AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003
CURRENTLY: CLOUDY WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. CIGS GENLLY
AROUND 3K AND 10K BUT LOWER CIGS TO 1K STRATOCU WITH LIGHT FOG UNDER
PATCHY RAIN. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S SE ALA TO MID 50S
PANHANDLE COAST. DEW POINTS LOW TO MID 50S. WINDS NW TO W 10 TO 15
MPH.
DISCUSSION: TIGHT UPR LOW CONTS TO MEANDER OVR S CAROLINA WITH
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND AND S TOWARDS CWFA. HOWEVER WITH LOCAL AREA
ON DRY/SUBSIDENCE SIDE...MOISTURE FIELD IS WEAK. THUS LOW MEANDERING
WITH VORT LOBE EXTENDING S RATHER THAN LIFTING AS PREV PROGGED
PROVIDG JUST ENUF LIFT TO MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES AND LINGERING RAIN
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREV FORECASTED. FIRST LOBE TO EXIT E SHORTLY BUT
MESO-ETA AND RUC HINT AT ANOTHER AND FINAL LOBE MOVING THRU DURING
PREDAWN HOURS. THEN...EXPECT LOW TO FINALLY MOVE NWD BY TOMORROW
MORNING SPREADING SOAKING RAINS INTO MID-ATLC AND THEN N ENGLAND
STATES. CLOSER TO HOME...THIS TRANLATES TO DECRG CLOUDS AND PRECIP
BY SUNRISE. WILL UPDATE TO CHANGE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND NIGHTTIME POPS
TO CLOUDY AND 20 PCT LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES EXCEPT M/CLOUDY AND 10
PCT PANHANDLE. TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE EXCEPT POSSIBLY SE ALA ALREADY
APPROACHING INHERITED LOW SO MAY TWEK DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
MARINE: WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION RAPIDLY FILTERING S AND ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS...EVENING BUOYS SHOW 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEARSHORE UP TO 20-25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AND 10-11 FOOT SEAS WELL OFFSHORE. THIS
MESHES WELL WITH INHERITED FORECAST SO EXPECT NO CHANGES. COLD AIR
ADVECTION FORECASTED TO DECR SOME BY SUNRISE SO WINDS.SEAS SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LOWER BUT SCA LOOKS GOOD INTO SATURDAY.
.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
$$
BLOCK
___________________________________________________________________
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
--SYNOPSIS--
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE GA/SC BORDER. A VORT LOBE IS ROTATING AROUND THE WRN QUAD AND
GENERATING SOME RAIN OVER N-CENTRAL GA AND AL. FARTHER UPSTREAM...
W/V IMAGES INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR WILMINGTON NC. WINDS OVER THE CWFA REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
--FORECAST--
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NRN ZONES DUE TO MENTIONED
VORT LOBE. AFTERWARDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING DRY AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS A SURFACE RIDGE TOWARDS OUR CWFA.
FIRE WEATHER...WE SHOULD SEE MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES
OVER FL ZONES FRIDAY...AND THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 FT WINDS
NEAR 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ASSUMING QUITE LOW GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
THAT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING REALIZED GIVEN THE WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
WELL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE CWFA.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...AS UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES E INTO THE
ERN USA...10/06Z GFS PUSHES REINFORCING FRONT S INTO THE CWFA AND
GENERATES SOME PRECIP. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT.
WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET...AS WE EXPECT A RATHER DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE DURING THIS TIME. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE CERTAINLY FREE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING E INTO THE
CWFA. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER WED AND THU OVER
WRN ZONES...WHERE GFS PROGS BETTER MOIST RETURN AND EVIDENCE OF A
BOUNDARY LIFTING N.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 043/074 046/078 0000
PFN 047/072 052/079 0000
DHN 044/072 049/077 2000
ABY 043/072 048/077 2000
VLD 045/073 047/079 0000
CTY 043/069 047/077 0000
.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
$$
TJT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
***********************************************************
948 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING
SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS DOWN AROUND -24 C. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL SC BY 00Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW ONE VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST FROM THE SSW WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING SWWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE
VORTEX ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. THE VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
HAS MOVED E AND S OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND
THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX SHOW A NEARLY
UNBROKEN DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 2 KFT. THE SURFACE
LOW ABOUT 60 MI SSE OF CAPE FEAR NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN, A 6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS STAYED UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT A FEW METAR SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GA. 12Z
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDING
SHOW THIS INVERSION HANGING IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY WITH MIXING
HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 25 KFT OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER LOOK TO GET NO
HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HOWEVER INSERT STATEMENT INTO THE ZONES
ADVISING CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO TEMPS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW DOWN
AROUND A HALF AN INCH, SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIP. LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS IN GA ZONES, CLOSER
TO COLD CORE LOW AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES.
MARINE: ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BRING SEAS FORECAST IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. BOTH BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NEARLY 11 FOOT SEAS,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH AND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH 20-25 KT
NW WINDS. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH SHOWS ENVELOP OF MAXIMUM SEAS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD
TONIGHT, DESPITE RELATIVELY CONSTANT WIND SPEEDS.
.TLH...
AL...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
GA...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
     CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
WOOL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
CURRENTLY: AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...
WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25. OFF SHORE WINDS ARE EVEN HIGHER...NW AT
25G35 WITH 10 FEET SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
RELAXING...MAY EVEN TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA BORDER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE EAST
COAST...OVER HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY...
SUSTAINING ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRAVELS. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO
MOVE NE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES SO. ONE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA
IS HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK OVER OUR AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WHIPLASH TO APPLY AND HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH TO BRING THE LOW...WITH THE DYNAMIC ETA BRINGING THE LOW ALL
THE BACK INTO GA...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH.
TYPICALLY WETTER FWC AND ETA STILL CALL FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS
THE BOARD THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER
THAN THE VERY DRY MAV. HAVE GONE WITH MODIFIED MAV. EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE.
THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL
DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE BLACKBERRY WINTER OF FOLKLORE. LOW
FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY
FOR FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS RUN.
AGAIN...THE TEMP FORECAST LEANS TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE.
MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY AT SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FINALLY GOING
BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY DROP
BELOW 40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED: LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATE CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS
WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TLH  59 43 72 45 78  2100
PFN  60 46 71 52 76  1100
DHN  54 44 70 49 77  2100
ABY  55 43 70 48 77  2100
VLD  57 46 70 48 78  2100
CTY  60 46 68 47 78  1100
$$
AFD
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003
--SYNOPSIS--
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE GA/SC BORDER. A VORT LOBE IS ROTATING AROUND THE WRN QUAD AND
GENERATING SOME RAIN OVER N-CENTRAL GA AND AL. FARTHER UPSTREAM...
W/V IMAGES INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR WILMINGTON NC. WINDS OVER THE CWFA REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
--FORECAST--
TONIGHT...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER NRN ZONES DUE TO MENTIONED
VORT LOBE. AFTERWARDS...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING DRY AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE E COAST AND THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT BRINGS A SURFACE RIDGE TOWARDS OUR CWFA.
FIRE WEATHER...WE SHOULD SEE MARGINAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH VALUES
OVER FL ZONES FRIDAY...AND THEY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 FT WINDS
NEAR 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ASSUMING QUITE LOW GUIDANCE DEWPOINT
THAT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME BEING REALIZED GIVEN THE WET GROUND FROM
RECENT RAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO SCA TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY
WELL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE CWFA.
EXTENDED (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...AS UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES E INTO THE
ERN USA...10/06Z GFS PUSHES REINFORCING FRONT S INTO THE CWFA AND
GENERATES SOME PRECIP. LATEST GFS SUGGESTS SOME PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS FRONT.
WILL NOT JUMP ON THIS YET...AS WE EXPECT A RATHER DRY LOWER
TROPOSPHERE DURING THIS TIME. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE CERTAINLY FREE OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WORKING E INTO THE
CWFA. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER WED AND THU OVER
WRN ZONES...WHERE GFS PROGS BETTER MOIST RETURN AND EVIDENCE OF A
BOUNDARY LIFTING N.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 043/074 046/078 0000
PFN 047/072 052/079 0000
DHN 044/072 049/077 2000
ABY 043/072 048/077 2000
VLD 045/073 047/079 0000
CTY 043/069 047/077 0000
.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
$$
TJT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
***********************************************************
948 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING
SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS DOWN AROUND -24 C. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL SC BY 00Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW ONE VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST FROM THE SSW WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING SWWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE
VORTEX ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. THE VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
HAS MOVED E AND S OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND
THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX SHOW A NEARLY
UNBROKEN DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 2 KFT. THE SURFACE
LOW ABOUT 60 MI SSE OF CAPE FEAR NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN, A 6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS STAYED UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT A FEW METAR SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GA. 12Z
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDING
SHOW THIS INVERSION HANGING IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY WITH MIXING
HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 25 KFT OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER LOOK TO GET NO
HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HOWEVER INSERT STATEMENT INTO THE ZONES
ADVISING CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO TEMPS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW DOWN
AROUND A HALF AN INCH, SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIP. LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS IN GA ZONES, CLOSER
TO COLD CORE LOW AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES.
MARINE: ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BRING SEAS FORECAST IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. BOTH BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NEARLY 11 FOOT SEAS,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH AND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH 20-25 KT
NW WINDS. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH SHOWS ENVELOP OF MAXIMUM SEAS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD
TONIGHT, DESPITE RELATIVELY CONSTANT WIND SPEEDS.
.TLH...
AL...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
GA...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
     CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
WOOL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
CURRENTLY: AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...
WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25. OFF SHORE WINDS ARE EVEN HIGHER...NW AT
25G35 WITH 10 FEET SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
RELAXING...MAY EVEN TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA BORDER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE EAST
COAST...OVER HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY...
SUSTAINING ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRAVELS. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO
MOVE NE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES SO. ONE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA
IS HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK OVER OUR AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WHIPLASH TO APPLY AND HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH TO BRING THE LOW...WITH THE DYNAMIC ETA BRINGING THE LOW ALL
THE BACK INTO GA...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH.
TYPICALLY WETTER FWC AND ETA STILL CALL FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS
THE BOARD THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER
THAN THE VERY DRY MAV. HAVE GONE WITH MODIFIED MAV. EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE.
THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL
DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE BLACKBERRY WINTER OF FOLKLORE. LOW
FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY
FOR FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS RUN.
AGAIN...THE TEMP FORECAST LEANS TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE.
MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY AT SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FINALLY GOING
BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY DROP
BELOW 40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED: LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATE CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS
WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TLH  59 43 72 45 78  2100
PFN  60 46 71 52 76  1100
DHN  54 44 70 49 77  2100
ABY  55 43 70 48 77  2100
VLD  57 46 70 48 78  2100
CTY  60 46 68 47 78  1100
$$
AFD
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER CENTRAL GA. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING
SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS DOWN AROUND -24 C. THIS LOW WILL MIGRATE ONLY
VERY SLOWLY EWD TO A POSITION OVER CENTRAL SC BY 00Z. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW ONE VORT MAX APPROACHING THE CAROLINA
COAST FROM THE SSW WITH ANOTHER PIVOTING SWWD ON THE W SIDE OF THE
VORTEX ALONG THE AL/MS BORDER. THE VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR
HAS MOVED E AND S OF THE AREA WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND
THE N AND W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. VISIBLE SATELLITE PIX SHOW A NEARLY
UNBROKEN DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH BASES BELOW 2 KFT. THE SURFACE
LOW ABOUT 60 MI SSE OF CAPE FEAR NC. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED IN THE PLAINS. IN BETWEEN, A 6 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS STAYED UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ARE CURRENTLY
GUSTING TO 20 MPH AT A FEW METAR SITES IN THE PANHANDLE AND GA. 12Z
KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS AN INVERSION AT ABOUT 850 MB. MODEL SOUNDING
SHOW THIS INVERSION HANGING IN THERE MOST OF THE DAY WITH MIXING
HEIGHTS ONLY AROUND 25 KFT OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH THIS INVERSION. WINDS IN THE MIXING LAYER LOOK TO GET NO
HIGHER THAN 25 KT. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TODAY. WILL HOWEVER INSERT STATEMENT INTO THE ZONES
ADVISING CAUTION ON AREA LAKES. CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A GOOD 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO TEMPS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PW DOWN
AROUND A HALF AN INCH, SO THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR PRECIP. LOOKING FOR MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWFA. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS IN GA ZONES, CLOSER
TO COLD CORE LOW AND STEEPEST LAPSE RATES.
MARINE: ISSUED AN EARLY UPDATE TO BRING SEAS FORECAST IN LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. BOTH BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING NEARLY 11 FOOT SEAS,
WHICH IS CLOSE TO WAVEWATCH AND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT WITH 20-25 KT
NW WINDS. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVEWATCH SHOWS ENVELOP OF MAXIMUM SEAS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SEWD
TONIGHT, DESPITE RELATIVELY CONSTANT WIND SPEEDS.
.TLH...
AL...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
GA...CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL MARINE ZONES.
     CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA LAKES.
WOOL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
*****************************************************************
235 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
CURRENTLY: AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS KEEPING THE SKIES CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S...NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN SAME TIME YESTERDAY...
WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25. OFF SHORE WINDS ARE EVEN HIGHER...NW AT
25G35 WITH 10 FEET SEAS. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF
RELAXING...MAY EVEN TIGHTEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
PANHANDLE/ALABAMA AND KEEPING WINDS UP IN MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN AL/GA BORDER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE EAST
COAST...OVER HATTERAS AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY SATURDAY...
SUSTAINING ITS CURRENT STRENGTH AS IT TRAVELS. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO
MOVE NE...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS IT DOES SO. ONE CONCERN FOR OUR CWA
IS HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT BACK OVER OUR AREA.
MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WHIPLASH TO APPLY AND HOW FAR WEST AND
SOUTH TO BRING THE LOW...WITH THE DYNAMIC ETA BRINGING THE LOW ALL
THE BACK INTO GA...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH.
TYPICALLY WETTER FWC AND ETA STILL CALL FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY ACROSS
THE BOARD THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS...20 TO 30 PERCENT HIGHER
THAN THE VERY DRY MAV. HAVE GONE WITH MODIFIED MAV. EXPECT MOST OF
THE PRECIP TOMORROW TO BE OF A SHOWERY AND GENERALLY LIGHT NATURE.
THURSDAY WILL PROVE TO BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BLUSTERY...AND VERY COOL
DAY ACROSS THE REGION...THE BLACKBERRY WINTER OF FOLKLORE. LOW
FINALLY HEADS NE UP THE E SEABOARD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A FAIR...COOL...AND DRY DAY
FOR FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMP FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS RUN.
AGAIN...THE TEMP FORECAST LEANS TOWARD MAV GUIDANCE.
MARINE: WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY AT SCA OR SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LASTING INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FINALLY GOING
BELOW SCEC CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH RH VALUES MAY DROP
BELOW 40 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
EXTENDED: LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED FORECAST. EXPECT A STRETCH OF
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER...AS WEAK SFC RIDGING AND DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
DOMINATE CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THUS
WILL SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TLH  59 43 72 45 78  2100
PFN  60 46 71 52 76  1100
DHN  54 44 70 49 77  2100
ABY  55 43 70 48 77  2100
VLD  57 46 70 48 78  2100
CTY  60 46 68 47 78  1100
$$
AFD
</PRE></TT></td>   fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1002 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003
WV LOOP/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHRTWV/CLOSED LOW MOVG
TOWARD HUDSON BAY. WK TROF EXTENDING FM HUDSON BAY SFC LOW HAS MOVED
THRU MN AND INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WK TROF WL MOVE THRU THE
FORECAST AREA OVRNGT AS LIGHT WINDS SHIFT FM SSW TO W. OTHER THAN
WIND SHIFT...NOT MUCH HAPPENING AS CIRRUS CLDS ALG BOUNDARY WL BE
MINIMAL. LOOK FOR SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLR OVRNGT.
TEMPS STILL LOOK ON TARGET MOST LOCATIONS. DID LOWER MINS A FEW
DEGREES (TO AROUND 30) ALONG LAKE MI COUNTIES AS TEMPS THERE ALREADY
IN MID TO UPPER 30S WITHIN PAST HR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER UPDATES
NEEDED.
.MQT...NONE.
VOSS
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 PM EDT THU APR 10 2003
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT SLUG OF OMEGA ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE AREA AROUND 12Z.  PLAN TO
UPDATE THE ZFP TO LOWER POPS TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBERS OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST.  SKIES WILL NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT TOO WITH COASTAL NC COUNTIES
UNDER CLEAR SKIES PRESENTLY.  PLAN TO INITIALIZE WITH A GRADIENT IN
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE TWEAKED AFTER A LOOK
AT THE 10 PM OBSERVATIONS.
MARINE: CURRENTLY SEEING W/SW WINDS 15-20 KT OFFSHORE AND 5-10 KT AT
THE BEACHES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
SEAS HAVE BEEN CHURNED UP BY THE STRONG NE FLOW FOR MOST OF THIS
WEEK AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. AS THE LAST LOW
PRESSURE FORMS LATE TONIGHT OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WINDS
WILL BECOME DIRECTED INTO THE CENTER OF THE LOW TOWARD MORNING. WILL
INDICATE DIRECTION BECOMING W IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND NW IN
THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS LATE...IN LINE WITH THE 21Z RUC...18Z
ETA...AND 18Z GFS MODELS. AFTER COORD WITH CHS...WILL LEAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR SEAS FOR ALL WATERS.
.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.
PUBLIC: RAN
MARINE: TRA
---------------------PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 404 PM ---------------------
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL SC IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE LOW HAS MOVED INLAND...WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
OUR EXTREME NWRN ZONES. WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NC
BEACHES TO EXPIRE.
THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION HAS SHIFTED N OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...TAKING THE PRECIPITATION WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA EARLIER
TODAY WITH IT. ALTHOUGH SOME SOME DRIER AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO WORK
ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF OUR NC COUNTIES CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR
OUT A BIT...SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO SRN/SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED TSTMS. WITH THE AREA
IN THE WARM SECTOR...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THE THREAT
OF HAIL REMAINS. AFTER SPEAKING WITH SPC...WE AGREED THAT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED (NRN ZONES). HOWEVER TIME APPEARS TO BE RUNNING OUT FOR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH CLOUDS GETTING READY TO FILL BACK IN AND
SUNSET NOT FAR AWAY.
THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LOW ON FRI...WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS THEN MOVING NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW A DRIER
WRLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WILL FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH FRI NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
SAT. LOOKS LIKE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUN.
GFS SHOWS AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR MON AND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BOTH
DAYS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BE MADE IF
NECESSARY.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR MEX/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES
CLOSELY.
MARINE: SFC LOW MAKING FOR A CONVALUTED WIND FCST FOR INITIAL PERIOD
AS IT WOBBLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
TO BECOME NW FRI AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS NE OF THE AREA. WNW
DIRECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SAT...SHIFTING NE EARLY SUN
BEHIND COLD FRONT.
WEAKEST GRAD ALONG THE EAST COAST IS OVER THE ILM MARINE ZONES.
SPEEDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS OF 18Z AND SEAS
SHOULD SLOWLY FOLLOW SUIT. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR 6 FT SEAS SRN
WATERS TO 8-9 FT N OF LITTLE RIVER. PRES GRAD WILL STRENGHTEN FRI
AFTN IN WAKE OF THE SFC LOW AND WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP TO 20 KT OR
SO INTO SAT AM. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL LIMIT SEAS TO 3-5 FT. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT NOT PROGGED TO BE CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS. SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP MON-TUE AS HI PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.
FCSTID =   36
ILM   46  62  46  71 /  70  70  10   0
LBT   45  59  44  72 /  70  60  10   0
FLO   44  61  45  73 /  70  50  10   0
MYR   46  62  47  71 /  60  60  10   0
.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE: CRM
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1020 AM EDT THU APR 10 2003
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER. A SHORT WAVE REVOLVING
AROUND THIS LOW IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ECHOES HAVE BEEN TRAINING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA...AS WELL AS FARTHER S NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER JUST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AS OF YET...PLAN ON
EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE UPPER LOW
IS STILL APPROACHING. MAY ALSO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED
ON COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SE OF CAPE FEAR ACCORDING TO MSAS. THE
ETA HAS THE LOW POSITIONED TO CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE GFS TO
TOO FAR N. THE RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS...AND
SHOWS THE LOW MOVING INLAND JUST N OF THE AREA. BECAUSE OF
THIS...WILL NEED TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR INLAND
COUNTIES.
ANOTHER ISSUE TO DEAL WITH TODAY IS THE HAIL THREAT. WITH THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHING...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE COLD POOL SPREADING OVER
THE AREA WITH H5 TEMPERATURES IN THE -15 TO -20 DEG C RANGE AND WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AT 6-9K FT. WE RECEIVED A PEA SIZE HAIL REPORT
WITH A VIL LESS THAN 5 EARLIER THIS MORNING. DO NOT PLAN ON ISSUING
A SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
MARINE: SFC LOW WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SSE OF CAPE FEAR AT
13Z. WINDS AT OR JUST BELOW SCA ATTM ACROSS THE WATERS AND SHOULD
DROP OFF AS THE LOW GETS PULLED WESTWARD UNDER THE UPPER LOW. 13Z
OBSERVED SEAS 9-10 FT AT FPSN7 AND 41004 SO SCA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. WILL ADJUST WINDS BASED ON LATEST LOW POSITION.
.ILM...
.NC...FLOOD WATCH PENDER-NEW HANOVER-BRUNSWICK-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-
      ROBESON COUNTIES.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...FLOOD WATCH HORRY-GEORGETOWN-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-DILLON-
      FLORENCE-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON COUNTIES.
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.
PUBLIC: JAQ
MARINE: CRM
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
325 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...WITH NORTHERN STREAM LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS UNDER UPPER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE...FROM LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOWS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH NARROW RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER. COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN LOW EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO MINNESOTA...WITH SECONDARY
FRONT WEST THROUGH LAKE WINNIPEG. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS PAST LAKE ERIE...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
QUIET AND DRY FORECAST...WITH ONLY CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN SHARPER ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP THAN DEPICTED BY 00Z MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE 03Z RUC HAS
TRENDED A BIT STRONGER. SURFACE FRONT NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WEAKENS FURTHER/SHEARS OUT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH JUST A THIN AND NARROW RIBBON OF CIRRUS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR ALONG RIDGE AXIS. FROM THE OTHER DIRECTION CIRRUS
OVER OHIO/LAKE ERIE HAS CONTINUED TO SPIN NORTHWEST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT HAS MADE NO PROGRESS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
GENERAL TREND WILL BE TO PROGRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT TO THE SOUTHERN CLOUDS. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL KEEPS SKIES
SUNNY FOR TODAY. MAY SEE SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS...BUT OVERALL THE DAY
WILL BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY CLIMBED TO NEAR 60F. MAY SEE
SOME WARMING AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE STARTING OUT 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH FULL SUN WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EDGE TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH AGREES WITH
UPSTREAM READINGS FROM YESTERDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FOR LAKE
BREEZES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER NEAR THE LAKES AGAIN.
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WITH THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAIN COLD ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THE SECONDARY FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH...MORE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS FEATURE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS
COVER. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. D3D/VIS-5D COLUMN
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THE SOURCE AIRMASS IS ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA. CURRENT SATELLITE/METARS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AREA...FROM FAR NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS WHAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT D3D
TRAJECTORIES ALSO SHOW PARCELS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY
SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE CWA...WHICH MAY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS WITH THE DIURNAL TIMING LATE AT
NIGHT...TO KEEP THE MENTION OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20C AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...ALSO
SEEN UPSTREAM ON 00Z CYQD OBSERVED SOUNDING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT DECENT CU DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. EXPECT CLOUD DECK TO START MIXING OUT AND BECOMING MORE
CELLULAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND HOW
MUCH WE TAP INTO THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MAY BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY LATE...ALTHOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS UP TO 10F COLDER THAN TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SCOURING
OUT THE REMAINING LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE. ETA/GFS HINT AT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING LATE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT MENTION
FOR NOW...AND STICK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK GRADIENT UNDER RIDGE
AXIS...COMBINED WITH SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...WILL
LEAD TO A COLDER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL THOUGH...WITH GENERAL PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
.DTX...NONE.
$$
BRAVENDER
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
255 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS
NAMERICA. CWA ON SRN FLANK OF NRLY ZONAL NRN BRANCH FLOW ACRS SRN
CAN DOWNWND OF UPR RDGING IN THE CNDN ROCKIES...WITH A POTENT
EMBEDDED SHRTWV MOVG ESE ACRS ONTARIO. THIS SHRTWV SUPPORTING A WEAK
SFC-H85 COLD FNT DANGLING SW FM SFC LO OVR FAR NRN ONTARIO INTO WRN
LK SUP AT 03Z. SFC TEMPS DROP OFF LTL BEHIND THE BNDRY...BUT H85
TEMPS DCRS FM 10C AHD OF FNT TO 4C AT INL AND 0C AT YQD. LOCAL 00Z
SDNGS DEPICT A VERY DRY AIRMASS (INL PWAT 0.19 INCH)...SO NOTHING
MORE THAN PTCHY CI ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FNT. 00Z INL/YQD SDNGS SHOW
SUBSIDENCE INVRN BEHIND FNT ARND H8...AND BOTH THESE SDNGS SHOW A
WELL MIXED BLYR UP TO H8. YPL SDNG LOOKS VERY SIMILAR. UNSTABLE
NATURE OF LLVL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTED MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S WELL
N INTO CAN ON THU. MUCH COLDER NOTED ACRS FAR NW ONTARIO...AND
CONSIDERABLE BACKWASH SC NOTED BEHIND SECONDARY COLD FNT IN SHARPER
CYC FLOW NR SFC LO OVR FAR NW ONTARIO/NRN MANITOBA. SRN EDGE OF THIS
CLD COVER APPEARS TO BE MOVG MORE W-E THAN S...IN LINE WITH MOTION
OF SHRTWV THRU ZONAL FLOW ACRS SRN CAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY/TNGT WL BE TEMPS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF DRY
COLD FNT AND WHETHER SC OVR FAR NRN ONTARIO CAN MAKE ITS WAY S INTO
CWA. 00Z MODELS SHOW ONTARIO SHRTWV CONTG DUE E TDAY WITH WEAK FNT
PASSING THRU ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z...FOLLOWED BY WEAK SFC RDGING/DRY
AIR/WNW FLOW DOMINATING CWA THRU LATE AFTN...WHEN SECONDARY COLD
FNT/HIER H85 RH PROGGED TO APRCH NRN KEWEENAW PENINSULA. GIVEN ZONAL
FLOW ALF AND MORE E THAN S MOTION OF SHRTWV AND LO CLD IN ONTARIO...
THINK MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE AT DRIVING COOLER
AIR IN FAR NRN ONTARIO/MANITOBA S INTO THE CWA TDAY. THIS SCENARIO
SUGS THAT CWA WL ENJOY ANOTHER WARM AND MOSUNNY DAY...WITH WNW FLOW
FAVORING LK SUP MODERATION OF TEMPS ACRS MAINLY THE FAR W CWA AND
E OF MQT. LK MI ZNS SHUD SEE MUCH HIER TEMPS THAN YDAY WITH 20KT
H925 NW WNDS SUPPRESSING ANY LK BREEZE PUSH INLAND THERE. ALL MOS
FCST MAX TEMPS APPEAR ON THE LO SIDE GIVEN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES/
OBSVD HI TEMPS UPSTREAM WELL N IN CAN ON THU AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF COOLER AIR SWD TOO QUICKLY.
AS UPR LO DEEPENS OFF THE PAC COAST TNGT...UPR RDG IN CNTRL CAN FCST
TO AMPLIFY AND BLD HI PRES IN SCNTRL CAN. THINK THIS EVOLUTION OF
THE PRES FIELD WL PUSH COOLER AIR S INTO THE UPR GRT LKS. BUT WITH
WEAKENING CYC FLOW AND MAJORITY OF LLVL COLD AIR REMAINING N OF LK
SUP...XPCT BACKWASH SC TO BE MUCH LESS WDSPRD THAN OBSVD EARLY THIS
MRNG. THINK PCLDY SHUD COVER SKY CONDITION...WITH THE BEST CHC OF
MORE CLD OVR THE E THAN THE W CLOSER TO GREATER CAD AND WHERE MODELS
SHOW HIER H85 RH (BUT OVERDONE). SFC DWPTS 23 TO 27 UPSTREAM IN
SOURCE AIRMASS...AND THIS APPEARS WL BE A LWR LIMIT ON MIN TEMPS
WITH SHARP ENUF PRES GRADIENT ON SRN FLANK OF SFC HI TO ALLOW ENUF
WND/MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FM FALLING THRU DWPT. PREFER HIER
ETA/AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS.
SFC/UPR RDGING TO REMAIN DOMINANT ON SAT WITH ACYC FLOW AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS. LINGERING MRNG SC OVR THE E SHUD GRDLY
DIMINISH WITH LWRG INVRN HGT/RISING H85 TEMPS SHOWN ON ETA FCST
SDNGS UNDER SLOWLY BLDG UPR RDG. NNE FLOW ON SRN FLANK OF ONTARIO HI
PRES WL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE LK SUP MODERATION OF MAX TEMPS WITH
READINGS NR THE SHORE HOLDING IN THE 30S PER ETA FCST 2M TEMPS. BUT
EVEN OVER INLAND AREAS...FCST SDNGS/ALL MOS SUG MAX TEMPS WL HAVE A
HARD TIME REACHING 50 WITH SHALLOW WEDGE OF LK MODIFIED COOL AIR
UNDER INVRN LWRG TO ARND H9.
AS HI PRES RDG SHIFTS TO THE E SAT NGT...ETA MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING
INCRSG WAD/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K SFC (ABOUT H7) BY LATE SAT NGT
BTWN THIS RDG AND FALLING PRES IN NRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
DROPPING ESE E OF UPR RDG IN NRN PLAINS WELL IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING
TROF OVR THE FAR W. ETA EVEN SHOWS AREA OF UPR DVGC OVR FA BY 12Z
SUN ACCOMPANYING 80KT H3 JET MAX OVR SRN ONTARIO. ETA ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE QPF OVR THE WRN ZNS LATE SAT NGT. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY
AIRMASS AND SHARP UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL NAMERICA DOWNWND OF TROFFING
OFF THE W COAST...PREFER DRIER GFS/CNDN MODELS WITH RESPONSIBLE
SHRTWV PASSING FARTHER N IN HIER AMPLITUDE RDG. XPCT LOWEST MINS
CLOSER TO LWR GFS MOS NUMBERS OVR THE INTERIOR SCNTRL...WITH HIER LO
TEMPS ACRS THE N AND W CLOSER TO OVRRNG CLD COVER. SEE NO REASON TO
CHG GOING FCST CHC SHRA ON SUN WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING CONTD
ISENTROPIC LIFT BTWN DEPARTING HI AND FALLING PRES IN NRN PLAINS.
.MQT...NONE.
KC
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
 AS AN AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO GRAZE THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. A
DEEP CUTOFF OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH...AND AS OF 07Z THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
00Z ETA AND 06Z RUC MODEL RUNS ARE WOEFULLY SLOW WITH THE CURRENT
PLACEMENT OF THE PCPN...WITH THE AVN DOING THE BEST JOB WITH THE 06Z
VERIFICATION. GIVEN THE BETTER SHORT TERM HANDLING OF THE PCPN...WILL
RELY MORE ON THE AVN FOR POSITIONING THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.
AS A RESULT...WILL LEAVE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM THE EVENING SHIFT
CONTINUITY FOR MUCH OF THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER. THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND SITES EAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS PCPN SHIELD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY 20-25 POPS FOR THOSE
AREAS. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY COURTESY OF A NEW ENGLAND SFC
RIDGE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR 50.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE FAIR WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SCENARIO...H8 TEMPS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8C SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AVN ALSO DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF DROPPING THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION SEEMINGLY HAS THE AVN
PRODUCING SOME -SHRA OVER THE REGION...BUT POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD KEEP ANY INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. WILL
KEEP PCPN OUT OF FORECAST FOR SAT AND USE 20 POPS.
A BROAD BASED RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL THEN START MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY TUESDAY...WITH A GRADUAL
DAY TO DAY WARMING AS A RESULT. WATCH FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 60S FOR MONDAY...AND MID TO UPPER 60S WITH H8 TEMPS OF +12 FOR
TUESDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW 70S...ESP AWAY FROM
LAKE ERIE.
.BUF...NONE.
RSH
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
PUBLIC: A BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE XTNDG EAST FM THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IS ASSOCD WITH AN UPPER LOW CNTRD OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SFC LOW NOW WEST OF FLORENCE SC IS WOBBLING ABOUT
UNDER THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER SFC LOW HAS FORMED OFFSHORE CAPE
HATTERAS. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING SLOWLY EAST WHILE
ROTATING NNW OVER THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA ATTM.
MODELS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT ON GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATING...DEEPENING AND MOVING THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THINK ETA IS A BIT SLOW IN MOVING OUT THE
LOW...AND THUS OVERDONE WITH THE PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY. WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST DECREASING TO HIGH CHANCE INLAND
FOR THIS MORNING. WILL RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN AND GO WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF SLT CHC OVERNIGHT. DRY SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU SAT
NIGHT/SUN MRNG WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER TEMPORARILY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE INTO THE OUTLOOK PD. SEE NO SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEMS MOVING
IN THRU THE OUTLOOK.
MARINE: WINDS CURRENTLY IN A LULL AS WEAK SFC LOW PRES INLAND FILLS
AND NEW LOW PRES FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AS THIS NEW LOW
MOVES QUICKLY UP THE COAST TODAY...RUC AND ETA SHOW RAPID DEEPENING
WITH DEVELOPMENT 25-35 KT WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW. WILL FORECAST HIGHEST WINDS (25 KT) OVER THE SURF
CITY-CAPE FEAR ZONE TODAY. AS THIS LOW CLEARS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING...NW WINDS WILL ADVECT COOLER DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA.
AT 35 NM OFFSHORE...FPSN7 SEAS ARE AT 7 FT WHICH SUGGESTS
INITIALIZING THE FORECAST WATERS 5-6 FT WITH A SLOWLY DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGHOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS ISSUANCE.
TONIGHT WINDS ARE FIRMLY OFFSHORE KNOCKING SEAS BACK FURTHER. SPEEDS
COULD REACH 25 KT FOR A TIME TONIGHT. SAT/SAT NIGHT FEATURES
WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
SUN MORNING WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTION OF FORECAST.
FCSTID = 40
ILM   61  45  72  51 /  70  20   0   0
LBT   59  44  73  48 /  50  10   0   0
FLO   59  44  74  50 /  50  10   0   0
MYR   55  44  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LITTLE RIVER INLET TO S SANTEE RIVER.
PUBLIC: REK
MARINE: TRA
</PRE></TT></td>   nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
130 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2003
MAIN FORECAST FOCUS...TEMPERATURES.
DATA ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE
NATIONS MID SECTION.  THIS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOCAL ANALYSIS AT 06Z SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM KHYR-KFRM.  THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS ALONG IT ARE IN THE LOWER 30S...BUT DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY
BEHIND IT.
00Z ETA/GFS/RUC MODEL INITIALIZATION REASONABLE WITH ALL FIELDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SURFACE DEWPOINT.  THE RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL
THAT ACTUALLY HAS THE SURFACE DEWPOINT NEAR REALITY.  THE RUC BRINGS
MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH.  THE
DIFFERENCE IS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES.  THIS IS SIGNIFICANT FOR FIRE
WEATHER PURPOSES...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS.  OTHERWISE...ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DELAYED.  THEREFORE...HAVE ADJUSTED
HIGHS UP SIGNIFICANTLY.  COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOES MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS CAUSES
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.  850 MB WIND MAX OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS
ALIGNS ITSELF ACROSS THE WIND SWEPT AREAS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ONLY TRANSPORT WARM AIR NORTHWARD.  THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SO MUCH SUBSIDENCE
THAT MIXING THESE WINDS DOWN THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER SEEMS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE.  TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE BELOW 700 MB WILL PRECLUDE ANY DIURNAL TYPE CLOUDS.
.LSE...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
$$
KRC
</PRE></TT></td>   wi
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 AM MST FRI APR 11 2003
.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE TURNING EAST ACROSS ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
VORT CENTER OVER EXTREME SE ARIZONA EXITING THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM
ONLY BROUGHT SOME CLOUD COVER TO SE ARIZONA YESTERDAY. ANOTHER
WEAKER SECONDARY VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST
TODAY WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE.
DURING THE DAY MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK FLAT RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPILIFIED AXIS OCCURRING
WELL TO THE EAST...OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. BEGINNING SATURDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC STORM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS INDICATE THAT THE PACIFIC
STORM MAY NOT PACK AS MUCH PUNCH WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. 00 UTC RUN OF THE AVN SHOW THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NOT GETTING INTO MY FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC MONDAY AND EVEN
THEN THE MOISTURE IN THE MODELS IS DEPICTED AS A NARROW BAND WHICH
SHOULD QUICKLY BLOW THROUGH THE REGION. BY 12 UTC TUE ONLY SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WHITES AND BY 18Z TUE THE
MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY SWEPT INTO COLORADO/NRN NEW MEXICO AS THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS TO THE NE. WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY STILL
SEEM TO BE IN ORDER AS AVN IS ADVERTISING 30 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB AND
40+ KNOTS AT 700MB WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH RIDING DOWN THE WEST COAST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH
ARIZONA BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THIS
PACKAGE. ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...GFS
INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL RESIDE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION. WILL THAT SAID... FOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL KEEP
A CHANCE GOING BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL SHAVE POPS FROM GRIDS/ZONES
CONSIDERABLY...MAINLY LEAVING ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDS
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY THAT TIME. WEATHER SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
GONE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS DYNAMICS QUICKLY MOVE NE. THEREAFTER...NO
MENTION OF POP NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
MOLLERE
.TWC...NONE.
$$
</PRE></TT></td>   az
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
940 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2003
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE
RIDGE OF MODERATING CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM EAST COAST SYSTEM DRYING OUT
ATMOSPHERE.
ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR MOST ZONES. THINK THAT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ROCKFORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA PREFRONTAL. RUC THETA E PROFILE WOULD
SUGGEST MIXING TO 850 MB TODAY. 12Z DVN SOUNDING AND LOCAL ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL YIELD ABOUT 70 DEGREES. THE ONLY CONCERN
OTHER THAN THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE A LAKE BREEZE IS
ONCE AGAIN FORECASTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AS IS THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (WATER
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES).
.CHI...NONE.
ROGOWSKI
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO NW WIND AS
MIXING STARTS. MAIN ITEM IS FRONT COMING DOWN LAKE LATE AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SWINGS WIND TO N OR NE AND INCREASE SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT
CLOUDS WITH FROPA. WIND THEN STAYS NE OR N THRU NIGHT.
AF
</PRE></TT></td>   il
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1107 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL STILL MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN PER
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY AS THERE IS A LACK OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MIXING TO 880MB (THE HEIGHT WE MIXED TO
YESTERDAY) ON THIS MORNINGS DTX SOUNDING WOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH THE MESO ETA INDICATING SOME SLIGHT
WARMING AT 925MB THIS AFTERNOON...SOME READINGS ARE LIKELY TO HIT
THE MID 60S. I WILL THEREFORE ISSUE AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AFTERNOON
HIGHS ACCORDINGLY. STILL EXPECTING LAKE BREEZES TODAY...SO READINGS
WILL BE COOLER NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
CONSIDINE
.............PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION............
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...WITH NORTHERN STREAM LOW NEAR JAMES BAY. GREAT
LAKES SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS UNDER UPPER SHORTWAVE
RIDGE...FROM LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
LOWS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH NARROW RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER. COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN LOW EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO MINNESOTA...WITH SECONDARY
FRONT WEST THROUGH LAKE WINNIPEG. IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH CIRRUS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NOT
MAKING MUCH PROGRESS PAST LAKE ERIE...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
CLOUDS WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
QUIET AND DRY FORECAST...WITH ONLY CONCERNS REVOLVING AROUND
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS. SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN SHARPER ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP THAN DEPICTED BY 00Z MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE 03Z RUC HAS
TRENDED A BIT STRONGER. SURFACE FRONT NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...AND
WEAKENS FURTHER/SHEARS OUT AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN QUEBEC. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...WITH JUST A THIN AND NARROW RIBBON OF CIRRUS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY CLEAR ALONG RIDGE AXIS. FROM THE OTHER DIRECTION CIRRUS
OVER OHIO/LAKE ERIE HAS CONTINUED TO SPIN NORTHWEST TOWARD LOWER
MICHIGAN...BUT HAS MADE NO PROGRESS DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD.
GENERAL TREND WILL BE TO PROGRESS THE RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
EXTENT TO THE SOUTHERN CLOUDS. WITH ALL THIS SAID...WILL KEEPS SKIES
SUNNY FOR TODAY. MAY SEE SOME WISPS OF CIRRUS...BUT OVERALL THE DAY
WILL BE SUNNY. TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY CLIMBED TO NEAR 60F. MAY SEE
SOME WARMING AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE STARTING OUT 5-10F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH FULL SUN WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO EDGE TOWARD/INTO THE LOWER 60S...WHICH AGREES WITH
UPSTREAM READINGS FROM YESTERDAY. WEAK GRADIENT FOR LAKE
BREEZES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES LOWER NEAR THE LAKES AGAIN.
REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. WITH THE
WEAK NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY...MAIN COLD ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THE SECONDARY FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH...MORE LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS FEATURE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS
COVER. 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. D3D/VIS-5D COLUMN
TRAJECTORIES INDICATE THE SOURCE AIRMASS IS ACROSS NORTHERN
MANITOBA. CURRENT SATELLITE/METARS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AREA...FROM FAR NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS WHAT WOULD MAKE IT INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT D3D
TRAJECTORIES ALSO SHOW PARCELS FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY
SUBSIDING BY THE TIME THEY REACH THE CWA...WHICH MAY WORK TO ERODE
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS WITH THE DIURNAL TIMING LATE AT
NIGHT...TO KEEP THE MENTION OF BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CWA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 20C AND INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...ALSO
SEEN UPSTREAM ON 00Z CYQD OBSERVED SOUNDING. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO EXPECT DECENT CU DURING THE
DAY AS WELL. EXPECT CLOUD DECK TO START MIXING OUT AND BECOMING MORE
CELLULAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SOME BREAKS OF SUN AND AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING AND HOW
MUCH WE TAP INTO THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MAY BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY LATE...ALTHOUGH WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT MENTION FOR NOW. WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS UP TO 10F COLDER THAN TODAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT...SCOURING
OUT THE REMAINING LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE. ETA/GFS HINT AT MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING LATE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT MENTION
FOR NOW...AND STICK WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR
THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK GRADIENT UNDER RIDGE
AXIS...COMBINED WITH SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT...WILL
LEAD TO A COLDER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S IN
MOST AREAS. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK NEAR NORMAL. ADDITIONAL
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL THOUGH...WITH GENERAL PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
.DTX...NONE.
$$
BRAVENDER
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)
</PRE></TT></td>   mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1007 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP GETS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OVERALL FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO WORDING AND CLOUD COVER. ALSO...BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
SFC FLOW WL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND
UP ACRS WESTERN CWA.
WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS STRONG MID/UPPER LVL LOW PRES ACRS
NC SLOWLY MOVING NE TOWARD OUR CWA WITH PLENTY OF ULVL MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM S/W ENERGY ACRS GREAT
LAKES WL HELP TO DEFLECT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUGGEST NORTHWEST DEVELOPMENT OF
MOISTURE ACRS WESTERN/NORTHERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN SYSTEM HAS
DECREASED AND WL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST SHORTLY.
OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LVL FEATURES AND
ASSOCIATED TRACK OF SFC LOW PRES ACRS MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH SYSTEM. BASED ON CRNT RADAR TRENDS AND SFC
OBS MODELS ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTIES WITH POSITION/MOVEMENT OF
NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD. HOWEVER...FEEL THE GFS 850-500MB
RH FIELD OF 60-70% LINE UP NICELY WHERE THE CRNT RADAR IS DEPICTING
PRECIP. THEREFORE...WL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC OF -RW ACRS SOUTHERN
CWA TODAY AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY. OTHERWISE...WL MAKE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CRNT CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATL PICS AND OBS.
A LARGE TEMP RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS THE CWA BASED ON
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. RUC 2M TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 60F
AT KMSS WITH ONLY U40S ACRS RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES. GIVEN...MSS
IS ALREADY 52F AT 14Z WL ADJUST WESTERN ZONES UP AND MENTION HIGHS
ONLY IN THE U40S ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED TO CRNT FCST.
.BTV...NONE.
TABER
</PRE></TT></td>   vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 AM EST FRI APR 11 2003
UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT FCST PRODUCTS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS. OTHER THAN SPOTTY -DZ...AKQ FORECAST
AREA GENERALLY PCPN FREE ATTM HOWEVER LARGE AREA PCPN MOVG N FM SE
NC COAST. RECENT RUC/MESOETA RUNS SUGG MAIN BODY OF THIS PCPN HUGS
COASTLINE BUT SOME LIGHTER PCPN SHUD PUSH INTO INLAND AREAS AS WELL
AS IT CROSSES INTO SRN VA THIS AFTN. OVERALL...LOWERED POPS 10-20%
CWA-WIDE.
UPR LOW SPINNING ALG SC CST WL VERY SLOWLY MOVE NE ALG CAROLINA
COASTLINE TODAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE LARGE
CIRCULATION WHICH SHUD AID CLOUD EROSION...BUT AREA MORNING
SOUNDINGS VERY WET IN THE LOW LVLS SO WL BE HARD FOR SUN TO POKE
THRU. LOWERED AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGS PER EXPECTED OVC.
CWF: RAISE SCA FOR CURRITUCK SOUND. HEAVY SURF ADVISORY RMNS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTN.
PREV DISC BLO:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
UPR LO SPINNING NR THE SC CST WILL FINALLY LIFT ENE OFF THE NC CST
INTO THIS EVENG...THEN EVENTUALLY OFF THE SRN NEW ENG CST BY 12Z
SAT.  UNTIL THIS SYS MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA LATER TNGT/ERLY SAT
MORNG...THE THREAT FOR SHRAS WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA.  WILL GO
LIKELY POPS IN THE E AND HI CHC POPS IN THE W.  TEMPS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LWR TO MID 50S TODAY AS MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE
REGION.
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TWRD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
SAT...AS HI PRES STARTS TO BLD SE FM THE GRT LKS.  WELCOMED
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL RESULT.
HI PRES WILL THEN BLD OVR FA ON SUN...THEN REMAIN ALONG OR
JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST FOR MON INTO WED.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
.AKQ...
.MD...SCA CSTL WTRS FM FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE. HEAVY SURF
ADVISORY AND CSTL WTRS.
.NC...SCA CSTL WTRS FM NC/VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. HEAVY SURF ADVISORY S CHES BAY CSTL WTRS.
.VA...SCA CHES BAY S OF SMITH PT...AND CSTL WTRS FM CHINCOTEAGUE
TO NC/VA BORDER. HEAVY SURF ADVISORY CSTL WTRS.
CULLEN
</PRE></TT></td>   va
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1235 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2003
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY CONCERN IS WINDS. LAKE BREEZE JUST FORMING
AND SHOULD BE TO ORD WITHIN NEXT HOUR THEN MDW 1-2 HRS. THEN WEAK
COLD FRONT COMES THRU LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING NNE WINDS ACROSS
ENTIRE AREA. NNE FLOW CONTINUES REST OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD PICK
UP AGAIN WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE MORNING SAT WITH A LITTLE
MIXING AND TIGHTER GRADIENT AS RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF AREA.
CMS
DISCUSSION FOR 1000 AM ZONE UPDATE
RIDGE OF MODERATING CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SUNNY SKIES TO
PREVAIL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM EAST COAST SYSTEM DRYING OUT
ATMOSPHERE.
ADJUSTED WINDS AND TEMPS FOR MOST ZONES. THINK THAT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ROCKFORD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA PREFRONTAL. RUC THETA E PROFILE WOULD
SUGGEST MIXING TO 850 MB TODAY. 12Z DVN SOUNDING AND LOCAL ACARS
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WILL YIELD ABOUT 70 DEGREES. THE ONLY CONCERN
OTHER THAN THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE A LAKE BREEZE IS
ONCE AGAIN FORECASTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING A DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST AS IS THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR (WATER
TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 40 DEGREES).
.CHI...NONE.
ROGOWSKI
</PRE></TT></td>   il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
415 PM EDT FRI APR 11 2003
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND TEMPS/POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WX PATTERN GETS MORE INTERESTING NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD
DECK NOW IN NORTHERN PART OF LAKE. WITH ELY PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE
ALOFT...CLOUD DECK MAKING AS MUCH HEADWAY EAST AS SOUTH. TEMPS HAVE
WARMED NICELY ONCE AGAIN...INTO 50S OR LOWER 60S...BUT LOCATIONS
NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORE HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY (TO AROUND 40F) AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING RIDGE IN
HIGH PLAINS...W/ DIGGING PACIFIC TROF OUT WEST.
RUC AND MESOETA SHOW 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AS COOL AIR OOZES OVER LAKE. W/ INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DRY
AIR ABOVE INVERSION HEIGHT OF ABOUT 3.5FT DEVELOPING...DRIZZLE MAY
BECOME A POSSIBILITY. BUT W/ ERODING NATURE OF CLOUDS TO NORTH...AND
NO OBSERVED PCPN UNDERNEATH...WILL KEEP W/ JUST CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WIND WILL MEAN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECTING
LAKESHORE HIGHS ONLY IN MID/UPR 30S...TO UPR 40S SOUTH. BETTER
MIXING SHOULD ERODE THE CLOUDS A GREAT DEAL BY AFTN.
AFTER COOLER NIGHT SAT NIGHT...HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS FOR
WAA TO KICK IN SUNDAY. ETA AND AVN SHOW MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
300-310K SFCS...BUT W/ DRY AMS IN PLACE THINK THAT SHOULD JUST SEE
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLDS (CPD'S CONCURS WITH THIS). WILL KEEP W/
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON THOUGH WITH WARM
FRONT...THOUGH BEST UPR SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH WHERE AVN/ETA
AND UKMET ARE GENERATING A GOOD DEAL OF QPF (AT NOSE OF 40-50KT H8
JET MAX).
PLACEMENT OF SFC FRONT THEN POSES A MAJOR DILEMMA FOR FCST WX/TEMPS
MON-WED. ON MON...NOW LOOKS AS IF FRONT WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR
NORTH...MEANING A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY AFTER LINGERING -SHRA EARLY.
ETA SHOWS H8 TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 20C IN WEST BY 00Z TUE...WHICH
WITH GOOD SW WIND WOULD MEAN POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS (RECORD AT NWS
OFFICE IS 71F). ETA SOUNDINGS...WITH MIXING TO 900MB...WOULD GIVE
HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 70S WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS. ONLY POSSIBLE
SETBACK WOULD BE ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS (PWATS UP TO NEAR AN INCH
W/ MODEL DEWPTS NEAR 50F)...BUT DON'T BELIEVE THIS WILL BE AN ISSUE
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS. SO HAVE UPPED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN (OF COURSE) WHERE FOLKS WILL FEEL WRATH OF
ICY LAKE. ALSO...WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALF (H7 TEMPS TO 4C) AND CAPPED
AMS (WE WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR)...SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF DRY WX UNTIL
PACIFIC TROF NEARS (NOT TIL LATER TUE). SO HAVE ADJUSTED GRIDS TO
SHOW DRY WX FROM MON TIL DAYTIME TUE. AGAIN...NEED TO WATCH
PLACEMENT OF FRONT.
FOR TUE HAVE KEPT W/ CHC TSRA...THOUGH BEST DYNAMICS DON'T ARRIVE
TIL LATE IN DAY. BIG FACTOR WILL BE POLAR LOW IN CANADA...WHICH LOOK
TO COMPRESS HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA IN CONFLUENT FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PACIFIC TROF. 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO TRACK SFC LOW TO NORTH OF CWA
WED...BUT HAVE SIDED W/ MORE REASONABLE UKMET AND ENSEMBLE MEAN (AND
HPC FCST) WHICH TAKE SFC LOW THROUGH WI/NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. IN ALL...
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE WARMEST DAY...WITH COOLER TUE (PENDING LOCATION
OF FRONT)...AND MUCH COOLER AND WET WED W/ NE WIND. HAVE UPPED POPS
TO LIKELY WED AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TUE INTO
WED. AM NOT EXPECTING SEVERE ATTM...THOUGH IF FURTHER-NORTH GFS PANS
OUT THIS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY (50KT H8 JET AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE).
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SNOW ON THU AS COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
IS SUBSTANTIAL (H8 TEMPS BACK DOWN TO WELL BELOW ZERO). HIGH BUILDS
IN FRI FOR DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL DAY...PER ENSEMBLE MEAN. WHEW...
THAT'S ALL.
.MQT...NONE.
JKL
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SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2003
ADDITIONAL...WILL INCLUDE LOW POPS FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY FOR
THUNDER THIS EVENING.  ACTIVITY PICKED UP BY RUC40 MODEL.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING AND EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT.  FOG AND DRIZZLE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EACH AFTERNOON.  THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS REPLACED BY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TUESDAY.  MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
OCCUR NORTH OF THE CWA BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WHICH
HANGS UP/WASHES OUT ACROSS THE CWA WITH LITTLE EFFECT.  WEAK UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER LOW POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  NIGHT
TIME TEMPS WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AND LOWS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIM NUMBERS...
AUS 48 80 55 81 0000
DRT 57 86 63 85 0000
SAT 55 81 60 81 0000
.EWX...NONE.
3/19/23
</PRE></TT></td>   tx