FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL                                            
1015 PM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
CURRENTLY...                                                                    
SURFACE PRESSURE ARE RISING REGIONALLY...AND WINDS HAVE RESPONDED AS            
FORECAST WITH NOTICEABLE INCREASES SINCE SUNDOWN. UPPER KEYS                    
REPORTING SITES INDICATE WINDS THERE...WHICH WERE OUT-OF-LINE TOO               
LIGHT EARLIER...ARE NOW BLOWING FROM THE NORTH NEAR 20 KT...SAME AS             
OTHER MID AND LOWER KEYS SITES. NW FLORIDA BAY PLATFORM ONLY REPORTS            
WINDS 10 KT PAST HOUR...BUT ON THE OTHER HAND...FLAMINGO ON THE                 
MAINLAND COAST HAS SUDDENLY PICKED UP GUSTS TO 16 KT THIS HOUR.                 
FINALLY...TO OUR NORTH WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG AT FOWEY ROCK THIS                
HOUR...NORTH 26 KT GUSTS TO 32 KT. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CIRRUS FLOW               
STILL OVERHEAD...WITH UPSTREAM CIRRUS COMING AT US FROM THE GULF AND            
ACROSS MEXICO. TEMPS CONTINUE TO HOVER AT 59-60F...SINCE SUNDOWN.               
OVERNIGHT...                                                                    
1030 PM COASTAL WATERS FORECAST CONTAINS NO CHANGES...JUST                      
ELIMINATION OF "EARLY" TRANSITIONAL WORDING. LATEST 18Z MESOETA/GFS             
AND RUC TOO...CONTINUE WITH INDICATIONS OF INCREASED N WINDS TURNING            
MORE TO NE TOWARD SUNRISE BUT MAINTAINING SPEEDS NEAR 20 KT.                    
PUBLIC ZONES WILL NOT BE UPDATED. ALL IS GOOD.                                  
.EYW...SCA ALL WATERS.                                                          
C.B.                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1005 PM CST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
THANKS TO DVN FOR SUPPORING US TODAY. THE ETA NAILED THE H8 THERMAL             
PATTERN THIS EVENING...BTR THAN THE AVN AND RUC. WE ARE 50 DEGREES              
AT 3500 FEET WHICH IS QUITE IMPRSV FOR THE COLDEST TIME OF YEAR. STG            
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ON THE HORIZON TMR AS A VRY STG H8 BNDRY               
SETS UP IN FAR NRN MO/XTRM SRN IA. NEW RUNS HAVE NEARLY DOUBLED THE             
QPF...WHICH SHOULD STILL OK CONSIDERING HOW OVERDONE THE ETA QPF HAS            
BEEN LATELY. STILL SOMETHING NOT TO DISPUTE LOOKING AT ALL THE HI               
RES MDL RUNS FM 12Z. HAVE SLIPPED THE ADVISORY TWO TIERS S FOR TMR.             
REMOVED THE SNOW MENTION WITH SLEET N OF HIWAY 30 AT TIMES. MORE                
TIMING INFO IS ALRDY IN THE ADVISORY.                                           
.DSM...WINTER WX ADV FOR FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                 
       NORTH OF I80.                                                            
       WINTER WX ADV S OF I80 EXCLUDING SRN TIER TUESDAY.                       
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
900 PM CST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
OVERNIGHT TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION              
AND 925 MB MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DECK INVADING FROM THE SW.             
APPEARS SOME WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE OVERNIGHT                
LOWS AND ON WAY UP. WILL NEED TO WORD SLOWLY RISING OR STEADY                   
OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF AREA. WILL GO SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH MOST OF             
AREA...AROUND 10 WEST. SKY CONDITIONS TO VARY FROM CLOUDY TO                    
BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ACTUAL MOISTURE INVASION AT 925 MB APPEARS              
TO BE COMPROMISING BETWEEN FASTER MESOETA AND SLOWER RUC/NGM.                   
VII                                                                             
.SHV...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1005 PM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
...CANCELED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NW COUNTIES...                      
THE QUESTION IS WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
TONIGHT?  WE NEED 4 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL IN 12 HOURS OR LESS OR A MIX            
OF SNOW AND ICE (OF CONSEQUENCE) TO KEEP IT IN EFFECT.  SINCE AFTER             
MAKING A FEW PHONE CALLS TO MASON AND OCEANA COUNTIES ONLY 1 TO 2               
INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED ALL DAY AND SINCE THE DEEP MOISTURE IS                 
ALREADY MOVING OUT. SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT EVENT IS JUST ABOUT                 
OVER...(SEE IR AND RADAR LOOPS) AND SINCE WARM ADVECTION WILL SOON              
KILL THE LAKE EFFECT ENHANCEMENT...I DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE               
ENOUGH SNOW TO REACH THAT 4 INCH IN 12 HOUR THRESHOLD.  I DO BELIEVE            
THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE (SEE BELOW)... BUT THAT              
SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND NOT A BIG ISSUE GIVEN THERE IS SNOW ON               
THE GROUND IN MOST AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.                                 
SINCE THE DEEP MOISTURE/WARM ADVECTION LIFT PART OF THE EVENT IS                
ALREADY MOVING EAST OF THE GRR CWA...AND 00Z RAOBS PLUS RUC AND ETA             
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A WARM/DRY LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB MOVING              
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT IS ABOUT              
OVER...IF IT EVER STARTED IN THE FIRST PLACE.  THE WARM ADVECTION               
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT BRINGS THE 1000 MB TO 850 MB                     
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -12C BTW 06Z AND 09Z OVER THE WESTERN CWA.  THAT             
WILL END ANY POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SNOW DEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE                  
SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 850 MB BY 09Z FOR SURE. SINCE THERE WILL BE               
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE BETWEEN THE 850 LEVEL AND THE 700 MB              
LEVEL...THERE WOULD BE TO MUCH OF A DRY LAYER FOR MUCH SEEDING OR               
FEEDING EITHER.  BOTTOM LINE TO THIS IS THE LIGHT SNOW...BE MIXED AT            
TIMES WITH SLEET (PHONE CALLS TO OFFICE AND LAN METAR) THEN CHANGE              
TO VERY LIGHT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE THE -12C ISOTHERM IS NO              
LONGER IN THE LAKE CLOUDY LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                 
BOTTOM LINE IS WE HAVE ALREADY DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY              
FOR THOSE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.  THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO                   
RE-ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THAT                 
REALLY DOES GET GOING BUT AT THIS POINT WITH DEW POINTS AT THE                  
SURFACE ON THE WI SIDE OF THE LAKE STILL NEAR OR BLEW 10F... HARD TO            
BELIEVE THE DRIZZLE EVENT WILL BE MUCH EITHER.                                  
I WILL FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...BASED ON WINDS                  
BECOMING MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING BRINGING THE WARMER                
UPSTREAM AIR INTO OUR CWA.                                                      
ZONES BY 1015 PM.                                                               
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
920 PM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW WNW FLOW ALF OVR NW GRT            
LKS BTWN UPR RDGING IN WRN CAN AND TROF OVR THE E. SHRTWV EMBEDDED              
WITHIN THIS FLOW NOW MOVG JUST E OF LK SUP IN ONTARIO...AND BROAD               
AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS THAT GENERATED SN OVR            
THE CWA TDAY HAS SHIFTED TO E AS INDICATED BY COLDER CLD TOPS ON IR             
SAT PIX/DEEPER MSTR. 00Z APX SDNG WITHIN THE WAD PATTERN/MOIST                  
AIRSTREAM SHOWS DEEP SATURATION THRU THE TROP. 00Z INL SDNG SHOWS NR            
SATURATED LYR BLO CONSIDERABLE DRYING ABV H85. PIREP FM NR CMX...               
WHERE MID LVL DRY AIR HAS MOVD IN PER IR SAT PIX HIER TEMPS...                  
INDICATES CLD RATHER THIN UNDER DRYING ALF...ONLY 1 TO 2K FT DEEP.              
SO NOT SURPRISED THAT OBS/88D INDICATE LTL IF ANY PCPN OVR CWA W OF             
MUNISING TO ESC. LK ENHANCED SN HAS PLAGUED SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE                    
COUNTIES THIS EVNG AS SYNOPTIC FORCG HAS COMBINED WITH STRG S FLOW              
OFF LK MI. 00Z GRB SDNG SHOWS MIXED LYR UP TO H875...NO DOUBT LIFTED            
HIER BY LATENT/SENSIBLE HEAT OVR NRN LK MI E OF GRB. INTENSITY OF               
LES HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY CNVGC BTWN SW FLOW OVR THE CWA AND SE WND              
OVR THE ERN CWA. SPOTTER RPRT FM ISQ AND GULLIVER IN FAR ERN                    
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY INDICATE SN RATES AS HI AS AN INCH OR TWO/HR...              
WITH S WND GUSTS OVR 30 MPH CAUSING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. GULLIVER               
RPRT AT 7 PM INDICATED ARND 8 INCHES ACCUMULATION TO THAT POINT AFTR            
SN STARTED DURG AFTN. HOWEVER...LATEST OB FM ISQ SHOWS WND HAS                  
SHIFTED TO WSW BEHIND BACK EDGE OF ENHANCED CLD...SUGING LLVL CNVGC             
AND LES WL DIMINISH DURG NXT FEW HRS AS SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHIFTS E               
WITH SHRTWV. ANOTHER SFC LO MOVG THRU FAR NW ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH            
SHRTWV OVR HUDSON BAY...WITH TRAILING COLD FNT XTNDG SW INTO NRN MN.            
SFC OBS SHOW SOME LGT SN AHD OF THIS BNDRY.                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS UPDATE INCLUDE SN TRENDS OVR THE ERN CWA...             
GOING WINTER STORM WRNG FOR LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES...TEMPS AND               
WINDS/GALE WNRG ON ERN LK SUP.                                                  
18Z ETA/00Z RUC SHOW ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVG STEADILY E OVRNGT WITH DRY             
AIR ABV H85 FILLING IN AND LLVL FLOW TENDING TO VEER WITH TIME IN               
WAKE OF SYS. AXIS OF SHARP H95 CNVGC DEPICTED BY 18Z ETA FOR 00Z-03Z            
IN ERN CWA APPEARS RIGHT ON TARGET...AND MODEL SHOWS SHARP LLVL                 
CNVGC CLRG ERY/FAR ERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY ARND 03Z AND ALL OF LUCE              
BY 05Z. THUS XPCT SYNOPTIC SN HAS ENDED WITH TIMING OF DEPARTURE OF             
LES IN LUCE/SCHOOLCRAFT FCST CLOSE TO 18Z ETA GUIDANCE. WL CANCEL               
WINTER STORM WRNGS AS MAIN LES BAND NOW SHOWN WELL ON 88D FOLLOWING             
DEPARTURE OF DEEP MSTR SHIFTS E OF RESPECTIVE COUNTIES.                         
TO THE W...ONLY OTHR PCPN CONCERN WL BE COLD FNT TRAILING                       
FM SFC LO OVR FAR NW ONTARIO. 18Z ETA AND 00Z RUC SHOW THIS BNDRY               
REACHING WRN ZNS ARND 09Z. HOWEVER...RUC FCST H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC/               
H3-2 CNVC COINCIDENT WITH FROPA SUGS ANY PCPN ACCOMPANYING ITS                  
ARRIVAL WL BE ON THE LGT SIDE. THERE MAY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PCPN            
OVR THE KEWEENAW ZNS WITH FCST W FLOW. SINCE NO FZDZ OBSVD UPSTREAM             
AND ETA FCST SDNGS FOR CMX SHOW -10C ISOTHERM WITHIN TOP OF FAIRLY              
SHALLOW MOIST LYR...THINK PCPN TYPE WL BE -SN/FLURRIES AND HAVE                 
REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ. AS FOR TEMPS...LLVL FLOW WL REMAIN WSW ALL             
NGT...AND TEMPS TO THE W AND SW ARE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. SINCE               
ABUNDANT LLVL MSTR DEPICTED ON THE INL SDNG SUGS SKIES WL REMAIN                
CLDY DESPITE UPR LVL DRYING...GOING FCST TREND FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN              
STEADY/SLOWLY RISE APPEARS ON TRACK. NO CHGS NECESSARY ON TEMPS ATTM.           
SFC OBS INDICATE SHARPEST PRES GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV HAS                
SHIFTED E OF MOST OF ERN LK SUP. OB FM STDM4 SHOWS SHARP DCRS IN WND            
SPEED BTWN 00Z/01Z. SINCE ETA/RUC ADVERTISE DIMINISHING LLVL WNDS               
WITH FLATTER PRES GRADIENT OVR THE LK DURG NGT...WL CANCEL GOING                
GALE WRNG FOR THE E HALF WITH 03Z UPDATE.                                       
AFDMQT FM DAYSHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                             
BEHIND THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY...THE ETA AND GFS SHOW SUBSIDENCE                  
BUILDING INTO THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NRN PLAINS.            
BEHIND THIS TROUGH...COOLER AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE                       
AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS TO -18C BY 00Z. THIS CAA WILL END ANY                   
FREEZING DRIZZLE. STILL...PROBABLY BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING                 
DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING WILL BE OVER THE KEWEENAW WHERE BEST UPSLOPE             
AND LOW LVL CVRG EXISTS.  AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE NW                     
CWFA...SCT-NUM LES SHOULD PICK UP DUE TO LAKE-H85 DELTA-T VALUES                
RISING TO 20C BY EVENING. REALLY NOT MUCH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT UNDER                
WEAKENING BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...SO WILL CUT ACCUMULATIONS DOWN              
SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES.                      
OTHERWISE...OTHER LAKESHORE AREAS WILL HAVE SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR                 
FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR TUE NIGHT WITH NW FLOW AND DELTA-T                 
VALUES REMAINING AROUND 20C. WITH WIND STAYING UP IN THE 10-15 MPH              
RANGE...AND CLDS NEAR THE LAKE...TEMPS WILL NOT GET TOO                         
COLD...GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH              
OF THE CWFA...THE WINDS MIGHT TURN AROUND TO 340-350 OVER THE                   
CENTRAL LAKE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME BANDS TO MOVE               
INTO EASTERN MQT COUNTY. WITH THE WINDS NNE OVER THE FAR EAST...LUCE            
COUNTY MAY END UP BEING SHADOWED FROM GREATEST SNOW. WILL THEREFORE             
GO WITH BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER WESTERN ALGER AND ONTONAGON                
COUNTIES. IT REMAINS VERY DRY ALOFT WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER                
THAN 4 KFT...SO SIG ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.                             
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE AREA ON WED. MIGHT BE A QUICK BURST OF            
SNOW WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS OR ETA SNOW STRONG               
CVRG WITH THE FRONT (WIND ACTUALLY ENDS UP BACKING BY 21Z IN                    
RESPONSE TO THE FAST MOVING HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS).               
THERE IS SOME H8-H7 Q-VECT CVRG WITH THE MAIN VORT...SO WOULD NOT BE            
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW REACH MENOMINEE. WILL THEREFORE GO             
WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR THE LAKE...AND CHC POPS ELSEWHERE.  MAIN                  
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE TO DROP H85 TEMPS TO -24C FOR A SHORT               
TIME WED NIGHT.                                                                 
THINK THAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWFA WED             
NIGHT IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...LES WILL STOP DUE TO H85 TEMPS                   
WARMING IN MODEST WAA...AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SW. THE KEWEENAW               
WILL KEEP SNOW AROUND THE LONGEST.                                              
WILL GO DRY ON THU AS WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE S/WV ENTERING THE              
PLAINS. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE               
SYSTEM...SO DESPITE SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS              
TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN UNTIL LATER THU NIGHT.                                     
OVERALL...TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EVERY               
DAY OF THE SHORT TERM EXCEPT WED. COLDEST MIN TEMP WILL MOST LIKELY             
BE ON WED NIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK.             
FOR THE EXTENDED(FRI-MON)...STILL LOOKS LIKE FA WILL HAVE GENERALLY             
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL HEIGHTS. GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE IN FAIR              
AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS IN A              
RETROGRESSIVE PATTERN...HAVING THE WEST COAST RIDGE SHIFT SLIGHTLY              
TO THE WEST...CAUSING THE MEAN UPR TROUGH AXIS TO BE CENTERED MORE              
OVER THE CENTRAL US...OPPOSED TO THE EASTERN US LIKE THE PAST SVRL              
WEEKS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC LOW TRACK TO MOST LIKELY SHIFT A                 
LITTLE FURTHER WEST (ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED YET THIS YEAR).             
SO...REALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ENSEMBLES ARE            
IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN A FAST MVNG S/WV TO SWING THRU THE AREA                    
FRI...CAUSING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT THE AREA. A STRONGER WAVE               
MOVES THRU SAT...WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW. SUNDAY MIGHT END UP BEING A              
DRY DAY...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING RIDGING                
AHEAD OF THE STRONGER S/WV MOVING OUT OF THE SW ON MONDAY. WILL                 
THEREFORE OPT TO REMOVE PCPN FROM FCST ON SUNDAY...AND WARM THE                 
TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. THE GFS AND IT/S ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT             
IN SOME TYPE OF A COLORADO LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...THE TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT            
AN EASTERN TRACK WOULD BE THE BEST GUESS NOW GIVEN THE STORM TRACK              
ALL WINTER. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC OF SNOW ON MONDAY...WITH                 
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. OVERALL...ABV NORMAL MIN TEMPS.                              
.MQT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                              
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1140 AM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVR SE IS MAIN CONCERN...                                 
VIS SAT THIS MORNING SHOWS ALTOSTRATUS SPREADING INTO WRN UPR MI                
ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON WRN PERIFERY OF              
EXITING HIGH PRES...NOW CENTERED OVER OHIO VALLEY. LIFT IS OCCURRING            
IN WAD ZONE OF SFC TROUGH FM MAN INTO DAKOTAS. MAIN FOCUS THOUGH IS             
OVR EXTREME SE CWA WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED               
SNOW LATE AFTN-EVENING. VIS SAT ALREADY SHOWING ISOLATED SNOW BAND              
FILTERING INTO SRN SCHOOLCRAFT EAST OF MANISTIQUE TO MACKINAC COUNTY            
LINE. VSBY DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 1/2SM AT ISQ AT 13Z WITH VSBY AT KSJX             
(BEAVER ISLAND) OCCASIONALLY BLO 3SM. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS REACHED AS              
FAR E AS KASX AS OF 1630Z.                                                      
RUC HAS BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR               
SPECIFICS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT. RUC AND EVENTUALLY ETA DEPCIT SSW                
WIND THROUGH AT LEAST 4KFT DEVELOPING BY 21Z. BLYR WINDS OVR NRN LK             
MI INCREASE TO 35KT BY 00Z...WITH 15KT OVR LAND AREAS. THIS SHOULD              
ALLOW SNOW BANDS OVR SERN SCHOOLCRAFT (GULLIVER-BLANEY PARK) TO                 
REACH 30 MI TO NNE ALONG M-28 FROM MCMILLIAN TO NEWBERRY. PROFILES              
FROM A SNOW GROWTH POINT OF VIEW BECOME VERY FAVORABLE THIS EVENING             
AS SHORTWAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE (CURRENTLY NOSING INTO NRN MN AND NW               
ONT) SPREAD OVER AREA. H85-H5 REMAIN AROUND -16C...WITH FAVORABLE               
SNOW GROWTH AREA FM H9-H5. ALTHOUGH HIGHER WINDS WILL DETER                     
ORGANIZATION TO INDIVIDUAL BANDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT SCENARIO IS NOT             
AS DEPENDENT ON THAT AS PURE LES. OTHER POSITIVE FACTOR FOR SIG SNOW            
IN THIS AREA INCLUDE ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO SSW WIND                
OVER LK MI AND SSE WIND NEAR NWRN LOWER MI (BEAVER ISLAND TO GRAND              
TRAVERSE BAY). ASCENT DUE TO SHORTWAVE AND UPR MI IN LFQ OF UPR JET             
IS MAXIMIZED BTWN 02Z-06Z...AND SINCE THIS AM IN SRN MAN/NW ONT VSBY            
HAS BEEN BLO 1SM AHEAD OF WAVE...WILL LIKELY SEE 1"+ (POSSIBLE 2-3")            
PER HOUR RATES OVER ENHANCEMENT TARGETED AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE                
BOOSTED SNOW ADVY TO WARNING BANKING ON EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW THIS               
EVENING PUSHING SOME LOCALES OVR 8"/12HR CRITERIA. INCREASING WINDS             
WILL ALSO POSE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW HAZARD.                                    
OTHERWISE...BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD A GENERAL 1-2"            
OF SNOW OVR CWA BEGINNING SHORTLY OVR FAR WRN ZONES THEN INTO                   
CNTRL/ERN ZONES BY LATE AFTN (285-290K SFCS SHOW ASCENT BEST).                  
WOULD EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVR NRN TIER (CLOSEST TO PERIFERY OF               
WSW MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING).                    
SHORTWAVE/UPR JET AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT DIMINISHES FM W             
(AROUND 03Z) TO E (AFT 06Z) WITH WIND SHIFT OCCURING AFT 06Z. HEAVY             
SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY END OVR SERN ZONES...WITH JUST FLURRIES                     
LINGERING OVER REST OF CWA.                                                     
COORD WITH APX...THANKS.                                                        
.MQT...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING                          
       MIZ007-014.                                                              
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                              
       GALE WARNING E 1/2 LAKE SUPERIOR.                                        
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1103 AM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING 1039MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHERN          
OH...RIDGING NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  NORTH-SOUTH               
ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS SOUTH INTO KS/OK.          
INTERFACE BETWEEN COLD AIR DRAINAGE FROM ONTARIO AND INFLUENCE OF               
WARMER LAKE WATERS MANIFESTED IN NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH            
AXIS ACROSS LAKE HURON/EASTERN UPPER...ALONG WHICH A VERY PERSISTENT            
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER LAKE HURON               
BETWEEN THE TWO PENINSULAS.  LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE            
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...FOLLOWED          
BY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.                
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH INITIAL NUISANCE CONVECTION...THEN            
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                      
12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT AROUND 4K FEET WITH 850MB                     
TEMPERATURES AROUND -22C.  KAPX VWP SHOWING WINDS IN LOWEST THREE GATES         
HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND RADAR RETURNS OVER LAKES                
MICHIGAN/HURON BEGINNING TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL.  PERSISTENT LAKE              
HURON BAND STARTING TO SHIFT NORTH...WITH SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE         
CELLS NOW SHOWING UP BETWEEN BEAVER ISLAND AND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.              
UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW INITIAL BATCH OF RETURNS CROSSING WESTERN                  
UPPER/CENTRAL WI...BUT MOSTLY VIRGA AT THIS POINT AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY         
ON GRB/DVN SOUNDINGS (I.E., 850MB DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS FROM 10-20C).           
OF COURSE THE DEPTH OF THIS DRY LAYER WILL SHRINK OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...         
SO THAT WE SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE OVER LAKE           
MICHIGAN AND LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME...THOUGH               
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER ENHANCEMENT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEYOND 22Z. THIS         
IS A COUPLE HOURS QUICKER THAN RUC/ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD IMPLY...           
BOTH MODELS HAVE ABOUT A 5K FOOT DRY LAYER OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 21Z            
BUT SUSPECT FROM SATELLITE TRENDS THAT MID LEVELS MAY MOISTEN UP A BIT          
QUICKER.  WILL NOT CHANGE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT...THOUGH             
THINK THE 4 INCH TOP END FOR THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A BIT HIGH AS THE            
GOOD SNOWFALL RATES GET CRANKING CLOSER TO 00Z WITH IMPRESSIVELY DEEP           
(300MB) ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND -16C 00Z A BIG PLUS FROM A SNOWFLAKE            
GROWTH STANDPOINT.  WILL ADD IN A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND                
DRUMMOND ISLAND AS WELL AS LAKE HURON BAND GETS NUDGED INLAND.                  
INTERIOR NORTHEAST LOWER AREAS STARTING OUT SUNNY WILL CLOUD UP WITH            
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL SC AND RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS ADVECTING IN FROM            
SOUTHWEST LOWER.  WILL PROBABLY REMOVE POPS ALONG I-75 CORRIDOR FROM            
GLR SOUTH AS MEASURABLE SNOW ARRIVES IN THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME.                 
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE AREAWIDE.                             
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES...AT THIS POINT WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS          
STARTS TO PLAY OUT. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1630Z.                     
.APX...WINTER STORM WARNING...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...                     
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...                  
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
830 PM CST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR RAPID COOLING ACROSS               
MOST OF THE CWA. AS OF 8 PM...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S                
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS. TEMPS IN NE LA AND SW MS HAVE                
FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S. LOW TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED A CAT              
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.                                                          
THE LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW CLOUDS OVER              
EAST TX AND WESTERNMOST LA. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS HAS NOT MADE                
MUCH OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION THUS FAR THIS EVENING. 00Z/28 RAOBS             
AND 02Z/28 RUC DATA DEPICT A GOOD DEAL OF DRY AIR OVER EASTERN LA               
AND MOST OF MS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT CLOUD COVER WILL                
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY            
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS IN THE DELTA AND            
NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO BE ACHIEVED JUST AFTER              
MIDNIGHT IN THIS AREA WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AS THE                 
CLOUD DECK AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WILL GO AHEAD AND               
DROP LOW TEMPS A CAT FOR ENTIRE CWA.                                            
GRIDS AND ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                    
GAGAN                                                                           
*****PREVIOUS DISCUSSION*****                                                   
MAIN FORECAST THIS PACKAGE CENTERS AROUND THE RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING            
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.                                    
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE            
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST                       
MISSISSIPPI. THIS HIGH WAS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES                
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TO               
THE EAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH TO                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND               
BEGIN TO RETURNING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. THE WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS             
TUESDAY WILL HELP MOST SITES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. DEW POINT IN THE               
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER TO THE 40S BY TUESDAY EVENING.                
TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE DELTA REGION AND             
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. ONLY .05 OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS BEEN            
RECORDED SO FAR THIS MONTH AT JAN. THE DRIEST JANUARY ON THE RECORD             
AT JAN ONLY RECORDED .75 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT THIS               
RECORD MAY BE SAFE AS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A WET ENDING TO            
THIS MONTH.                                                                     
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING              
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND                
INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY               
AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE LOWER                     
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE A               
SURFACE LOW OUT OF EAST TEXAS THAT WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT                    
THURSDAY AND PRODUCE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY                  
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY               
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT            
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.                               
THE START OF GROUND HOG DAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY HERE BUT CLOUDS            
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND NEXT                
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY.                                                         
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
JAN 33/63/52/60/47 00374                                                        
MEI 29/62/49/60/46 00374                                                        
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
22                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
915 AM MST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COOL FRONT MIXED OUT ALL AREAS INTO THE  40S              
OVERNIGHT...SO CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. MOST                   
DAYTIME HIGHS WON'T QUITE RECOVER TO THESE LEVELS SO WILL UPDATE FOR            
SUCH. WEAK OVERALL COOL ADVECTION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AS             
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING...ANY VERY LIGHT               
PRECIP WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTH. ETA...RUC AND SATELLITE PICTURE              
TRENDS INDICATE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY              
NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO MIX A LITTLE MORE DURING AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN             
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS                        
PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING A MODIFIED                
PACIFIC AIRMASS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CLIPPER                   
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPPING INTO            
THE PLAINS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE ARCTIC TO DROP INTO NE MT.                   
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW. GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE             
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR             
SUNDAY...LOOKS WARM AND A BIT OUT OF WHACK (BRINGING RAIN FOR E MT).            
DROPPED POPS FOR SOME PERIODS BETWEEN THU AND SAT AS DOWNSLOPING                
SEEMED TOO STRONG FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION TO OCCUR. REST OF                
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  JAMBA                                           
KGGW BCE /038 015/015 005/031 8200200                                           
     JEEJ 017/035 020/040 020/034 007/020 010/ 76033000333                      
KGDV BEE /040 015/018 004/033 8200200                                           
     JEEJ 020/036 020/040 019/035 014/022 012/ 76033000333                      
.GGW...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
915 AM MST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...PACIFIC COOL FRONT MIXED OUT ALL AREAS INTO THE                   
40S OVERNIGHT...SO CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED. MOST               
DAYTIME HIGHS WON'T QUITE RECOVER TO THESE LEVELS SO WILL UPDATE FOR            
SUCH. WEAK OVERALL COOL ADVECTION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST                      
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING...ANY VERY            
LIGHT PRECIP WEAKENING AND MOVING SOUTH. ETA...RUC AND SATELLITE                
PICTURE TRENDS INDICATE PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE                             
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH. EXPECT WINDS TO MIX A LITTLE MORE                 
DURING AFTERNOON. SIMONSEN                                                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS                        
PERIOD...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AM EXPECTING A MODIFIED                
PACIFIC AIRMASS TO DOMINATE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A CLIPPER                   
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPPING INTO            
THE PLAINS SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE ARCTIC TO DROP INTO NE MT.                   
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHOULD BRING SNOW. GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE             
A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...WHILE THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY FOR             
SUNDAY...LOOKS WARM AND A BIT OUT OF WHACK (BRINGING RAIN FOR E MT).            
DROPPED POPS FOR SOME PERIODS BETWEEN THU AND SAT AS DOWNSLOPING                
SEEMED TOO STRONG FOR PRECIPITATION GENERATION TO OCCUR. REST OF                
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  JAMBA                                           
KGGW BCE /044 015/015 005/031 8600200                                           
     JEEJ 017/035 020/040 020/034 007/020 010/ 76033000333                      
KGDV BEE /046 015/018 004/033 8600200                                           
     JEEJ 020/036 020/040 019/035 014/022 012/ 76033000333                      
.GGW...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH                                           
855 PM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
WL UPDATE FCST MOSTLY FOR TIMING AND COSMETIC CHANGES. INITIAL BATCH            
OF WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT CROSSING FCST AREA AND STRUGGLING TO MOISTEN             
LWR LYRS. DEWPOINTS STILL NR OR BLO ZERO. COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF             
LGT SNOW/FLURRIES. NEXT WAVE STARTING TO WORK ACRS MIDWEST. 18Z ETA             
SHOWS SNOW DVLPNG TWRD DAYBREAK ESP ACRS W PART OF FCST AREA AND WL             
INDICATE SUCH TIMING IN FCST. LATEST RUC DOES NOT SEEM TO BE                    
CATCHING DVLPNG SYSTEM OVR MIDWEST AND LWR LAKES VERY WELL SINCE                
CURRENT MOISTURE OR PCPN NOT DEPICTED. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE                   
BEST UVV WL DVLP TUES AS WAVE MOVS EWRD WITH UPR DIFFLUENCE AND                 
FRONTOGENISIS....PROB JUST S OF TURNPIKE IF MODELS ARE CORRECT...BUT            
WL WAIT TO ISSUE ADVISORY SINCE SNOW OUTSIDE OF THIS ZONE WL BE                 
LIGHTER. TEMPS SHUD GEN RISE OVNGT WITH S WIND AND CLDS/PCPN AND WL             
CONT WITH RISING TEMP TREND IN CURRENT FCST. UPDATE ABT 930 PM.                 
.CLE...                                                                         
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
KOSARIK                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
730 PM MST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED WET BULB ZERO AROUND 3500FT AGL/6500 MSL.              
THIS WILL BE KEY TO TONIGHT/S FORECAST AS SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN MT             
PER WATER VAPOUR RACES EAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE PER IR AND            
LATEST KUDX RADAR RETURNS. 00Z RUC INDICATES TURNOVER OCCURRING                 
BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CWA. PREVIOUS ZONE UPDATE            
ALREADY ADDRESSED THIS WITH HIGHER LOWS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TURN                
OVER. 00Z RUC ALSO FURTHER NORTH WITH PRECIPITATION...IN LINE WITH              
18Z GFS. WILL BE MONITORING CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND UPDATE AS NEEDED             
TONIGHT.                                                                        
GIVEN WE USUALLY SEE SN TURNOVER FASTER THAN MODELS INDICATE...WILL             
CONTINUE CURRENT HEADLINES.                                                     
.UNR...WINT WX ADVY TNGT FOR PORTIONS NERN WY AND THE SOUTHERN BLACK            
        HILLS.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
315 PM CST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
...NEAR TERM...                                                                 
NUMEROUS LITTLE DETAILS TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE NEAR TERM. FIRST IS             
THE PCPN CHCS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW...FOG PSBL IN THE JAMES RVR                 
VALLEY...AND PCPN CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT.                                           
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS ARE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH 7H WAVE/OMEGA                 
FIELDS ACROSS OUR SW CWA. THE GFS HAS WASHED OUT 7H THETA-E                     
FORCING...WHILE SOME WEAK LIFT STILL NOTED IN THE ETA...AS WELL AS              
SOME MINOR WIND FIELD CONVERGENCE AT 7H. CURRENTLY KABR GETTING                 
WIDESPREAD ECHOS ACROSS NW CWA...MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 7H                 
FROTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...KMBG ONLY REPORTING SCT MID                
CLOUDS. THIS FRONTO FORCING IS PROGGED TO DROP S THIS                           
EVENING...EXITING CWA BY 06Z TUESDAY. WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE             
FREEZING THIS AREA...AND DWPTS ALSO ABOVE FREEZING...CONFIDENT THAT             
IF ANY PCPN FALLS...WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...SO JUST MENTIONED                  
SPRINKLES FOR KPIR AREA THIS EVENING.                                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FOG CHCS. JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA STILL                 
EXPERIENCING S WINDS...EVEN THO SFC FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH AREA.              
T/TD SPREADS ON ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR SO. RUC/LAMP DATA STILL SHOW              
LOCAL WINDS TURNING MORE WESTERLY...AIDING IN DRYING OUT LO LEVELS.             
LOOKING UPSTREAM...NO REAL DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH MOST OF NODAK                  
HAVING DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WILL INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE             
FOG PRONE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NEXT IRRITATION IS TEMPS. IF LOW                  
CLOUDS DEVELOP AND FOG...FEEL THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HANG INTO THE            
MID 20S. HAVE TRENDED LOWS OVERNIGHT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE VALUES.               
TUESDAY IS MORE OF A DAY INBETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW AT              
SFC. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN INTO I-29 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN DAY AS              
WEAK SFC SYSTEM TRIES TO SPIN UP ACROSS WRN SD. THIS WILL ALLOW                 
WINDS TO TURN TO THE S/SE ACROSS SWRN CWA. WITH CAA TAKING PLACE ALL            
LEVELS...TEMPS WILL BE MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL FOR END OF JANUARY.             
TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK SFC LOW CONTS TO FORM WHILE UPPER DISTURBANCES             
DROP SOUTH IN NW FLOW. MODELS SHOWING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING             
ACROSS NC SODAK IN THE EVENING...MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST                
OVERNIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON LOCATION OF SNOW               
BAND...SO HAVE PAINTED WITH A RATHER BROAD BRUSH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR              
LIGHT SNOW. WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUDS AND PCPN OCCURRING...HAVE GONE              
ABOVE GUIDANCE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST.                               
FOR WEDNESDAY...STRONG POLAR HIGH DROPS INTO CWA...HELPING TO DRY               
OUT ATMOS. MODELS CONT TO HANG ONTO LIGHT SNOW THROUGH DAY...BUT                
THIS APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND                 
SUBSIDENCE NOTED AT 7H AND 5H...HAVE GONE WITH DRY FCST FOR                     
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLISH TEMPS.                                                   
...LONG TERM...                                                                 
COLD AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850             
HPA TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RISING ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.             
LOW AND MID LEVEL SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ALSO ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AS MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN WITH PACIFIC SHORT                 
WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE RIDGE. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS             
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PUSHING INTO CWA DURING            
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. Q-VECTOR DIAGNOSTICS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN               
LOW AND MID LEVELS...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                 
INCREASES DURING THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT                      
WAVE...WILL NOT REMOVE LIGHT SNOW MENTION FROM CURRENT FORECAST.                
FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT COLD             
ADVECTION IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH TRUE ARCTIC AIR CONFINED MORE TO                  
HUDSON BAY REGION. FRIDAY SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BUT THEN                
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS RUN IS TOWARD              
FASTER SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER WHICH IS NOW MORE             
INLINE WITH 00Z CANADIAN TIMING. DECENT JET DYNAMICS ALSO APPEAR TO             
BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS NORTHERN CWA. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
SHOWING SOME STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY             
EVENING. WITH EXPECTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS WILL INCLUDE            
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.                               
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS HAS BEEN                      
CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER WAVE HEADING INTO THE                   
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DIG              
WAVE FURTHER SOUTH WITH MORE AMPLITUDE. CANADIAN IS LESS AMPLIFIED              
WITH EASTERN PACIFIC/WESTERN US RIDGE AND SHOWS WEAKER MORE                     
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. NCEP ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS DO SUGGEST THAT OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS MAYBE TOO AMPLIFIED              
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AS IT DIVES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT EVEN WITH             
THIS HEDGE TOWARD WEAKER CANADIAN WILL STILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SNOW             
IN GRIDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AS MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS AT               
LEAST IN AGREEMENT OF SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT DAKOTAS. BY MONDAY UPPER             
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH PLACES CWA IN A DRY                
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER                
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ/MARSILI                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1133 AM EST MON JAN 27 2003                                                     
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MOSTLY THE               
FIRST PERIOD AND TO DROP WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACRS SRN VT.                       
HI PRESS RIDGE TO MOVE ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE.              
UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE FA TODAY AS WELL. S/W TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE           
GREAT LKS REGION TONITE AND INTO THE FA FROM THE NW LATE TONITE.                
12Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO            
THRU THE SINGLE NUMBERS TODAY WITH W-NW SFC WINDS AT 5-20 KTS. T1MAX            
TEMPS ARE BASICALLY ZERO TO +10F TODAY. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST               
PERIOD WINDS/TEMPS BASED ON THIS DATA. BASED ON EXPECTED WINDS/TEMPS            
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...WIND CHILL TEMPS OF -10F TO -25F ARE EXPECTED           
ACRS THE FA TODAY. SRN VT WILL MOST LIKELY NOT SEE WIND CHILL                   
READINGS BLO -15F. THEREFORE...HAVE DROPPED WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACRS            
SRN VT AND WILL KEEP WIND CHILL ADVISORIES AS IS ACRS THE REST OF THE           
FA. WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABLE TO KILL ALL HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON           
PACKAGE. LOW-LVLS TO BE DRY TODAY ACRS THE FA. VIS SAT PIX SHOW VERY            
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLDS ACRS THE FA ATTM.                                     
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR           
ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATE TONITE. BEST LOW-LVL MSTR TO           
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE FA TONITE THOUGH. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO            
AFFECT THE WRN ZONES BY LATE TONITE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO            
THE GOING ZFP NEEDED ATTM.                                                      
WRK ZONES...FINAL ZFP AND WSW ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                          
.BTV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-            
       035-VTZ001>010.                                                          
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
320 AM CST MON JAN 27 2003                                                      
...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE PRECIPITATION AND TYPE LATE TONIGHT              
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS            
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.  THESE HAVE BEEN THE                 
RESULT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE IN THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND            
SUPPORTED BY THE 40-50 KNOT WINDS AT 850 MB.  KARX-88D DETECTS NO               
SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THE EARLIER ACTIVITY EXITED THE                 
FORECAST AREA BY 100 PM.  WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
HAS PUSHED READINGS INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN 2/3RDS OF              
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
12Z CYCLE OF THE RUC/ETA/GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  NO MAJOR             
INITIALIZATION ERRORS NOTED.                                                    
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF MIXING.  WILL                 
ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.                                                  
FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A REAL TASK TONIGHT.  WARM AIR                
/TEMPERATURES NEARING 40 OVER WESTERN IOWA AND MINNESOTA/ SURGING               
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT HOW             
LONG.  OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES ENOUGH TO ALLOW              
FOR SOME DECOUPLING AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE FALLS.  SO WILL                  
FORECAST RISING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING UNTIL GRADIENT DECREASES.             
THEN WILL ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A DECREASE TOWARD MORNING.                         
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.  ETA CONTINUES TO            
BE VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH            
THIS RUN AND HAS COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE ETA.  THE 10KM RUC                
EXTENSION INITIATES PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTER OF THE FORECAST               
AREA THEN MOVES IT SOUTH.  THIS IS AN INTERESTING FORECAST...BUT                
SINCE I CANNOT SEE ANY OF THE OTHER FIELDS /FORCING...ETC/ WILL HAVE            
TO DISCARD.                                                                     
ETA KEEPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA...THEN PUSHES IT SOUTH.  FORCING...MAINLY FROM                    
FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES /QN 700-500 MB/...IS QUITE STRONG IN THIS               
REGION AS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF THIS FORCING            
NORTH EXTENDING FROM KRST-KLSE.  THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF            
PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE MODEL QPF AREA...UP INTO THIS REGION.                
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM.  BUFR SOUNDINGS                 
SUGGEST AN INITIAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OSAGE              
IOWA TO RICHLAND CENTER APPROXIMATION...WHERE WARM LAYER                        
TEMPERATURES ARE GREATER THAN 3C.  THE WARM LAYER TEMPERATURE                   
DECREASES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS COLD AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE            
NORTH FROM PASSING LOW TO THE SOUTH.  SOIL TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE            
LOW AND ANY LIQUID THAT DOES FALL DURING THE MORNING WILL QUICKLY               
FREEZE.  AS A RESULT...WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE             
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.                                                      
SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY LATE...TAPPING MORE COLD AIR AND ADVECTING IT              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  MOS FINALLY AGREES WITH THIS FORECAST                  
THINKING...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THIS              
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM NEARS THE REGION LATER THIS             
WEEK...CAUSING MORE WARM ADVECTION.  THIS WILL MAINLY OCCUR THURSDAY            
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                                             
KRC                                                                             
...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...                                             
MAIN CONCERN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE TRACK AND TIMING OF             
STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                 
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE FOR FRIDAY AND                     
SATURDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SYSTEM              
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
12Z GFS RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES                                 
EMBEDDED IN WEST/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER               
MIDWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THESE                
FEATURES REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER            
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.                 
WILL REDUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AS A             
RESULT.                                                                         
12Z GFS INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING IN ACROSS              
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO                
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES A DEEPER AND             
SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL               
U.S. SUNDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. 00Z AND 12Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT            
WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z MONDAY.                
THIS TRACK LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST                  
AREA.  WILL KEEP CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND               
LET LATER FORECAST NARROW DOWN ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.                          
DTJ                                                                             
COORDINATED WITH DVN/DMX/MKX.                                                   
.LSE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                     
         MORNING...IAZ018-019.                                                  
       WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TUESDAY MORNING...IAZ029-030-WIZ061.             
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
240 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKING QUITE GOOD, BUT HAVE DELAYED ONSET            
OF PRECIP IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS.  ADVISORY WILL REMAIN               
INTACT MENTIONING TIMING CHANGE.                                                
VERY WARM NOSE OF AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER              
THE STATE.  IR IMAGERY SHOWING FLARE UP OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN KS               
APREADING INTO NW MO WHICH MAY BE A SIGN OF THE CONVECTIVE                      
INSTABILITY ALOFT.  WE'LL SEE IF IT'S REALIZED LATER TODAY, BUT THAT            
COULD CERTAINLY PLAY A ROLE IN PRECIP TYPE AND INTENSITY.  FOR NOW,             
THE FZRA THREAT APPEARS MOST LIKELY PER CURRENT SFC WET BULB TEMPS              
AND WARM NOSE ALOFT PER SOUNDINGS. I HAVE INCLUDED SLEET N SECTIONS             
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE WARM LAYER, WITH SN AFTER NOON                 
MIXING IN.  META CROSS SECTIONS OF EPV/FRONTOGENESIS/AGEO CIRC SHOW             
NICE MAXIMUM OF LIFT IN DENDRITIC ZONE, BUT JUST ABOVE HIGHEST                  
MOISTURE.  META/GFS/CANADIAN ALL CONSISTENT ON QPF, WITH BEST BAND              
IN THIS OMEGA FIELD.  06Z RUC SHOWING SIMILAR TREND.  CURRENT RADAR             
SHOWS EXPANDING ECHOES IN NW IA INTO SE SD WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE INTO             
FORECAST PRECIP SHIELD.                                                         
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TO LONG TERM WITH GFS STILL SHOWING WARM                   
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PRECIP                  
FORECAST.  00Z CANADIAN ALSO CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN AND 00Z/27            
GFS.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH MO/IL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.               
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE FORECAST MUCH AT THIS TIME.                       
.DSM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TODAY ALL BUT SOUTHERN TIER OF                   
COUNTIES.                                                                       
KULA                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
222 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH CHANCES OF            
PRECIPITATION.                                                                  
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE                
NORTH. ONLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM                 
LIFT...SO DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. AROUND 18Z SURFACE PRESSURE RISES            
ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 MB/3 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL TO               
OUR SOUTH. RUC II SHOWS SOME GUSTS OF >25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON IN ALL BUT        
THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES. MOS WIND GUIDANCE IS ALSO LOWER AT MCK...SO              
WILL KNOCK THOSE AREAS DOWN TO BREEZY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS                
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT POST FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN             
SQUELCHES PRECIP CHANCES. WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS A BIT DUE TO             
CLOUD COVER/CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO BE A                 
POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OUT OF ZONES FOR NOW.                     
WEDNESDAY...VORT MAX DROPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE               
AFTERNOON. ETA IS STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE DYNAMICS THAN              
THE GFS. MAIN COLD SURGE STAYS WELL EAST...BUT SOME COLDER AIR IS               
BACKDOORED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. EASTERLY UPSLOPE             
SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO MAXIMIZED IN THAT AREA. ETA POPS ARE AROUND 30             
COMPARED TO NIL IN THE GFS. GIVEN THE PROPENSITY FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS            
TO BE STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE AS OF LATE...WILL INTRODUCE                  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEBRASKA COUNTIES/YUMA/KS                 
BORDER COUNTIES. PHASE IS PROBLEMATIC. BUFR SOUNDING NEAR MCCOOK                
SHOWS MOST OF THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR A VERY SHALLOW               
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. GIVEN THAT LIFT IS UPSLOPE DRIVEN...AT THIS             
TIME EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET                   
CHANGING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN LATER              
IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                               
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...THIS TIME OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...COMES              
DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET ALSO PROVIDES            
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. PROBLEM IS LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW                   
LEVELS. SURFACE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE LOOKS TO PROVIDE SOUTHWEST                  
SURFACE WIND/DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LEE TROUGH PUSHES EAST               
LATE IN THE DAY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AT THAT TIME BUT NORTHWEST               
SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION.              
GFS QPF IS VERY LIGHT...EXTENDED ETA IS DRY. DO NOT FEEL                        
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.                                            
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED.                                                         
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE IN HEADER                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL LATER TODAY THROUGH WED.                   
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN WITH             
WNW MID/UPR LVL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BENEATH NORTH CNTRL                  
CANADA POLAR VORTEX. ONE WEAK SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER NRN ONTARIO               
WHILE NEXT SIGNFICANT UPSTREAM SHRTWV WAS LOCATED NRN ALBERTA. AT               
THE SFC...A TROF EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN LK SUPERIOR               
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH TOWARD SE MN. ANOTHER ARCTIC HI              
PRES LURKED OVER WEST CNTRL CANADA BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAD                
MOVED THROUGH NRN MN. KMQT 88D AND OBS OVER NRN UPR MI INDICATED                
SOME FLURRIES LINGERING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME. SO FAR...LOW             
LVL TEMP PRFL IS COLD ENOUGH WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE NEAR -10C ISOTHERM            
TO MINIMIZE -FZDZ THREAT. UPSTREAM OVER NRN WI AND SRN UPR                      
MI...MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS DEPRESSIONS OF 4-7 F                
ALSO WERE NOT CONDUCIVE TO FREEZING PCPN.                                       
SINCE ETA/GFS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND                    
PROGRESSION OF COLD AIR ACRS LK SUPERIOR INTO UPR MI THROUGH WED AND            
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES...ETA WAS USED FOR DETAILS REGARDING LES.               
TODAY...LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD END EARLY AS 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT             
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. AS SFC TROF MOVES TO THE EAST...COLD FRONT              
WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH ARCTIC HI PRES AND COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO             
THE AREA. H8 TEMPS FCST TO DROP TO -15C NEAR THE KEWEENAW BY 18Z                
AND NORTH CNTRL UPR MI BY 21Z. BY 00Z H8 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -18C.               
06Z ETA AND RUC WERE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD AIR. LOW LVL                    
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER             
ACTIVITY BUT WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...LITTLE ACCUMULATION                    
EXPECTED TIL COLDER AIR ARRIVES.                                                
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...WHILE ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY                   
TONIGHT FOR ACCUMULATING LES...INVERSION HGTS REMAIN BTWN 3K-4K FT.             
GRADUAL VEERING OF LOW LVL WINDS FROM 320 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO               
NEAR 350 BY 06Z/WED WILL ALLOW LES TO SHIFT INTO ERN MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. HOWEVER RELATIVELY LIGHT CBL FLOW OF 20 KTS AND LAND BREEZE             
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALLOW LK INDUCED TROF DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP BULK              
OF LES EAST OF MARQUETTE. FCST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS GENERALLY VERY            
WEAK. MAIN EFFECTS (MOISTURE/LIFT) OF SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF WRN                  
CANADA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SW OF UPR MI. HOWEVER...WITH               
06Z ETA DEPICTION OF PROXIMITY OF LIGHT QPF AND TREND TOWARD BETTER             
QG FORCING AND LIFT WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER SRN UPR            
MI. A BRIEF BOOST TO LES IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT                 
SHOULD HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS. RELATIVELY                   
SHALLOW COLD AIR AND VERY DRY AIR UPSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE ACYC             
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TO 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS PER            
12 HRS WITH SOME LCL 4 INCH AMOUNTS. UNLIKE LES WITH RECENT VERY                
COLD ARCTIC AIR MASSES TEMPS IN SNOW GROWTH PRFL ARE A BIT MORE                 
FAVORABLE WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE FLUFFY HIGH SNOW/WATER RATIO TYPE                
SNOW.                                                                           
LATER WED INTO THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE            
LOWER LKS BRINGING BACKING WINDS AND WAA AS THE H8 THERMAL TROF                 
SLIDES EAST OF LK SUPERIOR. WAA INCREASES WED NIGHT WITH TIGHT                  
GRADIENT DEVELOPING AS THE HIGH SINKS TO THE SOUTH. WHILE MOST SFC              
WINDS SHOULD BE DECOUPLED...ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD DEVELOP FOR STEADY             
OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE.                                                    
TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES AND CURRENT FCST VALUES LOOKED REASONABLE.           
.MQT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
348 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS                         
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH                           
THE PASSAGE OF A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL                        
JET.  THE ETA IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF                            
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...KEEPING IT SOUTH OF I94.  THE                           
AVN IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH.  AM LEANING WITH THE AVN                             
SOLUTION...BECAUSE IT VERIFIED MUCH BETTER AT 06Z WITH                          
THE SURFACE LOW OVER CO...HANDLED THE 850 HEIGHTS BETTER                        
AND THE LATEST RUC IS ALSO MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE                          
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS 250 MB JET THAN THE ETA                           
SHOWED.  FEEL THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO AN ADVISORY EVENT                        
ALONG THE I94 CORRIDOR.  THE FLOW OF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH                  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS                           
AND THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION NOW BREAKING OUT OVER                           
SD.  ISENTROPIC SURFACE I290 ON THE RUC ALSO PICKS                              
UP THIS DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THE SNOW                              
SHOULD MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SO WILL                                   
GO WITH A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 18Z TO 06Z                         
ALONG THE I94 CORRIDOR...AND DROP VALUES THE FURTHER                            
NORTH YOU GO.  AM EXPECTING LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION BY                        
THE TIME YOU GET TO ROUTE 10.                                                   
TODAY...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BE PATCHY.  WILL BE                         
WATCHING OBS AND RADAR TRENDS...AND MAY TAKE IT OUT                             
BEFORE 0430 AM ZONE ISSUANCE.  CURRENTLY                                        
NONE REPORTED IN THE AREA.  STEADIER SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN                        
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS UP                       
AND BETTER LIFT ARRIVES.  THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SNOW                      
WILL BE ALONG THE I94 CORRIDOR.                                                 
TONIGHT THE SNOW WILL PULL AWAY AROUND 06Z...AS DRIER AND                       
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  LAKE EFFECT DOES NOT                  
LOOK TO FAVORABLE TONIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.                            
A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT EXISTS ON WEDNESDAY                          
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE CONDITIONAL AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW                        
IS NOT VERY CONVERGENT.  LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.                 
INVERSION HEIGHT COME WAY DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD                  
LEAD TO SKIES SCATTERING OUT.  A COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS THE                  
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES.  WITH FRESH SNOWFALL...JXN TO LAN MAY                  
ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW ZERO.                                                     
MJS                                                                             
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                 
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY SETTING UP                  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WE'LL CONTINUE TO GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY                  
FORECAST WORDING ALTHOUGH WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW                 
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THURSDAY. A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER                    
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING IN FRIDAY... SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO CARRY A                  
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THOSE FEATURES.                                       
WE'LL GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC AND DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AS WEAK                   
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. BY SUNDAY A FAIRLY STRONG               
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT OVER THE PLAINS STATES AS                  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. OUT AHEAD OF               
THAT SYSTEM WE EXPECT THE RIDGE TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION AND SW                 
FLOW TO BECOME STRONGER... SO IT WILL DEFINITELY BECOME MILDER.                 
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TOO AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO CARRY A                
CHANCE FOR RAIN. IF ECMWF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO            
QUESTION P-TYPE WOULD BE STRAIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER... 00Z CANADIAN                 
GUIDANCE WANTS TO TAKE THIS LOW ON A MUCH FURTHER SOUTH TRACK... SO             
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. RIGHT NOW TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY                  
AND CONSISTENCY WE'RE GOING WITH ECMWF AS MODEL OF CHOICE.                      
WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY. ANY RAIN WOULD LINGER               
INTO THE MORNING BEFORE PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO SNOW AS THE LOW                 
MOVES EAST AND CAA KICKS IN.                                                    
LAURENS                                                                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
610 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12 UTC TAFS...                                      
THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ROCKFORD STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY                       
AIR AND AN INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION                  
AT 850 MB AND THE AVN AND ETA MODELS KEEP THE ADVECTION                         
THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL FORECAST FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 17 UTC.                     
THE MESO ETA AND RUC MODELS FORECAST MAXIMUM VERTICAL VELOCITY                  
ABOUT 17 TO 21 UTC. WILL FORECAST THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND                       
SNOW AT THAT TIME. CEILINGS ABOUT 600 FEET TO 1500 FEET AND                     
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. THE COLDER AIR COMES IN ABOUT                      
19 TO 20 UTC AND CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW.                         
THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH MOST OF THE FORCING FROM                  
DIVERGENCE FROM A JET STREAM AND ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING. THE COLDEST            
AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. RADAR IS SHOWING INCREASING                
PRECIPITATION ALOFT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE                
GROUND AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR RISES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN            
INCREASING IN THE TAFS AREA DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. WILL FORECAST              
A SLOW END THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE               
AREA.                                                                           
WHW                                                                             
PUBLIC DISCUSSION FOR 4 AM ZONES...                                             
COMPLEX WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH ONE SHORT WAVE PUSHING               
THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO WITH IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING                  
THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS FROM            
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NEB AND IA AHEAD            
OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN KS.                    
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST              
NEB AND NW IA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP FORECAST TO EXPAND QUICKLY                   
EASTWARD TODAY AS WAVE APPROACHES AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING                     
INCREASES...AND AREA COMES UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE TO 125 KNOT UPPER               
JET OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ETA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO QUICK IN               
GENERATING PRECIP HERE JUST AFTER 12Z...AND PREFER AVN IDEA OF                  
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING. ETA/GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN                   
DEVELOPING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH QPF ACROSS NRN IL AND NW                     
IND...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT FORECAST QUESTION IS THAT OF PRECIP TYPE.              
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ETA INITIALLY SHOW MAX WARM LAYER TEMPS                 
AROUND 0 NORTH TO +1 SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME SLEET AT                    
ONSET...THEN EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGING PRECIP TO SNOW FROM NORTH             
TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF RFD THIS MORNING SHOWING             
TEMPS BETWEEN +4 AND +6 ABOVE INVERSION AT ABOUT 840 MB. THIS WOULD             
SUGGEST A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT ONSET OF PRECIP.                    
LOOKING AT AVN 295K ISENTROPIC FORECASTS...SATURATION OCCURS                    
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING...WITH 3 TO 4 G/KG                     
AVAILABLE WHERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE EARLIEST. THUS AM                   
INCLINED TO BUMP AMOUNTS TO 2-4 INCHES NORTH AND CONTINUE WITH                  
LESSOR AMOUNTS TO SOUTH WHERE ARRIVAL AND CHANGEOVER TO BE LATER AND            
PRECIP LIKELY OF SHORTER DURATION. THIS BELOW 4 INCH ADVISORY                   
CRITERIA. WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT FREEZING RAIN VS. SLEET AND SPEED OF             
CHANGE OVER WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR ANY FREEZING RAIN PROBLEMS               
FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF NECESSARY.                                       
WITH ALL THE FOCUS ON THE NEAR TERM THIS MORNING WILL NOT MAKE TOO              
MANY CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST. SECOND WEAKER SHORT WAVE                 
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY SOME CLOUDS EXPECTED AS              
AIRMASS IS DRY AND FORCING RATHER WEAK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN              
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...AND ANY            
SNOW COVER...LEADING TO COLD TEMPS. LOWERED MINS WED NIGHT                      
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM GOING FORECAST IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE. SURFAC                 
RIDGE MOVES EAST THURSDAY...WITH CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT WAA SNOW                  
THURSDAY NIGHT. NEW GFS BRINGS MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE ACROSS THE AREA              
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW.                          
THANKS FOR COORD IWX...DVN...ILX.                                               
.CHI...NONE                                                                     
RATZER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
907 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA WITH TEMPERATURES UNDER            
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. WINDS ALSO                   
PICKING UP WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                       
FOR THE UPDATE...RUC HANDLING TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER THE BEST WITH               
STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO PUSHING SOUTH. WILL GO                
CLOUDY ACROSS THE BOARD AND LOWER TEMPS SUBSTANCIALLY FROM PREVIUS              
FORECAST GIVEN CLOUDS AND CURRENT TEMPS. WILL ALSO BUMP ALL ZONES TO            
WINDY CATEGORY THROUGH AFTERNOON BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TOWARD 00Z.               
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                                          
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1117 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
KGRR-88D AND REGIONAL MOSAIC OF SURROUNDING 88-D/S HAS SHOWN AN                 
INCREASE IN PCPN ACROSS THE CWA...AS EXPECTED. 12Z RAOBS SHOW SOME              
DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR 850 MB BUT THE PROFILE IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST              
SURROUNDING THAT AREA. GIVEN WHERE PCPN IS CURRENTLY FALLING, WE'LL             
BOOST POPS IN THE NORTH INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AND MENTION ACCUMS             
AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE PCPN ACROSS THE NORTH IS BEING AIDED BY            
THE RRQ OF THE UPR JET. AVN IS STILL THE WETTEST SHOWING OVER A                 
TENTH OF AN INCH OF PCPN WHILE THE RUC/ETA SHOW ABOUT HALF OF THAT.             
RADARS TO THE WEST OVER IA/NE SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER PCPN               
EXISTS IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE OVERALL PCPN FIELD WHICH WOULD                 
STILL PLACE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS THE SRN CWA...WHERE THEY CURRENTLY             
ARE. WILL LEAVE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FCST AS IS.                              
93                                                                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1100 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE                    
NORTHERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS. 120KT JET OBSERVED            
AT 300MB FROM THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE ANALYSIS             
SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE             
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TO DEVELOPING              
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS              
SHOW ECHOS FROM WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN                    
MINNESOTA/IOWA...BUT WITH SURFACE REPORTS OF PRECIP CONFINED MAINLY             
FROM WISCONSIN WESTWARD.                                                        
UPDATE CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS              
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE 290K                
ISENTROPIC SURFACE COMBINED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FARTHER                    
NORTH...TOPPED OFF WITH 500MB/300MB DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT-ENTRANCES OF            
JETS...LEADING TO THE RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF REFLECTIVITIES FROM             
MINNESOTA/IOWA INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. UPPER JET CURRENTLY FOCUSED BACK            
ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...PROVIDING THE GREATER NORTHWARD EXTENT             
TO PRECIP. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE EASTWARD...EXPECT THIS SNOW TO                
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER AS WELL. 12Z RUC/ETA HAVE PICKED UP ON              
THIS NORTHWARD SPREAD A LITTLE BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL            
LOOK TO BE A BIT ON THE SOUTH SIDE COMPARED TO LATEST RADAR                     
OBSERVATIONS. BEST MOISTURE/LIFT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN                 
CWA...WHERE CURRENT FORECAST HAS CATEGORICAL SNOW 2-4 INCHES OF                 
ACCUMULATION /TOTAL ACCUMULATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING/.                 
PRECIP TAPERED TO CHANCE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. GIVEN            
THE LATEST RADAR/MODEL TRENDS WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE OF A WIDESPREAD             
WORDING...BUT JUST LIGHT SNOW WILL LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE              
NORTHERN CWA.                                                                   
AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO POINT TO ALL                
SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. 12Z RUC HAS A LAYER 900MB-800MB UP TO              
+2C ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL QUITE DRY                
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5C-10C TO PROVIDE SOME EVAPORATIVE                 
COOLING. KORD REPORTING -PL/-FZRAPL WITH VFR VISIBILITIES IN THIS               
AREA. RUC INDICATES THIS WARM LAYER STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA...WITH             
PROFILES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST LENAWEE APPROACHING -1C BUT NOT                   
WARMING POSITIVE. THEN ONCE PRECIP BEGINS...THE PROFILE COOLS ENOUGH            
TO REMOVE ANY CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIP. WILL KEEP JUST THE MENTION              
OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON.                              
THANKS FOR COORD WITH APX/GRR.                                                  
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1027 AM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
DISC:  15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE             
CAROLINAS/GA.                                                                   
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS NWRN                 
GA/AL. BOTH MORNING RUC/MESOETA SHOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW               
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL              
REMAIN SUNNY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLOUDS MOVING              
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE                  
AFTERNOON.  LOOKING A FORECAST AFTERNOON MAXES...BELIEVE THAT                   
NORTHERN AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES AND WILL LOWER                 
TEMPERATURES THERE INTO THE UPPER 40S. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SW              
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND COLD FRONT            
SAGS CLOSER TO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST GOOD FOR THE                        
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FCSTID =   77                                                                   
CAE   52  39  59  46 /   0  10  40  60                                          
AGS   53  36  61  45 /   0  10  40  60                                          
SSC   52  38  59  47 /   0  10  40  60                                          
OGB   53  38  61  47 /   0  10  40  60                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
LCV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
210 PM EST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY...WK RIDGING ALOFT OVER MOST OF FL WITH 2 SHORTWAVES                  
EVIDENT ON H2O VAPOR/RUC 400MB STREAMLINES. ONE IS OVER W TX WHILE              
THE OTHER IS DIVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS AREA. AT THE SFC...HI PRES               
RIDGE OVER SE U.S. WITH HIGHEST PRES CENTER RIGHT OVER SE GA AT 16Z.            
APPEARS TO BE A WK TROF OVER THE FL COASTAL WATERS (WHICH IS                    
INDICATED BY ETA SUITE OF MODELS)...AND THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED               
THE THICKNESS OF SC EVEN AS THE AREA BECOMES SMALLER AS A WHOLE.                
WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA...CONSIDERABLE AREA OF CLOUDINESS FROM N             
GA TO S AL ASSOCIATED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND RIDGE AND ISENTROPIC              
LIFT.                                                                           
PUBLIC...CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF SC DECK OVER THE ATLC MAY TAKE IT                
INTO FLAGLER COUNTY OVERNIGHT...BUT AT MOST WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY               
WITH BULK OF CLOUDS FURTHER S. MODELS AGREE THAT BULK OF CLOUDINESS             
WON'T MAKE IT INTO GA ZONES UNTIL WED...BUT WILL INDICATE INCREASING            
TREND IN EXTREME NW. SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL DIG E COAST TROF A              
BIT...BUT LITTLE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE. ATTENDANT SFC COLD                 
FRONT WILL STALL NR THE FL/GA LINE...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING                 
DIFFUSE. ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPS WITH GRADUAL               
TRENDING UPWARD. LITTLE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS             
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL FEATURES.                          
EXTENDED...GFS SUITE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PROGRESSION OF                
FEATURES...SO LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE EXCEPT FOR SOME TWEAKING OF              
TEMPS. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BUT                
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ATTM. TEMPS PROGGED TO REMAIN NR OR SLIGHTLY                
ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.                                                   
MARINE...WK ATLC TROF WILL DELAY FULL SCALE SHIFT OF WINDS TO S                 
DIRECTION. HAVE STARTED WITH MESO-ETA WINDS IN 1ST COUPLE OF                    
PERIODS...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE GFS WIND SOLUTION IN LATER PERIODS.            
ALL-IN-ALL...WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THRU MOST OF THE                        
PERIOD...WITH BRIEF INCREASES N OF THE AREA.                                    
PRELIM...                                                                       
FCSTID =   31                                                                   
AMG   37  66  50  64 /   0  30  40  40                                          
SSI   37  67  48  64 /   0   0  40  40                                          
JAX   39  71  48  68 /   0   0   0  20                                          
SGJ   43  70  49  67 /   0   0   0  20                                          
GNV   38  72  47  70 /   0   0   0  20                                          
OCF   40  72  47  72 /   0   0   0  10                                          
.JAX...                                                                         
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
CARROLL                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1048 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
WILL BE CANCELING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT              
HAD BEEN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                              
STRONG WAA CONTINUES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS MOST SITES HAVE REACHED            
AROUND 30 DEGREES AND WARMER. LATEST ETA AND RUC CONTINUE TO                    
INDICATE GOOD WARMING AND EXPECT TEMPS TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING                  
EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP OVER IOWA ASSOCIATED WITH                     
SHORTWAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 120 KT JET IS PROGGED TO                 
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER DRY LAYER AND                
TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS              
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS DELAY IN LAYER SATURATION SHOULD DECREASE             
CHANCES OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                        
DESPITE PRECIP SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH             
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAIN SHORT WAVE...MODELS SUGGEST ANY FREEZING               
PRECIP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED PRIOR TO TURNING TO SNOW. SHOULD BE ABLE TO        
STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH ONLY LOCALIZED TRAVEL PROBLEMS                
EXPECTED.                                                                       
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BARKER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1043 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
PUBLIC DISCUSSION FOR MORNING UPDATE                                            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COLUMN COOLING LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS               
SUPPORTED BY ACARS. AS PRECIP AREA ACROSS IOWA MOVES EAST...LOWER               
LAYERS MOISTEN UP AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD CHANGE ALL PRECIP              
TO SNOW. ETA/MESOETA QPF SHOWING 2 TO 3 TENTHS LIQUID BY EVENING. AS            
COLDER AIR MOVES IN EXPECT SNOW RATIOS TO INCREASE. THUS HAVE BUMPED            
TOTAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES BY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF            
FA GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPS            
HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S ALL BUT RFD AREA AND THIS SHOULD BE               
ABOUT IT AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL AFTER SNOW                  
BEGINS.                                                                         
.CHI...NONE.                                                                    
CMS                                                                             
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12 UTC TAFS...                                      
THE ACARS SOUNDING AT ROCKFORD STILL SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY                       
AIR AND AN INVERSION ABOUT 850 MB. THERE IS WARM AIR ADVECTION                  
AT 850 MB AND THE AVN AND ETA MODELS KEEP THE ADVECTION                         
THROUGH 18 UTC. WILL FORECAST FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 17 UTC.                     
THE MESO ETA AND RUC MODELS FORECAST MAXIMUM VERTICAL VELOCITY                  
ABOUT 17 TO 21 UTC. WILL FORECAST THE LOWEST CEILINGS AND                       
SNOW AT THAT TIME. CEILINGS ABOUT 600 FEET TO 1500 FEET AND                     
VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE. THE COLDER AIR COMES IN ABOUT                      
19 TO 20 UTC AND CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW.                         
THIS SYSTEM IS A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH MOST OF THE FORCING FROM                  
DIVERGENCE FROM A JET STREAM AND ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING. THE COLDEST            
AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. RADAR IS SHOWING INCREASING                
PRECIPITATION ALOFT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE                
GROUND AS THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR RISES. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN            
INCREASING IN THE TAFS AREA DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. WILL FORECAST              
A SLOW END THE SNOW LATE TONIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE               
AREA.                                                                           
WHW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1247 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
UPDATED ZONES AND ISC GRIDS TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH, AND             
BRING THEM UP SEVERAL NOTCHES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  HIGHS ALREADY              
PUSHING 60 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  ALSO, INCREASED SURFACE            
WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  IN FACT THE FAR WESTERN                  
CORRIDOR MAY COME CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF            
ON THAT FOR NOW.                                                                
FRANK                                                                           
---------------------------------------------------------------------           
STRATUS AND FOG BEGINNING TO BURN OFF ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CEN KS               
ATTM...EXCEPT SERN KS WHERE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE THICKER AND SLOWER              
TO CLEAR. 15Z RUC ALSO SHOWS BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN               
THIS AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE THIS AREA IN SW MO.  SO EXPECT             
SERN KS TO CLR LAST.  EVEN WITH MORNING CLOUDS/FOG TEMPS OFF TO A               
GOOD START ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS KS                 
TODAY...GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                 
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE GUID NUMBERS AND REACH PROJECTED HIGHS.               
SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW...BUT UPDATE CLOUD TRENDS.  NOT               
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO RSL/SLN WILL STILL MAKE 50 TO 55            
TODAY EVEN WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT.                                
UPDATE OUT AFTER 17Z OBS ARE OUT.                                               
KETCHAM                                                                         
---------------------------------------------------------------                 
325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG AND               
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEIR AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES               
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY TAME, BUT WE WILL             
HAVE TO WATCH THE SYSTEM COMING DOWN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY               
NIGHT GIVING US OUR PRECIP CHANCES.                                             
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST FOG IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM              
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THESE CLOUDS FOG WAS                    
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW VSBY ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM                 
4-5SM MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT I WOULD                   
ANTICIPATE THIS TO LOWER AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE REASONS BEING             
IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS BECOMING VERY SATURATED AS                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE IN FROM OKLAHOMA, AND VERY            
LIMITED MIXING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWEST 100M ACCORDING TO THE              
LATEST SODAR PROFILES. THIS WOULD HELP YIELD TO ADVECTION FOG IF                
THIS TREND CONTINUES. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A                
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS SUCH, WE MAY END UP               
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY            
DAYBREAK. WE WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW. THEN THE            
NEXT QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK. IT                  
APPEARS AS IF SOUTHEAST KS WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST DUE            
TO A THICKER LAYER IN PLACE. SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD             
MOST LIKELY SEE SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT IS PROGGED             
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS                 
COULD BRING FORTH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL HELP THEM GO            
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLIMB TO NEAR 60. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WE                 
PLAYED THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND PLAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.             
TONIGHT:                                                                        
THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THINGS            
SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE UP DURING THE EVENING AS 280-285K THETA                
SURFACES BEGIN RISING WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE THE CLOUDS. WE KEPT                
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS WHICH             
IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.                                                       
TOMORROW:                                                                       
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AS HIGH              
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL                
ALLOW OUR FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH MAY PROLONG THE                 
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. 285K THETA SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW SOME RISES             
WHICH MAY AID IN THE SITUATION. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSER             
TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS.                                        
TOMORROW NIGHT:                                                                 
RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AGAIN AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO            
THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE            
MID LEVELS WHICH WILL HELP YIELD TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WE WILL              
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS.                        
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                        
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT             
APPEARS THE MODELS HAVE AMPLIFIED THIS WAVE A LITTLE MORE FROM THE              
PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MAINLY              
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH COOLING             
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND                
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT.                                                         
FRIDAY-MONDAY:                                                                  
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO FLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON            
SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN, A BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH                 
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 60S. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF/UKMET              
IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NOW THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE                
RETURN WE WILL SEE. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RW- GOING FOR                      
NOW.                                                                            
FCSTID =   18/COX                                                               
ICT   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
HUT   58  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
EWK   59  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
EQA   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
WLD   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
RSL   50  26  42  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
GBD   52  26  42  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
SLN   56  28  41  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
MPR   57  28  41  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
CFV   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
CNU   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
K88   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
.ICT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1055 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                     
STRATUS AND FOG BEGINNING TO BURN OFF ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CEN KS               
ATTM...EXCEPT SERN KS WHERE CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE THICKER AND SLOWER              
TO CLEAR. 15Z RUC ALSO SHOWS BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN               
THIS AREA OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE THIS AREA IN SW MO.  SO EXPECT             
SERN KS TO CLR LAST.  EVEN WITH MORNING CLOUDS/FOG TEMPS OFF TO A               
GOOD START ACROSS THE AREA.  AS COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN ACROSS KS                 
TODAY...GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                 
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE GUID NUMBERS AND REACH PROJECTED HIGHS.               
SO WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW...BUT UPDATE CLOUD TRENDS.  NOT               
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO RSL/SLN WILL STILL MAKE 50 TO 55            
TODAY EVEN WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND WIND SHIFT.                                
UPDATE OUT AFTER 17Z OBS ARE OUT.                                               
KETCHAM                                                                         
---------------------------------------------------------------                 
325 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DENSE FOG AND               
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THIS MORNING AND THEIR AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES               
TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY TAME, BUT WE WILL             
HAVE TO WATCH THE SYSTEM COMING DOWN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY               
NIGHT GIVING US OUR PRECIP CHANCES.                                             
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST FOG IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN FROM              
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THESE CLOUDS FOG WAS                    
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW VSBY ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM                 
4-5SM MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, BUT I WOULD                   
ANTICIPATE THIS TO LOWER AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THE REASONS BEING             
IS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS BECOMING VERY SATURATED AS                    
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE IN FROM OKLAHOMA, AND VERY            
LIMITED MIXING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWEST 100M ACCORDING TO THE              
LATEST SODAR PROFILES. THIS WOULD HELP YIELD TO ADVECTION FOG IF                
THIS TREND CONTINUES. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A                
DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE AS SUCH, WE MAY END UP               
ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS BY            
DAYBREAK. WE WILL HIT IT HARD IN THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW. THEN THE            
NEXT QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE WHEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK. IT                  
APPEARS AS IF SOUTHEAST KS WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS THE LONGEST DUE            
TO A THICKER LAYER IN PLACE. SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD             
MOST LIKELY SEE SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. MEANWHILE, THE FRONT IS PROGGED             
TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS                 
COULD BRING FORTH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WHICH WILL HELP THEM GO            
ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLIMB TO NEAR 60. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, WE                 
PLAYED THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND PLAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS.             
TONIGHT:                                                                        
THE MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THINGS            
SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE UP DURING THE EVENING AS 280-285K THETA                
SURFACES BEGIN RISING WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE THE CLOUDS. WE KEPT                
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS WHICH             
IS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.                                                       
TOMORROW:                                                                       
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AS HIGH              
PRESSURE GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL                
ALLOW OUR FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH MAY PROLONG THE                 
CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER. 285K THETA SURFACES ALSO DO SHOW SOME RISES             
WHICH MAY AID IN THE SITUATION. WE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSER             
TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS.                                        
TOMORROW NIGHT:                                                                 
RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AGAIN AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO            
THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE            
MID LEVELS WHICH WILL HELP YIELD TO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WE WILL              
KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS.                        
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT:                                                        
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT             
APPEARS THE MODELS HAVE AMPLIFIED THIS WAVE A LITTLE MORE FROM THE              
PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF MAINLY              
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH COOLING             
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND                
SOME INSTABILITY ALOFT.                                                         
FRIDAY-MONDAY:                                                                  
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO FLY OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS ON            
SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN, A BIG WARM UP IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH                 
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING THE 60S. IT APPEARS THE ECMWF/UKMET              
IS COMING IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW             
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NOW THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE                
RETURN WE WILL SEE. WE HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF RW- GOING FOR                      
NOW.                                                                            
FCSTID =   18/COX                                                               
ICT   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
HUT   58  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
EWK   59  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
EQA   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
WLD   60  29  43  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
RSL   50  26  42  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
GBD   52  26  42  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
SLN   56  28  41  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
MPR   57  28  41  25 /   5   0   0  10                                          
CFV   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
CNU   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
K88   55  29  42  27 /   5   0   0  10                                          
.ICT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
350 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2003                                                      
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN TIMING             
AND STRENGTH OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT CWA ON THURSDAY.                      
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST                
NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  WEAK SLP MINIMUM              
LOCATED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH WEAK INVERTED                    
PRESSURE TROUGH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  BRUNT OF COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS                       
AFTERNOON.  RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR                
TONIGHT AS VORT LOBE WILL DROP INTO REGION FROM ALBERTA TOWARDS                 
MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE PASSING EAST OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE AXIS AND GETTING SHEARED OUT.                                             
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CWA ASSOCIATED               
WITH COLD ADVECTION.  A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE                 
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN             
THE 850-800 HPA LAYER NOTED IN RUC/MESO-ETA DATA WITH APPROACH OF               
THIS SHORT WAVE WITH AXIS OF THIS FORCING LIKELY TO SET UP FROM                 
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  LOW               
LEVEL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL                
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH MORE OF MID LEVEL FOCUS TO LIFT ACROSS THE                    
NORTHEAST.  MIXING RATIOS STILL AROUND 3 G/KG ACROSS SOUTHWEST CWA              
AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FRONTO FORCING WILL CALL FOR AT LEAST                
HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF CWA.  WILL GO WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS            
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON COLD SIDE OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY            
WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.  MODELS GENERATING AROUND 0.15 INCHES OF              
LIQUID IN NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS FORCING...BUT UPSTREAM RADAR             
TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE MODELS OVERDOING QPF AND STILL SOME               
UNCERTAINTY OF EXACTLY HOW SHORT WAVES WILL PHASE TONIGHT.                      
COLD AIR FINALLY SEEPS ACROSS REST OF AREA TOMORROW WITH PASSAGE OF             
THIS SHORT WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.              
MODELS DEPICTING SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING DURING             
AFTERNOON AND WILL GO WITH DECREASING CLOUD TREND FROM NORTH TO                 
SOUTH.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR 10 ACROSS FAR             
NORTHEAST TO MID 20S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST.                                      
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY                
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.  WITH WARM                   
ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WILL GO WITH                  
NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING WORDING.  ETA/GFS DISAGREE WITH                  
DETAILS OF ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE FOR THURSDAY BUT OVERALL TIMING             
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR.  BUFFER DATA INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR               
EVEN SOME FREEZING PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN CWA.  WILL KEEP                
RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE IN LATER                 
FORECASTS.  BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...THIS SHORT WAVE EXITS AREA WITH            
SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE...BUT UPSTREAM LOW LEVEL              
TEMPS IN SOUTHWEST CANADA REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND CAA WILL BE                
RELATIVELY WEAK.                                                                
...LONG TERM...                                                                 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY PART OF EXTENDED. FRIDAY             
MORNING THE SFC TROF/COLD FRONT EXITS EAST OF CWA WITH BUILDING SFC             
HIGH AND BUILDING 5H AND 7H RIDGE TO WEST. DRYING TAKES PLACE                   
THROUGH THE LAYERS...HOPEFULLY LETTING THE CWA SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY             
THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS OVERDONE THE LIGHT SNOW FCST HERE...AND              
CHOSE TO REMAIN DRY...SIMILAR TO CANADIAN AND NOGAPS SOLNS. WITH                
NICE TEMP RECOVERY ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD             
THE WARMER FMR GUIDANCE ALL AREAS.                                              
FOR SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN WITH 5H AND 7H                 
TROFS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE 85H THERMAL RIDGE PASSES                   
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A SFC WARM FRONT MOVES            
EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THE SAME TIME. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES WRN                
NEB/ERN WY BY END OF DAY SATURDAY...WITH VERY STRONG WAA TAKING                 
PLACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PCPN TYPE IS A CONCERN HERE. COULD BE              
SIMILAR TO THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURRED MONDAY...WHERE                
SNOW BREAKS OUT PRE-FRONTAL...THEN MIXED PSBL CLOSER TO FRONT. FOR              
NOW...WILL MENTION CHANCE OF SNOW NRN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...TURNING                
OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WAA PUSHES MERCURY ABOVE FREEZING            
TEMPS.                                                                          
MODELS HAVE SOME TROUBLE SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL GFS EXTENDED SWINGS 5H             
TROF THROUGH MIDWEST...WITH BEST ENERGY SOUTH TOWARD OK/KS/TX                   
REGION. GFS ENSEMBLES PAINT A DIFFERENT PICTURE AND SEEM MORE IN                
LINE WITH CANADIAN/ECMWF/NEAR TERM GFS. UPPER TROF DROPS INTO WRN               
NEBRASKA WITH SFC LOW MOVING EAST THROUGH NEBRASKA DURING DAY ON                
SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE WITH THIS FORECAST...ALL WHICH               
POINT TOWARD PSBL SNOWSTORM FOR CWA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AMOUNT OF              
WAA TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF LOW MAY KEEP MAJORITY OF PCPN AS RAIN                 
BEFORE CHANGING OVER LATER SUNDAY. 5H THICKNESS VALUES DON'T FALL               
BELOW 540 UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP CHC SNOW                   
MENTION AND SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT.                                           
FOR MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN RED RIVER VALLEY HELPING             
TO DRY THINGS OUT A BIT. LEE TROFING OUT WEST WILL BRING BACK CHC OF            
LIGHT SNOW TO WRN CWA MONDAY. NO REAL ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH              
FEATURE...AND NOT THAT HIGH OF CONFIDENCE IN FCST.                              
BY TUESDAY...NEXT IN SERIES OF 5H WAVES DROP INTO CWA...WITH ASSOC              
SFC LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO AREA AS WELL. TEMPS HERE COULD BE TRICKY            
DUE TO WAA AHEAD OF LOW. AS 7H TROF DROPS INTO CWA...SHOULD BE ABLE             
TO WRING OUT A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW...SO HAVE INCLUDED THE CHC.                   
TEMP WISE...THROUGH SUNDAY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER FMR GUIDANCE.               
HOWEVER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE AND GENERALLY STUCK             
CLOSE TO.                                                                       
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MARSILI/HINTZ                                                                   
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