AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...QUICK UPDATE...                                                              
UPGRADED ADVY FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES TO WRNG AFTER              
RECEIVING SPOTTER REPORT FM LAURIUM OF 6 INCHES ACCUMULATION BTWN               
630 PM AND 10 PM. SPOTTER INDICATES SN WAS STILL FALLING HVY AT                 
TIMES WHERE 88D INDICATES 22DBZ AT 13K FT...AND VSBY AT CMX IS AT               
1/4SM. CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS            
AREA TO SATISFY WRNG AMT OF 8 INCHES/12 HRS TO BE HI BEFORE EXIT OF             
DEEP MSTR AND WSHFT TO MORE UNFVRBL NNW SHORTLY AFTR MIDNGT.                    
KC                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT H5 SHRTWV DIVING              
TOWARD WRN LK SUP FM NRN MN ARND MEAN UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA...               
12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 90M AT INL. DESPITE STRENGTH OF SHRTWV               
APRNT ON RAOBS/WV IMAGERY...SFC LO RATHER ILL DEFINED AT 01Z WITH               
TROF STRETCHING ACRS CNTRL LK SUP INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. SO FAR...              
MOST SN HAS FALLEN OVER THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED LLVL                  
CNVGC. BUT EVEN THOUGH VSBY AT CMX HAS FQTLY BEEN DOWN TO 3/4SM                 
SINCE 21Z...SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE AREA INDICATE LTL MORE THAN AN               
INCH OF SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR WITH NATURE OF SN RATHER FINE/POWDERY.             
MID CLD SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FA...BUT 00Z GRB SDNG             
SO DRY THERE HAS BEEN LTL IF ANY SN OTHER THAN OVER THE FAR W WHERE             
SFC COLD FNT IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV IS APRCHG DESPITE VIGOROUS                 
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 UVV. UPSTREAM 00Z INL SDNG IN              
NLY FLOW BEHIND SHRTWV IS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FM THE            
SFC TO JUST ABV H7...LAPSE RATE JUST ABOUT MOIST ADIABATIC WITH                 
H85/7 TEMPS -15C/-26C.                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SN TRENDS/AMTS AS WELL AS GOING                     
HEADLINES/NEED FOR ANYMORE.                                                     
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW INCOMING SHRTWV TRACKING STEADILY ACRS               
THE CWA TNGT WITH BEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC EXITING ERY SOON AFT              
06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF LLVL CAD/NW WIND IN THE WAKE OF SFC LO FCST TO              
INTENSIFY E OF ANJ OVERNGT. CONSIDERING MOIST/UNSTABLE INL SDNG...              
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE LES ADVY FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY WHERE NAM/GFS/RUC             
ALL SHOW FOCUSED H95 CNVGC WITH FVRBL 320-330 DEGREE FLOW INTO TUE              
MRNG. LES CHART SUGS A MARGINAL ADVY WITH NO MORE THAN 6"/12 HRS                
FCST FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. WL MAINTAIN GOING ADVY FOR NRN                    
CMX/KEWEENAW COUNTIES UNTIL 11Z AS LLVL CNVGC FCST TO WEAKEN LATE               
TNGT. CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF INCOMING DPVA/QVECTOR CNGVC...GOING HI            
CHC/LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE APPEAR TO BE RSNBL EXCEPT OVER THE SCNTRL             
CLOSER TO REAL DRY GRB SDNG. BUT QUICK DURATION OF EVENT AND                    
ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS IN ABSENCE OF LK MOISTENING WL LIMIT ANY                 
ACCUM TO WELL UNDER ADVY CRITERIA. DESPITE ARRIVAL OF NW FLOW LATE              
TNGT/EARLY TUE ACRS THE LES BELTS E OF MQT...NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE               
UNIMPRESSIVE OR ABSENT LLVL CNVGC IN THESE AREAS. SO NO NEED FOR                
ADVYS IN THESE AREAS.                                                           
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
KC                                                                              
...LONG TERM...                                                                 
NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVES ABOUT EVERY 24-30 HOURS OR SO PASSING                 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE ALBERTA CLIPPERS PASSING BY. LAKE EFFECT            
CONTINUES ON TUE...BUT WINDS DOWN AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND             
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT.                                     
NAM THEN BRINGS IN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY TUE             
NIGHT ON I275K-I280K SURFACES BEFORE THE LIFT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST             
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN EARLY TUE NIGHT AND                
THEN MOVES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MORE ISENTROPIC               
LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY WED NIGHT AS WELL ON I275K-I280K SURFACES               
BEFORE THE LIFT DISAPPEARS AND THE SAME THING AGAIN HAPPENS WITH THE            
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EARLY WED NIGHT. AGAIN...NO MORE                
THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OUT OF THESE ALBERTA CLIPPERS AT BEST LOOKS             
GOOD. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND                    
THESE...BUT THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. OR               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SO LAKE EFFECT IS NOT AT ITS BEST AND                    
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THESE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS.                           
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN             
CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT AND THIS             
TROUGH AXIS IS TO THE EAST 00Z SUN. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO THE                
EAST 00Z MON WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN U.S. WILL NOT            
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES             
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUN AND THEN GO DRY ON MON AS ALBERTA                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SAT AND BEHIND IT THE LAKE EFFECT               
GETS GOING. LOOKS LIKE ON MON THAT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS              
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE AREA THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD END.                       
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS LAST             
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                      
MICHELS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-MIZ003.              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
910 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT H5 SHRTWV DIVING              
TOWARD WRN LK SUP FM NRN MN ARND MEAN UPR TROF IN ERN NAMERICA...               
12Z-24Z H5 HGT FALLS UP TO 90M AT INL. DESPITE STRENGTH OF SHRTWV               
APRNT ON RAOBS/WV IMAGERY...SFC LO RATHER ILL DEFINED AT 01Z WITH               
TROF STRETCHING ACRS CNTRL LK SUP INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD. SO FAR...              
MOST SN HAS FALLEN OVER THE KEWEENAW CLOSER TO ASSOCIATED LLVL                  
CNVGC. BUT EVEN THOUGH VSBY AT CMX HAS FQTLY BEEN DOWN TO 3/4SM                 
SINCE 21Z...SPOTTER REPORTS FM THE AREA INDICATE LTL MORE THAN AN               
INCH OF SN HAS FALLEN SO FAR WITH NATURE OF SN RATHER FINE/POWDERY.             
MID CLD SHIELD HAS OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE FA...BUT 00Z GRB SDNG             
SO DRY THERE HAS BEEN LTL IF ANY SN OTHER THAN OVER THE FAR W WHERE             
SFC COLD FNT IN COMMA TAIL OF SHRTWV IS APRCHG DESPITE VIGOROUS                 
DPVA/DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 UVV. UPSTREAM 00Z INL SDNG IN              
NLY FLOW BEHIND SHRTWV IS QUITE MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE FM THE            
SFC TO JUST ABV H7...LAPSE RATE JUST ABOUT MOIST ADIABATIC WITH                 
H85/7 TEMPS -15C/-26C.                                                          
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT ARE SN TRENDS/AMTS AS WELL AS GOING                     
HEADLINES/NEED FOR ANYMORE.                                                     
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW INCOMING SHRTWV TRACKING STEADILY ACRS               
THE CWA TNGT WITH BEST DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC EXITING ERY SOON AFT              
06Z WITH ARRIVAL OF LLVL CAD/NW WIND IN THE WAKE OF SFC LO FCST TO              
INTENSIFY E OF ANJ OVERNGT. CONSIDERING MOIST/UNSTABLE INL SDNG...              
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE LES ADVY FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY WHERE NAM/GFS/RUC             
ALL SHOW FOCUSED H95 CNVGC WITH FVRBL 320-330 DEGREE FLOW INTO TUE              
MRNG. LES CHART SUGS A MARGINAL ADVY WITH NO MORE THAN 6"/12 HRS                
FCST FOR EXPECTED CONDITIONS. WL MAINTAIN GOING ADVY FOR NRN                    
CMX/KEWEENAW COUNTIES UNTIL 11Z AS LLVL CNVGC FCST TO WEAKEN LATE               
TNGT. CONSIDERING STRENGTH OF INCOMING DPVA/QVECTOR CNGVC...GOING HI            
CHC/LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE APPEAR TO BE RSNBL EXCEPT OVER THE SCNTRL             
CLOSER TO REAL DRY GRB SDNG. BUT QUICK DURATION OF EVENT AND                    
ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS IN ABSENCE OF LK MOISTENING WL LIMIT ANY                 
ACCUM TO WELL UNDER ADVY CRITERIA. DESPITE ARRIVAL OF NW FLOW LATE              
TNGT/EARLY TUE ACRS THE LES BELTS E OF MQT...NAM/GFS/RUC INDICATE               
UNIMPRESSIVE OR ABSENT LLVL CNVGC IN THESE AREAS. SO NO NEED FOR                
ADVYS IN THESE AREAS.                                                           
COORDINATED WITH GRB.                                                           
KC                                                                              
...LONG TERM...                                                                 
NAM SHOWS MORE SHORTWAVES ABOUT EVERY 24-30 HOURS OR SO PASSING                 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE ALBERTA CLIPPERS PASSING BY. LAKE EFFECT            
CONTINUES ON TUE...BUT WINDS DOWN AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND             
SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FOR TUE NIGHT.                                     
NAM THEN BRINGS IN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY TUE             
NIGHT ON I275K-I280K SURFACES BEFORE THE LIFT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST             
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVES IN EARLY TUE NIGHT AND                
THEN MOVES OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM BRINGS IN SOME MORE ISENTROPIC               
LIFT AND MOISTURE EARLY WED NIGHT AS WELL ON I275K-I280K SURFACES               
BEFORE THE LIFT DISAPPEARS AND THE SAME THING AGAIN HAPPENS WITH THE            
850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EARLY WED NIGHT. AGAIN...NO MORE                
THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES OUT OF THESE ALBERTA CLIPPERS AT BEST LOOKS             
GOOD. THERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND                    
THESE...BUT THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. OR               
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...SO LAKE EFFECT IS NOT AT ITS BEST AND                    
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THESE WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPERS.                           
IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW THE 500 MB PATTERN             
CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SAT AND THIS             
TROUGH AXIS IS TO THE EAST 00Z SUN. TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO THE                
EAST 00Z MON WITH RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN U.S. WILL NOT            
MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES             
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUN AND THEN GO DRY ON MON AS ALBERTA                   
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SAT AND BEHIND IT THE LAKE EFFECT               
GETS GOING. LOOKS LIKE ON MON THAT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS              
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE AREA THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD END.                       
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS LAST             
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO ADJENS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.                      
MICHELS                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-MIZ003.             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
141 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
CLDS AND A FEW VRY LGT SNOW SHWRS MAKING THEIR WAY SEWRD INTO THE               
FA...AS VORT MAX IN ERN NODAK /EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY/ SWINGS                    
TOWARD MN AND WI THIS AFTN. LEADING EDGE OF HI/MID CLD DECK                     
STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY WHEATON TO LITTLE FALLS TO ASHLAND WI.                   
LOCATION OF THE FLURRIES ACRS BOTH THE FGF AND DLH FA ARE RESOLVED              
WELL IN THE 280K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS FROM THE 15Z RUC. ASSOC SFC                
LO SITTING ALNG THE INTL BRDR IN N CNTRL MN AT MIDDAY...WHICH IS                
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY SW WINDS TDA. TEMPS HAVE AGAIN MADE A                
BIG JUMP THIS AFTN UNDER THE PREVAILING SWLY LO LVL FLO AND SUNNY               
SKIES...WITH 19Z SFC OBS SHOWING MID AND UPR 20S ACRS THE MAJORITY              
OF THE FA. WIND SHIFT LINE TRAILING FROM THE SFC LO STRETCHES                   
FROM THE CNTR OF THE SFC LO /NEAR INL/ SWWRD TO AROUND PIR.                     
CURRENT MOVEMENT OF ECHOES ON THE LOCAL 88D MOSAIC TAKE THE                     
LIGHTER RETURNS ACRS THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE FA...ROUGHLY N OF               
A LINE FROM AXN TO JMR. FOLLOWING THE NEAR SATURATION ON THE 280K               
SFC FROM THE 15Z RUC...THE LGT PCPN SHUD MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF                  
POLK...BARRON...AND RUSK COUNTIES THIS EVE. HAVE INSERTED SOME                  
VRY SMALL POPS IN THESE AREAS ALTHO THE PCPN SHUD BE LGT.                       
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SYSTEM DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON TUE. BOTH              
THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE                 
FARTHER S OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...ALTHO THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHUD              
STILL AFFECT THE NRN PART OF MN. STRONGEST MID LVL WAA WILL MOVE                
INTO THE NWRN PORTION OF THE FA BTWN 12 AND 15Z ON TUE MRNG AND                 
MOVE EWRD...CLEARING THE WI COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNGT TUE NGT. HAVE                
CONFINED THE POPS TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA...WITH THE HIGHEST                  
POPS ACRS THE NRN QUARTER.                                                      
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH A DAY LATER...ON WED.                         
ATTM...THIS SYSTEM IS FARTHER N THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH THE                 
FORCING MOVING ACRS THE NRN THIRD OF MN ON WED AFTN AND WED NGT.                
HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC POPS ACRS THE NRN FA.                                        
SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THU...WHICH WILL BRING A                   
REPRIEVE FROM THE SMALL SNOW CHCS.                                              
TEMP WISE...THINGS SHUD BE WARM THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH H8              
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE                 
WEEK.                                                                           
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                               
FAST ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE GREAT                
LAKES...WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE            
TROUGHS WILL MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AS PER THE LATEST            
LONG RANGE MODELS OFF BOTH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND ECMWF. SHORTWAVE                
TROUGH/AND APPARENT COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP WRING OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW            
OR FLURRIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ARCTIC CDFNT PUSHES               
SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.  THUS ANOTHER BOUT             
OF SUBZERO TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE WEEKEND.  LONGWAVE RIDGE BEGINS            
TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SLIDE EAST OVER THE NATIONS                 
MIDSECTION BY MONDAY  EVENING.  EXPECT A DOWNWARD SPIRAL                        
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD THEN TEMPERATURES                  
SLOWLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT/JVM                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
830 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...BULK OF THE PCPN HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND CLOUDS ARE               
CONFINED MAINLY TO SRN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVNG. WATER VAPOR                   
IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MID LVL DISTURBANCE SLIDING OFFSHORE BUT DO                 
EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES                
INTO WRN CWA LATE TONIGHT IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ENHANCED CLOUDS             
CURRENTLY OVER TN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT PCPN SHOULD            
DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL WILL SCALE BACK POPS SOMEWHAT                
THIS EVNG AS BOTH LATEST RUC AND NAM INDICATE LESS QPF OVERNIGHT.               
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS NRN CWA BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATER DO            
NOT EXPECT THEM TO FALL MUCH MORE. WILL HAVE UPDATED ZONES IN A BIT.            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR OVER THE RGN NOW BUT DO EXPECT SOME LOWER                
CIGS OF THE MVFR VARIETY LATE TONIGHT AS MSTR INCREASES ACROSS THE              
RGN. IFR NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME AS ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND                
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO LOWER CIGS MORE THAN INTERMITTENTLY.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 41025 STILL INDICATING 2 TO 3 FT THIS EVNG. SFC WINDS            
ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. THIS IS            
IN LINE WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING OFFSHORE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME              
MORE WEST TO SW OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FARTHER EAST BUT WINDS            
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS MOST AREAS WITH SEAS NO MORE                
THAN 3 FT.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MLF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
845 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS CLOUD TRENDS/TEMPERATURES AND SNOW                  
CHANCES.                                                                        
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS FA TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE                  
CLEARED UNDER RIDGE IN ZONE OF Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE. NEXT IN SERIES              
OF SHORTWAVES OVER SASK/AB TO AFFECT FA MAINLY NEXT PERIOD(TUESDAY)             
CONSIDERING SNOWFALL. MAIN AFFECTS WITH FEATURE WILL BE INCREASING              
WARM ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SPREADING FROM WEST TO                
EAST LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY NOT REACH EASTERN AREAS BASED ON RUC              
TIMING SO WILL SEE COLDEST READINGS THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES                     
APPROACHING MINIMUM VALUES ACROSS FAR NW SO WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME              
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS THERE UNTIL CLOUDS ROLL IN. REMAINDER OF FORECAST            
LOOKING OK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
922 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WEAK WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF                 
UPPER JET PRODUCING ENUF LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP             
ECHOES OVER RADARS FROM KGSP WWD. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE             
THRU ABOUT 06Z...THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA AS WAVE MOVES EAST. 00Z             
H85 CHART IS VERY MOIST SO SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL REACH THE                   
GROUND. HOWEVER ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. HAVE BUMPED EARLY               
POP UP A LITTLE...BUT KEPT FCST PRECIP FREE AFTER 06Z. WINDS AND                
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREV              
FCST. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SOME WIND HOLDING ON THRU MOST OF THE                 
NIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOWS A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND A LITTLE MORE            
ACROSS THE SOUTH. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE OTHER FIELDS OVERNIGHT.             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 246 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE             
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE              
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS. PRECIPITATION CHC                    
APPEARS SMALL CONSIDERING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND NAM AND RUC                 
QPF FIELDS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC THROUGH 6Z...OTHERWISE...WILL               
KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 10%. BY SUNRISE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP                  
MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE.                  
MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT SOME ISO DENSE FOG MAY ALSO                          
DEVELOP...WILL PAINT AS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY...WEAK                 
LEE TROF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK WAA AND                  
POSSIBLY MORE SUN WILL YIELD TEMPS A CATE HIGHER THAN TODAY/S.                  
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND DWPTS.                      
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                     
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK...FAST            
MOVING SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL RUN TO RUN                
CONSISTENCY REMAINS A PROBLEM...WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE               
WEAK SYSTEMS. BRIEF WARMUP CONTINUES WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES E AND               
SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE                
REGION WITH CHANCE POPS WED AND WED NIGHT. LOOKING AT THICKNESS                 
AND FCST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX EARLY                 
WED FOR MTNS...THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT...WITH CHANCE SNOW ABOVE 3K FT.             
EXPECT RAIN DURG DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU INTO FRI WITH                 
CHANCE POP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A WINTRY MIX PSBL...MAINLY OVER              
MTNS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN SUN-MON.                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
BAND SHRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...EXCEPT KAND              
MAY SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE MAY               
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KAND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A                  
SMALL WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS            
THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.                     
KGSP...KGMU...KAND...AND KCLT SHOULD DEVELOP IFR TO LIFR FOG AND                
STRATUS TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAM COND PRES DEF INDICATE              
THE THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT MAY SEE               
FOG DEVELOP AS TEMPS APPROACH XOVR TEMPS. MOS SUPPORTS CONDITIONS               
FALLING BELOW MVFR...HOWEVER...MOS DOES NOT GO AS LOW FOR VIS. KHKY             
AND KAVL SHOULD REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE GREATER LLVL                       
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. AFTER              
MORNING MIXING...AROUND 15Z...VFR SHOULD RETURN WITH LIGHT WINDS.               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RWH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
246 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE             
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE TOP DOWN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE              
GREATEST COVERAGE OF CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS. PRECIPITATION CHC                    
APPEARS SMALL CONSIDERING UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND NAM AND RUC                 
QPF FIELDS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SCHC THROUGH 6Z...OTHERWISE...WILL               
KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 10%. BY SUNRISE...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP                  
MAINLY ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE.                  
MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT SOME ISO DENSE FOG MAY ALSO                          
DEVELOP...WILL PAINT AS PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. TUESDAY...WEAK                 
LEE TROF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WEAK WAA AND                  
POSSIBLY MORE SUN WILL YIELD TEMPS A CATE HIGHER THAN TODAY/S.                  
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MOS SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPS AND DWPTS.                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                    
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK...FAST            
MOVING SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH THE FLOW. MODEL RUN TO RUN                
CONSISTENCY REMAINS A PROBLEM...WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE               
WEAK SYSTEMS. BRIEF WARMUP CONTINUES WED AS HIGH PRES MOVES E AND               
SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE                
REGION WITH CHANCE POPS WED AND WED NIGHT. LOOKING AT THICKNESS                 
AND FCST SOUNDINGS THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A RAIN-SNOW MIX EARLY                 
WED FOR MTNS...THEN AGAIN WED NIGHT...WITH CHANCE SNOW ABOVE 3K FT.             
EXPECT RAIN DURG DAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THU INTO FRI WITH                 
CHANCE POP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH A WINTRY MIX PSBL...MAINLY OVER              
MTNS. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN SUN-MON.                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BAND SHRA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...EXCEPT KAND              
MAY SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. LLVL MOISTURE MAY               
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF KAND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A                  
SMALL WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS            
THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.                     
KGSP...KGMU...KAND...AND KCLT SHOULD DEVELOP IFR TO LIFR FOG AND                
STRATUS TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND NAM COND PRES DEF INDICATE              
THE THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND CAROLINA PIEDMONT MAY SEE               
FOG DEVELOP AS TEMPS APPROACH XOVR TEMPS. MOS SUPPORTS CONDITIONS               
FALLING BELOW MVFR...HOWEVER...MOS DOES NOT GO AS LOW FOR VIS. KHKY             
AND KAVL SHOULD REMAIN DISCONNECTED FROM THE GREATER LLVL                       
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. AFTER              
MORNING MIXING...AROUND 15Z...VFR SHOULD RETURN WITH LIGHT WINDS.               
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...NED                                                                
LONG TERM...RB                                                                  
AVIATION...NED                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
950 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE                  
STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM NRN MEXICO/TX REACHING THE SE CONUS. RADARS             
INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP FROM LA ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES             
TO THE CAROLINAS...SOME OF WHICH IS IMPACTING FAR NRN PORTIONS OF               
THE CWFA. RUC/M-ETA INDICATE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPACTING MAINLY            
ALONG AND N OF A LINE FROM KAHN-KWYN-KNBC WHICH INVOF THE DEEPEST               
MOISTURE...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES CNTR ABOUT 50 NM OFFSHORE OF KCHS            
WILL HELP THE PVA. ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP FALLING WILL BE LIGHT...DO               
NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE LEAVING POPS IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY SO WILL              
INCRS TO THE CHC CATEGORY FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA WHILE THE SRN            
HALF CAN REMAIN IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY. IN ADDITION...WITH SUCH A             
LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL INCRS CLOUD COVER IN THE            
GRIDS TO OVC.                                                                   
ALONG THE LINES OF THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE PRODUCING LOW CLOUD             
DECKS TDA...TEMPS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RISING MUCH FURTHER                
THAN THE LOW TO MID 40S SEEN IN THE CURRENT OBS...ESP IN SC. 06Z MOS            
GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH MAX TEMPS LOWER THAN THE 00Z GUIDANCE... AND              
CURRENT TEMPS ARE BELOW THE 06Z MOS GUIDANCE TEMP CURVES. WILL DROP             
MAX TEMPS TO THE UPR 40S IN NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THEN TRANSITION            
TO ARND 50 ARND THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO LWR 50S IN GA.                            
GIVEN PERSISTENT MOISTURE FLOW AND POCKETS OF LIFT THRU THIS EVE AND            
TNGT...HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE CHC CATEGORY. HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY               
DROPPED MIN TEMPS TNGT GIVEN LOWER MAX TEMPS TDA...ESP IN SC.                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...ONGOING FCST HAS WX ELEMENTS WELL HANDLED. SABSOON TWRS               
AND 41004/41008 HAVE REPORTED WAVE HEIGHTS NO HIGHER THAN 5 FT AND              
THESE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THRU MIDDAY THEN DROP               
OFF BY LATE DAY AS THE LOW PRES CNTR FORMING IN THE COASTAL WATERS              
PUSHES OFF INTO THE ATLC. WILL RUN WITH A SCEC HEADLINE IN THE OUTER            
GA WATERS BUT SHOULD NOT NEED ANY HEADLINES GOING INTO TNGT. ALL                
WATERS WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TDA.                
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE A BIT TROUBLESOME WITH THE LOW PRES AREA                 
OFFSHORE SO WILL MAINTAIN VRBL WORDING WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIGS WILL BE AT LEAST AS LOW AS MVFR THRU THE FCST                  
PERIOD...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN IFR CIGS AS THE FCST               
PROGRESSES. LIGHT NNE WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME SW DURING THE                
MID-LATE AFTN AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH              
/ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT/ TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.                         
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
942 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
88D SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS                  
MORNING. LOOKING UPSTREAM ACROSS GA/AL...APPEARS TO BE SOME                     
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AS WELL. SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF CLODS                    
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT 12Z NAM...IT DID SHOW WEAK              
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH NEARLY NEUTRAL                
MOTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THINK LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE                     
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH IT BECOMING MORE WIDELY SCATTERED BY                   
AFTERNOON. WILL BUMP UP POPS CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT FOR THE FIRST                 
PORTION OF THE DAY THEN CONTINUE WITH LOWER POPS FOR THE                        
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON               
TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 220 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                         
THE MAIN SHORT-TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE               
NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND GFS TIME-HEIGHTS                   
INDICATE SLEET MAY OCCUR. THE LATEST RUC TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW SLEET OR             
FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. THE LATEST MSAS WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE              
CLOSE TO FREEZING IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS               
SHOW LITTLE LIFT AND INDICATE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. H85              
WARM ADVECTION APPEARS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT IN             
THE ZONAL FLOW. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS VERY LOW BECAUSE            
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIMITING EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND JUST                    
MARGINAL WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURES. IF FROZEN PRECIPITATION DOES               
OCCUR SLEET APPEARS MOST LIKELY. THIS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT                 
BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED LIGHT AMOUNT AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND                 
TEMPERATURES. ENOUGH WARMING FOR ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY               
THIS AFTERNOON.                                                                 
ALL MODEL TIME-HEIGHTS AND THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATE PLAN               
RAIN FOR THE COLUMBIA AREA SOUTHWARD.                                           
THE MODEL POPS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD TODAY. THE LOW GFS MOS POP HAS               
BEEN CONSISTENT AND BASED ON EXPECTED WEAK LIFT AND CURRENT RADAR               
TRENDS IT APPEARS BEST.                                                         
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH JUST WEAK SUPPORT             
FOR RAIN. THE MODEL POPS ARE CLOSE AND PLAN TO FOLLOW.                          
THE GFS AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IS SHOWING STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT              
DEVELOPING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MET           
AND MAV POPS ARE CLOSE AND PLAN TO FOLLOW.                                      
PLAN TO USE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE                 
PERIOD...AND USE THE COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES                  
BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.                                                 
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CONTINUED                     
DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW. THE                 
LATEST GFS LOOKS WET FOR SATURDAY WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS               
RUNS. WILL WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE MAKING A CHANGE TO THE              
FORECAST.                                                                       
AVIATION...                                                                     
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES               
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 4000 FT FOR MUCH            
OF THE DAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR ICE PELLETS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH                   
OF CAE BEFORE 14Z THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND                 
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE S AND SW DURING THE               
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
FIRE WEATHER...                                                                 
SMOKE MANAGEMENT COORDINATION                                                   
TODAY   SW 13 2000                                                              
TUESDAY SW 9 3000                                                               
&&                                                                              
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
77                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
810 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...RUC 200MB WIND/WIND SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATED                      
SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A                  
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY EXCEPT                
OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE A 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY                     
SOUTHWARD. SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HAS              
MOVED AWAY FROM WEST TX THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS                  
DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TX. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A                     
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE                
LOWER TX COAST AND COASTAL BEND. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP               
TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE               
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER RIO             
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NEARLY SATURATED AIR BELOW 850MB AS                  
INDICATED ON 00Z KBRO SOUNDING. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO ADJUST               
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF            
DAYS BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE                
WEEK AS LATEST GFS RUN PROGS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH TX                  
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY                  
MOVING EASTWARD. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TX                
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED                   
STATES. COOL AND CLOUDY  CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE END OF             
THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FAIRLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE             
WATERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A LIGHT PGF DOMINATES THE                   
REGION. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AREAS OF                  
MARINE FOG TO FORM OUT OVER THE BAY AND GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT               
AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE NEXT CWF UPDATE.                      
OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE               
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE LOW SPINS UP            
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERALL CWF WORDING LOOKS OK WITH NO             
OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE BEGIN TO LOWER AROUND THE LOWER              
RGV AIRPORTS THIS EVENING AS THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS COMBINE WITH               
THE NARROWING TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND THE REGION.               
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS              
IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BEGINS            
TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. OVERALL TAF WORDING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO              
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE MOMENT.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 130 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006/                         
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND                
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO              
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRODUCING DRIER CONDITIONS. FOG              
WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT              
TONIGHT BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.                
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY               
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE                 
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM             
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BECOMING              
MODERATE AND GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES            
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.                                     
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...61                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...60                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1136 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BACK EDGE OF LOW STRATUS HAS LIFTED EAST OF THE KSJT AND KSWW TERMINALS         
AT 17Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE KABI TERMINAL BY 19Z. RUC40              
MODEL PREFERRED OVER THE ETA40 MODEL/S HANDLING OF THE LOW LEVEL                
MOISTURE THIS MORNING.                                                          
VFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. BY                     
06Z...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE HILL                        
COUNTRY...REACHING KJCT BY 06Z AND KSJT A FEW HOURS LATER. SOME                 
QUESTION AS TO WHEN/IF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO KABI. HAVE              
DECIDED TO INTRODUCE AN MVFR CIG AT KABI TOWARD 12Z...BASED ON THE              
THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED              
A NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE KABI TAF IN THE EARLY              
MORNING.                                                                        
14                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 506 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006)                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
FOR KABI...EXPECT LIFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 400 FT FOR MOST OF                  
THE MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LIFT LATE MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS                 
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KSJT WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS               
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.                            
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 406 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006)                          
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL                
TEXAS TODAY. LIMITED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS                   
MAINLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS                
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOME MOVES EAST                  
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SURFACE                  
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN                  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW WILL PUSH                  
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WELL ABOVE                    
SEASONAL NORMALS. FRONT TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.                      
HOWEVER...DECIDED ON THE GFS TIMING WHICH BRING THE LEADING EDGE                
OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE BIG COUNTY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY                      
MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR              
THE BIG COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS LOOK                            
MARGINAL...WILL CONTINUE 20 POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.               
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL                 
NORMALS...THANKS TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.                                   
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL                  
CONTINUE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE AND                
DYNAMICS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THUS...WILL GO               
WITH HIGHER POPS THERE. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT                 
DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT              
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND                      
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL                   
BRING DRIER AIR AND COOL TEMPERATURES TO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR                 
THE WEEKEND.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99/99                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1125 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
SN WINDING DN IN XTRM SE VA/NE NC...OTRW MCLDY/PSNY THRUT REST OF               
THE DAY. AVG ACCUMS AOB 1 INCH ACRS SRN VA/NE NC.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 645 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...BACK EDGE TO MAIN AREA OF SNOW                     
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-85/I-95 CORRIDOR...AND TRACKING EAST.                 
MAY BE SOME PIVOTING OF THE MSTR SEWD INTO NC/OVER NXT FEW HRS.                 
HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES/SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NXT FEW HRS...EXPECT                 
ONLY SCTD LGT SNOW SHWRS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS N                  
AND W OF AKQ TO NHK LINE...WITH BRIEF MDT SNOW BURSTS IN ERN ZONES              
THRU ABOUT 8 AM...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE A HALF INCH TO                
AN INCH.                                                                        
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 426 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LGT SNOW BEGINNING TO                    
DEVELOP ALIGNED MAINLY FROM CENTRAL NC ENE INTO VA PIEDMONT CNTYS               
ERLY THIS MRNG...LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS BANDS            
ON RUC/NAM/GFS. MODELS DEPICT SOME STRENGTHENING IN LIFT AND                    
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWN 12 AND 16 Z...ESPECIALLY IN NE NC AND               
EXTREME SRN VA...SO HAVE FOCUSED IN ON THIS AREA AND TIME FRAME                 
WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTM SHOULD LIMIT          
ACCUMS TO GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF INCH CNTRL/SE VA...TO AROUND AN           
INCH IN NC. WILL REISSUE SPS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVSRY FOR                    
NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS NXT FEW HRS. THICKNESS               
AND SFC WET BULBS INDICATE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX SE VA/NE NC              
BY LATE MRNG SO THIS WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT HIGHER ACCUMS. AFTER                 
18Z...LIFT LOOKS TO BE OFFSHORE LEAVING JUST MCDY SKIES LATER THIS              
AFTN...WITH A FEW BRKS OF SUN CNTRL VA/MD POSBL. AFTER PRECIP ENDS              
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO LWR 40S MOST AREAS.                                        
TONIGHT/TUE...MODEL TRENDS SHUNT MSTR A LITLE FARTHER SOUTH SO                  
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO GO DRY ALL ZONES TNGT...AND ONLY SCHC IN              
NC ON TUE. WLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NRML TUE.                   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...NEXT SYSTM WITH                    
BETTER FORCING RETURNING TO AREA LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE TUE                      
NGT/WED...HAVE INCRSD POPS TO LKLY WED IN SRN 1/2 CWA. PTYPE MAY                
BE AN ISSUE AT START SO CONTD WITH RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.                  
EXCEPTION MAY BE NW ZONES WHEER LOW LVL COLD AIR MAY HANG IN                    
LONGER. MADE NO CHNGES BEYOND WED IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATN                
THRU THU. PATN THEN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY INTO MORE OF POS PNA WITH                  
POSBL COLD OTBRK AGAIN FRI INTO NXT WEEKND. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT                
TO EVALUATE NXT SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY.                              
MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OUT TO                 
SEA SOUTH OF THE MID ATLC WATERS THRU MIDWEEK WITH GENERALLY                    
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS                
AREA OF LGT/MOD SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT MNLY IFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES              
(EXCEPT SBY ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD) THROUGH MIDDAY. SLOW               
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING AFTN HOURS AS STEADIER PCPN AND LOWER               
CLOUD DECKS MOVE OUT. SHUD BE MAINLY VFR ALL AREAS BY NIGHTFALL.                
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BROWN                                                    
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...25                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
645 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...BACK EDGE TO MAIN AREA OF SNOW                    
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-85/I-95 CORRIDOR...AND TRACKING EAST.                 
MAY BE SOME PIVOTING OF THE MSTR SEWD INTO NC/OVER NXT FEW HRS.                 
HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES/SPS TO ACCOUNT FOR NXT FEW HRS...EXPECT                 
ONLY SCTD LGT SNOW SHWRS WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS N                  
AND W OF AKQ TO NHK LINE...WITH BRIEF MDT SNOW BURSTS IN ERN ZONES              
THRU ABOUT 8 AM...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL BE A HALF INCH TO                
AN INCH.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 426 AM EST MON FEB 20 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LGT SNOW BEGINNING TO                    
DEVELOP ALIGNED MAINLY FROM CENTRAL NC ENE INTO VA PIEDMONT CNTYS               
ERLY THIS MRNG...LINING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS BANDS            
ON RUC/NAM/GFS. MODELS DEPICT SOME STRENGTHENING IN LIFT AND                    
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BETWN 12 AND 16 Z...ESPECIALLY IN NE NC AND               
EXTREME SRN VA...SO HAVE FOCUSED IN ON THIS AREA AND TIME FRAME                 
WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTM SHOULD LIMIT          
ACCUMS TO GENERALLY A DUSTING TO HALF INCH CNTRL/SE VA...TO AROUND AN           
INCH IN NC. WILL REISSUE SPS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVSRY FOR                    
NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS NXT FEW HRS. THICKNESS               
AND SFC WET BULBS INDICATE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX SE VA/NE NC              
BY LATE MRNG SO THIS WOULD FURTHER INHIBIT HIGHER ACCUMS. AFTER                 
18Z...LIFT LOOKS TO BE OFFSHORE LEAVING JUST MCDY SKIES LATER THIS              
AFTN...WITH A FEW BRKS OF SUN CNTRL VA/MD POSBL. AFTER PRECIP ENDS              
TEMPS WILL RISE INTO LWR 40S MOST AREAS.                                        
TONIGHT/TUE...MODEL TRENDS SHUNT MSTR A LITLE FARTHER SOUTH SO                  
HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO GO DRY ALL ZONES TNGT...AND ONLY SCHC IN              
NC ON TUE. WLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR NRML TUE.                   
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...NEXT SYSTM WITH                    
BETTER FORCING RETURNING TO AREA LOOKS TO MOVE IN LATE TUE                      
NGT/WED...HAVE INCRSD POPS TO LKLY WED IN SRN 1/2 CWA. PTYPE MAY                
BE AN ISSUE AT START SO CONTD WITH RA/SN MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.                  
EXCEPTION MAY BE NW ZONES WHEER LOW LVL COLD AIR MAY HANG IN                    
LONGER. MADE NO CHNGES BEYOND WED IN THE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATN                
THRU THU. PATN THEN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY INTO MORE OF POS PNA WITH                  
POSBL COLD OTBRK AGAIN FRI INTO NXT WEEKND. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT                
TO EVALUATE NXT SET OF MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY.                              
MARINE...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OUT TO                 
SEA SOUTH OF THE MID ATLC WATERS THRU MIDWEEK WITH GENERALLY                    
BENIGN MARINE CONDS EXPECTED.                                                   
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE DETERIORATING RAPIDLY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS                
AREA OF LGT/MOD SNOW MOVES IN. EXPECT MNLY IFR CONDS ALL TAF SITES              
(EXCEPT SBY ON NORTHERN EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD) THROUGH MIDDAY. SLOW               
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED DURING AFTN HOURS AS STEADIER PCPN AND LOWER               
CLOUD DECKS MOVE OUT. SHUD BE MAINLY VFR ALL AREAS BY NIGHTFALL.                
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...BROWN                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM UPDATE...BROWN                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
316 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY                                          
PLENTY TO DIGEST IN THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH NONE OF IT                        
SIGNIFICANT...AS FAST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY NRN STREAM DIVES OUT OF                
WRN CANADA...WHERE IT PHASES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC              
WITH STRONG ZONALLY ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET ATOP FLAT GULF COAST               
RIDGE CREATING A NICE 150KT H3 JET CORE FROM WESTERN LAKES INTO WRN             
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ARX CWA POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE                        
CONFLUENCE REGION OF THE UPPER JETS...MAINLY IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE               
/SUBSIDENT/ REGION OF THE JET MAXIMUM OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. NRN                 
STREAM FEEDS US A STEADY DIET OF TRANSIENT...MOISTURE STARVED                   
WAVES COMING ACROSS VAST STRETCHES OF LAND...WITH LITTLE CHANCE TO              
ENTRAIN DEEPER MOISTURE LOCKED UP SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET AXIS                    
MENTIONED ABOVE. THESE WAVES LINED UP FOR THIS EVENING...TUESDAY                
EVENING...WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND FRIDAY.                                       
TONIGHT...FIRST WAVE LOOKING A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THIS AFTERNOON                
PER WV LOOPS AND RADAR MOSAICS FROM KMVX/KDLH. PLENTY OF LGT SNOW               
BREAKING OUT IN THE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AREAS /280-                  
285K/ AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BOTH 18Z RUC               
AND NAM CONTINUE TO BRUSH NRN CWA THIS EVENING WITH A BAND OF                   
QUICK SATURATION/LIFT. AS STATED ABOVE...OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP                 
OVER THE CWA NOT VERY CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD UPWARD VERTICAL                   
MOTIONS...BUT SOME PRETTY DECENT MESOSCALE FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE AND         
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE NRN CWA THIS EVE WILL LIKELY BRING A FAST                
MOVING BAND OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH. DON/T EXPECT MUCH              
ACCUMULATION AT ALL...SAVE FOR TAYLOR COUNTY WHICH MAY PICK UP 1/2              
INCH. SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A SLUG                
OF COLD ADVECTION WHICH WILL BRING MORNING LOWS AGAIN INTO THE                  
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE.                                               
TUESDAY/TUES NIGHT...SHOULD START SUNNY BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE IN          
WARM ADVECTION WING OF NEXT SYSTEM /STILL A BIT STRONGER AND A                  
LITTLE SOUTH OF TONIGHT/. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES CWA BY NOON                
SO RETURN FLOW JUST IN TIME FOR THIS WAVE. TIGHT WAVELENGTH AGAIN               
PRECLUDES ANY DECENT MOISTURE INTO THIS WAVE. THOUGH...A MORE                   
SOUTHERN TRACK BRINGS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/PV ADVECTION ACROSS                 
THE NRN PORTION OF CWA. BETTER SATURATION ON THE 285K SURFACE AND               
A STRONGER/DEEPER Q/G SIGNAL WHICH CORRESPONDS TO THE OVERALL                   
STRONGER REFLECTION OF THE WAVE ALOFT. INCREASED POPS NORTH OF                  
I-90 /ESPECIALLY CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES/ AND MAY NEED TO GO                  
LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE NORTH WITH PERSISTENT/SOLID SIGNAL               
IN BOTH NAM/GFS WITH WAVE. STILL...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT BEST.                 
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE /SHORTWAVE                   
RIDGING/ IN WAKE OF TUES EVENING SYSTEM SO A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN              
LIKELY. FLOW BACKS A LITTLE MORE WLY AHEAD OF WED NIGHT WAVE...SO               
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY...AND GOOD FOR MELTING WITH                    
TEMPERATURES MOVING ABOVE NORMALS. TRACK OF WED NIGHT WAVE MORE                 
NORTHERLY AGAIN SO MAINLY A DRY PASSAGE. TRIMMED POPS BACK AGAIN                
TO ONLY THE NRN PORTIONS OF CWA. WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG         
COLD ADVECTION HOLDING OFF TIL THURSDAY.                                        
THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION SO A                 
COOLER DAY THAN WED AS 925MB TEMPS FALL BACK TOWARD -10C. MORNING               
FLURRIES IN THE EAST GIVE WAY TO SUN AND CLOUDS.                                
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                      
STILL SOME OVERALL DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING JUST HOW              
AMPLIFIED THE NOAM PATTERN WILL BE FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL                   
AFFECT HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR IS DUMPED SOUTH IN WAKE OF FRIDAY WAVE.              
WILL CONTINUE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES /20S BY DAY AND                
SINGLE DIGITS BY NIGHT/ ON THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATION SEEN                   
INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WRN RIDGING BEGINS TO DISPLACE COLD                 
NERN CONUS TROUGH. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE HERE THOUGH...AS BLOCKING                
AND ANOMALY FIELDS OF THE NCEP MEANS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING COLDER                 
AIR LINGERING A LITTLE MORE INTO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF WITH H85 TEMPS                
-5 TO -15C SAT AND SUN WITH A VERY TIGHT THERMAL RIBBON DIRECTLY                
OVERHEAD. GEM ON THE OTHER HAND PRETTY BRUTAL WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAK              
PER 00Z RUN. DON/T THINK WE WILL SEE BRUNT OF ARCTIC AIR SO                     
CONTINUED WITH SPIRIT OF GOING DATABASE. ALSO A GREAT DEAL OF                   
UNCERTAINTY WITH FRIDAY WAVE AND ITS SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.               
MED RANGE MODELS DO AGREE IT WILL BE A STRONGER WAVE...BUT RIGHT                
NOW IT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE MAIN TRACK OF THESE WAVES WILL BE TO                
OUR NORTH. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE MORE CLOSELY. ALL IN                     
ALL...FRIDAY WAVE SENDS A BRIEF AND COLD /UNCERTAIN HOW COLD/ PUSH              
ACROSS AREA FOR WEEKEND...THEN MODERATION. DRY AFTER FRIDAY AS                  
STRONG HIGH PUSHES ACROSS AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BINAU                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
430 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                 
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH            
MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT.             
AT 500 MB...NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETREATING EAST THIS                
MORNING...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE TODAY...ANOTHER WEAKER             
TROUGH REACHING NORTHERN LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.                             
MODEL QPF FIELDS RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. RUC/GFS/WRFXX SHOW              
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY MAINLY THIS MORNING...THEN DRY                   
TONIGHT...WHEREAS NAM/NGM DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
RESIDUAL VERY MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT DEPARTING EARLY                
THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WHILE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE            
SLIGHT AT BEST TODAY AND SLIGHT TO MODEST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WEAK INTO THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT                  
MAINLY NORTH. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAK AT BEST LATE TONIGHT...AS             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO DIP TO 20 TO 30 MB IN THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY PROXIMITY.                                                               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRETTY LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AS WELL. 850 TO            
500 MB MOISTURE VERY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LOWER MOISTURE                
MODESTLY GOOD TODAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER TONIGHT.                              
WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NO PRECIPITATION                   
MENTION STRONGER THAN FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT MENTION               
PRIMARILY NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE                  
MICHIGAN TRAJECTORIES. GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN                    
YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN               
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL START TO FLATTEN...CAUSING THE               
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY.              
BY THIS WEEKEND THE FLOW BUCKLES AGAIN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP            
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE            
WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                    
STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RETURN TO            
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                                        
THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO              
TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS AN             
OUTLIER SHOWING THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND            
BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                 
PREFER THE SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS                  
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING       
UP OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THIS TIME...MAKING IT HARD                
FOR THIS LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW YORK STATE. WILL                    
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTH              
WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. AM NOT               
ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                 
SYSTEM WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL                 
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET ON THURSDAY                 
WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERN                 
CWA TO SEE TEMPS CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE 40 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                  
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE            
GFS NEVER SEEMS TO GET BACK ON TRACK AFTER THE THURSDAY                         
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS FOR THE                
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS SOMEWHERE               
IN BETWEEN. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES               
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE              
LOW BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK. GOOD UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.                                                          
A BLAST OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH                
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -18 TO -20C. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO              
MID 20S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1145 PM EST MON FEB 20 2006                           
AVIATION... ISSUED 628 PM.                                                      
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS AN                    
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.            
THIS UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO               
THROUGH EARLY MORNING...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE MICHIGAN                 
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND AMPLE               
INSTABILITY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD SUSTAIN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS                 
ACROSS THE STATE. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4K FT...SO               
EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE VFR. ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE              
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING SHOULD BRING A SOME MVFR CEILINGS               
INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY                      
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PTK. INVERSIONS WILL ALSO FALL BEHIND            
THIS FRONT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OFF               
THE GREAT LAKES...SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS              
MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO CAUSE THE               
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KTS. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL               
BUILD INTO THE REGION TUES AFTERNOON ALONG WITH STRONG DRY AIR                  
ADVECTION ATOP THE MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING                   
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ441 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.           
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ442-LHZ443 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.                   
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
AVIATION...CONSIDINE                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
338 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ONGOING LES AND LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.                  
CURRENT WEATHER...09Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM IN A GENERAL             
NW FLOW EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AND THE            
SOUTHERN STREAM LOCATED FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ENE TO THE CAROLINAS.              
WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...A FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV TROUGH CROSSED              
UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AND NOW HAS MOVED TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON.              
A 1005MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR SUDBURY ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE               
SHRTWV TROUGH. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED            
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV...               
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA            
LAST EVENING...WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM AT CMX. SPOTTER REPORT                
FROM THE LAKE LINDEN AREA RECEIVED AT 1015 PM STATED THAT 6 INCHES              
OF SNOWFALL OCCURRED SINCE 630 PM WITH AN 1/8SM VISIBILITY                      
CONTINUING. THE SAME SPOTTER CALLED BACK AT 11 PM WITH AN ADDITIONAL            
3.5 INCHES. KMQT RADAR AT THE TIME SHOWED NEARLY 20DBZ RETURNS AT               
13000 FT. 00Z KINL SOUNDING EXPLAINS WHY THE SNOW WAS SO INTENSE...             
WITH A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB...ALONG             
WITH AN INVERSION AT 650MB...PROMOTING INTENSE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.                
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHED SOUTH INTO ONTONAGON AND                         
ALGER/NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES...THE HEAVIEST SNOW HAS LEFT THE                   
KEWEENAW. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A NW TO N              
LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SOME MULTI-PARALLEL BANDS ACROSS THE             
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER LITTLE             
IF ANY BANDS ARE PRESENT WEST OF THERE. 05Z TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM INL            
SHOWED AN INVERSION NOW AT 800MB...INDICATIVE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE              
BEHIND THE SHRTWV. AWAY FROM THE COLD FRONT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF              
SYNOPTIC SNOW IS OCCURRING THANKS TO DRY AIR SEEN ON THE 00Z                    
GRB...MPX AND APX SOUNDINGS. TO THE WEST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS            
BUILDING INTO MINNESOTA. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHRTWV CAN BE SEEN              
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN...AND PRESSURES FALLS ARE                   
ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.                                           
TODAY...SHRTWV OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING             
QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW               
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC AS THE HIGH PRESSURE             
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...BY 00Z...MODELS PROG THE LOW              
LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN                        
SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY                
GOING ON ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE CHANGE IN LOW              
LEVEL FLOW...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INTRUSION. HAVE FOLLOWED             
THE RUC AND OUR LOCAL WRF RUN FOR LES TRENDS...WHICH ALL SHOW LITTLE            
IN THE WAY OF QPF THIS MORNING. HAVE DROPPED ALL HEADLINES GIVEN                
THAT THE LES IS TURNING OUT TO BE LESS THAN EXPECTED. OTHER THAN                
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.             
THEREFORE...IN GENERAL EXPECTING SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY.                      
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO               
THE CLOUD COVER AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 2C COLDER.                               
TONIGHT...SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE                  
AREA...REACHING THE EASTERN U.P. BY MORNING. THIS SHRTWV LOOKS                  
STRONGER ON WATER VAPOR AND IN FACT...MODELS HAVE TRENDED                       
STRONGER...ESPECIALLY THE UKMET. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES QUICKLY              
IN THE EVENING (SEE 275-280K SURFACES) WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE               
DEFICITS NEAR 0. THEREFORE EXPECTING SYNOPTIC SNOW TO CROSS THE CWA.            
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY DECENT FOR SNOWFALL TOO WITH               
OMEGA MAXIMIZED IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER (APPROX 4000 FT              
DEEP). THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THE AIRMASS                  
INITIALLY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE DRY...BUT THINK THAT THE LIFT             
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT AN            
INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM             
AND HOW MUCH SNOW FORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MINNESOTA. HAVE              
WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES GIVEN A                  
SOUTHWEST WIND AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.                                       
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REPEAT THE PATTERN OF TODAY AND                
TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO               
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRTWV (LOCATED              
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA) DROPS INTO THE                   
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY                 
MORNING SINCE FLOW IS WESTERLY...BUT THIS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE                 
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK. ALTHOUGH SKIES MAY               
CLEAR SOME DURING THE MORNING...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEING INCREASING               
DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV. 850MB             
TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -11C COMBINED WITH SOME SUN SHOULD ALLOW                  
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 30F. CLIPPER WILL THEN MAKE               
ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SURFACE              
LOW MOVING TO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS              
CLIPPER WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS UPPER               
MICHIGAN FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT BEHIND IT ON NW WINDS. HAVE RAISED             
POPS TO LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN            
AREAS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN FOR THE LAKE EFFECT. LOW                        
TEMPERATURES AGAIN SHOULD BE KEPT UP DUE TO CLOUD COVER.                        
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND WEDNESDAY                   
NIGHT\S CLIPPER (DROPPING 850MB TEMPS TO -16 TO -18C) WILL PROMOTE              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.P. WITH A FEW                    
FLURRIES INLAND FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD            
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.. THIS ZONAL FLOW CREATION IS CAUSED BY A               
SHRTWV DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA ON THU AND INTO THE              
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRI. THURSDAY NIGHT MAY END UP SOMEWHAT CHILLY               
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH AND            
SKIES CLEAR OUT. HAVE LEFT LOW TEMPERATURES ALONE AT THE                        
MOMENT...BUT MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTING DOWNWARD IF THE TREND OF HAVING            
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD CONTINUES. ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE            
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV...BUT IT\S EFFECTS              
APPEAR TO HOLD OFF OVER UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE                 
MAINTAINED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND                  
FRIDAY...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE PULLED...AGAIN IF THE HIGH                    
PRESSURE OVERHEAD IDEA CONTINUES.                                               
EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE LOW IN THE             
NORTHERN PLAINS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES                  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE PRECISE TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE            
STILL IN QUESTION. 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH A COMPACT              
DEEP LOW. THEREFORE READINGS WILL NOT GET AS COLD AS MEX GUIDANCE               
NUMBERS MAY SUGGEST. SNOW CHANCES ARE STILL ON TRACK...HOWEVER...AS             
850MB TEMPS DO DROP DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND.            
HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS DURING THE                   
WEEKEND IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE CWA BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER              
TROUGH LOCKS ITSELF UP OVER THE NORTHEAST (DUE TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING            
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC). BEYOND MONDAY...A BLOCKED UP PATTERN IS               
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER GREENLAND...A TROUGH              
OVER NEW ENGLAND...A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH JUST OFF THE              
WEST COAST. WITH THIS SETUP...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY GO             
NOWHERE...SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
1111 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY...EXTENSIVE CLD COVER HAS REALLY                    
HAMMERED AFTN TEMPS.  CLRG HAS FINALLY SPED UP A BIT OVR OUR N                  
COUNTIES WHERE W LO LVL FLO IS A BIT STGR AND I THINK THAT THE CLRG             
WL WORK E OVRNGT...BUT ANTICIPATE THAT IT WL SLOW DOWN A BIT AFT                
SNST.  ANTICIPATING THAT THE CLRG WL EVENTUALLY WORK INTO E                     
COUNTIES... HV KEPT TNGTS MINS IN THE LM 20S OVR MOST AREAS BUT DID             
DROP THEM INTO THE TEENS OVR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WERE SNOW COVER             
LINGERS.  RADIATIONAL COOLING SHUD ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO DWPT             
OVR THE SNW FIELD..SO HV ALSO MENTIONED AREAS OF FOG IN THIS AREA               
AFT MIDN.                                                                       
RMNTS OF HIGH WL RMN OVR MID MS VLY ON TUE WHILE MID LVL WHILE W                
SECTION OF UPR TROF OVR CA CST DRIFT S.  RESULTANT FAST ZNL FLO OVR             
FA APR TO BE POSED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLDNS INTO AREA ON TUE             
AFTN/EVE...WHICH MAY ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WRMUP OVR AREA.  WL STICK WITH            
GOING FCST WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN 12Z MOS...AND ALSO                
CONTINUES EMPHASIS OF SLGTLY COOLER TEMPS OVR SNW FIELD IN SE.                  
PCPN THRT WL ALSO RMN IN THE FCST FOR TUE NGT.  ALTHO 12Z RUNS ARE              
NOT QUITE A EXCITED ABT THIS AND WAA INTO AREA DOESN'T LK QUITE AS              
STG AS ERYR...SHTWV ENERGY APRS TO BE A BIT STGR.                               
UA PTRN UNDERGOES A SGNFT CHG HEADING INTO NXT WEEKEND WITH HGTS                
LWRG OVR NE U.S. AND RDG DVLPG OVR ROCKIES...BUT SPECIFICS OF THIS              
CHG STILL VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.  GFS IS STILL FCSTG CUTOFF LO OVR NE              
WHICH RESULTS IN A RETURN OF VRY COLD AIR BACKING INTO THE MID MS               
VLY...WHILE ECMWF KPS MAIN LO OVER HUDSONS BAY WITH A TROF EXTENDING            
INTO NE...MAKING COOL DOWN MUCH LESS DRAMATIC.  AND...EACH RUN OF               
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DELAYING ONSET OF THE INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR.             
SHTWVS EMBDD IN THE FAST UA FLO WL SWING SVRL WK FRONTS INTO THE                
AREA IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME...BUT IT APRS THAT ANY DEEP SWD                  
PENETRATION OF THE CDAIR WL BE WEAK SO TEMPS SHUD RMN FAIRLY MILD.              
COLDEST AIR SHUD ARRIVE SAT-SUN...BUT ONCE AGAIN HV OPTED TO NOT GO             
AS COLD AS MOS GUIDANCE.  HV KEPT POPS BLO CLIMO...ALTHO WE'LL                  
NEED TO WATCH FRI NGT/SAT.  IF MAIN SHTWV ENDS UP BEING AS INTS AS              
FCST BY GFS MAY NEED TO INTRO POPS AT A LTR TIME.                               
TRUETT                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WKNG SFC TROF OVR THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD              
THRU NRN PTNS OF MO AND IL LTR TGT. LTL EFFECT ON FCST EXCEPT FOR               
THE SFC WND VEERING TO A NWLY DIRECTION IN UIN LT TGT AND EARLY                 
TUE MRNG. SFC WNDS MAY VEER SLIGHTLY TO A W-SWLY DIRECTION FURTHER              
S IN COU AND STL BY 12Z TUE. SFC WNDS WILL RETURN TO A SLY                      
DIRECTION BY TUE AFTN WITH SFC RDG EXTDG FM THE GULF COAST REGION               
NW INTO SERN MO AT 18Z TUE. STRATUS CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVR SRN                
MO SHOULD REMAIN S OF COU AND STL TAF SITES WITH 925 MB PROFILER                
WNDS SHOWING A W-NWLY FLOW. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS HIGH RH              
AT 925 MB OVR SRN MO ADVCTG SEWD LT TGT. MDLS DEPICT SOME MID LVL               
CLOUDINESS ARND 700 MB MOVG E-NEWD THRU MUCH OF THE CWA LT TUE                  
AFTN INTO TUE EVNG AHD OF MID-UPR LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED WK SFC                
TROF MOVG EWD THRU THE CWA TUE EVNG.                                            
GKS                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WFO LSX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
405 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                      
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STILL ON TRACK TO SLIDE SE OUT OF             
CANADA THIS MORNING...MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO             
MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT NOTED BY GFS/NAM/RUC ACROSS NE              
CWA AND POPS WERE LEFT HIGHEST IN THIS LOCATION. SFC OBS UPSTREAM IN            
WESTERN ND/SOUTHERN CANADA HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SNOW MOST OF THE NIGHT              
AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE NE CWA BY LATE             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS                        
AREA...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE              
SW THEN W THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP               
ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NEXT WAVE IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN                  
SLIDES SE ON WED NIGHT. RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM AND                  
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. WEAK SFC HIGH AND            
MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THURS AND SHOULD BE A FAIRLY                
QUIET DAY. IT WILL BE COLDER AS A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS             
THE CWA BEHIND WED NIGHT SYSTEM.                                                
TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE AS QUICK MOVING WAVES WILL BRING               
SHORT PERIODS OF WAA AND CAA THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.                
DID NOT WANT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL PERIODS             
GET CLOSER AND INFLUENCE OF WAA/CAA CAN BE BETTER DEFINED.                      
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
MODELS AGREE BETTER NOW ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                
AREA AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.               
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW                   
PRESSURE AREA...THE MODELS AGREE MORE THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE TO             
THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF TRACK WAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE               
ND/SD BORDER WHILE THE NAM AT 84 HOURS HAD THE SURFACE LOW                      
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THUS...KEPT A 20 POP FOR SNOW               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND THAT MAY BE A STRETCH IF THE            
LOW TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH. ALSO...FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE            
INTERESTING IN THE WARM SECTOR IF THE SFC LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH.             
TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                      
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR IN BEHIND THE LOW               
WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND                 
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL            
AFFECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. IT               
LOOKS AS IF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST             
AS COLDER AIR HOLDS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.                            
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TT/DM                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
300 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SAW SOME OPEN SKY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH ALLOWED             
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY. AFTER SOME LIGHT MORNING                
FOG...ANTICIPATE THE SAME TODAY...WITH INITIAL LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT            
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS             
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A THIN LAYER OF COOLER AIR REMAINS AT AROUND 5000            
FT...AND WILL SLOWLY MIX AWAY. A WEAK REMNANT BOUNDARY PERSISTS                 
OFFSHORE...EVIDENT ON IR SATELLITE...AND SHOULD ALSO ERODE WITH                 
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. THE BELOW PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL SUMMARIZES              
THE CURRENT FORECAST WELL. STILL EXPECTING A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT ON            
THURSDAY...AS A ZONAL H5 PATTERN WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE JUST                   
UPSTREAM KEEPS THE MAIN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER GLIDING TOWARD THE                 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY POPS IN              
THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AS A RESULT. MAINLY             
THOUGH IT WILL BE CLOUD COVER THAT HELPS KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY             
LOWER DURING THE DAY...AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE NOT PROGGED TO              
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LATE WEEK AIR MASS.                             
THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR THE FRONT EXPECTED THIS COMING                     
SATURDAY. THICKNESSES WILL DECREASE AS A CANADIAN AIR MASS PLUNGES              
SOUTH...AND WITH A ZONAL H5 PATTERN...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS               
EASILY DEFLECTED. THE WEATHER BEHIND SATURDAY'S FRONT WILL TEND TO              
RESEMBLE THAT EXPERIENCED THIS LAST WEEKEND...WITH AN INCREASED                 
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...OVERCAST SKIES AND COOL                     
TEMPERATURES. PROGGED TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ONLY A MODERATE COOL                 
DOWN...WITH 50S FOR NEXT MONDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED            
TO SEE THE MODELS ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT DOWNWARD OVER TIME...AS             
THEY PICK UP AND COMPENSATE FOR THE SHALLOW AIR MASS.                           
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED EAST WINDS NEAR 2 KNOTS GUSTING TO                
NEAR 4 KNOTS WITH SEAS AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 01               
CST/07 UTC. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO            
WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS TO THE              
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN              
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS LOW                
CLOUDS AND FOG PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS               
WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING             
HOURS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...810 PM CST MON FEB 20 2006...RUC 200MB WIND/WIND             
SPEED ANALYSIS INDICATED SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN              
UNITED STATES WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF              
THE COUNTRY EXCEPT OVER CALIFORNIA WHERE A 500MB LOW CONTINUES TO               
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SHALLOW COLD AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED            
STATES HAS MOVED AWAY FROM WEST TX THIS EVENING AS WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST TX. MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS                   
INDICATED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED ACROSS A SURFACE LOW                 
OFFSHORE THE LOWER TX COAST AND COASTAL BEND. ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED             
TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TX AND HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE              
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT WITH NEARLY SATURATED AIR BELOW                 
850MB AS INDICATED ON 00Z KBRO SOUNDING. WILL UPDATE ZONES/GRIDS TO             
ADJUST CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THE NEXT               
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END             
OF THE WEEK AS LATEST GFS RUN PROGS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH              
TX THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY               
MOVING EASTWARD. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TX                
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED                   
STATES. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE END OF              
THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW            77 66 82 66 75 65 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
BROWNSVILLE        78 65 84 65 78 63 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
FALFURRIAS         79 59 82 59 72 58 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
HARLINGEN          79 66 85 63 76 63 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
HEBBRONVILLE       79 59 84 61 74 58 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
MCALLEN            79 65 86 65 79 64 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
PORT ISABEL        77 65 78 66 76 65 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
RIO GRANDE CITY    81 60 88 64 77 61 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 65 78 66 74 66 / 00 00 00 05 20 20                        
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
54/66                                                                           
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1025 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                     
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND                   
CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND SCATTERED SNOW                    
SHOWERS. ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE               
REGION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF                     
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS                   
ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION               
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE /REST OF TODAY/...                                                      
UPDATED SNOW AMT & POPS GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RADAR               
& SATL TRENDS. LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN SOONER THAN GUIDANCE                        
SUGGESTED. DECIDED TO MOVE TIMING UP BY 3 HRS & EXTENDED AREAL                  
COVERAGE USING LATEST RUC & 06Z NAM. MASSAGED WINDS FIELDS. NO                  
OTHER CHGS MADE. ZFP ALREADY SENT W/THE CHGS.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
NO CHGS.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/ISSUED 256 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                         
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH REGARD                 
TO THE WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY.                
NAM/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SYSTEM. WILL GO LIKELY                 
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON                    
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WILL ALSO CARRY CHANCE POPS ALL THE WAY TO               
THE COAST BASED ON POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE SHOWN                
BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH                 
ABOUT AN INCH OR SO WITH LESS THAN AN INCH CLOSER TO THE COAST.                 
THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO GIVE WAY TO                   
PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT ALL AREAS AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS              
THE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH                    
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM                         
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.                                                      
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
SHORT AND MED RANGE MODELS MSLY AGREE THAT AFT A WEAK S/WV                      
PASSAGE WED NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE SCT FLURRIES ACROSS THE FA...A               
SOMEWHAT STRONGER CAN CLIPPER S/WV WILL APCH THU AND BRING LGT                  
SNFL TO THE FA THU NGT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SEMI                  
ARCTIC FRONT LATE FRI. SKY...POP AND WX GRIDS WERE REFINED TO                   
INCLUDE THE LATEST MODEL TIMING ON THESE TWO EVENTS...WITH THE                  
BIGGEST CHG INCREASING POPS LATE THU INTO THU EVE INTO THE LIKELY               
CATEGORY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SNFL FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE              
FLUFFY...WITH FAIRLY HIGH SNOW/LQD EQV RATIOS...BUT ITS A LITTLE                
ERLY TO SPECIFY THIS DETAIL ACCURATELY ATTM IN THE FCST.                        
AFTERWARDS...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT S/WV IS SLATED TO AFFECT OUR FA               
LATE NEXT WEEKEND. MED RANGE MODELS CONT TO SHOW A SPECTRUM OF                  
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM.                                                
MODIFIED HI/LOW TEMPS IN THE LONGER TERM TO INCLUDE GFS MEAN ENS                
DATA. USED A BLEND OF 00Z ETA12/GFS80 DATA FOR WINDS FOR PDS 4                  
THRU 6 AND THEN WENT SPECIFICALLY TO GFS80 DATA TO THE END OF DAY               
4 WHERE WINDS WERE DOVE-TAILED INTO HPC WINDS FROM LAST FCST UPDATE.            
AVIATION...                                                                     
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING. CONDITIONS                  
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOWERING                 
CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW.                                               
MARINE...                                                                       
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AND NO SIG HEADLINES                    
ANTICIPATED IN THE LONGER TERM ATTM.                                            
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
ME...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...HEWITT                                                                 
SHORT TERM/MARINE...DUDA                                                        
LONG TERM/MARINE...NOUHAN                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
904 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST PASSING THROUGH THE              
SAGINAW VALLEY. 12Z RUC INDICATES GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE DEPTH UP TO 8KFT             
ACROSS THE THUMB...MUCH DRIER AND WITH LOWER INVERSIONS TO THE SOUTH            
AS SEEN BY 12Z DTX AND 13Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. LIFT AND CONVERGENCE               
HELPING TO INTENSIFY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DECENT             
AREA OF >20DBZ RETURNS APPARENT ON THE DTX RADAR AND BAX/CFS                    
REPORTING MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. UPDATED TO ADD SCATTERED                
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. REFLECTIVITIES ARE LIGHT              
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS THEY ARE ACROSS HURON COUNTY...                  
HOWEVER ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR THE TRI CITIES AS THE MBS/HYX               
NORTHWEST WIND INDICATES THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH. ALSO             
EXTENDED FLURRIES SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT I-94 GIVEN ORIENTATION OF                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER GIVEN THE DEGREE             
OF DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...638 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                          
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS                         
MORNING...AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AT                        
KMBS/KFNT...WITH CLOUDS INDUCED BY COMBINATION OF TROUGH LIFT                   
EARLY...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM LATE WINTER DIURNAL BOOST                       
COMBINED WITH LAKE MI ENHANCED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED OR            
FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED                     
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME               
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. FLURRIES MENTIONED AT              
KMBS/KFNT THIS MORNING...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MENTIONED               
DUE TO WEAK RADAR TRENDS...WEAK DYNAMICS...AND FEEBLE MOISTURE.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                         
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH            
MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT.             
AT 500 MB...NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETREATING EAST THIS                
MORNING...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE TODAY...ANOTHER WEAKER             
TROUGH REACHING NORTHERN LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.                             
MODEL QPF FIELDS RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. RUC/GFS/WRFXX SHOW              
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY MAINLY THIS MORNING...THEN DRY                   
TONIGHT...WHEREAS NAM/NGM DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
RESIDUAL VERY MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT DEPARTING EARLY                
THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WHILE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE            
SLIGHT AT BEST TODAY AND SLIGHT TO MODEST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WEAK INTO THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT                  
MAINLY NORTH. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAK AT BEST LATE TONIGHT...AS             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO DIP TO 20 TO 30 MB IN THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY PROXIMITY.                                                               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRETTY LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AS WELL. 850 TO            
500 MB MOISTURE VERY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LOWER MOISTURE                
MODESTLY GOOD TODAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER TONIGHT.                              
WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NO PRECIPITATION                   
MENTION STRONGER THAN FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT MENTION               
PRIMARILY NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE                  
MICHIGAN TRAJECTORIES. GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN                    
YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                   
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN               
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL START TO FLATTEN...CAUSING THE               
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY.              
BY THIS WEEKEND THE FLOW BUCKLES AGAIN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP            
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE            
WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                    
STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RETURN TO            
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                                        
THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO              
TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS AN             
OUTLIER SHOWING THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND            
BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                 
PREFER THE SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS                  
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE               
SETTING UP OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THIS TIME...MAKING IT             
HARD FOR THIS LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW YORK STATE. WILL               
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTH              
WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. AM NOT               
ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                 
SYSTEM WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR             
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET ON THURSDAY WILL                
DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO               
SEE TEMPS CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE 40 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                         
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE            
GFS NEVER SEEMS TO GET BACK ON TRACK AFTER THE THURSDAY                         
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS FOR THE                
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS SOMEWHERE               
IN BETWEEN. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES               
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE              
LOW BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK. GOOD UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT              
ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.                                            
A BLAST OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH                
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -18 TO -20C. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO              
MID 20S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ441..UNTIL NOON                   
             TODAY.                                                             
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....DWD                                                                
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
638 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS                         
MORNING...AND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON AT                        
KMBS/KFNT...WITH CLOUDS INDUCED BY COMBINATION OF TROUGH LIFT                   
EARLY...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM LATE WINTER DIURNAL BOOST                       
COMBINED WITH LAKE MI ENHANCED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BECOME SCATTERED OR            
FEW LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED                     
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST SOME               
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS ANTICIPATED. FLURRIES MENTIONED AT              
KMBS/KFNT THIS MORNING...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MENTIONED               
DUE TO WEAK RADAR TRENDS...WEAK DYNAMICS...AND FEEBLE MOISTURE.                 
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                         
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH            
MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT.             
AT 500 MB...NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETREATING EAST THIS                
MORNING...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE TODAY...ANOTHER WEAKER             
TROUGH REACHING NORTHERN LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.                             
MODEL QPF FIELDS RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. RUC/GFS/WRFXX SHOW              
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY MAINLY THIS MORNING...THEN DRY                   
TONIGHT...WHEREAS NAM/NGM DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
RESIDUAL VERY MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT DEPARTING EARLY                
THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WHILE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE            
SLIGHT AT BEST TODAY AND SLIGHT TO MODEST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WEAK INTO THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT                  
MAINLY NORTH. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAK AT BEST LATE TONIGHT...AS             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO DIP TO 20 TO 30 MB IN THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY PROXIMITY.                                                               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRETTY LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AS WELL. 850 TO            
500 MB MOISTURE VERY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LOWER MOISTURE                
MODESTLY GOOD TODAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER TONIGHT.                              
WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NO PRECIPITATION                   
MENTION STRONGER THAN FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT MENTION               
PRIMARILY NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE                  
MICHIGAN TRAJECTORIES. GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN                    
YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                   
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN               
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL START TO FLATTEN...CAUSING THE               
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY.              
BY THIS WEEKEND THE FLOW BUCKLES AGAIN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP            
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE            
WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                    
STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RETURN TO            
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                                        
THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO              
TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS AN             
OUTLIER SHOWING THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND            
BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                 
PREFER THE SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS                  
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE               
SETTING UP OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THIS TIME...MAKING IT             
HARD FOR THIS LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW YORK STATE. WILL               
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTH              
WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. AM NOT               
ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                 
SYSTEM WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR             
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET ON THURSDAY WILL                
DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO               
SEE TEMPS CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE 40 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                         
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE            
GFS NEVER SEEMS TO GET BACK ON TRACK AFTER THE THURSDAY                         
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS FOR THE                
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS SOMEWHERE               
IN BETWEEN. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES               
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE              
LOW BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK. GOOD UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT              
ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.                                            
A BLAST OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH                
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -18 TO -20C. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO              
MID 20S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ441..UNTIL NOON                   
             TODAY.                                                             
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
953 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES                  
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SHORTLY                
AND TAKE LIGHT RAINFALL WITH IT. RUC SHOWING CLEARING DURING THE                
AFTERNOON WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION.                  
WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO CURRENT FCST TO REMOVE MORNING                    
WORDING...OTHERWISE AFTERNOON TEMP FCST LOOKS FINE.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.                
STILL DEALING WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE TWEB                    
ROUTE. CIGS AT KPGV AND KISO HAVE COME UP TO MVFR DURING THE PAST               
HOUR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL TERMINALS MVFR BY 16Z. VFR              
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 3-5K FT                   
LINGERING THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS. FORECAST                 
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER               
ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...COLLINS                                                            
AVIATION...WINGENROTH                                                           
MARINE...WINGENROTH                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
901 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NW                     
ND...AND ASSOCIATED LIFT AND SNOW BAND IS DEVELOPING ON SCHEDULE.               
THE TRACK OF VORTICITY MAX AND 700MB TROUGH WILL COME ACROSS THE                
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD TARGET THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE                 
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATING SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL                 
SEE SOME ACCUMULATION...AND WILL BE INCREASING POPS INTO                        
CATEGORICAL REALMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AT LEAST. SATURATION IS                
TAKING SOME TIME THOUGH...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS STILL LOW OVER THE                 
AREA. DEWPOINTS IN CENTRAL ND ARE IN THE TEENS THOUGH...AND AS                  
THEY ADVECT OVER COOL AIRMASS LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE                  
AREA. RUC PICKS THIS SCENARIO UP THE BEST WITHIN THE FIRST 12                   
HOURS...AND WILL USE IT/S QPF FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. THEREFORE FEEL FAIRLY           
CONFIDENT OF SEEING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW BY AFTERNOON...WITH            
AN INCH...POSSIBLY 2 IN LOCALIZED AREAS IF SOME BANDING CAN OCCUR...            
WHICH IS POSSIBLE. WILL BE WATCHING SNOW BAND FOR THE NEXT                      
HOUR...AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPS                  
LOOK TO BE ON TARGET...AND ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED HERE.                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DK                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
945 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
VERY PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE               
U.S. EAST OF THE ROCKIES TODAY. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...A                       
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY NEAR GEORGIAN BAY            
AT 14Z IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD...REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE BY              
22/00Z.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER PVA/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON              
WILL BRING GENERALLY OVC CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA...BUT ONLY             
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM                
LAKE ONTARIO AND/OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT.  THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATES            
THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GOING FORECAST OF               
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS ON TARGET. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN            
ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS WILL RESULT IN LIKELY -SHSN TODAY...WITH             
A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GREENS AND 1-3                
INCHES IN THE NRN ADIRONDACKS. SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT TO LAKE EFFECT              
BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY               
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH PASSAGE            
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LAKE BAND SHOULD MIGRATE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST            
AREA. TIMING IN LATEST NAM/RUC FORECASTS SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD OCCUR             
BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. INFLUENCE OF LAKE MOISTURE AND MARGINAL                    
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED/LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS OF SNOW               
ACROSS SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY...PERHAPS UP TO 4 INCHES.                        
OVERALL WX...WINDS...TEMPS LOOK WELL-HANDLED BOTH IN THE GRIDS AND              
ZFP. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING ONLY TO               
INCREASE SKY COVER TO CLOUDY FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NWRN 2/3RDS              
OF FORECAST AREA.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 245 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006/                                            
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS ACRS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH               
SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. FIRST VORT NOW LOCATED ACRS THE WESTERN              
GREAT LAKES WL IMPACT FA TODAY WITH ANOTHER VORT OVER CENTRAL CANADA            
EXPECTED TO MV ACRS CWA ON THURSDAY. FIRST...PIECE OF ENERGY HAS                
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WL QUICKLY MOVE ACRS OUR FA TODAY. THE                     
SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTS TO BE SUPPRESSED ACRS THE SOUTHERN STATES                
WITH NO INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DUE TO CONFLUENT                
FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED AMPLIFICATION OF JET STREAM ENERGY.                      
CRNT RADAR CONTS TO SHOW WEAK BAND OF LES ACRS SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE             
AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES ATTM WITH SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. SOME                
LAKE ERIC INTERACTION IS HELPING TO ENHANCE RADAR RETURNS...BUT                 
BASED ON SFC OBS AND WEB CAMS LIMITED REDUCTION IN VIS IS NOTED AND             
ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THIS COMBINED WITH              
INCREASED LLVL SHEAR AHEAD OF NEXT S/W AND SOME LLVL WAA WL LET LAKE            
SNOW ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS PACKAGE.                                         
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                    
TODAY...FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS MOVES ACRS               
OUR FA. THE COMBINATION OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM                  
STRONG PVA AND FAVORABLE SW UPSLOPE FLW ACRS THE DACKS WITH SOME                
LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WESTERN CWA. IN                
ADDITION...WL MENTION LIKELY POPS THIS AFTN FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES              
OF THE GREEN MTNS AS WINDS BCM NW BEHIND SFC FRNT...EXPECT SOME                 
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. WL MENTION 1-3 INCHES FOR DACKS AND 1-2 INCHES             
FOR THE GREENS. OTHERWISE...PROGGED 85H TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 DEGREES                
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L30S VALLEYS TO MID              
20S IN THE MTNS. TONIGHT...WEAK UPSLOPE FLW CONT UNTIL 06Z ACRS                 
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS...THEN DEPTH OF MOISTURE DECREASES. WL             
MENTION LIKELY POPS EARLY WITH CHC POPS AFT MIDNIGHT...SOME LIGHT               
ACCUMULATION WL BE POSSIBLE. WEDS...WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO FA               
AND LLVL WAA DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTN. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -12C                
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 30S MOST LOCATIONS TO U20S IN THE MTNS. WL KEEP            
VALLEYS DRY...BUT WL BE SLIGHT TO CHC POPS IN THE MTNS BASED ON LLVL            
MOISTURE AND STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE RATES.                                      
WEDS NIGHT-THURS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAKING NEXT CLIPPER            
SYSTEM ACRS OUR FA LATE WEDS INTO THURS. THIS SYSTEM BASED ON VAPOR             
TRENDS HAS A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND BETTER LIFT                     
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET AND SFC CONVERGENCE. BASED ON RIBBON OF              
850-500MB OMEGA...GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BTWN 1000-500MB...AND                
FAVORABLE MOISTURE/OMEGA SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL WL MENTION LIKELY                
POPS MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WL TRIM POPS TO CHC ACRS CPV AND                 
SOUTHERN VT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -10C AND 925MB TEMPS NEAR -2C               
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 30S.                                                       
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS OUR FA ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPS                    
STRUGGLING IN THE 20S BASED ON NORTHERLY FLW AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS              
AROUND -15C. WL MENTION CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE MTNS ZNS                 
BASED ON NW UPSLOPE FLW...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE WL BE LIMITED. HIGH             
PRES AXIS QUICKLY SHIFT ACRS OUR FA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LLVL WAA               
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM. WL INCREASE            
CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...ALONG WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS                 
SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. MUCH COLD AIR IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO                  
MONDAY WITH                                                                     
TEMPS IN THE TEENS/20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 0F.                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL            
MOVE EAST AND BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER                  
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST FROM            
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION                 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE                   
SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS EARLY THIS                   
MORNING. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN GREAT                 
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER               
ACTIVITY FROM LAKE ONTARIO WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES              
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN                    
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACKS. RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME                  
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN                     
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHER                 
TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE                 
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING               
MAINLY...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS            
THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT  TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME POCKETS OF MVFR               
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREEN                
MOUNTAINS TODAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BANACOS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA                                        
302 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF BEYOND THE COASTAL                   
WATERS IS NOW RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AND IS BECOMING              
LESS DISTINCT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. WEDGE OF COOL AIR AHEAD OF                
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO THIN OUT WITH HOLES APPEARING WHERE SUN IS              
BREAKING THROUGH. EXPECT THIS WARM FRONT TO REACH THE COAST THIS                
EVENING PER LATEST RUC.                                                         
ALONG WITH A BRIEF WARMING TREND, RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON               
WEDNESDAY THANKS TO A MOISTURE BUILDUP FROM THE PACIFIC COURTESY                
OF A STRENGHENING SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS MOISTURE WILL ENCOUNTER                 
LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO                 
MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                                                   
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC WILL BRING A STALL TO THIS FRONT IN THE              
NORTHERN GULF...SETTING UP ANOTHER OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH LIGHT                
RAIN AND COOL TEMPS OVER THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.                        
WE MAY BE FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SUN LATE THIS WEEKEND                    
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS DRIVEN DUE TO              
A SURGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE MID              
LEVELS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AS THE UPPER FLOW OFF THE                   
PACIFIC IS SPLIT. WENT WITH THE GFS WHICH SHOWS MOST OF THE                     
PACIFIC ENERGY RIDING NORTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE                   
DIGGING TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.        
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO BACK OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY               
DUE TO SEA FOG. THE SHELF WATER TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED TO THE UPPER               
50S. RECENT EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT MID 50 WATER TEMPS ARE MORE               
CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP TNITE DUE TO              
CAPPING AND NVA. WENT HIGHER ON TEMPS WITH THE WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY              
DESPITE THE CLOUDCOVER FROM THE INCREASING MOISTURE. H85 TEMPS                  
HAVE ALREADY STARTED A RUNUP DESPITE THE SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS                   
BELOW. 12 TO 15C TEMPS AT H85 WITH 76F WATER TEMPS FURTHER OUT IN               
THE GULF COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S FOR THE                    
SOUTHERN ZONES...UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH...A WELCOME CHANGE. DUE TO              
THE SLOWER TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT...KEPT A BIT WARMER THAN                    
GUIDANCE THROUGH WED NIGHT.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO                  
LIFR BY SUNRISE IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WILL GO WITH JUST PATCHY FOG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.                 
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
KLCH  59  76  60  65 /   0  40  40  40                                          
KBPT  59  77  60  65 /   0  40  40  30                                          
KAEX  53  67  52  53 /   0  50  50  50                                          
KLFT  59  78  61  64 /   0  40  40  40                                          
&&                                                                              
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LA...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
11                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
402 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY                                             
12Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE                
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...BETWEEN SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST              
ONTARIO AND UPSTREAM JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF                   
COAST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS JUST CROSSING LAKE MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM               
LOW/TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. VIS SATELLITE SHOW CU HAS MIXED OUT               
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH VFR CLOUDS MAINTAINING ACROSS THE                
NORTHERN CWA DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE MOISTURE AND BETTER                   
INSTABILITY UNDER THE CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH.                               
NAM/GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER                 
CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED WEAKER OVER THE            
LAST COUPLE RUNS. HOWEVER THE 15Z/18Z RUC INITIALIZATIONS ARE                   
STRONGER/MORE COMPACT...WHICH LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH WATER VAPOR                
IMAGERY. WHILE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS WEAK TO MODERATE...MOISTURE                  
REMAINS PRETTY MARGINAL...LIMITED BY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE                   
ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE OVERALL              
SETUP LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE SYSTEM THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE               
CWA THIS MORNING. A MODEST AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPED IN GOOD LOW-LEVEL             
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AGAIN              
FOR WEDNESDAY...ENOUGH TO ADD A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN                  
CWA...WITH FLURRIES TO THE SOUTH. DRY ENOUGH I-94 SOUTH TO KEEP DRY             
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FRONTAL TIMING LOOKS TO BE CLOSER            
TO 18Z...SO WILL CARRY PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY WITHOUT TRYING TO ADD             
A MORNING OR AFTERNOON TIMING. WITH THE SLOWER TREND WILL ALSO                  
REMOVE MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD.                             
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOWS LAST NIGHT WERE IN THE LOW/MID 20S.                  
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT PICKS UP OVERNIGHT AFTER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS              
SWINGS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...LIMITING THE DURATION              
OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE INCREASED LOWS A COUPLE                  
DEGREES...SIMILAR TO THAT WHICH OCCURRED LAST NIGHT. ALSO CARRIES               
LOWS DURING THE EVENING...WITH TEMPS PRETTY STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH               
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY                                    
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY A BRIEF WARMUP PRIOR TO THE RETURN OF             
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR. A RESPECTABLE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL SINK            
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE WEEKEND...USHERING IN A                  
PATTERN SHIFT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE                    
AMPLIFIED...RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGH DIGGING            
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE US IN A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW             
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.                   
PREDOMINATELY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING SEVERAL FAST                 
MOVING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS                
FINALLY TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT             
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GIVEN THE              
LATEST GFS TREND TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK (ACROSS THE                      
U.P.)...WE WILL LEND MORE CREDIT TO THE NAM WHICH HAS BEEN                      
CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH LOOKS             
GOOD CONSIDERING THE FAST ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...THE NAM            
IS WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THE                 
ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH                
PRECIP WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WEAK RIDGING             
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP US DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AND                 
ALTHOUGH THE NAM KEEPS US DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ON             
THURSDAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK            
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS (COLD FRONT.) BREEZY CONDITIONS               
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND             
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.                                                      
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS             
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COLDER AIR             
FILTERING OVER THE LAKES (850 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -14C) WILL               
KEEP US MOSTLY CLOUDY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT             
(STRATOCU DECK.) MOISTURE ABOVE 850 WILL STRIP OFF TO THE EAST AS               
WAVE DEPARTS. THE ANTICYLONIC FLOW AND LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE              
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AT BAY...WHICH IS             
IN LINE WITH THE WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFERED BY THE NAM (GFS              
850 TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO -16C.) SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO               
DRY US OUT AND BRING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY.                              
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES ON THE FRIDAY              
NIGHT/SATURDAY WAVE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW               
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION (850 TEMPS RISING            
TO NEAR 0C NEAR THE OHIO BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING) AND ASSOCIATED             
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SHOT OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.            
A STRONG DRY SLOT WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY.                
THIS WILL HELP TO CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL TOTALS...ALTHOUGH THE LIFT               
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THE CWA TO GET AN INCH OR TWO OF              
NEW SNOW BEFORE THE DRY SLOT WORKS IN ON SATURDAY.                              
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO KICK UP THE WINDS AND MAKE FOR A BREEZY                   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDER WAY IN               
TRANSITIONING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE            
AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE                 
MODELS GOING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND MORE FLAT.             
EVEN WITH THIS DIFFERENCE...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE TROUGH              
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIED ENOUGH FOR ARCTIC AIR TO RETURN.               
THIS GIVES US PLENTY OF CONFIDENCE ON A COLD SUNDAY THROUGH                     
TUESDAY...AS 850 TEMPS CRASH TO -20C. THIS AMOUNT OF COLD AIR                   
ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS               
THROUGH MONDAY. ONE INTERESTING NOTE FOR MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAS               
NOW...FOR THE FIRST TIME...INTRODUCED A WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO                
MICHIGAN. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND              
STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. GIVEN THAT THIS IS THE             
FIRST AND ONLY INDICATION (NO OTHER MODEL SUPPORTS THIS AS OF YET)              
WE WILL KEEP FORECAST AS IS FOR NOW.                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST                                               
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS LOWER              
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR                    
WEDNESDAY. SOLID MVFR CIGS ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONT HAVE GIVEN WAY             
TO MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED VFR CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF CU                 
UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                      
NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...            
WILL CARRY BROKEN CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ACROSS FAR                 
SOUTHERN LOWER ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT IN AN AREA OF                   
DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY BRIEFLY FILL                
BACK IN...BEFORE THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT ALL TOGETHER BY MID-LATE                
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS ON                 
TRACK TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT AREA OF MID CLOUDS                  
EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA AND              
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. CROSS SECTIONS/PLAN VIEWS AGAIN SHOW BETTER             
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND                
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING CIGS VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRAVENDER                                                          
LONG TERM....SHULER                                                             
AVIATION...BRAVENDER                                                            
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1235 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD ACROSS LOWER              
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR                    
WEDNESDAY. SOLID MVFR CIGS ALONG THE DEPARTING FRONT HAVE GIVEN WAY             
TO MORE DIURNALLY ENHANCED VFR CLOUDS. GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF CU                 
UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                      
NORTHWESTERN CWA WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...            
WILL CARRY BROKEN CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ACROSS FAR                 
SOUTHERN LOWER ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO MIX OUT IN AN AREA OF                   
DIVERGENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS AREA MAY BRIEFLY FILL                
BACK IN...BEFORE THE MOISTURE MIXES OUT ALL TOGETHER BY MID-LATE                
AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTHWEST OF LAKE WINNIPEG IS ON                 
TRACK TO SWING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DECENT AREA OF MID CLOUDS                  
EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA AND              
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. CROSS SECTIONS/PLAN VIEWS AGAIN SHOW BETTER             
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND                
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING CIGS VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.                
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...904 AM EST TUE FEB 21 2006                                            
SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST PASSING THROUGH THE              
SAGINAW VALLEY. 12Z RUC INDICATES GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWINGS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.            
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE DEPTH UP TO 8KFT             
ACROSS THE THUMB...MUCH DRIER AND WITH LOWER INVERSIONS TO THE SOUTH            
AS SEEN BY 12Z DTX AND 13Z TAMDAR SOUNDINGS. LIFT AND CONVERGENCE               
HELPING TO INTENSIFY PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH A DECENT             
AREA OF >20DBZ RETURNS APPARENT ON THE DTX RADAR AND BAX/CFS                    
REPORTING MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. UPDATED TO ADD SCATTERED                
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. REFLECTIVITIES ARE LIGHT              
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AS THEY ARE ACROSS HURON COUNTY...                  
HOWEVER ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES FOR THE TRI CITIES AS THE MBS/HYX               
NORTHWEST WIND INDICATES THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH. ALSO             
EXTENDED FLURRIES SOUTH THROUGH ABOUT I-94 GIVEN ORIENTATION OF                 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER GIVEN THE DEGREE             
OF DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                         
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS DEPICTING WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT/TROUGH            
MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING...THEN WEAK RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON             
INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING LATE TONIGHT.             
AT 500 MB...NORTHERN LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH RETREATING EAST THIS                
MORNING...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ITS WAKE TODAY...ANOTHER WEAKER             
TROUGH REACHING NORTHERN LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.                             
MODEL QPF FIELDS RATHER MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT. RUC/GFS/WRFXX SHOW              
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY MAINLY THIS MORNING...THEN DRY                   
TONIGHT...WHEREAS NAM/NGM DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
RESIDUAL VERY MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT DEPARTING EARLY                
THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...WHILE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE            
SLIGHT AT BEST TODAY AND SLIGHT TO MODEST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE WEAK INTO THIS MORNING...SLIGHT AGAIN LATE TONIGHT                  
MAINLY NORTH. 280K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEAK AT BEST LATE TONIGHT...AS             
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO DIP TO 20 TO 30 MB IN THE SAGINAW             
VALLEY PROXIMITY.                                                               
RELATIVE HUMIDITY PRETTY LIMITED FOR MEASURABLE SNOW AS WELL. 850 TO            
500 MB MOISTURE VERY MEAGER THROUGH TONIGHT...AND LOWER MOISTURE                
MODESTLY GOOD TODAY BEFORE TRENDING DRIER TONIGHT.                              
WILL FOLLOW IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH NO PRECIPITATION                   
MENTION STRONGER THAN FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THAT MENTION               
PRIMARILY NORTH WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE                  
MICHIGAN TRAJECTORIES. GOING A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN                    
YESTERDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISSUED 430 AM EST TUE                   
DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN               
PLACE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL START TO FLATTEN...CAUSING THE               
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRIDAY.              
BY THIS WEEKEND THE FLOW BUCKLES AGAIN AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SETS UP            
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE            
WESTERN CONUS WITH A TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN                    
STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN RETURN TO            
BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL              
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.                                                        
THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN                
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO              
TRACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE 00Z/21 GFS IS AN             
OUTLIER SHOWING THIS LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND            
BRINGING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.                 
PREFER THE SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE MAJORITY OF OTHER MODELS                  
SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE               
SETTING UP OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CONUS AT THIS TIME...MAKING IT             
HARD FOR THIS LOW TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NEW YORK STATE. WILL               
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY IN THE NORTH              
WITH A PERIOD OF WEAK LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH. AM NOT               
ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS                 
SYSTEM WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR             
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET ON THURSDAY WILL                
DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING BUT WOULD EXPECT THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TO               
SEE TEMPS CLIMBING TO JUST ABOVE 40 AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                         
WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE            
GFS NEVER SEEMS TO GET BACK ON TRACK AFTER THE THURSDAY                         
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE GFS FOR THE                
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WITH THE REST OF THE MODELS SOMEWHERE               
IN BETWEEN. HAVE REMOVED PRECIP FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE                   
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES               
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE              
LOW BRINGING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW THIS WEEK. GOOD UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT TO SEE SOME LIGHT              
ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY.                                            
A BLAST OF COLD AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH                
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -18 TO -20C. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW                 
NORMAL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO              
MID 20S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH                
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA AND THE                      
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
316 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)                       
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE MAINLY FROM THE TOP                
DOWN WITH THICK(3K FT)TEMP INVERSION HUGGING THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD            
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS QSTNRY COASTAL              
FRONT EDGES SLOWLY NWD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN            
SETTING UP. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF AR AND            
THIS AREA SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.                              
18Z RUC INDICATES THAT THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN TO ABOUT 1.5K FEET             
TONIGHT AND IF ANY CLEAR "HOLES" DEVELOP IN THE LAYER...THEY WILL               
PROBABLY FILL BACK IN WITH FOG RATHER QUICKLY. HAVE OPTED NOT TO                
MENTION FOG FOR THIS FORECAST HOWEVER THE SRN PTNS OF THE CWFA COULD            
SEE SOME AND MIGHT HAVE TO BE ADDED IF RAIN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN WE           
THINK.                                                                          
MODELS BRING NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH RAIN              
BREAKING OUT FIRST FOR LOCATIONS N OF I-20 AND THEN SPREADING SWD               
ACROSS MOST OF FA BY MORNING. LOOK FOR WEAK BOUNDARY(INVERTED TROF)             
TO EMERGE ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AS MID LEVEL GULF INFLOW IMPROVES TO             
HELP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PROCESSES FROM 295-310K LEVELS. WILL                
KEEP HIGHEST POPS NRN AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND PRECIP AS LIGHT FOR NOW             
UNDER THE EVER-PRESENT SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET LIVING OVER THE              
GULF STATES.                                                                    
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE-BASED BOUNDARY STALLED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 84             
TO I-10 CORRIDORS WEDNESDAY WILL ATTEMPT TO EDGE NWD. LOW LEVEL WARM            
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES WITH BETTER MOISTURE(PWATS RISE TO NEAR 1.5"            
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING). SOME LIMITED MOSTLY-ELEVATED INSTABILITY                 
RETURNS WITH PROGGED MLCAPES ACROSS SRN ZONES OF 100J/KG(GFS)/                  
700J/KG(NAM)... K INDEXES 30-34...AND 7-500MB LAPSE RATES 6.25C.                
LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO                    
WEDNESDAY EVENING MOVING QUICKLY ENEWD THROUGH 325-328K 850MB THETA             
E AXIS. EXPECT LOCAL QPF TO REACH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WHILE MOST               
LOCATIONS STAY IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH RANGE 18Z WED TO             
12Z THURSDAY./40/                                                               
LONGER TERM (THURSDAY NEXT TUESDAY)...                                          
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. PATTERN SHIFT ON THE            
FAR HORIZON LOOKS TO BRING US AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE               
CLOUDS/WET BY SUNDAY. BUT...UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MORE "BLAH". AT LEAST           
IT WILL PROBABLY A LITTLE WARMER VARIETY OF YUCKY-NESS AS THE STAGNANT          
AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS ONCE OVER THE REGION MODIFIES BY FRIDAY.             
IF ONLY THE SUN WOULD SHINE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD PROBABLY               
NOT HAVE TOO HARD A TIME GETTING UP INTO THE 60S. BUT...ALAS...THE              
SUN WILL BE HARD TO FIND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DISTURBED           
SOUTHERLY STREAM REMAINS OVERHEAD AND THE NOW-RELENTING INVERSION               
BELOW 500 MB GETS RE-INVIGORATED BY ANOTHER COOL PUSH THURSDAY. THE             
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AFTER TOMORROW WILL COME FRIDAY INTO EARLY                
SATURDAY...BUT PATCHES OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED AT ANY              
POINT ACROSS THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.                      
FORTUNATELY...NO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER            
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ON TAP THROUGH THE EXTENDED. POP NUMBERS WERE               
KEPT NEAR LATEST 00Z MEX GUIDANCE...BUT I DID BUMP UP THOSE NUMBERS             
SOME 10 TO 15 POINTS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS             
ARGUE THAT MOIST RETURN FLOW COULD PRECEDE THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE IN           
OUR AREA BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE TRICKY...ALTHOUGH I                
STILL DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM 00Z MEX (AND THUS THE PREVIOUS                     
FORECAST). HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH            
60S POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM            
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ALTHOUGH LIKELY CHILLING DOWN BELOW FREEZING             
FOR A NIGHT OR TWO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT CLEARS US OUT FINALLY             
THIS WEEKEND. FINALLY...NO WINTRY WEATHER (IN TERMS OF PRECIP) IS               
EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THIS                
FORECAST PACKAGE./BB/                                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MOST LOCATIONS MANAGED TO BREAK THROUGH TO MVFR CEILINGS BY MID                 
AFTERNOON AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IFR                  
CONDITIONS RETURN 04-08Z TONIGHT THROUGH 16Z WEDNESDAY. ANY SPOTS               
THAT COULD POSSIBLY SEE CLOUDS BREAK OUT THIS EVENING WILL BE                   
VULNERABLE TO QUICK FOG FORMATION AND LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.                
HOWEVER EXPECT MOST VISIBILITIES IN DEVELOPING RAIN SETUP TO STAY               
2-4SM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING./40/                                             
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
JACKSON       49  59  48  59 /  71  91  79  21                                  
MERIDIAN      51  62  47  59 /  60  82  87  21                                  
VICKSBURG     49  56  47  60 /  70  94  76  20                                  
HATTIESBURG   53  69  53  64 /  37  57  82  33                                  
NATCHEZ       52  61  48  63 /  51  85  81  27                                  
GREENVILLE    44  49  43  57 /  84  97  48  13                                  
GREENWOOD     43  50  43  55 /  90  97  50  12                                  
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
40/50                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
327 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                               
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN                    
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH TEXAS. AREA RADARS               
SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT ECHOES OVER SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHERN             
ARKANSAS SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW             
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON             
TO SALLISAW (E OK).                                                             
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES                    
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE INFO AND MODEL TRENDS WITH            
RESPECT TO LAYER RH PROGS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LOW CHANCES FOR               
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL DROP MENTION OF LIGHT                   
RAIN/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                   
ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE                
SHORT TERM WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA               
COAST TODAY GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS                
AVAILABLE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE                    
SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR OUT IN WESTERLY FLOW BEFORE REACHING THE                   
CENTRAL U.S.. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS DRY PACIFIC HIGH                 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND SURFACE FRONT ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST            
BLOCKS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.                                            
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION                                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT LATELY WITH CONTINUING            
THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE            
ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND WHERE THE UPPER             
LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE THE MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HPC               
SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL                     
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE COOLEST              
AIR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS WITH NEAR NORMAL                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE ON SATURDAY              
ALSO REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY              
FORECAST EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LATER SHIFTS               
WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE MOISTURE DEPTH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE                
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS            
THE THERMAL GRADIENT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS            
MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW. TIME WILL TELL! JLT              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A                 
LINE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. RUC/NAM 925 MB RH FORECASTS SHOW HUMIDITIES ABOVE 80                 
PERCENT CLIPPING SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SO WILL CARRY             
SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT KJLN AND FROM                
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT KSGF. OTHERWISE WILL CARRY MID             
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS                        
EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO DROP WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM MID             
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE            
AREA.                                                                           
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
259 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...                                                       
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN                    
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH TEXAS. AREA RADARS               
SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF LIGHT ECHOES OVER SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHERN             
ARKANSAS SPREADING TO THE NORTHEAST. AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW             
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG A LINE FROM HARRISON             
TO SALLISAW (E OK).                                                             
MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES                    
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE INFO AND MODEL TRENDS WITH            
RESPECT TO LAYER RH PROGS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LOW CHANCES FOR               
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN                       
ZONES...WITH LIGHT RAIN/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL MO AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN            
TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING.                                                      
ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE                
SHORT TERM WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA               
COAST TODAY GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIP IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE IS                
AVAILABLE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE                    
SHORTWAVE WILL SHEAR OUT IN WESTERLY FLOW BEFORE REACHING THE                   
CENTRAL U.S.. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AND NEAR NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS DRY PACIFIC HIGH                 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION...AND SURFACE FRONT ALONG NORTHERN GULF COAST            
BLOCKS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.                                            
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM DISCUSSION                                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT LATELY WITH CONTINUING            
THE MAIN TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WITH A LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE            
ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND WHERE THE UPPER             
LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ARE THE MAIN               
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED WITH HPC               
SCENARIO WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL                     
PLAINS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE COOLEST              
AIR SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS WITH NEAR NORMAL                
ACROSS SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.                                    
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE ON SATURDAY              
ALSO REMAINS IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY              
FORECAST EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. LATER SHIFTS               
WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE MOISTURE DEPTH AND THE STRENGTH OF THE                 
ISENTROPIC LIFT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE                
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS            
THE THERMAL GRADIENT BECOMES A QUESTION MARK BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THIS            
MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW. TIME WILL TELL! JLT              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A                 
LINE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. RUC/NAM 925 MB RH FORECASTS SHOW HUMIDITIES ABOVE 80                 
PERCENT CLIPPING SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SO WILL CARRY             
SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT KJLN AND FROM                
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT KSGF. OTHERWISE WILL CARRY MID             
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS                        
EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO DROP WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM MID             
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE            
AREA.                                                                           
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1155 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION (135 AM)...                                                         
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 EARLY                
TUESDAY WITH THE CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS                
FROM THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RATHER BENIGN SURFACE              
PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN               
ARKANSAS. STRATUS THAT LINGERED INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE OZARKS              
HAD FINALLY DISSIPATED EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER LIGHT FOG HAD BEGUN               
TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER              
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.                                   
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS             
WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS PROGGED TO                 
IMPACT THE REGION.                                                              
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY INCLUDE            
AT LEAST PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR                
NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH THE HELP OF MORE             
SUNSHINE. HOWEVER EXITING SNOW COVER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI               
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THAT AREA.                                       
A SUBTLE AND INCREASINGLY SHEARED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE               
REGION TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK INTO THE            
AREA THIS EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS SLIM AT            
BEST AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND BEST...ALBEIT WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT              
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FAR                 
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES TONIGHT.               
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER              
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS                
PROGGED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.                                                 
THE SHORTWAVE NOW OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT             
EASTWARD BY LATE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF              
THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE STRONGER AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH DEEPER             
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO             
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL               
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.                                                           
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING                 
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.                                      
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR 18Z TAFS...AREA OF STRATUS EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A                 
LINE FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS                   
AFTERNOON. RUC/NAM 925 MB RH FORECASTS SHOW HUMIDITIES ABOVE 80                 
PERCENT CLIPPING SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SO WILL CARRY             
SOME TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AT KJLN AND FROM                
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AT KSGF. OTHERWISE WILL CARRY MID             
LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS                        
EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO DROP WINDS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM MID             
EVENING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK OVER THE            
AREA.                                                                           
TERRY                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1028 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.                
FRESHENED UP GRIDS FOR LATEST CONDITIONS...INCLUDING BUMPING UP POPS            
IN THE NW AS SNOW CONTINUES TO ENCROACH FROM THE NW. MODELS KEEP                
MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH TODAY...AND KEPT WITH THAT GENERALLY            
THINKING. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S IN MBG AS WINDS WENT              
WEST. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY                  
NEEDED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP SLIGHTLY.   KNUTSVIG                                   
.PREVIOUS FORECAST...                                                           
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT                                      
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW STILL ON TRACK TO SLIDE SE OUT OF             
CANADA THIS MORNING...MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO             
MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BEST LIFT NOTED BY GFS/NAM/RUC ACROSS NE              
CWA AND POPS WERE LEFT HIGHEST IN THIS LOCATION. SFC OBS UPSTREAM IN            
WESTERN ND/SOUTHERN CANADA HAVE SHOWN LIGHT SNOW MOST OF THE NIGHT              
AND EXPECT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT INTO THE NE CWA BY LATE             
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS                        
AREA...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE              
SW THEN W THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP               
ACROSS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. NEXT WAVE IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN                  
SLIDES SE ON WED NIGHT. RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM AND                  
CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STILL SEEM APPROPRIATE. WEAK SFC HIGH AND            
MID LEVEL RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR THURS AND SHOULD BE A FAIRLY                
QUIET DAY. IT WILL BE COLDER AS A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH ACROSS             
THE CWA BEHIND WED NIGHT SYSTEM.                                                
TEMPERATURES WERE CHANGED LITTLE AS QUICK MOVING WAVES WILL BRING               
SHORT PERIODS OF WAA AND CAA THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.                
DID NOT WANT TO STRAY TOO FAR FROM INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL PERIODS             
GET CLOSER AND INFLUENCE OF WAA/CAA CAN BE BETTER DEFINED.                      
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                              
MODELS AGREE BETTER NOW ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE                
AREA AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.               
WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW                   
PRESSURE AREA...THE MODELS AGREE MORE THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE TO             
THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF TRACK WAS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE               
ND/SD BORDER WHILE THE NAM AT 84 HOURS HAD THE SURFACE LOW                      
FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. THUS...KEPT A 20 POP FOR SNOW               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND THAT MAY BE A STRETCH IF THE            
LOW TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH. ALSO...FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE            
INTERESTING IN THE WARM SECTOR IF THE SFC LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH.             
TEMPERATURES MAY BE EVEN WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.                      
OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE STRONG CAA WILL OCCUR IN BEHIND THE LOW               
WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND                 
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL                     
TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.              
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL            
AFFECT THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION. IT               
LOOKS AS IF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST             
AS COLDER AIR HOLDS IN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.                            
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TT/DM                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
403 PM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM....SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE               
WARM FRONT HAS PENETRATED PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE                 
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE              
CWA TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH UPON               
THE NORTHERN CWA AS A COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CHIEF                
CONCERN WILL BE NIGHTTIME/MORNING ADVECTION FOG AS A SIGNIFICANT                
SST/DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL WILL EXIST. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG                   
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS THROUGH LATE                 
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE. SHOULD BE NEARLY A REPEAT            
PERFORMANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SOME SYNOPTIC-SCALE VERTICAL                    
MOTIONS MAY IMPEDE WIDESPREAD AREAL COVERAGE. BOUNDARY LAYER                    
FORCING AND MACROSCALE FORCING FROM WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES                 
SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCE/MARGINAL LOW-END CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWED THE RUC TEMPERATURES TONIGHT                
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES THEREAFTER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SIGNIFICANT SST/DEWPOINT DIFFERENTIAL WILL RESULT IN A                
SEA FOG EPISODE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE ACCORDINGLY ISSUED A              
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO       
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS DUE TO ADVECTION FOG ALONG THE                   
COAST EARLY THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD TO THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MID               
EVENING AND FINALLY TO THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AFTER                      
MIDNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.                   
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL                 
BUILD SE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH               
THE HELP OF A PACIFIC RIDGE AND A WEAK BROAD TROUGH SHIFTING ACROSS             
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN US. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WSW ACROSS            
THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE ENOUGH DENSITY            
TO SLOWLY PUSH A WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONT INTO THE COASTAL BEND ON                
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE              
COAST WITH A COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT DEVELOPING THROUGH FRI AS HIGH                
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY. GFS AND NAM BOTH                    
INDICATE LOTS OF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH             
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS. A 150KT+ JET                
STREAK IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND APPEARS ANY UPR               
S/WVS IN THE WSW FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK SO CURRENT INDICATIONS IS ANY            
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN LIGHT DESPITE HIGH MOISTURE               
VALUES. STILL...VERY HIGH MOISTURE VALUES (PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES)...              
THE BOUNDARY NEARBY...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL WARRANT SLT CHC/CHC              
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS THU THROUGH SAT WITH CLOUD COVER AND                
WEAK CAA HOLDING TEMPS DOWN SOME (ALTHOUGH NOTHING LIKE THIS PAST               
WEEKEND). GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER AND COLDER CANADIAN HIGH             
BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z RUN IS SHOWING THE                
HIGH CENTER PUSHING MORE SE ACROSS THE MID WEST AND INTO THE SERN US            
WHICH MAKES SINCE BASED ON THE UPR PATTERN AND AGREES MORE W/ THE               
00Z ECMWF. STILL...THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION                 
ENOUGH TO PROLONG THE COASTAL TROUGH AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE                     
SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PWS REMAIN VERY HIGH. UPR JET                  
STREAK WEAKENS BUT MAY SEE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE JET POSITION AND                
THEREFORE SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMIC LIFT SAT AND EARLY SUN BUT STILL              
NOT CONVINCED AND WILL KEEP POPS IN CHC/SCT CATEGORY SAT AND SUN                
(STILL REMAINING BELOW GUIDANCE). ALSO...GIVEN UNIMPRESSIVE UPR                 
DYNAMICS...NOT BUYING TO MUCH INTO HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS PROGGED BY GFS            
LAST FEW RUNS (1/4 TO 3/4 INCH SAT-EARLY SUN). MOISTURE IS VERY                 
IMPRESSIVE THOUGH GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND ANY SMALL DISTURBANCE              
COULD ENHANCE PRECIP THIS PERIOD AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY.                
GIVEN A WEAKER FRONT HAVE RAISED TEMPS CLOSER TO 12Z MEX VALUES OVER            
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH                  
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SERN US AND SRLY FLOW RETURNS.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  79  65  74  59  /  10  20  20  20  30                     
VICTORIA          60  75  62  67  55  /  10  20  30  30  40                     
LAREDO            58  83  65  73  57  /  10  20  20  20  30                     
ALICE             60  81  65  74  57  /  10  20  20  20  30                     
ROCKPORT          63  74  65  72  58  /  10  20  20  20  30                     
COTULLA           53  80  62  71  55  /  10  20  30  20  40                     
KINGSVILLE        62  80  65  76  60  /  10  20  20  20  30                     
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE           
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...               
     JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...                      
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...AND VICTORIA.                                     
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BB/85...SHORT-TERM                                                              
MG/88...LONG-TERM                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...WARM FRONT STILL OFFSHORE AS EXITING WEAK MID-LEVEL                   
SHORTWAVE OVER THE GLFMEX HAS IMPEDED IT/S PROGRESS. 12Z SOUNDING               
INDICATES THAT THE COLD DOME OF AIR IS VERY SHALLOW(~600FT DEEP)                
BUT UPSTREAM ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE FALLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT BE              
HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO YANK THE FRONT RAPIDLY NORTHWEST. THE RUC                   
MODEL CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION BEST AND WILL BE               
FOLLOWED CLOSELY. WILL CONFINE SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO THE              
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WHERE THE INVERSION WEAKENS                           
SUFFICIENTLY. WILL RETAIN PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS                
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS ADVECTION FOG WILL BECOME                  
MORE PROMINENT. CONFINED TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S                  
OVER THE EAST AND LOWER TO MID 70S WEST.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SLOWED WESTWARD PROGRESS OF WARM FRONT AND LOWERED WIND               
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON. RETAINED PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON                
HOURS OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEA FOG WILL BEGIN TO                   
BECOME MORE PROMINENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...IFR VSBYS/CIGS DUE TO FOG WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR                      
CONDITONS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 20Z                 
FROM LRD-COT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT                  
AND EXPECT IFR CONDS EAST OF HBV/COT LINE WITH MVFR CONDS IN LOW                
CLOUDS AT LRD. IN ADDITION...LIFR CONDS FOR VV001/1/4SM FG CAN BE               
EXPECTED OUT OVER PARTS OF THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEA                 
FOG DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY.                             
&&                                                                              
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...NONE.                                                                      
GM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BB/85...UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   tx