AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
915 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONTAL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA                
WITH SOUTH FLORIDA IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A VORT MAX IS MOVING             
STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WELL WEST OF TAMPA. THE              
LASTEST RUC HAS THIS VORT MAX WEAKENING SOME LATE TONIGHT WITH MOST             
OF THE MRH NORTH OF OUR AREA. 00Z SOUNDING STILL HAS DRY AIR ABOVE              
815 MB. BELEIVE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL IN THE MORNING AND                 
EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WHEN THE WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH. THERE             
IS A CHANCE FOR LOW TOPPED SHOWERS WITH LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE             
LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL IN ALL THE FAN POPS ARE NOT              
WORKING OUT SO THE NGM LOOKS MORE RELIABLE ATTM.                                
FOR THE PM UPDATE...WILL DROP POPS TO <20 WESTERN PARTS AND 20%                 
SOUTHEAST PARTS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLOUDYS                  
ALONE. FOR THE TEMPS...WILL UP THEM A BIT ALL ZONES DUE TO                      
TEMPS/DEWPTS CURRENTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOUD COVER MOST OF NIGHT.            
BOUYS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST HAVE PICKED UP TO 20 KNOTS. WILL AMEND           
CWF FOR SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT.                                                 
.MIA...SCA JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF AND BISCAYNE BAY.                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
855 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
IN THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WITH SOME TWEAKING            
NEEDED. WITH MAINLY LIQUID PRECIP EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...NO ADVISORIES            
OR WATCH ARE NEEDED.  HOWEVER...PER DISCUSSIONS WITH JAX...FAR NE               
PARTS OF CWA IN GA...WHERE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL APPROACH NEAR               
FREEZING IN SPOTS...SOME SCATTERED FREEZING LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET MAY             
BE POSSIBLE. KAMG TEMP IN SE GA HAS STABILIZED AT 39 AS OVERCAST                
CLOUDS PRESENT. SOME WEAK CAA & EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE OVER            
THIS AREA...BUT ATTM...BELIEVE IT WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS EAST OF              
CWA. ALSO...LATEST RUC FAVORS AREA TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING WITH SE               
FLOW & ALL THICKNESS INDICATORS ARE ABOVE FREEZING. LOW IN GULF                 
MOVING EAST VERY SLOWLY. ALSO...RUC SHOWING A LULL IN PRECIP                    
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AS WELL AS IR SATELLITE IMAGES & AREA                
RADARS SHOWING PRECIP AREAS MORE NW & SE OF CWA. WILL UPDATE TO                 
LOWER POPS A BIT. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. MARINE SCA STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH             
CURRENT BUOY DATA.                                                              
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM ALL MARINE ZONES.                           
MCT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
757 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT EASTERLY FLOW HAS                    
MODIFIED AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE                  
PENINSULA.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL TROUGH (WARM FRONT)                
FROM CANAVERAL NORTH.  WEAK FRONT CURVES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE                   
PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF.  AREAS OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MOVING                    
NORTHEAST...NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING              
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.  THIS AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS WELL TO THE                  
SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.                                              
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH HALF IN               
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING                    
STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE GULF.  MESO ETA SHOWS AREA OF RAIN OVER THE            
GULF DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HEAVIER RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE             
VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH.  LIKELY/GOOD CHANCE POPS OVER THE               
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WILL HANDLE THIS OKAY IF IT MATERIALIZES.  DO            
NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE ZONES.                                   
MARINE...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXIST OVER BOTH               
LEGS.  LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE NEAR 20 KNOT                
EASTERLY WINDS...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST MUCH...                
IF AT ALL.                                                                      
.MLB...SCA N OF COCOA.                                                          
LASCODY                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
BANDED PCPN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN THIRD OF FCST AREA ASSTD WITH               
INITIAL MID LEVEL SHORT WV AND DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES. RUC                 
SHOWS THIS WAVE QUITE WELL AND ALSO SHOWS A LUL IN MID LEVEL FORCING            
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER GUID KEEPS DECNET MOISTURE ADVECTION AND                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS AREA. CURRENT POPS WITH HIGHEST VALUES TO THE            
N LOOKS GOOD AS 1ST BAND OF PCPN WL LKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING                
MUCH PAST MLB.                                                                  
SECOND...RATHER WEAK...MID LEVEL FEATURE AND INCREASING UPPER LVL               
DIVERGENCE FROM COUPLED JET WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR PCPN TNT. MDLS             
IN DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND LOCATION OF MID LEVEL                
WAVE BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF TRENDS MOVE TOWARDS ETA                  
SOLUTION.                                                                       
TNX FOR COORD JAX.                                                              
MARINE...LARGE GRADIENT IN WNDS SPEEDS N OF INVERTED SFC TROF/WAVE              
ALONG THE E COAST OF FL. SAUF REPORTING 20 TO 25KT WITH CANAVERAL BUOY          
LESS THAN 10KT. RUC/MESO-ETA SUGGESTS GRADIENT MAY TEND TO TIGHTEN              
OVER N WATERS AS INITIAL VORT PULLS OFF TO THE E. CURRENT FCST OF               
SCEC CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD.                                                     
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
BLOTTMAN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
725 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM WITH SPC OUTLOOKING THE                   
FL PH AND SE AL IN DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THROUGH 12Z. ALSO...                
OF MORE CONCERN IS WINTER WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE             
CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALREADY HAVE RECIEIVED          
ISOLATED SLEET REPORTS FROM COFFEE COUNTY ALABAMA. ETA MODEL SEEMS              
TO HAVE HANDLED THE SFC SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEST AT 06Z AND ALSO ITS              
PRECIP AREAS. SO WILL LEAN TWD THAT MODEL.                                      
RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS FROM 850-700 MB SHOW WARMER LOW              
LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA FROM               
09Z TO 15Z. RUC AND ETA MODEL THICKNESS POINT TO PRECIP IN THE                  
FROZEN VARIETY ACROSS OUR NRN AND NERN ZONES THROUGH THE LATE                   
MORNING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND AREA REPORTS HOWEVER SUPPORT SLEET            
IN AREAS NOT COVERED BY EITHER RUC OR ETA MODEL FCST OF LOWER                   
THICKNESSES. WILL GO WITH GROUND TRUTH ON THIS ONE...AND INCLUDE                
POSSIBLE SLEET MENTION IN MOST INLAND AREAS THIS MORNING.                       
TONIGHT AND SAT...BIG FCST QUESTION IS WILL "WEDGE" HOLD IN OVER                
OUR XTRM NRN GA COUNTIES. WILL LEAN TWD YES AT THIS POINT.                      
WILL SEE MORE S/W ENERGY ROTATE THOUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SO POPS            
WILL STAY FAIRLY HIGH. AT THE SFC...WARM FRONT NEVER QUITE MAKES A              
SOLID PUSH THROUGH THE CWA AND LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING WITH S/W                  
ENERGY WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FA.                                              
COORD WITH MOB AND ATL AND WILL LIKELY GO WITH WINTER WX ADVSIORY               
TODAY FOR PORTIONS SW GA. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR            
OUR NRN TIER OF GA COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF WEDGING             
HOLDING IN LONGER THAN ETA/NGM MODELS ELUDE TO.                                 
EXTENDED: WILL WAIT ON FMR NUMBERS FOR CHANGES.                                 
MARINE: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL MARINE ZONES.                                
PRELIM...                                                                       
TLH 051/047 057/049 7765                                                        
PFN 054/047 061/051 6666                                                        
DHN 048/045 054/047 7776                                                        
ABY 043/037 050/045 7776                                                        
VLD 050/042 058/047 7766                                                        
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY GENERALLY N OF A LINE FROM FT               
      GAINES TO OCILLA/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING                     
      GENERALLY S OF A LINE FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA.                           
   ...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT NORTH OF A LINE                  
      FROM FT GAINES TO OCILLA.                                                 
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM ALL MARINE ZONES.                           
MRV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN...MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT INCLUDE            
MIN TEMPS AND HIGH CLOUDS.                                                      
SFC HI PRES RDG ACRS WRN GRT LAKES REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY               
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER UPR MI. IR LOOP SHOWED SOME            
THIN HIGH CLOUDS NUDGING INTO WRN UPR MI WITH UPR LVL MOISTURE                  
SQUEEZED BTWN CUTOFF LO OVER PLAINS AND H5 RDG OVER WRN LAKES. 03Z              
READINGS GENERALLY FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS INLAND TO THE TEENS ALONG             
LK SUPERIOR. CLOUD TRENDS 00Z RUC FCST 300 RH SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL               
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY TO THE EAST...AFFECTING WEST HLF OF UPR               
MI. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIN CI DECK TO HAVE ONLY SLIGHT IMPACT                    
RADIATIONAL COOLING. 00Z AREA SNDGS AND ETA/RUC FCST SNDGS AGAIN                
INDICATE VERY DRY LLVL MOISTURE PROFILE. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE                   
POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH CURRENT FCST ON TRACK...DO              
NOT PLAN ANY UPDATE.                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1130 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
RESIDUAL LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION NOT MIXING            
OUT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. 3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                   
STRATUS EXTENDING ALONG THE LAKESHORE FROM ABOUT PENTWATER TO SOUTH             
HAVEN... AND OTHER MISC PATCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI. HARD TO            
FIND ANY REAL TREND TO THESE CLOUDS AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS            
TO HOW THEY WILL BEHAVE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC 925 MOISTURE PROG                   
INDICATES THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE LAKESHORE...BUT             
WEAK SYNOPTIC WLY FLOW MAY PUSH THEM INLAND A BIT. UPDATED FCST TO              
GO WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BUT KEPT EVERYTHING ELSE AS IS.                 
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
MAIN PROBLEM ON UPDATE IS THE PERSISTENCE OF LAKE CLDS OVER THE FAR             
ERN COUNTIES IN NW FLOW AHD OF SFC-850 MB RDG. VIS SATL SHOWS REST              
OF UPR SUNNY...CENTERED UNDER RDG AXIS.                                         
12Z SNDGS TO WEST AND SOUTHWEST INDICATE MASSIVE DRYING AND                     
SUBSIDENCE REACHING NR SFC WHILE APX SNDG SHOWS SUBSIDENCE INV JUST             
ABV 900 MB WITH TEMP AT BASE OF INV NR -13C. THIS LINGERING COLD AIR            
AROUND 900 MB PRODUCING INSTABILITY LAKE CLDS IN THE EAST.                      
BELIEVE 12Z ETA AND RUC NOT RESOLVING COLDER POCKET OF AIR OVR ERN              
UPR TOO WELL THIS MORNING. THUS...CLDS PERSISTING LONGER THAN                   
EXPECTED. YET...MODEL SNDGS DO INDICATE SUBSIDENCE INV CONTINUING TO            
LWR THRU AFT OVR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH ABUNDANT SUN...EXPECT               
CLDS TO GRADUALLY THIN. WL JUST HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING BACK A FEW                
HRS.                                                                            
MAX TEMPS NR 30 FM PREV FCST APPEAR ON TARGET BASED ON 12Z AREA                 
SNDGS AND FCST GUIDANCE. THUS...WL ONLY UPDATE ERN COUNTIES FOR CLD             
WORDING.                                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1118 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT THE MOMENT...WITH              
INDIVIDUAL CENTERS OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND EAST CENTRAL                      
WISCONSIN.  THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TODAY AND             
OVERNIGHT.  ADVANCING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS               
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY STRUGGLING TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE UPPER                 
RIDGE...AND WE SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT THESE CLOUDS UNTIL                
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NUDGES JUST EAST            
OF THE STATE.  FOR THIS AFTERNOON...RESIDUAL LOW CLOUDS WILL                    
CERTAINLY BE THE CONCERN.                                                       
HARD TO SEE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS ON VISIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST                    
MICHIGAN WITH THE SNOW FIELD IN PLACE...BUT THE CLOUDS ARE READILY              
SEEN ON THE FOG PRODUCT.  PATCHES OF CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE 10             
AM ALONG U.S. 27...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN                 
FAIRLY PERSISTENT OVER THE THUMB AND SAGINAW BAY.  WITH THE 12Z DTX             
SOUNDING SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG INVERSION ABOUT 880MB...AND NOT A              
BIG WARMUP PLANNED FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MIX OUT THESE                
CLOUDS.  THE 06Z MESOETA AND 12Z RUC ACTUALLY CONTINUE WITH                     
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON OVER THE             
THUMB...WITH THIS MOISTURE PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST LATE THIS                    
AFTERNOON COURTESY OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  THE 06Z MESOETA             
ALSO INDICATED A HINT OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO            
THE FAR WEST PART OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SAY              
FROM OWOSSO TO ADRIAN...BEFORE SWINGING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE             
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTH AND AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW                   
DEVELOPS.  WITH THE SMATTERING OF CLOUDS OCCURRING...AND THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR MORE TO DEVELOP OR MOVE IN EVEN FROM THE EAST OVER                
LAKE ERIE...WILL CALL FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY IN MOST OF SOUTHEAST               
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  THOSE IN THE THUMB LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE             
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS BEFORE THE CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH LATER IN            
THE DAY.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING FOR THE REST OF THE                   
AFTERNOON WITH THE DTX SOUNDING NOT SUPPORTING MUCH MORE THAN THE               
MID 20S.  THANKS TO THE CLOUDS...PHN HAS RISEN TO 27 AS OF 11 AM...             
BUT THE CLIMB SHOULD BE LIMITED THERE...TOO.  MID 20S SHOULD WORK               
NICELY...WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THAT IN THE COLD               
AND WARM SPOTS...RESPECTIVELY.                                                  
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
DJF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1000 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THIS TIME THU AT MOST                
LOCATIONS...SO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS LOOK IN BALLPARK.  DRY SELY FLOW            
AROUND STATIONARY HIGH PRES KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC                
LIFT TO SOUTH.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SLIGHTLY MORE HIGH                
LEVEL RH INTO SWRN PORTIONS WHICH TIES INTO LATEST SATELLITE                    
IMAGERY.  WL ONLY UPDATE SW ZONES FOR NOW.                                      
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
907 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
...ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE ICE BOX...                                              
TRENDS IN THE SFC AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT RADIATIONAL                  
COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED AGAIN TONIGHT. A SECONDARY SFC HIGH PRES              
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED OVER ESTRN NC...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE                
LARGE SNOW PACK TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS LGT-CALM AND                  
REINFORCE THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 10-15 F            
RANGE. THE 00Z MHX SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY...INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE              
SCALE SUSBSIDENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE WEDGE OF DRY AIR             
IS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY AS THE LARGE AREA OF AC OVR SC HAS NOT MADE            
ANY PROGRESS NE. SOME CI IS STREAMING IN...BUT IT TOO WAS THINNING.             
RUC AND MESO-ETA RH FIELDS MATCH UP WELL WITH THESE OBSERVED TRENDS.            
SO WILL OPT FOR A MSTLY CLR FCST TONIGHT ALL BUT EXTREME SRN ZONES.             
WILL BREAK OUT A RANGE FOR MINS OVERNIGHT WITH BOTTOM END A CATEGORY            
BELOW CURRENT FCST.                                                             
DO NOT HAVE MUCH TO ADD TO 3-4TH PERIOD FCST DILEMMA BUT FEEL THAT              
FCST OF A WINTRY MIX TO ALL RAIN ON SUNDAY LOOKS GOOD. AMOUNT OF QPF-           
DURATION OF ZR/PL MAIN QUESTIONS FOR MID SHIFT (AND HOPEFULLY) THE              
00Z GUIDANCE TO ANSWER. STAY TUNED.                                             
BASED ON SFC PATTERN AND TREND IN MARINE OBS...A FEW TWEAKS TO THE              
FCST ARE IN ORDER. WILL BRING WINDS SPEEDS DOWN ABOUT 5 KNOTS                   
ACROSS THE BOARD AS THE SFC HIGH HAS DECREASED P-GRAD. ALSO WILL                
CHANGE DIR NRN WATERS TO NW VS N.                                               
MHX...NONE.                                                                     
ELARDO                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
ISSUED BY NWS COLUMBIA SC                                                       
1000 AM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                     
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD AND DRY HI PRES AT SFC BUILDING OVER THE                
CAROLINAS. VIS SHOWS MID LEVEL CLDS BLANKETING THE AREA. RUC KEEPS              
HIGH MID LEVEL RH THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT FCST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD              
AND WILL LET STAND PRETTY MUCH AS IS.                                           
.GSP...WINTER STORM WATCH NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-                       
SCZ001>007-010>012-047-GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.                              
CAMMARATA                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
300 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COVERAGE OF FOG...              
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR PICTURES SHOWS SNOW HAS COME TO                     
AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  STRATUS DECK IS MOVING EASTWARD               
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS                    
REMAINING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AHEAD OF WEAK                 
SHORTWAVE ROTATING DOWN BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS.  FOG IS FILLING IN BEHIND CLEARING...AND EXPECT THIS            
TREND TO CONTINUE OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE                
MORNING. QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE WILL IT BE FOR THIS MORNING           
AND WILL IT WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  AS OF 09Z...JUST ENOUGH              
WRAP AROUND STRATUS AND WEAK WEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE                    
ACCORDING TO VAD AND GRANADA PROFILER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING             
WIDESPREAD.  WILL WATCH THIS EVOLUTION AS ZONE ISSUANCE TIME                    
APPROACHES AND WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY LAST MINUTE DECISIONS. FOR               
NOW...EXPECT THAT AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE SHOULD                   
SUFFICE...AND MAY MENTION DENSE AT TIMES.  OTHERWISE...LXV STILL                
REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW...PROBABLY A COMBINATION OF WEAK DYNAMICS             
AND WEAK UPSLOPE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.                                             
TODAY...WEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR OUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WITH             
RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE SLOSHING OUT SOMETIME BETWEEN 15            
AND 18Z.  SO FINALLY EXPECT TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON.                
OTHERWISE...MAY HAVE TO HANG ON TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN ZONES 58 AND           
59 MAINLY THIS MORNING DUE TO NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME                   
LINGERING MOISTURE. FWC TEMPS LOOK TO COOL EVEN WITH FOR SNOW                   
COVERED AREAS AND PLAN TO GO ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER FOR MOST                   
LOCATIONS.                                                                      
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW                    
LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  A COUPLE OF WEAK             
SHORTWAVES...ONE ROTATING DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST WY INTO NORTHWEST              
COLORADO TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER UNDER-CUTTING UPPER RIDGE TO OUR                 
SOUTH INTO SUNDAY WILL NOT BRING MUCH AFFECT EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME MID            
AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT COLD TEMPS                     
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP                 
TONIGHT MOSTLY OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS...HOWEVER WITH WESTERLY FLOW             
ALOFT IT MAY BE MORE PATCHY IN NATURE.  PLAN TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE             
ZONES FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.  GOOD                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR COLD TEMPS               
AGAIN TONIGHT. THEN A REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...WITH FWC TEMPS              
STILL LOOKING TOO COOL.                                                         
EXTENDED...                                                                     
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE PICTURE MOVES IN OFF THE WEST COAST INTO            
WESTERN COLORADO ON MONDAY.  MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE AVN SHOWS A           
PRETTY THICK MOIST LAYER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDING DECENT                   
UPSLOPE TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.  I WONDER HOW OVERDONE THIS                 
MOISTURE MIGHT BE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MRF/ECMWF               
KEEPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICK MOVING EXITING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT           
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  MOST OF THE                  
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED             
TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO KEEPING             
THE PLAINS UNDER A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN. CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD AND           
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.                                                           
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
KT                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
153 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER MIDWEST ROTATING WEAK VORT LOBES OVER CENTRAL              
ROCKIES CAUSING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.                    
SATELLITE SHOWS THESE DISSIPATING AND SLIDING SLOWLY EAST AS PER RUC            
MODEL. MAIN MODELS PROJECTING RELATIVELY DRY RIDGE OVER CWA SAT BEING           
QUICKLY UNDERCUT SAT NGT AND SUN BY REMNANTS OF SYSTEM NOW                      
APPROACHING SRN CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY           
AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON WRN CO/ERN UT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AZ/NM.             
SLOW THICKNESS INCREASES IN ALL MODELS WITH LITTLE CLD COVER SHOULD             
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND.                                     
END OF AVN AND MIDRANGE MODELS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS ON NEXT REGIONAL             
WEATHER CHANGE BEGINNING FIRST OF THE WEEK. STRONG JET TO CARRY WET             
BUT RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM ASHORE SUNDAY...REACHING ERN UT BY SUN NGT           
AND WRN CO MON MORNING. THEN SEVERAL DISTURBANCE KEEP PCPN IN THE               
FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SO WILL BE CHANGING THAT                 
TONIGHT. FROM MON THRU FRI THE FLOW APPEARS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN                 
ZONAL AND WET.    CUOCO                                                         
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
315 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
...SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SRN LOWER BY NOON SUNDAY...                              
MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.                   
ACTUALLY THE AVN HAS DONE THE BEST OF THE CONTINUITY OF THE SFC AND             
UPPER AIR SYSTEM ASSOC WITH THIS SRN STREAM STORM SYSTEM.  EVEN                 
SO... THE AVN PRECIPITATION FIELDS LEAVE A LOT TO BE DESIRED. 00Z               
ETA PRECIPITATION FCST FOR 06Z DID THE BEST OF THE RUC...NGM...AVN              
AND ETA (SINCE SNOW WAS FALLING OVER CTNL IOWA AND ONLY THE ETA                 
REALLY FORECAST THAT.  SO NGM PCPN THROWN OUT AS OBNOXIOUS! ALSO THE            
AVN BRINGS THE PCPN INTO LWR MI TO FAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR             
FEEDING INTO THE LWR MI SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE EAST...THEN MOVES IT              
OUT TO FAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY CONSIDERING THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM              
IS STILL TO OUR SOUTH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY AND THERE IS STILL                 
DEEP  MOISTURE AROUND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON (ON THE AVN).  THE DRY              
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST IS A TYPICAL PROBLEM.  THE SYSTEM                   
DOES HAVE OVER 1/2 INCH PWAT ASSOC WITH IT AND THE ISENTROPIC METHOD            
WOULD SUGGEST 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. WITH 30 40 KNOTS             
OF 850 INFLOW FROM THE GULF... THIS WILL OVERCOME THAT PROBLEM OVER             
MOST OF THE CWA BY MID DAY SUNDAY.  GIVEN MI WILL BE IN THE COLD                
CONVEYER BELT AREA OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO BE IN THE DEFORMATION                 
ZONE... WITH REASONABLE Q-G FORCING TO BOOT... COULD SEE 2 TO 4                 
INCHES I-94 AREA SUNDAY AND 1 TO 3 INCHES I-94 TO I-96.  AREAS NORTH            
OF THAT WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE BAND MOVES NWD AND DISSIPATES           
OVER NRN 1/3 OF LWR MI SUN AFTERNOON.                                           
TILL THEN...INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO            
OUR EAST AND THE MOISTURE SLOWLY DEEPENS.  NRN AREAS WILL HAVE                  
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING... INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON.              
HIGHS NEAR MOS.  TONIGHT... MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE AND WILL HAVE              
LOWS NEAR MOS N AND ABOVE MOS SOUTH DUE TO THICK CLOUDS MOVING IN.              
COORDINATION WITH DTX AND APX.                                                  
ZONES BY 345 AM.                                                                
WDM                                                                             
EXTENDED DISCUSSION                                                             
AVN/MRF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE ODD                
MODEL OUT. LOOKS LIKE SW LWR WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR THE BULK OF            
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW MOVG UP THE EAST COAST WILL NOT BE A PLAYER            
IN OUR WX. HOWEVER, THE UPR LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL OVER               
THE ERN LAKES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY                 
SUNDAY NITE/MON MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW SUN NITE BUT             
LES SHOULDN'T BE A FACTOR WITH H8 TEMPS ONLY AROUND -8C. UPR RIDGE              
OVER THE PLAINS WILL KEEP A GENERAL DRY NW FLOW OVER THE REGION                 
MON-WED. SFC HIGH WILL BE OVER SW LOWER MONDAY AND TUES AND MOST OF             
WED BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SPREADS WAA CLOUDS OUR WAY LATE WED.                
WILL NOT CHANGE THE FCST MUCH. GOING TEMP FCST LOOKS OK.                        
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
342 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
THE SECOND DAY OF CRNT MULTI DAY SNOWFALL EVENT IS BECMG A TEAM                 
EFFORT IN TERMS OF NUMBER OF SMALL CONTRIBUTIONS FM VARIETY OF                  
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS OF 0830 UTC 88-D INDICATES SVRL AREAS OF -SN             
ARND CWA. FIRST IN WRN ZNS ENHANCEMENT INCRG ALG STATE LN FM                    
ATCHISON KS SWRD THRU KC METRO AND ALG HIGHWAY 71 TO BUTLER. 0600               
UTC RUC DATA SUGGESTS WEAK AREA OF H7-H5 FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALG              
AXIS OF MID LVL CAA. ALL MODELS BRING AXIS OF AFOREMENTIONED                    
FRONTOGENESIS ACR WRN CWA BY 1800 UTC. TEMPTED TO FINESE FCST BY                
GOING WITH SN THIS AM THEN NO PCPN OR JUST FLURRIES THIS PM. HOWEVER            
WITH ANY BRKS IN SC DECK LAPSE RATES STEEP ENOUGH TO IGNITE LCL                 
CNVTV SNOWFALLL. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY POP ALL DAY WITH ADDITIONAL              
INCH ACCUMULATION PSBL. THINK THAT NW MO CAN GET BY WITH CHC POP FOR            
-SN AND LTL ACCUMULATION.                                                       
ACR ERN ZNS WILL GO WITH SN ADVSY FOR TDY AND TNGT. ALL MODELS FCST             
PERSISTANT ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THIS EVNG. ETA MVS AREA OF H3 DVRGNC            
NWRD WITH SW FLW ALG E SIDE OF UPR LO WHICH SHLD ENHANCE PCPN.                  
LATEST 88-D RETURNS SHW ENHANCEMENT ALG AND S OF 50 HIGHWAY WITH                
THIS FEATURE. MOST LOCATIONS ALREADY HAVE 1-3" ON THE GROUND AND                
VARIOUS EMPIRICAL RULES SUGGEST AN ADDITONAL 2" TDY. SO WILL POST               
3-5" TOTAL ENDNING TNGT.                                                        
INHERITED DRY FCST FOR TNGT AND SUN IN W. EVEN TOUGH FRONTOGENTIC               
FORCING AXIS FCST TO BE E OF ERN KS/WRN MO THIS EVNG WITH MENTIONED             
LAPSE RATES STILL CONCERNED ABT -SNSH ACTIVITY. MOST LIKELY WILL NOT            
INSERT POPS BUT WILL INSERT FLURRIES. MID TROPOSPHERIC WAA IN W ON              
SUN PORTENDS WELL FOR DRY FCST. IN E WILL BOOST POPS TNGT INTO                  
LIKELY CATEGORY AS MODELS SUGGEST H7H3 CNVGNC OF Q-VECT LINGERING               
OVR NE MO. WILL KEEP LO POP IN E FOR SUN DUE TO PSBL CNVTV -SNSH                
UNDR UPR LO.                                                                    
WITH MOD TO STG CAA IN W AND SN THRU MUCH OF DAY IN E DO NOT XPCT               
MUCH TEMP RISE. WILL MOST LIKELY USE TEMPS HOLDING ARND 20 IN W AND             
20-25 E. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN BALLPARK AND WILL NOT STRAY FAR FM THRU              
FCST PRD. QUICK PEAK AT 0000 UTC SEF CAN PSBL WAA PCPN EVENT ARND               
MIDWEEK. WILL MAKE NO CHGS.                                                     
THANKS STL/TOP FOR COORDINATION                                                 
.EAX...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...SN ADVSY TDY AND TNGT ZNS 7-8-16-17-24-25-32-33-39-40-45-46-54             
BODNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

NORTHEAST OREGON/SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR                                           
230 PM PST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND NORTH                   
CENTRAL OREGON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED THIS EVENING            
AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS            
OVER SE WASHINGTON...ACCORDING TO THE RUC MODEL.  EVENING SHIFT MAY             
NEED TO ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE             
FOG WILL BE.  MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE             
MOUNTAINS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOST PLACES DOWN TO SINGLE DIGITS.                 
LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                  
NIGHT.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AND             
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON               
SUNDAY.  12Z RUNS DIFFER ON POSITION OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY AT THE             
SURFACE AND 850MB. ETA IS SLOWEST AND IS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE                 
SURFACE LOW.  OVERALL EFFECT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT FOR THE FORECAST                
AREA.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW              
IN CENTRAL OREGON.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF               
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL ADD A GHOST PERIOD TO THE EXTENDED.              
MODELS DO NOT SHOW STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND OVERRUNNING MOISTURE SO            
PRECIPIATION WILL FALL AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AND                 
SHOULD BE LIGHT.  THE TROUGH WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE FOR THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN AND               
SNOW.  SMITH                                                                    
PDT 0001  ALW 0001  PSC 0001  YKM 0001                                          
.KPDT...WSR-88D...VCP 32/CSR 21...DOWN FOR PREVENTATIVE MAINTENANCE.            
.KPDT...NONE.                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   or                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
925 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
NOT A LOT OF NEW INFORMATION YET. MESOETA LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z             
ETA. 21Z RUC IS FARTHERST S WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BY 09Z. SOME               
HIGH CLDS HAVE MOVED INTO NW NC...EXPECT AC TO ARRIVE IN SW HALF OF             
CWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. LYH DROPPED OFF QUICKLY AT SUNSET. LYH/DAN/MTV              
ARE COLDER NOW THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT SO WL DROP LOWS IN THESE               
AREAS. NO CHANGES TO REST OF FCST.                                              
.RNK                                                                            
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY                                
NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ           
042>045                                                                         
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY                                            
200 PM MST FRI JAN 28 2000                                                      
WV IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW UPPER VORTEX MOVG SE INTO NERN CO.  SFC HI              
BLDG OVR SWRN WY.  CONDITIONS ATTM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY XCPT IN               
FAR EAST WHERE CLOUDS HANGING TUF. STLT SHOWS CLOUDS SLOWLY BRKG UP             
AS UPR SYSTEM MOVES AWAY.                                                       
ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOVING UPPER LOW E ACRS GRT            
PLAINS WHILE BRINGING IN W CST UPR RIDGE AND BLDG SFC HI OVR CWA. H5            
FLO TO BECOME SPLIT AROUND WY HR48-60.  LUKS TO BE A DRY AND                    
SEASONBLY COLD WEEKEND.  GENERALLY FOLLOWING FWC TEMPS THO MAY GO               
COLDER MINS AND SOME MAXES E OF DVD. RIW FWC MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN                
ERRATIC LAST SVRL DAYS AND DONT GIVIT MUCH CREDENCE.                            
XTND...MRF MDL CONTINUES TREND OF SHORT RANGE MDLS AND DEVELOPS                 
OMEGA "BLOCK" OVER NWRN US PLAINS AND SRN CANADA BY SUN/SUN NT WHICH            
DOESNT BLOCK BUT MOVES EAST THRU PD.  MRF DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS               
TIL LAST 2 RUNS.  HAVENT BEEN ABLE TO ACCESS OTHER MDLS...BUT LATEST            
PMDEPD TENDS TO LEAN TOWARD MRF DIGGING NEG TROF OVER WEST COAST AND            
THEN MVG E.  MY CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRSV SPD OF SYSTEMS IS                     
LACKING...BUT WL GNLY FOLLOW MRF WHICH MEANS UNSETTLED WX OVER WRN              
CWA DRG XNTD PD AND GENRLY DRY DOWNSLOPE WX EAST.                               
.RIW...NONE.                                                                    
DZ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wy                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
935 AM EST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEARING S OF KPNS ALONG COLD FRONT...AND              
ALSO NE OF KMGM AHEAD OF WELL-DEFINED UPPER JET STREAK MOVING E OVER            
THE WRN GULF STATES AT THIS TIME. SURFACE DATA SHOW LOW JUST SW OF              
KPNS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING N OVER THE ERN GULF TOWARD OUR COAST.              
THIS CURRENT POSITION OF LOW AND COLD FRONT IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE            
TIMING OF THE MANUAL PROGS FROM LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS. 12Z RUC                
PROGS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF WARM FRONT TODAY WHILE IT LIFTS N             
INTO THE CWA THANKS TO INDIRECT CIRCULATION AHEAD OF APPROACHING JET            
STREAK. LIFT FROM UPPER JET SUPPORT TO BE COMPLEMENTED BY INCREASING            
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...PARTICULARLY OVER NRN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST           
DEEP LAYER RH VALUES RESIDE. RADAR AND METARS ALREADY SUPPORT THIS              
WITH LIGHT RAIN OVER OUR NRN GA ZONES. ALTHOUGH CURRENT TRENDS                  
SUGGEST POPS COULD BE LOWERED OVER SOME OF OUR SRN ZONES...WILL                 
WATCH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS A WHILE LONGER BEFORE ZONE UPDATES             
TO SEE IF WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND APPROACHING JET STREAK CAN INCREASE            
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
MARINE: SURFACE LOW PROGGED BY RUC TO OCCUPY OUR WRN COASTAL WATERS             
BY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS. PENSACOLA SOUTH BUOY            
STILL SHOWS 7 FT SEAS...SO WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR             
WATERS W OF KAQQ.                                                               
INPUT ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                           
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 60 NM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN.                     
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
853 AM MST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
88D SHOWS PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS WK VORT OVR WRN NE DRIFTS S. RUC               
SHOWS SECOND WK WV OVR SE SD MOVING SLOWLY W ALONG WITH ENHANCED CLD            
TOPS ON IR. LEFT -SN OVR ERN ZONES ALONG WITH FG...BUT DROPPED                  
PRECIP TO FLURRIES IN WRN SD AND NONE IN NE WY. WNDS AND TEMPS STILL            
LOOKED IN THE BALL PARK...SO DIDN'T ADJUST THOSE.                               
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
BAILEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
955 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS SOUNDING THIS MORNING                    
INDICATED 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERRIDING THE COLD AIR AT              
THE SURFACE.  RADAR IS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME VERY WEAK                  
RETURNS UNDER 20 DBZ.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOWEVER ARE DRY ENOUGH THAT            
IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE.                 
IF THIS OCCURS WE WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S BECAUSE OF THE                  
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.  THE INCREASE IN RETURNS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE             
TO AN APPROACHING WEAK S/W TROF MOVING EAST ACROSS MEXICO.                      
WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS                    
TIME...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE SOME MIDDLE 40S FOR HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES.  WILL ALSO LOWER WINDS A BIT AS MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS            
WIND SHOULD STAY IN THE 15 KNOT RANGE.  WILL ALSO INCLUDE WORDING OF            
CURRENT WINDCHILLS.                                                             
WILL KEEP THE SCEC UP FOR THE BAY AND OFFSHORE AS BUOY IS STILL IN              
THE 5 FOOT RANGE AND LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOW WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW            
SCA CRITERIA.                                                                   
69                                                                              
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
257 AM CST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  THIS HIGH              
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.  OUR SURFACE               
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY IN RESPONSE TO LOWER                
PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO.  WE WILL WAIT               
UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE ON WHERE TO MENTION LOW CLOUDS                  
AND FOG THIS MORNING.  LATEST RUC SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT               
LEAST MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE PANHANDLES.  NEXT             
SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT PACKS           
AS MUCH PUNCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT.  THE VORTICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM               
ALSO GETS CHANNELED WITHIN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER            
THE PANHANDLES.  SO WE WILL BE TAKING OUT THE LOW POPS THAT WE HAVE             
IN THE FORECAST.  WE WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES...BUT DO NOT             
THINK THAT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT.                  
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE EAST TO                 
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE PANHANDLES            
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM JET.  NEXT             
SHORT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.                
THEN A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND MOVES                 
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS             
LIKE THE PANHANDLES WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY.              
SO WE WILL NOT INSERT PRECIP FOR MONDAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH             
THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF COMES INTO THE COAST STRONGER THAN WHAT IS                
PROGGED.                                                                        
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AS THE UPPER LOW                  
MOVES AWAY AND THE HEIGHTS START TO RISE OVER THE PANHANDLES.                   
A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER                                                         
DHT 35/16 46/20 49 000                                                          
AMA 36/18 45/21 48 000                                                          
BVR 33/14 40/19 47 000                                                          
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
GOEHRING                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
245 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2000                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE -- RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.                      
CURRENTLY -- WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH            
THE POLAR JET LOCATED OVER NRN CANADA AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET              
OVER THE SRN STATES. AN UPPER LOW BETWEEN THESE TWO JETS IS VERY                
SLOWLY TRANSLATING E. EXIT REGION OF STRONG EWD-MOVING JET STREAK IS            
CURRENTLY OVER MS/AL. THIS FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN WELL REPRESENTED BY             
THE MODELS.                                                                     
RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO OUR COASTAL             
WATERS ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW SE OF KPNS. THERE            
IS ALSO AN AREA OF RAIN OVER OUR NRN ZONES IN AREA OF BEST LOW-LEVEL            
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER JET SUPPORT. MANY METAR STATIONS OVER OUR             
CWA ARE REPORTING BR AND SEEING POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AS WARM              
FRONT E OF LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT N.                                             
--FORECAST--                                                                    
TONIGHT - WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING N THROUGH CWA WHILE UPPER            
VORT LOBE ROTATES NE AROUND UPPER LOW AWAY FROM CWA. LATEST RUC                 
CONFINES PRECIPITATION TO COASTAL WATERS IN WARM SECTOR AND IN NRN              
GA ZONES N OF LIFTING WARM FRONT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGHEST POPS              
OVER NRN ZONES...WITH MENTION OF FOG MANY AREAS.                                
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT - SURFACE LOW TO STRETCH NE WHILE COLD FRONT                
PUSHES THROUGH AREA. WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG IN WAKE              
OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT A VERY GRADUAL W-E DECREASE IN CLOUDS THROUGH THE         
DAY...WITH ERN ZONES LIKELY STAYING CLOUDY ALL DAY. A SECONDARY COLD            
FRONT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD FINALLY DRY OUT LOWER LEVELS.                       
MONDAY - AM THINKING ABOUT LEFTOVER POPS EARLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...          
FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS. AGREE WITH GUIDANCE ON MAKING THIS               
DAY COLDER THAN SUNDAY FOR EASTERN ZONES.                                       
MARINE - SURFACE LOW HAS ALREADY WEAKENED WINDS OVER OUR COASTAL                
ZONES...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. AS THE PENSACOLA            
BUOY SHOWS WINDS AND SEAS STILL TRENDING DOWN...WILL KEEP EXERCISE              
CAUTION MENTIONED TONIGHT FOR FIRST PERIOD FOR OUTER WATERS W OF                
KAQQ. NEXT CHANCE FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.              
EXTENDED -- (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) AFTER BRIEF RESPITE FROM            
MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG NEXT                
BATCH OF UPPER SUPPORT TO COME WITH AMPLIFYING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH THAT SHOULD CROSS CWA WED AND EXIT THURSDAY. WILL KEEP                   
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR END OF EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE              
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.                                             
THANKS FOR COORDINATION FFC. ADDITIONAL INPUT IS WELCOME.                       
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
TLH  054/061 038/058  551-                                                      
PFN  057/064 042/056  421-                                                      
DHN  048/054 034/051  43--                                                      
ABY  043/054 035/051  5421                                                      
VLD  051/066 038/054  5421                                                      
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl