AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
251 PM MDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)                                                            
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING               
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BROAD UPPER              
TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY            
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ONSHORE                  
ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST ATTM. AT THE SFC...1-2MB 3HRLY PRESSURE                 
FALLS BEING NOTED ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN RESPONSE TO THE                   
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.                                                           
FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION               
TONIGHT AND SLOWLY INCREASES OVERNIGHT AS PAC NW SHORT WAVE                     
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WITH THE INCREASING            
FLOW ALOFT...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN                
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LEE TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS THE                        
I-25 CORRIDOR...A DECENT GRADIENT SETS UP FOR GAP FLOWS ACROSS THE              
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE WARMED UP LOWS ACROSS            
THE EASTERN SLOPES AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH HAVE GONE              
AOB COLDEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THINKING               
THAT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO ALLOW TEMPS TO TANK             
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ARKANSAS             
RIVER VALLEY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIN LAYER              
OF MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL MTS WITH THE NORTHWEST                  
FLOW...THOUGH WITH POOR LAPSE RATES...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY             
OF ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT.                                                     
FRIDAY...WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES ALOFT AS EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN                  
COLORADO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING MOISTURE              
AND LAPSE RATES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SNOW MODEL                
YIELDING 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH WITH SOME QG             
IMPLIED ASCENT HAVE GONE WITH UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ZONES 58 AND 60             
WITH LATER SHIFTS MAY BE NEEDING TO HOIST AN ADVISORY FOR LATE                  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE FAR            
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR BREEZY WESTERLY             
WINDS TO MIX DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH DOWNSLOPE HELPING            
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. -MW                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                                 
...FCST CONCERNS THIS PD CONTINUE TO BE SAT WX SYSTEM AND A NEW                 
   SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK...                                              
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WX SYSTEM FOR FRI NITE INTO SATURDAY.              
CURRENT WAT VAP IMGY CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS SYSTEM UP ACROSS S                  
ALASKA AND INTO NW CANADA. SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN THE                 
IMGY. RAW MODEL DATA DOES NOT APPEARS ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AS SYSTEM             
CROSSES OUR AREA BUT BELIEVE MODEL MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN                 
CURRENT SAT PIX REPRESENTATION AND MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DATA.                
LATEST FCST BRINGS FRONT INTO AREA LATE THU AFTERNOON OR EARLY                  
FRIDAY EVENING. GUSTY N WINDS SHOULD COME ALONG WITH THE FROPA. RAW             
GRIDDED DATA SHOWS SYSTEM RATHER DRY BUT BELIEVE THIS IS UNDERDONE              
AND HAVE CONTINUED CURRENT TREND IN BRING CLOUDS INTO REGION FRI                
EVENING. AS FOR POPS...GIVEN LAPSE RATES AND FORCING...BELIEVE THERE            
WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STEADY WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS THE C            
MTNS FRI EVE INTO SAT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE IS SHORT TERM                         
DISCUSSION...HILITES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS REGION.                  
ON PLAINS...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ALONG S FACING SLOPES OF              
S MTNS AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FRI EVE...AND THEN DOWN TOWARDS              
THE S SANGRES/RATON MESA REGION ON SATURDAY. I AM QUITE CONFIDENT               
THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE COLDER TEMPS COME IN FRIDAY NITE AND                
INTO SAT. TEMPS SAT WILL LIKELY BE 20F COOLER THAN FRIDAY.                      
BY SUNDAY...SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE SUN ON THIS DAY...BUT TEMPS WILL              
STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE.                                                      
FOR NEXT WEEK...NICE WX WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S            
WITH DRY WX.                                                                    
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE NOW            
SHOWING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN            
WEST. IF THE MODELS ARE A PERFECT PROG...THEN THIS WILL BE A PRETTY             
GOOD STORM...HOWEVER...FOR NOW...THE ONLY CHANGES I MADE TO THE LONG            
RANGE PERIOD WAS TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE              
REGION WED NITE INTO THU. \/HODANISH                                            
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/34                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
848 AM MDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE FREEZE                 
WARNING HEADLINE AS WELL AS INCREASE CLOUD COVER BASED ON LATEST                
SATELLITE TRENDS AS THE EXIT REGION OF H3 90KT JET DIVES SOUTHEAST              
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS MAY LIMIT HEATING EVEN WITH LOW LEVEL               
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD SUPPORTS               
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SO ONLY ADJUSTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES                 
DOWN SLIGHTLY WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE WAS. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE               
FROM THE MID 50S WEST/NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60/LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.               
MCGUIRE                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 245 AM MDT THU OCT 19 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...A FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING.                   
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP TODAY AND FRIDAY                 
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION PHASE WITH              
THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.           
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EARLY                 
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RAISING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY           
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY...OR ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN               
TO THE UPPER 20S AS WINDS SLACKEN AROUND SUNRISE.                               
MODELS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST              
COUPLE OF RUNS. NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH                
SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HIGH PLAINS                   
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  HAVE USED MORE OF A GFS                    
SOLUTION WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC WIND FIELDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE               
SHORT TERM. THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY                
MADE MINOR CHANGES OVERALL. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY                    
TIMING AND COVERAGE AREAS OF THE DIFFERENT PRECIPITATION TYPES                  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES                    
APPROACH AND JUST MANAGE TO REACH FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST                     
SECTIONS. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS               
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR                
LESS OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE                      
COLORADO COUNTIES.                                                              
HAVE KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING              
TREND FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                 
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
931 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SECONDARY AREA OF RAIN PRECEDED BY SCT SHRA MOVING INTO THE LMK                 
CWA AS OF 1Z. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH CWA BETWEEN               
NOW AND ABOUT 1AM EDT...THEN CUTOFF QUICKLY GIVEN DISTINCT BACK                 
EDGE TO PRECIP SEEN ON PAH RADAR AS UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT. WILL                  
CONTINUE 100% POPS ASSOC WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEN TAPER OFF                    
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST.                                                      
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE                
QUARTER INCH PER HOUR. ITS LIKELY WE COULD SEE SOME BRIGHT                      
BANDING ON RADAR (AND OVERESTIMATES OF PRECIP) WITH SIGNIFICANTLY               
LOWER FRZ LEVELS SPREADING INTO THE DISTRICT ASSOC WITH UPPER TROF              
AXIS. IN FACT...RUC IS ANALYZING A TIGHT FRZ LEVEL GRADIENT FROM                
NEAR IND TO SRN IL AS OF 2Z. BUT EVEN WITH ONLY MODEST RAIN                     
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE VERY WET SOILS...WE COULD SEE SOME RENEWED                    
PONDING WATER AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING IN LOW SPOTS...WHICH              
WE'LL LIKELY HANDLE WITH AN SPS IF THE NEED ARISES.                             
CIGS INCREASE INTO THE MVFR RANGE NEAR AND AFTER THIS RAIN                      
BAND...AND EXPECT THIS TO BE THE CASE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.              
TEMPS ARE ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 40S AT HNB...WITH EVEN SOME UPPER              
30S IN SE IL. MAY LOWER FCST MINS A DEGREE OR SO IN OUR SRN IND                 
COUNTIES TO REFLECT THIS...LEAVING LOW 40S IN THE KY COUNTIES.                  
UPDATED FCST OUT BY 10 PM EDT.                                                  
CS                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 727 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006)                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
SFC COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE LMK CWA...WITH LOW PRES ORGANIZING               
ALONG FRONT OVER ALABAMA AS OF 23Z. FIRST AREA OF RAIN NOW OVER                 
THE BLUEGRASS IS EXPECTED TO DEPART THE CWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.               
EVEN THROUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN EXCESSIVELY HIGH (1-1.5             
INCHES)...THE VERY WET GROUND MEANS ALL THIS HAS BEEN QUICKLY                   
CONVERTED TO RUNOFF...SO WE HAVE A FLOOD ADVISORY OUT UNTIL 9 PM                
FOR PARTS OF THE BLUEGRASS WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE FALLEN. ONLY               
EXPECTING MINOR FLOODING OF NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE SPOTS.                         
SECOND AREA OF RAIN...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF 500MB SHORTWAVE...                   
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY/SW IN...AND IS EXPECTED               
TO AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING HOURS. ONGOING                    
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER                
IN ERN ZONES.                                                                   
TAF WISE...LOW CIGS ARE CONTINUING OVER THE REGION...THOUGH                     
CURIOUSLY ENOUGH CIGS ARE HIGHER OUT WEST WHERE 2ND RAIN AREA IS.               
HOWEVER MODEL RH FIELDS AND MOS ARE INDICATING IFR/LIFR CIGS                    
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL KEEP LOW CIGS IN TAFS               
THROUGH BALANCE OF THE EVENING...BUT AS 2ND AREA OF SHOWERS PASSES              
WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CIGS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY                      
HERE...SO FREQ UPDATES TO TAFS ARE LIKELY AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.                 
CS                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 230 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006)                          
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD PROGRESSIVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH            
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AMPLE MID             
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY               
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL RAPIDLY             
TRANSLATE EASTWARD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...MOVING INTO OHIO BY MIDDAY            
FRIDAY.                                                                         
AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE                                  
SOUTHEAST...EXITING CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW             
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE                     
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AS IT MOVES INTO NEW                   
ENGLAND.                                                                        
SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH              
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD AND UPPER                  
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH MOST                
AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR MORE.                        
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM BRING THE BEST DYNAMICS THROUGH CENTRAL                
KENTUCKY AROUND MID EVENING. BOTH HINT AT PERHAPS TWO AREAS OF                  
ENHANCE RAINFALL. THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GREATER                     
INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE            
VALLEY. THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH                  
FAVORABLE JET STREAM POSITION AND WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL               
AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.                                 
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM                  
RAPIDLY MOVES AWAY. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS AREA EARLY              
TOMORROW AND WITH IT...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.                                     
CLEARING MAY BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TOMORROW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A              
SATURATED MOIST LAYER BELOW 925MB TRAPPED BELOW A STRENGTHENING                 
INVERSION...WITH DIMINISHING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BY THE EVENING.               
FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CLEARING TOMORROW WILL BE WEST OF            
INTERSTATE 65.                                                                  
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT AND                 
EXPECT CHILLY TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S BY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE               
BUILDS IN TOWARDS TOMORROW EVENING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  JSD              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)                                       
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                                  
UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL SPIN NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FOR A FEW DAYS            
.PRODUCING GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING              
OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER SHORT WAVE DEPARTS EAST LATE FRIDAY...RIDGE IS              
DEPICTED ALONG PACIFIC COAST WITH MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW FROM THE              
ROCKIES TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE                 
UPPER VORTEX FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE             
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL             
RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH SHOWERS                 
MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE OVER              
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL LEAVE A                  
MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY DAY MONDAY...THOUGH WITH A COOL NORTHWEST                 
BREEZE.                                                                         
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                               
UPPER VORTEX CHANNELING CANADIAN AIR INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF             
THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE A              
BREAK FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OF THE PAST 10 DAYS.                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL...RESULTING IN COOL BUT MAINLY               
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS LATEST RUN WAS LESS                    
AMPLIFIED THAN THE PRIOR RUN...WHERE ANOTHER FRONT AND CHANCE OF                
SHOWERS WAS SUGGESTED ABOUT NEXT THURSDAY. LATER RUNS WILL GIVE                 
GUIDANCE ON WHETHER SHOWERS NEED MENTIONING FOR THURSDAY OR NOT.                
 -REITMEYER                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV RDG MOVING INTO               
THE UPR GRT LKS. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS SHOW SHARP INVRN BTWN             
H85-H875...WITH VERY DRY AIR NOTED ABV THE INVRN. SUB INVRN LYR IS              
RATHER DRY AS WELL BLO SHALLOW MOIST LYR NR INVRN BASE. SC OVC UNDER            
INVRN BASE IS GENERALLY HI MVFR/LO VFR HGT. LOWEST TEMP WITHIN MIXED            
LYR AT INVRN BASE ABOUT -7C TO -8C. DIURNAL --SHRASN HAVE DSPTD WITH            
DNVA/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/H7 SUBSIDENCE AND ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW             
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SFC AXIS OF HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG. SOME HIER            
CLD STREAMING INTO THE UPR LKS AHEAD OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO SW               
MN. ALTHOUGH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 280-300K SFCS/H85-5                    
QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS FCST TO SPREAD INTO THE WRN CWA            
OVERNGT...MID LVLS FCST TO REMAIN PROHIBITIVELY DRY. SINCE SN GROWTH            
MICROPHYSICS POOR (MIXED LYR SVRL DEGREES WARMER THAN -10C) HAVE                
REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING ISOLD -SHRA OVER              
ERN LK SUP CLOSER TO LINGERING THERMAL TROF/BIT HIER INVRN BASE THAT            
MIGHT HAVE A CHC TO TAPE COLDER AIR. THESE -SHRA WL TEND TO DIMINISH            
LATE WITH ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW AND BACKING LLVL FLOW. EVEN                 
THOUGH SOME UVV PSBL LATE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF QVECTOR CNVGC...                  
ACCOMPANYING WAD WL MAINTAIN SHARP INVRN AND SC OVC IN PLACE NOW.               
GOING FCST LO TEMPS APPEAR IN GOOD SHAPE WITH RELATIVELY SMALL                  
DIURNAL TEMP DCRS EXPECTED UNDER OVC.                                           
KC                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT)...                                  
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST               
AND ACROSS FLORIDA WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE REST OF THE                  
COUNTRY AND A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THERE IS A               
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE ACROSS B.C. WITH STRONG DARKENING NOTED             
ON WATER VAPOR AND ALSO A BAROCLINIC LEAF ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS THE             
WRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND ACROSS WA/ID. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE                 
NOTED IN THE BROAD TROUGH WITH ONE OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND ONE                 
ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.                         
THE B.C. SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND WILL PASS TO THE                 
SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT AND SUN WITH THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER                   
ONTARIO SLOWLY ROTATING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WEAK               
SHORTWAVES EVERY SO OFTEN ROTATING AROUND IT. NAM IS BRINGING THE               
STORM SYSTEM FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND            
THIS IS A DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WHICH HAD THE SYSTEM               
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THINGS FURTHER                
EAST AND HAS SOLUTION CONTINUITY ON ITS SIDE AND WILL GO WITH ITS               
SOLUTION FOR FRI AND BEYOND.                                                    
NAM SHOWING THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE BRINGING IN SOME 850-500 MB                   
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT WITH THIS REMAINING OVER THE CWA ON                
FRI. NAM ALSO SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE COMING BELOW            
850 MB TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA ON I280K SURFACE. NAM DOES BRING SOME             
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ON I285K-I290K SURFACES ACROSS THE CWA             
ON FRI WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB. GFS SHOWS                 
ABOUT THE SAME THING WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB ON THE                 
ISENTROPIC SURFACE OF I280K TONIGHT AND LIFT AND MOISTURE BELOW 700             
MB ON I290K SURFACE ON FRI. ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL IS THERE TO PUT IN               
SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH LAKE EFFECT                  
SHOWERS GOING ON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH              
TO GO WITH SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THEN EAST OF MARQUETTE AND FLURRIES               
ELSEWHERE. FOR FRI...WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THE DAKOTAS                 
SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND               
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES ACROSS THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT THEN KICKS IN FOR            
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN.                                                          
OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WENT             
WITH THE WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AND CLOSE TO THE                 
COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH THE SMALLEST DIURNAL TEMPERATURE                
RANGE BECAUSE CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WENT              
MOSTLY WITH THE ADJMEN FOR TEMPERATURES.                                        
IN THE EXTENDED...500 MB PATTERN CONSISTS OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE                
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. 00Z               
MON. TROUGH REMAINS INTO MON WITH A CLOSED LOW TO THE EAST OF THE               
AREA. BY TUE...TROUGH AXIS IS EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED WITH RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE UPPER                 
GREAT LAKES 00Z THU. 06Z GFS AND ECWMF SHOW THIS SOLUTION WHILE THE             
00Z GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW TROUGHING REMAINING IN THE AREA THROUGH               
THE PERIOD. MODEL CONTINUITY WOULD ARGUE WITH TROUGHING REMAINING IN            
THE REGION WITH RIDGING BEING A NEW SOLUTION TODAY COMPARED TO                  
YESTERDAY. WILL STICK WITH 00Z GFS SOLUTION AND KEEP TROUGHING IN               
THE AREA WHICH MEANS LAKE EFFECT PCPN WILL CONTINUE INTO WED NIGHT              
AND THEN WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN THE AREA...LAKE              
EFFECT ENDS FOR THU AND WILL GO DRY FOR NOW ON THAT DAY. WITH                   
TROUGHING IN THE AREA...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY BELOW NORMAL. WENT            
CLOSE TO ADJMXR FOR LOWS AND HIGHS WHICH SEEMED REASONABLE BASED ON             
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ALSO WENT WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE              
DAY AND SNOW AT NIGHT BASED ON TEMPERATURES. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE             
TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST.                                
MICHELS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
OVERALL...GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDED SCT SNOW SHOWERS INTO                 
GRIDS IN FAR W CWA VCNTY OF KIWD. VSBY ON AWOS SINCE 1235Z SHOWING              
AROUND 3SM WITH REPORT OF SNOW ATTM FM THAT AREA. WIND AT KIWD IS               
MORE SW WHILE WINDS OVR W LK SUPERIOR SHOW MORE NW DIRECTION.                   
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCING THE SNOW SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE...                    
SHORTWAVE TROF IS IN PROCESS OF CROSSING UPR MI. BEST CHANCE FOR                
MEASURABLE PCPN WILL CONTINUE OVR E SECTIONS AS NW WINDS FLOW OVER              
LK SUPERIOR. MORNING KSAW TAMDAR AND RAOB FM GRB SHOWED MOIST LAYER             
TO AROUND 800MB WITH H85 TEMPS NEAR -5C. PCPN SHOULD PERSIST AS H85             
TEMPS SLIGHTLY FALL THIS AFTN AND MOISTURE IS SLOW TO DEPART. DID               
KEEP IDEA OF ENDING PCPN OVR W HALF THIS AFTN ONCE SHORTWAVE TROF               
PASSES BY AND THERE IS HINT OF SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING UPSTREAM OVR              
MN. PUBLISHED GRIDS OUT AND TEXT ZFPMQT UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS PCPN POTENTIAL WHICH WILL              
FREQUENTLY REVOLVE AROUND LAKE EFFECT PCPN.                                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROF                    
DOMINATING CNTRL CANADA INTO THE CNTRL/WRN CONUS WITH INDICATIONS OF            
A VORTEX REDEVELOPING OVER NRN MANITOBA/NW ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE                   
LIFTING NE WITHIN THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS               
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BROUGHT SOME -RA TO MAINLY THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE            
FCST AREA LAST EVENING. TO THE W...A SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SE ACROSS              
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MT. THIS WILL BE A FEATURE OF INTEREST FRI.                
FARTHER TO THE NW...AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE GULF            
OF ALASKA WAS APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. EVOLUTION OF THIS               
SYSTEM WILL BE A FCST ISSUE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS IT MOVES THRU THE            
LONGWAVE TROF POSITION FROM HUDSON BAY S ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS.                
LAKE EFFECT PCPN HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER ERN              
LAKE SUPERIOR...AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COOL WITH CAA FROM THE NW.              
00Z KINL/CWPL SOUNDINGS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF -7C...SUFFICIENT FOR              
LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH LAKE SUPERIOR SFC WATER TEMPS GENERALLY 8-9C.             
KINL SOUNDING INDICATED INVERSION BASE AT 5.4KFT WHILE IT WAS BASED             
AT 4.6KFT AT CWPL. AIRMASS BLO INVERSION WAS MOIST...FURTHER                    
SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT PCPN DEVELOPMENT.                                        
EXPECT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN/SPRINKLES/FLURRIES TO CONTINUE THIS              
MORNING FOR NW FLOW AFFECTED AREAS DUE TO FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.                
PCPN WILL BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MOIST SUB INVERSION PROFILE                   
ALREADY PRESENT IN THE AIRMASS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE LAKE.                    
HOWEVER...PCPN WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT DUE TO POOR SNOW GROWTH                  
MICROPHYSICS AS TEMPS WITHIN MOIST LAYER ARE GENERALLY ABOVE -10C.              
DID NOT MENTION ANY SNOW OVER THE ERN PART OF THE FCST AREA AS FCST             
SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-BASED ABOVE FREEZING LAYER WELL OVER 1KFT DEEP.              
THIS AFTN...FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH SFC RIDGE               
BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. INCREASINGLY                        
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING                      
HEAT/MOISTURE FLUXES OFF THE LAKE AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR FROM               
THE W PER FCST SOUNDINGS WILL SPELL THE DEMISE OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN              
FROM W TO E LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN. AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT                   
PCPN...MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT               
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE SOLID CLOUD DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE DAY             
WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR.                              
ANY LINGERING STRATOCU SHOULD DEPART EARLY THIS EVENING IN                      
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE              
WILL PROBABLY BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH                   
SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WHICH WILL BE HEADING TO THE MID             
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STILL...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY               
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS. WILL                
THUS FAVOR LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE TONIGHT.                                     
ALTHOUGH FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY                 
TONIGHT WILL PASS WELL S AND SE OF HERE FRI...MODELS STILL INDICATE             
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER LAKES WITH A WEAK SFC LOW            
REFLECTION. IN THIS REGARD...THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD THE                 
NAM SOLUTION. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW AND WEAK MOIST                     
ISENTROPIC ASCENT VIEWED ON 290K SFC (AROUND 700MB) SHOULD BE                   
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT LOW END CHC POPS FOR -SHRA SPREADING W TO E               
FRI AFTN/EVENING. AS SFC LOW TRACKS E FRI NIGHT...CAA GETS UNDERWAY             
WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C PER PREFERRED COOLER GFS                
SOLUTION. SO...EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT -SHRA/-SHSN TO DEVELOP OVER             
THE W DURING THE NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD THEN DEVELOP INTO               
THE ERN FCST AREA SAT AS CAA CONTINUES AROUND SOUTHERN SIDE OF                  
VORTEX WHICH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN OVER ONTARIO BY THAT                
TIME (850MB TEMPS SHOULD BE AROUND -8C ACROSS MOST OF LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY SAT AFTN). AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT PCPN...HAVE KEPT GOING CHC POPS             
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER LAKES.                                
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL REACH THE             
SRN PLAINS SAT AND WILL MOVE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUN. MODEL                 
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS SE OF THE FCST            
AREA AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER HERE. EVEN SO...IT              
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH MID/UPPER                     
TROF/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE AREA. LAKE EFFECT PCPN SHOULD            
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY             
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT (850MB TEMPS -7/-8C).                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
721 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING                
WILL AFFECT TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. TEMPO VIS OF 1SM TO 3SM              
IS EXPECTED IN DOWNPOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH                 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. UPPER                      
ELEVATION LOCATIONS (BGM) AND LAKE SHORE TERMINALS (ITH) WILL                   
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD EARLY MORNING.  DJP                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 624 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND INCLUDE CHC                 
OF EVENING TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF CWA THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL              
LATE EVENING.  RRM                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT - SUNDAY/...                                                
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN              
FAR WRN NY AND PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.               
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 70. LIS HAVE                  
GONE NEGATIVE.                                                                  
LARGER AREA OF RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NE AHEAD OF A                      
DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING LOW IN THE SE US. RAIN TO GET HERE                  
THIS EVENING AND CONTIUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LONG PERIOD OF               
RAIN WILL DROP OVER AN INCH EVERYWHERE WITH A STRIP CLOSE TO 2                  
INCHES FROM SW TO NE ELM TO UCA. THIS STRIP COULD SHIFT SOME                    
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW THE TRACK OF THE                 
LOW WILL BE OUR SE CWA FRI MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SIMILAR                    
TRACKS. FOR ENDING TIME GFS FASTEST MIDDAY WITH NAM IN THE AFTN.                
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ONLY EXPECTED TO RAISE THE MOHAWK AT UTICA TO               
OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER ALREADY RUNNING HIGH WITH DELATA DAM                
FULL. OTHER STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES BUT ARE NOT                
EXPECTED TO FLOOD.                                                              
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI PM...WINDS WILL PICK                
UP ESPECIALLY IN THE E. STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS                  
WILL BRING IN THE COLD AIR FASTER. FRI NGT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE                
WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW. POPS ARE AT 20 PERCENT WITH MARGINAL                
LAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE SHORT SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH WAA ON               
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SFC HIGH BUILDS WITH WEAK UL                 
RIDGING.                                                                        
FOR SUNDAY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF PRECIP. FOR              
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL              
CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS IN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY WITH                
THE NAM HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTN.  TAC                                            
AVIATION /191800Z - 201800Z/...                                                 
CIGS ARE VARYING FROM 030-035 OVER THE VALLEYS TO 015-020 OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS. AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD             
FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AT 18Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY.            
FRONT WILL STALL AND RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD              
OVER THE REGION AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN               
AND LOW IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE S AND W             
TOWARD 18Z AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE NE. -BMW                          
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY/...                                          
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDENCE. PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. SUNDAY NIGHT COLD                
FRONT MOVES OFF THE E COAST WITH COLD ADVECTION CROSSING THE LAKES              
DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS               
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH BY TUE               
FOR SNOW TO MIX INTO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY               
WITH JUST CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVES OFF COAST              
WED WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING AND DIMINISHING            
INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS. -BMW                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-037 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.              
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DJP                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
624 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
UPDATED ZONES/GRIDS TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND INCLUDE CHC                 
OF EVENING TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF CWA THIS EVENING. RUC MODEL                      
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL              
LATE EVENING.  RRM                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 413 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT - SUNDAY/...                                                
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG COLD FRONT IN              
FAR WRN NY AND PA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE                   
FRONT IS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNSTABLE AIR.               
SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARED WITH TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 70. LIS HAVE                  
GONE NEGATIVE.                                                                  
LARGER AREA OF RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NE AHEAD OF A                      
DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING LOW IN THE SE US. RAIN TO GET HERE                  
THIS EVENING AND CONTIUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LONG PERIOD OF               
RAIN WILL DROP OVER AN INCH EVERYWHERE WITH A STRIP CLOSE TO 2                  
INCHES FROM SW TO NE ELM TO UCA. THIS STRIP COULD SHIFT SOME                    
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SFC LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW THE TRACK OF THE                 
LOW WILL BE OUR SE CWA FRI MORNING. MOST MODELS HAVE SIMILAR                    
TRACKS. FOR ENDING TIME GFS FASTEST MIDDAY WITH NAM IN THE AFTN.                
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN ONLY EXPECTED TO RAISE THE MOHAWK AT UTICA TO               
OVER FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER ALREADY RUNNING HIGH WITH DELATA DAM                
FULL. OTHER STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL EXPERIENCE RISES BUT ARE NOT                
EXPECTED TO FLOOD.                                                              
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI PM...WINDS WILL PICK                
UP ESPECIALLY IN THE E. STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS                  
WILL BRING IN THE COLD AIR FASTER. FRI NGT SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE                
WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW. POPS ARE AT 20 PERCENT WITH MARGINAL                
LAKE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE SHORT SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH WAA ON               
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SFC HIGH BUILDS WITH WEAK UL                 
RIDGING.                                                                        
FOR SUNDAY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING OF PRECIP. FOR              
NOW WENT WITH CHC POPS EVERYWHERE. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL              
CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS BRINGS IN RAIN EARLY SUNDAY WITH                
THE NAM HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTN.  TAC                                            
AVIATION /191800Z - 201800Z/...                                                 
CIGS ARE VARYING FROM 030-035 OVER THE VALLEYS TO 015-020 OVER THE              
MOUNTAINS. AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS WILL MOVE             
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD             
FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE AT 18Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY.            
FRONT WILL STALL AND RAIN WILL BECOME STEADIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD              
OVER THE REGION AND CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE             
WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN               
AND LOW IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FROM THE S AND W             
TOWARD 18Z AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE NE. -BMW                          
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY/...                                          
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDENCE. PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED. SUNDAY NIGHT COLD                
FRONT MOVES OFF THE E COAST WITH COLD ADVECTION CROSSING THE LAKES              
DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS               
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ENOUGH BY TUE               
FOR SNOW TO MIX INTO SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY               
WITH JUST CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LOW MOVES OFF COAST              
WED WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUING AND DIMINISHING            
INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THURSDAY BUT STILL BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS. -BMW                                                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ009-037 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.              
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1134 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
WILL ISSUE UPDATE...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUANCE OF FLOOD WATCH               
ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND TO ADD HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN                     
DATABASE/DATABASE PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT/FRI. BASED ON ANTECEDENT                 
CONDITIONS...WHICH INCLUDE HIGH RIVER LEVELS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/S 1             
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...IN ADDITION TO THE PROSPECTS OF AN ADDITIONAL             
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WE HAVE ISSUED THE            
FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES EFFECTIVE FROM 6 AM EDT/FRI TO 6              
AM EDT/SAT.                                                                     
OTHERWISE...IN THE NEAR-TERM...HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON PRECIP ONSET            
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL                 
LATER THIS EVE. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOME SHOWERS ARE              
ALREADY GRAZING EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL              
SHOWERS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM. THUS...DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS             
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AS SHALLOW FRONTAL               
BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SAGS SE.                                                     
AS FOR SKY CONDITIONS...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE                
DEVELOPING JUST S OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH LATEST RUC                     
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BREAKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE                
LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. THUS...KEPT EXPECTED MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO              
PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE...WHICH GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE                     
LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TO UPPER 60S TO THE S.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 315 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT, OVER EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK, WILL SLOWLY             
HEAD EAST, AND STALL OVER THE LISTENING AREA BY LATE TODAY. AN AREA             
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, THEN                
TRACK UP ALONG THE FRONT, JUST TO OUR EAST, ON FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO            
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TONIGHT, LASTING INTO FRIDAY                   
EVENING. ENOUGH COLD AIR AT THE END MIGHT ALLOW THE RAIN TO SWITCH              
BRIEFLY TO SNOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BEFORE ENDING.             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN                 
TOUGH ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM                   
FALLING OUT OF THE 50S. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER INTO TODAY...AND            
BY THE TIME THEY WERE TO BURN OFF, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, WILL LIKELY BE OVERHEAD. WITH PERSISTENT             
CLOUDS, WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF GOING LOWER THAN MAV NOS, BUT NOT             
BY MUCH, AS IT HAS APPARENTLY CAUGHT ON TO THE TREND.                           
WILL KEEP A LOT OF CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE FRONT              
STILL LOOKS TO BECOME ANA AS IT COMES INTO OUR AREA (AS WINDS ALOFT             
ALIGN WITH IT). WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER IN            
THE DAY, AND PROBABLY NOT UNTIL NEAR DARK FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY AND            
POINTS EASTWARD.                                                                
TONIGHT, THE SHORT WAVE, NOW FOUND JUST NORTH OF TEXAS, WILL                    
INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASINGLY                     
BAROCLINIC ZONE. A PRETTY POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE              
FRONT, NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE BEST FRONTOGENTIC FORCING LOOKS              
TO BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. NEVERTHELESS PW VALUES OF 1.5              
INCHES OR MORE, WILL ISENTROPICALLY LIFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION               
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL. THE AIR               
MIGHT BE STILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SWITCH OVER TO SNOW ACROSS            
MAINLY OUR ADIRONDACKS LATER FRIDAY, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS            
VANTAGE POINT LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT. MORE ABOUT THE RAINFALL CAN BE                 
FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGY SECTION.                                                 
BOTH MODELS WIND THE STORM UP QUITE A BIT AS IT REACHES THE GULF OF             
MAINE LATE FRIDAY (THE NAM IS A BIT DEEPER). EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS              
TO PERK UP AND BUFFET THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP               
PLUCK THE INCREASINGLY COLORFUL LEAFS RIGHT OFF THE TREES. AT THIS              
POINT, THE WIND LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA, BUT            
THE DAY CREW NEEDS TO REEXAMINE THE WINDS.                                      
ONE CHANGE WAS TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER TO ALL OUR ZONES FRIDAY               
MORNING. WHILE SBCAPES ARE MARGINAL AT BEST...STRONG DYNAMICS AND               
LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD PRODUCE LOW TOP STORMS, ESPECIALLY S AND E OF             
ALBANY. THERE IS EVEN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE                
STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE, BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO               
HIGHLIGHT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WILL MENTION IN OUR HAZARDOUS                  
WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). BY AFTERNOON, THE WARM AIR SECTOR SHOULD HAVE            
PUSH FURTHER EAST WITH ANY THREAT OF THUNDER ENDING AS COLDER AIR               
BEGINS WORKING IN.                                                              
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY FALL IN SOME PLACES DURING THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY. ATTEMPTED TO BLEND THIS TREND WITH BRIEFLY HOLDING TEMPS S              
AND E OF ALBANY, BEFORE THEY TOO LIKELY FALL LATER ON.                          
LOWER POPS A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT, GOING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN VALLEY               
LOCATIONS AND CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE WRAP            
AROUND. HAVE ENDED ALL PCPN BY 06Z.                                             
NICE WEATHER LOOKS TO FOLLOW SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD            
IN. WITH H8 TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0C (SLIGHT COLDER ON THE GFS             
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE NAM) HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A CATEGORY PER               
BOTH MAV/MET OUTPUT. STILL...IT WILL BE THE NICER OF THE TWO WEEKEND            
DAYS.                                                                           
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...BY SUNDAY, THE NEXT WEATHER              
MAKER, LOOKING MORE LIKE CLIPPER, ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.                 
EARLIER RUNS HAD THIS FEATURE SLOWING DOWN, WHILE ENERGY FROM THE               
SOUTHERN BRANCH BECOME INJECTED INTO IT. BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND                  
LATEST GFS NOW INDICATE THE TWAIN SHALL NEVER MEET, UNTIL WELL                  
OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD MEAN ONLY A CLIPPER TYPE STORM WOULD AFFECT US             
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS ANY SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT              
WOULD SLIDE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. CONSEQUENTLY THE ANTICIPATED            
RAINFALL WOULD LIGHTER. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE POLAR VORTEX,                    
INITIALLY FORECAST TO EAST OF HUDSON BAY, IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE               
OVER OUR HEAD! THIS CHANGE LOOKS A TAD UNREALISTIC AND THEREFORE WE             
WILL NOT TINKER WITH THE EXTENDED, BUT WAIT TO SEE IF THE NEXT SET              
OF RUNS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THESE CHANGES.                                    
AVIATION...CLOUD DECK PERSISTS OVER THE AREA UNDER STRONG                       
INVERSION. LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS OF 3500 FEET. MAY GET            
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SHOULD HAVE SOME                     
IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH OVC DECK GOING TO BKN BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE            
STREAMING IN AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO                
MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS RAIN MOVES AND                   
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.                                           
FIRE WEATHER...FUELS REMAIN EXCESSIVELY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION                 
WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO DRY FURTHER. RH VALUES WILL ONLY            
DROP TO AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHER ACROSS THE                    
MOUNTAINS...THEN RISE BACK TO BETWEEN 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT.                   
TOMORROW...WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER THAN              
TODAY. A S WIND AROUND 10 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL GRADUALLY                
BACK TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25                 
KNOTS BY LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH A                   
GRADUAL SUBSIDING OF A GUSTY NW WIND.                                           
HYDROLOGY...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY ARE              
THE AREAS OF CONCERN AFTER RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST RAINS TUESDAY AND             
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIDESPREAD                 
SOAKING RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT                 
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES               
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE GFS HAS THE               
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES...WITH                
AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE WRF HAS 1 1/2 TO            
2 1/2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY THE CATSKILLS              
AND CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WESTWARD. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR                 
SOUTHERN HERKIMER AND FULTON COUNTIES ARE THE LOWEST FOR 24-HOUR                
PERIOD WITH ONLY 2 1/2 INCHES...SO EXPECTED QPF APPROACHING THAT                
VALUE. LOOKING AT MORE RUNOFF WITH THIS SYSTEM AS GROUND WET FROM               
LAST ONE. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK STATEMENT (ESF)            
AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAINFALL LATE            
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084 FROM 6 AM               
     FRIDAY TO 6 AM SATURDAY.                                                   
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KL                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1031 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO GRIDS/TEXT TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP WORDING. ALSO HAD TO              
ADJUST SKY COVER FOR PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS THE WRN AND              
CNTL ZONES. RUC AND WRF SUGGEST THIS AREA COULD HANG AROUND AS                  
LATE AS 18Z/19Z. DECREASING CLOUDS OR CLEARING WORDING DROPPED                  
INTO THE ZONE TEXT FOR THOSE AREAS. STRATUS MAY END UP HAVING A                 
SMALL EFFECT ON TEMPS FOR TODAY...BUT FOR NOW TRENDS SEEMED GOOD                
ENOUGH TO LEAVE ALONE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW              
WEST OF JAMES BAY AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH                
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING THROUGH              
WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV FROM SRN MN INTO IA. AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SE MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK            
TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV ALONG WITH              
UPPER LEVEL DIV VCNTY LEFT EXIT OF 65-70 KT 300 MB JET AND 290K-295K            
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MOST PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH             
A 120 KT 300 MB JET WAS PLUNGING SE FROM BC THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.            
AT THE SFC...A WEAK RDG EXTENDED FROM IL TO W UPPER MI AHEAD OF LOW             
PRES LOCATED OVER NW MN. RADAR SHOWED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM               
THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW TOWARD GRAND MARAIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING NE              
AS CBL WINDS BACK AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.                                   
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE/OBS INDICATED PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH               
STRONG 850 MB INVERSION.                                                        
TODAY...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK/MODERATE 700-300 MB                       
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS UPPER               
MI. HOWEVER...MDLS ALSO SUGGEST THAT SINCE THE SFC-850 MB TROUGH AND            
ASSOCIATED LOWER LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS...THE PROMINENT 850-700            
DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST...REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN.                       
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 285K-290K                         
LIFT/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS MAINLY W AND S                
UPPER MI. SO...TIMING AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK. EVEN THOUGH                    
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES AND FREEZING HEIGHTS POINT TO MAINLY                  
RAIN...WET-BULB TEMPS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH SO THAT MIX WITH SNOW              
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.                              
TONIGHT...MDLS BRING THE TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 12Z. BY LATE             
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C WITH DEVELOPING               
NNW FLOW ALONG WITH 900-800 FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN                  
CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE OVER THE WEST THIRD. OVER THE                
REST OF THE CWA...ANOTHER VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG FORCING              
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROF ALSO WARRANT              
AT LEAST 20-30 POPS.                                                            
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...MDL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT AS                 
THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THE SHRTWV(ORIGINATING OVER            
THE NRN ROCKIES)AND RESULTING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE STRONGER              
AND FARTHER NW. THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND            
LARGE MAJORITY OF SREF(PER HPC)...WAS PREFERRED. SO...EXPECT THE                
SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN S OF UPPER MI OR ONLY BRUSH THE ERN PORTION OF              
THE CWA. OTHERWISE...BAND OF WEAK QVECTOR CONV AND FGEN WILL KEEP               
CHANCES OF LGT PCPN GOING SAT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR               
-8C (LEADING TO LK-850 MB DELTA/T AROUND 17C) AND INVERSION HGT                 
PROGGED NEAR 800 MB(6K-7K FT)...MAINLY ACYC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE/                
WEAK QVECTOR DIV/ BY SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE               
EFFECT PCPN. SO...GOING CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.                        
SUN...THE GLOBAL MDLS BRING THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY TOWARD THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SFC-700 MB MOISTURE AND CLIMBING                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES                 
POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR -7C.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
347 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK WAVE WITH BACK EDGE OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA MOVING ACROSS AREA              
THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. BAND OF SHOWERS                      
CORRELATING FAIRLY WELL WITH 06Z RUC FORECAST OF 290 ISEN SURFACE.              
BEST SATURATION WITH THIS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO                    
WESTERN WI THIS MORNING. MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BEHIND THIS             
BUT WOULD EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH                  
STRONG WAVE HEADING TOWARD WY. SOME ISENT LIFT STARTS AHEAD OF                  
THIS OVER FAR S MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A SIG WAVE AND               
THERE WAS SOME LIGHTNING AS IT PASSED ACROSS ID LAST NIGHT. STILL               
LOOKS LIKE A CLOSE CALL WITH THIS..BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A MID                  
RANGE POP ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. QUICK               
LOOK AT 06Z NAM SHOWING GOOD LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IA. LOW                  
LEVEL THICKNESS ON THE HIGH SIDE INITIALLY BUT WILL KEEP WITH THE               
TREND OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS GUID               
TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE HIGH TODAY IN A FEW SPOTS..BUT IF THERE IS A                
FAR AMOUNT OF SUN FOR A WHILE..THEN THERE MAY BE MORE TEMPS CLOSE TO            
50. FAIRLY STRONG QG DIV BEHIND SYSTEM OVER W HALF OF CWA ON                    
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON CLOUDS SOME..BUT COULD                 
END UP BEING LESS CLOUDS. LATER FORECASTS CAN ASSESS THIS. COLD                 
AIR FILLS IN ON SUNDAY WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS              
AS WELL. TEMPS MAY BE MORE TOWARD UPPER 30S FOR AFTERNOON.                      
LONGER TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                            
00Z GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN...             
AT LEAST EARLY ON.  UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS EAST                  
TUE/WED PERIOD...ALLOWING SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES/MODERATION TO            
MOVE INTO THE AREA.  SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL PROVIDE COLD            
AND DRY START TO THE PERIOD/MON/ WITH FORECAST HIGHS MODERATING                 
THROUGH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  NEXT                   
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY            
AND DIGS RAPIDLY SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF                
NEXT WEEK.  THIS WOULD FAVOR A FAIRLY LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT             
INTO THE MIDDLE PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPR/DWE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1051 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
KLWX 88D SHOWING LINE OF SHRA MOVING ACRSS NE PORT OF CWA ATTM.                 
SFC OBS ARE GUSTNG UP TO 25-35 KTS BEHIND FRNT...WHICH MOVED THRU               
IAD DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES. I WILL BE DECREASING SKY COVER TDY              
AS FRONT HAS MOVED THRU MUCH OF THE CWA AND XPCTNG SCT-BKN STRATO               
CU BEHIND IT. FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM PROFILES...ATTM AM NOT                    
XPCTNG WIND ADSRY CRIT FOR GUSTS (40KTS) ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE              
TO THIS THRESHOLD THIS AFT IN THE DCA-BWI-APG CORRIDOR AND N CHES               
BAY.                                                                            
AM NOT EXPECTING ANY CSTL FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT AS LEVELS ARE                
BLO CRIT AND JUST MAY REACH MINOR THRESHOLD AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 347 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 03Z SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK            
SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. A SECONDARY                 
DEVELOPING WAVE WAS OVER WEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS             
AT 06Z WERE IN THE LOWER 60S. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION                
ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWS A SPLIT DRY SLOT MOVING NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY AND               
TENNESSEE.                                                                      
THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS             
MORNING. THE DEEPENING WAVE IN WEST VIRGINIA...INCREASING LOW AND               
MID LEVEL JET...AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER               
VALLEY WILL COMBINE FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS            
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO                 
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. WITH LIMITED SURFACE                    
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF                
DAY...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. STORMS SHOULD BE                
ISOLATED AND RATHER SHALLOW. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL                
WINDS...STORMS WILL NOT NEED TO BE THAT DEEP TO USHER STRONGER                  
WINDS.                                                                          
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES              
EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO             
FALL BY NOON. MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED LATE THIS                 
MORNING. BY THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART WILL HAVE              
MADE THEIR WAY EAST. THIS WILL SET UP NICELY FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL             
COOLING NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S             
BY MORNING.                                                                     
ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT             
THAT GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER WILL                 
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS THE COLD            
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE                  
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY                 
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD            
BE EAST OF BALTIMORE TERMINALS BY NOON. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET             
AND DOWNSLOPING WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30             
AND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH            
WITH SUNSET.                                                                    
COASTAL FLOODING...                                                             
TIDES ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL            
CONTINUE TO RUN BETWEEN A HALF FOOT AND A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL               
VALUES THROUGH MID DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WEST AND            
LATER NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TIDES TO RETURN TO NORMAL             
VALUES BY AFTERNOON.                                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER BECKLEY WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY                  
MORNING WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE                
MIDWEST AT THAT TIME. MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUD BLOWOFF FROM THAT SYSTEM            
SAT AND SAT NIGHT HERE... BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. SHOULD BE A PLEASANT               
SLIGHTLY COOL OCTOBER DAY ON SATURDAY.                                          
CHANGES COME ON SUNDAY AS FIRST A PREFRONTAL TROF MOVES THRU SUN                
MORN...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT SUN EVE. THAT WILL BRING SOME                 
SHOWERS...AND THEN SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION AS 850MB TEMPS DROP               
FROM 6C ABOVE SUNDAY MIDDAY TO AROUND 4C BELOW MONDAY MIDDAY. COULD             
EVEN BE SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT ON               
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW. A WEAK REINFORCING TROF               
MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.                                                    
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE              
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                          
MARINE...                                                                       
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND            
CHESAPEAKE BAY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL                 
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOLLOWING THE GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE             
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS                
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY                        
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE                
SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES ACROSS            
THE WATERS WILL IMPROVE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.                           
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THAT...              
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH ON MON AND TUE WITH THE                
INITIAL SHOT AND THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR DURING THE EARLY              
WEEK.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ530>537 UNTIL 8 PM FRIDAY.                         
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>537 FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LEE                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1115 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OF LGT RAIN/SNOW NOW INTO FAR W LK SUPERIOR BUT OVERALL IS                 
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO EAST. COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE NW OF CWA                
WITHIN BROAD TROFFING CENTERED OVR HUDSON BAY. LEADING WAVE IS OVR              
NE MN AND IS GENERATING AREA OF RAIN/SNOW. OTHER SHORTWAVE IS                   
DROPPING S INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS WAVE WILL HELP KICK THE MN WAVE TO             
THE SE AND PUSH LGT PCPN INTO W CWA BY LATE TODAY. GOING FCST IS                
FINE CONCERNING THAT SCENARIO. LGT W WINDS AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -5C             
WITH SOME MOISTURE AROUND H85 PER TAMDAR SOUNDINGS IS YIELDING SOME             
LGT LK EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FM KEWEEENAW INTO E LK SUPERIOR PER             
WEAK RADAR ECHOES AND SPOTTER REPORT FM MOHAWK IN KEWEENAW COUNTY.              
ADDED SOME POPS OVER THESE AREAS TO START AFTN. ALSO INCREASED POPS             
OVR KEWEENAW BY MID AFTN AS FAVORABLE LK EFFECT SETUP REMAINS IN                
PLACE BENEATH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPR LEVEL FORCING AS SHORTWAVE             
TO NW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE LK SUPERIOR REGION. TEMPS/WINDS/SKY               
NEEDED ONLY A FEW TWEAKS.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW              
WEST OF JAMES BAY AND A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS WITH                
NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. A BAND OF MID CLOUDS WAS MOVING THROUGH              
WI AND UPPER MI AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV FROM SRN MN INTO IA. AN AREA             
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SE MANITOBA INTO FAR NRN MN WAS SUPPORTED BY WEAK            
TO MODERATE 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV ALONG WITH              
UPPER LEVEL DIV VCNTY LEFT EXIT OF 65-70 KT 300 MB JET AND 290K-295K            
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MOST PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV ASSOCIATED WITH             
A 120 KT 300 MB JET WAS PLUNGING SE FROM BC THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.            
AT THE SFC...A WEAK RDG EXTENDED FROM IL TO W UPPER MI AHEAD OF LOW             
PRES LOCATED OVER NW MN. RADAR SHOWED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN FROM               
THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW TOWARD GRAND MARAIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING NE              
AS CBL WINDS BACK AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.                                   
OTHERWISE...SATELLITE/OBS INDICATED PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS BENEATH               
STRONG 850 MB INVERSION.                                                        
TODAY...THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOW WEAK/MODERATE 700-300 MB                       
QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS UPPER               
MI. HOWEVER...MDLS ALSO SUGGEST THAT SINCE THE SFC-850 MB TROUGH AND            
ASSOCIATED LOWER LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS...THE PROMINENT 850-700            
DRY LAYER WILL PERSIST...REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR ANY PCPN.                       
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE ENOUGH 285K-290K                         
LIFT/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS MAINLY W AND S                
UPPER MI. SO...TIMING AND POPS WERE SCALED BACK. EVEN THOUGH                    
1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES AND FREEZING HEIGHTS POINT TO MAINLY                  
RAIN...WET-BULB TEMPS WILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH SO THAT MIX WITH SNOW              
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.                              
TONIGHT...MDLS BRING THE TROUGH INTO CNTRL UPPER MI BY 12Z. BY LATE             
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -6C WITH DEVELOPING               
NNW FLOW ALONG WITH 900-800 FGEN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PCPN                  
CHANCES WITH THE HIGHEST POPS LATE OVER THE WEST THIRD. OVER THE                
REST OF THE CWA...ANOTHER VORT LOBE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK QG FORCING              
ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROF ALSO WARRANT              
AT LEAST 20-30 POPS.                                                            
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...MDL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT AS                 
THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM SUGGEST THE SHRTWV(ORIGINATING OVER            
THE NRN ROCKIES)AND RESULTING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE STRONGER              
AND FARTHER NW. THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF AND            
LARGE MAJORITY OF SREF(PER HPC)...WAS PREFERRED. SO...EXPECT THE                
SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN S OF UPPER MI OR ONLY BRUSH THE ERN PORTION OF              
THE CWA. OTHERWISE...BAND OF WEAK QVECTOR CONV AND FGEN WILL KEEP               
CHANCES OF LGT PCPN GOING SAT. ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO NEAR               
-8C (LEADING TO LK-850 MB DELTA/T AROUND 17C) AND INVERSION HGT                 
PROGGED NEAR 800 MB(6K-7K FT)...MAINLY ACYC FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE/                
WEAK QVECTOR DIV/ BY SAT NIGHT WILL NOT BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR LAKE               
EFFECT PCPN. SO...GOING CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK.                        
SUN...THE GLOBAL MDLS BRING THE MID LVL CLOSED LOW SLOWLY TOWARD THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SFC-700 MB MOISTURE AND CLIMBING                  
INVERSION HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LES                 
POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN NEAR -7C.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
DISCUSSION...JLB                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1024 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
BASED ON THE LATEST RUC DATA AND TAMDAR... LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION             
CONTINUES. TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR 6000 WITH            
850 MB TEMPERATURE NEAR -5C AT 12Z.  THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE               
EFFECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART ARE MORE DRIZZLE            
THAN ANYTHING. SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TILL 16Z AND THE                
INVERSION HEIGHT SHOULD STAY NEAR 6000 FT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON I             
EXPECT CLOUDS AND PATCH DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND             
WEST OF US-131 TILL THE COLD ADVECTION ENDS... NEAR 16Z ...NOON.                
AFTER THAT THERE ARE ENOUGH HIGH AND MID CLOUDS UPSTREAM TO KEEP THE            
FORECAST CLOUDY THROUGH TONIGHT. I LOWERED THE HIGHS A TOUCH AS A               
RESULT OF THAT.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1052 AM CDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE            
CWA IS STILL OVERCAST AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINGING COOL AIR INTO            
THE AREA. ADJUST THE CLOUD COVER TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND. WILL LIKELY            
LOWER TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE FROM 3-5 DEGREES. LEFT TEMPS SLIGHTLY             
HIGHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST...LOOKING AT RUC 850 ANALYSIS THE FLOW WAS             
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST TEMPS A FEW EXTRA             
DEGREES INTO THE LOWER 60S. WENT WITH UPPER 50S NORTHEAST... NEAR 60            
CENTRAL AND WEST AND LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST. WILL REMOVE ANY MORNING               
WORDING. WILL SEND UPDATE SHORTLY.                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY BREAKING UP ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO                
LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MEI/GTR/HBG AROUND 1500-2000FT.              
BEYOND 21Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MORE                 
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       66  42  75  52 /   0   0   6  78                                  
MERIDIAN      67  38  76  52 /   0   0   2  70                                  
VICKSBURG     66  42  75  53 /   0   0  10  78                                  
HATTIESBURG   70  44  77  58 /   0   0   6  82                                  
NATCHEZ       67  43  77  56 /   0   0  20  85                                  
GREENVILLE    65  41  72  49 /   0   0   4  47                                  
GREENWOOD     65  39  73  48 /   0   0   3  50                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/99/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
922 AM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION                     
EARLY THIS MORNING ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE              
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BENIGN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST UNTIL                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COOL TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                   
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR MARKED CLEARING AND DISTINCTLY DRIER               
AIR THAT HAS INFILTRATED EASTERN WASHINGTON OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF              
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. MAINTAINED POPS MAINLY OVER SHOSHONE COUNTY                 
AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN             
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH DECENT DIFFLUENCE NOTED AHEAD OF IT                 
AND MODEST OMEGAS PER THE RUC. SOME GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED                
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE RUC OVER NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND THE                  
NORTHERN IDAHO PANHANDLE...HOWEVER WITH RH VALUES ABOVE 850 MB                  
MEAGER AT BEST...DID LITTLE BUT ADD THE CHANCE FOR SOME CLOUD                   
DEVELOPMENT. RAISED TEMPERATURES MOST EVERYWHERE AS GOOD                        
INSOLATION SHOULD GET US UP TO AT LEAST MOS AS COLD ADVECTION                   
BEGINS TO WANE THIS AFTERNOON. ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /FRIES                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU               
06Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LCL IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG IN THE            
VALLEYS NORTH OF SPOKANE THRU 17Z THIS MORNING. RIDGING BUILDS OVER             
THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN             
THE VALLEYS N AND E OF A LINE FROM KOMK-KGEG-KLWS. FX                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        58  34  51  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
COEUR D'ALENE  57  33  51  30  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
PULLMAN        58  34  52  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
LEWISTON       60  38  56  36  58  38 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
COLVILLE       55  31  53  31  56  27 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
SANDPOINT      55  31  48  29  52  29 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
KELLOGG        54  31  51  29  55  33 /  10   0   0   0   0  10                 
MOSES LAKE     66  33  60  34  60  34 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
WENATCHEE      67  41  61  37  61  40 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
OMAK           68  35  59  37  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
302 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...                                               
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH TO THE                     
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE VIS SHOWS STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE                     
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. CLEARING HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF               
OF THE CWA...COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WINDS                    
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE 925MB DEWPOINT RUC ANALYSIS MATCHES               
UP VERY WELL WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SO USED THIS FOR TIMING THE                 
EXIT OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST HAVE               
SUFFERED FROM THE CLOUDS AS WELL...SO THESE LOCATIONS ALREADY                   
HAVE A HEAD START ON THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                        
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TO THE              
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SWLY...SKIES WILL BE               
CLEAR...AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. NAM AND GFS               
ALSO INDICATING WARM-AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT...SO MOISTURE MAY                  
INCREASE SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN/SWRN CWA...TOWARD                 
TOMORROW MORNING. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WIDESPREAD                  
DENSE FOG EVENT...BUT THINK IT IS OVERDOING THE MOISTURE. MAV                   
GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING A MARGINAL HAZE/MIST EVENT WITH MVFR                      
VISIBILITIES. WILL GO IN BETWEEN WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT               
TOWARD MORNING CWA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID                 
30S WITH URBAN AREAS HAVING WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.             
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING                    
NICELY UNDER A SOUTHERLY WIND. WITH GOOD WARM-AIR ADVECTION TAKING              
PLACE...SHOULD REACH THE LOW 60S NE TO THE UPPER 60S SW...CLOSER                
TO MAV NUMBERS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD                  
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.                                   
AL                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                                
UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO IDAHO WILL              
DEVELOP A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MOVE             
EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS               
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE                   
LIMITED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE               
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AROUND THE SURFACE CLOD             
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA.             
FOR THIS REASON WILL ONLY MENTION CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT                
BEHIND THIS...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S BY                  
MONDAY MORNING.                                                                 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....                                                      
EASTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO               
THE EAST COAST DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS             
WILL PUT THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BACK IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW AS ANOTHER              
DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE LOWER            
ATMOSPHERE WE WILL SEE A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS AN AREA OF LOW                  
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE H8 FLOW WILL REMAIN              
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SO THE GULF DOES NOT COMPLETELY OPEN UP AND                
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME               
OVERRIDING INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR              
THE FRIDAY TIME FRAME...PERHAPS SOONER. TEMPERATURES AT THE                     
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW                 
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER BUT WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AS                 
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.                                                         
JA                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
350 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM FORECAST...19Z WATER VAPOR/SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS               
MID LEVEL POLAR VORTEX SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WITH LARGE             
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS. SEVERAL            
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND PARENT CIRCULATION...ONE OF            
WHICH IS CROSSING THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER DROPPING INTO            
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO                  
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH ILL DEFINED LOW OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA                   
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE. FARTHER                           
WEST...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED 110KT 250MB JET STREAK DIVING                   
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST (REMNANTS FROM WHICH WAS                
ONCE EASTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON SOULIK). LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS STARTING            
TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL                     
DIFLUENCE REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES. CLOSER TO HOME...LAKE              
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...AT TIMES MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER                    
ELEVATIONS...CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST LOWER               
THIS AFTERNOON AS 1000-850MB WINDS BACK TO WEST/WEST SOUTHWEST.                 
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY CENTER ON LINGERING LAKE EFFECT              
POTENTIAL TONIGHT THEN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AS             
INTERMOUNTAIN/HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM EJECTS EAST TOWARDS REGION.                    
TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED MENTION OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN              
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE OF THE NORTHWEST            
LOWER AND FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS                  
EVENING. INITIAL 1000-850MB WEST/WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO               
BACK OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER 06Z. MARGINAL              
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY REMAINS THIS EVENING AS 850MB TEMPERATURES                
GRADUALLY WARM TO -1C TO -3C BY LATE TONIGHT. LIMITING FACTORS                  
REMAIN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT APPROX 850MB AND GENERAL SYNOPTIC                
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE. FOR LATER                 
TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONFINE ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT              
TO THE OPEN WATER. HOWEVER...WEAK 295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINS                
AHEAD OF APPROACHING MINNESOTA LOW. WILL MENTION 30 POPS FOR ALL BUT            
NORTHEAST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER WHICH ARE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM                
ASCENT REGION. WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WARMEST MET GUIDANCE GIVEN             
EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO              
THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN ALL RAIN TONIGHT             
WITH >1.5KFT SURFACE MELTING LAYER AND +2C WARM TONGUE AT 950MB.                
SATURDAY...MINNESOTA LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN            
LAKES...LAYING OUT A TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT FROM                   
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INTERMOUNTAIN SHORTWAVE              
AND JET STREAK ROUND BASE OF TROUGH...INITIATING SECONDARY                      
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER MISSOURI. SYSTEM                 
FORECASTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP                        
FRONT...INCREASING WAA/295K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE UPPER                   
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 00Z SUNDAY...GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER             
AND HAS LOW POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE NAM-WRF HAS            
LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CORRESPONDING QPF FIELDS ALSO INDICATIVE            
OF INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS...WITH GFS OVERSPREADING MEASURABLE RAINFALL            
OVER ALL AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 BY LATE EVENING WHILE NAM-WRF HAS BEST             
CHANCE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST ZONES OF FORECAST AREA. TENDED TO TAKE             
A BLENDED SOLUTION...INTRODUCING CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS DURING THE               
MORNING WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS SOUTH ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.                 
OVERALL MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION FROM THE GULF RATHER LIMITED AS                 
SPEED OF SYSTEM PREVENTS APPRECIABLE RETURN FLOW.                               
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM SHOULD            
PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW                 
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.                       
MSB                                                                             
.LATER PERIODS...MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFICULTY WITH THE              
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS            
THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  ALTHOUGH SLOWER TRENDS             
CONTINUE WITH THE GFS/NAM...TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE                  
NAM/UKMET ON THE SLOWER SIDE...AND THE SREF/GFS IN THE FASTER CAMP              
(PER HPC DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION).  HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE WITH THIS             
SYSTEM...BUT NOT SOLD AS MUCH WITH THE NAM SOLUTION...BECAUSE OF THE            
DIFFERENCES IN LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE              
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELDS.  THIS DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE AN IMPACT             
ON TIMING THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW...WHICH IS QUITE                    
PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT.  THE COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE              
LOW WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE THE              
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY KICKS OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.                     
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM             
WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND              
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  WITH THE ONGOING TIMING            
ISSUES STILL NEEDING TO BE RESOLVED...WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE             
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM (EG. PRECIP TYPE)...HAVE MORE OR LESS BROAD              
BRUSHED THINGS.  ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER OVER THE LAST              
FEW RUNS AS A WHOLE...NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  BOTH MODELS SHOW             
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WELL LESS              
THAN 10MB OVERSPREADING THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY                 
NIGHT.  HOW FAR NORTH DEPENDS ON THE MODEL (WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTION            
ALLOWING THE ISENTROPIC LIFT TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH). THEN THE LOW               
WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER AND APPROACH THE THUMB BY THE 12Z TO            
15Z RANGE.  TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND            
PLENTY OF 850-700MB FGEN FORCING WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO                
FALL.  SO BY TAKING A COMPROMISE...HAVE GONE LIKELY SOUTH OF A TVC              
TO APN LINE AND CHANCE TO THE NORTH.  PRECIP TYPE IS ANOTHER CONCERN            
SINCE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO ADVANCE FARTHER              
NORTH.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS ALL                
RAIN SOUTH OF THE STRAITS WITH AN ABOVE 0C WARM LAYER OF 3K-4KFT                
ABOVE THE SURFACE (KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER). THEN            
AS COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE LOW...850MB TEMPS COOL IN THE              
-2C TO -4C (DELTA T'S 13-15C) OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN LAKE              
MICHIGAN AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH.  WITH COOLING TEMPS...HAVE                 
MENTIONED A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW LOWER FROM 06-12Z.             
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
CWA...AND HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW PRESENT AS THE LOW               
CROSSES LAKE HURON.   PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN            
BEHIND THE LOW SO SHOWERS/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SNOW APPEARS GOOD.                 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER                 
ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW SHORTWAVES TO                   
SWEEP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  850MB TEMPERATURES WILL                  
CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -7C RANGE WHILE 850-700MB RH VALUES                  
REMAIN GREATER THAN 70 PCT.  WITH WINDS WNW-NW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS            
INCREASING FROM ABOUT 4KFT BY 00Z MON TO 7KFT BY 00Z TUE...SNOW                 
SHOWERS ARE THE WAY TO GO RIGHT NOW SUNDAY NIGHT.  WILL NOT GO                  
LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT MONDAY LOOKS SNOWY AT THE MOMENT                      
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS (MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COASTS ON                   
MONDAY).                                                                        
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OVERALL PATTERN UNDERGOES MAJOR CHANGES              
OVER THIS PERIOD FROM COLDER AND UNSETTLED TO A MORE WARMER AND                 
TRANQUIL REGIME.  MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS RIDGING BREAKING DOWN OVER              
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AS THE STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT            
LAKES FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO THE                
SOUTHERN TIP OF GREENLAND BY 00Z FRIDAY.  SO FAR THE START OF THE               
PERIOD...LINGERING UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN              
IN PLACE WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES AROUND 530 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS             
IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL THEREFORE            
KEEP THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE             
CWA...AND A MIX ALONG THE GREAT LAKES COASTLINES. HIGH PRESSURE                 
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES            
MODERATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL REMOVE POPS WEDNESDAY ONWARD                
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND HIGH PRESSURE AT              
THE SURFACE...ACCORDING TO THE NCEP ENSEMBLE AND GFS. FLATTEN                   
RIDGING HANGS ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  MODELS SHOW A LARGE            
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHOSE AMPLITUDE IS QUITE                
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL LARGELY              
DETERMINE HOW MUCH RIDGING WE SEE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND HOW                
MUCH WE WARM UP.                                                                
MPC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA                                             
215 PM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC                    
NORTHWEST STARTING TONIGHT. THE BENIGN RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST               
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COOL TROUGH DROPS IN FROM THE                        
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POLAR JET AXIS CENTERED               
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CWA...SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE                
HAS HELPED MODEST MUCAPES AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MANIFESTED AS               
NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ON THE GFS                 
AND RUC TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY               
OVER THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND SHOSHONE COUNTY IN PARTICULAR.                   
OUTSIDE OF THAT...A FEW TERRAIN BASED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR               
THE CASCADE CREST AND OKANOGAN HIGHLANDS...NEITHER OF WHICH WERE                
UNANTICIPATED. SHOWER ACTIVITY DIED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...AND                
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF              
DAYTIME HEATING...WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES...AND              
THE LOSS OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF               
THE CWA IN THE 290-300K LAYER. A CLEAR NIGHT SEEMS TO BE IN STORE               
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS               
THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO A SLACKENING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT                    
ACROSS THE CWA. ADDITIONALLY...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND INVERSIONS               
SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AVAILABLE                  
MOMENTUM ALOFT...BELIEVE DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT                 
WILL BE GREATLY REDUCED TONIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...WITH STILL WEAK              
COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING THROUGH THE BASIN AND DOWN THE OKANOGAN                
VALLEY...BELIEVE WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO REDUCE FOG                   
CHANCES. ELSEWHERE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING                     
UNDERNEATH A WEAK INVERSION THAT WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...FUELED BY              
THE RECENT RAINS AND GOOD SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT.                                
GOING FORWARD...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST TOMORROW AND              
GOOD INSOLATION WILL LIKELY WIPEOUT THE MORNING FOG THAT DOES                   
DEVELOP RATHER QUICKLY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND          
WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW...SO TEMPERATURES WILL STICK NEAR TO                    
TODAY'S HIGHS.                                                                  
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING                
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR A LARGE                   
PORTION OF THE CWA. GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG                     
INVERSION SETS UP OVERNIGHT...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ONLY A               
COUPLE DEGREES...HOLDING LOW LEVEL RH VALUES UP OVERNIGHT BELOW                 
THE INVERSION. BELIEVE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN LOWER                 
ELEVATIONS NEARLY CWA-WIDE GIVEN LOWER FORECAST WINDS...STRONG                  
INVERSIONS...STILL HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE                
OF ANY HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING DOWN. /FRIES                                  
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THROUGH            
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL              
BRING ONE MORE DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.             
THE MORNING WILL START OUT ON THE COOL SIDE WITH AREAS OF RADIATIONAL           
FOG. BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE           
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES AND CRASH INTO THE RIDGE. NOT A           
LOT OF MOISTURE OR DYNAMICS WITH THIS SHORT WAVE BUT SOME LOW END               
POPS WERE KEPT IN THE NORTHERN HIGHLANDS TO COVER. THIS DISTURBANCE             
WILL ACT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND OPEN THE DOOR FOR A MORE                   
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. /TOBIN                   
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME               
INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AN UNSETTLED PERIOD                
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS               
THROUGH THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CASCADES SHOULD LIMIT                
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE                     
CASCADE CREST...BLUE MOUNTAINS...CAMAS PRAIRIE...AND IDAHO                      
PANHANDLE WILL SEE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES.              
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO...SNOW LEVELS WILL                
ALSO DROP DOWN TO NEAR 4500-5000 FEET DURING THE DAY AND 3000-                  
4000 FEET AT NIGHT. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL HIGH                     
PRESSURE WILL NOSE TOWARDS THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF SHOW PRESSURE                    
GRADIENTS LESSENING DURING THIS PERIOD IMPLYING LITTLE IN THE WAY               
OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AS TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHEN DURING                 
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THUS...WARM UP ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD           
BE SLOW IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WITH A STRONGER WARMING TREND                
MORE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS. JW                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU               
18Z SAT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG                 
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTH OF KGEG. /FRIES                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SPOKANE        33  56  31  59  32  60 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
COEUR D'ALENE  32  56  30  58  31  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
PULLMAN        34  56  31  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
LEWISTON       38  59  36  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
COLVILLE       31  55  31  56  29  57 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
SANDPOINT      31  53  29  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
KELLOGG        31  55  29  57  30  58 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
MOSES LAKE     33  64  33  65  34  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
WENATCHEE      41  64  37  65  38  66 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
OMAK           35  62  35  63  31  64 /   0   0   0   0  10  10                 
&&                                                                              
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
WA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa