AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
230 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGH LVL CLOUDS HAVE HELD AFTN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FCST.             
HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ARE PRODUCING HEAT             
INDICES AROUND ADVY CRITERIA. WILL LET ADVY EXPIRE WITH THIS FCST               
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
LATEST SFC DATA SHOWS CDFNT EXTENDS FROM SWRN MO BACK INTO NWRN OK.             
BNDRY HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGS INDCD BUT EXPECT IT TO            
SPEED UP THIS EVENING AND WORK INTO NWRN AR. AREA RADARS ARE QUIET              
ATTM...BUT LATEST RUC STILL SHOWING SCTD SHRA/TSRA FORMING BY THIS              
EVENING ALONG THE FNT AS UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES AND CAP ERRODES.                 
MENTIONED SCTD POPS TNGT ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT. LEFT SOME                    
LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FOR SERN AR THU MRNG ALONG DEPARTING               
FNT. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN ON NWLY                
WINDS THU AFTN AND NIGHT.                                                       
MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS IN THE LATER PDS.            
UPPER HIGH WILL CONT TO RETROGRADE WWD AND A SIG UPPER TROF WILL                
FORM OVER THE ERN PART OF THE NATION. RESULTANT NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACRS            
AR WILL PUSH LATEST CDFNT WELL S OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BLO             
NORMAL TEMPS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FROPA AND                   
PERSIST INTO SAT.                                                               
SFC HIGH PRES SLIPS E OF THE FA OVER THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING RETURN              
FLOW TO SET UP AND A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS. NWLY FLOW ALOFT               
WILL PREVAIL BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER ENERGY TO SUPPORT RAIN              
CHCS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                                      
THE NEXT CDFNT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT AR TUE AND WED...WHICH AGAIN IS             
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S DATA INDCD. HAVE PLACED CHC POPS IN            
FOR DAY 6 AND 7 WITH FROPA. GOING FCST TEMP TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED              
LOOK GOOD AND NO SIG CHGS MADE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
44                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ar                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
157 PM MDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                                 
ANOTHER WAVE OF MONSOONAL CLOUDS AND TSTMS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND             
IN RUC OVER SOUTHERN AZ. VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE APPEARS            
WELL PROGGED BY MAINLINE MODELS. LEADING EDGE OF PLUME OUGHT TO                 
SPREAD ACROSS CWA FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED              
POPS OVER SE UT AND SW CO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT THRU NOON            
THU NOON.                                                                       
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THU AFTERNOON. WILL                
STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST POPS...AS CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SURFACE            
HEATING AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT. TEMP AND POP GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND             
THU SHOW LESS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.               
CURRENT POPS SEEMED REASONABLE...WITH COOLER TEMPS THU AS WELL.                 
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER              
WEST TEXAS WILL BE SHIFTING WEST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH             
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.  EXPECT           
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OUR            
FLOW ALOFT SWINGS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.              
FRIDAY...REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL ALLOW             
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO FIRE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER                
TERRAIN.  LESS CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT WL ALLOW SFC                
TEMPS TO REBOUND FROM THE COOLER THURSDAY READINGS.                             
SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY WITH THE RIDGE                      
SHIFTING/REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS SHRTWV ENERGY SWINGS               
EAST THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES.  CURRENT GFS IS INDICATING THE NRN                
STREAM ENERGY WL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE...AND HAVE BOOSTED POPS OVER THE              
NRN ZONES AS TRAILING WAVE LKLY TO ENHANCE CONVECTION BY SATURDAY               
AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM THOSE SEEN ON FRIDAY.                    
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DRIER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WL PERSIST              
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONFINED TO ALONG           
THE DIVIDE IN WESTERN COLORADO...WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER           
THE HIGHER MTNS OF EASTERN UTAH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY            
PERSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR SEASONAL               
NORMS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
CJC/JDC                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING AND INCREASE RAIN                
CHANCES TO LIKELY CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND SPRINGFIELD AND                
JACKSONVILLE. STILL RATHER HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE               
80S WITH WARMEST READINGS OVER SE IL.                                           
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA            
INTO CENTRAL IL ALONG I-72 AND ACROSS NORTHERN MO TO 1009 MB LOW                
PRESSURE EAST OF KANSAS CITY. AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW              
OVER NE MO AND MOVING ESE INTO WESTCENTRAL IL FROM QUINCY SOUTH TO              
SAINT LOUIS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION EAST OF IL OVER SE INDIANA              
AND MOVING AWAY FROM IL. ALSO SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IL MOVING              
SOUTH WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CLOSE TO I-80 WITH DRIER AND                
COOLER CANADIAN AIR NORTH OF I-80 FILTERING SOUTH FROM 1028 MB HIGH             
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG. NOON TEMPS RANGE FROM MID 70S             
FROM PEORIA NW TO MID 80S SE IL. STILL MUGGY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE              
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...EVEN UPPER 70S FAR SE AT LAWRENCEVILLE.                
LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ESE ALONG FRONT THAT SAGS SOUTH FROM I-72                  
TOWARD I-70 BEFORE 00Z AND PAST LAWENCEVILLE AROUND SUNSET. RUC AND             
ETA DEVELOP QPF FROM I-72 SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE LIKELY                  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF            
I-72 WHERE ATMOSPHERE NOT AS UNSTABLE AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS AS            
SECONDARY FRONT SLIDING SOUTH TOWARD I-74 FROM I-80. MOST UNSTABLE              
AIR OVER FAR SE IL NEAR LAWRENCEVILLE WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S TO NEAR              
90 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND THIS AIR MASS SHIFTING             
GRADUALLY SE. THIS WILL BE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS             
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND SPC HAS SHIFTED SLIGHT RISK OF                  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAWRENCEVILLE FOR TODAY.                 
NOT AS HOT TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND FRONTS MOVING THRU WITH              
WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S FROM             
I-74 NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 SE IL.                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...SEVERAL MCS/S HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT            
HOURS OVER THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING FROM THE CHICAGO AREA                        
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST            
PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND TODAY...DRY AND COOLER WEATHER                
WILL BE THE RULE.                                                               
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...                                            
00Z ETA CONTINUES HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT              
TERM. AS OF 08Z...SURFACE LOW WAS OVER NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND                
WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS CWA...ALONG THE I-72 COORIDOR. MAIN               
CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL...                     
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-72...BUT WITH HIGH FLASH FLOOD VALUES WILL                
ONLY KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE ZONES. AS FOR               
ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SOME CONCERN FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN              
COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE NOT HAD ANY RAIN YET AND LI/S NEAR MINUS 4 AND            
CAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE RAIN SHOULD REACH THOSE AREAS               
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z...EFFECTIVELY KILLING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.                 
THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THESE AREAS COULD RECOVER ENOUGH FOR             
THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL HAVE A            
WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS...FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR 90 IN               
THE SOUTHEAST.                                                                  
LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING              
RAIN EAST OF I-57 THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END.                     
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WILL SEE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SINK SOUTH            
OVER THE REGION...BRINGING IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.                           
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...                                     
PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BY                     
SATURDAY...RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO              
RETURN TO THE REGION AND WE BEGIN A SLOW WARMUP. NEXT CHANCE FOR                
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE               
EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BYRD                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
326 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS               
TONIGHT.                                                                        
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW                   
FOUNDLAND...A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM NEW MEXICO NORTHWARD TO                     
SASKATCHEWAN...AND A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. A WEAK              
SHORTWAVE IS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA ROTATING                
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EAST COAST LOW. THIS WAS GENERATING SOME                
CUMULUS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. SURFACE            
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT             
DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE                 
PUSHED ALONG BY A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG.             
THE RIDGE IS DRAWING DRY AIR INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                        
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE U.P. THIS              
EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL              
CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE CENTERED                
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDING DATA            
INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRY WITH MEAN SURFACE-500MB RH              
LESS THAN 40 PERCENT. SURFACE TRAJECTORY FORECAST DRAWING THE AIR               
MASS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING INTO THE FORECAST AREA                   
THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS SHOWING A 5C DROP IN                    
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA AT 850MB TONIGHT. THUS THE OVERNIGHT LOWS            
SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. GUIDANCE AND TRAJECTORY FORECAST               
SUPPORTS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.                             
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE ACROSS THE MINNESOTA THROUGH            
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES            
ON FRIDAY...BLANKETING MUCH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO               
RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A SURFACE LOW            
WILL DEVELOP OVER SASKATCHEWAN ON FRIDAY. FRONTOGENESIS WILL PRODUCE            
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY STRETCHING FROM               
THIS LOW AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA. THE LOW  WILL MOVE INTO                     
NORTHEAST MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO                  
WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN FAIR AND DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.                                     
A MID LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY                
NIGHT AND MOVE TO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA ON SUNDAY...ALL THE WHILE                  
SENDING WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER MINNESOTA...AND SLOWLY            
BREAKING IT DOWN. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE ON                      
SUNDAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA.                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT COULD TRIGGER                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOOTS THROUGH THE                
RIDGE AND OVER THE AREA.                                                        
THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. GLOBAL IS WEAKEST AND                
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF            
IS THE SLOWEST WHILE GFS IS A COMPROMISE. GFS TREND ALSO IS FASTER.             
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SIMILAR TO GFS SO WILL FOLLOW THE GFS COMPROMISE AS             
WELL.                                                                           
THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE               
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN U.P. ESCORTING            
THE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI                
RIVER VALLEY. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL                 
SYSTEM AND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY OF THE FORECAST AREA                
GENERATING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE             
TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE                  
CENTRAL U.P. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE U.P. THROUGH TUESDAY. THE             
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.              
GFS IS KEEP PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER...THE RIDGE SHOULD            
BE DRAWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AND FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
845 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL            
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. 06Z AND 09Z RUNS OF GFS...ETA...AND RUC STILL            
HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. NEXT BATCH OF RAIN            
TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ONLY HAD ABOUT ONE TENTH TO HALF             
INCH OF RAIN OVER NRN IL AND NORTHWEST IN. GIVEN THAT THE FIRST                 
BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF                   
RAIN...AND THE FACT ONLY SOME MINOR URBAN FLOODING HAS                          
OCCURRED...WILL DROP THE FLOOD WATCH.  ANY ADDITIONAL STRONG                    
CONVECTION WILL FIRE WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...ALONG THE OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WILL ALSO TEMPER              
THE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE UPDATE.                                         
RBP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC WITH A TROUGH             
DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE              
DAKOTAS...WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER KANSAS WITH A FRONT                     
EXTENDING NORTHEAST THROUGH ILLINOIS TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.            
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A MULTITUDE OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM...FORMERLY              
SEPARATED INTO TWO DISTINCT MCS/S BUT NOT MORE WIDESPREAD.                      
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND TODAY...WITH PRECIP             
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERN. ETA/GFS BOTH STILL HAVE              
FEEDBACK ISSUES...BUT NOT NECESSARILY AS BAD AS EARLIER RUNS. ETA               
REMAINS MORE CONSISTENT COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS REGARDING THE TRACK            
OF THE SURFACE LOW /WHICH IS NOT GOOD/. HOWEVER THE GFS AND CANADIAN            
BOTH HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WAVE. ETA DID NOT CAPTURE              
THE FIRST MCS THAT SWEPT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. THIS               
SYSTEM ATE UP SOME OF THE LINGERING INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS                    
ENHANCED/PUSHED THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER SOUTH WITH ITS OUTFLOW.             
UPSTREAM COMPLEX OVER IOWA HAD BEEN TRACKING ALMOST DUE SOUTH INTO              
MISSOURI...BUT HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE UNSTABLE             
AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS WOULD BRING THE MORE STRATIFORM              
PRECIP NORTH OF THE COMPLEX THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER...BUT WITH THE               
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HIGHEST QPF SOUTH OF THE STATE. THIS IS                
CONTRARY TO THE ETA FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS MAIN BULLSEYE OF LIFT               
FROM THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS              
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND OVERALL SETUP...WOULD               
EXPECT THE HIGHEST QPF TO FALL FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND                 
OHIO. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH LATEST NCEP QPF AND EXCESSIVE                   
RAINFALL GRAPHICS.                                                              
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP...HOWEVER               
FIRST ONE WILL BE WINDING DOWN AROUND FORECAST ISSUANCE. LONG-LIVED             
SQUALL LINE IS ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL                      
LOWER/EASTERN INDIANA AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. LARGE             
AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...              
HOWEVER DRY AIR HAS BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR FARTHER NORTH. TIGHT                 
850MB THETA-E GRADIENT DEPICTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...ALONG WHICH            
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN BATCH.                 
FARTHER NORTH THERE IS NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF AND DRY AIR                   
FEEDING AROUND SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A            
SHARP CUTOFF IN QPF...AND WILL ONLY KEEP CHANCE RW ACROSS THE FAR               
NORTHERN CWA. FARTHER SOUTH THOUGH CATEGORICAL SHOULD BE BETTER.                
CURRENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE OUT JUST AROUND THE TECHNICAL                 
START OF THE FIRST PERIOD. HOWEVER NEXT AREA OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY               
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THESE TWO AREAS ARE              
BEGINNING TO FILL IN...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT NOT TRYING TO TIME A                 
BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO. WILL WORD THE GRIDS OCCASIONAL RAIN WITH                 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.                                                        
IN ADDITION TO COVERAGE OF PRECIP...INTENSITY IS ALSO A CONCERN. A              
JUICY AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OBSERVED AROUND 1.75" AT                 
00Z...HOWEVER VALUES POOLED AROUND 2" OR MORE ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.             
BASED ON UPSTREAM METAR REPORTS ACROSS WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS AND RECENT            
WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED...WOULD EXPECT ABOUT 0.50-1.00" OF PRECIP              
WITH THIS FIRST COMPLEX...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-69. THAT MUCH             
RAIN SHOULD NOT CREATE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM...HOWEVER QUESTION                 
REMAINS AS TO WHAT WILL FALL DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. AS                     
MENTIONED ABOVE...EXPECT HIGHEST QPF TO FALL FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD               
THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER BASED ON ADJUSTED MODEL GUIDANCE AND                   
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE ROUGHLY ANOTHER INCH OF             
QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS PRESENTS MORE OF A PROBLEM...WITH             
UP TO 2 INCHES TOTAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS IS THE SAME AREA             
WHICH SAW UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT WITH THE CONVECTIVE THAT             
DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA. EARLIER SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATED THE                   
HIGHEST VALUES FELL GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE OFFICE /E.G. TROY                
BLOOMFIELD DEARBORN WYANDOTTE/. THIS RAIN CAUSED A SOME RISES ON                
AREA RIVERS...AND IS ALSO WHY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWEST ACROSS             
THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR                 
TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA BASICALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59                    
/LIVINGSTON TO MACOMB/. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THE NORTHERN TIER OF                 
COUNTIES... ESPECIALLY SINCE MACOMB MAY RECEIVE THE LOWEST PRECIP IN            
THE WATCH AREA. /FARTHER EAST THE THE CWA THE DRY/STABLE AIR WILL               
DOMINATE LONGER...SO THEY WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH FROM THE CURRENT                 
EARLY MORNING SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST./                
HOWEVER THEY ALSO HAVE ONE OF THE LOWEST FFG VALUES GIVEN EARLIER               
RAIN...SO IT WOULD BE PRUDENT TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE WATCH.                     
OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE                     
FORECAST. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA              
THIS EVENING...UNTIL THE SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARS EAST. HOWEVER GIVEN              
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.               
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DIGS ACROSS THE REGION                     
TONIGHT...CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.                 
CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT                      
LAKES...LEAVING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN A SOMEWHAT BRISK NORTHERLY                
FLOW. ETA/GFS BOTH DROP 850MB TEMPS TO 5-6C IN THERMAL TROUGH THAT              
CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.                                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
247 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...                                           
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI HAS BEEN                     
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING TODAY...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE               
UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S.  A SPECIAL RAOB RELEASED               
SHORTLY BEFORE 200 PM INDICATED THAT THE MIXED LAYER CONVECTIVE                 
INHIBITION HAD WEAKENED TO AROUND 40 J/KG.  RUC SOUNDING PROGS SHOW             
THE CAP BREAKING BY 330-430 PM.  CUMULUS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER              
THE LAST 30 MINUTES WHICH ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING CAP.                       
SATELLITE TRENDS DEPICT A THIN LINE...INDICATIVE OF A PRE-FRONTAL               
TROUGH.  A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THIS FEATURE            
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...EVENTUALLY BUILDING DOWN INTO SOUTHWEST                 
MISSOURI AS THE LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  MIXED LAYER CAPES OF                
2000 - 2500 J/KG SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MICRO-BURSTS WITH               
THE STRONGER STORMS.                                                            
CRAMER                                                                          
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...                                                
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON AND                  
TONIGHT'S ACTIVE WEATHER.  THE COLD FRONT STALLED OUT TEMPORARILY               
OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA A              
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.  CLEARING SKIES ALONG WITH COPIOUS                 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY            
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS                       
EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  I MAY            
HAVE TO HOLD ON TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER MY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES             
INTO TONIGHT'S PERIOD DUE TO THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA WITHIN THE             
SECOND PERIOD.                                                                  
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS THE NORTHERN                   
AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.  THE SUMMER TIME RIDGE WILL             
CONTINUE TO RETREAT BACK INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  THIS WILL                
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO SCOUR OUT THE ENTIRE DEEP SOUTH AND                     
PENETRATE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT                  
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS             
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE               
50S AND 60S TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.                                         
LONG TERM (SATURDAY - TUESDAY)...                                               
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BOTH BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE               
WITHIN THE LONG TERM PERIODS.  RIDGE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD                     
EXPANSION ALLOWING A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO ANCHOR INTO THE EASTERN                
HALF OF THE CONUS.  THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY REGION               
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL               
SIGNALS OF SHORTWAVES AFFECTING THE AREA.  ONE SIGNIFICANT WAVE THAT            
THE LONG TERM MODELS POINT OUT PUSHES THROUGH BY MONDAY.  ONGOING               
FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.                       
OTHERWISE...WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION            
CHANCES ARE FORESEEABLE AT THIS POINT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN              
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS LIE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOUTHERN             
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE                   
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT WEDGES IN.  AS             
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL               
FALL TO AROUND 1000 FEET WITH THE DECK OF STRATUS THATS EXPECTED.               
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
CRAMER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
255 PM CDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
12Z ETA/GFS INITIALIZED WELL...AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH                
FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DIFFERENCES BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...WILL SIDE              
WITH 12Z ETA FOR DETAILS AS GFS SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH 500MB LOW                 
APPROACHING REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS DO HAVE SIMILAR                
TIMING WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH PERIOD...WITH              
QPF AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES NOTED. FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE                
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.                           
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM NORTH OF THE                
BORDER. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH             
700MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. RUC40 INDICATES                
700MB FRONTOGENESIS NEAR WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA BY                    
EVENING. HOWEVER...DRY AIR FILTERING IN WITH HIGH PRESSURE...THUS               
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH...WILL NOT MENTION.                
CENTER OF HIGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY MORNING            
WITH WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE              
AFTER SUNSET...SETTING UP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT DRIEST                     
AIR...LIGHTEST WINDS...AND THUS COOLEST LOW TEMPERATURES (MID 40S)              
ACROSS EASTERN FORECAST AREA. REMAINDER OF AREA SHOULD SEE DEW                  
POINTS...AND LOW TEMPS NEAR 50.                                                 
THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH UPPER RIDGE            
BUILDING OVER REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH                
DAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS AND LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EACH                  
PREVIOUS DAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED WITH DRY AIR (HIGH               
CONVECTIVE TEMPS) IN PLACE. STRONGER SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE TOP             
OF THE RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. WEAK               
SHORTWAVES THAT DO ENTER FORECAST AREA SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE             
AS MOIST AIR REMAINS WEST UNTIL SATURDAY.                                       
SATURDAY...SURFACE TROUGH TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY            
AFTERNOON. REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING                
WITH SLOWER SOLUTIONS. KEPT THUNDER CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                 
.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH WED...MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT...WITH                
UKMET NOT CUTTING OFF 500MB LOW AND GFS DEVELOPING A STRONG 500MB               
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE N PLAINS. ECMWF IS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION...SO             
LEANED TOWARDS IT FOR FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AREA AS              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SO KEPT CHANCE FOR              
THUNDER ON SAT NIGHT AND THEN SUN DRY. UPPER LEVEL LOW THAN MOVES               
TOWARDS REGION...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE              
AREA ON SUN NIGHT...MON AND MON NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW THEN SHIFTS E            
OF THE AREA...WITH NW FLOW PREDOMINATING FOR TUE AND WED. AS FAR AS             
TEMPS...NEEDED TO CUT TEMPERATURES FOR SOME DAYS...ENDING UP WITH               
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.                     
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG/NG                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
215 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...                                                            
WK LOW PRES OVR CNTRL OH INTO SRN IN WL MOV SE AND EVENTUALLY DRAG              
RMNG LOW CLDS AND RA SE WITH THE LOW. HIGH PRES BLDG INTO MN WL PUSH            
MUCH DRIER AIR SE TWD AREA. LEADING EDGE OF DRY AIR WL BE SHOWN TO              
PUSH SSE ACRS TAF SITES ABT 00Z TO 02Z AND ABT 05Z TO 07Z FURTHER               
INLAND SITES. AMS MOIST FM SFC UP TO MID LVLS SO EXACT HGT OF CLD               
BASES LARGELY A GUESS.  RISK FOR THUNDER HAS SHIFTED SE OF TAF SITES.           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM(THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                  
WITH RAIN LOWERED HIGHS AND IN AREAS WITH FROPA INCREASED WINDS AND             
LOWERED HIGHS. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER AS PER 88D AND LTNG                   
DETECTION.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
WL MAKE THIS QUICK AS I WANT TO HAVE MOST PRODUCTS OUT SO I CAN                 
WATCH THE RADAR. FIRST COMPLEX OF STORMS DRIVING EAST AT 45 KTS. WL             
HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND DAMAGE EVEN THOUGH SYSTEM WEAKENING. LOW                 
LEVEL INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SOME DECENT ELEVATED CAPE. LOW             
LEVEL JET PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST OVER MIDWEST. MODELS FAILING TO                 
GRASP STRENGTH OF FIRST COMPLEX AND SECOND SYSTEM IN IOWA ALREADY               
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED. SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF               
LAKE ERIE. ALL MODELS STILL HAVING FEEDBACK ISSUES. OF EVERYTHING I             
LOOKED AT THE RUC10 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WITH WEAKENING MORNING                
SYTEM AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON              
SHIFTING EWRD TNGT. WL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO IN WRITING FCST. PCP                
WATER HIGH ON BUFKIT IN BOTH ETA AND GFS BUT BOTH SEEM CONTAMINATED             
BY FEEDBACK. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 3 INCHES)                  
EXCEPT FOR NW PA WHERE IT IS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. SURROUNDING OFFICES            
WANT FLOOD WATCH AND WITH RECENT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AND                     
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP AM                
LEANING TOWARD ONLY ISSUING FOR PA COUNTIES FOR NOW WHERE FLOOD                 
GUIDANCE LOWEST ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN MOST ZONES. NGM AND            
GFS TEMP GUIDACE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 TODAY AND            
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-TUE)...                                                          
WL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. FIRST GLANCE OF              
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK. WL LEAVE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY              
SINCE IT STILL APPLIES.                                                         
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                         
MDLS IN GEN AGREEMENT WITH COOL NLY FLOW FOR FRI AND WITH H8 AND LK             
TEMP DIF IN EXCESS OF 13C AND SOME MSTR AS PER LAST FEW MDL RUNS                
WILL MENTION CHC SHWRS ERN FORECAST AREA. COOL TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND            
LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS AND ENSEMBLE. H8 MAY NOT GET AS               
COOL AS FCST HOWEVER 7C LOOKS GOOD. THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS IS                    
PSBL...NO MENTION ATTM. SOME TIMG CONFLICTS FOR THE FRONTAL SYS FOR             
MONDAY AND TUE...WL KEEP MONDAY DRY AS FRONT STILL TOO THE WEST.                
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...FLOOD WATCH NW PA LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA                                                           
PREV SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                       
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...MWA                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
1101 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM(THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                  
PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS REGION THIS MORNING ALONG WITH RAINFALL                 
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWING HEAVIEST                
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE              
CWA THIS AM. FRONTAL BOUNDRY ATTM LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO. FOR             
THIS AFTERNOON LOWERED TEMPS A CAT DUE CLOUDS AND PRECIP AND REMOVED            
MORNING WORDING IN EASTERN ZONES AND DOWNPLAYED THUNDER ACROSS                  
NORTHERN AREAS.                                                                 
.PREV SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
WL MAKE THIS QUICK AS I WANT TO HAVE MOST PRODUCTS OUT SO I CAN                 
WATCH THE RADAR. FIRST COMPLEX OF STORMS DRIVING EAST AT 45 KTS. WL             
HAVE TO WATCH FOR WIND DAMAGE EVEN THOUGH SYSTEM WEAKENING. LOW                 
LEVEL INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT SOME DECENT ELEVATED CAPE. LOW             
LEVEL JET PRIMARILY TO OUR WEST OVER MIDWEST. MODELS FAILING TO                 
GRASP STRENGTH OF FIRST COMPLEX AND SECOND SYSTEM IN IOWA ALREADY               
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PROGGED. SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST S OF               
LAKE ERIE. ALL MODELS STILL HAVING FEEDBACK ISSUES. OF EVERYTHING I             
LOOKED AT THE RUC10 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE WITH WEAKENING MORNING                
SYTEM AND THEN REDEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON              
SHIFTING EWRD TNGT. WL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO IN WRITING FCST. PCP                
WATER HIGH ON BUFKIT IN BOTH ETA AND GFS BUT BOTH SEEM CONTAMINATED             
BY FEEDBACK. 3 HR FLOOD GUIDANCE FAIRLY HIGH (AROUND 3 INCHES)                  
EXCEPT FOR NW PA WHERE IT IS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. SURROUNDING OFFICES            
WANT FLOOD WATCH AND WITH RECENT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER AND                     
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP AM                
LEANING TOWARD ONLY ISSUING FOR PA COUNTIES FOR NOW WHERE FLOOD                 
GUIDANCE LOWEST ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN MOST ZONES. NGM AND            
GFS TEMP GUIDACE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 TODAY AND            
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S THURSDAY.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM(FRI-TUE)...                                                          
WL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. FIRST GLANCE OF              
CURRENT GRIDS LOOK OK. WL LEAVE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM YESTERDAY              
SINCE IT STILL APPLIES.                                                         
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...                         
MDLS IN GEN AGREEMENT WITH COOL NLY FLOW FOR FRI AND WITH H8 AND LK             
TEMP DIF IN EXCESS OF 13C AND SOME MSTR AS PER LAST FEW MDL RUNS                
WILL MENTION CHC SHWRS ERN FORECAST AREA. COOL TEMPS OVR THE WEEKEND            
LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON H8 TEMPS AND ENSEMBLE. H8 MAY NOT GET AS               
COOL AS FCST HOWEVER 7C LOOKS GOOD. THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS IS                    
PSBL...NO MENTION ATTM. SOME TIMG CONFLICTS FOR THE FRONTAL SYS FOR             
MONDAY AND TUE...WL KEEP MONDAY DRY AS FRONT STILL TOO THE WEST.                
&&                                                                              
AVIATION(06Z-06Z)...                                                            
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NC IN MOVING ALONG WARM FRONT                   
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO.  ARE STARTING TO WEAKEN AS THEY OUT             
RUN LL JET...SHOULD REACH TOL AROUND 8Z AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER               
CLE AROUND 10Z.  EXPECT A LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK AFTER            
IT HITS OHIO BORDER.  SECOND CLUSTER IN IA MAY NOT HOLD TOGETHER.               
BUT AS LOW NEAR KC MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT...EXPECT SECOND            
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT LATER THIS AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...FLOOD WATCH NW PA LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...ABE                                                                
PREV SHORT TERM...KOSARIK                                                       
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/KIELTYKA                                                    
AVIATION...DJB                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
935 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WILL LOWER POPS IN NRN TIER OF FA AND KEEP LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH AS              
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SEWRD. WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF CHC OF TRW OUT                 
AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WILL ALSO BE LOWERING                 
TEMPS FOR MINS ESP  NORTH WHERE COLD ADVECTION ALREADY HAS TEMPS                
NEAR FORECAST MINS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED TO CANCEL FF WATCH AS RUC SHOWING REMAINING OMEGA WITH                  
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS. REST SAME.                                                       
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 512 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS                 
EXPIRED. STILL MONITORING RADAR DATA TO SEE IF MOVEMENT OF                      
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY AREA CONTINUES EAST. IF SO MAY DROP                
FLOOD WATCH WITH LATER ISSUANCE. RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS SOME FRONTAL               
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SO             
ANOTHER REASON TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WILL ALSO CONSIDER              
FOG PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE ALSO...ALTHOUGH WIND MAY BE TOO             
MUCH...AS WELL AS POSTFRONTAL DRIER AIR INFLUX.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
AVIATION...                                                                     
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                
AIRPORTS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS... HEAVY                
RAIN AND HAIL.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING MVFR OR            
IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY MID MORNING.                                      
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                
ZONES WL BE ISSUED CLOSE TO 4 PM SO I CAN CLEAR MORE OF THE TSTM                
WATCH.                                                                          
SFC LO NOT EXACTLY WHERE MODELS HAD IT. MAIN SVR WX THREAT FOR GUSTY            
WINDS SEEMS TO BE SPEEDING E OF PIT AS I TYPE. TSTM WATCH ALREADY               
CANCELLED FOR E OH. WL MENTION 70-80% POP OVERNIGHT (RAIN, CHC                  
TSTM); THEN CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST 1ST HALF OF THU, WHILE            
WE WAIT FOR LARGE H5 TROF TO GET E OF CWA. NICE WEATHER FOLLOWS.                
TOOK AVG OF AVN-NGM-ETA TEMPS AND POPS, WHILE DOVETAILING WITH                  
NEIGHBORS.                                                                      
WL KEEP FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. ETA HAS HVY RAIN...SPCLY S. PARTS OF             
WATCH, PROB IN N, CAN BE CANCELLED (OR RE-CONSIDERED) BY EVE SHIFT.             
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                   
MENTIONED CHC POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS NEXT SYSTEM PULLS THRU GRTLKS.            
OTHERWISE DRY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
657 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATED TO CANCEL FF WATCH AS RUC SHOWING REMAINING OMEGA WITH                  
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN TO SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME FOG TO THE EARLY                   
MORNING HOURS. REST SAME.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 512 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS                 
EXPIRED. STILL MONITORING RADAR DATA TO SEE IF MOVEMENT OF                      
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER KY AREA CONTINUES EAST. IF SO MAY DROP                
FLOOD WATCH WITH LATER ISSUANCE. RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS SOME FRONTAL               
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SO             
ANOTHER REASON TO CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WILL ALSO CONSIDER              
FOG PROSPECTS FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE ALSO...ALTHOUGH WIND MAY BE TOO             
MUCH...AS WELL AS POSTFRONTAL DRIER AIR INFLUX.                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
AVIATION...                                                                     
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                
AIRPORTS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS... HEAVY                
RAIN AND HAIL.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING MVFR OR            
IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY MID MORNING.                                      
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                
ZONES WL BE ISSUED CLOSE TO 4 PM SO I CAN CLEAR MORE OF THE TSTM                
WATCH.                                                                          
SFC LO NOT EXACTLY WHERE MODELS HAD IT. MAIN SVR WX THREAT FOR GUSTY            
WINDS SEEMS TO BE SPEEDING E OF PIT AS I TYPE. TSTM WATCH ALREADY               
CANCELLED FOR E OH. WL MENTION 70-80% POP OVERNIGHT (RAIN, CHC                  
TSTM); THEN CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST 1ST HALF OF THU, WHILE            
WE WAIT FOR LARGE H5 TROF TO GET E OF CWA. NICE WEATHER FOLLOWS.                
TOOK AVG OF AVN-NGM-ETA TEMPS AND POPS, WHILE DOVETAILING WITH                  
NEIGHBORS.                                                                      
WL KEEP FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. ETA HAS HVY RAIN...SPCLY S. PARTS OF             
WATCH, PROB IN N, CAN BE CANCELLED (OR RE-CONSIDERED) BY EVE SHIFT.             
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                   
MENTIONED CHC POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS NEXT SYSTEM PULLS THRU GRTLKS.            
OTHERWISE DRY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
512 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
UPDATED FORECAST TO SHOW THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS                 
EXPIRED. STILL MONITORING RADAR DATA TO SEE IF MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM         
COMPLEX OVER KY AREA CONTINUES EAST. IF SO MAY DROP FLOOD WATCH WITH            
LATER ISSUANCE. RUC MODEL RUN SHOWS SOME FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT           
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SO ANOTHER REASON TO                
CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WILL ALSO CONSIDER FOG PROSPECTS FOR THE          
NEXT ISSUANCE ALSO...ALTHOUGH WIND MAY BE TOO MUCH...AS WELL AS                 
POSTFRONTAL DRIER AIR INFLUX.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2004                
AVIATION...                                                                     
SQUALL LINE APPROACHING WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE                
AIRPORTS. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS... HEAVY RAIN           
AND HAIL.  RAIN WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING MVFR OR IFR             
CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY MID MORNING.                                          
SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                                
ZONES WL BE ISSUED CLOSE TO 4 PM SO I CAN CLEAR MORE OF THE TSTM WATCH.         
SFC LO NOT EXACTLY WHERE MODELS HAD IT. MAIN SVR WX THREAT FOR GUSTY            
WINDS SEEMS TO BE SPEEDING E OF PIT AS I TYPE. TSTM WATCH ALREADY               
CANCELLED FOR E OH. WL MENTION 70-80% POP OVERNIGHT (RAIN, CHC TSTM);           
THEN CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR AT LEAST 1ST HALF OF THU, WHILE WE WAIT           
FOR LARGE H5 TROF TO GET E OF CWA. NICE WEATHER FOLLOWS.                        
TOOK AVG OF AVN-NGM-ETA TEMPS AND POPS, WHILE DOVETAILING WITH                  
NEIGHBORS.                                                                      
WL KEEP FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT. ETA HAS HVY RAIN...SPCLY S. PARTS OF             
WATCH, PROB IN N, CAN BE CANCELLED (OR RE-CONSIDERED) BY EVE SHIFT.             
LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                   
MENTIONED CHC POPS MON NGT AND TUE AS NEXT SYSTEM PULLS THRU GRTLKS.            
OTHERWISE DRY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONE MDZ001 TODAY AND THURSDAY LATE                  
     MORNING.                                                                   
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-                    
     068-069 TODAY AND THURSDAY LATE MORNING.                                   
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-023-                
     029>032 TODAY AND THURSDAY LATE MORNING.                                   
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES WVZ001>004-012-021>023-                        
     041 TODAY AND THURSDAY LATE MORNING.                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
815 PM MDT WED AUG 4 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST                   
WYOMING. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING WILL START TO            
DROP SOUTHEAST. ETA/RUC MOVE THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH                 
DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL..THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD             
SHAPE. WILL UPDATE IN AN HOUR OR TWO TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.                 
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
316 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW DAYS. THE FCST ISSUES (AND IT            
IS A STRETCH TO CALL THESE FCST ISSUES) ARE TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED EARLY AUG                
PATTERN. A TROF IS JUST OFF THE W COAST...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE              
U.S. ROCKIES TO CNTRL CANADA...AND A TROF DOMINATES ERN CANADA INTO             
THE GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS. N END OF RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED INTO A              
WEAKLY CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MANITOBA/NE SASKATCHEWAN PER               
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS AT 500MB. IR AND 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOW CLEAR             
SKIES DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF STRATOCU WAS                 
DROPPING ALMOST DUE S TOWARD ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LOOKS TO BE                
BREAKING UP A BIT...AND A PATCH OF CI WAS STREAMING S THRU CNTRL                
ONTARIO.                                                                        
THERE ARE NO MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED THAT REALLY IMPACT FCST THRU               
SAT. UPSTREAM MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND EDGES EWD THRU              
SAT WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES MOVING FROM SRN MANITOBA TO THE               
WRN OHIO VALLEY. SINCE THERE WASN'T MUCH IN THE WAY OF CU UPSTREAM              
IN ONTARIO YESTERDAY...NOT EXPECTING MUCH HERE TODAY...ESPECIALLY               
OVER ABOUT THE E HALF OF UPPER MI WHERE AIRMASS WILL BE MORE STABLE             
DUE TO NRLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. FLOW IS LIGHTER OVER THE WRN             
FCST AREA SO INTERIOR SHOULD POP SCT CU WITH WEAKER STABILIZING FLOW            
OFF THE LAKE. TRAJECTORIES SHOW TODAYS AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM N OF            
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.             
THIS SUPPORTS VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE HERE TODAY AND AGREES WELL WITH              
GOING FCST.                                                                     
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH INLAND AREAS CNTRL/W DECOUPLING AS              
SFC HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS. THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS SHOULDN'T HAVE             
MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING TO ABOUT 40.                                              
AN OUTSTANDING FRI IS ON TAP WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC            
RIDGE DRIFTS TO UPPER MI. FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW                
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE MI W OF KISQ IN THE AFTN WHILE                 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS               
JUST TO THE W TO START THE DAY. SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO CU AS 850MB                 
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT. SEE NO PROBLEM WITH TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE            
70S PER GUIDANCE. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                   
SFC RIDGE HOLDS OVER UPPER MI FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE AN                 
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND...               
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED A BIT SO TEMPS WON'T BE AS COOL AS THU               
NIGHT.                                                                          
ON SAT...ETA/GFS TAKE A SHORTWAVE THRU RIDGE TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES             
WITH SHRA DRIVING THRU NRN MN. NOT EXPECTING THIS SHORTWAVE TO                  
PRESENT ANY PCPN CONCERNS FOR UPPER MI LATER SAT OR EARLY SUN AS IT             
MOVES THRU RIDGE HELD IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY                      
STATIONARY TROF OVER THE ERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF                  
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND DRY AIR HOLDING OVER WRN LAKES UNDERNEATH               
RIDGE ARGUES FOR A DRY FCST. CAN'T IMAGINE GFS WOULD VERIFY WITH                
PCPN MOVING INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT GIVEN RIDGE POSITION THAT IT                
SHOWS. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TO BE THE ONLY EFFECT OF              
SHORTWAVE. AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE SO HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO             
FRI.                                                                            
NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATER SUN/MON WITH POTENTIAL TO            
GET SOME NEEDED RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SOME              
TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS ARE NOTED IN LATEST LONGER RANGE MODEL              
RUNS TO SUGGEST MAKING ANY CHANGES TO GOING FCST BEYOND SAT NIGHT.              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
330 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPS...AS LOWS THIS EVENING                 
ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR THIS           
DATE.  ISOLATED AREAS WITH FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT                     
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.                                       
BUILDING UL RIDGE DOMINATES CENTRAL CANADA AND N CNTRL US WITH                  
DOWNSTREAM 75KT MAX WIND BAND HEADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHLAND.               
CURRENT TREND WITH RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER              
AIR OUR WAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  STG 1027MB SFC HIGH CENTERED               
OVR SRN MANITOBA...PROVIDING A LGT NELY DRIFT TO AREA SFC WINDS.                
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL START TO SLOWLY DRIFT                    
SOUTHEAST ACRS ERN WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL OPEN US UP TO A RETURN                 
SLY SEMI-MOIST FLOW FROM CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF. INDICIES POINT TO             
AN AXIS OF LL CONV AHD OF TRIPLE POINT OVR ERN NEBRASKA ON                      
SATURDAY.  H5 THERMAL TROUGHING IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO                   
THIS AREA AT THAT TIME FOR INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...TOTALS              
TOTALS OF 49 TO 52...LIS TO -7...AND CAPES 1600 TO 1900 OVR WRN AND             
CNTRL MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALSO FAVOR CONVECTION. CURRENT TSTM                 
FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK.                                                      
MODEL PREFERENCES. FOCUS ON BEST INITIALIZATION WITH RUC AND                    
SHORT RANGE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR UL FEATURES WITH 00Z RPTS...WHILE                 
ETA AND NGM ALSO AGREE ON SFC FEATURES. LOOKING AS 00Z RAOB RPTS OVR            
SRN ONTARIO AND NRN MINNESOTA...00Z ETA FORECASTS H5 S/WV TROF                  
ROTATING INTO MINNESOTA TOO DEEP.                                               
EXTENDED...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS                   
PART OF UL RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD OVR MN.  THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH               
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPR 70S ACRS NRN MN. BY EARLY NEXT                  
WEEK...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO                
BRING MORE COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND.  AS                       
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPR                
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND AN UPR LVL TROF ACRS                
THE ERN USA.  THIS MEANS COOL...DRY NWLY WINDS ACRS UPR                         
MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR                  
AUGUST.                                                                         
.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
TRIPOLI                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
300 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN             
FROM THE NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS ALSO AIDED IN THE              
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BY EATING INTO THE INVERSION LAYER                
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THE RUC MODEL SIMULATED THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC            
PROFILE THE BEST DURING THIS UNUSUAL EARLY AUGUST STRATUS EVENT.                
USING THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, THE             
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE ERODED IN ALL BUT THE PAOLA AND BUTLER                 
AREAS BY SUNRISE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM               
STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ENJOY MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES TODAY.                                                              
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS TONIGHT. KANSAS CITY'S             
RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES (1990) AND SAINT JOSEPH'S IS 54 DEGREES                
(ALSO 1990). ONE MUST LOOK TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN                  
TO FIND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS ON THIS MORNING'S SURFACE CHART.               
GETTING THIS DRY AIR INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI, FOR OPTIMAL                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING, MAY BE TOUGH WITH RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL                    
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM STORMS ON THE HIGH               
PLAINS TONIGHT MAY ALSO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT. SAINT              
JOSEPH WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO BREAK THE RECORD TONIGHT             
SINCE THE ASOS SITS IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS THERE WILL              
LIKELY DECOUPLE EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE SENSOR AT MCI SITS                     
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN ELEVATION AND WILL LIKELY ENDURE AN EAST WIND            
AROUND 5KTS ALL NIGHT LONG.                                                     
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE             
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF             
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
ON SUNDAY AND DISLODGE IT. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO              
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE               
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO             
THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THESE              
FEATURES, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL DETERMINE WHETHER CONVECTION WILL            
BE ISOLATED OR WIDESPREAD WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR             
NOW WE HAVE ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
1030 PM WED...                                                                  
DOING A QUICK REVISION TO RAISE MINS A BIT TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS NOT               
DROPPING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED. MAY ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG IF                 
WINDS DROP OFF MORE THAN EXPECTED.  WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS                    
POINT...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR.                                         
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
328 PM WED...                                                                   
SURFACE FRONT ALMOST THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS                          
AFTERNOON...MOVING SLOWLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.  SHOULD BE                   
THROUGH KDMO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  FROPA IS ASSOCIATED WITH             
A FEW SPRINKLES AND A LOW DECK OF STRATUS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE                 
CLOUD DECK HAS SLOWLY RAISED...WITH SOME BREAKS IN NORTHERN                     
MISSOURI.  FORECAST TONIGHT IS CONCERNED CLOUDS AND TEMPS.  IF                  
UPSTREAM IS ANY INDICATION...SHOULD SEE BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH              
OF THE EVENING.  SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. AVE NOT               
INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE GRIDS OR THE TAFS...BUT AS TEMPS DROP NEAR              
THE DEWPOINT /LOWER 60S/ IT IS POSSIBLE.  MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY              
DROP TO 1000FT AND 3-5SM.  HAVE PUT LOWS JUST A DEG OR TWO UNDER                
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
H8 TEMPS FOR THURSDAY DROP TO AROUND +13. SHOULD SEE SOME CU                    
DEVELOP...SO HAVE KEPT HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80 WHICH IS NEAR THE                  
PREV FORECAST AND MET GUID. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR THE            
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A MINOR WARMING TREND TO ENSUE.                      
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...SEASONALLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO             
REASSERT THEMSELVES AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AMPLIFIES            
AND TRAVERSES EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND              
EARLY NEXT WEEK A LOW OVER THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT THROUGH THE ST              
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN EAST PACIFIC LOW BEATS DOWN THE                
MIDWEST RIDGE AND ALLOWS STILL MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO FILTER             
SOUTH. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH COOL              
AIR WILL WORK SOUTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO LIFT THE EAST COAST LOW               
THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE                            
SHORTWAVE...THAT IS FORECAST TO BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN...A CHANCE TO               
CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THUS...PUSHING A DECENT             
COLD FRONT THROUGH MISSOURI SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A            
LITTLE FASTER WITH LIFTING THE EAST COAST LOW...WHICH ULTIMATELY                
DOES NOT ALLOW AS MUCH TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND THEREFORE             
INDICATES A MUCH WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS LOOKS             
TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK PROBLEMS WITH THE                
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO CARVE OUT NEXT WEEKS TROUGH...WHICH                
LEADS ONE TO THINK THAT THIS IS LEADING TO THE ANONYMOUSLY STRONG               
TROUGH SOLUTION. THEREFORE...I MADE MY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING                 
FORECAST BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. I PUSHED UP THE FRONTAL                   
PASSAGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT STICKING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY                    
NIGHT...WHILE KEEPING THEM IN THE EAST CWA FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE...I            
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK BY COOLING              
THINGS OFF A LITTLE...BUT KEPT TEMPS WARMER THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE.              
LVQ/CUTTER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFOEAX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1150 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NW OF LK SUPERIOR IS                     
PROVIDING UPR GREAT LAKES MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WX. ONLY                   
CONCERN FOR UPDATE IS WIND SPEEDS OVR E ZONES. SFC HIGH SHOULD DRIFT            
SSE THIS AFTN SO N GRADIANT WIND PRESENTLY OVR UPR MI WILL                      
CONTINUE...EXCEPT IN FAR W ZONES AS LIGHTER WINDS WITH HIGH PRES                
SLIDE OVERHEAD. E ZONES WITHIN STRONGEST GRADIANT FLOW AND WITHIN               
AREA OF SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION FM NE. ADDITIONALLY...THE CWCZ                
SOUNDING ON S SHORE OF JAMES BAY (MOOSONEE ONTARIO) SHOWS 25-30KT               
WINDS FM 925MB-850MB AND THIS SWINGS OVR FAR SE LK SUPERIOR AND                 
ALGER/LUCE/N SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES THIS AFTN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDING              
FOR KERY THIS AFTN SHOWS MIXED LAYER WINDS REACHING TOWARD 25 KT.               
CONSIDERING THE SPEED MAX MOVING IN...THINK THIS MAKES SOME SENSE SO            
BUMPED WINDS TO BREEZY FOR THOSE ZONES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST GRIDS              
IN GREAT SHAPE SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED.                                       
UPDATED/PUBLISHED GRIDS AND UPDATE TEXT ZFPMQT ALREADY OUT.                     
JLA                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION (ISSUED 316 AM EDT THIS MORNING)...                            
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH INLAND AREAS CNTRL/W DECOUPLING AS              
SFC HIGH PRES EDGES CLOSER. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIRMASS. THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS SHOULDN'T HAVE             
MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING TO ABOUT 40.                                              
AN OUTSTANDING FRI IS ON TAP WITH SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS SFC            
RIDGE DRIFTS TO UPPER MI. FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW                
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE MI W OF KISQ IN THE AFTN WHILE                 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN SFC RIDGE AXIS               
JUST TO THE W TO START THE DAY. SHOULD BE LITTLE/NO CU AS 850MB                 
TEMPS MODERATE A BIT. SEE NO PROBLEM WITH TEMPS INLAND WELL INTO THE            
70S PER GUIDANCE. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.                   
SFC RIDGE HOLDS OVER UPPER MI FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE AN                 
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND...               
AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED A BIT SO TEMPS WON'T BE AS COOL AS THU               
NIGHT.                                                                          
ON SAT...ETA/GFS TAKE A SHORTWAVE THRU RIDGE TOWARD WRN GREAT LAKES             
WITH SHRA DRIVING THRU NRN MN. NOT EXPECTING THIS SHORTWAVE TO                  
PRESENT ANY PCPN CONCERNS FOR UPPER MI LATER SAT OR EARLY SUN AS IT             
MOVES THRU RIDGE HELD IN PLACE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY                      
STATIONARY TROF OVER THE ERN LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF                  
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND DRY AIR HOLDING OVER WRN LAKES UNDERNEATH               
RIDGE ARGUES FOR A DRY FCST. CAN'T IMAGINE GFS WOULD VERIFY WITH                
PCPN MOVING INTO UPPER MI SAT NIGHT GIVEN RIDGE POSITION THAT IT                
SHOWS. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS TO BE THE ONLY EFFECT OF              
SHORTWAVE. AIRMASS CHANGES LITTLE SO HIGHS SAT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO             
FRI.                                                                            
NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATER SUN/MON WITH POTENTIAL TO            
GET SOME NEEDED RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT WILL HAVE BEEN DRY FOR SOME              
TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS ARE NOTED IN LATEST LONGER RANGE MODEL              
RUNS TO SUGGEST MAKING ANY CHANGES TO GOING FCST BEYOND SAT NIGHT.              
ROLFSON                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
948 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING              
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT ARE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE SOUTHEAST               
CORNER OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY INTO PENNSYLVANIA.  CURRENT VISIBLE                
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND             
ROCHESTER BUT WITH MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH            
WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE DOWN SOUTH AND MORE SUN THAN             
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.  FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK                 
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.  SOME WORDING CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
INVOLVING SKY COVER BUT THAT WILL BE IT FOR THIS UPDATE.  EARLIER               
AFD BELOW ALTHOUGH A MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN ADDED.                             
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED                   
OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING A               
REINFORCING SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR TO THE FA FOR THE NEXT TWO            
TO THREE DAYS.                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT FROM WEST              
TO EAST AS THE NEW JERSEY LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDE OFF             
THE COAST THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL                
DROP H8 TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 7C THIS AFTERNOON. CORRESPONDING                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 70.                                 
AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL             
GET COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN A            
FEW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MONROE AND                
WAYNE COUNTIES WHERE THE MESO-ETA LOW LEVEL OMEGA FIELDS AND                    
INSTABILITY ARE STRONGEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE             
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER NEW YORK            
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND.                                                          
THE ETA SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS                   
NEW YORK STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS             
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE            
MOVES SOUTH. SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SEEN ACROSS             
PARTS OF THE LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES FRIDAY               
NIGHT IN THE COOL...UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW. DAYTIME HIGH                       
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GETTING OUT OF THE 60S FRIDAY               
AND SATURDAY AS H8 TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 5C.                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY AND BEYOND)...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE            
ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT SHIFTS INTO NEW                
ENGLAND...AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO REGION. DECIDED             
TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW, EVEN THOUGH A SCATTERED SHOWER WOULD NOT            
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. UPPER RIDGING AND A FURTHER MODERATION IN               
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY. MRF SHOWS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING            
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CHC POPS WERE                  
RETAINED FROM EARLIER FCST.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE COLD              
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT PATCHY FOG IS REDUCING VISIBILITIES                         
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT KBUF, KIAG AND KROC UNTIL            
ABOUT 11Z. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO            
BROKEN CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4 K FT RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND                 
EVENING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BUOYS STILL SHOW WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A             
FEW GUSTS JUST ABOVE 20 KNOTS.  WAVES HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH...BUT            
MID LAKE BUOY STILL SHOWS WAVES JUST OVER 3 FEET...SO STILL EXPECT              
SOME 4-FOOT WAVES ON THE NORTHERLY FETCH TOWARD THE SOUTH SHORE.                
WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  MAY             
BE ABLE TO DISCONTINUE THE ADVISORIES EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON                    
PARTICULARLY SOUTHWEST AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS                   
FORECAST BY THE RUC AND MESOETA.                                                
AS FOR LAKE ERIE...WIND SPEEDS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON LAKE ONTARIO            
AT THE BUOY BUT ARE LESS AT THE DKK CMAN.  BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW               
THE WAVES ARE NOT RESPONDING AS ON LAKE ONTARIO.  WILL CONTINUE                 
UNDER SMALL CRAFT BUT WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS BACKING NORTH WILL               
INCREASE WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL WAS LIGHT...IN THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCH               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THERE WERE NO            
IMPACTS ON ANY RIVERS OR CREEKS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES ABOVE                  
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. NO SIGNIFICANT QPF IN STORE FOR THE NEXT               
SEVERAL DAYS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE               
NIAGARA RIVER TO SODUS BAY.                                                     
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SAGE                                                                   
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...TJP/PO                                                   
MARINE...DJF                                                                    
AVIATION...SFM                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
945 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO BUMP UP CHANCE OF TSTMS A LITTLE. MODEL                 
SOUNDING FROM THE RUC AND MESOETA ARE SHOWING K INDEX ABOVE 30 AND              
CAPES AROUND 3000J/KG ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF US1. THINKING IS             
SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE                
AREA. WITH HIGH CAPES DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A PROBLEM LATER             
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME HAIL. THE THETA E DIFFERENCE IF THE              
LOWERS 300 MB IS AROUND 42 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT                 
STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS. THE WET BULB ZERO IS RUNNING BETWEEN 10KFT              
TO 13 KFT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT LARGE HAIL THOUGH SMALL HAIL UP TO              
NICKEL SIZE IS POSSIBLE.                                                        
WILL NOT RAISE HEAT ADVISORY BUT HEAT INDICES OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN            
FROM SMITHFIELD TO GOLDSBORO...LILLINGTON...FAYETTEVILLE AND                    
LAURINBURG WILL APPROACH 105.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT                      
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE                
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...EXCEPT MVFR TO OCNLY            
IFR VSBYS IN BR AND HZ THROUGH 13Z...18Z TO 24Z CONDITIONS LOWERING             
TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                  
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JO                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
940 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT MAKING SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THIS              
MORNING...CURRENTLY ALIGNED WSW-ENE FROM AROUND DANVILLE VA TO                  
PETERSBURG TO JUST SOUTH OF MELFA. MEANWHILE...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS               
SHOW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS BLOSSOMING ACROSS SRN WVA AND FAR SRN               
VA. THE AREA OF PRECIP IS POST-FRONTAL AND ASSOCIATED WITH                      
INCREASING RRQ JET REGION (FRONTOGENETIC) FORCING. IN RESPONSE TO               
THIS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (850-500 MB QVECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE) BOTH THE RUC AND GFS PICK UP ON A DEVELOPING SURFACE               
LOW ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTN...OVER CEN NC PER THE RUC AND               
NRN SC PER THE GFS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS BECOMES QUITE BULLISH THIS              
EVENING WITH THE DEGREE OF RRQ JET REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE AND                  
LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THUS GOOD RAINFALL POTENTIAL N OF THE SURFACE               
LOW (COOL SIDE OF FRONT) WITH THE ERLY OR ONSHORE LOW LEVEL                     
FLOW...RESEMBLING A COOL SEASON EVENT WITH GOOD WAA/MOIST ISENTROPIC            
ASCENT NOTED. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE'VE HAD OF LATE...THIS IS              
SOMETHING THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR AREAS OVER SERN VA/NERN NC.               
OTHERWISE...IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...CONTINUE TO                 
EXPECT RISK PRIMARILY OVER SERN VA/NERN NC S OF THE FRONT...WHERE               
LESS CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY WILL RESULT IN THE MOST SURFACE                      
DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED RUC MODEL SOUNDING FOR A 90/74 TEMP/DWPT              
REGIME YIELDS SBCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND                
-7C. TOTAL-TOTAL INDICES IN THE LOWER 40S ARE INDICATIVE OF WEAK                
LAPSE RATES ALOFT (ONLY 5.5 C/KM BTWN 700/500 MB). HOWEVER...GOOD               
DRYING ALOFT IS NOTED CURRENTLY OVER THIS REGION...WITH 700 MB                  
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10C AND 850-700 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES              
AROUND 15C. THIS WOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASED DOWNBURST THREAT WITH               
TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH A HAIL THREAT AS THE MODEL              
RUC SOUNDING WET BULB ZERO LEVEL (AROUND 11 KFT) FALLS WELL BELOW               
THE FREEZING LEVEL (14-14.5 KFT). WILL UPDATE THE SEVERE WEATHER                
OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THE CURRENT THINKING IN TERMS OF TIMING AND                  
SEVERE WEATHER TYPE(S).                                                         
MARINE FORECAST...AS WE EXPECT SMALL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE             
NEXT 12 HRS...WILL HOIST A SCA FOR CHES BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTH              
AND OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE.            
UPDATED FORECASTS WILL BE OUT BY 11 AM.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SCA CSTL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA.             
         SCA CHES BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO CAPE HENRY.                           
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...                                                           
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...                                           
ENJOYED SUMMERY WX CONDS YDA...HWVR THEY APR TO BE SHORT-LIVED.                 
UNUSUALLY STRNG UPR LVL TROF FOR THE SEASON DVLPS OVR THE ERN STATES            
HEADING INTO THE WKND...BRINGING A PREVIEW OF ERY FALL (AT LEAST FOR            
A CPL OF DAYS). ONE AREA OF CNVTN CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU                        
DE...BRUSHED XTRM NRN DORCHESTER CTY ABT AN HR AGO...OTRW NO PCPN               
OVR FA ATTM. NEXT BATCH OF CNVTN W OF MTNS OVR KY/TN...WHICH HAS                
BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF WKNG PAST FEW HRS.                                        
SFC CDFNT FM SCNTRL NEW ENG TO SRN IN PRESSES SLOLY SE                          
TDA...REACHING THE NC/VA BRDR THIS EVE. LLVL FLO TURNS FM SW TO NNW             
AS FNT APPROACHES/PUSHES INTO FA FM NW TO SE TDA. NOT REALLY SURE               
ABT AMT OF CVRG FOR CNVTN TDA GIVEN UNFAVORABLE LLVL FLO PTRN.                  
GFS/ETA HV SIMILAR TMG OF FNT TDA...WHR THEIR DIFFS LIE IS TNGT THRU            
FRI. GFS MUCH SHARPER W/ TROF ALOFT...AND DVLPS MR SGFNT LO PRES ON             
FNT NR VA CAPES TNGT WHICH MVS UP THE CST AS TROF AMPLIFIES FRI INTO            
SAT (A TYPICAL WINTER STM PTRN...NOT COMMONLY SEEN AT THIS TM OF                
YR)...WHL ETA SIMPLY PUSH MUCH WKR WV OFF MDATLC CST LTR TNGT...AND             
DRIVES SGFNT DRYING INTO RGN FM. OVRALL PTRN QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR                
THIS TM OF YR...AND WOULD NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE STORMIER GFS                 
SOLN...WHICH WOULD MEAN UNSETTLED CONDS LINGER INVOF CST THRU GOOD              
BIT OF FRI...ALG W/ STRNGR LLVL CAA IN THE STMS WAKE ELSW. FOR                  
NOW...HV COMPROMISED...GOING LIKELY POPS SE ERY TNGT...OTRW                     
CHC...WHL MVG PCPN SLOER OUT OF THE AREA BY LT TNGT/ERY FRI...AND               
KPG MR IN THE WAY OF CLDNS ENE SXNS INTO FRI AFTN.                              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                  
REFRESHINGLY COOL CONDS XPCTD FRI NGT INTO SAT MORNING. LO TEMP                 
RCRDS MAY BE CHALLENGED (SEE CLIMATE SXN BLO FOR DETAILS). MID/UPR              
LVL TROF SLO TO EXIT SAT...WHICH WL KP TEMPS NRLY 10 DEGS F BLO NRML            
ALL AREAS. SFC HI PRES REACHES THE CST BY SUN AFTN/NGT...LEADING TO             
RETURN FLO FM SW (AND WRMG). RCRD LO TEMPS MAY AGAIN BE CHALLENGED              
SAT NGT UNDER SKC/NR CALM CONDS. NEXT FNTL BNDRY APPROACHES ARND MID            
NEXT WK.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CONDS IN SCTD CNVTN TDA INTO TNGT.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO SGFNT WX XPCTD TDA INTO ERY TNGT (OTR THAN SCTD CNVTN). LLVL CAA             
SURGE XPCTD LT TNGT INTO FRI...LEADING TO INCRSG N WNDS AND SEAS (TO            
SCA CRITERIA). CONDS COULD GET QUITE ROUGH SHOULD STRNGR GFS SFC LO             
JUST OFF THE CST VERIFY LT TNGT THRU FRI...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN            
IN THE NEXT 24 HRS.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
SEBRELL AND FRANKLIN THREATENING MINOR FLDG. MODERATE RAINFALL MAY              
BRING BRIEF RISES ALL AREAS...OTRW...CONDS SHOULD IMPRV THRU THE                
WKND/ERY NEXT WK DUE TO PD OF DRY WX.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLIMATE...                                                                     
RECORD LOWS SAT-SUN                                                             
     SAT AM 8/7     SUN AM 8/8                                                  
RIC     53/1933        57/2002                                                  
ORF     59/1948        60/1950                                                  
SBY     50/2002        48/2002                                                  
ECG     53/1957        55/1995                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...25                                                       
AVIATION/MARINE...32                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
116 PM MDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                   
AS A SURGE OF MONSOON RELATED SHOWERS AND MINOR VORT MAX MOVE NE                
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...A SECOND SURGE/VORT MAX IS           
MOVING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS FROM AZ. RUC AND MESOETA SHOW THIS               
SECOND SURGE TO SLIDE A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THIS EVEING THAN DID           
THIS MORNING'S PRECIPITATION AREA. THE PATCH OF CLEARING BETWEEN THE            
TWO SURGES IS ALLOWING ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO KICK OFF SCATTERED             
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LA SALS AND ABAJOS MTNS AND SW CO. HAVE                  
INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF           
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD                 
ALLOW FOR COOLER MIN TEMPS AS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT               
FORECAST.                                                                       
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM WILL SHIFT WEST TO AZ...             
CAUSING THE FLOW ALOFT TO SHIFT FROM SW TO NW EVENTUALLY. THIS IS A             
MUCH DRIER PATH. CLEARER SKIES AND WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MAX                
TEMPS TO RECOVER 5-10 DEGREES OVER TODAY'S MAXES. ENOUGH MOISTURE               
WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.                                        
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLIDES FARTHER WEST, NEAR THE                 
AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT OF MOISTURE TO THE              
SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. FLOW               
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY, AND A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW             
FOR SOME AFTERNOON, TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION (MAINLY SOUTH). LARGER            
LOW CENTER MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH               
EFFECT ON CWA. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRYING TREND CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE                 
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WHILE LOW PRESSURE              
CENTERS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST                
INDUCE A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME               
MORE NORTHWEST. ONLY ISOLATED (MAINLY DRY) DIURNAL MOUNTAIN                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY            
ABOVE NORMAL.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
CJC/BA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
359 PM EDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS...THEN NEXT CHC            
OF RAIN SUN AFT INTO MON.                                                       
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH             
A TROF OFF THE W COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE U.S WRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL             
CANADA...AND A TROF OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A               
WEAK SHRTWV TOPPING THE RDG OVER THE CNTRL CONUS HAS DEVELOPED                  
CONVECTION IN WAA REGIME OVER THE DKTAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AND            
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FROM MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GRT             
LAKES AS SFC HIGH DOMINATES.                                                    
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH INLAND AREAS CNTRL/W DECOUPLING AS              
SFC HIGH PRES DRAWS NEAR. UPSTREAM TEMPS LAST NIGHT OVER NRN MN                 
DROPPED INTO THE MID 30S UNDER THE SFC RDG AXIS SO WOULD EXPECT SOME            
MID 30S TO BE REACHED OVER THE COOLER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE WEST            
CLOSER TO WHERE THE RDG AXIS IS FCST TO BE LATER TONIGHT. THE ERN               
HALF OF THE FCST AREA WILL SEE A LGT NNW GRAD WIND AHEAD OF THE RDG.            
THIS LIGHT MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN INTERIOR EAST FROM FALLING               
MUCH BELOW MID 40S...IN LINE WITH 12Z MOS GUIDANCE.                             
MID-LVL RIDGE BUILDS IN MORE OVER THE AREA AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO              
10-12C. LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF LAKE              
MI WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE OFF LAKE SUPERIOR GIVEN SFC                 
RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE W. KEPT FAIRLY CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS               
WITH INLAND SPOTS REACHING LOW 70S NORTH AND EAST AND UPPER 70S                 
ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR                
SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.                                     
ALTHOUGH SFC RIDGE HOLDS OVER UPPER MI FRI NIGHT AND RADIATIONAL                
COOLING SHOULD BE IDEAL...MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM FRIDAY'S DIURNAL                
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER                 
INLAND MIN TEMPS...MID 40S.                                                     
ON SAT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THRU THE UPR RIDGE INTO THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES PER GFS AND TO LESSER EXTENT ETA. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN              
PLACE...EXPECT LTL MORE THAN MID-LVL CLDS FROM THIS FEATURE AND THIS            
AGREES WITH MODEL QPF FIELDS. HIGHER 850 MB TEMPS BY 1-2C FROM                  
SUBSIDENCE WARMING ALONG WITH A LGT SLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW INLAND                
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPR 70S TO AROUND 80.                                   
00Z AND 12Z MODELS TRENDING SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH NEXT SYSTEM DUE                
INTO WRN ZONES SUN EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST LATER SUN NIGHT. ONLY            
KEPT CHC OF TSRA IN WRN HALF ZONES ON SUNDAY AFT...THEN BROUGHT CHC             
POPS INTO ENTIRE CWA SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.             
EXTENDED...(TUE THROUGH THU)...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND GFS                   
ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATED 5H TROUGH AXIS LINGERING OVER THE AREA ON               
TUE STILL JUSTIFING IN LOW CHC POP FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA.                     
WED INTO THU...WX PICTURE BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN IN A NW FLOW             
BETWEEN 5H TROUGH TO THE EAST AND WEST COAST RDG. 00Z OPERATIONAL               
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER POSSIBLE WEAK SHRTWV MOVING DOWN LATE            
WED ALTHOUGH NO ASSOC BOUNDARY REFLECTED AT THE SFC WITH THIS                   
FEATURE. MEANWHILE...CANADIAN ENSEMBLE AND PROJECTED OPERATIONAL                
UKMET INDICATE MEAN UPR RDG BUILDING IN FM THE NRN PLAINS AT THIS               
TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL              
BE LIMITED AHEAD OF ANY NW FLOW SYSTEM...WILL ELECT TO KEEP THIS PD             
DRY FOR NOW.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1120 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY TO INCREASE POPS A             
BIT IN THE EAST/SE AND TO TWEAK THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE. MAX TEMPS               
ARE PRETTY CLOSE AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS THERE. HAVE FIXED            
THE TEMP CURVE AS SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR HIGH IN THE NEXT FEW            
HRS...OTHERS A BIT LATER. TOUGH TEMP CURVE TODAY WITH FROPA...CLDS              
AND RAIN. CURRENT TRENDS AND DATA FROM THE RUC40 INDICATE THIS BAND             
OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REGENERATE AND MOVE ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL AND SE               
CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG THETA E ADVECTION AT 850 MB AND COMBINATION              
OF THE 500 MB SHORT WAVE...FEEL THIS BAND OF ACTIVITY WILL                      
CONSOLIDATE AND BRING MEASURABLE RAIN...OVERALL NOT TOO MUCH...TO A             
LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN CWA. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE TO                
60%. ALSO FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG            
THE FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN N MS...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS             
WOULD MAINLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL                
MOISTURE RESIDES. BASICALLY HAVE LEFT THE 40% POPS GOING FOR THE                
REST OF THE AREA.                                                               
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
36/ENTREMONT                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
335 PM CDT THU AUG 5 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL                 
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH            
CAA STILL OCCURING WEAKLY.  WILL SEE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.                
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 50S...WITH LOWER 50S FOUND IN                  
ILLINOIS.  AIMING TO GET INTO THE LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HERE...AIDED BY             
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.  WILL SEE NEAR RECORD                    
LOWS...WITH THE CLOSEST TO RECORD EXPECTED AT KSTJ.                             
STILL COOLER AIR IN PLACE ON FRIDAY...BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME                  
MIDLEVEL WARM UP BY THE END OF THE DAY.  SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS A                
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.  THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO             
THE WEEKEND AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP AGAIN.                                  
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST            
IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO SKIRT THE             
CANADIAN/US BORDER AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN                  
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS AT THE END OF THE                   
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY            
GOOD WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ON                 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAIN                 
INHIBITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LIMITED                   
MOISTURE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AN ADEQUATE FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE...SO              
WILL NOT INCREASE CURRENT 30-40 POPS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF AND              
GFS MODELS PROG A SECOND SHORTWAVE TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE                
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR               
NOW DUE TO TIMING/PLACEMENT/MOISTURE UNCERTAINTIES. AS FAR AS                   
TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...EXPECT BELOW-NORMAL READINGS THROUGH               
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                            
LVQ/LS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
300 AM THU...                                                                   
STRATUS HAS BEEN ERODING EARLY THIS MORNING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN             
FROM THE NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION HAS ALSO AIDED IN THE              
EROSION OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BY EATING INTO THE INVERSION LAYER                
ABOVE THE STRATUS. THE RUC MODEL SIMULATED THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC            
PROFILE THE BEST DURING THIS UNUSUAL EARLY AUGUST STRATUS EVENT.                
USING THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 925MB RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, THE             
LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD BE ERODED IN ALL BUT THE PAOLA AND BUTLER                 
AREAS BY SUNRISE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM               
STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ENJOY MOSTLY                 
SUNNY SKIES TODAY.                                                              
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS TONIGHT. KANSAS CITY'S             
RECORD LOW IS 55 DEGREES (1990) AND SAINT JOSEPH'S IS 54 DEGREES                
(ALSO 1990). ONE MUST LOOK TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN                  
TO FIND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS ON THIS MORNING'S SURFACE CHART.               
GETTING THIS DRY AIR INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI, FOR OPTIMAL                       
RADIATIONAL COOLING, MAY BE TOUGH WITH RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL                    
CONDITIONS IN THE REGION. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM STORMS ON THE HIGH               
PLAINS TONIGHT MAY ALSO IMPEDE RADIATIONAL COOLING SOMEWHAT. SAINT              
JOSEPH WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER SHOT TO BREAK THE RECORD TONIGHT             
SINCE THE ASOS SITS IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS THERE WILL              
LIKELY DECOUPLE EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE SENSOR AT MCI SITS                     
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN ELEVATION AND WILL LIKELY ENDURE AN EAST WIND            
AROUND 5KTS ALL NIGHT LONG.                                                     
COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE             
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF             
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ULTIMATELY TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS            
ON SUNDAY AND DISLODGE IT. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO              
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE               
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO             
THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF THESE              
FEATURES, BUT MOISTURE RETURN WILL DETERMINE WHETHER CONVECTION WILL            
BE ISOLATED OR WIDESPREAD WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR             
NOW WE HAVE ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON                  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.                                                              
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFOEAX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo