AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
358 AM MDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...CONCERNS TODAY AGAIN INVOLVE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND SEVERE               
WEATHER THREAT...                                                               
TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SAN LUIS                
VALLEY AGAIN TODAY.  RHS WILL BE LOW AGAIN...BUT WINDS WILL AGAIN               
LIKELY END UP A LITTLE SHORT OF THE MARK.  SO...NO HIGHLIGHT AT THIS            
TIME.  REGARDLESS...FUELS REMAIN CRITICAL AND CONDITIONS VERY                   
DRY...SO THE OVERALL FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH UNTIL WE GET SOME             
RELIEF IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  A HIGH LEVEL OF CAUTION NEEDS TO                   
CONTINUE.                                                                       
SEVERE WEATHER COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS              
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MOIST INFLOW FROM STORMS LAST EVENING HAVE             
MANAGED TO PUMP SOME PRETTY JUICY AIR UP THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY              
THIS MORNING...WITH KLAA SHOWING A 61 DEWPOINT...KLHX A 55 DEWPOINT             
AND KPUB A 50 DEGREE DEWPOINT.  DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN               
ALONG THE PALMER/RATON RIDGES ARE IN THE MID 40S. SURFACE                       
OBSERVATIONS AND LAPS ANALYSES INDICATE WINDS ARE SHOOTING RIGHT UP             
THE ARKANSAS VALLEY...CONTINUING TO PUSH MOISTURE WESTWARD AT THIS              
TIME.                                                                           
PROJECTIONS FROM THE 06Z NAM12 RUN...HAVE LIFTED INDICES AT -6C OR              
BELOW OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 21Z...WITH CAPES RANGING             
FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG WEST TO AROUND 3000 J/KG EAST.  ALL OF THESE              
NUMBERS ARE IMPRESSIVE.  NOW ALL WE NEED IS A SHORTWAVE.  0925Z                 
WATER VAPOR PICTURES HAVE ONE.  A FAINT BUT CLEAR JETSTREAK CAN BE              
SEEN RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF ARIZONA TO THE NORTHEAST              
CORNER.  STREAK ALIGNS WITH A 50-60KT JET MAX IN THE RUC80 300MB                
WINDSPEED FIELD.  NAM12 PROJECTIONS TAKE THE AXIS OF THIS JETSTREAK             
RIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  STREAK                
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK (ONLY ABOUT 50KTS AT THE CORE) BUT IT COULD BE A              
SUFFICIENT TRIGGER TO GET THINGS POPPING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.                
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/CAPE...WHEN THINGS DO START TO                
POP...THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR             
IS ONLY PROJECTED AT 35-40KTS...SO ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE            
STORMS...BELIEVE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO THE            
SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.  COULD BE ENOUGH               
ROTATION FOR TORNADOES...TOO...BUT PROBABLY A LESSER THREAT THAN THE            
LARGE HAIL OR STRAIGHT LINE THUNDERSTORM WINDS.                                 
PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY SHOULD RUN FROM 2PM TO                  
9PM...WITH THE THUNDERSTORM WINDOW RUNNING FROM 11AM TO 2AM.                    
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE I-25                    
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE SUBJECT TO                
THUNDERSTORMS. LW                                                               
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)                                                        
...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH FIRE              
WEATHER CONCERNS ON THURSDAY...                                                 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE               
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS WILL HANG ON FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER                 
DAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE              
FORECAST AREA...AND DELAY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL                     
THURSDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...SO TOOK              
THE PLUNGE AND PULLED POPS TOTALLY SINCE MOISTURE IS LACKING UP                 
THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUNDING. FOR WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED DIURNAL                   
CONVECTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SAN LUIS                   
VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR               
PCPN ALONG THE CONTDVD BY THE AFTN. BOTH DAYS LOOK TO HAVE MAX TEMPS            
PUSHING 100 F OVER THE E PLAINS.                                                
THURSDAY...ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA...BUT FINALLY THE              
RIDGE SHOULD START BREAKING DOWN TOWARDS THE SE...ALLOWING STRONGER             
SW FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND INTO COLORADO. IF                
THIS SOLUTION PERSISTS...THEN THURSDAY WILL BE THREATENED WITH                  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GFS MODEL SHOWS SOME AVAILABLE                
MOISTURE...SO KEPT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.                                 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTION IS A BIT MUDDLED FOR THE OUT             
PERIODS...WITH SOME SORT OF UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION            
FRIDAY...THEN THE UPPER FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL. REGARDLESS...DO NOT            
SEE MUCH HOPE FOR A BREAK FROM THE ONGOING HOT AND DRY PATTERN...               
WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE                 
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
50/27                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
912 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...RECENT SATELLITE AND SFC OBS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT              
ALBERTO HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...TRANSITIONED INTO A HYBRID                 
SYSTEM. SAT PIX SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN              
NE OF THE SYSTEM...NEARLY LINEAR CONVECTION OVER THE SE GOMEX...AND             
A DRY SLOT PUNCHING WELL INTO THE SE QUADRANT OF THE STORM. 400MB               
RUC INITIALIZATION INDICATES A TIGHTENING LOW NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP               
OF THE SFC FEATURE.                                                             
AS A RESULT...PRECIP FIELD ACROSS MOST OF OUR FL ZONES RESEMBLES                
A PATTERN TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH OVERRUNNING OR ISENTROPIC LIFT.             
GENERALLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN COVERS MOST            
OF NE FL...WITH MORE WARM SECTOR TYPE CONVECTION S OF THE AREA. AS              
THE PRECIP FIELD SLOWLY LIFTS N AND NE...A BIT MORE CONVECTION IS               
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE S ZONES...BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...           
DON'T EXPECT THIS TO BE TOO STRONG. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR ISOLD            
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN THIS ACTIVITY. MAY SEE OUR WORST WX DURING THE           
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUE AS DRY SLOT ALLOWS SUN TO BREAK OUT AND GET               
MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION FIRING IN A CONTINUING HIGH SHEAR                       
ENVIRONMENT.                                                                    
FOR THE UPDATE...WILL ADJUST POPS WITH START TIMES A BIT LATER OVER             
N ZONES. MAY ALSO CUT DOWN POPS SOME OVER THE EXTREME S AS PRECIP               
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WILL ALSO TONE DOWN WIND WORDING A            
BIT.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...MOST OF THE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS ARE ABOVE THE SFC             
AND BEING MEASURED AT THE HIGHER SENSORS. FOR THE UPDATE...WILL                 
INDICATE MORE OF AN INCREASING TREND IN WINDS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE               
CHANGE.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                     
     ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...                    
     FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...               
     ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.                                           
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                            
     DUVAL...FLAGLER...NASSAU...AND ST JOHNS.                                   
GA...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                     
     APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...CAMDEN...CHARLTON...               
     CLINCH...COFFEE...ECHOLS...GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...                  
     WARE...AND WAYNE.                                                          
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                            
     CAMDEN AND GLYNN.                                                          
AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:                            
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CARROLL/ZIBURA/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1054 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RECENTLY SENT UPDATE MAINLY TO FINESSE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION                 
WORDING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL                
VAD WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK MCV FROM WESTERN KS                  
INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE                  
DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN SYNOPTIC               
FRONT WAS LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE TX                       
PANHANDLE ACROSS OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY POOL IN THE MID-               
UPPER 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN KS. AS THE MCV MOVES                   
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THRU THIS PM...CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP                
SOME UNDERNEATH THE MCV TRACK OVER ALL BUT PERHAPS THE NORTHERN                 
PART OF THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE                   
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...AREAS OF SOME SUN/HEATING                    
LIKELY UNDERNEATH MCV PATH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCATTERED               
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY                
EVENING HRS WITH PROBABLY THE GREATER COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHERN                  
COUNTIES. CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR MAY EXIST                
TO SUPPORT A FEW PULSE TYPE STORMS APPROACHING SEVERE                           
LIMITS...WITH INTENSE DOWNPOURS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW STORM                 
MOVEMENT.                                                                       
JMC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/                         
UPDATE...                                                                       
WE ARE SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE                 
MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE             
MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ON DUE EASTERLY              
UPSLOPE FLOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE MAX TEMPERATURES                
THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS LINGER.                                          
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A               
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV) STARTING TO APPROACH DODGE                 
CITY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST IN TRACKING THIS MCV...BUT              
IT IS ABOUT THREE HOURS BEHIND. THE RUC ALSO APPEARS TO BE                      
STRUGGLING WITH IDENTIFYING THIS FEATURE...BUT THEY ARE BOTH KEYING             
ARE GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 305              
AND 310K. THERE IS DECENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHICH              
MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY               
RAINFALL DUE TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5KM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE AND AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA TO              
WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY. VAD WIND PROFILES (VWP)FROM WICHITA AND VANCE            
AIR FORCE BASE ARE ALSO SHOWING THE FIRST TWO GATES OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE STORMS TO REGENERATE FURTHER                
WEST. RUC SHOWS THE CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE                     
SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                  
TOWARDS 12Z I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MCV TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO                
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY TEND TO BRING A LITTLE MORE                      
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW                
LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THIS              
FEATURE. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS               
TIME DUE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND A VERY NARROW AREA             
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST                  
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY                
ACTUALLY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.                      
INSTABILITY IS QUITE A BIT LOWER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE...I             
WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE STORMS.                                         
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING:                                                        
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS            
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A BETTER            
JOB ON INITIALIZING ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER LOOKING AT THE              
RAOBS. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER WEST THAN THE            
NAM...BUT WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND               
JUST MENTION A CHANCE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION               
COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE VERY LOW 800MB CONVECTIVE                 
INHIBITION VALUES AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 310 AND               
315K. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL...WHICH                
WOULD PUT A LIMIT ON TEMPERATURES. WE ARE NOT GOING TO FIDDLE WITH              
TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT UNTIL THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.                       
TUESDAY-SATURDAY:                                                               
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION             
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER TO RETURN. WE DID REMOVE                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY                
NIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS DUE TO THE GFS/ECMWF BEING RATHER                
CONSISTENT IN ITS TRENDS TO BUILD THE CAP OVER THE AREA. WE DID NOT             
MAKE MANY CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT WE COULD END UP                   
TWEAKING TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY IN                 
CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO                   
FLATTEN OUT.                                                                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    84  63  90  66 /  40  10  10   5                                
HUTCHINSON      84  63  91  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          84  62  89  66 /  40  10   5   5                                
ELDORADO        83  62  89  65 /  40  10   5   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  64  90  65 /  40  10   5   5                                
RUSSELL         83  64  92  66 /  20  20  20  10                                
GREAT BEND      84  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  10                                
SALINA          83  61  89  66 /  20  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       83  62  90  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  87  64 /  30  20   5   5                                
CHANUTE         82  62  86  64 /  20  10   5   5                                
IOLA            81  61  86  64 /  20  10   5   5                                
PARSONS-KPPF    83  62  86  64 /  20  20   5   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
606 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WE ARE SENDING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER THROUGH THE                 
MORNING. IT APPEARS LIKE THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE                     
RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN               
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD                
CONTINUE TO PROPOGATE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE             
MORNING. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO HOLD ON DUE EASTERLY              
UPSLOPE FLOW. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE MAX TEMPERATURES                
THIS AFTERNOON IF THESE CLOUDS LINGER.                                          
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS TODAY AND THEN THE CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR                  
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
TODAY:                                                                          
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP/PROFILERS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING A               
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT LOBE (MCV) STARTING TO APPROACH DODGE                 
CITY. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE THE CLOSEST IN TRACKING THIS MCV...BUT              
IT IS ABOUT THREE HOURS BEHIND. THE RUC ALSO APPEARS TO BE                      
STRUGGLING WITH IDENTIFYING THIS FEATURE...BUT THEY ARE BOTH KEYING             
ARE GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BETWEEN 305              
AND 310K. THERE IS DECENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR IN THIS REGION WHICH              
MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL HAIL...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY               
RAINFALL DUE TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5KM...WEAK UPPER LEVEL               
DIVERGENCE AND AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR WICHITA TO              
WESTERN PAWNEE COUNTY. VAD WIND PROFILES (VWP)FROM WICHITA AND VANCE            
AIR FORCE BASE ARE ALSO SHOWING THE FIRST TWO GATES OUT OF THE                  
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE STORMS TO REGENERATE FURTHER                
WEST. RUC SHOWS THE CORFIDI VECTORS CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE                     
SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.                  
TOWARDS 12Z I WOULD ANTICIPATE THE MCV TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO                
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY TEND TO BRING A LITTLE MORE                      
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW                
LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO THIS              
FEATURE. WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON ISSUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS               
TIME DUE TO HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND A VERY NARROW AREA             
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST                  
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. IT MAY                
ACTUALLY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THAT REGION.                      
INSTABILITY IS QUITE A BIT LOWER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE...I             
WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE STORMS.                                         
TONIGHT-TUESDAY MORNING:                                                        
THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS            
CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A BETTER            
JOB ON INITIALIZING ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER LOOKING AT THE              
RAOBS. IT ACTUALLY BRINGS THE INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER WEST THAN THE            
NAM...BUT WE ARE GOING TO PLAY THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW AND               
JUST MENTION A CHANCE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION               
COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE VERY LOW 800MB CONVECTIVE                 
INHIBITION VALUES AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT BETWEEN 310 AND               
315K. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AS WELL...WHICH                
WOULD PUT A LIMIT ON TEMPERATURES. WE ARE NOT GOING TO FIDDLE WITH              
TEMPERATURES AT THE MOMENT UNTIL THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.                       
TUESDAY-SATURDAY:                                                               
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION             
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SUMMERTIME WEATHER TO RETURN. WE DID REMOVE                
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY                
NIGHT. THE REASON FOR THIS WAS DUE TO THE GFS/ECMWF BEING RATHER                
CONSISTENT IN ITS TRENDS TO BUILD THE CAP OVER THE AREA. WE DID NOT             
MAKE MANY CHANGES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT WE COULD END UP                   
TWEAKING TEMPERATURES UP TOWARDS THE CENTURY MARK ESPECIALLY IN                 
CENTRAL KANSAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK IF THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO                   
FLATTEN OUT.                                                                    
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    84  63  90  66 /  40  10  10   5                                
HUTCHINSON      84  63  91  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
NEWTON          84  62  89  66 /  40  10   5   5                                
ELDORADO        83  62  89  65 /  40  10   5   5                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  64  90  65 /  40  10   5   5                                
RUSSELL         83  64  92  66 /  20  20  20  10                                
GREAT BEND      84  64  92  65 /  20  20  20  10                                
SALINA          83  61  89  66 /  20  10  10  10                                
MCPHERSON       83  62  90  66 /  30  10  10  10                                
COFFEYVILLE     84  63  87  64 /  30  20   5   5                                
CHANUTE         82  62  86  64 /  20  10   5   5                                
IOLA            81  61  86  64 /  20  10   5   5                                
PARSONS-KPPF    83  62  86  64 /  20  20   5   5                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
320 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANT GUST FRONT FROM THE MORNING OK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MAKE             
GOOD PROGRESS S/SE ACROSS N TX...EXTREME NW MCCURTAIN CO IN SE                  
OK...INTO W AR...AND HAS SPARKED WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER               
PORTIONS OF NW AR. BUT 19Z LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CAP/CIN             
CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF NE TX...BUT SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING            
TREND FARTHER N ACROSS MCCURTAIN CO INTO ADJACENT SW AR...WHERE                 
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. QUICK 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO          
INDICATES THE WEAK COLD FRONT UNAFFECTED BY THE GUST FRONT EXTENDING            
E-W ACROSS CENTRAL AR...FROM NEAR HOT...TO PBF INTO CENTRAL                     
MS/AL...ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR REMAINS SOME 200-300 MILES BEHIND THE                
FRONT. WATER VAPOR LOOP OVERLAYED WITH RUC 250MB WINDS CONTINUES TO             
SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER N OK TRAVERSING SE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE            
STILL HOLDING FIRM ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THIS             
DISTURBANCE SLIPPING SE AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SE OK/NE TX THIS                  
EVENING. WILL BUMP UP POPS A TAD FOR NW ZONES TONIGHT BASED ON                  
DECREASING STABILITY TRENDS...AND MAINTAIN ISOLATED POPS FOR PORTIONS           
OF EXTREME NE TX FOR THIS EVENING ONLY...AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LOST            
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. PROGS ALSO IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED           
CONVECTION IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/W OK        
OVERNIGHT IN VC OF A SOUTHERLY LLJ...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD              
WORK THEIR WAY SE INTO THE NW ZONES OVERNIGHT.                                  
HAVE ADDED LOW POPS FOR E TX/SW AR/W LA TUESDAY AS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL        
SHIFT S ACROSS THESE AREAS. CURRENT COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR SW INTO            
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT/TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH LOWER DEWPOINTS/DRIER AIR          
WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SW. NOT SURE EXACTLY HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER             
FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS...ALTHOUGH 1000-500MB               
THICKNESSES ARE SOME 40-50M LOWER TUESDAY THAN TODAY...IMPLYING TEMPS           
WILL BE SOME 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER. WILL SIDE TEMP FORECAST A TAD               
ABOVE GUIDANCE AS DRY AIR WILL BE QUICK TO WARM. OTHERWISE...SKIES              
WILL BE QUICK TO CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS                
CONTINUES TO WORK SW INTO THE AREA...AND REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL               
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA.                   
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE W COAST...WILL COME ASHORE TUESDAY            
BEFORE LIFTING NE AND GRADUALLY FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE BY                   
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS ID/MT. THIS WILL FORCE THE           
RIDGE AXIS EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH                                   
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS WARMING BACK TO TO AT LEAST THE            
MID 90S. HOWEVER...FORECAST DIFFICULTIES ARISE THEREAFTER FOR THE               
START OF THE WEEKEND AS A FEW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK CUT           
OFF LOW FORMING OVER E MX...POSSIBLY RIDING NNE THIS WEEKEND ALONG A            
SHEAR AXIS THAT WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING                   
RIDGE/APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...THIS WILL             
INDUCE SOME MUCH NEEDED SEABREEZE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF          
THE AREA. HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 TO ACCOUNT       
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR WEAK                 
FEATURES LIKE THIS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHOULD THIS NOT VERIFY...WE           
MAY BE LEFT BAKING IN THE HOT JUNE SUN FOR QUITE A WHILE LONGER...AS            
THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT/ZONAL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/N           
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES.                                                             
PRELIMS ARE NEXT...                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  72  93  67  92 /   0  10   0   0                                           
MLU  69  90  64  92 /   0   0   0   0                                           
DEQ  66  91  62  91 /  20  10   0   0                                           
TXK  71  92  65  92 /  10  10   0   0                                           
ELD  67  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0                                           
TYR  72  94  68  94 /  10  20   0   0                                           
GGG  71  94  65  93 /  10  20   0   0                                           
LFK  67  94  66  94 /   0  20  10   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
15                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS PCPN POTENTIAL TUE.                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF ALONG THE W                    
COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AND A TROF OVER THE NE STATES.             
JUST N OF THE RIDGE...A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED OVER SCNTRL              
CANADA. ONE IS OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE OTHER (WHICH WILL PLAY A                
ROLE IN THE WEATHER HERE TUE) IS OVER WRN MANITOBA. CLOSER TO                   
HOME...STRATOCU DECK WHICH SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA LAST               
NIGHT/THIS MORNING IS EDGING S THIS AFTN. BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN                 
CLOUD DECK RUNS FROM ABOUT KERY TO KIMT AS OF 1930Z. PLENTY OF                  
SUNSHINE IS NOTED OVER W AND PART OF NCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSE TO LAKE              
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE BREEZE COOLING HAS INHIBITED DIURNAL CU                     
DEVELOPMENT.                                                                    
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING MANITOBA SHORTWAVE SE INTO               
WI/UPPER MI ON TUE. SOME SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN OVER WRN                 
ONTARIO AHEAD OF WAVE. THIS AREA OF PCPN IS DEVELOPING IN A WEAK                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME NOTED ON THE 300K SFC. GFS/NAM TAKE THIS               
WEAK ASCENT SE INTO WRN UPPER MI TOWARD 12Z TUE ALONG WITH                      
CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS UNDER 10MB. GOING FCST HAS THIS COVERED              
WELL WITH LOW END POPS SPREADING INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE IN THE              
NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NO                
GREATER THAN 6C/KM AND ESSENTIALLY NO ELEVATED CAPE. WILL REMOVE ANY            
THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SEVERAL HRS OF            
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID              
40S PER GOING FCST.                                                             
AS SHORTWAVE DROPS OVER UPPER MI/WI ON TUE...WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR            
CONVERGENCE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. ALSO...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST                
HALF OF THE DAY...80KT UPPER JET DROPPING SE THRU MN/WI WILL PLACE              
LEFT EXIT REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI...                
AIDING SHRA DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED BUMPING POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER              
THE W HALF...BUT THE LACK OF WIDEPSREAD PCPN UPSTREAM WITH SYSTEM               
TODAY ARGUES FOR HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHC POPS ATTM.             
WILL TREND POPS FROM 50 W TO 30 E. AS FOR THUNDER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE              
RATES EDGE UP TO AROUND 6.5C/KM AND SHOWALTER INDEX FALLS TO NEAR               
ZERO. AS WITH THE FORCING...THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AT              
LEAST A POTENTIAL OF THUNDER OCCUR OVER WRN UPPER MI. DEPENDING ON              
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION MAY FIRE LATE MORNING            
THRU THE AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH...THUNDER POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL.                
AS SHORTWAVE HEADS SE TUE NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA WILL END.                 
HOWEVER...IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS TO END ALL THE PCPN SINCE THERE              
ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE TO THE UPPER            
LAKES DURING THE NIGHT. GFS HINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WILL             
END ALL PCPN BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY              
WEAK FORCING AT BEST ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE. COULD HAVE FOG             
PROBLEMS LATE TUE NIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH FOR A WHILE AS WINDS              
BECOME LIGHT/CALM. AT THE MOMENT...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL                       
DOMINATE...PREVENTING FOG ISSUES.                                               
ASSUMING THE WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT             
PASSES S EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY WED...PCPN WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WED            
THRU THU AS PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TOWARD THE WRN GREAT             
LAKES. LAKE BREEZES WILL DOMINATE WED AS SFC HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER             
THE UPPER LAKES. SAME IS TRUE THU...THOUGH WITH HIGH SLIPPING TO THE            
SE...LAKE BREEZE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HAVE MORE OF AN ERLY                   
COMPONENT.                                                                      
FRI THRU MON...PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALREADY BE WELL UNDERWAY PRIOR TO            
THE START OF THIS PERIOD AS RECENT PERSISTENT ERN TROF GIVES WAY TO             
A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. PRONOUNCED RIDGE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL                
NAMERICA MIDWEEK WILL BE SUPPRESSED LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS               
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SUPPRESSION IS A RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE             
TRACKING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WHICH IS THEN FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW              
ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURGE OF WARM/HOT            
AIR ON LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE PROVIDES A DECENT                       
OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION FRI...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE            
THU NIGHT OVER THE W. FCST IS THEN MORE UNCERTAIN SAT THRU MON AS               
UPPER MI WILL BE INLINE FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY MOVING THRU THE            
ZONAL JET SITUATED ROUGHLY OVER THE U.S./CANADA BORDER. ALTHOUGH DRY            
PERIODS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON EXPLICIT MODEL               
OUTPUT...THE UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING THE SHORTWAVES (WHICH WILL CHANGE            
FROM RUN-TO-RUN) IN THE FAST FLOW SUGGESTS LOW CHC POPS ARE                     
WARRANTED PER GOING FCST. DO NOT EXPECT THE DETAILS/TIMING OF PCPN              
CHANCES TO BE SORTED OUT FOR POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DAYS. PATTERN COULD            
YIELD SVR TSTM EPISODES FOR UPPER MI...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS             
THE HUMID/MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONDUCIVE FOR SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN            
S AND SW OF UPPER MI THRU EARLY NEXT. AS FOR TEMPS...ALTHOUGH ONE               
HOT DAY IS POSSIBLE...WILL STRAY AWAY FROM THE INDICATIONS OF HOT               
WEATHER PER 00Z ECMWF (850MB TEMPS OF 20-24C OVER THE WEEKEND) AS               
THIS RUN WAS A GOOD 4-7C HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS RUN. THE PREVIOUS RUN             
(12Z/11JUNE) WAS MUCH MORE INLINE WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN AND RECENT              
GFS RUNS. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE A WARMER PERIOD MORE TYPICAL OF              
SUMMER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM LOCAL COOLING              
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1101 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER GREAT               
LAKES AND A RIDGE WHICH STRETCHES FROM IOWA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL              
QUEBEC. A BROAD RIDGE BLANKETS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS.             
TO THE WEST A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST. WEAK              
SHORTWAVES NAVIGATING THROUGH THE RIDGE ARE MOVING THROUGH THE                  
WESTERN U.P...EASTERN U.P...LOWER MICHIGAN...AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.             
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS            
INDICATE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER                
GREAT LAKES INTO IOWA. A WEAK LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN WINNIPEG...WHILE             
A COLD FRONT RUNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. A 1000MB LOW IS OVER              
NEW BRUNSWICK. A CLOUD DECK IS OVER THE U.P. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE            
850MB LAYER AND AREA STRONGEST 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT.                          
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN U.P. WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN U.P. AND                
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER WISCONSIN            
AND THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE             
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE U.P. WHERE 850MB RH WILL BE AROUND 95 PERCENT.            
MODELS SHOWING FAIRLY DRY BELOW 900MB. THUS IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS              
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON...              
WHILE INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE AREA. IF ANY            
PRECIPITATION OCCUR...IT SHOULD EVAPORATE AS IT DESCEND THROUGH THE             
THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. TRAJECTORY FORECAST INDICATE THE AIR MASS OVER            
CENTRAL ONTARIO YESTERDAY WILL REACH THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON.                   
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO              
AROUND 70 THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES              
DOWN A BIT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS                    
AFTERNOON. PLAN TO UPDATE TO TWEAK THE WORDING.                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1035 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL                   
ONTARIO AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS MORNING. VSBL SATELLITE AND             
SURFACE OBS INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS UPPER                
MICHIGAN...WITH ADDITION DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING OVER FAR NRN AND NE              
LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA IS              
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING            
SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. DRIER AIR OVER THE WRN TWO-THIRDS OF LAKE            
SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.            
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MIXING                  
DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL AID IN PARTIALLY DISSIPATING THE OVC DECK             
ACROSS NRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. STILL THINK THE OVERALL                 
FLAVOR OF THE AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE INTO PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE ENTIRE            
CWA WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND SOME DIURNAL              
CU DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.               
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON.            
OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS AND              
MODEL DATA.                                                                     
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 347 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                            
DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS...IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW                
OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOUR.                       
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NE OVER THE                  
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO HANG               
OUT OVER THE PACIFIC COAST.  SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN...CLOSED LOW OVER            
SASKATCHEWAN IS TRYING TO FLATTEN A RIDGE OVER ONTARIO AND THE                  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS               
EMANATING FROM THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES             
TO DROP SOUTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER AT THE MOMENT WITH ANOTHER WAVE               
SKIRTING THE LAKES OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...BOTH WITH ONLY SCT                   
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...               
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER ONTARIO/WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND A WEAK               
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM GEORGIAN BAY OVER FAR WESTERN LAKE                   
SUPERIOR. NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS/STRATO-             
CU IS SLOWLY DRIFTING S/SW...BUT SIGNS OF PRECIP HAVE BEEN WELL TO              
THE NE OVER ONTARIO.  AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES SOUTH...MAIN                   
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER TODAY.                 
TODAY...NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN                 
LOWER TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...AS THE             
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SWINGS OVER THE CWA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.                 
HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH OF ABOUT 5-6C AT            
18Z (WARMING TO 7-8C BY 00Z) HANGING OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION...              
1000-700MB RH LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 75% OVER MOST NORTHERN LOWER                  
THROUGH 18Z BEFORE DRIER AIR (RH FALLING < 60%) IS ADVECTED                     
SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD                  
SHIELD TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND OVERTAKE MOST OF EASTERN               
UPPER AND NE LOWER BY 12Z...WITH THE REMAINING AREAS HAVING A                   
STRATO-CU FIELD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN...AS 850MB TEMPS             
WARM AND DRIER WORKS SOUTHWARD...CAN SEE THE CLOUD COVER ERODED BY              
MIXING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  MIXING            
TO 850MB...TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD WARM UP CLOSE TO 70...EXCEPT               
NEAR THE LAKES SHORES...WHERE LAKE BREEZES SHOULD KICK IN AGAIN THIS            
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
MPC                                                                             
LATER PERIODS...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE IN N CENTRAL CANADA WAS                     
EXTENDING RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS                 
MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WAS IN SASKATCHEWAN...CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE            
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE LOW WILL GET SHEARED APART BUT STILL SEND             
A REASONABLY VIGOROUS (BUT MOISTURE-STARVED) SHORTWAVE INTO THE                 
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS IS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP...             
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MORE EMPHATICALLY FROM THE NW.                   
MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS MORE VIGOROUS WITH A PAIR OF                           
SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE KICKER                  
ARRIVING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM DIGS THESE WAVES A BIT                     
MORE...KEEPING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT TO OUR WEST AND                  
SOUTH. THIS IS A NEAT FLIP-FLOP FROM THE 12Z RUNS. MODELS APPEAR                
REASONABLY INITIALIZED...WITH NO OBVIOUS CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION.              
CANADIAN LEANS TOWARD THE NAM...NGM TOWARD THE GFS. WILL BLEND THE              
NAM/GFS.                                                                        
TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPSTREAM UPPER LOW MOVES TO                
JUST NORTH OF INL. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS SE ACROSS SUPERIOR AND              
TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS MAKES FOR ANOTHER TRICKY CLOUD                     
FORECAST. COULD STILL BE LINGERING STRATOCU EARLY IN THE EVENING IN             
THE SE ZONES...AS WELL AS NEAR THE TROF AXIS IN EASTERN UPPER MI AND            
GRAZING BY PRESQUE ISLE LT. YET AGAIN EXPECT CLOUD COVER NEAR THE               
BOUNDARY TO EXPAND DURING THE NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING PARTLY TO              
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BACK TO EASTERN UPPER...AND MAYBE AS FAR SW            
AS APN/PLN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOLISH BUT CONTINUE TO                  
MODERATE...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 40S.                                     
TUESDAY...UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE AS UPPER LOW FILLS AND            
COLD WATERS OF SUPERIOR INTERFERE. BUT RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY                
WILL LINGER...AND IS PROGGED BY THE NAM TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD               
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS NEAR 70...AND DEW            
POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S...WILL SUPPORT ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF               
CAPE (EVEN THE NAM HAS MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE ALL                 
SORTS OF BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS CONVECTION THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
SOUTH WHERE INCOMING TROF CAN INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZES AT MAX                 
HEATING. THUS BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING               
WILL BE IN THE S CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SE ZONES. COLLIDING LAKE                   
BREEZES COULD HELP GET THINGS GOING IN EASTERN UPPER MI. EARLIER                
FORECAST NOT UNREASONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WILL            
TWEAK WX GRIDS ONLY SLIGHTLY...MAINLY TO REMOVE PRECIP FROM                     
CHEBOYGAN TO ALPENA...WHERE LAKE-AUGMENTED NE FLOW WILL PRODUCE A               
MARINE ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE TO PRECIP. WILL ALSO REMOVE                    
THUNDER...AS INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT.                            
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE KICKER SHORTWAVE CAN               
SLIDE EASTWARD ENOUGH TO GIVE US SOME PRECIP. THE NAM SAYS NO                   
WAY...KEEPING THE AIRMASS DRY BELOW 750MB (THOUGH PLENTY OF CLOUDS              
ABOVE). THE GFS MIGHT ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO SCRAPE BY WESTERN              
CHIP/MACK AND THE SW ZONES. A COMPROMISE SOLUTION KEEPS US DRY AND              
IS IN LINE WITH EARLIER FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST AFTER            
MID-EVENING AND LOSS OF HEATING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL             
KEEP MIN TEMPS TRENDING UPWARD...MID 40S TO NEAR 50.                            
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES...                  
BRINGING QUIET WX AND INCREASED SUNSHINE TO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY              
AS KICKER WAVE DEPARTS TO THE SE). PLEASANT DAY WITH ABUNDANT LAKE              
BREEZES...AND MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE LOWER 70S.             
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE            
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY PERIOD. 00Z GFS CONTINUES EARLIER TREND OF                 
KNOCKING DOWN AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS...AND                
WOULD BRING SHOWERS/TSTORMS IN FROM WEST MAYBE AS SOON AS FRIDAY                
AFTERNOON. WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE ECMWF TREND THIS WAY BEFORE JUMPING            
ON THAT SOLUTION.                                                               
ZOLTOWSKI                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
645 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION...                                                         
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL THIS MORNING FOR THE KANSAS CITY AND SAINT                
JOSEPH TERMINAL SITES. COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE THICK                 
CIRRUS SHIELD ADVECTING FROM THE WEST WILL LIKELY LOCK THE STRATUS              
OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF THE                
YEAR. DESPITE THE HIGH SUN ANGLE...WE EXPECT 2500FT CEILINGS TO                 
PREVAIL THROUGH 16Z-18Z. PILOT REPORTS FROM KMKC SUGGEST THAT THE               
CLOUD LAYER IS ABOUT 2000FT THICK AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST              
WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE TODAY. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE OVER               
SOUTHERN IOWA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE             
FALLEN GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...BUT FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE               
NEEDED TO BREAK UP THE STATUS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI. CLOUD TOPS OVER            
SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING               
THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE LOW LEVEL JET.                 
850MB WIND FORECASTS FROM THE RUC FORECAST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF               
THE LOW LEVEL JET AFTER SUNRISE...SO THE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN                
KANSAS AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD DEBRIS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE BY LATE            
MORNING. SO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUN SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT BY            
LATE MORNING.                                                                   
KOCH                                                                            
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
400 AM...                                                                       
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WAS SQUASHED LATE LAST WEEK WONT BE KEPT DOWN             
AS IT SPRINGS BACK NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS                
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...                
WHICH MEANS SHORTWAVES AND/OR VORTICITY LOBES TOPPING THE RIDGE                 
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND TIME. PLUS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE                 
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING TOMORROW.                
FOR TODAY A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM MN INTO THE MID MO                 
RIVER VALLEY WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND EXPAND                 
SOUTHWARD A BIT. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A MORE EASTERLY LOW               
LEVEL FLOW INTO TUESDAY. STRATOCU FIELD HAS ALSO EXPANDED ACROSS ALL            
BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE CWA. ORDINARILY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD             
BREAK UP BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...LARGE UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE                    
COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS SENT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH              
CLOUDS EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MO. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW DOWN              
THE BREAK UP OF THE LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA              
HAS NOT COOLED OFF OVERNIGHT SO A WARMER START ANTICIPATED. SO                  
WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV NUMBERS.                                           
DRY AIRMASS COURTESY OF THE NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN            
SOMEWHAT COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEXT 2 NIGHTS. AS THE UPPER                
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD THIS WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL RETREAT TO               
THE EAST AND ALLOW THE HOT AIR TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK. HAVE ADDED                 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHWEST MO AND             
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION              
OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER                
RIDGE IS LOW. WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH TO SEE IF THE MODELS            
HAVE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.                                                     
MJ                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
400 PM...                                                                       
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS                   
AFTERNOON...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOW MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA.               
CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS FILLED IN             
WITH SC OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEEPER RAIN              
COOLED AIRMASS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING            
SOUTH...CURRENTLY LYING NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE                    
ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME UNSTABLE...RATHER FLAT             
APPEARANCE TO THE CUMULUS FIELD...IN ADDITION A RATHER STRONG                   
CAPPING INVERSION (+10C AT 700MB; +20C AT 850MB) WILL LIKELY                    
PRECLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...CARRIED            
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SRN CWA IN THE EVENT THE            
SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY CAN INFUSE SOME MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE               
THE CAPPING INVERSION.                                                          
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW IS THE FORECAST OF LOW CLOUDS              
ADVECTED TOWARDS NW MISSOURI FROM THE COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE WRN               
GREAT LAKES. NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW OVERCAST FORMING IN            
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY ARGUES SOMEWHAT AGAINST              
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK...DEEP SATURATED EASTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS SUCH            
A LOW CLOUD DECK FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS                   
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUD FORMATION...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS              
HINT THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM.                                                  
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BEGIN TO BREAK BY LATE MORNING/EARLY                 
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE...AND SURFACE HIGH                 
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. LIGHT BOUNDARY                 
LAYER WINDS AND CONTINUED COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING DEPTH            
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH BELOW              
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER             
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PUSHING TEMPERATURE BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL.           
21                                                                              
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON WEATHER             
PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE LAST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND NEXT            
WEEKEND. RIDGING ACTION TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS WEEK WILL GET BEAT               
DOWN BY SEVERAL EAST PACIFIC SHORTWAVES. THE END RESULT WILL BE THAT            
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK...AND             
BECOME A LITTLE LESS AMPLIFIED. WHILE THE WAVES CRESTING THE RIDGE              
WILL CAUSE SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AT THIS TIME              
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ENOUGH THAT ACTIVITY WILL STAY TO             
OUR NORTH. UNDER THE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB THIS WEEK. WITH              
850MB TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY THE END OF THE             
WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST            
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT THE              
FORECAST DRY...BUT BUMPED TEMPS SOME. EXPECT TO SEE SOME AREAS                  
HITTING 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY...WITH 90S SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF             
THE REGION BY FRIDAY.                                                           
CUTTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...NONE                                                                       
KS...NONE                                                                       
$$                                                                              
WFO EAX                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
925 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)...                                               
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THINNING CLD COVER ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN             
AREAS. HOURLY TEMP GRIDS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AS WELL. NO            
OTHER CHANGES.                                                                  
PREVIOUS DISC...                                                                
DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE              
REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE               
NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR               
RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO,               
AND ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD             
PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE            
FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND                      
EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR                
TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL              
DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS              
FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO             
OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS            
SE ZONES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)...                                                  
FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS              
THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW                  
DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY               
PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND              
PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING            
AN IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE                         
ABUNDANT...AND ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850              
MB TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD)             
ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS                
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (13/00Z TO 14/00Z)...                                                 
CLOUDS RAPIDLY THINNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NY AND PA. THIS IS IN            
ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MESOSCALE PROGS. GOING WITH THIS TREND WE ARE              
BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE MVFR SCU DECK OVER THE REGION.                  
HOWEVER BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z WE EXPECT ANOTHER MVFR DECK TO MOVE                   
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT TRANSPIRE WE WILL AMEND             
TAFS IN A FEW HOURS.                                                            
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH A SCU DECK AROUND 3000 FT MOST            
OF THE DAY.  DJP                                                                
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
740 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.AVIATION (13/00Z TO 14/00Z)...                                                 
CLOUDS RAPIDLY THINNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NY AND PA. THIS IS IN            
ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MESOSCALE PROGS. GOING WITH THIS TREND WE ARE              
BRINGING A TEMPORARY END TO THE MVFR SCU DECK OVER THE REGION.                  
HOWEVER BETWEEN 4Z AND 8Z WE EXPECT ANOTHER MVFR DECK TO MOVE                   
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. IF THIS DOES NOT TRANSPIRE WE WILL AMEND             
TAFS IN A FEW HOURS.                                                            
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY, WITH A SCU DECK AROUND 3000 FT MOST            
OF THE DAY.  DJP                                                                
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)...                                               
DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE              
REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE               
NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR               
RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO,               
AND ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD             
PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE            
FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND                      
EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR                
TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL              
DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS              
FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO             
OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS            
SE ZONES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)...                                                  
FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS              
THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW                  
DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY               
PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND              
PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING            
AN IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE                         
ABUNDANT...AND ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850              
MB TEMPS FCST TO CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD)             
ABOVE NORMAL. SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS                
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB                                   
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
215 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TNGT - WEDNESDAY)...                                               
DON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF CHG IN THE PTRN OVER THE NXT FEW DAYS. WE              
REMAIN UNDER A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED S/WV'S. MDLS HAVE               
NOT BEEN HANDLING THE LOW LVL MSTR WELL, WITH XCPTN OF THE 0-12HR               
RUC OUTPUT. SAT PIX SHOWS ALOT OF LOW CLDS UPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO, AND           
ALTHO WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME BREAKS TMRW, MOSTLY CLDY SKIES SHUD                 
PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE RGN. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE            
FOR MAXES THE PAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN CRNT UPSTREAM TEMPS AND                      
EXPECTATION OF BKN-OVC CLDS, WE LEANED TWDS THE COOLER FWC'S FOR                
TMRW AND EVEN SHAVED A FEW DEG OFF THEM (AREAS THAT REMAIN OVC ALL              
DAY WILL SEE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE M/U60S). STAYED WITH CHC POPS              
FOR WED AS MDLS SHOW A WEAK WAVE RIDING NE ALONG A SFC TROF JUST TO             
OUR SE, IN COMBINATION WITH A S/WV APRCHG FROM THE W. HIEST CHC POPS            
SE ZONES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (WED NITE - MON)...                                                  
FOLLOWED MAJORITY OF THE HPC GUIDANCE. MEAN ERN U.S. TROF PERSISTS              
THRU FRIDAY, THEN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SWLY FLOW                  
DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS IS A DRY               
PATTERN WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND              
PRE-FRONTAL TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN/CNTRL NY SUN-MON. ALSO EXPECTING AN         
IMPROVEMENT TO SKY COVER WITH SUNSHINE BECOMING MORE ABUNDANT...AND             
ALSO WARMER TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON. 850 MB TEMPS FCST TO            
CLIMB TO NEAR 20C BY MONDAY WHICH IS SLGHTLY (1SD) ABOVE NORMAL.                
SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERMIT GOOD MIXING AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL                
INTO THE 80S NEXT WEEKEND. -JAB                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12/18Z TO 13/18Z)...                                                 
ANOTHER TRICKY DAY IN THE FLIGHT ARENA. CIGS GRDLY LIFTING TO ABV VFR           
THIS AFTN WHERE THEY SHOULD REMAIN THRU 00-03Z. MODEL TRENDS THEN               
CONTINUE TO LIFT CLOUDS UP AND OUT OF THE REGION...BUT GUIDANCE HAS             
HAD A POOR HANDLE ON THE OVERALL SITUATION WITH PERSISTENT LLVL                 
INVERSION AND CYCLONIC FLOW/WEAK LIFT ABOVE. RUC MDL IS ABOUT THE               
ONLY ONE TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE TRAPPED MOISTURE TODAY...AND HOLDS             
IT OVER THE ARE INTO TONIGHT. WE SUSPECT THAT MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN              
TAKE HOLD AFT 04Z AND LINGER THRU 14Z TUESDAY... BEFORE AGAIN                   
LIFTING ABOVE VFR. WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED XPCTD IN A W-NWLY                   
DIRECTION 10 KTS OR LESS WITH NO DRAMATIC SHIFTS. -JAB                          
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
1017 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
DID A QUICK UPDATE EARLIER TO EXPIRE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM                    
WATCH. INSTABILITY HAS DECREASED AND SHIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD...                   
CLOSER TO A MESOLOW NOTED ON THE 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE                  
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. THE SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO THE                      
SANDHILLS... AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF                
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 925-850 MB TROUGH                
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL NC. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS MOIST                  
LAYER ONLY SLOWLY ERODING OVERNIGHT... AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS                   
STILL IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE                 
CWA... EXPECT THE CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT                     
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER               
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TRIAD AREA BUT WILL BE CAPPED OFF BY CIRRUS                
OUTFLOW FROM ALBERTO... AND A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS JUSTIFIED                  
THERE AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE TONIGHT... AND              
WILL FURTHER REDUCE POPS... PARTICULARLY THE THUNDER RISK... BUT                
NOT TOTALLY ELIMINATE THEM... CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE AND              
WITH ANOTHER LIKELY SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AS THE 500 MB TROUGH               
SWINGS BY TO OUR NORTH. FORECAST LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65 ARE                       
REASONABLE AND DON'T PLAN MUCH CHANGE THERE.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 (ISSUED 245 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006)                                            
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...                                  
EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CWA WILL                     
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN             
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MID LEVEL              
TROUGH ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE                  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.                                                         
SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS NORTH OF BOUNDARY...LIKELY POPS ALONG               
AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY.                                                          
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...               
NORTH/NORTHEAST. THUS EXPECT CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN              
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS                 
TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST.                                         
TUESDAY...                                                                      
ONLY A SMALL CHANCE SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHERN TIER EARLY MORNING.              
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS LOWER TO MID 80S.               
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                         
REMNANTS OF ALBERTO COMING INTO PLAY FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH                
GREATEST EFFECT (HIGHEST POPS) EASTERN CWA DURING WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM            
DIFFER ON HANDLING THE SYSTEM AS NAM MORE CONSISTENT WITH TPC TRACK.            
GFS DRIER AND EVOLVES INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH. POPS IN LINE WITH               
NAM SOLUTION. SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WESTERN            
CWA WILL BE THE WARMEST WITH LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.                     
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S WEST....UPPER 70S EAST WITH LIKELY                
POPS. DIMINISHING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.                       
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER. HIGHS                 
MID/UPPER 80S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.                                           
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                            
GENERALLY A DRY PERIOD. HPC GUIDANCE ACCEPTED WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS.            
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S...REACHING AROUND 90 BY THE END OF THE            
PERIOD.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST TAF SITES DROPPING              
FROM VFR TO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS              
THE AREA AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER SLOWLY DROPS              
SOUTH...LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCING VIS IN FOG AS MUCH COOLER AIR                
SLOWLY ADVANCES INTO WARM...MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH.                         
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
136 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 467                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 1041 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/                                           
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ANALYZED NORTH OF THE CWFA ON THE                
LATEST SURFACE CHART...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KGSP 88-D                      
REFLECTIVITIES STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL               
THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN DROPPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL              
APPALACHIANS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BEST CONVERGENCE TODAY                 
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA...AND IT REALLY IS NO SURPRISE                
THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF OUR                       
SOUTHEAST TIER AREAS TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE NOT AS CLEAR AS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MOST                
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE FEW                 
CLOUDS...SO THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE                
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK                  
SOUTHWARD. WE WARMED MAXES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS                 
THOSE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE                   
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF PER EXAMINATION               
OF THE GREENSBORO RAOB. AN 85H JET IS RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY                
ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; FIRST FEW FRAMES OF THE NEW 12Z NAM                  
WEAKENS WIND FIELDS QUITE A BIT OVER OUR CWFA AS THE BETTER                     
DYNAMICS AND FORCING SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...JUST TO THE NORTH                 
AND EAST OF OUR BORDERS. STILL...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UNSTABLE               
AIR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AGAIN TODAY. THE                     
INFILTRATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS ADDS              
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER INGRIEDIENT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS ALONG               
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 FOR INCLUSION IN A SEVERE WEATHER                    
OUTLOOK COINCIDENT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS MORNING UPDATE.                    
ASIDE FROM AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE SOUTH...WE                 
WARMED THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT A DEGREE OR TWO ALSO.               
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...ALONG THE TRACK THAT CELLS HAVE BEEN                 
FOLLOWING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG                      
EXIST...AND STILL A NUMBER OF CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN               
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST MAXES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR                 
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE KEPT AS IS...FOR NOW.               
AS FAR AS CHANGES TO OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WE BUMPED               
UP TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS...FROM CHARLOTTE AND                  
MONROE SOUTH TO CHESTER...LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. MODELS DO NOT                  
DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA OR THE                   
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND DESPITE THE FACT THE BEST DYNAMICS               
WILL BE TO THE NORTH...I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE PROBABILITIES FROM               
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA. WE THEREFORE                     
LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT FOR ALL OF OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST                     
AREAS...WITH POPS 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN.                           
PREV DISCUSSION...                                                              
 /ISSUED 340 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION WHILE LEVEL UPPER          
SPOKES OF ENERGY KEEP STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN/NC                     
BORDER. LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS AND              
MESHES WELL WITH GFS AFTER 12Z. THE UPPER H5 TROF WILL SWING OVER               
THE AREA TODAY...BUT AXIS WONT REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 00Z.            
THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOWS COLD FRONT AND RIDGING CAA THROUGH                 
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WAVE OVER               
THE UPSTATE WILL KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE               
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AFTER                  
20Z ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE                    
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE SKINNY AND                 
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA BECOMES A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED                  
UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.                                                     
REDUCED SURFACE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
MOST OF THE AREA AS MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS COME IN TOO                          
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXED SFC DEW                  
POINT IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE THE MOS HAS MID TO UPPER 60S. SKY                  
COVER WAS ADJUSTED DOWN TO COMPENSATE FOR INCREASING DRY AIR AND A              
TRANSITION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.                               
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY WARM AS WINDS SHIFT                 
TO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF TS ALBERTO. THE GFS WILL BE THE                  
MODEL OF CHOICE TO FOLLOW ALBERTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO FAR...IT                
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIP WILL HUNG THE COASTLINE WHILE A WELL                 
DEFINED SUBSIDENCE ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
WILL NOT EXPECT A MAJOR INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS TS               
ALBERTO SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY TROF AND QUICKLY PROPELLED                       
NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY                 
EVENING IN ALBERTO/S WAKE. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...HOWEVER A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING WILL ALLOW THURSDAYS                
MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                            
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NCEP CHOOSE TO FOLLOW THE 00 UTC         
OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST                  
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF GRADUALLY FILLING LONG WAVE TROUGH THU                 
AND FRI. THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OVER                 
THE SRN PLANS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS                      
CERTAINLY DOESN/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THERE ARE                 
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR DAY 7...BUT IF THE PATTERN                
EVOLVES CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...THE LATTER PERIODS WILL ALMOST                
CERTAINLY VERIFY WARMER AND DRIER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KAVL IF              
AT ALL. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL                
AROUND DAY BREAK FOR KAVL/KCLT. KGSP WILL SEE SOME MVFR FOG AS                  
WELL...BUT VERY DRY DEW POINTS AT KAND SHOULD KEEP THEM VFR. SHORT              
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM                
THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE CWFA TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH TODAY.                 
HOWEVER...MDLS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING               
AND INVASION OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY INCREASES              
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TAF SITES                
STILL HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THAN THE NORTH CAROLINA               
SITES. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE VCSH AND A CB DURING THE DAY OVER SC               
WITH VCTS FOR NC. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING TODAY...LOW VFR                
CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...ONLY KAVL HAS A LOW VFR                 
CEILING FOR NOW. FRONT PUSHES THRU BY LATE AFTERNOON ENDING                     
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SWINGING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO                      
NORTHERLY. SKIES CLEAR AS WELL INCREASING THE FOG POTENTIAL IF DRIER            
LOW LEVEL AIR IS SLOWER TO ENTER                                                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1041 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL ANALYZED NORTH OF THE CWFA ON THE                
LATEST SURFACE CHART...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND KGSP 88-D                      
REFLECTIVITIES STRONGLY SUGGEST THIS FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL               
THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE SEEN DROPPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL              
APPALACHIANS ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BEST CONVERGENCE TODAY                 
SHOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA...AND IT REALLY IS NO SURPRISE                
THAT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED MOST OF OUR                       
SOUTHEAST TIER AREAS TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.              
ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE NOT AS CLEAR AS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...MOST                
OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAVE FEW                 
CLOUDS...SO THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE                
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SINK                  
SOUTHWARD. WE WARMED MAXES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ACROSS                 
THOSE AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR IS STRONGEST IN THE                   
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF PER EXAMINATION               
OF THE GREENSBORO RAOB. AN 85H JET IS RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY                
ON THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; FIRST FEW FRAMES OF THE NEW 12Z NAM                  
WEAKENS WIND FIELDS QUITE A BIT OVER OUR CWFA AS THE BETTER                     
DYNAMICS AND FORCING SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST...JUST TO THE NORTH                 
AND EAST OF OUR BORDERS. STILL...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF UNSTABLE               
AIR FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AGAIN TODAY. THE                     
INFILTRATION OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER THE WATER VAPOR TRENDS ADDS              
ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER INGRIEDIENT. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS ALONG               
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 FOR INCLUSION IN A SEVERE WEATHER                    
OUTLOOK COINCIDENT WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS MORNING UPDATE.                    
ASIDE FROM AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE SOUTH...WE                 
WARMED THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT A DEGREE OR TWO ALSO.               
MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH...ALONG THE TRACK THAT CELLS HAVE BEEN                 
FOLLOWING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG                      
EXIST...AND STILL A NUMBER OF CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN               
ACROSS THOSE AREAS. CURRENT FORECAST MAXES IN THE LOWER 80S FOR                 
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BE KEPT AS IS...FOR NOW.               
AS FAR AS CHANGES TO OUR PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...WE BUMPED               
UP TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOST AREAS...FROM CHARLOTTE AND                  
MONROE SOUTH TO CHESTER...LAURENS AND GREENWOOD. MODELS DO NOT                  
DEVELOP MUCH CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA OR THE                   
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND DESPITE THE FACT THE BEST DYNAMICS               
WILL BE TO THE NORTH...I AM HESITANT TO REMOVE PROBABILITIES FROM               
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA. WE THEREFORE                     
LOWERED TO 30 PERCENT FOR ALL OF OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST                     
AREAS...WITH POPS 40 TO 50% FOR LOCATIONS IN BETWEEN.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 340 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006/                                            
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...                                   
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION WHILE LEVEL UPPER          
SPOKES OF ENERGY KEEP STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TN/NC                     
BORDER. LATEST RUC HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THE MASS FIELDS AND              
MESHES WELL WITH GFS AFTER 12Z. THE UPPER H5 TROF WILL SWING OVER               
THE AREA TODAY...BUT AXIS WONT REACH THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 00Z.            
THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE SHOWS COLD FRONT AND RIDGING CAA THROUGH                 
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BY 21Z. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WAVE OVER               
THE UPSTATE WILL KEEP BEST CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE               
MIDLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. SO...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS AFTER                  
20Z ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE                    
CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY AS SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE SKINNY AND                 
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWFA BECOMES A LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED                  
UNDER RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.                                                     
REDUCED SURFACE DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS                  
MOST OF THE AREA AS MOS GUIDANCE AGAIN HAS COME IN TOO                          
UNREALISTICALLY HIGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXED SFC DEW                  
POINT IN THE LOWER 60S WHILE THE MOS HAS MID TO UPPER 60S. SKY                  
COVER WAS ADJUSTED DOWN TO COMPENSATE FOR INCREASING DRY AIR AND A              
TRANSITION TO DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW THIS AFTERNOON.                               
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY WARM AS WINDS SHIFT                 
TO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF TS ALBERTO. THE GFS WILL BE THE                  
MODEL OF CHOICE TO FOLLOW ALBERTO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO FAR...IT                
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIP WILL HUNG THE COASTLINE WHILE A WELL                 
DEFINED SUBSIDENCE ZONE MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.                  
WILL NOT EXPECT A MAJOR INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS WEDNESDAY AS TS               
ALBERTO SHOULD BE PICKED UP BY TROF AND QUICKLY PROPELLED                       
NORTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY                 
EVENING IN ALBERTO/S WAKE. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS                     
SYSTEM...HOWEVER A DECENT THICKNESS PACKING WILL ALLOW THURSDAYS                
MIN TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.                            
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NCEP CHOOSE TO FOLLOW THE 00 UTC         
OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST                  
AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF GRADUALLY FILLING LONG WAVE TROUGH THU                 
AND FRI. THE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE OVER                 
THE SRN PLANS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. THIS                      
CERTAINLY DOESN/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THERE ARE                 
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR DAY 7...BUT IF THE PATTERN                
EVOLVES CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...THE LATTER PERIODS WILL ALMOST                
CERTAINLY VERIFY WARMER AND DRIER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KAVL IF              
AT ALL. OTHERWISE...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL                
AROUND DAY BREAK FOR KAVL/KCLT. KGSP WILL SEE SOME MVFR FOG AS                  
WELL...BUT VERY DRY DEW POINTS AT KAND SHOULD KEEP THEM VFR. SHORT              
WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA WILL FINALLY PUSH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM                
THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE CWFA TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH TODAY.                 
HOWEVER...MDLS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING               
AND INVASION OF THE DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. INSTABILITY INCREASES              
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...SOUTH CAROLINA TAF SITES                
STILL HAVE LESS OF A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THAN THE NORTH CAROLINA               
SITES. THEREFORE...ONLY HAVE VCSH AND A CB DURING THE DAY OVER SC               
WITH VCTS FOR NC. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND FORCING TODAY...LOW VFR                
CLOUD HEIGHTS ARE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...ONLY KAVL HAS A LOW VFR                 
CEILING FOR NOW. FRONT PUSHES THRU BY LATE AFTERNOON ENDING                     
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SWINGING THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO                      
NORTHERLY. SKIES CLEAR AS WELL INCREASING THE FOG POTENTIAL IF DRIER            
LOW LEVEL AIR IS SLOWER TO ENTER                                                
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SAB                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1230 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
TAFS A LITTLE TRICKIER TODAY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS              
BUT IMPACTS TO AVIATION SHOULD STILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE MOST PART.              
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST               
SOME HIGH CIRRUS POSSIBLE FROM ANVIL BLOWOFF FROM THE STORMS IN                 
OKLAHOMA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST              
TOMORROW MORNING WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST                
AROUND 11Z DFW/DAL/AFW/FTW AND AROUND 14Z ACT. WINDS ARE STILL                  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THIS WIND SHIFT AND WILL HARDLY            
BE FELT. AN MCS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH EAST TX/WEST LA IN             
THE MORNING HOURS. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STORM COMPLEX MAY CLIP THE              
METROPLEX BUT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...HAVE PLACED A                 
PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AT DFW AND DAL.                
OTHER SITES SHOULD BE OK WITH SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE            
MCS.  JLD/82                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE 1105 AM CDT...                                                          
MCS OVER KS AND OK IS BEING SUSTAINED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN OK. THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO               
WEAKEN AND BUILD S/SW TOWARDS REMAINING LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS                    
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TX. RUC/ETA/WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS                
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE REACHING               
NORTH TX. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS FOR TODAY.                 
MODELS ARE ALSO BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING PRECIP OVERNIGHT               
AND TOMORROW. MAY HAVE TO UP/EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.             
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DP/WIND/SKY GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE. /13           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
341 AM CDT                                                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS               
NORTH TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT                   
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE                
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE BRINGING               
A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD              
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT                  
ACROSS THE EAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND                   
SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE                      
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER TO THE                  
EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BY A                 
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW POPS AT THAT                
TIME TOO...HAVE JUST PLACED 10 PERCENTS WITH NO MENTION OF                      
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR NOW. #58                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  76  97  73 /   0  10  10  10                          
WACO, TX              98  71  99  71 /   0  10  20  10                          
PARIS, TX             97  71  92  68 /  10  20  10  10                          
DENTON, TX           101  73  97  70 /   0  10  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          98  72  95  68 /   0  10  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            98  77  98  75 /   0  10  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           98  73  97  71 /   0  10  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         99  71  97  72 /   0  10  20  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            96  69  98  72 /   0  10  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/58                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MCS OVER KS AND OK IS BEING SUSTAINED BY WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED IN SOUTHERN OK. THE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO               
WEAKEN AND BUILD S/SW TOWARDS REMAINING LLJ/INSTABILITY AXIS                    
EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL TX. RUC/ETA/WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS                
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE REACHING               
NORTH TX. THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS FOR TODAY.                 
MODELS ARE ALSO BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE CONCERNING PRECIP OVERNIGHT               
AND TOMORROW. MAY HAVE TO UP/EXPAND POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.             
HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO DP/WIND/SKY GRIDS FOR THE UPDATE. /13           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
600 AM CDT                                                                      
BR NOT A PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH P6SM T/TD SPREADS MOST AREAS.              
ST/SC OVER HILL COUNTRY VERY THIN...STRUGGLING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD.             
MAY FLIRT WITH KACT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS WITH ARRIVAL AFTER                 
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BACKING ESE. 25                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
341 AM CDT                                                                      
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS               
NORTH TEXAS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT                   
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE                
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE BRINGING               
A SHORTWAVE AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD              
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT                  
ACROSS THE EAST...A SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST AND                   
SOUTH. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE                      
WORKWEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER TO THE                  
EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING BY A                 
FEW DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW POPS AT THAT                
TIME TOO...HAVE JUST PLACED 10 PERCENTS WITH NO MENTION OF                      
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR NOW. #58                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  76  97  73 /   0  10  10  10                          
WACO, TX              98  71  99  71 /   0  10  20  10                          
PARIS, TX             97  71  92  68 /  10  20  10  10                          
DENTON, TX           101  73  97  70 /   0  10  10  10                          
MCKINNEY, TX          98  72  95  68 /   0  10  10  10                          
DALLAS, TX            98  77  98  75 /   0  10  10  10                          
TERRELL, TX           98  73  97  71 /   0  10  10  10                          
CORSICANA, TX         99  71  97  72 /   0  10  20  10                          
TEMPLE, TX            96  69  98  72 /   0  10  20  10                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/58                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
314 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE SHORT TERM              
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST                
AREA AND THEN THE POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND.                        
TODAY:                                                                          
WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN REASON IS DUE             
TO LACK OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE LATEST RUNS FROM THE GFS/RUC                  
WHICH INITIALIZED THE BEST DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT                  
AROUND 310K THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST FOG IMAGERY IS SHOWING               
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE VAD WIND PROFILERS             
ARE SHOWING GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWEST 4KFT.                  
HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER EAST IS A LITTLE DRIER                 
WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE STRATUS CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER            
ELEVATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. FURTHER EAST...I WOULD NOT ANTICIPATE            
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DUE TO LACK OF DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY                
LAYER. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE            
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE MIXING                  
POTENTIAL TODAY AND INCREASE THE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS. AS A               
RESULT...WE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                           
TONIGHT:                                                                        
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP CAMP ACROSS CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...                  
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY              
AT BEST...BUT IT MAY TURN INTO A MORE DEW DEPOSITION. WE WILL GO                
AHEAD AND INSERT SOME PATCHY FOG FOR NOW IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LET               
LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE. WE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF                 
DEGREES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.                      
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY:                                                             
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND ALLOW               
FOR THE LEE TROF TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE OUR             
WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS A                
PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE                    
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER ON THURSDAY            
WITH SOME OF OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE                  
CENTURY MARK AS THE FLOW TURNS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.                  
FRIDAY-MONDAY:                                                                  
THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF/UKMET ARE                   
SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY AND THEN             
PUSHING IT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST MODEL              
RUNS ARE SHOWING THE POSITION OF THIS LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TEXAS              
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THIS LOW              
WILL BE CRITICAL TO WHERE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE THIS                
WEEKEND. I WOULD RATHER NOT MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WITH                
REGARDS TO POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE UNTIL WE SEE MORE CONSISTENCY ON               
WHERE THIS CUTOFF LOW WILL END UP. WE DID BACK OFF ON TEMPERATURES A            
LITTLE BIT SINCE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE              
BREAKING DOWN.                                                                  
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  92  68 /   0   0   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      87  63  93  69 /   0   0   0   0                                
NEWTON          85  62  91  68 /   0   0   0   0                                
ELDORADO        85  62  90  67 /   0   0   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  62  92  67 /   0   0   0   0                                
RUSSELL         87  64  96  71 /   0   0   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      88  64  95  71 /   5   0   0   0                                
SALINA          85  64  94  70 /   0   0   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       86  63  93  69 /   0   0   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     83  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0                                
CHANUTE         82  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0                                
IOLA            82  60  88  66 /   0   0   0   0                                
PARSONS-KPPF    82  61  89  65 /   0   0   0   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET OVER THE NEXT 48               
HOURS. A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING            
MAY YIELD SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA TODAY. MODELS PRETTY MOIST             
AOA 500MB. SO PARTLY CLOUDY SHOULD DO IT. ALSO THINK NUMERICAL                  
GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEXT TWO DAYS. MODEL               
SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL OF DRY AIR...SO WE                  
ADJUSTED DEW POINT TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE              
THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON THIS.                                              
MODELS BRING A SYSTEM DOWN IN NW FLOW WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED              
NIGHT. THE MODELS DAMPEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES OUR FA. SO                
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.           
NO CHANGES TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GFS IS HINTING                
AT CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MID TROP RIDGE AXIS           
PROGGED TO BE TO OUR EAST. PREFER TO LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK              
AT NEW HPC GUIDANCE...AND SEE WHAT SURROUNDING OFFICES THINK AS                 
WELL.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
445 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES            
AND WESTERN PLAINS. A PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 95 KT            
250 MB JET WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA(NEAR WINNIPEG). AT THE                 
SFC...LOW PRES HAD MOVED INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A TROF INTO ERN ND.              
A FEW TSRA HAVE PERSISTED IN WRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV VCNTY              
STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM              
WITH SHOWALTER NEAR -2...PER 06Z RUC. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS               
WERE INCREASING FROM NE MN INTO WRN UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
TODAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 06Z RUC AND 00Z               
NAM /PARALLEL NAM SUGGEST THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOWER IN SPREADING            
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS FCST.            
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BY AFTERNOON...EVEN               
THOUGH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION...EXPECT ENOUGH              
HEATING FOR SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG (TEMPS AROUND 70 AND                 
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50). THE MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
THE SHRTWV FOCUS WITH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPR             
LVL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE H25 JET TOWARD SW UPR MI AND NRN              
WI. IN ADDITION THE BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY LK SUPERIOR               
BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST UPR MI.                       
HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SCT OFF SOME SCT -SHRA              
EVEN OVER THE NORTH WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING.                
SO...TAPERED POPS FROM NMRS/LIKELY(60) OVER THE S TO SCT/CHC(30)                
OVER THE NORTH AND INCLUDED ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OVER THE ERN CWA.                
THREAT FOR STRONG TSTMS OR HAIL LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE               
DESPITE MODERATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND RELATIVELY LOW               
FRZG LVL/WBZ NEAR 9.5K FT/8.5K FT.                                              
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING            
AS THE SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE SE AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.            
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL EVEN FOR              
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PCPN.                                            
WED...SUBSIDENCE WITH SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV ALONG WITH SFC HIGH            
PRES SHOULD BRING CLEARING OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AFTER             
SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT LAKE BREEZES WILL             
DEVELOP OFF OF BOTH GREAT LAKES.                                                
THU INTO FRI...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THU            
NIGHT INTO WEST UPR MI AND OVER THE CWA FRI WITH 310K-315K                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AS THE MID              
LVL RDG BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
346 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON POPS TODAY INTO WED AND THEN ON                  
QUIET WX REGIME FOR THU.                                                        
WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VORT MAX HEADING SEWD FROM CANADA                
TOWARDS NRN MN. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGD TO DROP INTO THE STATE                   
TODAY AND BRING ITS ASSOC DCVA ACRS THE CWA DURG THE AFTN HRS.                  
POSN OF UPR JET INDICATES SOME UPR LVL DVRG COULD BE A PLAYER                   
WITH THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON                 
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM INCREASES THIS AFTN TO VAULES AOA 40KTS.                   
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM MSN SHOW CAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED BUT THATS               
ALSO WITH GENEROUS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THINK WE WOULD BE                 
AT BEST IN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE M50 RANGE FROM THE NAM MOS. GFS                
AND NGM SHOW L50 DEW POINTS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE EXPECTED CAPES                 
EVEN LOWER. GIVEN OVERALL WEAK GRADIENT TODAY DO NOT THINK WE WILL              
BE HAVING MUCH ADVECTIVE PROCESSES IN PLAY SO DEW POINTS IN L-M50S RANGE        
LOOK MORE REASONABLE. H5 CAA THIS AFTN WITH TEMPS IN -13 TO -15C                
RANGE ACRS CWA. BOTTOM LINE IS WILL KEEP CHC TSTMS GOING STARTING               
THIS AFTN WITH APPCH OF DCVA.                                                   
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE INDICATED BY MODELS IS PROGGD TO COME THRU                 
OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF WED. AGAIN...CAPE WILL BE EVEN LESS                
GIVEN UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY CONSIDERATIONS. ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE                
WILL BE IN UNFAVORABLE JET QUAD ERLY WED WITH MORE OF A LEFT REAR               
QUAD OF THE JET IN PLACE ACRS OUR CWA. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY               
WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING VCNTY SRN WI DURG DAY AND NAM POOLS                   
INSTAB IN SW WI. WILL THUS MAINTAIN GOING POP ALIGNMENT FOR WED.                
AS FOR THU IT LOOKS RIDGY ALF AND AT THE SFC. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH                
TRYING TO BRING A SUSPECT VORT MAX THRU RDG AXIS DURG THE DAY BUT               
OVERALL HIGH LOOKS PROTECTIVE WITH LLJ MORE FOCUSED WEST OF HERE                
IN THE PLAINS. FOR NOW PREFER CLEANER LOOK OF THE NAM VORT                      
STRUCTURE AT 72 HR.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1109 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TRACKING SE                  
ACROSS NE MN. JUST AHEAD OF FEATURE...SHRA HAVE SPREAD ACROSS WRN               
LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE ENTERED WRN UPPER MI IN THE LAST 1-2HRS.                 
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK HAS NOT INDICATED ANY LIGHTNING YET WITH            
THIS INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN. FARTHER UPSTREAM UNDERNEATH VORT...SOME             
LIGHTNING WAS INDICATED EARLIER...BUT NOTHING IN THE LAST COUPLE OF             
HRS.                                                                            
GOING FCST FOR THIS AFTN IS IN GREAT SHAPE AND REQUIRES MINIMAL                 
ADJUSTMENT. PER 12Z RUC...85-90KT UPPER JET TRACKING FROM NRN MN                
INTO CNTRL WI WILL PLACE ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER MI UNDER LEFT              
EXIT REGION AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE THIS AFTN. THIS MORE OR             
LESS LINES UP WITH WHERE BEST DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ALSO            
PROGGED. GOING FCST HAS THIS CAPTURED WELL WITH HIGHEST POPS W AND              
LOWEST E. AS FOR TSRA...UPSTREAM 12Z KINL SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR A               
HIGHER END T/TD COMBINATION OF 71/52F YIELDS CAPE OF 845J/KG. THERE             
MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THAT HIGH            
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WRN UPPER MI. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS HIGHEST             
ALONG WI BORDER WHERE VALUES ARE AROUND 30KT. COMBINED WITH FREEZING            
LEVELS AROUND 9.5KFT AND WETBULB ZERO AROUND 9KFT...SMALL HAIL IS A             
POSSIBILITY WITH STRONGER STORMS...PROVIDED BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS                
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP THE INSTABILITY. WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE             
ON DURING THE AFTN. UPDATED GRIDS ARE ALREADY OUT.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT                                        
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.               
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW                   
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DOWNSTREAM FROM A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES            
AND WESTERN PLAINS. A PROMINENT UPSTREAM SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED 95 KT            
250 MB JET WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA(NEAR WINNIPEG). AT THE                 
SFC...LOW PRES HAD MOVED INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A TROF INTO ERN ND.              
A FEW TSRA HAVE PERSISTED IN WRN ONTARIO AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV VCNTY              
STRONG 700-500 QVECTOR CONV AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM              
WITH SHOWALTER NEAR -2...PER 06Z RUC. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS               
WERE INCREASING FROM NE MN INTO WRN UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K                    
ISENTROPIC LIFT.                                                                
TODAY...RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH THE 06Z RUC AND 00Z               
NAM /PARALLEL NAM SUGGEST THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SLOWER IN SPREADING            
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI THIS MORNING THAN PREVIOUS FCST.            
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. BY AFTERNOON...EVEN               
THOUGH INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATION...EXPECT ENOUGH              
HEATING FOR SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG (TEMPS AROUND 70 AND                 
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50). THE MDLS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH            
THE SHRTWV FOCUS WITH THE STRONGEST 700-500 MB QVECTOR CONV AND UPR             
LVL DIV WITH THE LEFT EXIT OF THE H25 JET TOWARD SW UPR MI AND NRN              
WI. IN ADDITION THE BEST LOW LVL CONVERGENCE AIDED BY LK SUPERIOR               
BREEZE IS EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST UPR MI.                       
HOWEVER...THE SHRTWV LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO SCT OFF SOME SCT -SHRA              
EVEN OVER THE NORTH WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING.                
SO...TAPERED POPS FROM NMRS/LIKELY(60) OVER THE S TO SCT/CHC(30)                
OVER THE NORTH AND INCLUDED ONLY A SLGT CHANCE OVER THE ERN CWA.                
THREAT FOR STRONG TSTMS OR HAIL LOOKS MINIMAL GIVEN MARGINAL CAPE               
DESPITE MODERATE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND RELATIVELY LOW               
FRZG LVL/WBZ NEAR 9.5K FT/8.5K FT.                                              
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING            
AS THE SHRTWV SLIDES TO THE SE AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.            
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE FOG POTENTIAL EVEN FOR              
AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT PCPN.                                            
WED...SUBSIDENCE WITH SHRTWV RDG AND QVECTOR DIV ALONG WITH SFC HIGH            
PRES SHOULD BRING CLEARING OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON AFTER             
SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS. WITH WEAK GRADIENT LAKE BREEZES WILL             
DEVELOP OFF OF BOTH GREAT LAKES.                                                
THU INTO FRI...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AS SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THU            
NIGHT INTO WEST UPR MI AND OVER THE CWA FRI WITH 310K-315K                      
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND STRONG SFC-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AS THE MID              
LVL RDG BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE WRN LAKES.                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
JLB (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
927 AM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...                                          
EASTERLY GRADIENT WAS REINFORCED LAST NIGHT AS WAVE DROPPED INTO                
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME FOG IS                  
HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES FROM BIL WESTWARD. THIS APPEARS A BIT                
THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...AND WITH                    
EASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AM THINKING IT WILL BE SLOW              
TO ERODE/LIFT. HAVE TWEAKED SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...AND MENTIONED               
FOG AS WELL. SOME DENSE FOG AT BOZEMAN PASS PER WEB CAM COVERED IN              
A NOWCAST.                                                                      
VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN                  
SOME VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WHICH ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW               
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP OUR AIRMASS AGAIN TODAY. MORNING RIW SOUNDING              
SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR IN CENTRAL WYOMING...PWATS RANGE FROM O.31                 
INCHES THERE TO OVER AN INCH AT GGW. GFS/NAM/RUC SHOW DRY PUNCH                 
WITH SOME CONVERGENCE LIFTING TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN PARTS LATE TODAY              
INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN SOME ISOLD TSTMS OCCURRED DOWN THAT WAY                 
LAST EVENING...BELIEVE SOMETHING SIMILAR MAY BE IN STORE FOR LATER              
TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED SOME ISOLD POPS AT SHR AND ACROSS THE                     
MT/WY/SD BORDERS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY PLENTY OF CAPE...ON THE                    
ORDER OF 2KJ/KG...SO IT IS JUST A MATTER OF BREAKING THRU THE CAP.              
OTHERWISE WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN SOUTHERN CA IS                    
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. CURRENT POPS WITH MENTION OF SEVERE                
IN OUR FAR WEST TONIGHT AS THIS WAVE CLIPS US STILL LOOKS GOOD AND              
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES.                                                           
HAVE ALSO TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS FOR TODAY DOWN A BIT MOST                      
PLACES...BASED ON A GOOD EASTERLY GRADIENT/POOR MIXING AS WELL AS               
LINGERING STRATUS OR STRATOCU IN THE WEST.                                      
UPDATE COMING SHORTLY.                                                          
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...                           
UPPER TROUGH TO LINGER OVER MONTANA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SHORTWAVE               
ENERGY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN SCATTERED                       
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE TROUGH HANGING               
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE                 
THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRY OUT THE AIR               
MASS AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD.                 
PER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF               
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.                    
WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE                
SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS                  
SATURDAY EVENING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY ON WITH                
A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED BEGINNING TO NEXT WEEK...DECIDED TO                     
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD                
WHICH IS CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAN               
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY               
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MADE VERY                
FEW CHANGES TO HIGHS AND LOWS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.               
MACZKO                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR TO LOCAL LIFR CIGS/VIS HUGGING THE EASTERN SLOPES FROM BIL AND              
LVM TO 3HT WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AS EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS               
AREA SHOULD IMPROVE TO MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTN...THOUGH LOCAL MVFR                 
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP              
IN THE FAR SOUTH NEAR SHR LATE THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE               
DRY TODAY. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MLS TO BHK AS               
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE PLAINS. A DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF                
THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WEST               
AND NORTH OF BILLINGS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THESE                
STORMS AS THEY MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. JKL                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON                             
-------------------------------------------------------                         
BIL 084 063/089 055/078 054/081 055/080 054/077 051/077                         
    0/B 03/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    22/T    22/T                            
LVM 078 052/079 047/073 048/077 047/077 047/073 047/072                         
    0/E 34/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    22/T    22/T                            
HDN 089 058/096 054/082 053/084 051/085 053/077 053/082                         
    0/U 02/T    42/T    20/B    00/U    22/T    22/T                            
MLS 085 064/094 064/081 056/082 055/082 056/079 056/077                         
    0/N 22/T    42/T    20/B    00/U    02/T    22/T                            
4BQ 088 061/094 063/083 053/082 052/083 053/077 054/077                         
    0/U 02/T    42/T    30/B    00/U    02/T    22/T                            
BHK 081 061/088 065/080 054/078 053/081 054/076 054/077                         
    0/N 02/T    43/T    20/B    00/U    02/T    22/T                            
SHR 090 057/094 055/079 049/079 049/082 049/077 049/074                         
    2/T 22/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    12/T    22/T                            
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX                                          
1035 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
RUC AND WRF STILL WANT TO BREAK SOME PRECIP OUT IN THE VICINITY OF              
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE ALL OR MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL             
BE OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA...BUT LEFT SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR SE FOR THE              
18-00Z PERIOD JUST IN CASE. OTHERWISE...ONLY UPDATED TO TWEAK DP AND            
SKY GRIDS. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS              
THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES WEST. /13                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
620 AM CDT                                                                      
NO CONCERNS. STRAY CIRRUS...ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CU TODAY AS SFC            
LAYER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN. STILL PAPER-THIN MOISTURE AND LOW            
CLOUDS SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL               
REMAIN E/NE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...AS SFC HIGH MEANDERS SLOWLY EAST               
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. 25                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
425 AM CDT                                                                      
HIGH CLOUDS...THE DEBRIS FROM THE STORMS THAT FORMED MONDAY AFTERNOON           
OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ARE THINNING             
AS THE MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY               
HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS              
HAVING SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. A WEAK                  
SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO             
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF A SLIGHT               
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME                   
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE END OF                
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND/S FORECAST IS A BIT COMPLICATED. THE                
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN                  
DOMINATING OUR WEATHER SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE              
MOVES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN U.S. AT THE                  
SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE                
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED               
TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL                  
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE                  
LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS              
LOW AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE JUST PLACED 20 PERCENTS AREAWIDE FOR                
THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. #58                                         
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  96  71  94  70 /  10  10   0   0                          
WACO, TX             100  69  96  68 /  10  10   0   0                          
PARIS, TX             92  65  91  66 /  10  10   0   0                          
DENTON, TX            96  67  93  65 /  10  10   0   0                          
MCKINNEY, TX          94  66  92  65 /  10  10   0   0                          
DALLAS, TX            97  71  94  73 /  10  10   0   0                          
TERRELL, TX           93  66  92  67 /  10  10   0   0                          
CORSICANA, TX         94  68  92  69 /  10  10   0   0                          
TEMPLE, TX            97  69  93  68 /  10  10   0   0                          
&&                                                                              
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
25/58                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
319 PM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...                                          
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS CAPPED UNDER STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AND                   
COOLER EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STRATOCU GRADUALLY ERODING AWAY                 
WEST OF BILLINGS...BUT IT MAY NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY TONIGHT AS               
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE. SOME CU FORMING OVER THE MTS. WILL                 
KEEP ISOLD POPS THIS EVENING OVER THE SW MTS AND BIG HORNS...BUT                
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT COMING OUT OF               
WY. DRY LINE FEATURE IN WY IS NOT DOING MUCH RIGHT NOW...BUT                    
BOUNDARY IS DISTINCT WITH DEWPTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN              
CENTRAL WY AND IN THE 50S AT BYG AND SHR. APPEARS DRY AIR IS                    
WINNING OUT THOUGH...AND WILL KEEP ONLY MENTION OF ISOLD TS IN                  
SOUTHERN CARTER COUNTY THIS EVENING WHERE BETTER CONVERGENCE                    
SHOULD BE SETTING UP.                                                           
COUPLE THINGS AT WORK LATER TONIGHT. FIRST IS WAVE IN HIGHLY                    
AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN. LIFT                 
FROM THIS FEATURE IS SEVERAL HOURS AWAY YET...BUT WITH CONVECTION               
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH UT/NV IT APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK TO                    
AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. LVM FORECAST SOUNDINGS                  
SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR TO WARRANT MENTION OF SVR...BUT THIS                 
WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE EVNG OR LATER WHEN UPPER SUPPORT              
ARRIVES. IF SOMETHING DOES GET GOING IN OUR W/NW PARTS...IT MAY BE              
AIDED BY DEVELOPING SELY LOW LEVEL JET...IE THE SECOND THING. WILL              
THUS KEEP ISOLD TS GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT AS THIS               
WOULD BE FAVORED TRACK AFTER INITIATION. INTERESTING THAT BOTH THE              
NAM/RUC SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR WHEATLAND              
COUNTY LATER THIS EVNG...POSSIBLY AIDED BY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS                   
GIVES SOME CREDENCE TO KEEPING THOSE POPS GOING.                                
RATHER TRICKY FORECAST TOMORROW...WITH EXACT INTERACTION BETWEEN                
UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT AND MOISTURE/DRIER AIR STILL VERY MUCH IN                  
QUESTION. GREATEST UPPER SUPPORT AS HEALTHY H3 JET COMES OUT OF                 
WESTERN WY EARLY TOMORROW FAVOR KEEPING HIGHEST POPS IN THE WEST.               
HOWEVER...AS COLD ADVECTION/WESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN BY THEN                  
THINK ANY CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL HAVE PASSED BY THEN. WILL KEEP                  
SCATTERED AFTN POPS GOING IN CENTRAL PARTS...BUT APPEARS THERE                  
WILL BE A LIMITED TIME WHEN MOISTURE/LIFT IS SUFFICIENT BEFORE                  
SIGNIFICANT DRYING TAKES OVER. GREATEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFTS              
UP WEST OF BILLINGS...WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE TAKING OVER BY LATE                
AFTN/EVNG...LIKELY FROM ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION.                         
NONETHELESS...WILL PROBABLY SEE A BAND OF CONVECTION COME THROUGH               
WITH BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG PVA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN                 
CENTRAL PARTS...BUT THINK MUCH BETTER CHANCE WILL BE IN THE EAST                
LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVNG. FCST SOUNDING FROM MLS TO BHK SHOW IN              
EXCESS OF 3KJ/KG AND PLENTY OF SHEAR WITH A GOOD SELY LOW LEVEL                 
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT OUT EAST              
AS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EVENTUALLY COME THROUGH.                           
TEMPERATURES ALSO TRICKY. WITH CHANCES OF PCPN AND EARLY ONSET OF               
COLD ADVECTION HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE WEST.                         
CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS SHOULD SEE A BURST IN TEMPS AS INVERSION                  
FINALLY GETS MIXED OUT...SOMETIME FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN.                 
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SHOW WELL-MIXED AIRMASS WITH 2M TEMPS NEAR 100C AT               
4BQ AS DRIER AIR SURGES OUT OF WY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW               
THIS PANS OUT AND FOR NOW HAVE RAISED TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THIS                  
AREA...TO MID OR UPPER 90S.                                                     
WITH STRONG Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN DOWNSLOPE SW/W FLOW HAVE OPTED               
TO DRY THINGS OUT IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS LATE WED NITE THRU                 
THU MORNING. SECONDARY TROF WITH SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT IS SET TO                
COME THRU LATE IN THE DAY AND THU NITE...AND WILL KEEP ISOLD POPS               
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST CAPES ARE NOT MUCH                        
THOUGH...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST...SO WOULD                 
THINK ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER                 
THU...WITH GOOD MIXING AND 700MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SHOULD              
SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST PLACES.                              
JKL                                                                             
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN              
EXITING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND THEN TURNING THE FLOW               
NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME              
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND                  
FROM RUN TO RUN...REGARDING THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE FEATURES IN                
THE FAST ZONAL FLOW STARTING ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS WILL HAVE A                
DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THESE FEATURES BECAUSE OF THEIR FAST MOVING            
AND SMALL SCALE NATURE. FEEL CURRENT FORECAST OVERALL HAS A GOOD                
TREND WITH TEMPS WITH NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. POPS FORECAST...WHICH               
PROVIDES BROAD BRUSHED 20 ISH POPS LOOKS REASONABLE AS WELL WITH                
THE JET ENERGY PROGGED. MADE VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. MOORE        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVRF CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 3HT TO LWT TO RED LODGE WILL SLOWLY              
DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO                
MOVE NORTH OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED               
TO CONTINUE TRECKING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA                       
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...MVFR TO VFR CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO                       
REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY SURROUNDING           
BILLINGS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT BY 18Z AS AN UPPER WAVE                      
APPROACHES...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LATE STRONG LATE DAY                            
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. MOORE                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...                                                 
    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE                         
-----------------------------------------------------------                     
BIL 063/084 057/078 053/079 055/080 054/077 051/076 053/079                     
    03/T    32/T    20/B    00/B    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
LVM 053/075 045/072 045/077 047/077 047/073 047/072 046/074                     
    35/T    42/T    20/B    00/B    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
HDN 058/091 056/082 050/081 051/085 053/077 053/081 052/083                     
    03/T    32/T    20/B    00/U    22/T    22/T    22/T                        
MLS 063/093 064/081 056/080 055/082 056/079 056/076 052/077                     
    22/T    52/T    20/B    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T                        
4BQ 060/097 062/083 052/081 052/083 053/077 054/076 052/079                     
    02/T    42/T    20/B    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T                        
BHK 060/088 065/080 053/078 053/081 054/076 054/076 051/079                     
    22/T    52/T    20/B    00/U    02/T    22/T    22/T                        
SHR 057/093 055/079 047/075 049/082 049/077 049/074 048/077                     
    02/T    32/T    20/B    00/B    12/T    22/T    22/T                        
&&                                                                              
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY MOVES              
OFF TO SEA OVER MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ALLOWING A RIDGE TO              
BUILD IN BEHIND IT JUST IN TIME FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALBERTO                
WHICH WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE               
AREA, AND POSE NO PRECIPITATION THREAT TO US. A SHORT WAVE WILL                 
SLIDE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR THE                
SHORT TERM PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ALBERTO            
MAY INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH AN ADDED INFLUX OF MOISTURE.                
WEAK INSTABILITY AND GOOD FORCING COULD ALSO RESULT IN SCATTERED                
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE WILL                 
BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND THE AREA WILL BE SET UP FOR SOME EXCELLENT                
HEATING AND TEMPERATURES OF SHARP CONTRAST TO WHAT THIS AREA HAS                
EXPERIENCED THE PREVIOUS WEEK.                                                  
NEAR TERM...AT 1900Z...THE KENX RADAR SHOWS ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP OVER THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...NRN NY AND                 
UPSTATE VT. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A H500 VORT MAX IN THE RELATIVELY              
FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NY. THIS IS HELPING FOCUS              
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT IS WORKING OFF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SFC                 
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. WE HAVE ADDED LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS               
EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS THIS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...                                         
OVERNIGHT...A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FCST             
AREA.  THE REMNANTS OF TS ALBERTO WILL MOVE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC              
COAST AND THE GULF STREAM. THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH              
AND WEST.  CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER               
LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS             
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE NAM             
AND GFS ARE AT ODDS FOR THE TIMING.  WE TENDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD              
THE GFS AND CAN REGIONAL.  THOUGH THE GFS POPS SEEM A BIT LOW TO THE            
WEST OF ALY.                                                                    
WEDNESDAY...MORE TIMING ISSUES WITH THE CAN DREG...GFS AGAINST THE              
NAM. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE SHOWING MORE OF A WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE               
ALBERTO MOISTURE. THE GFS SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO ABOUT 500               
J/KG SOUTH AND EAST OF ALY. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S              
TO LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DON'T LOOK SPECTACULAR. THE GFS             
HAS LIFTED INDICES IN THE -2 TO -5C RANGE OVER SRN NY AND SW                    
ENGLAND. THEIR IS A 100 KT H250 JET STREAK...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN               
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. WE HAVE KEPT            
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE FCST AREA WITH THE BEST BET                
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONE INHIBITOR MAYBE THE               
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. IF WE ARE CLOUDED IN...THEN THE LACK OF                  
BLAYER HEATING WILL INHIBIT ANY CONVECTION. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR               
VALUES OFF THE 12Z GFS ARE 35-40 KT WHICH IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED             
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL BE THE GENERIC GARDEN VARIETY MOST            
LIKELY. WE UPPED THE POPS TO LIKELY IN MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND              
WED PM INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE REST OF FCST AREA                  
CHANCE POPS 30-50% WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.             
WED NIGHT...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. WEAK COLD AIR             
ADVECTION OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT            
LAKES REGION.                                                                   
THU INTO FRI...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH NW FLOW                
ALOFT. ON THU...850 TEMPS AROUND +10C WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY                     
CONDITIONS WILL YIELD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SOME RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING IS LIKELY THU NIGHT WITH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND                    
LIGHT-CALM WINDS. THE H500 RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT              
LAKES REGION ON FRI...AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. WE WENT WITH            
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE STRETCH.                                                 
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFSMOS TEMP VALUES IN THE SHORT TERM.                   
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                    
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES CLASSIC SUMMERTIME HEAT BUILDING OVER            
THE NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT. THE               
06Z MREFS...00Z ENSEMBLE MOS DATA...00Z CAN ENSEMBLES...06Z AND 12Z             
GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z CAN GLOBAL GEM RUN AND THE LATE MORNING HPC               
GRAPHICS WERE EXAMINED FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.                
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI NIGHT-SAT                
MORNING.  A RETURN FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR COMMENCES OVER THE                
FCST AREA ON SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RAPIDLY RISE WITH THE BERMUDA             
HIGH TAKING CONTROL.  A WEAK WARM FRONT/THERMAL TROUGH LIFTS NORTH              
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST SHOT OF ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY AT THIS               
TIME LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FCST AREA...AS H850 TEMPS                
RISE TO ABOUT 15C.  ON SUNDAY...A BACKDOOR FRONT IS PARKED WELL                 
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...AS 850 MB TEMPS SOAR TO              
18-20C ! SOME OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATED             
SOME ISOLD/SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING              
ACROSS NRN NY. WE SIDED WITH HPC AND THE GFS ON SUNDAY...AND KEEP IT            
SULTRY AND PCPN FREE.                                                           
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE SAME...HOT AND HUMID...WITH TEMPS             
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS 850 MB TEMPS OF                 
+17C-+19C REMAIN IN PLACE.  ON MONDAY...LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY              
BE AN ISSUES COUPLED WITH ANY WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT IN THE HUMID AIR             
MASS. WE HAVE PLACED LOW CHANCE POPS IN NORTH AND WEST OF THE                   
CAPITAL REGION. ON TUESDAY...AN UPSTREAM H500 TROUGH AND A SFC COLD             
FRONT TIPTOES CLOSER FROM SRN QUEBEC AND THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD               
FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT IN                
PLAY PER THE ENSEMBLES...HPC AND THE GFS.                                       
BOTTOM LINE...TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED WITH ANY PCPN                  
CHANCES OF THE CONVECTIVE VARIETY WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL.                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...BUT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY              
INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY POSSIBLY BRING                  
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS.  SOME CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP                 
TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT MAINLY ABOVE 3000 FEET...AND FOR NOW KEEPING               
SCATTERED CLOUDS SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER              
ALOFT.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE LIGHT...ALSO SUPPORTING THE             
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG OVERNIGHT.  WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT             
SYSTEM TOMORROW...CONTINUING TO ACKNOWLEDGE SOME CLOUDS...BUT NO                
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER                    
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ADIRONDACKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND                         
EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  POINT RAINFALLS IN ANY                 
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE A HALF INCH OR MORE...BUT AREAL              
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LOW...AND ANY FLOOD THREATS                       
RIVER...STREAM OR OTHERWISE...ARE VERY LOW AT BEST.                             
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...TRACEY                                                               
SHORT TERM...WASULA                                                             
LONG TERM...WASULA                                                              
AVIATION...NAS                                                                  
HYDROLOGY...NAS                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...                                      
NO SHRA ON THE RADARS AS OF 18Z...WITH THE CAP HOLDING THE CU RATHER            
FLAT AND FAIR. WINDS LIGHT AND NNW...AND SHOULD GO CALM AGAIN                   
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SFC TROF WILL PASS THRU OVERNIGHT. THAT               
COULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE A SHRA IN THE NE/EC ZNS...SO WILL HOLD ONTO             
A 20 POP FOR THEM AS PER PREV FCSTS. RUC13 AND WRF12 RUNS DO SUPPORT            
THIS IDEA...TOO. MINS WILL DIP TO NEAR THE DWPTS...BUT WIDESPREAD               
FOG NOT LIKELY WITH 50-SOMETHING DWPTS. WILL NOT MENTION IN ZFP TEXT.           
OUR FRIEND ALBERTO IS PROGGED BY STEADY NHC FCSTS TO STAY WELL EAST             
OF CWA...AND WILL COUNT ON THAT. BUT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SFC TROF               
WILL BE OVER OUR SERN ZNS ON WED AND THIS COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR               
SCT CONVECTION. WILL RUN WITH PREV FCST AND STE POPS WITH NEAR 50               
POPS IN FAR SE...TAPERING TO JUST 20 POPS IN NW. MAXES LOOK LIKE                
TODAY...MAYBE A DEG OR TWO COOLER.                                              
DANGELO                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                 
MODELS CONTINUE TO HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH WARMER AIR FOR THE                
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE LAST IN A LONG SERIES OF                  
SHORTWAVES STILL HAS TO PASS BEFORE THE REAL WARMUP BEGINS. THIS                
WAVE...LOOKS LIKE AN ALBERTA CLIPPER...IS JUST WEST OF LAKE SUPERIOR            
AROUND MID DAY AND HEADED SOUTHEAST TWD THE LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.            
IT WON'T BE MUCH OF A WEATHER MAKER SINCE IT WILL BE WORKING ON A               
PRETTY DRY AIRMASS...BUT IT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS              
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE BIG REVERSAL TAKES PLACE.                
SO BEFORE WE WARM UP...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH A WEAK FRONT THAT WILL              
COME ALONG COURTESY OF THE ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SHORTWAVE...AS WELL             
AS THE REMNANTS OF ALBERTO. THE TROPICAL STORM IS JUST NOW COMING               
ASHORE SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SHELL POINT AND             
KEATON BEACH. IT HAS A VERY EXTRA-TROPICAL LOOK TO IT ON SATELLITE              
PRESENTATIONS DESPITE AN EFFORT TO FORM AN EYEWALL JUST BEFORE                  
LANDFALL. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH OF THE               
STORM CENTER IN WHAT HAS ALL THE APPEARANCES OF A WELL DEFINED                  
DEFORMATION ZONE. MODELS TAKE ALBERTO NORTHEAST THRU COASTAL GEORGIA            
AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE EMERGING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER            
TOMORROW. IT THEN GETS ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AND HUSTLED               
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE              
WEEK.                                                                           
FOR US WE MAY SEE A SHOWER FROM THE FRONT/TROF AS IT SAGS                       
SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BEFORE                 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THINGS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE                
HIGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF TO OUR SE BY LATER FRIDAY...WHEN THE                
HEAT AND HUMIDITY SHUD START TO SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US. UPPER              
HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO STAY 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850 TEMPS                
ALSO FCST TO RISE TO A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. MREF                
SHOWS THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO LAST INTO AT LEAST WED.                           
IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE LITTLE MORE THAN A SHOT AT SOME DIURNAL                   
CONVECTION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE                  
BUILDS IN AND KEEPS ANY APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEMS AT BAY NORTH OF             
THE REGION. MODELS DO SHOW PRECIP WATERS EVENTUALLY CREEPING UP...AS            
HIGH AS 1-2 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY...WHICH IS PROBABLY WHEN             
WE WILL START TO HAVE TO MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE                     
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR STORMS.                          
LA CORTE                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THIS FCST PKG...WITH ONLY BRIEF DIP TO                
MVFR FOG IN A FEW LOCALES AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT              
AND GENERALLY N/NW THRU THE PERIOD. WILL LEAVE ALL FCSTS DRY EXCEPT             
MDT DUE TO LOW CERTAINTY OF ANY SHRA ACTIVITY GOING.  MOST POSSIBLE             
LOCATION FOR A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM KIPT NE. WILL JUST                 
MENTION VCSH IN LATEST PD /AFT 15Z/ OF KMDT TAF...WITH SCT                      
CONVECTION TO POP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.                                   
DANGELO                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY                                            
211 PM MDT TUE JUN 13 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ONE MORE HOT DAY IN                    
STORE TOMORROW AS THE H5 RIDGE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN IN AN                        
AMPLIFIED POSITION JUST EAST THE CWA. PACIFIC TROUGH FINALLY MAKES              
A PUSH LATE IN THE DAY WITH A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY              
WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE NEB PANHANDLE...SO SOME PRE FRONTAL                    
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TRIGGERED THERE SINCE SOME SURFACE MOISTURE                
WILL STILL BE LINGERING. THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES COULD SEE SOME             
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOIST SW MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF                
THE TROUGH AND AN EXTREMELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THURSDAY WILL BE                
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE TROUGH...BUT THE RESULTANT SFC                 
UPSLOPE WILL AGAIN PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ZONES. IN               
THE MEANTIME...HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TSMS TO THE FAR NE                 
ZONES THIS EVENING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES ABOVE SOME STRONG                   
INSTABILITY. RUC AND NAM DEPICT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST                  
NORTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT IF IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD EVEN A                     
LITTLE...CHADRON COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT.                              
.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THRU TUE...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z             
GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF ON THE LINGERING UPPER TROF TO MOVE ACROSS THE            
REGION FRI/FRI NGT.  NAM LOOKS TOO QUICK WITH TROF AND ASSOCD                   
CLD/PCPN FIELDS.  HAVE KEPT SOME TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVNG MAINLY S/E.                
FRI LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD AS WEAK FRONT IS OFF             
INTO CNTRL PLAINS WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE BEHIND FRONT OVER SE              
WY.  UPPER TROF SHOULD SHIFT E OF AREA FOR DRY AND WARMER SAT INTO              
SUN.  12Z GFS HAS COME AROUND TO IDEA OF HIGHER HGTS LIKE ECMWF/UKMET           
FOR SUN INTO TUE.  HOWEVER GFS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO BRING IN PIECE OF            
W COAST TROF TUE WITH ITS ASSOCD CDFNT.  12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS FRONT               
MAY STALL OUT NE-SW ACRS CNTRL WY TUE.  LATER PERIODS OVERALL                   
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL.                                          
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...PROXIMITY OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE TOMORROW WILL                   
PRESERVE HOT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUED DRY                     
AIRMASS. RH/S SHOULD PLUNGE INTO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR WEST AND              
MID TEEN IN MOST PLAINS. APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PLACE DISTRICT                 
UNDER FAST SW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY              
LATE AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE GENERALLY BLUSTERY WINDS. SOME GUIDANCE               
SUGGESTS SUSTAINED 35 MPH IN WESTERN ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.                
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...RED FLAG WARNING IS DEFINITELY WARRANTED               
FOR THE DRY FUEL ZONES OF 291 THROUGH 295. NEB PANHANDLE WILL                   
DEFINITELY HIT THE RH CRITERIA TOMORROW BUT THE WINDS WILL BE                   
MARGINAL DURING THE LOW RH PERIOD BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL TAKE                   
LONGER TO GET THERE. THUS...HAVE PLACED 200 AND 202 IN A FIRE                   
WEATHER WATCH AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS PONDER THE TIMING OF THE                
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY FOR                
     WYZ059-WYZ060-WYZ061-WYZ062-WYZ063-WYZ064-WYZ065-WYZ066.                   
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR               
     NEZ001-NEZ002-NEZ003-NEZ019-NEZ020-NEZ021-NEZ054-NEZ055.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM.....SOWKO                                                            
LONG TERM......DLF                                                              
FIRE WEATHER...SOWKO                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   wy