SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
920 AM MST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY AND              
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DRY...AND WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE           
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...PRODUCING           
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AND MOST              
OTHER PLACES LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL            
LOW WILL DROP THROUGH EASTERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING            
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT NO RAINFALL IS           
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA OR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOUNDINGS CONTINUED DRY AT 12Z WITH ONLY SLIGHT RH INCREASES BTWN 20K           
AND 30K...MNLY ACROSS NRN AZ. THIS DUE TO TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT TO           
OUR NW AT 12Z.  RUC AND ETA SIMILAR ON INITIAL HEIGHTS AND BOTH SHOW            
MEAGER RH ACROSS AZ THIS MORNING. NGM BEST RH AT 700MB LATE TODAY               
REMAINS ALONG A GLOBE-DOUGLAS LN AND DCREASES BY MDNIGHT.                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS SFC WINDS. 12Z DATA             
IS STILL SHOWING AN INCREASE IN GRADIENT...BUT ONLY FOR NRN PORTIONS            
OF AZ AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT AFFECTS ON OUR CWFA. MAY SEE SOME               
GUSTS ALONG THE RIVER AND WESTWARD...BLH ALREADY AT 15KTS. WINDS TO             
KEEP BLOWING TONIGHT...BUT A QUICK COMPARISON BTWN OLD AND NEW 850              
WINDS FOR 12Z SHOW A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEEDS FOR LOWER                   
COLORADO RVR AREA...WITH "CORE" STILL REMAINING BTWN BLYTHE AND                 
THERMAL FOR 12Z SATURDAY.  MOS SFC SPEEDS ALSO BACKING OFF A BIT FOR            
YUMA AND PHX.                                                                   
ETA AND NGM FAIRLY CLOSE ON 500MB HGTS THRU SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BY           
SUNDAY MRNG NGM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA.           
MODELS STILL SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM EDGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S.           
FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LVL RH FOR EARLY NEXT WK.  NO UPDATES.                  
SIPPLE                                                                          
N                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
843 PM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
LOW PRESSURE FLAT OVER THE REGION AS COLD FRONT MOVING PAST SOUTHERN            
CWA ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...LOW                
PRESSURE IN OKLAHOMA WITH WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE US.                         
CURRENT TEMPS AND CLOUDS IN FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MAY TWEAK WITH                 
WINDS TONIGHT AS FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS BUT NOT UNTIL THE NEXT               
PERIOD TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CWA.                                       
NEW RUC INDICATES WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL                
WATERS...BUT THEY ARE ABOUT 5 KNOTS LESS AGAINST FORECAST 02Z TIME              
AND CURRENT CONDITIONS FROM LOOKING UPSTREAM. WILL STILL CONTINUE               
TREND OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NORTHERN LEG BY                
MORNING.  11                                                                    
.JAX...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
215 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT S/W ACROSS N CNTRL TX ASSOC WITH                 
STRONG 28 VORT WHICH IS KICKING OFF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS E                 
TX. RUC SHOWS S/W THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER TODAY                   
MOVING E OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN DECENT                   
AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WAVE THOUGH NGM IS BRINGING STRONGER SYS A                  
BIT FURTHER S THAN THE ETA...AND ETA HAS HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PROGD               
WITH THE NEXT SYS AND AVN THE MOST. NGM POPS IN THE 10-20 RANGE LOOK            
TOO LOW SAT CONSIDERING UPPER SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
AT THE SFC...LOW PRES TRACKING OFF THE NE CST WILL PULL THE FRONT               
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. FOR TONIGHT AND SAT...EASTERLY                    
FLOW INCREASES BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LYR WINDS UP TO AROUND              
20 KNOTS AS LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NE. WILL SEE                
SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG                 
NE-E SFC-LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SSW MOIST FLOW AT 850 MB AHEAD OF NEXT             
S/W.                                                                            
FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOSITURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY              
MORNING HOURS. WILL SEE LOW CLOUDINESS AND FOG EARLY THIS A.M.                  
FOLLOWED BY SKIES BECMG PTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR             
FILTERS INTO THE AREA.                                                          
TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT SRN ZONES WITH DEVELOPING            
LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN.                                                          
SAT...WILL BUMP UP NGM POPS UP A BIT ON SAT WITH UPPER S/W MOVING               
IN AND SOME LOW LEVEL WAA. MAY LIMIT TSTM CHCS TO FL ZONES BUT WILL             
WAIT ON SWODY2 FOR FINAL CALL ON THAT ONE...AS NGM/ETA SFC LIS RISE             
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE GA ZONES WITH THE "WEDGE" DEVELOPING ALONG              
THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.                                              
BOTH NGM/AVN MOS TEMPS CLOSE AND WILL ACCEPT.                                   
MARINE: MODELS FCST WINDS TO DROP OFF TODAY BUT CURRENT BUOY WINDS              
BORDERING ON SMALL CRAFT. WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 3 AND 4 AM BUOY            
OBS. EXPECT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND                  
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.                                   
EXTENDED: AVN FORECASTING WET SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS                   
LIKE A REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION FROM SHORTER RANGE MODELS. I KNOW               
ITS STILL FAR OFF...BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG (SVR?)                
TSTMS SUNDAY IF LATEST AVN FCST PANS OUT. WILL WAIT ON NEW MRF FOR              
UPDTS TO MON AND TUE...IF ANY.                                                  
PRELIM TEMPS & POPS...                                                          
TLH  79 53 71 52  1145                                                          
PFN  75 56 71 54  1156                                                          
DHN  74 51 66 50  -156                                                          
ABY  75 50 64 49  -156                                                          
VLD  80 52 69 50  -145                                                          
TLH...                                                                          
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
VOLKMER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TIME                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
915 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
UPDATING ZONES MAINLY FOR CLOUD WORDING AS ALL LOCATIONS CLOUDY                 
NOW.  SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ON OUR             
DOORSTEP AND 40 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN OK.  COLUMN CONTINUING TO                   
MOISTEN AS PER FORECAST BUT PRECIP IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY AND              
PROBABLY NOT TIL MORNING HOURS.  I AM BEGINNING TO QUESTION PRECIP              
TYPE AS WE ARE UNDER GOOD WAA AND TEMPS NOT FALLING OFF AND PROBABLY            
WONT WITH THE CLOUD COVER.  WE COULD BE RAIN IN THE SOUTH WITH SNOW             
IN THE NORTH.  FACTORS AGAINST THIS ARE THE RUC ANALYSIS AND                    
SOUNDINGS WHICH STILL SHOW A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER FOR THE PRECIP              
TO BE SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EVAPORATIVE                  
COOLING.  FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PRECIP WORDING AS IS BECAUSE IT WILL               
LIKELY NOT GET GOING BEFORE THE NEXT ZONE PKG IS OUT AND THEY WILL              
HAVE MORE TIME TO LOOK AT NEW MODEL DATA.                                       
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FAB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
830 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ILL-DEFINED FRONT ALONG UPPER TX COASTLINE            
AND INLAND ACROSS S LA JUST NORTH OF I-10 AND US 190.  KIND OF A                
BATTLE BETWEEN LOW CLOUD DECK FORMING (PER 11-3.9 MICRON SAT                    
IMAGERY...SFC OBS...ETC) AND COOLER AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.                  
HERE'S THE RESULT.  WILL LEAVE WINDS ALONE IN ZONES...LIGHT WINDS               
WILL DO FINE.  WILL CHANGE MOSTLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BECOMING             
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS VARIOUS ZONES.  SINCE SE TX IS APPARENTLY NORTH            
OF THE FRONT...AND TEMPS ARE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 2 DEGREES            
NOW...WILL BUMP A CATEGORY DOWN...DESPITE THE INCREASING CLOUD                  
COVER.  RUC DOESN'T SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.  ZONE UPDATE            
WILL FOLLOW.                                                                    
.LCH...                                                                         
LA...NONE                                                                       
TX...NONE                                                                       
UPDATED NUMBERS...                                                              
BPT 57/78/60/70 0285                                                            
LCH 59/76/59/69 0285                                                            
LFT 59/76/60/69 0186                                                            
AEX 53/68/53/66 0287                                                            
8                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                     
LATEST SFC CHART SHOWS HI PRES OVR SRN ONTARIO WITH RDG AXIS                    
STRETCHING ACRS CWA. VIS SAT LOOP INDICATES RESIDUAL SCT LK SC IN               
NELY FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF HI FM MQT EWD WITH APX SDNG SHOWING HIER              
LLVL MSTR BLO INVRN HGT AT H825. GRB SDNG A BIT DRIER IN LLVLS. SFC             
HI UNDER EXPANSIVE UPR RDG ACRS SCNTRL CAN E OF PAC SHRTWV MOVG THRU            
SW CAN. HUGE 12HR H3-5 HGT RISES WITHIN RDG AXIS INDICATE THIS SYS              
BLDG WITH CONSIDERABLE SUBSIDENCE/WAD AS ARCTIC AIR ACRS ERN CAN                
EVACUATING EWD IN STRG SLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC-H85 RDG AXIS.               
CONSIDERABLE HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH OVRRNG HAS MOVD AS FAR E AS H5              
RDG AXIS IN NCNTRL MN...BUT LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLD HAS TENDED TO              
DRY OUT AS IT MOVES INTO SUBSIDING AIR WITHIN RDG.                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND CLD TRENDS AND TEMPS. LATEST               
RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS RDG AXIS MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ON CWA TDAY. AS UPR            
RDG SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD BY THIS AFTN INTO CWA...XPCT HI CLD TO GRDLY              
OVRSPRD CWA W-E BUT NOT TO REACH ERN ZNS UNTIL LATE. WITH SFC RDG IN            
PLACE MOST OF DAY...RUC SHOWS SFC-H85 WAD AFFECTING ONLY WRN ZNS                
AFTR 21Z. BUT STRG SUBSIDENCE FCST TO RAISE H85 TEMPS 2-3C. THIS                
SUBSIDENCE SHUD ALSO DSPT ANY LINGERING LK CLD...BUT XPCT SOME                  
DIURNAL CU OVR ECNTRL ZNS INTO AFTN GIVEN RATHER MOIST LLVL APX SDNG.           
12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS LTL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT AND DRY AIR             
WITHIN LGT ACYC FLOW TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO NO LOW CLD OVR WRN CWA             
AFTR ANY LINGERING LK SC DSPTS THERE.                                           
NEEDED TO ADD ABOUT 12C ON TO H85 TEMPS UPSTREAM YDAY FOR HI TEMP.              
SINCE RUC SHOWING SUBSIDENCE WRMG H85 TEMPS TO ARND -12C TDAY...                
XPCT MAX TO REACH LO 30S MOST ZNS. IWD WL BE A BIT WARMER WITH                  
DOWNSLOPE SELY FLOW.                                                            
06Z MESOETA PERSISTS IN FCSTG SSWLY 45-50KT H85 WNDS INTO LK SUP                
OVRNGT...SO HAVE KEPT GALE WRNG FOR LK SUP.                                     
.MQT...GALE WRNG LK SUP.                                                        
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
600 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
UPDATE IS IN ORDER WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BREAKING OVR KEWEENAW AND            
INVADING MOST OF SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ATTM. IR SAT AND METARS SHOW LOW            
CLOUDS HANGING ON OVR ERN UPR MI NOW ADVANCING INTO SCHOOLCRAFT                 
COUNTY. BELIEVE LK CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND UNTIL THERMAL TROF EVADES            
WHICH IS 18Z PER RUC. THEREFORE WL ADD MORNING CLOUD WORDING.                   
MEANWHILE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SFC HIGH TO              
NORTH HAS CALMED WINDS WHICH LIMITS ANY FLOW OVR LK TO HELP SUSTAIN             
CLOUDS. IN ADDITION EARLIER QVECTOR FORCING IS OFF TO EAST.                     
THUS...SUN FADING BEHIND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON NOW WL BE THE STORY.             
.MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN OR CHALLENGE TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.                
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A  WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING               
FROM CNTRL ND SOUTHWARD INTO COLORADO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.                   
LATEST RUC MODEL PROGGED THIS FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z                    
SATURDAY.  LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CLOUDS ADVANCING                 
NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH CNTRL AND EAST CENTRAL MN.  THE LATEST RUC                 
MODEL INDICATED SOME PHASING OF TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND JET                  
STREAMS.  BOTH THE 850 MB AND 700 MB UPPER AIR CHARTS SHOWED SOME               
MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD.  PREVIOUS THINKING SEEM REASONABLE BY             
KEEPING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES OVER CWA TONIGHT...AND               
OVER THE EASTERN SECTION OF CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  WL MAKE            
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.                                           
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
JVM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
940 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THRU THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY              
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS FROM CAE EASTWARD WERE IN THE 50S AT 13Z AND             
APPROACHING THE 40S OVER EXTREME NW SC. 12Z SOUNDINGS EVEN OVER CHS             
AND GSO SHOW W TO NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH SPEEDS TO 30              
KTS AT CHS BLO 900 MB. THE LATEST RUC PUSHES FRONTAL TROUGH THRU THE            
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY JUST BELOW LAKE                 
WINDS ADVSY CRITERIA...ALTHO WILL PUT NW 15-20 AND GUSTY. PATCHY SC             
CLOUDS OVER THE CWA SHOULD NOT PREVENT PRETTY GOOD DAYTIME HEATING              
TO THE LOWER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON. 850 CAA KICKS IN BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND 40S LOOK GOOD FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT.                 
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BLP                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
320 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
MAIN CHALLENGES TONIGHT INCLUDE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AND WINDS FAR              
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO SHIFT                     
EAST...WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WESTERN SD MOVES EAST              
INTO CWA. WV LOOP AND IR IMAGERY SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY E            
MT THROUGH N AZ. MOST ENERGY IN THIS TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE S END              
...WITH A FAIRLY STRONG S/W EVIDENT IN WV OVER N AZ AND UT. ABR 88D             
SHOWS A BAND OF RETURNS...UP TO ABOUT 24 DBZ...BUT NOTHING SO FAR TO            
CONFIRM ANY PRECIP EMANATING FROM THIS AREA...WHICH PASSED DIRECTLY             
OVER MBG WITH NO PRECIP AND ONLY A 5KFT CIG. ETA IS THE FAVORED                 
MODEL FOR ITS DEPICTION OF MAJOR FEATURES INTIALLY AND AT 18Z...AND             
IT DOES GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SFC AND              
U/L TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS AREA...SO WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SAT AND            
RADAR LOOPS...AS WELL AS A FEW UPSTREAM OBS WITH PRECIP...CAN'T RULE            
OUT                                                                             
CHANCES FOR EASTERN CWA...BUT WILL REMOVE MENTION WEST AND SW. AS               
FAR AS WINDS GO...WILL LIKELY LET WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH ISSUANCE            
OF NEW ZONES. WINDS ARE DECREASING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM W TO E.             
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH EARLY EVENING FAR EAST...BUT ETA AND RUC             
WINDS ALSO SUPPORT THE DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS. AS SFC TROUGH                   
SLIDES...WINDS WILL DECREASE AND SHIFT TO W-NW TONIGHT. FOR                     
SATURDAY...AVN MUCH MORE MOIST THAN IS THE ETA...AND BELIEVE                    
MOISTURE IS OVERDONE. AGAIN...WILL FOLLOW ETA WHICH HAS MUCH DRIER              
AIR AND DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH GENERALLY                 
WESTERLY FLOW AND ANTICIPATED SUNSHINE...BELIEVE TEMPS IN THE WEST              
WILL CLIMB SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE IN WEST.                                     
...EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                       
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION            
OF THE UKMET. NEW AVN IS INDICATING A LITTLE SLOWER MOVEMENT WITH               
THE SURFACE FEATURES THAN THE MRF...SO WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A                  
SLOWED MRF SOLUTION. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA DURING              
THE DAY MONDAY. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK PVA AND 1000-500 MB RH VALUES ABOVE 85                 
PERCENT. WESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE THIS FIRST THING IN THE MORNING            
WHEN TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW. WILL WORD AS A MIX THERE               
WITH JUST RAIN IN THE EAST WHERE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL              
TEMPS RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO COLORADO              
ON TUESDAY WITH A RIDGE FROM IT EXTENDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. H85                 
TEMPS AND THICKNESSES RISE A LITTLE WITH DRYING RH VALUES. THE LARGE            
HIGH THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE            
BUILDS. H85 TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHICH                
SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY MILD DAY.                                                
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
LORENS/AP                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
837 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER                 
EASTERN OK THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.               
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALREADY AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF WEST TN AND                   
NORTHWEST MS. KNQA 88D INDICATING REFLECTIVITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25               
DBZ INTO EASTERN AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE                  
REPORTS ACROSS MOST OF AR SHOWING ONLY LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY TRACE                
AMOUNTS. 00Z LZK UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY BELOW           
900 MB WITH WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST.                                       
LATEST RUN OF THE RUC MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT              
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WILL UPDATE               
ZONES FOR WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. ACROSS NORTHEAST AR..MO                
BOOTHEEL...SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MS...WILL REMOVE TIMING ON POPS             
SINCE SOME LIGHT RAIN ALREADY ABOUT INTO THE AREA. ALSO WILL CHANGE             
WORDING OF INCREASING CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT TO CLOUDY. WILL LEAVE                  
PRESENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE.                                             
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
800 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
WEAK SHALLOW COLD FRONT SLOWLY INCHING TOWARDS GLS. CONSIDERABLE LOW            
CLOUDS ON TOP OF FRONT EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL NIGHT OVER CWFA.                  
PROBLEM 1ST PERIOD WILL BE NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE WEAK FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY MAY WAFFLE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S NORTHERN HALF...NEAR 50               
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER 60S GLS TO HIGH ISLAND COASTAL REGION. BELIEVE           
DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL DROP COASTAL AREA AS FRONT SLOWLY SAG                    
SOUTHWARD. RUC INDICATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING COAST LATER                  
TONIGHT. IF SHALLOW COOL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS           
SHOULD HANG ON...MITIGATING OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT PERHAPS            
COASTAL ZONES. HOWEVER...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE                   
MENTION OF POSSIBLE FOG LATER TONIGHT COASTAL ZONES AND IMMEDIATE               
ADJACENT ZONES. WILL ADJUST 1ST PERIOD TEMPS A CATEGORY DOWNWARD FOR            
CENTRAL AND COASTAL ZONES IN LIGHT OF AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING                 
SITUATION. WILL ALSO TAKE OFF MENTION OF POPS TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL            
DYNAMICS WHICH IS GETTING RAPIDLY WEAKER...WILL STAY N/NE OF CWFA.              
.KHGX...NONE.                                                                   
37/38                                                                           
CLL BE 045/075 046/063 045 225                                                  
IAH BE 051/077 052/069 049 225                                                  
GLS BE 060/074 061/067 055 125                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
800 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
WILL UPDATE A BIT EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS SPREADING W ACROSS NRN            
AND ERN ZNS ATTM. WILL ALSO MENTION F WITH GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO            
WIND AND HIGH DPS ACROSS WRN OK IN SOURCE REGION. SFC LOW DEVELOPING            
ERN NM FCST TO MOVE E ACROSS SW ZNS OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING FETCH                 
THROUGH 09Z.                                                                    
ALSO 00Z RUC/12Z ETA/MESOETA INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT/STRONG H8 WAA             
ACROSS MAINLY SE ZNS AHEAD OF SYSTEM THIS EVE SO WOULD NOT BE                   
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. SINCE POPS/SPRINKLES ALREADY             
MENTIONED WILL NOT ADD THIS TO FCST BUT TAKE OUT LATE WORDING.                  
THCKNS VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID PRECIP SE ZNS               
HOWEVER LATEST RUC AGREES WITH 12Z ETA IN DROPPING H8 TEMPS AOB 0C BY           
12Z SAT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ZNS. IF COLUMN REMAINS SATURATED AS              
KDDC SOUNDING INDICATES WE COULD SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ON N SIDE            
OF SYSTEM AS SFC TEMPS DROP. WILL TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT 00Z RUNS                 
BEFORE ADJUSTING POPS/PRECIP TYPE.                                              
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
COBB                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
940 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC INDICATED A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTG ACROSS THE ERN HALF              
OF THE CWA THRU 21Z..SO WILL LIKELY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHC IN THRU THE              
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.   SFC GRADIENT A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED AND              
VAD WNDS IN THE 10-20KT RANGE IN THE LOWER COUPLE THOUSAND FEET SO              
WILL LOWER WINDS A CAT AND DROP THE CAUTION FOR LAKES.  LOW CLOUDS              
TRYING TO CREEP BACK NWWD OVER THE WRN CWA AND MAY HAVE TO CHANGE               
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE THINNING AS               
THEY ADVANCE.   APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROF FROM THE NW SHOULD HELP               
KICK OUT THE UPR LOW OVER N TX/OK..BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL HAVE               
A DIFFICULT TIME EVER LEAVING AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST TIME                   
HEIGHT VIEW OFF THE ETA.                                                        
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
01/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
920 AM PST FRI MAR 17 2000                                                      
SATELLITE PICTURES AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREAS OF                     
VIRGA/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FCST AREA WILL            
BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HAVE ALREADY                 
ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE TO SPEED THINGS UP. AS PRECIP WAS PASSING OVER             
THE KOTX RADAR SITE...BASE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SUGGESTED THE PRECIP            
WAS FALLING ABOUT AS LOW AS 2500 FEET BEFORE MOSTLY EVAPORATING...SO            
THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS MAY NOT GET ANYTHING.                                     
NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH THE 15Z RUC SUGGESTING                
HEALTHY 850 MB WARM ADVECTION COMMENCING ACROSS THE AREA BY 03Z.                
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS...SO WILL NEED TO           
KEEP THIS IN MIND ON THE AFTN PKG. WILL UPDATE ZONES AGAIN AROUND               
NOON TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING.                                             
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 045/034/046 258                                                             
CQV 049/032/047 258                                                             
S86 044/032/044 248                                                             
COE 045/033/045 248                                                             
WWP 044/031/043 248                                                             
LWS 053/039/054 147                                                             
MOS 047/035/050                                                                 
EAT 047/034/048 156                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
1230 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:  CLOUD TOPS COOLING RAPIDLY UPSTREAM OVR                 
WY AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING 300-500MB POT VORT AND FNT LEFT QUAD OF               
110+ KT JET TRACKING SEWRD TOWARD NRN UT ATTM. PCPN NOW SHOWING UP              
ON THE REGION NEXRAD NETWORK (NOWRAD) ACRS SERN ID..NRN UT AND WRN              
WY.  LATEST RUC..ETA..NGM AND AVN ALL SHOW THIS ROGUE POT VORT NOT              
ON ERLY MDL RUNS...TRACKING SEWRD OVR NERN CO DURING THE NXT 12                 
HRS OR SO.  SFC-850 MB WIND AND PRES FIELDS ALSO SHOW A WK SURGE UP             
IN SERN WY ATTM SLIDING SWRD ACRS NERN CO PLAINS NXT 6-9 HRS.                   
MEANWHILE NWLY BNDRY LYR WINDS PROGD TO VEER ARND TO A N-NELY DIR AND           
INCREASE IN SPD DURING MRNG HRS ON SAT.  NGM SHOWS UPWARDS OF 2-3               
INCH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SAT AFTN OVR THE NERN PLNS WITH AN ADDITIONAL        
1-3 INCHES IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS.  AVN SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME BY 18Z/SAT...         
WITH AS MUCH AS 4-5 INCH TOTALS ON ERN PORTIONS OF NERN PLNS AND 1-3            
INCHES IN THE MTNS BY 00Z/SUN.  WHAT A STICKY WICKET.  IF WE BUY OFF            
ON NEW MDL DATA...WILL HV TO MAKE BIG REVISION TO REST OF 1ST AND               
2ND PDS.  NOT SURE I'LL GO WITH SNOW AMTS AS HIGH AS THOSE GIVEN                
BY THE ETA AND AVN...BUT WILL UP POPS TO AT LEAST 40-50 PCT IN ZNS              
ADJCNT TO THE FNT RNG FTHLS...AND GO WITH LIKELYS IN THE MTNS AND               
REMAINDER OF THE NERN PLNS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING.  BLV MDLS         
A TAD TOO SLOW WITH CLRG ON SAT...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLDY BY AFTN MOST           
OF CWA.  ONCE TROF PASSAGE AND STG NWLY JET MOVS OVRHEAD...SHOULD SEE           
W-NWLY SFC WINDS INCREASING...ESPLY OVR HIR ELVTNS AND ADJCNT PLAINS            
WITH THE ONSET OF CAA.  WILL ADD STRONGER WINDS TO THESE ZONES FOR SAT          
AFTN...ALG WITH THE PSBLY OF BLOWING SNOW ON THE MTN PASSES.  UPDATE            
TO THE ZONE PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY AS WELL AS AN SPS TO BRING              
ATTENTION TO CHANGE TO SHRT TERM FCST.   BAKER                                  
DEN...NONE.                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
230 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY...WEAK (PRE) FRONTAL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT JUST SOUTH OF THE             
AREA...WITH MAIN SURGE OF COOLER AIR INDICATED WELL TO THE NORTH.               
STREAM OF PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN CENTRAL           
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUED.  ONLY RADAR ECHOES OCCURRING WERE BETWEEN             
THE PALM BEACHES AND GRAND BAHAMA...AND WERE MOVING LITTLE.                     
TODAY...MODELS SHOW SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA              
...THOUGH LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THIS WILL BE A TAD SLOWER THAN THE              
00Z RUN.  AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFIED SUBSTANTIALLY BY LONG FETCH                 
THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE              
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER (1.1 TO 1.3).  SHOWER CHANCES LOOK SMALL BUT              
EXPECT THAT THE SURGE OF NORTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW                    
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSHING ONSHORE.  SOUTHERN               
AREAS MAY SEE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE WHERE THERE IS A CLOSER                    
PROXIMITY TO DEEPER MOISTURE.  GIVEN THE VERY LOW GUIDANCE POPS FOR             
TODAY...WILL GO WITH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WERE                 
20-30 PERCENT IS OKAY.  SKY COVER WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SINCE IT             
WILL NOT BE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY.                                                
SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER NORTH WITH PLACEMENT OF               
SURFACE LOW.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE              
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION               
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST SO RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SMALL.               
BREEZY EAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MODIFIED. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE (STRATOCUMULUS) AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD                  
RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY DAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE DIVERGENCE SETTING UP BETWEEN              
JET ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF AND DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING                  
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL                 
TREND SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST WIND FIELDS WILL ROTATE NORTHWEST OF              
THE AREA WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WEAKENING SUBSTANTIALLY DURING                
MONDAY.  THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE            
POPS.                                                                           
MARINE...FORECAST LOOKS A LITTLE TRICKY FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS               
AND SEAS WILL NOT BE AT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA INITIALLY BUT THEY            
SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY.  WILL START OFF WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15             
KNOT RANGE AND TREND THEM UP...BY (OR DURING) THE AFTERNOON TO 15 TO            
20 KNOTS.  EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE            
REACHED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.                                                      
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
DAB BE 073/063 073/064 079 1123                                                 
MCO BE 078/063 077/062 081 1123                                                 
MLB BE 076/068 075/068 081 1123                                                 
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
AVIATION/FIRE WX...DECKER                                                       
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
255 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
WHILE A FEW DETAILS ABOUT OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARE BECOMING CLEARER...MANY           
POSSIBILITIES REMAIN INCLUDING SOME BIG QUESTIONS WITH TIMING. IN THE           
SHORT TERM...CLOUD COVER THE MAIN QUEST TDA. CURRENTLY THE H85 FRONT            
IS BOGGING DOWN ACROSS THE NRN CWFA AND ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE             
RESIDING TO CREATE AN EXPANDING STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE ERN PART OF             
S CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. RH PROGS FROM THE 00Z MODELS SHOW A              
SHORT DECREASING TREND IN H85 MOISTURE BTWN 12Z-18Z TDA BUT THE RUC             
MAY HAVE A BETTER GRIP ON THE SITUATION. IT SEEMS THAT THE ATLC                 
STRATO-CU WILL EVENTUALLY BLEND WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST            
TO THE WEST TO PRODUCE A DAY WITH VRBL CLDS BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS             
TIL RELEASE TIME. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE A BIT WARMER THIS RUN BUT DO             
NOT PLAN TO ALTER MAX TEMPS IN THE ZONES TOO MUCH AND WINDS LOOK                
GOOD.                                                                           
TONIGHT...COASTAL TROF STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE AND PLAN TO LEAVE CLOUDS            
AND SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THE FCST. THE ETA IS THE QUICKEST MODEL TO           
INTRO LIFT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM AND ALL GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS           
AT SOME ACTIVITY ADVECTING OFF THE ATLC BY LATE NIGHT.                          
ON SUNDAY...SHOULD BE A LOT OF STRATO-CU ENCOMPASSING THE FA AND WDLY           
SCT SHOWERS AROUND...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE PRIOR TO THE            
INCREASING OMEGA FIELDS LATE IN THE DAY. PLAN TO GO WITH 20-30 POPS             
COASTAL ZONES TO GOOD CHC INLAND SE GEORGIA. IT IS LIKELY THE WEDGE             
WILL BE BETTER DEFINED THAN THE MODELS INDICATE AND WILL PLAY TEMPS             
ON THE COOLER SIDE...ESPECIALLY INLAND ZONES. SINCE THE NEW NOGAPS              
SUPPORTS A FASTER ETA-LIKE SOLN...PLAN TO INDICATE A LIKELIHOOD OF              
SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED           
LOOKS FINE BUT MAY GO FOR A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AFTER LOOKING AT              
NEW MRF.                                                                        
CWF: FRONT BLASTED THRU GRAYS REEF BTWN 05Z-06Z WITH STRONG SFC PRES            
RISES WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS ERN N CAROLINA. CWF IN GOOD SHAPE WITH               
ONLY SLOW DECREASING TREND IN SEAS AND WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE THESE            
TRENDS. CURRENTLY TIDAL LEVELS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL BUT WILL NEED TO             
MONITOR TRENDS AS WINDS BECOME MORE ENE. WE MAY NEED SOME MENTION OF            
SHLW CSTL FLOODING AT SOME POINT AS ONSHORE FETCH BLDS WITH TIME.               
PRELIM                                                                          
CHS BC 060/048 062/052 068 2402267                                              
SAV BC 062/050 064/054 070 2402377                                              
CHL BC 057/053 060/056 065 2402267                                              
NBC BC 060/049 062/053 068 2402267                                              
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY S SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.                 
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM.                 
RVT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
310 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK            
APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE             
AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS                
SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV              
THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP              
THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW                   
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS        
AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT                
LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP             
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS               
AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE            
NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.             
PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A               
COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT              
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS               
SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC              
OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL            
TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT            
RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE.  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A                 
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT.  STEEP LAPES RATES               
ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A               
GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG              
CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20%. COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE             
JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST. WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST              
TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. SCA'S ARE                
EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT PERSISTING SUN.  THE GRADIENT            
DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.                 
EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINING                   
ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A              
QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON               
TUE.                                                                            
PRELIMS FOLLOW...                                                               
CRP EN 074/053 072/045 3420                                                     
NGP EN 072/055 069/050                                                          
VCT EN 072/050 072/043 4640                                                     
LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220                                                     
75/87                                                                           
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
341 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
MSAS DATA/SUBTRACTION IMAGERY LOOP SHOWING CLOUDS ACROSS THE                    
FORECAST AREA.  HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...EXITING TOWARD NEW                  
ENGLAND...BECOMING LESS OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER.                 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS                  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.  ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
PLAINS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  THIS FEATURE HAS EVOLVED SLOWER AND            
IS STRONGER THAN WHAT THE 17/00Z MODELS SUGGESTED...ALLOWING MORE               
MOISTURE TO BE BROUGHT INTO THIS SYSTEM.  MAIN FOCUS THIS PACKAGE               
WILL BE THE AFFECT THIS SYSTEM HAS ON THE FORECAST AREA.                        
AT 08Z SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE HIGH (NEAR             
20 DEGREES).  LAPS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MARKED DRY BOUNDARY           
LAYER.  AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES TODAY...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME.           
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALL HAVE THE SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE                    
FORECAST AT 06Z TOO FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE 06Z RUC DOES SHOW           
A MORE CORRECT APPROXIMATION...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SYNOPTIC                
EVOLUTION IN THE SHORT TERM.                                                    
AS SEEN UPSTREAM...EXPECT A LONG PERIOD OF RADAR INDICATED                      
PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR               
LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL COUPLED JET STRUCTURE DEVELOPS.               
MID LAYER DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS            
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...CONCURRENT              
WITH UPPER LAYER DIVERGENCE.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE             
COLUMN AND PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                               
SNOW SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.                    
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SCOUR CLOUDS OUT...            
AS IS CURRENTLY THE CASE ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS.  ENOUGH CLEARING            
WOULD ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.                                              
TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST ENOUGH DRYING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM             
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY.  THICKNESS INCREASE AS WELL...                   
SUGGESTING A WARMING TREND.  THIS IS WELL REPRESENTED BY THE CURRENT            
FORECAST AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS.                                
COORDINATED WITH DMX/DVN/MPX/MKX/GRB.                                           
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
935 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY                
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE TO BUOY 41010 AND IS MOVING SOUTHWEST.              
KJAX RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY           
...MOVING ONSHORE FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE TO JACKSONVILLE. EXPECT THE              
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT               
THE NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. 12Z CAPE                 
SOUNDING SHOWS A CAPING INVERSION AROUND 850 MB WITH PWATS AT 1.02              
INCHES...SO SHOWERS SHOULD BE LOW TOP THIS AFTERNOON. 13Z RUC MODEL             
INDICATES NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW                 
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST. CURRENT                 
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                        
MARINE...LATEST 9 AM 41009 BUOY SHOWS ENE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS                 
WITH SEAS AT 3.5 FEET. CWF HANDLES INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THIS              
AFTERNOON WELL...SO ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED.                                
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT                                                       
PUBLIC/MARINE...BORZILLERI                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1123 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
LTST VIS AND SFC OBS SHOW CICS MVG INTO WRN CWA ATTM. WL FRESHEN AM             
WORDING FOR UPDATE. LIGHT PRECIP ON KLOT RADAR IN WRN IL. LTST RUC              
AND ETA HAVE COND PRES DEF OF AT LEAST 50-100MB UNTIL 00Z SO PRECIP             
WL HOLD OFF THIS AFTN AS MSTR MEETS WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS.                      
TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK GOOD.                                                      
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1010 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850            
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER            
HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY                  
CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE                
CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME                      
DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO THE           
SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY...WITH               
06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH STRONGER SW WIND AND              
INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR             
THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND TO CONT FOR CENT/S              
CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA. CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND               
CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH             
T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN              
MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL               
FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND.                                       
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
955 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FROM SHORT             
TERM GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE ONLY CHANCE OF CLEARING WOULD BE FROM DRY              
AIR TRYING TO WORK DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BUT LOOKING AT SATELLITE                
TRENDS THAT DOES NOT SEEM TOO LIKELY. HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME HOLES OR             
THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SO WILL GO WITH MOSTLY               
CLOUDY. COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS SHOULD             
HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. MAY HAVE TO LOWER MAXIMA SOME FOR THIS                  
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE IT IS STILL ONLY              
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.                                                        
CWF...SLIGHT CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST. WILL MOVE NE WIND BECMG E                  
IN SUN PERIOD TO TONIGHT PERIOD. 25 TO 30 KT WINDS CONTINUE AT                  
BOUYS 41004 AND 41008 WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. LATEST RUC...MESOETA...             
AND 12Z ETA INDICATE SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS LATER TODAY WITH WINDS            
BECOMING E OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN ABOUT DEVELOPING COASTAL TROF.               
MESOETA DEVELOPS STONG COASTAL TROF WITH OVER 1 IN PRECIP ALONG                 
COAST OVERNIGHT FROM CHS TO SAV. THIS SEEMS SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE...               
HOWEVER 12Z ETA ALSO INDICATES A WEAKER TROF WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP...           
BUT AXIS OF MAX PRECIP RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT MENTION OF                
PRECIP IN FCST ADEQUATE ATTM.                                                   
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO SAVANNAH OUT 20 NM.             
GA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND OUT 60 NM.                 
/SLB                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
730 AM CST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. BUMPED              
POPS UP TO 50% FROM CRP-VCT. STILL ANTICIPATE SELY WINDS THIS AFTN              
AND WARMER TEMPS AS H85 TROF ADVANCES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE            
SHOULD SHIFT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES THIS              
AFTN.                                                                           
-------------------------------------------------------------                   
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS OVERLAYED ON WV IMAGERY SHOWS A 100KT JET STREAK            
APCHG DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ATTM WITH MOISTURE INCREASING INTO THE STATE             
AHEAD OF IT AS SEEN ON KCRP 88D. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY WAS MEANDERING ALONG THE COAST BECOMING VERY SHALLOW AS                
SELY LOW LVL FLOW INCREASES INTO THE APCHG TROF IN WEST TEXAS. ABV              
THE SFC BNDRY LYR A STRONG CAP RESIDES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY KEEP              
THE WRN ZONES DRY TDY UNTIL PSBLY FROPA TNGT...ALTHOUGH A FEW                   
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. EXPECT BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER THIS        
AFTN AS WARM FNT MOVES INLAND AND H85 TROF ADVANCES TO A CRP-SAT                
LINE...HOWEVER CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SLGTLY BELOW MOS PROGS. CAP             
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE IN THE EAST ALLOWING FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS               
AFTN...EXPECIALLY AS THE LEFT FNT QUAD OF H25 JET INTERACTS WITH THE            
NWD MOVING SFC BNDRY. ETA/AVN MODELS SHOW THE AMS BECMG MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE OVER THE VCT AREA BY MID AFTN WITH CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.             
PROVIDED CLOUDS ERODE AND SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. H5 TEMPS ARE A               
COOL -16C...HOWEVER DUE TO WEAK SHEAR PROFILE...SVR STORMS ARE NOT              
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
FOR TNGTS FCST I WILL TRIM POP DOWN A NOTCH AS LASTEST MODEL RUNS               
SUGGEST MORE OF A SWLY H85 FLOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA. THE BEST CHC              
OF PRECIP WILL BE UP THE COAST TOWARD HOUSTON. SPC REMOVED TSTMS ALL            
TOGETHER IN OUR AREA WHICH I THINK IS TOO HARSH...HOWEVER THEIR SLGT            
RISK AREA LOOKS REASONABLE.  MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT BRINGING A                 
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT TNGT.  STEEP LAPES RATES               
ALOFT...MOD INSTABILITY AND DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A               
GOOD CHC OF STORMS ACROSS THE NERN COUNTIES. BECAUSE OF THE STRONG              
CAP..DRY ENVIRONMENT I WILL TRIM POPS TO 20% IN THE WEST. HOWEVER               
COLD AIR ALOFT MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED STORMS IN THE WEST.              
WILL WORD TNGT'S FCST TURNING WINDY AND COOLER AS FRONT MOVES OFF               
THE COAST. SCA'S ARE EXPECTED IN ALL MARINE AREAS LATE TNGT                     
PERSISTING SUN.  THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF SUN AFTN...THUS TEMPS WILL              
REBOUND UNDER CLEAR SKIES.                                                      
EXTENDED...MRF AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT BRINGING                  
ANOTHER STRONG UPR TROF INTO WEST TEXAS MON AFTN AND TUE. EXPECT A              
QUICK RETURN FLOW MONDAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WAA SHOWERS ON               
TUE AND WED.                                                                    
PRELIMS FOLLOW...                                                               
CRP EN 074/053 072/045 5420                                                     
NGP EN 072/055 069/050                                                          
VCT EN 072/050 072/043 5640                                                     
LRD EN 076/054 070/052 2220                                                     
75/87                                                                           
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
950 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
HI PRESS RIDGE...BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...TO REMAIN OVER NEW ENG             
THRU 12Z SUN. WK CAA AT H85 TODAY TO BE REPLACED BY WK WAA TONITE.              
WK H5 S/W TO MOVE NE ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE...BUT IT/LL HAVE NO               
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS UPR LVLS ARE BONE DRY.                                 
12Z RUC SHOWS LT WINDS AND HI TEMPS IN THE L-M20S TODAY...WHICH SEEMS           
A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY TOUCHING           
20 DEG F ATTM. T1MAX TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S FOR TODAY.                     
SAT PIX SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACRS EASTERN ONT AND WESTERN QUE                
ATTM...BUT THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS SHOULD ERODE WITH TIME AS IT                 
COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE RIDGE THAT/S OVER THE REGION. A FEW WISPS             
OF HIR CLDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ST LAW VLY TODAY...BUT THAT/S IT.               
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS AND WINDS BASED ON CURRENT              
OBS TRENDS. A FEW MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO SECOND PERIOD AS WELL.              
WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER A QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST LAMP                 
DATA.                                                                           
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
230 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
COMPLICATED SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVING OVR CNTRL U.S. ATM.  H5 LOW IN            
THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVR CNTRL KS/NE AS POTENT S/W DROPS S THRU           
RCKYS INTO BASE OF TROF OVR NRN NM.  BAND OF SN THAT MVD THRU ERN IA            
WRN IL THIS MRNG HAS FALLEN APART E OF RGN WITH PATCHY -SN N AND -RA            
S RMNG.  -SN FALLING IN ILL DEFINED DEFORMATION ZN OVR SERN MN NW IA            
WITH MAIN -RN MIX IN MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF DEF ZONE OVR ERN NE/NE KS.          
AT THE SFC RDGNG ASSOCIATED WITH HI PRES OVR NERN U.S. EXTENDS W INTO           
NRN IL/NE IA.                                                                   
MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THIS MRNGS RUNS             
TRENDING TOWARD YESTERDAYS SLOWER/STRONGER AVN SOLN.  AVN STILL THE             
ODD MODEL OUT TDA KEEPING THE SYSTEM FURTHER N THAN NGM/ETA ESPCLY AFT          
24HRS.  BY 18Z TDA AVN SEEMED TO BE DOING A BETTER JOB HANDLING THE             
ENERGY MVNG THRU NRN NM AND IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VARPOR IMAGERY AND            
RUC SOLN.  ETA/NGM ARE SLOER MVNG THIS ENERGY INTO TROF.  BASED ON              
THIS WILL FAVOR THE AVN SOLN FOR THIS FCST.                                     
ALL MODELS SHOW DEF ZONE SHIFTING SE AND SETTING UP FROM ERN KS THRU NW         
MO ERN IA/NRN IL BY 12Z SUN.  SHLD SEE MAINLY SN WITH THIS FEATURE              
TNGT OVR WRN AND NRN SCTNS OF CWA AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES SOME         
AREAS.  SUSTAINED SLY FLOW AT H850 AHD OF DVLPNG SYS WILL PULL WARM             
AIR N THRU MS VALLEY TNGT.  SO RST OF CWA SHLD SEE RN OR -SN CHNG TO            
-RN.  BEST SHOT OF PCPN WILL COME SUNDAY MRNG AS UPR LOW LIFTS NE INTO          
CENTRL MO BRINGING IMPRSV VV BULLSEYE INTO CNTRL IL. UPR LOW THEN MVS           
THUR SRN IL INTO IN BY MON AFTN DECREASING THE THREAT OF RN OVR WRN             
SCTNS OF CWA BUT ERN SCTNS WILL SEE AN EXTENDED PD OF -RN. SHLD BE ABLE         
TO END PCPN OVR E BY TUE MRNG AS UPR RDG BLDS IN FRM W.                         
MOS TMPS LKS GD TNGT CLDS/TMPS KPNG DIURNAL CHNG SMALL.  HI'S SUNDAY            
LK A LITTLE TOO AGRESSIVE AND WILL SHADE A LTL. OTRW MOS LKS RSNBL.             
EXTENDED LOOKS WRM AND DRY AS UPR RDG PARKS OVR MID WEST WITH LARGE             
CLOSED H5 LOW DVLPNG OVR SW U.S.                                                
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
DLF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1137 AM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS           
WI...SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  COMBINATION OF            
LAKE AND DIURNAL CU/SC SPREADING INTO CENTRAL UPPER IN AXIS OF HIGHER           
(MID 20S) SURFACE DEW POINTS.  PROBLEM FOR THE AFTERNOON REVOLVES               
AROUND CLOUD COVER...WITH 12Z APX/DTX RAOBS VERY DRY BELOW 600 MB.              
DIURNAL CLOUDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM TODAY WITH SURFACE DEW              
POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE TEENS...ONLY WESTERN MACKINAC/            
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES MAY SEE A LITTLE SC TODAY.  UPSTREAM RADARS SHOWING           
SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS WI AND WESTERN IL...BUT ONLY LSE              
REPORTING PRECIPITATION IN WI.  WITH MAIN FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION             
(ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SUPPORT FROM FAVORED RRQ OF ANTICYCLONICALLY            
CURVED JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST) REMAINING WEST...NOT EXPECTING ANY          
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN UNTIL THIS EVENING.  WITH          
MID LEVELS INITIALLY QUITE DRY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...LEADING EDGE OF            
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY ERODE AS IT PUSHES EAST...BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT         
MID CLOUD TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER BY            
LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY 06Z MESOETA AND 15Z RUC             
UPDATE.  HAVE REWORDED NORTHEAST LOWER AS JUST MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY...            
THINKING THAT THE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO             
DUSK.  AREA RAOBS SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES...MIXING            
APX SOUNDING OUT TO ONLY 875MB SUPPORTS A HIGH AROUND 40 DEGREES. DID           
BUMP READINGS UP A BIT FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER WHERE SOUTHERLY              
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S.                       
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1645Z.                                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
255 PM MST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                      
SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN AND A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AS OF THIS WRITING             
FROM SANGRES AND SANDIAS TO EASTCENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO               
DONE WITH BY 900 PM PER LATEST RUC2 AS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO             
SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CLEAR WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT              
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING NORTHEAST AND EASTCENTRAL. WILL NOT REISSUE              
WIND ADVISORY AS SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM UPPER FLOW                  
SHORTLY AFTER DARK.                                                             
TOMORROW SHOULD BE NICE AS TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO SCOOT              
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS.                           
A PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE MONDAY AND CARRY INTO THE            
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE                  
AGREEMENT RE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE...COLD...CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE            
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IF MODEL PRECIPATION FROM NCEP/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE              
RUNS AND NOGAPS PAN OUT...THIS MAY BE OUR BEST SHOT AT WIDESPREAD               
PRECIPITATION IN SEVERAL MONTHS. ON A LOCAL NOTE...MID RIO GRANDE               
VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG EAST WINDS STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND               
CONTINUING PERHAPS TILL WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER AIR PATTERN              
APPEARS FAVORABLE /ESPECIALLY THE PROGGED LOCATION OF THE UPPER                 
LOW/.                                                                           
ABQ AN 028/066 038/065 036 38000                                                
SAF AN 020/062 031/062 031 3810-                                                
TCC UN 028/065 038/072 039 38200                                                
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
1110 AM MST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO              
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST QUARTER AND EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES TILL                  
SUNSET. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -25C...SUFFICIENT CAPES              
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDY AREAWIDE WITH RUC2 SOUNDINGS             
SUGGESTING ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM ROW AND SRR NW THROUGH ABQ TO               
FMN. 38                                                                         
.ABQ...WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON NMZ001>003-009>011-015>017-019-             
       026.                                                                     
GB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1226 PM EST SAT MAR 18 2000                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE REQD TO REDUCE WIND...AND REMOVE BREEZY WORDING. SFC PRESS               
GRAD APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SOME...ESP NE CWA...AND SFC OBS                    
REFLECTING SOME DIMINISHING WIND.                                               
.PREV DISC...                                                                   
ISENT LIFT CLDNS ACRS MOST OF S/W SC AND S/E GA AND OFFSHR WTRS. 850            
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ONE HIGH CENTER JUST OFFSHR SC CST N INTO ANOTHER            
HIGH CENTERED NR NY. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A 850 FRONT DENOTED BY                  
CONVERGING WIND...AND A TEMP AND THETA E GRAD STRETCHING ACRS NE                
CWA. CLDNS HAVING A HARD TIME MOVG N OF THIS FEATURE. SOME                      
DISAGREEMENT IN MDL DATA. LTST RUC SHIFTS WEAKNESS IN 850 FLOW TO               
THE SE AND KEEPS MOST MOISTURE GENERALLY WHERE IT IS                            
CURRENTLY...WITH 06Z MESOETA SHIFTING IT MORE TO THE NE...WITH                  
STRONGER SW WIND AND INCR MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVR CWA. SATL             
TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR THE RUC. NEVERTHELESS...APPEARS MSTLY CLDY COND            
TO CONT FOR CENT/S CWA...AND WILL LIKELY KEEP PC WORDING NE CWA.                
CAA/NE SFC FLOW AND CLD CVR WILL MAKE IT HARD TO REACH FCST                     
MAX...ESP C/S. LTST 12Z FRH T1 TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH ONLY ABT 10                
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS MORN MIN. WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAXES AT LEAST            
A CAT. CURRENT OBS AND MDL FCST SUPPORT CONT WORDING OF BREEZY COND.            
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc