AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
945 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THIS ENTIRE WEEK...LIFTING                
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN AL INTO TN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO              
LIFT NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL                    
GA...WITH A PERSISTENT COOL...WEDGE LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS               
THE N-NE PART OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT HAS OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH            
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAS NEVER MADE IT MUCH FURTHER               
NORTH THAN ATL. THE FRONT DRIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN THIS                  
EVENING TO NEAR CSG-MCN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY                      
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH IN EARNEST FRIDAY AS THE                
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH. WE SHOULD FINALLY BE DONE WITH IT AT THAT                
POINT. SUPPORT FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CERTAINLY LESS FRIDAY THAN WE             
HAVE SEEN IN MANY DAYS. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AND DEWPOINTS RISE AS                
LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL COOL AIR MASS OVER N GA IS FINALLY SCOURED OUT.              
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL FINALLY GET INTO A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR                 
MASS...AND EVEN MORE SO ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 70-72 AS FAR                 
NORTH AS ATL. IT WILL FEEL AWFULLY WARM AND STEAMY AFTER THE                    
UNSEASONABLY COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR THE               
UPCOMING WEEK...BUT ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL UPPER                   
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.             
HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE FROM A SW U.S.                
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH TRAILING TROUGHS AFFECTING              
THE SE U.S. WITH A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT AT A                 
MINIMUM DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY THE END OF THE                 
WEEK...CLOSED UPPER RIDGE EVOLVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NC                      
AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE HINT OF A               
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SE U.S. IT               
SUFFICES TO SAY...THAT THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WILL OVERALL BE WET AND              
HUMID WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MOST DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL               
FINALLY RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN                 
THERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
GFS MODEL HANDLED CONVECTION THE BEST TODAY...AND WAS REALLY THE                
ONLY MODEL TO PROPERLY DEPICT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION FROM S AL INTO            
CENTRAL GA AS IT OCCURRED. ETA HAS OVERALL BEEN FAIRLY POOR WITH                
DEPICTION OF PRECIPITATION AREAS. GOOD 850MB AND UPPER JET OVER THE             
AREA COMBINED WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT...-12C AT                         
500MB...PROVIDED FOR THE SEVERE CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS                        
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A            
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT AS BEST DYNAMICS AND                   
SUPPORT LIFT INTO N GA OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO JUST CHANCE              
CATEGORY OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS REMAINING              
IN THE N CENTRAL/NE. THUNDER THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT               
SOME HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE. AFTER CONSIDERABLE CONSTERNATION                
EARLIER...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.              
DYNAMICS WILL BE QUITE WEAK ON FRIDAY...BUT AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD            
BE IN PLACE WITH BETTER HEATING. POPS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON               
MODEL MOISTURE PROGS/MOS GUIDANCE. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN             
THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE WEDGE...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE            
MADE. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST TWO                
PERIODS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...APPEARS FRONT JUST S OF FFC AND CONVECTION CONTINUES                
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL LIFT FAR            
ENOUGH NORTH DURING THE EVENING TO PUT N GA IN THE MORE UNSTABLE                
AIR. RUC SHOWS FRONT NEARLY STALLED JUST S OF ATL. AREA OF TRW OVER             
NE AL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. BOTTOM               
LINE IS PROBABLY JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND ATL DURING THE                 
EVENING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 15-25 HND FT BUT CIGS AGAIN BLO 1 THSD FT             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY IN UNTIL AROUND 15Z FRI.             
WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY 8-10 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT COULD GET MORE                
VARIABLE AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS. THEY WILL BE GOING INTO THE SOUTHWEST            
FRIDAY MORNING...PROBABLY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND WE GET SOME             
MIXING.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         62  76  65  84 /  70  40  20  30                                
ATHENS          62  76  65  87 /  70  50  30  20                                
GAINESVILLE     59  73  63  84 /  70  50  30  20                                
ROME            63  79  66  87 /  60  40  30  30                                
COLUMBUS        66  84  68  89 /  60  40   5  30                                
MACON           67  84  67  90 /  60  40   5  30                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RAB/JRN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
530 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WEDGE HOLDING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN               
AND SCOUR OUT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL                 
GEORGIA BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO              
FRIDAY. WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN             
ALABAMA AT THE MOMENT. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SPREAD NORTHEAST                     
AFFECTING MUCH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO                   
TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST WITH GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK            
OKAY. MODELS INDICATING SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM               
THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT                    
NORTHWARD. WILL SEE A RETURN TO A MORE SUMMERTIME CONVECTION PATTERN            
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE               
AREA. LOW CHANCE POPS AND WARMER TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE RULE.                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA MONDAY. EXTENDED MODELS                
SIMILAR WITH WEAK UPPER TROF PUSHING ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY/                   
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT BACK DOORING  INTO            
NORTH GEORGIA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. ALL IN ALL...UNSETTLED WEATHER                
PATTERN IN THE CARDS AND BEST BET SEEMS TO CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS             
THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...APPEARS FRONT JUST S OF FFC AND CONVECTION CONTINUES                
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE FRONT WILL LIFT FAR            
ENOUGH NORTH DURING THE EVENING TO PUT N GA IN THE MORE UNSTABLE                
AIR. RUC SHOWS FRONT NEARLY STALLED JUST S OF ATL. AREA OF TRW OVER             
NE AL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EASTWARD. BOTTOM               
LINE IS PROBABLY JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND ATL DURING THE                 
EVENING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 15-25 HND FT BUT CIGS AGAIN BLO 1 THSD FT             
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY IN UNTIL AROUND 15Z FRI.             
WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY 8-10 KTS THIS EVENING...BUT COULD GET MORE                
VARIABLE AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS. THEY WILL BE GOING INTO THE SOUTHWEST            
FRIDAY MORNING...PROBABLY AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND WE GET SOME             
MIXING.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         62  76  65  84 /  70  40  20  30                                
ATHENS          62  76  65  87 /  70  50  30  20                                
GAINESVILLE     59  73  63  84 /  70  50  30  20                                
ROME            63  79  66  87 /  60  40  30  30                                
COLUMBUS        66  84  68  89 /  60  40   5  30                                
MACON           67  84  67  90 /  60  40   5  30                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED HEADERS                                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO EASTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD             
OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LAMP GUIDANCE AND      
12Z HIGH RES ETA BOTH INDICATE THAT CURRENT PACKAGE IS A BIT TOO                
OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THIS REGION WITH               
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.  WILL               
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN...ENHANCE CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASE POPS FROM                
I-55 EAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NW RAIN CHANCES GET TODAY AND TONIGHT             
AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR TN/MS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE INTO THE               
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QPF                
FURTHER NW ACROSS IL TODAY WITH GFS AND NAM HAVING QPF AS FAR WEST              
AS THE IL RIVER WHILE CANADIAN HAS LIGHT QPF WEST TO THE MS RIVER.              
RUC THROUGH 18Z HAS QPF ACROSS EASTERN IL EAST OF I-55 AND WILL TEND            
TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE.                                                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF A RANTOUL TO                 
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHILE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY                
ALONG AND SE OF I-70. ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID MS               
VALLEY. SURFACE MAP HAS 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN MS               
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. 1025 MB             
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND RIDGING WESTWARD                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING                     
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER KEEPING TEMPS MILDER TO START THE               
DAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF             
I-74 TO THE LOWER 60S FROM TAYLORVILLE AND MATTOON SOUTH.                       
MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LIFT NE INTO              
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI WHILE SURFACE LOW NEAR TN/MS BORDER                   
EVOLVES INTO A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS KY/TN. ISENTROPIC LIFT               
AFFECTS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 TODAY AND THAT IS WHERE                       
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE WABASH            
RIVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SE TODAY.             
MORE CLOUDS TODAY KEEPS TEMPS COOLER ESPECIALLY SE IL WITH HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL AND NOW AS COOL AS 66 BY              
LAWRENCEVILLE WHICH SEEMS TOO COOL FOR EARLY JUNE. HAVE SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN IL TONIGHT WHILE CHANCE POPS JUST            
EAST OVER INDIANA AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF                
NEARBY.                                                                         
SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST FRI AS SKIES BECOME              
PARTLY SUNNY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.              
WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST AND LOWER 80S WEST. NEARLY A 10              
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM WARMER FWC HIGHS AND COOLER MAV HIGHS AND                
WENT IN BETWEEN CLOSER TO MET. FRI SHOULD STAY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO LIFT A WARM             
FRONT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL FRI NIGHT BRINING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION            
TO WESTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.                                        
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
WARMER AND MORE HUMID SAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL               
AND IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FLORIDA WEATHER WITH                 
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. CHANCE OF CONVECTION               
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55 WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF                
SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY AS FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY MOVES SE THROUGH IL MON. GULF OPEN FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD            
ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO IL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT            
WAVES IN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO INTERACT WITH AND BRING BEST CHANCES            
OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SE IL SINCE MAY 19. STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY AS EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER WITH                
POSITION OF HOW FAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BARKER/HUETTL                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH INTO EASTERN FORECAST AREA AHEAD             
OF SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LAMP GUIDANCE AND      
12Z HIGH RES ETA BOTH INDICATE THAT CURRENT PACKAGE IS A BIT TOO                
OPTIMISTIC ON CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THIS REGION WITH               
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 60S.  WILL               
ADJUST TEMPS DOWN...ENHANCE CLOUD COVER...AND INCREASE POPS FROM                
I-55 EAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAR NW RAIN CHANCES GET TODAY AND TONIGHT             
AS MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR TN/MS WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE INTO THE               
UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING QPF                
FURTHER NW ACROSS IL TODAY WITH GFS AND NAM HAVING QPF AS FAR WEST              
AS THE IL RIVER WHILE CANADIAN HAS LIGHT QPF WEST TO THE MS RIVER.              
RUC THROUGH 18Z HAS QPF ACROSS EASTERN IL EAST OF I-55 AND WILL TEND            
TO FOLLOW THIS ROUTE.                                                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS ALONG AND EAST OF A RANTOUL TO                 
TAYLORVILLE LINE WHILE GROUND TRUTH REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY                
ALONG AND SE OF I-70. ELONGATED MID LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE MID MS               
VALLEY. SURFACE MAP HAS 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN MS               
WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. 1025 MB             
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND RIDGING WESTWARD                
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING                     
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE IL RIVER KEEPING TEMPS MILDER TO START THE               
DAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF             
I-74 TO THE LOWER 60S FROM TAYLORVILLE AND MATTOON SOUTH.                       
MID LEVEL LOW TO OPEN UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND LIFT NE INTO              
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY FRI WHILE SURFACE LOW NEAR TN/MS BORDER                   
EVOLVES INTO A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS KY/TN. ISENTROPIC LIFT               
AFFECTS AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-55 TODAY AND THAT IS WHERE                       
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR THE WABASH            
RIVER. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM LAWRENCEVILLE SE TODAY.             
MORE CLOUDS TODAY KEEPS TEMPS COOLER ESPECIALLY SE IL WITH HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER 70S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COOL AND NOW AS COOL AS 66 BY              
LAWRENCEVILLE WHICH SEEMS TOO COOL FOR EARLY JUNE. HAVE SLIGHT                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN IL TONIGHT WHILE CHANCE POPS JUST            
EAST OVER INDIANA AS SOME MOISTURE LINGERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF                
NEARBY.                                                                         
SHOULD SEE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST FRI AS SKIES BECOME              
PARTLY SUNNY AS UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.              
WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST AND LOWER 80S WEST. NEARLY A 10              
DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM WARMER FWC HIGHS AND COOLER MAV HIGHS AND                
WENT IN BETWEEN CLOSER TO MET. FRI SHOULD STAY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL               
RIDGE BUILDING INTO IL. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS TO LIFT A WARM             
FRONT NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL FRI NIGHT BRINING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION            
TO WESTERN AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE EAST.                                        
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
WARMER AND MORE HUMID SAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF CENTRAL IL               
AND IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL FEEL MORE LIKE FLORIDA WEATHER WITH                 
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. CHANCE OF CONVECTION               
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-55 WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF                
SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED CONVECTION CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY AS FRONTAL            
BOUNDARY MOVES SE THROUGH IL MON. GULF OPEN FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD            
ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO IL FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHORT            
WAVES IN SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO INTERACT WITH AND BRING BEST CHANCES            
OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND SE IL SINCE MAY 19. STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT              
CHANCE OF CONVECTION AFTER MONDAY AS EXTENDED MODELS DIFFER WITH                
POSITION OF HOW FAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS SE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
BARKER/HUETTL                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
211 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)                                                 
WATER VAPOR SHOWS LARGE CUT OFF SYSTEM SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN                   
SASKATCHEWAN. FAST FLOW ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH EMBEDDED                     
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE ACROSS                    
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF              
ASSOCIATED FORCING. OVERNIGHT MCS LAID DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                 
WHICH AT 18Z WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM LAMAR COLORADO TO HILL CITY.              
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE IN KANSAS              
AND NEBRASKA WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER CLEARING             
WAS NOTED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND RUCII INSISTS ON AT LEAST                 
PARTIAL CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. ASSUMING                
SURFACE HEATING DOES OCCUR...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE               
WITH CAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE                
AROUND 40KTS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION            
TO OCCUR OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF             
MID LEVEL FORCING...SPREADING EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA. OTHER STORMS MAY FIRE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR               
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES. A FEW SUPERCELLS LIKELY GIVEN SHEAR AND             
INSTABILITY...THEN EVOLVING INTO AND OVERNIGHT MCS.                             
FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC SITUATION CHANGES VERY LITTLE OWING TO SLOW                   
MOVEMENT OF CUT OFF LOW TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE                  
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND                  
EVENING. SURFACE FRONT WILL ARC FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST                 
KANSAS THEN NORTH INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. STORMS LIKELY TO                  
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THEN MOVE EAST            
INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE             
STORMS WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES FORECAST 1000-2000 J/KG AND            
BULK SHEAR AGAIN NEAR 40KTS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.             
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN UNDER FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING. TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE SHORT RANGE MODELS              
WITH THAT FEATURE. AFTER TWO DAYS OF CONVECTION MESOSCALE DETAILS               
VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS POINT AS WELL. BETTER UPPER                  
SUPPORT ON SATURDAY WARRANTS CHANCE POPS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON                 
SUNDAY FOR NOW WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SHORTWAVE                
ENERGY SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA.                                                  
.LONG TERM... (MONDAY-THURSDAY)                                                 
GENERAL UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE                   
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL VERY SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY               
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE               
WESTERN CONUS.                                                                  
UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN             
WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER HEIGHT          
FALLS WILL BEGIN OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD               
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN            
COLORADO. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL STAY WELL TO THE                     
NORTH...WHILE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE EAST. MONDAY APPEARS TO              
BE THE BETTER DAY FOR CONVECTION BASED ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT              
TOUGH TO FIND INITIATING MECHANISM OTHER THAN SURFACE HEATING NEAR              
LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO. TUESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A LITTLE                
FURTHER EAST...AND CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG SHARPENING DRY            
LINE. TOUGH CALL ON WHERE THAT DRY LINE WILL BE LOCATED...BUT ENOUGH            
UNCERTAINTY TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN HALF.                              
GFS ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE             
AREA UNDER WARM RIDGING ALOFT. SAME DISCREPANCIES LIKELY TO CARRY               
INTO THURSDAY. WILL AVERAGE OUT THE 850MB TEMPERATURES TO DERIVE                
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN EITHER MODEL                
SOLUTION FOR MORE THAN A SILENT 10 POP AT THIS POINT.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL/TIMING SAT THROUGH MON.              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER               
SRN SASK EXTENDING INTO INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A DOWNSTREAM RDG              
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SRN STREAM VORTS WERE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA               
AND WRN TEN. AT THE SFC...ACYC SSE FLOW PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE              
AREA. SUNSHINE WITH STRONG MIXING HAS PUSHED DEWPOINTS INTO THE                 
LOWER 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. VIS LOOP SHOWED MAIN CLEAR SKIES               
WITH CU FIELD TOUCHING THE FAR WEST AND CI BAND SHIFTING INTO FAR E             
UPR MI.                                                                         
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME CI MAY SPREAD INTO W UPR MI...PER SATELLITE             
TRENDS AND NAM 400 RH PROG...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR OVER              
THE REST OF UPR MI. A TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE W WITH DOWNSLOPE                
FLOW SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH. HOWEVER...OVER               
THE CNTRL AND EAST...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO              
FALL AOB GUIDANCE VALUES WITH INLAND READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER               
40S.                                                                            
FRI...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MID LEVEL RDG FIRMLY IN CONTROL            
WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BTWN 700-600 MB                  
KEEPING DRY WEATHER GOING. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF              
CU EXPECTED WITH MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER UPR MI. WITH SIMILAR              
850 MB TEMPS FCST AS THU (13C-14C)...PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS             
SHOULD ALSO CLIMB AOA GUIDANCE VALUES WITH SOME LOW 80S AGAIN OVER              
INLAND AREAS AND ONLY SLIGHT INLAND MODIFICATION OFF OF LK SUPERIOR             
OVER N CNTRL UPR MI.                                                            
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT...FCST TRENDED TOWARD THE 12Z                          
GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN RATHER THAN THE 12Z NAM. OUTLIER NAM PROPAGATION             
OF THE BAJA VORT EASTWARD...COMPARED TO GLBL MDLS ABSORPTION INTO               
THE NRN PLAINS LOW(PER HPC DISC)...SEEMS TO ALLOW MORE PROGRESSIVE              
MID LVL TREND WITH SHRTWV FROM NRN UT AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT            
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT BRINGING AREA OF PCPN THROUGH UPR MI LATE               
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE GFS/UKMET WITH A MORE PROMINENT MID LEVEL               
RDG WOULD DELAY PCPN TO MAINLY LATER SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT                 
WHEN STRONGER QVECTOR CONV (UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE/DIV) AND LLJ/                    
LIFT AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED/WARM FRONTS MOVES IN. THE 12Z GFS                    
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE WITH SLOWER PCPN ONSET              
THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY             
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS IN WAA ISENTROPIC            
LIFT REGIME TO ADD SHRA/TSRA PCPN CHANCES FOR ALL BUT ERN PORTION OF            
THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.                                                           
SUN...THE SLOWER/STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT UKMET WAS PREFERRED                   
WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW. THIS WOULD KEEP BETTER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES               
GOING THROUGH SUN COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH            
MORE QUICKLY AS ITS MID LVL AND SFC LOW MOVES INTO NRN ONTARIO.                 
MON-THU...MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN PROGRESSION OF 500 MB            
LOW MON INTO TUE AND STRENGTH OF THE RDG INTO THE LAKES BY WED-THU.             
THE 00Z/06Z/02 GFS REMAIN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE H5 AND SFC LOW              
COMPARED TO THE 00Z/02 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. WHILE KEEPING THE MID              
LVL TROF AND SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE WRN LAKES WOULD SUPPORT BETTER               
PCPN CHANCES...EITHER SCENARIO WOULD LEAVE ENOUGH UNSTABLE AIR OVER             
THE REGION SO THAT ANY TRAILING SHRTWVS OR WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES COULD            
SET OFF SOME SHRA/TSRA. TUE-THU...THE GFS...SUPPORTED BY THE                    
CANADIAN MDL AND GFS ENS MEAN...SUGGESTS MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING              
WILL BRING KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION WITH MAIN SFC                
BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. 06Z/02 DEWPOINTS AND ASSOCIATED            
CAPE/LI FROM TUE INTO WED SEEMED A BIT OVERDONE...SO NO DIURNAL                 
SHRA/TSRA WERE ADDED AT THIS POINT. MID LEVEL WARMING/DRYING UNDER              
THE RDG SHOULD ALSO LIMIT CONVECTION POTENTIAL.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
338 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DEALS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND                 
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND.  INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING               
TOGETHER FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                
TO FORM AND CROSS THE REGION...EITHER LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY                
NIGHT.  FIRST OFF...THE GULF IS OPEN AND DEEP MOISTURE IS ALREADY               
STREAMING UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                 
OF OVER 1.5 INCHES ARE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CONFLUENCE OF              
THE MS AND OH RIVERS REGION.  SECOND THIS MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY LEADS           
TO INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED BY HEATING ON SATURDAY.                  
FINALLY A RATHER STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER               
LOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS HEADED TOWARD THE                  
CENTRAL PLAINS.  ULTIMATELY IT TRACKS THROUGH OR NEAR SOUTHWEST                 
LOWER MICHIGAN LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS IS TYPICAL OF              
THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...THEY GENERATE A LOW LEVEL JET WITH THE MAIN            
CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THE GFS IS CLEARLY SLOWER            
WITH THIS PROCESS AND SUGGESTS A SATURDAY NIGHT OR LATER EVENT.  THE            
NAM IS MUCH QUICKER...BRINGING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN FOR                     
SATURDAY. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE RUC13...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A               
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS BRINING VALUES UP INTO THE LOW             
60S SATURDAY MORNING.  THIS MODEL INDICATES A RATHER ACTIVE WARM                
FRONT LIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD           
BE OUR BUSIEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND.  CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 3K J/KG            
BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL COMBINED WITH HIGH HELICITY. I WILL KEEP            
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY                
NIGHT. I HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE             
MAIN SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING A DENSER AREA OF RAOBS                             
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN BETTER ASSESS THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT                
NEARS.  I WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT                
SOME OF THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.                                                  
OTHERWISE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES            
PLANNED.   THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN IL AT THIS TIME IS LIFTING SLOWLY              
BUT STEADILY NORTHEAST.  LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE INTO MY                 
SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.                                                 
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WE'LL GET INTO A FAIRLY ACTIVE WX PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD                
WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND PERHAPS                      
TUESDAY... AND THEN AGAIN TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. WE'LL HAVE A CHC              
FOR TSTORMS SUNDAY SINCE PRETTY DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN            
PLACE AS WELL AS INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND                 
AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA GUIDANCE LOOKS DRY FOR OUR AREA SUNDAY, BUT I                
DON'T BELIEVE IT, SINCE IT IS UNDERDONE IN TERMS OF 925-850 MB RH.              
WE'LL GO ALONG WITH 12Z GFS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS OUR PREVIOUS                    
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST TO LEAVE MENTION OF A CHC OF STORMS IN                  
MONDAY'S FORECAST TOO. WE CONSIDERED GOING WITH A DRY FCST TUESDAY              
SINCE IT NOW APPEARS A SFC RIDGE WILL TAKE HOLD OF OUR WX. GFS                  
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE CANADIAN IN SHOWING DRY WX TUE             
INTO WED. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT WE'LL HOLD ONTO MENTION OF A FEW                
STORMS INTO TUE PER COORD WITH DTX/IWX. THE MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO              
REEVALUATE THIS AND MODEL TRENDS WITH REGARD TO PCPN CHANCES                    
TUE/WED. THE WX PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT            
WEEK AS A SHARP H5 TROF MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES AND A                 
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOCUSES CONVECTION ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS ALL               
WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.                          
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJS LAURENS                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
930 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING ONCE IT MOVES            
NORTH INTO THE STABLE COLD DOME. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL                  
CONVERGENCE APPEAR VERY WEAK IN THE MODELS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WITH              
THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK              
ACTING ON A VERY MOIST AIR MASS...ADDITIONAL PRECIP MAY DEVELOP                 
OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS AS THEY ARE. IT            
IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP WILL BE HEAVY AT ANY TIME                         
TONIGHT...BUT AS IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD              
WATCH ALONE. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO FORECAST VALUES AND              
WILL NOT BE CHANGED.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 635 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
AN EARLY UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ADD ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST. AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER NE SC IS                
SPREADING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN               
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. POPS THERE WILL BE RAISED TO               
CATEGORICAL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PUSH INTO THE                         
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SAMPSON COUNTY NEAR THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS WILL            
BE CONTINUED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK BUT              
WILL REASSESS LATER THIS EVENING.                                               
KRAX...WHICH HAD BEEN USING THE STRATIFORM Z-R RELATIONSHIP...WILL              
BE CHANGED TO THE STANDARD Z-R RELATIONSHIP DUE TO THE APPROACHING              
CONVECTION.                                                                     
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 305 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EXTREMELY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND HAS               
REACHED THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NC. NORTHWEST PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE               
STABLE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE ABLE             
TO MOVE ANY FARTHER NW THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. DEEP MOIST               
FLOW AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL             
CONTINUE LIGHTLY POPS... WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE                 
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WEAK LEFT FRONT JET QUAD DYNAMICS              
WILL BE OPTIMAL... EVEN DISCOUNTING THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK            
ON THE GFS. THE WRF BRINGS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE DEEP               
SOUTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC TONIGHT... ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE.              
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN            
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND THE COUNTIES REPORTED CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF              
WATER ON ROADS EARLIER TODAY WHICH CAUSED NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS. WHILE             
THE RAIN TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HEAVY... ENOUGH                 
STEADY MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE A THREAT OF HIGH WATER              
ON ROADS & RISING CREEKS. WILL ISSUE A BORDERLINE FLOOD WATCH FOR               
AREAS FROM LEXINGTON AND ASHEBORO SOUTHWEST TO TROY... ALBEMARLE...             
AND WADESBORO. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A DEGREE OR            
TWO IF THAT FROM CURRENT DEWPOINTS.                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS FROM TX ACROSS             
NW NC AND VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE LOSE THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS               
FRIDAY BUT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD BREAK OUT              
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE                   
EVENING. FORECAST CAPES GET ABOVE 1000 J/KG & THE WIND PROFILE DOES             
VEER A BIT BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT AND THE                 
FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH... BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON               
ANY DISCRETE CELLS TOMORROW. WILL RETAIN THE WEDGE REGIME (AND MORE             
STRATIFORM PRECIP) OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FRI. WITH LOW                      
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE DETAILS FRI... WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR                   
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE               
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTHEAST. BY SATURDAY THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW             
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINS OF THE HYBRID WEDGE              
AIR MASS. WILL HAVE JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS SAT. CURRENT                 
HIGHS LOOK GOOD.                                                                
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON                  
STACKED RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUN THROUGH MON WITH            
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE RAH CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS SUN/MON AND RAIN PROBABILITIES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.              
WEAK 850 MB RETURN FLOW TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FOR            
TUE AS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST... AND WILL CARRY             
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED. THE LATEST GFS RUN             
TAKES THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE EARLY WED WITH 850 MB FLOW                
RETURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY... THEN WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS LATE WED                
INTO THU WITH UPPER VORTICES OVER SW AND ERN CANADA. HOWEVER THE                
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOMES SO WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT THAT IT            
WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY BOUNDARIES OR NOTABLE FORCING                     
MECHANISMS. WILL GO WITH UNMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN CHANCES WED             
NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
MIX OF LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT               
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN FOG                
WITH MINIMALLY BETTER VISIBILITIES TO THE SOUTH. FRONT APPEARS TO BE            
MAKING MINIMAL PROGRESS NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY             
OF FAYETTEVILLE NEAR SUNSET AND NEAR RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT TOWARD             
SUNRISE. MINIMAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IN THE WEST.                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY              
IMPROVING TO IFR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ038-039-073-074-083 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DGS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
635 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
AN EARLY UPDATE WILL BE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ADD ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST. AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER NE SC IS                
SPREADING NORTH AND WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN SANDHILLS/SOUTHERN               
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. POPS THERE WILL BE RAISED TO               
CATEGORICAL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PUSH INTO THE                         
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SAMPSON COUNTY NEAR THE FRONT. LIKELY POPS WILL            
BE CONTINUED ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK BUT              
WILL REASSESS LATER THIS EVENING.                                               
KRAX...WHICH HAD BEEN USING THE STRATIFORM Z-R RELATIONSHIP...WILL              
BE CHANGED TO THE STANDARD Z-R RELATIONSHIP DUE TO THE APPROACHING              
CONVECTION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 305 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                         
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EXTREMELY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND HAS               
REACHED THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NC. NORTHWEST PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE               
STABLE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE ABLE             
TO MOVE ANY FARTHER NW THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. DEEP MOIST               
FLOW AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL             
CONTINUE LIGHTLY POPS... WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE                 
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WEAK LEFT FRONT JET QUAD DYNAMICS              
WILL BE OPTIMAL... EVEN DISCOUNTING THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK            
ON THE GFS. THE WRF BRINGS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE DEEP               
SOUTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC TONIGHT... ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE.              
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN            
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND THE COUNTIES REPORTED CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF              
WATER ON ROADS EARLIER TODAY WHICH CAUSED NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS. WHILE             
THE RAIN TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HEAVY... ENOUGH                 
STEADY MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE A THREAT OF HIGH WATER              
ON ROADS & RISING CREEKS. WILL ISSUE A BORDERLINE FLOOD WATCH FOR               
AREAS FROM LEXINGTON AND ASHEBORO SOUTHWEST TO TROY... ALBEMARLE...             
AND WADESBORO. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A DEGREE OR            
TWO IF THAT FROM CURRENT DEWPOINTS.                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS FROM TX ACROSS             
NW NC AND VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE LOSE THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS               
FRIDAY BUT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD BREAK OUT              
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE                   
EVENING. FORECAST CAPES GET ABOVE 1000 J/KG & THE WIND PROFILE DOES             
VEER A BIT BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT AND THE                 
FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH... BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON               
ANY DISCRETE CELLS TOMORROW. WILL RETAIN THE WEDGE REGIME (AND MORE             
STRATIFORM PRECIP) OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FRI. WITH LOW                      
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE DETAILS FRI... WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR                   
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE               
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTHEAST. BY SATURDAY THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW             
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINS OF THE HYBRID WEDGE              
AIR MASS. WILL HAVE JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS SAT. CURRENT                 
HIGHS LOOK GOOD.                                                                
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON                  
STACKED RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUN THROUGH MON WITH            
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE RAH CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS SUN/MON AND RAIN PROBABILITIES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.              
WEAK 850 MB RETURN FLOW TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FOR            
TUE AS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST... AND WILL CARRY             
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED. THE LATEST GFS RUN             
TAKES THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE EARLY WED WITH 850 MB FLOW                
RETURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY... THEN WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS LATE WED                
INTO THU WITH UPPER VORTICES OVER SW AND ERN CANADA. HOWEVER THE                
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOMES SO WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT THAT IT            
WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY BOUNDARIES OR NOTABLE FORCING                     
MECHANISMS. WILL GO WITH UNMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN CHANCES WED             
NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
MIX OF LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT               
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN FOG                
WITH MINIMALLY BETTER VISIBILITIES TO THE SOUTH. FRONT APPEARS TO BE            
MAKING MINIMAL PROGRESS NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY             
OF FAYETTEVILLE NEAR SUNSET AND NEAR RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT TOWARD             
SUNRISE. MINIMAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IN THE WEST.                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY              
IMPROVING TO IFR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ038-039-073-074-083 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DGS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
305 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...                                                        
THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED EXTREMELY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND HAS               
REACHED THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NC. NORTHWEST PIEDMONT REMAINS QUITE               
STABLE AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE ABLE             
TO MOVE ANY FARTHER NW THAN THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT. DEEP MOIST               
FLOW AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL             
CONTINUE LIGHTLY POPS... WITH THE HIGHEST IN THE WEST WHERE THE                 
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND WEAK LEFT FRONT JET QUAD DYNAMICS              
WILL BE OPTIMAL... EVEN DISCOUNTING THE APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK            
ON THE GFS. THE WRF BRINGS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE DEEP               
SOUTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO NC TONIGHT... ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE.              
THE FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE CWA RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN            
SINCE LAST NIGHT AND THE COUNTIES REPORTED CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF              
WATER ON ROADS EARLIER TODAY WHICH CAUSED NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS. WHILE             
THE RAIN TONIGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TERRIBLY HEAVY... ENOUGH                 
STEADY MODERATE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO POSE A THREAT OF HIGH WATER              
ON ROADS & RISING CREEKS. WILL ISSUE A BORDERLINE FLOOD WATCH FOR               
AREAS FROM LEXINGTON AND ASHEBORO SOUTHWEST TO TROY... ALBEMARLE...             
AND WADESBORO. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO DROP MORE THAN A DEGREE OR            
TWO IF THAT FROM CURRENT DEWPOINTS.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS FROM TX ACROSS             
NW NC AND VA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE LOSE THE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS               
FRIDAY BUT AT LEAST SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD BREAK OUT              
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE                   
EVENING. FORECAST CAPES GET ABOVE 1000 J/KG & THE WIND PROFILE DOES             
VEER A BIT BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT AND THE                 
FREEZING LEVEL IS FAIRLY HIGH... BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A WATCH ON               
ANY DISCRETE CELLS TOMORROW. WILL RETAIN THE WEDGE REGIME (AND MORE             
STRATIFORM PRECIP) OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT FRI. WITH LOW                      
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE DETAILS FRI... WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR                   
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO THE               
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTHEAST. BY SATURDAY THE LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW             
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINS OF THE HYBRID WEDGE              
AIR MASS. WILL HAVE JUST ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS SAT. CURRENT                 
HIGHS LOOK GOOD.                                                                
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON                  
STACKED RIDGING DOMINATING THE SOUTHEAST STATES SUN THROUGH MON WITH            
WEAK LEE TROUGHING OVER THE RAH CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL            
TEMPS SUN/MON AND RAIN PROBABILITIES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.              
WEAK 850 MB RETURN FLOW TRIES TO BRING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FOR            
TUE AS A BAGGY UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE WEST... AND WILL CARRY             
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED. THE LATEST GFS RUN             
TAKES THIS WEAK UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE EARLY WED WITH 850 MB FLOW                
RETURNING TO NORTHWESTERLY... THEN WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWS LATE WED                
INTO THU WITH UPPER VORTICES OVER SW AND ERN CANADA. HOWEVER THE                
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN BECOMES SO WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT THAT IT            
WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY BOUNDARIES OR NOTABLE FORCING                     
MECHANISMS. WILL GO WITH UNMENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN CHANCES WED             
NIGHT INTO THU. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUE-THU.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MIX OF LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECT               
WIDESPREAD LIFR CEILINGS AS MIDNIGHT APPROACHES. AFTER MIDNIGHT                 
VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE MILE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN FOG                
WITH MINIMALLY BETTER VISIBILITIES TO THE SOUTH. FRONT APPEARS TO BE            
MAKING MINIMAL PROGRESS NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY             
OF FAYETTEVILLE NEAR SUNSET AND NEAR RALEIGH AND ROCKY MOUNT TOWARD             
SUNRISE. MINIMAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IN THE WEST.                   
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY              
IMPROVING TO IFR.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ038-039-073-074-083 FROM 6 PM TONIGHT TO 4                   
AM FRIDAY.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RLH/HARTFIELD                                                      
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...RLH                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
350 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                   
AREA IS ON THE MOIST EAST SIDE OF STACKED LOW OVER THE MID                      
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW IS PROGGED TO TRAVEL SLOWLY EAST UP THE OHIO            
VALLEY DURING THE SHORT TERM, WITH ILN AREA EXPERIENCING MOISTURE               
ADVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                       
KEPT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. WITH NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETTER MID LEVEL             
SUPPORT, RAISED POPS ON FRIDAY, LIKELY IN SOUTH, HIGH CHANCE IN                 
NORTH. KEPT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL                
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SYSTEM EXITING NORTHEAST.                              
LOWERED TEMPS FRIDAY WITH RAIN EXPECTED. REST OF TEMPS RELATIVELY               
UNCHANGED.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
HAVE OPTED CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD.  WARM FRONT LIFTS              
NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON SATURDAY.  SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPS SO HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS              
TIME. REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AND SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS                 
BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR END OF EXTENDED                
PERIOD.  HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AND THE RUC                
SHOWS THIS TREND OF MUCH LESS PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  CIGS               
WERE MVFR AT KCVG AND KLUK...WITH VFR ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME...BUT              
THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL PROGRESS INTO MVFR CIGS AS WELL OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                                                             
AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AFTER 06Z...CHANCE OF PCPN WILL INCREASE                
SOUTH TO NORTH 06Z-12Z...WITH THE NAM PRODUCING MORE QPF THAN THE               
GFS AFTER 12Z.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN MUCH HIGHER MET THAN MAV POPS.             
WILL CARRY VCSH AND PERHAPS TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY REMAINS            
MEAGER...SO THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS                    
MORNING.  THE PCPN WAS EXHIBITING MUCH LESS COVERAGE JUST SOUTH OF              
THE OHIO RIVER.  AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE BEST LIFT WILL               
MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA.  WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY              
BEHIND THIS...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY.  CURRENT FCST              
POINTS TO THIS...SO WILL MAINLY TWEAK SOME AFTERNOON WORDING.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA AFTER 18Z...AND THE RUC                
SHOWS THIS TREND OF MUCH LESS PCPN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  CIGS               
WERE MVFR AT KCVG AND KLUK...WITH VFR ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME...BUT              
THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL PROGRESS INTO MVFR CIGS AS WELL OVER THE               
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.                                                             
AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AFTER 06Z...CHANCE OF PCPN WILL INCREASE                
SOUTH TO NORTH 06Z-12Z...WITH THE NAM PRODUCING MORE QPF THAN THE               
GFS AFTER 12Z.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN MUCH HIGHER MET THAN MAV POPS.             
WILL CARRY VCSH AND PERHAPS TEMPOS AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY REMAINS            
MEAGER...SO THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 400 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                    
DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH CHANCE POPS IN                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF CWA. EARLY SHOT OF RAIN TODAY LOOKS              
TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL UPPER                
SUPPORT OF THE LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVES N OF FCST AREA. AM LOWERING              
POPS OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA AS NAM AND NGM...GFS TO A                 
LESSER EXTENT...QUICKLY TURN OFF ANY PRECIP ACCUMS FROM 18-0Z. UPPER            
LOW TRACKS THROUGH FCST AREA EARLY FRI WITH A LAGGING SFC LOW. SFC              
LOW WEAKENS TO MORE OF AN AREA OF TROFFINESS AS IT TRACKS OVER FCST             
AREA DURING THE DAY FRI...BUT H5 CIRCULATION AT TIME OF MAX HEATING             
WILL HELP AIDE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AGAIN...AND POSSIBLY SOME              
THUNDER.                                                                        
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARDS FWC TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.              
CURRENT READINGS ARE NOT THAT FAR FROM EXPECTED HIGHS TODAY AND WITH            
INCOMING PRECIP...A NEAR STEADY OR SLOW RISE SEEMS REASONABLE.                  
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FCST.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
915 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
CORRECTED FOR TYPOS                                                             
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
NOT AN EASY FORECAST AS CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED            
TO AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINS           
ENTRENCHED...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAVE THE TN               
BORDER COUNTIES...THERE HAS ONLY BEEN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SOME STRATIFORM        
RAIN BLOWN DOWNSHEAR OF TSTM COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.                    
THINKING IS AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINING WITH                
IT INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE                   
RATES...MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...                       
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE NAM/S BEST SHOT OF              
H5 PVA DOESN/T COME THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 0900 UTC WHILE THE RUC IS              
NOT LOOKING AS ORGANIZED ALOFT AS EARLIER. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE                
THE STRONGEST H5 JET LOCATED MORE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND LOW                   
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL                    
INCREASE QUITE A BIT LATER TNGT...AIDED BY MID LEVEL DRYING AND H5              
COLD POOL.                                                                      
DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LLVL CONVERGENCE ON THE MODELS...NOR IS            
THERE MUCH MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NONE OF THIS LENDS ME A GREAT DEAL OF            
CONFIDENCE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WL BECOME AS WIDESPREAD AS                  
EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH COMPELLING FACTORS TO               
LEAVE FORECAST LARGELY INTACT...AND WL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS.                 
THOUGH I WL CUT BACK ON HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE WRN ZONES AND                 
REORIENT POPS TO TRY AND LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 250 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS THE WEDGE FRONT AS                     
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAE TO ATL AND THEN BACK INTO THE SMOKY                     
MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED THE SRN AL                    
CONVECTION QUITE WELL...AND ALL AGREE IN BRINGING THE RESPONSIBLE               
500 MB MAIN VORT LOBE UP INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND SENDING THE              
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN                       
CAROLINAS AND NE GA OVERNIGHT. THIS BECOMES QUITE PROBLEMATIC IN                
LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THE HARDEST                 
HIT EASTERN PIEDMONT HAS MANY REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR              
THE EVENT THUS FAR. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE THE BEST COMBINATION              
OF INSTABILITY AROUND A SLOWLY DECAYING WEDGE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES...AND A STRONG 850 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL                         
TEMPERATURE AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. GIVEN THE RECENT                     
HISTORY OF ISOLATED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL                 
FLOODING WITH THIS SETUP...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM ELBERTON               
TO CHARLOTTE TO SALISBURY THROUGH TOMORROW.                                     
MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE SW FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB                
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY FRI NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS                    
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES FOR               
ONE MORE DAY AS THE WEDGE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK FRI AFTN.                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WESTERN SLOPES                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE                     
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY               
NITE AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE                            
APPALACHIANS...ERODING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE             
SOUTHEAST STATES. HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL UNTIL MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER                 
SOUTHERN CANADA SHIFTS EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF               
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...CWFA WILL BE                     
SUSCEPTIBLE TO PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE REGION IN A             
RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH TEMERATURES PROGD INTO              
THE UPPER 80S FOR ALL EASTERN ZONES MONDAY...BEFORE COOLING FROM THE            
NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING CONVECTION....ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSER             
TO EVENTUALLY STALLING POSITION OF THE OLD BACKDOOR FRONT.                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
ANOTHER DIRE TAF PACKAGE WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING...ALTHOUGH            
WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE EROSION OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND              
SOUTHEAST TONITE AND DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WE FEATURED                     
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM                  
MVFR... TO IFR DURING CONVECTIVE CELLS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME             
WIDESPREAD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND FOR MOST OF THE                
OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND WITH CWFA ENTERING             
FAVORABLE POSITION RELATIVE TO UPPER JET. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO              
IFR RANGE AT ANY TIME DURING HEAVY RAIN AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH            
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES IMPROVING                              
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAINING                  
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH VCSH ADVERTISED             
MOST LOCATIONS AND TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL            
RAIN SHOWERS.                                                                   
PRECIPITATION CHARACTER SHOULD BE SHOWERY...BUT TSRA ADVERTISED AT              
TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KAND/KCLT...THE TWO TAF SITES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO            
EXPERIENCING PARTIAL OR PERMANENT EROSION OF OUR COLD AIR DAMMING               
REGIME.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ029 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                                  
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ057-071-072-082 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                      
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ009-011>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
915 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
NOT AN EASY FORECAST AS CONVECTION THUS FAR HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED            
TO AREAS OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. WHERE COLD AIR DAMING REMAINS            
ENTRENCHED...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAVE THE TN               
BORDER COUNTIES...THERE HAS ONLY BEEN PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SOME STRATIFORM        
RAIN BLOWN DOWNSHEAR OF TSTM COMPLEXES OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.                    
THINKING IS AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...BRINING WITH                
IT INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE                   
RATES...MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP...                       
PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWFA. THE NAM/S BEST SHOT OF              
H5 PVA DOESN/T COME THROUGH UNTIL AROUND 0900 UTC WHILE THE RUC IS              
NOT LOOKING AS ORGANIZED ALOFT AS EARLIER. BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE                
THE STRONGEST H5 JET LOCATED MORE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND LOW                   
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK LIKE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL                    
INCRASE QUITE A BIT LATER TNGT...AIDED BY MID LEVEL DRYING AND H5               
COLD POOL.                                                                      
DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LLVL CONVERGENCE ON THE MODELS...NOR IS            
THERE MUCH MOISTURE TRASNPORT. NONE OF THIS LENDS ME A GREAT DEAL OF            
CONFIDENCE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WL BECOME AS WIDESPREAD AS                  
EARLIER THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH COMPELLING FACTORS TO               
LEAVE FORECAST LARGELY INTACT...AND WL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS.                 
THOUGH I WL CUT BACK ON HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE WRN ZONES AND                 
REORIENT POPS TO TRY AND LINE UP A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE NEIGHBORS.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 250 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY DEPICTS THE WEDGE FRONT AS                     
EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAE TO ATL AND THEN BACK INTO THE SMOKY                     
MOUNTAINS. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED THE SRN AL                    
CONVECTION QUITE WELL...AND ALL AGREE IN BRINGING THE RESPONSIBLE               
500 MB MAIN VORT LOBE UP INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND SENDING THE              
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN                       
CAROLINAS AND NE GA OVERNIGHT. THIS BECOMES QUITE PROBLEMATIC IN                
LIGHT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. THE HARDEST                 
HIT EASTERN PIEDMONT HAS MANY REPORTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR              
THE EVENT THUS FAR. THIS AREA SHOULD ALSO SEE THE BEST COMBINATION              
OF INSTABILITY AROUND A SLOWLY DECAYING WEDGE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE               
WATER VALUES...AND A STRONG 850 MB EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL                         
TEMPERATURE AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. GIVEN THE RECENT                     
HISTORY OF ISOLATED FLOODING...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL                 
FLOODING WITH THIS SETUP...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FROM ELBERTON               
TO CHARLOTTE TO SALISBURY THROUGH TOMORROW.                                     
MID LEVEL DRYING SHOULD WORK IN FROM THE SW FRIDAY...WITH 850 MB                
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY FRI NIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS                    
NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER MAV TEMPERATURES FOR               
ONE MORE DAY AS THE WEDGE SHOULD FINALLY BREAK FRI AFTN.                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WESTERN SLOPES                
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHEAST RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE                     
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                   
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY               
NITE AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE                            
APPALACHIANS...ERODING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE             
SOUTHEAST STATES. HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL UNTIL MAJOR UPPER LOW OVER                 
SOUTHERN CANADA SHIFTS EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF               
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...CWFA WILL BE                     
SUSCEPTIBLE TO PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY ROTATING OVER THE REGION IN A             
RATHER MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH TEMERATURES PROGD INTO              
THE UPPER 80S FOR ALL EASTERN ZONES MONDAY...BEFORE COOLING FROM THE            
NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON             
AND EVENING CONVECTION....ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSER             
TO EVENTUALLY STALLING POSITION OF THE OLD BACKDOOR FRONT.                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
ANOTHER DIRE TAF PACKAGE WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING...ALTHOUGH            
WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE EROSION OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND              
SOUTHEAST TONITE AND DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. WE FEATURED                     
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...AND CEILINGS RANGING FROM                  
MVFR... TO IFR DURING CONVECTIVE CELLS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME             
WIDESPREAD AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND FOR MOST OF THE                
OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE AND WITH CWFA ENTERING             
FAVORABLE POSITION RELATIVE TO UPPER JET. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO              
IFR RANGE AT ANY TIME DURING HEAVY RAIN AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH            
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES IMPROVING                              
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS REMAINING                  
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH VCSH ADVERTISED             
MOST LOCATIONS AND TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY RESIDUAL            
RAIN SHOWERS.                                                                   
PRECIPITATION CHARACTER SHOULD BE SHOWERY...BUT TSRA ADVERTISED AT              
TIMES OVERNIGHT AT KAND/KCLT...THE TWO TAF SITES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO            
EXPERIENCING PARTIAL OR PERMANENT EROSION OF OUR COLD AIR DAMMING               
REGIME.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ029 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                                  
NC...FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ057-071-072-082 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                      
SC...FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ009-011>014-019 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
920 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO BETTER REFLECT WX CONDS AND EXPECTED WEATHER.                  
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ERN SODAK             
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DWPT FRONT HAS LIFT NORTH THROUGH KABR WITH             
DWPTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY 02Z. EXPECTED LOWLVL JET TONIGHT             
MAY AGAIN PROVIDE FOCUS FOR FURTHER DEV OVERNIGHT. CONCERN IS HEAVY             
RAIN CHCS FOR TRAVERSE COUNTY. THEY RECEIVED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF              
RAIN EARLIER THIS EVNG. BIG AREA OF CONVECTION ACROSS NCNTRL NEB IS             
FCSTD TO LIFT NE ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC/M-ETA. REMAINDER OF FCST               
LOOKS OK.                                                                       
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT                                      
TSRAS DEVELOPING IN NE SD AND WC MN LATE THIS AFTN IN ADVANCE OF SFC            
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT TSRAS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS               
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK             
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND              
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE...LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO             
WOBBLE AROUND ALONG THE CANADIAN/US BORDER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS             
...WEAKEN AND LIFT INTO CANADA. AFTER TONIGHT...A COUPLE MORE                   
S/WS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION WHERE PLENTY OF                 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS. WITH THIS UPPER FLOW...THE BEST CHC            
FOR TSRAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN THROUGH SAT                
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUN AND SUN NIGHT.              
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH NOT MUCH WIND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.            
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                            
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN AND WITH            
THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER.               
NO BIG CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  MONDAY OPENS             
WITH AN H5 UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTH WEST UNITED STATES            
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THIS AREA TILTING NORTHWEST.  A SURFACE LOW            
PRESSURE INVERTED TROUGH IS SETTING UP OVER THE MIDWEST.  THERE ARE             
SEVERAL OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES LAYING ACROSS THE REGION.  AS THE H5             
LOW STARTS TO MOVE EAST THE SURFACE REFLECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE              
FOCUS OF CONVECTION.  AS IS USUALLY THE CASE IT IS DIFFICULT TO                 
PREDICT THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONES SO FAR IN ADVANCE.                
HOWEVER THESE BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS THE INITIATION OF CONVECTION.               
FOR THE PRESENT TIME HAVE GONE ALONG WITH NCEP PLACEMENT EXCEPT THAT            
WILL NOT BRING CONVECTION IN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THIS              
FRONTAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH.  HAVE GONE WITH LARGE               
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTING TO WHITTLE AREA DOWN AS TIME                   
APPROACHES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HINTZ/MOHR/KEEFE                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
810 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH               
DAKOTA. MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THIS FRONT...WITH                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION. RUC KEEPS AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS                
THIS AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT..SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR TONIGHT.                
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. OVERNIGHT                
LOWS LOOK GOOD.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE UPPER LOW NEARLY                
STATIONARY ACROSS MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOURTHERN                
WYOMING SWINGING AROUND BASE OF THE LOW HAS BEEN GIVING MOST OF THE             
CWA PLENTY OF THICK CIRROSTRATUS KEEPING AN ALREADY STABLE                      
ATMOSPHERE EVEN MORE SO...PROHIBITING ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING            
TODAY. TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY                   
REMAINS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION. VIS SATELLITE SHOWING                
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM CORE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER            
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS OUTFLOW IS WHERE THE STRONG SHOWERS NOW OVER             
SOUTH CENTRAL SD INITIATED FROM. RUC MODEL TODAY HAS BEEN TRENDING              
TOWARD LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH CAPE VALUES            
AT 00Z OF ABOUT 1000 J/KG AND LI VALUES AROUND -3...STILL A FEW                 
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...BUT BULK OF SEVERE               
WEATHER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.                        
FOR FRIDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE             
SWINGING OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW PHASES IN TO NEXT            
APPROACHING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC...IT TAKES MORE OF AN                 
EASTERLY TRACK STAYING WELL TO THE SOUTH. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD              
STILL BE SEEN AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO                 
TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING THE FRONTAL BOUNADRY NOW               
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD MAY RETROGRADE BACK WEST ALSO INCREASING AREA             
MOISTURE. EITHER WAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS                 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A WEAK TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE             
NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A              
SHORTWAVE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MAY HELP KICK OFF            
STORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE IS STILL                
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW. SUNDAY              
LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER DAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE                    
WEST...BUT AGAIN WITH DIURNAL HEATING CAN'T RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR             
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                         
.LONG TERM...UPPER LOW OVER DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY               
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE             
AVERAGE...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                
ZONES. 12Z GFS SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH               
DAKOTA...WITH CAPE 2000-3000 J/KG AND LI AT -8 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL               
SD. CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAVORABLE...WITH SEVERE                
WEATHER A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. ON TUESDAY...PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH WILL            
MOVE INTO THE REGION SPREADING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST              
OF THE WEEK. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY WET PATTERN FOR THE AREA. 12Z               
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SITUATION.                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
AND TONIGHT FOR ALL TWEB ROUTES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
ARE LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA AND SRN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                   
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT TWEB ROUTES...ESPECIALLY TWEB 258.            
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1030 AM MDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VIS/WV SHOWING STRONG STATIONARY UPPER LOW                
ACROSS MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER WITH DRY SLOTTING CURRENTLY OVER THE             
CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING DRY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR               
KSFD TO FAR NORTHEASTERN SD. RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS EXTENDING ALONG              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD THIS MORNING WITH A BREAK              
IN THE PRECIP MOVING NORTH FROM NEBRASKA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME                   
HEATING DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. LATEST RUC SHOWING CAPE VALUES AT               
ABOUT 1500 J/KG...LI VALUES AROUND -3...AND NOT MUCH OF A CAP TO                
BREAK THROUGH. AGREE WITH SPC WITH CURRENT WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS              
MY FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY.                                                 
AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRY AND STABLE AIR               
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT.                
WITH PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH AND ASSOCIATED               
COLD AIR ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS              
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SD/WY AND MT BORDER WHERE I'VE PUT IN SLIGHT                
CHANCE POPS. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN                    
MONTANA...SO THIS ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.                                    
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1055 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
GOING FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...HAVE JUST UPLOADED SOME NEW                
GRIDS FOR THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...SKY COVER...                
DEW PTS AND RH. REMNANTS OF MCS STILL MEANDERING THRU ERN NEB                   
ATTM...WITH PLENTY OF STRATUS INVOLVED WITH IT. AT THE HIGHER                   
LEVELS...IMMENSE CS SHIELD HAS ADVECTED NWD INTO THIS AREA FM THE               
SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING WEST OF THE CS SHIELD IN OUR FAR            
WRN CWFA...BUT LOOKED AT THE TEMPS ALOFT AND LATEST NAM SNDGS AND IT            
APPEARS WITH A HIGH DEG OF LOW LVL RH IN OUR WEST AND COOL TEMPS                
ALOFT...THAT THEY WL SEE SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE. SO HIGH TEMPS IN            
OUR WRN FA ARE VERY TRICKY. THE WARMEST AREA SHOULD BE IN THE                   
SPENCER AND STORM LAKE IA AREA...WHERE THE CS SHIELD WL BE LESS                 
THICK. WL BE WATCHING THE WRN CWFA FOR TS DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTN             
HRS WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT...AND WL BE RAISING POPS IN OUR CWFA TNGT             
TO CATEGORICAL...WITH MCS INDUCED SHORTWV MOVG NEWD LATE TONIGHT AND            
FRI MRNG THRU THE EAST. OVERALL FLOW ALOFT RMNS SW WITH UPPER LOW               
OVER THE NRN RCKYS...SO IT IS QUITE AN UNSTABLE SITUATION WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO CAPPING.                                                           
FOR SVR CHCS...DUE TO LACK OF CAPPING WITH COOL TEMPS ALOFT (DESPITE            
ABUNDANT HIGH CLDS)...WIND PROFILES ARE INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHC            
FOR SVR TS WL BE IN OUR FAR WRN CWFA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.                
MODERATE INSTABILITY DOES EXIST THRU MUCH OF THE FA TODAY AND TNGT...           
BUT NOT ENUF INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ANY MDT OR HIGH RISK OF SVR                 
ATTM. IN FACT...IF WIND PROFILES OFF OF THE NAM AND RUC ARE                     
CORRECT...THEY SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UNI DIRECTIONAL MOTION IN THE                
LOWEST 2KM THROUGHOUT THE EAST LATE TODAY. THIS IS BACKED UP BY THE             
12Z OAX RAOB. THE LBF RAOB WAS RAIN CONTAMINATED.                               
NOTE TO MEDIA...HWO COMING OUT SHORTLY...HOPEFULLY A ZFP TEXT UPDATE            
AFTER THAT BUT EXTRA TAFS ARE DUE TODAY DUE TO AN OAX BACKUP. SO NO             
GUARANTEES ON THE ZFP TEXT UPDATE. FOR QUICKER UPDATES...CHECK OUT              
OUR GRIDS.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
845 AM PDT THU JUN 2 2005                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...A COOL...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER                 
THE INLAND NORTHWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH EXPECT                  
OCCASIONALLY WET SPRING TIME WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...TODAY...UPDATING THE EASTERN AND MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES           
TODAY TO INCREASE POPS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE                 
REGION...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT AMPLE                
PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE ZONES WEST INTO THE SPOKANE AREA.                
THIS MOISTURE IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PALOUSE AND INTO             
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON. AS SUCH BUMPED UP POPS TO                     
CATEGORICAL FOR THESE ZONES. EXPECT SOME CLEARING AFTER 20-21Z FROM             
THE NORTHEAST AS THIS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CLEAR THE AREA. HIGHER                 
DEWPOINTS AND INSOLATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH               
TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RUC 40              
IS INDICATING CAPES NEAR 200J/KG AND LI'S -2 TO -4. IN ADDITION WILL            
BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE AREAS THAT ARE RECEIVING                         
PRECIPITATION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES              
HAVE BEEN RECEIVING DOWN SLOPING FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT            
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN THAT AREA THROUGH EARLY                
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SLOP OVER SHOWERS ALONG THE                
CASCADE CREST TODAY. /TOBIN                                                     
.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION               
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AND EXTREME EASTERN WASHINGTON           
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OR                      
MVFR BEGINNING IN THE NORTH AND SPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE              
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        61  45  66  45  69  45 / 100  10  20  10  10  10                 
COEUR D'ALENE  59  44  64  46  67  46 / 100  30  20  10  10  10                 
PULLMAN        57  42  62  43  67  43 / 100  20  20  10  10  10                 
LEWISTON       63  49  67  50  74  50 /  80  40  20  10  10  10                 
COLVILLE       64  45  68  45  72  45 /  80  20  40  20  30  20                 
SANDPOINT      59  44  63  45  68  45 / 100  30  40  20  30  20                 
KELLOGG        57  43  63  44  68  44 / 100  50  40  20  30  20                 
MOSES LAKE     73  49  74  48  77  48 /  10  10  10  10  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      72  51  74  51  75  51 /  10  10  10  10  10  10                 
OMAK           68  46  72  47  75  47 /  20  10  10  10  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
437 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...                                                         
LATEST GOES-12 MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP MID/UPPER-              
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO              
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASINS. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A             
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST                     
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE             
FLORIDA KEYS LIE EAST OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AXIS AND NORTH OF               
THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITHIN DEEP...VERY MOIST...AND              
FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOUTH WINDS ARE AVERAGING 35KT IN THE             
850-700MB LAYER ACCORDING TO THE LAST FEW HOURS OF DOPPLER VAD WIND             
PROFILE MEASUREMENTS. LATEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW NUMEROUS                  
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...AND SCATTERED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN KEY WEST AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.            
RUC ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE KEYS AND ADJOINING            
WATERS HAS DESTABILIZED SINCE THURSDAY EVENING -- THIS IS CONSISTENT            
WITH THE DEEP...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS            
MUCH OF THE SERVICE AREA...AS WELL AS WESTERN CUBA...AND ADJACENT               
GULF AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.                                                      
.FORECASTS...                                                                   
AT LEAST ONE EPISODE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL APPEARS ALMOST CERTAIN              
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS TODAY...AND THUS OUR               
12-HOUR PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY IS 90 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE CELLS               
WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY...WITH A FORWARD MOVEMENT AVERAGING NEAR                 
30KT. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS             
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH A NEARLY SATURATED LOWER TROPOSPHERE               
SHOULD KEEP THE CAP ON CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KT.                         
THE 03/00Z GFS DEVELOPS AN OBVIOUSLY SPURIOUS WARM-CORE CYCLONIC                
CIRCULATION IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF              
MEXICO BY SUNSET...PROBABLY RENDERED BY UNREALISTIC MODEL GRID-SCALE            
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE GFS LARGE-SCALE DEPICTIONS APPEAR GENERALLY            
REASONABLE...WITH THE SPURIOUS CYCLONE THE GLARING EXCEPTION.                   
IT APPEARS FROM A CONSIDERATION OF ALL NWP OUTPUT THAT THE SHARP                
UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE DAMPENING OUT. THIS MEANS              
THAT DEEP...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR AT             
LEAST A DAY OR TWO...ALONG WITH HIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES. AN            
ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL OR            
SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.              
HIGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED                  
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUGGEST THAT THE INHERITED HIGHER-THAN            
CLIMO POPS ARE REASONABLE.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
OCCASIONAL FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT              
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. MAINLY SOUTHEAST                 
BREEZES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 15KT. HOWEVER...STRONGER AND GUSTY WINDS              
ARE LIKELY IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONGER                
SHOWERS AND STORMS DELIVERING WIND GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE. STAY TUNED            
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE VHF WEATHER BAND FOR THE LATEST SHORT              
TERM FORECASTS...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS.                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE MORNING                 
ALONG THE KMIA-KEYW FLIGHT ROUTE...INCLUDING THE KMTH AND KEYW                  
TERMINALS. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 12Z.              
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO             
DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE...LOWERING FLYING CONDITIONS TO MVFR IN                   
SHOWERS AND IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN LIFR IN THUNDERSTORMS FOR                     
INTERMITTENT PERIODS. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO                
PRODUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH.                
SURFACE WIND AT THE KEYS TERMINALS WILL AVERAGE SOUTHEAST AT 7-12               
KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.                                                          
WHEN PLANNING YOUR FLIGHT...PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...             
SIGMETS/AIRMETS...AND FORECASTS. YOUR PIREPS ARE APPRECIATED.                   
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KEY WEST  85/79/88/80/89  90/60/50/40/40                                        
MARATHON  85/79/88/80/89  90/60/50/40/40                                        
&&                                                                              
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
K. KASPER                                                                       
L. KASPER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
405 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT DEPICTING 500 MB OHIO VALLEY                     
LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM...INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL AS PER WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY...LIFTING SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE GETTING NUDGED                
EAST TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE            
IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK DEFORMATION AREA OVER SOUTHERN MI...SHOWN BY               
MODELS LIFTING NORTH TODAY AND WEAKENING FURTHER. AT THE                        
SURFACE...RIDGE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SLOWLY             
RETREATING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW OVER WESTERN OHIO                 
VALLEY WEAKENS/DISSIPATES.                                                      
DEEPER MOISTURE...AS PER 850 TO 500 MB...MODEST BEFORE DWINDLING                
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 925 MB MOISTURE REMAINING QUITE GOOD ON THE             
OTHER HAND.                                                                     
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT VERY LIMITED AT BEST THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL            
VERY WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT AT MOST...A LITTLE WEAK                   
DEFORMATION IN AREA TODAY AS NOTED ABOVE. 300K TO 305K NAM AND GFS              
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABSENT THROUGH TONIGHT...DESPITE SUITABLY LOW                 
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TODAY.                                           
WILL MENTION CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND CHANCE OF                   
SPRINKLES CENTRAL AND SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGHER DEW POINTS AND                 
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL FAVOR MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.              
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE BALLPARK...KEPT LOWER TODAY             
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THOUGH K INDICES CLOSE TO 30 THROUGH                        
TONIGHT...LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES PORTRAY RATHER STABLE                        
OVERHEAD..THUS NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON            
SATURDAY...BETWEEN RIDGE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND TROUGH OVER             
THE HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY OVER THE NEVADA AND NORTHERN              
MEXICO WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT               
LAKES. 00Z NAM IS A TOUCH SLOWER AND THE 00Z GFS IS A TOUCH FASTER              
BRINGING THE SYSTEMS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON EARLIER MODEL               
TRENDS...RECENT ONES ARE NOT TOO DIFFERENT...WITH MODELS LATCHING               
ONTO MORE OF A SOLID SOLUTION.                                                  
GOOD/DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY                
EVENING. SOME LIFT PRESENT FROM WARM/MOIST ON SATURDAY...WITH                   
INCREASING INSTABILITY. OVERALL SETUP STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR                
PRECIP ON SATURDAY...AND WILL LEAVE CURRENT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE            
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BETTER SHOT FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH             
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BETTER LIFT SEEN WITH INCREASING 850-500MB                
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD AN UPPER SHORTWAVE. WILL ALSO BUMP TEMPS              
UP A TOUCH ON SATURDAY GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSOLATION...AND A FEW            
DEGREES MORE SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN               
PLACE.                                                                          
SUNDAY COULD PROVE TO BE INTERESTING AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER                   
POTENTIAL GOES. BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE               
GREAT LAKES...WITH ADDITIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES. GFS IS FARTHER                 
NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE MAIN LOW...LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE                 
FEEDBACK PRESENT EARLIER. NAM KEEPS THE TROUGH FARTHER SOUTH...AND              
FOCUSES THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY                 
AFTERNOON/EVENING /AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN ONTARIO PER THE GFS/.                 
LOCAL WRF-XX HAS A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIKE THE GFS...BUT IS                
FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. IN ADDITION TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND              
DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT FROM EARLIER THETA-E ADVECTION /MODEL                     
DEPICTIONS OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 1.5 INCHES/...WIND FIELD ALSO            
INCREASES WITH A +35KT 850MB JET ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG HEIGHT                 
FALLS. THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT TOO STRONG /60-70KTS/...BUT THE               
NAM/WRF-XX POSITION PLACES SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE             
REGION WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE. WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO            
THE MID 60S...SB-CAPES IN BOTH THE NAM/WRF-XX EXCEED 2000J/KG. WITH             
THE HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION THE NAM12 YOU CAN SEE THAT IT                    
DEVELOPS TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION...ONE EARLY MORNING ALONG THE               
MOIST AXIS AND ONE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE               
FRONT. THIS SETUP SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE. GIVEN THE VARYING DEGREES            
OF UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE TSRA...BUT INCLUDE THE                  
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.                                       
ADDITION TIMING/INTENSITY DIFFERENCES PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY                    
NIGHT/MONDAY. THE MUCH STRONGER WRF-XX IS THE SLOWEST TO CLEAR THE              
SHORTWAVE TROUGH /ACTUALLY NEARLY A COMPACT CUTOFF LOW BY SUNDAY                
NIGHT/ THROUGH THE CWA. GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION             
THROUGH MONDAY...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY MONDAY NIGHT.                 
INSTABILITY IS WEAK BUT PRESENT...AND GIVEN LINGERING                           
LIFT/CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ON MONDAY. HOWEVER FOR             
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP POPS GIVEN GENERAL                 
CONSENSUS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE MORE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION.              
IN ADDITION WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY DRY AT THIS POINT. WHILE               
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED MODEL            
SOLUTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT A FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OR SETUP                 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER GIVEN THE            
VARIABILITY AND DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN SOLUTIONS...WILL HOLD ONTO THE             
CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...105 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                           
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SE                   
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. TIMING OF MVFR             
CEILINGS INTO THE TAF SITES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF SET.            
THE 00Z MESO SCALE MODELS NOW HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON THE 00Z RUC/NAM AND OBSERVATIONS                       
UPSTREAM... WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS A                  
COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREVIOUS TAF SET. IT ALSO APPEARS FROM THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THAT CIGS IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT             
RANGE WILL LIFT JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. SO PRIMARILY EXPECTING              
CIGS OF 2K TO 3K FEET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. SURFACE                    
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING THE LAST FEW HOURS... ESPECIALLY            
SOUTH OF I 94 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY AROUND 60. BY MORNING...              
THINK THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN            
HAZE AROUND DETROIT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DWD/BRAVENDER                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
105 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS SE                   
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. TIMING OF MVFR             
CEILINGS INTO THE TAF SITES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TAF SET.            
THE 00Z MESO SCALE MODELS NOW HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. BASED ON THE 00Z RUC/NAM AND OBSERVATIONS                       
UPSTREAM... WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS A                  
COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREVIOUS TAF SET. IT ALSO APPEARS FROM THE                 
LATEST GUIDANCE AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THAT CIGS IN THE 1K TO 2K FOOT             
RANGE WILL LIFT JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. SO PRIMARILY EXPECTING              
CIGS OF 2K TO 3K FEET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 12Z. SURFACE                    
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING THE LAST FEW HOURS... ESPECIALLY            
SOUTH OF I 94 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY AROUND 60. BY MORNING...              
THINK THESE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN            
HAZE AROUND DETROIT.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY REAL UPDATE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT IS TO CARRY             
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 59 BASED ON THE RADAR              
COVERAGE AND TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB OVERNIGHT.                                      
BASED ON THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA... THE 12Z AND 18Z NCEP SUITE DID               
NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY              
AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AREA RADAR DATA HAS ALREADY BEEN SHOWING              
RETURNS OVER FAR SE MICHIGAN WITHIN A WELL DEFINED 700MB THETA E                
RIDGE. A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS ALSO PRESENT NEAR 850MB ACROSS            
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL            
WORK ITS WAY NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE... THE 00Z RAOBS ALSO            
SUGGEST A LITTLE STRONGER UPPER JET OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI AND LAKE             
HURON... WITH 250MB WINDS OF 50KTS AT APX. THIS ALONG WITH SOME MID             
LEVEL DEFORMATION IS LIKELY ENHANCING MID LEVEL LIFT... WHICH HAS               
LED TO A PERSISTENT BAND OF -RA FROM SW LOWER MI TO CHICAGO. THE                
COMBINATION OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION LIFTING IN FROM             
THE SOUTH ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL LIFT CERTAINLY WARRANTS THE                 
SCATTERED/CHANCE POPS TONIGHT. SOME LIMITING FACTORS FOR NOT RAISING            
POPS TONIGHT WOULD BE THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT STILL HAS TO BE                
OVERCOME... ESPECIALLY IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY... AND FAIRLY SHALLOW              
LAPSE RATES ALOFT BASED OFF AREA SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT                   
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY                                         
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST                
TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL HELP               
FORCE THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING             
FOR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY.                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF             
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NORTH OVER THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS HAVE            
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO THROUGH             
THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE GFS FOR THIS EVENING AS IT SEEMED TO HAVE             
A BETTER HANDLE THAN NAM WITH BOTH THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR              
OVER MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND THE COVERAGE OF QPF THIS                   
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF PRECIP HAS BEEN SPREADING NORTH ALONG A VORT            
LOBE THAT EJECTED OUT OF THE UPPER LOW THIS MORNING AND WILL                    
CONTINUE ACROSS SE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. DESPITE THIS LOBE                     
WEAKENING...LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM                 
ABOUT 9PM-3AM WITH A DECENT AREA OF MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION SETTING UP            
OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                                                   
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE                 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL OPEN AND MOVE NORTH SETTING UP              
AS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL OHIO. THIS              
IS ALL OUT AHEAD OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM               
THE PLAINS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL ACT AS A WEAK CONVERGENT                   
BOUNDARY FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH                 
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A THETA-E RIDGE SNEAKING INTO SW               
MICHIGAN WILL LEAVE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN            
COUNTIES TAPERING TO SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                      
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES RIDE INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER PATTERN REMAINS                
LARGELY IN A WESTERN TROF/EASTERN RIDGE CONFIGURATION. BY NEXT                  
WEEK...THIS PATTERN IS PROGGED TO UNDERGO A TEMPORARY CHANGE AS                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EDGES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...ALLOWING THE                
RIDGE TO RE-CENTER OVER THE MIDWEST/PLAINS FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS                 
TREND WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FORECAST...BOTH IN TERMS OF RAIN              
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                                                       
BEFORE THAT THOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER               
THE BAJA TODAY...WHICH IS PROGGED TO RIDE UP SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE            
LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS A NICE DEPICTION OF             
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS RATHER LARGE AND FAIRLY WELL FORMED ATTM. IT             
WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN HOW WELL THIS WAVE WILL SURVIVE             
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WILL             
ACTUALLY HELP OUT AS IT LAYS OUT A DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW FROM THE                
AR-LA-TEX TO OHIO VALLEY...WHICH IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL HELP THE                
SOUTHWESTERN SHORTWAVE MAINTAIN ITSELF. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL                
ADJUST FORECAST SLIGHTLY AND UP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS             
BY SATURDAY EVENING (AT THE SAME TIME DELAYING THE ONSET BY 6-12                
HRS). AT THE SAME TIME...DRY AIR WILL EAT AWAY AT THE MOISTURE AS IT            
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA...SO WILL GO NO MORE THAN 30% CHANCE.                     
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE REAL DIFFICULTY BEGINS...AS MESO               
AND STORM SCALE FORCING BECOME MORE AND MORE INFLUENTIAL IN THE                 
PLACEMENT OF BEST THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATIONS. THE FIRST EXAMPLE                
OF THIS COMES ON SUNDAY AS NAM LAYS OUT THE BEST FOCUS FOR TSRAS                
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN BEHIND THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY...AS DOES               
THE LOCALLY RUN WRFXX. HOWEVER...GFS DOES NOT DO THIS...NOR DOES AN             
EXTRAPOLATION OF PSU MM5. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SATURDAY               
EVENING "EVENT" WILL BE OF A RATHER LIMITED SCOPE...WILL KEEP THE               
CURRENT MENTION OF THUNDER IN ON SUNDAY...ASSUMING THERE WILL NOT               
BE A COMPLEX STRONG ENOUGH TO DISPLACE THE LOW LEVEL FORCING TOO FAR            
SOUTH OF CWA...FOR TOO LONG.                                                    
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST FROM            
MONDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE TREND SHOULD BE TO              
SLOWLY DISPLACE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER AND FURTHER            
SOUTH AS UPPER WAVES LUMBERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA...AND ALLOWS               
HIGH PRESSURE TO NOSE SOUTH THROUGH THE LAKES. THE CURRENT FORECAST             
HAS THIS BASIC TREND IN PLACE...AND CANNOT FIND ANY GOOD REASON TO              
DISAGREE.                                                                       
TEMPERATURES...IN THE MEANTIME...WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION              
AND TIMING OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...WITH A COOLING TREND               
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND FROM AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN SYSTEM AND HIGH                 
PRESSURE. DO NOT PLAN ON ANY BIG CHANGES WITH HIGHS/LOWS BOTH BY AND            
LARGE TO HOLD AOA CLIMO THROUGH MONDAY (80SISH/60ISH)...WHICH IS                
MORE OR LESS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN SUNNY -VS- CLOUDY/RAINY.                 
THIS...PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE DAYTIME. AFTER A "SPEED BUMP" IN               
THE TUE/WED TIME-FRAME...RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MIGRATES BACK EAST            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING ANOTHER MODERATION BACK TOWARD THAT             
80/60 DAY/NIGHT REGIME.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE.....CONSIDINE                                                   
SHORT TERM...KAHL                                                               
LONG TERM....GURNEY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
400 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE AND LONG AFD...BUT LOTS TO EXAMINE AND TALK              
ABOUT THIS MORNING...                                                           
TIS THE SEASON OF MCS'S. LARGE MCS OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MARCH             
EASTWARD WITH THE TAIL END OF THE MCS BEGINNING TO LAY OUT ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS IS            
ABOUT TO RUN OUT OF INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT            
MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SPC MESOANALYSIS                
PAGE SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY EXTENDS ABOUT             
AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER...AND EVEN THERE                  
MUCAPES ARE <750 J/KG. CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE RUC AND NAM BOTH                
INDICATE THAT A TURN TO ALMOST DUE SOUTH WILL OCCUR WITH TAIL END OF            
THE MCS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE              
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THE SHARP N/S                   
INSTABILITY AXIS DECIDED TO KEEP A SHARP EAST/WEST POP GRADIENT                 
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH RAIN VERY UNLIKELY OVER THE FAR EASTERN               
OZARKS TODAY AS THIS MCS RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.                  
NOW THIS MCS IS OUR MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN...BUT IT IS FAR FROM THE             
ONLY CONCERN. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO            
GRAND VALLEY AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH                
THAT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MORPHING INTO ANOTHER MCS. IT APPEARS AS            
THOUGH THE BRUNT OF THIS MCS WILL MOVE MORE EAST THAN                           
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300MB                 
THICKNESS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS                    
CONVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE            
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE                   
PANHANDLE REGION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT              
REALLY NOT JUXTAPOSED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IT IS                
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OR EVEN MAKE A GOOD GUESS AT CONVECTIVE                   
INITIATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS OVER KANSAS.             
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT               
THE CURRENT MCS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL EITHER SURVIVE INTO THE               
AFTERNOON AND RE-INTENSIFY...OR LEAVE BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                
THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A NEW BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER OK/KS THIS            
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING              
SHORTWAVE. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY              
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...PROBABLY INCHING INTO OUR WESTERN                 
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO                 
RETARD NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT                  
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER OK/KS THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK AHEAD OF               
THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DO LIMIT THE               
EASTWARD PROGRESS CONVECTION CAN MAKE...AND ALSO LEAD TO MUCH WEAKER            
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GIVEN THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.            
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE            
AND EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
FEATURES APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A                     
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND                    
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BUT POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS FAR WESTERN                 
MISSOURI. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING                
WILL FORM BENEATH A BACKED SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN               
NET MCS MOTION OF LESS THAN 10KT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF OVER              
AN INCH AND A HALF THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL.                                                                       
AGAIN A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION...IF               
THE CONVECTION ORGANIZES IN NORTHWARD MOVING BOWS THEN WIND DAMAGE              
BECOMES THE MAIN CONCERN. IF CONVECTION LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO THE                
FLOW THEN TRAINING AND EXCESSIVE/POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL                  
BECOMES THE MAIN CONCERN. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST                       
CONVECTIVE SCALE FEATURE 12 HOURS OUT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED              
CLOSELY. REGARDLESS OF THE CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION THE UNIDIRECTIONAL            
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF             
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS OVER OUR EASTERN                  
COUNTIES.                                                                       
NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE OUT INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A NEW ROUND OF SEVERE                  
CONVECTION LIKELY OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THAT             
CONVECTION WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...BUT            
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION             
WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXIST IN OUR            
NW CWA SATURDAY EVENING.                                                        
SUITE OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE WRF (WHICH HAS DONE QUITE               
WELL LATELY) SUGGEST THAT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL                  
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...LEAVING OUR ONLY HOPES OF              
CONVECTIVE INITIATION PEGGED TO A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LAID OUT           
ACROSS THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON'T SHOW ANY                   
EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...HOWEVER THAT IS LIKELY DUE IN LARGE             
PART TO THE BMJ CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION OVERTURNING THINGS TOO              
MUCH. GIVEN RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE            
OF A CAP IN PLACE THAN THE NAM INDICATES...WHICH GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO             
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND             
NO APPARENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT I HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SUNDAY. OUR             
HOPES OF A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS THIS WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE THINNING.            
DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS THOUGH             
WE WILL SEE MORE RIDGING WITH THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR            
NW...SO CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.                     
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE              
COMPLEX CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN                   
KANSAS.  CORFIDI VECTORS...850-300MB THICKNESS...AND THE ORIENTATION            
OF INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO A SOUTHEAST TURN OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT                 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ADDED VCTS TO THE               
KJLN TERMINAL AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GRAZE FAR WESTERN              
MISSOURI DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION             
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.                      
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS CLOUD COVER MAY GREATLY REDUCE                 
INSTABILITY.  FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY              
AND INTO THE EVENING.                                                           
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MESSY...MESSY...MESSY. THAT IS WHAT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BRING AS               
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/MCS FEATURES WILL MAKE IT A JOY TO             
HIT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND BREAK DOWN ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.                 
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DENOTED BY LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVE OVER NV ROTATING UNDERNEATH...THIS              
FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN                 
MEXICO WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.                            
IN THE SHORT TERM MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND TRAILING BACK            
INTO CENTRAL KS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE               
SOUTHERN END. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAP HAS THWARTED DEVELOPMENT OF               
CONVECTION ANY FURTHER SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF MCS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MO                   
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SINCE MCS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE               
ENVIRONMENT...I.E. MORE STABLE/LESS MOISTURE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO             
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY 00Z            
GFS AND LATEST RUC QPF. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL             
BE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO REMNANTS OF               
MCS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE                
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY OVER WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY.             
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD              
COVER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                                                 
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR TONIGHT TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT FAR             
EASTERN CWA AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST. 850MB            
LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO VEER THIS EVENING AND DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE            
NORTHWARD AND AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND COULD HAVE A HYDRO PROBLEM OVER             
FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES/1 HOUR.                  
HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES               
LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION COULD PLAY A ROLE IN SCATTERED               
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BETTER BET FOR CONVECTION STARTS LATE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON OR BETTER YET SATURDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE NOW ROLLING               
THROUGH NV IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH KS. A            
STALLED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORTHWEST MO BY SATURDAY              
AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REFORMING OVER EASTERN KS.             
BY THIS TIME THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRANSPORT                 
UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVER                      
FORECASTING THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS...AND THUS INSTABILITY.                     
NONETHELESS EXPECT TO SEE MUCAPES WELL IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ON                
SATURDAY WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.              
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REST OF FORECAST WITH THE MOST NOTABLE               
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY TO SLIGHT CATEGORY.                             
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
809 PM...                                                                       
MINOR REVISION TO SLOW DOWN THUNDERSTORM ARRIVAL A BIT IN THE                   
NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONGOING STORMS STILL WELL              
WEST OF REGION...AND UPPER AIR THIS EVENING SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF              
DRY AIR LEFT OVER IN EASTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED            
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT ANY RETURN FLOW SET UP NOT TO                
OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF EVENING             
POPS.                                                                           
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
255 PM...                                                                       
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN                       
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT                   
NORTH...ALLOWING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...THUNDERSTORMS THAT                   
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE                  
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TONIGHT AS THEY                  
ENCOUNTER A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION                     
PROCESSES ENSUE. FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE                   
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THE               
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL                  
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.                                                             
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALLOW LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH PROGGED               
DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE OVERDONE (LOW 70S BY GFS AND              
NAM SOLUTIONS)...STILL SHOULD HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM              
DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY                   
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI CLOSER TO              
THE WARM FRONT...WHERE FORECAST MUCAPES ARE AROUND 2500 J/KG AND MID            
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION             
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE               
IMPULSE...AGREED UPON BY BOTH NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS...OFFERS                    
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS (60 PERCENT) ACROSS            
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY.                           
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ON                         
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS A SURFACE FRONT             
PASSES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE.               
SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN             
ROCKIES NEXT WEEK WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN PRECIPITATION                   
CHANCES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM                  
CHANCES LOOK TO BE THE BEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STALLED SURFACE                
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR                
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. THE ECMWF AND GFS BUILD HEIGHTS OVER PLAINS              
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE                
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER KANSAS                  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CAP STRENGTH WILL INCREASE OVER KANSAS. 700 MB            
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN                 
MISSOURI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING             
POP UP STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. I'VE KEPT 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN               
FOR THE KIRKSVILLE, CONCORDIA AND SEDALIA AREAS.                                
SCHMIT/KOCH                                                                     
655 AM CDT THU...                                                               
QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE MORNING FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF AREAS             
OF FOG. LIGHT EAST WINDS ADVECTED IN DRY AIR ALL NIGHT.                         
SO...ANYTHING OTHER THAN SHALLOW SURFACE BASED FOG NEAR LARGE BODIES            
OF WATER...OR IN LOW LYING AREAS...IS HARD TO COME BY.                          
FOR THOSE IN THE AVIATION COMMUNITY...AIRPORTS NEAR THE MISSOURI                
RIVER (MKC AND STJ) MAY STILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES                   
THROUGH 9 AM.                                                                   
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
414 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WOW...WHAT A SCENARIO WE HAVE TODAY! SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A               
COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS                 
PANHANDLES WHILE THE DRY LINE HUGGED NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS STATE            
LINE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL COME A HALT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL                       
SYSTEM...LOCATED OVER NEW MEXICO TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                    
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. INCREASED THE POPS THIS                                
MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS...GIVEN FORCING                   
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.                                                     
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS IS LAGGING BEHIND THIS LEADING IMPULSE                  
ACCORDING TO THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS. WE EXPECT THIS           
FEATURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING. CONCERNED THAT MORNING           
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER MAY BECOME A HINDERANCE FOR AFTERNOON                
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES WHERE CONDITIONAL           
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST. THOUGH SEVERE WORDING WAS ADDED FOR THIS           
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                                      
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS             
MORNING...WILL FOLLOW AFTERWARDS AND WILL DRIVE THE AFOREMENTIONED              
FRONT SOUTHWARD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL                 
ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ADJUSTED THE WIND AND            
DEWPOINT GRIDS SIGNIFICANTLY TO MATCH LATEST TREND. POPS WHERE                  
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALSO.                                                         
RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER             
CONDITIONS BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THE NEXT SCHEDULED SYSTEM ON            
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMARILLO TX                81  58  84  60 /  40  30   0  10                     
BEAVER OK                  79  63  88  60 /  50  40  20  20                     
BOISE CITY OK              78  55  77  55 /  30  20  10  20                     
BORGER TX                  82  60  87  63 /  40  30  10  10                     
BOYS RANCH TX              83  57  85  58 /  50  20   0  10                     
CANYON TX                  84  57  85  59 /  40  30   0  10                     
CLARENDON TX               83  62  89  63 /  50  40  10  10                     
DALHART TX                 79  56  79  56 /  40  20  10  10                     
GUYMON OK                  80  61  81  58 /  30  30  10  20                     
HEREFORD TX                86  57  83  59 /  40  10   0  10                     
LIPSCOMB TX                80  64  89  62 /  50  40  10  20                     
PAMPA TX                   81  62  87  64 /  50  40  10  20                     
SHAMROCK TX                82  65  92  65 /  50  40  10  20                     
WELLINGTON TX              83  66  94  66 /  50  40  10  20                     
&&                                                                              
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13/08                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING UP THROUGH BIG BEND THIS MORNING WITH                  
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF IT. RUC MUCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG AND DEW POINTS              
IN UPPER 60S...SO LOTS OF INSTABILITY. MOST OF CONVECTION JUST                  
WEST OF CWA...FROM ALPINE AND FORT STOCKTON...NORTHWARD TO MIDLAND              
AND LUBBOCK...TRAINING NORTHEAST. WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF CWA.                 
THIS IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING IN SOME RESPECTS...GIVEN THE STRONG                 
INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE.                                                     
BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS JUST GRAZE WESTERN CWA CURRENTLY OVER THE               
PERMIAN BASIN TO LUBBOCK...WITH PERMIAN BASIN MCS. THEY ALSO HINT               
AT MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SECONDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE                       
INDICATING UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR SONORA BY 7 AM THIS MORNING.                 
THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED YET...BUT STILL HAVE THE MONITOR POTENTIAL                
AS BOTH MODELS BRING STRONG 700 HT UVVS ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING           
HOURS.                                                                          
WITH STRONG INSTABILILTY...WILL MENTION SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL               
IN ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                  
WATCHES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS TRAINING                          
POTENTIAL...AS CURRENT STORMS IN PERMIAN BASIN ATTEST. HEAVIEST                 
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL APPEARS TO GRAZE                                         
CROCKETT...IRION...STERLING...NOLAN...FISHER AND HASKELL COUNTIES.              
LIFT FROM  SHORTWAVE EXITS CWA BY NOON. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT              
CHANCE/CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND                  
COUNTIES...HOWEVER...WITH OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                  
LEFT OUT RAIN MENTION IN AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS                  
SOUTHWARD.                                                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER CWA. MENTIONED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE/CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK                       
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING                 
FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ALL NEXT                  
WEEK...WITH WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW LOFT. LONG               
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER               
CHANCE OF STORMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ABILENE      84  68  94  68 /  70  20  20  30                                   
SAN ANGELO   87  69  94  69 /  60  10  20  40                                   
JUNCTION     87  68  90  68 /  50  20  20  40                                   
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...TORNADO WATCH FOR                                                          
CROCKETT...SCHLEICHER...SUTTON...IRION...AND STERLING COUNTIES                  
UNTIL 4 AM.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
624 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CALLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INDICATE THAT DENSE FOG HAS BECOME              
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN NPW. HAVE ISSUED THE FOG ADV UNTIL 9            
AM...UPDATED GRIDS AND DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                         
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SOME LIGHT FOG OR HAZE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL               
BURN OFF QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. MCS TO THE NORTH IS LOOKING MORE               
AND MORE LIKE IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TERMINALS TODAY. CHANCES             
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO            
TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST TOWARD JLN. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND                         
THUNDERSTORMS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT...SO WILL LET LATER            
SHIFTS INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION ONCE TIMING BECOMES CLEARER.                     
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
APOLOGIZE FOR THE LATE AND LONG AFD...BUT LOTS TO EXAMINE AND TALK              
ABOUT THIS MORNING...                                                           
TIS THE SEASON OF MCS'S. LARGE MCS OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO MARCH             
EASTWARD WITH THE TAIL END OF THE MCS BEGINNING TO LAY OUT ACROSS               
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MCS IS            
ABOUT TO RUN OUT OF INSTABILITY AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT            
MOVES INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SPC MESOANALYSIS                
PAGE SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE INSTABILITY EXTENDS ABOUT             
AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE KANSAS MISSOURI BORDER...AND EVEN THERE                  
MUCAPES ARE <750 J/KG. CORFIDI VECTORS FROM THE RUC AND NAM BOTH                
INDICATE THAT A TURN TO ALMOST DUE SOUTH WILL OCCUR WITH TAIL END OF            
THE MCS THIS MORNING...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE              
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS. GIVEN THE SHARP N/S                   
INSTABILITY AXIS DECIDED TO KEEP A SHARP EAST/WEST POP GRADIENT                 
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH RAIN VERY UNLIKELY OVER THE FAR EASTERN               
OZARKS TODAY AS THIS MCS RAPIDLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.                  
NOW THIS MCS IS OUR MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN...BUT IT IS FAR FROM THE             
ONLY CONCERN. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE RIO            
GRAND VALLEY AREA OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH                
THAT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MORPHING INTO ANOTHER MCS. IT APPEARS AS            
THOUGH THE BRUNT OF THIS MCS WILL MOVE MORE EAST THAN                           
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI VECTORS AND 850-300MB                 
THICKNESS. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS                    
CONVECTION MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE            
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE                   
PANHANDLE REGION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH UPPER SUPPORT              
REALLY NOT JUXTAPOSED WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IT IS                
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT OR EVEN MAKE A GOOD GUESS AT CONVECTIVE                   
INITIATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD MOVING MCS OVER KANSAS.             
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT               
THE CURRENT MCS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS WILL EITHER SURVIVE INTO THE               
AFTERNOON AND RE-INTENSIFY...OR LEAVE BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                
THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A NEW BATCH OF CONVECTION OVER OK/KS THIS            
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING              
SHORTWAVE. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY              
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA...PROBABLY INCHING INTO OUR WESTERN                 
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO                 
RETARD NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE. BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT                  
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION WILL FORM OVER OK/KS THIS                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MID LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO BACK AHEAD OF               
THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DO LIMIT THE               
EASTWARD PROGRESS CONVECTION CAN MAKE...AND ALSO LEAD TO MUCH WEAKER            
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GIVEN THE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW.            
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE MODE            
AND EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. SYNOPTIC SCALE                  
FEATURES APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A                     
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND                    
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...BUT POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS FAR WESTERN                 
MISSOURI. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING                
WILL FORM BENEATH A BACKED SOUTHERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN               
NET MCS MOTION OF LESS THAN 10KT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF OVER              
AN INCH AND A HALF THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY                   
RAINFALL.                                                                       
AGAIN A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION...IF               
THE CONVECTION ORGANIZES IN NORTHWARD MOVING BOWS THEN WIND DAMAGE              
BECOMES THE MAIN CONCERN. IF CONVECTION LAYS OUT PARALLEL TO THE                
FLOW THEN TRAINING AND EXCESSIVE/POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL                  
BECOMES THE MAIN CONCERN. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST                       
CONVECTIVE SCALE FEATURE 12 HOURS OUT...SO WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED              
CLOSELY. REGARDLESS OF THE CONVECTIVE ORIENTATION THE UNIDIRECTIONAL            
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF             
EASTWARD PROGRESSION SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS OVER OUR EASTERN                  
COUNTIES.                                                                       
NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE OUT INTO THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A NEW ROUND OF SEVERE                  
CONVECTION LIKELY OVER EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THAT             
CONVECTION WILL THEN TRY TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR WESTERN CWA...BUT            
GIVEN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IT IS QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION             
WILL MAKE IT SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXIST IN OUR            
NW CWA SATURDAY EVENING.                                                        
SUITE OF NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE WRF (WHICH HAS DONE QUITE               
WELL LATELY) SUGGEST THAT LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL                  
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...LEAVING OUR ONLY HOPES OF              
CONVECTIVE INITIATION PEGGED TO A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY LAID               
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS REALLY DON'T SHOW ANY               
EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...HOWEVER THAT IS LIKELY DUE IN LARGE             
PART TO THE BMJ CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION OVERTURNING THINGS TOO              
MUCH. GIVEN RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SUSPECT THAT THERE WILL BE MORE            
OF A CAP IN PLACE THAN THE NAM INDICATES...WHICH GIVEN ONLY WEAK TO             
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND             
NO APPARENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT I HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS SUNDAY. OUR             
HOPES OF A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS THIS WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE THINNING.            
DIDN'T MAKE ANY CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY...BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS THOUGH             
WE WILL SEE MORE RIDGING WITH THE EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR            
NW...SO CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK PRETTY LOW IN THE EXTENDED.                     
IZZI                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE              
COMPLEX CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN                   
KANSAS.  CORFIDI VECTORS...850-300MB THICKNESS...AND THE ORIENTATION            
OF INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO A SOUTHEAST TURN OF SYSTEM MOVEMENT                 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME...ONLY ADDED VCTS TO THE               
KJLN TERMINAL AS THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY GRAZE FAR WESTERN              
MISSOURI DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS.  REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION             
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.                      
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS CLOUD COVER MAY GREATLY REDUCE                 
INSTABILITY.  FOR NOW...WILL JUST HAVE VFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY              
AND INTO THE EVENING.                                                           
SAW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
922 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE 12Z                  
SOUNDING SHOWING PRECIP WATER CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. INSTABILITY ALSO               
PRESENT WITH UNMODIFIED LI NEAR MINUS 5 AND CAPE AROUND 1800 J/KG.              
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS CURRENTLY INDICATING A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY                
OVER OUR CWA WITH GFS/ETA AND RUC ALL INDICATING WEAK SUBSIDENCE. WILL          
CONSEQUENTLY LOWER POPS A BIT FROM CATEGORICAL STATUS ESP INLAND...WHILE        
INDICATING CONTINUED HI POPS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. FCST MAX TEMPS              
STILL LOOK FINE AND NO OTHER CHGS TO CURRENT FCST PLANNED.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT THIS             
MORNING.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SCT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH             
SHOWER OR STORM PRODUCING IFR CONDS.                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS THE CWF AREA ARE MOSTLY SE AOB 15 KT. CURRENT            
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES AND REMOVE MORNING                
WORDING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY             
N OF CAPE LOOKOUT.                                                              
.RIP CURRENTS... RESIDUAL EASTERLY SWELL COMBINED WITH WEAK ONSHORE             
FLOW WILL PRODUCE A HIGH THREAT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF              
HSE AND A MODERATE THREAT FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF HATTERAS THROUGH              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154-156 UNTIL 11 PM FRIDAY.            
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150 UNTIL 1 AM SATURDAY.                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COLLINS                                                            
AVIATION...PRINGLE                                                              
MARINE...PRINGLE                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1001 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES.               
COMPLEX SITUATION WITH MANY PARAMETERS TO TALK ABOUT...WILL ONLY                
MENTION MOST IMPORTANT. THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH RED RIVER                 
VALLEY WITH 700MB FLOW UP VALLEY. ISENTROPIC LIFT/700MB                         
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO PLAY A ROLE THROUGH THE DAY AS THETA-E RIDGE             
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PROPAGATING EAST. WITH FORCING AND WEAK                   
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG VALLEY. QPF UP TO AN              
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD BE ALONG FAR                
WESTERN FORECAST AREA (FA) IF CLOUDS CLEAR. THIS WOULD GIVE MLCAPES             
1000-1200 J/KG. MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE POSITION OF SFC BOUNDARY AND             
AMOUNT OF HEATING. CURRENTLY MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS                   
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH 12Z NAM/RUC INDICATING SFC BOUNDARY/BEST              
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ALL IN ALL FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.               
UPDATE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SENT BY 1030AM.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...ESF ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.                      
MN...ESF ISSUED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GRAFENAUER                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...12Z AVIATION UPDATE                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
639 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
UPR LO SLOWLY MOVING ACRS KY THIS MRNG.  HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN               
PCPN ACRS CNTRL KY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPR LO AND ASSOCD MID LVL               
VORT.  SCT -SHRA STARTING TO WORK INTO SRN FCST AREA.  IN SHORT                 
TERM...KCVG/KLUK/KILN ALL HAVE BEST SHOT OF SEEING PCPN.  HAVE                  
INDICATED VCSH TO START...THEN BRING IN PREVAILING -SHRA FROM MID               
MRNG TO ERLY AFTN AS UPR LO AND MID LVL VORT PASS TO SOUTH OF FCST              
AREA.  NRN TAF SITES WILL SEE SCT -SHRA BUT EXPECTING LESS                      
COVERAGE IN DAY/CMH METROS.  WILL COVER WITH VCSH.  CIGS HAVE                   
LOWERED INTO MVFR CAT INVOF OF UPR LO FROM NEAR KSDF SOUTHWARD                  
INTO NRN TN.  THIS SHOULD ROTATE INTO FCST AREA AHEAD OF UPR LO                 
FOR LATER THIS MRNG.  WILL SEE CIGS LIFT THIS AFTN AS UPR LO                    
BEGINS TO WEAKEN.  MAY EVEN SEE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTN.                  
WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPR LO THIS AFTN AND RUC/NAM INDCG SOME                 
WEAK INSTABILITY WITH DIURNAL HEATING...COULD SEE FEW TSRA.                     
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS                 
PLENTY OF LO LVL MOISTURE REMAINS.  LIKELY TO SEE FOG FORMATION AS              
DEWPTS PROGGED TO RISE INTO L/M60S.  HAVE INDICATED MVFR VSBYS                  
LATE...WITH IFR AT KLUK.                                                        
RYAN                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 332 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                            
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WATER                 
VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW STACKED OVER TOP THE SURFACE LOW.  SATELLITE              
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.                       
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS MUCH OF THE REGION DRY AT THE MOMENT WITH                 
SOME CONVECTION SHOWING UP NEAR KLEX.                                           
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN.                  
THE SUBTLE TIMING OF MID LEVEL WAVES IS OF COURSE EVIDENT.                      
OVERALL...CHANCE POPS WILL HANDEL EXPECTED CONDITIONS FOR TODAY                 
INTO THIS EVENING.  MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY ALONG WITH NOT MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH LEAD TO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  PRECIP              
EFFICIENCIES SHOW BEST THREAT OVER NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND                       
SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 00Z.  LACK OF FORCING AND UPPER RIDGE                     
BUILDING IN WILL CUT OFF THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THE REST OF                   
TONIGHT.  HAVE KEPT THE MO CLOUDY SKIES FOR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER, IT               
MAY END UP BEING A PC.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO A LOT OF MOISTURE              
STILL HANGING AROUND.  THUS HAVE LET CURRENT FORECAST STAND.                    
WILL REINTRODUCE POPS SAT AFT WITH GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW...MODERATE               
INSTABILITY AND A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS FA.  THREAT WILL                 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.                                                  
MAV TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN GENERAL.  THE ONLY REAL DEVIATION IS              
FOR SATURDAY WHERE MET HIGHS LOOKED A BETTER.                                   
TIPTON                                                                          
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
EXTENDED HAS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  HAVE REDUCED POPS                    
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  GFS SUGGESTS COMPLETELY DRY BUT BUT WILL NOT              
BITE ON IT YET AS MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME LOCKING ONTO A                   
SOLUTION.  WILL LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT NEW RUN AND DECIDE WHETHER                
POP STAYS OR GOES.  FOR THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THE EXTENDED SEE                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 350 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2005)                                             
PREVIOUS LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                               
HAVE OPTED CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD.  WARM FRONT LIFTS              
NORTHEAST ACROSS REGION ON SATURDAY.  SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT                      
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPS SO HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS              
TIME. REGION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AND SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS                 
BEFORE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY.                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES FOR END OF EXTENDED                
PERIOD.  HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPS.                    
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1005 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                     
WATCH...AND TO READJUST POPS AND WEATHER FOR LATE THIS MORNING                  
AND AFTERNOON.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHING UP THROUGH BIG BEND THIS MORNING WITH                  
STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF IT. RUC MUCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG AND DEW POINTS              
IN UPPER 60S...SO LOTS OF INSTABILITY. MOST OF CONVECTION JUST                  
WEST OF CWA...FROM ALPINE AND FORT STOCKTON...NORTHWARD TO MIDLAND              
AND LUBBOCK...TRAINING NORTHEAST. WEAKER AND MORE SCATTERED                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERTORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF CWA.                 
THIS IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING IN SOME RESPECTS...GIVEN THE STRONG                 
INSTABILITY WITH SHORTWAVE.                                                     
BOTH GFS AND NAM MODELS JUST GRAZE WESTERN CWA CURRENTLY OVER THE               
PERMIAN BASIN TO LUBBOCK...WITH PERMIAN BASIN MCS. THEY ALSO HINT               
AT MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SECONDARY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE                       
INDICATING UP TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR SONORA BY 7 AM THIS MORNING.                 
THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED YET...BUT STILL HAVE THE MONITOR POTENTIAL                
AS BOTH MODELS BRING STRONG 700 HT UVVS ACROSS CWA DURING THE MORNING           
HOURS.                                                                          
WITH STRONG INSTABILILTY...WILL MENTION SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL               
IN ZONES FOR THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                  
WATCHES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS TRAINING                          
POTENTIAL...AS CURRENT STORMS IN PERMIAN BASIN ATTEST. HEAVIEST                 
EARLY MORNING RAINFALL APPEARS TO GRAZE                                         
CROCKETT...IRION...STERLING...NOLAN...FISHER AND HASKELL COUNTIES.              
LIFT FROM  SHORTWAVE EXITS CWA BY NOON. KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT              
CHANCE/CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN BIG COUNTRY AND HEARTLAND                  
COUNTIES...HOWEVER...WITH OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                  
LEFT OUT RAIN MENTION IN AFTERNOON FOR CONCHO VALLEY AND AREAS                  
SOUTHWARD.                                                                      
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER CWA. MENTIONED A SLIGHT               
CHANCE/CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK                       
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS...THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING                 
FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ALL NEXT                  
WEEK...WITH WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW LOFT. LONG               
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER               
CHANCE OF STORMS.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
309 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TDA THRU SUN NGT                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS WINDOW WL BE TSTM TRENDS AND SVR THREAT TNGT              
THRU SAT NGT.  CURRENT SITUATION HAS POTENT SHRT WV LIFTING OUT OF              
BASE OF RCKYS LG WV TROF.  STG KINEMATIC FORCING HAD OF THIS FEATURE            
REFLECTED IN QG FORCING MAX LIFTING ACRS KS/NE.  THETA-E ADVCTN ALSO            
EXPANDING FM NE INTO MO WITH EVERYTHING LIFTING NEWD.  DO NOT THINK             
ANY MDL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION SO FCST CONFIDENCE                       
LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY.  NAM DOES NOT SEEM TO                   
RECOGNIZE BLOSSOMING OF KS CONVECTION AHD OF SHRT WV...AND WHILE GFS            
DOES LATCH ONTO THIS...CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVERDVLPS FEATURES INTO              
NE/SD BY MRNG.  RUC13 DVLPS SOME PCPN ACRS KS BY AFTN...BUT DSIPTS              
DRNG THE EVE WHICH ALSO SEEMS UNREASONABLE.  THUS WL FOLLOW MORE OF             
A CONCEPTUAL RATHER THAN NUMERIC MDL THIS PACKAGE.                              
AMS STILL RELATIVELY STABLE OVR IA ATTM SO DO NOT XPC ANYTHING TOO              
SGFNT TNGT...BUT LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING              
PCPN INTO US SO GRDLLY INCRD POPS TO LIKELIES OVNGT FM SW-E.  FEEL              
MCS WL MAKE IT FARTHER INTO FA TMRW.  MDLS...ALBEIT SHAKEY...BOTH               
FOCUS LOW LVL JET INTO IA WITH INSTABILITY AXIS PUSHING EWD INTO US             
AS WELL.  DO NOT HAVE ANY FEELING FOR TRENDS SO JUST WENT WITH                  
BLANKET LIKELY POPS SAT.  EVEN IF MCS DOES DSIPT AGN...WE COULD SEE             
SFC BASED THREAT INCR BY LATE AFTN AS FNT APCHS.  FCST SOUNDINGS                
SUGGEST LTL CIN SO WL EXTEND THE LIKELIES INTO SAT NGT AS WELL.                 
THIS MAY BE OUR PRIMARY SVR WINDOW FOR A FEW DAYS WITH ADAQUATE                 
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  VARIOUS TORNADO PARAMETERS               
POINT TWRD THAT THREAT TOO...SPCLLY IF WE CAN GET SOME KIND OF LOW              
LVL BACKING FROM OUTFLOW BNDRYS OR WEAK WRMFNT.  AGREE WITH SPC                 
HATCHED OUTLOOK AND HAVE ADDED SVR MENTION TO 22-04Z TIME FRAME.                
PCPN THREAT SHOULD DCR SOMEWHAT SUN AS FNT PUSHES EWD AND LRG SCALE             
UVM LIFTS NEWD.  HAVE TAPERRED POPS FM SLGTS W TO CHC E AND THEN                
DROPPED BACK TO SLGTS SUN NGT.  DO NOT SEE MUCH HAPPENING AND MID               
SHIFT MAY WANT TO PULL ALTOGETHER IF SOME MDL CONSISTENCY OCCURS.               
DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEELING FOR TEMPS EITHER DUE TO PCPN POTENTIAL SO            
GENERALLY FOLLOWED A GUIDANCE BLEND THRU PD.                                    
.LONG TERM...MON THRU FRI                                                       
MDLS ARE ACTUALLY COMING TO A LTL BETTER CONSENSUS...AT LEAST EARLY             
IN THIS PD...BUT UNFORTUNATELY DETAILS WITH BNDRY PLACEMENT STILL               
SKETCHY.  RDG BUILDS INTO MO VLY WITH WRMFNT DVLPG INVOF IA/MN                  
BORDER OR A BIT FARTHER S.  SOLUTIONS VARY FM 00Z GFS ENSEMBLES AND             
ECMWF FARTHER INTO IA...WHILE DGEX...CANADIAN AND OPERATIONAL GFS               
FARTHER N.  THIS SHOULD GIVE US A LTL BREAK TO START THE PD...BUT               
QUESTION LOOKS MOOT BY TUE NGT THROUGH THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK AS MOST            
SOLUTIONS SLIDE BNDRY RIGHT INTO THE HEART OF IA WITH PTN LOCKED                
INTO WRN TROF/ERN RDG.  HAVE EITHER INTRODUCED POPS OR RAISED A BIT             
FURTHER INTO CHC CATEGORY DRNG THIS PD AS SUGGESTED BY ENSEMBLE MOS             
AND PCPN PROBS.  WL LEAN TWRD RECENT N.A. MDL SOLUTIONS AS ECMWF                
DOES NOT SUPPORT GFS/DGEX/CANADIAN OR ASSOCD ENSEMBLES WITH WRN TROF            
BEING SO FAR W ARND 00Z FRI.  THIS PD COULD BE QUITE WET WITH                   
FLOODING POTENTIAL...SPCLLY IF WE TAKE A FEW EVENTS THIS WEEKEND.               
LOOKS LIKE PROLONGED PD OF UPR LVL SWLY FLOW.  LLJ DOES NOT APPR TO             
BE TOO STG AND GFS CONTS TO OVERDO LOW LVL MSTR...BUT ELEVATED ISENT            
LIFT CERTAINLY PRESENT OVER BNDRY.  DO NOT FEEL ESF WARRANTED YET               
BUT SITUATION WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...MORE BECAUSE OF REPETITIVENESS            
RATHER THAN JUICED AMS.                                                         
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHGS TO TEMPS.  DID BACK OFF A BIT ON MAXES               
HWVR BY MIDWEEK WITH PTN WETTER THAN XPCD YDA.  SEE NO REASON FOR               
TEMPS NOT TO HOVER ARND CLIMO WHICH IS CLOSE TO GFS MOS AND                     
ENSEMBLE MEAN.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FAB/BSS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
450 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL/STRENGTH THROUGH                     
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN            
SASK WITH A DOWNSTREAM RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST UPSTREAM             
SHRTWVS/VORTS WERE LOCATED OVER SRN UT AND OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE             
WHILE A WEAKER SHRTWV WAS MOVING NE OUT OF SW MN. AT THE SFC...SE               
FLOW PREVAILED BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN LAKES AND DEVELOPING LOW             
PRES OVER THE PLAINS. VIS LOOP INDICATED HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING INTO             
THE W HALF OF UPR MI WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION HAD BROUGHT            
A LOWER CLOUD DECK TO A A MNM-GLR LINE.                                         
TONIGHT...SATELLITE TRENDS AND NAM 925-850 MB RH PROGS...WHICH HAS              
DECENT GRASP OF CURRENT SITUATION...SUGGEST CLOUD DECK TO THE SOUTH             
WILL CONTINUE SO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACRS UPR MI. INCREASE IN CLOUDS               
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH EVEN THOUGH WINDS                  
SHOULD AGAIN BECOME LGT SE OR VRBL OVERNIGHT.                                   
SAT INTO NIGHT...MDLS SUGGEST THAT REMNANTS OF THE SRN PLAINS                   
SHRTWV WILL RIDE NE INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY BY LATE SAT...BRUSHING               
THE WRN LAKES BY SAT NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE                  
PLAINS MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW OVER ERN SD BY 00Z/SUN MAY BE OVERDONE             
BY THE GLBL MDLS (ESPECIALLY THE GFS) DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK(PER            
HPC DISC)...THE FCST STILL LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WITH             
THE ONSET OF PCPN AS THE NAM STILL SEEMS TOO EAGER TO BRING DEEPER              
MOISTURE EAST INTO UPR MI...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE                 
PATTERN. BY SAT NIGHT...COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET              
WITH H8 WINDS TO AROUND 40 KT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIV SHOULD             
BRING BEST PCPN CHANCE ACRS UPR MI. LOW LEVEL THETA-E RDG AND                   
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY INTO UPR MI WITH H8 DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 12C              
(SHOWALTER -3) WILL ALSO BRING SOME TSTMS TO THE AREA.                          
HOWEVER...DEEP LYR SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED               
STORMS.                                                                         
SUN...MDL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THE GFS BRINGS THE                
STACKED LOW JUST N OF KINL BY 00Z/MON WHILE THE WEAKER NAM PUSHES               
THE LOW FARTHER NE. EITHER SCENARIO WILL LEAVE UPPER MI WITH                    
UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. MODIFIED MDL                 
SNDGS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WOULD GIVE             
CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WHILE BETTER SHEAR SPREADS               
OVER THE AREA. SO...BETTER SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE EXPECTED                      
SUN...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS THIN ENOUGH FOR DECENT INSOLATION AND                
TRAILING SHRTWV LOBE AROUND THE MID LVL LOW COINCIDES WITH DIURNAL              
MAX.                                                                            
MON...THE GFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE            
FROM NRN ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY LEAVING A DRIER WRLY FLOW ACRS UPR            
MI. SINCE GFS MDL SNDGS SHOW RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE PROFILE...THE                
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WERE REMOVED.                                                 
TUE-FRI...LACK OF MODEL CONTINUITY AND SIGNIFICANT MDL DIFFERENCES              
LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS BASIC                
AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF A WRN TROF AND ERN RDG...PCPN             
CHANCES HINGE ON POSITION OF THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE               
THE 00Z ENS MEAN WOULD SUGGEST THAT THAT THIS FEATURE WOULD MOVE                
FROM THE VCNTY OF THE WRN LAKES TUE TO MAINLY S OF THE AREA...THE               
00Z/06Z/12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN GLBL STILL SHOW A FLATTER              
ERN RDG WITH THE FRONT CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA FOR SHRA/TSRA                   
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE FCST REFLECTS A COMPROMISE            
BTWN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENS MEAN WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND DRYING             
TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WITH MORE             
CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO ADD FLOOD WATCH POINTS                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
322 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SHOWER              
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TEASE THE WESTERN EDGES OF               
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE                  
ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE                       
INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE               
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO               
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON                     
HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY LOSE INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE            
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA.                                                  
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST              
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX            
TO EVOLVE TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST               
ACROSS KANSAS...AND A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET INDUCES A WEST-EAST                 
ORIENTED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS               
WILL YIELD AN ELEVATED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE             
OUT ISOLATED SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AS WELL.              
MOST PRIMED AREA FOR FLOODING WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A                 
BETHANY TO RICHMOND TO BUTLER LINE...WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN                  
EFFECT UNTIL NOON SATURDAY. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS BETWEEN THE            
HOURS OF MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM.                                                     
SATURDAY APPEARS AS IT WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY...ESPECIALLY                  
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BOTH NAM AND GFS                   
SOLUTIONS PROG THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY HEALTHY SHORTWAVE...AND              
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD A POTENTIAL            
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH PROGGED CAPES OF 2500 J/KG...AND                    
700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.            
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY             
ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH                                 
APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST                   
MISSOURI. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL/FORECASTER UNCERTAINTY ON THE               
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE               
SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.                                  
THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A                  
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILD OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI MONDAY AND TUESDAY. I            
HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE               
PATTERN BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND              
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. THE PATTERN                    
ADVERTISED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS                
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH AN EAST WEST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE            
REGION AND DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.                      
SCHMIT/KOCH                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
330 AM CDT FRI...                                                               
MESSY...MESSY...MESSY. THAT IS WHAT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WILL BRING AS               
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES/MCS FEATURES WILL MAKE IT A JOY TO             
HIT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND BREAK DOWN ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION.                 
LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DENOTED BY LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE                   
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SHORTWAVE OVER NV ROTATING UNDERNEATH...THIS              
FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN                 
MEXICO WILL ALSO BE A PLAYER FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT.                            
IN THE SHORT TERM MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND TRAILING BACK            
INTO CENTRAL KS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST ON THE               
SOUTHERN END. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CAP HAS THWARTED DEVELOPMENT OF               
CONVECTION ANY FURTHER SOUTHWEST. STILL EXPECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF MCS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MO                   
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SINCE MCS WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE               
ENVIRONMENT...I.E. MORE STABLE/LESS MOISTURE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO             
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS NOTED BY 00Z            
GFS AND LATEST RUC QPF. HAVE DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL             
BE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO REMNANTS OF               
MCS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE                
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY OVER WESTERN CWA FOR TODAY.             
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD              
COVER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.                                                 
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP FOR TONIGHT TO LIKELY CATEGORY OVER ALL BUT FAR             
EASTERN CWA AS SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LIFTS NORTHEAST. 850MB            
LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO VEER THIS EVENING AND DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE            
NORTHWARD AND AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AND COULD HAVE A HYDRO PROBLEM OVER             
FAR WESTERN CWA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES/1 HOUR.                  
HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES               
LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION COULD PLAY A ROLE IN SCATTERED               
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BETTER BET FOR CONVECTION STARTS LATE SATURDAY            
AFTERNOON OR BETTER YET SATURDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE NOW ROLLING               
THROUGH NV IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH KS. A            
STALLED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORTHWEST MO BY SATURDAY              
AFTERNOON WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET REFORMING OVER EASTERN KS.             
BY THIS TIME THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRANSPORT                 
UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS INTO THE REGION. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVER                      
FORECASTING THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS...AND THUS INSTABILITY.                     
NONETHELESS EXPECT TO SEE MUCAPES WELL IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ON                
SATURDAY WITH SUFFICIENT 0-6KM SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.              
HAVE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO REST OF FORECAST WITH THE MOST NOTABLE               
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY TO SLIGHT CATEGORY.                             
MJ                                                                              
809 PM CDT THU...                                                               
MINOR REVISION TO SLOW DOWN THUNDERSTORM ARRIVAL A BIT IN THE                   
NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ONGOING STORMS STILL WELL              
WEST OF REGION...AND UPPER AIR THIS EVENING SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF              
DRY AIR LEFT OVER IN EASTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED            
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT ANY RETURN FLOW SET UP NOT TO                
OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THUS WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF EVENING             
POPS.                                                                           
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-           
     MOZ005-MOZ011-MOZ012-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ020-MOZ021-MOZ022-                   
     MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ037-MOZ043-MOZ053.                                 
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-KSZ057-KSZ060-KSZ102-           
     KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
300 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                      
SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE SHORT TERM MODELS TODAY.  BIGGEST CONCERN IS             
FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.  HAVE DECIDED              
TO GO WITH A MODIFIED GFS SOLUTION.  AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                
NORTH OF MONTANA IS CAPTURED UNDER THE H5 UPPER LEVEL LOW.  A                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS FROM THAT LOW TO A WEAK LOW IN SOUTHERN NORTH             
DAKOTA AND THEN CONTINUES SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. THIS FRONT IS SLOWLY             
MOVING EAST.  60+ DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY             
WITH 40-50 DEWPOINTS FARTHER WEST.  CONVECTION IS STARTING TO SHOW              
UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. 17Z RUC SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES APPROACHING             
1100 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MOSTLY GONE. AN AREA OF                    
CONVERGENCE NEAR ABERDEEN IS SHOWING UP ON LATEST WSR-88D IMAGE WITH            
INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS MOVING NORTH.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL                    
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF THIS FORECAST AREA WHICH APPEARS             
TO BE A REFLECTION OF AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET.  EXPECT THIS                 
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.  MODELS DIFFER TONIGHT            
AS ETA DAMPENS UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND GFS SEEMS              
TO OVER DEVELOP IT.  FAVOR A BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION AS GFS HAS A                
BETTER HANDLE ON INCREASING H85 JET AS DEPICTED ON WOOD LAKE                    
MINNESOTA PROFILER BUT SUFFERS FROM FEEDBACK TONIGHT.  TOMORROW                 
DURING THE MORNING AN H5 WAVE ROTATES A SURFACE LOW THROUGH EASTERN             
SOUTH DAKOTA.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME.  IT             
WILL FINALLY END LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH                
AFTERNOON HEATING.  HAVE A CONCERN FOR CONVECTION FORMING ALONG                 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST PART OF THIS AREA.  AFTER              
LAST NIGHTS HEAVY RAINS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS JUST OVER ONE INCH.             
EXPECT THIS VALUE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD                
WATCH AT THIS TIME.  WILL MONITOR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AS AREA             
MOVES EAST.                                                                     
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MDLS WITH THE FLOW PATTERN FOR TUES-FRI.             
BIG UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE SW US WITH UPPER RIDGING DOWNSTREAM.               
WITH SETUP...WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE ABR             
CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED. S/WS EJECTING OVER THE REGION INTERACTING             
WITH AN EAST/WEST THERMAL ZONE WILL BRING CHCS OF TSRAS TO THE CWA.             
AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE S/WS WILL AFFECT THE CWA TUES AFTN                
THROUGH WED NIGHT. WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS FOR NOW FOR THIS TIME                  
PERIOD AND WILL ALSO LEAVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW.                     
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KEEFE/MOHR                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sd