FXUS63 KJKL 090805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2004

.DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY FRONT RUNS ACROSS I 80 WITH NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE 
COMPLEXES PARADING ALONG THE FRONT.  CLOSER TO HOME, WE HAD CLEAR 
SKIES WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF A GOOD TEN DEGREE RIDGE TO VALLEY 
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE.

OVER THE NEXT WEEK THE SUMMERLIKE SOUTHERN RIDGE OF LATE WILL BEGIN 
TO MOVE EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IT 
FROM THE WEST...AND THEN LATER IN THE WEEK...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL 
ENGULF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.  THE RESULT WILL BE ONE 
FINAL DAY TODAY WITH NO POPS AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.

BY MON...BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR FLOW FROM THE GULF TO PROVIDE A 
STEADY SOURCE OF MOISTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  META AND 
GFS BOTH ADVERTISING A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW MON GIVING 
US OUR FIRST DAY WITH A POTENTIAL LIFT MECH.  THEREFORE...UPPED POPS 
TO 30 IN WESTERN ZONES.  TUE NOT AS CLEAR THEREFORE LEFT SLT CHC 
POPS...DIURNAL SUMMER LIKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH GFS/ETA 
DIFFERING ON UPPER WAVE TIMING/POSITIONING.

TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY A 
DEGREE WARMER.  MON AND TUE WILL COME DOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH 
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SKY COVER.  GRIDS WERE IN REALLY GOOD SHAPE AND 
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR THE NEAR TERM.  

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

1150 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH 
ZONAL SUMMER LIKE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM THE PLAINS EAST ALONG THE I 90 CORRIDOR TO A WAVE OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER SW PA AND THEN FRONT EXTENDS S DOWN THE APPALACHIANS 
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST. AS OF 3Z...VALLEY 
TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH JKL AND OTHER RIDGE TOP LOCATIONS 
IN THE LOWER 70S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVER MOST OF 
THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES...LOW TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE 
REACHABLE IN MOST AREAS AND DID NOT CHANGE THEM. HOWEVER...OVER THE 
FAR SW...DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. RAISED 
VALLEY LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SW. ALSO...REMOVED 
MIDNIGHT REFERENCES TO PATCHY FOG. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 
SW...EXPECT THE MOST FOG THERE. UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES ARE ALREADY 
OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

355 PM EDT SAT MAY 8 2004

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARP BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RUNNING WEST TO 
EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY IN THE FORM OF A FRONT 
CONNECTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A LOW OVER THE HIGH 
PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL DOMINATED 
KEEPING THE WEATHER CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. PLENTY 
OF CLOUDS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WERE ALSO LOCATED UP ALONG THE 
FRONT. 

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SUMMER LIKE PATTERN OF 
FAST FLOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ABOVE A BROAD...FLAT RIDGE IN THE 
SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS ENERGY DRIFTS THROUGH 
IT FROM THE WEST. THE PATTERN BUCKLES THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DEEP 
TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH THE ROCKIES PUMPING THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. AS A 
RESULT KENTUCKY WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR MINOR WAVES 
ROLLING NEARBY. GIVEN THEIR WEAKNESS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA WAS 
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. THE WESTERN TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST 
CROSSING THE LAKES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. 

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OF PERSISTENT 
WEATHER...MEANING DRY...WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER 
PARTLY SUNNY DAYTIME SKIES AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. THE WEAKENING 
HIGH AND SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUMP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF 
MOISTURE INTO EAST KENTUCKY HELPING TO SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHANCES 
OF THUNDERSTORMS A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS 
THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO MODERATE CAPES AND SUMMERTIME 
LIS IN THE -6 RANGE. WITH AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN PWS THROUGH THE 
WEEK...ANY OF THE STORMS COULD PUT DOWN BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THE BEST 
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY 
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON DOES LOOK COOLER IN THE FRONT/S WAKE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT 
MID 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH LOWER 80S THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
WORK WEEK. NIGHTTIME RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS WILL BE THE 
RULE AS WELL WITH PATCHY...MAINLY VALLEY...FOG FROM JUST AFTER 
MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK. 

MOS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WERE ALL VERY SIMILAR...JUST HAD 
TO CHERRY PICK MY PREFERRED VALUES BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE AND 
POP CHANCES STARTING MONDAY. POPS WERE ALSO SIMILAR...KEPT THEM OUT 
UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WAS WARRANTED... 
EFFECTIVELY SPLITTING THE MAV AND FWC NUMBERS. TRIED TO REPRESENT A 
DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. 

AS FOR IFPS/GFE GRIDS...POPULATED WITH MY USUAL PROCEDURE FROM THE 
MESOETA FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS THROUGH 60 HOURS. THESE CAME 
IN FAIRLY GOOD AND JUST HAD TO EXPAND THE RIDGE TO VALLEY 
TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO SHAVED THE WINDS 
BACK A BIT. THE REST OF THE GRIDS WERE IN DECENT SHAPE SAVE FOR SOME 
FILL PATTERN SKY GRIDS I INHERITED MID FORECAST. ADJUSTED AND REDID 
THE SKY WHERE NECESSARY PER THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...HPC AND NDFD 
COLLABORATION. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

OUDEMAN