AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
920 PM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
WE HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE FREEZING MARK HERE AT THE AIRPORT AND               
LOCAL METARS INDICATE MUCH OF THE REMAINING CWFA IS ALREADY NEAR                
FREEZING. SATELLITE INDICATES CLEAR SKIES AS CONVECTIVE CLOUDS                  
UPSTREAM HAVE DISSIPATED AND CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE REMAINING N OF THE               
CWFA. FREEZE/HARD FREEZE WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK.                                
MARINE: BUOYS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING AT SCEC LEVELS. PER                 
27/00Z RUC...EXPECT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN OVER THE WATERS AS              
THE WEAK LOW OVER OUR WRN WATERS TRACKS E. WILL MENTION EXERCISE                
CAUTION FOR THE OUTER WATERS...BUT SUSPECT MORNING UPDATE WILL BE               
ABLE TO REMOVE THIS WORDING.                                                    
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...FREEZE WARNING ALZ065>069.                                                
.GA...HARD FREEZE WARNING GAZ0120>131-142>148-155>161.                          
.FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING FLZ007>019-026>029-034 EXCEPT ALONG THE               
      COAST WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.                                
      RED FLAG WARNING THU ALL INLAND ZONES.                                    
      FIRE WEATHER WATCH THU ALL COASTAL ZONES.                                 
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
751 PM MST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
CURRENT WINDS ARE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. RUC IS CATCHING THIS NICELY...             
AND THEN SHIFTS DIR TO N TO NW LATER ON TONIGHT. BASED ON OBS                   
UPSTREAM AND PROFILERS...WL HAVE SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH              
AT LEAST. WL ADJUST ALL ZONES BASED ON ABV. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD.            
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
322 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST.           
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH THE FRIDAY PERIOD, WITH             
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY.  WILL GO WITH A LOW TEMPERATURE                  
GRADIENT TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST, RANGING FROM 15           
IN THE HAYS AREA TO NEAR 23 IN THE ELKHART ZONE.  THE LATEST SURFACE            
PLOT FROM 20Z SHOWED DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS 22 IN HYS (FLOW OFF OF               
SNOWPACK) TO 12 AT BOTH DODGE AND GARDEN.  AS WINDS SUBSIDE AFTER               
SUNSET, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING              
AND DRYING OUT AT THE SURFACE.                                                  
COMPARISON OF RUC/NGM/ETA/AVN MODELS WAS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR AT                
THE 12Z INITIALIZATION PERIOD.  THE NGM STARTS WARMING THINGS UP THE            
QUICKEST, AND KEEPS THE SURFACE WARM EVEN DURING THE NIGHT                      
PERIODS. THE ETA AND AVN ARE COMPARABLE WITH THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN,           
AND CLOSE ON WIND DIRECTION.  THE AVN HAS ABOUT 5 KNOTS STRONGER                
WIND SPEEDS, AND THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.                           
FOR THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD PERSIST AND                
ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE AFFECT.  THINK THE WARMEST ZONES WILL BE NEAR                 
OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE LOW 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SLIGHTLY COOLER                
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST, WITH WEAK SNOW COVER STILL                  
HAVING A SLIGHT INFLUENCE.  THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS SIMILAR TO                     
TONIGHT'S FORECAST, WITH PERHAPS LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO            
NORTH.                                                                          
NO POPS FOR NOW, EVEN INTO LATE FRIDAY.  THINK THERE WILL BE AN                 
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE THE LOWER LAYERS             
FROM THE WEST BACK TO THE EAST.  UPPER SUPPORT APPEARS TO LAG                   
BEHIND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, SO WILL LEAVE INTRO              
OF SNOW CHANCES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.                                        
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
AS ANOTHER REENFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTH ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND SEVERAL S/W TROFS, LOCATED OUT IN THE                   
PACIFIC, WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WRN CONUS RIDGE AND INTO THE                    
CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH                
THIS AND BRINGS OUR FIRST WAVE ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE PANHANDLE OF              
TX/OK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEXT WAVE WILL THEN                 
CROSS WESTERN KS SUNDAY AS MID LVL BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER             
OUR AREA FROM THE NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR.                                       
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE PRECEDING OUR FIRST PACIFIC WAVE...MID LVL               
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AND AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT SOME -SN            
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF EACH VORT LOBE, ESPECIALLY THE W/SW. CLOUD                 
COVER ON SAT WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES TRICKY, WITH BREAKS OF                      
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY ON SAT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP                
TEMPS CLOSE TO FMR, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO            
DEVELOP IN THE WEST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS SO              
FAR THIS WINTER WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES CLOUDY AND A              
CHANCE OF -SN.                                                                  
IN THE LATER PERIODS CONFIDENCE LEVEL DECREASES RAPIDLY. THE                    
INCREASING AAM AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ERN                   
PACIFIC SUGGESTING A MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE WRN CONUS               
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING LATE IN THE WEEK.                    
ALTHOUGH MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS,                
THEY STILL BRING A ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN                 
PLAINS BY MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE                  
POSSIBLE WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK WILL FOLLOW THE COOLER                  
EXTENDED MODELS SOLUTION.                                                       
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE              
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.                                  
DDC 020/047 020/048 017 000                                                     
GCK 019/047 020/048 018 000                                                     
EHA 022/053 022/050 021 000                                                     
LBL 021/052 022/049 020 000                                                     
HYS 015/045 018/046 012 000                                                     
P28 021/050 022/050 019 000                                                     
.DDC...NONE.                                                                    
BURKE/BURGERT                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST..                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1158 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                     
...UPDATE TO LIMIT SN AND CLOUDS TO CSTL SECTIONS. HAVE RELUCANTLY              
LEFT WXA IN MA22-23. DROPPED FLURRIES THIS EVENING OVR INTERIORS.               
CORRECTED MNTN OF POPS WITH FLURRIES WHERE NEEED.                               
...PRVS DISC PER DRAG...                                                        
ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND              
NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC             
CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE               
QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN            
REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S              
OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A                   
DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED).            
LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN              
NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO                
EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN.  CONF ON HOW THIS               
UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL              
RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD                   
PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST.                               
MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO             
        SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY.                     
STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E                   
GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS              
TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z.  IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS                   
CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH                       
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS.  NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA.            
PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN             
       BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS                  
       OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP                  
       TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX             
       FMH TDY.                                                                 
MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON            
WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE              
FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN                
LESS.                                                                           
NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED                 
     EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE               
     THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV                   
     IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD                
     UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL               
     BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING              
     WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM               
     DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST            
     PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN               
     REFILL THIS AFTN.                                                          
QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH                
     AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP.                                                     
GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT             
       3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME           
       WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE               
       HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF                   
       INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+             
       AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF              
       THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY                
       WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET.                             
CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK                 
AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE             
100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL           
DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS               
FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO             
MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE           
OF THE YEAR.                                                                    
LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT!                                  
LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND               
    EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF               
    "NEAR NORMAL" TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY                      
    ACCOMPANIED CFP'S. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR              
    AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL           
    WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF             
    CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND                
    APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK).                                             
.BOX...WXA MA 22-23.                                                            
       SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS.                                
       SCA MAY BE REQD THURSDAY REMAINDER OF THE CW                             
       WATERS EXCEPT FOR BOS HRB/NARR BAY.                                      
DRAG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED ZFP SE NEW ENG COAST..                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
748 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
...CONTINUITY OF FCST FROM LAST EVENING...                                      
ZFP UPDATED FOR ALREADY ONGOING SNOW BID-HYA. RDF BASICALLY OK AND              
NO CHG. SYSTEM MAY BE PROGRESSING FASTER THAN FIRST FCST... 09Z RUC             
CONTS BRINGING THIS SYSTEM UP I95 THIS AFTN SO WHILE WE PULSE ONE               
QPF EVENT THRU SE NEW ENG THIS MORNING...IT SHUD QUIT IN RI AND THEN            
REDEVELOP NNEWD MIDDAY. SYSTEM STILL HAS PRES FALLS AT 12Z W AND S              
OF ITS 12Z PSN (BACK TO THE NJ COAST IN WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A                   
DIURNAL RISE TIME SO ITS BECOMING A BIGGER STORM SYSTEM AS MODELED).            
LOW POSIT AT 12Z SHUD B ABOUT 80 S OF HOTEL. WE HAVE A SHIP W RAIN              
NR FIRE ISLAND BUOY BUT UNSURE WHETHER ITS PLOTTED CORRECTLY. SO                
EXPECT FURTHER DVLPT AND FCST CONTS AS WRITTEN.  CONF ON HOW THIS               
UNFOLDS IS 60-70 PCT. DID NOT LIKE THE 06Z MODEL TREND AND OVERALL              
RADAR LOOK BUT ONCOMING WV DRY SPOT MARKING THE VT MAX SHOULD                   
PRODUCE NEW PCPN DVLPMT SHORTLY OFF THE NJ COAST.                               
MODELS: 06Z AVN/ETA MODELS TENDED TO SHIFT EAST. RATHER THAN OVERDO             
        SNOWFALL...KEPT IT TRIM WITH PRIMARY FOCUS FMH-MVY.                     
STILL CONCERNED BY ALREADY 1004MB LOW E OF HAT AND LARGE NE-E                   
GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN THE SNE WATERS. MAY HAVE TRUSTED THE MODELS              
TOO MUCH TOO FAR E SWING FROM 06Z.  IF 06Z EWD MODEL TREND IS                   
CORRECT...PROB MAINLY SNOW HYA REGION AND MIX/RS ACK WITH                       
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMTS.  NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS ATTM BASED ON 11Z DATA.            
PTYPE: DUE TO WARM SST AFFECTING BL PCPN IN LIGHT PHASES MAY B RAIN             
       BUT THERE SHOULD BE A BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AND WHEN THIS                  
       OCCURS...IT TURNS TO STICKING SNOW AND VSBY SHOULD DROP                  
       TO 1/4 OR 1/2MI FOR AT LEAST A FEW MINUTES SOMEWHERE ACK-CQX             
       FMH TDY.                                                                 
MODELS SIMILAR WITH BOX/HPC/MPC AGREEMENT (SEE QPFPFD/HSD MIMATN) ON            
WWD TRACK OF AVN BEING MORE LIKELY TO VERIFY. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE              
FINAL RESULT IS BUT PER THE GEMR AND GEMG HEAVIER QPF VS ETA/AVN                
LESS.                                                                           
NOW: WHILE THERE IS A LEAD SHORT WAVE GETTING EVERYTHING PRIMED                 
     EARLY THIS MORNING... QPF AND CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP MORE NNE               
     THIS AFTN AS PRIMARY SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON 11Z WV                   
     IMAGERY AT THE BASE OF THE TROF IN MS/AL GETS READY TO HEAD                
     UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROF. ANY PARTIAL CLEARING THAT WILL               
     BRIEFLY MOVE INTO S NH...NW 1/3 MA AND NW 1/4 CT THIS MORNING              
     WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND AS UVM               
     DVLPS...INCLUDING LOTS OF MID DECK CLOUD. ALSO EXPECT THE FIRST            
     PIECE OF QPF THIS MORNING FM BID TO CC TO BRIEFLY BREAK THEN               
     REFILL THIS AFTN.                                                          
QPF: THIS FCSTR USED THE 06Z ETA .01 FOR CATEGORICAL 80 PCT WITH                
     AVN .10 A 100 PCT POP.                                                     
GWAVE: THERE IS CONSIDERABLE PVA/PIVA TODAY IN SNE AND A 150-160 KT             
       3H JET CORE MOVING INTO THE INFLECTION PT OF THE 3H RDG HAS ME           
       WONDERING ABOUT A GWAVE THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH MAY ALREADY BE               
       HINTED AT IN THE MODEL UVM FIELDS. GWAVE MODULATES QPF                   
       INTENSITY. IN THIS CASE WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR W2X1/4S+             
       AND GUSTY WIND TO 30 KTS FROM SEEMINGLY NOWHERE. SUSPECT IF              
       THIS WOULD OCCUR IT WOULD BE CQX OR ACK REGION LATE TODAY                
       WITH ASSTD SHORT TERM PPP FALL/RISE COUPLET.                             
CAPE COD: FCST SOUNDING ABV FREEZING LOWEST 600-1200 FT CQX-ACK                 
AND THINKING RAIN MIXES IN AT TIMES. MOSTLY SNOW FMH REGION. SUBTLE             
100 FT ELEVATIONS AND PROXIMITY TO BL TEMP OF 4C ALONG THE WATER WILL           
DETERMINE SNOW/RAIN DESPITE VERY COLD PARTIAL THICKNESS. BLV ODDS               
FAVOR ACK MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTN. LARGE SNOW RANGE CC AND MVY DUE TO             
MELTING/MIX/TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND ADVY FOR FIRST SLIPPERY EVENT THERE           
OF THE YEAR.                                                                    
LES: WILL WRAP IT IP ON CC ARD 03-06Z TONIGHT!                                  
LR: LITTLE THIS MORNING...OTHER THAN TO NOTE THE PERSISTENTLY AND               
    EVER COLDER PATTERN CONTS. NO ENS AND LR VIEWING TODAY. BRIEF               
    "NEAR NORMAL" TEMP INTERLUDES WILL OCCUR AHD OF FLURRY                      
    ACCOMPANIED CFP'S. LES TRAILERS FM GTLKS INTO SNE AT TIMES FOR              
    AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FA...THESE DEPENDENT ON THE 8H-BL           
    WIND FIELD. LIKEWISE 8H-BL WIND WILL GOVERN LES FOR PORTIONS OF             
    CC AND ACK (IE NOT ONLY NW AND N APPROACHES BUT ALSO SW WIND                
    APPROACHES TO S COAST AND ACK).                                             
.BOX...WXA MA 22-23.                                                            
       SCA MAY BE RQD TNGT PVC-MTK OUTER WATERS AND REMAINDER                   
       THE CW WATERS THURSDAY EXCEPT NONE THIS 36 HR PRD FOR BOS                
       HARB/NARR BAY.                                                           
DRAG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1045 PM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AGAIN ARE LES TRENDS.                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED H5 LO JUST NE OF LK SUPERIOR.             
ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS WERE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...ETA/RUC FCST            
OF AREA 850-500 QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ON SW FLANK OF THE LO WAS                   
CONSISTENT WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR FROM -25C TO            
-35C DEPICTED BY IR LOOP. QG FORCING ALSO SUPPORTED LARGE AREA OF               
-SN OR FLURRIES OVER INTERIOR WEST/CNTRL UPR MI AND NRN WI NOT                  
FAVORED BY WNW FLOW FROM LK SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...TROF EXTENDED                
FROM LO OVER NE LK SUPERIOR NEAR WAWA TOWARD THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW            
INTO WEST CTNRL LK SUPERIOR. ETA HAS HAD REASONABLE GRASP OF THIS               
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED LLVL WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 00Z ETA               
FCST BEST 950 CONVERGENCE PERSISTING FROM NEAR ONTONAGON EAST TO                
SOUTH CNTRL HOUGHTON COUNTY. UPSTREAM AND H8 WINDS (DEVILS ISLAND)              
HAVE ALSO VEERED ENOUGH (TO 310) TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW BACK TOWARD              
KIWD. LK-H8 DELTA/T REMAINS NEAR 19C AND PLENTIFUL MOISUTRE REMAINS             
TO 700 MB WITH INVERION HGTS ABV 8K FT. SO...WL KEEP 2-6 INCH                   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GOING OVERNIGHT FOR THE WEST WITH THE HEAVIEST                 
AMOUNTS FROM NEAR THE PORCUPINES TO ROCKLAND...TWIN LAKES AND ALSTON.           
FARTHER EAST...KMQT 88D SHOWED WEST TO EAST BAND REMAINING                      
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE PICTURE ROCKS TO WHITEFISH POINT. ETA KEEPS              
THE BEST 950 CONVERGENCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD SAG                 
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP POSSIBILITY OF OCNLY HEAVY SHSN NEAR THE                   
LAKESHORE EAST OF MUNISING AFT 06Z. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STILL               
SEE OCNL -SN OF FLURRIES TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT AS QG SUPPORT                
WANES AS QDIV TAKES OVER.                                                       
.MQT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIZ001>003-009.               
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MIZ006-007 AND            
       NRN MIZ014.                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
345 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
QUESTION OF -SN MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.  KMPX VCP 32 CONTINUING TO               
SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS RETURNS OF 10 TO 20 DBZ WITH ISOLATED 20 TO 25             
DBZ...AS A RESULT OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOTED ON LATEST RUC 280            
THETA SFC.  VISIBLITIES HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS EAST                   
CENTRAL MN LAST SEVERAL HOURS SO WL CONT DECREASING TREND THROUGH               
EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN MN CWA...AND LATER IN EVE IN WI.                       
S/W CIRCULATION SAGGING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD OVER EAST CENTRAL ND INTO             
SD NEXT FEW HOURS.  CEILINGS HAVE BEEN FALLING ACRS THIS AREA SO MID            
LEVEL SATURATION TAKING PLACE BUT YET TO SEE SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION             
REACHING THE GROUND...ASSOCD WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING.  A FEW FLURRIES             
UPSTREAM IN SRN CANADA IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.  ETA OVERDID PRECIP AT            
18Z AND MOST LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVE.  WILL PULL BACK ON                 
MENTIONING ACCUMULATIONS AND LWR POPS SLIGHTLY...PER COORD WITH                 
FSD.  FORCING ASSOCD WITH S/W RAPIDLY SAGS SWD TONIGHT WITH                     
SUBSIDENCE LIKELY RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING IN PARTS OF CWA                 
LATER TNGT.  OTHERWISE...POLAR VORTEX REMAINS ENTRENCHED BETWEEN                
GREAT LAKES AND JAMES BAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT N TO NWLY MID                 
LEVEL FLOW.  NEXT SPOKE OF S/W VORTICITY EXPCD TO ROTATE AROUND LOW             
THURSDAY NGT INTO FRI WITH 85H TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -20              
FOR FRI INTO SAT.  WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND WINDS...WL                 
RAISE GUIDANCE TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN LTR PDS WITH COLDEST READINGS LKLY             
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO RGN.                              
SLIGHT WARMUP FOR NEW YEARS NOW APPEARS DELAYED SEVERAL DAYS AS LAST            
SPOKE OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING/EXITING CANADIAN POLAR             
VORTEX SWINGS THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUE INTO WED.  HOWEVER             
SIGNS ARE THERE FOR SLIGHT WARMUP LATER IN THE WEEK AS BLOCKING                 
NORTHERN CANADIAN HIGH FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  LATEST EXTENDED CANADIAN            
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH MRF ON DELAYING WARMUP.  5H ENSEMBLE                 
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY AT 144 HOURS AS TREND TWD SLIGHT             
WARMUP BEGINS.                                                                  
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1035 AM CST WED DEC 26 2001                                                     
EXPANDING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TIED INTO WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOTED            
ON 280 THETA SURFACE OFF LATEST RUC40 GUIDANCE.  VSBYS DECREASING TO            
1 TO 2 MILES AT TIMES.  UPGLIDE BEGINS TO DIMINISH INTO MID                     
AFTERNOON OVER ERN MN/WRN WI SO MAINLY SCT FLURRIES EXPCTD BY                   
SUNSET.  MAY BE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION AS DRY SNOW TENDS TO PILE UP              
RATHER THAN SETTLE.                                                             
OTHER CONCERN IS RATHER VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH SAGGING SWD OVR MAN.                
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVR WESTERN LAKE WINNIPEG.  170 METER 5H                  
HEIGHT FALLS NOTED AT CYQD AT 12Z.  ATTM...MID LEVEL MOISTURE                   
LACKING BUT QUITE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL RH SHOULD ADD FORCING AND                
EVENTUAL SATURATION.  STILL EXPC AREAS OF -SN TO SPREAD INTO PARTS              
OF WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE...RESULTING IN QUICK 2            
TO 5 HR BURST.  BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN PERIPHERY COUNTIES             
FROM KDXX TO KFRM.                                                              
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
KAVINSKY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
920 PM MST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SNOW SHOWERS WON'T BREAK OUT IN                
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TILL AFTER SUNRISE. ADJUSTED ZONES TO ACCOUNT                
FOR THIS. 38                                                                    
.ABQ...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TODAY FORECAST                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
1103 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                     
WE WILL DO YET ANOTHER UPDATE TO CLEAN THINGS UP A BIT...SUNNY ALL              
ZONES...EXCEPT FAR EAST. WILL UP TEMPS THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT               
OBS AND TRENDS.                                                                 
.......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS..................                   
LOOK AT THE 12Z RUNS SHOWS THAT TODAY...LOOK AT 06Z AND 00Z MODEL               
RUNS GIVES LITTLE ASSISTANCE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. SNOW                     
DEVELOPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM OCEAN                
CITY, MD TO BLOCK ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS CAPE COD. BASED ON                     
SATELLITE...EXPECT ONLY FAR EASTERN LI TO GET A FLURRY FROM THIS.               
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SCT-BKN MID CLOUD...BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY OF                
THIS TO PRODUCE PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND. WHILE THESE CLOUDS            
HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT THEM TO THIN THIS              
AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TODAY.                    
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE LOW TO BOMB SE OF THE CAPE. RUC                
INDICATES THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAKES IT BACK THROUGH THE TWIN FORKS.            
WHILE SW-- MAY DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE...HAVE TO                  
DISCOUNT IT BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY SEEN.               
LAMP INDICATING WARMER HIGHS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS ARE BELOW LAMP                
TEMPS. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST.                                             
EXPECT UPDATED PRODUCTS BY 930.                                                 
******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*********************                      
ONCE LOW PRES MOVS TO OUR N (ARND 03Z) SKIES WILL CLR OUT FAIRLY                
FAST. WILL GO WITH A M/CLR FCST. LITTLE CLIPPER TRIES TO MOV INTO               
THE RGN DURING THU AFTN HOURS. SOME DECENT CAA WILL ALSO BE WITH IT             
AND THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW               
GROWTH AT THE H7 MB LVL AND DOWN TO ARND H8. MODELS ALSO HAVE A SHOT            
OF VORT THAT WILL MOV IN AND WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES WITH IT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REAL               
MOIST SO THE RGN WILL ONLY GET THE FLURRIES.                                    
MARINE...QUITE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS SHOULD START TO SOME UP DURING               
THU AFTN. WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR CSTL ZNS.              
TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE. YSTD TEMPS             
WERE A COUPLE OF DEGS COOLER THAN THE NGM HAD. AVN DID A BETTER JOB             
ON THOSE.                                                                       
.OKX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED THURSDAY                          
         ANZ350-353-355.                                                        
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TODAY FORECAST                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
850 AM EST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
TODAY...LOOK AT 06Z AND 00Z MODEL RUNS GIVES LITTLE ASSISTANCE TO               
THE CURRENT SITUATION. SNOW DEVELOPED IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT              
CURRENTLY RUNS FROM OCEAN CITY, MD TO BLOCK ISLAND AND THEN ACROSS              
CAPE COD. BASED ON SATELLITE...EXPECT ONLY FAR EASTERN LI TO GET A              
FLURRY FROM THIS. ELSEWHERE...THERE IS SCT-BKN MID CLOUD...BUT DON'T            
EXPECT ANY OF THIS TO PRODUCE PCPN THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND.                 
WHILE THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THE PAST HOUR...EXPECT             
THEM TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY             
SKY TODAY.                                                                      
THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS INDICATE LOW TO BOMB SE OF THE CAPE. RUC                
INDICATES THAT MEASURABLE PCPN MAKES IT BACK THROUGH THE TWIN FORKS.            
WHILE MAY DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER DEFORMATION ZONE...HAVE TO DISCOUNT              
IT BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS CURRENTLY SEEN.                        
LAMP INDICATING WARMER HIGHS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS ARE BELOW LAMP                
TEMPS. THUS WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST.                                             
EXPECT UPDATED PRODUCTS BY 930.                                                 
******************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*********************                      
ONCE LOW PRES MOVS TO OUR N (ARND 03Z) SKIES WILL CLR OUT FAIRLY                
FAST. WILL GO WITH A M/CLR FCST. LITTLE CLIPPER TRIES TO MOV INTO               
THE RGN DURING THU AFTN HOURS. SOME DECENT CAA WILL ALSO BE WITH IT             
AND THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW               
GROWTH AT THE H7 MB LVL AND DOWN TO ARND H8. MODELS ALSO HAVE A SHOT            
OF VORT THAT WILL MOV IN AND WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS THERE                
SHOULD BE SOME SNOW FLURRIES WITH IT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REAL               
MOIST SO THE RGN WILL ONLY GET THE FLURRIES.                                    
MARINE...QUITE FOR NOW...BUT WINDS SHOULD START TO SOME UP DURING               
THU AFTN. WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT MAY BE NEEDED FOR OUR CSTL ZNS.              
TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN SOLN WITH THIS PACKAGE. YSTD TEMPS             
WERE A COUPLE OF DEGS COOLER THAN THE NGM HAD. AVN DID A BETTER JOB             
ON THOSE.                                                                       
.OKX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
845 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
WINDS HOLD THE KEY TO TONIGHT'S TEMP FCST. GRADIENT A LTL TIGHTER               
TONIGHT, WITH WEST WINDS HOLDING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE SO FAR                
IN MOST AREAS. DWPTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW, AVERAGING 14 TO 20 DEGS               
ACROSS OUR FA, AND LATEST RUC SHOWS SFC DWPTS REMAINING PRETTY MUCH             
UNCHANGED THROUGH 12Z.                                                          
AS LONG AS WINDS HOLD UP, MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO ANY LOWER THAN                
CURRENT ZFP PROJECTIONS (IN LOWER 20S). HOWEVER, LATEST AWOS REPORTS            
FROM TULLAHOMA, FAYETTEVILLE AND LEWISBURG SHOW CALM WINDS AND TEMPS            
ALREADY DOWN TO 25 TO 28 DEGS. SMYRNA HAD 23 DEGREES. THUS, MAY                 
INTRODUCE AN OVERNIGHT TEMP GROUP FOR LOW LYING AREAS TO ALLOW FOR              
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PROTECTED LOW AREAS WHERE WINDS STAY              
NEAR CALM.                                                                      
BLV THE PTCLDY FCST IDEA IS STILL GOOD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHEN               
ONE CONSIDERS THE MID-HI LVL CLOUDS RACING SEWD OUT OF MO AT 45 MPH.            
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGE.                                                           
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
202 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE MAX/MIN TEMPS TDA-FRI.  SOME UNCERTAINTIES OF            
WIND POTENTIAL REACHING LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG I-25 ON FRI.  EVEN               
BIGGER UNCERTAINTIES ON WHAT WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR FRI NGT-SAT IN SERN            
CO.                                                                             
CURRENTLY: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL 500-300MB LAYER VORTICITY              
ANALYSIS SHOWING FAST MOVING(46KTS) SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NERN UT WITH            
CLOUD SHIELD JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.  MOISTURE MAINLY AOA 450MB               
PER CWA LAPS SOUNDINGS.  APPEARS TO BE NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION                   
FALLING OUT OF THE CLOUDS PER VERY WEAK 88D RETURNS FROM THE GJT                
RADAR AND BASED ON SFC OBS.  EVEN THE MONARCH/WOLF CREEK PEAK(APROX.            
12K FT) NOT REPORTING ANY -SN.  AIR MASS STILL NEEDS TO OVERCOME                
SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.   HIGH LEVEL CLOUD                 
SHIELD HAS HALTED RADIATIONAL COOLING AS TEMPS ARE A LOT WARMER THAN            
LAST NGT AT THIS TIME.                                                          
TDA-TNGT: ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24HRS.                  
ISOCHRONE ANALYSIS HAS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTROID OVER             
SWRN CO AROUND 14Z/27 TDA.  THIS HAS EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH SHORT            
RANGE MODELS.  WILL LOOK FOR 60-80KT ULJ AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO            
BLOW THROUGH SWRN CO THIS MORNING...THEN INTO TX BY LATE AFTN.  A               
VERY WEAK TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ERN CO/WRN             
KS WITH LITTLE FANFARE.  HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE                   
DECREASE AFTER 18Z/27 TDA WITH PROBABLY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTN.           
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS PRETTY SLIM.  MID LEVEL STATIC                   
STABILITIES ARE FAIRLY(3.5-5 C/KM) STABLE AS THE ULJ DRIVES THROUGH             
SWRN CO. AIR MASS DRYS OUT FAIRLY WELL.  GUESS THERE STILL COULD BE             
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD -SHSN MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR                   
SWRN/CNTRL MTNS BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z.  THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL THE            
MAX TEMPS TDA...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY.  LITTLE WIND           
TO STIR UP THE LOWER TROP...SO IT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YDA.           
CURRENT MOS NWP GUIDANCE IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT ZFP.  THE INHERITED            
ZFP LOOKS DARN GOOD AND LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.                                 
FOR TNGT...FAIRLY QUIET.  A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH SWRN CO...           
HOWEVER MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN NERN CO ALONG/W OF CONTDVD.             
AGAIN...CURRENT ZFP LOOKS REAL GOOD.                                            
FRI: VERY CHALLENGE DAY IN TERMS OF WIND AND MAX TEMP...ESPECIALLY              
ALONG I-25 CORRIDOR.  VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF CAN                
INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE US RE-ENFORCING THE CAN AIR MASS.  IN               
THE MEANTIME...A NWLY FLOW ULJ/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO            
MOVE THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES.  STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON THE                    
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE ULJ/SHORTWAVE.  THE AVN IS STRONGER AND              
FASTER...WHILE THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND SLOWER.  MET SETUP                
FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE DEVELOPMENT.  JUST HOW FAR DOWN IN ELEVATION WILL             
THE WINDS BE REALIZED?  THE CONUNDRUM IS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY                  
HANGING AROUND IN ERN CO ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MOUNTAIN WAVE              
CS SHIELD. IF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE FURTHER W...THEN IT WILL KEEP               
THE WINDS LOCKED UP AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THIS IS ALSO CRITICAL FOR            
MAX TEMPS.  IF THE WINDS DON'T PICK UP FRI...THEN MAY BE HARD TO                
REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S PREDICTED BY FWC.  IF WE CAN MIX TO 700MB...            
THAT WOULD GET US IN THE MID 50S AOB 5.5K FT MSL. TOUGH CALL. ANY               
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG/W OF CONTDVD. PLAN TO STICK WITH           
CURRENT ZFP AS AGAIN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. WILL ADD SOME OCCASIONAL WIND           
WORDING FOR FRI ALONG/W OF I-25.                                                
FRI NGT-SAT: ANOTHER BIG CHALLENGE FOR THESE PERIODS.  SFC FRONT                
PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT NRN RANGE TO PALMER DIVIDE TO           
SRN FOOTHILLS.  WOULD BE SURPRISED IF THE SFC FRONT "SQUIRTS" UP THE            
LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY.  ULJ PARALLELING THE FRONT DIRECTLY OVER CWA             
FRI NGT-SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE STRONGER AVN IS             
MORE ROBUST WITH THE 850-700MB QG FRONTOGENETICAL IMPLIED ASCENT...             
THUS A LITTLE MORE LIGHT QPF(--SN/-SN) IN ERN CO/WRN KS. THE ETA IS             
WEAKER AND LESS OR NIL QPF IN SERN CO. TOUGH CALL...ALL DEPENDS HOW             
TIGHT THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN TIGHTEN UP. MOSITURE NOT VERY           
DEEP...SO WOULD THINK THE POTENTIAL WOULD BE FLURRIES AT BEST. SINCE            
THIS IS DAY 3 TERRITORY...PLAN TO STICK WITH CURRENT ZFP WHICH LOOKS            
GOOD.                                                                           
SUN-WED: NO CHANGES FOR DAY 4-7.                                                
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
224 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
SYNOPSIS: COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS BELOW              
FREEZING ACROSS ENTIRE CWFA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HARD                 
FREEZE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL VERIFY FOR ERN ZONES. LOOKING FOR THE                 
COLDEST TEMPS SINCE JAN 26 HERE AT TLH BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE HIGH                
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM E TX E TO FL WITH A WEAK LOW ANALYZED IN THE              
NE GULF. LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH A              
STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND IT, MOVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS.            
A SHORT WAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN IS MOVING SEWD FROM ID INTO UT AFTER             
HAVING CUT THROUGH THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE. A SRN STREAM SHORT                
WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN OLD MEXICO.                                
MODEL DISCUSSION: OF THE 3 AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES, ONLY THE ONE             
IN UTAH WILL HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WX LOCALLY. THIS FEATURE             
DIVES SE TO TX BY 00Z AND THEN E TO LA BY 12Z FRI. AFTER THIS TIME,             
THE SYSTEMS SHEARS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST                
STATES. MODELS ARE NO LONGER IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ASSOCIATED                  
DEVELOPMENTS AT THE SURFACE. THE ETA MAINTAINS THE BEST RUN TO RUN              
CONSISTENCY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT/S 00Z RUN. IT STILL SHOWS               
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE COASTAL BEND OF TX AROUND 06Z FRI WITH THE LOW            
THEN MOVING ENE ACROSS LA ON FRI AND THEN ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF             
THE CWFA FRI NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH OF              
LAST NIGHT/S SOLUTION. THE AVN AND NGM HOWEVER, ONLY SHOW A WEAK                
OPEN TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NRN GULF STATES DURING THIS TIME AND MAV             
POPS HAVE LOWERED A BIT ACCORDINGLY. THE ETA AND AVN DO AGREE THAT              
THE BULK OF THE LIFT AND PRECIP WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF BY THE                
TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES US.                                                     
PUBLIC FORECAST: FOR TODAY, LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE AND            
PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, A FEW CAA CLOUDS MAY               
MOVE ASHORE FROM TIME TO TIME AROUND AAF IN THE WNW FLOW. CURRENT               
TEMPS ALREADY LOWER THAN FWC MIN TEMP FORECASTS. SO WITH THE MODEL              
STARTING OUT TOO WARM, BELIEVE FWC MAX TEMPS ARE TOO WARM. WILL GO              
CLOSER TO MAV WHICH FITS MAX TEMP FORECAST FROM ETA SOUNDINGS. FOR              
TONIGHT AND BEYOND, WILL SLIDE CHANGES ADVERTISED IN EXISTING                   
FORECAST BACK BY ABOUT A PERIOD. THIS MEANS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES                  
TONIGHT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER FREEZE ACROSS ERN ZONES. A                
BLEND OF TEMP GUIDANCE INDICATES WE WILL NOT MEET HARD FREEZE                   
CRITERIA, BUT WILL SEE A FREEZE IN THE ERN ZONES. HOWEVER,WOULD NOT             
BE SURPRISED IF "NORMALLY COLDER" AREAS DO GET A HARD FREEZE IN                 
SW/SC GA AND THE FL BIG BEND. NPW WILL BE ISSUED BY THE DAY SHIFT IF            
NEEDED. FOR FRI, WILL TRIM BACK POPS FOR FL ZONES TO 20 AND SLIDE               
THE 30 POP INTO FRI NIGHT PERIOD. WILL FAVOR MILDER NGM MAX TEMPS.              
HOWEVER, FEEL NGM COOLS THINGS DOWN TOO FAST FRI NIGHT, SO WILL                 
FOLLOW MAV CLOSELY THERE. WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON SAT.                
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE FORMING ON THE FRONT IN THE                 
GULF, WILL HOLD A 20 POP IN FOR FL ZONES.                                       
MARINE: WEAKNESS IN NE GULF COMPLICATES WIND DIRECTION FORECAST FOR             
TODAY. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AT 06Z, SO               
WILL FOLLOWED FOR TODAY. SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE BUOYS ARE NOW             
BELOW SCEC, WILL DROP THE HEADLINE WITH 0930Z PACKAGE. MARGINAL SCA             
STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IN SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE            
FRONT. WILL KEEP SCEC WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SAT INTO SAT NIGHT WITH            
WINDS DIMINISHING ON SUN.                                                       
FIRE WX: INLAND RED FLAG WARNING AND COASTAL FIRE WX WATCH ALREADY              
IN EFFECT LOOK LIKE GOOD CALLS. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR               
TOMORROW.                                                                       
EXTENDED: WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION FOR MON AND TUE IN             
DEFERENCE TO ECMWF, ALTHOUGH MRF ALSO SHOWS A WEAK GULF LOW.                    
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  56 26 66 48  0023                                                          
PFN  55 38 64 53  0023                                                          
DHN  53 34 60 47  0022                                                          
ABY  53 29 63 46  0022                                                          
VLD  57 28 65 48  0023                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
.AL...NONE.                                                                     
.GA...NONE.                                                                     
.FL...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY ALL INLAND ZONES.                                  
      FIRE WEATHER WATCH TODAY ALL COASTAL ZONES.                               
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
300 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN IS CLOUD COVER TODAY AND CHANCE OF MORE LIGHT SNOW             
OR FLURRIES...THEN HOW FAST TO BRING IN ARCTIC PUSH TONIGHT.                    
CURRENTLY..LOTS OF BREAKS OVER SOUTH BUT LOWER CLOUDS ARE PUSHING               
SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CENTRAL MN. ETA SEEMED TO WANT TO KEEP EXTENSIVE              
HIGHER..LOW LEVEL RH MORE OUT IN EASTERN DAKOTAS. LOOKING UP TO FAR             
NORTH..ANOTHER WEAK VORT IS SLIDING SE TOWARD EAST CENTRAL MN. 06Z              
RUC AND ETA SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE THAN 00Z RUNS. LOOKS LIKE               
BETS CHANCE THROUGH..OVER EAST CENTRAL ON INTO WI. WILL KEEP                    
FLURRIES OVER REST OF EAST.                                                     
ETA HAS SLOWED THE ARCTIC A BIT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS AND LIKE THE               
AVN INITIALIZATION OF 850 TEMPS BETTER. FWC MOS GUIDANCE NOT BAD                
THOUGH...BUT CLOSER TO AVN IN SOUTH. WILL MENTION SOME FLURRIES WITH            
FRONT AND THEN SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW LATER FRIDAY AS             
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES AROUND. PROBABLY STEADY TEMPS OVER MOST                
AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT MAYBE FALLING SOUTH..DEPENDING ON LOWS                      
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
MRF 6-10 DAY 500 HEIGHTS STILL SHOWING SOME PACIFIC FLOW BREAKING               
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AT OUR LATITUDE..BUT NEW UPPER LOW WITH ARCTIC            
REBUILDING OVER FAR N CANADA.                                                   
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
RICHARDSON                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS: TODAY'S SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES.               
ALSO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.                                        
10-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN ONE                
HALF OF CWA WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING LOWS            
IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. JOPLIN AS OF 2 AM WAS REPORTING A MILD              
33 DEGREES. MAIN COLD FRONT STILL IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI WITH                    
READINGS STILL IN THE LOWER 30S BEHIND IT. ALSO NOT MUCH SNOW FLURRY            
ACTIVITY AS WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEM LAST NIGHT.                                    
WILL LEAN TOWARD AN ETA/RUC LOWER CLOUD FIELD TODAY WHICH INDICATES             
MOST OF THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER SHOULD STAY IN THE FAR NE CWA...WITH             
ONLY A FEW MID CLOUDS IN THE SW. THEREFORE WILL TAKE OUT ANY MENTION            
OF SNOW FLURRIES...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE CWA WHERE LOWER CLOUD DECK             
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO REFLECT              
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY IN SW CWA)...SO WENT SLIGHTLY                
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND USED THE ETA FOR A BASE.                                     
NEXT SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT               
WHICH IS MUCH COLDER WITH 85H TEMPERATURES. HAVE DROPPED A FEW                  
DEGREES ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN            
THE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT WEEK...AS STRONG NW CANADIAN/MODIFIED              
ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SOME CONCERNS LATER IN THE                
WEEKEND AS THE AVN IS SHOWING SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO FAR SW                
CWA. HOWEVER AIR MASS IS WAY TOO DRY FOR ANY TYPE OF MEASURABLE                 
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT.                                                         
FCSTID = 25/JLT                                                                 
SGF   39  24  43  16 /   0   0   0   0                                          
JLN   43  25  45  17 /   0   0   0   0                                          
UNO   42  24  43  16 /   0   0   0   0                                          
VIH   36  23  42  15 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
210 AM CST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
ONCE AGAIN WE'VE GOT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BI-STATE AREA               
TONIGHT.  LSX WSR-88D IS SHOWING ECHOS MOVING OVERHEAD ON THE                   
COMPOSITE RIGHT NOW...BUT UPON STANDING OUTSIDE FOR A FEW                       
MINUTES...NOTHING OBSERVED EXCEPT A DECK OF SC.  THE STRONGEST                  
REFLECTIVITIES ON THE COMPOSITE ARE ONLY 24DBZ ANYWAY SO IT LOOKS               
LIKE SNOW JUST ISN'T IN THE CARDS FOR US TONIGHT.  CLOSEST LOW                  
CLOUDS WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE OVER IN                  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS ARE HEADING IN THE WRONG DIRECTION.                
NEAREST UPSTREAM LOW CLOUDS ARE WAY BACK IN NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI               
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...AND NO PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE FALLING            
OUT OF THEM.                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY.                  
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS TONIGHT ARE KEEPING OUR TEMPS ABOUT 5            
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.  INDEED...WHILE                 
LOOKING FOR SNOW OUTSIDE...THE 10 MPH WIND WASN'T THAT BAD EVEN                 
THOUGH IT'S ONLY 25 DEGREES OUTSIDE THE WFO.                                    
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TIL BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z ACCORDING TO THE                
MESOETA WHICH GOES NEUTRAL AFTER THAT WHILE THE RUC WANTS TO HOLD               
ONTO THE WAA THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING NEUTRAL AROUND                 
18Z.  MESOETA RH FIELDS SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE                
CLOUDS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AND THEY INDICATE              
THAT WE'LL BE AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 21Z.  FWC SCATTERS US              
OUT EARLIER...BUT MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE            
ETA.  ETA 2 METER TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAV TEMPS FOR            
THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION.  WITH THAT IN                  
MIND...TEMPERATURES IN THE GOING ZONES FOR TODAY LOOK EXCELLENT.                
WILL PULL ANY MENTION OF SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR THIS MORNING IN                   
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.                                                     
CONTINUING ON...WE'RE SHORTWAVE FREE TIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IT              
LOOKS LIKE WE'LL JUST SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT ONE.  ON INTO THE               
WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL STAY DRY WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKYS.                 
SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER COOLDOWN ON SATURDAY BACK INTO THE TEENS AND                
TWENTIES FOR HIGHS.  SATURDAY NIGHTS LOWS COULD BE ABOUT THE COLDEST            
ALL SEASON WITH AVN 2 METER TEMPS WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER              
THE ENTIRE CWFA.  SUNDAY'S HIGHS LOOK LIKE THE'LL STRUGGLE INTO THE             
20S.  FMR AND MEX GUIDANCE BEARS THIS OUT.                                      
.STL...NONE.                                                                    
CARNEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
230 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
.SHORT TERM...OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE AREAS OF LOW                
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING OVER N CNTRL MT. RUC MODELS SHOWING 90                
PERCENT SURFACE RH LINGERING OVER HVR AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING. WILL            
MENTION AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS CNTRL AND N CNTRL ZONES              
BURNING OFF BY AFTERNOON. NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM FOCUSES ON COLD                 
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING INTO MT FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM                      
COINCIDES WITH BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH PUSHES THROUGH A COL             
IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND MOVES OVER SW MT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.               
MODELS BRING ENOUGH UVV AND MOISTURE FOR GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE             
VALLEYS. PLAINS ZONES HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT WILL NOT            
RULE OUT ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO PRODUCE FLURRIES FOR WRN AND SRN                 
MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK AS COLD           
WITH SYSTEM AS EARLIER RUNS. THIS APPARENTLY DUE TO MODELS HOLDING              
BACK SURFACE HIGH OVER ALTA SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. MPJ                             
.EXTENDED...COLD AIR THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND TO             
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MRF AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT             
WITH KEEPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER CANADA IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT                
WEEK...WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE           
WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...             
BUT FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEAK...CONFINING SNOW TO MAINLY THE              
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE PLAINS.                     
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND               
WEDNESDAY...AS MORE OF A DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...FEEL            
MODELS ARE ERODING THE COLD AIR AWAY TOO QUICKLY. CURRENT FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. VILLANI                               
.CCF NUMBERS                                                                    
GTF BM 033/012 020/004 016 14012                                                
   EEEEE 907/014 001/022 006/028 010/030 010 11122111111                        
CTB BM 040/010 018/902 012 14012                                                
   EEEEE 904/010 001/015 005/023 007/028 007 11112111111                        
HLN BJ 022/004 020/000 016 14024                                                
   EEEEE 905/016 903/019 002/021 009/027 009 31123111111                        
BZN UJ 028/005 025/004 018 14024                                                
   EEEEE 905/017 000/017 005/020 007/024 007 31123111111                        
WEY UJ 007/917 008/917 010 14035                                                
   EEEEE 922/007 915/008 910/010 908/012 908 31123111111                        
DLN BJ 030/012 027/009 027 14035                                                
   EEEEE 005/022 007/023 008/024 014/029 014 22122111111                        
HVR BE 033/006 016/906 008 14001                                                
   EEBBE 912/003 908/011 902/016 005/020 005 10112111111                        
LWT BE 038/012 020/001 015 14002                                                
   ECCBC 905/010 001/016 005/020 010/025 010 11112211111                        
.TFX...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
845 PM CST WED DEC 26 2001                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS TEMPERATURES AND PCPN.                   
TOUGH TO RESOLVE ANY BREAKS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IN OTHERWISE                  
LAYERED CLOUD SHIELD IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER AREA. WINNIPEG                 
SITTING AT 5 ABOVE HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART SOLID CLOUD COVER                  
RESULTING IN FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES FROM 15 TO 20. EVEN MILDER             
TEMPS UPSTREAM AND WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO FALL            
MUCH OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING THROUGH FA ATTM WITH MOST               
-SN AND EVEN SOME SPOTTY FZDZ WEST AND NORTHWEST OF FORECAST AREA.              
THIS LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM RUC                   
ANALYSIS FROM SASK THROUGH WEST HALF OF DAKOTAS. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN             
FLURRIES HOWEVER WILL BE ON LOOKOUT FOR ANY FZDZ THAT POPS UP.                  
WILL TAKE A LAST LOOK AT TEMPS HOWEVER ANY CHANGES WILL BE MINOR.               
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
255 AM MST THU DEC 27 2001                                                      
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO LEAVE CWFA UNDER NW-N FLOW. PRESSURE              
FALLS ALREADY NOTED JUST NORTH OF CWFA...AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIVING              
SOUTH OUT OF SRN CANADA. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CLOUD                       
COVER...AND THUS HIGH TEMPS.                                                    
EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS CUTTING CWFA IN HALF ATTM. LATEST SAT PIX SHOW               
WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS OVR ERN MT BUILDING A TAD FURTHER SOUTH.                 
BASED ON LO LVL WINDS AND PROGGED LAYER RH'S...CLOUD EDGE SHOULD NOT            
PUSH MUCH FURTHER W ACRS CWFA. HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE                  
ADJUSTED A BIT BASED ON LATER SAT PIX AND THE 09Z RUC.  TEMPS UNDER             
CLOUD COVER TDY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 30...WHERE AS CLOUD FREE ZONE            
WILL MIX INTO THE 40S.                                                          
FOR TNGT AND FRI...NEXT PUSH OF COLD AIR SWEEPS ACROSS ZONES FOR                
ANOTHER BOUT OF WINDS...ALTHOUGH WARNING CRITERIA NOT ANTICIPATED.              
AGAIN...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SO EXPECT LITTLE IN WAY OF QPF. A            
WEAKER SURGE OF COLD AIR PUNCHES THROUGH SAT WITH SAME LIMITED                  
MOISTURE.                                                                       
EXTENDED...CURRENT FCST HANDLES SITUATION WELL...AND WILL MAKE NO               
ADJUSTMENTS. COLD CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS NRN PLAINS                  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO             
PCPN. COLD SFC HIGH MIGRATES S OF AREA BY MIDWEEK AS WARM UPR HIGH              
OVR CANADA SPRDS S OVER REGION...FOR A RETURN OF 'WARMER' TEMPS.                
IF CURRENT DRY TREND HOLDS...THIS WILL BE THE ONLY DECEMBER IN KRAP             
RECORDED HISTORY WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE PCPN.                                   
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
JOHNSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1100 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
SURFACE LOW POSITIONED JUST NE OF THE SAULT CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE              
COLD AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THUS CONTINUING THE LAKE EFFECT               
SNOW MACHINE. MORNING APX SOUNDING WAS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH DEEP                
MOISTURE EXTENDING UP THROUGH ABOUT 600 MB. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...                
DEPTH OF MOISTURE/CONVECTION ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF                  
-14/-15C ARE PROVIDING AN EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOW                  
PRODUCTION. THE MAIN AFTERNOON QUESTION IS WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW              
WILL OCCUR.                                                                     
OVERNIGHT...10 TO 15 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL ACROSS PARTS OF EMMET              
AND CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES (BRINGING 36 HR TOTALS UP TO 2-3 FEET).                 
HOWEVER...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK             
SURFACE BOUNDARY PAST 2-4 HOURS...WHICH HAS CAUSED WEST-SOUTHWEST               
SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST (A WIND SHIFT OF ONLY               
ABOUT 20 DEG). THIS HAS CAUSED THE HEAVIEST BANDS TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD            
A BIT. SO THE RELENTLESS SNOWS ACROSS CHARLEVOIX...EMMET...AND                  
CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES HAVE SLACKENED FOR THE TIME BEING...WHILE THE                
SNOW ACROSS ANTRIM/LEELANAU COUNTY HAS INCREASED.                               
THE RUC AND MESO-ETA BOTH SHOW ENHANCED LAKE TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPING            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO TURN BACK TO THE WSW              
ONCE AGAIN. AS A RESULT...AM INCLINED TO KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND              
ADVISORIES BASICALLY UNCHANGED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS                    
LEELANAU AND ANTRIM COUNTIES...WHERE OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL OF 6-7                  
INCHES...TOGETHER WITH TODAY/S ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRODUCE 24 HR                 
SNOWFALLS EXCEEDING 8 INCHES. WILL THEREFORE HOIST WARNINGS FOR                 
THESE TWO COUNTIES. IN CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...WHERE SNOWS HAVE DECREASED            
SIGNIFICANTLY...EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 20Z.              
.APX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                 
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON...MIZ020-021.                  
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY....THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...                 
SMITH                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD, VA                                          
1000 AM EST THU DEC 27 2001                                                     
VORT MAX WL MOV ACRS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENG. VORT IS                 
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MID CLDS. LOOKING AT 06Z ETA AND CURRENT RUC                
THIS MID CLD THINS AS IT MOVES E AND MAY ONLY CAUSE A BRIEF PERIOD              
OF BKN ACRS THE NRN CWA. WL HOLD ON TO A MSTLY SUNNY FCST. CURRENT              
TEMPS FCST LOOKS GOOD. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.                          
DROPPING SCA AS WINDS SHD STAY UNDER THRU THE AFTN WITH A JUST A FEW            
GUSTS APPROACHING. SEAS WL REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA WITH W WINDS.                  
FCSTID = 92                                                                     
SBY   41  26  45  26 /  10  10  10  10                                          
OXB   42  29  44  29 /  10  10  10  10                                          
ECG   45  32  50  32 /  10  10  10  10                                          
ORF   45  32  50  32 /  10  10  10  10                                          
PHF   43  30  46  30 /  10  10  10  10                                          
AKQ   42  27  46  27 /  10  10  10  10                                          
RIC   41  26  45  26 /  10  10  10  10                                          
FVX   42  27  46  27 /  10  10  10  10                                          
.AKQ...                                                                         
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
92                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va