FXUS04 KWBC 311900
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 31 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 01/0000 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

DAY 1...

...NERN STATES...

THE PULLING OUT OF THE CANADIAN VORTEX AND SOME PROGRESSION
TO THE NCNTRL U.S./GTLKS MID/UPR LVL TROF WL ALLOW RAINS TO
SPREAD INTO THE NERN STATES THIS PD.   LRG SCALE LIFT WL BE
PROVIDED BY A WELL DEFINED S/WV AND HGT FALLS MOVG INTO NEW
ENG..ALG WITH A VRY FAVORABLE UPR DIFL PATN..ESP DURG THE 1ST
HALF OF THE PD.   THERE WL BE SOME ATLC INFLO OF MSTR ON
20+KTS OF SELY LLJ..WITH PWS FCST TO INCREASE TO GTR THAN 1
INCH AT LEAST INTO CSTL SXNS OF NEW ENG.   COMBO OF THIS LIFT
AND INCREASING MSTR SHLD SUPPORT A SWATH OF MSTLY MDT RAINS
THRU MUCH OF NY STATE..VT..NH..MA..CT AND RI..AND INTO SWRN
PTNS OF ME.   MDL QPFS WERE PRETTY SIMILAR HERE..SO NO BIG
CHGS MADE TO THEM.

...NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY...

HAVE LEANED A LTL MORE TWDS THE SLOER GFS SOLN HERE IN
DROPPING THE CLOSED LOW SSEWD OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST THIS PD.   SYS HAS A DECENT COLD POOL WITH IT..WHICH
IS SUPPORTING AND WL CONT TO SUPPORT INSTABILITY SHWRS THRU
THIS PD.   MSTR NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE..PWS JUST BLO 1 INCH..SO
KEPT RNFL AMTS GENLY ON THE LGT TO MDT SIDE FM ND/NERN SD
SEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN AND SRN WI.   SLGTLY HVIER GFS QPF
SOLN PREFERRED HERE.

...GULF CST STATES...

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND OBSERVED RNFL AMTS PAST
FEW HRS..IT'S OBVIOUS THE DRY ETA IS MISSING THE BOAT HERE.
EVEN THO THE GFS LOOKS TO BE AFFECTED BY SOME GRID SCALE
FEEDBACK PROBS..ITS WETTER FCST IS MUCH PREFERRED..GIVEN
THERE WL BE PWS AOA 2 INCHES ALG THE GULF CST REGION.  
SYNOPTIC FNTL BNDRY WL RMN UP THRU THE TN VLY MUCH OF THIS
PD..BUT MESOSCALE BNDRYS FM ONGOING CNVCTN SHLD FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CNVCTV DVLPMNT IN THE VRY MOIST..UNSTABLE AMS.  
MANUAL QPF WAS THUS A LTL LGTR THAN THE GFS QPF..WITH AN AXIS
OF HVY RAINS LIKELY ALG THE IMMEDIATE GULF CST AREA.

TERRY

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 
24HR QP VT 02/00Z
 0.01 540207 538198 534191 521183 518177 513171 502160 490166 
      487166 485168 485171 489178 493184 497190 507201 511207 
      512209 513213 513217 510222 505220 501212 497208 494209 
      491211 485212 481211 478212 476217 480220 487223 489224 
      492230 493237 495245 490237 485237 481239 479235 476231 
      473234 472238 474246 479253 484259 488265 491271 496278 
      500285 506290 510291 513290 
 0.01 503055 529063 534055 533044 528030 516002 503980 497960 
      489913 483876 479837 484810 496787 500767 500743 498732 
      494721 488707 483697 477686 469674 463664 456655 449648 
      442644 439643 435642 432643 427646 423649 418653 413658 
      412662 408672 406677 402678 394675 388675 383677 379680 
      375683 373686 366694 358711 346730 339743 330758 322773 
      316788 312792 307794 297796 288800 281802 270806 266808 
      267810 271813 275814 283816 287817 290821 291830 290849 
      283889 283920 288944 294967 298975 302981 307981 316976 
      322970 326963 331955 333950 335941 336935 335929 334919 
      336910 339899 340889 337874 335868 332861 330856 330850 
      330841 330820 333804 336785 343770 354757 363749 374743 
      383742 392743 399746 404749 406754 405758 402769 397785 
      390803 383819 377836 374846 372850 374854 377857 380858 
      382856 390848 402835 406833 409836 411842 405864 405884 
      403894 402906 401916 403929 405946 410957 420974 426981 
      434988 442995 447001 457013 467025 473033 480038 488045 
      494049 503055 
 0.01 517167 519162 517159 515157 514156 511154 509151 506148 
      503148 500149 500150 500151 501154 502156 505158 508160 
      511162 514163 516167 517167 
 0.01 356976 368955 371944 372935 372928 368921 362922 359925 
      349939 347945 340956 335964 334968 334972 336978 341982 
      346986 350986 352981 356976 
 0.25 478721 475713 471708 467706 460707 457710 454710 448702 
      443692 437682 432679 429678 425679 421683 419687 416694 
      412701 408705 404707 397703 392701 385699 383700 381703 
      381705 383712 385715 391722 396726 408735 414742 418748 
      422759 427768 431775 436781 441787 447795 452806 456813 
      461820 467827 471827 473823 473813 477769 480750 480739 
      480729 478721 
 0.25 489015 488006 486999 484993 484984 482976 480971 474962 
      468952 463941 458933 452925 446915 442913 444911 444908 
      443900 441896 438893 436898 436902 438908 441913 442917 
      444945 447961 451973 455984 460992 466003 469007 472010 
      489015 
 0.25 323819 323814 322809 319803 316804 310807 305813 301818 
      299827 297843 295857 294874 293889 294906 298923 299929 
      305932 308932 310935 307944 305951 305959 306962 309962 
      315957 319950 321944 323936 323933 323926 321921 321916 
      322909 323891 322875 322864 321855 321846 322837 323819 
 0.50 469751 466736 462733 459732 451733 448731 445726 439720 
      432717 425717 416721 413725 416731 420738 431757 437763 
      442770 448781 452789 457799 464801 467799 469794 470789 
      471783 471772 471759 469751 
 0.50 440706 438704 435701 431700 431704 433706 434706 438708 
      440707 440706 
 0.50 318821 318815 315812 310816 302829 300837 299845 297862 
      297879 298891 301901 303903 308905 311902 313899 316892 
      316883 317863 317845 318828 318821 
 1.00 311841 308840 305841 303844 302848 301851 301858 301861 
      301868 302872 303877 306878 308875 309869 310865 310861 
      311855 311851 312844 311841 
 1.50 304863 305865 306865 306863 306861 305856 304855 303857 
      303859 304861 304863  
 
$$