AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
840 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT              
WEEK...                                                                         
OVERNIGHT...LATEST SURFACE METARS AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW THAT THE                
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL                 
CONTINUE TO PULL LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA UNTIL WINDS ACQUIRE MORE              
OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT. LATEST RUC AND WRF_NMM8 SHORT RANGE MODELS            
INDICATING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE            
NORTH SHOULD START FILTERING INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATED WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO              
19 KNOTS AND 2 TO 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20 MILES AND 8 FOOT SEAS AT                
BUOY 010. AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...              
NEARSHORE SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FEET OR LESS WHILE THE OFFSHORE SEAS              
SHOULD LEVEL OUT IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH BUOY              
TRENDS BEFORE UPDATING TO LOWER THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE 20             
TO 60 MILE MARINE ZONE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS AND            
REMOVE HEADLINES FROM THE NEARSHORE MARINE ZONE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND GENERAL                
AVIATION ROUTES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUSH             
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS WINDS VEER TO            
THE NORTHWEST.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...IT WILL BE DRY BUT COOL THIS             
WEEKEND WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH. MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL             
BELOW 40% ESP OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE                 
WEATHER WATCHES AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE              
WILL SEE 4 HOURS OR MORE OF CRITICAL RH.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM                
UNTIL 03Z/10PM EST.                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WIMMER                                                             
LONG TERM....GLITTO                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1021 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP HAS INCREASED THIS              
EVENING. DID A LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING OF                 
ENDING OF PRECIP, BUT ALSO MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN                 
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH WINDS ALONG LAKESHORE AND AT THE BUOY            
STILL NEAR GALE FORCE AT 02Z, EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR                     
NEARSHORE ZONES TO 08Z AND ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRI EVE AS WAVES WILL             
TAKE AWHILE TO COME DOWN.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                              
LOW OVER SE ONTARIO PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA. PRECIP IN THE                   
DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW TO THE SE WAS MOVG                 
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN IN            
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE AT FWA IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH            
THE EVENING. WK CAA, MELTING OF FALLING SNOW, AND DIURNAL COOLING               
COMBINING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MI AND NRN                
INDIANA THIS EVE. FWA APPARENTLY STILL SOUTH OF THE RN/SN LINE ATTM             
BUT IT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING SO MENTIONED SNOW IN THE             
TAF. WK SFC HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO INDIANA TOMORROW. STLT AND               
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS EXTEND UPSTREAM TO THE RIDGE AXIS.                   
DECREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION                 
AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS FROM CLEARING NRN INDIANA               
THIS TAF PD. WILL BE UPDATING ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT A               
LITTLE EARLIER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP INTENSITY FAIRLY                     
LIGHT AT THIS POINT THUS EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING                
THROUGH THE SNOWFALL, SO JUST A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FCST.                 
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN                
OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS               
FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION             
OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE            
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER               
EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH             
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.            
EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE              
OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY            
PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE             
ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS                 
EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO            
SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO               
LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY             
MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN            
LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY              
DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY                
FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE              
IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED             
WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL             
DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS               
WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND            
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.             
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER               
LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO                
KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD            
DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG                
SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR               
160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS              
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE              
CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAL                                                                
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...DJT                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
621 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
LOW OVER SE ONTARIO PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA. PRECIP IN THE                   
DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW TO THE SE WAS MOVG                 
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS EVE. PRECIP SHOULD END AT SBN IN            
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE AT FWA IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH            
THE EVENING. WK CAA, MELTING OF FALLING SNOW, AND DIURNAL COOLING               
COMBINING TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SRN MI AND NRN                
INDIANA THIS EVE. FWA APPARENTLY STILL SOUTH OF THE RN/SN LINE ATTM             
BUT IT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THIS EVENING SO MENTIONED SNOW IN THE             
TAF. WK SFC HIGH/RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO INDIANA TOMORROW. STLT AND               
SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS EXTEND UPSTREAM TO THE RIDGE AXIS.                   
DECREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION                 
AROUND 2KFT EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS FROM CLEARING NRN INDIANA               
THIS TAF PD. WILL BE UPDATING ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR TO REFLECT A               
LITTLE EARLIER CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. PRECIP INTENSITY FAIRLY                     
LIGHT AT THIS POINT THUS EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING                
THROUGH THE SNOWFALL, SO JUST A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION FCST.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN                
OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS               
FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION             
OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE            
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER               
EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH             
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.            
EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE              
OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY            
PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE             
ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS                 
EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO            
SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO               
LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY             
MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN            
LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY              
DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY                
FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE              
IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED             
WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL             
DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS               
WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND            
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.             
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER               
LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO                
KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD            
DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG                
SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR               
160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS              
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE              
CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE             
FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA                
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME                 
BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR               
RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN                 
DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA             
AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC               
FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE                   
FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD                      
AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO              
WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD             
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAL                                                                
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
AVIATION/UPDATE...DJT                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
321 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN                
OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS               
FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION             
OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE            
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER               
EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH             
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.            
EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE              
OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY            
PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE             
ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS                 
EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO            
SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO               
LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY             
MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN            
LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY              
DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY                
FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE              
IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED             
WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL             
DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS               
WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND            
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.             
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER               
LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO                
KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD            
DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG                
SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR               
160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS              
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE              
CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE             
FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA                
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME                 
BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR               
RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN                 
DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA             
AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC               
FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE                   
FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD                      
AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO              
WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD             
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL                                                       
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1240 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
KIWX RADAR INDICATING AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SBN WHILE             
FWA JUST ON EASTERN EDGE ATTM. SFC LOW TRACKING EAST OF THE AREA                
MOVING INTO CENTRAL OHIO CAUSING WINDS TO DIMINISH FOR THE TIME                 
BEING IN FWA VICINITY...RESULTING IN VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR               
RANGE. THIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN                 
DEFORMATION AXIS AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLIDES EAST INTO FWA AREA             
AND LOW PULLING AWAY WILL BRING WINDS BACK UP AS WELL. LATEST RUC               
FCST KEEPS MID LEVEL FORCING OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE                   
FINALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. DESPITE NICE N/NW FETCH DOWN LAKE                    
MICHIGAN...LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...2KFT...AND LACK OF COLD                      
AIR...DELTA T ONLY 10C...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO              
WILL CUT OFF PRECIP BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT SBN. REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD             
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MORNING.                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                               
VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING WITH CLASSIC                   
WRAPPED UP COMMA INDICATIVE OF A MATURE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE. OF                
PARTICULAR NOTE IS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TROWAL AIRSTREAM NOTED ON               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE INTO             
SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS CORRESPONDS TO REGION OF RAPIDLY COOLING                 
CLOUD TOPS...BURGEONING HEAVY RAIN SHIELD...AND COHERENT CLUSTER OF             
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS INSTABILITY IS RELEASED THROUGH UPRIGHT                    
CONVECTION. TROWAL SIGNATURE HAS BEEN APPARENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL             
DAYS IN MODEL DATA...AND STORM CONTINUES TO BEHAVE AS EXPECTED. GFS             
AGAIN THE PREFERRED SOLUTION GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR CONTINUITY AND                  
HANDLING OF SYNOPTIC FIELDS COMPARED TO THE NAM-WRF. STRONG                     
SUGGESTIONS IN GFS TOTAL DEFORMATION...FGEN...AND H85-H5 QN VECTOR              
FIELDS OF DEVELOPING TROWAL EVOLVING/FEEDING AN INTENSE DEFORMATION             
ZONE TODAY. GIVEN TRACK OF MID LEVEL LOW CENTER...MOST LIKELY PIVOT             
POINT FOR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTH OF OUR              
LATITUDE EXPECT DEFORMATION AXIS TO PIVOT ACROSS THE CWA AND EXIT               
THE NE ZONES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                
WILL SPIKE THE GRIDS WITH 100 POPS EVERYWHERE TODAY. GIVEN UPSTREAM             
CONVECTION WILL INCLUDE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN MENTION EVERYWHERE THIS             
MORNING...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WESTERN ZONES WHERE DEFORMATION             
ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. QPF GRIDS SHIFTED STRONGLY HIGHER WITH              
ONE INCH OVER THE WEST AND A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS IN THE EAST                 
BEFORE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL                 
INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR THE EVENING MOST ZONES FOR EXPECTED            
PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS...EXCEPT IN THE FAR W/SW ZONES. POPS                  
TAPERED BACK TO CHANCE...DRY SW...AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DEFORMATION                 
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN WITH DEPARTURE OF MID LEVEL LOW.                            
PRECIP TYPE ALSO BECOMES A CONCERN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GFS HAS             
INITIALIZED UPSTREAM AIRMASS A LITTLE TOO WARM FROM KAPX TO KGRB TO             
KDVN. EXPECT THIS COOLER AIR TO BE DRAWN INTO DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR             
THE END OF THE EVENT AS LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS BACK. GFS POINT                     
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL THIS AFTERNOON...             
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FULL MELTING. AM                    
CONCERNED THAT IF DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES AS INTENSE AS ADVERTISED             
IN MODEL DATA...0C LEVEL MAY BE SUPPRESSED LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW WET              
SNOW TO MIX IN BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE               
CWA. FOR COLLAB PURPOSES HAVE LEFT PRECIP ALL RAIN THROUGH THE                  
DAY...THEN INTRODUCED A POSSIBLE MIX WITH WET SNOW THIS EVENING AS              
COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL. VERY WET GROUND AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS              
WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY ACCUM...ALTHOUGH IF PRECIP DOES GO TO ALL               
WET SNOW FOR A TIME IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS A SLUSHY COATING IS                 
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FEW CHANGES IN EXTENDED FORECAST. SLOWED              
CLEARING A BIT ON FRIDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH DEPARTING LOW LEVEL                
THERMAL TROF...1000-900MB MOISTURE MAY REMAIN BEFORE SUBSIDENCE                 
INVERSION BREAKS/THINS SC DECK. 5H LOW PUSHES NORTH TO NEAR JAMES               
BAY FRIDAY EVENING AND FILLS. MEANWHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW             
OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISHES GREAT LAKES TROF                   
SAT/SUN. FAVOR GFS/ECMWF OVER WARMER NAM GIVEN DEEP CONFLUENT NWRLY             
FLOW TO PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AND M15C AIR AT 8H POISED OVER NRN B.C.            
BEST LES SETUP...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL THERMAL INSTABILITY WITH                  
LAKE/8H DIFFERENTIALS ONLY TOUCHING INTO THE MID TEENS DURING THE               
DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUED CHC POPS SAT NIGHT AND A BIT HIR SUNDAY.               
COLD POOL QUICKLY DIVES SOUTHEAST...FAVORING COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS               
BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. LES POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY WANE AS                   
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS BAJA            
TO LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES                   
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE BUT WASHES OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT              
RIDGE. INCREASED LOW LEVEL WAA AND WITH MOISTURE INFLUX SUPPRESSING             
CLOUD COVER...LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE OSCILLATION FAVORED AND                
HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MON-WED. GUIDANCE ALSO                      
SUPPORTING OF WARMER TREND AS LATEST MEX TEMPS EDGE TOWARD YDAYS                
HIGH END ENSEMBLE MAX.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...JAL/HITCHCOCK                                             
LONG TERM...MURPHY                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
705 PM MST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED FIRST PERIOD TO REFLECT A BIT STRONGER                   
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS HOURLY TEMP/DP/WIND PARAMETERS.           
AT 02Z WINDS IN YUMA AND AKRON COLORADO GUSTING INTO THE 30-40KT                
RANGE. 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE NAM SHOWED 40+ 800 WINDS IN THIS               
AREA. THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS THIS POCKET OF ENHANCED                   
WINDS MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. SOME POSSIBLE REASONING               
BEHIND THE WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO SOME               
VIRGA TRYING TO REACH THE SURFACE PER LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN                
THE DRY LOW LEVELS DONT THINK IT WILL REACH BUT THE HIGHER WINDS                
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND.                          
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO WILL NOT BE FOLLOWING THE              
DIURNAL TREND GIVEN THE GOOD MIXING AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN                     
CLOUDINESS. HAVE ADJUSTED THEM USING THE 00Z RUC MODEL WHICH HAS A              
GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT PARAMETERS.                                              
NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIIPATED AT THIS TIME.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1025 AM MST THU NOV 16 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH                  
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS               
THAT LLVL MOISTURE IS MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF               
THE CWA AND AS A RESULT INCREASED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 20S. SFC               
TROUGH IS ON TRACK TO SWING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON SO                    
ADJUSTED WINDS TO REFLECT ITS PASSAGE...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY                   
VEERING TO THE WEST. INCREASING CI CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CWA               
AND GIVEN THIS TREND...ADJUSTED SKY COVERAGE UPWARD. ADJUSTED HIGH              
TEMPS TODAY DOWNWARD A DEGREE OR TWO BASED ON THE INCREASING SKY                
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST WAS LEFT AS IS. UPDATED               
ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT. -CLK                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 229 AM MST THU NOV 16 2006)                         
DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL MAX TEMPERATURES INTO THE                   
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND                   
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATELLITE SH0WING THE FLOW IS             
BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. HIGH OVER            
LOW BLOCK IN CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. VERY BROAD AND               
STRONG UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. FAST FLOW IS            
STILL OCCURRING UNDERNEATH THIS LOW. UNORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS            
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. IMPRESSIVE             
HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 100 METERS OR ABOVE ARE IN THIS AREA IS STARTING           
TO BREAK DOWN WESTERN RIDGE. POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE GULF COAST               
APPEARS TO BE BOTTOMING OUT AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.                    
AT JET LEVEL...THE MODELS WERE CLOSE. THEY LOOKED TO BE UNDERDOING              
JET PUNCHING TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WOULD HAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT              
ADVANTAGE TO THE NAM AT THIS TIME. AT MID LEVELS...GOING BY THE                 
HEIGHT ANALYSIS THE MODELS DID NOT SHOW ANY SERIOUS INITIALIZATION              
PROBLEMS. THE MOST GLARING AREA WAS WITH THE GULF COAST UPPER LOW               
WHICH WAS NOT DEEP ENOUGH AND TOO FAR TO THE EAST. THE NAM WAS DOING            
THE BEST WITH THIS FEATURE. THE NAM AND RUC LOOKED TO BE HANDLING THE           
DETAILS OF THE UNORGANIZED TROUGH A LITTLE BETTER. THE GFS LOOKED               
LIKE IT WAS HANDLING THE BROAD UPPER LOW THE BEST. THE MODELS LOOKED            
A LITTLE WET UPSTREAM.                                                          
AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/RUC13 ARE HANDLING THE SURFACE PATTERN/WINDS            
THE BEST. MODELS ARE ALSO CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES. NOT TOO MANY MAJOR             
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE FLOW               
PATTERN...BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH HEIGHTS                
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. LIKE THE UKMET/GFS/ECMWF               
HANDLING OF GULF COAST LOW BASED ON CURRENT PATTERN AND JET                     
FORECASTS. WILL BE GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS                    
PACKAGE.                                                                        
TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL BE HAVING DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN                 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LESS FAVORABLE WINDS OVER THE                 
EAST. TO COMPLICATE THINGS IS TRYING TO GUESS HOW THICK THE HIGHER              
LEVEL CLOUD COVER GETS. THICK CLOUD COVER NOT TOO FAR AWAY RIGHT NOW            
WHICH MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS. THE CLOUD COVER HAS SHOWN A                    
TENDENCY TO THIN AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. STILL HAVE ENOUGH               
NORTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING OVER AREA UNTIL THIS AFTENOON TO KEEP                
CLOUDS FROM THICKENING UP TOO QUICKLY. ALSO THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT             
OF JET PUSHES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLORADO UNTIL LATE IN THE              
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS.             
WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE               
WEST.                                                                           
THE JET PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. POINT                   
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY AT LOW LEVELS. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE THE                    
FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME.                                                     
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...STRENGTH OF JET INCREASES DURING THE DAY.                 
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITION. THE GFS HAS THE JET             
SEGMENT FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LEFT FRONT               
QUADRANT OVER THE AREA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO SAG IT SOUTH DURING THE            
NIGHT AND PUTS THE AREA IN SUBSIDENCE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE              
GFS SAGS IT SOUTH BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH MAYBE SOME WEAK LIFT                     
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE UKMET HAS THE JET FURTHER NORTH AND MORE                
UNFAVORABLE. LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT.             
MODELS MOISTEN UP THE SOUNDINGS WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.               
BECAUSE BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE TOO MOIST AND UNCERTAINTY BASED ON               
SUBTLE MODEL DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL                 
CHANGE ORIENTATION OF SILENT POPS.                                              
FOR MAXES...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY                 
BEHIND TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL HAVE           
A COOLER AIR MASS AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES              
THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER AND TO FORECAST SO             
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH.                                                           
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA IN THE LEFT REAR             
QUADRANT OF THE JET DURING THE DAY WITH THE NAM AND GFS THE MOST                
DEFINITE WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SHOVE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN SOUNDINGS             
UP A GREAT DEAL DURING THE DAY. NOT SURE ABOUT THIS WITH WESTERLY               
FLOW ALOFT. ALSO LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH             
THE LIFT THAN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. THETA-E LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE               
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME RESPONSE TO THE LIFT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE               
DRIER LOWER LEVELS WILL NEED SOME TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS.            
BUT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY AND THE JET IS                   
UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE DRY AND LET THE             
DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT. IF SOMETHING DOES HAPPEN...IT                
WILL BE LIGHT. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE END OF THE DAY SO                
LOWERED THE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH UPSLOPE WINDS              
AND CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE COOLER GUIDANCE THE BEST.                            
AT THIS TIME...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD.               
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
1111 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                     
.MESOSCALE...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING PLACES A STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS            
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. A PRONOUNCED DRY                
SLOT IS PENETRATING WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FROM THE               
WEST. 13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 993MB OCCLUDED CYCLONE IN               
SOUTHERN INDIANA...WITH THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT CUTTING THROUGH                 
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. A                
WARM FRONT IS PUNCHING NORTH INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...STALLING IN THE            
VICINITY OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.                               
RUC MODEL INDICATES TONGUE OF RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS                 
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE (INCREASING FROM 12Z RAOB VALUES              
OF 1.3" TO 1.7"). MEANWHILE...DRY SLOT ALOFT IS OVERRUNNING RICH                
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INSTABILITY AND                 
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT STRENGTH. GIVEN RICH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES               
AND DEWPOINTS JUST BEHIND THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...CURRENT THINKING            
IS STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEST OF               
CURRENT PRECIPITATION. ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TO             
NORTH LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.                                    
SHEAR INDICES ARE QUITE HIGH TODAY. WIND PROFILES OBSERVED ON KLWX              
WIND PROFILE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AT 1KFT...INCREASING             
TO 60 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AT 3KFT. 06Z GFS BUFKIT FORECAST                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-1 HELICITY GREATER THAN 200 M2/S2 AND 0-1KFT               
SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL                    
VIRGINIA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.                                           
GIVEN ABOVE...THINKING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE TORNADOES            
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR             
IN VICINITY OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE                
WATER VALUES MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.                              
GFS IS PREFERRED MODEL AT THIS TIME GIVEN RECENT ISSUES WITH THE NAM            
(OVER-DEEPENING TROUGHS IS SLOWING DOWN TIMING OF COLD FRONT).                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...                                                          
HAVE MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.                                                    
HEADLINES: HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONES TO ADD THE COASTAL FLOOD              
WARNING HEADLINE. WILL ALSO ADD THE TORNADO WATCH.                              
TEMPERATURES: HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE              
RIDGE TODAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ALREADY RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 60S             
OVER THE PIEDMONT AREAS OF VIRGINA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.                 
LOWER 70S ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY. DEWPOINTS ARE                
ALSO RUNNING HIGH TODAY...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN                      
CWFA...AND MIDDLE 60S OVER THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.            
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE NOTED OVER THE NC/VA BORDER...AND                
ONLY EXPECT THESE VALUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.                    
POPS: OVERALL THE WORDING IN THE ZONES WILL NOT BE CHANGED FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.                          
HOWEVER...HAVE EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE             
CWFA FOR THIS EVENING.                                                          
WINDS: HAVE INCREASED THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ENTIRE                 
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM               
WILL ONLY SERVE TO FURTHER TIGHTEN THE SURFACE GRADIENT. MOST PLACES            
SHOULD READ SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT OVER                
LAND.                                                                           
QPF: CONTINUED THINKING IS WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF                        
RAINFALL. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS                  
TRAIN. THE METRO AREAS OF WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE HAVE THE                  
LOWEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR TODAY...AROUND THE 1.6 INCH MARK FOR            
6 HOURS. THERE WILL BE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ON               
ROADWAYS. FALLEN LEAVES MAY ALSO CLOG STORM DRAINS.                             
SKY: CLOUDY. A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY              
SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CIGS ARE MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...HOWEVER IAD HAS A LIFR CIG AND              
VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO AVERAGE MVFR AND BE REDUCED TO               
LIFR IN THE HEAVY RAIN. VSBYS ALSO SHOULD AVERAGE MVFR...WITH LIFR              
IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL AT THE OTHER AIRPORTS. EVEN THOUGH REGIONAL               
RADAR IS SHOWING A BACK EDGE OF PRECIP...EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT THIS             
AFTERNOON UNDER THE DRY SLOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTS WILL ALSO BE             
A PROBLEM...WITH 35 KT LIKELY.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
HAVE RAISED A GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENT                        
OBSERVATIONS ON THE BAY ARE RUNNING AROUND 20 KT SUSTAINED...WITH 15            
KT SUSTAINED ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC. ONLY AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED                
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING. ALREADY HAVE                  
OBSERVED SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 KT RANGE OVER LAND (NOT PRECIP                    
RELATED). HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INSERTED 40 KT GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL             
WATERS. WILL ALSO ADD THE TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE.                               
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DCZ001.                   
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ007-011-               
     014-016>018.                                                               
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ054.                   
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST               
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>537.                                                     
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530>537.                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MESOSCALE...SJR                                                                 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...LISTEMAA                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
310 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF BTWN RDG             
OFF THE E COAST AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE W IMPACTING THE CNTRL              
CONUS. TWO SHRTWV OF NOTE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROF. THE FIRST AND              
MOST SGNFT IS LIFTING NEWD THRU THE OH VALLEY AND ON TRACK TO MOVE              
TO SE ONTARIO. N EDGE OF DEFORMATION BAND CLD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS              
FEATURE HAS MOVED INTO NCNTRL LWR MI. HOWEVER...THIS BAND OF                    
ENHANCED CLD IS HAVING TROUBLE MOVING INTO VERY DRY STABLE MID TROP             
OVER THE UPR GRT LKS DEPICTED ON 12Z GRB RAOB/LOCAL TAMDAR SDNGS.               
WEAKER SHRTWV NOTED MOVING E THRU ONTARIO N OF LK SUP. THIS SHRTWV              
HAS NOT HAD AS MUCH SIGNIFICANCE AS THE SYS TO THE S BECAUSE OF DRY             
MID LVLS IN PLACE THIS FAR N. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXED               
PCPN NOTED OVER MAINLY THE WRN CWA IN AN AREA WHERE GFS SHOWS A BIT             
HIER INVRN BASE NEAR H85 AND WITHIN AXIS OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY              
BLO THIS INVRN. TEMPS WITHIN MOIST LYR WELL ABV -10C...SO PCPN HAS              
BEEN ON THE LGT SIDE...A MIX OF -SN/-DZ/-PL PER SFC OBS/SPOTTER                 
REPORTS. OTRW...WDSPRD LO CLD NOTED ACRS THE UPR GRT LKS AS TAMDAR              
SDNGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO INVRN BASE CLOSER TO            
H9 AT MOST SITES. FARTHER W...ANOTHER SHRTWV NOTED MOVING THRU MT...            
WITH HI CLD TO ITS E DRIFTING INTO WRN MN. ANOTHER STRONG JET MAX               
EMBEDDED WITHIN ZONAL FLOW DRIVING OFF THE PACIFIC INTO THE WRN                 
CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...                                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHCS/CLD TRENDS/TEMPS.                              
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC LO IN THE OH VALLEY            
MOVING INTO SE ONTARIO BY 00Z AND INTO WRN QUEBEC IN THE 06Z-12Z                
TIMEFRAME...FAR ENUF E TO KEEP MAIN PCPN SHIELD TO THE E OF THE                 
ENTIRE FA. IN FACT...FA FCST TO BE UNDER THE DOMINATION OF DNVA/DEEP            
LYR H85-3 QVECTOR DVGC IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV TRACKING THRU ONTARIO.             
MAINTENANCE OF LO INVRN HGT AND GFS FCST OF HIER SPECIFIC HUMIDITY              
WRAPPING INTO THE CWA SUPPORTS CONTINUED LO CLD OVC. SINCE LGT PCPN             
WAS OBSVD TDAY...CONSIDERED MENTION OF PTCHY -DZ TNGT IN THESE                  
UPSLOPE AREAS. HOWEVER...CURRENT DWPT DEPRESSIONS/FCST GFS SDNGS                
SHOWING A SHALLOW INVERTED V LOOK TO LLVL T/TD PROFILES SUG NR SFC              
AIR WL BE DRY ENUF TO AVOID MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN. WL MENTION                 
PTCHY MIXED PCPN THIS EVNG OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE W AND THEN              
OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCNTRL LATER TNGT WHEN GFS SHOWS                   
SOMEWHAT HIER MIXING RATIO IN THE SUB INVRN LYR WRAPPING INTO THIS              
AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME CLRG OF LO CLD OVER THE FAR W LATE AS GFS               
FCST SDNGS SHOW SOME DRYING BLO SHALLOW INVRN AND NAM HINTS AT                  
ARRIVAL OF MORE ACYC FLOW... BUT ARRIVAL OF HI CLD IN ADVANCE OF                
SHRTWV NOW IN MT WARRANTS MOCLDY WORDING. OTRW...TENDED TOWARD THE              
HIER END OF MOS GUIDANCE OVER ALL BUT THE INTERIOR W WITH STEADY N              
WIND OFF LK SUP. POTENTIAL FOR CLRG/LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE SHELTERED            
INTERIOR W SUPPORTS LWR TEMPS FCST THERE. GOING FCST LO TEMPS SEEM              
ON TRACK.                                                                       
EXPECT SC TO ERODE W-E TMRW PER GFS FCST SDNGS AS CNDN LO PRES PULLS            
TO THE NE AND SHRTWV RDG IN ADVANCE OF INCOMING MT SHRTWV/MORE ACYC             
LLVL FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT CLRG WL BE SLOW AS             
SC OBSVD TO THE W OF RDG AXIS THIS AFTN OVER MN. SC WL PROBABLY                 
NEVER EXIT OVER THE KEWEENAW AND E OF MQT...WHICH WL REMAIN                     
DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN EVOLVING WNW FLOW. EVEN WHERE LO CLD DOES               
BREAK...LOOK FOR INCRSG MID/HI CLD AS GFS SHOWS INCRSG ISENTROPIC               
LIFT/MOISTENING ON THE 290K-300K SFCS (H65-75) IN THE AFTN IN                   
ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHRTWV. HOWEVER...THE H85-75 LYR WL REMAIN TOO              
DRY FOR ANY PCPN PER OBSVD 12Z BIS SDNG. MIXING TO INVRN BASE ARND              
H9-875 YIELDS HI TEMPS 35-42.                                                   
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRI NGT THRU NEXT THU)...                                           
PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE PRIMARY CONCERN.                                  
FRI NIGHT INTO SUN...PV ANAMOLY/SHORTWAVE/UPR JET CURRENTLY OVR                 
PAC NW TRACKS INTO N PLAINS BY FRI AM. PORTION OF THE WAVE DROPS SE             
INTO OHIO VALLEY BY FRI NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER PORTION MOVES INTO UPR              
MI. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PRESENT ON 280-285K SFC (950-800MB) FRI             
NIGHT BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOUNDINGS INITIALLY ARE DRY IN THE                 
H85-H75 LAYER. THIS DRY LAYER BEGINS TO ERODE THROUGH 06Z OVR W                 
CWA...SO MAY START TO SEE SOME AREAS OF LGT SNOW BREAK OUT.                     
SHORTWAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE SLOWLY THEN SLIDES ACROSS UPR MI THROUGH              
SAT. EXTENT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT AND MARGINAL LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL            
LEAD TO MINIMAL SNOW AMOUNTS. THERMAL TROFFING AT H85 DROPS INTO UPR            
LAKES LATE SATURDAY. GFS H85 TEMPS OF -8C TO -10C ARE MUCH COOLER               
THAN OTHER MODELS AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLES. H85 TEMPS AROUND -7C (PER              
NAM/ECMWF/UKMET) AND WATER TEMPS +6C WILL YIELD LK EFFECT SNOW                  
SHOWERS INTO SAT NIGHT. MAYBE A PERIOD OF STRONGER LK EFFECT SAT                
NIGHT AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE PLUME SETTLES OVER UPR                
LAKES. QPF PRETTY MINIMAL EVEN WITH AGRESSIVE GFS SO EXPECT ONLY A              
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW. LK EFFECT STRETCHES INTO SUN BUT BUILDING                
HEIGHTS...INVERSION LOWERING BLO H9...TEMPS RISING TO -3C AT TOP OF             
INVERSION SHOULD ALL HELP LK EFFECT PCPN DIMINISH/END IN THE AFTN.              
00Z/06Z GUIDANCE INDICATED CLEAR SAILING INTO MON NIGHT WITH JUST AN            
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED. 12Z GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE              
AMPLIFIED IDEA WITH IMPULSE DIGGING INTO MEAN EAST COAST TROF WITH              
SOME H9-H8 FRONTOGENESIS AND MOISTURE SPREADING INTO EAST CWA 09Z MON           
THROUGH 15Z MON. 12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN NOT AS FAR WEST WITH FEATURE...             
SHOWING IT DROPPING TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z MON.                      
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME UPR LEVEL RIDGING FM LWR             
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND IN BTWN UPR TROF OVR HUDSON BAY AND OVR            
SE CONUS. SO...NOT SURE IF THE SHORTWAVE WILL DIG MORE S THAN E AS              
GFS SHOWS. LEFT IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WITH MEAN RIDGE AXIS STILL TO              
THE WEST...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.                                       
TUE INTO THU...GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BTWN                 
OPERATIONAL MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH 00Z/06Z/12Z             
GFS TOO. OVERALL...AN AREA OF WELL BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE           
OVR EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WHILE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS             
SET UP OVR MUCH OF PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES. SPREAD BTWN MODEL                   
MEMBERS IS MINIMAL SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGH. A             
WEAK TROUGH COMES THROUGH ON TUE...BUT UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PCPN               
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN OVR NORTHERN ONTARIO. 12Z GFS TRENDED AWAY            
FM PREV SOLNS OF DIPPING HEIGHTS OVR UPR LAKES FOR TUE AND BRINGING             
QPF ACROSS CWA. 12Z CANADIAN/ECMWF ALSO SUPPORT MAIN UPR SUPPORT                
STAYING WELL TO THE NORTH SO HAVE WENT WITH DRY WX. UPR RIDGE                   
CONTINUES TO AFFECT REGION INTO THANKSGIVING. H85 TEMPS RISE TO NEAR            
+5C BY THU AFTN...BUT MIXING TO H85 WILL BE TOUGH. EVEN SO...TEMPS              
AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED THU.                              
JLA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
621 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL              
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT            
LAKES TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS            
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND MUCH OF INDIANA AND NORTHERN OHIO. THERE              
ARE SOME HIGHER CEILINGS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. BOTH              
NAM12 AND RUC HOWEVER KEEP THIS AREA OF DRYER LOW LEVEL AIR                     
SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT AND ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WHICH             
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN                 
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS 25 KNOTS OR GREATER AROUND MBS. THE                
DETROIT AREA SHOULD SEE LOWER WIND SPEEDS DUE TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT            
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOW TRACK.                                        
MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN AFFECTING SE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITHIN            
THE BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AN               
AREA OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL                       
IN/SOUTHERN OH IS ASSOCIATED WITH DRYER MID LEVEL AIR IN ADVANCE OF             
THE UPPER LOW. THESE REGION OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS            
SOUTHERN MI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER                    
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL RESIDE AROUND THE DETROIT AREA...SO WILL KEEP            
A MENTION OF THUNDER AT DTW AND DET. CHANCES OF THUNDER LOOK MUCH               
LESS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 344 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
A VERY DEEP UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WESTERN                        
TENNESSEE...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 990MB OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS                   
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS                 
ONGOING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AREA            
RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE               
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THIS REGION OF LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION.                
ALSO NOTED ON THE SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IS A WELL DEFINED                  
REGION OF MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER            
OHIO VALLEYS.                                                                   
AS FAR AS MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...THE NAM AND UKMET WERE A LITTLE               
TOO WEAK WITH THE UPPER LOW...WHILE THE GFS INITIALIZATION WAS                  
SUPERIOR. PREFERENCE THUS CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE GFS                         
SOLUTION...WHICH HAS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SFC LOW. THE UPPER LOW IS                
FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING...THEN TO THE EAST OF                
LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT. PER GFS...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS             
JUST EAST OF DETROIT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO JAMES BAY OVERNIGHT.            
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CREATE               
RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SUPPORT             
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY AND THUMB. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST WITH LOW LEVEL THETA             
E ADVECTION TODAY. 850MB DEWPOINTS ARE ACTUALLY FORECAST TO RISE TO             
+4 TO +6C OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MID                 
LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL ALSO INCREASE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER              
LOW. THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL DEFORMATION IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM             
WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI...JUST CLIPPING THE                   
SAGINAW VALLEY. AREA RADAR DATA IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO CONFIRM THIS            
AS SOME BANDED STRUCTURE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY.               
THIS REGION SHOULD SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN TODAY...WITH MODEL              
QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN THE DEFORMATION REGION.                             
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH TODAY...ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DRYING AND            
COOLING ALOFT WILL BOOST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS IS SHOWN IN BOTH            
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MID LEVEL             
DRYING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUS THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER CHANCE OF                  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT A LIGHTNING                
STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF                
THIS DRY MID LEVEL AIR. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO              
BE AROUND AN INCH AND K INDICES NEAR 30...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION               
OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                   
THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL WRAP BACK INTO SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT               
AND WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO ONTARIO. THE GFS WAS THE ONLY            
MODEL THAT HANDLED THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN               
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES PER 00Z RAOBS...THE OTHER MODELS WERE TOO               
WARM. THE GFS SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4 TO -5 C OVERNIGHT.               
GFS SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW FREEZING LEVELS OVER 1500FT THROUGH 06Z.             
SO WILL CARRY JUST A MIX WITH SNOW AFTER 06Z AND KEEP ACCUMULATIONS             
MINIMAL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED HOWEVER AS COOLING DUE TO                 
MELTING MAY COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE QUICKLY IN THE SAGINAW                 
VALLEY.                                                                         
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                             
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS RATHER ACTIVE AS WE TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY             
TO A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM BEFORE INCREASING                      
AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A RATHER INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER ALBERTA               
WITH AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET OF NEAR 150KTS PER SATELLITE               
DERIVED DATA JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  IT WILL BE A                
PIECE OF THIS ENERGY THAT DIVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE GREAT               
LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR (AND SNOW                    
SHOWERS...PERHAPS LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE LAKE HURON ADJACENT                  
COUNTIES).  THEN A RATHER NICE REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT            
FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND              
EAST COAST TROUGH... TRANSITIONING TOWARD A CUT OFF LOW OFF THE                 
SOUTHEAST COAST... AS IT DETACHES FROM THE MAIN FLOW.                           
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEPARTING TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY WITH                 
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...MAINLY            
IN THE MORNING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL             
FALL AS SNOW YET NEAR SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.  SO A                
TOUGH CALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL FORECAST LESS THAN 1 INCH FOR            
THE TRI CITIES AND THUMB.  AS DAYTIME HEATING UNFOLDS...ANY RESIDUAL            
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FALL AS A MIX BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES            
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF PRECIP              
FOR THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND DECREASES POPS                    
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                            
A RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE...IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WAVE...CROSSES              
OVER THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP MOISTEN THE MID AND                 
UPPER LEVELS BUT REMAIN RATHER DRY BELOW. HOWEVER...IF SOME                     
STRATUS DOES LINGER AROUND...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME CLOUD SEEDING               
FROM ABOVE TO BRING ABOUT SOME FLURRIES AND THIS IS WELL COVERED                
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                                                        
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING                  
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW               
700MB WITH -5C TO -10C  850MB TEMPS ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE.                      
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS ARE BELOW 0C WITH TOP OF THE MOIST COLUMN                
NEAR -15C FOR GOOD ICE NUCLEATION.  CROSS SECTION HOWEVER SHOW                  
LITTLE LIFT WITHIN THE MOISTURE YET WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...ENOUGH                 
CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS LAKE MICHIGAN CONTRIBUTION COULD BE ENOUGH              
FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.  WILL RETAIN THE CHANCE POPS AT THIS             
TIME.                                                                           
BULK OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM             
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE                   
STAGE FOR BOUNDARY FLOW TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY                   
NIGHT. LAKE HURON COULD BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AND WILL EXTEND                
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO THOSE ADJACENT COUNTIES THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A                  
LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOES EXIST.                                                  
THEN A NICE WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE 0C 850MB TEMPS.             
A WEAK COLD FRONT ON THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO MAKE IT DOWN ACROSS                    
NORTHERN LOWER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.  THE                
ECMWF CLEARS THE FRONT SOUTHWARD WHILE THE DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE                
GFS.  THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER WITH NO FRONT IN THE AREA.  EITHER                
WAY...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE             
SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS              
MOST OF THE CONUS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO                
 PORT HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY-SOUTH HALF- SOUTH HALF UNTIL 10               
 PM THURSDAY.                                                                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ460 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.              
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...CONSIDINE                                                          
LONG TERM....BGM                                                                
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NEAR TERM AND W/W/A                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
630 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
...HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND TO IMPACT THE AREA                     
TONIGHT...                                                                      
.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                                 
WILL PUT UP WIND ADVISORY FOR NYC...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND                   
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY UNTIL 06Z AS WIND GUSTS ALREADY IN THE LOWER            
40 MPH RANGE AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 50 MPH THROUGH THIS              
EVENING AS HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTM ACTIVITY MIXES DOWN 60 KT            
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.                                              
RADARS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SHOW IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION             
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS EASTERN PA AND                   
CHESAPEAKE BAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE NORTH CAROLINA                           
COAST...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS AND FLASH FLOOD              
WARNINGS FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN INTO THE WASHINGTON DC AREA. THIS LINE            
WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT HAS NOT MADE MUCH EASTWARD             
PROGRESS AS OF YET...SO WE SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FROM              
NYC WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS            
ARRIVING FROM NYC WEST BETWEEN 23Z-00Z. JUDGING FROM OBS OVER                   
SOUTHERN NJ ATTM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WE COULD SEE SOME               
SUSTAINED S-SE WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-45 MPH (JUST SHY OF                
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) EVEN BEFORE THE HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES. LOW             
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT CRANKS UP TO 55-65 KT THIS            
EVENING AS BAND OF HEAVIER CONVECTION APPROACHES...WITH STRONG                  
DYNAMIC FORCING VIA THE LLJ AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A                  
STRONG/DIFLUENT UPPER JET OVERCOMING MEAGER INSTABILITY TO SPARK                
PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACED THE CWA FROM NYC WEST INTO A                
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS FOR THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN                   
CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE                   
CONVECTIVE LINE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT AN ISOLATED                
TORNADO GIVEN FORECAST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT.                                   
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG                
LLJ...TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS TO +12C...PWAT TO            
1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX WELL INTO THE 30S...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN              
THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL                
CT/LI... WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE             
HEAVIEST CELLS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA              
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO EASTERN CT/LONG              
ISLAND UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                            
COLD FRONT CLEARS NYC AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT...AND ERN LI/SE CT BY              
12Z-13Z...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING BEHIND IT. LEANED TOWARD SLOWER            
NAM ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP ALREADY SLOW TO ENTER THE CWA...AND WOULD            
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS SLOWED THINGS DOWN FOR LATE TONIGHT            
INTO FRI MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE            
AREA PRECIP-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRI. STRONG COLD ADVECTION                 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS             
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRI              
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 60.                                                    
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DRY WEATHER                     
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT...WITH              
LOWER 40S IN NYC AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...BUT HIGHS WILL                
ONLY MAKE IT TO 50-55 ON SAT AND AROUND 50 ON SUN. AREAS NORTH AND              
WEST OF NYC MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUN MORNING AS A                 
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE              
TROUGH THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GENERALLY FOLLOWED 06Z             
GFS...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECWMF AND 0Z NCEP            
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE 12Z GFS...FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                     
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY                    
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...WHICH                
CURRENTLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 MONDAY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE CLOSEST TO THE            
AREA...BUT THE 12Z AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE FATHER              
OUT TO SEA...SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY OF              
THE CWA WILL EVEN BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM                
CANADA FOR THANKSGIVING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING SHOULD            
BE DRY...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT QUITE A BIT OF                 
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK...AND             
THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THERE BY MID WEEK. THE QUESTION IS              
WHERE DOES IT GO...GENERALLY 2 CAMPS FOR NOW...ONE IS HARMLESSLY OUT            
TO SEE...THE OTHER IS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA               
COAST...AS IT APPEARS THE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL BE TOO STRONG TO                
ALLOW FOR IT TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME...IT BEARS WATCHING. IN GENERAL                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES            
EXCEPT KGON...WHERE MARINE LAYER IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT.               
HAVE 15-20KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH 40KT OF WIND AT 1000 FT.               
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT              
WITH 55-60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 1500 FEET FLOWING OVER                  
15-25KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND                 
SHEAR SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN            
10-13Z FROM WEST TO EAST.                                                       
NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...CURRENTLY LIGHTNING                   
STRIKES HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS READING PA. RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW A             
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY               
FROM AROUND 22-04Z. IF LIGHTNING EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO CONVECTION IN             
CENTRAL PA...WILL AMEND TAFS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER                 
VALLEY TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CB/S...LIKELY FROM 0-3Z (1ST                
CUT).                                                                           
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION                
WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AS WELL.             
PRECIPITATION (AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) SHOULD                 
BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS 20-23Z AND EASTERN AREAS                             
23-02Z...INITIALLY STARTING OFF AS MVFR...BUT GOING OVER TO IFR                 
WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. SOME AREAS OF LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER            
EMBEDDED STORMS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH             
AROUND 9Z WEST AND AROUND 12Z EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OF             
1-2 HOURS AFTER MODERATE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ALONG WITH CEILINGS               
LIFTING TO VFR AROUND THE SAME TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH                 
WINDS BECOMING SW AT 10KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AS OF 19Z...KOKX WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 1 KFT AND             
ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THIS IS MIXING DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A 60-70 KT              
LLJ JUST OFF THE DECK OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE IN A                
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS...AND WILL ISSUE               
GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL                 
HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE AND                      
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING BUT             
WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO SCA LEVELS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL            
TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN...SO SCA HERE EXTENDS THROUGH              
SAT EVENING.                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...              
AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN                    
SATURDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY.                  
AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...SUSCEPTIBLE AREA SEEMS TO BE THE BACK BAYS            
ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY            
FLOW TONIGHT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND TIDAL DEPARTURES NEEDED            
FOR MINOR FLOODING ARE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL               
ABOUT 22Z-23Z FROM NYC WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAINS MOVE IN TONIGHT              
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE. AREAL QPF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1             
TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES                
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI/CT...AND THE                    
HEAVIEST SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN             
HOUR. RAINFALL OF THESE AMOUNTS/RATES APPROACHES/EXCEEDS FFG FOR                
SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST NJ...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH            
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH            
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     MORNING FOR CTZ006>008-010>012.                                            
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.                     
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011.                 
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ002>006-011.                    
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH                       
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.                                             
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>078-080.                 
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>076.                        
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY                     
     FOR ANZ335-338.                                                            
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-353-355.                 
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                
     ANZ330.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY EST FOR             
     ANZ353-355.                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                  
     ANZ350.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
NV                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO W/A/A                                  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
438 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
...HEAVY RAIN...THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND TO IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT...            
.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...RADARS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES SHOW            
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM LAKE                   
ONTARIO ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CHESAPEAKE BAY ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE            
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF SEVERE TSTM WARNINGS               
AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS FROM CENTRAL PA DOWN INTO THE WASHINGTON DC            
AREA. THIS LINE WILL ROTATE UP INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BUT HAS NOT                
MADE MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS AS OF YET...SO WE SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME              
LIGHT SHOWERS FROM NYC WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN                 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARRIVING FROM NYC WEST BETWEEN 23Z-00Z.                 
JUDGING FROM OBS OVER SOUTHERN NJ ATTM AND STRONG WIND FIELDS                   
ALOFT...WE COULD SEE SOME SUSTAINED S-SE WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS             
40-45 MPH (JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) EVEN BEFORE THE                  
HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD                 
FRONT CRANKS UP TO 55-65 KT THIS EVENING AS BAND OF HEAVIER                     
CONVECTION APPROACHES...WITH STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING VIA THE LLJ AND             
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG/DIFLUENT UPPER JET OVERCOMING             
MEAGER INSTABILITY TO SPARK PERHAPS A FEW TSTMS. SPC HAS PLACED THE             
CWA FROM NYC WEST INTO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS FOR THIS                  
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY BOWING              
SEGMENTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE. MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE CONCERNED               
ABOUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN FORECAST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT.                 
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG                
LLJ...TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH H8 DEWPOINTS TO +12C...PWAT TO            
1.5 INCHES AND K INDEX WELL INTO THE 30S...WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN              
THROUGHOUT THE CWA TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL                
CT/LI... WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE             
HEAVIEST CELLS. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA              
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO EASTERN CT/LONG              
ISLAND UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                            
COLD FRONT CLEARS NYC AROUND 06Z-07Z TONIGHT...AND ERN LI/SE CT BY              
12Z-13Z...WITH PRECIP QUICKLY ENDING BEHIND IT. LEANED TOWARD SLOWER            
NAM ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP ALREADY SLOW TO ENTER THE CWA...AND WOULD            
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS SLOWED THINGS DOWN FOR LATE TONIGHT            
INTO FRI MORNING.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...DRY SLOT WILL KEEP MOST OF THE            
AREA PRECIP-FREE FOR THE MAJORITY OF FRI. STRONG COLD ADVECTION                 
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS             
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER FRI              
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY AROUND 60.                                                    
COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DRY WEATHER                     
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO NEAR NORMAL FRI NIGHT...WITH              
LOWER 40S IN NYC AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...BUT HIGHS WILL                
ONLY MAKE IT TO 50-55 ON SAT AND AROUND 50 ON SUN. AREAS NORTH AND              
WEST OF NYC MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SUN MORNING AS A                 
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE              
TROUGH THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED INVOF THE GREAT LAKES.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...GENERALLY FOLLOWED 06Z             
GFS...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE 0Z ECWMF AND 0Z NCEP            
ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE 12Z GFS...FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.                     
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH                 
TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY                    
POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW...WHICH                
CURRENTLY WARRANTS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SE 1/2 MONDAY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE CLOSEST TO THE            
AREA...BUT THE 12Z AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE FATHER              
OUT TO SEA...SO THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY OF              
THE CWA WILL EVEN BE IMPACTED BY THE SYSTEM. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES            
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM                
CANADA FOR THANKSGIVING. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING SHOULD            
BE DRY...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT QUITE A BIT OF                 
ENERGY WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK...AND             
THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THERE BY MID WEEK. THE QUESTION IS              
WHERE DOES IT GO...GENERALLY 2 CAMPS FOR NOW...ONE IS HARMLESSLY OUT            
TO SEE...THE OTHER IS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/CAROLINA               
COAST...AS IT APPEARS THE HIGH BUILDING IN WILL BE TOO STRONG TO                
ALLOW FOR IT TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE               
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME...IT BEARS WATCHING. IN GENERAL                  
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES            
EXCEPT KGON...WHERE MARINE LAYER IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT.               
HAVE 15-20KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE WITH 40KT OF WIND AT 1000 FT.               
EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT              
WITH 55-60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 1500 FEET FLOWING OVER                  
15-25KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND                 
SHEAR SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...BETWEEN            
10-13Z FROM WEST TO EAST.                                                       
NEXT ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER...CURRENTLY LIGHTNING                   
STRIKES HAVE MADE IT AS FAR NORTH AS READING PA. RUC/NAM/GFS SHOW A             
CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY               
FROM AROUND 22-04Z. IF LIGHTNING EXPANDS NORTHWARD TO CONVECTION IN             
CENTRAL PA...WILL AMEND TAFS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER                 
VALLEY TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR CB/S...LIKELY FROM 0-3Z (1ST                
CUT).                                                                           
THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION                
WILL CREATE QUITE A BIT OF TURBULENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AS WELL.             
PRECIPITATION (AND ASSOCIATED LOW CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES) SHOULD                 
BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS 20-23Z AND EASTERN AREAS                             
23-02Z...INITIALLY STARTING OFF AS MVFR...BUT GOING OVER TO IFR                 
WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. SOME AREAS OF LIFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN STRONGER            
EMBEDDED STORMS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH             
AROUND 9Z WEST AND AROUND 12Z EAST...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OF             
1-2 HOURS AFTER MODERATE PRECIPITATION ENDS...ALONG WITH CEILINGS               
LIFTING TO VFR AROUND THE SAME TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH                 
WINDS BECOMING SW AT 10KT OR LESS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON               
FRIDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...AS OF 19Z...KOKX WSR-88D VWP INDICATES 40 KT AT 1 KFT AND             
ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THIS IS MIXING DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A 60-70 KT              
LLJ JUST OFF THE DECK OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MOVE IN A                
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE WATERS...AND WILL ISSUE               
GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL                 
HOURS OF GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE AND                      
OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA FRI MORNING BUT             
WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO SCA LEVELS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL            
TAKE A WHILE TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN...SO SCA HERE EXTENDS THROUGH              
SAT EVENING.                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...              
AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN                    
SATURDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH TUESDAY.                  
AS FOR COASTAL FLOODING...SUSCEPTIBLE AREA SEEMS TO BE THE BACK BAYS            
ON THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND WITH A STRONG PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY            
FLOW TONIGHT. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND TIDAL DEPARTURES NEEDED            
FOR MINOR FLOODING ARE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.                      
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL               
ABOUT 22Z-23Z FROM NYC WEST...BUT THEN HEAVY RAINS MOVE IN TONIGHT              
PER NEAR TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE. AREAL QPF TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1             
TO 2 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES                
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LI/CT...AND THE                    
HEAVIEST SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONLY AN             
HOUR. RAINFALL OF THESE AMOUNTS/RATES APPROACHES/EXCEEDS FFG FOR                
SOME RIVERS IN NORTHEAST NJ...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH            
FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH            
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY                
     MORNING FOR CTZ006>008-010>012.                                            
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-009.                     
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002>006-011.                 
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH                       
     FRIDAY MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.                                             
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>078-080.                 
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                 
     ANZ335-338.                                                                
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338-353-355.                 
     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                
     ANZ330.                                                                    
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY EST FOR             
     ANZ353-355.                                                                
     GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR                  
     ANZ350.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
NEAR/SHORT TERM...GOODMAN                                                       
AVIATION/LONG TERM...PFM                                                        
MARINE...AL                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
930 AM CST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES.                          
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS WITH NO REAL               
MODEL PICKING UP ON MVFR/IFR CIGS FROM VALLEY EAST. MIXING DOES                 
INCREASE FROM VALLEY WEST TODAY WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW              
ADIABATIC LAYER AROUND 18Z AND AFTER WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO SCOUR               
OUT LOWER CIGS FOR SOME FILTERED SOLAR. WITH LACK OF ABOVE FARTHER              
EAST CONCERNED LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD TOUGH LIMITING ANY SOLAR. FARTHER            
WEST MODEST WARM ADVECTION...MIXING AND SOME SOLAR MAY ALLOW FOR                
SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO LOWER MAX                        
TEMPERATURES FROM VALLEY EAST. SEEING SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS NW FA            
FROM KMVX-88D HOWEVER WITH COLUMN DRY BLO 700 MB VIA 12Z UA PLOTS               
RETURNS LIKELY ONLY ADVANCING MID CLOUD COVER.                                  
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
133 PM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...                                                          
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO CONTINUES TO MOVE                   
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY SLOT THAT AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER                
TODAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS                   
HAVING RETURNED. PRECIPITATION THAT IS NOW PIVOTING INTO THE                    
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF              
MID LEVEL FORCING COINCIDENT WITH 50H CLOSED LOW. THIS FORCING                  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PIVOT UP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS                 
EVENING. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NOW EXIST ACROSS THE                       
AREA...EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AS CEILINGS LOWER TO OUR                
SOUTHWEST. A SW-NE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT STRETCHES FROM IL                 
INTO MI APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL                          
DEFORMATION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST BUT IS                    
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE WESTERN PART OF OUR               
CWA...AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NE. ITS ONLY AFFECT SHOULD BE TO THE                 
KDAY TAF SITE AS CIGS SHOULD LOWER INTO...BUT REMAIN MVFR. THIS                 
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT INTO THE                  
WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES              
OFF TO THE NE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                        
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED                
DRY SLOT HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE AREA...SHUTTING OFF MOST OF THE               
PRECIP AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE               
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS TODAY              
AS WELL AS LOWERING THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRESENCE OF DRY SLOT.               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                          
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG                 
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN                         
ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.                  
NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW                       
ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS                 
PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS                      
NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                        
WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME                      
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                          
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH                
OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF                 
SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN                     
INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN                
EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN                   
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH                  
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S.                                                  
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE              
TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS              
BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS                
THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK               
TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION                       
CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE                      
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH                
CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED                 
ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS.              
03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY                  
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE                
LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY                 
AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU                     
MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN               
HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH.                                          
UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF              
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO                   
AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF                
PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW                  
SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS                  
AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY                  
SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING                  
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR               
FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF.                 
WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND                 
MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE.               
DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL                   
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH                
THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN              
1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.                                           
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE                    
FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS                
BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN                  
WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED                    
LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL               
BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S.                        
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                                           
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH                      
INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST                     
COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN               
OHIO.                                                                           
SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING              
INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME                 
THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS                  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING               
IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION                  
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES                
WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM                
SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT               
INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW                 
ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN                 
SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN                  
NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS.                                        
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST              
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS.                                                     
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1126 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OVER THE ILN FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED                
DRY SLOT HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE AREA...SHUTTING OFF MOST OF THE               
PRECIP AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. THE               
ZONES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER TEMPS TODAY              
AS WELL AS LOWERING THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PRESENCE OF DRY SLOT.               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                         
AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG                 
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN                         
ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.                  
NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW                       
ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS                 
PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS                      
NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                        
WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME                      
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO.                               
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                          
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH                
OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF                 
SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN                     
INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN                
EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN                   
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH                  
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S.                                                  
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE              
TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS              
BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS                
THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK               
TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION                       
CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE                      
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH                
CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED                 
ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS.              
03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY                  
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE                
LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY                 
AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU                     
MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN               
HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH.                                          
UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF              
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO                   
AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF                
PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW                  
SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS                  
AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY                  
SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING                  
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR               
FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF.                 
WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND                 
MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE.               
DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL                   
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH                
THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN              
1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.                                           
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE                    
FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS                
BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN                  
WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED                    
LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL               
BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S.                        
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                                           
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH                      
INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST                     
COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN               
OHIO.                                                                           
SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING              
INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME                 
THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS                  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING               
IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION                  
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES                
WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM                
SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT               
INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW                 
ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN                 
SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN                  
NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS.                                        
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST              
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS.                                                     
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
601 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.AVIATION /12Z-12Z/...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR KSDF WITH STRONG                 
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER TAF SITES. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS RAIN                         
ARCHING FROM EASTERN KY TO SOUTHERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.                  
NAM AND GFS SHOW BEST FORCING THIS MORNING AS SURFACE LOW                       
ACCELERATES AND PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS                 
PM. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW PULLS                      
NORTHWARD WITH INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.                                        
WILL CARRY TSRA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS AM. RUC SHOWS SOME                      
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LOW...CENTRAL OHIO.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS PLACES SFC LO IN SW KENTUCKY...TO THE SOUTH                
OF KEVV. AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIFTING DUE NORTH AHEAD OF                 
SFC LO FOR LAST SVRL HOURS. BULK OF THIS HAS MOVED INTO SRN                     
INDIANA...BUT ERN EDGE IS AFFECTING SW FCST AREA ATTM. HAVE SEEN                
EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE CONVECTION AS WELL. TEMPS HAVE BEEN                   
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THRU THE NIGHT AS SFC LO APPCHS...WITH                  
ENTIRE FCST AREA IN U40S/L50S.                                                  
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SFC LO N/NE              
TO NEAR KCVG BY 12Z...THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO THE CNTRL GRT LKS              
BY ERLY EVNG. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CAT POPS                
THIS MRNG ACRS WESTERN 1/2 FCST AREA WITH LKLY POPS CLIMBING BACK               
TO CATEGORICAL ACRS EASTERN FCST AREA. AREA OF CONVECTION                       
CURRENTLY LIFTING ACRS CVG METRO ATTM EXTENDS BACK INTO SE                      
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND SOUTH                
CNTRL OH BY DAYBREAK IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LO. HAVE INSERTED                 
ISOLD THUNDER FOR ENTIRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG BASED ON CURRENT OBS.              
03Z RUC ANALYSIS INDCG A MODEST AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY                  
WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO REGION EAST OF SFC LO TRACK...AND HAVE                
LINGERED ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-71 INTO ERLY                 
AFTN. PCPN AREA WILL LIFT NORTH THRU MUCH OF FCST AREA THRU                     
MIDDAY...WITH -SHRA LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FOR AFTN               
HOURS AS UPR LO APPCHS FROM THE SOUTH.                                          
UPR LO WILL LIFT ACRS FCST AREA THIS EVNG...AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF              
REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL LINGER -SHRA THIS EVNG AS UPR LO                   
AND ASSOCD WEAK MID LVL DEFORMATION MOVE ACRS FCST AREA. BULK OF                
PCPN SHOULD BE OVER BEFORE ENUF COLD AIR CAN WORK IN FOR A FEW                  
SNOW FLAKES TO MIX IN. HAVE MAINTAINED RA/SN MIX FOR FEW HOURS                  
AROUND DAYBREAK FRI ACRS FAR NRN FCST AREA. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY                  
SCATTER OUT FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING FRI MRNG...WITH INCREASING                  
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS AFTN PROGRESSES. SFC HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR               
FRI AFTN AND HOLDING INTO SAT AS REGION REMAINS UNDER UPR TROF.                 
WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL PASS TO NORTH OF FCST AREA FRI NIGHT AND                 
MAY INCREASE MID/HI LVL CLOUDS A BIT BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE.               
DRY WX IS EXPECTED SAT WITH HI PRES RIDGE AT SFC. CLOUDS WILL                   
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTN AND EVNG AS AN UPR LO DROPS SOUTH                
THRU THE GRT LKS. HAVE BROUGHT LO CHANCE FOR MAINLY -SHSN INTO NRN              
1/2 FCST AREA AFT MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.                                           
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS TEMPS ACRS MUCH OF THE                    
FCST AREA WILL PROBABLY NOT GO MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT READINGS                
BEFORE SFC LO GOES BY LATER THIS MRNG. LO LVL CAA COMMENCES IN                  
WAKE OF SFC LO...WITH TEMPS FALLING THRU AFTN HOURS. CHANGED                    
LITTLE FOR REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM FROM PREV FCST...AS HIGHS WILL               
BE IN THE M/U40S FRI/SAT WITH LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 30S.                        
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST. WED AFTN LONG TERM DICUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.            
RYAN                                                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 1230 AM EST THU NOV 16 2006/                                           
AVIATION /06Z-06Z/...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW JUST NORTH OF KBNA WITH                      
INVERTED TROF INTO NORTHERN OHIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW BEST                     
COVERAGE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN               
OHIO.                                                                           
SURFACE LOW WILL WORK ACROSS TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE PULLING              
INTO GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING. BEST THREAT OF RAIN WILL COME                 
THIS MORNING AS DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW WORKS                  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE LOW BEING               
IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES WILL KEEP SOME KIND OF PRECIP MENTION                  
THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE IFR AS TAF SITES                
WILL STAY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.                                      
TIPTON                                                                          
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 300 PM EST WED NOV 15 2006/                                            
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                       
PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN                     
PLAINS AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FA. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FROM                
SW TO NE DURING THE DAY. H5 TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE OH VLY SAT NGT               
INTO SUN. THIS WILL KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS. THICKNESSES ARE LOW                 
ENUF SAT NGT FOR -SHSN...THEN AS THICKNESSES RISE ON SUN...PCPN                 
SHOULD TURN TO SHRA...THEN BACK TO SN SUN NGT AS PCPN ENDS SUN                  
NGT. DONT EXPECT ANY REAL ACCUMULATIONS.                                        
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE OHIO FOR THE REST              
OF THE PERIOD.                                                                  
TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO HPC/MOS.                                                     
SITES                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
236 PM CST THU NOV 16 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY FORECAST            
PERIOD.                                                                         
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER THE OHIO                  
VALLEY REGION...WITH ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND            
NORTH CENTRAL USA. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY DEEP LOW                
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR ERIE PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE                  
GRADIENT EXTENDING WEST INTO MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN.              
THIS RESULTED IN SOME BRISK WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST               
AREA. PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WELL SOUTHEAST OF                  
FORECAST AREA AS WELL.                                                          
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS HOW TO HANDLE CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT.             
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN                
THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF MADISON. THIS              
TREND NOW SHOWING UP TOWARDS FOND DU LAC. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS               
FROM NAM/WRF...GFS AND RUC HAVE A THIN MVFR CLOUD DECK DEPICTED.                
THIS LAYER IS 1000 FEET THICK AT BEST. THE GFS AND RUC DRY OUT THE              
BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAM/WRF TRAPPING A              
SATURATED LAYER BELOW THE INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.                      
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS                    
EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF FEWER CLOUDS. SO...MORE AREAS                  
SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DECOUPLE WITH                      
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. TREND TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE THIS                
EVENING SEEMS REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL              
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS TO WEST A              
NEGATING FACTOR. WILL WAIT UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO DECIDE EXACT                  
WORDING IN FORECAST.                                                            
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS SERIES              
OF SURFACE HIGHS TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION. NAM/WRF...GFS AND SHORT               
RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING                    
THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A FEW WEAK                
VORTICITY MAXIMA. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS MARGINAL...DESPITE LOW              
TO MID LEVELS BECOMING MOIST. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP.               
SO...WILL CONTINUE FLURRY MENTION FOR SATURDAY...AND LINGER IT                  
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WHEN BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS. WENT              
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MAV MOS HIGHS...WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION               
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND EXPECTED CLOUDS.                                       
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ECMWF                
AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN              
EVOLUTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM             
RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST MEMBERS. DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEPICTED TO                  
SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN USA INTO FLORIDA DURING THIS                  
PERIOD. RESULTING RIDGING OCCURS UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE              
ROCKIES...AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY                
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION RESULTS OVER THE REGION...AS SOUTH TO                 
SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL              
CANADA TAKE HOLD. MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING...WITH SOME MODELS NOT                
EXTENDING WARM ADVECTION ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG              
HIGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY...AS UPPER FLOW               
BECOMES ZONAL. THUS...WOULD EXPECT A DRY PERIOD...WITH MILD                     
TEMPERATURES. WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN MEX MOS FOR TEMPERATURES IN                
THIS PERIOD.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WOOD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1238 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS                    
MORNING. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SCT LGT SHRA DEVELOPING IN WAKE              
OF DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG WEAK TROUGH NOTED IN SURFACE WIND FIELDS.             
ALSO SOME CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM               
LAKE MICHIGAN GIVEN NW FLOW AND MARGINAL DELTA-T. HAVE CARRIED SOME             
-DZ AT KFWA THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD TO COVER.               
EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK COVERS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPECT                
MAINLY MVFR STRATUS TO DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY. DID             
OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN TRENDS IN              
MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS...AND APPROACH OF NEXT MID LEVEL               
SHORT WAVE BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY AID IN DISRUPTING LOW LEVEL              
INVERSION AND ALLOW STRATUS TO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP HAS INCREASED THIS              
EVENING. DID A LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY TO REFRESH WORDING OF                 
ENDING OF PRECIP, BUT ALSO MADE MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN                 
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVERAGE. WITH WINDS ALONG LAKESHORE AND AT THE BUOY            
STILL NEAR GALE FORCE AT 02Z, EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR                     
NEARSHORE ZONES TO 08Z AND ISSUED SCA THROUGH FRI EVE AS WAVES WILL             
TAKE AWHILE TO COME DOWN.                                                       
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING IMPRESSIVE BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN                
OVER NW CWA...WHICH CLOSELY MATCHES PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION AXIS               
FROM 18Z RUC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS 6HR FCST FROM NAM-WRF. TRANSLATION             
OF THIS FEATURE AS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL BE            
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM. WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS UPPER LOW OVER               
EASTERN KY ATTM...AND MODELS HAVE THIS LIFTING SLOWLY NE THROUGH OH             
VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE SFC LOW MOVES UP INTO EASTERN GREAT LAKES.            
EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT BETTER FORCING FOR BANDED PRECIP ON BACK SIDE              
OF LOW NORTH AS PRECIP GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. SHOULD SEE MOD-HVY            
PRECIP DIMINISH OVER OUR CWA LEAVING LIGHTER BAND OF PRECIP TO MOVE             
ACROSS EASTERN HALF THIS EVENING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING THIS                 
EVENING SHOULD LIMIT DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN SO CHANGE OVER TO            
SNOW NOT EXPECTED...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO               
LEAVE MENTION OF MIX PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD EXIT QUICKLY AS VERY DRY             
MID LEVELS COMING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. GOOD N/NW FETCH COMING DOWN            
LAKE MICHIGAN BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS ONLY 2KFT AND 850MB TEMPS ONLY              
DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD INHIBIT ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. DRY                
FCST ON TAP FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT TO SEE DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE              
IN WEST AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER IN EAST WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.           
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LEAD UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED             
WELL UP INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROF WILL             
DROP SOUTHEAST BEHIND TO THE LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS               
WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND            
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP JUST A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS               
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.             
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND            
SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOMING DUE NORTH FAVOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER               
LAPORTE COUNTY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL RAPIDLY SUNDAY NIGHT...SO                
KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT THIS PERIOD            
DRY ALSO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ANALOG                
SIGNALS INDICATE A UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA NEAR               
160W...WITH POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER 240 METERS. THIS              
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE              
CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                          
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM EST FRIDAY UNTIL 10 PM EST                  
     FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                            
UPDATE...DJT                                                                    
SHORT TERM...JAL                                                                
LONG TERM...SKIPPER                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1043 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORE WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW NOW SHOWING UP OVR N MN. 12Z KINL SOUNDING             
SHOWED A MOIST PROFILE THROUGH THE TROP WHILE TAMDAR DATA JUST EAST             
TOWARD CYQT AND 12Z KGRB SOUNDING STILL SHOWED LARGE DEWPOINT                   
DEPRESSIONS 875MB TO 675MB. COMPARED RUC/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO              
REALITY AT KINL AT 12Z. RUC DID BETTER JOB SHOWING THE LOWER LEVEL              
MOISTENING. RUC H7-H8 AND H8-H9 AND H95 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALL                
DECREASE MARKEDLY OVR W LK SUPERIOR THROUGH 18Z AND INTO WEST TIER              
OF CWA BTWN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENT MQT VWP ALREADY SHOWS THIS                     
MOISTENING UNDERWAY WITH ECHOES TO 4.5 KFT AGL AND ADDITIONAL ECHOES            
LOWERING TO 11.5 KFT. ONCE THE TROP SATURATES...EXPECT LGT SNOW OVR             
MN TO PUSH INTO WEST CWA THIS AFTN AS SHORTWAVE OVR MN PRESSES EAST.            
PCPN PERHAPS WILL BE HELPED ALONG SOME BY DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WEST               
FLOW AS WELL. BLYR TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SO KEPT MENTION OF DRIZZLE              
MIXED WITH SNOW FOR FIRST FEW HOURS. BASED ON RUC THEN NAM GUIDANCE             
...EXPECT THE LGT SNOW TO STREAK INTO NCNTRL UPR MI TOWARD 00Z. MADE            
ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS ON INTO TONIGHT FOR THESE TRENDS. FARTHER EAST             
DID KEEP SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES IN GRIDS MOSTLY EAST OF MQT-SAW CLOSE            
TO LK SUPERIOR. THUS FAR THIS MORNING...THE LGT PCPN IS VERY SPOTTY             
IF IT IS OCCURRING AT ALL. THIS DESPITE MQT VWP SHOWING MOISTURE TO             
4.5 KFT AND TEMPS AT TOP OF INVERSION SUFFICIENT FOR LK EFFECT PCPN.            
SUB CLOUD LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING 6 TO 8 DEGREES F SO            
THIS IS LIKELY INHIBITING LGT PCPN ATTM. WINDS BECOME MORE NW                   
THROUGH AFTN FM MQT TO EAST AND LIKE PREV SHIFT MENTIONED...THINK A             
LONGER OVER WATER TRAJECTORY MAY EVENTUALLY HELP OUT DRIZZLE AND                
FLURRIES. ALSO...RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE                
REACHED. SO...MAY SEE AN UPTICK TO LGT PCPN DOWNWIND OF LK SUPERIOR             
DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE LAND.                   
OVERALL THOUGH...BETTER PCPN WILL BE FAR W THOUGH BY LATE AFTN.                 
TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED 420 AM EST)...                                         
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT PCPN TODAY AND LES OVER THE             
WEEKEND.                                                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP VORTEX OVER THE                
GULF OF ALASKA. RESULT IS PACIFIC FLOW DOMINATING DOWNSTREAM INTO               
THE CONUS AND SW CANADA. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN             
INTO MANITOBA. THIS WAVE WILL POSE THE NEXT POTENTIAL OF SYNOPTIC               
PCPN AS IT HEADS ESE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS ON ITS              
WAY SE...BOUND FOR THE MEAN TROF POSITION CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN                
CONUS. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS            
FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN WI/ERN MN INTO MO. UNDER NRLY FLOW AHEAD              
OF THE RIDGE...KMQT RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME LIGHT PCPN OVERNIGHT ACROSS            
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI. 00Z RAOBS AND EVENING TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS FROM FLIGHTS OUT OF CYQT ALL DEPICT VERY SHARP LOW-LEVEL              
INVERSIONS. AT CWPL...INVERSION WAS BASED AT 800MB WITH TEMP OF                 
-12C. AT CYQT...INVERSION WAS AT 850MB WITH TEMP OF -10C. AT                    
KINL...INVERSION WAS AT 875MB WITH TEMP OF -7C. WITH CYQT SOUNDING              
MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF AIRMASS CROSSING THE LAKE...THE -10C TEMP AT             
INVERSION BASE IS SUFFICIENT FOR THE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PCPN IN THE              
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS OF NCNTRL UPPER MI. -10C SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT            
FOR PCPN TO BE IN THE FORM OF -SN/FLURRIES SINCE TEMPS ARE LOW                  
ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE NUCLEATION IN MOST CASES (-SN HAS FALLEN HERE AT            
THE OFFICE OVERNIGHT). HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF             
SOME SPOTTY -DZ/-FZDZ WITH LOWEST TEMP IN MOIST LAYER AT -10C.                  
AS SHORTWAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA MOVES TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE             
EVENING...HIGH PRES RIDGE JUST TO THE W DISSIPATES AS IT DRIFTS E.              
RESULT WILL BE N WINDS THIS MORNING BACKING NW THIS AFTN. WITH BACK             
EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS JUST ABOUT OUT OF FAR NE MN...THERE IS HOPE OF               
GETTING RID OF THE STRATOCU OVER PARTS OF THE FCST AREA (MAINLY W)              
TODAY AS NW WINDS ADVECT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO UPPER MI.                      
HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO MAKE UP FOR                   
WHATEVER CLEARING OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO...EXPECT PLENTY OF               
CLOUD COVER TODAY. ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290K SFC) WHICH IS GENERATING             
THE MID CLOUDS IS QUITE STRONG RIGHT NOW IN NW MN INTO ADJACENT                 
MANITOBA/ONTARIO. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT PCPN IS OCCURRING IN THAT                
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEAKENING THIS ASCENT              
AS IT SHIFTS ESE TODAY. WEAKENING ASCENT AND THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS            
DEPICTED ON 00Z KINL SOUNDING (850-650MB) SUGGEST PCPN SHOULDN'T BE             
AN ISSUE. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PCPN               
(FLURRIES/DZ/-FZDZ) IN THE FCST OVER NCNTRL UPPER MI THIS MORNING               
GIVEN SUFFICIENT OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND UPSLOPE FLOW. PCPN SHOULD             
END EARLY IN THE AFTN AS WINDS BECOME NW AND LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT SOME            
(MORE OF AN INVERTED-V PROFILE)...SIMILAR TO WHAT 00Z KINL SOUNDING             
SHOWED. MIXING TO AROUND 900MB OF NAM/GFS FCST SOUNDINGS YIELDS MAX             
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S WHICH FAVORS LOWER END OF VARIOUS MOS                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO NW ONTARIO THIS EVENING ONLY APPROACHES LAKE             
SUPERIOR BY 12Z SAT. NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING DRY LAYER            
CENTERED AROUND 850-800MB ERODING THRU THE EVENING OVER THE W WITH              
DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE OVERNIGHT. DEEP LAYER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH             
SHORTWAVE AS VIEWED IN QVECTOR PROGS IS QUITE WEAK...AND THERE IS NO            
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AFTER COLUMN MOISTENS. SO...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN             
THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SNOW. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR -SN ALTHOUGH IT            
MAY END UP BEING JUST FLURRIES. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR               
OVER THE W...850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -7C BY 12Z SAT. COMBINED                
WITH DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE AND WEAK LIFT...WOULD EXPECT LES TO                  
DEVELOP. SFC TROF DROPPING ACROSS THE LAKE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO               
THE N OR NNW WILL AID DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER                
PORTIONS OF ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES WHERE BEST LOW-LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED. NONETHELESS...PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH                   
ACCUMULATION...1 INCH OR LESS...GIVEN LATE START TO DEVELOPING LES.             
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ROUGHLY THE E HALF OF FCST AREA DRY OR JUST                  
MENTIONED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR LINGERING.                            
DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADS E ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST                
AREA EARLY SAT. ALONG WITH LINGERING WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING...                 
EXPECT SOME -SN/FLURRIES ACROSS THE FCST AREA (CHC POPS).                       
MEANWHILE...SFC TROF WILL PASS S OF ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING            
IN NNW/N LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. LOWEST 850MB TEMPS (AROUND -8C) WILL              
BE FOUND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH INVERSION FALLING TO            
4-5KFT AND BEST DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMPS ABOVE INVERSION IN THE              
DRY AIR...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DESPITE FAVORABLE NNW UPSLOPE             
FLOW INTO ONTONAGON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES. WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS AROUND            
1 INCH WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE MORNING. ON THE KEWEENAW... NNW FLOW             
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LES AS IT IS TOWARD KIWD. WILL KEEP POPS IN             
THE CHC RANGE THERE. OVER THE NCNTRL...THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE BURST            
OF SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF SFC TROF. OTHERWISE...850MB              
TEMPS OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN              
OVER THE W DURING THE AFTN...WHICH PUTS CONDITIONS TOWARD THE                   
MARGINAL SIDE FOR LES. EVEN SO...LONGER FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR                  
DECENT LES COVERAGE AND LIKELY POPS. HAVE PAINTED ONLY 1-2 INCH                 
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NCNTRL SINCE LIKE THE W THE BEST DENDRITIC                
SNOW GROWTH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER.                                
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END INLAND SAT EVENING. LES WILL THEN               
DIMINISH FROM W TO E AS WAA GETS UNDERWAY. IN FACT...IT SHOULD WARM             
SUFFICIENTLY OVER THE W TO END ALL LES OVERNIGHT (850MB TEMPS RISE              
TO AROUND -4C BY 12Z SUN). LIGHT LES OVER THE E WILL END EARLY SUN              
MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO RISE.                                        
A GENERALLY QUIET/DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE OVER SUN                
AFTN THRU AT LEAST THANKSGIVING. SUN NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE              
SSE THRU ONTARIO...BUT BULK OF FORCING STAYS E OF FCST AREA.                    
COMBINED WITH FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS DEPICTED BY GFS FCST SOUNDINGS...              
NOT CONCERNED WITH ANY PCPN AT THIS POINT. A SURGE OF COLDER AIR                
DOES SWIPE THE AREA MON MORNING WITH GFS BRINGING 850MB TEMPS DOWN              
TO AS LOW AS -7C OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS COULD GET LES GOING               
OVER ALGER/LUCE COUNTY...BUT THE DRY AIRMASS INDICATED BY GFS FCST              
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS CHC IS VERY MINIMAL. ALSO...GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN             
BRINGING SUCH COLD AIR S. SO...WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST MON.                   
MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD E FROM THE ROCKIES/SCNTRL CANADA INTO              
THE GREAT LAKES MON BEFORE FLATTENING AND LEAVING ZONAL FLOW TO                 
DOMINATE THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WITH MAIN JET ALONG OR N OF THE                 
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...MILD/DRY WEATHER SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS UPPER            
MI. ONE SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THRU THE FLOW WILL PASS OVER OR N OF THE              
UPPER LAKES TUE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONG...BUT CONDENSATION PRES            
DEFICITS ARE SIGNIFICANT (OVER 100MB). SO ANY PCPN SHOULD BE N OF               
HERE WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTENING TO OCCUR.                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JLA                                                                    
PREV DISCUSSION...ROLFSON                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
954 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST               
STATES. A SFC TROF WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NC. TEMPS ACROSS THE              
AREA WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER               
30S TO LOWER 40S.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
QUICK PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROF EARLY TTHIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO                
HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE                  
RIDGING FOLLOWS BEHIND. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS RELATIVELY LOW               
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ASSOC/W THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH UPSTREAM IR                 
SAT AND SFC OBS SHOWING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER                        
MS/AL/TN/KY/IN. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING MID AND              
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE AFTER 21Z. WITH FULL                     
SUN...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC UNDERNEATH SUBSIDENCE               
INVERSION AT 875-900 MB THIS AFTERNOON AND RUC SOUNDINGS HINT AT A              
LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL. THIS LEAVES THE                        
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW FLAT CU...ALTHOUGH AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD IS                
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ELSEWHERE IN THE COLUMN.               
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP FORECAST AS MOSTLY CLEAR AND WILL BUMP UP                 
HIGH TEMPS A BIT CLOSER TOWARDS GUIDANCE VALUES GIVEN CURRENT                   
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. -VINCENT                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 326 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                            
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE CLOSE TO THE GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WITH THE             
EXCEPTION OF MONDAY WHERE FORECAST WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.                
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOW SUN ANGLES SUGGEST LITTLE MODIFICATION              
OF THE CURRENT AIR MASS. REORIENTED COOLEST HIGHS SATURDAY TO THE               
NORTHEAST TO MATCH THE LOWER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES IN THAT                 
AREA. SOME CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS              
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                                         
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
A GENERAL CONSENSUS IS DEVELOPING IN THE MODELS TO CUT OFF AN                   
UPPER LEVEL LOW MONDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGIA AND DRIVE               
IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF PENINSULAR FLORIDA TUESDAY EVENING.                     
ASSUMING THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS GENERALLY CORRECT...                  
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT APPEAR TO FAR ENOUGH TO THE                   
NORTHWEST TO PRESENT A PRECIPITATION THREAT TO CENTRAL NORTH                    
CAROLINA. AN ADJUSTMENT NORTH OR WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN                 
FUTURE MODEL FORECAST WOULD JEOPARDIZE THIS SCENARIO.                           
TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL BELOW NORMAL WITH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING       
TO BE THE COOLEST AT THIS TIME.                                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW OVER OHIO WILL                  
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS AT 3 TO 5 THOUSAND                  
FEET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN                     
CONTROL FROM 12Z ONWARD AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS FROM THE REGION. AT                 
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF              
COAST STATES...RESULTING IN A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. -BL/RHJ                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT                                                              
SHORT TERM...VINCENT                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID                                               
1024 AM MST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...NO UPDATES. LIGHT SPRINKLES WITH TRACE AMOUNTS                    
REPORTED AT TWIN FALLS AND MCCALL THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST IN SE               
OREGON TODAY AND SW IDAHO THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO AN                    
UPPER IMPULSE NEAR 40N 130W OR 500-800 MILES WEST OF BOISE GAINING              
DEFINITION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WILL CROSS THE ORE-IDA BORDER              
AROUND 6Z/11 PM TONIGHT. BOUY 46651 AND SEVERAL SHIPS OF                        
OPPORTUNITY INDICATE A DEFINED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE AS                 
WELL. MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE PRECIP WTIH THIS SYSTEM EVEN AS                  
THEIR MASS FIELDS APPEAR WEAK COMPARED TO SATELLITE BAROCLINIC                  
LEAF SIGNATURE. LARGE SCALE IS IN BROAD RIDGING AHEAD OF MASSIVE                
GULF OF ALASKA LOW...SO WEAK SOLUTION OFFERED BY NMM/GFS AND RUC                
WAS ACCEPTED FOR NOW.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY                    
AVERAGING 250/18 KTS AT 12000 FT MSL. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.              
MOISTURE FROM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BRING                      
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON                   
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF                
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH                 
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST            
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF                   
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN              
VALLEYS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND ISOLATED IFR/LIFR                     
CONDITIONS UNTIL ABOUT 17Z SATURDAY. AFTER 17Z SATURDAY CONDITIONS              
WILL BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT              
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS            
SOUTHERN OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO AT THIS TIME WITH INCREASING               
CLOUDS BUT NOTHING MORE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATER               
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWFA AS THE WAVE             
GETS CLOSER. THE SECOND WAVE IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT AND APPEARS TO             
BE TAPPING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 135W AND            
140W. THIS WAVE ARRIVES OVER THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING               
FOR A SECOND SHOT OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. BOTH THESE                   
FEATURES ARE QUITE SUBTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT MODELS SEEM TO               
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON PICKING UP ON THESE WEAK SYSTEMS. WILL PLAY IT            
CLOSE TO THE VEST AND GO BASICALLY WITH MOS POPS IN THIS SITUATION              
WITH LIGHT SHOWERS FAVORING SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.             
AFTER THE SECOND WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT...FLOW AMPLIFIES ALLOWING A            
RIDGE TO INTENSIFY ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHING HEIGHTS             
AND THICKNESSES HIGHER OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. NOT QUITE SURE               
WHY MOS GUIDANCE IS HANDLING SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS SO COOL OTHER THAN             
THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK INVERSION SETTING UP UNDER BUILDING RIDGE             
AND WARMING ALOFT...THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM CLIMBING TO THEIR                
POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT FEEL WE ARE QUITE INTO THE                   
INVERSION PATTERN JUST YET...SO WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FORECASTED              
ALONG WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND GOOD WARMING AT MID LEVELS...FEEL               
THE JUSTIFICATION IS THERE FOR A VERY MILD MID NOVEMBER DAY ON                  
SATURDAY WITH 60F OR GREATER LIKELY IN THE SNAKE RIVER CANYONS                  
BETWEEN MOUNTAIN HOME AND TWIN FALLS WHILE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE                 
LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. THIS FORECAST IS FOR AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE             
THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.                                                     
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE                     
RELATIVELY MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. MEAN TROUGH REMAINS IN THE GULF              
OF ALASKA WHILE LONGWAVE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS               
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL                
LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION            
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON                 
SUNDAY WILL BRING HIGHS ON SUNDAY 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH             
LOWS MONDAY MORNING 5-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS START TO SPREAD            
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING             
AS A COLD FRONTAL FEATURE SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. CHANCES FOR                
PRECIPITATION RETURN MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN                    
ZONES...SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE GULF OF                  
ALASKA LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST             
AS AN OPEN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...MULTIPLE WAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED            
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES             
WILL MOVE TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY                             
MORNING...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN                 
MOUNTAIN ZONES. THE REMAINING WAVES BECOME PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT             
EJECTS EASTWARD. WHILE TIMING MAY DIFFER SLIGHTLY...THE IDEA IS FOR             
THE TROUGH ITSELF TO PASS OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON ON THURSDAY MORNING             
AND IDAHO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIPITATION WITH IT.               
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING BEHIND THE TROUGH TO 3000-4000 FT MSL.             
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ID...NONE.                                                                      
OR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE                                                               
DISCUSSION...VM                                                                 
AVIATION.....JT                                                                 
PREV SHORT TERM...GS                                                            
PREV LONG TERM....DF                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   id                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
220 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...                                               
A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUDS AT VARIOUS LEVELS OVER THE REGION THIS                 
AFTN. EARLIER LOW CLOUDS OVER ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA HAVE ERODED...                 
THOUGH WE ARE LEFT WITH SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOC WITH                
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF KMCI. KLVX RADAR IS                
DETECTING THESE CLOUDS AROUND 15-20KFT ON THE VWP. BASED ON LATEST              
NAM FCST SOUNDINGS...WE EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE MUCH OF             
TONIGHT...VARYING BETWEEN PARTLY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY. DONT EXPECT CIGS            
TO GO MUCH BELOW 10KFT.                                                         
ASSOC WITH THIS UPPER WAVE...A WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRES PASSES                 
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR WINDS TO BACK              
TO S/SE THIS EVENING...TURNING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW            
MORNING AS THE FEATURE PASSES BY. THROUGH SAT MORNING...WINDS WILL              
BE LIGHT HOWEVER PRES GRADIENT DOES INCREASE SOMEWHAT SAT AFTN...               
LIKELY LEADING TO SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN             
10-15KTS OR SO.                                                                 
LAPSE RATES INCREASE QUITE A BIT SAT AFTN...LEADING TO THE                      
DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN CU...WITH HIGHEST COVERAGES OVER THE NE                  
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS/RUC ALL SPIT OUT               
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER OUR NE ZONES AFTER 18Z/SAT. WILL MENTION               
CHC OF SPRINKLES FOR SAT AFTN IN THIS AREA. GIVEN ENHANCED CLOUD                
COVER EXPECTED...WENT A FEW DEGREES UNDER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR OUR            
NE 1/2 OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE MEAN IN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2.                    
CS                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...                                                    
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN SYNC THRU THE PERIOD...WITH THE                 
INCREASING TREND IN BOTH MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT            
THRU SUNDAY. WILL BE USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM THRU THIS                 
PERIOD...TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WHERE NORMAL IS MIDDLE               
50S AND MIDDLE/UPPER 30S.                                                       
TROUGH STARTS TO WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH                
INCREASING LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER               
AND ADDED MENTIONED OF AREAS OF DRIZZLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PRECIP            
TYPE DATA SUGGEST THAT FROZEN PRECIP NOT LIKELY...WITH BL A BIT TOO             
WARM AND DRIER AIR IN THE ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH REGION. COLD DAY SUNDAY            
WITH TWO SEPARATE SHRTWVS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ONE IN THE LATE            
MORNING AND ANOTHER IN THE EVENING...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THRU            
THE ENTIRE DAY AND CARRIED CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO                 
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OMEGAS (LIFT) INCREASE WITH THE SHRTWV             
PASSAGE...YET MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITHIN THE NW FLOW...BUT SOME                 
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE TAPPED...SOME SCTD COLD RAIN              
DURING THE DAY...WITH SCTD AREAS OF A MIX WITH A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW             
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY                  
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AN UNDER A FEW              
HUNDREDTHS AS BEST...NO ACCUMS OF SNOW. H850 TEMPS DROP TO -7 OR -8C            
BY SUNDAY AFTN/EVE...HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW                
NORMAL. SLIGHT CLEARING FROM NW TO SE LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY              
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MS                  
VALLEY.                                                                         
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
MEDIUM AND EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE BIG               
PICTURE THE LAST WEEK...SOME OF THE FINER MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE                 
STILL UNCERTAIN BUT HAVE BECOME MUCH CLEARER EARLY IN THE PERIOD.               
WILL BE USING A BLEND OF THE EURO AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THIS              
SOLUTION SMOOTHES OUT SOME THE DISCONTINUITIES IN THE PROGRESSION OF            
THE ATLC COAST CUTOFF NEXT WEEK...AND HAS FAIRLY SOLID SUPPORT FROM             
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES...ALLOWING FOR A HIGH CONFIDENCE EXTENDED                
FORECAST.                                                                       
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...                                                           
MONDAY FINDS A +2.5 STD DEV RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTH INTO NC CANADA...AND A -3.5 STD DEV                   
ANOMALY CLOSE TO FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED                  
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE APP MTNS TOWARDS THE                      
ATLC COAST...H850 TEMPS ARE COLD AT -6 TO -8C...AND A VERY STRONG               
PACIFIC JET IS ROARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WHICH WILL               
HELP PRODUCE THE WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BREAK              
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST...WITH COLD TEMPS NEARLY 10-12                   
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF             
THE OHIO VALLEY...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING SLOWLY MOVES                   
EAST...AND H850 TEMPS WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY TO +2 TO +4 BY EARLY              
AFTERNOON TUESDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW LITTLE RH THROUGH THE                 
ENTIRE COLUMN AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AT WORST WITH TEMPS AROUND                 
NORMAL.                                                                         
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                     
EASY TRAVELING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN            
CONUS...OUTSIDE OF THE SE CONUS COAST ON TURKEY DAY EVE (WEDNESDAY)             
THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG +2.5 STD DEV RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE              
EAST FURTHER INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AGAINST THE DEEP CUT OFF LOW NEAR             
THE SE ATLC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL            
LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH FULL SUN FORECAST FOR THE DAY AND DRY AIR            
IN PLACE WHICH WOULD ALLOW BETTER HEATING...ONE OTHER FACTOR IS THE             
H850 TEMPS NEAR 8 TO 10 C BY WED AFTN. WARMING H850 TEMPS TOP OUT               
AROUND 10 TO 12C THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW               
SHOULD STRENGTHEN TURKEY DAY INTO FRIDAY...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES               
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. MEXMOS                
TRENDS ARE WARMER WED THRU FRI...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...OF             
WHICH BOTH ARE SKEWED OR BIASED BACK TOWARDS CLIMO LATER IN THE                 
FORECAST...SO WHEN THEY GO ABOVE NORMAL DAYS 5 TO 7 ITS USUALLY A               
GOOD THING TO ADD A FEW DEGREES THERE TO ACCOMMODATE THE KNOWN                  
BIAS...HAVE NOT DONE SO COMPLETELY HERE...BUT WILL CONSIDER IN THE              
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE IF THE TREND SUSTAINS ITSELF THRU THE NEXT FEW            
RUNS. AVERAGE TEMPS FOR LATE NOVEMBER ARE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AND            
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.                                                         
JUST A BIT FURTHER OUT...RIDGING LOOKS TO FLATTEN SOME BY THE                   
WEEKEND...WITH A WSW FLOW INTO THE REGION AND TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY            
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH...GOOD SUPPORT FROM BOTH              
THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AT H500 AND THE LATEST PNA AND EPO INDEXES                 
THROUGH THE NEXT 10-14 DAYS. AS THE PNA LOOKS TO STAY NEGATIVE AND              
THE EPO GOES FROM STRONGLY POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL BY THE LAST WEEK OF              
NOV AS PER CDC VALUES.                                                          
SCHOTT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1032 AM CST FRI NOV 17 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. HAVE                 
REDUCED AFTERNOON CLOUDS IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.              
HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AREAWIDE              
TO AGREE MORE WITH OBSERVE RED VALUES AND LATEST RUC MODEL.                     
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.                                        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TUL   66  37  57  33 /   0   0  10  10                                          
FSM   66  37  60  35 /   0   0  10  10                                          
MLC   69  37  60  35 /   0   0  10  10                                          
BVO   65  31  57  29 /   0   0  10  10                                          
FYV   62  31  55  28 /   0   0  10  10                                          
BYV   62  35  54  29 /   0   0  10  10                                          
MKO   66  36  57  33 /   0   0  10  10                                          
MIO   63  32  54  30 /   0   0  10  10                                          
F10   66  36  57  33 /   0   0  10  10                                          
HHW   68  41  65  39 /   0   0  10  10                                          
&&                                                                              
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...06                                                                 
LONG TERM....18                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ok