PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2005
 

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13-17 2005
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY... AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE OVEALL MEAN PATTERN OF
A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA... RIDGING OVER THE WEST... A TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE MODELS DIFFER IN HOW THEY ARRIVE AT THE MEAN RESULT... WITH THE
06Z GFS TAKING THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON THE 13TH AND  
SWIFTLY KICKING IT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
A SECOND TROUGH THAT DIGS DEEPER AND FORMS A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH
OVER THE EAST.  LAST NIGHTS CANADIAN GEM SHOWS A SINGLE TROUGH
EVOLVING INTO A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE 15TH. 
THE ECMWF TAKES THE TWO TROUGH APPROACH.  AT ANY RATE...
REGARDLESS OF THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS... IT LOOKS LIKE A WET PERIOD
FOR THE EAST COAST AGAIN AND DRY FOR THE WEST AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
REGION... AS WELL AS WESTERN ALASKA.  THE MODELS SHOW VERY INTERESTING
DEVELOPMENTS AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE EAST COAST... WITH THE ECMWF AND
THE CANADIAN IMPLYING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST AT 
SOME POINT THIS PERIOD WHILE THE 06Z GFS MAKES DO WITH A STRONG
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST BY THE 16TH.  REGARDLESS OF 
THE CAUSE... ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
OTHER PARTS OF THE EAST COAST.   
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 85 PERCENT OF LAST 
NIGHTS GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN AND 15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAYS ECMWF RUN.

MODEL(S) OF THE DAY:  GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE BLEND... ANALOGS FROM THE BLEND... AND THE 850HPA ANOMALIES
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE.    

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE 06Z CALIBRATED 
CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE 
BEST ANALOGS FROM THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND.  DAILY RAINFALL OUTPUT
FROM LAST NIGHTS ECMWF RUN WAS ALSO CONSIDERED.
  
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21 2005

THE MEAN PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS PATTERN...
WITH THE WEAK TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RIDGE IN THE WEST.  THIS
RESULTS IN A FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 70 PERCENT OF THE GFS
SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS 06Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE TODAY IS AVERAGE TODAY ... 3 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE KLEIN
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLEND AND THE BIAS-ADJUSTED 2-M
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHTS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.   

THE 8 TO 14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE CALIBRATED
06Z GFS ENSEMBLE RUN AND 06Z OPERATIONAL RUN.
 
FORECASTER: D. LE COMTE
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
NOTES: 

OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE 
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE 
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS 
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS 
CHANGE.

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS. 

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR 
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN 
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE 
RELEASED ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 20TH.  







NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19630917 - 19711020 - 19821001 - 19690921 - 19951001
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19630917 - 19711020 - 19690921 - 19611010 - 19791020
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17, 2005
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    N    B     
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    N     
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    B     
N TEXAS     B    B     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    B     
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    B    N     
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   A    N     
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    A    N     
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    A     
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    A    A     
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A     
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A     
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A     
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    N    A     
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    N     
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N     
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N     
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    N    A     
 
 
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21, 2005
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    B     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N     
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B     
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     N    B     
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    B     
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   N    N     
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    B    N     
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    N    A     
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       A    A     
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A     
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A     
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N     
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N     
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N     
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    N     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$