WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
130 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
THE FRONT HAS JUST WENT THROUGH SRQ AT 02Z.  SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING             
NEAR THE FRONT AND LIFTING EASTWARD.  THE SHOWERS ARE BACKING OFF FOR           
NOW...BUT THERE ARE A FEW MORE IN THE GULF.  THE NEXT STRONG SHORT              
WAVE IS IN THE WESTERN GULF BASED ON WATER VAPOR PIX.  THERE MAY BE             
SOME SMALLER ONES BETWEEN HERE AND THERE.  I WILL LEAVE THE POPS WE             
HAVE IN THE FORECAST. PLUS THE REST OF FORECAST LOOKS FINE ALSO.                
THE RUC HAS THE FRONT MOVING NORTH STARTING ANY TIME NOW...DOESNT               
LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN.  THE MESOETA WAS COMPLETELY OFF THE                   
MARK...ALTHOUGH A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z RUN LOOKS BETTER.  MY                   
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE BOUNDARY MOVING VERY LITTLE THE NEXT FEW               
HOURS THEN DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTH...PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z MESOETA.           
MY ONLY BIG CONCERN IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY UNDERESTIMATING                
THE RAINFALL SO FAR.  ALTHOUGH WE CAN HANDLE A WHOLE LOT MORE BEFORE            
WE HAVE PROBLEMS.                                                               
.TBW...NONE.                                                                    
SOBIEN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
934 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY/TODAY...RATHER WELL DEFINED FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD                  
FASTER OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST...AND LAGGING SLIGHTLY OVER             
WESTERN SECTIONS.  BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED BY SATELLITE TO BE NEAR               
SEBASTIAN INLET.  EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS SHIELD EXTENDED BEHIND THE              
FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AS SHALLOW COOL AIR WAS BEING OVER RUN BY              
20-25 KNOT MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.  SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY               
EXISTED TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS.             
LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THEY REALLY DO NOT DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE              
OF THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR THAT WELL...EVEN THE MESO ETA.  RUC COMES            
CLOSEST SHOWING THE BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH INDIAN RIVER COUNTY               
AND INTO ST LUCIE.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD             
HAVE ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SAG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS SHOULD                
LOCK IN LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS SO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S               
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.  WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE FAR                    
SOUTH...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S.                                         
LATEST RADAR SHOWING THAT HIGH COVERAGE OF RAIN IS OVER THE NORTH               
AND THINK THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE.  MIGHT ADJUST POPS TO SHOW             
MORE OF A NORTH/SOUTH GRADIENT.                                                 
MARINE...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING ABOUT 10 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER              
THE NORTH LEG.  THINK THAT NORTHERN PARTS ARE PROBABLY CLOSER TO 15             
KNOTS BASED ON GRADIENT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...SO PLAN TO BUMP UP              
WINDS SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH.                                                    
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...LASCODY                                                         
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BRAGAW                                                       
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1049 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                     
.UPDATED...NO MAJOR CHANGES...BUT TWO MINOR ONES. FIRST...GOOD                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING LOCATIONS UP NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO (40B -6, PQI -2).     
WITH CONTINUED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...FEEL THE VALLEYS WILL BE         
AROUND -15 TONIGHT. THE OTHER MINOR CHANGE IS TO ADD PATCHY FOG DOWNEAST.       
THIS WAS A DIFFICULT DECISION...BUT NOTED THAT BANGOR HAD FOG UNDER SIMILAR     
CONDITIONS LAST NIGHT...BAR HARBOR IS WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF IT/S DEW POINT...     
AND THERE IS SOME FOG IN EASTERN MASS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE RUC CAPTURES       
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...AND SPREADS IT INTO DOWNEAST MAINE LATE        
TONIGHT.                                                                        
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HIGH      
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE     
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY AND THEN TRACK     
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN           
MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY.                                                      
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH       
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.                                                           
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS      
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK TOWARD THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY         
NIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING IN LINE REGARDING A SOLUTION HOWEVER STILL      
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. ETA TRACKS THE        
LOW TO NEAR EASTPORT BY 00Z/MON WITH THE CANADIAN GLOBAL TRACKING THE           
LOW THROUGH THE BAY OF FUNDY. GFS TAKES THE LOW A BIT FURTHER INLAND            
WITH A TRACK ACROSS EASTERN MAINE. AGAIN WITH THE EXACT TRACK STILL IN          
QUESTION AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN          
AREAS WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT PRESENT TIME AND WILL REFRESH THE         
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL.                           
IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS AS IF VERY COLD AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION          
BEHIND THIS STORM FOR MONDAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES CRASH DURING THE DAY.          
THEN EXPECT DRIER AND COLDER AIR FOR LATER MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO           
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY MID WEEK         
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE REGION.                                  
COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS      
REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AND     
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND MONDAY         
NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.                                                
.CAR...NONE.                                                                    
APFFEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1010 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                     
...FORECAST QUANDARIES THIS EVENING ARE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS...            
CURRENTLY HAVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN             
PLAINS NEAR THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK               
JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC SATURDAY NIGHT.             
BEHIND THIS LOW...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST               
USHERING COLD ARCTIC AIR BACK TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                         
MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE                 
UPPER GREAT LAKES. PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING WILL SUFFICE ACROSS THE                
SOUTHERN CWA...HOWEVER NORTHERN PORTIONS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
SKIES. DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WEST            
HALF...TO THE LOWER 20S EAST HALF. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMED UP            
ENOUGH TO INITIATE A LAKE BREEZE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ADDED LOW              
LEVEL MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW ACTUALLY DEVELOPED A LAYER OF STRATO-CU            
OVER THE STATION THIS EVENING.                                                  
RUC SHOWS A GRADUAL SHIFT OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH BY                      
DAYBREAK...AND WITH CURRENT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADD               
PATCHY FOG TO FORECAST MAINLY INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. ALREADY            
HAVE SEEN METARS FROM KSAW...KISQ...AND KERY DROP TO 3SM TO 5SM                 
VISIBILITY. EVEN AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT KISQ. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY                
SKIES EXPECTING LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH TO RANGE FROM AROUND 10                   
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO INLAND...TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ALONG THE LAKE                 
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF             
CWA LOOK REASONABLE...EVEN WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD               
COVER. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK                      
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
LAROSA                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
625 AM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
PER SATELLITE TRENDS...UPDATED GRIDS TO PUSH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES                
INTO N/W COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER MI THIS MORNING. PER UPSTREAM               
TRENDS AND LATEST RUC40/MESOETA FORECASTS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO                    
GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR MORE               
SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE STRAITS.                                     
ALSO...REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN UP.                    
NO OTHER CHANGES.                                                               
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
1015 AM FRI FEB 28 2003                                                         
UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS. DROP ALL MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.            
WENT WITH MORE OPTIMISTIC PARTLY SUNNY. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A                 
BIT...COOL WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                       
MARINE...DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK            
HARBOR AS WINDS HAVE LOWER TO UNDER 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...HAD TO KEEP             
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UP FOR ROUGH SEAS ON OCEAN. HAVE 8 FEET AT BOTH            
44025 AND 44017 WITH 8 SECOND PERIOD...FROM SOUTHEAST. SEAS SHOULD              
SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING TO BELOW CRITERIA.                                      
*******PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 7:30 AM*******************                      
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS                 
NYC/LI. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE                
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE HINDERING                
SNOW FROM FALLING OVER FORECAST AREA. THUS...FLURRIES ALL ZONES                 
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.                                                      
********PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 3:30 AM******************                      
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND THIS                 
SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEPENING            
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS QUICKLY OFF TO THE               
NORTHEAST. WHILE RADAR SHOWS RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NJ                      
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...OBS STILL ONLY             
SHOW MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. QUITE                  
FRANKLY...EVEN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE NOTHING MORE               
THAN FLURRIES.                                                                  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHILE               
QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
ZONES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL            
GO WITH LIKELY POPS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND DROP               
OFF TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR              
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES. MAY JUST GO WITH FLURRIES FOR NORTHERN              
ZONES THIS MORNING AND NOT MENTION LIGHT SNOW.                                  
CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...TAKES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OFF             
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVERNIGHT             
AHEAD OF NEXT PAC SYSTEM MOVING INTO MS VLY ON SAT.  SFC HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA IN TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT                  
...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS               
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT AFT AND EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES                    
OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH                
LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. A SNOW TO              
RAIN TRANSITION LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE A MIX MAY NEED             
TO BE HELD ON TO IN THE INTERIOR. GFS THE WARMER OF THE SOLUTIONS AS            
IT GENERATES A STRONG SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY THAT WORKS UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE               
ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUPPORTS A COLDER SCENARIO WITH A WEAKER              
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. PREFER THE LATTER AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW                
SUGGESTS AN OUTCOME SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY.                                   
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET TAKES OVER AT THE START OF THE WEEK            
AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES                
WILL ONCE AGAIN AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                     
ON THE MARINE...WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY              
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY             
LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN. STAY BELOW WAVEWATCH SAT AND            
SUN FOR SEAS AS CONTRIBUTION FROM EASTERLY SWELL SEEMS OVERDONE.                
.AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...PCPN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME                   
WORKING NORTH. CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT THIS TIME WITH THE PCPN UPSTREAM            
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY IS VIRGA. BASED ON RUC AND                        
TRENDS...THINKING NOW IS THAT THE PREVAILING WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE            
DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL DO AN AMENDMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z TO              
UP THE IFR FORECAST IF TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS.                        
******************************************************************              
.OKX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE                             
         OCEAN...ANZ355-353-350                                                 
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY                                               
730 AM FRI FEB 28 2003                                                          
UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS                 
NYC/LI. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE                
LOW-LEVEL RIGING AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SEEMS TO BE HINDERIMG SNOW            
FROM FALLING OVER FORECAST AREA. THUS...FLURRIES ALL ZONES THROUGH              
LATE THIS MORNING.                                                              
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISUED AT 330 AM...                                       
FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF LIGHT SNOW AND THIS                 
SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS DEEPENING            
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TRACKS QUICKLY OFF TO THE               
NORTHEAST. WHILE RADAR SHOWS RETURNS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NJ                      
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND...OBS STILL ONLY             
SHOW MID LEVEL CEILINGS AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. QUITE                  
FRANKLY...EVEN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE NOTHING MORE               
THAN FLURRIES.                                                                  
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHILE               
QPF AMOUNTS SUPPORT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN            
ZONES. CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WILL            
GO WITH LIKELY POPS FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND DROP               
OFF TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR              
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT ZONES. MAY JUST GO WITH FLURRIES FOR NORTHERN              
ZONES THIS MORNING AND NOT MENTION LIGHT SNOW.                                  
CONFLUENT...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...TAKES MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF OFF             
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 18Z. SHORT WAVE RIDGING SETS IN OVERNIGHT             
AHEAD OF NEXT PAC SYSTEM MOVING INTO MS VLY ON SAT.  SFC HIGH                   
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS AREA IN TANDEM WITH UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT                  
...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS               
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SAT AFT AND EVE AS THE HIGH MOVES                    
OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH                
LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. A SNOW TO              
RAIN TRANSITION LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST...WHILE A MIX MAY NEED             
TO BE HELD ON TO IN THE INTERIOR. GFS THE WARMER OF THE SOLUTIONS AS            
IT GENERATES A STRONG SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL                   
BOUNDARY THAT WORKS UP THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE               
ETA...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUPPORTS A COLDER SCENARIO WITH A WEAKER              
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. PREFER THE LATTER AS THE CONFLUENT FLOW                
SUGGESTS AN OUTCOME SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY.                                   
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET TAKES OVER AT THE START OF THE WEEK            
AS ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES                
WILL ONCE AGAIN AVERAGE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.                     
ON THE MARINE...WILL HOLD ON TO A SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY              
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY             
LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN. STAY BELOW WAVEWATCH SAT AND            
SUN FOR SEAS AS CONTRIBUTION FROM EASTERLY SWELL SEEMS OVERDONE.                
.AVIATION...AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...PCPN HAVING A VERY HARD TIME                   
WORKING NORTH. CIGS CONTINUE VFR AT THIS TIME WITH THE PCPN UPSTREAM            
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY IS VIRGA. BASED ON RUC AND                        
TRENDS...THINKING NOW IS THAT THE PREVAILING WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE            
DAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WILL DO AN AMENDMENT BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z TO              
UP THE IFR FORECAST IF TRENDS AND NEW GUIDANCE SUPPORTS.                        
.OKX...                                                                         
CT...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SCA FOR ALL WATERS...ANZ355-353-350-330-335-338.                       
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC/MARINE...DW                                                              
AVIATION...JT                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
830 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
MOST OF THE ILM CWA HAS CLEARED EARLY THIS EVENING...NICELY EVIDENT             
IN THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE EXCEPTION IS IN NEW HANOVER               
AND PENDER COUNTIES...WHERE STRATUS DECK NEVER REALLY BROKE AND HAS             
STARTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO.             
FLO ALREADY DOWN TO 2SM.                                                        
EXPECT TO SEE THE LOW CLOUDS COME BACK IN OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL BE A            
MATTER OF TIMING.  AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR...ESP SC                      
ZONES...COULD EASILY FOG IN BEFORE LOW CLOUDS RETURN.  WILL ADD                 
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNITE...HITTING HARDER IN SC.  THIS WILL               
TAKE SOME RESTRUCTURING OF THE ZONE GROUPINGS.                                  
CURRENT MIN TEMPS AROUND 40 MAY BE A CATEGORY TOO COOL ALONG THE                
COAST...BUT NOT ABOUT TO RAISE MINS WHILE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER               
MOST OF THE AREA.                                                               
MARINE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST ALLOWING WIND DIR TO            
EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E. RUC/ETA AND EVEN THE GFS DEPICT A              
WEAK COASTAL TROF FORMING OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME NOT                  
SEEING THIS IN THE MARINE OBS UNTIL YOU LOOK S ALONG THE E FL COAST.            
EVEN IF THE TROF BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS FAR N...WOULD STILL SEE            
THE FLOW VEER TO A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT THOUGH IT MAY TAKE A                
LITTLE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FCST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 15            
KTS...A LITTLE LESS NEAR THE COAST. SINCE THE FLOW WILL BECOME ELY              
I/LL LEAVE ALL OF THE MARINE ZONES IN ONE GROUP. SIGNIFICANT SEAS               
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 FT AT FRYING PAN...THE BULK OF THIS WAVE ENERGY             
IS ATTRIBUTED TO A 9-10 SEC SWELL. ONLY MINOR CHANGES EXPECTED W/               
THE NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.                                                          
.ILM...                                                                         
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
RAS/SRP                                                                         
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (343 PM EST):                                               
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER COASTAL             
SC AND PORTIONS OF SE NC. EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE                   
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLEAR             
SKIES EARLY TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL            
FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH PRES OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC               
WILL RIDGE DOWN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT ERLY                 
FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE AREA WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PATCHY              
FOG MAY BE A FACTOR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW SOON THE CLOUDS SPREAD             
BACK IN. WILL FORECAST LOWS TO FALL TO NEAR CURRENT DEWPOINT                    
READINGS WHICH ARE NEAR 40.                                                     
THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFTS NWRD OVER THE REGION DURING SAT                      
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE SFC LOW            
WILL TRACK...BUT THIS HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST.                
BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE                     
AFTERNOON. SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE (SREF) DATA AS WELL AS ETA/GFS MOS              
DATA INDICATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS                 
COASTAL SC WHERE WE/LL FORECAST LIKELY POPS...WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS             
ELSEWHERE. BY SAT NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT IS AT ITS BEST AND WILL                 
FORECAST LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE E                   
THROUGH THE AREA SUN MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO ANY PRECIPITATION             
BY AFTERNOON AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES            
OF THE WEEK EXPECTED ON SUN AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE               
FRONT.                                                                          
ELONGATED SHORT WAVE ALONG H5 AXIS LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA MON. ONLY            
EXPECT SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FEATURE AND WILL GO WITH A DRY                
FORECAST. WINDS SHIFT NW BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FILTERING COOLER AIR            
INTO THE REGION.                                                                
12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE 00Z RUN WITH THE NEXT               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AGREE WITH HPC/S TIMING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING               
OFFSHORE THU MORNING.                                                           
MARINE: PG ACROSS THE WATERS HAS RELAXED AS ANTICIPATED AND CURRENT             
BUOY REPORTS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE             
SIMILAR DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLC                  
REGION OVERNIGHT AND FLOW VEERS TO E/SE SAT. WEAK COASTAL                       
TROUGH..WARM FRONT DEPICTED BY MODELS LIFTING N OF REGION BY SAT                
EVENING SUPPORTING S/SW FETCH THROUGH MUCH OF SUN. MODELS DIFFER                
HERE IN DETAILS WITH GFS DEPICTING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER GA               
AND MOVING IT NE VCNTY CAPE FEAR SUN MORNING. ETA TENDS TO KEEP LOW             
NORTH OF REGION AND BOTH MODELS INTENSIFY SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT GETS            
NORTH AND EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. FORECAST WILL REFLECT                     
COMPROMISE BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD WEAKER ETA SOLUTION. BASED ON THIS              
SCENARIO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS LATE SUN BEHIND FRONT BUT            
LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED EVENT.                                                  
PUBLIC: JAQ                                                                     
MARINE: RWA                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
805 PM EST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF LOW LVL MSTR GENERALLY BELOW H850.            
WITH LIGHT NRLY FLOW WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LVL                  
DRYING OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC AND MESOETA SUPPORT HOLDING LOW CLOUDS             
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF             
FOG THAT FORMS SO HAVE REDUCED FORECAST FOG FROM AREA OF DENSE TO               
JUST PATCHY ALL AREAS. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR FORECAST LOWS             
AND FEEL TEMPS WILL LIKELY REACH NEAR THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. WILL              
THEREFORE LEAVE TEMPS AS FORECAST FOR NOW.                                      
CWF: WINDS WILL CONT TO DECREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. WILL LOWER             
WAVES ON SOUNDS TO 1 FOOT OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED. GOOD             
NE SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS IN SCA RANGE N OF OCRACOKE FOR A WHILE                  
LONGER.                                                                         
.MHX...SCA N OF OCRACOKE INLET.                                                 
MLF/RF                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
949 AM CST FRI FEB 29 2003                                                      
SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS HAS LED TO              
THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SFC WARM FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER              
THIS MORNING.  SFC TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED AOA 32F OVR FAR SRN               
OK..WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALONG AND S OF THE I40                 
CORRIDOR.  ETA/MESOETA ARE NOT CATCHING MID LEVEL SATURATION IN                 
ASSOCIATION WITH BRIEF SHOT OF UVV CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL OK             
PER SAT IMAGERY. THE RUC HAS DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB RESOLVING THIS              
IMPULSE IN BOTH VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES               
PER BUFR SOUNDING DATA.  5-8 KFT LAYER OF DRY AIR IN BETWEEN MID                
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONT TO MAKE PRECIP TYPE            
FORECAST VERY COMPLICATED THRU THE AFTERNOON.  PHONE CALLS TO AREAS             
UNDERNEATH RADAR ECHOES REVEAL JUST ABOUT EVERY TYPE OF PRECIP IS               
CURRENTLY FALLING AT ONE PLACE OR ANOTHER..BUT ALL PRECIP IS VERY               
LIGHT.  SNOW AND SOME SLEET..AS SHUD BE EXPECTED..IS CONFINED TO                
AREAS OF HIGHEST RADAR REFLECTIVITIES AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS WHERE              
ICE HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ENVIRONMENT FROM MID LEVELS.                     
ELSEWHERE..VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS FALLING..PER 8 BIT               
RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTLX/KFDR.  EXPECT MIXTURE OF PRECIP              
TO CONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS UVV FIELD SPREADS NEWD INTO                      
CENT/NCENT OK.  HOWEVER..COMBINATION OF LIGHT PRECIP..SHORT DURATION            
AND SFC TEMPS CLIMBING TO AOA FREEZING BY MIDDAY IN MOST AREAS SHUD             
PREVENT ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS AND WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES AT              
THIS TIME.  EXPECT DRIZZLE TO CONT OVER WRN ZONES THRU MUCH OF THE              
AFTERNOON AS SHALLOW LOW LEVEL UPWARD MOTION CONTS WITHIN LOW LEVEL             
STRATUS DECK BENEATH DEVELOPING MID LEVEL DRY SLOT.  UPDATES OUT                
WITHIN THE HOUR.                                                                
 MILLER                                                                         
**************************                                                      
413 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ACRS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE            
FA. HOWEVER AS SRN ROCKIES S/W APPROACHES CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO                
FILL IN.  BEST LIFT WITH INIT WAVE APRS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE               
FATHIS MORNING. HOWEVER GFS AND ETA SHOW A SECOND AREA OF UVV DVLPG             
FRTHR SOUTH THAT APRS TO BE RELATED TO INCREASING WAA. THUS WILL                
CONT WITH POPS FOR THE WHOLE AREA. PRECIP TYPE WILL AGAIN BE A                  
CHALLENGE. APRS THAT SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT TYPE IN THE NORTH             
WITH R/ZR FRTHR SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. SECOND S/W             
EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THREAT OF LIGHT                 
PRECIP. THIS WAVE EXITS THE AREA EARLY SAT WITH A BREAK IN THE                  
ACTION UNTIL NEXT SYS APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING            
SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SUNDAY AS NRN BRANCH S/W SWINGS THROUGH THE                 
CNTRL PLAINS. WILL KEEP POPS INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES                   
THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE TMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS            
SLY LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS.                                                       
FCSTID =    2                                                                   
OKC   35  31  41  30 /  40  40  10  10                                          
HBR   37  31  43  28 /  40  30  10  20                                          
SPS   43  35  47  33 /  30  30  10  20                                          
GAG   32  23  38  22 /  60  30  10  20                                          
PNC   33  27  37  25 /  50  40  10  10                                          
DUA   44  36  46  34 /  30  40  20  10                                          
.OUN...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1020 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                     
KABR CWA IN A WAITING MODE AS SFC HIGH SLOWLY DROPS TO SE AND WAA               
KICKS IN LATER TODAY ACROSS THE WEST. AREA OF MID/HI CLOUDS IN NODAK            
SHOULD REMAIN THERE...AND MOVT PER VISUAL SAT PIX INDICATE THAT                 
MOVEMENT IS INTO MN AND NOT INTO NRN SODAK. FURTHER SW TOWARD                   
KPIR...MID CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO BE SCATTERING OUT. BELIEVE THAT                
MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN/EVN WHEN            
WAA GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...HAVE             
BUMPED UP HIGHS A DEGREE OR THREE. HAVEN'T GONE AS WARM AS LATEST               
RUC FOR TEMPS. LOOKING AT 12Z RUC KABR SOUNDING AND 12Z M-ETA                   
SOUNDING VS REAL 12Z KABR SOUNDING...M-ETA INITIALIZED SFC TEMPS WAY            
TOO COLD...WITH RUC REAL CLOSE.                                                 
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
829 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
THE 00Z MESOETA AND RUC INDICATE LOW CLOUDS MOVING BACK OVER MUCH OF            
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THEREFORE WILL UPDATE TO ADD MENTION OF LOW                 
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST HALF) FOR ALL                 
ZONES. ALSO BOTH SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS                
DROPPING DOWN TO 1 TO 2 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.               
THEREFORE WITH BORDER LINE NUMBERS...WILL MENTION SOME FOG OR LIGHT             
DRIZZLE...BEST EAST (NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS FRIDAY MORNING). WILL                 
LEAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH CLOUDS AND              
FOG MOVING BACK IN.                                                             
24                                                                              
BELOW IS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.                                                  
--------------------------------------------------------------                  
.CURRENT...                                                                     
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH INTO              
WESTERN TEXAS. VAD PROFILE AT SJT REFLECTING SLACKENING OF 850 MB               
WINDS AS LLJ HAS MOVED TO THE EAST. WITHOUT THE MIXING EXPERIENCED              
YESTERDAY STRATUS DECK WAS SLOWER ERODING TODAY WITH CLOUDS STILL               
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY. TEMPS ALSO EDGING UP AT A              
SLOWER PACE THAN YESTERDAY.                                                     
WILL SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOLLOWED               
BY  CLEARING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPS SHOULD TOP TODAYS HIGHS             
IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT               
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TOMORROW WITH A COOLDOWN AND               
PLENTY OF CLOUDCOVER FOR SUNDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN LOW              
BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL POPS IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY             
NIGHT. CLEARING ON MONDAY AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD FOR THE              
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED BY DRY CONDITIONS.            
CCF PRELIMS...                                                                  
ABI 041/065/035/051 0001                                                        
SJT 040/071/038/058 0001                                                        
JCT 039/071/037/063 0001                                                        
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
515 AM CST FRI FEB 28 2003                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
NOT A CLEAR CUT CIG FCST FOR N TX TRACON SITES BEING ON SW EDGE OF              
DECAYING...STUBBORN ARCTIC DOME OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX. CIGS GENERALLY             
008-015 (IFR/MVFR) AND SHOULD SEE THIS CONT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED                
4-5SM BR 15Z-18Z AS ONLY WEAK MIXING SHOULD OCCUR PER WEAK BL-850 MB            
FLOW SHOWN NOTED ON PROFILERS. SFC WINDS TO STAY E/SE 5-10 KTS AS               
SURFACE TROUGH OVER W TX STAYS PUT. META SOUNDINGS/FWC GUIDANCES TRY            
TO SCATTER THINGS OUT FOR A BIT THIS AFTN (21Z-00Z TIME FRAME)...               
WHILE RUC SOUNDINGS/MAV AND LAMP GUIDANCES JUST SHOW CIGS RISING                
WELL INTO VFR RANGE. I'LL FOLLOW THE LATTER DUE TO CONTINUED WEAK               
FLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION AND LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN DEEP MIXING. AFTER            
03Z...ITS BACK TO BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN AFTER DECOUPLING                 
OCCURS WITH PATCHY 3-5SM VSBYS AFTER 06Z ONCE AGAIN.                            
05/                                                                             
.EARLY MORNING PUBLIC DISCUSSION 415 AM CST...                                  
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NORTH...UPPER 30S                 
SOUTH. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WEST AND CENTRAL...ABI-BWD STARTING             
TO SOCK IN...BUT THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY. SOUTH WINDS              
START IN EARNEST AND WARM UP SHOULD FINALLY PICK UP STEAM.                      
NONETHELESS...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO                
NEXT WEEK. HEY...IT'S STILL WINTER.                                             
MODEL TRENDS ON NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUE AS SHORTWAVE FRI-SAT PROGGED A             
BIT FURTHER NORTH. MOISTURE SLOW TO RETURN...AND BEST FORCING EVEN              
FURTHER NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. REMOVED SCANT POPS BECAUSE THE WHOLE            
THING IS JUST REMARKABLY UNIMPRESSIVE. FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY              
AND OVERRUNNING -RA/SHRA POSSIBLE LATE SUN INTO MONDAY...AIDED BY               
LAGGING SHORTWAVE. 850MB FRONT STILL A BIT TOO FAST TO ALLOW FOR                
MUCH MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION. WILL BEAR WATCHING...BUT                 
20-30 POPS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.                                              
.EXTENDED...LOW POPS FOR MONDAY AS AS MODELS (WITH VARYING STRENGTH)            
TAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS TX AND GENERATE LIGHT QPF. NOT MUCH QPF            
EXPECTED AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY MON NIGHT. DECENT WARM UP             
TUESDAY WITH SWLY FLOW/WAA/DOWNSLOPING CRANKING UP AHEAD OF NEXT                
COLD FRONT ARRIVING WED MORNING. GFS MOS LOOKS ERRONEOUSLY WAY TOO              
WARM WED/THURS PER ECMWF/CANADIAN TRENDS...WHICH LOOK TO HANDLE THIS            
AIRMASS BETTER WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WILL GO              
60S UNDER MEX MOS 70S FOR HIGHS. LOW POPS PUT IN FOR WED/THU WITH               
FRONT NEARBY AND SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS IS WITH             
MINIMAL CONFIDENCE.                                                             
FCSTID =   25/05                                                                
DFW   51  41  57  38 /   0   0   0   0                                          
ACT   57  44  61  41 /   0   0   0   0                                          
PRX   49  40  53  38 /   0   0   0   0                                          
DTO   49  40  53  38 /   0   0   0   0                                          
TKI   49  40  53  38 /   0   0   0   0                                          
DAL   51  41  58  39 /   0   0   0   0                                          
TRL   52  42  58  40 /   0   0   0   0                                          
CRS   52  43  59  41 /   0   0   0   0                                          
TPL   57  44  62  42 /   0   0   0   0                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                       
MAIN FCST CONCERNS CENTER ON EFFECTS OF ARCTIC SURGE WITH SNOW                  
TIMING/AMOUNT AND TEMP/WIND CHILLS.                                             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED MAINLY ZONAL NRN STREAM                   
MID/UPR LVL FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES BENEATH POLAR VORTEX OVER                
HUDSON BAY. STRONG UPSTREAM SHRTWV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL                         
SASK/MANITOBA WAS PROPELLING SFC ARCTIC FRONT...LOCATED OVER SRN                
SASK/MANITOBA...TOWARD THE SE. VERY COLD AIR LURKED BEHIND THE FRONT            
WITH 08Z TEMPS AS LOW AS -45F OVER NRN SASK. SHRTWV AND FRONT HAVE              
SUPPORTED BAND OF SN WITH VSBYS AOB 1SM AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT               
ALONG WITH WINDS OF 20-30 KT. SOME 2-5SM -SN WAS ALSO OBSERVED AHEAD            
OF THE FRONT. AREA OF MID CLOUDS OVER UPR MI...PER IR LOOP...WAS                
SUPPORTED BY 285K ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH WAA PATTERN BTWN HI PRES OVER            
THE NE CONUS AND ARCTIC FRONT AND TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. CLOUD               
COVER HAS CUTOFF RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO ALLOW LCLY DENSE FOG             
TO DIMINISH. BACK EDGE OF MID CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING THROUGH FAR WRN             
UPR MI AND SHOULD GRADUALLY EXIT THE CWA BY MID MORNING.                        
MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE ETA TRENDING SLOWER                  
TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS. THE 06Z ETA HAS SLOWED MOVEMENT                 
FURTHER WITH FRONT JUST OFFSHORE FROM WRN UPR MI AT 00Z/SUN. HAVE               
GENERALLY SIDED WITH GFS TIMING.                                                
TODAY...WHILE MID CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN AS FRONT APPROACHES...PERIOD            
OF AT LEAST PTSUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH SW WINDS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS                 
TOWARD WARMER NGM GUIDANCE VALUES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S F. EVEN            
THROUGH BULK OF PCPN SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL...CHANCE POPS LEFT FOR              
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PRECEDING THE FRONT...PER UPSTREAM             
TRENDS.                                                                         
TONIGHT INTO SUN...WITH MDL QPF CONSISTENCY AND UPSTREAM                        
TRENDS...HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO CATEGORICAL TONIGHT. PCPN WILL BE                 
SUPPORTED BY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AIDED BY UPR LVL DIV                
WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF 90+ KT JET NEAR JAMES BAY. MDLS QPF RANGING              
FROM ABOUT 0.06-0.12 INCH SUGGESTS AT LEAST 1-2 INCH SYNOPTIC                   
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SNOW/WATER RATIO NEAR 20/1. EVEN THOUGH LAKE              
IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED...LIMITED OPEN AREAS FROM MARQUETTE-MUNISING              
TO THE KEWEENAW AND OVER THE WRN LAKE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FUEL FOR               
SOME LIMITED LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING NARROW WINDOW BEFORE DEEP                  
MOISTURE DEPARTS. ETA BUFKIT CONTINUES TO DEPICT RAPID DEPARTURE OF             
MOISTURE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WITH DNVA/QVECTOR DIV BEHIND             
THE SHRTWV. SO...HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY BOOSTED ACCUMULATIONS INTO 1-3              
RANGE NEAR MQT AND IWD WHERE NNW WIND WILL HAVE THE BEST TRAJECTORY             
OVER SOME OPEN WATER. WHILE ICE ON THE LAKE MAY HAVE LIMITED IMPACT             
ON MODIFYING SEVERE ARCTIC COLD...ICE COVER IS NOT SOLID WITH SOME              
OPEN AREAS AND OTHER AREAS THAT ARE MAINLY SLUSH. SO...ETA COOLING              
SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE WITH 2M TEMPS DOWN TO -15 TO -20F OVER THE LAKE            
BY 12Z/SUN. WILL STAY MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS TOWARD THE -3 TO             
-8 RANGE OVER THE N AS IN THE GOING FCST. EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY               
GUSTY WINDS TO 30-40 MPH FOLLOWING FROPA WITH VERY STRONG                       
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT OF 5-7 MB/3 HR LIKELY...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS AND            
ETA FCST. COLD COMBINED WITH WINDS TO 25 MPH LATE MAY PUSH WIND                 
CHILLS TO AROUND -30F...WITH WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA LIKELY FOR                
TONIGHT INTO SUN. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT -10 F WITH 20 MPH               
WINDS THAT WOULD PUSH VALUES TO THE -35 WARNING THRESHOLD. VERY COLD            
DRY AIR WITH H8 TEMPS FALLING TO -30C WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF                    
INSTABILITY BUT WITH VERY LIMITED FETCH AND VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR                
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PRFL...ACCUMULATIONS SUN WITH SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES               
SHOULD AMOUNT TO LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.             
SUN NIGHT...RDG AXIS MOVES INTO UPR MI PROVIDING FAVORABLE                      
CONDITIONS FOR A VERY COLD CONDITIONS. WAA AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF              
THE NEXT SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH              
SO THAT TEMPS WILL PLUNGE TOWARD RECORD LOWS CNTRL...WITH SOME                  
READINGS FROM -12 NEAR THE LAKE TO NEAR -30 F INLAND. A FEW MORE                
CLOUDS LATE WILL KEEP WRN CWA FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.                        
MON...WENT WITH GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN CONSENSUS TIMING AND SLIGHTLY                
BOOSTED POPS ACRS UPR MI AS WAA/ISENTROPIC AHEAD OF SFC LOW TRACKING            
TOWARD UPR MI BRINGS NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW INTO UPR MI.                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
215 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS TODAY & EARLY                
TONIGHT.                                                                        
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HELD IN THE MID 30S THROUGH 1 AM WITH ONLY               
VICHY REPORTING 31 DEGREES. ONCE AGAIN FOG PREVAILED OVER THE REGION            
WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.            
NEXT SHORT WAVE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH                
THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY ONE TO TWO INCHES OF             
SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND             
EARLY EVENING.                                                                  
TEMPERATURE PROFILER ON THE LATEST RUC IS INDICATING +1.4C                      
(1000-900H). ABOVE THIS LAYER (900-800H) TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 1             
TO 2 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY THE SAME              
DUE TO THE SATURATED LAYERS...THEREFORE BELIEVE NORTH OF I-44 WITH              
HAVE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW ONCE AGAIN WITH RAIN OR SNOW ALONG             
I-44 AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.                                             
AS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...DO NOT BELIEVE TOTALS WILL RUN HIGH             
DUE TO TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND THE               
HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE MELTING             
ON IMPACT OR ONLY ACCUMULATING ON GRASSY SURFACES DURING THE DAY.               
SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE                                  
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OF            
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE               
AREA.                                                                           
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END BY 9 PM...ANY LEFT OVER                 
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW.             
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH FINALLY DRYS            
OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES BY             
MIDDAY...LEFT OVER MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND WEAK LIFT DUE TO               
THE OZARK PLATEAU MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR            
AREAS NORTH OF I-44 AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD.                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED AS A WEAK SYSTEM PROVIDES A CHANCE              
OF RAIN OR SNOW ON TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES              
NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK MOVES NORTHWARD.                              
.SGF...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
JLT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
847 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                       
.PUBLIC...BUSY MORNING. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH            
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WEDGING GOING            
ON. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.            
WILL GO WITH DRIZZLE...FOG...AND CHILLY TEMPS IN NORTH...AND SHOWERS            
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE GA. UPDATE WILL LOWER TEMPS IN                      
NORTH...PER RUC.                                                                
.AVIATION...WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO 200 TO 400 FEET             
AND 1 TO 2 MILES ACROSS FTY...ATL...AHN AREA...UNTIL BETWEEN 16 TO              
18Z. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL ONLY IMPROVE SLOWLY AS RAIN MAY MIX               
THINGS OUT A LITTLE.                                                            
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
NOEL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1000 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                      
BAND OF -RA OR DZ TRANSLATING ACROSS SRN IND ATTM, ALIGNED WITH                 
500MB FLOW PTTN. POOL OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY             
AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN IL FOCUSING LIFT OVER SRN IND.              
SAID PCPN TO MOVE NEWD AND MORE OR LESS OUT OF LMK FA BY EARLY OR               
MID AFTERNOON. RECENT ACARS RAOBS OUT OF KSDF SHOW VERY STRONG                  
INVERSION ~850MB. 12Z RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS INVERSION WILL                
HOLD THROUGH TODAY, THEREFORE WILL GO WITH OVC SKIES ALL ZONES IN               
THE 1ST PERIOD.                                                                 
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
XXV                                                                             
///PREV AFD BELOW///                                                            
SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY            
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES  HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S                
ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS              
SOUTHERN INDIANA JUST NORTH OF FA. PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA BUT                 
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR HIGHER.                                        
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN BUT DIFFER SOME IN HOW FAST             
THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN A               
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS FOR TEMPS AND POPS AND A BLEND FOR TIMING            
OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER.                                                        
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...THIS MORNING...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ANY              
PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCES OF            
LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN WITH COLD FRONT STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO FA                
SUNDAY.                                                                         
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF FA EARLY THIS                
MORNING IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS              
MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF                    
FORECAST AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST                    
LOCATIONS DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION.                                           
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WILL INTO             
4OS TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT PUSHING IN TONIGHT.                                    
GFS AND ETA BOTH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO FA TONIGHT...ALONG AND                
AHEAD OF FRONT. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE EVENING AND                  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE              
RAIN. FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW                  
BEFORE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLURRIES              
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS            
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA DURING THE DAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH                        
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 30S.                                        
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH             
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY. AS CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARD                     
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN             
HALF.                                                                           
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER             
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK.                                                  
SCHOLZ                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1040 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                      
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS                    
NORTHWEST MN/SOUTHERN ND...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING                  
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD/NE.  SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE                 
ARCTIC FRONT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AC DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN            
WI/CENTRAL LOWER MI...AS WELL AS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MN/                 
NORTHWEST WI/FAR WESTERN UPPER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  AREA OF FOG/ST             
ALSO CENTERED OVER LUCE/WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC                   
COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER.  APX/GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING                  
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE 750MB...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND                      
ASSOCIATED THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/IL/IN...WITH A COUPLE OF               
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MO/IA.            
CLOUDS WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS               
THE DAY WEARS ON.  ALTHOUGH MAIN AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH               
JUST SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER...CONTINUED MID              
LEVEL WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER DEPICTED ON AREA SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW            
AC TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON PER SATELLITE                 
TRENDS AND 12Z RUC/ETA MOISTURE FIELDS.  ALSO EXPECT AC TO THE WEST             
TO ALSO SPREAD IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER QG                
FORCING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SPREADS IN.  LOOKS LIKE LOWER                 
LAYERS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS              
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL LEAVE IN AROUND SAGINAW BAY AREA.              
GOING TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE            
MOST AREAS WILL GET ENOUGH SUN TO MIX CLOSE TO 850MB...WITH THE                 
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING            
IN MOST OF THE MORNING.                                                         
UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1610Z.                                         
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
JPB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1019 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES AND LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL 88D RETURNS              
AND SAT PICS COMBINED WITH LATEST RUN OF THE RUC MODEL AND MORNING              
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS RAISING TEMPS CWA WIDE BY 2 TO 6 DEGREES DUE TO              
MECHANICAL AND DIRECT INSOLATION INDUCED MIXING OF BL THIS MORNING.             
SURFACE TEMPS NORTH OF CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT ALREADY ON THE DECREASE            
AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY              
TRAVERSING CWA AND SUSPECT IT WILL BE ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA BY                
18Z. TWEAKED TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS/SKY/RH/WCHLLS AND SFC WX THROUGH 00Z             
SUNDAY. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM TO BE LOOKED OVER SHORTLY. CURRENT              
20 TO 30 MPH WINDY WORDING LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FOR NOW.                   
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM NW TO               
SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ARCTIC              
AIR MOVES IN/RETREATS AND THEN BACK IN AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A            
WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MRNG            
MOVING EAST WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT JUST              
ACROSS THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER AT 09Z. HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE ABR            
CWA SHOULD OCCUR BY NOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS                
WILL FALL ACROSS THE N PART OF CWA THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT AS                
NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SFC PRES RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB               
WERE IN S CANADA EARLY THIS MRNG. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE               
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. MDL TSCTS SHOW WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL LIFT             
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND MDL QPF IS VERY LIGHT.            
THUS...BELIEVE ONLY FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MDLS            
SHOW GOOD DRYING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING             
IN. THEREFORE...THE FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT THIS                  
EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. WIND CHILLS COULD             
BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS TEMPS FALL TO BELOW ZERO            
AND WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON            
AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. LOWS WILL BE TUFF              
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WINDS DROP OFF AND HOW LOW THE                
DWPTS GO BUT...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER...THE LOWS SHOULD NOT BE             
AS COLD AS THE ETA AND MAV GUID ARE GOING AND NOT AS WARM AS THE                
FWC. GUID WAS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS AND LOWS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LAST             
WEEK AND BELIEVE THIS AGAIN WILL BE THE CASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL              
DAYS. THUS...TRENDED HIGHER ON LOWS AND HIGHS THAN THE ETA AND MAV              
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF            
THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SFC LOW PRES BEGINS             
TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NW. AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS              
UP...S TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY SUN AFTN. WITH SS...WAA AND GOOD             
SFC HEATING...TEMPS WILL RISE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY                
FROM THE COLD MRNG LOWS BELOW ZERO. THE ETA...GFS...CANADIAN AND                
UKMET SHOW A SFC LOW PRES DROPPING ACROSS ND...NE SD AND INTO C MN              
SUN NIGHT AND MON. WAA CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ABR CWA               
SUN AFTN AND EVENING. WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AND MDL QPF...NC SD                
INTO WC MN SHOULD HAVE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH C SD REMAINING DRY.             
WITH CLOUD COVER AND MUCH OF THE ABR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS             
SHOULD NOT FALL OFF MUCH SUN NIGHT AND MAY EVEN RISE. KEPT A CHANCE             
OF LIGHT SNOW IN NE SD AND WC MN MON MRNG WITH SFC LOW MOVING                   
THROUGH. MONDAYS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC             
PUSH OCCURRING MON AFTN AND NIGHT.                                              
.ABR...NONE                                                                     
DORN/MOHR                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
535 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                       
...AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                       
CURRENT TAFS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE                    
REQUIRED FOR THIS ISSUANCE. MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR             
PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE                
FROM THE MESOETA AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN                  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND OBSTRUCTIONS             
TO VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH                      
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS             
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER               
02/06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY                   
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY END OF THE FORECAST                 
PERIOD...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                       
65/DD                                                                           
...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                
EXPECT CONFLUENT...W/SWLY/FAST ZONAL TYPE FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR             
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOUD CVR THROUGH AT               
LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF PD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE LATE             
THIS AFTN SW HALF WHERE DEPTH OF LOW LVL MSTR/REMNANTS OF OLD ARCTIC            
DOME IS THE SHALLOWEST. RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE             
TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN POLAR STREAM WHICH WILL PUSH LOW            
PRESSURE OVER W TX DOWN INTO NRN MEXICO AND ALLOW A MINOR BACK DOOR             
FRONT LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...BEFORE REINFORCING POLAR COLD FRONT             
ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY. WILL INSERT LOW END POPS LATE TODAY NORTH...              
THEN BETTER SHOT SOUTH SUN. ACTION PICK UPS OVER THE REGION MON AFTN            
PER CANADIAN/EXTENDED ETA. SUB TROPICAL JET EASES NWD AT THIS TIME              
WITH DESERT SW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLING OUT OVER TX/OK. PWATS NEAR 1            
INCH OVER CENTRAL TX BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW WILL INSERT LOW CHANCE               
FOR RAIN...SLGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDER...AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES            
INCREASE OVERHEAD IN LIEU OF 850 WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER LOW LVL               
COOL DOME. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON SCENERIO...THUS THE LOW POPS FOR              
NOW.                                                                            
TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH THROUGH               
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SWLY FLOW/WAA PATTERN RESUMES BEHIND            
DEPARTING POLAR HIGH TUESDAY...WITH A BREEZY/WARMER DAY EXPECTED                
WITH FINALLY SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS WELL.                                     
.EXTENDED...SW U.S SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES RETROGRADING SWWD OVER            
THE ERN PACIFIC/BAJA CA REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SECOND COLD FRONT             
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS OCCURS              
WITH POLAR HIGH SHUNTING COOLER AIR BACK EAST WITH ANOTHER SLOW WARM            
UP THURS/FRI AS WAA/SWLY LOW LVL FLOW RESUMES. NOT GOING QUITE AS               
WARM AS GFS AS IT NEVER REALLY BRINGS THE POLAR AIR INTO N TX. I                
FIND THIS HARD TO SWALLOW PER SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS AND KNOWING              
GFS'S POOR HANDLING OF LOW LVL POLAR BEYOND DAY 4. EXPECT MORE OF               
GRADUAL WARM UP AND AT LEAST SOME COOL DOWN WHICH  CANADIAN/ECMWF               
SOLUTIONS SHOW...DESPITE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. IT'S STILL WINTER.                
FCSTID =  05/                                                                   
DFW   55  41  48  33 /   0   0  20  20                                          
ACT   59  44  50  34 /   0  20  30  30                                          
PRX   51  40  47  32 /  20   0  20  10                                          
DTO   53  36  45  29 /  20   0  20  10                                          
TKI   53  36  45  29 /  20   0  20  10                                          
DAL   55  41  48  33 /   0   0  20  20                                          
TRL   55  45  50  35 /   0  10  20  20                                          
CRS   55  45  50  35 /   0  10  20  20                                          
TPL   60  46  52  36 /   0  20  30  30                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
135 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003                                                      
SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...NUMEROUS FCST CHALLENGES THRU THE                
NEXT 7 DAYS. LONG TERM MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN REV             
DAYS THOUGH. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUS ON SNOW AMOUNT/LOCATION              
TONIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PCPN...SKY COVER TOMORROW AND THE              
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STEM AROUND TEMPS/TIMING             
OF EVENTS ACROSS THE AREA IN AN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD             
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK.                   
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING PCPN OVER MO MOVING TO THE NE               
BETWEEN I-44 AND I-70. PCPN MOVG NE AT A GOOD CLIP. SAT PICS SHOWING            
THE WHOLE MIDWEST AREA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME                
LIGHT DZ. UPPER AIR CHARTS STILL SHOWING VERY COLD AIR OVER CANADA.             
12Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN WHAT                   
APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT, MORE OR LESS RIGHT            
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA. MM-5 AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE A MORE              
SOUTHERLY TRACK AS DID SOME OF THE 01/00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS CREATES A            
DILEMMA ON WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST SNOW BAND. FCST SOUNDINGS                    
INDICATE PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY            
WAIT UNTIL PRESS TIME TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON BEST SNOW LOCATION.             
PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS 1-2+ INCHES            
THAT FELL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. PLANNING ON               
MAKING NO MENTION OF PCPN TIMING CONSIDERING FROPA LATE ALSO. STILL             
LOOKING FOR FROPA AROUND 08Z OR SO IN THE NORTH AND TOWARD 11-12Z IN            
THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS WILL STAY PRETTY STEADY TONIGHT UNTIL                   
FROPA...MAKING OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE TRICKY.                                  
TIME HEIGHTS/PLAN VIEWS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH                    
FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PC IN THE AFTERNOON...HAVE WORDED            
ZONES THAT WAY. TEMPS WONT GO MUCH OF ANYWHERE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.              
COLD TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER MCLR SKIES.                                           
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON-MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT            
AND TUE. LOWERED POPS A TAD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DATABASE.               
BEST CHANCE POPS ON TUE AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. MAY BE A DECENT              
SNOW TUE...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. I DROPPED THE                
POPS FOR WED MORNING OUT OF THE DATABASE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD              
THE AREA THURSDAY BUT MORE SO THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REMOVED POPS               
FOR THUR DAY AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF POPS THUR NIGHT AND FRI. WENT             
DRY ON SAT, BUT THAT ME BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE ALSO. TIMING OF SYSTEMS            
IN FAST ZONAL FLOW THRU THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUFF. MODERATING TEMPS             
WED-FRI, BUT STILL WENT A LITTLE BELOW THE MOS NUMBERS. ADJUSTED                
THURSDAYS HIGHS UPWARD TO BETTER MATCH LSX TEMPS.                               
THANKS TO LSX FOR COORDINATION. FURTHER COORDINATION WELCOME.                   
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
HALL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1003 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                      
WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY. WILL BE TAKING OUT ALL MORNING               
WORDING FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOG. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOKS LIKE                
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WINDS             
ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALREADY WITH A TAD HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE               
WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. RUC LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL...             
AND WILL UPDATE WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY                 
APROACHING MAXES IN THE NORTHEWEST HALF.                                        
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC...WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES 3                
TO 5 DEGREES THERE. WILL LEAVE THE TEMPERATURES ALONE IN THE EXTREME            
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER.               
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
242 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003                                                      
SHORT TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER                        
TERM...WARM UP STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS.                            
POTENT MID TROP VORT MOVING INTO WEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.                  
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE                     
VORT...FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI...BACK INTO SW MISSOURI AND NE                    
OKLAHOMA. THE PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED TO BE SLEET AND SNOW IN                
MISSOURI...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN IN NE OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM               
MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE RUC...ETA AND AVN ALL SHOW MOST OF THE                 
MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND LATEST RADAR                  
LOOP SUPPORTS THIS TREND. FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN                  
END OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE OUR CHANCE                   
POPS FOR EITHER RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS S ILLINOIS AND SW                   
INDIANA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POPS RATHER LOW...AND QPF SCANT                  
FARTHER SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI. WILL GO WITH SPRINKLES             
OR FLURRIES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT STILL ON THE CLOUDY AND               
COOL SIDE AS NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS AND MAINTAINS SOME CAA.                 
THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES ARE                   
FORECAST TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT.                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW                   
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILDER. NEXT                  
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY                  
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF             
MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH. WENT MORE WITH GFS TIMING.                     
QUIET WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES            
ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN AS                 
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS               
SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM UP...                    
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PER THE ECMWF AND MRF...A FRONTAL               
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WE WENT              
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH                  
EARLY SATURDAY.                                                                 
.PAH...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
CN                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
1140 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN FOR MONDAY.             
.DISCUSSION...MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.              
COMPLICATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS            
AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPLICATING SNOWFALL               
FORECAST.  SNOW PICKED UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE WASATCH                 
FRONT PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE SALT LAKE AREA AND OGDEN AREAS.  VERY               
OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE RADAR LOOP MOVING                          
SOUTH OVER THE LAKE.  HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE FARMINGTON            
AND EAST LAYTON AREAS...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION.  06Z              
MM5-ETA ACTUALLY PEGGED THIS CIRCULATION QUITE NICELY...ALSO SHOWING            
THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  RIGHT ON                      
CUE...SNOW HAS DECREASED IN THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...BUT STILL              
GOING ALONG I-80 AND SOUTH FROM THE GRANTSVILLE AREA TO THE EAST                
SALT LAKE AREA INTO COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS.  THIS ISN'T SHOWING SIGNS OF            
LETTING UP...WHILE POINTS NORTH HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED.  FEEL HEAVY            
SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY              
AMOUNTS FOR STORM TOTALS...MAYBE EVEN HIGH END ADVISORY FOR THE                 
AREAS UNDER CURRENT BAND ACROSS SLC AREA.  LOW LEVEL VORT CENTER ON             
THE LATEST RUC OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND IN THE IR LOOP IS FORECAST TO            
REMAIN STATIONARY...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS A POSSIBLE SNOW              
ENHANCER IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.  NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NOT DOING             
AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 GIVEN POOR OROGRAPHICS.  700 MB              
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...FURTHER DECREASING                  
CHANCES OF HEAVIER SNOW THERE.                                                  
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...700 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES                 
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.  ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY              
SNOWFALL FROM DELTA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SGU AREA.  WITH NEWEST               
MODELS TAKING 700 MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...AGAIN SHOWING UP NICELY             
ON THE RUC ANALYSES AND FORECASTS...AND MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST            
IR ENHANCEMENTS AND RADAR RETURNS...AND COMBINED WITH FORECAST                  
INSTABILITY...FEEL SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS                
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS                
MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE              
NORTHEASTERLY UNDER A FOLDING OVER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  SO            
ALSO ADDED WARNINGS TO THE SOUTH AND AN ADVISORY TO CENTRAL AND                 
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.                                                            
SLC 720 CDC 830 JACKSON                                                         
.SLC...SNOW ADVISORIES AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING             
       WASATCH FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS.  SEE              
       SLCWSWSLC FOR DETAILS.                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
220 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2003                                                       
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                        
ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO.             
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD              
OF MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.  AREA OF SNOW OCCURRING IN             
A BAND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING                
IS.  SUBSIDENCE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THE SNOW...CAUSING CLOUDS TO                 
ERODE QUICKLY.                                                                  
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI                 
RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE                   
SOUTH.  IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM REMAINS A CLEAR SLOT THAT EXTENDS               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AND             
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH                       
TEMPERATURES UP.                                                                
ETA/GFS/RUC CONTINUE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH             
TONIGHT.  MODELS SHOW FORCING IN ALL LAYERS AND ARE TIMELY WITH IT.             
BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  BUT BASED ON                  
CURRENT REALITY...THINK THERE REMAINS A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS               
THE FORECAST AREA.                                                              
SO TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES WITH INCH OR LESS                       
ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                   
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST FORCING RESIDES.                                        
ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET AND WITH            
HOW MUCH WIND.  850 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOTS MOVING                
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.  BY 12Z...THESE WINDS                  
SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...1000-850 MB LAPSE            
RATES ARE ONLY 2-3 C/KM.  THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR               
THE MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM.  THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE.  THE STRONG                
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...6-8 MB/HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...AND            
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGEST THIS.  WITH THAT SAID...THE COLDER                  
TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN.  AS A RESULT...BEST            
ESTIMATION FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY RESIDE FROM 6-10 AM SUNDAY                   
MORNING FOR THE WIND SWEPT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND                     
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES IS WISCONSIN.  WITH THE TEMPERATURES BEING                
WARMER...IT SEEMS TO BE BORDERLINE.  AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ADVISORY               
WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF AND ASK THE EVENING AND               
MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TO REASSESS.                                                    
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND                  
MONDAY.  ASSESSMENT OF THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE REALLY SHOWS THE             
STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  IN EXCESS OF 8 UBARS/S OF NET                    
ADIABATIC ASCENT IS FORECAST BY THE ETA.  THE GFS IS IN GOOD                    
AGREEMENT WITH THIS.  TIMING REMAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.              
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD.  LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE FORMED              
BY DENDRITIC PROCESSES...SO SNOW WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH.  THIS             
COULD LEAVE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.                
YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT              
AND TUESDAY.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH...AND IN                 
FACT...TRENDS TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE                
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /7 DAYS/.  AS A RESULT...HAVE                  
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF.                                          
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE                     
DISTURBANCE MOVING THOUGH THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME            
PERIOD.  ALSO...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER...PUSHING THE 850 MB ZERO              
DEGREE CELSIUS LINE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS SUGGESTS SOME             
RAIN CHANCES.  WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS AT THIS TIME.  BUT IF THIS               
TREND CONTINUES...WILL INTRODUCE IN SUNDAYS AFTERNOON FORECAST                  
PACKAGE.  WHAT I DID DO DURING THE TIME IS WARM TEMPERATURES UP A               
FEW DEGREES.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL            
FLOW PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.                                        
MPX/DMX/DVN/MKX/GRB/DLH...ISC GRIDS OUT.  CANNOT LOG INTO                       
COORDINATION CHAT SOFTWARE DUE TO SLO PROBLEM.                                  
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
KRC                                                                             
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi