EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
900 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                      
CURRENT...LOCAL METARS NICELY DEPICT THE INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK               
LOW ALONG IT...OFFSHORE KSGJ-KX47. DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT TO W-NW               
ALONG THIS FEATURE...WITH DEWPOINTS @8-10F HIGHER OUT AHEAD OF IT.              
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANLYS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT/SHEAR AXIS                   
EXTENDING WSW-ENE ACROSS THE CTRL/ERN GOMEX AND FL. SOME MID LEVEL              
OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY STRATIFORM -RA OVER/OFFSHORE SW            
FL. BASED ON LACK OF ECHOES OFFSHORE NORTH OF KSRQ...WILL ASSUME NIL            
PRECIP BENEATH THE UPPER GUNGE THAT FAR NORTH...EVEN FARTHER WEST IN            
THE GOMEX. SOME DENSE SEA/FOG STRATUS ALSO NOTED ACROSS NE FL/SE GA             
...WEST OF THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE.                                               
FCST...W/R/T THE PRECIP TO THE SW...ANTICIPATE THROWING IN A 20/30              
POP FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SRN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS MENTION            
SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS KMLB. HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING FOG IMAGERY               
USELESS...SO WILL NEED TO VIGILANTLY MONITOR SURFACE DATA TO DETECT             
IF THE FOG SEEPS SOUTHWARD INTO VOLUSIA (AND POSSIBLY LAKE) COUNTY              
OVERNIGHT. CALLS TO THE KX47 (BUNNELL) AWOS SHOWED THE FOG HAD YET              
TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT FOR               
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
MARINE...WITH INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING BACK OFFSHORE ATTM...WINDS                
HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AT BOTH 41009/41010. SWELLS ARE INDEED               
COMING DOWN AS ANTICIPATED...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND STEP DOWN TO A                
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR SEAS...AND DROP THE CAUTION SOUTH OF COF.              
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
921 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                      
SOUTH FLORIDA AWOKE THIS MORNING UNDER AN ALMOST COMPLETELY OVERCAST            
SKY. CULPRIT APPEARS TO BE LOW LEVEL (300-305K) ISENTROPIC LIFT                 
DEPICTED QUITE WELL THIS MORNING BY SHORT-TERM RUC40/WSETA MODELS               
BUT EVEN LAST NIGHT'S MID RANGE 72 HOUR RUN OF 06Z AVN. ALSO, S FLA             
WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JETLET WHICH            
MOVED OVER S FLA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE            
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFFECTING MAINLY COLLIER, MAINLAND                
MONROE, MIAMI-DADE BROWARD AND COASTAL PALM BEACH.                              
BY THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS DEPICT THE JET NO LONGER AFFECTING S FLA              
AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMING A DOWNWARD MOTION FEATURE AS WELL              
BUT TEMPORARILY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS PLUS            
REMNANTS OF THE OLD CLOSED LOW THAT WAS ONCE OVER BAJA AND NOW OVER             
OLD MEXICO SOUTH OF TEXAS MOVE IN TANDEM EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLA              
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AGAIN MOISTENING UP THE ATMOSPHERE WITH JET               
DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUT THAT'S THIS AFTERNOONS' FORECAST.             
FOR THE UPDATES, EXPECT THE CLOUDY SKIES OVER S FLA TO ABATE A BIT              
TO A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WORDING IN THE ZONES NEED TO BE                    
ADJUSTED. WITH DIMISHING ISENTROPIC LIFT, EXPECT THE CURRENT                    
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO END OVER             
LAND BUT POSSIBLY CONTINUE IN THE ATLC. WILL HANDLE THIS WITH                   
NOWCASTS AT THE TIME. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY AFFECT THE                  
FORECASTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM BEING REACHED. THE EAST COAST              
HAS A BETTER CHANCE SINCE THE FLOW HAS BEGUN OFF THE THE ATLC BUT               
THE WATER IS IN THE LOWER 70S. THE INTERIOR AND WEST WILL PROBABLY              
BE COOLER.                                                                      
IN THE MARINE ZONES, 2K RAOB WINDS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED AN               
EASTERLY FLOW AND BUOYS ALONG THE E COAST AND IN THE STRAITS SUPPORT            
THIS. WILL REWORD COASTALS AS NEEDED AS WIND SHIFT HAS OCCURRED. AT             
THE MOMENT SPEEDS APPEAR FINE.                                                  
.MIA...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
900 EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                         
01Z SFC CHART SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS OH/KY/TN.                    
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AHEAD OF                  
IT...EXCEPT IN IL/IN WHERE THEY ARE UNDER CLR OR NEARLY CLR SKIES.              
RADAR RETURNS THUS FAR THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY VIRGA. SFC OBS                   
SHOWING THAT TEMPS ARE STAYING UP UNDER CLOUD COVER AND                         
WINDS/MIXING. TEMPS RUNNING UPPER 40S VALLEYS TO LOWER 50S RIDGES               
AND MORE OPEN AREAS.                                                            
WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO RAISE TEMPS A CATEGORY. NOT REALLY                 
EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR (OR PARTIAL CLEARING) UNTIL AROUND/TOWARD              
SUNRISE. CHC POPS ALSO A TOUGH CALL TNGHT. 18Z MESO-ETA RUN LATCHES             
ONTO PCPN OVER E AR AND W TN AND RUNS IT ACROSS TN/S KY OVERNIGHT.              
RUC MODEL SIMILAR. THIS LOOKS A BIT IFFY WITH THE LOW LEVELS BEING              
SO DRY. SPRINKLES MIGHT BE THE BETTER WAY TO GO...WILL MAKE FINAL               
DECISION ON THAT HERE SHORTLY.                                                  
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HALL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1045 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                     
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT CLOUDS HAVE               
BECOME SCATTERED MOST SPOTS BUT MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM SO HAVE WORDED             
FORECAST BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NEW MESO ETA              
AND RUC SLOWS DOWN APPROACHING SYSTEM WHILE PINPOINTING BEST                    
LIFT/MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN OUT POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS               
NORTHERN ZONES ACROSS N LOWER AND LOWERED POPS CENTRAL ZONES BUT                
KEPT LIKELY POPS FAR SOUTH. ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                            
THANKS TO GRR FOR THEIR COORDINATION                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SULLIVAN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1100 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                     
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN TIP OF THE              
UP WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO NRN IL. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD            
FRONT ARE ROUGHLY 10 DEGRESS COLDER THAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST             
VIS LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS SW LWR IN AREAS                 
WHERE SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR. AS THE FRONT AND UPR SHORT WAVE MOVE             
THRU THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL COVER THE FCST AREA; RUC FCST                   
SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE NEAR 900 MB. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS              
SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MI...CLOSER TO THE LOW. SOME OF             
THIS PCPN WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH            
THE RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS I SUSPECT             
THAT MUCH OF THIS PCPN WILL GO TO VIRGA. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE WITH               
THE SMALL AREA OF LIGHT PCPN IN THE SRN PART OF THE LAKE. WILL KEEP             
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR IT. CAA WILL BUILD IN             
BEHIND THE FRONT AND KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE NORTH. WE'LL PROBABLY             
SEE TEMPS RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SOUTH. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES            
TO THE GOING FCST...JUST A TWEAK OR TWO.                                        
93                                                                              
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1150 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                     
.DISC...MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR ONGOING CLOUDS...RAISE A FEW MAXES           
AND WINDS.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                    
.BOTTOM LINE...NRN STREAM DOMINATES WX NERN US TIL MID/LT NEXT                  
WEEK...RSLTG IN ONLY LOW QPF EVENTS.                                            
.PROBLEM OF DAY...RN SHWRS LT TDA WRN ADRNDCKS?  RS POPS TO LKLY SAT            
NGT N/W?                                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD ULVL RDG INVOF LEFT CST NOAM.  VERY BROAD TROAL               
OVER ERN NOAM/WRN ATLC SHARPENS OVR RIGHT CST BY SUN.  ELONGATED                
HIPRES RDG MID ATLC CST ENE ACRS WRN ATLC.  SERIES WK LOPRES/S FM               
CNDN PLNS EWD TO CNTRL GRTLKS BCMS MORE CONSOLIDATED SAT WHILE                  
SPRAWLING FM SERN QUE PROVINCE TO SRN ONT PROVINCE.  AS TROAL                   
SHARPENS SAT...WRN ATLC LOPRES DPNS WHILE MOVG NEWD FM OFF MID ATLC             
CST.  THIS SYS FCST TO BE WELL E CAPE COD BY SAT EVE AND NOT XPC TO             
AFFECT CWA.                                                                     
.MDLS...AVN/ETA/META/RAFS/2 CNDN MDLS/MM5 SUNYSB EXAMINED FOR THIS              
FCST.  LRG/SCL FEATURES SIMILAR THRU H+48/H+60.  AVN IS SOMEWHAT                
STGR THAN ETA REGARDING LOPRES MOVG NEWD OFF ATLC CST SAT.  NCEP                
PREFERS COMPROMISE BTWN WKR ETA AND STGR AVN.  NO WDSPRD QP FCST TIL            
SAT NGT...AND THAT/S MNLY N/W CWA.  ETA QPF SUGGEST CUPL INCHES SNW             
SAT NGT ADRNDCKS/WRN MHKVLY.  RAFS ENHANCES SOME QP SERN HLF CWA LT             
FRI NGT...WHICH NO OTHER MDL FCSTS.                                             
.SHORT TERM...STLT LOOP/SFC OBS SHOW HI CLDNS MOVG EWD ACRS CWA                 
ATTM.  RUC40 INDCS WAA W LOW H10/5 RH OVR ALL OF NY.  NRST QP IS                
WELL N OF NY AND IS ASSOC W QSTNRY FNT ENE FM NRN GRTLKS.  H10/H5 RH            
FCST TO INCR TDA...BUT MDLS ARE DRY.  AND XCP FOR KUCA WHERE MAV                
POP 33 PCT...MOS POPS BLO THRESHOLD TDA.  PREV ZNS INDC CHC RN SHWRS            
LT FOR ADRNDCKS...OTRW DRY.  WL STAY W THE PREV FCST AS MDLS INDC               
SOME LGT QP JUST TO NW OF CWA LT...AND MAV POP 33 AT KUCA.  SHOULD              
BE NICE AND MILD AS SLY CRCLN/WAA CONTS.  MOS MAXT IN 40S THRUT.                
.LONG TERM...COOLING OCRS ALF TNGT AS S/W TROAL MOVS INTO CNTRL NY              
LT.  BIG DIFFERENCES BTWN RAFS/BASED FWC AND AVN BASED MAV POPS FOR             
TNGT.  MAV GENLLY MUCH LWR THAN FWC.  PREFER MAV AS META/GEM ARE                
ESSENTIALLY DRY...XCP FOR SOME SPOTTY QP NRN ZNS.  PREV FCST HAD                
LKLY POP N/W CHC ELSW AND MXD PTYPE.  THIS LOOKS OKAY...THO POPS MAY            
BE A BIT HI IN MUCH OF CWA.  MAV POP AT KUCA 59 PCT...SO ACPT LKLY              
POP N/W PER META/GEM QPF FCST.  MOS MIN/T MNLY 30/35 OKAY.                      
FOR SAT...MDLS MNLY DRY.  MAV POPS GENLLY BLO THRESHOLD/FWC ABV.                
PREFER MAV.  GOING ZN FCST HAS CHC POP THRUT AND WRN/NRN ZNS ARE                
WORDED MUCH CDR.  CDR PERHAPS...MUCH CDR NO...DUE TO BACKING SFC WND            
AS WK LOPRES APCHS VIA GRTLKS.  NEITHER H10/H8 THKNS NOR MOS INDC               
THAT IT/LL BE MUCH CDR.  MM5 FCST SNDGS SAY LTLCG. SO WL MODIFY                 
WORDING.  MOS FCST MAXT M30S/M40S SAT...AND WL GO W IT.  MDLS HAVE              
SPOTTY LGT QP SAT...SO WL STICK W PREV ZNS AND KEEP CHC POP IN FCST.            
.XTND FCST...CNDN GLOBAL/AVN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU H+120.               
WK LOPRES RUNS ESE ACRS NRN NY/SRN VT SUN NGT.  MOIST NLY LLVL CRCLN            
ACRS CWA SUN.  HIPRES BLDS OVR CWA MON AND OFF ATLC CST TUE RSLTG IN            
WRMG.  AVN/CNDN GLOBAL FCSTG MNLY DRY SUN...TOTALLY DRY MON/TUE.                
MOS POPS HAVE LOW CHC IN MUCH OF CWA SAT NGT.  BASED ON ETA                     
FCST...AM INCLINED TO RAISE TO LKLY IN N/W CWA.  BUT SINCE PREV ZNS             
AGREE WELL W CURRENT MOS FOR SAT NGT...WL STAY W PREV FCST.  WL ALSO            
GO W PREV XTND PORTION OF FCST IN THE 4 AM ZNS.                                 
.ALY...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                     
LOOKING AT THE 6 UTC ETA AND THE MOST RECENT RUC...IT APPEARS THAT              
RETURN FLOW STRATO-CU WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTN IN THE SE ZONES.              
12 UTC RAOBS SHOW THAT UPSTREAM H5-H3 LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY                   
DRY...AT LEAST S OF THE NC/SC BORDER. THUS...WL MOSTLY MOSTLY SUNNY             
SC ZONES TDA...BUT KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY NC TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH CLOUDS.            
WL BUMP UP TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEG AS LOCAL TEMP SCHEME HAS HIGHS AROUND              
60 MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND SRN NC PIEDMONT.                                     
FCSTID = 14                                                                     
GSP   60  38  63  36 /   0  20  10   0                                          
AND   61  38  63  36 /   0  20  10   0                                          
CLT   60  39  63  36 /  10  20  20   0                                          
HKY   58  38  59  33 /   0  20  20  10                                          
AVL   55  36  54  30 /  10  30  20  20                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
810 PM MST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                      
TREND THROUGH 2Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENING            
ACROSS CWA. MOST OF THE OBS SHOW WINDS LETTING UP SOME. 1Z RUC                  
FORECASTS THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. SO WILL DROP WINDS ABOUT 5 MPH AND            
ADJUST LOWS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.            
.UNR...NONE.                                                                    
RUDGE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1135 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2002                                                     
SEA FOG HAS SPREAD THROUGH FLAGLER AND INTO NE VOLUSIA COUNTY OVER              
THE PAST 2HRS. CALLS TO LAKE/VOLUSIA S.O.'S INDICATE IT IS CONFINED             
TO NE VOLUSIA WITH LITTLE IF ANY WEST OF I-95 AND NOTHING AT ALL IN             
LAKE COUNTY. WITH WINDS VEERING TO NW...NO MECHANISM FOR THIS TO                
SPREAD WWD...BUT IT COULD COME SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.              
ALSO...SINCE IT'S NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE NPW/UPDATE HWO...              
WILL USE NOW'S TO HANDLE...AND THROW OUT QUICK ONE-ZONE ZFP UPDATE.             
------------------------------------------------------------------              
PREV DISC...                                                                    
CURRENT...LOCAL METARS NICELY DEPICT THE INVERTED TROUGH AND WEAK               
LOW ALONG IT...OFFSHORE KSGJ-KX47. DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT TO W-NW               
ALONG THIS FEATURE...WITH DEWPOINTS @8-10F HIGHER OUT AHEAD OF IT.              
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANLYS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORT/SHEAR AXIS                   
EXTENDING WSW-ENE ACROSS THE CTRL/ERN GOMEX AND FL. SOME MID LEVEL              
OVERRUNNING IS PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY STRATIFORM -RA OVER/OFFSHORE SW            
FL. BASED ON LACK OF ECHOES OFFSHORE NORTH OF KSRQ...WILL ASSUME NIL            
PRECIP BENEATH THE UPPER GUNGE THAT FAR NORTH...EVEN FARTHER WEST IN            
THE GOMEX. SOME DENSE SEA/FOG STRATUS ALSO NOTED ACROSS NE FL/SE GA             
...WEST OF THE WEAK LOW OFFSHORE.                                               
FCST...W/R/T THE PRECIP TO THE SW...ANTICIPATE THROWING IN A 20/30              
POP FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SRN COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS MENTION            
SPRINKLES AS FAR NORTH AS KMLB. HIGH CLOUDS RENDERING FOG IMAGERY               
USELESS...SO WILL NEED TO VIGILANTLY MONITOR SURFACE DATA TO DETECT             
IF THE FOG SEEPS SOUTHWARD INTO VOLUSIA (AND POSSIBLY LAKE) COUNTY              
OVERNIGHT. CALLS TO THE KX47 (BUNNELL) AWOS SHOWED THE FOG HAD YET              
TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IT FOR               
THE TIME BEING.                                                                 
MARINE...WITH INVERTED TROUGH PUSHING BACK OFFSHORE ATTM...WINDS                
HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY AT BOTH 41009/41010. SWELLS ARE INDEED               
COMING DOWN AS ANTICIPATED...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND STEP DOWN TO A                
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR SEAS...AND DROP THE CAUTION SOUTH OF COF.              
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
230 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 08Z SHOWS SHORTWAVE DROPPING S-SE INTO MN                
ARROWHEAD ROUNDING BASE OF EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. INITIAL FORECAST            
CHALLENGE IS POTENTIAL FOR -SN OR -RA AS SHORTWAVE PASSES TO NE                 
TODAY. THEN FOCUS TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND BEYOND.                      
SHORT TERM MODELS APPEARED TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR WEST WITH VORT                  
CENTER LOCATION COMPARED TO SATELLITE TRENDS. AVN ONLY MODEL PLACING            
QPF INTO EXTREME NE IA AT 06Z AND MORE WIDESPREAD WITH VORT PASSAGE             
AT 18Z. REGIONAL RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE -SN/-RA MAINLY              
FROM MSP TO MKE AXIS AT 07Z. ETA LOOKS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON                   
SITUATION BY 12Z AND THEN KEEPS MEASUREABLE PRECIP WELL TO NORTHEAST            
AT 18Z. WILL KEEP LOW SCATTERED POPS IN NW IL ZONES FOR MAINLY                  
MORNING AS STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH QG FORCING FROM              
SHORTWAVE TOWARD 18Z. ELSEWHERE TO W AND SW...MESOETA AND RUC                   
INDICATE DECENT OMEGA WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE...BUT SUFFICIENT              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING THERE AND WILL CONTINUE ONLY SPRINKLES OR            
FLURRIES WORDING THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE FROM RIGHT EXIT REGION              
OF H3 JET DIVING S WILL BEGIN CLEARING TREND IN SE IA ZONES IN                  
AFTERNOON...WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS LINGERING NE            
OF A SQI-CID LINE INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS AND BRISK NW WINDS IN               
PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOK ON TRACK...AND WILL STAY ON WARM SIDE OF                  
GUIDANCE. SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO IA BY DAWN SUNDAY. GUIDANCE                 
LOOKS TOO WARM WITH LOWS FOR IA ZONES BASED ON DRY AIRMASS AND IDEAL            
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WILL UNDERCUT THERE BUT STAY CLOSE TO MOS IN            
IL.                                                                             
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS CWFA AND PREVENTS MUCH MIXING             
UNTIL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOWARD EVENING. GUIDANCE HIGHS                
LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE AND LACK OF SNOW COVER. WILL                  
CONTINUE GOING FORECAST TREND OF ONE CATEGORY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR                
HIGHS.                                                                          
50KT H85 JET PROGGED BY AVN STREAMING INTO IA ZONES BY MONDAY                   
EVENING AS LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND              
WEAK IMPULSES IN SW H5 FLOW SUPPORT GOING FORECAST PACKAGE SCENARIO             
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEST AND SCATTERED EAST...TRENDING            
TOWARD LIKELY FOR RAIN ACROSS CWFA BY TUESDAY AND WILL NOT CHANGE               
MUCH. LATEST AVN AND MRF A BIT FASTER AND WEAKER THAN OTHER MEDIUM              
RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATE             
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEFINITELY LOOKS LIKE A WET AND UNSETTLED                   
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF WEEK AND WILL LEAVE EXTENDED AS IS.                         
.DVN...                                                                         
IA...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
DLS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW TROF OVR THE ECNTRL CONUS            
DOWNSTREAM OF RDG OVR THE PAC NW/SW CAN. SVRL SHRTWVS APRNT DROPPING            
SE IN NWLY FLOW BTWN UPR RDG TO THE W AND TROF TO THE E. THE FIRST              
IS CURRENTLY IN THE CNTRL LKS...WITH A SFC TROF INTO ERN UPR MI.                
SOME ASSOCIATED LGT SN JUST DEPARTED THE ERN ZNS. ANOTHER FAIRLY                
POTENT SHRTWV DROPPING SE INTO NRN MN...AND H85 COLD FNT SUPPORTING             
ENHANCED CLD AHD OF THIS SHRTWV ENTERING WRN ZNS WITH SOME -SN RPRTD            
ACRS WRN CWA INTO NRN WI. ALTHOUGH PCPN APPEARS LIMITED BY DRY AIR              
ARND H7 AS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL SDNG...SOME LK/UPSLOPE                       
ENHANCEMENT OVR THE W HAS LWRD VSBY TO IFR. WEAK UPR RDGING/H7 DRY              
ADVCTN BTWN THESE TWO SHRTWVS CURRENTLY BRINGING DRY WX TO THE CNTRL            
ZNS. OVERALL...SFC/H85 TEMPS OVR THE NW LKS ARE WELL ABV NORMAL...              
WITH SFC/H85 READINGS GENERALLY 25 TO 35/-5 TO -8C. TEMPS BEHIND H85            
COLD FNT DROP TO -12C TO -15C...BUT MAJORITY OF REAL COLD AIR                   
BOTTLED UP OVR HUDSON BAY. ANOTHER SHRTWV APRNT OVR NRN                         
SASKATCHEWAN...WITH UPR AIR STN IN NE ALBERTA RPRTG A 100M 12HR H5              
HGT RISE BTWN 12Z-00Z IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYS.                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE SN/LES CHCS TDAY INTO                   
TNGT...THEN TEMPS LATER TNGT INTO MON AS TROF LIFTS OUT AND                     
PROGRESSIVE UPR RDG/WARMER AIR TRIES TO DISPLACE EXITING COLD AIR.              
FOR TDAY...BOTH ETA/AVN INDICATE VIGOROUS SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG WL              
DIG SHARPLY INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THIS EVNG...WITH MAJORITY OF PVA/             
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 UVV TRACKING JUST TO THE S. SFC OBS OF AXIS              
OF -SN STRETCHING FM NE MN INTO NW WI SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS FCST.                
HOWEVER...PATCH OF ENHANCED CLD SWINGING THRU WRN LK SUP SUGS THERE             
WL BE SOME UPR FORCG TO TRAVERSE EVEN THE NRN PART OF CWA BEFORE                
DYNAMICS EXIT SOON AFTR 12Z. H85 TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF H85 COLD FNT               
APPEAR MARGINAL FOR LK ENHANCEMENT...SO SN TOTALS INTO THE MRNG HRS             
SHUD BE NO MORE THAN A FEW INCHES  OVR THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE FAR W            
WHERE OBSVD WNW FLOW IS MOST FVRBL AND MOST PERSISTENT -SN NOW                  
FALLING. NXT QUESTION TO ANSWER IS EXTENT OF LES THAT DVLPS OVR CWA             
DURG AFTN IN THE WAKE OF H85 COLD FROPA THIS MRNG FOLLOWING PASSAGE             
OF SHRTWV TO THE S. AVN MOST AGGRESSIVE AT DRIVING COLD AIR INTO CWA            
WITH MORE OF A NLY FLOW... ITS FCST H85 TEMP OVR SCNTRL LK SUP BY               
00Z SUN DOWN TO -16C (VS -14C FOR ETA/NGM). TREND OF SHRTWVS TO DIG             
MORE SHARPLY THAN FCST AND FAIRLY HI AMPLITUDE APPEARANCE OF ERN                
TROF SUGS AVN FCST OF DEEPER PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR THAN ETA/NGM             
FCST TDAY IS ON TARGET...SO FOLLOWING AVN GUIDANCE TDAY. ARRIVAL OF             
COLD AIR ALSO IN PHASE WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV NOW IN NRN SASKATCHEWAN.            
AVN SHOWS AXIS OF H7 UVV/ H7 RH > 70 PCT MOVG N-S OVR CWA THIS                  
AFTN...SO XPCT AT LEAST 3HR PD OF LK ENHANCED SN WITH ENHANCED SFC              
CYC FLOW. LES CHART SHOWS 1-3 INCHES/6 HRS UNDER XPCTD                          
CIRCUMSTANCES...SO WL GO UP TO 3 INCHES IN MQT-ALGER ZNS WHERE XPCTD            
340 FLOW MOST FVRBL AND UPR MOISTENING MOST AGGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH FAR            
WRN ZNS APPEAR TO MISS OUT ON UPR MOISTENING...CONCERNED TREND FOR              
SHRTWV TO DIG MORE SHARPLY THAN FCST MIGHT RESULT IN MORE MOISTENING            
ALF OVR EVEN THE W. WL GO AN INCH OR TWO FROM IWD-CMX AND AT                    
ERY...WITH UP TO AN INCH OVR INLAND AREAS. SINCE TEMPS SO MILD                  
ATTM...WL GO A COUPLE DEGREES HIER THAN MOS FOR MAX TEMPS.                      
AVN SHOWS H85 THERMAL TROF NR -18C PASSING ACRS SRN LK SUP BY 06Z AS            
SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV/H7 UVV DROPS S INTO WI. LES CHART SHOWS 1 TO 3              
INCHES/6 HRS FOR DELTA T 17-20C WITH INVRN HGT ARND 5K FT PER CRUDE             
AVN FCST SDNG. WL FCST ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES IN FVRD ERN MQT-WRN                
ALGER BEFORE H5 HGT RISES 80M BTWN 06Z AND 12Z AND DRIER AIR SURGES             
S UNDER NVA IN WAKE OF SHRTWV. HAVE OPTED FOR LES ADVY MQT/ALGER ZNS            
WITH UP TO 6 INCHES/12 HRS OVR HIER TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN ADVY                 
BOOSTED BECAUSE 00Z YPL SDNG RELATIVELY MOIST THRU A RATHER DEEP LYR            
OF THE TROP. LESSER AMTS IN SURROUNDING LK SUP ZNS AND FARTHER                  
S...NO NEED FOR OTHR ADVYS. AS UPR HGTS RISE AND CYC FLOW WEAKENS               
LATE...AVN SHOWS RDG AXIS SETTING UP ACRS WRN ZNS...BUT LINGERING               
TROF ACRS THE E AND CNTRL. WL MAINTAIN MENTION OF CLRG IN THE                   
INTERIOR WRN ZNS AND S CNTRL...WHERE TEMPS SHUD FALL BLO MOS FCST               
MINS. AOA MOS NR LK SUP FM THE KEWEENAW TO ISQ WHERE LK MODERATION              
SHUD PREVAIL ALL NGT DESPITE THE DRYING.                                        
AS UPR HGTS CONT TO RISE WITH STRG H5 NVA ON SUN...AVN/ETA INDICATE             
SFC RDG AXIS WL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL LKS BY 00Z MON. AS SFC FLOW                 
SHIFTS BCMS MORE SSW DURG THE DAY...ANY LINGERING LK CLD WL DSPT.               
DESPITE VERY DRY AIRMASS (FCST PW < 0.25 INCH)...BOTH AVN/ETA BRUSH             
NRN TIER ZNS WITH PTCHY WAD CLDS. BUT SINCE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT/               
HIEST MSTR ON 290K SFC STAYS TO THE N...XPCT CLD COVG TO BE NO MORE             
THAN SCT. SO WL CALL THE DAY MOSUNNY AFTR MRNG LK CLDS DSPT. DESPITE            
DVLPMNT OF SLY FLOW DURG AFTN...FWC/MAV FCST MAX A GOOD CATEGORY                
UNDER GOING FCST MAX. FCST H85 TEMPS BY 00Z MON ARND -1C OVR THE W              
TO -8C OVR THE E. IF INCRSG FEB SUN ALLOWS MIXING TO H925...ETA FCST            
SDNGS SUG MAX TEMPS WL RISE TO 26 AT ERY TO 35 AT IWD (WHERE STRGR              
GRADIENT WND WL ENHANCE MIXING). SLY FLOW OFF LK MI WL ALSO RETARD              
WRMG IN THE E.                                                                  
CWA DOMINATED BY INCRSG SWLY FLOW ON SUN NGT INTO MON AS SFC HI PRES            
RDG PRESSES TO THE E...PRES FALLS ACRS CAN...AND A SHRTWV FM THE PAC            
PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. AVN AND UKMET MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PAC             
SHRTWV...AND AVN BRKS OUT PCPN OVR THE WRN HALF OF CWA LATE ON MON.             
ETAX AND CAN ARE SLOWER AND DRIER. WITH THE AMPLIFYING TROF OVR THE             
E AND DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...PREFER THE SLOWER DRIER ETAX/CAN.                
HOWEVER...GOING FCST HAS MENTION OF PCPN ALL ZNS LATE ON MON...SO WL            
CUT BACK TO KEEP ERN HALF DRY. INCRSG SW WND ON SUN NGT WL LIMIT                
DIURNAL TEMP FALL ESPECIALLY OVR THE W DESPITE MCLR SKIES...SO AOA              
MOS FOR MINS HERE. BUT ENUF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR THE E BEFORE THE            
SHARPER GRADIENT SNEAKS IN TO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL CLOSER TO MOS                 
FCST. DRY AIR AND AVN FCST H100-85 THKNS NO HIER THAN ABOUT 1300M               
SUG ANY PCPN ON MON WL BE SN DESPITE MAX TEMPS AOA FRZG.                        
COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB.                                                       
.MQT...LES ADVY THIS AFTN/TNGT MIZ005-006.                                      
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
325 EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                         
...SNOW INTO MIDDAY THEN SCT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...                 
THE MAIN QUESTION EARLY THIS MORNING IS JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL            
TODAY AND WERE WILL THE HEAVIEST SNOW BE?  THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW             
MUCH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL THERE BE OVERNIGHT?                          
THE 00Z ETA WAS TO SLOW IN BRINGING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE              
IN WHILE THE RUC AND AVN DID A BETTER JOB SINCE THE RADAR MOSAIC                
SHOWS A LARGE AND GROWING AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM WI INTO                    
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AT 07Z.  THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY SNOW              
EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AT 07Z.  THE ETA HAS MOST OF THE            
PRECIPITATION ON THE SHORTWAVE WHICH AT 06Z WAS JUST COMING INTO NW             
MN.  ALL OF THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON THE TRACK OF THE                     
SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPMENT THE SFC LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS NRN LK                  
HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE NYC/BOS COASTAL AREA BY SUNDAY                  
MORNING.  THE BEST WAA EARLY THIS MORNING IS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3              
OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE                     
SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO OVER THE SRN 1/2 OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING              
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC               
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS                
AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT ALL OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE DEEP COLD AIR AS THE            
POLAR JET IS WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY THEN.  THERE              
WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FROM ALL OF THIS DYNAMICS TO CHANGE THE RAIN             
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TO SNOW BY SUNRISE.  THE 1000/850 THICKNESS FALL            
FROM 1305 NEAR THE MKG/BIV AREA AT 06Z TO NEAR 1300 BY 1200Z. GIVEN             
THE LOW PRECIPITATION WATER (BETWEEN .3 AND .4 INCHES) AND THE 700              
MB MIXING RATIO NOT MORE THAN 2 K/KG... SO SINCE THAT MOISTURE DOES             
NOT LAST 12 HOURS... REALLY ONLY 8 HOURS... WILL GO WITH 1 TO 3                 
INCHES OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CWA WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH SINCE              
MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH.                                             
ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OUT THE INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASHES TO 5000                
FT. WITH 850 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE -12 TO -14C RANGE TONIGHT... IT             
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND THE -15C WILL              
BE IN THE CLOUD LAYERS.  ALSO... THERE IS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON               
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP COLD AIR THAT CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN                  
AROUND 06Z.  THUS WITH THE MEAN WIND BELOW THE INVERSION FROM AROUND            
330 AT AROUND 30 KNOTS OVERNIGHT... THE BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW                   
SHOWERS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORE.  I WILL GO WITH SNOW                   
SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE TONIGHT AND SCATTERED SNOW                   
SHOWERS INLAND DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE.  THE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND WILL              
QUIET AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA.  COULD EVEN              
BE PARTIAL CLEARING INLAND AS IS TYPICAL WITH NORTH WINDS AND DEEP              
COLD AIR OVER LOWER MICHIGAN.                                                   
ON SUNDAY... THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS LOWER                     
MICHIGAN. THE GOOD WARM ADVECTION DOES NOT START UNTIL SUNDAY                   
EVENING.  FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE LAKE                
SHORE AS THE NORTH WINDS DO NOT TURN WEST UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON.                
SO I WILL FCST PARTLY CLOUDY INLAND AND FLURRIES ENDING... BECOMING             
PARTLY CLOUDY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.                                              
SUNDAY NIGHT... THE GOOD WARM ADVECTION MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD              
BE WELL NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN... NEAR THAT SYSTEM IN CENTRAL                  
CANADA. ALSO WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. SO I WILL GO               
MOSTLY CLEAR.  TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME FALLING AFTER                 
MIDNIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 30 KNOTS DEVELOPS AND THAT SHOULD             
RESULT IN ENOUGH MECHANICAL MIXING TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURE FROM                 
FALLING TO FAR.                                                                 
ZONES BY 430 AM.                                                                
WDM                                                                             
EXTENDED FORECAST                                                               
THE SFC WEATHER MAP BY MONDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN             
THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS               
PUTS OUR REGION IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO               
MODERATE INTO THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL                 
REALLY                                                                          
OPEN UP AND GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTH... SO WE WILL HAVE                  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL RAIN                   
SHOWERS                                                                         
WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS              
THAT PLAINS SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. ON WEDNESDAY COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN             
TO FILTER IN AS THAT SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF               
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER... MODEL TRENDS             
ARE BRINGING COLDER AIR IN A BIT SOONER... IMPLYING ANY LIGHT                   
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MAY FALL PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.             
BY THURSDAY THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL DIG INTO OUR REGION. IT CERTAINLY            
DOESN/T LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF COLD AIR BUT IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH            
FOR SNOW. IMPULSES OF H5 ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL                
CAUSE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE H5                
TROUGH WILL ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW                 
TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. MEDIUM              
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND NO CHANGES WERE            
REQUIRED TO OUR GOING EXTENDED FORECAST.                                        
LAURENS                                                                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
206 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
...UPDATED ZONES TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION IN FASTER...                        
LATEST RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY STARTED             
AT MKG...BIV AND GRR.  THIS CONFIRMS THE AVN AND RUC HAVE A BETTER              
HANDLE ON THE INCREASE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RH IN RESPONSE TO               
THE LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THE ETA PUTS             
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ON THE SHORTWAVE DEFORMATION ZONE (PASSING            
OVER SW LWR BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z).  THE RUC AND AVN PUT IT MOSTLY                
WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR 700 MB (285K)... WHICH PUTS IT MOSTLY             
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z.  I BELIEVE IT WILL BE BOTH. SINCE SFC TEMPS ARE            
NEAR 39F ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AND THE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN THERE...            
THE ETA HAS THE 1000/850 1305M LINE AT 06Z FROM LDM TO 10 EAST OF               
BIV TO NIL.  CURIOUSLY THAT IS WERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS. THICKNESS            
COOLING FROM DYNAMICS WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE            
CWA BY 12Z.  THE ETA HAS THE 1305 LINE NEAR I-94 AT 12Z.  SO THE                
UPDATE HAS RAIN TO SNOW NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND MOSTLY SNOW                     
INLAND... AND MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN                  
BEFORE SUNRISE.  EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TODAY WILL BE FROM GRR AND             
SOUTH. MORE ON THAT IN THE AFD FOR THE MORNING ZONE PACKAGE COMING              
OUT BY 330 AM.                                                                  
WDM                                                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
325 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY EARLY CLOUD TRENDS AND                       
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES THROUGH PERIOD. PREFER              
AVN THERMAL AND DRIER ETA/RUC MOISTURE FIELDS IN EARLY GOING SO WILL            
LIKELY USE MIX.                                                                 
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA AT THIS                
TIME. THIS FEATURE...UPPER JET CORE AND SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE             
RESPONSIBLE FOR BAND OF CIGS OF VARYING HEIGHT FROM RRV EAST. KMVX              
88D INDICATING ANY RETURNS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF FA AND                
WITH METARS -SN FREE WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY AM FLURRY. FOR REMAINDER              
OF DAY UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST HOWEVER REGION WILL REMAIN            
IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH SHIFTING OVER FORECAST AREA. UPPER               
JET CORE ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS WITH IT. FROM                  
SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL MAINTAIN CLOUD MENTION THIS AM WITH MOST                 
AREAS SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SOLAR BRUNT OF DAY AS DRIER AIR SHIFTS              
EAST. FAR NORTHEAST TO BE IN CLOUDS LONGEST. IN SPITE OF WEAK COLD              
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TREND OF TEMPS ABOVE GUIDANCE                       
CONSIDERING SOLAR AND LACK OF ANY SNOW COVER WITH COOLEST READINGS              
OVER NE COUNTIES WHICH MAY FEEL AFFECTS OF COLD FRONT CLIPPING                  
AREA.                                                                           
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO                
SUNDAY. 850MB TEMPS RECOVER NICELY AND CONSIDERING GRADIENT SHOULD              
BE SUFFICIENT MIXING. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY AIRMASS FOR GOOD SOLAR             
AND WITH LACK OF SNOW TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD TOP GUIDANCE PUTTING                   
READINGS CLOSE OR ABOVE RECORD READINGS.                                        
NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT REGION OR PARTS OF ON MONDAY. AVN PRETTY BULLISH            
ON QPF HOWEVER CONSIDERING PAST EVENTS WILL NOT BITE AT THIS TIME               
HOWEVER BEARS WATCHING AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND PCPN CHANCES FARTHER              
ACROSS REGION. WILL LEAVE CURRENT WORDING AS IS FOR NOW AND GIVE DAY            
CREW HEADS UP.                                                                  
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED WITH SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS TO                   
CONTINUE WITH NEXT WARM-UP TOWARDS WEEKS END.                                   
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
330 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON EXTENT AND DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY.                      
IN THE SHORT TERM...COMBO OF IR SATELLITE AND RUC 500 MILLIBAR PROG             
SHOWS CENTER OF 26 UNIT VORTICITY CENTER APPROACHING CENTRAL                    
MINNESOTA. ETA/AVN/RUC/NGM PROGS ALL CAPTURE THIS VORTICITY CENTER              
AND PLACE IT OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY 18Z. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHUT            
OFF ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM BY 18Z. THEN             
DOWNWARD MOTION AND DECENT NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD BREAK            
UP CLOUDS DURING AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH MINOR SECONDARY TRAILING                 
VORTICITY IN UPPER FLOW. TIME CROSS SECTIONS DO TRY TO HOLD ONTO LOW            
LEVEL MOISTURE PAST 00Z SO WILL ONLY MENTION PARTLY SUNNY FOR                   
AFTERNOON AND THEN GO WITH CLERING SKIES OVERNIGHT. FEEL PATH OF                
VORTICITY CENTER AND MEAGER MOISTURE OF AIRMASS FAVORS ONLY NORTHEAST           
PORTION OF CWA TO HAVE ANY POSSIBILITY OF PICKING UP AROUND AN INCH             
OF SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS.                                                         
IN THE FAR TERM...ALL PROGS BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO REGION TONIGHT             
AND IT DOMINATES WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC               
SKY COVER FOR SUNDAY AND LEAN TOWARD WARMER FWC GUIDANCE NUMBERS                
FOR FORECAST HIGHS.                                                             
.MKX...NONE.                                                                    
0...0...0.../...0...0                                                           
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                     
MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PACKAGE IS THE AMNT OF SHSN THIS AFTN AND                
TNGT.                                                                           
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A SHRTWV MOV OVR CWA THIS AM. KMQT-88D SHOWING               
THIS SHRTWV DEPOSITING -SHSN ACRS THE CWA. A LTL STRONGER ACTIVITY              
IS OVR WI. KINL AM RAOBS SHOWING A DRY LYR NR SFC...AND MOIST ARND              
775MB. SFC ANLYS DEPICTING A LOW CENTER OVR CNTRL LWR MI AND A LARGE            
RDG STRETCHING ACRS N PLAINS...MAN...INTO HUDSON BAY. A CDFNT                   
REMAINS N OF LK SUPERIOR OVR ONT.                                               
RUC/MESOETA ANLYS SHOWING THE WEAK SHRTWV PASSING OVR THE CWA THIS              
MRNG WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER THIS EVE. RUC/MESO-ETA/AVN             
ALL POINT TO KEEPING THE CDFNT OVR LK SUPERIOR THIS AFTN BEFORE                 
SLIDING IT OFF TO THE E WITH THE APPROACH OF THE RDG. LAKE-850MB                
DELTA-T'S WILL INCR TO 16C ACRS N LK SUPERIOR. LOW LVL WNDS CONVRGNC            
WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH TO CONT LES ACRS CWA. ETA FCST                    
SOUNDING DATA INDC BASE OF INVRSN ARND 900MB (2K FT). CAA WILL BRING            
THE INVRSN UP TO 500MB (3.1K FT). CYC FLOW AHEAD OF N PLAINS RDG                
WILL KEEP WNDS OUT OF THE N THIS AFTN. 850-700MB Q-VEC SHOWING                  
MAINLY DVRGNC ACRS CWA THIS AFTN AND 280K ISENTROPIC ANLYS DEPICT               
SUBSIDENCE. ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT COMES FM LOW LVL (925MB) WND                    
CNVRGENCE. HOWEVER...IT IS WEAK. AVN A LTL STRONGER WITH THIS LES               
EVENT...DEPICTING DELTA-T'S ARND 17C AND SOME BLYR WND DIVERGENCE BY            
00Z SUN. MESO-ETA/RUC SUPPORTS ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES THIS                          
AFTN...WHEREAS...AVN SUG 2 TO 4 INCHES. A COMPROMISE OF 1 TO 3                  
INCHES STILL LOOK REASON FOR LES PRONE AREAS OF E U.P. THUS WILL                
KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING.                                                        
AVN INCR DELTA-T'S BY MIDNGT TO AROUND 19C ...HOWEVER...SHOW A LOSS             
OF LOW LVL CONVRNGNC. AVN SOUNDING FCST SHOWING NR SATURATION BLO               
850MB THU 06Z. SFC RDG WILL MOV INTO W LK SUPERIOR BY SR...DRYING               
OUT THE LOW LVLS. MESO-ETA DEPICTING A LTL WRMR AT 850MB. WEAK 925MB            
WND CNVRGNC CONT OVR E LK SUPERIOR TIL 06Z. LTL STRONG SHRTWV ENERGY            
WILL MOV ACRS CWA OVRNGT. ISENTROPIC ANLYS SHOWING MAINLY                       
SUBSIDENCE. Q-VEC HAS ONLY WEAK CONVGNC BY 12Z. ALL IN ALL IT                   
APPEARS THAT LES WILL CONT TIL MIDNGT...BUT TAPER OFF CONSIDERABLY              
BY SR. 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THIS EVE OVR E CWA. LES WILL TAPER TO             
FLURIES WHEN THE SFC RDG MOV ACRS CWA SUN MRNG AS WNDS WILL BCM LGT             
AND VARIABLE. WILL KEEP LES GOING FOR THIS EVE.                                 
LES WILL END AS WNDS VEERING S. AVN/ETA SHOWING WAA ABV 850MB...WILL            
ALSO BRING SOME SUNSHINE TO THE U.P. ON SUN. TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND               
NICELY TO ARND 30 ON SUN.                                                       
.MQT...LES ADVY THIS AFTN/TNGT MIZ005-006.                                      
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1104 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                     
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL LAKE HURON TO             
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...CROSSING CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WATER             
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE                            
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND                    
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS LED TO AREAS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN              
LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL                 
DEFORMATION HAS ALLOWED THE SNOWFALL TO BE ORIENTED IN A BANDED                 
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST             
SNOWFALL BETWEEN FLINT AND THE TRI CITIES...WITH MOST OF METRO                  
DETROIT SEEING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE MORNING             
HOURS. PRECIP COVERAGE ON KGRR RADAR HOWEVER HAS ALREADY INCREASED              
AS THE SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST HEADS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING                  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                 
THE 12Z MESO ETA AND LATEST RUC HAVE PICKED UP ON THE FASTER                    
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. COLD FRONT IS              
PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA THE AFTERNOON...REACHING DETROIT              
BY 21Z...WITH THE SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO SWING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA              
BY THIS TIME. FORCING SHOULD THUS DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MESO ETA IS PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP              
IN SW LOWER...AND BRINGS IT ACROSS THE 1-96 AND 1-69 CORRIDORS EARLY            
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCH IN THESE AREAS BEFORE              
SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF MID AFTERNOON.                                              
WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH...TEMPS SHOULD NOT STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT             
READINGS.                                                                       
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA                                       
900 AM PST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
CLOSED UPPER LOW OUT NEAR 38N/130W IS MOVING DUE EAST.                          
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND IS                       
CURRENTLY CROSSING 125W HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE              
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS A JET MAX SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW             
AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASES. TIMING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS            
THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN. THIS SYSTEM IS DEFINITELY              
MOVING FASTER THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED 24 HOURS AGO. RADAR IS                  
DETECTING RAINFALL ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF POINT ARENA. THE RAIN BAND           
IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO THE SONOMA             
COUNTY COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z              
RUN OF THE ETA AND 06Z RUN OF THE PACRUC MODEL WHICH BOTH SHOW                  
RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN SONOMA COUNTY BY 21Z AND THEN EAST TO THE                
DELTA AND SOUTH TO MONTEREY BAY BY 00Z. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE           
POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN NORTH AND WEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL           
SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED                     
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INLAND AND           
THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A             
GOOD SHEAR PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET. THERE SHOULD BE                
ENOUGH COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 3500-             
4000 FEET...LOW ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.              
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON SATELLITE NEAR 50N/150W WILL BE            
WHAT KEEPS OUR CLOSED LOW MOVING EAST. IT WILL DROP INTO THE                    
PACIFIC NW AND FAR NRN CA ON SUNDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD                
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY               
WEATHER BACK TO OUR REGION BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY.             
RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES           
AIM AT THE PAC NW AND NORTHERN CA.                                              
STS/SFO 896  LVK/SJC 796  MRY 686.                            DYKEMA            
.SFO...TDA...SCA...POINT ARENA TO POINT SUR.                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

SOUTHWEST IDAHO/SOUTHEAST OREGON AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO                                            
145 PM MST SAT FEB 16 2002                                                      
TRACE OF SNOW LAST NIGHT AT BURNS AS UPPER LOW OPENED UP AND MOVED              
MAINLY SOUTH TO N AND FASTER THAN 12Z RUNS - WAS OVER MOUTH OF                  
COLUMBIA AT 12Z INSTEAD OF CLOSER TO 18Z - NOW WELL NW OF BOISE                 
CWFA.  LATEST RUC IS EVEN FASTER THAN AVN AND BRINGS IN H5 LOW TO               
NEAR SFO AT 6Z WITH AVN STILL A BIT OFFSHORE.  SO WILL GO WITH AVN'S            
FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.                                                 
THAT UPPER LOW OFF SFO THIS AFTERNOON HAS STRONGER WESTERLY KICKER              
WITH SPEED MAX AROUND 38N FROM 165W TOWARD 145W, FAVORING FASTER AVN            
SOLUTION (LOW NEAR ELKO MIDDAY SUNDAY) OVER SLOWER ETA FOR SYSTEM               
(LOW CLOSER TO SHASTA MIDDAY SUNDAY).  WE HAVE A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE              
OVER ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW UPPER LOW TO MOVE IN (BUT STILL                 
WEAKEN) AND THE STRONGER KICKER SHOULDN'T BE DISCOUNTED EVEN THOUGH             
IT TURNS FROM A WRLY SPEED MAX INTO A NWRLY MAX DIVING DOWN THE BACK            
SIDE OF THIS NEXT UPPER LOW.  SO WILL GO WITH AVN WHICH MEANS                   
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT.                                                      
ON SUNDAY HARNEY/MALHEUR AND SW IDAHO MOUNTAINS-HIGHLANDS WILL GO               
LIKELY RAIN WITH 1-3" SNOW ABOVE 5K'...HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM ONO-BOI            
AND MID CHC POPS BKE TOWARDS TWF. PLAN A 20 POP FOR MYL SUNDAY WITH             
SRN TRACK OF NEXT UPPER LOW...BUT WITH RIDGE OVER ROCKIES MAY SEE               
MORE ENERGY OVER SW IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.                                     
UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVER SE IDAHO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FOR SUNDAY EVENING            
PLAN TO GO  LIKELY FOR SRN ID MTNS AND CAMAS PRAIRE AS WELL AS EAST             
OF BOISE IN UPR T.V.  PLAN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE NW                
PART OF THE CWA.  THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MORE IN THE NRN BRANCH             
CROSSING INTO EASTER OREGON TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY THEN ACROSS MYL-BOI            
AROUND NOONTIME...WITH SCT VALLEY RAIN AND MTN SNOW SHOWERS.  AVN IS            
A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER BOTH THE 00Z MRF AND 12Z ETA AS             
THE AVN IS CARRYING (AT 18Z MONDAY) THE H5 546DM COUNTOUR S OF BOISE            
WHILE THE ETA HAS IT WAY UP IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE.  CHANCE POPS                
EVERYWHERE EAST OF BNO (20 POP) MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.                       
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT BUT MOIST WARM ADVECTION              
WITH THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE CASCADES BY TUESDAY MORNING                  
PROBABLY WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES-FLURRIES INTO SE OREGON BY MORNING.               
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A "GOOD" PRECIP MAKER WITH LIKELY                
POPS AND RISING SNOW LEVELS BUT STILL SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION                    
EXPECTED TUESDAY.  HIGHEST POPS NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH THIS FEATURE.              
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER SE OREGON ALL TUESDAY AND OVER SW                 
IDAHO FOR 'AFTERNOON' PER AVN/MRF MODEL SOLUTIONS, QPF, AND MEXMOS              
EVEN THO IT'S DAY 3.  ASSOCIATED CD FNT COMES NOW RIGHT ON THE HEELS            
OF THE WARMFRONT CROSSING SE OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MAGIC             
VALLEY PROBABLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                                        
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEHIND                 
CDFNT.  RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY BUT MOIST WAA IS ADVERTISED IN 12Z             
AVN MAINLY TOWARDS CASCADES SO WILL LEAVE POPS OUT STILL FOR                    
THURSDAY AND TREND TOWARDS LESS CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY SW IDAHO                 
VALLEYS AND OWYHEES-HIGHLANDS.  WILL STICK WITH CURRENT EXTENDED A              
BIT COOLER WITH CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER JET                
AXIS AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCUR SOME TIME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT            
AND FRIDAY AND COLD TROFFINESS LINGERS OVER THE CWFA SATURDAY THOUGH            
SOME DRY RIDGING WORKS INTO HARNEY CO TOWARDS NEXT SATURDAY.                    
.BOI...NONE.                                                                    
MILLS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   id