AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO                                              
300 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ROUNDING TOP OF HIGH                   
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS QUITE                
NOTICEABLE ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. NWRN HALF OF THE            
FORECAST AREA PRETTY MUCH UNDER THIS MID-LAYER OF MOIST AND VERY                
UNSTABLE AIR ATTM. MEANWHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE MTNS              
HAS REMAINED DRY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S.                  
AIRMASS EVEN DRIER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE WHERE DEW               
POINTS ONLY IN THE 30S. WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING OVER THE              
MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS HOUR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT E/NEWRD OVER              
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLATTEVILLE                 
PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 10KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AT THIS HOUR...BUT LOW               
LEVEL WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. LAPS AND             
RUC INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES IN THE 600-1200 J/KG RANGE IN                      
LARIMER...WELD AND BOULDER COUNTIES...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES            
EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF +40F...SMALL HAIL               
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS A POSSIBILITY WITH HIGH BASED                  
STORMS MOVING OFF THE NRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS NEXT 3-4 HOURS.                 
OTHERWISE STORMS SHOULD END IN ALL BUT THE FAR NERN PLAINS BY                   
MIDNIGHT. WHEREAS ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE              
NIGHT IN THE N-CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN                    
RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE UNDER THE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL                      
MOISTURE.                                                                       
MONDAY...LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A CARBON COPY OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH A SFC              
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN NE TONIGHT...IS                   
FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS OF CO DURING               
THE DAY. DOESN/T LOOK ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW               
NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE                 
AFTERNOON WITH CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THETA-E FIELDS              
SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS              
DURING THE AFTERNOON CAUSING SFC BASED CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND            
2000 J/KG BY 00Z/TUE. SHOULD SEE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION/T-STORM                 
ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME DRAPED               
ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS TOMORROW               
SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME AS THOSE TODAY.                                        
.LONG TERM...MON NGT-WED...A PERSISTENT UPR RDG OVR THE CNTRL                   
RCKYS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS SUBSIDENT.  HWVR THE CIRC ARND                     
THE UPR RDG WILL CONT TO ENTRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE FM MEXICO                    
AND SPRD IT NWD INTO THE AREA.  ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WILL BE                    
PRESENT FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS MAINLY DURING EACH                     
AFTN AND EVE.  A SURGE OF HI PRES MOVG SWD ON THE PLAINS WED                    
WILL COOL THE AIR MASS SUM AND PSBLY PROVIDE BOUNDARIES FOR                     
ENHANCED TSTM DVLPMNT.  TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A SMIDGEN WARMER                    
THAN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE VALUES WUD SUGGEST.                                      
IN EXTENDED PRD...THU-SUN...MDLS MAINTAIN UPR RDG OVR CNTRL RCKYS.              
GFS CONTS TO SHW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MSTR OVR AREA BFR DRIER AMS                 
ON NWLY FLO ALF SHUNTS PLUME FARTHER TO S BY SUN.  SURGE OF HI                  
PRES OVR PLAINS ON THU AND FRI SHUD ENHANCE PCPN.  WILL RAISE                   
POPS TO CHC ON BOTH DAYS.  TEMPS WILL BE NR SEASONAL NORMS EXCEPT               
A LTL COOLER ON THU AND FRI ON PLAINS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.BOU...NONE.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BAKER/GARD...WFO BOULDER                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
752 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...MOIST EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL       
ALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE TO ADVECT SLOWLY WEST/SOUTHWEST AND KEEP                 
TEMPERATURES UP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SINK                 
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...RAISED                    
MINIMUM TEMPEARTURES A CATEGORY OR SO MAINLY IN THE EAST. KEPT A                
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS THE NORTH AS EVENING CONVECTION                    
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO INSTABILITY               
AXIS NORTH OF SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.                                              
MWM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 225 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                         
DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH             
WEAK WAVES/PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOW WARM TO MAKE THE MAXES.               
SATELLITE SHOWING FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SLIGHT             
TENDENCY TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS           
STARTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC.             
FLOW IS BECOMING MORE BLOCKY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL.                 
NUMBER OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 500 MB RIDGE. ONE IS                  
ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING               
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THESE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WAVES. AT 700 MB...           
WAVE IS STUCK IN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.                               
WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND                 
DIVIDES AREA INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALVES. AIR MASS DRIES                
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS ABOVE IT                    
COOLER AND MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE NOT            
MOIST ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER           
RIDGE. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEANS...THE UKMET/ECMWF LOOK TO           
BE DOING THE BEST. RUC IS CAPTURING SHORTWAVE DETAILS VERY WELL                 
FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET/GFS. MODELS DID NOT HAVE HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH              
WITH THE GFS/RUC DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF.                    
AT LOW LEVELS...RUC DOING BETTER INITIALLY ON THE WIND FIELD WITH               
THE UKMET DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DID               
BETTER ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...WILL GO WITH A           
BLEND OF RUC/GFS/UKMET FOR THIS FORECAST.                                       
TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MET/NAM HAVE DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLE FROM                 
RECENT RUNS. RUC IS DOING VERY WELL WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND GFS             
IS VERY MUCH LIKE IT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND MID LEVEL                
LIFT WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THEN CURVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THREE.               
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN                 
YESTERDAY. SO IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WILL NOT BE A LOT.                       
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND MAINLY OVER THE                     
NORTHWEST SECTION. ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD                   
SUPPORT HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST                
CORNER. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FURTHER              
SOUTH AND EAST THAT YOU GO.                                                     
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS IN              
ALL ASPECTS. WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE                  
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WILL ALSO TEND TO GO TOWARD THE                  
WARMER GUIDANCE.                                                                
WEDNESDAY...NEW GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP MAXES FOR THIS DAY AS                    
APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED. BASED ON UPPER RIDGE POSITION WOULD               
AGREE WITH THAT. SO WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GO WARMER AND              
DRIER.                                                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS             
MODEL RUN AND BETWEEN THE MODELS. HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES               
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS INCREASES               
THE HEIGHTS RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO IT HAS              
HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER US PLUS HAS RIDGE CENTER FURTHER WEST THAN ECMWF.           
CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER                   
NORTH...LIKE THE GFS A LITTLE BETTER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE                
PERIOD MODELS REVERSE ROLES WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ON TO HIGHER                 
HEIGHTS OVER THE GFS AND PREFER THAT PER PREVIOUS REASONING.                    
THEREFORE...WILL GO MORE GFS EARLY THEN ECMWF LATER.                            
NOW TO THE DETAILS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE                 
SLOWER AND WOULD AGREE WITH THIS BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THIS COULD           
KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WAS INITIALLY WANTING TO           
LOWER POPS. HOWEVER...NEIGHBORS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.                   
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT FRONT COULD BE EVEN SLOWER WITH                      
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION IN FOR NOW.  FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. RETURN FLOW               
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY. ALSO HAVE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTEN UP AS WELL.             
HOWEVER...THESE SUBTLE DETAILS WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES BEFORE THEN.              
PLUS IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FRONT IS SLOWER...THE ABOVE                    
SCENARIO WILL ALSO GET PUSHED BACK. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW...             
AND LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP THEIR EYE ON THIS PERIOD. THEN RIDGE BUILDS           
IN PER ECMWF WITH GFS BREAKING DOWN RIDGE TOO MUCH. RIDGE NOT ONLY              
BUILDS BUT ELONGATES TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY                      
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY.            
MEX/GFS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE                     
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BUT TEND TO GO NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE.                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
225 PM MDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH            
WEAK WAVES/PESKY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HOW WARM TO MAKE THE MAXES.               
SATELLITE SHOWING FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A SLIGHT             
TENDENCY TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS           
STARTING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF AS IT DIGS TOWARD THE EASTERN PACIFIC.             
FLOW IS BECOMING MORE BLOCKY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL.                 
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE 500 MB RIDGE. ONE IS                   
ROTATING THROUGH IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING               
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THESE LOOK TO BE FAIRLY STRONG WAVES. AT 700 MB...           
WAVE IS STUCK IN THE RIDGE OVER EASTERN COLORADO.                               
WEAK BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME AND                 
DIVIDES AREA INTO NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST HALVES. AIR MASS DRIES                
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS ABOVE IT                    
COOLER AND MORE MOIST THAN YESTERDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS ARE NOT            
MOIST ENOUGH WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER           
RIDGE. OVERALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEANS...THE UKMET/ECMWF LOOK TO           
BE DOING THE BEST. RUC IS CAPTURING SHORTWAVE DETAILS VERY WELL                 
FOLLOWED BY THE UKMET/GFS. MODELS DID NOT HAVE HEIGHTS HIGH ENOUGH              
WITH THE GFS/RUC DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF.                    
AT LOW LEVELS...RUC DOING BETTER INITIALLY ON THE WIND FIELD WITH               
THE UKMET DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE NAM. ECMWF/UKMET/GFS DID               
BETTER ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...WILL GO WITH A           
BLEND OF RUC/GFS/UKMET FOR THIS FORECAST.                                       
TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE THE FOCUS FOR                    
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MET/NAM HAVE DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLE FROM                 
RECENT RUNS. RUC IS DOING VERY WELL WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND GFS             
IS VERY MUCH LIKE IT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS AND MID LEVEL                
LIFT WOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE                    
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THEN CURVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THREE.               
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MOIST THAN                 
YESTERDAY. SO IF ANYTHING DOES FALL IT WILL NOT BE A LOT.                       
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...BOUNDARY HANGS AROUND MAINLY OVER THE                     
NORTHWEST SECTION. ORIENTATION OF UPPER RIDGE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY              
AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WOULD                   
SUPPORT HAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST                
CORNER. WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THE WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FURTHER              
SOUTH AND EAST THAT YOU GO.                                                     
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS IN              
ALL ASPECTS. WILL ONCE AGAIN PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE                  
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WILL ALSO TEND TO GO TOWARD THE                  
WARMER GUIDANCE.                                                                
WEDNESDAY...NEW GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP MAXES FOR THIS DAY AS                    
APPROACHING FRONT HAS SLOWED. BASED ON UPPER RIDGE POSITION WOULD               
AGREE WITH THAT. SO WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL GO WARMER AND              
DRIER.                                                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE FROM PREVIOUS             
MODEL RUN AND BETWEEN THE MODELS. HOWEVER SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES               
BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS AND FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS INCREASES               
THE HEIGHTS RIDGE OVER THE AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. ALSO IT HAS              
HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER US PLUS HAS RIDGE CENTER FURTHER WEST THAN ECMWF.           
CONSIDERING CURRENT FLOW PATTERN AND MAIN STORM TRACK FURTHER                   
NORTH...LIKE THE GFS A LITTLE BETTER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE                
PERIOD MODELS REVERSE ROLES WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ON TO HIGHER                 
HEIGHTS OVER THE GFS AND PREFER THAT PER PREVIOUS REASONING.                    
THEREFORE...WILL GO MORE GFS EARLY THEN ECMWF LATER.                            
NOW TO THE DETAILS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE                 
SLOWER AND WOULD AGREE WITH THIS BECAUSE OF UPPER RIDGING. THIS COULD           
KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WAS INITIALLY WANTING TO           
LOWER POPS. HOWEVER...NEIGHBORS HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.                   
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT FRONT COULD BE EVEN SLOWER WITH                      
SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION IN FOR NOW.  FRIDAY                   
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. RETURN FLOW               
DEVELOPS AS SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY. ALSO HAVE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE. MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTEN UP AS WELL.             
HOWEVER...THESE SUBTLE DETAILS WILL CHANGE MANY TIMES BEFORE THEN.              
PLUS IF WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FRONT IS SLOWER...THE ABOVE                    
SCENARIO WILL ALSO GET PUSHED BACK. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW...             
AND LET LATER SHIFTS KEEP THEIR EYE ON THIS PERIOD. THEN RIDGE BUILDS           
IN PER ECMWF WITH GFS BREAKING DOWN RIGDE TOO MUCH. RIDGE NOT ONLY              
BUILDS BUT ELONGATES TO THE WEST WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY                      
SUBTROPIPCAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY.           
MEX/GFS WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE                     
TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH BUT TEND TO GO NEAR TO ABOVE GUIDANCE.                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LATE UPDATE AS RESULT OF SVR CONVECTION LATE THIS EVENING.                      
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FROM NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG WITH WEAK             
WAA AT 850 MB ENOUGH TO FINALLY ERODE WEAK MID LVL CAP THIS EVENING.            
THE RESULTING CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS            
OF UPR MI THIS EVENING AS RUC/LAPS DATA INDICATES ELEVATED CAPES OF             
2000-2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 35-40KT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR                   
PROFILES FAVOR MOSTLY MULTICELL SVR THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR                    
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND AS SVR THREATS. WET-BULB            
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 12KFT.                                                  
LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO GENERALLY END BY 09Z AS DNVA AS SHORTWAVE                
SLIDES SE OF THE AREA AND DNVA AND RDGG REPLACES IT FROM THE                    
WEST.                                                                           
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOKED GOOD SO NO CHANGES MADE THERE.                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS A H5 RIDGE WITH 596 DAM HEIGHTS CENTERED                
OVER CNTRL PLAINS POKING INTO MONTANA AND SASKATCHEWAN. STRONGER MID            
LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER FM TROUGH OFF PAC NW             
(NEXT SIG WX MAKER MID WEEK) INTO CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND SE            
INTO THE UPR LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS FLOW IS               
SLIDING INTO NCNTRL LK SUPERIOR. MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ON SOUTHERN              
FRINGE OF SHORTWAVE INTO UPR MI GENERALLY 30-40KT PER 12Z INL RAOB              
AND RUC. SFC FLOW OVER CWA IS MAINLY FM SW ALTHOUGH WINDS RIGHT                 
ALONG LK SUPERIOR ARE TRYING TO BECOME ONSHORE...DUE TO DAYTIME                 
HEATING AND WHAT MAY BE AN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION AS SHOWN             
BY THE W LK SUPERIOR BUOY SHOWING A                                             
NNE WIND.                                                                       
ALTLHOUGH MUCAPE VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH 1500-2000J/KG PER RUC THE 17Z            
TAMDAR SOUNDINGS FM CMX AND SAW ARE VERY CAPPED AND OTHER THAN A                
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND H85...VERY DRY. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATE            
WE WOULD NEED TO ACHIEVE TEMPS NEAR 90F TO BREAK THE CAP AND GET                
CONVECTION TO FIRE. SO FAR...TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW-MID              
80S DUE TO LEFTOVER AC/CI BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION THAT WAS OVR NW LK            
SUPERIOR EARLIER. THUS FAR...ONLY A FEW SUB 40 DBZ BLIPS ON RADAR E             
OF MARQUETTE (DEVELOPED IN LK SUPERIOR BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE                  
OFFSHORE OF ALGER CO) WHILE MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING              
FAR SE OF HERE OVR FAR NE LWR MI WHERE 18Z SOUNDING FM APX INDICATED            
MORE MOISTURE IN H85-H75 LAYER AND LESS CAPPING.                                
IT IS FEASIBLE THAT MOST CWA MAY END UP NOT SEEING ANY CONVECTION               
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR ABOVE H85 ON THE TAMDAR              
SOUNDINGS AND BACK INTO MN AHEAD OF TROUGH MAY END UP TOO TOUGH TO              
OVERCOME. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF H85 THETA-E ADVECTION NOSING INTO SW            
UPR MI WITH SFC TD NEAR 70F IN THAT AREA...AND BLYR CONVERGENCE DUE             
TO WIND OFF LK SUPERIOR MAY STILL HELP POP SOME CONVECTION...IF                 
TEMPS CAN REACH UPR 80S BTWN 4 AND 6 PM THIS AFTN. 0-6KM SHEAR BTWN             
30-40KT COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IF STORMS WOULD DEVELOP DUE TO THE             
HIGH INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR APPROX THE WEST                
HALF OF CWA WITH A 30 POP INTO THE E WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS ARE                
PRESENT AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE H85-H75 LAYER. NAM            
INDICATES MOST CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVR SCNTRL ZONES.             
TROUBLE IS PRIMARY AXIS OF LLJ IS ORIENTED FM W TO E INTO N LWR                 
MI...AND THINK THIS IS WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD BE. WILL               
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT FM ROUGHLY IMT TO ERY IN CASE THIS            
ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD FORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER N.                              
IN ANY CASE...ALL CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY DAYBREAK MON AS             
HIGH PRES OVR SCNTRL CANADA BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO AREA. DESPITE SOME              
HIGH CAPE VALUES PROGGED BTWN 500-2000J/KG (GREATEST S CNTRL) ON                
MON...IT SEEMS LIKE MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANTICYCLONIC              
FLOW WITH FLOW OFF LK SUPERIOR WILL DETER PCPN. TEMPS...NOT A                   
TREMENDOUS COOL DOWN WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO ONLY AROUND                     
+18C...SO INLAND AREAS BACK INTO THE UPR 80S SEEM LIKELY...SLIGHTLY             
COOLER TEMPS AROUND 80 NEAR LK SUPERIOR. LIKELY WILL BE STILL STUFFY            
AS DEWPOINTS ARE VERY SLOW TO FALL OFF WAY UPSTREAM INTO S MANITOBA.            
TD SHOULD FALL OFF SOME MON NIGHT INTO 50S AS CENTER OF HIGH IS                 
OVERHEAD.                                                                       
THIS HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SE LATER MON NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR            
FOR ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON TUE AS SRLY FLOW RETURNS. H85 TEMPS RISE           
TOWARD +20C IN THE W HALF OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE             
ENOUGH TO ALLOW BLYR WINDS TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FM S SO WILL               
PROBABLY SEE SOME LK BREEZES DEVELOP OFF LK SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN IN                
AFTN. CURRENT LOW TO MID 80S NEAR THE SHORE AND UPR 80S TO AROUND 90            
INLAND LOOKS FINE. WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURN FLOW DEVLOPS LATER TUE             
NIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON FAR N PLAINS. SW H85 JET TO             
30 KT AND H85-H7 LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0C/KM MAY SUPPORT SCT ELEVATED              
CONVECTION LATE TUE NIGHT OVR ECNTRL MN/W CNTRL WI AND PERHAPS INTO             
FAR SW UPR MI. NAM QUITE ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE IDEA WHILE GFS KEEPS             
TIGHTER H85 GRADIANT FAR ENOUGH SW TO KEEP POPS OUT OF CWA. CANADIAN            
GLOBAL SHOWS NO QPF. NO POPS ATTM...BUT DID INCREASE SKY COVER ALONG            
BORDER LATE TUE INTO WED AM.                                                    
.EXTENDED...GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT                   
PATTERN FOR THE WED-SUN PERIOD. EXPECT TROUGH OFFSHORE OF PAC NW                
COAST TO PRESS INTO SW CANADA MON-TUE AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING            
ACROSS ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUCKS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EAST. MEDIUM RANGE             
MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE S TIER OF                 
CANADA THROUGH WED...THEN SLIGHTLY DIG INTO UPR LAKES THU/FRI. ALL              
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA WHICH IS PREFERRED BY HPC. UNTIL THE                
TROUGH ARRIVES WED NIGHT-THU...H85 TEMPS TOWARD 20C AND SW WINDS FM             
SFC-H85 SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME TEMPS TO AROUND 90F ON WED. BEST RAIN               
CHANCES THIS WEEK ARE TIED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THU. AS MID SHIFT             
NOTED 00Z RUNS ARE FASTER WITH LEAD FRONT...PROGGING IT INTO CNTRL              
UPR MI AS EARLY AS 12Z THU. A SECONDARY FRONT WITH COOLER AIR MOVES             
THROUGH LATER THU INTO THU NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD BE                 
DURING THIS TIME. UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THOUGH...TEMPS MAY RISE               
WELL INTO THE 80S EVEN ON THU...EXCEPT ON KEWEENAW WHERE WINDS                  
SHIFTING TO THE NW WILL COOL THINGS SLIGHTLY. HUNG ON TO POPS INTO              
FAR E THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN HIGH PRES AND DRY/COOLER WX BUILDS              
IN LATER FRI INTO SAT. 00Z GFS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH NEXT WAVE                    
CROSSING SCNTRL CANADA SUN. WILL KEEP SUN DRY FOR NOW AS OTHER                  
MODELS AND EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AS AMPLIFIED. SEEMS THAT              
BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN WOULD BE VERY LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT SO                
WILL LEAVE FCST DRY.                                                            
COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1141 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS             
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FORECAST AREA.                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE                        
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THIS                
RIDGE. THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN U.P.                
INTO LAKE HURON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN                    
ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL                     
MINNESOTA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS LAKE                    
SUPERIOR AND DRAGGING A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN AN            
AREA OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE.                  
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT                
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE             
WILL BE MODERATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                         
HOWEVER...THE LAPSE RATE WILL PRODUCE MUCAPE OF AROUND 3K-4K                    
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN 850MB THETA-E RIDGE WILL ALSO STRETCH              
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. QPF FROM ETA12 IS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO                
PRECIPITATION WHEREAS RUC INDICATES HEAVY RAINS. I THINK RUC IS OVER            
DOING THE INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL. STILL CONDITION STILL LOOK                  
QUESTIONABLE FOR THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...IF               
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD DEVELOP               
AND SOME MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HIGH WINDS AND HAIL.                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1128 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.UPDATED...                                                                     
I WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS                
OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA (NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96) THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN OUT FLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH            
FROM NRN WI TOWARD CNTRL LK MICHIGAN AN SHOULD GET TO LDM BTW 1 PM              
AND 2 PM. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE             
THERE AND THE RUC FORECAST OF 850 MB LI VALUES NEAR -2C ONE COULD               
NOT RULE OUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE A STORM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE                   
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 1000/500MB THICKNESS GRADIENT.  GIVEN THE RUC               
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 35 KNOTS OVER NRN LWR THIS               
AFTERNOON (PUTS THE GRR CWA IN DIVERGING LOW LEVEL WINDS)AND THE                
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TOWARD THE UPPER PENINSULA AND THE             
700 TO 300 MB DPVA IS NEGATIVE (NVA OR DOWNWARD MOTION) IT IS A                 
STRETCH BUT EVEN SO A SLIGHT CHANCES SEEMS GOOD TO ME.                          
$$                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
247 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY                
TONIGHT...THEN EMPHASIS IS ON TEMPERATURES.                                     
ETA AND GFS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE ETA A BIT FASTER                 
WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT TONIGHT. GFS WAS FOLLOWED.                                
THE SURFACE AND 850MB BOUNDARIES ARE NEARING OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS             
AFTERNOON...AS WINDS ARE VEERING TO WEST TO NORTHWEST AS SEEN IN                
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA VWPS. CU FIELD DEVELOPING THIS                    
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE YET TO GET GOING. MODIFIED                   
SOUNDINGS FROM GFS AND RUC SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION(CIN)                 
AROUND 800MB. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AS TEMPERATURES                  
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE              
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MLCAPE IS 2000-2500J/KG AHEAD OF THE                    
BOUNDARIES. LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF OF MPX AND DLH VWP'S SHOW              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 25KT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT                
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND LIFT                  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARIES AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT           
NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POP'S DUE TO THE CIN. IF STORMS DO GET                      
GOING...SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND THE                
HIGH MLCAPE'S.                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND             
TUESDAY AS THE FLOW RETURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW               
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW            
LEVEL BOUNDARIES MOVE EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.                         
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MID 80S TO              
LOWER 90S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALSO BE WARM AND WE           
INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER MOS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG             
AND EAST OF A CRANE LAKE TO AITKIN LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL             
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO                   
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR                 
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.                                                     
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MELDE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...SO                
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. FOR TONIGHT CONTINUED RAIN THROUGH THE              
EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW THIS                    
EVENING...DID NOT WANT TO CUT THINGS OFF AT 00Z. RAISED TEMPS A                 
DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE LOWER 70S. GENERALLY TRIED TO STICK TO                   
GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS. RUC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE                 
TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. MODELS SHIFT THE             
AXIS WEST SLIGHTLY...BUT NO REAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT              
DAY OR SO. THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE                
FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MONDAY.              
WINDS WERE WEAK ON ALL LEVELS...INSTABILITY ALSO REMAINS WEAK. PW               
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...PERIODS OF               
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FFG                  
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE...HOWEVER SHOWERS HAVE             
PRODUCED 1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER                
AMOUNTS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE              
URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BECOME            
MORE WIDESPREAD. CLOUDS KEPT A FEW LOCATIONS FROM WARMING                       
TODAY...BUT MOST AREAS WERE NEAR 90...EXPECTING MORE OF THE SAME FOR            
MONDAY. KEPT TEMPS NEAR 90 FOR ALL GROUPS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO             
THE CLOUDS TO MAKE ALL AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY             
OVERNIGHT. SOLID CLOUD DECK NEVER MOVE INTO THE AREA...SAW GENERAL              
AFTERNOON CU...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND COME BACK LATE              
MORNING. A FEW TWEAKS...BUT NO REAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.            
LONG TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED             
FOR THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND THE SFC                  
REFLECTION WILL KEEP DEEP MOISTURE (2 IN + PWS) OVER THE EASTERN                
HALF OF THE CWA. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE NOW IS THAT THE MODELS              
ARE HOLDING ONTO THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL               
ACTUALLY BUILD A LITTLE AND SHIFT EAST. AS THIS OCCURS THE UPPER                
SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO THE SE US BY LATE WEEK                   
INSTEAD OF RETROGRADING INTO TX. WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN? TUE-WED               
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO WITH RESPECT TO POPS...ESPECIALLY                
EAST 1/2. THIS IS NO CHANGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR            
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THU IS MORE OF A CHALLENGE AS THE BUILDING UPPER              
RIDGE RIDGE MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION SUPPRESSED IF IT MOVES IN                   
FASTER. WHAT I HAVE DONE IS KEEP POPS GOING AS IS FOR THU AND STAYED            
WITH THE 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR ONE MORE PERIOD. WITH INCREASING                  
CONFIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL INFLUENCING OUR WX MORE ON FRI-SUN I             
HAVE STARTED A DRYING TREND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP BELOW GUIDANCE               
FOR POPS A BIT.                                                                 
AS FOR TEMPS...TUE-WED WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMO DUE TO               
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. I HAVE ONLY INCREASED MAX TEMPS A             
BIT FROM THE PREV FORECAST SO I WOULD NOT BE SO DIFFERENT FROM THE              
12Z GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...ALONG AND E OF THE MS RIVER WE WILL SEE              
HIGHS BETWEEN 88-90 WITH 90-92 W OF THE RIVER. LESS CLOUDS AND                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THU-SUN. CURRENT                
FORECAST WAS RIGHT ON AN DIDN'T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS.                           
THE ONLY OTHER CHANGE I MADE WAS TO START A MORE CLIMO FAVORABLE SKY            
COVER TREND BEYOND THU. BASICALLY PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND              
MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. IF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN THE                 
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT LINGER LIKE THEY HAVE BEEN.                     
/CME/                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       73  90  73  90 /  40  60  40  60                                  
MERIDIAN      71  89  72  88 /  50  80  50  80                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/36                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
530 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
I HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EARLY                
EVENING FORECAST FOR THE KIRKSVILLE, MACON, AND LANCASTER AREAS IN              
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL WIND PROFILERS                
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.             
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ABOVE                   
700 MB. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE IN IOWA DRIFTS                   
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL               
DIMINISH, AND I WOULD ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY              
AFTER 02 OR 03 UTC.                                                             
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
214 PM...                                                                       
VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED              
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.                    
ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.                
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE                  
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING               
WEEK. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FLEETING CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION               
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK WAVES TOP THE UPPER                        
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MINOR IMPULSES             
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO                    
TEMPERATURES...WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL REGIME CONTINUING.                          
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL            
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A BIT OF A CHANGE AS THE DOMINATE RIDGE IS                 
PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BY SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CANADA.               
THE FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY                         
THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI                  
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM IS...THE COLD POOL              
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. MID RANGE MODELS SEEM              
TO AGREE ON THIS AS THEY DISPLAY THE BAROCLINICITY DECREASING ALONG             
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SINK INTO OUR                 
AREA. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THE TAIL OF THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH            
FORCING TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND                        
SATURDAY...RANGING AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE                 
THROUGH CANADA IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER                   
SOUTH...POSSIBLY GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE OTHER SIDE            
OF NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                
SCHMIT/CUTTER                                                                   
&&                                                                              
210 AM CDT SUN...                                                               
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT COUPLE OF                
DAYS WITH ONLY CONCERN BEING ANY SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND                
MOVING SE ACROSS MO. THE FIRST CONCERN IS THIS MORNING. NAM/GFS SEEM            
TO BE FALSELY INITIALIZING A SHORTWAVE IN NRN IOWA WITH THE MODELS              
SHIFTING THE SHORTWAVE SE INTO NERN MO THIS MORNING.                            
REGARDLESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND              
WEST CENTRAL IOWA IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305-310K                 
SURFACE. THIS AREA IS ALONG A STRONG GRADIENT OF STEEP MID LEVEL                
LAPSE RATES. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY ESE.                       
HOWEVER...THE NAM SUGGEST THAT THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD MAINLY BE             
CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. ONLY WEAK ISENTROPIC             
LIFT ON THE 310K SURFACE IS NOTED NEAR THE IOWA BORDER. GIVEN THE               
CURRENT TREND...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS                  
CROSSING THE IOWA BORDER THIS MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER              
WEAK AS THE INSTABILITY IS CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS.                          
AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFTS DIMINISHES TO OUR NORTH LATER THIS                      
MORNING...THE MID CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THEY STREAM                  
SOUTH...THEREFORE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE              
LEVELS ACHIEVED YESTERDAY.                                                      
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WILL                  
LIKELY SEE AC DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE            
CWA AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUND THE RIDGE. ISENTROPIC LIFT CONSIDERABLY            
WEAKER SUNDAY NIGHT TO OUR NORTH.  THEREFORE...SEE LESS POTENTIAL               
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO SAG SOUTHEAST INTO NWRN MO.                       
OTHERWISE...HAVE MADE LITTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGE IN AFTN TEMPS THROUGH            
MONDAY AS H8 TEMPERATURES STAY RELATIVELY STEADY. HAVE MADE MINOR               
CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AS PER REQUEST OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES.  GFS             
A LITTLE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED                 
CLOUDS...WINDS...TEMPERATURES AND POPS A LITTLE TO FIT NEW                      
TIMING.                                                                         
DB                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
1015 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FAIRLY BIG CHANGE TO THE FIRST PERIOD CONTINUITY             
AS AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BRUCE PENINSULA OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO            
DURING THE PAST HOUR. CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING AND CLOUD TO GROUND                
LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FEATURE.                           
THE STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE TIGHTEST H8 THERMAL RIBBON OVER THE            
UPPER GREAT LAKES...RIGHT WHERE PREVIOUS CONVECTION DID FROM THE                
AFTERNOON. SFC TD'S OF 65 TO 70 ARE FEEDING INTO THIS FEATURE FROM              
THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT WILL TRACK IT INTO SOMEWHAT            
DRIER AIR. ALSO FAVORING THE CONVECTION FOR OUR REGION IS THAT WE               
ARE NOW IN THE DIURNALLY FAVORED TIME FOR THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY. AS             
FAR AS HELP FROM THE MODELS...ALL GUIDANCE IS DOING POORLY WITH                 
THIS...INCLUDING THE RUC.                                                       
WILL THUS ADD CHC POPS TO SITES FROM BUF TO ROC TO COVER THE                    
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THE ACTIVITY SLIDES SOUTHEAST.            
$$                                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
GREAT SUMMER DAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA AS WE REMAIN IN SLOT BETWEEN              
EXITING SHORT WAVE TO EAST AND DYING MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST. WEAK SFC             
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SCATD CONVECTION MONDAY BUT UPPER RIDGE                    
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER LAKES THEREAFTER WITH WARMING            
AT ALL LEVELS...RESULTING IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THE               
TUES THROUGH THURS PERIOD...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF CONVECTION. NEXT              
COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR LATER FRIDAY...WITH PLEASANT WX RETURNING FOR            
NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                      
12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK BOUNDARY/MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE                  
DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN UPPER FLOW FROM UPPER LAKES ON MONDAY...BUT               
BOTH A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN 00Z RUN...FOCUSING ON LK ONTARIO                  
REGION. CURRENTLY CARRYING 30 POPS AND DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE                  
DROPPING...BUT WITH INCREASING SW FLOW EXPECT BUF AREA TO BE                    
SHADOWED IN AFTERNOON AND WILL PLAY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. IN ANY CASE              
WILL HOLD ONTO BROADBRUSH 30 POPS FOR THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN             
HUMIDITY. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S...GENERALLY L-M 80S                
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 850 TEMPS OFFSET BY A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS.                 
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS OVER US BY TUES AFTER THIS RIPPLE              
EXITS...AND ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER SPELL OF HOT WX WITH                     
INCREASING HUMIDITY FROM TUES-THURS. 850 TEMPS OF 17C TUES RISE TO              
19C WED/THURS...SO WILL GO WITH 85-90 BUT COULD EASILY SEE SOME                 
LOWER 90S...ESP WED/THURS. WILL HOLD POPS AT 20 ON TUES FOR ANY                 
LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT DROP TO 10-15 RANGE WED WITH GOOD CAPPING.           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH              
MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY...THEN LOWER 80S WITH THE GREATER            
RISK OF SHRA/TSRA ON FRIDAY. WENT MAINLY WITH HPC EXTENDED                      
TEMPS/CLOUDS/POPS WHICH HAVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POSSIBLE UNTIL THE             
END OF THE WEEK...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY              
TIMED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON TEMPS...THUS RISK OF STRONGER STORMS.                 
LOWER 80S AND DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF                   
WESTERN NEW YORK AS SPILL FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE                     
SOUTHEAST FROM THE BRUCE PENINSULA NEAR THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF                 
GEORGIAN BAY. SOME FREQUENT LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME. BIGGEST QUESTION            
IS IF THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO            
DRIER AIR AS THEY HAVE EARLIER TODAY. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER THEY                
COULD REACH IAG...BUF AND ROC OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS               
WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTIVE            
ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.CLIMO...                                                                       
BUF'S MAX SO FAR OF 83 TODAY ASSURES CITY OF ITS WARMEST JUNE-JULY              
COMBO IN HISTORY (EDGING OUT 1949). JULY'S 75.0 AVG WILL MAKE IT                
WARMEST IN 50 YRS AND 3RD WARMEST EVER. THIS FOLLOWS JUNE WHICH WAS             
WARMEST IN 39 YRS AND 4TH WARMEST EVER. IMPRESSIVE STUFF. ROC'S                 
NUMBERS ABOUT 2 DEG COOLER...SO NO RECORD TERRITORY THERE BUT STILL             
IN TOP FIFTH OF SUMMERS SO FAR. MORE ON THIS IN CLMS MONDAY.                    
&&                                                                              
.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                         
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.MARINE...NONE.                                                                 
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...RSH                                                                    
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/CLIMO...MCLAUGHLIN                                          
LONG TERM/MARINE...HIBBERT                                                      
AVIATION...SAGE                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
945 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS..ESPECIALLY             
NORTH HALF...AND TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS TONIGHT INTO MON.                          
MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER FAR SE                     
COUNTIES. THIS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH MESO-ETA PROGS OF BEST LOW               
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EDGING E FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO THE                
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. THUS...DECREASED POPS OVER THE                
NORTH HALF TO SMALL CHANCE (WHICH STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH) TO LIKELY              
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED POCKETS              
OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE BEEN            
SPARED HEAVY DOWNPOURS PAST 6 HOURS. DRIER DEWPOINTS PROGGED BY                 
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TO ADVECT INTO REGION APPEARS TO BE TOO                     
AGGRESSIVE OR TOO FAST. DEWPOINTS ACROSS VA RANGE FROM LOWER 70S                
EAST TO THE MID 60S FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS 2-3                 
DEGREES HIGHER OVERNIGHT/MON ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.                      
CONSEQUENTLY...RAISED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT IN THE NW PIEDMONT.                   
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING               
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER ONE HAS TO WONDER IF            
MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH DRYING CONSIDERING RATHER WEAK                
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW. IF MODELS TO BE BELIEVE...LITTLE IF ANY                     
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL NC MON. HAVE MORE FAITH IN                 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO             
SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 215 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                 
THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM               
THE SAVANNAH BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT NE                 
THROUGH THE RAH CWA 20-02Z THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP PLOTS CONTINUE              
TO SHOW A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT              
WITH CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RUC               
SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEP SATURATION WITH A SHARP INVERTED 850-700 MB               
TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA SW-NE AND A PERTURBATION RUNNING UP THE                
TROUGH 21-03Z.  DEEP CONVECTION/MCS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW UP THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST IN THE LOWER COASTAL PLAIN AND THERE                 
MAY BE A SHADOWING EFFECT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY.            
EVIDENCE IN NEAR TERM TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SUPPORT KEEPING A FLASH            
FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING              
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS NE. TRENDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS               
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL ALIGNMENT FOR THIS EVENING.                            
DYNAMICS WITH A JET AXIS SHIFT EAST BY 06Z...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE              
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA               
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WILL BE              
USED FOR LOWS TONIGHT 67-72 NW-SE.                                              
MON-TUE...SFC-850 FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC MID MONDAY.               
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE              
GFS WET AND NAM DRYING THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT POP GRIDS                
COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AND SHOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS IN THE SE HALF ARE FAVORED.  A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                
WILL BE ADDED FOR MON NGT AND TUE UNDER MOSTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY               
SKIES. MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER                
80S...AND 88-92 ON TUE.  LOWS 67-71.                                            
WED-WED NGT...HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC-850 RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE            
NW.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS...BUT ETA SHOWS             
AN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  ISOLATED LATE DAY              
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO              
EXCLUDE FOR NOW UNTIL IT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  NAM LOW LEVEL                 
THICKNESS IS 20M GREATER THAN GFS...BUT A COMPROMISE AND ADDITIONAL             
SUNSHINE WED WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER WED              
THAN TUE.  LOWS WED NGT...68-72. -RFG                                           
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE FLOW REMAINS              
WEAK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND            
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS ENHANCES              
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...RAISING POPS TO A            
CHANCE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 85             
TO 90. -DGS                                                                     
AVIATION...                                                                     
EXPECT VFR CIGS NORTH TO MVFR CIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY            
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN WILL LOWER                   
VIS/CIGS TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FAY WILL HAVE THE BEST                   
CHANCES OF SEEING MODERATE RAIN AND LOWER VIS/CIGS. DRIER AIR IS                
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR             
AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO LOW CIGS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR LIKELY            
BEING REACHED AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. WITH DRIER              
AIR BUILDING IN...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW             
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. -DGS                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WSS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
343 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THIS EVENING AS MESO LOW MOVING                
ALONG THE FRONT SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. LATEST RUC SHOWING WEAK                
SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE...HELPING TO ENHANCE             
CONVECTION. LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG                
CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...FOR NOW PATCHY FOG SHOULD SUFFICE.                          
MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS                 
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SOME NUISANCE FLOODING. SURFACE BOUNDARY IS               
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION TOMORROW BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT            
WEAKER. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE FOUND SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH                    
HEAVIEST PRECIP OUTSIDE THE FA. BOTH NAM AND CANADIAN IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT ON THIS FACT.  BOTH OF THESE MODELS DID A GOOD JOB                    
FORECASTING PRECIP LOCATION AND AMOUNTS FOR TODAY...SEE NO REASON               
NOT TO TRUST THEM FOR TOMORROW. KEEPING HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH QPF               
VALUES UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. BASED ON THIS DO NOT SEE THE NEED              
TO ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW.                                              
SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO               
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. CONTINUE TO FAVOR            
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER NAM/CANADIAN OVER THE 12Z GFS WITH RESPECT TO               
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY. BELOW CLIMO HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT                
LOWS NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                        
REMAINS OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ILM AREA THROUGH             
FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY RETURNING NORTH NEXT WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH               
DEVELOPS. DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL                 
LIMIT POPS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD AS                
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. INCREASED MOISTURE RESULTS IN BETTER PRECIP            
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO ARE EXPECTED                   
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                                                    
&&                                                                              
MARINE...                                                                       
CURRENTLY A MESOSCALE LOW IS WORKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST WITH ITS              
CENTER NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF WINYAH BAY. WINDS AT THE                    
CARO-COOPS BUOY SUN2 HAD A MAX OF 16 KTS IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE              
RADAR IS SHOWING A 30 TO 35 KT AT 1000 FT. REPORTS ON THE COAST                 
INDICATE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL MENTION                  
STRONGER WIND AND SEAS WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE ONGOING CONVECTION             
BUT AS MESO LOW PULLS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION ANTICIPATE SEAS TO            
SETTLE DOWN A BIT.                                                              
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AS STALLED FRONTAL                    
BOUNDARY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST              
PERIOD. WAVE WATCH SHOWING SEA OF 2 TO 3 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE            
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA            
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. AS THE CASE THE              
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...THE COASTAL TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE ANOTHER            
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...WHILE INLAND AT KFLO PATCHY DENSE               
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALL TERMINALS COULD SEE ADDITIONAL             
CONVECTION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HEATING OF            
THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR AT               
TIMES IN/NEAR CONVECTION...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KFLO                
WITH THE FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
AVIATION...JAQ                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
215 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
THIS EVENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM               
THE SAVANNAH BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTRAPOLATION TAKES IT NE                 
THROUGH THE RAH CWA 20-02Z THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP PLOTS CONTINUE              
TO SHOW A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT              
WITH CONFLUENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. RUC               
SHOWS AN AXIS OF DEEP SATURATION WITH A SHARP INVERTED 850-700 MB               
TROUGH BISECTING THE CWA SW-NE AND A PERTURBATION RUNNING UP THE                
TROUGH 21-03Z.  DEEP CONVECTION/MCS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW UP THE                   
SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR EAST IN THE LOWER COASTAL PLAIN AND THERE                 
MAY BE A SHADOWING EFFECT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY.            
EVIDENCE IN NEAR TERM TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS SUPPORT KEEPING A FLASH            
FLOOD WATCH...MAINLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING              
UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS NE. TRENDS IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS               
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL ALIGNMENT FOR THIS EVENING.                            
DYNAMICS WITH A JET AXIS SHIFT EAST BY 06Z...BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE              
AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA               
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY.  CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WILL BE              
USED FOR LOWS TONIGHT 67-72 NW-SE.                                              
MON-TUE...SFC-850 FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINS TO EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NC MID MONDAY.               
NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE              
GFS WET AND NAM DRYING THE AIR FROM THE NORTH. CURRENT POP GRIDS                
COMPROMISING BETWEEN THE TWO AND SHOWING A LINGERING CHANCE OF                  
SHOWERS IN THE SE HALF ARE FAVORED.  A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS                
WILL BE ADDED FOR MON NGT AND TUE UNDER MOSTLY OR VARIABLY CLOUDY               
SKIES. MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER                
80S...AND 88-92 ON TUE.  LOWS 67-71.                                            
WED-WED NGT...HIGH PRESSURE AT SFC-850 RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE            
NW.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS...BUT ETA SHOWS             
AN UNSTABLE LAPSE RATE WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  ISOLATED LATE DAY              
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CHANCE SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO              
EXCLUDE FOR NOW UNTIL IT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  NAM LOW LEVEL                 
THICKNESS IS 20M GREATER THAN GFS...BUT A COMPROMISE AND ADDITIONAL             
SUNSHINE WED WOULD SUGGEST MAX TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER WED              
THAN TUE.  LOWS WED NGT...68-72. -RFG                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED. THE FLOW REMAINS              
WEAK OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND            
A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS ENHANCES              
THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE LIFT...RAISING POPS TO A            
CHANCE. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE                  
AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR CLIMO...LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS 85             
TO 90. -DGS                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXPECT VFR CIGS NORTH TO MVFR CIGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY            
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN WILL LOWER                   
VIS/CIGS TO IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FAY WILL HAVE THE BEST                   
CHANCES OF SEEING MODERATE RAIN AND LOWER VIS/CIGS. DRIER AIR IS                
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AS THE SHEAR             
AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO LOW CIGS TONIGHT...WITH LIFR LIKELY            
BEING REACHED AT ALL TAF SITES. FOG SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. WITH DRIER              
AIR BUILDING IN...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR A LITTLE FASTER TOMORROW             
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. -DGS                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-                       
083>086-088-089 UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY.                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
LONG TERM...DGS                                                                 
AVIATION...DGS                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
944 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RAH CWA THE REMAINDER OF            
TODAY.                                                                          
FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...                                                         
RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST             
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE               
LOWER TO MID LEVELS.  AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND                 
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT.             
THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND             
INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS                
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN                     
APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.                                                               
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR                 
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND             
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE                 
LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN            
THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE               
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE               
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL                    
MOISTURE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75.             
ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE                 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM.  MSAS SURFACE THETA-E             
VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE                  
TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE              
DAY.  HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE                     
LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND            
500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL               
FLOODING.  WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD               
WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A                  
GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A               
LENGTHY 48 HOURS.                                                               
BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND                   
700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE              
RIDGING.                                                                        
THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE                     
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER                 
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER            
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB                
THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND                  
CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD                 
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST...                    
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN              
THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
IS MOST DISTANT.  MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY              
TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO                 
FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY.                                
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME            
GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN.  WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT              
THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY              
LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A                  
GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE              
NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE              
STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED                  
INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST                    
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE                 
TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS                
MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND               
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN             
THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE                  
FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT                  
LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF              
THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED.  FOR THE SAME                 
REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS              
WELL.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE                 
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.  MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION             
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST.  GFS FORECASTS SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING                
WORK WEEK.  MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE              
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE                  
EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST                     
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL              
LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN                   
STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER              
15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON                 
(~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
904 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
RAOBS SHOW DEEP SATURATION ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...A MOIST             
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND WEAK FLOW IN THE               
LOWER TO MID LEVELS.  AREA VWPS SHOW A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND                 
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER AND ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS NEAR 10 THSD FT.             
THE RUC PROJECTS A WEAK LOW AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE SOUTHERN             
PIEDMONT AT 12Z DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SANDHILLS AND             
INTO THE NE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.  12Z DATA SET ALOFT ALSO IS                
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AT JET LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHERN                     
APPALACHIANS AND IMPLIED SHARP ASCENT OVER THE REGION WITH                      
DIVERGENCE ALOFT.                                                               
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND             
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO HIGH LIKELY OR                 
CATEGORICAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND             
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE RAH CWA.  MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD            
REMAIN MODERATE 78-84...BUT DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH...IN THE                 
LOWER TO MID 70S. -RFG                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 302 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH 850MB                 
CONVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND A SHEAR AXIS IN A WEAKNESS IN            
THE RIDGE AT 500MB OVERHEAD.  PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE               
00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWING 850MB DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS...AND THE               
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUING TO SHOW HIGH MID-LEVEL                    
MOISTURE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO JUST SHY OF 75.             
ONGOING SHOWERS TOWARD THE TRIAD IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER                  
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE THETA-E ON MSAS ANALYSIS...AND ALREADY                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OR INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE                 
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF KCAE AND SOUTHWEST OF KILM.  MSAS SURFACE THETA-E             
VALUES ARE HIGH PARTICULARLY FROM KRDU SOUTH THROUGH KFAY...AND                 
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW SHOWERS MOVED IN OR DEVELOPED DURING            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND              
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN ZONES AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE                
I-95 CORRIDOR AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM FORECAST THE SURFACE                  
TROUGH AND THE BEST UVV AND CONVERGENCE IN THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE              
DAY.  HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST IN THOSE                     
LOCATIONS AND ANY HEAVY SHOWER...MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH WITH 700MB AND            
500MB WINDS ONLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...COULD PROVIDE FOR LOCAL               
FLOODING.  WILL MENTION IN THE HWO...AND WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD               
WATCH AS STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ON THE KRAX WSR-88D SHOWS A                  
GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER A               
LENGTHY 48 HOURS.                                                               
BOTH MODELS ACTUALLY FORECAST GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 850MB AND                   
700MB THETA-E VALUES TOWARD THE TRIAD TODAY WITH INCREASED SURFACE              
RIDGING.                                                                        
THE TREND OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM IS TO SLOWLY SINK THE                     
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SOUTH AND USHER DRIER AIR IN THE MEAN OVER                 
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER            
SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY...AND DESPITE THE NAM FORECAST OF AN 850MB                
THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WEAK UVV AT BEST...AND                  
CONVERGENCE ALOFT...LIGHT WINDS FROM 700MB THROUGH 500MB SHOULD                 
RESULT IN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO OVERALL MOISTURE AT LEAST INTO                 
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  NOT WANTING TO DRY THINGS OUT TOO FAST...                    
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN              
THE TRIAD WHERE MOISTURE IN THE LEAST AND WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE             
IS MOST DISTANT.  MOS POPS HAVE REALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ESPECIALLY              
TOWARD THE TRIAD AND AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO                 
FORECAST A DRY DAY TOWARD GSO AND INT ON MONDAY.                                
MOISTURE DIMINISHES AT ALL LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AND WOULD EXPECT SOME            
GOOD CLEARING OVERNIGHT THEN.  WILL NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT              
THIS POINT...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS FORECAST AT 925MB AND RELATIVELY              
LOW MOISTURE PATCHY FOG COULD OCCUR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE            
WATER VALUES ARE LOWEST LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...BUT A                  
GRADUAL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST LATE TUESDAY INTO                   
WEDNESDAY.  WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE EARLY TUESDAY...BUT THE              
NAM FORECASTS A LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE              
STATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  IF THE NAM VERIFIES...WITH LIFTED                  
INDICES AROUND -3C OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST                    
VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE                 
TROUGH COULD SLIDE SOUTH AROUND THE 700MB RIDGE AND AFFECT AREAS                
MAINLY FROM ROXBORO THROUGH THE TRIAD LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND               
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH SURFACE RIDGING IN             
THAT AREA AND...THROUGH COORDINATION WITH RNK...WILL LEAVE THE                  
FORECAST THERE DRY FOR NOW.                                                     
TEMPERATURES CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST...EXCEPT                  
LOWERED MINS A CATEGORY ON AVERAGE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY PART OF              
THE WORK WEEK DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR EXPECTED.  FOR THE SAME                 
REASON AND WITH A LITTLE MORE SUN RAISED MAXES ABOUT A CATEGORY AS              
WELL.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE                 
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.  MANY THANKS TO NEARBY OFFICES FOR COLLABORATION             
EARLY THIS MORNING.                                                             
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
NO CHANGE TO THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST.  GFS FORECASTS SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE TO BE THE RULE FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING                
WORK WEEK.  MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE              
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE                  
EXPECTED CONDITIONS HANDLED WELL AT THIS POINT.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL LOWER DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS MOIST NORTHEAST                     
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SHOWERS WILL              
LINGER THROUGH 07Z...THEN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN                   
STRATUS AND FOG DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE. VSBYS WILL REBOUND AFTER              
15Z...HOWEVER LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON                 
(~18Z)...THEN BECOME MVFR. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.                 
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RFG                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
953 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.UPDATE /OVERNIGHT/...CONVECTION AGAIN DYING DOWN TONIGHT WITH LOSS             
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FLOW IS NOW GENERALLY EASTERLY...SO DO NOT              
FORESEE A LOT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST UNTIL CLOSER TO            
DAYBREAK MONDAY WHEN WIND VEERS TO SOUTH. RUC INDICATES SOME                    
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE IN THE BL ALONG THE COAST WHICH SHOULD                
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HRS. SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE                 
CONVERGENCE AXIS UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT DO NOT FORESEE A              
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT BASED ON THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND                    
RELAXING FLOW EXPECTED. WILL REALIGN POPS TO REFLECT THIS IDEA WITH             
THE LAND AREAS REDUCING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND COASTAL/OFFSHORE                  
INCREASING A TAD. FOG STABILITY INDEX INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF            
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ESP B/C OF THE COVERAGE OF RAIN TODAY AND               
EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS AND                
TEXT PRODUCTS. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING THINKING. TRANQUIL CONDS...OUTSIDE             
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...TO REMAIN ACRS THE MARINE AREA THRU                    
MIDWEEK. DISSIPATING FNTL BNDRY OFFSHORE TO BE REPLACED BY HIGH                 
PRESSURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE SOLID ONSHORE FLOW. WIND SPEEDS            
TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT.                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS REFLECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR THIS MORNING             
FOLLOWED BY RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO                
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MID-MORNING AND ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING            
THE DAY. WILL TOY WITH POSSIBLE PREVAILING WX GROUP ON 06Z TAFS.                
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JRL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
917 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WATER VAPOR AT 1Z DEPICTS A S/W OVER THE UPSTATE...SLOWLY DRIFTING              
EAST. RUC SHOWS THAT THE VORT WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.        
CURRENTLY...THE VORT IS MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE                  
EASTERN PIEDMONT. THIS BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE THIS                    
EVENING AND EARLY MON MORNING. LATEST FLP AND MAV RUNS INDICATES                
THAT COVERAGE WILL BECOME SCT AFTER 6Z...WILL KEEP DECREASING TREND             
IN THE GOING FORECAST GRIDS.                                                    
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE BL WILL BECOME NEARLY                  
SATURATED AROUND 5Z AND REMAIN UNTIL SUNRISE. LLVL STRATUS SHOULD BECOME        
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG. GOING TEMPS LOOK GOOD...WILL                
MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
REGIONAL 88D LOOPS INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING               
TO PIVOT AROUND MID-LVL SHEAR AXIS. VERY LITTLE SHEAR THROUGHOUT                
THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND PWATS CONTINUING TO RUN                 
AROUND 2 INCHES...LEADING TO SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY              
RAINFALL THREAT UNTIL ABOUT MID-EVENING. CVRG IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH           
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON THANKS TO LOSS OF HTG...AFOREMENTIONED                  
SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER JET CORE SLIPPING SE OF THE CWFA...BUT CANNOT              
RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CVRG LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS WITH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND EASTERLY LLVL FLOW.                         
CWFA LOOKS TO REMAIN WITHIN UPPER LVL WEAKNESS MONDAY BUT DRIER AIR             
FROM LLVL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE              
CWFA. 12 UTC GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS IN HANDLING                     
DISPLACEMENT OF DEEPER RH SOUTHWARD. PROBABLY BEST TO CONTINUE TO               
SHY AWAY FROM AGGRESSIVE GFS GIVEN TRACK RECORD LAST 2 OR 3                     
DAYS...AND WX GRIDS WILL FEATURE LOW CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOMINAL CHANGE IN THE WX            
PATTERN FOR TUESDAY WITH LINGERING UPPER WEAKNESS...BUT HEIGHTS A               
TAD HIGHER ALTHOUGH EASTERLY FLOW A LITTLE DEEPER. OVERALL...                   
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DRY OUT A LITTLE MORE...SO HAVE LIMITED CHANCE                
POPS TO JUST SW ZONES.                                                          
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                     
NOTHING TERRIBLY UNUSUAL ABOUT THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD              
AS BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY              
GRADUALLY RETROGRADES...RESULTING IN SLIGHT LOWERING OF HEIGHTS                 
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AS               
FAR AS SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES...LITTLE DEVIATION FROM EARLY AUGUST               
NORMALS AND DAILY DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES.                                      
AVIATION...                                                                     
WEAK WEDGE OVER EASTER PART OF AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH             
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION CONTG THRU AFTN AND EVE WITH MOST COVERAGE                
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST COUNTIES.  PRECIP WILL DIMINISH DURG THE LATE             
EVE. HIGH PROB THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL GET SOME TYPE OF PRECIP                  
DURG NEXT 8 HOURS...SO EXTENSIVE IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDN TO            
SUNRISE.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
927 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
MINIMAL CHANGES IN MORNING PACKAGE AS FIRST LOOK OF DATA IS                     
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. WEAKENING SHEAR LINE OVER                       
THE AREA STILL THE FOCUS OF PRECIP. PREFERRED NAM FOCUSES                       
AFTERNOON PRECIP TO SOUTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES...WHILE RUC                      
AND GFS CONCENTRATE PRECIP TO WEST AND NORTH.                                   
WITH NO REAL BOUNDARIES SHOWING UP IN MESOSCALE...WILL                          
KEEP PRECIP FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST PART OF AREA. TEMPS                            
STAY THE SAME.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 147 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                     
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS OVER S APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUE...BUT            
BECOMES LESS DEFINED AS ATLATNIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND WESTERN RIDGE                
RETROGRADES. MODEL DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF MOIST AXIS TODAY...WITH              
GFS CLOSE TO BLUE RIDGE AND NAM E OF AREA. STARTED MORNING POPS WITH            
BEST CHANCE N AND W PER RADAR TRENDS...THEN SWITCHED AFTERNOON POPS             
TOWARD NAM POSITION OF MOISTURE...WHICH GFS TRENDS TOWARD BY MON.               
RAISED POP IN E TODAY TOWARD MET/FWC GUIDANCE...THOUGH STILL A                  
BIT BELOW. MODELS AGREE ON MOISTURE SHIFTING S MON...AND LOWERED                
POPS TO LOW CHANCE MON AND MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE               
POPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE SHIFTS S OF AREA...AND                
ATMOSPHERE DRIES FROM TOP DOWN...BUT REMAINS MOIST AND MARGINALLY               
UNSTABLE AT LOW LEVELS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE AND               
CLOUD COVER DECREASES. WINDS TO STAY FROM NE OR E WITH SURFACE                  
RIDGE ALONG E COAST.                                                            
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                       
BOTH THE ETA AND GFS INDICATE A BROAD 500HPA TROUGH OVER THE EAST AT            
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE                   
EASTERN SEABOARD.  BOTH INDICATE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO THE EAST            
OF THIS AXIS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES.  THE               
GFS INDICATES A WEDGE-LIKE SIGNATURE IN THE INSTABILITY INDICES FOR             
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST...THIS MAY SEEM             
REASONABLE.  WITH THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE            
TO THE SOUTH...AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AT THE END OF THE                  
WEEKEND AND START OF THE WEEK.  THE ETA PROGRESSES THE UPPER TROUGH             
AXIS FASTER TO THE EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH WEAKENING.  AS HAS               
BEEN COMMON...THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE DEPENDABLE SO WE EXPECT THIS                
PROGRESSION TO THE BE SLOWER RATHER THAN FASTER.                                
THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSOLVE IN THE            
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC               
REGION WILL EXERT MORE OF AN INFLUENCE INTO MID WEEK AS POPS                    
DECREASE OVERALL.  WE HAVE MAINTAINED SOME DIURNAL POPS WITH EITHER             
SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH BUT MORE PRONOUNCED               
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE MID WEEK.                                        
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE                  
LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS IS                    
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK AND BY LATE WEEK               
MAY BRING TROPICAL RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
WITH E TO SE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT ON THE VAD WIND                          
PROFILE...PRECIPITATION HAS FANNED OUT ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR             
THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP AT KAVL                 
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH MUCH LESS CHANCE AT PIEDMONT TAF               
SITES. IFR CIGS WILL BE FEATURED THIS MORNING AT KAVL AND KGSP WHERE            
PRECIP HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED OR IS IMMINENT. MAINLY MVFR CIG AND                
VSBY EXPECTED FROM KAND TO KCLT...WITH CONDITIONS VERY SLOW TO                  
IMPROVE TO VFR CIG THROUGHOUT AFTER NOON. WITH MOIST                            
PROFILES...ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY             
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL ADVERTISE NARROW WINDOW OF BEST CONVECTIVE                 
CHANCES DURING MAXIMUM INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.                         
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...VAD                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
936 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING HOWEVER LINGERING                         
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER VIRGINIA COUNTIES HAVE LEAD TO SOME PROBLEMS                
WITH FLOODING. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER BY 04Z. NO MAJOR               
CHANGES IN ZONES. UPDATE OUT SOON.                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 738 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
BASICALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON THE TAFS THIS EVENING AS LAST                 
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SUBSIDING BY AROUND 03Z AND AREAS               
OF FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.                                               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 224 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
FORECAST BASICALLY A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO                 
HAVE A COLD BIAS OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO              
HAVE NUDGED THOSE UP. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IN AND JUST WEST OF                   
MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN FOG THERE WITH DRY AIR/GROUND OHIO RIVER WEST               
KEEPING FOG OUT THERE.                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DB                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
738 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BASICALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON THE TAFS THIS EVENING AS LAST                 
EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS SUBSIDING BY AROUND 03Z AND AREAS               
OF FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 224 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
FORECAST BASICALLY A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO                 
HAVE A COLD BIAS OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO              
HAVE NUDGED THOSE UP. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IN AND JUST WEST OF                   
MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN FOG THERE WITH DRY AIR/GROUND OHIO RIVER WEST               
KEEPING FOG OUT THERE.                                                          
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DB                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
FORECAST BASICALLY A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. MAV MOS CONTINUES TO                 
HAVE A COLD BIAS OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES ON THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SO              
HAVE NUDGED THOSE UP. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IN AND JUST WEST OF                   
MOUNTAINS WILL MEAN FOG THERE WITH DRY AIR/GROUND OHIO RIVER WEST               
KEEPING FOG OUT THERE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1258 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TONIGHT A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. FOG OVER AND ALONG WESTERN SLOPES               
OF MOUNTAINS LIFR DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. VICINITY OHIO RIVER WEST                
SKC WITH NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO DRYER AIR AND                  
GROUND CONDITIONS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                          
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...AAR                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1150 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
HOT AND HUMID WX CONTS WED AND THURS WITH H8 TEMPS AROUND 20C.                  
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY CAUGHT ON AS MAXT IS NOW PROGGED IN             
THE MID 90S FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED DAYS. MIXING LAYER INCREASES TO              
6-7KFT...SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW UPR 90S IN THE HTS               
AND DWU VCNTY GVN WE HAVE BEEN DRY FOR DECENT PERIOD OF TIME.                   
WARMEST THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN 97F AT HTS AND THAT COULD BE IN                    
JEOPARDY WED.                                                                   
ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE COME IN LINE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLES FM YDY WITH              
RESPECT TO BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO                
TRAVERSE LATE FRIDAY. H7 TEMP ADV REMAINS NEUTRAL...SO A CAP SHOULD             
KEEP THE AREA DRY THUR AFTN INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY UNTIL BOUNDARY APPCHS.           
GFS DOESN'T PROG MUCH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS HARD            
TO BELIEVE GIVEN MID AND UPR LVL MSTR WL BE ON THE INC ALONG WITH               
SFC DWTPS AROUND 70F...THUS INSERTED TRW MENTION FRI AREA WIDE.                 
CONT TRW VERBIAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HRS IN THE TUG BASIN AS                
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SINCE THE FRONT             
STALLS THERE OVERNIGHT.                                                         
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES S FM LK ERIE SAT PUSHING DRY AIR IN FM N TO S.              
LLVL MSTR STAYS HIGH IN SRN MTNS...SO KEPT CLOUDS AND TEMPS DWN                 
THERE...OTRW A SLIGHT COOL DOWN INTO THE MID 80S.                               
ANOTHER H5 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS SUN AND WITH                 
RESPECTIVE HGT RISES...MAXT ONCE AGAIN WL BE NR OR SURPASS 90F BY               
DAY 7. SFC HIGH POSITIONED IN NEW ENGLAND BRINGS LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW             
TO THE BKW AREA...SO NUDGED THEM BELOW GUID.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                            
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                   
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD                
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS SHOULD             
LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED            
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET              
NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL.                     
 THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND               
THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE               
THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME                           
STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                  
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION                 
EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN.               
BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LONG TERM...29                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THE BEST CHANCE OF                                
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND               
EVENING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALSO IN THE SE OHIO AND NW WV               
IN THE VICINITY OF PKB TO PERRY COUNTY THIS EVENING BASED ON A 250              
MB SHORT WAVE PASSING AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE LOW                   
RIGHT NOW BOTH THE RUC AND WRF PICKED UP ON SOMETHING THERE SO                  
THOUGHT IT WAS WORTH MENTION.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 550 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...BUT LOTS OF               
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CREATED A RANGE OF             
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...FROM VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WEST...TO PATCHES OF            
DENSE FOG IN THE EAST. FOG WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK AGAIN THIS MORNING             
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY              
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME                  
HAZE COULD KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY IN THE EAST HOWEVER.             
EXPECT FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 350 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                   
EXPECT VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE MOISTURE FIELD FOR TODAY. AVN                
HANDLING OF THE MOISTURE LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN THE NAM...MORE IN              
LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR MOVEMENT. IF ANY MOVEMENT OCCURS...WOULD                
EXPECT IT TO BE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON LOCATION OF                    
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON                     
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...HEDGING POPS A BIT MORE TOWARD THE             
SOUTHWEST. MAV MOS IS ONCE AGAIN COOLER THAN HIGHS ON PREVIOUS                  
DAY...SO WILL GO ABOVE MAV MOS.                                                 
LONG TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                         
THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SHOULD                
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS SHOULD             
LEAD TO A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY WEATHER AND                
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED            
ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET              
NUMBERS SINCE THE MAV NUMBERS HAVE BEEN VERIFYING TOO COOL.                     
 THE THING TO WATCH WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND               
THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE               
THE MOISTURE IS NOT ALL THAT PLENTIFUL BY SUMMER TIME                           
STANDARDS...THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF THE                  
REGION...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SOME CONVECTION                 
EITHER MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL CHOSEN.               
BUT AT THIS TIME...STILL THINK ANY SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF               
THE REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WV...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...AAR                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   wv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE TSTM CHCS                
AND TEMPS.  MID-AFTN SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF FM KINL TO KHON...AND              
WRMFNT ACRS LS TO NRN LOWER MI.  ALTHOUGH MDT INSTAB EXISTS ACRS MUCH OF        
FCST AREA...VRY LTL IN THE WAY OF MECHANISM TO LIFT PARCELS ATTM.  EARLY        
AFTN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AROUND ATW INDCT CAPPING INVERSION AND DRY LAYER          
AROUND 840-860 MB.  00Z NMM WRF...12Z NAM AND 15Z RUC DO INDCT INCREASED        
CHC FOR ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION BTWN 00Z-06Z ACRS NRN HALF OF FCST AREA AHD        
OF SFC TROF AND WK MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF.                                         
FCST TEMPS FOR TNGT AND MON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND AVN MOS.                 
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL             
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY DURING THIS                 
PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.                 
TIMING FRONTAL SYSTEMS ALONG WITH S/WS ON THIS NORTHERN PERIMETER WILL          
BE THE CHALLENGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS           
CONTINUE TO WASH OUT A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN          
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION SLIDES OVER         
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.                                                
RETURN FLOW STARTS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND GFS/NAM         
PROGGED PCPN TO SPREAD OVER.  HOWEVER DUE TO RECENT TIMING CHALLENGES           
WITH S/WS AND DEALING WITH AN AIR MASS WHICH WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY IN         
RESPECT TO SATURATE...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.           
OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN STILL FROM WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT          
AS UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE UPER RIDGE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES            
OVER THE AREA.  GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                      
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN AGAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  SOME            
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER S/W TROF TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY          
BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.                                     
&&                                                                              
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL/HELMAN                                                                      
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
415 AM MDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                    
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVEL NORTH ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY               
THIS MORNING. IT WILL SPAWN ISOLD-WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN                 
EMBEDDED TSTM OR TWO BEFORE IS EXIST INTO WYOMING ABOUT 9 AM.                   
THE SITUATION DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH OVER THE           
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MONSOONAL PLUME LOOKS ALMOST STATIC IN THE MODELS            
AND WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING EASTERN             
UT AND NW CO. THE RUC SHOWS A FEW MORE VORT MAXES OVER SRN AZ THAT              
WILL AFFECT EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. BUMPED           
UP THE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY...BUT THE TRACE REPORTS IN THE RTP           
SHOW SIGNIFICANT RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED AREAS AGAIN                
TODAY. PW ACTUALLY DECREASED ABOUT .16 INCH FROM THE 12Z TO 00Z                 
SOUNDING. A LITTLE BIT OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT TODAY WILL HELP PRODUCE A             
COPY OF SUNDAY...BUT THIS ISN'T AS WET AS THE MONSOON CAN GET.                  
WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THOSE ISOLD AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT                     
PRECIPITATION AS WE SAW SUNDAY. MODEL TIME/HEIGHTS DISPLAYS SHOW LESS           
DYNAMIC HELP TUE SO POPS TAIL OFF A LITTLE. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE               
THEIR SLOW DOWNTURN...THOUGH IT APPEAR MODELS ARE TOO COLD AGAIN                
TODAY.                                                                          
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN                
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  H7                 
MIXING RATIOS ON THE GFS AND NAM MODEL WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 9                   
G/KG...SUGGESTING THAT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL                      
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR THE MOST PART...WINDS ALOFT             
WILL BE LIGHT AND THEREFORE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH LOCAL               
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.  THE EXCEPTION MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN A               
TROUGH AXIS DRAGS ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA.  WIND SHEAR ABOVE            
500 MB INCREASES WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  THEREFORE STORMS ACROSS                
THE NRN AREAS MAY SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION AND BE LONGER LIVED.                 
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS MODEL SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSING THE            
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND                
THE TROUGH AXIS.  BUT NORTHWEST FLOW IS WEAK BEHIND THE TROUGH                  
AXIS AND A CHANGE IN AIR MASS MAY BE LIMITED TO NE UTAH.  THEREFORE             
"CHANCE" POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR SWRN COLORADO...BUT A TREND OF                  
LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE INDICATED FOR ERN UTAH AND NWRN                    
COLORADO.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
CJC/PF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
500 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SFC MAP AT 03Z SHOWING WARM FRONT ACROSS NE LAKE HURON            
WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER IN FAR             
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SFC LOWS...A FRONTAL                
ZONE (ALBEIT WEAK) IS STRETCHED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG TO                
SEVERE STORMS WERE FIRING ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND WERE MOVING SE            
AT ROUGHLY 30 MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER                
VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRIEST OF AIR. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED               
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOT VERY FAR FROM POPPING WITH MINIMAL CAP              
LEFT. HOWEVER FROM 18Z-00Z...TEMPS AT 750MB ROSE FROM +8C TO +12C               
WHICH RESULTED IN THE CAP. THERE WAS 3000J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE WITH            
WET BULBS AROUND 11.8 KFT AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KTS.                    
ANALYZING AREA ACARS SOUNDINGS...WE ONLY HAD 20J/KG OF CIN ACROSS               
EASTERN UPPER WITH 60J/KG ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA SUGGESTING THAT                
STORMS COULD HAVE FIRED FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY THAT                  
INITIATED THE STORMS HAS MADE IT ONLY TO MACKINAC COUNTY AND FAR NRN            
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER HAS OUTRUN THE                    
BOUNDARY AND HEADED INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS THAT COULD NOT               
SUSTAIN THEM. PLUS...THERE IS BASICALLY NO HELP AT H8...THEREFORE               
THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED.                                                      
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM WAS 2-3 DEGREES TOO COOL              
WITH THE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CAP AT 00Z. GFS WAS MORE IN LINE.              
BOTH MODELS SHOW THE GENERAL TREND OF BRINGING SFC TROUGH AXIS OR               
WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE STRAITS TO ROUGHLY            
ALPENA THIS MORNING...WHILE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY              
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...AND HANG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.                          
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AND HOW              
WARM WE WILL GET...SAME AS LAST FEW DAYS.                                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE                   
FRONTAL ZONE GO AND HOW MUCH CONVERGENCE WILL IT HAVE? WITH BOUNDARY            
HANGING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WILL BLEND WITH THE RUC AND GFS IDEA             
OF KEEPING IT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION TODAY...BUT CONVERGENCE                 
BECOMES RATHER MEAGER WITH IT WASHING OUT WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL HAVE AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR                
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING NOTED IN THE                
700-750MB LAYER (WHERE CAP WAS AT 00Z YESTERDAY). H8 WINDS WILL BE              
LESS TODAY (10-15KTS)...SUPPORTING LAKE BREEZES MOST ALL NEARSHORE              
AREAS. OVERALL SW GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS BEST CONVERGENCE THIS                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CWA. MODIFYING SOUNDINGS REVEAL 1000J/KG                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY WITH AS MUCH AS 2200J/KG IN THE SE CWA               
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 85-89F RANGE. DO BELIEVE WE'LL SEE                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF I-75 IN NRN LOWER...AND             
MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER. SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR INLAND               
CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO            
FIRE OFF ACTIVITY. BULK SHEAR RATHER MINIMAL AT 20-25KTS SO STORM               
ORGANIZATION NOT AS LIKELY AS LAST NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT ONE OR             
TWO STORMS GETTING A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING              
WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. ANY AFTERNOON                     
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND               
WITH ANTICYCLONIC H8 FLOW AND NO OTHER DYNAMICAL HELP ALOFT                     
FORESEEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRECIP FREE FORECAST. AXIS OF                   
THETA-E AIR REMAINS/LIFTS SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE THE              
AREA TO WATCH IF ANYTHING DOES DECIDE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS TODAY WITH              
SIMILAR H8 TEMPS AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID               
AND UPPER 80S...AND WITH TD'S IN THE MIDDLE 60S...LOWS OVERNIGHT                
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY RATHER WARM...H8 TEMPS RISE TO            
19C OR SO...AND SFC TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER             
90S. DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH STOCK CAN BE PLACED INTO GFS COOLING SEEN             
AROUND H7 IN A PATTERN WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE RISING. NEVERTHELESS...             
STEEPER LAPSE RATES BETWEEN H8-H7 SEEN...AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                 
SHOWING THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED/CAP ERODED. THIS USING            
A PARCEL OF 88/65 AND GETTING CAPES TO 1800 TO 2000J/KG...MAINLY FOR            
AREAS SOUTH OF A HTL-APN LINE. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% POP FOR THIS               
AREA BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE             
DOWNWIND OF LAKES (IN SW FLOW)...SUCH AS CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE CIN              
IS ONLY 20-30J/KG. LAKE BREEZES THIS DAY AS WELL AND COULD BE A                 
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING                
POPS THERE ATTM. AGAIN...ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE             
EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.               
MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.                           
NO OTHER CHANGES...WARM TEMPS UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN             
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN.  SMD                                    
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
400 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS DEPICTING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER               
NORTHERN LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH WASHING OUT AS IT SLICES SOUTHEAST            
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE AT 500 MB HEIGHTS TENDING TO SLOWLY RISE             
THROUGH TONIGHT. VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG NORTHERN FRONT               
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD...AS ASSOCIATED              
CLOUDINESS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXTENDS DOWN INTO NORTHERN PART OF                 
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SHOW A STEADY THINNING                
TREND EARLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY UNDERWAY AS PER WARMING IR TOPS              
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                           
WILL CONFINE CONVECTION MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE SAGINAW VALLEY AND             
THUMB THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY RUC13 AND WRFXX...AS DAYTIME                
HEATING HAS A CHANCE TO WORK WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF COLD FRONT...WITH             
ESPECIALLY NAM DEPICTING QUITE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AND K              
INDICES TO AT LEAST 30...WITH FAIRLY STEEP 850 TO 700 MB LAPSE                  
RATES. MOISTURE...LIMITED AS IT IS...WILL ALSO BE BEST IN THE                   
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. DYNAMICS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS              
WELL...IN TERMS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA                       
LIFT...SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT SURFACE              
WIND CONVERGENCE. IN SOUTHERN ZONES...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE              
MORE IN CONTROL...AND ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY TOO ISOLATED              
FOR FORECAST MENTION.                                                           
AM GOING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS BOTH               
NAM AND NGM T1 TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN              
YESTERDAY...BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP TO CLOSE TO 90 TODAY.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MAINLY                
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM ACROSS            
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE WAY               
THE NAM HAS HANDLED CONVECTION RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...LOCAL WRF-XX             
OFFERS A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WILL               
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS DRIER THROUGH               
MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT WITH THE                       
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK /ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS                
BECOME INCREASINGLY NOT AS LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN MODEL TRENDS OVER             
THE PAST FEW DAYS/. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST                  
COUPLE RUNS...AND AGAIN HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER EXTENDED MODELS.                 
WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE             
REGION. DECENT CAP APPARENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY                  
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH. MAIN AREA IN QUESTION            
FOR POPS IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA/THUMB OUT INTO LAKE                         
HURON...CLOSER TO THE WEAK TROUGH AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CWA.                
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. GRADIENT FLOW            
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WITH A LARGE              
LAND/LAKE DELTA-T COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A TRUE UPRIGHT LAKE BREEZE              
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE THUMB...WHICH MAY ALSO AID CONVECTIVE                    
POTENTIAL. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY IS WITH SYNOPTIC                
LIFT...AS WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME NEUTRAL BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH THE DRY                        
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.                           
NAM IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE SWINGING MCS REMNANTS ACROSS LOWER                    
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NAM HAS BEEN             
OVERDONE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RECENTLY. GFS INDICATES                      
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE                
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE                   
REACHING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR            
NOW. NAM IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/WRF-XX WITH 850MB TEMPS ON                 
WEDNESDAY. FEEL THAT GFS MAY BE TOO COOL...DUE TO CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK FROM COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF A MIDDLE              
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE ON                    
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S.                                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ETA WITH             
THE SPEED OF THE NEXT FRONT. ACTUALLY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SIMILAR            
WRF-XX AS IT HAS A TIGHTER SURFACE REFLECTION NOT AS CONTAMINATED BY            
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RUNS BRING THE THROUGH                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY                  
FRIDAY. ADJUSTED TIMING ON THE FRONT SIDE A BIT...BRINGING IN A                 
CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD            
ON THE BACK SIDE...STILL KEEPING A CHANCE INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO                
COVER TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL STICK WITH A FLAT 30 PERCENT AT                
THIS POINT. OVERALL EVENT LOOKS WORTHY OF A HIGHER POP...BUT WILL               
STICK WITH 30 FOR NOW GIVEN THE BORDER PERIOD TIMING ISSUES AS WELL             
AS THE OVERALL SPEED/TIMING TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM. ATMOSPHERE DRIES            
OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION... ISSUED 102 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                   
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES                
TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. A FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR              
CONVECTION ACROSS THE UP AND LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE                   
HURON THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE MID LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE                     
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MI                     
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. BASED ON THE THICKNESS PATTERN...                    
CONVECTION ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN SHOULD SINK SOUTH DURING THE                   
NIGHT. WITH SOME DRYER MID LEVEL AIR OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND                
WEAKER FORCING... EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS                 
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI. THINK THAT JUST SOME MID LEVEL                  
DEBRIS WILL MAKE IT INTO MBS AND POSSIBLY FNT LATE TONIGHT. WILL                
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CASE AN AMENDMENT              
IS NEEDED TO ADD PRECIP TO MBS.                                                 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN ON                   
MONDAY. FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. IN                    
FACT...THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE              
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE            
REMAINS IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. THUS VFR CONDITIONS              
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.                                            
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BRAVENDER                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
308 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
NOT MANY CHANGES TO MAKE IN THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. STILL UNDER               
THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.            
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE OF             
YESTERDAY.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHEASTERN MO...WHICH HAD A LOT             
OF CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED SHOWERS YESTERDAY...SO THIS AREA WILL BE               
NEARLY 10 DEG WARMER TODAY.  MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE TO              
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE LLVL JET SEEMS TO FOCUS MOST                   
OF THE ENERGY JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR ANY             
SENSIBLE WX IN THE GRIDS.  TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND HOTTER AS THE                
WEEK GOES BY.  HAVE KEPT DROPPING DPTS IN THE THE SOUTHEASTERN                  
COUNTIES...AS THEY KEEP MIXING OUT IN THE MID/LATE AFTN.                        
THE BIGGEST CHANGE WAS MADE IN THE THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME.  MODELS HAVE            
SPED UP THE FRONT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...SO HAVE TRENDED FORECAST IN            
THAT DIRECTION.  THIS WILL AFFECT WED HIGHS BY PUTTING A NICE                   
THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO HAVE GONE A LITTLE WARMER.                
HAVE ALSO GONE WARMER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WED NIGHT.  ATTM                 
MODELS DO NOT SHOW A LOT OF CONVERGENCE AS THE FRONT GOES                       
THROUGH...AND NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY START INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER             
EARLY THURS MORNING...ALSO NOT A FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.  TAKE                   
THAT WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM PRETTY FAR NORTH...AND WE KEEP POPS IN THE            
VERY LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.                                               
27                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
530 PM SUN...                                                                   
I HAVE ADDED SOME SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EARLY                
EVENING FORECAST FOR THE KIRKSVILLE, MACON, AND LANCASTER AREAS IN              
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LOCAL WIND PROFILERS                
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.             
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE ABOVE 700               
MB. THE RUC SUGGESTS THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE IN IOWA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST             
THIS EVENING THETA-E ADVECTION AT THE 700 MB LEVEL WILL DIMINISH,               
AND I WOULD ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AFTER 02 OR            
03 UTC.                                                                         
KOCH                                                                            
214 PM SUN...                                                                   
VORT MAX OVER SOUTHERN IOWA CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED              
ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.                    
ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE                  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.                
OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE                  
WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING               
WEEK. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FLEETING CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION               
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WEAK WAVES TOP THE UPPER                        
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH BOTH NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MINOR IMPULSES             
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO                    
TEMPERATURES...WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL REGIME CONTINUING.                          
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE GENERAL            
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A BIT OF A CHANGE AS THE DOMINATE RIDGE IS                 
PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST BY SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CANADA.               
THE FIRST WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY                         
THURSDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI                  
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN HOW FAR NORTH THIS SYSTEM IS...THE COLD POOL              
PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. MID RANGE MODELS SEEM              
TO AGREE ON THIS AS THEY DISPLAY THE BAROCLINICITY DECREASING ALONG             
THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO SINK INTO OUR                 
AREA. HOWEVER...STILL THINK THE TAIL OF THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH            
FORCING TO WARRANT CHANCE POPS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 80S FOR FRIDAY AND                        
SATURDAY...RANGING AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE                 
THROUGH CANADA IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER                   
SOUTH...POSSIBLY GIVING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON THE OTHER SIDE            
OF NEXT WEEKEND.                                                                
SCHMIT/CUTTER                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
330 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                          
COMPLEX YET SUBTLE PTRN DETERMINING THE DVLPMT AND CONTINUATION OF              
CONV ELEMENTS. THIS MRNG...MESOSCALE TROF...RDG...TROF SFC SETUP.               
MCC OVER NRN MI AND SE ONTARIO HAS BEEN DROPPING INTO THE STUBBORN              
MESO RDG OVER WRN NY AND ERODING. BOTH THE LATEST RUC AND NAM RUNS              
SHOW THIS FEATURE HOLDING FAST AND KEEPING THIS CONV WELL NORTH OF              
THE FCST AREA. HWVR...BOTH CONT TO SHOW CONV ALONG THE WEAK SFC                 
TROF/BNDRY OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY AND NRN PA. STILL THE PSBLTY THAT              
SOMETHING COULD DVLP...BUT BNDRY/S BEEN QUIET THRU THE NGT. BNDRIES             
ARE SO WEAK...THERE DFCLT TO TRACK BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH YET                   
ANOTHER...OR THE SAME...OLD BNDRY SETTLES SWRD LTR THIS AFTN AND                
FEED ON THE GNRL INSTABILITY TO DVLP MORE TRWS. XPCT CONV TO DVLP               
OVER CNTRL NY THIS AFTN AND SETTLE INTO NRN PA THIS EVE. SOME                   
BORDERLINE SVR WX SUN AFTN...AND SOME PSBL AGAIN TODAY. WIND FIELDS             
ARE SLGTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...ESP OVER NY...SO SOME ISLTD WIND DAMAGE            
RPTS PSBL.                                                                      
ACTIVITY SHD TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVE AND OVRNGT HRS SHD BE DRY AS            
THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. GNRLY STABLE ON TUE HGTS BLD. NAM SHOWS A               
WEAK SHRT WV DROPPING THRU THE RDG AND WEAKENS THE CAPPING OVER PA              
AND XTRM WRN NY. SEEMS LIKE ANY PSBLTY OF TRWS OVER THE FCST AREA IS            
LIMITED...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST CRNT FCST OF LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE             
XTRM SW. THAT AREA WLD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.                                    
MINOR TWEAKS OF TEMPS AND POPS TO FIT LATEST MODEL AND MOS                      
CONSENSUS...OTRW NO MAJOR CHGS TO THE FCST THIS UPDATE. MORFORD                 
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...                                          
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  WEAK                   
FORCING COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS BUT LEFT OUT AS SURFACE HIGH                 
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN THU PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING               
ALOFT.  WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HUMIDITY AND A TAD MORE HEAT WILL             
RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS MORE               
PUSH WITH A WEAK UL TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE.  QUESTION IS ABOUT               
TIMING WITH A FEW MODELS INCLUDING DGEX A FEW HOURS FASTER.  THIS               
WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND LESS HEATING.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE                  
LATELY FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AND                  
THROUGH NY THEN STALLS IN PA.  LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO SAT             
NGT BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.  FOLLOWED HPC               
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. -TAC                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (01/06Z - 02/06Z)                                                     
SOME LGT FOG THIS MRNG RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS SOME STATIONS. ANY               
IFR CONDS SHD BE BRIEF. VFR CONDS SHD RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST            
PD. SCT CONV WILL LIKELY DVLP THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND                    
BRIEFLY LWR CONDS.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
1021 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES THIS             
MORNING. COVERAGE OF PRECIP THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT THE               
SAME AS YESTERDAY AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LIKELY POPS.             
CONVECTION WILL BEGIN WHEN TEMPS REACH MID/UPPER 80S. THE RUC                   
INDICATES STORMS WILL FIRE EARLY ALONG THE SEABREEZES MOVING IN FROM            
THE NE GULF AND ALSO NEAR I-95. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL BRING               
STORMS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTN. WILL BE MAKING NO CHANGES            
EXCEPT TO REFRESH THE WORDING IN THE FORECAST.                                  
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS              
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MKT/JD/JB                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
955 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA. LAST NIGHT WAS                   
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST...HOWEVER                       
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA              
AND NPW FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.                      
REST OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW SUNSHINE TO MIX WITH CLOUDS.                         
BUFKIT SHOWS CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND 4-5K FT...SO PARTLY CLOUDY                   
WORDING WILL WORK FINE. RUC AND GFS EVEN IMPLY A STRAY SHOWER OR                
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST. INSERTED A 20 POP THERE            
FOR LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                
PRODUCTS ALREADY RELEASED.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS FOG/STRATUS LIFT.                  
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z ACROSS ALL                   
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE HAZE COULD LIMIT VISIBILITIES INTO                
MVFR AT TIMES. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AT LEAST              
IFR AGAIN LATER TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
QUIET ON THE WATERS. NO FLAGS...WITH A DOMINANT EASTERLY WIND                   
COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...AT 5 TO 10 KT.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 625 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...                                               
IR SAT IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES IN               
THE LOWER OH VALLEY HAS PROGRESSED ACROSS THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST                
TO SOUTHEAST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70              
ACROSS THE REGION...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO            
WITH 1 TO 3 F OF THE DEWPOINTS THROUGH 05Z. WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF               
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING FOR THE CWA WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FROM              
NELSON CO VA NORTH TO FAUQUIER CO...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSER TO            
THE DEWPOINTS AT 05Z. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL MENTION              
PATCHY FOG.                                                                     
STRONG EARLY AUGUST SUNSHINE SHOULD MIX OUT THE MORNING FOG BY 13Z              
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z TO THE WEST. 00Z RUNS            
OF THE GFS AND NAM BRING A SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND                 
TODAY...AND THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PICK UP THE WEAK TROUGH ACROSS            
THE EASTERN MID ATLANTIC AND DRAG IT TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC              
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK RIDGING AT H85 AND H5              
TODAY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED CU WILL FORM                
NEAR 4K FT LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH H85                       
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 2 C WARMER THAN SUNDAY...EXPECT                
HIGHS TO BE IN THE MID 80S...SLIGHTLY BELOW NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.                 
H85 AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OH VALLEY                       
TONIGHT...AND SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC WILL BECOME                
MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY THROUGH                      
TONIGHT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH SFC              
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM              
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.                                         
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                           
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR MUCH OF THIS NEW              
WEEK.                                                                           
HAVE ADDED ISOLATED TSRA IN THE HIGH TERRAIN ABOVE 2000 FT ON                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. SOME MUDDLED CONVERGENCE IS                   
INDICATED ON THE NAM WHICH EVEN SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE                 
WEST.                                                                           
OTHERWISE THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY            
DRY AND WARM...TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 90S TUE-THU WILL BE TOLERABLE               
WITH DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.              
HEAT INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 100 DEG AT THIS TIME.                        
ON FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE                 
NORTH...AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST AND SLGT                
CHANCE IN THE EAST. ON SATURDAY THE GFS BRINGS A SFC WAVE THROUGH               
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR REGION THROUGH             
SUNDAY...FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS SAT-SUN WITH WASHED OUT            
FRONT AND POSSIBILITY OF SFC WAVES. ALSO HAVE INDICATED HIGHER CLOUD            
AMOUNTS THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPS.                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
LIGHT FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT IAD/DCA/BWI/MTN AGAIN THIS MORNING             
WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR TO NEAR IFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 09Z               
AND 12Z. AT MRB/CHO VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY THROUGH            
13Z. OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL BRING               
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES AFTER 13Z. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE             
LIKELY AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...AS SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE OH              
VALLEY.                                                                         
MARINE...                                                                       
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN OH VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO             
THE EAST TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT EAST WINDS LESS THAN             
5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...AS             
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...SMITH/JB                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                              
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.                  
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN LAKES REGION WILL WASH OUT THROUGH              
THE DAY AS IT DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BENEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. VERY            
WARM CONDITIONS WILL BUILD THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY UNDER THE               
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  MORNING SOUNDING AT DTX               
AND FORECAST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES                   
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF SE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON            
WITH THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE STATE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER                 
90S.  PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THIS WELL HANDLED AND MADE ONLY MINIMAL             
CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                         
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE                 
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL YIELD PLENTY OF INSTABILITY THIS                    
AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE               
THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT SBCAPE VALUES WILL EXCEED 2000 J/KG                
ACROSS MOST SE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL 50-100 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE            
INHIBITION IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT THIS WILL ERODE THIS AFTERNOON             
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM UP. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF               
ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION            
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE INHIBITION ERODES ANY LAKE BREEZE THAT                   
DEVELOPS MAY HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION AS THE              
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL OPPOSE THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. ANY            
CONVECTION THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN COVERAGE             
AND THE MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT IS IN PLACE WILL NOT SUPPORT              
WELL ORGANIZED STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF                   
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE IN THE THUMB AND WITH THIS IN MIND WILL                
KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE NRN CWA.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VIRTUALLY VFR TAF FORECASTS FOR ENTIRE 24 HOURS. EXCEPTION FOR                  
VISIBILITY FOR KFNT SITE FOR 5 MILES IN MIST SHOULD BE MIXED OUT BY             
13Z. CEILINGS ALL UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT FOR SOME BROKEN HIGH LEVEL MID            
CLOUDS NORTH SITES THIS MORNING. THICK CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE              
NORTHERN LAKES CONVECTION EARLIER HAVE CONTINUED TO THIN.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON                         
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS DEPICTING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER               
NORTHERN LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH WASHING OUT AS IT SLICES SOUTHEAST            
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE AT 500 MB HEIGHTS TENDING TO SLOWLY RISE             
THROUGH TONIGHT. VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG NORTHERN FRONT               
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD...AS ASSOCIATED              
CLOUDINESS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXTENDS DOWN INTO NORTHERN PART OF                 
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SHOW A STEADY THINNING                
TREND EARLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY UNDERWAY AS PER WARMING IR TOPS              
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                           
WILL CONFINE CONVECTION MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE SAGINAW VALLEY AND             
THUMB THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY RUC13 AND WRFXX...AS DAYTIME                
HEATING HAS A CHANCE TO WORK WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF COLD FRONT...WITH             
ESPECIALLY NAM DEPICTING QUITE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AND K              
INDICES TO AT LEAST 30...WITH FAIRLY STEEP 850 TO 700 MB LAPSE                  
RATES. MOISTURE...LIMITED AS IT IS...WILL ALSO BE BEST IN THE                   
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. DYNAMICS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS              
WELL...IN TERMS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA                       
LIFT...SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT SURFACE              
WIND CONVERGENCE. IN SOUTHERN ZONES...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE              
MORE IN CONTROL...AND ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY TOO ISOLATED              
FOR FORECAST MENTION.                                                           
AM GOING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS BOTH               
NAM AND NGM T1 TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN              
YESTERDAY...BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP TO CLOSE TO 90 TODAY.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON                                              
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MAINLY                
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM ACROSS            
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE WAY               
THE NAM HAS HANDLED CONVECTION RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...LOCAL WRF-XX             
OFFERS A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WILL               
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS DRIER THROUGH               
MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT WITH THE                       
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK /ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS                
BECOME INCREASINGLY NOT AS LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN MODEL TRENDS OVER             
THE PAST FEW DAYS/. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST                  
COUPLE RUNS...AND AGAIN HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER EXTENDED MODELS.                 
WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE             
REGION. DECENT CAP APPARENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY                  
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH. MAIN AREA IN QUESTION            
FOR POPS IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA/THUMB OUT INTO LAKE                         
HURON...CLOSER TO THE WEAK TROUGH AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CWA.                
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. GRADIENT FLOW            
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WITH A LARGE              
LAND/LAKE DELTA-T COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A TRUE UPRIGHT LAKE BREEZE              
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE THUMB...WHICH MAY ALSO AID CONVECTIVE                    
POTENTIAL. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY IS WITH SYNOPTIC                
LIFT...AS WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME NEUTRAL BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH THE DRY                        
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.                           
NAM IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE SWINGING MCS REMNANTS ACROSS LOWER                    
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NAM HAS BEEN             
OVERDONE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RECENTLY. GFS INDICATES                      
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE                
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE                   
REACHING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR            
NOW. NAM IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/WRF-XX WITH 850MB TEMPS ON                 
WEDNESDAY. FEEL THAT GFS MAY BE TOO COOL...DUE TO CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK FROM COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF A MIDDLE              
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE ON                    
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S.                                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ETA WITH             
THE SPEED OF THE NEXT FRONT. ACTUALLY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SIMILAR            
WRF-XX AS IT HAS A TIGHTER SURFACE REFLECTION NOT AS CONTAMINATED BY            
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RUNS BRING THE THROUGH                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY                  
FRIDAY. ADJUSTED TIMING ON THE FRONT SIDE A BIT...BRINGING IN A                 
CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD            
ON THE BACK SIDE...STILL KEEPING A CHANCE INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO                
COVER TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL STICK WITH A FLAT 30 PERCENT AT                
THIS POINT. OVERALL EVENT LOOKS WORTHY OF A HIGHER POP...BUT WILL               
STICK WITH 30 FOR NOW GIVEN THE BORDER PERIOD TIMING ISSUES AS WELL             
AS THE OVERALL SPEED/TIMING TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM. ATMOSPHERE DRIES            
OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...DWD                                                           
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE....RG                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1126 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH LYING             
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES...SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH                   
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR AND WV.  LOW CLOUDS               
AND SOME FOG CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY...WITH SOME             
OF THAT HAVING SPILLED SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON.  SOME                
FLAT SC DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH CAPPING INVERSION                 
EVIDENT ON 12Z APX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE WITH                   
TRANSVERSE BANDING IN THIS CLOUD DECK.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CAP IS               
WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR EASTERN LAKE HURON AND             
GEORGIAN BAY.                                                                   
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON REVOLVES AROUND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.               
12Z 850MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A NARROW AXIS OF HIGH DEW POINTS/THETA-E             
RUNNING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER...WITH             
DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTING INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER.  MODIFIED            
APX SOUNDING FOR 88/65 (WITH AT LEAST MID 60S DEW POINTS APPEARING              
QUITE REASONABLE FOR TODAY FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT PERHAPS PARTS OF               
NORTHWEST LOWER...MORE ON THAT BELOW) YIELDS CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG              
WITH MINIMAL CINH.  CAPPING MAY HOLD OVER NORTHWEST LOWER WITH                  
MARINE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY MIX               
DEW POINTS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.  BEST LARGE SCALE MOISTURE                       
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ACROSS UPPER MI AND NORTHEAST LOWER...WHERE                
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE CAN ALSO FOCUS THINGS ON A SMALLER SCALE.               
SOME WEAK QG FORCING ALSO EXPECTED IN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW.                 
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY REASONABLE...NOT A BIG FAN OF THE SLIGHT             
CHANCE USAGE SO WILL UP THE SLIGHT CHANCE AREAS TO CHANCE POPS...BUT            
TRIM BACK TO AREAS EAST OF US-131.  DESPITE POTENTIALLY GOOD                    
INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK                
WINDS ALOFT (AOB 25 KNOTS THROUGH 300MB)...SO ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL            
BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY HAIL/DOWNBURST EVENTS.                                  
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 500 AM EDT MON AUG 1.                                 
SFC MAP AT 03Z SHOWING WARM FRONT ACROSS NE LAKE HURON WITH A WEAK              
CIRCULATION IN EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER IN FAR WESTERN LAKE            
SUPERIOR. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SFC LOWS...A FRONTAL ZONE (ALBEIT                
WEAK) IS STRETCHED ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS               
WERE FIRING ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND WERE MOVING SE AT ROUGHLY 30            
MPH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED            
WITH THE DRIEST OF AIR. 00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THUNDERSTORMS              
WERE NOT VERY FAR FROM POPPING WITH MINIMAL CAP LEFT. HOWEVER FROM              
18Z-00Z...TEMPS AT 750MB ROSE FROM +8C TO +12C WHICH RESULTED IN THE            
CAP. THERE WAS 3000J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE WITH WET BULBS AROUND 11.8            
KFT AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40KTS.  ANALYZING AREA ACARS                    
SOUNDINGS...WE ONLY HAD 20J/KG OF CIN ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH                 
60J/KG ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA SUGGESTING THAT STORMS COULD HAVE                 
FIRED FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY THAT INITIATED THE STORMS               
HAS MADE IT ONLY TO MACKINAC COUNTY AND FAR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE              
PRECIPITATION FROM EARLIER HAS OUTRUN THE BOUNDARY AND HEADED INTO A            
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS THAT COULD NOT SUSTAIN THEM. PLUS...THERE IS            
BASICALLY NO HELP AT H8...THEREFORE THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED.                  
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM WAS 2-3 DEGREES TOO COOL              
WITH THE TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CAP AT 00Z. GFS WAS MORE IN LINE.              
BOTH MODELS SHOW THE GENERAL TREND OF BRINGING SFC TROUGH AXIS OR               
WEAK COOL FRONT FROM THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE STRAITS TO ROUGHLY            
ALPENA THIS MORNING...WHILE LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY              
WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...AND HANG ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.                          
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AND HOW              
WARM WE WILL GET...SAME AS LAST FEW DAYS.                                       
TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS...HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE                   
FRONTAL ZONE GO AND HOW MUCH CONVERGENCE WILL IT HAVE? WITH BOUNDARY            
HANGING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WILL BLEND WITH THE RUC AND GFS IDEA             
OF KEEPING IT ACROSS THE STRAITS REGION TODAY...BUT CONVERGENCE                 
BECOMES RATHER MEAGER WITH IT WASHING OUT WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE               
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STILL HAVE AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR                
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING NOTED IN THE                
700-750MB LAYER (WHERE CAP WAS AT 00Z YESTERDAY). H8 WINDS WILL BE              
LESS TODAY (10-15KTS)...SUPPORTING LAKE BREEZES MOST ALL NEARSHORE              
AREAS. OVERALL SW GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTS BEST CONVERGENCE THIS                  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SE CWA. MODIFYING SOUNDINGS REVEAL 1000J/KG                
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER TODAY WITH AS MUCH AS 2200J/KG IN THE SE CWA               
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 85-89F RANGE. DO BELIEVE WE'LL SEE                 
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF I-75 IN NRN LOWER...AND             
MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER. SLIGHT CHANCE EXISTS FOR INLAND               
CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO            
FIRE OFF ACTIVITY. BULK SHEAR RATHER MINIMAL AT 20-25KTS SO STORM               
ORGANIZATION NOT AS LIKELY AS LAST NIGHT. COULD NOT RULE OUT ONE OR             
TWO STORMS GETTING A STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING              
WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL. ANY AFTERNOON                     
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND               
WITH ANTICYCLONIC H8 FLOW AND NO OTHER DYNAMICAL HELP ALOFT                     
FORESEEN...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PRECIP FREE FORECAST. AXIS OF                   
THETA-E AIR REMAINS/LIFTS SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND WILL BE THE              
AREA TO WATCH IF ANYTHING DOES DECIDE TO DEVELOP. HIGHS TODAY WITH              
SIMILAR H8 TEMPS AND GOOD SOLAR HEATING WILL MAKE IT INTO THE MID               
AND UPPER 80S...AND WITH TD'S IN THE MIDDLE 60S...LOWS OVERNIGHT                
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.                                          
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL STAY RATHER WARM...H8 TEMPS RISE TO            
19C OR SO...AND SFC TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER             
90S. DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH STOCK CAN BE PLACED INTO GFS COOLING SEEN             
AROUND H7 IN A PATTERN WHERE H5 HEIGHTS ARE RISING. NEVERTHELESS...             
STEEPER LAPSE RATES BETWEEN H8-H7 SEEN...AND MODIFIED SOUNDINGS                 
SHOWING THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE REACHED/CAP ERODED. THIS USING            
A PARCEL OF 88/65 AND GETTING CAPES TO 1800 TO 2000J/KG...MAINLY FOR            
AREAS SOUTH OF A HTL-APN LINE. HAVE INTRODUCED A 20% POP FOR THIS               
AREA BUT WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR AREAS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE             
DOWNWIND OF LAKES (IN SW FLOW)...SUCH AS CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE CIN              
IS ONLY 20-30J/KG. LAKE BREEZES THIS DAY AS WELL AND COULD BE A                 
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HELD OFF ON INTRODUCING                
POPS THERE ATTM. AGAIN...ANY ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE             
EARLY EVENING...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.               
MIN TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.                           
NO OTHER CHANGES...WARM TEMPS UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN             
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN.  SMD                                    
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1117 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE FOG IN THE EAST              
AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.                     
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH            
CENTRAL CANADA. WEAK SHORTWAVE ARE MOVING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE             
AND MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A              
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM              
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.                              
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER                
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL               
SIT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED              
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. MUCAPE VALUES WILL             
REACH AROUND 4000J/KG OVER WESTERN U.P. WHILE OVER THE LAKE MUCAPE              
WILL REACH ONLY 400J/KG. A THETA-E RIDGE WILL HANG AROUND THE                   
WESTERN U.P. WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND 600MB AND COLD AIR ADVECTION             
BELOW 700MB WILL DEVELOP CAP WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP              
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS VERY DRY. ETA12 SOUNDING FORECAST               
INDICATE A MOIST LAYER AROUND 850MB OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. THUS                  
LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER            
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
725 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL SHORTLY UPDATE TO REMOVE PATCHY FOG WORDING FROM EARLY MORNING             
FORECAST. SUNRISE AND WINDS/MIXING FROM THIS JUNCTURE SHOULD THWART             
FOG.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VIRTUALLY VFR TAF FORECASTS FOR ENTIRE 24 HOURS. EXCEPTION FOR                  
VISIBILITY FOR KFNT SITE FOR 5 MILES IN MIST SHOULD BE MIXED OUT BY             
13Z. CEILINGS ALL UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT FOR SOME BROKEN HIGH LEVEL MID            
CLOUDS NORTH SITES THIS MORNING. THICK CLOUDS MOVING DOWN FROM THE              
NORTHERN LAKES CONVECTION EARLIER HAVE CONTINUED TO THIN.                       
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON                         
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS DEPICTING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER               
NORTHERN LAKES REGION PRETTY MUCH WASHING OUT AS IT SLICES SOUTHEAST            
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE AT 500 MB HEIGHTS TENDING TO SLOWLY RISE             
THROUGH TONIGHT. VIGOROUS CONVECTION EARLIER ALONG NORTHERN FRONT               
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WHILE SETTLING SOUTHWARD...AS ASSOCIATED              
CLOUDINESS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EXTENDS DOWN INTO NORTHERN PART OF                 
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THIS CLOUD COVER TO SHOW A STEADY THINNING                
TREND EARLY THIS MORNING...ALREADY UNDERWAY AS PER WARMING IR TOPS              
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.                                                           
WILL CONFINE CONVECTION MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE SAGINAW VALLEY AND             
THUMB THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY RUC13 AND WRFXX...AS DAYTIME                
HEATING HAS A CHANCE TO WORK WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF COLD FRONT...WITH             
ESPECIALLY NAM DEPICTING QUITE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS AND K              
INDICES TO AT LEAST 30...WITH FAIRLY STEEP 850 TO 700 MB LAPSE                  
RATES. MOISTURE...LIMITED AS IT IS...WILL ALSO BE BEST IN THE                   
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. DYNAMICS WEAK THIS AFTERNOON AS              
WELL...IN TERMS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA                       
LIFT...SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT SURFACE              
WIND CONVERGENCE. IN SOUTHERN ZONES...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE              
MORE IN CONTROL...AND ANY CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY TOO ISOLATED              
FOR FORECAST MENTION.                                                           
AM GOING CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS BOTH               
NAM AND NGM T1 TEMPERATURES ARE 3 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER THAN              
YESTERDAY...BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP TO CLOSE TO 90 TODAY.              
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON                                              
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MAINLY                
WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM ACROSS            
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HAVE NOT BEEN TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE WAY               
THE NAM HAS HANDLED CONVECTION RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...LOCAL WRF-XX             
OFFERS A SCENARIO SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE GFS. AT THIS POINT WILL               
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS DRIER THROUGH               
MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT WITH THE                       
APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK /ALTHOUGH THE TIMING HAS                
BECOME INCREASINGLY NOT AS LATE IN THE WEEK GIVEN MODEL TRENDS OVER             
THE PAST FEW DAYS/. GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST                  
COUPLE RUNS...AND AGAIN HAS SUPPORT FROM OTHER EXTENDED MODELS.                 
WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH HIGH                
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE EXTEND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE             
REGION. DECENT CAP APPARENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY                  
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH. MAIN AREA IN QUESTION            
FOR POPS IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA/THUMB OUT INTO LAKE                         
HURON...CLOSER TO THE WEAK TROUGH AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CWA.                
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. GRADIENT FLOW            
REMAINS OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHICH WITH A LARGE              
LAND/LAKE DELTA-T COULD LEAD TO MORE OF A TRUE UPRIGHT LAKE BREEZE              
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE THUMB...WHICH MAY ALSO AID CONVECTIVE                    
POTENTIAL. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND TUESDAY IS WITH SYNOPTIC                
LIFT...AS WEAK 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME NEUTRAL BY             
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WILL STICK WITH THE DRY                        
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.                           
NAM IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE SWINGING MCS REMNANTS ACROSS LOWER                    
MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NAM HAS BEEN             
OVERDONE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN RECENTLY. GFS INDICATES                      
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE                
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE                   
REACHING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AND WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR            
NOW. NAM IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/WRF-XX WITH 850MB TEMPS ON                 
WEDNESDAY. FEEL THAT GFS MAY BE TOO COOL...DUE TO CONVECTIVE                    
FEEDBACK FROM COMPLEXES UPSTREAM. WILL STICK WITH MORE OF A MIDDLE              
OF THE ROAD SOLUTION...KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THOSE ON                    
TUESDAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S.                                             
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ETA WITH             
THE SPEED OF THE NEXT FRONT. ACTUALLY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SIMILAR            
WRF-XX AS IT HAS A TIGHTER SURFACE REFLECTION NOT AS CONTAMINATED BY            
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT RUNS BRING THE THROUGH                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY                  
FRIDAY. ADJUSTED TIMING ON THE FRONT SIDE A BIT...BRINGING IN A                 
CHANCE TSRA ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GRIDS STILL LOOK GOOD            
ON THE BACK SIDE...STILL KEEPING A CHANCE INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO                
COVER TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL STICK WITH A FLAT 30 PERCENT AT                
THIS POINT. OVERALL EVENT LOOKS WORTHY OF A HIGHER POP...BUT WILL               
STICK WITH 30 FOR NOW GIVEN THE BORDER PERIOD TIMING ISSUES AS WELL             
AS THE OVERALL SPEED/TIMING TRENDS WITH THE SYSTEM. ATMOSPHERE DRIES            
OUT AND TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO NEAR/JUST BELOW NORMAL BY THE                 
WEEKEND.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...DWD                                                           
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....BRAVENDER                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1117 AM CDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE ANY MORNING WORDING. MADE SOME                 
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS THROUGH 18Z...CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE LIFTED AND           
CU HAVE NOT FILLED IN JUST YET...SO NORTHWEST HALF WAS MOSTLY CLEAR.            
A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW WAS FROM THE             
SOUTHEAST...BUT VAD PROFILE AND RUC ANALYSIS BOTH SHOW WEAK NORTHEAST           
FLOW...SUSPECT STORMS WILL DEVELOP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. PW VALUES              
REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE                          
EXPECTED...WILL CONSIDER ADDING HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING TO THE HWO FOR           
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE COSMETIC OR RELATED           
TO THE GRIDS...UPDATE JUST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...SO             
WILL CONTINUE WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...2-3 MILES...FOR THE                   
AFTERNOONS. WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO REACH JAN...MEI...HBG WILL CONTINUE           
STRATUS FOR THE EARLY MORNING. MODELS SHOW RAIN LINGERING TO THE EAST           
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO MAY LEAVE VCSH IN FOR HBG/MEI. OTHERWISE...MORE            
OF THE SAME FOR ANOTHER DAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       89  71  89  73 /  60  20  60  20                                  
MERIDIAN      89  70  88  70 /  60  30  80  30                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
07/99/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
955 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
VIS SATL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BREAK OUT ACRS C            
NY/NE PA AS THE AFTERNOON BEGINS. CLOUDS WERE ERODING AND WILL CONT             
TO DO SO. CURRENT SFC DWPTS AND LL MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORT                    
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S BY MID AFTRN. WITH INSOLATION SEE MAX                
TEMPS UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S MOST PLACES. USING THE 12Z BUF                 
SOUNDINGS WHICH HAS PREDOMINATELY WRLY FLO...MODIFIED IT WITH T=86F             
TD=65F AND USED A MEAN LAYER OF THE LOWEST 100 MB AND CAME UP WITH              
ABT 1750 J/KG CAPE. LOCALLY WHERE TEMPS ARE HIGHER CUD SEE CAPES                
CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG.                                                             
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING SE TWD ERN NY                     
STATE. THIS WAVE INCREASES THE FLO ALOFT WHICH IN TURN INCREASES THE            
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODELS INDICATES 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS             
ACRS THE NRN/ERN PART OF CWA LATE TODAY. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS MORE               
MARGINAL BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS IN THE SAME AREAS. IN                            
ADDTN...SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR POISE TO MOV IN AT MID-LVL/S AS                
THIS SHRT WAVE TRACKS S AND E. GIVEN THE PROJECTED                              
CAPES...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COINCIDING WITH MAX HEATING              
AND DRY ADVECTION ALOFT AT THE SAME TIME...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A               
FEW SEVERE STORMS. I CAN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THE CELLS BEGIN TO                
FIRE IN THE NRN PART OF BGM CWA AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZES            
TWD EVE AS THEY WORK S AND E...PROBABLY E OF OUR AREA. CONCUR WITH              
SPC ON SLGHT RISK FOR OUR REGION AND WILL ISSUE AN OUTLOOK                      
STATEMENT. WILL ALSO UPDATE HWO TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.                         
WILL WAIT FOR 10 AM OBS AND ADJUST MAXES IF NEEDED. ZONES AND GRIDS             
WILL BE OUT BEFORE 1030 AM. - NICOSIA                                           
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM (THRU TUE)                                                  
COMPLEX YET SUBTLE PTRN DETERMINING THE DVLPMT AND CONTINUATION OF              
CONV ELEMENTS. THIS MRNG...MESOSCALE TROF...RDG...TROF SFC SETUP.               
MCC OVER NRN MI AND SE ONTARIO HAS BEEN DROPPING INTO THE STUBBORN              
MESO RDG OVER WRN NY AND ERODING. BOTH THE LATEST RUC AND NAM RUNS              
SHOW THIS FEATURE HOLDING FAST AND KEEPING THIS CONV WELL NORTH OF              
THE FCST AREA. HWVR...BOTH CONT TO SHOW CONV ALONG THE WEAK SFC                 
TROF/BNDRY OVER CNTRL AND ERN NY AND NRN PA. STILL THE PSBLTY THAT              
SOMETHING COULD DVLP...BUT BNDRY/S BEEN QUIET THRU THE NGT. BNDRIES             
ARE SO WEAK...THERE DFCLT TO TRACK BUT IT SEEMS AS THOUGH YET                   
ANOTHER...OR THE SAME...OLD BNDRY SETTLES SWRD LTR THIS AFTN AND                
FEED ON THE GNRL INSTABILITY TO DVLP MORE TRWS. XPCT CONV TO DVLP               
OVER CNTRL NY THIS AFTN AND SETTLE INTO NRN PA THIS EVE. SOME                   
BORDERLINE SVR WX SUN AFTN...AND SOME PSBL AGAIN TODAY. WIND FIELDS             
ARE SLGTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE...ESP OVER NY...SO SOME ISLTD WIND DAMAGE            
RPTS PSBL.                                                                      
ACTIVITY SHD TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVE AND OVRNGT HRS SHD BE DRY AS            
THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. GNRLY STABLE ON TUE HGTS BLD. NAM SHOWS A               
WEAK SHRT WV DROPPING THRU THE RDG AND WEAKENS THE CAPPING OVER PA              
AND XTRM WRN NY. SEEMS LIKE ANY PSBLTY OF TRWS OVER THE FCST AREA IS            
LIMITED...BUT WILL NOT ADJUST CRNT FCST OF LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE             
XTRM SW. THAT AREA WLD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.                                    
MINOR TWEAKS OF TEMPS AND POPS TO FIT LATEST MODEL AND MOS                      
CONSENSUS...OTRW NO MAJOR CHGS TO THE FCST THIS UPDATE. -MORFORD                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...                                          
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR                 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  WEAK                   
FORCING COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS BUT LEFT OUT AS SURFACE HIGH                 
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN THU PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING               
ALOFT.  WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HUMIDITY AND A TAD MORE HEAT WILL             
RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS MORE               
PUSH WITH A WEAK UL TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE.  QUESTION IS ABOUT               
TIMING WITH A FEW MODELS INCLUDING DGEX A FEW HOURS FASTER.  THIS               
WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND LESS HEATING.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE                  
LATELY FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AND                  
THROUGH NY THEN STALLS IN PA.  LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO SAT             
NGT BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.  FOLLOWED HPC               
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. -TAC                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (01/06Z - 02/06Z)                                                     
SOME LGT FOG THIS MRNG RESULTING IN MVFR CONDS SOME STATIONS. ANY               
IFR CONDS SHD BE BRIEF. VFR CONDS SHD RULE THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST            
PD. SCT CONV WILL LIKELY DVLP THIS AFTN WITH GUSTY WINDS AND                    
BRIEFLY LWR CONDS.                                                              
 &&                                                                             
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...SFC FNTL BNDRY NOW LINGERING OFFSHORE ALONG               
WITH NRN END OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS. AXIS IS LYING                    
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A KVDI-KSAV-KHXD-41004 LINE AS EVIDENT BY                   
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND KCLX 88D RADAR TRENDS. WITH SOLID NELY FLOW             
N OF THIS LINE...ALONG WITH LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM YDA AND              
OVR...WIDESPREAD LLVL CLOUD COVER IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.                   
MEANWHILE...S OF THIS AXIS IS SEEING MORE CU ALONG WITH MORE BREAKS             
IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SFC HEATING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF             
THE 2.3 INCH PWAT...3200 CAPE AND LOW LFC THIS AFTN. MAIN CONCERN IS            
COVERAGE OF PRECIP. RUC/M-ETA HINT THAT THE BNDRY MAY RETREAT NWD               
THRU THE DAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE               
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EVEN SO...IT WOULD TAKE A LOT OF LIFT TO               
BREAK THE THICK CLOUD COVER OVER THE SC PORTION OF THE CWFA. HAVE               
OPTED TO SCALE BACK POPS TO 50 FOR FAR NRN INLAND PORTIONS OF THE               
CWFA FOLLOWED BY 60S IN CENTRAL AND COASTAL SC PORTIONS FOLLOWED BY             
70S FOR SRN SE GA.                                                              
AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE HAZARDS TDA...MOST PROMINENT IS HVY RAINFALL.              
WINDS THRU H5 ARE VIRTUALLY NIL MAKING STORM MOTIONS RATHER WEAK.               
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA HAS RECEIVED 2-5               
INCHES OF RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ANY SLOW MOVING STRONG             
STORM CAN EASILY EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS. DOWNBURSTS ARE NOT AS            
MUCH OF A THREAT WITH LESSENING VERTICAL MOTIONS...BUT BOUNDARY                 
COLLISIONS CAN MAKE FOR GUSTY WINDS. SEABREEZE MAY NOT MAKE AS MUCH             
LAND PENETRATION DUE TO CLOUDS HOLD BACK OPTIMUM LAND HEATING.                  
SPEAKING OF WHICH...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE               
TEMPS ARE BELOW THE CURVE TWD FCST MAX TEMPS. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS            
BY 1-2 DEGREES WHICH DROPS SOME LOCATIONS INTO A LOWER CATEGORY.                
WILL ISSUE UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS FOR ALL THESE CHANGES.             
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...CONTINUED LGT WINDS AND TRANQUIL SEAS. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY            
BE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO WOBBLING OF SFC BNDRIES BUT XPCT OVERALL                 
TREND OF NE WINDS TO PERSIST. WILL MAKE MINOR INITIALIZATION TWEAKS             
BUT OVERALL THINKING IS GOOD.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AT BOTH TERMS MAKING FOR A ROUGH START TDA. LOW            
CIGS LOOK TO STEADILY THIN OUT TO SCT WHILE UPR LVL MOISTURE HOLDS              
HIGH LVL BKN/OVC SKIES. KSAV MAY SEE A BIT MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS            
THAN KCHS. MAIN CONCERN IS AGAIN TIMING OF PRECIP. HARD TO ARGUE                
WITH WHAT 01/12Z TAFS HAVE GOING FOR TIMING AS PRECIP WILL BE                   
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN THE AFTN HRS...SO WILL MONITOR AND AMD                 
IF/AS NEEDED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
214 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                  
A TYPICAL MID SUMMER DAY IN PROGRESS WITH TEMPS EVERYWHERE IN THE               
80S AND DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE NOTICEABLE TO MUGGY RANGE. STILL               
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION CAUSING ANY PROBLEMS. INCREASINGLY              
WARM MID LEVELS...AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING...ARE COMBINING TO              
KEEP A LID ON THINGS SO FAR TODAY. CLOUDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE                     
ENHANCED NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE RUC AND ETA12 BOTH SEEM TO WANT               
TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...POSSIBLY CENTERED AROUND THE LAKE                 
BREEZES...AND THEN MIGRATE IT SOUTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY AND                
EARLY EVENING. HAVE PUT MY HIGHEST CHC POPS...STILL JUST                        
SLIGHT...OVER MY NORTHERN TIER DOWN INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF                
THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY. A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED                 
OUT.                                                                            
WEAK FORCING AND LAZY SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL LAST THRU TUESDAY.                
GUID SUGGESTS 850 TEMPS A DEG OR 2 WARMER THAN TODAY...SO IT SHUD               
FOLLOW THAT SFC TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A TAD WARMER. KEEPING THE SAME               
LOW TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUE NIGHT.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                        
TEMPS ALOFT TODAY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. ESTIMATED VIL OF THE DAY IS                
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE MID 50S. SO FAR NOTHING GOING ON                  
TODAY...WIND SHIFT LINE HAS MOVED PAST THE AREA...AND SLIGHTLY                  
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN. OVERALL...THIS WILL BE THE TREND THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS. MODELS DID HINT THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT NE PA MIGHT GET                
SOMETHING LATER TODAY AND OR ON TUE. SOME STRONGER CELLS OVER                   
ONTARIO...COULD TRY TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE EDGE OF OUR CWA...BUT              
THAT IS ABOUT ALL I SEE GOING ON THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME HINTS OF A              
MCS LATE WED INTO THU ACROSS NW PA...BUT OTHERWISE DRY. DID GO                  
WITH A CHC FOR FAR NW COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.                                  
FRONT STILL DROPS SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SAT. STILL              
SOME HINTS THAT FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. HOWEVER...AFTER SATURDAY                  
NIGHT...WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GFS HARD               
TO FOLLOW WITH WHERE THINGS COME AND GO...COULD BE CONVECTIVE                   
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. TEMPS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.                       
LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD SHOWERS TO SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF NEEDED.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE ISSUES HAVE DISSIPATED TO A              
NICE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LINGERING MVFR HAZE CONCERNS OVER THE             
LOWER SUSQ. WILL LIKELY SEE VIS LOWERING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE            
HUMID AIRMASS WITH A SVRL HOUR PERIOD NEEDED EARLY TUESDAY TO BURN              
OFF THE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.                                                    
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED             
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LACORTE                                                            
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...LACORTE                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa