AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA                                              
1010 AM PST THU FEB 2 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT SOUTH OF               
THE REGION EXPANDS NORTHWARD. A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH            
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.              
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY               
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...VERY LIGHT AND VERY LOW TOP SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH                  
ASHORE OVER NW CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. GFS REMAINS A LITTLE WETTER             
THAN OTHER GUIDANCE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...SINCE IT BRINGS A                   
SLIGHTLY STRONGER IMPULSE IN ALOFT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT                  
LATEST ETA12 AND RUC ARE IN LINE WITH GENERALLY DRY SLOT OFFSHORE               
THAT SHOULD PUSH OVERHEAD...WITH NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION BEING             
THE MAIN DYNAMIC DRIVER. SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS               
FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE PUSHES                          
OVERHEAD...BUT END THE SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL AREAS BUT                
ZONES 3 AND 4...WHERE WEAK OROGRAPHICS MAY HELP WRING OUT SOME                  
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. WITH VERY LIGHT SURFACE WIND EXPECTED AS                   
SURFACE HIGH SITS ON TOP OF NW CALIFORNIA...EXPECT LITTLE WIND TO               
THOROUGHLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. SO WILL NOT GO TOO GUNG            
HO WITH CLEARING OUT THE CLOUDS EXCEPT OVER ZONE 76 WHERE SOME NORTH            
WIND SHOULD HELP THE MIXING PROCESS. TJADEN                                     
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...A WHOPPING 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY IN EUREKA              
BRINGING THIS SEASONS TOTAL TO NEARLY 38 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST 1             
3/4 TIMES THE NORMAL AMOUNT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO MAJOR FLOODING            
IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL HOWEVER 3 LOCAL               
RIVERS HAVE REACHED MONITOR STAGE (EEL RIVER AT FERNBRIDGE, KLAMATH             
AT KLAMATH AND THE MAD RIVER AT ARCATA) BUT WILL RECEDE LATER TODAY             
AND TONIGHT.  A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY AS              
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY BUILDS.  SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY            
ALONG THE COAST BUT A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN             
PACIFIC WILL HELP PUMP UP A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST                
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER WEATHER LATER TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW.                 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF               
GUSTY WINDS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY.  MOTHER NATURE            
FINALLY TURNS OF THE WATER SUPPLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS ENSEMBLE                 
FORECAST MODELS DEPICT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC            
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT                  
WEEK.  THIS SHOULD BRING MUCH NEEDED DRY, SUNNY AND WARMER WEATHER              
TO THE REGION.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS HIGH               
PRESSURE BUILDS AND CUTS OFF THE STREAM OF MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN.             
FOG EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS TNGT UNDER WARMER/DRIER AIR ALOFT,                  
PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND WET GROUND.                                          
&&                                                                              
.EKA...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
GALE WARNING PT ST GEORGE TO CAPE MEN OUT 60NM.                                 
SCA CAPE MEN TO PT ARENA OUT 60NM.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)                                               
FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE WINDS ON FRIDAY...SPRINKLES ON                        
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.                              
WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON              
AND NORTHERN IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING WOULD BRING IT DOWN THE               
RIDGE AND ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME                 
TIME...A POWERFUL 140KT JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT            
ITS POSITION WOULD PLACE LEFT REAR QUADRANT WHERE LIFT WITH THE WEAK            
WAVE WOULD BE STRONGEST. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT WOULD BE OVER COLORADO             
AND WYOMING. EITHER WAY...WITH POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING                 
INVERTED-V AND DRY LOW LEVELS...IF ANYTHING WOULD GET GOING THINK IT            
WOULD BE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES. BIGGER STORY ON FRIDAY MAY BE THE            
WINDS...WITH RUC20 OFF THE FSL WEBSITE DEVELOPING 25-30KT SUSTAINED             
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA BY 18Z.                      
HOWEVER...OTHER PARAMETERS...SUCH AS 800MB WIND OFF THE GFS AND                 
NAM...NOT SO AGGRESSIVE. SO WILL BUMP UP WINDS TO LOW END WINDY AND             
HAVE NEXT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK.                                             
AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.               
LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH CROSS MOUNTAIN             
FLOW...WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.            
850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WARMEST IN THE WEST.           
700MB TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z                 
SUNDAY. USUAL GFS/NAM SPLIT WITH PRECIPITATION (WET GFS/DRY NAM).               
WHAT MOISTURE DOES ARRIVE WILL BE POST FRONTAL ON SUNDAY...AND BY               
THAT TIME 700MB DEFORMATION/OMEGA POINT TO NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN CWA            
AS HAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. TOP             
DOWN CHART APPLIED TO GFS BUFR POINT SOUNDING FOR MCCOOK SAYS THAT              
WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. WILL SHAVE A CATEGORY OR SO OFF             
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                                       
.LONG TERM... (MONDAY - THURSDAY)                                               
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL AMPLIFY AND SURGE                
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE             
THE RIDGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL                   
RELATIVELY FAR SOUTH...AND EMERGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES              
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ECMWF A BIT FURTHER WEST/COLDER WITH THE FEATURE            
COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES. WILL SHADE A BIT TOWARDS THE             
WARMER GFS GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN THIS WINTER AND LACK OF SNOW COVER             
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WEST COAST RIDGE              
REALLY GETS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING                      
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC OUTBREAK SEEMS CERTAIN OVER             
THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE MORE                    
INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE AXIS AND BELIEVE GFS TREND OF WARMING                   
TEMPERATURES HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO VERIFY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
940 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.OVERNIGHT UPDATE....                                                           
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 02Z AND WILL             
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER              
PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CENTRAL                   
KENTUCKY BUT THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP INDICATED SOME LIGHT RAIN                  
THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE.                                                      
CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WE WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR              
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT POPS AND TEMPERATURES.                                 
UPDATE FORECAST OUT BY 10 PM.                                                   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                              
THE RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL             
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN JUST MOVING INTO FTK AND SDF            
AT 1430Z.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY            
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDOWN             
RAIN SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA.                                              
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE FIRST             
30 HOURS WITH SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MOVE INTO LATE            
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN            
TIMING OF ENDING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW. WILL             
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS.                    
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING                 
HOURS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z.                     
NAM...RUC AND GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. AS LOW CONTINUES TO            
MOVE TO THE EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT             
HOURS. IN THE FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL END JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.                   
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES            
IN FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS                
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PERSISTS OVER THE FA              
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO BY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AHEAD OF                      
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE ADVANCING NORTH             
INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                               
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT THEN RECOVER              
ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE            
TO MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                   
SCHOLZ                                                                          
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
CHALLENGES CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.                                  
HAPPILY...NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT               
WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE                
WEEKEND. SADLY...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT                
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FORECAST POSSIBILITIES.                       
DEEP 500HPA TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EXTEND FROM                
WESTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL                
DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROF SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND               
SHOOT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY.              
500HPA TROF AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. IN             
RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED                  
STATES FRIDAY EVENING HEADS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS                
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA                 
SUNDAY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN IMPRESSIVE STORM.                                 
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE LMK CWFA IS STILL A QUESTION                            
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM KEEPS RH LEVELS LOW AND THE             
SOUNDING PROFILE RELATIVELY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE             
OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. GFS HOWEVER BRINGS AN AREA OF DEEP            
MOISTURE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE PASSING SURFACE                 
LOW...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.              
IT ALSO HAS A COLDER PROFILE THAN THE NAM...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE             
IN BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND A 5000 FOOT DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT               
-15 DEG C. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW FOR             
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                         
GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS RECENTLY AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO               
THE EXTREME GFS SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE A                    
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS THREE RUNS OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO                   
MOISTURE SUPPLY ABOVE 800HPA. ENSEMBLE GFS CONSENSUS MEAN AND                   
OPERATIONAL ECMWF ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH DEEP MOISTURE. HPC KEEPS             
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WELL EAST OF THE LMK CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY.                     
THUS...WILL NOT BUY THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS                   
TIME...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED                 
CLOSELY.                                                                        
LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...GEM IS OUT TO LUNCH SO WILL               
LEAN MORE ON GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN                  
DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND                
MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY                            
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY.                 
ON MONDAY GFS IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH A LITTLE                  
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. MOST            
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR             
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW.                                          
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO AFFECT US WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A             
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.                        
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL CALL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY            
NIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY MORNING             
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.               
TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL OR                 
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL READINGS.                                               
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
300 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...                                             
THE RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL             
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN JUST MOVING INTO FTK AND SDF            
AT 1430Z.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY            
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BY SUNDOWN             
RAIN SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA.                                              
MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE FIRST             
30 HOURS WITH SOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM AS MOVE INTO LATE            
FRIDAY. HOWEVER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ONLY MINOR DISAGREEMENTS IN            
TIMING OF ENDING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW. WILL             
USE A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM...LEANING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS.                    
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING                 
HOURS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 06Z.                     
NAM...RUC AND GFS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS. AS LOW CONTINUES TO            
MOVE TO THE EAST...RAIN WILL END FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT             
HOURS. IN THE FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL END JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.                   
ON FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM COMES            
IN FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER EXPECT SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY AS                
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW PERSISTS OVER THE FA              
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. ALSO BY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AHEAD OF                      
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES WILL BE ADVANCING NORTH             
INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.                               
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S TONIGHT THEN RECOVER              
ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE            
TO MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.                                                   
SCHOLZ                                                                          
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
CHALLENGES CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.                                  
HAPPILY...NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT               
WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO THE                
WEEKEND. SADLY...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS THAT                
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FORECAST POSSIBILITIES.                       
DEEP 500HPA TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL EXTEND FROM                
WESTERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL                
DEVELOP IN THE BASE OF THE TROF SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND               
SHOOT UP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY AS IT DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY.              
500HPA TROF AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. IN             
RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED                  
STATES FRIDAY EVENING HEADS UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS                
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA                 
SUNDAY AS IT DEVELOPS INTO AN IMPRESSIVE STORM.                                 
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE LMK CWFA IS STILL A QUESTION                            
MARK...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM KEEPS RH LEVELS LOW AND THE             
SOUNDING PROFILE RELATIVELY WARM FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A CHANCE             
OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. GFS HOWEVER BRINGS AN AREA OF DEEP            
MOISTURE IN A DEFORMATION ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE PASSING SURFACE                 
LOW...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.              
IT ALSO HAS A COLDER PROFILE THAN THE NAM...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE             
IN BEST SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND A 5000 FOOT DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT               
-15 DEG C. THESE FACTORS WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW FOR             
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KENTUCKY.                                         
GIVEN THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS RECENTLY AM HESITANT TO BUY INTO               
THE EXTREME GFS SOLUTION RIGHT NOW. THIS SOLUTION IS QUITE A                    
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS THREE RUNS OF THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO                   
MOISTURE SUPPLY ABOVE 800HPA. ENSEMBLE GFS CONSENSUS MEAN AND                   
OPERATIONAL ECMWF ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT SUCH DEEP MOISTURE. HPC KEEPS             
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WELL EAST OF THE LMK CWFA THROUGH SUNDAY.                     
THUS...WILL NOT BUY THE GFS SOLUTION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS                   
TIME...BUT THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE TO BE MONITORED                 
CLOSELY.                                                                        
LOOKING FURTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST...GEM IS OUT TO LUNCH SO WILL               
LEAN MORE ON GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/ECMWF. AFTER A BIT OF A BREAK IN                  
DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY...WRAP-AROUND                
MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY                            
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY STILL LOOKS DRY.                 
ON MONDAY GFS IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH A LITTLE                  
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. MOST            
OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR             
SOUTHWEST SO WILL KEEP POPS QUITE LOW.                                          
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER APPEARS TO AFFECT US WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS A             
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.                        
AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE...WILL CALL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY            
NIGHT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY MORNING             
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.               
TEMPERATURES IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL OR                 
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL READINGS.                                               
13                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
910 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV DROPPING THRU THE             
NRN PLAINS DEEPENING UPR TROF OVER CNTRL NAMERICA. ASSOCIATED SFC LO            
HAS MOVED INTO NW WI...WITH SE LLVL FLOW OVER THE FA TO THE N OF                
SUBTLE WARM FNT AND ON WRN FLANK OF SFC HI PRES RDG EXTENDING INTO              
THE FA FM ACYC CENTER WELL TO THE E. LOCAL 00Z RAOBS/TAMDAR SDNGS               
INDICATE ENUF DRY AIR IN THE H9-8 LYR TO PREVENT ANY SGNFT PCPN                 
AHEAD OF THE LO/DEEPENING UPR TROF... BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES/MORE                
MSTR ABV THIS DRY LYR HAVE CAUSED QUITE A BIT OF MID CLD/SOME                   
FLURRIES. OTRW...SOME LO CLD HAS DVLPD OVER THE CNTRL ZNS IN                    
PRESENCE OF NIGHTTIME RADIATION LOSS/UPSLOPE SE FLOW BLO LO INVRN               
ARND H925 SHOWN ON LOCAL SDNGS. HEAVIER SN IS NOTED OVER NW MN                  
BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FNT DIVING INTO THAT AREA WELL BEHIND SFC LO NOW             
IN NW WI.                                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE CLD TRENDS/PCPN CHCS.                               
18Z GFS HAD BEST HANDLE ON EXPANSION OF MID CLD OBSVD THIS EVNG                 
AHEAD OF SFC LO/WEAK WARM FNT AND IS MODEL OF CHOICE FOR UPDATE                 
GUIDANCE. GFS SHOWS BAND OF UVV/HIER MID LVL RH IN ADVANCE OF WARM              
FNT MOVING SLOWLY SW-NE ACRS THE FA THRU 06Z...SO HAVE KEPT MENTION             
OF FLURRIES INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS BEFORE THE BAND OF H7 UVV EXITS.            
LATER TNGT...THIS MODEL SHOWS SHARP COLD FNT/H85-7 FRONTOGENESIS/               
LLVL CNVGC/DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC ARRIVING OVER THE WRN ZNS LATER             
AT NGT. WL SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF ASSOCAITED PCPN CHCS A BIT TO                   
REFLECT GFS TIMING OF THE MORE SGNFT DYNAMICS. SINCE TEMPS WITHIN               
LLVL MOIST LYR BLO INVRN ARE WELL ABV -10C... CONCERN THERE COULD BE            
SOME -FZDZ/BR ACRS THE CNTRL ZNS WHERE SSE FLOW EXPECTED OVERNGT WL             
BE UPSLOPING. MID CLD PRESENT ATTM SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEED THE LLVL              
MSTR SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE JUST FLURRIES AS DRY LYR NOT THAT DEEP               
(100MB)...BUT GFS HINTS MID CLD MAY DSPT FOR AWHILE LATER. SO HAVE              
ADDED PTCHY -FZDZ OVER THE CNTRL ZNS OVERNGT. FCST WELL ABV NORMAL              
LO TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.                                                       
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FROM LATE FRI THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
FRI...THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE MID LVL TROF                  
MOVING INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TRENDS AND AMOUNT             
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE TOWARD            
THE SLOWER GFS IN BRINGING PCPN THROUGH W UPR MI. EVEN WITH MODEST              
QG FORCING...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8                      
C/KM...COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHSN PRODUCING BRIEF            
LOW VSBY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THE 12Z NAM HINTED AT SUCH A                  
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...ONLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND                
TIMING OF SUCH A FEATURE...ONLY INCLUDED SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH               
LIKELY POPS OVER THE W HLF. INCREASING CAA AND NRLY WINDS                       
INTO W UPR MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING INCREASE IN                    
SNOWFALL RATES WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -10C.             
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LVL TROF SLIDES                        
EAST...DEEP MOISTURE AND NRLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOWFALL RATES. THE COOLER GFS H8 TEMPS WERE PREFERRED GIVEN RECENT             
MDL PERFORMANCE AND BIASES. WIND TRAJECTORIES WITH CYCLONIC NRLY                
FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF FAVORS WEST UPR               
MI...VCNTY KIWD...FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACRS THE             
NORTH FROM THE KEWEENAW AND N CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO SEE                      
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY              
SAT H8 TEMPS FALL INTO THE -11C TO -15C RANGE WITH DEEP MOISTURE                
STILL IN PLACE LEADING TO DECENT SNOWGROWTH. SO...MODERATE TO HEAVY             
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH 12 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7                   
INCHES. CURRENT WATCH HEADLINES STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH LONG                   
DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW GIVING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST 10 INCHES            
IN MAY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THROUGH SAT...IWD VCNTY SHOULD                 
STILL BE FAVORED FOR GREATEST AMOUNTS.                                          
SUN...LES RATES SHOULD MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DESCENDS INTO            
THE WRN LAKES OUT OF ONTARIO...PER GFS/ECMWF...HEAVIER RATES MAY                
PERSIST WITH CONTUING LES HEADLINES.                                            
MON-THU...THE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERALL                 
PATTERN...FEATURING A WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF OVER THE EAST...WILL              
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...TYPICAL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH               
THE TIMING/POSITION OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE N CNTRL                  
CONUS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH FROM               
MON INTO TUE WITH RIDING HGTS AND H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR -10C BY             
TUE AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV SLIDES THROUGH THE UPR MS VALLEY.                  
HOWEVER...SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE SLOWER/COLDER ECMWF IN RESPONSE              
TO RDG BUILDING TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS WOULD FAVOR BETTER LES                   
CHANCES THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF A              
STRONG SHRTWV CRESTING THE RDG AND CARVING A DEEP TROF OVER THE                 
LAKES...IT REMAINS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN WITH                
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO WHICH             
WOULD BRING SYNOPTIC -SN OVER THE AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWV                  
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO LES AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND               
IT. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS OFTEN IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HEIGHTS             
AND CLOSING OFF MID LVL LOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AN EXTENDED                 
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WEEK.             
JLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING                   
FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084.                                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT                       
MIZ005-MIZ006.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
400 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE LES POTENTIAL/AMOUNTS FROM LATE FRI THROUGH              
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER             
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH WSW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES AROUND A MID/UPR            
LVL LOW OVER NW ONTARIO. A WEAK SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH NRN MN                    
COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES TO 8C/KM SUPPORTED SOME                    
CONVECTIVE SHSN OVER NE MN WITH VSBYS REPORTED BLO 1SM AT TIMES.                
OTHER STRONGER UPSTREAM SHRTWVS WERE LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD AND CNTRL            
SASK/MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...WEAK S TO SE FLOW PREVAILED OVER UPR MI             
AHEAD OF A 997 MB LOW OVER SE SD. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREAS OF             
CLOUDS SPREADING ACRS CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 290K ISENTROPIC                 
ASCENT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT OVER SW WI.                                        
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE BAND OF SHSN OVER NE MN WILL NOT AFFECT UPR MI             
AS THE SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE ENE. INCREASING 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND             
900-800 MB FGEN AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID LVL TROF WILL ALSO                  
REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF UPR MI BUT MAY EDGE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF               
THE CWA LATE.                                                                   
FRI...THE NAM/GFS WERE SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH THE MID LVL TROF                  
MOVING INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM TRENDS AND AMOUNT             
OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE TOWARD            
THE SLOWER GFS IN BRINGING PCPN THROUGH W UPR MI. EVEN WITH MODEST              
QG FORCING...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8                      
C/KM...COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHSN PRODUCING BRIEF            
LOW VSBY AND QUICK ACCUMULATIONS. THE 12Z NAM HINTED AT SUCH A                  
POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...ONLY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND                
TIMING OF SUCH A FEATURE...ONLY INCLUDED SMALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH               
LIKELY POPS OVER THE W HLF. INCREASING CAA AND NRLY WINDS                       
INTO W UPR MI LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING INCREASE IN                    
SNOWFALL RATES WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -10C.             
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AS THE MID LVL TROF SLIDES                        
EAST...DEEP MOISTURE AND NRLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOWFALL RATES. THE COOLER GFS H8 TEMPS WERE PREFERRED GIVEN RECENT             
MDL PERFORMANCE AND BIASES. WIND TRAJECTORIES WITH CYCLONIC NRLY                
FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE 850-700 MB THERMAL TROF FAVORS WEST UPR               
MI...VCNTY KIWD...FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACRS THE             
NORTH FROM THE KEWEENAW AND N CNTRL UPR MI SHOULD ALSO SEE                      
INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY MIDDAY              
SAT H8 TEMPS FALL INTO THE -11C TO -15C RANGE WITH DEEP MOISTURE                
STILL IN PLACE LEADING TO DECENT SNOWGROWTH. SO...MODERATE TO HEAVY             
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH 12 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7                   
INCHES. CURRENT WATCH HEADLINES STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH LONG                   
DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW GIVING ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST 10 INCHES            
IN MAY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THROUGH SAT...IWD VCNTY SHOULD                 
STILL BE FAVORED FOR GREATEST AMOUNTS.                                          
SUN...LES RATES SHOULD MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF            
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY DESCENDS INTO            
THE WRN LAKES OUT OF ONTARIO...PER GFS/ECMWF...HEAVIER RATES MAY                
PERSIST WITH CONTUING LES HEADLINES.                                            
MON-THU...THE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERALL                 
PATTERN...FEATURING A WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF OVER THE EAST...WILL              
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...TYPICAL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH               
THE TIMING/POSITION OF CLIPPER SHRTWVS MOVING INTO THE N CNTRL                  
CONUS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET SUGGEST THAT LES WILL DIMINISH FROM               
MON INTO TUE WITH RIDING HGTS AND H8 TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR -10C BY             
TUE AS A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV SLIDES THROUGH THE UPR MS VALLEY.                  
HOWEVER...SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE SLOWER/COLDER ECMWF IN RESPONSE              
TO RDG BUILDING TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS WOULD FAVOR BETTER LES                   
CHANCES THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF A              
STRONG SHRTWV CRESTING THE RDG AND CARVING A DEEP TROF OVER THE                 
LAKES...IT REMAINS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN. EVEN WITH                
TIMING UNCERTAINTY ...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z GFS SCENARIO WHICH             
WOULD BRING SYNOPTIC -SN OVER THE AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SHRTWV                  
FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO LES AS THE COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND               
IT. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS OFTEN IS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING HEIGHTS             
AND CLOSING OFF MID LVL LOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AN EXTENDED                 
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LES MAY DEVELOP BY THE END OF                       
THE WEEK.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING                   
FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084.                                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT                       
MIZ005-MIZ006.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1102 AM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                        
PRECIPITIATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A LOW OVER NORTHERN                     
ONTARIO...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTH PLAINS.               
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS OVER                
EASTERN U.P....EASTERN NORTH DAKOTAS...AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.                   
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER              
NORTHEAST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THROUGH SOUTHERN            
NORTH DAKOTA. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS PARKED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA.              
THE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN U.P. WILL RACE INTO QUEBEC...WHILE THE               
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVES INTO MINNESOTA. THE                   
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AN              
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL SWEEP INTO NORTHEAST                
WISCONSIN. OVERRUNNING OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DRAW MORE LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GIVE FAR              
WESTERN U.P. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF             
THE APPROACHING LOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THE INCREASE MOISTURE             
WILL DEVELOP CLOUD COVER THE MODELS SHOW DRY AT NEAR THE SURFACE.               
THUS WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE                  
RUNNING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TODAY IS             
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED SO MAY TWEAK SOME OF THE                        
TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE...THE FORECASTS LOOK GOOD.                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT EVENING                   
FOR MIZ001-MIZ002-MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ009-MIZ084.                                  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI EVENING THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT                       
MIZ005-MIZ006.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
840 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE JEMEZ TO CHC CATEGORY BASED              
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND ADDED 10 POPS FARTHER S INTO NE ZONE              
8...THE WEST MESA AND FOOTHILLS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE...THE SANDIA                 
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONE 11. CURRENTLY DECENT BAND OF PRECIP OVER            
AND S OF THE JEMEZ AND IS RACING SE. MUCH OF THIS BAND OF MOSTLY                
SNOW WILL FALL APART BEFORE REACHING THE DUKE CITY...BUT FEEL SOME              
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES WILL MANAGE TO REACH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.               
MENTIONED AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE JEMEZ OVERNIGHT               
AND AN INCH IN THE SANGRES. OTHERWISE REMOVED THE EVENING WORDING OF            
THE WINDS AN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.               
SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS. INCREASED SKY COVER              
OVER THE N SOME. TEMPS LOOK GOOD. CHJ                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...225 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006...WINDS ARE MAIN                   
CONCERN IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                    
WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERION THIS               
AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT AS YET MAINTAINED THOSE              
LEVELS.  EFFICIENT MIXING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND             
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO            
KEEP HUMIDITIES MORE MOIST THAN RED FLAG CRITERION.  RUC 250MB                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS 100KT TO 120 KT JET SHOWN PUNCHING INTO NORTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF STATE.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
NOSE OF THE UPPER JET IS COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS              
AND VIRGA.                                                                      
WINDS WILL HOLD UP FOR A TIME UNDER THE JET...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH               
SOMEWHAT...SO WILL ONLY GO BREEZY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.  WILL                 
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE                 
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM             
THE NORTH AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AID IN                  
UPSLOPE AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NORTHEAST AND EAST               
CENTRAL PLAINS.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS EVENING.                  
AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST                
WITH IT...OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN               
STRONG ON FRIDAY...MID AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN. INVERSION             
SEEN DEVELOPING AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAK              
MID AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LOWER                  
WINDS...LESS MIXING AND A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.                         
NEXT WIND MAKER APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER 120KT JET            
MAX PASSING OVER NE NM. ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...KD                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  27  49  21  54 /  10   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  20  51  10  58 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  23  51  14  59 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  28  63  25  69 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  17  39   5  47 /  30   0   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  47  17  52 /  10   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  17  38   6  43 /  30   0   0   0              
TAOS............................  17  45  10  50 /  20   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  25  48  20  53 /   5   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  27  50  21  55 /   5   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  23  51  18  57 /   5   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  34  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  56  24  60 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  31  52  25  55 /   5   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  56  25  60 /   5   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  31  58  25  64 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  30  51  20  51 /   5   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  54  24  56 /   5   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  32  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  31  53  23  56 /   0   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  20  48  15  53 /  20   0   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  27  50  20  55 /  10   0   0   0              
ROY.............................  27  47  22  52 /  10   0   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  26  51  22  56 /  20   0   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  31  54  26  61 /  10   0   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  57  23  59 /  10   0   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  61  26  61 /   5   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  32  59  26  58 /   5   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  31  61  26  61 /   5   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  39  64  28  63 /   0   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM                                         
225 PM MST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WINDS ARE MAIN CONCERN IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW              
FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                          
WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY TOUCHED SUSTAINED WIND ADVISORY CRITERION THIS               
AFTERNOON IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT HAVE NOT AS YET MAINTAINED THOSE              
LEVELS.  EFFICIENT MIXING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AND             
WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED HIGH ENOUGH TO            
KEEP HUMIDITIES MORE MOIST THAN RED FLAG CRITERION.  RUC 250MB                  
ANALYSIS SHOWS 100KT TO 120 KT JET SHOWN PUNCHING INTO NORTHERN                 
PORTIONS OF STATE.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
NOSE OF THE UPPER JET IS COINCIDENT WITH AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS              
AND VIRGA.                                                                      
WINDS WILL HOLD UP FOR A TIME UNDER THE JET...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH               
SOMEWHAT...SO WILL ONLY GO BREEZY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD.  WILL                 
MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS SOME OF THE                 
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM             
THE NORTH AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE.  WEAK COLD FRONT MAY AID IN                  
UPSLOPE AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP TO NORTHEAST AND EAST               
CENTRAL PLAINS.  BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE THIS EVENING.                  
AS THE UPPER JET SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT EAST                
WITH IT...OUT OF NEW MEXICO.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN               
STRONG ON FRIDAY...MID AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN. INVERSION             
SEEN DEVELOPING AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME WEAK              
MID AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUE. THUS...EXPECT LOWER                  
WINDS...LESS MIXING AND A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES.                         
NEXT WIND MAKER APPEARS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER 120KT JET            
MAX PASSING OVER NE NM. ONCE AGAIN LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED            
WITH THIS SYSTEM...KD                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
FARMINGTON......................  27  49  21  54 /  10   0   0   0              
GALLUP..........................  20  51  10  58 /   0   0   0   0              
GRANTS..........................  23  51  14  59 /   0   0   0   0              
GLENWOOD........................  28  63  25  69 /   0   0   0   0              
CHAMA...........................  17  39   5  47 /  30   0   0   0              
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  47  17  52 /  10   0   0   0              
RED RIVER.......................  17  38   6  43 /  30   0   0   0              
TAOS............................  17  45  10  50 /  20   0   0   0              
SANTA FE........................  25  48  20  53 /   5   0   0   0              
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  27  50  21  55 /   5   0   0   0              
ESPANOLA........................  23  51  18  57 /   5   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  34  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  56  24  60 /   0   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  31  52  25  55 /   5   0   0   0              
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  56  25  60 /   5   0   0   0              
SOCORRO.........................  31  58  25  64 /   0   0   0   0              
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  30  51  20  51 /   5   0   0   0              
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  54  24  56 /   5   0   0   0              
CARRIZOZO.......................  32  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0              
RUIDOSO.........................  31  53  23  56 /   0   0   0   0              
RATON...........................  20  48  15  53 /  20   0   0   0              
LAS VEGAS.......................  27  50  20  55 /  10   0   0   0              
ROY.............................  27  47  22  52 /  10   0   0   0              
CLAYTON.........................  26  51  22  56 /  20   0   0   0              
SANTA ROSA......................  31  54  26  61 /  10   0   0   0              
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  57  23  59 /  10   0   0   0              
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  61  26  61 /   5   0   0   0              
CLOVIS..........................  32  59  26  58 /   5   0   0   0              
PORTALES........................  31  61  26  61 /   5   0   0   0              
ROSWELL.........................  39  64  28  63 /   0   0   0   0              
&&                                                                              
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nm                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
948 AM CST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...FORECAST LOOKING TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY. AT                        
15Z...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE ND/WC MN (LOOKS TO BE                
CENTERED JUST S OF GFK) WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E THROUGH THE                
DAY. AREA OF -SN ACROSS NW MN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER AREA 850MB               
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE E OF FA BY NOON. THEN...COLD FRONT                 
WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH FA TODAY. ASSOCIATED -SN NOW SPREADING                
INTO DVL BASIN WITH ADDITIONAL RETURNS EVIDENT FROM CANADIAN                    
RADAR NETWORK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE WAVES WHICH                 
WILL ROTATE THROUGH FA TODAY. 12Z RUC DEPICTS THESE WAVES                       
WELL...AND SHOWS ASSOCIATED 850MB-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AS 850MB-                 
700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SWINGS THROUGH. WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS N               
FA. LIGHT WINDS WITH BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY                  
HIGH MOITURE HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...AND WILL MENTION               
UNTIL AFTER FROPA. WINDS STILL LOOK TO INCREASE...BUT NOTHING MORE              
THAN 25 MPH. WILL EVALUATE TEMPERATURE GRID AND ADJUST                          
ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT MANY CHANGES ANTICIPATED. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT              
WILL BE SENT BY 1030AM.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
852 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW JUST                  
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THUS FAR...WITH                      
HEAVIER RAIN LOCATED WELL TO THE W AND SE. COMPARING MODEL QPF IN               
THE 18Z GFS AND NAM...WITH RADAR COMPOSITES...NEITHER IS DOING                  
WELL WITH PRECIP THAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING...AS CONVECTION ALONG               
THE S CAROLINA AND GA COAST NOT WELL HANDLED.                                   
STILL THINK WILL GET PRECIP FILLING IN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...AS                  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SE AND S LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND                 
UPPER DYNAMICS IMPROVE...WITH VORT LOBE CROSSING THE AREA.                      
STILL...LIKELY NOT A HIGH QPF EVENT FOR MOST PLACES...WITH AMOUNTS              
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO ANY                
CONVECTION.                                                                     
CONCERNING THUNDER POTENTIAL...STARTING TO SEE SOME LOWER 50S                   
DEWPTS WORKING INTO CENTRAL N CAROLINA...AND THESE WILL LIKELY                  
GET INTO AT LEAST SE ZONES OVERNIGHT. RUC CAPE AND LIFTED INDEX                 
PROGS SHOW MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LIKEWISE SHIFTING RAPIDLY NWD            
OVERNIGHT...REACHING AS FAR N AS PERHAPS FAR SE ZONES...SO STILL CANNOT         
RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THERE...LATE.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 318 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
MILD WX CONTG THIS AFTN...AS CLDNS FM THE SW GRDLY INCRSS. LO PRES              
MVG ACRS NRN MS THIS AFTN...MVS NE OVRNGT...REACHING WRN PA FRI                 
MORNING. TWO AREAS OF PCPN ASSOCD W/ THE LO...ONE FM SRN GA INTO                
ERN GOM...THE OTR MVG THROUGH TN/OH VLYS. PER STUDIES AT RAH/NC                 
ST...WATCHING CNVTN TO OUR S WHICH MVS OFFSHR TNGT...AND PTNTLLY                
ROBS MSTR SOURCE THIS FAR N. THE PCPN TO THE W WON'T BE A FACTOR                
IN WX HERE AS LO PRES PASSES NW OF RGN. WL CONT W/ HIEST POPS ESE               
SXNS THRUT NGTTM HRS...EVEN PSBL T IN SE VA/NE NC. LIKELY POPS FOR              
ALL OTR AREAS...THO THERE WL BE A TREND TO LWRG POPS AFT 06Z ACRS               
SCNTRL/CNTRL VA AS STRNGST UVM PUSHES THROUGH.                                  
SWLY FLO TAKES OVR FRI...LEADING TO SGFNT DRYING BY MID/LT MORNING              
HRS. HOLDING ONTO CHC POPS NE QTR OF FA ERY. OTRW...XPCTG P/MSNY                
W/ TEMPS WRMG INTO 60S (EVEN LWR 70S FAR INTR SXNS IN SCNTRL VA).               
FOR REFERENCE...INCLDD RCRD HI TEMPS BLO (FOR FRI 2/3).                         
AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT W OF MTNS FRI NGT...RESULTING IN DVLPG SFC              
LO PRES INVOF SRN MTNS. AS THAT LO PRES TRACKS NE IN THE MTNS DURG              
THE NGTTM/ERY SAT MORNING HRS...XPCTG ANOTHER RND OF MSTR TO SPRD               
INTO RGN. NOT READY TO GO W/ LIKELY OR HIER POPS YET...LMTG POPS TO             
CHC SINCE THERE MAY BE SEPARATION BTWN UVM/PCPN NR THE CST...AND                
UVM/PCPN ALG-WNW OF LO PRES TRACK. DRYING TREND AGN BY SAT AFTN AS              
LLVL FLO TURNS WSW...W/ LMTD EFFECTS BY LLVL CAA (ON TEMPS). HI                 
TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NR 60.                                                      
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                  
+PNA PTRN DVLPG IN THE XTNDD...KPG TROUGH ALOFT IN THE ERN PART OF              
CONUS...RDGG OUT W. XPCTG RETURN TO NR NRML TEMPS (GENLY 40S BY                 
DAY/20S AT NGT MOST PLCS) THROUGH MID NEXT WK.                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN MOVES IN AFTER 3Z WITH               
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FROM SW TO NE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE            
HEAVIER SHOWERS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 3Z AND 8Z. CIGS STAY MVFR                   
THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...THEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.                                      
MARINE...                                                                       
S WNDS INCRSNG TNGT WILL ALLOW FOR SCA CRITERIA FOR WNDS IN THE BAY             
AND FOR SEAS ON THE CST...AND LAST THRU FRI. SCA CONDS POSSIBLE                 
AGAIN SAT AFTN THRU SUN...WITH NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRNTL                 
PASSAGE.                                                                        
CLIMATE...                                                                      
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FRI                                                           
      2/3                                                                       
RIC 77/1989                                                                     
ORF 81/1989                                                                     
SBY 73/1939                                                                     
ECG 82/1989                                                                     
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7          
     PM FRIDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM               
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM               
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...25                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7          
     PM FRIDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM               
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM               
     FRIDAY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...REILLY                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1025 AM CST THU FEB 2 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE COMING BY 1630Z TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER                  
TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA/ AND WILL ALSO BE DROPPING                
PCPN CHANCES IN FAR NRN CWA.                                                    
MORNING RUC/RAOBS SHOWING BROAD H5 TROF ACROSS UPR MIDWEST WITH                 
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE TROF. ONE DISTURBANCE               
IN WRN ND WILL BE THE PRIMARY WAVE THAT DRIVES A SURFACE COLD                   
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A PRETTY NICE PUSH OF COLD AIR               
BEHIND IT...AND A SECOND WAVE OUT AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE NEB/KS                  
BORDER WHICH WILL ROTATE E/NE THROUGH THE TROF INTO SRN AND ERN                 
WISC TONIGHT. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S WEAK                  
WAVE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME NICE CLEARING FOR TODAY...THOUGH                      
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROF               
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND               
THESE SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE DAY WINDS DOWN. WARM                   
FRONT AT 15Z ROUGHLY ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH VERY MILD AIR IN IA              
CREEPING IN ON SWLY FLOW. 15Z RUC SUGGESTING 925MB TEMPS /+3 TO                 
+7/ WILL MIX DOWN IN SOME FASHION...ESPECIALLY SWRN CWA. WILL BE                
BUMPING MOST AREAS UP A FEW DEGREES WHICH APPROACHES RECORDS IN                 
NERN IA. WILL ALSO GO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON IN                  
MOST AREAS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
243 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST                  
FLORIDA. ORGANIZED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED THE LEADING EDGE OF THE              
CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                    
HOWEVER...LAST HOUR HAS SEEN THIS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION SLOW WITH                
STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS                   
SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND THE LATEST RUC WHICH               
SHOW THE BEST LIFT HOLDING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA                    
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. MUCH DRIER NAM SOLUTION IS                       
DISCOUNTED. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF                    
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PLACE THE                
AREA IN A FAVORABLE JET QUADRANT HELPING ENHANCE LARGE SCALE                    
ASCENT AS SECOND SFC LOW IN AS MANY DAYS DEVELOPS ALONG THE                     
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS              
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE INTO                   
TONIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH WITH A DRY AIR MASS                    
MOVING IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE              
FAVORED THE GFS PRETTY HEAVILY. PROBABLY COULD HAVE GONE WITH                   
HIGHER POPS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE BULK              
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END OF TODAY.                                    
LOW LEVEL JET NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY AND                      
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AND DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS SO SEVERE WX WILL CERTAINLY BE A                  
POSSIBILITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER                
NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE                 
GREATEST.                                                                       
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS RETURNS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS               
MEAN EASTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING SUNDAY                
MORNING OVER INLAND AREAS BUT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO                  
AVOID A FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW.                                                   
.LONG TERM...EASTERN TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR                
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS                 
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM BUT THE WX                   
SHOULD OTHERWISE REMAIN DRY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO ONGOING STORMS BUT WILL                
DECLINE LATER TODAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TONIGHT CONTINUING              
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WINDS SHIFT TO WLY AS FRONT PASSES. HAVE                   
EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING DAY SHIFT TO                
DECIDE WHETHER TO DROP OR JUST CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. WEST WINDS            
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                       
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER             
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY DROPPING RH VALUES TO AROUND 30               
PERCENT WEST OF THE INTRACOASTAL.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
AMG  71  53  59  32 /  70  50  20  10                                           
SSI  70  57  62  35 /  70  70  20  10                                           
JAX  74  59  64  33 /  70  70  30  10                                           
SGJ  74  61  65  36 /  70  70  50  10                                           
GNV  75  58  63  33 /  70  70  40  10                                           
OCF  76  61  64  34 /  70  70  50  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING              
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM             
     OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60                 
     NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO                
     60 NM OFFSHORE.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...CAMP                                                                   
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
342 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO                   
SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION.           
SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF             
WV.  THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN                
MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT             
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.  MEANWHILE...A S/WV                 
ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE                  
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z.                
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA.                
AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS               
OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED              
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC               
POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN                
THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO                
30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST                  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON                 
TARGET.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD                
INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA.  COLDER            
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN              
AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST                 
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH                 
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF                
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS             
LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED               
SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE             
LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS                  
DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND                    
PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL             
ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE             
IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX                  
PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY              
OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL                 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE                
DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM                
ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A             
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO            
RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE             
QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM                
WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF              
HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE               
GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP             
BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                          
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR               
SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE                
GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY                
LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER              
AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT             
CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY             
CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS            
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE              
SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS              
IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE            
AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS                
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE.             
WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP.              
IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM             
AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING.                                    
ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO                 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS            
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING             
TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET.              
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS             
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT                    
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE            
LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT              
ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP                    
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS               
THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO             
THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT              
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS                     
ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS               
CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND                      
BEYOND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
05Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR ERN KY.  THIS LOW IS            
FCST TO TRACK NE INTO WRN PA BY 12Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY             
18Z.  MID LVL SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS             
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACRS ERN INDIANA.  AM EXPECTING                 
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4                
HOURS...THEN...AS THE MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS NE INTO ERN               
MICHIGAN...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF.  KSBN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE            
WEST TO BE AFFECT BY AFOREMENTIONED PCPN...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY HERE             
IN THE SHORT TERM.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR AT KFWA TO              
MVFR AT KSBN.                                                                   
NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE                
MISSOURI.  THIS S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ERN ILLINOIS BY                   
12Z...THEN INTO NW OHIO BY 18Z.  SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING ACRS            
WRN ILLINOIS...AND THUS AM FCSTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACRS TAF                
SITES AFTER 12Z.  PCPN WILL TAPER OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS THE S/WV              
PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z.                                               
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN WISCONSIN SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS                
WILL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND               
06Z SATURDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR...                              
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE             
ERN TN VALLEY.  ATTM...WILL SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AT KFWA AND            
KSBN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS.                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN IS FCST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE TAF SITES            
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
305 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COMPLICATED WX NOW AND AHEAD. SFC LOW OVR OH WITH FIRST OF A SERIES             
OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL CARVE OUT A SUPER-ELONGATED TROF OVR THE               
APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVR SUPERBOWL                 
COUNTRY  SAT EVE AND CURLING NWD INTO ONTARIO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE              
A COMPLEX BATCH OF ENERGY BEGINS A RUN SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN            
ROCKIES TOWARD OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THE PAST WEEK HAS             
BEEN ONE OF THE WORST IN RECENT YEARS WITH MODELS FLIP-FLOPING ALL              
OVER THE PLACE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. 00Z GFS AND NOW THE 06Z                
ETA DAMPEN THE S/W AS THE CLOSED 500 LOW BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED              
AS IT ROTATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. FOR NOW THINK THE GFS IS TOO                  
FAR SOUTH AND EARLIER ETA WAS A BIT TOO FAR NORTH...THIS EVENTUALLY             
MEANS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM.               
FEEL THAT THIS BAND OF MOISTURE WILL ACTUALLY END UP COMING ACRS                
MO AND SOUTHERN HALF IL. 06Z ETA HAS VORT MAX OVR WEST PLAINS MO                
BY 12Z MONDAY...PCPN TRACK MAXIMUM IS USUALLY 120 MILES NORTH OF                
THE VORT MAX TRACK...THAT CNTRS IT PRETTY WELL OVER ST LOUIS.                   
I WOULD NORMALLY INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY BUT SINCE THE MODELS               
HAVE BEEN SO CRAZY WILL ONLY INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND                  
WAIT TIL TOMORROW NIGHT TO TRY TO HONE IN ON IT A LITTLE MORE.                  
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY THEN SO               
THERE'S NO PROBLEM WITH PCPN TYPE.                                              
THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN SOME TIME.  DEC 21ST               
WAS THE LAST DAY WE WERE BELOW NORMAL HERE AND AFTER THE THIRD                  
WARMEST JANUARY EVER THE COLDER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY WIND WILL SEEM               
COLDER THAN NORMAL.                                                             
IN SHORT TERM WILL KEEP AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING.                 
NO CLDS OVERHEAD...DRYING AMS...INCRSG LOW LVL WLY WNDS SHOULD                  
ALL COMBINE TO KEEP THIS A SHORT TERM EVENT.                                    
NEXT...LOW STRATUS IS RACING SEWD WITH LEADING EDGE REACHING                    
CENTRAL IA TO EXTRM SE NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE.  MODELS ALL HAVE                    
WLY FLOW AND DRYING AIR EATING IT AWAY AS IT MOVS INTO MO.  NOT                 
SO SURE THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN...HAVE IT DROPPING TO COLUMBIA                   
TO SPRINGFIELD IL BY 18Z AND REALLY THINK IT MAY BE MORE PROMINENT              
THAN THE MODELS FCST IT BUT WILL LEAVE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA                  
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR NOW.                                                           
PEDIGO                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHRTWV TROF OVR NERN AND E CNTRL MO WL MOV EWD               
THRU CNTRL SRN IL. BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DVLPD AHD OF THIS                 
FEATURE SW OF STL. THESE SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD PASS S OF STL. LOW                
LVL CLOUD CVR ARND 1500 FT IN THE STL AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOV E              
OF THE STL AND SUS TAF SITES ARND 12Z AS LOW LVL W-NWLY WNDS INCRS              
OVR THE CWA TOWARDS MRNG. LATEST RUC RH FCST AT 925 MB SHOW HIGH                
RH OF 80 PERCENT PUSHING E OF STL ARND 09Z. MOS CIG HGT GUIDANCE                
FOR STL IS A LTL SLOWER AS IT DOES NOT BRING THE CIG HGTS UP TO                 
VFR CONDITIONS TIL 12-15Z. MAY GO CLOSER TO THE QUICKER CLRG OF                 
THE RUC GUIDANCE AS THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AT                  
LEAST A LTL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. WHILE THIS BATCH               
OF STRATUS CLOUDS MOV E OF THE AREA BY MRNG...ANOTHER BATCH OF                  
STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVR THE NRN PLAINS BHND A CDFNT WILL                   
LIKELY PUSH SEWD INTO THE CWA DURING THE LT MRNG AND AFTN HOURS.                
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1108 PM CST THU FEB 2 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE 12Z SHORT-TERM MDLS (TIL SUNDAY)...H500 TROF OVR THE CNTRL CONUS            
WL SLOLY PROPAGATE EWD WHERE IT WL GET /FED/ A SERIES OF SHRTWVS AND            
FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A LO OVR THE UPR OH VLY AND TRACK INTO THE               
ERN GRTLKS.  THIS WL ALL RESULT IN THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A H500               
PTRN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THRU MUCH OF DECEMBER...AND SO AS ALL               
THINGS EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END...SO SHALL THIS UNUSUAL WRM SPELL              
THAT HAS SET RECORDS FOR JANUARY.  ANOTHER SHRTWV WL SLAM INTO THE              
PAC NW ERY SATURDAY AND THEN RPDLY MOV SEWD INTO THE SRN PLNS BY                
LATE SUNDAY.  MDLS ALL HV SIMILAR TRACKS AT H500 WITH THIS FEATURE              
FOR THE WKND...BUT DIFFER ON THEIR SFC REFLECTIONS...OF WHICH MDLS              
HV HAD A TREND OF TRACKING FURTHER TO THE S.  AT THE SFC...TROF                 
SWINGS THRU FA TNGT...WITH PRES GRAD TIGHTENING UP AND CYC CURV AT              
LO LVLS PERSISTING FRI/SAT.  SFC RDG THEN BLDS IN FOR SAT NGT AND               
SLIDES INTO THE NERN HALF OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.  GFS/NAM ALMOST                  
IDENTICAL THRU SAT...WITH ONLY REAL DIFFS OCCURRING WITH THE SHRTWV             
SYS ON SUNDAY.  PREFER THE FURTHER N NAM WHICH REPRESENTS A MORE                
CONSERVATIVE CHG FM PREV FCST THAN THE GFS...BUT IMPACTS ARE STILL              
SML AT THIS TIME.                                                               
FOR TNGT...VORT MX TRACKING ACRS NRN MO ATTM IS PRODUCING SCT SHRA              
ON ITS ERN/SERN FLANKS...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE TO ITS NE               
AND N.  VORT MX WL CONT TRACKING EWD ACRS NRN MO AND INTO W CNTRL IL            
THIS EVNG...AND THEN EXIT THE NRN FA SHORTLY AFT MDNGT.  HV ADDED               
SCT SHRA WORDING TO THE FCST FOR MAINLY THIS EVNG...WITH THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHRA ALMOST AS FAR S AS THE I-70 CORR AS THIS            
FEATURE PASSES TO THE N.  MOS TEMPS IN THE BALLPARK...AND DID NOT               
STRAY FAR FM.                                                                   
FOR FRI...CDFNT TO DROP THRU THE NRN FA DURG THE LATE MRNG HRS...AND            
THEN THE SRN HALF OF THE FA DURG THE ERY AFTN HRS.  CAA AT LO LVLS              
RATHER SGFNT AND SHUD RESULT IN FALLING TEMPS DURG THE AFTN FOR THE             
NRN THIRD OF THE FA AS SC CLDS RPDLY PUSH SWD BHND THE FNT IN THE               
MORE UNSTABLE AIR AT LO LVLS.                                                   
FOR SATURDAY...SHUD BE A CD DAY WITH PTSUNNY SKIES ACRS THE FA WITH             
LO LVL RDG BLDG IN FM THE W...WITH SOME MORE CLDS TO THE E...WHERE              
THE LO LVL CYC CURV WL HANG ON THE LONGEST.  COULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT            
A FLURRY IN THE ERN FA AS WELL...BUT LEFT OUT FM THE FCST FOR NOW.              
LO LVL RDG WL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVR A LARGER PART OF THE FA SAT NGT              
AND WL RESULT IN SOME OF THE CDST MIN TEMPS WE HAVE HAD IN SOME TIME.           
FOR THE EXTDD PD (SUN - THURS)...MDLS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGRMT THAT             
A MUCH MORE TYPICAL WINTERTIME H500 PTRN WL TAKE HOLD ACRS THE                  
CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE RDG OVR THE W AND LONGWAVE TROF OVR THE E...            
AND IS EXPCD TO AMPLIFY DURG THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.  A SERIES OF               
STG SHRTWVS WL PUSH SWD THRU THE FA DURG THIS PD.  THE FIRST WL                 
POTENTIALLY HV THE GREATEST IMPACT...PENDING THE TRACK...BUT THE                
MDLS HV BEEN TRENDING S ON THE TRACK WITH EACH RUN.  THE 12Z MDLS HV            
IT EVEN FURTHER S...WITH THE NAM FURTHEST N A LA THE 06Z DGEX.  FOR             
NOW...PREFER THE 06Z GFS/12Z NAM TRACK WHICH TAKES SFC LO THRU NERN             
OK WITH ONLY SML IMPACT TO THE SWRN FA FOR SUNDAY NGT/ERY MONDAY.               
P-TYPE SHUD BE ALL SNOW...BUT MUCH TOO ERY TO SPECULATE ON AMNTS                
WITH TRACK SO UNCERTAIN.  THE SECOND SHRTWV WL HV CONSIDERABLY LESS             
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WHEN IT PASSES OVHD TUES NGT...WITH MAIN                  
EFFECT BEING EXTRA CLDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL CD AIR.  THE THIRD                  
SHRTWV THEN PASSES THRU IN ADVANCE OF A POLAR VORTEX MOVG INTO THE              
GRTLKS.  THIS WL DELIVER A REINFORCING SHOT OF CD AIR AS WELL AS A              
SML CHC FOR PCPN.  TEMPS WL BE AOB NORMAL DURG THIS PD GIVEN THE                
VERY FAVORABLE PTRN.                                                            
TES                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SHRTWV TROF OVR NERN AND E CNTRL MO WL MOV EWD               
THRU CNTRL SRN IL. BAND OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DVLPD AHD OF THIS                 
FEATURE SW OF STL. THESE SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD PASS S OF STL. LOW                
LVL CLOUD CVR ARND 1500 FT IN THE STL AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOV E              
OF THE STL AND SUS TAF SITES ARND 12Z AS LOW LVL W-NWLY WNDS INCRS              
OVR THE CWA TOWARDS MRNG. LATEST RUC RH FCST AT 925 MB SHOW HIGH                
RH OF 80 PERCENT PUSHING E OF STL ARND 09Z. MOS CIG HGT GUIDANCE                
FOR STL IS A LTL SLOWER AS IT DOES NOT BRING THE CIG HGTS UP TO                 
VFR CONDITIONS TIL 12-15Z. MAY GO CLOSER TO THE QUICKER CLRG OF                 
THE RUC GUIDANCE AS THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SEEMS TO SHOW AT                  
LEAST A LTL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRATUS DECK. WHILE THIS BATCH               
OF STRATUS CLOUDS MOV E OF THE AREA BY MRNG...ANOTHER BATCH OF                  
STRATUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVR THE NRN PLAINS BHND A CDFNT WILL                   
LIKELY PUSH SEWD INTO THE CWA DURING THE LT MRNG AND AFTN HOURS.                
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
640 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPR LVL S/WV AND ASSOCD VORTICITY MAX OVER NE ILLINOIS THIS MORNING             
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SERN MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z.  AS IT            
DOES...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAX.               
WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS AT BOTH KSBN AND KFWA BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z ALONG            
WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS              
AFTER 18Z AS SFC WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE...ALLOWING SFC VSBYS TO                 
IMPROVE AND CIGS TO RISE.                                                       
A WINTER STORM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND                
MIDDLE OHIO VLY REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.  A COLD FRONT                      
...EXTENDING FROM CNTRL WISCONSIN...ERN IOWA...THEN INTO SRN                    
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACRS THE TAF SITES                  
TONIGHT.  COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS                
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.  THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHC OF RAIN/SNOW                
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF             
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IS                
FCST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VLY...WITH MOISTURE                 
WRAPPING WEST/NORTHWEST INTO INDIANA.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
AREA OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING FOG WITH VSBYS                      
DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SPOTS.  HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION               
MORNING FOG...AND WILL ISSUE A NOWCAST HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY DENSE               
FOG.  NEW GRIDS/DIGITAL DATA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                            
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO                   
SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION.           
SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF             
WV.  THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN                
MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT             
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.  MEANWHILE...A S/WV                 
ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE                  
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z.                
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA.                
AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS               
OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED              
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC               
POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN                
THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO                
30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST                  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON                 
TARGET.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD                
INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA.  COLDER            
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN              
AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST                 
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH                 
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF                
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS             
LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED               
SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE             
LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS                  
DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND                    
PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL             
ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE             
IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX                  
PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY              
OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL                 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE                
DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM                
ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A             
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO            
RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE             
QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM                
WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF              
HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE               
GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP             
BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                          
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR               
SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE                
GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY                
LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER              
AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT             
CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY             
CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS            
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE              
SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS              
IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE            
AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS                
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE.             
WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP.              
IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM             
AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING.                                    
ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO                 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS            
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING             
TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET.              
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS             
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT                    
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE            
LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT              
ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP                    
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS               
THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO             
THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT              
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS                     
ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS               
CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND                      
BEYOND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                            
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
530 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AREA OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING WERE SHOWING FOG WITH VSBYS                      
DROPPING TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SPOTS.  HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO MENTION               
MORNING FOG...AND WILL ISSUE A NOWCAST HIGHLIGHTING LOCALLY DENSE               
FOG.  NEW GRIDS/DIGITAL DATA WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO                   
SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION.           
SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF             
WV.  THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN                
MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT             
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.  MEANWHILE...A S/WV                 
ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE                  
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z.                
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA.                
AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS               
OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED              
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC               
POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN                
THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO                
30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST                  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON                 
TARGET.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD                
INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA.  COLDER            
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN              
AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST                 
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH                 
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF                
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24 HOURS             
LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE EXPECTED               
SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING THE SURFACE             
LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS                  
DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY AND                    
PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL             
ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE             
IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.                             
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX                  
PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY              
OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL                 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE                
DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM                
ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A             
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO            
RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE             
QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM                
WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF              
HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE               
GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP             
BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                          
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR               
SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE                
GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY                
LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER              
AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT             
CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY             
CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS            
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE              
SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS              
IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE            
AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS                
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE.             
WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP.              
IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM             
AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING.                                    
ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO                 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS            
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING             
TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET.              
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS             
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT                    
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE            
LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT              
ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP                    
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS               
THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO             
THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT              
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS                     
ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS               
CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND                      
BEYOND.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
05Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR ERN KY.  THIS LOW IS            
FCST TO TRACK NE INTO WRN PA BY 12Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK BY             
18Z.  MID LVL SYNOPTIC DEFORMATION AXIS ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS             
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACRS ERN INDIANA.  AM EXPECTING                 
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE AT KFWA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4                
HOURS...THEN...AS THE MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS PIVOTS NE INTO ERN               
MICHIGAN...PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF.  KSBN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE            
WEST TO BE AFFECT BY AFOREMENTIONED PCPN...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY HERE             
IN THE SHORT TERM.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR/LIFR AT KFWA TO              
MVFR AT KSBN.                                                                   
NEXT FEATURE TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NE                
MISSOURI.  THIS S/WV WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO ERN ILLINOIS BY                   
12Z...THEN INTO NW OHIO BY 18Z.  SHOWERS WERE ALREADY OCCURRING ACRS            
WRN ILLINOIS...AND THUS AM FCSTING SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACRS TAF                
SITES AFTER 12Z.  PCPN WILL TAPER OFF AT THE TAF SITES AS THE S/WV              
PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION BY 18Z.                                               
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM WRN WISCONSIN SWWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS                
WILL EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND               
06Z SATURDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR...                              
AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE             
ERN TN VALLEY.  ATTM...WILL SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS AT KFWA AND            
KSBN BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR CIGS.                    
SYNOPTIC SCALE PCPN IS FCST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACRS THE TAF SITES            
TOWARD 12Z SATURDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HICKMAN                                            
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
914 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BAND OF SNOW SLOWLY MARCHING EWRD ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE FA THIS              
MRNG. BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW STRETCHES FROM APPROX MORA TO                       
LITCHFIELD TO NEW ULM...WITH THE HEAVIEST ECHOES FROM THE NERN                  
SUBURBS OF THE TWIN CITIES TO JUST N OF AEL. THIS SNOW BAND IS                  
ASSOC WITH STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER/MID                    
LEVELS...EVIDENT ON THE PLAN VIEW PLOTS OF THE 12Z RAOB DATA AND                
IN WV IMAGERY. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS TEMP GRADIENT MOVES                 
SLOWLY EWRD THRU THE LATE MRNG AND AFTN HOURS...AS THE VIGOROUS                 
UPR SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVR WRN MN PUSHES INTO WRN WI BY LATE                   
AFTN/EVE. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONGER ECHOES ON 88D /30 TO 35              
DBZ/...SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT LARGE...AND AS A                      
RESULT...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF                
THE DAY /PSBLY AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF AT MOST/. HAVE                     
RETOOLED POP/WX/SNOW AMT FCST SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THESE                
DATA.                                                                           
NEXT CONSIDERATION IS SKY COVER. THERE SEEMS TO BE LITTLE RHYME OR              
REASON BEHIND THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SKY COVER ACRS PORTIONS OF                
THE FA...WITH SATELLITE AND SFC OBS SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN W CNTRL              
MN THIS MRNG...ALTHO LO STRATUS IS MOVING IN FROM THE N AND IS                  
ALSO HANGING ON IN THE E IN THE AREA OF THE SNOW BAND. ATTM...HAVE              
GENERALLY GONE WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS W CNTRL MN WITH THE                
CLD COVER HANGING ON ACRS A GOOD PORTION OF E CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL              
WI THRU THE EVE AND OVRNGT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED THRU               
THE DAY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.                                                  
UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY AVBL.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD AIR WE'VE SEEN FOR SOME TIME NOW PUSHING                
ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA.  3 AM TEMPERATURES JUST NW OF             
CWA GETTING DOWN TO NEAR ZERO.  MOST AREAS ARE ABOUT AS WARM NOW AS             
THEY WILL BE THRU THE DAY. RATHER SHARP UPPER TROF WITH A COUPLE OF             
EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ALSO SHAKING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW...WHICH MAY                
GIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMUATION THIS MORNING IN THE N                
CWA. ALSO JUST AHEAD OF THE PUSH OF COLD AIR SOME PATCHY FREEZING               
DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED.  THIS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED IN EC MN                
(12Z) AND INTO THE MID MORNING IN WC WI UNTIL COLD AIR RUSHES IT.               
ALSO COMBO OF GUSTY NW WINDS IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION COUPLE WITH               
FALLING SNOW WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN WESTERN CWA               
FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOULD GET DOWN NEAR ZERO IN            
W AREAS TONIGHT WHERE SOME CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NAM              
IS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A CHANCE OF SOME -SN INTO SW MN ON                  
SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...BUT OTHER            
MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TO OUR SW.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY                
FORECAST FOR NOW.                                                               
LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY                                             
TREND OF 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF COMING INTO LINE AS LONG ADVERTISED              
ARCTIC AIR INVASION IS ON THE WAY.  SOME MODIFICATION OF COLD AIR               
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN PERIOD...AS CWA REMAINS LOCKED IN NORTHWEST FLOW            
ALOFT...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.  WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE             
POPS OVER WESTERN CWA FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD.  THEN NEXT                
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS LATER WEDNESDAY.  SOME WARMING                  
SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AS WELL.  THEN CLIPPER/ARCTIC FRONT             
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WILL MENTION                
CHANCE SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN CWA DURING THIS PERIOD.  COLDER             
ARCTIC AIR FILTERS IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE             
OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY.                                               
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...MSAS ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT                 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE CWA UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. MOST                       
NOTABLY...MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 60 DEGREES                    
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HOWEVER...AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS WILL             
REACH MID 70S TODAY...SO WILL DROP MAX TEMPS MORE TOWARD THE LOWER              
70S.                                                                            
RUC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE FIRST POSSIBILITY OF RAINFALL TO                  
ARRIVE IN THE CWA WILL ORIGINATE MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS                   
AFTERNOON AS THE ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT FROM LAST NIGHTS SYSTEM                 
REFORMS AS THE WARM FRONT OF A NEWLY DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE GULF OF            
MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE              
AREA BECOMES POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW SYSTEM AS IT              
TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SOUTHERN MOST PORTIONS OF             
THE CWA WILL SEE THIS RAINFALL FIRST. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS             
MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BELIEVE THAT THE MORE            
ORGANIZED EVENT WILL BE TOWARD EVENING.                                         
BEST CHANCE DYNAMICS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER                
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE              
WEST. GFS BRINGS LOWEST LIFTED INDICES INTO THE REGION IN THE                   
EVENING AS WELL AS THE BEST LIFT.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY OBS ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN 06Z MMG                
GUIDANCE...WITH BUOY 4 AROUND 17 KT AND BUOY 8 AROUND 12 KT. EVEN               
THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE...WINDS ARE                
GOING TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN LATE             
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREFORE...WILL REWORD COASTAL FORECAST AND              
TAKE OUT THE SCA FOR NEARSHORE SC WATERS UNTIL 06Z. AT THAT                     
TIME...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE IN PLACE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES            
TO BRING ABOUT STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WATERS.                                  
CURRENT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OUTER GA WATERS ARE WELL ABOVE SCA                  
CRITERIA...WITH THE SABSOON R2 TOWER REPORTING 8 FOOT SEAS. WILL                
THUS MAINTAIN SCA FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AT TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT             
FEW HOURS...BUT EXPECT THEM TO BREAK DURING THE AFTERNOON.                      
OTHERWISE...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER WILL INCREASE BY THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ374.                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1059 AM CST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BY METAR            
OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CLOUDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND            
SOME SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF THE CWA POST               
FRONT AS WELL.  TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING INTO THE 30S...WITH             
A SWATH OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR A PRETTY GOOD               
TEMPERATURE SHIFT.  SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ARE ALREADY UP TO                     
50...WITH PLENTY OF TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CLIMB INTO THE                   
MID...IF NOT UPPER 50S.  PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE                        
FRONT...COMBINED WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS PER THE 12Z                        
SOUNDING...CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AREAS SOUTHEAST              
OF THE RIVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  LATEST RUC AGREES AND WILL BE                
UPDATING THE FORECAST FOR HIGHER TEMPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE             
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR AND CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS              
WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP THE EASTERN STATES TONIGHT               
AND SAT KEEPING BRUNT OF ITS PRECIPITATION EAST OF IL. TEMPS STILL              
APPEAR TO COOL BACK TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND STAY SEASONABLY COOL             
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US              
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...A MAJOR UPPER AIR                  
PATTERN CHANGE. MODELS DIFFER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON WITH HANDLING                
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. GFS/UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS MORE SIMILAR WITH            
KEEPING LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND ASSOCIATED QPF SOUTH OF CENTRAL IL               
FROM I-64 SOUTH. NAM IS THE OUTLIER MODEL WITH MUCH FURTHER NORTH               
TRACK AND QPF ACROSS CENTRAL AS FAR NORTH AS I-80. WILL LEAN TOWARD             
CONSENSUS THOUGH GFS QPF MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH.                            
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
DECENT SHORT WAVE DEPICTED BY RADAR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER NORTH             
CENTRAL IL OVER WOODFORD COUNTY AND MOVING ENE. AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS            
SPINNING AROUND IT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILX FORECAST AREA NORTH             
OF I-72. HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS RECENTLY MOVED NE ACROSS MCLEAN                   
COUNTY. AREAS OF FOG OVER SW IL SW OF SPRINGFIELD AND AROUND                    
EFFINGHAM TO SALEM WHERE THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD                 
COVER. 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NW WI WITH ITS COLD FRONT                  
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NW MO. 997 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS                
JUST WEST OF PITTSBURGH IN FAR EASTERN OHIO. TEMPS NEAR DEWPOINTS IN            
THE MID 30S OVER WEST CENTRAL IL FROM JACKSONVILLE WEST WHERE THERE             
WAS SOME CLEARING AND LOWER 40S EAST OF I-55.                                   
SHORT WAVE EXITS NE OF AREA BY MIDDAY TAKING RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT AS            
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS IL TODAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT              
RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS               
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA               
INTO NW IL ALONG WITH 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO MINUS 6 TO 8C NW BY               
SUNSET. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NW WHICH CLIMB LITTLE FROM CURRENT               
TEMPS...THEN FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS AFTERNOON WITH              
NW WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS IN THE             
MID 40S CENTRAL AREAS AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER SE IL. THIS              
WILL BE THE 44TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE DEC              
22. STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF INTO IL BY DAWN SAT AND TO KEEP CHANCE              
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TONIGHT AND SAT. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM               
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND DEEPENS LOW                   
PRESSURE NNE FROM AL PA BY SUNSET SAT. THIS TRACK A BIT FURTHER WEST            
BUT STILL KEEPS MOST QPF EAST OF IL WITH SNOW LIKELY OVER EASTERN               
INDIANA EAST OF INDY SAT. TEMPS COOL BACK TO NORMAL SAT WITH HIGHS              
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COOLING A BIT EACH RUN.             
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS EAST OF IL SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH             
DRY WEATHER AND CLOUDS DECREASING FROM THE WEST...BUT STAYING                   
SEASONABLY COOL WITH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AGAIN.                        
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...                                    
EXTENDED MODELS TAKE STORM SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTO THE             
MID/LOWER MS VALLEY BY MON. NAM IS FURTHER NORTH THAN OTHER THE                 
MODELS AND LAST RUNS WITH IT LOW AND ASSOCIATED QPF. DISCOUNTED THE             
NAM FOR NOW SINCE AN OUTLIER...THOUGH GFS QPF MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH.             
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON AND THINK                 
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. SHORT WAVES DIVING DOWN              
INTO UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN US NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP IT                
SEASONABLY COOL. COULD ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY THU              
AND SNOW CHANCES LOOKS BETTER NE OF CENTRAL IL OVER THE GREAT LAKES             
WHERE STRONGER SHORT WAVES PASS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HJS/HUETTL                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1256 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE RAIN HAS BASICALLY MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THERE               
ARE SOME WEAK RAIN SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH                
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL THAT THEY WOULD                  
HIT SBN AND THEY ARE ALSO WEAKENING. SO HAVE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON                
DRY. BARELY VFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT SBN AND FOR THE MOST                  
PART SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THIS EVENING A WEAK              
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS BACK TO SBN.                
LOOKING AT FWA AND TO WHAT IS TO THE WEST OF THERE...MVFR CEILINGS              
WILL REMAIN THERE. THERE IS A MAINLY CLEAR AREA IN CENTRAL TO                   
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BUT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN BY THE TIME IT WOULD               
REACH SBN AND FWA. IF IT WOULDN'T THEN THE CLEAR TIME WOULD NOT                 
LAST THAT LONG. THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS A                    
DEVELOPING LOW MOVES TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. AS THIS LOW TRACKS                
BY JUST TO THE EAST OF HERE...IT WILL BRING SNOW TO SBN AND FWA.                
JUST AT THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE WIND              
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO                   
INCREASE ALSO.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 342 AM EST)                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...SO SO                
WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE RUC/NAM DUE TO BETTER MESOSCALE RESOLUTION.              
SFC ANALYSIS AT 08Z DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NRN PANHANDLE OF             
WV.  THIS LOW...AND ITS ASSOCD MID LVL DEFORMATION AXIS ACRS ERN                
MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST OHIO/EXTREME NE INDIANA...WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT             
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH 12Z.  MEANWHILE...A S/WV                 
ALOFT WAS LOCATED OVER W CNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE                  
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z...THEN INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY 18Z.                
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRAVERSE ACRS THE CWFA.                
AT THIS POINT...THE BEST LIFT WILL BE ACRS THE NRN/WRN TWO THIRDS               
OF THE CWFA...IN WHICH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE EMPLOYED              
THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WILL JUST HAVE CHC               
POPS...OR NEAR 50 PERCENT. THEREAFTER...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN                
THE WAY OF PCPN AS DNVA WILL TAKE OVER...SO HAVE REDUCED POPS TO                
30 AND 40 PERCENT AFTER 18Z. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT FCST                  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH STILL LOOK ON                 
TARGET.                                                                         
FOR TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM WRN WISCONSIN...SWWD                
INTO NW IOWA/NRN NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA.  COLDER            
AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN              
AND SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST                 
TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.                                                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY                                                       
THERE HAVE BEEN DRASTIC MODEL CHANGES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH                 
RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT                  
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 00Z/02 MEAN SOLUTION OF                
GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGESTED A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST LOW. JUST 24                   
HOURS LATER THE 00Z/03 NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE                  
EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK ABOUT 400 MILES WEST...NOW TAKING                
THE SURFACE LOW UP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SPINE OF THE                         
APPALACHIANS. THIS DRASTIC CHANGE...PLUS RECENT VERY POOR MODEL                 
CONSISTENCY AND PERFORMANCE LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. IF              
SUBSEQUENT MODEL ITERATIONS CAN REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT                  
RUN...THEN CONFIDENCE IN THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION WILL BEGIN TO                 
INCREASE.                                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING PAINTS A HIGHLY COMPLEX                  
PICTURE WITH AN INTENSE PACIFIC JET CORE ARCING FROM THE PACIFIC NW             
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY              
OVER TEXAS NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL                 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE                
DAKOTAS. THE DEVELOPING WAVE OVER TEXAS AND THIS NORTHERN STREAM                
ENERGY IS NOW FORECAST TO RAPIDLY PHASE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND ALLOW FOR FULL LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO TAKE ON A             
NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO            
RAPID CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE             
QUICKLY BUILDS AND SHARPENS. 00Z NAM/GFS RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN              
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES FROM                
WESTERN VIRGINIA AT 12Z SAT TO WESTERN NY BY 06Z SUN. 00Z/03 ECMWF              
HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE MUCH FARTHER WEST SOLUTION...WHILE THE               
GEM IS FARTHER EAST AND WEAKER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THIS IS A FLIP             
BACK TO WHAT THE GFS HAS SHOWN ON AND OFF FOR THE LAST 10 DAYS FOR              
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                                          
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR               
SAT AND SAT NIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE                
GONE WITH RAIN OR SNOW SAT AM ACROSS NW OHIO GIVEN MILD BOUNDARY                
LAYER TEMPS INITIALLY...OTHERWISE EVENT WILL BE ALL SNOW AS COLDER              
AIR WRAPS INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING LOW. OF GREAT             
CONCERN IS LAKE ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL GIVEN DEEP/MOIST CYCLONICALLY             
CURVED FLOW CROSSING A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. H85 TEMPS            
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT ON SAT...BUT ARE COLD ENOUGH               
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT. SEEDER/FEEDER LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO POSSIBLE              
SAT PM AND SAT NGT GIVEN THE FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES. SINCE THIS              
IS A 3RD/4TH PERIOD EVENT HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE            
AND WILL DEFER TO DAY SHIFT. WOULD LIKE TO HAVE A FEW MODEL RUNS                
WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS BACK TO BACK BEFORE LOCKING INTO A HEADLINE.             
WILL ONLY OFFER GENERIC SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WORDING IN ZFP.              
IF ACCUMULATING SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE STRENGTHENING NW WINDS SAT PM             
AND SAT NIGHT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING.                                    
ON SUNDAY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE INTO                 
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN                 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C. THIS IS            
JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPES RISING             
TO AROUND 200J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5K FEET.              
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS             
COMBINED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIMIT LAKE EFFECT                    
POTENTIAL. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW SE OF THE            
LAKE...DROPPING TO LOW CHANCE SUN NGT. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT              
ALL FOR MON THROUGH WED WITH MEAN MID LEVEL TROUGH TAKING UP                    
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. COULD SEE SOME MINOR LAKE              
EFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING ACROSS               
THE GREAT LAKES. INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE FOR WED NGT INTO             
THURSDAY WITH GFS/GEM AND TO SOME EXTENT THE ECMWF DEPICT A POTENT              
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 12Z GFS                     
ENSEMBLES SHOWED STRONG SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO. FOLLOWING THIS               
CLIPPER A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE FOR FRI AND                      
BEYOND.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...30                                                                 
LONG TERM....44                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SN/LES TRENDS/AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.            
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD TROF OVER             
THE CNTRL CONUS WITH NMRS EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. THE TROF AXIS EXTENDED              
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY. ONE PROMINENT SHRTWV OVER SW            
WI AND ASSOCIATED 700-500 QVECTOR CONV SUPPORTED AN AREA OF MODERATE            
TO OCNLY HEAVY SNOW OVER NE WI INTO CNTRL UPR MI. MUCH LIKE                     
YESTERDAY 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM COMBINED WITH THE QG                
FORCING HAVE BROUGHT CONVECTIVE SN ELEMENTS WITH BRIEF HEAVY                    
SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED VSBYS. THE STRONGER SHRTWV LIFTING                   
THROUGH WI HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF COLDER AIR INTO W UPR MI               
WITH BAND OF -SN ASSOCIATED WITH 900-800 FGEN EDGING ONLY SLOWLY                
EASTWARD.                                                                       
TONIGHT... FCST LEANED TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER             
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION AND SHORT TERM TRENDS. AS               
THE WI SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE NE EXPECT AN AREA OF SNOW...MODERATE OR              
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES...TO AFFECT THE THE E HLF OF THE CWA. WHILE              
THE OVERALL PCPN AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS MAY BE A BIT HEAVY...AREA                 
WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LINGER COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.20-0.30             
INCH RANGE. SNOW/WATER RATIO WITH THE SYNOPTIC SNOW NEAR THE WARMER             
AIRMASS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE AOA 12/1...SO KEPT AMOUNTS IN THE             
2-3 INCH RANGE OVER THE SE. WHILE H8 TEMPS FALLING FROM -7C TO -12C             
BTWN 00Z-12Z ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR DECENT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...THE                
GREATER MID LVL DYNAMICS AND UPWARD MOTION REMAIN FARTHER TO THE                
EAST. SO...LES AMOUNTS WERE TRIMMED A BIT. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS                 
STILL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR WEST WHICH WILL BE FAVORED BY THE               
POSITION OF 850-700 THERMAL TROF AND CYCLONIC NRLY FETCH.                       
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE ERN LAKES DEEPENS               
NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH H8 TEMPS FALL A BIT FARTHER...INTO THE            
-12C TO -15C RANGE. SINCE THE FAVORED STRONGER/SLOWER GFS KEEPS THE             
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LONGER...EXPECT MORE FAVORABLE LES                
CONDITIONS THAN DEPICTED BY THE 12Z NAM. WHILE THE INSTABILITY WOULD            
BE MARGINAL FOR PURE LES...LINGERING QVECTOR CONV AND MOISTURE WITH             
THE DEEP MID LVL TROF INTO SAT EVENING SHOULD COMPENSATE AND KEEP AT            
LEAST MODERATE LES RATES GOING FOR LOCATIONS FAVORED BY NRLY WINDS.             
STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP SQUEEZE OUT DECENT                  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SO...GOING HEADLINES LOOK             
ON TRACK.                                                                       
SUN...THE GLBL MDLS SUGGEST THAT SHRTWV ENERGY FROM W OF HUDSON BAY             
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE WRN LAKES WHICH MAY KEEP BETTER LES                 
RATES GOING AS H8 TEMPS REMAIN NEAR -14C. STRONG NRLY WINDS WILL                
ALSO KEEP GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT GOING. SO...HEADLINES MAY                      
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.                                                 
MON...PER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET...THE DEEP MID/UPR LVL LOW AND THE H8                 
THERMAL TROF FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE LES TO              
DIMINISH.                                                                       
TUE-FRI...MDLS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A            
PROMINENT WRN NOAM RDG AND A TROF IN THE EAST. SOME WEAK LES MAY                
LINGER TUE AS A CLIPPER SHRTWV MOVES TO THE NRN PLAINS AND MS                   
VALLEY. WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN WAS PREFERRED WITH THE MORE             
SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV MOVING TOWARD THE GRT LAKES WED INTO THU...WAA               
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SILL SUPPORTS -SN CHANCES BY WED. EVENTUALLY LES            
WILL SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATER THU INTO FRI AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO            
THE REGION. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE...GFS MAY BE TOO FAR S WITH THE            
MID LVL LOW BY THU/FRI.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY            
FOR MIZ005-MIZ006.                                                              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-                     
MIZ003-MIZ004-MIZ084.                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST /5 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR                   
MIZ002-MIZ009.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
300 PM MST FRI FEB 3 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES STATIONARY FRONTAL                
BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA...AND CUTTING THROUGH WESTERN               
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING            
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN                
INTO CWFA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN SOUTH                    
DAKOTA...WITH A FEW PRODUCING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES. ALSO EXPECT SNOW              
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING WHERE LAST FEW            
RUNS OF RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING LI IN THE 0 TO -2                 
RANGE. SATELLITE SCANS HAVE SHOWN CU RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER THIS               
AREA. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT                    
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY                  
BRINGING A PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION. RIDGE MOVES OUT SATURDAY                 
EVENING AS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.                
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.              
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME              
ON SUNDAY GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.                         
ALSO...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF                
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH. EXPECT A LESSER CHANCE OF SNOW ON MONDAY AS              
TROF MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.                                                     
EXTENDED...AREA WILL BE WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN STRONG UPPER RIDGE              
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND DEEP TROF IN EASTERN U.S. UPPER FLOW WILL             
BE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE            
FORECAST AREA. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN EXTENDED MODELS WITH TIMING              
AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR INTRUSIONS. GFS ENSEMBLE MOS HAS A RANGE OF            
15-25 DEGREE DIFFERENCES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF               
THE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE COOLED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM KHEI-KPHP-KSFD WILL LINGER               
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE                 
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS.            
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd