Z WITH NEG PCPN IN FA...THEN BRING POPS IN              
FAR NWRN ZONES. BYD THAT ITS A FIGHT BETWEEN THE BUILD HGTS AND THE             
WKNG SFC BNDRY SINKING TO MAYBE SUX-DBQ LN AND AT THE VRY WORST TO              
HIGHWAY 30. LIKE THE MESOETA 850 THETAE FCST WHICH HAS THAT LVLS                
BNDRY LIFTG N TO ALG THE MN BDR BY 00Z FRI. JUST UNSURE ON WHERE TO             
SUPPRESS THE CONVECTION AND WHERE TO PUSH THE POPS. GUT THINKING                
THAT NRN HALF OF FA IS REALLY UNDER THE GUN AND THAT THE SRN HALF WL            
BE DRY INTO FRI. PULLED CONVECTION OUT OF SAT AFTN THINKING THE UPR             
RDG REALLY BUILDS IN BY THEN AND SUPPRESSES EVERYTHING. BYD SUN...NO            
PCPN MENTION AS SUMMER TIME UPR RDG IN PLAY WITH ANY PCPN THREAT TO             
OUR N. TMPS ESSENTIALLY IN THE 80S AND 60S.                                     
.DSM...WIND ADV MOST OF FA TIL 7 PM.                                            
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1158 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                     
JUST COMPLETED UPDATE OF ALL ZONES. ADJUSTED WINDS IN WESTERN HALF              
OF CWFA BASED ON CURRENT FRONTAL POSITION AND LATEST RUC. ALSO                  
RAISED TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PORTION...BASED ON                 
CURRENT TEMPS/LATEST RUC. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATE WAS TO THE                    
NORTHEAST ZONE GROUP. CAP WILL BE WEAKEST THERE BY LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC AND ETA KAIN-FRITSCH BLOWS UP THUNDERSTORMS               
IN THIS AREA AFT 21Z. THAT ZONE GROUP WAS DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON SO             
ADDED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO IT.                                            
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
225 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM (TNGT-FRI NGT):  ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE POPPED UP INVOF              
WEAK SFC BNDRY ALG S COAST...AND ALSO DUE TO TERRAIN ENHANCEMEN OVR             
WRN MA.  XPCT TO SEE SOME ADDTL DVLPMNT THRU THIS EVE ALG E SLOPES              
OF BERKS...MONADNOCKS AND ORH HILLS WHERE TERRAIN FORCING SHUD BE               
GRTST.  STORMS SO FAR HAVE BEEN SLO MOVERS DUE TO WEAK WND FIELD                
ALF SO LCLY HVY RAFL WL BE MAIN PRBLM...THO WITH LOW WET BULB ZERO              
HGTS (7-8KFT) AND LO EL (25KFT) SMALL HAILERS NOT OUT OF THE                    
QUESTION EITHER.  RUC INDCTS QUICK DSIPTN OF ACTVTY AFT 00Z DUE TO              
LOSS OF HTG.                                                                    
ONCE CNVTCN DIES OFF THIS EVE...QUIET WX INTO FRI NGT AS UL RDG BLDS            
OVR TOP.  FOR TNGT SKIES CLR AND WITH LGT WNDS WENT BLO MOS VALUES.             
LOTS OF SUN THU WITH WARMER TEMPS AWAY FM COAST.  NOT MUCH EITHER               
INTO FRI NGT.  WENT CLOSER TO AVN WITH APCHG CDFNT AS ETA LOOKS TOO             
FAST GIVEN POSN OF UL RDG.                                                      
NO HEADLINES ON MARINE FCST.                                                    
NOTCHEY                                                                         
LONG TERM (SAT-WED):  SFC RDG HOLDS ITS OWN ACRS SRN NEW ENG SAT...             
WITH WEAKENING CDFNT LYING ACRS NRN NYS/NEW ENG AND INVERTED SFC                
TROF FM WKNG CSTL LO XTNDG UP NJ COAST.  GOING TO KEEP SAT FCST DRY             
AS WE THINK RDG WL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF BTWN THE TWO SYS...               
THO BY SUN AVN SHOWS ENUF WEAKNESS IN RDG TO ALLOW CLDS/SCTD SHWRS TO           
REACH FA AS MOISTR STREAMS IN FM S AND INTERACTS WITH CDFNT.                    
FOR MON AND BYD...AVN AGREES WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LOOKS MOST                  
RSNBL...TAKING UPR RDG OVR SERN STATES AND PUSHING IT OFFSHR BY DAY             
7.  12Z RUN HAS SPED UP CDFNT'S PROGRESS...NOW OVR S COAST AS                   
COMPARED TO GRTLKS ON 00Z RUN...SO DECIDED TO KEEP MON/TUE DRY AS FNT           
PUSHES TO MIDATLC.  WRN END OF FNT LIFTS BACK N AS SFC LO TRACKS ACRS           
GRTLKS WED SO WL REINTRO CHC SHWRS ALL ZNS. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX                 
TMPS.                                                                           
JWD                                                                             
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
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