AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
253 AM MST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE POSSIBILITY OF                   
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND              
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY.                                                
THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS            
TODAY/TONIGHT.  FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH A TROUGH             
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND            
PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE IS LACKING               
EVEN OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF                      
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY FROM 18Z-24Z AS THE UPPER                 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND MOISTURE IMPROVES. THE TROUGH THEN            
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO THE                    
FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE                   
PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT              
SNOW SO WILL KEEP BOTH IN THE FORECAST. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS               
STILL LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS EVENT.                                           
AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN COLORADO               
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN                   
SURFACE MOISTURE TONIGHT.  BOTH GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE             
A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY               
MORNING IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE STRATUS SHOULD BE ONLY                
LAST A FEW HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE                   
NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY EVENING WITH AT LEAST BREEZY NORTH WIND ON               
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE            
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                  
FOR TEMPERATURES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE HIGH                
CLOUDS TODAY WHICH COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPERATURES SOME. CURRENT                   
GUIDANCE IS CLOSE AND LOWERS MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SO WILL             
GO WITH MET GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD UP BY CLOUDS                
TONIGHT. CURRENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS AGREE WITH WARMER MET                    
MOS SO SO WILL LEAVE AS IS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 17 TUESDAY            
BUT AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH APPROACHING FRONT MAY LIMIT HEATING SO                
WILL GO WITH A BLEND. CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES UP SOME TUESDAY             
NIGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT DEPENDING ON             
IF THERE IS ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW.                                              
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HINGE UPON WIND SPEEDS AND RH TUESDAY                     
AFTERNOON SINCE FUELS ARE CRITICAL WITH NO GREENUP YET. THE NAM                 
MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ANY CONCERN. BOTH THE               
RUC AND THE NAM INDICATE A DECREASING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON OVER               
EASTERN COLORADO. RH VALUES SHOULD MEET CRITERIA. PLAN TO HOLD OFF              
ON WATCH TO ALLOW FOR BETTER COORDINATION WITH AGENCIES.                        
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
256 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.  EASTERN CWA               
MAY SEE A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE TONIGHT...BUT THAT IS EVEN               
DOUBTFUL.                                                                       
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM 08Z SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR               
THE MOMENT.  A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM IN NORTHEASTERN                
COLORADO TOWARD 06/12Z THIS MORNING...BUT GET WASHED OUT DURING THE             
HEATING OF THE DAY.  A WARM FRONTAL AFFECT WILL FORM AS AFTERNOON               
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES NORTH-NORTHEAST                   
THROUGH DDC'S CWA.  THIS WILL MEAN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER MAY BE NICE             
AND MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 75 AT EHA...THEN EVEN WARMER TUESDAY             
WITH EHA/LBL HIGHS 76-78F.  NEITHER DAY'S FORECAST HIGHS WOULD BE               
RECORDS (CWA RECORDS CURRENTLY IN LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY AND                  
TOMORROW)...BUT QUITE UNSEASONABLE NONETHELESS.                                 
SINCE TODAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ILL DEFINED...IT MAY MEANDER              
BACK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THIS COULD              
SEE A LITTLE LOCALIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE NEAR HAYS OR              
LARNED.  NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT...SO STAYED WITH THE EXISTING LOW               
20 POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MY EASTERN ZONES.  A SECONDARY CONCERN               
FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER           
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND              
IN 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF              
CWA AND 5-15MPH IN NORTHWEST HALF.  TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE BREEZIER                
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-25KT GUSTING TO 35KT                    
RANGE.  HWO WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS ELEVATED DANGER OF WILDFIRES.                   
MODEL COMPARISON FROM 06/00Z SHOWED ETA80 AND GFS ARE IN GOOD                   
AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEN GFS (AND NGM) BRING A SLIGHT                  
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN E/NE SECTIONS OF CWA...WHILE THE ETA IS             
DRY.  USED THE GFS FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS.  PREFER THE                
WARMER TEMPS OF THE NGM AND ETA...HOWEVER...OVER THE GFS.  GFS SEEMS            
TO BRING IN OPAQUE CLOUD COVER TOO FAST AND THUS DOES NOT HAVE AS               
WARM OF MAX TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS DOES THE ETA...NGM AND RUC.             
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY SYSTEM IS THE REAL QUESTION THIS               
FORECAST.  THE NEW 00Z GFS RUN IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM IN               
QUESTION...AND EVEN THE ECMWF APPEARS JUST A TAD FASTER AS WELL WITH            
A VORT MAX OVER NEW MEXICO 00Z THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE            
FROM EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  COLD FRONT IS                
SHOWN TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH COLD SECTOR PCPN            
DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DDC CWA FOR MUCH OF THE                
DAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE             
IN THE DAY WITH 30S IN THE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.  GIVEN             
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WILL HOLD ON             
TO 20 POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF CWA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  IF                
THIS SYSTEM WRAPS UP MORE THAN SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...IT IS NOT              
INCONCEIVABLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD EXIST IN THE COLD SECTOR               
FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES IN WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS (MY NORTHWEST                    
ZONES).  TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING IN THE NORTHWEST HALF DURING THE               
DAY WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
BEYOND THURSDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...MADE ESSENTIALLY NO                    
CHANGES.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT JET/STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE                    
SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH A PRE-EXISTING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT              
MORE THAN LIKELY...AND WITH A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS            
SOMEWHERE...ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST NOW WILL LIKELY BE CHANGED               
AGAIN FIVE OR SIX MORE TIMES...SO IN THE INTEREST OF LIMITING                   
FLIP-FLOPPING TEMPS...WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  73  44  74  39 /   0   0   0   0                                           
GCK  74  43  74  37 /   0   0   0   0                                           
EHA  75  40  76  38 /   0   0   0   0                                           
LBL  74  44  77  38 /   0   0   0   0                                           
HYS  69  44  73  40 /   0  20   0   0                                           
P28  71  47  74  46 /   0  20   0   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN12/25                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
305 PM EDT MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY AFTERNOON)...                                 
AFTER LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR...AND SAT TRENDS SHOWING CLOSED H500             
LOW DROPPING SE THRU NW INDIANA...AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX JUST TO               
THE SW OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. RADAR SHOWS SOLID AREA OF LIGHT                 
PRECIP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO INDIANA             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...STRONG JET MAX OF 120KT MOVING ACROSS S             
IL AND S IN INTO KY HELPING WITH THE PRODUCTION OF THE PRECIP. VIS              
SAT SHOWS SOME EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND                
SOUTHWEST FROM THE BWG AREA NORTH TO HNB...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME PEAKS            
OF SUN BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY             
EVENING WITH FAST MOVING VORT/PRECIP DROPPING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.                
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE 09Z SREF AND RUC FOR THE NEXT 24HRS...THEY                
SEEM TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE H500 LOW AND THE               
ASSOCIATED VORTMAX DROPPING SE OUT OF NW INDIANA AND THEN ACROSS                
EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...EXITING THE REGION BY                      
MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE THIS EVENING FILLING             
IN THE THE ERODED AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT PRECIP LIKELY                 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE                 
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOK AS IF EVERYTHING              
WOULD BE ALL RAIN...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXED IN LATER              
IN THE NIGHT. WITH BL TEMPS JUST TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACCUMS AS TEMPS              
WILL NOT BE NEAR FREEZING AS THE PRECIP FALLS...SEE LITTLE IMPACT               
FROM THIS POSSIBILITY. PRECIP LOOKS TO EXIT THE AREA FROM THE SE                
SOMETIME AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME SERIES OF RH ACROSS             
THE REGION SHOWS THE CLOUDS EXITING AS WELL FROM MAINLY THE NORTH               
TO THE SOUTH STARTING AROUND 06Z NORTH TO NEAR DAYBREAK(12Z) ACROSS             
THE SOUTH AS SFC RIDGING DROPS INTO THE REGION AS A LARGE ELONGATED             
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MS              
AND OH VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL FALL MORE RAPIDLY AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT             
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE                  
BLUEGRASS REGION...TO AROUND 30 ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA.             
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION AS THE MAIN              
AXIS OF SFC RIDGING DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY            
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY...AS H850 TEMPS RISE DURING THE EARLY             
MORN HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR -5C TO NEAR 0 TO +2 C BY                
LATE AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.                
--SCHOTT                                                                        
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                             
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE                
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE               
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE              
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM AN AREA OF              
LOW PRESSURE OVER KANSAS TO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH THE                
FRONT IN THE REGION WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. THE WARM             
FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY.                                          
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST IN THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND                
CROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THURSDAY. A 60-70KT 8H JET WILL DEVELOP AHEAD            
OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DYNAMICS WILL BECOME FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AS THE             
5H NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSES THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS IS THE            
CASE WITH MANY EARLY MARCH SYSTEMS STABILITY WITH BE MARGINAL                   
HOWEVER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR                  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.                                                       
POST FRONTAL FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST SO COLD AIR ADVECTION IS            
NOT EXPECTED, IN FACT HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE              
NORMAL.                                                                         
HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS.                      
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...                                                      
MID RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPPER               
LEVEL AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH                 
OVER THE WEST AND RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST WILL PRODUCE A BROAD                
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A                   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE             
LOCATION AND OF THIS BOUNDARY. CERTAINLY THE CLOSER IT IS TO OUR                
CWFA WITH BETTER THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. GFS ENSEMBLES KEEPS POPS IN               
THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND WE WILL FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES              
WILL WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL FOLLOW A               
BLEND OF THE GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE HIGHS.                                
--JA                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
949 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REMOVE TEMPORAL WORDING CONCERNING SKY CONDITION.   
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF   
THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH MIXING. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDETECTABLE IN THE        
BAROCLINIC ANALYSIS BUT WAS HIDING SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN        
CWA AS OF 15Z. RUC80 SUGGESTS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL          
BE VIRTUALLY NONEXISTANT AND WITH ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE PER SHV 12Z RAOB...     
DECIDED TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DOWN SOUTH TODAY. TEMPS IN PRETTY          
GOOD SHAPE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD RISE AREAWIDE AS CAA IN THE WAKE        
OF THE FRONT IS WEAK AT BEST. BUMPED MLU UP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER MATCH            
FCST HIGHS FURTHER NORTH BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ONGOING FCST LOOKS GOOD.         
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
13                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
430 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.                 
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPR LVL TROF            
INTO THE WEST COAST...A RDG OVER THE PLAINS...AND A TROF OVER THE               
ERN CONUS. OVER THE WEST...A WELL-DEFINED LEAD SHRTWV WAS MOVING                
THROUGH NRN CA. A MID LVL LOW/VORT OVER CONTINUED SO MOVE SE LEAVING            
A SHRTWV RDG IN ITS WAKE OVER THE WRN LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RDG                 
EXTENDED FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY WHILE A WEAK TROF              
WAS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY               
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE EAST HLF OR UPR MI WHILE MVFR CLOUDS PERSISTED             
W OF KIMT-KCMX BENEATH 875 MB INVERSION...PER 19Z TAMDAR SNDGS. DRY             
AIR WAS ENTRENCHED UPSTREAM WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS               
OVER ERN UPR MI AND ONTARIO.                                                    
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO SLOWLY ERODE AS WEAK DRY ERLY                
FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...NAM/RUC 925-900 MB RH AND SATELLITE TRENDS            
SUGGEST THAT CLOUDS OVER THE FAR WEST MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS                   
EVENING. THE SFC RDG AXIS MOVES TO JUST E OF UPR MI BY 12Z WITH ONLY            
WEAK RETURN FLOW OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. SO...GOOD RADIATIONAL              
COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP AOB GUIDANCE VALUES               
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO FAVOR FOG                             
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY CNTRL WHERE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN            
THE LOWER 20S.                                                                  
TUE...SRLY FLOW AN WAA INCREASE AS THE RDG DEPARTS TO THE ERN LAKES             
AND A TROF MOVE E FROM THE NRN PLAINS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD              
ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                 
TUE NIGHT INTO WED...AS THE LEAD SHRTWV APPROACHES THE WRN LAKES...A            
BAND OF STRONG 285K-295K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE FROM THE UPR MS              
VALLEY INTO UPR MI...FUELED BY 50 KT SSW 850 MB LLJ. SNOW CHANCES               
WERE BOOSTED TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST HALF WITH THIS FEATURE. EVEN               
THOUGH 3-4 G/KG WOULD BE AVBL...WITH RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF                 
STRONGER UPWARD MOTION AND UNFAVORABLE SNOWGROWTH(MOISTURE IN -12C              
TO -17C OUT OF PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM)...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS ONLY               
AROUND AN INCH(10/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO). FCST SNDGS HAVE BEEN                     
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY                  
BEHIND THE AREA OF BEST LIFT...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF             
-FZDZ BEHIND THE SNOW.                                                          
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT               
SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV EJECTS FROM THE SW CONUS TROF. THE UKMET/ECMWF               
LOW TRACK INTO WRN LWR MI(PER HPC) WAS PREFERRED OVER THE MORE WRLY             
GFS TRACK. THIS WOULD KEEP BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE             
SE 2/3 OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH THE SFC LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH...MDLS            
THERMAL FIELDS STILL SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER             
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SFC-700 PRFL WOULD BE MORE                    
FAVORABLE FOR SNOW OVER THE WEST HLF...BUT OFTEN HAS A COOL BIAS                
WITH SUCH SCENARIOS.                                                            
FRI-MON...THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THAT MID LVL AND SFC RDG SHOULD                 
REDUCE ANY PCPN CHANCES. HOWEVER...GIVEN MDLS VARIABILITY RECENTLY              
AND...A SLGT CHANCE WAS RETAINED. DURING THE                                    
WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MDLS BLEND WOULD BRING PCPN CHANCES WITH              
NEXT SHRTWV AND SFC LOW BY SAT FOLLOWED BY RIDGING AGAIN SUN.                   
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH DETAILS IS LOW GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR                 
TIMING CHANCES WITH FAIRLY FAST SW MID/UPR FLOW TOWARD THE AREA.                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1025 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX DROPPING SE OVER SW             
WI. THIS FEATURE IS NICELY RESOLVED AROUND THE H5 LEVEL BY THE BLRW3            
PROFILER. THE 12Z 291K ISENTROPIC RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STRONGEST            
UPGLIDE AND MOIST ADVECTION NOSING INTO NRN IL AHEAD OF THIS VORT. A            
GOOD COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS HAS BEEN NOTED ON THE GRR RADAR...               
RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE OVER THE              
SW CWFA (SEE PNSGRR). LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND METAR VSBY REPORTS                
INDICATE A DECREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY OVER THE LAST COUPLE                  
HOURS. THE AREA OF SNOW HAS CORRESPONDED WELL WITH H8-H7 LAYER DPVA             
IN THE RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A                
TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM A LOW IN THE CAROLINAS THROUGH KLOT...WHICH            
HAD ENHANCED LOCAL SNOWFALL. A COLD FRONT WAS POISED OVER UPPER MI.             
LATEST RUC PROGS AND CURRENT FORECAST SHOW THE SFC TROUGH PUSHING S             
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE MENTIONED UPPER VORT. RUC H8-H7               
DPVA AND 290K THETA SURFACE PROGS SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOWFALL COULD             
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CWFA WITH THE SWD PUSH OF            
COLDER AIR...BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS               
INSOLATION KICKS INTO GEAR. MADE VIRTUALLY NO CHANGES TO THE                    
NEARSHORE FORECASTS AS WINDS AND WAVES LOOK WELL ON TRACK.                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
216 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONCERNS INCLUDE LINGERING PCPN THIS MORNING AND THEN TIMING OF PCPN            
WITH NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED.                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 5H RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE                   
EXITING SE WI AND MOVING INTO SRN LWR MI WHILE AN UPR LOW FROM                  
CENTRAL MN CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD SRN WI. TO THE WEST...UPPER LEVEL            
RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGH IS NOTED OFF THE WEST COAST.                                             
TODAY...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT SNOW OVER WI BDR                 
GENERALLY FALLING APART AS 700-600 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND 850-500 MB              
Q-VECT CONV HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. MODELS               
INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING            
HOURS. THUS...HAVE KEPT IN A LOW CHC POP OVER THE WI BDR COUNTIES               
THIS MORNING FOR LINGERING SNOW AND ALSO POSSIBLE PATCHY FZDZ AS MID            
LVLS DRY OUT BY LATE MORNING PER MODEL SNDGS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE                 
AHEAD OF BLDG MID-LVL RDG SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GFS/NAM/UKMET SHOW THE NORTHERN PLAINS 5H                
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE HIGH              
PRES FROM NRN ONTARIO WILL DESCEND OVER UPPER MI TONIGHT. DRY AIR               
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA (UPSTREAM PRECIPITABLE WATER            
AT 00Z CWPL SNDG AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH) ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY                  
DROP...THIS EVENING. HAVE LOWERED MINS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE (ZERO OR             
A FEW DEGREES BLO ZERO) FOR FAVORED RADIATING COLD SPOTS OVER WRN               
INTERIOR. KEPT IN MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DUE TO RECENT DAYTIME                   
SNOWMELT AND PRIME RADITATIONAL COOLING. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGH                  
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN SSE RETURN FLOW             
AT THE SURFACE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS RISING TO -1 TO               
-4C BY LATE AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL                 
ALLOW READINGS TO RISE QUICKLY. KEPT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO              
UPPER 30S...WITH A FEW LOW 40S IN THE WESTERN U.P. DUE TO                       
DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW.                                                            
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...GLOBAL MODELS AND NAM FAIRLY SIMILAR              
WITH TIMING OF PAC SYSTEM FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. PREFER NAM ON            
SLOWER TIMING OF PCPN INTO AREA GIVEN DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE IN              
PLACE. GIVEN THAT PREVIOUS FCST WAS BASED ON NAM DID NOT CHANGE PCPN            
TIMING...SO BROUGHT A CHC OF -SN INTO SW COUNTIES BY AROUND 06Z WED             
AND SPREAD CHC INTO CENTRAL ZONES BTWN 09Z-11Z. FCST SNDGS SUPPORT              
SNOW AS PCPN TYPE TUE NIGHT. EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO ERN COUNTIES            
WED MORNING THEN MID-LVL DRYING FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BEHIND               
THE TROUGH COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FZDZ MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE             
MORNING WITH SOME DZ IN THE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY LYR WARMING.                
GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THU WITH TRACK OF SRN STREAM                        
SYSTEM...PCPN TYPE FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU MAY BE TRICKY.  FOR NOW               
WILL STICK WITH GOING FCST OF CHC OF RAIN ACROSS CWA AND LET DAY                
CREW TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT 00Z AND 12Z MODELS TO DETERMINE IF WRN               
COUNTIES MAY NEED A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW PUT IN FCST.                               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
206 AM CST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A SEDATIVE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE NATIONS MID             
SECTION...ANCHORED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE                
NORTHWEST.  MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO BUILDING IN FROM            
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS CALM                
THROUGH TODAY.  THE NEXT CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE               
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A               
LOW LEVEL JET MAY PROVIDE FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.             
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WAS THE                
INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE IN TODAYS PACKAGE.  THEN MORE STORM                  
CHANCES LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS SUGGEST AN OVERALL SYNOPTIC             
REGIME THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SPRINGLIKE SENSIBLE CONDITIONS.              
SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...                                                
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE               
THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORN BELT AND GREAT LAKES REGION.               
THIS WILL INDUCE A COOL NORTHEAST WIND INTO THE OZARKS AND OFFER                
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.  DESPITE THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...FULL SUNSHINE             
SHOULD WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER EXTREME              
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  MID 60S LOOK GOOD FOR THE             
SPRINGFIELD AREA...WHILE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE OBSERVED OVER                 
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WHERE MUCH COOLER 850MB TEMPS ADVECT IN.  THE                
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE OZARKS OVERNIGHT               
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS BACK AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND             
INITIATE A WARMING TREND.  NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY...SWIFT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN SURFACE            
TROUGH ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...ULTIMATELY PULLING                  
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ETA                
SUGGEST THAT THE MOISTURE TONGUE AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL                
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...WITH A DRYLINE PLACED ROUGHLY FROM PRATT                  
KANSAS TO ALTUS OKLAHOMA.  THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED                  
STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST...HOWEVER...A WEAKLY MIXED            
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE OZARKS WILL TRY TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION              
FROM OCCURRING.  BUT I CAN NOT IGNORE THE MOISTURE RETURN ALOFT                 
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...AS GFS40 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD               
SUGGEST AROUND 500J/KG OF AVAILABLE CAPE WHEN LIFTING A PARCEL FROM             
AROUND 825MB UPON MAXIMIZED MOISTURE TRANSPORT.  WILL CONTINUE                  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER TUESDAY.  CHANCES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER            
BASED CONVECTION IS ALMOST NIL.                                                 
A TUESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA             
AND EASTERN KANSAS.  MASS CONVERGENCE AND PRESSURE ADVECTIVE                    
PROCESSES WILL LIKELY BECOME FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO                   
CENTRAL MISSOURI.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SUGGEST A SLUG OF GULF            
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ADVANCING IN WITH THIS FEATURE...SO CLUSTERS OF            
CONVECTION FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO LAKE OF THE OZARKS IS CERTAINLY             
POSSIBLE.  CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH                   
TUESDAY NIGHTS PERIOD...WITH HIGHER POPS FOCUSED ACROSS MY NORTHERN             
COUNTIES.                                                                       
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL              
LIKELY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  IT APPEARS            
AS THOUGH THE MAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO                    
THURSDAY MORNING.  DECENT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE                     
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TO WORK WITH.  SINCE THE MAIN BELT OF LARGE            
SCALE ASCENT PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT                               
HOURS...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.                      
HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL PROCESSES MAY HELP PROMOTE TO STRONG TO SEVERE              
UPDRAFTS.                                                                       
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE REGION BY             
THURSDAYS DAY PERIOD.  EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS BACK            
INTO THE 50S AND MAINLY A DRY DAY.  I WILL CAUTION THE NEXT SHIFT               
THAT IF WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ANY AND PASSES THROUGH               
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THAN SEVERE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL                
NEED TO BE REASSESSED.                                                          
LONG TERM (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)...                                                  
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL READINGS               
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.  MODELS AGREE ON A LARGE SCALE                  
CANADIAN CYCLONE TO DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN U.S....WHICH POPS A BROAD            
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.  DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES                  
ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION...PROMOTING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND                  
MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE OZARKS.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY               
AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.  THE GFS DERIVES A SIGNAL WITHIN THE              
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING - SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME THAT STRONG MOISTURE             
RETURN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY YIELD SHOWERS AND THUNDER.                     
ULTIMATELY LOOK FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON              
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN.  EXPECT INCREASING            
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.                                        
CRAMER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 00Z SGF/JLN TAFS...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT               
BOTH TAF SITES WITH JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE REGION.             
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT CLOUD                 
COVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE              
MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM EARLIER               
RAINFALL...STEEP INVERSION AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING HYDROLAPSE ON NAM            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE NEED FOR FOG AFTER                
REVIEWING LATEST KSGF RAOB AND RUC FORECASTS.                                   
MMT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
117 AM EST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.AVIATION (6Z-6Z)...                                                            
INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LLVL              
MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. EXPECT THE             
BEST CONFLUENCE OF THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR TO BE FOUND SW OF KDAY             
NR A IND/CVG LINE EARLY TODAY. H8 TROF WILL WORK THROUGH FROM N-S               
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A H5 LOW AND MAY SPARK SOME SHOWER                
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF                          
SNOW...POSSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN DUE TO SFC TEMPS RISING TO THE MID             
AND UPPER 30S.                                                                  
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PASS TO THE EAST BUT STILL AFFECT                  
CMH/LCK TAFS FOR A GOOD BIT LONGER THAN OTHER SITES THIS MORNING.               
LOWEST CIGS WILL PASS FROM KDAY AND NORTHWEST TO THE CVG/LUK AREA BY            
DAYBREAK AND IS NOTED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING. AFTER THE              
TROF PASSES...DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION FROM THE                     
NORTHEAST AND CUT ANY LINGERING LLVL CLOUDS OR MIST.                            
AM NOT SO CONFIDENT IN THE H8 TROF ALONE SPARKING SHOWERS BUT THERE             
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING ABOVE THE MOISTURE FOR SCT ACTIVITY OVER               
THE COURSE OF THE DAY FOR THE CWA.                                              
LOW CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT FROM N TO S DURING THE LATE DAY.                        
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...                                                        
(ISSUED 833 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA               
WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO. KILN                 
RADAR SHOWS A LOT OF LIGHT RETURNS OVER FORECAST AREA.                          
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADD A MIX INTO DAYTON AS LATEST RUC AND NAM               
SUGGEST SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW. ALSO WANTED TO PLAY DOWN                
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE LIGHT PRECIP AND                
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 32 WILL KEEP ANY LIGHT SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING.                
ACROSS THE NORTH ADDED ACCUM TO GRASSY AREAS. OTHERWISE JUST DID                
SOME REWORDING.                                                                 
ALSO RAISED LOWS IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO TO AROUND 30. HIGHER TDS ACROSS           
INDIANA...30 TO 32...WILL WORK IN AND WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM                   
FALLING BELOW 30S.                                                              
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 430 PM EST SUN MAR 5 2006)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...                                   
AREA IS UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW ABOUT TO             
DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER THE                 
UPPER LOW DEPARTS...A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY BY LATE TUESDAY.              
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI                  
VALLEY THROUGH KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT. LARGE SWATH OF MAINLY            
LIGHT SNOW IS EVIDENT FROM OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR. KEPT CATEGORICAL             
POPS ALL ZONES FOR TONIGHT.                                                     
LOW'S TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY'S MODELS INDICATED. THIS            
WILL CAUSE SNOW TO BE MORE PREVALENT...THOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN              
EARLY TONIGHT UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYERS COOLS FROM EVAPORATION. THIS                
EVENT WILL NOT BE A WHOPPER IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...SO              
KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT AN INCH OR LESS.  ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO            
BE MITIGATED BY WARM GROUND AND ATMOSPHERE.                                     
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW EXITS EAST EARLY MONDAY...UPPER LOW WILL COME             
INTO PLAY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL DESTABILIZE THE               
ATMOSPHERE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAIN AND SNOW               
SHOWERS THAT WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. INCREASED POPS TO              
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DEPART SOUTH BY              
AROUND MIDNIGHT.                                                                
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY. WITH MODELS                
TRENDING SLOWER...BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY                
NIGHT. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY IN WESTERN                 
ZONES.                                                                          
MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS WILL              
GENERALLY BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS.                                      
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO UNDERGO A CHANGE WITH A MEAN TROF                        
DEVELOPING OVER THE W AND STG RIDGE OVER THE EAST. THIS PLACES THE              
OHIO VALLEY IN A WARM AND MOIST SWRLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A SERIES OF             
SFC WAVES EJECT NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE                
PERIOD WARM FRONT TO PIVOT NWD INTO THE GRTLKS WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE             
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHD OF THIS WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.                
BASED ON TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL WED MRNG.                 
INITIAL SFC LOW TO EJECT FROM NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT                 
LAKES WED NIGHT. HAVE THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP AND THE MENTION OF                
THUNDER ACRS THE NW WHERE BEST MSTR AND LIFT WL EXIST.                          
S/W TO TAKE ON A NEG TILT WITH NEXT DEEPER SFC WAVE EJECTING NE                 
FROM THE LWR MS VLY THU INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI MRNG. ELEVATED              
INSTBY INDICATED AHD OF THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT THU INTO FRI. HAVE                
SPREAD LKLY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE FA ALONG WITH THE MENT OF THUNDER.             
EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIP DURG THE AFTN FRI THRU FRI NIGHT. THE               
NEXT ENHANCED CHC OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP SAT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH              
FROPA FINALLY COMING THRU EARLY ON SUNDAY. AGAIN HAVE ADDED THE                 
MENT OF THUNDER SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH MODERATE INSTBY INDICATED.                   
HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO WRMR MEX GUID TEMP VALUES THRU THE               
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA                                          
212 PM EST MON MAR 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD                
ACROSS THE MICHIGAN AND OHIO. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH             
LIFT FROM AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTER. SURFACE DATA SHOWS THE                    
PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE MAINLY SNOW WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE                  
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.                        
BOTH RECENT RUC AND NAM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS PRECIPITATION                 
PERHAPS JUST BRUSHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING, AND SO                
THIS IS WHAT WAS FORECASTED.                                                    
AFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS INTO SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA, EXPECT RIDGE             
BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, INITIATING AN ONSET OF DRY               
WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH LESSENING CLOUDS.              
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN NORMAL,              
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN               
MONDAY, DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLES OF MARCH.                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
RECENT GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS, INCLUDING  ALL MREF ENSEMBLE                   
MEMBERS SHOW A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO EARLY            
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR             
THE PACIFIC COAST AND A SUBSEQUENT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW               
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.                                               
THE BEST PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY THIS PERIOD WILL BE WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT            
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES. MOST OF THE TIME THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IN THE             
WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES.                    
CONSEQUENTLY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT THE                 
EVENT.                                                                          
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITY, AGAIN RAIN, WILL BE SATURDAY                
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE                  
EASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND               
THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE COOLER, BUT WITH THE UPPER FLOW            
STILL WITH PACIFIC ORIGINS, SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD            
THROUGH WESTERN OHIO THIS EVENING. THIS CAN CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS               
(3SM -SN OVC020) AT KZZV UNTIL 23Z. AFTER THAT THE TREND ACROSS THE             
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, ACCORDING TO RECENT NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS, WILL             
BE LESSENING CLOUDS WITH BASES MAINLY IN THE ALTOCUMULUS TO CIRRUS              
RANGE. VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH            
AT SPEEDS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
PA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1039 PM CST SUN MAR 5 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST BASED UPON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. RUC SHOWS                   
UPPER VORT OVER THE REGION WHICH IS PUSHING THE TSTRM ACTIVITY OUT              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO FURTHER UPDATES EXPECTED.                              
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VALLE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tn