FXUS04 KWBC 130727 PAA
QPFPFD

 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
326 AM EDT WED OCT 13 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 14/1200 UTC THRU OCT 15/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

 
DAY 1...

...OH VLY INTO THE MID ATLC STATES...

MDLS RMN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVG THE LWR OH VLY H5
CLOSED LOW ENEWD THIS PD..WHILE OPENING IT UP..AS THE UPSTREAM
NRN STREAM SYS DIGS SSEWD INTO THE PLAINS.   THE H85 FLO HAS
TURNED TO WLY/WSWLY ACRS MUCH OF THE GULF CST STATES EVEN
AHD OF THIS SYS..SO GULF MSTR IS RAPIDLY GETTING CUT-OFF INTO THIS
FEATURE.   ATLC INFLO OF MSTR WON'T BE THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYS EITHER..AS ONLY VRY WK 2NDRY SFC DVLPMNT IS XPCD VCNTY OF
THE DELMARVA LT IN THE PD.     GIVEN THIS TREND OF LESS MSTR
AVBLTY..ESP AS COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO..XPC RNFL AMTS
WITH THIS PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF TO BE LGT TO MDT AT BEST..WITH ONE
RELATIVE RNFL MAX LIKELY NR WHAT RMNS OF THE OPENING UP CNTR
MAINLY THRU WV..WITH ANOTHER RNFL MAX PSBL NERN NC NNEWD INTO
THE DELMARVA..WHERE SOME OF THE MODEST ATLC INFLO OF MSTR
DOES GET TAPPED.    THE ETA AND GFS QPFS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING
WHERE THESE "RELATIVE" RNFL MAXES WL BE..BUT THE OVERALL LGTR
ETA AMTS ARE PREFERRED..GIVEN THE SYS IS WKNG AND THE MSTR IS
LESSENING.

...TX...

AS PER THE PMDHMD..WE PREFER THE STGR GFS SOLN CONCERNING THE
NRN STREAM SYS NOW DIGGING SSEWD THRU THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS.    THE MAIN DIFF THIS PD  BTWN THE PREFERRED GFS SOLN AND
THE ETA SOLN IS THAT THE FNTL PASSAGE OFF THE TX CST IS JUST A LTL
SLOER IN THE GFS..AND THERE IS A LTL MORE SFC LOW DVPMNT ALG THIS
FNT IN THE GFS SOLN.   THE SLGTLY SLOER GFS SOLN ALSO ALLOWS
MORE MSTR TO POOL ALG THE BNDRY AS IT PASSES THRU SERN TX.    IN
GENL..HAVE LEANED TWDS THE GFS HERE..AND GIVEN THE STG LOW LVL
CNVGNC XPCD VCNTY OF THE FNT..POOLING OF PWS TO ABV 1.50 INCHES
VCNTY OF THE FNT..AND RT ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS..XPC
THERE TO BE QUICK AND LCLY HVY CNVCTN DVLPMNT LT IN THE PD FM
VCNTY OF THE BIG BEND EWD TO OFF THE CNTRL/UPR TX CST.    SOME
GTR THAN 1 INCH RNFL AMTS LIKELY..ESP CLOSER TO THE TX CST.    

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLAINS..CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...

STG MID LVL DYNAMICS/HGT FALLS WITH THE DIGGING H5 TROF OVR THE
CNTRL STATES WL SUPPORT CONTD POST FNTL PCPN THRUOUT THIS
REGION..WITH A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLO AIDING RNFL
POTNL.    HOWEVER..MSTR WL BE QUITE SPARSE AND SYS WL BE A FAST
MOVR..SO XPC MOST RNFL AMTS TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE.

 
DAY 2...

...GRT LAKES/NORTHEAST...

SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE MID-ATL REGION
WL BE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY INVOF THE GRT LAKES
REGION AND SHD LEAD TO A DEEPENING SFC LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE
UPR OH VLY AND ACRS THE ERN LAKES AREA. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE
SFC LOW MORE DIRECTLY ASSOC WITH THE FMR SRN STREAM MID LVL
S/WV WL BE LIFTING JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. XPCT A
RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED AREA OF LGT TO MDT RAIN AND PERHAPS
SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACRS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND JUST
INLAND. THE ETA AND GFS DESPITE THEIR TIMING DIFFS BOTH AGREE IN
PULLING 1.25 INCH PWS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH MDT H8 THETA-E
ADVECTION. XPCT THEIR TO BE SOME TYPE OF DEFORMATION ZONE
ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL TROF TOO WHICH WL BE LIFTING NWD. THE
BETTER MID/UPR LVL FORCING THOUGH WL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/NRN GRT LAKES REGION AS NRN STREAM
HEIGHT FALLS DROP SEWD AND A NEW CLOSED LOW BECOMES DOMINANT.
MANUAL PROGS. MOIST DEEP LYR CYCLONIC FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS
SHD KEEP A BROAD THREAT OF SHWRS ACRS THE ENTIRE GRT LAKES
AREA. THEIR WL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT LOCALLY. PCPN AMTS FRM
THE GRT LAKES AREA EWD INTO THE NORTHEAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GFS
SOLN WHICH HAS A MORE ORGANIZED SFC LOW ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. XPCT 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH AMTS ALONG COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND WITH MAINLY UNDER A 0.25 INCH INLAND AND OVR THE LAKES
REGION WHERE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WL BE LESS
ORGANIZED.

...SERN STATES...

ALL EYES WL BE ON A POWERFUL S/WV WHICH THE GFS MDL HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW DROPPING THRU THE MS VLY AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER WITH
HEIGHT FALLS AND SUPPORTS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WRN GULF OF MEX
BEFORE THEN MOVG THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST/SRN APPALACHIANS.
THE GFS DEPICTS A BAND OF VRY STG THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION
DEVELOPING ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE STG
MID/UPR LVL DYNAMICS. SRLY H8 FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 50
KTS ACRS THE ERN GULF AND STREAKING INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST
JUST AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND PWS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE UP TO NR
1.75 INCHES WITHIN THE NOSE OF 50 KT FLOW. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WL BECOME VRY IMPRESSIVE AND MUCH OF THIS WL BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH OPTIMAL UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF SUCH STG MOISTURE ADVECTION/H8
FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS SHD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STG
CONVECTIVE BAND WITH VRY HVY RAINFALL RATES WHICH SHD SWEEP
THRU THE ERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. 

MEANWHILE VRY STG DEFORMATION FORCED RAINFALL WL BE NOTED
INVOF THE TN VLY BUT THERE WL NOT BE NEARLY AS HIGH PWS HERE.
THIS WL BE MOVG NEWD INTO THE APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE PD AS THE
DEEP LYR TROF BECOMES NEG-TILTED WHICH WL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
UVVS AND TAP MORE MOISTURE FRM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH TIME.

MANUAL PROGS LEAN HEAVILY TWD THE SLOWER/WETTER GFS SOLN.
XPCT A BROAD AREA OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH RAINFALL AMTS WITH ISOLATED
AMTS PERHAPS TO NR 2 INCHES.

...E SLOPES OF NRN ROCKIES...

A POLAR FRONT WL BECOME DRAPED ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS PD AS
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS SWD INTO THE PLAINS. THE ETA AND GFS
BOTH SHOW A FAIR AMT OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WITH
SOME S/WV ENERGY SHEARING SEWD ALONG THE BNDRY FRM SWRN
CANADA. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A BAND OF RELATIVELY
ENHANCED MOISTURE WL BE IN PLACE FOR A CHILLY RAIN TO DEVELOP
AND SOME SNOW ACRS THE HIER TERRAIN. THE ETA AND GFS BOTH A
BAND OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH AMTS ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS JUST E OF THE
DIVIDE. TOOK AN ETA/GFS BLEND OF QPF FOR THIS AREA.

...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY...

XPCT SOME LGT WARM ADVECTION RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW
ACRS THE UPR MS VLY AS ADDITIONAL HEIGHT FALLS PLUNGE SEWD INTO
PLAINS THIS PD. THE ETA AND GFS SUPPORT SOME PCPN AMTS UP TO NR A
0.25 INCH ACRS NRN MN WHICH WL BE WHERE SOME OF THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER LYR MOISTURE WL BE FOUND. OVERALL THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL LOW CENTER WL BE TO
THE NORTH IN CANADA THIS PD. MANUAL PROGS FAVOR AN ETA/GFS
BLEND OF QPF HERE. 

TERRY/ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
 0.01 548997 548988 547982 544973 539963 536959 529955 521956 
      516956 511958 503961 498964 491969 482982 473995 468002 
      463009 460014 455021 453032 453038 456042 458045 462047 
      467050 475051 480055 485060 488063 490068 494074 500078 
      509072 514094 518101 522103 525104 532101 537094 541087 
      544078 546062 547052 546042 544028 542017 545008 548997 
 0.01 503897 519862 522841 515812 502810 484804 469798 454788 
      438775 418751 401719 392708 377701 365708 355721 344736 
      325753 318764 326783 345812 354836 360860 365872 371878 
      381883 388887 395897 394906 373916 350919 321921 309912 
      300905 296899 292896 287896 284899 279906 276920 268948 
      265982 264000 265009 266018 268025 272034 281045 288058 
      296068 306079 312084 317087 319089 324088 328084 330077 
      331072 330068 327060 329059 332060 334064 338072 344076 
      347078 352078 357074 367073 370073 371076 372079 375082 
      377082 381079 385075 387076 388081 390082 392081 395076 
      399072 402071 406072 413075 418071 424075 429073 434076 
      440077 448080 451081 453081 453076 448069 441066 433064 
      429061 427057 417047 415044 413039 415028 414024 412020 
      408015 404009 402004 401999 401993 402990 406981 410976 
      415971 423966 430962 438958 446953 459945 473934 485923 
      495910 503897 
 0.01 538186 536183 532180 530174 528168 525164 522164 516165 
      513166 509165 505164 502168 505183 506188 508192 511194 
      516201 516205 518209 521211 524211 527213 529217 532217 
      534215 535210 536201 538191 538186 
 0.25 421793 420782 416773 407762 399750 394735 388729 380732 
      374740 365745 357745 349749 343764 342773 345782 352795 
      359809 362819 363824 365830 369836 374841 380843 385845 
      390844 395844 399842 402838 407831 409824 412817 417812 
      419807 421801 421793 
 0.25 381050 380046 378040 376036 374030 371026 368024 365026 
      364033 364040 363045 361051 365051 368050 372051 378053 
      381050 
 0.25 310968 311961 310955 305946 297928 292919 289920 287923 
      284931 281940 278957 277968 276979 276988 277001 278010 
      281020 284024 287024 290023 295016 300010 305003 309994 
      310984 310968 
 0.50 398768 397765 396765 394762 393759 391758 391760 391764 
      393767 395767 397768 399770 398768 
 0.50 388823 394822 399822 402819 404806 404796 403794 400794 
      391796 383800 377807 374812 373820 378823 384823 388823 
 0.50 370791 373778 375771 373763 366755 361758 356765 354776 
      356784 358789 362794 364797 367798 368795 370791 
 0.50 303979 302959 301950 298942 294935 291932 286937 284942 
      282949 282956 281972 281988 281997 283006 286009 292008 
      299997 301991 303982 303979 
 1.00 297961 296951 294946 292943 288944 286955 285964 285973 
      286979 288983 291984 295973 297961 
 1.50 293962 293954 291953 289956 288967 289971 291970 292968 
      293962  
 
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
 0.00 490019 494981 496946 483903 491850 514816 
 0.01 561974 561963 559953 553939 549931 547923 543916 539909 
      536904 532902 524899 520895 518888 517883 514876 512865 
      511855 511846 510841 512827 514815 516799 517786 515775 
      512767 503757 501753 496750 491747 486747 482747 475748 
      470750 467752 463751 460743 458733 458721 460715 470712 
      476707 481700 484691 485685 486679 485666 483658 480650 
      472634 468628 464623 455615 450612 446610 437609 431610 
      428611 425612 421615 419620 417625 415630 415636 417642 
      413661 404664 400665 395668 387670 380677 376683 374687 
      371691 370697 369703 369708 369716 371724 373735 378747 
      382756 385764 386770 386777 383787 381793 378795 374795 
      371794 365788 353777 345773 337771 325772 313776 303779 
      295779 285779 280779 276778 269778 264779 258780 253783 
      248788 246791 241797 233810 230818 230829 232835 234840 
      239850 244856 251861 257863 259865 258869 258872 258882 
      257888 255892 252902 250913 251923 247930 239944 236953 
      233963 233973 233986 236996 239004 243011 247015 251018 
      259017 267012 275004 279996 288980 296967 305951 312944 
      320942 327941 332942 337943 341944 359949 368951 376952 
      382951 390947 394944 397939 400933 402923 402915 401908 
      397899 399890 400882 401870 401862 399855 397852 393849 
      383846 380844 379840 380832 382827 384820 386814 389810 
      395810 398815 401823 407836 412854 416864 420867 424870 
      431872 439874 444875 447879 448884 448894 447901 444907 
      438915 432924 428932 424942 424949 427957 433964 435971 
      435980 439987 442993 440007 443012 446015 455018 464017 
      473013 479013 485015 495023 500026 504027 511026 514023 
      519020 522017 525015 530011 535010 541010 547011 554006 
      559990 560978 561974 
 0.01 536191 537186 536181 532176 530170 527165 521156 512148 
      508146 503141 497133 492122 488108 484095 479086 471078 
      468072 467068 461056 454049 447042 441032 435024 427017 
      423015 418015 414019 412026 417039 418043 418048 417056 
      419060 421066 424071 428073 431079 437085 435108 449121 
      452125 455130 460135 463133 466135 469140 473145 478145 
      484146 487150 490155 494158 492163 488168 489175 493176 
      497183 503185 508195 525210 529207 531205 532202 536191 
 0.25 537959 537951 535945 531937 523924 520920 516917 510913 
      504911 497910 489913 482918 477924 475928 475933 476946 
      478952 479955 483962 488970 495973 502973 510972 519970 
      528968 536964 537959 
 0.25 464664 458652 453646 448643 443643 440645 434649 431653 
      430661 429667 426680 423684 419687 408691 405693 402697 
      400701 398707 398714 398725 400733 403738 408738 411735 
      413730 414724 418718 420716 432711 437709 441706 446702 
      453692 462685 465682 467678 466674 464664 
 0.25 494792 491784 489781 486778 481776 473776 462782 456784 
      453784 447784 443782 436780 432779 428776 420768 418765 
      416764 413766 412769 412773 415779 420789 427798 430804 
      432808 434816 438820 441821 447820 458815 461815 466817 
      474819 480818 486813 489809 491804 493798 494792 
 0.25 472111 469098 465088 459076 453068 447062 444058 442058 
      440060 439068 441073 449080 453084 455089 459098 464110 
      467113 470114 472111 
 0.25 366823 365818 363816 354817 347817 342815 338810 334807 
      331804 327803 321804 293818 288820 280821 273820 269817 
      258807 254804 248804 243809 241812 241816 240822 243830 
      247837 252841 261846 267847 273851 275852 277856 279865 
      279872 275880 271890 267904 266910 267919 266933 264947 
      263954 264962 266970 268972 272972 277968 281962 286952 
      292940 296928 302914 306903 310896 314891 320889 324891 
      328897 332906 336912 339915 345921 350924 355925 359925 
      364923 369918 373912 376906 376897 377888 377881 375872 
      371866 362841 362834 363830 366823 
 0.50 359826 357823 355823 348823 344822 340819 334814 330812 
      324812 312814 302818 290824 283831 282836 285842 287843 
      286846 286850 286854 286861 287868 287872 282883 278891 
      277901 277913 272933 272944 274950 277952 281949 284945 
      288936 295919 299908 300904 300898 299894 301892 304888 
      309879 316873 320864 325856 328858 331865 336877 337883 
      338890 340898 343904 350909 353910 356908 360903 362899 
      363894 362882 364876 362872 360869 361865 361859 361852 
      359846 356840 356834 359826 
 0.50 260821 259818 258815 257814 256813 254810 253809 251808 
      249808 247809 246810 245812 244814 244818 244821 245822 
      246823 248825 249826 252827 253827 255827 258825 260823 
      260821 
 1.00 291923 291920 290917 288914 288913 285914 285915 283917