AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
930 PM EST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PRECIP FIELD IS APPROACHING THE                 
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. RUC SUGGESTS PRECIP WILL END ACROSS                 
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFRESH WORDING BUT           
WILL WAIT UNTIL LATE IN ORDER TO DETERMINE PRECIP TREND. WILL LIKELY            
AT LEAST LOWER POPS TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN-MOST ZONE AND REMOVE               
MENTION OF POPS IN THE WESTERN ZONES. OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS                 
APPEAR ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE NO OTHER CHANGES.                                 
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
LCM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EST MON DEC 10 2001                                                     
WV LOOP DEPICTING SHEARED OUT NRN STREAM SHRTWV FM HUDSON BAY INTO              
NERN MN ATTM. WEAK TROUGH CO-LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF SHRTWV HAS PASSED            
CMX AND IWD THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF STRATUS AS THE CALLING CARD.            
06Z ETA 280K (H9) ISENTROPIC SFC SHOWED THIS WELL ALTHOUGH ABOUT 6HR            
TOO SLOW WITH MOVEMENT TO EAST. FIELD OF SUB 3KFT STRATUS ALSO                  
FILLING IN BEHIND TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH H95-H85 THERMAL TROUGH.                
PATCHY LGT SNOW OBSERVED NEAR ANGLE INLET IN NRN MN WITH A FEW OTHER            
STATIONS INTO SW OT AND MB ALSO YIELDING FLURRIES. ALBEIT WEAK IT               
APPEARS THAT THE LATEST RUC H9-H8 2D FRONTOGENESIS IS DEPICTING THIS            
FLURRY ACTIVITY BEST. OUT AHEAD OF TROUGH MUCH OF FA UNDER SCT-BKN              
AC WHICH IS PARTIALLY BLOCKING MORNING SUNSHINE.                                
PASSAGE OF TROUGH THIS AFTN WL ALLOW AT LEAST BKN STRATUS TO FILTER             
IN ACROSS NRN TIER OF FA THIS AFTN PER RUC/ETA H925...WITH CLOUDS               
BECOMING MORE SCT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS                 
ALONG BOUNDARY. FAIRLY WARM START THIS MORNING AND ANY SUNSHINE THIS            
AFTN SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND THE 40F MARK...EVEN WARMER FARTHER            
SOUTH AWAY FM MORE BKN CLOUDS. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.            
BESIDES CLOUDS AND TEMPS CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF ANY FLURRIES ON              
THE KEWEENAW WITH WRLY FLW. 12Z INL RAOB DID SHOW DEEPER MOIST LAYER            
THAN EITHER THE ETA/RUC GAVE CREDIT FOR...EXTENDING TO NEAR H8. CWPL            
SOUNDING SHOWS ONLY NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR H85 WITH VRY DRY              
LAYER BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW...SUGGESTING THE INL DEEPER MOISTURE IS              
ISOLATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WL ROTATE OVR             
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND CLIP KEWEENAW THIS AFTN. TEMPS IN MIXED LAYER             
ONLY FALL TO -6C/-3C AT 875MB/925MB BY 21Z...YIELDING DLT T/S OF                
11C/8C BY LATE AFTN...OF WHICH THE 8C IS PROBABY A MORE FEASIBLE                
VALUE. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK FG MIGHT PROVIDE SOME FORCING DON/T THINK              
IT WL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ANY SIG PRECIP. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR             
WORKS INTO KEWEENAW EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BY THEN DRYING IS                  
OCCURRING INTO MIXED LAYER (RUC H9 RH FALLING BLO 50 PCT BY 00Z).               
ALL IN ALL THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES BUT NOTHING OF REAL                    
SIGNIFICANCE LOOKS LIKELY.                                                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
835 PM CST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES OUT              
WEST AND DECREASED WINDS.  CIRRUS COVERS MUCH OF THE STATE BUT                  
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE TEENS OVER THE WESTERN               
SNOW COVER.  THE LATEST RUC KEEPS WINDS LIGHTER THROUGH 12Z AND                 
DELAYS EJECTING HI PLAINS LOW.                                                  
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
 SCOTT                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
911 PM EST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW NOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SC COAST WILL HAVE A              
HUGE IMPACT ON WHETHER WE GET A FEW LOW TOPPED SUPER CELLS OR                   
NOT...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL RAIN OVERNIGHT.                  
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST WILL FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT. AFTER FALLING             
THIS EVENING...THEY WILL BRIEFLY RISE AS FLOW BECOMES SE...THEN FALL            
AGAIN TWRDS SUNRISE AS W/SW FLOW DEVELOPS WHEN SFC LOW TRACKS N OF              
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WELL INLAND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL                    
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THE LOW MOVES.                            
SFC BASED INSTAB WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST ATTM WHERE A WELL               
DEFINED COASTAL TROUGH WAS LOCATED. THE TROUGH EXTENDED S TO A                  
DEVELOPING LOW JUST SE OF CHS. INLAND 00Z RAOBS WERE DEVOID OF ANY              
CAPE AND EXHIBITED MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILES. IF AVN TRACK IS CORRECT            
SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER...THE ETA AND RUC40 MODELS            
MOVE THE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST AND WOULD PRESENT MORE OF A THREAT               
FOR OUR AREA. MSAS PRES FALLS CENTERS WERE NEAR RDU AND JUST                    
OFFSHORE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW WOULD TEND TO HUG THE NC COAST.                
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT AN ISOLD SPIN UP WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT                
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE IMMED COAST AFT 11 PM.                                   
CURRENT FCST HAS SITUATION WELL IN HAND AND PLAN ON NO UPDATE THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
MARINE: STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE S OF CAPE FEAR WAS NOTED AHEAD OF SFC            
LOW OFFSHORE OF SC. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE TWD MHX WATERS AS            
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES BETTERING CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IN MARINE               
ZONES AND ALG IMMEDIATE COAST. KMHX VAD SHOWING DECENT DIR AND WSPD             
SHEAR. CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL STICK WITH INCREASING WIND              
AND MENTION OF TSTMS.                                                           
.MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.                                           
ELARDO/COLBY                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1040 AM EST MON DEC 10 2001                                                     
...WILL TWEAK THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND            
ADJUST TEMPERATURES...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST WITH             
A COLD AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE EVIDENT DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE                
APPALACHIANS. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS INVADING                 
FROM THE SOUTH.                                                                 
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT             
ADVANCES TOWARDS KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR SKY               
COVER TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MIXING IN THE WEST ONLY TO 950 MB. ABOUT ONE            
TO TWO DEGREES IN THIS LEVEL WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MAX OUT                 
AROUND 40 IN THE WEST. WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING...DONT EXPECT THE              
EAST TO MIX SUBSTANTIALLY AT ALL (SUPPORTED BY CROSS SECTIONS). WITH            
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR DAMMING AND INVADING CLOUDS FEEL                
CONFIDENT TO SLASH TEMPERATURES TO THE 30S IN THE EAST.                         
WINDS WILL MIX TO SOUTHERLY IN THE WEST AND A VERY LIGHT SOUTHEAST              
WIND IN THE EAST.                                                               
WILL HAVE TO TAKE A HARD LOOK AT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS                  
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE SIGNATURES AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD MAY SUPPORT            
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.                                     
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/MARTIN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
130 PM CST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
SATELLITE SHOWING VORT CENTER PUNCHING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE EAST            
OF MEMPHIS AT EARLY AFTERNOON. KOHX DOPPLER CONTINUING TO SHOW SHOWERY          
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA WORKING NORTHEAST. GREENWOOD DOPPLER SHOWING             
BACKSIDE OF SHOWERY AREA JUST ABOUT TO SAVANNAH/PICKWICK DAM AREA AT            
1830Z. GOOD CLEARING BEHIND VORT CENTER ACROSS MISSISSIPPI.                     
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWING PRECIP STILL GOING ON OVER EASTERN AREAS OF            
MID STATE AND PLATEAU AROUND SUNDOWN BUT OUT OF MY CWA BY 03Z. WILL             
HAVE TO WATCH RADAR SCOPE AND TWEAK ZONES ACCORDINGLY FOR EARLY                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
ANOTHER RAIN CHANCE COMES OUR WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM                  
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.                                              
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
NASHVILLE  40 57 47 60 55  2015                                                 
CROSSVILLE 40 53 43 55 54  60-4                                                 
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
BOYD                                                                            
01                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD ANOTHER PAR             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
850 PM CST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
STRONG JET EMBEDDED IN A DEEP TROF OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE                
ACROSS MEXICO TONIGHT WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF PVA.  THE STRONGEST OR              
MOST ORGANIZED ENHANCEMENT ON THE WATER VAPOR APPEARS TO BE MOVING              
ONTO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...JUST SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.               
IT SEEMS THAT THIS ENHANCEMENT IS ASSOCIATED W/A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS             
IN THE SUB TROPICS THAT HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE DEEP TROF AND FAST            
FLOW...AND IS HEADING FOR DEEP S TX. EXPECT CONTINUED INCREASE UVV'S            
AND SATURATION FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COOL DOME..AND FROM             
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THRU TUES.  THIS LIFT COULD PRODUCE SOME                 
LIGHT RAIN TOWARD MORNING AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.                          
HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT W/LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE INFLOW.                                                                
IN ADDITION...FEEL THAT W/SUCH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY LOCATED             
ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST W/TEMP RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE              
COAST TO THE 70S OFFSHORE...COULD SEE A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOP                
TUES W/DEEP TROF AND APPROACHING APPARENT SHORTWAVE.  IF COASTAL LOW            
DEVELOPS....WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NE THRU TOMORROW.  IN                
FACT...THE RUC MODEL WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO PROG A WEAK COASTAL SFC              
LOW/TROF DEVELOPING SE OF BRO BY 12Z TUES.                                      
AS A RESULT...WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TONIGHT AND RAISE                
POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY ON TUES FOR CONSISTENCY.  WILL ALSO KEEP             
A E-NE WIND THRU TUES AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP.                   
MARINE...NO CHANGES MADE TO MARINE ZONES AS SEAS REMAIN LOW.                    
PUBLIC/AVIATION...GUERRERO  MESO/UPPER AIR...ABBOTT                             
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UDPATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
953 AM EST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
MAYBE...JUST MAYBE...THIS WL TURN OUT TO BE A SGFNT RA PRDCR FOR FA.            
THERE IS A WAY WHR WE DON'T GET WDSPRD 0.25" AND >. SYS FM LWR MS               
VLY LIFTING TO THE NE...UPR LVL PORTION PASSES ALG/JUST W OF                    
MTNS...PSBLY LEADING TO BETTER CHCS FOR SGFNT RA TWD MTNS                       
(UPSLPG)...WHL SCNDRY MSTR AREA CUD BE INVOF CST. FOR NOW...GOING               
FCST STANDS...WITH WDSPRD RA (PTNTLLY BEGINNING LT AFTN FAR WSW SXNS            
- WHICH FOLLOWS CURRENT SUGG FM 13Z RUC) TNGT INTO ERY TUE. CLDS                
ALREADY SPREADING QUIKLY INTO RGN...WL GO WITH MCLDY OVRALL. TEMP               
FCST TRICKY...BUT THINK CURRENT HI TEMPS WITHIN REACH.                          
FCSTID = 25                                                                     
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.                            
NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS NC/VA BRDR TO CURRITUCK BCH LGT.                        
VA...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS CHINCOTEAGUE TO NC/VA BRDR.                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
230 PM PST MON DEC 10 2001                                                      
CURRENT PLAN IS TO LOWER ALL HIGHLIGHTS AS NORTHERN EXTENSION OF                
TROUGH HAS BEEN SLOW TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW NO LONGER TO            
SET UP WITH LOW LEVEL HORIZONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS QUITE WEAK. BEST            
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE DIRECTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                  
CASCADES WITH TROUGH PASSING EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID DURING THE EARLY            
HALF OF TONIGHT. LATEST 18Z ETA AND RUC THIS WARRANTS CONTINUED                 
MENTION OF AREAS OF SNOW MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY ACROSS              
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.                                
NEXT SYSTEM IN THE SERIES STILL EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS OF SNOW BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE              
EASTERN BASIN AND LESSER CHANCE EASTWARD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS              
WILL OCCUR MAINLY FURTHER UP ALONG THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES. UPPER               
WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HEADS SOUTHWARD BRINGING                   
UNFAVORABLE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST                           
AREA...MINIMIZING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM LEFTOVER                  
EVENING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.                                           
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WEDNESDAY AS EAST PACIFIC RIDGE BEGINS TO                 
FLATTEN...WITH MINOR RIPPLE OVERHEAD. WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR                 
WEDNESDAY WHILE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME OR ASSESS THE                      
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF ANY...AT THIS TIME. SURFACE LOW IN GULF OF           
ALASKA BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE CASCADES EARLY THURSDAY. EXPECT               
STEADY PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RISING              
SNOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR THE VALLEYS BEFORE           
COLDER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN THE POST-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW. 850 MB                
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE 35-45 KNOT CATEGORY FOR BREEZY MENTION ON            
THURSDAY.  JR                                                                   
.EXTENDED...AS PER AVN AND MRF KEEP BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD                   
PRECIPITATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FRIDAY WHEN A SIGNIFICANT                  
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY FORECAST AREA IS ON THE              
NORTHEAST SIDE OF A DIRTY OFFSHORE RIDGE SO CONTINUE TO MENTION                 
PRECIPITATION BUT WITH ONLY CHANCE WORDING...AND EVEN THEN A STILL              
SMALLER CHANCE FOR THE BASIN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY MOST OF THE AREA IS             
ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DIRTY END OF A WESTERN US RIDGE WHICH              
PRETTY MUCH MERITS THE SAME FORECAST WORDING AS SATURDAY...THUS CLUMP           
SATURDAY SUNDAY AND MONDAYS FORECAST TOGETHER.                                  
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 023/030/020/031/029/035 730367                                              
COE 021/030/017/032/027/035 730367                                              
PUW 023/031/019/033/030/036 74-367                                              
LWS 029/035/025/036/033/041 442246                                              
CQV 021/032/017/032/028/036 620367                                              
SPT 019/031/017/031/028/033 720367                                              
WWP 020/028/017/029/027/032 731367                                              
EAT 027/034/025/035/032/037 240266                                              
MWH 026/035/023/035/033/038 240266                                              
.OTX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
245 AM MST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: INITIAL EJECTING WAVE FROM THE DESERT SW IS              
ACROSS NW CO ATTM AND MOVING NE INTO SERN WY THIS MORNING. SURFACE              
LOW PRESSURE HAS ALSO SHIFTED INTO SRN WY WITH A HEALTHLY SW FLOW               
PATTERN REMAININ OVER CWA. SAT PICS STILL HINTING AT A LITTLE FOG               
ACROSS WELD/MORGAN COUNTIES BUT FOR THE MOST PART THERE IS ENOUGH               
SFC DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WIDE ENOUGH T/TD SPREADS NOT TO BE TOO                  
WORRIED ABOUT FOG THIS MORNING. 88-D IS SHOWING SOME CONTINUED SCT              
SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE MTNS AND ROAD REPORTS/WEB CAMS SHOWING SN-                 
ATTM. X-SECTIONS IN THE MTNS SHOWING SOME LINGERING MSTR IN THE MTNS            
TDY BUT WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW AND NEGLIGIBLE FORCING BEHIND                    
WAVE...WE'LL LOWER POPS TO THE SCT CATEGORY TDY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF            
THIS WAVE...GOOD DOWNWARD FORCING TODAY AND NOT MUCH MSTR OVER ERN              
CO. 700MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL TDY DOWN TO AROUND -8C BY 00Z.                 
HOWEVER ...WITH THE EROSION OF THE INVERSION AT 700MB SHOULD BE ABLE            
TO OBTAIN HIGHS AROUND YESTERDAY'S READINGS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY                    
HIGHER.                                                                         
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MORE ENERGY EJECTS OUT             
OF THE BASE OF MEAN TROF ACROSS THE DESERT SW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE             
REDEVELOPS OVER SERN CO LATER TDY AND TNT AND MODELS GENERATE A BAND            
OF PRECIP ACROSS E CNTRL CO...AND NICKS ZNS 46..47..AND 49. NEW 06Z             
MESOETA HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS A BIT BUT WILL STILL INDICATE HIGHER             
POPS DOWN ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF CWA. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPSLOPE               
TNT SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE ONGOING ISOLD POPS OVER THE FRONT RANGE.              
ACROSS THE MTNS TNT...MSTR IS THERE...WEAK DYNAMICS...BUT 700MB FLOW            
IS QUITE WEAK ONLY 10KTS AND LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-7C/KM. CAN'T SEEM            
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES IN THE TNT PRD. ENTREKIN                            
LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  DESPITE THE FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ROCKIES            
THRU WED LUKS LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE                     
MTNS...ALTHO TONITE'S ETA RUN RAISES A BIT OF CONCERN FOR THE PLAINS            
AS ONE OF THE S/WVS MOVING THRU THE OVERALL TROF TRIES TO PRODUCE               
SOME SNOW FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  PLENTY OF ENERGY RIDING DOWN W               
COAST WITH A STRONG JET STREAM AND TNGTS ETA ANALYSIS SHOWS S/W OVER            
SRN CA BIT FARTHER W THAN 12H ETA FCST...AND THIS POSITION LUKS GUD             
VS WTR VPR LOOP AND AVN AND RUC ANALYSES.  ON THE OTHER HAND WAVE               
NOW ON BC COAST IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG IN TNGTS ETA BUT DIVES A BIT             
FURTHER W AND TAD FASTER...HOLDING TROF BACK A BIT VS 12Z ETA FOR WED           
THE AVN IS STRONGER WITH BOTH WAVES...ESPCLY THE ONE NOW ON THE BC              
COAST.  THE FARTHER W POSITION OF THE TWO WAVES STILL DIVING INTO               
THE COAST RESULTS IN THE ETA AND NGM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE               
AVN...BRINGING THE S/W FOR TUE NGT FARTHER N THAN IN THE PREVIOUS               
RUNS.  THIS PRODUCES A BAND OF SIG PCPN MAINLY ACRS SRN CO TO WRN KS            
BUT GETS CLOSE TO OUR SRN ZONES ON THE PLAINS.  THE ETA ACTUALLY                
SHOWS A BIT OF A CLOSED LOW AT 700 MB AS THIS SYSTEM COMES OUT TUE              
NGT SO WEAK BUT DEEPENING UPSLOPE PRODUCES SOME SNOW ALONG FRONT                
RANGE AND ESPCLY ZONE 41 AND EASTWARD THAT WUD CONT INTO WED. 06Z               
ETA RUN THEN BACKED OFF ON THIS 700 MB UPSLOPE.  CANADIAN REGIONAL              
MODEL SHOWS A SIMILAR BAND OF PCPN...THO THE WEAKER AVN KEEPS IT                
FARTHER E IN KS FOR THE MOST PART AND HAS NW FLOW AT 700 MB.  ATTM              
WE WILL HANDLE IT WITH SOME HIGHER POPS SRN PTN OF THE PLAINS UP TO             
50 PCT.  OTHRWS CRNT MTN ZONES LUK WITH A CONTINUATION OF SNOW SHWRS            
PROB REMAINING BELOW ADVY CRITERIA AS WINDS NOT THAT STRONG...THRU              
WED...THEN A BREAK UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOWS UP TWDS FRIDAY.                  
THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS MANY UNCERTAINTIES...THO               
GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS (EC, UK, CAN, MRF, NOGAPS)               
THAT A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER ROCKIES IN THE                
SAT/15 DEC TIMEFRAME.  VARIATIONS OF COURSE ON HOW DEEP THE TROF                
WILL BE AND COULD BLOW BY AS AN OPEN WAVE WITH VERY LITTLE SNOW ON              
THE PLAINS...MUCH LIKE THE CURRENT TROF.  THE SYSTEM IS JUST NOW                
EMERGING FROM A TROF OFF THE EAST COAST OF ASIA SO A LOT CAN HAPPEN             
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AMONG THE LATEST MODEL SIMULATIONS THE                 
ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST TROF WITH A SOMEWHAT N/S ORIENTED 500 MB LOW              
TRYING TO CLOSE OFF BY 12Z/SUN OVER NERN NM.  ON THE OTHER HAND                 
STRICTLY BUYING THE AVN/MRF WUD MEAN AN OPEN TROF MOVING ACRS CO ON             
SAT WITH GUD MTN SNOWS BGNG LATER FRI BUT NOTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE ON            
THE PLAINS.  THE UKMET IS A LITTLE DEEPER AND SLOWER...SMWHT LIKE               
THE CANADIAN.  THE LATEST NOGAPS IS ALSO DEEPER THAN ALL BUT THE EC             
MODEL.  GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOW IN              
THE CURRENT FCST FOR THIS WEEKEND...THO AT THIS POINT MODELS HAVE               
CERTAINLY SWERVED AWAY FROM THE STRONG CUTOFF SHOWN BY THE 10 DEC               
MRF RUN.    SZOKE                                                               
.DEN...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
405 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW SPLIT FLOW WITH NR ZONAL/            
PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH AFFECTING NRN CONUS/SRN CAN. SRN BRANCH MUCH             
MORE ACTIVE WITH DEEP TROF OVR THE SW AND ANOTHER SGNFT SHRTWV MOVG             
THRU THE SE AND CRASHING INTO PERSISTENT MEAN UPR RDG OVR THE SE.               
STRG NLY H3 WNDS ON BACK SIDE OF WRN TROF. VERY DRY AIR OVR SRN CAN             
AND CONUS EVEN DOWN TO GLF COAST AND SE CONUS WITH PW GENERALLY AOB             
0.25 INCH. VIGOROUS SHRTWV OVR SE CO LIFTING NE OUT OF WRN                      
TROF...BUT DRYNESS OF AIR LIMITING CLD COVER TO MAINLY JUST SOME HI             
CLDS THAT HAVE MOVD AS FAR NE AS MN. SFC 1022MB HI PRES OVR SRN                 
ONTARIO BRINGING A RATHER TRANQUIL NGT TO CWA IN WAKE OF COLD FNT               
NOW MOVG SE INTO NRN LWR MI. RATHER DRY AIR UNDER HI PRES PER LOCAL             
00Z RAOBS AND SFC DWPTS AS LO AS 7 AT YQT. BUT SOME PTCHY SC                    
EVIDENT...MAINLY OVR THE NW AND THE S UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN ARND H9            
AS DEPICTED ON 00Z GRB SDNG. SFC DWPTS IN THE 25 TO 30 RANGE JUST S             
OF CWA.                                                                         
00Z MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCRSGLY AMPLIFIED UPR              
PATTERN OVR THE CONUS DVLPG BY MID WEEK AS WRN TROF DEEPENS/ERN RDG             
BLDS IN RESPONSE TO HIER MOMENTUM DROPPING SWD INTO WRN TROF. MAIN              
FCST CONCERNS INTO TNGT ARE CLD/TEMP TRENDS...AND THEN PCPN CHCS                
BEGINNING LATE TNGT INTO THU AS SHRTWVS LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF WORK            
NE AND GRDLY ADVCT HIER MSTR BACK NWD.                                          
FOR TDAY INTO TNGT...UPR HGTS BLD OVR THE GRT LKS AS SFC HI SHIFTS              
TO THE E AND CO SHRTWV LIFTING NE GRDLY LWRS PRES ACRS THE NRN                  
PLAINS...WITH 1009MB SFC LO REACHING NR INL BY 12Z WED. ALTHOUGH                
BOTH ETA AND AVN GET TO THIS SAME SOLN...PREFER MORE CONSISTENT AVN             
HANDLING OF PRES FIELD AS STEADY...SLOWER FALL IN PRES MORE                     
CONSISTENT WITH XPCTD SHEARING OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM MEAN TROF                
POSITION. SSELY FLOW OVR CWA GRDLY INCRSES AS PRES GRADIENT SHARPENS            
BTWN DEPARTING HI AND FALLING PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS. DESPITE                  
INCRSG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND APRNT WARM FROPA TDAY...AIRMASS INITIALLY            
SO DRY THERE WL BE NO SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN UNDER JUST SOME HI CLD.               
FCST QUESTION FOR TDAY IS WHETHER THERE WL BE ANY SC AHD OF WARM                
FROPA. BOTH AVN AND ETA SHOW HIER SFC DWPTS POOLING ALG DSPTG COLD              
FNT DROPPING S OF CWA...PRESENCE OF SC CIG ACRS SRN TIER AND SE OF              
CWA AT 06Z MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THIS PROCESS...AND RETURNING TO                 
MAINLY THE ECNTRL ZNS TDAY BEFORE WARM FNT SHIFTS TO THE N TOWARD               
EVNG. FCST H100-85 THKNS AND UPSTREAM OBS WELL INTO THE 40S OVR WI              
YDAY SUG MAX TEMPS TOWARD HIER MAV GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE               
PLACES THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE OVR THE W.                                    
MODELS SHOW INCRSG H4-2 DVGC/H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC OVR THE WRN HALF OF             
CWA OVRNGT AS RRQ OF STRENGTHENING WAD H3 JET IN ONTARIO GETS                   
POSITIONED OVR NW GRT LKS. AVN/NGM GENERATE PCPN AS FAR E AS NW WI              
BY 12Z WED...BUT ETA ACTUALLY SHOWS LGT QPF OVR WRN ZNS LATE TNGT.              
CONSIDERING SOURCE AIRMASS IS SO DRY...WITH H85 DWPT DEPS/SFC DWPT              
AT 20 TO 30C/20 TO 25F RESPECTIVELY...AND FVRD AVN LWRS PRES SLOWER             
OVR NRN PLAINS (WITH WEAKER SLY FLOW/MSTR ADVCTN)...WL MAINTAIN DRY             
FCST AND JUST MENTION INCRSG CLDS OVR W TO PCLDY OVR THE E. AVN                 
INDICATES SHARP PRES GRADIENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT SFC S WND ALL NGT IN             
WARM SECTOR. ASSOCIATED MECHANICAL MIXING AND AT LEAST PCLDY SKIES              
WL RESULT IN MINIMAL DIURNAL COOLING...MOS FCST MINS RSNBL.                     
ON WED...AVN INDICATES SFC LO WL MOVE INTO CNTRL ONTARIO...WITH SWLY            
FLOW CONTG OVR CWA AHD OF APRCHG ATTENDANT COLD FNT...WHICH APPEARS             
TO REACH IWD TOWARD 00Z THU. H4-2 DVGC AND H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC IN RRQ            
OF UPR JET PULL NE WITH UPR JET DURG THE MRNG...LEAVING THE CWA IN              
INCRSGLY MOIST SW FLOW BUT WITH NO DYNAMICS AND WEAK ISENTROPIC                 
LIFT. WL COLOR THE DAY MOCLDY...AND CONT WITH CHCY POPS DVLPG W TO E            
ALL ZNS AS AVN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF ENTIRE FA. HAVE OPTED TO GO               
WITH JUST RA XCPT OVR FAR W AFTR MILD OVRNGT AND PER AVN FCST                   
H100-H85 THKNS/SFC DWPT AOA 1305M/32F AND FWC/MAV FCST PCPN TYPE.               
MOS FCST MAX RSNBL AND WELL ABV NORMAL.                                         
MODEL SOLNS BEGIN TO DIVERGE EVEN MORE SO ON WED NGT. AVN HAS                   
REMAINED CONSISTENT SHOWING A STRGR SRN BRANCH SHRTWV LIFTING NE AND            
CAUSING A DEEPER SFC LO TO DVLP ON BAROCLINIC ZN SW OF CWA WED NGT              
AND THEN TAKING DEEPER LO NE TOWARD ERN ZNS WITH WDSPRD PCPN OVR ALL            
BUT THE FAR W. ETA AND NGM HAVE TRENDED TOWARD EARLIER CANADIAN SOLN            
OF A BIT STRGR NRN SHRTWV/DRY PUSH BEHIND INITIAL LO PRES...THAT                
FORCES BAROCLINIC ZN AND A WEAKER/MORE SHRD SFC LO FARTHER E SO THAT            
CWA WOULD MISS MOST PCPN. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED A DEEP 995 MB LO MOVG                
ACRS CNTRL ZNS THU MRNG. 00Z UKMET VERY MUCH SUPPORTS AVN SOLN.                 
SINCE MODELS SHOW MAJORITY OF WRN TROF LIFTING NE...FEEL THE IDEA OF            
A STRGR SRN SYS IS THE BEST SOLN. ALSO GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF ERN                 
RDG...FEEL THE FARTHER W IDEA IS THE WAY TO GO. SINCE AVN IS                    
CONSISTENT WITH THIS HYPOTHESIS...MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH RESPECT TO            
VARIOUS SOLNS...AND MOST CONSISTENT WITH GOING PACKAGE...WL STICK               
WITH ITS FCST ATTM. AVN SHOWS INCRSG H4-2 DVGC/H7-3 QVECTOR CNVGC IN            
LEFT EXIT OF LIFTING H3 JET MAX OVRSPRDG CWA WED NGT WITH CCB                   
STRUCTURE ON CYC SIDE OF H5 VORT MAX TRACK DVLPG THU MRNG AS UPR                
DYNAMICS BEGIN TO PULL NE. STRG DYNAMICS AND FCST H85-7 FRONTOGEN IN            
DEFORMATION ZN TO THE W OF SFC LO TRACK SUGS ANY MIXED PCPN WL CHG              
TO ALL SN ACRS THE W AND CNTRL ZNS (W OF H85 LO TRACK) WITH A MIX OF            
SN/RA OVR THE E. AS SFC LO LIFTS INTO ONTARIO THU AFTN...AVN SUGS               
STRG NW WNDS WL DVLP ACRS CWA WITH LES DVLPG IN CYC FLOW BEHIND SYS             
(H85 TEMPS FALL NR -15C)...ESPECIALLY OVR WRN ZNS FVRD FOR NWLY                 
FLOW. NECESSARY CHGS TO GOING PACKAGE INCLUDE BUMPING UP POPS ON WED            
NGT AND TRENDING TOWARD MORE RA ESPECIALLY WED NGT/EARLY THU OVR THE            
E. BUT WL NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP IN DETAILS ATTM GIVEN THE GREAT                
UNCERTAINTY AND MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS.                                     
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
306 AM CDT TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
...FORECAST CHALLENGES ABOUND WITH WIND TDA AND PCPN IN 3RD PERIOD...           
00Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAINT BROAD TROUGH              
OVER WESTERN UTAH WITH A SERIES OF SEVERAL UPSTREAM WAVES IN THE                
FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW. NLY JET OF 90KTS CONTS TO DRIVE ENERGY                
INTO TROUGH...PROHIBITING ANY EASTWARD PROPAGATION. CLOSER TO THE               
SURFACE...VORT CENTER STRETCHING NE OUT OF COLORADO FOLLOWED BY                 
SURFACE LOW OVER SE WYOMING WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AS OBSERVED             
BY 35KT/500METER ON 07Z NLG PROFILER.                                           
IN NEAR TERM...WIND SPEEDS CAPTURE ATTN BUT AFTER MULLING OVER RUC40            
GUST SPEED LOOKS LIKE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL UNDER              
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30KT OVER SE CWA. MESOETA             
IN AGREEMENT WITH STIFF H85 AT 50KT DROPPING OFF AFTER 18Z IN THE               
PRESENCE OF MODERATE CLOUD COVER.                                               
THE CLINCHER TO THE FCST IN THIS PATTERN IS THE IMPACT THE                      
SHORTWAVES OFF COAST WILL HAVE WITH THIS AND SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS AS              
THEY WILL BE INCLINED TO LAG WESTWARD INTO THE STAGNANT BROAD                   
WESTERN TROUGH...THUS PREVENTING THE INFILTRATION OF THE H5 -30C AIR            
SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE -28C AIR OVER NRN ARIZONA            
THAT HAS ESTABLISHED THE LOW AS COLD CORE. ETA HAS BEEN CATCHING                
ONTO THESE EFFECTS BEST AND WILL GENERALLY STICK TO SOLN FOR TIMING             
AND PLACEMENT OF PCPN ON WED.                                                   
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF SW DURING NEXT 24 HRS. HUGE               
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z RUNS LIE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF            
FIELD AND CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BASED UPON RECENT                    
PERFORMANCE OR LACK THEREOF. H7 LOW TRACKING NE FROM DDC INTO GID KS            
ZONES FROM 06Z WED TO 06Z THURS WOULD PLACE FAIR SHOT IN WRAPPED                
PORTION OF SYSTEM AS SFC CENTROID MAKES BEELINE FOR LAKES                       
THEREAFTER. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ON 295K SFC SHOWS BEST LIFT ALONG SW            
TO NE ORIENTED AXIS THRU HSI WITH MIX RATIOS ON ORDER OF 3-4 G/KG.              
AVN AND ETA PROG SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES THRU LAYER              
WITH ONLY FLY A VERY SHALLOW WM LAYER OVR KS ZONES FROM 12-18Z.                 
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FOR SN.            
NEXT CHALLENGE AWAITS FOR SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD DURING WEEKEND            
TIME FRAME.  MODELS HAVE WAFFLED BETWEEN SAT-MON ON THIS WAVE...BUT             
NOW THAT WERE STARTING TO SEE PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE BIAS WILL                  
STRETCH ACROSS SUN-MON PERIODS FOR LACK OF CONTINUITY.                          
COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT WFOS VIA CONF CALL.                                  
SPS WILL BE ISSUED WITH ZONE PACKAGE FOR WINTER WX POTENTIAL.                   
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
33                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
127 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
DISC...                                                                         
.BOTTOM LINE...ANOTHER MILD WEEK.                                               
.PROBLEM OF THE DAY...HOW LONG DO CLDS LINGER TDA AND ASSOCD MAXT?              
.SYNOPSIS...BIFURCATED ULVL CRCLN WRN NOAM CREATED BY DP TROAL OVR              
US ROCKIES.  BROAD ULVL RDG CNTRL/ERN US.  MINOR/WKNG SHORT WV MOVG             
EWD THRU MID ATLC RGN TMRNG.  RUC SHOWS H2/H3 WMAX MOVG ACRS SNE W              
SOME QP MOVG NWD THRU MID ATLC RGN IN RR ENTRANCE AREA OF WMAX.  AT             
SFC SPRAWLING HIPRES OFF NEW ENG CST MOVG FURTHER SEAWARD WHILE                 
INVERTED TROF DVLPS ALG MID ALTC CST TMRNG...AND TRAILING SRN EDGE              
OF CDFNT MOVS SWD TO ST LAW VLY.  WHOLE SYNOPTIC COMPLEX IS                     
PROGRESSIVE...SO BY TEVE...SFC HIPRES RDG FCST TO SHFT INTO NY FM               
THE WEST AS CDFNT HANGS UP ACRS NRN NY/NEW ENG.  MEANWHILE ULVL RDG             
BLDS STGLY OVR ERN NOAM.  BLDG ULVL RDG ENHANCES SFC HIPRES CNTRD NR            
MOUTH OF ST LAW ERY WED AND COLD AIR DAMMING RDG IS FCST NEW ENG TO             
PIEDMONT AREA.  SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC UPLIFT/INCRG RH SETTING UP OVR             
CWA WED...AS CREST OF ULVL RDG SHFTS OFF ATLC CST.                              
.MDLS...AVN/ETA/META/RAFS/2 CNDN MDLS/MM5 SUNYSB EXAMINED FOR THE               
FCST.  ALL MDLS BRUSH SRN FRINGE OF CWA W QP BFR 12Z...BUT ARE DRY              
TIL WED AFTN WHEN GEM RGNL/ETA/AVN/META GENERATE SPOTTY LGT QP S/E              
CWA.  OTHER THAN AVN/CNDN MDLS MOVG SFC INVERTED TROF EWD MORE                  
QUICKLY THAN OTHER MDLS...NOTICED NO SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN MDL                   
FCSTS.  NCEP FAVORS AVN.  ALL MDLS ARE INCRG LLVL MSTR FM E/S CRCLN             
INTO NY/NEW ENG WED...BUT ULVL RMNS FAIRLY DRY.                                 
.SHORT TERM...SC CLDS XTSV IN SRN HLF OF CWA ATTM.  MDL FCST SNDGS              
INDC DRYING ALL LVLS TDA...SO XPC SOME SS THRUT BY TAFTN.  FWC/MAV              
MAXT CLOSE...SUNYSB SNDGS WHICH ARE USUALLY QUITE RELIABLE FOR MAXT             
WAY TOO COLD...SEEM TO BE HAVING TRBL W SNOW COVER.  GEM BNDRY                  
LYR...IN 30S N/W OF CAP DIST AT 18Z SUGGESTG MAXT WL BE LWR THAN                
MOS.  PREV ZN FCST AGREES W CURRENT MOS AND SINCE CSDRBL SS SEEMS               
LKLY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...WL STICK W IT.  SFC WND L/V TDA.           
.LONG TERM...MNLY SKC XPC TNGT AS HIPRES RDG TAKES HOLD.  MIN/T MNLY            
20S.  E WND XPC TO PICK UP IN MHVLY AND XPC LTL HIR MIN/T THAN OTHER            
LOCS.  L/V WND MOST ZNS TNGT.                                                   
FOR TUE XPC LLVL CLDNS TO INCR.  PREV ZNS HAS INDC THIS WELL AND WL             
ADHERE TO THE FCST.  FWC POP 24 PCT AT KPOU FOR WED.  SOME MDLS INDC            
SOME LGT PCPN.  MAY INTRODUCE CHC DRZL SE.  DON/T XPC MUCH                      
DIFFERENCE IN MAXT FM TDA XPC MAXT/S.  EVEN THO THKNS IS HIR...CLDS             
WL PRECLUDE FULL POTENTIAL OF HEATING FM BEING REALIZED.                        
.XTND FCST...ULVL TROF SHFTG EWD AND WL BE TIED TO LOPRES MOVG THRU             
ERN CANADA/CDFNT MOVG TO OH VLY BY LT THU AND OFF ATLC CST BY LT                
FRI.  HIPRES BLDS IN/OVR NERN US FOR THE WKEND.  MOISTURE/QP FM SYS             
TO WEST BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON ERN NY/WRN NEW ENG WED NGT.  PREV               
ZNS HAD LKLY POPS.  CURRENT MOS MNLY CHC.  WL STICK W LKLY BASED ON             
QPF FM CNDN GLOBAL/AVN.  ETA/META HAVE A MNLY DRY SOLTN.  HWR...                
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OF MOIST LLVL WUD SEEM TO ENSURE AT LEAST SOME LGT            
QP.  MORE QP THU AS LOPRES MOVS TO VCNTY ERN GRTLKS AND CDFNT TO WRN            
NY LT.  A WV ON THE FNT THREATEN QP FOR FRI TOO.  PREV ZN FCST LOOKS            
OKAY INTO XTND PD AND WL MAKE NO CHGS.                                          
.ALY... NONE.                                                                   
KHH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
218 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
SFC LOW LOCATED E OF MYR AS 05Z AND CONTINUING TO TRACK NNE. BULK OF            
THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING N AND E OF THE LOW. ETA/AVN AND RUC-40              
SHOWING BEST UVV AND H9-H8 MOISTURE FLUX BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z BEFORE             
DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING. WILL BASE POPS ON RADAR...BUT CURRENT              
INCLINATION IS TO CARRY HI CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS ALONG THE CST AND             
TAPER TO A CHC WELL INLAND WITH WORDING MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS.           
EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY WITH POSSIBLY A           
FEW PEAKS OF SUN DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS TRICKY FOR TODAY'S AFTERNOON       
HIGHS BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. MAV/FWC CLUSTERED        
AROUND LOWER FIGURES WITH THE LOCAL ETA NUMBERS BEING A BIT WARMER. WILL        
USE A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE THREE...WHICH SHOULD HIGHS INTO THE LOWER          
60S MOST AREAS. CLOUD COVER ALSO TOUGH TO FIGURE TONIGHT AS WE ARE BETWEEN      
SYSTEMS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG AND          
STRATUS. MINS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 50. FOR WEDS...MOISTURE A            
BIT MORE SHALLOW...BUT WITH NE FLOW WILL OPT FOR PTCLOUDY WITH MAXES            
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. IN THE LONGER TERM...STRONG COLDFRONT               
POISED TO PUSH THRU THURSDAY AS AVN SHOWING LARGE SWATH OF DEEP                 
OMEGA.                                                                          
MARINE...AT 07Z A SFC LOW WAS S OF CAPE FEAR OVER OCEAN WATERS. IT              
APPEARS THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE OVER WATER BUT POTENTIALLY            
CLIPPING LOOKOUT AND HATTERAS. THIS WILL SHIFT BLUSTERY SE WIND TO A            
N-NW COMPONENT THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. SEAS ALREADY                  
RUNNING 5 TO 6 FEET AND WILL KEEP SCA FLAGS POSTED FOR THE COASTAL              
WATERS. WILL ALLOW FLAGS TO DROP FOR THE SOUNDS SINCE MARGINAL WINDS            
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. INITIALIZATION OF WIND A LITTLE TRICKY BUT WILL            
COUNT ON A SFC LOW TRACK SKIRTING OUR COAST AND THEN MOVING OUT.                
.MHX...SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.                                              
PUBLIC/FIRE...COLLINS                                                           
MARINE/AVIATION...COLBY                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
325 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
NUMEROUS LITTLE PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. STRONG              
LOW LIFTING OUT NOT INITIALIZED WELL IN THE MODLES...WITH ALL OF                
THEM UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE            
DOING OK AND WILL USE THIS IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. WARM FRONT LIFTING            
NORTH THROUGH ERN SD...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING IN ERN NEB AND SERN SD.              
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIFTING NORTH WITH WARM FRONT. AFTER WARM               
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH ERN CWA BY 18Z...WILL THERE BE SOME BREAKS            
IN THE CLOUD COVER OR NOT. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND                      
CONFIRMING WITH MODELS...STRONG JET CORE SHOULD PASS OVER ERN CWA               
DURING DAY TODAY. WITH 7H AND 8H REMAINING DRY FOR BETTER PART OF               
DAY ACROSS ERN CWA...BELIEVE THAT A FEW BREAKS WILL DEVELOP FROM                
KABR AND EAST...THOUGH PROBABLY WON'T GO MOSUNNY WITH HIGH CLOUDS               
STREAMING IN. ALSO...WITH SUCH STRONG WAA TAKING PLACE TODAY...TEMPS            
COULD BE TRICKY. WITH TEMPS ALREADY RISING ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR...AM             
TEMPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE.                        
HOWEVER...WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS...WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND LET               
DAY SHIFT RATCHET UP TEMPS IF THEY NEED TO. ANOTHER CONCERN IS WHEN             
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WRN CWA TODAY. AS SFC LOW LIFTS NORTH              
AND GETS STRETCHED...COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH MO RIVER                    
COUNTIES AROUND 18Z...TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST...THEN NORTHWEST.               
WITH LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN THE WEST...DON'T FORSEE MUCH MORE WARMING            
DURING MORNING...SO WILL GO STEADY TEMPS THERE. WITH MAIN DYNAMICS              
OF SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE WRN CWA...WILL INCLUDE SOME 20 POPS FOR            
LIGHT SNOW...BUT REMOVE FOR THE ERN CWA. JUST DON'T SEE ENOUGH                  
MOISTURE TO WRING OUT. DID NOTICE THAT ON THE 290K SFC...2 G/KG SPEC            
HUMIDITES DO MOVE INTO THE I-29 CORRIDOR AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND                
INTO THE EVENING...BUT THAT IS AFTER BEST LIFT HAS PASSED. BELIEVE              
THAT IT MAY BE MORE WRAPAROUND MOIST FOLLOWING COLD FRONT. FOR                  
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER DAY IN STORE WITH CAA AND CLOUDS. FOR                   
THURSDAY...NEXT 5H WAVE DROPS INTO CWA. LOOKING AT SPEC HUMIDITY                
PLOTS...NOT MOISTURE WITH THIS ONE AS WELL...ALTHO HUMIDITY IMAGES              
ARE QUITE SATURATED...BUT THAT IS PROBABLY MORE INDICATIVE OF TEMPS             
THAN ACTUALL MOISTURE CONTENT. DIDN'T FIDDLE MUCH WITH EXTENDED                 
FORECAST.                                                                       
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO, TX                                           
320 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
CURRENT FORECAST DIFFICULTIES INCLUDE THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF                  
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE              
ANALYSIS SHOWED A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL                     
MOISTURE AROUND MIDLAND AND ABILENE. THIS MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING            
NORTH TODAY. THE LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHERLY REACHING THE              
BREEZY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO                    
ARIZONA WITH A VORT MAX PUSHING INTO EASTCENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY LATE             
AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE             
APPROACHES THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TIMING WILL              
DEPEND ON HOW FAST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON. THE               
ETA/AVN SOLUTION BREAKS PRECIPITATION OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON                     
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUC APPEARS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER. WILL               
PROBABLY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT               
WILL WAIT TO CHECK OUT THE NEWEST RUC AT 09Z. THE NEW MESOETA IS                
SLOWER AND LESS AGGRESSIVE AND THIS MODEL SEEMS BEST. HOWEVER...                
AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH             
THE BEST CHANCE IN THE EAST TONIGHT. IF WE HAVE ANY PRECIPITATION AT            
ALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR AFTER               
MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT             
WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TO             
FOLLOW. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT THE               
SAME AS WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT LINGERS AT ALL ON                     
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED BY THE MAV SO WILL LOWER                      
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THURSDAY.                                                
FOR THE LATER PERIODS...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND             
THE EXITING TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE MRF AND ECMWF.                
HOWEVER...THE MRF AGAIN LOOKS TO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT            
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH SHOULD COME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT             
WITH A MUCH COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHOULD HAVE CANADIAN AIR           
WITH IT. WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT ON SUNDAY. AFTER TROUGH             
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...A LEE TROUGH AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY                 
RETURN TO THE AREA.                                                             
PRELIM CCF...                                                                   
AMA 58/30 44/22 46 -12                                                          
DHT 53/25 41/19 42 -12                                                          
.AMA...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
CB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE CLOUDS/TEMPS.                             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SW FLOW TOWARD THE WRN GRT                
LAKES AHEAD OF TROF OVER THE ROCKIES. A SHRTWV OVER THE CNTRL                   
DAKOTAS WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT APPROACHED FLAT H5              
RDG AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD NRN WI. AT THE                      
SFC...DEPARTING RDG EXTENDED FROM ERN ONTARIO TO OHIO AND THE ERN               
LAKES WHILE A TROF WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 280K                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT INTO SE MN AND SW WI SUPPORTED            
A PATCH OF SC OVER CNTRL AND WRN UPR MI...PER VIS LOOP. 12Z KGR AND             
FCST SNDGS INDICATED A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LYR BLO STRONG 900              
MB INVERSION. 12Z RUC/ETA AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CLD LYR WILL             
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT AND LIFT TO THE NORTH. SOME HI CLD OVER NE MN              
AND NW WI MAY ALSO GRAZE WRN UPR MI. SO...WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST                
WORDING OF PTSUNNY CNTRL AND WEST BUT MENTION MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE             
ERN CWA. WITH TEMPS ALREADY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S F AND                    
INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY 19Z...CURRENT FCST MAX IN THE 40-45             
RANGE LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1039 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                     
THE 15Z SURFACE PLOT SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN                
LAKE HURON TO KMKG. TRENDS IN THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RUC               
CONTINUE TO WASH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE HURON SLIDES EAST INTO                 
QUEBEC. SCATTERED STRATO CU CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON THE 11-3.9U AND                 
CURRENT VIS IMAGE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. INCREASING                  
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CONTINUE TO              
BRING SOME OF THESE CLOUDS INTO HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES EARLY                
(BEFORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER). QUITE A               
BIT OF CIRRUS NOTED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST OK. SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC/MESO ETA             
SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL PUSH JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS I             
WILL CONTINUE THE SUNNY FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA (OUTSIDE OF THE                 
THUMB). CURRENT FCST MAX HIGHS LOOK IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND            
TRENDS. THUS ONLY CHANGES TO ZONES WILL BE TO DROP MORNING WORDING.             
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1025 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2001                                                     
...QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING...                                    
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER.            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO SOUTHERN PA LAST NIGHT                 
LOCATED OFF VIRGINIA COAST. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED WELL OFF TO             
OUR NORTH AND WEST.                                                             
WEAKENING VORT SPINNING IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA STILL SUPPLYING A FEW               
CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST PA. AS THIS VORT TRAVERSES EASTWARD TODAY AND             
WEAKENS FURTHER...AREA OF CLOUDINESS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD ONCE                 
AGAIN.                                                                          
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE OLE FORECAST AREA               
TODAY. RUC CROSS SECTIONS SHOW MIXING GENERALLY REACHING TO ABOUT               
900 MB. MIXING THE 5 C AIR DOWN TRANSLATES TO MAX TEMPS OF 50-53 FOR            
THE AVERAGE ELEVATION. LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZES MAY TRANSLATE DOWN TO            
THE SURFACE EXCEPT CLOSER TO THE LOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER             
NORTH WINDS.                                                                    
WORK ZONES OUT IN A BIT...REAL ZONES ON THE STREETS SHORTLY                     
THEREAFTER!                                                                     
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
ROGOWSKI/MARTIN                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
630 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
FORECAST AREA IS ENTRENCHED IN A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE THIS                    
MORNING. PATCHY FOG SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS                  
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...AND MAY PERSIST UNTIL THE MIDDLE PART OF              
THE DAY ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT. WILL REMOVE DRIZZLE                
FROM NC FOOTHILLS/NW PIEDMONT SINCE THE SUPPORT FOR IT HAS MOVED                
EASTWARD.                                                                       
HAVE DECIDED TO TWEAK THE ZONES THIS MORNING BASED ON A HOLE THAT               
HAS OPENED IN THE LOW OVERCAST...APPARENTLY DUE TO SOME WEAK                    
DOWNSLOPE OFF THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT OWING TO LIGHT NW FLOW AT 850              
MB SEEN IN THE LATEST RUC. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE TRANSIENT THIS                
MORNING AND THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY FILL IN AS THE COLD DOME               
DRAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THINK IT A GOOD IDEA TO OPEN UP A BIT OF A               
RANGE ACROSS THE UPSTATE ZONES AND TO BUMP THE ABBEVILLE/GREENWOOD              
AREA TO MID 50S.                                                                
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN TO UNWEDGE. THE PREVAILING                    
THINKING STILL IS THAT TODAY HOLDS LITTLE CHANCE OF COMPLETELY                  
SCOURING OUT THE COLD AIR DOME...EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD DRAIN A BIT              
EARLY IN THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA                  
REINFORCES THE NE FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD NOT REBOUND              
MUCH TODAY UNDER EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT.              
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH IS             
BELOW GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE DAMMING REGION E OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH             
THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES OUTLINED ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE             
WARMEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD            
SEE A BIT OF SUN BY THE END OF THE DAY. FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDS                    
CONTINUE AND FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS                    
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
WEDNESDAY IS THE TRICKY DAY AS THE MODELS TRY TO DESTROY THE WEDGE.             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL WHICH SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF            
CLOUDS IN THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND ISENTROPIC LIFT                
MOVE BACK IN BY THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO             
VEER AROUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER             
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. I REMAIN HIGHLY SKEPTICAL THAT THE WEDGE                
WILL BREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD                
SCOURING. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE                
REGION...BUT WILL SPLIT OFF SOUTHEASTERN EDGE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR              
THE EDGE OF THE COOL POOL ERODING NORTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE DAY.             
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE AVN AND CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH                   
DELAYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT              
AND THURSDAY...AND PUSHING THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT BACK INTO THURSDAY             
NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE SOME CHANGES TO THE EARLY PART OF THE                    
EXTENDED...MAINLY THE ADDITION OF PRECIP TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE              
FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP FIVE TO              
TEN DEGREES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS...AND ADJUSTED UPWARD A CATEGORY            
ON THE HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE             
FOR THE LATE PART OF THE EXTENDED.                                              
FCSTID = 10                                                                     
GSP   52  41  55  49 /  10  10  10  40                                          
AND   53  41  56  49 /  10  10  10  40                                          
CLT   51  41  54  49 /  10  10  10  30                                          
HKY   49  38  50  47 /  10  10  10  40                                          
AVL   53  38  55  47 /  10  10  20  40                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1000 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                     
PACIFIC MOISTURE IN SW MEXICO CONTINUES TO SURGE NE INTO SOUTH TEXAS            
THIS MORNING.  RR QUAD OF UPPER JET IS CURRENTLY OVER FA THIS                   
MORNING. THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISENT LIFT OVER THE                         
REGION...WHICH THE ETA AND RUC40 PROGS TO CONT THROUGH THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD REMAINED FOCUSED IN NE            
ZONES IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE                 
COAST.  WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                  
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
AP...72 SYN                                                                     
MB...80 MESO                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA                                             
830 AM PST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN                    
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH            
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AND A RATHER VIGOROUS                 
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY AND              
FRIDAY.                                                                         
.DISCUSSION...WK SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THRU WRN WA TDY...PROBABLY A WK             
CIRCULATION CENTER ALG THE COAST...THEN SE INTO ORE. SO SHOWING LGT             
SE WINDS BACKING TO NE. CURRENT RUC AND NEW ETA MATCH WELL PUTTING A            
WK SFC LOW AROUND KAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS NOW ARE A FEW                 
DEGREES WARMER THAN I HAD THOUGHT YDY...SO WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO            
THE HIGHS AND MAY DROP THE LCL WET SNOW MOST ZONES UNLESS SOMETHING             
STARTS SHOWING UP IN THE OBS. STILL PRETTY COOL...SEEMS LIKE H850 HAS           
BEEN STUCK ON -4C OVR THE CASCDS RECENTLY...HOWEVER THE FNTL SYS WED            
EVENING TAKES THE 0C ISOTHERM WELL N THRU THE CASCDS W/ +3C FOR THE             
OLYMPICS. A RISING SNOW LEVEL THRU WED NITE...THEN BACK DOWN A NOTCH            
BEFORE RISING AGAIN LATE THU W/ THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM. A FEW            
ADJUSTMENTS THERE AS WELL...BUT MAIN THEME IS RATHER WET...SO MANY              
WAYS TO SAY RAINY, HEH.                                                         
06Z AVN SHOWED 999MB SFC LOW NR VICTORIA 12Z THU...WHILE THE NEW ETA            
TRACKS THE LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST N VRISL ABOUT SIX HOURS                     
EARLIER...WED EVENING. MERELY BREEZY WED NITE AND THU LOOKS LIKE A              
GOOD FCST FOR NOW. McFarland                                                    
UIL  757  SEA  757  OLM  757                                                    
.SEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT.                  
.KATX...VCP21/CSR21...OPERATIONAL.                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
315 PM MST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A COLD LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS            
...BREEZINESS AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA               
THIS EVENING. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AT AND ABOVE 4000              
FEET. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...AND              
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL               
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA                     
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COLDER                
NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR LOW                  
TEMPERATURES LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL            
BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND             
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY                 
ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RUC PEGS LOWEST 500 MB HEIGHT AT 5430 M JUST EAST OF YUMA...AND WITH            
115 KT 300 MB JET STILL ON ITS BACKSIDE...EXPECT LOW TO MOVE TOWARD             
THE ESE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP ENDING UPSTREAM AND NEAR             
LOW...WITH MOST ACTION OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ PTN OF CWA               
ATTM. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST            
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS EVENING...BUT KEPT RATHER HIGH POPS IN             
FOR EXPECTED EARLY EVENING ACTION OVER PHX AND CENTRAL DESERT...AND             
WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POP OVER NE MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA                    
COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHERE HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT                
UNTIL 7 PM.                                                                     
AS STATED THIS MORNING...CWA OBVIOUSLY IN GRIP OF ANOMALOUSLY COOL              
AIRMASS. 3 PM TEMP AT PHX WAS ONLY 46 DEGREES...AND THIS TEMP IS                
REPRESENTATIVE OF S-CNTRL AZ DESERT TEMPS. THE HIGH OF 49 AT PHX                
WILL BE 17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE. A BIT WARMER OVER FAR             
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND ALONG LOWER COLORADO RIVER WHERE SKIES HAVE            
ALREADY BEGUN TO CLEAR...BUT EVEN OUT THERE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW                
NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID 50S. COOLER TONIGHT...BUT WITH DEW POINTS            
ELEVATED AS THEY ARE...MIN TEMPS WON'T BE AS COLD AS WHAT WILL OCCUR            
THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF NIGHTS. POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND              
FOG MAINLY OVER S-CNTRL AZ LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.                    
ETA/AVN/MRF IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT WE WILL STAY QUITE COOL THE             
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CANNOT ARGUE WITH THAT BASED ON LONG WAVE                  
PATTERN AND FORECAST LOW LEVEL TEMPS. QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL             
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO                  
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OVER S-CNTRL AZ...WITH A             
BETTER CHANCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A BIT MORE SNOW COULD               
FALL MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FOOT LEVEL. IN WAKE OF THIS                              
DISTURBANCE...EXPECT THE COLDEST NIGHTS SO FAR THIS MONTH WEDNESDAY             
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST AS WELL AS                  
FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH                   
-CENTRAL DESERT (DOWNTOWN PHX COULD LOWER TO 36 DEGREES BOTH                    
NIGHTS). SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS LIKELY BY FRIDAY...AND MILDER                 
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE UPON US AS ANOTHER                     
DISTURBANCE TRACKS TOWARD THE ESE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN WAKE             
OF THIS DISTURBANCE...UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES...LEADS TO SFC HIGH                  
FORMATION TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY              
CONDITIONS AND COOL CONDITIONS SUNDAY. DRY WITH WARMER TEMPS                    
EXPECTED MON-TUES AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. 500 MB                 
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THAT TIME...BUT WILL                
ONLY MOVE TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SINCE LOW LEVELS                
WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UNDER WEAK WIND CONDITIONS. DG                             
.PSR...HEAVY SNOW WARNING ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR AZ ZONE 24 UNTIL 7 PM             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1020 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2001                                                     
WILL NEED TO UPDATE ZFP FOR TEMPS AND PCPN WORDING TODAY.                       
A CONTRAST IN WEATHER ACROSS THE CWFA THIS MORNING.  LOW CLOUD                  
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE             
OVER CNTRL ND...WITH ERN EDGE FROM JUST EAST OF JAMESTTOWN TO NEAR              
LAKOTA.  MOVEMENT HAS AREA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST.  BIS SOUNDING                
SHOWS GOOD FZDZ POTENTIAL AT 12Z WITH MOIST VERY LOW LEVELS AND VERY            
DRY AIR ABV 900 MB.                                                             
SFC LOW THIS MORNING NEAR PIERRE WITH ANOTHER WK LOW IN NW SD.                  
APPARENT WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SFC LOW TO NR GFK THEN TO NR BDE.              
STRONG 85H INFLOW (30-40KT FROM UPPER AIR DATA) FLOWING THRU ERN                
SD/MN INTO AREA...OVERRUNNING WARM FRONT AND CAUSING LOW CLOUDS JUST            
WEST OF WARM FRONT IN CNTRL ND.  STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER SE ND            
ATTM...BUT LIKE LOW TRACK FROM RUC SHOWING IT NR JAMESTOWN AT 21Z.              
THUS WITH THIS TRACK DONT LOOK FOR MUCH EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF LOW             
CLOUDS/FZDZ INTO ERN ND THIS AFTN...WITH EXPANSE MORE NORTHEAST                 
TOWARD DEVILS LAKE/LANDGON.  THUS WILL UPDATE FOR FZDZ DVL AREA AS              
DVL FCST SOUNDING VIA ETA SHOWS POTENTIAL FZDZ SOUNDING WITH LOW                
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY 850 AND ABV.  POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ MAY ALSO                
PARTS OF NE ND...(JUST WEST AND NORTH OF GFK) BY LATE TODAY.  NO                
ADVISORY ANTICIPATED ATTM...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CAREFULLY.  THERE            
SHOULD BE SOME MOISTENING IN THE 850-500 LAYER LATE TODAY/THIS                  
EVENING OVER DVL ZONE AND ALSO SOME 85H COOLING WHICH HOPEFULLY WILL            
ALLOW PCPN TO GO OVER TO MORE OF A LIGHT SNOW VS STAYING AS FZDZ.               
WITH POSITION OF SFC LOW AND 85H TEMPS RISING TO ZERO TO PLUS 2                 
(FAR-GFK EAST INTO MN) WILL NEED TO ADJUST HIGHS TEMPS ABOUT 5 TO IN            
SOME CASES 10 DEGREES UPWARD VALLEY EAST.                                       
ALSO WILL UPDATED SKY COVER WORDING FOR MORE SUN EAST OF LOW.                   
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
RIDDLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd