PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2003

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 22 - 26 2003
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION
PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY BY DAY 5. THE 0Z AND 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS RETAIN MORE
AMPLITUDE WITH THE CIRCULATION AT DAY 5 COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
ALL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CENTERED EAST OF HUDSON BAY
AND A RIDGE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST AS THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS...
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO
THE 0Z AND 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH IN THE WEST. THE GFS BASED SOLUTIONS DO NOT BRING AS 
MUCH ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODEL 
SOLUTIONS AT DAY 5.

DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN. BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN HALF. THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGE IN THE WEST WHILE THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF IS
FASTER AND DEEPER WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN
TERMS OF HEIGHT ANOMALIES BOTH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION
ECMWF FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CONUS AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD... THOUGH THE ECMWF
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE OZ OPERATIONAL 
GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS EXCEPT IT
HAS SOMEWHAT LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THE 6Z GFS IS ALSO VERY 
SIMILAR TO THE 0Z OPERATONAL GFS BUT IT IS FASTER WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE DAVA CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THOUGH
IT IS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES INDICATE
RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD THOUGH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE INDICATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE IN THE WEST.
THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS
FROM YESTERDAY. THE PNA INDEX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE OVER THE
NEXT TWO WEEKS WHILE THE NAO INDEX WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS 
FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO.

MODEL OF THE DAY: HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY... 4 
ON A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5 DUE TO GOOD MODEL AND FORECAST TOOL AGREEMENT.

THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 20 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 25 PERCENT OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF
CENTERED ON DAY 7... 20 PERCENT OF THE 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8... 15 PERCENT
OF THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8... 15 PERCENT OF THE 0Z
OPERATIONAL GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8 AND 5 PERCENT OF THE DAVA CENTERED ON DAY
8.

THE D+8 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE OFFICAL HEIGHT BLEND CHART... ANALOGS TO THE 6Z GFS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
ECMWF... THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FIELD... MOS TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE BIAS CORRECTED 850-HPA TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z 
OPERATIONAL GFS.

THE D+8 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
PERCENTAGES... ANALOGS TO THE 6Z GFS AND HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF HEIGHT FIELDS...
THE NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE OFFICAL HEIGHT BLEND...THE CALIBRATED 
PRECIPITATION FOM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATION 
FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS. 


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8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 24 - 30 2003

THE TREND OF THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS TOWARDS DEAMPLFICIATION CONTINUES DURING
THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS THE CIRCULATION FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS. THE 6Z
GFS IS FASTER AND MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND
WAS DISCOUNTED. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DAVA GENERALLY SUPPORT THE 0Z 
OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION. TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE CIRCULATION FEATURES COMPARED TO 
THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY.  THE GFS ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS
INDICATE A MODERATE AMOUNT OF SPREAD ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.

THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT PROG FOR TODAY CONSISTS OF 60 PERCENT OF TODAYS GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11... 30 PERCENT OF TODAYS 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS 
CENTERED ON DAY 11 AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAYS DAVA CENTERED ON DAY 11.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD IS AVERAGE TODAY... RATED A 3 ON 
A SCALE FROM 1 TO 5.
 
THE D+11 TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS 
TO THE BLEND... THE CDC CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ANALOGS TO THE BLENDED 
HEIGHT FIELD... THOUGH AGAIN TODAY THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPEARTURES IN THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE ANALOGS WAS SCALED BACK BECAUSE THE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED 
TO BE AS LOW THERE AS THE ANALOGS SUGGEST... AND THE 850-HPA BIAS CORRECTED 
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z OPERATIONAL GFS.

THE D+11 PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE GFS ENSEMBLE CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES... NEURAL NET SPECIFICATIONS TO THE BLEND...ANALOGS
TO THE BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD AND THE  BIAS CORRECTED PRECIPITATIONFROM THE 0Z 
OPERATIONAL GFS.

 
FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
NOTES: 

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS:---------------------------------------------

AC - ANOMALY CORRELATION - A MEASURE OF HOW WELL A MODEL FORECASTS
THE HEIGHT OR HEIGHT ANOMALY FIELD OBTAINED BY CORRELATING THE
IMPLIED GRADIENTS OF THE TWO ANOMALY PATTERNS BEING COMPARED.

ANALOG (NATURAL ANALOG) - A WEATHER MAP THAT RESEMBLES ANOTHER
WEATHER MAP - USUALLY FROM DIFFERENT YEARS BUT THE SAME SEASON IN
THE HISTORICAL RECORD.  THE CRITERION FOR SELECTING AN ANALOG IS
OFTEN THE PATTERN CORRELATION BETWEEN THE MAPS.  TWO MAPS WILL JUST
BEGIN TO RESEMBLE EACH OTHER TO THE HUMAN EYE AT A PATTERN
CORRELATION OF ABOUT 40%.  TO BE USEFUL - ANALOGS NEED TO HAVE MUCH
HIGHER CORRELATIONS TO THE ORIGINAL MAP THAN THAT - 80% OR MORE.
ANALOGS ARE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND AS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION
BEING STUDIED INCREASES IN SIZE.  PERFECT ANALOGS TO THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SIMPLY DO NO EXIST - FOR PRACTICAL PURPOSES.
THIS IS WHY SIMPLE NATURAL ANALOG FORECAST METHODS DO NOT WORK VERY
WELL.

ANOMALY - THE ARITHMETIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VALUE OF A VARIABLE
AT A GIVEN PLACE AND TIME AND THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF THAT VARIABLE
AT THAT PLACE AND TIME OF YEAR.

AO - ARCTIC OSCILLATION - A MEASURE OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MEAN MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT OR SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALY OVER THE
POLAR BASIN AND THE CORRESPONDING AVERAGE ANOMALY IN A RING
SURROUNDING THE POLAR BASIN AT MIDDLE LATITUDES.  THE AO IS
CONSIDERED TO BE THE LEADING MODE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THE AO CAN ALSO BE CONSIDERED TO
INCLUDE THE NAO (NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION) WITH WHICH IT IS
POSITIVELY CORRELATED - BUT NOT IDENTICAL.  THE PHASE OF THE AO IS
CONSIDERED TO BE POSITIVE WHEN HEIGHTS OR PRESSURES ARE BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE ARCTIC BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER SURROUNDING MID-
LATITUDES - AND IS NEGATIVE FOR THE REVERSE ANOMALY PATTERN.

BLEND - A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECAST MAPS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS.  WEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY ASSIGNED SUBJECTIVELY BY THE
FORECASTER.  THE SUM OF THE WEIGHTS MUST BE 1.  WEIGHTS ARE APPLIED
BY MULTIPLYING EACH 500-HPA MAP BY ITS WEIGHT AND ADDING ALL OF THE
WEIGHTED MAPS TOGETHER TO MAKE THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA FORECAST.

CONUS - CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES.

DAVA - DIVERGENT ANOMALY VORTICITY ADVECTION MODEL.  THIS IS A
BAROTROPIC MODEL WITH DIVERGENCE IN IT TO ALLOW MORE ACCURATE
PREDICTION OF LONG WAVES THAN A STANDARD BAROTROPIC MODEL.
REFERENCE:  QIN J. AND H.M. VAN DEN DOOL - 1996: SIMPLE EXTENSIONS
OF AN NWP MODEL.  MON. WEA. REV. - VOL 124 - PP 277-287.

EL NINO - THE WARM PHASE OF ENSO.

ENSO - EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION.

FLOW PATTERN - THE PATTERN OF WIND INFERRED BY THE 500-HPA CONTOURS -
THE WIND TENDS TO BLOW PARALLEL TO THE CONTOURS WITH LOW HEIGHT ON
THE LEFT - IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - THE OPPOSITE IS TRUE IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE.  WIND SPEED IS INVERSELY PROPORTIONAL TO THE
SPACING BETWEEN THE CONTOURS.

GFS - GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM.  THIS REFERS TO ANY OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS RUN AT NCEP FOUR TIMES A DAY THAT USED TO BE REFERRED TO AS
THE MRF AND AVN MODELS.  THE MODEL RUN INITIATED AT 00Z (00 GMT) IS
CURRENTLY THE ONLY ONE USED BY CPC IN ITS OFFICIAL BLEND FORECAST -
ALTHOUGH THE OTHERS CAN BE CONSIDERED BY THE FORECASTER IN
FORMULATING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.

GFS ENSEMBLE - A SET OF GFS FORECASTS WHICH ARE ALL VALID AT THE SAME
TIME BUT WHOSE STARTING CONDITIONS DIFFER BY SMALL AMOUNTS.  THERE
ARE CURRENTLY 25 MEMBERS IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE.  THE AVERAGE OF THESE
IS THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

500-HPA HEIGHT IS THE HEIGHT - IN METERS - ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL -
WHICH ABOUT HALF OF THE MASS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LIES ABOVE AND BELOW -
AS MEASURED BY THE PRESSURE.  UPPER AIR STORM SYSTEMS TEND TO BE
STEERED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE WINDS AT 500-HPA.  500-HPA SYSTEMS
CORRELATE STRONGLY WITH SURFACE WEATHER.

HPA - HECTO-PASCALS.  1 HPA = 1 MILLIBAR.

LA NINA - THE COLD PHASE OF ENSO.

MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS EXHIBIT LARGE
NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXCURSIONS WITH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF SOUTHERLY
AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODEL BIAS - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY AND THE
OBSERVED CLIMATOLOGY - EXPRESSED AS BIAS = MODEL CLIMO - OBSERVED
CLIMO.

MODEL OF THE DAY - FOR 6-10 DAYS - IS THE MODEL WHOSE SOLUTION IS
CONSIDERED TO BE MORE RELIABLE THAN USUAL - AND MAY BE GIVEN HIGHER
THAN TYPICAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND.  NO MODEL OF THE DAY IS CHOSEN FOR
8-14 DAYS.

MOS - MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS - A STATISITCAL TOOL FOR SPECIFYING THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (AND ITS ANOMALY) FROM MODEL FIELDS - CORRECTING
AUTOMATICALLY FOR BOTH BIASES IN THE MODEL FIELDS AND THE
SPECIFICATION METHOD.  IT IS VALID AS LONG AS A GIVEN CONFIGURATION
OF A MODEL IS NOT CHANGED OR MODIFIED. 

MJO - MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION - ALSO CALLED TROPICAL INTRA-SEASONAL
OSCILLATION - A SERIES OF WAVES WITH A PERIOD AVERAGING 50 DAYS THAT
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE EQUATOR ALTERNATELY ENHANCING AND
SUPRESSING PRECIPITATION.

NAO - NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION TELECONNECTION PATTERN.  IT CAN ALSO
BE VIEWED AS THE ATLANTIC HALF OF THE AO (ARCTIC OSCILLATION)
TELECONNECTION PATTERN - STRONGLY INFLUENCES TEMPERATURES OVER EUROPE
AND MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA - ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASONS - AND
DETERMINES THE MEAN LATITUDE OF THE PREVAILING STORM TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PHASE OF THE NAO IS CONSIDERED POSITIVE WHEN
PRESSURES AND HEIGHTS ARE BELOW NORMAL OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND
(STRONG ICELANDIC LOW) AND ABOVE NORMAL AT MIDDLE AND SUBTROPICAL
LATITUDES (STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH) - AND NEGATIVE FOR THE
REVERSE ANOMALIES.

PNA - PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION PATTERN.

PROG - PROGNOSIS - OR FORECAST.

PROGRESSION OR PROGRESSIVE MOTION - THE NORMAL MOVEMENT OF
ATMOSPHERIC WEATHER SYSTEMS (HIGHS... LOWS... RIDGES... OR TROUGHS)
FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDES.

RETROGRESSION OR RETROGRADE MOTION - A TYPE OF MOTION SOMETIMES
OBSERVED IN WEATHER SYSTEMS WHEN THEY END UP IN POSITIONS FURTHER TO
THE WEST THAN THEIR ORIGINAL LOCATIONS - CONTRARY TO THEIR USUAL WEST
TO EAST MOTION.

RIDGE - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY HIGH 500-HPA HEIGHT.

SHORT WAVES - RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE - FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES OF
THE 500-HPA FIELD.

SOUTHERN STREAM - A FLOW PATTERN WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN U.S. - ACCOMPANIED BY UNUSUAL STORMINESS IN THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST.

SPECIFICATIONS - KLEIN AND NEURAL NETWORK SPECIFICATIONS GIVE THE
HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.  KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE REGIONAL TELECONNECTIONS WHILE THOSE FROM THE NEURAL
NETWORK WORK FROM GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS.
         .         .         .         .         .         .         .
TELECONNECTIONS GIVE THE HISTORICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT AT A GIVEN POINT AND ALL OTHER POINTS ON A MAP FOR A GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR. WE AVERAGE THE TOP/BOTTOM 10% OF DAILY MAPS FROM
1950-1999 FOR THE SAME TIME OF YEAR HAVING THE HIGHEST/LOWEST 500-HPA
HEIGHT AT THE SPECIFIED POINT.

TROUGH - A REGION OF UNUSUALLY LOW 500-HPA HEIGHT. 

UTC - UNIVERSAL TIME COORDINATED - SAME AS GREENWICH MEAN TIME (GMT).

WESTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM WEST TO EAST.

EASTERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM EAST TO WEST.

NORTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH

SOUTHERLY WIND - WIND BLOWING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

ZONAL FLOW PATTERN - OCCURS WHEN 500-HPA CONTOURS LIE IN AN EAST-WEST
DIRECTION PARALLEL TO LATITUDE CIRCLES WITH NEARLY PURE WEST-TO-EAST
FLOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
THE NEXT MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ... 
THURSDAY DEC 18 2003.



 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19821222 - 19511202 - 19521225 - 19811202 - 19731227
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19521225 - 19511203 - 19821222 - 19731227 - 19521222
 
6 to 10 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N     
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B     
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N     
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     N    N     
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N     
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   A    B     
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    N     
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N     
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    N     
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N     
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A     
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A     
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A     
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    N     
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A     
 
8 to 14 day Outlook Table
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   N    N     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N     
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B     
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B     
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B     
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    N     
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B     
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   A    B     
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    A    N     
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    N     
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    N     
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N     
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A     
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N     
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A     
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A     
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    N     
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
 
$$