AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
915 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH              
OVER THE CENTRAL USA. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING S THROUGH WRN AL                  
CONTINUES TO MOVE E. THE SW PART OF THE LINE OVER LA AND SW MS                  
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING VORT (SEE                 
SWOMCD #82). WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN SPC WATCH CUTTING INTO PART OF               
OUR WRN CWFA LATER TONIGHT. WILL UPDATE FORECASTS AND HAZARDOUS                 
WEATHER OUTLOOK ACCORDINGLY TO MENTION RELATIVELY SHORT-FUSED                   
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR WRN CWFA.                                 
MARINE: LATEST BUOY DATA AND RUC PROGS SUGGEST EXERCISE CAUTION                 
CRITERIA OVERNIGHT STILL LOOK ON TRACK.                                         
.TLH...NONE.                                                                    
TJT                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.                                                    
**********************************************************                      
1245 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
SYNOPSIS: SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SERN US. SURFACE                
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL E OF FL AND CLINGING STUBBORNLY ALONG               
THE FL E COAST. A WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS TN TO AN ELONGATED SFC LO              
FROM THE MO BOOTHEEL TO NE TX. COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS SW TOWARD OLD            
MEXICO. ACROSS THE GULF COAST...BROAD AREA OF MDT SLY FLOW IS                   
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS MORE UNIFORMLY OVER THE CWA... WITH DEW              
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS OVER LAND...SOUTH              
IN MID TEENS GUSTING INTO THE MID-20S.                                          
DISCUSSION/PUBLIC FORECAST: UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SERN US WILL                   
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HR AND FINALLY GET PUSHED EAST SUN AS STRONG            
SRN STRM TROF APPROACHES THE CWA. SFC TEMPS ALREADY IN THE 70S UNDER            
STUBBORN RIDGE AND SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST TO RISE               
ANOTHER 2 OR 3 DEGREES. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT UPR SUPT UNTIL SUN...SEE            
ONLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SENSIBLE WX THRU TONIGHT...WILL KEEP 30                   
PERCENT WEST TAPERED TO 10 PERCENT EAST. A 10-12 VORT NEAR WRN                  
BOUNDARY SUN MORN WILL JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SUN...STARTING              
EARLY SUN MORNING...MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWFA                  
MIDDAY...EXITING THE SERN BIG BEND ZONES IN THE EVENING. SUN NIGHT              
POPS DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE WRN TO CHANCE ERN. MAY STILL SEE                
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY SUN EVENING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS MOST OF MY             
CWA IN SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS...BELIEVE ANY SUCH WILL BE WEST OF            
APALACHICOLA RIVER AND OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE               
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT (OR TUESDAY             
MORNING) LOWS MUCH COOLER.                                                      
MARINE: MODELS APPARENTLY DIDN'T TAKE A LOOK AT REALITY...AND NOW               
SHOW WINDS LOWER THAN THEY ARE. CURRENTLY HAVE SCEC CONDITIONS                  
WESTERN WATERS...SLOWLY INCREASING EASTERN WATERS. EXPECT WE WILL               
NEED TO KEEP SCEC TONIGHT...INCREASING TO SCA FOR SUN AHEAD OF THE              
FRONT. LATE SUN/EARLY MONDAY WINDS WILL VEER NW TO 15 KT OR LESS                
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE.                                                        
FIRE WX: NO REQUIREMENTS.                                                       
EXTENDED: SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST              
WED AND THU AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE OF            
RAIN WILL BE LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR                   
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.                              
PRELIM NUMBERS...                                                               
TLH  56 71 53 65  2831                                                          
PFN  61 69 51 61  3820                                                          
DHN  60 70 48 57  3821                                                          
ABY  59 69 49 60  2931                                                          
VLD  57 72 53 65  1941                                                          
CTY  59 73 56 67  2851                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
AFD                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
818 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
IR IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDINESS BEGINNING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE               
GULF AROUND THE RETURN FLOW OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. EXPECT             
THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND OVERNITE ACROSS MUCH OF             
SE GA AND NORTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. MAY SEE          
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF COAST DEVELOP LATE...BUT CAP AT 850 MB              
SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING MOST OF THE NIGHT.                 
SUNDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. EAST COAST SEABREEZE BROUGHT IN               
MOIST AIR THIS EVE...DEWPT TEMPS NEAR 60 COMMON NEAR THE COAST AND              
EVEN MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND. MAY SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP                      
TONIGHT...BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND WIND (LATE) NOT                    
EXPECTING ANYTHING DENSE.                                                       
MARINE...CURRENT OBS SHOW WINDS S OR SE 10 KNOTS. THE RUC DOES                  
INDICATE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS               
OVERNITE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.                              
.JAX...                                                                         
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
PP/ARS/PK                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
945 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
CURRENTLY...HI PRES FROM THE SFC TO THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE               
FOR A GENERALLY NICE WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FLY IN THE                   
OINTMENT IS PATCH OF MID AND HI CLOUDS OVER THE CENTER PORTION OF               
THE CWA. THIS HAS REDUCED THE EXPECTED WARM-UP A BIT.                           
PUBLIC...MORNING RUC40 PICKS UP ON HIGHEST PORTION OF CLOUD DECK AT             
400 MB. THE MODEL SHUNTS THE AREA OUT INTO THE ATLC BY 18Z. WILL                
INSERT "VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS" WORDING INTO SOME OF THE ZONES.               
DON'T EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED TOO MUCH AND WILL GENERALLY               
LEAVE ALONE. WILL INDICATE A BIT OF COASTAL TEMP RANGE AND AFTN                 
SEABREEZE DUE TO HIGH TEMP DIF BETWEEN THE LAND AND OCEAN. SEABREEZE            
SHOWS UP WELL ON 12KM ETA BY MID-AFTN.                                          
MARINE...WILL INDICATE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IN NEAR SHORE SEGMENT.             
WILL ALSO KNOCK 1ST PERIOD SEAS DOWN ABOUT A FOOT.                              
.JAX...                                                                         
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
CARROLL/BROYLES/DYKES                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME                                             
1120 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
.UPDATED...1100 AM SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS RUNNING AT 30 MPH AT              
FRENCHVILLE...23 MPH AT PRESQUE ISLE. RUC SURFACE/950 WINDS INDICATE THESE      
WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BUMP UP FORECAST WINDS TO 20 TO     
30 MPH IN ZONES 1>4. EXPECT AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES      
THIS AFTERNOON NORTH...SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE.                 
.SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO               
THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE               
CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES SLOWLY EAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS       
EAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS                 
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.       
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
ARCTIC EXPRESS CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 36 TO 48 HRS. I WILL              
BE USING THE ETA THRU THE 1ST 48 HRS BASED ON IT/S PERFORMANCE W/UA             
& SATL WV/IR TRENDS.                                                            
TODAY...BASED ON LATEST ANAL & GUID...WILL KEEP WIND CHILL                      
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WHERE THEY AREA SITUATED. SHEARED VORT MAX SWINGING         
ACROSS THE REGION WILL IGNITE WINDS AGAIN W/CONTINUATION OF FRIGID AIR.         
ETA T1 VALUES WILL BE A BASIS FOR MAXES. WILL HAVE TO CARRY SOME CLOUDS FOR     
THE N AS H8 RH STILL THERE. WILL GROUP ZONE 2 W/1,3 &4 BASED ON THIS            
THINKING.                                                                       
TONIGHT...ANY CLOUDS SHOULD LEAVE BY SUNSET W/ANOTHER BRUTALLY COLD             
NIGHT. WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO DEAL W/SOME GRADIENT DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRES     
STARTING TO SLIDE SE TOWARD THE CWFA & SFC LOW PRES MOVG NE OFF MID-ATLC        
COAST. ALTHOUGH...WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STG AS PRVS NIGHTS. WE/LL SEE SOME       
OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON BY SUN MRNG. WILL NEED TO CARRY WIND         
CHILL WARNINGS FOR @ LEAST THE EVNG FOR THE N & ADVS FOR DOWNEAST & COAST.      
MINS WILL BE A REFLECTION OF THE ETA T1 ONCE AGAIN.                             
SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRES STARTS TO SLIDES EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CWFA W/A       
RELAXATION IN THE GRADIENT...FINALLY!!. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE 0F             
ACROSS THE N FOR THE 1ST TIME IN 3 DAYS!. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF THE MOS.     
LOOKING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA BEGINS TO TAKE EFFECT ALF.                      
ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED OVER THE CWFA. DEEP SNOWPACK...DECENT           
RADIATIONAL COOLING PLUS ARCTIC AIR WILL ALLOW MINS TO BE MUCH                  
COLDER THAN WHAT GUID IS PREACHING. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH                
CI GETS INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE WAA. EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT             
TEMPS-REALLY BOTTOM OUT AS INITIAL START OF WAA W/A COLD AIRMASS STILL          
ENTRENCHED. WILL TWEAK MINS DOWN A TAD ESP FOR 1ST 2 SET OF ZONE GROUPINGS.     
GOING FURTHER OUT:  NO CHGS TO BE MADE. SFC LOW PRES SYSM MOVG NE               
FROM THE SERN U.S. WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. ECMWF/CAN GLOBAL SHOW SYSM TO       
BE A BIT FURTHER W THAN GFS/UKMET W/SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ARRIVING INTO            
DOWNEAST & COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DAYCREW HAS MENTION OF SNOW IN      
FOR LATE TUESDAY. DO AGREE THAT DENSE COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO                  
DISLODGE...HOWEVER...POSN OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES COULD BE A KEY PLAYER.            
THINGS MIGHT NEED TO BE MOVED UP INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IF CAN            
GLOBAL/ECMWF PAN OUT. DAYCREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER.                          
COASTAL WATERS...LOOKS LIKE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TODAY W/CONDS DOWN TO        
STG SCA LEVELS. WILL MOST LIKELY NEED GLW FOR TONIGHT AS VORT MAX SWINGS        
THROUGH THE WATERS W/ANOTHER DOSE OF CAA. GRADIENT LOOSENS UP ON SUN AS         
ARCTIC HIGH PRES BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA.                                
.CAR...WIND CHILL WARNING ZONES 1>6/10 TODAY INTO TONIGHT.                      
       WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONES 11/15>17/29>32 TODAY INTO TONIGHT.             
       SCA FOR TODAY.                                                           
       GLW FOR TONIGHT.                                                         
       HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.                               
APFFEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1035 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
12Z RAOBS/WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW CONTD SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA            
WITH UPR GRT LKS UNDER INFLUENCE OF NRN BRANCH NW FLOW BTWN RDG OVR             
WRN CAN AND SLOWLY DEPARTING ARCTIC VORTEX OVR ERN CAN. 1042MB SFC              
HI NOTED NR LK WINNIPEG WITH RDGING E ACRS ONTARIO. VERY COLD/DRY               
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THERE...TEMPS IN ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP BLO               
-40 WITH DWPTS GENERALLY -25F TO -45F. 12Z INL/YPL SDNGS SHOW VERY              
DRY LLVLS WITH SHARP INVRNS ARND H925. 12Z GRB SDNG SHOWS A BIT MORE            
LLVL MSTR BLO INVRN ARND H9...NNE FLOW E OF HI PRES IN SCNTRL CAN               
HAS ADVCTD LK SUP MODERATED AIRMASS INTO CNTRL CWA WHERE CLDS/                  
FLURRIES RPRTD ATTM AS FAR INLAND AS IMT-ESC PER SFC OBS/88D/SAT                
PIX. THIS CLD...WHICH IS MOST EXTENSIVE OVR GENERALLY ICE-FREE                  
SCNTRL LK SUP...TENDING TO DRIFT SW IN LLVL NE FLOW. 88D INDICATES              
REFLECTIVITIES IN WEAK LES BANDS COMING ASHORE IN MQT COUNTY NO                 
GREATER THAN 12-15DBZ. EXTENSIVE ICE COVER ON LK SUP...UPSTREAM DRY             
AIR AS WELL AS HI STABILITY...AND GENERAL ACYC FLOW ARND HI ALL                 
CONTRIBUTING TO MORE DISORGANIZED/WEAKER LES THAN ONE WOULD XCPT                
GIVEN H85 TEMPS -16C TO -20C. GENERALLY JUST SCT CLD ACRS WRN LK                
SUP. ERN ZNS MCLR AS NE FLOW OF DRY AIR DOWNSLOPING OFF ONTARIO NEAR            
ANJ HAS DSPTD CLD. KEWEENAW PENINSULA ALSO MCLR.                                
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TDAY ARE CLD/WEAK LES TRENDS AND TEMPS.                      
12Z RUC SHOWS SLOWLY RISING H5 HGTS IN CONTD NW FLOW ALF AS VORTEX              
IN ERN CAN SLOWLY EDGES E. SFC HI PRES RDG FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY E AS            
WELL WITH LLVL WND FLOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY VEER DURG DAY. RUC H95 RH             
DEPICTS PRESENT LK SC QUITE WELL AND SHOWS HIER RH UNDER INVRN                  
TENDING TO DRIFT SW DURG DAY. VEERING WND FCST TO PUSH DRIER AIR OVR            
THE ERN ZNS W DURG DAY AS WELL. SO XPCT DCRSG CLDS IN ALGER/DELTA/              
MNM COUNIES...BUT CONTD CLD COVER OR INCRSG CLDS IN BARAGA/MQT/IRON/            
DICKINSON COUNTIES...WITH SOME BRK UP LATER TDAY AS RUC FCST SDNGS              
SHOW INVRN SUBSIDING TO H95 LVL. KEWEENAW SHUD REMAIN PCLDY WHILE NE            
TO E FLOW WL TEND TO DSPT SC DRIFTING AND DOWNSLOPING INTO GOGEBIC/             
ONTONAGON ZNS. XPCT ANY SN ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH PER 88D               
OBS AND LWRG INVRN.                                                             
MIXING TO H925-95 ON RUC FCST SDNGS SUG MAX WL RISE TO 10 TO 15...SO            
NO CHGS NECESSARY TO GOING FCST XCPT TO LWR FCST MAX OVR THE SCNTRL             
WHERE ENE FLOW WL ADVCT RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IN FM THE              
ERN ZNS.                                                                        
AFDMQT FM MIDNGT SHIFT FOR LATER PDS...                                         
TONIGHT HAS MAKINGS OF VERY COLD NIGHT W/ WEAK (AND OFFSHORE)                   
GRADIENT AND DRY AMS IN PLACE. TEMPS JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR ARE WELL            
INTO MINUS 30S. THOUGH WE WON'T GET THAT COLD...AT LEAST 20F BELOW              
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET INLAND AND EAST AS WE WILL TAP INTO THE                   
EXTREMELY DRY AIR IN ONTARIO. HAVE GONE MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE HERE...             
BUT MAY NOT QUITE REACH RECORD OF -25F AT KMQT.                                 
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITION TO MORE SERIOUS MODERATION...AS H8                 
TEMPS WARM TO -8C (PER ETA AND AVN) IN INCREASING S/SW FLOW. AGREE              
W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE WARM (ESPECIALLY THE            
MET)...CONSIDERING HOW COLD WE WILL START THE DAY AT AND EXPECTED               
STRENGTH OF LLVL INVERSION. EVEN SO...SHOULD REACH INVOF 20F W/ LOTS            
OF SUN.                                                                         
ALSO AGREE W/ PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT MON HAS POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM             
DAY...W/ DRY AMS PERSISTING AND WAA KICKING H8 TEMPS TO NEAR ZERO OR            
A LITTLE ABOVE (PER ETA...AVN HAS COLD BIAS AND IS ABOUT 5C COOLER).            
NEW MAV GUIDANCE LOOKS ON TRACK THOUGH W/ HIGHS INTO 30S...MID 30S              
IN WEST. HAVE UPPED TEMPS IN GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.                
OTHERWISE NEW MODELS COMING IN AGREE IN KEEPING ANY MENTION OF PCPN             
OUT UNTIL MON EVENING IN WEST. U P WILL REMAIN IN DRY ANTICYCLONIC              
FLOW UNTIL THEN...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS.                      
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.                                                     
.MQT...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WRNG LAKE SUPERIOR.                                 
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1026 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
COLD AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1040MB HIGH JUST             
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION                 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KDTX RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS            
AND FLURRIES EXTENDING FROM THE THUMB INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER                  
MICHIGAN. MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON UNDER NORTHEASTERLY                      
FLOW...WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C HAS LED TO THE LAKE                  
EFFECT ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE KDTX VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS                
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 4K FT...NEARLY 2KFT HIGHER THAN EARLIER              
MODEL RUN SOUNDINGS SUGGESTED THEY WOULD BE. THE CURRENT RUC                    
SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON INVERSION                             
HEIGHTS...ALTHOUGH IT ONLY SHOWS INVERSIONS AROUND 3K FT. THE RUC               
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING WILL DRY OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS                  
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON THIS                
AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS UNDERESTIMATING INVERSION                    
HEIGHTS...I WILL CARRY THE MENTION OF FLURRIES NORTH OF M-59 THROUGH            
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
THE IR SATELLITE LOOP IS SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM.                
THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING TREND IN THE CLOUD TOPS...SO I DO EXPECT               
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE                
SAGINAW VALLEY. DUE TO THE EXTENT OF HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM AND WITH              
THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATO CU DECK OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF             
THE FORECAST AREA...I WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD                 
COVER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET. WITH            
PERSIST INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR...I DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MUCH               
ABOVE CURRENT READINGS.                                                         
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
CONSIDINE                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1005 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
...UPDATED TO PUT LAKE HURON LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN ZONES...                   
LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE...RADAR MOSAIC OF THE WESTERN GREAT                    
LAKES...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IT IS APPARENT THAT LAKE EFFECT                
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAKE HURON AND CONTINUE TO STREAK              
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE GRR CWA.  RUC             
AND LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO 900 MB.  THE LATEST ETA DOES            
SHOW SOME MOISTURE THERE TOO (BETWEEN 1000 AND 900 MB).  BOTH THE               
ETA AND RUC SHOW THIS MOISTURE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS             
CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SURFACE HIGH HEADS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
ONTARIO.  THE AIR IN THE CLOUD LAYER IS COLD ENOUGH OF SNOWFLAKE                
FORMATION... AND WILL REMAIN SO.  I DO EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS AND                
FLURRIES TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT/END AS SURFACE HEATING MIXES OUT THE              
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE DRY AIR ABOVE IT.                                   
MEANWHILE...AT UPPER LEVELS THERE IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SEEN ON             
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE THAT AREA MOSTLY MOVING EAST.  ALSO WITH THAT             
THERE IS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION LIFT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM                 
JET...WHO'S CORE WILL BE OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING.  THOSE               
THINGS WILL COMBINE TO KEEP THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FAIRLY THICK                
OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.                                
BOTTOM LINE TO ALL OF THIS IS MORE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND                
WITH THAT LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.  I ALSO PUT FLURRIES IN            
THE FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF GRR (DUE TO NE WIND                    
TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE HURON AS SEEN ON THE GRR AND DTX 88D).                    
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
930 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
RUC HAS BEEN DOING A REASONABLY GOOD JOB FORECASTING SOUTHWARD SURGE            
OF COLD AIR.  IF ANYTHING... OBSERVED NC PIEDMONT TEMPERATURES ARE A            
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN IN THE RUC AT LEAST FOR THE GSP CWA.                  
LATEST TRENDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 12Z RUNS INDICATED...            
BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.  EXPECT THE 32F ISOTHERM TO BE PRETTY CLOSE              
TO NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z... PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE                 
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA.  ALSO APPEARS TEMPERATURES IN THE ASHEVILLE               
AREA SHOULD BE NEAR FREEZING AROUND SUNRISE.  SOME LIGHT RAIN AND               
DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA... BUT THE MOST                     
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION IS STILL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.  AS COLD              
AIR DAMMING CONTINUES OVERNIGHT... SLOPING ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL             
EXPOSE THEMSELVES TO STRONG AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW.  AS A                     
RESULT... PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EVEN AHEAD OF               
CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST TN TO SOUTHERN MS.  WITH               
EXPECTATION THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE               
MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER TO FREEZING OR BELOW IN ZONES WHERE            
WARNING IS IN EFFECT... WILL NOT CHANGE CURRENT WARNINGS.  WINTER               
STORM WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE IN             
EFFECT.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN TIP                 
OF NC... SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES.              
FCSTID =   06                                                                   
GSP   34  34  29  42 /  90 100  90  40                                          
AND   36  36  30  44 /  90 100  90  30                                          
CLT   32  32  29  40 /  90 100  90  50                                          
HKY   29  29  27  38 / 100 100  90  50                                          
AVL   31  31  29  40 / 100 100  90  40                                          
.GSP...                                                                         
GA...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES                       
     GAZ010...GAZ017>018...GAZ026...GAZ028>029.                                 
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES            
     NCZ033>037...NCZ049>050...NCZ054>057.                                      
     WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES            
     NCZ048...NCZ053...NCZ065>072...NCZ082.                                     
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES NCZ033...                       
     NCZ048>053...NCZ058>059...NCZ062>065.                                      
     WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE               
     NCZ064.                                                                    
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES            
     SCZ008>009.                                                                
     WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES                       
     SCZ001>007...SCZ010>014...SCZ019.                                          
LGL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
454 AM CST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS NORTH OF              
THE FRONT ARE LIFTED AND THEN REPLACED BY LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTH            
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH METRO AIRPORTS BY TAF            
ISSUANCE SO WILL START OFF WITH NW-N FLOW. 88D SHOWS SOME SHRA                  
AROUND IN ADVANCE OF FRONT AND BEHIND IT AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE NOT             
REALLY A LOT. WILL WAIT UNTIL LAST MINUTE BEFORE MENTIONING ANY                 
SHRA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STAY VFR WITH            
STRONG N-NW FLOW AGAIN TONIGHT.                                                 
.PUBLIC DISCUSSION...                                                           
SURFACE COLD FRONT...PER LATEST SURFACE OBS AND SPLIT CHANNEL                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY...IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN              
THE CWA. REFLECTIVITY DATA FROM KFWS HAS SHOWN WEAK CONVECTION                  
FLARING UP SPORADICALLY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AND EXPECT THIS TO               
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA              
AND RUC40 SUGGESTS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN                       
SUFFICIENTLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO WARRANT 20-30 MPH NORTH WIND                 
SPEEDS...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH             
TEXAS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING              
...AND EXIT SOUTHEAST ZONES BY AROUND NOON. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED            
TO NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STEADY OR SLOWLY                
FALLING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AS STRONG COLD               
ADVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEHIND              
FROPA. SLOW CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY            
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON                
SUNDAY...WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND MODERATE INSOLATION.            
A LIGHT FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY               
MORNING...GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SURFACE HIGH AND OPTIMAL                     
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.                                                 
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                 
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH NORTH OF TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW                  
CHANCE POPS FORECASTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.              
MAIN FORCING FOR UVV WILL COME FROM THE COLD FRONT...IN AN EVENT                
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MRF AND CANADIAN             
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE                   
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SUFFICIENT DISCREPANCIES IN THE             
GUIDANCE TO FORECAST A MAJOR ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS FAR OUT.               
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...AND REFINE FORECAST AS              
MORE GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE.                                                
DFW   54  33  49  30 /  30   0   0   0                                          
ACT   66  34  50  31 /  30   0   0   0                                          
PRX   60  30  47  27 /  30   0   0   0                                          
DTO   52  31  48  28 /  20   0   0   0                                          
TKI   55  31  48  28 /  30   0   0   0                                          
DAL   55  32  49  29 /  30   0   0   0                                          
TRL   60  32  49  29 /  30   0   0   0                                          
CRS   67  34  50  31 /  30   0   0   0                                          
TPL   70  34  51  31 /  30   0   0   0                                          
.FWD...                                                                         
TX...WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONES TXZ091>095...TXZ100>107...               
TXZ115>123...TXZ129>135...TXZ141>148...TXZ156>162...TXZ174>175.                 
$$                                                                              
65/DD                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1145 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                     
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE ZFP TO KILL WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MAKE A FEW             
OTHER MINOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST.                                          
HI PRESS RIDGE TO CONT TO BUILD ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE.                   
11-12Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE SINGLE             
NUMBERS (BOTH ABOVE AND BLO ZERO) TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AT             
5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE BASICALLY ZERO TO +10F TODAY AS WELL. FEW             
TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT               
MESONET OBS. BASED ON EXPECTED MAX TEMPS AND MID-PT WIND SPEEDS                 
TODAY...WILL ALLOW CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS              
FCST PACKAGE. WILL CONT TO HIGHLITE SOME LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES FOR            
THE REST OF TODAY IN THE ZFP THOUGH.                                            
LOW-LVLS LOOK TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. RUC SHOWS MAYBE           
SOME HIR CLDS AFFECTING THE SRN TIER ZONES TODAY. SAT PIX SHOW THAT             
SOME OF THESE CLDS MAY INDEED DO THIS TODAY.                                    
STRONG H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. MID-LVLS             
LOOKS TO BE DRY ACRS THE FA AS WELL TODAY AND TONITE. NO OTHER                  
SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED ACRS THE FA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. FEW OTHER             
MOSTLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO GOING ZFP.                                           
WRK ZONES...FINAL ZFP...AND NPWBTV ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                     
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH IDAHO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WASHINGTON                                     
230 AM PST SAT FEB 15 2003                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE                         
INLAND NORTHWEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TODAY. THE                       
WEATHER WILL THEN TURN INCREASINGLY WET TONIGHT AS A MOIST                      
UPPER LEVEL TROF HEADS INLAND. THIS TROF WILL BRING A                           
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...                       
EACH RESULTING IN A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS                   
WILL FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY...POSSIBLY               
BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.                                 
.DISCUSSION...TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER              
THE INLAND NW TODAY...AS OFFSHORE TROF CONTINUES TO DIG THIS                    
MORNING NEAR 35/140. THIS DIGGING HAS HELD UP THE EASTWARD                      
PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME OFF THE COAST WHICH                 
CONSEQUENTLY HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ONTO THE COAST.             
AS OF 10Z THERE STILL HAVE BEEN NO MEASURABLE REPORTS OF                        
PRECIPITATION ON THE COAST. THIS SUGGEST THE 00Z GFS RUN WAS TOO                
AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING THE PRECIPITATION INLAND THIS MORNING...                
AND SUPPORTS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE 00Z ETA AND 06Z MESOETA RUNS. THE            
RUC SUGGESTS THAT EVEN THESE RUNS ARE A BIT TOO FAST. THIS BEING                
SAID...WE WILL TRIM ALL POPS ACCORDINGLY TODAY...ESPECAILLY THOSE               
IN THE EASTERN ZONES. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO                   
WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IN TURN STRENGTHENS THE LOW-             
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM              
AIR ADVECTION AND DECENT MIXING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND SHOULD                 
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WARMING VERSUS YESTERDAY. THIS MIXING WILL                
ALSO LIKELY ERODE ANY STRATUS OVER THE COLUMBIA BASIN LATER TODAY.              
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THE OFFSHORE TROF CONTINUES TO                
MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT PUSHING THE PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER PLUME INLAND. DECENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT THEN BEGINS TO                     
COINCIDE WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW RESULTING IN                  
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST ZONES. THE                          
SMALLEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE SE ZONES DUE                   
TO THE SW-NE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE PLUME. SNOW LEVELS WILL                
REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE WARM SECTOR FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE              
CWA.                                                                            
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS                  
INLAND...BRINGING A DROP IN SNOW LEVELS...A MARKED INCREASE IN                  
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND A SHIFTING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE              
SW. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS POINT TO A CLASSIC SHOWERY REGIME...WITH              
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FOCUSING NEAR THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE                  
CASCADES...BLUES AND NE WA AND NORTH IDAHO MOUNTAINS. LOCAL                     
SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE IMPRESSIVE AS WE REMAIN IN THIS UNSETTLED              
REGIME FOR OVER 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE ETA EXTENSION AND MM5                    
INDICATE THAT EVEN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT                    
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOCAL AREAS. FOR NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON              
HIGHLIGHTS BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.                                    
INLAND NW WHICH WILL                                                            
GR                                                                              
.EXTENDED...TUE THROUGH FRI...NEW RUN OF THE LATEST GFS DIFFERENT               
WITH STRENGH...TIMING AND POSITION OF CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE                
DISTRICT NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S AND THURSDAY'S RUN. GFS              
QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN ALSO SO WE SEEM TO               
HAVE SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL                   
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AND NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO AVOID            
A FLIP-FLOP. THE DISTRICT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW EACH DAY           
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AS WELL.                        
...THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRODUCT CONCERNING WARNINGS AND FORECASTS            
IS VALID ONLY AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE LATEST WARNING AND                   
FORECAST INFORMATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS...               
GEG 045/038/047/032/043 17756                                                   
COE 046/035/046/032/039 -7766                                                   
PUW 047/040/047/032/043 -7766                                                   
LWS 052/041/050/036/046 -6665                                                   
CQV 047/034/045/031/042 18746                                                   
SPT 044/033/045/031/040 19956                                                   
WWP 043/038/045/036/034 -8856                                                   
MWH 047/036/048/032/047 36635                                                   
EAT 044/034/048/032/044 46635                                                   
OMK 042/030/044/030/041 36646                                                   
.OTX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
210 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                      
SYNOPSIS: LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE HAS POTENT MID/UPPER              
TROUGH OVER THE S/CNTRL PLAINS W/ MAIN VORT ENERGY FROM LOWER TX                
COAST EXTENDING NE INTO MS W/ WEAKER VORT LOBE FURTHER E FROM SRN AL            
INTO FL PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW OVER N/CNTRL MS W/ TRAILING COLD                 
FRONT THRU ERN LA INTO WRN GULF. LIGHTNING/RADAR DATA SHOWS MAIN                
SQUALL LINE FROM ERN AL TO SE MS/ERN LA. A DEVELOPING LINE WAS                  
ORIENTED N-S ALONG ERN VORT LOBE JUST S OF FL PANHANDLE. ALREADY                
HAVE RECEIVED A FEW MESO ALERTS FOR CELLS OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS.            
MAIN THREATS W/ STRONGER CELLS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS             
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN & LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...IT WAS UNSEASONABLY              
WARM/HUMID OVER THE AREA W/ DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WINDS WERE                   
GENERALLY FROM THE S LESS THAN 10 KTS...WHILE OVER THE WATERS...THEY            
WERE S-SE 10-15 KTS.                                                            
MODELS/FORECAST: OVERALL...NO MAJOR DISCREPANCIES W/ MODELS. THE                
GFS 06Z H5 PROG IS CLOSER TO REALITY...WHILE BOTH THE ETA/NGM ARE A             
TAD LESS AMPLIFIED WRT TO TROUGH OVER S/CNTRL CONUS. THE TROUGH                 
CONTINUES ITS ENEWD PROGRESS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THRU                
MONDAY. MAIN VORT ENERGY DROPS SEWD INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER GULF               
STATES OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NEWD ON MONDAY W/ RETURN TO ZONAL               
PATTERN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW OVER CNTRL MS                
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO CNTRL GA THIS EVENING...THEN RE-INTENSIFIES              
OFF THE NC COAST OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT              
PASSES THRU THE CWFA TONIGHT. MODEL TIME-HEIGHT PROGS SHOW MAXIMUM              
OMEGA/LIFT OCCURRING BETWEEN 09Z & 18Z TODAY...COINCIDENT W/ EWD                
PROGRESS OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE. MEAN RH STAYS ABOVE 80% THRU               
THIS EVENING...THEN TAPERS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12Z MONDAY. MODEL               
SHEAR/STABILITY PARAMETERS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE W/ THIS SYSTEM W/              
MAX 20-30 KTS UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN LOWEST GATES & LOWEST LI'S                
AROUND -2. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE                
WIND GUSTS W/ EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE &              
SPC HAS ENTIRE CWFA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK TODAY. ALSO...THE                 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN W/ TRAINING CELLS.                      
CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY DECREASE TO CHANCE TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES                
THRU. DRIER & SLIGHTLY COOLER FOLLOW TO START THE WORK WEEK. A BLEND            
OF GUIDANCE TEMPS/POPS PREFERRED.                                               
MARINE: WINDS VEERING FROM SLY TO SWLY TODAY...THEN W-NW AFTER FROPA            
TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CAUTION HEADLINES GOING TODAY/TONIGHT W/ 15-20               
KNOTS & GUSTY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO NLY & LAY DOWN                  
THRU TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY               
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES NEAR THE WATERS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING E-SE             
ON THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E.                                        
FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS THRU MONDAY.                                               
EXTENDED (WED-SAT): HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BOTH WEDNESDAY &                   
THURSDAY W/ TEMPS MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. GFS               
SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS INTO MS VALLEY ON            
FRIDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL SET STAGE FOR SHOWERS BEGINNING            
LATE FRIDAY & LINGERING INTO SATURDAY...ALONG W/ COOLER TEMPS.                  
PRELIM CCF NUMBERS...                                                           
TLH 071 052 064 035 065 92000                                                   
PFN 070 050 060 040 064 92000                                                   
DHN 070 047 057 037 062 93000                                                   
ABY 069 048 059 037 063 93000                                                   
VLD 072 053 063 038 065 94000                                                   
CTY 073 055 066 038 067 95000 08                                                
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
MAJ                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1000 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
H5 HEIGHT/VORT RUC ANALYSES OVERLAID ONTO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW              
IMPRESSIVE 500 MB S/W TROUGH OVER THE TX GULF COAST. BUT CONFLUENT              
FLOW DOWNSTREAM (BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT) WILL              
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCD VORTS NEXT 12 HOURS.               
SOUTHERN PORTION OF 250 MB JET AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NE GULF              
OF MEXICO AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THIS FEATURE HAS                     
TEMPORARILY INCREASED THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF A SQUALL LINE               
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE.                               
EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS H25 JET                      
REDEVELOPS WEST OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CLOSER TO THE UPPER                  
TROUGH. STILL EXPECT VERY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN                   
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS              
NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH ANY              
SHOWERS OR STORMS AS STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC ARE                      
CONVECTIVELY MIXED DOWN. PRIMARY CONCERN IS LIGHTNING ESP WHERE                 
LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE ARE OUTDOORS...SUCH AS DAYTONA BEACH.                   
REFER TO THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR LOCATION...DIRECTION AND            
SPEED OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES BUT              
IS BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE                   
STARTED.                                                                        
CLOUDS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS IN INCREASINGLY                
MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF THERE UNTIL LATE                
AFTN OR MORE LIKELY EVE. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING                 
WORDING AND MENTION LATE AFTN FOR BULK OF ACTIVITY FOR THE SOUTH.               
PRESENCE OF AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE MARTIN/ST LUCIE              
COAST MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION WHEN IT ARRIVES THERE.                         
MARINE...BUOY 009 SENSORS WENT OFFLINE AROUND MIDNIGHT LAST NIGHT.              
IT IS REPORTING CALM WINDS EVERY HOUR BUT THIS CANNOT BE THE CASE               
GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BUOYS 010/012 SHOW SSE WINDS AROUND 15             
KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE CAUTION STATEMENT THIS AFTN WITH ADVISORY                  
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROS            
SOUTHERN GA.                                                                    
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...KELLY                                                           
AVIATION/FIRE...SPRATT                                                          
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1040 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...VERY FEW CHANGES PLANNED.                            
HIGH PRES STRADDLING ONT/QUE BORDER IS PROVIDING MUCH OF UPR MI WITH            
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. VIS SAT SHOWING EXTENT OF ICE COVER ON LK             
SUPERIOR. IMPRESSIVE...WITH 10-20 PERCENT OF WRN LK ICE FREE. MORE              
OPEN WATER ON ERN SIDE...FOCUSING BTWN STANNARD ROCK AND 15 MILES E             
OF CARIBOU ISLAND...WHERE DEEPEST PORTION OF SUPERIOR RESIDES. ONLY             
EXCEPTION TO SUNNY MORNING IS IMMEDIATELY ALONG BAY OF GREEN BAY/LK             
MI SHORE FM MNM TO ESC WHERE SHALLOW E/SE FLOW IS GENERATING SCT-BKN            
LAKE SC. 12Z ROAB FM KGRB SHOWED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SHARP 950MB             
INVERSION. RUC HANDLING AREA OF MOISTURE UNDER INVERSION WELL AND               
SHOWS 950MB MOISTURE DIMINISHING WHILE TRYING TO EXPAND NW BY EARLY             
AFTN. WILL MENTION A FEW CLOUDS ALONG THE SHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTN.             
AREA OF MID CLOUDS (H7) APPROACHING NE MN INTO ONT BUT BOTH ETA/RUC             
AGREE THAT MAJORITY OF CLOUD WILL BE DIVERTED N OF CWA AS AIRMASS               
UNDER RIDGE IS VRY DRY. SOME CI MAY MAKE RUN AT KEWEENAW LATER...BUT            
MS SKIES COVER SCENARIO NICELY.                                                 
WHERE INVERSION HAS SLIGHTLY BROKE...TEMPS ARE RECOVERING VRY WELL.             
AFT 12Z LOW OF -24F AT OFFICE TEMP PROMPTLY ROSE 18 DEGREES IN ONE              
HOUR. EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE INTO SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE BY             
MIDDAY AND INTO THE UPR TEENS BY LATE AFTN AS WE MIX TO H95. KIWD               
ALREADY HAS S/SW 10KT WIND SO COULD SEE LOWER 20S AS MIXING TO 925MB            
SEEMS LIKELY. OVR EXTRM EAST IT WILL BE A STRUGGLE WITH ESE WIND OFF            
ONTARIO. AT BEST EXPECT MAXT AT KERY INTO LWR TEENS.                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1015 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
WE WILL START TO SEE RAINFALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE                
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE                 
ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST IN                       
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING. TOUGHEST PART OF THE FORECAST            
IS TEMPS WHICH WILL BE DRIVEN BY HOW FAR WEST/INLAND THE COASTAL                
FRONT MOVES LATER TODAY. THE GFS/RUC 40 BRING THE FRONT ALMOST TO               
HIGHWAY 17 BY 00Z. TEMPS ALONG THE SRN OUTER BANKS HAVE BEEN                    
CREEPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AND LOWER 60S SFC TEMPS               
WERE NOTED AT DIAMOND TOWER @ 14Z. WILL LIKELY INC TEMPS ESTRN                  
ZONES. SIG DIFF IN TEMPS BETWEEN THE NRN OUTER BANKS-SRN OUTER                  
BANKS MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A NE FETCH OF THE              
COLD SHELF WATERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL ALSO CLEAN UP               
WORDING IN ZONES TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD RAIN BY EVENING.                        
SIG WAVE ENERGY AND ROUGH SURF WILL POUND THE OUTER BANKS TODAY                 
ESPECIALLY N OF RODANTHE AND WE WILL CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.            
MARINE...CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PAMLICO                
SOUND THEN N OF HATTERAS. AS EXPECTED...STRONGEST NE WINDS ON N                 
PERIPHERY OF COASTAL TROF IN THE TIGHT PGRAD WITH LIGHTER WINDS                 
RIGHT ALONG THE TROF. STILL PREFER GFS BECAUSE OF ITS PLACEMENT OF              
THE TROF AND THE EVENTUAL LOW PRES THAT DVLPS ALONG IT. GFS MVS THE             
TROF N ALONG THE COAST BY 0Z...TIMING OF THIS TRICKY GIVEN ITS STILL            
A GOOD WAYS OFFSHORE ALONG OUR SRN WATERS...MORE LIKELY TO MV CLOSER            
TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON N OF LOOKOUT. MVMNT OF TROF PUSHES THE              
STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE TROF A BIT FARTHER N...BUT ALSO INCRSS S               
WINDS S OF THE TROF LATE TODAY. THIS SITUATION COVERED PRETTY WELL              
IN CURRENT CWF. ALTHO WILL KEEP THEME OF CWF ON THE WINDY SIDE                  
BECAUSE OF WIND NOW AND EXPECTED WINDS LATER (ON S SIDE OF                      
TROF)...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WIND ACROSS OUR WATERS AS            
THE TROF MVS N ACROSS OUR WTRS. STILL CONCERNED ABT STRONG WINDS                
LATER OR TONIGHT N/NE OF DVLPG LOW...AS PAST EVENTS HAVE SHOWN PRES             
FALLS S OF OUR WTRS COMBINED WITH STRONG RIDGING TO OUR N AND INLAND            
RESULTING IN DECENT GALE FORCE WINDS. WL WAIT TO SEE WHAT 12Z GFS               
SUGGESTS FOR TNGT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE GALE BREAK AT OCROCOKE...WITH             
GALES MOST LIKELY N OF HAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBILITY OF            
GALES RETURNING FARTHER S TOWARD OCRACOKE BREAK THIS EVENING OR                 
TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW. CFW TO REMAIN POSTED N OF HAT THRU 15Z TMRW.              
.MHX...GALE WARNING FROM OCRACOKE N.                                            
       COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM CAPE HATTERAS N.                              
       SCA S OF OCRACOKE AND SOUNDS.                                            
ELARDO/PETRO                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1000 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON                  
CURRENT READINGS. THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE ICE POTENTIAL            
IN THE NORTH PART. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES ICE COULD ACCUMULATE                
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH IN LANCASTER COUNTY BY SUNSET...BUT               
BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BECAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE               
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE            
FREEZING. MSAS SHOWS NO PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
AND ALSO NO TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. ALSO ACCUMULATION SHOULD             
BE LIMITED BY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FALLING THROUGH H85               
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR STEADY TONIGHT            
AND THE LATEST ETA SHOWS MID-LEVEL DRYING AND DIMINISHED QPF THIS               
EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS DRYING. EARLY THIS             
AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND JUST               
HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF FAIRFIELD...                 
NEWBERRY... LANCASTER...KERSHAW AND CHESTERFIELD.                               
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT SCZ015>016...SCZ020>022.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONE SCZ015.                         
RJL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1025 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE. CLOUDS STILL LINGERING BUT SHOWING                 
SIGNS OF DISSIPATING OVER VICTORIA AREA/NORTHEAST COASTAL BEND.                 
UPDATED ZONES EARLIER FOR MORNING CLOUDS...SHOULD SEE CLEARING IN               
THE AFTERNOON.  NEW RUC SHOWS GRADIENT WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON               
OVER THE INLAND AREAS AND WINDS ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO COME DOWN.               
WILL MONITOR FOR TEMPERATURES BUT OVERALL FEEL TEMPERATURE FORECAST             
IN LINE.  SCA STILL REQUIRED OFFSHORE.  OTHER THAN THE WINDS...                 
SHOULD BE A NICE ALBEIT A SLIGHTLY COOL DAY TODAY.                              
.CRP...SCA230-235-250-255-270-275.                                              
86/GW (SHORT-TERM)                                                              
81/TE (LONG-TERM)                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1057 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE ZFP TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO MOSTLY THE               
FIRST PERIOD.                                                                   
HI PRESS RIDGE TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...AS A STORM SYS               
MOVES ACRS THE SE USA.                                                          
11-12Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE                 
SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS             
AT 5-10 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE +5-15F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD           
TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. LOW-LVLS TO             
BE DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES (DUE TO             
SOME HIR CLDS) ACRS THE FA TODAY. SAT PIX SHOW THESE CLDS MOVING ACRS           
THE FA ATTM.                                                                    
H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WK WAA FOR TONITE.               
MID-LVLS LOOK TO BASICALLY BE DRY ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE. WILL            
CONT WITH A MENTION OF MORE CLDS ACRS THE SRN TIER ZONES TODAY. NO              
OTHER SIGINICANT CHANGES TO GOING ZFP.                                          
WRK ZONES AND FINAL ZFP ALREADY ISSUED. LATER...                                
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
430 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                      
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. IF FORECAST                 
ACCUMULATIONS VERIFY...THIS STORM WILL RANK IN THE TOP 3 OF ALL TIME            
WINTER STORMS. TOP D.C. STORM...KNICKERBOCKER STORM OF JANUARY 1922             
TOTAL 28 INCHES.                                                                
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE INTRODUCING SLEET/FZRA MIX INTO                 
CHARLOTTESVILLE AND FREDERICKSBURG AREAS TONIGHT AND MON MORN. THIS             
CHANGE IS INFLUENCED BY CURRENT CONDITIONS...A MIX OF SLEET BEING               
REPORTED THERE...SHOWING WARM NOSE HAS REACHED INTO FAR S ZONES. ETA            
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH AGREE WITH THIS TREND FCST NOSE WILL WARM                
JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT...THUS FREEZING RAIN MAY MIX IN AS WELL. WILL              
CONTINUE TO MENTION SNOW/SLEET/FZRA IN FAR SE ZONES TONIGHT AND MON             
MORN. PATUXENT SOUNDING PROG SHOWS MAINLY SLEET/FZRA                            
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
STRONG SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SO               
WARM LAYER WILL HAVE HARD TIME PUSHING IN. SOUNDING PROGS SHOW THE              
FARTHEST NW THE WARMER AIR WILL GET WOULD BE ROUGHLY A LINE FROM                
GREENE CO VA TO BALTIMORE CITY. THEREFORE...S AND E OF THIS LINE                
WILL HAVE MIX OF SLEET MENTIONED TONIGHT AND MON MORN. ETA BUFKIT               
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPS ALOFT COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR THE                  
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT N AND W OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG VA TO N              
BALT CO MD.                                                                     
SIG LIFT /UL DIV...SIG WAA-LLJET...MUCHO 500-700MB LIFT/ WILL                   
CONTINUE THRU 10Z MON SW ZONES AND UNTIL 16Z NE ZONES. EVEN THOUGH              
MAJOR LIFT MOVES AWAY...UL TROF SWINGS THRU AND LL MOISTURE REMAINS             
THRU MON NIGHT. WARM LAYER EXITS WITH SFC LOW SO MIXED PRECIP THREAT            
WILL BE DONE. SCT SHSN EXPECTED THRU AFT.                                       
SNOWFALL TOTALS BY MON EVE...20 TO 26 INCHES IN ALL SNOW ZONES...16             
TO 24 INCHES IN SNOW/SLEET ZONES...10 TO 16 INCHES IN                           
SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ZONES.                                                          
REGARDING TEMPS...DO NOT BELIEVE ETA FCST OF WARMING TEMPS OVERNIGHT            
IS JUSTIFIED DUE TO STRENGTH OF SFC HIGH. IN FACT...ETA/AVN HAVE                
UNDERESTIMATED DEPTH OF SFC HIGH OVER PAST 24 HRS...THEY THOUGHT THE            
HIGH TODAY WOULD BE IN THE LOWER 20S...WE'RE STUCK IN THE TEENS. THE            
RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING TEMPS BEST. FCST OF NEARLY STATIONARY TEMPS            
TONIGHT IN ALL SNOW ZONES...A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT IN SLEET             
AREAS. FAR SE WILL PROBABLY WARM 5-10 DEGREES OVERNIGHT WHERE SOME              
WARMTH WILL MIX DOWN FROM WARM LAYER.                                           
MMARGRAF                                                                        
...LONG TERM (MON NIGHT THROUGH SUN)...                                         
DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS...KEPT THINGS PRETTY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS                  
PACKAGE. ONLY DIFFERENCES...MODIFIED MAX/MIN TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT            
WHAT I THINK WILL BE COLDER TEMPS AS A RESULT OF THE STORM. ALSO                
ADDED MENTION OF CHC OF R-S- FOR THUR NIGHT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM                  
PROGGED TO STAY W OF OUR CWA...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIXED TYPE               
PRECIP EVENT THUR NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. LEFT FRI ONLY FOR                       
PRECIP...LEAVING A CHC OF R IN...BUT WL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON THIS.               
MRF MDL FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND ADVTZING A RETURN TO SHARPLY COLDER             
TEMPS.                                                                          
SMZ                                                                             
.LWX...                                                                         
DC...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN DCZ001.                                    
MD...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013           
     MDZ014...MDZ016>018.                                                       
VA...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN VAZ021...VAZ025>031...                     
     VAZ036>042...VAZ050>057.                                                   
WV...WINTER STORM WARN THRU MON MORN WVZ048>055.                                
MARINE...SCA ANZ530>537.                                                        
TEAM LWX                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
340 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                      
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANLSYS SHOW CONTD SPLIT FLOW OVR               
NAMERICA. NRN BRANCH AND WNW FLOW STILL DOMINATING WX OVR UPR GRT               
LKS...BUT RISING HGTS OVR SCNTRL CAN/NRN PLAINS INTO THE LKS IN                 
ADVANCE OF UPR TROFFING COMING ASHORE ON THE PAC COAST INDICATE NRN             
BRANCH LIFTING N WITH DEPARTING ARCTIC VORTEX OVR HUDSON BAY/NRN                
QUEBEC. EXPANSIVE SFC HI PRES RDG IN PLACE OVR THE NW LKS WITH                  
1045MB CENTER OVR SW QUEBEC AT 15Z. AIRMASS QUITE DRY OVHD PER 12Z              
RAOBS...WITH PWAT A MEAGER 0.07 TO 0.17 INCH. MCLR OVR CWA...BUT                
STILL SOME LK SC OVR NRN LK MI UNDER SHARP INVRN ARND H95 PER 12Z               
GRB/APX SDNGS IMPACTING SE ZNS AT 16Z. ANOTHER AREA OF CLD COVER IN             
SW RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC RDG AXIS MOVG ACRS NRN MN AND IS             
BEST DEPICTED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT/RH > 70 PCT ON 290K SFC. THIS CLD              
APPEARS TO BE HEADED ENE ON A TRACK THAT WOULD MISS THE CWA TO THE N.           
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE TEMPS/CLD TRENDS THRU MON             
AS RDG FCST TO HOLD IN PLACE. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO PCPN CHCS                 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWVS COMING ASHORE ON THE PAC COAST MON NGT INTO             
WED.                                                                            
FOR TNGT...SFC HI PRES RDG AXIS PROGGED TO HOLD IN PLACE OVR CWA                
BTWN DVLPG LO PRES OFF THE E COAST AND DVLPG SFC LO PRES IN THE NRN             
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWVS COMING ASHORE IN THE PAC NW. ALL MODELS            
SHOW THE FLATTEST PRES GRADIENT LINGERING ON AN ENE-WSW AXIS FM ERY-            
MNM OVRNGT...WITH SLOWLY TIGHTENING GRADIENT FCST OVR THE NW HALF OF            
CWA. GFS/ETA SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT/HIER RH ON 290K SFC PASSING JUST N            
OF CWA...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SAT TRENDS OF CLD IN NRN MN. SINCE              
DRY AIRMASS WL BE HOLDING IN PLACE (PWAT FCST ARND 0.2 INCH)...                 
PLACES THAT CAN DECOUPLE WL BE ABLE TO RADIATE EFFICIENTLY. GIVEN               
FCST PRES FIELD...WL FCST THE LOWEST MINS BLO MOS GUIDANCE OVR                  
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SCNTRL AND E. BUT EVEN IN THESE PLACES...MINS             
WL BE QUITE A BIT HIER THAN THE NR RECORD LOWS OBSVD THIS MRNG (-29             
AT CHAMPION/-27 AT TAHQUAMENON FALLS) AS MSLP PROGGED QUITE A BIT               
LWR THAN THIS MRNG. ALSO CONCERNED THERE COULD BE SOME LK MI SC THAT            
IMPACTS THESE AREAS AS WELL AS WND UNDER LO INVRN PROGGED TO BE LGT             
SE. AREAS FM IWD TO P59 SHUD SEE THE HIEST READINGS NR MOS GUIDANCE             
WITH TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT FCST OVR THE FAR W ALL NGT. ALTHOUGH WL              
STILL FCST A WIDE RANGE OF MINS IN GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON ZNS AS SOME                
INTERIOR PLACES MAY DECOUPLE.                                                   
ON MON...SHRTWV IN PAC NW FCST AND ASSOCIATED SFC LO FCST TO REACH              
MN BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SLOWLY TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT                    
ESPECIALLY OVR THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN AS SFC HI PRES TO THE E GRDLY            
SLIDES E AND PRES FALLS. ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN FCSTG                  
INCRSG SLY FLOW ON 280K ISENTROPIC SFC (ABOUT H9) GRABBING ATLANTIC             
MSTR FLUNG INLAND BY E COAST STORM SYS INTO OH VALLEY AND DRAGGING              
THIS MSTR N INTO THE ERN ZNS BY AFTN. GIVEN DRYNESS OF AIRMASS...               
VERY LO SFC DWPTS NOW PUSHING S INTO THE OH VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC AND             
FCST PERSISTENCE OF SFC RDG AXIS INTO THE AFTN ACRS NRN LK MI/NRN               
LWR MI...PREFER GFS/NGM IDEA OF LWR SPECIFIC HUMIDITY/RH. SUSPECT               
THERE WL BE SOME HI CLDS STREAMING INTO THE WRN ZNS DURG THE AFTN IN            
ADVANCE OF INCOMING SHRTWV...BUT LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FCST LO            
RH BY GFS ON 280K-310K SFCS SUGS A MOSUNNY DAY. BOTH GFS/ETA SHOW               
H85 TEMP REACHING ARND 0C OVR THE WCNTRL ZNS BY 00Z TUE. INCRSG SSW             
GRADIENT WND SHUD ASSIST IN MIXING TO H925 ON FCST ETA SDNGS...WHICH            
WOULD RESULT IN MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO HIER ETA/GFS MOS GUIDANCE...                
ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS FM ONT-P59-MQT. THE SAME SSW FLOW OFF             
GREEN BAY/NRN LK MI ICE SHUD KEEP AREAS FM ESC-ISQ A BIT COOLER.                
SHRTWV/SFC LO IN MN PROGGED TO MOVE JUST N OF LK SUP MON NGT AND                
TOWARD JAMES BAY BY LATE TUE. ALTHOUGH CWA FALLS INTO LEFT EXIT OF              
ASSOCIATED 100KT H3 JET MAX AND GFS/ETA SHOW SOME WEAK H4-2 DVGC                
PASSING OVHD MON NGT...PCPN CHCS WITH THIS SYS WL BE HAMPERED BY                
PASSAGE OF SFC-H7 LO TO THE N AS WELL AS LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/               
MSTR INFLOW CUTOFF BY SRN STREAM SHRTWVS. WL CARRY NOTHING MORE THAN            
CHC POPS FOR SN ARRIVING W TO E MON NGT AS COMMA TAIL MSTR ON SRN               
FLANK OF SHRTWV TRACKS ACRS CWA. GIVEN FCST STEADY SW WND AND INCRSG            
CLD COVER...HAVE OPTED TO TREND MIN TEMPS TOWARD HIER ETA MOS                   
GUIDANCE NUMBERS.                                                               
BASED ON TIMING OF ASSOCIATED RH... XPCT BEST SN CHCS TO DEPART ERN             
ZNS BY EARLY TUE MRNG WITH CYC WLY FLOW/BACKWASH MSTR SWEEPING ACRS             
MAINLY NRN TIER ON TUE. ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AT H85 ABV RELATIVELY             
MILD SFC AIR WL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION OF LLVL LAPSE RATES ABV                 
STRENGTHENING INVRN IN WAKE OF SHRTWV TO ALLOW MIXING OF 30-35 KT               
WNDS FCST AT H925. WL GO WITH WINDY FOR THE EXPOSED KEWEENAW ZNS...             
BUT JUST BLUSTERY ELSEWHERE. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST                
MODEST LLVL MSTR IN CYC FLOW WL SUPPORT FLURRIES/-SHSN ALL ZNS XCPT             
THE FAR SCNTRL WHERE DOWNSLOPING WL ENHANCE DRYING. SINCE TEMPS WL              
BE STARTING RELATIVELY HI... SUSPECT READINGS WL RISE WELL INTO THE             
30S OVR THE SE WHERE W FLOW DOWNSLOPES BEFORE ARRIVAL OF H85 THERMAL            
TROF IN WAKE OF SHRTWV DURG AFTN. TEMPS SHUD REBOUND LTL OVR THE W              
BEFORE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR. SINCE UPR FLOW IS TENDING TOWARD MORE             
ZONAL...PREFER MORE MODEST ETA FCST H85 TEMPS (AS LO AS -14C OVR NW             
LK SUP AT 00Z WED) VS GFS (-18C).                                               
AS LLVL CYC FLOW LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON CWA AND RDGING/MARITIME POLAR              
AIRMASS APRCH FM THE W TUE NGT...XPCT LINGERING -SHSN/FLURRIES TO               
DIMINISH WITH CLRG ACRS THE WI BORDER ZNS DURG NGT. WNDS SHUD STAY              
UP ALL NGT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ONLY LATE...SO MIN TEMPS WL NOT             
FALL TO DWPTS FALLING WELL INTO THE TEENS AND TOWARD 10 AT IWD BY               
12Z WED. LINGERING FLURRIES ON WED MRNG WL DEPART AS RDGING MOVES               
OVHD...WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING DURG THE DAY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE              
ABV NORMAL.                                                                     
AFTER DOMINANCE OF MORE ZONAL FLOW THRU MID WEEK...EXTENDED MODELS              
POINT TOWARD REAMPLIFICATION OF NRN BRANCH TROF ACRS NAMERICA LATER             
IN WEEK/NXT WEEKEND. APPEARS THU WL BE QUIET WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS            
AS RDGING/MARITIME POLAR PACIFIC AIR IN WAKE OF TUE/ EARLY WED LGT              
PCPN MAKER PUSHES E ACRS UPR LKS IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING NRN BRANCH.            
00Z/06Z GFS INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL APRCH 0C ON THU WITH SW FLOW AND              
DRY AIRMASS/SUNSHINE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S.             
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS MILD SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH             
MODELS AGREE THAT COLDER AIR WL MOVE BACK INTO THE UPR LKS ON FRI...            
QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS AND DEGREE OF PHASING BTWN               
NRN/SRN BRANCH WAVE TRAINS. 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WAS MOST AGGRESSIVE             
AT PHASING THE BRANCHES WITH DVLPMNT OF DEEPER AND COLDER CYC FLOW              
OVR THE LKS NXT WEEKEND...SUGING A MAJOR LES EVENT FOR FRI/SAT THAT             
WOULD BE MITIGATED BY ICE COVG ON THE LK. ECMWF LESS AMPLIFIED THAN             
OTHER MODELS ON NRN BRANCH AND DEPICTS NO PHASING WITH MORE OF AN               
ARCTIC AIRMASS OOZING S AS BULK OF COLD AIR REMAINS IN CAN.                     
CNDN/UKMET MODELS OFFER COMPROMISE SOLNS. 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS              
INDICATE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN THE MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE NRN BRANCH             
SHRTWV...AND 06Z GFS F120 ALSO APPEARS TO BE BACKING AWAY FM THE                
RADICAL 00Z SOLN AS DOES 12Z RUN. WL HIGHLIGHT COLDER TEMPS FRI-SUN             
WITH MAX TEMPS BLO OPEARATIONAL MRF MOS ON FRI...BUT NR GUIDANCE OVR            
THE WEEKEND XCPT LWR OVR THE E WITH MORE OF A NNE FLOW OFF SRN                  
ONTARIO. A CHC OF SN EVERYWHERE ON FRI AS LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR            
PASSES CWA. THEN CHC SHSN OVR THE WEEKEND... MAINLY NR LK SUP.                  
COORDINATED WITH APX.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
253 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                      
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM SC ON THE DOORSTEP WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN                
DEVELOPING ACROSS ESTRN NC ATTM. RAIN...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL               
PREVAIL ACROSS ESTRN NC THROUGH ABOUT 9Z...THEN TAPER OFF. EXPECTING            
QPF OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN MOST SPOTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME RUNOFF               
PROBLEMS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL LIKELY               
RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE BANKFULL ERLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO RUNOFF            
FROM THIS EVENT. WILL ALSO CONTINUE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NRN               
OUTER BANKS EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE DECREASING LATE DUE TO STRONG             
WAVE ENERGY DIRECTED TWRDS THE COAST AND HIGH MORNING ASTRONOMICAL              
TIDE. GFS MRP FCSTG TIDAL DEPARTURES OF AROUND 1.5 FEET AT DUCK NEXT            
24 HOURS. 2 FEET WOULD BRING WATER LEVELS ABOVE 6 FEET AND PRODUCE              
OVERWASH AND SIG EROSION. THE STRONG COASTAL FRONT REMAINS JUST OFF             
THE COAST. HSE WINDS HAVE JUST SHIFTED TO SE AND THE BNDRY SHOULD               
BEGIN TO WORK WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RUC 40 AND 12Z GFS             
STILL BRINGING IT CLOSE TO THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR. THUS EXPECT                 
TEMPS TO RISE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE EVENING...THEN FALL LATE AS            
DEVELOPING SFC LOW JUST OFF HAT LATE TONIGHT SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE            
NW AND ADVECTS IN THE COOLER PIEDMONT AIRMASS. TOUGH CALL ON                    
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS CLOUDS/MIXING WILL BE COUNTERACTED BY LOW LEVEL               
TRAJECTORY FROM A VERY COOL SOURCE REGION. WILL FCST LOWS IN THE MID            
30S INLAND AND LOWER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. OUTER BANKS LOWS WILL             
RANGE FROM 45 AT MQI TO 52 AT HSE.                                              
TRICKY FCST MON. SFC LOW PULLS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT UPPER             
SYSTEM WILL CROSS ESTRN NC LATE. NOT SEEING MUCH SUPPORT FOR PCPN IN            
THE GFS WHICH HAS A SHALLOWER MOIST PROFILE THAN THE ETA. WILL CARRY            
A 30 POP FOR A MAINLY MORNING SHOWER. LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL                
PREVAIL ACROSS ESTRN NC INTO MON EVENING. CONSIDERING THAT THE                  
REMNANT WEDGE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION I OPTED TO WITH OR                
BELOW THE COLDEST GUID FOR HIGHS. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE              
MON NIGHT...BUT LOTS OF HIGH LVL MOIST WILL BE STREAMING IN FROM THE            
WEST. WITH CLOUDS/MIXING EXPECTED I TENDED TWRDS THE WARMER MAV/FWC             
MINS. ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLR OUT RAPIDLY TUE AM BUT                
RATHER THICK CI IS FCST BY THE GFS SO WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY. SFC            
HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ESTRN NC TUE AND WED. A BACKDOOR                  
FEATURE WILL SLIP S ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY            
STRONGER HIGH FROM THE N THU. NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR COOLING AS                
THIS AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN ORIGIN. GFS IS BRINGING A STRONG/MOIST               
FRONT INTO THE EAST COAST DAY 6 FOLLOWED BY SIG COOLING DAY 7.                  
MARINE...FIRST PERIOD FORECAST ALL HINGES ON POSITION OF COASTAL                
TROF AND TRACK OF SFC LOW. TROF HAVING A TUF TIME MVG TOWARD THE                
COAST ALONG OUR SRN WTRS. THE BNDRY ALREADY AT HAT AND ALONG CORE               
BANKS...BUT SOUNDS STILL SHOWING NE WINDS AT SOLID SCA SPEEDS. RUC              
DOING A GOOD JOB ATTM WITH WIND DIR...AND INCORPORATING IT AND GFS              
(WHICH IS PREFERRED AS PER PREVIOUS DISC)...THINKING BNDRY MAY STOP             
AT CAPE LOOKOUT...USING LOOKOUT AS A "PIVOT" POINT...WITH THE BNDRY             
PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUNDS TONIGHT. BASICALLY...N WINDS HANGING ON S             
OF LOOKOUT...BUT SHIFTING TO S-SE N OF LOOKOUT AND SOUNDS UNTIL LOW             
PULLS OUT AND ALL OUR WTRS GO NW. AS FOR SPEEDS...WL LEAVE UP GALE N            
OF HAT BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS...WITH SOLID SCA SOUNDS AND HAT              
TO LOOKOUT...WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS S OF LOOKOUT. OF COURSE WL            
RE-EVALUATE TROF POSITION ONE LAST TIME BEFORE ISSUE.                           
AS MENTIONED ABV...WL CONTINUE CFW N OF HAT FOR TONIGHT. BEYOND                 
TNGT'S EVENT...DECRSG/IMPRVG WINDS WITH HI PRES BUILD ACRS THE AREA             
TUE AND WED. HOWEVER SEAS WL TAKE SVRL DAYS TO COME DOWN GIVEN STRONG           
BACKSWELL ENERGY.                                                               
.MHX...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE HATTERAS N.                                       
       COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM CAPE HATTERAS N.                              
       SCA S OF CAPE HATTERAS AND SOUNDS.                                       
ELARDO/PETRO                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
1232 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND CANCELLED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT.                
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND                   
TONIGHT FOR THE COUNTIES OF FAIRFIELD...NEWBERRY...LANCASTER...                 
KERSHAW AND CHESTERFIELD.                                                       
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT                         
     SCZ015>016...SCZ020>022.                                                   
RJL                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION                                                             
1000 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2003                                                     
HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BASED ON                  
CURRENT READINGS. THE MAIN PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE ICE POTENTIAL            
IN THE NORTH PART. THE LATEST RUC INDICATES ICE COULD ACCUMULATE                
AROUND ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH IN LANCASTER COUNTY BY SUNSET...BUT               
BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS BECAUSE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE               
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS HOLDING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE            
FREEZING. MSAS SHOWS NO PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA               
AND ALSO NO TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. ALSO ACCUMULATION SHOULD             
BE LIMITED BY WARM SOIL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN FALLING THROUGH H85               
TEMPERATURES NEAR 10. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR STEADY TONIGHT            
AND THE LATEST ETA SHOWS MID-LEVEL DRYING AND DIMINISHED QPF THIS               
EVENING. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS DRYING. EARLY THIS             
AFTERNOON WE WILL PROBABLY CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WATCH AND JUST               
HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF FAIRFIELD...                 
NEWBERRY... LANCASTER...KERSHAW AND CHESTERFIELD.                               
.CAE...                                                                         
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT SCZ015>016...SCZ020>022.                        
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONE SCZ015.                         
RJL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc