000
WTUS84 KMOB 281946
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-282305-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
246 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA REMAINS A CATEGORY 5 WITH 175 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...

...RECORD STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG ALABAMA COAST...POSSIBLY
WORSE THAN HURRICANE FREDERIC OF 1979...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS
IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH...
MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...BALDWIN AND
MOBILE COUNTIES.

IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...GEORGE...STONE...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES.

IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...OKALOOSA...ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND MOBILE AND
BALDWIN COUNTIES. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR STONE
AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AND INLAND
ESCAMBIA...SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR ESCAMBIA...COVINGTON...WASHINGTON...CONECUH...
MONROE...BUTLER...CLARKE...CRENSHAW...WILCOX AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES.

PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT FOR DETAILS RELATED TO THE INLAND
AREAS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 230 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB...26.75 INCHES.
KATRINA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE...AT LEAST EQUAL TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NEED TO COMPLETE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM
CENTER...ALONG WITH HIGH...POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING...STORM TIDES
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST...WITH LESSER BUT STILL DANGEROUS SURGE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR DETAILS FOR THE LATEST EVACUATION
INFORMATION.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...LIKELY AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY FOUR
AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY FIVE. A SIGNIFICANT AND LIFE THREATENING
STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FELT WELL EAST OF THE STORM
CENTER ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTLINES.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK AND SPEED...A CATEGORY FIVE
LAND-FALLING HURRICANE WOULD BRING TIDE LEVELS AS HIGH AS 10 TO 15
FEET ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE
BAY...WITH A SURGE AROUND 20 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF MOBILE BAY...WHICH WOULD SEVERELY AFFECT DOWNTOWN
MOBILE WITH WATER SPILLING INTO THE DOWNTOWN AREA AND
EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS BROAD STREET. THIS WOULD BE THE HIGHEST
SURGE LEVEL EVER EXPERIENCED IN MOBILE. FOR COMPARISON...THE
HIGHEST SURGE LEVELS PREVIOUSLY EXPERIENCED IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA
WERE NEAR 9 FEET WITH HURRICANES FREDERIC AND GEORGES. IN
ADDITION...DAUPHIN ISLAND WOULD LIKELY BE INUNDATED...EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER GROUND ON THE EAST END.

A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN
COUNTY...COMPARABLE TO HURRICANE IVAN OF LAST YEAR. SIGNIFICANT
INUNDATION IS LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES OF GULF SHORES AND ORANGE
BEACH. PARTS OF THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED AS
WELL.

TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
8 FEET IN THE PENSACOLA AREA TO AROUND 5 FEET IN THE DESTIN AREA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES. EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...WITH THE REMAINING INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...RIP CURRENTS...
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN OCCURING SINCE LAST
EVENING. SWIMMERS SHOULD NOT ENTER THE WATER UNDER ANY
CIRCUMSTANCES.

...RAINFALL...
SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KATRINA WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THESE ONSET...THEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5
TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.

...NEW INFORMATION...
KATRINA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH 175
MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS OFFICE
BY 6 PM CDT.

$$

MEDLIN