ILLINOIS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
225 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND WHAT TRW THERE ARE SEEMS TO BE FALLING              
APART AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEAST IL AND NWRN IN. WW'S IN PLACE FAR              
SRN IL WHERE STG LO LVL JET AND OTHER DYNAMICS MORE SUGGESTIVE OF               
TRW ACTIVITY AND ROBBING PRECIOUS MSTR FROM REST OF IL TNGT. MAY                
HAVE TO LESSEN POPS FOR NRN AND WRN PARTS OF IL THIS EVE AND DROP               
BACK TO LIKELY TNGT. ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE SAYING MUCH THE SAME WITH            
A SURGE OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND AGAIN WITH BEST OMEGA JUST AHD OF             
FNTL PASSAGE LT TNGT. AVN AND NGM APPROX THE RUC FOR TNGT AND HAVE A            
LTL MORE FAITH IN THEM THAN ETA WHICH VARIES GREATLY FRM OTHERS                 
LAST 24 HRS. MAINLY ETA FAILS TO DVLP LO IN SRN PLAINS SUN NGT AND              
MON WHILE AVN AND NGM DEEPEN SYSTEM WELL. AS SUCH NEXT SHOT OF PCPN             
DUE ON PROBLY MON NGT WITH SOME INCRSG CLDS MON...BUT ETA WUD HAVE              
PCPN IN SRN 1/2 IL ON MON WITH OVRRUNNING WRMFNT THRU STL.                      
DRYING NW WINDS BHND FNT SUNDAY SHUD RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE            
ESP LT MRNG AND AFTN AND FAIR SKIES SUN NGT. WUD LIKE TO FOLLOW MOS             
TEMPS. FAN TMPS AWKWARD NERN IL WITH ONLY 59 FCST ORD. NE WNDS OFF              
LK MICH NOT EXPECTED (EVEN WITH AVN) UNTIL SUN NGT AND MON WHEN SHUD            
BE COOLER LKFNT THAN INLAND.                                                    
.CHI...GALE WRNG LK SUP                                                         
BRUMER                                                                          
NNNN  il                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
145 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
AFTER MORNING MESO-VORT CENTER HAS LIFTED NE WHICH RUC HAS                      
LATCHED ONTO, CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS INDICATING THAT                     
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE THREAT STILL AVAILABLE. WARM FRONT HAS SURGED             
NORTH TO HIGHWAY 20 (FOD-ALO LINE) WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AIDING                 
CONVERGENCE FROM DSM-UIN LINE WHERE TSRA ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP IN               
MOST UNSTABLE AIR.  LIS DOWN TO -5 TO -7 OVER LARGE AREA E OF I-35.             
SHEAR PROFILE GETTING BETTER AS 80KT+ 500 MB JET TURNING N THROUGH              
KS/NE.  SLATER PROFILER SHOWING WINDS BACKING NICELY IN LOW-LEVELS AS           
WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN IA INTO MN.  RIGHT REAR QUAD OF            
JET IS PROGGED TO BE OVER IA/MO AREA WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE                 
ALOFT.  CI SHIELD FROM ACTIVE CONVECTION IN MO/OK/AR IS THINNING                
SOME AS IT REACHES IA.  A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY DO THE                  
TRICK AFTER MODIFYING 18Z TOP SOUNDING.  EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO                  
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AS DIFF PVA INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT.  ISOLATED            
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE TO BE CONTENDED WITH ALONG WARM FRONT            
IF HEATING PERSISTS.                                                            
LONGER TERM...MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING BUT AFTER            
LESS DEEPENING THAN ADVERTISED ON PREVIOUS RUNS.  220 DM HEIGHT                 
FALLS AT PORTLAND THIS MORNING AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING                     
IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING IN QUICKLY.  AVN MODEL IS QUICKEST TO                 
BRING AFFECTS TO IA.  MINIATURE SURFACE HIGH WILL ERODE FAST ON                 
EASTER WITH WESTERLY FLOW TURNING EASTERLY BY EVENING.  OTHER THAN              
SOME CI, SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY INTO             
THE 60S WITH DRIER AIR.  WILL INCREASE CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE SW,           
AND CAN'T ARGUE WITH POPS STARTING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN              
SW IA.  THIS NEXT TROUGH, AGAIN NEGATIVELY TILTED, AND MAY BRING A              
DECENT THREAT OF CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.                          
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE TO THRIVE ON ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER IA                
AGAIN, WITH BEST SURFACE BASED LIS FORECAST FURTHER S.                          
IN PERIODS 5-7, MRF CONTINUES PROGRESSIVE BOUT WITH SHORTWAVES                  
DUMBELLING AROUND MEAN WESTERN US TROUGH.  A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO                  
TODAY'S AND TUESDAY'S IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY.  WILL BE               
INTERESTING TO SEE IF MRF IS CORRECT IN BREAKING PATTERN BY NEXT                
WEEKEND AND BRING THOSE COLD 5220M THICKNESSES INTO IA.                         
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
KULA                                                                            
NNNN  ia                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
900 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
A LITTLE BIT OF EVERY KIND OF PRECIPITION POSSIBLE IS FALLING OVER              
THE GOODLAND CWFA THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN                
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION...SNOW IS FALLING AT THE OFFICE...AND REPORTS             
OF SLEET ARE ALSO COMING IN.  FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT            
THE CURRENT SITUATION AND PLACE THE RAIN-SNOW LINE ROUGHLY NORTH-               
SOUTH FROM MCCOOK TO QUINTER BY DAYBREAK.                                       
PRESENT INDICATIONS JUDGING FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ARE THAT             
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD FALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF              
THE CWFA.                                                                       
.GLD...NONE                                                                     
ENTWISTLE                                                                       
NNNN  ks                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..........UPDATE                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
930 PM CST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
VERY FEW CHANGES WILL OCCUR WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.                            
THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWED LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN                
OKLAHOMA.  THE NEWEST ETA MODEL RUN CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIMILAR                 
TREND TO THE RUC AND BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER ICT BY 12Z.  WITH               
THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STORM HISTORY OVER OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...             
I AM HINGING ON A SIMILAR SCENARIO IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                     
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE WORDING WILL BE KEPT.   THE MAIN THREAT WITH             
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL...HOWEVER...THE STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL                
OKLAHOMA HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES.                                               
CHANCE                                                                          
.ICT...NONE.                                                                    
NNNN  ks                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1241 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                      
KJKL 88D INDICATING THAT ECHOES WEAKENING AS THEY PUSH FURHTER EAST             
INTO RIDGE. MAIN BRUNT OF SHRA/TSRA OCCURRING ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF          
I-75 FROM LOZ-SME NORTH TO THE OH RVR. S/W ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS             
BEEN WEAKENING AND PUSHING EAST PRETTY FAST. 15Z RUC AND 12Z NGM DOES           
SHOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIS STAYING BETWEEN ZERO AND              
MINUS 3 FOR THE AFTN. WITH SUN RETURNING TO SCNTL KY COULD SEE MORE             
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL UPDATE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN TO LOWER POPS           
AS I DO NOT THINK OUR FAR EAST COUNTIES WILL SEE MUCH. WILL ALSO RAISE          
HIGH TEMPS AS READINGS ALREADY NEAR 80 IN NON PCPN AREAS.                       
WHP                                                                             
NNNN  ky                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1001 AM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                      
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED TO RAISE POPS. AREA OF CONVECTION              
CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE ENE ACRS SRN KY WITH PLENTY OF LTGCG SHOWING          
UP. HAVE ALREADY HAD A FEW SHOWERS ENTER THE MIDDLE/UPPER CUMBERLAND            
VLY THIS MORNING. LAST NIGHTS MODEL RUNS ARE NOT PICKING THIS UP TOO            
WELL BUT 12Z RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT NOW. WITH THIS IN            
MIND OUR SW AND NW CWA SHOULD GET SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND           
WILL UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL THERE. FURTHER EAST IN THE RIDGE AND            
WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL CUT THE POPS AND WILL PROBABLY BREAK OUR SE ZONES         
UP AND GO LIKLEY WITH ONE AND CHANCE WITH THE OTHER.                            
12Z RUC SHOWED GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE             
305K SFC PUSHING FROM WRN KY THIS MORNING INTO CNTL KY BY 15-18Z AND            
UPT INTO NE KY/SRN OH LATE THIS AFTN. MAIN BRUNT OF SHOWER SHOULD MOVE          
THROUGH ECNTL KY AND UP TOWARD THE OH RIVER WITH LESSER ACTIVITY                
FURTHER SE AS CONVERGENCE GETS WEAKER.                                          
UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 1530Z. AS FOR TEMPS...MAY LOWER A BIT DUE TO              
RAIN/CLOUDS.                                                                    
WHP                                                                             
NNNN  ky                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
400 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
FCST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE MOVMNT OF FRONT THIS EVENING             
AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS PCP CHCS AGAIN AT THE BEGNNING             
OF THE WEEK. 20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC FRONT STRETCHING FROM CNTRL             
IA INTO SE KS...CLIPPING THE NW CORNER OF MO. SW WINDS HAVE BEEN                
ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR IN THE VERY WESTERN ZONES AND EVEN THO FRONT             
STILL MOVING EAST THRU HERE...WINDS AT MCI HAVE SHIFTED TO THE                  
WEST. LOOKS AS IF THE ONGOING PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE                 
NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS IN THE EASTERN CWFA HAD                
PLENTY OF WARMING TODAY...AND SHUD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS                 
EVENING. LATEST RUC SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE ON CURRNT PCP/QPF.                   
DRYING CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRNT GIVING SOME DECENT HEATING FOR                 
SUNDAY. SHUD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING GUID TEMPS AND WILL GENERALLY             
FOLLOW. NEXT QUESTION COMES IN SUN NITE/MON MORNING WITH NEXT SHRT              
WAVE. RETURN FLOW SETS UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS LIKE THE                    
MOISTURE WILL BE THERE. WILL MAINLY FOLLOW THE STRONGER AVN AS                  
ITS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRNT FEATURES NAD A TAD STRONGER                   
THAN THE ETA. AVN HAS LARGE AREA OF WAA PRECIP...THINK IT MAY                   
ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY NITE AND INTO REST OF             
CWFA ON MONDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE SUCH THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME             
ELEVATED CONVECTION ALSO. LLVL MOISTURE IS PRETTY HIGH AND CUD SEE              
SOME GOOD RAINS OUT OF THIS ONE. W/PCP AND CLDS...GUID TEMPS LOOK               
AT BIT HIGH FOR MONDAY AND WILL TRIM DOWN.                                      
EXTND FCST LOOKS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN CLOSED UPPER LOW IN CA                 
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRL PLAINS.                                           
.EAX...                                                                         
MO...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
LVQ                                                                             
NNNN  mo                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
830 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
GOES-10 DERIVED WINDS HAS UPPER LOW WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG JET PUSHING        
INTO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE             
TROUGH AND THUS SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. THIS MAKES ME             
THINK THAT EARLIER MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST WITH LOW KICKING OUT. VERY          
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD ENHANCEMENT OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING SLOWLY WORKING               
NORTHWARD. RADARS TO THE SOUTH SHOW SNOW PATTERN FROM CASPER TO SOUTH OF        
RAPID CITY. 00Z RUC MOVES UPPER LOW INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING BY MORNING           
WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THINK THIS EVENT COULD BE A           
LITTLE STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THE WAY IT LOOKS TO          
ME (WITHOUT FULL ETA AND AVN PACKAGES) IS THAT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL           
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THOUGH THE DAY            
SATURDAY. WITHOUT THE FULL MODEL RUNS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES         
...BUT MIDNIGHT CREW MAY INDEED NEED TO RAISE ONE FOR THE SOUTHEAST.            
BASED ON COORDINATION WITH BIS AND RAP...WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO          
WORDING IN THE SOUTHEAST AS INITIAL WAVE OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PUSHED NORTH         
AND NEXT WAVE TO MOVE UP LATER TONIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LEFT ALONE.            
WILL UPDATE BY 915PM. HUMPHREY                                                  
BIL JJ 022/035 024/037 028 554446                                               
LVM .. 017/037 022/039 ... 553334                                               
HDN .. 020/037 022/040 ... 554446                                               
MLS .. 024/033 024/033 ... 556687                                               
4BQ .. 024/030 024/030 ... 556787                                               
BHK .. 023/030 023/028 ... 556887                                               
SHR JJ 022/032 020/034 025 556666                                               
NNNN  mt                                                                        

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
950 AM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT A SMALL PART            
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THE 12Z NGM AND RUC                
MODELS...ALONG WITH CURRENT OBSERVED TRENDS...ALL SUGGEST THAT                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTH ACORSS                  
NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDDAY. IT ALSO NOW APPEARS THAT               
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL NOT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER THIS               
EVENING.                                                                        
ALSO LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN                  
AROUND AND ALSO DROPPED WIND SPEEDS BACK SOME. KEPT THE MENTION OF              
SEVERE GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND               
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                             
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN IT WILL FINALLY             
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA.                                                     
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MORE            
LATER.                                                                          
.TUL...                                                                         
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES                          
     49...53...56>58...61>63...AND 67>77.                                       
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR ZONES                          
     1...2...10...11...19...20 AND 29.                                          
PLATE                                                                           
NNNN@   RUKWBC`   c ? N  ixx G   x E    ok                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
915 PM MST FRI APR 2 1999                                                       
LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR...SNOW MVG INTO NRN NEB AND EXTREME SRN                
PORTIONS OF SD.  THIS BAND EXTNDS W INTO WYM AND LKS LIKE IT WILL MV            
THRU WRN SD DURG NEXT 4-6 HRS...CURRENTLY DROPPING 0.10 - 0.15                  
INCHES LQD.  THUS 1-2 INCHES...MORE IN HILLS WITH INITIAL BAND WITH             
ADDNTL                                                                          
SNOW LATER TONIGHT.  THUS 2-4 LKS GD MOST AREAS.                                
CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES AND WATER VAPOR SUGGEST A MORE WESTERLY MVMT              
OF SYS.  JET ON E SIDE OF UPPER LOW IN CO AND JET ALSO MVG INTO W               
CST SHLD HELP SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SYS.  00Z RUC ALSO BEARS             
THIS OUT...WITH MORE PCPN ACRS NE WY AND FAR WRN SD.                            
WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THO MIDNIGHT CREW MAY HAVE TO            
UP TOTALS ABIT FOR NRN HILLS AND NE FOOTHILLS AS WINDS TURNING ABIT             
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.                                                          
.UNR...SNOW ADVISORY SDZ001-002-012>014-024-032-041>-044 FOR LATE               
       TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.                                                    
       SNOW ADVISORY SDZ046-047-049 LATE TONIGHT.                               
       WINTER STORM WATCH SDZ046-047-049 FOR SATURDAY.                          
LJC                                                                             
NNNN  sd                                                                        

STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                       
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR                                         
905 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
UPDATED ZONES TO LOWER POPS ACROSS WEST HALF AND END ALL WATCHES                
ACROSS THE STATE.  00Z RUC MODELS SHOWS ANOTHER WEAKER VORTICITY                
CENTER APPROACHING SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY 09Z AND WESTERN EDGE OF IR              
CLOUD SHIELD OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS APPARENTLY STOPPED ITS                    
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THUS PRECIPITATION MAY BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM            
THE SOUTH THAN ELSEWHERE.                                                       
.LIT...NONE                                                                     
NNNN  ar                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
718 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
LARGE BREAK IN THE ACTION ATTM. WL UPDATE AND INDICATE SHRA/TSRA LKLY           
N TO CAT S AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WITH WK WAVE MOVING INTO SRN IN AND              
LWLVL THETA E ADV TO INCRS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LTST RUC ALSO SHOWING               
INCRD CAPE UPSTRM AT 03Z.                                                       
.IWX...NONE                                                                     
PBM                                                                             
NNNN  in                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1050 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                      
HAVE UPDATED TO COVER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  RECENT RUC RUN HAS             
S/W ROTATING THRU ST BETWEEN 06-09Z WITH PCPN OUTPUT.                           
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FORSTER                                                                         
NNNN  ia                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1015 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                      
02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THAT HAS            
UNLEASHED A SQUALL LINE RACING EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.           
DEW POINTS ARE NOTED IN THE 60S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID          
70S AHEAD OF THIS LINE. IN ADDITION A QUASI-STATIONARY OLD OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY IS LAID OUT EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DIURNAL              
HEATING ALONG THIS KICKED OFF ONE LAST ROGUE THUNDERSTORM EARLIER THAT          
HAS SINCE DIED OUT IN OUR MORE STABLE AIRMASS. DEW POINTS IN EASTERN            
KENTUCKY ARE NOTICEABLY LOWER...RESIDING IN THE MID 50S.                        
THE SQUALL-LINE WILL MOVE EAST ALTERING ITS ENVIRONMENT EVEN AS IT              
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIR AND HEART OF THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE               
LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA INDICATE THAT THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS STEADILY          
EAST...WEAKENING SOMEWHAT BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAST KENTUCKY. THE             
MODELS ALSO KEEP THE BEST OMEGA NORTH WHEN IT DOES GET HERE WHICH MAKES         
SENSE GIVEN THE LESS STABLE AIR THERE AND PATH OF THE 500 MB VORT.              
SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION PUTS THE LINE...WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT...HERE              
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. UNTIL THEN DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF                      
PRECIPITATION. WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES.         
ZFP AMENDMENT OUT SHORTLY.                                                      
THE FOLLOWING IS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL           
FORECASTS ARE CONTAINED WITHIN PRODUCT SDFZFPKY.                                
LOZ EE 059/075 052/074 053 08853                                                
JKL WE 061/074 052/073 053 08653                                                
GREIF                                                                           
NNNN  ky                                                                        

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND                                    
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
925 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS TRW OVER ADIRONDAKS.  TRACK IS CURRENTLY ESE               
AND WOULD PASS N OF OUR F/A.  MORE TRW OVER WRN PA MOVING E.                    
EVENING RUC AND 18Z ETA SHOW NRN NY STORMS AT INTERSECTION OF                   
MINIMUM LI (MAX INSTABILITY) WITH MAXIMA OF VORT (LIKELY ASSTD WITH             
CDFNT).  THIS WEAKS WITH TIME AS IT STRETCHES THRU VT/NH.  PA STORMS            
ASSTD WITH S/W MOVING THRU UPPER RIDGE.  RIDGE WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN             
THOSE STORMS AS WELL.                                                           
BEST CHANCE OF ANY TRW REACHING US WOULD BE IN WRN ZONES.  WL ADD               
CHC TRW LATE TNGT THERE.  OTHERWISE CURRENT FCST OF BCMG CLDY WITH              
RW LIKELY LATE STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.  PCPN EXTRAPS TO OUR AREA                  
ROUGHLY 3-6 AM.                                                                 
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN 40S.  WITH CDFNT ON CANADIAN BORDER EXPECTED THRU            
HERE LATE AND 35-40 TEMPS JUST N OF IT...WOULD EXPECT MINS OF 35-40             
IN NRN ZONES AND 40-45 SOUTH.  MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FCST.               
MARINES...NO CHANGES.                                                           
.BOS...SCA.                                                                     
WTB                                                                             
NNNN  ma                                                                        

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
840 PM MST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS EVE.                                                   
BIGGEST CHALLENGE TGNT IS TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE H5 LOW OVER SE MT WL        
GO. 00Z ETA MOVS IT SLOLY N AND SLGTLY W THRU SUN BEFORE MOVG TO SASK BY        
MON. 03Z RUC SIMILAR WITH UPR LOW NOT MOVG MUCH TGNT. BANDS OF WRAP-ARND        
MSTR CONT TO MOV S INTO THE STATE ARND THE CIRCULATION WITH SNOW BEING          
RTPD E OF GTF. WL CONT WNTR STRM WRNG FOR ZNS 11 AND 13 TGNT AND INTO           
SUN THO NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED WE WL SEE HIGH AMTS OF SNW. HAVE DECIDED         
TO CANCEL WNTR STRM WTCH AND ISSUE SNW ADVRSYS FOR ZNS 10 AND 12.               
BELIEVE THESE ZNS WL SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OF NEW SNW BUT RMN FAR ENUF W        
FM THE HVY STUFF. NO HILITES FOR SW MT. WL ISSUE APPROPRIATE WSW AFTER          
ZNS GO OUT AND WL UPDATE SFP. EMANUEL                                           
GTF 6813 HLN 5513 HVR 8912                                                      
NNNN  mt                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO UPDATE TEMPS                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT                                            
850 PM MST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS HOUR. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE                
PRESSING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE EAST SLOPES. 00Z RUC MODEL HAS UPPER LOW          
PUSHING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. LAST FEW FRAMES OF BOTH WATER VAPOR AND            
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MORE OF WEST/NORTHWEST MOVEMENT. NEW        
ETA GRABS LOW AND TAKES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.              
MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON UPDATE. STRONG JET ENERGY        
DIVING INTO THE BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WILL            
HAVE TO WAIT TIL THIS ROUNDS THE TROUGH UNTIL ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT          
OF UPPER LOW WILL BE MADE. SO I DON'T LOOK FOR MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE LOW         
OVERNIGHT...IF ONLY A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST PUSH. SNOW BANDS ALREADY           
SHOWING UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WITH UPSLOPE CONTINUING. AS WRAP AROUND        
ENHANCEMENT SINKS SOUTH...WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF        
BILLINGS. WILL UP POPS AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL...EXCEPT LEAVE THEM               
SCATTERED AT LIVINGSTON PER COORDINATION WITH GTF. SNOW NOW BEING               
REPORTED AT RED LODGE...SO HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK IN LINE. COLDEST AIR          
UNDERNEATH THE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. DESPITE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE          
TO DROP LOWS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS ALREADY AT FORECAST LEVELS. OTHER            
THAN UPPING POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THE SNOW FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT        
PLAY WITH TOO MUCH. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING BY 915 PM. HUMPHREY             
BIL JE 024/035 024/041 026 55+322                                               
LVM .. 022/039 022/044 ... 554322                                               
HDN .. 022/038 022/043 ... 55+322                                               
MLS .. 016/033 023/039 ... 558423                                               
4BQ .. 017/030 024/036 ... 558423                                               
BHK .. 015/030 021/036 ... 558423                                               
SHR JJ 019/035 021/041 023 558423                                               
NNNN  mt                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
917 PM EST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
LOTS GOING ON THIS EVENING WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA POPPING IN WEAKLY                 
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF APCHG VORTMAX THAT DROVE CONVECTIVE                       
LINE THRU OH EARLIER. TT INDICES DID SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA THIS EVE.               
MEANWHILE...QSNTRY FRONT POISED TO MOVE SWD TONITE ONCE WAVE SLIPS              
EAST WITH MUCH SHARPER AMS DISCONTINUITY READY TO PLOW INTO REL MILD            
AND MOIST AIR. MDLS PRETTY CLOSE ON TIMING...BUT FROM                           
INITIALIZATIONS AND CURRENT MOVEMENT I'LL FOLLOW 18Z ETA. THIS IS A             
WEE BIT SLOWER THAN 12Z RUNS AND 21Z RUC SEEMS TO AGREE. FROPA SHUD             
BE LATER TONITE 08Z-12Z UP NORTH AND BY 15Z HERE IN SRN TIER...THEN             
15-18Z FOR NE PA. WITH SHRA IN AREA AND SWATH OF RA MOVG IN FROM WRN            
NY...WL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PCP FCST TONITE ASIDE FM             
INTRODUCING SOME TSRA. POOL OF 48 TT INDEX ALONG FRONT AS WELL AS               
DECENT MOIST CONVG AND THE DPVA SUPPORTING DEEPER LIFT TIPS MY HAND             
TO INCLUDE MENTION...ALTHO DIURNAL STABILIZATION WILL LIMIT TO ISOLD            
AT BEST. WILL ALSO BRING THAT NOTION INTO THE EARLY AM TO ACCOUNT FOR           
FRONTAL MOVEMENT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LONGER TERM DURATION WILL BE WY           
VALLEY WHERE FROPA WILL BE ENCROACHING ON LATER MORNING AND POSSIBLY            
A FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT DESTABILIZATION. LAYER FNTOGEN FORCING ALSO             
RATHER IMPRESSIVE IN NRN TIER UP THRU 18Z ALTHO MCON AND THTE ADVN              
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TWD BEST INSTAB.                                  
NOW TO TEMPS. ANOTHER NIGHTMARE WITH MARITIME INFLUENCE STILL INTO              
CATSKILLS AND SERNMOST PA COS...AND EXPECTED FROPA IN NRN ZONES BY              
SUNUP. WL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT OVER SRN TIER AND WY VALLEY IN THE MILD           
MOIST AIR BUT KEEP MINS IN 40S UP NORTH AND ALSO FAR EAST. WITH RAIN            
COOLED AIR PSBLY MIXING DOWN IN THE CONVECTION...IT'S ALL A CRAP                
SHOOT REALLY. TEMPS LIKELY TO FALL IN MUCH OF AREA SUN AND 2ND                  
PERIOD LOOKS GOOD THIS WAY.                                                     
.BGM...NONE.                                                                    
BREWSTER                                                                        
NNNN  ny                                                                        

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
810 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING ACROSS                  
EASTERN ZONES.  MESONET AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING              
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AS FORECAST.  LATEST RUC OUTPUT HAS BOUNDARY           
LAYER RH HANGING ON INTO THE MORNING IN EASTERN ZONES AND WITH HINTS            
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD SOME PATCHY FOG              
WORDING IN ARKANSAS ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.                       
THEREFORE...WILL UPDATE ZONES MAINLY FOR TIMING WORDING...OTHERWISE             
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.                                                      
HOWIESON                                                                        
FCSTID = 44                                                                     
.TUL...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
NNNN  ok                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
845 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
NO UPDATES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH ZONES.  RUC INDICATING ANY                
SIGNIFICANT LIFT WILL END NEAR MIDNIGHT AND MAY AS THE LATE EVENING             
PROGRESS REMOVE MENTION OF LIGHT PCPN IN ERN CWA WHEN PCPN ENDS.                
ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT OVER WRN CWA ATTM DO HAVE SOME                  
CONCERNS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL              
HELP IN PRODUCING FOG TNGT.  WL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND AMD IF NEW            
MDLS DICTATE.                                                                   
.FSD...NONE                                                                     
BR                                                                              
NNNN  sd                                                                        

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX                                   
900 PM CST SAT APR 3 1999                                                       
RECENT SFC ANALYSES SHOW THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT BOUNDARY FROM LRD               
TO HDO TO JUST WEST OF HOU TO NEAR BPT THEN LFK. KHGX CONTINUES TO              
SHOW MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM JAPSER AND NEWTON COUNTIES SWWRD TO            
HARRIS COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 2 TO 5              
INCHES OVER POLK AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES SINCE LATE AFTERNOON.                 
THE MAIN UPDATE ISSUE IS ASSESSING CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF              
THE NIGHT. THE IAH MAPS SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE CAPPED            
AND DRY LOWER LEVELS OF CRP AND LCH. THE IAH SOUNDINGS INDICATE                 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.80 INCHES...LI OF -7...AND CAPE AROUND              
1650 J/KG. THE HODOGRAPH IS STRAIGHT-LINE WITH VERY LITTLE SPEED IN             
THE LOWEST 3 KM...AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH (>0C) IS NEAR 4.5 KM.                
THE 00Z RUC INDICATES A DECREASE IN THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AFTER                  
06Z...AND OVERALL REDUCTION IN INSTABILITY AS CAPPING DEVELOPS.                 
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER ARE THE PROXIMITY AND NEARLY 90 DEGREE                
INCIDENCE ANGLE OF THE MOIST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BOUNDARY...AND              
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY FIRE UP                  
ACTIVITY IN DEEP SOUTH TX LATER.                                                
OVERALL...WILL GO WITH SEVERE THREAT ENDING AT 900 PM...AND HOLD OFF            
ON AN FFA IN FAVOR OF HIGH POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MENTION FOR            
THE NERN 1/4 OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE FOG AND LOW/NO POPS FOR MOST                 
EVERYWHERE ELSE.                                                                
.HGX...SCA 20 TO 50 NM OFFSHORE.                                                
31/36                                                                           
UPDATE PRELIMS...                                                               
CLL ET 056/077 065/079 062 034                                                  
IAH ET 064/078 068/080 064 834                                                  
GLS ET 068/076 069/077 068 844                                                  
NNNN  tx                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
215 AM EST SUN APR 4 1999                                                       
MAIN FCST PROBLEMS INCLUDE PCPN TIMING TODAY...CLOUD COVER/FOG                  
TONIGHT. 06Z SFC MAP SHOWED LO PRES SE MN WITH TRAILING CDFNT                   
S INTO MO. QSTNRY FNT ALSO EXTENDED E OF LOW INTO C MI.                         
MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES AND HAVE USED A MESH OF ALL. ETA/AVN               
AND RUC HANDLING CURRENT PCPN OVER SW INDIANA AND ERN IL THE BEST.              
HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY. IN LATER PDS...ETA                     
CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST AND WEAKEST WITH LIFTING NEXT UPPER LEVEL           
LOW OUT OF SW US AND INTO PLAINS. NGM/AVN DEEPER...SLOWER AND                   
MAINTAIN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTS PER                 
WATER VAPOR WITH UPSTREAM KICKER SEEN MOVING SE ACRS THE GULF OF                
AK. EXPECT THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACK AS                 
FIRST...CLOSER TO NGM/AVN SOLUTIONS.                                            
FOR TODAY...CURRENT AREA OF PCPN TO MOVE N AND NE AHEAD OF SFC LOW.             
INSTABILITY NOT THAT GREAT BUT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THUNDER MENTION               
THIS MORNING. LATEST 88D MOSAIC SHOWS EMEDDED HIGHER RETURNS AND LDS            
SHOWING SOME CG STRIKES ERN IL. PCPN SHOULD END ACRS WRN AREAS DURG             
THE AM AND FAR ERN AREAS IN THE LATE PM. MODELS DO HANG ONTO AN                 
AREA OF HIGHER RH FM NW OHIO TO NE INDIANA AND SRN LWR MI THRU TNGT.            
THIS LOOKS TO BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO INVERSION AS SEEN ON            
FCST SOUNDINGS. ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP OVR WRN            
AREAS TNGT. THIS WL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. NEGATIVE              
FACTOR WL BE TIGHTING PRES GRADIENT FM NRN HI AND DVLPG PLAINS LOW.             
SRLY FLOW REDEVEOPS MONDAY AS SECOND SW US LOW LIFTS OUT OF PLAINS              
IN RESPONSE TO KICKER. NGM/AVN HANDLE MOVEMENT THE BEST. FURTHER                
WEST POSITION WL KEEP PCPN OUT OF FA TIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUE.                   
TEMPS A BIT TRICKY WITH NRN FNT SAGGING S THEN CDFNT TO W MOVING                
THROUGH. ANY SS TODAY SHOULD HELP TEMPS REBOUND. EXPECT READINGS                
CLOSER TO WARMER FWC IN WEST WITH SS AND CLOSER TO COOLER FAN IN NE             
AND E WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND RAIN.                                           
SBN TB 066/043 063/046 064 1451-                                                
FWA TB 063/043 062/045 064 1482-                                                
AOH TB 064/045 063/046 065 1482-                                                
.IWX...NONE.                                                                    
LASHLEY                                                                         
NNNN  in                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
455 AM EDT SUN APR 4 1999                                                       
08Z SFC ANAL SHOWS AREA OF LOW PRES GRAD FILLING AS IT DRIFTS NE                
ACROSS ERN MN.  NRLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY STRETCHING ACROSS THE             
SRN GRTLKS PRGD BY MODELS TO REMAIN NRLY STATIONARY TDA AND THEN WASH           
OUT TNGT AS UPR SUPPORT IS LOST.  LEAD VORT LOBE ROTATES N IN SW FLOW           
ALOFT PER GOES-8 WV DATA JUST BRUSHING WRN GRTLKS TDA.  PROGRESS EAST           
OF THIS VORT INHIBITED BY BLOCKING SHRTWV RIDGE ACROSS CNTRL GRTLKS             
AND UPR LOW FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVR CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS MARITIMES            
LOW MOVES OFF SHORE BY 36-48 HRS... NEXT POTENT SRN STREAM UPR LVL              
TROF ALLOWED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 00Z TUES.                         
PRIMARY FCST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS POTENTIAL FOR FREZ RAIN/ICING NW           
AND N CNTRL U.P. TDA.  PCPN BREAKING OUT ACROSS CNTRL U.P. SINCE 06Z            
AS ISENT LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTH OF SFC BNDRY.  TEMPS NEAR              
FREZ OVR INTERIOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MQT CO ALLOWING FOR SOME                 
FREEZING OF RAIN... HOWEVER GREATER INTENSITY RAIN ACTUALLY MELTING             
SOME OF THE ICE ALREADY ACCUMULATED ON ABV GROUND SURFACES.  AWIPS              
LAPS SFC/BNDLYR STREAMLINES DEPICTING FLOW ACROSS U.P. BCMG MORE                
EASTERLY AS SFC HI TO THE NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR DUMBBELLS TO THE                 
EAST... AND LOW TO THE SW GRADUALLY FILLS.                                      
MORE EASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN MORE MODIFIED AIR TO ADVECT INTO                
CNTRL/WRN U.P. RATHER THAN LOWER DWPT/TEMP AIR TO THE NE OF LK                  
SUPERIOR... WHICH WILL LIMIT DEPTH TO WHICH SUB FREEZING SFC LAYER              
WILL DVLP TDA.  OTHER LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE             
WHICH GIVEN LACK OF LOW LVL CAA SHUD STILL RESULT IN MINOR (1-3 DEG             
F) DIURNAL RISE IN SFC TEMPS DESPITE CLDS/PCPN WHICH NEAR 32 DEG IS             
ACTUALLY CRITICAL.  ALSO SHALLOWNESS OF SFC SUB-FREEZING LAYER MAY BE           
INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR GREATER INTENSITY PCPN DROPLETS TO BECOME             
SUPERCOOLED BEFORE STRIKING THE SFC GIVEN DEEP WARM LAYER ALOFT.                
HENCE XPECT GREATEST ICING THREAT TO EXIST IN COLDER HIGHER TERRAIN             
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LK SUPERIOR ACROSS FAR NW-N U.P. (HOUGHTON-                 
KEWEENAW-BARAGA-MQT COS) AS PRGD BY MODEL 1000-850 THICKNESS DATA AND           
FCST SOUNDINGS. AREA OF PCPN LIFTING N ACROSS MN/WI SHUD INCREASE AND           
OVRSPRD WRN UP MI THIS MRNG AS 06Z RUC AND 00Z ETA SHOWING                      
STRENGTHENING ISENT LIFT THRU THE 285-290K LAYER. RUC SHOWING DECENT            
DYNAMIC COOLING AT H85 DESPITE WAA PATTERN INDICATIVE OF                        
INTENSIFYING ISENT LIFT.  STRONG ADIABATIC ASCENT COMBINED WITH                 
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE ALOFT PER FCST SOUNDING DATA AND THETA            
CROSS SECTIONS WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER OVR THE W HALF OF THE U.P.            
TDA AS WELL.  LIGHTNING DATA SHOWING A DECREASING TREND IN STRIKES              
ACROSS ERN MN/NW WIS SINCE 06Z HWVR LITTLE DEC IN RADAR                         
REFLECTIVITIES PER GRB/MPX/DLH MOSAIC.                                          
GIVEN WARM GROUND PER PREVS WEEK OF ABV FREZ TEMPS... AND SFC TEMPS             
CLOSE TO 32 F... DO NOT XPECT ICING TO BECOME A PROBLEM ON HIGHWAYS             
AND SIDEWALKS.  MAIN THREAT IS TO TREES AND POWER LINES AND OTHER               
ABOVE GROUND STRUCTURES.  STRONG EAST WINDS... ESPECIALLY OVR EXPOSED           
EAST SIDE OF KEWEENAW MAY AGGRAVATE THREAT TO TREES/POWER LINES.                
.MQT...ICE STORM WARNING... HOUGHTON-KEWEENAW-BARAGA-MARQUETTE CO/S...          
       TODAY.                                                                   
ED F                                                                            
NNNN  mi                                                                        

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
642 AM CDT SUN APR 4 1999                                                       
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CWA         
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE 09Z RUC MODEL INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL         
INCREASE ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND FORECAST SOUNDING FOR SJT SUGGESTS         
THAT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WILL SEND WRKSJ1         
MOMENTARILY TO INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY ALL AREAS TODAY. PRESENCE OF MORE         
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE HIGHS...SO WILL ADJUST DOWNWARD TO MID 70S.               
19                                                                              
NNNN  tx                                                                        

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK                                               
1030 AM CDT SUN APR 4 1999                                                      
HAD TO MAKE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BASED ON OBSERVED               
DATA AND NEW 12Z NGM AND RUC MODELS...ALTHOUGH NGM IS STILL CLUELESS            
ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.                                                   
MESONET DATA SHOWS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING             
AND 60+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE STARTING TO CREEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST             
CORNER OF OKLAHOMA. 65+ DEWPOINTS NOT FAR BEHIND AND AS SOUTHEAST               
WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE BACK           
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.                      
NGM AND RUC ARE BOTH CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT CONVECTION ACROSS THE           
ARKLATEX REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING NORTH INTO           
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.                      
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NGM DEPICTS STRONG LIFT NEAR PONCA CITY            
BY LATE AFTERNOON SO MAY ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AS                   
MOISTURE AND HENCE INSTABILITY REALLY INCREASES BY LATE AFTERNOON. SO           
WILL ADD SOME POPS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST            
AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED WIND DIRECTION TO                   
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON.                            
FOR TONIGHT REMOVED ALL TEMPORAL WORDING AND ALSO SHIFTED THE                   
EMPHASIS FROM STRATIFORM RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO A                   
CONVECTIVE EVENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT             
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FIRST 6 TO 9 HOURS OF THE PERIOD                
BEFORE AN EXPECTED SQUALL LINE RACES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LAST            
3 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AM MORE IMPRESSED BY THE SEVERE                 
POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT THAN I WAS WITH THE LAST ONE AND LOOK WHAT            
HAPPENED WITH THAT ONE.                                                         
LEFT MIMIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR TONIGHT SINCE SQUALL LINE AND               
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW SHOULD DROP READINGS TO THOSE FORECAST TOWARDS               
MORNING. PRIOR TO THAT TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 65 TO 70            
RANGE IN MOST AREAS. DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE DEWPOINT VALUES IN              
THE RDF PRODUCT MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT WE WERE THINKING YESTERDAY AND           
WITH WHAT OBSERVED DATA SUGGESTS WILL INDEED OCCUR. SO OBVIOUSLY                
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MUCH HIGHER WITH THESE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THAN            
IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITH THE 40S WE CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST.                     
MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM                  
YESTERDAY SLOWED MORE THAN FORECAST WILL LEAVE EVERYTHING ALONE FOR             
THAT TIME PERIOD.                                                               
.TUL...                                                                         
OK...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
PLATE                                                                           
NNNN  ok