AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
900 PM EST MON NOV 18 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES AREA AND EXTENDS SW INTO TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL JET OVER LOWER AND            
MID MS VALLEY WILL BE SHIFTING ENE AND ALLOW LITTLE MORE HIGH LEVEL             
MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO CWA. JAX SOUNDING INDICATES AIRMASS SLOWLY              
MODIFYING WITH VEERING WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. VERY SHARP                 
INVERSION A FEW HUNDRED FEET UP. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC HIGH PRES              
RIDGE OVER CWA AND NEWD TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. WEAK INVERTED                    
TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF STREAM KEEPING WINDS NNE ALONG THE COAST.               
MAY SEE FEW-SCT CLOUDS NEAR 2-3 KFT ADVECT INLAND S OF DUVAL COUNTY             
OVERNIGHT. (RUC 925 MB WINDS ARE DUE E.) LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS               
STRATO-CU MOVING INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS S OF ST AUGUSTINE. WINDS             
ARE CALM INLAND WITH LOWER 40S BEING REPORTED. A COUPLE OF OBS                  
ALREADY IN UPPER 30S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH NO                    
WIND/CLOUDINESS AND SO BELIEVE SOME SITES WILL DIP TO FREEZING. FOR             
INLAND FL ZONES WILL ADD A MENTION OF "CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPS IN              
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS." PRIME AREA FOR THIS WILL ROUGHLY BE FROM            
OCALA TO LIVE OAK. WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALSO INDICATE GREATER             
INLAND-COASTAL TEMP RANGES OVER FL ZONES.                                       
MARINE...BUOY 41012 SHOWS WINDS 030 DEG AT 12G19 KT AND SEAS                    
DROPPING TO AROUND 3-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE BELOW SCEC            
CRITERIA SO WILL REMOVE HEADLINE ON THE UPDATE AND MAY RECOMBINE                
ZONES.                                                                          
.JAX...                                                                         
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
ARS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1022 PM EST MON NOV 18 2002                                                     
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO MOVING               
NORTHEAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF PCPN STRETCHING FROM             
NRN LWR SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MOVING DECIDEDLY EWD. NOT             
MUCH PCPN CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE            
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS A FAIRLY LARGE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS NRN IL MOVES               
NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. THE PCPN SHIELD CORRESPONDS NICELY WITH THE             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FIELD ON THE RUC 290K SFC. THE RUC                
SUGGESTS THAT CPD/S WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT                
CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS. THUS WE WILL LEAVE THE CAT POPS AS            
THEY ARE. CONCERNS TONIGHT MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND SNOW POTENTIAL.                
LATEST FCST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN CWA WITH            
TEMP PROFILES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW 0C. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SEEMS            
TO BE LINING UP WITH THE 1311 DM LINE ON THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS.              
THE NRN CWA REMAINS AOB THIS VALUE OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT, HOWEVER                   
SUGGESTS THAT WET BULB ZERO HTS WILL INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT ACROSS              
THE FAR NORTH. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ABOUT TO MOVE THRU, I DON'T                 
NECESSARILY THINK THAT WE'LL SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF WARM AIR INVADE THE            
NRN CWA. THUS, I'LL LEAN TOWARD MOSTLY SNOW. I'LL LEAVE THE LIGHT               
ACCUMS AS THEY ARE.                                                             
93                                                                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
937 PM EST MON NOV 18 2002                                                      
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THICKENED THE CLOUDS OVER SE MICHIGAN THIS             
EVENING. THE DTX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING                 
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT THE TRACE OF MIXED PRECIP OBSERVED HERE ON THE             
HILL. A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS REPORTED A BRIEF SPRINKLE.                          
AS THE 850 TO 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER OUR AREA DURING              
THE REST THE NIGHT, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE PATTERN OF RAINFALL              
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF AND FRONT TO OUR WEST. AREA RADAR                
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN THE              
850 MB THETA-E RIDGE AS DPVA AND UPPER JET SUPPORT GET INTO THE                 
ACT.                                                                            
SURFACE OBS OF RAIN ALL THE WAY UP TO GREEN BAY SUPPORT MODEL                   
THICKNESS FORECASTS SUGGESTING ALL RAIN FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, THE            
TRACE AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIP OBSERVED HERE AT DTX AND OUR 00Z                  
SOUNDING SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR EVAPORATIONAL                   
COOLING BELOW 800 MB TONIGHT. THE LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW A TEMP              
PROFILE THAT IS COOLER THAN EVEN THE 00Z ETA WAS ABLE TO INITIALIZE.            
WITH THIS IN MIND, PLAN TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR            
THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                  
CATEGORICAL RAIN LOOKS GOOD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH THE                  
PRECIP MOVING TO OUR EAST AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.                           
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
BT                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
347 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2002                                                      
MAIN CONCERNS THIS PKG TO BE TEMPS TDA AND CHCS FOR PCPN LT IN NR               
TERM PTN. MDLS INITIALIZED UA PTTN FAIRLY WELL XCPT RUC TOO FAR E               
WITH 50H TROF OVR LWR MO VLY AT 00Z.  PCPN MOVD QUICKLY E DURG EVE              
AND SKIES CLRD OVR FA. IR SAT PIX SHWG CI/CS STREAMING INTO NRN AND             
CTRL PLNS AHD OF NXT S/WV AND MORE IN LINE WITH SLGTLY SLOWER ETA               
GUID. HI CLDS SHUD MOV INTO NRN AND WRN ZNS BY MIDDAY BUT SFC TEMPS             
SHUD STIL CLIMB INTO MID-UPR 50S AS WAA INCREASES WITH WLY LO LVL               
WNDS.                                                                           
RH TO BE MARGINAL WITH NXT S/WV THRU RGN ON WED BUT WL CONT LO POPS             
FOR WED AND IN NRN AND ERN ZNS FOR WED NGT. 50H LO CUTS OFF OVR SRN             
GTLKS AFT 60H WITH MUCH COLDER AIR INTO RGN ON THU. WL LWR GOING                
TEMPS FOR RMNDR OF XTNDD. TEMPS TO BE COLD ENUF ON SUN FOR -SN AND              
WL KP CHC POPS FOR MIX PCPN LT IN XTNDD.                                        
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
UIN BC 055/037 053/034 040 03013                                                
COU UE 057/037 054/036 042 03013                                                
JEF UE 058/037 054/036 042 03013                                                
STL UE 058/039 056/038 044 030-3                                                
SLO BE 058/037 053/037 042 030-3                                                
FAM UB 059/036 056/037 045 030-3                                                
.STL...NONE                                                                     
WDB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
340 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2002                                                      
...SHORT TERM...                                                                
MDLS AGREE THAT A CLOSED 50H HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER CA TODAY AND MOVE           
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES REMAINING PRETTY MUCH            
IN THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THEREFORE...WINDS ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD                
REMAIN FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW 50H S/WS                
WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER TO THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE             
S/W BRINGING MAINLY THICK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE CWA EARLY THIS               
MRNG WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE                
CWA THIS AFTN. OVERALL...WILL GO P/C FOR THE CWA TODAY. THE RUC                 
SHOWS PRETTY GOOD WINDS OFF THE SFC THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA.             
THEREFORE...EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY THIS MRNG AS TEMPS RISE. MDL             
TSCTS DO NOT SHOW MUCH VARIATION IN THE LL TEMP PROFILES FOR THE CWA            
THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY TO BE SIMILAR TO YSTRDYS HIGHS.             
TSCTS ALL SHOW GOOD MID LEVEL RH RETURNING TONIGHT WITH THE PRES                
GRADIENT WEAKENING SOME AS WE BEGIN TO RECEIVE THE INFLUENCES OF A              
MORE SIGNIFICANT S/W COMING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE...LOOK              
FOR SKIES TO CLOUD UP TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING             
W TO SW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR OVER THE CWA...TEMPS WILL            
ONLY FALL TO THE 30S BY MRNG.                                                   
...LONG TERM...                                                                 
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY                  
AFTERNOON AND THEN TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH A FEW SHOTS OF COLDER AIR            
FOR THE WEEKEND.  MODELS AGREE ON DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE EAST OF              
CWA ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY                    
MORNING.  BOTH ETA AND GFS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH THIS               
WAVE...MORE COMPARABLE IN DEPTH TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  UKMET SEEMS             
TO BE THE ODD ONE OUT AND WILL TREND TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION             
GIVEN ECMWF CONSISTENCY IN THIS RESPECT AND TRENDS OF SLIGHTLY MORE             
AMPLITUDE WITH ETA/GFS.  WITH LARGEST UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE HEIGHT               
TENDENCIES ANTICIPATED EAST OF CWA...THE MAIN LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH               
THIS WAVE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO THE EAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E RIDGING CONFINED MAINLY TO               
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  CURRENT                    
FORECAST IS DRY AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS.  MAIN QUESTION                
WILL BE TIMING OF LOW LEVEL CAA.  HAVE LEANED TOWARD ETA IN TIMING              
ONSET OF LOW LEVEL CAA WITH NORTHERN CWA EXPERIENCING MOST                      
SIGNIFICANT CAA IN THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME.  DESPITE SURFACE FRONTAL             
PASSAGE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOUTHWEST CWA SHOULD SEE                   
TEMPERATURES WARM FAIRLY NICELY IN POST-FRONTAL MIXING ENVIRONMENT.             
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 ACROSS                     
SOUTHWEST.  WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.  BOTH ETA/GFS IN THE                
45-50 KNOT RANGE WITH 850 HPA WINDS AND MESOETA CARRYING 40 KNOT 925            
HPA WINDS BY 00Z THURSDAY.  STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BEHIND LOW LEVEL             
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD MIXING BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON            
AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER HEADLINES FOR WINDS IN LATER FORECASTS.                
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CAA MAINLY ACROSS               
EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PINNING DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THIS             
CLOUD DECK SETS UP WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TRICKY.                  
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT LOCAL PRESSURE               
RISES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS GOING FOR MOST OF              
THE NIGHT ACROSS ENTIRE CWA...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OUT WEST             
TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY.  QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES              
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CWA THURSDAY WITH WESTERN CWA GETTING INTO                   
STRONGER WAA PATTERN...WHILE EASTERN CWA MAY HOLD ONTO LOW CLOUDS A             
BIT LONGER.  MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WAA STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE              
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  MEX TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL BASED             
ON MODEL LOW LEVEL TEMP/THICKNESS PROGS AND HAVE GONE QUITE A BIT               
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.                                            
RATHER COMPLICATED UPPER WAVE PATTERN UNFOLDING FOR THE WEEKEND AS              
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CRASH THROUGH UPPER RIDGE.  FIRST SURFACE TROUGH            
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY COLD             
FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS            
MENTION OF -SHSN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THIS FRONT.  LOW LEVEL               
THERMAL PROGS SEEM TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN                   
PORTIONS OF CWA AND ONLY CHANGE WAS TO INSERT RAIN OR SNOW WORDING              
IN THIS AREA.  ALSO A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR -SHSN POSSIBILITY                    
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES IN                  
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR...BUT DO NOT FEEL THIS                    
WARRANTS A MENTION YET.                                                         
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
MOHR/MARSILI                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
ISSUED BY NWS GOODLAND KS                                                       
1105 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2002                                                     
WIND SURGE MOVING THROUGH GOODLAND CWA WITH WINDY CONDITIONS                    
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. FSL RUC II HAS A GREAT HANDLE            
ON THE WINDS AND BRING THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS (WINDY CRITERIA)                  
THROUGH THE WESTERN ZONES SHORTLY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.              
OTHERWISE...CURRENT TEMP FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST                     
GUIDANCE/850 TEMP PROJECTIONS SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.                       
.DDC...NONE.                                                                    
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks