AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST. LOOKS            
KIKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.              
WILL ADJUST WORDING ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST LOW LEVEL                
TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS. WILL ADJUST                
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON MIXED OUT TEMPS. AS FOR PRECIP...LATEST                 
TRENDS AND RUC SUPPORT NO PRECIP UNTIL TONIGHT.                                 
MAY ALSO NEED TO ADJUST PRECIP FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIDDLE GA            
AND HOLD RAIN OFF UNTIL TUE.                                                    
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
 NOEL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
940 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
SHRA ROAMING ACROSS THE LMK FA ATTM AHEAD OF EWD MVG 500MB WAVE.                
CLUSTERS OF STG/SVR CONVECTION TRANSLATING ACROSS GULF COAST STATES,            
WHICH GIVEN THE 850MB WIND FLOW, MAY BE INHIBITING NWD MOISTURE                 
TRANSPORT INTO FA. SOME SCT TSRA NOW DEVELOPING NW OF BNA, WHERE                
HIGHER MUCAPES AND 3KM SHEARS EXIST. THEY APPEAR ELEVATED, BUT WE'LL            
KEEP AN EYE ON THEM. 18Z RUNS OF GFS/ETA SUGGEST A RELATIVE MINIMUM             
IN QPF ACROSS CEN KY, WITH A REL MAX OVER SRN IND AND ANOTHER DOWN              
INTO TN RIVER VALLEY INTO GULF STATES. PERIODS OF SHRA, WITH                    
EMBEDDED TS, LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC LOW TRACKS            
NEWD ACROSS FA, AS 3HR PRESSURE FALLS FROM 1Z ARE MAXIMIZED OVER CEN            
KY. PER 0Z RUC, MASS CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH NOSE OF LLJ OVERSPREADS             
LMK FA AFTER MIDNIGHT ESP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2, ALSO POINTING TOWARDS             
WIDESPREAD PCPN DEVELOPMENT.                                                    
.LMK...NONE.                                                                    
XXV                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
110 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
SHORT TERM CONCERN IS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT. 17Z                 
RADAR IMAGES INDICATED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER                
MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS. AT 17Z...SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED JUST WEST              
OF SGF. WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW INTO NORTHWEST               
MISSISSIPPI.                                                                    
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS SRN MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN             
NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT             
WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE OHIO RIVER EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM              
FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE            
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH                
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS             
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL                   
DEVELOPMENT. ETA/RUC INDICATE THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 03Z...PRECEDED BY STRONG MID LEVEL VERTICAL            
MOTION FIELDS. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER             
MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES THE LOUISVILLE AREA AROUND                  
12Z.                                                                            
LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE STORY ON TUESDAY               
AND WEDNESDAY. ETA/GFS INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB                 
PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY. ANY CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY               
GIVE WAY TO EXTENSIVE CU DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE               
HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE                 
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON                         
THURSDAY...AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY.               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SLOW              
MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 12Z GFS BRINGS THE FRONT                 
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z SATURDAY...WHILE THE 12Z               
SUNDAY EUROPEAN MODEL TIMING IS 24 HOURS FASTER. WILL CONTINUE WITH             
A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BASED ON THE 12Z GFS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES            
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.                                                         
EUROPEAN/GFS BOTH STALL THE FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT                
OVER ARKANSAS AND MOVES NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL EXTEND            
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                                             
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1012 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
.UPDATED...                                                                     
UPDATED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 2/5/6. STORM SYSTEM NEAR NOVA        
SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MARITIMES. RUC        
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER SHOWING SOME GUST             
POTENTIAL TO 45 MPH TODAY.                                                      
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN SKY COVER ALL ZONES AND REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP      
IN NORTHERN ZONES.                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES                 
TODAY. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS EASTERN MAINE BY MID MORNING.            
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON          
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION       
ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO         
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
NWP GUID IN DECENT AGREEMENT PER LATEST RADAR/SATL IMAGERY AS STACKED           
LOW THRU 250 MBS CHURNS THRU THE MARITIMES. HEAVIEST RAFL ATTM RIGHT OVER       
THE NERN 3RD OF THE CWFA W/DRYING STARTING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SW. RAFL         
ESTIMATES FROM 88D SHOWING 1-2IN/HR ACROSS THE NERN TIP OF ME. RAFL             
WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRES CONTS TO MOVE         
THRU THE MARITIMES. SATL IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE DRYING TREND WORKING ITS WAY     
NE TODAY. HERE GOES:                                                            
TODAY...WILL KEEP RA ALONG NERN CORRIDOR OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING AS      
WRAPAROUND WILL STILL AFFECT THIS AREA. FURTHER S...THINGS WILL DRY OUT.        
SHEARED VORTICITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWFA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME CLOUDS       
TO HANG ON A WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE N W/SKIES GOING PC FROM GNR-BGR-BHB.       
I WILL GO PC FOR THE N AFTER 18Z TIME FRAME. SHEARED VORTICITY WILL HELP TO     
KICK UP THE WINDS. MOMENTUM TRANSFER OFF THE ETA BUFKIT SHOWING 30 KTS BTWN     
500-1000 FT FROM MID-MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LATEST OBS         
INDICATING ALL GUID ESP ETA/FWC RUNNING HIGH BY 5 TO 10 KTS. SO...WITH THAT     
IN MIND...WILL GO WINDY W/20-30 MPH & MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH & STAY BLO        
ADVISORY CRIT. I WILL ADJUST MAXES UP A NOTCH. CAA NOT ALL IMPRESSIVE ON        
NW FLOW.                                                                        
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES FOR SRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA. MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE N           
TO START & THEN PC SKIES AS S/WV MOVES INTO THAT AREA LATE. THIS                
FEATURE SHOWING UP NICELY ON SATL IMAGERY OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE. CLOUD DECK      
HOWEVER APPEARS TO MID-HIGH LEVEL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LLVL MOISTURE. ALL      
MOS PUSHING FOR MINS NEAR 40 UP & LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. I LIKE THE DAYCREW/S      
THINKING OF KEEPING MINS A TAD WARMER W/CONTD GRADIENT.                         
TUESDAY...S/WV WILL HELP TO KEEP GRADIENT GOING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN           
HITTING NEAR 30 MPH IN SOME LOCALES ESP ACROSS DOWNSLOPE FAVORED AREAS.         
WILL GO AHEAD TO PUSH WINDY W/20-30 MPH. SOME LLVL CAA PROGGED BY THE           
GUID. DESPITE THE CAA...TEMPS SHOULD WARM TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV MOS W/STG          
JUNE SUN & DOWNSLOPE.                                                           
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND CHILLY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME            
SHELTERED AREAS HIT MID 30S (SCATTERED FROST). WINDS DECOUPLE AS HIGH PRES      
RIDGES OVER THE CWFA.                                                           
EXTENDED PD: LONG RANG PROGS SHOW HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU AT        
LEAST WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FOR DOWNEAST         
AREAS. THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS LOOK DRY. WEAKER GEM/ETA & EVEN ECMWF        
SHOWING WEAK LOW PRES PASSING THRU THE GULF OF ME ON THURSDAY. GFS LOOKS        
TOO AMPLIFIED ATTM. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE A THREAT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS     
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS UP ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWFA & WEAK LOW PRES         
RIDES ALONG IT.                                                                 
COASTAL WATERS: WINDS RUNNING AT STG SCA ATTM. THERE IS A CHC OF SEEING         
BRIEF PD OF GLW TODAY AS NW WINDS KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRES.            
THINK GALES WILL BE MINIMAL. WILL CARRY GUSTS TO 35 KTS. GRADIENT TO LET        
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON W/LOW PRES MOVING FURTHER AWAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP       
SEAS IN SCA RANGE INTO TUE DUE TO SWELL. THANKS TO GYX FOR GREAT                
COLLABORATION.                                                                  
.CAR...WIND ADVISORY TODAY ZONES 2/5/6                                          
       SCA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                                                  
JAH/TD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
ANOTHER TRANQUIL EVENING ACROSS FCST AREA. TEMPS ARE THE ONLY FCST              
CONCERN.                                                                        
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF VIGOROUS...CLEARLY-DEFINED SHORTWAVES                
MOVING ESE THRU CNTRL CONUS. FIRST IS OVER ERN IA AND SECOND IS OVER            
SE MT. FIRST SHORTWAVE IS SENDING CI SHIELD INTO THE UPPER LAKES                
WITH CLOSEST SHRA WELL TO THE S OVER SRN WI. WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS            
THE AREA AND VERY WEAK PRES GRADIENT...TYPICAL DAYTIME LAKE BREEZE              
SETUP HAS COLLAPSED WITH EVENING COOLING. RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER                
NIGHT WITH CALM OR VERY LGT WINDS UNDER 5 MPH.                                  
WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST AS RUC/ETA            
ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NE...INDICATED BY LOWERING OF PWAT. ETA               
LOWERED PWAT FROM ABOUT 0.5 INCHES THIS EVENING TO AROUND 0.3 LATE              
TONIGHT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL OF SFC TEMPS AND DWPTS DROPPING BLO              
CURRENT OBSERVED DWPT READINGS. THIS POTENTIAL PROBABLY WON'T BE                
REALIZED AS CI SHIELD WITH SLOW MOVING IA SHORTWAVE LINGERS.                    
ALTHOUGH THIN...THE CI SHOULD HAVE A VERY MINOR IMPACT ON TEMP DROP             
OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH SO TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING LOWER THAN CURRENT             
LOW END DWPT READINGS. BELIEVE GOING FCST MINS BTWN 37 AND 42 LOOK              
ON TRACK AND FROST WON'T BE A CONCERN. COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED                
OVER ERN FCST AREA...WHERE CI THINNEST AND AIRMASS A BIT DRIER.                 
UPDATE WILL FEATURE MINOR CHANGES TO WIND FCST AND A SLIGHT CHANGE              
TO SKY CONDITION OVER SRN COUNTIES.                                             
ROLFSON                                                                         
DISCUSSION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT FOR TUE THRU MON...                              
BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW LTL CHG IN AIRMASS/H85 TEMP TMRW VS TDAY. MIXING              
TO H75 AS OBSVD TDAY ON FCST SDNGS FOR TMRW YIELD MAX TEMPS OVR                 
INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING IN 70 TO 75 RANGE. ONLY CHG MAY BE              
SLGTLY HIER ENE SFC-H925 FLOW FCST BY BOTH GFS/ETA...WHICH WOULD                
ENHANCE LK MODERATION AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE COOLING S OF ESC AND W             
OF MQT NR LK SUP. MODELS SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF LK BREEZE CNVGC AND             
WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE... NO MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF LLVL                   
CNVGC/FCST INVRN HGT ARND H75-8 AND KINX < 10 WARRANT REMOVAL OF                
ISOLD -SHRA...WITH JUST SCT CU DVLPG INLAND OF LK BREEZES. WITH ANY             
DIURNAL CU FADING AWAY AT SUNSET AND MOCLR SKIES TUE NGT WITH                   
SIMILAR PWAT/FVRBL RADIATION CONDITIONS...XPCT NR PERSISTENCE ON MIN            
TEMPS. SIMILARLY LTL CHG FCST BTWN TUE AND WED WITH INLAND TEMPS                
LOOKING 70 TO 75 FOR MIXING TO H75. ENE FLOW IS FCST SLGTLY WEAKER              
WITH SFC RDG DVLPG RIGHT OVHD. SO MORE EVEN LK BREEZE COOLING WITH              
LESS MODERATION IN FVRD NE LK BREEZE AREAS THAN ON TUE.                         
ETA BCMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS/CNDN  TRYING TO PUSH DVLPG              
UPR TROFFING IN THE NRN PLAINS WED E INTO THE WRN LKS WED NGT/THU.              
BUT CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS FOR SLOWER EWD                
PROGRESSION...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS/CNDN MODELS. GFS                  
ADVERTISES ANOTHER GOOD RADIATION NGT WED NGT WITH RDG AND PWAT                 
UNDER 0.5 INCH AXIS OVR CWA. DRY AIRMASS/RDGING HOLD IN PLACE AGAIN             
THU...BUT THEN A RETURN SW FLOW WITH INCRSG PWAT IN ADVANCE OF                  
SLOWLY MOVG SHRTWV TAKES HOLD THU NGT. INCRSG SWLY FLOW/HI CLD WL               
HOLD MINS THU NGT HIER THAN THE NXT FEW NGTS. H85 TEMPS ON THU ABOUT            
2C HIER THAN ON WED...SO ADJUSTED INLAND FCST MAX UP ACCORDINGLY.               
WITH MORE OF A WNW FLOW FCST...XPCT LESS LK MODERATION OF TEMPS.                
00Z EXTENDED MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND 06Z/12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER            
IN PROGRESSING THE FCST TROFFING IN THE UPR MIDWEST EWD LATE THIS               
WEEK. HAVE BROUGHT IN SHRA/TSRA ON FRI AS MAIN UPR TROF/UPR JET                 
FORCG GRDLY EDGES EWD. SHRA CHCS WL CONT ON SAT/SUN WITH LINGERING              
LO HGTS/LO MSLP/CYC FLOW...BUT THEN A DRYING TREND ON MON WITH GFS              
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING RISING HGTS/SFC RDGING. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO               
NORMAL THRU THE PD...WITH MAX TEMPS LOWEST DUE TO CLD COVER.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
KC                                                                              
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1010 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
...INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LOWERED TUESDAY HIGHS...                        
COMPARING MODEL QPF TO ACTUAL RAINFALL AREA AS OF 00Z THE GFS IS ON             
TRACK...EVEN WITH ALL THAT DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS!  MSAS DATA AND SFC            
DATA SHOW THE SFC LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN ANY OF THE OPERATIONAL                 
MODELS FORECAST AT 00Z TOO.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE                 
CLOUD OVER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AT 00Z.  IN FACT...COMPARING SOUNDING            
AND MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS (BTL TO CGI) TO ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS AT              
00Z IT WOULD SEEM THERE IS MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN IS            
SHOWN ON THE MODELS BETWEEN PIA AND CHI SINCE RAIN IS REACHING THE              
GROUND THERE. LOOKING AT THE ETA/GFS FGEN FORECAST NEAR 700 MB FOR              
TUESDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 24Z THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN LOWER              
MICHIGAN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 96.  I BELIEVE THAT WHILE THE GFS IS TO            
DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW...AND IS A TAD FARTHER NORTH WITH THE                 
RAINFALL THEN THE RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE... AN AVERAGE OF THE ETA AND             
GFS QPF IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE 21Z FSL            
RUC (OUT TO 48HRS).  GIVEN ALL OF THAT... THERE IS TO MUCH                      
CLOUDINESS FOR THE TEMPERATURE TO FALL MUCH TONIGHT... ANYWHERE IN              
THE CWA.  SO I INCREASED THE LOWS ABOUT 10F.  ALSO THE ETA AND RUC              
(FLS RUC) SHOW HIGHS ONLY 50S OVER MOST OF SRN MI TUESDAY.  GIVEN               
THE STRONG NE WIND THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF LWR AND THE                
DENSE MID LEVEL CLOUDS... EVEN OVER CNTRL LOWER... HARD TO IMAGINE              
TEMPERATURES GETTING OUT OF THE 50S WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE RAINING             
OVER FROM INTERSTATE 94 SOUTH. EVEN WHERE IT DOES NOT RAIN THE                  
CLOUDS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH THAT THE SUN WILL DO LITTLE GOOD. HIGHS             
IN THE GRR TO LAN AREA WILL BE LUCKY TO GET TO 62F.  SO I DECREASED             
HIGHS OVER MOST OF THE CWA 5 TO 10F TOO. I LEFT THE QPF ALONG... BUT            
I BELIEVE A STRONG LIKELY WOULD BE WARRANTED IN THE JXN TO AZO AREA             
TUESDAY.                                                                        
ZONES ALREADY OUT.                                                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
900 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
SATELLITE IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER                  
SOUTHEAST MI IS CAUSING WARMING OF IR TOPS AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH PIVOTS INTO THE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH CLOUDS OVER                   
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA HAVE THICKENED ENOUGH...AND ARE            
LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY                
WORDING REST OF NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION OF                     
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL...BASED ON PRESENT MODEL TRENDS SHOWING                      
SLUGGISHNESS IN SATURATING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. LATEST RUC...CANADIAN            
AND 18Z ETA SHOW DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BELIEVE GFS PROBABLY                 
OVERDONE AS PER QPF. 18Z ETA BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY EVEN FROM THE              
12Z ETA.                                                                        
FULL AFTERNOON DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                            
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER                           
IOWA...BECOMING CUTOFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW INTO A REX-ISH BLOCK WITH             
SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS             
LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH DRY AIRMASS WITH MAINLY CIRRUS AND A FEW CU               
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OVER               
FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...WITH LOW MOVING INTO                  
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.                                                              
MAIN QUESTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE REVOLVE AROUND PRECIP                 
CHANCES AS THE IOWA LOW MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY               
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. ETA HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH               
THE LOW...BRINGING IT FROM MISSOURI LOW INTO THE OHIO                           
VALLEY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. IN ADDITION WITH THE BLOCKY               
PATTERN...THEN TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION DOWN EVEN                 
MORE. ALL THIS LEADS TO AN INTERESTING FORECAST...ONE THAT LOOKS                
WETTER THAN BEFORE.                                                             
CURRENTLY VIS SATELLITE SHOWS MAINLY CIRRUS OVER LOWER                          
MICHIGAN...AND NOT ALL THAT THIN TO BEGIN WITH. GOOD CU FIELD ACROSS            
NORTHERN LOWER/UPPER MICHIGAN...BUT JUST PANCAKE-ISH CLOUDS TO THE              
SOUTH. SHOULD BE ABLE TO START THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR...THEN WITH             
INCREASING CLOUDS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE              
AREA...THICKEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. ETA/GFS TRY TO BRING PRECIP            
IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. GOOD DRY AIR            
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OVERCOME...IN ADDITION TO THE               
GENERAL SLOWDOWN TO THE PATTERN. DESPITE HAVING A VERY SIMILAR                  
AIRMASS AND AGAIN A RATHER LIGHT WIND FIELD...THE CLOUDS AROUND                 
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.                           
UPPER WAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH              
SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO. ETA/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW               
SOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY /LONGER IN             
THE ETA/...BUT ALSO INDICATE VERY STRONG LIFT. MAY BE ENOUGH TO                 
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR...AND WILL ADD A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE             
SOUTHERN CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY              
WITH CLOUDS AROUND...BUT MORESO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE                
PRECIP. GFS LOOKS TOO COLD WITH TEMPS NOT CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S.              
SHOULD HAVE THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME REBOUND ESPECIALLY THIS CLOSE TO             
THE SOLSTICE...AND WILL ONLY CUT BACK HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS             
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA.                                                          
UPPER WAVE WOBBLES AROUND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH                      
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH HOLDS BACK WEST OF THE                   
APPALACHIANS...SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH AND EAST INTO LAKE                         
ERIE/SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE CWA...WILL               
ADD CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST CWA.                 
BETTER MOISTURE MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WORKS IN FROM THE EAST            
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ITSELF...ENOUGH TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN            
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA /GENERALLY PHN-TTF/.                       
SYSTEM SLOWLY CLEARS EASTWARD BY THURSDAY...WITH UPPER/SURFACE                  
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TREND WITH THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN              
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...GOING FROM UNDER THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD                 
FRONT 12Z/01...TO JUST AHEAD OF IT 00Z/02...TO UNDER THE RIDGE AHEAD            
OF 12Z/02. THIS TREND SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKED PROGRESSION            
TO THE UPPER PATTERN...AND MAY CONTINUE IN FUTURE RUNS. FOR NOW WILL            
PULL PRECIP FROM THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT PERIODS...HOLDING THE              
NEXT COLD FRONT OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.                                               
FOR THE EXTENDED...BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS                
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SWINGING               
INTO THE REGION. GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE                   
EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION...WITH                       
DIFFERENCES EMERGING BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND INTERNALLY BETWEEN                 
DIFFERENT RUNS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING                 
THROUGH THE TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS A DECENT SHOT OF ENERGY            
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AROUND 00Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME FLAVOR OF            
A SURFACE REFLECTION /STRONGER IN THE GFS/ETA-XX...WEAKER IN THE                
CANADIAN...SOMEWHAT FASTER IN THE 12Z/01 ECMWF/. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS               
ALSO INDICATE THE GENERAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...BUT                
DIFFERENCES MAINLY RELATED TO AMPLITUDE BUT ALSO QUESTIONS AS TO                
TIMING. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON                       
FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH AT THE DIURNALLY                 
FAVORABLE TIME FOR DESTABILIZATION. LI/SHOWALTER/LAPSE RATES SUPPORT            
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER FOR THE DAY. MAIN FRONT CLEARS                   
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH/UPPER WAVE                   
HOLDING BACK UNTIL SATURDAY. INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS WITH              
THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOWER POP AND A MENTION OF            
THUNDER AS WELL. SURFACE HIGH THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION               
CLOSER TO SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A SLOWER                      
PROGRESSION AND HINTS AND CARRYING PRECIP OVER INTO SUNDAY                      
MORNING...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE               
THE CASE. ETA-XX MUCH COLDER THAN OTHER WITH THERMAL TROUGH SUNDAY              
NIGHT /DROPPING 850MB TEMPS DOWN NEAR -2C AT 168H/00Z MONDAY/ WITH              
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. GFS/ECMWF ARE BOTH WARMER...CLOSER TO 6C.                 
WITH RUN-TO-RUN QUESTIONS...WILL PLAY TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THE               
CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER WITH SOME DEGREE OF A THERMAL TROUGH AND              
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO              
BE THE COOLEST BEFORE SOME MODERATION INTO NEXT WEEK.                           
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
BRAVENDER                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
250 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW CWA DOMINATED BY DRY NW            
FLOW ALF BTWN A DEEP TROF IN ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A MEAN RDG              
IN THE W. PATTERN HELD UP BY HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING IN THE                      
NATLANTIC/NW EUROPE. SFC-7 RDG AXIS UNDER NW FLOW ALF STRETCHES FM              
FAR NW ONTARIO SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY. LOCAL 12Z SDNGS SHOW A                   
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WITH WELL MIXED PBL UP TO SUBSIDENCE              
INVRN H7-75. FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV MOVG E THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE             
S OF UPR RDG...AND CWA ON NRN PERIPHERY OF HI CLD SHIELD. OTRW...               
JUST FEW-SCT CU POPPING UP OVR THE CWA THIS AFTN WITH SFC DWPTS                 
GENERALLY 37-45. ANOTHER FAIRLY STRG SHRTWV HAS MOVED INTO THE PAC              
NW AND IS BEATING DOWN THE RDG IN THE NRN ROCKIES. 12HR H3 HGT FALLS            
IN EXCESS OF 100M OBSVD WITH SHRTWV PASSAGE.                                    
FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE TEMPS TNGT...THEN WHETHER OR NOT             
TO RETAIN GOING MID WEEK PCPN CHCS.                                             
12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SFC-H5 RDGING REMAINING               
DOMINANT OVR THE UPPER GRT LKS WITH AXIS OF DRY AIR/PWAT AOB 0.5                
INCH REMAINING IN PLACE ACRS CWA. CNTRL PLAINS SHRTWV PROGGED TO                
DRIFT SLOWLY E THRU THE OH VALLEY DURG THIS TIME WHILE NRN ROCKIES              
SHRTWV DRIFTS ESE RIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SYS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR             
CWA IS A PCPN-FREE PD TNGT INTO AT LEAST WED NGT...WITH ETA FCST                
SHOWING RH < 30 PCT THRU MOST OF THE TROP AND HINTING AT NOTHING                
MORE THAN DIURNAL CU DVLPMNT...SO HAVE PULLED PCPN FM FCST MON                  
NGT-WED NGT. UNDER XPCTD CLR-PCLY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR LARGE                   
DIURNAL CHGS IN TEMP...WITH LK BREEZES FRMG DURG THE DAY UNDER                  
RDG/WEAK PRES GRADIENT.                                                         
AS FOR TEMPS TNGT...WISPY CI ON NRN PERIPHERY OF SHRTWV MOVG THRU               
THE OH VALLEY WL HAVE LTL IMPACT ON RADIATION LOSS WITH SLACK PRES              
GRADIENT/LGT WNDS SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATION CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH               
SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN A FEW DEGREES HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...FCST PWAT BY            
DAWN TUE IS LWR THAN THIS MRNG. SO WL GO PERSISTENCE ON MINS. SINCE             
SFC DWPTS HIER THAN YDAY AND NO RPRTS OF FROST THIS MRNG...WL NOT               
INCLUDE FROST IN FCST FOR TNGT AS DEW FORMATION MORE LIKELY THAN                
FROST...WITH LATENT HEAT OF CONDENSATION PREVENTING SFC TEMP FM                 
FALLING MUCH FURTHER ONCE DWPT IS REACHED. BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW LTL CHG            
IN AIRMASS/H85 TEMP TMRW VS TDAY. MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD TDAY ON                
FCST SDNGS FOR TMRW YIELD MAX TEMPS OVR INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK                 
COOLING IN 70 TO 75 RANGE. ONLY CHG MAY BE SLGTLY HIER ENE SFC-H925             
FLOW FCST BY BOTH GFS/ETA...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LK MODERATION AND               
PROVIDE A BIT MORE COOLING S OF ESC AND W OF MQT NR LK SUP. MODELS              
SHOW LTL IN THE WAY OF LK BREEZE CNVGC AND WITH DRIER ATMOSPHERE...             
NO MODEL GENERATES QPF. LACK OF LLVL CNVGC/FCST INVRN HGT ARND H75-8            
AND KINX < 10 WARRANT REMOVAL OF ISOLD -SHRA...WITH JUST SCT CU                 
DVLPG INLAND OF LK BREEZES. WITH ANY DIURNAL CU FADING AWAY AT                  
SUNSET AND MOCLR SKIES TUE NGT WITH SIMILAR PWAT/FVRBL RADIATION                
CONDITIONS...XPCT NR PERSISTENCE ON MIN TEMPS. SIMILARLY LTL CHG                
FCST BTWN TUE AND WED WITH INLAND TEMPS LOOKING 70 TO 75 FOR MIXING             
TO H75. ENE FLOW IS FCST SLGTLY WEAKER WITH SFC RDG DVLPG RIGHT                 
OVHD. SO MORE EVEN LK BREEZE COOLING WITH LESS MODERATION IN FVRD NE            
LK BREEZE AREAS THAN ON TUE.                                                    
ETA BCMS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS/CNDN  TRYING TO PUSH DVLPG              
UPR TROFFING IN THE NRN PLAINS WED E INTO THE WRN LKS WED NGT/THU.              
BUT CONSIDERING BLOCKING PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS FOR SLOWER EWD                
PROGRESSION...HAVE OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS/CNDN MODELS. GFS                  
ADVERTISES ANOTHER GOOD RADIATION NGT WED NGT WITH RDG AND PWAT                 
UNDER 0.5 INCH AXIS OVR CWA. DRY AIRMASS/RDGING HOLD IN PLACE AGAIN             
THU...BUT THEN A RETURN SW FLOW WITH INCRSG PWAT IN ADVANCE OF                  
SLOWLY MOVG SHRTWV TAKES HOLD THU NGT. INCRSG SWLY FLOW/HI CLD WL               
HOLD MINS THU NGT HIER THAN THE NXT FEW NGTS. H85 TEMPS ON THU ABOUT            
2C HIER THAN ON WED...SO ADJUSTED INLAND FCST MAX UP ACCORDINGLY.               
WITH MORE OF A WNW FLOW FCST...XPCT LESS LK MODERATION OF TEMPS.                
00Z EXTENDED MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND 06Z/12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER            
IN PROGRESSING THE FCST TROFFING IN THE UPR MIDWEST EWD LATE THIS               
WEEK. HAVE BROUGHT IN SHRA/TSRA ON FRI AS MAIN UPR TROF/UPR JET                 
FORCG GRDLY EDGES EWD. SHRA CHCS WL CONT ON SAT/SUN WITH LINGERING              
LO HGTS/LO MSLP/CYC FLOW...BUT THEN A DRYING TREND ON MON WITH GFS              
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING RISING HGTS/SFC RDGING. TEMPS WL REMAIN BLO               
NORMAL THRU THE PD...WITH MAX TEMPS LOWEST DUE TO CLD COVER.                    
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
ONLY FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE TEMPS AND WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY              
AFTN SHOWERS.                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALF.                 
PLAINS SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING TOWARD THE SE...AND PCPN WITH THIS IS               
ONLY REACHING AS FAR N AS IA/SRN MN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR. SOME              
THIN HIGH CLOUDS HAVE EXTENDED ACROSS THE MI/WI BORDER...BUT                    
OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY AT 14Z...W/ TEMPS GENERALLY IN MID 50S TO             
LOWER 60S AFTER A REASONABLY COOL MORNING.                                      
AS H8 TEMPS REMAIN NEAR 7-8C...WITH GOOD MIXING (MESOETA/RUC SHOW               
AFTN MIXING TO ABOVE 800MB)...SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING LOWER             
70S INLAND TODAY. W/ A NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK FLOW              
ALL THE WAY THROUGH 500MB...DAY WILL BE LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY                
LAKE BREEZES. IN FACT...ALREADY SEEING THESE FELT ALONG BOTH                    
LAKESHORES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK.                      
AS FAR AS AFTN SHRA GOES...AGREE WITH MID SHIFT THAT MID LEVEL CAP              
WILL NOT ALLOW THEM. THOUGH LLVL INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTN...             
CAPE VALUES WILL BE INHIBITED BY WARM LAYER AT 650-700MB. THOUGH THE            
RUC DOES GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE PCPN BY 21Z...BELIEVE THIS IS                 
OVERDONE AS SFC DEWPTS ARE FORECAST IN UPPER 40S...AND EVEN THIS                
WOULD NOT BREAK THE CAP. A MORE REASONABLE 72/44 (PER MODIFIED                  
MESOETA SOUNDINGS) YIELD UNDER 200J/KG OF CAPE WITH LIS APPROACHING             
ZERO. ALL OF THIS SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHRA EVEN WITH                
SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE FURTHER              
DIMINISHED BY ANY HIGH CLOUD AROUND. SO...HAVE NO DOUBT THAT AFTN CU            
WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH TOPS HALTED AT AROUND 10KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE             
TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 60S...SO SHOULD START SEEING THAT CU BY AROUND             
NOON.                                                                           
WILL SEND MINOR UPDATE SHORTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ONSET OF LAKE                     
BREEZES...AND TO MENTION SOME AFTN CLOUDS INLAND.                               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2003                                                     
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER                   
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO ATTENTION FOCUSES ON MESOSCALE PICTURE              
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
CIRRUS SHIELD W/SW OF FORECAST AREA IS THINNING AS IT PUSHES DEEPER             
INTO DRY NW FLOW REGIME OVER LAKES...SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON               
SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...SMOKE FROM DISTANT FOREST FIRES                
REMAINS SUSPENDED ALOFT PER HAZY APPEARANCE OF SKY...BUT THIS WILL              
HAVE NO IMPACT ON INSOLATION. MEANWHILE...12Z APX SOUNDING DEPICTS              
STEEPER 850-700 MB LAPSE RATES/MORE 850-700 MB MOISTURE THAN WAS THE            
CASE SUNDAY MORNING...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED                        
COVERAGE/DEPTH OF CUMULUS FIELD AS COMPARED TO CUMULUS THAT MANAGED             
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS WILL HAVE MINOR IMPACT ON               
SKY COVER IN SOME AREAS...LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL ENHANCE                  
CUMULUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS              
INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF                  
NORTHERN LOWER MI (INLAND FROM LAKE HURON).                                     
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS WHERE               
CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...LIBERAL             
MODIFICATION OF 12Z RUC 40 SOUNDINGS (USING 70-75 TEMPS/DEWPOINTS IN            
THE MID 40S) YIELD CAPES AS HIGH AS 100-200 G/KG AND LIS AS LOW AS              
-2 BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...06Z MESOETA/12Z RUC40 PRODUCE A BUT OF             
PRECIP IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.                   
HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S...AND MID                
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION/CAP DEPICTED BY 12Z AREA RAOBS IS                    
STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY RUC40. THUS...RAISED GRIDDED POPS TO 10%              
IN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE AREAS...BUT CANNOT YET JUSTIFY HIGHER                
POPS/MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STAY TUNED.                   
FINALLY...CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS/WINDS LOOK GOOD.                               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED AVIATION SECTION                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
312 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON               
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR JOPLIN...IN AREA OF DECENT                    
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO                
EASTERN OK...WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DECK OF STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET WILL BE THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR IFR                
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS WILL                   
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...WITH PATCHY             
DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT.  STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT               
ABOVE VFR THRESHOLDS...EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EAST OF LOW THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST              
RUC HAS THE SURFACE LOW MEANDERING INTO SOUTHEAST MO BY 06Z. DONT               
EXPECT TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW              
KEEPING STRATUS DECK IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO             
TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY DRIZZLE IN FORECAST ALSO. COLD AIR              
ADVECTION BEHIND SURFACE LOW NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...SO THINK LOW             
TO MID 50S STILL LOOK OKAY FOR MINS TONIGHT. ALSO KEPT MAINLY MID TO            
UPPER 60S GOING FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW.                                         
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                                    
ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH                
WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE            
AREA. WILL MAINLY HINGE PRECIP FORECAST ON GOING SURFACE                        
PROGGS...WITH BEST CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND                
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO EASTERN MO AND LEE TROUGH SETS UP            
WITH FAIRLY RAPID MOISTURE RETURN. WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO              
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING IT LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE THE             
STRONGER DISTURBANCES WILL CLIP THE AREA AND DRAG A COLD FRONT FROM             
THE KANSAS BORDER INTO EASTERN MO.                                              
.REST OF THE EXTENDED...                                                        
ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS GENERATE ANOTHER TROUGH CLOSE TO OUR AREA            
ON SUNDAY...BEFORE BUILDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM              
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL GO AHEAD AND INTRODUCE                
CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AND LEAVE MONDAY DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES                
WILL SHOW SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN EXTENDED ALSO.                             
ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN PUBLISHED.                                                  
.SGF...                                                                         
.MO...NONE                                                                      
.KS...NONE                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TERRY/CRAMER                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1137 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
BOTH MESO ETA AND GFS ARE OUT TO LUNCH ON QPF PROGS THIS AFTERNOON.             
RUC HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH MUCH LESS PRECIP                  
FORECASTED.  MAIN COMPLEX OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXITING              
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ANALYZED ALONG            
THE OKLAHOMA - KANSAS BORDER JUST WEST OF PARSONS AND COFFEYVILLE.              
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE RED RIVER            
NEAR ARDMORE.  WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S                 
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUSPECT THERE WILL BE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE              
BOUNDARY APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MO.                                               
WITH THE PERSISTENT PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM AND RADAR                 
TRENDS SUGGESTING LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS                      
UPSTREAM...FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.  MORNING              
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OVER               
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO               
HANDLE THE NEXT BAND OF SLIGHT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE            
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI HAS BEEN            
LIFTED.                                                                         
WARM FRONT IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT OVER THE ARKANSAS                   
TERRAIN.  STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM PRESSURE ADVECTION ACROSS                 
ARKANSAS LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CLOUD               
COVER OVER MISSOURI.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR            
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGHER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND                
CAPES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS WHERE             
POCKETS OF CLEARING OCCUR.  AFTERNOON SOUNDING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.              
UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS IN ALL ZONES AND TO REMOVE               
THE FLOOD WATCH HEADLINE FROM WESTERN ZONES.                                    
.SGF...                                                                         
.MO...NONE                                                                      
.KS...NONE                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CRAMER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

NORTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT                                             
845 PM MDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS VORTICITY MAX MOVING                  
THROUGH E MT VERY WELL THIS EVENING. WELL-DEPICTED BY RUC...MUCH                
BETTER THAN 18Z MESOETA. 00Z MESOETA BETTER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGH.               
AIRMASS UNSTABLE...AND NOT THAT MOIST...BUT MOISTER IN OUR EAST.                
MOST LIFT AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX AND AHEAD OF WEAK COLD             
FRONT MOVING THROUGH AREA. WITH LOSS OF STABILITY...SHOWERS HAVE                
BECOME ISOLATED...THUNDERSTORMS ENDED. UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE                  
NW AND MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CYPRESS HILLS CANADA              
TO MOVE SE ACROSS NE MT OVERNIGHT. MODELS DON'T SHOW MUCH UPPER                 
SUPPORT TO THESE AND WITH LOSS OF STABILITY EXPECT JUST MOSTLY                  
CLOUDY SKIES AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS LIGHT IN EAST...BUT               
HAVE PICKED UP OVER WEST HALF OF CWA BEHIND COOL FRONT AND                      
INCREASING NW SURFACE GRADIENTS. UPDATES WILL BE FOR MORE CLOUDCOVER            
AND TO FRESHEN UP POPS. MOST LOWS FORECAST LOOK GOOD...ZORTMAN                  
DOWN TO 46 8PM THOUGH. SIMONSEN                                                 
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THRU MONDAY                                              
SHARP UPPER TROF IS FIRMLY IMPLANTED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO                
START OFF THIS PERIOD. E MT WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE TROF AXIS WITH             
NORTHERLY FLOW WORKING EAST INTO THE AREA (SURFACE PRESSURE SNAPSHOT            
AT THIS TIME SHOWS A HIGH OVER ALBERTA AND A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW             
NEAR IOWA). SURFACE LOW QUICKLY BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED                      
FRIDAY...KEEPING THE UPPER TROF DEEP TO OUR EAST. NORTHERLY UPPER               
FLOW PUSHES A DISTURBANCE TO OUR SW BY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO               
SHOW WRAP AROUND MOISTURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA (WHILE AN ALBERTA                
SURFACE HIGH PROVIDES UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW). THEREFORE...BUMPED POPS            
UP AND KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN FOR SATURDAY. BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING              
OVER THE EASTERN STATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE TROF INTO THE AREA FOR             
AT LEAST SATURDAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE               
AREA SUNDAY AND MAYBE MONDAY FOR DRIER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A                  
LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL. JAMBA                                                  
KGGW TRR 047/063 044/055 042/055 82232754                                       
     RWBE 043/063 045/067 046/072 047/076 7643330000                            
KGDV TRR 049/066 041/061 042/061 82232554                                       
     RWBE 043/060 045/066 044/072 045/076 7644330000                            
.GGW...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1000 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                      
SFC RDG TO OUR NW WL MV E DURING THE DAY TDY AND BE OFFSHR BY SS.               
THIS WL ALLW MS SKIES TO CONT TDY. WNDS WL CONT ARND 10 KTS OVR THE             
WTRS THIS AFTN...ALTHO RUC DOES SHO SUM HIER WNDS IN SRN WTRS DUE TO            
TITER THAN FCST GRAD. WONT BUY INTO IT. WL PIDDLE WI WNDS AND TEMPS             
BUT NO MJR CHGS XPCTD AS CRRNT FCST LUKS GUD.                                   
.MHX...NONE                                                                     
CGG-G                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
300 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
MUCH UNCERTAINITY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FCST THIS UPCOMING WEEK.                
MODELS ADVERTISE OVERALL PATTERN CORRECTLY SINCE LATE LAST WEEK AND             
TODAY HANDLE THE 50H FEATURES RATHER SIMILARLY.  BUT DIFFERENCES                
ARRIVE BTWN ETA/GFS AND OTHER MODELS REGARDING MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH            
OF SURFACE TROUGH EAST THRU ERN ND/NW MN TUES NIGHT/WED AM.  ATTM               
BELIEVE 12Z ETA TOO FAST AND STRONG WITH SFC TROUGH IN PUSHING IT               
EAST THRU AREA TUES NIGHT AND WITH STRONG DRYING TREND ON                       
WEDNESDAY.  CANADIAN/MM5/UKMET GENERALLLY FOLLOW GFS WITH WEAK                  
TROUGH HANGING UP OVER FCST AREA AND GENERAL WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE               
THRU WED. FCST GRIDDS TRIED TO FOLLOW THIS TREND.                               
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
50H SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SRN MN/NRN IA IS THROWING BACK MOISTURE              
INTO ERN SD WITH S-SE SFC FLOW BRINGING AREA OF 50+ DEW PTS UP INTO             
FAR SRN AND WRN ND...GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A MOT-FAR-AXN                  
LINE.  PIECE OF ENERGY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ROTATING NORTH INTO SE ND            
CAUSING AREA OF -RA...WITH MOVEMENT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY.  ISOLD              
SHOWER MAYBE THUNDER DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN WHERE TEMPS REACHED               
THE LOWER 70S AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 50H TEMPS PREVAILED.  LOOKS LIKE              
PCPN WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS EVENING WITH RUC/ETA/GFS SHOWING IT            
REACHING GFK AREA BY 03Z.  KABR SHOWING DRYING ALREADY IN NE SD WITH            
DECREASE IN ECHOES.  FCST GOES FOR EVENING SHOWERS SE ND AND LATE               
EVENING SHOWERS IN NE ND AND SCT TSRA IN WCNTRL MN THIS EVENING.                
DRY FOR NOW OVER TVF/BDE/BJI AREAS.  DONT THINK MUCH WILL HANG                  
AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT SO DID DROP PCPN MENTION AFTER 05Z.  EVE SHIFT             
WILL DEVELOP BETTER FEEL FOR WHERE PCPN POTENTIAL WILL BE OVERNIGHT             
AND CAN ADD IF NEEDED.                                                          
.LONGER TERM...                                                                 
SFC TROUGH NOW IN ERN MT WILL SET UP OVER CNTRL ND BY MID TUESDAY               
AFTN.  NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE WILL EXIST FOR THUNDER DEVELOPMENT             
OVER CNTRL/WRN ND TUESDAY...WITH FAR WRN CWFA GETTING INTO THE                  
ACTION POSSIBLY TUES AFTN.  NEW SWODY2 DID DROP SVR THREAT FOR ND               
AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.  DID BREAKOUT FAR WRN STRIP BORDERING WFO BIS              
FOR THUNDER.  OTHERWISE...85H THETA E AIR DRIES OUT FROM THE                    
SOUTHEAST AND DONT SEE ANY NECESSARY DYNAMICS FOR PCPN TUESDAY RED              
RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO MN.  WILL CARRY CHC THUNDER TUE NIGHT THRU               
WED NIGHT WITH TROUGH HANGING UP OVER THE FCST AREA.                            
EXTENDED...WRN U.S. UPR RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO A MID CONTINENTAL                
TROF THROUGH MOST OF THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD. GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE              
VARIED MARKEDLY ON END WEEK SCENARIO...THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN              
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT FOR FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME. WILL STICK CLOSE TO               
CURRENT GFS AND KEEP SCT POPS FOR EARLY FRI AND AGAIN LATE ON SAT.              
WILL KEEP GRIDS DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH GFS HINTS AT NEXT UPR            
SHRTWV BY MON PM. TEMPS STAY GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TIL              
SUNDAY.                                                                         
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
RIDDLE/GUST                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
850 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS EVENING REVOLVE AROUND THE TIMING OF PCPN AND            
WHETHER TO INTRODUCE A CHC FOR THUNDERSTORMS.                                   
00Z KILN ILN SOUNDING WAS DRY BELOW 11K FT.  KILN RADAR WAS SHOWING             
LIGHT PCPN MOVING INTO THE REGION...BUT MOST OF IT WAS EVAPORATING              
...AIDING IN THE SATURATION OF THE CURRENT DRY AIR COLUMN...OR                  
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS SPRINKLES.  00Z SFC MAP INDICATED LOW               
PRES OVER SE MO...CLOSE TO THE 23Z RUC40.  THIS LOW WAS BEING                   
PERTURBED BY AN UPR LVL S/WV OVER NRN MO.  THE SFC LOW IS FCST TO               
TRACK NE UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BEING LOCATED NEAR SDF BY 12Z               
TUE.  ABUNDANT MOIST...STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCD WITH LOW               
AND LIFT ASSOCD WITH THE MID LVL S/WV WILL COMBINED TO PRODUCE                  
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WEST TO EAST ACRS THE CWFA OVERNIGHT.                
ONE WOULD THINK THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS              
WOULD BE A GOOD BET GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR AND STRONG LOW LVL MOIST             
FORCING.  HOWEVER...ALL ELEVATED LIS REMAIN ON THE NEUTRAL OR                   
SLIGHTLY POSITIVE SIDE (0 TO -2) FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.  IT IS NOT              
UNTIL THE DAWN HOURS THAT ELEVATED LIS GO 0 TO -1 OVER THE SRN                  
CWFA.  AS A RESULT...LEAVING THUNDER OUT FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT STILL            
LOOKS OK AT THIS POINT.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR PCPN ACTIVITY TO              
THE SOUTHWEST FOR ANY HINTS OTHERWISE.  CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO             
BE WELL IN HAND...BRINGING 100 POP TO ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.                  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN SOME              
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND THEN RAIN COOLED AIR TO FOLLOW.                         
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
HICKMAN                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED - NO UPDATE TO BE ISSUED                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
906 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
.SHORT TERM...THE AFTN CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE               
SEA BREEZE WHICH AS MOVED WELL INTO THE CSRA AND SC MIDLANDS PER                
KCLX RADAR IMGRY. 03/00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A STNRY FNT/MOISTURE               
BNDRY LAYING ACROSS NE FL SNAKING BACK THROUGH SW GA INTO N-CNTRL AL            
WITH LOW PRES CNTRD OVR SRN MO. SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTS TO FIRE               
ALONG THE BNDRY THIS EVNG WHICH WL LIKELY DELAY ITS NWRD MOVEMENT               
FOR MUCH OF THE NGT. THIS IS BEST REFLECTED IN THE LATEST RUC BRINGS            
THE BNDRY INTO SE GA OVRNGT. OVRALL THIS SOLN IS PREFERRED AS BOTH              
THE 18Z GFS AND 12Z ETA LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING THE FNT INTO            
S-COASTAL SC OVRNGT.                                                            
EXPANDING MID-LVL DECK NOTED ACROSS WRN GA IS INDICATIVE OF INCRG               
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE SFC BNDRY BUT THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC               
LIFT FOR THE CWFA WL HOLD OFF UNTIL TMRW. PC SKIES STILL ON TRACK.              
FOG STABILITY INDEX FM THE 00Z KJAX ROAB SHOWS ONLY A MODERATE                  
CHANCE OF LGT RADIATION FOG OVRNGT AND WITH FAIRLY DRY GROUNDS IN               
PLACE ANY FOG IS XPCTD TO VRY PATCHY AND LIKELY NOT SIG ENOUGH TO               
MENTION IN THE EITHER THE GRIDS OR FCST PRODUCTS. STILL CAN NOT RULE            
OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER LTR TNGT AS SPEED CONVG INCRS ALONG THE COAST.              
CURRENT FCST HAS 20 POPS WHICH LOOKS FINE BUT BELIEVE ANY SHOWER                
ACTIVITY WL BE CONFINED TO THE GA ZONES AND PSBLY THE SC COASTAL                
WTRS. THE ZFP AND CURRENT SET OF GRIDS LOOK GOOD SO AN UPDATE WL                
NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVNG.                                                        
.MARINE...NO REAL CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE AS THE CURRENT FCST                   
HANDLES TRENDS WELL. OTHER THAN A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS...NO                
CHANGES.                                                                        
.CHS...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA                                             
930 PM PDT MON JUN 2 2003                                                       
ONCE AGAIN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING OVER THE AREA AS THE              
UPPER RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE WEST COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY               
AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING THE RIDGE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARDS                     
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...JUST OFF SHORE. CURRENT                
FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. IN                      
ADDITION...24 HOUR DEW POINT TREND UP THIS EVENING BY A FEW                     
DEGREES. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT AS                     
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON THE FORECAST PACKAGE.  AT THE SURFACE...                 
THERMAL TROF WELL IN PLACE OVER CALIFORNIA WITH STRATUS PUSHING UP              
THE COAST LINE. THEREFORE...WILL EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON ON                
TUESDAY. AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING MAX                 
TEMP/S SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT DROP NOW WEDNESDAY.                
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...SO NO NEED TO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT             
COOL DOWN WILL BE DUE TO A WEAK INSIDE SLIDER KNOCKING HEIGHTS DOWN             
SOME 20 TO 30 METERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...FORECAST ON TRACK             
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.                  
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MOLINA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
235 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2003                                                       
CURRENT...STILL SOME SCRAPS OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVHD WITH             
ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20-60NM MARINE ZONES ATTM.             
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND NWD...              
AS EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPMENT/INLAND PENETRATION OF ECSB MONDAY. MOST             
METAR SITES ARE STILL REPORTING A LIGHT S-SW DRAFT...ALTHOUGH THE               
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO BE GRADUALLY BACKING. CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS/AL WITH EWD MOVING SQLN SHOWING UP ON              
THE KMOB 88D. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A STRONG H50            
VORT LOBE AS WELL AS A SOMEWHAT COUPLED LOOKING H25 JET STRUCTURE...            
SO SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM CONTRIBUTIONS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY ARE QUITE             
STRONG ATTM...ESP FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. NOSE OF ATLC DLM RIDGE IS             
JUST TO THE EAST OF FL.                                                         
TODAY-THU...RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ATLC TODAY WHILST              
A GULF SFC LOW TREKS NE...STAYING WELL NW AND N OF FL. THIS WILL KEEP           
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS FROM ACTUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE THIS FAR NORTH              
...AS LIGHT-MODERATE S-SW FLOW PGRAD WILL PREVAIL. ANTICIPATE THE               
ECSB TO FORM...BUT NOT MAKING SIGNIF INLAND PENETRATION NORTH OF THE            
CAPE. ABUNDANT MEAN PWAT IS IN PLACE AND THE SYNOPTIC UVM PROFILE               
WILL BECOME MORE ASCENDANT AS THE GULF COAST TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND             
UP AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE... RESULTING IN ~20M H50 HEIGHT FALLS BTWN            
18Z-00Z. CURRENT FCST OF SCT STORMS LOOKS ON THE MARK AND WOULD                 
EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN               
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FOR WED...RESIDUAL H50 TROUGH WILL DRIFT             
EWD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHER MEAN PWATS TO THE NW PUSHING SE              
TWD ECFL. MEAN DLM FLOW PATTER DOESN'T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...THUS                
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS             
TODAY. OP-GFS IS EVEN WEAKER WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE              
GULF COAST...A SOLN NOT SHOWN BY ETA/NGM/UKMET GUIDANCE...SO WILL               
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ETA SOLN OF NIL SFC REFLECTION WITH WEAKENING            
SFC FRONT GETTING STONEWALLED BY THE ATLC RIDGE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE            
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SCT CONVECTION - WELCOME TO THE WET SEASON.                
ONLY SHORT TERM CHANGE I CAN SEE MAKING IS TO PERHAPS NUDGE EVENING             
POPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SW STEERING FLOW.             
FRI-MON...MED RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING NWD EXPANSION OF              
THE DLM SUBTROP RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND FL...BUT THEN DISAGREE ON               
SPEED/EXTENT WITH WHICH THE AXIS GETS SUPPRESSED SWD BY ANOTHER H50             
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECM/UKM               
AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CNDN GGEM AND NGPS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BTWN.               
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FRI-SUN SHOULD BE ABREAST OF THE MID-PENINSULA             
...WHICH WOULD FAVOR EQUAL COVERAGE...BUT EARLIER-MID AFTN ALONG THE            
COAST AND LATE AFTN-EVE INLAND. BY MON...WE MAY TREND BACK TWD THE              
CURRENT REGIME WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE EAST COAST...ESP LATE.               
MARINE...FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH @ 10-15KT...OCNLY                 
TRENDING TWD SW OVER THE FLG-COF LEG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRC EACH            
AFTN. NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                            
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
DAB TT 091/073 088/072 088 43444                                                
MCO TT 091/072 089/072 089 42434                                                
MLB TT 089/073 088/073 088 43444    60=                                         
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE...VOLKMER                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
255 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP THE NEXT                   
SEVERAL DAYS IN ONE OF THE TOUGHEST FORECASTS I HAVE DONE IN QUITE              
SOME TIME.                                                                      
AT 09Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ONE                 
HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER PUSHING INTO              
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANALYSIS OF ONE HOUR                  
LIGHTNING DATA/MOSAIC RADAR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS OCCURING             
IN AREA OF RUC 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE/700 OMEGA. LOOKING AT THE QPF            
AND 700-500 OMEGA REVEALS THAT THE ETA AND GFS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE             
ON THESE FEATURES.                                                              
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES                   
SUGGESTS THAT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY. ONE WILL BE OVER            
THE EAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE               
SOUTHWEST CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY 500 SHORTWAVE              
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN           
THE OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE                 
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...OMEGA FIELDS             
AT 700-500 MB COME ALIVE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUT            
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE              
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL FAVOR GFS/ETA                      
REPRESENTATION HERE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...TAPERING           
OFF AS ONE GOES EAST.                                                           
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE             
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY PER               
OMEGA FIELDS WITH WHAT I WOULD EXPECT TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS              
WAKE...SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ETA GIVE ME SOME GRIEF             
AS TO WHERE TO PLACE PRECIP. GIVEN THE FLOW MY THOUGHTS ARE TO                  
FOLLOW THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR HIGHEST POPS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE HEADS THAT              
WAY. OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS WEDNESDAY. AVN MUCH COOLER GIVEN                    
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP. THIS COULD BE RIGHT GIVEN                  
SIMILAR SETUP A WEEK OR SO AGO. ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS NOT MUCH HELP                
EITHER. 2M ETA MATCHES ETA/FWC MOS NUMBERS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL LEAN             
THAT WAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.                                   
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING             
IN FROM THE NORTH...BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOW WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE                 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST THURSDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
FRIDAY-MONDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                        
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL UPDATE...                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
610 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
FCST PROCESS COMPLETE AND NEW GFS SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF BACKING DOWN           
FROM THE 00Z GFS QPF AND MAV MOS. 06Z ETA ROCK SOLID ON EXPECTED                
DEVELOPMENTS AND COMPARABLE TO 06Z RUC. EVAP CONTS TOL/DET AREA AND             
WE THINK THIS TREND WILL CONT AS QPF ATTEMPTS NE PUSH INTO OUR DRY              
AIRMASS LATE TDY/THIS EVE.  THERE WILL B NO MENTION OF PCPN IN SNE              
TODAY (12Z TAF WILL DROP IT AT BDL) WITH A DELAY TNGT. MAIN SHOW                
APPEARS WED AND LATER BOX FCSTS MAY NEED TO BACK OFF ON THE START               
TIME THIS EVE. CAN EASILY SEE EVENING ACTIVITIES IN CT DRY.                     
00Z/3 GFS ENS CONT SUPPORT OF 12Z/2 GFS ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET              
AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG (THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN                
EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA).                                           
TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKENING CI LATE.                    
TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS              
      OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK                 
      THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED              
      AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN                 
      THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON                
      AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN.                                
MARINE: LEFTOVR SEAS SCA TDY IN OUTER PVC-ACK. MAY HAVE SCA IN SRN              
        OUTER WATERS WED?                                                       
GRIDS: WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LOT MORE OCNL VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG               
       FRI-SUN IN THE CW DUE TO HIGHER TDS.  WARMEST DAY NEXT 6 SHUD            
       B SATURDAY.                                                              
.LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)...                                                 
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO                
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT               
IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.                               
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE             
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON                     
WEDNESDAY.  WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN                
THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL.                                         
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE              
COAST.  MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF             
INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN.  IT              
ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US             
COOL.  MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST,             
AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THINK THE ETA                  
MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE              
GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY.  IN              
ADDITION, ANOTHER  SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN                
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE             
TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING.                                          
BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.  VERY WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL              
UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.                                                      
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE                                                                       
MA...NONE                                                                       
RI...NONE                                                                       
NH...NONE                                                                       
MARINE...PVC-ACK OUTER WATERS SCA FOR SEAS.  MTK-ACK SCA MAY B REQ              
WED.                                                                            
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM..DRAG                                                                
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE #2 ANOTHER UPDATE IN 90 MIN                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
433 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
FCST PROCESS COMPLETE AND NEAR FINAL COORD. 06Z ETA ROCK SOLID ON               
EXPECTED DEVELOPMENTS AND COMPARABLE TO 06Z RUC. WE'RE OFF THE 00Z              
GFS SOLN AND THERE WILL B NO MENTION OF PCPN IN SNE TODAY (12Z TAF              
WILL DROP IT AT BDL) WITH A DELAY TNGT. MAIN SHOW APPEARS WED.                  
FOR STARTERS: WE CONTINUE IN SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS 00Z GFS             
QPF SOLN. 00Z/1 BUST OF OP RUN GFS QPF IN SNE LENDS SUPPORT TO                  
DEPARTING FM ITS CURRENT AGGRESSIVE NEWD MVMT STMT. ADDITIONALLY 06Z            
RUC AND 06Z ETA ARE INDENT ON NEWD PROGRESS AND CURRENT RADAR                   
SUGGESTS THAT 00Z/3 GFS IS GOING TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ITS .10 AS                
LEADING EDGE OF .01 FOR 12Z THIS MORNING....SO WHILE NOT YET IN THE             
BAG SO TO SPEAK...WE/RE THINKING DRY. WE SHUD HAVE MORE CONFIRMATION            
ON THIS VIA 06Z GFS IN THE NEXT 90 MIN AND ALSO A BETTER READ VIA               
00Z/3 GFS ENS.                                                                  
WHILE NOT HAVING SEEN THE 00Z/3 GFS ENS BUT RUNNING OFF THE 12Z/2 GFS           
ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG                
(THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA).                
TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKG CI LATE. WE                     
TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS              
      OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK                 
      THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED              
      AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN                 
      THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON                
      AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN.                                
MARINE: LEFTOVR SEAS SCA TDY IN OUTER PVC-ACK. MAY HAVE SCA IN SRN              
        OUTER WATERS WED?                                                       
GRIDS: WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LOT MORE OCNL VSBY RESTRICTION IN FOG               
       FRI-SUN IN THE CW DUE TO HIGHER TDS.                                     
.LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)...                                                 
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO                
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT               
IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.                               
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE             
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON                     
WEDNESDAY.  WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN                
THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL.                                         
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE              
COAST.  MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF             
INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN.  IT              
ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US             
COOL.  MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST,             
AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THINK THE ETA                  
MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE              
GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY.  IN              
ADDITION, ANOTHER  SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN                
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE             
TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING.                                          
BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.  VERY WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL              
UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.  HAVE INSERTED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS             
INTO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.  GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SHOW A COLD                 
FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.  WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL UP                
INTO THE 70S, HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT IT INTO THE FORECAST.                      
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE                                                                       
MA...NONE                                                                       
RI...NONE                                                                       
NH...NONE                                                                       
MARINE...PVC-ACK OUTER WATERS SCA FOR SEAS.  MTK-ACK SCA MAY B REQ              
WED.                                                                            
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM..DRAG                                                                
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE #1 ANOTHER UPDATE IN 90 MIN                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
327 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
THIS AFD AND FCST PROCESS STILL INCOMPLETE BUT TO GET OUT A COORD               
MESSAGE FOR SHORT TERM WE HAVE ISSUED. MORE ON ALL THIS LATER.                  
FOR STARTERS: WE CONTINUE IN SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT WITH THIS 00Z GFS             
QPF SOLN. 00Z/1 BUST OF OP RUN GFS QPF IN SNE LENDS SUPPORT TO                  
DEPARTING FM ITS CURRENT AGGRESSIVE NEWD MVMT STMT. ADDITIONALLY 06Z            
RUC AND 00Z ETA ARE INDENT ON NEWD PROGRESS AND CURRENT RADAR                   
SUGGESTS THAT GFS IS GOING TO STRUGGLE TO REACH ITS .10 AS LEADING              
EDGE OF .01 FOR 12Z THIS MORNING....SO WHILE NOT YET IN THE BAG SO              
TO SPEAK...WE/RE THINKING DRY. WE SHUD HAVE MORE CONFIRMATION ON                
THIS VIA 06Z MODEL TRENDS IN THE NEXT 2 HRS.                                    
NOT HAVING SEEN THE 00Z/3 GFS ENS BUT RUNNING OFF THE 12Z/2 GFS                 
ENS...ITS NICE RRQ 250 JET AND WAA 8H PATTERN..WE THINK THE FLWG                
(THIS ALSO SUPPORTED TO AN EXTENT BY 12Z/2 EC/00Z/3 UK AND ETA). 06Z            
ETA TREND MAY SWAY US TO A GFS SOLN BUT ITS OUR EXPECTATION THAT THE            
GFS WILL BACK OFF ON ITS 06Z RUN.                                               
TDY: INCREASING THEN THINNING CI FLWD BY THICKG CI LATE. WE PROB30              
     BDL AT 23Z IN DEFERENCE TO THE AGGRESSIVE GFS/UK BUT WE THINK              
     THATS TOO QUICK. OTRW VERY DRY AIRMASS SHUD EAT UP ANY MID LVL             
     QPF IN OUR CWA.                                                            
TNGT: WE CAN ACCEPT IB MEAS TO ROUGHLY A BDL-SFZ-CQX LINE WITH GFS              
      OP RUN POPS BUT CUTTING POPS MA PIKE REGION NWD. WE THINK                 
      THE BULK OF THE QPF FROM THIS WFRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES HERE WED              
      AND THAT CURRENT ETA/SOME EARLIER GFS RUNS WERE BETTER IN                 
      THAT REGARD. WE DID COORD WITH HPC EARLIER TNGT VIA TELCON                
      AND THEY ARE IN AGREEMENT ON BACKING DOWN.                                
.LONG TERM (WED THROUGH TUE)...                                                 
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VERY TRICKY WITH REGARDS TO                
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS.  THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A GREAT               
IMPACT ON WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.                               
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, SHOULD INDUCE             
A FAIR AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON                     
WEDNESDAY.  WILL BE GOING ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE POPS, ESPECIALLY IN                
THE SOUTH WHERE WE WILL GO CATEGORICAL.                                         
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST BATCH OF LIFT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE              
COAST.  MEANWHILE, THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF             
INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH MORE RAIN.  IT              
ALSO FORCES OUR SURFACE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING US             
COOL.  MEANHILE THE ETA MODEL SHOWS THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTHEAST,             
AND OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  THINK THE ETA                  
MODEL MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC, AND WILL GENERALLY LEAN TOWARDS THE              
GFS MODEL AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY.  IN              
ADDITION, ANOTHER  SHORWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN                
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, WITH ALL THE             
TIMING PROBLEMS THE MODELS ARE HAVING.                                          
BY FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.  VERY WARM              
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL              
UP INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.                                                      
.BOX...                                                                         
CT...NONE                                                                       
MA...NONE                                                                       
RI...NONE                                                                       
NH...NONE                                                                       
MARINE...NONE AT 4 AM.                                                          
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM..DRAG                                                                
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
345 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...APPEARS TO BE MORE                  
DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                
COLORADO...WHILE CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...IS                
MORE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                 
NEITHER COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AIR...HOWEVER               
HIGH POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHES OVER                
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.                                                     
LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN...                 
SHOWING A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH MOVING INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE OUR            
CHANCES OF RENEWED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS                           
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES...AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS AM/PM...AND                 
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                    
THIS UNSTABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING                  
AND/OR AMPLIFYING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO              
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL DIFFICULTIES IN                      
RESOLVING THESE SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGHS ALONG WITH MESOSCALE                   
INFLUENCES FROM INSTABILITY AND LIFT...MAKES THIS A LOWER THAN                  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA MOVING              
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT..SIMILAR TO THIS                   
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA/KF              
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO             
AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL            
FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE AND              
INSTABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INFLUENCE A LARGER             
PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...SO HIGHEST POPS             
STILL LOOK WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD.                                           
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF POPLESS                  
FORECASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE                     
CORRECT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.               
WITH NO MAJOR LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES SHOWN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE             
MODELS...THIS FRONT MAY SIMPLY OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA...SUPPORTING             
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE NO              
POPS FOR NEXT SUN/MON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING                    
OFFICES...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING THEM.                
OKC   78  62  79  69 /  30  30  30  50                                          
HBR   80  62  80  69 /  80  40  30  50                                          
SPS   83  65  82  69 /  80  40  30  50                                          
GAG   79  57  79  66 /  90  40  30  50                                          
PNC   73  59  76  67 /  20  20  30  50                                          
DUA   84  65  81  69 /  30  20  30  40                                          
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
415 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY            
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF UPPER LO NR CHICAGO. LEADING                
EDGE OF RAIN NOW ENTERING EXTREME SW PA...AND EXPECT RAIN WILL REACH            
ALL BUT OUR NE ZONES BY AROUND NOON BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL.                  
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THEN LL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE              
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. GFS FCST 1+ INCHES OVER MOST OF CWA WITH                
TOTALS APPROACHING FFG VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...SREF            
DATA SUGGESTS MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS...WITH LIKELY PROB OF 1+                
INCH RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS.                     
THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT PER                        
CONVERSATIONS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SEEMS LIKE ANY FLOODING THAT            
OCCURS WOULD BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY...AND BEST HANDLED WITH AN                 
FLS...RATHER THAN FLOOD WARNINGS.                                               
LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE DAMP...CLOUDY AND COOL WX DURING                   
WED...WITH LITTLE RAIN. A BETTER CHC OF RAIN WED NITE AS SLOW MOVING            
UPPER LO PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A SOMEWHAT BRIGHTER DAY SEEMS               
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR                 
ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN PLENTY OF SC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                
MTNS.                                                                           
EXTENDED...HI PRES WILL LIKELY BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WX                      
FRIDAY...THEN MREF DATA TRACKS SFC LO NORTH OF PA ON                            
SATURDAY...SUGGESTING WE COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH                 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY APPEARS DRY IN WAKE             
OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER MIDWEST IS AS                
STRONG AS MONDAYS ECMWF OR CMC SUGGEST...RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY              
MONDAY.                                                                         
.CTP...                                                                         
PA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
FITZGERALD                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
THE TAIL END OF A SQUALL LINE RESULTED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                 
WARNING LATE LAST NIGHT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY. THE CONVECTION DIED OUT              
QUICKLY AT THAT POINT HOWEVER...WITH CONDITIONS NOW QUIET FOR THE               
CURRENT SHIFT. THE RUC...CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE...SHOWS AN UPPER                
DISTURBANCE CLEARING THE AREA...WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING BACK                
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY SPARKING                
ISOLATED SHOWERS OFFSHORE.                                                      
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS             
AND A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE RECORD HIGH AT            
BROWNSVILLE TODAY IS 98...BUT WILL FORECAST MID 90S AT BEST...SHY OF            
ANY RECORDS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH...IN THE MID TO             
UPPER 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS...RESULTING IN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID                
CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                             
ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE COLD                
FRONT TO THE NORTH...TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE               
WEAKNESS EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY                      
AFTERNOON...AND MAY INTERACT WITH ANY WEAK SEA BREEZE. UPPER WINDS              
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WILL NOT SUPPORT DOWNSLOPE CAPPING.               
CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AS THE STALLED FRONT OVER             
CENTRAL TEXAS ACTS AS A FOCUS WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG              
IT ALOFT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY                
COULD ALSO LEAD TO STORMS MIGRATING SOUTHEAST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH                 
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH TO ALONG            
THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTLINE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AVN                     
ADVERTISING AN AREA OF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING RAINFALL MOVING UP ALONG            
THE SOUTH TEXAS COASTLINE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.                                
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS                  
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE                   
MENTION OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ITS                 
RETREAT DECREASES PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                   
MARINE...SEAS 4 FEET OFFSHORE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.              
MAY ISSUED SCEC OFFSHORE FOR WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...             
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY               
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS APPEAR            
TO BACK TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK BOUNDARY (LIKELY            
CONVECTIVE) MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX TUES NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO            
THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHT. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE                
THROUGH TX THURSDAY PROVIDING ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE COASTAL               
WATERS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY WITH                 
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND. IN ADDITION...            
700MB LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST ENHANCING                
LAPSE RATES WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING. WINDS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE               
SOUTH FRIDAY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING             
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX.                                                           
AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AT 1300 FT.               
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 3000 FT              
IF ANY. MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS AT 1500 FT.                
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...                           
BRO BE 095/078 094/078 090 00/00/20/20/30                                       
HRL BE 098/077 096/077 091 00/00/20/20/30                                       
MFE BE 100/078 098/078 092 00/00/20/20/30                                       
RGC BE 103/076 101/076 094 00/00/20/20/30                                       
SPI BE 091/078 091/078 088 00/00/20/20/30                                       
BRO...NONE.                                                                     
54/61                                                                           
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
321 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
FCST FOCUS IS ON EXTENT OF PCPN TODAY...AND TIMING OF PCPN THRU THE             
REST OF THE WEEK.                                                               
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVR SW WI...WITH             
RUC ANALYZING 500 MB LOW CENTER IN VCNTY OF DBQ AT 07Z...IN LINE WITH           
00Z ETA. WIDESPREAD PCPN SE OF STATE CLOSER TO SFC LOW WITH BETTER              
LOW LVL MOISTURE COUPLING WITH CVA. MODELS KEEP SOME MID LVL QG                 
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE OVER SRN WI TODAY AS CLOSED LOW SLOWLY                 
PUSHES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH E-NE FLOW...              
REFLECTED IN 1000-850 MB LAYER RH FCSTS AND BUFKIT SNDGS BELOW 800              
MB. SCT -RW MAINLY THIS AM DIMINISHING TO PATCHY DRIZZLE BY                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
HAVE KEPT CURRENT FCST OF A DRY WED AS SFC LO MOVS UP OHIO RVR VLY...           
BUT PROXIMITY OF MID LVL LO AND WRAP AROUND WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVR                
CWA DURING THE DAY...WITH PCPN JUST ACROSS LAKE IN LWR MI. NEXT CHC             
OF PCPN WILL COME THUR NGT INTO FRI AS NEXT SHRT WAVE DROPS TWDS RGN            
IN NW FLOW. GFS HINTS THIS SHRT WAVE WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CLEAR RGN             
AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS INTO CNTRL PLAINS AND CLOSES OFF.                         
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
935 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WERE QUITE               
MOIST....WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHICH LOOKS                  
SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.  H50            
TEMPS WERE NOT AS COOL AS YESTERDAY AT MINUS 9 DEGREES AND DO NOT               
SEE MUCH DRY MID LEVEL AIR...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE HEAVY                    
DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING.                                                        
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE WERE STARTING TO SHOW              
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE TO STORM CENTER MOVING THROUGH              
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...IF ANY...                
INLAND PENETRATION OF EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.                                    
H25 ANALYSIS/MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING UPPER DIVERGENT FLOW HELPING TO            
FUEL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST.  DEBRIS CLOUDS                
WILL START TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN                 
PLACE EXPECT CONVECTION WILL GET GOING EARLIER TODAY.  THESE                    
DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE STATE THIS                  
EVENING...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP ACTIVITY GOING WELL PAST SUNSET.               
DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT NEEDS CHANGING IN CURRENT FORECAST.                    
.MARINE...GRADIENT FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY SO PLAN TO BUMP UP THE            
WINDS IN THE SOUTH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.                                           
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
CURRENT...STILL SOME SCRAPS OF LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVHD WITH             
ISOLD CONVECTION AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE 20-60NM MARINE ZONES ATTM.             
LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND NWD...              
AS EVIDENCED BY DEVELOPMENT/INLAND PENETRATION OF ECSB MONDAY. MOST             
METAR SITES ARE STILL REPORTING A LIGHT S-SW DRAFT...ALTHOUGH THE               
OVERALL TREND IS FOR WINDS TO BE GRADUALLY BACKING. CONVECTIVE                  
COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER LA/MS/AL WITH EWD MOVING SQLN SHOWING UP ON              
THE KMOB 88D. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A STRONG H50            
VORT LOBE AS WELL AS A SOMEWHAT COUPLED LOOKING H25 JET STRUCTURE...            
SO SYNOPTIC SCALE UVM CONTRIBUTIONS FUELING THIS ACTIVITY ARE QUITE             
STRONG ATTM...ESP FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. NOSE OF ATLC DLM RIDGE IS             
JUST TO THE EAST OF FL.                                                         
TODAY-THU...RIDGE WILL BE EXPANDING NWD OVER THE ATLC TODAY WHILST              
A GULF SFC LOW TREKS NE...STAYING WELL NW AND N OF FL. THIS WILL KEEP           
SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS FROM ACTUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE THIS FAR NORTH              
...AS LIGHT-MODERATE S-SW FLOW PGRAD WILL PREVAIL. ANTICIPATE THE               
ECSB TO FORM...BUT NOT MAKING SIGNIF INLAND PENETRATION NORTH OF THE            
CAPE. ABUNDANT MEAN PWAT IS IN PLACE AND THE SYNOPTIC UVM PROFILE               
WILL BECOME MORE ASCENDANT AS THE GULF COAST TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND             
UP AGAINST THE ATLC RIDGE... RESULTING IN ~20M H50 HEIGHT FALLS BTWN            
18Z-00Z. CURRENT FCST OF SCT STORMS LOOKS ON THE MARK AND WOULD                 
EXPECT DECENT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING GIVEN               
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FOR WED...RESIDUAL H50 TROUGH WILL DRIFT             
EWD ACROSS THE STATE...WITH HIGHER MEAN PWATS TO THE NW PUSHING SE              
TWD ECFL. MEAN DLM FLOW PATTER DOESN'T CHANGE A WHOLE LOT...THUS                
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS             
TODAY. OP-GFS IS EVEN WEAKER WITH SECONDARY SFC LOW PRES ALONG THE              
GULF COAST...A SOLN NOT SHOWN BY ETA/NGM/UKMET GUIDANCE...SO WILL               
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE ETA SOLN OF NIL SFC REFLECTION WITH WEAKENING            
SFC FRONT GETTING STONEWALLED BY THE ATLC RIDGE. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE            
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SCT CONVECTION - WELCOME TO THE WET SEASON.                
ONLY SHORT TERM CHANGE I CAN SEE MAKING IS TO PERHAPS NUDGE EVENING             
POPS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SW STEERING FLOW.             
FRI-MON...MED RANGE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING NWD EXPANSION OF              
THE DLM SUBTROP RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND FL...BUT THEN DISAGREE ON               
SPEED/EXTENT WITH WHICH THE AXIS GETS SUPPRESSED SWD BY ANOTHER H50             
TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ECM/UKM               
AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CNDN GGEM AND NGPS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BTWN.               
LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FRI-SUN SHOULD BE ABREAST OF THE MID-PENINSULA             
...WHICH WOULD FAVOR EQUAL COVERAGE...BUT EARLIER-MID AFTN ALONG THE            
COAST AND LATE AFTN-EVE INLAND. BY MON...WE MAY TREND BACK TWD THE              
CURRENT REGIME WHICH SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE EAST COAST...ESP LATE.               
MARINE...FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH @ 10-15KT...OCNLY                 
TRENDING TWD SW OVER THE FLG-COF LEG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRC EACH            
AFTN. NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                            
PRELIMINARY CCF...                                                              
DAB TT 091/073 088/072 088 43444                                                
MCO TT 091/072 089/072 089 42434                                                
MLB TT 089/073 088/073 088 43444    60=                                         
&&                                                                              
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE...BRAGAW                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
545 AM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
WELL...AFTER WAITING AND WAITING FOR PRECIP TO GENERATE WHERE MODELS            
KEPT POINTING AT IT TO GO ITS FINALLY COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST              
ALONG TAIL END OF VORT MAX GENERATING PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST                 
FORECAST AREA. WILL TWEAK A FEW ZONES IN ITS WAKE AND BUMP UP POPS              
JUST A BIT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE                
COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.                    
---------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW-----------------------           
FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIP THE NEXT                   
SEVERAL DAYS IN ONE OF THE TOUGHEST FORECASTS I HAVE DONE IN QUITE              
SOME TIME.                                                                      
AT 09Z RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING TWO CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS...ONE                 
HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND ANOTHER PUSHING INTO              
OUR NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ANALYSIS OF ONE HOUR                  
LIGHTNING DATA/MOSAIC RADAR SUGGEST THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS OCCURING             
IN AREA OF RUC 700 THETA-E CONVERGENCE/700 OMEGA. LOOKING AT THE QPF            
AND 700-500 OMEGA REVEALS THAT THE ETA AND GFS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE             
ON THESE FEATURES.                                                              
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES                   
SUGGESTS THAT TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR TODAY. ONE WILL BE OVER            
THE EAST AND THE OTHER OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. THE               
SOUTHWEST CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY 500 SHORTWAVE              
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON GENERAL DOWNWARD MOTION IN           
THE OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AS THE                 
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...OMEGA FIELDS             
AT 700-500 MB COME ALIVE ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES OUT            
OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE              
SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL FAVOR GFS/ETA                      
REPRESENTATION HERE. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WEST...TAPERING           
OFF AS ONE GOES EAST.                                                           
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE THE TUESDAY NIGHT CONVECTIVE             
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY PER               
OMEGA FIELDS WITH WHAT I WOULD EXPECT TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN ITS              
WAKE...SIMILAR TO GFS SOLUTION. BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE                 
OVERNIGHT HOURS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/ETA GIVE ME SOME GRIEF             
AS TO WHERE TO PLACE PRECIP. GIVEN THE FLOW MY THOUGHTS ARE TO                  
FOLLOW THE GFS BUT EITHER WAY BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD FAVOR THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES FOR HIGHEST POPS AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE HEADS THAT              
WAY. OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS WEDNESDAY. AVN MUCH COOLER GIVEN                    
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND PRECIP. THIS COULD BE RIGHT GIVEN                  
SIMILAR SETUP A WEEK OR SO AGO. ENSEMBLE 850 TEMPS NOT MUCH HELP                
EITHER. 2M ETA MATCHES ETA/FWC MOS NUMBERS PRETTY GOOD SO WILL LEAN             
THAT WAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.                                   
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...DESPITE A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING             
IN FROM THE NORTH...BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOW WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE                 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST THURSDAY              
NIGHT.                                                                          
FRIDAY-MONDAY...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                        
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
907 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES IN        
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA. THEREFORE ADJUSTED SKY           
CONDITION THESE ZONES. ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS HERE AS WELL                  
AND MENTIONED BREEZY AS RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD MIXING. OTHERWISE           
NO OTHER CHANGES AT TIME.                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AND      
THEN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM      
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TOWARD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON         
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO              
RETURN FROM THE NORTHWEST.                                                      
DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WHICH      
BROUGHT OUR RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS LABRADOR. COOL        
AIR PULLING SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POUR ACROSS THE AREA       
TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SKY WILL BE       
MOSTLY CLEAR TO START...BUT AS THE DAYS HEATING BUILDS THE MIXING LAYER UP      
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET A LAYER OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM RESULTING IN A           
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. THE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AWAY EARLY THIS EVENING.               
TONIGHT WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND      
WARMER AS RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL        
RESULT IN SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ON THURSDAY A TROUGH OF     
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE            
DISAGREEING CONSIDERABLY IN THE TRACK AND OUTCOME OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING     
FOR THURSDAY. THE ETA AND UKMET AGGRESSIVELY PULL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION    
UP INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE      
OUT TO SEA. IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM IS COMPRISED OF TWO WAVES OF ENERGY...ONE     
COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A TRAILING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH         
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS ALLOW THE NORTHERN SYSTEM TO BE     
MORE INFLUENTIAL WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN KEEP THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WEAK       
ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO PASS OUT TO SEA WITH THE DOMINANT SOUTHERN             
SHORTWAVE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WED NIGHT DRY AND TREND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS        
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON THU.                                                     
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT        
SLOWLY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY    
TO NORTHERN AREAS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL IN THE          
VICINITY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.             
COASTAL WATERS: NO HEADLINES. W WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH      
A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 KT TONIGHT.                          
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
MCB/TD                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
940 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP/RUC ANLSYS SHOW AN UPR LVL RDG OVR NW ONTARIO N OF            
A CLOSED UPR LO OVR THE SRN GRT LKS. SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHES                  
ENE-WSW FM JAMES BAY THRU NW LK SUP INTO SRN MN UNDER UPR RDGING                
WITH CWA IN GENERAL NE FLOW BTWN THIS SFC RDG AND SFC LO PRES IN OH             
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LO TO THE S. 12Z APX AND GOES DERIVED             
SDNG FM CYXZ DEPICT A VERY DRY LWR TROP BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN                    
H75-7...SFC DWPTS ARND 40 TO THE E OF FA. 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS A                  
SIMILARLY DRY LWR TROP BUT WITH MORE MID LVL MSTR CLOSER TO CLOSED              
LO TO THE S...AND SAT PIX SHOW SCT-BKN MID CLD CIGS INTO NCNTRL WL.             
BUT FURTHER N OVR CWA...JUST SCT-BKN CI ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED              
LO. EVEN MORE MSTR NOTED ON 12Z INL SDNG...WITH SFC DWPTS AS HI AS              
THE LWR 50S ACRS NW MN.                                                         
MAIN FCST CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS FOR CLD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.            
09Z RUC SHOWS UPR/SFC RDG PRETTY MUCH REMAINING STNRY THRU DAY WITH             
CLOSED LO TO THE S DRIFTING ONLY SLOWLY ENE. FCST LLVL ELY FLOW ON              
SRN FLANK OF SFC RDG WL ADVECT DRIER AIR OBSVD IN THE LO LVLS OF                
APX/CYXZ SDNGS OVR CWA TDAY AND KEEP SOMEWHAT DEEPER MSTR ON GRB/INL            
SDNGS AT BAY. XPCT SCT-BKN CI TO REMAIN OVR CWA ALL DAY...WITH THIS             
HI CLD SOMEWHAT THICKER ACRS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES CLOSER TO UPR LO.            
OTRW...LOOK FOR ONLY FEW-SCT CU TO DVLP INLAND OF LK BREEZES THAT WL            
FORM IN RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT TDAY WITH INSOLATION ONLY                 
DIMMED BY HI CLDS. MODIFIED 12Z SDNGS WITH MIXING UP TO H7 (AS OBSVD            
IN HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS YDAY) WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OVR INLAND AREAS              
ARND 73...ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE HI CLD WL BE THICKER.             
WITH LLVL ENE FLOW...XPCT LK MODERATION MAINLY NR LK SUP W OF MQT               
AND DOWNWND OF LK MI S OF ESC. IN GENERAL...GOING FCST LOOKS ON                 
TRACK...SO NO UPDATE NEEDED ATTM.                                               
KC                                                                              
AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                         
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND LITTLE            
CHANGE IN THE UPR LVL PATTERN WITH THE WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN OVER               
THE AREA. SO...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH CLDS BUT THAT WILL BE             
ABOUT IT. TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S MINS WITH                     
COMPARABLE DWPTS. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.                  
MDLS START TO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE FATE OF THE UPPER LOW             
CURRENTLY OVER E IOWA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO PREV SOLNS OF SLOWLY               
MOVING THE LOW E ACROSS NRN IL AND IN TO E LK ERIE BY 12Z THU                   
MORNING. THE ETA SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NE MOVEMENT...BRINGING THE             
LOW TO CENTRAL LK HURON BY THE SAME TIME. THE ETA SOLN WOULD ALLOW              
FOR SOME CHC POPS OVER THE E AND S CWFA FOR WED AFTN/NIGHT...WHILE              
THE GFS SOLN WOULD KEEP THE FCST FOR WED/WED NIGHT DRY. LOOKING AT              
MDL TRENDS...THE GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREV RUNS.                
HOWEVER...THE ETA ACTUALLY AGREES WITH THE CANADIAN AND UKMET RUNS              
MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING ABOUT SOME SMALL              
POPS OVER THE FAR E...BUT DECIDED AGAINST DUE TO THE DRY AIR BELOW              
800MB PER ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS...AND ELY FLOW WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE OFF              
ON ONTARIO FOR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. PLUS...THE GFS STILL HAS                 
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND CANNOT DISMISS THAT FACT. FOR                  
NOW...WILL INCREASE CLDS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPS GENERALLY             
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY WARMER ON WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS             
AROUND +10C. ALTHOUGH THE ETA SHOWS COOLER 850MB TEMPS OVER EASTERN             
UPPER MICHIGAN DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW...EASTERLY                    
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL OFFSET THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT.                     
NO CHANGES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST. THE GFS AND ETA              
ARE ON TRACK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM DIVING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN                 
PRAIRIES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT COULD TAKE             
A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE CURRENT ONE...WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR A DRY                
FCST FOR UPPER MICHIGAN FOR FRI/SAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE            
MOISTURE AND A MORE NLY ROUTE AS A TRAILING S/WV DIGS OVER THE                  
ROCKIES...ALLOWING FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND MORE NE TRACK FOR              
THE UPR LOW. SEE NO REASON WHY TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN THE EXTENDED               
WITH THIS PKG.                                                                  
MRD                                                                             
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                      
CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS INDICATE THAT PRECIP IS HAVING A TOUGH             
TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS...BUT IT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY INTO              
DRY AIR MASS.  RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP                      
FIELD...AND BRINGS RAIN INTO SW ZONES AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.  WILL               
TEND TO FOLLOW RUC FOR THE SHORT-TERM AND HOLD THE PRECIP BACK A                
LITTLE.  WILL ALSO GO TO CAT POPS OVER WYOMING VALLEY.  TWEAKED WX              
AND POP GRIDS OVERNIGHT ALSO...BUT SHOULD NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE               
ZONES.  MJC                                                                     
----- EARLY AM DISCUSSION -----                                                 
HIGH AND MID LVE MOISTURE SPREADING QUICKLY INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT.              
RAIN ACROSS OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING IN LARGE AREA OF                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR SE KY. GFS            
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PLACEMENT OF PRECIP AND LOCATION OF LOW                   
CENTER, ALTHOUGH MODEL IS A TAD TOO DEEP WITH LOW. ON THE OTHER                 
HAND, THE ETA ALSO INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP BUT IS A BIT TOO                
WEAK WITH THE LOW STRENGTH. EITHER WAY, THE MAIN MODEL DIFF AT LEAST            
IN TERMS OF FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THE ETA                 
BEING THE SLOWER MODEL AND KEEPING THE PRECIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH               
THAN THE GFS. OUR FORECAST ALREADY TRENDED TWD THE FASTER SOLUTION              
AND I HAVE STAYED WITH THIS IDEA. HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST FAR              
NORTH, CHC POPS MHWK VALLEY WITH LIKELY SRN TIER NY INTO NE PA FOR              
THIS AFTN AND THIS EVENING. DO NOT SEE A LOT OF RAIN FROM THIS                  
SYSTEM WITH DRY ATMOS IN PLACE. UP TO 1 INCH PSBLE ACRS NE PA WITH              
AMTS DECREASING TO THE NORTH. NOT CONCERNED ATTM WITH FLOODING                  
POTENTIAL AS 1 INCH SHOULD NOT CAUSE PROBLEMS. MUCH HEAVIER RAINS               
WERE HANDLED WELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND GRND WILL HAVE HAD A CPLE OF             
DAYS TO DRY OUT. PSBLY SOME LOCALAZED NUISANCE PROBLEMS, BUT DO NOT             
SEE NEED FOR FFA.                                                               
AFTER THE SHOT OF WAA PRECIP PASSES THIS EVENING, GENERALLY                     
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THURS WITH                  
SEVERAL WEAK SFC LOWS AND APPROACHING 5H LOW.                                   
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
JML                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1014 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                      
FORECAST AREA BEING "SQUEEZED" BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH               
AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE                
AREA SHOWN NICELY BY 12Z KBUF SOUNDING. MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED              
NORTHWARD WILL HAVE A HARD TIME WORKING TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE AREA             
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON.             
LATEST ETA/RUC SUGGESTING NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD WILL MOVE INTO           
THE SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. WILL RAISE POPS IN CATEGORICAL           
RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT CONTINUE TO LEAVE AREAS NORTH OF                
BUFFALO TO BATAVIA DRY.                                                         
.BUF...NONE                                                                     
TMA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                      
NEAR TERM/ANALYSIS...SURFACE TROF HAS PROGRESSED NEARLY TO THE                  
MOT-BIS-PIR LINE...WHILE THE UPR LVL VORTICITY CENTER IS JUST                   
NORTHWEST OF KPHP. RAIN SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING IN THE TWO WEAK                  
ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE AREAS (RUC 295-300K SFCS) ...THE FIRST FROM CNTRL            
TO SOUTHEAST ND AND THE SECOND IN NORTHEAST ND. BOTH OF THESE AREAS             
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ND THROUGH THE MIDDAY                
PERIOD. MOTTLED SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE RRV AND NORTHWEST MN            
THROUGH MIDDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME LOCALIZED WARMING AND DEVELOPMEMT            
OF A TEMP GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPR VORT. CONVECTIVE                
TEMPS NER 70F IN THESE AREAS SHOULD E REACHED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND            
ALLOW FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMICS WITH UPR SYSTEM SHOULD                   
PROMOTE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE CNTRL AND SOUTHERN CWFA WITH SCT            
SHWRS INTO NRN CWA...WHILE THERMODYNAMICS WILL KEEP MOST TSTM                   
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE FGF AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR                     
TEMP...WINSHIFT AND AND WORDING TWEEKS.                                         
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
NO CHANGES.                                                                     
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
GUST                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                      
NEED TO RAISE POPS TEMPORARILY FOR SOME OF THE W ZONES TO ACCOUNT               
FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE               
LATER ON AND WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE                
THAT HAPPENS. CLOUDS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY IN NC OK BASED ON              
CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...ELSEWHERE VARIABLE CLOUDS. COMPLEX                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING...LARGELY DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.            
PICKING UP A BOUNDARY FROM N TX PANHANDLE E-SE ACROSS NW AND CENTRAL            
OK DRIFTING S. THIS BOUNDARY PROGGED BY MODELS TO WASH OUT LATER                
TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING E-NE AREAWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. MESOETA              
BREAKING OUT PRECIP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AGAIN BY 00Z SO WILL NOT               
REMOVE POPS ANYWHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. 24                                     
345 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...APPEARS TO BE MORE                  
DRIVEN BY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN                
COLORADO...WHILE CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...IS                
MORE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PROPAGATION FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                 
NEITHER COMPLEX IS FEEDING ON PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AIR...HOWEVER               
HIGH POPS WILL BE NEEDED AS THIS RAINFALL LIKELY DIMINISHES OVER                
WESTERN AREAS THIS MORNING.                                                     
LATEST RUC HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN...                 
SHOWING A JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE              
TROUGH MOVING INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DECREASE OUR            
CHANCES OF RENEWED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AREAS THIS                           
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE             
ROCKIES...AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS AM/PM...AND                 
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.                    
THIS UNSTABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOPING                  
AND/OR AMPLIFYING IN MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO              
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL DIFFICULTIES IN                      
RESOLVING THESE SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGHS ALONG WITH MESOSCALE                   
INFLUENCES FROM INSTABILITY AND LIFT...MAKES THIS A LOWER THAN                  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. COULD SEE ANOTHER AREA OF TSRA MOVING              
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT..SIMILAR TO THIS                   
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA/KF              
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR OVER EASTERN COLORADO             
AND WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL            
FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE AND              
INSTABILITY TO BE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO INFLUENCE A LARGER             
PART OF THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN HALF...SO HIGHEST POPS             
STILL LOOK WARRANTED FOR THIS PERIOD.                                           
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PERIODS BEYOND WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF POPLESS                  
FORECASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE                     
CORRECT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.               
WITH NO MAJOR LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES SHOWN IN THE MEDIUM RANGE             
MODELS...THIS FRONT MAY SIMPLY OSCILLATE OVER THE AREA...SUPPORTING             
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY HAVE NO              
POPS FOR NEXT SUN/MON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING                    
OFFICES...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO RECONSIDER ADDING THEM.                
OKC   78  62  79  69 /  30  30  30  50                                          
HBR   80  62  80  69 /  80  40  30  50                                          
SPS   83  65  82  69 /  80  40  30  50                                          
GAG   79  57  79  66 /  90  40  30  50                                          
PNC   73  59  76  67 /  20  20  30  50                                          
DUA   84  65  81  69 /  30  20  30  40                                          
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
1150 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                      
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO LIKELY OVER NORTHERN TIER AS RAIN STRUGGLING            
TO MOVE NORTH. ALSO DROPPED THUNDER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER                  
SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPS/WINDS UNCHANGED. NO CHANGES BEYOND TONIGHT.                
PRELIM DAY 3-7 ISC GRIDS OUT.                                                   
DIRIENZO                                                                        
---PREVIOUS AFD---                                                              
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN OHIO VALLEY            
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WAA AHEAD OF UPPER LO NR CHICAGO. LEADING                
EDGE OF RAIN NOW ENTERING EXTREME SW PA...AND EXPECT RAIN WILL REACH            
ALL BUT OUR NE ZONES BY AROUND NOON BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL.                  
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY                   
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE REGION...THEN LL JET AND DEEPEST MOISTURE              
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. GFS FCST 1+ INCHES OVER MOST OF CWA WITH                
TOTALS APPROACHING FFG VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...SREF            
DATA SUGGESTS MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS...WITH LIKELY PROB OF 1+                
INCH RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SC MTNS.                     
THEREFORE...WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT PER                        
CONVERSATIONS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. SEEMS LIKE ANY FLOODING THAT            
OCCURS WOULD BE OF THE MINOR VARIETY...AND BEST HANDLED WITH AN                 
FLS...RATHER THAN FLOOD WARNINGS.                                               
LL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE DAMP...CLOUDY AND COOL WX DURING                   
WED...WITH LITTLE RAIN. A BETTER CHC OF RAIN WED NITE AS SLOW MOVING            
UPPER LO PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. A SOMEWHAT BRIGHTER DAY SEEMS               
LIKELY ON THURSDAY AS FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY...ALTHOUGH COLD AIR                 
ALOFT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN PLENTY OF SC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE                
MTNS.                                                                           
EXTENDED...HI PRES WILL LIKELY BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE WX                      
FRIDAY...THEN MREF DATA TRACKS SFC LO NORTH OF PA ON                            
SATURDAY...SUGGESTING WE COULD BECOME QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH                 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT. SUNDAY APPEARS DRY IN WAKE             
OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IF DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER MIDWEST IS AS                
STRONG AS MONDAYS ECMWF OR CMC SUGGEST...RAIN IS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY              
MONDAY.                                                                         
.CTP...                                                                         
PA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
FITZGERALD                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO                                                 
213 PM MDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...(TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY).                                    
MAIN FCST CHALLENGES WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS               
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTORMS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.                             
CURRENTLY...MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTHEAST                 
PLAINS...AND IS LOCATED ALONG A KRTN TO NEAR KAMA LINE.  ANOTHER                
BOUNDARY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS SHOWING UP ALONG THE ARKANSAS                
RIVER VALLEY FROM KPUB TO KLAA.  SOME POST FRONTAL VFR STRATUS HAS              
DEVELOPED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.  DEW POINTS                 
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE STILL IN THE LOWER/MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S DEW            
POINTS LOCATED NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.  WV PICS SHOW NEXT UPPER LVL             
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NW WY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK VORT LOBE                     
POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH SRN UT..THOUGH THIS LATTER FEATURE APPEARS              
PRETTY WEAK.                                                                    
SO MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING/EXTENT OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY                   
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.                    
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FCST TO INCREASE BY BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA              
AS MINOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THUS EXPECT                  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS BY                
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE WY GLANCES ACROSS NRN                 
CO BETWEEN 00-03Z. STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS HAS DELAYED SFC              
HEATING SOME...AND LATER TIMING OF SHORTWAVE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN            
ANOTHER LATE START TO CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER            
50S...CAPES OF AROUND 500-1500 J/KG...AND 0-6KM SHEARS OF AROUND                
60KTS WOULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  AREA WITH                 
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL BE POINTS             
FURTHEST SOUTH AND EAST...LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.  CONVECTIVE             
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  OVERNIGHT...                
THINK BEST MCS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST                   
AREA WHERE LOW LVL JET WILL INTERACT WITH MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE.                 
HOWEVER...THERE IS AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING PAST                   
MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES.  WILL BUMP UP POPS IN THIS             
AREA TONIGHT.                                                                   
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AS STILL UNDER THE GUN FOR                        
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.            
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS FCST AREA IN NORTHWEST              
FLOW ALOFT.  STILL MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH OUT WEST...WITH                 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT BEST.  MESO-ETA POOLS DEW POINTS             
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY                   
AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES OF 1000-2500 J/KG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS               
OF FCST AREA.  AGAIN...0-6KM SHEARS OF 50-60 KTS MORE THAN                      
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  WILL ALL DEPEND ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE...           
AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING OF ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER.                   
CURRENT GRIDS HAVE SCATTERED POPS OUT EAST...AND THIS LOOKS FINE AS             
MAIN ACTION MAY COME MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HAVE COOLED OFF              
MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.  FOR WESTERN AREAS...STILL LOOKS DRY FOR               
WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS OVER THE HIGHER AREAS BY                 
AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER APPEAR WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS            
RUNS HAS ADVERTISED...THUS THINK THAT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS WILL           
REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. MIN RHS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND              
10-20% WITH HAINES INDICES OF AROUND 6. -KT                                     
LONG TERM DISCUSSION...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT-NEXT TUESDAY)                           
...MAIN CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND TIMING AND IMPACT OF AT LEAST A               
COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD...                       
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.  LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE               
STAYS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP CWA UNDER CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW                
REGIME.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUING PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TO               
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO...REINFORCING UPSLOPE FLOW AND                  
RENEWING THE CONVECTION...AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.  ONE DISTURBANCE                
MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER                  
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  EACH OF THESE                     
SYSTEMS WILL GENERALLY BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO THE           
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY...CLOUDS                 
AND COOLER TEMPS MAY KEEP IT TOO STABLE ON THE PLAINS FOR MUCH                  
CONVECTION.  FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVES              
INTO THE REGION...THE AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED ON THE                           
PLAINS...SO THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE BETTER DAY CONVECTIVELY.                
THEN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG                 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROP SOUTH ACROSS COLORADO.  700 MB TEMPS                    
WERE FORECAST TO DROP TO -4C OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT           
IN THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS...BUT THE 12Z RUN IS CONSIDERABLY WARMER...           
DROPPING TEMPS TO ABOUT 0C.  ORIGINALLY...LOOKED LIKE THERE COULD               
BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO ABOUT 7K ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.              
NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE ABOUT 9 OR POSSIBLY 8K.  ANYWAY...DUE TO                    
STRENGTH OF STORM...COOLED TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE                  
WEEKEND AND RAISED POPS JUST A LITTLE.  SUNDAY...STILL LOOKS                    
LIKE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES                      
STARTING TO WANE.  FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT KIND OF LOOKS                    
LIKE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PATTERN CHANGE WITH A DRIER,                      
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK                     
UP. ~LW                                                                         
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
545 PM EDT TUE JUN  3 2003                                                      
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                           
.OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES TO AFFECT THE             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH                
THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MAIN CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF              
THE FORECAST AREA. A LULL IN THE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF                      
DAYS...BUT DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A                
SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA OVER THE                  
WEEKEND AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SERVE              
TO DRY US OUT AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.                                   
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE               
FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC HINTS AT A BAND              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY               
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL                
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY                     
REMAINING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH                        
FRIDAY...GETTING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.                                  
.EXTENDED...DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER             
SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT OF TEXAS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF                      
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH...BUT GFS AND NCEP HAVE FRONT ABOUT BNA MONDAY MORNING             
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THUS WILL PUT POPS IN FOR            
MONDAY AND DRY TUESDAY...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN ABOUT 24 HOURS                 
COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                                   
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KATL 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 00 00                                                  
KAHN 65 81 63 82 / 40 20 00 00                                                  
KGVL 62 79 62 81 / 40 10 00 00                                                  
KRMG 63 81 58 82 / 30 10 00 00                                                  
KCSG 67 84 65 86 / 40 20 00 10                                                  
KMCN 67 85 65 86 / 50 20 00 00                                                  
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN AREA OF WARM MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD              
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  WINDS GENERALLY                    
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 180 TO 230 DEGREES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO               
WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL POSITION AND PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY              
NEARS FORECAST AVIATION SITES.  CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP             
WITH PRESSURE FRONT...INDICATED IN LASTEST VIS IMAGERY...FROM HSV TO            
JAN.  SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH              
ALABAMA BUT WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO                
NORTHWEST GA NEAR 12Z.  MID LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERS            
IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BRING CONDITIONS OUT OF IFR                
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  FOG WILL BE ISSUE MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY              
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.                                                        
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
305 PM EDT TUE JUN  3 2003                                                      
.OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES TO AFFECT THE             
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH                
THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MAIN CONVECTION TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF              
THE FORECAST AREA. A LULL IN THE ACTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF                      
DAYS...BUT DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE WEEKEND. A                
SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA OVER THE                  
WEEKEND AND THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD SERVE              
TO DRY US OUT AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.                                   
.SHORT TERM...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE               
FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. RUC HINTS AT A BAND              
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY               
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT LIKELY FAR SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT WILL                
STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY                     
REMAINING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH                        
FRIDAY...GETTING US BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR.                                  
.EXTENDED...DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER             
SHORT WAVES MOVING OUT OF TEXAS SHOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCE OF                      
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN THE FRONT WILL              
MOVE THROUGH...BUT GFS AND NCEP HAVE FRONT ABOUT BNA MONDAY MORNING             
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THUS WILL PUT POPS IN FOR            
MONDAY AND DRY TUESDAY...WHICH SLOWS THINGS DOWN ABOUT 24 HOURS                 
COMPARED TO CURRENT FORECAST.                                                   
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KATL 65 80 64 82 / 30 10 00 00                                                  
KAHN 65 81 63 82 / 40 20 00 00                                                  
KGVL 62 79 62 81 / 40 10 00 00                                                  
KRMG 63 81 58 82 / 30 10 00 00                                                  
KCSG 67 84 65 86 / 40 20 00 10                                                  
KMCN 67 85 65 86 / 50 20 00 00                                                  
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
26                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN PER                  
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED             
NEAR LOUISVILLE KY. THE 12Z RAOBS SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN               
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE             
EASTERN LAKES REGION AND SOME MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AHEAD OF THE                
UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST              
AREA  TODAY. EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND THE HIGH                    
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF DRY AIR                 
BELOW 5K FT. THIS DRY AIR HAS PREVENTED MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION               
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE ONLY                  
RECEIVED REPORTS OF SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE DETROIT             
AREA.                                                                           
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE              
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AROUND CHICAGO THROUGH                  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PULLING EAST INTO NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY MORNING.             
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN OHIO                          
TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO EASTERN LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY            
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY                
OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER                   
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS A LITTLE DEEPER              
THAN OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT AND                
GIVEN THE TRENDS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS...THE DEEPER SOLUTION                 
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.                                                          
850 TO 700MB THETA-E WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM                
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING               
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MESO ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUAL               
MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH. I WILL                   
THEREFORE MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE METRO                 
DETROIT AREA AND POINTS SOUTH. 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES            
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW WHICH               
WILL BE CENTERED NEAR TOLEDO. 300K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS MOIST              
ASCENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS            
BELOW 10 MB. THEREFORE...I WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE              
GFS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE MORE POTENT WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM                   
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT            
OF LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB REGION.              
AT THIS POINT...I WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR PORT HURON AND             
LAKE ST CLAIR AS THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION            
IS PROGGED. I WILL TAPER POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF THE                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY              
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW/DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO PULL EAST. A             
SURFACE-700MB RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION BY             
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING DRYER LOW-MID LEVEL AIR INTO SE             
MICHIGAN AND SHOULD SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE CLOUDS. I WILL REFRAIN                
FROM MENTIONING THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE                 
UPPER LOW AS THE ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY.            
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO PROGGED TO REMAIN UNDER 6 C/KM.                  
EXPECT THAT ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.                                     
SCATTERED POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK REASONABLE AS THE             
NEXT UPPER WAVE APPROACHES. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AXIS OF                       
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...SO WILL            
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF THUNDER.                                             
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS. I DID HOWEVER LOWER THEM             
A COUPLE DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION AND                
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF            
OF LAKE HURON MAY EVEN KEEP SOME LOCALS NEAR LAKE HURON IN THE 40S.             
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BRING THE NEXT MID                 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST            
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS ACTUALLY LIFTS THIS WAVE EAST BY SUNDAY              
AND DEVELOPS A RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE            
GFS SOLUTION DEVELOPS THIS WAVE INTO A CUT OFF UPPER LOW...WHICH                
THEN MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO               
WOULD SPELL A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP ON MONDAY. THE                         
UKMET...CANADIAN AND ETAXX DO NOT DEVELOP THIS WAVE. INSTEAD...THEIR            
SOLUTIONS SHOW A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING FROM THE WAVE ON                        
SATURDAY...AND LINGER THIS SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.               
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONTINUITY IN THE GFS AND GIVEN SEVERAL GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE                                 
ETAXX/UKMET/CANADIAN...I AM NOT READY TO ACCEPT THE OPERATIONAL GFS             
SOLUTION. I WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ETAXX/CANADIAN/UKMET IDEA AND            
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CARRY A DRY                
FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                       
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2003                                                       
KBUF RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD              
NEAR A JAMESTOWN TO WELLSVILLE LINE. RAIN SHIELD HAS A SLIGHTLY                 
NORTHEAST DRIFT. RUC/ETA/MM5 KEEP BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG               
THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE JUST BRUSHING                  
SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING AND THE UPPER GENESEE VALLEY. SURFACE WAVE              
OVER THE LOWER VALLEY WILL GENERATE WEAK AREA OF LIFT ACROSS THE AREA           
THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS LIFT AREA STAYS GENERALLY ALONG THE             
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLAN ON MENTIONING POPS ONLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF             
A BUFFALO TO BATAVIA LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WAVE                
MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED LIFT                 
DIMINISHING.                                                                    
GFS/ETA IN GENERAL AGREEMENT KEEPING CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT            
LAKES THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING IT AND LIFTING IT EAST.           
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE OVER OHIO BY WEDNESDAY             
MORNING AND MOVE IT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND               
THURSDAY. BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LOW THEREFORE             
SHOULD SEE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT DURING THE                        
AFTERNOON...IF NOT EARLIER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY LIFTING            
GRADUALLY NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.                   
WEAK RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY           
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL END PRECIPITATION AS DRIER AIR AND                  
SUBSIDENCE WORK ACROSS THE AREA.                                                
.BUF...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
TMA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2003                                                      
DAY ONE...                                                                      
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED BY MORNING             
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORTED BY LATEST UA DATA AND WV IMAGERY. IN               
FACT...WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS NOTED IN WV IMAGERY OVER NRN NM THIS             
MORNING. HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS HANDLED            
THE EVOLUTION OF LOW-LEVEL WX FEATURES REASONABLY WELL. AS OF                   
MID-AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED ACROSS                  
EASTERN NM WITH PERHAPS A MESO-LOW SITUATED BETWEEN TCC AND CVS. A              
SWD MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ERN NM MESO-LOW ACROSS THE             
EXTREME SRN TX PANHANDLE...FROM NEAR HEREFORD TO SOUTH OF CDS.                  
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT NEARLY BI-SECTS THE LBB CWFA FROM WEST TO              
EAST. THIS HAS CREATED MODERATE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH              
OF WEST TEXAS...PULLING DEEP BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WWD.                       
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM NE TO SW ACCORDINGLY WITH CAPE VALUES                
RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE NE ZONES TO GREATER THAN 3500              
J/KG ACROSS THE SW ZONES. COMBINATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL                       
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND HIGH CAPE HAS CREATED A VERY FAVORABLE              
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE LATEST              
SWODY1...SWOMCD AND HWOLBB FOR DETAILS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO               
COALESCE INTO MCS BY LATE EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS...BRINGING MOST AREAS AT LEAST            
MODERATE RAINFALL. QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH RESPECT FOR WEDNESDAY/S                
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ANY OUTFLOW-INDUCED CLOUD               
COVER LIKELY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON               
INSTABILITY.                                                                    
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...                                                       
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS A MID                   
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE WEST COAST                     
THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO NEAR 140W-145W             
BY TUESDAY WITH A TROF DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND               
A WEAK/FLAT RIDGE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. A                  
SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE RIDGE AND SLIDE DOWN                  
ALONG THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE                 
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING                   
INTO MONTANA LATE FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO              
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL             
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE               
TO SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE RELIGION THROUGH SUNDAY               
WITH BEST CHANCES LATE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE NIGHT. A WARM FRONT             
BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE BACK TO               
THE SOUTH AND INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN BY THURSDAY MORNING               
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER COLD                  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE                  
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY WILL PUSH A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD              
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEAR                
ZONAL BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING               
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. WITH THUS KEEP MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY.                 
FCSTID = 08                                                                     
FRIONA      59 78 58 79 / 60 20 40 20                                           
TULIA       60 77 59 77 / 60 20 30 20                                           
LUBBOCK     66 81 62 81 / 60 20 30 20                                           
BROWNFIELD  66 85 64 83 / 60 20 40 20                                           
CHILDRESS   63 75 64 80 / 60 20 30 20                                           
ASPERMONT   68 80 67 83 / 60 20 30 20                                           
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx