Title  : IAIOES09 REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP ON ENSO AND INTERANNUAL CLIMATE
         VARIABILITY
Type   : IAI Newsletter
NSF Org: GEO
Date   : August 8, 1995
File   : iaioes08



THE INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL
CHANGE RESEARCH






 REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP
ON ENSO AND INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY








July 12-15, 1994
Lima, Peru



TABLE OF CONTENTS

=46OREWORD         1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY       3 =09
        =09
I. ENSO - A GLOBAL CONCERN     7
 1. Effects of ENSO        7   =09
 2. Why We Study It       8   =09
 3. The IAI Role        9    =09

II.  THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE  11
 1. Early Modeling Attempts     15  =09
 2. The Future of Forecasting     16 =09
=09
III.   CONCERNS AND DIFFICULTIES    19

IV.  ISSUES AND PRIORITIES     21
 1. The Need for a Central Data Repository  22
 2. Advancing the Scientific Agenda   22
 3. Linkages with Other Programs    23

V.  AN AGENDA FOR ACTION     25
 1. Research Recommendations    25 =09
 2. Assessment and Application    28
 3. Data Collection and Management   29
 4. Modeling and Forecasting     33
 5. Human Dimensions      34

 VI.  REFERENCES       36

 APPENDIX 1: IAI Initial Scientific Themes  39

 APPENDIX 2: Acronyms      40

 APPENDIX 3: Workshop Participants   42




=46OREWORD

   This report details the results of a scientific workshop held
on the subject of the El Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on July 12-15
in Lima, Peru. Attending and contributing to the workshop were 74
people,  most of them with scientific training, from 12 member
countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research
(IAI).  The purpose of the workshop was to coordinate activities
involved with the documentation and prediction of interannual climate
variability in the Americas, and to outline plans for the identification
and the assessment needs of potential climate forecast users. The
workshop suggested an agenda for inter-American study and
cooperation that might lead to the successful application of forecasts of
ENSO-related climate variability. The IAI recognizes that many factors
contribute to interannual climate variability, but the Institute has
chosen to encourage study of ENSO as a principal determiner of that
variability, and to take advantage of the ENSO predictability factor.

   The Inter-American Institute, which sponsored the
workshop, was created in May of 1992 to address the need for
advanced study of regionally significant global change issues. The
Institute is designed to evolve as a network of research facilities
throughout the Americas which will augment research capabilities and
promote education and training within the scientific fields most
important to current and future global change research. Representati-
ves of 16 nations have signed the agreement establishing the Institute.

   The agreement notes the importance of an evolving scientific
agenda that reflects an appropriate  balance among the biogeographic
areas of scientific importance. It also stresses the need to address in an
integral fashion the physical, economic, and social issues relating to
global change. To identify the most pressing scientific questions and
socioeconomic issues within those seven priority topics, a group of
physical and social scientists met in Silver Spring, Maryland, in the
United States on March 5-6, 1992. The resulting document, the Report
of the Meeting of Scientific Experts, provides the basis for a series of
seven workshops on scientific program development, intended to
advance the science agenda of IAI.

   The ENSO workshop was the fifth held in the series.  The
previous four were: The Comparative Studies of Oceanic,
  Coastal, and Estuarine Processes in Temperate Zones  (Montevideo,
Uruguay),  High Latitude Processes  (Buenos Aires, Argentina),
Ocean/Land/Atmosphere Interactions in the Inter-tropical Americas
(Panam=E1 City, Panam=E1), and Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical
Cycles (S=E3o Jos=E9 dos Campos, Brazil).  The final two workshops will
concern The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems
(Durham, N.C., USA), and The Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on
Biodiversity (Guadalajara, M=E9xico).
=09
   This report on the Lima workshop details the scientific
research plans that propose observational strategies, lays down data
management guidelines, and outlines the modeling developments
needed to achieve the objectives of the workshop.  It is only a plan, a
guide to action.  The next step, as the science plan states, is to develop
an implementation plan or program for the topic.

   Our most sincere thanks to all who helped in the preparation
of this report.  Special acknowledgment must be given to members of
the steering committee who helped organize the workshop.  Steering
committee members were:  David Enfield, NOAA/AOML; Pablo Lagos,
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA; Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth
Observations; Michael Glantz, NCAR; and James Buizer, NOAA/OGP.
Others in Lima who assisted in organization included:  Hector Soldi,
Guillermo Johnson, Alejandra Martinez, and Carlos Ere=F1o.  Local
institutions participating in organization of the workshop were the
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA, Direcci=F3n de Hidrograf=EDa y Navegaci=F3=
n,
Comit=E9 Peruano para el Cambio Global, Instituto del Mar del Per=FA,
Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa e Hidrograf=EDa.

   Additionally, I would like to express my most sincere thanks
to Dr. Robert Corell (National Science Foundation), Dr. Michael Hall, Lisa
=46arrow and Claudia Nierenberg (NOAA/OGP) for their constant
enthusiasm and support during the development of this workshop.
=46inally, I would like to acknowledge the commitment, dedication and
enthusiasm of my staff members, Raquel Gomes, Marcella Ohira and
D=E9lia Levandoski, without whose support in preparing this report
would have been impossible to accomplish.
=09
 Rub=E9n Lara Lara
 IAI Executive Scientist

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


    Peruvian fishermen have been saying for years that a
large pool of warm water exists far out to sea and that occasionally it
moves closer to land and stays there for several months. Because this
near-shore warming typically begins around Christmas they called the
event, "El Ni=F1o," the Spanish word for the Christ child. They knew the
warm water intrusion adversely affected the rich fishing grounds they
enjoyed in the normal cold water upwellings along the coast. Over the
past decade the scientific world has realized that the event also affects
climate on a global basis, causing damaging floods in normally dry
areas, bringing drought to areas that usually experience adequate
rainfall. Because the warming that it brings originates in the tropics,
they now refer to the phenomenon as the El Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation,
or ENSO.

    To define a scientific agenda for further investigation of
ENSO, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI)
brought together more than 40 scientists from 13 countries of the
Americas in the Peruvian capital.  In plenary sessions and work groups
they attempted to design a science plan to accomplish the following:

(a) increase the understanding of the ENSO phenomenon and related
climate variability;
(b) improve forecasting of climate at season to interannual time
 scales;
(c) maximize the utility of this information for affected societies of the
region.

    Knowledge about ENSO processes has increased rapidly
in recent years, it was pointed out in plenary, but forecasting of El Ni=F1o
events remains in the early stages of development.  ENSO appears in an
irregular cycle, recurring at intervals of three to seven years.
Socioeconomic effects can be disastrous, as witnessed by the collapse of
the once-dominant Peruvian fishing industry after the event of 1972-
73.  The ENSO of 1982-83 caused crop losses in several countries
estimated at more than US$13 billion, and some two thousand deaths.
Many of these losses could be avoided by improved forecasting, which
would be enhanced by additional data relating to ENSO events.  Nations
highly affected by El Ni=F1o, such as Peru and Brazil, have already seen
socioeconomic impacts alleviated by providing predictive information to
farmers and fishermen.

    The need for improved communication was a dominant
theme throughout the workshop.  Since it would be extremely difficult
and costly for any one country to gather all the information necessary
to fully understand climate variability, the pooling of scientific
information and cooperation in research and training becomes essential.
Recognizing this need for a regional approach, the IAI offered its
resources to assist in the following:

(a) scientific cooperation between national laboratories and universities;
(b) complimentary use of infrastructure and expertise;
(c) creation of an inter-American communication network;
(d) access to field experiments and data collection; and
(e) use of the IAI to promote research and funding.

    Participants also discussed the need for improved
communication between the scientific world and the general public and
policy makers.  Without this communication the socioeconomic
importance of scientific knowledge may not be addressed, and adequate
preventative action may not be taken.

     Meeting in four separate working groups and
comparing their discussions periodically in plenaries, participants
determined that the following questions require further investigation
by the scientific community:

(1) What  are the most important variables for inter-American  climate
studies? What different types of data included in such variables are
worthy of research work?
(2) Which and what type of institutions possess such data?
(3) In what form are data available?  What difficulties do institutions face
in trying to digitize and process data?
(4) Which institutions are capable of storing different types of data and
making it available to the community?
(5) What are the "filters" or scientific specifications necessary to determi=
ne
which data should be included?

    Since improved data collection is critical to forecasting
of ENSO events, participants made the following recommendations:

(1) That the following data be assembled and completed and placed in
electronic files :
Climate/Surface: air temperature, specific humidity, sea level pressure,
wind, precipitation, and solar radiation.
Altitude: winds, wind temperature, pressure and humidity in standard
levels (radio waves and radio wind waves).
Hydrological: river flows and lakes and reservoir levels.
Oceanic: thermal profile data through buoys and drifting buoys, fisheries
statistics and marine biology.
Renewable Marine Resources: registry of selected plankton and
chlorophyll series from fixed stations and cruise data; fisheries statistics
of pelagic and demersal debarkations. Some selected series of indicator
species. Inventories should be done of existing species and their
condition.
(2) That those series with the greatest extension in time be identified, and
to ensure that they are placed in an easily accessible electronic file.
(3)  That the IAI coordinate with the U.S. and European agencies to obtain
a free anonymous access for hemispheric researchers to use existing
large scale files.
(4) In the case of meteorological/climatological and altitude data, lesser
duration station data should be obtained also, wherever these are most
complete from 1980 to the present, in order to improve geographical
coverage in the modern time.
(5) Ways should be found to eliminate excessive costs for extracting
certain data from some organizations.

    In summary, the groups made the following suggestions
for generally advancing scientific information about ENSO:

*  increase the empirical studies to advance the understanding of the year
to year climate variability.
*  increase the empirical studies to develop predictive knowledge of the
influence of climate variability on socioeconomic activities.
*  encourage an interdisciplinary approach to ENSO that looks not only at
 temperatures and rainfall but also socioeconomic impacts.
*  include social scientists in the study of ENSO so they can serve as liais=
on
 between science, the general public, and decision-makers.
*  create and circulate a catalogue of models, modelers, and researchers so
 scientists become aware of available information.
*  standardize data collection for easierexchange, and digitize data to
 increase speed of compilation.
*  circulate a questionnaire that helps determine the data needs of various
 areas within the region.
*  create a central data bank and circulate information from it through
 Internet.
*  examine long-term data from in situ observations and paleoclimatic time
 series.
*  improve climatic station data, mainly meteorological and hydrological.

   All groups agreed that the role of the IAI should be that
of a catalyst in promoting regional cooperation through further workshops
and cross-border visitations, by helping improve communication, and by
initiating education and training programs to increase the numbers of
skilled personnel. "IAI is the glue that can pull all this together and make=
 it
stick," was one comment.























I. ENSO--A GLOBAL CONCERN

  Local fishermen off the coast of Peru have long known of the
regular onset of warm ocean temperatures during the calendar months
December and January of each year.  The fishermen originally named this
phenomenon "El Ni=F1o," the Christ child, in recognition of its occurrence
during the Christmas season.  The magnitude of the ocean surface
temperature warming varies from one year to the next, and over time the
term "El Ni=F1o" has come to describe just the years in which the ocean
temperatures in these calendar months are much warmer than normal.

  In the past several decades, scientific studies have provided a
more comprehensive picture of the "El Ni=F1o" phenomenon.  Years with
abnormally warm ocean surface temperatures along the Peruvian coast are
associated with abnormally warm surface temperatures up and down the
Pacific coast of the Americas and across the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador
to the dateline.  The changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface
temperatures influence the distribution of organized precipitation over this
ocean basin, and give rise to a pattern of abnormal surface pressures that
spans the tropics, the "Southern Oscillation".  Associated changes in the
atmospheric surface winds over the Pacific Ocean influence the ocean
circulation in this ocean basin, which acts to further modify the ocean
surface temperatures.  The name given to this phenomenon, "El Ni=F1o
Southern Oscillation (ENSO), includes the names for both the primary
oceanic and atmosphere manifestations of this phenomenon, and the use of
both names reflects the importance of the interaction between the ocean
and atmosphere. Some earlier and detailed description of the phenomenon
can be found in the works of Horel and Wallace (1981); Rasmusson and
Carpenter (1982); Kousky et al., (1984); Ropelewski and Halpert (1987); and
Philander (1989).

What are the effects of ENSO?

  Anyone who has taken a hot bath in an enclosed bathroom
knows that water and the air above it interact when fluctuations in
temperature occur.  Run a hot bath and the room warms and the mirror
mists over as moisture is carried aloft by the heated surface of the water.
Similar mechanisms--and many more--are activated when an El Ni=F1o
occurs.   The warmer water surface and the atmosphere interact to cause
anomalous wind and climate patterns, affecting weather over wide areas of
the globe.  Areas that are normally dry experience unusual and sometimes
highly damaging amounts of rain.  At the same time, areas accustomed to
considerable rainfall experience debilitating drought.

Why do we want to know more about ENSO?

  Climate affects virtually every aspect of human life.  The
ability of societies to adapt to climate has determined survivability since
the beginning of time.  Seasonal changes in climate in a particular region
are generally understood by people living there.  But dramatic shifts away
from the expected patterns can cause extreme physical and economic
hardship. Because extended periods of warmer water affect fish
populations, the ENSO of 1972-73 contributed to the collapse of the
Peruvian anchoveta fishing industry, which by tonnage had made Peru the
number one fishing nation in the world.  The ENSO of 1982-83, believed the
most severe of this century, caused losses in several countries estimated at
more than 13 billion U.S. dollars, and some two thousand deaths (Canby,
1984; Glantz, 1984).  Northeastern Brazil, home to more than 20 million
people, is often severely affected by droughts, while southern Brazil
experiences damaging floods, and ENSO events appear to play a part in
these anomalies.  Floods also impact Paraguay, Uruguay and northern
Argentina during an ENSO event, as do flash floods in the coastal plains
region of northern Peru and southern Ecuador.  Anomalously wet conditions
are typical along the subtropical west coast (central Chile) during the
austral winter.  Contrasting with these climate anomalies, droughts tend to
occur in northern South America and in the Altiplano region, during major
ENSO episodes.  Precipitation and temperature also drive mosquito
production, so ENSO-related variability can cause increases in diseases such
as dengue fever, yellow fever, and malaria.  Drought removes some of the
predators of rodents, causing not only an increase of rodent-driven diseases
but increased damage to cereal crops.

  Understanding and recognizing the mechanisms that lead up to
an ENSO event could aid in the prediction of such occurrences, thereby
alleviating much suffering and economic hardship.  By applying updated
information related to climate variability and its effects, governments can
advise their citizens of upcoming climatic changes, and industries can
prepare for possible variations in precipitation and temperature.  With
advice passed on through public television and radio networks, farmers can
plan the types of crops and seeds they should plant in the coming growing
season, according to the climate expected.  Industries dependent upon
water use can know what water resources might be available.  Since water
temperature affects fish patterns, fishermen and fishing industries can
anticipate what catch they might expect, thus optimizing the use of fuel and
fishing arts and maximizing the human effort. If necessary, regulatory
agencies can take measures to protect spawning stocks, thus avoiding the
demise of commercially important populations.

  The advantages of climate predictions have already been
demonstrated.  Peru's GNP and the gross value for the agriculture sector
dropped drastically following the 1982-83 episode, but not during an event
of 1986-87 after farmers were advised to expect below-normal
precipitation (Lagos and Buizer, 1992).  With no warning in 1987, grain
production in Brazil's state of Cear=E1 dropped to 15 per cent of the normal
production;  However, when ENSO forecasts and monitoring were applied to
decision-making processes in 1991-92,  grain production was 82 per cent of
mean production.

  Although some successful predictions have occurred, gaps
remain in understanding of the phenomena, gaps that might be filled with
more widespread reporting of temperature and rainfall variations, and
their application to more sophisticated and effective prediction procedures.
The gathering of critical information can be greatly facilitated by a region=
al
cooperative approach between nations.

What is the role of IAI in understanding ENSO?

  It would be extremely difficult and costly for any one country
to gather all the information necessary to understand and predict climate
variability.  Several countries are currently employing programs that trace
temperature and rainfall patterns throughout a given area.  Since the
effects of climate variation cross geopolitical borders, the pooling of
information can enhance the data input into numerical models aimed at
predicting climate change, and help determine the influences of topography
and land-sea contrasts.

  In recognition of the importance of a regional approach to the
ENSO phenomenon, the IAI seeks to promote the open exchange of scientific
data currently available, to encourage the gathering of new data and
information through the Institute's research programs, and to increase the
regional capacity for data collection and analysis through education and
training programs.  The IAI seeks to assist its member states in achieving
the "critical mass" of local infrastructures--and the necessary regional lin=
ks
between them--to successfully prosecute climate change research and
extend it to economically and socially relevant applications.  This workshop
itself was designed to facilitate the development of multinational,
interdisciplinary linkages within scientific communities throughout the
Americas that seek to know more about ENSO, and to define the research
priorities that will further that understanding.




























II. THE CURRENT STATE
OF KNOWLEDGE

  Understanding of the ENSO phenomenon has improved
substantially over the past decade.  Improved techniques for monitoring
the ocean and the atmosphere along with advances in dynamical modeling
have allowed science to better perceive how the coupled ocean-atmosphere
system works in producing ENSO-related variability.  That perception has
led to skillful forecasts of warm and cold episodes up to a year or so in
advance.

  The seminal figure in defining the role of the atmosphere in the
ENSO was Sir Gilbert Walker, the Director-General of Observatories in India
early in this century.  Aware of the swings of sea level pressure from South
America to the Indian-Australian region and back over a period of several
years, he added correlates from all over the globe.  Heavy rainfall in the
central equatorial Pacific, he noticed, occurred while drought was taking
place in India.  Warm winters in southwestern Canada contrasted with cold
ones in the southeastern U.S.   His methods were strictly empirical, and the
climate record for subsequent years has corroborated many of the
relationships he documented.

  Following Walker's work, key insights were made by a
prominent Norwegian meteorologist, Jacob Bjerknes.  He grasped that the
ENSO is to be understood neither as an atmospheric nor an oceanic
phenomenon, but as a phenomenon depending intrinsically on the
interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean (Bjerknes, 1966; 1967).
A theory of ENSO would therefore accurately describe how the atmospheric
winds change the sea surface temperature (SST) which is simultaneously
producing changes in the atmospheric winds.

  The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an irregular cycle, with
extremes recurring at intervals of 3 to 7 years.  Among the more important
impacts are those which arise from variations in the regional precipitation
regimes of North, Central, and South America.  The SO can appear in either
of two phases, the warm phase, or a cold phase known as El Ni=F1a, and the
climate anomalies brought on by each are essentially the opposite of those
brought on by the other phase.  In other words, if a warm phase brings
excessive rain to a certain area, a cold phase will usually bring drought.
The correspondence is not perfect, however, because other factors also
come into play, and because random variability also occurs.

  Though each ENSO event has its own peculiarities, most seem to
follow a general pattern.  At an early stage, anomalously warm surface
waters are found in the western equatorial Pacific.  The prevailing
westward blowing trade winds drag the surface water along with them, so
the thermocline, or dividing line between the warm surface water and the
cold water beneath, had become quite deep to the west and shallow to the
east.  Associated with the warm surface temperatures in the west is an
increase in convective activity, and at a certain stage, a persistent
slackening of the trade winds.  With the lessening of pressure from the
trades, the warm sea surface tilts eastward in a Kelvin wave, akin to
sloshing in a bathtub.  The result is a dramatic and expansive warming of
the tropical Pacific Ocean from the dateline to the South American coast,
and spreading northward  to Alaska and southward to Chile along the
coastline of the Americas.  Because the warmest temperatures move
eastward, further disruption of the trade winds occur.  Very heavy rains
fall in normally arid regions of Peru and Ecuador, while droughts are
experienced in Australia and anomalous tropical cyclones occur in regions
such as French Polynesia and Hawaii.  Farther away, there are often
disruptions of the Indian monsoon and the seasonal rains of northeast
Brazil.  In severe instances, regional climates over much of East Asia, Nort=
h
America, and Africa are affected.  Figure 1 documents the physical scale of
typical fluctuations in the atmosphere during January through May of an
ENSO event.  The shading indicates the regions over the oceans which
experience greater than normal precipitation during an ENSO , and the
contour field indicates a tendency for the increased temperatures in the
lower atmosphere poleward and eastward of the enhanced precipitation.
Consistent with the temperature fluctuations are deviations in mid-level
atmospheric winds, with the sense of the wind deviations over the IAI
region indicated by the arrows.  These anomalies tend to be most notable in
the respective winter seasons of the northern and southern hemispheres.
The wind deviations over the IAI region modify the regular seasonal cycle
over the region to produce variations in precipitation or surface
temperatures that directly affect citizens of the IAI countries.  Many of th=
e
details of the relationship between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation
over the IAI countries in this and other calendar months remain to be
elucidated by researchers.  (The data sets employed to construct this figure
are of manageable size and are available free-of-charge to IAI researchers
for detailed studies of the conditions in their region)










                  Fig. 1




  =09






  Figure 2 indicates regions of extreme precipitation and surface
temperature conditions that are linked with the Pacific SST distribution
during the calendar months December, January, and February of ENSO
events.  The precipitation anomalies may not occur in those three months,
but be lagged;  a documentation of the influence of ENSO on precipitation
and surface temperature with finer spatial resolution in the IAI countries
and  for  all  seasons  is  a  goal  of  the  IAI (Some  of  the relationshi=
ps
indicated in Fig. 2 are derived on the basis of only a few time series, and
may not be representative of the climate tendencies over broad regions of
each country).  This project will require the development of historical time
series (of 30 years' length or more) of the key climate variables in the IAI
countries, and the sharing of observations between countries to document
the spatial scale of these climate anomalies.


=09


                                Fig. 2






  Further research activities are being developed concerning
other regional processes that contribute to inter-annual climate variability=
,
including land-surface processes.  An example is the relationship between
northeast Brazil precipitation in its rainy season (February through May)
and simultaneous Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures.  Figure 3 shows
typical ocean surface temperature conditions over the Atlantic and eastern
Pacific Oceans during a wetter than normal rainy season in northeast Brazil
(see white X).  In addition to the Pacific ENSO cycle, the conditions
responsible for fluctuations in precipitation in northeast Brazil are also
associated with changes occurring in the Atlantic Ocean and the overlying
atmosphere as far away as the coast of Greenland.  Similar studies relating
regional precipitation amounts to ocean conditions need to be performed by
researchers in other countries of the IAI, with an eye towards the possible
planetary scale of the climate phenomena that affect their country.







           Fig. 3








  The first model to successfully simulate ENSO, that of Cane et
al., (1986) depicts in a simplified manner the evolution of the tropical
Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere.  One of the most significant results
of these dynamical model simulations was the recurrence of ENSO at
irregular intervals as a result of strictly internal processes, without any
imposed perturbations.  Analysis of the model helped in developing the
now widely accepted theory that treats ENSO as an internal mode of
oscillation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, perpetuated by a
continuous imbalance between the tightly coupled surface winds and
temperatures on the one hand, and the more sluggish oceanic subsurface
heat reservoir on the other.  This theory has a number of implications for
the prediction of El Ni=F1o events.  First is that, since the essential
interactions take place in the tropical Pacific, data from that region alone
may produce useful forecasts.  Second, the memory of the coupled system
must reside in the ocean.  Anomalies in the atmosphere are dissipated far
too quickly to persist from one El Ni=F1o event to the next.  The surface la=
yers
of the ocean are also too transitory.  Hence, the theory goes, the memory
must be in the subsurface ocean thermal structure, with the crucial set of
information for El  Ni=F1o forecasts residing in the spatial variation of th=
e
depth of the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Early Modeling Attempts

  In 1985 a group at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of
Columbia University at Palisades, New York, began experimenting with a
model to simulate and also predict El Ni=F1o.  The initial successes of the
model, and the theory that evolved from it, argued for a deterministic
origin of ENSO; that is, a systematic evolution throughout the cycle rather
than a sequence of random events.  However, even deterministic systems
that are chaotic have limited predictability, and in this case the situation
was made worse by a very poor observational base over vast regions of the
tropical Pacific.  Nevertheless, forecasts were made by utilizing
observations of surface winds over the ocean, as far back as 1964.  On the
basis of these wind data they ran the ocean component of the model to
generate currents, thermocline depths, and temperatures that served as
initial conditions for forecasts, a necessary step because of the lack of
direct
observations of ocean variables. Each forecast then consisted of choosing th=
e
conditions corresponding to a particular time, and running the coupled
model ahead to predict the evolution of the combined ocean-atmosphere
model.  By making predictions based on past periods they could compare
forecasts direct with reality.  The results showed the ability to predict El
Ni=F1o events more than a year in advance.   The model then successfully
made its first actual prediction, of the El Ni=F1o event of 1986-87.  The 19=
91-
92 event, predicted more than a year in advance, has also proven to be
correct, as reported by Kerr (1992).

  Currently  several research groups are doing routine ENSO
predictions, using a variety of methods.   Regular observational updates for
the tropical Pacific and summaries of forecast results are published
monthly in the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (available from the Climate
Analysis Center of NOAA, Washington, D.C.).  This information has been used
by groups in Peru, Northeast Brazil, India, China, Ethiopia, the United Stat=
es,
Australia and elsewhere to suggest actions to mitigate the effects of the
local climate variations associated with ENSO.  More sophisticated and
effective prediction procedures are emerging rapidly.  The coupled general
circulation model being run at the U.S. National Meteorological Center is a
state-of-the-art procedure for creating fields of oceanic initial conditions=
,
taking advantage of the vastly expanded tropical Pacific Ocean data sets
available from the observational network brought into being by the TOGA
(Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere) program (whose primary objective is
the prediction of climate on time scales of months to years) (Hayes et al.,
1991).  This prediction scheme successfully forecast the warming in early
1993, a feature all other schemes failed to predict correctly.

The Future of Forecasting

  More in situ data will become available for assimilation not
only with the TOGA network but also as ocean climate observing systems
expand more fully into the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans during the
post-TOGA period.  These expansions will provide better documentation of
regional ENSO-related climate impacts, and improved real-time analyses for
coupled model initialization.  Enhanced sampling of ocean-atmosphere
variability in the Indian Ocean in particular may lead to improved skill at
long lead times because surface winds in the tropical Indian Ocean lead
those over the tropical Pacific Ocean on intraseasonal to interannual  time
scales (Barnett, 1983; Lau and Chan, 1986; and Barnett et al., 1988; and
Yasunari, 1990).

  Satellite sea level, wind speed and wind stress retrievals (i.e.
from ERS-1 or TOPEX/POSEIDON) have yet to be fully utilized for initializing
dynamical model-based short-term climate forecast schemes.  Moreover,
data assimilation procedures for coupled ocean-atmosphere models (as
opposed to ocean-alone or atmosphere-alone models) have yet to be
developed and implemented.  Model simulations are known to be sensitive
to the parameterization of subgrid scale physics (e.g. Miller et al., 1992;
Stockdale et al., 1993;  Smith and Hess, 1993).  Improvements in these
parameterizations in atmospheric models (e.g. cumulus convection,
boundary layer processes, etc.) and oceanic models (upper ocean mixing)
will improve the ability of models to accurately simulate climate variabilit=
y,
and will optimize data assimilation procedures by ensuring compatibility
between model dynamics and data fields to be blended.

  The most common validation data set for determining a
successful model ENSO prediction at present is the NINO3 region (5=B0N-5=B0S=
,
90=B0W-150=B0W) SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific.  However, for
mitigating against the adverse societal impacts of ENSO, specific regional
tropical and extratropical precipitation and air temperature forecasts are
more relevant to predict.  Ultimately, coupled global ocean-atmosphere
GCM's may be the most desirable means of providing forecasts based on
their ability to simulate more comprehensive and geographically extensive
physical interactions lacking in intermediate, limited domain models.
Already, the atmospheric GCM run at NMC for ENSO forecasting is capable of
simulating rainfall variability over the continental United States in hindca=
st
mode, with the ability to distinguish between the heavy rainfall conditions
in the southwest during boreal winter 1982-83 and 1991-92 versus
drought conditions during boreal winter 1986-87.

  Progress in climate prediction has come about primarily from
studies of a small number of ENSO events (about 10) and even fewer La
Ni=F1a events over the past 40 years.  Moreover, only in the past 10-15 year=
s
has the oceanic data been of sufficient quantity and quality to examine
critical ENSO-related processes in detail.  Research is now advancing on
other interannual and interdecadal time scale phenomena through the
analysis of global data sets and the development of coupled models capable
of investigating the role of non-ENSO related oceanic anomalies (e.g. at
higher latitudes and at greater depths than observed during ENSO).

  There is much room for improvement in prediction models, and
rapid strides are being taken to incorporate existing technologies from
weather prediction and elsewhere.  A better observing system is critical but
considered attainable.  As recently as 1976 the scientific world barely
understood what an El Ni=F1o event was. Within two decades the mechanics
of such an event have been determined, and the events themselves have
been successfully predicted. With additional observational data, those
predictions can become even more precise to alleviate the negative human
impacts brought on by El Ni=F1o events.






























III. CONCERNS AND DIFFICULTIES

=09
  Communication and cooperation between nations is never a
simple undertaking.   The attempt to pool information internationally to
advance scientific knowledge of ENSO-related variability will be
complicated further by communication impediments at a number of levels:

(a) between scientists of different disciplines,
(b) between national scientific programs that are at different stages of
technological development,
(c) between the scientific world and the general public; the former has
trouble transmitting its message in an understandable and interesting
manner, and the latter is often apathetic about receiving scientific
information;
(d) between nations that, while not hostile, observe standards of national
pride and sovereignty.
=09
  Participants at the workshop gave several examples
dramatizing the potential impediments mentioned above. Social scientist
Mickey Glantz gave a presentation suggesting that nations are becoming
more interested in funding "usable science," as financial resources become
more strained.  "The challenge is to show the usability of scientific output=
,
to show cost-benefit analyses," he said.  "Decision makers and the general
public must be convinced that scientific information can affect the quality
of life."

  There was unanimity in the belief that the scientific playing
field must be leveled.  Member countries at a lower stage of scientific
development need additional training and education.  Computational and
communication facilities must be equalized.   Little can be accomplished
through Internet, it was pointed out, if some areas in the region do not yet
have the required computers or the technical expertise to maintain them.
While more data are needed, methodologies and standards for performing
experiments and collecting data are non-uniform.  Acceptable standards
and procedures should be published.  Institutional impediments to effective
data exchange need to be resolved.
  Modeling and forecasting are non-existent in some countries, it
was pointed out.  Investment in training and education is needed, with
long-term effects expected perhaps five years later.  Scientists also had
little knowledge of the current models available on ocean temperature, etc.
What forecasts are being done on a regional basis?

  In the area of assessment and application, it is believed that
scientists in general do not know the needs that potential users have for
scientific information.  A need exists for some group, perhaps social
scientists, who can interface between scientists and users, to determine the
needs of the users, and deliver information to them in an understandable
way.

  Nor do scientists know what information is available.  A lack of
information exists on progress by the various scientific communities, or of
the gaps which require further research.  Each region should know what
studies might be of interest to them.  "There is a need to know the needs."
Once data is acquired, how is it best used?  Notions of what to do with data
are sometimes vague.  This problem could be alleviated through IAI-
sponsored workshops and educational courses.

  While there has been progress in digitization of monthly
averaged climatic data, in most cases the data have not been digitized.



















IV. ISSUES AND PRIORITIES

  Alleviation of human suffering and hardship is the basic issue
behind the effort to better understand the mechanics of ENSO, and thereby
to improve its prediction.  The objective of the IAI is to facilitate
cooperation among the countries of the Americas in gathering and
assimilating data, so that advance notice of climate variations can be passe=
d
on to diverse sectors of their economies, such as agriculture, energy, water
availability, forestry, industry, fisheries, etc.  To that end, a scientific
agenda for the further study of ENSO should attempt to accomplish the
following:
=09
(a) Increase the understanding of the ENSO phenomenon and related
climate variability;
(b) improve forecasting of climate at seasonal to inter-annual time scales;
(c) maximize the utility of this information for affected societies within t=
he
region.

   The effort requires enhanced hemispheric data archives and
the use of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models to simulate
precipitation, temperature and oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes.
Individual countries are encouraged to collaborate in the effort to enhance
these consolidated data archives.  In addition to current observations,
paleoclimate research in key regions of South America where the current
climate variability is closely linked to ENSO should be encouraged in order
to better understand the frequency of occurrence and intensity of past
events.

     Regional and local processes in a number of locations, such as
sea surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic, need to be understood in
reference to modulation of the regional climate fluctuations.  Climatology a=
t
the regional scales should be better defined, using most of the past data
collected in the region and not yet incorporated in the previous
climatologies.  For example:  jet stream variations and atmospheric blocking
activity in the Altiplano region and southeastern South America during
ENSO should be further explored.

  Teleconnections between the tropical and the extra-tropical
atmosphere have been studied, but many unanswered questions need to be
addressed.  More studies are needed to provide a better description of the
relative influence of the Pacific (ENSO) and Atlantic oceans on the tropical
South and Central Americas, including the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, and
the Caribbean area.

The Need for a Central Clearing House of Information

  Participants at this and previous workshops have expressed
the need for a central data repository where hemispheric historical data
could be stored and become available to all scientists.  In times past a gre=
at
deal of data remained in tabulated form (on paper) at the archives of
governmental institutions to be used for operational, not scientific purpose=
s.
Recently these institutions have achieved progress by digitizing data,  a
task not yet fully completed.  It is believed that other data of great inter=
est
to the scientific community in general exist in the highly developed
countries but remain  unavailable to the majority of Latin Americans.  Some
of these data may be difficult to obtain.  They may also encompass great
volumes which could impose costly computer equipment demands on the
scientists who seek to use it.

  Imagine, for example, a Colombian scientists working in
collaboration with a scientist from another country to understand the
climate in Colombia and its surrounding areas, within the context of ENSO.
The climate of the area in question is controlled by the Inter-Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which has an annual and interannual displacement
ranging from Central America all the way to the northern part of Peru and
Brazil.   The chances of unraveling the thread of variability affecting
Colombia are poor if these colleagues only have data from within the
political borders of that country.  Much time and energy would be
expended pulling together the necessary data, and it would be practically
impossible to obtain non-digitized data from neighboring countries.

Priorities for Advancing the Scientific Agenda

  In summary, participants in the workshop made the following
suggestions for generally advancing scientific information about ENSO:

* encourage an interdisciplinary approach to ENSO that looks not only at
temperatures and rainfall but also socio-economic issues.
* include social scientists in the study of ENSO so they can serve as
liaison between science, the general public, and decision-makers.
* create and circulate a catalogue of models, modelers, and researchers
so scientists become aware of available information.
* standardize data collection for easier exchange, and digitize data to
increase speed of compilation.
* circulate a questionnaire that helps determine the data needs of
various areas within the region.
* identify an existing entity to serve as a repository for hemispheric
data sets and improve its archives through the intercomparison of
inventories.
* make available selected long-term data from in situ observations and
paleoclimatic time series.
* find ways to eliminate excessive costs for extracting data from some
organizations.
* encourage scientific exchange visits, e.g., visiting professorships,
student exchanges, graduate programs for foreign students,
workshops.
* encourage IAI governments to continue funding existing research
groups and to fund new groups.  The region lacks human resources to
conduct the investigations that are needed.  The improvement of data
availability or communication facilities, although badly needed, are
comparatively less urgent than training, development of new research
facilities, and reinforcement of existing ones.

Linkages with Ongoing International Programs

  As a research topic, the study of ENSO-related climate
variations has been undertaken by the World Climate Research Program
(WCRP), under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO), the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the
Intergovern- mental Oceanographic Commission (IOC).  The WCRP
program called TOGA  is of special relevance in this context.  TOGA is a
decade-long (1985-1994), established to further explore the
predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and to explore the
scientific findings that sea surface temperature fluctuations at the basin-
scale of the tropical oceans do indeed impact the large scale atmospheric
circulation.

  The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP)
regional meeting for South America (March, 1990) discussed ENSO as a
topic of special interest for the region.  As such, a close collaboration is
expected with IGBP, including the IGBP/START program (December,
1990).  At the regional level, the ERFEN (Regional Group for Study of
ENSO) Project would benefit from a direct link to IAI, and vice-versa, on
this topic.

  An IAI-sanctioned research center for ENSO would
complement the existing international programs by dedicating itself to
regional issues, related to seasonal to interannual climate variability in
the region.



























V. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION

  In group discussions and plenary sessions over several days,
participants in the IAI workshop on ENSO and Interannual Climate
Variability devised a research agenda for furthering understanding of the
forces that shape the region's climate.  Emphasis was placed on the need
for improved communication, because of the feeling that scientific
knowledge that could lessen the impacts of climate variability has not
adequately reached decision makers and the general public in the past.
A sense of urgency was also evident, as the damaging social and economic
effects of climate have been historically relentless and inevitable.

  Calls for improvements in communication between scientists
were also prevalent in the discussions.  Participants recognized that
suspicions surrounding the sharing of scientific data and research must
be overcome if the regional pooling of information for the common good
is to be successful.  The physical means of communication must also be
improved, as differing stages of development throughout the Americas
leave some without the computer technology capable of rapid
information exchange.  These and other considerations are hereby
presented in their respective categories.

A. Research Recommendations

  There are several climatic variables that are of interest to IAI
member countries.  Precipitation totals over a month or season are the
most important variable, with surface air temperatures similarly
averaged second in importance.  For the benefit of fisheries, ocean near-
surface temperatures and the strength of upwelling are the key
variables.  Following are the empirical studies necessary to improve the
social and economic well-being of the IAI countries:

(1) Empirical Studies to increase Understanding of the Year to Year
Climate Variability in the IAI Countries

  It is recommended that empirical studies be performed by
the member countries of the IAI to both document the regular evolution
of precipitation, surface air temperature, and the three-dimensional
structure of ocean near-surface temperatures and nutrients during a
typical year, and to develop methods to predict interannual variations
from this regular evolution.  Much of this work is already underway in
the member countries, and much work remains to be done.  The regular
evolution of a variable, for example precipitation, during a typical year is
commonly referred to as the seasonal cycle of that variable, and this
usage will be employed in the remainder of this report.

  There are several players that determine the climate and
climate variability of the IAI countries.  One set of players is the
organized oceanic precipitation regions (called the intertropical
convergence zones (ITCZs) which are strongly coupled to the equatorial
tongues of cold surface water.  A second set of players is the continental
monsoons.  The nature of the interaction of these two sets of players is
strongly influenced by distribution of land-sea distribution and the
distribution of mountains in the IAI countries.

  Research into the interaction of the ITCZ/cold tongue complex
and the continental monsoons offer numerous opportunities for IAI
scientists.  Both oceanographic and meteorological studies are needed to
document and understand the seasonal cycle and interannual variability
of the ITCZs/cold tongues.  For the oceanographers there is also the need
to document the variability of conditions along the coasts of individual
IAI countries.  An important aspect of these studies should be to
understand the role of the mountain ranges including the Andes and the
mountains of central America in producing the observed climate needs to
be elucidated.

  Both the oceanographic and meteorological studies need to
examine climate and climate variability from both the regional and local
perspective.  The seasonal cycle in the IAI countries described above as
well as the ENSO and northeast Brazilian precipitation variability  (Figs. 1
and 3) have characteristic spatial scales that are larger than any one
country.  This feature of both oceanic and atmospheric climate variability
needs to be embraced by researchers, and to lead them to share data
with neighboring countries and to possibly organize joint research
projects.  At the same time, much of what is experienced locally as
climate is strongly influenced by local features in the topography or land-
sea distribution.  An example of this is the mesoscale ocean variability in
the Pacific Ocean off of Central America, which owes its existence to both
the basin scale wind field and to the small scale gap winds associated
with the Central American mountains.  The ensemble effect of the
mesoscale eddies in the ocean is believed to contribute significantly to
the ocean climate and to influence the local fish stocks.  The distribution
of the topography and the land-sea distribution also gives rise to
significant local variations in precipitation and surface temperatures,
much of which is poorly understood.

  Time series of the climatic variables, of at least 10 years in
length, need to be obtained and organized for each country.  For each of
the IAI countries the existence of significant mountain ranges and the
proximity of the oceans gives rise to a wide variety of climates, from
temperature high plains to rain forests to deserts.  A sufficient number of
time series needs to be established to document these different climates.
The time series then need to be gridded, and simple maps produced to
document the seasonal cycle within each region of the IAI domain.  For
oceanographic studies, repeated oceanographic sections need to be taken
and archived to permit the documentation of the spatial structure of
seasonal and interannual variability.

  As precipitation is the primary climate variable for the IAI
countries, a useful first step is for the IAI to focus on the gathering and
gridding of precipitation data on both the regional and the IAI-wide
level.  Three data sets could be constructed.  The first data set should
strive to include time series of 30 years in length, and grid them at a
spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude.  Efforts should be
funded by the IAI to find time series that are not presently accessible for
climate research.  This data set could be gathered regionally, and then
merged into a single data set for the entire IAI region.  A second data set
should contain the longest time series available for individual stations,
and will be used for studies of interdecadal climate variability.  The third
data set should comprise high resolution (approximately 10 km) satellite
observations of cloud top temperatures.  All of these data sets should be
made available free-of-charge on the Internet to all IAI researchers.

(2) Empirical Studies to Develop Predictive Knowledge of the Influence of
Climate Variability on Social and Economic Activities of IAI Countries

  Studies should be initiated to document the relationship
between the key climatic variables described above and the social and
economic conditions in the different IAI countries.  An example would be
to document the relationship between historical year to year fluctuations
in precipitation amounts (or mean surface temperatures) and crop yield.
Similarly, the outbreak of various diseases could be related to variations
in precipitation and surface temperature.  Such studies are needed to
elucidate the linkages between the climate variability and the social or
economic activities in a country.  All aspects of these studies could only
be effectively carried out by local researchers in the IAI countries.

  An example of how climate forecasts have successfully
influenced economic activity exists in northern Peru.  Precipitation
forecasts made there some four months in advance of the rainy season in
the Andes have brought economic gain by allowing farmers to choose
between the planting rice or cotton.  Forecasting now has their
enthusiastic support.

B.Assessment and Application

  A protocol for applying information about climate variability
involves three basic steps:
(1) Create a forecast.
(2) Interpret the forecast.
(3) Develop a constituency that can use it.

  The users of data and data products must be identified.  Two
possibilities are policy makers and decision makers. In North America the
decision makers are often the individual business entities, be they
farmers, industrialists, or commercial enterprises. In Latin America the
decision makers tend to be the government, or national agencies such as
energy agencies, or government-subsidized enterprises such as banks
that make loans to farmers and industries, although this is not
consistently the case.

In Costa Rica, for example, the users, in order, tend to be:
(1) Agriculture
(2) Forestry
(3) Education (universities, graduate students)
(4) Government (which requests information but sometimes is  unable to
use it advantageously because it has no agency to assimilate the data and
determine the best application)

  In Mexico, individual fishermen and companies show interest;
Although government makes many agricultural decisions, market
pressures force decisions in fishing.  Within government, the Ministry of
=46isheries and the Meteorological Service exhibit most awareness.

  Based on discussions about the two cases above, participants
concluded that there is a need to create awareness of climate information
and forecasts at the levels of both the government and the general public.
It was recognized that false expectations can be created, especially among
political entities.  For that reason, the potential economic benefits should
be carefully elucidated  in understandable language, and extreme events,
such as a coming drought, should be highlighted.  Positive case studies
should be pointed out, such as the system in Brazil where farm
production has been maintained in the face of extreme climate
variability, due to accurate forecasting.  Workshops should be held for
the news media, so they can learn what is possible and get the message
out to the general public and the decision makers.

  But scientists themselves need more information about the
needs that potential users might have for climate information.  They
know somewhat vaguely that there are "agricultural needs," and
"tourism industry needs," but not specifically what those needs might be.
It was recognized that some group must interface with potential users so
that information can be delivered in an understandable way.  It was
suggested that a panel might be formed to design the means for
improving communication between scientists and potential users.  Within
each country, non-governmental offices might be established for the
purpose of bridging the gap between science and users.

C. Data Collection and Management

  As mentioned earlier, the nations of the Americas are at
different stages of technological development, which leaves the
hemisphere with widely divergent means of collecting data and
communicating information.  It was felt that the IAI might be
instrumental in the encouragement and implementation of commonly
used hardware throughout the region.  A centralized data clearinghouse
that collects all the data and distributes it should be established.  Critic=
al
to the information-sharing system is the region-wide establishment of
Internet so that any scientist can ask colleagues throughout the Americas,
"Where is the information that I need?"

   A vast amount of data is already available at NCAR and other
facilities, but it needs updating. This could be accomplished by enlisting
the help of the Latin American countries.  Monthly climatic surface and
upper air data are already archived at Oak Ridge and elsewhere, but they
are significantly incomplete.  Some valuable long-time information exists,
from in situ observations and paleoclimate time series.   Generally,
improvement of historical data should be a high priority.

  Recently developed satellite products will yield new insights
into the workings and variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate
system.  For the oceanographers, satellite measurements will provide
estimates of sea surface temperature and many of the components of the
surface fluxes (surface winds, specific humidity, cloud type and amount,
precipitation, etc.) with a spatial resolution unobtainable with ship-
ofopportunity or buoy measurements.  In addition, estimates of ocean
photosynthesis will provide insights into the role of upwelling in ocean
dynamics.  For the meteorologists, satellite estimates of precipitation and
surface temperature can be used along with in situ measurements to
document and understand both the regional and local scale features of
the climate in the IAI countries.  Estimates of photosynthesis over land
will enable scientists to document the variability and interaction of the
flora with the atmospheric circulations.

Type of Data Needed

  The following recommendations were made with the basic
assumption that recommendations from the IAI workshops will be
implemented, and that hardware and communications systems will be
available.  Sources of data, and the extent of completion, are indicated:=09

(1) It is recommended that the following data be assembled and
completed and placed in electronic files:

Climate/Surface:  Existing data repositories (e.g., at NCAR,
Oakridge/CDIAC, NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated
and/or supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally
the national meteorological services) through a process of
intercomparison of inventories. Priority should be given to obtaining
missing monthly mean data from 1960 through the present, and adding
data from first order WMO stations not presently found in these data
bases.

Altitude:  Existing data repositories (e.g., at NCAR,  Oakridge/CDIAC,
NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated and/or
supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally the
national meteorological services) through a process of inter-comparison
of inventories.  Priority should be given to monthly median data since
1960 through 1993, a record that may be 85% or more complete.

Hydrological:  Existing data repositories (e.g.,  at NCAR, Oakridge/CDIAC,
NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated and/or
supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally the
national meteorological services) through a process of intercomparison of
inventories.  Priority should be given to monthly median data since 1960
through 1993, a record that may be 85% or more complete.

Oceanic Data:  The climatically applicable archives are already fairly
complete and are either already widely available over Internet, or
becoming so. Examples of compilations and reprocessed data include:  sea
surface temperature/SST (COADS, complete); historical bathythermo
graphic (BT,XBT) profiles (available from NODC, TAO buoys; drifting buoys
(SST, velocity); and satellite products. However, each of these data bases,
and others should be examined and improved if necessary, in respect of
two criteria:  (1) Can they be improved by incorporating data from Latin
America (previously unavailable), as in the case of non-transmitted XBTs
taken by the various countries?; and (2) Can the availability of these data
bases to Latin American scientists through electronic access, CD-ROMs,
etc., be improved?

Renewable Marine Resources: Registry of selected plankton and
chlorophyll series from fixed stations and some cruising in repeated
sections (CIOH, INOCAR, INP, IMARPE, IFOP).  Fisheries statistics of pelagic
and demersal debarkations (INP, IMARPE, IFOP).  Some selected series of
indicating species (CIOH, INOCAR, INP, IMARPE, IFOP, U. Valparaiso).
Inventories should be made on the existing species and their condition,
with recommendations issued for the most useful data selection.
(2) It is also recommended that those series with the greatest  extension
in time be identified, and placed in an easily accessible electronic file.
(3) That the IAI coordinate with U.S. and European agencies to obtain a
free anonymous access (or via electronic request) for hemispheric
researchers to be able to use existing large scale files. Such access is now
available for COADS, OLR, FSU winds, and many more data sets.
(4) In the case of meteorological/climatological and altitude data, lesser
duration station data should be obtained also, wherever these are almost
complete from 1980 to the present, to improve geographical coverage in
the last decade or two for which satellite and model-based products exist.
(5) Ways should be found to eliminate excessive extraction costs which
currently exist for certain selected data.

Specific Recommendations on Acquiring Data

  The participants recognize that many meteorological and
hydrological services may be reluctant to accept requests for
climatological data--for what they may consider legitimate reasons.  In
view of the im-portance of completing the hemispheric file within a
minimum amount of time, the following recommendations were made:

* Request a reduced amount of data, only what is necessary to complete
the large files already accessible. This will simplify access and guarantee
a uniformity in the formats. It is important to emphasize that this should
not be a "fishing expedition" to indiscriminately obtain all existing data
from Latin American archives, rather, only as needed from the more
reliable first-order stations, so as to improve the present temporal and
spatial coverage of the existing large scale repositories.
* Data requests should be channeled through IAI to the environmental
services of signatory nations, emphasizing the high priority that this task
holds for the success of IAI, as well as the counterpart benefits expected
for contributors. Ideally, the participation of national environmental
services in IAI should be formalized, such that compliance with such data
requests becomes part of their missions.
* In order to minimize the amount of data to be requested and be very
precise in its specification, a data inventory should be requested from
each service so it can be compared with existing information in known
accessible files such as NCAR, CDIAC, etc., and a detailed selection be
made of data to be requested.
* Help in accelerating digitization should take place where needed, and
priorities should be suggested for this process.
*  Public recognition should be given to cooperative agencies, high-
lighting their participation in IAI and their efforts in the development of
forecasting technology.
* IAI should consult with those in each country who have good
 contacts in the respective services and who can identify key people
knowledgeable in the policies of each institution.
* IAI should ensure that equal access to data is available to all
 services outside their own countries on the basis of reciprocity at
hemispheric level.  If the access infrastructure is not adequate, IAI
should seek formulas for assistance (for example through the IAI/GEF
Project with counterpart resources) in order to meet the needs for
equipment and training.

What is the IAI Role?

   Participants discussed how the IAI can contribute to existing
observations and monitoring efforts in the region:

(1) Take a pro-active stance in defending observing systems in the face
of increasing fiscal pressures to cut costs worldwide (e.g., world weather
watch, omega navigation network required for upper-air
 observations, existing ocean observing systems, etc.)
(2)  Support those activities that at are difficult to support in research
programs or under operational programs.
(a) Support a basic observational network, including supporting the steps
necessary to identify the networks, parameters, stations, etc.
(b) Support data rescue and continuity efforts, which includes working
with nations to recognize incorporation into data bases, and developing a
payment-in-kind concept if required.
(3) Perhaps assume the role of a western hemisphere WMO in  defining a
minimum atmospheric observing network.
(4) Work to instill a partnership and sense of ownership  between the
sources of data (nations) and the users (scientific community).
(5) Develop products that instill a sense of pride and ownership in the
contributor.
=09
D. Modeling and Forecasting

  This field is in the early stages of development in the region,
and in some countries, non-existent.  Investment is needed in training
and education, with long-term effects in mind, looking for results at least
five years from now.  For training, a good model seems to be the one
developed by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New
York.  It also appears important to incorporate models from diverse parts
of the economy, to consider how sea surface temperature, rainfall, and
temperature, for example, affect industries such as fisheries and
manufacturing.

How Can Institutions Cooperate?

  Participation of governments, private institutions, and
universities will be necessary in developing and evaluating models
throughout the region.  As with data collection and management, the
most critical barrier to creation of models is the technological gap, i.e., =
the
hardware and software availability and the human resources.
The following suggestions were made for advancing modeling and
forecasting:

(1) Identify the existing models and those being developed.
(2) Send a questionnaire to all institutions known to be working on a
model.
(3) Develop a program for scientific exchange within the Americas to
improve understanding of the performance of models.
(4) Identify regional centers able to gather scientists who could be
working on validation of models.
(5) Capability for windows is suggested for data bases, which would allow
accessing of data from specific regions to reduce the transfer of large
volumes of data could be reduced (since most models take a global view).
(6) Create interest among scientists from other regional programs in  the
program being established in the Americas.
(7) Application centers should develop a mailing list that would include
all the summaries and validation of models.  This could be used as a
feedback to see if models are working satisfactorily.
(8) Adopt a standardized form of collecting, managing, and disseminating
data to enhance the use of data.


E. Human Dimensions

  The best data and forecasts will be of little use if the
information is not passed on to decision makers and the general public.
Participants recognized the difficulties of communication between the
scientific and non-scientific worlds.  Social scientists present at the
workshop offered the following suggestions to improve this
communication:

(1)  Prepare an annotated bibliography focusing on ENSO  impacts
and forecast application.  This could be compiled by country and by
sector, particularly for those institutions and organizations in the main
sectors that are affected.
(2) Compile a list of people, institutions, and organizations concerned with
the socio-economic impacts and the application of ENSO forecasts and
events.
(3) Prepare a slide presentation with accompanying text to enable
researchers and applications people to explain in user-friendly
 terms about ENSO, its impacts, and efforts to lower impacts.  (A
Spanish-language translation of the booklet "Report to the Nation," which
explains ENSO events, is underway by NOAA's Office of Global Programs)
(4)  Hold informal planning meetings with those aware of ENSO
 forecasts, impacts, and applications, to determine who they are,
what they need, generally what information is essential for their
activities.  This might include sectors such as health, fisheries,  water,
energy, agriculture, tourist, public safety, and industry.
(5) In all dealings with the public, include a few successful cases of ENSO
forecasting and the positive response that followed.  The best example is
probably the Peru program.

Possible Contributions by IAI

  The IAI should encourage and support regional and national
workshops on the societal impacts of ENSO, with interaction between
social scientists, decision makers, and media representatives.  Building a
relationship with the media was considered especially important.  The
media, it was mentioned, will not work for  science, but it will work with
science.  If convinced of the interest society should have in ENSO, it will
report information about that subject adequately.  Private industry also
should be brought into collaboration, as it can supply information not
published in scientific journals.  Industry often worries that release of
information might compromise its economic position, so companies need
to be convinced that this is not necessarily the case and that cooperation
will benefit society in general and ultimately, them as well.








VI. REFERENCES

Barnett, T. P., 1983:  Interaction of the Monsoon and the Pacific Trade
Wind System at Interannual  Time Scales.  Part I:  the Equatorial Zone.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 111,756-773.

Barnett, T.P. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legle=
r,
1988:  On the Prediction of the El Ni=F1o of 1986-1987.  Science, 241-192-
196.

Bjerknes, J., 1966:  A Possible Response of Atmospheric Hadley Cell to
Equatorial Anomalies of Ocean Temperature.  Tellus, 18,820-829.

Bjerknes, J., 1967:  Atmospheric Teleconnections from the Equatorial
Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172.

Canby, T. Y., 1984:  El Ni=F1o III Wind. National Geographic, 165(2), 144-
183.

Cane, M.A., S.E. Zebiak and S.C. Dolan, 1986:  Experimental Forecast of El
Ni=F1o.  Nature, 32127-832.

Glantz, M. H., 1984:  Floods, Fires, and Famine:  Is El Ni=F1o to Blame?
Oceanus, 27, 14-20.

Hayes, S. P., L. J. Mangum, J. Picaut, A. Sumi, and K. Takeuchi, 1991:
TOGA-TAO:  A Moored Array for the Real-Time Measurements in Tropical
Pacific.  Ocean.Bull.Amer.Met.Soc., 72(3), 339-347.

Horel, J. D. and J . M. Wallace, 1981:  Planetary-Scale Atmospheric
Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation.  Mon.Wea. Rev.,
109, 813-829.

IGBP-Report from the IGBP Regional Meeting for South America.  S=E3o Jos=E9
dos Campos, SP, Brazil, 5-9 March 1990.  Report No. 16.

IGBP-Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training  (START).
Bellagio, 3-7 December 1990.  Report No. 15.

Kousky, V. E., M. T. Kayano, and I.F.A. Cavalcanti, 1984:  A Review of the
Southern Oscillation: Ooceanic-Atmospheric Circulation Changes and
Related Rainfall Anomalies. Tellus, 36A, 490-504.

Kerr, R. A. 1992:  A Successful Forecast of An El Ni=F1o Winter.  Science,
155, 24 January 1992, 402.

Lagos, P., and J. Buizer, 1992:  El Ni=F1o and Peru:  A Nation's Response to
Interannual Climate Variability.  In:  Natural and Technological Disasters:
Causes, Effects, and Preventive Measures.  Pennsylvania Academy of
Sciences.

Lau, K. M. and P. H. Chen, 1986:The 40-50 Day Oscillation and the El
Ni=F1o/Southern Oscillation: a New  Perspective. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 533-
534.

Miller, M. J., A. C. M. Beljaars, and T. N. Palmer, 1992:  The Sensitivity o=
f
the ECMWF Model to Parameterization of Evaporation from the Tropical
Oceans.  J. Climate, 5, 418-434.

Philander, G.,1989:  EL Ni=F1o and La Ni=F1a.  American Scientist, 451-459.

Rasmusson, E. M. and T. H. Carpenter, 1982:  Variations in Tropical Sea
Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the
Southern Oscillation/El Ni=F1o.  Mon. Wea. Rev., 110,354-384.

Ropelewski, C. F. and M. S. Halpert, 1987:  Global and Regional Scale
Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Ni=F1o/Southern Oscillation.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 115,1606-1626.

Smith, N. R. and G.  D. Hess, 1993:  A Comparison of Vertical Eddy Mixing
for Equatorial Ocean Models.   J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23,1823-1830.

Stockdale, T., D. Anderson, M. Davey, P. Delecluse, A. Kattenberg,  Y.
Kitamura,  M. Latif, and T. Yamagata, 1993:  Intercomparison of Tropical
Ocean Models.  World Climate Research Program Report WCRP-79,
Geneva, Switzerland, 43pp.

Yasunari, T., 1990:Impact of Indian Monsoon on the Coupled
Atmosphere/Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific.  Meteorol. Atmos.
Phys., 44,29-41.







APPENDIX 1

IAI INITIAL SCIENTIFIC THEMES


* The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems;

* High Latitude Processes;

* Ocean/Land/Atmosphere Interactions in the Inter-tropical Americas;

* Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles;

* ENSO and Interannual Climate Variability;

* The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems;

* The Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity.



APPENDIX 2

ACRONYMS


IAI    Inter-American Institute for Global Change     Research
=09
GNP    Gross National Product

SST     Sea Surface Temperature

NOAA     National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NOAA/OGP   NOAA/Office of Global Programs

TOGA     Tropical Oceans--Global Atmosphere Program

ERS-1     European Remote Sensing Satellite

TOPEX/POSEIDON   Topographic Experiment/Poseidon

NMC     National Meteorologic Center

IRI     International Research Institute

CRICYT     Centro Regional de Investigaciones Cient=EDficas y     Tecnol=F3g=
icas

ITCZ     Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

WCRP     World Climate Research Program

WMO     World Meteorological Organization

ICSU     International Council of Scientific Unions

START      System for Analysis Research and Training

ERFEN     Regional Group for Study of ENSO

NCAR    National Center for Atmospheric Research

Oakridge/CDIAC   Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center

NOAA/NCDC    NOAA/National Climatic Data Center

TSM     Temperatura Superficial del  Mar

COADS     Comprehensive Ocean and Atmospheric Data Set

NMC/Reynolds   National Meteorologic Center/Reynolds

NMM     Nivel Medio del Mar

PSML     Pacific Mean Sea Level

BT/XBT     Bathy Termograph/Expandable Bathy Termograph

AOML     Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological     Laboratory

NODC     National Oceanic Data Center

TAO      Tropical Atmospheric Ocean Array

CIOH     Comisi=F3n Intergubernamental Oceanogr=E1fica e     Hidrogr=E1fica

INOCAR     Instituto Oceanogr=E1fico de la Armada (Ecuador)

INP     Instituto Nacional de Pesca

IMARPE    Instituto del Mar del Per=FA

IFOP     Instituto de Fomento Pesquero

=46SU     Florida State University

EPOCS    Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies





APPENDIX 3

WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS

Julio Hordig=09
Servicio Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09
25 DE MAYO 658, 1002 Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA=09
Tel. (54 1) 312 4481=09
=46ax (54 1) 311 3968  =09

Adriana Elsa Fern=E1ndez=09
Universidad de Buenos Aires=09
Dpto. de Ciencias de la Atm=F3sfera=09
2do. Pabell=F3n, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA=09
Tel. (54 1) 782 6528
=46ax (54 1) 788 3572
  =09
Mario N. Nu=F1ez=09
Secretar=EDa  de Ciencia y Tecnolog=EDa=09
Depart. de Meteorolog=EDa, Universidad de Buenos Aires=09
Pabell=F3n II, Piso 2 - Ciudad Universitaria
Buenos Aires 1428
ARGENTINA=09
Tel.(54 1) 788 3572=09
=46ax (54 1) 788 3572=09
mnunez@cima.edu.ar=09

Elvira Gentile=09
IAI Newsletter=09
Av. Montes de Oca 2124, 1271 Buenos Aires
ARGENTINA=09
Tel. (54 1) 217 576
=46ax (54 1) 303 2299
@compuserve.com=09
Carlos Diaz Escobar=09
Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa y Hidrolog=EDa=09
Edificio "La Urbana", 6o. Piso=09
Avda. Camacho No. 1485, La Paz=09
BOLIVIA =09
Tel. (591 2) 392 413=09

Caarem Studzinski=09
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) CPTED-CP 515
12221 Sao Jose dos Campos-SP =09
BRAZIL=09
Tel. (55 123) 418 977, ext. 267=09
=46ax (55 123) 411 876=09
caarem@cptec.inpe.br =09

Carlos Repelli=09
=46UNCEME=09
Av. Bezerra de Menezes, 1900=09
=46ortaleza, Ceara 60325 =09
BRAZIL=09
Tel. (55 85) 281 1011 ext.230=09
=46ax (55 85) 281 1165=09
repelli@zeus.funceme.br=09

Mary Kayano
Insituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)/CPTEC
Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, CP 515
Jardim da Granja
12221 Sao Jose dos Campos, SP
BRAZIL
Tel. (55 123) 418 977 ext. 625
=46ax (55 123) 411 876
mary@itid.inpe.br=09
=09
Madhav Khandekar
Environment Canada=09
4905 Duferin St. Downsdiew, Ontario
CANADA=09
Tel.(416) 739 4913=09
=46ax (416) 739 4221  =09

Howard J. Freeland=09
Department of Fisheries and Oceans=09
Institute of Ocean Sciences=09
P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C. V8Z 4B2=09
CANADA=09
Tel. (604) 363 6580
=46ax (604) 363 6746
hjfreeland@ios.bc.ca

Sergio Avaria=09
Instituto de Oceanolog=EDa - Universidad de Valparaiso=09
Casilla 13-D Vi=F1a del Mar =09
CHILE =09
Tel. (56 32) 833 214

Patricio Aceituno=09
Universidad de Chile=09
=46acultas de Ciencias y Matem=E1ticas=09
Departamento de Geolog=EDa y Geof=EDsica
Blanco Encalada, 2085 - Santiago
CHILE=09
Tel. (56 2) 696 8790=09
=46ax (56 2) 671 2799=09
paceitun@uchcecvm.cec.uchile.cl=09

Juan Quintana=09
Direcci=F3n Meteorol=F3gica de Chile=09
Casilla 717, Santiago =09
CHILE=09
Tel. (56 2) 601 9001=09
=46ax: (56 2) 601 9590   =09

Patricia Ramirez=09
Instituto Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09
Apartado 7 3350, San Jos=E9 1000
COSTA  RICA=09
Tel.(506) 222 467=09
=46ax (506) 231 837=09

Carlos Lugo
Instituto Nacional de Metereolog=EDa e Hidrolog=EDa=09
Inaquito 923 y Corea Quito
ECUADOR=09
Tel. (593 2) 468 327=09
=46ax (593 2) 433 934

Jorge Calder=F3n=09
CINAIM=09
Kilometro 30 1/2 Via Perimetral - Guayaquil=09
ECUADOR=09
Tel. (59 34) 354 587=09
=46ax (59 34) 269 456=09
cenaim@espol.edu.ec =09

Timothy Baumgartner=09
CICESE=09
Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km 107=09
Apdo. Postal 2732 Ensenada, Baja California=09
MEXICO=09
Tel. (619) 534 2171=09
=46ax (1) (619) 534 7641=09
tbaumgartner@cicese.mx=09

Armando Trasvi=F1a=09
CICESE=09
Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km. 107, Ensenada, B.C.=09
MEXICO=09
Tel.(52 617) 442 00=09
=46ax (52 617) 451 56=09
trasvi@cicese.mx  =09



Victor Maga=F1a=09
Instituto de Ciencias de la Atm=F3sfera (UNAM)
Mexico, D.F.
MEXICO=09
Tel. (525) 622 4057
=46ax (525) 616 0789=09
victor@belenos.atmosfcu.unam.mx =09

Julio Sheinbaum=09
CICESE=09
Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km. 107=09
Ensenada, Baja California =09
MEXICO=09
Tel. (52 617) 451 54=09
=46ax (52 617) 451 56=09
julios@cicese.mx=09

Benjamin Grassi=09
Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa e Hidrolog=EDa=09
Av. Mariscal Lopez 1146, 4
PARAGUAY=09
Tel. (595 21) 22139=09
=46ax (595 21) 22139   =09

Angel Cornejo=09
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09
Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real
La Molina, Lima 100=09
PERU=09
Tel. (51 14) 752 996=09
=46ax (51 14) 370 258=09
acornejo@iris.igp.gob.pe =09

Eduardo Franco=09
Intermediate Technology Development Group - ITDG=09
Av. JorgeCh=E1vez 275, Miraflores,
Lima 18, Casilla 18-0620 =09
PERU=09
Tel. (51 14) 475 127=09
=46ax (51 14) 466 621=09
eduardof@itdg.org.pe =09

Andrew Maskey=09
Intermediate Technology Development Group - ITDG=09
Av. Jorge Chavez 275, Miraflores, Lima 18,
Casilla 18-0620 =09
PERU=09
Tel. (51 14) 475 127=09
=46ax (51 14) 466 621  =09

Pablo Lagos=09
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA =09
Apartado 3747, Lima 100=09
PERU=09
Tel. (51 14)  752 996=09
=46ax (51 14) 370 258=09
plagos@gateway.omnet.com =09

Carlos Eduardo Ere=F1o=09
Agregado Naval a la Embajada Argentina=09
Av. Pardo y Aliaga,  Piso 12, San Isidro, Lima=09
PERU
Tel. (541) 217 576
=46ax (541) 303 2299  =09
  =09
Eleodoro Aquize Jaen=09
Proyecto Epecial Binacional "Lago Titicaca" (PELT)=09
Av. La Torre 346, Puno =09
PERU    =09

Jorge Benavides=09
Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores=09
Jr. Lampa, 545, Lima 1 =09
PERU    =09


Jorge Bravo=09
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09
Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real
La Molina, Lima
PERU  =09
jbravo@igpcam.pe =09

Carlos Bustios=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805, Ofic. 411=09
Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Sebastian Cajja Maguina=09
Instituto Nacional de Investigaci=F3n de Transporte (INAIT)=09
G. Paredes 258, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Amelia Diaz=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805, 4to. Piso=09
Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Walter Elliot=09
IMARPE=09
Jr. Capac Llauto 538=09
Z=E1rate, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Manuel Flores Palomino=09
IMARPE=09
Jr. Capac Llauto 538=09
Z=E1rate, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Alfonso Garc=EDa Pe=F1a=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805=09
Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Mar=EDa del Carmen Grados Quispe=09
IMARPE =09
Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n=09
Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09

Eduardo G=F3mez Cornejo=09
Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina=09
Av. La Universidad s/n=09
Apartado 456, La Molina, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Rosario Horn=09
United Nations Development Programme=09
Canaval y Moreyra 590=09
San Isidro, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Ena Jaimes E.=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805=09
Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Romulo Jord=E1n=09
IMARPE=09
Esq. Gral Gamarra y Gral Valle s/n=09
Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09





Guillerno Johnson=09
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09
Calle Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real=09
La Molina, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Gustavo Laos =09
DHN=09
Gamarra 500=09
Chucuito, Callao =09
PERU    =09

Jaime Mendo=09
Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina=09
=46aculdad de Pesqueria=09
Av. La Universidad s/n=09
La Molina, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Miguel Niquen C.=09
IMARPE=09
Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n=09
Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09

Jorge Otiniano R.=09
DHN=09
Gamarra 500=09
Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09

Luis Pizarro P.=09
IMARPE=09
Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gra. Valle s/n=09
Apartado 22, Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09


Wilfredo Pelayo=09
Oficina de Informaci=F3n Agr=E1ria=09
Ministerio de Agricultura=09
Jr. Pezuela s/n, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Juan Quispe A.=09
DHNM,
Gamarra 500=09
Chucuito, Callao=09
PERU    =09

Walter S=E1nchez=09
Clima Consult=09
Santa Rosa 134=09
Urb. Santa Felicia=09
Lima 12=09
PERU    =09

Jos=E9 Silva=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805=09
Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09
PERU    =09

Miriam Tamayo=09
DHNM=09
Gamarra 500, Chucuito, Callao =09
PERU    =09

Manuel Uccelletti=09
CPPS=09
Apartado Postal 2397, Lima 1 =09
PERU    =09

Manuel Valverde=09
SENAMHI=09
Jr. Cahuide 805=09
Apartado 1308=09
Jesus Maria, Lima
PERU  =09
valverde@senamh.gob.pe =09

Hector Soldi=09
Direcci=F3n de Hidrograf=EDa y Navegaci=F3n=09
Gamarra 500, Chucuito Callao=09
PERU=09
Tel. (51 14) 297 564=09
=46ax (51 14) 652 995=09
omnet toga.peru =09

Ronald Woodman=09
Radio Observatorio de Jicamarca=09
Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09
Ap. 13-0207, Lima 13=09
PERU    =09

Naoto Yamamoto=09
Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo=09
Canaval y Moreyra 590=09
San Isidro, Lima =09
PERU    =09

Jorge Zuzunaga=09
Ministerio de Pesquer=EDa=09
Calle 1 Oest, Urb. Corpac, Lima=09
PERU   =09

Carlos Mas
Edificio Plaza Independencia, Oficina 34,
Plaza Independencia, 776
Montevideo, CP 11200
URUGUAY =09
Tel. (598 2) 922 416=09
cmas@iniaee.org.uy=09

Alvaro Diaz
Grupo de Estudio de la Dinamica de los Oceanos y la Atmosfera Facultad
de Ingenieria Universidad de la Republica
URUGUAY=09
Tel. (598 2) 715 278=09
=46ax (598 2) 715 446=09
adiaz@fing.edu.uy

Guillermo Ramis=09
Direcci=F3n Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa=09
Casilla de Correo 64, Montevideo
URUGUAY=09
Tel. (598 2) 405 655
=46ax (598 2) 497 391  =09

David Enfield=09
NOAA/ AOML=09
4301 Rickenbacker Cswy =09
Miami,  FL  33149=09
USA=09
Tel. (305) 361 4351=09
=46ax (305) 361 4449=09
enfield@ocean.aoml.erl.gov =09

Paul Epstein=09
Harvard Medical School
Cambridge Hospital 1493 Cambridge Street=09
Cambridge, MA 02139
USA=09
Tel. (617) 498 1032
=46ax (617) 498 1671=09
pepstein@igc.org =09

Michael Glantz=09
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/ESIG
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group=09
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado  80307-3000=09
USA=09
Tel. (303) 497 8119=09
=46ax (303) 497 8125
glantz@ncar.ucar.edu =09

Stephen Piotrowicz=09
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
1315 East-West Hwy=09
SSMC-3 11th Floor OAR/PDC=09
Silver Spring, MD  20910=09
USA=09
Tel. (301) 713 2465=09
=46ax (301) 713 0666=09
spiotrowicz@red.noaa.gov =09

Mark Cane
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory=09
Columbia University=09
Route 9W Palisades, NY  10964=09
USA=09
Tel. (914) 365 8344=09
=46ax (914) 365 0718=09
mcane@ldgo.columbia.edu=09

Rodrigo Nu=F1ez=09
The Florida State University=09
COAPS 020 Love Building
Tallahassee, FL 32306-3041=09
USA=09
Tel. (904) 644 6532=09
=46ax (904) 644 4581=09
nunez@coaps.fsu.edu  =09

Todd Mitchell=09
University of Washington=09
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences AK-40=09
Seattle, WA=09
USA=09
Tel. (206) 685 8438=09
=46ax (206) 685 3397
mitchell@atmos.washington.edu =09

James L. Buizer=09
NOAA Office of Global Programs=09
1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225=09
Silver Spring MD  20910=09
USA=09
Tel. (301) 427 2089
=46ax (301) 427 2082=09
buizer@ogp.noaa.gov

James O'Brien=09
Mesoscale Air-Sea Interaction Group=09
B-174 020 Love Building=09
The Florida State University=09
Tallahassee, FLA=09
USA=09
Tel. (904) 644 4581=09
=46ax (904) 644 4841=09
obrien@masig.fsu.edu=09

Scott Stefanski=09
Climate Institute=09
324 4th Street, N.E. =09
Washington, D.C. 20002-5821 =09
USA=09
Tel. (202) 547 0104=09
=46ax (202) 547 0111=09
climateinst@igc.apc.org =09

Sondra Holmes=09
NOAA Office of Global Programs=09
1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1225=09
Silver Spring, MD 20910 =09
USA=09
Tel. (301) 427 2089=09
=46ax (301) 427 2082=09
Noel Grove =09
IAI Editor
2114 St. Louis Rd.
Middleburg, VA 22117 =09
USA=09
Tel. (703) 687 5052
=46ax (703) 687 5052   =09

Rub=E9n Lara =09
IAI Office of the Executive Scientist=09
1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1201=09
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Tel. (301) 589 5747=09
=46ax (301) 589 5711=09
lara@ogp.noaa.gov  =09

Guillermo Berri=09
IRICP Applications and Training Pilot Project=09
IRICP House-Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory=09
Columbia University PoBox 1000/Rt 9W/IRICP House (GHB)=09
Palisades, N.Y. 10964-8000
USA=09
Tel. (914) 365 8765=09
=46ax (914) 365 8764=09
berri@exigente.ldgo.columbia.edu =09