000
FGUS74 KSJT 271820
ESFSJT
TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353-
399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-280030-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
120 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE BRING SOME RELIEF...

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BROUGHT MILDER TEMPERATURES
AND PERIODS OF MOISTURE TO MUCH OF TEXAS. DURING THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER TWO
INCHES OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE LANDSCAPE HAS RESPONDED WITH IMPROVED
VEGETATION GROWTH. THE MOISTURE RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS
HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
AND RENEWED HOPE THAT CROPS AND PASTURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO
PROSPER AGAIN.

FROM OCTOBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 26...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 2.21
INCHES OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS 2.57 INCHES.
YEAR TO DATE...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 16.81 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS 1.75 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

FROM OCTOBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 26...ABILENE RECEIVED 1.43 INCHES
OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS 2.91 INCHES. YEAR TO
DATE...ABILENE RECEIVED 19.49 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS 1.34
INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON OCTOBER 24...SHOWS THAT WHILE RECENT
RAINS HAVE CREATED IMPROVEMENTS...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE USDM DEPICTS
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE
CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...
THE RAINS CONTINUE TO REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS AND
GROUNDWATER SHORTAGES. LITTLE RUNOFF HAS BEEN PRODUCED FROM THE
RAINFALL EVENTS DUE TO THE DRY GROUND. FLOWS IN AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECLINE AS STREAMFLOWS CANNOT SUSTAIN THE
DAILY LOSSES FROM EVAPORATION...AGRICULTURAL AND MUNICIPAL USES.
SINCE LITTLE RUNOFF HAS OCCURRED DURING THE YEAR...MANY LIVESTOCK
TANKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CONSIDERABLY LOW OR DRIED UP.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 26...
 
/                    CURRENT   CONSERVATION     CURRENT             %
/                  ELEVATION       CAPACITY    CAPACITY  CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR               (FT)        (AC-FT)     (AC-FT)      CAPACITY

FORT PHANTOM HILL   1627.32           70036       41690           60
LAKE STAMFORD       1413.20           51570       35420           69
HUBBARD CREEK       1169.30          318070      157310           49
HORDS CREEK LAKE    1892.20            8112        4850           60
LAKE BROWNWOOD      1418.90          131428       97480           74
E.V. SPENCE         1848.60          517272       72380           14
O.C. FISHER         1867.84          119200        8440            7
O.H. IVIE           1529.50          554340      231500           42
TWIN BUTTES (N+S)   1909.79          186200       41150           22
LAKE NASWORTHY      1870.86           10108        8290           82

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AS OF OCTOBER 27...AT LEAST 10 COUNTIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS. THE TEXAS
FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A
SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO
BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO
800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY
DRY SOIL. AS OF OCTOBER 26...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS
THAT MOST OF THE REGION FALLS WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE. IN THIS
RANGE FIRE INTENSITY BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. FIRES WILL
READILY BURN IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXPOSING MINERAL SOILS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. LARGER FUELS MAY BURN OR SMOLDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS
CREATING POSSIBLE SMOKE AND CONTROL PROBLEMS. A FEW COUNTIES FALL
WITHIN THE 200 TO 400 RANGE. IN THIS RANGE FIRES MORE READILY BURN
AND WILL CARRY ACROSS AN AREA WITH NO GAPS. HEAVIER FUELS WILL
STILL NOT READILY IGNITE AND BURN. ALSO...EXPECT SMOLDERING AND
THE RESULTING SMOKE TO CARRY INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO
WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE
EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
IMPROVEMENTS IN SOIL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN MADE DURING THE LAST FEW
RAINFALL EVENTS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYZES THE
PERCENT OF AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS OF
OCTOBER 26...THE AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE RANGES FROM 70 PERCENT OF
NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RANGES FROM 20 MM TO 60 MM OR AROUND
0.75 OF AN INCH TO 2.40 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED OCTOBER 25 BY
THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL
IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING DOWN...SOME RAINFALL WAS REPORTED IN A FEW COUNTIES...
PRODUCERS ARE PREPARING FIELDS FOR FALL PLANTING...PLANTED OATS
HAVE EMERGED WITH MODERATE GROWTH...HAY IS BEING CUT AND BALED ON
IRRIGATED PASTURES...COTTON HARVEST IS UNDER WAY BUT THE CROP
WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS LAST YEAR...RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WINTER GRASSES AND FORBS ARE DOING
WELL...STOCK TANKS CONTINUE TO NEED WATER...PECAN HARVEST IS UNDER
WAY.

OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH
JANUARY INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH JANUARY. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE CONSIDERING
THE INTENSIFYING EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY SHOWS
THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
INTENSIFYING EL NINO SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS WINTER. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS TEXAS...THIS DOES NOT
NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO DROUGHT ELIMINATION. WITH LOW WATER
SUPPLIES AFFECTING MANY AREAS...IT COULD TAKE A LONG TIME AND A
LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE DROUGHT COMPLETELY.

FOR GRAPHICS AND WEB LINKS...GO TO OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEBPAGE
LOCATED AT...
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML

$$