EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA                                           
330 AM PDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
AS A COLD UPPER LOW STALLS NEAR LAS VEGAS TODAY...SHOWERS WILL                  
LINGER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.            
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY...A GRADUAL WARMING AND                 
DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE WEEKEND.           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE UPR LOW OVR THE ERN                 
DESERTS OF SRN CA THIS EARLY FRI MORNING. MDLS MOVE THE UPR LOW CNTR            
TO NR LAS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN NORTHEAST FOR SAT. SLOWER ETA MAY BE            
A LTL BETTER IN MAINTAINING MORE OF THE UPR TROUGH OVR THE SW THRU              
48 HOURS AS AVN/NGM HAVE A BIAS TOWARD EJECTING ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD            
TOO FAST OUT OF CLOSED LOWS IN THE SW. FOR TODAY...WRAP AROUND MSTR             
AND A WK TRAILING SHORTWAVE...SHOWN BY RUC/AVN/ETA TO BE MOVING                 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FM THE N AFT 18Z...SHOULD KP SCATTERED                 
SHOWERS GOING IN THE MTNS WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS             
DURING THE PD OF PK DIURNAL HEATING. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING               
TREND SHOULD DEVELOP SAT AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO MOVE E. HOWEVER...            
IF THE UPR LOW IS A LTL SLOWER TO MOVE E...AS SUGGESTED BY THE                  
ETA...RESIDUAL MSTR AND CYCLONIC FLOW WOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON                 
CLOUDS OVR THE MTNS FOR SAT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.                   
POPS UPPED FOR SAN AND ORANGE COUNTIES FOR THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS              
CURRENTLY INCRG IN RESPONSE TO UPR DIVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH LEFT FRONT            
EXIT REGION OF AN UPR JET STREAK...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR                       
IMAGERY...MOVG INLAND INTO SRN CSTL SXNS OF SRN CA AT 09Z.                      
SNOW LVLS...GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE SBD/RIV COUNTY            
MTNS...AND 4000 FEET OR A LTL LWR IN THE SAN COUNTY MTNS. SNOW LVLS             
SHOULD RISE DURG THE MORNING TO ABV 6000 FEET BY AFTERNOON.                     
CSTL...SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL THRU THE                   
WEEKEND FOR BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF THE               
SURGE IN S SWELL THAT BEGAN ARRIVING THU WITH HIGHEST SURF FOR                  
EXPOSED S FACING BEACHES. MAX SETS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6 TO 8              
FT WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DECR THRU THE WEEKEND.                                   
SAN 400                                                                         
.SAN...SMALL CRAFT ADV (SEE LAXCWFSGX).                                         
MARTIN                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS66 KSTO 041024  ca                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
915 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
CURRENTLY...AFTN TSTM ACTIVITY WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE S CWA                   
CONTINUES TO MOVE S. A WEAK SFC MESO-LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE S CWA               
THIS AFTN. THIS...ALONG WITH A STRONG E COAST SEABREEZE /WHICH                  
EVENTUALLY MADE IT INLAND TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER/ HELPED TO FIRE                 
CONVECTION. DRIER AIR ALOFT SUSTAINED SOME SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AS               
WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE FOCUS THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING               
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AS A STRONG SHORT             
WAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SE ACROSS N GA AND W SC. THIS DYNAMIC                    
ENERGY...IN TANDEM WITH SFC HEATING...FIRED ANOTHER ROUND OF                    
CONVECTION OVER GA AND AL SIMILAR TO WHAT BLEW THROUGH OUR CWA THU              
AFTN/EVENING.                                                                   
FORECAST...21Z RUC /AS WELL AS THE 12Z ETA/ SHOW SHORTWAVE                      
PROGRESSING SE TO NEAR KSAV BY 06Z. WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING...                 
ACTIVITY MOVING S THRU GA SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN INTENSITY...                
BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY /ALONG WITH DYNAMICS/              
TO WARRANT 30 PERCENT POPS IN MOST GA ZONES AND PERHAPS 20 PERCENT              
IN FL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY W ZONES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD                
STILL BE SEVERE... ESPECIALLY EARLY TONITE.                                     
ETA SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF E COAST TROF CONTINUING              
OVER CENTRAL FL THRU 48 HRS...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A WEAK CLOSED              
LOW. 500 MB TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE AROUND THE -10C LEVEL...BUT WITH              
FAIRLY DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NW ALOFT...THREAT OF            
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST AFTN STORMS. FOCUS            
SHOULD AGAIN BE OVER THE S PART OF THE CWA...ALTHO POSSIBILITY                  
EXISTS OF MORE CONVECTION FIRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DISTURBANCES IN            
NW FLOW N OF AREA AND MOVING SE. AS LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT...THREAT OF              
THESE DISTURBANCES LESSENS BY SUN. CURRENT FL ZONE PACKAGE GENERALLY            
ACCEPTED...BUT WILL AMEND BASED ON GA ACTIVITY. COASTAL TEMP RANGE              
LOOKS GOOD.                                                                     
MARINE...ETA SHOWS LIGHT E FLOW THRU SAT. AVN/MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW             
TROF/WEAK LO DEVELOPMENT S OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN AND TRACKS IT                  
SLOWLY N WITH NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT AN                
INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS IN THE COASTALS SUN. CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS            
FINE.                                                                           
31/CARROLL                                                                      
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 050104  fl                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL             
FLORIDA WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. LATEST VIS SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS... INDICATIVE OF              
HIGHEST MOISTURE. 10Z CAP SOUNDING SHOWS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS                  
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN ADDITION...12Z RUC INDICATES               
NVA AT H5.                                                                      
FORECAST...EXPECT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG THE COAST BY              
NOON AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MAY BE A                  
LITTLE DELAYED FROM YESTERDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS A LITTLE MORE                   
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE AS SEA BREEZE            
INTERACTS WITH LAKE BREEZES AND PARTICULARLY WITH THE WEST COAST                
BREEZE LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL...COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE               
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL GUIDE ANY STORMS              
SOUTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SO DO NOT EXPECT SUCH FLOODING RAINS AS             
WE SAW YESTERDAY.                                                               
WILL UPDATE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL COUNTIES TO ADD COASTAL/               
INLAND RANGE OF TEMPS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                           
MARINE...NO CHANGES OTHER THAN TO TWEAK WINDS TO THE W FLG-COF LEG.             
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
KELLY/CRISTALDI                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KTBW 041421  fl                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
REMAINNG CELLS IN S GA WILL CONTINUE SOUTH, (LEAVING STATE AFTER                
MIDNIGHT) AS ASSOCIATED WAVE ALOFT MOVES SOUTH. WILL LOWER POPS TO              
20 PERCENT AND GO BECOMING PARTL COUDY WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING               
DUE RAIN.                                                                       
NEXT IS THE MCC BARELING SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MESOETA AND              
RUC SEE IT. PREFER RUC SOLUTION OF MOVING IT SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS             
THE STATE. TIMING OF ALL MODELS SEEMS A LITTLE SLOW. SHOULD ENTER N             
GA 11-12Z. WHILE WILL WEAKEN SOMW DUE LOSS DIURNAL HEATING, THIS                
SYSTEM IS A HUMMER AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER. SKIES AS CLEARING                  
BEHIND TODAYS ACTIVITY, BUT FEEL PARTLY CLOUDY A BETTER CALL DUE                
APPROACHING MCC AND REMAINING MOISTURE BEHIND RW/TRW N GA THIS                  
EVENING. FRONT LIES ALONG AN AGS-MCN-CHA LINE AND SHOULD ALSO HELP              
FOCUS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. THUS WILL RAISE POPS TO 40 PERCENT,             
TOWARD MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALREADY FORMING WHERE IT RAINED. THUS                
WILL INCLUDE MENTION FOG NORTHWEST WHERE RAINED.                                
TEMPERATURES. LOOK IN LINE WITH THICKNESS AND GUIDANCE.                         
.ATL...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KFFC 050034  ga                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
230 PM EST FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
RADAR AND SATL SHOWING AN AREA OF TSTMS MOVG ESE OUT OF SE IA...ALG             
A WRM FNT. THE CHANCES OF ANY OF THIS REACHING INDIANA IS THE MAIN              
FCST PROBLEM. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRES RDG EXTDS OVR THE ERN GRTLKS.             
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING AN UPR RDG BLDG OVR INDIANA              
DURG THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE SHORTER TERM DETAILS CONCERNING THE             
TSTMS OVR SE IA ARE NOT HANDLED WELL. THE 6 HOUR ETA TO A CERTAIN               
EXTENT THE AVN SEEM TO REFLECT THE ACTUAL 18Z CONDITIONS BETTER THAN            
THE NGM. THE 15Z RUC IS ALSO MOST SIMILAR TO THE ETA. FOR THESE                 
REASONS...THE ETA IS THE PREFERRED MODEL THIS RUN.                              
HOWEVER...EVEN THE ETA AND THE 15Z RUC INDICATE THESE TSTMS SHOULD              
DISSIPATE RPDLY AS THEY APCH INDIANA. 850-300 MB THICKNESS DIRECT               
THESE TSTMS TWD W INDIANA...BUT ETA SHOWS HIGH 850 MB THETA-E AIR               
QUICKLY DISAPPEARING AS IT MOVS THRU E IL. MDT BDY LYR CONVERGENCE              
SHOWN BY THE ETA ALSO TURNS TO DIVERGENCE BEFORE REACHING W INDIANA.            
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR INDIANA THIS EVENING.            
THUS...ALL SIGNS POINT TO TSTMS RPDLY DSIPTG AS THEY MOV INTO E IL.             
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING CURRENT STRENGTH AND PROXIMITY OF TSTMS...WILL            
INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE OF TSHWRS OVR W INDIANA TONIGHT.                         
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH CI AND SOME DIURNAL CU              
OVR INDIANA UNTIL RIDGE BLDS IN STRONGER ON SUN. HAVE DISCOUNTED                
NGM/S IDEA OF BRING TSTMS INTO INDIANA SAT NIGHT...AS PREFER THE                
STRONGER RDG SHOWN BY THE ETA/AVN WHICH WOULD KEEP PCPN N OF THE                
STATE.                                                                          
AS FOR TEMPS...NGM/AVN MOS CLOSE AND APPEAR ON TRACK. ETA SFC TEMPS             
WERE RUNNING COOL AT 18Z...BUT WHEN THIS BIAS IS ACCOUNTED FOR...               
NGM/AVN MOS NUMBERS CLOSE TO ETA SFC TEMPS TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.              
.IND...NONE.                                                                    
ZIMMERMAN                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KIWX 041907  in                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
218 PM MDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
THE CONVECTIVE CHALLENGE CONTINUES WITH TEMPS A VERY CLOSE SECOND               
FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                                               
AM FOLLOWING THE ETA FOR THIS PACKAGE AS IT HAD SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE            
WITH 850 AND 700MB MOISTURE FIELDS AND WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE             
OTHERS ON MASS AND TEMPERATURES.                                                
FIRST CUT ON WHERE TO PLACE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OCCURS WITH                    
PLACEMENT OF 700 MB DEWPOINTS OF -4C AND HIGHER WITH TEMPS BELOW                
14C.  SECOND CUT WAS LOCATION OF POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                
AREAS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AT 20Z ALREADY               
SURGING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH LIMITED INHIBITION UNDER THE               
MOISTURE TONGUE.  LOW LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM IS STILL TOO WEAK                
WITH 700 MB TEMPS AROUND 12C...SO WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR STRONGER                
EAST COMPONENT OF WIND AGAINST THE DRY LINE BEFORE CONVECTION                   
INITIATES.  GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO              
DEVELOP WILL HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF GOING SEVERE.                             
18Z RUC SUGGESTS 700 MB WILL RISE ABOVE 14C BY 00Z...BUT ITS                    
DEVELOPMENT OF THAT WARM POOL OVER THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS BY 21Z                
APPEARS SPURIOUS.                                                               
END RESULT...WILL PLACE AXIS OF 40 POPS JUST EAST OF KS/COLO BORDER             
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER TO THE EAST DUE THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED                   
BOUNDARY.  30 POPS EARLY FOR COLORADO COUNTIES BASED ON PRESENCE OF             
DRY LINE.                                                                       
DRY PUNCH MOVES UP THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY               
PUSHES EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.  WE HAD A 26F                
SPREAD IN MIN TEMPS LAST NIGHT...FROM 42 IN CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY             
COLORADO TO 68 AT HILL CITY.  SIMILAR RANGE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH            
GREATEST SPREAD IN THE COLORADO COUNTIES.                                       
CHANCE FOR TSRA CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH                    
SLIGHTLY COOLER 700 MB TEMPS PROGGED BY ETA AND MID LEVEL COLD AIR              
ADVECTION JUST BEHIND EXPECTED POSITION OF DRY LINE.  FWC TEMPS LOOK            
TOO COOL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT 24-25C ACROSS THE            
CWFA.                                                                           
DRY LINE AND MOISTURE PUSH EAST OF THE CWFA PERIODS 3 AND 4...SO NO             
POPS.  GIVEN THE SPREAD OF DEWPOINTS EXPECTED IN MY EASTERN                     
GROUP...AND FOR THE SAKE OF HAVING ONLY 3 GROUPS IN THE ZONES...WILL            
USE A DOUBLE CATEGORY FOR MIN TEMPS.                                            
IN THE EXTENDED...WILL FOLLOW MRF AND HAVE PRECIP ONLY TUESDAY AS               
HEIGHTS TEND TO FALL ONLY ON THAT DAY IN THE PRESENCE OF DECENT LOW             
LEVEL MOISTURE.                                                                 
.GLD...NONE.                                                                    
ENTWISTLE                                                                       
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KTOP 042010  ks                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
920 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
A PLEASANT COOL JUNE NGT ON TAP ACRS THE CWA AND VCNTY AS TD'S IN THE           
MID 40S TO THE LOWER 50S HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THE CDFNT HAS           
MOVED WELL S OF VA ATTM. HIGH PRES CNTRD TO THE N ATTM WILL BE IN               
CONTROL THRU THE WEEKEND AS IT BLDS AND MOVES TO THE E. THIS WILL KEEP          
THE CWA IN A CONTINUING DRY AIR MASS. THE LOW LVL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NE         
TO NEAR CALM OVRNGT THEN BCM E AND SE SAT THRU SUN. OVRNGT TEMPS WILL           
SETTLE DOWN INTO THE 50S ACRS THE BOARD FROM NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...LOW           
TD'S AND NEAR CALM WNDS.                                                        
THE MCS OVR IL ATTM APPEARS OMINOUS BUT 18Z ETA/RUC FCST THE FEATURE TO         
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVRNGT AND SAT ON A SE TRACK WITH LTL IF ANY              
EFFECT DUE HERE XCPT FOR SOME HI CLDS PERHAPS PER RH FCSTS. A PLEASANT          
SAT IN STORE FOR THE REGION.  OTW ERLR FCST APPEARS ON TARGET OVERALL.          
THAT'S IT FOR NOW...NEXT TIME.                                                  
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
PAP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 041840  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
HIGH PRES MOVING E FROM CANADA TO NYC IS PUSHING DOWN DRIER AND COOLER          
AIR OVER THE CWA.  THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL LOW LVL MOISTURE ATTM...BUT           
THAT IS FORECAST BY THE RUC TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY.  THERE           
IS ONE PESKY PATCH OF CLDY SKIES OVER THE PNDLETN COUNTY REGION THAT            
WILL BE ADRSSED WITH A PS FOR THIS AFTRN...OTW MS WILL DO.  TEMPS               
SHOULD REACH 75 TO 80.  WINDS ARE STRONGER OVER THE E THAN THE W...BUT          
WILL BE DIMISHING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.                                         
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
STRONG                                                                          
 md                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
CONCERN TONIGHT IS CONVECTION.                                                  
500MB PATTERN HAS A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA UP TOWARD MINNESOTA. THE 500MB FLOW ACROSS             
SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMPARATIVELY ZONAL... BUT THERE IS A TROF ALOFT             
JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND A SECOND 500MB TROF OVER                         
SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE... THERE IS A LOW JUST EAST OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST                       
MINNESOTA... ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... AND DOWN TO ANOTHER LOW IN                   
COLORADO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS.                 
RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS STRONG OUT OF THE              
SOUTH. 00Z METARS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 70F DEWPOINTS FROM EASTERN               
KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AIRMASS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW              
GOOD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT THAT DROPS                
SOUTHWEST FROM THE WINNIPEG LOW...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE THEIR                      
DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS. 12Z ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON              
POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT BASED ON LOCATION OF EVENING CONVECTION...            
AND IS PREFERRED MODEL. ETA SHOWS SHOWALTER INDICES FROM -4 TO -10C             
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE FRONT. 850MB THETA E RIDGE IS IN THIS             
AREA AS WELL. 850MB WINDS ARE STRONGEST FROM NEBRASKA SOUTH... BUT              
THEY ARE WEAKER TO THE NORTH. THIS LEADS TO SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE              
DOWN IN NEBRASKA AREA. ETA 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE PATTERN SHOWS SOME             
DIVERGENCE OVER WISCONSIN AT 00Z... BUT THERE'S NOT MUCH CONVECTION             
THERE. OTHER MODELS SHOW BLAND 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE PATTERN OVER               
THE U.P. AT 00Z.                                                                
FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST                 
CONUS WON'T BUDGE AND WILL THUS PREVENT PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC                 
FEATURE OVER CONUS. THE WINNIPEG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD         
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT... BUT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED BACK IN            
COLORADO AND WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
12Z. ETA DEVELOPS SOME PRONOUNCED 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE OVER THE                
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY 06Z... NGM AND RUC HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS BUT              
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THIS PERHAPS DUE TO MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER                 
PLAINS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF STRONG AND MOIST 850MB INFLOW. BY 12Z                
250MB DIVERGENCE IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO BE SOUTH AND                
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB THETA E VALUES DO INCREASE OVER                
U.P. TONIGHT... BUT BEST VALUES REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IN AREAS             
OF 850MB WIND CONVERGENCE.                                                      
WITH FRONTALLY TRIGGERED CONVECTION REMAINING IN MINNESOTA AND MCS              
ACTION PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P... DO NOT EXPECT             
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...                  
MAINLY IN THE WEST AND ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ES                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 050202  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
955 PM EDT FRI JUN 04 1999                                                      
LATEST IR STLT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL          
CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... IN RESPONSE TO          
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO THE SOUTH AND VORT LOBE MOVING INTO EASTERN             
WISCONSIN. KAPX AND KGRB 88D'S SHOWING AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING             
OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SPOTTER             
REPORTS FROM MANISTEE AND OVER BENZIE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES... SHOW THAT          
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE BANDS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE         
FORECAST AREA... GENERALLY OF LIGHT INTENSITY OR SPRINKLES.                     
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWING 850/500 QVECTOR FORCING CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL        
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST APX          
AND GRB RADAR TRENDS... WILL KEEP MENTION OF A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR             
SPRINKLES IN FOR AREAS SOUTH OF M-32 TONIGHT.                                   
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 042348  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1120 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
MUCH TO MY DISMAY...THE SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ARE HOLDING UP QUITE             
WELL INTO NORTHERN WI AND W LAKE SUPERIOR. ON THE 12Z RUC...THE                 
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN                     
ANTICIPATED. THE RUC HAS IT PASSING THROUGH THE U.P. AROUND 21Z. SO             
I ADDED 'SHOWERS' WORDING TO THE WESTERN ZONES AND TIMED IT 'LATE'              
AROUND MQT. I DON'T BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER            
AS THE AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE U.P. IS QUITE STABLE. BUT I HAD TO              
ADD TSTMS INTO THE FAR WEST AS THERE ARE A FEW STRIKES SW OF IWD.               
CHANGED ALL ZONES TO MOSTLY CLDY OR BECOMIN CLDY AND SHADED TEMPS               
DOWN IN RESPONSE TO ALL OF THE CLOUDS.                                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ALTOE                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 041508  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1013 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
WILL ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS                
MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW CONVECTION TO OUR             
WEST... WITH ONE MCS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA... AND A SECOND OVER                   
NORTHWEST IOWA. THE MCS OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS DIVING SOUTHEAST                 
ALONG THE 850-300MB THICKNESS CONTOURS... WHILE THE COMPLEX OVER                
NORTHEAST IOWA IS SHOWING MORE OF AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE              
THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF THE 850MB WARM FRONT ALONG WHICH IT IS                
DEVELOPING. WOULD EXPECT THIS SECOND MCS TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL             
JET WEAKENS... AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE STABLE AND DRIER                   
ATMOSPHERE TO ITS EAST. SO... DEBRIS SHOULD BE THE ONLY EFFECT WE               
SEE FROM THESE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
UPPER LEVEL RH FIELDS FROM THE 12Z RUC GIVE A NICE REPRESENTATION OF            
THE CURRENT CIRRUS FIELD... AND IT SUGGESTS THAT BKN CIRRUS WILL                
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... AND INTO THE                
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RUC TAKES THE THICKEST             
CIRRUS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE... NOT MUCH IN              
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 12Z                    
SOUNDINGS AND THE CU SCHEME FROM THE 12Z RUC IMPLY NOTHING IN THE               
WAY OF CU THIS AFTERNOON... WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING DRY AIR IN              
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION... SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR             
ALOFT... SO MIXING SHOULD PUSH DEWPOINTS DOWN A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...            
FEEL A FEW CU COULD FORM IN THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS PRESENT               
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID... MAY CHANGE                  
WESTERN ZONES TO BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY... AND MAY CHANGE EASTERN                
ZONES TO BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                
FORECAST TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE TRACKING WELL... AND MATCH             
UP WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS... LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE... AND THIS                  
AFTERNOON/S 850MB TEMPERATURE PROGS FROM THE RUC.                               
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1030 AM.                                            
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
TRH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 040904  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
415 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
06Z SFC CHART SHOWS HI PRES CENTERED OVR LWR MI WITH DRY STABLE                 
AIRMASS COVERNING CWA ATTM PER 00Z GRB SDNG. IR PIX SHOW HI CLDS                
DRIFTING EWD ACRS CWA IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AHD OF VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVG            
NEWD INTO SRN CAN PER WV LOOP. NMRS SHRA/TSRA HAVE DVLPD ACRS ERN               
ND/NW MN IN EXIT RGN OF H5 JET MAX IN DAKOTAS AT 00Z SUPPORTING UPR             
SHRTWV AND IN MSTR AXIS AHD OF H85-7 DRY LINE. ANOTHER MCS DVLPG                
ACRS NE NEBRASKA/WRN IA AHD OF SFC WARM FRONTOGEN THERE. 00Z RAOBS              
INDICATE H85 DWPT/PW AS HI AS 15C/1.5" IN MSTR AXIS FEEDING THE                 
PLAINS CNVCTN. ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF TSRA HAS POPPED UP NR MPX ALG            
SHARP H10-7 DWPT GRADIENT WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS SGNFT MSTR CNVGC.              
ANOTHER DEEP SHRTWV LOCATED OVR SRN CA. WV LOOP SHOWS THIS VIGOROUS             
SYS MOVG SLOWLY EWD.                                                            
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THIS PACKAGE ARE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TNGT/SAT.            
HAVE GONE WITH NGM FOR MOST FCST DETAILS. ALTHOUGH ITS OVERALL SOLN             
NOT VERY DIFFERENT FM NGM...ETA APPEARS TO EXHIBIT CONVECTIVE                   
FEEDBACK AT F18-36 PD WITH DVLPMNT OF VORT MAX OVR MN IN AREA WHERE             
MODELS SUG MCS DVLPMNT.                                                         
FOR TDAY...NGM SUGS STABLE AIRMASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LO LVL               
TRAJECTORIES REMAINING OUT OF THE RELATIVELY DRY SE. BUT 06Z RUC                
SHOWS H10-7 MSTR GRADIENT/CNVGC AND ASSOCIATED WITH MPX TSRA AND                
SOME H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVG INTO WRN ZNS THIS MRNG. SO THREW IN               
SCT -SHRA IN FAR W THIS MRNG XPCTG REMNANT CNVCTN THAT                          
CLIMATOLOGICALLY WEAKENS AFTR SUNRISE TO AFFECT THESE ZNS. UPSTREAM             
MAX TEMPS ON THU SUG MOS FCST TEMPS RSNBL. READINGS WL BE LOWEST NR             
LK MI WITH SELY FLOW OFF COOL WATER.                                            
NGM SUGS PCPN CHCS WL BE INCRSG OVR CWA TNGT. NGM AND ETA SUG AS RRQ            
OF DAKOTAS JET MAX INTERSECTS MSTR AXIS OVR MN LATE THIS AFTN...                
SGNFT CNVCTN WL DVLP THERE WITH INCRSG DIFFERENTIAL DVGC. THIS IS               
THE POINT WHERE ETA BEGINS TO EXHIBIT CNVCTIVE FEEDBACK. ALTHOUGH               
NGM SHIFTS UPR JET MAX EWD...BEST DIFFERENTIAL DVGC BEGINS TO SHIFT             
SEWD AS DVLPG MCS MOVES SEWD INTO WI ALG WARM FNT SHIFTING NWD FM               
NEBRASKA AND H85-3 THKNS LINES. DVLPMNT OF MCS IN THIS DIRECTION WL             
LIKELY CUTOFF BEST MSTR INFLOW TO CWA DESPITE CONTD ISENTROPIC                  
LIFT/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC PROGGED BY NGM TO MOVE W-E TNGT. WL GO                 
LIKELY POPS OVR WCNTRL ZNS BUT JUST CHCY LATE FOR ERN CWA FARTHER               
INTO STABLE AIR PER NGM FCST TT/LI. WL LIMIT MENTION OF TSRA TO                 
UNSTABLE SIDE OF AXIS WHERE NGM SHOWS TT/LI 50/-2.                              
ALTHOUGH NGM SHOWS MORE LO LVL ACYC FLOW ON SAT FOLLOWING PASSAGE               
OF FIRST JET MAX AND UNDER BLDG UPR RDG IN ADVANCE OF CUTOFF LO                 
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF SW...MODEL INDICATES DIFFERENTIAL DVGC/                     
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MSTR CNVGC TO LINGER AS JET MAX INTENSIFIES AT TOP              
OF RDG. SO WL KEEP MENTION OF CHCY POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA DESPITE                   
SEEMING LACK OF BNDRY AS CONTD SWLY FLOW ADVECTS HIER HUMIDITY INTO             
CWA.                                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
KC                                                                              
 mi                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
858 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
PATCHY CS DRFTG ACRS ERN HALF OF NC SO WILL RETAIN MCLR TO PCLDY                
WRDG. MHX 00Z SNDG SHWG A MOIST SFC-850 LYR COINCIDING WITH DEPTH OF            
NE FLOW. RUC SFC DEWPOINTS PROJECTED TO REMAIN NR 60F OVRNGHT SO                
MENTION OF INLAND FOG STILL GOOD AS WINDS DECOUPLE ACRS WRN ZONES.              
BREEZES ALG COAST LIKELY TO KEEP FOG WELL ENOUGH DISPERSED TO PREVENT           
VSBY PROBLEMS. GOING FCST TEMPS ARE FINE.                                       
IN THE WATERS...PRES GRAD SURGE LTL FURTHER S THAN RUC PROGS...BUT              
NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE GOING FCST WINDS. ALTHOUGH PRETTY LIGHT FROM               
DUCK TO ALBEMARLE SOUND ATTM...SECONDARY SURGE NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION. NO CHANGES TO MARINE PACKAGE.                                         
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
MJC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 050047  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
SUN & ITS MIXING FINALLY DOING ITS THING ON THE SCU DECK OVERHEAD.              
15Z RUC2 T-SECS SHOWED GRADUAL DRYING OF THE LO-LVLS THRU THIS EVE              
WHILE ETA KEEPS THE RH UP. WILL START W/ SOME KIND OF TREND WORDING             
FOR ILM ZONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FARTHER S... COMBO OF SEA BREEZE &            
BETTER INSTABILITY/SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE PRODUCING             
SOMETHING NEAR CHS ACCORDING TO KLTX 88D. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR              
MYR/GGE ZONES. BEYOND THAT THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DROPPING            
S/WVS S OF FA IN NWLY FLOW ARND S-CNTL US RIDGE. HI PRES CENTERED               
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD DOWN THE E CST THRU THE PD. H5 RIDGE            
TO BUILD N/E ACRS THE AREA BY SUN. BODES WELL W/ JUST AFTN CU IN                
MOIST LO-LVLS. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENTLY AT THE CST W/ FLOW            
OFF THE 72-73 DEG WATER BUT INLAND TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY UNDER                 
PLENTY OF SUN. FAN/FWC SEEM OKAY & WILL FOLLOW.                                 
HI PRES KEEPS ITS HOLD ON THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK                
WEEK BUT A S/WV & ASSOC SFC FNT START TO BACK DOOR IN WED. WILL STAY            
N OF AREA SO DRY CONTINUES.                                                     
CWF: NO PROBLEMS THIS GO ROUND AS WEAK GRAD KEEPS WINDS 15                      
KT OR LESS. AS THE HI MOVES OFF THE CST OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO            
THE E & REMAIN E/SE THRU SUN.                                                   
PRELIM CCF                                                                      
ILM 066/082 063/083 065 000                                                     
FLO 064/090 063/089 064 000                                                     
MYR 067/082 065/082 065 100                                                     
.ILM...NONE.                                                                    
LGE                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 041737  nc                                      

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
845 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 1999                                                      
FCST CONCERNS SVR WX THREAT. SVR WX CONTINUING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY          
BOUNDARY FROM EXT SE ND THROUGH NW MN. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS          
VIA KMVX-88D AND VIS IMAGERY HAS PLAYED A BIG PART IN SVR THIS EVENING.         
FROM RUC MOIST CONVERGENCE CONTINUES AS BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE LITTLE         
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH H8 THETA-E RIDGE SO CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WITH            
SVR. TRAINING CELLS ALONG BOUNDARY MAY PROMPT NEED FOR SOME SORT FLOOD          
ADVISORY/WARNING OVR NW MN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.                
POSSIBLE RELIEF LATER TONIGHT AS SHORWAVE LIFTING NORTH INCREASES               
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...HOPEFULLY... NEW WATCH EXPECTED             
SHORTLY AND WILL ISSUE UPDATE ACCORDINGLY.                                      
.FGF...NONE.                                                                    
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KBIS 042041  nd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
844 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
KGSP 88D REFLECTIVITY LOOPS SHOW TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX HAVE            
NOW MOVED SOUTH OF THE CWFA.  21Z RUC TAKES THIS FEATURE INTO SE GA             
BY 12Z SATURDAY & COVECTIVE DEBRIS IN IT'S WAKE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE           
THIS EVENING.  UPSTREAM...MCC OVER ILLINOIS DIVING QUICKLY SE. RUC &            
18Z ETA DATA INDICATE A WEAKENING VORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVING              
AS FAR AS ERN TENN BY 12Z.  18Z ETA ALSO SHOWS 700 MB OMEGA MOVING              
INTO NC MOUNTAINS AROUND 09Z SAT.  BUT EXPECT BEST INSTABILITY TO               
REMAIN WEST/SW OF CWFA...CLOSER TO QSTRNY SFC BNDRY...SO PLAN TO                
KEEP FCST ACRS NC MTNS DRY TONIGHT...BUT CHG SKY TO PC.                         
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
CSH                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 042337 COR  sc                                  

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
LATEST MODELS IN GENL AGREEMENT. IN PARTICULAR...12Z RUC AND ETA SHOWING        
GD 500 MB S/W OVR TN VLY SLIPPING SEWRD TO NR SAV RVR LATER THIS                
EVENING. VSBL SAT PIX...LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS...AND RADAR IMAGES ATTM            
INDICATING SVR STRMS OVR NWRN GA MOVG SE. WK CDFNT JUST S OF CAE VCNTY          
MOVG SLOLY S. COMBINATION OF S/W AND WK FNT MAY HELP PROVIDE FOCUS FOR          
WDLY SCT TSTMS THIS EVENING FOR CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF CWA. DRIER AIR WL        
PUSH INTO AREA LATER TONITE. SFC HI PRES OVR ERN GRTLKS WL MOV E OVR THE        
WKEND. LOW-LVL FLOW WL BECOME MORE ELY ON SAT SO MAY SEE MORE CU BUT            
ATTM DO NO XPCT ANY PRECIP. OTHERWISE...WX PATTERN LUKS DRY AS UPR RGE          
BLDS.                                                                           
USED BLEND OF FWC/FAN GUIDANCE AND LCL SCHEMES FOR TEMPS.                       
PRELIM CCFS:                                                                    
CAE BU 66/91/64/90/64 22200                                                     
AGS BU 65/91/63/90/63 22200                                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
BC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 041840  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
156 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
INITIAL SURGE OF DRIER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURES COMING DOWN THE LEE             
HAS MADE IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN I ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...                   
MEANING THAT POPS ARE SKEWED ABOUT I TIER OF COUNTIES FURTHER N                 
THEY SHOULD BE ATTM. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGN THAT THE FRONT WL               
MAKE ANY MORE SLY PROGRESS UNTIL A SECOND SURGE COMES THROUGH SAT               
MORNING. CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS BUILDING IN AXIS OF                
MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND 40KT H5 JET OVER CENTRAL GA. WL HAVE TO WATCH             
TRENDS BEFORE SENDING ZONES...BUT FOR NOW PLAN EVENING POPS ONLY S OF           
THE SAVANNAH RIVER. 15Z RUC HAS A SECOND VORT IN THE NW FLOW MUCH               
WEAKER THAN 12Z ETA INITILIZED. THIS MAKES SENSE PER LATEST VAPOR AND           
WL REMOVE OVERNIGHT POPS FROM MTNS.                                             
SFC CONVERGENCE WL BE FAR ENOUGH S AND W ON FRI TO LEAVE ALL ZONES              
DRY...THOUGH I/M STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR THE MTNS. BASED ON THE            
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW (H5 RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION) WL              
CARRY ONLY ISOLATED TSRA MTNS AND NOTHING ANYWHERE ELSE.                        
HGHTS RISE TO OUR N SAT NGHT AND SUN...RESULTING IN A DEEP E TO SE              
FLOW OVER CWFA. WHILE THE LLVLS MOISTEN UP W/THIS FLOW...IT REMAINS             
DRY ALOFT. SFC PRESSURE RISE OVER THE REGION AS WELL..WITH ANY                  
CONVERGENCE WELL S AND W OF AREA. THUS WL CARRY NO POPS BUT WL GO               
PARTLY CLOUDY.                                                                  
WL CONTINUE DRY FOR THE EXTENDED...THOUGH TROPICS ARE GETTING A                 
LITTLE INTERESTING.                                                             
CAEWRKGSP OUT BY 215 PM EDT.                                                    
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:                                                            
AVL 58/81/59/82 1221                                                            
CLT 62/85/63/86 -11-                                                            
GSP 63/85/63/86 112-                                                            
.GSP...NONE                                                                     
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 041420  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1019 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
ANOTHER INTERESTING AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.             
12Z RUC HAS A RATHER POTENT H5 VORT CROSS INTO THE CWA DURING THE               
AFTN HOURS. A 40 KT H5 JET IS PROGGED ON THE W SIDE OF THE VORT. IN             
ADDITION...CONVERGENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND HAS FINALLY SENT WEAK COLD              
FRONT INTO THE SC UPSTATE. DWPTS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER N OF THE                 
BNDRY...AND GSO/S SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS VERY DRY ABOVE THE                  
BNDRY LAYER (-20 DEG K INDEX). SO THE QUESTION ARISES AS TO WHERE               
THE SFC BNDRY WL BE LOCATED BY AFTN. USING ARL TRAJECTORYS...SFC                
AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPSTATE BY AFTN WL HAVE ORIGINATED N OF             
THE FRONT BASED ON LAST NGHTS NGM (ETA NOT AVAILABLE).                          
SO IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WL EXTEND FROM THE SRN             
SMOKIES DOWN TO AGS BY MID AFTN. WL UP POPS TO 40S IN THE NE GA                 
COUNTIES AND THE UPSTATE COUNTIES ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER. OTRW...             
THE MID SHIFT HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.                                 
.GSP...NONE                                                                     
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KCHS 041355  sc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
940 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
WV AND RUC SHOW WELL DEFINED VORT MAX NEAR CNTRL KY/TN BDR MOVING SE            
TOWARD SC. 00Z AVN AND ETA FCST AFTN LI/S IN THE -6 TO -8 RANGE. 09Z RUC        
IS A BIT MORE STABLE AND ON THE DOWN SIDE...DWPTS ARE A FEW DEGS LOWER          
TDY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. ALL IN ALL...WIDELY SCT TO SCT POPS LOOK          
OK FOR THIS AFTN. WITH 850 TMPS AND 1000-850 THK A BIT LOWER TDY...WE           
SHOULD NOT GET QUITE AS WARM AS YESTERDAY SO GOING TEMPS LOOK OK. SO NO         
SIG CHGS TO EARLY MRNG PKG.                                                     
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
CAMMARATA                                                                       
 sc                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
THIS MIGHT BE AS CLOSE TO THIS FCSTR COMES TO USING A MODEL AS IS...            
BUT RUC SEEMS TO BE NAILING DEVELOPING EVENT ON THE HEAD.  VERY STG             
IMPULSE SEEN ON 6.7UM WV LOOP LIFTING INTO WRN NEBRASKA...AND                   
ENTICING TREMENDOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACRS WRN NEBRASKA AND              
INTO SRN SD.  RAOBS ACRS REGION ARE BASICALLY A LOADED GUN...WITH CAP           
ALLOWING SFC DWPTS WELL INTO LWR 70S...STLT SOUNDER SHOWING -11 TO              
-14C LI OVER MUCH OF CWA...AND FITS IN WELL WITH RAOBS.  CAPES RANGE            
FM 2500-4000 J/KG...AND BRN SHEAR IS SCREAMING SUPERCELLULAR.  SCARY            
ASPECT IS INDUCTION OF STG LLJ BY WRN PLAINS WAVE...ALREADY CRANKING            
UP TO 40 KTS ON FBY AND MRR PROF...BUT LOW LVL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO                
HAVE WORKED UP TO NR KFSD AT MID EVNG.  CANNOT DISPUTE OBS...SO                 
BASICALLY...WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION AND SEVERITY IS PROBLEM FOR              
NIGHT.  EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO REMAIN TIED TO THE LLJ FOR               
THE MOST PART...FIRST RIDING THE CAP EDGE/BOUNDARY NNEWARD THIS                 
EVENING...THEN MAKING THE BIG EWRD TURN AND EVENTUALLY SE BY MRNG.              
ATTM...I AM FAVORING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF LST NIGHT WITH THE                
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP NOSING IN...WHICH WOULD IMPACT WRN AND NRN                
CWA...9V9...HON...BKX...MML...MWM MOST.  THIS WAS GENERAL IDEA OF               
PREV FCST...SO ANY CHGS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.                          
THE WHOLE GAMUT OF SVR WX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL                 
HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TRACK OF HEAVY RAINS...IF                    
ATTEMPT TO TRACK CLOSER TO MO RVR LATER...WITH GREATER FLOODING                 
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.                                                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 042117  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND                           
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT/TROF DRAPED FROM NERN SD TO SWRN SD.               
VISB SAT PIX SHOW CU FIELD ALONG FRONT. CAN ALSO PICK OUT FROM SAT              
PIX THE SFC LOW SPINNING IN NCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD WHICH IS NOT                   
HANDLED VERY WELL BY MDLS. SAT PIX ALSO SHOW SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG              
FRNT WHICH IS WHAT SPC IS WORRIED ABT. 18Z KABR SNDG SHOWING CAPES              
ABV 3300 J/KG WITH LI TO -10. CAP IS 2.0 DEGREES BETWEEN 85H AND 7H.            
SFC TEMP OF 87 WILL BREAK THIS CAP...AND WE ARE CURRENTLY 85 WITH               
SUNSHINE. FEEL WITH STRONG LOLVL JET CONT TO PUMP MOIST INTO                    
AREA...FEEL THAT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE LIFE GETS BUSY.             
MOIST CONTS TO POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRNT...WTH 70 DWPTS BEGINNING            
TO SHOW UP IN CNTRL SD. 15Z RUC SHOWS THAT DWPTS SHOULD CLIMB A FEW             
MORE DEGREES YET TAFTN WITH SFC TEMPS APPROACHING 87. WILL TRY TO               
ALIGN ZONES ALONG FRONT/TROF WITH MENTION OF SVR EAST AND SOUTH OF              
IT. FAR NWRN COUNTIES MAY SEE SUM TRW...BUT FEEL THAT BEST ACTION               
WILL BE EAST OF THEM. WITH PWATS OVR 1.00...WILL ALSO MENTION HVY               
RAIN PSBL TNT FOR NERN COUNTIES. FRONT WILL STALL OUT OR RETREAT A              
LITTLE TNT. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CHC OF SVR ON SAT.               
MDLS SEEM SIMILIAR THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE 24-48                
HOURS. NGM IS FAST IN PUSHING SYSTEM THROUGH... SO WENT WITH ETA/AVN            
SOLN OF SLOWER MOVT. THUS...ALSO LEANED TOWARD FAN TEMPS AS MORE WAA            
MOVES INTO REGION WITH SLOWER NATURE OF FRONT. ON SAT                           
EVNG/NGT...FEEL THAT TRW MAY BECOME SEVERE AGAIN AS NOT MUCH WILL               
HAVE CHANGED FROM TNT TO SAT NGT...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT AND               
LET MID CREW DEAL WITH. BY SUN...FRNT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH OUT            
OF CWA...BUT NOT BEFORE STALLING AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST. AGAIN...THIS            
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF TRW ACTIVITY ON SUN.                                       
.EXTENDED DISCN...                                                              
500MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH                
RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND             
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF            
THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FMR GUIDANCE FOR            
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD.                                                        
.ABR...TOR WATCH #378 & #379 FOR CNTRL AND NERN SD UNTIL 02Z                    
HINTZ/ECKBERG                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 042009  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN                                          
943 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER              
TROF/VORTICITY MAX.  SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS TN AND INTO SC.             
TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MODIFIED BNA SOUNDING GIVING CAPES              
OVER 2000.  09Z RUC INDICATING BEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF TYS.  WITH             
THE UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH...RECOMMEND KEEPING ONGOING POPS FOR              
TYS AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK                
GOOD. NEED TO TAKE OUT MORNING FOG.                                             
CRW...FORECAST LOOKS OK.                                                        
RDU...NEED TO TAKE OUT MORNING FOG...REST IS FINE.                              
GH                                                                              
 tn                                                                             
                                                                                
                                                                                
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX                                            
323 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
THE DRYLINE WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE                   
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 65 TO 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IN THE EASTERN TEXAS              
PANHANDLE. DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURING ACROSS THE                  
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST OF THE PALO DURO CANYON POSSIBLY               
DUE TO THE CANYON CIRCULATION (SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION). THIS                   
WAS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH CAPES IN THE 4000 TO 5000 RANGE.                  
HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP (ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY)                   
EXISTED THAT MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE BROKEN TODAY. IF A STORM WERE              
TO DEVELOP...IT SHOULD NO DOUBT BE ISOLATED. THE 3 HOUR RUC HINTED              
AT VERY WEAK BACK END POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES        
THIS EVENING WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LAPS OBSERVATION            
SHOWS A WEAK VORT MINIMUM WORKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS               
VERY WEAK ENERGY ALOFT WAS NOT PRESENT YESTERDAY AND COULD AID                  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IF IT WHERE TO GET GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.            
THE 3 HOUR RUC DOES ACTIVATE THE DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING TO A MUCH             
LESSER EXTENT THAN YESTERDAY (WHICH BUSTED MISERABLY DUE TO THE                 
CAP). AS A RESULT... BELIEVE THE CAP WILL PROBABLY HOLD. WILL GO                
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN COUNTIES NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE                
THIS EVENING. FOR FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT OUT OF               
THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE              
REGION FRIDAY. THE WARM AIR ALOFT PUSHES A BIT EAST IN SOUTHWEST                
FLOW AS THE DYNAMIC ENERGY APPROACHES.  THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO            
DEVELOP                                                                         
IN WEST TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DYNAMIC              
SYSTEM. STORMS WOULD START OUT WIDELY SCATTERED AND THEN BECOME                 
MORE NUMEROUS AND LINE OUT IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH THE MOST               
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOCUSED NORTH. AS A RESULT...WILL PUT THE                
GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE             
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH              
SHIFTS WELL NORTHEAST BUT THE DRYLINE MAY STILL BE PRESENT ACROSS               
MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...WILL PUT A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST.                                            
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION BUT              
MORE ENERGY COMES ACROSS TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST.              
WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS NORTH AND CHANCE SOUTH                   
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL                  
DISTURBANCES PUSHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                 
AMA 61/85 60/85 60 135                                                          
.AMA...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
CB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KBRO 041957  tx                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
...CONTINUING TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...                     
INTENSE INSTABILITY AND FUEL PRESENT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST            
AREA.  EARLIER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR                
KFOD-WEST OF KSTL AT 01Z AND HAVE BEEN MONITORING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE            
CONVERGENCE ALONG IT BUT CAP IS JUST TOO INTENSE.  LAPS SOUNDINGS YIELD         
ABOUT -350 J/KG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AT 01Z SO IT WILL HOLD OFF                
CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH KDMX REGION ARE ABOVE            
THE CAP AND SHOULD NOT BECOME SURFACE BASED.                                    
OVERNIGHT FORECAST TURNS TO MORNING CONVECTION DYING THROUGH FORECAST           
AREA.  INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET TONIGHT AND DEWPOINTS AT 850 MB OF 17C             
MEANS FAVORS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH               
DAKOTA.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED EASTWARD WITH TIME ON NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL         
JET INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND BY MORNING INTO WESTERN FORECAST AREA.         
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY HAIL REPORTS IF SEVERE.        
IN FAVOR OF BACKING OFF TO 30 POPS OVER WI WITH TIMING VERY LATE IF             
CONVECTION MAKES IT.                                                            
OTHERWISE MINOR ADJUSTS TO ZONE FORECAST.  RUC HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE          
ON SURFACE DEWPOINT POOL ON 00Z RUN AND IT KEEPS IOWA BOUNDARY TO OUR           
WEST. HOWEVER...PRECIPTABLE WATER DOES INCREASE TO 1.5 INCHES OVER              
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA AND WEST SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE OVER          
SATURATED SOIL AREAS.                                                           
.LSE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALL              
       OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND MOWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.               
       MNZ094-IAZ008>011-18-19-29-30                                            
DB                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS73 KMKX 050227 AMD  wi                                  

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
230 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
TODAY...RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA WILL GIVE WAY TO               
BUILDING RIDGE NOSING SW FROM APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. WEAK                    
GRADIENT THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO FORM BY MID             
DAY AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RETURNING SYNOPTIC              
SCALE E FLOW WILL REINFORCE SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL            
MOISTURE LEVELS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING             
SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE                 
BOUNDARY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING              
INLAND AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WITH            
INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE AND NE STEERING WINDS...BRUNT OF            
CONVECTION SHOULD ADVECT WEST OF CWA EARLIER THAN RECENT DAYS.                  
COMPLICATING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY WILL BE OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY PROPAGATING SOUTH FROM LATE NIGHT STORMS OVER THE EASTERN              
PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH 03Z RUC DOES NOT DEPICT BOUNDARY AFTER                      
DAYBREAK...BELIEVE FEATURE WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING AND REACH              
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CWA. WILL MONITOR BOUNDARY FOR POSSIBILITY OF                  
EARLIER ONSET OF SHOWERS/STORMS. MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY BELOW FRIDAYS.            
TONIGHT...AS H7 RIDGE AXIS OVER SE STATES SHIFTS EWD...E FLOW WILL              
DEEPEN OVER ECFL AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH HIGHEST MOISTURE             
LEVELS ARE INDICATED SE OF AREA...SOME CONVERGENCE LINE SHOWERS OVER            
THE MARINE AREAS SHOULD ADVECT ASHORE. WILL KEEP MINIMAL POPS ONLY              
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.                                                       
SUN/MON...CONSENSUS IN MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING S ALONG               
THE MID ATLC COAST. UNTIL BETTER PHYSICAL EVIDENCE IS PRESENTED FOR             
SHORT TERM EVOLUTION OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS...WILL LEAN               
TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE ETA DEPICTION OF THE LOWERING HEIGHTS IN                
THAT AREA. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL ADVECT N FROM THE TROPICS               
AND SCATTTERD POPS LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET MOST AREAS WITH NIGHTTIME              
MARINE SHOWERS MAKING SOME PROGRESS INLAND.                                     
EVEN WITH OUT ANY LOWERING OF HEIGHTS IN CARIBBEAN THE MOVEMENT OF              
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH S WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER              
OUR REGION SUN.                                                                 
TUE/WED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS TROPICAL TROUGH/LOW             
POSSIBLE IN THE REGION. ABOVE CLIMO POPS ARE INDICATED INTO MID                 
WEEK. SYNOPTIC SCHEME COULD VARY GREATLY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL               
ONE FOLLOWS.                                                                    
MARINE...WINDS/SEAS TO INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT              
HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL SUN AT THE EARLIEST.                          
DAB BB 088/073 085/074 085 44223                                                
MCO TB 090/072 088/073 087 44413                                                
MLB BB 089/073 085/075 086 44223=                                               
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
SPRATT/PENDERGRAST                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KJAX 050628  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
227 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
IT HAS GOT TO BE BETTER THAN LAST NIGHT...                                      
A WEAK SFC MESO-LOW DEVELOPED OVER THE S CWA THIS AFTN...MORE OR LESS           
AS PROGGED BY ETA/AVN BUT LATER.  OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOG INLAND ESP              
IN GA CWA.                                                                      
AM FORECAST...WIDESPREAD BUT MODERATE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING BUT                
CLEARING EARLY. 03Z RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING SE TO NEAR KSAV             
BY 06Z...SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT SHOWS CLOUD MASS W OF SAV IN GOOD                
AGREEMENT AND PROGRESSING S INTO OUR FL CWA BY 15Z. ENOUGH DYNAMICS             
TO WARRANT 30 PERCENT POPS IN GA CWA FOR AM AND FL FOR MIDDAY                   
SHOWERS.                                                                        
ETA SHOWS E COAST TROF CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL FL THRU 48 HRS...                
EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF A WEAK CLOSED LOW. 500 MB TEMPS SHOULD                   
CONTINUE AROUND THE -10C LEVEL...BUT WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR CONTINUING             
TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE N ALOFT...THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL             
CONTINUE WITH STRONGEST AFTN STORMS. FOCUS SHOULD AGAIN BE OVER THE S           
HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NEAR GNV AND OCF.                                  
MARINE...ETA SHOWS LIGHT EAST COAST FLOW THRU SAT TO 700 MB ENHANCING           
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RANDOM MESOLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER N AND              
CENT FL. LONGER TERM...AVN/MRF CONTINUES TO SHOW TROF/WEAK LO                   
DEVELOPMENT S OF THE BAHAMAS BY SUN AND TRACKS IT SLOWLY N WITH NOT             
MUCH DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN NE TO E WINDS IN THE COASTALS           
SUN.                                                                            
NO PROBLEM WITH EXISTING ZONES..BUT WOULD LIKE HIGHER POPS COASTAL GA           
AND IN FL VIC OF GNV/OCF                                                        
AMG 93/67/90/67 3121                                                            
SSI 84/72/80/70 3121                                                            
JAX 90/70/88/68 3232                                                            
GNV 87/71/86/70 4333 13                                                         
WELSH                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 050616  fl                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
117 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SFC HI MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND                  
COAST...ERN NC WILL STAY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE             
AND LOW MEAN RH VALUES. ABOUT THE ONLY QUESTION IN THE FCST IS THE              
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY. AREA OBS AND SATPIX SHOW SOME PATCHY               
LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS. LAST                 
NIGHT'S SOUNDING SHOWED VERY DRY AIR ABOVE ABOUT 750 MB...WHICH ETA             
TIME SECTIONS ALSO SHOW. FEEL THAT ALOT OF THE MID CLOUDS WILL MIX              
OUT WITH PERHAPS SOME EARLY MORNING STRATOCU/FOG AND SOME CUMULUS               
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL-IN-ALL...PARTLY SUNNY SHOULD WORK FINE                
TODAY. MOS AND LCL TEMP SCHEMES AGREE WELL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF              
HATTERAS WHERE THE LCL SCHEME IS COOLER. WILL LEAN A LTL COOLER A               
HATTERAS GIVEN YESTERDAY'S NUMBERS. OVERALL...MAXES IN THE MID 80S              
WITH 75 TO 80 AT HATTERAS WITH MINS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. NO PRECIP               
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.                                                     
COASTAL...A BIT OF A NIGHTTIME SURGE NOW CALMING DOWN ON THE AREA               
MARINE OBS. ETA AND RUC-II BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS KEEP THINGS AT            
15 KTS OR BLO AND WILL FOLLOW SUIT.                                             
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
COLLINS                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KILM 050458  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
858 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
PATCHY CS DRFTG ACRS ERN HALF OF NC SO WILL RETAIN MCLR TO PCLDY                
WRDG. MHX 00Z SNDG SHWG A MOIST SFC-850 LYR COINCIDING WITH DEPTH OF            
NE FLOW. RUC SFC DEWPOINTS PROJECTED TO REMAIN NR 60F OVRNGHT SO                
MENTION OF INLAND FOG STILL GOOD AS WINDS DECOUPLE ACRS WRN ZONES.              
BREEZES ALG COAST LIKELY TO KEEP FOG WELL ENOUGH DISPERSED TO PREVENT           
VSBY PROBLEMS. GOING FCST TEMPS ARE FINE.                                       
IN THE WATERS...PRES GRAD SURGE LTL FURTHER S THAN RUC PROGS...BUT              
NOT ENOUGH TO CHANGE GOING FCST WINDS. ALTHOUGH PRETTY LIGHT FROM               
DUCK TO ALBEMARLE SOUND ATTM...SECONDARY SURGE NOT OUT OF THE                   
QUESTION. NO CHANGES TO MARINE PACKAGE.                                         
.MHX...NONE.                                                                    
MJC                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KRAH 050047  nc                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DUE TO EAST FLOW. DEWPOINTS ACROSS AREA IN        
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER GULF COAST/TX WILL SLOWLY          
BUILD OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH PERIOD. WATCHING CONVECTIVE              
SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL TN. RUCII MODEL INDICATES MID LEVEL VORT MAX         
WEST OF MOUNTAINS BY 15Z...AND WEAKENING. 1000-500 MB THICKNESS PATTERN         
SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL STAY WEST OF REGION. ETA/AVN WEAKER WITH VORT           
MAX AND FURTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WEST OF AREA. AIRMASS MODERATELY              
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIS -4 CAPES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BUT ALL             
MODELS SHOW STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. NO CONVECTION FORECAST TODAY...WITH           
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE CI FROM TN STORMS WILL CONTINUE PARTLY          
CLOUDY FORECAST. T-SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW SUNDAY        
AND STRONGER CAP WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY.                                          
LITTLE LOW LEVEL TEMP ADVECTION...LOCAL HIGH TEMP SCHEMES A LITTLE              
COOLER THAN NGM MOS...HOWEVER NGM HAS BEEN GOOD LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.            
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE FROM GUIDANCE.                  
.CAE...NONE.                                                                    
AWP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 050547  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
145 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
RUC SHOWS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH TN THIS MORNING ON E                  
SIDE OF RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM SHOWN TO SLOW AND WEAKEN AS UPPER                    
RIDGE BUILDS. CURRENT ACTIVITY IN TN VALLEY MOVING SSE ALONG                    
THERMAL GRADIENT AND SHOULD EITHER JUST MISS OR JUST CLIP W                     
MOST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PERSIST...              
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO LINGER OVER GA/SC AND NC MOUNTAINS.                 
WITH UPPER RIDGE BULDING AND SHIFTING VORT TRACK TO NE...                       
TRIGGERRING MECHANISMS WILL BE LACKING AFTER THIS MORNING.                      
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO S AND W WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE...BUT AIR              
MASS WILL MODIFY ONLY SLOWLY AS GULF INFLOW AND WARM ADVECTION                  
REMAIN WELL W OF AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT                
ON TAP...WITH DEBRIS CIRRUS W PORTION MAIN CONCERN TODAY.                       
AVL 80/58/82 100                                                                
CLT 84/62/85 000                                                                
GSP 85/63/86 -00                                                                
.GSP...NONE.                                                                    
JAT                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 050133  sc                                      

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1020 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
CURRENTLY...13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW                 
ACROSS C FL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY INDICATE INFLOW INTO OLD                  
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS                         
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL WATCH THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION                  
TRIGGER. 10Z CAPE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL               
MOISTURE (PWAT OF 1.4") AND COOL H5 TEMPS (-9C). LAYER OF VERY DRY              
AIR BETWEEN H5 AND H7 YIELDING LOCAL MDPI VALUES NEAR 1.0...WHICH               
POINTS TO STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH                
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.                                                    
FORECAST...WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY NOON               
ALONG THE COAST AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC                
SCALE EASTERLY FLOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE THE             
SEA BREEZE AN EXTRA PUSH. RUC MODEL PROGS STEERING FLOW TO INCREASE             
OUT OF THE NE AT NEAR 15 MPH...WHICH WILL PUSH STORMS INLAND AND                
TOWARDS THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. SO CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION             
OF 20% FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AND 30/40% INTERIOR LOOKS GOOD. MAX                 
TEMPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH FOR COASTAL SECTIONS (SOUTH OF THE CAPE)                
GIVEN EXPECTED EARLY ONSET OF SEA BREEZE THERE SO WILL LOWER MAXES              
THERE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                         
MARINE...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS BASED ON THE MORNING             
RUC. RESIDUAL S COMPONENT TO WINDS @ BUOYS 009/010 WILL COLLAPSE AS             
SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND PRES FALLS OCCUR OVER THE             
SE BAHAMAS.                                                                     
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
KELLY/CRISTALDI                                                                 
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KEYW 051414   fl                                     

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL                                      
659 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
SATELLITE TELLS IT ALL. MCC ACROSS MINNESOTA IS JUST NOW TURNING AND            
WILL MISS US NOW. RUC SHOWS MCC MOVING AROUND THE EDGE OF +12 C                 
ISOTHERM AT 700 MB WHICH IS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS               
PROGGED TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID-MORNING.                              
THUS WILL DROP WATCH AND UPDATE ALL ZONES TO GO DRY.                            
COORDINATED WITH LSE AND DSM.                                                   
NC                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KDMX 051146  ia                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
922 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
LATEST SAT/RADAR SHOWING VORT MAX SPINNING INTO CENTRAL KY AND THIS             
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SEWD TODAY AND EXIT ERN KY THIS AFTN. FEEL BEST           
CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE IN SW CWA WHERE BEST MOIST CONVERGENCE IS THIS          
MORNING AND THETA-E AIR. 09Z RUC SHOWS MOISTURE DIVERGENCE AT LOW LVLS          
OCCURRING THIS AFTN IN SRN KY AND HAS IT MORE IN FAR ERN KY. DO NOT             
FORESEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN COVERAGE IN THE ERN FA...BUT MAY KEEP           
SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE AFTN. GIVING THAT PCPN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO SW           
CWA THIS MORNING WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO CHANGE WORDING. MAY HAVE TO            
UPDATE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN PERIOD AFTER LOOKING AT MORE MODEL DATA.              
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIR.                 
.JKL...NONE                                                                     
WHP                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KLMK 050828  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON                                   
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.  SOME            
THIN CIRRUS EXTENDING ACROSS PA AND INTO CENTRAL OH IS SLOWLY MOVING            
TOWARD THE AREA.. BUT SHOULD ERODE AS IT WORKS INTO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.          
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CU/SC                  
DEVELOPMENT TODAY... AND MOSTLY SUNNY FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD.                 
TEMPS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE 3-HOURLY FWC GUIDANCE. 03Z            
ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH SUPPORTING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S THIS                     
AFTERNOON... AND RAMS OUTPUT ALSO HINTING AT TEMPS BEING A LITTLE               
WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.  WILL RAISE TEMPS UP A CATEGORY FOR THE           
AFTERNOON.  WILL BREAK OFF A ZONE GROUP ALONG THE BAY AS SOUTHEAST FLOW         
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE WATER A LITTLE COOLER.                               
.LWX...NONE.                                                                    
MARGRAF!                                                                        
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KLWX 050630  md                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
CURRENT 88D/LDS LOOPS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST            
AREA. AT THIS TIME...MAIN BAND OF PRECIP COVERED MARQUETTE AND                  
BARAGA COUNTIES SOUTHWARD. PRECIP HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT OF THE                
WESTERN COUNTIES. VIS LOOP SHOWS CLEARING BEGINNING OVER NORTHERN               
WISCONSIN AND FAR WESTERN UPPER. THICK CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ACROSS                
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOUDS IN THE WEST BEGINNING TO                
CLEAR AND CLOUDS IN THE EAST BEGINNING TO INCREASE.                             
GOING FORECAST EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS                
THEY MOVED INTO MORE STABLE AIR. 09Z/12Z RUC COMPARISON SHOWS A                 
TREND TO INCREASE INSTABILITY. LIFTED INDEXES ARE ABOUT 2C LOWER                
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEW RUN. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE            
CONTINUING PRECIP AND THICKER CLOUD DECK...AND TO BUMP THE TEMPS                
DOWN ACCORDINGLY.                                                               
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JHB                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 051539  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1134 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
LATEST SURFACE CHART HAS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER                          
MIDWEST/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS                     
MICHIGAN. A WARM FRONT WAS LYING FROM THE MAIN LOW CENTER OVER                  
MINNESOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LAST              
NIGHTS MCS IS CURRENTLY DYING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. AND NORTHERN              
WISCONSIN. IT HAS BEGUN TO TURN TO THE WEST RECENTLY FOLLOWING THE              
H850-H300 THICKNESS FIELD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON                 
CENTERS ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.                                    
12Z RUC/APX SOUNDING STAYS WITH THE FLAVOR OF THE 00Z MODELS AND                
GOING FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS A RESULT. STRONG WARM/MOISTURE              
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH             
IT IS STRONGER IS TO THE WEST. BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE WEST AS              
WELL WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...UPPER JET AND BEST LOW LEVEL                    
CONVERGENCE. NEVERTHELESS...FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONDITIONS               
ARE ATTAINABLE ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE.                 
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL KEEP INSOLATION DOWN SOME. STILL               
FEEL COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT EASTERN UPPER             
AND FAR NORTHWEST LOWER. BEST CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN               
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WITH APPROACH OF WARM FRONT AND WHERE               
BEST INSOLATION IS EXPECTED.                                                    
OTHERWISE...HAVE FRESHENED UP WIND WORDING AND LOWERED A FEW TEMPERATURES       
DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.                                                       
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
BAK                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KGRR 051514  mi                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                      
CONCERN TONIGHT IS CONVECTION.                                                  
500MB PATTERN HAS A CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS AND A RIDGE                 
EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA UP TOWARD MINNESOTA. THE 500MB FLOW ACROSS             
SOUTHERN CANADA IS COMPARATIVELY ZONAL... BUT THERE IS A TROF ALOFT             
JUST EAST OF LAKE WINNIPEG AND A SECOND 500MB TROF OVER                         
SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE... THERE IS A LOW JUST EAST OF LAKE                
WINNIPEG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST                       
MINNESOTA... ACROSS THE DAKOTAS... AND DOWN TO ANOTHER LOW IN                   
COLORADO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS.                 
RESULTING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE PLAINS IS STRONG OUT OF THE              
SOUTH. 00Z METARS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 70F DEWPOINTS FROM EASTERN               
KANSAS TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. AIRMASS INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOW              
GOOD CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT THAT DROPS                
SOUTHWEST FROM THE WINNIPEG LOW...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE THEIR                      
DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS. 12Z ETA SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON              
POSITION OF SURFACE FRONT BASED ON LOCATION OF EVENING CONVECTION...            
AND IS PREFERRED MODEL. ETA SHOWS SHOWALTER INDICES FROM -4 TO -10C             
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE FRONT. 850MB THETA E RIDGE IS IN THIS             
AREA AS WELL. 850MB WINDS ARE STRONGEST FROM NEBRASKA SOUTH... BUT              
THEY ARE WEAKER TO THE NORTH. THIS LEADS TO SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE              
DOWN IN NEBRASKA AREA. ETA 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE PATTERN SHOWS SOME             
DIVERGENCE OVER WISCONSIN AT 00Z... BUT THERE'S NOT MUCH CONVECTION             
THERE. OTHER MODELS SHOW BLAND 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE PATTERN OVER               
THE U.P. AT 00Z.                                                                
FOR REMAINDER OF TONIGHT... THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST                 
CONUS WON'T BUDGE AND WILL THUS PREVENT PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC                 
FEATURE OVER CONUS. THE WINNIPEG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD         
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT... BUT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ANCHORED BACK IN            
COLORADO AND WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH                
12Z. ETA DEVELOPS SOME PRONOUNCED 250MB WIND DIVERGENCE OVER THE                
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY 06Z... NGM AND RUC HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS BUT              
DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THIS PERHAPS DUE TO MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER                 
PLAINS TONIGHT IN AREAS OF STRONG AND MOIST 850MB INFLOW. BY 12Z                
250MB DIVERGENCE IS STILL FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO BE SOUTH AND                
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB THETA E VALUES DO INCREASE OVER                
U.P. TONIGHT... BUT BEST VALUES REMAIN OVER CENTRAL PLAINS IN AREAS             
OF 850MB WIND CONVERGENCE.                                                      
WITH FRONTALLY TRIGGERED CONVECTION REMAINING IN MINNESOTA AND MCS              
ACTION PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P... DO NOT EXPECT             
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...                  
MAINLY IN THE WEST AND ALONG WISCONSIN BORDER TONIGHT.                          
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
ES                                                                              
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KAPX 050202  mi                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
SLGT WKNS IN THE ISOBARIC PAT ACRS NWRN ADRNDCKS AT 13Z WHILE KBUF              
RADAR PAINTING SOME MOIST AC ACRS WRN PTN OF LK ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH               
TEMPS STARTING FEW DEG LWR IN MOST SPOTS THIS MRNG...AFTN MAX TEMPS             
MAY EXCEED READINGS FM YDA IN RESPONSE TO RISING H10-H5 THKNS PER               
LASTEST RUC. CI REMOVING ITSELF SEBND S OF ABT 25NW KMSV-20NW KBDL              
LN...THUS WL REPHRASE CLDS FOR MORE ERY AFTN SUNSHINE WITH SOME                 
RETURN OF CI AND PERHAPS AC DURG LT AFTN...OTRW LTLCG. MCKINLEY/GJM             
.ALB...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE.                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KBUF 051357  ny                                      

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
235 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
IN SHORT TERM...PATCHY STRATUS OVER SE SECTION OF CWA A RESULT OF               
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WITH FETCH ORIGINATING OFF ATLANTIC.                
ISOLD -SHRA NOTED ON 88D ALSO ON OBS FROM KFAY AND KFBG. RUC MODEL              
DEPICTS THIS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW/SPEED CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY                    
SHIFTING WEST-SW THUS SHOULD LOW STRATUS BY DAYBREAK MAINLY CONFINED            
TO EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. STRATUS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED              
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION...                 
...ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO BOUNDARY LAYER. MAY START OUT                       
FORECAST FOR TODAY AS "PATCHY EARLY MORNING LOWS CLOUDS/ISOLD                   
SHOWER" IN THE EXTREME SOUTH.                                                   
OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF BUILDING RIDGE IN THE LOWER AND              
UPPER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH FORECAST                   
PERIOD.  BAFFLED TO WHY MOS WENT A CATEGORY LOWER IN HIGH TEMPS AT              
RDU TODAY VERSUS FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 TRAJECTORIES               
INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS PLUS EXPECT THE SAME AMOUNT OF CLOUD            
COVER TODAY AS FRIDAY. THUS WILL GO WITH HIGHS TODAY COMPARABLE TO              
HIGHS REGISTERED FRI.                                                           
ON SUN...AS MID/UPR LEVEL HIGH SETTLES CLOSE TO REGION...EXPECT                 
DAYTIME TEMPS TO WARM ONE CATEGORY AS SUGGESTED BY LOW LEVEL                    
THICKNESS VALUES. IF ETA VALUES ARE ACHIEVED...A FEW PLACES (IE                 
RDU/RWI/FAY) COULD HIT 90. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S WHICH IS              
STILL WARMER THAN MOS.                                                          
RDU 85/60/88 000                       GSO 83/60/86 000                         
                   FAY 86/62/88 000                                             
.RDU...NONE                                                                     
WSS                                                                             
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KMHX 050518  nc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
PRIMARY FORECAST QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WHETHER CONVECTION              
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. TSRA DEVELOPED THIS MORNING              
JUST S/SW OF FORECAST AREA...ALONG STATIONARY FRONT/INVOF MID LEVEL             
VORTMAX AND AIDED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MCS THAT PASSED THROUGH              
THAT AREA LAST NIGHT.                                                           
AS FLOW TURNS TOWARD S/SW...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE               
EAST AND INTO THE FA TODAY. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL VORT/SHEAR AXIS               
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TOWARD THE E/SE AS MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS              
INTO THE REGION. INTERACTION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHEAR AXIS                 
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR WIDELY SCT TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...              
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY IF REGION BECOMES                 
VERY UNSTABLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST ETA/MESOETA SOLUTIONS. ON              
THE OTHER HAND...MID LEVELS WILL WARM AS RIDGE BUILDS IN...AND                  
RESULTING CAP MAY WELL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT                              
CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IF INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL PER THE               
LATEST NGM/RUC MODELS. PERFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...SINCE             
I CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL                  
INTRODUCE 20% POPS TO ALL AREAS EXCEPT CMH VICINITY. HOWEVER...WILL             
NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON IS PRECIP FREE.                 
MEANWHILE...CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION FIRING TO N OF FORECAST                  
AREA ON OUTFLOW OF MCS HEADING INTO MI...AND H8-H3 THERMAL WIND                 
SUGGESTS ANY SUCH CONVECTION COULD DROP DUE SOUTH AND INTO FORECAST             
AREA...MOST LIKELY TONIGHT.                                                     
PER 12Z ILN SOUNDING...WILL ADJUST TEMPS UPWARD ACROSS THE N 1/2                
OF FORECAST AREA. ALSO...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND                              
DIRECTION...SHOULD TURN TOWARD SW WITH AFTERNOON MIXING.                        
MISILN OUT BY 1030 AM...ZONES CLOSE BEHIND.                                     
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KCLE 051410  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1220 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE CLOUDS FOR ALL AREAS. ACROSS THE                 
UPSTATE...FOOTHILLS AND SRN MTNS WENT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. SE FLOW              
CONTINUES TO POOL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. DWPTS STILL RISING FROM GSO            
TO HKY TO SVH. IN FACT...IT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE                        
INTERESTING FOR CONVECTION...BUT HAVE LEFT THAT OUT. RAH VAD HAS NE             
FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS...SO DRY AIR IS NOT IN ANY REAL BIG HURRY TO              
GET IN HERE. INTERESTING HOW DIFFERENT THE LLVL SOLUTIONS OF THE                
12Z RUC AND 03Z ETA HAVE BEEN AS FAR AS BRINGING IN DRIER BNDRY                 
LAYER AIR. NEITHER ONE WAS ACCURATE IN CATCHING THE POOLING ALONG THE           
LEE SLOPES.                                                                     
.GSP...NONE                                                                     
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS62 KGSP 051412  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1011 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
KIND OF A MESS THIS MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE                   
PREVALENT THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS H8             
DWPTS OF +14 DEG C AT CHS. VAD WINDS HAVE SEVERAL GATES OF                      
SELY FLOW...AND CURRENT VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS GENERALLY                     
CLEARING IN THE MIDLANDS BUT THICKENING IN THE UPSTATE AND THE                  
ERN MTNS. THUS IT APPEARS THAT UPSLOPE IS ENHANCING CLOUDS OVER                 
THE REGION. BASED ON THE 12Z RUC...THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO                   
ERRODE AS SFC PRESSURE RISE FROM THE NE AND CONVERGENCE IS PUSHED               
S AND W OF THE REGION.                                                          
H7 TEMPS ARE AROUND +8 DEG C OVER THE REGION. ASIDE FROM SOME WEAK              
CONVECTION FIRING IN CONVERGENCE AXIS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING I                 
THINK CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED TDA. THERE MAY BE A FEW                   
ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE MTNS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE                  
ZONES.                                                                          
APPEARS THAT BEST BET WL BE TO GO BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ALL ZONES.              
THINK WARM MID LEVELS WL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST CU THIS AFTN.               
.GSP...NONE                                                                     
MCAVOY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS72 KCAE 051359  sc                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1035 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
WL PRBLY UPDATE THE ZONES IN THE ERLY AFTN. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN             
IS WINDS OVR THE CWA...AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE SERN ZONE. LATEST RUC              
SHOWS SFC LOW REDEVELOPMENT OVR NERN CO LATER THIS AFTN...WITH THE              
FRONT RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF WEST OF HON...FM NERN SD THRU CNTRL SD.            
IT APPEARS THAT CWA MAY BE IN A COL AREA...HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS            
AT A SLOWER SPEED AND MAKING THE SWRN PTN OF CWA FROM THE EAST TO SE.           
TEMP WISE...MAY HAVE TO UP THE TEMPS OVR NWRN IA SINCE THINGS ARE               
WARMING UP RATHER RAPIDLY THERE.                                                
OF COURSE...NXT QUESTION IS WHERE AND WHEN CONVECTION DVLPS.                    
THINKING RIGHT NOW THAT INITIAL CONVECTION MAY FIRE NR THE SFC BNDRY            
WHERE LLVL CONVERGENCE IS HIGH...OVR CNTRL OR NCNTRL NEB. RUC PROGS             
IMPRESSIVE DRY LINE INTO WRN KS...AND ALMOST CNTRL NEB BY 00Z. DEW              
PTS ARE CRNTLY IN THE TEENS ACRS ERN CO. CRNTLY...SFC BASED LI'S ARE            
-10 IN NWRN IA...AND CAPES ARE APRCHING 4000 IN THIS AREA. PLOTS                
SHOW 105 TO 120KT JET IN NM MOVG NEWD...AND TREMENDOUS AMNT OF MID              
LVL COOLING. LLVL AND MID LVL JET IS 40 TO 50 KTS SOUTH OF CWA.                 
ANIMATIONS SHOW AIR IS FINALLY DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY ACRS CNTRL NEB             
TO SCNTRL SD NR LLVL CONVERGENCE.                                               
THE ONE BIG QUESTION IS DIR SHEAR. WITH COL AREA SETTING UP OVR                 
CWA...WINDS ARE SETTING UP LIGHTER AND MORE SRLY THAN SERLY AT THE              
SFC AND BNDRY LYR OVR CWA. WL SEE HOW MUCH THEY TURN TO THE SE AS               
THE DAY WEARS ON. NEW RUC DOES NOT REALLY TURN THEM TOWARD THE SE.              
STILL...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION OVR SWRN CWA AND SWD...ONE CAN               
EXPECT TSTM DVLPMENT TO FOLLOW THETA-E RIDGING AND MSTR AXIS LATE               
TDAY...FM NCNTRL NEB...TO SERN SD...SWRN MN AND NWRN IA.                        
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
FUHS                                                                            
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KABR 051513  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
840 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 1999                                                       
THIS MIGHT BE AS CLOSE TO THIS FCSTR COMES TO USING A MODEL AS IS...            
BUT RUC SEEMS TO BE NAILING DEVELOPING EVENT ON THE HEAD.  VERY STG             
IMPULSE SEEN ON 6.7UM WV LOOP LIFTING INTO WRN NEBRASKA...AND                   
ENTICING TREMENDOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACRS WRN NEBRASKA AND              
INTO SRN SD.  RAOBS ACRS REGION ARE BASICALLY A LOADED GUN...WITH CAP           
ALLOWING SFC DWPTS WELL INTO LWR 70S...STLT SOUNDER SHOWING -11 TO              
-14C LI OVER MUCH OF CWA...AND FITS IN WELL WITH RAOBS.  CAPES RANGE            
FM 2500-4000 J/KG...AND BRN SHEAR IS SCREAMING SUPERCELLULAR.  SCARY            
ASPECT IS INDUCTION OF STG LLJ BY WRN PLAINS WAVE...ALREADY CRANKING            
UP TO 40 KTS ON FBY AND MRR PROF...BUT LOW LVL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO                
HAVE WORKED UP TO NR KFSD AT MID EVNG.  CANNOT DISPUTE OBS...SO                 
BASICALLY...WHAT HAPPENS TO CONVECTION AND SEVERITY IS PROBLEM FOR              
NIGHT.  EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO REMAIN TIED TO THE LLJ FOR               
THE MOST PART...FIRST RIDING THE CAP EDGE/BOUNDARY NNEWARD THIS                 
EVENING...THEN MAKING THE BIG EWRD TURN AND EVENTUALLY SE BY MRNG.              
ATTM...I AM FAVORING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF LST NIGHT WITH THE                
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAP NOSING IN...WHICH WOULD IMPACT WRN AND NRN                
CWA...9V9...HON...BKX...MML...MWM MOST.  THIS WAS GENERAL IDEA OF               
PREV FCST...SO ANY CHGS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT.                          
THE WHOLE GAMUT OF SVR WX IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL                 
HAVE TO BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TRACK OF HEAVY RAINS...IF                    
ATTEMPT TO TRACK CLOSER TO MO RVR LATER...WITH GREATER FLOODING                 
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION.                                                       
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
CHAPMAN                                                                         
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KUNR 042117  sd                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY                                         
300 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
SAT PICS / WATER VAPOR & VSB IMAGERY / SHOWS VORT S OF LEX AT MID               
AFTN...DROPPING SEWD.  LATEST RUC MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS ITEM               
BETTER THAN ANY OF THE THE 12Z GUIDE. INITIAL BURST OF TSTMS SHUD               
EXIT SRN KY SHORTLY...ALTHOUGH NEW DVLPMNT NOTED ON NRN FLANK.                  
MEANWHILE...APPEARS OUTFLOW BNDRY WAS SURGING WWD... AND IS ABOUT TO            
INTERCEPT VERY MOIST JUICY AIR -- NEAR CU FIELD IN CNTRL KY.  LAPPS             
AND MSAS DATA SHOWING BEST CONVG ACRS THE WRN PART OF OUR FA AT MID             
AFTN WITH DECENT CAPES AND LI'S.  STILL SOME CONVECTIVE                         
INHIBITION...BUT BELIEVE WITH OLD BNDRY IN VCNTY...IT IS PRUDENT TO             
KEEP SML POP INTO THE EVNG HOURS.                                               
MODELS THEN VERY SIMILAR IN BUILDING UPR RDG ACRS THE LWR OHIO                  
VLY FM SUN INTO MONDAY.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LVL CAPPING...             
SO WUD ONLY EXPECT A FEW BUILDUPS AND NO PCPN INTO AT LEAST ERY NXT             
WEEK.                                                                           
GUIDE TEMPS LOOK IN BALLPARK THIS FCST CYCLE... AND LTL DEVIATION               
NECESSARY.                                                                      
.SDF...NONE.                                                                    
STUREY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS71 KRLX 051858  ky                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
245 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND EVEN SOME        
WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING PER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS BETWEEN DAY AND            
CMH...MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY LACK OF               
WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS FA. 15Z RUC STILL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP SOME                 
CONVECTION UNDER MID LEVEL VORT AXIS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED NEAR S               
CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVE. ALSO...BAND OF CU HAS DEVELOPED WELL W OF            
FA...WHERE DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE MID 70S...AND THIS CU FIELD APPEARS          
TO BE SPREADING EAST TOWARD W COUNTIES OF FA. THUS...STILL CANNOT               
RULE OUT AN ISOLD LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE TSRA ACROSS THE FAR                  
S/W...BUT MOST LIKELY CAP WILL PREVENT TSRA...SO WILL LEAVE EVE FORECASTS       
DRY. REGARDING EARLIER CONCERN THAT CONVECTION POSSIBLY FIRING ALONG            
OUTFLOW OF MCS IN N GREAT LAKES MIGHT PUSH TOWARD THE S PER H8-H3               
THERMAL WIND...12Z MODEL RUN SUGGESTS THAT STRONG CAP WILL EXIST                
BETWEEN N CONVECTION AND FA...SO THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR                  
LIKELY.                                                                         
MONDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PUSH THROUGH THE               
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...RIDGE AT SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER             
FA FLATTEN AND BAND OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ADVANCES TO JUST WEST OF            
FA BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PER 12Z AVN THIS BAND OF MOISTURE               
WEAKENS AS IT PUSHES INTO FA MON. 0Z RUN OF CANADIAN MODEL ALSO                 
SUGGESTED THAT MOISTURE WOULD BE LIMITED AND PRECIP WOULD NOT OCCUR             
IN THE FA WITH THIS FEATURE. COULD STILL BE WIDELY SCT TSRA MON...              
BUT IN CURRENT DRY PATTERN WILL GO WITH NGM/AVN POPS...BLO 20% ALL              
AREAS...AND WILL LEAVE MON FORECASTS DRY.                                       
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS AND DECREASED LOW LEVEL           
THICKNESSES TUE THRU THU. WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT IN THE EXTENDED            
PERIOD...ALTHO NOT AS MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY 0Z MRF. IN GENERAL...SHOULD          
REMAIN VERY WARM...HUMID AND RAIN-FREE.                                         
MISILN ALREADY OUT...COMMENTS WELCOME.                                          
.ILN...NONE.                                                                    
ROWLEY                                                                          
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS61 KILN 051417  oh                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
150 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                       
PESKY VORT CENTER WILL ROTATE ARND UPPER AIR RDG. ETA AND RUC                   
APPEARS TO BE HANDLING VORT CENTER OVR SE KY BETTER THAN OTHER MDLS.            
15Z RUC TAKES IT MORE SRLY. NGM IS ODD MDL OUT AS IT TAKES VORT CNTR            
TO CRW THIS EVE (00Z SUN) WHILE ETA TAKES IT MORE SWWD. SHOT OF MSTR            
IS AVBL WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SAILS ALG OLD FNTL BNDRY. THIS VORT             
CENTER OUGHT TO SLOWLY WKN AFT SS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 30 POP               
ERLY TNGT FOR AREAS SUCH AS CSV...COOKEVILLE...SPENCER, MANCHESTER              
AND WINCHESTER, 20 POP THIS EVE FOR BNA AND MURFREESBORO,                       
COLUMBIA...LAWRENCEBURG AND PULAKSI. NGM MOS TEMPS LOOK GUD.                    
BNA 69/90/69/90  POP 10,10,0                                                    
CSV 64/84/64/84/ POP 30, 10, 0                                                  
END/ORCHANIAN                                                                   
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS64 KMRX 051825  tn                                      

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1115 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 1999                                                      
THE LAST OFFERINGS FROM THE MCS HAVE PUSHED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE               
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED WARMING CLOUD TOPS            
ACROSS IOWA. CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL APART. PLENTY OF WARM AND             
MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE...WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO 70 IN SOME AREAS.            
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPS IT DRY ALOFT...HOWEVER...AND HAS AREA              
CAPPED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREA ALSO UNDER RIGHT EXIT REGION OF 250         
MB JET...WHICH WILL AID IN "BATTING DOWN" ANY CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES          
WILL APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS               
EVENING...BUT FEEL ANYTHING THAT COULD DEVELOP WILL BE BEYOND THE               
AFTERNOON HOURS...MORE IN THE EARLY EVENING. WILL PULL POPS FOR THIS            
AFTERNOON AND ADD HUMID WORDING TO FORECAST.                                    
.LSE...NONE.                                                                    
RIECK                                                                           
</PRE><HR> <BR><PRE>FXUS63 KARX 051147  wi