FXUS04 KWBC 221842
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
241 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 23/0000 UTC THRU JUN 24/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

REX BLOCK PATRN WITH DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN CANADA WILL
POLAR JET SUPPRESSED OVER THE NCNTL STATES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS PD WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER DOMINATING THE
NCNTL U.S.  MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN ACTION WILL BE
FORCED SWD AS WELL THIS PD FROM THE EXTREME SRN PLAINS INTO
THE SE AND SRN MID ATLC STATES ALONG WAVY FRONTAL ZONE.

SRN PLAINS/LWR MS AND TN VALLEYS/SRN MID ATL/SE STATES...
MODELS ARE IN GENL AGREEMENT IN DVLPG A WAVE ALONG FRONTAL
BDNRY ACRS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO S/WV ENERGY
LIFTING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS.  DIFFERENCES EXIST
HOWEVER WITH THE TIMING AND OVERALL HANDLING OF THE WAVE WITH
THE GFS AGAIN SHOWING SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES MAKING SFC WAVE
NEARLY VERTICAL WITH THE ENHANCE UPR CENTER.  SATL SHOWS WELL
DEFINED MCV OVER NE TX...SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH THE
ETA AND GFS...SHOULD BE THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR SFC DVLPMENT AS
IT LIFTS ENEWD OVERNIGHT.  DECENT LOW LEVEL JET OF 20 TO 30
KTS OF SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH PWS IN THE 2 TO
2.25 INCH RANGE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF FUEL FOR BOTH
WIDESPREAD CNVTN AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT AND GENERAL
OVERRUNNING CNVTV RAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE THRU THE TN
VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF THE CNTL APLCNS/MID ATLC.  WENT
CLOSER TO THE ETA MASS FIELD FCSTS..THOUGH INCREASED AMOUNTS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT GIVEN ITS USUAL LOW BIAS IN THIS
REGION.  ACRS THE SRN PLAINS...ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF MEX WILL LIKE COMBINE WITH WEAK BUT MOIST
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER S TX TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL STG TSTMS
WWD TOWARD THE BIG BEND REGION.  MOISTURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF SE AZ AND NM WHERE SCTD
DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING OF WEAK IMPULSES WENT WITH A BLEND IN QPFS OVER
THIS REGION.

NEW ENGLAND...
LOW PRESS SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD THRU THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY PUSHING ASSOCD COLD FRONT RAPIDLY THRU
THE NE TUE NIGHT.  BLOCK TO THE NORTH MAY SLOW NEWD PROGRESS
ACRS PARTS OF NRN MAINE WHERE SOME LOCAL .50 INCH RAINS MAY
OCCUR DUE TO SLOWER MOVEMENT.  OTHERWISE WITH FAST MOVEMENT
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NE..ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.


NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY/GT LAKES...

A SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS ROTATING AROUND UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPR LOW WILL TRIGGER SCTD SHWRS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE GT LAKES.  THOUGH SIGNIFICANT MSTR WILL BE
LACKING AND FLOW IS FAIRLY FAST..COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL
ENHANCE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES RESULTING IN SOME
LOCALLY STG TSTMS.  SOME .25 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS PSBL WED
AFTN OVER THE SRN LAKES WHERE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY HELP FOCUS
ACTIVITY.  

NAME EXPERIMENT AREA...
SATL DATA SHOWS WEAK PLUME OF SUBTROP MSTR COMING INTO THE
WCNTL MEX COASTAL AREA ALONG LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NE MEX. 
DEEPEST PLUME OF PWS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WCNTL COAST AS
WELL AS ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST REGION WHERE MOIST SLY TO
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN.  PLAYED THE UPSLOPE AREAS
ALONG BOTH COASTS AS WELL AS ALLOWING SOME OROGRAPHIC
ACTIVITY TO DVLP ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE INTO NW MEX.  ETA
GENLY PREFERRED MOST AREAS GIVEN ITS BETTER TOPOGRAPHIC
DETAILS.   

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV



                                   
 
24HR QP VT 24/00Z
 0.01 226053 230054 234057 240063 247069 252072 256075 261079 
      264081 276087 299100 304104 312111 315114 318114 322114 
      325112 330101 335095 339091 344086 349080 356072 360068 
      366065 373061 378058 379051 377045 373042 363036 357033 
      354034 346044 340046 335046 332045 329038 327028 326023 
      323019 317013 313009 310005 311990 309984 308979 314969 
      319965 324961 339954 347949 355941 362932 368921 382865 
      391815 396801 397797 396793 396787 394768 390758 385749 
      383744 379738 376735 371732 367734 363737 359738 358731 
      356728 355729 352735 347747 344754 339761 331772 318786 
      313792 305794 292799 287800 281800 269801 264801 260802 
      254804 248806 244811 243818 246823 251823 259824 270828 
      274830 279835 287843 290848 292855 294873 294877 293883 
      287891 282899 275908 262926 255936 246947 240953 232959 
 0.01 519693 517685 514677 508661 504653 501649 497641 492633 
      489626 487622 479615 474611 470607 465605 460602 454592 
      450591 445593 442595 436601 433604 431608 430612 429616 
      429621 429627 428629 426632 416643 414647 412651 412656 
      403672 389694 385701 382712 381723 383731 387736 395735 
      401733 406729 412718 417706 422698 425694 428693 432694 
      435697 437700 445711 457726 465735 473743 481748 485749 
      490750 493750 500745 504741 508734 508730 508725 510722 
      515723 517721 520713 520707 519693 
 0.01 547827 546818 544812 538803 535797 532793 524784 517776 
      512772 508769 498765 492764 486764 469769 457776 453779 
      450783 444794 439805 427828 409864 403875 400885 398901 
      402927 408931 417922 421929 429944 434957 439969 446969 
      450942 455939 463974 459988 451003 455029 463052 471064 
      477069 485067 483041 497027 518028 536010 530977 509964 
      488939 476919 466902 472887 484867 484838 485813 495809 
      505824 507829 510837 516856 519866 522871 525874 531872 
      533870 536864 542852 544845 546837 547827 
 0.01 544193 539176 537171 537167 532155 525143 520136 518133 
      513129 507128 502122 499121 494121 487123 480121 478120 
      476114 477099 476094 473092 468094 464098 463097 461097 
      459093 457088 456081 454074 449070 444069 440071 442080 
      440098 440104 441108 446117 449121 452125 455126 457128 
      462131 469136 477146 480149 482151 486155 491157 500166 
      502168 506170 510174 512179 518193 522197 524200 527208 
      530213 533213 539212 
 0.01 266038 267033 266026 263017 262014 259011 257009 254009 
      251010 248012 246019 242019 238017 235016 231017 238022 
      242028 247036 250042 253045 258047 264041 266038 
 0.25 231003 236001 241996 244991 246989 250987 259987 266989 
      269990 275989 281986 286983 291978 295973 299967 307954 
      310948 313944 318941 329934 342926 354915 360909 364901 
      370889 373880 375873 376864 377853 378844 380833 383819 
      389804 390800 390794 388786 387778 383764 381760 379756 
      374751 369748 365747 363748 360750 358750 354751 352754 
      350760 349764 352770 354772 354778 353786 351803 348811 
      344818 338824 334826 328828 304820 300823 299828 304837 
      308845 310851 311858 311874 309880 305887 291915 278938 
      274944 269949 256959 247966 239969 231971 
 0.25 500688 499680 496672 489661 482652 475644 468636 460628 
      443634 438636 435641 430651 426661 426664 432662 439664 
      442666 446670 452682 459697 464706 470717 475722 478723 
      484721 489714 495706 498704 500701 500693 500688 
 0.25 442850 442841 440840 437842 435845 433851 431858 430863 
      430867 429876 429880 430888 431889 433887 434883 435878 
      437872 439866 440859 441855 442850 
 0.25 330082 322078 319077 316078 311081 308081 305078 299072 
      294065 291065 291068 291072 294075 293078 294081 302087 
      310090 316096 321098 324095 327089 330082 
 0.25 305059 307056 306052 305051 302049 299048 298049 297053 
      299055 300056 302057 304059 305059 305059 
 0.25 303020 305016 305011 301004 296000 291996 285994 277998 
      273001 273005 274010 276016 278025 282031 287033 293031 
      299027 301025 303020 303020 
 0.25 228046 229046 231048 232048 234049 236051 237052 239054 
      240054 242057 244060 245061 247060 247057 245054 242052 
      241051 239049 237048 237047 236045 234043 231040 228038 
 0.50 231998 236996 238990 241986 247983 254979 257977 261977 
      275980 282980 287977 291972 295966 302953 309941 319933 
      330926 343917 350912 355907 359902 362896 369883 371875 
      373866 374858 375849 377833 380819 386803 386799 384797 
      378794 381782 380772 379767 375759 368753 364756 363766 
      362780 361796 358811 355819 352827 346838 337849 328860 
      320875 292923 288931 282944 275955 270961 264965 259969 
      256972 252973 231976 
 0.50 477710 481709 493691 494681 486664 479662 475658 469651 
      463644 458641 451641 445643 445648 447650 452658 453668 
      457678 462690 467698 472706 474709 477710 
 0.50 301014 300009 297005 294003 288003 283004 280008 280013 
      281016 284020 287022 292023 296021 300017 301014 
 1.00 376815 373813 370814 366814 364817 361827 358837 356845 
      353853 344868 337883 335892 333894 330895 324896 318900 
      312905 302920 295934 288950 285956 284960 283965 288968 
      293961 301947 305941 311934 323923 330918 336912 343907 
      349901 358896 362887 367871 369862 370851 374832 376815 
 1.50 366849 369836 367827 363843 363846 361852 358859 356867 
      353872 352879 350887 349891 354887 359883 361876 361866 
      362858 365853 366849 
 1.50 315917 311917 309920 306924 304927 302931 300935 298941 
      302940 304936 308932 310929 312924 314921 315917  
 
G$$