AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
845 PM PDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK...ONLY UPDATE TO ZONES 1/3 FOR CLOUD COVER.             
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING               
TOWARD NW CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME ASSOCIATED WITH VORT CENTER WHICH             
IS ABOUT 200 MILES W OF CAPE MENDOCINO AT THIS TIME.  BOTH MESOETA              
AND RUC POSITION AT 03Z TOO FAR E.  CURRENT MOTION WOULD TAKE THIS              
FEATURE TO THE S OREGON COAST LATE TONIGHT.  WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW             
ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WOULD            
EXPECT A DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER.  CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES           
EARLY TONIGHT WILL BECOME CLOUDY...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE EXPECTED                 
TOWARD DAYBREAK.  MARINE:  BUOY 27 DROPPED OUT AT 00Z...LETS HOPE               
ONLY TEMPORARILY.  NO BIG CHANGES IN WIND NEXT 24 HOURS N OF CAPE               
MENDOCINO...HOWEVER WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE S OF THE CAPE                  
FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES.                                   
POPS EKA 2211 CEC 2211 UKI 0000.                                                
.EKA...NONE.                                                                    
OSIENSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 192226  ca                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
200 PM MDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES AND RESULTING                   
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...                                                         
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AND DESERT             
SOUTHWEST WITH CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWING GOOD FEED OF                   
MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION.  SUBTLE DIFFERENCES                
EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES                  
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH.  MODELS MOST AGREE ON THE TIMING OF             
MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. ETA           
AND RUC ALSO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WHICH STARTS OUT IN SOUTHWEST               
UTAH AROUND 18Z AND MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.                   
DIFFICULT TO PICK THIS SHORTWAVE OUT IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES...BUT              
COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN CENTRAL UT.           
AT ANY RATE...WITH STEALTH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH...               
COMBINED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SCATTERED EVENING              
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS IN GOING FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD.                
IN WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODELS               
BRING A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY                  
AFTERNOON.  MODELS DISAGREE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THIS SURFACE                 
FRONT.  BY 00Z...ETA WEAKENS THE WIND FIELD WITH VERY DIFFUSE                   
SURFACE FRONT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA. AVN/NGM SHOW             
FRONT BANKED UP NEXT TO THE MOUNTAINS THEN EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD              
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY LOBE IS               
EXPECTED TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE              
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN WELL IN                  
PLACE...THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DRY OUT SOME WITH EITHER A NORTHERLY OR            
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. ETA FORECAST CAPES RANGE UP TO               
1200 J/KG AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL              
BE...WILL KEEP WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY            
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                               
UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH NOT MUCH                    
CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS EITHER. TOO DIFFICULT THAT FAR OUT TO             
TIME ANY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES.  SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE              
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TYPE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.                       
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                          
UPPER HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US THROUGH THE                    
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND              
EASTERN PERIPHERY.  FIRST OF THESE ROTATES DOWN ACROSS EASTERN                  
COLORADO IN NORTHWEST FLOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER           
NORTHERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  MOISTURE               
FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE                  
RECIRCULATED AROUND THE HIGH CENTER TO MAINTAIN POSSIBILITY OF                  
THUNDERSTORMS. UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON                    
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SHIFT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN              
MOUNTAINS.   WITH THE HIGH EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN US...THIS                 
SHOULD SHUNT MOST OF THE EASTERLY WAVES THAT HAVE BEEN SO PROBLEMATIC           
FOR THE MODELS TO RESOLVE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
BUT CHALLENGE WILL SHIFT TO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE TOP OF             
THE RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  MRF               
VORTICITY FIELDS APPEAR PRETTY BENIGN FOR TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE                 
DECREASING (STILL 40-50% BY 00Z IN 850-500MB LAYER RH) AS ONE WOULD             
EXPECT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL VORTICITY               
FIELDS REVEAL A DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO                 
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH           
DIV Q FIELDS NOT SHOWING MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE              
WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD                 
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...THEN REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY.                              
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
KT                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KPUB 191024  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
238 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
GLOBAL MOSAIC OF WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO            
SLOWLY AMPLIFY AS THE 100+ KNOT PACIFIC JET (BASED ON DARKNESS) WORKS           
ITS WAY INTO THE ALEUTIANS. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS HOW WILL THE                
IMPENDING/EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF BRET AND CINDY HAVE ON THE                    
LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. ADDITIONALLY THE                 
TRANSITION FROM SUMMER TO FALL IS BEGINNING WHICH WILL ADD MORE                 
UNCERTAINTY. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD THE VORTEX NORTH OF            
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA AND KICK OUT              
THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A LONGWAVE TROF AROUND             
160W WITH WAVELENGTH PLACING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A                
TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST.                                                      
GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON THE OUTCOME OF THE                    
LONGWAVE PATTERN. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE PACIFIC JET WILL                 
RESULT IN A SINGLE POLAR JET ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AROUND THE                    
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FOR THE ABOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH.                  
NET RESULT HERE IS TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO AROUND NORMAL THROUGH             
THE END OF THE MONTH WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE AT OR BELOW                
NORMAL.                                                                         
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE                
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 18Z SURFACE             
ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW BETWEEN KBMG AND KHNB WITH AN INVERTED TROF UP             
THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. TWO WEAK TROFS WERE             
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THE FIRST ENTERING INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI            
WITH THE SECOND FROM NEAR KMIW BACK TOWARD KVYS. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS            
PLENTY OF SC/CU ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME THIN SPOTS THAT WERE                  
ALLOWING JUST BRIEF PEEKS OF SUN. ON THE BROADER SCALE WATER VAPOR              
SHOWED A TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT HAS WORKED AS FAR NORTH AND EAST              
AS COLORADO/WYOMING AND NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE MOVING AROUND THE               
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE PAC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN                
PLAINS. DVN 88D SHOWS SOME --RA/-SHRA ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS                 
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST.                                                        
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE ESSENTIALLY CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES.                      
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK BUT THE NGM/AVN IS HANDLING            
THE LOW CLOUDS/RH FIELDS BETTER THAN THE ETA. QG FORCING FROM                   
NGM/AVN AND 15Z RUC SHOW DOWNWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT TO AID IN                    
BREAKING UP THE CLOUDS BUT TIME SECTIONS SHOW STILL SHOW PLENTY OF              
LOW LEVEL RH WHILE THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY RELAXES. CURRENT              
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP BUT A FAIR                
ABOUT OF CLOUD SHOULD REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THUS DECREASING CLOUDS FOR              
TONIGHT LOOKS RIGHT. RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY/LAST NIGHT SHOULD                  
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY            
SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE IN THE ROCKIES ARRIVES WITH INCREASED               
HIGH LEVEL RH WITH RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS DOWN LOW AS WELL. THEREFORE A            
PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD.                                             
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SUN ON SATURDAY.                   
TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL                 
DAYS. WARMER FWC TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT LOOK BETTER GIVEN CLOUDS              
BUT COOLER FAN NUMBERS BEYOND TONIGHT LOOK MUCH BETTER.                         
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO               
THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TO WORK ON THIS MOISTURE DURING MONDAY.               
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ENOUGH INTO THE AREA THAT ANY MCS/MCC THAT FORM              
SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES TO BE                
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.                                                            
COORDINATED WITH DSM...LSE...CHI...SPI.                                         
.DVN...                                                                         
NC                                                                              
 il                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
813 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
THE RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS A CESSATION OF RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
TONIGHT. THE RUC HIGHLIGHTS THE TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC               
TROUGH) EDDY OVER THE LOWER WATERS OF TEXAS MOVING WEST. WITH THIS IN           
MIND...I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.                  
BPT 77/98/74/95 0102                                                            
LCH 77/98/75/94 0102                                                            
LFT 77/97/75/94 0102                                                            
AEX 74/97/72/96 0001                                                            
8/21                                                                            
.LCH...                                                                         
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR TXZ201-215-216.                                       
LA...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KSHV 192006  la                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
915 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
TRICKY LTL CLOUD FCST TONIGHT. MAIN MASS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD IS                   
HEADING EAST OF THE CWA...AS THE UPR LOW EXITS THE SE CORNER OF MI.             
LINGERING PATCHY LOW CLOUD IS IN MAINLY THE ERN CWA...ALONG WITH THE            
LAST OF THE SPRINKLES. LAST USEFUL VSBL SAT IMAGES SHOWED SOME OF               
THAT DIURNAL AND DISAPPEARING...SOME OF IT MORE STRATUS-LIKE AND                
HOLDING ITS OWN. GENERAL CLEARING TREND SO FAR HAS BEEN WEST TO                 
EAST...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTED NNW TO SSE. CLEARING HAS ALSO GONE            
FASTER THAN PROGGED.                                                            
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID CLOUD SWIRL IN NE LWR MI...SLOWLY                  
DRIFTING SOUTH...AND EVEN A LTL WEST OF SOUTH. OBVIOUSLY A S/WAVE               
HERE...CENTERED IN THE 700-500MB LYR. 18Z MESOETA DID RESOLVE A VORT            
LOBE AT 21Z...THEN RAPIDLY LOSES TRACK OF IT BY 03Z. DO NOT BELIEVE             
THIS IS THE BEST SOLN. 21Z RUC AT LEAST MAINTAINS THIS S/WAVE                   
ENERGY...BUT PLACED IT TOO FAR WEST AT 00Z.                                     
AMBIENT FLOW AROUND UPR LOW SHUD PRODUCE A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK              
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...HEADING INTO NW OHIO AROUND 09Z. FEEL THAT             
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS WL PERHAPS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...BUT GENERALLY                  
MAINTAIN ITSELF. THUS...ALTHOUGH MOST THE CWA WL ACTUALLY GO                    
MO/CLEAR FOR LATE EVNG/EARLY OVERNIGHT...MOST PLACES WL ALSO SEE THE            
CLOUDS RETURN NOT LONG AFTER. WL THUS NOT GO TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH                
CLOUD CVR REST OF THE NIGHT.                                                    
HOWEVER...ENUF RAD COOLING WL OCCUR TO SUPPORT DROPPING MIN TEMPS               
MOST PLACES.                                                                    
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 191945  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
830 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE...WITH LITTLE MODIFICATION                
NEEDED. FOG REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...DEWPOINT            
DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST OVR E CNTRL MN/W CNTRL WI WHERE LEAST MIXING             
OCCURED TODAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CI/CS DIVING FROM MANITOBA               
INTO WRN MN...ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE AREA OF 60KT JET STREAK            
OVR MN/WI. 21Z RUC SHOWS THIS JET STREAK CIRRUS CONTINUING TO STREAM            
INTO MN OVRNT...PSBLY LESSENING RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE WEST. STILL          
RETURN TO LGT SE/S FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME UPSLOPE. OVERALL...EXPECT             
DENSEST FOG FM STC TO RPD...WITH LIGHTER FOG AXN-RWF. WILL ONLY TOUCH           
UP ZONES SLIGHTLY FOR WORDING. NOT YET CLEAR WHERE/IF A DENSE FOG               
ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED...BUT WILL BE MONITORING SITUATION.                    
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 192030  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
230 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
NOT A LOT OF SIG DIFF AMONG MODELS AT SFC AND 500 MB THRU 36 HRS.               
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WFNT COMING OUT OF PLAINS BY 48 HRS...BUT CAN              
RESOLVE THAT LATER. IN THE MEANTIME...ST DECK HAS BROKEN UP OVR ALL             
CWA XCP SRN TIER OF ZONES. CU IS POPPING ELSEWHERE AS ANTICIPATED.              
LOOKING FOR CONTINUED THINNING/EROSION OF ST IN SOUTH AS MOIST LYR              
QUITE THIN. XSCTNS INDICATING CONTD DRYING OF BLYR TONGT...SO PCLDY             
TO MOCLR FCST SHOULD HOLD UP...ALTHO WTH LGT WNDS...LESS CLD CVR...             
AND GRND STILL QUITE MOIST...WOULD XPCT PTCHY FG AGN OVRNGT. THIS               
ALSO COVERED IN CURRENT ZFP PKG. NONE OF THE 12Z MODELS PICKED UP               
THE VORT MAX MOVG ACRS CN TWD JAMES BAY VERY WELL...ALTHO RUC WAS               
CLOSEST. XPCT TAIL OF MID/HIGH CLDS TO SWINGING ACRS NRN MN...BUT               
VRY DRY UPR LVLS AND SUBSDC OVR RGN SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR ANY PCPN.              
INSTEAD...WILL USE PCLDY RATHER THAN MOCLR IN THE NORTH. LIKEWISE               
WTH NXT IMPULSE APCHG ERLY SAT. NXT BEST CHC OF RAIN COMES LATE SUN             
AND INTO MON AS MORE VIGOROUS S/WV COMES OVR THE RDG AND SFC FNTL               
SYSTM APPCHS FROM THE PLAINS. NGM AND AVN MOS TEMPS QUITE CLOSE AND             
SEEM RSNBL IN SHOWING A SLGT WRMG TREND OVR NXT 48 HRS AS MORE                  
SUNSHINE IS AVAIL AND PSG OF THE SFC RDG PUTS US BACK INTO A WAA                
REGIME.                                                                         
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
ERF                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 191548  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                     
FIRST PERIOD CONCERN FOCUSES ON CLOUD TRENDS.  MOIST LOW LEVEL NELY             
FLOW HAS PUSHED CLOUD EDGE INTO WESTERN ZONE FORECAST AREA...JUST               
WEST OF AXN TO RWF...ALG WK SFC TROF.  PER 12Z KMPX SOUNDING...LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED NR 925 MB.  RUC 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF             
80 TO 85 PERCENT LINING UP CLOSE TO CLOUD EDGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
SHOWS VIGOROUS S/W OVR UPR OHIO VALLEY CONT TO SLIDE EWD WHICH WOULD            
ALLOW A BIT MORE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP OVER ZFA.  LATEST                
PIREP REPORT THICKNESS OF OVERCAST 2 TO 3K SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
FAIRLY DEEP.  CLEAR AREA OF RPD HAS NOW FILLED IN WITH BKN/OVC MVFR             
CLDS. PER VSBL IMAGERY SOME THIN SPOTS SHOWING UP SO WL CONT WITH               
PARTIAL CLEARING WORDING THIS AFTN IN WI AND ERN CNTRL MN ZFA BUT               
CONT WITH M/C WORDING IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH AND WEST.                
TEMPS LOWERED MOST AREAS DUE TO PERSISTANT CLOUDS AND ADDED FOG                 
MENTION FOR TNGT TO MOST AREAS.                                                 
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 190840  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
925 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
THIS EVENING'S 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONT                  
BETWEEN LBF AND OMA.  THE 20/00Z RUN OF THE RUC INDICATES THAT THIS             
WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS THE 850MB FLOW VEERS TO THE              
SW.  THE MERRIMAN PROFILER IS ALREADY SHOWING AN INCREASING                     
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SIGNATURE...WITH THE RUC PROGGING THE                  
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION OVER S-CNTRL/SERN SD AND NERN NEB BY                   
09-12Z.  ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION...CLOUDS COULD             
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NWRN ZONES.  THEREFORE...WE HAVE              
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD WORDING IN THE FAR NW AND MINOR TWEAKS            
TO THE WINDS ACROSS THE CWFA...PER 00Z RUC FORECASTS.                           
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
MEAD                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 191948  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
900 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFT AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN           
PA AND HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN TIER OF NYS. DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER         
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PRECIP. SHOWERS ARE QUITE PERSISTENT AND SLOW MOVING        
ALTHOUGH LIGHT. ETA SHOWS ELONGATED TYPE VORT MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER          
IN REGION WHERE THESE SHOWERS SEEM TO BE MEANDERING. ALSO NOTED ON RUC          
AREA OF 850MB MOIST FLUX CONV OVER THE WHOLE CWA SO NOT QUITE SURE WHY          
SHOWERS ARE PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY OVER A SMALL AREA. MORE SHOWERS              
ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE MOVING TWD THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REACH OUR             
WESTERN ZONES BEFORE 10 PM. AREA OF RAIN OVER LAKE ERIE IS ALSO MAKING          
SLOW EWD PROGRESS.                                                              
MAIN CHG TO FORECAST WILL BE TO REMOVE TWD MORNING TIMING OF PRECIP AND         
LEAVE CHC POP. WILL KEEP LOW CHC POP ACROSS FINGER LAKES THAT WAS ADDED         
IN LAST UPDATE.                                                                 
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JML                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 200040  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
840 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC PLOT PUTS LOW PRES OVR KY. AVN LOOKS LIKE IT DID THE                 
BEST JOB WITH IT/S 12 HR SFC FCST POSITIONING. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE            
LOOPS SHOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS MOVING EWD ACRS FA ATTM. UPSTREAM RADARS            
INDICATE SCT SHRA WELL TO OUR WEST.                                             
OVERNIGHT FCST MINS LOOK GOOD WITH 12 HR FWC TEMP FCST DOING A                  
PRETTY GOOD JOB COMPARED TO 00Z OBS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INLAND              
STATIONS WHERE FWC/S RUNNING TOO COLD. WL GO WITH MCLDY OVERNIGHT.              
MARINE: WINDS E/SE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.              
21Z RUC SHOWS THIS AS WELL.                                                     
NO CHANGES PLANNED. HOPEFULLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MODELS ON 00Z               
RUN.                                                                            
PRODUCTS OUT BY 0130Z.                                                          
.NYC/OKX...NONE.                                                                
WICHROWSKI                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 192209  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
606 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
RADAR SHOWING PRECIP APPROACHING SW NY FROM THE WESTERN HALF OF LK              
ERIE...NE OHIO NW PA AND SW ONTARIO PROVINCE. LATEST RUC HANDLING               
THIS PRECIP AREA FAIRLY WELL ATTM AND IT SPREADS IT NE BY 06Z INTO              
IAG FRONTIER. HAVE UPDATED 8 WNY CNTYS TO MAKE IT SHWRS LKLY IN                 
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND CHC POPS BY MIDNGT FOR BUF-IAG REGION.                
WILL HOLD ON ANY CHANGES FOR AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST FOR NOW.                 
.BUF...NONE                                                                     
JJP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 191909  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
938 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.                         
SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD AREA OF BKN-OVC MID DECK UPSTREAM OVER               
SRN ONT AND MICH.  DEEPEST AND MOST WIDESPRAD MOISTURE EXPECTED                 
ACROSS SRN ZONES AND LATEST RUC/META AGREE. BUF 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS              
SOME CAPE WITH WEAK CAP AT 750MB. IF LONG DURATION BREAKS DO OCCUR              
EXPECT CU FIELD TO POP BUT ANY CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF               
FA. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.                                                            
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
RRM                                                                             
 ny                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
845 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
WILL ISSUE ZFP CLOSE TO WATCH EXPIRATION 9 PM. TSTM ACTION IS                   
DECREASING ...BUT ETA AND RUC CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS THE              
TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES LOW TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE                      
FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE FEED AND DYNAMICS ACROSS THE                          
CAROLINAS...SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSTMS IN AREA ESPECIALLY TOWARD              
MORNING.                                                                        
DROUGHT WAS REDUCED BY RAINS...UP TO 3-4 INCHES UNDER SOME OF THE               
SLOW MOVING TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.                                        
CWF...LOOKS FINE...NO CHANGES.                                                  
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MATHESON                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 200009  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1010 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                     
LTST SFC ANAL SHOWG BNDRY SUMWHR BTWN HAT AND CLKOUT THIS AM. FPSN7             
BLOWG AT 28 KT THIS HR...IN VCNTY OF CNVCTN. OTHR BUOYS 5 TO 10 KT              
AS GRAD RMNS WK. TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LWR 80S AT 10 AM. TEMPS                
SHUD BE A LTL LWR THAN YSTRDY WI INCRSD CLD CVR ALNG THE CST. HWVR              
MID 90S INLND STL GUD. UPR AIR ANAL SHOWG CPL S/WVS TO OUR W AND UPR            
JET POISED TO ROTATE THRU THE TROF.                                             
LTST RUC SHOWG S/WV TO RMN TO OUR W THRU TDY. HWVR WE WL BE IN RR OF            
3H JET THIS AFTN. FNT APPRS TO MEANDR ARND ITS CRRNT POSN THRU THE              
DAY. E/W ORIENTED FNTS TEND TO BE WX MKRS FOR US. THIS COMBND WI UPR            
JET XPCT TO SEE ACTVTY THIS AFTN. MA UP POPS FOR TDY. HWVR BLV CHCS             
WL BE AFT THIS FRST PD AS MAIN S/WV ROTATES THRU.                               
HT INDCS BRDR LN IN INLND CTS. WL MNTN HI HT INDEX IN ZONES BUT WONT            
PUT A SPECIAL OUT FOR IT.                                                       
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 191410  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS                                 
900 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
...CLOUDS/FOG FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT...                                      
S/W RIDING THRU ERN MONTANA PROVIDING ARC OF CI INTO ERN ND AS CLOUD            
RIDES UP AND OVER RIDGE. MODELS SERIOUSLY UNDERDONE ON                          
EXTENT/PLACEMENT OF THIS MOISTURE INCLUDING LATEST RUC. SMALL AREA              
OF TSRA EARLIER TONIGHT IN SE MT PUSHED INTO SW ND AND WEAKENED WITH            
BLOWOFF CLOUDS PUSHING NOW TOWARDS KBIS. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES                 
HI PRES EDGING INTO WRN WI WITH BROAD LOW PRES WITH A FEW CENTERS               
ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES.                                                        
LAYERED RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS U/L FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN                
WAKE OF S/W TO OUR NW. BULK OF MOISTURE ABOVE H7 SO WILL CHANGE MOST            
SETS RRV AND WEST TO PCLDY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXCEPT BCMG MCLDY DVL            
SET WHERE 90% H5 RH PROGGED BY 12Z. ALSO TOYED WITH ADDING WDLY SCT             
MENTION FOR PRECIP NW CWA AS 00Z RUC SPITS OUT FEW HUNDREDTHS BY 12Z            
AS S/W TROF NEARS AND PROGGED SOUNDING GOES TO -2 LI.                           
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE BLO H6 AND                
SHOWALTERS STILL ABOVE ZERO. BEST H85-H7 WAA HOLDS INTO CNTRL SD AND            
THETA-RIDGE REMAINS PARKED IN WRN DAKOTAS IN ADVANCE OF NEARLY                  
STATIONARY SFC LO CENTERS. GOOD PVA ALSO STILL IN NW ND BY 12Z SO               
WILL LEAVE IT AT BCMG MCLDY ATTM.                                               
TD/S HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE THRU EVE AS LIGHT S FLO SETS UP BEHIND               
SFC HI PRES. COMBINATION OF HI CLOUD/LIGHT S GRAD AND INFLUX OF                 
HIGHER TD/S LEAD ME TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT TEMPS UP A BIT FROM CURRENT              
VALUES. SOME CREDENCE LEAD TO THIS DECISION BASED UPON VIEWING BOTH             
LAMP AND LATE RUC MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS RRV STATIONS ONLY NEAR             
60 FOR LOWS BY 12Z FRI BUT WONT RAISE THEM THAT MUCH ATTM.                      
FOG CHANCES APPEAR LESS THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH THE ADDITION OF HI              
CLOUDS AND MOVEMENT OF SFC RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCES                 
SHOULD BE IN ERN CWA WHERE LESSER CLOUD EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ANY                 
AREAS THAT DO CLEAR FOR AT TIME WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE WITH RELATIVELY          
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WIND. WILL THEREFORE              
LEAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN ZONES EXCEPT FAR NW CWA.                         
UPDATE OUT BY 920 PM CDT.                                                       
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 192030  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
940 AM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...                                                   
COOL CRISP FALL-LIKE MORNING YIELDING TO STRONG INSOLATION CURRENTLY            
ACROSS REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATION AND SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICTED         
CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED ALONG NORTHERN          
HALF OF RED RIVER VALLEY.                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z RUC SHIFTS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS          
UPSTREAM 5H RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES.         
STEEP 85H-7H LAPSE RATES NEARING ADIABATIC CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH              
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ESPECIALLY EAST SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CU            
FORMATION DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED         
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE.                                                       
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
BERG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 190846  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
807 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RT                 
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG H25 JET BECOMES MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED             
OVER THE CWA. THE 18Z ETA HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BY 03Z              
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND THERE IS A CORRESPONDING RESPONSE IN              
THE VVEL/S AND LAYER RH/S. HOWEVER...THE 1000-850 LAYER IS MARKED               
BY DIVERGENCE...WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BNDRY             
W OF THE MTNS. ALSO...THE 21Z RUC HAS MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL                   
DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LAYER RELH/S. I THINK THE 18Z ETA MAKES A                  
LITTLE MORE SENSE AS CONVECTION IN ERN TN IS ABOUT WHERE THE ENTRANCE           
REGION WAS PROGGED TO BE. THUS...DRY LLVLS SHOULD RECOVER SOME AS               
FLOW BACKS TO SERLY...THOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE                
CONVECTION. W/LACK OF SIG SFC CONVERGENCE...WL DROP POPS BACK TO 30             
FOR ALL NON-MTNS COUNTIES AND KEEP 40S UP FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY.                 
I THINK WE STAND A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING LOW CLOUDS                  
OVERNIGHT W/SE FLOW...THOUGH WE ARE FAIRLY CLEAR ATTM. THUS WILL GO             
BECOMING MOSTLY IN ZONES.                                                       
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 192354  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
940 AM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
A FEW SMALL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.                  
ON THE SURFACE MAP...A SURFACE LOW WAS NORTHEAST OF KPAH WITH A COLD            
FRONT TRAILING ACROSS THE MO BOOTHEEL TO WEST CENTRAL AR.                       
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.            
REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP SMALL POPS. LOOKS LIKE GREATEST             
CHANCE WILL BE AREAS EAST OF KMKL...AS NOTED IN DAY1 SEVERE OUTLOOK.            
1200 UTC RUC MODEL INDICATES INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE              
AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER AIR MAPS INDICATE              
MORE WEAK ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CAPES WILL BE              
IN THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE AND LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN. MAJOR                 
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. ALSO...                
AREAS SOUTHWEST OF KMEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED.                              
ZONES WILL BE SLIGHTLY REALIGNED INCLUDING ADJUSTMENT TO INCLUDE A              
LARGER CHUNK OF MS AND PART OF AR IN THE 95 TO 100 TEMPERATURE                  
RANGE.                                                                          
.MEM...NONE.                                                                    
SH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOHX 191427  tn                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
SHORT TERM...HAVE NOTICED A NICE FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE                
NORTHWEST GULF TODAY JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH.  TD3                  
PROVIDING GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILTY INTO THIS AREA AND THIS IS NOT               
BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. ACTIVITY ALREADY RAPIDLY SPREADING            
OVER BRO COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT ACTIVITY TO AFFECT CWA COASTAL               
WATERS AND POSSIBLY COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT. ETA/AVN/RUC MOVING                
TROUGH INLAND OVER SOUTH TX TONIGHT SO FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS            
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                                                      
LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL SHIFT WEST THROUGH               
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR TROUGH TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND.  1000-850 MB               
FLOW CONTINUES TO HINT AT SEABREZE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.             
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE PROVIDE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED             
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL HAVE 20/30 POPS OVER AREA WITH UPPER TROUGH IN             
VICINITY.                                                                       
EXTENDED...WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK WITH TD3...WILL HAVE CHC               
POPS IN EXTENDED.                                                               
MARINE...WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CWF               
BEGINNING TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...WEAK GRADIENT TO CONTINUE.  NO                  
FLAGS.                                                                          
CRP BB 075/095 076/093 076 72233                                                
VCT BB 073/096 074/093 074 72133                                                
LRD BB 077/100 077/097 076 72111=                                               
AP...72 (SYN)                                                                   
TH...71 (MESO)                                                                  
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 191948  tx                                      

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
145 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
UPR HIGH OVR W TX FCSTD TO BUILD WWD OVR THE SRN RCKYS BY TNGT AND              
FRI AND THEN OVR THE SWRN STATES/FOUR CRNRS RGN BY SAT.  THIS WL                
SET UP A NWLY UPR FLOW REGIME ACRS THE PNHDLS.  SFC FLOW OUT OF E               
AND SE...UPSLP...AND PROVIDING LO LVL MSTR FOR PSBL CNVTN ACRS                  
THE PNHDLS.  LTST RUC SHOWING ANOTHER SHRTWV DROPPING SEWD OUT OF               
CO BY 03Z FRI WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR CNVTN ONCE AGAIN                   
TNGT.  VSBL STLT IMAGERY SHOWING A CNVCTVLY-INDUCED SHRTWV OVR THE              
NRN TX PNDL ATTM DRIFTING SEWD.  WL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS FEATURE                
PLAYS OUT...BUT WL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS TNGT.  MID AND UPR             
LVL MSTR BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ORIENTED NW TO SE FM CO DOWN               
INTO THE PNHDLS.  FEEL ANY CNVTN THAT DVLPS ACRS NRN NM OR SRN CO WL            
PUSH SEWD INTO THE NWRN SXNS OF THE FA TNGT.  STILL BEST FAVORED AREA           
TNGT WL BE NWRN SXNS.  ATMS MAY TAKE TIL LTR THIS AFTN TO RECOVER FM            
LST NGT/S CNVTN...SO FEEL OVRNGT SHRA/S AND TSRA/S STILL LIKELY.  WL            
MENTION CNVTN MAINLY DURING OVRNGT HRS AS MOST OF THE ACTVTY WL DVLP            
MID TO LT AFTN OVR HIER TRRN OF CO AND NM AND THEN MOV INTO THE FA BY           
EVE HRS.                                                                        
IN THE EXTENDED FCST PD SUN THRU TUE...NWLY FLOW REGIME CONTS ACRS              
THE FA WITH SERIES OF SHRTWV/S DROPPING SEWD INTO THE PNHDLS THRU               
THE PD.  WL KEEP SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES                
THRU THE FCST PD ALL SXNS.                                                      
PRELIM CCF:                                                                     
AMA  063/091 064/089 064  2-2                                                   
GUY  063/090 064/088 063  3-3                                                   
DHT  061/089 062/087 062  3-4                                                   
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
SCHNEIDER                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEPZ 191809  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1027 AM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                     
AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL JUST NORTH OF THE RED               
RIVER...BUT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY PUSHED WINDS OUT OF THE              
NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE METROPLEX AND A MORE WESTERLY                   
DIRECTION IN KACT AND KCLL.  MOST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 10KTS                   
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY BUT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD STAY.  NGM               
TRIES TO PICK UP WINDS TOMORROW TO 10-15KT RANGE...BUT AVN AND ETA              
KEEP WINDS BELOW 10KTS AND WILL GO CLOSER TO THAT GUIDANCE.  OTHER              
THAT SCATTERED CUMULUS...WHICH IS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST              
OF METROPLEX...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.              
84                                                                              
1030 AM PUBLIC DISCUSSION....                                                   
CURRENT FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING BUT WILL MAKE A              
FEW TWEAKS. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO METROPLEX LATE THIS               
MORNING WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE              
RED RIVER...JUST NORTH OF KADM AT 15Z. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH              
SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH                 
WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE            
CONVERGENCE INDICATED BY LAPS...NEW ETA...AND RUC...WILL ADD SOME               
ISOLATED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS             
FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE              
SOUTHERN ZONES AND WILL ADJUST WINDS THERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                  
TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME. (80)                                       
.FTW....NONE.                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 191502  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
911 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
WATCH CONTS ACROSS THE FAR SW PART OF THE CWA THIS EVE AS CLUSTERS              
OF TSRA ASSOCD WITH UVM/PVA IN ADVANCE OF KY S/W ROLL EWD ALONG OLD             
OUTFLOW BNDRY. INIT MESO TYPE FTR THAT PRODUCED WIND DAMAGE (PER INVERTED       
V TYPE RAOB) IN SE WVA NOW PULLING NE OF THE AREA...HOWEVER REG                 
RADAR LOOPS INDICATE ADNTL CVRG OFF TO THE WEST. BIGGEST QUEST WITH             
AMT OF CVRG OVRNGT AS SCENARIO BEGINS TO SHIFT FROM A CONVECT SITU              
EARLY ON TO MORE OF AN OVERRNG/WAA PTRN FRI MORN. EVEN WITH LOSS OF             
HEATING...THINK ENOUGH UPR SUPPORT/DIFFLUENCE AND EVOLVING LOW LEVEL            
CNVRGNC GIVEN INCRSG PWATS TO CONT DECENT POPS AS BOTH RUC/MESO-ETA             
SHOW DEEP RH LATER INTO FRI. THIS PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER THE WEST               
AND NORTH WHERE PLAN TO HANG ON TO GOOD CHC/LKLYS OVRNGT...BUT MAY              
TWEAK SERN ZONES TWD CHCY GIVEN LACK OF GOOD LIFT TIL LATE. OTRW                
GOING FCST APRS GNRLY ON TRACK WITH ANY ADTNL CHANGES MAINLY TO                 
TEMPS JUST BEFORE RELEASE.                                                      
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KRNK 192233  va                                      

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
150 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER FAIR AND WARM THROUGH                  
SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE                 
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST. MOISTURE IN                
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO              
THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN DESERTS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.                
PM MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD MODERATE MARINE INVERSION WARMING 10 DEG IN             
700 FT FROM 56 DEG AT 1300 FT TO 66 DEG AT 2000 FT. THIN MOISTURE               
LAYER AT 12000 FT YIELDS A STABLE SOUNDING WITH K-INDEX OF -6.                  
MODERATE 5 MB ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY DRAGGED THE MARINE LAYER INTO            
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND VALLEYS...AND MAY PUT FOG IN THE WESTERN                 
INLAND EMPIRE BY SUNRISE.                                                       
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MODELS SHOWED A DRYING TREND IN UPPER FLOW DUE            
TO WEAK TROF APRCHNG NCALIF. BUT AS EVIDENCED TODAY...THAT TROF                 
BARELY MOVED SOUTH...AND WAS NOT ABLE TO PUSH THE MONSOON FLOW EAST.            
THUS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERATED BAJA TSTRMS WHICH PROPIGATED UP             
THE MTS INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY THU PM. JULIAN GOT 7/10 OF AN INCH.               
A BIT OF A SURPRISE!                                                            
RUC SHOWS A SIMILAR PATTERN FOR TODAY. IS ALSO SHOWS CYCLONIC SHEAR             
VORTICITY OVER SCALIF DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF               
THE BRISK MONSSON FLOW. SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF MT TSTRMS TODAY             
AND SAT. SOME DRYING OUT AND LESS VORTICITY OVER SAN DIEGO MTS                  
INDICATED FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD BE A COMPLETE               
REVERSAL OF EARLIER SCENARIOS. MONSOON SEEMS TO BE HERE...SO MIGHT              
AS WELL KEEP MT/DES TSTRM CHANCES GOING DURING NEXT WEEKS HEAT WAVE.            
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MACKECHNIE                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KLOX 200424  ca                                      

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
249 AM MDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
WELL ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW ONGOING TONIGHT APPEARS WILL CONTINUE             
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PLUME SHOWS A FEW THIN SPOTS IN BETWEEN           
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...MOST OF WHICH ARE HANDLED WELL BY THE 3 PRIMARY           
MODELS...WITH A FEW NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS. VORT CIRCULATION NE OF TUCSON           
TRAVELING NNW ALONG AZ/NM BORDER RESOLVED ONLY BY RUC WHICH CARRIES             
THIS FEATURE AND ITS PCPN N INTO CO 15Z. VORT NE OF DELTA TRAVELING             
SLOWER THAN 00Z MODELS PROGGED THUS THE LINGERING MAS OF PCPN                   
CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THERE WILL BE                 
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER WRN CO AT SUNRISE WILL LITTLE PCPN THIS MORNING           
...BUT THEN SE AZ VORT CENTER SHOULD HELP CONVECTION AND PCPN TO                
BEGIN EARLIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. ALL PROGS SHOW UNRELENTING                  
MONSOON RELATED CLOUDS AND PCPN CONTINUING THRU SAT AND THRU THE                
WEEKEND ON THE PART OF THE AVN AND MRF. MODELS SHOW THAT SATURDAY               
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY...COULD BE VERY WET. WITH SATELLITE SHOWING                  
ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUR OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A            
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN TO SUPPLY MORE MOISTURE...WILL            
BE ABLE TO KEEP HIGHER POPS OVER MUCH OF CWA...ESPECIALLY THE                   
SOUTHERN 2/3RD...THROUGH THE EXTENDED.   CUOCO                                  
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MAINTAIN            
A NORMAL LEVEL OF WEATHER AWARENESS TODAY.                                      
.GJT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KBOU 192049  co                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
845 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
WILL ISSUE ZFP CLOSE TO WATCH EXPIRATION 9 PM. TSTM ACTION IS                   
DECREASING ...BUT ETA AND RUC CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS THE              
TROUGH FROM GREAT LAKES LOW TO THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNRISE                      
FRI...INCREASING MOISTURE FEED AND DYNAMICS ACROSS THE                          
CAROLINAS...SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED TSTMS IN AREA ESPECIALLY TOWARD              
MORNING.                                                                        
DROUGHT WAS REDUCED BY RAINS...UP TO 3-4 INCHES UNDER SOME OF THE               
SLOW MOVING TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.                                        
CWF...LOOKS FINE...NO CHANGES.                                                  
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
MATHESON                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 200009  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
320 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE DURATION OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE EAST THIS           
MORNING...AND TSRA CHANCES IN LATER PERIODS.                                    
IN THE NEAR TERM...FOG HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED IN EASTERN COUNTIES...               
WHICH ARE STILL UNDER SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO THE             
EAST.  06Z RUC HANGS ON TO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MUCH OF               
THE MORNING...AND WITH WEAKER SUNSHINE AND LIMITED MIXING DUE TO                
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RIDGE AXIS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG               
THROUGH MID MORNING FOR EASTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES.                          
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER NERN             
MT/ADJACENT AREA OF CANADA PER WATER VAPOR LOOP.  MORE CLOSELY                  
FOLLOWED ETA/AVN SOLUTION WITH THIS WAVE...DROPPING IT SEWD ACROSS              
ERN SD OVERNIGHT.  CURRENTLY DEALING WITH PRETTY LIMITED MOISTURE...            
AND BROAD HIGH OVER CENTRAL PART OF US WILL PREVENT TAPPING OF                  
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE...BUT MODELS AGREE IN SHOWING GRADUAL INCREASE             
IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5               
INCHES BY 06Z/21.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY/WIND             
SHIFT LINE ACROSS SW/SCNTRL SD INTO NERN NEBRASKA.  MODELS HINT AT              
SLIDING THIS NEWD INTO CWA...WHICH COULD SERVE AS LO LEVEL FOCUS FOR            
DEVELOPMENT AS WAVE DROPS SEWD INTO AREA.  AM A LITTLE UNCERTAIN                
ABOUT EASTWARD SHIFT OF SLIGHT RISK AREA...NOW COVERING MUCH OF                 
CWA...ESP SINCE LATEST ETA NOW SHOWING LOWER CAPES/GREATER CIN FOR              
TONIGHT THAN 12Z/19 RUN...BUT ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AT LEAST CHANCE                
TSRA POPS ALL AREAS IN TONIGHT PERIOD.  WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TSRA               
IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS WAVE CONTINUES            
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVER AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART A DRY SATURDAY             
SEEMS REASONABLE.                                                               
.FSD...NONE.                                                                    
 HAMEN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 200208  sd                                      

SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA FORECAST DISCUSSION               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
813 PM CDT THU AUG 19 1999                                                      
THE RUC GUIDANCE SHOWS A CESSATION OF RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
TONIGHT. THE RUC HIGHLIGHTS THE TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC               
TROUGH) EDDY OVER THE LOWER WATERS OF TEXAS MOVING WEST. WITH THIS IN           
MIND...I SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.                  
BPT 77/98/74/95 0102                                                            
LCH 77/98/75/94 0102                                                            
LFT 77/97/75/94 0102                                                            
AEX 74/97/72/96 0001                                                            
8/21                                                                            
.LCH...                                                                         
TX...OZONE ACTION DAY FOR TXZ201-215-216.                                       
LA...NONE.                                                                      
 la                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1050 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                     
...UPDATE FOCUSES ON CLOUDS...                                                  
MSAS SFC ANALYSIS AT 14Z SHOWING 1022MB SFC HI PRESSURE CENTERED                
OVER CWA. VIS IMAGERY SHOWING FOG/STRATUS IN UPR LAKES BURING OFF               
RAPIDLY...FASTER THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. 12Z GRB AND MSP RAOBS                  
CONTINUE TO DEPICT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...STRONGEST AT MSP. EXPECT              
INVERSION WILL RETARD CU DEVELOPMENT ALMOST COMPLETELY THIS                     
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WK SHORTWV ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE                 
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WX.            
12Z RUC SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH WEAK QVECTOR DIV DISSIPATING OVR CWA            
BY 18Z. BASED ON IR IMAGERY EXTRAPOLATION...SOME SCT HI CIRRUS WILL             
LIKELY STREAM INTO W CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORWV               
DROPPING SE THRU NORTH DAKOTA.                                                  
UPSHOT IS THAT I WILL UPDATE FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST               
ZONES. TEMPS/WINDS LOOK GOOD...WITH SUPPORT FROM LAMP GUIDANCE.                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 201432  mi                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
913 AM MDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
AM PLANNING TO UPDATE SOME OF THE WESTERN ZONES FOR ISOLATED                    
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
A LOOK AT THE RUC RUN FOR 20/12Z INDICATES SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY              
MOVING UP INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR               
IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THIS.  MOST OF THIS ENERGY SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE        
COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT ENOUGH IS THERE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                           
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH AT THE 500 MB LEVEL OVER           
CENTRAL MONTANA.  THE TROUGH IS STRONGER AT THE 700 MB LEVEL.  ACCORDING        
TO THE RUC RUN...THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND BE CLEAR         
OF THE EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS LEAVING THE EASTERN            
ZONES DRY UNTIL SATURDAY LOOKS GOOD.                                            
HAVE NO ARGUMENT WITH THE TEMPERATURES.  THEY ARE IN THE BALLPARK FROM          
WHAT THE 20/12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL.  CHB                                          
BIL BB 093/062 094/063 094 52023                                                
LVM .. 091/056 091/... ... 52223                                                
HDN .. 095/061 096/... ... 52023                                                
MLS .. 095/064 095/064 ... 52002                                                
4BQ .. 095/055 095/... ... 52002                                                
BHK .. 091/054 091/... ... 52002                                                
SHR BB 094/054 094/055 094 52023                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KMSO 201503  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
330 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...AM FOG/TEMPS/CHC AND LOCATION OF PRECIP                
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST IR SHOWING TWO AREAS OF INTEREST...THE FIRST IS            
A STG SHRTWV OVR MT...PRODUCING CLDS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A FEW STORMS            
NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER.  THE SECOND IS AN MCS OVR NW KS WITH A STG               
SHRTWV IN ERN CO.  THE LATEST SFC CHART HAD SFC LO PRES OVR NE WY               
WITH A WRMFNT IN SW SD.  THE MRR PROFILER HAD STG 40KT H85 WNDS AND             
WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA DVLPMNT NR THIS               
FNT.  THE RUCII GRAPHICS SHOWED STG WAA/STEEP LAPSE RATES/WK UVV AND            
CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. FOG WISE...OMA WAS DOWN TO 11/2SM WITH 2-4SM            
VSBYS IN WRN IA.                                                                
...FORECAST...WITH LGT SFC WNDS OVR THE ENTIRE CWA AND LGT H85 WNDS             
ESP IN THE SE HALF OF THE CWA AND 0 TO 1 DEG C DEWPOINT                         
SPREADS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE THE ZONES.                 
THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR (ETA APPEARS THE BEST) WITH THE SLOW EWD                 
PROGRESSION OF THE UPR RIDGE INTO THE PLNS STATES...AND THE SERIES              
OF SHRTWVS THAT TOP THE RIDGE AND MOV THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO ERN NEB             
AND IA THRU THE PD.  PARTS OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA MOST AT RISK FOR               
PRECIP THIS EVE THRU MIDDAY SAT.  THE ETA/NGM GENERATE PRECIP IN NE             
NEB BY 06Z AND CONTINUES WITH LIGHT PRECIP THRU MIDDAY (ETA) AND SAT            
EVE (NGM).  UPR LVL DIV/UVV IS STGEST AT 06Z ON BOTH THE NGM/ETA AND            
WAA/Q-VECTOR FORCING CONT FOR PARTS OF THE FCST AREA MOST OF THE PD             
AT 18Z TOD.  H85 DEWPOINTS RMN HIGHEST OVR THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA.          
FOCUS FOR INITIAL TSRA DVLPMTN WOULD BE ALONG AN E-W WRMFNT OVR SRN             
SD WITH SFC LO PRES OVR NW NEB.  CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE PROP TO BE            
SSE.  THE THETA-E RIDGE/CAPE AXIS RMNS TO THE W AND THIS IS WHY THE             
AREA IS UNDER WAA FOR SO LONG.  ETA FCST SNDINGS SHOW BOTH OMA/LNK              
MOST UNSTABLE AT 12Z...WITH OFK AND SUX MOST UNSTABLE FROM 00Z ON.              
WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...WILL INCREASE THE POPS IN THE N AND                 
INCLUDE THE CHC FOR TSRA FOR THE NRN ZONES THRU THE FCST PD.  OMA               
SWD...BEST CHC WILL BE AFT MIDNIGHT AND INTO SAT AM.                            
WOULD EXPECT SOME CLDS TO WORK THEIR WAY E WITH THE STORMS IN THE               
WEST FOR P/C MOST CWA...AND BEC P/S N WITH APPROACH OF THE NRN                  
STREAM SHRTWV.  CWA TO INCR CLDCOVER NW TO SE.  TEMPS SEASONALLY                
COOL THU...SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL TOD.  CLDS TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN             
NRN AND CNTRL CWFA SAT AND CLOSE TO GUID.                                       
NO SIG CHGS TO THE EXTENDED.                                                    
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
ZAPOTOCNY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 200754  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1020 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                     
RUC 250MB WIND PROG SHOWS RRQ OF JET SLIPPING THROUGH CAROLINAS WITH            
BEST DIVERGENCE REGION ALOFT OVER UPSTATE THIS MORNING AND DRIFTING             
TOWARD THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.  UPPER AIR VERIFIES THIS.                       
CONVECTION ALONG NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE FIRING ALONG WHAT            
APPEARS TO BE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  CAPES AROUND 1500-2000J IN UPSTATES            
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S.  EXPECT THAT AS              
MAIN VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND TROUGH BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION              
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH.  ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY MOVING TOWARD              
CAROLINAS LATER TODAY BUT STRONG DRYING THROUGH DEEP LAYER OF AIR               
MASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIP.   WILL ADJUST ZONES TO                
REFLECT THIS TREND.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE             
CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WILL WARM THINGS            
RATHER QUICKLY.                                           DELGADO               
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 201405  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1001 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                     
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. SOME SAT PROBLEMS THIS         
MORN...BUT VAPOR CONTINUES TO INDICATE VORT ENERGY IN E TENN WITH               
LEADING EDGE OF DRYING ALOFT MOVG INTO UPSTATE AND N GA. LATEST RUC             
CONTINUES VORT ENERGY SE ACROSS AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH SOME             
DRYING ALOFT. FCST INSTABILITIES NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY DUE TO LOW            
LEVEL COOLING FROM CLDS/CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DUE TO SOME DYNAMICS FROM         
VORT...UPPER WIND FIELDS...AND ANY LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE             
BOUNDARIES...TSRA DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED. THIS ECHOES LATEST SPC DAY        
1 OUTLOOK. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES A BAND OF TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG            
APPARENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS CENT SC INTO CSRA. WILL UP                  
POPS/INCREASE CLD CVR AND LOWER MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF           
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER BAND TSRA FORMING ALONG MOISTURE CONVG BOUNDARY AND           
REGION OF -6 LI UPSTATE/NE GA...INDICATED BY BOTH RUC/MESO ETA. CLD CVR         
DIFFICULT DUE TO SAT PROBLEMS...OBS INDICATE FOG/LOW CLDS UPSTATE/N             
GA/TENN WHICH MAY MIX OUT. WILL GO VRBL CLDS AND INCREASE POP/LWR MAX           
TEMP NORTH.                                                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 200723  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
950 AM MDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW NEAR KPHP WITH WEAK WARM FRONT            
INTO NORTHEAST SD. SYSTEM BEING SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE ZIPPING                  
ACROSS ND PER 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOUR LOOP. ANOTHER             
WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER MT. THE EFFECT OF THIS WAVE AND                       
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING.                                 
THE 12Z RUC INITIALIZED ALRIGHT AND AT 15Z IT REPRESENTED REALITY.              
ND SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE IT/S INFLUENCE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS                   
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALLOWS SKIES TO BRIGHTEN AND TEMPERATURES TO              
SOAR. 12Z KUNR SOUNDING SUPPORTS LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS. AFTERNOON                 
MODIFICATION INDICATES 2KJ/KG CAPE AVAILABLE...BUT 1-2C CAP WILL BE             
IN PLACE. MT SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TSRA IN THE                   
HILLS...AND THEN ROLLING INTO PARTS OF THE PLAINS. THIS IS GENERALLY            
COVERED IN THE FORECAST AND WILL NOT CHANGE. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY            
DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST SD IN RESPONSE TO TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH             
INTO THE NE PANHANDLE. WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                           
GIVEN PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS...WILL BUMP UP FORECAST FOR                     
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. WILL BROADEN NORTHWEST SD HIGHS               
SOMEWHAT.                                                                       
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 201515  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                     
FOG HAS DISSIPATED NICELY ACROSS WRN ZONE FORECAST AREA IN REGION OF            
INCREASED BUT STILL WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.  FEW AREAS OF FOG/LOW              
CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH MID MORNING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS              
SHOULD CONT TO THIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  COOL POOL REMAINS OVR             
ERN AREAS FAVORING BKN CU REDEVELOPMENT FOR AFTN HOURS.  MID/HIGH               
LVL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER WRN AREAS AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS S/W.             
IN FACT...APPEARED TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE PER LATEST WATER               
VAPOR IMAGERY AT 15Z...NR ND/SASK/MAN INTERSECTION.  BROAD AREA OF              
7H MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WITH 8H DEWPTS AROUND 10            
DEGREES AT BIS THIS MORNING.  WK 250H JET OF 50 KTS AIDING WARM AIR             
ADVECTION DYNAMICS IN PRODUCING CONT -SHRA/-TSRA ACRSS CNTRL ND.                
PER LATEST RUC GUIDANCE...MAIN WAA FORCING REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST             
THIS AFTN IN ERN DAKOTAS BUT SOME AFFECTS FM LEFT EXIT RGN PUSHING              
INTO WEST CNTRL MN.  HENCE WL INTRODUCE SML POPS FOR PRECIP IN AXN              
AREA.  LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.                                      
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 200845  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                      
FCST CHALLENGE...CHC TSRA FIRST PD.                                             
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES OVR WRN SD...MOVG SLWLY                      
EWD...WITH E-W WRMFNT EXTENDING THRU SERN SD.  SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDS             
INTO WRN OK.  MORNING UPPER AIR CONTS TO DEPICT 500MB RDG OVR SRN               
ROCKIES...WITH NWLY MID TROP FLOW OVR CWFA.  EMBEDDED PAC NW SHORT              
WAVE TROF HAS TOPPED THIS RDG...WITH CURRENT LOCATION OVR ND.  THE              
OVERNIGHT MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN WRN KS HAS HAD WARMING TOPS MOST OF             
THE DAY...AND CONTS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SEWD.                                    
MAIN FCST FOCUS WL BE ON THE INTERACTION OF THE SD WRMFNT AND 500MB             
WAVE.  THO MOISTURE HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY LIMITED...THANKS TO SFC             
RDG INTO WRN OK...A POOL OF HIER DEWPOINTS REMAINS OVR ERN NEBR INTO            
SERN SD.  RETURN 850MB MOISTURE AROUND PERIPHERY OF HI TRYING TO                
WORK BACK INTO WRN NEBR...THO SLOW.  WITH VEERING WND PROFILE...RUC             
HAS PLUME OF CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OVR                   
ROCKIES AND WRN SD FCST TO ADVECT AHEAD OF 500MB WAVE...AND IN VCNTY            
OF SFC WRMFNT BY 06Z.  WAA /AND 850-700 Q CONVERGENCE /INCREASES AT             
850MB OVR ERN SD...COINCIDENT WITH DEEPER LIFT INVOF 500MB SHORT                
WAVE.                                                                           
CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS HOW FAR S TSRA WL EXTEND.  PREVIOUS MODELS               
AGREED ON DEVELOPING TSRA OVR SERN SD...THEN MOVG PRECIP SEWD INTO              
WRN IA AND NERN NEBR.  OLD ETA RUN SEEMED TO BULLS-EYE THE BEST THREAT          
WITH A SLUG OF 300MB DIV ACRS SD...THEN INTO NWRN IA.  CURRENT                  
EVOLUTION AND 12Z RUNS INDICATE THAT INITIATION MAY BE FARTHER                  
N...AFFECTING MAINLY SD AND SWRN MN AT NOSE OF WEAK LLJ.  HPC AND               
SPC ALSO PINPOINT THIS AREA.  WL GENERALLY FOLLOW ETA/RUC SOLUTION OF           
PRECIP...AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE N...WITH SOME LINGERING CHC TSRA                
DURING THE MORNING.                                                             
THIS WEEKEND...SFC TROF TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO LEE SLOPES...WITH                 
WEAK SLY SFC FLOW PREVAILING.  SUBTROPICAL PLUME STAYS OVR SRN AND              
CNTRL ROCKIES...WITH MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER WAVE MOVG INTO WRN KS            
LATE SAT OR SUN.  WL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE FOR CHC            
OF PRECIP LATER PERIODS.                                                        
FOR TEMPS...GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN RUNS...SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR                
CHANGE FM PREV FCST.                                                            
.OMA...NONE                                                                     
BZ                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGID 201944  ne                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE                                        
1223 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 1999                                                     
...CHALLENGE IS POPS EACH DAY...                                                
STABLE PNA PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS CONUS...WITH RIDGE OVER WEST AND            
TROF OVER THE EAST. IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING INTO          
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAKING FOR HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES                   
THERE. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA PROGGED TO RETROGRADE BACK TO SE           
WY/NE CO BY 00Z SAT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS OK...BUT AM TEMPTED TO TAKE           
OUT POPS IN SOUTHERN ZONES ALTOGETHER.                                          
MODELS...ETA SEEMS TO HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE THAN NGM AT LEAST ON          
SHORT TERM SHORT WAVE FEATURES. MESOETA AND RUC SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN          
A LOBE OF THE SHORT WAVE TO SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.          
MESOETA ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL. EITHER THE MESOETA AND          
RUC ARE ABOUT 8 HOURS TOO LATE IN THEIR FORECAST...OR WE HAVE YET TO            
SEE MORE LITTLE SHOWERS.  AVN SIMILAR TO ETA THROUGH FORECAST                   
PERIOD...WITH USUAL BIASES OF OVERDONE PRECIP FIELDS. AVN ALSO KEEPS            
SFC LOW A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN ETA WITH REGARD TO NORTHEAST                 
NEBRASKA. PREFER ETA SOLN OVERALL.                                              
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IN THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALL...HARD           
TO RESOLVE SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS         
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  ANOTHER ROUND COULD BE COMING FOR EXTREME           
SOUTHWEST NEB SATURDAY NIGHT UNLESS IT IS HELD FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST.          
SINCE MEAN RIDGE AXIS IS SHIFTING TO LEE SLOPES OF ROCKIES                      
SATURDAY...DON'T FEEL PRECIP CHANCES ARE WARRANTED FOR SAT NIGHT.               
THINGS SEEM TO COME TOGETHER BETTER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW          
POPS THEN PROBABLY.                                                             
EXTENDED...MRF HAS GREAT BASIN HIGH AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. SHORTWAVE              
STILL FORECAST TO TOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER          
POSSIBLE REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT'S MCS OVER NORTHWEST KS ON SUNDAY                 
NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF IT STARTING OUT IN NEB                  
PANHANDLE AND MIGRATING SOUTHEAST. NO LONGER SEE ANYTHING TO SUGGEST            
MONDAY WILL BE ANYTHING BUT DRY AT THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY LOOKS PRETTY            
DRY ALSO DESPITE SFC TROF BECAUSE MOISTURE IS LACKING.                          
.LBF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SLM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 201551  ne