FXUS04 KWBC 260653
QPFPFD
 
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
252 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004
 
PRELIM DAY 1 AND DAY 2 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 27/1200 UTC THRU SEP 28/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
 

FL/COASTAL SERN U.S....

THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST TRACK FOR HRCN JEANNE AND MOST OF THE
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NW TODAY
ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL
COAST AND INTO THE WRN ATL.   SIMILAR TO PREV MODEL CYCLES...THE
ETA'S QPF LOOKS WAY UNDERDONE GIVEN THE PRESENT WELL DEFINED
NATURE OF THE PCPN ASSOC WITH JEANNE.    DAY 1 QPF AMTS ARE
CLOSER TO THE GFS.  A BROAD REGION OF HVY RAINS ARE LIKELY DAY 1
ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE FROM CNTRL FL NWD INTO NRN FL/SRN
GA...WITH AMTS IN THE 5-8" RANGE LIKELY.   TOWARD THE END OF THE
DAY 1 TIME PERIOD...PCPN WL LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE CNTR OF JEANNE AS A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WL DEVELOP ACRS THE SERN U.S. INTO THE SRN MID ATL WHERE MOIST
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WL BE STRENGTHENING SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON.

SRN HIGH PLAINS...

NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE DETAILS OF QPF ACRS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.  HOWEVER...HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THERE WL CONT TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR
PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND WRN TX AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVG AREA OF
HT FALLS ACRS NRN MEXICO AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.   MANUAL DAY 1
QPF IS EMPHASIZING AREAS FROM INVOF THE BIG BEND NWWD ALONG
THE PECOS RIVER FOR MAX QPF.    THIS AREA CORRESPONDS TO WHERE
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING BEST UPR DIFFLUENCE EARLY DAY 1 FOR
PRESENT ENHANCING CONVECTION OVR SWRN TX TO PUSH EWD...AND
WHERE MODELS THEN TRACK ADDITIONAL SHRTWV ENERGY EWD SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP.  AREAL AVG .50-1" AMTS ARE DEPICTED...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS.

NRN ROCKIES/PAC NW...

SHRTWV ENERGY PRESENTLY MOVG INTO SRN OR EARLY THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID LEVEL HTS TO THE
NORTH OVR SWRN CAN.  THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THIS SHRTWV THAN THE ETA.  THIS LOOKS BETTER GIVEN LATEST SATL
TRENDS.   PREFERRED THE GFS' DEPICTION OF AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS VORT ACRS CNTRL TO ERN
OR...EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.   ATTM...AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS ARE
DEPICTED UNDER .25"..BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
LOCALLY MDT TO HVY AMTS.  

NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VALLEY....

FAST MOVG AREA OF MID LEVEL HT FALLS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACRS
CNTRL CAN  WL HELP PUSH A SFC CDFNT SEWD THRU THE NRN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY DAY 1.  SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT...BUT THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
PCPN AMTS LIGHT.  

DAY 2...

...SOUTHEAST/MID ATL...

DRAWN NWD BY THE UPR RIDGE TO ITS E...TROPICAL CYCLONE JEANNE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NWD FROM ERN GA INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT. 
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG ONSHORE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD PLACE THE HEAVIEST PCPN JUST N OF THE CTR.  BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD...ANTICIPATE THE HEAVIEST PCPN TO FOUND W OF
THE CTR AS STRONG ELY FLOW N OF THE CTRL FOCUSES THE DEEP
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE ONTO THE
OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE SRN/CTRL APPALACHIANS. 
OVERALL...THE QPF IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AMTS...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
MADE FOR THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK.  SCALED DOWN AMTS OVER THE NRN
MID ATL...WHERE THE GFS APPEARS TO DEVELOP SOME FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS EARLY ON.  OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PCPN UP THRU THE MID ATL AS IT PULLS MOISTURE ONSHORE.

...WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NRN ROCKIES VIA THE NRN/CTRL PLAINS...

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA/GFS EVOLVE THIS PERIOD
WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THE UPR TROF DROPPING SEWD OUT
OF CAN INTO THE N CTRL U.S.  THE ETA APPEARS TO BE THE RELATIVE
OUTLIER HERE...PROGRESSING THE TAIL END OF THIS TROF THRU THE UPR
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VLY.  THE GFS/UKMET/CAN GLOBAL ALL
SUPPORT A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS THE TAIL END OF THE TROF
BACK ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/NRN PLAINS.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE TREND
OF THOSE THREE MODELS TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION...PREFERRED
THE GFS.

...SRN PLAINS...

REPLENISHED BY PERSISTENT ELY FLOW...A FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH WEAK SHRTWV ENERGY
ROTATING ABOUT A POORLY DEFINED UPR LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION.  AS WITH THE TROF TO THE N...THE ETA IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE MOVING THE UPR CTR OUT TOWARDS THE LWR MS VLY. 
THE GFS/UKMET/CAN GLOBAL ALL AGREE ON A SLOWER SOLUTION.  THE
TRENDS HOWEVER ARE SUPPORTING A MOVE TOWARDS THE FASTER ETA. 
THAT SAID...OPTED FOR A MODEL BLEND...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
SLOWER CONSENSUS.

ORAVEC/PEREIRA

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 
24HR QP VT 27/12Z
 0.01 456198 462153 466148 479142 489129 486093 472060 465018 
      469993 488976 512929 507871 491818 478819 463843 439909 
      438951 431989 425021 432039 441048 444052 446057 447060 
      445064 441068 439074 439089 435099 433105 433113 440117 
      442121 441129 438133 435137 432141 431145 430149 435160 
      440169 441176 438181 432188 429188 426190 422192 420197 
      419206 420212 422218 424222 428227 433228 440230 449227 
      455221 456198 
 0.01 370767 368760 365753 360744 357740 353738 349738 344740 
      323755 311766 303772 295776 278781 271782 266783 256790 
      250794 244800 241804 240808 239818 239835 239845 241851 
      244854 249860 257862 268859 273857 277858 291862 300862 
      306861 310858 318855 325850 341836 347830 353822 362804 
      368788 371775 370767 
 0.01 381057 378053 375049 372046 371042 371037 375014 372009 
      369004 369997 366990 358987 351986 346987 339987 335984 
      327979 306979 301978 295979 285983 279983 276980 272972 
      265965 260963 255962 249963 246965 243969 242974 242979 
      243986 248994 253000 256011 260023 260028 263032 266041 
      271050 277059 282066 296075 305081 310085 312089 315090 
      318088 321086 327081 335075 346071 356072 364072 370068 
      375065 381057 
 0.25 353765 349763 344764 340766 329774 321778 312782 300785 
      287786 274788 267792 261797 254805 251812 249817 247824 
      247829 250835 255840 263845 270847 277848 287850 295852 
      301853 309851 316847 321844 328838 331832 333826 335819 
      338812 344800 350787 352780 354775 354767 353765 
 0.25 347017 345010 342007 338004 333002 330001 325003 316006 
      305007 297005 289997 285994 282994 273998 272007 271015 
      271022 271029 273035 279041 286047 294053 302057 307059 
      313059 319055 329049 335045 343024 347017 
 0.50 342782 336782 331783 319788 307791 296791 285791 279791 
      273794 267798 263802 259811 255821 254825 256832 259836 
      263839 272844 293847 297849 303849 315844 319841 323836 
      328827 334804 338791 342782 
 0.50 330022 328018 325016 320016 306012 299011 294008 285999 
      281004 278010 278017 279025 281032 285037 290040 293045 
      300047 307046 313043 318039 322035 326028 330022 
 1.00 328811 324798 316796 302800 280797 272800 267805 265812 
      265821 267828 271835 276838 289844 297846 304845 313842 
      316839 318835 325822 328811 
 1.00 296024 297021 295018 292016 290015 289015 288018 290020 
      291021 292024 294024 295025 296024 
 1.50 322816 321811 319808 313806 306807 301806 296803 290801 
      284800 278800 272803 268808 268815 269824 274831 277834 
      283839 288841 294843 300844 309841 312839 315836 318831 
      321823 322816 
 2.00 319824 319819 318815 314812 303810 295805 285802 280802 
      274804 271809 270814 271822 275828 283835 287838 291840 
      296841 302841 310838 315833 317828 319824 
 3.00 316822 310817 301814 295810 288806 283805 278808 276812 
      275817 278825 284831 290836 293838 299838 307836 310834 
      314830 316826 316822 
 4.00 311827 311822 308819 302817 298816 292811 287809 283810 
      281813 280819 281824 284828 288833 292835 299835 306834 
      310828 311827 
 5.00 309825 307822 305821 302819 299819 294817 292814 288812 
      285812 283815 282819 284824 288830 290832 294833 297833 
      303833 308829 309825 
 6.00 307826 305823 303822 301821 300821 296820 294821 293821 
      291818 289816 289815 286814 284818 285821 287823 288826 
      290829 294830 294831 296830 299832 300832 303831 304830 
      305829 307826 
 7.00 301828 300825 298824 297826 299829 301828  
 
24HR QP VT 28/12Z
 0.01 494811 494805 492800 484805 480810 475816 474818 472818 
      468815 456825 448822 444823 440828 435840 430853 425868 
      421879 414893 410904 407911 405917 404923 402929 398940 
      394951 391957 388964 382973 373983 364991 358993 352994 
      347992 343989 328975 323973 318974 314976 307981 282979 
      273976 267975 261977 258980 257986 258993 259999 272019 
      278028 283038 285043 289047 295054 305059 313062 321064 
      329065 343064 349065 357068 365073 369079 372085 375090 
      379090 383089 386083 389083 392084 397081 402076 412077 
      415080 416083 419089 421096 425101 429104 434108 445112 
      451113 455117 457124 460130 485139 489141 492140 491135 
      487130 481125 475121 475115 478105 476098 471086 469081 
      465077 460073 457065 450054 449045 446037 445032 445028 
      447022 450005 451999 453991 457963 461946 465931 473901 
      477887 481875 485860 488852 489847 491837 493831 493827 
      494811 
 0.01 429754 426747 422742 418738 413736 405735 396735 384737 
      373740 364742 355745 342749 330756 315770 309773 305778 
      303783 298786 287791 277797 269804 263812 261817 260821 
      261827 265833 267837 274837 278836 287837 296840 303844 
      307850 309857 311861 314864 318866 323867 328869 335867 
      344860 351853 359844 365836 368833 372831 375828 378825 
      383822 390813 396805 399800 405796 423779 425778 427773 
      429767 429754 
 0.01 340095 339092 338089 337085 337082 337078 336075 335075 
      333077 330078 329078 330080 331082 332085 332088 332089 
      334092 335095 338098 340095 
 0.01 270791 268788 265786 259786 254789 245795 240800 236808 
      234815 235821 237826 240828 244827 248822 251821 252817 
      255816 259808 264801 269795 270791 
 0.25 418769 417762 414758 407757 399759 394758 380753 373752 
      367751 359751 352753 344757 337762 317783 308788 303793 
      294804 290811 290816 291821 296827 301831 307835 312840 
      316850 319855 326856 335853 343850 348847 354842 359835 
      369825 378819 383812 392800 398794 406788 412782 416776 
      418769 
 0.25 440905 436903 433908 428917 420935 411954 406963 402971 
      397982 395991 392002 391010 394014 400013 405011 410006 
      417998 422990 426979 430969 437948 439942 440937 441926 
      440905 
 0.25 345017 345011 342007 336002 328998 318996 309995 301993 
      292991 287991 282993 279996 279001 282009 292024 297031 
      298037 299040 302043 307045 312052 316053 322053 326051 
      327048 329041 329035 331031 335029 338027 341024 345017 
 0.50 412769 409766 406766 399766 394766 387764 381761 375759 
      369757 363756 356757 350758 342763 338766 319788 311793 
      306798 300808 298816 300822 304827 308830 312834 317844 
      320849 322851 326852 343846 351842 354838 359831 364826 
      376816 386805 390798 394794 402788 407783 411775 412769 
 0.50 314013 314008 311003 308001 305000 299000 294001 291002 
      292005 294008 298011 301014 306017 309017 311016 314013 
 1.00 397781 393776 389774 380770 371769 363767 358766 352767 
      346770 341774 327789 324794 320798 317801 315805 310817 
      310821 312827 318838 320841 324844 329845 335844 346840 
      351836 355832 360825 366820 369817 376807 384800 390791 
      395785 397781 
 1.50 389781 386777 382776 374779 365782 358780 348783 340787 
      333794 326800 321806 318814 315821 315824 316829 321836 
      323839 326841 334840 343838 348836 352833 355827 359823 
      363820 368814 372806 377800 383793 387786 389781 
 2.00 378794 378790 373789 368791 359794 354793 345796 340797 
      327806 322819 318824 320830 324837 328839 332837 337837 
      345834 349833 352829 354824 358821 362819 366814 374800 
      378794 
 3.00 372797 370796 367798 365800 364801 363803 361806 361809 
      360810 362811 365811 367808 368807 369805 371802 372800 
      372797 
 3.00 354817 352810 349808 345806 340807 335810 332812 334818 
      335821 335825 337829 340830 343828 345824 347822 350821 
      354817 
 4.00 367805 369802 368801 366803 366804 367805  
 
`$$