PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST THU MAR 01 2007
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAR 07 - 11 2007

TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY 
500-HPA CIRCULATION FEATURES PREDICTED OVER THE PACIFIC - NORTH AMERICA SECTOR 
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND ARE VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.  AGAIN 
TODAY... THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT AMPLIFIED PATTERN... AND IT 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.  ALL PROGS PLACE A 
RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL WEEK...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE 
SHOWS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH... ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 
PHASE.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER TODAY... 
PREDICTING A STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC 
STATES.  THE HIGH-RESOLUTION OPERATIONAL VERSIONS OF EACH MODEL WERE IN 
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS... ALTHOUGH AS 
USUAL THEY HAD SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERNS IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THE OVERALL 
PICTURE SHOWN BY THE BLENDED OFFICIAL 500-HPA PROG INDICATES A MEAN TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM SIBERIA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SEA OF JAPAN... A STRONGLY 
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN 
ALEUTIANS TO THE BERING SEA... AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF 
OF ALASKA NEAR THE NORTHERN ALASKA PANHANDLE.  BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS 
EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF CANADA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  AT LOWER LATITUDES... A 
ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT 
ANOMALIES EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  A RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC.  VERY STRONG ZONAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST COAST TO WESTERN EUROPE.  AN AREA OF STRONG CYCLONIC 
FLOW AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS PREDICTED TO BE CENTERED NEAR THE BRITISH 
ISLES TO THE NORTH OF A VERY STRONG AZORES RIDGE... WITH HINTS OF A TROUGH 
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN... SUGGESTING THE 
LIKELIHOOD FOR INTENSE STORMINESS OVER WESTERN EUROPE AND POSSIBLY THE 
MEDITERRANEAN AS WELL.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z 
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 
7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT 
OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 
18Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS 
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF 
1 TO 5... DUE TO RELATIVELY SMALL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS 
AND CONTINUING GOOD CONSISTENCY IN BOTH MODELS WITH YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS.  THE 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS BASED ON TODAYS OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG WERE 
ALSO IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN...NEURAL NET... AND ANALOG 
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST... AND 2-METER UNCALIBRATED AND CALIBRATED TEMPERATURES 
FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE CDC TEMPERATURE TOOL BECAME AVAILABLE AGAIN 
TODAY AND WAS ALSO CONSIDERED.  THE NAEFS (NORTH AMERICAN ENSEMBLE FORECAST 
SYSTEM) A NEW EXPERIMENTAL TEMPERATURE WHICH USES AN EQUAL WEIGHTING OF THE 
MOST RECENT FOUR GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE MOST RECENT TWO (0Z AND 12Z) 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AS INPUTS... WAS ALSO CONSIDERED.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG 
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOL.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15 2007:

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 
EXPECTED CIRCULATION FEATURES AT MIDDLE AND LOW LATITUDES OVER THE PACIFIC - 
NORTH AMERICA REGION FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE WERE RATHER LARGE 
DISCREPANCIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND THE ARCTIC.  OVERALL... THE GFS FORECAST 
PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO MOST SOLUTIONS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  THEY ARE 
FORECASTING PERSISTENCE BUT SOME WEAKENING OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE 
BERING SEA AND THE TROUGH JUST OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  THE ASSOCIATED 
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST OVER 
NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FROM ITS POSITION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD... 
RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER STATES 
OF THE CONUS.  A WEAK ZONALLY-ORIENTED RIDGE IS INDICATED TO EXTEND ALL THE WAY 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS... AND THE GFS-BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS AGREE ON A 
WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE AREA OF POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY OR APPALACHIANS.  THE INDIVIDUAL OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS WERE AGAIN SHOWING 
DIFFERENT POSSIBILITES... ANYWHERE FROM THE PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND... AS TO 
WHERE A TROUGH MIGHT DEVELOP AND BREAK THE RIDGE... ADDING A NOTE OF 
UNCERTAINTY TO THE VERY ZONAL OFFICIAL PROG.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWED 
THE MOST AMPLITUDE IN THE BERING SEA RIDGE AND THE NORTHWEST CANADA TROUGH... 
EVEN MORE THAN THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS RUNS... MOST OF WHICH SHOW A MORE MARKED 
WEAKENING IN THESE FEATURES.   

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS 
CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 
11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT 
OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 
GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS NEAR AVERAGE... 3 ON A SCALE OF 
1 TO 5... DUE PRIMARILY TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE GFS 
OVER THE CONUS... OFFSET BY NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE HIGH RESOLUTION 
OPERATIONAL GFS MODELS.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MAN WAS IN REASONABLY GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES... ALTHOUGH IT MAINTAINED MORE AMPLITUDE IN 
THE BERING SEA RIDGE AND THE NORTHWESTERN CANADA TROUGH..  EVEN THOUGH 
ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE OFTEN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE CONUS WITH 
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN... THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
TODAY.  HOWEVER... THE RISK REMAINS THAT  SMALL CHANGES IN THE PATTERN SUCH AS 
A RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN TROUGH BREAKING THROUGH THE ZONAL RIDGE COULD BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE CHANGE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN DUE TO A 
SIGNIFICANT BUT FAST-MOVING DAILY WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WOULD NOT SHOW IN THE 
MEAN.

THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE THE KLEIN... NEURAL NET... AND 
ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD...  THE CALIBRATED 2-METER 
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... AND THE CPC AUTO TEMPERATURE 
FORECAST... AS WELL AS THE CDC FEFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOL.  THE NAEFS TOOL... 
WHCIH IS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE 6-10 DAY DISCUSSION... WAS ALSO CONSIDERED.

THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NEURAL NET AND ANALOG 
SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD... THE CPC AUTO 
PRECIPITATION FORECAST... AND CPC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES FROM THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS... AND THE CDC CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

FORECASTER: WAGNER

NOTES: 

OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE 
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE 
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS 
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS 
CHANGE.

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS. 

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR 
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN 
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
MARCH 15.  AN UPDATED MONTLY FORECAST FOR MARCH WAS RELEASED ON FEB 28. 

NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE
TRANSMITTED AS PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE
DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE
CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19520216 - 19850209 - 19560220 - 19580308 - 19620304
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19520216 - 19560220 - 19850209 - 19580308 - 19620304
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 11, 2007
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    B     
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B     
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B     
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    B     
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A     
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A     
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    N     
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    B    A     
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A     
MASS        B    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N     
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N     
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B     
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B     
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  N    N     
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N     
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    N     
 
 
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 09 - 15, 2007
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N     
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    N     
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    N    B     
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B     
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B     
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    B     
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N     
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A     
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    N     
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A     
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    N    N     
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N     
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B     
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B     
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  N    N     
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B     
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    N     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$