AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
AT 1530Z LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE MOSAIC SHOWING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION            
CENTERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                   
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN LATEST RUC 700 DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WHERE                 
VALUES ARE GENERALLY GREATER THEN ZERO AS WELL AS BETTER HANDLE ON              
MID LEVEL LIFT.                                                                 
SO FOR THE UPDATE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RUC GIVEN ITS ABOUT THE                
ONLY MODEL WITH SOME GRASP OF THE QPF OUTPUT WHEN COMPARED TO THE               
OTHERS. IT ALSO HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION. WILL GO               
WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE EAST...SOUTHERN THIRD...AND CHEYENNE/KIT              
CARSON COUNTIES OF COLORADO WHERE LIFT IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF ABOVE               
MENTIONED CIRCULATIONS. WILL GO ISOLATED ELSEWHERE WHERE MID LEVEL              
MOISTURE IS A BIT LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE LIFT. BY LATE IN THE DAY              
SUBSIDENCE GENERALLY TAKES HOLD SO PRECIP MAY BE HARD TO FIND.                  
TWEAKED WINDS ALSO TOWARD RUC GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT TEMPS AS IS FOR               
NOW BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ADJUST GIVEN ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER            
PARTS OF THE AREA.                                                              
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE CENTERED IN THE ST. LOUIS AREA              
ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS. CLUSTERS OF RELATIVELY WARM TOPPED                   
CONVECTION HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AND                   
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF ACTIVITY IN                  
MISSOURI YET...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CU OVER SW                    
MISSOURI IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.                          
MID LEVEL VORT CENTER NEAR STL WILL TRACK NORTHEAST AND SHEAR APART             
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN            
MAINLY NORTH OF A MDH/OWB LINE. TO THE SOUTH...CONVECTION SHOULD BE             
MORE SCATTERED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. RUC MODEL TAKES               
THE FRONT TO THE OHIO RIVER AROUND 03Z. AFTER DARK...WEAKENING UPPER            
SUPPORT AND DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING                
TREND.                                                                          
EVEN THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL...THEY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON             
THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. ETA STALLS THE FRONT NEAR                     
HOPKINSVILLE ON SATURDAY...WHILE GFS TAKES IT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ETA            
FORECAST CAPES ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE FRONT SATURDAY                     
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. WEAK 500 MB                    
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. ETA/NGM/AVN MOS ALL               
CRANK OUT CHC POPS IN WESTERN KY ON SATURDAY. WILL REINTRODUCE LOW              
POPS FROM THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY                 
LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING.                                                   
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON                  
SUNDAY. DESPITE BRISK NORTHEAST FLOW...THE MODELS KEEP THE                      
ATMOSPHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE             
60S. LACK OF ANY FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD RESULT IN A RARE DRY DAY              
FOR THIS MONTH.                                                                 
THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK IS WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL                  
RETURN. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL STRENGTHEN A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE                 
CENTRAL U.S. BY MID WEEK. GFS IS THE FASTEST TO DO SO...AND IT WINDS            
UP A SURFACE LOW OVER ARKANSAS EARLY IN THE WEEK THAT WOULD SPREAD              
PRECIP INTO SRN MO/WRN KY ON MONDAY. THE 84-HOUR ETA LENDS NO                   
SUPPORT TO THE GFS. THE FORECAST WILL BE LEFT DRY FOR MONDAY. A                 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL INCREASE DURING             
MID WEEK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIP FORECAST BY THEN.                
FOR TEMPS...GFS/NGM MOS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.             
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1051 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD              
OVER SOUTHERN MAINE. RUC AND ETA MOVES CLOUD COVER INTO CWA LATER               
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TODAY...EXPECT                 
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHERN ZONES TO WARM UP TO MID 70S AND EXPECT                 
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO REACH LOWER 70S WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING                
INFLUENCE. WILL UPDATE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.                                       
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE              
WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF AREA. A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO             
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF             
MAINE ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO MOST OF THE                   
REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY. HIGH             
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.                                                 
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ETA/GFS GENERALLY SIMILAR IN TRENDS NEXT FEW DAYS THO AVN FASTER W/             
BRINGING PRECIP NE ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SAT.  THE GFS               
TIMING IS PREFERRED ATTM AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A BIT BETTER HANDLE              
ON THE PRECIP OCCURRING THRU 6Z ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NYS...               
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE INCLUDE INTRODUCING PRECIP                 
EARLIER ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND RAISING POPS ACCORDINGLY.  BEST            
PRECIP SHIELD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE INTO NRN AREAS ON            
SAT AND LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT WHILE SRN AREAS GRADUALLY TRANSITION              
TO A MORE SHOWERY ENVIRONMENT.  SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA                 
SUN...WITH HIGHEST POPS N AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE                  
REGION.  ETA/GFS ALL SUGGEST KEEPING CHANCE SHOWERS GOING UP N INTO             
SUN NIGHT THEN SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON MON.                      
LOWERED FCST HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA SAT/SUN WITH FEW IF             
ANY AREAS LIKELY TO SEE 60F ON SAT...                                           
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT/SAT AS LOW MOVES               
TOWARD AND THEN THROUGH GULF OF MAINE.                                          
AVIATION...MOIST SERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING            
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING             
CONDITIONS FROM THE SW TO NE LATER TONIGHT AND SAT...  EXPECT VFR               
CONDS ALL TAFS SITES THRU TODAY.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN                  
ACROSS SRN AREAS AND SPREAD SLOWLY NE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  MVFR            
CONDS WILL DEVELOP SRN AREAS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY              
AM.  MVFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP NRN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM W/               
ALL SITES EXPECTING WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS MUCH OF SAT...                         
.CAR...SCA TONIGHT.                                                             
CALDERON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1025 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
THE LATEST APX 88D SHOWS A FEW MID LEVEL RETURNS MOVING INTO                    
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS GREEN BAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA WAS DRY. THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS A WEAKLY                  
ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE LOW               
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING INTO JAMES BAY. THE SURFACE CHART ALSO                   
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN                   
PLAINS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT             
AND INTO THE WESTERN LAKES SATURDAY.                                            
THE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...HAVE                
FORMED IN A THTE RIDGE WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND 9C. LIFT OVER              
THE NORTHERN LAKES CURRENTLY...IS FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND VORT MAX              
MOVING OVER UPPER MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL LIFT IS FROM WEAK RIGHT                  
ENTRANCE REGION FORCING...FROM A 300MB 70KT JET. THE LATEST SHORT               
TERM MODEL DATA SHOWS THE UPPER DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY                  
GENERATING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...TO WEAKEN AND               
SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE                  
LATEST RUC SHOWS THE THTE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...                 
TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE            
EVENING...WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ONTO THE             
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WOULD               
SUPPORT THIS...AS THE CURRENT APX 88D SHOWS RETURNS DIMINISHING OVER            
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.                                                         
OVERALL WILL MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. WILL ALSO MENTION SOME               
FOG OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN HIGH            
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.                                                     
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS EVENING INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL               
FOR CNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG CONCERNS FOR WRN LAKE            
SUPERIOR SHORELINE. OTHERWISE...TEMPS/CLDS WILL BE ONLY CONCERNS                
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                           
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS STILL INDICATE SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH            
WRN GREAT LAKES UNDER INFLUENCE OF NRN STREAM FLOW. WELL-DEFINED                
SHRTWV NOTED MOVG ACROSS WRN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR                
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF LAKE FM ASSOC INSTABILITY            
AND -16 TO -18C 5H COLD POOL. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROF EXTENDED FROM            
WRN ONTARIO ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. WITH SFC DWPNTS IN MID TO UPPER               
50S ALG BNDRY. SOME CONVECTION FORMING ALONG TROF AS EVIDENCED BY               
MODERATE CU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH INVERSION BTWN 750-800 MB             
PER 12Z GRB SNDG SEEMS TO BE KEEPING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN CHECK SO            
FAR.                                                                            
TONIGHT...SFC TROF WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE ACROSS CWA THIS EVNG WITH            
CONTINUED EASTWARD MVMT OF SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH 750-800 MB             
INVERSION WILL BE BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR DVLPMT...ENHANCED                     
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALG SFC TROF AND CONVERGING LAKE BREEZE                   
BOUNDARIES FM SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN...MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH            
THIS CAP AND ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLD TSRA TO DVLP OVER EAST AND CNTRL              
COUNTIES ERY THIS EVNG SO WL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLD TSRA THERE.              
BEHIND SFC TROF WRN COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR              
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DVLP OVER THE WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS SFC             
DWPNTS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (IN 55 TO 60 RANGE) IN WRLY FLOW                  
BEHIND TROF THIS EVNG. PASSAGE OF WK COLD FRONT FM WRN ONTARIO WILL             
GRADUALLY LOWER DWPNTS INTO LOWER 50S LATE TONIGHT AND VEER FLOW                
MORE NNW. MIN TEMPS IN LOW 50S PER GUIDANCE AND GOING FCST STILL                
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
SATURDAY...MID LVL RDG FM NRN PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES                
ALONG WITH ASSOC SFC RDG. NRLY WINDS 10-20 MPH AHD OF SFC-850 MB RDG            
AND 850 MB TEMPS FALLING 1-2C...SHOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS FM 3-5F              
COOLER ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BORDERING COUNTIES. SHADED                 
INLAND TEMPS TOWARD COOLER AVN/ETA MOS GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS AROUND 70            
FOR NRN TIER COUNTIES AND MID 70S FAR SOUTH...WITH COOLEST TEMPS                
AROUND 60 ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.                                        
SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS MID LVL RDG            
BUILDS OVER AREA FROM THE PLAINS...KEEPING AREA DRY INTO ERY NEXT               
WEEK. NRLY FLOW WEAKENS ON SUN AS SFC-850 MB RDG MOVES OVRHD. 850 MB            
TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE TO 11-12C SUN AND 13-14C BY MON AS 5H HGTS                
RISE TO 581-583 DM. CONSIDERING WE SHOULD MIX ABV 800 MB UNDER FULL             
SUN...WOULD EXPECT INLAND HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON             
SUNDAY AND INTO THE LOWER 80S BY MON.                                           
EXTENDED...(TUE-FRI)...MODELS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS SLIDING SLOWLY                  
EASTWARD ON TUE AS SHRTWV APPROACHES FM SCNTRL CANADA ALTHOUGH SFC              
RDGG AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD KEEP CONDS DRY AND WARM AS 850 MB             
TEMPS STILL IN 13-14C RANGE. MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN WAA MID-HI                
CLDS LATE TUE AHD OF APPROACHING TROF ON TUE ALTHOUGH THESE                     
SHOULDN'T IMPACT HIGH TEMPS FM AGAIN REACHING INTO LOW 80S OVR                  
INLAND AREAS. PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AND ASSOC CDFNT PER OPERATIONAL                 
MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE WILL WARRANT KEEPING IN A CHC OF SHRA/TSRA              
FOR WED. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW QUICKER MOVING CDFNT THROUGH                
AREA BY THU AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WILL GO                
WITH DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER FCST THU AND FRI AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER             
TO 8-10C AND CANADIAN SFC HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND CDFNT.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
420 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
...DRY AIR RETURNS FINALLY...                                                   
THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS THE CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH              
AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GET? NEXT IS WILL               
THE SKY REALLY CLEAR SATURDAY THANKS TO THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING              
IN?  IF SO... WILL WE FINALLY SEE HIGHS NEAR 80?                                
RADAR TRENDS SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDIANA                
SHORTWAVE HEADING NORTHEAST.  THE ETA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE             
ON IT.  THE RUC SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING BETWEEN 850 MB AND 700 MB              
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.  THAT WOULD KEEP             
THE CONVECTION FROM GETTING THERE.  HOWEVER THE ETA AND GFS DO NOT              
SHOW THAT DRYING AT MID LEVELS.  THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW NO SIGN             
OF DRY AIR OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT IF ANYTHING                   
MOISTURE IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE.  MSAS SHOWS THE SFC             
BASED LI HAVE GONE NEGATIVE SOUTH OF I-94 AS OF 19Z.  SO...I WILL               
HAVE SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TILL              
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.  BY THEN THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH              
EAST THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END.                                         
ELSEWHERE... THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS                
OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GRR CWA OVERNIGHT BUT THAT DOES NOT            
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SO I BELIEVE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH            
PATCHY FOG (DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH LIMITED SUNSHINE            
TODAY PLUS LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO REDEVELOP)                   
SHOULD WORK NICELY.  DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT FOG             
SHOULD NOT BECOME THICK OVER ANY LARGE AREAS... MOSTLY 1 TO 3 MILE              
VIS TYPE FOG.                                                                   
FINALLY ON SATURDAY THE CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH UNDER            
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THAT WILL ALLOW THE DRY AIR TO FINALLY COME              
IN AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE GRR CWA. THERE              
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON CU THROUGH. IF NOT             
FOR THAT SKIES WOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY 18Z OR SO.                          
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY             
PROBLEM THERE WILL BE THE SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE TOP             
OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY.  THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME COLD AIR AT               
MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE             
AFTERNOON. SO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG LATE                   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING... THEN BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY                 
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CU. SKIES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CLEAR                
SUNDAY NIGHT AS CU DISSIPATES.                                                  
ZONES OUT ALREADY.                                                              
WDM                                                                             
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...                                                 
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE EXTENDED.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS                    
CONTINUE TO SHOW A UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTER OF THE NATION              
INTO MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER.  THE GFS HAS SHOWN            
A MORE NORTHWARD DRIFT OF AN UPPER LOW THAT SHOULD BE OVER THE GULF             
COAST STATES BY MID WEEK.  AT THIS POINT THOU IT WOULD APPEAR TO                
STAY TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT MI WEATHER.  THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER                
SHOULD BE A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE             
CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.  WILL MAINTAIN PCPN CHCS WITH             
THIS FRONT.  ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY LATE IN THE                
WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 80 PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL                    
PASSAGE...THEN IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S BEHIND THE FRONT.  LOWS                 
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.                                              
JK                                                                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1115 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
...WILL LOWER HIGHS SINCE CLOUDS ARE NOT DISSIPATING...                         
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.             
LOOKING AT THE ETA AND RUC 12Z GUIDANCE AND ALSO LOOKING OUT THE                
WINDOW IT IS CLEAR THE CLOUDS ARE NOT GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON. THE             
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS OVER NW LOWER COULD EXPAND SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE             
SHORE DUE TO THE LAKE BREEZE BUT EVEN IF IT DID THERE IS                        
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING BY US TO               
THE SOUTH. BASED ON CLOUDS HOLDING ON... I WILL LOWER HIGHS INLAND              
TO 65 TO 70.                                                                    
LOOKING AT SOUNDING TOOLS... THERE IS INSTABILITY TO TAP AND THERE              
IS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH PLUS THERE IS A VORT LOBE                 
ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT THE RUC TAKES ACROSS LOWER            
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  IF THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE COULD GET TO               
70F BETWEEN GRR AND LAN... THERE WOULD BE OVER 2000 J/KG.  EVEN WITH            
68 WE COULD GET 800 J/KG FROM THE MOST UNSTABLE LAYER.    EVEN                  
SO...I BELIEVE THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM             
WILL STAY THERE (TO OUR SOUTH). THAT LEAVES LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE             
FOR OUR LIFT MECHANISM.  SO... IT COULD HAPPEN...THUS I WILL LEAVE              
THE LOW CHC POP IN.                                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW FAIRLY ZONAL SPLIT FLOW ACRS              
NAMERICA. NRN BRANCH CENTERED ACRS SRN CAN...WITH FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV            
MOVG E ACRS NW ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED SFC TROF HAS MOVD INTO WRN LK                
SUP...BUT WSHFT ACRS BNDRY IS RATHER WEAK. SOME ISOLD -SHRA HAVE                
DVLPD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF OVR WRN CWA...BUT SHARP MID LVL INVRN             
BTWN H75-8 AS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB SDNG ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY                   
DEPARTING HUDSON BAY HI AND LACK OF ANY SFC HTG SO FAR HAVE LIMITED             
SHRA COVG/INTENSITY DESPITE SFC DWPTS WELL INTO THE 50S NR 60 OVR               
THE UPR GRT LKS. SRN BRANCH OF FLOW OVR THE SRN TIER CONUS...AND THE            
ONLY IMPACT OF THIS FLOW ON CWA IS TO ROB ANY DEEP MSTR FM ADVCTG N             
TO SUPPLY THE NRN BRANCH WITH MORE WATER.                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY REVOLVE ARND SHRA/TSRA CHCS.                            
09Z RUC/06Z ETA SHOW ONTARIO SHRTWV PUSHING DUE E TDAY...WITH BEST              
HGT FALLS/DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING N OF CWA.                 
HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF SUPPORTING 70 KT H3               
JET MAX ON SRN FLANK OF SHRTWV WITH WEAK HGT FALLS AND SOME COOLING             
IN THE MID TROP ASSOCIATED WITH H7-5 THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM. WEAK                
SFC TROFFING IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV PROGGED TO MOVE INTO CNTRL ZNS             
DURG THE AFTN BEFORE WASHING OUT UNDER H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC LATER IN              
THE DAY IN WAKE OF SHRTWV AXIS PASSAGE. LGT WND FIELDS AND SFC HTG              
INLAND WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID TROP/JUST PTCHY CLDS WL ALLOW FOR LK             
BREEZES TO DVLP ALG ALL THE SHORELINES. MAX TEMPS YDAY/12Z GRB SDNG             
THIS MRNG SUG MAX TEMPS INLAND AWAY FM LK COOLING WL BE IN THE UPR              
70S. 00Z RUN OF THE WRF MODEL SHOWS ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ALG WEAK CNVGC              
LINE ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS THIS AFTN AND MIGRATING SLOWLY E AND                    
INTENSIFYING A BIT IN COVG/INTENSITY AS ACTIVITY HITS LK BREEZE                 
CNVGC OVR ESPECIALLY THE SE ZNS BY LATE AFTN...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE            
RUC/ETA FCST QPF/MSTR CNVGC IN THE SAME AREAS. WORST CASE MODIFIED              
12Z GRB SDNG FOR MAX TEMP OF 80/DWPT 60 AND SOME MID LVL COOLING/               
EROSION OF INVRN ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWV AXIS INDICATE                
CAPE ARND 900 J/KG AT 21Z FOR SE CWA. ALTHOUGH WBZ HGT ARND 9K                  
FT IDEAL FOR HAIL...WEAK LLVL WND FIELDS/SHEAR/GENERALLY ACYC H85               
FLOW AND STRENGTH OF INVRN THIS MRNG SUG THREAT OF ORGANIZED                    
TSRA/SVR TSRA MINIMAL. MORE EMPHATIC DRYING/LACK OF LLVL MSTR CNVGC             
AND EARLY ARRIVAL OF MORE NEGATIVE MID LVL DYNAMICS SUG THREAT OF               
SHRA OVR THE WRN ZNS WL BE GONE ONCE SFC TROF PASSES EARLY IN THE               
AFTN. IN GENERAL...GOING FCST APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON XPCTD              
SCENARIO AND NEEDS LTL MODIFICATION.                                            
KC                                                                              
AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                         
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SE HLF OF UPR MI SHOULD              
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING.                              
OTHERWISE...QVECTOR DIV / SUBSIDENCE AND DRY ADVECTION TAKE OVER IN             
THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV AS SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH                    
DEWPOINTS FCST TO DROP TO AROUND 50 F...MIN TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE                 
LOOKED REASONABLE AS IN THE GOING FCST.                                         
SATURDAY...MID LVL SHRTWV RDG PROGRESSES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES AND               
SFC RDG BUILDS INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY NRLY WINDS. LAKE BREEZE             
COMPONENT WILL ALSO REINFORCE GRADIENT FLOW AND PUSH COOL LK                    
SUPERIOR AIR WELL INLAND OVER THE NORTH. SO...HAVE SHADED TEMPS AOB             
GUIDANCE WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE SHORE.                     
SUN INTO MON...ETA AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH                
BUILDING MID LVL RDG FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. ALTHOUGH             
THE MDLS SUGGEST PCPN WITH SHRTWVS ALONG WITH PERIPHERY OF THE RDG              
MAY EDGE AS CLOSE AS NE MN BY MON...EXPECT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN                   
MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF UPR MI GIVEN POSITION OF SFC FRONT AND                 
TRACK OF WEAK SHRTWVS WELL TO THE NORTH.                                        
JLB                                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
930 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
NOT PLANNING ON ANY UPDATES THIS MORNING AS CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKING             
ABOUT THE WAY I WANT IT TO. SURFACE TROF SET UP OVER WESTERN INTO               
CENTRAL MONTANA AT PRESENT WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST OVER             
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HIGH STILL POKING INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS            
OF THE CWA FROM ITS CENTER IN NORTH DAKOTA. MORNING GLASGOW SOUNDING            
NOT EXACTLY A HARBINGER OF DOOM...SO SEE APPARENT NEED TO GET TOO               
BENT OUT OF SHAPE AT THE MOMENT. MORNING ETA AND RUC INDICATING                 
CURRENT FORECAST WELL IN LINE...WITH LIONS SHARE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE            
WEATHER OCCURRING WEST ACROSS GREAT FALLS AREA...AND NORTH INTO                 
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.  WILL DO A 19Z RUN TODAY TO SEE HOW                   
ATMOSPHERE IS DOING AT THAT TIME...AND TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INPUT              
INTO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. VALONE                                                 
SURFACE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN GOING            
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING IN ALL AREAS AND IN THE EAST             
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN TODAY.               
SW FLOW ALOFT FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING                  
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN               
AFTERNOON TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING FORECASTS.  FORRESTER                     
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                   
UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF AK TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN            
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  ENERGY WHICH ROTATES OUT OF THE LOW IN THE              
VICINITY OF THE BC COAST SUNDAY EVENING TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER               
UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS INTO THE NE                  
PACIFIC.  ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH             
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL CHANCES OF CONVECTION            
AFTER MONDAY.                                                                   
GFS LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING A CASE OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SUNDAY NIGHT            
AS IT GENERATES NEARLY AN INCH OF QPF IN NORTHEAST MT.  INTERESTING             
THOU THAT IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS IN DOING SUCH...            
SO CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE              
GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN MT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ONLY                       
SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND COULD CONTINUE TO                
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN                    
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE WILL BE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY.               
WOULD FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE EXTENDING POPS FURTHER WEST DURING THE              
DAY MONDAY...AND THAT WAS THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THAT WAS MADE IN THE            
GRIDS.  THIS LOOKS TO FIT WELL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.                        
A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY ZONAL             
FLOW WHICH WILL DRY US OUT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE                   
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES TO             
THE PACIFIC COAST HELPING TO INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.  ECMWF                
MORE PROGRESSIVE AT BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH INLAND WITH A SFC                 
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MT THURSDAY. WILL LEAN WITH THE GFS            
AS THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A SLOWER PROGRESSION. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT             
ISOLATED LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY                         
THURSDAY...BUT NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OR CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A              
MENTION AT THIS TIME.                                                           
THE NEW 00Z GFS SHOWS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE WEEK               
WITH A CUT-OFF DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A            
FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BRINGING A SFC            
FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO               
THE UNCERTAINTY FEEL BETTER AT THIS JUNCTURE MAINTAINING THE ONGOING            
DRY FORECAST. CB                                                                
KGGW BTT /084 057/079 055/081 7904303                                           
     TEBB 056/080 052/081 052/083 052/084 056/ 92330000000                      
KGDV BTT /083 057/079 054/082 7903303                                           
     TEBB 057/079 054/081 052/083 054/084 054/ 92333000000                      
.GGW...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
855 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID            
ATLANTIC STATES ARE STRATIFYING AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE               
TRI-STATE AREA. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THESE STORMS DON'T EVEN                 
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN OR LIGHTNING...SO NO REAL THREAT OF SEVERE                   
WEATHER TO SPEAK OF AT THE MOMENT. IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN A TRACE AND            
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE FIRST HOUR AND A HALF              
OR SO OF PRECIP ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. ONE GOOD REASON FOR THIS CAN             
BE FOUND ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATION PLOT. AS OF 8PM...THE                       
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WAS 58 OVER 58                   
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...THE SAME SPLIT AT WILMINGTON DELAWARE AT 8 PM              
WAS 78 OVER 74 DEGREES. THE REGIONAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE                
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...FROM NEAR PHILADELPHIA              
TO JUST NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH...IF ANY...               
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...SO DON'T SEE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER               
ACROSS OUR CWA. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...               
THESE MAY STILL HAPPEN AS A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY SURVIVE...            
OR DISSIPATE SLOWLY ENOUGH TO AFFECT FROM THE CITY SOUTHWEST.                   
FORECAST CHANGES AND ADJUSTMENTS...WILL TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF                 
THUNDER EAST OF THE CITY...AND JUST LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.            
I WILL ALSO ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR EARLY SATURDAY            
AS I EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND MIST EARLY.                            
MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN MORE OUT OF THE EAST...ALMOST EAST-                    
NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS             
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THEN SHIFT THE WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AROUND             
DAYBREAK.                                                                       
SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECAST...SO WILL                  
ADJUST THEM UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL.                                            
ALL DATA SETS FROM AMBROSE LIGHT ARE UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. WIND             
DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE IS ALSO UNAVAILABLE FROM BUOY 44025.                    
AVIATION...IFR OR LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT            
STAYS SOUTH. CANT US PROB WITHIN FIRST 8 HRS OF TAFS SO FORCED TO GO            
WITH TEMPO ON SHRA OR TSRA THIS EVENING. HAVE RECENTLY PULLED THE               
THREAT OF TSRA FROM BDR AND ISP AS MARINE ENVIROMENT IS KILLING                 
ACTIVITY AS IT NEARS THE COAST. KEPT PCPN MENTION GOING LATER THAN              
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS FEELING THREAT SHOULD END AFTER 14Z OR 15Z.                
HYDROLOGY...EXPECT AVERAGE OVERNIGHT QPF OF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE             
THENTH OF AN INCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...                   
ALTHOUGH LONG ISLAND DOES HAVE A CHANCE AT ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND              
ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA (NYC NORTH AND                  
WEST)...EXPECT AN AVERAGE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH                
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH POSSIBLE.                   
GROUND REMAINS VERY MUCH SATURATED...SO VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING THAT               
FALLS WILL BE RUNOFF. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS                 
DECREASED WITH THE CONTINUED DISSIPATION OF STRONG SHOWERS AND                  
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTH...THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO CAUSE A RUCKUS IS             
SO LOW THAT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONTINUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT                 
PERIOD. AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.                      
.CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH OVERNIGHT NJZ002>005-011-141100.                       
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH OVERNIGHT NYZ067>071-141100.                           
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
****************** PREVIOUS AFD ISSUED AT 245 PM ******************             
NEED TO GET THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THEN WILL GO INTO A               
DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...BEGINNING WITH                    
FATHER'S DAY.                                                                   
SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN NY STATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ THEN EXTENDING OFFSHORE SOUTH OF               
LONG ISLAND.                                                                    
GFS BEGINS TO FORM A LOW ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THIS LOW                    
EVENTUALLY BECOME PRIMARY ON SATURDAY OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST.                    
WHERE AS ETA KEEPS LOW FROM GREAT LAKES AS PRIMARY. BELIEVE BEST                
AVENUE TO TAKE IS A COMPRISE BETWEEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED/QUICKER                 
GFS AND LESS AMPLIFIED/SLOWER ETA...WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE GFS.                 
12Z RUN OF GFS HANDLING POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETTER THAN             
PREVIOUS RUNS. DOES NOT BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL             
VERY LATE TONIGHT. ETA ALSO BRING BOUNDARY THROUGH VERY LATE                    
TONIGHT. WOULD NOT EXCEPT BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH SINCE WE ARE SPRING            
LIKE PATTERN...IN WHICH WARM FRONT HAVE A VERY HARD TIME MOVING                 
NORTH. WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S AT REPORTING             
SITES.                                                                          
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE TO FOCUS RAIN ACROSS AREA...ESPECIALLY                
WHERE WE DO NOT NEED INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE STREAMS AND RIVERS.             
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A DRY SPELL AS HIGH PRESSURE              
SETTLES OVER REGION. ACTUALLY SOME SEASONABLE - SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.            
WENT ALONG WITH HPC 3 TO 7 DAYS EXTENDED PROGS. ADDED CHANCE OF                 
SHOWERS TO THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING FOR SHOWERS AS COLD FRONT PROGGED              
TO MOVE THROUGH.                                                                
WILL HAVE REST OF TODAY...TO COVER DRIZZLE OCCURRING AND SCATTERED              
SHOWERS.                                                                        
.MARINE...FOLLOWING A WIND SHIFT TO A WEST DIRECTION...WIND SPEEDS              
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES             
FROM THE SW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FORECAST...SEAS WILL              
RISE TO AROUND 5 FT DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...UNTIL               
THE COLD FRONT SWINGS SE ACROSS THE WATERS. THE HEADLINE...SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WILL BE                    
CONTINUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL CONTINUE IN DRIZZLE AND FOG                 
UNTIL AROUND 09Z. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED CONVECTION...WILL DEVELOP             
PRODUCING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS BY EVENING. THE HIGHEST SYNOPTIC              
SCALE LIFT WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WILL CAUSE                      
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...MAINLY FROM 02Z TO 06Z.                   
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT                     
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MVFR/VFR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.                                
&&                                                                              
.HYDRO...MORE RAIN OVER SATURATED GROUND. RUNOFF SHOULD LEAD TO                 
PROBLEMS. HEADWATERS GUIDANCE VERY LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ.                  
THUS...FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AND BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE                    
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPANDED TO COVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY                   
OF NY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
********************************************************************            
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
947 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR YYZ ON THE LATEST ANALYSIS WITH WARM FRONT             
TRAILING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED                
OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR STL.  LOW PRESSURE AND               
FRONTAL SURFACES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY.  BOTH               
THE RUC AND THE 00Z ETA SHOW THE 700MB AND 850MB THETA-E RIDGES                 
LOCATED FROM JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER DUE SOUTH DURING THE LATE                   
AFTERNOON.  GOOD LIFT ON THE 700MB AND 850MB PLAN VIEWS ALSO                    
FORECAST...AND THERE SHOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER-LEVEL             
SUPPORT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER WAVE FROM SOUTHERN                
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.  FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...MODEL DATA AND                
CURRENT RADAR INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE                
AFTERNOON AND PLAN TO FORECAST THIS ACCORDINGLY ESPECIALLY FOR THE              
BUF AND IAG AREAS.  RUC IN PARTICULAR REALLY INCREASES THE MID-LEVEL            
SUBSIDENCE IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.  LIKELY TO            
CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT.                     
SPC RAISED NORTH THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...AND LOOKING AT THE                 
DYNAMICS ALONE...GIVEN ENOUGH SUNSHINE WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...                
PRESENCE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND THE LOW...SEVERE CANNOT BE                   
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE RELATIVELY               
LOW...LIS OF 0 TO -2C DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MODEL SOUNDINGS               
FROM THE ETA AND RUC DO NOT SHOW MUCH CAPE...AND RH FIELDS IN THE               
BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAIRLY SATURATED DURING THE DAY AND ANY CLEARING             
SHOULD BE FLEETING.  COORDINATED WITH CTP...AND AGREE THAT THE                  
BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS LIES FARTHER SOUTH INTO PA.  WILL               
KEEP AN EYE ON IT THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IF CLEARING IS QUICKER THAN               
ANTICIPATED.                                                                    
MOST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHORT-TERM LAMP...SHOW TEMPERATURE                
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  ETA MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO WARM.  PLAN TO HAVE              
UPDATE OUT BY 1015 AM.                                                          
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DJF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
850 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
CONVECTION IS DYING ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STILL               
LATEST RUC DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION            
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT LOBE               
THOUGH SO AM A BIT SKEPTICAL THIS WILL MATERIALIZE. ACTIVITY TO THE             
SOUTHWEST HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE AS WELL AS NOTED BY WARMING               
CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF               
RADAR ECHOES. WILL UPDATE TO DECREASE OR REMOVE POPS ALL AREAS LATER            
THIS EVENING.                                                                   
MARINE: DIAMOND BUOY REPORTED 19G23KT AT 22Z. GRADIENT A LITTLE                 
TIGHTER N OF OCRACOKE. ALBEIT A MARGINAL SCA SITUATION N OF CAPE                
LOOKOUT WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT FCST.                                           
.MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY N OF CAPE LOOKOUT.                                  
$$                                                                              
MLF/WS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
235 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
QUIET DAY TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LACK OF SUNSHINE HAS                 
INHIBITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANALYSIS SHOWS CLOSED 500MB LOW               
OVER ILLINOIS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA                 
THEN SOUTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. CONVECTION NOW ONLY            
FIRING UP WITH THIS FEATURE. BOTH RUC AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE THIS                 
FEATURE ANALYZED WELL AND TRACK 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER MASON DIXON                
LINE TONIGHT. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH AND EAST AND                 
INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS SOUTH.                                           
SFC LOW TRIES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR REGION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
TOMORROW BUT MODELS FORCE IT SOUTHWARD UNDER STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW              
OVER GREAT LAKES. WENT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER             
SOUTH AGAIN.                                                                    
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH BUILD IN BY SUNDAY MORNING DRYING               
THINGS OUT OVER CWA. SFC HIGH PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BE OVER            
LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY. DRY FLOW CONTINUES OVER REGION THROUGH                  
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...12Z GFS BRINGS WAVE INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY              
AND THREAT OF SHOWERS INTO WESTERN PA. FOR NOW LEAVE WEDNESDAY DRY.             
CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7. 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS             
AND GFS ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z AND 12Z SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONSISTENCY              
SO DRY PERIOD FOR SUN-TUE STILL LOOKS BELIEVABLE.                               
.CTP...NONE                                                                     
DIRIENZO                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
925 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
DISC:  00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESS OFF THE SE COAST.                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WELL TO OUR NORTH THIS EVENING.                          
SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. 88D SHOWS MAIN AREA OF             
SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE             
MIDLANDS AND UPSTATE. MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS HARD TO PICK OUT IN               
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RUC/MESO ETA INDICATE A WEAK S/W TO PASS                  
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ON THE             
DECREASE WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO MENTION A SLIGHT POP FOR THE                   
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH TDS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE                
AREA THIS EVENING...BELIEVE FORECAST MINS ON TRACK.                             
FCSTID =   77                                                                   
CAE   71  87  71  87 /  20  50  40  50                                          
AGS   69  88  69  88 /  20  50  40  50                                          
SSC   71  87  71  87 /  30  50  40  50                                          
OGB   71  88  71  88 /  30  50  40  50                                          
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
LCV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1104 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
SATELLITE WV SHOWING S/W CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KY & TN DOWN INTO AL            
MOVING EAST. ALONG THE FEATURES SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SH AND ISO TS               
HAS FIRED UP AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND ATMOS DESTABILIZES.               
MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDING YIELDS CAPES EAST OF THE MTNS IN THE                  
2500-3000 J/KG RANGE WITH AROUND 1K OVER THE MTNS. RUC40 DID A                  
DECENT JOB FOR YESTERDAY CONVECTION AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON PAINTS IN            
GOOD COVERAGE. WILL AGAIN EXPECT SH/TS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE S/W AND             
SLIDE E/NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH WARM RIDGING ALOFT AND PW EXCEEDING             
1.5" WOULD EXPECT PRIMARY THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND WET                       
MICROBURST...WILL FRESHEN GOING SPS.                                            
WILL LOWER TEMPS A COUPLE OF CLICKS DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND ON                
COMING PRECIP...TEMPS CLOSER TO THE FLP. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS              
AS COVERAGE WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTERDAY...WITH MORE SPREADING NW INTO            
THE MTNS. AND WILL ALSO MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS            
AS WELL.                                                                        
FCSTID =   16                                                                   
GSP   83  69  87  68 /  60  40  50  50                                          
AND   83  69  88  69 /  60  40  50  50                                          
CLT   84  70  88  68 /  60  40  50  50                                          
HKY   80  68  85  66 /  60  40  50  50                                          
AVL   79  64  81  63 /  60  40  50  50                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
NED                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
905 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24                 
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE             
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.                                            
*********************************************************************           
EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                     
905 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
ISOLATED SHOWERS ABOUT TO END ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS SUNSET HAS                
OCCURRED. CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AS                      
INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST OUT             
OF MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA. MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO            
EAST TENNESSEE BY MORNING. THE BEST INSTABILITY LIES ACROSS THE                 
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AND HAS INCREASED ACROSS NORTH             
ALABAMA THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE                
NORTHEAST MAINLY LATE AND LOWER CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT SOUTHERN               
AREAS CLOSER TO ALABAMA ACTIVITY.                                               
.MRX...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
TD                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM CONCERNS...MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH OVER NE AL           
AND NRN GA CONTS TO INCREASE AND TRACK NE TOWARD SE TN AND SW NC...             
SO CARRIED HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THOSE AREAS FOR EARLY TONIGHT.  BEST             
INSTABILITY IS ACTUALLY TO OUR NORTH TODAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY               
WHERE BEST NOTED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTS TO LIFT NE.  DID NOT               
RULE OUT SOME EVENING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN KY/MIDDLE TN THAT COULD            
AFFECT OUR NE PLATEAU AS WELL AS LEE/WISE COUNTIES OF VIRGINIA.                 
ELSEWHERE...FELT SAFE TO UNDERCUT MOS POPS AND STAY ONLY 30-40% POPS.           
FOR SAT...EXPECT PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION BY THE AFTERNOON             
...BUT AGAIN MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE BY SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO                
LIMITED LIKELY POPS TO SOUTHERN AND NW PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.  THE             
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO US TO BE MAINLY A DEWPOINT                     
DISCONTINUITY...AND MAY NOT HELP TO INITIATE AS MUCH CONVECTION                 
INTO LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY AS GFS MODEL INDICATES.  THUS...            
TRIED TO STAY IN THE CHANCE POP RANGE SAT NIGHT...AND THEN TAPERED              
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY.  BEST CHANCES SAT               
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WERE PARTIALLY TO MESH BETTER WITH JKL AND GSP                 
GRIDS.                                                                          
EXTENDED...NE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE PICTURE AND HEIGHTS RISE...SO             
WE KEPT EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY FOR NOW.  ECMWF/UKMET/MRF(GFS) DEPICT AT            
LEAST A WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY REGION             
BY LATE TUE/WED...SO POPS WERE ADDED FOR MAINLY THU/FRI.                        
OTHERWISE...PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW:                                      
FCSTID =   10                                                                   
CHA   69  84  68  86 /  50  60  50  20                                          
TYS   68  83  66  84 /  40  50  50  20                                          
TRI   65  80  63  82 /  30  50  50  20                                          
OQT   67  83  66  84 /  40  50  50  20                                          
TG                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)                                            
1010 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
AFTER SEEING MODELS/MOS OVER PLAY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION YESTERDAY            
AND OVERNIGHT...HAVE BECOME MORE SKEPTICAL.  MODIFIED BNA AND RNK               
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES REACHING AROUND 1500 J/KG IF TEMPS WARM                
INTO THE LOWER 80S.                                                             
APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THIS MORNING (PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE           
PICS) ARE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NE THIS               
MORNING...AND ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER NM HEADED FOR W TX.  13Z                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS DID NOT REVEAL ANY BOUNDARY THAT WOULD HELP TO                 
INITIATE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS...THERE ARE SOME                  
INDICATIONS THAT LIKELY POPS ARE TOO HIGH ACROSS THE BOARD.  LATEST             
RADAR DATA DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING OVER NRN AL              
AND GA...MOVING NE INTO THE SE CORNER OF TN AND SW TIP OF NC.  RUC              
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE AFTERNOON...SUCH              
THAT LIKELY POPS MIGHT STILL BE WARRANTED FOR SE TN AND SW NC.                  
OTHERWISE...MIGHT SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GET GOING OR MOVE           
INTO THE NE PLATEAU COUNTIES.                                                   
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY AND MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS.                   
TG                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION                                               
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
TODAY AND TONIGHT...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A                
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...            
WITH RADARS REVEALING SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLATEAU.             
WILL PLAN TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS...ESPECIALLY             
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN MODERATE INSTABILITY                
DEVELOPS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...               
WITH TEMPS REMAINING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S.                               
LATER PERIODS...MODELS PROJECT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SINK THROUGH THE           
FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A                
BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AS DRIER AIR DISPLACES             
THE MOIST AIR AT NEARLY ALL LEVELS. THEREFORE...EXPECT A DECREASING             
TREND IN PRECIP COVERAGE BY THE FOURTH PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME                   
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON HOW FAST THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL               
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. ETA DEPICTS LEFT OVER PRECIP IN THE AREA                 
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY WHILE GFS DEPICTS AREA OF PRECIP WILL BE WELL SOUTH           
OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR            
FOURTH PERIOD POPS. GENERALLY WENT WITH BLEND FOR TEMPS ALSO.                   
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW:                                                     
CHA   85  68  85  67 /  60  50  50  30                                          
TYS   84  66  83  66 /  60  50  50  20                                          
TRI   81  63  80  63 /  60  50  50  30                                          
OQT   84  66  83  66 /  60  50  50  20                                          
DMG/LCM                                                                         
*********************************************************************           
EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATE                                              
920 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003                                                      
AREA RADARS ARE FAIRLY QUITE AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER             
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED. RUC MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORT-WAVE               
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY                   
FRIDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME                
ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS OVERNIGHT...                 
BUT LOWER THEM TO 40-50 PERCENT.                                                
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD. MAY ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL                
GIVEN BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER.                                                    
DH                                                                              
*********************************************************************           
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                      
...GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE                   
COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS...                                           
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...WV IMAGERY/RUC                    
ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG S/WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO FAR WRN TX W/ STRONG            
CONVECTION FIRING ALL OVER CEN TX IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPR DIFFLUENCE             
AHEAD OF THE VORT. CONVECTION IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING               
ACROSS THE BORDER ALONG THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH                
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT ACTIVITY AND/OR OUTFLOWS FROM IT TO               
MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE S/WV MVS THROUGH THE REGION.            
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NRN ZONES AS A GOOD PORTION OF             
THE S/WV TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING GOOD DYNAMICAL LIFT.                
MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES AND THE CAP INCREASES AS YOU MOVE SOUTH DUE            
TO A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS BEEN OVR THE GOMEX FOR SEVERAL                 
DAYS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY TSTM COMPLEX             
AND WILL PROVIDE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS STH TX...MAKING THIS A             
VERY DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST. WILL KEEP CHC/SCT POPS ALL BUT THE              
CRP ZONES (KEEPING 20S THERE...THE EVENING CREW MAY NEED TO BUMP                
THESE UP IN AN UPDATE). SPC HAS NRN AREAS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLT RISK              
OF SVR TSTMS...AND MAY NEED TO PLAY UP THE POSSIBILITY A LITTLE MORE            
IN AN UPDATED HWO THIS EVENING.                                                 
SAT'S FORECAST IS COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS LAY                
COME MORNING. SHOULD CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS COMPLETELY ROLE THROUGH THE            
REGION TONIGHT...IT WILL LIKELY END CHCS FOR MONDAY AS THE                      
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. WILL KEEP A BLANKET 30 POP ALL ZONES FOR NOW               
COUNTING ON LINGERING ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. THE                       
AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WILL PRODUCE A CUT OFF LOW NEAR ERN OK ON SAT.              
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND THE CAP WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE             
WAKE OF THE INITIAL S/WV AS A POOL OF MOISTURE SINKS SOUTH. TIMING              
IS IN DOUBT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER            
ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER S/WV ROTATES                 
AROUND THE LOW TO THE NE. WILL KEEP CHC POPS GOING SAT NIGHT.                   
LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH FRI)...AS DISCUSSED YESTERDAY...CONCERN WILL             
BE FOR REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LINGERING ON SUNDAY AND                 
POSSIBLY RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE WITH             
CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD AND LESSEN THEM                
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY (I.E. WILL PLAY THE NOCTURNAL                    
CONVECTION SCENARIO).  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SAME TREND AS PREVIOUS            
FORECASTS IN LESSENING CONVECTION TUESDAY...WITH NO POPS                        
AFTERWARDS.  AGAIN...ALL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER               
SYSTEM WHICH I BELIEVE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST NOT TO IMPACT OUR                
AREA.  JUST FIND IT HARD TO BUY THE AVN/GFS KEEPING POPS IN OUR AREA            
WEDNESDAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OBTAINING A WESTERLY COMPONENT              
HERE.  WITH EXPECTED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WILL GO WITH COOLER MINS            
(WHICH IF WE MISS OUT ON THE RAINFALL OR STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                
WILL BE WARMER THAN FORECAST) AND NOT LET MAXES UP TOO HIGH WITH                
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER LINGERING. WILL BEGIN A GENERAL WARM UP TO                 
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AS UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE            
AREA.                                                                           
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP BT 079/093 076/089 074 23354                                                
VCT BT 077/093 073/088 073 53454                                                
LRD BT 079/101 077/095 076 43454                                                
.CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM                    
       BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR                                               
    ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON                           
88/MJG...SHORT-TERM                                                             
86/GW...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1015 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003                                                     
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A BROAD               
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR THE NRN GOMEX WITH WEAK LOW                 
PRESSURE OVR WEST TEXAS. W/ 35 KNOTS AT 900 FT ON THE 12Z CRP                   
SOUNDING...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY             
DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS.                
LOOKING IN THE MID/UPR LVLS...WV IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG            
S/WV APPROACHING WRN TEXAS W/ A 70KT JET STREAK SPREADING ACROSS                
WRN/CEN TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG                 
CONVECTION IN THE DRT VCNTY.                                                    
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST IN THE FIRST                
PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR FEATURES WILL NOT AFFECT THE REGION            
UNTIL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WHEN WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH                 
CLOSELY FOR AN MCS MVG TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NW AS STRONG                   
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS CEN TX. WILL BUMP THE WINDS UP              
IN THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREAS TO 20-25 MPH BASED            
OF LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE WHICH WILL REQUIRE WINDY WORDING. BREEZY                 
SHOULD SUFFICE ELSEWHERE. MARGINAL HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS OK IN THE WRN            
ZONES. STILL THINK THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL HAVE TROUBLE VERIFYING IN             
THE ERN ZONES IN STRONG SRLY FLOW...BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS.                       
MARINE...SCA ALL ZONES LOOKS FINE.                                              
.CRP...SCA BAYS AND WATERWAYS AND OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE FROM                    
       BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR                                               
    ...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON            
88/MJG...SHORT-TERM                                                             
86/GW...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
253 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM            
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.                                           
EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL              
PLAINS...A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE           
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MOORING AS THE RUC ADVERTISED. THIS IS IN              
RESPONSE TO THE REMAINING BOUNDARIES COLLIDING ACROSS THE AREA                  
WORKING WITH THE COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL                
SHORT WAVES THAT CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.               
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST            
COLORADO IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. WILL               
KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD THIS MORNING AND               
HOPE THE STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DISSIPATE.                
WITH THE WEAK UPPER FLOW AND WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE                
FLOW...THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME LATCHING ONTO AND                      
DEVELOPING ANY PARTICULAR FEATURE.  WIDESPREAD LOW POPS SEEM TO BE              
THE MODEL COMPROMISE.  THE AVN IS TOO COOL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AND               
TOO WARM WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.  WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ETA WARMER             
HIGHS AND COOLER LOWS.  WILL ALSO BUMP POPS UP A LITTLE FOR THIS                
AFTERNOON...TOWARDS THE HIGHER ETA POPS.                                        
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...                   
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT              
THE SURFACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE WEAK             
TROUGH THAT IS DUE TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.  ALOFT...THE                  
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH                  
MONDAY BEFORE FLATTENING SLIGHTLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES                  
THROUGH ON TUESDAY.  THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE ROCKIES                    
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST                    
COAST.                                                                          
THE EXTENDED PROGS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DIFFERENCES               
SHOWING UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES                   
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEGINS TO LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY              
THE END OF THE WEEK.  WILL PUT IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY             
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE TROUGHS AT THE SURFACE             
AND ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  WILL KEEP ALL ELSE IN THE                   
EXTENDED DRY.                                                                   
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
LOCKHART                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
150 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
AT MIDNIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS POSITIONED NEAR KEVV WITH AN               
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST                    
MISSOURI. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST              
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN            
KENTUCKY. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE                  
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA.                                               
THE NEAR TERM CONCERN IS ANY NEED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY               
ACROSS MY EASTERN AND SOUTHESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE TROUGH EXITS               
THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MESO-ETA AND RUC                       
SOLUTIONS...I/M LEANING TOWARD A CONTINUED ANSWER OF YES AS THE                 
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A 30 POP FOR THAT AREA. SEEING RECENT                      
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN WESTERN TENNESSEE...THAT POP MAY NEED                  
INCREASED A LITTLE. WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION THROUGH ISSUANCE TIME.           
FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE                   
SURFACE HIGH GETS CLOSER TO THE THE REGION. GIVEN OUR MOIST GROUND              
CONDITIONS...REDUCED CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT WINDS...WIDESPREAD                 
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP. FOR NOW...WILL PLACE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN               
THE GRIDS AND MENTION THE CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.             
BOTH THE GFS AND NGM SUGGEST PRECIP WILL FORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE            
AREA ON SUNDAY. AFTER SEARCHING FOR A LITTLE BIT TO SEE FROM WHAT               
FEATURE THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING FORMED...IT APPEARS THAT                    
GUIDANCE IS COUNTING ON THE 850 TROUGH TO DO THIS...AS THAT FEATURE             
WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION AND STILL BE RELATIVELY SATURATED. THE            
FORECAST NGM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM 850 MB             
MIGHT BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVEN IF CONVECTION DID DEVELOP IT WOULD                 
QUICKLY ENCOUNTER A CAP AT THE 650 MB LEVEL WITH PERHAPS ONLY ENOUGH            
CAPE FOR SOME TOWERING CU. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY SUNDAY FORECAST             
BUT UP THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE.                                                
THE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WILL MAKE LITTLE IF ANY              
CHANGES. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE DAY OF THE ONSET OF OUR NEXT              
POSSIBLE PROLONGED PERIOD DAY TO DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOISTURE               
FLUX INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND PERSISTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER            
LOW SPINNING PERIODIC OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ARE TO THANK            
FOR THIS.                                                                       
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DFS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
307 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
TEMPS ONLY REAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXITING SHORTWAVE IN ERN ONTARIO...WITH               
BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS WELL INTO CANADA. WK               
SFC TROF WHICH HELPED TO SPARK SOME MINOR CONVECTION LAST EVENING IN            
THE SRN U P HAS PUSHED SE OF THE CWA. SHRA/CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH               
THIS TROF HAVE MOVED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL...LEAVING US UNDER              
MCLR SKIES AND A BRIGHT MOON. W/ WK NW FLOW AND DEWPTS LINGERING IN             
LOWER 50S...PATCHY SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER WEST AND CENTRAL              
PARTS.                                                                          
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY IN WAKE OF TROF. ANY               
MORNING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS WE MIX DOWN                
DRIER AIR AND INCREASED NLY WINDS. MESOETA/RUC SHOW 950MB WINDS                 
PICKING UP TO 15-20KT IN EAST HALF...AND THIS WILL NOT ONLY PUSH                
LAKE SUPERIOR-COOLED AIR FURTHER INLAND...BUT ALSO MORE THAN OFFSET             
A LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZE. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...COOLEST AIR MISSES US              
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT H8 TEMPS DO DROP TO NEAR 10C OVER THE U P. W/            
GOOD VERTICAL MIXING (TO NEAR 800MB PER MESOETA SOUNDINGS)...THIS               
WOULD YIELD MID 70S INLAND. FOLKS RIGHT ON LAKE SUPERIOR WILL                   
PROBABLY NOT GET ABOVE 60F (IF THAT). W/ MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR (SEE            
00Z WPL SOUNDING)...AM EXPECTING SFC DEWPTS TO DROP WELL INTO THE               
40S THIS AFTN. A MODIFIED MESOETA SOUNDING FOR 75/49 INLAND THIS                
AFTN IS BARELY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HIGH-BASED PANCAKE CU...SO            
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CLOUD COVER.                        
DRY AIR (PWATS DROPPING TO NEAR 1/2 INCH) AND BUILDING HIGH PRES                
SETTING STAGE FOR A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. WILL ADJUST LOWS DOWN TO MID            
40S OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST TNGT...BUT EAST SHOULD BE A LITTLE              
WARMER AS WEAK NLY FLOW PERSISTS. THIS CONCURS W/ MOST GUIDANCE AND             
EXPECTED AFTN DEWPTS.                                                           
SUN INTO MON...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH REMAINS                  
ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO THE               
LOWER 580S. ETA/GFS SHOW H7 TEMPS OF 4-5C...WHICH WITH SFC DEWPTS NO            
HIGHER THAN 50F IS ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY AFTN CU FROM GETTING OUT OF            
HAND (EVEN WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION). SO...GOING DRY FCST              
LOOKS RIGHT ON...WITH HIGHS INTO MID/UPR 70S SUN RISING TO LOWER 80S            
MON (INLAND OF COURSE).                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
130 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
FORECAST CONCERNS: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES.             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS FRIDAY                       
EVENING...BUT STALLED ALONG THE BOSTON MTS. A SMALL LINE OF                     
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE            
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM OF CONVECTIVE                   
ACTIVITY. FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING IS SMALL DUE TO LARGE                
AREA OF CIRRUS THAT MOVED FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 1 AM...ALL STATIONS THAT REPORTED WERE VFR.             
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
I HESITATE TO COMPLETELY DISSOLVE FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING...BUT              
DON'T BELIEVE IT WILL BE AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE                
HAVE TRIMMED BACK TO PATCHY FOG FOR AREAS CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY            
THIS MORNING.                                                                   
LATEST RUC HOLDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BOSTON MTS...OR                  
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF A FORT SMITH TO JONESBORO LINE BY THE SATURDAY                
AFTERNOON. ETA/AVN SLOWLY MOVE THIS BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN              
ARKANSAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES SOUTHWARD...AND            
CONTINUES THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL             
GIVE THE BULK OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES                 
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER STILL ENOUGH AFTERNOON                      
INSTABILITY...AS CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...WILL LIKELY TOUCH               
OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF ANY BOUNDARIES WILL             
KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AT ANY ONE POINT OVER THE REGION.                  
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD.                 
EXTENDED...                                                                     
VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL                 
LIKELY CAUSE THE FORECASTED UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE            
ERRATIC...WHICH MAKES FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW FOR PRECIPITATION                 
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME CONTINUITY REMAINS BY LATE IN               
THE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES INLAND. THIS WILL               
LIKELY KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THINGS            
QUICKER IN THE LONGER TERM. SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE            
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK AND             
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. IF RIGHT...THE WET PATTERN WILL CHANGE TO A            
DRIER ONE AND ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER/HUMID WEATHER TO FILTER INTO THE            
OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS FORECASTED FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY.                  
FINAL GRIDS WILL BE SENT BY 230 AM.                                             
.SGF...                                                                         
.MO...NONE.                                                                     
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
352 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
05Z RUC SHOWS 25H UPPER TROF AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH OVER WEST                 
TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH 50 KT SPEED MAX ON THE WEST SIDE APPROACHING            
THE BIG BEND AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP HEIGHTS RISE OVER ARIZONA             
AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. MODELS DEPICTION OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER             
THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE RELATED TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK FROM FRIDAY                
EVENING MCS. DEEP EASTERLY UPSLOPE SHOULD EXTEND ABOVE 8H LATER TODAY           
AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL                 
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER AND EVEN WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AIRMASS               
SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVE                 
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH 30 POPS TODAY BUT WILL NOT RAISE. PLENTY OF              
MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING MAY LIMIT                  
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OUT WEST.                             
APPEARS MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH NEXT WEEK                
WITH WEAK RIDGE/HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FORECAST                 
CHALLENGE WILL BE TO IDENTIFY AND TIME SHORTWAVES THAT WILL SPARK               
CONVECTION.                                                                     
FCSTID = 13                                                                     
AMARILLO    82 58 80 61 / 30 30 20 20                                           
BEAVER      83 63 84 62 / 30 30 20 20                                           
BOISE CITY  77 56 81 58 / 30 30 20 20                                           
BORGER      82 58 84 61 / 30 30 20 20                                           
BOYS RANCH  80 57 83 60 / 30 30 20 20                                           
CANYON      82 56 82 59 / 30 30 20 20                                           
CLARENDON   83 61 81 63 / 30 30 20 20                                           
DALHART     79 56 81 58 / 30 30 20 20                                           
GUYMON      82 58 83 60 / 30 30 20 20                                           
HEREFORD    82 56 82 59 / 30 30 20 20                                           
LIPSCOMB    84 62 85 62 / 30 30 20 20                                           
PAMPA       83 60 81 62 / 30 30 20 20                                           
SHAMROCK    84 62 85 62 / 30 30 20 20                                           
WELLINGTON  84 63 85 62 / 30 30 20 20                                           
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
916 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
MORNING UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING ZONES TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES              
INTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL ADD THE REMAINDER OF WRN MD/ERN WV             
PANHANDLE AND THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY. SUNNY START THIS MORNING WILL              
HELP DESTABILIZE THINGS RATHER QUICKLY. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SHOWS                  
TYPICAL WET MICROBURST ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND VERY MOIST            
NEAR THE SFC. WITH MORE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO                    
YESTERDAY AMS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG.               
BOTH MESOETA/RUC HIT THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS VERY HARD THIS AFTERNOON               
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST TOWARD EVENING.  WILL ADD               
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE ZONES. FFA/EOL/ZFP             
OUT ASAP. RADAR IS DOWN ETS NOTIFIED AND HOPE TO HAVE RADAR BACK BY             
NOON.                                                                           
ROSA                                                                            
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
GOING TO HAVE TO START PHONING IN THE FORECAST FROM HOME...THIS IS              
GETTING RATHER MONOTONOUS. ANOTHER HUMID...STICKY...THUNDERSTORMS IN            
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING KIND OF DAY. WITH PRECIP H2O AMOUNTS AGAIN                
AROUND 2 INCHES AND DWPTS STAYING AROUND 70 DON/T SEE ANY REASON WHY            
THERE WILL NOT BE MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TODAY. FOR THAT REASON WILL               
COME OUT WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA. WILL AGAIN LEAVE               
OUT LOWR S MD AND THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA SINCE THE COASTL PLAIN SE             
OF THE FALL LINE IS MUCH HARDER TO FLOOD. THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT              
SW VA WHICH HAS HAD LESS RAIN...AND ALLGNY CO MD AND THE WESTERN                
COUNTIES FOR COORD PURPOSES. DAYSHIFT CAN ADD ONTO THIS AREA IF NEC             
LATER TODAY.                                                                    
FLOW DOES SEEM TO TURN A BIT FROM WEAK SW TO WEAK W TODAY SO                    
HOPEFULLY THAT CAN LIMIT TSRA ACTVTY SOMEWHAT. WILL HAVE POPS AS                
HIGH LIKLY TODAY INSTD OF THE CATGRCL THAT WE HAD YESTRDY.                      
SPC CAME OUT WITH ANOTHER SLGHT RISK DAY FOR US TODAY...AGAIN NOT               
MUCH CHG FROM THE PAST FEW. INSTAB AGAIN PREVALENT WITH LIS AROUND              
-2 TO -4. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HELCTY. ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE               
PRIMRLY DMG WINDS AND POSBLY SOME HAIL.                                         
COLD FRONT WILL EBB ACROSS THE AREA OVERNGHT WITH WINDS GOING FROM              
WEAK WSW TO NW AND EVNTLLY N BY EARLY SUN MORN.                                 
WENT WITH HIGHS A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTRDY WITH HIGHS GENRLLY IN              
THE MID 80S.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...WITH             
SHEARING SHORTWAVES LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE                
OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS SEEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST OVER THE              
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIES                  
BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEAST INTO               
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                                        
SHORTWAVE OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL SHEAR AWAY SOME ENERGY FROM THE              
UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE. THIS STRONGER WAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE              
SOUTHEAST AND KICK OUT THE UPPER LOW...ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING             
TO DEVELOP IN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC IN ITS WAKE SUNDAY. THIS PROCESS               
WILL HELP THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH INTO THE CWA                
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
DONT BUY THE MODELS BRINGING IN STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST               
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. MODEL UPPER AIR PATTERNS SHOW             
A BROAD SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE                   
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ETA/GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN/EUROPEAN ALSO            
AGREE THAT REMNANTS OF SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST             
WORKS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES TROUGH. THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN                   
SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION             
OF THE CWA...AND MAY EVEN RETURN NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE               
REINFORCES THE UPPER TROUGH. BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER AIR            
PATTERN WITH EACH MODEL...HAVE DECIDED TO INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS INTO            
FORECAST SUNDAY...MONDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY FOR             
NOW SINCE I THINK THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY.                        
NEXT WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM NORTHWEST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM            
DOESNT LOOK LIKE A PATTERN CHANGER. INSTEAD...GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A              
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN                 
CANADA...WHICH SHEARS THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST...STALLING THE SURFACE               
BOUNDARY IN THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK               
WEEK.                                                                           
ROGOWSKI                                                                        
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONE DCZ001.                              
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES                                     
     MDZ003>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014.                                      
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES                                     
     VAZ026>031...VAZ038>042...VAZ050>054.                                      
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES WVZ051>053.                         
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1111 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
UPDATE...                                                                       
JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/POP/SKY GRIDS AND A ZFP MORNING                  
PERIOD CLEANUP IS TRIGGERING THIS UPDATE. 12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED               
WEAK FRONT STILL JUST TO OUR WEST AND OOZING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.                  
PARAMETERS PLUCKED OFF OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF CNY CAPPED             
AT ABOUT 800-700 MB WITH NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE OR HEATING EXPECTED TO             
BREAK IT WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS. OVER NE PA SFC BASED                
HEATING AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE THIS REGION THE MOST UNSTABLE            
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ESPLY AS THE WEAK FRONT IS FCST TO BE OVER NE            
PA MID-LATE AFTN. AS CTP NOTED...PIT SOUNDING STILL SHOWING                     
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS AND WIND PROFILES FVRBL FOR TRAINING CELLS.               
RUC MBE VECTOR PROGS AT AVP ARE A LTL FASTER THIS AFTERNOON THAN                
LAST NIGHT. WE DID HAVE MESO-BETA SCALE LOW TOPPED HEAVY RAIN                   
PRODUCING CELLS AND FLASH FLOODING LAST EVENING...SO POTENTIAL IS               
STILL POSSIBLE. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD...BUT WILL BE ON              
THE LOOKOUT WITH EACH LINE THAT MAY DEVELOP. PREV FCST HANDLED                  
OVERALL TSRA FCST WELL WITH TARGET AREA FROM THE WY VALLEY OVER TO              
MSV. ELSEWHERE WILL STILL CONTINUE THE LOW CHCS FOR A SHOWER AS WK              
UPR TROF MOVES ACROSS NRN NY AND NEW ENG LATER TODAY.                           
BREWSTER                                                                        
EARLY AM DISCUSSION...                                                          
SHRT WAVE ALOFT PASSING E AND TAKING SCTRD RW/TRW WITH IT. THIS                 
ACVTY SHUD BE GONE B4 DAWN AND VERY ISLD LIGHT RW WORKS INTO THE CWA            
BY MID MORNING. REGION REMAINS UNDER QUITE A BIT OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE            
TODAY. SO WITH MAX HEATING THERE WILL SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF                     
CONVECTION THIS AFTRN. MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL SOME CAPPING WHICH IN             
NY SHUD PUT A LID ON DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING JUST CHC FOR RW- IN             
NY...DOWN IN PA WHERE DWPTS ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER...PARCELS MAY              
BE ABLE TO LOCALLY BREAK THRU CAP WITH SUNSHINE ESP ON THE POCONOS              
AND THEREFORE WILL HV CHC FOR RW- AND AN ISLD TRW-.                             
FOR TONIGHT...MAIN PV LOBE ALOFT SWINGS BY ACRS NY AND SUPPORTS SOME            
MID-LVL LIFTG. ETA SUGGESTS SOME CHC FOR SOME RW-...MAYBE A HOLD                
OVER FROM THE AFTRN ACVTY. GFS IS A BIT DRIER AND NOT AS SHARP AS               
THE ETA WITH THE VORT LOBE. IN ANY EVENT...IT IS WORTH A SLIGHT CHC             
OR AN ISLD RW- IN NY CLSR TO THE LIFTG WITH THE UPR WAVE. I WILL                
KEEP NE PA MAINLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A POSSIBLE HOLDOVER RW- PAST 0Z.               
IT IS THIS MAIN UPR FEATURE THAT PASSES THRU THIS EVE THAT WILL                 
ALLOW A STRG RDG ALOFT TO BUILD S AND SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVE FRNTL                
BNDRY TO THE S OF NY/N PA BY TONIGHT AND LEAD TO SUNNY CONDITIONS BY            
SUNDAY AND ALSO FOR MONDAY.                                                     
ISC GRIDS AVBL SOON. THANKS TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES FOR THE EXCELLENT            
CHAT COORDINATION. THANKS BUF FOR THE CALL.                                     
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
NICOSIA                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1125 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
LATEST 88D IMAGERY INDICATING PRECIP CONTINUING TO LIGHTEN ACROSS               
ILN FA. ASSOCIATED FORCING FROM MID LVL S/W CONTINUES TO DIMINISH               
ACCORDING TO LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. SUGGESTIONS ARE FOR MID LVL                   
FORCING TO BE REINFORCED DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS               
THE SRN PORTION OF OUR FA. BDRY LAYER FORCING HOWEVER...APPEARS VERY            
WEAK AT BEST IN THE VICINITY OF WK FRONTAL ZONE. WITH LATEST ETA AND            
RUC MODELS CONTINUING TO DROP THE FRONT SLOWLY S THROUGHOUT THE                 
DAY...FEEL THAT THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN              
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG WITH HEAVY             
RAIN PRODUCING STORMS THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO               
THE EVENING. CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...HOWEVER MAY ADJUST               
TEMPS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTH.                                                   
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
JTD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                     
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS               
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS                   
FEATURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL               
WYOMING.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF             
CWA THIS AFTERNOON...SOME WEAK 925-850 HPA MOISTURE CONVERGENCE                 
NOTED IN MESOETA/RUC ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER COUNTIES BY 18Z.  12Z                
SOUNDING FROM KABR SHOWING COUPLE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE                  
INVERSIONS BUT THIS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN ANY INHIBITION THIS                 
AFTERNOON.  RUC/MESOETA SB CAPES INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS            
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF WEAK 850 HPA THETA E                  
RIDGE.  SO WITH GOOD SOLAR HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS                         
AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH THIS WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE              
WILL JUST MENTION ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON CHANCE OF CONVECTION...BUT            
DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER IN THAT BETTER CHANCE DOES APPEAR             
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF EASTERN MONTANA DEFORMATION                 
AXIS.  LEFT TEMPERATURES AS IS WITH EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY NUDGING UP            
MAX T GRIDS ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BASED ON CURRENT                       
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.                            
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MARSILI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX ARIZONA                                        
235 PM MST SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT              
SLOWLY EAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER             
CALIFORNIA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAINING ACROSS MOST OF THE               
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY WARM...AND SOME AFTERNOON            
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN ARIZONA BY MID                
WEEK. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.             
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SOUNDINGS AND UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL              
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WAS JUST SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO THIS MORNING. WATER               
VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOWED A STEADY PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURES OVER               
THE REGION...AND LATEST RUC OUTPUT SUGGESTED THAT THE 500MB HIGH                
WILL SHIFT EAST ALL THE WAY TO THE NM BORDER BY 00Z. MODELS IN CLOSE            
AGREEMENT IN TAKING A WEAK RIPPLE INLAND TONIGHT...ALLOWING HEIGHTS             
AND THICKNESSES TO LEVEL OFF DURING NEXT TWO DAYS RATHER THAN BUILD             
GRADUALLY.  WILL THUS TREND TEMPERATURES NEARLY THE SAME FOR SUNDAY             
INTO MONDAY.  MOISTURE-WISE WE CAN EXPECT A SMALL INCREASE IN THE               
MID LEVEL DEW POINTS ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA...AND WILL TREND CLOUD              
COVER SLIGHTLY UP EACH DAY.  SHARP RH GRADIENT ALSO LIKELY EAST OF              
ZONE 24...FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION WELL EAST OF               
THE GLOBE-MIAMI AREA ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  AFTER WEDNESDAY            
MORNING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE SWEEPS INLAND...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO              
AN INCREASE IN CIFM CLOUDCOVER LATER IN THE WEEK.  THICKNESSES ALSO             
WILL TREND DOWN FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMALS FOR MID              
JUNE.  SIPPLE                                                                   
.PSR...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
...UPDATE...                                                                    
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN N CENTRL OK HAVE BEEN PERSISTING FOR SOME                
TIME NOW AND COULD VERY WELL PUSH A DECENT OUTFLOW BNDY INTO S                  
CENTRL KS. RUC MODEL TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS SCENARIO WHICH COULD              
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ACROSS S CENTRL KS. WILL             
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS STORM MOVEMENT IS NEARLY ZERO WHICH              
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.                            
TNGHT                                                                           
WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT POPS FOR NW CWA AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS               
THE AREA TNGHT WITH PREVIOUS FCST ON TRACK.                                     
SUN-MON                                                                         
WEAK UPPER WAVE FROM SATURDAY WOBBLES SOUTHWARD WITH ANOTHER WEAK               
UPPER WAVE HANGING OUT JUST TO THE N OF CWA ON SUNDAY. COULD SEE A              
FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY TRYING TO                        
DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER CENTRL KS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE             
WILL NOT MENTION IN THE ZONES AT THE MOMENT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS               
INTO THE REGION ON MON AND SHOULD KEEP US DRY WITH TEMPS REMAINING              
IN THE 80S.                                                                     
TUES                                                                            
NO CHANGES MADE AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA                 
WHICH SHOULD KEEP DRY CONDITIONS GOING.                                         
EXTENDED: WED-SAT                                                               
MED RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR                   
WED/THUR TIME FRAME...WITH TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WEST COAST WED AND            
THEN SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES COME THUR. WOULD EXPECT A FEW               
SHORT WAVES TO MIGRATE THRU THIS UPPER TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES ALONG            
WITH AMPLE MSTR STREAMING NORTHWARD UP THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.                 
MODELS DO SHOW A FEW WAVES SLIDING ALONG AND AT THE MOMENT THESE                
WAVES APPEAR TO BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO KEEP FCST DRY. TEMPS               
SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE                   
EXPECTED.                                                                       
HEADING INTO FRI IS WHEN GFS AND ECM BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR CONTINUITY.            
GFS FIZZLES OUT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH WESTERLIES MOVING BACK NORTHWARD          
BUT ECM SOLUTION SHOWS TROUGH MAINTAINING AND SHIFTS IT EAST. WILL              
SIDE WITH ECM MODEL THINKING THAT GFS IS DROPPING THE TROUGH TOO                
SOON AND WOULD EXPECT NEXT GFS RUN TO REFLECT THIS. VERY DEEP MSTR              
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AND COULD MOVE INTO                 
CENTRL KS AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. ECM SOLUTION SHOWS A              
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO            
WESTERN HALF OF CWA ON FRI. THE KEY WILL BE TIMING OF THIS WAVE                 
SLOWING DOWN/SPEEDING UP. SO WILL INTRO POPS FOR FRI AND CONTINUE TO            
WATCH AS TIMING COULD BE MOVED AROUND BY LATER SHIFTS. COULD TOSS               
CHANCES OF RAIN IN FOR SAT TOO BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THE MOMENT AND              
WAIT TO SEE WHAT NEXT MODEL RUN HAS TO OFFER. IF THE MODELS KEEP                
THEIR CURRENT SOLUTION GOING WILL PROBABLY NEED TO PUT CHANCES OF               
RAIN IN FOR SAT AS WELL.                                                        
FCSTID = 15/JAKUB                                                               
ICT   63  85  63  86 /   5   5   0   0                                          
HUT   62  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
EWK   63  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
EQA   63  85  63  86 /  10  10  10   0                                          
WLD   63  85  64  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
RSL   61  83  61  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
GBD   61  84  62  87 /  20  10  10   0                                          
SLN   62  84  62  86 /   5   0   0   0                                          
MPR   63  84  62  86 /  20  10  10   0                                          
CFV   64  84  64  85 /  10   0  10   0                                          
CNU   64  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0                                          
K88   64  84  62  85 /  10   0  10   0                                          
.ICT...                                                                         
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE RUNNING FROM NR CVG-CHILLICOTHE ATTM.               
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT            
BETTER ORGANIZED ON THE SOUTHSIDE.  RUC SHOWS WEAK MID LEVEL VORT               
SHIFTS FROM WESTERN KY TO ERN KY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  QUESTION IS              
HOW MUCH THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION. ETA AND AVN ARE SLOWER AND               
LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN NGM IN PUSHING FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA. FRONT                
MAKES IT SOUTH OF FA BY 06Z.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF PCPN IN THE                  
SOUTHERN THIRD FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.                                   
UPPER FLOW REMAINS WEAK OF THE SEVERAL DAYS.  ALTHOUGH AIR MASS                 
NORTH OF FRONT ISNT EXTREMELY STABLE...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE                 
PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF NORTH OF THE FRONT.                                      
VORT DROPS OUT OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND INTO IL BY TUE            
MORNING....THEN EJECTS UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING MID WEEK.  DO            
RECEIVE UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE SYSTEM UNTIL MID WEEK...SO WILL KEEP             
THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.                                           
MAV MOS CONTINUES TO LOOK TO COOL...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT               
FORECAST.                                                                       
CLEMISILN OUT SHORTLY.                                                          
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
SITES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
300 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO TRY            
TO RECOVER AFTER MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF             
THE STATE ON FRI. MOISTURE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED IN THE WAKE OF             
YESTERDAYS STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CEN TX AS SEEN IN THE DEWPOINT            
AND THETA-E FIELDS. HOWEVER...RWS ARE STARTING TO POP UP ALONG THE              
SEA BREEZE NE OF CORPUS CHRISTI BAY AS SE FLOW IS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS            
TO RECOVER ALONG THE COAST. WV ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA               
ACROSS NE TX/OK W/ A STRONG S/WV MVG DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW               
ACROSS NM AND WRN TX. MODELS DID NOT DO A GREAT JOB OF INITIALIZING             
THIS S/WV. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FEATURE MUCH STRONGER W/               
HEIGHT MAINLY ABOVE H5. STILL COUNTING ON THIS FEATURE SPARKING                 
CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK SFC ROF ACROSS NE MX AND CEN TX LATE THIS               
AFTN AND EVENING W/ ACTIVITY MVG TOWARDS THE COAST OVERNIGHT IN NW              
FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT LOOKING                   
PROMISING. GOING BY THE RUCS TIMING ON THE S/WV WOULD MEAN HIGHER               
POPS TONIGHT THAN DURING THE DAY SUN AS ANOTHER NOCTURNAL EVENT                 
UNFOLDS. THIS IS OPPOSITE OF INDICATIONS BY MOS POPS...BUT THE                  
MODELS AND MOS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD THUS FAR W/ THE PAST            
FEW DAYS EVENTS. SPC HAS THE NRN AREAS JUST BARELY INCLUDED IN A                
SLIGHT RISK AREA...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY LOW LVL JET TONIGHT AND            
LOWER THETA-E VALUES THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS. WILL JUST KEEP              
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE MENTIONED IN THE HWO FOR NOW.                         
UPR LVL LOW PRESSURE TROF AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN            
TX THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ S/WVS CONTINUING TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF            
THE TROF OVR THE REGION...WHILE OUTFLOWS AND WEAK SFC TROFS CONTINUE            
ACROSS THE REGION.  ANY CONVECTION IN ONE PERIOD WILL HAMPER                    
CONVECTION IN THE NEXT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS. SO ANY CONVECTION            
TONIGHT WILL HAMPER ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION ON SUN. IF THE TSTMS DO              
NOT DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN SUN WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT. GIVEN THE                 
UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP CHC POPS THROUGH SUN NIGHT REALIZING THESE                
WILL NEED TO BE MASSAGED W/ TIME AS THINGS UNFOLD.                              
MARINE...WEAK TROFFING TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OVR THE NRN            
GOMEX WILL PROMOTE JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WHICH WILL              
LIKELY BE INTERRUPTED BY OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH. MAY NEED A CAUTION            
FOR SEAS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH                
THROUGH THE PERIOD W/ NO FLAGS EXPECTED.                                        
LONG-TERM (MON THROUGH SAT)...FORECAST STILL REMAINS TRICKY AS                  
GFS/MRF/AVN STILL WANT TO KEEP MOISTURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AROUND             
DESPITE FORECAST OF NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND LACK OF UPPER                
SUPPORT.  GIVEN LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW AT THIS TIME...APPARENT               
DRIER AIR TRYING TO FILTER IN AS PER SATELLITE...AND LACK OF 850MB              
JET FEEL RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY NIGHT ONCE ALL OF THE             
APPARENT UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES EAST.  ONLY BOUNDARY IS THE                  
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH GFS TRIES TO LINGER AROUND THROUGH MID WEEK.               
THIS...IF ANYTHING MAY TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE                 
COAST (DESPITE PWAT FORECASTS 1.5 INCHES OR LESS).  WILL KEEP SOME              
CONVECTION MENTIONED THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO FIT AREAL FORECASTS...BUT             
WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP BEYOND THAT PERIOD AT THIS TIME.  WITH                  
GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING THE LONG TERM AND ACTUAL WEAK                
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE MIN TEMPS NEAR IF             
NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN RETURN FLOW TAKES HOLD              
AND THE MOISTURE RETURNS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF A                   
GRADUAL WARM-UP AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES.  NO PROBLEMS                 
EXPECTED ON THE MARINE SIDE OUTSIDE THE AREAS OF CONVECTION.                    
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
CRP BE 075/089 073/089 073 444423                                               
VCT BE 072/090 070/089 072 544423                                               
LRD BE 075/095 074/097 075 544222                                               
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
88/MJG...SHORT-TERM                                                             
86/GW...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
315 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES/MOISTURE AXES/WARMING             
THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  LONGER TERM                  
CONCERN IS WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES...ALLOWING                    
WEAKNESSES IN THE VORTICITY FIELD TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST                  
AREA.  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.                                           
DATA ANALYSIS THROUGH 19Z SHOWING AN AXIS OF SURFACE MOISTURE                   
/LAPS/MSAS THETA-E AND DEWPOINT ANALYSIS/ EXTENDING FROM                        
KGRB-KDBQ-KOTM.  THIS IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE 850MB MOISTURE AXIS             
NOTED BY THE RUC/ETA MODELS...AND IS ALSO WHERE RESIDUAL TROUGHING              
FROM THE DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS.  THUS...THE EFFECTS FROM                    
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...AND THE SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL               
WEAKNESS IN THE VORTICITY FIELD NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR                        
IMAGERY...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA.                 
GFS/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER               
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  TONIGHT...THE ETA/RUC SUGGEST THAT A                    
BOUNDARY MOVES WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN.  THIS IN EFFECT DRIES OUT THE             
FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST.  AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WEST...THE             
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED ALONG THE MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY.  THIS IS              
ENOUGH FOR THE RUC TO PRODUCE WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF            
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL NOTE THIS TO THE RELIEF THIS EVENING SO             
IT CAN BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING.                   
THE MOISTURE AXIS...BOTH SURFACE AND AT 850 MB MOVES TO A POSITION              
THAT EXTENDS FROM KMCW-KRST-KMDZ SUNDAY MORNING.  SBCAPES AGAIN                 
REACH INTO THE 2000+ J/KG RANGE WITH NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NOTED             
BY AFTERNOON.  THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE                
DAKOTAS MOVING INTO A POSITION FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE                
FORECAST AREA WOULD SUGGEST THE SAME SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION            
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THIS AXIS.                                   
THEREFORE...INTRODUCED THIS INTO THE FORECAST.                                  
THE SAME CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THERE             
BEING NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE THAT WOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION.                     
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS THETA-E AXIS REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE A 10             
PERCENT CHANCE IN THE DATABASE TO PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR                      
INTRODUCING CONVECTION IN THIS AREA SHOULD IT BE NECESSARY.                     
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE SLIGHTLY OVER             
THE WESTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE EASTERN            
COUNTIES.  THE SOUNDING SUGGESTS A DEEP MIXING LAYER...WITH DRY                 
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES.  THEREFORE...USED AN EXTRAPOLATED 850                    
TEMPERATURE AND CAME UP WITH HIGHS NEAR PERSISTENCE...REFLECTING THE            
EXPECTED DIFFERENCE EAST TO WEST.  DITTO FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY.  THIS              
RESULTED IN A FEW DEGREE RISE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  WITH THE TROUGH              
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...COMPRESSIONAL WARMING SHOULD            
AID THE TEMPERATURE RISES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  MADE THIS THE WARMEST            
DAY.                                                                            
THE GFS IS NOW SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY                 
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.  THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE THE AMPLITUDE OF THE               
WESTERN TROUGH.  THIS RESULTS IN HIGHER WAVES DOWNSTREAM AND                    
RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                
THE RESULT...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA              
FASTER.  ADJUSTED THE TIMING UPWARD BY 6 HOURS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE                
OVER THE WEST AND THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC FOR THE                
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.                                                       
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
$$                                                                              
KRC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS THROUGH QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE                   
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED/WED NIGHT.                
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR S SECTIONS OF FORECAST ARE WEST OF               
JANSEVILLE TO DARLINGTON.  BEST STORM WEST OF JANESVILLE PRBABLY                
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE OF DEEPER LAKE INFLUENCE TO THE EAST. ALSO               
WEAK SUBTLE MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW            
10 THSD FT WHERE MESOETA HAS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RUC SOUNDINGS                
HAVE MUCH WEAKER CAP...WHICH IS ALOWING THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS              
TO DEVELOP.  WET BULB ZERO RELATIVELY LOW...SO SOME SMALL HAIL                  
POSSIBLE.  AS EASTERLY FLOW AND LAKE AIR BECOMES MORE                           
ESTABLISHED...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.             
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEN BEOME DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE NOW              
CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                
NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER            
NEW 12Z GFS CONTINUES WEAKENING TREND...WITH MON SHRT WV CUTTING OFF            
OVER SRN IL...AND NRN BRANCH OF UPR JET WELL NORTH IN SRN CANADA.               
WITH ONLY A WEAK SFC TROF CROSSING THE STATE...WILL CONTINUE CHC                
POPS MAINLY WED/WED NIGHT.  THEN NEXT SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO GREAT            
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi