AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
900 AM PST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
LITTLE SURFACE FORCING EVIDENT IN WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER NORTHERN CA            
THIS MORNING...WITH PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSED ALONG PACIFIC                        
NORTHWEST/VANCOUVER COASTLINE UNDER CLASSIC COUPLED JET STREAK                  
PATTERN. IN FACT..HAVE YET TO SEE ANY PRESSURE FALLS OF NOTE SOUTH OF           
THE OREGON BORDER. THESE LIGHT WINDS TOGETHER WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD            
COVER WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO PERSIST PAST NOON TODAY. IF                      
PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SLOWS...WILL BE LOOKING AT            
ANOTHER DAY LIKE FRIDAY IN THE LOWER VALLEY...WHERE FOG REFORMS                 
RAPIDLY WITH EVENING COOLING.                                                   
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME...ONLY CHANGE WOULD BE TO RAISE INITIAL SNOW            
LEVELS OVER THE SIERRA/SOUTHERN CASCADES AND SLOW THE LOWERING OF               
SAID LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 8 HOURS. ETA AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS                  
PLOTTED FOR THE SIERRA BOTH INDICATE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS OF 8000              
FEET TODAY...FALLING ONLY TO 6000-7000 FEET THIS EVENING. MOST                  
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF SNOW LEVELS WILL OCCUR..AS THE FLOW VEERS               
SLIGHTLY LATER TONIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING           
HOURS DOWN TO 3000-3500 FEET. THUS...THE NEW 24 HOUR CHANGE IS                  
COVERED WELL IN WSW. SJC                                                        
.STO...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT...FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF SHASTA                 
       COUNTY INCLUDING BURNEY BASIN SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUNTAINS OF              
       NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND FOR THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 291731  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
935 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW JET DIVING INTO BASE OF DEEP UPPER            
TROUGH OVER THE ERN USA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING S INTO NRN                
MS/AL. SURFACE DATA SHOW ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKING RAPID PROGRESS            
INTO OUR NW CWA AT THIS TIME. KMXX WSR-88D INDICATES 35-40 KT NNE               
FLOW BEHIND FRONT WITHIN A FEW KFT AGL...BUT LOCAL METARS STILL IN              
THE 10 KT RANGE. SEE NO NEED TO MODIFY FORECAST WINDS OR                        
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. BRISK WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM            
GETTING TOO LOW TONIGHT...BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS RIPE FOR A                
FREEZE WARNING. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                            
FIRE WEATHER: RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FL ZONES               
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON LOW HUMIDITY CRITERION.                              
MARINE: BASED ON OBSERVED POST-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND RUC             
PROGS...WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ZONES WITH THE              
EXPECTATION THAT WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.              
FEEDBACK ALWAYS WELCOME.                                                        
.TLH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TUE MORNING FOR FL BIG BEND AND                      
       INLAND ZONES OF ERN FL PANHANDLE...                                      
       RED FLAG WARNING FL ZONES TUE AFTN.                                      
TJT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 300222  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
300 PM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
CLD SURG OF AIR DWN LM THIS AFTN HAS STRTD LK SNW IN NWRN IN. VPZ               
RTPNG SNW ATTM WITH SAT/88D IMGRY INDC ANUDR BND BTWN GYY AND VPZ.              
SNW BND ASSOCD WITH N-S SFC RDG ALNG MS RVR. STIL SUM DIFFS IN HNDLG            
MVMT OF HI AND ULTMATLY END OF SNW IN NWRN IN AND SCT CLDS IN CHI.              
NGM APPRS TO BE ODD MAN OUT. ETA/AVN/RUC MV CNTR OF HI TO VCNTY UIN             
BY 06Z SO THAT SFC WNDS RMN NWLY AND KP SNW AND CLDS TO E OF CHI BUT            
IN ERN CTYS IN CWA. BY TUES AM RDG LN NEWD OVR LM WIL PUT END TO SNW.           
AFTR CLD NITE WITH TMPS INTO TEENS SLY FLO TUE WILL PSH MAXS BCK TO             
NR SNSL MRK. DP TROF OFF E CST SLOES EWD MVMT OF H5 RDG AND POSTPNS             
ARVL OF NXT WX SYS TO LT IN WK.                                                 
MOS GDNC CLS AND IN LN WITH CURNT FCSTS.                                        
.CHI...NONE                                                                     
SOMREK                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 292041  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
247 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
LATEST SAT AND 18Z SFC DATA SHOW SW TROF ROTATING ACRS LWR MI WITH              
SFC TROF REFLECTION ALG ORD TO DAY LINE. SC/LK EFFECT SNSH DVLPG                
IN EARNEST BEHIND THIS FTR AS CAA INTENSIFIES. KIWX REF LOOP                    
INDICATING NR 35 DBZ ECHOES ALG MKG TO SBN LINE. RUC MODEL ALG                  
WITH UW AND LAST EVENING MM5 RUN ALL POINTING TO SHORE PARALLEL SNOW            
BAND PERSISTING ALG E SHORE OF LM FOR BETTER PART OF TONIGHT.                   
ALREADY SOME LOCALES IN SW MI/NW IN DOWN TO 1/4SM +SN AT TIMES.                 
12Z MODELS CONT AGREEABLE TREND WITH SYN FTRS THRU FCST PD. PRIMARY             
ISSUE OVERNIGHT ARE POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMS ACRS LAPORTE...BERRIEN AND            
ST JOE IND COUNTIES. WILL RELY ON RUC/UW/MM5 IN SHORT TERM AND                  
ETA/AVN BLEND AFT THAT. LK EFFECT PROGGED TO SHUT OFF AS LOW LVL                
FLW BEGINS TO TURN ANTICYCLONIC BY 12Z TUE BUT UNTIL THEN PERSISTENT            
CVRG PROGGED FM MKG TO SBN THRU 09Z. DROPPING TEMPS AFT SS WILL MAKE            
ROADS MESSY AND FEEL THIS COMBINED WITH XPC GENERAL ACCUMS OF 2-3               
INCHES WITH LOCAL 4 WILL THEN NEED TO HOIST ADVY FOR BERRIEN...                 
LAPORTE...ST JOE IN. FOR TUE...FEEL LK EFFECT CLDS TO HOLD IN BETTER            
PART OF DAY PER TIME HGT CROSS SECTIONS WHICH INDICATE TRAPPED MOIST            
UNDER DROPPING INVERSION. IN ADDITION VRY WK FLW UNDER SFC RIDGE AXIS           
WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY MIXING TO SPEAK OF AND WILL THEREFORE PLAY IT              
PESSIMISTIC. AS SFC RIDGE WORKS E ACRS FA TUE...ROBUST WAA BEGINS TUE           
NIGHT AND CONTS WED. LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF MID LVL CLD DVLPMT IN                 
ASSOCD/W STRONG WAA IN 850-700MB LYR WED WITH 850 TEMPS WARMING ABV             
0. SUBSTANTIAL MIXING PROGGED AS WELL AND TEMPS TO WARM CONSIDERABLY            
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF CLD CVR. THERMAL RIDGE CONTS TO BUILD INTO EARLY            
PART OF THE EXTDD AS PROGRESSIVE EPAC TROF THIS AM MARCHES E INTO               
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MED RANGE MODELS CONT TO DISPLAY SIG                   
DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYS. CLIMATOLOGY WOULD DICTATE WKNG           
LEAD SW TO AFFECT AREA LATE THU-FRI WITH POTENTIALLY MORE SIG SYS               
SAT-SUN TIME FRAME DEPENDENT UPON HOW SYS EVOLVES/TRACKS. WIL BEAR              
WATCHING.                                                                       
GUIDANCE TEMPS CLOSE FIRST HALF WITH NGM SOMEWHAT COOLER LTR HALF.              
WILL SIDE AGAIN WITH FAN AS IT HAS NOT DONE TOO BAD LATELY. WORK                
ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                              
.IWX...LE SNOW ADVY TONIGHT FOR MIZ077...INZ003>004.                            
TEH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIND 291930  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
809 PM MST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
ATTM LOW LVL CLOUD COVER CONTS TO DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS                
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THE LATEST RUC DOES HINT AT A RETURN OF                 
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT THEREFORE...I WILL LEAVE THE              
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACRS ALL ZONES. ALSO...WITH TMPS ACRS ALL ZONES           
IN THE LOWER 30S ALREADY...AND WITH THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OF                  
TONIGHT...I HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TMPS ACRS ALL ZONES. THE REMAINDER           
OF THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.                                               
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
VPAPOL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KICT 292137  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1115 AM MST (1215 PM CST) MON NOV 29 1999                                       
WL HAVE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLD COVER BASED ON LATEST              
SATL TRENDS AND LATEST RUC/MESOETA/ETA. CLEARING OF STRATUS IS                  
OCCURRING FM SE TO NW WITH LTL TO NO CHANGE IN CONDITIONS OVR THE               
NW HALF OF CWFA. FOG IS EVEN HANGING ON STILL IN NW HALF AS WELL.               
THIS A LTL DIFFERENT FM CURRENT PACKAGE. SE PTN OF CWFA LOOKS IN                
GOOD SHAPE SO WL MAKE LTL IF ANY CHANGE THERE WHERE WARMEST TEMPS AND           
MOST SUN WL BE. SO WL HAVE BCMG MSUNNY SE. THEN WL HAVE FOG EARLY               
AND BCMG PTSUN TO MCLDY NRN AND WRN SECTIONS AND LWR TEMPS ANYWHERE             
FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES.                                                           
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGLD 290914  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1053 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
CURRENT APX RADAR DATA SHOWING A ONCE DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW             
BAND CROSSING INTO NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... HAS NOW BECOME A WELL            
ORGANIZED BAND EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF NAUBINWAY IN SOUTHERN               
MACKINAC COUNTY TO LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY TO GRAYLING. THIS LAKE EFFECT            
SNOW BAND HAS AN EMBEDDED AREA OF 28 DBZ OR GREATER RETURNS THAT IS 70          
NM LONG AND 8 NM MILES WIDE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.            
RECENT SPOTTER SNOWFALL REPORTS AROUND LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY SHOWED               
SNOWFALL RATES TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR WITH EVENING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS        
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE LATEST MESO ETA AND RUC            
DATA SUGGEST ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS OF GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS...        
WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 6000 FEET...DELTA T'S AROUND 15 TO 17 AND 80          
PERCENT OR GREATER RH EXTENDING TO ABOVE 850 MB.                                
DRIER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NORTHERN           
LOWER MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER 2AM... WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THE          
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH            
GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS AND ASSUMING         
AN AVERAGE SNOWFALL RATE AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...EXPECT ANOTHER         
2 OR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SNOWBELT TONIGHT.                  
THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS AROUND           
GAYLORD...GRAYLING...MANCELONA AND CHARLEVOIX.                                  
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...TONIGHT...MIZ016-019-021-022-028.            
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 300303  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
800 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
CURRENT APX 88D SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS AFFECTING MUCH OF                
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN... WITH SEVERAL                
LOCATIONS NORTH OF M-55 AND WEST OF US-131 WITH +28 DBZ RETURNS. THE            
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER HAVE BEEN SHIFTING DURING           
THE PAST HOUR...WITH THE BANDS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE OF A NORTHWEST            
ORIENTATION INSTEAD OF THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION NOTED EARLIER THIS           
EVENING. THE LATEST MESOETA PICKED UP ON THE WIND SHIFT TO THE                  
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING... PLACING THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL           
NOW OVER ANTRIM...OTSEGO...CHARLEVOIX...KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES.         
RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE TVC AREA INCLUDING ELK RAPIDS AND               
ALDEN... SHOW AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES UNDER THE            
HIGHER 28 DBZ RETURNS.                                                          
THE MESOETA AND RUC MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BEST          
LAKE EFFECT SNOW GENERATION PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z.                 
INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE BETWEEN 4000 AND 7000 FEET         
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING UP INTO A -12C AIRMASS AND           
NORTHWEST FLOW AND DELTA T'S GREATER THAN 17C. WITH BANDS STILL                 
SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER AS WINDS TURN FROM 360 TO 320...LAKE            
EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE DISTRIBUTED OVER A GOOD PORTION OF            
NORTHWEST LOWER UNTIL AROUND 900 PM... BEFORE THE MORE DOMINATE 320 WIND        
SETS UP.                                                                        
THEREFORE WILL UPDATE NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCLUDE TOTAL EVENING                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES.                              
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...THIS EVENING...MIZ008-015.                   
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 292358  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS                                           
1205 PM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
...UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS / DECREASE SNOW SHOWER TO FLURRIES            
GRR AREA...                                                                     
SHORE PARALLEL BAND CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THIS EVENT AS OF NOON                 
TODAY.  BASED ON MSAS DATA SHOWING CONVERGENCE MOSTLY OVER LK MI AND            
HIGHEST SFC DWPTS NEAR LAKE SHORE...PLUS NEW ETA/RUC SHOWING SFC TO             
850 MOISTURE HIGHEST RH STAYING WITHIN 70 MILES OF THE LAKE SHORE               
AND FACT THAT NOT MUCH DEVELOPING EAST OF US-131... HAD DECIDED TO              
DECREASE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO FLURRIES I-96 SOUTH... AND US-131            
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO SHOW BETTER 700 MOISTURE OVER NW               
LWR MI AND THAT MATCHES BETTER SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA BUT            
THAT DOES NOT GET INTO GRR CWA.  EVEN SO... CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SCT            
SNOW SHOWERS N OF I-96 THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS IS ALSO SEEN ON AWIPS              
88D MOSAIC.                                                                     
BASED ON PHONE CALLS TO AREAS ALONG LAKE SHORE THAT HAVE HAD 35DBZ              
SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD... SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS SO FAR.  SO WILL              
KEEP THE LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN LAKE             
SHORE AREAS.  GROUND TO WARM YET... AND SNOW BAND IS MOSTLY OFF                 
SHORE ANYWAY.                                                                   
INCREASED HIGH TO 35 TO 40 OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA SINCE MOST TEMPS IN              
THE 35 TO 37 RANGE AT NOON... SO 35 TO 40 SHOULD BE SAFE GIVEN                  
DEVELOPING MDT CU AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM N AT THE SFC.                   
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 291626  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1105 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS MAIN CONCERN.                                               
LAKE EFFECT BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING FOLLOWING             
A WIND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION...AROUND 340 DEGREES. 4                
MAIN BANDS EVIDENT ON 88-D NOW ORIENTED N-S... WITH THE DOMINANT                
BANDS OVER EASTERN MARQUETTE/WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES AND OVER EASTERN            
ALGER COUNTY. SCATTERED AREAS OF >28DBZ RETURNS WITHIN THESE BANDS.             
VWP SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND 9K FEET...LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...             
BUT STILL GOOD FOR MOD/HVY SNOW.                                                
ONE SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF FA PER WV IMAGERY AND RUC                     
ANALYSIS. ANOTHER WEAK VORT MAX LOCATED NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING             
SOUTHWARD IN N FLOW. THIS MAY SLIGHTLY ENHANCE LES EARLY AFTERNOON              
BEFORE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM WEST. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS N-S AXIS OF                
HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN MISSOURI. LAKE                   
ENHANCED SFC TROF A LITTLE LESS EVIDENT THAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT               
HOURS. RUC INITIALIZED SFC FEATURES AND 850MB TEMPS WELL. EXPECT                
LAKE/850MB DELTA T/S TO REMAIN IN 15-20 C RANGE. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW             
LOWERING INVERSION LEVEL OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 900MB THIS                
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z KINL SOUNDING...WHICH             
SHOWED INVERSION AROUND 875MB. CWPL SOUNDING UPSTREAM ALSO SHOWS                
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 800MB WITH SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 800MB.            
RUC IS NOT TOO QUICK IN DEVELOPING INVERSION OVER CENTRAL AND                   
EASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN PURE LES NATURE OF CURRENT               
CONDITIONS...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WILL               
ADJUST FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN               
WARNING AREAS...HIGHEST IN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST SPOTTER REPORT SO            
FAR OF 7 INCHES WAS IN ALGER COUNTY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR            
MARQUETTE COUNTY... WHERE LES HAS PERSISTED EAST OF MQT AND                     
FAVORABLE NNW FETCH SHOULD CONTINUE. ANOTHER WEAK BAND ALSO OVER                
WESTERN MQT COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHSN BASED ON             
RADAR RETURNS.                                                                  
COORD WITH APX.                                                                 
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THIS AFTERNOON ALGER/LUCE/NORTHERN              
       SCHOOLCRAFT                                                              
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON MARQUETTE COUNTY.               
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 291601  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
1008 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
15Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD SFC HIGH OVER WEST CENTRAL MN WITH RIDGING INTO            
NE MN. VIS LOOP SHOWS SC DECK OVER NE MN WITH SOME HOLES BEGINNING              
TO APPEAR. THIS DECK MATCHES WITH 60 PERCENT 925 MB RH CONTOUR FROM             
THE 14Z RUC. WITH SUBSIDENCE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP EVEN MORE                
WITH ADDED SOLAR. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WORDING AND TAKE A              
CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPS.                                                           
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
GSF                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 290945  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
1000 PM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
BASED ON TRENDS OF STLT (11-3.9U) ANIMATION AND MOST RECENT RUC 925MB RH        
OUTPUT THRU EARLY MORNING HOURS...FEEL POTENTIAL FOR DVLPMNT OF WDSPREAD        
LOW CLDS REST OF NITE HAS DECREASED AND HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT.          
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
GW                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 300325  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC                              
1030 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THAN                  
EXPECTED. CURRENT SET OF ZONES FEATURES MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING IN MOST            
PLACES. BOTH THE 06Z ETA AND THE 09Z RUC SHOW THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS              
MOVING E OF THE AREA AROUND 18Z OR SO AS MID LEVEL DRYING SEEN ON UPPER         
AIR ANALYSIS ADVECTS IN FROM THE NW. THUS...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE            
WEATHER SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE FORECAST IN A FEW HOURS...SO WILL ONLY           
MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WORDING. CURRENT TEMPS ARE NOT FAR FROM FCST           
HIGHS...BUT WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THINK WE         
ARE STILL IN DECENT SHAPE.                                                      
ONE CHANGE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MADE IS THE HIGH TEMP ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AS GRD HAS ALREADY REACHED 60 DEGREES.  WILL SPLIT           
OFF THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO RAISE TEMPS ONE CATEGORY.                             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 291528  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1010 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
MAIN PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER...AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES             
ACROSS THE CWA.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SOME EROSION TO PORTION OF SC             
DECK EXTENDING INTO NW IA...BUT BROAD AREA SEEMS TO BE HANGING TOUGH            
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES.  GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTHWEST OF            
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER WESTERN SD YESTERDAY...HAVE TO THINK A SIMILAR              
PERSISTANCE MIGHT OCCUR OVER JAMES VALLEY AREA TODAY.  THIS THOUGHT             
IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /RUC AND 06Z MESOETA/...               
WHICH KEEP 70%+ LOW LEVEL RH OVER WESTERN CWA MOST OF THE DAY.  ONLY            
CONCERN WITH THIS SCENARIO IS PIREPS AND VISUAL OBSERVATION HERE AT             
FSD SHOW CLOUD DECK IS FAIRLY THIN /200 FT E OF MORVR/...SO ANY                 
ATTEMPT AT MIXING COULD BE SUCCESSFUL AT BREAKING IT UP.  WILL GO               
WITH PERSISTANCE IDEA IN FARTHEST WEST AREAS...WHILE KEEPING AREAS              
CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.  AS A RESULT...WILL               
HAVE TO LOWER TEMPS A NOTCH OR SO IN WESTERN COUNTIES FROM CURRENT              
MID-UPPER 40S.  WILL LET EASTERN AREA TEMPS RIDE FOR NOW.                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 291554  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
955 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
CONCERNS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH CLOUD COVER...AND WHEN OR IF IT WILL            
BURN OFF TODAY. LOOKING AT RUC...CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD LINES UP                  
REALLY WELL WITH THE 60% 1000MB-850MB LINE. THE RUC HAS THIS LINE               
ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST DURING DAY...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 70% OR               
GREATER RH AT LOW LEVELS. LAMP GUIDANCE SHOWS KABR IN LOW CLOUDS ALL            
DAY...WITH KMBG AND KPIR BREAKING OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. KATY MAY             
SEE A FEW BREAKS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THEY ARE ON THE FAR               
EDGE. SFC WINDS IN THE WRN CWA SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY            
WEARS ON IN RESPONSE TO WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO ADVANCE INTO AREA.              
WILL TWEAK CLOUD COVER ALL AREAS...AND WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD               
COVER...WILL HAVE TO LOWER HIGHS A NOTCH...ESPECIALLY KABR AND KATY             
AREAS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED TO FORECAST                                     
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 290952  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
930 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOW BLEEDING SWD OUT OF IOWA AND               
MINNESOTA, PUTS MIDDLE TN IN A STABLE AND VERY COOL AIR MASS.                   
BASED ON LATEST RUC, WHICH SHOWS SGFNTLY COOLER 1000MB TEMPS TDY THAN           
DID PREV (00Z) MODELS, WILL PROBABLY UPDATE AFTERNOON TEMPS FOR SOME            
AREAS AND GO MORE WITH A NW-SE TEMP GRADIENT (RATHER THAN CURRENT               
N-S SET-UP).                                                                    
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 291546  tn                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
905 PM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
WINDS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME COMING UP.  MSAS SHOWS BEST GRADIENT             
REMAINING TO THE NORTH...BUT SLOWLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH.  PRESSURE              
RISES BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE.  CURRENT            
TRENDS AND MODEL DATA (LONG TERM AND RUC) INDICATE THE BETTER                   
GRADIENT TO MAKE IT INTO CWFA TONIGHT (KVCT NOW AT 9KTS) SO WILL                
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON LOWERING WINDS FOR A WHILE LONGER AS CURRENT            
WIND FORECAST STILL IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.  HOWEVER...IF WINDS            
NEED TO BE LOWERED...TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED AS WELL AS PER               
PREVIOUS AFD.                                                                   
NO ZFP ISSUED ATTM.                                                             
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
86/GW                                                                           
EOD                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 300253  tx                                      

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
815 PM MON NOV 29 1999                                                          
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE DOMINATING THE WX IN            
DEEP S TX...LLVL CONVERGENCE OF WINDS ALONG THE SEABRZ FNT MAY TOUCH            
OFF SHRAS TUE. CURRENT ERLETA METEOGRAM IS SHOWING ISOLATED PCPN IN             
THE VLY TUE WITH LLVL WIND FLOW INCREASING FM THE NE AT 20 KTS. MSTR            
DEEPENS FM SFC TO 750MB TUE NOONISH...BUT PWATS PROGD TO MAX AT ONLY            
1.1 INCH WITH LI'S STAYING POSITIVE. RUC2 ALSO SHOWS MSTR CONVERGING            
IN DEEP S TX LATE TUE MRNG WITH DEEPENING AND INCREASING NE FETCH IN            
LLVLS.                                                                          
BOTH NGM AND ETA DO INFER LOW POPS TUE. CURRENT KBRO REF AND STLT               
SHOW MSTR OVR ADJ GULF...-RA TO RA AND SUM ISOLATED SHRAS DID FORM              
MON OVR PORTIONS OF THE VLY. WL ALLOW CURRENT DRY FCST TO CONTINUE              
AND ANOTHER RUN OF MDL DATA.                                                    
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ZFPBRO WITH MINOR CHANGE OF CWF FOR WAVE                  
HEIGHTS. SYN...PHILO 58/HMT...MARTINEZ                                          
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KFWD 292317  tx                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1025 AM CST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
UPDATED ZNS TO CLEAN UP WORDING FOR FOG. PATCHY FG REMAINING ACROSS             
NRN ZNS AND WILL HANDLE WITH NOWS UNTIL IT BURNS OFF. WENT MOSTLY               
SUNNY THIS AFTN AS SATL SHOWS LITTLE IN WAY OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM. 15Z             
RUC BRINGS WINDS TO S/SE ACROSS FA THIS AFTN AS SFC HIGH CENTER MVS             
SE INTO OH VALLEY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN LATEST                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 291604 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1014 AM EST MON NOV 29 1999                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO ZONES THIS UPDATE. 12Z SOUDINGS SUPPORT              
CURRENT FCST HIGHS. MESOETA/RUC SHOWING GOOD COVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE              
ON THE E SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTN AND TNGT. WINDS SHUD BEGIN             
TO INCREASE ARND 21Z. THIS WL BE THE BEGINNING OF STG CAA.                      
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
AMS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 291500  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA...UPDATED FOR HEADLINES                  
845 PM PST MON NOV 29 1999                                                      
WHERE IS THE RAIN AND SNOW YOU SAY? WELL THE FACT REMAINS THAT MUCH             
OF THE VALLEY AND TO AN EXTENT THE REGION USUALLY RECEIVES LITTLE               
PRECIPITATION FROM PRE-FRONTAL/WARM AIR ADVECTION EFFECTS. 00Z KOAK             
SOUNDINGS HELPS SHOW THIS WITH A DRY ATMOSHPERE SEEN BETWEEN                    
800-600MB. BLUE CANYON ASOS SHOWS A DEWPOINT OF -8C INDICATIVE OF               
THE DRY AIR. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE                  
REGION AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN LIGHT FOG AND LOW ALTOCUMULUS. CLOUD              
STRUCTURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED STRONG TURBULENCE WITH MAMMATUS            
TEXTURE. UPWARD MOTION IS THERE BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING. VAD               
WIND PROFILE SHOWS 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10KFT AT THIS TIME.               
THE RAIN...OCNLLY HEAVY...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN SAC VALLEY TO THE           
NORTH BAY. ITS SPREADING INTO WESTERN PLUMAS CTY NOW. UP TO 1.5                 
INCHES HAS FALLEN IN TRINITY COUNTY ALPS. OVERNIGHT IT WILL BE                  
LOCALLY WINDY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN ZONES.                                     
00Z MODELS INCLUDING THE RUC SHOW A NARROW AREA OF H7 MOISTURE AND              
DECENT OMEGA PUSHING THRU THE CENTRAL VALLEY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THE            
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE H2 JET MAX OF 120+ KTS WILL SAG OVER THE                 
REGION HOWEVER VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL BE STRETCHED               
WITH MOST ENERGY LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT A WEAK SECONDARY             
VORT MAX OVERHEAD BY 15Z. AROUND ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE               
FEEDING THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN ON SSM/I PRODUCTS AND H85 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE      
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO ALL OF OUR CWA.             
ITS PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN A BREAK IN PRECIPIATION ON TUESDAY.                  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT BUT NORTHERN HALF OF              
ZONES SHOULD GET DECENT AMOUNTS WITH GOOD S-SW FLOW. SAC AREA SHOULD            
SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MAY EVEN BE MISSED AS                  
SOUTHERN END OF FRONT IS WEAK. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO              
NEAR 5500 FEET BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION ENDS IN THE SIERRA.                    
CONCERNED ABOUT THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SIERRA                 
ABOVE 7000FEET. WINDS WILL VERIFY BUT A FOOT OF SNOW MAY NOT HAPPEN.            
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COVER STRONG WINDS IN SHASTA COUNTY                
WITH A REPORT OF GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH AT 830 PM.                                   
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE NOW SEEN ON WATER VAPOR NEAR 41N AND                
135W IS DIVING QUICKLY TOWARDS NORCAL. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A                  
LITTLE LESS MOISTURE (PW'S NEAR 0.9 INCH) BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MUCH          
LOWER AND THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL BE MORE WESTERLY SUPPORTIVE             
OF GOOD UPSLOPE. A GOOD AREA OF H7-5 QVEC CONVERGENCE AND H7 OMEGA              
WILL TARGET THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEAR 06Z. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN            
TO THE SAC CWA BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z...THEN TAPER OFF TOWARDS 12Z                 
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH AND SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER. THIS WILL BE A            
QUICK SHOT OF DECENT PRECIP...BUT DEFINITELY GRANTS THE WINTER STORM            
WATCH WITH UP TO A FOOT OF POWDER POSSIBLE FOR NRN SIERRA. SNOW                 
LEVELS SHOULD GET AS LOW AS 3000 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH H7                 
TEMPS NEAR -10C BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
LINGERS FOR STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.                                  
WILL LIKELY UPDATE TO WORK ON PRECIPIATION WORDING,BEEF UP WINDS ETC.           
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS ONLINE FOR               
THURSDAY...BUT IS PROGGED TO TAKE A COURSE FURTHER NORTH. WAA                   
ADVECTION CLOUDS RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD                
HELP PREVENT DENSE FOG.                                                         
.STO...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR WESTERN                 
       PLUMAS COUNTY                                                            
    ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR NW SHASTA                            
       COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA TO                       
       NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES ABOVE 5500 FEET AND THE NORTHERN                  
       SIERRA NEVADA AND WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY ABOVE 6000 FEET                  
    ...WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY TONIGHT...                       
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SIERRA                          
       NEVADA...SHASTA COUNTY/SOUTHERN CASCADES INCLUDING BURNEY                
       BASIN AND NORTHERN COASTAL RANGE ABOVE 4000 FEET                         
TARDY                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 300512  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
405 AM TUE NOV 30 1999                                                          
CONTINUING THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST THUMB                    
HEADLINES THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.                                              
SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND 6KM ETA...INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO                
VEER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING. THROUGHOUT THIS             
EVENT LAKE EFFECT BAND HAS LINGERED PRIMARILY OFFSHORE WITH THE                 
OCCASIONAL EXCURSION INLAND...PRODUCING NOTHING MORE THAN A                     
DUSTING. WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT              
BAND LIKELY TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES...WITH            
BEST ACTIVITY ACROSS HURON COUNTY. APART FROM WIND DIRECTION...OTHER            
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS STILL SUPPORTIVE THROUGH 15Z WITH INVERSION              
HEIGHTS RUNNING BETWEEN 750 AND 800 MB...LAKE AIR DELTA/S AROUND                
20C...AND 850 MB RH 50 PERCENT PLUS. WITH ADVISORY UP WILL CONTINUE             
THROUGH MID MORNING. AT THIS POINT...MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO FIND A 3            
INCH REPORT...BUT WITH FIRST EVENT OF THE SEASON WILL KEEP IN PLACE.            
REPORTS FROM COUNTY OFFICIALS THIS MORNING INDICATED CAR ACCIDENTS              
OCCURRING EVEN WITH ONLY DUSTING. ONE OTHER NOTE ON LES EVENT...6 KM            
ETA SUGGESTS THAT SOME SHSN ACTIVITY COULD SNEAK INTO ST CLAIR                  
COUNTY SO WILL BREAK OFF THAT COUNTY FOR 20 PERCENT POPS THIS                   
MORNING.                                                                        
FOR REMAINDER OF CWA THIS MORNING WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH CLOUDS AND             
FLURRIES. KDTX 88D CLEARLY INDICATES FLURRY ACTIVITY OVER CWA.                  
ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS INDICATE IT WANING ACROSS CWA. HOWEVER...                
WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO DISCERN ANY ACTIVITY VIA MTR REPORTS AS ALL            
STATIONS REPORTING DRY CONDITIONS. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ESSENTIALLY               
OUT OF CWA BY 15Z...WILL WORD FORECASTS FOR CLOUDS/FLURRIES THROUGH             
MID MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.                                       
FINAL FORM SUBJECT TO CHANGE JUST BEFORE 445 AM PRESS TIME.                     
TONIGHT ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW TEMPERATURES. FWC AT DTW PRINTING                
16...WHILE FAN OFFERS 21...AND ETA 2M TEMP AT 25. TEMPERATURES                  
UNDER STRONG HIGH THIS MORNING ARE INTO LOW 20S AND UPPER TEENS WITH            
CONSIDERABLE COOLING TO GO. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF CWA             
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ETA INDICATES GRADIENT TO BE WEAK THROUGH           
12Z. FWC TEMP OF 16 LOOKS TO BE RESULT OF VERY DRY AIR. BELIEVE THAT            
DTW FWC TEMP PROBABLY TOO LOW...BUT NOT BY MUCH. THEREFORE WILL GO              
WITH UPPER TEENS ENTIRE CWA...EXCEPT NORTHEAST THUMB WHERE WILL OPT             
FOR AROUND 15...BASED PRIMARILY ON ASSUMPTION THAT SOME SNOW                    
WILL BE ON THE GROUND THERE TONIGHT. IF NOT...THEN UPPER TEENS                  
PROBABLY OK THERE TOO. NGM SHOWS CI AROUND TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST                
PART...THE CI LOOKS TO BE TRANSPARENT...SO WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR.              
ON WEDNESDAY...DAY STARTS OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT CI            
BEGINS TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN CWA BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...                  
PRODUCING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...WHILE SOUTH STAYS MOSTLY SUNNY.                  
FWC/FAN TEMPS NEARLY IDENTICAL...AND SEE NO REASON TO QUIBBLE.                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD WITH DENSE CI PROVIDING MOSTLY              
CLOUDY SKIES AND FAN TEMPS IN FORECAST RANGE...SO NO CHANGE.                    
.DTX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY...                 
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 300858  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
650 AM CST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                      
WILL UPDATE ZONES IN THE CWA TO REFLECT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK                    
MOVING IN FROM WEST. CLOUDS SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING FAIRLY           
STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. 00Z MODELS SEEM TO           
MISS THE BOAT ON THIS ONE...BUT 09Z RUC THIS MORNING HAS IT HANDLED             
WELL AND KEEPS 65 TO 7O RH MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY. WILL LOWER         
TEMPS AT LEAST A CAT EVEN THOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL         
HELP OFFSET CLOUD EFFECTS.                                                      
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
CROSBIE                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDVN 300907 COR  il                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
939 AM EST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS:                                                                       
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY                   
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA...WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AND DRY             
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING             
STORM SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA             
SCOTIA BY WED NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SNOW AND WIND TO             
DOWNEAST MAINE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.                                   
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION:                                                           
CAN/T SEE ANY REASON TO CHG TO MUCH W/PRVS PKG AS HIGH PRES WILL                
HOLD STG. CWFA STILL UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. RUC HAS DECENT AMT OF NVA             
OVER THE AREA THRU LATE AFTN. SHOULD SEE SCU DVLPMENT W/COLD AIR &              
ENUF LLVL RH STILL IN PLACE. DOWNEAST & TO THE CST WILL SEE                     
SOME AC-CI ADVECT INTO THE RGN LATE FM THE OPEN WTRS W/DVLPG LOW E              
OF NJ.                                                                          
FOR TEMPS...I LIKE 25-30 FOR ZNS1-10. 12Z CAR SNDG GIVES CLOSE TO 30            
DEGS. A FLURRY IS PSBL THIS AFTN...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. CAN LEAVE               
OUT IF YOU WISH. PS WILL WORK ESP NRN ZNS.                                      
COASTAL WATERS...NE WINDS ATTM AVGG 20-25. SEAS @ 5 FT. MIGHT WANT              
TO PUSH RNG TO 5 TO 7 FT THIS AFTN. WILL REMOVE SHSN IN THIS UPDATE.            
GLW CRITERIA LOOK TO BE IN ORDER TNGT.                                          
.CAR...GLW.                                                                     
JOE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KCAR 300838  me                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1005 AM EST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
IR/VIS LOOPS SHOWING BKN SC ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.. WITH             
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.  KLWX RADAR INDICATING           
SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS FROM N OF CHO TO NEAR OKV.. AND SUSPECT THAT A          
FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAY BE FALLING ACROSS THIS AREA.                      
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM           
THE WEST WILL RESULT IN STRONG NNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME           
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED FLUURIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE                   
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.. BUT MAY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS THE FLOW         
SHIFTS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. HAVE BROKEN OUT A FEW                  
COUNTIES FROM OKV TO SHD TO ADD A MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES OR                  
SPRINKLES EARLY.                                                                
MODIFIED 12Z IAD SOUNDING ALONG WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z ETA           
AND 09Z RUC SHOW VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON.. AND          
EXPECT THAT SCT-BKN SC WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.          
A LITTLE MORE MOISUTRE AVAILABLE IN THE WEST.. AND V/C FORECAST THERE           
APPEARS IN LINE.  WILL CONTINUE WITH PSUNNY WORDING FOR THE EAST.               
NNWLY FLOW AND MODERATE COLD ADVECTION TODAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM             
CLIMBING MORE THAN 4 OR 5 DEGREES FROM CURRENT READINGS. TEMPS IN THE           
30S FOR THE WEST APPEAR GOOD... BUT WILL TWEAK MAX TEMP FORECASTS UP TO         
AROUND 40 FOR THE EAST AS 15Z TEMPS ARE ALREADY UP IN THE 35-37 RANGE.          
KLWX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 20-25 KNOT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...          
WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITHE          
BLUSTERY WORDING IN ZONES.. AND SCA WILL REMAIN UP FOR MARINE AREA.             
.LWX...SCA MD PTN BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC                                         
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 300802  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE THE FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING.                        
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE AXIS JUST EAST OF THE UP...WITH RETURN             
FLOW PATTERN BEGINNING TO SET UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.             
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE UP CLOUD FREE. SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS IN            
THE EASTERN COUNTIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...ALTHOUGH LATEST IMAGES              
SHOW SOME CLOUDS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TOWARD                 
NEWBERRY. I THINK THESE WILL SKIRT NEWBERRY AS S/SW WINDS PICK                  
UP...SO WILL LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING ALONE. LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS              
SHOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 900MB (KGRB)...850MB (KMPX AND KINL)               
AND 800MB (KAPX). VIS IMAGERY AND METARS ALSO INDICATE CLOUDS JUST              
TO THE WEST OF THE UP RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM OVC030 TO OVC060. KINL              
AND KMPX SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSION. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS MOISTURE             
PICKED UP BY RUC 900MB RH FIELD...AND FORECAST TO BRUSH THE WESTERN             
COUNTIES AS MAIN CORE OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN                
SATELLITE TREND...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL AT LEAST GRAZE WESTERN                
GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES...SO WILL ADJUST WORDING FOR                     
INCREASING CLOUDS THERE. WILL LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING ALONE FOR              
REMAINING COUNTIES.                                                             
SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS             
AFTERNOON. RUC WIND FORECAST KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...BUT              
ITS ALREADY UNDERDOING THE WINDS IN MN UNDER THE TIGHTER GRADIENT.              
WILL THEREFORE KEEP WORDING OF INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
BRISK CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES.                                     
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK SO FAR...SO WILL LEAVE ALONE.                               
.MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                              
JS                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 301539  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1000 AM CST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
CLOUDS ERODING FROM WEST ON SATELLITE...RUC FORECASTS DECREASE OF               
LOW LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO LESS THAN SATURATION OVER ALL BUT W              
CENTRAL WI ZONES.  FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT                       
THIS...OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING ZONES HOLDING WELL.                              
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDLH 300939  mn                                      

NORTHEAST MONTANA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
854 AM MST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                      
UPDATED PLANNED.                                                                
LEE TROF IN CNTRL MT...COOL FRONT SOMEWHERE IN W MT JUDGING BY PRESS            
TENDENCIES/WINDS BUTTE/MSO. RUC/ETA PLACES THICKNESS RIDGE OVER E MT            
NOW...SWEPT INTO NODAK BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SFC TROF. SW/LY SFC              
FLOW ACROSS CNTRL MT WITH TEMPS MID 40S TO MID 50S...WILL APPROACH              
NEMONT...ESP SW ZONES. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO 50F IN SW ZONE...MID             
50S NOT ENOUGH TO COVER POTENTIAL HEAT BURST FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS             
COOL FRONT ORGANIZES AND SWEEPS E/WARD...WILL UPDATE PRIMARILY TO               
BOOST MAXIMA SW ZONES. ELSE...CURRENT FCST HANDLES CONDITIONS WELL              
WITH SCTD/BKN CI TODAY AS E PAC TROF OPENS AND TRANSLATES E/WARD                
INTO GRT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES.                                                   
GGW 012 052/026/042                                                             
GDV 012 055/029/042                                                             
SECORA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBYZ 301540  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC                              
955 AM EST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                      
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST...BUILDING            
TOWARD THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE               
NEAREST CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV/VA...WITH A FEW CLOUDS MAKING         
IT DOWN TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NC. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN TO         
THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS ARE NOTED             
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...BUT THE 06Z ETA SHOWS THIS CIRRUS HEADING TO THE         
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. THE CURRENT SET OF ZONES SEEM TO BE           
IN DECENT SHAPE...OTHER THAN SOME MORNING WORDING THAT MUST BE CLEANED          
UP. 06Z ETA AND 09Z RUC SHOW COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE           
DAY. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART...BUT WILL PROBABLY SPLIT OFF        
THE SOUTHERNMOST ZONES AGAIN TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER.                             
.GSP...WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES TODAY FOR ALL ZONES.                        
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 300744  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY...CORRECTED         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
ISSUED BY NWS NORTH PLATTE                                                      
1232 PM CST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
...ISSUED AS SERVICE BACKUP BY WFO NORTH PLATTE...                              
MADE SEVERAL LATE MORNING UPDATES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.                
IN SD ZONES...REMOVED MORNING WORDING FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS                    
MENTIONED IN SEVERAL SD ZONES. SOME FOG...5SM BR...LINGERING AT                 
PHILIP AT 18Z...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP CLEAR OUT FOG BY EARLY              
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES TO SHOOT TO NEAR HIGHS TARGETED IN                   
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. IEN SHOT UP RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING              
WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN. DID LOWER HIGHS 5 DEGREES FOR NW SD ZONES               
WHERE WIND SHIFT TO SW HAS YET TO TAKE PLACE AND THICK CI LIMITING              
INSOLATION.                                                                     
WINDS MUCH STRONGER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST FOR NE WY ZONES AND                 
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH              
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN GCC AND DGW WILL KEEP WINDS IN WINDY CATEGORY            
THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS...BUT SUGGEST             
NO DECREASE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH REST OF AFTERNOON.                            
...CORRECTED FOR WORDING SECOND PARAGRAPH...                                    
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
SHEETS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 301833  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
ISSUED BY NWS NORTH PLATTE                                                      
1231 PM CST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
...ISSUED AS SERVICE BACKUP BY WFO NORTH PLATTE...                              
MADE SEVERAL LATE MORNING UPDATES TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.                
IN SD ZONES...REMOVED MORNING WORDING FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS                    
MENTIONED IN SEVERAL SD ZONES. SOME FOG...5SM BR...LINGERING AT                 
PHILIP AT 18Z...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP CLEAR OUT FOG BY EARLY              
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES TO SHOOT TO NEAR HIGHS TARGETED IN                   
MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE. IEN SHOT UP RAPIDLY EARLIER THIS MORNING              
WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN. DID LOWER HIGHS 5 DEGREES FOR NW SD ZONES               
WHERE WIND SHIFT TO SW HAS YET TO TAKE PLACE AND THICK CI LIMITING              
INSOLATION.                                                                     
WINDS MUCH STRONGER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST FOR NW WY ZONES AND                 
UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH              
SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN GCC AND DGW WILL KEEP WINDS IN WINDY CATEGORY            
THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC DID NOT PICK UP ON THIS...BUT SUGGEST             
NO DECREASE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH REST OF AFTERNOON.                            
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
SHEETS                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 301630   sd                                     

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
1115 AM CST TUE NOV 30 1999                                                     
UPDATED ZNS TO REMOVE MORNING CLOUDS/FG. SOME PATCHY STRATUS ALONG              
SRN BORDER OF CWA BUT THAT SHOULD BE GONE SOON. INCREASED WIND                  
SPEEDS IN CENTRAL/NE ZNS AS CURRENT OBS/MESONET SHOWING SPEEDS WELL             
INTO 20MPH RANGE. 12Z MODELS/15Z RUC INDICATE PRES GRADIENTS AT SFC             
AND H8 TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO EVEN WITH MIXING...WINDS                  
EXPECTED TO STAY IN TOP END OF BREEZY CATEGORY. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPS              
IN E BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. SOME CI ON SATL IMAGERY DEVELOPING                
ACROSS ERN CO/NM SO MOSUNNY ON TRACK.                                           
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 301653  tx