000
FGUS74 KLZK 301853
ESFLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-021-023-025-029-031-039-041-043-045-047-
049-051-053-055-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-083-085-089-095-097-
099-101-103-105-109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-
147-149-311200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MARCH 
18TH - 20TH. A LARGE AREA RECEIVED FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF RAIN DURING 
THE THREE DAY EVENT...WITH ISOLATED AREAS MEASURING OVER SIX INCHES 
OF RAIN. THIS HEAVY RAIN BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT RELIEF... 
ESSENTIALLY ALLEVIATING THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LONG TERM 
DEFICITS REMAIN THOUGH...AND ARE STILL IN EXCESS OF TWELVE INCHES 
DURING THE PAST 12 MONTHS ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS.

.DROUGHT MONITOR...THE DROUGHT MONITOR CAN BE VIEWED ONLINE AT 
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN SEVERAL 
GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THESE INCLUDE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE DROUGHT 
MITIGATION CENTER...THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF 
AGRICULTURE...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...STATE AND 
REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND SEVERAL OTHER PARTICIPANTS.

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY AT 9 AM. THE DATA CUTOFF 
FOR THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS 7 AM TUESDAY. THIS MEANS ANY RAIN WHICH 
FALLS AFTER 7 AM TUESDAY WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THAT WEEKS 
MONITOR...BUT RATHER THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

THERE ARE FOUR LEVELS OF DROUGHT DEPICTED ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR. 
THEY INCLUDE D1 - MODERATE DROUGHT...D2 - SEVERE DROUGHT...D3 - 
EXTREME DROUGHT...AND D4 - EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.

THIS WEEKS U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENTS IN 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS ARKANSAS AS COMPARED TO TWO WEEKS AGO. THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABNORMALLY DRY 
/D0/ CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS STILL EXPERIENCING 
MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS...WITH SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ 
CONDITIONS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE 
ALLEVIATED THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...LONG TERM 
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN.

.CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...RAIN DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS BEEN 
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS AREAS OF ARKANSAS...IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHWEST 
CORNER OF THE STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE LESSER ACROSS THE 
NORTH...GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH...WHILE AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY OVER 
THREE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS LARGE AREAS OF THE 
STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL...INCLUDING THE AREAS HARDEST HIT BY 
THE DROUGHT...LARGE LONG TERM DEFICITS REMAINS. IN THE PAST TWELVE 
MONTHS...RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN OVER 20 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST 
ARKANSAS...REPRESENTING 50 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL.

.IMPACTS...THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS PROVIDED SHORT TERM ALLEVIATION 
OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE RIVERS OF MAINLY SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. 
FLOW LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY OF RIVERS ACROSS THE STATE WERE IN THE 
AVERAGE RANGE...THOUGH BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS WERE STILL BEING 
MEASURED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF ARKANSAS.
 
ALSO...THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE STATE HAS DECREASED. ACCORDING TO 
THE ARKANSAS FORESTRY COMMISSION...ALL PORTIONS OF THE STATE ARE 
EITHER IN LOW OR MODERATE WILDFIRE DANGER.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SHORT TERM RELIEF OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS...
LONG TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN. ACCORDING TO CALCULATED SOIL 
MOISTURE DATA FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...SOIL MOISTURE 
REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE...WITH THE LARGEST DEFICITS NOTED 
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS.  

.FORECAST...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM 
WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. IF THIS 
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGER. 
BUT AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE 
HALF AND ONE INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT...THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE 
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR 
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF ARKANSAS THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. IT 
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A FORECAST FOR RAINFALL PROBABILITY AND 
NOT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
THROUGH THE REGION...BUT THE QUICK SPEED OF THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOW.

IN THE LONGER TERM...FORECASTS FOR MUCH OF THE SPRING INDICATE THAT 
BELOW NORMAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS FOR THE STATE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG 
TERM SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FROM THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION 
CENTER...WHICH SHOWS IMPROVEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD /RAINFALL OVER 
THE PAST TWO WEEKS/ BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE 
SPRING.

&&

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON APR 13 2006.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WEB...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/HTML/DROUGHT05.HTM

QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS MAY BE DIRECTED TO...

CHRIS BUONANNO
SCIENCE AND OPERATIONS OFFICER
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR 
501-834-0308 
CHRISTOPHER.BUONANNO@NOAA.GOV

$$

INIGUEZ