Title  : NSF 92-97 - Directorate for Geosciences Long Range Plan FY 1994-98
Type   : Report
NSF Org: GEO
Date   : August 15, 1992
File   : nsf9297
Executive Summary
The Directorate for Geosciences (GEO) supports research,
education, and human resource development in the geoscience
disciplines.  Through these activities, GEO advances scientific
knowledge of Earth's environment, including its non-living and
living resources such as water, energy, minerals, and fisheries,
and the ability to predict natural phenomena of economic
interest, such as weather, climate and earthquakes.  As a result,
GEO contributes to the Nation's need to understand, predict, and
respond to environmental events and changes, and to use Earth's
resources wisely.
To accomplish their research objectives, the geosciences require
a variety of instruments and facilities, including major
facilities such as research aircraft and vessels, global arrays
of seismometers, and supercomputers, as well as a broad base of
scientific talent.  The GEO Long Range Plan for FY 1994-1998
recognizes the essential connections among research -- both
focused and core disciplinary activities; facilities and
instrumentation; and education and human resources development,
and the need to emphasize all three to ensure a healthy,
productive scientific enterprise.  In this Long Range Plan, GEO
strives to maintain a balance across these activities and between
individual investigator research and large, coordinated projects.
Research.  The principal research goal of GEO is to advance the
state of knowledge of Earth, including its atmosphere,
continents, oceans, ice, and interior, and the processes that
modify them and link them together.  GEO's environmental research
priorities for FY 1994-1998 are to continue development and
implementation of Global Change programs; build environmental
research programs in Hydrological Sciences, Weather Research, and
Coastal Ocean Processes; and contribute to the broad-based
NSF-wide activity in Multidisciplinary Research on the
Environment.
Disciplinary research programs, often referred to as the core
programs, are essential for gaining increased understanding of
phenomena in the geosciences.  Basic research funded through the
disciplinary programs provides the essential foundation for
focused efforts such as Global Change, and is necessary to ensure
the intellectual basis for addressing the environmental problems
of tomorrow.  During the next five years, GEO will continue to
strengthen disciplinary research programs in the atmospheric,
geospace, solid earth, and ocean sciences, including those in the
polar regions.
Facilities and Instrumentation.  The nature of research
activities in the geosciences dictates the need for a wide
variety of facilities and major capital investments. Acquisition
of major capital equipment is required to meet the objectives of
GEO's 1994-1998 environmental research priorities and the core
disciplinary programs.  To address this critical problem, GEO
plans to establish a phased Facilities and Instrumentation
Recapitalization Program.   The highest priorities for FY
1993-1998 are seismic facilities, replacement aircraft and
research vessels, and increased supercomputing capabilities.
Education and Human Resources.  GEO recognizes that to conduct
disciplinary research and interdisciplinary global and regional
science programs, it must expand its efforts to ensure that new
researchers enter the geosciences.  This requires increased
emphasis on education of undergraduates, graduate students, and
postdoctoral professionals, and support for new principal
investigators. Participation of underrepresented groups,
particularly minorities, women and persons with disabilities, is
of special concern.  GEO Divisions are working to recruit,
educate and promote professional careers for persons in these
groups. During FY 1994-1998, GEO will emphasize increasing
support for students and post-doctoral professionals; minority,
women and cross-directorate programs; young investigators; and
undergraduate curriculum development.
* * *
In its long range planning, GEO incorporates the needs and
opportunities of the geosciences community and the mission of
NSF.  GEO plays a lead role in coordinating and stimulating the
formation of new research programs, works closely with its
discipline-based communities, and responds to their strategic
planning.  The FY 1994-1998 GEO Long Range Plan is a product of
this consultative approach.  The ultimate purpose is to improve
our understanding of Earth processes and to lay the scientific
groundwork for others to use in making decisions on important
societal issues.
I.  Introduction    1
GEO Long Range Planning  1
Partnerships   3
Research Overview   4
Facilities and Instrumentation Overview      5
Education and Human Resources Development   Overview   6
II.  Goals and Priorities     7
Mission and Strategic Goals   7
Programmatic Emphases    7
III.  Environmental Research Emphases   10
Global Change Programs   11
Hydrological Sciences    22
U.S. Weather Research Program      23
Coastal Ocean Processes  24
Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment     24
IV.  Disciplinary Programs    29
Atmospheric Sciences     30
Earth Sciences      33
Ocean Sciences      35
Polar Programs      39
V.  Capital Facilities and Instrumentation   44
Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program     45
Other Facilities    49
VI.  Education and Human Resources      52
Undergraduates      53
Graduate Students   54
Postdoctoral Fellowships      55
Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators
(NYI)     56
Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants for Women
     56
Pre-College    57
Reports Supporting the Long Range Plan  58
Acronyms  64
I.  Introduction
The primary roles of the National Science Foundation (NSF) are to
support the Nation's academic-based research in science and
engineering, to enhance the quality of education, and to promote
the development of human resources.   The Directorate for
Geosciences (GEO) supports research, education, and human
resource development in the geoscience disciplines.  Through
these activities, GEO advances scientific knowledge of Earth's
environment, including its resources such as water, energy and
minerals, and the ability to predict natural phenomena of
societal and economic interest, such as weather, climate and
earthquakes.  As a result, GEO contributes to the Nation's need
to understand, predict, and respond to environmental events and
changes, and to use Earth's resources wisely.
By supporting scientists and the training of their students, GEO
provides a broad base of scientific and technical skills needed
to address national environmental, industrial, and resource
concerns, and to respond to emerging national needs and sudden
environmental crises.
To accomplish their research objectives, the geosciences require
scientific talent as well as a variety of instruments and
facilities, including major facilities such as research aircraft
and vessels, global arrays of seismometers, and supercomputers,.
The GEO Long Range Plan recognizes the essential connections
among research -- both focused and core disciplinary activities;
facilities and instrumentation; and education and human resources
development, and the need to emphasize all three to ensure a
healthy, productive scientific enterprise.  GEO's strategy is to
cultivate and integrate these program components.
GEO Long Range Planning
In its planning, GEO incorporates the needs and opportunities of
the geosciences community and the mission of NSF.  GEO plays a
lead role in coordinating and stimulating the formation of new
research programs, works closely with its discipline-based
communities, and responds to their strategic planning.  The FY
1994-1998 GEO Long Range Plan is a product of this consultative
approach.  The ultimate purpose is to improve our understanding
of Earth processes and to lay the scientific groundwork for
others to use in making decisions on important societal issues.
A successful strategy adopted by GEO in developing its long range
plans has been to identify focused research initiatives, based on
recommendations from the science community through the National
Academy of Sciences, science planning workshops, GEO advisory
committees, NSF science management, and other sources.  The
Presidential Initiatives (see page 3) established by the Federal
Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering, and Technology
(FCCSET) are playing a larger role in identifying initiatives and
setting priorities.  In its planning, GEO recognizes the need to
both develop and respond to focused research activities, while
strengthening core disciplinary programs and providing necessary
major capital equipment and instrumentation.  In this Long Range
Plan, GEO strives to maintain a balance across these activities
and between individual investigator research and large,
coordinated projects.  The GEO Long Range Plan is updated and
published annually.
Assessing Long Range Plan Implementation
Each year, GEO conducts an internal assessment of the progress
made toward implementing the broad goals of its Long Range Plan,
in conjunction with the annual NSF planning and budget cycle.
This assessment of progress contributes to GEO's long range
strategy and priority setting for the next fiscal year.
The GEO Long Range Plan is reviewed annually by GEO's four
Divisional Advisory Committees.  Such reviews are an integral
step in the development of the Long Range Plan.  They provide an
opportunity to evaluate the progress made by GEO in implementing
its long range goals and priorities, and to chart future
directions.
Long Range Planning Environment
Major worldwide political and economic changes will affect
national and international scientific activities profoundly over
the period 1994-1998.  These include:
increased international interest in addressing global and
regional environmental stress;
increased economic power of European and Asian nations; and
the end of the Cold War and dissolution of the USSR.
These changes create enhanced opportunities for international
scientific cooperation, especially in the environmental arena
where international awareness and consensus for action are high.
These shifts in the world's political and economic order also
offer serious challenges to U.S. leadership in certain scientific
areas.  To the extent possible, GEO will take advantage of these
trends in its program planning and implementation.
The impacts of constrained Federal and State budgets and the need
to develop new ways of ensuring the health and vitality of the
Nation's scientific enterprise also contribute to the GEO long
range planning environment for FY 1994-1998.
Partnerships
Academic Community
GEO provides about 60 percent of the Federal support for basic
geosciences research conducted at U.S. universities and thus has
a close working relationship with the academic community.  Each
GEO Division has a Divisional Advisory Committee with
representation from academia which identifies research
opportunities and priorities and conducts strategic planning
every 3-4 years.  GEO also seeks advice on research directions
and priorities from several Boards and Committees of the National
Academy of Sciences.  In addition, the academic community
participates in the oversight of GEO programs and program
management through NSF's Committee of Visitors mechanism.   As
time and travel funds allow, GEO senior staff and program
managers interact with the scientific community by attending
professional meetings, workshops and by site visits.
Interagency and International
Many of GEO's research programs are implemented with other
agencies and/or nations.  This coordination makes better use of
scarce resources and helps clarify common scientific goals.  GEO
participates in five FCCSET initiatives:  Global Change, High
Performance Computing and Communication, Mathematics and Science
Education, Biotechnology, and Advanced Materials.  In Global
Change -- the largest initiative for GEO -- several scientific
projects are implemented with other agencies and countries.  For
example, the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP) and the
World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) are supported by NSF,
NASA, and NOAA and numerous international partners; the Joint
Global Ocean Flux Studies (JGOFS) Program is supported by NSF,
NOAA, NASA, ONR, seven European countries, Japan, and Canada; and
the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is supported
by NSF, NOAA, and NASA, and is coordinated with 15 other
countries.  GEO is also involved in coordinating the U.S. Weather
Research Program, water resources,  and coastal ocean research
through interagency FCCSET committees.
GEO coordinates several interagency and international activities
outside the FCCSET framework.  These activities include
construction and operation of the academic research fleet,
supported by NSF, Navy and other agencies; operation of the
Global Seismic Network, coordinated with seven other countries
through an international federation; the Ocean Drilling Program,
supported by the U.S. and 19 other countries; and the U.S.
Continental Drilling Program, conducted in cooperation with USGS
and DOE.  GEO plays a key role in interagency coordination of
arctic activities through the Interagency Arctic Research Policy
Committee (IARPC) and also participates in the International
Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (STEP), a program of the
International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU).
Industry
Industry serves as a source of support and advice to GEO programs
and benefits from research supported by GEO.  For example, the
petroleum and mineral industries have participated in scientific
drilling programs by providing geophysical data and samples as
well as support for university scientists and students.  They
also benefit from immediate access to research results.  The
offshore oil industry benefits from environmental data, new
instrumentation, and marine geological and geophysical
observations, all provided through GEO support. Computer
companies have contributed resources to the National Center for
Atmospheric Research and to the University Data System (UNIDATA)
weather information program at Purdue University.  The IRIS
consortium has strong, mutually beneficial connections to
manufacturing industries in which it helps industry design
seismic instruments, and then purchases them from the
manufacturer.  The UNAVCO consortium has a similar relationship
with industry in the design and purchase of Global Positioning
System (GPS) receivers.
Another way in which GEO supports interactions between industry
and academic scientists is through Science and Technology
Centers.  For example, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of
Storms at the University of Oklahoma benefits from equipment and
personnel provided by several computer companies, and these
personnel benefit from first-hand experience with cutting edge,
computationally intensive problems, helping them to anticipate
future hardware and software needs.  The Center for High Pressure
Research at the State University of New York at Stony Brook
receives equipment and support for post-docs from industries
interested in production of industrial diamonds and other high
pressure materials.  These industries benefit from up-to-date
knowledge about high pressure research, and also from the
Center's output of trained materials scientists.
GEO also uses various industries as subcontractors, such as for
seismic studies, operation of the Ocean Drilling Ship, and
logistic support for the U.S. Antarctic Program.  Industry
representatives serve on Divisional Advisory Committees, as
reviewers for research proposals, and as participants in planning
workshops.
Research Overview
Over the past decade, the geosciences have provided increased
insight into the functioning of the global Earth system.  This
scientific knowledge base, together with technological advances,
provides an important opportunity for making bold new advances in
understanding Earth and its subsystems.
The principal research goal of GEO is to advance the state of
knowledge about Earth, including its atmosphere, continents,
oceans, ice, and interior, and the processes that modify them and
link them together.  GEO accomplishes this through its four
Divisions by supporting basic disciplinary research as well as
focused research efforts.  Included are studies of:
Atmosphere:  its general circulation, the chemical and physical
basis of climate and its history, and the smaller-scale,
shorter-term phenomena that describe weather processes;
Geospace:  the domain of solar-terrestrial science, covering the
study of neutral particles, plasmas, and fields from Earth's
middle atmosphere to the Sun;
Solid Earth:  its structure, composition, and history, to improve
understanding of the processes that govern its environment,
resources,  hazards, and beneficial use;
Ocean:  the physical, chemical, geological, and biological
processes in the world ocean and at its boundaries with the
atmosphere, the shoreline, the sea floor, and Earth's crust
beneath; and
Polar Regions:  research in the Arctic and Antarctic that helps
to explain regional and worldwide phenomena and assures equitable
and prudent use of resources while protecting the environment.
GEO seeks to increase understanding of Earth's environment
through observation and the acquisition of data; the study of
basic physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes
influencing the environment; and the development of integrated,
predictive models of the Earth system.  It is only through the
interaction of these efforts to observe, understand, and predict
that the goal of full understanding can be achieved.
A programmatic description of GEO's research emphases and
priorities for FY 1994-1998 is presented in Chapters III and IV.
Facilities and Instrumentation Overview
The nature of research activities in the geosciences, such as
airborne campaigns to study chemical properties of the
atmosphere, research cruises to sample ocean properties, global
seismic tomography experiments, and the range of research
activities undertaken in the polar regions, dictates the need for
a wide variety of facilities and major capital investments.  By
leveraging private sector funds, GEO has been able to handle some
of its capital needs, but many remain to be addressed.
Maintaining, upgrading and replacing critical multi-user
equipment is a high priority for GEO during the period FY
1994-1998, to ensure excellence in research and safety of
research operations.
Acquisition of major capital equipment over the period FY
1994-1998 is required to meet the objectives of GEO's
environmental research priorities -- Global Change, the U.S.
Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, Hydrological
Sciences, and Multidisciplinary Environmental Research --  and
the core disciplinary programs.  The highest priorities are
seismic facilities, replacement aircraft and research vessels,
and increased supercomputing capabilities.
A description of GEO's plan for meeting the facilities and
instrumentation needs of the geosciences disciplines is presented
in Chapter V.
Education and Human Resources Development Overview
Since the mid-1980s, NSF has expanded its educational and human
resources programs;  this continues to be a high priority in the
1990s.  Changing national demographics, economic competition in
an increasingly technological world, and the continued
empowerment of citizens in a democratic society, all require
higher levels of scientific and mathematical literacy.
Participation of underrepresented groups, particularly
minorities, women and persons with disabilities, is of special
concern.  GEO Divisions are working to recruit, educate and
promote professional careers for persons in these groups.
GEO recognizes that to conduct disciplinary research and
interdisciplinary global and regional science programs, it must
expand its efforts to ensure that new researchers enter the
geosciences.  This requires increased emphasis on education of
undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral
professionals, and support for new principal investigators.  It
also involves supporting the K-12 school system, especially the
science education component of integrated curricula.  NSF
cross-directorate programs that address education and human
resources concerns, such as Research Experiences for
Undergraduates (REU), Career Advancement Awards and Research
Planning Grants for Women, Minority Research Initiation (MRI),
and Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young
Investigators (NYI), will continue to be supported by GEO.
A description of GEO's activities and emphases in the areas of
education and human resource development is presented in Chapter
VI.
II.  Goals and Priorities
Mission and Strategic Goals
GEO's mission is to support excellence in research, to develop
human resources, and to contribute to societal needs.  To
accomplish this mission, GEO is guided by the following strategic
goals:
Promote excellence in scientific research at universities and
national centers;
Promote excellence in science education and human resources
development;
Provide the resources and infrastructure needed to address
large-scale, long-term problems in the geosciences;
Provide the technological tools to advance knowledge of the
Earth, such as computers; instruments for seismic, acoustic and
photo-optical imaging; and  ground-based sensors;
Maintain an active presence in the Antarctic and Arctic by
conducting high quality research programs carried out without
adverse effects on personnel or on the environment;
Advance NSF leadership in interagency, international, and
interdisciplinary research programs; and
Provide a dependable base of scientific knowledge for use in
solving national environmental problems.
Programmatic Emphases
To meet these goals in FY 1994-1998, GEO will focus its support
on the following programmatic emphases in research, including
environmental initiatives and disciplinary research; facilities
and instrumentation; and education and human resources.  This
Long Range Plan recognizes the essential interconnectedness of
these program components and strives to maintain a balance across
them.
Research:  Environmental Research Priorities
Continue to develop ongoing programs in Global Change, and
implement those being planned; and
Build high quality environmental research programs, including
Hydrological Sciences, the U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal
Ocean Processes, and Arctic Environmental Research and other
multidisciplinary environmental activities.
Research:  Disciplinary Research
Strengthen disciplinary research programs in the atmospheric,
geospace, solid earth, and ocean sciences, including those in the
polar regions.
Facilities and Instrumentation
Maintain, upgrade and replace multi-user capital equipment needed
by the geosciences research community, such as seismic
facilities, research aircraft and vessels, and supercomputers;
Provide instrumentation required by the geosciences community;
and
Maintain, upgrade and replace antarctic stations.
Education and Human Resources
Increase support for students and post-doctoral professionals;
Support minority, women and cross-directorate programs;
Support young investigators; and
Support undergraduate curriculum development.
III.  Environmental Research Emphases
Unprecedented changes to global and regional environments from
human activities such as burning of fossil fuels, releasing
chlorofluorocarbons, polluting water resources, and deforestation
are recognized worldwide.  Decreased concentrations of
stratospheric ozone, first recognized over the polar regions, now
extend into lower latitudes.  Increased concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are likely to contribute to
atmospheric warming.  Waste discharges affect the productivity of
estuaries and near-shore regions.  Continued growth in worldwide
population, industrial development, and energy consumption are
increasing this global and regional environmental stress.
Political leaders worldwide acknowledge the existence of
environmental problems and the need to search for solutions.
Recognizing that Earth system changes such as drought, volcanism,
severe storms, atmospheric and oceanic pollution, and increases
in greenhouse gases, have widespread economic and societal
impacts, the United States and other countries are continuing to
support policy forums and research programs to understand natural
and human-induced changes in the Earth system.  Relaxation of
worldwide political tensions may provide a more hospitable
setting for cooperative international programs vital for
understanding environmental systems on a global scale.  The
increasing interest of European and Asian nations in investing in
environmental research should also contribute to enhanced
cooperative opportunities.
Developing sound policies and strategies in response to
environmental change requires improved understanding of the
geosciences.  To address this need, GEO has selected the
following environmental research areas, in decreasing priority
order, to emphasize in the FY 1994-1998 time frame:
     Global Change,
     Hydrological Sciences,
     U.S. Weather Research Program,
     Coastal Ocean Processes, and
     A special emphasis on Multidisciplinary Research, including
     Arctic Environmental Research, Environmental Geochemistry,
     Land-Use Geology, Sensitive Coastal Ecosystems, and
     Integrated Regional Modeling.
These areas have been identified as being of high priority by the
science community through reports from the National Academy of
Sciences, GEO advisory committees, workshops, and other sources,
and by NSF science management.
Basic research and facilities funded through the disciplinary
research programs provide the foundation for these focused
efforts; thus, strengthening the disciplinary programs is
necessary to ensure the intellectual basis for solving the
unexpected environmental problems of tomorrow.
Global Change Programs
Global Change is the highest priority research area for GEO.  In
1987, NSF began a new program called Global Geosciences to
support studies of the Earth as a system of interrelated
physical, chemical, geological, and biological processes.  This
broad research activity involved GEO and the Directorate for
Biological, Behavioral and Social Sciences.  Two years later, NSF
designated the Global Geosciences program as its contribution to
the focused U.S. Global Change Research Program, an integrated
program of Earth system observations, process studies, and
modeling introduced as a Presidential initiative in the FY 1990
Budget and coordinated by the Committee on Earth and
Environmental Sciences (CEES) of the Federal Coordinating Council
for Science, Engineering and Technology (FCCSET).  This Program
is designed to reduce scientific uncertainty about the global
Earth system and to increase the scientific knowledge base for
use by decisionmakers.
GEO's Global Change program has realized significant growth since
its inception.  As a percentage of the total GEO budget, the
global change component is planned to plateau in FY 1993.  The
President's FY 1993 Budget Request for the U.S. Global Change
Research Program is $1,372.4 million, a 24 percent increase over
the FY 1992 funding level.  This request includes $162.5 million
for NSF, an increase of $54 million or 50% above the FY 1992
level:  $133.7 million for GEO; $7.1 million for the U.S.
Antarctic Program; $9.85 million for the Biological Sciences
Directorate; and $11.85 million for the Social, Behavioral and
Economic Sciences Directorate.
The goal of GEO's global change programs is to understand the
interrelated dynamics of Earth systems in their present state,
and to use modeling capabilities to predict future changes.
Major themes involve studies of global ocean and atmospheric
circulation; the continental hydrologic cycle; global
tropospheric chemistry; exchanges of biological and chemical
materials within the oceans and among the atmosphere, land and
ocean; ecosystems; the role of the polar regions in global
change; properties of the solid earth, especially tectonics and
geodynamics; studies of the latitudinal coupling of the middle
and upper atmospheric regions; effects of solar variability; and
evidence of these processes operating in the past at various
temporal and spatial scales.
The full complement of GEO's global change programs, categorized
by the science priority area they address, is shown on page 14.
These programs, summarized briefly below,  are described in more
detail in National Science Foundation Global Change Research
Program: FY 1991-1992 Research Opportunities (NSF Pub. No.
91-33), a publication that is currently being updated for FY
1993.
International Field Programs
GEO contributes to four major international field programs: the
World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), the Joint Global Ocean
Flux Study (JGOFS), the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA)
Program, and the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry
(IGAC) Programme.  These programs are components of the World
Climate Research Programme (WOCE and TOGA) and the International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (JGOFS and IGAC).  The investment
by NSF and other agencies in these programs has produced
significant results, and support for these programs will continue
during FY 1994-1998.
TOGA is a 10-year program (1985-1994) designed to examine whether
the coupled ocean-atmosphere system can be modeled to predict
climate and its variations on interannual time scales.  Notable
success has already been achieved in forecasting the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation.  A major field program -- the TOGA
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) -- is
planned for FY 1992-1993, with expanded regional observations for
up to a year before and after the intensive observational period.
The objectives of this experiment are to describe and understand
processes responsible for the formation of the warm pool of ocean
water in the western Pacific, the atmospheric convection that
results, the oceanic response, and the multiple-scale
interactions that extend the influence of the warm pool to other
regions.  Analyses of these data and efforts to integrate them
into coupled models will be accelerated throughout the rest of
the decade.
The main goal of WOCE is to understand the global ocean
circulation well enough to model its present state and predict
its evolution in response to long-term climate changes.  At any
location, several years of ocean measurements are usually
required to understand general ocean circulation.  The WOCE
measurement program began in 1991, and new data on the general
circulation of the Pacific Ocean are now being processed.  The
program is supported by a number of agencies and will be fully
implemented in 1994.  The U.S. Antarctic Program supports
research contributing to WOCE, with emphasis on process
experiments in the Southern Ocean, including a coordinated,
international study of the Weddell Gyre and an eddy diffusion
study at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula.
The overall objective of the Global Tropospheric Chemistry
Program (GTCP) is to measure, understand, and predict changes in
the chemistry of the global atmosphere, emphasizing changes
affecting the oxidizing capacity  and radiative properties of the
atmosphere and the atmospheric component of biogeochemical
cycles.  Major aircraft and land-based field observations to
investigate atmospheric cycles of nitrogen, sulphur, and oxidant
species are scheduled throughout the 1990s, including
multi-agency and international activities that will be part of
the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Programme.
IGAC/GTCP field projects scheduled for 1993 and 1994 include
studies of surface exchange processes and photochemistry in
equatorial and mid-latitude continental and oceanic regions of
the globe.  In addition to field programs, research on the
modeling of global scale chemistry, the development of chemical
transformation and transport algorithms for inclusion in general
circulation models, and laboratory investigations of the
mechanisms and rates of key chemical reactions are also
supported.
U.S. JGOFS.  This program is designed to identify and quantify
biological and chemical processes that control large-scale
cycling and fluxes in the ocean and at its boundaries well enough
to predict their influence on perturbations to the global
environment.  A five-nation field program in the North Atlantic
in 1989 produced the best existing data set for studying the
seasonal progression of changes in the carbon cycle.  Two
long-term time-series stations have been established, one near
Hawaii and the other near Bermuda.  U.S. JGOFS and its
international parent JGOFS have begun a 2-year Pacific Process
Study that involves several Pacific rim countries and  joint
collaboration with IGAC.  Expeditions in 1993 will focus on the
Southern Ocean and be followed by Indian Ocean studies in 1994.
During this period the U.S. and other participating countries
will be conducting CO2 analyses, and perhaps pigment and optical
measurements, on WOCE track lines.  The U.S. Antarctic Program
plans to support projects meeting the goals of U.S. JGOFS in FY
1994-1998.  The extensive continental shelves, the low stability
of the euphotic zone, and the seasonal sea ice cover of the polar
regions produce unique environmental conditions that affect
regional biogeochemical cycles.  The vastness of the Southern
Ocean makes it a crucial component for developing biogeochemical
budgets for the ocean.
Other Climate & Hydrology Programs
The Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW) program supports
studies of the role of clouds as feedbacks on global climate
processes.  High priority will be given to research related to
the following: (1) the composition, optical thickness and
radiative properties of clouds, particularly cirrus clouds, (2)
the role of entrainment in cloud formation and dissipation, and
(3) the dynamical interactions of clouds and their environment.
A modeling component will focus on scale interactions, especially
parameterizations of the role of clouds as a climate feedback.
In addition to the cloud studies, ROCEW will support work on the
thermal balance of the atmosphere and the exchange of moisture
and energy with land, ocean, and ice.  Methods of predicting
changes in water distribution in the atmosphere and underlying
surfaces will be developed.   ROCEW will contribute to the Global
Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) of the World Climate
Research Programme.
The Continental Hydrologic Processes (CHP) program addresses four
areas related to understanding the continental hydrologic cycle
in the context of global change: (1) Atmosphere-Land Surface
Interactions at the Mesoscale -- improved knowledge of the
spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, snow cover, soil
moisture, groundwater recharge, runoff, sedimentation and
evapotranspiration over a broad range of scales will be
addressed; (2) Scaling of Dynamic Behavior -- basic research will
be supported on the scale dependence and scale invariance of
hydrologic processes in space and time; (3) Biogeochemical Fluxes
-- CHP will consider the transport of sediment and chemical
constituents in the hydrologic system; and (4) General
Circulation Models (GCMs) -- CHP will consider feedbacks from the
hydrologic system in the context of GCMs.  The CHP program began
in FY 1991, and will expand steadily through FY 1998.
Climate System Modeling and Database Management
Earth system processes and feedbacks are complex.  Therefore,
questions about future states of our environment -- global and
regional distributions of temperature and precipitation, sea
level, water resources, and biological productivity -- can be
studied only through theoretical model simulations and
predictions.  The Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction
(CMAP) program will support university and NCAR projects in model
development, testing, validation, error estimation, and
assessment of predictability, with special attention to
separating natural from human-induced variability.  CMAP will
address temporal scales from seasonal to centennial and spatial
scales from regional to global, and will also help define the
global change observational requirements from a modeling
perspective.  CMAP will include enhancements to ongoing modeling
efforts such as NCAR's Community Climate Model and support for
new projects aimed at accelerating coupled climate system
modeling.  The program will be implemented in collaboration with
modeling programs of other CEES agencies and will be
complementary to and integrated with research in Federal
laboratories.
An essential component in the development of climate models is
the management of data.  GEO's Geosystems Databases program
involves a sustained effort, in cooperation with other science
agencies, to collect, organize, process, and assimilate, using
state-of-the-art models, long-term global synoptic data to
understand how the Earth functions as a system.  This program
will support many activities in global change and geosciences
disciplinary research.  Over the period of this plan, the
geosciences will experience rapid advances in the amount and
quality of observational and modeling data available for
research.  Management of these data will require both increased
human support and enhanced technology.  Development of Geosystems
Databases and the planning necessary to handle large, integrated
data sets must be done in the context of a national commitment
and plan.  In 1987, NOAA, NASA, NSF, USGS, DOE, and DOD (Navy)
formed the Ad Hoc Interagency Working Group on Data Management
for Global Change.  This multiagency commitment is to develop a
national data and information system for global change research
by 1995 that is consistent across agencies and supports
universities and other user communities.  Geosystems Databases
will be NSF's contribution to the Interagency Working Group's
program and will be carried out within the framework of that
program.  A major NSF role will be to provide hardware, software,
and the communication networks necessary for the scientific
community to use data effectively for research and education.
Research on new techniques for managing large, complex data sets
and on standards for general archiving of value-added or derived
subsets of raw data will be supported.
Ecological Systems and Dynamics
GEO supports ecological studies of relevance to global change
through five programs:  Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics
(GLOBEC); Land-Margin Ecosystems Research (LMER); Ozone
Depletion/UV Effects; Antarctic Ecosystems; and Arctic System
Science (ARCSS; see pages 21-23).  The effects of global climate
change on animal populations and biomass in the world ocean are
neither obvious nor predictable.  Population variability can be
dramatic, particularly in populations contributing to human food
supplies.  In the context of future climate changes, GLOBEC will
focus on how changes in ocean physics affect animal population
dynamics, community composition, and the stability of ocean
ecosystems.  Planning is active at community, agency, and
international levels for process studies in the North Atlantic,
Eastern Pacific, Southern Ocean and Arabian Sea.  Model
development involving the coupling of biological and physical
systems, with emphases on micro to mesoscale regions, has begun.
Acoustic technology development has been initiated in GLOBEC to
enhance ocean sampling of animals over large space and time
scales.  The first focused research activity of GLOBEC is an
investigation of the long-term variability of North Atlantic
animal populations in the context of climate/ocean variability,
beginning in 1992.  Planning efforts include participation of
NOAA and international partners (Canada and North European
countries).
Coastal regions will attract increasing numbers of the world
human population and be impacted by the consequent anthropogenic
effects.  LMER is a cooperative program between GEO and the
Directorate for Biological Sciences for interdisciplinary
research on ecosystems at the land-sea interface and their
composite populations and natural communities.  Emphases include
understanding of increasing pollution (particularly
eutrophication) consequences of increased global temperatures and
rising sea level.  A five-year research program in the Chesapeake
Bay started in FY 1988.  The program expanded and became
multi-agency (NOAA, EPA) in FY 1990 with joint support of
multi-year studies of the Columbia River system, Cape Cod region,
and Tomales Bay, California, estuary.  During FY 1994-1998, up to
five additional regional, multi-investigator projects will be
developed to address other environmental regimes.  Planning is
under way to develop integrated analyses of these diverse coastal
research programs during the mid to late 1990s.
Future changes in global climate may have the greatest impact on
high latitude ecosystems.  GEO has under way several
interdisciplinary investigations of terrestrial, limnetic, and
marine ecosystems in Antarctica including investigations of the
impacts of increased ultraviolet radiation on species composition
and ecosystem dynamics.  This Antarctic Ecosystems program is
complementary to GLOBEC objectives.  Information on environmental
change, whether human-induced or natural, can only be found from
long-term data sets.  Therefore, Long-Term Ecological Research
(LTER) studies are vital to understanding environmental change on
interannual to decadal time scales.  The first LTER in the
Antarctic was started in FY 1990 to begin long-term
investigations of marine ecosystems, and a second LTER is planned
for FY 1993.
The Ozone Depletion/UV Effects program supports studies of
increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation reaching Earth's surface as
a result of ozone depletion and its effects on the biota and
ecosystem.  This research includes instrumentation development
for UV monitoring; UV data collection, reduction and distribution
to the science community; and field, laboratory, and statistical
efforts.  The program also supports observational and theoretical
studies of antarctic ozone depletion targeted to aid
understanding of stratospheric ozone chemistry, with particular
emphasis on the depletion of ozone over Antarctica.  The
depletion phenomenon is studied in a series of balloon-borne and
land-based field projects in Antarctica.  This effort will
continue during FY 1994-1998.  Much progress has been made in
understanding the chemistry of the ozone hole, but now attention
will turn to its dynamics, particularly as the hole deepens and
increases in extent.
Earth System History
The integrated response of the Earth system to climatic and
environmental perturbations is preserved in natural archives of
many types, including tree rings; ice cores; marine, lake and
terrestrial sediments; corals; pollen and microfossil
assemblages; and ancient soils.  The physical, chemical,
geological and biological parameters of these systems provide the
data necessary to reconstruct Earth's natural behavior, to
evaluate the effects of human activities, and to test GCM
predictions.  These records of the past are, in some cases, the
only way to study certain kinds of natural environments and
phenomena, e.g., Milankovitch cycles and past periods of extreme
global heat and cold.
The GEO Earth System History activity includes coordinated
programs from all four GEO Divisions and concentrates on critical
components of the coupled earth-ocean- atmosphere system,
including those aspects that cross several disciplinary
boundaries. The GEO activity began in FY 1989-1990 with the
Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2;  page 21) and studies of the
geological record, expanded to include short-term variability
studies in FY 1991 and FY 1992, and will increase to FY 1998 with
support for all elements of the program.  It will contribute to
the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Past
Global Changes (PAGES) core project.
Abrupt Climate Change (ACC).  The primary focus of this
Atmospheric Sciences program is on understanding episodes of
rapid climatic changes lasting several tens to several hundreds
of years that occurred during the past few hundred thousand
years.  Field programs, data analysis and modeling studies are
concentrating on sensitive areas or those of high climatic
impact, i.e., monsoon regions; high latitudes, especially arctic
lake and estuary systems; ice sheets; and the tropics.  The
Abrupt Climate Change program is coordinated with Polar Programs'
paleoenvironment component of ARCSS (see pages 20-22).
Marine Aspects of Earth System History (MESH).  The MESH report
(1991) identifies four aspects of Earth system history with
records primarily contained in marine sediments.  Research
supported by the MESH program of the Division of Ocean Sciences
will focus on understanding two major boundary conditions that
impact climate change -- the geologic records of the carbon
system and of sea level changes.  Research will focus on
understanding controls on changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases on time scales of thousands of years
and rates and magnitudes of sea level change in the glacial and
pre-glacial past.  Major climate perturbations will be examined
through analysis of past instabilities in the ocean-atmosphere
system and studies of environments of extreme warm periods.  The
history of deep and surface water circulation changes will be
coordinated with records of atmospheric circulation to provide
data sets for validating climate models.  Brief warming events
superimposed on glacial conditions and longer episodes with
partial polar ice and ice-free episodes will be studied to
validate models for conditions significantly different from those
of the present.  Collections of new, high resolution marine cores
are a requirement for these studies.  Additional sample material
will be provided by ocean drilling, recovery of ice cores, and
sampling of the terrestrial record.
Geologic Record of Global Change (GRGC).  The objective of the
Geologic Record of Global Change program of the Earth Sciences
Division is to use the wide variety of geologic records as
proxies to interpret and understand the interactive processes
that affect the time variability of past environmental and
climate changes.  The focus is both to understand specific
processes and describe the regional and global distribution of
environments as a function of time so that models of global
change may be checked against established data bases.  In
addition, attention will be paid to specific time intervals in
the past that have particular promise for interpreting the cause
of extreme environmental conditions, and to the use of the
geologic record to quantify and understand the geochemical
cycling of elements and nutrients during intervals with different
environmental regimes.
Solid Earth Processes
The Geodynamics program supports three main activities: the
development and deployment of a global network of wideband
digital seismometers for monitoring and understanding
earthquakes; Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers to monitor
and understand the accumulation and release of crustal strain and
to monitor changes in sea level; and field studies in active
tectonics, including studies of earthquake frequency (tree rings
and trenching), studies of volcanoes and their effects on the
chemistry and physics of the atmosphere, and recent changes in
geomorphology and sedimentation patterns resulting from global
environmental changes and/or tectonic forces.  During FY
1994-1998, this program will continue acquisition of digital
seismometers and GPS receivers and will emphasize field studies
of sea level change using the Navstar satellite system with GPS
instrumentation, and volcano-atmosphere interactions.
Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE) seeks to
understand the physical, chemical, and biological causes and
consequences of energy transfer through time and space between
the global midocean ridge volcanic system and the ocean
environment.   The primary objective of RIDGE relative to global
change is to understand the geological, chemical, biological, and
physical oceanographic interactions between the oceans and
hydrothermal circulation of seawater through the ocean crust.
Most of the heat loss from Earth's interior occurs through the
midocean ridge system by means of this circulation.  Since the
crustal generation process is episodic, large local releases of
heat are expected to be episodic on periods of decades to
centuries, with a higher frequency on the fast-spreading ridges
in the Pacific than on the slower-spreading ridges in the
Atlantic.  Hydrothermal circulation inputs heat and chemicals to
the bottom surface of the oceans, and thus relatively small
inputs may have pronounced effects.  The extent of these effects
is, however, relatively unknown.  Projects aimed at understanding
hydrothermal circulation occurred in 1991-1994 on the Juan de
Fuca Ridge, the East Pacific Rise, and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.
Solar Influences
The main goal of the Coupling, Energetics, and Dynamics of
Atmospheric Regions (CEDAR) program is to define and understand
the global influence of the solar energy input on the Earth's
upper atmosphere (90-1000 km) and the energetic, dynamic,
latitudinal and vertical coupling between that region and the
middle atmosphere (50-90 km).  Between 1993 and 1998, more than
20 field campaigns are planned, ranging from coordinated,
multi-instrument studies of high latitude plasma structures to
studies of the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere and
thermosphere.  These campaigns rely heavily on upgraded existing
facilities, new instrument development, and the deployment of new
observing stations.  There is a high degree of collaboration and
coordination between the NSF CEDAR activity and other Federal
agencies and laboratories (NASA, NOAA, Air Force Phillips
Laboratory, NRL).  In addition, many of the campaign activities
have been accepted by major international scientific
organizations as core programs in international global programs.
The geospace environment is a relatively unexplored link in the
chain connecting the sun to the atmosphere by way of radiation,
particles and fields.  The Geospace Environmental Modeling (GEM)
program aims to formulate a mathematical framework that predicts
"weather and climate" in geospace.  Such a geospace circulation
model is important for predicting the effects of
solar-terrestrial variations in the Earth system and for
understanding solar-terrestrial impacts on technological systems
such as high-latitude power grids.  The major thrust is to
monitor the upper atmosphere using state-of-the-art remote
sensing; interpretation of the data will require theory campaigns
and discipline data centers.  Other agencies and nations have
been active participants in the planning process for GEM.
Starting in FY 1993, GEM will target theory and observing
campaigns to understand the dayside magnetospheric boundary and
the transfer of solar energy into the polar upper atmosphere.
Understanding the sources of "noise" is an essential element to
describe any physical process.  To understand anthropogenic
global changes, we must identify the noise due to natural
variations:  solar variability and volcanoes.  The solar dynamo
has variations on very long time scales associated with
terrestrial climate change, e.g., the 17th Century Little Ice Age
and the 11th Century Medieval Optimum.  The Radiative Inputs of
the Sun to the Earth (SunRISE) program examines the solar origin
of variations of the solar constant (total irradiance) and
spectral irradiance, particularly the UV and EUV components.
Starting in FY 1993, SunRISE will begin to implement its plan to
establish observing and theoretical goals aimed at understanding
the solar radiative component of global and climate change.  This
will aid in distinguishing signal from noise as we try to
determine anthropogenic influences on Earth's environment.
Arctic System Science
The goals of Arctic System Science are to understand the
physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social processes
of the arctic system that interact with the total Earth system
and thus contribute to or are influenced by global change.  ARCSS
seeks to advance the scientific basis for predicting
environmental change on a decade to centuries time scale and to
formulate policy options in response to the expected impacts on
humans and societal support systems.  This program has
Directorate-wide sponsorship.  ARCSS research activities include:
Greenland Ice Sheet Project II (GISP2).   GISP2, the first
project in the ARCSS program, is the cornerstone of the program's
commitment to the study of paleoclimates.  Retrieval of a deep
ice core from central Greenland is under way.  An ice core
extending to a depth of 3,200 meters is expected to yield a high
resolution paleoclimatic and atmospheric record spanning
approximately 200,000 years.  Drilling of the GISP2 ice core is
part of complementary efforts among scientists from the U.S. and
several European countries.  Field work, begun in May 1989, is
expected to continue through 1993, with data analysis extending
through 1996.  The coordinated multidisciplinary program is
conducted by researchers from 12 universities.
Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE).  Because of
their rich biological records and close association with changing
ice sheets, sediments from polar and subpolar lakes, bogs and
estuaries are sensitive indicators of past climate fluctuations.
These sediments contain detailed records of changes in the
physical environment and responses of the biosphere.  Proxy
records obtained from these sediments will aid in understanding
the role of arctic air masses in the changing patterns of
atmospheric circulation and environmental and biotic responses to
those changes.  Studies of lake and near-shore ocean sediments
around Greenland will be especially helpful in interpreting ice
core records expected from GISP2.  Development of this analytical
technique is under way.  The program is expected to grow steadily
during this planning period.
Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. ARCSS research will
investigate the effects of energy exchange on the water column in
the Arctic Ocean and adjoining seas and ocean, and interactions
with the overlying atmosphere.  Research strategies focus on
determination of atmosphere/ocean interactions at marginal ice
edges and polynyas; determination of continental shelf/ocean
basin interactions; formulation of Arctic Ocean/atmosphere
processes in the context of models linking global ocean,
atmosphere and biosphere; and investigation of the deposition and
cycling of biogenic materials at the sediment/water interface of
continental shelves and slopes.   Science workshops have served
to focus interested communities.  Interagency planning led to a
strategy document for an FY 1991 start to the program, with
planned growth through 1998.
Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions. Interactions between
atmosphere, land and ice in the Arctic also have major global
impacts.  A strategy for an integrated land-atmosphere-ice
program, which includes social sciences, has been developed and
highlights the following questions: how do feedback processes
within the arctic system amplify global climate change, its
effects, and climate variability within the Arctic; how will
arctic and global systems be affected by, and have an effect
upon, changes in the fluxes of ice, fresh water, and water-borne
materials; how will ecosystems and humans in the Arctic respond
to global change; and how will changes in the arctic system
affect the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
An NSF program announcement was issued for FY 1992.
A special acquisition and instrumentation development program is
planned for 1994 to provide necessary analytical capabilities and
logistical facilities for the ARCSS program.
Hydrological Sciences
The second highest priority environmental initiative for GEO is
to establish within the Division of Earth Sciences, in
cooperation with the Division of Atmospheric Sciences, a new
program in Hydrologic Sciences.  "Hydrologic Science can now be
seen as a geoscience interactive on a wide range of space and
time scales with the ocean, atmospheric, and solid earth sciences
as well as with the plant and animal sciences."  The quote,
extracted from the 1991 NRC report Opportunities in the
Hydrologic Sciences, emphasizes the broad scope of this subject.
The breadth of scientific disciplines participating in research
to gain a full understanding of the hydrological cycle, and the
importance of water to human populations, underscore the major
role a number of Federal agencies play in different
mission-related aspects of the hydrological sciences. This
growing importance of the hydrologic sciences is also reflected
in a dramatic increase in the hiring of hydrologists in academic
geoscience departments.  Nevertheless, until recently there was
limited Federal support for basic research in this field (unless
related to specific applications) and NSF support was
concentrated largely on engineering aspects.
This new Hydrologic Sciences program will be aimed at fundamental
scientific understanding of Earth's hydrologic systems and
development of a sound scientific basis for the many and varied
applications of hydrology.  The scope of the program is wide and
includes research on precipitation, lakes, streams, and
groundwater, and their interactions with landforms, climate,
weather, the biosphere, and the Earth's crust.  This program
provides needed supporting research for several focused global
change programs: Continental Hydrologic Processes (CHP), the Role
of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW), and the international Global
Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX).
In the years 1994-1998 GEO plans to augment this program and
develop more fully its linkages with other programs in the
Foundation and in other Federal agencies that deal with aspects
of water research.  There is growing support for an interagency
program of freshwater studies that would bring together the
physical, chemical and geologic aspects of water science with
aquatic biology and ecosystems research.
U.S. Weather Research Program
The 1990s will bring unprecedented opportunity to make major
advances in the scientific understanding of storm-scale weather
phenomena because: (1) the deployment of new, operational high
resolution instruments (e.g., atmospheric profilers, NEXRAD
radars) has begun and will be completed by the mid-1990s; and (2)
major advances in research instruments (e.g., airborne Doppler
radar, multiparameter radars, millimeter wavelength radar) will
permit measurements of evolving storm-scale weather systems in
detail not available previously.  These opportunities and the
benefits from advances in scientific understanding have been
recognized by several Federal agencies.  An interagency
storm-scale research initiative began in FY 1992, with GEO taking
the lead for basic research studies.  This initiative -- the U.S.
Weather Research Program -- has been approved by the CEES
Subcommittee on Atmospheric Research and the CEES, and has been
presented to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).  The
program stems from seven years of planning for the Storm-scale
Operational and Research Meteorology (STORM) program.  At least
125 scientists have been involved in the planning and are
committed to participate.
The national observational system modernization, coupled with
improvements in specialized research equipment, provides the
foundation for the following elements of the NSF Storm-scale
Research Program:
Execution of a series of field experiments, beginning in FY 1992,
designed to increase fundamental understanding of storm-scale
phenomena with emphasis on investigating interactions between
various scales of the atmosphere ("scale interaction"
experiments);
Storm-scale numerical modeling research emphasizing incorporation
of key physical processes, four-dimensional data assimilation,
improved parameterizations, and development of advanced numerical
techniques to be pursued in parallel with the field programs;
Access for researchers and students to the improved operational
data stream and the computing power necessary to process and
analyze it;
Support of diagnostic studies of storm-scale phenomena using the
greatly expanded mesometeorological data base; and
Educational opportunities, which are essential to produce a
generation of meteorologists capable of fully exploiting these
new data systems and advancing the science.
This initiative will involve close collaboration among
universities, NCAR, and other Federal agencies and their
scientists.
Coastal Ocean Processes
The coastal ocean has special societal, scientific and policy
importance.  As the Nation's population shifts toward coastal
regions, the pressures on coastal margins continue to increase,
endangering living resources, habitats, natural protective
structures and, in turn, human populations.  Effective management
by federal, state and local agencies requires greatly enhanced
fundamental understanding of how weather, tides, currents,
sediment transport and biological production interact.  Although
GEO's Ocean Sciences Division has always supported individual
research projects in coastal oceanography as part of base
funding, the need for coordinated interdisciplinary studies to
address these complex relationships is increasing rapidly.
In 1991 the Subcommittee on Coastal Ocean Science was established
within the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences (CEES)
of FCCSET to coordinate federal activities in coastal sciences.
The CEES Subcommittee is preparing a Science Framework Document
(programs and priorities) with baseline historical information on
agencies and budgets, specifying future program development and
budget options.
As a contribution to interagency planning,  NSF has supported an
academic community planning activity (CoOP - Coastal Ocean
Processes) to identify the most important unanswered questions of
basic science within the coastal ocean in relation to societal
needs.  The report will be published shortly by the CoOP steering
committee.  NSF solicited proposals for an interdisciplinary
pilot study on selected topics within the coastal zone in FY
1991.  The Coastal Ocean program will develop to maturity over
the FY 1994-98 time frame.
Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment
In addition to the focused environmental priorities described
above, GEO is a major participant in the NSF-wide activities in
Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment, an effort designed
to provide fundamental scientific understanding across major
areas of environmental science, to develop and implement new
approaches to basic research on the environment, and to build
scientific infrastructure and human resource capability. This
evolving research activity, with participation by six research
Directorates, is responsive to the Nation's need to respond to
the increasing number of complex regional environmental problems,
which was a key criterion in selecting the areas of emphasis.
Other selection criteria used were science community interest and
readiness.  Toward achieving the goal of understanding complex
environmental systems, GEO plans to expand its support of the
following multidisciplinary research areas during the FY
1994-1998 time frame.
Arctic Environmental Research
Public, scientific, governmental and international concerns for
the well-being and protection of the Arctic are increasing.  The
Arctic is being exposed to increasing inputs of contaminants from
lower latitudes through atmospheric, marine and riverine
transport.  The spatial and temporal variability of contaminants,
their fates and effects, and the overall status and trends in the
quality of the arctic environment and the condition of the biota
are generally not well known.  Though conspicuous changes in
plant and animal distribution and standing stocks are being
reported in the scientific literature and popular press with
increasing frequency, it is often difficult to distinguish
between changes in the environment due to human-induced
activities and those resulting from natural variability.
Within the last ten years, the governments of the circumpolar
nations have become increasingly aware of the need, and their
responsibility, to combat these threats to the arctic ecosystem.
In June 1991, the United States and seven other arctic nations
signed the Declaration on the Protection of the Arctic
Environment.  U.S. agencies, in accord with this agreement,
propose to develop their contribution to the international Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP).  The GEO Arctic
Environmental Research initiative will contribute to and
coordinate with programs undertaken by ten other Federal agencies
through sponsorship of basic research that is highly
complementary to previously established NSF programs (including
Long-Term Ecological Research, Land-Margin Ecosystems Research,
Arctic System Science, and core programs in several other
Divisions).
As a start to developing this program, GEO will encourage
utilization of existing sites (Biosphere Reserves, LTER and other
long-term sites) and new, high latitude ecological and
environmental sites to establish a network of long-term
circumarctic sites and transects from which the magnitude and
timing of changes in the physical, biological and human
environments can be established and differentiated from natural
and anthropogenic causes. These permanent sites and transects
will be established across climatically sensitive ecotones and
environmental boundaries and gradients.  Research and observation
facilitated under this initiative will link space and in situ
observations.
While terrestrial environments will be emphasized, near-shore
oceanic environments will be included to achieve understanding of
the land-sea interface.  The Arctic Environmental Research effort
shares many  characteristics with NSF's ongoing research and will
be broadly and fully coordinated among investigators,
institutions and sponsoring agencies.  Research support will be
planned and committed for time periods of decades and longer.
This research initiative will:
provide a framework within which the use of data derived from
NSF-sponsored basic research, as well as other agency sponsored
assessment and monitoring of pollutants and disturbance, can be
optimized;
establish a quantitative baseline against which natural
variability and future changes can be evaluated;
allow early detection of biological and physical changes in the
environment;
serve as a basis for management, mitigation and preservation of
biodiversity (flora, fauna, and habitats);
develop more accurate predictive models of arctic variables and
establish the necessary information to develop those models; and
support U.S. international agreements.
Science planning and site selection will be undertaken in FY
1993, with initiation of the program planned for  FY 1994.
Environmental Geochemistry
Understanding the geochemistry of Earth's surface and
near-surface environments is critical for resolving many
environmental problems facing mankind in the coming decade.
These include the availability of adequate water supplies for
human consumption and for agricultural use, the closely related
problems of disposal of wastes and the fate of contaminants in
the crust, the productivity and fertility of soils, and the
maintenance and protection of the diverse resources and amenities
associated with coastal waters.  Of critical interest is an
understanding of the interactive biological, geological, chemical
and physical processes that control the cycling of elements,
nutrients and anthropogenic contaminants through the upper few
hundred meters of Earth's surface and from the land into the
ocean through rivers, groundwater, and the atmosphere.  Such a
multidisciplinary approach incorporates the full range of
parameters that characterize the surface environment.
Areas of research will emphasize new approaches in aqueous and
organic geochemistry, soil chemistry and biogenic degradation of
contaminants, detailed study of specific reactions on clay and
other mineral surfaces, ultra-precise measurements with
micrometer-scale resolution of the concentration of elements and
compounds, and in-depth investigations of the impact of
contaminants on the complex geological and biological systems
that characterize our estuarine and coastal regions.  New
advances in high resolution geochronology will be used to study
rates of reactions and residence times for key elements and
compounds in their passage through the biogeochemical cycles of
the environment.  Estimates of the flow of water across the
terrestrial/marine boundary and transformations and fates of
entrained materials in populous coastal regions are vital to the
effective control of potential environmental disasters impacting
both human populations and natural ecosystems.
The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences identified this area as
the highest priority research need for FY 1994-1998.  The
Division of Ocean Sciences and its Advisory Committee for Ocean
Sciences support activities in environmental geochemistry related
to the land/marine boundary.
Land-Use Geology
As human populations increase, there is an urgent need to manage
the use of the land and its resources in a manner that links
concern for the long term protection of the global environment
with sound economic practices.  The burgeoning growth places
considerable stress on existing areas of habitation, pushes the
exploitation of areas marginal for human livelihood, and
increases the dependence on available resources for agricultural
land.  Land use affects the planning of cities, the construction
of major projects, the safety of people and the distribution of
agricultural productivity.  Wise policies for the overall use of
the land must be secured on a base of scientific understanding of
the processes that control the character and evolution of the
Earth's surface.
Basic research is needed to understand the relative contributions
of natural versus anthropogenic activities and processes to
changes in the land's surface.  Such knowledge becomes the
essential reference for providing insights on how to plan the
distribution and type of land use.  Areas of emphasis will
include research on processes such as erosion and sedimentation,
desertification, and slope stability that affect the
geomorphological evolution and use of the land.  Recent
developments in the use of cosmogenic nuclides to date surfaces,
the use of satellite and airborne imagery to characterize
surfaces, and the availability of large computers to manipulate
large geographic databases promise rapid developments in new
understanding of the processes that govern geomorphic evolution.
A land-use initiative will be started in the Earth Sciences
Division in FY 1993 and will be enhanced to provide for the
rapidly expanding research needs expected in FY 1994 to 1998.
Stressed Coastal Ecosystems
Coral reefs are important resources, both economically and in
terms of biodiversity, and may be sensitive environmental
indicators, particularly for vulnerable coastal and shallow-water
regions of the tropics and sub-tropics.  The world's reef and
related ecosystems are in a declining state of health, and there
is need for a long-term scientific assessment of the problem.  A
workshop sponsored by NSF, NOAA and EPA concluded that GEO's
Ocean Sciences Division, with potential collaboration from other
GEO and Directorate for Biological Sciences Divisions, will
respond to this need by supporting research that contributes to
the understanding of reef systems and their responses to thermal
and other environmental stressors.
Increasing attention is also being paid to the phenomenon of
harmful algal blooms, which have been increasing in many U.S.
coastal regions as well as other parts of the world.  Toxic "red
tides" which directly poison fish and other marine life, and
intense phytoplankton blooms which die off and create anoxic
conditions in such areas as the Chesapeake Bay, appear to be on
the rise.  Workshops sponsored by intergovernmental organizations
implicate human activities in contaminating coastal areas, and
indicate the need to understand the complex chain of events in
order to abate them.
Integrated Regional Modeling
Human social and economic structures are shaped to a large extent
by the regional environment in which they exist.  Recent
attention to potentially significant changes to the global
environment caused by human activity emphasizes anew the lack of
understanding of the more obvious effects of these activities on
local and regional scales. The recent and projected growth of
metropolitan centers leads to megapolitan corridors altering
sizable fractions of continental surface areas, especially in the
watersheds of the continental margins.  More than two decades
ago, preliminary descriptions of urban heat island effects were
developed.  Some of the these effects include local atmospheric
circulation anomalies, elevated concentrations of atmospheric
pollutants, modification of the nuclei affecting cloud and
precipitation distributions, and alterations in the relative
probability of rain and snow and energy demand, acid rain,
episodes of elevated levels of ozone in rural areas, and
groundwater and estuarine water contamination.  Downstream of
these high population density regions, massive plumes of
anthropogenic gases and aerosols alter the physical and chemical
environment over even larger land and water surface areas.
The Integrated Regional Modeling activity will support a
systematic quantification of the anthropogenic effects on the
environment on a regional scale, by in situ and remote
measurements, both from advanced observational systems soon to be
deployed as part of other major research initiatives, and
regionally augmented observations.  Computer hardware and
software advances will allow integration and analysis of these
new data as well as historical data sets.  It is expected that
this initiative will include a detailed interdisciplinary
examination of the environment and the factors that control it in
selected sensitive regions of North America.  A mix of centers
(new and existing), groups, and individual investigator research
is planned.
Two key components of this initiative are atmospheric science and
landscape ecology of the watershed.  Atmospheric science elements
will include: (1) urban effects on regional weather and climate,
(2) process studies on regional air quality, (3)
biosphere-atmosphere exchanges and interactions, and (4) regional
changes wrought by past cultures.  Landscape ecology elements
will include (1) the effects of watershed development on the
transport and fate of atmospheric deposition within and through
the watershed, (2) watershed-atmosphere exchanges and
interactions, and (3) the effects of these interactions and
environmental quality.  These efforts should produce information
that will allow the development of predictive capabilities that
would help serve the needs of decisionmakers at the local,
regional and national level.  Initial planning will begin in FY
1992 with a workshop planned jointly by the Divisions of Social
and Economic Science, Environmental Biology, and Atmospheric
Sciences.  A program of research is planned to begin in FY 1993.
IV.  Disciplinary Programs
Disciplinary research programs, often referred to as the core
programs, are essential for gaining increased understanding of
phenomena in the geosciences.  Basic research funded through the
disciplinary programs provides the essential foundation for
special focused efforts such as Global Change and is necessary to
ensure the intellectual basis for addressing the environmental
problems of tomorrow.  During the next five years, GEO will
continue to strengthen the disciplinary base.
There are many examples of how sustained support of the core
disciplines has resulted in discoveries and applications of great
benefit to society.  For instance, twenty years of support for
basic research in atmospheric chemistry and meteorology, support
for the logistical network in the U.S. Antarctic Program, NASA
aircraft, and the National Scientific Balloon Facility provided
the foundation for discovery and unraveling the chemical
processes causing the antarctic ozone hole.
In 1977, NSF made an award supporting an investigator's
hypothesis that a meteorological phenomenon called a "microburst"
was the cause of certain fatal aircraft accidents.  Events that
followed this initial award led to the development of an
operational microburst detection system that is now saving
aircraft.  Other examples include twenty years of support for El
Nino studies leading to the development of forecasting capability
for this important factor in worldwide climate variations, and
the importance of the NSF investment in basic seismic research
and facilities in anticipating months in advance Loma Prieta,
California as a possible site for an earthquake in 1989, and for
mounting a rapid response to that event.
Disciplinary and multidisciplinary activities supported by the
core programs are described in the sections below.  No attempt is
made here to fully describe the diversity of research supported
by the core.  Such descriptions can be found in each GEO
Division's long range plans.
Atmospheric Sciences
Atmospheric sciences builds on the knowledge of physics,
chemistry, mathematics, and other sciences to study the physics
and chemistry of Earth's atmosphere and its response to solar,
geospace, and terrestrial processes.   This research is necessary
to improve understanding and prediction of climate, weather, and
the global environmental system.  In view of the scales and
complexities of atmospheric phenomena, much of the supported
research involves large, organized observational programs.
Much of our present knowledge of the integrated Sun-Earth system
is based on discoveries made by individual scientists working on
self-contained problems.  Based on this foundation, global
campaigns that require national and international coordination
are mounted.  These focused projects, or community initiatives,
must be accompanied by support for the scientific opportunities
emerging in broadly-based research programs.
The NSF Advisory Committee for Atmospheric Sciences (ACAS)
reviewed in detail fourteen broad community initiatives and
nearly twenty base initiatives for disciplinary research proposed
by NSF and NCAR staff members and ACAS members.  The highest
ranked community initiative outside of global change is the NSF
Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (NSF-STEP).  The base
initiatives of highest scientific potential recommended for
expanded support are Cloud Physics, Middle Atmosphere Science,
Prediction, Climate, Geospace Laboratory and Solar Physics.
 NSF Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program (NSF-STEP)
STEP is an international program established under ICSU for the
1990-1997 time frame.  The key theme of NSF-STEP is to understand
the global integration and large-scale coupling of the Sun to
Earth's atmosphere through basic research into micro-meso-macro
scale physics using ground-based observations, which for certain
parameters can be more effective than observations from
spacecraft.  NSF-STEP promises to be an important catalyst for
basic research in solar-terrestrial science, leveraging through
STEP an international investment of over $3 billion worldwide
over the coming decade.
The NSF-STEP initiative provides a scientific focus and
internationally-based framework for several solar-terrestrial
research activities which are important to Earth system science
in general.  Close ties to GEO's global change programs will be
maintained (especially CEDAR, GEM and SunRISE) although the focus
is on science projects not overlapping global change.
 Cloud Physics
Studying the role of clouds in global climate and understanding
hydrological processes are high priority GEO objectives.
Fundamental cloud physics research will be required to achieve
those objectives.  In particular, nucleation, or the process
involved in the development of the nuclei of cloud droplets, is
perhaps the most crucial process in the atmospheric water cycle.
Recent progress in understanding nucleation involving the water
phase has been encouraging.  Ice nucleation, however, is little
understood; there is no acceptable method of measurement, hence
little observational knowledge and no theoretical predictive
capability.  In addition, the growth of cloud droplets through
coalescence, i.e., droplet collision and capture, is not well
modeled.
During FY 1994-1998, the Atmospheric Sciences Division will
support intensive laboratory and field experiments, as well as
research to develop theories and models to explain: (1) the
initiation of coalescence, and (2) ice generation or nucleation.
Laboratory facilities (large controlled chambers and cloud
tunnels), new instruments (ice nucleus counters), and further
improvements in airborne cloud physics measurements (in situ and
remote) will also be considered for support under this research
activity.
 Middle Atmosphere Research
The Atmospheric Sciences Division gives high priority to
improving the understanding of the composition and structure of
the middle atmosphere, which is determined by complex
relationships among the chemical, dynamical, and radiation
properties.  Understanding these relationships over a wide range
of latitudes and altitudes requires the application and
development of a variety of new observational and laboratory
techniques and the development of specialized models for
investigating different phenomena in the middle atmosphere.
Atmospheric Sciences plans to support research in this area
during FY 1994-1998, including: the exchange of gases, momentum
and energy between the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere;
the mechanisms controlling the dynamics of the middle atmosphere;
the chemical and physical processes responsible for ozone loss,
especially at high latitudes; the importance of heterogeneous
chemical processes in the middle atmosphere; and the radiation
balance of this region of the atmosphere.
The scientific interest in the middle atmosphere is quite high
due to the recent recognition that: 1) significant changes in the
composition, temperature, and cloudiness of the middle atmosphere
are now occurring; and 2) heterogeneous processes can play an
important role in stratospheric ozone depletion and other
chemical processes.  A variety of new ground-based and
space-based techniques are now becoming available to observe and
study this region of the atmosphere in a comprehensive manner
that previously was not possible.  Continuing advances in
computer power enable more realistic model simulations of the
middle atmosphere and better understanding of theoretical
concepts, and the new observational data will help to refine
these models and permit their coupling to GCMs and upper
atmospheric models.
 Prediction
The ultimate goal of any scientific endeavor is to predict the
phenomenon in question.  Reliable predictions of atmospheric
motion, on both weather and climate time scales, are particularly
critical because of the societal and policy implications.
Beginning in FY 1994, the Division of Atmospheric Sciences will
increase research support to address two outstanding problems in
tropospheric and stratospheric prediction: application of
nonlinear dynamic systems theory to atmospheric fluid flow and
improved numerical simulation of the tropical atmosphere.
From nonlinear dynamical systems research has come a branch of
physical-statistical theory that is applicable to atmospheric
motions at many scales, from turbulence to climate.  This is the
so-called "chaos theory."  The degree to which chaos theory can
be applied to the atmosphere must be ascertained.  Support for
both theoretical and analytical studies in this area will be
expanded.  Cross-disciplinary research collaboration with
investigators with complementary expertise in physics,
statistics, and mathematics will also be encouraged.
Quasi-periodic atmospheric motions in the tropics, both
intraseasonal and seasonal, and related forcing of the
extratropical circulation have been documented, but their
accurate numerical simulation and prediction remain elusive.
Atmospheric Sciences plans to expand support in three research
areas beginning in FY 1994:  (1) In-depth analysis of basic
tropical structure and dynamics using newly available global data
sets, (2) research on ways to incorporate new insights into
physical processes into numerical models, and (3) research on
data assimilation techniques that can maximize information
extracted from tropical observations from new observing systems.
 Terrestrial Paleoenvironments
In FY 1994, a multidisciplinary and international program is
planned, to retrieve, analyze and interpret a broad series of
terrestrial climatic records.  Programs of drilling and coring in
the world's oceans and ice sheets are continuing to provide the
physical evidence that constrain and verify global climate
models.  However, terrestrial sources of paleoclimate data have
not been fully developed and are now required for the full
appreciation of the scale of temporal and spatial climatic
variability.  Rich in biologic materials, the terrestrial
paleoclimatic records are sensitive to changes in regional
physical environments.  Such records of the biosphere's response
to long-term climate change are critical to our ability to
understand the coupled processes that have influenced past
environmental changes.  The program will be managed in
collaboration with other paleoenvironmental activities in GEO and
in the Directorates for Biological Sciences and Social,
Behavioral and Economic Sciences.
 Geospace Laboratory
Future studies of geospace will involve increased support for
laboratory-style parameter control of one or more key plasma
variables -- whether the "laboratory" is Earth-based or part of a
geospace laboratory-without-walls.  Future "laboratory" studies
will emphasize ionospheric modification, studies of comparative
planetary environments, numerical simulations, and laboratory
plasma experiments.
Ionospheric modification provides for selected perturbations of
the ionosphere by using special heating facilities (e.g., via the
Arecibo Observatory).  The study of comparative planetary
environments will focus on ground-based observations of cometary
and planetary processes aimed at understanding our own upper
atmosphere.  Laboratory plasma experiments would involve the use
of large facilities constructed primarily with DOE and DOD
support to provide tests of conditions relevant to the geospace
environment.  Laboratory experiments will also be carried out to
determine key atomic and molecular data essential for aeronomy.
New and innovative approaches to numerical simulations will also
be pursued.
 Solar Physics
The Sun is the principal driver of dynamical phenomena in the
atmospheric and geospace environment. Increased emphasis in solar
physics will be given to the nature of solar variability and the
resultant terrestrial response.  Solar variability, emphasized
dramatically by flares, is not well understood, particularly
below the photosphere. Yet, in all its forms, outstanding
problems exist from the base of the convection zone, through the
photosphere, chromosphere, and corona, and into the solar wind,
where interactions with the Earth occur. These are manifested in
such diverse phenomena, for example, as changes in satellite
drag, interference with radio communications, disruption to power
lines and modification to the Earth's climate over long time
scales.  At present, there are large uncertainties about the
contribution of solar irradiance variations to global change.
Questions to receive emphasis during FY 1994-1998 will be:  How
does solar variability manifest itself in the terrestrial
atmosphere?  What is the nature of solar activity?  Properly
subtracting this contribution of solar variability from the
climate record is critical for determining human-induced changes
during the present epoch.
Earth Sciences
Earth Sciences programs support a full range of research
conducted by individual investigators, groups and consortia that
is essential to the intellectual strength and vitality of the
discipline.  In order to understand the fundamental processes
that govern the distribution of natural water, energy, and
mineral resources, the safe disposal of toxic wastes, the
occurrence and impact of natural hazards from earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions and landslides, and the responsible use of
land in major population centers, it is essential to enhance the
technical and scientific capability of earth scientists.
Scientific thrusts that include multidisciplinary efforts, such
as Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials (PACEM), Active
Tectonics, and Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior (SEDI), are
described below.  The Division also participates in other federal
programs, such as the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction
Program (NEHRP), the International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction (IDNDR), and the Continental Scientific Drilling
Project (CSDP).
Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials (PACEM)
The processes that determine the distribution and transport of
matter and energy within the Earth are controlled by the physical
and chemical properties and behavior of its component materials.
Thus, the study of materials under the extreme conditions that
exist in the interior of the Earth, and the characterization of
rocks and minerals at ultra-high levels of sensitivity with
micrometer scale resolution, is essential to understanding how
the Earth works.  Recent advances in synchrotron radiation
sources, ultra-high pressure diamond cells and multianvil
presses, and ultra-sensitive mass spectrometry now provide the
technological tools for achieving these goals.  Funding for this
activity during the period FY 1994 through 1998 will support
research projects using the expanded base of capabilities already
available as well as instrumentation at the new synchrotron X-ray
sources.
Active Tectonics
The most direct approach to the study of tectonic processes is to
focus studies in areas where deformational processes are
currently active.  These regions are best studied in the field at
such plate boundary locations as zones of continental collision,
strike slip faulting and major crustal extension.  This requires
a broad multidisciplinary approach that uses the tools of
geology, geophysics and geochemistry to monitor the changing
stress fields, fluid pressure regimes, strain rates and evolving
thermal structures as the mobile tectonic plates respond to
deeper mantle convective forces.
The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences gave strong support for
enhanced regional studies at field laboratories in active
tectonic areas.  Such regions are the locale for major
earthquakes, landslides and crustal instabilities, subsidence and
coastal flooding, and explosive volcanism.  Improvements in basic
understanding will help in creating realistic models that will
become the basis for improved prediction of natural disasters
associated with tectonic forces.  Enhancement of
multidisciplinary studies of active tectonic regions is planned
in the 1994-1998 time frame.
Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior (SEDI)
Understanding the deep interior of the Earth is the key to
explaining critically important phenomena such as the geomagnetic
field, the motion of tectonic plates, the origin of volcanism,
mantle plumes and deep-seated earthquakes, and the shape of the
Earth and its rotational characteristics.  Advances in present
techniques such as ground-based and satellite measurements of
gravity and magnetic fields, satellite geodesy, seismic
tomography, isotope tracer mapping, ultra-high pressure research,
and supercomputer modeling, promise a new understanding of the
dynamic interactions between the core, mantle and crust.  Meeting
the challenge of these problems will require mobilizing expertise
from a wide range of disciplines including computer science and
applied mathematics, geomagnetics, geodesy, geochemistry, and
high-pressure physics.  Scientists working together using data
sets from a variety of observational methods and computational
techniques will be supported.
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)
As part of the U.S. program for IDNDR, the U.S. National
Committee for the Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (NAS/NRC)
is currently examining the research agenda related to
understanding the causes of natural hazards as a basis for
improving strategies to mitigate their adverse effects.  In the
earth sciences, natural hazards that affect human populations
include earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides.  The
ability to predict, prevent, and mitigate such hazards depends
heavily on basic research in earth sciences.  With the increasing
concentration of human populations in geologic environments where
tectonic forces are most active, the impact of geologic forces
will become more severe.  Seismic networks supported by GEO,
geophysical instrumentation, and scientists are becoming more
important in this area, and increasing demands for hazard-related
research -- both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world --  will
have to be met.  This is an area where international scientific
collaboration is expected to become increasingly important during
the FY 1994-1998 planning period.  To provide a resource for
academic earth scientists to participate in the IDNDR, support
for research on geologic hazards will be increased during the
latter part of the five-year planning period.
Ocean Sciences
The Ocean Sciences Division supports regional research programs
in physics, chemistry, geology and geophysics, and biology of the
major ocean basins and adjacent seas, estuaries and large lakes.
Physical Oceanography is concerned with applying observational,
theoretical, and numerical modeling techniques to understand the
circulation of these water bodies, including studies of their
physical properties; their forcing by the atmospheric fluxes of
momentum, heat, and moisture; and mixing by meso- and small-scale
turbulence.
Marine Geology and Geophysics focuses on the composition and
evolution of oceanic crust, deep ocean basins, and continental
margins; the distribution, composition, and history of
terrigenous and biogenic sediments on the sea floor; and the
history of the oceans and past climates.
Chemical Oceanography supports research on processes affecting
the chemistry of ocean waters and sediments and how the oceans
respond to perturbation.  Investigators supported by this program
study the supply, transport, and removal rates of chemical
compounds, as well as how and how fast they are altered.
Biological Oceanography supports studies on the relationships
among marine organisms and the interaction of these organisms
with geochemical and physical processes.  The central focus of
this program is to understand ecological systems ranging from the
ocean margins and continental shelves to central gyres and ocean
basins.
These core research programs provide vital basic knowledge about
the oceans and the seeds from which larger community initiatives
have grown.  In addition, a significant portion of core research
contributes directly to the goals of GEO's global change
programs.  Community initiatives that have emerged recently or
that continue to be sponsored by the core programs are the Ocean
Drilling Program, Marine Biotechnology, Oceanographic Technology
Development, Cooperative Research on the Mid-Ocean Ridgecrest
System, and Continental Margins.  These are described below.
Ocean Drilling Program
The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) is a multinational program of
basic scientific research that uses drilling and logging to
improve  understanding of the physical, chemical and biological
processes that determine the geological history, structure and
evolution of the oceanic lithosphere (sediments and crust).
Membership in the ODP is governed by Memoranda of Understanding
(MOU) between the NSF and international partners.  Presently six
international partners representing 18 nations are regular
members.  The MOU identifies the financial contribution of the
partner and guarantees the partner full participation in ODP
planning, access to data and results, and participation in
drilling cruises.
The final phase of the Ocean Drilling Program (1994-2003) is
based on the scientific and technical requirements in the Long
Range Plan for Ocean Drilling.  The basic framework for the long
range plan was developed at an international conference attended
by more than 300 scientists from 25 nations.  Four major science
themes will guide drilling and provide scientific and technical
priorities.  These are:
Mechanisms controlling changes in ocean and climate systems over
geologic time --  including the history of sea level, changes in
the carbon cycle and productivity, and the evolution of marine
biota;
Structure and composition of the crust and upper mantle -- to
quantify geochemical flux between the mantle and crust and to
determine the composition and heterogeneity of the underlying
mantle;
The dynamics and deformation of the lithosphere -- to examine the
driving forces of plate tectonics and their effect on continental
margins; and
The circulation of fluids through sedimentary and crustal rocks
-- which contribute to global geochemical cycling and influence
the formation of mineral and petroleum deposits.
Each of these themes will require significant developments in the
technology base, including the ability to drill and log deep
holes in the high temperature regimes, recovery of undisturbed
cores and fluid samples in deep sedimentary sections, and
deployment of sampling and monitoring instruments for time-series
measurements of crustal and sedimentary processes.
Major emphasis and resources in  FY 1994-1998 will focus on
adapting mining drilling techniques and tools for use aboard the
drillship JOIDES Resolution to study mid-ocean ridges.
Engineering development will concentrate on improved deep
sedimentary drilling including techniques to improve hole
stability and recovery of sand units in continental margin
environments.  Recently developed techniques for post-drilling
reentry of boreholes provide capability to replace and retrieve
time-series experiments to measure crustal strain, seismicity,
fluid flow and geochemistry.
The Ocean Drilling Program science objectives interact strongly
with other earth sciences and global change research initiatives.
Critical samples and data for several of these programs can only
be obtained through the ODP.  Formal liaison and integration of
ODP experiments with the Global Seismic Network, the U.S. Global
Change Research Program and INTERRIDGE (a study of the global
midocean ridge system) have been established and will expand
during the 1990s.
Marine Biotechnology
A biotechnology thrust is focused on developing the human
resources needed to apply the advanced technologies of modern
biological sciences to problems in marine ecology, marine
biodiversity, and the economic application of marine biota.  A
postdoctoral fellowship program was established, and individual
research projects were initiated to begin applying
biotechnologies to ocean systems.  In 1991, Ocean Sciences
participated in an NSF-wide working group to plan a major
biotechnology initiative to contribute to a new FCCSET activity
in this area following the Report on National Biotechnology
Policy of the President's Council on Competitiveness.  The new
thrust will be in the direction of using living organisms to make
or modify products, improve plants or animals, develop
microorganisms for specific uses and develop materials that mimic
the structure or function of living systems.  There is a vast
range of genetic diversity within the marine environment with the
potential for biotechnology applications, particularly in the
areas of bioprocessing and bioconversion, biomolecular materials,
and environmental and medical applications.
Oceanographic Technology Development
Ocean science research continues to evolve and advance in all its
component disciplines.  New disciplinary research programs need
continued and expanded instrumentation development; in situ
sampling and measurement systems, including autonomous remote
self-contained units; data management; and new observing systems.
A common theme for the Global Change program is the introduction
of critical new technologies.
Chemical, biological and many physical process studies rely on in
situ sampling to obtain fluid samples for laboratory analysis.
Increasing sophistication and automation, both in measurement
techniques and especially in communication technology, provides
opportunities for largely unattended in situ sampling of both
physical and biological parameters.  New systems are required to
take measurements directly in the ocean or at some distance from
the sensor and either store the data for later recovery or
communicate data to ships or shore laboratories by various means,
including satellites, to meet the research goals of ocean
sciences.  The new techniques and technology must provide
coverage that will allow biological and chemical parameters to be
sampled at the same space and time scales as physical variables.
This ocean sciences technology development will range from
autonomous underwater vehicles and new "smart" moorings, to new
systems for biochemical measurements such as bio-optics and
bioacoustics.  Continued development of lower-cost but precise
instruments and expendable systems are an important component of
the plan.  To address identified critical needs, increased
emphasis and resources in the FY 1994-1998 time frame will
support an expanded and comprehensive program for ocean science
technology development.
Cooperative Research on the Mid-Ocean Ridgecrest System
The goal of this program is to understand the physical, chemical,
and biological causes and consequences of the energy transfer
through time and space between the global midocean ridge volcanic
system and the ocean environment.  The RIDGE Initial Science
Plan, released in February 1989, together with the 1989 Working
Group Report, detail the objectives and strategies of the
program.  The RIDGE program is divided between the Global Change
Program and disciplinary geosciences.  The primary objectives of
RIDGE relative to disciplinary geosciences are to quantify the
generation and transport of molten magma beneath the ridge system
and the transformation of the magma into oceanic crust, to
understand how volcanic systems sustain life in the presence of
liquid water, and to understand the linkages of these biological
systems to ore deposits.  RIDGE began work in 1991-1992 on
several program elements that will continue during the planning
period:  field work on the East Pacific Rise and the Mid-Atlantic
Ridge; developing the capability to detect and respond to
ridgecrest events such as earthquakes, eruptions, and
hydrothermal plumes; technology and instrument development aimed
at enhancing geophysical, geochemical and biological
observational capabilities and at establishing long-term
observatories; and measurements of thermodynamic and physical
properties of relevant materials.
Continental Margins
The primary goal of this program is to develop an understanding
of the physical processes that control the initiation, evolution,
and destruction of continental margins.  To fulfill these
objectives, it is necessary to investigate both deep and shallow
structure of continental margins and the origin and effects of
margin fluids.
The deep crustal studies include:  (1) the mechanics of
lithospheric deformation, (2) magmatism and mass transfer, and
(3) the development of sedimentary basins.  The shallow crustal
studies include:  (1) the processes affecting sediment transfer
along and across the margins, (2) the effects of physical,
chemical and biological processes on the preserved sedimentary
record, and (3) the detailed history of Earth's environment
recorded in margin sediments and the relationship of this record
to the geophysical character of the margins.  Fluid studies
include:  (1) the role of fluids in controlling geochemical
alteration of margin sediments and organic matter, (2) the role
of fluids in controlling stress distribution in sedimentary
prisms, and (3) the impact of expelled margin fluids on chemical
cycling in the oceans.
National Academy of Sciences workshops held in 1988 and 1991
outlined the program and focused on the mechanics of crustal
deformation.  Planning for specific deformation experiments will
begin in FY 1992 with the first field work planned for FY 1993.
Workshops to define specific objectives for studies of magmatism
and sedimentary and fluid components will be held in 1992 and
1993.
The program has significant linkages with the Coastal Ocean
Processes activity, the Ocean Drilling Program, the Earth System
History component of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and
the Continental Dynamics program of the Earth Sciences Division,
and will provide the fundamental knowledge for planning and
interpreting future ocean drilling on continental margins.
Polar Programs
The responsibilities of the Division of Polar Programs (DPP) are
defined geographically rather than by scientific discipline.
Polar Programs funds and manages U.S. research programs in
Antarctica and its surrounding ocean and shares responsibility
with other NSF Divisions for research in the Arctic.  Polar
Programs supports research through six science programs:  Polar
Aeronomy and Astrophysics, Polar Biology and Medicine, Polar
Earth Sciences, Polar Ocean and Climate Systems, Glaciology, and
Arctic Social Sciences.
In addition to global change research, Polar Programs supports a
wide array of research projects that take advantage of unique
qualities of the polar regions.  Some of these are outside the
normal scope of the Directorate for Geosciences (e.g.,
astrophysics and terrestrial and freshwater ecology).
Ship-Supported Research
In April 1992, the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer, a 308-ft research
vessel with icebreaking capabilities, began service in the U.S.
Antarctic Program.  This vessel allows an off-season expansion of
research into geographical areas previously unavailable to the
U.S. scientific community.  The ship expands significantly the
ability to support sophisticated scientific instrumentation, and
introduces improved and larger working spaces, laboratories,
communications, and equipment handling capabilities.
In conjunction with the R/V Polar Duke, DPP-supported research
will include the biological structure and processes of ecosystems
on scales ranging from the microenvironment of  individual
organism to the macroenvironment of populations and communities.
Emphases will relate to winter survival strategies, high
resolution of multi-year biological dynamics, and nutrient and
particulate fluxes.  Physical and chemical oceanography will
include study of the three-dimensional fluxes of mass, heat,
dissolved chemicals and gases, and distributed trace matter,
particularly in winter when the formation of sea ice affects the
vertical stability of the surface layers.
Other research supported will include marine geology and
geophysics and sea ice dynamics, including study of the material
characteristics of sea ice both at the individual crystal level
and its large-scale pattern of freezing, deformation, and
melting, which has implications for atmospheric and oceanic
climate.
Astrophysics
Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station is the driest inhabited spot on
Earth with the exception of Vostok, a Soviet antarctic station.
Since water vapor constitutes the greatest source of noise and
opacity for receiving electromagnetic signals from space over the
infrared to the millimeter wavelengths of the electromagnetic
spectrum, the dryness is of considerable importance to some
observers.  At certain wavelengths, state-of-the-art detectors
operating at the South Pole are limited by detector noise rather
than atmospheric noise.  For these detectors, the site is as good
as a spacecraft.  In the radio frequency portion of the spectrum,
the site is also quiet, except for controllable local sources.
The Science and Technology Center for Astrophysical Research in
Antarctica (CARA), which takes advantage of these
characteristics, was established in FY 1991.
Researchers have expressed great interest in studies of cosmic
microwave radiation background anisotropies, but topics such as
interstellar molecular cloud composition, star formation,
galactic dynamics, and the growth of structure in the universe
are also well suited to be investigated from the South Pole.
Studies of interstellar molecules and stratospheric molecules
have many similarities.  Both kinds of measurements can be made
with the same apparatus in certain cases.
A January 1992 test at South Pole has confirmed that ice at a
depth of 800 meters is transparent at distances of tens of meters
and full of natural radioactivity.  This raises the prospect of
using the ice as an enormous particle detector, thus greatly
opening up the field of neutrino astronomy.
Polar Programs plans an expansion of solar and astrophysical
research through ground- and balloon-based research programs from
FY 1994-1998.
Upper Atmospheric Studies
In order to supplement the data-collecting capacity of the
permanently manned antarctic stations, Polar Programs is
supporting the development of Automatic Geophysical Observatories
(AGOs).  The unmanned observatories will house and power a
variety of instruments and handle the data they collect.
Functioning as "satellites on the snow," the unmanned
observatories will be particularly well suited for correlative
measurements with polar orbiting satellites.  They will be
capable of storing large amounts of data on site and transmitting
low resolution data via satellite to investigators, and will
collect data relevant to a number of outstanding problems in
upper atmospheric physics.  Together with certain of the manned
stations, the arrays will be able to provide continuous and full
optical coverage of the dark polar cap ionosphere.  They will
also facilitate studies aimed at understanding auroral morphology
and dynamics, ionospheric currents, waves and wave-particle
interactions, and energetic particle precipitation effects.
Given its value to the broader community of atmospheric
scientists, the AGO program is coordinated with the Atmospheric
Sciences.  Although the AGO program will benefit space physicists
initially, such facilities should prove valuable to others as
well.  The observatories should be adaptable, for example, to the
needs of fields such as seismology and atmospheric chemistry.
Instrumentation development will be carried out within the time
frame of this plan.
Earth Sciences in Polar Regions
Earth sciences research in polar regions is directed towards an
improved understanding of the  geologic processes manifested in
polar areas that impact Earth's environmental systems.  Selected
aspects of the geologic structure, composition and evolution of
the antarctic continent and adjacent continental margins, of the
arctic basin and adjacent continental margins and land masses,
and of the sedimentary basins in both polar regions are
significant indicators of the Earth's evolution.  Determination
of polar continental structure and tectonic history is one of
several goals of this program. Approaches include exploration and
earthquake seismology, structural and regional geology,
paleomagnetics, geochronology and the modeling of geophysical
processes and ice sheet history.
Clarification of the tectonic history of Antarctica and its role
in the assembly and breakup of the Gondwanaland supercontinent
will require the continuing collaborative effort of continental
and marine geophysicists.  The continent's crustal structure at
selected representative locations needs to be determined, to
delineate the microplates and rifts that characterize West
Antarctica and to develop a better understanding of the complex
structural relationships between East and West Antarctica.  The
uplift history of the Transantarctic Mountains and its influence
on the development and fluctuations of the antarctic ice sheet
has global-scale climatic and associated sedimentological
implications.
In the circumarctic regions, a key objective is the retrieval,
analysis and interpretation of proxy paleoclimatic data sets.
The Polar Earth Sciences Program also supports basic research
into low temperature physical, chemical and geologic processes
active at or near the surface.  Geophysical studies focus on
delineating the characteristics of key crustal elements,
especially the continental margins, and on the analysis of
seismic data to improve our ability to locate plate boundaries
and understand their evolution and geodynamic importance.
In FY 1992, a multi-university team of investigators executed the
first coordinated geophysical probing of large regions of
Antarctica using aerogeophysics.  A Twin Otter carrying a
magnetometer, gravity meter, altimeters and radars remotely
probed the physical make-up of regions in Byrd Basin, the deepest
subglacial basin in the world.
Ice Dynamics and Ice Coring for Paleoclimatic Record
The value of ice coring in the Arctic to obtain climatic and
atmospheric records from ice sheets is discussed in the Arctic
System Science section of this Long Range Plan (pages 21-23).
Complementary efforts have been undertaken in the past in the
Antarctic and will be expanded in the future to aid in improving
our understanding of global climate change over the past 200,000
years.
The goal of studies of ice dynamics is a more complete
understanding of the physical processes involved in discharges
from large polar ice sheets, the deformation history recorded in
ice cores, the coupling of ice streams to floating ice shelves,
the surging of glaciers, and the relationship of basal processes
to fast glacier flow.  The recognition that accelerated glacial
discharge could result in rising sea level provides an impetus
for studying the physical processes responsible for fast glacier
flow.  We also need to understand the processes that caused ice
sheets to wax and wane in the geologic past in order to interpret
the glacial-geologic as well as the climatic record stored in ice
and ocean cores.
Concern over global climate change and changing sea level calls
for a concerted appraisal of the marine ice sheets (those
grounded well below sea level).  The marine ice sheets possess
inherent instability, and their fast flowing internal ice streams
have the capacity to disperse their ice rapidly into the
surrounding oceans, resulting in ice-sheet "collapse."  It needs
to be determined whether the atmospheric and oceanographic
changes involved in climate warming are coupled to the ice sheets
in a way that could cause such collapse.  Assessing the future
behavior of the ice sheets requires consideration of the coupled
ice-atmosphere-ocean-lithosphere system because the ice sheets
are active participants in the global climate regime and can
influence climate as well as respond to it.  Rapid changes
recently observed to be occurring in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
indicate possible instability, and spur an urgent effort to
understand the coupled system so as to predict its future
behavior.  Research efforts in ice dynamics are planned to grow
significantly through FY 1996.
Social Sciences Research in the Arctic
Despite its harsh climate and forbidding landscape, the Arctic is
home to a variety of indigenous populations with distinctive
cultural traditions.  Highly adapted to the polar environment and
dependent on its natural resources for survival, most arctic
societies were isolated from modernizing influences well into the
20th century.  The introduction of technological innovations and
the large-scale exploitation of resources have wrought
wide-ranging changes in both the small-scale communities of the
Arctic and the environment in which they subsist.  The Arctic
thus offers a unique laboratory for the study of human adaptation
and the effects of human activity on ecosystems that are
particularly sensitive to disturbance, issues relevant to our
understanding of the environmental and social effects of
long-term climate change.
Support for basic research is provided for a wide variety of
fields, including anthropology, archaeology, sociology,
economics, law, history, political science and education.
Interdisciplinary research and comparative studies are essential
to the development of a better understanding of the changing
nature of human adaptation in the Arctic.  Interdisciplinary
themes of particular concern are:  rapid social change, community
viability, and human/environment interactions, including issues
relating to subsistence, sustainable development and global
change.  The Arctic Social Sciences Program, working closely with
the social sciences programs in the Directorate for Social,
Behavioral and Economic Sciences, was initiated in FY 1991.
V.  Capital Facilities and Instrumentation
Research in the geosciences, particularly field programs, involve
airborne campaigns to study atmospheric chemistry and storm
phenomena, cruises to sample ocean properties, ocean drilling,
global and regional seismic arrays.  This range of research
activities, often undertaken in remote regions, dictates a major
capital investment.  Major additions and upgrades to GEO
facilities and new instrumentation are required to carry out the
research activities described above.  An internal survey
indicates that the capital equipment need for GEO, including the
U.S. Antarctic Program, is roughly $1,200 million from 1991 until
the end of the century.
For the period FY 1994-1998, major high priority capital
equipment needs are:
instrumentation for seismic studies and research on the physics
and chemistry of earth materials;
Replacement and upgrades of aircraft for use in atmospheric
sciences programs and the U.S. Antarctic Program;
an ice-capable research vessel for use in the Arctic;
upgrades to older research vessels and new drilling and logging
tools for the Ocean Drilling Program;
a new supercomputer for the atmospheric sciences; and
construction of a new South Pole Station.
Methods for financing such capital needs include: (1) outright
purchase in a single fiscal year; (2) costs distributed over
several years; (3) long-term leases or use of bonds; (4)
increasing matching requirements of grantee/contractor; (5)
contributions from private sources, foundations, industry; and
(6) use of interagency or international mechanisms for
cost-sharing.
GEO has used innovative methods to finance its capital equipment
requirements.  GEO will continue to pursue ways of leveraging
funds; however, even with creative financing, the incremental
funding required for critical major capital items, such as ships,
aircraft, and supercomputers, is often too large for a Division
budget.
During FY 1994-1998, GEO's ability to support its high priority
science programs, such as Global Change (especially ARCSS), the
U.S. Weather Research Program, Coastal Ocean Processes, and
Continental Dynamics, will be severely hampered unless large
capital equipment items are replaced or upgraded.  To address
this critical problem, GEO plans to establish a phased Facilities
and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program.  Funds to begin
this Program are in the FY 1993 Budget Request.
Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program
Five categories of major capital equipment are addressed by GEO's
Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program:
aircraft replacement and upgrades, seismic facilities, major
earth materials research facilities, ship replacement and
upgrades, and a supercomputer.  These constitute the highest
priority capital equipment requirements for GEO.  The phasing of
their acquisition will be determined by several factors,
including available resources, relative state of need, and
occurrence of favorable acquisition opportunities. The Program
will be managed at the Directorate level, and allocated in
different years to the major capital equipment needs.  The
capital equipment program will not be used for operations and
maintenance costs; these costs will be met by Division base
programs.  Although GEO will continue to pursue other financing
plans, the resources in the new program will result in
significant cost savings as the Government will avoid the extra
costs incurred by long-term purchase arrangements.  Equally
important, scientists can plan more effectively knowing that
funding for required facilities is in place.
Aircraft Replacement and Upgrades
A high altitude research aircraft and modernization of existing
research-instrumented aircraft are needed to meet GEO's
contribution to the Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program (GTCP)
and the Role of Clouds, Energy and Water (ROCEW), both global
change programs, as well as for research in atmospheric
chemistry, climate and climate-coupled systems, and storm-scale
meteorology.  The NCAR Sabreliner, acquired in 1969, cannot meet
these needs and a replacement is planned beginning in FY 1993.
Research characteristics requiring such an aircraft are: (1)
multi-investigator programs spanning large regions or conducted
in remote locations or over the ocean; (2) chemical measurements
at high altitudes in the upper troposphere and lower
stratosphere; (3) high-altitude measurements for verification of
satellite or ground-based remote sensors; (4) large payloads
consistent with carrying heavy remote-sensing systems; (5)
ability to fly in close proximity to strong convection; and (6)
high-altitude, high-speed, and long-endurance capabilities for
coverage of extended cloud systems.  An ideal aircraft would be a
mid-size, long-range, high-performance jet capable of carrying
5,000 pounds (with full fuel), with a range of 4,000 nautical
miles, endurance greater than nine hours, and the ability to
operate at an altitude of approximately 50,000 feet.
Seismic  Facilities
The Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS)
program of seismographic facilities, including the Global Seismic
Network (GSN) and the Program for Array Seismic Studies of the
Continental Lithosphere (PASSCAL) Portable Seismic Array, are
necessary to achieve the goals of the Geodynamics, NEHRP, IDNHR,
and Continental Dynamics programs and provide basic data bases
for detailed studies of the structure of the Earth.  The GSN and
PASSCAL facilities, begun in 1989, have had extremely successful
development phases, but acquisition and deployment of instruments
has been slow.  Through the GEO Recapitalization Program,
acquisition of seismic instrumentation will be completed during
FY 1993-1996, with the cooperation of the international
community.
The GSN will consist of about 100 broadband, digital, wide
dynamic range seismic stations with real-time data telemetering
capabilities.  Utilizing compact microprocessors, the instruments
are capable of recording three-component motions from earthquakes
over varying bandwidths set by digital filters within a frequency
band of 0.001-20 Hz.  These characteristics ensure that the
records contain all of the amplitude and waveform information
essential for analysis of earthquake sources and global-scale
structure.  A global network of such versatile geophysical
observatories will constitute an extremely powerful tool for
addressing a large number of fundamental problems.  About 25
stations have been installed to date.  Plans for FY 1994-1996
include installation of stations at oceanic sites, both island
and submarine, in order to achieve the necessary global coverage.
Support is also planned for the continued development of a
portable array of approximately 600 digital seismographs for use
in PASSCAL to complement GSN with high resolution array studies
of the interior.  About 130 of the portable seismic units have
been acquired at this time.  The design of three-dimensional
imaging experiments that require two-dimensional arrays of
sensors on the surface is a fundamental departure from previous
seismic experiments which used relatively few instruments in a
linear array.  Seismic tomography on local and regional scales
requires densely packed arrays of detectors to eliminate spatial
aliasing at frequencies of interest, thereby permitting
undistorted recordings of the entire wave field.  Development of
the satellite Global Positioning System (GPS) makes it possible
to locate seismometer positions in minutes with accuracies of a
few meters, thereby enabling very rapid deployment of large
arrays in response to emergencies or scientific opportunities.
PASSCAL units were deployed within hours after the Loma Prieta,
California, earthquake in October 1989.
Earth Sciences Synchrotron and Accelerator Mass Spectrometer
Synchrotron.  Beginning in FY 1994, the GEO Recapitalization
Program includes the cost of designing, preparing and installing
X-ray beamlines at advanced synchrotron light sources.  The earth
sciences community has designated this as an extremely high
priority. The brilliant, highly parallel X-ray beams made
available through various magnetic field deceleration schemes
offer tremendous improvements in the characterization of
materials at the atomic scale through diffraction and
spectroscopy.  DOE is planning for the total cost of the new
synchrotron storage rings; NSF's investment will be in setting up
the beamlines at the storage rings.
Accelerator Mass Spectrometer (AMS).  Funds will be applied
toward acquisition of two new tandem accelerator facilities.
These AMS facilities have been identified as high priorities
under the PACEM initiative.  The geochemical isotope analysis
requirements of several of the global change initiatives will add
to the demands placed on these facilities.  The upgrades are
imperative if U.S. scientists are to have reasonable access to
AMS for dating and geochemical tracer analysis.
Ship Replacement and Upgrades
A modern and efficient academic fleet is essential for field
programs in the ocean sciences, both for global change studies
and disciplinary science programs.  The acquisition of more
capable ships to replace aging ships in the academic fleet and
upgrading and modernizing existing ships to meet research
requirements are of high priority for GEO.
The highest priority is the acquisition of an ice-capable
research ship to work independently in the seasonal ice zones of
the Arctic and with the ability to work in the central Arctic
Basin with icebreaker support.  This ship is a replacement for
the Alpha Helix (built in 1966), operated by the University of
Alaska for open-ocean studies up to ice edge regions.  The
Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee identified limited
access to the ice-covered Arctic Ocean and seasonally ice-covered
marginal seas as the most severe limitation in arctic oceans
research.  An arctic research vessel is essential to meet
national needs, including the ARCSS global change science
program.  The U.S. academic fleet lacks a dedicated arctic
research vessel.  Final design, long lead time equipment
purchase, and initiation of construction contracts are scheduled
for FY 1993; construction for FY 1994-1995; and full operations
in FY 1996.
Seven NSF-built ships (Calanus, Columbus Iselin, Oceanus, Wecoma,
Endeavor, Cape Hatteras and Pt Sur) are entering the last half of
their service life.  These ships have provided yeoman service for
individual investigator projects.  However, without major
rehabilitation and upgrading to meet current technological
standards, these ships cannot support modern research projects.
It is essential for the U.S. to continue to maintain a
world-class research fleet to meet science mission requirements.
To meet continuing needs and evolving requirements for research
at sea, upgrades to the NSF-owned ships will be initiated in FY
1993 and continue through FY 1998.  In the late 1990s, NSF will
also fund the design of next-generation vessels to replace the
oldest intermediate-class ships and coastal vessels.
Supercomputer
The NCAR supercomputer facility is an essential tool for global
change projects supported by GEO, such as TOGA and GTCP.  It is
now saturated by more than 1000 users from around the country.
The past 25 years of progress in the atmospheric sciences have
shown that leading-edge computers create possibilities for
studies of new phenomena.  Creative refinancing allowed NCAR to
upgrade the X-MP/48 to a larger Y-MP/8/864 during FY 1990.
Future scientific requirements for supercomputing resources have
been determined by the atmospheric and ocean sciences
communities.  These requirements specify the performance and
increased memory needs of more than 40 projects now under way.
These projects involve the research efforts of NCAR and
university scientists, many of whom participate in major national
undertakings in climate and global change research.  These
projects require a supercomputer with up to 400 million words of
memory and, in aggregate, would require in excess of 1,000,000
XMP single processor equivalent hours per year.  In response to
these needs, the GEO Recapitalization Program will provide funds
for a next-generation supercomputer.
Other Facilities
In addition to the major capital items included in the GEO
Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program, other
facilities needs and maintenance and operations costs associated
with GEO research will be supported as part of disciplinary
science programs and as part of larger, coordinated thrusts such
as Global Change.  High priority facilities and instrumentation
needs are:
Atmospheric Sciences
Polar Cap Observatory (PCO).  It is known that the solar wind
interaction with Earth's polar cap regions influences the
behavior of the entire global structure of our upper atmosphere.
Due to the scarcity of observations at the highest latitudes of
the globe, the Earth's polar regions currently represent the most
conspicuous gap in our understanding.  A new upper atmospheric
observatory, located within the northern polar cap, will be able
to determine the characteristics and variability of the crucial
terrestrial parameters, while satellite observations record the
variations in the solar wind.  Two global change programs --
CEDAR and GEM -- are directly aimed at the study of energy
transfer mechanisms in the solar-terrestrial system and will
greatly benefit from the availability of the PCO.  In addition,
the new facility will benefit the international Solar Terrestrial
Energy Program (STEP), and many long-term NASA programs and upper
atmosphere studies supported by the Division of Polar Programs.
Instrumentation and Facility Infrastructure Initiative.  Aside
from major capital equipment, there are three facility needs in
atmospheric sciences:  (1) Funds for purchasing of
instrumentation small facilities.  At present it is nearly
impossible for individual investigators or groups at individual
institutions to acquire instruments or small facilities in the
$200K to $500K range.  These instruments are too expensive to be
part of a standard research proposal, but they are not intended
to be "community facilities." Thus, cutting edge tools, essential
to individual or small groups of PIs, often fail to be supported.
(2) Funds for development of modest-size instrumentation and
facilities for use by the community.  These are not large enough
to be justified separately as part of a capital equipment pool,
but sufficiently expensive that they require community judgement
on their desirability.  (3) Funds for emergency repairs of
existing facilities and instruments.  Existing facilities often
have unexpected, expensive failures.  Furthermore, there is a
steady growth in the number of facilities and, thus, more
failures are likely to occur.
In response to the first two needs, funds will be designated for
instrumentation/small facility needs.  These funds will be
apportioned according to the demonstrated capitalization needs of
the various programs based on the recommendations of a committee
of program directors and community scientists.  To meet the third
need, a small amount of funds will be designated for "emergency
repair."  These funds also will be apportioned according to the
needs of the various Atmospheric Sciences programs.
Earth Sciences
While major capital investment needs for seismic networks,
synchrotron radiation sources, and accelerator-based mass
spectrometry are included in the GEO Facilities and
Instrumentation Recapitalization Program, the Earth Sciences
Division will support the operations and maintenance of the
facilities providing access to this new instrumentation.  In
addition, Earth Sciences will continue to support the Rock
Magnetics Institute to provide a facility for fundamental
research in the magnetic properties of geologic materials, and
the University Navstar Consortium to provide technical assistance
for geodetic field research using the Global Positioning System.
Continental Scientific Drilling.  Drilling is the ultimate tool
for exploring and verifying the structures, materials, and
properties of Earth's subsurface portions.  It is an essential
component in the solution of many of the most important
geological problems.  Drilling is an expensive tool, and is
therefore used sparingly and as a component of well conceived,
comprehensive research plans.  Since 1989, NSF has collaborated
with USGS and DOE in a very successful multiagency program of
shallow and intermediate-depth scientific drilling on land as a
complement to the highly successful Ocean Drilling Program.  In
FY 1994 and succeeding years, scientific opportunities (Katmai,
Hawaii) will require drilling capabilities well beyond those
available at current funding levels.
Ocean Sciences
The near-term major capital needs of the Ocean Sciences community
are included in the GEO Recapitalization Program.  Other
facilities support provided by the Ocean Sciences Division,
through the global change and disciplinary research programs, are
the provision of ships and other shared-use facilities required
by NSF-supported scientists.  This includes operating and
maintaining research ships and submersibles; providing technical
support to maintain and operate shared-use shipboard scientific
systems; acquisition and development of new instruments for ocean
research; and operation of a national Accelerator Mass
Spectrometer Center for ocean carbon measurements.
Polar Programs
R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer.  Facilities and operations provide
access to Antarctica and life support and sustenance to
researchers and support crews.  Enhanced support in FY 1994-98
will fund the charter and operation of an ice-breaking research
vessel required by NSF-supported scientists to conduct research
such as biological oceanography in the Antarctic.  The research
vessel allows significant extension of antarctic ocean research.
The ship's first cruise supported the joint Russian/United States
ice camp in the Weddell Sea.
Crary Science and Engineering Center.  The new science laboratory
under construction at McMurdo Station will replace current
laboratories and facilitate advanced interdisciplinary studies of
the antarctic environment.  The first phase of the laboratory was
dedicated in November 1991. The final two phases are scheduled
for completion in FY 1993.  In FY 1994-1998, the Center will
continue to develop based on feedback from the scientific users.
LC-130 Aircraft.  Upgrades to the seven NSF LC-130 aircraft will
be completed in FY 1994.  The acquisition of new LC-130 aircraft
to replace the current seven as they reach the end of their
service life is planned to begin by budgeting for the first two
in FY 1994 and FY 1996.
South Pole Station Development.  Amundsen-Scott South Pole
Station supports primarily tropospheric and upper atmospheric
studies, astronomy, and astrophysics.  In addition to
deterioration due to long exposure to the harsh environment (the
current South Pole Station was built in 1975), the demand for
space to conduct research at South Pole Station has been
increasing steadily.  For example, the new Science and Technology
Center for Astrophysical Research  in Antarctica (CARA) was
established in 1991 to explore and exploit the unique advantages
of the South Pole as a site for infrared and submillimeter
astronomy.  A series of engineering and future science needs
studies are being conducted, and decisions are now being made
concerning how to incorporate existing elements of the station
into an improved science facility.  The procurement of a new
South Pole Station is expected to begin in FY 1995 or 1996.
Before then, construction of berthing and science facilities must
occur.  During the 1991-1992 field season, 140 people were
working at South Pole Station, which provides only marginal
facilities for 100 people.
Antarctic Safety, Environment, and Health Initiative.  Funding
responsibility for this initiative was transferred to the
Department of Defense in FY 1992 and is expected to remain there
in FY 1993 at a level of $14 million.  The total package,
originally expected to amount to about $175 million over 5 years,
included the acquisition of two aircraft.  With the deletion of
the two aircraft, the package now stands at $85 million of which
$50 million is to be funded by DOD.  Of the $85 million, over $30
million will be used to improve protection of the environment.
As the initiative has developed, it has become apparent that
follow-on activities will be required.  As a result of policies
and procedures developed during the initiative and the signing of
the Environmental Protocol to the Antarctic Treaty, antarctic
operations have changed significantly.  Follow-on activities will
include:
continued cleanup of old stations;
improvements of fire suppression and utilities systems at
existing stations;
safety renovations for existing buildings; and
communications improvements.
VI.  Education and Human Resources
Developing human resources in science and engineering is
essential for the U.S. to continue as the world's leader in
scientific research and engineering.  Our Nation's economic
competitiveness, national security, and standard of living depend
on an adequate supply of scientifically and technically qualified
people.  To meet these needs, a strong emphasis on human
resources development is required, including expanded efforts to
increase participation of underrepresented groups, including
women, minorities and persons with disabilities, in science and
engineering.
GEO is increasing its support for human resources development.
Support is provided at various stages in the educational pipeline
-- undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral -- as part of the
regular award process and under several special programs,
including those for underrepresented groups.  During the next
five years, GEO support for graduate students and postdoctoral
fellows will be primarily through regular research awards.
However, GEO continues to provide substantial support for special
programs, which include:
Research in Undergraduate Institutions (RUI)
Minority Research Initiation (MRI)
Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU)
Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators
(NYI)
Faculty Awards for Women (FAW)
Career Advancement Awards (CAA) and Research Planning Grants
(RPG) for Women
Many colleges and universities offer undergraduate majors in
geology, but very few undergraduate programs exist in the
atmospheric sciences, oceanography, or hydrology. Thus, the
latter are dependent on a supply of undergraduates from other
disciplines (physics, chemistry, biology, mathematics,
engineering) who choose to pursue graduate careers in the
geosciences.  GEO will increase its efforts during the next five
years to attract high school students and undergraduates, and
will provide graduate student support through individual
investigator awards in the geosciences.
In keeping with their fundamental importance, support for
education and human resources is planned to increase at the same
rate as GEO science and facilities.  New programs will be added
where and when needed.
Undergraduates
Programs for undergraduates are expected to grow over the next
five years with a special focus on underrepresented groups.  GEO
maintains a special account (currently $1.25 million) for support
of minority undergraduate students, from which the Divisions draw
funds for awards for this purpose.  Major support for
undergraduates will be through the normal grant support
mechanisms, as well as through the very successful Research in
Undergraduate Institutions (RUI) and Research Experiences for
Undergraduates (REU) programs.
GEO will demonstrate the excitement and rewards of a career in
geosciences.  Along these lines, funding will be provided for
innovative programs, using institutional facilities and field
programs, to attract both college and high school students to
careers in the geosciences.
Polar Programs has new facilities and field projects to attract
college students and younger scholars to research careers in the
polar regions.  The new Crary Science and Engineering Center at
McMurdo Station and the new R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer continue to
play important roles in these efforts.
The Division of Polar Programs regularly supports REU supplements
and sites in both arctic and antarctic projects.  These awards
complement and expand GEO efforts through the Polar Biology and
Medicine, Polar Earth Sciences, Glaciology, and Aeronomy and
Astrophysics programs, as well as the Arctic Social Sciences.
The Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Divisions will continue to
concentrate undergraduate education efforts in REU sites and
supplements, with the encouragement of linkages between majority
and minority institutions and students; scholarship support for
minority students; and upgrading of geoscience facilities and
laboratories for undergraduates in science and science education
programs.  Funding for underrepresented minorities has been
augmented through a major grant to the American Geological
Institute (AGI) Minority Participation Program.
The REU Program has been particularly successful in the Ocean
Sciences Division.  About ten sites and 100 students are
supported annually, with plans to network the principal
investigators to exchange information on effective training and
recruitment practices.  Minority undergraduates and faculty
mentors are being supported by the Ocean Sciences Division to
attend annual meetings of the American Society for Limnology and
Oceanography (ASLO).  ASLO provides free registration and a
three-year membership to the participants, while the Ocean
Sciences Division supports travel and a pre-meeting workshop for
the participants.  This program has been very successful.  In
1992, 45 students and 10 faculty attended the meeting.
The Ocean Sciences Division has several ongoing projects aimed at
increasing minority participation in marine science.  These
include planning workshops to network major marine institutions
and Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs); support
for the Minority Institutions in Marine Sciences Association,
which acts as a clearinghouse for minority students and faculty
and research opportunities; and projects in Oregon and Alaska to
attract Native Americans and Alaskan Natives, respectively.
Ocean Sciences is also supporting several HBCU projects either
directly or through subcontracts.
The Atmospheric Sciences Division supports the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which provides opportunities for
10-12 undergraduate science majors from ethnic minority groups to
work on a specific research project with an NCAR scientist.
Graduate Students
More graduate students will be supported through individual
project awards.  As with undergraduates, attempts will be made to
attract talented graduate students into the geosciences
disciplines through programs involving the use of geosciences
facilities and field programs.  The global change programs are a
particularly strong drawing card for environmentally oriented
students; increased efforts will be made to involve graduate
students in those exciting field programs.  Past successful
programs, such as the Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP),
have demonstrated the usefulness of this approach.
The Earth Sciences Division has increased opportunities for
graduate student thesis and dissertation research by supporting
the Geological Society of America's Penrose Program.  Also,
competitive non-awardees in the NSF Graduate Minority Fellowship
Program can apply for graduate student support through their
academic department.
The Atmospheric Sciences Division plans to increase its efforts
in recruiting and training students from the traditional
disciplines as well as in supporting those trained in the
atmospheric sciences by offering portable two-year fellowships to
beginning graduate students.  Support under this fellowship
program will be based on open competition, and the Division
expects to support at least ten graduate student fellows during
the initial years of this program.  Additional graduate
fellowships will be offered by the National Center for
Atmospheric Research.
The Division of Polar Programs' Arctic Social Sciences Program
provides Dissertation Improvement Grants that cover expenses for
field work, data management and consultant fees, etc.  Awards are
for a maximum of two years.  Research projects that integrate the
social and natural sciences in questions relating to global
change are especially encouraged.  Dissertation grants have also
been awarded to Alaskan Native students applying traditional
knowledge to science and science education.
Postdoctoral Fellowships
GEO does not have a Directorate-wide postdoctoral program.
Instead, each GEO Division has developed programs where there is
a need to enhance specific research areas, global change programs
or general research opportunity.
The Ocean Sciences Division funds two postdoctoral programs in
areas for which there is an identified need for additional
personnel or skills.  The Research Fellowships in Marine
Biotechnology is a two-year program for postdoctoral fellows and
research faculty who want to apply molecular biology techniques
to ocean science research.  It also aims to attract scientists
from outside the ocean disciplines to ocean science research.
The Division supports approximately eight scientists per year.
The Postdoctoral Program in Ocean Modeling is a two-year program
sponsored by the Ocean Sciences Division and the Office of Naval
Research, and administered by the University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research.  The program stresses training and research
to create the next generation of broadly trained ocean modelers.
A steady state of 12 postdoctoral fellows a year is envisaged.
As part of its increased efforts to recruit and train scientists,
the Atmospheric Sciences Division will offer two-year
postdoctoral fellowships, based on open competition.  The
Division expects to support at least five postdoctoral fellows
during the initial years of the program.  An additional 10-12
postdoctoral fellowships will be offered by NCAR.
The Earth Sciences Division's Postdoctoral Program, established
in FY 1991, provides direct support to exceptional young
scientists for two years. Emphasis will be placed on young
scientists pursuing research in global change areas -- Geologic
Record of Global Change, Continental Hydrological Processes, and
Geodynamics.
Presidential Faculty Fellows (PFF) and NSF Young Investigators
(NYI)
The distribution of NYI awards, which are jointly supported by
industry and foundations, is uneven within GEO, with most
nominations and awards in the earth sciences.  Efforts are being
made to stabilize the number of new GEO NYI awards at ten per
year, with a more even distribution across Divisions, if the NSF
goal remains at its current level.  GEO made one PFF award in FY
1992.
Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning Grants for Women
As the number of Ph.D.s awarded to women in the geosciences has
increased, so has the number of GEO awards to female principal
investigators.  There are indications, however, that this trend
may have peaked, as it has in other disciplines, and new
strategies for recruitment, retention and advancement of women in
geosciences will be necessary in the future.  GEO will continue
to encourage the Career Advancement Awards and Research Planning
Grants as it looks for new ways to ensure significant
participation of women.
Faculty Awards for Women (FAW).   Beginning in FY 1991, NSF
instituted an honorific award program for tenured women in higher
education who are not yet full professors.  Eligibility in the
program may be expanded in future years so that more women in the
geosciences, especially those without tenure and without
permanent tenure-track appointments to research institutions, may
be able to apply.  With the aim of recognition for outstanding
scientists and their retention in research careers, these awards
will also identify highly visible women scientists on campus who
serve as role models and who advise undergraduate and graduate
students on careers in the geosciences.
Pre-College
It is often stated that inadequate interest/education in science
is the fault of pre-college education, and that teachers are
often ill-prepared to deal with the subject.  At NSF, primary
responsibility for dealing with pre-college education in science
and engineering lies with the Directorate for Education and Human
Resources (EHR).  GEO plans to contribute to pre-college
scientific education by working with EHR and the professional
societies to further teacher education.  For young students, the
geosciences have exciting aspects and the potential for making
major contributions to society.  As past and potential
environmental changes become realities in the minds of
politicians, economists, and the general public, GEO's role in
this arena may change from one of sparking the interest to one of
nurturing it.
The Earth Sciences Division will encourage and support, in
conjunction with EHR, foundations and professional societies, the
training and continuing education of K-12 science teachers, the
development of geoscience material throughout the K-12
curriculum, and the support of opportunities for students to
experience earth science activity directly through data
collecting and synthesis, field trips, and visits to major
facilities where the work of science is in progress.
The Division of Polar Programs has enthusiastically supported the
Young Scholars Program and has sponsored as many as four
outstanding students in antarctic studies for the past three
years.  The program provides students a unique opportunity to
participate in a research project with scientists in a variety of
scientific areas in the polar regions.
Reports Supporting the Long Range Plan
Global Change
TOGA: A Review of Progress and Future Opportunities.  National
Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990.
Scientific Plan for the TOGA Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response
Experiment.  World Climate Research Programme Series No. 3
Addendum, January 1990.
U.S. WOCE Planning and Implementation Reports.  A series of
reports produced by the U.S. WOCE Office, Texas A&M University.
GEWEX Planning Reports.   A series of reports produced by the
World Climate Research Programme of the World Meteorological
Organization and the International Council of Scientific Unions.
U.S. JGOFS Planning and Implementation Reports.  A series of
reports produced by the Scientific Committee for Oceanic Research
of the International Council of Scientific Unions.
The International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Programme.
A Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme.  IGAC Steering Committee, 1989.
Terrestrial Biosphere Exchange with Global Atmospheric Chemistry.
Terrestrial Biosphere Perspective of the IGAC Project.  IGBP
Report No. 13, Stockholm, 1990.
U.S. GLOBEC Planning and Implementation Reports.   A series of
reports produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.
Advisory Panel Report on Earth System History.  Panel convened by
National Science Foundation, Division of Ocean Sciences, July
1990.  Report produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc.,
September 1991.
PAGES - Past Global Changes: Proposed Implementation Plans for
Research Activities.  Report No. 19, International
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) of the International Council
of Scientific Unions, Stockholm, 1992.
The Mid-Oceanic Ridge:  A Dynamic Global System.  National
Research Council, National Academy Press, 1988.
RIDGE:  Initial Science Plan.  RIDGE Planning Office, February
1989.
Radiative Inputs of the Sun to Earth:  A Research Plan for the
1990s on Solar Irradiance Variation.  SunRISE Science Steering
Committee, February 1990.
Coupling Energetics, and Dynamics of Atmosphere Regions (CEDAR):
Observations of the Coupled Atmospheric Regions.  Volume I:
Overview.  CEDAR Science Steering Committee, April 1986.
Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM).  GEM Science Steering
Committee, University of Washington, Seattle, May 1988.
Arctic System Science:  Ocean-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions.
Report of an NSF-sponsored Workshop held in March 1990.  Produced
by Joint Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., December 1990.
Arctic System Science:  Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions.  Report
of an NSF-sponsored Workshop held in February 1990.  Produced by
the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S., September 1991.
Arctic System Science:  Land-Atmosphere-Ice Interactions Science
Plan.   Produced by the Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S.,
November 1991.
The Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change.  Scientific
Committee for Antarctic Research, 1991.
The UCAR Climate System Modeling Initiative:  Report of the First
CSMP Workshop.   University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,
Boulder, 1989.
Solving the Global Change Puzzle:  A U.S. Strategy for Managing
Data and Information.  National Research Council, National
Academy Press, 1991.
Recommendations from an Interdisciplinary Forum on Data
Management for Global Change.  Interagency Working Group on Data
Management for Global Change, 1990.
The U.S. Global Change Data and Information Management Program
Plan.  A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental
Sciences, in press.
Our Changing Planet:  The FY 1991 Research Plan.  A Report of the
Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, October 1990.
Our Changing Planet:  The FY 1993 U.S. Global Change Research
Program.  A Report of the Committee on Earth and Environmental
Sciences.  A Supplement to the U.S. President's Fiscal Year 1993
Budget.
The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme: A Study of
Global Change.  The Initial Core Projects.  Report No. 12, IGBP,
Stockholm, 1990.
Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990.
Atmospheric Sciences
The Atmospheric Sciences: A Vision for 1989-1994.  Report of the
NSF-UCAR Long-Range Planning Committee, July 1987.
Facilities for Atmospheric Research.  National Center for
Atmospheric Research, 1989.
Advancing the Understanding and Forecasting of Mesoscale Weather
in the United States.  National Research Council, National
Academy Press, 1990.
Solar-Terrestrial Energy Program 1990-1995: Initial Research
Projects.  International Council of Scientific Unions/SCOSTEP,
STEP Steering Committee, April 1990.
Prospects for Extending the Range of Prediction of the Global
Atmosphere.  National Research Council, National Academy Press,
1991.
A Polar Cap Observatory.  The Next Step in Upper Atmospheric
Science.  Prepared for the NSF Division of Atmospheric Sciences,
1991.
Predicting Our Weather:  A Strategic Plan for the U.S. Weather
Research Program.  A report by the Subcommittee on Atmospheric
Research of the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences,
1992.
Coastal Meteorology.  National Research Council, National Academy
Press, 1992.
Earth Sciences
Geodetic Monitoring of Tectonic Deformation--Toward a Strategy.
National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1981.
Seismological Studies of the Continental Lithosphere.   National
Research Council, National Academy Press, 1984.
Groundwater Contamination.  Studies in Geophysics.   National
Research Council, National Academy Press, 1984.
Active Tectonics.  Studies of Geophysics.   National Research
Council, National Academy Press, 1986.
Current Problems  in Geodesy.   National Research Council,
National Academy Press, 1987.
Earth Materials Research.  Report of a Workshop on Physics and
Chemistry of Earth Materials.   National Research Council,
National Academy Press, 1987.
A Unified Theory of Planet Earth.  A Strategic Overview and Long
Range Plan for the Division of Earth Sciences of the National
Science Foundation.  The Advisory Committee for Earth Sciences,
November 1988.
Background Papers for the Workshop on Continental Margins:
Evolution of Passive Continental Margins and Active Marginal
Processes.  National Research Council, National Academy Press,
1988.
The Role of Continental Scientific Drilling in Modern Earth
Sciences--Scientific Rationale and Plan for the 1990s.  The
Workshop on Continental Scientific Drilling, Stanford University,
August 1988.
Frontiers in Mineral Physics.  Report of the Mineral Physics
Committee of the American Geophysical Union.  Lake Arrowhead, CA,
September 1988.
Space Science in the Twenty-First Century.  Imperatives for the
Decades 1995 to 2015.  Mission to Planet Earth.  National
Research Council, National Academy Press, 1988.
Reducing Disasters' Toll.  The United States Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction.  National Research Council, National Academy
Press, 1989.
Facilities for Earth Materials Research.  National Research
Council, National Academy Press, 1990.
The Role of Fluids in Crustal Processes.  Studies on Geophysics.
 National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1990.
Sea-Level Change.  Studies in Geophysics.  National Research
Council, National Academy Press, 1990.
International Global Network of Fiducial Stations: Scientific
Implementation Issues.  National Research Council, National
Academy Press, 1991.
Opportunities on the Hydrologic Sciences. National Research
Council, National Academy Press, 1991.
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program: Five-Year Plan for
1992-1996.  Federal Emergency Management Agency, U.S. Geological
Survey, NSF, and National Institute of Standards and Technology,
September 1991.
A National Program for Research in Continental Dynamics.  The
Workshop on Future Research Directions in Continental Dynamics.
DOSECC Incorporated; the IRIS Consortium, June 1992.
A Science Plan for Cooperative Studies of the Earth's Deep
Interior (CSEDI).  Draft prepared by  the ad hoc US CSEDI
Committee, June 1992.
Ocean Sciences
A Unified Plan for Ocean Science.   A Long-Range Plan for the
Division of Ocean Sciences of the National Science Foundation.
Advisory Committee for Ocean Sciences, August 1987.
Margins: A Research Initiative for Interdisciplinary Studies of
Processes Attending Lithospheric Extension and Convergence.
National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1989.
Coastal Ocean Processes:  A Science Prospectus.  Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution, April 1992.
UNOLS Fleet Improvement Plan.  University National Oceanographic
Laboratory System, May 1990.
Initiative for the Accelerated Transfer of Biotechnology to the
Ocean Sciences.  Produced by Joint Oceanographic Institutions,
Inc., July 1990.
Biotechnology for the 21st Century.  A Report by the FCCSET
Committee on Life Sciences and Health, February 1992.
Report of a Workshop on Molecular Marine Biology and Marine
Biotechnology Applied to Oceanic Problems.  National Research
Council, National Academy Press, in press.
Ocean Drilling Program Long Range Plan: 1989-2002.  Joint
Oceanographic Institutions, Inc., May 1990.
InterRidge [International Mid Oceanic Ridge Research Program]
Draft Program Plan, InterRidge Coordinating Office, 1992.
Polar Programs
The Role of the NSF in Polar Regions.  A report to the National
Science Foundation.  Committee on the NSF Role in the Polar
Regions, National Science Board, NSB 87-128, 1987.
Arctic Environmental Data Workshop Report.  Workshop sponsored by
NOAA, USGS, NSF, and NASA, Boulder, CO, March 1988.
A Long-Range Science Plan for the Division of Polar Programs.
Divisional Advisory Committee for Polar Programs, April 1990.
Arctic Research of the United States.  U.S. Arctic Research Plan
Second Biennial Revision: 1992-1993.  Vol. 5, Spring 1991.
Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy.  International
Agreement, 1991.
Antarctic Journal of the United States.  Published 5 times per
year by NSF to provide information about the science and related
programs of the U.S. Antarctic Program.
U.S. Antarctic Research Report to SCAR.  National Academy of
Sciences, U.S. National Committee for Antarctic Research, No. 33,
1991.
Acronyms
ACAS      Advisory Committee for Atmospheric Sciences
ACC       Abrupt Climate Change
AGI       American Geological Institute
AGO       Automatic Geophysical Observatory
AMAP      Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program
AMS       Accelerator Mass Spectrometer
ARCSS     Arctic System Science
ASLO      American Society for Limnology and Oceanography
CAA       Career Advancement Awards
CARA      Center for Astrophysical Research in Antarctica
CEDAR     Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric
Regions
CEES      Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences
CHP       Continental Hydrologic Processes
CMAP      Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction
COARE     Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Research Experiment
CoOP      Coastal Ocean Processes
CSDP      Continental Scientific Drilling Project
DOD       Department of Defense
DOE       Department of Energy
EHR       Directorate for Education and Human Resources
EPA       Environmental Protection Agency
FAW       Faculty Awards for Women
FCCSET    Federal Coordinating Council for Science, Engineering
and                 Technology
GARP      Global Atmospheric Research Program
GCM       General Circulation Model
GEM       Geospace Environmental Modeling
GEO       Directorate for Geosciences
GEWEX     Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment
GISP2          Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2
GLOBEC    Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics
GPS       Global Positioning System
GRGC      Geologic Record of Global Change
GSN       Global Seismic Network
GTCP      Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program
HBCU      Historically Black Colleges and Universities
IARPC          Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee
ICSU      International Council of Scientific Unions
IDNHR     International Decade of Natural Hazard Reduction
IGAC      International Global Atmospheric Chemistry Programme
IGBP      International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IRIS      Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology
JGOFS          Joint Global Ocean Flux Study
LMER      Land Margin Ecosystems Research
LTER      Long-Term Ecological Research
          MESH      Marine Aspects of Earth System History
MRI       Minority Research Initiation
NAS       National Academy of Sciences
NASA      National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NCAR      National Center for Atmospheric Research
NEHRP     National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program
NEXRAD    Next Generation Radar
NOAA      National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NRC       National Research Council
NRL       Naval Research Laboratory
NSF       National Science Foundation
NYI       NSF Young Investigators
ODP       Ocean Drilling Program
OMB       Office of Management and Budget
ONR       Office of Naval Research
PACEM     Physics and Chemistry of Earth Materials
PAGES     Past Global Changes
PALE      Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries
PASSCAL   Program for Array Seismic Studies of the Continental
               Lithosphere
PCO       Polar Cap Observatory
PFF       Presidential Faculty Fellows
REU       Research Experiences for Undergraduates
RIDGE     Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiment
ROCEW     Role of Clouds, Energy and Water
RPG       Research Planning Grants for Women
RUI       Research in Undergraduate Institutions
SEDI      Structure of the Earth's Deep Interior
STEP      Solar Terrestrial Energy Program
STORM     Storm-scale Operational and Research Meteorology
SunRISE   Radiative Inputs of the Sun to the Earth
TOGA      Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere
UNAVCO    University NAVSTAR Consortium
UNIDATA   University Data System
USGS      U.S. Geological Survey (Department of the Interior)
U.S.JGOFS U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study
UV        Ultraviolet
WOCE      World Ocean Circulation Experiment
By advancing scientific knowledge of Earth's environment, GEO
contributes to the Nation's need to understand, predict, and
respond to environmental events and changes, and to use Earth's
resources wisely.
Maintaining, upgrading and replacing critical multi-user
equipment is a high priority for GEO during the period FY
1994-1998, to ensure excellence in research and safety of
research operations.
GEO recognizes that to conduct disciplinary research and
interdisciplinary global and regional science programs, it must
expand its efforts to ensure that new researchers enter the
geosciences.
GEO Environmental Research Emphases:
Global Change
Hydrological Sciences
U.S. Weather Research Program
Coastal Ocean Processes
Multidisciplinary Research on the Environment
Following a highly successful field program in the North Atlantic
in 1989-1990, JGOFS is now beginning its two-year Equatorial
Pacific Process Study.
GEO Global Change Programs
   Climate and Hydrologic Systems
World Ocean Circulation Experiment  (WOCE)
Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere  (TOGA)
Role of Clouds, Energy and Water  (ROCEW)
Continental Hydrologic Processes  (CHP)
   Biogeochemical Dynamics
   Global Tropospheric Chemistry Program  (GTCP)
   U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study  (U.S. JGOFS)
   Ecological Systems and Dynamics
   Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics  (GLOBEC)
Land-Margin Ecosystems Research  (LMER)
Antarctic Ecosystems
Ozone Depletion/UV Effects
   Earth System History
Abrupt Climate Change  (ACC)
Geologic Record of Global Change  (GRGC)
Marine Aspects of Earth System History  (MESH)
   Solid Earth Processes
   Geodynamics
   Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiments  (RIDGE)
   Solar Influences
Coupling, Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions  (CEDAR)
Geospace Environmental Modeling  (GEM)
Radiative Inputs of the Sun to the Earth  (SunRISE)
Three Global Change programs apply to more than one science
element:
   Arctic System Science  (ARCSS)
   Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction  (CMAP)
   Geosystems Databases
In the context of future climate changes, GLOBEC will focus on
how changes in ocean physics affect animal population dynamics,
community composition, and the stability of ocean ecosystems.
The GEO Earth System History Program includes coordinated
programs from all four GEO Divisions and concentrates on
understanding the past behavior of critical components of the
coupled earth-ocean-atmosphere system.
The objective of  the Geologic Record of Global Change is to use
the wide variety of geological records as proxies to interpret
and understand the interactive processes that affect the time
variability of past environmental and climate changes.
The third year of field work in FY 1991 was highly successful.
Investigators employing new U.S. ice-core drill technology
reached a depth of 1,510 meters, which will provide 9,000 years
of climatic history.
In 1993, the Division of Earth Sciences plans to begin a new
program in Hydrologic Sciences aimed at fundamental scientific
understanding of the Earth's hydrologic systems.
As more of the Nation's population shifts toward coastal regions,
pressures on the coastal margins continue to increase,
endangering living resources, habitats, natural protective
structures and, in turn, human populations.
Multidisciplinary Research Priorities:
Arctic Environmental Research
Environmental Geochemistry
Land-Use Geology
Sensitive Coastal Ecosystems
Integrated Regional Modeling
Focused programs such as Global Change must be accompanied by
support for the scientific opportunities emerging in broadly
based research programs.
Understanding the deep interior of the Earth is the key to
explaining critically important phenomena such as the geomagnetic
field, the motion of tectonic plates, and the origin of
volcanism, mantle plumes and deep-seated earthquakes.
In April 1992, the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer, a 308-ft research
vessel with icebreaking capabilities, began service in the U.S.
Antarctic Program.
GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization Program
Aircraft replacement and upgrades, including a high altitude
research aircraft and modernization of existing equipment.
Acquisition and installation of seismographic facilities,
including the Global Seismic Network and PASSCAL Portable Seismic
Array.
Ship replacement and upgrade, including an ice-capable ship and
refitting six existing research vessels.
Expansion of computational capabilities for global
atmospheric/ocean/climate modeling and simulation through the
acquisition of a supercomputer.
Acquisition of synchrotron and accelerator mass spectrometer
facilities for the earth sciences community.
Through the GEO Facilities and Instrumentation Recapitalization
Program, the GSN and PASSCAL facilities, begun in 1989, are
planned to be completed during FY 1993-1996, with the cooperation
of international partners.
The acquisition of more capable ships for the academic fleet and
upgrading existing ships is essential.  Of the highest priority
is the acquisition of an ice-capable ship for work in the Arctic.
Arctic REU Site
Polar Programs has  supported an REU site on the Juneau Ice
Field, Alaska, for five years. Fifty undergraduates from  44
different institutions participate in projects including bedrock
mapping, glacier mass balance, glacio-hydrology and meteorology,
and seismic, gravity and ice radar studies.
Fort Valley/University of Oklahoma Joint Project
This is a dual degree program for qualified minority students,
supported by GEO, DOE, oil companies and others.  Students
receive tuition and expenses to study 3 years at Fort Valley and
two years at U. of Oklahoma, receiving a B.S. in math and science
and a B.S. in geosciences.  Many students are recruited from this
program by the cooperating oil companies.
GEO maintains a special account (currently $1.25 million) for
support of minority undergraduate students, from which the four
Divisions draw funds for awards for this purpose.
Minority undergraduates and faculty mentors are being supported
by the Ocean Sciences Division to attend annual meetings of the
American Society for Limnology and Oceanography.  In 1992, 45
students and 10 faculty attended the meeting.
CEDAR  in EHR
The CEDAR program, supported by the Atmospheric Sciences,
provides an excellent example of promoting student participation.
At the June 1991 CEDAR workshop, 117 students received free
registration and travel expenses.  The meeting was augmented with
tutorial lectures and short courses.  CEDAR also sponsors
postdoctoral awards.