AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA                                          
300 AM PDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAY AREA.  IT WILL                
PROBABLY BE HANGING AROUND THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.                 
EXACTLY WHERE IT IS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.  THE                
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE WRF HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE                    
ECMWF...NOT MOVING THE LOW INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNTIL                        
TONIGHT...AND DROPPING IT WELL SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS IT DOES.                
THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN THE WARM SST ANOMALY / RIDGE DEVELOPING             
ALONG 140W. HOWEVER THE LATEST RUC AND CANSAC MM5 MOVE THE LOW                  
INLAND THROUGH ABOUT 00Z BEFORE DROPPING IT SOUTH ALONG THE COAST               
TONIGHT. WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THIS SOLUTION AND A BRING A BAND            
OF SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A MODEST H5 -21C COLD POOL.                
WE'LL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE                  
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.                                                        
IN THE MOUNTAINS EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE WEST                 
SLOPE OF THE SIERRA THIS MORNING PERHAPS AROUND 17Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL          
BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS THE MAIN COLD POOL MAY NEVER               
REALLY MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ABOVE 7000-7500             
FEET AND A QUICK 1-2 INCHES IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST PASSES.          
AS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED WILL TRY TO COVER THIS IN THE                  
ZFP...HWO AND NOWCASTS IF NECESSARY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS TONIGHT               
AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH AND NORCAL IS UNDER WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW.                  
LOOKING AT THE MODELS THIS MORNING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT             
THE LOW WILL SPLIT WITH A PORTION MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE             
ENERGY REMAINS OVER SOCAL INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A LITTLE WARMER                 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.                  
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH A LOT OF SUN AS THE UPPER                
RIDGE NOSES INTO OREGON AND EXTREME NORCAL. SEVERAL MODELS DEPICT A             
DECENT NORTH WIND EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LATEST GFS KEEPS             
THIS UPPER LOW STATIONARY OVER SOCAL ALL THE WAY INTO THE WEEKEND.              
THIS WOULD KEEP IT TOO FAR SOUTH TO AFFECT US...EXCEPT FOR GUSTY                
NORTH WINDS. THE ECMWF DRIFTS IT NORTH ALONG THE COAST BY                       
WEDNESDAY.  WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST            
DRY FOR NOW.  SG                                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND             
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES DOWN THE                     
CALIFORNIA COAST. ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS IN THE BAY AREA ESPECIALLY               
NEAR KSTS IN THE MORNING. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET.                         
&&                                                                              
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
855 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE LOOP SHOWS CLOSED LOW EDGING SWD            
TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING            
ACROSS THE GT LAKES AND MIDWEST. WEDGED IN BETWEEN IS A BUILDING                
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH                   
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LA            
THRU NCNTRL AL...ERN TN TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN NC. SKIES ARE                  
M/CLEAR...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AL               
AND NRN GA. THE 00Z TAE SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HRS              
WRT PWAT (JUST BELOW AN INCH). ONLY NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES ARE                  
SLIGHT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS AND LIGHTER NELY WINDS IN THE LOW              
LEVELS.                                                                         
BASED ON OBS TREND...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TWEAK WINDS. REMAINDER OF             
FIRST PERIOD ON TRACK.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
BUOYS REPORTING NELY WINDS 10-15 KTS AND 2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS UPSTREAM            
AT MOB BUOY HAVE DECREASED BELOW 10 KTS...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED            
FOR OFFSHORE LEGS LATER TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE WINDS WERE NWLY AROUND 5            
KTS...AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE LATER TONIGHT AS WELL.                   
THEREFORE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY WITH THE EVENING FCST UPDATE.                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS ON TAP OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED.                 
VSBYS MAINLY P6SM WITH ISOLATED 3-5SM BR IN SPOTS...KDHN WITH THE               
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG. WIND WILL BE LIGHT & VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.             
COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...SOME INCREASING                    
CLOUDS...STILL VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS &                         
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS 20-30%...& USED            
VCTS WITH CB CLOUDS IN ALL TAFS AROUND 16Z-20Z. EXPECTING A SW WIND             
FLOW AROUND 5 MPH IN THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THEN BECOMING             
W-NW FLOW 5-10 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER               
SUNSET FRIDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND VERIFIED FOR MOST             
INLAND LOCALES. NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY...BUT GRIDS                 
SUPPORT CRITICAL DURATIONS OF LOW RH OVER ALL OUR FLORIDA ZONES                 
SATURDAY AND WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH.                                
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SATURDAY AFTN DUE TO EXPECTED LONG            
     DURATIONS OF LOW RH.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...MCT                                                                  
REST OF DISCUSSION...MAJ                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
855 PM CDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
EVENING SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE               
GREAT LAKES WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UNDER CLEAR                    
SKIES...TEMPS AROUND CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE GENERALLY DROPPED INTO               
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WITH A FEW 40S ACROSS THE NW.  IDEAL                  
RADIATIONAL COOLING LIKELY WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED TONIGHT...AS RIDGE              
AXIS REMAINS JUST NW OF THE KILX CWA AND RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT            
KEEPS WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.  CURRENT ZONES HANDLE                     
OVERNIGHT TRENDS WELL...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND            
LOWER 40S.  WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS...WITH THE BIGGEST             
CHANGE ACROSS THE SE CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED FROM THE                 
MIDDLE 40S INTO THE LOWER 40S.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW DISSIPATING IN EASTERN                     
KENTUCKY...WHILE A TRAINING TROUGH EXTENDS BACK TOWARD CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS. STEADY DRYING ALOFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND THIN                
THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PINCH OF               
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER 100 MB WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z. CU FROM                     
DIURNAL HEATING HAVE REMAINED FARTHER NORTH IN WISCONSIN...AND                  
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE AFFECTING US. MODELS IN              
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ON TRENDS WITH THE HIGH                      
PRESSURE. PROBLEMS ARISE IN THE LONG TERM... WITH THE DEEP LOW                  
PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MAIN ISSUES ARE WITH THE              
TIMING OF THE CANADIAN FRONT FOR WED OR THUR. RIGHT NOW...ECMWF IS              
THE SLOWEST...WITH GFS AND CANADIAN QUICKER. WILL SIDE WITH                     
RUC/NAM IN THE SHORT TERM... AND GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN LONG TERM.                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
TEMPS ARE A MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE              
SETTLING IN TONIGHT... AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY                  
MORNING. QUESTION IS HOW COLD TO GO...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND                
NIGHT OF THE HIGH ON SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE                    
DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BY 12Z SAT AM. SOME RETURN FLOW IS                
POSSIBLE IN OUR NW ZONES...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL BE CALM. H85                
TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY SAT MORNING...BUT RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS CAN DROP LOWS LOWER THAN                
EXPECTED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S                  
TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR READINGS FOR SAT MORNING. EXCEPT ON                      
SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF               
THE CWA. BASICALLY GOING CLOSE TO GUID FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND                   
BELOW GUID FRI NIGHT.                                                           
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH H85 TEMPS                   
REBOUNDING INTO THE 16-17C RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMP TRENDS               
WERE ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...WITH LITTLE CHANGES THERE.             
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
AN WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT                
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND SOURCES OF LIFT WILL BE WEAK.                 
THE FRONT ACTUALLY WILL BE GOING THROUGH FRONTOLYSIS BY THE TIME                
IT REACHES US...AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IF                         
ANYTHING...MAYBE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE CAA REGIME.                   
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LONG WAVE VORTEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO                
DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING BY WED                      
EVENING. MODELS USUALLY TREND SLOWER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES...BUT              
FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN                
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MAJOR H5 WAVE AND COLD PUSH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS              
ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH... BUT ANOMALOUS SOLUTIONS ARE                 
NOT USUALLY FORECAST AS WELL IN THE LONG TERM.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BARNES/SHIMON                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
136 PM CDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW DISSIPATING IN EASTERN                     
KENTUCKY...WHILE A TRAINING TROUGH EXTENDS BACK TOWARD CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS. STEADY DRYING ALOFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN AND THIN                
THE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PINCH OF               
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER 100 MB WILL DISSIPATE BY 06Z. CU FROM                     
DIURNAL HEATING HAVE REMAINED FARTHER NORTH IN WISCONSIN...AND                  
THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET BEFORE AFFECTING US. MODELS IN              
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM ON TRENDS WITH THE HIGH                      
PRESSURE. PROBLEMS ARISE IN THE LONG TERM... WITH THE DEEP LOW                  
PRESSURE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. MAIN ISSUES ARE WITH THE              
TIMING OF THE CANADIAN FRONT FOR WED OR THUR. RIGHT NOW...ECMWF IS              
THE SLOWEST...WITH GFS AND CANADIAN QUICKER. WILL SIDE WITH                     
RUC/NAM IN THE SHORT TERM... AND GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN LONG TERM.                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                            
TEMPS ARE A MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE              
SETTLING IN TONIGHT... AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY                  
MORNING. QUESTION IS HOW COLD TO GO...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SECOND                
NIGHT OF THE HIGH ON SATURDAY MORNING. WE ARE EXPECTED TO BE                    
DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS BY 12Z SAT AM. SOME RETURN FLOW IS                
POSSIBLE IN OUR NW ZONES...BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL BE CALM. H85                
TEMPS DO MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY SAT MORNING...BUT RADIATIONAL                     
COOLING UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS CAN DROP LOWS LOWER THAN                
EXPECTED. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S                  
TONIGHT...WITH SIMILAR READINGS FOR SAT MORNING. EXCEPT ON                      
SATURDAY MORNING...THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF               
THE CWA. BASICALLY GOING CLOSE TO GUID FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND                   
BELOW GUID FRI NIGHT.                                                           
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AFTER SATURDAY MORNING...WITH H85 TEMPS                   
REBOUNDING INTO THE 16-17C RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMP TRENDS               
WERE ALREADY HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...WITH LITTLE CHANGES THERE.             
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...                                          
AN WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT                
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND SOURCES OF LIFT WILL BE WEAK.                 
THE FRONT ACTUALLY WILL BE GOING THROUGH FRONTOLYSIS BY THE TIME                
IT REACHES US...AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IF                         
ANYTHING...MAYBE SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE CAA REGIME.                   
THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE LONG WAVE VORTEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO                
DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING BY WED                      
EVENING. MODELS USUALLY TREND SLOWER AS THE EVENT APPROACHES...BUT              
FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN                
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT MAJOR H5 WAVE AND COLD PUSH. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS              
ARE NOT AS SHARP WITH THE TROUGH... BUT ANOMALOUS SOLUTIONS ARE                 
NOT USUALLY FORECAST AS WELL IN THE LONG TERM.                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HUETTL                                                             
LONG TERM....SHIMON                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 AM CDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS SE IL WHERE                 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN             
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.                                                        
15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF                   
LEXINGTON IN CENTRAL KY WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS LOW. A COLD                
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV...CENTRAL KY AND WESTERN TN WHILE 1033 MB                
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN WI TO EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND RIDGING             
SW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALOFT A 592 DM 500 MB HIGH                   
PRESSURE WAS OVER TX AND RIDGING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE             
ROCKIES WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A              
SHORT WAVE IN KY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCU CLOUDS BELOW 3000 FT              
WERE FROM THE IL RIVER SE WHILE CLEARING SKIES NW OF THE IL RIVER.              
LOWEST CEILING NEAR 1000 FT OVER SE IL. NE BREEZES 10 TO 20 MPH                 
FILTERED IN MUCH COOLER AIR TODAY WITH LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE MID            
TO UPPER 50S WITH AREAS FROM LITCHFIELD TO FLORA AND LAWRENCEVILLE              
AROUND 60F.                                                                     
USED RUC AND NAM/WRF 800 TO 900 MB LAYER 60 PERCENT RH FOR CLEARING             
WHICH MOVES FROM THE IL RIVER LATE THIS MORNING TO I-55 AROUND                  
18Z/EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO SE IL...SE OF I-70 BY 00Z/SUNSET.                  
CURULE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CUMULUS CLOUDS REDEVLOPING OVER CENTRAL IL            
ONCE CLEARING MOVES IN. BEST DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IVER OVER            
NE AND SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA PER NAM/WRF CURULE THIS AFTERNOON.               
RUC AND NAM/WRF BOTH HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AT 21Z WITH               
COOLEST READINGS NE AREAS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
FRONT MADE IT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH                  
LITTLE FANFARE AND ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL              
CLOUDS LEFT IN THE WAKE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY                 
DRIFT SWD INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL                  
SPILLING OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON WV SATELLITE IMAGERY.  MAIN              
ISSUES FOR THIS FORECAST RUN WILL BE TEMPERATURES...AS THERE IS                 
LITTLE ELSE TO DEAL WITH OTHER THAN HIGH PRESSURE AND THE PASSAGE OF            
AN INCREASINGLY DRY FRONT ON MONDAY.  NO REASON TO STRAY FROM A                 
BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT ARE COMING TOGETHER NICELY.  SPREAD IN THE             
MOS IS A LITTLE MORE OF AN ISSUE...BUT WILL KEEP IN LINE WITH                   
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PERSISTENCE AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS.                  
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...                                          
FRONT IS GONE... NOW HOW FAST THE LOW CLOUDS GET OUT OF HERE IS THE             
NEXT ISSUE.  GOING WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC CLEARING AFTER NOON                   
ACCORDING TO RH TIME HEIGHTS.  MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY LINGER A                    
BIT...ENOUGH TO HOLD THE TEMPERATURES TO A RELATIVELY COOL MID 60S              
IN COMPARISON TO THE DAYS PRIOR.  TONIGHT...CLEARED OUT SKIES AND               
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP THE TEMPS EFFECTIVELY...MAKING A TRUE             
WARM UP FOR FRIDAY A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT. MOS DROPPING A BIT...AND            
HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE FORECAST...BUT HESITATE TO DROP TOO LOW             
CONSIDERING 7-9C AT H85...PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE            
THAT...AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.  FRIDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AND               
HELP TO REALLY WARM UP...12-13C AT 850MB IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MID            
TO UPPER 70S YET AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.                                 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED             
NOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.  HAVE BACKED OFF THE POPS IN THE              
FORECAST AS MODELS BEGINNING TO INDICATE A DRY PASSAGE.  LACK OF                
SIGNIFICANT LAYER MOISTURE AND THE LOW EJECTING MORE TO THE                     
NORTHEAST...WEAK LIFT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  LEAVING THE LOW SILENT            
20S IN THERE AS A PLACE HOLDER IN THE CASE THAT THE SUBSEQUENT RUNS             
GIVE ANOTHER STORY...BUT UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.                                
AS FOR AFTER THE FRONT...FORECAST AGAIN ABOUT TEMPERATURES AS HIGH              
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN AT THE SFC.  MID TO UPPER 60S BEHIND THE                
FRONT...AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/HJS                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
922 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.EVENING UPDATE...                                                              
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. THE END OF THE                 
LOW STRATUS IS BASICALLY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE CWA ATTM. DISTANCE              
AND SPEED TOOLS INDICATE THAT CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE              
OHIO RIVER AROUND 05Z...FROM BWG TO LEX AROUND 08Z...AND THE REST               
OF THE CWA BY 12Z. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...AS WELL AS                   
NAM/GFS/RUC MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH FIELDS. THE 850MB RH HAS LINED UP                
REALLY WELL WITH THE STRATUS DECK...SO AM FOLLOWING THIS TO                     
DETERMINE CLEARING TIME. THUS...WILL NOT KEEP CLOUDY WORDING                    
OVERNIGHT AND WILL HAVE CLEARING WORDING...ESPECIALLY NW AFTER                  
MIDNIGHT.                                                                       
HAVE TAKEN OUT DRIZZLE WORDING ACROSS THE NWRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE                
CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE DRIZZLE EAST OF A FRANKFORT TO                          
TOMPKINSVILLE LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT EDT AS RUC 850-700MB OMEGA                  
SHOWING LIFT. LOWER DEWPOINTS AND CONTINUED BREEZY NNE WINDS WILL               
LIKELY PRECLUDE FOG FROM FORMING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE HIGHER WIND                
WORDING IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS NEARING 20                 
MPH THROUGH NOON FRIDAY.                                                        
HOURLY TEMPS WERE RUNNING A BIT COOLER IN THE SOUTH...SO DROPPED                
OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOUTHERN KY. ALSO LOWERED                     
DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION.                                                       
UPDATE OUT MOMENTARILY.                                                         
AL                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)...                                
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...SUNNY AND MID/UPPER 80S YESTERDAY...            
AND NOW TODAY MORE THAN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WITNESSED                 
FALLING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S...AND DRIZZLE. HERE IS AN ODD                  
LITTLE FACT...MANY HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WERE AT MIDNIGHT...SO THE            
DAY WILL GO IN THE BOOKS AS NORMAL OR HIGHER MOST LIKELY AT ALL FOUR            
CLIMO SITES...THOUGH I BET MANY WOULD BEG TO DIFFER THERE. SHOWER               
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE HAS MOVED INTO             
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING FOR THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO DRAW IN COOLER AIR             
ACROSS THE LEXINGTON AREA AND SOUTH AS OF 3PM WITH TEMPS DROPPING AS            
MUCH AS 11 DEGREES IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.. SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE               
REGION HELPING TO PRODUCE THE LIFT AND DRIZZLE THAT HAS BEEN FOUND              
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. LARGE DEWPOINT SPREAD AS WELL...WITH LOWER 60S                   
REMAINING FROM LEX TO FTK...MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH...AND DRIER AIR            
TO THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL IN/SOUTHERN OHIO. STRONG               
INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1K OR              
LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                          
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE RUC TO START THE FORECAST FOR THE                    
PERIOD...CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BASICALLY EAST              
OF FRANKFORT TO BOWLING GREEN. WITH THE SHRTWV EXITING THE AREA LATE            
THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP DRIZZLE THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. EVEN WITH              
CAA ADVECTION TEMPS WILL DROP SLOWLY TONIGHT...COOLER IN THE HNB                
AREA WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO               
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS BLEND ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE CLOUDS. THE 925 RH                
REMAINS ABOVE 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 06Z...I                 
THINK THAT CLEARING AFTER THAT WOULD BE SLOWER THAN THE MODELS SHOW             
WITH NE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND STRONG INVERSION                
TRAPPING THE MOISTURE. TYPICALLY WITH NE FLOW THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS               
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE DURING THE                 
FOLLOWING DAY THAT WILL LOWER THE COVERAGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL GO              
THIS WAY IN THE FORECAST...AND ERODE THE STRATUS DURING THE                     
MORNING...SOME CU/SC WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...MORE SO IN THE               
EAST TOWARDS THE HIGHER RH. TO HELP WITH THE TRANSPORT OF DRIER AIR             
WILL BE THE LARGE SFC HI THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
TONIGHT...TO SE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL                
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUOUS NE FLOW              
AT THE SFC...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER END            
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER 60S IN THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION/ NE ZONES...TO MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE BWG AREA.             
SCHOTT                                                                          
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
QUITE A CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS AGREE              
AS WEEKEND ARRIVES IN TAKING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH ALONG THE                 
ATLANTIC COAST. TO THE WEST...OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE                 
VALLEYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARCS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES. WITH SURFACE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTHEAST...THIS SHOULD ALLOW              
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF             
THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW              
ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEYOND WILL BE              
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLEAR SKIES.                                                
TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN QUITE COOL WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.              
AFTER THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC                
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGE. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES                
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING NOT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS.            
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS...GIVING TWO MORE DRY DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES            
COOLING A FEW DEGREES.                                                          
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WILL BRING            
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ABOUT WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL            
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE               
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS WITH ITS INCREDIBLY            
DEEP SYSTEM VERIFIES...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD BE VERY                        
DOUBTFUL...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED TO GET MUCH INTO               
THE 50S. THE PROGRESS OF THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR                      
CONTINUITY OF NEXT RUNS OF THE COMPUTER MODELS.                                 
REITMEYER                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
315 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)...                               
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES...SUNNY AND MID/UPPER 80S YESTERDAY...            
AND NOW TODAY MORE THAN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS WITNESSED                 
FALLING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S...AND DRIZZLE. HERE IS AN ODD                  
LITTLE FACT...MANY HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION WERE AT MIDNIGHT...SO THE            
DAY WILL GO IN THE BOOKS AS NORMAL OR HIGHER MOST LIKELY AT ALL FOUR            
CLIMO SITES...THOUGH I BET MANY WOULD BEG TO DIFFER THERE. SHOWER               
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE HAS MOVED INTO             
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING FOR THE NORTHERLY WINDS TO DRAW IN COOLER AIR             
ACROSS THE LEXINGTON AREA AND SOUTH AS OF 3PM WITH TEMPS DROPPING AS            
MUCH AS 11 DEGREES IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.. SHRTWV MOVING ACROSS THE               
REGION HELPING TO PRODUCE THE LIFT AND DRIZZLE THAT HAS BEEN FOUND              
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE             
FORECAST AREA. LARGE DEWPOINT SPREAD AS WELL...WITH LOWER 60S                   
REMAINING FROM LEX TO FTK...MUCH HIGHER TO THE SOUTH...AND DRIER AIR            
TO THE NORTH WITH LOW 50S ACROSS CENTRAL IN/SOUTHERN OHIO. STRONG               
INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CEILINGS NEAR 1K OR              
LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                          
HAVE LEANED HEAVILY ON THE RUC TO START THE FORECAST FOR THE                    
PERIOD...CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY             
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BASICALLY EAST              
OF FRANKFORT TO BOWLING GREEN. WITH THE SHRTWV EXITING THE AREA LATE            
THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP DRIZZLE THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. EVEN WITH              
CAA ADVECTION TEMPS WILL DROP SLOWLY TONIGHT...COOLER IN THE HNB                
AREA WHERE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT...WILL GO               
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS BLEND ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE CLOUDS. THE 925 RH                
REMAINS ABOVE 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 06Z...I                 
THINK THAT CLEARING AFTER THAT WOULD BE SLOWER THAN THE MODELS SHOW             
WITH NE FLOW FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...AND STRONG INVERSION                
TRAPPING THE MOISTURE. TYPICALLY WITH NE FLOW THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS               
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE DURING THE                 
FOLLOWING DAY THAT WILL LOWER THE COVERAGE OF THE STRATUS. WILL GO              
THIS WAY IN THE FORECAST...AND ERODE THE STRATUS DURING THE                     
MORNING...SOME CU/SC WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...MORE SO IN THE               
EAST TOWARDS THE HIGHER RH. TO HELP WITH THE TRANSPORT OF DRIER AIR             
WILL BE THE LARGE SFC HI THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES            
TONIGHT...TO SE ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL                
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUOUS NE FLOW              
AT THE SFC...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE LOWER END            
OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LOWER 60S IN THE                   
BLUEGRASS REGION/ NE ZONES...TO MID TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE BWG AREA.             
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
QUITE A CHANGEABLE PATTERN OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS AGREE              
AS WEEKEND ARRIVES IN TAKING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH ALONG THE                 
ATLANTIC COAST. TO THE WEST...OVER THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE                 
VALLEYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARCS NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT               
LAKES. WITH SURFACE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTHEAST...THIS SHOULD ALLOW              
FOR CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF             
THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AND ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW              
ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BEYOND WILL BE              
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CLEAR SKIES.                                                
TEMPERATURES THAT BEGIN QUITE COOL WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.              
AFTER THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVES MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC                
BEGIN BREAKING DOWN THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGE. NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES                
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...CREATING NOT MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS.            
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS...GIVING TWO MORE DRY DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES            
COOLING A FEW DEGREES.                                                          
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN CANADA WILL BRING            
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ABOUT WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL            
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE               
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS WITH ITS INCREDIBLY            
DEEP SYSTEM VERIFIES...WHICH AT THIS POINT WOULD BE VERY                        
DOUBTFUL...HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE CHALLENGED TO GET MUCH INTO               
THE 50S. THE PROGRESS OF THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR                      
CONTINUITY OF NEXT RUNS OF THE COMPUTER MODELS.  -REITMEYER                     
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
1120 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                      
.LATE MORNING UPDATE...                                                         
WAVE CENTERED NEAR HODGENVILLE...WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHED SOUTHWEST            
TO FRANKLIN...AND WARM FRONT ALIGNED NEAR LEX TO THE EAST. ALL WILL             
CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY EAST SOUTH EAST...EXITING THE AREA AROUND               
130 PM EDT/1230 CDT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL            
BE LIKELY RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THAT TIME                 
FRAME. WEAK SHRT WAVE MOVING THRU THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN              
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS              
THE AREA WITHIN THE STRATUS DECK. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...IFR                 
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MAY LIFT SOME            
TO NEAR IFR CEILINGS 1K-1.5K FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE              
MORE NOTICEABLE AS SFC WAVE MOVES EAST AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT             
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...10 TO 15 KT WOULD BE COMMON AS            
THE COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. TEMPS            
CONTINUE TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND SHOULD SHOW NO UPWARDS                  
MOVEMENT ONCE IT PASSES AND STRATUS MOVES IN.                                   
--SCHOTT                                                                        
MORNING UPDATE...ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT THU OCT 5                                 
COLD FRONT STILL SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHING            
FROM NEAR LEXINGTON...SOUTHWEST ACROSS TO MORGANTOWN. A LINE OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS            
OF THE FRONT IN THE CWA...SCTD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS.            
A FEW STORMS ARE MODESTLY STRONG AND MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...AND               
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CEASE BY THE NOON              
HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...MAINLY AROUND LAKE CUMBERLAND              
AND DALE HOLLOW LAKES...AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA.              
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RUC STILL               
GENERATING QPF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES              
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ADJUST TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...WITH THE             
RUC SHOWING FALLING TEMPS EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL AREA SOUTH            
OF THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING THERE AS WELL AFTER 18Z. CURRENT HOURLY            
GRIDS SHOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO THIS...SO JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES AS              
NEEDED.                                                                         
LOW STRATUS...WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...CEILINGS NEAR            
OR LESS THAN 1000 FT...IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINE            
OF STRATUS LIES APPROX FROM CYNTHIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO HAWESVILLE.              
SCHOTT                                                                          
DISCUSSION PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                   
SFC FRONT...AUGMENTED BY AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON                 
RADAR...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM. A WEAKENING             
SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR SDF HAS BEEN AIDING            
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE LMK CWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...             
BUT TO THE WEST PCPN HAS BEEN MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.             
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS BEST PCPN CHANCES THROUGH               
DAYBREAK FROM OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES NE INTO OH/WV AND THIS SEEMS               
REASONABLE BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE IN CWA...WITH                
FRONT IN THE VICINITY...FEEL IT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC                
POPS THROUGH 12Z.                                                               
AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BAND OF BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW.               
THIS IS SEEN IN LATEST 11-3.9 IR SAT PIX AND 0Z NAM LOW LEVEL RH                
FIELDS. MOST CIGS UPSTREAM ARE MVFR...BUT A COUPLE OB SITES ARE NOW             
SHOWING IFR CIGS BELOW 1KFT...SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT. SREF IS              
INDICATING SOME SCT SHRA POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL CLOUD                
COVER TODAY...LIKELY ASSOC WITH MODEST FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT BETWEEN              
850-700MB. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA TODAY...HIGHEST IN THE               
E/SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE 850-800MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS FCST.            
NAM IS INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE LI'S DEVELOPING BY MID AFTN OVER SE             
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY WILL MENTION THUNDER IN            
THESE ZONES.                                                                    
FOR TONIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT               
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NAM                     
INDICATES THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM N TO S UNDER A              
20-30KT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOCATIONS IN SRN KY MAY END UP REMAINING             
BKN-OVC MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME SPOTS OF            
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TONIGHT GIVEN FCST THICKNESS OF LOW CLOUDS.                   
REGARDING TEMPS...TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE FRONT IN THE               
AREA. IN THESE SITUATIONS I TYPICALLY FOLLOW THE RAW MODEL TEMPS                
RATHER THAN THE MOS GIVEN THE RAPIDLY CHANGING AIRMASS. SO WITH THIS            
REASONING...WE COULD SEE QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY FROM NW             
TO SE ACROSS THE CWA...FALLING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE              
SRN IND/LOU/LEX ZONES...WITH READINGS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR              
BWG/SRN KY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF OUR SE                  
COUNTIES...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS...MAY REACH NEAR 80. FOR                   
TONIGHT UNDER COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE 40S            
IN MOST LOCATIONS.                                                              
CS                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)...                                                
00 UTC MODELS CONT PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRENDS OF TRANSITIONING FM A               
RATHER ZONAL WNW FLOW REGIME IN SHORT TERM INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
FLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD AND FORMS LARGE CUT OFF LOW            
OVER/NEAR CAROLINAS. THIS BUILDS UPR RIDGE TO ITS WEST OVER MS VLY              
WHICH ALLOWS STG SFC HI PRES TO BUILD IN AND BECOME ANCHORED ACRS               
GRT LAKES AND OH VLY THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...TEMPS INITIALLY             
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FRI WITH HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT WARM               
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO UPR 60S AND LWR 70S SAT...AND MID TO UPR 70S              
SUN. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT MRNG...LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AT            
OR BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS TO AROUND/NEAR 40 MANY AREAS WITH UPR 30S               
PSBL IN COOLER VALLEYS. DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU WEEKEND.                       
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACRS NRN TIER OF U.S. IS PROGGED             
TO SWEEP EWD AND FLATTEN UPR RIDGE. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A WEAK COLD               
FRONT ACRS GRT LAKES AND OH VLY LATE MON OR MON NGT. HWVR...FRONT               
SHOULD COME THRU DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL BE            
COOLER THAN ON SUN...BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO.                                    
LATEST GFS GEM AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COOL            
DOWN OVER NRN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES INTO OH VLY BY MID TO              
LATE NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE...DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN ARE YET TO BE               
DETERMINED ALONG WITH TIMING OF WHEN COLDER AIR AND CHCS OF SHOWERS             
WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE NEXT THU COULD BE TRANSITION DAY.             
MORE ON THIS AS TIME GROWS CLOSER.  --TWF                                       
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY                                          
815 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.MORNING UPDATE...                                                              
COLD FRONT STILL SLOWLY PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA STRETCHING            
FROM NEAR LEXINGTON...SOUTHWEST ACROSS TO MORGANTOWN. A LINE OF                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS            
OF THE FRONT IN THE CWA...SCTD ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS.            
A FEW STORMS ARE MODESTLY STRONG AND MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...AND               
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CEASE BY THE NOON              
HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...MAINLY AROUND LAKE CUMBERLAND              
AND DALE HOLLOW LAKES...AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA.              
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RUC STILL               
GENERATING QPF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A UPPER LEVEL SHRTWV MOVES              
ACROSS THE REGION...WILL ADJUST TEMPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS...WITH THE             
RUC SHOWING FALLING TEMPS EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE SMALL AREA SOUTH            
OF THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING THERE AS WELL AFTER 18Z. CURRENT HOURLY            
GRIDS SHOW SOMETHING CLOSE TO THIS...SO JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES AS              
NEEDED.                                                                         
LOW STRATUS...WORKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...CEILINGS NEAR            
OR LESS THAN 1000 FT...IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF              
THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LINE            
OF STRATUS LIES APPROX FROM CYNTHIANA TO LOUISVILLE TO HAWESVILLE.              
SCHOTT                                                                          
DISCUSSION PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT                                      
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...                                                   
SFC FRONT...AUGMENTED BY AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN ON                 
RADAR...DROPPING SOUTHWARD TROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ATTM. A WEAKENING             
SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR SDF HAS BEEN AIDING            
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NE OF THE LMK CWA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...             
BUT TO THE WEST PCPN HAS BEEN MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE.             
LATEST SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS BEST PCPN CHANCES THROUGH               
DAYBREAK FROM OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES NE INTO OH/WV AND THIS SEEMS               
REASONABLE BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. ELSEWHERE IN CWA...WITH                
FRONT IN THE VICINITY...FEEL IT PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHC                
POPS THROUGH 12Z.                                                               
AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BAND OF BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW.               
THIS IS SEEN IN LATEST 11-3.9 IR SAT PIX AND 0Z NAM LOW LEVEL RH                
FIELDS. MOST CIGS UPSTREAM ARE MVFR...BUT A COUPLE OB SITES ARE NOW             
SHOWING IFR CIGS BELOW 1KFT...SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH THAT. SREF IS              
INDICATING SOME SCT SHRA POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS POST-FRONTAL CLOUD                
COVER TODAY...LIKELY ASSOC WITH MODEST FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT BETWEEN              
850-700MB. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR SHRA TODAY...HIGHEST IN THE               
E/SE SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE 850-800MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS IS FCST.            
NAM IS INDICATING SOME NEGATIVE LI'S DEVELOPING BY MID AFTN OVER SE             
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY WILL MENTION THUNDER IN            
THESE ZONES.                                                                    
FOR TONIGHT...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AT               
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...NAM                     
INDICATES THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP FROM N TO S UNDER A              
20-30KT NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. LOCATIONS IN SRN KY MAY END UP REMAINING             
BKN-OVC MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME SPOTS OF            
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TONIGHT GIVEN FCST THICKNESS OF LOW CLOUDS.                   
REGARDING TEMPS...TODAY WILL BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE FRONT IN THE               
AREA. IN THESE SITUATIONS I TYPICALLY FOLLOW THE RAW MODEL TEMPS                
RATHER THAN THE MOS GIVEN THE RAPIDLY CHANGING AIRMASS. SO WITH THIS            
REASONING...WE COULD SEE QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY FROM NW             
TO SE ACROSS THE CWA...FALLING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE              
SRN IND/LOU/LEX ZONES...WITH READINGS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S FOR              
BWG/SRN KY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF OUR SE                  
COUNTIES...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE OCCURS...MAY REACH NEAR 80. FOR                   
TONIGHT UNDER COLD ADVECTION...SHOULD SEE READINGS DROP INTO THE 40S            
IN MOST LOCATIONS.                                                              
CS                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)...                                                
00 UTC MODELS CONT PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC TRENDS OF TRANSITIONING FM A               
RATHER ZONAL WNW FLOW REGIME IN SHORT TERM INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED              
FLOW THIS WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD AND FORMS LARGE CUT OFF LOW            
OVER/NEAR CAROLINAS. THIS BUILDS UPR RIDGE TO ITS WEST OVER MS VLY              
WHICH ALLOWS STG SFC HI PRES TO BUILD IN AND BECOME ANCHORED ACRS               
GRT LAKES AND OH VLY THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...TEMPS INITIALLY             
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FRI WITH HIGHS IN LOW TO MID 60S BUT WARM               
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO UPR 60S AND LWR 70S SAT...AND MID TO UPR 70S              
SUN. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SAT MRNG...LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AT            
OR BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS TO AROUND/NEAR 40 MANY AREAS WITH UPR 30S               
PSBL IN COOLER VALLEYS. DRY WX WILL PREVAIL THRU WEEKEND.                       
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACRS NRN TIER OF U.S. IS PROGGED             
TO SWEEP EWD AND FLATTEN UPR RIDGE. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A WEAK COLD               
FRONT ACRS GRT LAKES AND OH VLY LATE MON OR MON NGT. HWVR...FRONT               
SHOULD COME THRU DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. TEMPS WL BE            
COOLER THAN ON SUN...BUT NOT DRASTICALLY SO.                                    
LATEST GFS GEM AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COOL            
DOWN OVER NRN TIER OF STATES AND GREAT LAKES INTO OH VLY BY MID TO              
LATE NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE...DETAILS OF THIS PATTERN ARE YET TO BE               
DETERMINED ALONG WITH TIMING OF WHEN COLDER AIR AND CHCS OF SHOWERS             
WOULD OCCUR. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE NEXT THU COULD BE TRANSITION DAY.             
MORE ON THIS AS TIME GROWS CLOSER.  --TWF                                       
&&                                                                              
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
915 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
TRANQUIL EVENING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS FCST AREA. SPRAWLING AREA OF SFC            
HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER NE LWR MI WITH UPPER MI STILL WITHIN THE             
BAGGY PRES GRADIENT NEAR HIGH CENTER. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE                  
DROPPED OFF TO CALM THIS EVENING AS RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS SET UP              
SFC BASED INVERSION. LAND BREEZES ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR LAKE            
SUPERIOR. OVERNIGHT...THESE LAND BREEZES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY               
AIDED BY THE INITIAL WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRES CENTERED             
TO THE E. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND) SHOULD               
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT AS ESTABLISHED SFC BASED INVERSION WILL                 
LIMIT OR PREVENT MIXING TO THE SFC DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN RETURN              
FLOW ABOVE INVERSION AS HIGH DRIFTS E. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FCST TO             
REFLECT THIS THINKING BY DROPPING LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES FROM               
PREV FCST IN MANY LOCATIONS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RDG FROM THE            
SRN PLAINS TO SASK/MANITOBA WITH NW FLOW THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND THE            
UPPER GRT LAKES. A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI AND LK SUPERIOR               
HAS PRODUCED LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN                
CWA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED FROM NE MN              
INTO W UPR MI. A SHRTWV OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE INTO BC AND               
EVENTUALLY THROUGH SRN CANADA HELPING TO STRENGTHEN AN SIGNIFICANT SFC          
LOW BY SAT/SUN FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN ONTARIO.                              
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRI)                                                  
TONIGHT...MID LVL AND SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL            
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO READINGS FROM AROUND             
30 INLAND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE LAKES. HOWEVER..THE SFC HIGH WILL                
SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR SSW BNDRY LYR WINDS AOA 15 KT TO               
DEVELOP OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF            
AS MUCH.                                                                        
FRI...INCREASING SRLY LOW LVL WINDS AND DECENT MIXING AOA 900 MB                
(TEMPS NEAR 9C) WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS AOA                
GUIDANCE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.                                             
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                    
WARMEST AIR AT H85 SURGES NORTHEAST INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND             
FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF UPR GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT. TIGHEST H85                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MN. ISENTROPIC LIFT               
NEAR 300K (850-750MB) A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON GFS THAN NAM BUT EVEN            
MAJORITY OF LIFT ON GFS IS OVR NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS                
ACROSS KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TRIMMED POPS BACK OVR FAR WEST CWA.                  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL OVERTAKE UPR LAKES AND SET THE TONE FOR A               
BREEZY WEEKEND. NAM OUTPUT WAS FOLLOWED FOR WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.            
BOTH PERIODS BLYR WINDS 30-35KT WERE PROGGED ON LK SUPERIOR AND IN              
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MI. SETUP SEEMS GOOD FOR STRONG                 
WINDS INTO SHORELINE AREAS OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS            
COOLER AIR OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DRAINS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR BUT IS              
COMPRESSIONALLY WARMED AS IT DECENDS. RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE              
THE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND ALLOWING FOR STRONGER MIXING.                    
EXTENT OF MIXING/MAX TEMPS ARE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR SAT. BOTH NAM AND             
GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 925MB TO MAYBE 900MB FOR MIXING HEIGHT WHICH             
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO UPR 60S TO MID 70S. DEEP DRY LAYER EXPECTED             
WHICH MAY HELP MIX HIGHER. FOR NOW...LEFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE               
70S ALONE...AND WILL SEE HOW TEMPS UNFOLD FRI AFTN IN PLAINS. GOINT             
DEWPOINTS LOWERING WELL INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTN LOOKS FINE                 
BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS. RESULTING RH VALUES FALL BLO 30 PCT.                   
THUS...MAY HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SAT. AFTER COORD WITH             
MI DNR DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINES RIGHT NOW.                                 
ON SUN...SOME WEAK 2D-FRONTOGENESIS AND POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
MAY COMBINE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF OF             
THE CWA IN AFTN. HOWEVER...IT IS SEEMING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING               
TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE                  
NORMAL TEMPS. SIMILAR H9 TEMPS TO SAT MAY SUPPORT MORE MAX TEMPS                
INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LWR 70S. AFTN DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX INTO               
THE LWR-MID 40S YIELDING RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. THESE LOW RH                  
VALUES AND RECENT DRY SPELL ALONG WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT LATE DAY              
MAY LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS AGAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME FOCUS BY LATE             
SUN AS WEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE STRONG INTO SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. 12Z GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH WIND SHIFT THAN NAM BUT IN                 
GENERAL BY 00Z MON BLYR WINDS INCREASE TO 35KT OVR LK SUPERIOR AND              
TO 20-30 KT OVR LAND SUN EVENING. KEWEENAW PENINSULA LOOKS IN LINE              
FOR AN ADVISORY EVENT WITH PREFERRED WEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE A              
GALE IS PRETTY CERTAIN ON LK SUPERIOR. WILL MENTION BOTH IN HWOMQT.             
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN COOL AIR TO UPR LAKES MON INTO MON             
NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO. PREVAILING WIND                 
DIRECTION WILL BE NW SO ANY LK EFFECT WOULD OCCUR OVR E HALF OF LK              
SUPERIOR INTO FAR NE ZONES. INCREASED CLOUDS SOME IN THESE AREAS                
INTO MON NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT PCPN EVEN            
WITH FAVORABLE OVER WATER INSTABILITY (LAKE-H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES ARE            
ABOVE +13C). QUIET FOR TUE AS BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS OVR REGION.                  
AT THE LEAST...WED-THU PERIODS AND LATER PERIODS LOOK MUCH COOLER AND           
UNSETTLED IN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES.               
RIDGE OVR CNTRL CONUS INTO EASTERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO GIVE WAY TO             
LARGE SCALE TROFFING FM CNTRL CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES.  00Z                     
GFS/ECMWF/DGEX/CANADIAN INDICATE CENTER OF TROF SETTLING OVR ONTARIO            
WITH SFC LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LATE WED INTO THU.               
THIS SOLN RESULTS IN WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY USHERING CHILLY                   
AIRMASS INTO GREAT LAKES ON THU. 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNS ARE                       
CONSISTENTLY COLD WITH H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -10C INTO UPR MIDWEST             
AND GREAT LAKES BY 00Z FRI. 12Z ECMWF ALSO INDICATING SUB -10C H85              
TEMPS INTO UPR LAKES LATE THU. SEEMS QUITE FEASIBLE NOW THAT LATER              
THU INTO FRI IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT WE MAY SEE FIRST SNOW OF             
THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPR MI.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
JLB (SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM)                                                       
JLA (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
749 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD DRYING IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS                  
PENETRATING SOUTHEAST MI BEHIND WELL DEFINED...BUT MOISTURE                     
LIMITED...SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.                  
ACCORDINGLY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT OF ALL BUT THE               
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...REVEALING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BUT OPEN                   
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. THESE STRATOCUMULUS...5K TO 6K FEET...APPEAR               
TO BE LARGELY DIURNALLY RELATED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT                
FEW HOURS. LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL QVECTOR AND OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE              
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME IS VERY WEAK               
IN DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FRIDAY.                                  
LATEST MODEL RUN TIME SECTIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FAIL                
TO GIVE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ADVECTING AND/OR                  
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NOT TO                 
THE EXTENT THEY DID THURSDAY MORNING. STILL...MODELS SUCH AS                    
RUC...NAM12 AND GFS DO HINT AT A BIT OF INCREASE IN 950 TO 925 MB               
MOISTURE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON INTO MAINLY              
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TAFS REFLECT                
VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z THROUGH 12Z AT                 
KFNT FOR POSSIBLE CEILINGS NEAR 3K FEET. THERMAL TROUGH STILL                   
HANGING AROUND OVERHEAD TONIGHT TO PROMOTE DELTA TS OVER LAKE                   
HURON WELL INTO THE TEENS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                 
LAKE STRATUS COMBINING WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND               
THE PEAK HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN DECK NORTH OF M59 TODAY.               
IN FACT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA RADAR IN               
SAGINAW BAY INTO ADJACENT HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES SHORELINES.                
SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ARE OBSERVED IN THE 1KM IMAGERY AS A                  
NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY SOUTH OF            
8-MILE ROAD DOWN TO THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.  HERE TOO SOME CLOUDS              
WILL FILL IN AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION            
THIS EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BUT THEN THE                 
COMPLICATED LAKE STRATUS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                        
ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM AND RUC2-13KM SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE             
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT BAX-JXN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS                 
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS               
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR REVEAL CLOUDS DECREASING DUE TO THE INCREASED                 
SUBSIDENCE.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT AS              
TROUGH AMPLIFIES JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  SO AT THE MINIMUM                      
CLR-PTCLOUDY SKIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB-FNT-OZW WITH MOCLEAR               
SKIES ELSEWHERE.  WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S AND                
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...COMBINE THAT WITH                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE                                 
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DIPPING DOWN INTO               
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND            
DOWNTOWN DTW (EVEN IF CLOUDS DEVELOP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS).                
THEREFORE FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE              
CWA.                                                                            
A NICE END TO THE WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING AT ALL LEVELS AND A DRY              
COLUMN TO BRING SUNSHINE.  WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A 2-3 DEGREE RISE             
AT 850MB...SHOULD RESULT INTO A NICE DIURNAL RISE OF 25-30 DEGREES              
INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE HURON.                          
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY                                  
ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY START TO THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY                 
AFTER A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WIND AND CONTINUED IDEAL                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATED SOME THIN              
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE              
AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AID IN ELEVATING                        
TEMPERATURES. THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR AREAS OF FROST IN MOST               
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND CITY OF DETROIT AND THIS LOOKS                
GOOD WITH LOW TEMPS AS CHILLY AS 32F POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY                  
COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR THUMB AND CENTRAL LOWER.                       
THE WEEKEND WARMING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY DURING SATURDAY                
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW                   
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A                 
MODEST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER GENERALLY BELOW 900 MB. THIS IS ABOUT               
RIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION                    
PATTERN. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN THE POTENTIAL                 
INDICATED BY WARMING 850 MB TEMPS BUT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE                   
MACHINE NUMBERS WHEN FACTORING IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE             
AT LEAST IN THE MID 60S AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH 70 IN THE SAGINAW                 
VALLEY WITH STRONGER SW FLOW. THE SW FLOW WILL BE STRONGER BUT THE              
GRADIENT IN THE MODELS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A                  
STEADY WIND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. PLAN             
TO SHADE LOW TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION            
OF GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS                 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, PREFER THE COOLER MET/NAM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE             
WITH OFFERINGS DOWN NEAR 40.                                                    
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND SKY CONDITION, EXCEPT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A               
FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO EVEN STRONGER SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS              
WILL BE DUE TO A RESPECTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN                
CENTRAL CANADA, WHICH THE 12Z MODELS MAINTAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE AND            
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
MID 70S WILL BE REACHABLE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT               
WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY EVENING. TIMING ON THE PASSAGE OF             
THIS FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT                
WITH A LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY, SO MUCH SO THAT THE NORMALLY                    
GENEROUS GFS OFFERS ONLY A FEW 100THS INCH QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY. MORE CERTAIN THAN RAIN CHANCES IS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR              
THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE RANGE COMPARABLE TO EARLIER             
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE USUAL                
COMPLEMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCU ON MONDAY.                                      
CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT TIMING ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FRONTAL            
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE              
OVER SE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AS THE WHEELS TURN ON ANOTHER                       
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE. ADVERTISEMENT OF THIS BEGAN IN            
LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND CONTINUED TODAY. THE DRIVER OF THE                   
CHANGE WILL BE STRONG AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE                
CLOSED UPPER LOW DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. TRENDS               
IN THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOW AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT IS NOT AS              
DEEP/COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT WITH SIMILAR TIMING               
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. DETAILS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES                 
WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THE BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW BRINGS THE                
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
AND THURSDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ082...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
410 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RDG FROM THE            
SRN PLAINS TO SASK/MANITOBA WITH NW FLOW THROUGH WRN ONTARIO AND THE            
UPPER GRT LAKES. A SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH UPPER MI AND LK SUPERIOR               
HAS PRODUCED LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES OVER THE ERN                
CWA. OTHERWISE...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED FROM NE MN              
INTO W UPR MI. A SHRTWV OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL MOVE INTO BC AND               
EVENTUALLY THROUGH SRN CANADA HELPING TO STRENGTHEN AN SIGNIFICANT SFC          
LOW BY SAT/SUN FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO WRN ONTARIO.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRI)                                                 
TONIGHT...MID LVL AND SFC RDG BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES               
WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL            
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO READINGS FROM AROUND             
30 INLAND TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE LAKES. HOWEVER..THE SFC HIGH WILL                
SHIFT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR SSW BNDRY LYR WINDS AOA 15 KT TO               
DEVELOP OVER THE W THIRD OF THE CWA...KEEPING TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF            
AS MUCH.                                                                        
FRI...INCREASING SRLY LOW LVL WINDS AND DECENT MIXING AOA 900 MB                
(TEMPS NEAR 9C) WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT TEMPS AOA                
GUIDANCE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                   
WARMEST AIR AT H85 SURGES NORTHEAST INTO UPR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND             
FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF UPR GREAT LAKES FRI NIGHT. TIGHEST H85                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MN. ISENTROPIC LIFT               
NEAR 300K (850-750MB) A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON GFS THAN NAM BUT EVEN            
MAJORITY OF LIFT ON GFS IS OVR NORTHWEST LK SUPERIOR AND PERHAPS                
ACROSS KEWEENAW PENINSULA. TRIMMED POPS BACK OVR FAR WEST CWA.                  
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL OVERTAKE UPR LAKES AND SET THE TONE FOR A               
BREEZY WEEKEND. NAM OUTPUT WAS FOLLOWED FOR WINDS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.            
BOTH PERIODS BLYR WINDS 30-35KT WERE PROGGED ON LK SUPERIOR AND IN              
DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NCNTRL UPR MI. SETUP SEEMS GOOD FOR STRONG                 
WINDS INTO SHORELINE AREAS OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES AS            
COOLER AIR OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN DRAINS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR BUT IS              
COMPRESSIONALLY WARMED AS IT DECENDS. RESULT SHOULD BE AN INCREASE              
THE LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATE AND ALLOWING FOR STRONGER MIXING.                    
EXTENT OF MIXING/MAX TEMPS ARE MAIN QUESTIONS FOR SAT. BOTH NAM AND             
GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE 925MB TO MAYBE 900MB FOR MIXING HEIGHT WHICH             
SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS INTO UPR 60S TO MID 70S. DEEP DRY LAYER EXPECTED             
WHICH MAY HELP MIX HIGHER. FOR NOW...LEFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE               
70S ALONE...AND WILL SEE HOW TEMPS UNFOLD FRI AFTN IN PLAINS. GOINT             
DEWPOINTS LOWERING WELL INTO THE 30S DURING THE AFTN LOOKS FINE                 
BASED ON MIXING HEIGHTS. RESULTING RH VALUES FALL BLO 30 PCT.                   
THUS...MAY HAVE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SAT. AFTER COORD WITH             
MI DNR DID NOT GO WITH ANY HEADLINES RIGHT NOW.                                 
ON SUN...SOME WEAK 2D-FRONTOGENESIS AND POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE            
MAY COMBINE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST HALF OF             
THE CWA IN AFTN. HOWEVER...IT IS SEEMING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING               
TOWARD A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE                  
NORMAL TEMPS. SIMILAR H9 TEMPS TO SAT MAY SUPPORT MORE MAX TEMPS                
INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY LWR 70S. AFTN DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX INTO               
THE LWR-MID 40S YIELDING RH VALUES AROUND 30 PCT. THESE LOW RH                  
VALUES AND RECENT DRY SPELL ALONG WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT LATE DAY              
MAY LEAD TO FIRE WX CONCERNS AGAIN. WINDS WILL BECOME FOCUS BY LATE             
SUN AS WEST WINDS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL BE STRONG INTO SUN NIGHT                
INTO MON. 12Z GFS A BIT QUICKER WITH WIND SHIFT THAN NAM BUT IN                 
GENERAL BY 00Z MON BLYR WINDS INCREASE TO 35KT OVR LK SUPERIOR AND              
TO 20-30 KT OVR LAND SUN EVENING. KEWEENAW PENINSULA LOOKS IN LINE              
FOR AN ADVISORY EVENT WITH PREFERRED WEST WIND DIRECTION...WHILE A              
GALE IS PRETTY CERTAIN ON LK SUPERIOR. WILL MENTION BOTH IN HWOMQT.             
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN COOL AIR TO UPR LAKES MON INTO MON             
NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO. PREVAILING WIND                 
DIRECTION WILL BE NW SO ANY LK EFFECT WOULD OCCUR OVR E HALF OF LK              
SUPERIOR INTO FAR NE ZONES. INCREASED CLOUDS SOME IN THESE AREAS                
INTO MON NIGHT...BUT SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT PCPN EVEN            
WITH FAVORABLE OVER WATER INSTABILITY (LAKE-H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES ARE            
ABOVE +13C). QUIET FOR TUE AS BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS OVR REGION.                  
AT THE LEAST...WED-THU PERIODS AND LATER PERIODS LOOK MUCH COOLER AND           
UNSETTLED IN LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES.               
RIDGE OVR CNTRL CONUS INTO EASTERN CANADA IS PROGGED TO GIVE WAY TO             
LARGE SCALE TROFFING FM CNTRL CANADA INTO GREAT LAKES.  00Z                     
GFS/ECMWF/DGEX/CANADIAN INDICATE CENTER OF TROF SETTLING OVR ONTARIO            
WITH SFC LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR LATE WED INTO THU.               
THIS SOLN RESULTS IN WESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY USHERING CHILLY                   
AIRMASS INTO GREAT LAKES ON THU. 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS RUNS ARE                       
CONSISTENTLY COLD WITH H85 TEMPS LOWERING BLO -10C INTO UPR MIDWEST             
AND GREAT LAKES BY 00Z FRI. 12Z ECMWF ALSO INDICATING SUB -10C H85              
TEMPS INTO UPR LAKES LATE THU. SEEMS QUITE FEASIBLE NOW THAT LATER              
THU INTO FRI IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT WE MAY SEE FIRST SNOW OF             
THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPR MI.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...JLB                                                       
LONG TERM...JLA                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
335 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                
LAKE STRATUS COMBINING WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND               
THE PEAK HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN DECK NORTH OF M59 TODAY.               
IN FACT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA RADAR IN               
SAGINAW BAY INTO ADJACENT HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES SHORELINES.                
SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ARE OBSERVED IN THE 1KM IMAGERY AS A                  
NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY SOUTH OF            
8-MILE ROAD DOWN TO THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.  HERE TOO SOME CLOUDS              
WILL FILL IN AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION            
THIS EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BUT THEN THE                 
COMPLICATED LAKE STRATUS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                        
ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM AND RUC2-13KM SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE             
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT BAX-JXN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS                 
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS               
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR REVEAL CLOUDS DECREASING DUE TO THE INCREASED                 
SUBSIDENCE.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT AS              
TROUGH AMPLIFIES JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  SO AT THE MINIMUM                      
CLR-PTCLOUDY SKIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB-FNT-OZW WITH MOCLEAR               
SKIES ELSEWHERE.  WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S AND                
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...COMBINE THAT WITH                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE                                 
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DIPPING DOWN INTO               
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND            
DOWNTOWN DTW (EVEN IF CLOUDS DEVELOP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS).                
THEREFORE FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE              
CWA.                                                                            
A NICE END TO THE WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING AT ALL LEVELS AND A DRY              
COLUMN TO BRING SUNSHINE.  WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A 2-3 DEGREE RISE             
AT 850MB...SHOULD RESULT INTO A NICE DIURNAL RISE OF 25-30 DEGREES              
INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE HURON.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY                                 
ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY START TO THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY                 
AFTER A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WIND AND CONTINUED IDEAL                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATED SOME THIN              
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE              
AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AID IN ELEVATING                        
TEMPERATURES. THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR AREAS OF FROST IN MOST               
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND CITY OF DETROIT AND THIS LOOKS                
GOOD WITH LOW TEMPS AS CHILLY AS 32F POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY                  
COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR THUMB AND CENTRAL LOWER.                       
THE WEEKEND WARMING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY DURING SATURDAY                
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW                   
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A                 
MODEST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER GENERALLY BELOW 900 MB. THIS IS ABOUT               
RIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION                    
PATTERN. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN THE POTENTIAL                 
INDICATED BY WARMING 850 MB TEMPS BUT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE                   
MACHINE NUMBERS WHEN FACTORING IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE             
AT LEAST IN THE MID 60S AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH 70 IN THE SAGINAW                 
VALLEY WITH STRONGER SW FLOW. THE SW FLOW WILL BE STRONGER BUT THE              
GRADIENT IN THE MODELS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A                  
STEADY WIND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. PLAN             
TO SHADE LOW TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION            
OF GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS                 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, PREFER THE COOLER MET/NAM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE             
WITH OFFERINGS DOWN NEAR 40.                                                    
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND SKY CONDITION, EXCEPT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A               
FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO EVEN STRONGER SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS              
WILL BE DUE TO A RESPECTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN                
CENTRAL CANADA, WHICH THE 12Z MODELS MAINTAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE AND            
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
MID 70S WILL BE REACHABLE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT               
WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY EVENING. TIMING ON THE PASSAGE OF             
THIS FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT                
WITH A LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY, SO MUCH SO THAT THE NORMALLY                    
GENEROUS GFS OFFERS ONLY A FEW 100THS INCH QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY. MORE CERTAIN THAN RAIN CHANCES IS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR              
THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE RANGE COMPARABLE TO EARLIER             
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE USUAL                
COMPLEMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCU ON MONDAY.                                      
CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT TIMING ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FRONTAL            
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE              
OVER SE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AS THE WHEELS TURN ON ANOTHER                       
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE. ADVERTISEMENT OF THIS BEGAN IN            
LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND CONTINUED TODAY. THE DRIVER OF THE                   
CHANGE WILL BE STRONG AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE                
CLOSED UPPER LOW DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. TRENDS               
IN THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOW AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT IS NOT AS              
DEEP/COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT WITH SIMILAR TIMING               
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. DETAILS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES                 
WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THE BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW BRINGS THE                
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
AND THURSDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 101 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON ALONG WITH THE            
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN LAKE STRATUS...MAINLY VFR WITH BORDERLINE                
MVFR CEILINGS.  AS THIS TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE                       
REGION...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH            
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE WHICH SHOULD                
CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING.  THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT                
WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY            
FNT.  LATEST WRF-NMM AND EXPERIMENTAL 2 RUC13 SUGGEST ONCE AGAIN                
THAT ANOTHER LAKE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM              
BAX-JXN.  SINCE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER BEHIND THIS                       
WAVE...ONLY A TEMPO GROUP IS NEED AND MONITOR TRENDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ082...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
101 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE HURON ALONG WITH THE            
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER                
VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN LAKE STRATUS...MAINLY VFR WITH BORDERLINE                
MVFR CEILINGS.  AS THIS TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE                       
REGION...EXPECT A LITTLE MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH            
THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE WHICH SHOULD                
CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING.  THE QUESTION OVERNIGHT                
WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD IMPACT MAINLY            
FNT.  LATEST WRF-NMM AND EXPERIMENTAL 2 RUC13 SUGGEST ONCE AGAIN                
THAT ANOTHER LAKE STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM              
BAX-JXN.  SINCE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER BEHIND THIS                       
WAVE...ONLY A TEMPO GROUP IS NEED AND MONITOR TRENDS.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1140 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                            
UPDATE...                                                                       
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON-TRACK WITH LAKE STRATUS IMPACTING                     
PORTIONS OF THE THUMB AND TRI CITIES AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE                    
STRIPPING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHORT WAVE WAS                      
PROGRESSING NICELY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PER                
THE WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE               
REMAINS QUITE DRY PER 12Z RAOBS FROM GRB/APX/DTX. THE ONLY                      
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WHERE LAKE STRATUS IS PREVALENT AND WITH              
THE APPROACH OF THIS WAVE...MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN                    
SHOWER TO DEVELOP. SO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS GOOD AT                 
THIS TIME.                                                                      
TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S                
FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPTION WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH WERE A COUPLE               
OF LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED WITH MORE INSOLATION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER                
850MB TEMPS.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SLOW TO OCCUR...THE FORMATION OF LAKE STRATUS              
SEEMS TO BE UNDERWAY IN COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. THUS...WILL RETAIN THE             
MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE THUMB/SAGINAW VALLEY TODAY. EVEN              
TO THE SOUTH OF THIS...EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS/STRATO-CU TO DEVELOP              
AND LEAD TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE              
MID TO UPPER 50S WHERE CLOUDS ARE MOST PREVALENT NORTH OF THE M 59              
CORRIDOR OR SO. A BIT MORE SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS WILL LEAD              
TO LOWER 60S IN SOME SPOTS.                                                     
WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT...BUT LEAVE ANY HEADLINE             
DECISIONS TO THE DAYSHIFT. REMAINING LAKE STRATUS...AND A SOMEWHAT              
STEADY FLOW OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS FROM THE WEST MAY IMPACT THE EXTENT            
OF FROST TO VARYING DEGREES...EVEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER             
THE AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FULL EXTENT OF LAKE CLOUDS WILL BE            
EVIDENT. WIDESPREAD 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOW HOLDING IN THE 40S              
ONLY NEAR THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS AND PERHAPS THE CORE OF               
THE METRO DETROIT HEAT ISLAND.                                                  
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                            
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMES                 
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND A BROAD            
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. A 1031MB SURFACE              
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING TO THE                 
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND            
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY OVER LOWER                
MICHIGAN WITH 1000-500MB RH OF 20-30%...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR              
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL               
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING.                    
GUIDANCE HIGHS APPEAR REASONABLE SHOWING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON            
SUNDAY WITH A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IN STORE FOR LOWER MICHIGAN.                
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE AREA WILL BE A RESULT OF ENERGY                 
EJECTING OUT OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...PHASING WITH A             
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. MODELS HAVE COME INTO            
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE                
LAST 24 HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES              
AND TRACK TOWARDS HUDSON BAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT AFFECTING             
LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ALONG THE                 
FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF STATES RESTRICTING MOISTURE              
TRANSPORT NORTH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S            
AND SHOWALTERS ONLY DROP TO 5C. THE STRONGER FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE            
FOCUSED FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO EXTREME NORTHERN LOWER...CLOSER TO            
THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL PUSH. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND                       
INSTABILITY...HAVE DROPPED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST            
LEAVING JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP                  
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S THUMB TO LOW 60S                      
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MID WEEK.                                                     
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR              
LATE NEXT WEEK. IF MODELS VERIFY...A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN IS                 
FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH WILL ALLOW A                   
POLAR VORTEX AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO TRACK FROM THE                
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS HAS BEEN                    
LACKING CONSISTENCY AND THE 00Z/05 RUN SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS BELOW                
THE RECORD LOW VALUES IN OUR 30 YEAR UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY                      
DATABASE. TOO SOON TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF                  
THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR                        
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421-LHZ441 UNTIL 2 PM                    
THURSDAY.                                                                       
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ422 UNTIL 1 PM THURSDAY.                         
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ442-LHZ443 UNTIL 3 PM THURSDAY.                  
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LCZ423-LCZ460 UNTIL 1 PM                 
THURSDAY.                                                                       
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LEZ444 UNTIL 1 PM               
THURSDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BGM                                                                
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....KAHL                                                               
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV                                           
1015 AM PDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY               
NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY. THE LOW WILL THEN SWING                
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT LATE TONIGHT AND              
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED               
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA TODAY AND WILL BECOME                
MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW NORMAL                  
READINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...RECENT TRENDS FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE             
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA EXPANDING AND SHIFTING             
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE 12Z NAM INDICATES A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE                
MOISTURE BOUNDARY WHICH THE 12Z GFS KEEPS IT FAIRLY STATIONARY. IN              
EITHER CASE...THE FORECAST NEEDED TO BE UPDATED ACROSS SOUTHERN                 
NEVADA FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. IT APPEARS AREAS FROM                 
I-15 EASTWARD WILL BE FAVORED. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE            
TRENDS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM PDT THU OCT 5 2006...                                 
.SHORT TERM...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OCCURRING           
ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN                     
COUNTIES. THE LATEST RAPID UPDATE CYCLE (RUC) DOES PICK INDICATE A              
WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE RUC                 
QUICKLY SHIFTS THE FEATURE NORTHEAST INTO LINCOLN COUNTY OVER THE               
NEXT THREE HOURS WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF ACROSS CLARK/EASTERN SAN             
BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE                
PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY                
KEEPING THE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY. THE EASTERN HALF THE AREA WILL            
STAY UNDER A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ANY MINOR DISTURBANCES                   
KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM            
THE COLORADO RIVER EAST. WITH THE SLOWER TIMING THE TROUGH IS STILL             
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE              
EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG              
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ACCENT                
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BEST            
FOCUS STILL OVER FAR EASTERN CLARK....MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON            
FRIDAY. MODEL QPF HIGHER TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN MOHAVE/LINCOLN                   
COUNTIES WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING UPWARDS OF 1.0 TO 1.25               
INCHES OF RAIN. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY APPROVE FRIDAY EVENING AS             
SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST THROUGH UTAH. HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH WILL            
REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AS              
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS DOWN BACKSIDE. WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT            
OF MAIN LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH             
TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH THE COOLING HAPPENING FRIDAY             
AND SATURDAY.                                                                   
.LONG TERM...FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE IMPROVING               
MODEL TREND MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT CONTINUES HELPING TO                
GIVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE PACKAGE TONIGHT. ALL MEMBERS                
START OUT SUNDAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW JUST OF THE                
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN OMEGA BLOCK AXIS STRETCHING FROM               
TEXAS INTO MICHIGAN. FROM THAT POINT...THE SOLUTIONS SLOWLY START TO            
SLOWLY DIVERGE. GFS/EUROPEAN SLIGHTLY RETROGRADE THE LOW WHILE THE              
DGEX IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS IT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY                  
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE HISTORICALLY DONE A POOR JOB WITH CUT-OFF LOWS              
OFF THE COAST SO VERY DIFFICULT TO PICK WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE                  
LIKELY. FOR NOW TENDED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE                     
EUROPEAN/GFS WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE ENTERING THE CWA            
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL OBVIOUSLY            
DICTATE MORE LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR ANY PRECIPITATION SO WENT WITH A              
SLIGHT CHANCE IN MANY AREAS AND A CHANCE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON                
MONDAY. LIFTED VALUES PROGGED TO BE AS LOW AS MINUS 2 SO POTENTIAL              
IS THERE FOR SOME GOOD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. TUESDAY GIVES             
SIMILAR LIFTED VALUES BUT MADE THE CHANCES SLIGHTLY LESS DUE TO                 
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECASTED TRACK.  KEPT A MENTION OF SHOWERS               
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS GFS STILL HAS THE LOW OVER                  
CALIFORNIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE            
A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO TRENDED THEM BELOW SUGGESTED GUIDANCE AND                 
CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE AVERAGE. NIGHT TIME LOWS VERY TRICKY IN THIS TYPE            
OF A PATTERN AS CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE SYSTEM MAY BOOST THEM HIGHER             
THAN EXPECTED.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER                 
CONDITIONS FOR AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS...KVGT...KDRA...               
KBIH...KDAG...KEED FOR DETAILS.                                                 
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.                               
&&                                                                              
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...NONE.                                                                     
.AZ...NONE.                                                                     
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
PIERCE/BELL                                                                     
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
923 AM CDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
YESTERDAY'S HIGH OF 89 DEGS IN NASHVILLE CAME WITHIN 2 DEGREES OF               
THE RECORD HIGH FOR OCT 4TH WHICH IS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1884.                  
INDIAN SUMMER WILL END TODAY AS A COLD FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE MID               
STATE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG           
WITH COOLER TEMPS. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS             
BEGINNING TO WORK DOWN INTO NORTHWEST MIDDLE TN AT MID-MORNING.                 
RUC MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY SCATTERED DURING THE DAY AS IT                    
LUMBERS ACROSS THE MID STATE.                                                   
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKES ANY CHANGES          
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
BOYD                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 247 AM CDT THU OCT 5 2006)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SFC COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE FROM WRN KY TO NORTH CNTRL            
AR. FRONT APPEARS TO BE MOVING SEWD AT 20 MPH. THE "FINE LINE" THAT             
APPEARS ON KOHX BASE REFLECTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA             
APPEARS TO BE SOME SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.                                  
AT UPPER LEVELS...AN H5 RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A                
BROAD TROUGH IS SEEN OVER CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. A DEEP TROUGH IS              
SEEN OVER WEST COAST.                                                           
WRF MODEL EXPECTS THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THE NASHVILLE AREA BETWEEN             
8 AM AND 9 AM AND THE CLARKSVILLE AROUND 2 PM.                                  
MODEL ALSO SHOWS PRECIPITATION INCREASING MAINLY OVER THE SERN                  
PORTION OF THE MIDSTATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP IS THEN PUSHED             
EAST OF THE PLATEAU AFTER 10 PM. MESOETA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS                 
INDICATE THAT TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SERN HALF OF THE               
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                                            
SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES THE MIDSTATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SFC LOW                
DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 TROUGH              
THAT DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND GENERATES AN H5 LOW OVER            
THE CAROLINAS THAT EVENTUALLY GETS KICKED OUT TO SEA.                           
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON MON BUT                 
WEAKENS SGFNTLY BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE WHEN REACHING THE MIDSTATE. A             
SECOND FRONT FOLLOWS ON WED WITH MUCH MORE DEFINITION AND A SLGT                
CHC FOR PRECIP ON WED NGT AND THU.                                              
MOS TEMPS AND POPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND NO SGFNT                     
DEVIATIONS ARE PLANNED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOYD                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED MARINE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO               
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE                 
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.  THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE KEEPS              
THIS FEATURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT                   
WESTWARD OVER TODAY AND FRIDAY.  THE 12Z BRO SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT               
THE MORNING PWAT OVER THE CWA HAVE DROPPED PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH            
A MORNING VALUE ONLY AROUND 1.6 INCHES IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY.              
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE BUILDING 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH            
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALSO VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGER               
AREA OF FOG AND LOW STATUS POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BRO              
CWA AND THIS SHOULD NOT POSE MUCH OF A THREAT TO THE AREA AND SHOULD            
BEGIN TO ERODE AWAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE                     
AFTERNOON HEATING. SO CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...20 TO 30 PERCENT                
POPS LOOK OK FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZFP AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY              
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS GUSTING             
TO NEAR 14 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8            
SECONDS AT 09 CDT/14 UTC. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF            
CAMPECHE WILL INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF             
MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS INTERACTION WILL PRODUCE             
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH EARLY               
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TRIO OF REGIONAL            
AIRPORTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY                 
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                  
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60                                                             
MARINE/AVIATION...66                                                            
MESO...ABBOTT                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
1040 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
MINOR TWEAKS TO MRNG UPDATE. HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLGTLY IN A               
FEW AREAS AND ADJUSTED POPS TO 30 FOR WRN/CNTRL CNTIES AND 20 FOR               
ERN CNTIES.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 342 AM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)                                             
..UNSEASONABLY COOL / WET & POTENTIALLY STORMY PRD AHEAD...                     
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...                                          
FIRST THINGS FIRST. PNTNL EXISTS FOR HVY RNFL ACROSS FA (2-4 IN                 
AVG WITH PTNTLLY HIGHER AMTS ALONG THE COAST). SINCE QPF WILL BE                
OBSERVED OVR A LONG PRD OF TIME...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ESF                  
RTHR THAN POST A FLOOD WATCH. LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE NEED FOR A              
FLOOD WATCH.                                                                    
CDFRNT RUNNING ABT 1-3 HRS BEHIND MODELS. THIS ALRDY MAKES FOR A                
COMPLICATED TMP FCST AS SOME CRNT READINGS ARE HIGHER THAN FCSTD                
MAX TMPS ACROSS NRN HALF OF FA. PCPN ASSCTD WITH FROPA MAINLY                   
BEHIND BDNRY IS TENDING TO DSPT PAST FEW HRS. THUS TDYS POPS WILL               
BE HIGHEST ACROSS WRN CNTYS. FRNT PROGGED JUST S OF VA/NC BRDR BY               
18Z. BY THEN...ENUF HEATING INDCTG AHEAD & ALONG BNDRY TO MAKE                  
AIRMASS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER CHC               
TO XTREME SW CNTYS THIS AFTRN. WILL TRY TO CONVEY STDY OR SLOWLY                
FALLING TMPS ACROSS NRN CNTYS THIS AFTRN IN GRIDS.                              
LEANED TOWARD GFS SOLN THRU FRI. BNDRY SAGS WELL S INTO NC BY 00Z.              
VORT MAX PROGGED TO MOVE E ALONG BNDRY WILL HAVE TROF XTNDG N ALONG             
MTS TONITE. XPCT PCPN TO RAPIDLY DVLP W-E ACROSS RGN THIS EVE.                  
ENUF LIFT/OMEGA PROGGED FOR SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF HVY RAIN AFTR                
06Z ACROSS PIEDMONT AREAS. SO...BASICALLY INCRSD CATEGORICAL POPS               
ALL AREAS LATE TONITE AND FRI.                                                  
UPR LVL NRGY DIVES SE FRI IN DVLPNG ERN TROF. SAID NRGY SPAWNS                  
CSTL LOW IVOF HAT. AIRMASS CONTS TO BE SATURATED ENUF TO SPRT                   
CATEGORICAL POPS AGAIN. CAVEAT TO THIS EVENT WILL BE HOW MUCH                   
TRPLCL MSTR (THAT IS LURKING OFF SE COAST) GETS ENTRAINED AS SYSTM              
GETS CUT-OFF. MODELS AGREE THAT ENUF OF THIS MSTR GETS WRAPPED                  
ARND INTO SERN CSTL AREAS FOR SOME HVY RNFLL FRI INTO FRI NITE.                 
CAA KEEPS TMPS FROM GOING NOWHERE WITH INLAND READINGS REMAINING IN             
THE 50S...SOME 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN YSTRDYS HIGHS IN THE 80S.                 
BY FRI NITE SYSTM BEGINS TO SLOWLY DRIFT S. AS PER DSCNS...THNK                 
GFS NWRD JOG LATE FRI NITE INTO ERLY SAT IS SUSPECT...SO WILL KEEP              
TRACK MORE TOWARD THE NAM (FRTHR S). LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S SE.                
PTNTL FOR SOME ELVTD CONVECTION ALONG SE CSTL AREAS...THIS ALL                  
DEPENDS ON EXACT LCTN OF LOW. WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER CHC ATTM...              
SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW.                                                        
SYSTM DRIFTS S INTO CAROLINAS SAT...BUT TSCTNS STILL LOADED WITH                
ENUF MSTR FOR LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS. HOWEVER...THNK PCPN COMES                  
LGHTR AND SPOTTY IN NATURE. TMPS U50S-L60S.                                     
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                 
LOW THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NE SAT NITE AND SUN. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS                 
(SHWRS) IN FOR NOW...ALL DEPENDS OF HOW CLOSE TO COAST LOW TRACKS.              
LEFT OF FCST LEFT UNCHANGED.                                                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING THE FRONT USING               
THE RUC WHICH IS A COUPLE HOURS SLOWER THEN GFS OR NAM. NOT A LOT OF            
CLOUDS INITIAL WITH FRONT SO MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE               
DAY. ALL MODELS AGREE WITH DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM STRONG DIVG DEVELOPS            
OVER THE SW PART OF THE AREA FIRST AND THIS BREAKS OUT RAIN TONIGHT.            
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH RH DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST              
AND MOVING INLAND AT SUNSET. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER WAS SLOWER             
WITH THE LOWERING OF CONDITIONS. DO BRING IFR TO MOST TAFS BETWEEN              
03Z AND 06Z ONLY ECG WILL BE LATER.                                             
MARINE...                                                                       
INITIAL SURGE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TODAY WILL PRODUCE SMALL              
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE BAY. WAVES WILL ALSO INCREASE ON THE COASTAL            
WATERS WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THERE BY AFTERNOON.               
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.              
ALL THIS IS WELL BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE               
SOUTHERN AND OFFSHORE POSITION OF THE NAM LOW. THIS STILL WILL                  
COMBINE WITH THE HIGH TO THE N TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS                     
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SAT. WHILE THERE STILL IS              
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE LOW ALL MODELS DO TO DEVELOP            
ENOUGH GRADIENT TO WARRANT GALES. ALSO WITH THE NE WINDS AND HIGH               
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CAN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO MODERATE                 
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY            
MORNING. ALL MODELS SHOW HIGH WEAKENING TO THE N ON SUNDAY AND LOW              
MOVING S THIS WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT BY THEN.                                  
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MDZ025 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM                    
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR VAZ095-098>100 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 2               
     PM SATURDAY.                                                               
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630-631 UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY.               
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632-650-652 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY.                       
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654-656-658 FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO              
     8 AM FRIDAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GINGRICH                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
254 AM CDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE                 
CENTERED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT                
EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST                
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF AND MOVES EAST ACROSS              
THE NORTHERN US. THIS WILL BRING A FRONT SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS              
BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UNTIL THIS HAPPENS THE WEATHER              
WILL REMAIN WARM AND TRANQUIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.                            
WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE PRESSURE              
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN A DEVELOPING LEE TROF OVER EASTERN                 
COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AFTER LOOKING AT               
THE RUC AND NAM WINDS IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHC OF REACHING                     
SUSTAINED ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF MY                  
CWA. A BETTER CHC OF REACHING ADVISORY WINDS IN MY CWA MAY BE ON                
SATURDAY.                                                                       
THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE SLIGHTLY                 
FASTER THAN THE NAM IN BRINGING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN KANSAS                  
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM                   
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE AND THE TIME               
OF DAY WILL KEEP ONLY 10 POPS IN FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UP NORTH.              
LACY                                                                            
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURES WITH               
SECONDARY STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. NEW GFS AND EC BRING DOWN             
COLD 850MB TEMPS FROM 0C TO 4C BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW ZERO            
ON THURSDAY. THIS IS WITH STRONG UPPER LOW FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE            
GREAT LAKES. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND. DO NOT              
THINK WILL BE AS COLD ON THURSDAY AS GFS ADVERTISES AT -7C WITH NEW             
EC PUSHING UPPER TROUGH EAST. OTHER CHALLENGES ARE LINGERING RAIN               
CHANCES IF PIECES OF UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST CONUS PUSH OUT AS GFS              
SHOWS.                                                                          
06                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC  83  60  86  61 /   0   0   0  10                                           
GCK  84  61  85  60 /   0   0   0  10                                           
EHA  83  60  84  57 /   0   0   0  10                                           
LBL  84  61  86  59 /   0   0   0  10                                           
HYS  83  61  88  61 /   0   0   0  10                                           
P28  84  59  87  62 /   0   0   0  10                                           
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FN27/06                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
318 AM CDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IR LOOP SHOWS LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF                   
WESTERN KENTUCKY. RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS            
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. MAY HAVE TO MAKE LAST             
MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE                
REGION...WHICH HAS BEEN VERY WELL ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THE                 
SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN              
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY LATER TODAY. THIS              
ALONG WITH THE DIGGING UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST              
WILL RESULT IN A BLOCKING PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. THE RIDGE OVER THE            
CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.              
THE RESULT WILL BE DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS.                    
ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH               
THE SHORT TERM AND WITH SOME OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SUGGEST THE                
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LATEST RUNS                
HAVE THINGS SPEEDED UP A BIT. EACH OF THE LAST THREE MODEL RUNS HAVE            
BEEN INCREASING POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...SO INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE              
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.                                                
MADE GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. WENT WITH WARMER              
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON SUNDAY WITH 14 DEGREE C 850 TEMPERATURES                    
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SPODEN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE                
COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHS ALONG THE                
WEST COAST AND ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/LOWER GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL                 
SHORTWAVES TO NOTE ARE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE UPSTREAM            
FLOW. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER            
CO THAT WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.                                
HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST OF OUR CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW NOW                  
PRESENT AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS OVER MANY AREAS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE                
LOWER 30S. KINL/KMPX SNDGS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE              
PROFILE. IR SAT SHOWS HIGH CLOUD FROM THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE                    
REACHING AREAS OF WESTERN MN. THE LAND BREEZE HAS KICKED IN ALONG               
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...WARMING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...                                              
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BUILD INTO             
UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY...ALLOWING WARMER AIR OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS             
YESTERDAY TO MOVE IN. IN FACT...THE GFS SUGGESTS 850MB TEMPS RISING             
TO 8-12C BY 00Z...WARMEST WEST. GIVEN THAT TODAY THERE WILL BE                  
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL              
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH                    
PRESSURE AREA...WE SHOULD MIX AT LEAST UP TO 900MB OR PERHAPS                   
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS             
CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST AND SIMILAR TO MET GUIDANCE.                        
THE WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...AND WILL ALSO BE            
STRONGER DUE TO PRESSURES FALLING IN THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A                 
STRONG SHRTWV LIFTING OUT OF THE SW. MODELS SHOW 850MB WINDS                    
INCREASING OVER MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO 40 KT OUT OF THE SW.                
THIS WARM ADVECTION IS ALSO SEEN ON 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS PLOTS               
FROM THE NAM/GFS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WESTERN UPPER                
MICHIGAN. THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS...COMBINED WITH ADVECTING IN             
UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE PLAINS (NOTED BY NEGATIVE EPV VALUES IN CROSS             
SECTIONS)...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ACCAS DECK ACROSS            
THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT. SINCE THE FORCING WITH               
THE FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG...NOTED BY A NEARLY VERTICAL              
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION...AND THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS/NEGATIVE EPV              
AREA IS SATURATED...HAVE BOTH RAISED AND EXPANDED POPS SOME FOR                 
TONIGHT. THE INCREASING WINDS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES FROM               
DROPPING AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE DONE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...AND                    
THEREFORE HAVE WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER 13 KM RUC AND MAV GUIDANCE.            
THE MET GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO COOL. GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS                    
COMPOSED OF SW WINDS...WHICH DOWNSLOPES ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...LAKE              
SUPERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY TONIGHT. GUSTS GRIDS                   
REFLECT THIS.                                                                   
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
SAT...MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK A BIT TOO COOL TONIGHT FOR THE AMOUNT OF             
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED...THEREFORE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN              
MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FCST MAX TEMPS               
SAT MAY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR            
WEST. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY CAUSE                
TEMPS TO BE VERY LOW SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SNDGS INDICATE SFC                 
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 5C IN IMT. IF THIS PANS OUT...IT WOULD BE                  
DIFFICULT FOR THE TEMPS TO RISE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOWER 70S. MAX             
TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE SHOULD BE OK SINCE THERE                
WILL BE LESS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS. AS FOR                  
MIXING...GFS/NAM MODEL SNDGS SHOW A DRY PROFILE AND A MIXING HEIGHT             
AROUND 2500FT. THIS GIVES MIXING UP TO AROUND 900MB...WHICH GIVES               
SFC TEMPS OF AT LEAST 65F. WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING              
WINDS...CONFIDENT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.             
FIRE WX MAY BE A CONCERN.                                                       
SAT NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT...WITH                 
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DUE TO THE                
UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. KEPT LOW TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S            
ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...AND IN THE LOWER              
50S ELSEWHERE.                                                                  
SUN THROUGH MON...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY                
ACROSS OUR CWA BEGINNING AROUND 12Z. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES GET UP TO            
7.25C ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. IN THE MORNING...THEN STABILIZE AFTER             
THE SFC FROPA. CHANGED WX TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS SUN MORNING WEST HALF...THEN KEPT THE CHANCE OF                   
SHOWERS FOR THE WHOLE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER             
LEVEL FROPA. GFS/NAM SNDGS SHOW 850MB TEMPS STEADILY WARMER THAN THE            
SFC UNTIL 00Z MON. KEPT SUN MAX TEMPS WITH GOING FCST IN THE UPPER              
60S. SUN NIGHT DECREASED MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR               
DECREASING CLOUDS...WENT WITH HPC/GFS COOP MOS BLEND. MON...LOWERED             
HIGHS EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WITH THE STIFF            
NW WIND ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT EXPECTING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS                 
BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO AIR THAT IS TOO DRY.                                    
FOR TUE THROUGH THU...NORMALLY DO NOT WORK ON THE EXTENDED ON THIS              
SHIFT...BUT LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND UKMET AND GFS...HAD TO LOWER               
TEMPERATURES ON WED AND THURSDAY DRASTICALLY AND ALSO HAD TO                    
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR WED NIGHT AND THU                
ACROSS THE WEST HALF. THE GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES            
DROPPING TO BELOW -10C AND WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES BEING AROUND                  
11C-15C...THIS IS ENOUGH FOR A LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION EVENT.                 
PROBLEM IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A WOUND UP SYSTEM               
WITH A DRY SLOT AND OCCLUDED FRONT WORKING THROUGH AND THE WINDS                
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY OR EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION            
ON WED NIGHT AND THU. WILL GO CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. IT IS ALSO HARD              
TO FIGURE OUT IF THERE WILL BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON THU OVER THE EAST.            
1000-850 MB THICKNESS WILL NOT WORK WELL BECAUSE IT IS EARLY IN THE             
SEASON AND THE 1305 METER THICKNESS RULE OF 1000-850 MB DOES NOT                
WORK                                                                            
WELL EARLY IN THE FALL AND WINTER SEASON. WILL GO WITH THE WEST HALF            
AS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ELEVATION A             
KEY PLAYER AND THE WEST WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE COLD AIR LONGER               
THAN THE EAST HALF.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MRC/AJ/GM                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
305 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW                        
ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC                    
MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHERE PW VALUES ACROSS               
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (SLC/RIW/GJT) WERE OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.              
CLOSER TO HOME...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS TRACKING THROUGH              
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING A CUTOFF                    
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST CONUS              
LATER TODAY. THIS WILL SET UP A PSEUDO OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN INTO THE             
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH             
THE DRY RIDGE AXIS.                                                             
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS            
WHETHER OR NOT LOW STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE               
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS TYPICALLY OCCURS DURING FALL. GFS/NAM                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...4000 FEET OR                       
LESS...WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT AWFULLY TOUGH WITH THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL            
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS INDICATING EASTERLY FLOW                
COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO LOW STRATUS ACROSS              
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA COME FRIDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE HIGH 925             
MB RH INDICATED. 00Z GFS IS DRIER (925 MB RH RISING INTO THE 60                 
PERCENT RANGE)...AND IS PREFERRED WITH THE USUAL MOIST BIAS OF THE              
NAM IN THE LOW LEVELS. NOT TO MENTION 850 MB TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY               
WARM (8 C) AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS WEAK.                                   
FEW IF ANY CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPS THIS WEEKEND...AS THEY ARE IN              
LINE WITH THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE AND APPEAR REASONABLE. ANOTHER FROST             
ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERING.            
RETURN FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP...WITH                     
SUNDAY SHAPING UP TO BE THE WARMEST DAY (LOW TO MID 70S) OF THE                 
FORECAST PERIOD OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS THE             
POTENTIAL OF COMING THROUGH DRY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH WEAK FRONTAL           
CONVERGENCE...WARM MID LEVELS/CAP...AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING             
(WHICH MOVES INTO ONTARIO).                                                     
NEXT WEEK IS THEN EXPECTED TO FEATURE ANOTHER MAJOR PATTERN                     
SHIFT...AS POLAR VORTEX SETS UP SHOP OVER/NEAR HUDSON BAY (PER                  
12Z EUROPEAN/00Z GLOBAL) WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION...DELIVERING                
POTENTIALLY THE FIRST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE                
REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/EUROPEAN                 
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTHWEST/SLOWER WITH THE COLD CORE...AND             
THUS HAVE ONLY MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO DAY 7 MAXES                 
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 105 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
SATELLITE IMAGERY VERY LATE IN EVENING SHOWS SOUTHEAST MI NEARLY                
FREE OF CLOUDS...THE MAIN CLOUDS BEING SMALL PATCHES FROM THE                   
EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR LAKE ST CLAIR. LATEST RUC...AND TO MUCH LESSER            
EXTENT NAM...SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO                 
FRIDAY DAYTIME HOURS IN NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...BUT YET              
NAM AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW CLEAR FOR ALL TAF SITES. CHANCE              
OF MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO TAF             
SITES APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS              
WILL RETAIN TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z THROUGH 12Z AT KFNT FOR POSSIBLE               
CEILINGS NEAR 3K FEET. THERMAL TROUGH STILL HANGING AROUND OVERHEAD             
OVERNIGHT TO PROMOTE DELTA TS OVER LAKE HURON WELL INTO THE TEENS.              
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS OVERALL VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH               
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN. LATEST NAM LOW         
THROUGH MID LEVEL QVECTOR AND OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                 
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME IS VERY            
WEAK IN DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FRIDAY.                             
EXCEPT AS NOTED FOR KFNT ABOVE...06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR...IN FACT NO              
CEILINGS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EITHER.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ082 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.                                                  
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...GSS                                                                
LONG TERM....SF                                                                 
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
105 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SATELLITE IMAGERY VERY LATE IN EVENING SHOWS SOUTHEAST MI NEARLY                
FREE OF CLOUDS...THE MAIN CLOUDS BEING SMALL PATCHES FROM THE                   
EASTERN THUMB TO NEAR LAKE ST CLAIR. LATEST RUC...AND TO MUCH LESSER            
EXTENT NAM...SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO                 
FRIDAY DAYTIME HOURS IN NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON...BUT YET              
NAM AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW CLEAR FOR ALL TAF SITES. CHANCE              
OF MUCH IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO TAF             
SITES APPEARS MARGINAL AT BEST...BUT GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS              
WILL RETAIN TEMPO GROUP FROM 10Z THROUGH 12Z AT KFNT FOR POSSIBLE               
CEILINGS NEAR 3K FEET. THERMAL TROUGH STILL HANGING AROUND OVERHEAD             
OVERNIGHT TO PROMOTE DELTA TS OVER LAKE HURON WELL INTO THE TEENS.              
LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWS OVERALL VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH               
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING IN. LATEST NAM LOW         
THROUGH MID LEVEL QVECTOR AND OMEGA FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE                 
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AND AWIPS CUMULUS SCHEME IS VERY            
WEAK IN DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FRIDAY.                             
EXCEPT AS NOTED FOR KFNT ABOVE...06Z TAFS WILL BE VFR...IN FACT NO              
CEILINGS. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EITHER.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY                                                 
LAKE STRATUS COMBINING WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND               
THE PEAK HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SCT-BKN DECK NORTH OF M59 TODAY.               
IN FACT...SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VIA RADAR IN               
SAGINAW BAY INTO ADJACENT HURON AND TUSCOLA COUNTIES SHORELINES.                
SOME MESOSCALE INFLUENCES ARE OBSERVED IN THE 1KM IMAGERY AS A                  
NORTHEAST COMPONENT TO THE WIND HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY SUNNY SOUTH OF            
8-MILE ROAD DOWN TO THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE.  HERE TOO SOME CLOUDS              
WILL FILL IN AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION            
THIS EVENING.  SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BUT THEN THE                 
COMPLICATED LAKE STRATUS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.                        
ONCE AGAIN...THE WRF-NMM AND RUC2-13KM SUGGEST ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE             
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT BAX-JXN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...AS                 
OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS               
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR REVEAL CLOUDS DECREASING DUE TO THE INCREASED                 
SUBSIDENCE.  MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVERNIGHT AS              
TROUGH AMPLIFIES JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.  SO AT THE MINIMUM                      
CLR-PTCLOUDY SKIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE THUMB-FNT-OZW WITH MOCLEAR               
SKIES ELSEWHERE.  WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 30S AND                
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE MIDDLE 30S...COMBINE THAT WITH                
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE                                 
OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DIPPING DOWN INTO               
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE...LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND            
DOWNTOWN DTW (EVEN IF CLOUDS DEVELOP...SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS).                
THEREFORE FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE HOISTED TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE              
CWA.                                                                            
A NICE END TO THE WEEK WITH RIDGE BUILDING AT ALL LEVELS AND A DRY              
COLUMN TO BRING SUNSHINE.  WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A 2-3 DEGREE RISE             
AT 850MB...SHOULD RESULT INTO A NICE DIURNAL RISE OF 25-30 DEGREES              
INTO THE LOWER 60S INLAND...UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE HURON.                          
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY                                  
ANOTHER CHILLY/FROSTY START TO THE DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY                 
AFTER A CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CALM WIND AND CONTINUED IDEAL                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE 12Z MODELS INDICATED SOME THIN              
CIRRUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE              
AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AID IN ELEVATING                        
TEMPERATURES. THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR AREAS OF FROST IN MOST               
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKES AND CITY OF DETROIT AND THIS LOOKS                
GOOD WITH LOW TEMPS AS CHILLY AS 32F POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY                  
COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR THUMB AND CENTRAL LOWER.                       
THE WEEKEND WARMING TREND WILL THEN GET UNDERWAY DURING SATURDAY                
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST AND ALLOW                   
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A                 
MODEST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER GENERALLY BELOW 900 MB. THIS IS ABOUT               
RIGHT FOR EARLY OCTOBER IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION                    
PATTERN. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGH TEMPS LOWER THAN THE POTENTIAL                 
INDICATED BY WARMING 850 MB TEMPS BUT ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE                   
MACHINE NUMBERS WHEN FACTORING IN PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE             
AT LEAST IN THE MID 60S AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH 70 IN THE SAGINAW                 
VALLEY WITH STRONGER SW FLOW. THE SW FLOW WILL BE STRONGER BUT THE              
GRADIENT IN THE MODELS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A                  
STEADY WIND SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. PLAN             
TO SHADE LOW TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION            
OF GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS                 
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, PREFER THE COOLER MET/NAM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE             
WITH OFFERINGS DOWN NEAR 40.                                                    
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY IN TERMS OF THE TEMPERATURE             
PROFILE AND SKY CONDITION, EXCEPT THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A               
FEW DEGREES WARMER THANKS TO EVEN STRONGER SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS              
WILL BE DUE TO A RESPECTABLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN                
CENTRAL CANADA, WHICH THE 12Z MODELS MAINTAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE AND            
CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO              
MID 70S WILL BE REACHABLE AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT               
WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP BY SUNDAY EVENING. TIMING ON THE PASSAGE OF             
THIS FRONT REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT                
WITH A LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY, SO MUCH SO THAT THE NORMALLY                    
GENEROUS GFS OFFERS ONLY A FEW 100THS INCH QPF SUNDAY NIGHT AND                 
MONDAY. MORE CERTAIN THAN RAIN CHANCES IS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR              
THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE RANGE COMPARABLE TO EARLIER             
THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND THE USUAL                
COMPLEMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCU ON MONDAY.                                      
CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENT TIMING ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FRONTAL            
SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE              
OVER SE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AS THE WHEELS TURN ON ANOTHER                       
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER AIR PATTERN CHANGE. ADVERTISEMENT OF THIS BEGAN IN            
LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS AND CONTINUED TODAY. THE DRIVER OF THE                   
CHANGE WILL BE STRONG AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE                
CLOSED UPPER LOW DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. TRENDS               
IN THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOW AN UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT IS NOT AS              
DEEP/COLD AS THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS, BUT WITH SIMILAR TIMING               
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. DETAILS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES                 
WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME BUT THE BEST SHOT RIGHT NOW BRINGS THE                
COLD FRONT AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT                
AND THURSDAY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...FROST ADVISORY...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-                
     MIZ060-MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-                   
     MIZ082...MIDNIGHT FRIDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY.                                   
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
922 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MORNING HEADLINE FOR FROST ADV. SATELLITE               
SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF CWA FROM I81 EAST IN NYS AND               
ALL OF NE PA. SATELLITE TRENDS AND RUC/GFS MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE              
FAIRLY DENSE MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS                  
AFTERNOON ESP ACROSS WYOMING VALLEY/POCONOS. UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES                
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY HERE AND MOSTLY SUNNY FINGER LAKES AND NRN ZONES               
WITH PS IN BETWEEN. NO OTHER CHANGES.                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...                                    
HIPRES OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY HOLDING THE CLSD LOW AND RAIN                   
SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. HWVR...CLDS FROM THE SYSTEM HAS HELPED KEEP             
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO SHARPLY SO FAR. MOST CRNTS NEAR OR ABV 40.               
VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CNSRBL SUN TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CI                 
MAY HANG ARND THE CNTRL AND SRN ZONES FOR PART OF THE MRNG. SOME                
LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS SHOWN OF ERIE AND ONTARIO...BUT NE FLOW WILL              
KEEP THEM OUT OF THE FCST AREA.                                                 
TNGT WILL BE COLDER THAN LAST WITH FEW OR NO CLDS AVBL TO LIMIT                 
THE RADIATION. NE FLOW WILL LIMIT LAKE MODIFICATION OF THE                      
AIR...SO BELIEVE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LWR 30S...AND EVEN SOME               
UPPER 20S. HAVE ONCE AGAIN ISSUED FROST ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE              
AREA...WITH FREEZE WARNING ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND                              
CATSKILLS...AWAY FROM THE LAKES INFLUENCE.                                      
DRY CONDS CONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD.                                     
FLWD BLENDED MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.                                                
AVIATION...                                                                     
CLDS ACRS SE SXNS WITH VFR CIGS 5-6K FT AT AVP. LOWER DECK SHUD PULL            
OUT WITH JUST AN AC OR CI DECK BY THIS AFTN. OTRW, VFR CONDITIONS               
WITH ONLY SCT CLD. WINDS GNRLY NE 10 KTS OR LESS.                               
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                    
GFS MOS TEMPS APPEAR SEVERAL DEG TOO HIGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY              
SUNDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT WIND AND DRY AIR UNDER THE CENTER               
OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS MAY EVEN HAVE TO ADJUSTED FURTHER DOWNWARD              
A FEW MORE DEG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS.                
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BUT LIKELY                     
ACCOMPANIED BY NOTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AD PERHAPS A FEW                   
SPRINKLES.                                                                      
UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY DROP AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL                  
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BACKING TO THE SW DURING THE MID TO LATE               
WEEK. TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL /IN THE 50S/               
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S LATE            
IN THE WEEK.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...FREEZE WARNING FOR NYZ022-024-044>046-055>057 FROM 1 AM                    
     SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.                                                 
  ...FROST ADVISORY FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-062 FROM 1               
     AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM SATURDAY.                                              
PA...FROST ADVISORY FOR PAZ038>040-043 FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM               
     SATURDAY.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...RRM                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...PLAN TO UPDATE AND ADD IN CHANCE OF              
THUNDER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WE'RE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE WARM              
SECTOR WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. LATEST RUC40            
AND SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY THIS                    
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS AND FORECAST TEMPS STILL LOOK GOOD. ALSO                 
ADDED THUNDER TO COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WILL                   
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS. NO CHANGES MADE             
BEYOND THAT.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...CIG/VIS IMPROVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. VARYING                     
CIGS/VSBY CATEGORIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH SFC LOW OVER THE AREA AND              
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING. PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR              
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD IFR                
CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A                   
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT            
AS NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD            
THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD FCST              
AS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW OVER THE                
REGION. REMAINDER OF FCST REMAINS ON TRACK.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT              
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HSA/RAP                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1050 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                     
IF THIS WAS ONLY WINTER WITH THIS CURRENT WEATHER SETUP, WE WOULD BE            
DEALING WITH SNOW! ANYHOW, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY                   
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO OUR WEST. AN                 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION LOCATED             
NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL               
PROBABLY NOT MOVE TO MUCH AS THE SHARP TROUGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD                 
THROUGH TODAY AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL               
APPALACHIAN REGION. STRONG LIFT WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND DELMARVA. THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY            
RAIN AS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND IS              
DEPICTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE RUC. THE GOING             
FORECAST HANDLES THIS TREND WELL AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS                
WERE MADE TO THE TIMING.                                                        
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE             
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER INCH            
OR SO IS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH MUCH LESSER             
AMOUNTS AS YOU GO NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED,            
HOWEVER SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SOME PONDING            
OF WATER ON ROADS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. WE WILL MONITOR RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS AND TRENDS.                                                             
REGARDING WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP AS              
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT FORECAST            
TO BE THAT STRONG, HOWEVER IT WILL COMBINE WITH A 1036 MB HIGH TO               
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BE PLENTY TO CREATE/SUSTAIN A STRONG ONSHORE               
FLOW. THIS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS            
BUOY 44009 HAS GUSTED TO 45 MPH ALREADY. SOME COASTAL OBSERVING                 
SITES SHOWING GUSTS TO 48 MPH IN AVALON, NJ, 44 MPH AT LEWES, DE AND            
33 MPH AT THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA. THE GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS               
GOOD, HOWEVER WE WILL START IT NOW BASED ON SOME CURRENT WIND GUSTS             
BEING OBSERVED AT THE COAST AS WELL AS INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS A               
BIT MORE IN THE FORECAST.                                                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE              
REGION BASED ON PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BOARD AND                     
CONTINUED RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. UPDATED PRODUCTS             
SHOULD HIT THE STREET BY 11:30 AM. ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON IF ANY HEADLINES CHANGE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO BEGIN THE GALE               
WARNINGS A BIT SOONER. THE GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL                  
MARINE ZONES DUE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PEAK WIND GUSTS                
SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHER OF THE GUSTS            
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE UP TO 10            
FEET AT 13Z. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME MORE THROUGH THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.TIDES...                                                                       
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT NEW DATA AND GUIDANCE THIS MORNING REGARDING             
THE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL. WE ARE LOOKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF             
UPGRADING THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE             
OF HOURS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ024-025 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                         
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027 FROM 7 PM                   
     FRIDAY TO 2 AM SUNDAY.                                                     
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR DEZ001>004 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM                
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR DEZ004 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...GORSE                                                                  
MARINE/TIDES...O'HARA                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
1118 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
LARGE AREA OF RAIN EXITED THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z                
WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN FROM EASTERN WEST VIRIGNIA INTO                  
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 15Z. PRECIPITATION IS ORIENTED AROUND                 
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. LATEST RUC MODELS              
BRING UPPER LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 00Z               
TONIGHT. AS STEERING WINDS AROUND THE LOW BECOME MORE EAST AND                  
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 18-21Z A MORE WIDEPSREAD AREA OF RAIN WILL                    
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP ALOFT              
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE CLOUD COVER AND KEEP THE FORECSAT AREA                 
STABLE ENOUGH TO PRVENT ANY THUNDER. SURFACE LOW IS NOW MOVING                  
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE               
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING A BETTER SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVING BY             
LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AT ALL FORECAST SITES HAD TEMPERATURES                 
DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDDED                  
DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE                
THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 643 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON                
THE COAST. 30 TO 40 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE ABOUT 1500                   
FEET BY AFTN. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AND THINK             
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SFC TO 1500 WILL BE GRADUAL ENUF               
TO PRECLUDE LLWS AT DAN/LYH/ROA. LEFT LLWS IN LWB AND BLF FOR                   
LATE TDA AND TNGT AS SFC WINDS LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT. THESE WINDS              
ALOFT CONTINUE THRU 12Z SAT. LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS                  
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH. MVFR IS PROBABLY AS GOOD AS IT GETS TODAY WITH              
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTR IN PLACE FOR A WHILE. SFC WINDS FROM THE              
NE MAY KEEP VSBYS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE                       
DAY...BUT THEN CHC OF RAIN INCREASES AND THUS LOWER (MVFR) VSBYS.               
RAIN CONTS TNGT WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 259 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND RESULTANT                 
INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL             
COVERAGE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS               
OF THE FCST AREA (FA) HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING SOUTH THANKS TO                
ADVANCING UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING SFC LOW NEAR CLT. THIS LOW               
WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW IN                  
ITS WAKE REALLY PULLING DOWN THE COOL AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY               
BE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY.                   
MEANWHILE RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN AS              
UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER NC RAIN WILL WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE               
MTNS AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD TNGT. STRONG PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND                 
WILL KEEP IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL NE FLOW AND VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS               
THE FA THRU SATURDAY. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY                      
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING DYNAMIC SPPT FOR RAINFALL. AREAS               
OF RAIN LIKELY TO ARND SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE WIDELY SCTD.                      
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPR LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THRU THE                 
WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 845 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
EVENING TSTMS HAVE WEEKENED. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER FLOW                
TRANSFORMS INTO HIGH AMPLITUED CONFIGURATION WITH BOOKEND CUTOFF                
LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MID CONUS RIDGE COME THIS TIME FRIDAY.               
SIGNIFICANT DINAMIC LIFT IF FCST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THE NEXT 24              
HOURS...THUS SO ANTICIPATING WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH 1-2                 
INCHES QPF THROUGH 00 UTC TOMORROW EVENING.                                     
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL. PWATS HAVE CLIMBED              
WELL ABOVE 1 INCH AT RNK/GSO...THE GSO SOUNDING A VERY MOIST 1.50.              
IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP EARLY                  
FRIDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SLOW CELL MOTION IN COMBINATION WITH                  
THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS COULD EASIALLY SUPPORT RAIN RATES THAT                   
WOULD RESULT IN MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF QPF. IF THIS OCCURS...MAY               
NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
BLUE RIDGE...IN SPITE OF THE LOW STREAM LEVELS.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN               
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AFT 06                 
UTC...CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PD.                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 351 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE UPR LOW THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING THE               
LOCAL WX THRU THE SHORT TERM. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED                      
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPR RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL                           
CONUS...ALLOWING PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES                  
THIS AFTN TO BEGIN DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD PER LATEST WV PICS.                
AT THE SFC...BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EAST OF              
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTH THRU                   
NORTHERN VA.                                                                    
LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD                 
FRONT. MSAS AND SPC ANALYSIS HAS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE            
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING              
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN TAZEWELL...CARROL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.             
COVERAGE WILL BE BEST IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.                              
BIG TRANSITION IN THE UPPER PATTERN TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE              
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF OVERNIGHT.              
BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 03Z AND BY 06Z FORECAST AREA             
IN UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN COUPLED JETS AND            
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300K LAYER. PRECIPITATBLE WATER               
VALUES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ARE NOW GREATER             
THAN 1.0 INCH. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES FROM THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN                       
ADDITION...TONIGHT WILL BE THE START OF A BIG SURGE OF COLDER                   
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH 850 MB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AND             
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND +6 IN THE NORTHWEST                 
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z. SO PLAN TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN             
THE EAST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.                                      
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING CLOSED UPR SYSTEM            
SOUTH ACRS THE REGION THRU EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TO             
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD              
OF MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN               
CHANCES. BEST PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TONIGHT STILL APPEAR TO RESIDE               
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BEST                   
FORCING INITIALLY...AND THEN IN AREA OF BETTER WARM ADVECTION WRAP              
AROUND PRECIP BY SATURDAY AS UPR LOW SINKS SOUTH. STILL HAVE                    
QUESTIONS ABOUT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. THINKING MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH A            
STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND INCREASED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE COAST.                
WILL RUN WITH THE IDEA OF A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM...WHICH IN CONTRAST             
TO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH IS LIKELY TO CREATE SOME RATHER                 
GUSTY WINDS ACRS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS              
ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO GO NOWHERE (BUT DOWN IN THE AFTN) WITH STRONG               
COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS...AND LIKELY OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGHS TO COME             
EARLY FOR MANY AREAS AND HAVE FOLLOWED MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS             
REASONABLE IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL               
FOR SATURDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING OVR THE EAST. SYSTEM FINALLY                 
LOOKS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WX BY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH               
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND                  
COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE.                                                          
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY MONDAY AS STUBBORN UPR LOW                
BEGINS TO FILL AND GETS SHUNTED FARTHER EAST GIVEN APPROACHING                  
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY ON                  
MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE WEST FINALLY FOLDS OVER INTO              
THE REGION. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHING ON LATE                     
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACRS THE                      
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK                
WITH GIVEN RIDGING ACRS THE GULF...WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FCST.                   
PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BY THE            
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING INTO THE               
GULF OF ALASKA HELPS CARVE OUT DEEPENING UPR TROUGH ACRS THE CENTRAL            
CONUS. WHILE SPECIFICS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF TROUGHING                    
CERTAINLY FAR FROM SET IN STONE...OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST ONE             
OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A                    
TRANSITION TO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY. NOT YET READY              
TO ACCEPT THE EXTREMELY DEEP SYSTEM OVR THE NORTHERN PLAINS                     
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS             
SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
1253 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                      
.UPDATE #2...                                                                   
A QUICK TEXT PRODUCT UPDATE WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO CHANGE A                    
HEADLINE, AS WE JUST UPGRADED THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TO A WARNING.             
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE#1 /THIS AFTERNOON/...                                                   
IF THIS WAS ONLY WINTER WITH THIS CURRENT WEATHER SETUP, WE WOULD BE            
DEALING WITH SNOW! ANYHOW, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY                   
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO OUR WEST. AN                 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG UPPER JET ENTRANCE REGION LOCATED             
NEAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND THIS FEATURE WILL               
PROBABLY NOT MOVE TO MUCH AS THE SHARP TROUGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD                 
THROUGH TODAY AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW TOWARD THE CENTRAL               
APPALACHIAN REGION. STRONG LIFT WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE               
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AND DELMARVA. THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADY            
RAIN AS BEEN SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING, AND THIS TREND IS              
DEPICTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE RUC. THE GOING             
FORECAST HANDLES THIS TREND WELL AND ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS                
WERE MADE TO THE TIMING.                                                        
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HEAVIEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE             
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER INCH            
OR SO IS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, WITH MUCH LESSER             
AMOUNTS AS YOU GO NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED,            
HOWEVER SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS SOME PONDING            
OF WATER ON ROADS IS QUITE POSSIBLE. WE WILL MONITOR RAINFALL                   
AMOUNTS AND TRENDS.                                                             
REGARDING WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN UP AS              
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW IS NOT FORECAST            
TO BE THAT STRONG, HOWEVER IT WILL COMBINE WITH A 1036 MB HIGH TO               
OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BE PLENTY TO CREATE/SUSTAIN A STRONG ONSHORE               
FLOW. THIS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS            
BUOY 44009 HAS GUSTED TO 45 MPH ALREADY. SOME COASTAL OBSERVING                 
SITES SHOWING GUSTS TO 48 MPH IN AVALON, NJ, 44 MPH AT LEWES, DE AND            
33 MPH AT THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA. THE GOING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS               
GOOD, HOWEVER WE WILL START IT NOW BASED ON SOME CURRENT WIND GUSTS             
BEING OBSERVED AT THE COAST AS WELL AS INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS A               
BIT MORE IN THE FORECAST.                                                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE              
REGION BASED ON PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BOARD AND                     
CONTINUED RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. UPDATED PRODUCTS             
SHOULD HIT THE STREET BY 11:30 AM. ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED BY              
EARLY AFTERNOON IF ANY HEADLINES CHANGE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER TO BEGIN THE GALE               
WARNINGS A BIT SOONER. THE GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL                  
MARINE ZONES DUE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. PEAK WIND GUSTS                
SHOULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS, WITH THE HIGHER OF THE GUSTS            
BEING OBSERVED OVER THE OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE UP TO 10            
FEET AT 13Z. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD SOME MORE THROUGH THIS              
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.TIDES...                                                                       
THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. THE LATEST              
INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED IN THE PRODUCT, PHLCFWPHI.                          
&&                                                                              
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NJZ024-025 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                         
  ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027 FROM 7 PM                 
     FRIDAY TO 2 AM SUNDAY.                                                     
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR DEZ001>004 FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 2 AM              
     SUNDAY.                                                                    
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR DEZ004 UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY.                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455 UNTIL NOON SATURDAY.               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATES...GORSE                                                                 
MARINE/TIDES...O'HARA                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA                                          
149 PM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS WILL BE IFR OR LOWERING TO IFR BY 03Z TONIGHT AS                       
DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS THROUGH               
A DEEP LAYER WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL AIDE IN                 
LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITAION TONIGHT AND RESULT IN BANKING THE              
STRATUS UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE UPPER                
LOW MOVES SOUTH ON SATURDAY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE                 
AREA AND VISIBILITES WILL IMPROVE. WINDS AT 1000-3000 FEET WILL                 
BE INCREASING TO THE 40-50KT RANGE SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS                  
BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE BLF AND LWB WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WONT BE              
AS STRONG AND GUSTY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 1118 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
LARGE AREA OF RAIN EXITED THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z                
WITH ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN FROM EASTERN WEST VIRIGNIA INTO                  
SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AT 15Z. PRECIPITATION IS ORIENTED AROUND                 
UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. LATEST RUC MODELS              
BRING UPPER LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 00Z               
TONIGHT. AS STEERING WINDS AROUND THE LOW BECOME MORE EAST AND                  
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 18-21Z A MORE WIDEPSREAD AREA OF RAIN WILL                    
SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP ALOFT              
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE CLOUD COVER AND KEEP THE FORECSAT AREA                 
STABLE ENOUGH TO PRVENT ANY THUNDER. SURFACE LOW IS NOW MOVING                  
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE               
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ALLOWING A BETTER SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVING BY             
LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE AT ALL FORECAST SITES HAD TEMPERATURES                 
DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE GRIDDED                  
DATABASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA WHERE                
THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.                               
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 643 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006)                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
STRONG NE WINDS ALOFT WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON                
THE COAST. 30 TO 40 KT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ABOVE ABOUT 1500                   
FEET BY AFTN. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AND THINK             
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SFC TO 1500 WILL BE GRADUAL ENUF               
TO PRECLUDE LLWS AT DAN/LYH/ROA. LEFT LLWS IN LWB AND BLF FOR                   
LATE TDA AND TNGT AS SFC WINDS LIKELY TO BECOME LIGHT. THESE WINDS              
ALOFT CONTINUE THRU 12Z SAT. LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS                  
TODAY BUT NOT MUCH. MVFR IS PROBABLY AS GOOD AS IT GETS TODAY WITH              
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTR IN PLACE FOR A WHILE. SFC WINDS FROM THE              
NE MAY KEEP VSBYS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE                       
DAY...BUT THEN CHC OF RAIN INCREASES AND THUS LOWER (MVFR) VSBYS.               
RAIN CONTS TNGT WITH SLOWLY LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.                            
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 259 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVING DOWN THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND RESULTANT                 
INCREASING DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL             
COVERAGE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS               
OF THE FCST AREA (FA) HAVING A HARD TIME PUSHING SOUTH THANKS TO                
ADVANCING UPPER WAVE AND STRENGTHENING SFC LOW NEAR CLT. THIS LOW               
WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TODAY WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW IN                  
ITS WAKE REALLY PULLING DOWN THE COOL AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY               
BE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS THE REST OF THE DAY.                   
MEANWHILE RAIN SHIELD WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN AS              
UPPER WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER NC RAIN WILL WRAP BACK AROUND INTO THE               
MTNS AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD TNGT. STRONG PRESSURE                    
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND                 
WILL KEEP IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL NE FLOW AND VERY CHILLY TEMPS ACROSS               
THE FA THRU SATURDAY. SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED BY                      
SATURDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING DYNAMIC SPPT FOR RAINFALL. AREAS               
OF RAIN LIKELY TO ARND SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE WIDELY SCTD.                      
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE UPR LOW DRIFTING SOUTH THRU THE                 
WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS SFC               
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.                         
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 845 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                 
EVENING TSTMS HAVE WEEKENED. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD                    
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER FLOW                
TRANSFORMS INTO HIGH AMPLITUED CONFIGURATION WITH BOOKEND CUTOFF                
LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MID CONUS RIDGE COME THIS TIME FRIDAY.               
SIGNIFICANT DINAMIC LIFT IF FCST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THE NEXT 24              
HOURS...THUS SO ANTICIPATING WET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH 1-2                 
INCHES QPF THROUGH 00 UTC TOMORROW EVENING.                                     
A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT OVERALL QPF POTENTIAL. PWATS HAVE CLIMBED              
WELL ABOVE 1 INCH AT RNK/GSO...THE GSO SOUNDING A VERY MOIST 1.50.              
IF MODELS ARE CORRECT WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP EARLY                  
FRIDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW AND SLOW CELL MOTION IN COMBINATION WITH                  
THIS HIGH PWAT AIRMASS COULD EASIALLY SUPPORT RAIN RATES THAT                   
WOULD RESULT IN MORE THAN 1-2 INCHES OF QPF. IF THIS OCCURS...MAY               
NEED TO CONSIDER FLOOD WATCH FOR SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE               
BLUE RIDGE...IN SPITE OF THE LOW STREAM LEVELS.                                 
AVIATION...                                                                     
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN               
WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AFT 06                 
UTC...CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PD.                                     
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 (ISSUED 351 PM EDT THU OCT 5 2006)                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...                                    
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE UPR LOW THAT WILL BE INFLUENCING THE               
LOCAL WX THRU THE SHORT TERM. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED                      
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPR RIDGE ACRS THE CENTRAL                           
CONUS...ALLOWING PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING THRU THE GREAT LAKES                  
THIS AFTN TO BEGIN DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD PER LATEST WV PICS.                
AT THE SFC...BACKDOOR FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD EAST OF              
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER SOUTH THRU                   
NORTHERN VA.                                                                    
LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD                 
FRONT. MSAS AND SPC ANALYSIS HAS BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE            
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. LOW LEVEL                
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING              
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN TAZEWELL...CARROL AND PATRICK COUNTIES.             
COVERAGE WILL BE BEST IN THE FOOTHILLS WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS              
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN             
IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.                              
BIG TRANSITION IN THE UPPER PATTERN TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE OVER THE              
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIVES SOUTHEAST AND CLOSES OFF OVERNIGHT.              
BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ARRIVES AFTER 03Z AND BY 06Z FORECAST AREA             
IN UNDER AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN COUPLED JETS AND            
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300K LAYER. PRECIPITATBLE WATER               
VALUES HAVE BEEN CLIMBING FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND ARE NOW GREATER             
THAN 1.0 INCH. AT THE SURFACE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES FROM THE                    
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN                       
ADDITION...TONIGHT WILL BE THE START OF A BIG SURGE OF COLDER                   
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH 850 MB WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AND             
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND +6 IN THE NORTHWEST                 
COUNTY WARNING AREA BY 12Z. SO PLAN TO INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN                  
ESPECIALLY IN THE 03-09Z TIME FRAME. RAISED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN             
THE EAST TONIGHT...CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.                                      
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING CLOSED UPR SYSTEM            
SOUTH ACRS THE REGION THRU EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING TO             
THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD              
OF MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN               
CHANCES. BEST PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TONIGHT STILL APPEAR TO RESIDE               
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO BEST                   
FORCING INITIALLY...AND THEN IN AREA OF BETTER WARM ADVECTION WRAP              
AROUND PRECIP BY SATURDAY AS UPR LOW SINKS SOUTH. STILL HAVE                    
QUESTIONS ABOUT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST FRIDAY INTO                   
SATURDAY. THINKING MODELS MAY BE UNDERDOING DEVELOPMENT GIVEN SUCH A            
STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND INCREASED BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE COAST.                
WILL RUN WITH THE IDEA OF A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM...WHICH IN CONTRAST             
TO STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH IS LIKELY TO CREATE SOME RATHER                 
GUSTY WINDS ACRS THE PIEDMONT FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS              
ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO GO NOWHERE (BUT DOWN IN THE AFTN) WITH STRONG               
COLD ADVECTION...CLOUDS...AND LIKELY OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGHS TO COME             
EARLY FOR MANY AREAS AND HAVE FOLLOWED MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS             
REASONABLE IN THIS SITUATION. OTHERWISE CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL               
FOR SATURDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING OVR THE EAST. SYSTEM FINALLY                 
LOOKS TO GIVE UP ITS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WX BY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH               
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND                  
COOLER TEMPS IN PLACE.                                                          
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                          
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY MONDAY AS STUBBORN UPR LOW                
BEGINS TO FILL AND GETS SHUNTED FARTHER EAST GIVEN APPROACHING                  
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY ON                  
MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT TO THE WEST FINALLY FOLDS OVER INTO              
THE REGION. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHING ON LATE                     
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT ACRS THE                      
REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE TO WORK                
WITH GIVEN RIDGING ACRS THE GULF...WILL HOLD ONTO A DRY FCST.                   
PATTERN THEN BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BY THE            
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPING INTO THE               
GULF OF ALASKA HELPS CARVE OUT DEEPENING UPR TROUGH ACRS THE CENTRAL            
CONUS. WHILE SPECIFICS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF TROUGHING                    
CERTAINLY FAR FROM SET IN STONE...OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST ONE             
OF BUILDING HEIGHTS ACRS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A                    
TRANSITION TO DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY. NOT YET READY              
TO ACCEPT THE EXTREMELY DEEP SYSTEM OVR THE NORTHERN PLAINS                     
SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS             
SUGGEST A LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.               
&&                                                                              
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AMS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   va