AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ                                              
950 AM MST SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND A NEARLY               
STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL                
RESULT IN MORE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THIS UPPER LOW                
WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY. UNTIL THEN                
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. BY                   
WEDNESDAY THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST                    
ARIZONA EVEN THOUGH MOST THE TUCSON POPULATION CENTER MISSED OUT ON             
THE HEAVY RAIN. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BATCH OF RAIN ACROSS              
PARTS OF COCHISE AND CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS                  
ACTIVITY WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES NOTED ON                 
SATELLITE ACROSS PIMA COUNTY FOR THE TIME BEING. LATEST MODELS STILL            
ADVERTISED DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY                   
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO DRY THE REGION OUT BY MID NEXT                
WEEK. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE FLASH FLOODING BASED ON              
THE AMOUNT OF RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST FOUR DAYS. STILL A FEW                     
RIVER CONCERNS...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AND                  
WIDESPREAD LAST NIGHT TO SEE ANY FLOODING OF THE RIVERS OR LARGER               
WASHES TODAY. ALTHOUGH...SEVERAL RIVERS AND WASHES WILL LIKELY                  
EXPERIENCE HIGH FLOWS FOR SOME OF TODAY BEFORE RECEDING. TIMING OF              
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE TRICKY TODAY. THE RUC MODEL SUGGESTED             
THAT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION OVER SOUTHEAST                
ARIZONA TO WARRANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING. THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENT TREND IN THE TIMING              
OF RAINFALL THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THE PAST FOUR DAYS WITH THE             
HIGHEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL              
MONITOR ANY NEW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OUR NORTH AND IF NOTHING SHOWS            
UP BY NOON...WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.                
ALSO...MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AFTERNOON               
AND EVENING HOURS AND MAKE IT IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY            
TO COVER THE MAIN RAINFALL THREAT. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED DISCUSSION             
IF THIS HAPPENS AROUND NOON MST.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN CULPRIT DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY SINCE                 
FRIDAY IS THE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER               
ALBUQUERQUE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AROUND FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS             
BEFORE GETTING KICKED NORTHEAST AS PACIFIC NW TROF MOVES INLAND. SO             
AFTER ANOTHER ACTIVE MORNING...CONDITIONS SHOULD QUIET DOWN THIS                
AFTERNOON...THEN PICK UP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW                         
NORMAL...EXCEPT OUT IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WHERE THEY WILL ONLY BE A            
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                                                       
A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY AND BE              
AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS             
FLOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING UP BACK            
INTO A NORMAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WITH                
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY AUGUST.               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY COVER ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER             
AT KTUS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH PUBLIC ZONES               
 AZZ019-029>035 UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING.                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES            
TO HOLD ITS GROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO                     
EXPERIENCE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS            
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS RIDGE            
IS BOUNDED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND A WEAK             
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST               
U.S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN RIPPLING THROUGH THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT LAKES                   
REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ALONG               
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE             
MOVES ASHORE IT WILL HELP TO GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE A KICK TO THE EAST            
BRINGING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE                  
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.                                                      
CLOSER TO HOME...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR ARE DURING THE             
DAY ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE            
AXIS WILL STAY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING            
WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW             
LEVELS FAIRLY MOIST AND AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION.                            
HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVELS UNDER THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY AND              
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING POPS BACK TO 10-20% BELOW CLIMO. IT IS POSSIBLE            
THAT THE FORECAST AREA MAY COME UNDER THE PARTIAL INFLUENCE OF A                
TROPICAL WAVE OR TWO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...THAT COULD BRIEFLY              
ADD MORE MOISTURE TO THE MIX AND BRING POPS UP. AS IS USUAL...THE               
GUIDANCE IS HAVING A HARD TIME PINNING THESE FEATURES DOWN.                     
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                                             
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER            
OF THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING PROFILE              
WITH 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DISTRIBUTED THINLY THROUGH THE COLUMN IS NOT             
CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND                
GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT LOCALIZED STREET/SMALL STREAM                  
FLOODING UNDER STRONGER STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.              
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL WASH OUT OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST            
AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SE U.S.                   
(MENTIONED ABOVE) WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING            
HOURS. WEAK DPVA AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH            
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING INTO             
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 40                
RANGE...EVEN AFTER SUNSET AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST            
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY GO FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                                  
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER DAY FOR OUR AREA LOOKS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. UPPER             
RIDGE CENTER WILL BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL             
RIDGE CONTINUING TO RESIDE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM             
THE WEST SHOULD YIELD NEAR CLIMO POPS (40-50) ACROSS MOST OF THE                
AREA. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA             
AT THE MID-LEVELS WITH THE NAM SHOWING MORE. EVEN WITH THE NAM                  
SOLUTION PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH AROUND 1500             
J/KG OF AFTERNOON CAPE. GFS IS MUCH MORE MOIST WITH PW VALUES STILL             
JUST ABOVE 2" AND AROUND 2000-2200 J/KG OF CAPE. TAKING A BLEND OF              
THE TWO WOULD YIELDS THE 40-50 POPS SEEN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.               
WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER THEN SEEN TODAY AND THE RISING HEIGHTS WITH THE            
UPPER RIDGE...EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S               
MOST LOCATIONS WITH MIDDLE 90S POSSIBLE OVER AL/GA ZONES. WITH THE              
SHOWERS/TSTORMS BEING DIURNAL DRIVEN...DO EXPECT THINGS TO QUIET                
DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT                  
NIGHT.                                                                          
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT WILL RETURN FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH THE                
RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SUPPRESSED                 
SLIGHTLY (30-40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA). WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER DO TO               
LESS CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE 500MB HEIGHTS WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS INLAND                              
LOCATIONS...WARMEST CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS OUR AL/GA ZONES.                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                        
THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WEDNESDAY THROUGH                   
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE                 
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF             
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER                
PATTERN WITH HIGH POPS...BUT OPTED TO STICK WITH MID RANGE CHANCE               
POPS EACH FOR NOW.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE                      
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL AND             
OFFSHORE WATERS. WIND AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION             
LEVELS...HOWEVER BOTH MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY              
THUNDERSTORMS. OFFSHORE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD FOR THE            
BEGINNING AND MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUED             
BELOW CAUTION LEVELS. A POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE FLORIDA             
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BRING AN            
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE COASTAL              
WATERS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE VISIBILITY AND             
CEILING WILL BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR-MVFR IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY              
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT            
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS. VSBYS              
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED IN EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBY                 
RESTRICTION LIKELY CONTINUING PAST SUNSET. VFR CONDS WILL CONT AFT              
00Z WITH MVFR FOR VSBYS 08Z-12Z ACROSS MOST INLAND TERMINALS.                   
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
NO CONCERNS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO RECENT                  
AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP                        
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  73 91 73 95/ 40 40 20 35                                           
PANAMA CITY  77 90 77 91/ 40 35 20 30                                           
DOTHAN       72 91 73 95/ 40 40 20 30                                           
ALBANY       73 93 74 96/ 35 35 20 30                                           
VALDOSTA     72 92 73 96/ 40 40 20 35                                           
CROSS CITY   74 90 74 93/ 40 40 20 35                                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
LONG TERM...BARRY                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON                 
FEATURE HAZY SUNSHINE (THROUGH SUSPENDED AFRICAN DUST) ALONG WITH               
DRY CONDITIONS. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE HAS YET TO SET IN AS OF THIS              
WRITING...SO WHETHER ANY STORMS DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL              
LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IS IN QUESTION.                  
STILL...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS THE POSSIBILITY IS STILL                
OUT THERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATEST WRF AND RUC RUNS ARE ACTUALLY           
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION INITIATING ACROSS              
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.                       
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA                
TONIGHT. THEN...MUCH THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED            
AGAIN TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST                  
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE                 
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FL MONDAY. WILL MAINTAIN JUST               
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER INTERIOR AREAS.                                         
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE STATES WILL PULL OUT AND MID LEVEL                 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TUE-WED. THIS ACTUALLY               
ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FL FROM THE NORTHEAST...WITH                 
GFS SHOWING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE                  
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING OF INCREASING POPS TUE-                         
WED...REACHING SCATTERED CATEGORY/NEAR CLIMO BY WED...AND                       
CONTINUING THROUGH WEEKS END.                                                   
THE TROPICS REMAIN RATHER QUIET...BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING                 
THINGS SHOULD START REVVING UP OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. GFS SHOWS               
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK AT THIS                 
TIME.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE                       
PERIOD...SO NO CONCERNS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...RH'S COULD FALL TO NEAR 40 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS              
OVER INTERIOR AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ARE              
NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  76  91 / 10 10 10 30                                   
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  91 / 10 10 10 20                                   
MIAMI            80  92  79  92 / 10 10 10 20                                   
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  - 10  - 20                                   
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
955 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ALIGNED JUST NORTH OF LAKE                     
OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...AT UPPER LEVELS...SOUTH FL                 
IS BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OVER               
THE BAHAMAS. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA IN A BROAD SCALE SUBSIDENCE          
REGIME. THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A DRY ATMOSPHERE FOR                   
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.45 INCHES. THERE IS               
A PRETTY GOOD INVERSION BETWEEN 3500-6000 FEET WITH VERY DRY AIR                
ABOVE THIS INVERSION. GIVEN THIS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY FOR               
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR                  
TWO STORMS WINNING THE BATTLE OVER THE SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN                  
INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS...SHOWN BY THE RUC. STRONG HEATING              
INTO THE MID 90S ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS (GPS                
MET DATA SHOWING PWATS NEAR 1.7 INCHES) AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE                     
CONVERGENCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR                
ONE OR TWO STORMS TO POP OVER WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COASTAL AREAS.              
THUS...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.                                      
IF A STORM DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...IT COULD BECOME STRONG...MAINLY             
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES DUE TO DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STEEP MID                   
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS...WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK                 
TO SHOW A GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS                
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS.                                          
ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD HAZY SUNSHINE WORDING. SUSPENDED AFRICAN       
DUST CAME INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE                   
WHICH CROSSED THE AREA EARLY YESTERDAY MORNING. SAL ANALYSIS SHOWS              
THIS DUST IN PLACE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO SOUTH FL...SO A                  
HAZY DAY IS EXPECTED.                                                           
COASTAL WATERS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH PREVAILING WINDS AT THE C-MAN               
STATIONS ESE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. /DG                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
DISCUSSION...DRY AIR ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE                
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO MOVE OVER S FLA. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES               
SW...THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER S FLA TODAY THROUGH TUE. LOW               
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD IMPORTING LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE BUT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE LIMITED...ISOLATED (10%) E                 
COAST AND MAINLY NOCTURNAL (BUT NOT WORTH PUTTING INTO THE E COAST              
ZONES AT THIS TIME)...TO WIDELY SCATTERED (20%) AND MAINLY DIURNAL              
/EARLY EVE INTERIOR AND W. TEMPS SEASONABLE AND POPS BELOW NORMS                
TODAY THROUGH TUE.                                                              
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 70W...EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION               
ACROSS E CARIB...WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH TOWARD S FLA. UPPER WINDS CIR           
-CULATING ABOUT UPPER LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS THOUGH SHEAR THIS MASS OF            
CONVECTION BUT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD S FLA.           
WHEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GULF WED...UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE                
SOUTHERLY...PULLING THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE N AND OVER S FLA WED            
THROUGH FRI. INCREASED POPS TO MORE NORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                  
MARINE...EASTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH PERIOD. WIND                  
BECOMES E/NE TUE AS WAVE APPROACHES...THEN SE WED/THU BEHIND WAVE.              
FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE HIGHLIGHT                
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AM...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES            
TO HOLD ITS GROUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AREAS UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE CONTINUE TO                     
EXPERIENCE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HEAT ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS            
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. THIS RIDGE            
IS BOUNDED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND A WEAK             
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST               
U.S. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN RIPPLING THROUGH THE                  
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT LAKES                   
REGION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH CAN BE SEEN DIGGING ALONG               
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE             
MOVES ASHORE IT WILL HELP TO GIVE THE UPPER RIDGE A KICK TO THE EAST            
BRINGING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE                  
MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.                                                      
CLOSER TO HOME...THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER OUR ARE DURING THE            
DAY ON MONDAY. GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE            
AXIS WILL STAY GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING            
WEEK. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP THE LOW             
LEVELS FAIRLY MOIST AND AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION...DESPITE DRIER             
MID-LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...LATE MORNING INTO EVENING HOURS.                                  
DAY BEGINNING ON A GENERALLY QUIET NOTE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING TO              
FILTER THE SUN AND SLOW DIURNAL HEATING. THESE CLOUDS ARE RESULTING             
FROM A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE               
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA...BOTH AIDING IN MOISTURE ADVECTION              
INTO THE REGION. DPVA COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR                         
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP AREA              
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GA AND                
EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA GOING. LOCAL RADARS SHOW THIS AREA OF SHOWERS              
AND STORMS SINKING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND SHOULD BE ENTERING             
OUR NORTHERN AL/GA ZONES DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. GUIDANCE IN            
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THESE DYNAMICS SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING IS QUITE              
MOIST THROUGHOUT ALMOST THE ENTIRE COLUMN WITH A RESULTING PW OF                
JUST OVER 2". THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THE AREA WILL                
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT TODAY WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S               
MORE COMMON THAN LOWER 90S. MODIFYING LOCAL SOUNDINGS FOR THESE                 
EXPECTED CONDITIONS GIVES AROUND OR JUST OVER 2000 J/KG OF CAPE.                
WITH THE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC PROFILE THROUGH A VERY DEEP                     
LAYER...THIS CAPE HAS A THIN DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE COLUMN...NOT              
REALLY CONDUCIVE TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT RATHER FOR              
HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR FAIRLY EARLY CONVECTIVE                 
INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH DECENT SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE BY MID            
AFTERNOON. GOING POP FORECAST OF HIGH CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL LOOK ON             
TRACK.                                                                          
A BIT MORE FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY THAN WHAT WAS                           
OBSERVED THE PAST TWO DAYS...AND THEREFORE CONVECTION SHOULD SHOW               
MORE MOVEMENT. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED             
OUT DUE TO THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IF               
ANY CONVECTIVE TRAINING SCENARIO SETS UP.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION              
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COASTAL AND                  
OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS                
AWAY FROM ANY STORMS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE VISIBILITY AND             
CEILING WILL BE OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR-MVFR IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT WILL OCCUR IN THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT            
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THESE STORMS. VSBYS              
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE RESTRICTED IN EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBY                 
RESTRICTION LIKELY CONTINUING PAST SUNSET.                                      
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN                   
ADDITION TO RECENT RAINFALL AND FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY             
OR TWO WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE               
CRITICAL LEVELS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOCK                                                        
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
830 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING              
HAS PRETTY MUCH DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...AT LEAST TWO OUTFLOW                      
BOUNDARIES ARE STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE SURFACE DATA. ONE LIES                  
ACROSS NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN AND VERMILION COUNTIES...AND A STRONGER               
ONE IS SPREADING RADIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS STORMS NEAR EFFINGHAM.              
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXIST TONIGHT AS THEY DID LAST NIGHT...WITH                  
OCCASIONAL NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN            
ILLINOIS. AM THEREFORE HESITANT TO REMOVE ISOLATED STORMS FROM THE              
FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH CAPPING IS INCREASING WITH THE            
LOSS OF SUNSHINE...THE 00Z LINCOLN SOUNDING SHOWS SUFFICIENT                    
MOISTURE ABOVE THE CAP TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION. SOME OF THE              
UPDRAFTS COULD BE QUITE ROBUST PER THE 5400 J/KG CAPE ON THE                    
SOUNDING...ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVING               
CELLS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD RATHER THAN STRONG                 
WINDS OR HAIL.                                                                  
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS TO SEE IF WE              
NEED TO EXTEND THE ISOLATED POPS BEYOND MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER IN THE               
MEANTIME SEE LITTLE NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS ARE HEAT INDICES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE                  
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC             
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR EAST              
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS            
KEEPS US MORE MOIST...WHILE NAM-WRF BRINGS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO             
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE LOWER                
DEWPOINTS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE                        
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MISSOURI. HOWEVER...FEEL                
THAT THIS WILL ONLY PUT A SMALL DENT IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS            
OUR AREA. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL                
HELP REDUCE THE HEAT INDEX THAT MUCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW THE              
AIR WARM UP TO HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS...THUS KEEPING THE HEAT                 
INDEX NUMBERS AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SO...IN THE SHORT TERM...I LOWERED            
THE DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST...BUT KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP               
NEAR 100.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS THIS MORNING IN                           
WISCONSIN...IS PROGRESSING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU FORMATION               
ALONG THAT OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON                  
PROGRESSES. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT              
WITHOUT A TRIGGER. CAPE VALUES OF 3K-4K J/KG. THE HIGHER LAPSE                  
RATES REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...PER RUC                       
SOUNDINGS... AND CU FIELD FILLED IN MORE FULLY THERE.                           
HOWEVER...STILL GETTING TOWERING CU IN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN OUR FAR               
WESTERN CWA. THIS AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING                
NORTH OVER THE H5 RIDGE. ORIGINALLY FELT THAT STORMS WOULD BE MORE              
LIKELY IN OUR EASTERN HALF...SO I ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THAT AREA                
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED              
IN A SIMILAR SITUATION FROM LAST AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LINE OF                 
STORMS FROM THE OUTFLOW STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO REACH OUR EASTERN                
ZONES BY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
DESPITE THE POSSIBLE LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL                 
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS. WITHOUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER              
DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS REACHING OVER 110                
HEAT INDEX READINGS /EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LEVELS/ WOULD HAVE                  
BEEN BETTER. KEPT HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.                          
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
THE GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH                    
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IN THE EUROPEAN              
MODELS IS TO SLOW IT DOWN...AND TO STALL THE FRONT OUT CLOSER TO                
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. I                   
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND                     
SUNDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH CWA/S SOUTH OF US.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/SHIMON                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
304 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS ARE HEAT INDICES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE                  
HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC             
PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT HAVE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAR EAST THE          
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO ILLINOIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS                
KEEPS US MORE MOIST...WHILE NAM-WRF BRINGS UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS                  
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF THE                 
LOWER DEWPOINTS MAKING PROGRESS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE                  
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MISSOURI. HOWEVER...FEEL                
THAT THIS WILL ONLY PUT A SMALL DENT IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY                   
ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRIER AIR              
WILL HELP REDUCE THE HEAT INDEX THAT MUCH. THE DRIER AIR WILL                   
ALLOW THE AIR WARM UP TO HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS...THUS KEEPING                
THE HEAT INDEX NUMBERS AT ADVISORY LEVELS. SO...IN THE SHORT                    
TERM...I LOWERED THE DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST...BUT KEPT THE              
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 100.                                                       
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.                                           
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS THIS MORNING IN                           
WISCONSIN...IS PROGRESSING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU FORMATION               
ALONG THAT OUTFLOW IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON                  
PROGRESSES. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR CWA REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE...BUT              
WITHOUT A TRIGGER. CAPE VALUES OF 3K-4K J/KG. THE HIGHER LAPSE                  
RATES REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA...PER RUC                       
SOUNDINGS... AND CU FIELD FILLED IN MORE FULLY THERE.                           
HOWEVER...STILL GETTING TOWERING CU IN SCHUYLER COUNTY IN OUR FAR               
WESTERN CWA. THIS AREA IS IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 SHORTWAVE LIFTING                
NORTH OVER THE H5 RIDGE. ORIGINALLY FELT THAT STORMS WOULD BE MORE              
LIKELY IN OUR EASTERN HALF...SO I ADDED CHANCE POPS TO THAT AREA                
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED              
IN A SIMILAR SITUATION FROM LAST AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LINE OF                 
STORMS FROM THE OUTFLOW STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO REACH OUR EASTERN                
ZONES BY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
DESPITE THE POSSIBLE LOWER DEWPOINTS...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL                 
REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING DUE TO THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DRY BULB READINGS. WITHOUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER              
DEWPOINTS...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS REACHING OVER 110                
HEAT INDEX READINGS /EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LEVELS/ WOULD HAVE                  
BEEN BETTER. KEPT HEAT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TUESDAY.                          
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                            
THE GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH                    
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND IN THE EUROPEAN              
MODELS IS TO SLOW IT DOWN...AND TO STALL THE FRONT OUT CLOSER TO                
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. I                   
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND                     
SUNDAY IN COLLABORATION WITH CWA/S SOUTH OF US.                                 
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHIMON                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1042 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHRT TERM CONCERNS PREDICATED ON INTENSE FWD PROPAGATING SVR MCS                
CROSSING CNTRL LK MI ATTM. LG SCALE OFB CONTS TO PUSH AND ABT TO                
CROSS INTO NRN IL W/LTL REDVLPMNT NOTED OVR SW WI/NW IL AND LIKELY A            
GOOD PROXY FOR ERN EDGE OF MID LVL CAPPING INVERSION. FARTHER                   
EAST...MORE SIG REDVLPMNT TAKING PLACE OVR SE WI/NE IL ALG                      
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITHIN WAA REGIME AND SUSPECT THIS WILL REMAIN             
THE CASE INTO THIS AFTN. SVR THREAT ASSOCD/W MCS SHLD MAINTAIN AS IT            
CONTS TO DROP SEWD W/DAMAGING WIND THREAT XPCD ALG AND NORTH OF A               
LAPORTE TO DEFIANCE LINE THIS AFTN. SRN EXTENT OF OFB PUSH MAY POSE             
AN ADDNL STORM RISK LTR TONIGHT IN ASSOCN/W INCREASING SWRLY LLJ AS             
PLAIN RIDGE SHIFTS EWD. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLD DEBRIS WILL                  
HAMPER DEGREE OF WARMING ACRS NRN THIRD AND DROPPED THE HEAT                    
ADVISORY THERE. ALL PERTINENT PRODUCT UPDATES OUT.                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
CONVN A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY TDA AND A BIG CHALLENGE GIVEN SVR CONV            
COMPLEX OVER NRN/CNTRL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING DROPPING SEWD ALG ERN             
EDGE OF HOT PLAINS RIDGE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 12Z               
RAOBS SHLD OFFER SOME FURTHER CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MCS               
HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DROPS INTO THE SRN LAKES BY THIS AFTN ESP IN               
LIEU OF QUESTIONABLE SHRT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR               
VSBY IN MIST/HAZE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX TO VFR CONDS. SHLD              
SEE ANOTHER PD OF MVFR VSBY TWD DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL CONT TO                   
MONITOR W/POTENTIAL UPDATES OUT BY MID MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                                           
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE                
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY                 
WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE SOME                   
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...RAISED               
HIGH TEMP FOR BENTON HARBOR WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED                 
TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE                  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE               
ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.                              
DECREASED CLOUDINESS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS              
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS ACROSS              
THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS DECREASING EACH              
DAY WITH STRONG EVAPORATION OF MOISTURE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS                 
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE GROUND MOISTURE...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT             
OF TONIGHTS FORECAST.                                                           
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA              
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD                 
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF            
STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER               
THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY TRAVEL SOUTHEAST SO ELECTED TO               
KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                        
UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY MONDAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE FORECAST.  THE BIG               
WEATHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING DAYTIME                
TEMPERATURES.  AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSION THE LAST                 
COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF GROUND MOISTURE ACRS              
THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINS.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE WITH EACH                      
SUCCESSIVE DAY OF EVAPORATION...THERE WILL BE LESS OF IT WITH                   
TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCH UP TWO            
DEGREES ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  THUS...WILL EVENTUALLY                 
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY.  WITH                   
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT TIMES...HEAT             
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTN             
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE                 
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH LOCAL ADVISORY               
CRITERIA IS NOT BASED ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...THESE READINGS WILL BE                
QUITE WARM MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL PASS THIS                
INFORMATION ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AND LET THEM DECIDE...BASED ON                   
FORECASTER DISCRETION...WHETHER THE NEXT HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE                 
SHOULD COVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN JUST THE AFTN AND EARLY               
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
THE UPR LVL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY              
INTO THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACRS            
THE GULF COAST/SE STATES...ALLOWING FOR A MID LVL TROF AND AN ASSOCD            
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH A            
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST CANADIAN AND            
ECMWF MODELS.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT FAST.              
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE ERN CWFA ON WEDNESDAY              
...RELEGATING SMALL CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN.                
HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  WITH THE DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTN              
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE JUST AS HOT AS TUESDAY/S READINGS.             
FOR NOW...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER             
90S.  LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF TEMPS SHOULD BE            
TWEAK A LITTLE HIGHER.                                                          
ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON                         
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS              
WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW                  
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8                 
     PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR                                         
     INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-                          
     INZ017-INZ018-INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-                   
     INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                                               
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.                             
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LAMBERTY                                                           
LONG TERM....HICKMAN                                                            
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
721 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
CONVN A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY TDA AND A BIG CHALLENGE GIVEN SVR CONV            
COMPLEX OVER NRN/CNTRL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING DROPPING SEWD ALG ERN             
EDGE OF HOT PLAINS RIDGE AND IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 12Z               
RAOBS SHLD OFFER SOME FURTHER CLUES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS MCS               
HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT DROPS INTO THE SRN LAKES BY THIS AFTN ESP IN               
LIEU OF QUESTIONABLE SHRT TERM RUC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE BRIEF MVFR               
VSBY IN MIST/HAZE THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MIX TO VFR CONDS. SHLD              
SEE ANOTHER PD OF MVFR VSBY TWD DAYBREAK MONDAY. WILL CONT TO                   
MONITOR W/POTENTIAL UPDATES OUT BY MID MORNING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.                                                           
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE                
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY                 
WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MADE SOME                   
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY...RAISED               
HIGH TEMP FOR BENTON HARBOR WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED                 
TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE                  
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON SO A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE               
ENTIRE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.                              
DECREASED CLOUDINESS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS              
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING HIGH IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS ACROSS              
THE AREA. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR                   
TONIGHT...BUT WARM AND MUGGY. THE CHANCE OF FOG IS DECREASING EACH              
DAY WITH STRONG EVAPORATION OF MOISTURE FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS                 
CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE GROUND MOISTURE...SO LEFT MENTION OF FOG OUT             
OF TONIGHTS FORECAST.                                                           
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA              
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THIS TIME IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD                 
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A COUPLE OF            
STORMS MAY MAKE IT TO NORTHWEST OHIO LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER               
THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THEY TRAVEL SOUTHEAST SO ELECTED TO               
KEEP THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                        
UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE LOWER OHIO             
VALLEY MONDAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS ARE FORECAST.  THE BIG               
WEATHER FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING DAYTIME                
TEMPERATURES.  AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN OUR DISCUSSION THE LAST                 
COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF GROUND MOISTURE ACRS              
THE REGION FROM RECENT RAINS.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE WITH EACH                      
SUCCESSIVE DAY OF EVAPORATION...THERE WILL BE LESS OF IT WITH                   
TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO INCH UP TWO            
DEGREES ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.  THUS...WILL EVENTUALLY                 
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ALL LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY.  WITH                   
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID 70S AT TIMES...HEAT             
INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTN             
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  AS A RESULT...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE                 
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH LOCAL ADVISORY               
CRITERIA IS NOT BASED ON OVERNIGHT LOWS...THESE READINGS WILL BE                
QUITE WARM MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.  WILL PASS THIS                
INFORMATION ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AND LET THEM DECIDE...BASED ON                   
FORECASTER DISCRETION...WHETHER THE NEXT HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE                 
SHOULD COVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN JUST THE AFTN AND EARLY               
EVENING HOURS.                                                                  
THE UPR LVL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY              
INTO THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED UPR LVL HIGH BECOMES SUPPRESSED ACRS            
THE GULF COAST/SE STATES...ALLOWING FOR A MID LVL TROF AND AN ASSOCD            
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH A            
SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS ADVERTISED BY THE LATEST CANADIAN AND            
ECMWF MODELS.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE A BIT FAST.              
HENCE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE ERN CWFA ON WEDNESDAY              
...RELEGATING SMALL CHC POPS TO THE WRN CWFA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTN.                
HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  WITH THE DELAY OF THE COLD FRONT...AFTN              
HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE JUST AS HOT AS TUESDAY/S READINGS.             
FOR NOW...HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER             
90S.  LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE IF TEMPS SHOULD BE            
TWEAK A LITTLE HIGHER.                                                          
ONCE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC             
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON                         
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY.  THIS              
WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW                  
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES              
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL LOWER THE                  
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH               
LIGHT WINDS HIGH DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS                 
STILL POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH FORT WAYNE HAVING THE BETTER              
CHANCE OF FOG. DECREASED VISIBILITY FOR THIS MORNING TO TEMPO IFR               
...KEPT MVFR VISIBILITY AT SOUTH BEND. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT               
ANTICIPATED WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD             
THE AREA THIS MORNING.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM              
     EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR INZ003-INZ004-INZ005-INZ006-               
     INZ007-INZ008-INZ009-INZ012-INZ013-INZ014-INZ015-INZ016-                   
     INZ017-INZ018-INZ020-INZ022-INZ023-INZ024-INZ025-INZ026-                   
     INZ027-INZ032-INZ033-INZ034.                                               
MI...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR MIZ077-MIZ078-MIZ079-MIZ080-MIZ081.                                    
OH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING            
     FOR OHZ001-OHZ002-OHZ004-OHZ005-OHZ015-OHZ016-OHZ024-OHZ025.               
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LAMBERTY                                                           
LONG TERM....HICKMAN                                                            
AVIATION...HOLSTEN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FCST ISSUE OVERNIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL OF             
SVR STORMS.                                                                     
SHRA/TSRA THAT WERE FIRING IN NE MN AND THEN SLIDING SE INTO UPPER              
MI IN A REGION OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS HAVE RECENTLY ENDED AS                
FRONTOGENESIS HAS WEAKENED PER 21Z/00Z RUC. ATTENTION OVERNIGHT                 
TURNS TO THE NW AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 40KT...SPARKING MAINLY            
ELEVATED CONVECTION. 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF               
CIN FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM ROUGHLY AROUND 810MB WHERE CAPE IS                  
UPWARDS OF 3400J/KG WITH CIN AROUND 30J/KG. CONVECTION THAT HAS                 
RECENTLY FIRED JUST N OF KINL MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT SHOULD              
BECOME A MUCH LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH WILL TEND TO SETTLE SE             
PER 850-300MB THICKNESS FIELD. HOWEVER...CONTINUED WARMING OF THE               
COLUMN AND INCREASING THICKNESS MAY WORK TO KEEP STORM MOVEMENT MORE            
ERLY. WILL THUS MAINTAIN FLAVOR OF CURRENT FCST WHICH HAS HIGHEST               
POPS ACROSS NRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH POPS DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHC                  
CATEGORY ACROSS FAR SCNTRL UPPER MI (MAY BE A ROUGH NIGHT ACROSS                
ISLE ROYALE AND NORTHERN/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR). ALTHOUGH STRONGEST DEEP            
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE N OF THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...SHEAR OF 35-45 KT            
CERTAINLY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS OVER UPPER MI PER SPC                
OUTLOOK.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT                                        
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT NEXT              
FEW DAYS ARE MAIN CONCERNS.                                                     
WV LOOP SHOWS BROAD MID-LVL HOT RIDGE OVER NATIONS MID SECTION                  
FLANKED BY TROFS OVER ERN CANADA AND ANOTHER TROF DIGGING INTO THE              
PAC NW. STORMS FIRING OVER NRN MN AT NOSE OF 25-30KT 8H JET                     
AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE WRN HALF OF UPR             
MI TODAY WHILE CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SPILL ACROSS THE             
ENTIRE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S             
TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF CWA WITH EVEN UPR 60S OVER FAR WRN                    
LOCATIONS. THIS HAS PREVENTED INITATION OF CONVECTION OVER FCST AREA            
THUS FAR AND ALSO WEAKENED CONVECTION ADVECTING INTO THE WRN HALF OF            
UPR MI.                                                                         
TONIGHT...AS LOW LVL JET INCREASES TO 40-50 KT OVER THE NRN PLAINS              
SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER ND AND MN WITH POSSIBLE MCS/S              
TRACKING EWD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN                
AMOUNT OF DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE (35-40KT) AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY               
UPSTREAM...STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE STILL A                 
THREAT ESPECIALLY FOR NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA. THUS...THE ENTIRE              
FCST AREA IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE SPC DAY1 CONVECTIVE                 
OUTLOOK. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY LACK OF                
GOOD INSOLATION TODAY AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS             
NORTH OVER AREA LOOK FOR SHRA/TSRA TO DIMINISH OVER THE SRN FCST                
LATE TONIGHT.                                                                   
MONDAY...FOCUS SHIFTS TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OVER             
LAKE SUPERIOR. 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 25C OVER MUCH OF THE                 
AREA. MIXING THESE TEMPS TO SFC WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO            
AROUND 100F IN MANY INLAND AREAS OF THE WRN HALF OF UPR MI. THESE               
TEMPS COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SFC DWPNTS AROUND 70F WILL BRING HEAT              
INDICES INTO THE 100-110 F RANGE BY AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO EARLY             
EVENING. FOR THIS REASON HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE WRN HALF             
COUNTIES. ERN COUNTIES MAY PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER INLAND              
AREAS BUT FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS IN ONGOING SPSMQT.                 
WITH CONSIDERABLE CAP IN PLACE THERE SHOULD BE DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN             
TO OVERCOME (A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG) DESPITE OVER 3K J/KG SBCAPE. SO             
HAVE TAKEN OUT PCPN CHCS FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA. KEPT IN A CHC OF            
TSRA OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ALGER-LUCE NRN SCHOOLCRAFT                 
WHICH WILL BE MORE ON EDGE OF CAP AND CLOSER TO SFC BOUNDARY.                   
FOLLOWED SLOWER TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT FOR TUE PER 12Z UKMET                  
INSTEAD OF QUICKER GFS/ETA GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID-LVL RDG. FOLLOWING             
THIS SOLN HAVE PULLED PCPN CHCS OUT FOR ALL BUT THE WRN COUNTIES                
MON NIGHT. KEPT IN LOW CHC POPS FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA ON TUE BUT WITH            
SLOWER PASSAGE AND UKMET STILL SHOWING OF 20-22C 8H TEMPS...WOULD               
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 90S IN MANY AREAS. HOT TEMPS                    
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY COULD PUSH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN FOR              
MANY LOCATIONS.                                                                 
UKMET SHOWS COLD FRONT EXITING FCST AREA WED MORNING...ALTHOUGH                 
THERE LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHORTWAVE RIDING UP ALONG THIS               
BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN SOME ANAFRONT SHRA/TSRA WED             
MORNING DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD             
FINALLY COOL DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE             
70S.                                                                            
.EXTENDED...MID LVL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE AREA PER OPERATIONAL               
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFS EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOULD KEEP AREA            
DRY FOR THU INTO SAT. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL            
PASSAGE FOR SUN SO BROUGHT IN A CHC OF TSRA LATE SAT NIGHT IN THE               
WRN COUNTIES SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA ON SUN.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 HEAT ADVY FROM 9AM TO MIDNIGHT EDT MON FOR MIZ001>005-009>012-084.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
VOSS (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...SFC/RUC/SATELLITE/RADAR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING                
HIGH SFC AND H8 TD AIR NOW CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD THROUGH SRN                  
PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/LAKE MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...OVERTAKING             
DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS BELOW 650MB LEFT BEHIND BY THIS                         
MORNING/AFTERNOON MCS ACTIVITY. LLJ OF 30-40KTS IS DIRECTED INTO THE            
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND WESTERN ONTARIO...IN ENVIRONMENT DEFINED BY                 
H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM AND CONVERGENCE OF 20C H8 TD'S             
AND GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER.                   
CONVECTION HAS JUST BEGUN HERE AND THIS LOOKS TO BE THE START OF                
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING;S ROUND OF CONVECTION. WE ARE STILL              
STABLE IN NRN MICHIGAN BUT DO NOT FEEL THAT WILL LAST ALL NIGHT.                
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LLJ WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE DRIER MORE                  
STABLE AIR MASS TO BECOME MORE MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS AND CAPPING              
SEEN AT 650 MB TO ERODE AROUND 09Z. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY THIS TIME...OR JUST HAVE THE CONVECTION                
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN ONTARIO/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND                
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD. THIS               
MCS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN SOUTHWARD AND INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE             
TONIGHT/DAYBREAK...TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST H8-H5 THETA-E (OVER OUR              
AREA AT THIS TIME). THIS IS A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO WHAT OCCURRED OVER            
WISCONSIN LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.                                        
WILL LEAVE ONGOING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE                    
FORECAST AS THESE THINGS CAN BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE                
EXACT TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO               
SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS LIFTED TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN             
CWA...AND QUITE POSSIBLE ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS A               
POSSIBILITY WITH STRONG MCS OUTFLOW PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE             
HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE                
STRONGER CELLS. ONGOING FORECAST HAS THE IDEA...BUT TWEAKS MAY NEED             
TO BE MADE AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES OVERNIGHT.                                    
FLIRTED WITH THE IDEA OF ISSUING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW                 
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PLENTY OF DISCUSSION               
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE LED TO NOT DOING THIS JUST YET. THIS              
BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH A                
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WHICH MAY HAMPER HEAT INDICES GETTING TO                
100F. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS                     
CERTAINLY THERE AND A RATHER HOT AND UNCOMFORTABLE DAY CAN BE                   
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (WHEN ALL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD            
BE GONE). WILL LET MIDNIGHT CREW ASSESS THIS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION             
WILL BE MORE EVOLVED AND SLIGHTLY EASIER TO DISCERN THE CORRECT                 
PATH.   SMD                                                                     
&&                                                                              
DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE             
THUMB...WHILE LAST OF THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITED OUT OF              
NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...SUBSIDENCE HAS                    
RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ALLOWING              
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S A GENERATING MLCAPES             
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS.                 
HOWEVER...WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE                
WESTERN AND NRN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RUC/NAM FORECASTS                    
PRODUCING SOME CAP TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. LITTLE IF ANY CAP ACROSS            
NE LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM AND STILL SOME BUBBLY CU IN THIS AREA.                   
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY CONVECTION             
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BUT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN UP TO                
NEAR DULUTH. BIG SURGE OF WARMTH/MOISTURE ONGOING FROM THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS UP INTO MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE             
BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKBUILDING ALL DAY FROM THE ARROWHEAD OVER TO               
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DYING AS IT              
TRIES TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                  
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TWO FOLD...ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO               
LAST BIT OF HEATING...FOLLOWED BY MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.                       
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL                
WARM AND DRY AIR SLOWLY NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS OVER NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN DROPPING OFF OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RECENT ACARS FROM               
CIU/MKG/APPLETON WI REVEALING LOW LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENING AS A                  
RESULT OF THE WARM/DRIER AIR WHILE RIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE NEAR                   
APPLETON WI...STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT. STILL A WEAK CAP IN PLACE OVER            
NE LOWER MICHIGAN PER APN ACARS AND THUS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A             
SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LAKE               
BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. SO...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS                 
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE LOWER              
MI.                                                                             
OVERNIGHT...BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND UPSTREAM MCS               
EVOLUTION. NAM/GFS/RUC FORECASTS ALL DEPICT STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E             
AIR FROM MN UP INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT            
ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT              
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED NNE WITH TIME RUNNING               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THE LLJ VEERS                      
OVERNIGHT. BUT CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS GRADIENT SUGGESTS A SSE                
TURN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...                 
DROPPING AN MCS DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE INSTABILITY                
GRADIENT. STRONG LLJ JUST MAY KEEP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. BUT EVEN              
IF THAT OCCURS...STILL MAY SEE AT LEAST SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                 
ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH NRN            
MICHIGAN. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO              
LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH AT                 
LEAST A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW            
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT.                                                             
ADAM                                                                            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO                    
MICHIGAN...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF OUR WELL-ADVERTISED EARLY WEEK              
HEAT WAVE. SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN              
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING (CAP) AND               
DRYING THRU THE COLUMN WILL TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT                  
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...FOCUS AND TRACK OF UPSTREAM              
CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...CONFINING ANY                 
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDER AND PRECIP TO UPPER MICHIGAN FOR MOST             
OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH            
NORTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING FOR DRY WX ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG            
LOW LEVEL WAA AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO               
THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EVEN TO NEAR 100 IN DOWNSLOPE WIND              
AREAS IN NE LOWER MICHIGAN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL            
BE FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER                     
70S...PUSHING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES. THE ONLY                 
POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS IF WE                
MAINTAIN ENOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER VIA DYING UPSTREAM MCS DURING              
THE DAY TO HOLD SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT               
ISSUE THE ADVISORY JUST YET AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS BY THE               
EVENING AND/OR MID SHIFT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY              
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT                
INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN SAG THE FRONT THRU NRN            
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TIMING MAY BE             
A BIT RUSHED AS I THINK DAYTIME HEATING MAY SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION             
OF THE FRONT...AND EVOLUTION THAT IS NOT RARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.                
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALIGNED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG            
AND THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO             
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND LOWER 90S IN               
ERN UPR MICHIGAN. ARRIVAL OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF                  
SHRA/TSRA FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND BRING CHANCES OF PRECIP BACK INTO            
THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL TRY TO CRUDELY TIME                   
THIS...PUSHING CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING                   
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE INTO THE REST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER             
18Z. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA            
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL                 
TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN                    
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP SE OUT             
OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE            
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THRU...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE              
DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OUT OF              
CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR              
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND ONLY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN            
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THRU CANADA CLIPS THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
435 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE            
THUMB...WHILE LAST OF THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITED OUT OF              
NE LOWER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS...SUBSIDENCE HAS                    
RESULTED IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN ALLOWING              
TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S A GENERATING MLCAPES             
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS.                 
HOWEVER...WARMER AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TRYING TO NOSE INTO THE                
WESTERN AND NRN HALF OF THE CWA PER LATEST RUC/NAM FORECASTS                    
PRODUCING SOME CAP TO SFC BASED CONVECTION. LITTLE IF ANY CAP ACROSS            
NE LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM AND STILL SOME BUBBLY CU IN THIS AREA.                   
MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT MASKED BY CONVECTION             
ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN BUT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN UP TO                
NEAR DULUTH. BIG SURGE OF WARMTH/MOISTURE ONGOING FROM THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS UP INTO MN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE             
BEEN CONTINUOUSLY BACKBUILDING ALL DAY FROM THE ARROWHEAD OVER TO               
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DYING AS IT              
TRIES TO ADVECT SOUTHEASTWARD.                                                  
FORECAST ISSUES ARE TWO FOLD...ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING DUE TO               
LAST BIT OF HEATING...FOLLOWED BY MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.                       
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW LEVEL                
WARM AND DRY AIR SLOWLY NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS                
AFTERNOON EVIDENCED BY DEWPOINTS OVER NW LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN DROPPING OFF OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. RECENT ACARS FROM               
CIU/MKG/APPLETON WI REVEALING LOW LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENING AS A                  
RESULT OF THE WARM/DRIER AIR WHILE RIGHT ACROSS THE LAKE NEAR                   
APPLETON WI...STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT. STILL A WEAK CAP IN PLACE OVER            
NE LOWER MICHIGAN PER APN ACARS AND THUS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A             
SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME LAKE               
BREEZE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED. SO...WILL HAVE A DRY FORECAST THIS                 
EVENING FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NE LOWER              
MI.                                                                             
OVERNIGHT...BIGGER FORECAST QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND UPSTREAM MCS               
EVOLUTION. NAM/GFS/RUC FORECASTS ALL DEPICT STRONG SURGE OF THETA-E             
AIR FROM MN UP INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER TONIGHT            
ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS SUGGESTS THAT              
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GET SHOVED NNE WITH TIME RUNNING               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS THE LLJ VEERS                      
OVERNIGHT. BUT CORFIDI VECTORS/THICKNESS GRADIENT SUGGESTS A SSE                
TURN DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN IS A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...                 
DROPPING AN MCS DOWN ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG THE INSTABILITY                
GRADIENT. STRONG LLJ JUST MAY KEEP ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. BUT EVEN              
IF THAT OCCURS...STILL MAY SEE AT LEAST SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                 
ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE THETA-E GRADIENT AS IS PUSHES THROUGH NRN            
MICHIGAN. WITH THESE CONSIDERATIONS IN MIND HAVE NUDGED POPS UP TO              
LIKELY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...WITH AT                 
LEAST A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW            
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT.                                                             
ADAM                                                                            
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...500 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO                    
MICHIGAN...MARKING THE BEGINNING OF OUR WELL-ADVERTISED EARLY WEEK              
HEAT WAVE. SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN              
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOW/MID LEVEL WARMING (CAP) AND               
DRYING THRU THE COLUMN WILL TAKE PLACE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT                  
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...FOCUS AND TRACK OF UPSTREAM              
CONVECTION SHIFTS NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT...CONFINING ANY                 
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDER AND PRECIP TO UPPER MICHIGAN FOR MOST             
OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT MAY ACTUALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH            
NORTHWARD BY MONDAY EVENING FOR DRY WX ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG            
LOW LEVEL WAA AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO               
THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...EVEN TO NEAR 100 IN DOWNSLOPE WIND              
AREAS IN NE LOWER MICHIGAN IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL            
BE FAIRLY HUMID AS WELL WITH SFC DWPTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER                     
70S...PUSHING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES. THE ONLY                 
POTENTIAL LIMITATION TO REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS IF WE                
MAINTAIN ENOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER VIA DYING UPSTREAM MCS DURING              
THE DAY TO HOLD SOLAR HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT               
ISSUE THE ADVISORY JUST YET AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS BY THE               
EVENING AND/OR MID SHIFT AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY              
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S LATE MONDAY NIGHT.                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BRING THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT                
INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN SAG THE FRONT THRU NRN            
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS TIMING MAY BE             
A BIT RUSHED AS I THINK DAYTIME HEATING MAY SLOW THE SE PROGRESSION             
OF THE FRONT...AND EVOLUTION THAT IS NOT RARE THIS TIME OF YEAR.                
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS ALIGNED IN A NARROW BAND ALONG            
AND THE FRONT. THUS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH BACK INTO             
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND LOWER 90S IN               
ERN UPR MICHIGAN. ARRIVAL OF FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF                  
SHRA/TSRA FOR ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND BRING CHANCES OF PRECIP BACK INTO            
THE FORECAST FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. WILL TRY TO CRUDELY TIME                   
THIS...PUSHING CHANCE POPS INTO FAR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING                   
TUESDAY MORNING...AND THE INTO THE REST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER             
18Z. CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA            
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF             
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.                 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSTREAM DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL                 
TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN                    
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY DROP SE OUT             
OF MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE            
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THRU...AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH                
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE              
DEPARTURE OF THE FRONT AND AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OUT OF              
CANADA INTO THE NRN LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH              
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS IN THE              
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. OUR              
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND ONLY FOR UPPER MICHIGAN            
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVING THRU CANADA CLIPS THE AREA.                              
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1221 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...STRONG MCS CONTINUES TO ROLL DOWN INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN              
LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER MISSING NRN               
MICHIGAN ALTOGETHER. KAPX RADAR SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW              
OR AT LEAST SOME SORT OF CONNECTION WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE OFF TO             
THE SOUTH...RUNNING UP THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM...WITH               
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE             
AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. A FEW OF THESE STORMS GOT INTERESTING                   
EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS THEY CROSSED NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...PROMPTING            
A FEW WARNINGS. STORMS WERE LIKELY FED WITH WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL              
FLOW PUNCHING MORE UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS NRN WI INTO THE BACK END OF              
THE STORMS.                                                                     
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...LAPS ANALYSIS COMPUTING 500-1500 J/KG OF            
SFC BASED CAPE...BUT CAPPED TO SFC BASED CONVECTION WITH UPWARDS OF             
150 J/KG OF CINH AS SFC TEMPS STILL STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE                
70S. HOWEVER...MORNING GRB/APX SOUNDINGS REVEALING DECENT                       
INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG WHEN LIFTED FROM 850 MB. SO             
STORMS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN STILL ELEVATED AT THIS POINT.                        
FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE INSTABILITY ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO               
SEE THIN BAND OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG THE                  
OUTFLOW AS IT PRESSES EASTWARD. THEN...BEHIND THE DEPARTING                     
MCS...EXPECT TO GET SOME THINNING/CLEARING N-S ACROSS THE CWA DURING            
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT SFC TEMPS               
CAN REBOUND ENOUGH TO ERODE AWAY THE SFC BASED CAPPING AND GET                  
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT NOT             
ENTIRELY CERTAIN JUST HOW THIS WILL PAN OUT SO WILL LEAVE THE CHANCE            
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS GOING FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.                             
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                         
DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW              
A MONSTER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE                
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST US.  A WARM FRONT                   
EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING LIES ACROSS SD/MN/WI AND               
TURNS QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL MI/SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  ELEVATED            
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
MN/WI IN A REGION OF 850MB THETAE ADVECTION FROM A WEAK 20KT LLJ.               
925-850MB MUCAPE RANGES FROM ABOUT 800 J/KG OVER NORTHERN LOWER                 
MI/WI...TO WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MINNESOTA WITH THUNDERSTORM                 
MOVEMENT TO THE SE.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT FORMED INTO A FULL                  
FLEDGED MCS AS OF YET...AND ITS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS WILL                  
HAPPEN GIVEN THE WEAK LLJ.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS HOVER AROUND                 
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE               
UPSTREAM CONVECTION COULD MAKE IT INTO THE CWA...THEN TURN TO POPS              
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.           
TODAY...NORTHERN WI THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING WITH TIME AS THEY               
MOVE SOUTHEAST DUE TO WEAKENING INFLOW (AND INSTABILITY) FROM THE               
LLJ.  WITH THIS MOTION...HAVE A HARD TIME BELIEVING UPSTREAM                    
CONVECTION HAS MUCH OF A CHANCE OF MAKING IT INTO THE CWA WITHOUT               
MUCH IN THE WAY OF WAA OVER WESTERN WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI UNTIL AFTER             
SUNRISE...WHEN THE LLJ VEERS AND THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT GETS A               
LITTLE CLOSER. DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS/ISOLD -TSRA          
OUT OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW CWA...WITH THE                  
MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO JUST BEING MIDLEVEL CLOUD REMNANTS THAT WILL             
SLOW HEATING SOMEWHAT.  THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL LOWER              
RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK AS WELL AS THE ISENTROPIC            
LIFT OVER THE FRONT.  FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP              
TODAY WILL BE ALONG LAKE BREEZES WITH ONLY 5-10KT 950 WINDS OVER THE            
ENTIRE CWA.  BEST CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH             
5KT SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW COLLIDING WITH THE LAKE BREEZE OFF OF               
LAKE SUPERIOR.  A PARCEL 84/67 YIELDS MLCAPE/CINH OF ABOUT 1000/-50             
J/KG...STILL QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...BUT CANNOT RULE            
IT OUT...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ENOUGH INLAND PENETRATION TO SEE THE            
LAKE BREEZES COLLIDE. ADDITIONALLY...ACROSS NE LOWER...A PARCEL OF              
88/69 YIELDS MLCAPE/CINH OF 1800/-1 J/KG (VERY LITTLE CINH OVER MOST            
OF NORTHERN LOWER) ALBEIT WITH A LITTLE WEAKER LOW LEVEL                        
CONVERGENCE.  DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW MUCH            
UPSTREAM CONVECTION WORKS OVER THE ATMOSPHERE.  WILL KEEP EASTERN               
UPPER A 30 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE CINH AND UP NORTHERN               
LOWER TO 40 POP WITH NO CINH...LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL                 
HEATING EFFECTS...BUT DAY CREW MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHERE            
BEST CONVERGENCE IS SETTING UP WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LAKE BREEZE                
INTERACTION.  IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION...0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE                
RANGE OF 27.5-35KTS SUPPORTS SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WITH HIGH              
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FREEZING LEVELS OVER 15KFT.                       
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MCS POTENTIAL TONIGHT/MAYBE             
EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES IN EARNEST...PUSHING             
WESTERLY BELT TO THE NORTH. NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A POP-UP STORM                
EVEN AFTER THAT...BUT MAIN ISSUE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY IS JUST HOW                 
HOT/HUMID WILL IT GET.                                                          
MODELS...NAM IS SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN PUMPING UP THE RIDGE                
INTO THE LAKES REGION MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS IS PERHAPS A CONSEQUENCE             
OF THE GFS BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN CANADA                  
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THUS THE GFS HAVING A SURFACE LOW IN                         
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ONTARIO INSTEAD OF HUDSON BAY. GFS SOLUTION LOOKS A            
LITTLE STRANGE GIVEN THE RIDGE AXIS POKING IN FROM THE SOUTH...                 
PREFER THE NAM.                                                                 
TONIGHT...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOMETHING NOCTURNAL TO TAKE A RUN AT US            
FROM THE WNW. IT DIDN/T HAPPEN LAST NIGHT (AS EXPECTED)...AND IS                
STRUGGLING TO HAPPEN THIS MORNING (LESS EXPECTED). COULD STILL BE               
LINGERING DIURNAL CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TO START THE                   
EVENING. FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING                   
NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES...AND AS THE SURFACE WARM               
FRONT WEST OF LAKES GETS MOVING NORTHWARD. MUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET            
TO WORK OFF OF TONIGHT...WITH 30-40KT 850MB WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN             
PLAINS POINTING AT SUPERIOR. NAM/GFS BOTH PLACE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT            
OVER NE MN/WESTERN SUPERIOR...MOVING EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURNING            
TO RIGHT A BIT AS MCS PROPAGATES AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS                 
CLEARLY FAVORS EASTERN UPPER MI AND PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER MI.             
MET/MAV BOTH SPIT OUT LIKELY POPS AT THE SAULT...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO            
GO THAT FAR AFTER HOW THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE GONE. THERE/S                
DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY THAT ANY MCS STAYS COMPLETELY NORTH OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL BOOST POPS A BIT TO SCT IN MUCH OF                
CHIPPEWA COUNTY. A DIRECT HIT BY AN RIGHT-TURNING MCS WOULD CLEARLY             
BRING A SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT...AS 500MB WINDS ARE NEAR 50KT.                  
FURTHER SOUTH...MODEL SOUNDINGS TAKE AN INTERESTING LOOK VERY                   
LATE...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AROUND A BIT AND INCREASES INTO               
NORTHERN LOWER. 900-700MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH              
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING AS WELL (PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES). WILL BRING             
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A T-STORM VERY LATE INTO MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER.             
MONDAY...THAT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM WILL CARRY OVER INTO VERY                
EARLY MONDAY IN PARTS OF NE LOWER MI. ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS             
THE ONLY THING THAT STANDS IN THE WAY OF A DANGEROUSLY HOT DAY. WARM            
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OR ONLY MAKE SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS THRU                  
SOUTHERN SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL/EASTER UPPER. KEEPING CHANCE POPS UP              
THAT WAY STILL LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR THE WHOLE DAY...FOR ANY DYING MCS            
IN THE AM AND REDEVELOPMENT IN THE PM. TO THE SOUTH...AFTER THE                 
BRIEF THETA-E SURGE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...SUB-700MB LAYER DRIES                
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE MORNING. WE HAVE INSTABILITY TO GET BY                  
+11-12C 700MB TEMPS...BUT +20C AT 800MB WILL BE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL            
OBSTACLE. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SW LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LARGELY                  
PRECLUDE ANY BOUNDARIES IN NORTHERN LOWER MI (UNLESS OUTFLOW FROM               
CONVECTION TONIGHT GETS THIS FAR SOUTH...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM                    
LIKELY). SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE DAY DRY IN NORTHERN LOWER.                
TEMPS...HOW MUCH MORNING CLOUDS MIGHT CUT INTO HEATING IS THE BIG               
QUESTION. THE NAM (WHICH HAS MORE MOISTURE) HAS TONED THINGS DOWN A             
BIT...MAINLY LOW TO MID 90S. THE GFS...SPITTING OUT 101F FOR TVC...             
DIFFERS. THOUGH IN GENERAL THE NAM IS PREFERRED...IN THIS CASE WILL             
COMPROMISE CLOSER TO THE GFS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IN NW                 
LOWER MI...WHERE ANY CLOUDS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ONLY INTERFERE WITH             
THE VERY EARLY STAGES OF THE HEATING CYCLE. THUS EARLIER FORECAST OF            
MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WILL NOT BE ADJUSTED                     
DRASTICALLY. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 71-73F RANGE SUPPORT HEAT                
INDICES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE                
NEEDED FOR MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI. EASTERN UPPER WILL BE                     
CONSIDERABLY COOLER (WELL...LESS WARM ANYWAYS) WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.              
MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TOWARD                  
HUDSON BAY...WITH A LONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MAKING SOME EASTWARD               
PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN SUPERIOR BEFORE LAYING OVER ACROSS THE UPPER            
MS VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTION FIRING NEAR THE FRONT UPSTREAM             
WILL REMAIN A THREAT TO EASTERN UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING            
WHILE E-W BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL DEFINED. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS NORTH            
OF THE BRIDGE...DRY SOUTH. A VERY WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY                   
LOWER/MID 70S. MAV GUIDANCE MIN OF 79 AT TVC APPEARS TOO WARM GIVEN             
LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.                            
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT AS FAR AS EASTERN UPPER BEFORE               
STALLING AS A SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.                 
PRECIP CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE FOCUSED NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH A                 
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR EASTERN UPPER AND PERHAPS THE STRAITS. WITH THE              
500MB RIDGE ENTRENCHED FOR ANOTHER DAY OVERHEAD...THE WARM SECTOR               
WILL REMAIN DRY AND SCORCHING. MID/UPPER 90S STILL WORKS FOR                    
NORTHERN LOWER...UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EASTERN UPPER...WITH DEW POINTS/             
HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO MONDAY.                                                 
NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS.                                                    
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1125 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW MOST OF CONVECTION IS FIRING ALL               
AROUND UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH ONLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS STARTING             
TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. AM CONCERNED THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER              
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO MAINLY MIDDLE 80S.            
ALSO WOULD EXPECT CAPE TO THEREFORE BE REDUCED AND 12Z NAM AND                  
LATEST RUC OUTPUT HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY...BUT STILL SHOW 2K TO 3K               
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...IF NOT A BIT MORE. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW            
SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING UPSTREAM...BUT WITH CONVECTION FIRING OVER              
THE MN ARROWHEAD WOULD EXPECT RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO LINGER THROUGH            
THE AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED            
STORMS ARE SEVERE BUT KDLH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SLIGHT                     
DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY MOVE OVER THE LAKE.                                   
THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE FOR SUPERCELLS BASED ON               
BRN SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY FIELDS...AND ALTHOUGH THE FREEZING             
LEVELS ARE HIGH ANY OF THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE            
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING IS ALSO             
A CONCERN AS RECENT RAINFALL HAS LEFT THE GROUND SOMEWHAT                       
MOIST...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS EXISTS BASED ON                    
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF             
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN TO CENTRAL LAKE MI.               
WILL HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS             
AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE REDUCED A BIT BASED ON            
THE EXISTING CLOUD COVER AND UPSTREAM TRENDS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1010 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MS HAS FINALLY            
LOST STEAM. ASSOCIATED STRATIFORM RAIN REGION IS LAGGING BACK FROM              
INITIAL GUST FRONT...AND CONTINUES TO WET GROUND JUST SOUTHEAST OF              
THE I-59 CORRIDOR. STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ARE VERY ISOLATED              
AND ARE NO LONGER DEEMED CAPABLE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER.                          
HAVE NOTICED A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP NORTH OF THE DYING CONVECTIVE             
COMPLEX IN MS. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WEAK MID            
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATES INTO MS IN A CLOCKWISE DIRECTION AROUND A             
RIDGE CENTERED IN THE PLAINS.                                                   
UPDATED THE POP FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND                      
EXPECTATIONS. ALSO TWEAKS CLOUD COVER, WIND AND TEMPS FIELDS...BUT              
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE.                                                          
NEW GRIDS AND ZONES OUT. /BB/                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MERGER OF TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF                
CLARKE COUNTY IN SE MS A LITTLE EARLIER. SUBSEQUENT COMBINATION OF              
CONVECTION IS RATHER VIGOROUS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DOWN              
THE I-59 CORRIDOR...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS OF             
LIGHTNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE FAR                    
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE HATTIESBURG AREA.                   
REST OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECT               
MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE OVER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR              
TWO. HOWEVER...RUC IMPLIES 850 MB CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING INTO THE            
BACKSIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS COULD SPAWN SOME HIGHER                
BASED...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS A WIDER AREA LATER ON                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED BEFORE 10               
PM. /BB/                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOTS OF WET GROUND ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI WHICH SPELLS POTENTIAL            
FOR MORNING LOW CLOUD AND FOG PRODUCTION THERE. HOWEVER...DYING                 
CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST MS HAS LEFT LOTS OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS             
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DISPERSE. COULD STILL SEE               
SOME MVFR TO TEMPO IFR VIS REDUCTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT                      
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM GTR...TO                 
MEI...TO HBG. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH                  
PATCHY MORNING MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.                                        
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.             
/BB/                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
819 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MERGER OF TWO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF                
CLARKE COUNTY IN SE MS A LITTLE EARLIER. SUBSEQUENT COMBINATION OF              
CONVECTION IS RATHER VIGOROUS AND PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DOWN              
THE I-59 CORRIDOR...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND PRODIGIOUS AMOUNTS OF             
LIGHTNING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE FAR                    
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...INCLUDING THE HATTIESBURG AREA.                   
REST OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA IS PRETTY MUCH NEGLIGIBLE. EXPECT               
MOST OF THE ACTION TO BE OVER IN SOUTHEAST ZONES WITHIN AN HOUR OR              
TWO. HOWEVER...RUC IMPLIES 850 MB CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING INTO THE            
BACKSIDE OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS COULD SPAWN SOME HIGHER                
BASED...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS A WIDER AREA LATER ON                    
TONIGHT.                                                                        
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED BEFORE 10               
PM. /BB/                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
WEAK DISTURBANCE/CONVECTIVE VORT DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ON THE               
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST INTO THE                
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS TRIGGERING LOTS OF CONVECTION RIGHT NOW             
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE              
MS REMAINS GENERALLY VERY ISOLATED WITH REMNANT SHOWERS DISSIPATING             
QUICKLY UP IN AROUND THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST               
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO PUSH SOUTH                 
ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF THE MS/AL STATELINE WHILE MOST OTHER ACTIVITY             
REMAINS ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT. ML CAPE VALUES PRECEDING                      
CONVECTION ARE UP ABOVE 2000 J/KG GENERALLY...SO WE WILL HAVE TO                
WATCH FOR SOME STRONG STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.                           
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO REFLECT THINKING IN TERMS OF PRECIP              
COVERAGE. THINK THAT MOST ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO WIND DOWN BY 8 OR 9             
PM...BUT THE PRESENCE OF MENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH              
TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE            
MS ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT.                                                     
NEW ZONES AND GRIDS COMING OUT WITH ANOTHER UPDATE ANTICIPATED LATER            
ON THIS EVENING. /BB/                                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1215 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NEAR IDENTICAL SCENARIO FROM YESTERDAY NOW FACING US WITH REGARDS               
TO PCPN CHANCES...ONLY WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                      
BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER E INTO THE ERN FA...AS NOTED WITH MOST                
OB SITES COMING IN WITH SW-WSW SFC WINDS AND KENL AND KSLO WITH                 
SLY WINDS. LITTLE/NO CINH AND MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS LINGERING                  
OVER THE ERN FA AND ADDITIONAL POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY FROM MCS                 
OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN REACHING THE ERN EXTREMITIES OF THE FA BY                
EARLY THIS EVENING ALL POINTS TO ENHANCED PCPN CHANCES IN SWRN IL               
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BUMP POPS UP IN THIS                
AREA TO CHANCE CATEGORY. TO A LESSER EXTENT...MAY SEE TSRA IN THE               
ERN OZARKS...AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING                
THERE. WITH MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISM E OF THE STL METRO AND OTHER                
AREAS...BELIEVE WE WILL AVOID PCPN TODAY. 4K-5K CAPES...AND WEAK                
SHEAR REGIME...WILL ALLOW ANY TSRA THAT DO FORM TO QUICKLY DEVELOP              
INTO PULSE SEVERE...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF               
EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL ORGANIZED SYSTEM.                                        
REGARDING TEMPS...KCOU/KJEF ALREADY 2F AHEAD OF THEIR PROLIFIC                  
PACE YESTERDAY...AND WITH EVEN WARMER H850 TEMPS...ABOUT 2C HIGHER              
THAN YESTERDAY MOST PLACES...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING FROM                 
THE W...SHOULD SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 100F+ MAX TEMPS THIS                       
AFTERNOON. HAVE MODIFIED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.                                     
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE CWA ATTM.                  
LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWS STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG ON THE SWRN EDGE OF             
THIS SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  THESE STORMS ARE ALSO AHD OF A WK               
VORT MAX OR MCV.  MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SE            
OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.  WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG WHICH IS ALREADY            
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WHICH WILL BGN THIS AFTN FOR                
THE ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA. A TYPICAL HOT SUMMERTIME WX                    
PATTERN WILL BE OVR THE REGION WITH A MID LVL RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG               
FM ERN TX N-NE THRU MO WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LVL S-SWLY FLOW WILL CONT WITH SFC/850 MB RDG               
JUST SE OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS APR A TAD LOW. WITH                  
LESS CLOUD CVR TDA PLAN TO FCST A DGR OR TWO ABV PERSISTANCE THIS               
AFTN. SHOULD ONLY BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPG LT THIS MRNG OR              
EARLY THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APR TO BE ANY FRCG FOR                 
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...NAM MDL DOES DEPICT SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY OVR THE ERN AND SRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. MAY               
INCLUDE A VRY LOW POP TDA MAINLY E AND S OF THE STL METRO AREA.                 
THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CAPPING OVR THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA TDA.                 
BASED ON 700 MB TEMP FCST IT APRS THAT THE CAPPING OVR THE CWA                  
WILL BE STGR ON MON WITH PROBABLY ONLY FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.              
WILL CONT WITH FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 90S FOR MON AND TUE              
ACRS THE CWA. MDLS CONT TO FCST 850 MB TEMPS ARND 22-24 DGRS C                  
ACRS THE CWA.                                                                   
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WILL                  
PREVAIL THRU THE VALID TAF PERIOD. BELIEVE ANY TSRA THAT DO FORM                
WILL REMAIN E AND S OF KSTL/KSUS TERMINALS DUE TO LOCATION OF                   
BOUNDARY BEING OVER SWRN IL ATTM. WLY SFC WINDS AOB 10KTS FOR THE               
TAF SITES TODAY EXPECTED TO BACK SSW OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN...ONLY                
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO SWLY AROUND 10KTS ON MONDAY.                             
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD-              
     IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-                         
     WASHINGTON.                                                                
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN-               
     BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-                  
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN.                                          
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-              
     MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                           
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ST. CHARLES-           
     ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY.                                                  
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR BOND IL-               
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-                     
     MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON IL.                                   
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-            
     JERSEY IL-MONROE IL.                                                       
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN           
     IL-PIKE IL.                                                                
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MADISON IL-            
     ST. CLAIR IL.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
655 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY ON THE SERN EDGE OF THE CWA ATTM.                  
LATEST RUC ANLYS SHOWS STG 850 MB MOISTURE CNVG ON THE SWRN EDGE OF             
THIS SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  THESE STORMS ARE ALSO AHD OF A WK               
VORT MAX OR MCV.  MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY SE            
OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUN.  WILL CONT EXCESSIVE HT WRNG WHICH IS ALREADY            
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AND WHICH WILL BGN THIS AFTN FOR                
THE ERN AND SRN PTNS OF THE CWA. A TYPICAL HOT SUMMERTIME WX                    
PATTERN WILL BE OVR THE REGION WITH A MID LVL RDG CURRENTLY EXTDG               
FM ERN TX N-NE THRU MO WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE NEXT              
COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW LVL S-SWLY FLOW WILL CONT WITH SFC/850 MB RDG               
JUST SE OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS APR A TAD LOW. WITH                  
LESS CLOUD CVR TDA PLAN TO FCST A DGR OR TWO ABV PERSISTANCE THIS               
AFTN. SHOULD ONLY BE FEW-SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DVLPG LT THIS MRNG OR              
EARLY THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT APR TO BE ANY FRCG FOR                 
CONVECTION THIS AFTN...NAM MDL DOES DEPICT SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE                
AND INSTABILITY OVR THE ERN AND SRN PTN OF THE CWA THIS AFTN. MAY               
INCLUDE A VRY LOW POP TDA MAINLY E AND S OF THE STL METRO AREA.                 
THERE SHOULD BE BETTER CAPPING OVR THE NWRN PTN OF THE CWA TDA.                 
BASED ON 700 MB TEMP FCST IT APRS THAT THE CAPPING OVR THE CWA                  
WILL BE STGR ON MON WITH PROBABLY ONLY FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS.              
WILL CONT WITH FCST HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 90S FOR MON AND TUE              
ACRS THE CWA. MDLS CONT TO FCST 850 MB TEMPS ARND 22-24 DGRS C                  
ACRS THE CWA.                                                                   
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD                 
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO                     
EVENING AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. LOOKS LIKE THE              
MOST UNSTABLE AREAS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM              
OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS PT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT.               
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT                
     WEDNESDAY FOR CRAWFORD-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-ST. FRANCOIS-                 
     STE. GENEVIEVE-WASHINGTON.                                                 
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR AUDRAIN-               
     BOONE-CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-                  
     MONITEAU-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-WARREN.                                          
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KNOX-LEWIS-              
     MARION-MONROE-PIKE-RALLS-SHELBY.                                           
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ST. CHARLES-           
     ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY.                                                  
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT                
     WEDNESDAY FOR BOND IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-                     
     MACOUPIN IL-MARION IL-MONTGOMERY IL-RANDOLPH IL-WASHINGTON                 
     IL.                                                                        
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CALHOUN IL-            
     JERSEY IL-MONROE IL.                                                       
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN           
     IL-PIKE IL.                                                                
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MADISON IL-            
     ST. CLAIR IL.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
905 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE              
TRENDS.  WESTERN AREAS CERTAINLY LOOK MOST FAVORED ATTM...WITH                  
CONVECTION POSSIBLY BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE REAR              
OF 30KT 250 MB JET MAX...AS PER RUC ANALYSIS. STILL SOME HOPE FOR               
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS DECENT SRLY FLOW UP VALLEY INTERACTS WITH              
CURRENT CONVECTION SOUTH OF JEMEZ...BUT DID LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY.                
MADE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE EAST WHERE IT DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH WILL             
BE GOING ON OVERNIGHT.  BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER FAR SE                  
NM...OUTSIDE CWFA...KD                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                   
UPR LVL LOW NOW CENTERED EXACTLY OVER THE CENTER OF THE                         
STATE...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS            
IN ALMOST ALL QUADRANTS OF THE STATE EXCEPT RIGHT IN THE CENTER. NOT            
MUCH MORE TO SAY TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. UPR LOW CONTINUES TO              
BE STUBBORN ABOUT MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. MODELS FINALLY MOVE IN OUT            
PERHAPS TONIGHT...BUT IT IS REPLACED WITH ANOTHER TROF/UPR LVL LOW              
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. MOSTLY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE                     
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BEFORE A SMALL             
DRYING TREND MOVES INTO THE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK...16                          
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
755 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
RUC SNDG STILL SHOWS A CHC AT ELM OF BREAKING THE CAP TODAY SO LEFT             
A SLGT CHC (ISOLD) TSTM OVR WRN ZONES INTO THIS EVENING. SFC FRONT              
HAS BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO NERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS                
EVENING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT UNDER HI PRES TNGT. HAVE               
LOWERED MIN TEMPS WITH THIS TREND ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE SRN TIER            
AND WRN CATSKILLS. MAY GET SOME HI CLOUDS TONIGHT OVR WRN ZONES FROM            
CONVECTION MOVING DOWN FROM MICHIGAN INTO OHIO. ALSO SOME OF THE                
BUFKIT SNDGS ARE SHOWING SOME SATURATION ARND 3K AND LOOKING                    
UPSTREAM INTO ONTARIO ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WOULD COME              
IN OVER NIGHT INTO OUR NRN AND WRN ZONES. -BMW                                  
FNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK EWD AS A WMFNT ON MON, FOLLOWED              
BY HOT TEMPS AND HIGH TD'S. HEAT INDICES FOR TUES MAX OUT IN THE                
105-110F RANGE (WARNING CRITERIA). TUES NGT LOOKS MISERABLE WITH                
LOWS ONLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE M70S MOST AREAS. MAXES ON WED COULD             
BE A FEW DEG COOLER BUT WE STILL GET HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F.                  
GIVEN THIS, WE HOISTED AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH STARTING LATE TUES               
MRNG THRU WED AFTN. TUFF TO TIME ANY S/WV'S WHICH COULD ENHANCE                 
CONVECTIVE POTNL, BUT BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE OVER NRN/CNTRL ZONES               
LATER MON AFTN AND MON EVNG AS POTNL MCS DIVES SEWD WITH A 500 MB               
S/WV AND THE FNTL BNDRY IN VCNTY. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE AN MCS                  
ANYWHERE IN THE BGM FCST AREA, AT ANY TIME, GIVEN THIS PTRN. FOR                
NOW, GIVEN MDL INDICATIONS OF VERY LTL FORCING TUES, WE PLAYED SLGT             
CHC POPS. POTNLY A LTL MORE INTERESTING ON WED, BUT FOR NOW WENT                
WITH SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DEVIATED VERY LTL FROM HPC GUIDANCE. RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND STORMY            
WEATHER WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A (POTNLY ACTIVE) CDFNTL PSSG LATER            
IN THE WEEK. SOME DIFFS IN THE DETAILS AS TO HOW FAST THE FNT CLEARS            
SE ZONES. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE FNT...WITH NXT                  
WEEKEND LOOKING VERY NICE AT THIS POINT.                                        
.AVIATION (31/00Z TO 01/00Z)..                                                  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THROUGH LATE                   
TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED MID CLOUDS WITH BKN/OVC CIRRUS. AFTER 08Z              
THROUGH MID MORNING, DEBRIS FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER            
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA. ATTM NO PRECIP EXPECTED BUT            
SCT CLOUDS AT 4K FT AND CIGS AROUND 12K FT LIKELY. FOR KELM/KAVP,               
MVFR FOG POSSIBLE BTW 09Z-12Z. BY LATE MORNING SKIES WILL IMPROVE TO            
SCATTERED CUMULUS FOLLOWED BY LATE PERIOD BKN CU AND CB MENTIONED               
FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION.   RRM                                                 
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUES AND WED ALL ZONES.                              
.PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TUES AND WED ALL ZONES.                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
935 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.                
TR.92                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY                    
CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF POSSIBE MORNING STRATUS.                  
BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL EXIST AT KACT...WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH              
BKN020 FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. STRATUS AT DFW TRACON TAF SITES            
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES EXIST EAST OF THIS               
AREA. WILL INSERT SCT025 AT KDFW AND KDAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BASED ON              
RUC RH FORECASTS.   07/BB                                                       
&&                                                                              
.350 PM CDT DISCUSSION...                                                       
THE ETA MODEL CONTINUOUS TO SHOW A SUBTLE COOLING OF THE LOWER                  
ATMOSPHERE...IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB HEIGHT...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS. I HAVE SEEN THIS IN THE PAST...AND TYPICALLY THE ETA IS                   
RIGHT. THE RESULT USUALLY IS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING                        
OCCURS...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS.                                               
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH AND LOW                              
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS. THAT GUIDANCE               
HAS BEEN TOO COOL LATELY...ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS.                      
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...WE                
ARE STILL A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS.                                            
WE LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE YESTERDAY. THIS WAS IN SPITE OF THE               
MODELS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH KEPT THE WEAK COOL FRONT NORTH OF                
THE RED RIVER AT THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...AFTER BRINGING IT                 
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER 48 HOURS AGO. TODAY'S MODELS AGAIN SHOW THE              
FRONT COMING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO OUR NORTHERN                   
ZONES LATE THIS WEEK.                                                           
WE HAVE LOW POPS...FIRST NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THURSDAY AND                   
EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER                     
SOUTH...WE WILL HAVE A CONCURRENT WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EVER              
SO SLOWLY FROM WEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME...AND POSSIBLY SOME                  
AFTERNOON "SEA BREEZE" THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND               
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. (THIS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE WEAK LOW                   
LEVEL COOLING BY THE ETA...WHICH USUALLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT                
OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.)                                          
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...WE HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA         
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  78  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
WACO, TX              77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             74  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            77  98  78  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77  95 /   0   0   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            80  98  79  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         77  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/26                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY                    
CHALLENGE IS THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF POSSIBE MORNING STRATUS.                  
BELIEVE BEST CHANCES WILL EXIST AT KACT...WHERE WILL CONTINUE WITH              
BKN020 FORECAST BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. STRATUS AT DFW TRACON TAF SITES            
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT BELIEVE BEST CHANCES EXIST EAST OF THIS               
AREA. WILL INSERT SCT025 AT KDFW AND KDAL BETWEEN 12Z-15Z BASED ON              
RUC RH FORECASTS.   07/BB                                                       
&&                                                                              
.350 PM CDT DISCUSSION...                                                       
THE ETA MODEL CONTINUOUS TO SHOW A SUBTLE COOLING OF THE LOWER                  
ATMOSPHERE...IN THE 1000 TO 850 MB HEIGHT...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS. I HAVE SEEN THIS IN THE PAST...AND TYPICALLY THE ETA IS                   
RIGHT. THE RESULT USUALLY IS THAT SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING                        
OCCURS...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS.                                               
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE HAVE LOWERED THE HIGH AND LOW                              
TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THE GFS MOS. THAT GUIDANCE               
HAS BEEN TOO COOL LATELY...ESPECIALLY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS.                      
ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURE THROUGH ABOUT MID WEEK...WE                
ARE STILL A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS.                                            
WE LEFT THE LOW POPS IN PLACE YESTERDAY. THIS WAS IN SPITE OF THE               
MODELS OF 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH KEPT THE WEAK COOL FRONT NORTH OF                
THE RED RIVER AT THE END OF THE COMING WEEK...AFTER BRINGING IT                 
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER 48 HOURS AGO. TODAY'S MODELS AGAIN SHOW THE              
FRONT COMING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY INTO OUR NORTHERN                   
ZONES LATE THIS WEEK.                                                           
WE HAVE LOW POPS...FIRST NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THURSDAY AND                   
EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH FURTHER                     
SOUTH...WE WILL HAVE A CONCURRENT WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EVER              
SO SLOWLY FROM WEST TEXAS AT THE SAME TIME...AND POSSIBLY SOME                  
AFTERNOON "SEA BREEZE" THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND               
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. (THIS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE WEAK LOW                   
LEVEL COOLING BY THE ETA...WHICH USUALLY IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BIT                
OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.)                                          
BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...WE HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA         
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  78  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
WACO, TX              77  97  77  96 /  10  10  10  10                          
PARIS, TX             74  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            77  98  78  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          76  98  77  95 /   0   0   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            80  98  79  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           77  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         77  96  76  95 /  10  10  10  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            75  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
/26                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
1003 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPED THE POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE 12Z                
SOUNDINGS SHOWED LESS CAP THAN YESTERDAY -- COOLER TEMPERATURES                 
WERE EVIDENT AT 700 MB ON THE CRP AND LCH SOUNDINGS AND THE NAM                 
BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE MID LEVEL WAVE/CIRCULATION OVER THE                
GULF WAS TREKKING WESTWARD BUT SHOULD NOT REALLY AFFECT THE SE TX               
LAND AREAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...AND IF THE MODEL                
DATA IS ON TRACK...MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM WAS FAIRLY DRY FOR              
TODAY WHILE THE RUC AND THE GFS WERE CRANKING OUT PLENTY OF QPF                 
OUTPUT. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE               
IN PLACE...ALL THAT IS NEEDED IS A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY.                          
THE RADAR DATA SHOWED AN OUTFLOW PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE               
COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD THE GULF AT 13Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD                    
HELP SUPPRESS ACTIVITY FOR A BIT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE                    
SEABREEZE WAS ALREADY GETTING ACTIVE OVER JACKSON AND MATAGORDA                 
COUNTIES AT 1430Z AND EXPECT IT TO START BY MIDDAY OVER THE                     
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH               
TO GET THINGS GOING FURTHER INLAND...AND COUPLING THE SEABREEZE                 
WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...THESE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE                 
BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL SET OF COUNTIES. WENT WITH                     
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MARINE ZONES AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES...                 
SCATTERD POPS OVER THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR OF COUNTIES...AND                 
UPPER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES POP VALUES FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT.               
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A LITTLE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. HAVE            
SEEN MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATER AND EARLY DEVELOPING CU            
OVER LAND. EXPECT SOMEWHAT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS AS SEA BREEZE GETS UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON. MIGHT                 
WARRANT SOME VCTS TO START WITH HOU-IAH AND SCT CB ELSEWHERE. ST                
CLL AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY 18Z. THE USUAL DISSIPATION BY                    
SUNSET IS ANTICIPATED. 30                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SMOOTH BAYS AND MINIMAL SEAS OFFSHORE                
THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE MENTIONING OF POSSIBLE                        
WATERSPOUTS IN THE THE SYNOPSIS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW IDEAL SETUP FOR               
SAME. 30                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
130 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH A FEW               
AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE. A DIP IN VISBYS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH                  
HAZE/LIGHT FOG IN MANY AREAS...AND THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR                 
DENSE FOG ACRS RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. PRECIP POTENTIAL APPEARS TO              
BE FAIRLY LOW THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE ISOLD STORMS                 
FIRE LATE THIS AFTN WITH APPROACHING WEAK WAVE...WITH ADDITIONAL                
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACRS THE WEST DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF                  
REMNANTS OF MCS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. HOT DAY TOMORROW AS UPR                   
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVR THE REGION...WITH LIGHT WIND                       
SCATTERED CU DURING THE AFTN...ALONG WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE                
FOR AN ISOLD STORM ACRS THE RIDGES.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MORNING              
ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS WAVE OFF THE NC COAST...WITH              
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH PA INTO NORTHERN WV.                 
THIS FEATURE IN COMBO WITH MID-LEVEL ISTABILITY HELPING KICK OFF A              
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACRS WEST VIRGINIA...JUST WEST OF THE CWA              
THUS FAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST WV              
SHOULD A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK DOWN THAT WAY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER                
POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL SMALL) WILL BE THIS AFTN. CLDS CONTINUE               
TO HANG TOUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN LIGHT UPSLOPE REGIME...HOWEVER           
LATE JULY SUN DOING ITS WORK AND CLDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX                    
OUT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REPLACED IN MANY AREAS BY SCATTERED/POSSIBLY              
BROKEN CU THIS AFTN.                                                            
12Z RNK/GSO RAOBS SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PER                   
PASSAGE OF WAVE YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE A MITIGATING                 
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM                
RAOBS CLOSER TO PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE SHOW ENOUGH COOLING TO                      
OVERCOME CAP AND THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW                   
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN VA SHOULD AID IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE                         
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN ACRS THE NRN CWA. THIS IDEA IS                       
SUPPORTED BY INCOMING WRF/RUC GUIDANCE. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLD              
STORMS FIRE IN WARM/FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY                      
CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AND THESE WILL BE FIGHTING NORTHWESTERLY                 
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.                                                            
GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH THICKNESS PARAMETERS                 
FROM 12Z RAOBS SUPPORT NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACRS THE                  
PIEDMONT WHERE HAVE RAISED A TAD GIVEN LIKELY DOWNSLOPE COMING                  
INTO PLAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS FOR AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA              
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKNESS ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE                 
APPROACHING THE AREA IN COMBO WITH OLD OUTFLOW FROM MASSIVE MCS                 
PASSING THRU WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK UPON FULL              
ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE.                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 641 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG               
IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR                 
CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST THINK VSBYS AND CIGS WILL                
REMAIN VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL BE                  
WIDELY SCTD.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 207 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
GOING INTO A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A                
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
COUNTRY. YDAYS SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NC AND MOVING AWAY.                    
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ARND THE ADVANCING RIDGE INTO PA                
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER                
SOME WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND                    
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER TODAY UPR RIDGE WILL STRENGHTHEN OVERHEAD AND SHUD CAP                    
CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE                         
WEST...THRU WED. UPR RIDGE WILL BRING WITH IT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH              
MOST PLACES PUSHING INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTN. HEAT INDEX VALUES                 
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS (105) IN THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAWRENCE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1020 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. MORNING              
ANALYSIS SHOWS REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS WAVE OFF THE NC COAST...WITH              
SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH PA INTO NORTHERN WV.                 
THIS FEATURE IN COMBO WITH MID-LEVEL ISTABILITY HELPING KICK OFF A              
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACRS WEST VIRGINIA...JUST WEST OF THE CWA              
THUS FAR. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED SMALL POPS FOR SOUTHEAST WV              
SHOULD A FEW SHOWERS SNEAK DOWN THAT WAY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER                
POTENTIAL (ALTHOUGH STILL SMALL) WILL BE THIS AFTN. CLDS CONTINUE               
TO HANG TOUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS IN LIGHT UPSLOPE REGIME...HOWEVER           
LATE JULY SUN DOING ITS WORK AND CLDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX                    
OUT...ALTHOUGH LIKELY REPLACED IN MANY AREAS BY SCATTERED/POSSIBLY              
BROKEN CU THIS AFTN.                                                            
12Z RNK/GSO RAOBS SHOW DECENT MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION PER                   
PASSAGE OF WAVE YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT THIS MAY BE A MITIGATING                 
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...UPSTREAM                
RAOBS CLOSER TO PASSAGE OF UPR WAVE SHOW ENOUGH COOLING TO                      
OVERCOME CAP AND THIS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW                   
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN VA SHOULD AID IN ISOLD CONVECTIVE                         
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN ACRS THE NRN CWA. THIS IDEA IS                       
SUPPORTED BY INCOMING WRF/RUC GUIDANCE. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL ISOLD              
STORMS FIRE IN WARM/FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH LIKELY                      
CONFINED TO THE RIDGES AND THESE WILL BE FIGHTING NORTHWESTERLY                 
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.                                                            
GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH THICKNESS PARAMETERS                 
FROM 12Z RAOBS SUPPORT NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACRS THE                  
PIEDMONT WHERE HAVE RAISED A TAD GIVEN LIKELY DOWNSLOPE COMING                  
INTO PLAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS FOR AFFECT A PORTION OF THE AREA              
OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKNESS ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE                 
APPROACHING THE AREA IN COMBO WITH OLD OUTFLOW FROM MASSIVE MCS                 
PASSING THRU WISCONSIN/MICHIGAN. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK UPON FULL              
ARRIVAL OF 12Z GUIDANCE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 641 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TODAY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG               
IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THRU THE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR                 
CONDS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. IN THE EAST THINK VSBYS AND CIGS WILL                
REMAIN VFR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTN/EVE CONVECTION WILL BE                  
WIDELY SCTD.                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 207 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
GOING INTO A RATHER TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A                
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE               
COUNTRY. YDAYS SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN NC AND MOVING AWAY.                    
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN ARND THE ADVANCING RIDGE INTO PA                
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH TODAY AND WILL TRIGGER                
SOME WIDELY SCTD CONVECTION OVER THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND                    
EVENING.                                                                        
AFTER TODAY UPR RIDGE WILL STRENGHTHEN OVERHEAD AND SHUD CAP                    
CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY...MAINLY IN THE                         
WEST...THRU WED. UPR RIDGE WILL BRING WITH IT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH              
MOST PLACES PUSHING INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTN. HEAT INDEX VALUES                 
MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS (105) IN THE PIEDMONT BY TUESDAY.                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAWRENCE                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
751 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SEVERE MCS OBVIOUSLY MAKING MORE HEADWAY INTO CAP THAT EARLIER                  
THOUGHT. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES TO REFLECT CERTAINTY OF RAIN              
THIS MORNING IN NORTHEAST 1/3 CWA.                                              
CRAVEN/02                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
MAIN THEME WILL BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY                   
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT NOT DUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF                 
THE WEEK.                                                                       
IN SHORT TERM...SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN RIDING ALONG THE               
EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT 700 MB CAP. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM/RUC ALL HINT ON               
ISOLATED STORMS EITHER FROM REMNANTS OF MCS CLIPPING MAINLY                     
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA OR FROM ACCAS BOMBS ON TOP OF CAP. THERE WAS              
A COUPLE OF ATTEMPTS AT THIS EARLIER IN WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS               
SOME 50 DBZ ECHOES DID DEVELOP BRIEFLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF                
HOURS. SINCE WARMEST 700 MB TEMPS ARE WEST WENT AHEAD AND LEFT OUT              
PRECIP FAR WEST AND JUST ISOLATED CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY.                       
ALTHOUGH RADAR LOOKS PRETTY SCARY AS STORMS SURGE SOUTH                         
CURRENTLY...DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW MCS CAN TURN TO FAR SOUTH WITHOUT              
SUFFERING THE FATE OF THE DEATH CAP WITH +14C OR WARMER AT 700 MB.              
THUS...EXPECT IT TO RIDE THE ISOTHERMS EAST SOUTHEAST AND STAY                  
JUST NORTH OF CWA. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH.                                 
WITH SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TODAY WITH WEAK              
GRADIENT...LEFT COASTAL COUNTIES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY TODAY BUT                 
WENT AHEAD WITH HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE.                  
EVEN LIMITING DEWPOINTS TO 75 TODAY HAVE SEVERAL HOURS AT OR ABOVE              
105 ON THE HEAT INDEX CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.                                
GFS MAV MOS YIELDS 100 DEGREE HEAT ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT 850 MB                 
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FOR GFS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO                 
SEE HOW WE COULD GET MUCH ABOVE THE MIDDLE 90S DURING THE EVENT.                
HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN                 
DOWNSLOPE IN THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY SO WENT AHEAD WITH UPPER                  
90S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE MORE MIXING OF THE                
DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IT SHOULD BE HOTTER              
AND COVER THE 105 HEAT INDEX FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS.                        
GFS AND 18Z DGEX ONLY TEASES THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THUNDERSTORMS                 
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WENT BELOW                 
GUIDANCE ON POPS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                 
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL                   
NEARLY 15 C TO ABOUT 10 C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE KEEPS               
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO LEVELS BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT                  
HIGHS IN THE 70S. FOR NOW WILL ROLL WITH GUIDANCE.                              
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ052-                
WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072.                                                    
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-                 
WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-                 
WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070.                                             
$$                                                                              
MVK/11    - SHORT TERM & AVIATION                                               
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
424 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER DIED                    
FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSED ON AND THE STORMS TRIED                
TO MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE                
700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS. THEY WERE ALSO FED BY THE 750 MB JET THAT              
HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. STORMS ARE REGENERATING FARTHER                   
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND WHERE GOOD 250 MB DIVERGENCE IS AND WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE PROVIDING A LITTLE INITIATIVE. AN 850 MB JET IS                  
PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FEATURES                
ARE ANTICIPATED BY RUC TO BE WEAKER ONCE REACHING EASTERN ND BUT                
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING                
FOR DVL REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING.                    
LATER IN THE DAY THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY OVERCOME THE WEAKER CAP                
OVERLYING IT. BOTH NAM AND GFS DROP THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE 2C BY                
18Z...THEN IS ONLY +12C OVER WESTCENTRAL MN BY 00Z. THE ML CAPE                 
SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THOUGH A                  
SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND MAY TOUCH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL                    
BEHIND THE FRONT. RETAINED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EAST                  
OF RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY                   
WILL MOVE EAST AFTER THAT.                                                      
PONDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FFM/DTL/PKD AREA ESPECIALLY SINCE                  
THEY ARE STILL AROUND 80F NOW. BUT VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON               
AND THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE EROSION SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL DEW                    
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING ABSURDLY HIGH. STILL...                   
HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 105 AND DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                
.LONG TERM...MUCH COOLER THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITHIN 5 DEGREES                
OF SEASONAL AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS IS NO                      
SURPRISE AND LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NECESSARY IN EXTENDED PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
215 AM MDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT UPR RIDGE HAS SLID INTO THE UPR            
MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH SW FLOW ALOF INCREASING ACRS THE NRN PLAINS            
AS LONG WAVE TROF MOVS ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. PLENTY OF MID/UPR LVL            
MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NRN              
PLAINS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVR WY PRODUCING ISOLD/SCT HI BASED             
TSTMS ACRS THE WRN CWFA. STRONG CDFNT OVR FAR ERN MT WILL BE PUSHING            
INTO THE WRN ZONES VERY SOON.                                                   
TDY...CDFNT WILL BLAST THRU THE CWFA PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY               
GUSTY WINDS. BOTH NAM/RUC SUGGESTING WINDS UP TO 50KTS JUST OFF THE             
SFC...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FEW HOURS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
WINDS OVR THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. THUS...WILL POST A WIND             
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS             
THE CWFA AND PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS...BUT WITH LIMITED LO-LVL MOISTURE             
LITTLE OR NO PCPN WILL REACH THE GROUND. TEMP SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE              
TO 20 DEGREES FM WEST TO EAST.                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A                
POTENT MID/UPR WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. LO LVL MOISTURE MAY                
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED...BUT NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID/UPR             
MONSOON MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH                          
INSTABILITY/SHEAR INVOF CDFNT TO PRODUCE A FEW SVR STORMS ACRS                  
SCNTRL SD ON TUE. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO               
AVERAGE.                                                                        
WED AND THU...RATHER FLAT RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRY WX ALONG WITH A                
SLOW WARM-UP. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE NOWHERE AS WARM AS OUR MOST               
RECENT HEAT WAVE.                                                               
EXTENDED...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION              
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS                 
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND            
SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                   
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...PRODUCING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE            
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...A CDFNT OVR EXTREME ERN MT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE               
REGION TDY PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG. SOME             
AREAS ON THE PLAINS OF NWRN AND W CNTRL SD WILL SEE WIND GUSTS                  
APPROACHING 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTN.             
TEMPS WILL BE WIDE-RANGING...MID 80S ACRS NERN WY AND FAR NWRN SD TO            
JUST ABOVE 100 IN S CNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. IN                             
ADDITION...PLENTY OF MID/HI LVL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD HI-BASED            
TSTMS. SINCE LO-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS            
POSSIBLE. ALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN             
TDY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY.                                     
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT TODAY FOR NWRN AND W CNTRL SD.                
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JOHNSON/RUDGE                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
955 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
13Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY                     
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO              
SIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND NOW            
BUILDING EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. WEAKER UPPER                 
LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE                 
RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STILL NOTED FROM THE CAROLINA COAST            
BACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NE GOMEX. LONGER WAVE TROUGH                  
CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE                   
HELPING TO PUSH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE TO THE EAST COAST AND                    
SOUTHEAST WERE IT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE             
WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL                
DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO             
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE LATER PART OF             
THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE            
REFLECTION UNDER THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WOULD EXPECT                  
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR DYNAMICS FOR            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE              
COASTAL WATERS.                                                                 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST               
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER              
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEYOND THURSDAY...THE PATTERN               
BECOME A BIT MORE MUDDLED WITH SEVERAL INDISTINCT TROPICAL WAVES. AT            
THIS POINT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD BACK FROM MAKING ANY             
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...LATE MORNING INTO EVENING HOURS.                                  
12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWING THE COLUMN BELOW AROUND 600 MB TO STILL BE            
QUITE MOIST. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING THAT HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON WATER              
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CAN BE SEEN ABOVE GENERALLY 650MB.                   
TIMEHEIGHT ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA AGREE ON KEEPING THIS DRIER AIR             
CONFINED ABOVE 600 MB THROUGH THE DAY. MODIFYING THE MORNING                    
SOUNDING TO AN AFTERNOON MEAN SURFACE OF 92/69 YIELDS AROUND 2000               
J/KG OF CAPE...AND LI OF -4C AND PW VALUES OF APPROX 1.9"-2.0"                  
(110%-115% OF NORMAL). THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND A                
LACK OF MORNING CLOUDS NOT HOLDING BACK DIURNAL HEATING...SHOULD                
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. WITH THE                     
THERMODYNAMICS FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING NOTED ABOVE...THE AFTERNOON            
SEA-BREEZE...SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH                
ACROSS THE AREA...AND EVEN A FEW RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM                       
YESTERDAY'S ACTIVITY...FEEL GOING 40%-50% POPS WILL WORK OUT.                   
HOWEVER...AWAY FROM THE COAST IT MAY BE A LATER START TO THE                    
CONVECTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL                
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN              
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.                
WITH THE RIDGE IN THIS POSITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY                 
REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN            
BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND AS                   
USUAL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE                 
STRONGER STORMS. LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY OR FRIDAY)...A POSSIBLE              
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE               
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAY BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.             
IN THIS LATER WEEK TIME FRAME THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE               
EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WE SAW LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP BRIEFLY THIS                               
MORNING AT DHN AND ABY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REST              
OF TODAY WITH SCATTERED TS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO            
GROUPS FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT PFN AND FOR TS THIS AFTERNOON FOR            
TLH, PFN AND DHN. VCTS WAS USED AT ABY AND VLD. OVERNIGHT, WE ARE               
FORECASTING MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ABY AND VLD.                        
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS               
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                         
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1124 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CONCERNS ON UPDATE WILL BE STATUS OF HEAT ADVISORY OVER WRN COUNTIES            
AND CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.                                    
CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT MCS HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED OVER NRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF CIRRUS FROM THESE STORMS STILL LINGERS              
OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARY. BELIEVE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN CLIMBING TOWARD               
MID 90S (PROVIDED WE MIX TO 925 MB AS NOTED ON KGRB...KMPX AND LOCAL            
KSAW TAMDAR SOUNDINGS). THUS WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY INTACT FOR WRN            
COUNTIES AND KEEP PRETTY MUCH WITH GOING FCST TEMPS.                            
NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS                   
AFTERNOON ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 12Z RUC HAS PICKED UP ON            
THIS BOUNDARY WHILE THE 12Z NAM HAS NOT. RUC INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY            
WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. BUT GIVEN THE            
AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE OFF 12Z GRB (OVER 4K J/KG ASSUMING MID 90S             
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS REACHED) AND FACT THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN               
WAY OF CIN...FEEL COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA FOR                 
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH 0-6 KM BULK               
SHEAR VALUES 30-40 KT ISOLATED STORMS THAT FORM COULD BECOME                    
SEVERE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
00Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP SHOW BUILDING RIDGE INTO UPR MIDWEST INTO UPR             
LAKES WITH TROUGH PERSISTING OVR W CANADA/NW CONUS AND OVR E CANADA.            
MOST OF REGION IS HOT AND CAPPED WITH CONVECTION FIRING FM CNTRL ND             
INTO FAR S MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FM NW MN             
INTO SCTNRL SD. WARM FRONT STREAKS FM NW MN TOWARD N LK SUPERIOR.               
HOW CONVECTION TO THE NW PROGRESSES THIS AM IS MAIN SHORT TERM                  
CONCERN. EXCESSIVE HEAT THIS AFTN IS OTHER PRESSING CONCERN. COLD               
FRONT ARRIVES SOMETIME TUE/TUE NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE BRIEF               
BUT INTENSE HEAT WAVE.                                                          
TODAY...TWO SEGMENTS TO THIS DAY. FIRST IS CONVECTION TRENDS THIS               
MORNING. LATEST RADAR LOOPS FM NE ND AND DLH/MQT ALONG WITH CANADIAN            
RADARS SHOW BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FM ND INTO NCNTRL            
LK SUPERIOR. THESE STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF MUCAPES UP TO 7000 J/KG               
OVR N MN AND LIKELY ARE BASED ABOUT H85 AS THEY ARE DEVELOPING ON               
NOSE OF 45-50KT H85 JET. THUS FAR...WARMING ALOFT HAS CAPPED AIRMASS            
OVR CWA AND IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING THESE STORMS FM DEVELOPING SWD            
INTO UPR MI. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IF THE STORMS CAN EXPAND SWD AND            
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE A THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH OVERALL H5 HEIGHT              
RISES/H85 WARMING NOT SURE IF THE STORMS WILL DRIFT VERY FAR S FM               
CURRENT TRAJECTORIES. KEPT S ZONES DRY AS THAT AREA IS FIRMLY UNDER             
THE CAPPING AS SEEN ON GRB 00Z SOUNDING. SEEMS LIKE KEWEENAW                    
PENINSULA INTO FAR NE CWA WILL SEE THE ONLY CHANCE OF STORMS DURING             
THE MORNING WITH BEST CHANCES FARTHER N TOWARD ISLE ROYALE AND N LK             
SUPERIOR. IF LINE OF STORMS BEGIN TO DIVE FARTHER SE THEN                       
ADJUSTMENTS WOULD NEED TO BE MADE TO GOING GRIDS. BY AFTN HEIGHT                
FALLS DEVELOP OVR THE PLAINS HELPING TO ENHANCE RIDGING/MID LEVEL               
WARMING ACROSS UPR LAKES AND KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO N OF CWA.                
SO...EXPECT INCREASING S/SW WINDS AND SUNSHINE TO PUMP UP TEMPS AND             
HUMIDITY VALUES BY EARLY AFTN. MIXING TO H9 YIELDS MAX TEMPS BTWN 95            
AND 100 WHILE MIXING TO H85 WOULD RESULT IN MORE AREAS NEARING THE              
CENTURY MARK BY LATE AFTN.                                                      
LOOKING FOR A FLY IN THE FORECAST? IT IS FEASIBLE THAT THE ONGOING              
CONVECTION OVR N LK MAY PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD N UPR MI.               
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL PROBABLY BE MITIGATED SOME SINCE SW H9-H85                
WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT BY LATE AFTN. IF THE OUTFLOW IS NOT THERE OR            
DOES NOT PERSIST WELL INTO AFTN...THEN COOLING NEAR LK SUPERIOR WILL            
BE MINIMAL WITH SW WIND DIRECTION. IN FACT... DOWNSLOPING COULD                 
BOOST TEMPS WITH LOCATIONS FM BARAGA TO DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE HAVING               
GOOD SHOT AT 100 DEGREES. DAILY RECORD AT NWS OFFICE IS 94 SET IN               
1975 WHICH SHOULD FALL. COULD EVEN SEE THE ALL TIME RECORD AT NWS               
MQT OF 99 DEGREES FALL. UNLIKE THE DAY EARLIER THIS MONTH WHEN WE               
FLIRTED WITH 100 DEGREES...THIS HOT SPELL WILL HAVE OPPRESSIVE                  
HUMIDITY VALUES TOO AS DEWPOINTS THIS AFTN WILL RISE TO 65-70F. THIS            
WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BTWN 100 AND 110. NO CHANGES WERE MADE             
TO COUNTIES WITHIN GOING NPW AND SPS.                                           
FRONT OVER DAKOTAS DRAWS CLOSER TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE EJECTS FM NW               
CONUS ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE VERY               
CAPPED WITH CINH WELL OVER 100 J/KG. LIFTING FM H85 DOES YIELD                  
LOWER CINH AND STARTS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MUCAPES TOWARD 3000 J/KG.            
BROUGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NW LATE TONIGHT AS H85 FRONT             
CLOSES IN ON UPR LAKES. FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO UPR MI ON TUE.                 
ALTHOUGH N PORTION OF FRONT MAY QUICKLY TRANSLATE OVR CWA THINK THE             
S PORTION WILL BECOME STALLED AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES PARALLEL TO               
UPR LEVEL FLOW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. AT               
THE LEAST...THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS TO HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPS OVR             
MUCH OF CWA. EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS MAY               
RISE INTO THE LWR 90S.                                                          
SHORTWAVE OVR SW CONUS EJECTS TUE AND BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD                     
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR THE REGION. WHERE THE FRONT WILL                 
EVENTUALLY SETUP IS KEY TO THE TUE NIGHT INTO WED FCST. AS SHORTWAVE            
APPROACHES A WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND LIFT             
NE. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL BE OVR S UPR MI OR JUST A              
BIT FARTHER S. SO...MUCH OF CWA LOOKS IN LINE TO RECEIVE GOOD                   
RAINFALL ON CYCLONIC NRLY SIDE OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. CANADIAN                 
MODEL IS SLOWEST WITH OVERALL SCENARIO...NOT SHOWING RAINFALL ENDING            
OVR E/S ZONES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT. GFS/NAM/UKMET ARE FASTER SHOWING            
THE PCPN ENDING BY WED EVENING. DELAYED PCPN OVR E AND S BUT NOT AS             
MUCH AS CANADIAN SHOWS. INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR NOW...BUT IF MODELS            
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL POSITION...WILL NEED HIGHER POPS IN              
LATER FCSTS. TRENDED TEMPS DOWN ON WED OVR N CWA WITH INCREASING NE             
WINDS WITH LOW OVR WI/LWR MI. SOME SPOTS NEAR LK SUPERIOR MAY NOT               
EVEN REACH 70 DEGREES. QUITE A CHANGE COMPARED TO HEAT OF TODAY. NO             
CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND WED. HIGH PRES SETTLES IN LEADING TO DRY               
WEATHER TO CLOSE THE WEEK.                                                      
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING                                        
MIZ001>005-009>012-084.                                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
JLA (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1109 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE BLAST OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF SUNDAY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS BAD               
TODAY. THE SFC COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A KJMS-              
KGFK-KHCO LINE. BASICALLY THIS IS THE MAIN WIND SHIFT LINE WHERE                
THE WIND SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS DO                 
NOT DECREASE UNTIL YOU GET MUCH FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE FRONT                   
(AROUND A KBIS-KMOT LINE)...WHERE THEY FINALLY DROP INTO THE 45-                
55F RANGE. THEREFORE WILL HAVE MID 60 TO AROUND 70F DEW POINTS                  
OVER MUCH OF THE FA THRU THE DAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADVECTION OF               
THE DRIER AIR UNTIL LATE. AS FAR AS TEMPS...THE POOL OF 30C PLUS                
AIR AT 850MB IS NOT HERE TODAY. THERE IS A POOL OF 25C AIR JUST TO              
THE SOUTH/SE OF THE FA. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SITES IN THE                
FA TO MAKE A RUN AT 100F TODAY. IF ANYTHING...THINK WE MAY BE A                 
BIT TOO WARM. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT                 
...WHERE TEMPS SEEM TO BE STEADY OR FALLING A BIT SINCE SUNRISE.                
CONCERNED THAT AREAS FROM CANDO TO LANGDON MAY NOT SEE 80F AT ALL               
TODAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND UPDATE LATER IF NEED BE. WITH COOLER              
TEMPS...DO NOT EXPECT ANY AREAS IN THE FA TO GET TO HEAT ADVISORY               
CRITERIA.                                                                       
AS FAR AS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT                
COMING TOGETHER TO GET REALLY EXCITED ABOUT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE                 
AND INSTABILITY ARE AVAILABLE...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION AGAIN BEING              
THE DEGREE OF LIFT. WITH THE SFC FRONT...THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE               
AND THAT IS WHAT THE FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MENTIONED. THE UPPER                
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THE MAIN UPPER JET AXIS OVER                    
SOUTHERN CANADA. HARD PRESSED TO FIND ANY DECENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY               
TO PROVIDE A GOOD KICKER EITHER. 700MB TEMPS STAY PRETTY WARM THRU              
MOST OF THE DAY AS WELL...HELPING TO KEEP A WEAK CAP IN PLACE. ALL              
SAID...NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE TSTM POTENTIAL...BUT WILL KEEP                 
THE SMALL CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 424 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006)                         
SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CANADIAN BORDER DIED                     
FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSED ON AND THE STORMS TRIED                
TO MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE                
700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS. THEY WERE ALSO FED BY THE 750 MB JET THAT              
HAS SINCE MOVED INTO ONTARIO. STORMS ARE REGENERATING FARTHER                   
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND WHERE GOOD 250 MB DIVERGENCE IS AND WEAK                 
SHORTWAVES ARE PROVIDING A LITTLE INITIATIVE. AN 850 MB JET IS                  
PROVIDING SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FEATURES                
ARE ANTICIPATED BY RUC TO BE WEAKER ONCE REACHING EASTERN ND BUT                
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS MORNING                
FOR DVL REGION AND SLIGHT CHANCE WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKENING.                    
LATER IN THE DAY THE DAYTIME HEATING MAY OVERCOME THE WEAKER CAP                
OVERLYING IT. BOTH NAM AND GFS DROP THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE 2C BY                
18Z...THEN IS ONLY +12C OVER WESTCENTRAL MN BY 00Z. THE ML CAPE                 
SHIFTS EASTWARD QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THOUGH A                  
SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND MAY TOUCH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WELL                    
BEHIND THE FRONT. RETAINED A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS FOR EAST                  
OF RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THIS POSSIBILITY                   
WILL MOVE EAST AFTER THAT.                                                      
PONDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR FFM/DTL/PKD AREA ESPECIALLY SINCE                  
THEY ARE STILL AROUND 80F NOW. BUT VEERING WINDS DURING AFTERNOON               
AND THE 700 MB TEMPERATURE EROSION SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL DEW                    
POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FROM BECOMING ABSURDLY HIGH. STILL...                   
HEAT INDICES TO APPROACH 105 AND DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.                
LONG TERM...MUCH COOLER THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITHIN 5 DEGREES                 
OF SEASONAL AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THIS IS NO                      
SURPRISE AND LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NECESSARY IN EXTENDED PERIOD.                
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GODON                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
1015 AM MDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA WITH                 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND             
IT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 KT                   
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT. UPDATED POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TO                 
ACCOUNT FOR THE APPROACHING SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN             
SOUTH DAKOTA. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH WINDS DYING            
OFF THIS AFTERNOON.                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT UPR RIDGE HAS SLID INTO            
THE UPR MIDWESTERN STATES...WITH SW FLOW ALOF INCREASING ACRS THE               
NRN PLAINS AS LONG WAVE TROF MOVS ONSHORE THE WEST COAST. PLENTY OF             
MID/UPR LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS               
INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVR WY PRODUCING                   
ISOLD/SCT HI BASED TSTMS ACRS THE WRN CWFA. STRONG CDFNT OVR FAR ERN            
MT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WRN ZONES VERY SOON.                                
TDY...CDFNT WILL BLAST THRU THE CWFA PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY               
GUSTY WINDS. BOTH NAM/RUC SUGGESTING WINDS UP TO 50KTS JUST OFF THE             
SFC...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A FEW HOURS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA                 
WINDS OVR THE USUAL WINDY AREAS OF NWRN SD. THUS...WILL POST A WIND             
ADVISORY. IN ADDITION...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS             
THE CWFA AND PRODUCE ISOLD TSTMS...BUT WITH LIMITED LO-LVL MOISTURE             
LITTLE OR NO PCPN WILL REACH THE GROUND. TEMP SPREAD WILL BE CLOSE              
TO 20 DEGREES FM WEST TO EAST.                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A                
POTENT MID/UPR WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS. LO LVL MOISTURE MAY                
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED...BUT NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MID/UPR             
MONSOON MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THERE COULD EVEN BE ENOUGH                          
INSTABILITY/SHEAR INVOF CDFNT TO PRODUCE A FEW SVR STORMS ACRS                  
SCNTRL SD ON TUE. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BLO               
AVERAGE.                                                                        
WED AND THU...RATHER FLAT RIDGE WILL LEAD TO DRY WX ALONG WITH A                
SLOW WARM-UP. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE NOWHERE AS WARM AS OUR MOST               
RECENT HEAT WAVE.                                                               
EXTENDED...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL               
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK                 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE                  
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY                
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION              
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS                 
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...AND            
SPREAD TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                   
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...PRODUCING NORTH TO NORTHWEST SURFACE            
WINDS OF 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE DAY...AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...A CDFNT OVR EXTREME ERN MT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE               
REGION TDY PRODUCING A BRIEF PD OF VERY GUSTY WINDS THIS MRNG. SOME             
AREAS ON THE PLAINS OF NWRN AND W CNTRL SD WILL SEE WIND GUSTS                  
APPROACHING 45 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THIS AFTN.             
TEMPS WILL BE WIDE-RANGING...MID 80S ACRS NERN WY AND FAR NWRN SD TO            
JUST ABOVE 100 IN S CNTRL SD AHEAD OF THE CDFNT. IN                             
ADDITION...PLENTY OF MID/HI LVL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLD HI-BASED            
TSTMS. SINCE LO-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...SOME DRY LIGHTNING IS            
POSSIBLE. ALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CRITERIA AGAIN             
TDY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                            
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY.                                     
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT TODAY FOR NWRN AND W CNTRL SD.                
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT TODAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO INDICATE HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE               
MID 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AROUND 90 TO THE WEST...WHILE                
MODELS AND UA ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS                    
WELL...SO HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT                
WITH FULL SUN...AND LOW 90S IN THE WARMER SPOTS WEST OF THE BLUE                
RIDGE. I HAVE RAISED THE MAX TEMP MOST LOCATIONS BY A FEW DEGREES.              
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFT YET...BUT THEY LOOK                
REASONABLE BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS...SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE              
3 HOURS OR MORE OF HEAT INDICES > 104 DEGREES NEEDED FOR AN                     
ADVISORY TODAY AND THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERS IT              
WELL. WILL NEED AN ADVISORY BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE                  
PIEDMONT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS                  
FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT               
THIS AFT. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SO                
ABUNDANT THAT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 2000              
J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS              
A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER WV FROM AN MCS                
LAST NIGHT...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE VA                
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFT.                 
THE RUC ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21                
AND 00Z IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT                  
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD THRU ROA AND               
SMITH MTN LAKE AREAS...AND ON INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE I THINK                  
THIS IS OVERDONE...I DO THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO SEE                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO ADD INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN A VERY WEAK                   
STEERING FLOW...SO WILL ADD IN HEAVY RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES.                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 647 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG WILL BE OF CONCERN VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...RANGING FROM              
DENSE AT LWB <1/4SM TO MVFR VSBYS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT                 
ROA WHICH IS P6SM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z. FLIGHT                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH SCT CU FORMING IN THE MTNS. ISOLATED              
STORMS WILL FORM ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGES...FROM THE NC MTNS NORTH              
INTO SE WV. THERE WILL BE A HAZE AROUND AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES                  
STAGNANT. LWB SHOULD KEEP MVFR HAZE TIL 17Z. TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR              
VSBYS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN...FROM DOWN TO MVFR AT ROA...LYH...DAN                 
AND BLF TO VLIFR AT LWB. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 308 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT. FIRST OFF...THE                         
SHOWERS/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER PA/NRN WV FIZZLED OUT AS               
THEY MOVED SOUTH TOWARD SE WV. MORE ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN              
PA...BUT FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT NORTH AND EAST OF US THIS MORNING.                 
WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRT THE NE CWA THOUGH. ANY FOG WILL                 
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY. THE                
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE WILL STILL WEST OF US TODAY OVER THE TN                  
VLY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH.                
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS                   
FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN                 
HIGH...BUT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO              
STAGNANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 OUT EAST THIS                        
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY.                                          
THREAT FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES MORE TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES                  
OVERHEAD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE                 
YEAR...AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO +22C...WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. ONLY                
THREAT OF ANY SHOWER FORMING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF                  
NC...WITH THE CAP FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE DAY                  
WHERE PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA REACHES INTO HEAT ADVISORY                    
CRITERIA. SIMILAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND 22C. A                 
LITTLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN HEATING TEMPS. DEWPOINTS IN THE                
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL BRING                
THE ERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW               
WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.                                    
MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WEST...SO HAVE               
SLIGHT CHANCE HERE WED AFTN. EAST SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.&&                       
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
MADE NO CHANGES THIS PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE RIDGE COULD HOLD                   
STRONG INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST GFS/EC...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE                    
RIDING IN SAT-SUN.                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
HAZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS TURNING INTO PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT FOR            
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SOME LOW LYING SITES MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS               
WHILE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING TO VLIFR BY SUNRISE. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LWB-HSP BETWEEN 07Z-09Z MON.                               
SLOW RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON VISIBILITIES            
LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 6-8SM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE                
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                        
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORD HIGHS LOOK SAFE TODAY...BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE              
RECORDS BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR OUR SITES.                        
 ROANOKE    LYNCHBURG    DANVILLE    BLUEFIELD    BLACKSBURG                    
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
MON | 101/1953    99/1931     102/1953    93/1999      95/1953                  
TUE |  97/1953    98/1935     100/1999    90/1995      92/1999,53               
WED |  98/1955   101/1942      98/1999    92/1988      92/1953                  
THU | 100/1963   100/1935      98/1980    89/1987      92/1975                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
235 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
18Z WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASINGLY               
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. LARGE UPPER RIDGE SITTING ACROSS            
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IS BEGINNING TO               
MOVE EAST...BRINGING THE HIGH HEAT TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE                    
VALLEYS...AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK.             
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SEEN SPINNING ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE                
WEST OF THE RIDGE AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS STILL NOTED FROM THE               
CAROLINA COAST BACK ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE NE GOMEX. LONGER               
WAVE TROUGH IS NOW ONSHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC              
NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE HELPING TO                
PUSH THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE TO THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTS              
WERE IT WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.                 
GLOBAL MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL                      
DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TO             
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE LATER PART OF             
THE WORK WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SURFACE            
REFLECTION UNDER THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE AND HENCE WOULD EXPECT                  
LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ADDED UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR DYNAMICS FOR            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE              
COASTAL WATERS.                                                                 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER OR             
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                        
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL               
DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY. A LINGERING HINT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH             
OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX MAY RESULT IN A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND                
INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE TEMPS BACK INTO THE               
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS            
TO OUR NORTH. 1000-700MB FLOW LIGHT FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AND              
AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF 1.9"-2.0") WOULD POINT TOWARD NEAR             
CLIMO POPS FOR OUR CWA...HOWEVER DID KNOCK POPS DOWN 5-10% INTO THE             
30-40% RANGE DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE                   
COLUMN. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY BETWEEN               
1500 AND 1800 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE LOWER VALUES ARE DUE              
TO VERY UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE LCL/LFC (900-850MB).                 
LAPSE RATE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC OR               
EVEN LESS (5-6C/KM) AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HELPS TO WARM THE                  
MIDDLE LEVELS.                                                                  
MADE SIMILAR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE                   
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RESULTANT SMALL LAPSE RATES IN THE             
MIDDLE LEVELS. BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO THE 30-35% RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE            
FORECAST AREA AND NEAR 40% ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BAY COUNTIES WHERE            
POPS ARE MAXIMIZED WITH LIGHT WESTERLY MEAN LEVEL FLOW. WEDNESDAY               
LOOKS TO BE AS HOT IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH              
MIDDLE 90S LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS CLOSER            
TO THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AL/GA ZONES MAY SEE UPPER 90S            
FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                                           
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THE EXACT PATTERN EVOLUTION                 
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. GLOBAL                 
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AN UNORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL                       
DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE               
EASTERN GOMEX THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW              
LITTLE TO NO SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY                 
TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MOST LIKELY THE MAIN INFLUENCE              
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH               
THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. GOING FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CLIMO                
POPS WITH 40S AND 50S AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO BRING THESE UP AT                
THIS TIME.  LATEST THINKING FOR THE WEEKEND WOULD BE FOR THE                    
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO PULL BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTH A BIT. THIS                
WOULD TURN OUR LOW LEVELS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH POPS AND             
TEMPS RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE COASTAL                
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN             
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK                 
WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE IN THIS POSITION...WINDS AND SEAS WILL                     
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND             
EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER               
MIDNIGHT. AS USUAL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOCALLY HIGHER             
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. LATER THIS WEEK (THURSDAY OR FRIDAY)...A              
POSSIBLE UPPER DISTURBANCE/WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE FLORIDA                
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MAY BRING AN INCREASED            
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS                    
INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS. IN THIS LATER WEEK TIME FRAME THERE IS                
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE                    
DISTURBANCE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOKS LIKE TS ACTIVITY IS OVER FOR THE DAY AT PFN. WE KEPT TEMPOS               
FOR TS IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR DHN AND TLH WITH VICINITY AT VLD               
AND JUST A CB CLOUD GROUP AT ABY. THE OVERNIGHT FOG FORECAST IS A               
BIT TRICKY. BOTH DHN AND ABY WENT DOWN TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS                 
MORNING. WE DIDN'T GO QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC FOR TONIGHT, BUT STILL               
TOOK THEM DOWN TO LIFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN A TEMPO GROUP.             
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. PFN HAS A PROB30                
GROUP FOR MORNING TSRA, BUT THE OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD NOT SEE                  
ANYTHING BEFORE 18Z.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. RECENT RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE WILL HELP TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL              
VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                                
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  73 95 74 96/ 20 40 20 30                                           
PANAMA CITY  77 92 78 93/ 20 35 20 30                                           
DOTHAN       73 94 74 95/ 20 40 20 30                                           
ALBANY       73 96 74 97/ 20 40 20 30                                           
VALDOSTA     73 95 73 96/ 20 40 20 30                                           
CROSS CITY   73 93 73 93/ 30 40 20 40                                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WOOL                                                         
PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE HEAT WAVE                    
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH               
ATLANTIC...A RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND A               
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ALBERTA. WEAK SHORTWAVES STREAMING THROUGH THE             
RIDGE IS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE IS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW             
IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST               
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A COLD FRONT               
DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A LARGE DOME            
OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.                                 
A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES            
WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO                    
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL FLATTEN A BIT. THE               
SHORTWAVE OVER EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL MOVE TO NORTHERN JAMES                
BAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A            
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND MOVE INTO             
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT OVER MINNESOTA              
WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AND CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR.                      
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD GENERATE             
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. MUCAPE               
OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL BE 1600J/KG AND OVER WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR APPROACHING 2000J/KG THIS EVENING. K-INDEX WILL BE AROUND              
33 AND LI'S WILL BE AROUND -4C. THUS QUITE UNSTABLE. THE QUESTIONS              
WILL BE IF THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FEED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE              
DEW POINTS WILL BE AROUND 70F. PLAN TO KEEP A MENTION OF                        
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN             
PART OF THE CWA.                                                                
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL            
U.P. ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN                 
REACHING THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. WARM TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE            
WILL HELP GENERATE A MUCAPE OF 1500J/KG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.               
THE MEAN SURFACE TO 500 MB RH WILL BE AROUND 80 PERCENT. ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND OVERRUNNING OF THE FRONT WILL              
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FEED THE              
INSTABILITY. A FAIRLY STRONG THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AS WELL.            
THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR                    
TUESDAY. WITH THE COMPUTED DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES FOR                      
TOMORROW...IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND                           
HUMID...HOWEVER...THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE JUST BELOW THE 100F                    
CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY.                                                       
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH               
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO                  
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                
WILL BE AROUND 80 PERCENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVER THE                  
FORECAST AREA. IT DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS             
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN             
COUNTIES.                                                                       
NAM SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON              
WEDNESDAY. GFS MOVED THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MORE TO THE SOUTH OF                 
FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED MORE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES              
AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER              
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MUCH WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS               
UPPER MICHIGAN. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. THE DRY            
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IS RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY                  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE THE AREA ON              
THURSDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ALSO RACE ACROSS THE                       
AREA...HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING THE SURFACER RIDGE                 
SHOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING.                             
A NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A                 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GREAT SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY                 
NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD               
FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO TO A LOW OVER LAKE                
WINNIPEG THEN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MONTANA. THIS            
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.                    
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS            
THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES TO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ALONG             
THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS INSTABILITY HAS A CHANCE OF              
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE                
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL            
CANADA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO EAST CENTRAL QUEBEC ON               
SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE             
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVES OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO.                     
MEANWHILE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW               
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HELP DIRECT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 HEAT ADVISORY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING                      
 MIZ001>005-009>012-084.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
231 PM MDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...                                          
WINDS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN IN THE EAST...THOUGH GUSTS OF 25-30                 
MPH STILL BEING REPORTED FROM BAKER TO EKALAKA AND CAMP CROOK.                  
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. WILL CANCEL WARNING                
FOR ALL REMAINING ZONES EXCEPT FOR 133. WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST                  
WINDS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS EVENING AS PRESSURES ARE                
FALLING RAPIDLY NOW IN CENTRAL MT.                                              
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE NOW WITH COOLER SFC RIDGE EAST OF               
THE DIVIDE. RADAR ECHO COVERAGE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE UPSTREAM               
IN ID/NV/UT/WY IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT                   
BASIN AHEAD OF DEEP UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN CA. WOULD EXPECT                   
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW                    
TONIGHT AS TROF CONTINUES TO APPROACH US. GFS/RUC INDEED SHOW                   
INCREASING MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE                  
THIS EVENING. AS A SIDE NOTE THE NAM HAS INITIALIZED POORLY WITH                
REGARD TO DEPTH OF TROF TO OUR NORTH AND THAT OF THE TROF TO OUR                
WEST...IE IT IS MUCH TOO FLAT...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE                      
GFS...THOUGH BELIEVE IT TOO IS UNDERDOING GREAT BASIN ENERGY BASED              
ON NICE STRUCTURE ON WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY. THAT BEING               
SAID...LOOKS AS IF DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER THAN ANY              
WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE...AND THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR                  
SOME WET SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. OF CONCERN IS CURRENT                 
DEWPTS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. THIS WILL BE AN INHIBITOR AT                   
FIRST BUT THINK DYNAMICS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE DRY AIR.                  
EVEN AS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT EXITS ON TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR                   
ALOFT...ON THE ORDER OF -15C AT 500MB...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR                   
DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.                        
GFS/NAM/UKMET HINT AT ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IN DEVELOPING ZONAL               
FLOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO KICK OFF SOME                          
SHOWERS...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT DRIER AIR TO RETURN WITH THE                      
WESTERLY FLOW BY THEN.                                                          
HAVE SUSTAINED SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING THIS               
EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A BREAK TUESDAY                      
NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED ISOLD COVERAGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY. IT GOES               
WITHOUT SAYING THAT SOME WETTING RAINS WOULD BE VERY MUCH WELCOMED              
WITH THE WILDFIRES IN THE AREA.                                                 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF DAYS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HIGHS IN THE 70S ON                   
TUESDAY IF SHOWERS MATERIALIZE AND THE TIMING IS RIGHT. WILL BE A               
BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY BUT HIGHS SHOULD PEAK NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS                
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S.              
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED AS PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK. CURRENT                  
FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR PERIOD ARE ABOVE THE HIGHEST ENSEMBLE                 
VALUES IN SOME AREAS AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. ALL          
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING ZONAL WITH WEAK                     
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH                             
SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. KEPT                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK                      
SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. ON SUNDAY...SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT                
WITH GFS MOVING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE REGION WHILE                  
ECMWF SUGGESTS WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A BIT HIGHER                    
HEIGHTS. CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT                      
WEEK...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR               
THAT PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH                 
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF FOR MORE              
CONSISTENT SIGNAL. MEIER                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY                    
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OVER EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA WILL                       
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE               
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT              
AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY...CREATING SOME AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS                
PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MEIER                                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 055/080 055/085 057/091 058/089 057/090 060/091 060/091                     
    33/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
LVM 049/078 047/082 046/087 050/083 047/087 048/088 048/088                     
    33/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
HDN 054/082 053/087 052/095 057/091 059/092 061/093 061/093                     
    33/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
MLS 054/083 053/087 056/093 059/091 061/090 060/092 061/092                     
    23/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
4BQ 052/080 053/086 055/090 057/092 059/085 058/086 060/086                     
    34/T    21/B    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
BHK 051/082 053/084 052/093 057/086 056/087 056/088 056/088                     
    23/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
SHR 053/081 051/085 050/089 053/087 053/089 055/090 055/090                     
    34/T    22/T    20/U    02/T    20/B    00/B    00/B                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR               
      ZONES 33-37.                                                              
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
146 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH         
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ALOFT TENDING TO KEEP A CAP ON ANY                  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN SUCH A STAGNANT PATTERN...TAF                      
FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY PERSISTENCE WITH A LITTLE MORE TOMORROW                
THAN THERE IS TODAY. THAT MEANS LWB SHOULD GO DOWN TO LIFR                      
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF SOME RIVER FOG...AND THE REST OF THE                 
TAF SITES GENERALLY MVFR WITH FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT. I PUT IN A BRIEF              
PERIOD OF IFR AT BOTH LYH AND DAN TOWARD MORNING. HAZE MAY REMAIN               
MVFR INTO THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT FOR NOW I BROUGHT IT UP TO VFR 6SM              
HZ FOR ALL BUT LWB BY MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...IF                
ANY...SHOULD BE ISOLATED SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS.                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 1042 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006)                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
MORNING SOUNDINGS AT RNK AND GSO INDICATE HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE               
MID 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND AROUND 90 TO THE WEST...WHILE                
MODELS AND UA ANALYSIS INDICATE SOME WARM ADVECTION TODAY AS                    
WELL...SO HIGHS COULD EASILY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN THE PIEDMONT                
WITH FULL SUN...AND LOW 90S IN THE WARMER SPOTS WEST OF THE BLUE                
RIDGE. I HAVE RAISED THE MAX TEMP MOST LOCATIONS BY A FEW DEGREES.              
HAVE NOT ADJUSTED THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFT YET...BUT THEY LOOK                
REASONABLE BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS...SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE              
3 HOURS OR MORE OF HEAT INDICES > 104 DEGREES NEEDED FOR AN                     
ADVISORY TODAY AND THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERS IT              
WELL. WILL NEED AN ADVISORY BEGINNING TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF THE                  
PIEDMONT UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS                  
FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT               
THIS AFT. DESPITE WARMING TEMPS ALOFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SO                
ABUNDANT THAT MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL PRODUCE CAPES OF 2000              
J/KG IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LITTLE OR NO CAP. IN ADDITION...THERE IS              
A WEAK MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER OVER WV FROM AN MCS                
LAST NIGHT...AND THIS IS PROGGED TO PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE VA                
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND PIEDMONT BY MID TO LATE AFT.                 
THE RUC ACTUALLY DEVELOPS A LARGE SWATH OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 21                
AND 00Z IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT                  
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NEW RIVER VALLEY...EASTWARD THRU ROA AND               
SMITH MTN LAKE AREAS...AND ON INTO THE PIEDMONT. WHILE I THINK                  
THIS IS OVERDONE...I DO THINK THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO SEE                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TO ADD INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY               
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN A VERY WEAK                   
STEERING FLOW...SO WILL ADD IN HEAVY RAIN. NO OTHER CHANGES.                    
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 647 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOG WILL BE OF CONCERN VERY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...RANGING FROM              
DENSE AT LWB <1/4SM TO MVFR VSBYS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT                 
ROA WHICH IS P6SM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12-14Z. FLIGHT                    
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...WITH SCT CU FORMING IN THE MTNS. ISOLATED              
STORMS WILL FORM ALONG SOME OF THE RIDGES...FROM THE NC MTNS NORTH              
INTO SE WV. THERE WILL BE A HAZE AROUND AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES                  
STAGNANT. LWB SHOULD KEEP MVFR HAZE TIL 17Z. TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR              
VSBYS TO DROP ONCE AGAIN...FROM DOWN TO MVFR AT ROA...LYH...DAN                 
AND BLF TO VLIFR AT LWB. EXPECT THIS GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 308 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT. FIRST OFF...THE                         
SHOWERS/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OVER PA/NRN WV FIZZLED OUT AS               
THEY MOVED SOUTH TOWARD SE WV. MORE ACTIVITY STILL EXISTS OVER WRN              
PA...BUT FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT NORTH AND EAST OF US THIS MORNING.                 
WILL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SKIRT THE NE CWA THOUGH. ANY FOG WILL                 
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY. THE                
CENTER OF THE 5H RIDGE WILL STILL WEST OF US TODAY OVER THE TN                  
VLY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH.                
CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT TSRA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS                   
FIRING UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST. DEWPOINTS REMAIN                 
HIGH...BUT ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP IT FROM BECOMING TOO              
STAGNANT. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 OUT EAST THIS                        
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT CLOSE TO ADVISORY.                                          
THREAT FOR PRECIP DIMINISHES MORE TUESDAY...AS THE RIDGE MOVES                  
OVERHEAD. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE                 
YEAR...AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO +22C...WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. ONLY                
THREAT OF ANY SHOWER FORMING WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF                  
NC...WITH THE CAP FURTHER NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE DAY                  
WHERE PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN CWA REACHES INTO HEAT ADVISORY                    
CRITERIA. SIMILAR AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH 8H TEMPS AROUND 22C. A                 
LITTLE WESTERLY FLOW WILL AID IN HEATING TEMPS. DEWPOINTS IN THE                
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COMBINED WITH TEMPS AROUND 100 WILL BRING                
THE ERN COUNTIES ONCE AGAIN ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR NOW               
WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.                                    
MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WEST...SO HAVE               
SLIGHT CHANCE HERE WED AFTN. EAST SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED.&&                       
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                          
MADE NO CHANGES THIS PERIOD...BUT LOOKS LIKE RIDGE COULD HOLD                   
STRONG INTO FRIDAY PER LATEST GFS/EC...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE                    
RIDING IN SAT-SUN.                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
HAZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS TURNING INTO PATCHY MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT FOR            
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SOME LOW LYING SITES MAY SEE IFR CONDITIONS               
WHILE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS DROPPING TO VLIFR BY SUNRISE. ISOLATED            
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR LWB-HSP BETWEEN 07Z-09Z MON.                               
SLOW RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON VISIBILITIES            
LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 6-8SM. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE                
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.                                        
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORD HIGHS LOOK SAFE TODAY...BUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE              
RECORDS BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST OF RECORDS FOR OUR SITES.                        
 ROANOKE    LYNCHBURG    DANVILLE    BLUEFIELD    BLACKSBURG                    
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
MON | 101/1953    99/1931     102/1953    93/1999      95/1953                  
TUE |  97/1953    98/1935     100/1999    90/1995      92/1999,53               
WED |  98/1955   101/1942      98/1999    92/1988      92/1953                  
THU | 100/1963   100/1935      98/1980    89/1987      92/1975                  
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JJ                                                                              
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