####018001930####
FXUS64 KSJT 130958
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR OUR REGION 
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET...IS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTIES. THE CLOUDINESS IS LIMITING THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. THUS
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. 

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SETUP...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH INTRUSION OF MUCH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS.

WITH SUCH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED FOR OUR AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FROM OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 73  34  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANGELO 	 77  36  62  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JUNCTION 	 77  39  66  40  67 /   0   0  10   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



####018001927####
FXUS64 KSJT 130958
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
358 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED FOR OUR REGION 
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS...ASSOCIATED
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET...IS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR COUNTIES. THE CLOUDINESS IS LIMITING THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY. THUS
HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HIGHS COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS. 

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A WAVE AND EJECT EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS SETUP...SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH INTRUSION OF MUCH DRIER AIR AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS.

WITH SUCH WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDICATED FOR OUR AREA
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED THE POPS FROM OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE A DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  73  34  58  36  59 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANGELO  77  36  62  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JUNCTION  77  39  66  40  67 /   0   0  10   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



####018004127####
FXUS62 KMFL 130959
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
459 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A FOGGY NIGHT CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
LATEST NOCTURNAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING BANK OF DENSE FOG
SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...AND WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM EST. EXPECT FOG DECK TO LIFT/SCATTER BY MID TO
LATE MORNING...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER TODAY...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION.

HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE THAT SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL QUICKLY DEPART EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE...FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE MAINLAND. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SATURDAY...AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON FOR INTERIOR/EAST COAST LOCATIONS...WITH THREAT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS CONFINED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA...
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AND CONVERGENCE A BIT STRONGER ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE. MEANWHILE...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND EXPECT THAT FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM...WHICH IS PRESENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. APPEARS AS IF IT WILL
FINALLY WEAKEN THE GRIP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THAT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AS FRONT PASSES...WITH A MODIFIED CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LOWS.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM DENSE FOG AND ASSOCIATED MARINE HAZARDS THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AT
MOST IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST
SCEC CRITERIA IF NOT STRONGER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL CAP GULF STREAM SEAS AT 8 FEET AT
THIS TIME...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY TO NORTHEAST
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME...WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH
VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  64  83  62 / -  10 20 20 
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  65  83  64 / -  10 10 20 
MIAMI            81  66  83  65 / -  10 10 10 
NAPLES           78  61  78  61 / -  -  -  10 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
     FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-
     FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173-FLZ174.

AM...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS

####018003672####
FXUS64 KMEG 131000
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO SLIP
TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE MID SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW 40S
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH READINGS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING A WEAK SURFACE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z SAT AND THEN TO NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE BY
12Z SAT WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MID
SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS SPLIT
INTO TWO PARTS...ONE GOING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONE REMAINING TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE GULF
COAST. AS A RESULT OF REMAINING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL BE LIGHT. ATTM IT
LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT THOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING
WITH A LEFTOVER FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST NOON DUE TO DECENT LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BE NOTICEABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. 

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY....WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACE ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOK FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
MOST PLACES REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
SOUTH OF TUPELO. TEMPS WILL BE NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT 35 TO 40 AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TUESDAY
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANOTHER QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND FRONT SO
EXPECT MILD TEMPS AND IT WILL PROBABLY BE WINDY. COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS. 

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14/06Z WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 10000-15000 FT AGL AND THEN LOWERING TO AROUND
5000 FT AGL AFTER 14/01Z. KTUP WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WHERE 5000 FT
AGL CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 13/16Z AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER 14/03Z. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...GENERALLY
LESS THAN 7 KTS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING OVER 8 KNOTS AND DECREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  64  47  56  40 /  20  40  10  10 
MKL  63  45  53  36 /  10  40  10  10 
JBR  59  41  50  36 /  10  30  10  10 
TUP  63  51  60  40 /  30  60  20  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$