AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
230 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
LATEST WVI INDICATED MONSOONAL MOISTR PLUME THAT WAS OVR THE CWA                
DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT WITH DRY AIR                
BEHIND IT OVR THE EXTREME NW CWA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM EARLY                
MORNING TSRA OVR THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAS DRIFTING NW INTO C              
KS. THIS MOISTR MAY BE TOO FAR EAST TO AFFECT OUR CWA ONCE IT MEETS             
UP WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTR. NEVERTHELESS THE DIFFERENCES IN THE               
MODELS IS APPARENT BETWEEN THE NGM AND ETA. THE NGM TSCTS OVR GLD               
SHOWED IMPRESSIVE OMEGAS WITH SOME MID LVL MOISTR JUST AFTER 00Z.               
THE RUC AND THE NGM HAD A STRONG 5H/VORT MAX WHERE THE ETA WAS WEAKER           
AND THE NGM/AVN/RUC HAD MID LVL CAA OVR THE CWA. IN ADDITION THE ETA            
HAD THE MID LVLS DRIER BUT ALL MODELS DID HAVE A TROUGH MVG THOUGH              
THE CWA THIS EARLY EVENING. AFTER MODIFYING THE 12Z DDC SOUNDING                
WHICH INDICATED CAPES OVER 2000J THIS AFTN AND IT DOES BREAK THE CAP.           
IF THE NGM IS THE CORRECT MODEL THAN THE CWA CUD HAVE SCT TSRA THIS             
EVENING WHERE AS THE ETA WUD KEEP IT ISOLD TO WDLY SCT. ALL THREE               
MAIN MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE             
PRESENT SFC SYSTEMS WITH THE NGM HAVING A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE ON THEIR             
STRENGTH BUT IT MAY BE OVER DOING IT ABIT ON THE MOISTURE.                      
NEVERTHELESS WITH A 5H/TROUGH PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND SOME CAA                 
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA...FEW TSRA           
SHUD DEVELOP THIS LATE AFTN INTO THE EVE.                                       
A SFC COLD FRONT OVR NW NEBRASKA SAGS SOUTH ACROS PORTIONS OF THE CWA           
MONDAY WITH SOME MID LVL VORT ADVTN. SFC WNDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY              
BY THE END OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL THE CWA AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROS              
THE N CWA BY EVENING. THIS EASTERLY WIND SHUD USHER ALITTLE MORE                
MOISTR INTO THE CWA WITH BOTH THE ETA/AVN HAVING THE SFC FRONT                  
ACROSS THE N FA...EXPECT TSRA TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD. MID LVL           
MOISTR INC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE S CWA              
TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THE FRONT               
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROS THE S CWA TUESDAY AND WITH 5H/HGHTS             
REMAINING NEAR 590...AFTN TMPS SHUDNT DROP TOO MUCH. AS THE FRONT               
RETREATS NORTH WEDNESDAY SFC WINDS SHUD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND               
TMPS SHUD CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WITH A CONT SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA THRU               
THURS. THE 5H/RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN           
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE FA FROM THE NW. WITH                     
INCREASING MOISTR AT THIS TIME...TSRA CHANCES MAY INC FRIDAY WITH               
COOLR TMPS.                                                                     
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
VPAPOL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDDC 042017 COR  ks                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
915 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
LATEST RUC/MESOETA...ETA AND ESP NGM ALL HINT AT UVVS AND VORT MAX TO           
ROTATE AROUND UPPER HIGH...TO DRIFT OVER E TN AND SPREAD PCPN INTO E TN         
AND THEN NW INTO SC KY BTWN 06-12Z TNGHT-IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT            
POPS TMRW DAY AS WELL. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...I HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT           
THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP         
A REAL CLOSE EYE ON THINGS.                                                     
CURRENT ZONES LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.                                   
HAPPY 4TH!!                                                                     
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HALL                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 050035  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                      
IR/VIS LOOPS SHOWING THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS           
BLOWING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SPILLING INTO THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS         
OF CWA AS WELL.                                                                 
LAPS DATA INDICATING CAPE VALUES ALREADY AROUND 1500 J/KG. MODEL                
SOUNDINGS FROM 03Z ETA AND 09Z RUC FORECASTING CAPE VALUES AOA 3000             
LATE AFTERNOON... WITH LITTLE/NO CAP. VORT CENTER THAT PRODUCED                 
CONVECTION ACROSS NY OVERNIGHT IS DROPPING SE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER         
RIDGE.. BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH           
TO THE AREA TO PROVIDE ANY LIFT. 00Z RAMS SHOWING POTENTIAL ON A LARGE          
CONVERGENT AREA NEAR THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON... AS A RESULT OF                   
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW AND SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WINDS FROM           
THE WATER. THIS BOUNDARY AND CHANCES FOR ANY BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION         
TO THE NORTH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.. AND WILL         
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR AREAS FROM DCA/BWI EAST.  SMALLER 20 POP FOR           
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA..  UPCAPPED SOUNDING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS           
HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR         
TODAY. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING STORMS FOR           
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.. AS STORMS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS HAVE         
NOT DIED OFF UNTIL 00-01Z.                                                      
HAVE BROKEN UP ZONE GROUPS QUITE A BIT BECAUSE OF TEMPS TODAY. KLWX             
VAD WINDS SHOWING WEST 20 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...  AND MIXING              
SHOULD SHIFT OUR WINDS FROM SW TO W BY LATE MORNING. TEMPS NEAR THE             
BLUE RIDGE FROM CO-OP OBS YESTERDAY WERE AROUND 100.. AND SHOULD GO A           
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THIS YET TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS. TEMPS FOR          
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S            
TEMPS AND A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FWC 3-HOURLY READINGS.  WILL RAISE          
TEMPS FOR THE CITIES A DEGREE OR TWO. WILL ISSUE A NPW STATEMENT WITH           
ZONES... AND RE-ISSUE PNS WITH SAFETY TIPS SEEING THAT SEVERAL HUNDRED          
THOUSAND PEOPLE WILL BE OUT ON THE MALL THIS AFTERNOON FOR HOLIDAY              
EVENTS.                                                                         
.LWX...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                  
MARGRAF!                                                                        
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                      
00Z UPR AIR INDICATES EXPANSIVE RDG ACRS ERN CONUS WITH TROF OUT IN             
PAC NW. WV LOOP HINTS AT SHRTWV RIDING NEWD THRU MN IN SWLY FLOW AHD            
OF NW TROF WITH TROPICAL PLUME FEEDING INTO WRN GRT LKS. 03Z SFC                
CHART INDICATES WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS CNTRL CWA IN WAKE OF            
CNVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS SINCE PASSED INTO ERN U.P. BNDRY SEPARATES              
MUCH COOLER AIR DOWNDRAFT AIR OVR LK SUP/NRN ZNS WITH LAPS SHOWING              
LARGE CIN FM OPPRESSIVE... VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO S WITH DWPTS CLOSE             
TO 80 ACRS NRN WI AND CAPE OVR 5000 J/KG PER LAPS. THIS CAPE                    
CONSISTENT WITH 00Z GRB SDNG WHICH HAS CAPE OF 4600 J/KG BUT WITH               
SHARP CAPPING INVRN BASE ARND H85. HORIZONTAL LO LVL SHEAR ACRS                 
BNDRY QUITE APRNT WITH NNELY FLOW AT MQT AND SSWLY WND TO S OF                  
OUTFLOW. 00Z GRB ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FM H9-3 NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL                 
WSWLY WITH WND GENERALLY 30-40KT. LATEST 88D SHOWS TSRA MOVG INTO               
MQT COUNTY WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER APRCHG GOGEBIC. DLH HAD PUT OUT A               
TORNADO WRNG FOR A CELL IN THIS CLUSTER IN BAYFIELD COUNTY WI...AND             
RADAR INDICATES A HOOK PATTERN. A TORNADO HERE WOULD BE CONSISTENT              
WITH SGNFT LO LVL BNDRY/SHEAR.                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT CENTER ARND COVG/INTENSITY OF CNVCTN              
AND WHETHER EXISTING DYNAMICS/LO LVL CNVGC WL BE ABLE TO BRK STRG               
CAP OBSVD ON GRB SDNG. 00Z RUC INDICATES UPR SHRTWV IN MN WL WEAKEN             
AS IT RIDES EWD AWAY FM PAC NW TROF...BUT LGT DATA INDICATES INCRSG             
ACTIVITY ACRS MN. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SHARP BNDRY AND SHRTWV TO W WITH            
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAP TO S... ASSUME ENUF LO LVL CNVG/UPR           
LVL DVGC TO INITIATE CNVCTN DURG NGT. SHEAR PROFILE FVRBL FOR PSBL              
TORNADO AND STRG TSRA WNDS. LATEST DISCUSSION FM SPC SUGS WATCH BOX             
MAY BE NEEDED IN CWA.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 050155  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
SHORT RANGE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION/SVR THREAT...AT 18Z IR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING      
DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW MCS OVR NE MN PROPAGATING E ALONG 700-300MB               
THICKNESS FIELD. GIVEN THIS TRAECTORY...NW CWA (INCLUDING ISLE                  
ROYALE) WILL BE UNDER GUN BETWEEN 19-23Z. IMBEDDED TSRA HAVE HISTORY            
OF BEING SVR...HOWEVER SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS SYSTEM                    
ENCOUNTERS STABLE MARINE LAYER AND HI THETA-E INFLOW BECOMES CUT OFF            
BY W LK SUPERIOR. SHORTWAVE SUPPORT EVIDENT BY MODEL INITIALIZATION             
OF VORT MAX IN E ND. THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE NE ACROSS W              
LK SUPERIOR...AND INTO ONTARIO BY 06Z. NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TSRA NOW            
FIRING ON OUTFLOW BDRY FROM C MN INTO NW WI. 15Z RUC INDICATES AXIS             
OF MAX THETA-E AT 850MB POOLED S OF ASSOC WARM FRONT OVER N                     
MN...SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY N INTO NE MN AND N LK SUPERIOR BY                   
03Z...WITH 40KT SW INFLOW JET IMPINGING ON BDRY. THICKNESS FIELD                
WILL REMAIN ORIENTED ESE...IMPLYING RISK OF PROPAGATION INTO W CWA              
TONIGHT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL GO HIGHEST            
POPS IN WEST...WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO SE AND E. WILL BEEF UP                  
WORDING FOR CONVECTION OVR W CWA WITH SUPPORT FROM SPC                          
LATER TONIGHT/MONDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES CWA FROM W. NGM                    
CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST...WITH AVN SLOWEST. ETA IS A GOOD                       
COMPROMISE...PUSHING FRONT ACROSS CWA BETWEEN 21Z-03Z MONDAY                    
EVENING...WITH NEXT THREAT OF CONVECTION. WILL GO CHANCE POPS FOR               
SHRA/TSRA...INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR E CWA. NGM SEEMS TOO STRONG                 
WITH DEEPENING WAVE OVR ONTARIO...RESULTING IN TIGHT PRS GRAD AND               
FWC GUIDANCE WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY TOO STRONG.                                  
BREEZY...DRIER...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HI             
PRS BUILDS TOWARD CWA FROM PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO               
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND GOOD RADATIONAL COOLING IN WEST CWA.                    
IN EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS CONTINUE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE              
IN RETROGRESSION OF LONGWAVE PATTERN. NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE            
TO ADVERTISE REBUILDING RIDGE OVR ROCKIES DAYS 5-7. THIS IS IN                  
RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHMENT OF THE GULF OF AK LOW...WHICH                   
ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM TROFING OVR E NOAM...INCLUDING THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION. MRF SHOWING CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY             
WITH LONG WAVE PATTERN...WITH INCREASING SUPPORT FROM ECMWF. FOR                
DAILIES...SFC HI PRS DOMINATES THE CWA WEDNESDAY SPONSERING SLIGHTLY            
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BY THURSDAY RETURN FLOW/WAD DEVELOP ACROSS UPPER            
MIDWEST AS HI PRS MOVES TO EAST. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE THE CHANCE               
FOR SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. QUASI-STNRY BOUNDARY SLIPS TO S             
OF CWA ON FRI WITH TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT JUST TO S OF CWA OVR              
WI. BY THIS TIME SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS FROM ROCKIES INDUCING LEE                
SIDE CYCLOGENISIS...AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE MRF AND ECMWF. THIS               
SYSTEM THEN MOVES NE ALONG BDRY THRU E GREAT LKS AS UPR TROF DIGS               
INTO GREAT LKS. GIVEN UNCERTAIN TIMING OF IMBEDDED SHORTWAVES                   
AND...WEEKEND APPEARS UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATE           
ACROSS CWA.                                                                     
COORD WITH APN/GRB                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
WOLF                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 042009  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
835 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS EVENING IS WITH PSBL CONVECTION AND HEAT               
ADVISORY. WIDESPREAD TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST N OF CWA AT 01Z...IN AN              
AREA N OF QS BOUNDARY ACRS CNTRL MN. 00Z MPX SOUNDING WAS NOT OVERLY            
CAPPED...AND THIS AIR WAS FEEDING NORTH INTO A REGION OF PERSISTENT             
SFC MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...                
PROFILERS AND SFC PRESS FALLS SEEM TO HINT AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER             
SW MN. 21Z RUC PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE...AND RIDES IT NORTH ALONG              
BOUNDARY TONIGHT. WITH 80H LLJ NOSING IN FM THE SW AFT DARK AND                 
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...MCS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY JUST N OF                 
THE CWA.                                                                        
HOT PROD CONTINUES TO PUSH IN OVERNIGHT...CREATING A SW-NE THICKNESS            
RIDGE ACROSS CNTRL MN. ORIENTATION OF THICKNESS PATTERN AND CORFIDI             
VECTORS WOULD HINT AT MCS STAYING MAINLY NORTH.                                 
WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS NRN CWA AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED S/W NR AREA              
OF MAX SFC MOIST FLUX CONV. OTRW...REST OF THE AREA APPEARS CAPPED.             
HEAT ADVISORY ONGOING AND LOOKING GOOD ATTM. WL LEAVE ALONE.                    
.MSP...HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY SE OF LINE FROM KCBG TO KHCD            
TO KULM.                                                                        
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 042028  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
945 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAX TEMPERATURES AND SMALL CHC             
OF CONVECTION WORKING INTO FAR PORTION OF CWA. CURRENT MCS RIDING               
JUST NORTH OF 582 1000-500 MB THICKNESS. CAP IN PLACE OVER S MN AND             
SE HALF OF SD. LATEST RUC KEEPING HIGH THICKNESSES AND CAP IN PLACE             
OVER S MN TODAY. HOWEVER..A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT SOME OUTFLOW UP               
AROUND FFM AND POSSIBLY MORE TO OCCUR INTO FAR NORTH PART OF                    
CWA..MAY CAUSE ENOUGH CONV TO OVERCOME CAP. ALSO POSSIBLE THAT TAIL             
END OF COVECTIVELY INDUCED TROUGH MAY BE PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING.                
TAIL END OF CONVECTION OVER NE SD MAY HOLD TOGETHER. WILL INTRODUCE             
SMALL POP FOR FAR NW CWA FOR AFTERNOON.                                         
OTHERWISE..HOT AND HUMID OVER REST OF AREA. S MN IN EXTENSION OF HOT            
BUBBLE OF AIR THAT EXTENDS BACK INTO HIGH PLAINS. CONDITIONS MAY BE             
JUST AT THRESHOLD OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. ACTUALLY CRITERIA            
WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT AS HEAT INDICES WERE ABOVE 80 LAST NIGHT.                
WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING AND ADD FOR TONIGHT. WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME            
MAX TEMPS IN MID 90S.                                                           
.MSP...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT. .                                       
MNZ047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028                           
JPR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMPX 040829  mn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
830 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
WEAK...HARD TO IDENTIFY SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SE MT WITH ANOTHER ONE          
THROUGH ID.  VORT MAX IN MW MT MOVING EAST.  GOES 10 DERIVED LI'S SHOW -        
6 IN SE MT WITH GOES 10 DERIVED CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J IN SE MT.  RADAR        
FROM BILLINGS INDICATE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT IN THE SE          
ZONES.  GOOD SPEED SHEAR SHOWN AT BILLINGS RADAR SITE.  LATEST SURFACE          
MAP INDICATES TWO INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHS THAT HAVE JUST FORMED...ONE          
WEST OF BILLINGS AND THE OTHER IN SE MT.  THESE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE...PLUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MIGHT BE THE TRIGGER         
FOR MORE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BREAK THE CAP IN         
SE MT.  00Z RUC SLOWS TROF...WHICH AGREES WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND         
SATELLITE IMAGERY PUTTING THE TROF AXIS...AND BEST VORTICITY ACROSS             
CENTRAL MT BY 12Z.  700 MB TROF PASSES INTO EASTERN MT BY 12Z.  EVEN            
WITH THE SLOWING OF THE TROF PASSAGE...CURRENT FORECAST COVERS IT WELL.         
WITH SPC KEEPING SE MT IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WILL NOT CHANGE ZONES.        
FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING EAST OF              
LIVINGSTON.  STROBIN                                                            
BIL BB 052/079 055/086 059 634000                                               
LVM .. 049/076 052/082 ... 636002                                               
HDN .. 051/081 053/087 ... 634000                                               
MLS .. 056/080 056/088 ... 636200                                               
4BQ .. 055/078 053/086 ... 636200                                               
BHK .. 053/079 053/087 ... 636200                                               
SHR BB 050/081 050/087 054 633000                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KTFX 050243  mt                                      

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
WILL GO WITH THE 18Z RUC WHICH PINPOINTS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN NORTH         
CENTRAL OREGON THAT IS MOVING SIGNIFICANLTY SLOWER THAN THE AVN...NGM           
AND ETA...BUT SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING EASTWARD FASTER THE PAST FEW             
HOURS. TFX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ECHOES TO NORTH WHICH ARE DECREASING         
AND MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT NOW ECHOES ARE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH.              
RADARS TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY. WITH FAIRLY STRONG           
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST...AND UPSLOPE AND                
MOISTURE IN AREA... WILL GO HIGH ON POPS NORTHERN ZONES. QPF PROGS AND          
MOS HAVE BEEN WAY TO DRY FOR AREA AND WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM BELIEVE IT         
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. AIR MASS PROBABLY DESTABIZIING IN THE SOUTHWEST          
WHERE HEATING BETTER AND SOME COOLING ALOFT...SO EXPECT LATE AFTERNOON          
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN NORTHEAST           
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. EXTRAPOLING THE RUC BEYOND 12 HOURS              
INDICATES TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA AT 12Z...SO WILL GO LOW POPS            
MONDAY...PLUS DOWNSLOPE INCREASING DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE RIDGING          
AND WARMING MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OARD                                        
GTF 6101 HLN 4101 HVR 6200                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KGGW 042042  mt                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
RUC FCST SOUNDINGS AND 12Z BUF SOUNDING MANIPULATION FOR TEMP/DWPT              
OF 84/75 REVEALED CAPES AROUND 4000 J/KG WITH LI OF -6 TO -7.                   
OVERLAYING 700 MB RUC TEMPS ON SAT REVEALS A STRONG CAP AND THE                 
REASON FOR LITTLE TSTM ACTVTY OVR SRN GRT LKS AND NYS.  KAPX 12Z                
SOUNDING SHOWS +21C AT 759 MB AND 700 MB TEMPS AT +15C.  WITH W TO              
NWLY FLO ALF SEE NO REASON WHY SUCH WARM AIR WILL NOT CONT TO MOVE              
INTO CNTRL AND SRN CWA THOUGH IT MAY MODIFY SLGTLY.  NGM/ETA ALSO               
FCST 850/700 MB TEMPS TO WARM OVR CNTRL NY TNGT SO WOULD EXPECT THE             
CAP TO HOLD STRONG.  THAT BEING SAID CONDS WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT              
ACRS NRN CWA.  CRRNT TSTM ACTVTY ACRS U.P. OF MI AND LK SUPERIOR                
SHWS TSTM ACTVTY DEVELOPING WELL INTO THE NRN PORTION OF CAP.  ALSO             
SOME SMALLER CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG LK BREEZE ACRS U.P. OF MI.                  
COORD WITH SPC IN AGRMNT WITH CONVECTION TO ARRIVE ARND MIDNGT.                 
SHEAR VALS WILL NOT BE THAT STRNG HWVR WITH BUILDING RDG AND                    
WEAKENING WIND FLO SO MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY              
RAIN...JUST LIKE THIS MRNG.  THEREFORE WILL INCRS POPS TO 70 PCNT               
ACRS NRN CWA AND GO WITH SCT POPS ACRS SRN TIER IN CASE ANY OUTFLOW             
BOUNDARIES MOVE INTO SRN TIER LATER TNGT...WILL ELIMINATE POPS ACRS SRN         
CWA.                                                                            
HOT AND HUMID CONDS WILL CONT THROUGH MON AS CONTD WARM AIR ALF                 
KEEPS LID ON TSTM ACTVTY.  RECORD HI IN BGM (91) IS IN JEOPARDY TMW             
AS EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO LOWER 90S.  OTHER RECORDS ARE MUCH                
HIER.                                                                           
BY TUES STRONGER UPPER SHT WV AND SFC CDFNT APPROACH AREA LATE IN               
THE DAY.  MSTR/INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED UNTIL THEN SO WOULD            
EXPECT MORE OF A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT GIVEN STRONGER LIFTING            
MECHANISM AND MORE COOLG ALF.                                                   
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KBUF 041922  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
NO FIREWORKS FROM MOTHER NATURE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES SFC AND               
ALOFT SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. JUST SOME CI ROTATING AROUND UPR HIGH             
AND WILL GO WITH MSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC AND MESO-ETA SHOW            
WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM N OVERNIGHT BUT NO ACTVTY CURRENTLY              
ASSCTD WITH IT AND SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. MIN TEMPS LOOK              
ON TRACK WITH LOW-MID 70S EXPECTED.                                             
CWF: CURRENTLY SW WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS OVER AREA EXCEPT               
NEAR 20 AT DIAMOND SHOALS. WILL LOWER SOUNDS TO 15 KTS BUT KEEP NRN             
SECTION OF CSTL WATERS 15-20 BUT ADJUST BREAK PT TO OCRACOKE.                   
.MHX...HEAT ADV NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095                                  
JBM                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 050103  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
820 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
.CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...                                                   
00Z SURFACE AND MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL            
SOUTH DAKOTA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER           
WYOMING. LATEST IR SATELLITE AND KMVX RADAR TRENDS INDICATED WIDELY             
SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF A BDE-BJI-DTL LINE             
WHICH IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY                  
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
21Z RUC SHOWED RATHER STRONG CAP INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT            
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING. EXPECT SHORTWAVE TROUGH           
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA TO IGNITE MCS COMPLEX OVER EASTERN               
MONTANA/WESTERN NODAK LATER TONIGHT. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD ONCE AGAIN             
PROPOGATE EAST OVERNIGHT REACHING RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 12Z. WILL             
MAKE COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING APPEARS           
ON TRACK.                                                                       
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
BERG                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 042035  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
315 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
DISCUSSION CONDENSED IN ANTICIPATION OF PSBL SVR CONVECTION.  MODELS IN         
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SFC AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH PERIOD.                 
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS REGION               
REMAINS SW UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS           
IN AGREEMENT IN BACKING SAID BOUNDARY WESTWARD AS NE PANHANDLE SFC LOW          
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SD.                                                        
INITIAL S/W RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT CONVECTION WEST LIFTS NE OUT OF FA          
BETWEEN 18 AND 00Z DEPENDING ON MODEL. SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN SUBS          
BEHIND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR PS AND WITH LITTEL CHANGE IN                      
AIRMASS...CONTINUED WAA TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN BE WARM. LATER GUIDANCE TEMPS        
SIMILAR AND SEEMS REASONBLE CONSIDERING ABOVE THINKING SO GENERALLY             
FOLLOWED.                                                                       
****AN UPDATE TO EARLIER WRITTEN DISCUSSION****CONVECTION PROPAGATING           
IN A MORE NORTHERLY ROUTE VS NE. FROM SPC COORD UPPER FLOW MAY BE               
BACKING MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL INDICATIONS WHICH IS HINTED BY VORT             
TRACK FROM RUC. AS A RESULT CONVECTION LIFTING INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR           
WHICH MAY LESSEN SVR THREAT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT PCPN CHANCES NOW          
GREATER FARTHER WEST OF FA VS E PTNS.                                           
WEAKER IMPULSES RIDE UP FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND WITH SFC                         
BOUNDARY...CAPES... INSTABILITY AND DEVELOPING 30 TO 50 KT LLJ COULD BE         
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.                                          
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY AS N STREAM S/W FLATTENS RIDGE AND         
PUSHES SFC BOUNDARY EAST OF FA ALLOWING DRIER AIR AND COOLER H8 TEMPS           
TO SPREAD OVER FA. VORT TAIL AND A LITTLE HIGHER INTEGRATED RH CLIPS            
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SHRA.                                  
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 040826  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                      
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES HAS ADVECTED                 
COOLER AIR FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE TROPOSPHERE INTO              
THE FORECAST AREA. A CAP WHICH EXISTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS              
TIME YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NEAR              
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.                                            
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHETHER TO INTRODUCE LOW POPS                
INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUPPORT                
SURFACE BASED CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG AND A LFC OF 5000 FT. THE ONLY               
INGREDIENT THAT APPEARS TO BE MISSING IS A LIFTING MECHANISM.                   
ALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS                  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE             
SHOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER WITH THE LFC SO LOW...ONLY WEAK                
LIFT WILL BE NEEDED. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN                
ATOKA COUNTY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE                
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS POINT I DON'T THINK ITS WORTH MENTIONING.             
ONLY CHANGE AT THIS POINT WILL BE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A                 
LITTLE IN A FEW AREAS.                                                          
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY MOST OF W AND C OK.                            
TX...CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TODAY WESTERN NORTH TX.                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 040821  ok                                      

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 1999                                                     
...WORK ZONES OUT AS PHLADMCTP...                                               
VIS IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF CU ACROSS CENTRAL PA...THE RESULT OF A            
A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN 8H TEMPS COMBINED WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE 70S.              
12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW 850 TEMP OF JUST 17C AT PIT...WHILE AREAS              
TO THE WEST AND EAST ARE 20C+. FEEL THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER THE            
NORTHERN MTNS WILL GIVE WAY TO PTSUNNY SKIES THIS AFTN AS WEST FLOW             
ADVECTS WARMER 8H TEMPS INTO THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...WILL KEEP THE              
"HAZY AND HOT" TERMINOLOGY OF PREVIOUS FCST.                                    
REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH...WHICH PRODUCED MCS OVER NEW ENGLAND...ARE            
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS            
SHOWING PLENTY OF CAPE (RUC LI'S PROGGED TO -10). THUS WILL KEEP THE            
CHC OF A TSRA OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. WARMER MID LVL TEMPS BEHIND               
S/WV SHOULD CAP THINGS OFF OVER THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE              
CHC OF A TSRA OVER THE NORTHWEST MTNS...WHERE A LAKE FRONT STORM IS             
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
AS OF 14Z...TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK WITH PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONTINUE               
THE HEAT ADV THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE                   
SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HOTTER ON MONDAY...BRINGING              
THE LOWER SUSQ UP TO HEAT WARNING CONDITIONS.                                   
.CTP...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE SE ZONES                      
       (PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066).                                            
FITZGERALD                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KPBZ 041423  pa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
954 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LITTLE TO KEY ON THIS UPDATE.  RUC PICKED            
UP VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH NY MCS AND DROPS IT DOWN EAST SIDE RIDGE            
BUT IT REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO IMPACT THIS AREA.  EXPECT              
A REPEAT OF SATURDAY CONVECTION BEGINNING IN MTNS FIRST...THEN                  
FTHLS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD            
KEEP STORMS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST...KEEPING MOST                
ACTIVITY OUT OF LOWLANDS.  FREEZING LEVEL AT 14K SO DO NOT EXPECT TO            
SEE MUCH IN WAY OF HAIL.  HOWEVER...SLOW MOVEMENT CREATE SOME MINOR             
FLOODING/PONDING PROBLEMS.   NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES THIS UPDATE.                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 041350  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
910 PM CDT SUN JULY 4 1999                                                      
WEAK WARM FRONT HANGING JUST SOUTH OF KABR ALL DAY HAS FINALLY                  
LIFTED NORTH PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR. MEGA AMOUNTS OF MOIST               
CONT TO POOL ALONG FRONT...EVIDENCE BY THE 80 DWPT REACHED AT KABR              
AT 01Z. 00Z KABR SOUNDING...MODIFIED FOR 01Z CURRENTS OF 86/80 GAVE             
US A CAPE OF 6400 J/KG WITH LI OF -13. CAP WAS 1.4 DEGREES...BELOW              
850 MB. HOWEVER...NO TRIGGER COMING THROUGH TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION.             
00Z RUC HAS MUCH OF CWA IN WEAK THTA-E TROF AND BEST LOLVL JET                  
SKIRTS NE OF CWA INTO MN. RUC ALSO SHOWS DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS MUCH            
OF CWA THROUGH NIGHT...WITH NO WELL DEFINED S/W MOVING THRU TO HELP             
TRIGGER CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE SOME POPS IN FOR FAR NERN COUNTIES IN            
CASE CONVECTION IN MN BACKBUILDS INTO AREA. OTHERWISE WILL                      
BACKPEDDLE ON POPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR MOST OF CWA.                             
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 050038  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
240 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
08Z SURFACE MAP SHOW FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH                 
DAKTOA INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. LOCATION FRONT THIS                         
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE KEY TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND                     
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                    
NGM/AVN MOVE FRONT FURTHER NORTH DURING THE DAY THAN DOES THE ETA               
AND 06Z RUC. CURRENTLY FRONT IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN 6HR                 
FORECAST FROM ETA...MAINLY DUE TO CONVECTICE OUTFLOW. BASE ON THE               
MODEL PERFORMENCE THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GO WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN            
LOCATION OF THE FRONT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PLACE THE FRONT            
FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST               
WYOMING AND BLACK HILLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE MOVE EAST                 
THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER                
AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVER NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL                  
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR                 
BLACK HILLS AS MANY CREEKS RUNNING HIGH. DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK                
FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW             
HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY.                                                           
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO MENTION                  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.                           
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 040828  sd                                      

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1130 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                      
UPDATED A COUPLE OF ZONES TO UP POPS NE BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE                
TRENDS.  WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN A FEW PLACES...HOWEVER               
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT IT WOULD NOT TAKE THAT MUCH HEATING TO REACH            
(CRP AND RKP WERE ALREADY 86F BEFORE NOON).  THUS...WILL LET HIGHS GO           
AS IS.                                                                          
NEW FWC POPS LOOK SUSPICIOUSLY DRY.  HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO LOOK AT               
ANY OF THE MODELS OTHER THAN THE RUC AND PREVIOUS MESO-ETA...BUT                
HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THOSE NUMBERS.  WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO IGNORE                
THESE.                                                                          
MARINE: MAINTAINED THE SCA OFFSHORE FOR SWELLS...MAY BE LOWERED                 
TONIGHT. CAUTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THE BAYS/INLAND WATERWAYS THOUGH            
WINDS HIGHER IN SHOWERS/STORMS.                                                 
.CRP...SCA GMZ250-255-270-275.                                                  
86/GW...75/JM                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMAF 041624  tx                                      

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH                                    
320 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH WILL MOVE              
LITTLE TODAY.  HOT AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS              
FRONT TODAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OREGON WILL MOVE EAST             
ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NUDGE THE FRONT             
INTO CENTRAL UTAH BY LATE TONIGHT.                                              
DISCUSSION...REMAINS OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE                
INTO CNTRL CANADA BY THIS EVENING.  ONE LAST VORT LOBE CURRENTLY                
OVER CNTRL OREGON WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER NE ACROSS IDAHO/MONTANA THIS            
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ONCE THIS IS OUT OF THE WAY...LOOK FOR THE                  
4-CORNER HIGH TO SET UP AND REMAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY WEST OF SLC ONCE AGAIN TO BE THE BIG QUESTION MARK             
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY             
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS SEEN IN DOPPLER VELOCITY AND MESONET                  
DATA.  MODELS FROM THE 00Z AND 03Z RUNS OFFERING 2 SOLUTIONS.  THE              
ETA...MESO-ETA...RUC ALL FORCE THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SLC EARLY THIS              
MORNING...THEN INTO CNTRL UTAH THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AVN ON THE OTHER            
HAND PUT THE BOUNDARY TO SLC LATE THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWS LITTLE              
PUSH BEYOND THAT.  REALLY DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS             
THAT WILL PUSH THIS BOUNDARY ALONG...SO FEEL THE AVN PROBABLY THE               
BEST SOLUTION GOING.  LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND ADVISORIES               
ON TAP...BUT WILL FOCUS THESE BASED ON SATURDAY'S RESULTS.                      
ABOVE MENTIONED VORT LOBE THAT RACES ACROSS NRN ROCKIES SHOULD                  
SUPPLY THE GENTLE NUDGE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO                  
FINALLY MOVE INTO CNTRL UTAH TONIGHT.  NRN SECTIONS WILL SEE COOLER             
BUT STILL DRY CONDITIONS...WHILE THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN HOT...DUSTY              
AND IN SOME LOCATIONS BREEZY.  NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATION                 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AIRMASS QUITE DEVOID OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS            
OUTSIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LACKING.                                        
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH BY MIDWEEK BRINGS ON THE                    
QUESTION OF HOW SOON WILL THE 'MONSOONAL' MOISTURE FOLLOW.  AVN 72-             
HOUR PROG SHOWS A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE PUSHING NORTH THROUGH NV/WRN             
UT.  CORRESPONDING 700 MB THETA-E STILL HINTS THAT THE MOISTURE                 
IS REMAINING BACK IN SERN AZ TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  APPEARS RIGHT NOW              
THAT IF ANY MOISTURE DOES SURGE NORTH...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE                    
TOWARDS WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY FOR THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF                  
UTAH.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AZ AND NRN MEXICO TO SEE HOW                 
THINGS WILL PLAY OUT.                                                           
SLC --0 CDC 000  CONGER                                                         
.SLC...WIND ADVISORY TODAY UTZ005-015-016.                                      
 ut                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
840 AM PDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON HANGING BACK LONGER AND DEEPER            
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THOUGHT.  DPROG/DT OF NEW 12Z ETA SHOWS            
A COLD POOL OF -26C AT 500MB NEAR KDLS WHICH WASN'T FORESEEN BY                 
MODELS.  CORRESPONDING COMMA CLOUD MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PANHANDLE            
INTO WESTERN MT.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS                 
MAINLY STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF A KLWS-KMLP LINE.  SATELLITE TRENDS            
INDICATE THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.  OTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS                
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN BC.  METARS NORTH OF THE BORDER              
ARE ALL SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS           
THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  BUT MORNING HAM REPORTS INDICATE SOME           
RAIN IN NORTHERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.                                               
BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED               
COLD POOL.  NEW ETA AND RUC FORECAST THIS COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRACK               
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA TODAY AND BE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY 00Z.  SMALL              
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BASIN ALREADY DYING OUT BUT IT SHOWS THE             
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  MORNING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY UP              
FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS.  ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/VORT MAX RESULT IN             
SOME DECENT DIV-Q UPWARD FORCING AT 300-500MB AND 500-700MB.  THIS              
COUPLED WITH THE 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE              
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.            
WILL UPDATE MOST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS.                                         
RJ                                                                              
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 066/046/076 320                                                             
CQV 065/045/076 421                                                             
S86 064/043/073 431                                                             
COE 066/044/075 420                                                             
WWP 062/040/071 431                                                             
LWS 073/048/080 200                                                             
MOS 064/043/074                                                                 
EAT 073/053/081 000                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSEW 041528  wa                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
306 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS            
TO THE LOWER AND MID 90S INLAND AREAS AND DEW-POINTS RANGING IN THE             
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SUGGEST THAT SOME WORDING TO INDICATE HEAT              
INDICES MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED FOR SOME LOCATIONS.                           
CURRENTLY...AT 1 AM SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SHOWED CLEAR SKIES               
ACROSS THE AREA. A WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SUBSISTENCE ACROSS                 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. AND RADAR SHOWED NO RAINFALL           
IN THE AREA. THROUGH MID MORNING THE 03Z RUC KEEPS DRY AREA OVER THE            
AREA WITH THE THE AVERAGE MOISTURE IN THE 100-500 LAYER AVERAGING               
LESS THAN 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA.                                           
OVER THE LONGER TERM THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE DRY AIR REMAINS ACROSS            
THE AREA THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN THE MOISTURE RETURNS LATE TUESDAY AS A           
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FWC                
TEMPS SEEMS SLIGHTLY TO HIGH BUT WITH GOOD SUBSTANCE TEMPERATURES               
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER AND MID             
90S FOR SOME INTERIOR AREAS.                                                    
AMG 93/71/92/70 1032                                                            
SSI 88/75/90/74 0032                                                            
JAX 91/72/92/73 1022                                                            
GNV 92/70/92/71 2021 33                                                         
BLS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 050644  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                      
00Z UPR AIR INDICATES EXPANSIVE RDG ACRS ERN CONUS WITH TROF OUT IN             
PAC NW. WV LOOP HINTS AT SHRTWV RIDING NEWD THRU MN IN SWLY FLOW AHD            
OF NW TROF WITH TROPICAL PLUME FEEDING INTO WRN GRT LKS. 03Z SFC                
CHART INDICATES WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BNDRY ACRS CNTRL CWA IN WAKE OF            
CNVECTIVE BAND THAT HAS SINCE PASSED INTO ERN U.P. BNDRY SEPARATES              
MUCH COOLER AIR DOWNDRAFT AIR OVR LK SUP/NRN ZNS WITH LAPS SHOWING              
LARGE CIN FM OPPRESSIVE... VERY MOIST AIRMASS TO S WITH DWPTS CLOSE             
TO 80 ACRS NRN WI AND CAPE OVR 5000 J/KG PER LAPS. THIS CAPE                    
CONSISTENT WITH 00Z GRB SDNG WHICH HAS CAPE OF 4600 J/KG BUT WITH               
SHARP CAPPING INVRN BASE ARND H85. HORIZONTAL LO LVL SHEAR ACRS                 
BNDRY QUITE APRNT WITH NNELY FLOW AT MQT AND SSWLY WND TO S OF                  
OUTFLOW. 00Z GRB ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FM H9-3 NRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL                 
WSWLY WITH WND GENERALLY 30-40KT. LATEST 88D SHOWS TSRA MOVG INTO               
MQT COUNTY WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER APRCHG GOGEBIC. DLH HAD PUT OUT A               
TORNADO WRNG FOR A CELL IN THIS CLUSTER IN BAYFIELD COUNTY WI...AND             
RADAR INDICATES A HOOK PATTERN. A TORNADO HERE WOULD BE CONSISTENT              
WITH SGNFT LO LVL BNDRY/SHEAR.                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR OVRNGT CENTER ARND COVG/INTENSITY OF CNVCTN              
AND WHETHER EXISTING DYNAMICS/LO LVL CNVGC WL BE ABLE TO BRK STRG               
CAP OBSVD ON GRB SDNG. 00Z RUC INDICATES UPR SHRTWV IN MN WL WEAKEN             
AS IT RIDES EWD AWAY FM PAC NW TROF...BUT LGT DATA INDICATES INCRSG             
ACTIVITY ACRS MN. GIVEN PRESENCE OF SHARP BNDRY AND SHRTWV TO W WITH            
VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR UNDER CAP TO S... ASSUME ENUF LO LVL CNVG/UPR           
LVL DVGC TO INITIATE CNVCTN DURG NGT. SHEAR PROFILE FVRBL FOR PSBL              
TORNADO AND STRG TSRA WNDS. LATEST DISCUSSION FM SPC SUGS WATCH BOX             
MAY BE NEEDED IN CWA.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 050155  mi                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
410 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR ALL FA FOR FIRST PDS PRIOR TO              
ISSUING ZFP...                                                                  
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES INTO AREA OF MORE         
STABLE AIR OVER NE ND. NEWEST RUC SHOWS THIS AREA TO STAY A BIT MORE            
STABLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH LI/S ONLY DOWN TO 0 AT 15Z. FAR SRN ZONE TO         
BE MORE UNSTABLE IN AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG FREONTAL            
BOUNDARY. ONCE COLD FRONT SHOVES INTO THIS AREA EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO         
FIRE THERE...BUT ACTIVITY TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LAPSE RATES DIMINISH             
THIS MORNING. WILL CUT BACK ON POPS ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN             
FA...AND REMOVE WORDING OF SEVERE FROM WRKZFP. ALL OTHER ELEMENTS LOOK          
ON TRACK. WILL ISSURE ZFP SHORTLY.                                              
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
DJK/RJT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 050835  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
215 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST PERIOD...THEN TEMPS...           
MODELS SIMILAR AT 5H AND AT SFC...BUT ALL WERE A BIT TOO FAR WEST WITH          
LOCATION OF SFC LOW. ALL DO SHOW COLD FRONT TO RAPIDLY PUSH THROUGH THE         
FA TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. NGM SHOWING              
WARMING TREND AT 850 MB IN LATER PDS...HOWEVER WITH 5H PATTERN TAKING           
ON A WNW ORIENTATION COOLER ETA PREFERRED.                                      
.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER WRN ND THIS AM AHEAD OF S/W AND         
ALONG FRONT IN AREA OF DECENT SFC CONVERGENCE. AS FRONT CONTINUES TO            
PUSH EAST...IT WILL INTERACT WITH AREA OF HIGHER RH OVER SRN FA. CAPES          
RUNNING ABOUT 2000 J/KG THIS AREA...AND THUS WILL BUMP UP POPS THIS             
REGION FOR TODAY. RUC HAS AREA OF BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SE OF FA BY         
15Z...BUT SECONDARY AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NRN FA LINGERS            
TIL 18Z. TIMING OF MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER ND SUGGESTS THAT THIS         
ACTIVITY TO LINGER OVER EXTREME NRN MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PCPN         
ENDING BY 21Z. WILL WORD ZFP ACCORDINGLY.                                       
.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO FA FROM THE WEST AND WILL                
DOMINATE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FWC/FAN REFLECTING WARMING OF 850          
MB TEMPS AS BOTH THESE MODELS SHOW WAA SETTING UP...BUT WITH                    
AFOREMENTIONED WNW 5H FLOW...THESE MODELS TOO AGRESSIVE ON RETURNING            
WARMER AIR...WITH ETA MORE REASONABLE. WILL CUT TEMPS BACK FOR THIS             
REASON.                                                                         
.EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN PLAINS FOR                 
WED/THU...WITH FALLING HEIGHTS ON FRI. CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A          
BIG PLAYER WED/THU AS ANOTHER WARMFRONT SURGES NORTHWARD...WITH THE             
GULF ONCE AGAIN OPEN. AS UPPER LOW PASSES THROUGH FA ON FRI...TSRA              
STILL A POSSIBILITY WITH COLD POOL. THIS ALL HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT            
EXTENDED...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED.                                               
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
DJK/RJT                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 050124  nd                                      

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
840 AM PDT SUN JUL 4 1999                                                       
SECONDARY LOW OVER CENTRAL WASHINGTON HANGING BACK LONGER AND DEEPER            
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THOUGHT.  DPROG/DT OF NEW 12Z ETA SHOWS            
A COLD POOL OF -26C AT 500MB NEAR KDLS WHICH WASN'T FORESEEN BY                 
MODELS.  CORRESPONDING COMMA CLOUD MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN PANHANDLE            
INTO WESTERN MT.  RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM IS                 
MAINLY STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF A KLWS-KMLP LINE.  SATELLITE TRENDS            
INDICATE THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.  OTHER BATCH OF CLOUDS                
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN BC.  METARS NORTH OF THE BORDER              
ARE ALL SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BUT IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AS           
THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  BUT MORNING HAM REPORTS INDICATE SOME           
RAIN IN NORTHERN OKANOGAN COUNTY.                                               
BIGGER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED               
COLD POOL.  NEW ETA AND RUC FORECAST THIS COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRACK               
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA TODAY AND BE OVER THE PANHANDLE BY 00Z.  SMALL              
AREA OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BASIN ALREADY DYING OUT BUT IT SHOWS THE             
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  MORNING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY UP              
FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS.  ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/VORT MAX RESULT IN             
SOME DECENT DIV-Q UPWARD FORCING AT 300-500MB AND 500-700MB.  THIS              
COUPLED WITH THE 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ALONG THE PANHANDLE              
SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.            
WILL UPDATE MOST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS.                                         
RJ                                                                              
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 066/046/076 320                                                             
CQV 065/045/076 421                                                             
S86 064/043/073 431                                                             
COE 066/044/075 420                                                             
WWP 062/040/071 431                                                             
LWS 073/048/080 200                                                             
MOS 064/043/074                                                                 
EAT 073/053/081 000                                                             
.GEG...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSEW 041528  wa                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
936 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PUSHING TOWARDS 30N WILL KEEP               
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT A TAD LIGHTER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.               
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DRY OUT...WITH GREATEST DRYING OVER NORTHERN            
SECTIONS.  THIS WAS REFLECTED IN RADAR LOOP THAT WAS SHOWING WIDELY             
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.   ALONG              
WITH THE DRYING...SUBSIDENCE HAS EVEN WARMED THE MID LEVELS                     
SLIGHTLY.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                    
CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL HEATING/CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST...            
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS.  OVERALL THOUGH...DO NOT SEE ANYTHING            
SIGNIFICANT IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT NEEDS UPDATING.                        
MARINE...MAPS ANALYSIS HAS SHOWN THAT GRADIENT WAS SUPPORTING 10 KT             
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST BUOY                  
OBSERVATIONS.  LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.                 
THEREFORE THE NORTHERN LEG WILL BE UPDATED TO LOWER WINDS TO 10 KT.             
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
LASCODY                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 051325  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
920 AM EDT MON JUL 05 1999                                                      
AFTER DAYS OF MODELS ADVERTIZING A DRYING TREND ACROSS CWA...WE                 
MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE ONE. INVERTED TROF LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR                  
WEEKEND RAINS NOW WEST OF CWA. IN ITS WAKE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR              
CLEARLY INDICATES GUD SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE ALONG GA             
COAST AND MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CWA. UPPER RIDGE FOLLOWS SUIT                  
NEARLY JUXTAPSED TO YIELD A HOT DAY. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN 12Z TLH              
SOUNDING WITH DEEP EASTERLIES...SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STABLE INDICES               
LAST 12 HOURS...I.E PCPTL WATER 2.09 VS 1.43 OR LIFTED/K -3/36 VS               
-3/15. CURRENT RUC KEEPS CWA DRY TODAY..ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM                    
SEABREEZE IMPACTED COAST. THUS SEA BREEZE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM                
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT ESE FAVORS WNW FACING COASTS WITH LITTLE                 
REACHING INLAND SITES. THUS FOCUS I.E. PANAMA CITY TO DESTIN WHERE              
MM5 PUTS ITS BULLSEYE LATER TODAY AND FRANKLIN THRU WAKULLA COAST               
(LOCALLY TYPE 6 BECOMING TYPE 2 SEA BREEZE) BUT THIS MODEL SEEMS TO             
BE OVERFORECASTING PRECIP. THUS AOB 30 PERCENT POPS THIS AFTERNOON              
LUKS GOOD WITH ALONG COAST WITH BLO 20 PERCENT ELSEWWHERE. 13Z TEMPS            
IN LINE WITH FWC RATHER THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH FAN. MID 90S WITH             
LIGHT SE FLOW GUD BET MOST SITES AND THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR                     
ACTIVITES SHUD CONSIDER SHADE AND WATER IN THEIR PLANS.                         
COASTAL WATERS LOOK FINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                 
BLOCK                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 051312  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
AREA OF CONVECTION AFFECTING ERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING HAS           
MOVED INTO ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER AREA DEVELOPING FROM WRN UPR MI SW              
THROUGH NRN WI. RUC AND ETA BOTH DOING A GOOD JOB OF PIN-POINTING AREA          
OF STRONG 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND THETA E RIDGE AXIS                
FUELING THIS AREA OF CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION BY BOTH MODELS KEEPS             
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER WI THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STILL...WOULD NOT         
RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM REACHING ERN UPR AND/OR         
FAR NRN LOWER COUNTIES DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT AT THIS          
TIME...DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT SVR POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER THIS             
EVENING...AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 60         
KTS AT 500 MB AND THETA E RIDGE IS OVERHEAD.                                    
HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON           
AS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION TO THE W HAS AND          
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. SHOULD NOT BE THICK              
ENOUGH TO INHIBIT TEMPS FROM REACHING FORECASTED HIGHS. THUS...WILL             
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH NE LOWER               
SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AFFECTS WITH GUSTY SW WINDS         
OF 15 TO 25 MPH.                                                                
.APX...HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR ALL OF NRN LWR (MIZ016>036-041-042).             
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 051132 AMD  mi                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1000 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
UPPER AIR PLOTS AND BUF SOUNDING SHOWS PLENTY OF MID LVL WARM                   
AIR WITH 700 MB TEMPS ARND +13 AND +14C.  THIS WILL KEEP A LID ON               
THE BUBBLING LOW LVL MSTR CRRNTLY IN PLACE.  MSTR A BIT DEEPER AND              
UP TO ABOUT 6K FT AND ALREADY SEEING FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD.                 
WILL GO WITH PTLY SUNNY INSTEAD OF MSTLY SUNNY EXCEPT ARND AVP AREA             
WHERE CU IS LACKING.  FCST TEMPS IN MID 90S LOOK GOOD..ESP SYR WITH             
AN OVERNGT MIN OF 80.  WILL BACK OFF ON WIND FCST SLGTLY AS 850 FLO             
ARND 30 KTS WHICH IS SAME AS YESTERDAY AND 850 FLO NOT EXPECTED TO              
STRENGTHEN AS RDG WILL CONT TO BUILD.  21Z RUC SHOWS 850 WINDS ARND             
25 KTS.  ZNS OUT.                                                               
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
HOLMES                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 051323  ny                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1010 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
NOT MUCH IF ANY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO GSO            
OR MHX SOUNDING THIS MORNING UNFORTUNATELY... BUT RNK SOUNDING                  
CONTINUES TO INDICATE INSUFFICIENT PWS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN                   
ISOLATED ACTIVITY... SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF ZONES.               
BEST SPOT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LEE                  
TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK UPPER WAVE DROPPING DOWN THE                
MIDATLANTIC COAST... AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST RUC. TEMPERATURES               
ARE RUNNING 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE THOSE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY... SO              
CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGHS LOOK GOOD. CONTINUE WITH HEAT ADVISORY AS            
IS. WARM SPOT OF RDU ALREADY HAS A HEAT INDEX OF 98.                            
.RDU...HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.                   
HARTFIELD                                                                       
********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 15, 1999 AT 900 AM *****************           
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION(SFD) BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)           
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID      RDUSFDRDU       RDUAFDRAH                        
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID      FXUS72 KRDU     FXUS62 KRAH                      
********************************************************************            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 051402  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1001 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
LEE SIDE TROF SHOWING UP NICELY THIS MORNING WEST OF A RALEIGH TO               
CHARLOTTE LINE. HIGHEST PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING                    
HAS DRIFTED WEST TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA/NORTHEAST ALABAMA. RIDGE                  
STRENGTHENS ALOFT BUT SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THROUGH AFTERNOON            
LEAVING FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY. MEANTIME WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH ALONG THIS PERIPHERY AND INTO FORECAST                   
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                           
LOOPING MOSITURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THE LEE            
SIDE TROF AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD MIGRATING SHORT WAVE OFF            
OF VIRGINIA CAPES. RUC INDICATES THESE PHASE INTO ONE AREA WITH ILM             
FORECAST AREA JUST BARELY ON SOUTHEAST EDGE.                                    
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY...DEEPENS DURING THE                   
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IMPRESSIVE WITH LIS OF -4 AND CAPES                      
OF AROUND 2500.                                                                 
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BETTER POSSIBILITY NORTH AND            
WEST OF FORECAST AREA...NONETHELESS A LOW POP IS WARRANTED AND WILL             
LEAVE FORECAST AS IS AS SEA BREEZE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS SOME                  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.                                        
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF MID AND UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON (SOUNDING AT           
CHS 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THROUGH 850 MB) WITH BEACHES ABOUT 10                 
DEGREES COOLER. DEWPOINTS IN LOWER 70S. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 AWAY            
FROM THE WATER. WILL NOT HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE                
(ALTHOUGH THRESHOLD MET) GIVEN DURATION CONSIDERATION. NOWCAST WILL             
BE ISSUED BEFORE NOON AS YESTERDAY.                                             
CWF: WINDS JUST OFF THE COAST BLOWING AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEAS                 
OF 5 FT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
WILL KEEP 15 TO 20 KTS ACROSS NORTH PORTION AND 10 TO 15 KTS                    
SOUTH. SEAS SHOULD STAY NEAR THE 5 FOOT MARK. WIDELY SCATTERED                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.                
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NEXT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.               
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
DIGIORGI                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 051343  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1020 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN             
NEXT 12-24HRS AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF STRONG                     
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD GREAT LAKES.  RIDGETOP CONVECTION                
SHOULD BEGIN A BIT EARLIER THAN ON SUN.  RUC BRINGS A WEAK PV MAX               
OVER MOUNTAINS LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT.                  
FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH (14.5K FT) BUT A SMALL THREAT OF             
STRONG WIND IS PRESENT.  CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CHANCE POPS             
AND SEE NOT REASON TO MESS WITH THOSE.  TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO               
TROUBLE REACHING 90S.  HEAT INDEX VALUES PROGGED TO APPROACH 105                
THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT EXPECT WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGH LEVELS LONG             
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY.                          DELGADO             
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 051353  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
730 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
KGSP RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ERN TN...DRIFTING S OVER THE NC          
BORDER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 09Z RUC DEVELOPS PRECIP IN THE               
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE RIGHT IDEA. WILL               
UPDATE THE MOUNTAIN ZONES TO REMOVE THE AFTERNOON WORDING AND GO WITH           
THE SCATTERED PRECIP ALL DAY.                                                   
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MOORE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 050759  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
655 AM EDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER E TN VALLEY. MESOETA               
AND RUC DEPICT SCT CONVECTION DURING FIRST PD. WILL UPDATE FIRST                
PERIOD TO ADD 30 POPS TN ZONES.                                                 
SON                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 050855  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1047 AM CDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                      
ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT FCST WILL BE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS               
ACROSS ALL ZONES. RUC IN SUPPORT OF FWC SPEEDS SO 10 TO 15 WILL COVER           
IT. OTHERWISE...700MB TEMPS OF AROUND 10C SUPPORTS CURRENT POPS AS              
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE AREA.                   
AFTERNOON CAP TO BECOME MINIMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST SO SLIGHTLY           
HIGHER POPS OVER THESE ZONES IS LOOKING GOOD.                                   
21                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 051537 AMD  tx                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
229 PM MDT MON JUL 5 1999                                                       
ATTM SFC COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA WITH LOW LVL             
CLOUDINESS IN THE NW. THE FRONT SHUD CONT ITS VERY SLOW SOUTHEAST               
MOVEMENT TONIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS ALL THE CWA BY MORNING. BEFORE IT              
DOES HLC CURRENT TMP IS NEARING THE CENTURY MARK WITH DEW POINTS                
NEAR 70 THIS AFTN. THE LATEST LAMP DATA HAS THE EASTERN FA WITH CAPES           
APPROACHING 4000J AND FORECASTED LIS WERE MINUS SIX OVR THIS AREA.              
7H/MIXR INCREASES TO NINE G/KG LATE THIS AFTN AND WITH THE CONT SLOW            
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT TSRA SHUD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTN WITH            
THE BETTER CHANCES OVR THE E/S FA INTO TONIGHT.                                 
THE NGM DIDNT PERFORM VERY WELL YESTERDAY AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE              
ETA/AVN SOLN ALTHOUGH THE AVN MIGHT BE SOMEWHAT HI ON THE MOISTR                
AT THE MOMENT.                                                                  
THE LATEST RUC SHOWED MID LVL MOISTR OVR THE E/S CWA WITH A 5H/VORT             
TROUGH OVR THIS SAME AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. TSCTS ACROS           
GLD SHOW GOOD OMEGA VALUES AROUND 06Z AND THE THE QPF GRAPHIC SHOWS             
BETTER THAN HALF AN INCH OVR THE E FA. SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS WERE              
ACROS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT                   
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. IN             
ADDITION...COOLR TMPS SHUD PREVAIL TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EDGES SOUTH             
OF THE CWA BY MORNING WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. THE CLOUDS               
SHUD LINGER DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS           
ITS RETREAT NORTWARD BY AFTN. THE AVN KEEPS THE FA IN QUITE A BIT OF            
MID LVL MOISTR DURING THE DAY AND IF THIS IS THE CASE AFTN TMPS SHUD            
REMAIN MUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. BUT AS SFC WINDS VEER MORE               
FROM THE SE BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM           
THE CWA...THE FA SHUD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTN.                           
THE EXTENDED HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS              
BY MIDWEEK AND EXPECT AFTN TEMPS WED TO RISE INTO THE 90S ONCE                  
AGAIN. BUT STILL A VORT LOBE REMAINS OVR SE COLORADO THEREFORE WILL             
KEEP THE MENTION OF POPS. A DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CWA                   
AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND AFTN TMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF                  
DEGREES COOLR. THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHUD MOVE              
ACROS THE FA FRIDAY WITH COOLR AFTN TMPS AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE                 
SYSTEM AND A 5H/RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THRU THE             
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.                                                       
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
VPAPOL                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KICT 052018  ks