AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO                                        
300 PM MST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TWO ITEMS OF CONCERN TODAY.  FIRST IS THE              
PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.  VERY LITTLE GOING ON                 
UPSTREAM OF US AT THIS POINT IN TIME ALTHOUGH THE RUC QG ANALYSES               
HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENT...ALBEIT WEAK...ASCENT OVER THE GREAT              
BASIN FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  UNFORTUNATELY THIS ASCENT IS LIFTING                
SOME PRETTY DRY AIR...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THIS WINTER...SO             
EXPECT ANY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z                   
FRIDAY.  ONCE ANYTHING THAT DOES GET GOING UP THERE STARTS IT SHOULD            
NOT AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH AS OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IS NOT TERRIBLY               
FAVORABLE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO GOOD AND            
THE QG LIFT REMAINS RATHER MARGINAL THROUGH THE DAY.  ALL OF THESE              
IDEAS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST LOCAL MM5 RUN SHOWING ONLY SCANT              
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE OTHER ITEM IS THE COLD             
AIR LURKING ABOUT TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HOW MUCH OF THAT WILL OOZE               
INTO THE CWA.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE                   
NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA BUT ITS SHALLOWNESS WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR            
IT MAKING IT UP THE HILL INTO THE DENVER AREA.  WITH THAT IN MIND               
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER TOMORROW.               
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON EVOLUTION OF AN                
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  MODEL             
RUNS FROM 12Z CONTINUED THE PRIOR TREND OF AN ELONGATED...NEGATIVELY            
TILTED UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEW MEXICO TO WASHINGTON BY                 
SUNDAY EVENING.  SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS CONTINUED WITH A SURFACE             
LOW OVER SERN CO/NERN NM AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER CANADA.                 
THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN WOULD ALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD            
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO ERN CO.  WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH            
AND THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT IS                    
BECOMING CLEAR THAT A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL DEVELOP                
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ONTO THE PLAINS AT SOME POINT.  THE               
18Z RUN OF THE NAM IS NOW SHOWING THE TROUGH TO HAVE LESS ELONGATION            
TO IT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW MORE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN              
COLORADO ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND                
THROUGH TOMORROW...HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND MAY            
BECOME NECESSARY.  FOR NOW...WILL JUST STICK WITH PROBABILITY OF                
PRECIPITATION VALUES IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.                                    
BEFORE THE TROUGH ARRIVES...OR POSSIBLY CUTS OFF...SATURDAY SHOULD              
SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY            
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.  ON THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER              
AS SHALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN FROM THE                  
NORTHEAST.  LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT            
SHOW THE MAIN COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY...BUT MOS            
GUIDANCE VALUES SHOW THE INITIAL COOLING ARRIVING SATURDAY.  IF THE             
COOLER AIR MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE             
OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WON'T BE TOO FAR BEHIND.                               
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN WINDING                
DOWN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  WITH UPPER LEVEL                   
RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON MONDAY...DRIER             
WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST              
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ET/KDRBY                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
905 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ISLTD TO SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL/NRN SECTIONS OF THE                 
CWA WITHIN THE PAST HALF-HOUR...AS SFC LOW DROP SE TO NEAR BEDFORD              
INDIANA AS OF 01 UTC MSAS ANALYSIS. 3HR SFC PRES FALL PATTERN                   
SUGGESTS LOW WILL TRACK ESE TOWARD CRW DURING THE REMAINDER OF                  
THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE ONGOING FCST OF 20-40% COVERAGE OF                  
SHRA THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08 UTC.                                                
EVEN WITH SHOWERS...SKIES ARE ACTUALLY PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF               
THE CWA...GIVEN CELLULAR NATURE TO THE PCPN. THERE HAVE ACTUALLY                
BEEN A NUMBER OF MDT-SVR TURBULENCE REPORTS BELOW FL180 THIS                    
EVENING OVER IN/IL/KY...OWING TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PCPN. SOME                
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP ON MOST RECENT SCANS...SO THUNDER              
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND IF THAT HAPPENS...SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE               
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS...7300FT PER 0145 UTC ACARS                
SOUNDING AT SDF.                                                                
FOLLOWING LATEST RUC...FEEL THAT LOWER STRATUS IN THE COLD AIR                  
WILL WORK INTO THE CWA AROUND OR AFTER 09 UTC. HAVE RAISED FCST                 
MINS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST RUC/NAM DATA. UPDATED FCST                
OUT BY 915 PM.                                                                  
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 PM EST EST THU MAR 16 2006)                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                 
SKIES CLEARED FOR A WHILE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BUT            
SINCE 19Z CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NEARLY              
ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS A WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.              
WINDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR               
SO.                                                                             
LOW PRESSURE...OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AT 19Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO             
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE LOW CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT TRACK IT WILL                
PASS VERY NEAR LOUISVILLE THEN JUST SOUTH OF LEXINGTON ON ITS WAY               
INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. SO FAR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN                 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS BEEN LIGHT. A FEW RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP             
ON KLVX RADAR DURING THE PAST HOUR SO PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM               
FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEMS                        
REASONABLE...BUT WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.                         
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS THE BIG QUESTION. BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP LOW            
NEAR OR TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE POPS DIFFER. GFS IS HIGHER...                    
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. WILL LEAN CLOSER             
TO THE LOWER NAM MOS FOR POPS AND WILL USE A BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.             
AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF                  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THEN OVERNIGHT THE               
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH LOWER CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE FA.            
THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY            
THEN CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST.                               
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO TONIGHT WITH SKIES STAYING             
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOME 20 DEGREES              
COOLER THAN TODAY.                                                              
SCHOLZ                                                                          
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
ONE FCST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE AMOUNT OF                
COOLING BEHIND A SHORT WAVE EXITING THE REGION TONIGHT. HOWEVER..THE            
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE PCPN POTENTIAL FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT              
MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE FA IN THE MONDAY AND                 
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW ON THE            
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM DURING TUESDAY.                                        
THE LATEST GFS 12Z MODEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF                
SOME WET SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR FA...BUT             
THIS SEEMS OVER DONE...SO WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF SNOW IN             
THIS FORECAST. I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE MODELS GET A LITTLE MORE              
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO DEAL               
WITH THIS. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOO COLD HERE. THE ECMWF IS A              
LITTLE SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO ITS A MIXED BAG.                  
SO WE WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS WITH SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENTS           
FOR ONSET OF THE PCPN. WE WILL ALSO RAISE THE MIN TEMPS AND LOWER THE           
MAX TEMPS FOR A MORE RESTRICTED TEMPERATURE RANGE DURING THE MONDAY             
NIGHT AND TUESDAY PERIOD WHEN THE PCPN CHANCES ARE THE GREATEST.                
--21                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1045 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                 
NICE LITTLE THUNDERSTORM OBSERVED ON RADAR AROUND                               
CINCY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF LOUISVILLE AT                 
02Z. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF OUR                
CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A BAND OF PRECIP MOVING                  
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THEY DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP.                
THE GFS/RUC WOULD ARGUE FURTHER NORTH BUT THE NAM LIKES THIS BAND               
TO SET UP FURTHER SOUTH AND IN FACT THE 18Z NAM FIZZLES OUT THE                 
BAND SOONER THAN ITS 12Z. WE FAVOR THE GFS...AND THE 18Z SPREADS                
SOME DECENT QPF IN A NW TO SE BAND ACROSS A WIDER PORTION OF OUR                
CWA WHICH INCLUDES THE DC METRO AREA. RUNNING SNOW TOTALS ON THE                
18Z GFS RUN ARE VERY INTERESTING...WITH 2-3 INCH TOTALS MAKING                  
THEIR WAY INTO THE DISTRICT (KIND OF ALONG HIGHWAY 50).                         
HOWEVER...BASED ON PROFILES...PRECIPITATION LIKELY STARTS OUT AS                
RAIN FOR A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE COOLING SUFFICIENTLY CAUSES                
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW. IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM WILL NO                
DILLY DALLY ON ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...SO THESE RUNNING TOTALS                  
REFLECTED ON THE GFS APPEAR TOO LARGE. HOWEVER...MAKING                         
ADJUSTMENTS TO RUNNING TOTALS...WE CAN SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES MAKING                 
ITS WAY INTO FREDERICK AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES AND WE HAVE EXPANDED                
THE SNOW ADVISORY EAST INTO THESE COUNTIES. WE ALSO INCREASED SNOW              
TOTALS FROM LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE REST OF THE DCA                
AND BALT METRO AREAS TO AROUND AN INCH OR AN INCH OR LESS. GIVEN                
WARM GROUND...THESE WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY SURFACES.                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE -RA OR -RASN INITIALLY BEFORE SHIFTING OVER               
TO ALL SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVIER BAND COULD SET UP                 
FURTHER NORTH AND AFFECT KIAD/KDCA.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 333 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                          
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CANADIAN                         
MARITIMES...WHILE A WAVE TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST.                
ACARS 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 120-150KT JET STRETCHES              
FROM THE PLAINS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. 12Z             
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1024MB ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST               
CONUS. A COLD/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWEST DOWN THE NEW             
ENGLAND COAST...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO A 1008MB CYCLONE ACROSS              
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST FROM              
THE CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A LEE TROUGH WAS NOTED ALONG THE              
MID ATLANTIC APPALACHIANS.                                                      
NAM/GFS/WRF ALL INDICATE A 50-100 WIDE BAND OF PRECIPITATION                    
DEVELOPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC                 
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...FORCED BY THE SHEARING                
MIDWEST WAVE WHICH IS INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE AREA. THE             
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE BAND...GFS IS FARTHEST                     
NORTH...AND THE WRF IS FURTHER SOUTH (MAINLY IN BLACKSBURGS CWA).               
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE NAM AS A COMPROMISE. A WEAK COLD FRONT                   
SAGGING SOUTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA WILL PASS THROUGH MOST OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION            
BAND DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE FINAL RESTING LOCATION OF THIS FRONT            
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE BETTER RESOLUTION NAM (AND PERHAPS WRF)               
PROBABLY WILL DO A BETTER JOB AT LOCATING THE FRONT...AND HENCE THE             
BAND OF SNOW (FURTHER SOUTH THAN GFS).                                          
TODAY WAS QUITE WARM...WITH MARYLAND ROADWAY SENSORS INDICATING                 
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES OF 55-70 DEGREES. MODELS INDICATE QUITE A SHOT            
OF OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC LAYER WITHIN THIS BAND...WHICH SHOULD            
OVERCOME THE WARM SURFACES THROUGH A HIGH SNOW RATE. PRECIPITATION              
MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS RAIN BEFORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING QUICKLY                    
PROMOTES SNOW.                                                                  
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE BAND LOCATION...DECIDED TO ISSUE A                
SNOW ADVISORY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECTING A 50-100 MILE                   
CORRIDOR OF THIS AREA TO SEE THE ADVERTISED SNOW ACCUMULATION.                  
FURTHER EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER OVERNIGHT...LOWERING THE             
CONFIDENCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FURTHER SOUTHEAST (UNLESS THE BAND              
IS ABLE TO SET UP THERE).                                                       
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AS THE SHEARED WAVE               
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. THE            
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COASTAL                 
SYSTEM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO FOLLOW.                                         
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER NEW                 
ENGLAND WITH THE CWFA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE                  
TROUGH...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE SHORTWAVES                
SHOULD ONLY LEND TO SOME CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                        
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH               
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
THE GFS IS PROGGING A COASTAL SYSTEM DURING FOR THE FIRST PART OF               
NEXT WEEK. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND SNOW IN THE                   
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTHERN                
HALF. TOO FAR OUT TO GET SPECIFIC WITH THE DETAILS.                             
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OUT FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME            
POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGANY FRONT.              
AVIATION...                                                                     
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING LATE TONIGHT.                           
50-100 MILE BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS REGION.                 
STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN LOCATION BETWEEN GFS-NAM-WRF. NAM WAS THE               
COMPROMISE...WHICH PUT THE HEAVIER SNOW/LOWER CIG AND VISBYS NEAR               
CHO.                                                                            
MARINE...                                                                       
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5PM FOR 20KT WIND                      
GUSTS. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH AS GRADIENT RELAXES WITH ARRIVAL OF                
COLD FRONT. WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY NEARLY A FOOT BELOW PREDICTED            
VALUES. THE LUNAR CYCLE IS WANING FROM A FULL MOON.                             
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002>004 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.             
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>031-042 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM             
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>055 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.             
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PELOQUIN                                                  
PREV DISCUSSION...ROGOWSKI/LISTEMAA                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
320 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DIGGING TROUGH OFF THE W COAST...WHICH IS             
ALREADY STARTING TO INDUCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN            
W. LOCALLY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN IA IS HELPING TO INDUCE                
FGEN NEAR A WELL DEFINED SNOWBAND EXTENDING FROM ERN IA...THROUGH               
NRN IL...AND INTO NRN IN. IFR AND LIFR VSBYS IN SN WERE BEING                   
REPORTED UNDER THIS BAND.                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
MAIN CONCERN IS WHAT TO DO WITH THE CURRENT SNOW ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH             
THERE IS GOOD SN FALLING AT THIS TIME UNDER THE BAND...WARM SURFACE             
TEMPERATURES AND PHONE REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOTHING HAS THE CHANCE             
TO STICK. FURTHERMORE...RUC PROGS SHOW BEST FGEN WILL PUSH E AND                
WEAKEN BY 00Z AS THE H8 LOW OPENS UP. SO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT             
WE WILL DROP THE ADVISORY.                                                      
OTHERWISE...SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CWFA              
BEING BETWEEN SYSTEMS...NAMELY A DEEP APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE               
WRN USA AND A BROAD STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER THE NEW BRUNSWICK                 
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A SHARP RIDGE JUST UPSTREAM AND DEEP SUBSIDENT             
NWLY FLOW OVER THE CWFA FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.                                 
TONIGHT - WILL DROP THE ADVISORY AND GO CLOSER TO 1-3 INCH TOTALS.              
FRIDAY - HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SILENT AS LOW SFC-H8 DELTA T AND LOW              
MEAN RH VALUES WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE KEEP LAKE EFFECT NEGLIGIBLE.               
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT - NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.                     
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD BLOCKING CONTINUES AT 500MB ACROSS THE NORTH            
PACIFIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOWERING OF HEIGHTS FROM THE ALEUTIANS                
EAST THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD HEIGHTS                
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ACROSS NORTHERN PACIFIC...WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC              
BLOCK RETROGRADING WEST TOWARDS THE DATELINE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN               
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH KEEPING AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW               
WEST OF THE CONUS...AND SLIDE SOUTH. EXTREME EASTERN QUEBEC MID                 
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF             
THE TWO MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALLOW BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING FROM              
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA...SASKATCHEWAN...AND MANITOBA EXTENDING            
SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS. LATE WEEKEND PROPAGATION OF JET                    
ALONG WEST COAST POINTS DUE S...WHICH WILL HELP DIG 500MB LOW                   
OFFSHORE OF CA. SW CONUS JET INCREASES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHERN             
STREAM LOW QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.               
EXPECT THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LWR                 
MI...HOWEVER A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN              
QUEBEC MAY FUNNEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INTO LWR MI. WEAK RETURN FLOW             
MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY.                
850MB TEMPS COOL TO -10 TO -13 DEG C THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH LGT NW              
FLOW...SCT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT TEMPS TO                
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORM.                                                
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL                     
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM 3 AM FRI THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM: TJT                                                                 
LONG TERM: BEACHLER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
300 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW ACRS               
THE SCNTRL CONUS TO THE S OF A VERY BLOCKED FLOW ACRS CANADA. DEEP              
NRLY STNRY VORTEX REMAINS OVER SCNTRL CAN...WITH OMEGA BLOCK UPR RDG            
OVER CNTRL CAN. SPRAWLING 1045MB SFC ARCTIC HI PRES BLDG INTO NRN               
MANITOBA UNDER THIS RIDGE. 12Z INL/YPL/YQD SDNGS SHOW DRY LLVLS...              
AND SFC DWPTS BLO 0F ACRS SCNTRL CAN/MUCH OF NW ONTARIO. 12Z PWATS              
AOB 0.10 INCH AT YQD/YPL/INL. SO DESPITE LGT NNE FLOW OF COLD AIR               
OVER LK SUP ATTM (UPSTREAM SFC TEMPS IN THE TEENS/H85 TEMPS ARND                
-13C)...NOTHING MORE THAN SOME PTCHY SC OBSVD OVER LK SUP. THERE IS             
A PAIR OF WEAK SHRTWVS ACRS NW ONTARIO AND SRN SASKATCHEWAN ON THE              
SRN FLANK OF THE RDG...BUT AIRMASS IS SO DRY MAINLY JUST HI CLD                 
OBSVD. OTRW...FA IS ON NRN FRINGE OF HI CLD ASSOCIATED WITH RATHER              
POTENT LO PRES MOVING E THRU THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. DRY NLY FLOW              
OUT OF RDG TO THE N WL KEEP THIS LO...ITS PCPN...AND EVEN MOST OF               
THE CLD COVER SAFELY TO THE S.                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE TEMPS/SMALL LES CHCS.                  
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC-H85 RDG AXIS                
REMAINING NRLY STNRY JUST W OF THE FA TO THE S OF HI CENTER NEAR NRN            
MANITOBA AND W OF BLOCKING VORTEX IN SE CAN THRU SAT. WEAK SHRTWVS              
OVER NW ONTARIO/SRN SASKATCHEWAN FCST TO SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN IN THE DRY            
N FLOW E OF THE RDG AXIS/W OF THE BLOCKING LO TO THE E. GFS/NAM FCST            
SDNGS SHOW INVRN HGT REMAINING ARND H9 THRU THE TIME WITH LTL CHG IN            
INVRN BASE TEMP (-12C TO -14C)...SO DON'T THINK THERE WL BE ANYTHING            
MORE THAN FLURRIES. SINCE SUN IS GETTING HIER IN THE SKY AND                    
INSOLATION BEGINNING TO DRIVE LK BREEZE CIRCULATION...SUSPECT LK CLD            
MIGHT BECOME MORE WDSPRD DURING THE NGTS AND THRU THE MRNG BEFORE               
BRKG UP IN THE AFTN WITH AIR TENDING TO RISE OVER LAND/SINK OVER                
WATER. WL PROBABLY MAINTAIN GOING FCST OF A BIT MORE CLD COVER/SML              
CHC POP ON FRI NGT/SAT OVER THE E AS LATEST NAM/UKMET HINT AT                   
SOMEWHAT HIER H85 MSTR/LOWER H85 TEMP SWINGING BY WITH PASSAGE OF               
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW OVER NW ONTARIO AND MORE NW LLVL FLOW...BUT WL               
NOT BE TOO PESSIMISTIC CONSIDERING DRYNESS OF UPSTREAM AIRMASS.  AS             
FOR TEMPS...WL GO AOB MOS GUIDANCE AT THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS             
AT NGT BUT THEN HAVE TEMPS RECOVERING AOA GUIDANCE WITH AT LEAST A              
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE/JUST A FEW CU DURING THE AFTNS.                           
THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE PROMISES TO BE A QUIET ONE WITH NEGATIVE              
NAO PATTERN PERSISTING...BLOCKING UPR RDG ACRS GREENLAND/NE CANADA              
LOCKING VORTEX IN PLACE ACRS SE CANADA. AT THE SFC...A SPRAWLING DRY            
AREA OF HI PRES WL REMAIN OVER CAN AND FORCE ANY LO PRES SYSTEMS                
MIGRATING E OUT OF WRN TROF TO STAY WELL S OF THE FA WITH RELATIVELY            
DRY NNE FLOW. ONLY PSBL FLYS IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE SHRTWVS                   
ROTATING ARND WRN FLANK OF STNRY VORTEX IN SE CAN AND PSBL WEAK LES.            
AT THIS POINT...TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THESE SHRTWS ABOUND. WL                   
MAINTAIN PCLYD-MOCLDY SKIES/LO CHC POPS FOR THE LK SUP BORDER                   
COUNTIES ON WED AND KEEP SN CHCS LINGERING THERE INTO THU. LATEST               
GFS RUNS SUG A SHRTWV PASSAGE ON TUE AS WELL...BUT WL HOLD OFF ON NO            
PCPN FCST GIVEN DRY LOOK OF ECMWF/UKMET/NCEP MANUAL GUIDANCE.                   
OTRW... EXPECT A RELATIVELY WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS SUN-TUE WITH            
MAINLY CLR SKIES. NIGHTTIME LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL BLO              
MOS GUIDANCE...BUT DAYTIME TEMPS WL RECOVER NICELY UNDER INCRSGLY               
STRG LATE MARCH SUNSHINE.                                                       
COORDINATED WITH GRB/DLH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1100 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AT 15Z THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NE MO...AND THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS             
WERE LOCATED ALMOST DUE E OVER THE IL/IN BORDER. THIS IS ENCOURAGING            
FOR THE SNOW ADVY...AS THIS SUGGESTS A MORE EWD TRACK OF THE LOW                
COMPARED TO LATEST GFS/NAM/NAMX PROGS OF A SEWD TRACK. RADAR                    
SUGGESTS SOME FGEN BANDING NEAR THE SRN WI STATE LINE...WITH SEVERAL            
METAR SITES REPORTING 1/2SM OR LESS. RUC H6 FGEN PROGS AGREE WELL               
WITH CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY...AND THIS AREA SHIFTS E TO FAR SRN LWR              
BY THIS AFTN. LOCAL SOUNDINGS QUITE DRY IN THE LOWER TROP THIS                  
MORNING...BUT THIS COULD HELP WET BULB COOLING EFFECTS LATER THIS               
EVENING AND KEEP PCPN AS SN WHEN BETTER FGEN WORKS E INTO THE AREA.             
AFTER COORDINATION WITH IWX...HAVE LOWERED SN AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY...BUT            
WE ARE KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING. TIMING LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE                  
LATER...SO HAVE WORDED THIS IN THE UPDATED WSW. WILL UPDATE ZONES               
SHORTLY.                                                                        
MARINE - HAVE UPDATED THE WIND GRIDS TO MORE CLOSELY REFLECT                    
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NAM WINDS. THIS PUSHES WAVES UP TO AROUND 4 FT BY             
10Z FRI MORNING. AS THIS IS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON A             
SCA FOR NOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM FRI FOR             
OTTAWA...ALLEGAN...BARRY...VAN BUREN...CALHOUN AND KALAMAZOO                    
COUNTIES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1028 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
POTENT LITTLE VORT TREKKING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ATTM. SNOW HAS                  
TAPERED OFF FROM WEST CNTRL MN TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS THIS                     
MORNING. WILL LET WARNING EXPIRE AT NOON FOR WC MN TO THE TWIN                  
CITIES AREA. SOME EVIDENCE OF MODEST BANDING IN PORTIONS OF SC MN               
INTO WISC AND DESPITE WEAKENING TREND IN MODELS...12Z NAM CROSS                 
SECTIONS OF NEGATIVE EPV...OMEGA AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY DO SUGGEST               
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE SUCH THAT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE              
FROM AEL TO RGK AND EAU. IN FACT...BUFKIT SHOWS LIFT NOW IN THE                 
SNOW GROWTH LAYER WITH ABOUT FOUR INCHES AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.                
THUS WILL KEEP THE WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SC MN TO EAU               
AREA.  TDK.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT                                       
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND NEAR                 
NORTH EDGE OF MAX 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST SOMEWHAT            
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND ALSO SAGGED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH            
SINCE 06Z. LAPS STORM TOTAL SNOW SHOWING 3 TO 4 INCHES FROM THIS                
BAND...AND SEEMS TO BE CLOSE BASED ON REPORTS WE WERE RECEIVING AT              
AROUND MIDNIGHT. 06Z NAM AND RUC SHOWING THAT THIS FORCING REMAINS              
CLOSE TO THE SAME AREA FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS MORNING AND THEN                 
SHIFTS SOUTH DURING MID MORNING AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER..VORT             
MAY OVER NE NEB AREA WILL ENHANCE FORCING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS            
MORNING...AND THIS LINGERS INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD KICK UP                 
MORE OVER SOUTHERN MN AS SURFACE LOW PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.               
WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING WITH SAME GENERAL TIME FRAME TODAY..BUT             
EXTEND INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD               
WORK OUT OK. AREAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE NOT RECEIVED MUCH SNOW            
YET BUT THIS SHOULD PICK UP THIS MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS              
AROUND MSP AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI THOUGH IF ANOTHER BAND                     
DEVELOPS. A BIT OF A SUSPECT AREA OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN TERMS OF              
REACHING WARNING SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO SECONDARY                   
FORCING MECHANISMS MENTIONED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATER             
TONIGHT SHOULD BLOW CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS IN MANY AREAS. DRIER AIR               
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW SHOULD HELP TO DROP               
MID TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE.                                                       
LONGER TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                           
LATEST GFS...00Z VERSION...CONTINUES PREVIOUS TREND OF A VERY BLOCKY            
PATTERN WITH THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...AND            
A PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POKING DOWN INTO MN FROM                   
CANADA. TRIMMED BACK THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO JUST WESTERN AND              
SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THAT MAY STILL BE                 
TOO MUCH. 00Z MEX TEMPERATURES DEPICT BELOW NORMAL VALUES...AND                 
GIVEN THE SURFACE AND UPPER PATTERN FROM THE LAST 3 RUNS OF THE GFS             
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-BROWN-CARVER-          
     CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-                 
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-               
     SWIFT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES.                          
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLUE                
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-MARTIN-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-                
     WATONWAN COUNTIES.                                                         
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHIPPEWA-           
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX COUNTIES.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/MTF/RJN                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1040 AM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MOIST LOW LEVEL AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS               
THE REGION IS STARTING TO BE AFFECTED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION              
OF A UPPER JET STREAK PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS BIT OF            
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST SOME                 
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST            
SECTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS WITH AT LEAST SPOTTY SHOWERS AFFECTING                
MOST SPOTS BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS OUT. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT                       
ANTICIPATED AND THE RISK OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS PRETTY                
LOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND VERTICAL              
TOTALS HOLDING LESS THAN 26. STILL COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL FALLING             
FROM THE STRONGEST CORES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 IN NORTHEAST LA             
AND SOUTHWEST MS (WHERE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS WOULD ALSO            
NOT BE INCONCEIVABLE).                                                          
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES A LITTLE (MAINLY A              
TOUCH DOWNWARD) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE 60S IN THE REGION            
WITH CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT PRECIP. POPS WERE ALSO BROUGHT UP TO               
CATEGORICAL (80) IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS AS RADAR TRENDS AND THE              
LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST VERY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP             
AMOUNTS BY 00Z IN THESE AREAS. /BB/                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS             
SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT IS                 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS THAT WILL TRACK EAST             
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                     
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY. LOCAL WIND                 
PROFILERS ACROSS EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI SHOW THE 80H            
FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASED TO 30-40KTS. THIS HAS               
LED TO AN INCREASED MID LEVEL DECK ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING                  
INCLUDING A FEW RETURNS ON LOCAL RADARS IN THE SW THAT ARE LIKELY               
NOT REACHING THE GROUNDS. OUR SFC DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO                  
INCREASE WITH SITES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 STILL IN THE MID 30S. HAVE              
BACKED OFF ANY POPS IN THE CWA UNTIL AFTER 6 AM. LIGHT RAIN WILL                
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS            
TO REMAIN LIMITED THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FAVORABLE             
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE                 
RULED OUT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND PARISHES BEFORE NOON. THE               
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN OUR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES BY 6            
PM THIS EVENING. AN NARROW POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED JUST               
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE             
REGION OF A 110KT JET STREAK MOVES OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND               
PARISHES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A BRIEF TIME PERIOD LATE THIS             
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME               
STRONG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST                     
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED                
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE              
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR JACKSON AT MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH OF                      
HATTIESBURG BY THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE RAIN                
WILL FALL SOUTH OF I-20 TODAY AND HAVE GONE ABOVE GUIDANCE THERE.               
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS EDGING INTO OUR                  
REGION WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CANADA NOSES SOUTH             
ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BUT                 
RATHER MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. /22/                                         
COLD...WET WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE CWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT TAKES OVER             
SAT MORNING AND LAST THROUGH MON. WE WILL NEED TO MOISTEN UP THE                
COLUMN SOME FIRST AND THAT WILL TAKE ALL DAY FRIDAY AND INTO                    
SATURDAY SO NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP UNTIL                
LATE SAT MORNING OR EVEN AFTER MIDDAY BUT ONCE IT STARTS IT COULD BE            
A LONG TIME UNTIL THE RAIN COMPLETELY ENDS. IT WILL START OF AS SHRA            
AND LAST LIKE THAT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUN BUT BY SUN AFTERNOON             
THERE MAY BE SOME SCT EMBEDDED TSRA AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY                
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY ALL CHANGE MON AS TSRA WILL BE MORE               
WIDESPREAD AND THE RAIN MAY GETS HEAVIER AND STARTS TO ACCUMULATE               
POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SEVERE                 
STORMS BECOME POSSIBLE.                                                         
GFS CONTINUES TO COME MORE INLINE WITH THE EURO ON THE TIMING OF                
MONDAY'S SYSTEM. STILL A VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN MAKER WITH THE                    
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. H5 LOW DIGS INTO THE STHRN PLAINS AND            
GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED MON WHILE THE SFC LOW TRACKS FROM TX THROUGH             
AR AND INTO TN/KY. GFS STILL SHOWING LL FLOW OF 45-55KTS BRINING IN             
H85 THETA E AIR OF 330K+ (UP TO 334K). VERY GOOD ELEVATED                       
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWALTERS OF -3.  WIND FIELD IS IMPRESSIVE AND                
FAVORABLE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK COUPLED            
JET FEATURE OVER ESTRN MS BY 00Z TUE WITH A 120KT+ JET CORE MOVING              
THROUGH NRTHN LA AND STHRN AR. 60 KT H5 FLOW INCREASING TO AS HIGH              
AS 100 KTS PUSHING INTO THE CWA LATE MON. 65 TO 80 KTS H7 BRINGING              
IN ANOTHER STRONG DRY PUNCH AND MENTIONED EARLIER A LL JET OF 45 TO             
55 KTS SETTING UP OVER THE MS/AL BORDER. TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF H5              
LOW AND SFC LOW HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE PAST.             
DEEP MOISTURE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH PWS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2" MON.               
THE PROBLEM MAY BE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND DEWPOINTS ONCE AGAIN. GFS            
DOES SHOW LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS AND MAYBE MID 60S DEWPOINTS PUSHING                
INTO THE AREA. ALSO WITH RAIN GOING ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO             
MON THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AND THIS               
WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM HEATING UP DURING THE DAY HINDERING                     
DESTABILIZATION. I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO THE THREAT OF            
BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT THE MAIN THREAT                 
LOOKS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS OF RIGHT NOW.                                    
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE MON EARLY TUE...EXPECT DRIER               
AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. SPEAKING OF TEMPS I AM                
VERY CONFUSED WITH THE GUIDANCE TEMPS. RIGHT NOW THE MEX GUIDANCE               
SEEMS TO WARM COMPARED TO THE LL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY TUE.  LOOKING AT            
CLIMATE STATISTICS FOR OUR AREA...IN MID MARCH WITH H85 AND H925                
TEMPS OF LESS THAN 2C(GFS SHOWING H85 TEMPS DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE             
DAY TO AS LOW AS -3C WHILE H925 TEMPS DROP TO -3/-4C) WE HAVE A VERY            
HARD TIME GETTING ABV THE UPPER 50S. THE BIGGER PROBLEM IS THAT                 
THESE LL TEMPS ARE A GOOD BIT LOWER THAN 2C AND THIS MAKES IT HARD              
FOR US TO GET TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S. I HAVE A HARD TIME GOING 10             
DEGREES OR MORE AWAY FROM GUIDANCE BUT I AM GOING TO GO A GOOD BIT              
COOLER ATLEAST 5 DEGREES EVERYWHERE AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN SOME              
LOCATIONS. WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEFORE               
MAKING FINAL ADJUSTMENTS. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL                   
ACTUALLY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS COOLING THROUGH               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
TEMPS REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE WEEK BUT DO START TO MODERATE A LITTLE            
BY WEEKS END. ALSO WE REMAIN DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY FRI BUT THE 3 DAYS              
OF DRY WEATHER MAY BE WELCOME FOR THE AREA TO DRY FROM THIS WEEKENDS            
DELUGE. /CAB/                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS REMAINING ABOVE 3000FT ARE             
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AS RAIN AND             
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRIEF            
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL            
BE GREATEST SOUTH INTERSTATE 20 TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS               
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2-3KFT ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z FRI AS THE COLD             
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  /22/                                              
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
832 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER. TIME               
AND CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE RUC AND GFS40 HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN               
BRINGING IN MOISTURE BETWEEN H8 AND H5 TOWARD MORNING. WILL TWEAK               
SKY COVER GRIDS AND INCREASE CLOUDS AFTER 08Z OR SO. WITH CLEAR                 
SKIES CURRENTLY AND TEMPS ALREADY DOWN NEAR FCST MINS...WILL DROP               
MINS A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES AS WELL. OTHERWISE...FCST DATABASE                
IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AS CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY GIVE              
WAY TO BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF 5K FT TOWARD                    
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...PLACEMENT OF WEAK HIGH PRES OFF THE NRN OUTER BANKS AND               
WEAK LOW OFF OCRACOKE CREATING SE WINDS N OF OREGON INLET WITH SW               
ELSEWHERE. MAY FINE TUNE WIND DIRECTIONS A BIT...BUT OVERALL FCST               
IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM           
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ154-156 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
930 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TONIGHT...MAINLY DEALING WITH CLOUD COVER.               
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA EXCEPT FOR               
THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE MVFR STRATUS REMAINS. RUC AND NAM BOTH                  
INCREASE THE 925 MB RH IN THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL ADJUST             
CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING              
THEN INCREASE THE STRATUS OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP               
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG BUT WILL CUT BACK ON ITS EASTERN EXTENT TO                
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD              
SHAPE.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...                                   
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT/CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG ALONG WITH LOW               
CIGS TONIGHT WEST AND SOUTH...THEN A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING                
SNOW WEST AND CENTRAL OVER THE WEEKEND.                                         
CURRENTLY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THINNING AND MOVING EAST                  
PRODUCING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE               
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS                
WERE CREATING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST.                               
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN ADDITION TO SNOWMELT TODAY               
ALL SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING ALONG                
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE THUS INCREASED SKY COVER              
AND INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE 15Z TOMORROW            
MORNING. EVENING SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE SITUATION LATER TONIGHT.                 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR                      
FRIDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE EAST.                 
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS DURING               
THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE                 
SURFACE PATTERN...AND INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEST TO EAST.                 
INCREASING CLOUDS ALSO ARE EXPECTED SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE                  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. UPPER            
RIDGE SLIDES EAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INITIATING                 
ALOFT. SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME WITH LOW PRESSURE WEST AND              
HIGH PRESSURE EAST...WITH THE GRADIENT SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE             
NEXT DAY OR SO. DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND                 
SATURDAY WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL                       
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO                   
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES...THEN EXPAND                   
NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING...COVERING MUCH OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL              
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH             
THE WEEKEND WITH SNOW LIKELY WEST AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW CENTRAL.            
DRY HIGH PRESSURE EAST WILL MINIMIZE SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE EASTERN            
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY SATURDAY                  
AFTERNOON OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WITH NEAR ADVISORY VALUES PROBABLE. AT            
THIS POINT TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 4                
INCH RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE WEST. WITH THE SNOW              
AND WIND...WINTER HEADLINES COULD BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT            
OR TOMORROW.                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...ENDING             
THE THREAT OF SNOW EAST TO WEST.                                                
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                   
THE LONG TERM IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE              
STATE BETWEEN TWO LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE EXITING OUR                  
REGION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND CANADA AND THE OTHER OVER THE WEST            
COAST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY AND              
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE ARCTIC HIGH FROM CENTRAL CANADA NOSES            
SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND COOLER               
THAN AVERAGE. BY THURSDAY THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE                  
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE TWO MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW            
PRESSURE SYSTEMS REMAIN ON EACH COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.                         
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
TWH/NH/JV                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
756 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
RAIN WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED                 
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS IN              
THE WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND DAYTON ZONE GROUPS.                                   
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST...WILL LIKELY UPDATE AGAIN IN THE                  
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES CLOSER AND PCPN COVERAGE CHANGES.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 653 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                           
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT                 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. KDAY WILL              
SEE P6SM SNOW FOR THE NEXT HOUR. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO               
THE SFC LOW IN SW INDIANA DOES CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING...AND WILL                
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES                       
EASTWARD.                                                                       
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OF THE TERMINALS...CEILINGS WILL BECOME                
MVFR AS WINDS SHIFT NE AROUND 12 KTS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW                 
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW 06Z TO 10Z.                                    
CIGS WILL BECOME VFR 12Z-14Z...LIKELY SCATTERING OUT 16Z TO 19Z.                
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 245 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT WITH DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE                
GROUND (NOT SURE IF THE .12 REPORTED ON THE AOH OB THIS PAST HOUR               
WAS REAL). 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING PCPN DOWN ACROSS AREA            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE DRY SLOT               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON               
THIS...KEEPING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE 290K-295 K SURFACES BETWEEN NOW             
AND 03Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BEGIN TO FILL IN A LITTLE             
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO              
FA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIRLY SHARP               
SOUTHERN EDGE. WILL THEREFORE...ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OFF FROM                
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON BLEND OF FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM...EXPECT PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN             
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR                    
SOUTH...ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON ANY                 
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE FACT THAT                
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND POSSIBILITY            
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE                   
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR THE EARLIEST...WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES               
WITH UP TO AN INCH DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CHANGE            
OVER SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.                          
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH            
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE THEN            
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR QUIET WEATHER             
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH              
THE ONSET OF PCPN.  THEREFORE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL MONDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  06Z RUN HAS THE              
LOW IN CNTRL KY AT 12Z TUE...12Z GFS NOW HAS IT IN ERN TN. WENT  A              
BLEND OF 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS...SO WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z MEX FOR HIGHS            
TUE. THE BLEND OF THE THICKNESSES PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND THE            
OHIO RIVER FOR TUE...BUT THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW ON THE BACKEDGE.                                                           
LOW PULLS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD NW                        
FLOW...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SHOWERS WED AND THU.                                                            
OTHER THAN BEING COOLER WITH TUE MAXS...WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.              
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
653 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (00Z-24Z)...                                                          
RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT                 
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING. KDAY WILL              
SEE P6SM SNOW FOR THE NEXT HOUR. A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO               
THE SFC LOW IN SW INDIANA DOES CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING...AND WILL                
MONITOR THIS TO SEE IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT PROGRESSES                       
EASTWARD.                                                                       
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SE OF THE TERMINALS...CEILINGS WILL BECOME                
MVFR AS WINDS SHIFT NE AROUND 12 KTS. COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LOW                 
WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW 06Z TO 10Z.                                    
CIGS WILL BECOME VFR 12Z-14Z...LIKELY SCATTERING OUT 16Z TO 19Z.                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 245 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT WITH DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE                
GROUND (NOT SURE IF THE .12 REPORTED ON THE AOH OB THIS PAST HOUR               
WAS REAL). 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING PCPN DOWN ACROSS AREA            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE DRY SLOT               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON               
THIS...KEEPING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE 290K-295 K SURFACES BETWEEN NOW             
AND 03Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BEGIN TO FILL IN A LITTLE             
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO              
FA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIRLY SHARP               
SOUTHERN EDGE. WILL THEREFORE...ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OFF FROM                
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON BLEND OF FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM...EXPECT PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN             
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR                    
SOUTH...ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON ANY                 
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE FACT THAT                
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND POSSIBILITY            
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE                   
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR THE EARLIEST...WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES               
WITH UP TO AN INCH DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CHANGE            
OVER SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.                          
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH            
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE THEN            
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR QUIET WEATHER             
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH              
THE ONSET OF PCPN.  THEREFORE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL MONDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  06Z RUN HAS THE              
LOW IN CNTRL KY AT 12Z TUE...12Z GFS NOW HAS IT IN ERN TN. WENT  A              
BLEND OF 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS...SO WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z MEX FOR HIGHS            
TUE. THE BLEND OF THE THICKNESSES PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND THE            
OHIO RIVER FOR TUE...BUT THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW ON THE BACKEDGE.                                                           
LOW PULLS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD NW                        
FLOW...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SHOWERS WED AND THU.                                                            
OTHER THAN BEING COOLER WITH TUE MAXS...WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.              
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
245 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                 
DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT WITH DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE                
GROUND (NOT SURE IF THE .12 REPORTED ON THE AOH OB THIS PAST HOUR               
WAS REAL). 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING PCPN DOWN ACROSS AREA            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE DRY SLOT               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON               
THIS...KEEPING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE 290K-295 K SURFACES BETWEEN NOW             
AND 03Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BEGIN TO FILL IN A LITTLE             
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO              
FA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIRLY SHARP               
SOUTHERN EDGE. WILL THEREFORE...ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OFF FROM                
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON BLEND OF FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM...EXPECT PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN             
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR                    
SOUTH...ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON ANY                 
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE FACT THAT                
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND POSSIBILITY            
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE                   
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR THE EARLIEST...WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES               
WITH UP TO AN INCH DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CHANGE            
OVER SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.                          
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH            
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE THEN            
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR QUIET WEATHER             
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                         
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH              
THE ONSET OF PCPN.  THEREFORE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL MONDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  06Z RUN HAS THE              
LOW IN CNTRL KY AT 12Z TUE...12Z GFS NOW HAS IT IN ERN TN. WENT  A              
BLEND OF 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS...SO WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z MEX FOR HIGHS            
TUE. THE BLEND OF THE THICKNESSES PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND THE            
OHIO RIVER FOR TUE...BUT THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW ON THE BACKEDGE.                                                           
LOW PULLS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD NW                        
FLOW...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SHOWERS WED AND THU.                                                            
OTHER THAN BEING COOLER WITH TUE MAXS...WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.              
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO                   
DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO THE TAF SITES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z                 
WITH LITTLE OR NO RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BY             
THIS TIME BUT STILL BE VFR. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE                   
TERMINALS EXPECT CEILINGS TO BECOME MVFR. COLDER AIR WILL CAUSE A               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT ALL BUT CINCINNATI BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION              
TAPERS OFF. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH              
A TROUGH TRAILING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN               
AFTER 12Z RESULTING IN CEILING LIFTING BACK TO VFR AND SOME                     
LOCATIONS MAY BECOME SCATTERED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST                   
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
903 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
VERY DRY/STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT              
THIS TIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S RESULTING IN                      
HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT. A SLOW RISE IN DEWPOINTS                  
SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS BUT VALUES SHOULD            
STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW EVEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 12Z NAM/GFS              
12 HR FORECASTS VALID 00Z WERE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TOO MOIST WITH THE              
DEWPOINTS. THE LATEST FSL RUC INITIALIZES THESE LOW VALUES MUCH                 
BETTER AND HAVE USED IT AS GUIDANCE FOR LOWERING DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT            
AND ALSO THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY                
SHOULD STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW THE HIGH CATEGORY HOWEVER AS                    
INSOLATION WILL BE LIMITED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH LIGHT              
EASTERLY WINDS.                                                                 
OTHERWISE...THE STAGE IS SET FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THIS                  
WEEKEND WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED. THE THERMODYNAMIC             
PROFILE IS ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DUE TO A                    
CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN            
TEXAS UP TO ABOUT 650 MB. AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY AT THE                  
MOMENT BUT THAT WILL CHANGE SOON AS HIGH BASED MOISTURE RESIDING                
NEAR THE GULF BEGINS ITS NORTHWARD TRANSPORT EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE              
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT.                             
THE EXACT TIMING AND SUBSEQUENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND            
WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH            
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. 18Z MODELS ALREADY BACKED OFF ON             
ITS SPEED A LITTLE BIT THIS WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE 12Z MODELS AS A             
SUBSTANTIAL REGION OF DARKENING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND                      
ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPROACH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.            
THE NEW 00Z NAM CONTINUES THIS TREND AS WELL...DEPICTING THE                    
DEVELOPING LOW A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST OF EARLIER FORECASTS...                  
RESULTING IN ABOUT A 6 HR DIFFERENCE IN ARRIVAL. OVERALL DIFFERENCES            
APPEAR INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR                
POSSIBLE SLOWER/MORE SOUTHWARD PATH.                                            
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO                   
HIGHLIGHT THE RAIN EVENT THIS WEEKEND WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS LIKELY              
EXCEEDED WHAT HAS BEEN RECEIVED IN SOME AREAS FOR THE LAST 6                    
MONTHS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE                        
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. WIND PROFILES                 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT FOR QUITE A LONG PERIOD              
OF TIME. THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN                
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH BASED INSTABILITY THAT                
WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY HAIL IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER FRIDAY                 
NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY VERY                
WELL CONTINUE SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR            
SO OF THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY ALL THE               
DETAILS...BUT WILL WATCH CAREFULLY.                                             
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
332 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH THE THINKING OF THE PAST SEVERAL                  
DAYS. BASICALLY... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH                 
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND... BRINGING OUR FIRST CHANCE AT                
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IN QUITE SOME TIME. AS THE STORM SYSTEM PARKS                  
OVER THE REGION... WAVES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS                
AND OKLAHOMA... WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS PROBABLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AT              
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OKLAHOMA. AFTER SUNDAY...                  
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE FORMER                
TAKES THE UPPER SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. OUR PREVIOUS                 
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND STILL LOOKS                         
REASONABLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST                
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... GRADUALLY REDUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES                 
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ON MONDAY NIGHT... IT LOOKS LIKE THE               
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT SNOW... EVEN IF ONE MAKES                      
APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS. OUR CURRENT              
FORECAST OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTH HALF OF OKLAHOMA STILL LOOKS              
GOOD. QUIET... BUT SOMEWHAT COOL... WEATHER IS DUE TO BE THE THEME              
OF THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.                                                     
AS SUGGESTED ABOVE... RATHER FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE                  
FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. POPS WERE LOWERED SOME FOR TOMORROW DUE              
TO A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE... SO WE               
EXPECT A LOT OF VIRGA AND VERY LITTLE RAIN UNTIL THE LOWER                      
ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW TEMPERATURE               
FORECASTS WERE ALTERED... THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WAS FOR WARMER                   
READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THICK CLOUDS AND VERY MOIST AIR WILL                 
MINIMIZE DIURNAL CHANGES.                                                       
OUR RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE MOMENTARILY AND WE DO NOT PLAN TO              
EXTEND IT... SINCE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE                
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  35  51  40  45 /   0  20  60  80                              
HOBART OK         35  51  42  46 /  10  30  50  70                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  56  45  49 /  10  30  60  80                              
GAGE OK           31  47  37  45 /  10  20  40  50                              
PONCA CITY OK     31  49  36  44 /   0  10  60  70                              
DURANT OK         40  60  43  48 /   0  10  70  80                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-          
     OKZ006-OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-                   
     OKZ014-OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-                   
     OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-                   
     OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-                   
     OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-                   
     OKZ050.                                                                    
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-          
     TXZ085-TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.                                 
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/25                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
936 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                 
ADJUSTED PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW BASED ON RECENT RADAR                
AND SURFACE DATA AND RUC MODEL RUNS. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR              
SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE SHIFTING                    
TOWARD THE SOUTH. SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIMITED TO                  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LOWLANDS TO GET UP TO ABOUT AN                
INCH. MOUNTAINS CAN POSSIBLY STILL GET 2 TO 4 INCHES.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 310 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                          
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED PCPN/CLOUDINESS ARE APPROACHING                
FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF PCPN             
SHIELD AS LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. NAM40 TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS             
INDICATE BEST LIFT AND SNOW POTENTIAL FOR KZZV 04Z-09Z FRI, KMGW                
07Z-11Z, KPIT 09Z-12Z AND TUCKER CTY WV 06Z-14Z WITH ADDED                      
OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES. ENSEMBLE SREF PLUME FORECASTS CONSISTENT IN              
KEEPING ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IN KPIT AREA, LESS AMTS NORTH OF KPIT             
AND HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF KPIT. OF COURSE SOME SOLUTIONS ARE ZERO             
FOR THE PITTSBURGH AREA. WWD CHOSE A COMPROMISE SOLUTION WITH THE               
1-2 INCH LINE AS FAR NORTH AS KPIT AND AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OVER                 
TUCKER COUNTY WV. AT ANY RATE DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU SELECT               
YOU CAN PRETTY MUCH FIND A SOLUTION THAT YOU CAN LIVE WITH. WE                  
DECIDED THE WWD SOLUTION WAS A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. THE OVERRIDING            
FACTOR IS THAT THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM. TO SUM IT UP WE ARE                
GOING WITH A SNOW ADVISORY FOR TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES WV AND               
GARRETT COUNTY MD FROM 1AM-10AM FRIDAY.                                         
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                       
AS HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND                     
EXITING STORM...WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AND FLOW MORE                       
CYCLONIC. CLOUDS INCREASE SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES                   
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND IN MOUNTAINS. SOME                   
CLEARING AS FLOW RELAXES ON SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY                    
MONDAY WITH RIDGE OVER UPPER OHIO VALLEY. GFS MUCH STRONGER THAN                
ECMWF WITH STORM MOVING INTO REGION TUESDAY AND PULLS WARM AIR                  
FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF. CRITICAL THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW 1300                
METERS ON GFS SO WILL GO WITH SNOW FOR NOW. COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC               
FLOW SHOULD KEEP CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS IN AREA THROUGH DAY 7.                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA A GENERAL LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS              
AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES TO OUR                
SOUTH. FROM KPIT-KZZV AND SOUTH VFR CIGS/VSBYS TIL LATER THIS                   
EVENING/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY THEN CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO               
MVFR WITH IFR AREAS IN SNOW AND FOG. FOR KDUJ AND KFKL VFR CONDS TIL            
08Z. AFT 08Z SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN BR. CONDS IMPROVE             
TO VFR ACROSS THE BOARD AFT 12Z FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AREA RAPIDLY             
MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS 5 TO 15KTS WITH                
DIRECTION VEERING FROM NNE TO NW AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SE.                   
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ001 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.                 
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ023-041 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
805 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING TO RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT. FRONT HAS                   
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING. ABOVE THE SURFACE                     
FRONT...AREA OF ACCAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT. TCU                     
DEVELOPED RIGHT AT SUNSET ALONG THIS MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND RADAR               
ECHOES WERE NOTED. THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT IS A GOOD                  
INDICATION OF THE GOOD INSTABILITY DERIVED FROM THE ELEVATED                    
PARCELS. MUCAPES FROM THE RUC CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG                
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWEST                     
OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO                           
ISENTROPICALLY LIFT PARCELS ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.                    
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD                 
LAYER...HOWEVER ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG WITH                    
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY HEAVIER RAINS IN THE MOST                 
INTENSE CONVECTION.                                                             
AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY AND WILL ONLY BE TWEAKING THE               
POPS AT THIS TIME.                                                              
BRAZZELL                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 520 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT                    
TERMINAL KABI THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE                      
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AT BOTH KABI AND KSJT WINDS WILL                   
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 11Z/17 WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 317 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR             
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CENTRAL CWA NORTH           
.ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST GFS. THE FRONT SHOULD                 
STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG              
SOUTHERN PERIFERY OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS                
DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS DISTURBANCES TRACK                       
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A              
DEVELOPING LLJ PUSHES GULF MOISTURE OVER THE BOUNDARY...WILL SEE                
AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING               
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN EDGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE                       
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL                 
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST               
OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO EXTENT AND              
SEVERITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT                
DRYLINE PASSAGE WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE                
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE                   
DRYLINE/FRONT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AREA AND MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO              
THE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT IS PROGD TO BE OVER                  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAPID DRYING FROM               
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA.                                                      
THE PREVIOUS GFS HAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO CENTRAL                         
TEXAS ON FRIDAY...LATEST RUN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL                
STATES WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC...WILL LEAVE THE              
EXTENDED DRY.                                                                   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/27                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
952 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE IN/KY              
BORDER. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E THROUGH SRN VA...THOUGH B/C OF THE               
LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...THERE IS NOT MUCH                 
DISPARITY IN TEMPS N-S OF THIS FRONT.                                           
DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DEEPER              
LAYERED CLOUD COVER N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT              
WILL BRUSH OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES (ESP MD ERN SHORE BORDERING DE)...              
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND RUC PROJECTIONS. THIS AS THE WEAK SFC            
LOW MOVES E/ESE TO THE VA/NC COASTAL BORDER AROUND 12Z. RUC MODEL               
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS                  
(BELOW 8-10KFT) ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING            
OVER THE FAR NRN AREAS WHERE A SLIGHTLY MORE FVRBL MOISTURE PROFILE             
EXTENDS DOWN TO 850 MB OR AROUND 4-5 KFT. STILL...EVEN IN THESE                 
AREAS (INCLUDING SBY)...AIRMASS BELOW 850 MB REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE            
THROUGH 12Z.                                                                    
IN LIGHT OF THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 30-40% POPS AT MOST ACROSS            
THE NRN PTNS OF THE FCST AREA...20% OR LESS SOUTH (SPRINKLES AT                 
MOST). WILL ALSO LEAVE IN MENTION OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE              
FAR NRN PTN...WHERE WET BULB 0C HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AOB                
1KFT. REGARDLESS...THE LIGHT INTENSITY OF PRECIP WILL LIMIT THE EVAP            
COOLING POTENTIAL IN THE BNDRY LAYER...SO WOULD MORE LIKELY SEE A               
SCENARIO WITH MORE RAIN VS. SNOW...OR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHT                 
SLEET.                                                                          
FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING (AROUND 10 PM). LITTLE OR NO               
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST.                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 420 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO               
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SW FLOW IN MID LVLS TO OUR               
REGION BY MON NGT. THIS WOULD HELP DRIVE SOME GULF MSTR INTO THE                
REGION...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME BADLY NEEDED PRECIP (SEE                        
CLIMATE/FIRE WX SECTIONS). GFS/ECMWF SHOW 1ST SFC LOW TRACKING W                
OF THE MTNS WITH SECONDARY LOW ACRS CAROLINAS TUE. GFS IS COLDER                
SOLN AND GIVES MUCH OF THE CWA SNOW. HAVE GNRLY FAVORED A SOLN A                
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR NOW GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...KEEPING             
SNOW N AND W OF RICHMOND WITH JUST COLD RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL                    
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS.                                           
MARINE...                                                                       
GOING WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL AREAS BEGINNING LATE             
FRI MORN. PGRAD TIGHTENS ALONG COAST AS LOW MOVES OFF NORTHERN OBX              
AND DEEPENS BY MIDDAY. MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS FRI EVE THEN                
PICKS UP AGAIN AS CAA SURGE KICKS IN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT.             
MODERATE NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEKEND SO LESS THAN            
IDEAL BOATING CONDS EXPECTED.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUD BASES TNGT AS BAND OF MOISTURE NORTH OF                
WEAK LOW PRES TRACK APPROACHES. MOST TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
VFR EXCEPT PSBL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS (SBY/RIC)                 
CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE/LIGHT PCPN BAND.                                      
FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY RIGHT NOW...BUT WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN                
YSDY. ANY PRECIP OVERNGT/FRI MRNG WILL BE LGT...GNRLY .10 INCHES                
OR LESS. NOT AS DRY FRI AS WIND FLOW NLY INSTEAD OF NW                          
DOWNSLOPING. DRIER AGAIN SAT/SUN BUT WITH COOL TEMPS IN UPR 40S TO              
MID 50S.                                                                        
CLIMATE...ASSUMING NO PRECIP AT RIC THROUGH MIDNIGHT...DRY                      
STRETCH HAS NOW REACHED 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MSRBL PRECIP                
(A FEW DATES THIS MONTH HAVE SEEN A TRACE). THIS IS THE 2ND                     
LONGEST STREAK ON RECORD AT RIC FOR FEB/MAR (LONGEST WAS 26 DAYS                
IN A ROW FEB 3RD THROUGH FEB 28TH 1968).                                        
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658 FROM           
     11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.                                             
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...HURLEY                                                      
REST OF SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/CLIMATE...BROWN                                    
AVIATION/MARINE...HURLEY/CROSSLEY                                               
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
210 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
...A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...                       
.SHORT TERM...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALIGNED WEST TO              
EAST AND ROUGHLY ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE LINE. EXTENSIVE                
CLOUD DECK EXISTS FROM NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB IN THESE AREAS IS VERY              
LOW WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 25 DEGREES JUST OFF                 
THE SURFACE. THIS LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT SHORT TERM                   
GRIDS ARE ON TRACK FOR SILENT POPS. THERE IS SOME SLIGHTLY MOISTER              
AIR OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS SHORTWAVE SINKS                    
SOUTHWARD...A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS.                  
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY EARLY                          
AFTERNOON...SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF                    
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A                       
CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS              
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK.                                                     
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AROUND 06Z                
TONIGHT WHILE THE FLORIDA PORTION IS DELAYED LARGELY UNTIL                      
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS OVER THE GEORGIA                     
PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SIMILAR VALUES TO TONIGHTS OVER THE                    
FLORIDA PORTION. VERY QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL BRING MAX                   
TEMPS FOR SAT TO BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE              
COAST WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN.                                
NEARLY IDEAL ISENTROPIC LIFT CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF              
THE COUNTRY WHILE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDES UP AND OVER COLD             
DOME. WITH TIME...THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD                           
SOUTHEAST...BUT INITIALLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST. GRADUALLY               
FLOW BELOW 500MB BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND CROSS SECTIONS                     
INDICATE MODEST CROSS ISOTHERMAL FLOW. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE              
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 5 UNITS OF ADIABATIC OMEGA ALONG AND NORTH               
OF THE GEORGIA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AXIS LARGELY                  
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER...WILL BLEND HIGHER MAV NUMBERS WITH THE              
MET TO RESULT IN LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR GEORGIA. MY LAST POP                
GRID OF THE SHORT TERM MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH INITIAL LONG TERM              
GRID CREATED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE MONDAY                
POPS AS THEY ARE FOR POSSIBLE MODIFICATION BY DAY SHIFT.                        
.LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS ON MONDAY               
WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH                      
THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-                  
WEEK. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS TO BE IN LINE WITH NEWEST MEX IN                 
WARM SECTOR MONDAY BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NE WINDS INCREASE SAT. STILL LOOKS CLOSE FOR SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND HOIST AN            
ADVISORY FOR THE GA OFFSHORE ZONES. ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE               
SHORT-LIVED...WITH A RETURN EXPECTED BY TUE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY TRICKY FCST FOR TODAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS A              
BIT HIGHER WITH DEW POINT VALUES TODAY. AS A RESULT...ONLY GET RH               
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...ONLY NEED ONE OB WITH 35                   
PERCENT TO COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 MPH. CONCERN IS THAT              
MID-AFTN WIND SURGE ALONG WITH INCREASED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL                 
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME N FL ZONES.             
HOWEVER...BASED ON MY LATEST GRIDS...CAN'T JUSTIFY A WARNING AND                
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH. POTENTIAL FOR A BUST IS THERE...AND DAY SHIFT            
MAY HAVE TO CHANGE COURSE. WILL INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN FWF. WILL               
ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR W FL ZONES FOR SAT AFTN. THANX FOR COORD              
TAE/TBW/MLB!                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  77  48  69  46 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SSI  77  51  66  49 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  53  68  49 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  78  56  68  53 /   0   5   0   0                                           
GNV  80  51  75  49 /   5   0   0   0                                           
OCF  80  52  77  51 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 5 PM SAT FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
     ZONES:  ALACHUA...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...              
     AND SUWANNEE.                                                              
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM SAT FOR THE                    
         FOLLOWING ZONES:  ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH 20 TO             
         60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...DEESE                                                                  
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
247 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
STRATUS IS SLOWLY OOZING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CWA THIS MORNING                  
WHILE ROCKY MOUNTAIN INDUCED CIRRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE              
AREA. THE MID LEVEL FRONT WAS SOUTH OF KS ON THE 00Z ANALYSIS AND               
THIS MAY BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND                     
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST AS IT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM                 
FRONT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE SURFACE COLD DOME WILL                 
BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING                   
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER EAST YOU GO.                   
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH THE CLOUD COVER...I.E. HOW FAR WEST             
DOES THE STRATUS MAKE IT AND WHEN WILL IT DISSIPATE AND WHAT                    
AFFECT WILL THE CIRRUS HAVE. WILL BASE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE LATEST              
RUC FORECASTS WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE. A STRONG                  
SOUTHEAST BREEZE TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP               
LOWS UP. WHATEVER WARMING WE DO ON SATURDAY WILL BE PURELY BY WARM              
AND MOIST ADVECTION AS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING THE SUN IS SMALL.               
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN MILDER WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND                   
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.                                                               
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT COMPARED TO THE GFS ON UPCOMING                
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  GFS STILL MUCH FASTER BRINGING UPPER            
SYSTEM THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE ECMWF.  GFS ALSO DOES NOT                
BRING A CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CLOSES OFF THE SYSTEM OVER            
SERN KS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  GFS SEEMS A LITTLE TOO SLOW CUTTING OFF              
THE LOW GIVEN AMOUNT OF ENERGY COMING AROUND BASE OF TROUGH AS IT               
CROSSES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SLOWER ECMWF SEEMS MORE                        
REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE KICKER DOES NOT MAKE IT TO THE WEST               
COAST UNTIL 00Z-12Z TUE.  THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO               
THE CWA SUNDAY.  MODELS ALSO BRINGING IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO            
SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME                  
BETTER HEATING AND MORE INSTABILITY...SO PUT IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS              
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN ZONES.  UPPER LOW AND                
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER SW KS EARLY MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR              
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.  CHANGED PRECIP OVER TO ALL              
SNOW NORTHERN HALF OF CWA BY 12Z MONDAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF CWA              
BY 18Z MON.  IF ECMWF IS CLOSE TO BEING RIGHT...COULD HAVE NEAR                 
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                   
RAISED POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.                
SHOULD SEE SYSTEM GETTING KICKED OUT BY NEXT SYSTEM ENTERING INTO               
THE WEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS AREA BY                   
TUESDAY MORNING.  COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS KS BY                 
TUESDAY MORNING...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
DAYS TO BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS...SO ONLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE               
LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WEDNESDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  53  35  45  39 /  10   0  40  40                                           
GCK  53  35  46  39 /   0   0  40  40                                           
EHA  57  36  48  40 /  10   0  30  30                                           
LBL  55  36  47  40 /  10   0  30  30                                           
HYS  47  33  43  36 /   0  20  60  60                                           
P28  52  37  46  40 /  10  30  60  60                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN27/28                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
330 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN NC AT 12Z THIS MORNING             
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST BY 15Z. RADAR TRENDS AND               
00Z NAM AND 00Z RUC SUPPORT ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL            
VA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH LIGHT QPF AND WEAKENING BAND OF                     
PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM NORTHERN WV/NORTHWESTERN MD INTO NORTHERN             
VA AND NORTH CENTRAL MD. THESE TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS              
POINT TOWARD MARGINAL SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS...WHERE WET BULB              
EFFECT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OR MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW             
TO ALL SNOW. 07Z TEMPERATURES IN ALL LOW ELEVATION SITES OF THE CWA             
IN THE 40S WITH QUITE A FEW OBS IN THE HIGH 40S SUGGEST THAT IT MAY             
TAKE LONGER TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. WILL REMOVE WASHINGTON AND               
FREDERICK COUNTIES IN MD...MORGAN...BERKELEY...AND JEFFERSON                    
COUNTIES IN WV...AND FREDERICK...CLARK AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN VA               
FROM THE SNOW ADVISORY...AS BEST POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING HAS SHIFTED              
SOUTH WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL            
BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE            
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WEAK TO MODERATE CAA WILL             
KEEP TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 F BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER                 
50S...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY LATE                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIPRES NOSES IN FM CNDA TNGT...AND HOLDS THRU                 
WKND. AMS DRY THRUT COLUMN...W/ SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS...AND H10-5             
RH AOB 30 PCT. JUST ABT THE ONLY CONSIDERATION WL BE THE WND SAT...             
AS H8-5 LOW WL KEEP A DECENT GRADIENT ACRS AREA. H8 CAA AND SHEARED             
H5 VORT EMBEDDED IN FLOW WL ASSIST IN MIXING WNDS TO SFC. MOMENTUM              
TRANSFER SUGGESTING GUSTS 20-30 KT. BY SUN...HIPRES WL BE NEAR ENUF             
SO THAT WNDS WL BE LGTR. MOS TEMPS NOT FAR APART...AND BLEND GNLY               
TAKEN.                                                                          
SFC LOPRES DVLPG IN SRN CONUS MON MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS IT            
TOSSES MSTR TWD CWFA MON AFTN-TUE MRNG. 12Z GFS FASTER AT F84 AND               
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THRAFTR COMPARED TO NAM. SFC HIGH WL BE ABLE              
TO WARD OFF INITIAL SURGE...BUT FOR HOW LONG? UNLIKE CRRNT SYSTM...             
THIS ONE WL HV PLENTY OF MSTR AVBL THX TO GLFMEX AND COOL AIR WL BE             
IN PLACE...SO PTYPE WL BE AN ISSUE. WL HOLD W/ CRRNT SET OF GRIDS...            
TACKLING ONE STORM AT A TIME.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WEAK LOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NC THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT                   
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...BUT             
DESPITE PRECIPITATION EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREDOMINATE. BEST            
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW FROM 10Z-12Z AT            
MRB/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN AND 10Z-13Z AT CHO. LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF               
THE NC COAST AFTER 12Z...AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION              
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...             
EXCEPT AT CHO WHERE VFR WILL BEGIN AT OR ABOUT 13Z.                             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NLY FLOW AOB 10 KT ACRS WATERS TDA. TNGT...CAA AND PVA WL COMBINE TO            
PROVIDE BRZY CONDS ACRS THE WATERS...WHERE MIXING SHUD BE GOOD THX              
TO LAPSE RATES. BASED UPON MOMENTUM TRANSFER FM HRLY SNDGS...CUD SEE            
SCA TYPE WNDS SAT...FM ELY MRNG THRU EVE. HIPRES BLDG ACRS WATERS               
WL ENSURE CONDS ARENT PROLONGED BYD THAT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MDZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.                               
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAZ021-025>027-029-030 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.               
WV...SNOW ADVISORY FOR WVZ048>050-054-055 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.                   
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM         
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMITH                                                     
LONG TERM/MARINE...HTS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
100 AM EST THU MAR 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MIXED RAIN AND                
SNOW IS DEPARTING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER             
AIR ARE BUILDING IN. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAPID CLEARING...BIT              
SATELLITE INDICATES OTHERWISE SO WENT WITH MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH                
ABOUT 18Z. REST OF FORECAST VFR.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
RAIN WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED                 
THUNDER MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE UPDATED FOR THIS IN              
THE WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND DAYTON ZONE GROUPS.                                   
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST...WILL LIKELY UPDATE AGAIN IN THE                  
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC LOW MOVES CLOSER AND PCPN COVERAGE CHANGES.               
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 245 PM EST THU MAR 16 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...                                  
DECENT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO BUT WITH DRY            
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS PCPN IS NOT REACHING THE                
GROUND (NOT SURE IF THE .12 REPORTED ON THE AOH OB THIS PAST HOUR               
WAS REAL). 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE              
TRACK OF THE LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SPREADING PCPN DOWN ACROSS AREA            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED ABOUT LARGE DRY SLOT               
ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON               
THIS...KEEPING MUCH OF SOUTHWEST FA MAINLY DRY TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC              
LIFT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON THE 290K-295 K SURFACES BETWEEN NOW             
AND 03Z AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN                
INDIANA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN BEGIN TO FILL IN A LITTLE             
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE THINGS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR.              
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL STILL ALLOW FOR PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWN INTO              
FA THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WE COULD END UP WITH A FAIRLY SHARP               
SOUTHERN EDGE. WILL THEREFORE...ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE             
SOUTHWEST.                                                                      
MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OFF FROM                
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON BLEND OF FORECAST            
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM...EXPECT PCPN TO MIX WITH AND THEN               
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN             
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR                    
SOUTH...ANY CHANGEOVER WOULD BE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.                 
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROBLEMATIC AS DRY AIR IN PLACE AND                  
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON ANY                 
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COUNTERED BY THE FACT THAT                
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD AND POSSIBILITY            
FOR SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE                   
CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR THE EARLIEST...WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES               
WITH UP TO AN INCH DOWN TO ABOUT I-70. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...CHANGE            
OVER SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.                          
WILL HANG ON TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRIDAY WITH            
LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CAA. WILL ALSO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE             
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE THEN            
BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR QUIET WEATHER             
INTO THE WEEKEND.                                                               
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM EARLY             
NEXT WEEK.  THIS SUPPORTS YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN WHICH WAS SLOWER WITH              
THE ONSET OF PCPN.  THEREFORE DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN UNTIL MONDAY            
NIGHT.                                                                          
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.  06Z RUN HAS THE              
LOW IN CNTRL KY AT 12Z TUE...12Z GFS NOW HAS IT IN ERN TN. WENT  A              
BLEND OF 06Z/12Z GFS RUNS...SO WAS COOLER THAN THE 00Z MEX FOR HIGHS            
TUE. THE BLEND OF THE THICKNESSES PUTS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AROUND THE            
OHIO RIVER FOR TUE...BUT THEREFORE SHOULD BE A CHANGE OVER TO ALL               
SNOW ON THE BACKEDGE.                                                           
LOW PULLS OF THE EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH COLD NW                        
FLOW...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOME LAKE EFFECT               
SHOWERS WED AND THU.                                                            
OTHER THAN BEING COOLER WITH TUE MAXS...WENT CLOSE TO MEX NUMBERS.              
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
348 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO WITH AN NPW FOR DENSE FOG FOR THE COASTAL                
COUNTIES. VSBYS DOWN TO 1/4 MILE AT SEVERAL SITES. FOG SHOULD ERODE             
BETWEEN 14-15Z WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.                                        
AT 08Z...A VERY SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EAST TEXAS               
FROM JASPER TO CALDWELL TO JUNCTION. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL                     
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM AND                      
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED TODAY...STILL               
FEEL THE WARM START WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.                
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL              
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 14Z FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE              
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE                
AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY              
NIGHT OVER THE NORTH. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...IT LOOKED LIKE SE TX                
WOULD RECEIVE SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS                  
TIME...SIGNIFICANT RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT                    
FAVORS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF SE TX SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE NORTH. THE LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE                
SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL AREAWIDE AND                
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH OFFER ADDITIONAL                       
INSOLATION.                                                                     
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE LOW LEVEL JET              
WILL STRENGTHEN AND A 110 KT SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA.                  
THE JET WILL SPLIT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A PACIFIC                      
FRONT/DRY LINE WILL APPROACH CLL AROUND 08Z AND THE COAST AROUND                
12Z. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE                          
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND                   
8.0...CAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000...HELICITIES BETWEEN 200 AND 400                  
AND LI'S BETWEEN -4 AND -8. ALL THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE              
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY THUS LIMITING RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ONE CAVEAT...                    
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE SOUTH MUST ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS                
THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE.                                                        
DEW POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY LINE/FRONT AND              
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE FROM THE WEST. AS A                        
CONSEQUENCE...TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM. TUES/WED LOOK DRY. A                
DECENT DIURNAL RANGE BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS. ANOTHER                 
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS                  
COAST. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.              
43                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE               
COAST AND AFFECT BOTH GLS AND LBX THROUGH SUNRISE. THE VERY SLOW                
MOVING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WERE THE CULPRITS.            
THE LATEST RUC HANGS THE FRONT UP A BIT EARLY...BUT THEN MOVES IT               
THROUGH TO THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  THE ETA12 IS A BIT FASTER            
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. CAN EXPECT VFR CEILINGS                
ABOVE 4000 FEET AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES.  HOWEVER...IF THE                
FRONT WAFFLES A BIT NORTHWARD THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW               
STRATUS MAY OCCUR AT HOU AND EVEN IAH FOR A BIT THROUGH 13 OR 15Z.              
THE NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WINDS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS                  
AFTERNOON WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARD THE 15 KNOT RANGE AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH.                                                                  
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE A BIT              
WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WINDS THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT IN THE EARLIER              
PACKAGES.                                                                       
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  58  65  65  75 /  10  40  50  60  60             
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  59  70  68  78 /  20  30  40  40  30             
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  64  70  70  73 /  20  30  50  50  20             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM               
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                        
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                 
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
342 AM CST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AT 08Z...A VERY SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS EAST TEXAS               
FROM JASPER TO CALDWELL TO JUNCTION. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL                     
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE                  
COUNTY WARNING AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM AND                      
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE RISE IS EXPECTED TODAY...STILL               
FEEL THE WARM START WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.                
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN A FEW SPOTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL              
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH 14Z FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE              
FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH ON SATURDAY AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE                
AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SATURDAY              
NIGHT OVER THE NORTH. EARLIER IN THE WEEK...IT LOOKED LIKE SE TX                
WOULD RECEIVE SOME GENEROUS RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS                  
TIME...SIGNIFICANT RAIN LOOKS LESS LIKELY. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT                    
FAVORS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PART OF SE TX SATURDAY NIGHT AND                    
SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE NORTH. THE LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL              
CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE                
SOUTH. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL AREAWIDE AND                
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTH OFFER ADDITIONAL                       
INSOLATION.                                                                     
THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM                  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT. THE LOW LEVEL JET              
WILL STRENGTHEN AND A 110 KT SPEED MAX WILL APPROACH THE AREA.                  
THE JET WILL SPLIT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE A PACIFIC                      
FRONT/DRY LINE WILL APPROACH CLL AROUND 08Z AND THE COAST AROUND                
12Z. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE                          
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND                   
8.0...CAPES BETWEEN 2000-3000...HELICITIES BETWEEN 200 AND 400                  
AND LI'S BETWEEN -4 AND -8. ALL THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PLACE              
FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL                
MOVE QUICKLY THUS LIMITING RAINFALL POTENTIAL. ONE CAVEAT...                    
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE SOUTH MUST ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS                
THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE.                                                        
DEW POINTS WILL DROP QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY LINE/FRONT AND              
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE FROM THE WEST. AS A                        
CONSEQUENCE...TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE WARM. TUES/WED LOOK DRY. A                
DECENT DIURNAL RANGE BOTH DAYS DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS. ANOTHER                 
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS                  
COAST. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.              
43                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE               
COAST AND AFFECT BOTH GLS AND LBX THROUGH SUNRISE. THE VERY SLOW                
MOVING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL TROUGH WERE THE CULPRITS.            
THE LATEST RUC HANGS THE FRONT UP A BIT EARLY...BUT THEN MOVES IT               
THROUGH TO THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.  THE ETA12 IS A BIT FASTER            
WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED. CAN EXPECT VFR CEILINGS                
ABOVE 4000 FEET AT THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES.  HOWEVER...IF THE                
FRONT WAFFLES A BIT NORTHWARD THEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR FOG AND LOW               
STRATUS MAY OCCUR AT HOU AND EVEN IAH FOR A BIT THROUGH 13 OR 15Z.              
THE NEXT PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WINDS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS                  
AFTERNOON WILL PICK UP A BIT TOWARD THE 15 KNOT RANGE AS THE FRONT              
MOVES THROUGH.                                                                  
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
SCEC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS WERE A BIT              
WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE WINDS THAN WHAT WAS PRESENT IN THE EARLIER              
PACKAGES.                                                                       
PL-40                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  58  65  65  75 /  10  40  50  60  60             
HOUSTON (IAH)              73  59  70  68  78 /  20  30  40  40  30             
GALVESTON (GLS)            71  64  70  70  73 /  20  30  50  50  20             
&&                                                                              
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM               
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE                
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM                        
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS                  
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM                 
     HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1140 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FRONT RETURNING AS WARM FRONT...JUST NORTH OF DEL RIO...                        
KERRVILLE... AUSTIN LINE AT 5Z. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE                   
INSTABILITY AROUND 6000 AGL WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND                  
SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTH. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KSJT TONIGHT...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF DUE TO LOW                
PROBABILITY.                                                                    
NAM AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND                     
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT KEEP LOW LEVELS DRY UNTIL                   
AFTER 00Z WHEN LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE AND CIGS LOWER TO                  
MVFR. MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER TAF PERIOD OF 6Z FOR CIGS TO LOWER                   
INTO MVFR CATEGORY FOR KABI. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED                            
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER 00Z                
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS. BECAUSE LOW LEVELS ARE               
DRY...COULD SEE SOME VERY GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF ANY STORMS                 
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 805 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006)                         
UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING TO RAISE POPS OVERNIGHT. FRONT HAS                    
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF I-10 THIS EVENING. ABOVE THE SURFACE                     
FRONT...AREA OF ACCAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 850 MB FRONT. TCU                     
DEVELOPED RIGHT AT SUNSET ALONG THIS MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND RADAR               
ECHOES WERE NOTED. THESE HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED...BUT IS A GOOD                  
INDICATION OF THE GOOD INSTABILITY DERIVED FROM THE ELEVATED                    
PARCELS. MUCAPES FROM THE RUC CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 1500 J/KG                
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS AREA IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWEST                     
OVERNIGHT AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO                           
ISENTROPICALLY LIFT PARCELS ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.                    
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD                 
LAYER...HOWEVER ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BECOME STRONG WITH                    
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND EVENTUALLY HEAVIER RAINS IN THE MOST                 
INTENSE CONVECTION.                                                             
AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK OKAY AND WILL ONLY BE TWEAKING THE               
POPS AT THIS TIME.                                                              
BRAZZELL                                                                        
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 520 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT                    
TERMINAL KABI THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE                      
EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. AT BOTH KABI AND KSJT WINDS WILL                   
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 11Z/17 WINDS WILL                    
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS.                                                      
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 317 PM CST THU MAR 16 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH TO THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR             
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS FROM THE CENTRAL CWA NORTH           
ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER THAN THE LATEST GFS. THE FRONT SHOULD                  
STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG              
SOUTHERN PERIFERY OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS                
DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS DISTURBANCES TRACK                       
NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A              
DEVELOPING LLJ PUSHES GULF MOISTURE OVER THE BOUNDARY...WILL SEE                
AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING               
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.                                       
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN EDGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE                       
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL                 
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST               
OF THE CWA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL BE PUSHED EAST BY THE                 
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO EXTENT AND              
SEVERITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS ON SUNDAY. IT APPEARS NOW THAT                
DRYLINE PASSAGE WILL BE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH THE                
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE                   
DRYLINE/FRONT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AREA AND MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO              
THE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT IS PROGD TO BE OVER                  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH RAPID DRYING FROM               
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA.                                                      
THE PREVIOUS GFS HAD AN UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO CENTRAL                         
TEXAS ON FRIDAY...LATEST RUN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL                
STATES WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC...WILL LEAVE THE              
EXTENDED DRY.                                                                   
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
NONE.                                                                           
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/99/04                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1010 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE 13 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM ATLANTA GA TO               
LAKE CHARLES LA...APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST            
AREA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS            
OUR FLORIDA ZONES...AS IS A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND. VAPOR IMAGERY AND               
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED US            
BY AND WE ARE NOW UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS            
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASING...AND WE SUSPECT THAT WITH THE DELAY             
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TILL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE INCREASING             
INSOLATION OUR TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE                    
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE                
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE LATEST RUC HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE OF THE                 
SURFACE DEWPOINT TROUGH OVER OUR AREA...AND THIS WAS THE SAME AREA              
THAT REALLY DRIED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS INTENSE MIXING                      
DEVELOPED. WE USED THE RUC DEWPOINT FORECAST...AND WITH THE SLIGHTLY            
WARMER TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOW FORECASTING ABOUT 4 HOURS OF RELATIVE            
HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES. IF              
WE SEE A DRAMATIC DECLINE IN DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY              
HAVE TO ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE               
MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT OUR NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS (DHN ABY              
AND PFN) SHORTLY AS CLEARING SKIES ARE ON THE HORIZON. MVFR                     
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT TLH AND VLD UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THERE            
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS TLH AND VLD AROUND 17Z.             
ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH            
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING SATURDAY NOON-7 PM ALL AREAS.                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GODSEY                                                               
REST OF DISCUSSION...FOURNIER                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
950 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
DRY COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL GA PUSHING SE ACOMMPANIED BY SCATTERED              
CLOUDS. FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY             
EVENING SHIFTING WEST WINDS TO NW. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL              
LIFT TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80.                                                 
.MARINE...WESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.            
LIGHT CHOP OVER INLAND WATERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY BECOME A MODERATE              
CHOP AS WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
.FIRE...WILL LIKELY SEE MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER NE FL THIS            
AFTERNOON. MARGINAL RH DURATION AND/OR WIND CRITERIA BOTH POSSIBLE.             
12Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR IN 950 TO 850MB LAYER AND JAX                   
SURFACE DEWPOINT HAS NOW FALLEN TO 45 AS VERTICAL MIXING COMMENCES.             
WILL ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NE FL THIS AFTERNOON.                           
&&                                                                              
MZ/JH                                                                           
......PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......                                                 
.SHORT TERM...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALIGNED WEST TO              
EAST AND ROUGHLY ALONG THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA STATE LINE. EXTENSIVE                
CLOUD DECK EXISTS FROM NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB IN THESE AREAS IS VERY              
LOW WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 25 DEGREES JUST OFF THE             
SURFACE. THIS LEADS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT SHORT TERM GRIDS ARE             
ON TRACK FOR SILENT POPS. THERE IS SOME SLIGHTLY MOISTER AIR OVER               
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND AS SHORTWAVE SINKS SOUTHWARD...A               
FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS.                                
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY EARLY                          
AFTERNOON...SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF                    
SURFACE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A                       
CONTINUATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE WITH SOUTHERN SECTIONS              
NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK.                                                     
COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AROUND 06Z                
TONIGHT WHILE THE FLORIDA PORTION IS DELAYED LARGELY UNTIL                      
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS OVER THE GEORGIA                     
PORTION FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SIMILAR VALUES TO TONIGHTS OVER THE                    
FLORIDA PORTION. VERY QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL BRING MAX                   
TEMPS FOR SAT TO BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE              
COAST WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN.                                
NEARLY IDEAL ISENTROPIC LIFT CONDITIONS TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL              
PLAINS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF              
THE COUNTRY WHILE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RIDES UP AND OVER COLD             
DOME. WITH TIME...THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD                           
SOUTHEAST...BUT INITIALLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST. GRADUALLY               
FLOW BELOW 500MB BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...AND CROSS SECTIONS                     
INDICATE MODEST CROSS ISOTHERMAL FLOW. GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE              
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH 5 UNITS OF ADIABATIC OMEGA ALONG AND NORTH               
OF THE GEORGIA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH AXIS LARGELY                  
NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER...WILL BLEND HIGHER MAV NUMBERS WITH THE              
MET TO RESULT IN LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR GEORGIA. MY LAST POP                
GRID OF THE SHORT TERM MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH INITIAL LONG TERM              
GRID CREATED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE MONDAY                
POPS AS THEY ARE FOR POSSIBLE MODIFICATION BY DAY SHIFT.                        
.LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER ARKANSAS ON MONDAY               
WITH WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH                      
THROUGH ON TUESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-                  
WEEK. HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS TO BE IN LINE WITH NEWEST MEX IN                 
WARM SECTOR MONDAY BUT NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NE WINDS INCREASE SAT. STILL LOOKS CLOSE FOR SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND WILL ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND HOIST AN            
ADVISORY FOR THE GA OFFSHORE ZONES. ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE               
SHORT-LIVED...WITH A RETURN EXPECTED BY TUE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...VERY TRICKY FCST FOR TODAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM MOS A              
BIT HIGHER WITH DEW POINT VALUES TODAY. AS A RESULT...ONLY GET RH               
VALUES INTO THE UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...ONLY NEED ONE OB WITH 35                   
PERCENT TO COINCIDE WITH SUSTAINED WIND OF 15 MPH. CONCERN IS THAT              
MID-AFTN WIND SURGE ALONG WITH INCREASED DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL                 
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME N FL ZONES.             
HOWEVER...BASED ON MY LATEST GRIDS...CAN'T JUSTIFY A WARNING AND                
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH. POTENTIAL FOR A BUST IS THERE...AND DAY SHIFT            
MAY HAVE TO CHANGE COURSE. WILL INDICATE UNCERTAINTY IN FWF. WILL               
ISSUE A FIRE WX WATCH FOR W FL ZONES FOR SAT AFTN. THANX FOR COORD              
TAE/TBW/MLB!                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  77  48  69  46 /   0   0   0  10                                           
SSI  77  51  66  49 /   0   0   0  10                                           
JAX  79  53  68  49 /   0   0   0   0                                           
SGJ  78  56  68  53 /   0   5   0   0                                           
GNV  80  51  75  49 /   5   0   0   0                                           
OCF  80  52  77  51 /  10   0   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON TO 5 PM SAT FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
     ZONES:  ALACHUA...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...              
     AND SUWANNEE.                                                              
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 5 PM TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING                 
     COUNTIES: HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-                   
     UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-                       
     ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-                                                          
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM SAT FOR THE                    
         FOLLOWING ZONES:  ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH 20 TO             
         60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
515 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                            
BROAD POOL OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT               
THIS MORNING COULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING.  GFS TRYING TO              
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NAM SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE                    
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING JET MAX LEFT REAR QUAD WILL SUPPRESS ANY              
PRECIP CHANCES.  WILL KEEP POPS NIL...BUT WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS AHEAD            
OF FRONT AS IT APPROACHES.  BY 18Z...FRONT WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA            
AND SKIES/DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.               
AFTER FRONT PASSES...WIND GUSTS MAY KICK UP TO 15 KTS.                          
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THE SHORT TERM.  CLOUDS             
WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS NEW SYSTEM FORMS.                   
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                    
CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DEGRADE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ALTHO                     
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET A BIT FASTER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP THAN NAM.  WILL               
LEAN TOWARD GFS FOR PRECIP ONSET.  DEEP LOW DEVELOPS IN CENTRAL                 
PLAINS MONDAY AND BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST OF GA.  FRONT WILL FORM             
SOUTH OF GA AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH MONDAY.  AHEAD OF                          
FRONT...PRECIP AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH WILL BE COMMON AS OVERRUNNING              
SETS UP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.  GFS PULLS WARM FRONT NORTH ON MONDAY               
PUTTING MOST OF GA IN WARM SECTOR AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND                  
PASSES MONDAY NIGHT.  SHOULD SEE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSRA                
NEARLY AREAWIDE.  STOUT IN SITU WEDGE FORMS IN NORTHEAST GA MONDAY              
SO WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE THERE.                                        
ANOTHER MINOR IMPULSE SKIRTS THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AND RAISES POP             
CHANCES SLIGHTLY.  OTHERWISE...LOOKING COOL AND DRY AS MODIFIED                 
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES IN.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WNW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH UPSTREAM RIDGE              
CENTRAL U.S. AND PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEAK               
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH               
FAST MOVING UPPER SHORT WAVE. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH                 
EARLY MORNING...AROUND 14Z...UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA                
FROM THE NW...THEN EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TAF VALID               
PERIOD. AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE CONSIDERABLY IN THE                
SUN-MON PERIOD AS COLD WEDGE EVOLVES FROM THE NE AND OVERRUNNING                
WITH UPSTREAM STRONG SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON.                                                            
CEILINGS...                                                                     
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC            
CIGS OF 015-025...MOSTLY WESTERN SECTIONS. UPSLOPE HAS ENHANCED                 
CLOUD COVER ALONG WESTERN BORDER AND INTO AL...WITH DOWNSLOPE                   
HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE. RUC/NAM MODELS SHOW                
THAT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ERODE IN THE 14-16Z                 
PERIOD FROM THE EAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SCT 14Z-16Z ACROSS            
THE WEST. EASTERN SECTIONS LITTLE TO NO CIGS...MAINLY SCT CONDITIONS            
FOR AHN. AFT 15Z...WOULD EXPECT ALL AREAS TO HAVE VFR CIGS. SOME                
SCT250 MAY CREEP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST.                         
VISIBILITY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10 DEGREES...WINDS                       
5-10KTS...AND CLOUD COVER PREVENTING ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS                   
MORNING. AIR MASS WILL DRY BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO DO NOT FORESEE            
ANY FOG OR VISIBILITY PROBLEMS THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD...NOT              
EVEN FOR MCN.                                                                   
WX...NONE THROUGH THIS TAF VALID PERIOD.                                        
WINDS...W 5-10KTS EARLY...WILL BECOME NW 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO                 
20KTS AFT 15Z...THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFT 00Z.                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         68  41  60  41 /   0   0   5  40                                
ATHENS          74  41  63  41 /   0   0   0  20                                
GAINESVILLE     67  40  60  40 /   0   0   0  30                                
ROME            67  40  60  43 /   5   0   5  40                                
COLUMBUS        73  46  65  47 /   0   0  10  40                                
MACON           72  41  67  44 /   0   0   5  30                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
27/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
927 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
WELL...THE CRUX OF THE MORNINGS FORECAST IS THE SECONDARY SURGE                 
OF LOW CLOUDS. THERE ARE 2 BANDS OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS.  THE             
LARGEST ONE'S BACK EDGE STRETCHES FROM DEC-SRN IND-NRN CVG.                     
THE SECONDARY LOW CLOUD BAND STRETCHES ACROSS THE NRN BUCKEYE                   
STATE. THE FIRST LINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 34 KTS.  THE ILX                
SOUNDING CAPTURES THIS FEATURE WELL WITH SFC TO 800 MB 0-3 DEGREE               
TD SPREADS AND BACKING WINDS FROM BOUNDARY LAYER TO H7.                         
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWING LOW CLOUDS HOLDING IN SDF AND LEX THROUGH              
18Z AND LIFTING BY 21Z.                                                         
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS               
SHOW NICE TRANSITION OF THE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE CWA.  RUC                    
SOUNDING AS WELL AS ILX AND OHX SOUNDING SHOWING HIGHS IN THE 47                
RANGE ALONG I 64 AND AROUND 50 NEAR THE TN STATE LINE.  ALL IN ALL              
FORECAST HUMMING ALONG NICELY.                                                  
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)                                                            
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND COLD                       
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
ON THE WEATHER MAP THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING THROUGH THE             
WESTERN PORTION OF VIRGINIA WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.            
COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SO              
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS MORNING INTO THE 40S AND                  
GENERALLY HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS              
OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE                
CWFA AROUND 10Z AND OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING. HAVE NOTICED            
A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS REPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR              
DRIZZLE AT 07Z. WE FEEL THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE              
IT ARRIVES IN OUR CWFA HOWEVER IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER AN UPDATE TO                
MENTION DRIZZLE MAY BE NEEDED.                                                  
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE             
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S BY                    
SATURDAY MORNING... SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE                  
MIDDLE OF MARCH. --JA                                                           
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
DAYS 2-3 (SATURDAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)...                                           
COOLER AND DRY PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP THIS TIME PERIOD. AXIS OF HIGH               
PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM OUR NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP                  
CONDITIONS DRY FOR SAT-SUN. RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT              
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE            
LIGHT AND FROM THE NNE SAT...SLOWLY VEERING AROUND TO THE E ON SUN              
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW. MAJORITY OF THE CWA              
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR SW CWA BY SUNDAY AS HIGH                  
CLOUDS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO SRN KY FROM APPROACHING STORM                   
SYSTEM.                                                                         
TEMPS WILL ROUGHLY BE 6-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND FOR            
HIGHS AND LOWS. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOW                 
50S...AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING                
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S.                                                    
DAYS 4-7 DISCUSSION (MONDAY - THURSDAY)...                                      
IN THIS PERIOD...A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE              
FOCUS FOR WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...STRONG                
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TEXAS                   
PANHANDLE REGION AND DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE            
WILL RIDE NORTHWARD ALONG A STRONG 850MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH WARM               
AIR ADVECTION...AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED              
UPPER JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE LOW-LEVEL CONV AND UPPER-LEVEL             
DIV WILL HELP GENERATE SHWRS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS AS WELL AS EARLY              
AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SW CWA. WITH THIS LOW-LEVEL                  
INFLUX OF WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME NICE                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY            
ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. WITH GOOD DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR                       
EXPECTED...COULD EASILY SEE SOME ELEVATED HAILERS NORTH OF THIS WARM            
FRONT ON MONDAY. THEREFORE WILL INSERT TSTORMS INTO GRIDS FOR                   
MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FURTHER MODEL TRENDS AND SPC GUIDANCE              
TO SEE IF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS EXPECTED ELEVATED                
CONVECTION.                                                                     
NOT SURE AT THIS POINT WHERE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP...BUT SOUTHERN              
KY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE TO GET INTO WARM SECTOR. MODELS PROG              
MID 50 DEWPOINTS REACHING SRN KY MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.            
HOWEVER I THINK MOST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF MY CWA AS THE             
TRACK OF THE LOW HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PAST FEW              
MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP TSTORM WORDING IN THROUGH MONDAY                
EVENING ACROSS SRN KY. TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM             
WOULD BE SEVERE...BUT GIVEN THAT THE 500MB LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY               
TILTED AS THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE                    
ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE WOULD LIKELY BE TN AND SOUTHWARD.                  
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURE.                                                    
BEHIND THIS COLD FROPA...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DROP BY TUESDAY             
MORNING CONSIDERABLY. GFS SHOWS A LOT OF QPF BEHIND THIS                        
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF IT REMAINS TO THE NORTH. COULD SEE SOME               
SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NERN               
CWA...BUT AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW HOPING            
FOR SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS. HPC SEEMED TO LIKE THE EUROPEAN             
MODEL OVER THE GFS...WHICH HAS A MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND WOULD BE               
POSSIBLY TOO WARM FOR SNOW. AGAIN...WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.                     
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEAVING WED AND THURS MOST                
LIKELY DRY. AGAIN...EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR WED AND                       
THURS...ROUGHLY HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S.                                     
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.KY...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDG/JA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
558 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WELL...GFS AND NAM HV BEEN INTERNALLY CONSISTENT BUT DID NOT AGREE              
W/ EACH OTHER PAST SVRL RUNS.  MUST SAY THE CRRNT RADAR MOSAIC LOOKS            
A LOT LIKE THE 06Z NAM AND ITS PARALLEL RUN. A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS              
WRN/NRN MD ATTM IN RGN OF GOOD H8-5 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. OTRW...            
LOPRES OVR NC MVG EWD HAS SHUNTED THE REST OF THE PCPN FM SE VA EWD.            
N/NE FLOW ACRS CWFA NOT HELPING...AS ITS ADVECTING DRY AIR ACRS                 
CWFA.                                                                           
FLLWG THE NAM FWD...PCPN WL LINGER IN THE NW FOR A CPL MORE HRS                 
BEFORE ITS GETS SHEARED APART. LTL/NO PCPN ELSW. W/ THAT IN MIND...             
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR ADVSRY LVL SNW IS JUST ABT DONE. WL BE UPDTG ZFP            
ETC ASAP...CANCELLING THE ADVSRY. WL PLACE 20-30 POPS IN THE N...AND            
RMVG PCPN ENTIRELY IN THE S.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                           
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN NC AT 12Z THIS MORNING             
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST BY 15Z. RADAR TRENDS AND               
00Z NAM AND 00Z RUC SUPPORT ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL            
VA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WITH LIGHT QPF AND WEAKENING BAND OF                     
PRECIPITATION MOVING FROM NORTHERN WV/NORTHWESTERN MD INTO NORTHERN             
VA AND NORTH CENTRAL MD. THESE TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL INDICATIONS              
POINT TOWARD MARGINAL SNOW ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS...WHERE WET BULB              
EFFECT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE RAIN OR MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW             
TO ALL SNOW. 07Z TEMPERATURES IN ALL LOW ELEVATION SITES OF THE CWA             
IN THE 40S WITH QUITE A FEW OBS IN THE HIGH 40S SUGGEST THAT IT MAY             
TAKE LONGER TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW. WILL REMOVE WASHINGTON AND               
FREDERICK COUNTIES IN MD...MORGAN...BERKELEY...AND JEFFERSON                    
COUNTIES IN WV...AND FREDERICK...CLARK AND LOUDOUN COUNTIES IN VA               
FROM THE SNOW ADVISORY...AS BEST POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING HAS SHIFTED              
SOUTH WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL            
BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE            
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WEAK TO MODERATE CAA WILL             
KEEP TEMPERATURES 4 TO 6 F BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER                 
50S...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BY LATE                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.                                                
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                         
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIPRES NOSES IN FM CNDA TNGT...AND HOLDS THRU                 
WKND. AMS DRY THRUT COLUMN...W/ SFC DEWPTS IN THE TEENS...AND H10-5             
RH AOB 30 PCT. JUST ABT THE ONLY CONSIDERATION WL BE THE WND SAT...             
AS H8-5 LOW WL KEEP A DECENT GRADIENT ACRS AREA. H8 CAA AND SHEARED             
H5 VORT EMBEDDED IN FLOW WL ASSIST IN MIXING WNDS TO SFC. MOMENTUM              
TRANSFER SUGGESTING GUSTS 20-30 KT. BY SUN...HIPRES WL BE NEAR ENUF             
SO THAT WNDS WL BE LGTR. MOS TEMPS NOT FAR APART...AND BLEND GNLY               
TAKEN.                                                                          
SFC LOPRES DVLPG IN SRN CONUS MON MRNG WL NEED TO BE WATCHED...AS IT            
TOSSES MSTR TWD CWFA MON AFTN-TUE MRNG. 12Z GFS FASTER AT F84 AND               
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THRAFTR COMPARED TO NAM. SFC HIGH WL BE ABLE              
TO WARD OFF INITIAL SURGE...BUT FOR HOW LONG? UNLIKE CRRNT SYSTM...             
THIS ONE WL HV PLENTY OF MSTR AVBL THX TO GLFMEX AND COOL AIR WL BE             
IN PLACE...SO PTYPE WL BE AN ISSUE. WL HOLD W/ CRRNT SET OF GRIDS...            
TACKLING ONE STORM AT A TIME.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK LOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN NC THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT                   
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...BUT             
DESPITE PRECIPITATION EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO PREDOMINATE. BEST            
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW FROM 10Z-12Z AT            
MRB/IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN AND 10Z-13Z AT CHO. LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF               
THE NC COAST AFTER 12Z...AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION              
WITH NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.              
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z                         
SATURDAY...EXCEPT AT CHO WHERE VFR WILL BEGIN AT OR ABOUT 13Z.                  
MARINE...                                                                       
NLY FLOW AOB 10 KT ACRS WATERS TDA. TNGT...CAA AND PVA WL COMBINE TO            
PROVIDE BRZY CONDS ACRS THE WATERS...WHERE MIXING SHUD BE GOOD THX              
TO LAPSE RATES. BASED UPON MOMENTUM TRANSFER FM HRLY SNDGS...CUD SEE            
SCA TYPE WNDS SAT...FM ELY MRNG THRU EVE. HIPRES BLDG ACRS WATERS               
WL ENSURE CONDS ARENT PROLONGED BYD THAT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO              
    1 AM SUNDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HTS                                                                    
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SMITH                                                     
LONG TERM/MARINE...HTS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1051 AM EST FRI MAR 17 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS WITH THE CLOUD COVER              
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST             
MAINE...A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING INTO                    
ALBERTA...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH                 
THROUGH NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND A LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH             
A STATIONARY FROM EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL                 
DIVIDE. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE A LOW CLOUDS             
SHOWING UP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE ARE DUE TO COLD              
AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR.                              
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE LEE OF THE HIGH PLAINS RIDGE               
AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST             
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER                  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT              
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN LIGHT. SOUNDING FORECAST SHOWING AIR              
MASS WILL BE VERY DRY ABOVE 3K FEET...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
PRESENT. GFS/NAM MODELS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DRY A BIT               
THIS AFTERNOON AND ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL            
INCREASE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME OF THE CLOUDS COVER TO DISSIPATE OVER            
THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO TAKE OUT            
A MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING BUT LEAVE THE REST THE SAME FOR              
NOW.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi