EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
255 AM PDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY              
INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.                     
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL COOL SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST             
WITH LITTLE CHANGE INLAND. A MINOR INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL             
MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS             
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY WITH SOME DRYING FOR TUESDAY.                
BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ALG THE W CST OF NOAM WIH A HIGH                     
AMPLITUDE RDG ALG THE CST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PAC NW WITH A             
WK UPR LOW TO THE S...OFF THE CNTRL CA CST. STRONG WESTERLIES N OF              
40N ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTRL PAC WL IMPACT THIS BLOCK WITH THE BLOCK            
PROGESSING SLOWLY INLAND ALG THE W CST TODAY AND TUE WITH THE WK UPR            
LOW OFF THE CNTRL CA CST MOVG SLOWLY INLAND INTO CNTRL CA TODAY AND             
TUE. IMPACTS WL BE SLIGHT IN SRN CA WITH A MINOR INCR IN LOW LVL                
ONSHR FLOW...MORE SO IN THE FORM OF A DECR IN OFSHR TRENDS AT NIGHT             
THAN FM AN INCR IN THE ONSHR FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRYING OF A            
MINOR INTRUSION OF MID LVL MONSOONAL MSTR SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TUE.                
AVN/ETA/NGM WIDELY DIVERGENT IN THEIR TRENDS WITH THIS MID LVL MSTR             
WITH ETA PREFERRED IN SHOWING ONLY A GRADUAL DRYING FOR TUE. WL ADD             
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO MTNS/DESERTS                
TODAY AS RUC/MAPS HAS QPF ALG N/S RANGES BETWEEN 21Z/00Z TODAY FM               
THE SBD MTNS S. ETA SHOWS LTL CHANGE IN PW'S ACROSS SRN CA THRU TUE             
WITH A SHARP GRADIENT ACROSS NRN SXNS OF SRN CA BETWEEN HIGHER                  
VALUES TO THE SE AND LWR VALUES TO THE NW. WITH MONSOONAL MSTR                  
CONTINUING TO LINGER INTO TUE...CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A             
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MTNS/DESERTS DURG PK HEATING...BUT WL NOT             
INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME.                                                         
EXTENDED...MDLS DIFFER SOMEWHAT OVR THE WEST...BUT GENERALLY                    
MAINTAIN A WK UPR TROUGH OVR CA...SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT A                       
SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MSTR INTO SRN CA...BUT INSUFFICIENT             
TO ALLOW MID LVL MONSOONAL MSTR TO COMPLETELY EXIT THE ERN DESERTS              
OF SRN CA. IN GENERAL...LTL CHANGE FM THE PRESENT WITH SEASONAL                 
TEMPERATURES INLAND AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NR THE               
CST DUE TO LWR THAN NORMAL SST'S OVR THE ADJ CSTL WTRS.                         
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON HURRICANE "FLOYD"...PLEASE REFER TO THE               
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/INDEX_SPECIAL.HTML             
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KHNX 130951  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL                                   
925 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC             
COAST WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN FL             
PANHANDLE. NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE               
FORECAST AREA...SO WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT BE A PLAYER IN              
TODAYS WEATHER. REVIEW OF MORNING KTBW SOUNDING REVEALS PWATS JUST              
OVER 2 INCHES AND LI'S AT -2. EVEN THOUGH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND               
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 06Z RUC AND 03Z            
MESO-ETA SHOW INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ON WESTERN SIDE OF HURRICANE                
FLOYD OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA BY EARLY THIS           
AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ~-4 TO -5 C              
SHOULD KEEP PROSPECTS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN                  
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO PLAN TO TRIM BACK ON POPS SOME FROM PREVIOUS                 
PACKAGE IN MORNING UPDATE.                                                      
MARINE...CURRENT BUOY DATA INDICATING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW             
WITH BUOY036 WEST OF BAYPORT NOW INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15               
KNOTS. ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR WORD TWEAKING PREVIOUS MARINE PACKAGE              
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO REAL CHANGES EXPECTED AT THE MOMENT.                 
THANKS FOR COORD KMLB. COASTAL PACKAGE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                     
MCMICHAEL                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 131311  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
90 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                       
AT SURFACE GA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AND FRONT TO NORTHWEST AND                  
APPROACHING FLOYD FROM SOUTHEAST. STRONG SUSBIDENCE ON NW SIDE OF               
FLOYD CREATING ALMOST CLEAR SKIES ALL BUT NEAR APPROACHING FRONT.               
THUS WILL GO FAIR SOUTH TONIGHT VS PC.                                          
CONVERGENCE SEEN IN SURFACE WIND FIELD S AL WHERE CONVECTION FIRING.            
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN FORM O UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THRU            
TROF SEEN IN SATELLITE DATA AS HUMP OR BOW IN CI FIELD PULLING AWAY             
NNE. THIS SEEN BY RUC/MESOETA AND OTHER MODELS. JET ASSOCIATED VORT             
SHEARING, THUS VERY LIGHT PRECIP HAS ENDED N AL AND CLOUDS THINING              
AS JET PASSES. SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS NW GA TONIGHT, BUT                  
WILL KEEP PC NW GA TONIGHT.                                                     
SURFACE WINDS BECOME GENERALLY NORTH DURING NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP SOME            
MENTION OF WIND MOST AREAS.                                                     
FORECAST LOWS IN LINE WITH LOCAL SCHEME AND NEW LAPS AND 850 TEMPS.             
THUS LITTLE TO NO CHANGE. WILL STILL GET GOOD RADIATION WHERE                   
SUSBIDENCE KEEPS SKIES CLEAR AS TINKNESS CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT.                
ATL...                                                                          
...HURRICANE WATCH FOR GA COAST IS IN EFFECT...                                 
...HURRICANE WARNING FOR CAMDEN COUNTY IS IN EFFECT                             
...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY.                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 132313 AMD  ga                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
930 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
00Z HAND ANALYZED SFC CHART SHOWING THAT THE FRONT IS MOVING VERY               
SLOWLY ACRSS E KY WITH A BIT OF A WAVE ON THE FRONT FROM N TN TO NEAR           
LOZ TO LEX. THE REAL FRONT OR DEWPOINT FRONT (OR POST FRONTAL TROFF)            
LAGS SOME 100 TO 150 MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. SAT PIXS SHOW CLOUDS               
OVERALL ARE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE               
RATHER SLOW TO MOVE OUT OVER E KY. WAVE ON BNDRY ALSO SEEMS TO BE               
ENHANCING THE -SHRA ACTIVITY. MODELS NOT HANDLING THE WAVE ON THE               
FRONT. 21Z RUC AND 18Z MESOETA ARE CLOSE ON POSITION OF MAIN                    
BNDRY.                                                                          
RADAR LOOPS STILL SHOWING A FEW -SHRAS OVER S AND SW PARTS OF THE CWA.          
RADARS ALSO SHOWING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL TN MOVING             
ENE. ALL MODELS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE E           
TNGHT AND TOMORROW, AND RHS WILL DECR AND ALL PCPN WILL END..IN FACT            
MODELS INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD HAVE ALREADY ENDED. CROSS SECTIONS             
SHOW THAT RHS SHOULD DECR DRAMATICALLY BY 12Z IN THE MORNING...LAMPS            
DATA ACRSS THE CWA SHOWING THAT SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MC...WHILE MOS              
SHOWING SKIES TO GO CLR SHORTLY.                                                
WILL SORT ALL OF THIS OUT AND PONDER ON THINGS WHILE I WATCH ONE OR             
TWO MORE VOLUME SCANS AND SAT PIXS...THEN WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TWEAK            
WORDING AROUND FOR POPS AND SKY COVER...BASED SOMEWHAT ON LAST                  
MINUTE/CURRENT TRENDS.                                                          
.JKL...NONE.                                                                    
HALL                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KJKL 131905  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1005 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
AS EXPECTED THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE SHRA HAS DECREASED                
OVER THE CWA. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS OVER THE KEWEENAW HAS BEEN                  
PERSISTANT AND MAY BE LAKE ENHANCED. WILL KEEP STRONGER WORDING IN              
THOSE COUNTIES. WILL TAKE OUT SHOWERS EAST AS THE SHOWERS HAVE                  
DISSAPATED AND NO FORCING LOOMS IMMEDATELY UPSTREAM.                            
THE PARENT UL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE /PER 00Z RUC/ LATE TONIGHT              
AND EARLY TOMORROW. HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHRTWV SPOKE               
AROUND THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SWING INTO THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING.             
I EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT MID MORNING TO NOON            
TIME AND BEGIN MOVING EAST WITH THE INCREASED LIFT FROM THE PVA AND             
THE -2C COOLER 500MB TEMPS. MID LEVEL CANOPY OF CLOUDS SHOULD ENSURE            
LESS SUN TOMORROW THAN THERE WAS TODAY.                                         
WILL FRESHEN THE WORDING AND TAKE A LOOK AT 2Z TEMPS BEFORE SENDING             
ZONES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS.                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ALTOE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 140148  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1110 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
QUESTION THIS UPDATE WILL BE PRECIP/CLOUDS.                                     
WATER VAPOR LOOP/12Z RAOBS SHOW BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH             
OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...WITH A MULTITUDE OF EMBEDDED                       
SHORTWAVES. 14Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE FEATURE VERY NEAR             
THE UPPER LOW...WITH A TROUGH TRAILING ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER.                  
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR                 
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. 12Z RUC/03Z MESOETA KEEP ANY QPF             
TO OVER THE WESTERN CWA TODAY. RUC SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER LIS IN THE -1           
TO 1C RANGE...THE THE MOST UNSTABLE LIS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.                  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR IWD...MQT...AND ERY SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN            
CWA WITH SLIGHT FORCING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE.                               
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PROVIDED THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR TSRA                    
DEVELOPMENT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. KMQT 88D/NLDN DATA SHOW            
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED INTO CANADA. 03Z MESOETA INDICATED CAPES            
OF 600-700 J/KG OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...AND BROUGHT              
THIS BULLSEYE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORE THIS MORNING. THIS            
AGREES QUITE WELL WITH THE AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT.               
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MESOETA FORECASTS CAPES <200 J/KG FOR THE               
CWA. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SHOWERS TODAY.                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE WESTERN CWA PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY            
WITH MORE CLOUDS ON THE WAY. CLEAR BREAKS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO              
FILL IN. EASTERN CWA IS PRETTY MUCH CLEAR BUT CU WILL DEVELOP WITH A            
LITTLE HEATING AHEAD OF SYNOPTICALLY FORCED CLOUD COVER APPROACHING             
FROM THE WEST.                                                                  
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THE SOUTHERN                        
CWA...CLOSER TO A SPEED MAX OVER WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL PICK UP                  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE JET MOVES NORTHEAST. A FEW TWEAKS            
ARE NECESSARY TO THE TEMPS...WITH CHANGES IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP             
DURATION.                                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 131457  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1055 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
STRONG OCCLUDED SFC LOW CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN N OF LAKE                     
SUPERIOR...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF CWA. FOG             
HAS LIFTED INTO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN LOWER MI                
LATE THIS MORNING. SUBTLE BOUNDARY HAS MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS NW LOWER            
MI...WITH A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT AND DROP IN DWPT BEHIND IT.                       
MODIFIED 12Z APX SOUNDING FOR 21Z THIS AFTERNOON YIELDS LESS THAN               
200 CAPE AND LI'S OF -1...WITH THE MAJORITY OF INSTABILITY REMAINING            
IN LOW LEVELS. LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE ARRIVAL OF                     
SIGNIFICANT CAA AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS CWA WILL HOLD OFF               
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE               
LOW LEVELS WILL SPELL OUT DIURNAL CU AND SHRA ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR             
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR LAKE CONTRIBUTION TONIGHT               
INTO TUESDAY.                                                                   
WILL FRESHEN WORDING FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL STICK WITH THE                
MAIN THEME OF PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ALL LOCATIONS.            
WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE MENTION OF THUNDER IN ERN UPR AND NW AND N               
CENTRAL LOWER MI ZONES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HALF                 
HOUR. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND MOISTURE IN THE DRY              
SLOT IS NOT PLENTIFUL...BUT BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION                  
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO FOCUS CONVECTION ALONG IT AND FEED OFF             
ANY LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.                                              
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMQT 130831  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LOW.                  
WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH                      
CIRCULATION CENTER JUST TO THE WEST OF THE UP. 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWS             
DRY SLOT OVER WEST AND CENTRAL UP AND MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 05Z.             
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THIS LOW SLOWLY                      
NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z TUE...AND                   
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AT 00Z WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...SOME DIFFERENCES IN            
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE CLOSED LOW.                    
NGM A LITTLE WETTER THAN ETA...ESPECIALLY TODAY WHEN ETA KEEPS ALL              
BUT WESTERN CWA DRY UNTIL LATE. MOS POPS ALSO RUNNING HIGHER                    
THAN THE 12Z MOS. NGM SHOWS LIGHT PRECIP TO A MQT-IMT LINE BY 18Z               
TODAY AND NEAR ERY BY 00Z TONIGHT. THE NGM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE               
SHORTWAVES VERY WELL...SO I DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN IT. RUC              
AND MESOETA DO OK JOB OF IDENTIFYING THE SHORTWAVES NORTH OF LAKE               
SUPERIOR AND ENTERING NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THEY ALSO HAVE A PRETTY               
GOOD HANDLE ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF SURFACE LOW CENTERED NORTH              
OF LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                               
TODAY...FA UNDER AREA OF WEAK 700-300MB Q-VEC DIVERGENCE BEHIND                 
EXITING SHORTWAVES. 1000-500MB RH INCREASES DURING THE DAY. ETA DOES            
SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLING SFC FEATURES AT 6Z MON...SO WILL LEAN                  
TOWARDS ITS SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH               
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT ADD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. AFTER                  
COORDINATING WITH GRB AND APN...WILL ADD LOW CHANCE POPS IN                     
WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES AND IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.                          
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN CIRCULATION. UPPER LOW                
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT                   
INCREASE IN SFC CONVERGENCE. 1000-500MB RH REMAINS AOA 70 PERCENT               
OVER THE UP...WITH 1000-850MB RH IN THE 80-90 PERCENT RANGE. MESOETA            
SHOWS AREA OF QVEC CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH              
MEASURABLE PRECIP FROM KEWEENAW STRETCHING SOUTHWEST BY 00Z. THIS               
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE SHORTWAVE             
MOVES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.                                                     
TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST AVN MAINTAINS HIGH RH OVER CWA. AVN ALSO                 
GENERATES LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE UP AS 500MB TROF CROSS THE FA                   
OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS IN LINE WITH THE 48 HOUR FORECASTS OF THE                 
NGM/ETA. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP THINGS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED             
SHOWERS EARLY.                                                                  
COORD WITH GRB...APN.                                                           
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JS                                                                              
 mi                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1042 AM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE             
CWA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LATEST RUC AND 12Z ETA INITIALIZED A VORT            
MAX OVER NW MN WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS                
FEATURE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME 700 MB            
OMEGA AND THETA-E ADVECTION PROGGED ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN                
CWA. MORNING RAOBS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAPE (200-400 J/KG).             
THIS COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP SOME SHOWERS             
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS               
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TO THE NORTH AND EAST            
OF KMSP. WILL CUT BACK A LITTLE ON POPS OVER THE WEST AND USE WIDELY            
SCATTERED TERMINOLOGY.                                                          
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
HILTBRAND                                                                       
 mn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
946 PM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
LOSS OF INSOLATION...DESPITE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAS                 
RESULTED IN DIMINISHED CONVECTION OVER THE FA. RUC ISENTROPIC FIELDS            
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM SITUATION. IN THE 300-305K                 
THETA LAYER...WEAK VERTICAL MOTION INDICATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND              
BEHIND FRONT DUE PRIMARILY TO RISING THETA SURFACES. ABOVE                      
305K...DOWNGLIDE DOMINATING AND THUS SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL                     
CONTINUE TO ERODE MID/UPPER CLOUD DECK WITH TIME. THIS ALREADY BEING            
SEEN IN LATEST IR SERIES. EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO              
SUPPRESS FORCING EFFECTS OF FRONT TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY             
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...REMOVED POPS.                                            
.JAN...                                                                         
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
26                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS74 KJAN 131926  ms                                      

NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV                                                
910 PM PDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
WEAK UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF RENO...BUT MOISTURE IS MAINLY FROM NV               
EASTWARD. DEFORMATION AXIS FROM LAST FEW DAYS MOVED NORTHWARD TO                
EXTREME NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING...BUT ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCD                
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WEAKENING. SOME CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER                
NORTH CENTRAL NV WITH WEAK JET W-E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NV CAUSING              
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE...MAINLY OVER LINCOLN AND NYE                            
COUNTIES...BUT THAT ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ZONE 12 AND                 
INTO ZONE 11 THROUGH THE NIGHT SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THERE.                     
CONVECTION FIRING IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAINLY DUE TO DYNAMICS NEAR                
LOW...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZONE 6 TONIGHT. DRY AIR OVER OR                
ASSOCD WITH WEAK RIDGE IS SPREADING INTO NWRN NV SO WILL REMOVE                 
ALL MENTION OF POPS IN ZONE 6 AND ONLY PC/SLIGHT CHANCE ZONE 7.                 
00Z MODELS JUST COMING IN. ETA AND RUC SHOW QUICK MOVING LOW                    
BECOMING OPEN TROF AND EXITING EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NGM STALLS                
LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL NV EARLY TUESDAY AND MUCH MORE MOIST.                     
BELIEVE MOVEMENT MAY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AND MOISTURE CONFINED              
TO MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NV ON TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR                   
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE EAST CENTRAL NV SO WILL HIT ZONE 12 AND                  
SOUTHERN ZONE 12 HARDER ON TUESDAY.                SL                           
.EKO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS65 KREV 140410  nv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
845 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
H20 VAP LOOP OVERLAYED WITH RUC ANALYSIS WINDS SHOWS A HEALTHY                  
JETSTREAK MOVG AROUND EAST SIDE OF OCCLUDED LOW WITH DIVERGENT RRQ              
PROMOTING ENTRANCE REGION LIFT IN TANDEM WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM             
FRONTAL BNDRY. ALSO...A S/WV IS SHOWING UP DIVING INTO THE BASE OF              
THE TROF OVER NEBRASKA...THUS THE NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT RAIN HAS                
BEEN GIVEN A STRONGER EWD KICK AND IS MOVING EASILY INTO CWFA.                  
MESO-ETA QPF FIELDS DEPICTED THIS IDEA WELL...ALTHO A BIT SLOWER                
THAN REALITY AND CONTINUE SOME LGT PCP MOVING INTO CWA THRU THE                 
NIGHT. IT ALSO PROGS THE JETSTREAK TO LIFT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO               
CANADA WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO THE LIFT AND A DRYING OF THE QPF.              
SOME DISRUPTION OF THE RAIN SHIELD ALREADY BEING NOTED OVER SWRN PA.            
ALL THIS MAKES FOR A TOUGH FCST TO WORD OVER AREA...BUT IN LIGHT OF             
THE DEVELOPMENTS WILL HAVE TO NOW CRANK UP THE POPS FOR PERIODS OF              
LGT RA ALL BUT ERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME DOUBT THAT                
STEADY RAIN WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR AS IT SHOULD BREAK UP THROUGH THE             
NIGHT UNDER WKNG DYNX. WILL CARRY SCT SHRA IN THE CATS AND POCS.                
DWPTS SURGE INTO THE LWR 60S UNDER THE CLDS...SO WL NEED TO RAISE               
MINS A BIT TONITE.                                                              
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BREWSTER                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 140029  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
958 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
IR PIX SHOW SCU/CU BLOWING IN OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS SRN CSTL AREA OF             
NC. PLENTY OF CLOUDS POISED OFFSHORE SO WILL LIKELY SEE A PTSNY DAY             
AT BEST AROUND HERE. COULD MOVE INTO GRAND STRAND LATER THIS AFTN SO            
WILL LEAN TOWARD BECMG PTSNY THERE. ELSEWHERE... PLENTY OF SUN                  
PREVAILS THIS MRNG AS HI PRES KEEPS ITS HOLD ON THE AREA. 12Z                   
SOUNDINGS FROM CHS/MHX SHOW HIGHER RH AROUND H8 SO SCT CU A POSSIBILITY         
THIS AFTN. WILL MAINTAIN MOSNY FCST INLAND. AFTN TEMPS LOOK FINE.               
CWF: SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 7-8 FT OFFSHORE W/ 4-5 FT SWELL. WINDS              
15-20 OFFSHORE BUT CLOSER TO 10-15 NEAR SHORE. MAY TWEAK INITIAL                
CONDITIONS BASED ON 15Z OMR. 12Z RUC & 03Z MESO-ETA AGREE W/ A                  
GENERAL 15-20 KT FCST SO WILL CONTINUE THAT PORTION OF IT. WILL                 
ISSUE FOLLOW-UP MWS TO CONTINUE HEAVY WORDING OF SWELLS.                        
.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.              
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KRAH 131349  nc                                      

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
940 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
IT JUST STARTED RAINING AT ERI AND PCPN AMNTS FM NRN OH MUCH LESS               
THAN IT WOULD SEEM LOOKING AT JUST REFLECTIVITIES ON THE REGIONAL               
MOSAIC. STILL LIKE THE SOUND OF SPRINKLES BETTER THAN SHOWERS FOR               
MOST OF FA. WL SEE WHAT I CAN DO ABT FIRST PD...UNLIKE MID SHIFT...             
HAVE PLENTY OF REASONS TO DOUBT THE NGM. RUC AND MM5 BOTH MUCH DRIER            
THAN NGM AND ETA SOLNS...WITH MESOETA IN BETWEEN. TIMING APPEARS                
SIMILAR WRT FNT IN ALL MDLS (SLOW SLOW SLOW). MUST THEREFORE USE                
CURR (DRY) TRENDS AND WL CUT BACK ON MOST PRECIP WORDING. TEMPS MAY             
NEED TO BE TWEAKED FOR CLD COVER.                                               
WORK ZONES SOON.                                                                
.CTP...NONE.                                                                    
DANGELO                                                                         
 pa                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
857 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
IR SAT LOOPS INDICATE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING               
EAST INTO THE NC MTNS. 21Z RUC DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER MODEL TRENDS               
IN DIMINISHING MEAN RH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT THANKS              
TO WEAKENING FORCING & UPPER JET DYNAMICS LIFTING FURTHER NEWD AWAY             
FROM THE AREA. SO...PC MTNS...M CLR ELSEWHERE LOOKS GOOD. LOOKING               
AT 00Z OBS...MOST AREAS RUNNING ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN               
MOS & NEW LAMP DATA DOES SHADE MINS UP A TAD...BUT OVERALL MIN                  
TEMP FCSTS ON TRACK.                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 140042  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1012 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR STASIS AS WEAK SFC RIDGE KEEPS A DRY AIR-MASS               
OVER THE REGION. 09Z RUC DRIES OUT THE FRONTAL BAND SUBSTANTIALLY AS            
IT ENTERS THE WRN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 12Z UPPER AIR SHOWS                
STRONG H3 JET STREAK PULLING INTO THE UPPER MID-WEST. AS THE JET                
IS PULLING AWAY AND RISES TO THE WEST OF THE SFC FRONT ARE NOT THAT             
HIGH...FEEL EVEN THE FAR WRN MTNS WL BE E OF THE CLOUD CANOPY.                  
CURRENT ZONE TEMPS LOOK PERFECT.                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 131359  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
910 PM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
LATEST SFC ANLYS SHOWS WEAK SFC TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF 5H            
VORT TAIL IDENTIFIED ON 00Z RUC. A FEW LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG              
TROUGH. AREA OF COVEREAGE IS MINOR...SO WILL ADD ONE MORE GROUP TO              
CURRENT FCST PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR. PCPN TREND WOULD INDICATE THAT             
PCPN WILL BE OUT OF CWA BY MIDNIGHT...SO WILL WORD AS SUCH. WILL                
MAKE SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO SKY COVER AND WINDS AND SEND OUT                  
UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE SHORTLY.                                                   
.ABR...NONE.                                                                    
HINTZ                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KFSD 140116  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
812 PM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
WEALTH OF MID CLOUDS SLIDING SE THRU SD AS NEXT LOBE ROTATES ARND               
ONTARIO UPPR LOW.   CORE OF UPPR CIRC IS NRG KBIS ARND 01Z...FASTER             
FASTER THAN 12Z ETA FCST POSN...AND SUPRISINGLY WELL AHEAD OF 03Z               
FCST RUC PLACEMENT.  TRACJECTORY OF CORE CENTER TAKES BTWN KHON AND             
KBKX ARND 06Z.  SCT -RA ARND BOTH KMBG AND KBIS TESTAMENT TO DECENT             
DYNAMICS...AND WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED FOR A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES INTO             
CWA.  SOME MID LVL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ON KBIS SNDG WHEN COMPARED              
TO DOWNSTREAM AT KABR...AND JUST SAW A LIGHTNING HIT ARND KBIS AS               
WELL.  HMMM.  DESPITE A MODEL EXPECTED WKNG TREND TO DYNAMIC FIELDS             
AND LOSS OF SOLAR COMP...WL STILL ADD IN MNTN OF MEASURABLE PCPN                
THRU NERN 1/3 TO HALF OF CWA.  OTRW...MOST DIFFICULT PART OF UPDATE             
PACKAGE IS PROPER WORDING FOR CLOUD TRENDS...AND WHAT EFFECT WL HAVE            
ON LOWS.  CLOUDCOVER SHOULD VARY...CLEARING BEHING THIS IMPULSE                 
AGAIN LTR TNGT.                                                                 
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 132030  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES, TN                               
950 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
HAVE BEEN WATCHING WEAK RETURNS ON KMRX 88D MOVING EAST INTO OUR                
NE PLATEAU COUNTIES. THUS FAR...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MUCH IF ANY             
PCPN IS REACHING THE EXTREMELY DRY SURFACE BELOW. SO MAINLY AN AREA             
OF MID DECK CLOUDS ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD            
FRONT. MY 11Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO MIDDLE TN             
WITH FRONT THRU MUCH OF INDIANA...BARELY INTO FAR WRN KY AND CLOSE              
TO ENTERING NW CORNER OF TN. THIS ALL SLIDES SLOWLY E INTO THE CWA              
BY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT WITHOUT MUCH DYNAMICS/LIFT SO WILL              
JUST MENTION SPRINKLES FOR ALL ZONES TONIGHT...PER DISCUSSION WITH              
PREVIOUS SHIFT AND LONG TERM FORECASTER THIS SHIFT.                             
OTHERWISE...FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL CHANGE INCREASING CLOUDS TO               
MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THIS AFTN. PLATEAU COUNTIES HAVE BEEN MOISTENING              
UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND PER LOOK AT 09Z RUC...WILL INCREASE                
RAIN CHANCES T0 30% THERE FOR THIS AFTN. EASTERN MOST CWA SEEMS TO              
STILL BE UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGING...SO WILL              
MAINTAIN DRY FORECASTS ELSEWHERE. PARTIAL BNA SOUNDING WAS NOT MUCH             
HELP WITH TEMP FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...BUT WILL NOT LIKELY TWEAK               
MAX TEMPS ANY AT THIS POINT. RNK 12Z SOUNDING WAS GENERALLY DRY                 
...STABLE AND STRONGLY CAPPED.                                                  
.MRX...NONE.                                                                    
TG                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMEG 130819  tn                                      

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
810 PM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
DRIER AIR SLOWLY BUT STEADILY INVADING FORECAST AREA.  UNIFORM FLOW             
DEEPENING AND SHORT WAVE INDICATED IN SAT PIX/ETA/RUC WILL SLIDE                
NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.  THUS WILL REMOVE POPS ALL BUT                        
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TWEAK WINDS.  CAA ALL BUT                    
NON-EXISTENT AND TEMPS LOOK TO HOLD IN MID AND UPPER 60S AS FORECAST            
EVEN IN DRYING ATMOSPHERE.                                                      
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
10                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KCRP 140057  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
1140 AM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EXCEPT FOR                   
HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES WHERE MOST OF THE STRATUS HAS                 
ERODED. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED THINNING OF                    
THE STRATUS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WHILE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST            
OVER THE CENTRAL COUNTIES. RADAR INDICATED A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS             
OVER NORTHERN SAN SABA COUNTY.                                                  
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS            
WILL BREAK UP. THE 15Z RUC MODEL INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL                   
HUMIDITIES WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z WITH                 
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.                    
HOWEVER...OUR LOCAL SHORT TERM FORECAST PROGRAM INDICATED THAT                  
TEMPERATURES WOULD ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S WITH A 2 PM CLEARING.            
CURRENT PLAN IS TO GO WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY                
WITH SAME TEMPERATURES...WHILE ELSEWHERE I WILL KEEP IT CLOUDY                  
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS LATE AND KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A                  
NOTCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REMOVED EXCEPT FOR BROWN AND SAN                    
SABA COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE                       
MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE             
IS FINALLY THE REAL DEAL.                                                       
.SJT...NONE.                                                                    
10                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KEPZ 131603 AMD  tx                                  

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX                                      
1002 AM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                     
FRONT IS SLOWLY SEEPING DOWN INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING.  BECAUSE            
OF THIS...IT SEEMS THAT AN UBRUPT INCREASE IN WINDS USUALLY SEEN                
HERE WILL NOT OCCUR.  VISIBLE SATELLITE PROBABLY SHOWING THE BEST               
DEPICTION OF MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AROUND A KLFK-KAUS-KHDO LINE.              
STILL SOME PRESSURE RISES OCCURING...SO FRONT WILL MAKE A LITTLE                
MORE PROGRESS BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR OR AROUND NORTERN CWFA            
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO 12Z RUC POSITION.  AS A RESULT...             
PRECIP/CLOUD AND TEMP FORECAST STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.  OTHER THAN              
REMOVING SOME WORDING TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY                 
LEAVE IT AS IS.  UPDATE WILL BE OUT PROBABLY AOA 11 AM.                         
MAY LOWER THE WINDS A LITTLE FOR THE BAYS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SINCE            
MAIN BODY OF FRONT WILL BE LATER TODAY.                                         
.CRP...NONE.                                                                    
86/GW                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 131446  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM                             
223 AM MDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
A COOL FRONT FROM THE EAST PLAINS PUSHED THROUGH OUR REGION                     
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY EAST WINDS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...                
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS INCLUDING LAS CRUCES AND EAST EL PASO.             
THE COOL EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES               
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.  TONIGHTS THE WINDS WILL               
BEGIN TO VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND DIMINISH AS THE BRUNT OF THE COLD                
HEADS SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TUESDAY            
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS OVER THE LAND OF                  
ENCHANTMENT.                                                                    
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
FRONT PASSING AS PROGGED AND PRODUCING TSRA AS PROMISED BY THE NGM.             
0.2 INCH RECORDED IN LRU JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SACRAMENTO MTN                 
TOWERS/11-4 IR SATELLITE SHOWING FOG/LOW CLDS/-RA IN UPSLOPE THERE.             
06Z SFC ANAL SHOWS 11MB AMA-ELP DIFFERENCE DIMINISHING TO ABOUT 6MB             
BY 00Z AND 4MB BY 12Z TUE.  WINDS WILL VEER TO SE THIS EVENING SO               
WILL LOSE THE UPSLOPE SACRAMENTO CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY             
EVENING.  COLDEST BACKDOOR AIR HEADING SOUTH OF THE BORDER. AS SFC              
WINDS VEER TO SE...EXPECT SOME UPSLOPE FORCING FOR THE SOUTHERN GILA            
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL UP POPS THERE.  WILL KEEP FCST TEMPS            
BELOW GUIDANCE ALSO WITH LAMP AND COLD-BIASED RUC COOLER THAN MOS.              
COOL NIGHT TUE AS THE SFC GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.  THEN RECOVERY             
BEGINS TUE-WED AS UPPER HIGH RETURNS.  SAME OLD TIRED LOW-GRADE                 
MAX-HEATING POPS LOOKS REASONABLE BUT WITH WESTERLIES WORKING SOUTH             
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.                                                
EL PASO               BB  84/ 58/ 86/ 61/ 88  21112                             
LAS CRUCES            BB  84/ 56/ 84/ 58/ 86  21112                             
ALAMOGORDO            BB  82/ 55/ 84/ 57/ 86  21112                             
CLOUDCROFT            CB  63/ 39/ 67/ 40/ 69  41112                             
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB  82/ 56/ 84/ 58/ 86  21112                             
SILVER CITY           BB  82/ 47/ 82/ 50/ 84  23222                             
DEMING                BB  84/ 55/ 85/ 56/ 87  22112                             
LORDSBURG             BB  87/ 59/ 87/ 57/ 89  22112                             
.ELP...NONE                                                                     
06 RAMEY                                                                        
N                                                                               
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KHGX 130818  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
855 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
IR PICS CONT TO SHOW BAND OF DMNSHG CLDNS/-SHRA ASSOCD WITH                     
PRE-FRONTAL BNDRY ALONG THE WRN SLOPES THIS EVE...BUT MOST HAVING A             
HARD TIME MOVG EAST OF THE RIDGES ATTM. GIVEN AXIS OF BEST THETA                
STILL TO THE WEST AND LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA INDICATING SOME INCRS IN              
MID/LOW LVL RH WEST OF THE BLUE RDG WILL LKLY SEE THIS TREND CONT               
OVRNGT. WITH REG RADARS SHOWING WDLY SCT -SHRA MOVG NEWD FROM TN                
WILL HOLD ON TO AN ISOLD SHWR CHC FAR WEST OVRNGT ALTHO CVRG LOOKS              
TO BE QUITE SPARSE. ELSW THINK PC/MSTLY CLDY(PSBL SPRINKLE) THE BEST BET        
ACROSS THE BLUE RDG/NRV AS SOME MID CLDNS GRDLY SPILLS OVER...OTRW              
BECMG PC EAST AS INCRSG MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE NC COAST GRDLY             
SPREADS INLAND LATE. EXPECT ENOUGH EARLY CLDNS OVER THE WEST AND SLGTLY         
HIGHER DEWPTS EAST TO HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT MORE THAN LAST NGT SO MAY             
BUMP UP IN SPOTS.                                                               
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
JH                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 131932  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
305 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED RNK CWA LOCATED BETWEEN TWO                 
AREAS OF CLOUDS. ONE AREA CREATED BY TROF ALONG EAST COAST COMBINED             
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR (AS SEEN IN THE MSAS              
SFC LI AND SFC MOISTURE FLUX). SECOND AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH            
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE           
AND SFC OBS INDICATED SHOWERS (NO STRIKES ON THE LDS) ENTERING THE              
WESTERN SLOPES. THE MME SE PLACES THE AXIS OF PCP NORTH OF FA IN THE            
SHORT TERM. THE 15Z RUC PIVOTS A WEAK VORT AROUND THE BASE OF THE               
TROF WITH A LIGHT PCPN PRINTED OUT FOR SE WEST VIRGINIA TONIGHT. FOR            
ZONES WILL INCLUDE CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE WEST FOR                   
TONIGHT. LONGWAVE TROF OVER CENTRAL US WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENE INTO            
THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. QUESTION         
OF THIS PACKAGE IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH HURRICANE FLOYD ? AT 2 PM              
AST...CENTER OF CAT 4 HURRICANE FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2 N AND               
73.0 WEST...ABOUT 470 MILES ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FLOYD IS MOVING               
TOWARDS THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NW IS              
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ON                    
TUESDAY. MAX SUS WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH AND PRES WAS 926 MB. SEE THE            
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR LATEST ADVISORY AND PATH. SURROUNDING             
WFOS...THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION CALLS AND DISCUSSION. ZONE WILL              
BE OUT AROUND 335 PM. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.                                        
.RNK                                                                            
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
KK                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KAKQ 131425  va                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV                                          
920 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD TO KEEP SOME SHRWS IN EAST TNITE.  RUC PICKS            
UP ON WEAK WAVE LIFTING NEWD THRU TN AT TIME.  CLDS FROM THIS                   
FEATURE ALONG WITH VRY SLOW MVMNT OF FRNT WILL LIKELY KEEP TMPS A               
BIT MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FCST...SO WILL RAISE MINS A TOUCH...ESPCLY            
IN EAST.                                                                        
.RLX...                                                                         
WV...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
.END / JMV                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KRLX 132001  wv                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
928 PM CDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS            
WEST-CENTRAL WI AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN WI.  SOME WEAK DYNAMICAL LIFT          
MUST BE ASSISTING THESE AND THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AFTER SUNSET.            
WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING UNTIL THESE MOVE EAST OF                   
CWA...LATE EVENING. BEHIND THIS HOWEVER...AIR MASS DRIES OUT A BIT PER          
MPX 00Z SOUNDING WITH SATURATED LEVEL NEAR 8KFT BUT DRY BELOW. 00Z RUC          
ALSO SUGGESTS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF           
CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTY. WILL OPT TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY THE LATER                     
EVENING...11PM...UPDATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA AT         
LEAST.  LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT AS FORECAST WITH WINDS STAYING UP A            
BIT...DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER 40S.  CLOUDS MOVE          
IN AGAIN IN MORNING THEN WITH NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE.                             
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
DB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 132017  wi                                      

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
300 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL BRING                
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH                 
SEASONAL INLAND TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL COASTAL                  
TEMPERATURES. SLOW DRYING OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE            
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH FEWER AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND WITH                      
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AFTER TODAY.                   
COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NIGHT AND MORNING LOW              
CLOUDS.                                                                         
SHORT RANGE MDLS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A DEAMPLIFICATION              
OF THE PATTERN OVR WRN NOAM DURG THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT DIFFER IN              
THE STRENGTH OF A LINGERING WK UPR TROUGH OVR CA. ONSHR LOW LVL FLOW            
FOR SRN CA WL CONTINUE TO BE WK. ETA SHOWS THE LOW AND MID LVL FLOW             
ACQUIRING A LTL GREATER WLY COMPONENT OVR SRN CA DURG THE NEXT TWO              
DAYS WITH A SLOW DRYING OF THE MID LVL MSTR TODAY AND GREATER DRYING            
FOR WED. RUC/MAPS KEEPS MOST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVR SRN NV               
AND THE FAR ERN DESERTS OF SRN CA AS WELL AS THE MTNS OF NRN BAJA               
WHILE KPG THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA. THIS IS                      
CONSISTENT WITH THE GRADUAL DRYING TREND SHOWN BY THE ETA. WL RETAIN            
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR MTNS/DESERTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT LV OUT            
POPS XCP FOR SRNMOST AND ERNMOST MTNS AND DESERTS. WL USE MOSTLY                
SUNNY WORDING FOR WED AS ADDITIONAL DRYING OCCURS.                              
FOR CSTL SXNS...EARLY EVENING ACARS SOUNDINGS/RAOBS SHOWED A MARINE             
LYR DEPTH OF AROUND 1000 FT WITH SOME SLOW DEEPENING LIKELY THE NEXT            
TWO DAYS AS HEIGHTS ALF SLOWLY LWR. ONSHR FLOW TO REMAIN WK. BOTH               
THE RUC AND 12Z COMAPS SHOWED A WK CSTL EDDY DEVELOPING BY MORNING...           
THEN DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON. 00Z COMAPS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WK              
CSTL EDDY FOR THIS MORNING. IN THE PAST...COAMPS HAS BEEN CORRECT IN            
TRENDING CORRECTLY WITH REGARD TO EDDY DEVELOPMENT...SO NOW EXPECT              
ANY EDDY DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING TO BE VERY WK IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.            
LIKEWISE...COAMPS IS LESS THAN GUNG HO IN FORECASTING AN EDDY FOR               
TONIGHT/WED MORNING. WL JUST CONTINUE THE TREND OF A GRADUAL INCR IN            
CSTL LOW CLOUDS EACH DAY.                                                       
EXTENDED...MED RANGE MDLS ARE FORECASTING A REDEVELOPMENT OF A                  
BLOCKING PATTERN IN THE VCNTY OF WRN NOAM...THIS TIME SLIGHTLY TO THE           
E OF THE CURRENT BLOCK (I.E. OVR BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE W CST                 
STATES INSTEAD OF OVR THE ERN PAC JUST OFF THE CST). THIS WOULD                 
PLACE A WK UPR LOW OVR CA...SUFFICIENT TO KP MONSOONAL MSTR                     
DISPLACED E OF THE LCL FORECAST AREA...INLAND TEMPERATURES NR                   
NORMAL...AND CSTL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL.                             
SAN 000                                                                         
.SAN...NONE.                                                                    
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSTO 140958  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
345 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
MAIN FCST FOCUS IS EXTENT/LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY.                
NW PORTION OF THE GRR FCST AREA IS ON THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE            
UPR LVL JET AND THEREFORE IN BEST PVA AREA. WK VORTS COMING THROUGH             
THE WSW FLOW ALOFT HAVE BEEN SENDING PATCHES OF CLDS AND A FEW                  
WIDELY SCTD SHWRS THROUGH THE AREA N OF GRR OVERNIGHT.                          
FAIRLY VIGOROUS VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IR SATL IMAGERY                
OVER SW MN IS PROGGED TO TAKE AIM ON NRN LWR MI TODAY. NCEP MODELS              
IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT MOVING IT TO NEAR MBL BY 18Z THEN INTO NRN              
LK HURON EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOBE OF VORTICITY EXTENDING SW.              
LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC.                                                  
SOME VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHTWV TODAY...WITH 500            
MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C. THIS WILL CREATE A VERY UNSTABLE                       
ENVIRONMENT... ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS STILL HOLDING CLOSE TO 50F.            
FCST SNDGS FROM THE ETA AND RUC NORTH OF GRR SHOW THE TOTAL TOTALS              
INDEX REACHING THE LOW 50S BY 18Z AND THE LIFTED INDEX NEAR ZERO.               
THEREFORE THUNDER WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY IN THE NRN FCST AREA...               
AND SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER GIVEN VERY LOW FRZG            
LVL. AN OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT WORKS VERY WELL SAYS THAT THE COMBO              
OF -20C AT 500 MB AND 50F SFC DEW SUPPORTS SML HAIL.                            
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WATERSPOUT DAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL              
LATER ON THIS MORNING IN A MARINE WX STATEMENT AND THE 6 AM SPS.                
WILL KEEP THE SERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA (LAN/JXN) DRY TODAY BUT             
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF DIURNAL CLD DEVELOPMENT.                   
ALTHOUGH VSBL SATL LOOP FROM MONDAY REVEALED A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME             
CLOUD FORMATION TO OUR WEST...THERE WAS STILL SEVERAL BREAKS INBETWEEN.         
WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY AND A LOT OF               
MIXING GOING ON...SUSPECT WE WILL STILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. WL            
THEREFORE GO WITH MIXED CLD/SUN WORDING OR PTLY SUNNY.                          
LOSS OF HEATING AND SHTWV DEPARTURE SHOULD BRING A DECREASE IN CLDS             
TONIGHT AFTER ANY LINGERING EVENING CLDS/SHOWERS. WED LOOKS A LITTLE            
QUIETER AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS BLDG IN AND CYCLONIC FLOW IS LOST.                  
TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD STILL LEAD TO SOME CU FORMATION BUT WOULD EXPECT            
LESS COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT.                                              
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPS.                                      
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED FORECAST AS LATEST AVAILABLE MEDIUM              
RANGE DATA SUPPORTS DRY SCENARIO THROUGH DAY 5 WITH TEMPERATURES                
RECOVERING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BY SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A               
BEAUTIFUL LATE SUMMER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE REGION.                          
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MEADE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDTX 140658  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY                                            
240 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE FLOYD JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL COME            
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE            
COUNTRY NEXT 48 HOURS.                                                          
SHORT TERM...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND            
ARE ADVECTING ONSHORE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM            
THE OKX WSR-88D INDICATE 20-25 KT UNLIKE ANYTHING I COULD FIND IN               
THE 00Z MODELS. INTERESTINGLY...THE 03Z RUC PRECIPITATION FIELD DOES            
SUGGEST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND SEE IF THEY           
REQUIRE INCLUSION IN THE MORNING ZONES.                                         
IN ANY CASE...THIS IS ALL AN INDICATION OF A QUICK MOISTENING OF THE            
LOW LEVELS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY                      
INDICATES SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FOR              
ABOUT 100 NM. ALSO MORE STRATOCUMULUS OVER EASTERN PA. ALL IN THE               
4500-5000 FT RANGE.                                                             
THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO STILL HAS A LITTLE PUSH BEHIND IT              
WITH ALL THE WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER              
CENTRAL PA AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER EASTERN NORTH                
CAROLINA AND THIS FEATURE COMES INTO OUR FUTURE LATER TODAY.                    
THE NGM AND ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH                     
HURRICANE AND UPPER TROUGH. AVN DOING SOME INTERESTING THINGS WITH              
FLOYD AND WILL DISREGARD FOR THE FCST PACKAGE.                                  
THE 00Z ETA DEVELOPS A MAJOR VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMUM AROUND 18Z               
THAT COMES OVER OUR REGION. THIS IS VERY DIFFERENT THAN THE NGM.                
THUS...THE ETA DUMPS RAIN ON THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ETA                 
PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BY THE CONVECTIVE                 
PARAMETERIZATION.                                                               
WHILE I DON/T FULLY UNDERSTAND WHY THE ETA DEVELOPS THE EXTENSIVE               
VERTICAL VELOCITY MAXIMUM AT 700 MB...THERE IS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY              
OVER EASTERN NC WHO/S DISTURBANCE WOULD BE AFFECTING US HERE THIS               
AFTERNOON. THIS WAS MISSED BY THE 18Z ETA RUN COMPLETELY.                       
THUS...WITH THIS BEING SAID ...THE MOISTENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND            
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEANS ME IN FOR A 50 POP THIS AFTERNOON.            
WILL UP TO LIKELY FOR TONIGHT.                                                  
LONG TERM...PLAN TO DISCOUNT THE AVN. GFDL RUNS FLOYD UP INTO                   
WESTERN MARYLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT A TRACK MORE TO THE            
EAST ALONG THE COAST. IT'S INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE CANADIAN GEM              
AND THE 12Z ECMWF. THUS...WITH UNCERTAINTY HIGH ON THE RE-CURVATURE             
TRACK...WILL KEEP FCST CLOSE TO WHERE IT IS.                                    
MARINE...WILL ISSUE A HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST                      
THURSDAY. 44025 IS NOW 6 FT IN THE SWELLS AND THE NAVY'S WAM BUILDS             
US UP TO 15+ FEET AS FLOYD COMES UP THE COAST.                                  
COORDINATED WITH BOS AND PHI. THANKS!                                           
WILL HOLD ALL FCSTS UNTIL 4 AM.                                                 
.NYC/OKX...HEAVY SURF AND SCA FOR SEAS ON THE CSTL WTRS.                        
TONGUE                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KOKX 140200  ny                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
CLOSED CANADIAN LOW TO LIFT NE RESULTING IN POSITVE TILT TO                     
TROF WITH BASE STILL IN N CENTRAL US. SURFACE FRONT TO REMAIN                   
STATIONARY IN E TN THROUGH. RUC SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINING IN LEE                  
OF MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. WEAK UPPER IMPULSES REMAIN CHANNELED                 
TO NW OF AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER AREA BEGINNING               
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE TO REACH AREA WED MORNING. TRACK OF               
HURRICANE FLOYD WILL BE KEY TO MOISTURE...POPS AND WIND ON WED AND              
THU. WILL DELAY PACKAGE ISSUANCE UNTIL NEXT HURRICANE TRACK                     
FORECAST IS ISSUED. FWC WAS A BIT COOL YESTERDAY...WHILE FAN WAS                
EVEN COOLER. CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES                
THERE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE BELIEVE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE               
IN ORDER. CURRENT MOISTURE VALUES SUPPORT HIGHER MINIMUMS...                    
ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING.                                              
AVL 80/59/73 003                                                                
CLT 84/61/77 007                                                                
GSP 85/62/75 005                                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 140246 AMD  sc                                  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
857 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999                                                      
IR SAT LOOPS INDICATE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE PUSHING               
EAST INTO THE NC MTNS. 21Z RUC DATA SUPPORTS EARLIER MODEL TRENDS               
IN DIMINISHING MEAN RH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT THANKS              
TO WEAKENING FORCING & UPPER JET DYNAMICS LIFTING FURTHER NEWD AWAY             
FROM THE AREA. SO...PC MTNS...M CLR ELSEWHERE LOOKS GOOD. LOOKING               
AT 00Z OBS...MOST AREAS RUNNING ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN               
MOS & NEW LAMP DATA DOES SHADE MINS UP A TAD...BUT OVERALL MIN                  
TEMP FCSTS ON TRACK.                                                            
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 140042  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI                                           
345 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTS ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TNT   OF FIRST            
CONCERN IS THE STRONG COMPACT VORT OVER SRN MN.  AN ISOLD TSTM WAS              
OBSERVED AT 05Z EARLIER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER SD.  ETA/RUC INDICATE A          
COLD H5 CORE OF -24 C WITH THIS FEATURE...TO RCH EC WI AROUND 18Z.  WILL        
HOLD OFF MENTN OF TSTM DUE TO MAY NOT ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOVG           
EWD FAIRLY QUICK.  AFT THIS FEATURE ROTATES THROUGH...SOME BRIEF CLRG IN        
ITS WAKE MAY AGAIN PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF AFTN HEATING BEFORE THE            
MAIN UPR TROUGH SAGS SWD OVR THE RGN.  COLD AIR ALOFT WITH TROF ROTATING        
SWD MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL DUE TO LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS.  COULD BE A        
DAY OF CAFS AND SPOUTS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.                                
MOIST FLOW CONTS OVER THE RGN TNT INTO WED TO KEEP CLDS ARND.  LATE WED         
UPR TROUGH EXITS RGN BUT COLD SFC HIGH AND H8 HIGH WITH H8 TEMPS OF             
2-4 C MAY PRODUCE SOME FROST FOR NRN WI FOR WED AND THUR NIGHT.                 
.GRB...NONE.                                                                    
HELMAN                                                                          
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KMKX 140825  wi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
231 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
...GLOBALLY...                                                                  
THE FALL TRANSITION MARKS A MORE ENERGETIC JET AS THE BAROCLINIC                
ZONE STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTER DAYS. GLOBAL MOSAIC OF WATER            
VAPOR HAS A STRONG JET OF 100+ KNOTS (BASED ON DARKNESS) RUNNING                
FROM THE DATELINE BACK ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND A 90-100 KNOT            
JET RUNNING FROM THE EASTERN LAKES TO GREENLAND. THESE JETS ARE                 
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL LONGWAVE PATTERN AS IT STARTS TO                
TRANSITION FROM A 3 TO 4 WAVE PATTERN. FLOYD AND GERT ALONG WITH THE            
REST OF THE TROPICS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE ON HOW EVERYTHING              
EVOLVES AND THE OVERALL TIMING. THE TROPICS CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE               
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL NAMED STORMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.              
THE DISTURBED WEATHER EAST SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA LOOKS PROMISING TO              
POSSIBLY BECOME HARVEY. ANOTHER AREA OFF THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE               
EAST PACIFIC MAY ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY RESULT IN            
HILARY.                                                                         
FLOYD WILL BRIEFLY APPLY THE ATMOSPHERIC BRAKE ACROSS THE CONTINENT             
IN A FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WESTERLIES PICK HIM UP. AFTER THAT FLOYD                
RACES UP THE COAST SIMILAR TO THE HURRICANES OF 1938/1944...HAZEL               
AND GLORIA. FLOYD SHOULD AID IN TURNING GERT NORTHWARD AND KEEP IT              
WELL OUT TO SEA WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WILL HAPPEN.                   
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE BUILDING THE WEST            
COAST RIDGE. THIS WOULD FORCE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE                 
RIDGE TO DIVE FARTHER SOUTH AND CUT OFF OVER THE WESTERN LAKES AS               
THE 100+ KNOT JET INTERACTS WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE IN THE            
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS                
WILL HAPPEN WITH THE CUTOFF BEING ISOLATED FROM THE JET UNTIL THE               
MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE              
AND KICKS IT EASTWARD.                                                          
NET RESULT HERE WILL BE A BRIEF WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL               
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.              
WITH THE CUTOFF PROGGED TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA                         
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.           
...LOCALLY...                                                                   
WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA HAS A NICE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH               
IOWA WHICH IS REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE AS A WEAK TROF MOVING INTO               
THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE               
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH YET ANOTHER APPROACHING LAKE                 
WINNIPEG IN CANADA. BASED ON WATER VAPOR THIS CANADIAN SHORTWAVE                
LOOKS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS LITTLE             
IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN COLD                
WEATHER SC JUST ENTERING NORTHERN IOWA. THE EARLIER -SHRA/--RA HAS              
MOVED TOWARD THE METRO AREAS OF CHI AND MKE. THE 12Z RUC SHOWS THAT             
THE QG FORCING FOR THE MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP HAS MOVED EAST OF THE              
AREA WITH ONLY DOWNWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA AND THE MAIN COLD POOL           
MOVING INTO WISCONSIN. RECENT VISIBLE TRENDS DO SHOW THAT DIURNAL               
SC/CU IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND THE FORECAST AREA.                
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FIRST TROF RUNNING FROM KDLL TO KIRK               
WITH ANOTHER RUNNING FROM NEAR KMSP TO KSUX. THE DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE IS           
REFLECTED ON THE SURFACE WITH A TROF FROM NEAR KBJI TO KBIS.                    
MOISTURE ANALYSIS HAS MID 40 DEW POINTS AROUND THE TROF WITH                    
GENERALLY LOWER 40 DEW POINTS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS             
IN THE 50S HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER              
WITH 60 DEW POINTS IN THE PANHANDLE.                                            
PROBLEMS THIS PACKAGE ARE MAINLY CLOUDS/TEMPERATURES WITH ANY PRECIP            
CHANCES DUE TO TROF PASSAGE.                                                    
12Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED OK WITH THE ETA AND WHAT HAS              
ARRIVED OF THE AVN VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE NGM...ESPECIALLY WITH              
FLOYD. ETA/AVN KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT                   
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. ETA/AVN HAVE SOME QG FORCING PROGGED TO                
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF              
LOWERING CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT              
TO POP ISOLATED SHRA/--RA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR                
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...SIMILAR TO TODAY. MODELS THEN SHOW NOT              
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO POP ANY MORE PRECIP AFTER THIS                    
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH. RH FIELDS AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW SKIES TO             
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN CLOUDS ARRIVING            
LATER TONIGHT AND THEN STAYING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A                     
COMBINATION OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND A COLD POOL ALOFT STAY OVER THE                
REGION.                                                                         
TRAJECTORY METHODS YIELD LOW TO MID 40S FOR MINS TONIGHT WHICH IS IN            
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FWC/FAN NUMBERS. COOLER FAN NUMBERS FOR               
MAXES LOOK MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.                           
...EXTENDED...                                                                  
GLOBAL MODELS PROG A SLOW WARMING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE                  
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS PROG A WEAK                
SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE              
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THIS OF COURSE WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW             
FAST FLOYD MOVES.                                                               
COORDINATED WITH DSM..LSE...CHI...AND ILX.                                      
.DVN...NONE.                                                                    
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KILX 141839  il                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
922 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                      
QUICK UPDATE COMING TO REMOVE PRECIP IN NRN ZONES FOR TODAY.  WILL              
ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CAA STRATUS MOVES BACK IN             
FROM NORTH. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z RUC DOESN'T BRING STRATUS INTO              
NRN CWA UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...BUT TIME DISTANCE TOOL ON AWIPS              
DOES AROUND NOON.  TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH LATEST FLP AROUND                   
CURRENT MAX FCST.                                                               
WILL ALSO ADD 5 MPH TO WIND FCST IN NRN ZONES PER LATEST SANGSTER               
AND FLP WINDS.                                                                  
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SEARCY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 140736   ia                                     

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
SHORT TERM FCST FOCUSES ON LGT RAIN MVG INTO FA THIS AFTN WITH SFC              
TROF AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ALOFT EFFECTING REGION.                             
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1004MB LOW PRES OVR CNTRL ONTARIO WITH A CD              
FRNT EXTENDING SE INTO WRN PA. SFC TROF EXTENDS FM THE LOW DWN INTO             
SE MN AND BECOMES STRNGER IN WRN IA AND N CNTRL KS...MORE FRONTLIKE.            
FM 14Z VIS SAT AND SFC OBS...MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND -RA MV IN TO THE             
NW YOOP FM NRN MN AND SE ONTARIO AND WL EFFECT THE FA THIS AFTN. PGF            
ALONG WRN SIDE OF LOW PRES AREA VERY STRONG AS DELTA P'S ARE ROUGHLY            
10MB/100 MILES...RESULT IS BOISTEROUS SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20             
KNOTS OVR SE MANITOBA AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MN.                                  
12Z RUC DOING A BETTER JOB OF INITIALIZING PAIR OF SHRTWV'S OVR NE              
MN AND NE IA PER 12Z WATER VAPOR IMG COMPARED TO 03Z ETA WHICH IS               
TOO STRNG AND FAST WITH SRN SHRTWV AND IS WAY TOO SLOW WITH NRN                 
ONE...SO WL FOLLOW RUC FOR UPDATE DETAILS. QPFS ARE FAIRLY  SIMILAR             
PRINTING OUT A BAND OF LGT PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE U.P. FOR THIS                
AFTN. BELIEVE THIS WL PLAY OUT IN LIGHT OF CURRENT SFC TRENDS AND               
COLDER AIR POCKET OF -22 TO -24 C STRETCHING OVR U.P. FOR MOST OF               
THIS AFTN. TRACKING THE SYSTEM EAST FOR LAST FEW DAYS HAS SEEN                  
INCREAS IN PRECIP DURING DIURNAL HEATING OF DAY...SO DON'T EXPECT               
THAT TO CHANGE TDY.                                                             
ALL IN ALL ZONES LOOK ON TRACK SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WL BE                  
NEEDED.                                                                         
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 141414  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
MADE UPDATED TO INCLUDE SHOWERS FOR ENTIRE CWA.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS             
A GOOD LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM ISABELLA SOUTH BACK INTO VAN              
BUREN.   THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE EAST AND DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF              
AFTERNOON HEATING IN COMBINATION WITH COLD 850 TEMPS...SHOWERS AND A            
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP WITH AND BEHIND THIS LINE.                  
LATEST SOUNDING INFORMATION SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 5000 TO                
AROUND 7500 FEET. ALTHOUGH A BIT SCEPTICAL TO WIDE SPREAD                       
THUNDER...WITH SUCH A LOW FREEZING LEVEL PEA SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE              
UNDER SOME DEVELOPING CU.                                                       
BESIDES COLD AIR ALOFT RUC SUGGESTS A STRONG VORT ADVECTING OVER CWA            
DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING WHICH CAN ONLY HELP DEVELOPMENT.                     
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
MCINERNEY                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 141341  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999                                                     
OUR POCKET OF FAIR WEATHER IS GETTING SMALLER BUT SHOULD HOLD FOR               
ONE MORE DAY. THE 12Z UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW WEDGE OF             
VERY DRY AIR EAST OF THE MTNS. CONVECTION FIRING ON THE COASTAL                 
FRONT HAS MADE IT AS FAR W AS FAY TO FLO. UNION COUNTY IS THE ONLY              
TROUBLE SPOT FOR THE AFTN HOURS BUT I BELIEVE THAT CONVECTION WL                
STAY WELL E OF OUR COUNTIES.                                                    
SFC FRONT OVER THE MTNS IS HARD TO FIND THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUD BAND             
AND AXIS OF HIGHER SFC TO H8 DWPTS INDICATE THAT IT RUNS ROUGHLY                
FROM GEV TO AVL. CLOUDS ALONG THIS BNDRY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ERODING               
AS UPPER SUPPORT PULLS TO THE NORTH AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE              
PER THE 09Z RUC.                                                                
JUST LISTENED TO THE TPC CONFERENCE CALL (THANKS CAE). THEY HAVE                
THE CENTER OF FLOYD JUST E OF CEA BY 48HRS AND THEN TURNING NE...THE            
FIRST TIME THE TRACK HAS BEEN PROGGED TO HAVE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT.            
THIS DIMINISHES THE THREAT A LITTLE...AND WL NOW WAIT UNTIL THE AFTN            
PACKAGE TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS.                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCAE 141358  sc