AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1010 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2001                                                     
...UPDATED TO DECREASE WINDS INLAND AND ADD SHOWERS TO THE NW CWA...            
TWO QUESTIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.  FIRST IS WILL THE 25 TO             
40 DBZ SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN BE ABLE TO              
RESULT IN SHOWERS ON THE GROUND IN OUR NW CWA?  THE SECOND QUESTION             
IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE WINDS INLAND?  WE HAD BREEZY WORDING IN THE              
OVERNIGHT ZONES... AND GIVEN THE 35 TO 50 KNOTS SHOWN BY 00Z DTX/APX            
AND GRB SOUNDINGS...PLUS THE VAD WIND BETWEEN 1000 AND 3000 FT ABOVE            
GROUND LEVEL...THAT MAKES SOME SENSE. HOWEVER MOST INLAND STATIONS              
HAVE WINDS BELOW 20 MPH.                                                        
AS FOR THE FIRST QUESTION...THE SHOWERS OVER THE NW CWA TONIGHT...              
THE DTX/GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY BELOW 750 MB.                      
HOWEVER... APX AND GRB ARE VERY MOIST ABOVE THAT LEVEL.  THE 00Z RUC            
AND ETA BOTH SHOW STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERNIGHT. THE AREA OF               
BEST ASCENT IS OVER NRN LK MICHIGAN AND NRN LWR MICHIGAN.  THAT IS              
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO             
MO.  ALSO AT 00Z... ERN WI...NRN LK MICHIGAN AND NRN LWR MI WERE IN             
AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE... BETWEEN THE DEPARTING POLAR               
JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE INCOMING SOUTHERN STREAM JET FROM THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.             
IF THERE WERE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB...                
SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WOULD LIKELY REACH THE                 
GROUND AND RESULT IN SHOWERS OVER OUR NW CWA.  HOWEVER... THE                   
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE ABOVE 100 MB (THROUGH 700 MB)                
OVER MOST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.  EVEN WITH THE IMPRESSIVE ASCENT                
GOING ON OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN THOSE SHOWERS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME             
REACHING THE GROUND THROUGH THAT.  THE 1000/700 MEAN RH STAYS BELOW             
40 PERCENT OF MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.  THE EXTREME NW             
CWA DOES SEE 50 TO 60 PCT 1000/700 MEAN RH VALUES BY 12Z.                       
HOWEVER... BY THEN... THE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND BEST                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GRR CWA.  IT                 
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST LAYER ARE                
ABOVE 6C/KM.  ALL OF THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE SHOWERS WILL                  
MOSTLY NOT REACH THE GROUND OVER THE GRR CWA OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...             
THEY ARE TO CLOSE FOR COMFORT SO I PUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NW            
CWA ANYWAY.                                                                     
AS FOR THE WIND ISSUE... WE HAVE WARM ADVECTION GOING ON OVERNIGHT.             
NOT ONLY THAT... LOOKING AT THE SOUTH BUOY... THE AIR TEMPERATURE AT            
THE BUOY WAS WARMER THAN THE LAKE TEMPERATURE (00Z). THUS THE WINDS             
ARE NOT MIXING DOWN WELL.  I DO NOT SEE THEM MIXING DOWN WELL                   
EITHER... EVEN THOUGH THE GRR VAD SHOWED 50 KNOTS AT 3000 FT AROUND             
0300Z.   THERE IS A CHANCE... OVER THE NRN CWA... WERE THE SHOWERS              
ARE MOSTLY ALOFT...THAT SOME OF THAT COULD MIX DOWN IN A DOWNBURST...           
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.                                                   
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001                                                     
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE...NRLY                 
ZONAL FLOW ACROS NRN TIER OF CONUS WITH TENDENCY FOR RDGING IN THE E            
AND TROFFING OUT W. A SHRTWV APRNT OVR THE NRN PLAINS...AND THERE IS            
992MB SFC LO PRES MOVG INTO NW MN. PACIFIC COLD FNT EXTENDS S FM SFC            
LO INTO THE SCNTRL PLAINS. TEMP CONTRAST ACRS THIS BNDRY IS                     
MINIMAL...SO FNT IS ALMOST MORE OF A PRES TROF. A STRG PRES GRADIENT            
BTWN THE LO AND HI PRES OVR THE ERN ZNS...AND THE STRG SW WND HAS               
ADVCTD UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR INTO THE CWA S OF WARM FNT STRETCHING              
ACRS NCNTRL LK SUP. TEMPS AT 02Z MAINLY THE MILD 50S. MPX/GRB RAOBS             
SHOW 32KT WNDS AS LOW AS 2K FT MSL/59KTS AT 5K FT MSL. BUT LLVL                 
STABILITY IN WAD PATTERN PREVENTING FULL MIXING OF WNDS TO SFC AS               
H85 TEMPS 11C/13C AT GRB/INL...GUSTS TO ARND 20KTS. SFC OBS/IR SAT              
PIX INDICATE ABUNDANT MID/HI IN SWLY FLOW AHD OF PLAINS LOW                     
PRES...BUT VERY DRY AIR IN THE SFC-7 LYR PER 00Z RAOBS HAS KEPT LOW             
CLD/PCPN NRLY NON EXISTANT. IN FACT...SFC DWPTS GENERALLY IN MID 40S            
ACRS CWA ATTM...BUT FALL TO THE UPR 30S/LO 40S IN UPSTREAM AREAS OF             
SRN WI. ONLY NRBY RPRTS OF RA LAST FEW HRS N OF SFC WARM IN MN                  
ARROWHEAD AND ACRS NE WI UNDER A BIT HIER REFLECTIVITY RETURNS WHERE            
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS A PATCH OF HIER H7 RH. AIR EVEN DRIER ACRS               
THE PLAINS...WHERE MID/HI CLD THINS OUT OVR PACIFIC COLD FNT.                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE PSBL WNDS/-SHRA/TEMPS.                              
00Z RUC MODEL SHOWS SFC LO CONTG NE OVRNGT AND DEEPENING TO 986MB AS            
IT REACHES SW ONTARIO TOWARD DAWN. PACIFIC COLD FNT PROGGED TO PASS             
IWD JUST BEFORE 12Z. H5 SHRTWV WL MOVE INTO MN OVRNGT. ASSOCIATED               
PRES FALLS NW OF CWA IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV/LO SHARPEN PRES GRADIENT              
OVR CWA...AND H925 WNDS INCREASE TO 40 KTS OVRNGT. ALTHOUGH LLVL                
STABILITY WL PREVENT FULL MIXING...XPCT WNDS TO INCRS ENUF TO                   
JUSTIFY FCST OF BECMG BREEZY. RUC SHOWS DCRSG MEAN H85-5 RH OVRNGT              
WITH SFC-H7 DRY ADVCTN/MSTR DVGC GREATLY WEAKENING ISENTROPIC LIFT              
IN WARM SECTOR. ONLY WEAK MSTR CNVGC NOTED ALG COLD FNT THAT REACHES            
IWD LATE. UPR DVGC AHD OF SHRTWV WEAK AS WELL AS CWA FALLS INTO                 
UNFVRBL RIGHT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX. RUC GENERATES QPF ONLY             
OVR SE ZNS IN ADVANCE OF HIER MSTR AREA NOW CAUSING SOME -RA OVR NE             
WI AND SHOWS HIER H7 RH EXITING ERN CWA BY 09Z. QUICK LOOK AT 00Z               
ETA CONFIRMS THIS FCST. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PCPN LOOKS UNLIKELY OVR             
THE NW. REMOVED MENTION OF -SHRA XCPT IN SE ZNS...WHERE HIER                    
REFLECTIVITIES APRCHG. MADE SOME CHGS TO THE SECOND PD AS WELL BASED            
ON 00Z ETA FCST FOR WEAK SHRTWV IN CNTRL PLAINS REINVIGORATING HIER             
MSTR ACRS THE SE DURG THE MRNG BEFORE PULLING OFF IN THE AFTN. SO               
PULLED ALL MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE NW TMRW AS WELL WITH CHCY POPS               
ACRS THE SE. WITH INCRSG WND SPEED...XPCT LTL DROPOFF IN PRESENT                
TEMPS OVRNGT EVEN WITH WEAK DRY ADVCTN. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS             
UP FOR MINS BASED ON CURRENT RDGS AND INCRSG WND.                               
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS:                                               
PROBABLY MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE THE WINDS AS LOW PRES MOVES INTO              
WESTERN ONTARIO AND DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY THU AFTN. GRADIENT SFC                 
WINDS SHOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WITH BL WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING             
AS LOW DEEPENS. CONCERN HERE IS THAT INITIALLY TMRW MORNING THRU                
EARLY AFTN...WINDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DUE STABLE LAYER AS             
H8 TEMPS WARM TO +9C. HOWEVER...AFTER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU              
AFTERNOON CAUSING DRY AIR ADVECTION AND CAA...WINDS COULD BE ABLE TO            
MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AND OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA             
AS H8 TEMPS RAPIDLY DROP TO 0C AND BELOW BY FRI MORNING. WITH THE               
SOUTHWEST WINDS...THE WESTERN LAKE AND KEWEENAW WILL BE THE                     
FAVORABLE AREAS FOR WINDY CONDITIONS WITH CHANELLING OVER WESTERN               
LAKE AND THE CHANELLING NR THE KEWEENAW. WILL THEREFORE GO WINDY                
OVER KEWEENAW AND KEEP REMAINDER OF FA BREEZY. MAY HAVE TO GO WINDY             
OVER GOG/ONT ZONE...IF INVERSION DOES NOT SET UP LIKE MODEL                     
SOUNDINGS AND BUFKIT SUGGESTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP BRZY. OTHER THAN             
THE WIND...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLR WITH FA IN DRY SLOT BEHIND SHORT             
WAVE.                                                                           
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO            
SUBSIDE LATE AS LOW PRES FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. WILL BE SOME                
CLDS AROUND AS UPR GREAT LAKES SEES SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN                
CCB. NO MODEL IS INDICATING ANY UVM OR ISENTROPIC LIFT IN WRAP                  
AROUND AREA THIS FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP FA DRY. H8-LAKE DELTA-T               
VALUES RISE TO NEAR 10C...NOT ENOUGH TO GET PCPN BUT PROBABLY ENOUGH            
TO GET SOME CLDS. BIG CHANGE WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FROM              
THURSDAY AS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ON FRI IN CAA REGIME.               
ETA MIGHT BE OVERDOING THE CAA JUST A BIT WITH 850MB TEMPS LOWERING             
TO -4C. LIKE AVN H8 TEMPS BETTER ESPECIALLY SINCE FLOW WILL REMAIN              
SOMEWHAT ZONAL. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRI AS                
WIND SHOULD KEEP LOWER ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT MIXED.                               
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING                
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. STARTING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS                
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. MRF/AVN CONTINUE TO SHOW A                
BRIEF INTRUSION OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE UPR GREAT LAKES WITH                   
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. SPAGHETTI CHARTS FROM PSU             
ENSEMBLE WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT COLD INTRUSION WILL BE FAST WITH                 
MODEST HEIGHT RISES BY MONDAY. 850MB-LAKE DELTA-T VALUES LOWER TO               
13C PER MRF...SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE ENHANCED                
PCPN LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE             
AREA. SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO ANY PCPN WILL BE ON BACK             
SIDE OF SFC FRONT WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH AND ANY LK ENHANCEMENT. NO            
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WILL KEEP MONDAY              
DRY AS MRF/AVN/CAN MODELS ALL POINT TO WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER UPR             
MS VALLEY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED IN ZONAL FLOW AS ANOTHER WEAK               
SHORT WAVE RIDES TO THE NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE             
STARVED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY...WITH BEST MOISTURE ON             
THE BACK SIDE. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WED AS ANOTHER                      
SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...MOVES            
THROUGH THE AREA WED. WILL KEEP MILD TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WITH                 
ZONAL FLOW CAUSING COLD AIR TO BE TRAPPED IN NRN CANADA WITH NO                 
MECHANISM TO BE PULLED SWD. COLDEST AIR FOR THE NEXT TEN DAYS LOOKS             
TO BE BEHIND THE SFC FRONT ON THU. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT WARM-UPS            
OR COOL-OFFS DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW.                   
COORD WITH APX...THANKS.                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
930 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001                                                      
KAPX 88D SHOWING A BAND OF ECHOES GENERALLY ALONG-NORTH OF AN LDM-APN           
LINE...MAINLY AOB 30DBZ WITH A FEW POCKETS 35-40 DBZ OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.        
UPSTREAM RADARS ALSO SHOWING SCATTERED RETURNS ACROSS WI.  PRECIP HAS           
BEEN MAINLY LIGHT WITH NOT A LOT REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH TVC HAS           
PICKED UP SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  RAINFALL THE RESULT OF MID            
LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND AIDED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING              
ACROSS WI...AS WELL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SEVERAL LIGHTNING          
STRIKES ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THOSE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.             
APX 00Z SOUNDING SATURATED ABOVE 660MB...THEN DRIES OUT BELOW WITH DEW          
POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 10C.  GRB SOUNDING SIMILAR THOUGH WITH MORE               
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  SHARP DRYING ON IR IMAGERY WEST OF THE           
MISSISSIPPI ALSO EVIDENT IN MPX/OAX/DVN RAOBS.                                  
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT DEALS WITH HOW TO WORD THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.          
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON GRB SOUNDING SEEMS TO BE THE KEY AS TO WHICH              
AREAS LIKELY TO SEE WHAT LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS OUT THERE.          
ISENTROPIC PROGS FROM THE 18Z ETA/00Z RUC BOTH SUGGEST NORTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA (NORTH OF M-32) WILL SEE MOIST LAYER FALL             
BELOW 750MB AND THUS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.  18Z            
ETA WAS A LITTLE DRY AS WELL OVER NORTHEAST WI AROUND 850MB...SO SOME           
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING LIKELY TO OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL                   
SUGGESTS.  BOTTOM LINE...WILL SPREAD CURRENT MENTION OF SCATTERED               
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FARTHER EAST...MAINLY NORTH OF AN MBL-APN LINE.               
SOUTH OF THAT LINE WILL MENTION JUST SPRINKLES AS PER GOING FORECAST.           
CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER GIVEN EARLIER ACTIVITY...BUT WON'T           
ADD TO FORECAST ATTM SINCE IT'S BEEN QUIET OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.         
WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEED FORECASTS...GIVEN EVAPORATING          
PRECIP LIKELY TO PULL DOWN SOME STRONGER GUSTS AT TIMES.  TEMPERATURES          
WILL ALSO NEED UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS AS READINGS HAVE BEEN GOING UP ALL            
EVENING UNDER THE CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS.  ATTM...PLAN TO WORD         
AS STEADY/SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT AS CURRENT TREND NOT LIKELY TO                
CHANGE.                                                                         
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT AROUND 0315Z.                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1030 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001                                                     
ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN            
LAKE HURON LATE THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE COLDEST               
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFTING NE            
OUT OF THE AREA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND             
ALSO WITH THE LATEST ETA/RUC MODEL PRECIPITATION OUTPUT. BASED ON               
EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR ECHOES...WHICH INCLUDE SOME NEWLY DEVELOPED              
SHOWERS OVER E WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN -- HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO DELAY              
THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.                                             
THESE NEW SHOWERS TO THE WEST APPEAR HIGHLY CONVECTIVE -- BASED ON              
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND FACT THAT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN             
DETECTED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN! THEY ARE LIKELY THE RESULT OF             
DIFFERENTIAL DRYING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...WHICH IS              
CAUSING AN INCREASE/RELEASE OF ELEVATED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.                  
WILL FRESHEN UP FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TOWARD NOON TO REFLECT                      
PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND ALSO TO ADDRESS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES               
(THOUGH GOING HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS GENERALLY LOOK IN LINE).               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL/NORTHEAST SOUTH               
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
915 AM CST WED OCT 31 2001                                                      
MID AND HI CLOUDS CONTINUE STREAMING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE               
NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A PAC SHORT WAVE AND                      
ASSOCIATED SFC FNT. LATEST RUC AGREES WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN               
MOVING FNT ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.            
SHORT WAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH ZONAL FLOW                
DVLPG IN ITS WAKE. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE WINDS INCREASING AS THE               
FNT PASSES WITH TEMPS WARMING JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH FNT. THIS SEEMS            
REASONABLE GIVEN POTENTIAL MIXING AND ADIABATIC WARMING. WILL NEED TO           
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND CLEAN UP WIND WORDING A BIT THOUGH.             
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
FAUCETTE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1136 AM CST WED OCT 31 2001                                                     
UPDATED DISC...                                                                 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE              
FURTHER INLAND THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE           
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN COUNTIES ADJACENT THE COASTAL AREAS.                        
PREV DISC...                                                                    
COASTAL TROUGH WAS AFFECTING SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY              
FOG TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF THE BOUNDARY.  FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY CONCERNS TIMING OF THE FOG           
LIFTING...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND             
AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES.  COASTAL WATERS ARE                  
LOOKING AT SWELLS CAUSED IN PART FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL                   
DEPRESSION 15 OVER THE CARRIBEAN.                                               
12Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN              
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE FEEL                
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...                
CURRENT RUC KEEPS THIS FEATURE IN PLACE TODAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD             
GET A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND FEEL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON             
TRACK IN THAT REGARD.  WILL UP THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCEC BEYOND                
20 NM TO DEAL WITH THE SWELLS...MAY NEED TO UP TO A SCA LATER TODAY.            
WILL NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST.                               
PL-40                                                                           
43                                                                              
.HGX...SCEC 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.              
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 080/060 083/063 085 000                                                  
IAH BB 079/061 082/064 085 -00                                                  
GLS BB 075/068 079/070 081 100                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1045 AM CST WED OCT 31 2001                                                     
SHORT TERM...ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED NW INTO THE BRO VICINITY             
THIS MORNING.  THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO FIRING IN THE RETURNING LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NW IN THE LOW LEVEL SE FLOW.  IN                       
ADDITION...RUC DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS 5H RIDGING PREVAILING               
OVER THE BIG BEND AREA WITH A CLOSED LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                   
MEXICO.  MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS IN             
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX.  A               
POCKET OF 5H VORTICITY REMAINS ELONGATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE            
AND ONE LOBE OF THE VORTICITY EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER TX              
COASTLINE.  AS A RESULT OF THIS LOBE OF VORTICITY...THESE SHOWERS               
WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG THE LOWER TX COASTLINE.                             
THE CURRENT ZFP REFLECTS THIS PRETTY WELL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT                   
CHANGES REQUIRED.                                                               
MARINE...BUOY020 CURRENTLY IS REPORTING SWELLS FROM 6 TO 7 FT WITH A            
SE FLOW NEAR 10 KTS.  THE LIGHT SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE               
DAY WHICH WILL NOT BUILD SWELLS MUCH HIGHER.  HAVE ADJUSTED THE                 
CURRENT CWF TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION.                             
SYNOPTIC-AVIATION-MARINE...60/MESO...WATKINS                                    
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
929 AM CST WED OCT 31 2001                                                      
COASTAL TROUGH WAS AFFECTING SE TX THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY              
FOG TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH             
OF THE BOUNDARY.  FORECAST CHALLENGE EARLY CONCERNS TIMING OF THE FOG           
LIFTING...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND             
AFTERNOON SKY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES.  COASTAL WATERS ARE                  
LOOKING AT SWELLS CAUSED IN PART FROM THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL                   
DEPRESSION 15 OVER THE CARRIBEAN.                                               
12Z CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN              
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH IN PLACE FEEL                
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...                
CURRENT RUC KEEPS THIS FEATURE IN PLACE TODAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD             
GET A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND FEEL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON             
TRACK IN THAT REGARD.  WILL UP THE COASTAL WATERS TO SCEC BEYOND                
20 NM TO DEAL WITH THE SWELLS...MAY NEED TO UP TO A SCA LATER TODAY.            
WILL NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST.                               
PL-40                                                                           
43                                                                              
.HGX...SCEC 20 TO 60 NM HIGH ISLAND TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL.              
PRELIMS...                                                                      
CLL BB 080/060 083/063 085 000                                                  
IAH BB 079/061 082/064 085 -00                                                  
GLS BB 075/068 079/070 081 100                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
410 AM CST THU NOV 1 2001                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE INCREASING WINDS AND SML THREAT OF -SHRA             
FIRST PD.  PACIFIC TROUGH VCNTY OF KSTC TO KRWF MOVING SLOWLY EWD.              
SLY WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH HAVE PULLED 50 TO 55 DEGREE DEWPTS IN SRN             
MN AND MSAS SHOWING INCREASING THETA-E RDG INTO FAR SRN MN...AND                
ISOLATED CELLS TO 35 DBZ SHOWING UP VCNTY OF KAEL LAST HOUR.  -SHRA             
SPREADING NE...AIDED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FM LEFT EXIT RGN OF 70            
KT JET.  FORCING ALSO AIDING PERSISTENT ISOLATED-SCT -SHRA OVR WEST             
CENTRAL MN...EXTENDING FM NEAR KLXL TO KMML.  THIS AREA OF -SHRA                
LINING UP WELL WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS ON ETA 300                 
THETA SFC...BUT BOTH ETA/AVN/RUC SHOWING AREA DECREASING THRU 12Z.              
HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY SHOWING SLIGHT COOLING IN CLOUD TOPS OVR WEST              
CENTRAL MN...WHICH MAY BE HINTING AT -SHRA PERSISTING A BIT LONGER              
THAN EXPCD.  HENCE WL ADD MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA EARLY MOST                     
CENTRAL/ERN ZONES AND REMOVE AS NECESSARY.                                      
AVN AGAIN SHOWING BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO MID LEVEL                  
FEATURES AT 24 HOURS WHILE ETA SLOWING UPPER LOW IN SRN CAN TO AVN              
SOLUTION.  HOWEVER BOTH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SO WENT WITH A              
BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  SANGSTER WINDS UPSTREAM IN 25 TO              
35 KT RANGE WITH 40KTS BEGINNING TO PUSH ACRS US/CAN BORDER INTO NRN            
MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PUSH OF COLDER AIR ASSOCD WITH S/W                       
CIRCULATION DEPICTED NICELY ON WV IMAGERY IN SERN SASK.  4 MB MSAS              
PRES RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND POLAR FRONT WHILE 2 MB PRES RISES IN              
DAKOTAS BEHIND PACIFIC FRONT.  STRONGEST PRES RISES TO RMN IN SRN               
CAN NEXT THRU 00Z WITH WEAKER RISES INTO WRN PTNS OF MN THIS AFTN.              
ETA BUFKIT DATA SHOWS LOWER PORTIONS OF SOUNDING AT KAXN NEARLY DRY             
ADIABATIC...TAPPING AIR UP TO 5K FT.  POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF            
35 TO 38KTS THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY MEETING WIND ADVY CRITERIA IN WRN              
CWA.  PER COORD WITH KABR/KFGF...WL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADVY AND LET            
DAYTIME SHIFT TAKE SECOND LOOK AS STRONGEST WINDS EXPCD THIS AFTN.              
WL MENTION POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 33KTS IN ZONES HOWEVER.                      
POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AS A RESULT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY BRUSH NRN            
AREAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER JET AXIS SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL MN TNGT INTO               
FRI WITH DRY AIR SETTLING INTO PLACE.  HENCE M/S WORDING LOOKS GOOD.            
LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR FIRST PD WITH GUIDANCE              
NUMBERS IN BALLPARK IN LATER PDS.  NO CHANGE TO EFP.                            
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 AM CST THU NOV 1 2001                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY THROUGH             
FRIDAY.                                                                         
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOUTH WIND HAD            
REMAINED IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY AT JOPLIN WHERE GUSTS              
TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RUC 500-300MB                           
VORTICITY/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED CHAIN OF VORTICITY LOBES FROM                 
INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA TO PHOENIX.                                       
00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH EACH OTHER AND PREVIOUS RUNS IN                  
DEVELOPING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE                 
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE            
MESOETA FOR GRIDDED DATABASE EDITS. STRANGE THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM             
IS THAT THE INITIAL ELONGATED VORTICITY AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES                  
NORTHEAST WELL BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. OVERLAY OF MESOETA            
250 MB DIVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS IS ALMOST AN EXACT                   
MATCH...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE UPSTAIRS DYNAMICS AND             
LOW LEVEL PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR RAIN                   
PRODUCTION...WITH 500 MB TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.              
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD SITUATION IN HAND...AND MADE ONLY MINOR EDITS.            
MAIN CONCERN WAS HOW LONG TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN IN FOR FRIDAY.                
MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RAIN AREA INTO NORTHERN               
ARKANSAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW THEIR LEAD.                  
MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SO DRY WEATHER                 
PATTERN TO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.                
INCREASED HUMIDITIES AND DECREASED WINDS WILL PRECLUDE ANY THOUGHT              
OF RED FLAG WARNING TODAY.                                                      
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                       
PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.                   
FCSTID = 8                                                                      
SGF   73  59  68  49 /  20  60  30   0                                          
JLN   74  59  69  49 /  10  40  30   0                                          
UNO   73  61  68  53 /  10  70  60   0                                          
VIH   74  56  68  47 /  20  60  30   0                                          
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
SUTTON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
100 AM EST THU NOV 1 2001                                                       
00Z KALY SOUNDING WAS SATURATED THRU LYR BTWN ABT H8.2 AND H5 WHILE             
CWMW WAS ABT THE SAME ONLY 100 MB CLOSER TO SFC...ALG WITH TEMP                 
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF PE PRODUCTION. SOUNDING AT KPIT INDICATED                 
CSDRBL DRYING. H3 POLAR JET OF 120 KT PER AIREP OVR SE NB AND RUC               
HAD BEST UPR DIV IN SRN QUE...WITH OTHER RGNS OVR WRN GRTLKS AND IN             
DRIER AMS THRU WV AND PA. WRMFNT APPEARS TO BE ALIGNED FM UPR MI-               
GEORGIAN BAY-CTSKLS AT 04Z AND RADAR SHOWS PCPN SHIELD HEADING ACRS             
ADRNDCKS...PTNS OF MHKVLY AND INTO SXNS OF NEW ENG. WRMFNT ADVANCES             
INTO ST LAWRENCE VLY AT 12Z THIS MRNG. MSTR INCRS AGAIN INVOF ERN               
GRTLKS BY 00Z FRI WITH PCPN AHEAD OF FNT RCHG INTO ADRNDCKS BEFORE              
THE NGT ENDS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT CDFNT RCHS WRN NY BY 00Z             
SAT. XPC MOST OF MEASURABLE PCPN RMNG NW OF KMSV-KPSF LN ON                     
FRI...THEN CDFNT DROPS OVR DIST FRI NGT. AVN RUN KEEPS THINGS VERY              
UNSETTLED ERY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY BUSY VOT PAT IN MOIST NW FLOW. RDG            
LN RCHS SE ONTARIO TUE MRNG AND INTO NERN STATES WED.  MCKINLEY/KDL             
.ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
156 PM MST THU NOV 1 2001                                                       
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL BE MAX/MIN TEMPS WITH                  
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.  IN FACT...THIS COULD CARRY                
INTO DAYS 3-5 ALSO.                                                             
CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC 400MB ANALYSES SHOWED MID             
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN CO MIGRATING EWD INTO KS.  FURTHER             
UPSTREAM...W-NWLY FLOW DEVELOPING.  ALSO..."OLD" CYCLONE SPINNING               
IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN(33N, 128W)...SLOWING HEADING EWD TOWARD BAJA OF            
CA.  LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS REVEALED DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO              
650-600MB TDA...SO WITH THE LACK OF DEEP TURBULENT MIXING AND                   
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT...TEMPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDA. IR            
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LITTLE...IF ANY...CLOUD COVER IN GREAT                
BASIN/SW US.  MAIN CLOUD COVER WAS OVER PACIFIC NW NEAR ONCOMING                
ULJS.                                                                           
TNGT-SAT: AGAIN...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW FORECAST TO REMAIN W-             
NWLY.  SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE AND BARELY              
MAKES IT TO THE BAJA OF CA BY SUN.  SHOULD SEE SKC TO FEW-SCT HIGH              
CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC             
WITH THE SKY CONDITION...RATHER THAN "PARTLY CLOUDY"...FOR TNGT/FRI.            
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TNGT WITH TYPICAL THERMALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE            
WINDS.  COOLEST SPOTS WILL BE IN VALLEYS AND WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE             
OR A LITTLE BELOW MOS.  ON FRI...DEPTH OF MIXING AND MAX TEMPS THE              
MAIN CONCERN.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  MESO-ETA GRIDS ARE               
FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS...SO WILL STICK WITH IT ON FRI.  FRI NGT...LOWER            
TROP WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE(SLY 10-15KTS) IN SERN CO WHICH COULD KEEP           
THINGS MIXED OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL IT TAKES IS 1 HOUR OF LIGHT WINDS              
FOR THE TEMP TO TANK.  SLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRI NGT/SAT WITH BEST 850-             
800MB AXIS PROJECT FURTHER S-E OF SERN CO. CURRENT VIS SATELLITE                
IMAGERY SHOWS ST/SC CLOUDS CONFINED OVER EXTREME SRN/ERN TX.  BY                
SAT AFTN...LOWER TROP AIR MASS RELATIVELY DRY.  SYSTEM IN THE PACIFIC           
OCEAN IS STILL WAY OFF THE CA/BAJA OF CA COASTLINE ON SAT/SAT NGT AND           
IS A NO PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER.  MESO-ETA SUGGESTING SAT MAX TEMPS               
68-73F ON THE SERN CO PLAINS...WHICH IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN CURRENT            
ZFP.  MESO-ETA MAX TEMP GRIDS IN-LINE WITH CURRENT WARMER                       
MOS(MAV/FWC).  EVEN THE COOL BIAS MAV HAS 73F FOR PUB SAT.  WILL                
MAINTAIN CURRENT ZFP...BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISE FOR IT TO A LITTLE              
WARMER ON SAT.                                                                  
SUN-THU: FOR SUN-TUE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. 84HR ETA           
AND 84-120HR AVN...SHOWING GENERALLY W-NWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CO.           
DECAYING PACIFIC OCEAN SYSTEM FINALLY IS FORECAST TO COME ON-SHORE              
IN BAJA OF CA SUN/MON THEN MIGRATES...WELL...S OF FCST AREA ALONG               
THE US/OLD MEXICO BORDER(TRACK IS A NO PLAYER FOR US).  AVN MAY BE              
WAY OVERDONE ON ITS LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SAT NGT-SUN-MON. 84HR ETA           
HAS NO QPF FOR SUN IN CO.  CURRENT PLANS ARE NOT TO TOUCH SUN-TUE               
FORECAST...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND LOW POP UNCERTAINTY WORDING MAY BE                
OVERDONE.  MRF IS FORECASTING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO COME THROUGH WED AND            
EXIT THU.  NOGAPS IS WEAKER AND FURTHER N...CAN AND ECMWF HOLDS                 
SYSTEM FURTHER W IN THE WRN US.  THE UKMET DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE.  IF             
MRF VERIFIES...METEOROLOGICAL CONCEPTUAL MODELS WOULD SUGGEST WINDY             
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION ALONG AND W OF CONTDVD.  WITH            
MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND KNOWING EXTENDED MODELS WEAKNESSES AND                     
PROPENSITY TO FLIP-FLOP...WILL JUST ADD THU TO WED.                             
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
130 PM EST THU NOV 1 2001                                                       
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RUC UPPER ANALYSIS AND SURFACE DATA SHOW            
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY ENSCONCED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WITH A                
DECENT CU FIELD DEVELOPING...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MODERATE SURFACE              
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY HIGH AND INCREASING RH                 
VALUES. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY TIGHT SO WINDS OVER LAND ARE UP             
SOMEWHAT AND BREEZY ON THE EAST SIDE. OVER WATER WINDS ARE UP                   
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SCEC IN EFFECT.                                              
MODELS/ZFP: MODELS SHOW THE UPPER WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EAST SLOWLY               
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVING WAY TO A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE             
EAST BY END OF FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN               
PLAINS WILL MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TO SOUTHERN                     
ONTARIO...THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NE ON SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED            
REGARDING THE TRAILING WEAK VORT LOBE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED TO BECOME             
DRAPED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY               
SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY AS IT                  
APPROACHES THE CWA.                                                             
AT THE SURFACE: MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE AS ETA NO LONGER SHOWS A                
WEAK INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE GULF COAST. IT DOES SHOW VERY MINOR               
AND TRANSIENT NORTHWARD-REACHING ANOMALIES IN THE MOISTURE FIELDS               
FRIDAY MORNING...NONE OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SENSIBLE             
WEATHER. MODELS STILL SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH                   
MICHELLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF              
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME             
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW. LITTLE               
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE            
CWA FROM THE NORTH...BUT WILL REMAIN NORTH BY LATE SATURDAY.                    
INHERITED ZONE DISTRIBUTION LOOKS SOUND BASED ON MODEL SCENARIO                 
SHOWN. MUCH DEPENDS ON ACTUAL TRACK OF MICHELLE. WITH TIME THIS                 
TRACK LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE A SOUTH FLORIDA EVENT. TEMP GUIDANCE             
CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED. POPS GUIDANCE SHOW A TREND OF DELAYING            
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. HAVE NO POPS TONIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASED               
POPS TO 10% ACROSS THE BOARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT.                                 
MARINE: WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE SCEC RANGE TODAY...SOMETIMES JUST              
BARELY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SO THROUGH FRIDAY...BEGIN TO              
PICK UP FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY TO SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.                  
FIRE WEATHER: NO REQUIREMENTS AS MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL                 
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.                                                      
EXTENDED: BEHIND THE FRONT...NE TO E FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA            
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN            
U.S. MICHELLE IS NOW EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTERLY BY MONDAY...                
MOVING ACROSS CUBA ENROUTE TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS TRACK WOULD TEND TO             
KEEP BOTH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF MY CWA.                 
PRELIM NUMBERS:                                                                 
TLH 58 83 61 83  00-1                                                           
PFN 62 82 64 81  00-1                                                           
DHN 59 82 61 81  00-1                                                           
ABY 58 81 59 80  0--1                                                           
VLD 59 83 60 83  0111                                                           
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...NONE.                                                                     
AFD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl