July 25, 2002

Consumption Down in 2001,
But Likely To Rise in 2002

In 2002, per capita vegetable and melon disappearance (also 
referred to as use or consumption) is forecast to rise 1 
percent to 451 pounds. Increased use of fresh, canning, and 
freezing vegetables is expected to outweigh reduced use of 
potatoes and sweet potatoes. Canned and frozen vegetables 
are expected to rise 2 to 3 percent as the economy improves, 
output rises, and prices soften. Potato use in 2002 is 
expected to decline due to higher retail prices most of the 
year caused by smaller storage supplies from the short 2001 
crop.

In 2001, per capita vegetable and melon use declined 1 
percent to 449 pounds. Fresh-market use (excluding potatoes) 
was unchanged at 173 pounds while freezing (down 1 percent) 
and canning (down 3 percent) use were lower. Per capita use 
of potatoes, the largest vegetable category, likely 
increased 1 percent to 140 pounds, reflecting lower prices 
stemming from the record-large 2000 fall potato crop.

Highlights in consumption trends from 2001 include:
o  Record-high per capita use of fresh-market tomatoes, 
which reached 17.9 pounds. However, processing tomato use 
reached its lowest point since 1988 as the recession slowed 
demand for food away from home;

o  The recession also impacted fresh-market onion use, which 
declined 1 percent to 18.1 pounds per person despite 
adequate supplies and low prices;
o  Fresh-market sweet corn use posted a record-high 9.4 
pounds per person, but the canning market continued its 
long-term decline;
o  Snap bean use continued to move slowly upward as small 
gains in fresh and freezing use outweighed reduced canning 
use;
o  Despite a small gain in the fresh market, carrot use 
declined for the fourth consecutive year after posting a 
record-high in 1997;
o  Pickling cucumber use may have hit its lowest point since 
1952, but fresh use remained stable;
o  Melon use recovered from a brief slide in 2000 led by 
increased watermelon and cantaloup use;
o  Despite the smallest fresh-market use since 1990, per 
capita potato use increased 1 percent as processing use rose 
2 percent.

The Census Bureau released the final revised U.S. figures 
linking the 1990 and 2000 population censuses. The impact of 
incorporating the final Census 2000 population estimates for 
1991-2000 (and beyond) has been to reduce total per capita 
vegetable use. For example, the estimate of total vegetable 
per capita use declined by 12 pounds in 1999 as total 
disappearance was divided into a larger population base. The 
July 1, 1999, population estimate increased from 272.9 
million to a revised 278.9 million. Although per capita use 
estimates have been trimmed, all familiar long-term 
consumption trends remain intact.

Vegetable Output Declines in 2001

Total U.S. vegetable and melon output fell 7 percent in 2001 
due to reduced acreage, cool, wet spring weather in 
California, and pockets of drought in the upper Midwest and 
the East. Increased production for dry edible peas (up 8 
percent), melons (up 7 percent), sweet potatoes (up 6 
percent), and vegetables for freezing (up 4 percent) was 
outweighed by smaller crops for other aggregate categories--
notably, fresh and canning vegetables. Fresh vegetable 
production (excluding melons) dropped 1 percent led by 
double-digit percentage cuts for spinach, bell peppers, 
garlic, and squash. Canning vegetable production fell 14 
percent led by a 15-percent cut in tomatoes for processing. 
Reduced acreage (down 8 percent) and yields pulled U.S. 
potato output down 13 percent in 2001, while reduced 
plantings and drought in Michigan and New York helped drive 
dry bean production down 26 percent. 

Fresh Market Prices Up  

During the first 6 months of 2002, shipping-point (a proxy 
for grower prices) prices averaged 22 percent above a year 
earlier as unusually cool winter weather in California and 
Arizona interfered with the production and marketing of 
cool-season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. After 
reaching record-highs in March led by iceberg lettuce prices 
of more than $50 per 24-head carton, shipping-point prices 
declined in April, May, and June as ideal growing weather 
brought larger supplies into the market. 

In 2001, shipping-point and retail prices for fresh-market 
vegetables each increased 5 percent from a year earlier. 
Most of the gain came during the first half of the year as 
shipping-point prices averaged 20 percent above a year 
earlier during January-June and 9 percent lower during July-
December. Retail prices were up 8 percent during the first 
half and up 2 percent during the last half of the year. 
Price movements generally reflected the pattern of supply 
and demand in 2001 as bad weather cut first-half production 
while second-half demand (particularly for away-from-home 
meals) was reduced by economic uncertainties caused by the 
recession and the events of September 11. For the year, 
lower shipping-point prices for celery (down 21 percent), 
broccoli (down 19 percent), and cauliflower (down 18 
percent) were outweighed by higher prices (caused by smaller 
crops) for carrots (up 33 percent), asparagus (up 20 
percent), and sweet corn (up 8 percent). 

In calendar 2001, the continued strength of the U.S. dollar 
and weak demand in some key markets allowed the trade 
deficit in vegetable, melon, and pulse crops to continue 
expanding. While the value of U.S. exports decreased 3 
percent to $3.2 billion, imports rose 10 percent to $4.5 
billion. Exports last exceeded imports in 1995. In 2001, 
U.S. vegetable, melon, and pulse imports from Mexico 
increased 14 percent, and Mexicos share of U.S. imports 
rose from 45 to 47 percent. Mexico had been losing market 
share to Canada over the past few years, with imports from 
Canada also rising 14 percent in 2001, driven largely by 
fresh greenhouse vegetables, frozen potatoes, and canned 
sweet corn. Canada maintained its 24 percent share of the 
U.S. vegetable, melon, and pulse import market. With 
increased shipments of dry beans and canned mushrooms,  
imports from China increased 15 percent to $150 million--3 
percent of the U.S. import market.

In 2001, the United States exported about 7 percent of its 
fresh-market vegetable and melon supplies (production plus 
imports), about the same as the previous 3 years. On the 
other side of the ledger, higher domestic prices increased 
the incentive to export to the United States, with the 
import share of consumption rising from 14 to 15 percent--
still below 1998s record-high of 16 percent.

Processing Output Down in 2001;
Set To Rise in 2002

Processors of five major vegetables (tomatoes, sweet corn, 
snap beans, green peas, and cucumbers for pickles) have 
contracted 1.26 million acres in 2002--up 3 percent from the 
comparable producing States of a year ago. Most of the rise 
will come from tomatoes, with processors contracting for 10 
percent more acres despite generally weak wholesale prices, 
moderate stocks, and lackluster demand for tomato products. 
Contract area was greater for green peas (up 3 percent), 
cucumbers for pickles (22 percent), and snap beans (2 
percent).
  
Continued weak wholesale prices prompted processors to cut 
sweet corn contract area, with area for both freezing (down 
6 percent) and canning (down 3 percent) lower. Assuming 
average acreage losses and trend yields this coming season, 
output of the five leading processing vegetables could be 12 
to 14 percent above a year ago and total nearly 16 million 
short tons. Output of canning vegetables could rise more 
than 15 percent in 2002, while output for freezing could 
decline 3 to 5 percent. Average retail prices for processed 
vegetables (frozen, canned, and dried) increased 5 percent 
during the first 6 months of 2002, reflecting reduced canned 
stocks and higher marketing costs. 

Green peas:  The first estimate of 2002 contract production 
for processing green peas indicated a 1-percent decline from 
a year earlier to 380,680 short tons. Estimated area for 
harvest was about the same as a year earlier, with acreage 
generally higher in the East and lower in the West. Per- 
acre yields are expected to fall 2 percent to 1.81 tons per 
acre--the second consecutive decline from the 2000 record. 
Green pea production is expected to increase 13 percent in 
Minnesota, the top producing State and decline 5 percent in 
Washington--the second leading State. Wholesale prices for 
both canned and frozen green peas have been running slightly 
higher over the past year.

Tomatoes:  The larger tomato crop expected in 2002 follows a 
15-percent decline in 2001. Acreage was down 5 percent last 
year and yields were down 10 percent. More than compensating 
for the smaller crop was an 87-percent jump in import 
volume, with sauces accounting for much of the gain. Exports 
also increased, rising 8 percent to 2.4 billion pounds--7 
percent of available supply (production plus imports and 
beginning stocks). Calendar year per capita use of 
processing tomatoes declined 2 percent to an estimated 68.7 
pounds (fresh-weight)--the lowest since 1988. 

Sweet corn:  Production of processing sweet corn declined 
slightly in 2001 as canning corn dropped 11 percent, while 
output of sweet corn destined for frozen products increased 
12 percent. Imports of canned sweet corn increased 46 
percent, with Canada supplying nearly two-thirds and 
Thailand about one-third. Imports were record-high in 2001 
and now account for about 4 percent of consumption. Exports, 
the primary market for 20 percent of supplies, declined for 
the fourth consecutive year--falling 16 percent to the 
lowest level since 1991. Continued softness in the export 
market, particularly Japan, is critical to an industry which 
faces declining long-run domestic demand. In 2001, per 
capita use of canning corn fell below 9 pounds for the first 
time in decades. 

Fresh Output Down in 2001;
Summer 2002 Area Stable 

This summer (largely July-September), fresh-market vegetable 
and melon area for harvest is forecast to remain about even 
with a year ago at 324,400 acres. For the most part, 
increased area for snap beans and head lettuce about offset 
reductions in crops such as broccoli, cabbage, and sweet 
corn. Steady summer area follows declines in both winter and 
spring vegetable area. During the summer quarter of 2001 
(July-September),  prices received by growers and shippers 
of fresh-market vegetables and melons averaged about 5 
percent above a year earlier. California, accounting for 48 
percent of this years summer-season vegetable and melon 
area, increased acreage 1 percent. New York, the second 
leading summer-season producer, with 13 percent of acreage, 
expects to harvest 2 percent less area than a year ago due 
largely to an unusually cool, wet spring which hindered 
planting. With area up in California (where yields exceed 
the national average) and at least average yields in Eastern 
States afflicted by either too much rain (Ohio and New York) 
or too little rain (Georgia and parts of Texas) this summer, 
market volume may remain slightly above that of a year ago. 
As a result, summer-season fresh-market vegetable prices are 
likely to average below those of the past 2 years. 

In 2001, fresh-market output (excluding melons) was reduced 
and prices averaged above those of the previous year. Some 
of the 2001 highlights for selected crops follow: 

Head lettuce:  Driven by increased acreage, head lettuce 
production rose 4 percent in 2001. Although still less than 
1 percent of lettuce consumption, import volume was up for 
the third consecutive year--rising 44 percent. Export 
volume, hampered by the strong dollar and higher domestic 
prices, rose just 1 percent with 5 percent of supplies 
exported in 2001. Shipping-point prices rose 1 percent to 
$17.60 per hundredweight (cwt)--the highest since 1995. Per 
capita use totaled 24.2 pounds in 2001--up 3 percent from a 
year earlier and the highest since 1994. 

Tomatoes:  Despite a 4-percent increase in harvested area, 
field tomato production fell 2 percent in 2001 as per-acre 
yields declined. After moderating in 1999 and 2000, import 
volume increased 13 percent to 1.8 billion pounds. Import 
share of consumption rose from 30 to 33 percent between 2000 
and 2001. Although down 3 percent, tomato export volume was 
still the second highest on record at 398 million pounds. 
Spurred by increased imports, domestic consumption reached a 
record-high 5.1 billion pounds in 2001, with per capita use 
also record-high at 17.9 pounds. 

Onions:  U.S. fresh-market onion production declined 4 
percent to 5.8 billion pounds as both area harvested and 
yield declined in 2001. Imports increased 32 percent to a 
record-high 639 million pounds--13 percent of domestic 
consumption. Increased volume was imported from Peru (up 77 
percent), Canada (up 74 percent), and Mexico (up 20 
percent). Exports declined 6 percent to 719 million pounds 
as volume shipped to Japan, typically the top export 
destination, declined 33 percent due to a weak economy and 
reduced beef use due to food safety concerns. Per capita use 
of fresh-market onions remained fairly steady at 18.1 
pounds--down just 1 percent from a year earlier and 4 
percent below the record level set in 1997.

Broccoli:  Although reduced output in California pulled U.S. 
fresh-market broccoli production down 4 percent to 19 
million cwt in 2001, output was still the third highest on 
record. For the seventh consecutive year, import volume 
crept higher--rising 3 percent to account for 7 percent of 
consumption. The U.S. remains a net exporter of fresh-market 
broccoli despite a 12-percent drop in volume from the 
unusually strong exports reached in 2000. Despite a 19-
percent decline in shipping-point prices, per capita use 
fell for the second consecutive year--dropping 3 percent to 
5.8 pounds, still the third highest on record. 

Output of Potatoes, Pulses, and
Mushrooms Expected Higher in 2002

Potatoes:  U.S. fall-season potato growers expect to harvest 
5 percent more acres in 2002. Harvested area is expected to 
be higher for the top two States, Idaho (up 7 percent) and 
Washington (9 percent), but lower for Minnesota (down 4 
percent) and for the third leading producer, Wisconsin (down 
5 percent). Californias fall acreage is up 240 percent, 
recovering from the shutoff of irrigation water in the 
Klamath basin last year. During the March to May period, 
when most fall-season potatoes were being planted, U.S. 
shipping-point prices for all potatoes averaged $9.18 per 
cwt, 74 percent above a year ago. 

Reflecting higher potato prices at planting time, summer-
season potato growers expect to increase harvested area 
about 3 percent this year. With per-acre yields expected to 
be 1 percent lower, summer potato production is expected to 
rise 3 percent. The summer crop typically accounts for close 
to 4 percent of all potato production, with Texas, 
California, and Colorado the leading States.

In 2001, lower harvested area (down 8 percent) and a 6-
percent drop in per-acre yield left total U.S. potato 
production down 13 percent to 445 million cwt--the smallest 
potato crop since 1993. Total domestic potato shipments 
(fresh, seed, chipping) declined 6 percent from a year 
earlier during calendar 2001 and have been running below a 
year earlier so far in 2002. With higher prices in the U.S. 
market, import volume of fresh-market potatoes (excluding 
seed) from Canada increased 42 percent from last years low 
levels. The volume of frozen potato imports from Canada 
continued to climb to another record-high, rising 14 percent 
from a year earlier. The preliminary season-average farm 
price received for all 2001-crop potatoes was estimated at 
$6.60 per cwt, up 30 percent from the previous season. 

Sweet potatoes:  Despite slightly higher prices in 2001, 
U.S. sweet potato growers expect to harvest 2 percent fewer 
acres this fall. Louisiana and Mississippi will account for 
the majority of the reduction while industry leader, North 
Carolina, increased acreage 3 percent. If 2002 yields come 
in around the average of the past 5 years (152 cwt/acre), 
U.S. production could decline 3 to 5 percent from a year 
ago. Lower production in 2002 could keep sweet potato per 
capita use just below last years level of 4.3 pounds. In 
2001, sweet potato production increased nearly 6 percent as 
improved yields in many States outweighed a 1-percent cut in 
harvested area. Although trade has traditionally played a 
minor role in the industry, export volume has been steadily 
rising since 1989, with 3 percent of supply now being 
shipped to other nations. 

Dry beans:  In 2001, lower dry bean plantings and drought 
losses reduced area harvested 23 percent to 1.24 million 
acres, the lowest since 1983. With yields down 4 percent, 
dry bean production fell 26 percent to 19.5 million cwt. 
With the exception of garbanzo, blackeye, and pink beans, 
production was lower across all dry bean classes. With 
output down, stocks for most classes dwindled and grower and 
dealer prices rose. The large rise in prices (25 percent and 
more) during the past marketing year encouraged dry bean 
growers to increase planted area 30 percent in 2002. With 
better weather and reduced acreage losses expected this 
summer, harvested area could rise 40 percent from a year 
ago. Given this area plus trend yields, production could 
rise 45 percent this fall. Harvested area is expected to be 
up in most major States, including North Dakota (75 
percent), Minnesota (38 percent), and Nebraska (18 percent). 
Harvested area in Michigan is expected to double as the 
State recovers from devastating drought losses of a year 
ago. As in many other Western States, acreage in Colorado is 
expected to decline 14 percent as a result of a season-long 
drought making dryland production impractical on the western 
slope of the Rockies and stressing irrigation supplies for 
growers in the northeastern portion of the State. With few 
exceptions, national production is expected to increase for 
most bean classes, including navy, pinto, and black. During 
the first 6 months of 2002, grower prices for dry beans 
averaged 65 percent above a year ago and were the highest 
since 1990. Dry bean export volume over the first 5 months 
of 2002 was down 9 percent from a year earlier. Before 
recovering in May, volume during January to April had been 
the lowest since 1977. Among the major export markets, 
reduced volume was shipped to France (down 58 percent), 
Italy (down 68 percent) and the United Kingdom (down 32 
percent) but was partly offset by rising sales to Japan, 
Mexico, and Canada--each up 20 percent. 

Dry peas and lentils:  In 2001, drought and irrigation water 
shortages in the Pacific Northwest reduced yields and 
production of lentils (down 10 percent) and dry green peas 
(down 9 percent). Larger planted area offset a small yield 
reduction to push dry yellow pea production up 25 percent. 
Output of yellow peas has been increasing with expansion of 
the dry pea industry in the upper Midwest and now accounts 
for about a third of dry pea production. Season-average 
prices for both dry peas (down 12 percent) and lentils (down 
4 percent) were lower in 2001 and were also low relative to 
historical trends. These crops are now covered by a new 
marketing loan program under recently passed Federal farm 
legislation (see the June Vegetables and Melons Outlook for 
more details). Planted area for all dry peas is up 28 
percent in 2002, while lentil area is down 5 percent. With 
improved moisture conditions, yield and output for both are 
expected to rise. 

Mushrooms:  In the 2000/01 mushroom season (July-June), 
total U.S. mushroom sales declined 2 percent to 853 million 
pounds. With processed mushroom import volume returning to 
levels experienced prior to the institution of dumping 
duties on several countries in early 1999, processing 
mushroom sales volume fell 18 percent. Because of rising 
imports and increased consumer preference for fresh 
mushrooms, sales of domestically produced processing 
mushrooms were 40 percent below their 1992/93 peak and were 
the lowest since the 1970-71 season. In contrast, sales of 
fresh agaricus mushrooms rose 3 percent to a record-high 687 
million pounds. The fresh market accounted for 82 percent of 
all agaricus mushroom sales volume and 89 percent of total 
agaricus value. Sales of certified organic mushrooms totaled 
8.5 million pounds, down 27 percent from a year ago. Organic 
output accounts for about 1 percent of all mushroom sales.
The value of domestic mushroom sales totaled $863 million in 
2000/01, placing the crop fourth (following potatoes, 
tomatoes, and lettuce) among all vegetable crops. Shiitake, 
oyster, and other specialty mushrooms combined with agaricus 
Portobello- and agaricus Crimini-type mushrooms now account 
for $156 million in crop value--18 percent of all mushroom 
sales. 

Printed copies of the Vegetables and Melons Yearbook will be 
available in about 4 weeks. For further information contact 
Gary Lucier 202-694-5253. The Yearbook tables can be 
accessed from the ERS web site in both .xls and .pdf formats 
using the following link:  
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/vgs/
 
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