000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202240
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 12N117W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN BANDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY 
WITHIN 240 NM IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.  SYSTEM EMBEDDED 
IN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT APPROACHING AREA OF 
DIFFLUENCE AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SYSTEMS 
BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE JUST OFF COAST OF PANAMA DRAGGING PLENTY OF 
CONVECTION FROM CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MARKED DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
ENHANCING CONVECTION.  PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH GOOD 
UPLIFTING MECHANISM AND UPPER LEVEL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
SUPPORTS EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION.  WAVE SHOULD DEPART THIS 
ENVIRON AND ENTER INTO A MORE HOSTILE SW SHEAR WITHIN NEXT 36 
HRS AND SHOULD DIMINISH ITS ACTIVITY.    

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 104W FROM 4N TO 15N MOVING W 12-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS.
SYSTEM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WEAKER THAN FORECAST UPPER LEVEL WIND 
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION BEFORE ENTERING AREA OF ADVERSE CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 3N TO 11N MOVING W 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MERGING WITH LOW PRES 
MENTIONED IN SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.  HOSTILE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ALLOWING 
SYSTEM TO BE POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE.   

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 134W FROM 3N TO 12N MOVING W 10 KT. 
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT A;LOFT PRECLUDES 
ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP.

..ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...7N77W 9N90W 9N105W 11N113W 4N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W AND WITHIN 180 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 101W AND 125W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS W OF 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM 30N140W TO 15N133W HAS 
EFFECTIVELY DRIED OUT AIRMASS N OF 5N W OF 125W.  LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED AT 24N140W.  CIRCULATION MOVING 
NW 10 KT.  FURTHER E...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
AT 23N113W COVERS AREA N OF 10N FROM 100W TO 130W.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR 1009 MB LOW PRES.  WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AT 11N92W COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA PRODUCING STRONG DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER TROPICAL WAVE 
JUST OUT OF PANAMA. 
AT THE SURFACE... HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
20N112W WITH STRONG N WINDS PUSHING AGAINST COAST OF CALIFORNIA 
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LARGE N SWELLS MOVING ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA COAST. 

LARGE SWELLS CROSSING EQUATOR INTO E PAC..WHICH WERE CORRECTLY 
FORECAST BY NWW3 AS HIGH AS 14 FT...HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE.  SHIP 
REPORTS WITH SEAS TO 10-12 FT...AND NWW3 GOOD HANDLE ON SOLUTION 
INCREASES CONFIDENCE  OF DIMINISHING SEAS NEXT 48 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES