AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1119 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
REMNANT LIGHT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS              
OF SRN KS AT THIS TIME...AS FIRST MCV FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION               
MOVES SLOWLY INTO ERN KS AND WRN MO. QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS WHAT            
EFFECT THIS PRECIP WILL HAVE ON TEMPS AND REDEVELOPMENT CHANCES                 
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.  WILL MAKE INITIAL UPDATE TO              
MAX TEMPS AS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER KEEPS TEMPS ALOT COOLER THAN                
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.                                                             
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER MVC                     
SWIRLING ACROSS SWRN KS AND ANOTHER QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS IN CEN                 
CO. THE HAVILAND PROFILER PICKS UP ON THIS SWIRL NICELY. SHORT                  
RANGE MODELS NOT HANDLING THE SWRN KS MCV VERY WELL...WITH THE RUC              
KEEPING THIS MCV RATHER STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WRF/NAM               
DOESNT PICK UP ON THIS AT ALL. GENERAL TREND IS TO CLEAR OUT SOME               
OF THE CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RECOVERY EXPECTED              
BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF RECOVERY AND                         
REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE OVER CEN AND SRN KS KS AS THE                       
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MCV MAKES SLOW PROGRESS FURTHER EAST...WITH                
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WELCOME SHRA/TSRA               
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THE TSRA WILL BE              
TONIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH HIGHEST                   
AMOUNTS IN SRN/SERN KS.                                                         
KETCHAM                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TODAY:                                                                          
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AGAIN TODAY. WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW...TOUGH TO                
KNOW WHICH WAY MCV WILL MEANDER. EXPECT SOME REMNANTS MAY FESTER                
WELL INTO THE MORNING ON DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING                  
COLD POOL...POSSIBLY DRIBBLING PAST 1800 UTC ALONG OK                           
BORDER/SOUTHEAST KS. MEANWHILE...DECENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM/TROUGH                
MOVING THROUGH WY...WHICH ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERPLAYING.                   
NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BEST LINE ON THE ASSOCIATED                  
UPPER TROUGH...BUT NOT SURE ITS DIVING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM INTO               
COLORADO IS CORRECT. AT ANY RATE...THIS SHOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE LIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN                    
SECTIONS AND REST OF AREA TONIGHT. WITH GOOD RECOVERY EXPECTED IN               
FAR NORTH...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SURPASSED                    
LEADING TO ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS. ONCE AGAIN...IF STORMS               
FIRE IN AREAS WHICH RECOVER WELL...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND                        
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY ALLOW 50MPH GUSTS ON STORM COLLAPSE THIS                 
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.                                 
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LEAST                     
PRECIPITATION OCCURRED AND INSOLATION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. CLOUDS               
MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS.                             
NOTE...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS...OPTED TO HAVE               
ZONE FORCAST PRODUCT FORMATTER INCLUDE GRIDS PRIOR TO 7AM START OF              
VERIFICATION PERIOD...SO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION NUMBERS IN                
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT WILL BE HIGHER THAN NUMBERS IN THE REST OF                
THE CODED TEXT PRODUCTS WHICH VERIFY 7AM-7PM.                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
DECENT CHANCE AT MORE PRECIPITATION...COULD DEVELOP SURFACE BASED               
AROUND 0000 UTC WITH HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON             
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...MOVE IN FROM NORTH OR                   
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF 850MB BOUNDARY AND UPPER               
TROUGH. WILL KEEP HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE               
SOUTH WHERE CHANCES OF ONE OF THESE OUTCOMES OCCURRING IS HIGHEST.              
FRI:                                                                            
STILL SOME CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO THE                           
MORNING...PRIMARY EAST OF I-35. GOOD RECOVERY ANTICIPATED MOST                  
LOCATIONS AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT..ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN                  
SECTIONS. HEAT/HUMIDITY MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA IN                     
CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL HIGHLIGHT IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                 
SAT-MON:                                                                        
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING HOT FORECAST AS CURSORY LOOK AT NEW DATA                
GENERALLY CONFIRMS GOING FORECAST. DID TWEAK SEVERAL GRIDS TO                   
BETTER MATCH CLIMATOLOGY TRENDS AND CONSENSUS. -HOWERTON                        
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  98  75 /  30  30  10  10                                
HUTCHINSON      97  74 100  74 /  20  30  10   5                                
NEWTON          97  75 100  75 /  30  30  10  10                                
ELDORADO        97  75  99  74 /  30  30  10  10                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   97  75  97  75 /  40  30  20  10                                
RUSSELL         99  72 104  72 /  20  20  10   5                                
GREAT BEND      99  73 104  72 /  20  20  10   5                                
SALINA          99  74 102  75 /  20  20  10   5                                
MCPHERSON       97  74 101  75 /  20  30  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     93  74  92  73 /  50  30  20  10                                
CHANUTE         94  73  94  73 /  30  30  20  10                                
IOLA            94  73  95  73 /  30  30  20  10                                
PARSONS-KPPF    93  74  93  73 /  40  30  20  10                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
520 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.MARINE UPDATE...                                                               
UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS AND ISSUE A               
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY UNTIL 6 AM. SEVERAL                 
OBSERVING SITES ALONG THE WATER INDICATE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT             
RANGE. MOREOVER...12Z NAM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A                  
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH MUCH OF THE 30KT WINDS                  
MIXING DOWN DUE TO 82F WATER SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WILL               
TAKE A LOOK AT THE OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z NAM/GFS/RUC AND ADJUST THE              
FORECAST AS NEEDED THIS EVENING.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY/...                                                 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY                 
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION...CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO                   
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE. EXPECT THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO            
BE ACROSS NRN MD OVER THE NEXT FOUR TO SIX HOURS. THE NAM IS                    
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A MCS OVER WRN AND CNTRL PA OVERNIGHT.                 
ON FRIDAY...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH THE MAIN UPPER                
TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS                   
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY /CAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ AND             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CENTRAL PA CONVECTION...SHOULD BRING                
ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
SUMMER TIME PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS                      
WESTERLIES REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH WITH NO PENETRATION OF ANY                   
FRONTS. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE WRN STATES WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY               
EWD RESULTING IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BLO CLIMO POPS.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT AN INCREASING AREA OF CONVECTION TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE AREA             
THIS EVENING. INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CONDITIONS              
TO COVER THE CONVECTION.  EXPECT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BETWEEN 09Z AND              
14Z TONIGHT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MARINE UPDATE...ROGOWSKI                                                        
SHORT TERM...TEW                                                                
LONG TERM...ROSA                                                                
AVIATION...TEW                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND ANY SVR POTENTIAL.                 
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW ACRS THE NRN CONUS. DESPITE A WELL DEFINED SHRTWV MOVING INTO              
WRN UPR MI...ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF ALONG WITH LK BREEZE                      
BOUNDARIES HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER W UPR             
MI. AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE REST OF UPR                    
MI...BUT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY CAPPING WITH                
SUBSTANTIAL 750-600 MB WARM LYR...PER 12Z KGRB SNDG AND AREA TAMDAR             
SNDGS...AND BY LOW LVL MIXING WHICH DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER            
50S. ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS SE OF LK WINNIPEG ALSO SUPPORTED                  
LITTLE MORE THAN AN AREA OF MID HIGH CLOUDS WHILE A MORE VIGOROUS               
SHRTWV AND SFC LOW WERE MOVING FROM SASK INTO WRN MANITOBA.                     
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THE              
CAP...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE OVER THE W HLF OF UPR MI             
THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE VALUES ONLY NEAR 1K J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR OF               
20-25 KT...AND FREEZING LVL NEAR 14K FT AND WET BULB ZERO NEAR 10.5K            
FT...MAINLY SMALL HAIL WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER TSTMS.               
LATER TONIGHT...AS THE MANITOBA SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVE INTO WRN                
ONTARIO...THE RESULTING WAA PATTERN AND BAND OF 310K ISENTROPIC LIFT            
MAY SUPPORT AREA OF SHRA AND SOME TSTMS THAT COULD BRUSH WRN LK                 
SUPERIOR AND W UPR MI AFT 06Z AND LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING.                  
FRI AND FRI NIGHT...MORE SUBSTANTIAL MDL DIFFERENCES EMERGE AS THE              
NAM IS FASTER IN BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH LK SUPERIOR AND UPR MI AND            
PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER S FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH                 
HEIGHTS AND BUILDING RDG INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY...A COMPROMISE                  
CLOSER TO THE GFS WAS PREFERRED. LOW LVL CONV ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING BOOSTING CAPES TO 1.5-2.0K J/KG (GIVEN              
TEMPS NEAR 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S) SUPPORTS AT LEAST                  
CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER INTERIOR WEST UPR MI. 0-6KM SHEAR                
INTO THE 35-40 KT RANGE MAY SUPPORT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER             
TO NEAR SVR STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLD LARGE OR            
DAMAGING WINDS...PER SPC SLGT RISK. ANY TSTM CLUSTERS WOULD LIKELY              
SAG S INTO LK MI/WI OVERNIGHT WITH TSTM OUTFLOW HELPING TO PUSH                 
ALONG THE FRONT.                                                                
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THE SFC-H8 FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN CLOSE                     
ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO UPR MI SO THAT AS SHRTWVS AROUND THE PERIPHERY              
OF THE RDG MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT             
FOR SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...MAINLY NRLY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL SAT                  
KEEPING TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 70S NORTH TOE LOWER             
AND MID 80S OVER THE SOUTH. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE                 
POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TIMING/POSITION OF ANY SHRTWVS AND BOOSTS             
TO THE 850 L WSW LLJ INFLOW...SO THAT ONLY 30 POPS WERE MENTIONED.              
SUN-THU...AS HGT FALLS MOVE INTO THE PAC NW EARLY IN THE                        
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM RDGING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES WILL              
BRING A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR TOWARD THE AREA. AGAIN...UPR MI WILL             
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE EDGE OF THE CAP AND FRONTAL BNDRY FOR A              
THREAT OF MCSS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF GFS/ECMWF                 
VERIFY WITH H8 TEMPS TO AROUND 25C...TEMPS WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE              
90S IF SHRA/TSRA DO NOT DEVELOP OR CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE            
GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER THAN USUAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF            
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TUE WHICH WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA THREAT GOING             
TIL DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FOR WED/THU.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
620 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTION IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE                    
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH KANSAS             
FED THE ACTIVITY AND HELPED ORGANIZE IT INTO A MCV. TRAJECTORY OF               
THE MCV WILL CARRY IT THROUGH EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL              
MISSOURI DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ADDED LIKELY POPS TO THE SOUTHERN            
EDGE OF THE CWA AS A RESULT. A BAND OR TWO OF SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE IT             
AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTH SIDE OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO...BUT FEEL                  
ANYTHING FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PLEASANT HILL OFFICE WOULD BE BEST              
HANDLED WITH A SHORT TERM  FORECAST.                                            
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
357 AM...                                                                       
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE FINALLY BEAT DOWN OUR GREAT BASIN HIGH TO             
THE EXTENT THAT IT HAS RETROGRADED INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS HAS            
ALLOWED A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND                 
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN                    
MISSOURI. THE FRONTS PROGRESS HAS BEEN STALLED THANKS TO THE RETURN             
FLOW INDUCED BY A GULF COAST ANTI-CYCLONE. DEEP LAYER GULF MOISTURE             
RETURN...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE INDUCED BY THIS PATTERN...HAS BEEN             
INHIBITED BY A WEAK TROPICAL LOW THAT MOVED INLAND ON THE WEST SIDE             
OF THE GULF COAST HIGH. STILL...SURFACE DEW POINTS ALONG THE STALLED            
FRONT HAVE POOLED NICELY...MAKING IT INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE NORTHER            
HALF OF THE CWA.                                                                
FOR THE POST SUNRISE HOURS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ALONG THE               
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION            
HAS BEEN RATHER CONFUSED WITH STORMS ENCIRCLING THE CWA. 00Z/27                 
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW A TONGUE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ACROSS                   
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING LOW LEVEL JET            
HAS BEGUN TO TRIGGER CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE. WILL              
KEEP SOME BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                
EDGE OF THE CWA FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. REST OF THE FORECAST              
AREA...LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM PAOLA KANSAS TO HIGGINSVILLE              
AND KIRKSVILLE...LOOKED TO A BIT MORE CAPPED WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL              
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.                                                          
TONIGHT WILL SEE THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVE THROUGH THE              
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS                  
SHOULD HELP CAP OFF CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND                
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI FROM KANSAS CITY NORTH. LEFT CHANCE                       
THUNDERSTORM POPS IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI              
AND AREAS EAST FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WITH THE PVA ALONG AND AHEAD              
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.                                                             
TEMPERATURES WISE...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A CATEGORY OR MORE LOWER              
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLY            
MORNING CONVECTION AND MCV IN KANSAS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER H8                   
TEMPS...CONSPIRE TOGETHER. KICKED TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO               
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL                  
PLAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY SUNDAY AS HOT HUMID                    
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.                                                             
CUTTER                                                                          
950 PM...                                                                       
SOME MINOR REVISIONS TO TONIGHT FORECAST PERIOD. WILL LIMIT MENTION             
OF STORMS TO AREAS FROM SURFACE BOUNDARY...SOUTHWARD...WHICH MAINLY             
RUNS FROM AROUND KANSAS CITY..TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE. MID LEVEL SHORT               
WAVE SHOWING UP ON PROFILER DATA IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND MODELS               
HAVE THIS WAVE SLIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.            
SATELLITE SHOWS MOISTURE AXIS RUNNING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF                   
SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  SURFACE             
CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK ALONG THE FRONT...SO THINK DEVELOPMENT WILL            
REMAIN ISOLATED THE REST OF THE NIGHT.                                          
FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND                 
SURFACE FRONT...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE                     
70S...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...SO WILL ADD              
FOG TO GRIDDED FORECASTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                        
PC                                                                              
330 PM...                                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOMINATE RIDGE             
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.  THIS FEATURE ALLOW FOR              
THE CONTINUANCE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THE MIDWEST HAS BEEN              
UNDER FOR THE PAST WEEK.  EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW PATTERN ARE A SERIES            
OF PESKY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES...WHICH HAVE MADE SHORT TERM                      
FORECASTING TRICKY AS OF LATE.  CLOSER TO HOME...A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY            
CONTINUED TO SAG ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND                  
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.  I HAVE BEEN WATCHING A WEAK MESO LOW FORM OVER              
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF MO THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  AS A                 
RESULT...A SOMEWHAT HEALTHY CU FIELD HAS BUILT UP.                              
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH FORMING              
PRECIP IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF CONVERGENCE OVER SW IOWA AND NE                   
MISSOURI.  RUC HAS BEEN MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS AREA OF                        
PRECIP...WITH A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE COOLER LOW-LEVEL                   
OUTFLOW AIR FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS.  A FEW LIMITING FACTORS DO                  
EXIST HOWEVER.  MODELS HAVE OVERESTIMATED THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO             
WORK WITH...PLUS BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL HELP TO CAP THE                       
ENVIRONMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO               
GET FIRED UP...0-6KM SHEAR ~25 KNOTS...CAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...POINT              
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF PULSE SEVERE WEATHER WITH WIND AND HAIL THE               
PRIMARY THREATS.                                                                
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK FARTHER SOUTH                  
ACROSS THE CWA. 30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL TRY AND FOCUS ALONG             
THE BOUNDARY...SERVING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED            
NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE SHUNTED OFF             
TO THE EAST...AND NO H850-500 WAVE TO COOL THE MID-LEVELS OFF...HAVE            
MAINTAINED ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MCI TO IRK.                
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LAST REMAINING SHORTWAVE IN THIS NW FLOW                  
PATTERN (CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MONTANA VIA WV IMAGERY) WILL ARRIVE            
TO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THURSDAY. BEST LOW-LEVEL                  
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ONCE AGAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE                
AREA.  WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE                
MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF.  IF THIS FEATURE MOVES FARTHER                
EAST AND AHEAD OF OUR SHORTWAVE FROM THE NW...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL            
BE LIKELY WHICH COULD SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE              
AREA. BOTH FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SILENT POPS OVER THE                  
REMAINING AREAS.                                                                
TEMPERATURE WISE...HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES AT ALL THROUGH THE                
SHORT TERM GRIDS. WITH CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES REMAINING FAIRLY                
UNCERTAIN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNT             
OF CLOUD COVER WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE REACH.  SO HAVE LEFT TEMPS            
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A PRECURSOR TO THE              
LARGE 592DM RIDGE MOVING OUR WAY.                                               
31                                                                              
FOLLOWED THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS                  
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEMBERS WAS VERY GOOD THIS CYCLE. AS THE                    
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN TEXAS MOVES THROUGH THE               
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN SLIDES EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER               
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE IN ITS WAKE             
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING WILL FURTHER INCREASE IN STRENGTH              
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP TROUGHING             
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.                                           
THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE TO A RETURN OF VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS            
TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.              
WITH 5H HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 590DM AND 8H TEMPERATURES IN             
THE +22C TO +26C RANGE...RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE                
CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE CWA STARTING SUNDAY. MODEST             
RETURN FLOW AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS WILL KEEP SURFACE                    
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES...BRINGING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BACK              
ABOVE 105 DEGREES. THIS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF HEAT            
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND MAY                  
REQUIRE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IF THE ABNORMALLY HOT AND HUMID                 
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK.                                                
THE OPERATIONAL GFS DAMPENS THE RIDGE BY MIDWEEK AND ATTEMPTS TO                
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO MISSOURI. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS              
MORE OF AN OUTLIER FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...AND LIKELY BREAKS                
DOWN THE RIDGING TOO FAST. TEMPERED TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS                   
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE HEAT OUT TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE WEEK IN FUTURE UPDATES IF THE RIDGE PERSISTS.                            
21                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE                                                                       
KS...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1030 PM THU JUL 27 2006                                                         
.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT - SAT)...                                                
IT APPEARS THAT WE'LL BE IN A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE             
NIGHT. THUS...WE LOWERED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO 30% FOR MOST OF THE            
AREA...WITH JUST ISOLATED VALUES (20%) IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.                   
THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION IS STILL SLATED TO COME INTO OUR                   
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK (GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 AM). EVEN             
AT THAT...IT SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AT             
FIRST. AS A RESULT...WE STILL RAISE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BACK            
TO 60% TOWARDS SUNRISE FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL NY...BUT KEEP THE              
CHANCES LOWER OVER NORTHEAST PA. SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA (RUC AND GFS             
IN PARTICULAR) INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING ACCOMPANYING              
THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY DECENT. GIVEN THIS AND            
THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY A              
CONCERN. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ONSET OF THE MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL              
IS STILL 6+ HOURS AWAY AT THIS POINT...WE'LL LET THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT            
ASSESS THE OVERALL SITUATION AND DECIDE IF ANY WATCHES ARE NEEDED.              
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE FIRST            
HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FROM BINGHAMTON ON NORTH AND              
WEST. HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN...DIDN'T WANT TO FINE-TUNE THINGS TOO                
MUCH AT THIS POINT AND WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE SUCH                        
DETERMINATIONS.                                                                 
ACTIVITY SHUD TAPER OFF BY ERLY TMRW EVNG, WITH DRY CONDITIONS XPCTD            
FRI NGT. SAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT DAY, BUT NXT S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE              
WNW FLOW WILL APPRCH LATE WITH THE PSBLTY OF SOME LATE DAY STORMS               
ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND WRN MOHAWK VLY. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND BACK               
INTO THE U80S MOST AREAS, WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE HUMID                      
CONDITIONS.  -MJ/BMW                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (27/18Z TO 28/18Z)...                                                 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR               
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT GRADUALLY CHANGING TO MVFR VSBYS IN BR AND HZ              
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AFTER 09Z ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST... BRINING              
AREAS OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                     
NORTHWEST (ITH, ELM AND SYR) AFTER 09Z... AND TO THE SOUTHEAST (BGM,            
AVP) AFTER 12Z. EXPECT CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE               
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...                                                 
WITH HPC'S PREFERNCE OF A ECW/ENSEMBLE SOLUTION, WE STAYED CLOSE TO             
THEIR GUIDANCE. EXPECTATION OF MEANDERING FNTL BNDRY AND S/WV'S                 
WHICH COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION AT ANY TIME. GFS INDICATES STRONGER              
RIDGING EARLY NXT WEEK WHICH MAY GIVE US A BREAK FROM POTNL                     
CONVECTION SPCLY ON TUES/WED, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE OUT TSRA ON THESE            
DAYS. SO SLGT CHC/LOW CHC POPS THRU THE XTNDD FCST, WITH MDLS                   
SUGGESTING A STRONGER S/WV AND ASSCD CDFNT MOVG THRU NXT THURSDAY.              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1248 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE IS FINALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED...BUT A                    
BROKEN LINE OF WEAK CONVECTION IS PUSHING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE                 
IAG FRONTIER. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM THIS AREA OF WX IS NOT                   
EXPECTED IN THE BUF METRO AREA...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS              
IT PROGRESSES ACROSS IAG AND ORELANS COUNTIES WHERE CAPES OF 1500-              
2000 J/KG ARE IN PLACE.                                                         
OF MORE CONCERN IS THE CONVECTION FIRING UP OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO              
AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AND WILL               
LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY THE FINGER                
LAKES REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION                
HAS DESTABILIZED TO THE POINT WHERE SBCAPES ARE AVG 1500-2000 J/KG              
AND LI-S ARE IN THE VCNTY OF -4. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS                   
UPDATE...PW'S OF 1.5 TO 1.75 (SFC DEW POINTS NR 70) AND LOW MBE                 
VECTOR SPEEDS WILL PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING                        
DOWNPOURS. RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS WILL ALSO PRESENT THE CHANCE               
FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.                                                     
HAIL IS PROBABLY THE LEAST OF OUR TRW CONCERNS AS THE FREEZING                  
LEVEL IS UP OVER 15K FT. IF THE RUC/NAM12 POINT SOUNDINGS VERIFY                
THOUGH...CAPES COULD EXCEED 3000 J/KG...WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED TO                
PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN PEA-SIZED HAIL.                                      
IN ANY CASE...HAVE UPPED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND                      
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES TO LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 1042 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/                                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
JUST ANOTHER IN A LONG STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND STEAMY DAYS                     
UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROVE TO BE MORE ACTIVE                  
THAN YESTERDAY.                                                                 
WHILE THERE ARE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN                  
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS EAST HAVE                   
RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN. THIS HAS COOKED THE MORNING AIR AND HAVE                
BOOSTED EARLY DAY CAPE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.                       
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE FULLY EXPECT SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG                  
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.                 
ANY TRIGGERS? A FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE ERIE BREEZE SHOULD BE              
IN PLACE BY LUNCHTIME...AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY               
AND DRIFT EAST FORM THE SOUTHERN TIER...CROSSING THE GENESEE                    
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE THE LAKE BREEZ              
BREEZE OFF LK ERIE SHOULD 'PROTECT' MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND                
SO I HAVE REMOVED STIORMS FROM THAT AREA.                                       
THIS MORNINGS KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS THAT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE              
WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. MOST                   
SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THAT...EVEN IN THE WEST WHERE SKY COVER              
HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.                                                         
AVGED POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12/RUC INDICATE MID                  
AFTERNOON CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...BUT WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK               
WITH. WOULD NEED TO UTILIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF 2500-3000 J/KG                
CAPE TO GIVE ANY CONCERN FOR HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS WAY UP               
OVER 15K FT.                                                                    
AS FAR AS HEVAY RAIN...PCPN WATER LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO                 
1.75 WITH SFC DEW POINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.                            
THIS...COMBINED WITH MBE VECTOR SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL RAISE                
THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINMENT               
FOR TRUE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IS THE FACT THAT MID LEVELS ARE                   
STILL FAIRLY DRY.                                                               
THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE CHARACTERIZED BY A                  
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (LOW SHEAR) WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL               
AND SOMEWHAT DRY MID LEVEL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS                 
WILL BE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...            
AND PROBABLY A HIGHER AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (ALSO HIGHER PERCENTAGE               
OF POS STRIKES).                                                                
RSH                                                                             
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
/ISSUED 235 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECASTS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE             
CROSSING THE REGION ATTM IS PUSHING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                  
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS             
OH/PA.                                                                          
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                
HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT                  
LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/              
TSTMS IN THEIR WAKE...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME EXPECT RAINFREE                  
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM                      
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG THIS AFTN WOULD SUPPORT           
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT                           
ANTICIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS                 
AFTN. IN ADDITION...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM IN THE THE JUICY                        
ATMOSPHERE...PWS OF 1.6-1.8...WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.                                                  
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION            
WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE IS                 
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...              
BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.              
WITH THE POSITION AND EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE...             
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL NOT                   
AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD               
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS.                     
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN THE              
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                                             
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION DURING THE            
PERIOD. THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF                      
VARIABILITY IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECAST GIVING A LOW CONFIDENCE             
TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.                                                  
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY              
IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THE BUILDING OF THE                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF             
THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR             
ANY CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GFS DOES SUGGEST A               
WEAK UPPER WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS NORTHEAST                
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT). CAPPING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY              
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL                  
SUGGEST A DRY DAY. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH LESS            
CAPPING AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD               
BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AS OF 05Z              
WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER 12-13Z.            
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE             
REGION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WITH A GENERAL 2-3 HOUR                  
PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. FLYING              
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z...WITH MOST                
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWER VSBYS IN SHRA/HAZE/LIGHT FOG. THAT                    
SAID...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-LEVEL CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS                  
MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE              
VALLEY WESTWARD.                                                                
DURING THE DAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CLOUD BASES RISE WITH                  
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...WITH AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES                       
(KBUF/KIAG/KART) LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AS LAKE SHADOWS DEVELOP.                 
ELSEWHERE...A BROKEN FIELD OF CU IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL                    
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVAILING                   
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE.              
TONIGHT...THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA            
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE                 
STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND FORWARD               
SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH                    
CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF LIKELY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. FOR              
THIS REASON...WILL JUST INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH A CB               
QUALIFIER FOR NOW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1042 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
JUST ANOTHER IN A LONG STRETCH OF VERY WARM AND STEAMY DAYS                     
UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAY PROVE TO BE MORE ACTIVE                  
THAN YESTERDAY.                                                                 
WHILE THERE ARE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN                  
COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS EAST HAVE                   
RECEIVED PLENTY OF SUN. THIS HAS COOKED THE MORNING AIR AND HAVE                
BOOSTED EARLY DAY CAPE SBCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.                       
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WE FULLY EXPECT SBCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG                  
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.                 
ANY TRIGGERS? A FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED LAKE ERIE BREEZE SHOULD BE              
IN PLACE BY LUNCHTIME...AND STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY               
AND DRIFT EAST FORM THE SOUTHERN TIER...CROSSING THE GENESEE                    
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION AFTER 18Z. MEANWHILE THE LAKE BREEZ              
BREEZE OFF LK ERIE SHOULD 'PROTECT' MUCH OF THE IAG FRONTIER AND                
SO I HAVE REMOVED STIORMS FROM THAT AREA.                                       
THIS MORNINGS KBUF SOUNDING SHOWS THAT OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE              
WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS SHORTWAVE ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S. MOST                   
SITES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THAT...EVEN IN THE WEST WHERE SKY COVER              
HAS BEEN MORE ABUNDANT.                                                         
AVGED POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12/RUC INDICATE MID                  
AFTERNOON CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG...BUT WITH LITTLE SHEAR TO WORK               
WITH. WOULD NEED TO UTILIZE THE FULL POTENTIAL OF 2500-3000 J/KG                
CAPE TO GIVE ANY CONCERN FOR HAIL AS THE FREEZING LEVEL IS WAY UP               
OVER 15K FT.                                                                    
AS FAR AS HEVAY RAIN...PCPN WATER LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO                 
1.75 WITH SFC DEW POINTS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70.                            
THIS...COMBINED WITH MBE VECTOR SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS WILL RAISE                
THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINMENT               
FOR TRUE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IS THE FACT THAT MID LEVELS ARE                   
STILL FAIRLY DRY.                                                               
THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL THUS BE CHARACTERIZED BY A                  
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (LOW SHEAR) WITH A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL               
AND SOMEWHAT DRY MID LEVEL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS                 
WILL BE SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...            
AND PROBABLY A HIGHER AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING (ALSO HIGHER PERCENTAGE               
OF POS STRIKES).                                                                
RSH                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
/ISSUED 235 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO CURRENT FORECASTS THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE             
CROSSING THE REGION ATTM IS PUSHING A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED                  
TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS             
OH/PA.                                                                          
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND                
HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT                  
LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND KICK OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS/              
TSTMS IN THEIR WAKE...HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME EXPECT RAINFREE                  
CONDITIONS.                                                                     
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM                      
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG THIS AFTN WOULD SUPPORT           
ENHANCED WIND GUSTS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT                           
ANTICIPATED. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THIS                 
AFTN. IN ADDITION...ANY TSTMS THAT FORM IN THE THE JUICY                        
ATMOSPHERE...PWS OF 1.6-1.8...WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE                   
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.                                                  
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID-SECTION            
WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RIDGE IS                 
EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME...              
BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.              
WITH THE POSITION AND EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE...             
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL NOT                   
AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD               
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS.                     
THEREFORE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN THE              
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY DURING             
THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME PERIOD.                                             
TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION DURING THE            
PERIOD. THE MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF                      
VARIABILITY IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECAST GIVING A LOW CONFIDENCE             
TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST.                                                  
IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY              
IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THE BUILDING OF THE                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WOULD EXPECT MOST OF             
THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR             
ANY CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (GFS DOES SUGGEST A               
WEAK UPPER WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING ACROSS NORTHEAST                
NEW YORK MONDAY NIGHT). CAPPING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST ON TUESDAY              
WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA...THEREFORE WILL                  
SUGGEST A DRY DAY. A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY WITH LESS            
CAPPING AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD               
BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AS OF 05Z              
WILL MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...EXITING EASTERN SECTIONS AFTER 12-13Z.            
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE             
REGION AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...WITH A GENERAL 2-3 HOUR                  
PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. FLYING              
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z...WITH MOST                
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWER VSBYS IN SHRA/HAZE/LIGHT FOG. THAT                    
SAID...A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR-LEVEL CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS                  
MORNING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE              
VALLEY WESTWARD.                                                                
DURING THE DAY...WE SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE CLOUD BASES RISE WITH                  
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...WITH AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES                       
(KBUF/KIAG/KART) LIKELY SCATTERING OUT AS LAKE SHADOWS DEVELOP.                 
ELSEWHERE...A BROKEN FIELD OF CU IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL                    
CONVECTION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PREVAILING                   
CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING ON SHOULD BE IN THE VFR RANGE.              
TONIGHT...THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA            
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE                 
STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND FORWARD               
SPEED OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH                    
CONFIDENCE TO PINPOINT A PERIOD OF LIKELY PRECIP AT THIS TIME. FOR              
THIS REASON...WILL JUST INDICATE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION WITH A CB               
QUALIFIER FOR NOW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
951 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...                                              
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO             
REFLECT CURRENT OBS THIS MORNING.  IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT             
TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS TODAY AND TONIGHT.                   
CHANCE OF POPS HOLDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND.  SEA BREEZE            
SHOULD PROPAGATE QUITE A WAYS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHOULD             
BE PRETTY STRONG ALONG THE COAST.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE HAS ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO KEEP WEAK SUBSIDENCE              
OVER THE CWA. THAT SAID...STILL THINK ENOUGH MOISTURE AND                       
INSTABILITY TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE                     
BOUNDARY...AND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA AROUND THE                   
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ONLY A VCTS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.                    
OVERNIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF FOG AGAIN WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR MVFR            
CONDITIONS AFTER 05Z...WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR FROM 09-12Z. WINDS            
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AFTER              
18Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR A GOOD SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. SEA             
LEVEL PRESSURES ARE FORECAST ON THE NAM AND RUC MODELS TO FALL BY AT            
LEAST 2 MB INLAND. WHEN COMBINED WITH A PRE-EXISTING SOUTHERLY FLOW             
AND 12-15 DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS FROM LAND TO SEA...15-20             
KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.            
WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO            
10-15 KT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. SEAS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO BUILD                
PAST THE FORECAST 2-3 FT...BUT THE AVERAGE PERIODS WILL CERTAINLY               
SHORTEN UP WITH A WIND CHOP DEVELOPING.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAN                                                                
AVIATION...HDL                                                                  
MARINE...TRA                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
230 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES.                      
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS MAINLY CONCERNING                    
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND RESULTING BOUNDARY ORIENTATION.                
ALTHOUGH MODELS INITIALIZED CLOSE ON THERMAL FIELDS GFS INITIALIZED             
BETTER WITH WEAKER STRENGTH OF SURFACE FEATURES AND NAM                         
WAY-OVERDOING NEAR TERM QPF. IN ADDITION BASED ON CURRENT NEAR ZONAL            
PATTERN AND RISING HEIGHTS FEEL COLD PUSH ON NAM OVERDONE AS WELL.              
WITH ABOVE THINKING WILL UTILIZE GFS FOR FORECAST.                              
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MB INTO ONTARIO                
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OVER CENTRAL MT WHICH WILL DROP SE AND RIGHT            
NOW TOUGH TO PICKOUT ANY MINOR FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY                   
BETWEEN THE TWO THAT WOULD AFFECT FA. MAIN ENERGY REMAINS NORTH OF              
BORDER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ON WESTERN FA DOORSTEP            
AND WILL CROSS FA THIS EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT ON T POTENTIAL WITH               
BOUNDARY PASSAGE HOWEVER RUC NOT AS BEEFY WITH CAPPING VS GFS SO                
WILL MAINLY SLIGHT POPS TO BE SAFE. COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF                   
BOUNDARY REACHES INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING             
BIG DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD                  
RESEMBLE LAST FEW NIGHTS.                                                       
BIG DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STARTING TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWARD PUSH OF              
COLDER AIR AS STATED ABOVE. NAM DRIVES COLDER AIR SOUTH THROUGH                 
WHILE GFS HOLDS COLDEST AIR ALONG CANADIAN BORDER THAN SHIFTS                   
COLDER AIR EAST. BASED ON CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW AND BUILDING MID                 
LEVEL HEIGHTS AM HAVING A HARD TIME BELIEVING NAM SOLUTION AND WILL             
HOLD WITH WARMER GFS SOLUTION. WILL STILL SEE THERMAL GRADIENT                  
ACROSS FA WITH LOWEST MAX TEMPERATURES ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER.              
AS A RESULT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY LOCATION                 
DIFFERS WITH GFS ALONG ND/SD BORDER AND NAM ALONG SD/NE BORDER.                 
850MB LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30KT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE BULK                 
SHEAR AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES GET QUITE            
WARM OVER SW 1/3 OF FA SO CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORIENTED ALONG                  
FRINGE OF CAP. WITH BOUNDARY ORIENTATION UNCERTAIN WILL MAINTAIN LOW            
POP THREAT ACROSS WHOLE FA.                                                     
HEAT THEN BECOMES MAIN ISSUE REMAINDER OF WEEKEND. 700MB                        
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 12-16C WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP ATMOSPHERE            
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH FA. PNS ISSUED ADDRESSING HEAT                
THREAT.                                                                         
MON THRU THURS...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW              
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SET THE STAGE              
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. JUST WHERE THE LOW SETS UP AND ITS                
RESULTANT MOVEMENT WILL GREATLY AFFECT AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF PRECIP.            
BOTH THE GFS AND DGEX SHOW THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING FROM            
CENTRAL SD INTO SOUTHERN MN THRU TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN               
FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES               
MORE ZONAL. TEMPS WILL HINGE ON FRONTAL POSITIONS...BUT OVERALL THE             
TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES WILL HOLD TRUE.                                   
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER/ANDERSON                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
740 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.AVIATION(00Z-00Z)...                                                           
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NRN INDIANA ARE EXPECTED TO              
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. THE PCPN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD            
AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WRN LAKES MOVES EAST. THE 21Z RUC                    
SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST PCPN MAY NOT REACH CAK/YNG UNTIL AFTER                   
MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD PCPN SPREADING EAST FROM              
TOL/FDY INTO CLE THEN ERI THIS EVENING. WL BRING ALL SITES TO IFR               
OVERNIGHT...THEN RISE BACK TO VFR BY TRMW AFTN BEHIND THE VORT. THE             
BIG THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE THE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH A DEEP            
WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2.0 INCHES.                
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING ALSO LIKELY IN ANY HEAVIER STORM. THE STORMS              
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS HIGHER 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES MOVE            
INTO THE REGION AS THE TROUGH AXIS APPRAOCHES.                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT THRU FRI NGT)...                                              
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ERIE LAKESHORE AT THIS TIME            
WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING WEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS                  
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH             
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES AND 850 MB DEW POINTS IN              
THE MID TEENS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. WITH LAKE ERIE             
WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AS WELL...THIS MAY HELP INCREASE MOISTURE            
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. WITH THIS VERY MOIST               
AIR MASS AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS            
THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED              
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES PER HALF             
HOUR HAVE RECENTLY BEEN MEASURED IN LAKE COUNTY. THESE LOW TOP WARM             
RAIN LOW CENTROID TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE                 
EVENING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4.5 KM IS QUITE HIGH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW            
FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE. CURRENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 0-6            
KM IS FAIRLY WEAK WHICH IS INHIBITING STORM ORGANIZATION BUT                    
LIGHTNING FLASH RATES ARE INCREASING.  BY THIS EVENING THE DEEP                 
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH MAY ALLOW STORMS TO ORGANIZE                
BETTER WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HIGH CATAGORICAL                
RAIN POPS ARE ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE             
REGION EARLY FRIDAY WITH JUST A LINGER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTM IN THE            
MORNING BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE REGION.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT THRU THU)...                                                    
VERY WARM SUMMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF             
NEXT WEAK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE                
EASTERN STATES ACCORDING THE MID RANGE ENSEMBLES OF THE GFS AND THE             
SINGLE RUN THE ECMWF. LATE IN THE WEEK(THU) THE NEARLY ZONAL                    
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO CHANGE AS A WEAK STORT WAVES DIGS SLIGHTLY              
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO               
THE REGION AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS.              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST.  CONVECTION AROUND AND E OF KCLE WILL CONT             
TO MOVE ENE THIS AFT.  BIG QUESTION IS WHEN...WHERE AND IF MORE                 
CONVECTION WILL FIRE TO THE W AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE                      
APPROACHES FROM THE NW.  CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS OVER               
NRN OH AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY HELP LIMIT NEW DEVELOPMENT NEXT                  
COUPLE HOURS.  HOWEVER...DO EXPECT NEW CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER ERN            
IN WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.  IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES FORM IT WILL            
TRACK E ACROSS AND NEAR TAF SITES AFT 21Z.  THUS...MOST SITES WILL              
GET A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS OF TSRA.  STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG FAR             
ENUF S TONIGHT TO CAUSE LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVE.  WILL            
FORECAST MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS MOST AREAS AFT 04Z.                                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY.                                    
.PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REL                                                                
LONG TERM...REL                                                                 
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
903 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH ALONG            
WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO QPF AMOUNTS.  REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND RUC                
ANALYSIS PLACE A DISTINCT WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH               
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER                     
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  FORCING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AXIS ALONG WITH               
FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS JET                 
STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.  REGIONAL                
RADAR DATA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE EXPANDED                    
MARKEDLY WITH PRECIP COVERAGE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.                        
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MEASURED ON KOUN AND KSGF 00Z RAOBS ATTEST            
TO THE MOISTURE QUALITY...WHILE THE WEAK STEERING WINDS AND OBSERVED            
PRECIP RATES NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTEST TO THE PRECIP EFFICIENCY             
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  PLACEMENT OF OVERNIGHT ELEVATED                     
INSTABILITY AXIS WILL KEEP HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE                    
NORTH...AND WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING. SEVERE                 
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WET                 
MICROBURST WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.                                            
UPDATED FORECAST ISSUED AFTER INCLUSION OF 9PM OBSERVATIONS.                    
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18                                                    
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 07                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
340 PM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV REVEALS UPPER WAVE DIGGING INTO MN...WITH STRETCHING TAIL DOWN               
INTO SERN SD. AT THE SFC...WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS CONTINUES TO LAG               
FROM NERN NEBRASKA THRU NW IA THIS AFTN...AND RECENTLY HAVE SEEN                
ISOLD CELLS DEVELOPING JUST S OF KYKN TO E OF KSUX.  NOT QUITE AS               
CLASSIC TONIGHT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF NON SUPERCELL TORNADOES WITH                 
0-3KM CAPE A BIT WEAKER FROM 40-70 J/KG OFF BETTER RUC                          
REPRESENTATION.  WL CONTINUE TO MENTION THREAT FOR ISOLD TO SCT                 
TSRA ACRS FAR SRN CWA. MOVEMENT WL BE FAIRLY SLOW IN ANY CELL.                  
A BIT MORE HOSTILE TO N FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE...SO                
REMOVED MENTION.  OTHER ISSUE TO WATCH WOULD BE DEVELOPMENT LATE                
TONIGHT TO NW ALG DEEPER CONVERGENCE BNDRY...WHICH COULD DIVE MORE              
TO SE THAN EXPECTED AND CLIP NERN CWA.                                          
RISING HEIGHTS WITH A VENGEANCE ON FRIDAY...SO DO NOT EXPECT                    
CONVECTION TO BE AN ISSUE.  OUTSIDE...WAY OUTSIDE...CHANCE THAT TAIL            
OF WK SYSTEM TO NE MAY BE AN ACCAS THREAT TO NERN CWA LTR AFTN/EVNG...          
BUT NOT WORTHY OF MENTION ATTM.  CONVECTION WITHIN MID LVL SHEAR                
AXIS ACRS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW LVL MOISTURE              
TO ADVECT NWRD BELOW THE WARMING TMPS ALFT THRU THE SHORT TERM.                 
12Z NAM AND GFS DO NOT AGREE ON PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT               
INTO SAT MORNING...BUT BECAUSE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH                
PAST RUNS...HAVE MOSTLY AGREED WITH SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK             
THAT GFS GIVES FOR FRONT/SFC LOW. TEMPS SUN MAY BE A LITTLE                     
CONSERVATIVE...BUT FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO EXCEED 100 IN THE                   
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY...FIRE DANGER COULD BE A CONCERN            
SAT AND SUN WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20 KTS AND LOW RH VALUES               
BOTH DAYS.  WL ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY               
AFTERNOON...AND VERY POSSIBLE THAT SIMILAR CONDITIONS WL BE IN PLACE            
ON MONDAY.                                                                      
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...HEAT CONTINUES TO BE DOMINANT AT THE START.             
FRONTAL ZONE CREEPS TOWARD NWRN CWA LT MONDAY...PLACING ESPLY SD CWA            
INTO SW MN IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SURGE. ONE BIG QUESTION WL BE                 
AFFECT OF SUBTROPICAL WAVE WHICH ON SEVERAL MDLS GETS PULLED UP INTO            
WRN PLAINS BY MONDAY.  EVEN IF THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WHICH OCCURRED            
WITH SYSTEM SEVERAL WEEKS AGO...THERE WILL STILL BE POTENTIAL FOR               
ENCROACHMENT OF SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION AS RIDGE SHIFTS EWRD. THREAT             
OF SOME POTENTIALLY THICKER CI AS WELL AS THE HIGH LOW LVL MOISTURE             
CONTENT OF AIR IS ONLY THING KEEPING FROM GOING EVEN HIGHER ON                  
MONDAY FOR TMPS...ESPLY ERN CWA. COOLEST AIRMASS LOW LVLS IS THRU               
SERN CWA...AND LTST GFS IS SHOWING THAT MID LVLS MIGHT REMAIN COOL              
ENOUGH TO SCARE UP A TROPICAL SHRA...AT A MINIMUM A DECENT CU FIELD.            
ENS MEAN TMPS ARE 3-5F WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL FOR TUE MAXES IN SERN            
HALF OF CWA SET...WHICH FOLLOWS REASONING THAT BNDRY MAY BE A BIT               
TOO QUICK. STATISTICALLY...THIS HAS BEEN A NEARLY INFALLABLE SIGNAL             
THRU THE SUMMER THUSFAR...SO HAVE EVEN GREATER CONFIDENCE RAISING               
SRN CWA TMPS AND INCREASING N TO S GRADIENT.  INTERESTING TO NOTE               
HERE THAT CANADIAN/UK SUGGEST SLOWEST BREAKDOWN/PROGRESSION. EVEN               
ASSUMING THAT RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS JUST A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE...SHOULD             
BE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHC VASTLY IMPROVED BY LTR TUE INTO WED               
TO KNOCK TMPS BACK. WL FIGHT TENDENCY TO HOLD ONTO TOO WARM                     
POSTFRONTAL TMPS ON TUE/WED.  STILL FAIRLY WARM ALFT MON NIGHT...BUT            
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND START TO COOLING SEEMS TO FAVOR POP GRADIENT            
WITH HIGHEST ACRS NRN/NWRN AREAS WITH LITTLE CHANCE SE.  WAVE                   
PASSING TO N TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND THERMAL RIBBON SETTLING OVR                 
CWA...PROSPECT FOR DEEPER DYNAMICAL INTERACTION WITH VERY MOIST AND             
UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOOKS FAVORABLE.  TAKING SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF RRQ             
OF JET SEEMS TO BE IS A LATER TUE AFTN THRU EARLY WED EVENT...SO WL             
BOOST MAIN POPS THRU THAT WINDOW...KEEPING POPS GOING SOMEWHAT HIER             
WED ACRS SERN 1/3 OF CWA. UNLESS ACTION REALLY PUSHES OFF AND STRONG            
DRY PUSH WHICH IS NOT AT ALL ALONG CURRENT REASONING...ALL THIS                 
ACTION SHUD HELP PUSH BNDRY WELL S BY LTR WED/EARLY THU ENDING PCPN             
THREAT...WITH MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS DRIVEN SWRD BY EXITING JET THU.           
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND                
      AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SDZ255.                          
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CHAPMAN/LAFLIN                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
940 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...AFTER LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT...THIS                    
MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING IS COMING IN A LITTLE LESS MOIST BUT STILL                
UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF AROUND 1.90 INCHES WITH A CAPE OF AROUND                
4700 J/KG.  THE CURRENT RUC GUIDANCE KEEPS A POCKET OF DECENT 5H                
VORTICITY POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWA INTO              
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH BETTER                 
DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP FIRE OFF SOME MORE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                  
EVENING CONVECTION.  SO WILL MAINTAIN A CHC MENTION OF CONVECTION               
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.  THE MAV AND MET               
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME DISAGREEMENT FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND THE                  
REGION TODAY.  MET NUMBERS ARE GOING A BIT COOLER IN COMPARISON TO              
THE MAV GUIDANCE.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGHER POPS INDICATED              
IN THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE MET GUIDANCE.  CONSIDERING THAT THE MAV              
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT...              
WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET NUMBERS.  HAVE UPDATED THE              
MORNING ZFP TO ADJUST THE FIRST PERIOD WORDING A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE            
THE REST OF THE CURRENT ZFP WORDING LOOKS OK AT THE MOMENT.                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY020 REPORTED SSE WINDS AROUND 20 KTS AND SEAS NEAR 7              
FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND REMAIN STRONG                  
THROUGH THIS EVENING SO...WILL RAISE FLAGS OVER THE LAGUNA MADRE AND            
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY. PRESSURE            
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN              
GULF ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET. MODERATE SOUTHEAST               
WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SHRA OVER NRN AND WRN ZONES PRODUCING IFR TO MVFR                   
CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT             
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY SSE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO CIGS AROUND              
FL030.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SCA GMZ130-132-135 15Z THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.                                      
SCA GMZ150-155-170-175 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...55                                                            
MESO...VEGA                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1022 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN SAT/RADAR/TEMPS.                       
SYNOPTIC/SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK MID LVL TROUGH TRAVERSING                 
CENTRAL/ERN ZONES ATTM WITH SOME LIGHT -SHRA ACTIVITY NORTH AND BAND            
OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN                    
YESTERDAY DUE TO THESE CLOUDS...AND HAVE BROADENED AND NUDGED TEMPS             
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ACCORDINGLY. BEST FORCING TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST             
OF THIS LINE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN VT...AND THEN ACROSS NW ZONES             
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE. IT IS                
ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA WHERE BEST FORCING/SHEAR/LIFT APPEAR TO PLAY            
ROLE IN POSSBL STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NONETHELESS...WITH                 
GENERAL NVA AFFECTING MUCH OF AREA TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER POPS             
SLIGHTLY ALL AREAS. OTHER THAN INTRODUCING NEW 12Z WIND GUIDANCE FOR            
TODAY...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 255 AM EDT THU JUL 27 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS SRN CANADA TODAY AS IT/S ASSOCIATED CF                
MOVES ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION. SFC TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA ON                
FRI/FRI NITE. CF TO DROP DOWN ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION AND SRN                 
CANADA ON FRI NITE/SAT.                                                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
00-01Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M70S TO AROUND 90F TODAY            
WITH S-SW SFC WINDS AT AROUND 10G20KTS. RUC SHOWS PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS            
THE FA TODAY WITH SCT CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF TODAY.                             
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY THRU FRI NITE...WITH WK              
WAA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA               
LATER TONITE AND ON SAT AFTERNOON. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA           
TODAY AND TONITE...WITH BETTER LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE FA ON FRI AND              
EARLY FRI NITE...AND SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ACRS THE NRN TIER ZONES ON               
SAT. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA DURING THE NEXT THREE             
AFTERNOONS. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA LATE TONITE AND ON FRI           
AND SAT. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.8-1.8" ACRS MUCH OF THE             
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. CAPES ACRS THE FA APPEAR TO BE BLW 1000 J/KG                 
TONITE...BLW 2000 J/KG ON FRI...BLW 800 J/KG ON FRI NITE...AND BLW              
1500 J/KG ON SAT.                                                               
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME -SHRA OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FA ATTM.              
ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA TODAY APPEARS TO BE MODERATELY SHEARED WITH             
CAPES OF AOB 1000-1500 J/KG AND WET-BULB ZERO HTS AVERAGING AROUND              
11.0 KFT. HI PW VALUES AND SOME DECENT MID-LVL DRY AIR/INSTABILITY              
SHOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM ACRS THE FA TODAY TO POSSIBILITY           
CONTAIN SOME +RA AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE                   
ZFP/GRIDS. WITH EARLY SHRA/CLDS EXPECTED ACRS THE FA TODAY THOUGH...            
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY SPS THOUGH.                                        
HAVE HELD ONTO TO SCT/CHC POPS ACRS MUCH OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD FOR           
ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION. LOOKS LIKE SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACRS           
THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE THRU EARLY ON FRI NITE...THEN AGAIN ON             
SAT. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 80S TODAY AND ON FRI.                               
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST FOR NOW.                                           
WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS AVAILABLE. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS BY                 
330 AM.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
MID LVL S/W AND SFC REFLECTION MVG THRU TDY WITH MID DECK BKN080-120            
AND SOME SCT -SHRA BKN040. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WDLY SCT -TSRA                   
UPSTREAM AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN HIGH OCTANE AIRMASS...XPCT MORE            
-SHRA/-TSRA DVLPMNT...ESP ALG/AHD OF ABV FEATURE IN VT THIS AFTN BUT            
IN RIPE AIRMASS ISOLD/WDLY SCT -TSRA PSBL IN NY AS WELL.                        
ERLY MRNG LIFR/IFR DUE TO FOG/LOW CIGS IMPRVG TO VFR/MVFR WITH HZ AND           
SCT -SHRA ACTVTY THIS MRNG. THIS AFTN...PRIMARILY VFR WITH SOME HAZE            
AND BRF IFR CONDS IN VCNTY OF TSRA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JMG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
..FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                  
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
331 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
TODAY...ABUNDANT AND DEEP MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOL TEMPS IN THE      
H85/H7 LAYER WITH EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW IN THE 0-2KM AGL                      
LAYER...SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...WHICH               
WERE COOLER THAN I EXPECTED...BY SOME 7 TO 10 DEGREES! I CONSIDER               
THIS A PRETTY BIG BUST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTING IN MID-                 
SUMMER. AT ANY RATE...I AM NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT IN THE                        
OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE...ALONG WITH THE NAM12 AND RUC40 MODELS TO               
SUGGEST THAT IT WILL GET ANY WARMER THAN THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH                
OF THE CWA TODAY. AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS IN THE H5/7 LAYER FROM                
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST                      
TODAY. WILL GO WITH 20-25 POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS CAPPING               
WILL BE ESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT. CAN CERTAINLY SEE AN ISOLD STORM              
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER MUCH LIKE LATE LAST                        
EVENING...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATED OVER 2" OF RAIN OVER A SMALL                    
PORTION OF BARBER COUNTY.                                                       
THIS TROPICAL TYPE REGIME WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. H7-8 RH/TEMP            
PROGS FROM THE GFS AND EVEN THE NAM12 SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE HARD              
PRESSED TO GET A WHOLE LOT WARMER THAN TODAY...WE PREVIOUSLY WERE               
CALLING FOR 100-102F OVER THE FCST AREA SATURDAY...BUT AM TRIMMING              
THESE TEMPS BACK INTO THE 94-97F RANGE WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS                
REMAINING LOCKED IN PLACE. IT MAY APPROACH 100 OVER THE FAR                     
NORTHWEST BASED ON H85 THERMAL PROGS BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD                
SEE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S. WILL GO WITH LESS THAN 20 POPS FOR                
THE ENTIRE AREA. -UMSCHEID                                                      
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  92  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10                                           
GCK  92  70  96  70 /  10  10  10  10                                           
EHA  91  68  94  68 /  20  20  10  10                                           
LBL  93  70  95  71 /  20  30  10  10                                           
HYS  93  71  96  73 /  10  10  10  10                                           
P28  92  72  94  75 /  20  30  10  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN25/24                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
255 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ONE OF OUR WEATHER MAKERS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS EASILY SEEN              
ON THE LATEST IR SATELLITE AND 500MB PROFILER DATA. THIS FEATURE IS             
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. THE RUC/GFS INDICATES THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF            
THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW IS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SOME              
RAIN WAS ALREADY CREEPING NORTHEAST INTO THE BOOTHEEL AND WEST KY AT            
MIDNIGHT...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW                  
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH ACTUALLY                 
SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE GIVEN LATEST RADAR/SAT TRENDS. BY 12Z                       
TODAY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A DECENT SWATH OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION              
ACROSS OUR CWA AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE...MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME               
SEMO...SOUTHEAST IL...WEST KY AND SOUTHWEST IN...AS THIS TROUGH                 
MOVES EAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS IN DECENT                     
AGREEMENT THAT THIS SWATH OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE                 
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER             
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE POSITIONED. WILL TRY TO TAPER POPS TO REFLECT                
THIS...BUT STILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...WITH            
CATEGORICAL POPS IN WEST KY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AGAIN...THE BEST               
MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...SO WILL KEEP A             
12 HR POP GOING TODAY AND JUST INDICATE BEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST.            
FOR EARLY TONIGHT (PRIOR TO 06Z)...MODELS DIVERGE A BIT. THE MAIN               
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A            
GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH A               
SMATTERING OF PUNY QPF. AFTER 06Z SAT...BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME TYPE              
OF SFC TROUGH PIVOTING BACK NORTH AT US...WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS               
SOME ACTIVITY. THE GFS IS DEFINITELY MORE ROBUST ON THE QPF ACROSS              
THE SOUTH LATER ON TONIGHT...AS THE NAM SHOWS SOME QPF REACHING OUR             
SOUTHERN BORDER BY 12Z. ALREADY HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS GOING IN                  
TONIGHTS GRIDS...WITH IT TAPERED BEST CHANCES SOUTH. MAY HAVE TO                
BUMP THEM DOWN A TOUCH THOUGH.                                                  
ON SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH             
INTO THE AREA...CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA. WHILE              
BOTH MODELS HAVE THE POSITION OF THIS TROUGH IN SYNC...THE MOISTURE             
AND QPF FIELDS DIFFER. THE NAM HARDLY BRINGS ANY RAIN INTO THE                  
AREA...WHILE THE GFS INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO             
AND FAR WEST KY. WILL TRY TO INDICATE THIS TREND IN SATURDAYS POP               
GRID. PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL            
LEAVE THE 20 POP GOING THERE...EVEN THOUGH THE NAM INDICATES ALL                
PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A HINT OF SOME                  
LINGERING PRECIP BUT IT MAY VERY WELL BE OVERDONE.                              
FOR SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE NAM WOULD INDICATE NO              
RAIN...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND THE SFC HIGH REMAINS             
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS IS SIMILAR IN BUILDING THAT             
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CWA...IT STILL WANTS TO PAINT SOME QPF OVER THE            
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SINCE ITS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR                   
SUNDAY...WILL LEAVE IT IN...BUT DON/T PLAN ON ADDING IT ON MONDAY               
YET.                                                                            
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING INTO THE 90S BY THE WEEKEND AND                
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW H85 TEMPS AT 20 DEG C OR                  
ABOVE. HEAT INDICIES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE                    
STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT            
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
516 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS                  
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH               
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. HIGH                     
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS                  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS STATE ON MONDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                          
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EXTENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY               
TONIGHT. THERE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SVR TSTMS MAINLY                    
ACROSS CNTL & INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. SLGT RISK FROM SPC IS                 
ACROSS GYX/S SRN PORTION OF THE CWA.                                            
USED THE RUC TO START OUT THE MRNG AS IT WAS VERIFYING WELL PER                 
RADAR & SATL IMAGERY & THEN WENT W/THE WRF UP THRUOGH 00Z. FROM                 
00Z TO 12Z...A BLEND OF THE WRF & GFS WAS USED. BEST CHCS FOR STG               
TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM MLT TO BAXTER STATE PARK ON S TO BGR                 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT W/CAPES APCHG 1200 J/KG & TTS HITTING               
NEAR 50. KIS RUN INTO THE MID 30S. HIGH PWS NEARING 2 INCHES                    
W/LIGHT SWLY WINDS THROUGH 10K FT. LOOKS LIKE HIGH WBZS (>11,500                
FT) AND FZG LVLS ABV 14K FT. SHEAR IS MODEST W/STG WINDS GUSTS                  
POSSIBLE IN STGR STMS. BETTER THREAT LOOKS TO BE VERY HEAVY                     
RAINFALL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. CELLS COULD               
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. WENT W/LIKELY POPS                
ACROSS CNTL & DOWNEAST AREAS W/JUST A CHC ACROSS THE N. BOOSTED                 
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES MAINLY ACROSS NRN AREAS WHERE MORE SUN IS                
POSSIBLE.                                                                       
THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 03Z AS SFC TROF & VORTICITY MAX MOVE                
ON TO THE E. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FROM LAST NIGHT W/THE PASSAGE OF                 
THE TROF. HOWEVER...MINS & DEWPOINTS WILL STILL RUN IN THE 60S.                 
WENT AHEAD & CARRIED FOG ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SAT W/ LATEST 00Z                  
MODEL SUITE TIMING IN GUD AGREEMENT W/ ERLY RUN... APPEARS ANOTHER              
ROUND OF CONVECTION ON TAP FOR THE FA AND HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES                 
TO THE INHERITED GRIDS... TDS REMAIN QUITE JUICY THRU SAT AND                   
STENGTH OF FRONT...SOME UPPER SUPPORT AND FAVORABLE FCST SOUNDING               
PROFILES EVEN SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE A POSSIBILITY... IN               
ANY CASE...C0NVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN FROM NW TO SE LATER SAT AND              
SAT EVE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES S AND E OF THE FA. DRIER AIR AND                
COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE SAT NGT INTO SUN...                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AM FOG/STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ATTM AND XPCT THIS TO                  
DISSIPATE THIS AM AS HEATING/MIXING TAKE OVER. WILL INCLUDE                     
MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTN W/ HINT OF                  
CONVECTION FROM HUL S. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR XPCTD AGAIN TNGT W/                 
LITTLE CHANGE IN BL CONDS...                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WENT AHEAD & HOISTED SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO                 
TONIGHT W/SEAS FCST TO GO TO 6 FT LATER TODAY. WAVEWATCH WAS                    
HANDLING THINGS PER 06Z SO THE DECISION WAS TO LEAN W/IT. WRF12                 
WINDS WERE USED W/ADJUSTMENTS. BROUGHT WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS                 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ANZ050 FROM 3 PM           
     FRIDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/MARINE...HEWITT                                                      
LONG TERM/MARINE...KHW                                                          
AVIATION...KHW/WEITLICH                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
343 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW             
A RATHER MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH SOME FRONTAL FEATURES            
HIDDEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  WAVY SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM                
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WESTWARD TO NEAR DTX...NORTHERN             
IN/IL AND INTO MN.  500MB TROUGH AXIS LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE              
CWA...RUNNING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND BACK              
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/MO/KS.  A COUPLE SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED             
WITHIN THE TROUGH...ONE TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH KICKED               
OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. THAT HAVE DIED OUT...AND ANOTHER              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY                   
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL             
DRY AIR SLOT...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE NE OVER               
SAGINAW BAY TOWARDS ARENAC COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH                
AXIS AND WITHIN 400-200MB DIVERGENCE.                                           
OVER NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY                    
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING CLOSE TO THEIR                   
DEWPOINTS IF THEY HAVE NOT DONE ALREADY...AND PLACES LIKE AT                    
HOUGHTON LAKE/BELLAIRE HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT INTO 1/2SM FOG.                  
EXPECT MORE PLACES ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER TO GET IN ON THE FOG                
ACTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS               
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THEN THE ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
DAY TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND ITS                
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL APPROACH              
THE REGION THIS EVENING.  MAIN FORECASTS CONCERNS THEREFORE REVOLVE             
AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
TODAY...500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE                
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER MICHIGAN.  AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER               
HUDSON BAY...ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO              
NORTHERN MN BY 00Z...STILL QUITE AWAY FROM THE CWA.  SO THAT LEAVES             
MESOSCALE EFFECTS VIA LAKE BREEZE FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP.  BEST               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH                     
SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW MEETING NE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE                 
HURON.  950MB WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL                  
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE.  A SURFACE            
PARCEL 90/64 OVER NE LOWER GENERATES 1000 J/KG SB CAPE WITH NO                  
CIN...BUT NO ML CAPE.  INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH              
WE MIX OUT TODAY AS THE NAM SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR                    
DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 50S.  THIS SEEMS LOW WITH THE RECENT            
RAINFALL...CAN SEE LOWER 60S THOUGH.  WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                  
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE CAP AT ABOUT 625MB SHOULD                   
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.  BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A             
SHOWER CONTINUES TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT               
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER POPPING UP.                               
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...500MB RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES FROM THE MOUNTAIN              
WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN IN WNW FLOW                   
ALOFT...BRINGING AN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT ALONG FOR              
THE RIDE. AS IS TYPICAL...WE/LL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE                
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...ALL WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WOBBLES                
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY STORMY                  
PATTERN...AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THE WEEKEND.             
MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE MEAN FEATURES. MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON             
FINE DETAILS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IT/S UPSCALE FEEDBACKS ONTO THE             
SYNOPTIC SCALE. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER NAM FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN                
MARGINAL FORCING THE LAKES SHOULD TAKE A BIG BITE OUT OF UPSTREAM               
CONVECTION. AND CAPPING WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE              
ELEVATED CAPE AND ALLOW STORMS TO TRANSITION TO ELEVATED. BEYOND                
THAT... PREDICTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AS EXACT TIMING/LOCATION              
OF STORMS DEPENDS TREMENDOUSLY ON EARLIER CONVECTION.                           
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID EVENING              
ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF DULUTH TO CENTRAL UPPER MI.            
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY REACH EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE             
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED BY 0-6KM MEAN WIND                
STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT. WILL REDUCE PRECIP COVERAGE A BIT IN THE              
EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP              
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN            
ORDER IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN NW LOWER...WHERE            
FORCING FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH TO UTILIZE LINGERING                 
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TO THE SE...MUCAPES OVERNIGHT NEAR 1K J/KG ARE             
COUNTERED BY CIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100J/KG. SO QUITE UNCERTAIN WHETHER              
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SE-WARD INTO THE WARM AIR (COLD FRONT            
WON/T GET MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE STRAITS). THUS A 20 POP SEEMS             
APPROPRIATE IN THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                          
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE EVENING.             
BUT SUB-800MB WARM AIR/CAPPING MAKES THIS QUITE UNCERTAIN...                    
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARINE INFLUENCES IN THOSE SPOTS MOST LIKELY TO SEE            
PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE            
AT 25-30KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND FREEZING LEVELS WAY UP NEAR               
15K FEET. SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK UPSTREAM...AND THIS APPEARS             
REASONABLE.                                                                     
SATURDAY...POORLY DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS            
LOWER MI. SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN                 
ZONES...BUT IN GENERAL NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS                   
CHANGE. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE            
GENERAL 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL POOL LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. AN 87/69 SURFACE PARCEL SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2-2.5K                 
J/KG...WHICH IS A LOT. THERE IS NO CAP...THOUGH THIS BE THE MODELS              
ERODING THE WARMER/DRY CAP BELOW 800MB TOO FAST. STILL...THE WEAK               
COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZES...AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD             
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PAST ANY WEAK CAP IN PLACE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.             
WILL HAVE SCT POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF M-72...CHANCE NORTH WHERE                      
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS. MLCAPES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A SVR THREAT             
EVEN THOUGH BULK SHEAR ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN             
ZONES.                                                                          
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN             
LOWER SAT NIGHT...AND INTO AND PERHAPS THRU EASTERN UPPER MI ON                 
SUNDAY. CONVECTION FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE                        
BOUNDARY...BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN IN THE               
SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY GIVEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM.            
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH PERIODS.                
BECOMING HOT AND VERY STEAMY IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON SUNDAY...             
WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.                         
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. MONDAY/TUESDAY STILL LOOK HOT WITH FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.                                                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
300 AM MDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LOW CENTERED VICINITY KGNT              
AROUND 08Z. PROFILER WINDS ALSO SHOW THE CIRCULATION...WITH A DEEP              
LAYER OF EAST/SOUTHEASTERLIES AT KTCC AND NORTHEAST WINDS AT AZTEC.             
RUC PICKS UP ON 2 VORT MAXES ONE VICINITY OF UPPER LOW                          
CIRCULATION...A SECOND BETWEEN KTCC AND KROW. DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE              
WHAT HAPPENS TO THE EASTERN VORT MAX WITHIN A FEW HOURS...BUT AT                
LEAST IT/S MUCH CLEARER THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN              
THE UPPER RIDGE PER PREVIOUS GFS FORECAST. THE NAM IS STARTING TO               
LOOK LIKE THE GFS...HOLDING BACK THE LOW/VORT MAX OR MAXES AND                  
FINALLY LIFTING THEM NORTHEAST MONDAY. IN ANY EVENT...THESE FEATURES            
WILL MEANDER AROUND THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAKING FOR A                
BUSY WEEKEND CONVECTIVE WISE.                                                   
A PERIOD OF EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND INTO                  
TONIGHT AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW MAINTAINS CONTINUITY OVER                      
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO EXPECT THERE WILL BE             
SOME HEAVY RAINERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING...AND WILL OPT FOR THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINS IN ZFP.  AT               
LEAST THERE SHOULD BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE AFTERNOON HEAT. BY                   
SATURDAY WITH UPSLOPE WANES QUICKLY WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGHING TO               
PREVAIL IN THE PLAINS BY THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.                      
IT/S DIFFICULT TO TRACK...BUT EITHER THE CURRENT LOW BACKS INTO                 
ARIZONA LATE IN THE WEEKEND...OR WHETHER THERE/S YET ANOTHER FEATURE            
POSSIBLY WHAT REMAINS OF EMILIA...WHICH BECOMES ENTRAINED IN THE                
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PER THE GFS. AS IT TRACKS ACROSS                
ARIZONA AND NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH                    
TUESDAY...LOOK FOR A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND              
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
ELSEWHERE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY START TO DRY             
OUT A LITTLE BY THEN.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  90  65  93  64 /  20  20  20  30              
GALLUP..........................  85  58  84  57 /  40  30  40  50              
GRANTS..........................  84  57  83  56 /  50  40  40  40              
GLENWOOD........................  87  61  88  59 /  50  50  40  40              
CHAMA...........................  81  48  79  46 /  30  30  30  40              
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  53  84  56 /  60  40  40  40              
RED RIVER.......................  72  44  73  43 /  40  30  30  30              
TAOS............................  79  50  83  50 /  50  40  30  30              
SANTA FE........................  81  54  83  57 /  50  40  40  40              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  57  84  58 /  50  40  40  30              
ESPANOLA........................  84  55  85  55 /  50  40  30  30              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  65  85  66 /  60  50  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  60  87  60 /  60  50  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  63  83  64 /  60  50  40  30              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  64  87  65 /  60  50  40  40              
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  89  62 /  60  50  40  30              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  58  79  55 /  50  50  40  30              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  55  85  57 /  60  50  40  30              
CARRIZOZO.......................  88  60  88  59 /  60  60  40  20              
RUIDOSO.........................  84  56  84  54 /  60  60  40  40              
RATON...........................  80  53  85  55 /  30  20  20  10              
LAS VEGAS.......................  77  52  82  56 /  60  40  30  20              
ROY.............................  83  57  85  59 /  40  20  20  10              
CLAYTON.........................  85  63  91  64 /  30  20  20  10              
SANTA ROSA......................  88  62  91  61 /  50  30  20  20              
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  65  93  67 /  40  30  20  10              
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  92  66 /  40  40  20  20              
CLOVIS..........................  88  67  93  67 /  40  30  20  20              
PORTALES........................  90  66  94  68 /  40  30  20  20              
ROSWELL.........................  90  67  95  69 /  50  40  30  20              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE            
RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE                
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS            
FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH            
AND EAST.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE             
EARLY EVENING.  DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY.                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH ISOLATED              
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                           
TODAY...THE LATEST 40KM RUC/IR LOOP AND THE WATER LOOP SHOWS A                  
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA             
AT 07Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR                 
SCATTERED POTENTIALLY SVR TSRAS AND ESPECIALLY SOME REAL SOAKERS.               
PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.75-2"+ OVER THE FCST AREA. THE 00Z ALY              
SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 2.14" AND A K-INDEX OF 40. THE PWAT VALUE IS             
200% OF NORMAL...WHICH IS A COUPLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE                    
NORMAL.  THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE            
WEATHER ARE AS FOLLOWS: A JET STREAK OF 60-75 KTS WHICH AT 18Z WOULD            
PUT THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WITH               
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT 700 MB OMEGA COUPLED                
WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THETA-E VALUES ARE IN               
THE 335K-350K RANGE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 2-D PANEL LAYOUTS SHOW                
SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OFF THE GFS AND WRF FROM               
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS HAS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY            
NORTH OF ALY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RISES TO 40-45 KTS WITH                  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IMPLIED. THE 850MB  LLJ JET STRENGTHENS TO                 
35-40 KTS SOUTH OF ALY AFTER 18Z.  SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE IN               
THE U60 TO L70S RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTURE RICH...BUT                
WILL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCUR AT THE SFC OR IN BOUNDARY                
LAYER ? THIS FACTOR COUPLED WITH REALLY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE                 
H850-500 AND H700-500 LAYERS MAY INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE             
ENTIRE AREA. WE PHONE COLLABORATED WITH SPC THIS MORNING AFTER THE              
DAY 1 OUTLOOK PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. WE FELT AREAS            
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR            
SEVERE CAPABILITY...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE WRF.  THE                   
INSTABILITY AXIS OFF THE WRF WARRANTED THE NRN EXTENT.  WE WILL BE              
PLACING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE             
MAIN THREAT FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND               
SRN VT SOUTHWARD.  THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES              
MULTICELL CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS.  THE POTENTIAL              
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE IN THE 16Z-19Z TIME FRAME.              
BACK TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLD-SCT               
FLASH FLOOD/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE HIGH PWATS, K INDICES IN             
THE UPPER 30S TO 40.  WE COLLABORATED WITH BUF...BGM AND BTV FOR A              
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL FELT THE THREAT WOULD NOT BE THERE              
IN A WIDESPREAD FORM.  EVEN HPC CHIMED IN AND FELT 1-2" AMOUNTS IN A            
3-6 HOUR WINDOW WOULD YIELD ISOLD FLASH FLOODING AT BEST. THE GFS               
AND NAM BOTH PAINT 1-2.5" OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE FLOOD               
RAVAGED CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY IN A 6-12 HR WINDOW. THE ZONE FFG VALUES            
SHOULD HOLD THESE AMOUNTS...BUT IF 2-3" FALL IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS               
PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ON THE SMALL                
STREAMS AND CREEKS. WE WILL COMMUNICATE THIS THREAT BELOW IN THE                
HYDRO SECTION AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS WILL HAVE              
TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE RAISED POPS TO                 
CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                               
FRI NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CAN REG AND HAVE THE                
COOL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 01Z. THE               
WRF LINGERS THINGS LONGER...BUT ITS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN WEAKER THE             
PAST FEW RUNS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE BOUNDARY               
WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO +15/+16C. DEWPOINTS ONLY CRACK DOWN            
TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.                                                        
SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND NW                
FLOW KICK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. H850 TEMPS +17C-+18C WITH A                 
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PRODUCING COMPRESSIONAL/SUPERADIABATIC HEATING            
WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE U80 TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS. WE PLACED LOW              
CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WITH             
TERRAIN INDUCED INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT              
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE DAY.                             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE WENT WITH A DRY SCENARIO SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH ANY CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ENDING EARLY. THE            
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A SLOW MOVER WITH IT PRESSING                  
SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS            
MEAGER WITH LIMITED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...SO WE WENT WITH A GENERIC               
LOW CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ON SUNDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                   
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVY ANALYSIS ON THE            
POTENTIAL SHORT TERM SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR NY/PA ON MON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH IT             
FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR A DRY DAY ON MON. SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW                 
CHANCE POPS FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE IN THE GRIDS MON NIGHT-THU...AS             
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS LOOK NEAR             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH.                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.                
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN               
HAZE.  THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM ALB TO POU THROUGH                          
SUNRISE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SO ACKNOWLEDGING WITH                  
VCSH. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER THIS                
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN                       
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.  LIGHT                
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FIRE                
WEATHER THREATS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY IN            
THE 75-100% RANGE.  THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEFORE               
SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON             
AND EARLY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST            
UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SATURDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...MOST AREAS RECEIVED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                 
YESTERDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. TODAY WILL FEATURE               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
AREA. WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 2 SD ABOVE                 
NORMAL...AND EARLIER OBSERVED 6 HOURLY RAINFALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY             
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                  
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER            
TERRAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MEANING              
LOCAL POINT RAINFALLS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF             
TIME.  SINCE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONFINED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PEAKS              
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE            
LOWEST...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THREAT NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD                 
ENOUGH...BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM THIS                    
AFTERNOON.  EVEN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING                  
POSSIBLE WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION.            
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND                
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE LARGER                 
RIVERS.  LOCAL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS             
WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...WASULA                                                               
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
LONG TERM...WASULA                                                              
AVIATION...NAS                                                                  
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/WASULA                                                       
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
344 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF PCPN TODAY. THERE IS               
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH H5 TROUGHING AND DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY. MOS                
POPS AND MODEL PCPN EFFICIENCIES LIKELY OR HIGHER IN NORTHWEST MID              
TN. IR SATELLITE OVERLAID WITH RUC SHOWS CONVECTIVE RAINFALL AT                 
BASE OF H5 TROUGH...ALONG THE MID MS RVR. UPR HIGH THAT PLAYED A                
ROLE IN THU WEATHER REMAINS SOUTH TODAY...AS H5 TROUGH MOVES OVER               
MID TN.                                                                         
GFS40/NMM WRF SHOWS HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL. OHX WRF MODEL LESS              
SO WITH SWATH ACROSS NW OF METRO NASHVILLE. LIKELY POPS NORTHWEST               
MID TN TODAY...INCL NASHVILLE AT SOUTHERN END. MOSTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES. MAV TEMPS A LITTLE TOO LOW.                                              
MODEL PCPN WATER VALUES REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY              
SKIES CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS. HIGHER MOISTURE MAY SHIFT SOUTH WITH              
UPR NW FLOW BACK SIDE OF TROUGH.                                                
MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR APPROACHING SATURDAY WITH WEDGE OF DRY AIR                
BTW GREAT LAKES AND OH RVR. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN S AND E                 
MID TN. GFS40 QPF SEEMS OVERDONE ON WEST SIDE OF TROUGH. AFTER                  
THAT...WARM UPR HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND MOVE OVER MID TN EARLY                 
NEXT WEEK. 28/00Z MEX WARM TEMPS ACCEPTED...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL                 
POPS SLIGHT TO CHC.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
NASHVILLE    88  73  88  72 /  60  30  40  20                                   
CLARKSVILLE  85  72  89  71 /  70  30  30  20                                   
CROSSVILLE   86  68  82  68 /  40  50  40  30                                   
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                           
STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS                 
HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS              
WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY           
DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN             
TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN                
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND                 
WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY.                                   
TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN              
THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS               
PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE                 
WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW                
ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY                      
DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO                
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                   
MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS                 
TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF              
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD                        
CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT                  
PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT              
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.            
IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST.                        
LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE             
DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV                 
(BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.                
KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT               
SKED.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                    
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.            
IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST.                        
LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE             
DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV                 
(BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.                
KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT               
SKED.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
.FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                   
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RCS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1210 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG JUST ABOUT BURNED AWAY OVER THE                
S/SW PORTION OF THE CWA LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE                
CWA. UPSTREAM...AREA OF MID CLOUD COMING ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER                   
MICHIGAN DOWN INTO GREEN BAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD BEEN OCCURRING            
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN EARLIER IN THE MORNING BUT            
HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH JUST A              
FEW BLIPS LEFT ON MQT RADAR.                                                    
BROAD UPPER RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL                
CONUS WHILE STRONGER BELT OF W/WNW FLOW ALOFT POISED ACROSS SOUTHERN            
CANADA BRUSHING THE U.S. BORDER AND NRN GREAT LAKES. UNDER THE BROAD            
UPPER RIDGE...VERY WARM AIR NOTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING            
WHICH WILL BE NOSING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH                
SATURDAY. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALING APPROACHING COLD FRONT                     
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO CENTRAL MN. 12Z APX SOUNDING                
LOOKING ON THE DRY SIDE BLO 700 MB WITH A DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 15C            
AT 850 MB. BUT JUST ACROSS THE LAKE GRB SOUNDING MUCH MORE MOIST IN             
THE LOWER LAYERS AS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS IS POOLING                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM NRN WISCONSIN BACK INTO MN/IA PER 12Z                 
UPPER AIR CHARTS.                                                               
THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS                      
EASTWARD...LAYING OUT FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN MN BY                 
EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM UPSTREAM AIR WILL GRADUALLY            
NOSE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +18C TO +20C             
ACCOMPANIED BY SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LAYERS. BASED ON RELATIVELY            
DRY 12Z APX SOUNDING...WITH DAYTIME MIXING SFC DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE            
OFF A BIT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS INTO THE 50S. AND COMBINED             
WITH THE WARMING ALOFT WILL KEEP US CAPPED OFF TO MOIST CONVECTION              
FOR AWHILE. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL ALSO                
MAKE INROADS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER            
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE                     
DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERHAPS ENOUGH             
TO GET BY CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT. FROM A FORCING STANDPOINT NO HELP               
SYNOPTICALLY WITH THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE REGION. BUT MAY GET              
ENOUGH FORCING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH CONVERGING LAKE               
BREEZES. THUS...HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THIS               
AREA AFTER 3PM OR SO. ALSO...STRONGER CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE HURON              
SHORELINE MAY ALSO DO THE SAME AND HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE                   
THERE.                                                                          
OTHERWISE...A WARM DAY ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS HITTING THE UPPER 80S             
TO LOWER 90S AND SOME HIGH BASED CU FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.             
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                     
DISCUSSION...05Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A RATHER MESSY SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN...WITH SOME FRONTAL FEATURES            
HIDDEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  WAVY SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES FROM                
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO WESTWARD TO NEAR DTX...NORTHERN             
IN/IL AND INTO MN.  500MB TROUGH AXIS LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE              
CWA...RUNNING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO...OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...AND BACK              
ACROSS NORTHERN IL/MO/KS.  A COUPLE SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED             
WITHIN THE TROUGH...ONE TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH KICKED               
OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE U.P. THAT HAVE DIED OUT...AND ANOTHER              
OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY                   
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MID-LEVEL             
DRY AIR SLOT...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO MOVE NE OVER               
SAGINAW BAY TOWARDS ARENAC COUNTY JUST AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH                
AXIS AND WITHIN 400-200MB DIVERGENCE.                                           
OVER NW LOWER/EASTERN UPPER...WHERE SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY                    
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY...TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING CLOSE TO THEIR                   
DEWPOINTS IF THEY HAVE NOT DONE ALREADY...AND PLACES LIKE AT                    
HOUGHTON LAKE/BELLAIRE HAVE ALREADY BROKEN OUT INTO 1/2SM FOG.                  
EXPECT MORE PLACES ESPECIALLY OVER NW LOWER TO GET IN ON THE FOG                
ACTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS               
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THEN THE ATTENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
DAY TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND ITS                
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL APPROACH              
THE REGION THIS EVENING.  MAIN FORECASTS CONCERNS THEREFORE REVOLVE             
AROUND PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.                                           
TODAY...500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE                
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER MICHIGAN.  AS THE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER               
HUDSON BAY...ITS COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO              
NORTHERN MN BY 00Z...STILL QUITE AWAY FROM THE CWA.  SO THAT LEAVES             
MESOSCALE EFFECTS VIA LAKE BREEZE FOR ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP.  BEST               
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER WITH                     
SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW MEETING NE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF LAKE                 
HURON.  950MB WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20KTS OVER EASTERN UPPER WILL                  
PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THERE.  A SURFACE            
PARCEL 90/64 OVER NE LOWER GENERATES 1000 J/KG SB CAPE WITH NO                  
CIN...BUT NO ML CAPE.  INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH              
WE MIX OUT TODAY AS THE NAM SOUNDING SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR                    
DEWPOINTS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER 50S.  THIS SEEMS LOW WITH THE RECENT            
RAINFALL...CAN SEE LOWER 60S THOUGH.  WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING                  
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE CAP AT ABOUT 625MB SHOULD                   
STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.  BELIEVE THE CHANCE FOR A             
SHOWER CONTINUES TO BE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT               
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED RENEGADE SHOWER POPPING UP.                               
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...500MB RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MIGRATES FROM THE MOUNTAIN              
WEST INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL REMAIN IN WNW FLOW                   
ALOFT...BRINGING AN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT ALONG FOR              
THE RIDE. AS IS TYPICAL...WE/LL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE                
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...ALL WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WOBBLES                
NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY STORMY                  
PATTERN...AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THRU THE WEEKEND.             
MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE MEAN FEATURES. MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON             
FINE DETAILS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IT/S UPSCALE FEEDBACKS ONTO THE             
SYNOPTIC SCALE. PREFER THE SOMEWHAT DRIER NAM FOR TONIGHT. GIVEN                
MARGINAL FORCING THE LAKES SHOULD TAKE A BIG BITE OUT OF UPSTREAM               
CONVECTION. AND CAPPING WILL MAKE IT SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO UTILIZE              
ELEVATED CAPE AND ALLOW STORMS TO TRANSITION TO ELEVATED. BEYOND                
THAT... PREDICTABILITY RAPIDLY DIMINISHES AS EXACT TIMING/LOCATION              
OF STORMS DEPENDS TREMENDOUSLY ON EARLIER CONVECTION.                           
TONIGHT...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID EVENING              
ALONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF DULUTH TO CENTRAL UPPER MI.            
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEFINITELY REACH EASTERN UPPER MI IN THE             
EVENING. TO THE SOUTH PROGRESS WILL BE SLOWED BY 0-6KM MEAN WIND                
STRUGGLING TO REACH 20KT. WILL REDUCE PRECIP COVERAGE A BIT IN THE              
EVENING HOURS...BUT STILL ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP              
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS IN            
ORDER IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND NEAR LAKE MI SHORE IN NW LOWER...WHERE            
FORCING FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE QUICK ENOUGH TO UTILIZE LINGERING                 
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. TO THE SE...MUCAPES OVERNIGHT NEAR 1K J/KG ARE             
COUNTERED BY CIN NEAR OR ABOVE 100J/KG. SO QUITE UNCERTAIN WHETHER              
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SE-WARD INTO THE WARM AIR (COLD FRONT            
WON/T GET MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE STRAITS). THUS A 20 POP SEEMS             
APPROPRIATE IN THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                          
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS IN THE EVENING.             
BUT SUB-800MB WARM AIR/CAPPING MAKES THIS QUITE UNCERTAIN...                    
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARINE INFLUENCES IN THOSE SPOTS MOST LIKELY TO SEE            
PRECIP EARLY IN THE EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE            
AT 25-30KT EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND FREEZING LEVELS WAY UP NEAR               
15K FEET. SPC OUTLOOK KEEPS SLIGHT RISK UPSTREAM...AND THIS APPEARS             
REASONABLE.                                                                     
SATURDAY...POORLY DEFINED BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS            
LOWER MI. SOMEWHAT COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE FAR NORTHERN                 
ZONES...BUT IN GENERAL NOT ANTICIPATING A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS                   
CHANGE. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WHERE            
GENERAL 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG/NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL POOL LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE. AN 87/69 SURFACE PARCEL SUPPORTS MLCAPES 2-2.5K                 
J/KG...WHICH IS A LOT. THERE IS NO CAP...THOUGH THIS BE THE MODELS              
ERODING THE WARMER/DRY CAP BELOW 800MB TOO FAST. STILL...THE WEAK               
COLD FRONT...LAKE BREEZES...AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD             
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH PAST ANY WEAK CAP IN PLACE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.             
WILL HAVE SCT POPS NEAR/SOUTH OF M-72...CHANCE NORTH WHERE                      
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LESS. MLCAPES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A SVR THREAT             
EVEN THOUGH BULK SHEAR ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 30KT IN THE SOUTHERN             
ZONES.                                                                          
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN             
LOWER SAT NIGHT...AND INTO AND PERHAPS THRU EASTERN UPPER MI ON                 
SUNDAY. CONVECTION FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE                        
BOUNDARY...BUT HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION EVEN IN THE               
SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY GIVEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STILL WELL UPSTREAM.            
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH PERIODS.                
BECOMING HOT AND VERY STEAMY IN MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER ON SUNDAY...             
WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 90 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.                         
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. MONDAY/TUESDAY STILL LOOK HOT WITH FLAT            
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.                                                            
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1144 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. BREAKS IN              
CLOUD COVER OBSERVED HERE AND ON SATELLITE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH HALF             
OF CWA. THUS WILL BRING MAX TEMPS UP FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS INTO THE              
BERKSHIRES. WILL ALSO GO A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC ON SKY COVER IN               
THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL.                                                        
MORNING ALY SOUNDING SHOW PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...2.04 INCHES.              
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AS DESCRIBED BELOW STILL A CONCERN. HAVE POSTED A            
SMALL STREAM ADVISORY FOR HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES INTO THIS              
AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR NO FLASH FLOODING THERE AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR.       
MODIFYING 12Z ALY SOUNDING TO 85/72 YIELDS CAPE OF ABOUT 2KJ/KG.                
EARLY MORNING ALY THINKING WAS THAT SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE MORE OF A            
SOUTH HALF CWA ISSUE...THAN ENTIRE REGION. MORNING SPC UPDATE                   
CONCURRED...ESSENTIALLY WRAPPING SEVERE THREAT FROM CAPITAL DISTRICT            
SOUTH. IF WE CAN MAINTAIN SOME SUNSHINE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGH                  
TEMPS...THEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE            
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT                
CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE             
RIVER VALLEY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE                
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS            
FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH            
AND EAST.  THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE             
EARLY EVENING.  DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY.                   
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DESCENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH ISOLATED              
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
TODAY...THE LATEST 40KM RUC/IR LOOP AND THE WATER LOOP SHOWS A                  
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA             
AT 07Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS               
THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR                 
SCATTERED POTENTIALLY SVR TSRAS AND ESPECIALLY SOME REAL SOAKERS.               
PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY 1.75-2"+ OVER THE FCST AREA. THE 00Z ALY              
SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 2.14" AND A K-INDEX OF 40. THE PWAT VALUE IS             
200% OF NORMAL...WHICH IS A COUPLE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE                    
NORMAL.  THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE            
WEATHER ARE AS FOLLOWS: A JET STREAK OF 60-75 KTS WHICH AT 18Z WOULD            
PUT THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WITH               
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND EXCELLENT 700 MB OMEGA COUPLED                
WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THETA-E VALUES ARE IN               
THE 335K-350K RANGE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 2-D PANEL LAYOUTS SHOW                
SBCAPE/MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OFF THE GFS AND WRF FROM               
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE GFS HAS MUCH LESS INSTABILITY            
NORTH OF ALY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RISES TO 40-45 KTS WITH                  
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IMPLIED. THE 850MB  LLJ JET STRENGTHENS TO                 
35-40 KTS SOUTH OF ALY AFTER 18Z.  SFC DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE IN               
THE U60 TO L70S RANGE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOISTURE RICH...BUT                
WILL SUFFICIENT DIABATIC HEATING OCCUR AT THE SFC OR IN BOUNDARY                
LAYER ? THIS FACTOR COUPLED WITH REALLY POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE                 
H850-500 AND H700-500 LAYERS MAY INHIBIT SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE             
ENTIRE AREA. WE PHONE COLLABORATED WITH SPC THIS MORNING AFTER THE              
DAY 1 OUTLOOK PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK. WE FELT AREAS            
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALY FCST AREA WOULD BE THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR            
SEVERE CAPABILITY...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS OVER THE WRF.  THE                   
INSTABILITY AXIS OFF THE WRF WARRANTED THE NRN EXTENT.  WE WILL BE              
PLACING ENHANCED WORDING IN THE ZFP PRODUCT WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE             
MAIN THREAT FROM THE LOWER CATSKILLS...GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND               
SRN VT SOUTHWARD.  THE UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES              
MULTICELL CONVECTION MAY FORM INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS.  THE POTENTIAL              
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL MOST LIKELY FIRE IN THE 16Z-19Z TIME FRAME.              
BACK TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WE WERE CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLD-SCT               
FLASH FLOOD/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE HIGH PWATS, K INDICES IN             
THE UPPER 30S TO 40.  WE COLLABORATED WITH BUF...BGM AND BTV FOR A              
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL FELT THE THREAT WOULD NOT BE THERE              
IN A WIDESPREAD FORM.  EVEN HPC CHIMED IN AND FELT 1-2" AMOUNTS IN A            
3-6 HOUR WINDOW WOULD YIELD ISOLD FLASH FLOODING AT BEST. THE GFS               
AND NAM BOTH PAINT 1-2.5" OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE FLOOD               
RAVAGED CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY IN A 6-12 HR WINDOW. THE ZONE FFG VALUES            
SHOULD HOLD THESE AMOUNTS...BUT IF 2-3" FALL IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS               
PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN URBAN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND ON THE SMALL                
STREAMS AND CREEKS. WE WILL COMMUNICATE THIS THREAT BELOW IN THE                
HYDRO SECTION AND IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS WILL HAVE              
TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WE RAISED POPS TO                 
CATEGORICAL AND LIKELY VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.                               
FRI NIGHT...WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND CAN REG AND HAVE THE                
COOL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA BY 01Z. THE               
WRF LINGERS THINGS LONGER...BUT ITS PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN WEAKER THE             
PAST FEW RUNS. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS WEAK BEHIND THE BOUNDARY               
WITH H850 TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO +15/+16C. DEWPOINTS ONLY CRACK DOWN            
TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.                                                        
SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE TN VALLEY AND NW                
FLOW KICK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. H850 TEMPS +17C-+18C WITH A                 
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT PRODUCING COMPRESSIONAL/SUPERADIABATIC HEATING            
WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE U80 TO L90S IN THE VALLEYS. WE PLACED LOW              
CHANCES OF SHRAS/TSRAS OVER THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS WITH             
TERRAIN INDUCED INSTABILITY IN THE NW FLOW. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT              
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LATE IN THE DAY.                             
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE WENT WITH A DRY SCENARIO SATURDAY               
NIGHT WITH ANY CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER ENDING EARLY. THE            
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A SLOW MOVER WITH IT PRESSING                  
SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS            
MEAGER WITH LIMITED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT...SO WE WENT WITH A GENERIC               
LOW CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS ON SUNDAY.                                            
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NO CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE HEAVY ANALYSIS ON THE            
POTENTIAL SHORT TERM SVR/HVY RAIN THREAT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY                  
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR NY/PA ON MON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MAY PUSH IT             
FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD FOR A DRY DAY ON MON. SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW                 
CHANCE POPS FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE IN THE GRIDS MON NIGHT-THU...AS             
DISTURBANCES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS LOOK NEAR             
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH.                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
A WARM AND HUMID SUMMERTIME AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY.                
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT FOR SOME AREAS OF MVFR IN               
HAZE.  THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS FROM ALB TO POU THROUGH                          
SUNRISE...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SO ACKNOWLEDGING WITH                  
VCSH. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS LATER THIS                
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN                       
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THIS EVENING.  LIGHT                
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING.                 
FIRE WEATHER...RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY FIRE                 
WEATHER THREATS.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY IN            
THE 75-100% RANGE.  THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH BEFORE               
SHIFTING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON             
AND EARLY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST            
UPSTATE NEW YORK ON SATURDAY.                                                   
HYDROLOGY...MOST AREAS RECEIVED WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS                  
YESTERDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. TODAY WILL FEATURE               
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE              
AREA. WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER 2 SD ABOVE                 
NORMAL...AND EARLIER OBSERVED 6 HOURLY RAINFALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY             
FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                  
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN OUR REGION...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER            
TERRAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE DOUBLE IN HIGHER TERRAIN...MEANING              
LOCAL POINT RAINFALLS 4 TO 6 INCHES IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF             
TIME.  SINCE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONFINED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PEAKS              
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS...WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE            
LOWEST...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THREAT NOT QUITE WIDESPREAD                 
ENOUGH...BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM THIS                    
AFTERNOON.  EVEN SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING                  
POSSIBLE WITH OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION.            
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND                
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED ON THE LARGER                 
RIVERS.  LOCAL FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS             
WEATHER OUTLOOK.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...OKEEFE                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
1000 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...A HOT DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH HEAT                 
INDICES AAT9 AM RUNNING IN THE MID 90S ALONG COAST WITH UPPER                   
90S REPORTED AT WHITEVILLE. WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID                
TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ON THE COAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES       
TO BE A GOOD BET ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH DEW                  
POINT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WHEN MIXING BEGINS.                     
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER INLAND BUT WITH WARMER                       
TEMPERATURES BELIEVE ADVISORY CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED. CLOUD                   
COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO LESSEN MY                 
PEAK HEATING TIME.                                                              
SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW THE INLAND TROUGH SO EXPECT                      
LESS COVERAGE FROM THE CONVECTION. 12 UTC RUC SHOWING A SHORTWAVE               
OFF THE COAST MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SUBSIDENCE IN ITS                
WAKE. SO EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY THEN WAS SEEN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON                 
AND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE WITH AN                      
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND ONLY MESO-SCALE LIFTING WILL BE FROM THE                
SEA-BREEZE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SOME CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING MAY HELP TO CREATE SOME DIFFERENTIAL  
HEATING BOUNDARIES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.                     
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17-18Z. DECENT                
OMEGA OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL FIRE CONVECTION IN               
THAT REGION 18-19Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 23Z. PUT A TEMPO GROUP IN               
FOR ALL TERMINALS...WITH MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH JUST ABOVE               
MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH OCNL GUSTS              
NEAR 20 MPH. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL BRING               
FOG INTO THE PICTURE. GRADIENT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP                     
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 4-5 NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A SW FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL                
WATERS TODAY. THE BACKGROUND FLOW AS DETERMINED BY THE PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT IS 10-15 KT OR SO...BUT THIS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEAR            
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE. MOS             
GUIDANCE AT MYR ACTUALLY SHOWS 16-17 KT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED BY             
21Z...WHICH MAY TRANSLATE TO WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KT NEAR THE BEACHES            
BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FT BOTH NEARSHORE AND                
OFFSHORE AS MEASURED AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...THE LEJEUNE BUOY...AND             
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY. INCREASING WINDS AND AN INCREASING SE               
SWELL WILL PUSH COMBINED SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE AS CURRENTLY                
FORECAST. WILL ADD NEARSHORE DETAIL FOR WINDS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.           
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ087-096-097-099>101 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ024-032>034-039-046 UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY.                
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS                                                            
AVIATION...43                                                                   
MARINE...TRA                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MESOANALYSIS AT LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOWS RIDGE            
AXIS ACROSS THE CWA...AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES WESTWARD OVER            
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THUNDERSTORM CHECKLIST INDICATES AN AFTERNOON              
ENVIRONMENT FULL OF INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY POTENTIAL. LIFTED                  
INDICES FALL TO -8 ACCORDING TO THE MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDING...WITH            
CAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. COMPARING THE MODIFIED CHS AND JAX                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER CAP OVER THE                  
GEORGIA ZONES...WHICH MAY INHIBIT OR DELAY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE                
DEVELOPMENT IN THOSE AREAS.                                                     
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALREADY PREVALENT ALONG THE SOUTH               
CAROLINA COASTLINE FROM AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OFFSHORE. WOULD            
EXPECT CHARLESTON...BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES TO BE THE FIRST            
IN THE CWA TO SEE POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. EARLY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM INITIATION POSSIBLE...ONCE             
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 90S IS REACHED. FIRST                   
CONVECTION OF THE DAY WILL BE ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY AND ARE              
EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF               
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE               
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW...SO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY              
BE A PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE                  
ENTIRE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUING                  
THROUGH THE EVENING.                                                            
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE            
DAY. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY REPORTING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES            
THIS MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH                  
INLAND GEORGIA ZONES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL KEEP HEAT                    
ADVISORY GOING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                  
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES TO NECESSARY THIS MORNING.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT MARINE SITES INDICATE WINDS FROM              
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE               
LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS...AS RUC AND NAM MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT WINDS              
WILL REACH 15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP UP THE WINDS TO BETTER             
REPRESENT CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ATLANTIC HIGH            
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE COASTAL                 
WATERS TODAY...MAINTAINING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SCATTERED CU WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE                     
COASTLINE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE BY             
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...AND                   
CONTINUING AFTER BOUNDARY PASSAGE WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR.            
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CB IN TAFS...WITH THE INTENTION OF UPDATING AS            
CONVECTION DEVELOPS TO BETTER PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF CONVECTION.                
SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A RESULT OF              
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...HEAT ADVISORY GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.                          
SC...HEAT ADVISORY SCZ040-042>045-047>051.                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
79                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1039 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FOLLOWING: A TROF                     
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM; A SHORTWAVE HAS EJECTED FROM THIS                
FEATURE AND WILL GRADUALLY CREEP TOWARD THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON.                
TEMPERATURES ALOFT STILL FAIRLY WARM...ALTHOUGH 50H TEMPERATURE AT              
PEACHTREE CITY INDICATES A COOL POOL WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON                  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INITIALLY MOIST                
AIRMASS...YET STREAMLINES WOULD ADVECT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO                 
THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS WEST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH POTENTIAL                    
ENHANCEMENT TO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.               
AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROF APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP SHOP A LITTLE                
WEST OF YESTERDAY/S POSITION BUT PROGD TO REMAIN NEAR OUR EASTERN ZONES.        
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MIXED BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER                
THE MOUNTAINS...AS FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE                     
MOUNTAINS WITH HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. SKIES               
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...EXPECT A DAY OF                
NEARLY FULL SUN UNTIL LATE...SUPPORTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN                 
THE MID 90S MOST AREAS; WE ACTUALLY BUMPED UP MAXES A DEGREE IN                 
THE UPSTATE. APPEARS ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP MIXING WILL INTERACT WITH              
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO BRING DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY                
INTO THE LOWER 60S AGAIN PER WS-WRF/RUC SOLUTION IN THE SOUTHWEST CWFA.         
THUS...INSTABILITY MAY BE TEMPERED AGAIN IN THE SOUTH DESPITE THE               
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AS A GREATER LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION WILL                
EXIST THIS AFTERNOON. DOES NOT APPEAR CHANGES TO PROGD HEAT INDEX               
ARE MAJOR...WITH THAT INDEX TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 OR SO IN CERTAIN               
SPOTS.                                                                          
ONLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION-WISE WAS TO NUDGE AFTERNOON POPS TO                   
CHANCE ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION...AND INTO THE EASTERN                 
SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...WHERE CONVERGENCE MAY BE GREATER THAN                 
YESTERDAY SHOULD THE LEE TROF REMAIN ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. WE               
KEPT ISOLATED WORDING ALL OTHER LOCATIONS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 221 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL LOW AREN/T DOING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING                 
OVER AR. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE                 
PICK THIS LOW UP LATER TONIGHT AND PUSH IT ACROSS THE SRN MID-                  
ATLANTIC AND WESTERN CAROLINAS EARLY SATURDAY.                                  
FOR TODAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE            
REGION. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MODELS ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT                
MIXING OUT OF DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN            
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT                   
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST 00 UTC. THE NAM DOESN/T HAVE               
ANY PCPN AT ALL OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE EVENING...WHILE THE GFS              
MASS FIELDS GO A LITTLE WONKY WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.                    
HOWEVER...GFS MOS POPS ARE ALSO QUITE LOW TODAY. THEREFORE...THE                
ONLY AREAS THAT WILL HAVE A MENTIONABLE POP IN THE FIRST PERIOD WILL            
BE THE WESTERN MTNS AND AREAS EAST OF CHARLOTTE. TEMPS WILL BE HOT              
AGAIN TODAY...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH             
MANY FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE MID 90S...WITH            
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE UPSTATE AND NE            
GA. HOWEVER...WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT...WE SHOULD NOT REACH HEAT              
ADVISORY CRITERIA.                                                              
THE GFS AND NAM BOTH IMPLY THAT A NOCTURNAL MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE           
VIRGINIAS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES IN THE NOSE OF A                
FAIRLY STRONG LLVL JET. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL                  
FEATURES...AND HAS A MORE COHERENT AREA OF CONVECTIVE PCPN...BUT IN             
EITHER CASE MOST OF THE PCPN WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH WITH                        
INSTABILITY VERY LIMITED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.                                
BY SATURDAY THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK SOUTHEAST OF THE             
AREA AS HEIGHTS RISE TO THE NORTHWEST. EACH MODEL DEVELOPS A SMALL              
CUTOFF LOW AS THIS HAPPENS. THE GFS/S IS JUST OFF THE NC/VA                     
COAST...WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO DANVILLE.                
THE NAM SOLUTION IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN MODELS...SO I                
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.                          
HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SHORT WAVE MIXES US                    
OUT...WITH ALMOST NO CAPE ON THE NAM PLAN VIEW OVER THE FORECAST                
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL                
PROBABLY BE EAST OF THE REGION. LLVL THICKNESSES WILL BE A GOOD 10              
METERS LOWER ON SATURDAY...BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY STILL               
PUSH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS TO 90 OR HIGHER.                          
SUNDAYS FORECAST DEPENDS UPON WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS...BUT IT WILL          
PROBABLY BE WARMER AND DRIER THAN SATURDAY...AND WHILE I HAVE LOW               
CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS TO LINE UP WITH THE NEIGHBORS...I HAVE MY              
DOUBTS AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND LAYER RH/S CONTINUE TO LOWER.                
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS THE BERMUDA HIGH LOOKS TO SET                
UP SHOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS.                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
NIL AMD KAVL TAF UNTIL COMMUNICATION PROBLEM WITH THE ASOS IS                   
CORRECTED.                                                                      
SOME HIGHER LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH LOW CROSSOVER TEMPS             
TO PRECLUDE MUCH FOG EAST OF THE MTNS AND WILL GO WITH JUST A TEMPO             
VFR BR THREAT AT BOTH KCLT/KAND. SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG ALREADY NOTED             
IN THE SW NC MTNS...AND WITH THINNING OBSERVED IN HIGHER LVL                    
BKN/OVC...SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MVFR FOG AT KAVL. BETTER CHANCES            
FOR DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACRS THE HIGHER               
TERRAIN AND JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION...DPVA TO BE IN THE              
INCREASE ACRS THE WESTERN CWFA THIS EVENING AS MID-LVL S/WV ROTATES             
IN. SO...OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANY TERMINAL SEEING DEEP CONVECTION                
THIS PERIOD SEEMS TO LIE WITH KAVL...AND WILL INTRODUCE VCSH                    
STARTING LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RUN THROUGH END OF PERIOD.                       
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SAB                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BY LATE MORNING, BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD PENETRATED               
ALL OF NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND WAS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE                 
GRADUALLY EASTWARD.                                                             
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND RUC FORECASTS SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE              
ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE                 
TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY             
AXIS AND DEEPEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CORRIDOR EXISTS FOR THE                   
AFTERNOON MAX HEATING PERIOD. IN ADDITION, LOW LEVEL JET IS IN                  
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH 850 MB WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO             
BE AROUND 30 KTS (WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER).               
ALSO, EXPECT A GOOD 200MB DIVERGENT AND DIFFLUENT PATTERN TO EXPAND             
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BEST SPEED                        
DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BEST DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE                
NORTH (IN BETWEEN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARK-LA-TEX          
REGION).                                                                        
AS A RESULT, HAVE BUMPED POPS INTO THE CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE                
NORTHWEST AND EXTENDED THE 60 PERCENT POPS TO THE NORTHERN                      
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN PLACE, HAVE             
ALSO INCREASED AFTEROON WINDS AND ADDED MENTION OF GUSTS FOR MUCH               
OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                           
FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH PWA'S THIS AFTERNOON, CLOSE TO TWO             
INCHES. LI'S WILL BE IN THE -2 TO -5 RANGE, WITH SWEAT INDEX                    
BETWEEN 250 AND 350.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THERE HAS                
BEEN AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OR NORTH                  
CAROLINA WHERE MSAS IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES ALREADY DOWN TO              
-6. SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN                 
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
IN THE EAST BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MODIFIED GSO                 
SOUNDING. ALSO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY                
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT                
24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES.             
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM              
THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST                
ESP LATE.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS                 
HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS              
WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY           
DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN             
TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN                
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND                 
WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY.                                   
TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN              
THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS               
PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE                 
WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW                
ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY                      
DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO                
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                   
MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS                 
TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF              
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD                        
CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT                  
PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT              
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.            
IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST.                        
LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE             
DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV                 
(BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.                
KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT               
SKED.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                    
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT                
24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES.             
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM              
THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST                
ESP LATE.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS                 
HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS              
WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY           
DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN             
TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN                
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND                 
WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY.                                   
TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN              
THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS               
PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE                 
WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW                
ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY                      
DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO                
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                   
MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS                 
TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF              
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD                        
CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT                  
PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT              
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.            
IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST.                        
LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE             
DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV                 
(BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.                
KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT               
SKED.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                    
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
228 PM MST FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER                
LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN                
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH             
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND DEEP MOISTURE                 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH              
FLOODING THROUGH THIS LATE SATURDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW SPINNING            
JUST EAST OF ST. JOHNS ARIZONA...RIGHT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.             
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT             
HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE UPPER LOW. SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE                  
CURRENTLY DROPPING OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM THAT EXTEND FROM WEST OF                
FLAGSTAFF TO AROUND PAYSON AND TO NORTH OF GLOBE. ALL OF THE STORMS             
ARE HEADED TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BOX              
WAS ISSUED BY SPC WHICH INCLUDES MY PORTION OF PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 8             
PM MST THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS MY FORECAST AREA ISOLATED TO              
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR AN HOUR OR SO GENERALLY ALONG            
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NEAR NOGALES TO THE RUCKER CANYON. A              
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHWEST             
COCHISE COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE BURN AREA FOR THE 103 FIRE.                       
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES EXPECT TO SEE SOME STRONG IF NOT SEVERE               
STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MY FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST                 
PINAL COUNTY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MY FORECAST AREA                
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH            
AT THIS TIME THE MAIN THREAT FOR MOST OF MY FORECAST AREA WILL BE               
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SUFFICIENT RAIN TO RESULT IN FLASH                    
FLOODING.                                                                       
WITH THE MODELS INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS IN NO HURRY TO LEAVE WE              
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT RAINFALL OCCURRING AS IMPULSES               
FROM THE UPPER LOW TRIGGER STORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THE            
MOGOLLON RIM AND PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN DESERTS OF ARIZONA. THIS                
SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON            
SATURDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 8              
PM MST SATURDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF RAIN FELL LAST NIGHT AND THIS                
MORNING WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF                 
INCH...BUT THE SANTA CATALINA'S RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL WITH             
13 REPORTING STATIONS ON THE MOUNTAIN RECEIVING OVER ONE INCH IN THE            
PAST 12 TO 16 HOURS. FOR A COMPLETE LISTING OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM            
AROUND THE REGION REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT              
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MST THIS MORNING (AWIPS HEADER PHXPNSTWC; OR REFER            
TO OUR WEB PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON).                                         
BY SUNDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION...BUT                 
SHOULD BE IN A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER STATE. THEREFORE...EXPECTING THE             
RAIN CHANCES TO BE A BIT LESS AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING TO HAVE               
DIMINISHED AS WELL SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THAT WE CURRENTLY              
HAVE SHOULD BE LACKING BY THEN. BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH                
FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST             
COAST THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PERHAPS            
WESTERN ARIZONA. FOR NOW I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST...              
AND LOW END OF CHANCE POPS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES EACH DAY               
THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                                 
HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 90 DEGS F THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WILL                
THEN INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE LOWER 90S AND CLIMBING TO             
THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN THE WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE                
LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST DESERT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER             
AT KTUS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR                
     SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.                        
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH AZZ019-029>035 (NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY...              
     SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY...UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY (GRAHAM                   
     COUNTY)...WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...TOHONO OODHAM NATION...EASTERN             
     PIMA COUNTY...SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND COCHISE COUNTY) UNTIL 8 PM             
     MST SATURDAY EVENING.                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MOLLERE                                                                         
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
940 AM MST FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA                  
FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                             
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ARIZONA AS A LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND THE              
AFTERNOON HEATING...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON           
...TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY              
RAIN...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...THAT COULD RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF. FAR              
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ARE LESS LIKELY TO HAVE              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE               
FOR LATE JULY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A DRIER FLOW ALOFT FROM THE                 
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER WEATHER AND A DECREASE IN                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                         
EARLY MORNING SATL AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATED THE CONTINUING PRECIP              
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...MOSTLY DUE TO THE INVERTED               
TROUGH THAT WAS WELL-INITIALIZED BY MODELS. GFS AT 06Z PUT THE                  
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN NM...AND FORECASTS A POSITION              
OVER SOUTHEAST AZ TONIGHT. IN FACT A CLOSED LOW AT 700 AND 500MB                
SETS UP BETWEEN DOUGLAS AND SHOW LOW AT 12Z. NOT OVER CNTRL AND WRN             
ARIZONA. BUT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT AS A              
500-300MB JET SETS UP OVER SOUTH-CNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.           
LATEST RUC SHOWS A VORT LOBE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE PARENT              
LOW AT 15Z...AND DROPS THIS SYSTEM TO A PARKER-PHOENIX-SHOW LOW LINE            
BY 00Z. THE OTHER INGREDIENT THAT IS A BIG PLAYER IS PRECIP WATER.              
12Z RAOBS HAVE ALL SHOWN A DECREASE IN PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM 24              
HOURS AGO. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW CALL FOR RAMPING UP THE P-WATER FOR              
THE PHOENIX AREA...LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONGER UVV COMING INTO THE               
CWA LATER TODAY. DEW POINTS STILL VERY HIGH...AND 850MB DP OF 18C               
PER MODEL SOUNDING COULD SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL-SEVERE STORMS. I LIKE            
THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ON LATEST SPC CONV OUTLOOK SINCE WE HAVE              
ALREADY SEEN SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...PER SFC OBS AT LUKE AND KPHX.              
HARD TO SAY IF THE CAP AT ABOUT 18K FEET WILL BE BROKEN...AND IF IT             
HEATS UP SUFFICIENTLY...TO WARRANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.  AT                
THIS POINT I DOUBT IT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                
GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WESTERLIES MAKING AN INTRUSION INTO THE               
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE COASTAL             
STATES. HOWEVER...IT IS TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER MOISTURE DECREASE              
FROM THE WEST. BESIDES THE SLOW DOWNTREND IN                                    
MOISTURE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TENDS NOT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR               
STORMS ON THE LOWER DESERTS. A CAVEAT WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN            
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME DYNAMICAL INFLUENCE. WITH                   
SIMILAR MODEL TRENDS...ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND CONTINUE TO              
SHOW DOWNTREND IN POPS AND CLOUDS AND MORE DIURNAL SPREAD IN THE                
TEMPERATURES WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
18Z TAFS ADEQUATELY DEPICT EXPECTED WEATHER. SEE TAFS                           
PHXTAFPHX...PHXTAFIWA...PHXTAFYUM...LAXTAFBLH AND LAXTAFIPL FOR MORE            
DETAILED INFORMATION.                                                           
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST                  
     ARIZONA EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING THE            
     GREATER PHOENIX AREA...ZONES 21 THROUGH 24 AND 26 THROUGH 28...            
     TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                     
CA...NONE                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT                          
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX                                                             
SIPPLE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
210 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON FOCUS ON HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO              
NEXT WEEK AND WHEN THE HEAT WAVE MIGHT BREAK.                                   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
CURRENT PACKAGE HAS POPS IN SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                 
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS DOWN AND ATMOSPHERE CAPPED SO FAR THIS                   
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS HAS FINAL SHORTWAVE NOW CROSSING              
INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HEADING TOWARD AREA. DO NOT WANT TO PULL                
POPS COMPLETELY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE BUT WILL DOWNPLAY BY            
REDUCING ALL AREAS TO SLIGHT CHANCE.                                            
FOG WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE QUANTITY            
OF WATER WE HAVE HAD...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEARING.                              
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS BEGIN TO CLIMB AS MID-LEVEL RIDGE               
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTENSIFIES. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE                  
NORMALS SATURDAY AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES BETWEEN 29/00Z              
AND 30/00Z.                                                                     
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY                                       
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING OVER REGION WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST             
FLOW ENHANCING DEW POINTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  BY SUNDAY                     
AFTERNOON...850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH 25C. WITH NEARLY DRY              
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE...TEMPS MAY REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S SUNDAY AND            
MONDAY.  AN ISOLATED TRIPLE DIGIT READING MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE.                 
WITH DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S...HEAT INDICES WILL CLOSE               
IN ON THE 105 DEGREE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE             
TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AND ASSESS WHETHER AN ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED            
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. GFS REMAINS A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS            
RIDGE THAN THE PREFERRED ECMWF AND THIS SHOULD GIVE THE REGION TEMPS            
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CURRENT MAV/MEX GUIDANCE                                         
AS THE WEEK PROCEEDS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT                
EAST ALLOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN MEAN CLOUD COVER AND A DECREASE IN             
HIGHS. COMPARED TO THE 27/00Z RUNS...THE 28/00Z RUNS OF ECMWF AND               
GFS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE COLD FRONT THAT            
SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE VERY HOT CONDITIONS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED            
TO APPROACH THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA               
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY AND              
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BARKER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE AND SVR POTENTIAL.            
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                  
THROUGH THE WRN GRT LAKES BTWN THE DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL RDG OVER THE            
SW AND A TROF OVER HUDSON BAY. MOST SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS             
LOCATED WELL TO THE W FROM SRN SASK INTO NRN MT. AT THE SFC(18Z)...A            
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN. TEMPS              
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MUCH OF THE W HLF OF UPR MI                
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S LEADING TO MLCAPES AOA 2K J/KG. LAKE              
SUPERIOR BREEZE BNDRY HAS ALREADY TRIGGERED TSTMS OVER N CNTRL UPR              
MI WHILE ISOLD TSRA HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED BTWN KMQT AND KIMT.                     
IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING TSMS OVER W AND CNTRL UPR MI                         
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO ALSO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM                 
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WITH STORMS MOVING INTO UPPER                    
MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO AN MCS WITH GREATER COVERAGE.             
FAVORABLE 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE WILL BE            
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING                  
WINDS. THE RELATIVELY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 15K FT WILL BE                   
UNFAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP                 
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES.              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH WARM FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE             
AREA AND AXIS OF FRONT STILL IN QUESTION COULDN'T JUSTIFY CHANGING              
GOING WX. ALTHOUGH GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER 850 HPA TEMPS I DID DROP               
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON SAT AND SUN. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE DECIDING            
FACTOR THOUGH AS MORE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED COULD EASILY BUST THE                
FORECAST. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS                   
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S. AGAIN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY              
MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL PROVE TO DICTATE HIGHS...THOUGH GIVEN DPTS IN              
MID TO UPPER 60S...90 DEGRESS VS. 95 DEGREES WILL STILL FEEL                    
MISERABLE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EASILY INTO THE 90S AND                  
POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 100. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS DECIDE WHETHER OR NOT             
TO ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT.                                        
MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LEFT WEATHER FORECAST THE SAME FOR            
MON AND TUE. COOL FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH CWA SOMETIME             
TUE AFTN. ON WED 850-500 HPA DIV Q FIELDS/500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS                  
INDICATE STRONG AREA OF LIFT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH              
STRONG LOW PRES TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. PUT IN 30 POPS                  
TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                                       
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE               
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. BROUGHT DPTS DOWN A BIT AS IT LOOKS LIKE             
DECENT MIXING...TO 70 TO 80 HPA...COULD TAKE PLACE PER GFS                      
SOUNDINGS. DIDN'T GO AS DRY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATED BUT KEPT DPTS IN             
THE MID 50S. CAN DEFINATELY SEE THESE GO LOWER EVEN INTO THE UPPER              
40S...BUT WITH NW FLOW...NOT EXPECTING ADDTIONAL DRYING DUE TO                  
TOPOGRAPHY. WITH DPTS AS THEY ARE CAN GET RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S            
AND LOW 30S...HOWEVER WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN WINDS SHOULD BE                    
INSIGNIFICANT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS                      
EVENING FOR MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ005-MIZ006-MIZ007-MIZ009-                   
MIZ010-MIZ011-MIZ012-MIZ013-MIZ014-MIZ084-MIZ085.                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(SHORT TERM)                                                                 
DJP(LONG TERM)                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
258 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE             
WILL HOLD IN PLACE OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE            
AXIS WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS BY                   
SATURDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL                   
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF MOVING TO THE                   
WEST-NORTHWEST. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE               
ON THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED 50H VORTICITY MAXIMUM WHILE THE               
GFS AND NAM DO NOT. CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THIS FEATURE INTO              
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THE COASTAL BEND ON SATURDAY.                  
GOES SOUNDER IMAGES DOES NOT INDICATE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS                 
WEAK DISTURBANCE. SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE                   
NORTHERN COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO                
VICTORIA CROSSROADS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE                    
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND WINDS                
WILL CONTINUE TO ABATE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCEC RANGE OVER THE BAYS INTO                
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO                
REMAIN AT SCEC RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE                  
TO RELAX OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH               
CENTRAL GULF BUILDS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD SATURDAY.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THE                   
EVENING HOURS. WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW NOT QUITE AS STRONG...DO NOT                 
EXPECT STRATUS DECK WILL BE AFFECTING AS MUCH AN AREA AS THIS                   
MORNING. PATCHY STRATUS/FOG WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS                  
FROM 08-14Z FOR THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS FROM ALI TO VCT.                      
VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGD             
TO BE IN CONTROL SUN THROUGH WED LEADING TO A DRIER AND                         
SLIGHTLY WARMER ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE               
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE NE CWA FOR ISOL "STREAMER" SHRA'S             
IN THE MORNINGS AND AN ISOL TSRA OR TWO ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA                 
BREEZE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT                
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. THEREFORE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES COOLER AND 20 POPS WILL EXTEND FARTHER S AND W THU THRU FRI.            
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUN THROUGH WED            
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND AND MARINE ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE               
DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE GRADIENT RELAXES THE LATTER PART OF              
THE WEEK AS A "COLD" FRONT MOVES INTO N TX. CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD               
HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS AND ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  94  75  94  77  /  10  20  10  10  10                     
VICTORIA          76  93  74  94  75  /  10  20  10  20  10                     
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  80  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ALICE             75  98  74  98  76  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
ROCKPORT          80  91  80  93  79  /  10  20  10  20  10                     
COTULLA           76 101  75 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
KINGSVILLE        77  95  75  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TMT/89...SHORT-TERM                                                             
TE/81...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
147 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE SORTH WAVE PUSHING               
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK WILL LOWER CEILINGS IN THE NORTHERN COUNTY                
WARNING AREA. THE BEST CHANE FOR RAIN AT A TAF SITE WILL BE FOR                 
LWB AND LYH. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z. BY THEN               
THE SHORT WAVE COMING INTO THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BE IN              
SOUTHWEST VIRGNIA. RAIN WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS                 
THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR                        
VISIBILITIES WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 1127 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE THERE HAS                
BEEN AMPLE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OR NORTH                  
CAROLINA WHERE MSAS IS SHOWING LIFTED INDEX VALUES ALREADY DOWN TO              
-6. SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF ARKANSAS WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN                 
COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE RAISED THE CHANCE OF RAIN                
IN THE EAST BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MODIFIED GSO                 
SOUNDING. ALSO INCREASED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY SLIGHTLY                
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.                                                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 635 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT                
24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES.             
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDS TODAY BUT WITH A GOOD 10 KT WIND FROM              
THE WSW. TNGT SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS COULD PREVAIL IN THE WEST                
ESP LATE.                                                                       
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 253 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
STILL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW BUT PROGRESSIVE TROF AXIS MOVING                     
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THRU SATURDAY BUT THINGS                 
HAVE SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. BEST CHCS OF RAIN/TSTMS              
WILL MOVE NOT INTO THE WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY           
DUE TO VORTICITY ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE...NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN             
TENNESSEE...THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN SLOPES. EASTERN                
SECTIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH LACK OF TRIGGERS AND                 
WARM TEMPS ALOFT CUTTING DOWN ON INSTABILITY.                                   
TROPICAL VORT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA (AT LEAST IN              
THE WEST) SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MODELS HANDLING ITS               
PROGRESS QUITE DIFFERENTLY...AS THEY HAVE ALL WEEK. THEN AS THE                 
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST OVER THE                 
WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL BE DROPPING DOWN IN THE NW FLOW                
ALOFT AND COULD BRING SOME MCS ACTIVITY DOWN OUR WAY. VERY                      
DIFFICULT LATELY TO TIME THE WAVES OR GET ANY GOOD RESOLUTION SO                
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                   
MAYBE JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT UPWARD IN GENERAL. LATEST GFS IS                 
TRENDING DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPR RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF              
OVER THE EAST. HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE WIDELY SCTD                        
CONVECTION EACH DAY. POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH RIGHT NOW FOR THAT                  
PERIOD...BUT WILL LEAVE ALONE. VERY WARM THRU THE PERIOD WITH HEAT              
INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 AT TIMES.                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 120 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA TONIGHT TO KEEP FOG LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA.            
IF FOG DOES FORM...IT SHOULD BE MVFR AND PATCHY AT BEST.                        
LOW LEVEL JET (25-30 KTS) TO INCREASE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL              
DISTURBANCE LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS TO LOWER AND THICKEN DURING THE             
DAY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 22Z FRI IN SE WV                 
(BLF/LWB). CONVECTION ELSEWHERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SAT.                
KDAN ASOS EXPERIENCING COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS...THEREFORE AMD NOT               
SKED.                                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 854 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
SHRA/TSRA REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS IN                    
BETWEEN WEAK S/W OVER EASTERN NC AND MAIN CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEP RH              
WITH FRONT TO THE NW. ALSO INSTABILITY NOT TOO GREAT ATTM OVER THE              
REGION DESPITE MOIST PWATS OFF 00Z RAOBS...SO APPEARS WITHOUT MUCH              
FOCUS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SHRA FADE OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF                     
HEATING. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST WRF/RUC WHICH HAS THE REGION                  
BASICALLY DRY AFTER 01-03Z SO PLAN TO CUT OUT MOST POPS WITH THE                
EVENING UPDATE. HOWEVER SINCE CANT RULE OUT AN OLD OUTFLOW POPPING              
A FEW SHRA SE WVA ZONES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL LEAVE               
IN A 20/30 POP THERE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG AROUND ESPCLY              
VALLEYS WITH LOW TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN LESS DEBRIS              
AC/CI AROUND.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 309 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...                                                         
CONVECTION SCATTERED ACROSS THE SW/SRN CWA WILL DRIFT EAST THROUGH              
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY LIES EAST OF THE                    
CWA...SO WILL PUT CHANCE POPS OVER TOWARD HALIFAX TO BUCKINGHAM                 
COUNTY EARLY...WITH CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH UPSTREAM STORMS               
OVER THE OH VLY...MORE SCT IN ERN KY. PRETTY MUCH DIURNAL NATURE                
WITH CONVECTING DYING OFF LATE EVENING. KEPT VERY LOW CHANCE IN                 
FAR NRN GREENBRIER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE ERN PA                       
OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE...SO LEFT THEM                 
OUT OF GRIDS...AS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT              
IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS TO THE NORTH/NW.                                        
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
FRIDAY WILL BE HOTTER..ESPECIALLY EAST...AS FLOW SPEEDS UP FROM                 
THE WEST. STRONGER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS               
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SO RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE FAR                     
WEST...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE WAVE                  
THROUGH FASTER THAN NAM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT. TOOK A BLEND                     
APPROACH...WHICH KEEPS CHANCE POPS INTO FRIDAY EVENING...THEN MORE              
DIURNAL LOOK WITH CHANCE WEST/SLIGHT CHANCE EAST SATURDAY                       
AFTN...WITH MINIMAL POPS IN THE WEST SAT NIGHT.                                 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST SUNDAY                        
AFTN...THINKING GFS MAY BE BETTER THAN NAM IN DEPICTING PRECIP HERE.            
FOR THE LONGER RANGE...SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP US IN TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH MAIN                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH...WITH RIDGE DOMINATING            
THE SOUTHEAST. SO EXPECT THE DAILY THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED OR                    
SCATTERED STORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE HOT              
HUMID DAYS...AND MUGGY NIGHTS.                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 03Z            
TONIGHT. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR WITH ANY OF THE                 
STORMS. DUE TO SURFACE DEW POINTS AND RAIN FROM THIS AFTERNOON                  
FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.                    
HOWEVER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT              
WILL KEEP THE VISIBILITY AT LWB IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.                           
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va