EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
938 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL                      
PENINSULA. RUC ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SHOW H25 TROUGH ALSO IN                 
ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER THE                  
ATLANTIC ON EAST SIDE OF MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. STEERING                
FLOW WAS MOVING MOST OF THIS CONVECTION ABOUT DUE NORTH EXCEPT IN               
THE SOUTH WHERE THERE WAS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO               
BRING A FEW SHOWERS ASHORE.                                                     
FORECAST...TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE AS SOUTHERN END WAS              
SHOWING SIGNS OF CUTTING OFF...WHILE NEXT MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WAS            
DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO MEAN TROUGH.                                              
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE GREATEST                    
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL GET GOING             
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE SOON IN THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE             
SLOW TO MOVE INLAND DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY STEERING NEAR THE EAST                 
COAST...BUT EVENTUALLY OUTFLOWS WILL KICK IT INLAND.  WATER VAPOR               
LOOP SHOWING LESS EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DRY AIR SO NORTHERN SECTIONS              
SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE CELLS FORM ALONG SEA BREEZE OR PROPAGATE INTO             
THE AREA...COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS VERY LOW COVERAGE. NOT PLANNING ON            
ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                                
MARINE...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DISTURBING THE WIND FIELDS.  WITH                 
LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS IN SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...CURRENT 10 KNOT               
FORECAST LOOKS FINE.                                                            
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WX...VOLKMER                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1035 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                     
VISIBLE SATL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE                    
EDGES...BUT ITS HAVING A TOUGH TIME OF IT AS EASTERLY WINDS NOT REAL            
CONDUCIVE TO DRYING THINGS OUT.  14Z RUC SHOWS LOW LVL MOISTURE                 
CONTINUING TO THIN ACROSS CEN IL DURING THE AFTN HOURS.  SO WILL                
CONTINUE TREND OF SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND             
REMOVE FOG MENTION IN ZONES.                                                    
MESO-ETA SHOWS WAA ONCE AGAIN RIDES OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS            
SRN SECTIONS OF IL THIS AFTN...SO EXPECT A FEW SHRA/TSRA TO SNEAK               
INTO SERN IL BY LATE AFTN.  WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING IN THIS AREA              
TO COVER THIS.                                                                  
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
KETCHAM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
919 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
FCST PROBLEM TGNT WL BE WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DVLPS OVNGT.  STLT               
IMAGERY SHOWS SHRT WV DRIFTING ACRS NRN IA.  IMPRESSIVE BACLIN ZN IN            
PLACE JUST TO OUR S.  01Z SFC ANLYS PLACES WRMFNT ALG LN JUST S OF              
KMKC AND KSTL METRO AREAS WITH 00Z H85 ANLYS SHOWING THAT FNT JUST              
TO THE N.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN STG ISENT LIFT WITH 00Z RUC 310K SFC            
SHOWING OVR 150MB LIFT FM NWRN MO INTO IA.  MSTR S OF WRMFNT LTD SO             
DO NOT XPC ANYTHING SGFNT BUT 00Z KOAX SOUNDING ONLY SHOWS CIN ARND             
70 J/KG WITH PARCEL LIFTED FM 850MB.  COMBINATION OF CONTD ISENT                
LIFT...MSTR ADVCTN AND WEAK DIFFERENTIAL PVA AHD OF SHRT WV SHOULD              
BE ENOUGH TO DMSH CIN AND DVLP WDLY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS AS LOW LVL JET              
STRENGTHENS.  WL CONT MENTION OF PCPN OVNGT SCPLLY NERN HLF AHD OF              
MCV REMNANTS.  ISENT LIFT HAS ALSO RESULTED IN ST DVLPG N OF WRMFNT             
PER 11-3.9 MICRON STLT IMAGERY SO WL MENTION MSTLY CLDY FA WIDE.                
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT WRM WITH ST DVLPG BUT WL LEAVE BE ATTM.                      
.DSM...NONE.                                                                    
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
715 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
WILL UPDATE ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS. FOR MACKINAC                        
COUNTY...WILL DROP MENTION OF EARLY CLOUDS. ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER               
MICHIGAN...VISIBILITIES ARE NO WORSE THAN ONE MILE...UNRESTRICTED AT            
MANY OBSERVING STATIONS...SO WILL DROP MENTION OF MORNING FOG.                  
ALSO...WILL RESTRICT MENTION OF MORNING DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO                    
SOUTHEAST...WHERE RADAR IN CLEAR AIR MODE SHOWS A FEW RETURNS                   
PUSHING WEST OFF LAKE HURON...ROTATING AROUND SHORTWAVE TO SOUTH OF             
REGION. FINALLY...EARLY LOOK AT 12Z KAPX RAOB SHOWS LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE RATHER DEEP...EXTENDING THROUGH 300 FEET AGL...AND 06Z                 
MESOETA/09Z RUC SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON EVEN               
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO WILL RESTRICT MENTION OF MOSTLY             
SUNNY SKIES TO FAR NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND               
WILL INDICATE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO PARTLY SUNNY...MAINLY THIS                  
AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE.                                                          
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
930 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
SFC HIGH NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH RIDGING STILL BACK INTO ERN SD.               
RUC SHOWS THAT THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACRS MN WL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU            
MONDAY MORNING. THUS WL REMOVE MENTION OF STORMS FOR TONIGHT. REST              
OF FCST LOOKS GOOD...THO WILL TWEAK MINS AND WIND SPEEDS A TAD.                 
COMPLEX PATTERN OF LOWS AND FRONTS FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS TO KANSAS.              
12Z AVN DID THE BEST IN TERMS OF SFC PTTN...WITH NGM A CLOSE SECOND.            
AT THE SFC...MAJOR PLAYERS FOR MN WL BE THE STG COLD FRONT WHICH                
EXTENDED FROM CNTRL SASK TO SWRN MT AS OF 00Z...PAIR OF LOWS IN SD              
AND SERN MT THAT AVN SUGGESTS WILL CONSOLIDATE...AND WARM FRONT FROM            
CNTRL SD INTO NERN KS. CORRIDOR OF SIG MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING ALG            
AND JUST NORTH OF WRM FRONT...WITH NMRS DEWPOINTS AOA 75. 00Z UPPER             
AIR ANLYS SHOWS 90 KNOT JET AT GREAT FALLS MT. AVN INTENSIFIES JET              
TO 105 KNOTS BY MONDAY EVENING WITH CENTROID NEAR GFK. THUS WRN AND             
SRN MN WL BE IN RIGHT REAR QUAD EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AND OVER                 
ENTIRE CWA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. BY 00Z AVN PLACES THE LOW AROUND               
MVE WITH WRM FNT XTNDG EWD...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LOCATION              
OF SD AND MT LOWS ATTM.                                                         
MANY PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR SVR WX MONDAY...                 
HOWEVER ONE OPPOSING FACTOR ON THE AVN IS IT PROGS SFC LOW TO                   
BEGIN WEAKENING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURE THIS IS CORRECT IN LIGHT             
OF STRENGTHENING JET CORE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE              
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING QUITE TROPICAL...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN. AVN               
INDICATES AN AMAZING 2.1 PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER CNTRL MN BY MONDAY             
EVENING. MIGHT BE AN OVERNIGHT MCS DVLPG IN SC SD WHERE RUC SHOWS               
STRENGTHENING LO LVL JET POINTING AT SFC LOW...BUT EVEN THAT WOULD              
PROBABLY NOT REACH SRN MN WHERE AMS IS MORE STABLE.  SO IT APPEARS              
THERE ARE MANY FACTORS POINTING TO SVR WX MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT. TIS                
BEEN PRETTY AMAZING TO SEE SO MANY STRONG JET CORES TRAIPSING ACRS              
THE US/CNDN BRDR FOR LATE SUMMER.                                               
.MSP...NONE                                                                     
TDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1020 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                     
FCST UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED BY 11 AM. CURRENT FCST ON TARGET...WITH              
TIMING OF DECREASE IN SHOWERS FM WEST THROUGH MIDDAY. RUC ANALYSIS              
AND SAT IMAGERY SHOW MAIN UPR SUPPORT NOW LIFTING THROUGH SRN MAN OR            
ACROSS ERN NE...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING. HOWEVER...AREA OF               
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS STEADILY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE DKTAS AND WILL               
SUPPORT ADDN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATER TDY AND TNGT. SFC TEMPS                  
SHOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS ERN ND AS CLDS DECREASE THERE.               
BUT NW MN TEMPS MAY BE SLOWED...SO WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY              
IN ERN ZNS.                                                                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
GUST                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
900 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
IR/WV STLT LOOPS SHOW UPPER LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA DROPPING SSEWD               
TOWARD WESTERN PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. RUC AND MESOETA            
INDICATE UPPER LOW NEAR NC-VA BORDER BY 09Z WITH PVA EXTENDING INTO             
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST PART OF             
THE CAE CWA. MESOETA UPWARD LIFT IS ALSO LIMITED TO THIS AREA. MSAS             
MSP SHOWS THAT MESO-HIGH THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH                 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE MOVED SOUTH TO SOUTHERN              
GEORGIA INSTEAD OF MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA AS PROGGED              
BY AN EARLIER MESOETA RUN. THIS KEPT THE SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST                
INSTEAD OF ALLOWING THEM TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEREBY INCREASING             
THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT THE                     
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR THE NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE CAE              
CWA INCLUDING CAE-AGS-SSC-OGB. WILL HOLD ONTO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF            
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH PART INCLUDING LKR (LANCASTER) AND 27J               
(NEWBERRY). IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE                
70S. WILL DROP LOWS TO AROUND 70 CAE-AGS AND INTO THE UPPER 60S                 
NORTHERN PART OF CWA.                                                           
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
CAE   70  90  70  89 /  10  20  20   5                                          
AGS   68  91  68  90 /  10  20  20   5                                          
SSC   71  91  70  90 /  10  20  20   5                                          
OGB   71  89  70  88 /  10  20  20   5                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
630 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.             
MSAS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE NOW WITH LIS -2/-3 AND CAPES              
BELOW 1000. RUC AND MESOETA KEEP ATMOSPHERE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE..SO             
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME POPS.                                                       
FCSTID = 7                                                                      
CAE   73  90  70  89 /  40  20  20   5                                          
AGS   70  91  68  90 /  40  20  20   5                                          
SSC   73  91  70  90 /  40  20  20   5                                          
OGB   73  89  70  88 /  40  20  20   5                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
655 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
PLAN TO UPDATE ZONES TO RAISE POPS FROM 40 TO 60 AND LOWER TEMPERATURES         
FROM AROUND 90 TO UPPER 80S TODAY. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS            
AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY H5 SHORTWAVE IS NEARING THE NW PART OF SC AND            
SHOULD REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. COVERAGE MAY                  
DECREASE SINCE THE LATEST RUC SHOWS MAINLY H95 MOISTURE DIVERGENCE              
OVER THE AREA THROUGH 21Z.                                                      
FCSTID = 5                                                                      
CAE   88  72  91  69 /  60  20  30  20                                          
AGS   88  71  92  69 /  60  20  30  20                                          
SSC   88  73  91  71 /  60  20  40  20                                          
OGB   88  73  91  71 /  60  20  40  20                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RJL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
647 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
CURRENT KOHX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO             
SHOWING CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS               
CENTRAL MISSOURI...TRAINING SEWD INTO SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN                   
KY..AND THUS INTO CWA ALONG THETA-E RIDGE. RUC UPPER AIR DEPICTIONS             
SHOWING SHORTWAVE IN UPSTREAM FLOW ALSO.                                        
BECAUSE OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS                 
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REMAINDER OF TODAY.                                      
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
830 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
LATEST RUC SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT            
FEW HOURS. THUS...WILL UPDATE WIND SPEEDS IN CURRENT PACKAGE. ALL               
ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                            
TAH...71                                                                        
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
CURRENT...SHRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING DISSIPATED SHORTLY AFTERNOON               
MAKING LANDFALL AS DRY AIR STILL DOMINATES.  12Z RAOB INDICATED 1.56            
PWAT.  18Z GOES TPW SHOWS DRY AIR CONT OVR CWFA WITH EVEN DRIER AIR             
OVR THE GLFMEX.  H2O VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY SLOT TRYING TO PUSH            
MORE DRY AIR INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE FIGHTING H2 JET            
PUSHING MOISTURE FROM THE S INTO THE AREA FROM MEX.                             
SHORT TERM...ETA FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS REMAIN AT OR BELOW               
THIS MORNINGS READING.  MODEL EVEN DROPS PWAT TO 1.35 AND 1.32 MON              
AND TUE RESPECTIVELY.  AS H2 JET MOISTURE INFLUX MOVES W...SHUD SEE             
DRY SLOT MOVE CLOSE TO CWFA.  VERT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CONTINUATION             
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...JUST ENUF FOR SOME EARLY MORNING CSTL                   
SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...ATMO DRIES RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT.  MEAN RH VALUES             
TO REMAIN ARND 50% THRU SHORT TERM.  WITH DRIER AIR...WILL GO ABOVE             
FAN/FWC ON HIGHS AND BELOW ON LOWS.  NO POPS IN THE SHORT TERM...IN             
FACT MOS SHOWS BELOW CLIMO POPS NXT 7 DAYS.  NGM DOES SHOW WEAK H5              
VORT MOVING THRU 12Z MON...BUT DOUBT COULD DO ANYTHING WITH DRY                 
AIR.  OTRW STRONG UPR RIDGE TO KEEP A STRANGLE HOLD ON REGION.                  
LONG TERM...MODELS DIFFER IN LONG TERM OUTLOOK.  MRF/ETA ARE TRYING             
TO PUSH H5 RIDGE...AT LEAST THE CENTER...TO THE EAST.  NGM IS                   
SLOWER...IF AT ALL.  MRF EVEN SUGGESTS A BIG PATTERN CHANGE WITH                
DEEP MID LAT TROF DIGGING DOWN FROM PAC NW.  TOO EARLY TO BUY THAT              
SOLUTION.  AVN SHOWS RIDGE MOVES E...BUT SPLITS THE CENTER HOLDING              
ONE BACK OVR N TX.                                                              
GOOD CONV ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN GULF OFF S FL COAST.  ALL             
MODELS TRY TO FORM AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE E COAST OF FL...BUT                 
DIFFER IN STRENGTH.  IN FACT.... ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE NO SFC                    
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.  MRF SPLITS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE            
GOES INTO THE GULF FCST TO MOVE TO THE LA COAST BY 00Z 9/2 WITH THE             
OTHER TO THE E FL. COAST.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE OVR NEXT COUPLE            
MODEL RUNS.                                                                     
MARINE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ADEQUATE THROUGH TUESDAY.              
WEAK SFC THETAE CONVERGENCE/SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/SPEED                      
CONVERGENCE/1000-850HPA DIVERGENCE Q-Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WARRANTS              
ISOLATED SHRA THROUGH TUESDAY. NO TIMING REFERENCE NEEDED OFFSHORE              
BUT WILL RESTRICT TO LATE NIGHT/MORNING FOR THE BAYS. SFC                       
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GLFMEX WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT                    
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. LOWERING PRESSURES WITH CYCLONE NORTH OF TX             
WILL SERVE AS AN AFTERNOON/EVENING ENHANCEMENT(LESS SO TUESDAY).                
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT A WEAK NOCTURNAL JET TONIGHT. WILL KEEP                 
WINDS JUST SHORT OF SCEC THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED             
TO SEE BHP/PTA AT 17 OR 18 KTS FOR A TIME TONIGHT. WILL REVIEW                  
LATEST RUC/MESOETA PRIOR TO RELEASE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED                
ARGUES VAGUENESS AT THIS POINT. MOST LIKELY INCREASE IN MOISTURE                
COMES LATE IN THE WEEK. LATEST IR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM MODELS LEND            
CREDENCE TO SFC CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT INVOF FLORIDA BUT CARIBBEAN             
SEA NOT EVIDENT ATTM.                                                           
PRELIMS FOLLOW...                                                               
CRP UB 072/098 073/096 074 0000                                                 
VCT UB 071/098 073/097 073 0000                                                 
LRD UB 077/101 076/100 077 0000                                                 
ALI UB 073/100 074/100 075 0000                                                 
KEG...70                                                                        
BB...85                                                                         
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA                                         
848 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2000                                                      
BUSY EVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH HAIL PRODUCING TSRA ABOUT OVERHEAD AND            
MOVING LITTLE. APCHG UPR LOW NOW OVER CNTRL WVA PRODUCING NEXT BATCH            
OF TSRA AND EXPECT IT TO SLIDE THRU SE WVA AND ACROSS MUCH OF                   
WRN/SWRN VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH ATMOS WEST OF THE               
BLUE RDG HAVING RECOVERED FROM EARLIER SHRA AND INCRSG LAPSE RATES              
PER COLD POOL WILL LKLY SEE CVRG HOLD TOGETHER A BIT LONGER TNGT.               
THIS SEEMS ON TRACK WITH GOING MESO-ETA/RUC WHICH TRACK UPR VORT                
SEWD THRU THE CWA OVRNGT AND INTO NC BY MORN. APRS BEST UVV TO                  
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EWD ON PVA SIDE OF UPR SUPPORT WHICH SHOULD SHIFT              
SEWD OVRNGT. THUS PLAN TO BUMP UP POPS TO CAT EARLY ON THEN CUT TO              
CHC LATER ON. ELSW...GOOD CHC TO LKLY ON TAP AT LEAST TIL A WHILE               
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SOME SLIGHT TEMP ADJUST IN STORE.  WILL ISSUE ZFP              
EARLY TO COVER INCRSG POPS ATTM.                                                
.RNK...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
245 AM CDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                      
FORECAST QUANDARIES...CLOUD COVER...PCPN CHANCES...AND TEMPS.                   
CURRENT ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY                   
SHOWING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MID STATE.                      
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS "STREAMING" SEWD FROM SW WI INTO THE                     
MID STATE PER NWLY FLOW. MSAS/SURFACE HAND ANALYSES SHOWING                     
SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN PLATTE RIVER OF NE WITH STATIONARY                 
BOUNDARY "ARCHING" INTO CENTRAL MI...THEN SEWD TO SE MS GULF COAST.             
SURFACE BOUNDARY OF NOTE ACROSS CENTRAL KY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS                
AVERAGING 5 DEGREES OR LESS UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. CWA/S RUC MODEL              
SOUNDING PROFILES STILL SHOWING INSTABILITY INDICES SUPPORTIVE OF               
CONVECTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.3-1.6 INCH RANGE.            
RUC/UPPER AIR CHART ANALYSES DEPICTING WIND FLOW STARTING TO VEER               
WITH HEIGHT MORE N THAN NWLY...UNLIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS MODEL                     
DEPICTIONS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES "TAKE HOLD" OF AREAL             
WEATHER PATTERN.                                                                
00Z ETA/NGM MON REGIONAL MODEL EVOLUTIONS THROUGH 00Z WED IN GENERAL            
AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING...BUT CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION               
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...                
LEAVING US AT THE MERCY OF PERIPHERY RIDGE CLOUDINESS AND  CONVECTION           
POTENTIAL. AVN SEEMS TOO "AGGRESSIVE" IN DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE                 
FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST INITIALIZATION OF CURRENT WEATHER              
SCENARIO IS THE NGM...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED DISCUSSION MODEL.                  
ETA MODEL SHOWING NO PCPN POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z THU WITH NGM                    
DEPICTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN SOME EXTENT ACROSS THE MIDSTATE                
FROM 18Z MON ON. SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH REMAINING ACROSS                 
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND                 
SOUTH "WASHING OUT". HOWEVER...SURFACE PATTERN REMAINING SOMEWHAT               
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO                  
REMAIN AOB 1.5 INCHES WITH MULTIPLE INSTABILITY INDICES STILL                   
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION EVEN WITH THE                 
DRY ETA SOLUTION. WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION ON A                       
SCATTERED SCALE WITH NO MAJOR UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO SPEAK OF.                 
HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON HEATING                 
INFLUENCES CAUSING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM                    
DEVELOPMENT LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.                               
MAIN FORECAST QUANDARY CENTERS AROUND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR           
AROUND PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE CWA?              
NGM MODEL RH FIELDS CONTINUING TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                   
TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 00Z TUE.                
COULD "SPLIT HAIRS" TRYING TO FORECAST THIS QUANDARY...BUT WITH                 
SOME REMNANT OF NWLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z TUE...SKY                      
CONDITIONS TODAY COULD REMAIN VARIABLE AND DEFINITELY ON TUE.                   
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ADDRESS SKY CONDITIONS AS VARIABLE                     
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.                                                          
TEMPS...NGM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE               
PERIOD AND WILL LEAN ACCORDINGLY.                                               
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BNA 091/071/093/070 2221                                                        
CSV 085/064/087/064 2221                                                        
.BNA...NONE.                                                                    
14                                                                              
JBW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                     
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE WIDESPREAD FOG AND               
LOW CLOUDS WHICH AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY CWA THIS MORNING              
HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THERE STILL IS...HOWEVER...A FEW LINGERING             
PATCHES OF FOG (KTVC STILL AT 2 1/2 MILES). ALL THE FOG WILL                    
CONTINUE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT BY NOON. AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS             
IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE CLOUDS WILL TAKE              
MUCH LONGER TO MIX OUT (MID AFTERNOON)...YET THEY SHOULD STAY CLEAR             
OF THE SHORELINE.                                                               
12Z KAPX SOUNDING WAS SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 950MB WITH A DRY                
LAYER ABOVE 900MB. I FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLY LOW-LEVEL                    
MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY                    
EXPECTION WILL BE ACROSS NE LOWER MI AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL                   
PENETRATE INLAND UNDER THE LARGE-SCALE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CU THAT              
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT AS A RATHER STRONG                  
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP FROM 850 TO 700MB IN ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL PREVENT ANY TYPE            
OF SHOWER/TSTM TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARYS THIS                     
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...I WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AFTERNOON FORECAST.                
DROPPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN            
TIER COUNTIES. TEMPS GOT A SLOW START TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD                 
LOW-CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING. MIXING TO 850MB ON RUC SOUNDINGS               
SUPPORT MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MAX TEMPS.                                       
UPDATED ZFPAPX ALREADY ISSUED.                                                  
.KAPX...NONE.                                                                   
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP SHOW UPR RDG ACRS GRT LKS WITH VIGOROUS SHRTWV OVR            
SRN SASKATCHEWAN MOVG EWD THRU WRN TROF. SFC HI PRES OVR WRN QUEBEC             
WITH RDG AXIS XTNDG WWD THRU CWA INTO ERN MN. LOTS OF TSRA IN LLVL              
CNVGC AHD OF SFC FNT IN ND ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROF AND UNDER                   
COUPLED UPR JETS/H3 DIFFLUENCE ACRS NE ND/NW MN. CNVCTN HAS FIRED AT            
EDGE OF VERY STRG LID EVIDENT ON 12Z BIS SDNG...H7 TEMPS IN NRN PLAINS          
IN 10-12C RANGE. LOCAL 12Z SDNGS SHOW VERY STRG SUBSIDENCE INVRN                
BTWN H8-85 OVR MOIST LLVLS OVR CWA IN SLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC              
HI. CONSIDERABLE LO CLD AND FOG TRAPPED UNDER INVRN AND MOST WDSPRD             
ACRS WCNTRL ZNS. EVEN THOUGH ERN CWA GENERALLY MCLR...LO CLD OFF LK             
MI APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING NWD JUST E OF ISQ PER LATEST VIS IMAGERY.            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS MRNG ARE HANDLING OF LO CLD TDAY AND TSRA               
CHCS. 12Z RUC MODEL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 06Z ETA SHOWING VIGOROUS             
SRN CAN SHRTWV AND BEST UPR DVGC/QVECTOR CNVGC LIFTING NEWD TOWARD              
WRN ONTARIO BY 00Z WITH SFC COLD FNT REACHING JUST W OF DLH EARLY               
THIS EVNG. SO UPR/SFC RDGING TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE OVR CWA             
TDAY WITH WSWLY ALF GRDLY ADVCTG HIER H7 TEMPS OVR FA TO MAINTAIN               
STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE INVRN/CAP. STRG CAPPING WL PREVENT QUICK                 
LIFTING OF LO CLD...BUT XPCT GRDL INCRS IN CIG HGT FM IFR THIS MRNG             
TO MVFR AND VFR THIS AFTN AS SOLAR HTG AND INCRSG PRES GRADIENT/SLY             
FLOW AHD OF APRCHG COLD FNT INCREASE MIXING BLO INVRN. ABUNDANT LO              
CLD WL HOLD SFC TEMPS DOWN QUITE A BIT BLO THE 90 DEGREES NECESSARY             
TO BRK THE CAP IN PLACE PER 12Z GRB SDNG. WL LWR FCST MAX TEMPS                 
ESPECIALLY IN CENTER OF LO CLD AREA ARND IMT TO ACCOUNT FOR DCRSD               
INSOLATION PER LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE AND HI TEMPS UPSTREAM ON SUN.               
ALTHOUGH 06Z ETA DOES FCST WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WEAK H5 VORT               
LOBE THAT EMANATES FM NE ND CNVCTN THIS MRNG TO SWING INTO WRN LK               
SUP AFTR 21Z...LACK OF CONSIDERABLE SFC HTG/BNDRY SUG TSRA A NO GO              
FOR TDAY OVR CWA. FCST RUC/MESOETA SDNGS SHOW LARGE NEGATIVE AREA AT            
IWD PERSISTING THRU 00Z EVEN WITH 80/65.                                        
ARRIVAL OF COLD FNT TNGT WL INCRS TSRA CHCS W TO E. STRG WND SHEAR              
WL ENHANCE SVR THREAT...BUT LACK OF SGNFT DYNAMICS AND LINGERING CAP            
ASSOCIATED WITH HI H7 TEMPS AND UPR JET/VORT MAX STAYING FAR TO N               
SHUD MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL. WL ISSUE ARBSPSMQT (WWUS35 KMQT) AFTR             
ARRIVAL/EXAMINATION OF 12Z ETA TO DETAIL SVR THREAT TNGT.                       
.MQT...GALE WARNING EAST LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.                                 
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
650 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                      
10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY                    
WIDESPREAD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW           
JUST OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 15 KNOTS PER KAPX 88-D VAD WIND PROFILE...          
THESE LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO SURGE NORTH/NORTHWEST INTO THE FORECAST        
AREA. THUS...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO UPGRADE EARLY CLOUD COVER TO MOSTLY           
CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...AND WILL EXTEND MENTION OF EARLY LOW        
CLOUDS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO        
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WELL. ALSO...WILL DOWNGRADE SKY COVER FORECASTS       
FROM MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY AS STRATUS DECK THIS MORNING SHOULD           
TRANSLATE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS IS             
CONFIRMED BY 06Z MESOETA/09Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
FORECASTS.                                                                      
CLOUD COVER COULD IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF LOW            
CLOUDS LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER      
FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITH THIS PACKAGE.                                        
.KAPX...NONE.                                                                   
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
230 PM MDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                      
POPS TONIGHT THE BIGGEST QUESTION.                                              
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SIG PV             
ANOMALY OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...DRIFTING SLOWLY NWRD. DEEP DRY AIR            
AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE                   
TEMPORARILY SUPPRESSED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA...WITH THE              
"MONSOON" PLUME ORIENTED WEST TO EAST OVER THE NRN HALF OF CO.                  
LOOKING NORTH...FAIRLY STG FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOSING INTO NRN CO...WITH           
MAIN PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER SD INTO MN.                                      
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIP INTO AT LEAST NRN PTNS OF                
THE AREA BEFORE GOING STATIONARY...WHILE PV ANOMALY DRIFTS TOWARD               
THE CO/NM BORDER. MODELS PROG FAIRLY STG UPWARD MOTION OVER THE                 
EASTERN SLOPES/PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH                      
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. BIGGEST NEGATIVE FOR CONVECTION IS                 
THE DEEP DRY AIR/SUBSIDENT AREA OVER NRN NM...DRIFTING NWRD. BOTTOM             
LINE...SCT-WIDELY SCT POPS OK FOR TONIGHT...FWC POPS LOOKING A                  
LITTLE TOO HIGH. LEAST CHC WOULD APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SE PLAINS...             
THOUGH WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND SEVERAL OLD BOUNDARIES IN PLACE...            
WON'T ELIMINATE CHCS ENTIRELY. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT ANY CONVECTION           
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LINGER WELL PAST SUNSET...SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT OVER NEW MEXICO.                                                          
TUES...PV ANOMALY STILL OVER THE SE CORNER AS SFC FRONT WASHES OUT              
OVER THE EAST. DEEPEST MONSOON PLUME MAINLY WEST OF THE CWFA AS                 
WELL. WILL TONE THINGS BACK TO JUST SLIGHT CHCS MOST EVERYWHERE...              
DESPITE FWC'S HIGHER POPS. SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE EAST...THOUGH FWC            
LOOKING TOO DRAMATIC AS USUAL...WILL GO WITH MAV NUMBERS.                       
TUE NIGHT/WED...AGAIN...MONSOON PLUME TO THE WEST WITH LITTLE/NO                
UPWARD MOTION PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH JUST THE USUAL              
SLIGHT CHCS FOR MTNS/ADJACENT PLAINS...AND DRY FOR THE EAST. SLIGHT             
UPTREND IN MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY EAST.                                         
EXTENDED...UPPER PATTERN IN A STATE OF TRANSITION LATE WEEK AND INTO            
THE WEEKEND. 12Z AVN AND 00Z MRF SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT UPTURN IN                
PRECIP CHCS THURS...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT OVER THE EAST...AND                 
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING EWRD ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGH DEEPENS OVER             
THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THU THINGS BECOME MORE MUDDLED...               
ESPECIALLY CONCERNING MOISTURE. MRF SUGGEST SW FLOW TO SHUNT MOST               
MOISTURE EASTWARD FRI...BUT THEN DEVELOPS ANOTHER "PLUME" OVER THE              
AREA SATURDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE THE BROADBRUSH OF              
PRECIP CHCS INTO SAT...WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT TEMPS.                            
QUICK PEEK AT THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WOULD SUGGEST A              
FAIRLY SIG FROPA FOR ALL THE CWFA SUN/MON AS WRN TROUGH MOVES INLAND.           
STILL A LONG WAY OFF AND PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODEL FLIP-FLOPS...SO               
NOT TOO EXCITED YET.                                                            
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
PETERSEN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
245 PM CDT MON AUG 28 2000                                                      
BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHC OF RW/TRW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                 
EARLY EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NE-E SECTIONS.                                     
AT EARLY AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT LAY NW-SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. ACCORDING TO THE RUC/ETA/AVN THE FRONT WILL                
SHOW ONLY MINIMAL MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18                 
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME THOUGH...MODELS BUILD BOTH H7 & H5 RIDGES                
ACROSS THE FA AND SHOW WARM AIR ADVECTION AT BOTH THE H8 & H7                   
LEVELS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS                 
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...IN AN                
AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND WHERE H7 TEMPS ARE 11C OR COOLER.              
AT THE MOMENT AM LEANING AGAINST 1ST PERIOD CHC POPS EVERYWHERE                 
EXCEPT EXTREME NE-E SECTIONS EVEN THOUGH SFC BOUNDARY IN VCNTY...               
BECAUSE BY 00Z MODELS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS >11C...SHIFT DEEPEST                 
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND I315 UPGLIDE WEAKENS. MODELS HOWEVER            
SHOW GOOD I315 PRESSURE ADVECTION ACROSS EXTREME NE-E SECTIONS.                 
BEYOND THE 1ST PERIOD SEE NO SHORT TERM PROBLEMS AS UPPER RIDGE                 
PLANTS ITSELF ACROSS FA.                                                        
FOR EXTENDED...AVN AND MRF BOTH SHIFTING UPPER HIGH OFF EAST COAST              
ALLOWING UPPER LOW TO ROTATE NORTHWEST TOWARD FA. ALTHOUGH THIS IS              
AN UNUSUAL PATTERN...SEE NO REASON TO DISPUTE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL            
MENTION POPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.                                            
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
PACKETT                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ky