INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
245 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
CONVECTION STILL OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN HALF OF                
THIS FCST AREA. NOSE OF A 700 MB SPEED MAX...AS INDICATED ON RUC                
ANALYSIS ALONG WITH WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE HELPING TO MAINTAIN                   
CONVECTION. A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL CA               
WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS.                
PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE MAX TEMPS. AREAS OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER IN             
THE SOUTH VALLEY...AND OUTFLOW FROM INYO COUNTY INTO NORTHEAST KERN             
COUNTY MAY HOLD TEMPS UNDER CURRENT FCST VALUES. FOR THE MOST                   
PART...CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS SEEN ON            
WATER VAPOR LOOPS. SO WOULD EXPECT MOST OF THE DEBRIS TO DISSIPATE              
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT VALUES SINCE CURRENT            
TEMPS 2-7 DEGS ABOVE YESTERDAY...AND WILL OFFSET AFFECTS OF MORNING             
CLOUDS. MODELS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE NEXT 2             
DAYS...SO STORMS NOT QUITE AS MANY AS PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...                    
ESPECIALLY DESERTS. PW/S ACROSS DESERT AREAS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1             
INCH. HOWEVER...STABILITY INDICIES ONLY NEAR -1 AFTERNOON HOURS AND             
SURFACE DEW PTS ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH SO THINK FF POTENTIAL                  
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PER COORD WITH LAS...WILL NOT GO WITH FF                  
WATCH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR.                                            
EXTENDED MODELS MAINTAIN STATUS-QUO WITH MONSOON IN FULL SWING.                 
FAT 000 BFL 1-- YNP 333   BINGHAM                                               
.HNX...NONE.                                                                    
FAT BU 102/073 105/076 106 85000                                                
BFL BU 100/073 103/076 104 851--                                                
YNP BB 093/062 094/064 095 85333                                                
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KMTR 100930  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
920 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DIED DOWN ACROSS THE CWA WITH LEFT OVER       
MID AND HI CLOUDS STILL AROUND. ALREADY UPDATED TO REMOVE CHC OF                
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED POPS TO 20 WITH A FEW PATCHS            
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES STILL ON THE RADAR SCOPE AN HOUR AGO.                
00Z MAPS SFC ANALYSIS...SHOWING FRONT STILL OFF TO THE NORTH NEAR               
SRN TN BORDER AREA WITH 1015 LOW PRES MOVING INTO WRN MS. 21Z RUC KEEPS         
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL/GA THROUGH 09Z AND INDICATES               
MOST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. 18Z MESO             
ETA INDICATING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE             
OFFSHORE WATERS BUT BIG BEND EAST OF TALLAHASSEE SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR.        
WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP AND BRING IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS TREND            
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                   
VOLKMER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 110103  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...THE VORT CENTER CONTINUES TO SLID EAST ACROSS THE                   
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. LAST TWO RUC MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE            
THE SAME SCENARIO AS OUTLINED THIS AM...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR            
STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MARION...FLAGLER...PUTNAM AND ST.                
JOHNS COUNTIES. THE SUWANNEE VALLEY COUNTIES POPS WERE INCREASED TO             
70 PCNT (THANKS KTLH) AND WE'LL LET THEM RIDE AN AREA OF PRECIP IS              
MOVING OUT OF THE BIG BEND/APALACHEE BAY.                                       
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST SLIDES EAST            
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION MAINTAINING THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP                    
ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA). THE VORT             
CENTER OVER THE REGION MOVES EAST AND THE GREATEST MOISTURE MOVES               
OFFSHORE. CONVECTION SHOULD POPS THROUGH LATE NIGHT WITH THE VORT               
CENTER AROUND. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION...                 
EXCEPT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA.                                                       
MARINE...NGM BRIEFLY INCREASES WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BUT             
DROPS THEM DOWN BY DAWN. DON'T BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION. AVN AND ETA              
ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHER WINDS WELL BEYOND THE COASTAL               
WATERS AREA. CWF LOOKS FINE AS IS.                                              
PRELIM                                                                          
AMG 72/93/73/88 3555                                                            
SSI 74/90/74/89 3534                                                            
JAX 71/94/72/93 3534                                                            
GNV 70/93/70/92 3524 05                                                         
SANDRIK                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KMFL 101751  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
947 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTER OF STATE HAS SHOWN NIL MOVEMENT FROM                   
FRIDAY. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS HAVE DRIED A LITTLE SINCE FRIDAY...                  
ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL EXIST FOR STORMS             
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE NORTH. SEABREEZE SHOULD BE A          
LITTLE LATER IN FORMATION DUE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS LIMITING            
AN EARLY WARM UP AREA WIDE. RUC MODEL SHOWS LOW A LEVEL SW WIND                 
PICKING UP OVER THE N COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COMBINATION             
OF SEA BREEZE AND THE INCREASED SYNOPTIC WIND ALONG WITH ACTIVE WEST            
COAST BREEZE WILL GIVE BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM INTERIOR                   
CENTRAL FL TO VOLUSIA COUNTY. OVER THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST               
STORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE COAST THE LAST                
COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN WEAK STEERING WINDS INVOF AND SOUTH OF RIDGE               
AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH COAST WILL BE            
WITH INITIAL FORMATION OF SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING. NO             
ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO ZONE FCST ATTM.                                     
TKS JAX FOR COORD                                                               
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PENDERGRAST/GLITTO                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTAE 101341  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
910 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
LOOKING AT THE EARLY VIS SAT IMAGERY AND WV IMAGERY...IT APPEARS                
THAT THE RUC MODEL HAVE THE SITUATION NAILED DOWN THIS AM.                      
CURRENTLY...THERE IS A VORT CENTER OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH              
THE GREATEST SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX CONV IN THAT AREA. NOT                       
SURPRISINGLY THAT IS WHEN THE CONVECTION IS.                                    
THE MODEL INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE THIS MORNING ALONG                      
INTERSTATE 10 WITH THE VORT CENTER EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE                  
REGION. SO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE SUWANNEE                  
VALLEY AND AREAS WEST OF I-75 LATER THIS MORNING.                               
BY EARLY AFTERNOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FROM             
CRESCENT LAKE NORTH ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND THEN INTO COASTAL             
GEORGIA. LI'S DECREASE TO -5 ABOUT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM LIFT. SO SEE             
THAT AS BEING THE SECOND AREA TO POP. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE SHOULD            
PROVIDE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ALSO HOLD THEM BACK FROM THE                       
BEACHES/INLETS UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.                                             
BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF SE GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA IS VERY MOIST            
WITH THE GREATEST LIFT AND MOISTURE BEING OVER THE CRESCENT LAKE...             
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST AND PALATKA AREAS. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE SHOULD             
BE WET BY THAT TIME...BUT SUSPECT THAT ABOVE HIGHLIGHTED AREA WILL              
BE THE MAIN AREA OF STRONG...TO POSSIBLY PULSE SEVERE STORMS...FROM             
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MY GUT FEELING IS TO UP THE POPS              
IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL             
AROUND 1030 AND RE-COORD WITH KMLB BEFORE UPDATING.                             
WITH THE VORT CENTER OVER SW GA EXTENDING TO THE SSI/BQK AREAS AND              
GOOD SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER SE GA WOULD RECOMMEND KATL               
INCREASE POPS UP A CATEGORY TO A GOOD CHANCE - 50 PERCENT RANGE.                
CWF...MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. WITH SW WINDS EXPECT 2 FEET                   
NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE. STORMS MAY COVER THE INLETS AND            
PASSES BY MID-AFTERNOON.                                                        
THANKS FOR THE COORD KMLB.                                                      
SANDRIK                                                                         
 fl                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1015 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 8 PM 500 MB DATA SHOWED A MINOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH            
FROM WESTERN SC TO SOUTHEAST GA. THE RUC FORECASTS THIS FEATURE TO BE           
OFF THE GA COAST BY 8 AM...AS AN EAST-WEST STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS             
ACROSS TN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT IN FAR NORTH GA...         
BUT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS TO THE WEST OVER AR. THE            
ZONE FORECAST UPDATES FOR TONIGHT WILL SHOW CHANCES OF RAIN RANGING             
FROM 50 PERCENT FAR NORTH TO 30 PERCENT CENTRAL AND 20 PERCENT FAR              
SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER             
THE NORTH WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALLS WERE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING.                                                                        
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
SCHAUB                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 101958  ga                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
900 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
DIURNAL CU HAVE GIVEN WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS            
EVENING...THE RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER            
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL                  
GENERALLY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.                            
AS A RESULT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT            
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.                                                          
FORECAST IS NOT AS STRAIGHT FORWARD OVER EASTERN UPPER...HOWEVER...             
AND THIS REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE. IR SATELLITE                
LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...               
MOVING SLOWLY SE. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MODEST 850/500 MB FRONTOGENETICAL/QG                  
FORCING...MAINLY THE RESULT OF STRONG WAA OCCURRING ACROSS THE TOP              
OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THE 12Z MODELS WANTED TO SLIDE THE RESULTING                
MOISTURE SAFELY EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE            
RUC BRINGS HIGHER RH/S AND PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR             
BY 09Z SUNDAY MORNING. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE                   
TRENDS...WHICH SHOWS THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING TO THE SE. WILL              
CONSEQUENTLY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO EASTERN UPPER LATE                  
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.                          
HAVE MODIFIED OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ONLY                      
SLIGHTLY...RAISING THEM JUST A BIT.                                             
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SMITH/ADAM                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 101947  mi                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE NEAR RECORD LOWS WITHIN THE CWA. WV SATL IMAGE             
THIS AFTN SHOWING RIDGING PERSISTENT OVER THE WRN US WITH DRIER AIR             
FILTERING INTO THE REGION ALONG NWLY FLOW. PESKY SC HANGING IN                  
TOUGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. LATEST RUC                  
THOUGH SEEMS TO INDICATE IMPROVEMENT THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN AND              
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND WK WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR               
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR LOW                    
RECORDS FOR GRI/HSI/EAR. MOS GUID LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL FOLLOW.             
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESS AND A DRY TROP LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THRU                 
PERIOD FOUR. MOS GUID ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE THRU THE REST OF THE                
PERIODS AND WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW. AS FOR THE EXT FCST...CONTINUED              
DRY ON TUES AND WED WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD               
POPS TO WED NITE AND THURSDAY AS THE MRF PUSHES THRU A COLD FRONT               
THRU THE PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC LOW PRESS OVER SRN CANADA.              
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
DEE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLBF 101840  ne                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
320 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
...EXPANSE/DURATION OF CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN CWFA FIRST CONCERN             
WITH TEMPS TO FOLLOW...                                                         
11U-3U FOG PRODUCT SAT IMG DEPICTS DECK OF SC ADVANCING S FROM SE               
SD INTO NE NEBR. ASOS OBS PUT BASES BETWEEN 3000-6000 FT. SC                    
FORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF H85 DEWPT DEP OF < 4 DEGREES AND              
CAA. RUC BRINGS SC SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CWFA THIS MORNING BEFORE                 
DISSIPATING. WITH THIS IN MIND...FOR NOW...I WILL SPLIT FORECAST TO             
MENTION BKN CLOUDS SOMEWHERE N OF I-80 THIS AM BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY            
IN THE AFTN. MOSTLY SUNNY REST OF CWFA S OF I-80.                               
MODERATE HEIGHT RISES TO OUR WEST ON 00Z ANALYSIS WITH ALL MODELS IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING HIGH AMP RIDGE. THIS PUTS OUR CWFA UNDER NW             
FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME LOW/MID LVL CAA SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH AS               
TROUGH DIGS TO OUR EAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE                  
RESULT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD LOWS MENTIONED FOR                  
TONIGHT IN ZONE PACKAGE. WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM GUID AND NO                 
REASON TO. HIGHS TODAY MOST AREAS 75-80. RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ACROSS             
CWFA ARE...EAR/52...GRI/51...HSI/50. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND                  
LIGHT EAST WINDS SHOULD MAKE THESE READINGS VERY APPROACHABLE.                  
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SETUP FOR SUNDAY HOWEVER WITH RETURN OF SE WIND              
FLOW BUT LIMITED LLM. SOME AFTN CU/SC SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL BE               
SHALLOW SO WILL MOSTLY SUNNY ALL AREAS. SFC DEWPTS WILL REMAIN LOW              
WITH MID 50S ABOUT THE LIMIT THROUGH 12Z MON. ADEQUATE ISENTROPIC               
LIFT ACROSS CWFA ON MON AS PER AVN...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF              
AROUND 90 MB SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM FORMING SO I WILL ELIMINATE           
IT FROM THE EXTENDED. SOME VIRGA POSSIBLE BUT INVERTED SOUNDING                 
SHOULD PREVENT ANY PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. DRY THROUGH                   
EXTENDED WITH NO CHANGE TO TEMPS.                                               
.GID...NONE.                                                                    
PURDY                                                                           
 ne                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
850 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRE FRONTAL TROF SITUATED ACROSS THE                 
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THIS IS HELPING TO FIRE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...CHANCES FOR THUNDER               
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE              
MOUNTAINS...AND IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST WARD.            
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE RAH CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY                  
BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH.                                                   
RADAR SHOWING LARGE BUT BROKEN AREA OF PRECIP EXTENDING BACK INTO               
SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY. BOTH RUC AND MESOETA INSIST THAT PRECIP WILL                
OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SINCE PRECIP IS BREAKING UP A BIT AS IT             
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST...DON/T THINK THERE WILL BE A STEADY RAIN                  
EVERYWHERE ALL NIGHT. SO WILL MOST LIKELY LEAVE FORECAST AS IS WITH             
GOOD CHANCE POPS...OR PERHAPS RAISE TO LIKELY ACROSS JUST THE                   
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE                  
RIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH FRONT STALLED IN THE VICINITY.                  
.RDU...NONE.                                                                    
MRD                                                                             
********** NOTICE OF CHANGE JULY 15, 1999 AT 900 AM*****************            
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION(SFD) BECOMES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION (AFD)           
AFOS/NOAA WEATHER WIRE ID      RDUSFDRDU       RDUAFDRAH                        
WMO/FAMILY OF SERVICES ID      FXUS72 KRDU     FXUS62 KRAH                      
********************************************************************            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 110037  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
836 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
ACTIVITY HAS PRETTY WELL SKIRTED THE MHX CWA SO FAR...WITH RDU AND              
AKQ MUCH BUSIER WITH EVENING CONVECTION. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY HAS               
FOCUSED ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE VA/NC                    
BORDER...WHILE THE ACTUAL COLDFRONT IS STILL BACK NEAR THE VA/WV                
BORDER. GIVEN CAPES OVER 3100 J/KG AND LI'S TO -7 ON THE 00Z MHX                
SOUNDING...FEEL OUR HI CHC POPS ARE STILL GOOD FOR THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS. RUC-II SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING AROUND                         
09Z-12Z...WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW/NE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH FRONT            
SLOWING TO A CRAWL AND HI MEAN RH'S IN PLACE...EXPECT A GOOD SHOT A             
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE SUNDAY.                                                     
COASTAL...WINDS GUSTING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WELL OFFSHORE AND            
TO AROUND 25 KT ALONG THE COAST. ETA 10M AND RUC-II BOUNDARY LAYER              
WINDS SHOW DIMINISHING TREND TOWARD MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THAT              
WORDING. NEXT SHIFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP SCA.                                 
.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.                                                  
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 101830  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1041 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A WARM AIR                
MASS IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH +18 DEGREE AIR AT 850 MB          
ACROSS NC AT 12Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC WILL                
ALSO AID IN THE HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RISE INTO            
THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AREAS. WILL CONTINUE HEAT ADVISORY                  
ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE               
105 TO 110 RANGE. WITH WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...THE ATMOSPHERE              
REMAINS WELL CAPPED AND MHX SOUNDING SHOWED A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH             
K INDEX OF ONLY 9. ALTHOUGH THE GSO SOUNDING WAS MORE MOIST...WITH              
THAT MOISTURE HEADING THIS WAY...DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP            
TODAY. THE MAIN RAIN THREAT WILL BE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT...WHICH WAS            
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA EXTENDING BACK THROUGH SRN OH AT 13Z...               
APPROACHES. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIP WELL AHEAD OF                   
IT...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME              
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A TROF IN EXTREME WRN NC...BUT DO NOT EXPECT            
THAT AREA OF PRECIP TO PROGRESS EWD INTO OUR AREA. LATEST RUC                   
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR IN ERN NC THRU 00Z AND TROF AXIS DOES                 
NOT PROGRESS VERY FAR EAST. THEREFORE WILL DROP MENTION OF PRECIP               
FROM FCST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                                   
CWF: WINDS CURRENTLY IN 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA....AND                
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SW TODAY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN              
APPROACHING FRONT AND OFFSHORE HIGH.                                            
.MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS.                                                  
       HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON COASTAL PLAIN                               
       (NCZ 029-044-079-090-091)                                                
RSB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 101416  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
845 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
...LEFTOVER SHRA AND TEMPS/CLOUDS CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS...                  
KMVX 88D SETTLING DOWN AS SHRA/-TSRA COURTESY OF NORTHERN VORT MAX              
AND ASSOCIATED COOL POOL ALOFT WEAKEN WITH LESSENING OF SUN ANGLE.              
JUST A FEW LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND CWA WITH                 
PROBABLY NOTHING MORE THAN BRIEF WIND GUST TO 20 MPH AND POSSIBLE               
SPRINKLE. IR LOOP SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER APPROACHING INTL BORDER              
ALONG I-29 CORRIDOR AND BREAKING UP AS IT DOES SO. CONVECTION RIGHT             
UNDER COOLEST POOL IN MANITOBA HAS SEVERELY WEAKENED AS WELL DURING             
LAST HOUR...SO WILL NOT MENTION PRECIP IN THIS UPDATE.                          
SFC ANALYSIS YIELDS APPARENT WEAK TROF PUSHING ACROSS NORTHERN RRV              
INTO NWRN MN WITH MORE NW WIND BEHIND IT AN W AHEAD. POCKET OF                  
HIGHER TDS IN NRN RRV ACCOMPANIES FEATURE...WITH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR            
IN SE CWA. SLOW MOVEMENT TO FEATURE MEANS ACCOMPANYING SCT HIGH                 
BASED CU/LOW AC WILL FLOAT ACROSS CWA FOR PART OF NIGHT...WITH                  
MESO-ETA/RUC INDICATING HIGHEST H7 MOIST BAND IN WESTERN CWA...BUT              
THIS PLACEMENT SUSPECT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING VORT TOO FAR                
WEST ALL DAY.                                                                   
OVERALL BELIVE PCLDY WILL HANDLE FCST BETTER IN PARTS OF CWA ATTM               
INSTEAD OF CLEAR WITH UPSTREAM DEBRIS AND AFORMENTIONED CIRCULATION             
TO TRACK ACROSS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS IN NORTH AND NORHTEAST ZONES MAY               
NOT FALL AS QUICKLY AS LAST NIGHT DUE TO INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER               
AND POCKET OF HIGHER TD/S FORECAST TO LINGER MUCH OF NIGHT...SO WILL            
ADJUST FEW SPOTS SLIGHTLY UPWARD. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED.                    
AMENDED ZONES OUT BY 920 PM CDT.                                                
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
SOROKA                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 102245  nd                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE INCLUDES TEMPS AND PCPN CHANCES. 12Z RUC          
INITIALIZED VORT MAX TOO FAR WEST TRACKING FEATURE THROUGH WEST/CENTRAL         
NODAK WHERE IN REALITY EXTRAPOLATION FROM SW LOOP WOULD HAVE IT                 
TRACKING SE THROUGH FA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG RUC AND ACTUAL TRACK             
YIELD LI'S FROM -1 TO -2...CAPES <500 J/KG AND JPWATS LESS THAN AN              
INCH. WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SHRA WITH VORT AND COLD POOL ALOFT               
HOWEVER WITH VORT TRACKING OVR SFC HIGH...ABOVE INDICIES AND LACK OF SFC        
RELECTION WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER           
INDICATE AN INVERTED V SOUNDING SO ANY SHRA THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE            
CAPABILITIES OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. OVERALL TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON              
TRACK AND NO SIG CHANGES PLANNED.                                               
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFGF 100825  nd                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
945 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
ALREADY SENT ZONES TO UPDATE SOME TEMPORAL WORDING AND POPS.                    
ALSO...RUC AND MESO ETA SHOWING MID LEVEL RH VALUES REMAINING HIGH              
OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT WHICH IS                       
CORRESPONDING WELL WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.  THEREFORE...WORDED            
MORE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND RAISED MINS A TOUCH IN SOME OF THE EASTERN               
ZONES.                                                                          
HOWIESON                                                                        
FCSTID = 44                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 110231  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1020 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA             
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 69...WITH ANOTHER SMALL AREA AROUND CREEK AND            
OKMULGEE COUNTIES...AND OVER PUSHMATAHA COUNTY.  THIS IS ALL AHEAD              
OF THE UPPER TROF WHICH THE RUC PROGS TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE                
EAST.  THE TROF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS             
TO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDFRONT                
PROGGED TO BE IN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  850 FRONT WILL CONTINUE               
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BUT WILL ALSO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY THE              
END OF THE DAY.  GIVEN THE UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE AND 850 MB                 
BOUNDARIES...EXPECT THE CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER MOST              
OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROF LINE.  BY                
EARLY AFTERNOON THAT LINE SHOULD BE FROM AROUND GRAND LAKE TO                   
HENRYETTA.  WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT             
LINE WITH LOW OR NO POPS TO THE NORTHWEST.  SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS                
CLOUD LINE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT VERY SLOWLY.  DO               
NOT EXPECT THAT CLEARING LINE TO REACH TULSA UNTIL MID AFTERNOON OR             
LATER.  HIGHEST TEMPS WILL THEN BE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND IN            
THE CLEARING OVER OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES.  WILL MAKE SOME                    
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND TEMPS GIVEN THAT REASONING.                             
FCSTID = 2                                                                      
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KTSA 101004  ok                                      

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
500 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
PROBLEM(S) OF THE DAY:                                                          
POPS                                                                            
TEMPERATURES                                                                    
RADAR LOOP SHOWS A LEFTOVER MESOLOW JUST NW OF TUL ALONG THE COLD               
FRONT.  06Z RUC IS BY ITSELF AMONG THE MODELS IN FORECASTING HEAVIEST           
PRECIP THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MESOLOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY           
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TUL AREA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE              
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD WASH OUT DURING             
THE DAY WITH THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT BECOMING THE PRIMARY               
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ASSIGNED HIGHEST FIRST PERIOD POPS TO THE           
MLC-FSM AREAS...WHICH IS WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BE DURING PEAK                  
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  TEMPS TODAY ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO CLOUD              
COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR...BUT GENERALLY WENT WITH THE COOLER AVN              
MOS...EXCEPT ARND IDB WHERE MORE ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF               
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.                                                       
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND           
TURN UP STATIONARY ACROSS NRN TX ON SUN.  WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF POPS            
TONIGHT AND SUN MRNG SOUTH OF I-40.  BEHIND THE FRONT...AN                      
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA. CLEAR             
NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING 50S TO THE COLDER VALLEYS OF NW AR            
FROM SUN THROUGH TUE MRNGS.                                                     
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...REMOVED POPS FROM ALL BUT FAR SE OK ON               
WED. MRF BRINGS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE SW GULF AT THAT                   
TIME...WHICH USUALLY KEEPS CONVECTION SUPPRESSED ACROSS OUR AREA.               
HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS ON MON AND TUE TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMUP WITH             
90S MAKING A RETURN TO MOST PLACES ON WED.                                      
FCSTID = 22                                                                     
TUL   83  63  84  62 /  50   5   0   0                                          
FSM   84  67  84  63 /  60  20   5   5                                          
MLC   83  65  86  63 /  60  20   5   5                                          
BVO   83  60  82  59 /  30   0   0   0                                          
FYV   81  61  80  58 /  50  10   5   0                                          
IDB   87  68  85  66 /  40  40  20  10                                          
BYV   81  60  81  57 /  50  10   5   0                                          
MIO   82  60  81  59 /  50   5   5   0                                          
MKO   82  64  84  62 /  50   5   0   0                                          
F10   81  64  85  63 /  50   5   0   0                                          
HHW   86  67  85  66 /  40  40  20  10                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
AR...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
--------------------                                                            
EXPERIMENTAL OUTPUT:                                                            
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS: SLIGHT CHANCE HEAVY                   
RAINFALL                                                                        
NGM CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
ETA CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
AVN CONFIDENCE:  8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
FCST CONFIDENCE: 8 ON A SCALE OF 0 TO 10                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KOUN 100927  ok                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
805 EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                         
21Z RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK VORTICITY MAX OVER CWFA THROUGH THE              
NIGHT. CWFA ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF SOME GOOD Q CONVERGENCE            
SHOWING UP IN THE 700 MB TO 300 MB LAYER. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN               
THE LOWER 70S AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING BOTH IN THE             
CWFA AND UPSTREAM...I WILL LEAVE OVERNIGHT FORECASTS PRETTY MUCH AS             
THEY ARE. I MAY CHANGE WORDING TO SHOWERS LIKELY AND THUNDERSTORMS              
POSSIBLE...SINCE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM APPEARS TO BE DROPPING             
MORE INTO GULF COAST STATES RATHER THAN ADVECTING THIS WAY.                     
I MAY ALSO ADD SOME FOG WORDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS WHERE GOOD           
RAINS HAVE OCCURRED...BUT WILL MAKE THAT DECISION JUST BEFORE                   
ISSUANCE...BASED ON LATEST TRENDS OF TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS.                     
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RBN                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 101914  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
234 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
LINE OF TSRA MOVING THRU UPSTATE AND CLT METRO AREA ATTM. HAD SOME              
GUSTY WINDS...GMU PEAK WIND 30...AND HEAVY RAIN WITH THE LINE. MORE             
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE SFC FNT NOW MOVING INTO WRN                 
CWFA. RUC SHOWS ATMOS TO REMAIN UNSTABLE THIS EVE EVEN AFTER THE                
TSRA LINE PASSAGE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT.                       
LONGER TERM...LIKE AVN/ETA SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FNT. FNT STALLS               
ACROSS THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVES MOVE THRU FORMING SFC            
LOWS ALONG THE FNT. JUICY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWFA THRU              
MONDAY. ALL THIS LEADS TO LIKELY PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP              
CONVECTIVE WORDING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL CHANGE TO RAIN WITH                 
POSSIBLE TSRA IN SRN SECTIONS MONDAY AS WEDGE LIKE SFC RIDGING SETS             
UP WITH NELY FLOW. HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY AND FLOODING COULD BECOME           
A THREAT...BUT WOULD BE A PROBLEM LATER IN THE PERIOD AFTER PRECIP              
HAS BEEN FALLING FOR A WHILE.                                                   
COOLING TREND FCST LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE NUMBERS CLOSE AND                       
REASONABLE. HIGHS MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH FOR MONDAY BUT DO NOT WANT             
TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC YET.                                                      
AVL 64/75/63/73 6656                                                            
CLT 71/82/67/78 6656                                                            
GSP 70/82/67/78 6656                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 101807  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1048 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVING THRU NC MTNS ATTM HAVE HELD TOGETHER QUITE                
NICELY AS THEY MOVED IN FROM TN. ATMOS UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS MORNING              
ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS             
PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS TN. LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE                 
AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM MOVING THRU TODAY. COMPOSITE CHART SHOWS BEST              
CHANCE FOR SVR WILL BE TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK                
GOOD SO MAY HAVE TO UP POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.                                   
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME HAS TAKEN A DRUBBING THE PAST TWO DAYS               
AND WILL NOT USE AGAIN TODAY ESPECIALLY SINCE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FULL            
SUN. FULL SUN TEMPS IN MID 90S. CURRENT FCST TEMPS ARE IN THE                   
BALLPARK BUT WILL CHECK LATEST OBS FOR POSSIBLE REVISION.                       
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
RWH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 101402  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
950 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
RUCII SHOWS ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALL MODELS            
KEEP MIDLANDS AND CSRA WITH BASICALLY NO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS          
SOME LIFT IN THE UPSTATE THOUGH. MODELS DO DEVELOP SURFACE TROUGH OVER          
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. LIKE SOME LOW POPS             
THOUGH..20% IN COUNTIES BORDERING GSP CWA AND LESS THAN THAT CLOSER TO          
CAE AND AGS. RUCII/ETA SHOW ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH        
LIS -6/-8 AND CAPES 2400-2500. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER AT           
1.60-1.80 INCHES BUT STILL AGREE WITH POPS OF PREVIOUS FORECASTER. WINDS        
ARE UP A BIT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS            
SOME TO 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER HIGHS ONE CAT WITH BETTER            
MIXING AND EXPECTED CLOUDS DURING COURSE OF AFTERNOON.                          
WRKZFP IN A FEW MINUTES.                                                        
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
TTH                                                                             
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1037 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
LTL OF SIGNIFICANCE GOING ON TDA.  SFC AND NR SFC RIDGE OF HIGH                 
PRESSURE WL SHIFT INTO CWA THIS AFTN...AND TAKE RESIDENCE THIS                  
EVNG. FCST 8H TMPS WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN...AND REALLY ONLY 1 TO               
1.5C DIFFERENCE IN ETA/NGM/RUC...WITH NGM/RUC WARMEST.  TEMP GRADIENT           
STRONGEST IN ETA...BUT STILL ONLY ARND 2C E TO W.  BALANCE OF LOW               
LVL FLOW STRENGTH E TO AIX MIXING...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TMPS W...WL             
NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF DIFF OVR CWA THIS AFTN.  TMPS MAY BE A HALF              
CAT ON HIGH SIDE FOR FAR ERN CWA BASED ON MPX/OAX RAOBS...BUT WL                
LEAVE BE.  WHILE OFF A BIT ON DIRECTION LATE THIS MORNING...TREND IN            
WINDS IS ON TRACK.  VERY FEW CU ALL THAT SUPPORTED BY RAOBS SO A                
MOSTLY SUNNY OR PC WOULD HANDLE WELL..SO...EXPECT NO UPDATES OTHER              
THAN A NWR FRESHEN.  ENJOY!                                                     
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 101504  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
850 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
SHWRS AND TSTMS ARE PUSHING SEWD INTO AL. SAT PIXS SHOW BRKS ACRS               
KY AND NW TN. SUGGEST MENTIONING PTCHY DNS FOG FOR THE ZNS FOR AREAS            
THAT ARE RAIN FREE. IR SAT PIXS SHOW STORMS FIRING UP IN SE AR. THE             
MESOETA AND RUC SHOWS SFC WAVE FORMING ON CDFNT. MESOETA HAS LOW                
ACRS N-NE AL WHILE RUC HAS IT AT SE AR AT 09Z. RUC HAS DEEPER MEAN              
RH MSTR (90%) ACRS WRN 2/3 OF TN BUT MESOETA KEEPS THE MEAN RH AT               
70-75% BY 09Z SUN. IF THESE MDLS ARE RIGHT EXPECT MORE STORMS TO                
ENTER TN TNGT FROM THE WEST. I BELIEVE THE 01Z STREAM LINE ANALYSIS             
AND ADAP PRODUCTS SHOW THE MAIN FNT ALG NRN AL AND NRN MS AND INTO              
LOW OVR SE AR. THIS WUD ACCOUNT FOR THE FLAREUP OF STORMS RIGHT                 
NOW IN AR. RADAR ECHOES SHOW A SLIVER OF MSTR FROM NW MS TO                     
LEXINGTON TN. FOR RIGHT NOW...LET'S DROP POP TO 30 PCT FOR NRN TIER             
OF ZNS AND MENTION PTCHY DNS FOG. KEEP 60 PCT FOR SRN ZNS. WL SEND              
WRKZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                           
$$                                                                              
END/ORCHANIAN                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 110105  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
1035 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                     
SHRA/FEW TSRA ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FA LATE              
THIS MORNING. ACTION OCCURRING WELL AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH IS IN                  
POSITION NEAR OH RIVER. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF              
INSTABILITY IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING                    
AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION IS ARE POPS TOO HIGH FOR NE TN/SW VA. IT                
WOULD APPEAR SO BUT...RUC INDICATES A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY              
FOR THIS AREA LATER IN AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOR                   
PRECIP SO WILL LEAVE LIKELY POPS GOING. WILL NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR             
SRN VLY/SRN PLATEAU AS SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALREADY ONGOING AND                
MAY CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG LOW-LEVEL TROF. WONDER IF MID 80S ARE                
EVEN TOO OPTIMISTIC FOR MAXES TODAY CONSIDERING WHAT HAPPENED ON                
FRIDAY WITH A BIT OF CU BUT...THIS TIME OF YEAR IS DOES NOT TAKE                
MUCH TO BREAK WELL INTO THE 80S SO WILL LEAVE ALONE.                            
20                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KMEG 101432  tn                                      

WAKEFIELD FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
925 AM EDT SAT JUL 10 1999                                                      
SFC CDFNT STILL WELL NW OF CWFA THIS MRNG...ALTHO ASSOCD BAROCLINIC             
PCPN BAND MUCH CLOSER TO RGN. XPC THIS BAND TO MAKE GRDL SEWD                   
PROGRESS DURG DAY. BUT...NOT BEFORE MAX HEATING. THUS...XPC SOME                
CNVTN WITH BNDRY/PRE-FNTL TROF LTR THIS AFTN/TNGT. IN LOOKING AT 12Z            
SOUNDINGS...AGREE WITH SELS ABOUT SVR POTENTIAL. WHILE WAL/MHX                  
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FAIRLY UNSTBL...VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW A LOT OF              
WLY/WNWLY DOWNSLOPE ABV 1ST GATE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST CHCS FOR                   
DEEPENING OF LOLVL MSTR NOT GREAT. THUS...ACHIEVING SGFNT DESTBLZN              
WILL BE A DIFFICULT TASK. 06Z RUC ALSO SUGS SOME DRYING OF LOLVL                
DEWPTS...ALSO REFLECTING SHALLOW LOLVL MSTR DEPTH. BOTTOM LINE...               
CURRENT POP FCST APPRS ON TRACK.                                                
WITH LOTS OF SUN...SPCLY ERN/SERN AREAS...TEMPS XPCD TO WARM INTO               
THE 90S MOST AREAS. XPCD DROP IN SFC DEWPTS WILL LMT AREA OF HI                 
VALUES AOA 105. CURRENT NERN XTNT OF HEAT ADVY MAY BE OVERDONE...               
BUT WILL MAKE NO CHGS ATTM. ADVY WILL BE DROPPED WITH AFTN ISSUANCE             
ANYWAY.                                                                         
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS BEYOND 1ST PD. HWVR...SLOWER MOVEMENT OF SFC             
FNT DEPICTED BY LTST MDLS SUGS CLRG WILL BE DLAD TIDEWATER AREAS.               
WILL HANDLE THAT LTR.                                                           
XTND...IF LTST MRF IS CORRECT...COULD BE A FAIRLY WET WEEK ACRS MUCH            
OF RGN. ELONGATED TROF REMAINS W OF AREA...AND RIPPLES OF ENERGY                
LIFT NEWD ALONG WOBBLING BNDRY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO 2 WEEKS AGO...               
WHEN SGFNT RNFL OCCURRED OVER CWFA AT A VERY OPPORTUNE TIME. STILL IN           
DIRE NEED OF RAIN CNTRL/WRN/NRN VA...AND NC. IF MRF CORRECT...THESE             
AREAS COULD BENEFIT THIS TIME. LET'S HOPE SO. WILL MAKE NO CHGS TO              
CURRENT XTNDD WITH THIS PKG...BUT WILL INCORPORATE LTST MDL GUIDANCE            
INTO AFTN PKG.                                                                  
.CWF...WINDS CONT SLOWLY INCRG. SCA MRGL...BUT NO NEED TO CHG ATTM.             
.AKQ...SCA CHES BAY S OF NEW POINT COMFORT...AND ATLC CSTL                      
       WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.                       
       HEAT ADVY...VAZ070>100-NCZ012>017-030>032-102.                           
SAMMLER                                                                         
 va