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FGUS75 KTFX 112127
ESFTFX
112127-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
227 PM MST WED FEB 11 2009

...MONTANA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK AS OF FEBRUARY 2009...

MONTANA WATER SUPPLY FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS IN COOPERATION AND COORDINATION WITH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MISSOULA AND  THE NATURAL
RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.

THE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR THE 2009 SUMMER SEASON PROJECTS WATER
SUPPLIES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WATER SUPPLIES ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH A FEW SITES WELL BELOW AVERAGE. THESE
FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE AND RUNOFF CONDITIONS FOR
FEBRUARY THROUGH JULY AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR MUCH BELOW AVERAGE...70
PERCENT OR LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 PERCENT OR MORE...SNOWMELT
OR SPRING RAINS.

JANUARY SAW WIDELY VARIABLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE
NORMAL OVERALL...BUT RANGED FROM A HIGH OF 71 DEGREES AT HEART BUTTE
ON THE 19TH TO A LOW OF -42 AT WESTBY ON THE 15TH. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WERE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS. 

PRECIPITATION WAS VARIABLE...HOWEVER MOST AREAS RECEIVED BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. HEAVY SNOWS FELL OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WITH A STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH ON THE 1ST AND 2ND
WITH UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FALLING AT WHITEWATER AND EIGHT FOOT
SNOW DRIFTS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
KALISPELL RECEIVED TWO FEET OF SNOW OVER THE TWO DAYS...WITH UP TO
THREE FEET IN THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS. GREAT FALLS SET A DAILY SNOWFALL
RECORD ON THE 2ND RECEIVING 6.2 INCHES OF SNOW. ANOTHER STORM
AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON THE 6TH AND 7TH...DROPPING UP TO
20 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 5 INCHES NEAR HARDIN.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT ON THE 9TH BROUGHT UP TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW TO THE WHITETAIL AND SCOBEY AREAS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE
REPORTED OVER MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ON THE
11TH AND AGAIN ON THE 13TH.  A STORM SYSTEM THEN MOVED INTO THE
STATE ON THE 14TH PRODUCING UP TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MONTANA. RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILED UNTIL THE 22ND
WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT AGAIN BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
NORTHEAST MONTANA. A STORM AFFECTED SOUTHERN MONTANA BRINGING UP TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS ON THE 24TH AND 25TH.
ANOTHER 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVER AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON
THE 27TH. 

ONE SITE TO NOTE...BOZEMAN RECORDED ONLY 0.11 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION...THE 4TH DRIEST JANUARY OF RECORD AND THE DRIEST
SINCE 1987. 

SNOWPACK...

BY FEBRUARY 1...THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT 60 TO 65 PERCENT OF SEASONAL
SNOWPACK IN PLACE IN MONTANA.

MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK AS OF FEBRUARY 1...
                                  PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
                                   AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                             93            91
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE        90            89
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE        97            98

PRECIPITATION...

MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR JANUARY...
                                  PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
                                   AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                             98            88
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       106            98
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE        89            79

MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR THE WATER YEAR...
                                  PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
                                   AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                            102            98
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE        98            94
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       106           101

CALENDAR YEAR 2009 AND WATER YEAR 2009 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SELECTED CITIES ARE SHOWN BELOW...

                 PERCENT OF NORMAL      PERCENT OF NORMAL
                 CALENDAR YEAR 2009      WATER YEAR 2009
CITY              JAN 1 TO JAN 31        OCT 1 TO JAN 31  

BILLINGS                53                    107
BOZEMAN                 18                     66
BUTTE                   28                    109
CUT BANK                 0                     24
DILLON                  15                     59
GLASGOW                131                    185
GREAT FALLS             66                    110
HAVRE                   85                    107
HELENA                  77                    114
KALISPELL              118                    104
LEWISTOWN               75                     86
MILES CITY              21                     99
MISSOULA                58                    116

RESERVOIRS...

MAJOR RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 1
                                  PERCENT OF    PERCENT OF
                                   AVERAGE      LAST YEAR
STATEWIDE                             90           112
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE       126           101
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE        78           118

PERCENT OF NORMAL RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF FEBRUARY 1 FOR SELECTED
RESERVOIRS 

RESERVOIR                            ERCENT OF NORMAL
                                    FEB 1       FEB 1
                                     2009        2008
 
BIGHORN RESERVOIR                     111        102
CANYON FERRY RESERVOIR                101         89
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR                 77         72
FLATHEAD LAKE                          97         94
FORT PECK LAKE                         67         56
FRESNO RESERVOIR                      143         88
GIBSON RESERVOIR                       79         NA
HEBGEN RESERVOIR                       98         96
HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR                116        115
LAKE ELWELL / TIBER RESERVOIR         109         96
LAKE KOOCANUSA                        150        149
LAKE SHERBURNE                        237        114
LIMA RESERVOIR                         93         54
NELSON RESERVOIR                      105         90
PISHKIN RESERVOIR                     104         50
SWIFT RESERVOIR                        86         77
WILLOW CREEK RESERVOIR                138        120

STREAMFLOW...

STREAMFLOW FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD APRIL 1 THROUGH JULY 31...ASSUMING
NORMAL PRECIPITATION

                                 PERCENT OF   PERCENT OF AVERAGE
                                  AVERAGE     INDIVIDUAL BASINS
STATEWIDE                        81 TO 94         66 TO 132
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE   83 TO 93         75 TO 110
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE   80 TO 96         66 TO 132

BELOW ARE AVERAGED RIVER BASIN RUNOFF FORECAST SUMMARIES FOR THE
PERIOD APRIL THROUGH SEPTEMBER. THESE FORECASTS ASSUME NEAR NORMAL
SPRING CONDITIONS AND DO NOT ACCOUNT FOR WELL BELOW AVERAGE...70 OR
LESS...OR ABOVE AVERAGE...110 OR MORE...SNOWMELT OR SPRING RAIN.

FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE
PROVIDED BY THE NORTHWEST RIVER FORECAST CENTER IN
PORTLAND...OREGON. FORECASTS FOR RIVERS AND SITES EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE FROM THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
IN PLEASANT HILL...MISSOURI. ALL FORECASTS ARE IN COOPERATION AND
COORDINATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.

                                    MOST   
                                  PROBABLE REASONABLE REASONABLE
                                  FORECAST   MAXIMUM    MINIMUM
                          PERIOD  /PCT AVG/ /PCT AVG/  /PCT AVG/
COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN

KOOTENAI RIVER                                         
  LIBBY RESVR INFLOW      APR-SEP     84       107        61
CLARK FORK  
  ABOVE BLACKFOOT RIVER   APR-SEP     99       155        44
  ABOVE MISSOULA          APR-SEP    102       149        55
  BELOW MISSOULA          APR-SEP     97       125        70
  ST. REGIS               APR-SEP     96       138        53
  NEAR PLAINS             APR-SEP     91       121        61
BLACKFOOT RIVER  
  NEAR BONNER             APR-SEP    100       140        59
BITTERROOT RIVER
  AT MOUTH                APR-SEP     94       120        68
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
  NEAR COLUMBIA FALLS     APR-SEP     83       104        62
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER
  NEAR WEST GLACIER       APR-SEP     86       106        65
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                             
  HUNGRY HORSE RES INFLOW APR-SEP     94       122        66
FLATHEAD RIVER
  COLUMBIA FALLS          APR-SEP     88       112        63
  FLATHEAD LAKE INFLOW    APR-SEP     89       117        62

SASKATCHEWAN RIVER BASIN
                                                            
ST. MARY RIVER
  BABB NR                 APR-SEP     77        92        61

MISSOURI RIVER BASIN

RED ROCK RIVER
  LIMA RES INFLOW         APR-SEP     89       126        53
BEAVERHEAD RIVER
  CLARK CANYON INFLOW     APR-SEP     87       147        26
  BARRETTS                APR-SEP     89       160        17
RUBY RIVER
  RUBY RESERVOIR INFLOW   APR-SEP     86       116        56
BIG HOLE RIVER
  NEAR MELROSE            APR-SEP    117       151        84
MADISON RIVER
  HEBGEN RES INFLOW       APR-SEP     87       104        70
  ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOW  APR-SEP     86       106        65
GALLATIN RIVER
  NEAR GALLATIN GATEWAY   APR-SEP     97       118        76
  LOGAN                   APR-SEP     97       131        64
MISSOURI RIVER
  TOSTON                  APR-SEP     96       128        63
  FORT BENTON             APR-SEP     97       131        64
  VIRGELLE                APR-SEP     98       134        62
  NEAR LANDUSKY           APR-SEP     94       127        60
  BELOW FORT PECK DAM     APR-SEP     96       131        60
SHEEP CREEK 
  WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS   APR-SEP    105       135        74
SUN RIVER
  GIBSON RES INFLOW       APR-SEP     81       101        61
MARIAS RIVER
  NEAR SHELBY             APR-SEP     66       109        23
MUSSELSHELL RIVER
  HARLOWTON               APR-SEP     98       169        26
MILK RIVER
  WESTERN CROSSING        APR-SEP     67       116        22
  EASTERN CROSSING        APR-SEP     77       152        39
YELLOWSTONE RIVER
  YELLOWSTN LK OUTLT...WY APR-SEP     98       114        81
  CORWIN SPRINGS          APR-SEP    100       116        84
  NEAR LIVINGSTON         APR-SEP     99       115        82
  BILLINGS                APR-SEP    100       126        73
  MILES CITY              APR-SEP     98       124        72
  NEAR SIDNEY             APR-SEP     99       125        73
BOULDER RIVER
  BIG TIMBER              APR-SEP    108       133        83
STILLWATER RIVER
  NEAR ABSAROKEE          APR-SEP     92       112        73
CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER
  NEAR BELFRY             APR-SEP     97       113        82
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER
  NEAR HARDIN             APR-SEP    105       142        68
TONGUE RIVER
  TONGUE RIVER RES INFLOW APR-SEP    126       170        82
POWDER RIVER
  MOORHEAD                APR-SEP    130       176        86
  LOCATE                  APR-SEP    133       185        81
  
DEFINITIONS
MOST PROBABLE FORECAST...GIVEN THE CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS TO DATE...THIS IS THE BEST ESTIMATE OF WHAT THE ACTUAL
RUNOFF VOLUME WILL BE THIS SEASON. 

REASONABLE MAXIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A TEN (10) PERCENT CHANCE
OF BEING EXCEEDED. 

REASONABLE MINIMUM FORECAST...GIVEN CURRENT HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS...THE SEASONAL RUNOFF THAT HAS A NINETY (90) PERCENT
CHANCE OF BEING EXCEEDED. 

SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX...

THE SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX...SWSI...IS A MEASURE OF AVAILABLE
SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER MONTHS. WATER
USERS WHO RELY ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION CAN USE THE INDEX TO
EVALUATE SEASONAL SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES. THE SWSI ACCOUNTS FOR
MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK...MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION...
STREAMFLOW...RESERVOIR STORAGE AND SOIL MOISTURE. SWSI VALUES ARE
CALCULATED FOR 52 BASINS IN MONTANA. SWSI VALUES ARE PROVIDED BY THE
NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...USDA.

                                               NUMBER OF BASINS
SWSI RATING         SURFACE WATER CONDITION      2009    2008
-3.0 TO -4.0            EXTREMELY DRY              0       4
-2.0 TO -2.9            MODERATELY DRY             4       0
-1.0 TO -1.9            SLIGHTLY DRY               9       7
-0.9 TO +0.9            NEAR AVERAGE              28      32
+1.0 TO +1.9            SLIGHTLY WET               8       8
+2.0 TO +2.9            MODERATELY WET             2       1
+3.0 TO +4.0            EXTREMELY WET              1       0
                        NOT AVAILABLE              0       0

VALUES FOR SPECIFIC BASINS AS OF FEBRUARY 1 2009 AND 2008 ARE LISTED
BELOW...
                                         SWSI        SWSI
BASIN                                    2009        2008
TOBACCO RIVER                            -1.1        -0.3
KOOTENAI FT. STEELE TO LIBBY DAM         -2.1         0.0
KOOTENAI RIVER BELOW LIBBY DAM            0.3         1.7
FISHER RIVER                              1.0         0.1
YAAK RIVER                               -1.0         1.0
NORTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                -2.2         0.1
MIDDLE FORK FLATHEAD RIVER               -1.5        -0.5
SOUTH FORK FLATHEAD RIVER                -0.2        -0.3
FLATHEAD RIVER AT COLUMBIA FALLS         -1.3         0.1
SWAN RIVER                               -0.5        -1.4
FLATHEAD RIVER AT POLSON                 -1.0        -0.9
MISSION VALLEY                            1.2        -3.7
LITTLE BITTERROOT RIVER                  -0.8        -1.5
CLARK FORK RIVER ABOVE MILLTOWN           1.1        -0.4
BLACKFOOT RIVER                           0.5        -0.3
BITTERROOT RIVER                          0.4         0.3
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW BITTERROOT RIVER   0.7        -1.7
CLARK FORK RIVER BELOW FLATHEAD RIVER    -0.4         0.0
BEAVERHEAD RIVER                         -0.2         0.4
RUBY RIVER                               -0.5        -0.6
BIG HOLE RIVER                            1.3         0.6
BOULDER RIVER (JEFFERSON)                 0.9        -1.3
JEFFERSON RIVER                           1.7         1.2
MADISON RIVER                            -0.4         0.8
GALLATIN RIVER                            0.9         1.2
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE CANYON FERRY         0.2         0.4
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW CANYON FERRY         0.3        -0.2
SMITH RIVER                               0.5         0.5
SUN RIVER                                -0.4        -0.4
TETON RIVER                               0.3         0.4
BIRCH/DUPUYER CREEKS                     -1.3        -3.5
UPPER JUDITH RIVER                        1.1        -1.8
MARIAS RIVER ABOVE TIBER                 -1.4        -0.3
MARIAS RIVER BELOW TIBER                 -1.2        -1.4
MUSSELSHELL RIVER                         1.1        -0.6
MISSOURI RIVER ABOVE FT. PECK             0.6        -1.1
MISSOURI RIVER BELOW FT. PECK            -2.4        -3.4
ST. MARY RIVER                           -2.4         1.5
MILK RIVER                                0.5        -0.4
DEARBORN RIVER NEAR CRAIG                -1.0         0.2
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE LIVINGSTON        0.8         1.7
SHIELDS RIVER                             0.2        -0.1
BOULDER RIVER (YELLOWSTONE)               2.2         0.5
STILLWATER RIVER                          0.3         0.5
ROCK/RED LODGE CREEKS                     0.1        -3.1
CLARKS FORK RIVER                         0.6         2.0
YELLOWSTONE RIVER ABOVE BIGHORN RIVER     0.8         1.4
BIGHORN RIVER BELOW BIGHORN LAKE          0.9        -0.1
LITTLE BIGHORN RIVER                      1.8        -0.3
YELLOWSTONE RIVER BELOW BIGHORN RIVER     0.9         0.7
TONGUE RIVER                              3.1         0.2
POWDER RIVER                              2.4         1.8

OUTLOOK...
 
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF FEBRUARY INDICATES THERE IS A 40 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER NORTHWEST
MONTANA...AND A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCIES FOR THIS PERIOD AND
THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE...STATISTICAL TOOLS NO TENDENCY FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  

FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO
TEMPERATURE TENDENCIES FOR THIS PERIOD AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR
PRECIPITATION...STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOW NO TENDENCY FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION STATEWIDE. 

THE NEXT WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR 2009 WILL BE ISSUED BY MARCH 15.

$$
 
.END/LOSS