FXUS61 KPHI 031851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT 
EASTWARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE 
REGION WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND AN ONSHORE FLOW. DURING 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE 
APPROACHING OUR AREA. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY GET 
ENTRAINED WITH THE COLD FRONT, MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD NEXT 
FRIDAY WITH DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WELL LATE THIS MORNING THINGS TURNED A LITTLE INTERESTING AS A WEAK
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPED OFFSHORE OF CAPE MAY COUNTY NEAR SEA ISLE CITY 
(AROUND 1130 AM). THE BEACH PATROL DID OBSERVE THIS AND IT DID MOVE 
ONSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. NO REPORTS OF ANY DAMAGE WITH THIS, 
ALTHOUGH SOME BEACH CHAIRS AND SAND DID GET TOSSED AROUND A BIT. THE 
RADAR DID SHOW AN ISOLATED CELL BUT WAS NOT EXCITED ABOUT ROTATION, 
BUT THERE WAS SOMETHING THERE. THE CU THAT THIS DEVELOPED FROM WAS 
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER, BUT THERE WAS JUST ENOUGH SPIN TO 
BRIEFLY GET SOMETHING GOING. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED
THEREFORE THE PLAN IS TO LEAVE TONIGHT PRECIPITATION-FREE. WITH THE 
LONGER NIGHTS NOW, PARTLY CLOUDY/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES (HIGH CLOUDS) 
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, WILL ADD IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AND 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOME AREAS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SHORT WAVE LIFTING 
UP THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING A SMALL 
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO OHIO. THIS 
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS 
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE A SPOTTY SHOWER WITH THE 
FRONT LATE SATURDAY, DO NOT THINK COVERAGE WARRANTS INCLUSION 
INTO THE FORECAST ATTM AS MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS A NEW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS
SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND. MOISTURE LOOKS TO GATHER JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA THEREFORE THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE FLOW WILL BE
ONSHORE. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN,
GIVEN THAT THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY LOW CHC ATTM, WE WILL NOT INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM (LABOR DAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A 
SOUTHEAST WIND ON LABOR DAY. MODELS INDICATING SOME MOISTURE 
GATHERING OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COASTS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN PLACE, DO NOT 
REALLY THINK MUCH DEVELOPS ON LABOR DAY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHC 
(20%) POP FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY ON LABOR 
DAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM BASICALLY DEPENDS ON HOW FRANCES 
(MOSTLY THE REMNANTS OF) IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC PROGS AND TPC FORECAST TRACK RELATING TO 
FRANCES, THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN WITH THIS 
PACKAGE. WITH THE CIRCULATION WITH FRANCES A RATHER EXPANSIVE ONE, 
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE 
TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY, MOISTURE RETURN. SURFACE WINDS WILL 
BE MOSTLY SOUTHEAST, POSSIBLY KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL 
INLAND, HOWEVER WILL NOT GET THAT SPECIFIC YET. POPS WILL BE HELD AT 
40% TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THEN INCREASED POPS TO 50% FOR 
WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF FRANCES BRINGS 
THE REMNANT CENTER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING (SUBJECT TO 
CHANGE OF COURSE). IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL 
BE THE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE FROM FRANCES GETS TANGLED UP WITH AN 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, WILL WORD AS "SCATTERED" 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW 
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL NOT GO LIKELY AT THIS TIME (THE EXTENDED 
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY CLUSTERED AROUND 50% POPS). COULD BE SOME 
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. 

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS (30-40%) ON THURSDAY AS THE REMNANTS
AND FRONTAL FEATURE MOVE THROUGH. DID BUMP POPS UP THOUGH THURSDAY 
FROM SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC (30%) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES, WHICH 
BLENDS WELL WITH OUR NEIGHBORS. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHC POP UP 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN 
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE END TIME ATTM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH THEN PROGGED 
TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.  

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND!

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.  HOWEVER...DESPITE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER...THERE ARE SOME 
MARINE CONCERNS.  FIRST IS WAVE HEIGHTS WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND 
HURRICANE FRANCES TO THE SOUTH.  THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
UNTIL FRANCES MAKES LANDFALL LATER IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL 
CONTINUE THE SCA.  ALSO WITH EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 
PART OF THE WEEKEND AND HIGH SEAS...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD 
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.  
THERE MAY BE SOME MORNING FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS 
THE AREA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MD...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ZONES ANZ450>ANZ455.
$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...GORSE
MARINE/AVIATION...LSN