AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
630 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FOR TODAY. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA HIT THE                 
STATE LINE AND POW...VAPOR. NOT THAT THE MODELS WERE OFF ON                     
THIS...BUT WAS EXPECTING AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH TO GET SQUEEZED OUT               
OVER MOST OF NW 1/3RD OF CWA. NOT SO SURE NOW UNLESS NEW ACTIVITY               
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHC FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE              
ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES.                                                          
SNELSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                            
HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO               
NORTH GA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG LEADING               
EDGE OF FRONT HAS BEEN VIGOROUS ALL MORNING LONG BUT IS FINALLY                 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CG FREQUENCY WITHIN THE COMPLEX HAS               
DROPPED TO BELOW 100 STRIKES/15 MIN. NORTHERN AL LMA DATA NOT                   
AVAILABLE ATTM. THIS WEAKENING ALSO PROGGED BY MODELS AS INSTABILITY            
WANES THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...NO SFC-BASED CAPE INDICATED BY               
NMM/WRF OR GFS ACROSS CWA. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH                
AN ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY BUT SVR STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN            
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SYSTEM. FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS                 
QUICKLY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. W TO NW WINDS                
OF 15-19 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z                 
TONIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                 
SHOULD BE A VERY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.            
TEMPS SHOULD COOL DRAMATICALLY BEHIND FRONT OVER WRN ZONES THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND REST OF CWA TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL NOT TOO COLD DURING              
THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED. USED BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV              
GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR PERIODS WITH MORE              
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE.                                                  
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                      
JUST TO SPITE ME...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (ECMWF/GFS/DGEX) ARE                 
NOW PROGGING A MONSTER TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR                  
WED. THE ONE FORECAST BY THE THURSDAY 18Z DGEX THAT THIS                        
FORECASTER WAS DISSING THIS TIME YESTERDAY. YEA. WELL...WE WILL                 
SEE HOW IT PANS OUT. WITH THIS AGREEMENT HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO                 
HIGH CHC CATEGORY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...NOT QUITE THE LIKELIES                
AS MEX HAS. INDICATED TSRA FOR WED. IF MONSTER TROUGH AND 990MB                 
SFC LOW OVER SRN INDIANA VERIFIES... COULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS                  
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE DANGER...                                                                 
SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST                      
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME CRITICAL RH VALUES MET FOR                  
SEVERAL HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE                 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.                                                             
SNELSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD             
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS            
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP AT                          
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED SITES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY                 
FILTERED IN...ONCE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN SOME OF THE FOG                 
FORMATION WILL BE SHUT DOWN SINCE COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BE SLOWED.             
CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS            
FIZZLED OUT OVER MS/AL...BUT NAM/RUC BOTH SEEM TO THINK THAT PRECIP             
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...               
PLAN TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME            
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WRAPAROUND COLD-AIR                
STRATOCU WITH CAA ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS LOW FOR MOST OF               
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST              
AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SEE PUBLIC                    
DISCUSSION ABOVE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          72  42  64  35 /  50  20   0   5                                
ATLANTA         67  39  62  39 /  40  10   0   5                                
BLAIRSVILLE     63  39  58  31 /  60  20   0   5                                
CARTERSVILLE    64  38  60  31 /  60  10   0   5                                
COLUMBUS        70  43  67  38 /  30   5   0   5                                
GAINESVILLE     67  41  61  38 /  50  20   0   5                                
MACON           77  40  70  33 /  30  10   0   5                                
ROME            58  40  62  31 /  70  10   0   5                                
PEACHTREE CITY  69  39  63  30 /  40  10   0   5                                
VIDALIA         80  47  69  39 /  20  20   0   5                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
530 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                            
HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVELENGTH SYSTEM TO MOVE FROM MISSOURI INTO               
NORTH GA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG LEADING               
EDGE OF FRONT HAS BEEN VIGOROUS ALL MORNING LONG BUT IS FINALLY                 
SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS CG FREQUENCY WITHIN THE COMPLEX HAS               
DROPPED TO BELOW 100 STRIKES/15 MIN. NORTHERN AL LMA DATA NOT                   
AVAILABLE ATTM. THIS WEAKENING ALSO PROGGED BY MODELS AS INSTABILITY            
WANES THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...NO SFC-BASED CAPE INDICATED BY               
NMM/WRF OR GFS ACROSS CWA. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH                
AN ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TODAY BUT SVR STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN            
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SYSTEM. FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS                 
QUICKLY WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT. W TO NW WINDS                
OF 15-19 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 06Z                 
TONIGHT. SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                 
SHOULD BE A VERY SUNNY DAY SUNDAY EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER.            
TEMPS SHOULD COOL DRAMATICALLY BEHIND FRONT OVER WRN ZONES THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND REST OF CWA TONIGHT. TEMPS STILL NOT TOO COLD DURING              
THE DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED. USED BIAS-ADJUSTED MAV              
GUIDANCE AND A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR PERIODS WITH MORE              
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GUIDANCE.                                                  
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)                                      
JUST TO SPITE ME...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS (ECMWF/GFS/DGEX) ARE                 
NOW PROGGING A MONSTER TROUGH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR                  
WED. THE ONE FORECAST BY THE THURSDAY 18Z DGEX THAT THIS                        
FORECASTER WAS DISSING THIS TIME YESTERDAY. YEA. WELL...WE WILL                 
SEE HOW IT PANS OUT. WITH THIS AGREEMENT HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO                 
HIGH CHC CATEGORY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...NOT QUITE THE LIKELIES                
AS MEX HAS. INDICATED TSRA FOR WED. IF MONSTER TROUGH AND 990MB                 
SFC LOW OVER SRN INDIANA VERIFIES... COULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS                  
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE DANGER...                                                                 
SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT MOIST                      
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME CRITICAL RH VALUES MET FOR                  
SEVERAL HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE                 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.                                                             
SNELSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WINDS A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BUT THEY SHOULD             
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS            
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP AT                          
CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREFERRED SITES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY                 
FILTERED IN...ONCE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS MOVE IN SOME OF THE FOG                 
FORMATION WILL BE SHUT DOWN SINCE COOLING POTENTIAL WILL BE SLOWED.             
CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING THROUGH THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS            
FIZZLED OUT OVER MS/AL...BUT NAM/RUC BOTH SEEM TO THINK THAT PRECIP             
WILL REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...               
PLAN TO BRING IN LOWER CLOUDS AT BEGINNING OF TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME            
MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. WRAPAROUND COLD-AIR                
STRATOCU WITH CAA ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CEILINGS LOW FOR MOST OF               
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST              
AND INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SEE PUBLIC                    
DISCUSSION ABOVE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATHENS          72  42  64  35 /  50  20   0   5                                
ATLANTA         67  39  62  39 /  40  10   0   5                                
BLAIRSVILLE     63  39  58  31 /  60  20   0   5                                
CARTERSVILLE    64  38  60  31 /  60  10   0   5                                
COLUMBUS        70  43  67  38 /  30   5   0   5                                
GAINESVILLE     67  41  61  38 /  50  20   0   5                                
MACON           77  40  70  33 /  30  10   0   5                                
ROME            58  40  62  31 /  70  10   0   5                                
PEACHTREE CITY  69  39  63  30 /  40  10   0   5                                
VIDALIA         80  47  69  39 /  20  20   0   5                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1011 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION AS AN                         
APPROACHING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND STALLS OVER NORTH                        
CENTRAL MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD                         
NORTHWEST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE                       
REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO EXTREME              
NORTHERN MAINE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT.                      
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ONTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
BASED ON THE LATEST RUC MODEL FORECAST DECIDED TO DECREASE THE                  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM ALL ZONES TODAY. RUC ALONG WITH 12Z NAM            
WRF INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST MAINE ESPECIALLY               
NORTHERN ZONES 1 AND 3 BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL              
AFTER SUNSET ELSEWHERE. SAT AND RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUPPORT THIS AS WELL.         
ALSO...ADJUSTED SKY EARLY ON BASED ON SAT TRENDS AND ONLY TWEAKED               
HIGH TEMPS UP A NOTCH TODAY BASED ON CURRENTS OBS.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHANGES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT BROUGHT DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA                       
DURING THE LAST TWENTY FOUR HOURS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST                     
EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING CLOUDS                  
ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH                
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE                 
AND WITHIN THE DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC ZONE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST.              
THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM HINGES ON STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL              
FRONTOGENESIS AND ACCOMPANYING LARGE SCALE LIFT RESULTING IN THE                
OVERRUNNING PATTERN THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF                 
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                            
BOTH THE NAM WRF AND GFS INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL Q-VECTOR FORCING                
AND CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH NORTH                 
CENTRAL MAINE TODAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE           
CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL ESTABLISH A BAND                      
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. HAVE INCREASED TO POPS TO                   
LIKELY FOR ZONE 1 WITH HIGH CHANCE CONTINUING FOR ZONES 2>4 THIS                
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN...HOWEVER AS             
SURFACE HIGH OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE BUILDS AND ENHANCES A                 
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...THE COLUMN COOLS             
CONSIDERABLY ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AOB FREEZING ACROSS                   
NORTHWEST MAINE AND THROUGHOUT THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. IN-HOUSE                  
SNOW TOOL SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE ALLAGASH WILDERNESS                 
AND SAINT JOHN VALLEY WITH UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG TWENTY                 
TOWNSHIP /ESTCOURT STATION/ BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MIXED                 
PRECIPITATION ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN ZONE 2 FROM                 
VAN BUREN TO HAMLIN WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.                   
ELSEWHERE EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT.                 
LOW LEVEL SUPPORT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY                  
MOVES TOWAD THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE                     
REFLECTED THIS THINKING WITH LOWERING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND A               
GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS DOWNEAST FOR SUNDAY.                                   
WENT BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WHICH                
LOCAL STUDY SUPPORTS WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST CAA IN PLACE.                      
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                     
STILL SOME MAJOR DISAGREEMENTS ON THE MOVEMENT OF MID ATLC LOW                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL...EJECTING LOW ACROSS           
THE STATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF WAITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY.              
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE              
SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.               
WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL               
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING...             
THEN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH OVERRUNNING PATTERN ACROSS THE               
NORTHERN TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR               
DOWNEAST TODAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH APPROACHING FRONT AND                
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.                                  
MARINE...                                                                       
SHORT TERM: SWELL AROUND 6 FT STILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS                   
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA HEADLINE AS EXPECT                   
WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA /IN GUSTS/ WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW                
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.                                   
LONG TERM: COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW                    
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL PRODUCE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS                
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE                 
TWO SURFACE FEATURES...EXPECT SEAS AND WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA        
DURING THIS TIME.                                                               
&&                                                                              
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ050 UNTIL 5 PM SATURDAY.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...DUDA                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST ISSUES OVERNIGHT ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS.                                    
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATOCU DECK HANGING TOUGH ACROSS              
UPPER MI. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW TRANSIENT SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD             
COVER OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL UPPER MI...BUT BREAKS HAVE FILLED IN              
FOR THE MOST PART RECENTLY. MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BLO SHARP INVERSION             
BASED AT ABOUT 3.5KFT AGL PER TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM FLIGHT OUT OF                
KSAW JUST BEFORE 01Z. ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGE IS PASSING ACROSS UPPER MI             
ATTM...NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OVERNIGHT...                
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT WINDS INTIALLY AFTER RIDGE PASSAGE WILL             
BE A SE UPSLOPING FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE              
FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SE TO S FLOW OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI TOWARD LAKE             
SUPERIOR IS DOWNSLOPING AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE SOME BREAK UP OF                
STRATOCU THERE. OTHERWISE...AS FLOW BECOMES STRONGER AND SRLY VERY              
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING...STRATOCU SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP              
ALL AREAS. THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS SW WI. WITH MORE CLOUD               
COVER EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT...HAVE BUMPED MIN TEMPS UP INTO THE               
20S EVERYWHERE. IF ANY PERSISTENT HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD               
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL/E WHERE SNOWCOVER IS PRESENT...TEMPS WILL                
DROP INTO THE TEENS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 354 PM EST                                        
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A                 
POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM ERN ONTARIO AND LWR MI TO               
THE LWR MS VALLEY...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE                
UPPER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT THE                   
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED E OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED             
FROM NRN ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IA TO TX. SRLY FLOW              
WAS INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A TROUGH            
FROM SRN SASK INTO ERN WY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING              
OVER FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR INTO NW WI..BENEATH STRONG 850 MB                     
INVERSION...PER 19Z KCMX TAMDAR SOUNDING. MORE CELLULAR LAKE EFFECT             
CLOUDS PERSISTED WITH NNE FLOW FROM E LK SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL AND E              
UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR                
CONTINUED LIGHT LES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWED MAINLY               
JUST SCT -SHSN OR FLURRIES.                                                     
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                              
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPS.                       
ANY LINGERING LES OVER CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD DIMINISH AND END EARLY               
THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.              
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING OVER NW WI...THE                
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION HAS             
HINDERED ANY CLEARING. THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT AS THE RDG AXIS                
SLIDES TO THE EAST RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE CLOUDS NORTH OF               
UPPER MI WHILE THE NAM...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH LOW LVL                      
MOISTURE...IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH              
CNTRL WI...A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY. IN             
ADDITION...HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WERE ALREADY             
STREAMING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. COMBINATION OF GREATER CLOUD COVER              
AND INCREASING S WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP              
TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR...EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT SNOW COVER              
IN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E UPR MI.                                              
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO CNTRL UPR MI LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LONG SRLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MI AND             
925 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR -4C. OTHERWISE...SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH                   
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY. SNOW COVER SHOULD                 
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MI.              
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                               
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON INTO                     
CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS AT 00Z. SINCE               
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH               
OVER THE EAST COAST...THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST                   
TOWARDS THE CWA. BY 12Z...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN WESTERN               
WISCONSIN. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH ALSO ALLOWS FOR A 100KT JET                  
STREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OMAHA AT 00Z MON...TO TRACK              
UP TO SAULT SAINTE MARIE BY 12Z...PLACING MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE                
LEFT EXIT REGION (FAVORED FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IN ADDITION              
TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER JET TRACK...NAM/GFS SHOW DECENT MID-LEVEL                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH...ADDING EXTRA VERTICAL MOTION. OTHER              
THAN FOR SOME INITIAL DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN                   
CWA...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z. SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE             
FOR A WHILE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MOST TEMPERATURE                 
PROFILES ON SOUNDINGS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH IS               
ALL BELOW FREEZING...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...                  
THEREFORE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. AS FOR AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE STRONG            
VERTICAL MOTION...AT LEAST A 0.25 INCH OF LIQUID SHOULD BE POSSIBLE.            
BECAUSE OF THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...A 10 TO 1 SNOWFALL               
RATIO WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...HOWEVER WITH THE SATURATED  SNOW GROWTH            
LAYER A FEW THOUSAND FEET DEEP AND PLENTY OF VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT            
LAYER...WILL USE A 15 TO 1 RATIO TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SNOWFALL.                  
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT IF SLIGHTLY MORE QPF OCCURS             
THAN EXPECTED.                                                                  
MONDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING            
MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z. IN FACT...SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS              
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z AHEAD OF                 
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NW U.S.. EXPECT THE BAND OF                       
FRONTOGENETIC SNOWFALL TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE             
SHRTWV TROUGH...AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT BEHIND IT. WITH                
850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND -2C BY THE END OF THE                              
DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO HIT THE UPPER 30S/LOW                
40S.                                                                            
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS THE CWA              
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER THE NW MOVES TOWARDS THE             
PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE                
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...MID/UPPER LEVEL             
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP              
FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY 12Z...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROGGED             
OVER THE EASTERN CWA...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE WESTERN            
U.P.. THEREFORE THIS AREA COULD SEE RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS             
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY                  
EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.                
STILL WENT CLOSE TO COOP GUIDANCE...THOUGH...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                       
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE                
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z WED...SIMILAR TO THAT OF 00Z MON BUT DEEPER.               
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING            
THE DAY. HOWEVER...RH PROFILES ARE VERY DRY...SO LIKELY THE MAIN                
IMPACT FROM THIS SHRTWV WILL BE FOR INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN U.P. LATE IN THE              
DAY. THIS SHRTWV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND               
MOISTURE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THERE. AS FAR AS            
TEMPERATURES GO...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE               
STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.                                                  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL                        
TROUGH...TAKING IT FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING TO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON                
FRIDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE MOTION OF THIS                  
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...BUT GIVEN THE GOOD                       
AGREEMENT...THIS SPEED DIFFERENCE IS NOT A BIG ISSUE. AS FAR AS THE             
TROUGH\S IMPACTS ON THE CWA\S WEATHER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEIGHT              
FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN INTO THE            
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE               
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO             
ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IS NOT THAT                          
SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE GFS (WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A COLD BIAS OUT IN              
THE EXTENDED) INDICATING 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -4C AT 12Z THU. SINCE             
LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY AROUND 6C...NO LAKE EFFECT            
IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE                
NORTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY...WARMER ATLANTIC AIR WRAPS BACK TOWARDS                
UPPER MICHIGAN. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A MIX WITH RAIN AGAIN FOR               
THURSDAY ACROSS THE U.P....THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY                 
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO                 
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS FAST MOVING SHRTWVS TO                 
SLIDE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. ONE OF THESE SHRTWVS THE GFS/ECMWF                
SHOW MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS                 
INDICATE THAT THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -8C BEHIND THE                
SHRTWV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN WARM            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF             
LAKE EFFECT...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO LEAVE SATURDAY DRY WITH THE                 
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...IF              
ANY.                                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY             
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN RELATIVELY MILD 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
LOOKING OUT BEYOND SATURDAY INTO THE WEEK AFTER...PATTERN LOOKS                 
NEARLY ZONAL WHICH FAVORS CONTINUED PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THEREFORE                
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
JLB (SHORT TERM)                                                                
AJ (LONG TERM)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
354 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A                 
POSITIVE TILT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM ERN ONTARIO AND LWR MI TO               
THE LWR MS VALLEY...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE                
UPPER MS VALLEY AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT THE                   
SFC...LOW PRES WAS LOCATED E OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE A RIDGE EXTENDED             
FROM NRN ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH IA TO TX. SRLY FLOW              
WAS INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF A TROUGH            
FROM SRN SASK INTO ERN WY. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS LINGERING              
OVER FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR INTO NW WI..BENEATH STRONG 850 MB                     
INVERSION...PER 19Z KCMX TAMDAR SOUNDING. MORE CELLULAR LAKE EFFECT             
CLOUDS PERSISTED WITH NNE FLOW FROM E LK SUPERIOR INTO CNTRL AND E              
UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -10C PROVIDED ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR                
CONTINUED LIGHT LES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RADAR SHOWED MAINLY               
JUST SCT -SHSN OR FLURRIES.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...                                             
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPS.                       
ANY LINGERING LES OVER CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD DIMINISH AND END EARLY               
THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS BECOME VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE.              
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING OVER NW WI...THE                
STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRY ADVECTION HAS             
HINDERED ANY CLEARING. THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTS THAT AS THE RDG AXIS                
SLIDES TO THE EAST RETURN SRLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE CLOUDS NORTH OF               
UPPER MI WHILE THE NAM...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH LOW LVL                      
MOISTURE...IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH              
CNTRL WI...A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY. IN             
ADDITION...HIGHER CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WERE ALREADY             
STREAMING TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. COMBINATION OF GREATER CLOUD COVER              
AND INCREASING S WINDS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF SHOULD KEEP              
TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF AS FAR...EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANT SNOW COVER              
IN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E UPR MI.                                              
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS INTO CNTRL UPR MI LATE                   
TONIGHT INTO SUN WITH LONG SRLY FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE MI AND             
925 MB TEMPS FCST NEAR -4C. OTHERWISE...SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH                   
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY. SNOW COVER SHOULD                 
AGAIN KEEP TEMPS AOB GUIDANCE FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF CNTRL UPR MI.              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...                              
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIOD OF SNOW SUNDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHRTWV TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WASHINGTON INTO                     
CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS AT 00Z. SINCE               
FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH               
OVER THE EAST COAST...THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST                   
TOWARDS THE CWA. BY 12Z...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED IN WESTERN               
WISCONSIN. THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH ALSO ALLOWS FOR A 100KT JET                  
STREAK...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF OMAHA AT 00Z MON...TO TRACK              
UP TO SAULT SAINTE MARIE BY 12Z...PLACING MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE                
LEFT EXIT REGION (FAVORED FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). IN ADDITION              
TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER JET TRACK...NAM/GFS SHOW DECENT MID-LEVEL                
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH...ADDING EXTRA VERTICAL MOTION. OTHER              
THAN FOR SOME INITIAL DRY AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN                   
CWA...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS               
MUCH OF THE CWA BY 12Z. SINCE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FEATURE             
FOR A WHILE...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL. MOST TEMPERATURE                 
PROFILES ON SOUNDINGS WHEN THE PRECIPITATION IS MOVING THROUGH IS               
ALL BELOW FREEZING...EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN...                  
THEREFORE MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED. AS FOR AMOUNTS...GIVEN THE STRONG            
VERTICAL MOTION...AT LEAST A 0.25 INCH OF LIQUID SHOULD BE POSSIBLE.            
BECAUSE OF THE SYNOPTIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...A 10 TO 1 SNOWFALL               
RATIO WOULD BE APPROPRIATE...HOWEVER WITH THE SATURATED  SNOW GROWTH            
LAYER A FEW THOUSAND FEET DEEP AND PLENTY OF VERTICAL MOTION IN THAT            
LAYER...WILL USE A 15 TO 1 RATIO TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SNOWFALL.                  
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT IF SLIGHTLY MORE QPF OCCURS             
THAN EXPECTED.                                                                  
MONDAY...SHRTWV TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING            
MOST OF THE CWA BY 00Z. IN FACT...SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS              
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z AHEAD OF                 
TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NW U.S.. EXPECT THE BAND OF                       
FRONTOGENETIC SNOWFALL TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE             
SHRTWV TROUGH...AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT BEHIND IT. WITH                
850MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND -2C BY THE END OF THE                              
DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO HIT THE UPPER 30S/LOW                
40S.                                                                            
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS THE CWA              
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER THE NW MOVES TOWARDS THE             
PLAINS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE                
EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ADVECTION...MID/UPPER LEVEL             
SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP              
FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY 12Z...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS PROGGED             
OVER THE EASTERN CWA...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO SET UP IN THE WESTERN            
U.P.. THEREFORE THIS AREA COULD SEE RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS             
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES SLIGHTLY                  
EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.                
STILL WENT CLOSE TO COOP GUIDANCE...THOUGH...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF                
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.                                                       
TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH OF THE                
PLAINS STATES BY 00Z WED...SIMILAR TO THAT OF 00Z MON BUT DEEPER.               
GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A WEAK SHRTWV MAY MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING            
THE DAY. HOWEVER...RH PROFILES ARE VERY DRY...SO LIKELY THE MAIN                
IMPACT FROM THIS SHRTWV WILL BE FOR INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS.                 
ANOTHER SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN U.P. LATE IN THE              
DAY. THIS SHRTWV WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND               
MOISTURE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW THERE. AS FAR AS            
TEMPERATURES GO...WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...HAVE               
STAYED CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.                                                  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY               
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL                        
TROUGH...TAKING IT FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING TO THE OHIO                  
VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON                
FRIDAY. THE 12Z UKMET IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THE MOTION OF THIS                  
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...BUT GIVEN THE GOOD                       
AGREEMENT...THIS SPEED DIFFERENCE IS NOT A BIG ISSUE. AS FAR AS THE             
TROUGH\S IMPACTS ON THE CWA\S WEATHER...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND HEIGHT              
FALLS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN INTO THE            
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE               
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO             
ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR IS NOT THAT                          
SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE GFS (WHICH TYPICALLY HAS A COLD BIAS OUT IN              
THE EXTENDED) INDICATING 850MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -4C AT 12Z THU. SINCE             
LAKE SUPERIOR WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY AROUND 6C...NO LAKE EFFECT            
IS EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE                
NORTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY...WARMER ATLANTIC AIR WRAPS BACK TOWARDS                
UPPER MICHIGAN. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A MIX WITH RAIN AGAIN FOR               
THURSDAY ACROSS THE U.P....THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THURSDAY                 
NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO                 
BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH FAVORS FAST MOVING SHRTWVS TO                 
SLIDE THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. ONE OF THESE SHRTWVS THE GFS/ECMWF                
SHOW MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A              
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS                 
INDICATE THAT THE 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -8C BEHIND THE                
SHRTWV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN WARM            
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF             
LAKE EFFECT...BUT FOR NOW PREFER TO LEAVE SATURDAY DRY WITH THE                 
THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT...IF              
ANY.                                                                            
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED SHOULD REMAIN AT OR JUST SLIGHTLY             
ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN RELATIVELY MILD 850MB TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.              
LOOKING OUT BEYOND SATURDAY INTO THE WEEK AFTER...PATTERN LOOKS                 
NEARLY ZONAL WHICH FAVORS CONTINUED PACIFIC AIRMASSES. THEREFORE                
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB (SHORT TERM)                                                                
AJ (LONG TERM)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1256 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TOUGH CALL ON THE EXACT TIMING OF MVFR CLOUD DISSIPATION                        
TONIGHT...BUT VERY DRY AIR AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN                
OUT SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THEREFORE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO              
LIFT ABOVE 3K FEET BY MIDNIGHT...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS                      
BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.                              
THIS WILL ALL BE DRIVEN BY RIDGING THAT WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE                
TROUGHINESS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE                 
QUICKLY BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN STRONG                      
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRYING ATMOSPHERE. THE THINKING IS THAT THE WINDS              
WILL REMAIN UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT                      
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY AND WINDS GO                    
NEARLY CALM...WE MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
TIME AROUND SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO             
INCLUDE IN TAFS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1112 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
SURFACE OBS/RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL DEPICT A               
WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY MOVED EAST OF OUR               
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CLIMB.                  
LATEST RUC DATA INDICATES RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN. WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY SLOT POSITIONED ACROSS                    
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND A WEDGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE                      
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTING TO THE EAST ACROSS                  
LAKE MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS THIS WEDGE OF MOISTURE STEADILY              
DISSIPATING...SUPPORTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TO THIS SYSTEM.                   
OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT A FEW                  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...ALL                     
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RADAR COVERAGE AND                  
RETURNS SUPPORT A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH A BAND OF LIGHT                
DRIZZLE (AS SUPPORTED BY OBS) STRETCHING ACROSS PART OF THE CWA                 
WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A              
FEW DEGREES AT MOST SITES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SITES               
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30'S...TO THE LOW 40'S ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE FREEZING. MID                  
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME                   
TIME...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. SHALLOW MOIST                  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BUT LACK ENOUGH SUPPORT                
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.                                               
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT              
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS DEFORMATION              
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 657 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING               
REFLECTED IN TAFS...AND MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS              
OF LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN KDTW/KDET AND OF RAIN OR MIX AT KFNT/KMBS              
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EXTENT OF SHOWERS HAVING DEVELOPED IN                 
DRY SLOT. TAFS REFLECT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS               
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT                   
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH...AT              
KDTW/DET THIS AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT                      
KFNT/KMBS AS WEAK DEFORMATION SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG INVERSION                    
TONIGHT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CEILINGS.                           
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
SURFACE LOW AS OF 08Z HAD ALREADY REACHED CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WELL              
AHEAD OF PACE OF MOST 00Z RUNS AND CERTAINLY WELL AHEAD OF PACE                 
SHOWN BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO               
RETREAT AND REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST TODAY LEAVING BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW              
IN ITS WAKE...THEN A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT. AT 500 MB...A              
SHARPENING TROUGH STILL TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE            
SOUTH IN BASE OF TROUGH...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF MODELS...GIVEN RECENT                     
PERFORMANCE. WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                    
BAROCLINIC ZONE EASING ITS WAY EAST OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A              
RATHER PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND               
IT. MODELS ARE TENDING TO UNDERPLAY THIS DRY WEDGE...THOUGH MORE                
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP BACK INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND               
DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING RICH 925 MB            
MOISTURE UNTIL IT BEGINS TO EASE LATE TONIGHT.                                  
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME RESIDUAL...ALBEIT MAINLY WEAK...LOW TO MID               
LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT TODAY...WITH MORE IN WAY OF SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT.              
850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL MODEST TODAY AS WELL...ALONG            
WITH A BIT OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE/850 MB CONVERGENCE COUPLING. ALSO...            
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING MAINLY SOUTHEAST                       
TODAY...WHILE WEAK AREA OF DEFORMATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST MI TODAY.                                                             
IN LIGHT OF DRY SLOT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL MENTION ONLY               
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THEN...WITH BETTER                  
MOISTURE AND STILL SOME DYNAMICS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO NUMEROUS              
POPS EXCEPT SCATTERED IN SAGINAW VALLEY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
TYPE...AM STARTING OFF AS MIX IN NORTH AND LIQUID CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTH...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY            
UNFOLDS. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AN INCH OR LESS. WILL KEEP EVENING                  
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH ICE NUCLEATION MAY BECOME DIFFICULT             
EARLIER.                                                                        
AM LEAVING HEADLINES INTACT FOR MARINE AREAS. GFS IS STILL GOING FOR            
925 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE             
HURON.                                                                          
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
SAME METEOROLOGICAL THINKING APPLIES THIS MORNING FROM PREVIOUS                 
FORECASTS AS POTENT PACIFIC JET (ANALYZED NEAR 200KTS PER SATELLITE             
DERIVED INFO) WILL PLAQUE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS THIS UPCOMING            
WEEK.  STILL SEVERAL MODELS POINTING TOWARD A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO            
IMPACT THE REGION MID-WEEK BUT NO MAJOR ARCTIC INTRUSIONS EXPECTED.             
SUNDAY...                                                                       
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH             
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...SOME HINT OF LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE BUT THIS DOES SEEM SHALLOW AND THOUGHTS ARE TOWARD A MOSTLY            
SUNNY DAY.  WITH MINIMAL MIXING EXPECTED...STILL KEEP HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 41-46 DEGREES.                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                 
AS OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...PACIFIC SHORT             
WAVE COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS RACES TOWARD              
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE                
WESTERN LAKES OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND QUITE NARROW             
WHICH COMES INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY.  CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO               
INCREASE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE SO RADIATIONAL              
COOLING (AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING...NEAR MAV NUMBERS)                 
SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY BEFORE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE            
AREA OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...                                                      
FAST MOVING COOL FRONT...SHORT WAVE TROF AND ENTRANCE REGION OF                 
UPPER JET WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DPROG/DT OF THE MODEL             
FIELDS SUGGEST QPF WILL DECREASE WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND            
GULF ALL BUT SHUT OFF TO THIS SYSTEM.  THEREFORE POPS WILL BE                   
DECREASED ANOTHER 10% AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR              
THE CWA.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M59 HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF REMAINING DRY              
BEFORE NEXT SURFACE HIGH AND A DRY COLUMN OF AIR (850-500MB RH OF               
<=20%) MOVE IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                     
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MID WEEK FAVORS A WET PATTERN FOR THE GREAT             
LAKES ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN IFFY.  THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/18Z-DGEX               
SUGGEST POTENT PACIFIC JET WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS               
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY            
AS UPPER PATTERN BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE GREAT                 
LAKES.  THE LOCAL WRF-HEMI SUGGESTS A RATHER MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE            
TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS AN OUTLIER BUT IT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT                
FROM THE RECENTLY UPGRADED CANADIAN GLOBAL.  THE ECMWF IS NEARLY                
IDENTICAL TO THE 18Z-DGEX AND WHEN BLENDING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO            
THE LOCAL WRF-HEMI SUGGESTS A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION BUT UPPER               
PATTERN DOES AMPLIFY BUT LIKELY NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS.                   
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES DOES NOT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT             
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SHOWALTERS                    
DROPPING BACK TOWARD 0C AND WILL ADD THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.             
COOLER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW                  
SHOWERS.  AGAIN...NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WITH THE PACIFIC ZONAL              
INFLUENCE KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP TO OUR NORTH.                        
FRIDAY...                                                                       
IT SEEMS WE REMAIN WITHIN A REGION OF BAROCLINICITY WITH A NEAR                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS (MORE LIKE AN EL               
NINO PATTERN WITH LATEST SST ANALYSIS INDICATING EASTERN PACIFIC                
TEMPS A GOOD 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY).  REMNANTS OF MID WEEK              
SYSTEM LIFT NORTH WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE THERMAL PROFILE             
BUT SUNSHINE COULD BE AT A PREMIUM.  AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT IDEA              
OF PTSUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW              
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H
     UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.                                
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.         
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...SHULER                                                        
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1112 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SURFACE OBS/RUC ANALYSIS/SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ALL DEPICT A               
WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY MOVED EAST OF OUR               
AREA THIS MORNING AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CLIMB.                  
LATEST RUC DATA INDICATES RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID                
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVES NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN. WATER                 
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY SLOT POSITIONED ACROSS                    
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND A WEDGE OF MOISTURE ALONG THE                      
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY PIVOTING TO THE EAST ACROSS                  
LAKE MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR DEPICTS THIS WEDGE OF MOISTURE STEADILY              
DISSIPATING...SUPPORTING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TO THIS SYSTEM.                   
OUTSIDE OF A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AT A FEW                  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNRISE...ALL                     
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN. RADAR COVERAGE AND                  
RETURNS SUPPORT A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND WITH A BAND OF LIGHT                
DRIZZLE (AS SUPPORTED BY OBS) STRETCHING ACROSS PART OF THE CWA                 
WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEFORMATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A              
FEW DEGREES AT MOST SITES ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SITES               
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30'S...TO THE LOW 40'S ACROSS THE                    
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE FREEZING. MID                  
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME                   
TIME...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. SHALLOW MOIST                  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE BUT LACK ENOUGH SUPPORT                
FOR PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE.                                               
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT              
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS DEFORMATION              
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIER AIR TAKES OVER.                                   
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 657 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
LOTS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY MORNING               
REFLECTED IN TAFS...AND MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS              
OF LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN KDTW/KDET AND OF RAIN OR MIX AT KFNT/KMBS              
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING EXTENT OF SHOWERS HAVING DEVELOPED IN                 
DRY SLOT. TAFS REFLECT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS               
BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT                   
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH...AT              
KDTW/DET THIS AFTERNOON AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT                      
KFNT/KMBS AS WEAK DEFORMATION SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH STRONG INVERSION                    
TONIGHT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE CEILINGS.                           
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 405 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
SURFACE LOW AS OF 08Z HAD ALREADY REACHED CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WELL              
AHEAD OF PACE OF MOST 00Z RUNS AND CERTAINLY WELL AHEAD OF PACE                 
SHOWN BY MODELS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO               
RETREAT AND REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST TODAY LEAVING BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW              
IN ITS WAKE...THEN A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT. AT 500 MB...A              
SHARPENING TROUGH STILL TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS                   
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH MAIN VORTICITY ENERGY WILL BE WELL TO THE            
SOUTH IN BASE OF TROUGH...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN LATE                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF MODELS...GIVEN RECENT                     
PERFORMANCE. WATER VAPOR/SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW                    
BAROCLINIC ZONE EASING ITS WAY EAST OUT OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH A              
RATHER PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT SPREADING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BEHIND               
IT. MODELS ARE TENDING TO UNDERPLAY THIS DRY WEDGE...THOUGH MORE                
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO WRAP BACK INTO AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND               
DRY SLOT. MEANWHILE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING RICH 925 MB            
MOISTURE UNTIL IT BEGINS TO EASE LATE TONIGHT.                                  
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME RESIDUAL...ALBEIT MAINLY WEAK...LOW TO MID               
LEVEL OMEGA ASCENT TODAY...WITH MORE IN WAY OF SUBSIDENCE TONIGHT.              
850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL MODEST TODAY AS WELL...ALONG            
WITH A BIT OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE/850 MB CONVERGENCE COUPLING. ALSO...            
LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LINGERING MAINLY SOUTHEAST                       
TODAY...WHILE WEAK AREA OF DEFORMATION IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST MI TODAY.                                                             
IN LIGHT OF DRY SLOT AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL MENTION ONLY               
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. THEN...WITH BETTER                  
MOISTURE AND STILL SOME DYNAMICS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GO NUMEROUS              
POPS EXCEPT SCATTERED IN SAGINAW VALLEY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION                   
TYPE...AM STARTING OFF AS MIX IN NORTH AND LIQUID CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTH...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY            
UNFOLDS. SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AN INCH OR LESS. WILL KEEP EVENING                  
FLURRY MENTION FOR NOW...THOUGH ICE NUCLEATION MAY BECOME DIFFICULT             
EARLIER.                                                                        
AM LEAVING HEADLINES INTACT FOR MARINE AREAS. GFS IS STILL GOING FOR            
925 MB WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS TODAY IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN LAKE             
HURON.                                                                          
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                               
SAME METEOROLOGICAL THINKING APPLIES THIS MORNING FROM PREVIOUS                 
FORECASTS AS POTENT PACIFIC JET (ANALYZED NEAR 200KTS PER SATELLITE             
DERIVED INFO) WILL PLAQUE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS THIS UPCOMING            
WEEK.  STILL SEVERAL MODELS POINTING TOWARD A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO            
IMPACT THE REGION MID-WEEK BUT NO MAJOR ARCTIC INTRUSIONS EXPECTED.             
SUNDAY...                                                                       
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH             
VERY DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  HOWEVER...SOME HINT OF LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE BUT THIS DOES SEEM SHALLOW AND THOUGHTS ARE TOWARD A MOSTLY            
SUNNY DAY.  WITH MINIMAL MIXING EXPECTED...STILL KEEP HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN 41-46 DEGREES.                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT...                                                                 
AS OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING...PACIFIC SHORT             
WAVE COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS RACES TOWARD              
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL AID THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE                
WESTERN LAKES OVERNIGHT.  MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED AND QUITE NARROW             
WHICH COMES INTO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY.  CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO               
INCREASE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF MOISTURE SO RADIATIONAL              
COOLING (AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING...NEAR MAV NUMBERS)                 
SHOULD COMMENCE EARLY BEFORE SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE            
AREA OVERNIGHT.                                                                 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...                                                      
FAST MOVING COOL FRONT...SHORT WAVE TROF AND ENTRANCE REGION OF                 
UPPER JET WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  DPROG/DT OF THE MODEL             
FIELDS SUGGEST QPF WILL DECREASE WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND            
GULF ALL BUT SHUT OFF TO THIS SYSTEM.  THEREFORE POPS WILL BE                   
DECREASED ANOTHER 10% AND WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR              
THE CWA.  LOCATIONS SOUTH OF M59 HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF REMAINING DRY              
BEFORE NEXT SURFACE HIGH AND A DRY COLUMN OF AIR (850-500MB RH OF               
<=20%) MOVE IN THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.                                         
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                     
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE MID WEEK FAVORS A WET PATTERN FOR THE GREAT             
LAKES ALTHOUGH DETAILS REMAIN IFFY.  THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/18Z-DGEX               
SUGGEST POTENT PACIFIC JET WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC                 
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS               
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY            
AS UPPER PATTERN BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TOWARD THE GREAT                 
LAKES.  THE LOCAL WRF-HEMI SUGGESTS A RATHER MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE            
TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS AN OUTLIER BUT IT DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT                
FROM THE RECENTLY UPGRADED CANADIAN GLOBAL.  THE ECMWF IS NEARLY                
IDENTICAL TO THE 18Z-DGEX AND WHEN BLENDING THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO            
THE LOCAL WRF-HEMI SUGGESTS A WEAKER SURFACE REFLECTION BUT UPPER               
PATTERN DOES AMPLIFY BUT LIKELY NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GFS.                   
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE GREAT LAKES DOES NOT CHANGE IN THE CURRENT             
FORECAST WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.             
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SHOWALTERS                    
DROPPING BACK TOWARD 0C AND WILL ADD THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.             
COOLER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW                  
SHOWERS.  AGAIN...NO MAJOR ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WITH THE PACIFIC ZONAL              
INFLUENCE KEEPING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP TO OUR NORTH.                        
FRIDAY...                                                                       
IT SEEMS WE REMAIN WITHIN A REGION OF BAROCLINICITY WITH A NEAR                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS (MORE LIKE AN EL               
NINO PATTERN WITH LATEST SST ANALYSIS INDICATING EASTERN PACIFIC                
TEMPS A GOOD 1-3 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY).  REMNANTS OF MID WEEK              
SYSTEM LIFT NORTH WITH A SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE THERMAL PROFILE             
BUT SUNSHINE COULD BE AT A PREMIUM.  AT THIS TIME THE CURRENT IDEA              
OF PTSUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW              
NORMAL.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT H
     UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.                                                         
     GALE WARNING...LHZ422 UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.                                
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ422-LCZ460 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.         
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 1 AM SUNDAY.       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SHULER                                                                 
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
810 PM MST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...                                          
WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME                    
LIGHT RA/SN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST/SOUTH THIS EVENING. AIRMASS                 
COOLED QUICKLY BEHIND SFC FROPA EARLIER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING                 
FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW                  
ACCUMULATION IS NOTED AT RED LODGE AS OF 0230Z. PCPN IS HEAVIEST                
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN PER THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW.                 
LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST HAVE SEEN LITTLE MORE THAN                      
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. HAVE REDUCED EVENING              
POPS FROM BILLINGS NORTH/EAST TO JUST ISOLD...AND EVEN THIS IS                  
PROBABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS. HAVE               
RAISED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...WHERE THEY SHOULD SEE                
UP TO AN INCH OF QUICK SNOW FROM NYE TO RED LODGE.                              
THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM               
THE WEST...BUT WILL SUSTAIN HIGH ELEVATION POPS THRU 12Z AS                     
COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE. GFS/RUC SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE                     
PERSISTING THROUGH 12Z...ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS TEMPS              
ALOFT COOL. BIG HORNS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES IN UNSTABLE NW FLOW               
BUT WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF WAVE THEY SHOULD EASILY REMAIN                   
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD HERE.                      
ALREADY TWEAKED GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES COMING SHORTLY.                            
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...                           
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL               
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS INHERITED DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED                  
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY. AFTER THIS ROUND OF                      
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT                  
JET STREAK WILL COME ASHORE IN WASHINGTON STATE AND INDUCE                      
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. WARM                 
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AS THIS TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHIFT EAST WILL               
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND                 
WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...VERY FAST WESTERLY FLOW                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES               
IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES. AS                 
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN                
EASTERN IDAHO AND THE LEWISTOWN AREA ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE               
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS IN THE UPPER                 
YELLOWSTONE AND UPPER STILLWATER VALLEYS. SINCE THIS IS STILL                   
FOUR DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST...HAVE ONLY ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS UP               
IN THE GRIDS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR                
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS IN THOSE AREAS. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR                
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND THAT POINT IN THE FORECAST...KEEPING               
THE IDEA THAT THE FAST ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO                     
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAIN                      
AREAS...PARTICULARLY THE WEST FACING SLOPES.                                    
HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH                     
SATURDAY NIGHT. LARGEST INCREASE TO LOW TEMPERATURES WAS FOR                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS               
QUITE WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED GAP WIND AND FOOTHILLS                   
AREAS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS ZONAL                  
FLOW YIELDS TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW              
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CARPENTER                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PUSH SE                 
THROUGH SE MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY THROUGH 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS                 
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS E                 
AND S OF KBIL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THESE                    
AREAS. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE               
ROUTES SUN AND SUN EVENING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER          
THE BEARTOOTH AND ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS SUN EVENING. ARTHUR                        
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 030/045 028/049 031/043 027/047 035/052 032/051 031/050                     
    20/B    02/O    13/O    02/R    02/R    22/O    00/B                        
LVM 026/043 035/048 033/041 028/047 038/051 030/051 030/048                     
    30/N    04/R    33/O    00/N    03/R    22/O    00/B                        
HDN 029/046 026/050 028/043 027/048 036/054 029/052 029/052                     
    30/B    02/O    14/O    02/R    02/R    22/R    00/B                        
MLS 026/048 023/050 027/040 024/049 030/052 028/052 026/051                     
    20/B    03/O    14/O    20/B    02/R    20/B    00/B                        
4BQ 026/043 023/048 027/041 024/049 031/051 029/051 027/051                     
    20/B    03/O    34/O    20/B    00/B    20/B    00/B                        
BHK 026/045 022/050 027/038 022/046 028/050 024/048 023/049                     
    20/B    02/O    34/O    20/B    02/R    20/B    00/B                        
SHR 027/041 014/049 029/043 021/048 026/053 024/051 024/052                     
    60/B    02/O    34/O    20/B    00/B    22/O    00/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
951 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...COLD FRONT IS ADVANCING EAST ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A               
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIP               
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPWARD MOTION INCREASES WITH                     
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT                    
CURRENT SAT AND RADAR TRENDS WITH BULK OF PRECIP HOLDING OFF IN                 
WESTERN ZONES UNTIL AFT 06Z AND THEN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST               
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS ARE                     
HOLDING IN THE MID 60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S FAR EAST AND OUTER                   
BANKS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS APPEAR ON              
TRACK WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH                 
RAIN DEVELOPING.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD                      
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS PCPN ASCD WITH APPROACHING COLD                
FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST. OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT                
INDICATE CIGS IN THE 4K TO 5K FT RANGE WITH MINIMAL VSBY REDUCTION              
WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS DROP TO AROUND 1500 FT WITH MVFR VSBYS              
IN RAIN. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION              
LATE TONIGHT BUT OVERALL FEEL CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED               
AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE FRONT AND SCATTERED AT BEST. LOW LVL                  
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY TO HANG ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS                 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS NEAR DIAMOND BUOY INCREASING A BIT FASTER THAN                  
OTHER LOCATIONS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED MIXING ON THE WESTERN EDGE               
OF THE GULF STREAM WHERE SSTS ARE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. SEAS                  
HAVE RISEN TO 7 FT AT DIAMOND AS WELL...WELL ABOVE THE NEAR SHORE               
BUOYS THAT ARE REPORTING MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SOME CONVECTION IS                   
PRESENT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AND THE HIER                  
SEAS AT DIAMOND MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL. OVERALL THINK               
GFS IS STILL DOING A SLIGHTLY BETTER JOB WITH WINDS. RUC DOES NOT               
APPEAR TO INCREASE WINDS ENOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT IS CLOSER TO              
THE NAM BUT WITH LESSER SPEEDS. SIG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE                   
FRONT SHOULD INDUCE STRONGER WINDS AS PRES GRADIENT BEGINS TO                   
TIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS                 
AND GALES OVER CENTRAL WATERS STILL LOOKS GOOD. WILL BUMP UP SEAS               
CENTRAL WATERS MORE IN LINE WITH DIAMOND OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING.             
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR           
     AMZ135-150-158.                                                            
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130.              
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WINGENROTH                                                         
AVIATION...FAUCETTE                                                             
MARINE...FAUCETTE                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
947 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
THE COLD FRONT HAD COME EAST OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH THE                  
PIEDMONT TRIAD AREA AS OF 915 PM. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH                
(AIDED BY 130 METER 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT H5 OVER NASHVILLE TN)               
WAS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE TN VALLEY...                
AND WAS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED              
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY                
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM GSP TO CLT... THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF                
CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT. POP WILL BE NEAR 100 AND QPF BETWEEN 0.25 TO              
0.50 EXPECTED WITH LOCAL 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT.             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
THE LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN                  
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY OVER OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE PAST                  
HOUR. THE CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAD GREATLY DECREASED FROM THE LATE              
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER NW NC... MAINLY DUE TO THE LOSS                
OF THE REMAINING MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... THE GUST FRONT                 
HAS BEEN FORMIDABLE AS IT ROLLED THROUGH THE TRIAD REGION WITH                  
GUSTS TO 36 MPH REPORTED AT WINSTON- SALEM (827 PM)... AND 31 MPH               
AT GREENSBORO (905 PM). THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE                 
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THROUGH 06Z/12 AND THEN SLOW DOWN              
AS A SURFACE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT IN THE                    
VICINITY OF SOP TO RDU BETWEEN 06Z-09Z.                                         
02Z/12 NOVEMBER UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE STRONGEST UPPER                    
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT WAS LOCATED ON THE NOSE OF A 100                
KNOT 300 MB JET... OVER UPSTATE SC EXTENDING INTO THE SW PIEDMONT OF            
NC NEAR CLT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED COOLING CLOUD TOPS                  
OVER THIS SAME REGION AND RADAR INDICATED AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY               
APPROACHING THE SW PIEDMONT OF NC.                                              
AS THE MID AND UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED                  
AND CLOSES OFF AS IT COMES EAST OVER NC TONIGHT... CONDITIONS WILL              
BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD              
CENTRAL NC. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHICH MODEL SOLUTION                  
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK THE CUT OFF LOW WILL TAKE LATER TONIGHT               
AND SUNDAY... BUT THE LATEST RUC AND NEW 00Z/12 NAM SUPPORT THE                 
EARLIER THINKING OF A TRACK THAT WOULD BE ACROSS NC.                            
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND... THIS UPDATE WILL RAISE THE POP TO 100                 
ACROSS CENTRAL NC FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BECOME                 
WIDESPREAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC. THE               
00Z NAM SUPPORTS THE CURRENT TRENDS... AND IF THE TRACK AND                     
INTENSITY OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVES CORRECT LATER                    
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THERE WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTMENTS MADE LATER              
FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN AND CHILLY TEMPS SUNDAY.                                    
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 557 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006)                                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
AT 545 PM... THE COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED TO THE BLUE RIDGE HAVING               
PASSED JEFFERSON AND BOONE IN ASHE AND WATAUGA COUNTIES... AND                  
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT                 
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED                    
THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT WESTERN                  
NC... WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR GSP SC.. MOVING NE.                      
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST NOW BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR               
TRENDS. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION                 
BY MID EVENING (EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS THINKING... ACCOMPANIED BY A              
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS). WILL RAISE EVENING POP OVER THE             
WESTERN PIEDMONT TO 100 PERCENT. WILL ADD SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.              
WILL ALSO INDICATE A STRONG WIND SHIFT TO THE NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT             
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH.                                                        
LATER UPDATES WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AS THE                    
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES THE MID AND UPPER LOW                        
APPROACHING THE TN VALLEY IS GOING TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN               
THE NEXT FEW HOURS... AND CLOSE OFF OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN NC. POP                
WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED TO NEAR 100 EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.                    
QPF WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND WILL STRONGLY BE TIED TO              
EXACTLY WHERE THE CUT OFF FORMS. A DEEPER AND MORE SOUTHERN CUT                 
OFF WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER QPF OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                           
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 321 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH THEIR FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO                 
SUNDAY WITH ONE SET OF MODELS (INCLUDING THE NAM) DROPING THE 500               
MILLIBAR LOW NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER WHILE THE GFS AND                   
OTHERS MOVE THE LOW ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. I CAN FIND NO                    
MAJOR CLUES TO THE CORRECT SOLUTION AND AM RELATIVELY SATISFIED TO              
GO WITH A COMPROMISE.                                                           
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DROPS SOUTH...               
THE CURRENT THIN LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BLOSSOM OVER NORTH                      
CAROLINA INTO A LARGER BLOB TOWARD MIDNIGHT. RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO              
EXIT THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE AND LEAVE THE NORTHEAST PARTS IN THE                
AFTERNOON. IT IS CERTAINLY OPEN TO DEBATE THAT SOME RAINS MAY STILL             
BE OVER THE ROANOKE RIVER AFTER DARK... BUT WILL LEAVE SUNDAY                   
NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE              
INCH TOWARD VIRGINIA...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES FOR               
THUNDER LOOK BEST IN THE WEST AND EARLY IN THE EVENT...BUT LEADING              
COLD ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE MAY KNOCK THE LEGS OFF OF ANY                     
THUNDER THREAT BEFORE IT BEGINS.                                                
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FALLS FROM THIS EVENING TO SUNRISE SUNDAY ARE               
FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 60 METERS. NO HOPE OF CORRECTLY                  
NAILING DOWN TIMING AND INTENSITY. DID RISK INCREASING THE                      
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TO TEN DEGREES                
AND GRADIENT COULD BE A BIT STRONGER. FOUR TO SEVEN DEGREE DIURNAL              
RISE TO SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE TOO HIGH...ESPECIALLY NORTH.          
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME HERE WITH PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM                
FORECAST. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAINS AS EARLY AS               
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERHAPS THE BETTER BET               
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY                     
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...OTHERWISE NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM              
CLIMATOLOGY.                                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE                     
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. MAINLY               
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD                 
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION                
THIS EVENING AND TRACK EAST TONIGHT. BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 10                    
THOUSAND FEET WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR             
IN RAIN AND FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST... AND SPREAD EAST AFTER             
09Z. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM                
WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN VIRGINIA COAST AFTER 12Z                
WILL DELAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNTIL AFTER 13Z IN THE WEST... 15Z              
IN THE EAST... AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL             
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER 09Z ...AND TO THE NORTHWEST             
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                              
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM...BADGETT/MLM/STRICKLER                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
845 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS PLACES THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE              
NEAR THE NW CORNER OF ARKANSAS AND NE CORNER OF OKLAHOMA AT THIS                
HOUR. CONSEQUENTLY... TEMPERATURES IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST              
AREA HAVE FALLEN RAPIDLY TO NEAR FORECAST MINIMUMS. SEVERAL OTHER               
SITES FURTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE ALSO DROPPED A                 
LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH AND                 
WEST SHOULD HAVE TROUBLE MAKING IT INTO THE REGION WITH THE                     
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS                 
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS BASICALLY OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.                 
HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS FOR TEMP AND RH AND SENT ALL UPDATED                 
PRODUCTS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 240 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
A COLD NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING              
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE WELL DOWN             
INTO THE 30S...WITH NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS FALLING BELOW FREEZING.               
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING IN WESTERN AREAS BY MORNING...AS THE                  
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN                      
WESTERN ZONES FROM REALLY BOTTOMING OUT.                                        
LOOKS LIKE A FEW UNEVENTFUL DAYS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER               
WAVE BYPASSES THE AREA TO THE NORTH. A WEAK BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE                
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE               
TO WARRANT ANY POPS OVER THE AREA AND NO DRAMATIC TEMPS CHANGES                 
EXPECTED.  TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR                     
SEASONAL NORMS...THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT                  
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.                                                              
HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOW POPS ON TUESDAY AS MODELS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE            
A TROUGH THAT WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS OR JUST TO THE EAST                   
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN               
LINGERING LOW POPS IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE SYSTEM MOVES OFF                
TO THE EAST. USUAL TIMING/STRENGTH ISSUES...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO               
CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS JUST YET. MODELS DO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING                
TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION THROUGH...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OR                    
NORTHEAST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 15                                                    
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 6                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
852 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA...JUST NOW MVG                
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA. UPR TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH W                
INDIANA...WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN UPR LOW BECOMING CUT-OFF            
NEAR OH/E KY/WV REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. DECENT AREA OF RAIN                 
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVNG SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER OUR AREA AS THIS               
UPR LOW DVLPS.                                                                  
ALL IN ALL...TS POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW DUE TO ONLY WEAK                        
INSTABILITY. MID LVL LAPSE RATES NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...ONLY                 
ABOUT 6 DEGREES C. LI'S ARE NEAR ZERO TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. 0-6KM               
SHEAR HOWEVER IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS THAT COULD                      
PRODUCE HAIL (ABOUT 50KTS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS) AND IN FACT                
HAIL WAS REPORTED IN WATAUGA COUNTY IN NC...RIGHT ALONG THE NC/W                
VA BORDER. THEREFORE...ANY ISOLD TS THAT WE DO SEE MAY PRODUCE                  
SOME HAIL PROBABLY AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.                               
BY FAR...THE BIGGER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY                       
RAIN...AND HOW LONG THE RAIN HANGS AROUND WILL DETERMINE ANY TYPE OF            
FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODEL DIFFERENCES...THE GFS TAKES THE UPR LOW TO            
THE EASTERN BORDER OF VA/NC BY MIDDAY SUNDAY (18Z) WHILE THE NAM                
TAKES THE LOW INTO E-CNTRL NC BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH WE'RE ONLY TALKING            
ABOUT A 100 MILE DIFFERENCE...THIS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTS WHERE THE              
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WOULD BE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. GOING WITH A            
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AS WELL AS LOOKING AT HPC'S PRECIP                      
GRAPHICS...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE VA              
PIEDMONT AND CNTRL VA. AMOUNTS COULD BE UP TO THREE INCHES IN SOME              
LOCATIONS...WITH AN AVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE                
THIS WOULDN'T PROMPT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...WILL ISSUE AN SPS             
SHORTLY TO OUTLINE THIS THREAT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPSTREAM                 
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.                                                   
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY LATE THIS                   
EVNG...AND ALSO TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN WORDING OVERNIGHT AND EARLY               
TOMORROW. REST OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 256 PM EST SAT NOV 11 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                          
SPLENDID WX FOR TDA...INCLDG RCRD-BRKG TEMPS (AT LEAST AT SBY SO                
FAR)...WRM/SSWLY FLO PREVAILS AS SFC HI PRES OFFSHR WKNS.                       
MNWHL...STRNG CDFNT ENTERING THE MTNS ERY THIS AFTN. WHL TEMPS                  
ARE IN THE 70S IN MANY SPOTS E OF THE MTNS (IN VA/NC)...W OF MTNS               
(OH/KY/TN)...RDGS ONLY IN THE LWR/MID 40S. PCPN IS CURRENTLY                    
ALG/RIGHT BEHIND THE FNT...W/ NOTHING SO FAR E OF IT IN WRMSCTR.                
XPCTG THAT TO LRGLY CONT THROUGH THIS EVE AS FNT MVS ONTO THE                   
HIGHLANDS IN WRN VA/NC.                                                         
JUST AS NICE/WRM AS TDA HAS BEEN...SUN WL BE QUITE THE OPPOSITE.                
MDLS CONTG TO DEPICT VIGOROUS UPR LVL LO PRES DVLPMNT LT TNGT/ERY               
SUN ACRS SW VA/NW NC AS THE STRNG SFC CDFNT PUSHES TO THE CSTL PLN              
(LT TNGT) AND OFFSHR (SUN MORNING). XPCTG WDSPRD AREA OF RA TO                  
DVLP (ACRS WRN/CNTRL VA) AS UPR LVL SYS BCMS CLSD OFF.                          
IMPRESSIVE/DP LYR UVM AND MSTR SUGG PTNTL FOR HVY RA ACRS MUCH OF               
FA LT TNGT THROUGH SUN MORNING AS CONVEYOR BELT INTENSIFIES W/ THE              
UPR LVL DVLPG JUST WSW OF FA. AS UPR LVL LO PRES TRACKS ACRS SRN                
VA SUN AFTN...MOD SFC LO PRES FORMS INVOF VA CAPES...LIKELY KPG RA              
ACRS MUCH OF THE FA THRUT THE DAY SUN. AS W/ SYS ERYR THIS WK                   
(THAT PASSED NRLY OVRHD ACRS FA)...CANNOT RULE OUT PSBL T FM LT                 
TNGT THRU SUN. AVG QPF ONCE AGN LOOKS TO BE 1 TO 1.5 IN (HV HAD                 
QUITE A FEW OF THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN PAST CPL MONTHS - WL THAT              
CONT INTO THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON?).                                         
TEMPS RMNG MILD TNGT (LOWS IN LWR/MID 50S)...THEN                               
NOTICEABLY/SHARPLY COOLER FOR SUN (AND RDGS WL LIKELY BE AT HIEST               
LVLS ERY IN THE DAY...B4 HOLDING STDY OR EVEN FALLING DURG                      
MIDDAY/AFTN HRS IN MANY SPOTS. BY THE END OF THE DAY...MANY LCTNS               
AWAY FM THE CST WL PRBLY HV TEMPS IN THE 40S.                                   
STM SYS SLO TO PULL AWAY FM THE RGN SUN NGT THROUGH MON...KPG                   
PLNTY OF CLDS AND CHC POPS SUN NGT ALL AREAS...THEN LMTD TO THE                 
ERN SHR BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON. XPCTG SLO DRYING/CLRG ACRS THE FA BY                
MON AFTN.                                                                       
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                    
WK RIDGING MVS ACRS RGN MON NGT THROUGH ERY WED...B4 NEXT VIGOROUS              
TROUGH ALOFT AMPLIFIES W OF THE MTNS (WED AFTN) AND PROGRESSES                  
EWD TO THE E CST (THU). HOLDING OFF ON NEXT CHC OF PCPN UNTIL LT                
WED NGT AND THU W/ MOD CDFNTL PASSAGE. STILL LOOKS TO DRY OUT FRI               
INTO NEXT WKND.                                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR THRU THE EVENG...WITH DETERIORATING CONDS WELL AFTER MIDNGT.                
BRING PRECIP INTO TAF SITES 09/11Z FROM  W TO E. UPR LOW WILL BRING             
TEMPO MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS/LOW CLDS ON SUNDAY...MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR SOME            
THUNDER...BUT NOT IN TAFS AT THIS PT.                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
APPROACH OF SLOW MVG UPPER LOW TONIGHT MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING                 
MARINE FCST...ALONG WITH LARGE DIFFS BETWN GFS AND NAM/WRF. WINDS               
HAVE STRUGGLED TO MIX DOWN TODAY OVER THE COOL WATERS...GNRLY JUST              
10-15 KTS THIS AFTN...EXPECT TO COME UP A BIT MORE THIS EVENG BUT               
WILL KEEP JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT FOR NOW. BY ERLY SUN MRNG WINDS                
LIGHTEN UP AS SFC LOW BECOMES CNTRD OVERHD...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH OF A S             
TO SSE SURGE ALONG THE COAST FOR SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT. BY MID              
TO LATE DAY SUNDAY BAY LOOKS TO SEE A NLY SURGE OF SMALL CRAFT WHILE            
CSTL WTRS THIS SURGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER SUN NGT/ERLY MON. TAKING             
A GFS/NAM/WRF CONSENSUS LEADS TO ALL ZONES INTO SMALL CRAFT FROM                
MIDDAY SUNDAY THRU MIDDAY MONDAY. QUIETER CONDS MON NGT/TUE/TUE NGT.            
NXT SYSTM MAKING THU OUT TO BE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT EVENT.                       
CLIMATE...                                                                      
SBY SET A RCRD HI TEMP AT 75 DEGS F ARND 1241 PM THIS AFTN (PREV                
RCRD WAS 74/2002)...WATCHING OTR SPOTS...ESP RIC FOR THE REST OF                
THE LT AFTN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654-656-658 FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 1              
     PM MONDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633 FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 1 PM               
     MONDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MCNATT                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE            
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT            
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY                  
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.                                                          
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING                
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE            
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES             
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT            
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE               
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING            
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC            
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE                   
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST               
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL             
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF             
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY               
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF                    
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH             
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER                
MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                                                
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY                    
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING             
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID             
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR            
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW                  
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED                
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS             
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W                    
INBETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE                   
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO            
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL                
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.                                                             
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING                  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE               
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE            
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD                
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE                 
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL              
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN              
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO             
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE                
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%               
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH             
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT                 
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.              
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE                
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN              
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER            
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE            
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM              
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN                  
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)             
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE             
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED                   
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.                     
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY                
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB              
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER            
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.              
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE                     
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL            
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST                
NEXT SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN                  
TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS HIGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX OVER LAKE HURON            
WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO                 
BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ALTHOUGH                
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...PREDOMINATE MVFR                   
CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH            
12Z...THEN THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE REST OF               
THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND LOW LEVEL DRY               
AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...                                   
             NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON                    
             UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY.                                                 
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
429 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.NEAR TERM (TODAY)...                                                           
AT 8Z WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED 500MB LOW HAD                   
FINALLY CUTOFF OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH AN INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMA   
OVER WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA (40 VORTICITY UNITS ACCORDING TO THE                
RUC...IMPRESSIVE)...AND AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA OF LOW                      
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WITH 2.4 MB                     
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH                    
CAROLINA. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND                
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE 500 MB LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM              
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRESSURE FALLS NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL NORTH             
CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD LEAD TO COASTAL LOW FORMATION BETWEEN               
CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE LOOKOUT NC THIS MORNING. THIS DATA BASED                 
FORECAST IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE 0Z/6Z NAM/0Z NGM AND TO A              
LESSER EXTENT THE 0Z ECMWF AND 3Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN (BOTH ARE A                
LITTLE NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH THEIR COASTAL LOW AT 12Z THIS                
MORNING). THE 0Z GFS DEVELOPS THIS LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA              
COAST THIS MORNING...AS DO THE 0Z UKMET AND CANADIAN (BUT A TAD                 
FURTHER SW).                                                                    
BASED ON THE DATA SUPPORTING THE NAM/NGM AND TO A                               
LARGE DEGREE ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS...HAVE USED THE                 
NAM FOR TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (ALSO NOTING THAT IT DID              
A VERY GOOD JOB CAPTURING THE BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED CROSS THE EAST FORK OF LONG ISLAND/FAR                 
SOUTHEAST CT OVERNIGHT). BASED ON THIS...AND THE LATEST RADAR                   
TRENDS SHOWING NO EASTWARD PROGRESS (ACTUALLY SLIGHT WESTWARD                   
DRIFT) TO RAIN SHIELD OVER CENTRAL PA/NY...EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO         
HOLD OF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS                  
TO START THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS BY LATE MORNING               
(HIGHEST WEST)...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON.               
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN                      
AREAS...NOTING THAT WE ALREADY HAVE HAD THUNDER OVERNIGHT...AND ALL             
MODELS SHOW SUB ZERO SHOALWATER INDICES (SUPPORTING ELEVATED                    
CONVECTION)...AND LIFTED INDICES NEAR ZERO THIS MORNING.                        
DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST TO EAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS                           
AFTERNOON...WILL BRING IN A SUFFICIENT MARINE LAYER TO PREVENT                  
DEEP CONVECTION (AS SHOWN BY ALL MODELS INCREASING THE SHOALWATER               
INDEX TO ABOVE 0 AND MOST ABOVE 2 THIS AFTERNOON).                              
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO ALL BUT ORANGE/WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES               
ALREADY HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60...SO USED WARMEST AVAILABLE                 
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY RISE 3-5                   
DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS BEFORE ONSET OF STEADIER                            
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...SO IN THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE               
TEMPERATURES PEEKING AROUND MIDDAY...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING              
DURING THE AFTERNOON.                                                           
HAVE QUITE A LARGE NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES            
OR LESS...SO HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE ZONES THIS MORNING. AS                      
SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW SETS UP AND STRENGTHENS BY THIS AFTERNOON                
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THE FOG SHOULD MIX OUT...BUT THIS SHOULD                  
PROMOTE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY OVER LONG                   
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT) WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                      
WHILE I INITIALLY PREFER THE NAM WITH STORM TRACK...OVER TIME IT                
BECOMES THE SLOWEST IN LIFTING THE STORM TO THE NORTH...AND HAS                 
BEEN IN THE PAST FEW RUNS SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING ITS SOLUTION AND                
SHIFTING IT FURTHER WEST. THIS IS STILL TRUE WITH THE 6Z                        
NAM...WHICH IS FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THAN THE 0Z NAM AT 0Z                     
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST MODEL LIFTING NORTH...AND                
IS AN OUTLIER IN THIS...SO HAVE DISREGARDED IT. THE 0Z                          
UKMET/ECMWF/3Z SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE A REASONABLE SOLUTION IN                  
TERMS OF SPEED (THOUGH THE ECMWF IS FURTHER EAST THAN THE OTHER                 
2...ALSO FURTHER EAST THAN THE 6Z NAM)...SO FOLLOWED THE 12Z                    
UKMET/3Z SREF FOR THE LOW TRACK BY TUESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY                   
EXPECT THE LOW TO BE CENTERED SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT TUESDAY                    
MORNING...THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS/JUST TO THE EAST OF FAR EASTERN                
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                    
THIS LOW TRACK MADE NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THE              
MAIN CHANGE IS THE SHIFT OF THE AXIS OF QPF TO THE EAST. WHILE                  
EXACT DETAILS ARE IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION...THIS RESULTS IN                    
DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON                 
AND EVENING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AS THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW CROSSES THE AREA...THEN EXPECT A LULL FROM               
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE COASTAL LOW CONSOLIDATES                
AND LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE                    
DURING THIS TIME...AS IT WILL BE MAINLY PREDOMINATED BY DRIZZLE.                
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS COASTAL LOW               
GETS BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRAWS NEAR. FOCUS LIKELY POPS TUESDAY                 
MORNING (IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES) OVER EASTERN                
AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PASSES WITH CHANCE POPS EAST...THEN                
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (REFLECTING UNCERTAINTY IN                        
TIMING/EXACT TRACK OF LOW)...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY                    
EVENING (EXCEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FAR EAST (CLOSEST TO LOW)...THEN                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...ALSO REFLECTING               
UNCERTAINTY IN APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM.                                         
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED A                   
BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.                                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW                
SETS UP OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE                
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY                   
WEDNESDAY EVENING.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                
0Z ECMWF/GFS IN REASONABLE DEGREE OF AGREEMENT OVER MEDIUM                      
RANGE...REFLECTING THE SET UP OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US BY                
THE END OF THIS WEEK...THE FORECAST IN GENERAL REFLECTS THIS...SO               
COUPLED WITH MORE PRESSING SHORT TERM CONCERNS...MADE NO CHANGES                
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 06Z MON. SOME SPOTS WILL            
SEE MVFR OR LIFR/VLIFR AT TIMES...BUT THESE WILL TEND TO BE THE                 
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. SATURATED LOW LEVELS HAS LED TO A               
GOOD BIT OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THE FOG              
TO BECOME LESS PREVALENT LATER THIS MORNING AS NE FLOW KICKS                    
IN...BUT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. RAIN WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE             
DAY AS WELL...LIKELY BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN             
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH                   
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY. STEADY RAIN WILL               
GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE SITUATION LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS             
LITTLE HOPE FOR IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z MON. THE              
NEXT TAF PACKAGE WILL LIKELY REFLECT IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS                    
CONTINUING THROUGH THAT TIME.                                                   
LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL BECOME E THEN NE THIS MORNING. SPEEDS WILL RANGE            
FROM 6-12 KT. NE FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT INTO THE 10-15 KT             
RANGE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WIND FCST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A                 
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF LOW         
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.              
BASICALLY THE GFS IS FASTEST TO MOVE THE SFC LOW NORTHWARD INTO NEW             
ENGLAND...THEN NAM IS THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST OFFSHORE...AND THE               
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN. THIS RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF                  
SPREAD FOR THE MODEL WIND FCSTS. MOSTLY WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM...BUT             
ADJUSTED DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS SOMEWHAT TO FIT BETTER WITH THE OTHER                
MODELS AND SURROUNDING OFFICES. RESULT IS NE FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY...           
THEN INCREASING TONIGHT AND REMAINING RATHER BRISK ON MON. THE                  
PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD REACHING 6 TO 9 FT MON              
AND MON NIGHT. FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO NORTH ON TUE AS THE LOW                  
PASSES BY...LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL              
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE. BASED ON THE ABOVE FCST...NO CHANGES ARE                 
NEEDED TO THE EXISTING SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES...WHICH RUNS THROUGH             
TUE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
LONG PERIOD OF BRISK NE FLOW WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP IN WESTERN             
LONG ISLAND...AS WELL AS IN NY HARBOR AND THE BACK BAYS OF THE LONG             
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE. FORTUNATELY ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RELATIVELY               
LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND 2.5 TO 3 FOOT DEPARTURES WILL             
BE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS. CURRENT                   
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN BELOW THOSE LEVELS               
AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND ANY COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE ISOLATED AND              
MINOR AT WORST. GREATEST POSSIBILITY FOR ANY FLOODING THAT MIGHT                
OCCUR WOULD LIKELY BE DURING THE MON AFTERNOON AND LATE MON NIGHT               
HIGH TIDE CYCLES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING OVER THE NEXT                
COUPLE OF DAYS.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
EXPECTED STORM TRACK SHIFTS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE NEXT              
48 TO 60 HOURS EASTWARD OVER CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. THIS IS               
THE AREA OVER WHICH ALL MODELS CURRENTLY AGREE WILL RECEIVE 1 TO                
1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. TO THE WEST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 0.75                
TO 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AREA. THIS IS MUCH               
LESS (BY A FACTOR OF 75 TO 100 PERCENT) THAN CURRENT 12-24 HOUR                 
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER                    
HUDSON VALLEY...SO I HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH THERE (IN             
COLLABORATION WITH MT HOLLY). THE EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER CONNECTICUT AND        
LONG ISLAND IS ALSO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BELOW FLASH FLOOD                         
GUIDANCE...SO THERE WAS NO NEED (IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING              
OFFICES) TO PUT THOSE AREAS IN A WATCH.                                         
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ350-353-355 UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY.            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...MALOIT                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...CNJ                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
230 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
LOW POP PCPN CHANCES/PHASE AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST                     
CHALLENGES.                                                                     
OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS             
GFS FOR DETAILS AS ITS DOING A LITTLE BETTER WITH NEAR TERM SURFACE             
FEATURES.                                                                       
REGION TO REMAIN IN BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS MID LEVEL SHEAR                
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS HIGH PLAINS. SO FAR NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN PCPN               
DEPARTMENT AS RUC SHOWING HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WITH              
MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS. WATER VAPOR INDICATING PLUME OF DEEPER                   
LAYERED RH LIFTING NE WHICH WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM FAR SE ND INTO NW            
MN DURING DAY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO LOWER THIS AREA                
DURING DAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS FROM SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO             
NW MN. PHASE WILL BE TRICKY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY PCPN WHICH              
DOES FORM. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BLO FREEZING HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE            
A WEAK WARM FRONT ALONG A MOT-JMS-ATY LINE WHICH MAY LIFT                       
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AS SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL WATCH            
TEMPERATURE TRENDS BEFORE DETERMINING PHASE HOWEVER ANY PCPN LIKELY             
TO BE FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT. FOR AVIATION PURPOSES ZONE OF LOWER CIGS            
BEHIND COLD FRONT WHICH HAS JUST ENTERED NW ND DROPPING SE AT 25KTS             
AND MAY REACH FAR NW FA AROUND 12Z. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS FOR 12Z              
TAFS AS MODELS DO BRING IN HIGHER 925MB RH VALUES DURING DAY.                   
THERMAL RIDGE OVER FA THIS MORNING SAGS WITH COLD ADVECTION DURING              
DAY. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND BEING TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH             
TEMPERATURES LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL STAY ON LOW SIDE OF NUMERICAL               
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
BOUNDARY LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER EXITING EASTERN FA THIS EVENING. WILL            
HOLD OFF ON INSERTING POPS BUT DAY CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR                    
BOUNDARY PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND            
RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW MONDAY AM. ATLEAST PARTIAL                 
CLOUDS AND LACK OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP MINS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR.               
COLUMN DOES DRY OUT DURING THE DAY MONDAY FOR POTENTIAL SOLAR.                  
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND S-SW SURFACE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY SEE             
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE.                                                 
850MB WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED OVER WESTERN FA AT 06Z TUESDAY WHICH             
SHIFTS INTO VALLEY AREA BY 12Z. PHASE AGAIN WILL BE TRICKY HOWEVER              
FOR NOW WILL NOT JOSTLE PHASES IN MARGINAL SITUATION.                           
REGION THEN BECOMES SPLIT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE AREAS AND ENERGY                 
REFOCUSES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING               
WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE TUESDAY HOWEVER DOESNT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF AN               
EVENT HERE.                                                                     
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK WITH HIGH              
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY AND NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY                
THURSDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND SO NO SIGNIFICANT                   
CHANGES PLANNED IN LATER PERIODS.                                               
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ENTERING NW ND NOT SHOWING ANY                 
SIGNS OF SLOWING AND LIKE PAST EVENTS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS FA              
FROM NW-SE DURING DAY.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
1029 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...STRONG 900MB INVERSION STILL HANGING ON OVER INDIANA THIS             
MORNING.  H85 RIDGE MAX IS STILL SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST WHICH IS                  
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LACK OF CLEARING.  RUC SHOWING PLENTY OF                    
MOISTURE BELOW 900MB AND UNTIL THE RIDGE MAX PASSES TO OUR EAST                 
SUBSIDENCE WONT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE THE INVERSION TO THE                  
GROUND.  THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO FILL IN WHICH               
WILL ALSO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING.  WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION             
BELOW 900MB WOULD NOT EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP UNTIL THE 18Z-21Z               
TIMEFRAME.  BECAUSE OF THIS WILL SHAVE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF                   
DAYTIME HIGHS.                                                                  
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 121200Z TAF ISSUANCE. HI PRES CENTERED               
OVR IL AT 11Z. MVFR CLOUD LINE IS LOCATED ALONG INDIANA ILLINOIS                
BORDER. SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INVERSION PERSISTING UNTIL LATE                   
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD KEEP LOW CIGS AROUND UNTIL                 
THEN. 95 PERCENT RH FROM THE NAM AT 925 MB MATCHES UP WELL WITH                 
CURRENT LOW CIGS AND AGREES WITH SOUNDINGS ON TIMING OF VFR.                    
INVERSION SHUD MIX OUT AT ALL SITES BY 17Z AND MIX CIGS TO VFR.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO WORK WITH TODAY WILL BE               
THE CLOUDS. THIS MORNING SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS            
SHOW A LINGERING AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA.               
THESE CLOUDS ARE BEING TRAPPED OVER THE AREA BY AN INVERSION. ONCE              
THE INVERSION BREAKS MID TO LATE MORNING THE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT.            
THE NEXT CLOUD PROBLEM IS AN AREA OF CI THAT IS OVER ILLINOIS MOVING            
EAST. ONLY THE GFS HAS THIS MOVING INTO INDIANA. WITH ITS PRESENT               
STEADY MOVEMENT THIS LOOKS GOOD. THE PROBLEM WILL BE WHEN IT DOES               
MOVE IN HOW DENSE WILL IT BE. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS THIN                 
ENOUGH TO GO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING WILL SLOW              
THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE SOME ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.             
SO WILL GO TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE HIGHS.                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO INDIANA DURING THE DAY.               
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER INDIANA              
TONIGHT. WILL GO AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO THE MOISTURE. WITH               
THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER.                          
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIANA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK            
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A WARM UP FOR              
PART OF THE DAY. WILL GO NEAR GUIDANCE FORECAST. DUE TO LACK OF                 
MOISTURE WILL NOT MENTION ANY RAIN WITH THIS FRONT.                             
&&                                                                              
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                         
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SALLY                                                                  
AVIATION...CP                                                                   
PUBLIC...HAINES                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
855 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF                      
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE FCST AREA.  LOCAL RAOBS AND RUC40                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS NEAR 900 MB...AND IT             
IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA TODAY...CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD             
TIME EXITING THE REGION AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERHEAD.  AS             
A RESULT...THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE                
LATE AUTUMN SUNSHINE IN ORDER TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK.  WILL UPDATE             
THE ZONES/GRIDS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LONGER THROUGH THE             
DAY...BUT EVENTUALLY HOPING THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.               
WILL ALSO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME DUE TO THE LINGERING                
CLOUD COVER.                                                                    
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MI TO SRN IL AND MOVG                
SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH                 
INVERSION BASED AROUND 925MB TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LINGER             
OVER THE AREA PAST DAYBREAK WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E DURING             
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN OH BY 00Z MON. LOWERED MAXES A              
FEW DEGS FM PREVIOUS FCST IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER LATEST MAV/MET               
FCSTS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN WK MIXING AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS            
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVE AND             
WINDS LIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. A SHRTWV                
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE MS             
VLY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WITH SOME                   
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HWVR,               
SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA               
CONTG SE MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO MOS SEEM                    
REASONABLE GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A             
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT FORCING WILL            
DECREASE WITH TIME AND WHAT MSTR EXISTS WITH IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY              
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE PULLED BY DAY SHIFT AND WILL CONTINUE              
WITH THIS THINKING AS AT BEST A SPRINKLE OR 2 MAY OCCUR.                        
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SYSTEM ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE             
TUES NGT/WEDS TIME FRAME. WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS COMING OUT OF               
00Z RUNS BY 12Z WEDS...WITH ECMWF FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS N IL...TO               
NAM OVER CNTRL IL...GFS OVER W TENNESSEE...AND UKMET OVER N                     
LOUISIANA. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE MANY IMPLICATIONS ON AMOUNT OF PRECIP             
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS HAVING               
THE LOW TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA WOULD SUGGEST MINIMAL                   
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT INCREASING CHCS FOR MEASURABLE QPF. CURRENTLY             
HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES EVE THEN HIGH CHC TUES NGT INTO WEDS.             
WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY ON WEDS BUT IF FURTHER SOUTH                  
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...MAIN PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE TILL WEDS NGT/THURS SO            
WILL LEAVE THINGS ALONE. ALL PRECIP THROUGH THURS SHOULD BE IN THE              
LIQUID FORM...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THE BACK SIDE              
OF THE SYSTEM. BY 00Z FRI MODELS DO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER                   
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM NE LK HURON TO LAKE ERIE OR             
NW OHIO. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE                
THURS AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BE PULLED                
NORTH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES JUST AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ANOTHER             
FRONT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FRI TIME            
FRAME. ENOUGH MODEL ISSUES THAT FAR OUT TO PRECLUDE PRECIP MENTION.             
IF SCENARIO WORKED OUT WOULD BE SHOT AT SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVING            
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. PLENTY OF TIME TO            
MONITOR SO WILL KEEP THURS NGT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR             
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.                                                           
AVIATION...                                                                     
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MI TO SE IL ATTM. LARGE               
STRATO CU DECK WAS LOCATED EAST OF THE SFC RIDGE. A COUPLE OF LARGE             
HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS DECK OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXPECT                
THESE WILL EXPAND INTO NRN INDIANA BY 18Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD              
SHOULD BE GENERALLY CLOUD FREE OTHER THAN SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY             
AND PSBLY A CIRROSTRATUS DECK MOVG INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE             
IN THE PERIOD AS A WKNG SHRTWV/CDFNT APPROACHES. DECENT RADIATIONAL             
COOLING TONIGHT MAY CAUSE TEMPS TO DROP BELOW CROSSOVER TEMP,                   
HOWEVER MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT FOG AND DOUBT                    
MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH FOR STRATUS SO CONTD VFR.                                  
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                                
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...TAYLOR                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED                  
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR                
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT               
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN              
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF                   
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT                  
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE                    
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO                     
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH                   
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING                   
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.                     
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW                 
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL                     
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE                      
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE                
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE                
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                   
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND                 
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.                 
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH                
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE            
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT            
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY                  
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.                                                          
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING                
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE            
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES             
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT            
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE               
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING            
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC            
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE                   
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST               
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL             
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF             
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY               
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF                    
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH             
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER                
MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                                                
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY                    
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING             
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID             
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.                                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                               
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR            
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW                  
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED                
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS             
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W                    
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE                  
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO            
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL                
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.                                                             
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING                  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE               
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE            
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD                
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE                 
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL              
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN              
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO             
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE                
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%               
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH             
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT                 
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.              
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE                
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN              
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER            
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE            
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM              
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN                  
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)             
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE             
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED                   
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.                     
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY                
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB              
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER            
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.              
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE                     
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL            
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST                
NEXT SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...                                   
     NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...                         
     UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY.                                                         
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION AND UPDATE...DWD                                                       
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1035 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPPER LOW ABOUT WHERE IT WAS EXPECTED TO BE BASED ON PREVIOUS                   
MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING...OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. SAID                
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. SURFACE               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE                
CLOUDINESS HUGGING THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS...AND SOME OF THE                 
INTERIOR MOUNTAINS BUT MOST OF THE NON-TERRAIN AREAS MOSTLY CLEAR.              
MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MOUNTAINS REVEALED A LIGHT SNOW FELL              
IN THE VERY LATE HOURS OVERNIGHT FOR THE VERY HIGHER                            
ELEVATIONS...WITH ONE INCH REPORTED FROM BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOUNT                 
MITCHELL...GRANDFATHER AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN IN                 
SOUTHEAST BUNCOMBE COUNTY. ALMOST NO SNOW REPORTED FROM THE                     
VALLEYS. HOWEVER...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL                 
THE SATURATED LAYER IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE 85H TEMPERATURES                   
SHOULD BE RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL                 
SLOW EROSION OF THE ANCHORED CLOUD DECK HAS ALREADY BEGUN...BUT                 
THE LOW CLOUDS MAY HANG ON FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO...ANY                  
LINGERING SNOW AT THIS HOUR SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY              
AFTERNOON. NEITHER RUC NOR 06Z NAM/WRF PRODUCES MUCH MORE                       
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE TENNESSEE BORDER AREAS. WE WILL                
HOLD ON TO ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHERN                               
MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
MOUNTAIN WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH SO FAR; KAVL                 
JUST HAD A WIND GUST TO 43 MPH. THE BETTER MIXING HAS ALSO                      
RESULTED IN STRONG GUSTS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT; KCLT                   
RECENTLY GUSTED TO 31 MPH. WITH TIME...THE WINDS THROUGH THE                    
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD WANE...AND ANY RESIDUAL COLD ADVECTION                
WILL BE REPLACED BY WARM ADVECTION. FOR NOW...WILL NOT PLAN ANY                 
CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND ADVISORY/LAKE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR                
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BASED ON CHANGES WE MADE TO THE                             
FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE TO CARVE OUT              
SOME OF TEH LARGER ZONE GROUPINGS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY BUT WILL                
HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTENSION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND MONITOR                 
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES LATER.                                                    
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN STEADILY THIS MORNING...BUT LOW LEVEL                   
THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORTS NO MORE THAN LOWER 60S FOR THE                        
CWFA...AND NORTHEAST CWFA WILL BE IN THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE               
UPPER LOW FOR A WHILE YET. MOUNTAINS MAY SEE MINIMAL MERCURY                    
CLIMBS TODAY. WILL LOWER MAXES CWFA-WIDE...TO MID/UPPER 50S                     
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND HOLD ON TO LOWER 60S ONLY FOR THE                  
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWFA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 255 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                     
PCPN CHANCES THIS MORNING WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST THE NC MTNS...AND             
MAINLY THE WESTERN SLOPES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS A PERIOD OF BRISK            
UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LLVL MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW AND THE                  
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER...MARGINALLY COLD...PERHAPS -2C            
AT BEST. SO...A MIX OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY                
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING WITH PROGRESSIVE             
LLVL DRYING SLATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON PALTRY MAGNITUDE OF             
EXPECTED WINTER WX THREAT AND RECENT RECORD WARMTH...LITTLE IF ANY              
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                                           
WITHIN THE SUBSIDING AIRMASS TODAY...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.                 
40-50 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACRS FAVORED AREAS OF THE NC MTNS WITH             
CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN SOME DEGREE OF WINDY AND BREEZY                      
ELSEWHERE. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UP TONIGHT...SO A MIXED AIRMASS            
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS S/WV RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS             
A TOP THE CWFA.                                                                 
SHORT WAVE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES                
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU INTRODUCING NEAR                
ZONAL FLOW AND MORE WEAK SHORT WAVES FOR TUESDAY. STRONG WAVES DIG              
A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE                 
OUR FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY.                                                 
AT THE SURFACE...CWFA WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH                    
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS             
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT LOW LEVELS VERY DRY. THE DRY             
LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TUESDAY...BUT COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS                
STREAMING EASTWARD SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES               
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM BRINGS PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE              
GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME PRECIP                
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SIMILAR TO NAM...BUT PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW            
MANY DRY MEMBERS. MEMBERS SHOWING PRECIP...EXCEPT FOR ONE...HAVE                
ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THEREFORE             
HAVE DECIDED TO SLOW PRECIP WITH ONLY CHC TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE                
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
HIGHS RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH RIDGING ON MONDAY. LOWS                
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT DECENT RADIATIONAL                      
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT A LITTLE LOWER               
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CIRRUS. LOWS TUESDAY             
NIGHT NEAR NORMAL.                                                              
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                       
GFS AND CANADIAN SLOWING SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A               
DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY...SO WILL                  
LEAVE POP AS IS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS                     
SYSTEM. GFS SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF FORCING WITH HIGH SHEAR. FORECAST              
INSTABILITY QUITE LOW OVER OUR CWFA...BUT THIS FITS THE PATTERN                 
FOR A FALL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE. THAT SAID...STILL TOO EARLY TO               
FOR BANDWAGON JUMPING. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS                 
THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH               
THURSDAY MORNING AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN TO THE AREA FROM THE                      
SOUTHWEST. A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROF                
WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND A DEEP THERMAL TROF WILL SLOWLY               
TRANSIT THE CWFA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
SCENARIO WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL              
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
LINGERING STRATOCU ACRS THE PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR DURING              
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...WITH UPVALLEY CLOUDS AT KAVL LINGERING A LITTLE            
LONGER...PERHAPS UNTIL 12 UTC. OTHERWISE...SOLE CONCERN FOR THE 06              
UTC TAF PACKAGE WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL BE SEEN PRETTY                
MUCH ALL DAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KTS ACRS LOWER                      
ELEVATIONS AND TO ABOUT 30 AT KAVL...DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING.               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                       
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-034-048>050-052>055-059-063>066-501-              
     503-505-507-509 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                                         
  ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-058-062 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                   
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                           
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ002-003 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...44                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
950 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU EASTERN              
NC THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING NEGATIVE TILT PULLING LIGHT/MOD RAIN               
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ATTM. EXPECT AS THE SYSTEM WORKS               
NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRY AIR SLOWLY CUTOFF -RA ON THE SW SIDE             
AS MID LEVEL AXIS OF CONVERGENCE PIVOTS MORE INTO THE NERN ZONES                
WHERE WILL KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING. ELSW ABRUPT DROPOFF IN RH                
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER NW DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE                
BEFORE GETTING BACK INTO MORE UPSLOPISH MOISTURE WESTERN SLOPES.                
HOWEVER GIVEN FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BEST MOISTURE OUT WITH              
COASTAL LOW APPEARS EVEN UPSLOPE MIX OF PRECIP LIKELY VERY                      
LIGHT/SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT ESPCLY              
LATEST WRF/NMM AND RUC WHICH HAVE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THUS PLAN              
TO CUT POPS TO CHANCE WESTERN SLOPES AND GO WITH LITTLE OR NO                   
PRECIP FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW                   
ADVISORY LEVELS SO FAR WITH WAVE SLOW TO MOVE NE/DEEPEN AND RATHER              
WEAK 85H JET. EXPECT ONCE ITS GETS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MIXING                
INCREASES WILL SEE RIDGES PICK UP ALTHO FORECAST PRES RISES NOT                 
ALL THAT GREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTRW SOME SMALL ADJUSTS TO TEMPS              
SINCE APPEARS ONLY SLIGHT RISES AT BEST MOST AREAS THRU THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 647 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
BLF WILL START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG               
LOW LEVEL WINS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL                 
IMPROVE GRADULLY WITH CEILINGS AT BLF BECOMING MVFR BY THE END OF               
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP VFR                
CLOUDS IN OVER LYH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AT ROA AND DAN                  
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.                 
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. AS THE                 
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF                
THE MOUNTAINS.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 221 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
DECIDED TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF               
NC NORTHWARD THRU GRAYSON...CARROL AND FLOYD COUNTIES. COLD FRONT               
CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST TO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW               
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC AND LIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND                     
TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS               
EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE              
FAR EAST TODAY AND EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST. MOST OF PCPN              
WILL BE LIQUID BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST                   
ELEVATION. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY            
WIND COMPONENT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID.                          
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST THEN TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND              
MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING...THEN             
START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE               
APPROACHING AREA. THE Q-VECTOR FORCING AND DEFORMATION AREA STAY                
JUST EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL               
HOLD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON. WENT WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WHICH KEEPS THE              
PIEDMONT CLOUDY ALL DAY AND COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MORE             
SUN IN THE MORNING.                                                             
COLD AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MODERATES THE                   
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL AABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.            
SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS               
NOT THAT GOOD AND WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR AND VERY              
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WILL KEEP JUST LIGHT ANOUMTS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN              
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRIGINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.                                   
THE NEXT DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE LOW LEVELS WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL            
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS MOVE              
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING                    
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE GOOD DYNAMICS AND UPPER                 
DIFFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL SUPPORT RAIN SO NO CHANGE NEEDED TO            
THE FORECAST..EXCEPT WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS A BIT.                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...                
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY                
PUSH OF WIND ALOFT GIVEN COLD ADVECTION. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW             
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WESTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUD DECK (MVFR/IFR) IN            
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...WHILE IN THE EAST DOWNSLOPE            
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR                     
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TODAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP               
BAND AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF NEARBY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE                  
POSSIBLE ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ACRS THE                
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS              
PREVAILING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ015>017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                            
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ001-002-018 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                        
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1230 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE IS HOW FAST PESKY MVFR               
STRATOCUMULUS DECK WILL ERODE.  STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS NEARLY STUCK             
ACRS THE REGION AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SFC THROUGH 850            
MB WAS PROVIDING FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME THROUGH THE LAYER.                
AS A RESULT...ONLY DAYTIME SUNSHINE WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR ON                   
DISSIPATING THE DECK.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS                     
INDICATING THAT THIS INDEED WAS OCCURRING ACRS THE WEST.  WILL ONLY             
EMPLOY A SCATTERED DECK AT KSBN WITH TAF ISSUANCE.  FARTHER                     
EAST...THE EROSION PROCESS HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER.  THEREFORE...WILL              
HAVE TO FCST A BKN MVFR DECK AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THROUGH LATE                  
AFTN.                                                                           
FOR TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST.  A              
WEAK COLD FRONT ACRS THE PLAINS THIS AFTN WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN                
GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY AFTN.  AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES...MID              
AND HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF                      
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE FCST AREA.  LOCAL RAOBS AND RUC40                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE LAYER IS NEAR 900 MB...AND IT             
IS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION.  WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH                    
PRESSURE FCST TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA TODAY...CLOUDS WILL HAVE A HARD             
TIME EXITING THE REGION AS WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVERHEAD.  AS             
A RESULT...THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON THE                
LATE AUTUMN SUNSHINE IN ORDER TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK.  WILL UPDATE             
THE ZONES/GRIDS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LONGER THROUGH THE             
DAY...BUT EVENTUALLY HOPING THAT SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE.               
WILL ALSO TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME DUE TO THE LINGERING                
CLOUD COVER.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NRN MI TO SRN IL AND MOVG                
SLOWLY EAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH                 
INVERSION BASED AROUND 925MB TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LINGER             
OVER THE AREA PAST DAYBREAK WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING FROM W-E DURING             
THE DAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO WRN OH BY 00Z MON. LOWERED MAXES A              
FEW DEGS FM PREVIOUS FCST IN AGREEMENT WITH COOLER LATEST MAV/MET               
FCSTS WHICH SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN WK MIXING AND LINGERING LOW CLOUDS            
AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVE AND             
WINDS LIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA. A SHRTWV                
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE TO THE MS             
VLY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WITH SOME                   
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HWVR,               
SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA               
CONTG SE MOST OF THE NIGHT. MINS AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO MOS SEEM                    
REASONABLE GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION.                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                        
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A             
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT FORCING WILL            
DECREASE WITH TIME AND WHAT MSTR EXISTS WITH IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY              
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS WERE PULLED BY DAY SHIFT AND WILL CONTINUE              
WITH THIS THINKING AS AT BEST A SPRINKLE OR 2 MAY OCCUR.                        
THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO SYSTEM ADVERTISED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME IN THE             
TUES NGT/WEDS TIME FRAME. WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS COMING OUT OF               
00Z RUNS BY 12Z WEDS...WITH ECMWF FURTHEST NORTH ACROSS N IL...TO               
NAM OVER CNTRL IL...GFS OVER W TENNESSEE...AND UKMET OVER N                     
LOUISIANA. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE MANY IMPLICATIONS ON AMOUNT OF PRECIP             
AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS HAVING               
THE LOW TRACK OVER OR SOUTH OF THE AREA WOULD SUGGEST MINIMAL                   
THUNDER CHANCES...BUT INCREASING CHCS FOR MEASURABLE QPF. CURRENTLY             
HAVE LOW CHC POPS IN FOR TUES EVE THEN HIGH CHC TUES NGT INTO WEDS.             
WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE TO LIKELY ON WEDS BUT IF FURTHER SOUTH                  
SOLUTIONS VERIFY...MAIN PRECIP MAY NOT ARRIVE TILL WEDS NGT/THURS SO            
WILL LEAVE THINGS ALONE. ALL PRECIP THROUGH THURS SHOULD BE IN THE              
LIQUID FORM...WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THE BACK SIDE              
OF THE SYSTEM. BY 00Z FRI MODELS DO COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER                   
AGREEMENT ON THE SFC LOW SOMEWHERE FROM NE LK HURON TO LAKE ERIE OR             
NW OHIO. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE                
THURS AND ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BE PULLED                
NORTH ENDING PRECIP CHANCES JUST AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. ANOTHER             
FRONT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FRI TIME            
FRAME. ENOUGH MODEL ISSUES THAT FAR OUT TO PRECLUDE PRECIP MENTION.             
IF SCENARIO WORKED OUT WOULD BE SHOT AT SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ARRIVING            
WITH THIS FRONT...BUT NOT SO SURE THIS WILL OCCUR. PLENTY OF TIME TO            
MONITOR SO WILL KEEP THURS NGT THROUGH SATURDAY DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR             
OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                                       
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR                                                             
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
305 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES FOR                
PRECIP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.                  
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT 12Z              
HAS PROGRESSED INTO COLORADO, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS                
THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF UVV, AND                   
LIGHT ECHOES HAVE SPREAD ACROSS OUR RADAR SCOPE IN THE LAST FEW                 
HOURS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE STILL GREATER                  
THAN 20 DEGREES AT THE SFC IN MOST LOCATIONS, AND THE 850MB OBS                 
FROM THIS MORNING SHOW SIMILAR PATHETIC MOISTURE. MOST OF THE                   
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN IN THE MID LEVELS AND LITTLE IF ANY IS REACHING               
THE GROUND. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLING OFF TONIGHT THOUGH, AND RUC                 
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS                     
GETTING ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR SOMETHING TO REACH THE                
GROUND. WILL KEEP SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LIGHT RAIN                   
UNTIL MIDNIGHT, WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND SFC FRONT SHOULD BE PAST               
US.                                                                             
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO BREAK UP LATER TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS                
MOVES EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SETS IN. WITH THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS,                   
DIMINISHING WINDS, AND LOW DEWPOINTS, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP                  
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THE LEE SFC TROUGH SHOULD                   
RAPIDLY RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MODELS HAVE              
STRONG RH AT HIGH LEVELS THOUGH, SO SOME CIRRUS AGAIN LOOKS                     
PROBABLE. HIGHS IN THE 50S CONTINUE TO SEEM REASONABLE, SO ONLY                 
MADE MINOR TWEAKS. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING              
TEMPS FAIRLY MIXED AND A BIT WARMER THAN TONIGHT. WARMING SHOULD                
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RETURNING INTO THE LOWER TO              
MID TEENS C. CONTINUED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE              
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY                     
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE                  
WESTERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
WILL AGAIN BE A FACTOR, SO CONTINUED TO KEEP VERY LOW POPS OF 10-               
15 FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW.                                               
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD IS THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM            
A DEEPENING MID-WEEK SYSTEM.  BASED ON EXPECTED FORCING FROM THE                
TROPICS AND RESULTING AMPLIFICATION DOWNSTREAM...THE SYSTEM THAT                
CURRENTLY IS IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD DIG INTO THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER, EVERYTHING WILL LIKELY BE              
TOO FAR EAST OF MY CWA TO OFFER MUCH HOPE FOR PCPN.  WIND AND                   
BRIEFLY COLDER TEMPS WILL BE IN THE OFFING THOUGH.  THEN A QUICK                
WARMUP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN              
IN RESPONSE TO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE                
WEST COAST.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  27  55  36  60 /  20   0   0  10                                           
GCK  26  54  33  61 /  20   0   0  10                                           
EHA  26  57  35  65 /  20   0   0  10                                           
LBL  25  57  33  65 /  20   0   0  10                                           
HYS  28  55  37  57 /  30   0   0  10                                           
P28  33  58  40  62 /  20   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN26/07                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
254 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA            
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO SURFACE LOW NEAR KDHT. RADARS                
PICKING UP ON SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS            
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP HAS BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER              
NEW MEXICO WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.              
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP ON MOISTURE CHANNEL FROM THE             
BAJA OF CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON             
QPF FOR TONIGHT WITH THE RUC KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY BUT                    
FOCUSING ON NORTHERN BORDER THROUGH 06Z. GFS BROADER WITH                       
PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. MORNING              
SOUNDINGS WERE VERY DRY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IT WILL                
TAKE A FEW HOURS TO SATURATE THE AIRMASS FOR PRECIPITATION. LIFT                
WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH UPPER TROUGH                 
MOVING THROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH AROUND 09Z. HAVE EXTENDED                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 09Z. CLOUDS               
WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD               
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.                                     
FOR MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY                     
AFTERNOON WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.              
ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID 50S.                    
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE                 
DISAGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF H5 PATTERN AND THE AFFECTS ON THE                  
SURFACE FEATURES. GFS IS STILL MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH                      
DEVELOPMENT OF H5 TROUGH. WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED                       
STRONGER...A WEAKER VERSION OF THE GFS IS STILL PREFERRED. AS UPPER             
FEATURE DIGS IN...SURFACE BOUNDARY/LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE                
CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE TOP CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE              
MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS            
THE NORTHEAST CWA...IN CLOSER VICINITY TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A              
QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE WEDS NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING CANNOT              
BE RULED OUT...BUT STILL KEPT LIQUID PRECIP AS STILL PLENTY OF                  
DOUBT ON COLD AIR TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN                  
END BY EARLY WEDS MORNING. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS ON                 
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH GOOD WAA.                     
OFFSETTING THE WAA SOMEWHAT WILL BE  SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUD COVER.               
BY COMPARISON...STRONG CAA BEHIND SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS ON                
WEDS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.                                                     
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP H5 LOW LIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY                
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA. FLOW ALOFT WILL INITIALLY              
RETURN TO ZONAL BEFORE RIDGING STARTS TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND            
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO              
LOOK DRY BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK SLOW TO REBOUND AS FLOW ALOFT WILL               
STAY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...SO EXPECT                  
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.                                      
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1249 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CLOUDS TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER TODAY BEFORE FINALLY                     
SCATTERING OUT. THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH SUBSIDENCE               
INVERSION REFUSES TO RELENT...BUT STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL              
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS INTO                 
THE EVENING HOURS. THEN VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CLOUDS FINALLY                  
SCOUR OUT. CIRROSTRATUS WILL THEN MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF               
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1145 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                           
UPDATE...                                                                       
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE RIDGE AXIS                     
OVERHEAD. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT 925MB IS                
VERY SHALLOW...AND LATEST MODEL DATA INSISTS RAPID EROSION OF THIS              
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING                 
TREND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE               
WE COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE...BUT WE DO STILL EXPECT                  
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE                 
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ABOUT 3                             
DEGREES. BUT DO HOWEVER STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR               
ADVECTION TO ALLOW MIXING UP TO 925MB...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40'S.                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED                  
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR                
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT               
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN              
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF                   
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT                  
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE                    
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO                     
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH                   
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING                   
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.                     
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW                 
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL                     
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE                      
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE                
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE                
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                   
UPDATE...                                                                       
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND                 
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.                 
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH                
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                     
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE            
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT            
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY                  
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.                                                          
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING                
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE            
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES             
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT            
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE               
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING            
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC            
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE                   
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST               
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL             
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF             
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY               
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF                    
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH             
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER                
MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                                                
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY                    
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING             
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID             
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.                                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                               
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR            
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW                  
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED                
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS             
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W                    
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE                  
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO            
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL                
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.                                                             
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING                  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE               
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE            
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD                
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE                 
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL              
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN              
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO             
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE                
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%               
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH             
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT                 
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.              
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE                
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN              
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER            
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE            
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM              
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN                  
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)             
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE             
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED                   
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.                     
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY                
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB              
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER            
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.              
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE                     
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL            
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST                
NEXT SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN T
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...JDS                                                           
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1145 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST DESPITE RIDGE AXIS                     
OVERHEAD. SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE MOISTURE TRAPPED AT 925MB IS                
VERY SHALLOW...AND LATEST MODEL DATA INSISTS RAPID EROSION OF THIS              
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND                  
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WILL GO AHEAD AND SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING                 
TREND BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL LIKELY BE AFTER SUNSET BEFORE               
WE COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THIS MOISTURE...BUT WE DO STILL EXPECT                  
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE RIDGE                 
AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST. ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ABOUT 3                             
DEGREES. BUT DO HOWEVER STILL EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR               
ADVECTION TO ALLOW MIXING UP TO 925MB...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40'S.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 700 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE WEAK BUT PERSISTENT BANDING OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES DETECTED                  
COMING OFF OF SAGINAW BAY AND ALSO CLIPPING AREAS PRIMARILY NEAR                
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT HAS OVERALL WEAKENED BUT               
IS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGERY. HARDER TO EXPLAIN              
IS THE DEGREE OF CLEARING LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT OVER PARTS OF                   
SOUTHEAST MI. BELIEVE THAT THE THINNING/CLEARING IS RELATED AT                  
LEAST IN PART TO RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE CONVERGENCE                    
PLUMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. THIS MAY ALSO                     
EXPLAIN WHY SOME AREAS ARE TENDING TO FILL BACK IN AGAIN WITH                   
CLOUDS AS THE LAKE EFFECT/CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. THIS WEAKENING                   
TREND IS STILL SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GFS/NAM AND LATEST RUC.                     
SO...FOR THE TAFS...THE ONLY ISSUE IS IN GETTING RID OF THE LOW                 
CLOUDS. MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS DO LOOK TO WIDEN THE LOW LEVEL                     
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ENOUGH TO SUGGEST LOSS OF THE                      
OCCASIONAL MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BY MID DAY...SO HAVE WRITTEN THE                
TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...NO CEILINGS...DRY AND VFR AS RIDGE                
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA.                                   
UPDATE...                                                                       
RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING FROM ZONES AND                 
TO TWEAK FORECAST TODAY MAINLY FOR SKY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.                 
UNEXPECTED DEGREE AND PERSISTENCE OF THINNING/CLEARING OVER MUCH                
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.                     
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 358 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AS FOR THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. SURFACE            
RIDGE TO PASS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AT            
500 MB...MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY TO RETREAT EAST             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
EXCEPT AS NOTED BELOW...OVERALL DESCENT SEEN IN OMEGA FIELDS TODAY              
INTO TONIGHT...WITH QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO INDICATING MOSTLY                  
DIVERGENCE/SUBSIDENCE.                                                          
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. INCREASING                
CIRRUS...THOUGH...LIKELY TO BE SEEN MAINLY LATE TONIGHT BEHIND RIDGE            
ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS AT 925 MB...EXPECTED TO DIMINISH                 
TODAY.                                                                          
THE EXCEPTION TO NO WEATHER IS THE OVERNIGHT SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES             
SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGELY RELATED TO LAKE EFFECT            
FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DELTA TS INTO THE               
LOWER TEENS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT SHOULD LESSEN STEADILY THIS MORNING            
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM BEHIND THE BRIEF THERMAL TROUGH. NAM/RUC            
AND GFS SHOW GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...TENDING TO MAXIMIZE                   
AROUND 06Z...ALSO ON THE WANE THIS MORNING. NAM ALSO SHOWS MODEST               
950 MB OMEGA LIFT...MAINLY IN THE THUMB...WANING THIS MORNING. WILL             
CARRY MENTION OF SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES INTO THE MORNING FOR MOST OF             
THE AREA...THEN RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD KILL OFF ANY               
MORE POSSIBILITY OF THIS TRACE PRECIPITATION. PERSISTENCE OF                    
SPRINKLES...AS OPPOSED TO FLURRIES...SEEMS RELATED TO SHALLOW DEPTH             
OF MOISTURE AND THUS VERY POOR ICE NUCLEATION POTENTIAL...AS PER                
MODEL SOUNDINGS.                                                                
AS FOR CLOUD COVER TODAY...MOST MODELS INDICATE LESSENING BY                    
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SO INDICATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING             
SOME THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD AID             
IN CLOUD COVER DECREASE.                                                        
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                               
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENT STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION FOR            
MID WEEK...HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER FLOW                  
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. SATELLITE DERIVED                
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS OF 03Z WERE AVERAGING AROUND 120KTS             
WITH A DEVELOPING JET STREAK APPROACHING 150KTS EAST OF 150W                    
IN BETWEEN 40-50N.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE                  
PACIFIC JET ORIENTATION AND GENERAL STRENGTH AS THE ECMWF APPEARS TO            
HAVE PICKED UP THE JET STREAK EARLIER THAN THE OTHER OPERATIONAL                
GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FEATURE(S) WILL BE OUR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEK.                                                             
BEGINNING WITH MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PROGRESSING                  
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE               
FOUR CORNERS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE            
AND SURFACE HIGH PRECEDING IT SLIDES FURTHER EAST.  WHILE A GOOD                
AERIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE                 
INITIALLY...DECREASING THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ACROSS            
THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL              
LIFT INTO CANADA AND REDUCE THE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE CWA.  IN              
FACT...HARD TO FIND A MODEL THAT PRINTS ANY QPF ACROSS THE CWA.  DO             
NOT FEEL COMPELLED TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY AND WILL RETAIN THE                
CURRENT FORECAST WITH 20% POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8-MILE WITH 30%               
POPS AROUND THE TRI CITIES.  THEN A BRIEF RESPITE MONDAY NIGHT INTO             
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS             
THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER HIGH             
AS OBSERVED IN THE GFS/NAM/WRF-HEMI SOUNDINGS HENCE THE PERCENT                 
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.              
POTENT PACIFIC JET COMES ASHORE AND DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE THE                
FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.  DEPENDING ON HOW THIS PATTERN              
UNFOLDS ACROSS THE CONUS...TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST UPPER            
PATTERN QUICKLY BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE            
ADVANCES NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  CROSS SECTIONS FROM              
THE GFS SHOW A RATHER POTENT PETTERSSEN 2-D FGEN LAYER BETWEEN                  
850-700MB WITH AN INCREASED SLANTWISE INSTABILITY (INCLUDING DEPTH)             
JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER AS SUGGESTED IN THE LOWERING EPV/S ACROSS THE             
CWA.  COULD SEE A BAND(S) OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THIS WILL NEED TO MONITORED                   
CLOSELY AS PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH.                     
LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY                
WITH A SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.  850MB              
TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER            
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES TOWARD A RIDGE ACROSS THE              
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.              
THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE                     
COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.  WILL            
GO LOWER THAN MEX NUMBERS AND ADD POPS FOR SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST                
NEXT SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN T
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JDS                                                                    
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1210 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...SURFACE LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD              
FRONT ARE LIFTING NEWD OFF THE NRN OBX LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE               
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A WIDE AREA OF WRAP AROUND RAINFALL                
IS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.                    
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS                
HAVE INCREASED UP TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AS STRONG CAA HAS              
COMMENCED. THE LOW PRES WILL SLOWLY LIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH               
THE WRAP AROUND RAINFALL SLOWLY ENDING ACROSS THE SERN PORTION OF               
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRES WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST OF THE               
VA CAPES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BECOME CUTOFF ALLOWING              
FOR WRAP AROUND RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN NC THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE               
ZONES AND GRIDS TO CAPTURE CURRENT PCPN AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WILL                   
PREVAIL THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE                  
TONIGHT AND MON.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SIGNIFICANT UPDATE THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW TRACKED FARTHER            
S THAN FCST AND SW WINDS NEVER REACHED GALE FORCE. RUC HAD BEST                 
HANDLE ON SFC LOW AND WINDS 12-15Z AND LEANED TO IT FOR UPDATE                  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NOW EXPECT GALES (MAINLY IN GUSTS) TO               
SPREAD OVER WATERS FROM S TO N THIS AFTN AS SFC LOW GRADUALLY MOVES             
NE AND CAA KICKS IN BEHIND IT. EXTENDED GALES TO ALL WATERS (EXCEPT             
SCA FOR SOUNDS) AND IN TIME TO 06Z TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SEAS FOR                   
CURRENT BUOY OBS OF 6-9 FT...WW3 IS UNDERDONE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ130-135.             
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.                 
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ150.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY                                                            
AVIATION...MERRELL                                                              
MARINE...MERRELL                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
100 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN CLEAR SKY AREAS... AND COOLER              
IN CLOUDY REGIONS. SUNNY SKIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND                    
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH CLOUDY SKIES SURROUNDING. CURRENTLY                 
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ALONG HALLOCK-GRAND FORKS-OAKES LINE AND                    
MOVING EAST. SKY COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOLLOWING THIS                   
LINE. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE               
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
CHALLENGES WERE THE TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER CHANGES AND                       
CORRESPONDING TEMPERATURES.                                                     
RUC IS HANDLING CURRENT CONDITIONS THE BEST... PARTICULARLY THE                 
SKY COVER AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM SURFACE                
TEMPERATURES WERE NOT HOLDING TRUE FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. CLOUD              
COVER FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN THAN FOR LATER                 
HOURS. GFS AND HPC BOTH SHOW SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE                 
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA BUT CLEARING CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT                  
THIS. TOOK OUT AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
STEINBRUCKNER/GODON                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1235 PM EST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SE COMBO WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WESTERN SLOPES WILL              
KEEP RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR/MVFR SE WVA SITES TO VFR/OCNL                 
ELSWHERE INTO THIS EVENING. SPOTTY -RA MAY OCCUR AT LYH/DAN WITH                
SPORADIC -RA/-SN BLF BUT OVERALL EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF REDUCTIONS                
IN VSBY. HOWEVER GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO LATE THIS                   
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN              
SITES. SYSTEM EXITS THE COAST OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME DRYING TO                 
TAKE PLACE ESPCLY EAST WHILE EXPECTING LOWER CEILINGS TO FILL BACK              
IN SE WVA WHERE MVFR/IFR LIKELY FOR THE MOST PART. RESIDUAL CLOUDS              
SHOULD FINALLY BREAK ON MONDAY ALTHO LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AT                 
TIMES EARLY WITH WITH LOW LEVEL RH HANGING ACROSS THE EAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 950 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NE THRU EASTERN              
NC THIS MORNING WITH ONGOING NEGATIVE TILT PULLING LIGHT/MOD RAIN               
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT ATTM. EXPECT AS THE SYSTEM WORKS               
NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE DRY AIR SLOWLY CUTOFF -RA ON THE SW SIDE             
AS MID LEVEL AXIS OF CONVERGENCE PIVOTS MORE INTO THE NERN ZONES                
WHERE WILL KEEP CAT/LIKELY POPS GOING. ELSW ABRUPT DROPOFF IN RH                
LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE PER NW DOWNSLOPE/SUBSIDENCE                
BEFORE GETTING BACK INTO MORE UPSLOPISH MOISTURE WESTERN SLOPES.                
HOWEVER GIVEN FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHERLY AND BEST MOISTURE OUT WITH              
COASTAL LOW APPEARS EVEN UPSLOPE MIX OF PRECIP LIKELY VERY                      
LIGHT/SPOTTY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEN IN MOST MODEL OUTPUT ESPCLY              
LATEST WRF/NMM AND RUC WHICH HAVE VERY LIMITED COVERAGE. THUS PLAN              
TO CUT POPS TO CHANCE WESTERN SLOPES AND GO WITH LITTLE OR NO                   
PRECIP FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY SOUTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN BELOW                   
ADVISORY LEVELS SO FAR WITH WAVE SLOW TO MOVE NE/DEEPEN AND RATHER              
WEAK 85H JET. EXPECT ONCE ITS GETS A BIT FARTHER EAST AND MIXING                
INCREASES WILL SEE RIDGES PICK UP ALTHO FORECAST PRES RISES NOT                 
ALL THAT GREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTRW SOME SMALL ADJUSTS TO TEMPS              
SINCE APPEARS ONLY SLIGHT RISES AT BEST MOST AREAS THRU THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 647 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
BLF WILL START OUT WITH IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE TO STRONG               
LOW LEVEL WINS PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS WILL                 
IMPROVE GRADULLY WITH CEILINGS AT BLF BECOMING MVFR BY THE END OF               
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP VFR                
CLOUDS IN OVER LYH THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS AT ROA AND DAN                  
WILL BECOME SCATTERED AS THE DRY SLOT ADVANCES INTO THE REGION.                 
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. AS THE                 
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF                
THE MOUNTAINS.                                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 221 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
DECIDED TO KEEP WIND ADVISORY UP TODAY FOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF               
NC NORTHWARD THRU GRAYSON...CARROL AND FLOYD COUNTIES. COLD FRONT               
CONTINUES ITS MARCH EAST TO THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CLOSED LOW               
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN VA/NC AND LIFTS TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND                     
TONIGHT. BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS               
EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND LOW MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE              
FAR EAST TODAY AND EXPECT UPSLOPE CLOUDS IN THE WEST. MOST OF PCPN              
WILL BE LIQUID BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST                   
ELEVATION. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND MORE NORTHERLY            
WIND COMPONENT. PLAYED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAV GUID.                          
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                         
CLOSED LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST THEN TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND              
MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AROUND THE LOW THIS EVENING...THEN             
START TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. SURFACE            
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE               
APPROACHING AREA. THE Q-VECTOR FORCING AND DEFORMATION AREA STAY                
JUST EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL               
HOLD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA THROUGH MONDAY                   
AFTERNOON. WENT WARMER THAN MET GUIDANCE ON MONDAY WHICH KEEPS THE              
PIEDMONT CLOUDY ALL DAY AND COOLER THAN MAV GUIDANCE WHICH HAS MORE             
SUN IN THE MORNING.                                                             
COLD AIR IS VERY SHALLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MODERATES THE                   
AIRMASS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WELL AABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING.            
SINCE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS               
NOT THAT GOOD AND WITH SUCH SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR AND VERY              
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WILL KEEP JUST LIGHT ANOUMTS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN              
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRIGINA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.                                   
THE NEXT DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BACK THE LOW LEVELS WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL            
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH                      
TEMPERATURES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CLOUDS MOVE              
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING                    
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE GOOD DYNAMICS AND UPPER                 
DIFFLUENCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT STILL SUPPORT RAIN SO NO CHANGE NEEDED TO            
THE FORECAST..EXCEPT WILL INCREASE WINDS SPEEDS A BIT.                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. IN WAKE OF FRONT...                
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY                
PUSH OF WIND ALOFT GIVEN COLD ADVECTION. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MAY CREATE LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SNOW             
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WESTERN AREAS. LOW CLOUD DECK (MVFR/IFR) IN            
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...WHILE IN THE EAST DOWNSLOPE            
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS BY LATE MORNING. MVFR/IFR                     
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TODAY WITH WRAPAROUND PRECIP               
BAND AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF NEARBY. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS ARE                  
POSSIBLE ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KTS ACRS THE                
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS              
PREVAILING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR VAZ015>017 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                            
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ001-002-018 UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY.                        
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
328 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHCS WITH APPCH TROF TNT INTO               
MONDAY AND THEN HANDLING OF SYS FOR MID WEEK.                                   
IN THE SHORT TERM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED APPROACHING                
MID/HI CLOUDS AHEAD OF 500 MB WAVE THAT RUC ANALYSIS PLACED IN THE              
WRN DAKOTAS AT 20Z. SERLY SFC WINDS AS RIDGE OF HI PRES SHIFTED EAST            
BROUGHT REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ONSHORE...KEEPING             
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE MI IN AND OUT OF CLOUDS. WILL MONITOR LATEST                
TRENDS FOR ERLY EVENING CLOUD FCST.                                             
COMPETING FACTORS MAKE PCPN CHANCES FOR CWA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY                 
MORNING DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON BOTH NAM AND             
GFS 290-300K SFCS CROSSES CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH 30-35 KT                 
LLJ...BUT MOISTURE LAGGING. COND PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100-200 MB                
WITH BEST LIFT...THO GFS HAS AN ANOMALOUS SECONDARY BULLSEYE OF NET             
ADIABATIC ISENTROPIC OMEGA AT 12Z OVER S CNTRL WI ON LEADING EDGE OF            
LOWERING PRES DEFICIT GRADIENT.                                                 
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY CONFIRMS DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER RGN...19Z RUC               
PWATS OF 0.25 INCH OR LESS OVER SRN WI...WITH RETURN FLOW JUST NOW              
LIFTING NWD ALONG SFC TROF AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN PANHANDLE             
REGION. 850 MB DEW POINT FCSTS INDICATE NARROW RIBBON OF HIER DEW               
POINTS ARE COINCIDENT WITH 850 MB TROF AXIS...BUT BEHIND BEST                   
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW STRONG MID LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING OVER CWA               
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...BUT BETTER OMEGA ALOFT IS OFFSET BY DOWNWARD              
AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW BELOW 800MB...PROBABLY FROM CAA AT 850 MB AND                 
BELOW THAT BEGINS AROUND 06Z MON...WITH WEAK 1000-850 MB                        
FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR WEST AT 00Z MON DIMINISHING WITH TIME AFTER 06Z            
TO NEAR NOTHING BY 12Z.                                                         
NARROW THETA E RIDGE TO PUSH ALONG/AHEAD OF TROF AS IT CROSSES CWA              
MONDAY MORNING. WILL TIE WHAT SHOULD BE LIGHT/SCT PCPN TO THIS                  
AXIS...WHICH ALSO ALIGNS WELL WITH COLUMN SATURATION ON BUFKIT                  
SNDGS. TOP DOWN AND BOURGOIUN PCPN TYPE METHODS INDICATE ALL RAIN               
FOR CWA.                                                                        
NEXT CONCERN IS MIDWEEK SYSTEM. SWD TREND NOTED BY PREV FCSTR                   
CONTINUES WITH SUN 18Z NAM RUN TRACKING SFC LOW DVLPG OVR SRN MO AT             
06Z WED...THEN MOVG ALONG OHIO RVR VLY TO FAR S CNTRL OHIO BY 06Z               
THUR. 12Z GFS JUST A TAD FARTHER NORTH WITH LOW TRACK IN SAME TIME              
PERIOD...THEN LIFTS IT NWD TO NR WRN LAKE ERIE AND                              
RETROGRADES/REDEVELOPS NR SAGINAW BAY AS CLOSED 500 MB LOW DEEPENS.             
12Z ECMWF ALSO TRENDING WITH OHIO RVR SOLUTION BY 12Z THUR WITH                 
CLOSED 500 LOW FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREV RUNS.                                    
WILL HOLD ON TO CHC POPS FOR WED AS WELL AS RAIN OR SNOW FOR TYPE               
WITH BETTER CLARITY EXPECTED FOR TRACK/TIMING IN LATER RUNS.                    
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
310 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                           
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WERE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCE/TYPE                   
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.               
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MID               
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.            
THIS WAS IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED ACROSS               
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. NARROW BAND OF                
PRECIPITATION NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR FROM NORTHEAST TO WEST                    
CENTRAL MN. LATEST RUC SUPPORTS THIS PRECIPITATION AS ASSOCIATED                
WITH 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED MID                 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS NATIONS MIDSECTION...WITH             
VIGOROUS WAVE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA.                                      
12Z 12NOV06 MODEL SOLUTIONS HAD EXCELLENT CLUSTERING WITH RESPECT               
TO UPPER LEVEL SURFACE FEATURES AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT             
INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH THAT WE             
WILL RECEIVE A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT. IN FACT...80-100 PERCENT              
OF GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTED PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.            
IN ADDITION...NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE SUPPORTED HIGHER PROBABILITY OF                
SNOW IN NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER PROBABILITY            
OF RAIN ELSEWHERE.                                                              
ANOTHER AND MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE MIDWEST             
AT MIDWEEK. EVEN THOUGH MODEL DETAILS STILL DIFFER A BIT...THE                  
CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TOWARD A SOLUTION OF A CLOSED                
500MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY             
BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE HEAVIEST QPF SOUTH OF            
OUR FORECAST AREA....WHICH AGREED WITH NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.              
THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE WAS INCREASING IN THIS AS A PROBABLE                     
SOLUTION...WHICH CURRENT DATA BASE ALREADY SUPPORTS.                            
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A CONSISTENT           
SIGNAL WITH REGARD TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER               
LEVEL WAVE. NORTH-SOUTH CROSS SECTION INDICATED A NARROW BUT STRONG             
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SIGNAL SLIDES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS             
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL STEADILY FOR AWHILE...ALTHOUGH                  
TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE HEAVY AMOUNTS PER              
MODEL QPF. BECAUSE OF CONSISTENTLY STRONG FORCING SIGNAL...                     
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO                
CATEGORICAL VALUES.                                                             
ACCORDING TO NCEP SREF AND BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS...              
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE BEST ACROSS NORTHERN             
MOST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...TAILORED SNOW                   
AMOUNTS IN THE DATA BASE ACCORDINGLY...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF                  
ACCUMULATION IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AND AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.                 
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT               
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...ALTHOUGH BEST DYNAMICS APPEAR TO RESIDE SOUTH            
OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB LOW CLOSES OFF. DIFFERENCES IN                 
STRENGTH OF FORCING NOTED BETWEEN NAM/WRF AND GFS...WITH GFS                    
STRONGER WITH REGARD TO DEEP LAYERED Q-G CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...            
SREF AND BUFKIT PRECIPITATION TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST COULD BE RAIN             
AND/OR SNOW. ONLY CHANGE TO DATA BASE IN THIS TIME FRAME WAS TO TRIM            
EASTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES INTO CENTRAL WI ON               
TUESDAY.                                                                        
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO                 
BETTER CONSENSUS ON CLOSED 500MB LOW ADVANCING FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO            
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WAS CORROBORATED BY              
MREF ENSEMBLES. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN DETAILS                
WITHIN CURRENT DATA BASE...WHICH SUPPORTS DRY CONDITIONS.                       
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS HAD SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN             
THE DETAILS OF UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. MREF ENSEMBLES                 
SUPPORTED A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW...THEREFORE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS             
LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK            
AND THUS MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THOMPSON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   wi