MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Editor, W. J. HUMPHREYS
VOL. 63, No. 12 W. B. No. 1171 DECEMBER 1935 CLOEED FEBRUARY 3, 1936 I~EUED MARCH 16, 1936
PROGRESS IN INTERNATIONAL METEOROLOGY '
By WILLIS RAY GREGG, Chief of Bureau
[Weather Bureau, Washington, December 18351
The International Meteorological Organization (I. M. 0.) provides one of the finest examples of international cooperation and good will that can be found anywhere. I t can be said, without fear of contradiction, that the accomplishments of this organization in bringing about uniformity of practice have no parallel, either in scientific endeavor or in the fields of international politics and commerce. I t is an interesting experience to participate in one of the conferences. There is an atmosphere of
cordiality and friendship, combined with one of deter- mination to reach a common viewpoint. This does not mean that the various national represent,atives accept, at once and without debate, the recommendations of committees appointed to consider certain questions of policy and procedure. On the contrary, individual opinions are freely expressed and vigorously defended, and the discussions may carry over from one conference
to the nest. But in the end, with rare exception, satis- factory agreements are reached and are put into practice. There are two main reasons for this. First, meteorology
is more completely international in its application to human activities than is any other science. The weather that one country has today is closely related to that of all adjacent countries and will be essentially the weather of some of those countries tomorrow. Hence, standardi- zation in presenting the reports from all these countries
for study by the forecaster is essential for their prompt and effective use. In the second place, every meteorologist recognizes so keenly both the very real inherent a- culties in making progress in the practical application of meteorological science, especially in the problems of fore- casting, and also the enormous economic and other benefits that would result from such progress, that he is willing to submerge his own individual views in a com-
mon and united effort for the good of all.
HISTORY OF THE I. M. 0.
Although several informal conferences of officials &liated with Government-supported meteorological services were held in Euro e-during th? early seventies,
first formed at Rome in 1879. Since that date there have
been meetings at intervals averaging about 6 years. In the earlier onea, chiefly European sermces partkipated, but in the last two conferences, 1929 an$ 1935, about 40
countries took part, including many in the Southern Hemisphere. At the present time there are 105 meteoro- logical or closely related scientific se,rvices represented
the International Meteor0 P ogwal Orgamzation itself was
I A report on the 1936 meeting of the International Meteorological Organization at Warsew and on conferenma at several leading meteorological officap in Europe.
47443-36-1
in t,he organization. However, some countries have two or more such services, more or le,ss independent al- though all supported by their governments, with the result that actually the membership of the organization now includes 54 countries. From time to time commissions have been appointed to deal with specific phases of meteorological service. Al- though only directors of national services can be members of the parent organization, the commissions are composed of an unliniited number of technical employees of those services and also a t times include a few outstanding
scientists who have no official affiliations. Membership in these comissions, each of which includes 1 or more directors, now totals nearly 300 pe.rsons.
CLOUD ATLAS
The record of accomplishnients during these 60 years is impres?ive. One of the most far-reaching was the organization of an intensive, world-wide study of clouds and cloud heights, and the selection of cloud forms.and adoption of nomenclature which, with some minor changes have provided a ide to all national services and made possible ready an f-l reliable comparison of cloud data from all parts of the world. Recently a revision has been made of the Cloud Atlas, embracing for the most part
minor changes resulting from experience, but not ap re- ciably altemg the basic character of the original. &he universal adoption of the new atlas seems assured.
POLAR YEAR FROJECTS
Another major achievement was the organization of
two so-called Polar Year campaigns. In t,he first one, August 1852 to August 1883, inclusive, effort was directed chiefly bo securing statistical data from a large number of points in high latitudes. There result'ed a large body of very valuable information, mostly useful in theoretical studies. At that period no use of it could be made cur- rent,ly, since communication facilities in remote regions had not been developed. The second campaign, August
1932 to August 1933, inclusive, was more comprehensive, being world-wide in scope, and emphasizing the utility of t,he dat,a in synoptic researches. Much attention was given also to upper air soundings throughout the world, particularly in polar and subpolar regions. I t is too early to appraise fully the value of this project, but excel- lent progress is being made in compiling, charting, and summarizing the data, and it is the general view that results of far-reaching importance will come from studies of them, as soon as they are made available inpublished form.
339
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW DECEMBER 1935
THE COPENHAGEN CONFERENCE
When the history of the International Meteorological Organization is written, the 1929 conference in Copen- hagen will undoubtedly stand out as marking the begin- ning of a new epoch in international progress in weather servic,e. Prior to that time effort had been concentrated largely on t,he standardization of methods of observation, nomenclature, and form of publication. Some attention had been given also to the exchange of current reports, but only on a rather limited scale, means of transmission not having then been developed to a point permitting anything like a comprehensive international service.
INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE OF REPORTS
With the advances that have been made in radio, how- ever, particularly during the past decade, the situation has been very completely changed. At the outset of its develo ment, radio was recognized as constituting a
tion of a goal which meteorologists had been dreaming about for years, namely, the preparation day by day of weather maps, first for an entire hemisphere, and eventu- ally for the entire world. Sporadic efforts to this end were made by different services, but a great multiplicity of codes grew up and many other difficulties arose, with the result that progress was slow. The problem was attacked in a most energetic way at the Copenhagen conference. It was recognized that greatest efficiency in international exchange could be attained only by simplification and standardization of methods along three principal lines, namely,. codes, units, and symbols. A uniform code is essential to overcome difficulties inherent in a diversity of languages. Happily, all countries use the same figures, and so a figure code has been adopted and is used in all international exchanges
and' will almost certainly, in the comparatively near future, be substituted for other codes by all national serv- ices.
For example, English-speaking countries use the Fahrenheit scale for temperature, whereas nearly all others use the centigrade. Again, there are differences in measures of length, speed, etc. Complete uniformity cannot be realized unless and until some of the countries themselves officially change their units. However, uniformity has been effected to the extent that is possible at the present time. Until recent years it was of little consequence whether or not the symbols on weather maps in one city agreed with those in another. Few people ever saw other than the maps issued in their own city. With the rapid development of aviation, however, the situation became completely changed. Pilots, and passengers too, are vitally interested in the weather and study the maps in great detail. In the course of a single trip they may see several different ones. It is essential for them that the symbols be uniform, not only at different points in the same country, but also in different countries; and this has now, in large part, been brought about. Although the foundation, and a very substantial one, was laid at the Copenhagen conference, many details remained to be whipped into shape, and this work wns largely accomplished at the recent conference in Warsaw.
It is a notable achievement and, with the passage of time, will be increasingly recognized as marking a milestone in international meteorology, particularly in the prompt and accurate exchange of reports that is so necessary in forecasting for all activities, continental, aerial and ma-
powe r p ul potential agency for bringing about the realiza-
The matter of units is not so simple.
rine. Credit goes to the members of the Commission on Synoptic Meteorology, and especially to its President, Col. E. Gold, of the British Meteorological Office.
THE WARSAW CONFERENCE
This conference was preceded by meetings of the Com- mission on Agricultural Meteorology and the Climatologi- cal Commission at Danzig. A brief report of the action
taken by these commissions is given in this issue of the
REVIEW by J. B. Kincer, who was the Weather Bureau's representative at these meetings.
AEROLOGY AND AERONAUTICAL METEOROLOGY
For the past 30 years, one of the most active cqmmis- sions of the International Meteorological Orgamzation has been the Commission for the Exploration of the Upper Air, now known as the International Aerological Com- mission. Its record has been one of outstanding aclueve- ment. It initiated and has supervised the so-called International Days program of upper-air soundings. Admittedly, it is very desirable to have such observations every day, but the cost is prohibitive in the case of nearly all national services; hence, it was decided to concentrate effort on securing world-wide simultaneous soundings on
a few selected days each year. This program has yielded results of great value, vastly extending our knowledge of atmospheric structure and processes. Pet it is generally recognized that a mere beginning has been made. Methods of observation, highly ingenious and the best available a t each successive stage in the development of this program, have always been and now are inadequate, gving us only partial, and in many cases not the really essential information. There has always been definite advance, however, and the recent Warsaw conference brought out conclusively that the curve of progress, heretofore gradual, is due for a marked upward jump in the relatively near future.
RADIO ASBUMES A NEW ROLE
In securing upper air data, kites, captive and manned balloons have had their day, pilot and sounding balloons and airplanes are having them now, but all are bound very shortly to give way to radio which will assume the twofold role of observer as well as transmitter of meteoro- logical data. The idea of utilizing radio for this purpose was first suggested some 15 to 20 years ago. Soon several investi- gators were working on the problem, and some reliminary
1927 in France. The first really successful results, however, were obtained at Slutsk, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, in 1930, under the direction of P. A. Moltchanov. Since then progress has been rapid, a large number of reasonably satisfactory soundings having been made during the International Polar Year, 1932-33.
At the present time daily records are being obtained at 10
stations in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, and nearly all other meteorological services are conducting researches for the purpose of developing apparatus which shall be considerably lighter in weight and less costly
than any at present available. It is grdfying to be able to state that this country is taking a very active part in this investigation, particularly at the National Bureau of Standards, with the cooperation of the United States Weather Bureau, and at Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory.
tests were made as early as 1923 in the Unite x States and
DECEMBER 1935 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 34 1
A good indication of the importance that is attached to this matter is the adoption of a resolution by the Aerological Commission, designed, if possible, to bring about a standard type of instrument, thus reducing cost. The resolution reads as follows:
The Commission instructs its President to make inquiry of all services regarding pending construction of radio sounding balloons as a basis for standardization of the weight, as well as the price by single piece or by mass production. The result of this inquiry
will be compiled by the Institute to provide data to advance and to direct the uniform development of the irnport.ant radio sounding instruments.
All of this activity by many meteorological services is inspired chiefly by recent rapid developments along two lines: (1) The te,ndency to higher altitude flying, and the resulting need for curred iqforniation on upper air condi- tions for use in determining the safest and most efficient flying altitudes. (2) The application of physical prin- ciples t o the analysis of the weather map as a bnsis for prediction of future deve,lopnie,nt aiid the resulting need for current information on upper air conditions as high up as possible, in all types of weathr, on land and sea, especially in isolated regions not otherwise accessible. The radio inet>eorograph, attached t80 a rubber balloon of the type and qudity now available will meet t h e needs more completely than does anything else thus far devised. IVbile still to some extent in the e,xperimental stage, sufficient progress already has been made to assure a comprehensive program of upper air observations to great height,s within the comparatively near future.
REVISION OF THE STATUTES O F THE I. M. 0. TO MEET THE
NEEDS O F AERONAUTICS
Several years ago it was recognized tha.t there was need for an additional commission t80 consider the most effective application of weather service to the needs of aviation, and accordingly a Coinniission on the Applica- tion of Meteorology to Aerial Navigation was formed. I n the meantime, however, other orgnnizat#ions dealing with aeronautics had come into being, particularly the International Commission for Air Navigation (C. I. N. A.) and the International Aeronautical Conference (C. A. I.), both of whic.li had subcommissions dealing with weathe,r service. There was need for a coordination of the effort,s of these two and the older Inte.rnationa1 hleteorological Organization, a need that has bec.ome increasingly ap- parent in the last few years. Accordingly, one of the most iinportant actions taken at the Warsaw conference was a revision of its statiites that made possible the forniat,ion of a coninlission whose membership will include represent,nt8ives of other bodies dealing wibh t>he application of wenthe,r service to aero- nautics. This revision was made by a special committee under the chairmanship of Sir George Simpson, Director of the British Meteorological Office. Other members of
the committee were representatives of the meteorological services of France, Germany, Holland, Italy, New Zea-
land, Norway, Poland, and the United State,s. The report of the committee was approved by the Int,er- national Meteorological Organization. It provides that
the membership of the new commission, wllic,li is known as the Commission on Aeronautical Meteorology, shall consist chiefly of re,preseutatives, c.hosen by the various countries, who aTe recognized as esperts in aer0nautic.s and particularly in the relat,ion of meteorology thereto.
It is not necessary that they be members of the Interna- tional Me teorologic,al Organiza tion. However, cer tain officials of the latter are authorized t.0 attend meetings of
the Commission in an advisory capacity, including par- ticularly the presidents of the commissions on synoptic weather, upper-air investigations snd maritime meteo- rology. Moreover, all resolutions adopted by the com- mission must receive the approval of the President of the International Meteorological Organization before becom- ing effective. This action is an excellent illustration of the increasing recognition that is being given to aeronautics and its importance as a means of transportation. It marks a distinct step forward in assuring that everything possible will be done by all meteorological services to contribute their proper share in making flying safe and efficient.
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
This subject was not on the agenda of the conference at Warsaw, but there was opportunity to discuss it more or less informally with various delegates there and also in the course of visits to some of the leading meteorological offices in Europe. Generally speaking, there was little evidence of op-
timism as the result of the extensive investigations thus far made. In many of the countries much research has been carried on during past years, and in some cases cycles or correlations have been established that seemed to give encouraging results for a few years, only to break down later with a succession of failures for a similar period. As
a result, effort along this line has been largely abandoned in most countries, the exceptions being German and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Time di (9 not per- mit looking into the subject in Germany, but it was dis- cussed during a brief stay in Leningrad, chiefly by Mr. Kincer, from whose report the following excerpts are
taken:
The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics has a separate institute
at Leningrad for long-range forecasting, officially designated The
Institute of Long-Term Weather Analyses, at which weekly fore- casts are regularly issued covering a month in advance. They are also experimenting with longer time, or seasonal, forecasts, but the work in this respect has not developed to the phase of official predictions. In general, the method used in their weekly forecasts is based
ou normal seasonal synoptic charts, or the averages of movements, behavior, and resulting weather of cyclones and anticyclones (in family relations) 8s determined from their life histories over a long period of years. As a basis for operations they have charted the paths of HIGHS and LOWS, by seasons, from 1881 to 1933, from which the most frequented paths are considered as normals for the several seasons, and the life histories, after appearing on the synoptic charts from day to day, were determined as a guide for predicting the results of comparable conditions that may be in evidence a t the time the forecast is made. For preparing the normal charts, definite dates were not used to represent the dif-
ferent seasons, such as December-February for winter, etc. ; but rather, the limits of the cold season, for example, were fixed from an arbitrary determination of the beginning of the first definite cold wave of winter to the last for that season. These vary from
year to year and differ considerably in different years. In determining the life history of a cyclone or an anticyclone the month was divided into four parts, representing four succes-
sive weeks subsequent to the appearance of the cyclone or anti- cyclone, and the average condition for each of these periods was used as a base in making the current successive weekly forecasts. In some cases forecasts for the successive weeks are for the week as a unit, while in others the week is divided into the first and second half. Forecasts are msde for 28 different regions and, in general, are expressed in broad terms.
For verification purposes, all forecasts appearing on the chart are used instead of verifying individual districts separately. A
specified tolerance is allowed for these verifications; a time lee-
way of four days, two on each side of the weeks range, and a tem- perature tolerance of 2 C. on each end of the scale. That is,
instead of the 7-day period specified in the forecast, if the forecast is verified for any 7 days within an 11-day period, the specified
7 days plus 2 days preceding the week or 2 days following, and
342 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW DECEMBEB 1935
if the temperature did not vary more than 2 C. from the limits forecast, verification is credited. However, in the caBe of tem- perature, if any station shows a disagreement beyond the tolerance allowed the entire forecast is counted as a failure. The basic temperature range as forecast is usually about 7 C., plus 2 C. tolerance for verifying purposes. For example, the forecast for the week July 16-22, 1935, reads Temperature of the whole period in the limits of 14-7O C.
This c,onstitutes a serious effort to accomplish some- thing definite in the highly dif6cult task of extending
the period of forecasts. It has been in operation too short a time to make possible an appraisal of its depend- ability and value, but it w i l l be watched with keen interest and with the hope that its continued use will be justified.
CONCLUSIONS
During the past decade international meteorology has made advances that are without parallel in the previous
history of the science. Progress has been marked both in theory and in practical application to human activities, particularly to agriculture, engineering, hydrology, and marine and aerial navigation. Chief contributors to this progress are the standardization of methods of international exchange of continental and marine reports, the development of improved technique in upper-air exploration, and the application of well-established physical laws to forecasting. The increasing dignity, respectability, and efficiency of meteorological service generally are due in no small measure to the inclusion of advanced training courses in this subject in the cur- ricula of leading educational institutions in many coun- tries. With these factors as a ground work, we look forward, with confidence, to the building up of an ever increasingly efficient service, contributing its proper share to progress in the economic, commercial, and social life of the world.
THE DANZIG MEETINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CLIMATOLOGICAL COMMISSION
AND THE COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
By J. B.
[Weather Bureau, Was1
At the meetings of the International Climatological Commission and the International Commission on Agri- cultural Meteorology at Danzig on August 28-31, 1935,
a number of important matters relating to international climatology and agricultural meteorology were considered. Among these may be mentioned definitions of symbols for use in climatological publications; letter symbols for representing the divisions of the day; international es- change by radio of monthly means of pressure, tenipera- ture and precipitation; the publication of climatological data by pentad means in addition to monthly means; the best period to be covered for standard means or nor- mals, from which to compute departures for individual months and for the year, etc. With regard to the matter of symbols, Dr. Bergeron, formerly of the Norwegian Meteorological Service, but more recently with the Swedish Service at Stockholm, presented an eleborate series of definitions of hydromete-
ors with a proposal that the Climatological Commission recommend their adoption by the International Organi- zation. In addition to symbols to represent the various meteorological phenomena, his proposal was to add rather extensive definitions to cover, in many cases, the dynami- cal processes considered responsible for their development. The British, Canadian, and United States delegates of- fered opposition to this, especial1 with regard to the
sent, or stand for, the several phenomena and that no theory as to how they are developed dynamically should be included. Also, in some cases, his scheme was un- satisfactory to the Americans because of a difference in nomenclature: For example, sleet was defined as pre- cipitation of melting snow, or of snow and rain mixed, whereas in Canada and the United States sleet is an entirely different thing. After much discussion it was evident that no agreement could be had, and a motion was made and carried to refer the entire subject to a joint committee, composed of the Climatological Commission and the Commission on Synoptic Weather, to be held a t Warsaw prior to the Directors meeting. At Warsaw the matter was again considered, with the result that the original proposal was modified in a w-ay that largely sus- tained the view-s of the American and the English dele-
definitions, contending that symbo 9 s should merely repre-
KINCER
ihgton, December 19351
gates. Also, a proposal to remove drizzle from the cate- gory of rain, distinguishing it as a separate phenomenon, was met by opposition from the English and the Ameri- can delegates, and was not approved. Recommendation for a rather important change in thunderstorm symbols was made, the following being adopted: E, thunderstorm, including rain, at station;
(E), distant thunderstorm (observed from, but not oc- curring at, the station); and <, distant lightning without audible thunder. The matter of letter symbols to designate meridian divisions of the day was considered. The designations heretofore used by the Weather Bureau include a for before noon; p, afternoon; dnp), during the night before midnight; and dna, during the night after mid- night. Several delegates desired to establish definite hours to which the symbols should apply, such as: np to represent the period between 9 p. m. and midnight, and iia, between midnight and 3 a. m. The following were finally recommended: a, before noon; p, after- noon; %, nighttime; hp)), nighttime before midnight; and na, nighttime after midnight, without definite time divisions. I t may be noted that this conforms to Weather Bureau practice, escept in minor details which have been changed to effect entire agreement. Closely allied to this was the matter of letter symbols to designate the official ele-i-ation of meteorological sta- tions and instruments. Some changes were made in the heretofore international designations, with adoption of the following: H, elevation above sea level of the ground at the station, to be considered the official elevation of the station; Hb, elevation of barometer cistern above sea level; h,, thermometer above ground; h,, anemometer above ground; h,, wind vane (wind director) above ground; and h,, rain gage above ground. This, in general conforms to present Weather Bureau practice, except t,hat no designation for H has been carried in this country, the official station elevation being that for the barometer above sea level as of the epoch 1900, or the actual barom- eter elevation for stations established since that time. This requires a change in Weather Bureau practice, and action already has been taken to bring our records into line with the agreement, beginning January 1, 1936.