####018002618####
FXPQ60 PGUM 081935
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
535 AM CHST MON FEB 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RADAR SHOWS A THIN BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARD GUAM. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BRING MUCH RAIN WITH
IT HOWEVER. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT SHEAR NORTH
OF SAIPAN HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
FAIRLY ACTIVE TROUGH SOUTH OF GUAM CONTINUE. MARINE CONDITIONS
REMAIN BENIGN AND GUAM FIRE DANGER IS EXTREME FROM LACK OF RAIN.
&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS LIGHTEN TUESDAY AS THE
SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THEN WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS LATER IN WEEK.
&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...GFS IMPLIES WET CONDITIONS OVER POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE MAINTAIN
ITS POSITION SOUTH OF ALL THE ISLANDS AND INTENSE CONVECTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO APPROACH KOSRAE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENCE SETTLING OVER MARSHALL
ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD TO JUST EAST OF KOSRAE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS
DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
HELP BROADEN COVERAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS IN POHNPEI AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND KEPT IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. KEPT KOSRAE FCST THE
SAME EXCEPT TO TWEAK WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HAVE TRIMMED
MAJURO CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY AND INCREASED PRECIP TO
SCATTERED FOR TONIGHT. LATEST WW3 INDICATE SUBSIDING TRADE-WIND
SWELLS AROUND SUNSET. CANCELLATION OF HIGH SURF MAY BE FEASIBLE
DURING THE NEXT SHIFT. NO SIGNIFICANT SWELL EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE...KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. CONVECTION SE OF
YAP HAS SPREAD INTO YAP FCST ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING. NEW LINES OF
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE EAST OF PALAU AS WELL. HAVE
INCLUDED TSTMS OVER YAP AND PALAU TODAY. CLOSE MONITORING OF BOTH
LOCATIONS WILL AID LOCAL OFFICES TO ISSUE PROPER ADVISORIES DUE TO
UNSTABLE AIR-MASS THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST
WILL USHER SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO CHUUK STARTING WEDNESDAY. 
&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MUNDELL/BAQUI

####018006220####
FXUS62 KGSP 081937
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY 
MORNING...BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND PERSIST 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA 
EARLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY NEXT 
WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SFC HI PRES WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE FROM IL TO THE MID 
ATLC TONIGHT...PUSHING A WEAK FNTL BNDRY SWD ACRS VA INTO NC. THERE 
WILL BE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU INTO THIS EVENING THAT SHUD QUICKLY 
DISSIPATE BY ARND MIDNIGHT. LLVL FLOW WILL BECOME NLY LATE...BUT 
THERE WILL BE LITTLE CAA. SO MIN TEMPS SHUD BE MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S 
MTNS...AND LWR TO MID 40S PIEDMONT.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVR THE CWFA MONDAY...WITH LIMITED/SHALLOW MOISTURE 
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A MOS BLEND PUTS TEMPS BACK INTO THE 60S 
EVERYWHERE (50S HIGH ELEVATIONS). ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS TO INCREASE 
DURING THE AFTN...SO CLOUD COVER MAY INCREASE AND THICKEN (ESP ALONG 
SE-FACING SLOPES). HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE 
ENUF LIFT/MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIP THRU THE AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA REMAINS IN PLACE BUT 
FLATTENS AS SHORT WAVES MOVE UP AND OVER IT. THE BULK OF THE SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY REMAINS TO OUR WEST UNTIL WED/WED NITE WHEN SHORT WAVES 
MOVE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE... 
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MON NITE. 
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA TUESDAY BUT 
REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY PULLS NORTH AWAY FROM 
THE AREA TUE NITE. EXPECT PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
NIGHT IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY 
AS DEEP SWLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY BACK TO MID TO UPPER 60S TO 
NEAR 70. BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN TO OUR WEST TUE NITE...BUT 
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE MTNS NEAR THE TN BORDER. 
LOWS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO.

TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT STILL IN QUESTION. HAVE TAKEN A MIDDLE 
OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND HAVE POP INCREASING TO CHC WED AFTERNOON 
WITH HIGHEST POP OVER THE MTNS. CHC POP ALL AREAS WED EVENING THEN 
SLIGHT CHC AFT MIDNIGHT. SHEAR WILL BE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND 
QUITE STRONG AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS. AS USUAL 
THOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. ENSEMBLES SHOW A 
DECENT CHC OF SOME CAPE...SO WILL ADD SLIGHT CHC THUNDER ATTM. 
WHETHER IT IS ENUF FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IS STILL 
QUESTIONABLE. HIGHS WED WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER XCPT ALONG ERN AND 
SRN CWFA BORDER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WED NITE COOL AS 
WELL...BUT ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THU AND THU NIGHT 
WILL BE DRY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA UNDERNEATH 
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AFTER THAT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN THE 
DRAIN...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HOLD WIDELY DISPARATE SOLUTIONS 
REGARDING THE CONTINUATION OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN LATE NEXT 
WEEK. WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIP OVER THE 
AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EXTENDED...BUT WHERE/WHEN/WHAT TYPE OF 
PRECIP IS A COMPLETE MYSTERY AT THIS POINT. NOT ONLY ARE THE MAJOR 
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE TIMING OF 
INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS 
VALLEY...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE 
TWO MODELS REGARDING HOW WARM/COLD THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST 
STATES WILL BE DURING THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT...WE HAVE OPTED TO 
HEDGE OUR BETS WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRI THROUGH 
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPS RUNNING AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. P-TYPE 
WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO RAIN UNTIL THE EXTENDED PICTURE BEGINS 
TO CLEAR UP A LITTLE.     

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MAINLY VFR LVL STRATOCU WILL LINGER ACRS THE NC MTNS THIS 
AFTN...AS SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL BKN VFR LVL STRATOCU DEVELOPS EAST 
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS WINDS 
DIMINISH AND BECOME NWLY/NLY. OVRNGT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WNDS VEER 
TO NLY/NELY AND REMAIN LGT. GUIDANCE INDICATES LLVL MOISTURE WORKS 
INTO THE AREA FM THE NE BY MONDAY MORNING. SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS (ESP ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT) AROUND OR 
AFTER SUNRISE. WNDS WILL CONT TO VEER TO SELY BY MIDDAY.

AT KCLT...SO FAR LEE TROUGH HAS KEPT WINDS SWLY. HOWEVER...AS MIXING 
DEEPENS...WINDS HAVE BEEN BECOMING WLY/WNWLY WITH SOME GUSTS 18-20 
KTS ACRS THE NC FOOTHILLS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHEN THE WINDS 
WILL SHIFT AT THE TERMINAL. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 19Z-20Z. IN ANY 
CASE...THEY WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO NWLY...THEN DECR TO LESS THAN 6 
KTS THIS EVENING. OVRNGT...WNDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY/NELY...AS STRATOCU 
DISSIPATES. GUIDANCE SHOWS LLVL MOISTURE WORKING IN FROM THE NE MON 
MORNING...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR OR MVFR LVL STRATOCU 
DEVELOPMENT ARND OR AFTER SUNRISE. WNDS WILL CONT TO VEER TO SELY BY 
MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...CONSIDERABLE CLDNS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING...W/ 
MAINLY LOW VFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS/DRIZZLE IS 
POSSIBLE MONDAY NGT (ESP ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT TO NC FOOTHILLS 
AND NW PIEDMONT. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE TUESDAY...AS WARM FRONT 
LIFTS N OF AREA. AN INCREASED CHC OF SHWRS AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD 
FRONT WEDNESDAY...THEN CLEARING ON THURSDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK



####018002583####
FXUS64 KOUN 081938
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
138 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN MOST AREAS INTO 
TONIGHT-ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE WINDS HAVE BACKED TO 
SOUTHEAST WITH POSITIVE MOISTURE CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE. THE 
UPPER TROUGH, OVER SOUTHERN AZ AT MID-DAY, WILL BRING STRONG WINDS 
IN THE LOWER LAYERS. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A DRY LINE QUICKLY 
INTO THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL 
SEE SHOWERS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND PROBABLY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN 
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. QUICKLY BEHIND THE DRY LINE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED 
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PART OF OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONALLY, FIRE 
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON 
APPROACHES. CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 
SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO MEET CRITERIA FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. THIS 
DRIER AIRMASS WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, BUT BY 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY 
NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WOULD BE IN 
RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL BRING HIGH VERTICAL 
SHEAR. THE ACCOMPANYING VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL 
RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS, MORE THAN A 
FEW SEVERE ARE PROBABLE LATE TUESDAY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA. BY FRIDAY THE GFS CONTINUES TO GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER 
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH A COLD CORE UPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS A CHANCE 
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. 
THE WINDOW FOR THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT AS THE FAST 
AND OPEN UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL 
RETURN MORE TO SEASONABLE NORMALS BY MID-WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  70  43  72 /  80  40  10  30 
HOBART OK         52  71  42  71 /  80  20   0  10 
WICHITA FALLS TX  55  74  46  75 /  80  30  10  30 
GAGE OK           48  66  36  68 /  80  10   0   0 
PONCA CITY OK     52  69  45  71 /  70  60  10  20 
DURANT OK         58  69  53  71 /  60  70  10  60 

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR OKZ004>029-
     033>038-044.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$

30/09