FXUS64 KMAF 290917
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
417 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SHORT TERM...
A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY DIFLUENT 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND 
MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  A PLETHORA OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES 
AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST 
AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE GENESIS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT COVERAGE WILL 
BE GREATEST THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE ISENTROPIC WARM 
ADVECTION IS GREATEST...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND 
ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OROGRAPHY COMBINES WITH 
HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW.

STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL 
RATES EXCEEDING 2.5 CM/HR.  THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH 
PRECIP WATER VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 3 CM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF 
OF THE CWFA.  QPF VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 25MM ACROSS THE 
WEST TO NEAR 150MM ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES.  WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN QUARTER THIS MORNING
SHIFTING WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT THIS TIME WE DO 
NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN
TIME AND SPACE TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH... 
CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE ALLOWED THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS 
WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IS GREATEST...AND WE WILL STRESS SAME IN 
THE UPCOMING HWO.  GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE 
OVERALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE THREAT OF 
SEVERE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.  TROPICAL FUNNELS MAY HOWEVER OCCUR 
BENEATH VIGOROUSLY GROWING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS 
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  WE EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES 
AND QPF TO FALL OFF AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL 
HEATING AND INCREASING DAVA ALOFT.  

WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO VEER OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.  TEMPERATURE 
EXTREMES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODULATED GREATLY BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO OR A BIT ABOVE 
YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF 
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS.  


.LONG TERM...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN 
STATES ON WEDNESDAY...IN BETWEEN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC AND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.   
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REGION 
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY/LIFT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH AXIS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS ACROSS THE WEST 
WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO 
GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMING 850 MB 
TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...MOST 
NOTEABLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WHERE AFTERNOON MAXES MAY RETURN 
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW 
MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED 
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH 
DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE 
TO MORE TYPICAL READINGS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING 
AROUND THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY 
TIME FRAME. THIS COULD HELP INCREASE POPS A BIT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF 
ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             82  62  88  68 /  50  50  30  20 
CARLSBAD NM               86  64  91  67 /  40  30  20  20 
DRYDEN TX                 85  68  90  71 /  50  50  30  20 
FORT STOCKTON TX          85  68  91  69 /  40  40  20  20 
GUADALUPE PASS TX         83  64  86  65 /  30  30  20  20 
HOBBS NM                  82  63  91  66 /  50  40  20  20 
MARFA TX                  82  57  86  58 /  30  30  20  20 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   84  66  89  69 /  50  50  30  20 
ODESSA TX                 85  66  90  69 /  50  40  20  20
WINK TX                   89  69  97  70 /  40  40  20  20 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

$$

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