AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA                                       
900 AM PST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
CLOSED UPPER LOW OUT NEAR 38N/130W IS MOVING DUE EAST.                          
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND IS                       
CURRENTLY CROSSING 125W HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE              
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS A JET MAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW             
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES. TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS            
THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN. THIS SYSTEM IS DEFINITELY              
MOVING FASTER THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. RADAR IS                  
DETECTING RAINFALL ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THE RAIN BAND           
IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE SONOMA             
COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z              
RUN OF THE ETA AND 06Z RUN OF THE PACRUC MODEL WHICH BOTH SHOW                  
RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN SONOMA COUNTY BY 21Z AND THEN EAST TO THE                
DELTA AND SOUTH TO MONTEREY BAY BY 00Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE           
POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN NORTH AND WEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL           
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INLAND AND           
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A             
GOOD SHEAR PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET. THERE SHOULD BE                
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3500-             
4000 FEET...LOW ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.              
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR 50N/150W WILL BE            
WHAT KEEPS OUR CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST. IT WILL DROP INTO THE                    
PACIFIC NW AND FAR NRN CA ON SUNDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD                
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY               
WEATHER BACK TO OUR REGION BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY.             
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES           
AIM AT THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN CA.                                              
STS/SFO 896  LVK/SJC 796  MRY 686.                            DYKEMA            
.SFO...TDA...SCA...POINT ARENA TO POINT SUR.                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO                                            
145 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
TRACE OF SNOW LAST NIGHT AT BURNS AS UPPER LOW OPENED UP AND MOVED              
MAINLY SOUTH TO N AND FASTER THAN 12Z RUNS - WAS OVER MOUTH OF                  
COLUMBIA AT 12Z INSTEAD OF CLOSER TO 18Z - NOW WELL NW OF BOISE                 
CWFA.  LATEST RUC IS EVEN FASTER THAN AVN AND BRINGS IN H5 LOW TO               
NEAR SFO AT 6Z WITH AVN STILL A BIT OFFSHORE.  SO WILL GO WITH AVN'S            
FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.                                                 
THAT UPPER LOW OFF SFO THIS AFTERNOON HAS STRONGER WESTERLY KICKER              
WITH SPEED MAX AROUND 38N FROM 165W TOWARD 145W, FAVORING FASTER AVN            
SOLUTION (LOW NEAR ELKO MIDDAY SUNDAY) OVER SLOWER ETA FOR SYSTEM               
(LOW CLOSER TO SHASTA MIDDAY SUNDAY).  WE HAVE A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE              
OVER ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW UPPER LOW TO MOVE IN (BUT STILL                 
WEAKEN) AND THE STRONGER KICKER SHOULDN'T BE DISCOUNTED EVEN THOUGH             
IT TURNS FROM A WRLY SPEED MAX INTO A NWRLY MAX DIVING DOWN THE BACK            
SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LOW.  SO WILL GO WITH AVN WHICH MEANS                   
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.                                                      
ON SUNDAY HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS-HIGHLANDS WILL GO               
LIKELY RAIN WITH 1-3" SNOW ABOVE 5K'...HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM ONO-BOI            
AND MID CHC POPS BKE TOWARDS TWF. PLAN A 20 POP FOR MYL SUNDAY WITH             
SRN TRACK OF NEXT UPPER LOW...BUT WITH RIDGE OVER ROCKIES MAY SEE               
MORE ENERGY OVER SW IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                     
UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVER SE IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOR SUNDAY EVENING            
PLAN TO GO  LIKELY FOR SRN ID MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRE AS WELL AS EAST             
OF BOISE IN UPR T.V.  PLAN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE NW                
PART OF THE CWA.  THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MORE IN THE NRN BRANCH             
CROSSING INTO EASTER OREGON TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY THEN ACROSS MYL-BOI            
AROUND NOONTIME...WITH SCT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS.  AVN IS            
A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER BOTH THE 00Z MRF AND 12Z ETA AS             
THE AVN IS CARRYING (AT 18Z MONDAY) THE H5 546DM COUNTOUR S OF BOISE            
WHILE THE ETA HAS IT WAY UP IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.  CHANCE POPS                
EVERYWHERE EAST OF BNO (20 POP) MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.                       
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST WARM ADVECTION              
WITH THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES BY TUESDAY MORNING                  
PROBABLY WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES-FLURRIES INTO SE OREGON BY MORNING.               
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A "GOOD" PRECIP MAKER WITH LIKELY                
POPS AND RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT STILL SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION                    
EXPECTED TUESDAY.  HIGHEST POPS NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE.              
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER SE OREGON ALL TUESDAY AND OVER SW                 
IDAHO FOR 'AFTERNOON' PER AVN/MRF MODEL SOLUTIONS, QPF, AND MEXMOS              
EVEN THO IT'S DAY 3.  ASSOCIATED CD FNT COMES NOW RIGHT ON THE HEELS            
OF THE WARMFRONT CROSSING SE OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MAGIC             
VALLEY PROBABLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                        
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEHIND                 
CDFNT.  RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT MOIST WAA IS ADVERTISED IN 12Z             
AVN MAINLY TOWARDS CASCADES SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT STILL FOR                    
THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SW IDAHO                 
VALLEYS AND OWYHEES-HIGHLANDS.  WILL STICK WITH CURRENT EXTENDED A              
BIT COOLER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER JET                
AXIS AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR SOME TIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT            
AND FRIDAY AND COLD TROFFINESS LINGERS OVER THE CWFA SATURDAY THOUGH            
SOME DRY RIDGING WORKS INTO HARNEY CO TOWARDS NEXT SATURDAY.                    
.BOI...NONE.                                                                    
MILLS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
617 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
EVENING UPDATE:                                                                 
LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS...MUCH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF            
THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS DISSIPATED. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF           
CLOUD COVER IS UP ACROSS WISCONSIN...AND OVER NORTH AND EAST INDIANA.           
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RUC...THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRATO-CU            
AFFECTING OUR NE COUNTIES EXISTS LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT THE BETTER            
MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SO...WILL BACK OFF ON                   
CLOUDS...AND GO PARTLY CLOUDY NE COUNTIES...AND MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR           
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. DISCUSSION FOR THE REST OF THE                
AFTERNOON ISSUED FORECAST PACKAGE IS BELOW.                                     
NOLES                                                                           
AFTERNOON DISCUSSION:                                                           
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE SYSTEMS COMING THROUGH                 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.                  
12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AVN SEEMS A              
TAD WETTER WITH EACH OF THE TWO UPCOMING SYSTEMS...BUT OVERALL                  
HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES VERY SIMILAR. SFC AND ASSOC UPPER LOW            
CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE                
REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DOMINATE                
THROUGH MONDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AHEAD THE NEXT               
SYSTEM. BY THEN THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA AND             
A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW US             
WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND                      
CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. LIFTED INDICES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS                
SYSTEM BUT SHOWALTER INDICES MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                  
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF TRW ON TUESDAY BUT WILL DOWNPLAY               
SOMEWHAT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY SEE A FEW                 
SPRINKLES IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT                
WAVE. ON THURSDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN              
PLAINS WILL PUSH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE CWA. MRF/AVN BOTH CRANKING               
OUT LIGHT QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LAST NIGHT'S MRF SHOWS PRECIP TO             
BE ALL RAIN AND AVN CRITICAL THICKNESSES WOULD INDICATE SNOW OVER               
THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. FOR THIS SYSTEM BOTH THE FMR/MEX GUIDANCE               
GIVING TEMPS TOO WARM FOR SNOW...SO FOR THIS TIME AROUND WILL                   
MENTION RAIN ONLY FOR THURSDAY. PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL END ON             
FRIDAY AND CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE PRECIP ENDING AS LIGHT SNOW            
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.                                                            
GUIDANCE NOT TOO FAR APART...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER AVN/FAN            
SIDE.                                                                           
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
PACKETT                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE IS THE AMNT OF SHSN THIS AFTN AND                
TNGT.                                                                           
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SHRTWV MOV OVR CWA THIS AM. KMQT-88D SHOWING               
THIS SHRTWV DEPOSITING -SHSN ACRS THE CWA. A LTL STRONGER ACTIVITY              
IS OVR WI. KINL AM RAOBS SHOWING A DRY LYR NR SFC...AND MOIST ARND              
775MB. SFC ANLYS DEPICTING A LOW CENTER OVR CNTRL LWR MI AND A LARGE            
RDG STRETCHING ACRS N PLAINS...MAN...INTO HUDSON BAY. A CDFNT                   
REMAINS N OF LK SUPERIOR OVR ONT.                                               
RUC/MESOETA ANLYS SHOWING THE WEAK SHRTWV PASSING OVR THE CWA THIS              
MRNG WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER THIS EVE. RUC/MESO-ETA/AVN             
ALL POINT TO KEEPING THE CDFNT OVR LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN BEFORE                 
SLIDING IT OFF TO THE E WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RDG. LAKE-850MB                
DELTA-T'S WILL INCR TO 16C ACRS N LK SUPERIOR. LOW LVL WNDS CONVRGNC            
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH TO CONT LES ACRS CWA. ETA FCST                    
SOUNDING DATA INDC BASE OF INVRSN ARND 900MB (2K FT). CAA WILL BRING            
THE INVRSN UP TO 500MB (3.1K FT). CYC FLOW AHEAD OF N PLAINS RDG                
WILL KEEP WNDS OUT OF THE N THIS AFTN. 850-700MB Q-VEC SHOWING                  
MAINLY DVRGNC ACRS CWA THIS AFTN AND 280K ISENTROPIC ANLYS DEPICT               
SUBSIDENCE. ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMES FM LOW LVL (925MB) WND                    
CNVRGENCE. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAK. AVN A LTL STRONGER WITH THIS LES               
EVENT...DEPICTING DELTA-T'S ARND 17C AND SOME BLYR WND DIVERGENCE BY            
00Z SUN. MESO-ETA/RUC SUPPORTS ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS                          
AFTN...WHEREAS...AVN SUG 2 TO 4 INCHES. A COMPROMISE OF 1 TO 3                  
INCHES STILL LOOK REASON FOR LES PRONE AREAS OF E U.P. THUS WILL                
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING.                                                        
AVN INCR DELTA-T'S BY MIDNGT TO AROUND 19C ...HOWEVER...SHOW A LOSS             
OF LOW LVL CONVRNGNC. AVN SOUNDING FCST SHOWING NR SATURATION BLO               
850MB THU 06Z. SFC RDG WILL MOV INTO W LK SUPERIOR BY SR...DRYING               
OUT THE LOW LVLS. MESO-ETA DEPICTING A LTL WRMR AT 850MB. WEAK 925MB            
WND CNVRGNC CONT OVR E LK SUPERIOR TIL 06Z. LTL STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY            
WILL MOV ACRS CWA OVRNGT. ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING MAINLY                       
SUBSIDENCE. Q-VEC HAS ONLY WEAK CONVGNC BY 12Z. ALL IN ALL IT                   
APPEARS THAT LES WILL CONT TIL MIDNGT...BUT TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY              
BY SR. 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THIS EVE OVR E CWA. LES WILL TAPER TO             
FLURIES WHEN THE SFC RDG MOV ACRS CWA SUN MRNG AS WNDS WILL BCM LGT             
AND VARIABLE. WILL KEEP LES GOING FOR THIS EVE.                                 
LES WILL END AS WNDS VEERING S. AVN/ETA SHOWING WAA ABV 850MB...WILL            
ALSO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE U.P. ON SUN. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND               
NICELY TO ARND 30 ON SUN.                                                       
.MQT...LES ADVY THIS AFTN/TNGT MIZ005-006.                                      
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1104 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                     
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LAKE HURON TO             
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATER             
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                            
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND                    
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS LED TO AREAS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN              
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL                 
DEFORMATION HAS ALLOWED THE SNOWFALL TO BE ORIENTED IN A BANDED                 
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST             
SNOWFALL BETWEEN FLINT AND THE TRI CITIES...WITH MOST OF METRO                  
DETROIT SEEING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE MORNING             
HOURS. PRECIP COVERAGE ON KGRR RADAR HOWEVER HAS ALREADY INCREASED              
AS THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST HEADS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING                  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
THE 12Z MESO ETA AND LATEST RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THE FASTER                    
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. COLD FRONT IS              
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA THE AFTERNOON...REACHING DETROIT              
BY 21Z...WITH THE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO SWING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA              
BY THIS TIME. FORCING SHOULD THUS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MESO ETA IS PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP              
IN SW LOWER...AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE 1-96 AND 1-69 CORRIDORS EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCH IN THESE AREAS BEFORE              
SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF MID AFTERNOON.                                              
WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD NOT STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT             
READINGS.                                                                       
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
251 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                                        
FCST PROBLEM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING LES THIS MORNING AND TEMPS               
TODAY. LATEST 88D/S FROM AROUND LM SHOWING A CONVERGENT AREA OVR                
MID LAKE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FINAL S/W PIVOTING THROUGH BACK SIDE OF            
UPPER TROF. RESIDUAL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DELTA T VALUES              
AROUND 14C AND LONG NW FETCH YIELDING A DECENT SNOW BAND OVR MID                
LAKE THAT IS TRYING TO BECOME SINGLE BAND AS SFC WIND FIELD IS                  
BECOMING CONVERGENT. FCST PROBLEM IS WHERE WILL THIS AREA OF SNOW GO            
AND HOW LONG WILL IT LAST. LATEST RUC NOT HANDLING AREA WELL AND 00Z            
MESOETA GENERATES SOME H8 UPWARD MOTION BTWN 09Z AND 15Z OVR SRN LM.            
WL CONT WITH SCT SNOW SHOWER WORDING FOR THIS MORNING IN COUNTIES               
NEAREST LAKE. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NRLY...BULK OF THIS BAND WILL             
BE CONFINED TO WRN BERRIEN...WRN ST. JOE AND LAPORTE COUNTIES. WITH             
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE QUICKLY DRYING AND BANDS NOT SETTING UP IN ANY                
SINGLE LOCATION...EXPECT AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BLO AN INCH. BUFKIT                  
INDICATES INVERSION TO FINALLY CRASH AFTER 15Z WITH GD DRYING AND               
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SNOW TO END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MID MORNING                 
AS S/W EXITS REGION. SFC RIDGE MOVES IN FOR TONIGHT AND CLR SKIES               
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW A GD DROP IN TEMPS. WAA AT H8 BUT THIS               
SHLD BE CUT OFF FM SFC WITH INVERSION. STRONG SW FLOW MONDAY TO                 
KICK WINDS UP AND WARM TEMPS WELL INTO 40S. BOTH AVN AND ETA                    
INDICATE STRONG H8 JET OF 55KT MOVING INTO WRN AREAS MON NIGHT. WL              
ADD LOW CHC POP FOR THIS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS JET             
MORE INTO NRN IL AS S/W DIGS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS.                          
EXTENDED DISCUSSION...                                                          
UNCERTAINTY IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR UPCOMING WEEK. STRENGTH AND              
TIMING OF S/W TROFS DIFFICULT. WL CONT WITH CURRENT FCST.                       
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
LASHLEY/SKIP                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW ERN TROF DOWNSTREAM OF               
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV DIGGING SE            
THRU THE LWR LKS ATTM HAS DRIVEN COLDER AIR S OVR LK SUP...WITH H85             
TEMPS AS LO AS -16C OVR LK SUP. NCEP DISCUSSION INDICATES MODELS                
HAVE UNDERDONE STRENGTH OF UPR JET ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV.                      
COMBINATION OF COLD AIR BLOWING ACRS LK SUP AND LK INDUCED TROF/SFC             
CNVGC NR THE SRN SHORE OF LK SUP HAS ALLOWED THE DVLPMNT OF NMRS WND            
PARALLEL LES BANDS IN 350 FLOW DEPICTED ON MQT VWP...WHICH INDICATES            
INVRN HGT ARND 7K FT MSL. EARLIER EXIT OF COLDER CLDS ASSOCIATED                
WITH SHRTWV SUGS ACTIVITY IS NOW PURE LES. MOST INTENSE BAND WITH               
24-28DBZ RETURNS MOVG FM WRN ALGER INTO ERN MQT COUNTY AT 05Z. BANDS            
TENDING TO MIGRATE SLOWLY W WITH TIME AS LLVL FLOW TENDING TO VEER              
MORE NE OVR ERN LK SUP... RESULTING IN OBSVD CLD DISSIPATION ACRS               
ERN LK SUP IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF SRN ONTARIO. BANDS OVR WRN LK SUP              
LOOK LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN OVR THE E WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DRIER              
AIR IN ONTARIO AND SHORTER FETCH IN NLY FLOW LIMITING                           
DESTABILIZATION. DWPTS FALL BLO ZERO IN ONTARIO...AND 00Z YPL SDNG              
SHOWS INVRN DOWN TO H9 UNDER RDG STRETCHING FM ONTARIO INTO THE                 
CNTRL PLAINS. 100M H5 HGT RISES BTWN 12Z AND 00Z AHD OF SHRTWV RDG              
NR LK WINNIPEG AND NVA IN WAKE OF DIGGING SHRTWV. SFC-H7 WAD ON BACK            
SIDE OF THIS RDG ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO HGT RISES/OBSVD PRES FALLS IN             
CNTRL CAN. ANOTHER SHRTWV COMING ASHORE IN CA. LES BANDS BEGINNING              
TO DIMINISH AS ZONE ISSUANCE APRCHS AT 09Z.                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE LES/CLD TRENDS TNGT...TEMPS AND             
WNDS TNGT...THEN IMPACT OF APRCHG SYS FM CA MON-TUE.                            
FOR TDAY...MODELS SHOW STRG H5 NVA/H7 DVM AHD OF PROGRESSIVE RDG                
RESULTING IN FCST NRLY 120M H5 HGT RISE OVR CWA TDAY WITH INVRN HGT             
LWRG AOB 3K FT THIS MRNG. SFC RDG PROGGED TO SHIFT ESE TO THE CNTRL             
LKS BY 00Z MON...WITH A FAIRLY STRG SWLY GRADIENT FLOW DVLPG OVR THE            
WRN HALF OF FA BY END OF DAY AND ADVCTG COLD AIR SLOWLY E. MODELS               
FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON SHIFTING COLD AIR E...H85 TEMPS FCST TO INCRS              
TO -1C AT IWD TO -8C AT ANJ BY 00Z MON. BUT SINCE UPR JET ASSOCIATED            
WITH SHRTWV NOW DIGGING THRU LKS STRGR THAN ANALYZD BY MODELS...COLD            
AIR MAY BE MORE RESILIENT AS LO PRES DVLPMNT TO E MAY BE MORE                   
INTENSE AND BLOCK EWD PROGRESSION A BIT MORE THAN FCST. XPCT LK                 
CLDS/SHSN TO LINGER THIS MRNG NR LK SUP...ESPECIALLY OVR ERN MQT/WRN            
ALGER WHERE ETA SHOWS PERSISTENT H925 CNVGC THRU 15Z. HOWEVER...                
SINCE RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHSN DIMINISHING AND H925 CNVGC FCST TO                 
WEAKEN STEADILY AFTR 09Z WITH RISING PRES...WL ALLOW LES ADVY TO                
EXPIRE. ONCE FLOW TURNS TO SW...XPCT LK CLD/SHSN TO DSPT. A LTL                 
CONCERNED ETA FCST SNDGS INDICATE LLVL MSTR WL BE TRAPPED BLO INVRN             
ARND 2K FT MSL IN WEAK H925 CNVGC OVR NCNTRL ZNS MUCH OF DAY WITH               
SHARPER UPR JET...BUT WL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARD INCRSG SUN THIS AFTN             
WITH STRGR OFFSHORE FLOW DVLPG AFTR 18Z. HAVE LWRD FCST MAX A BIT               
CLOSER TO MOS FCST BASED ON ETA FCST SDNGS SHOWING STRG INVRN ABV H9            
TEMP HARD PRESSED TO REACH -8C EVEN AT IWD LATE IN THE DAY.                     
HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF STRGR PRES GRADIENT OVR THE W WL ALLOW MORE                
MIXING ABV H9 AND HIER TEMPS.                                                   
AVN/ETA SHOW WEAK SHRTWVS PRESSING E ACRS SRN CAN FLATTENING UPR RDG            
OVR THE LKS TNGT WITH INCRSG ACYC SWLY GRADIENT FLOW. FCST SNGS SHOW            
VERY DRY MID LVLS...SO XPCT ONLY PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF               
SHRTWVS. MIN TEMPS OVR THE ERN ZNS WL BE TRICKY AS EARLY RADIATIONAL            
COOLING MAY SET UP AN INVRN EARLY THAT IS MORE RESILIENT TO MIXING              
ONCE THE STRGR PRES GRADIENT AND HI CLDS MOVE IN...ESPECIALLY IF                
PROGRESSION OF WHOLE PATTERN IS SLOWED BY DEEPENING TROF TO THE E.              
WL MAINTAIN THE GOING WIDE SPREAD IN FCST MINS HERE WITH THE LO                 
RANGE OF FCST CLOSER TO LWR FWC FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR PLACES THAT CAN             
DECOUPLE EARLY. MENTIONED RISING TEMPS LATE AS ETA SHOWS WNDS AT 1K             
FT INCRSG TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVRNGT. OVR THE W...ARRIVAL OF HIER                 
WND/HI CLDS WL BE EARLIER...SO RELATIVELY LTL DIURNAL TEMP DROP WITH            
LESS SPRD IN MIN TEMPS. HIER AVN MOS FCST LOOKS RSNBL HERE.                     
ATTENTION ON MON TURNS TO APRCH OF SHRTWV NOW COMING ASHORE IN CA.              
AVN STILL MOST AGGRESSIVE AT PUNCHING PCPN INTO THE CWA LATE IN THE             
DAY. BUT WITH TENDENCY FOR STRGR UPR JET TO AMPLIFY TROF OVR THE E              
MORE THAN MODELS FCST AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...FAVOR SLOWER                 
ETA/CAN FCST ARRIVAL OF PCPN UNTIL MON NGT. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FM             
ALL ZNS ON MON. ETA FCST RH ON 305K ISENTROPIC SFC (ARND H5) INCRSG             
ABV 70 PCT ONLY DURG THE AFTN WITH DRY AIR HANGING IN BLO...SO HAVE             
MENTIONED SOME EARLY SUNSHINE FADING BEHIND INCRSG HI CLDS AFTR NOON.           
TEMPS WL START THE DAY ON THE HI SIDE. WITH FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT               
FLOW AND JUST FILTERED SUNSHINE TO PROMOTE MIXING...HAVE OPTED TO               
FCST MAX TEMPS ABV MOS GUIDANCE AS H85 TEMPS FCST TO RISE TO ARND 2C            
DURG THE DAY. ETA FCST SDNGS SUG MAX TEMP OF 46 AT IWD...THINK THIS             
TOO HI BUT THAT LO 40S RSNBL THERE. PLACES THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH SW               
FLOW WL ALSO SEE READINGS GOING ABV MOS GUIDANCE...BUT COOLING OFF              
LK MI WL RETARD WRMG IN THE E.                                                  
UPR TROF PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MON NGT...WITH SFC              
LO MOVG TO NEAR MKC BY 12Z TUE. INCRSG SWLY FLOW AHD OF TROF...WITH             
AVN AND ETA SHOWING SSW H85 WND INCRSG NR 50 KTS BY MON NGT OVR THE             
MID MS VALLEY...WL OPEN GLFMEX MSTR. ETA SHOWS PW IN THE NW LKS                 
INCRSG OVR 0.60 INCHES DURG MON NGT...AND FCST SDNGS SHOW DEEP                  
SATURATION ACHIEVED OVR THE ENTIRE CWA OVRNGT. ETA INDICATES UPR                
DVGC/DPVA AHD OF SHRTWV LIFTING NE FM THE MAIN TROF AND IN RRQ OF               
90KT H3 JET IN ONTARIO THAT FORMS IN CONFLUENT FLOW BTWN RDG AHD OF             
PLAINS SHRTWV AND BASE OF TROF OVR HUDSON BAY ENHANCING LIFT. FOCUS             
FOR PCPN SHUD BE LLVL CNVGC ALG INVERTED TROF THAT DVLPS OVR CWA...             
WITH PCPN FAVORED ON COLD SIDE OF THIS TROF. LOOKS LIKE A MIXED PCPN            
EVENT AT LEAST AT THE ONSET WITH WARM AIR FM THE PRIOR DAY'S HTG AND            
SFC DWPTS RISING TOWARD 30 FVRG AT LEAST SOME RA. FCST SDNGS OF                 
RATHER UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE BEFORE PCPN ARRIVES WITH LACK OF INVRN               
REDUCE CHC OF FZRA OR PL...SO JUST A DETERMINATION OF RA VS SN. AS              
THE SFC HI PRES IN CAN UNDER THE UPR CONFLUENCE BUILDS ON TUE...                
LLVL COLD AIR APPEARS POISED TO OOZE INTO CWA AS INVERTED TROF                  
PRESSES SLOWLY SE UNDER THE WEIGHT OF THIS COLD AIR. MORE EFFICIENT             
EVAP COOLING ABV THE NR SFC LYR WL ALSO AID IN THE GRDL CHG OF PCPN             
TOWARD ALL SN BY LATE MON NGT AND ON TUE BEFORE ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR              
FM THE NW DIMINISHES THE PCPN.                                                  
COORDINATED WITH GRB/APX.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
330 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND APPROACHING STORM             
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK.                                                          
IN THE SHORT TERM...LINGERING BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG LAKE FRONT SHOULD            
NOT LAST MUCH INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ETA/AVN/NGM/RUC LOW LEVEL             
MOISTURE PROGS REPLACE MOIST AIRMASS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AFTER 12Z.             
IN ADDITION PROGS MORE INSISTENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH MID LEVEL               
DRYING AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. SO WILL STILL GO WITH               
SUNNY FORECAST FOR TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE TO NEUTRALIZE COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION AND WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE                  
NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY.                                                        
IN THE FAR TERM...AFTER A QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO              
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NGM ODD PROG OUT AT THE MOMENT AS             
IT DEVELOPS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA  BY MONDAY                   
EVENING...WHILE ETA/AVN FAVOR WESTERN KANSAS. REGARDLESS...AT THIS              
TIME ETA/AVN PROGS AND TIME CROSS SECTIONS STILL POINT TO MONDAY                
NIGHT AS EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION. 1000/500 MILLIBAR              
THICKNESS AND 850 MILLIBAR PROGS MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP RAIN             
ONLY IN FORECAST WITH APPROACH OF SYSTEM. SPC DAY 2 FORECAST PUTS CWA           
IN GENERAL THUNDER FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LI PROGS FAVOR AN AXIS MORE                
WEST OF CWA...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER FOR NOW.                              
IN THE FAR FAR TERM...AVN PROG TAKES SYSTEM ACROSS WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS           
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT DEEPENS LOW. 1000/500            
MILLIBAR THICKNESS PROGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MAINLY RAIN AND SOME              
WET SNOW FOR CWA. BUT WITH INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM THIS MAY BE                
OVERDONE AS EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING TO TAKE PLACE EARLIER. SO THIS               
SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING EVEN FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.                              
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
0...0.../.../...0.../                                                           
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1014 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                     
DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. SOME LEE TROUGHING IS                  
HELPING TO LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BELIEVE THE ETA AND RUC             
ARE CORRECT IN KEEPING WIND BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS              
AFTERNOON. PLAN TO RAISE THIS AFTERNOON/S HIGH TEMPERATURES ONE                 
CATEGORY BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.                   
FCSTID = 5                                                                      
CAE   58  27  57  27 /   0   0   0   0                                          
AGS   59  26  58  26 /   0   0   0   0                                          
SSC   58  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0                                          
OGB   59  28  58  28 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA                                         
950 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
UPPER AIR INOP THRU TUES MORN.                                                  
MAIN CONCERNS THIS AFTN WITH WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE RIDGES AND                  
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL AS FINAL S/W ROTATES THRU ARND BASE OF UPR TROF.               
THIS IMPULSE INDICATED WELL BY SATL PICS WITH NEXT ROUND OF                     
CLDNS/-SHSN MOVG SEWD THRU SRN OH/WVA ATTM. LATEST MESO-ETA QUITE               
EXPANSIVE WITH PRECIP CVRG ESPCLY SE WVA...WHILE RUC/AVN APR MORE ON            
TRACK WITH ADTNL AMTS OF ARND AN INCH OR SO AS BEST RH LOOKS TO                 
PASS JUST N THIS AFTN. THUS WILL CONT WITH HIGH CHC POPS SE WVA WITH            
BUFFER LOW CHC -SHSN IN BTWN THERE AND THE NRV WHERE WILL ONLY HAVE             
FLURRY MENTION. ELSW...DOWNSLOPE TO TAPER CLDNS BUT WITH VORT APCHG             
WILL GO GNRLY PRTLY SNY SERN TIER. PROGGED MODEL PRES RISES A BIT               
WEAK ATTM BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE/CAA AND CURRENT MSAS PRES               
RISES APCHG PLAN TO CONT NPW WITH AFTN MIXING KICKING IN. WILL ALSO             
NEED TO WATCH SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RDG TWD MID AFTN FOR HIGHER                  
SPEEDS OTRW WILL CONT WINDY/BRZY WORDING AND NOT EXPAND ADVSRY ATTM.            
TEMPS GNRLY ON TRACK WITH RANGE FROM ARND 50 SE PER DOWNSLOPE                   
WARMING TO NEAR 30 SE WVA WHERE CLDNS/SHSN WILL PREVAIL.                        
.RNK...                                                                         
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM FOR ZONES NCZ003>006...NCZ019>020.           
WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES NCZ001>002...NCZ018.                     
VA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 700 PM FOR ZONES                                    
VAZ022>024...VAZ032>035...VAZ043>047...VAZ058>059.                              
WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONE VAZ015.                                   
WV...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA                                       
900 AM PST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
RAINFALL TOTALS SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGED FROM            
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WELL INLAND SAW LESS             
THAN A QUARTER INCH WHILE AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF WERE                 
OBSERVED IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND SANTA LUCIA RANGE. WATER               
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LOW PASSED OVER THE SFO            
BAY AREA AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE LOW               
CENTER BRIEFLY LOWERED SNOW LEVELS TO 2500 FEET IN THE SANTA CRUZ               
MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATED ATOP MT HAMILTON.             
RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS ARE DECREASING FROM NW TO SE AND EXPECT MOST            
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE             
OFF TO THE EAST. A VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW            
THIS AFTERNOON MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING            
HOURS. THE 12Z ETA AND 06Z PACRUC BOTH SHOW SCATTERED LIGHT QPF                 
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. SO WILL KEEP THE EVENING                
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. SKIES ARE ALREADY                   
CLEARING IN THE NORTH BAY AND HAVE ISSUED A ZONE UPDATE FOR ZONES 5             
AND 65 TO REDUCE FIRST PERIOD POPS THERE.                                       
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 40N/140W WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING              
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A 120 KT UPPER JET TAKES AIM AT NORTHERN CA.               
WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL GENERATE                 
RAINFALL ON THE NORTHERN CA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS              
FAR SOUTH AS THE BAY AREA. A SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY                  
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND INTO NORTHERN CA MONDAY NIGHT                      
AND TUESDAY...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY IN THE               
NORTH BAY. STS 423  SFO/LVK 721  SJC/MRY 720               DYKEMA               
.SFO...TDA...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS AND MRY BAY FOR               
                   HAZARDOUS SEAS.                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
230 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE            
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS           
BEFORE IT MOVE OUT TO SEA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN          
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA MONDAY         
AND TUESDAY.                                                                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FROM LATEST AVN/ETA LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE QPF TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO       
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUC ALSO SUGGEST THIS        
AS WELL. WILL SPLIT OFF SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW AND WILL GO      
WITH ACCUMULATION OF AROUND AN INCH IN THAT AREA. FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL      
GO WITH LIKELY POPS OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. IN          
NORTHERN AREAS WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR. WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR      
LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR TOMORROW AND TUESDAY WITH LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE    
BUILDING IN WILL STAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM    
THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM       
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP     
AS SNOW IN ALL AREAS. HOWEVER BOTH AVN AND CANADIAN GEM SHOWING CRITICAL        
THICKNESS MOVING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO        
WILL HIGHLIGHT SNOW OR RAIN IN CENTRAL PORTION AND RAIN IN SOUTHERN PORTION     
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FOR LATER         
THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE PRECIP BACK TO SNOW IN CENTRAL AREAS AS BOTH     
NEW AVN AND CANADIAN HINTING OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ON COAST LATER            
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SNOW OR RAIN IN SOUTHERN MOST AREAS FOR LATE THURSDAY       
SINCE EVEN WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR COLDER    
AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTH. KEEPING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR        
FRIDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. MRF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP LOW    
OFFSHORE FOR WEEKEND SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN FORECAST INTO       
SUNDAY.                                                                         
COASTAL WATERS...                                                               
MAINTAINING GALE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MENTION GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS       
SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 25 KT BY LATE ON MONDAY.                              
.CAR...GALE WARNING.                                                            
MIGNONE                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1040 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                     
CIRRUS TO THE WEST HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A HARD TIME OVERCOMING                    
SUBSIDENCE NEAR MID LVL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MO/AR/LA. THIS IS SEEN              
WELL BY WARMING OF CIRRUS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. WILL REMOVE                  
PARTLY CLOUDY IN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT DO            
ARRIVE WILL BE SCATTERED/THIN IN NATURE. LOW LVLS ARE BONE DRY AS               
INDICATED BY ETA/RUC CROSS-SECTIONS WITH SURFACE DEW PTS IN THE UPPER           
20S AND LOWER 30S. MOSTLY SUNNY WEST HALF...SUNNY EAST HALF WILL                
SUFFICE.                                                                        
TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK FINE. UPDATES OUT SOON.                                    
FCSTID = 05/                                                                    
JAN   64  35  67  49 /   0   0   0  20                                          
MEI   65  31  65  42 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.JAN...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
242 PM CST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                      
...WILL INSERT VALLEY INTO WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...                
WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER IN              
THE PAST HOUR. NEW RUC INDICATES 925MB WINDS WILL SUSTAIN AROUND                
40KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY ADIABATIC LAYER UP TO               
925MB AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDS IN ADVISORY                
CRITERIA UNTIL AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. NPW                   
ALREADY ISSUED...AS WELL AS EARLY ZFP FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.           
KELLENBENZ                                                                      
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTH MONDAY             
NIGHT/TUESDAY                                                                   
.OVERVIEW...                                                                    
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON FROM VALLEY              
EAST...AS SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL ND. ONLY SOME CIRRUS                   
SPILLING THROUGH FA...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE BELOW 500MB. MODELS HAVE            
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR MON                    
NIGHT/TUE...AND WILL SIDE WITH THE ETA WHICH HAS BEEN MOST                      
CONSISTENT OF LATE.                                                             
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING FROM VALLEY                         
EAST...BEFORE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO VALLEY AROUND 06Z...THEN INTO                 
EASTERN FA BY 12Z. 500MB FLOW WILL FLATTEN IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE                 
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRY COLUMN ONLY EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT.             
WITH 850MB TEMP RIDGE MOVING INTO FA OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T FALL               
TOO MUCH AND FOR THE MOST PART BE IN THE LOW 30S.                               
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                                          
COOL AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ABOVE SFC MONDAY...AS WEAK SFC HIGH                 
NOSES DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT MOST CLOUDS IN SOUTHERN FA...WHERE               
LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL BE AHEAD OF SOUTHERN                 
500MB SHORTWAVE. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...AND BE            
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40 IN ALL LOCATIONS. CLOUDS INCREASE IN                 
EXTREME SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK 850-500MB Q VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING HERE. WITH WEAK LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION              
PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 850-700MB...EXPECT A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN               
CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BY MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL               
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM NORTH...AND EXPECT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS                 
HERE. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVE INTO              
SOUTHERN IOWA...WITH DEFORMATION SNOW BAND JUST SOUTH OF FA. WILL               
LEAVE A LOW POP FOR LIGHT SNOW IN EXTREME SOUTH...WITH AVN/CANADIAN             
STILL HINTING AT SOME LIGHT QPF HERE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE            
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR TUESDAY...BUT COOLER THAN PAST DAYS.               
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...                                                
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. AVN SLOWER TO PULL            
UPPER LOW OUT TO THE EAST...THUS CONTINUOUS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND              
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING LIKE THE PAST WEEK. THINGS            
BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THINGS              
ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THUS TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL            
HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK. HAVE MY DOUBTS ABOUT PRECIPITATION WITH                
THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WILL TRIM BACK THE MRF REPRESENTATION AND GO              
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TO CHANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE                   
FORECAST AREA. EVERYTHING SHOWS IT WILL BE STARTING OUT AS                      
RAIN...POSSIBLY FZRA IN THE FAR EAST. THEN BIG FRONT COMES THROUGH              
AND TEMPS COLDER ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN COOLER NEXT WEEK.                  
.FGF...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR RED RIVER VALLEY.                 
KELLENBENZ/BRAZZELL                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1035 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2002                                                     
WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER CWA                
TODAY. SURFACE SIGNATURE OF UPPER WAVE NOTED ON 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS            
WITH SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS LOOK GOOD              
IN CURRENT FORECAST WITH RUC AND ETA SHOWING STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE            
GRADIENT BEING MAINTAINED IN EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS            
ARE OVERSPREADING EASTERN CWA AND EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN FOR              
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF            
UPPER SHORT WAVE. AVN AND ETA LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS IN GOOD                  
AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BY 00Z THIS                          
EVENING...WITH WESTERN CWA RISING TO 6 DEGREES CELSIUS. CURRENT                 
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO BE ON TRACK                 
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS. ETA 850-500 HPA LAPSE RATES REACH INTO 7.0-7.5             
C/KM RANGE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN HALF OF CWA...WHICH SHOULD               
ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD MIXING OF WARMER AIR BEING ADVECTED IN AT LOW               
LEVELS. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH                        
CLOUDS...AND SLIGHTLY NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN CWA.               
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd