FXUS63 KAPX 112049
AFDAPN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
348 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...SNOW CONTINUES TO FLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 
SOME OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NOW AFFECTING 
GLR/GOV/HTL AREAS.  DRY SLOT EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS 
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE WITHIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE 
LAYER EARLY THIS EVENING...SO DESPITE STRONGEST QG FORCING CROSSING 
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION 
WILL DIMINISH.  GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL THIS EVENING SHOULD 
OCCUR ALONG-NORTH OF M-32...SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS 
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER (WHERE SOME NARROW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALSO 
NOTED ACROSS WESTERN UPPER).  WILL LET CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH 
ZONE ISSUANCE...HAVE BEEN CHASING HEAVIEST SNOW AREA WITH NOWCASTS 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO 
PUSH OUT INTO LAKE HURON AROUND 23Z.  MAIN SHORT WAVE HAS SOME SNOW 
SHOWERS WITH IT ACROSS MN...WHICH MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER 
THIS EVENING AS IT SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER.  OVERALL SNOWFALL 
SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST 
IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER.  

JPB

&&

.LONG TERM...RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE 
DAY BEFORE ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE LATE MON 
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH MONDAY ARE WITH 
SNOW CHANCES AGAIN MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL WAVE 
MOVES THROUGH. THEN...FOCUS TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL BEGINNING 
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. ETA/GFS ARE IN 
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL FOLLOW THE ETA 
SOLUTION THE CLOSEST WITH THE UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT.  

MONDAY...QUITE A BIT OF DRYING ABOVE THE -10C ISOTHERM FOR THE 
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE 
CWA LATER IN THE MORNING. SO...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE NOT 
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY BUT DOES NOT APPEAR THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE/CLOUD TOP SHEAR IS ABUNDANT ENOUGH FOR THIS TO OCCUR. 
THEN...ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING 
MOISTURE STILL FORECAST TO SLID THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN DURING THE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THE APPARENT RESULT OF A WEAK LOW/MID 
LEVEL WAVE AND RESULTING CHANGES TO THE THERMAL FIELD. NOT NEARLY AS 
MUCH KICK WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS TODAY AND ONLY EXPECT HALF AN INCH 
OR LESS FOR THE EVENT. HOWEVER...THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE/WEAK 
FORCING MAY INCREASE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP FOR THE WEST FLOW AREAS OF 
THE CWA...BUT 850 MB TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE BIT ON THE WARM SIDE SO 
THAT ANY ENHANCEMENT SHOULD NOT BE THAT DRAMATIC. THINK BEST 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR AROUND WHITEFISH POINT WHERE BETTER LAKE 
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AND DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST TO 
SET UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE SUPERIOR (MQT TO 
WHITEFISH POINT). OVERALL...WILL HAVE A TOP END OF 2 INCHES AROUND 
WHITEFISH POINT AND UP TO AN INCH IN NW LOWER MI NORTH OF M-32 TO 
THE STRAITS.      

MONDAY NIGHT...SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WANES DURING THE EVENING AND DEEPER 
MOISTURE AGAIN BEGINS TO PULL EAST. ARCTIC BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE 
THROUGH MUCH OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS 
FALLING TO -17C TO -20C OVER NRN LK MI AND E LK SUPERIOR 
RESPECTIVELY. WILL HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LATE MONDAY NIGHT 
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE BEST 
THERMAL REGIME FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
STILL AROUND FROM DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF 
SYNOPTIC FORCING AND CONSIDERING THE PROGRESSIVE STRONG LOW LEVEL 
DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WILL ONLY HAVE TOP END 
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 NRN LOWER AND 2-4 INCHES EASTERN UPPER MI IN 
THE NW FLOW AREAS.    

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN THE BATTLE RESUMES BETWEEN 
GREAT OVER WATER INSTABILITY ON NW FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES TOO COLD 
TO SUPPORT GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH. IN ADDITION...ETA/GFS HAVE BEEN 
PERSISTENT WITH DRYING OUT THE LOWER LEVELS ON TUESDAY WITH THE ETA 
SHOWING THE GREATEST DEGREE OF DRYING (TYPICAL) DROPPING 900-700MB 
MEAN RH TO <40 PERCENT. SO...AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THAT SUBSTANTIAL ON TUESDAY (A FEW INCHES AT 
BEST) BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE NW FLOW AREAS 
TUESDAY BECOMING SCATTERED TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND 
WEAKENING WINDS BUILD INTO THE REGION.  

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (EXTENDED)...GFS/EUROPEAN/NCEP ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN FOR 
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH GFS/EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS STILL 
HAVING DISAGREEMENTS OVER POSITION AND TIMING OF CLIPPER SYSTEM 
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY. LATEST 00Z/06Z GFS (AND 
SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA FORECAST) SUGGESTS SFC LOW PASSING 
BY THE STATE SW OF THE CWA LATE WED BUT A VERY SHARP N-S MOISTURE 
GRADIENT. AT THIS POINT...APPEARS WE WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LAKE 
HURON ENHANCEMENT EVENT (PROVIDED DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES FAR ENOUGH 
NORTH). WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ON WED WITH THE HIGHEST 
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THEN...GFS BECOMES SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK 
TRYING TO FLATTEN OUT MID LEVEL FLOW A BIT ACROSS THE CONUS AND 
TAKING HEART OF COLDER AIR INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NCEP 
ENSEMBLE MEANS...AND SUPPORTED BY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION AS WELL AS 
CLIMATOLOGY...KEEPS STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WEST AND DEEPER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER EASTERN NOAM AND THE GREAT LAKES. WILL 
STAY THE COURSE AND MAINTAIN COLD PATTERN RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
UNDERCUTTING GFS MOS NUMBERS IN THE LATTER PERIODS. SO...JUST AS 
YESTERDAY..MAINTAINING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY PROBABLY A GOOD BET ALONG WITH ENHANCED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL AT 
TIMES AS PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND MEAN TROUGH. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

ADAM