000
AGXX40 KNHC 160750
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
247 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

RADIOFAX SCHEDULE FOR GRAPHICAL WIND WAVE...SURFACE FORECAST AND 
PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS HAS CHANGED. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS 
INCLUDES 24...36...48 AND 72 HOUR WIND WAVE..24...48..72 HOUR 
SURFACE FORECAST AND 48 AND 72 HOUR PEAK WAVE PERIOD CHARTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE FAX SCHEDULE
ON THE NHC WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/RADIOFAX.SHTML

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA COAST TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO...FURTHER S THAN ALL 
NWP MODELS HAD FCST OWING TO THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS BEHIND 
THE FRONT. IN ANY EVENT NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS FCST ARE 
OCCURRING N OF THE FRONT OVER THE EXTREME NW GULF. THE FRONT 
SHOULD STALL LATER THIS MORNING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF 
TAMPICO AND BISECT THE NW GULF ZONE. SINCE THE FRONT PUSHED
FURTHER S WILL DELAY THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT BACK OVER TEXAS
UNTIL TONIGHT. SINCE THE AIRMASS IS SO SHALLOW WE MAY SEE A JUMP 
IN THE FRONTAL POSITION TO THE TEXAS COAST RATHER THAN 
CONTINUOUS NWD PROPAGATION. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INLAND SE 
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT WITH THE 
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 95W SAT.    
 
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC...
LOW PRES HAS NOW DEVELOPED WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR 28N54W WITH A
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR 22N58W...WHERE ANOTHER CENTER 
MAY BE FORMING WHICH IF IT DOES THE AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE 
MORE ELONGATED IN NATURE WITH A BROAD CENTER. THE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 41N55W IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 360 
NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AND E OF 60W AS INDICATED BY A 
2250 UTC HIGH RES QSCAT PASS. THE BROAD LOW PRES IS FCST TO MOVE 
WSW TO NEAR 27N59W THIS EVENING AND TO NEAR 25N62W LATE WED AND 
OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH LATE THU OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE 
ZONE. THE AREA OF GALES MOVES WWD WITH THE LOW ON WED AND GIVEN 
THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A GRADIENT STORM WILL BRING GALES INTO 
THE E PORTIONS OF THE ZONE ON WED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS STILL 
NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW EVOLVES. IN ANY EVENT THE
TRAJECTORY AND FOCUS OF THE WINDS CHANGES TODAY AND WED WITH N 
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT PRIMARILY E OF 70W. THE 14 FT SEAS AT 
BUOY 41043 ARE ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAN THE SHORT TERM FCST OF THE 
NWW3. THESE SEAS COMBINED WITH 11-12 SEC PERIODS SHOULD ARRIVE 
INTO THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES SHORTLY AND PERSIST THROUGH 
WED...AND ABATE THU. AREA OF WINDS BEGINS TO SHRINK THU AND 
DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT WITH 
LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING SEAS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...
2255 UTC HI RES QSCAT PASS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF NE WINDS OF 
20-25 KT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W AND THE NW PORTION OF 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC. IN ADDITION ENHANCED FUNNELING IN THE 
WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES IS UNDERWAY AS WELL. THE FRESH NE 
WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BACK TO THE NW AND WEAKEN LATER 
TODAY AND WED AS THE LOW PRES TRACKS N OF THE ZONE. WINDS OVER 
ALL AREAS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE WEAKENED AREA OF LOW PRES 
APPROACHES THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE NE. WINDS DECREASE ALL 
AREAS FRI AND SAT AS THE LOW PRES WILL HAVE OPENED UP INTO A 
TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC...
AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED FROM 24N TO 30N E OF 68W. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.