AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORRECTED TIME                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
210 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
...FIRST SIGNIFICANT FREEZE OF THE SEASON LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY                
TUESDAY MORNING...                                                              
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WATER VAPOR/RUC H5 COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH              
EXITING THE EAST COAST...WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE                
OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS POISED TO              
MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. CLOSER TO HOME...                
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OH VALLEY TO TX. REINFORCEMENT              
OF CANADIAN AIRMASS IS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTH FL. VERY DRY AIR (DEW              
POINTS IN THE TEENS) CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD THROUGH AL...SW GA AND            
THE FL PANHANDLE. TEMPS RANGE FROM 48 AT DOTHAN AL TO 62 AT CROSS               
CITY FL. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS            
SUSTAINED NEAR 15 MPH. GUSTS RANGED FROM 16 TO 25 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF            
THE REGION THIS AFTN. OVER THE MARINE AREA...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED              
SLIGHTLY...19-22 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS RANGE FROM 7-9 FT               
OFFSHORE TO 3-6 FT NEAR SHORE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...                                
MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL BE                    
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PLOWING SEWD FROM CANADA           
DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY             
WEAKEN AS IT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...RESULTING IN AN                 
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY ON             
WEDNESDAY.                                                                      
TONIGHT...FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS STILL EXPECTED               
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST TWO MOS CYCLES HAS SHOWN SLIGHTLY WARMER            
LOWS FOR TONIGHT. THUS HAVE SCALED BACK THE HARD FREEZE WARNING AREA            
TO INCLUDE A SMALL PORTION OF SERN AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE               
WHERE MIN TEMPS OF 25 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS ARE               
EXPECTED. A GENERAL FREEZE WARNING IS PREDICTED FOR THE REMAINDER               
OF THE CWFA WITH MIN TEMPS FROM 26 TO 32 BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. WITH               
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...THERE WILL BE NO FROST CONCERNS.                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH AL/GA DURING THE               
DAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. WITH WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND FULL             
INSOLATION...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN                
TODAY...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. THE RIDGE               
MOVES JUST EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD STILL BE              
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO PROVIDE ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS TO            
FALL BELOW FREEZING (A LIGHT FREEZE) EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR                
MOST INLAND AREAS. IT WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE COAST. SMALLER            
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST IN               
THE NORMALLY COLDER INLAND AREAS.                                               
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE EAST OF THE REGION...WARM            
AIR ADVECTION RETURNS AND HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO NORMAL VALUES. A               
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ERN STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY            
THURSDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER                
THAN TUESDAY NIGHT.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                         
GLOBAL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STRONG RIDGE ACROSS ROCKIES              
AND TROUGH OVER ERN TWO-THIRDS OF CONUS DOWN INTO THE SE STATES.                
ONE SHORTWAVE AFFECTS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN U.S. WITH ANOTHER              
ONE DIVING SEWD OVER THE E CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY. AT SURFACE...              
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS DOWN GREAT PLAINS. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE                   
DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING              
EAST. HOWEVER...A STRONG HIGH AND ASSOCD RIDGE BEGIN TO DROP RAPIDLY            
SEWD PROVIDING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR LATE THURSDAY                
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY INTO NE GULF LIKELY KEEPING ANY MOISTURE                   
CONFINED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS LEAVES MUCH COLDER             
THAN NORMAL AIR OVER NE GULF INTO SATURDAY AND WOULD NOT BE                     
SURPRISED TO SEE FREEZING TEMPS SAT MORNING. BY SATURDAY                        
AFTERNOON...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH EXITS EAST INTO ATLC REPLACED              
BY BUILDING RIDGE. LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW VEERS TO EASTERLY AND               
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE TO AOA NORMAL BY SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS             
TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS.                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. AS             
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN             
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE             
THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE             
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY REINFORCING THE COLD AIRMASS. IN               
ITS WAKE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS            
AND SEAS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
BASICALLY A WIND FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...WITH LITTLE CHANCE             
FOR ANY REDUCED VSBYS TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE                 
NORTH TO NORTH NORTHWEST WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS. WINDS WILL            
BECOME NEAR CALM AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. TOMORROW...EXPECT                   
NORTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...                                                                
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL VERIFY THIS AFTN FOR OUR FL AND GA ZONES DUE             
TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH. THE                
EXCEPTION WOULD BE SERN AL WHERE THE KBDI VALUES REMAIN BELOW 500.              
FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE RIDGE CLOSER TO THE REGION...WINDS WILL BE               
LIGHTER THAN TODAY. WE STILL EXPECT LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH FOR THE            
FL AND GA ZONES AND HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCHES TO RED FLAG WARNINGS.             
FOR SERN AL...WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT AND LET THE MID SHIFT               
EVALUATE THE SITUATION. NO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TALLAHASSEE  27 63 31 68/ 00 00 05 10                                           
PANAMA CITY  31 63 40 67/ 00 00 05 10                                           
DOTHAN       26 59 33 65/ 00 00 05 10                                           
ALBANY       27 60 31 67/ 00 00 05 10                                           
VALDOSTA     28 62 33 69/ 00 00 05 10                                           
CROSS CITY   31 66 37 71/ 00 00 05 10                                           
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY              
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR COFFEE...DALE AND GENEVA COUNTIES.                     
     FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY                   
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR HENRY AND HOUSTON COUNTIES.                            
     RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTN.                           
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY               
     AFTN.                                                                      
GA...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY                   
     TUESDAY MORNING.                                                           
     RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.                               
     RED FLAG WARNING TUESDAY AFTN.                                             
FL...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY              
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND WALTON AND HOLMES COUNTIES.                     
     FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY                   
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES.                                
     RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.                               
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY                   
     TUESDAY EVENING.                                                           
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OFFSHORE LEGS.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...WATSON                                                               
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI                                         
LONG TERM...BLOCK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1030 AM CST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST MORE MORE CLOUD COVER AND STRONGER WINDS TODAY.            
KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SNOW PACK AND LOWER 30S             
ACROSS SE IL.                                                                   
16Z/10 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 1041 MB POLAR HIGH PRESSURE             
OVER EAST TEXAS AND RIDGING NE ACROSS KY/OHIO VALLEY. WEAK 1017 MB              
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT               
EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL IA. ALOFT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS              
ACROS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE U.S. WITH A DECENT SHORT WAVE NEAR              
THE MN/WI/IA BORDER. OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 6 TO 8 KFT SINKING            
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD I-70 LATE THIS MORNING WITH AREAS ALONG AND            
SOUTH OF I-70 ENJOYING SUNNY SKIES. FLURRIES OCCURRING IN EAST/WEST             
BAND FROM LACON TO PONTIAC TO NW INDIANA. SW WINDS PICKED UP TO                 
BREEZY LEVELS BY MID MORNING AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 32 MPH IN             
EAST CENTRAL IL AT CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER              
TEENS AND LOWER 20S EXCEPT 24 TO 28F FROM MATTOON SOUTH. BREEZY                 
WINDS GIVING WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SNOW             
PACK NW OF MATTOON.                                                             
RUC AND NAM/WRF TAKE SHORT WAVE SE ACROSS WI/LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON            
AND EVENING KEEPING BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IN THE              
GREAT LAKES REGION NE OF CENTRAL IL. LOW LEVELS BELOW 700 MB VERY               
DRY PER ILX/DVN 12Z SOUNDINGS SO TOUGH TO GET EVEN FLURRIES IN NE               
AREAS. THIS FEATURE THOUGH WILL BRING ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF MID              
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WHICH MOVE SPREAD INTO SE IL DURING MIDDAY                 
WHILE DECREASING FROM THE IL RIVER VALLEY NW BY MID AFTERNOON.                  
BREEZY SW WINDS TO SETTLE DOWN TOWARD EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER             
EAST TX/LA NOSES RIDGES BACK NORTH INTO IL TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY CLIMB             
ANOTHER 3 TO 5 DEGREES WITH ALL THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD             
SNOW PACK WITH STILL 6 TO 12 INCH SNOW DEPTH FROM SPRINGFIELD TO                
ROANOKE NW.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
NOT MANY CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MIDWEST CONTINUES             
TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN.                  
BOTTOM LINE WILL BE COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH            
OF THE WEEK.                                                                    
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                         
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM OF INTEREST CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR                  
IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE             
QUITE WELL...WITH BOTH THE NAM-WRF AND GFS TRACKING IT INTO THE                 
GREAT LAKES TODAY.  PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS IN ADVANCE              
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...RESULTING IN                  
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  AREA FORECAST               
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY...SO THINK ANY SNOW FLURRIES WILL REMAIN             
FURTHER NORTH.  WAA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BOOST 850MB TEMPS INTO             
THE -4 TO -7C RANGE...HOWEVER INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS             
BACK.  GIVEN THE TREND OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL ONCE AGAIN                   
UNDERCUT THE COLDEST NUMERIC GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH             
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE SNOW-PACK...TO THE                 
LOWER 30S SOUTH OF I-70.                                                        
SKIES SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...AS                  
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE LEADS TO MARKED MID-LEVEL                    
DRYING.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN            
STORE WITH TEMPS DIPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND WEST             
OF I-55.  WAA INCREASES ON TUESDAY...AS NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM BEGINS              
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO CLIMB              
ABOVE 0C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S                 
ACROSS SNOW-FREE AREAS.  HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL LIKELY HOVER IN THE               
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SNOW-COVERED ILLINOIS RIVER                  
VALLEY.                                                                         
NEXT CLIPPER STILL ON TRACK TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY            
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  00Z 4 DEC MODELS A BIT MORE ROBUST               
WITH MOISTURE PROFILES THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS                     
SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT QPF.  WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT                 
CHANCE FOR FLURRIES...BEGINNING ACROSS THE NW CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT                
TUESDAY...SPREADING EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY.                                       
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN                 
CHANGE BEGINNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW RISING            
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE                 
PLAINS.  WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS NOW GROWING                
THAT TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL               
MEAN HIGHS AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH COOLER READINGS OVER THE                    
PERSISTENT SNOW-COVER ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY.  MODELS ARE             
ALSO SHOWING A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT               
SUNDAY...AS UPPER FLOW TRIES TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY.  GFS IS            
BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...HOWEVER AM NOT BUYING              
INTO THIS JUST YET...OPTING INSTEAD TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WITH AN            
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/BARNES                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
649 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
AVIATION...7PM MON-7PM TUE                                                      
A BAND OF AC AT AROUND 10000 FEET WAS SHOWN ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND           
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND INTO           
NORTHERN KENTUCKY. THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST...AND REACH ALL              
THREE TAF SITES BY AROUND 3Z. WENT WITH FEW100 AS THE CLOUDS MOVE               
IN...THEN BKN AS THE BAND OF CLOUDS MOVES OVER THE AREA. MODEL                  
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES INDICATE SOME SC BETWEEN 2 AND 3 THOUSAND             
FEET FORMING TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE SCT AT JKL...AND FEW IN             
COVERAGE AT LOZ AND SME. THESE SHOULD WORK THEIR WAY OUT OF THE AREA            
BY AROUND 12Z. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW             
CI MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
400 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.             
FOR TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES...BASED ON LAST NIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES AND           
RATE OF DECREASE...ANALYSIS OF -8 TO -11 DEGREE C AIR MASS AT 850               
HPA...AND LATEST MOS NUMBERS...WENT A DEGREE COOLER THAN COOLEST MOS            
TEMPS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD. INSPITE OF INCREASING                 
CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT...TEMPS WERE STILL ABLE TO DROP FAIRLY                   
STEADILY...AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS MID TO HIGH LEVEL STUFF.              
ANTICIPATE THE SAME SCENARIO TONIGHT...SO WENT A BIT COOLER WITH                
TEMPS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS...NOT ANTICIPATING                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WENT WITH A                    
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS. TWO THINGS WILL              
BE AT WORK TOMORROW FOR TEMPS. FIRST WILL BE DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW AND THE SECOND BEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A                
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS                           
WEEK...BRINGING WITH THEM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS                 
SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THE WARMEST                    
MOS...WHICH IS THE MET...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW                
TEMPS TO STAY UP JUST A BIT MORE THAN THE COOLER MAV MOS.                       
OVERALL TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS AT                   
LONDON...A DEGREE WARMER THAN WARMEST MOS AT JACKSON DUE TO CLOUD               
COVER AND WINDS...AND A BIT COOLER THAN THE LOWEST MOS AT SME DUE TO            
ITS VALLEY LOCATION AND WIND FETCH ACROSS LAKE CUMBERLAND. IT DOESNT            
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE             
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY TOMORROW NIGHT...SO FELT A BIT COOLER TEMPS WERE             
WARRANTED DOWN THERE. WITH AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR MODERATED TEMPERATURES               
AND A SMALLER DIURNAL INCREASE IN TEMPS THAN NORMAL. WITH MAV A BIT             
TOO COOL AT JACKSON...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...WITH A BIAS            
TOWARD THE MAV. WENT A BIT COOLER THAN LOWEST MOS FOR WED HIGHS AT              
LOZ AND SME. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
LOWS...GOING AT OR JUST ABOVE MAV MOS...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION               
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY A CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT              
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS CLIPPER WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT THAN             
THE ONES THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                         
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL ISNT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND IT WILL BE             
MOVING BY RATHER QUICKLY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING ABOUT A 12               
HOUR PERIOD WITH GOOD MOISTURE. INITIALLY THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE              
ATMOSPHERE...FROM 0Z THU UNTIL 8Z OR SO...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER BUT               
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER 8Z. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH            
MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE             
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THESE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO FLURRIES                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS TRAILING THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES OFF TO              
THE NORTHEAST.                                                                  
MADE A FEW SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS...GOING WITH A SLIGHT                
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEERING TO THE WEST AS THE CLIPPER MOVES BY               
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST             
PART SO ONLY A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THE WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS AND            
SKY COVER. FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                        
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GFS              
AND ECMWF BOTH HANDLING LONG TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PRETTY WELL.                
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKED GOOD. YET                 
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON              
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND            
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT RACES OF TO THE            
EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH                 
PRESSURE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL            
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE BY THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A                   
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING              
AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.                                                     
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEMED A BIT COOL...SO THESE WERE                     
INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON SKY COVER FORECAST AND 12Z MEXMOS                 
DATA. WITH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES            
WILL WARM A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND.             
WENT A BIT WARMER WITH SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS AS WELL...BUT STILL BELOW              
MOS NUMBERS DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS WERE INCREASED A BIT AS WELL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND                        
SUNDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.               
REST OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                             
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE POINT THAT            
THE FLURRIES HAVE ENDED. RADAR STILL SHOWING RETURNS FROM OUR ERN               
COUNTIES BUT CALLS CONFIRM THAT THIS IS A DISSIPATING...UPSLOPE CLOUD           
DECK AT ABOUT 2K. COLD START TO DAY AND PREVAILING CLOUDS THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED GIVEN LOW ANGLE OF SUN.           
450 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND IS                
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS               
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID DAY.              
HENCE... HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST PACKAGE FOR THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE. THURSDAYS                     
SHORTWAVE...AND CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE              
0Z RUN. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE                
MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH AS               
WELL. THEREFORE KEPT THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                       
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS FOR CCF PURPOSES. MOST                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO DROP TODAYS HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF                    
DEGREES. WILL HAVE EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE                   
MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.             
MODELS...MOS GUIDANCE DO HAVE WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE                     
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS TAKES PLACE AFTER PEAK HEATING              
OF THE DAY. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...FELT LOWER WAS THE WAY TO GO.               
1059 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT...                                                 
RADAR TRENDS IN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO SHOW SOME FLURRIES ALONG             
THE H5 TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE LESS           
MOISTURE AT 925 AND 900 MB IN OUR CWA WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE             
LESS CHANCE FOR FLURRIES...BUT I BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A FEW                   
SNOWFLAKES WITH THE SC LAYER MOVING IN. ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADD            
THESE TO THE FORECAST. KEPT THE FLURRIES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                    
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE SC LAYER BECOMING MORE            
DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPDATED TEXT FORECAST IS ALREADY ISSUED.            
915 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                       
SHORT TERM...THE REST OF TONIGHT...                                             
AREA OF CI WITH SOME AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER              
NARROW BAND OF LOWER AC WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN            
H5 TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 6Z           
AND 10Z OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBS...AN           
AREA OF SC WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA. THERE WERE EVEN A              
FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN THE SURFACE OB...AND DEPICTED ON WEATHER               
SERVICE RADAR...NEAR IND. THE GFS IS SHOWING LOWER RH IN THE LOWER              
LEVELS AS COMPARED TO THE RUC AND THE WRF. ATTM...I BELIEVE THE                 
HIGHER LOWER LEVEL RH/S SHOWN IN THE RUC AND WRF ARE MORE REASONABLE.           
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR            
EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE SC OVER INDIANA SHOULD WORK ITS WAY               
INTO OUR CWA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE MOST            
OF THE NIGHT. ALSO OPENED UP A TEMPERATURE RANGE IN SOME AREAS                  
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 TO 20 WITH GOOD CAA AT           
850 MB. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE DROPPING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF AROUND           
-3 DEG C...TO AROUND -12 DEG C BY 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED                  
FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WJM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
400 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO WENT WITH GFS FOR CONSISTENCY.             
FOR TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES...BASED ON LAST NIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES AND           
RATE OF DECREASE...ANALYSIS OF -8 TO -11 DEGREE C AIR MASS AT 850               
HPA...AND LATEST MOS NUMBERS...WENT A DEGREE COOLER THAN COOLEST MOS            
TEMPS FOR TONIGHTS LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD. INSPITE OF INCREASING                 
CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT...TEMPS WERE STILL ABLE TO DROP FAIRLY                   
STEADILY...AS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WAS MID TO HIGH LEVEL STUFF.              
ANTICIPATE THE SAME SCENARIO TONIGHT...SO WENT A BIT COOLER WITH                
TEMPS. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS...NOT ANTICIPATING                
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT. WENT WITH A                    
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS FOR TUESDAYS HIGHS. TWO THINGS WILL              
BE AT WORK TOMORROW FOR TEMPS. FIRST WILL BE DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY               
FLOW AND THE SECOND BEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. A                
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THIS                           
WEEK...BRINGING WITH THEM MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS                 
SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THE WARMEST                    
MOS...WHICH IS THE MET...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW                
TEMPS TO STAY UP JUST A BIT MORE THAN THE COOLER MAV MOS.                       
OVERALL TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV AND MET MOS AT                   
LONDON...A DEGREE WARMER THAN WARMEST MOS AT JACKSON DUE TO CLOUD               
COVER AND WINDS...AND A BIT COOLER THAN THE LOWEST MOS AT SME DUE TO            
ITS VALLEY LOCATION AND WIND FETCH ACROSS LAKE CUMBERLAND. IT DOESNT            
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE             
HAL ROGERS PARKWAY TOMORROW NIGHT...SO FELT A BIT COOLER TEMPS WERE             
WARRANTED DOWN THERE. WITH AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND                  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY...LOOKING FOR MODERATED TEMPERATURES               
AND A SMALLER DIURNAL INCREASE IN TEMPS THAN NORMAL. WITH MAV A BIT             
TOO COOL AT JACKSON...WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MOS...WITH A BIAS            
TOWARD THE MAV. WENT A BIT COOLER THAN LOWEST MOS FOR WED HIGHS AT              
LOZ AND SME. WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO MAV MOS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT                   
LOWS...GOING AT OR JUST ABOVE MAV MOS...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION               
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THAT WILL ACCOMPANY A CLIPPER SYSTEM AS IT              
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.                                                          
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS CLIPPER WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE WITH IT THAN             
THE ONES THAT HAVE TRAVERSED THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.                         
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL ISNT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND IT WILL BE             
MOVING BY RATHER QUICKLY. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING ABOUT A 12               
HOUR PERIOD WITH GOOD MOISTURE. INITIALLY THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE              
ATMOSPHERE...FROM 0Z THU UNTIL 8Z OR SO...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER BUT               
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AFTER 8Z. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH            
MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE             
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...THESE WILL GRADUALLY TAPER TO FLURRIES                    
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS TRAILING THE CLIPPER AS IT MOVES OFF TO              
THE NORTHEAST.                                                                  
MADE A FEW SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS...GOING WITH A SLIGHT                
INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEERING TO THE WEST AS THE CLIPPER MOVES BY               
WEDNESDAY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST             
PART SO ONLY A FEW SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS             
TO THE WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANGES MADE TO POPS AND            
SKY COVER. FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.                                        
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...                                           
ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. GFS              
AND ECMWF BOTH HANDLING LONG TERM SYNOPTIC PATTERNS PRETTY WELL.                
WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKED GOOD. YET                 
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON              
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND            
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AS IT RACES OF TO THE            
EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH                 
PRESSURE FRIDAY...SATURDAY...AND MOST OF SUNDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL            
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE BY THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A                   
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY EVENING              
AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.                                                     
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES SEEMED A BIT COOL...SO THESE WERE                     
INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON SKY COVER FORECAST AND 12Z MEXMOS                 
DATA. WITH PLENTY OF COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES            
WILL WARM A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DURING THE WEEKEND.             
WENT A BIT WARMER WITH SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS AS WELL...BUT STILL BELOW              
MOS NUMBERS DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. OVERNIGHT               
LOWS WERE INCREASED A BIT AS WELL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND                        
SUNDAY...ACCOUNTING FOR INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER.               
REST OF FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE POINT THAT            
THE FLURRIES HAVE ENDED. RADAR STILL SHOWING RETURNS FROM OUR ERN               
COUNTIES BUT CALLS CONFIRM THAT THIS IS A DISSIPATING...UPSLOPE CLOUD           
DECK AT ABOUT 2K. COLD START TO DAY AND PREVAILING CLOUDS THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED GIVEN LOW ANGLE OF SUN.           
450 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND IS                
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS               
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID DAY.              
HENCE... HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST PACKAGE FOR THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE. THURSDAYS                     
SHORTWAVE...AND CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE              
0Z RUN. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE                
MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH AS               
WELL. THEREFORE KEPT THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                       
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS FOR CCF PURPOSES. MOST                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO DROP TODAYS HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF                    
DEGREES. WILL HAVE EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE                   
MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.             
MODELS...MOS GUIDANCE DO HAVE WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE                     
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS TAKES PLACE AFTER PEAK HEATING              
OF THE DAY. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...FELT LOWER WAS THE WAY TO GO.               
1059 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT...                                                 
RADAR TRENDS IN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO SHOW SOME FLURRIES ALONG             
THE H5 TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE LESS           
MOISTURE AT 925 AND 900 MB IN OUR CWA WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE             
LESS CHANCE FOR FLURRIES...BUT I BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A FEW                   
SNOWFLAKES WITH THE SC LAYER MOVING IN. ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADD            
THESE TO THE FORECAST. KEPT THE FLURRIES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                    
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE SC LAYER BECOMING MORE            
DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPDATED TEXT FORECAST IS ALREADY ISSUED.            
915 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                       
SHORT TERM...THE REST OF TONIGHT...                                             
AREA OF CI WITH SOME AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER              
NARROW BAND OF LOWER AC WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN            
H5 TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 6Z           
AND 10Z OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBS...AN           
AREA OF SC WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA. THERE WERE EVEN A              
FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN THE SURFACE OB...AND DEPICTED ON WEATHER               
SERVICE RADAR...NEAR IND. THE GFS IS SHOWING LOWER RH IN THE LOWER              
LEVELS AS COMPARED TO THE RUC AND THE WRF. ATTM...I BELIEVE THE                 
HIGHER LOWER LEVEL RH/S SHOWN IN THE RUC AND WRF ARE MORE REASONABLE.           
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR            
EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE SC OVER INDIANA SHOULD WORK ITS WAY               
INTO OUR CWA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE MOST            
OF THE NIGHT. ALSO OPENED UP A TEMPERATURE RANGE IN SOME AREAS                  
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 TO 20 WITH GOOD CAA AT           
850 MB. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE DROPPING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF AROUND           
-3 DEG C...TO AROUND -12 DEG C BY 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED                  
FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                             
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AR                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY                                             
1103 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE POINT THAT            
THE FLURRIES HAVE ENDED. RADAR STILL SHOWING RETURNS FROM OUR ERN               
COUNTIES BUT CALLS CONFIRM THAT THIS IS A DISSIPATING...UPSLOPE CLOUD           
DECK AT ABOUT 2K. COLD START TO DAY AND PREVAILING CLOUDS THIS                  
MORNING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED GIVEN LOW ANGLE OF SUN.           
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
450 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
A SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND IS                
STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ACROSS              
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS               
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID DAY.              
HENCE... HAVE INCLUDED FLURRIES IN THE FCST PACKAGE FOR THIS                    
MORNING.                                                                        
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST PACKAGE. THURSDAYS                     
SHORTWAVE...AND CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE              
0Z RUN. FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE SHOWING MORE                
MOISTURE AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH AS               
WELL. THEREFORE KEPT THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.                                                       
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS FOR CCF PURPOSES. MOST                      
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO DROP TODAYS HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF                    
DEGREES. WILL HAVE EXTRA CLOUD COVER TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE                   
MORNING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY LIGHT HOURS.             
MODELS...MOS GUIDANCE DO HAVE WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE                     
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT              
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS TAKES PLACE AFTER PEAK HEATING              
OF THE DAY. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...FELT LOWER WAS THE WAY TO GO.               
1059 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                      
SHORT TERM...REST OF TONIGHT...                                                 
RADAR TRENDS IN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO SHOW SOME FLURRIES ALONG             
THE H5 TROUGH AXIS/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE LESS           
MOISTURE AT 925 AND 900 MB IN OUR CWA WHICH WOULD INDICATE A LITTLE             
LESS CHANCE FOR FLURRIES...BUT I BELIEVE THERE COULD BE A FEW                   
SNOWFLAKES WITH THE SC LAYER MOVING IN. ISSUED ANOTHER UPDATE TO ADD            
THESE TO THE FORECAST. KEPT THE FLURRIES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN                    
COUNTIES OF THE CWA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS THE SC LAYER BECOMING MORE            
DEVELOPED TO OUR NORTHWEST. UPDATED TEXT FORECAST IS ALREADY ISSUED.            
915 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                       
SHORT TERM...THE REST OF TONIGHT...                                             
AREA OF CI WITH SOME AC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER              
NARROW BAND OF LOWER AC WAS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF AN            
H5 TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 6Z           
AND 10Z OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBS...AN           
AREA OF SC WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA. THERE WERE EVEN A              
FEW FLURRIES REPORTED IN THE SURFACE OB...AND DEPICTED ON WEATHER               
SERVICE RADAR...NEAR IND. THE GFS IS SHOWING LOWER RH IN THE LOWER              
LEVELS AS COMPARED TO THE RUC AND THE WRF. ATTM...I BELIEVE THE                 
HIGHER LOWER LEVEL RH/S SHOWN IN THE RUC AND WRF ARE MORE REASONABLE.           
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR            
EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE SC OVER INDIANA SHOULD WORK ITS WAY               
INTO OUR CWA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE MOST            
OF THE NIGHT. ALSO OPENED UP A TEMPERATURE RANGE IN SOME AREAS                  
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 TO 20 WITH GOOD CAA AT           
850 MB. 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD BE DROPPING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF AROUND           
-3 DEG C...TO AROUND -12 DEG C BY 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. UPDATED                  
FORECAST PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SOON.                                             
632 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                       
AVIATION...8PM TONIGHT-8PM MONDAY EVENING...                                    
H5 TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. PLENTY OF CI             
SHOWN ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF AC             
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. WE SHOULD BE ON            
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AC. WENT WITH SCT100 BKN230 IN THE TAFS TO           
COVER THE ABOVE CONDITIONS. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE WRF AND THE                 
RUC...ARE HINTING AT SOME SC MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. LATEST                
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS DO SHOW SOME SC FORMING OVER INDIANA. PUT             
SCT028 IN ALL THE TAF SITES FOR THIS FEATURE. THE SC SHOULD HANG ON             
LONGEST AT JKL...BUT ATTM COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE SCT. MORE SCT CI              
SHOULD MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.                                     
213 PM EST SUN DEC 3 2006                                                       
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL...THIS FCST IS MAINLY FOR TEMPS.            
TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK AND WITH CONTINUED                    
ADVECTION OF SINGLE DIGIT DWPTS...THIN CI...AND LIGHT WINDS...SEE NO            
REASON WHY MIN TEMPS SHOULD NOT GO A TAD LOWER THAN THE UPPER TEENS             
WE SAW LAST NIGHT. NORTH WINDS ON MON SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN BUT                
STILL THINK WE WILL BREAK THE FREEZING MARK AND MAY EVEN SEE A COUPLE           
OF SITES NEAR 40. A TAD MORE CLOUD COVER MON NIGHT WILL HELP KEEP               
MINS TO ONLY THE LOWER 20S AND THEN A RETURN TO A MORE SWRLY FLOW               
WILL HELP TUE WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.                                   
WEAK S/WV TO TRANSGRESS THE GT LKS WED NITE INTO THU BUT WITH SO                
LITTLE MOISTURE AND S/WV ENERGY WILL ONLY FCST LOW SLGHT CHC POP. QPF           
SHOULD BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT...WITH BEST CHC IN THE SERN MTNS WITH             
UPSLOPE AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. COULD EVEN BE A FLURRY OR TWO FROM               
THIS SYSTEM BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ENUF TO MEASURE OTHER THAN THE TOPS            
OF PINE AND BLACK MTNS. WITH THE DEPARTING S/WV AND CAA THU NITE...AM           
EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AND WILL FCST BELOW MOS. OTHERWISE...              
NEXT 7 DAYS SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL                    
AVERAGES.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DUSTY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
1027 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
SNOW IS DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING. RADAR IS                 
CURRENTLY DETECTING LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FORMING WITH              
LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. SKIES              
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION            
EASES EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKS.                  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TARGET.                                           
CLEANED UP WORDING ON THE LATEST ZFP TO INCORPORATE TRENDS.                     
MARINE: GALES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS               
CAPE COD BAY AND NANTUCKET SOUND...WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.       
AVIATION: IFR CEILINGS WILL INCREASE TO VFR BY 16Z.                             
A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE SENT SHORTLY WITH LATEST                 
SNOWFALL TOTALS...WITH THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON AT               
MANY LOCATIONS.                                                                 
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/ISSUED 615 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006/                                              
..RAIN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND             
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING MAY LEAVE A SMALL SLUSHY                        
ACCUMULATION BUT ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN WET...                                    
MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                             
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED.  RAIN             
IS QUICKLY CHANGING TO WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.             
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS              
THE REGION.  THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO             
NEAR 30 TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  THIS IS RESULTING IN                        
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WET BULB ALLOWING RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE              
TO WET SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                        
THE MAIN THING IS THAT THIS SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT              
ON THE MAIN ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING.  A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON CAR TOPS AND              
AND GRASSY SURFACES...PARTICULARLY IN THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST RHODE              
ISLAND AS WELL AS WESTERN NORFOLK AND WESTERN NORFOLK COUNTY.                   
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE ALL            
THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  WILL              
GO AHEAD AND REFRESH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  ALL IN ALL...A             
TASTE OF WINTER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS                    
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN ROADWAYS.                                                  
FRANK                                                                           
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 354 AM...                                              
SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                   
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW...                  
FORECAST REMAINS VALID.                                                         
COASTAL FRONT HAS SET UP ALONG S COAST AND STEADIEST RAINS ARE                  
FALLING IN MILDER AIR OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...BUT HAS EDGED ONTO            
MUCH OF S COAST AND WAS AS FAR INLAND AS KPYM. THIS IS A WELL                   
DEFINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS ALL WAY BACK TO MID                  
ATLANTIC COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A PIVOT BACK TO I-95 /PVD             
TO BOS/ IN NEXT 3 HOURS AS SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM OFF NC COAST.               
06Z NAM SUGGESTS 12Z-15Z AS TO MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR THIS EVENT IN                 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.                                                           
AT SAME TIME...YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER AREA OF RETURNS COMING UP FROM               
NYC INTO CT...ALL OF WHICH IS BASED AT MID LEVELS AND NOT REACHING              
GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL                  
PACKET OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WAS FORECAST BY PAST SEVERAL            
RUNS OF NAM/GFS...BUT PROBLEM IS WE HAVE A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER                 
BETWEEN 950 AND 750 MB WHICH IS PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING               
GROUND. SO UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER IN NEXT 3              
HOURS...WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION NW OF I-95 THIS MORNING.               
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
/ISSUED 322 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006/                                              
.STILL LOOKING AT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO THIS                    
MORNING IN RI AND INTERIOR E MA...                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TRACK OF               
SURFACE LOW OUTSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES                
WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL GET THIS MORNING.             
00Z NAM IS MUCH DRIER THAN 00Z GFS...CANADIAN AND RUC. BASED UPON               
RADAR TRENDS WE ARE MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW GFS CAMP WHICH BRINGS               
AROUND 0.10 INCH INTO KSFZ-KBOS...0.25 INCH KPVD-KTAN AND 0.50-0.75             
INCH ONTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.                                                 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BLOSSOMING ONTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AT THIS            
TIME AND WE EXPECT IT TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT AS WE HEAD              
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CROSS SECTIONS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW ALL               
RAIN FROM ISLANDS ONTO S COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL              
INTO 40S...BUT IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN RI AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR            
SE MA WHERE READINGS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS             
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE                 
WHICH HAS ALLOWED COLDER AIR TO REMAIN LOCKED IN.                               
MAIN QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IN NEXT FEW HOURS IS...DOES THIS COLDER            
AIR GET SCOURED OUT? WE THINK IT WILL SINCE COLD LAYER IS FAIRLY                
SHALLOW...AND ONCE GRADIENT FORCES SW WINDS TO PICK UP...MILDER AIR             
SHOULD WIN OUT. THAT SAID...WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG           
KPVD/KBOS CORRIDOR BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PLACES WILL SEE ALL SNOW             
AT START.                                                                       
FOLLOWING 00Z GFS WE THINK PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR INLAND AS              
NE CT... NW RI AND EASTERN MA...ROUGHLY FROM KIJD-KBED-KLWM. THAT               
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE TREND SETTING UP ON RADAR AS WELL...IF ANYTHING           
WE ARE BEING A BIT GENEROUS!                                                    
HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 7 AM...WHEN MODELS SHOW            
BEST UPWARD MOTION MOVING OVER SE NEW ENGLAND FROM MID LEVEL                    
DEFORMATION ZONE COUPLED WITH BAND OF STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS. 03Z RUC DEPICTS THIS NICELY AS WELL. AT SAME TIME                
LOWER LEVELS WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO N...IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM          
PASSING SE OF REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SNOW AS            
FAR SE AS KPVD-KTAN-KPYM...AND THAT IS CORRIDOR WHERE BURST OF SNOW             
IS FAVORED.                                                                     
THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO            
STILL SEEM MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...WITH              
ABOUT AN INCH KIJD-KLWM...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION ALONG BOTH E MA COAST         
AND S COAST. THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADVISORIES DESPITE BEING FIRST               
EXPECTED SNOWFALL OF SEASON...BUT SINCE IT WILL COINCIDE WITH MORNING           
COMMUTE WE WILL UPDATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WE THINK MOST OF              
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON GRASS WITH HIGHWAYS AND MAIN ROADS STAYING           
WET...THOUGH CERTAINLY IF IT COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME            
WE COULD HAVE A LAYER OF SLUSH FORM.                                            
ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS MID TO LATE MORNING...RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE              
PLACE FROM W TO E AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.                               
NOT MUCH EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS. MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH REGION TUE BUT MOISTURE               
APPEARS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.                                      
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD            
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION.  LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE              
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 20S                   
EXPECTED IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON.                                    
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WILL                  
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS SHOULD                 
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND IT SHOULD BE COME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 35              
MPH EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.  THE NAM BUFKIT IS A               
BIT STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD BE                
DEALING WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME LOCATIONS.                 
ALTHOUGH THINGS COULD CHANGE...RIGHT NOW THIS IS JUST A LOW                     
PROBABILITY AS WE FEEL THE NAM IS A BIT OVERDONE.  HOWEVER...FEEL WE            
STILL MAY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN THE BLUE HILLS BECAUSE OF             
ITS ADDED ELEVATION.                                                            
WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM              
DECOUPLING.  NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE             
COLD FRONT...SO WILL JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  WARM AIR                
ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO POP UP               
BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE              
FREEZING ALONG THE COAST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.               
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  NAM SEEMS             
WAY TO FAST WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.                           
THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S.             
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WILL              
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.                
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  LOWS             
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 20S ALONG THE             
COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST IN THE 30S AND                   
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S.             
MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SECONDARY STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE              
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...THE                  
CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS OCCURRING WELL               
EAST OF OUR REGION.  THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING FRIDAY AND                    
SATURDAY TO BE DRY.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS A BIT CLOSER AND                    
INDICATES WE MIGHT BE BRUSHED BY THE STORM.  THE UKMET HAS SHOWN                
THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW...BUT THIS LATEST 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED            
FURTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.  THINGS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR                  
OUT...BUT THE MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT WE WILL BE DRY AND NOT             
IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL STORM LATE IN THE WEEK.                                 
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY                
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW.  HIGH              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS FAR INLAND AS KPVD AND KBOS                    
TERMINAL AREAS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE NEAR S                
COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN FROM ISLANDS            
ONTO S COAST...AND INITIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR KBOS/KPVD WHICH                
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AROUND 12Z. HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE IN             
11Z- 15Z TIMEFRAME FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.                                       
IT WILL REMAIN VFR FARTHER INLAND WHERE CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY LOWER              
TO 4KFT THIS MORNING.                                                           
RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND SYSTEM STARTING IN CT VALLEY              
14-15Z AND ON COASTAL PLAIN 16-17Z. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30KT               
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS                  
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AND FOR OUTER                   
WATERS... WHERE NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING AS            
LOW PASSES E OF NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPENS. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR 25 TO 30KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO            
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATE            
TONIGHT NEAR COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE.                           
LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING.  EVEN THOUGH ITS WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...THE               
AIR WILL BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES.                   
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  STRONG SCA WILL ALSO PROBABLY NEEDED            
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY.             
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-233>237 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS/KAB                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA                                             
615 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
...RAIN CHANGING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND            
RHODE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING MAY LEAVE A SMALL SLUSHY                        
ACCUMULATION BUT ROADWAYS WILL REMAIN WET...                                    
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...                                                            
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED.  RAIN             
IS QUICKLY CHANGING TO WET SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RHODE ISLAND.             
SURFACE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS              
THE REGION.  THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S TO             
NEAR 30 TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.  THIS IS RESULTING IN                        
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WET BULB ALLOWING RAIN TO QUICKLY CHANGE              
TO WET SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.                                        
THE MAIN THING IS THAT THIS SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN IMPACT              
ON THE MAIN ROADWAYS SINCE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE                
FREEZING.  A SMALL SLUSHY ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON CAR TOPS AND              
AND GRASSY SURFACES...PARTICULARLY IN THE HILLS OF NORTHWEST RHODE              
ISLAND AS WELL AS WESTERN NORFOLK AND WESTERN NORFOLK COUNTY.                   
OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR RAPIDLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE ALL            
THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  WILL              
GO AHEAD AND REFRESH THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.  ALL IN ALL...A             
TASTE OF WINTER EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS                    
EXPECTED ON THE MAIN ROADWAYS.                                                  
FRANK                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 354 AM...                                             
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...                                                  
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO DESCRIBE WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW...                  
FORECAST REMAINS VALID.                                                         
COASTAL FRONT HAS SET UP ALONG S COAST AND STEADIEST RAINS ARE                  
FALLING IN MILDER AIR OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...BUT HAS EDGED ONTO            
MUCH OF S COAST AND WAS AS FAR INLAND AS KPYM. THIS IS A WELL                   
DEFINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT EXTENDS ALL WAY BACK TO MID                  
ATLANTIC COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A PIVOT BACK TO I-95 /PVD             
TO BOS/ IN NEXT 3 HOURS AS SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM OFF NC COAST.               
06Z NAM SUGGESTS 12Z-15Z AS TO MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR THIS EVENT IN                 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.                                                           
AT SAME TIME...YOU CAN SEE ANOTHER AREA OF RETURNS COMING UP FROM               
NYC INTO CT...ALL OF WHICH IS BASED AT MID LEVELS AND NOT REACHING              
GROUND PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL                  
PACKET OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH WAS FORECAST BY PAST SEVERAL            
RUNS OF NAM/GFS...BUT PROBLEM IS WE HAVE A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER                 
BETWEEN 950 AND 750 MB WHICH IS PREVENTING ANYTHING FROM REACHING               
GROUND. SO UNLESS WE ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS DRY LAYER IN NEXT 3              
HOURS...WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION NW OF I-95 THIS MORNING.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
/ISSUED 322 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006/                                              
..STILL LOOKING AT MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO THIS                   
MORNING IN RI AND INTERIOR E MA...                                              
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                           
EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO TRACK OF               
SURFACE LOW OUTSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES                
WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL GET THIS MORNING.             
00Z NAM IS MUCH DRIER THAN 00Z GFS...CANADIAN AND RUC. BASED UPON               
RADAR TRENDS WE ARE MORE INCLINED TO FOLLOW GFS CAMP WHICH BRINGS               
AROUND 0.10 INCH INTO KSFZ-KBOS...0.25 INCH KPVD-KTAN AND 0.50-0.75             
INCH ONTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.                                                 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS BLOSSOMING ONTO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS AT THIS            
TIME AND WE EXPECT IT TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WESTWARD SHIFT AS WE HEAD              
TOWARD DAYBREAK. CROSS SECTIONS AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW ALL               
RAIN FROM ISLANDS ONTO S COAST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL              
INTO 40S...BUT IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN RI AND ESPECIALLY INTERIOR            
SE MA WHERE READINGS HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM LAST NIGHTS             
RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE                 
WHICH HAS ALLOWED COLDER AIR TO REMAIN LOCKED IN.                               
MAIN QUESTION TO BE ANSWERED IN NEXT FEW HOURS IS...DOES THIS COLDER            
AIR GET SCOURED OUT? WE THINK IT WILL SINCE COLD LAYER IS FAIRLY                
SHALLOW...AND ONCE GRADIENT FORCES SW WINDS TO PICK UP...MILDER AIR             
SHOULD WIN OUT. THAT SAID...WE DO EXPECT TO SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG           
KPVD/KBOS CORRIDOR BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME PLACES WILL SEE ALL SNOW             
AT START.                                                                       
FOLLOWING 00Z GFS WE THINK PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR INLAND AS              
NE CT... NW RI AND EASTERN MA...ROUGHLY FROM KIJD-KBED-KLWM. THAT               
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE TREND SETTING UP ON RADAR AS WELL...IF ANYTHING           
WE ARE BEING A BIT GENEROUS!                                                    
HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR RIGHT AROUND 7 AM...WHEN MODELS SHOW            
BEST UPWARD MOTION MOVING OVER SE NEW ENGLAND FROM MID LEVEL                    
DEFORMATION ZONE COUPLED WITH BAND OF STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL                  
FRONTOGENESIS. 03Z RUC DEPICTS THIS NICELY AS WELL. AT SAME TIME                
LOWER LEVELS WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS SHIFT TO N...IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM          
PASSING SE OF REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A CHANGE TO SNOW AS            
FAR SE AS KPVD-KTAN-KPYM...AND THAT IS CORRIDOR WHERE BURST OF SNOW             
IS FAVORED.                                                                     
THIS WILL BE A SHORT LIVED EVENT AND ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO            
STILL SEEM MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN RI INTO INTERIOR SE MA...WITH              
ABOUT AN INCH KIJD-KLWM...AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION ALONG BOTH E MA COAST         
AND S COAST. THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADVISORIES DESPITE BEING FIRST               
EXPECTED SNOWFALL OF SEASON...BUT SINCE IT WILL COINCIDE WITH MORNING           
COMMUTE WE WILL UPDATE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WE THINK MOST OF              
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON GRASS WITH HIGHWAYS AND MAIN ROADS STAYING           
WET...THOUGH CERTAINLY IF IT COMES DOWN HARD ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME            
WE COULD HAVE A LAYER OF SLUSH FORM.                                            
ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS MID TO LATE MORNING...RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE              
PLACE FROM W TO E AND NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.                               
NOT MUCH EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUE OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS. MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH REGION TUE BUT MOISTURE               
APPEARS LIMITED SO NO MENTION OF FLURRIES.                                      
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...                                     
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A GOOD            
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION.  LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE              
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 20S                   
EXPECTED IN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON.                                    
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WILL                  
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.  HIGHS SHOULD                 
MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AND IT SHOULD BE COME BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 35              
MPH EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.  THE NAM BUFKIT IS A               
BIT STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD BE                
DEALING WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME LOCATIONS.                 
ALTHOUGH THINGS COULD CHANGE...RIGHT NOW THIS IS JUST A LOW                     
PROBABILITY AS WE FEEL THE NAM IS A BIT OVERDONE.  HOWEVER...FEEL WE            
STILL MAY HIT WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IN THE BLUE HILLS BECAUSE OF             
ITS ADDED ELEVATION.                                                            
WARM AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM              
DECOUPLING.  NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE             
COLD FRONT...SO WILL JUST GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.  WARM AIR                
ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO POP UP               
BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT.  LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE              
FREEZING ALONG THE COAST WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.               
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.  NAM SEEMS             
WAY TO FAST WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF.                           
THEREFORE...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S.             
NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  WILL              
GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.                
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.  LOWS             
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH 20S ALONG THE             
COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE JUST IN THE 30S AND                   
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SEE HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S.             
MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SECONDARY STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THE              
DEPARTING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...THE                  
CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS OCCURRING WELL               
EAST OF OUR REGION.  THEREFORE...WE ARE EXPECTING FRIDAY AND                    
SATURDAY TO BE DRY.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS A BIT CLOSER AND                    
INDICATES WE MIGHT BE BRUSHED BY THE STORM.  THE UKMET HAS SHOWN                
THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS IN A ROW...BUT THIS LATEST 00Z RUN HAS TRENDED            
FURTHER EAST AND MORE PROGRESSIVE.  THINGS CAN CHANGE THIS FAR                  
OUT...BUT THE MOSTLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT WE WILL BE DRY AND NOT             
IMPACTED BY THE COASTAL STORM LATE IN THE WEEK.                                 
OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY                
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHEAST TROUGH IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW.  HIGH              
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER WELL INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY.                        
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS FAR INLAND AS KPVD AND KBOS                    
TERMINAL AREAS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE NEAR S                
COAST THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN FROM ISLANDS            
ONTO S COAST...AND INITIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR KBOS/KPVD WHICH                
WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AROUND 12Z. HEIGHT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE IN             
11Z- 15Z TIMEFRAME FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.                                       
IT WILL REMAIN VFR FARTHER INLAND WHERE CEILINGS SHOULD ONLY LOWER              
TO 4KFT THIS MORNING.                                                           
RAPID CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND SYSTEM STARTING IN CT VALLEY              
14-15Z AND ON COASTAL PLAIN 16-17Z. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30KT               
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW DEEPENS                  
OFFSHORE.                                                                       
MARINE...                                                                       
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR NANTUCKET SOUND AND FOR OUTER                   
WATERS... WHERE NW WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING AS            
LOW PASSES E OF NEW ENGLAND AND DEEPENS. ELSEWHERE WE HAVE SMALL                
CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR 25 TO 30KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO            
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY WILL SUBSIDE LATE            
TONIGHT NEAR COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE.                           
LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND            
EVENING.  EVEN THOUGH ITS WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS...THE               
AIR WILL BE COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES.                   
THEREFORE...WE EXPECT STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS              
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  STRONG SCA WILL ALSO PROBABLY NEEDED            
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.                
&&                                                                              
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NH...NONE.                                                                      
RI...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ231-232-250-254-255 FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7          
     PM MONDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230-233>237 FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6             
     AM TUESDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MESOSCALE UPDATE...FRANK                                                        
SHORT TERM...JWD                                                                
LONG TERM...FRANK                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ma                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1104 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HEAVY LES IS THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST AND NORTH            
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.                                                         
NUMEROUS MESOLOWS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS NOTED ON IR                
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE KMQT RADAR HAVE MOVED ONSHORE INTO                    
ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON AND ALGER COUNTIES. SPOTTER REPORTS OF 5" OR               
MORE FROM PAINESDALE TO TWIN LAKES AND FROM GREENLAND TO ONTONAGON              
HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A LES ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AS                  
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE LES BANDS COULD LINGER OVER THESE LOCATION            
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.                                                 
ANOTHER MESOLOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO ALGER COUNTY SHOULD ADD A FEW               
MORE INCHES TO EVENING SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE AND RESULT IN ADVISORY             
CRITERIA SNOWS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. THEREFORE...HOISTED AN LES ADVISORY            
THERE AS WELL. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR MQT COUNTY BUT             
AFTER CALLING AROUND THE AREA...MOST LOCATIONS HAD PICKED UP NO MORE            
THAN AN INCH OR TWO. IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN TOO              
OVER MQT COUNTY AS ONSHORE NRLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER ERN LAKE                
SUPERIOR. THIS WILL ELIMINATE ENVIRONMENT FOR MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE              
BANDS/MESOLOWS AND EXPECT JUST GENERAL LES BANDS OVERNIGHT WITH NAM             
BUFR SNDGS INDICATING INVERSION HGTS LOWERING TO AROUND 4KFT.                   
MENTIONED LOCAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES OVER ERN MQT                 
COUNTY.                                                                         
ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING FCST.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...MAIN FCST ISSUE IS LES OFF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
LES TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF CONVERGENCE                        
ZONES/MESOLOWS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN CONVERGENCE               
ZONE RUNS FROM JUST NORTH OF DEVILS ISLAND TO NEAR THE TIP OF THE               
KEWEENAW THEN ALMOST DUE E ACROSS THE LAKE. IT IS CLEARLY MARKED BY             
LES ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE S. SMALL            
KINKS/POSSIBLE MESOLOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE BAND. LES HAS RECENTLY              
REACHED COPPER HARBOR...AND WEB CAM SHOWS HVY SNOW FALLING THERE. TO            
THE SE...BROADER LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING OVER SE LAKE             
SUPERIOR PER GENERAL CYCLONIC ROTATION OF ECHOES ON 0.5 DEGREE                  
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KMQT RADAR.                                           
ONCE AGAIN...THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST               
HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN. 18Z RUC13               
SUPPORTS ITS SOLUTION...BUT WHAT EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRES OVER SE LAKE             
SUPERIOR WILL BE A PROBLEM. 18Z RUC13 INDICATES MESOLOW BECOMING                
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF PICTURED ROCKS BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO               
THE N LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW BULK OF OTHER GUIDANCE                
WHICH SHOWS CONVERGENCE ZONE SWEEPING S TO THE SHORELINE. GENERAL               
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SHIFTING WINDS WHICH WILL               
KEEP LES BANDS ON THE MOVE SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING A                     
WIDESPREAD ADVY TYPE EVENT. NONETHELESS...BRIEF HVY SNOW WILL OCCUR             
AS FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ZONES PASS. LES INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED BY               
HIGH INVERSIONS AROUND 7KFT...AND ZONE OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW              
GROWTH TEMPS COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL UPWARD MOTION MAX. AREAS FROM            
NEAR KIWD THRU THE KEWEENAW...AND ALGER/PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY WILL            
SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL 2-4 INCH                       
ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. IF A MESOLOW DOES MEANDER NEAR THE                
ALGER COUNTY SHORELINE...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS FOCUSED                    
CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD PERSISTENT MDT/HVY SNOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO               
WATCH THE AREA AROUND HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ONTONAGON COUNTY FOR                  
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY BECOME FOCUSED LATER TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES              
STRENGTHEN. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SUFFICIENT              
NRLY PUSH TO BRING MAIN BAND OF SNOW COMPLETELY INTO MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. AREAS FROM BIG BAY TO MARQUETTE AND E TOWARD SHOT POINT                 
SHOULD GET GRAZED THOUGH AND WILL INCLUDE LOCAL 1-2 INCH                        
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.                                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS.                                                                       
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WILL            
MOVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND             
THE LOW...AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE UP TO 800MB...GOING WITH                
DEFINITE POPS ALONG THE LAKE EFFECT FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER             
THE KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN ALGER COUNTY.                                         
TUE-THU...                                                                      
WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK WEST BY 12Z TUE AND SW BY 18Z...CUTTING OFF              
THE BEST CHANCE OF LES IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AND TAPERING OFF THE             
LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY IN THE MORNING. KEEPING LIKELY POPS OVER            
LAKE SUPERIOR FOR LINGERING LES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS                
OVER LAKE MI MAY BRING LES TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT CO...SO             
UPPED SNOW AMT TO AROUND 3 INCHES TO BLEND WITH APX. IF THE WINDS               
BECOME TOO WESTERLY...WILL NEED TO DECREASE THIS EXPECTED SNOW AMT              
FOR OUR CWA.                                                                    
MEANWHILE AROUND 18Z...280-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR OVER               
THE WESTERN U.P. AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW PRES                
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.              
WITH THIS ASCENT...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND EAT             
AWAY AT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND                      
FRONTOGENESIS FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT...PUT LIKELY POPS OVER                  
WESTERN 1/4 CWA BY 18Z TUE AND PROGRESSED THE LIKELY AREA EASTWARD              
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.                                                              
HPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MANY OF THE OTHER               
MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z              
UKMET. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT SPED UP A LITTLE WITH THE 12Z             
RUN. TRENDED THE LIKELY POPS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY IN                 
GRIDS...BUT MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE TOO SLOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN               
EYE ON THE PROJECTED SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.                                      
WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTING LIKELY SNOW              
ALONG THE WESTERN CWA LAKESHORE AND UPPER MI EAST OF MQT. 850MB                 
TEMPS AROUND -18C OR LESS BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 18Z THU. LOOKING FOR              
LES CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH THU AND TAPER OFF BY THU NIGHT.                
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRI-MON)...                                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS DAYS 4-7. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL            
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES               
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF              
PCPN TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW...KEEPING             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LAND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING HPC             
AND THE GFS. BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE INTO              
WESTERN CWA AND KEWEENAW COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS                  
THROUGH THE CWA MON 00Z-06Z ACCORDING TO THE GFS. EXTREME ARCTIC                
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT DO NOT LOOK PROMISING ATTM.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR                
MIZ002-003-006 UNTIL 10Z TUE.                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS (UPDATE)                                                                   
ROLFSON (SHORT TERM)                                                            
MRC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
950 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SLIDING            
THROUGH THE STATE TO THE SOUTH WHILE MAIN SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE             
PUSHING OFF ACROSS LAKE HURON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SLIDING              
ACROSS THE NRN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING AS OF 02Z. SHARP LOW LEVEL               
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING MESOSCALE              
CIRCULATIONS ON LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR DURING THE EVENING ALONG            
WITH INTENSE POCKETS OF SNOW. MOST NOTABLE CIRCULATION DEVELOPED                
SOUTH OF BEAVER ISLAND AND PUSHED ONSHORE NEAR PETOSKEY. VERY HEAVY             
BANDING OF SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE SET UP ACROSS LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY             
INTO PETOSKEY AND BAY VIEW AREA AND PRODUCED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS               
FOR A TIME (PER LOCAL WEBCAMS). NOW TRACKING THIS MESOSCALE                     
CIRCULATION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN PUSHED ALONG BY LOW            
LEVEL WINDS VEERING INTO THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.                       
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...MESOSCALE CIRCULATION OVER NW LOWER                   
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE DOWN THROUGH GRAYLING AND MIO AREAS...BUT                
SHOULD WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY HAVING MOVED WELL AWAY FROM LAKE                    
MICHIGAN. THEN...NAM/RUC BOTH FORECAST PRIMARILY NW FLOW FOR A GOOD             
PORTION OF THE NIGHT BEFORE BACKING WEST TOWARD MORNING. HOWEVER                
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT MQT RADAR...A COUPLE MORE MESO CIRCULATIONS                 
DROPPING SOUTH OFF SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND NOT ENTIRELY SURE JUST            
WHERE THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL END UP. IF THESE FEATURES EVENTUALLY              
SWING DOWN INTO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN THEY WOULD CERTAINLY DISRUPT THE              
FORECAST FLOW REGIME AS WELL AS PRODUCE ADDITIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY             
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES. THESE                  
CIRCULATIONS MAY SIMPLY WEAKEN HAVING MOVED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND               
AWAY FROM THE SHARP TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR              
THIS EVENING. TIME WILL TELL.                                                   
AT ANY RATE...FROM A LAKE EFFECT STANDPOINT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS                
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NOT TOO SHABBY AS LAKE-850 MB DELTA T/S HOLD                 
AROUND 20C THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INVERSIONS 5K FEET MSL OR GREATER.            
BUT MEANWHILE UNDER INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...INVERSION HEIGHTS                   
STRENGTHEN AND LOWER LATER ON TONIGHT WHILE LOW-MID LEVELS ABOVE THE            
INVERSION DRY OUT (MEAN 850-700 MB RH DECREASING TO 50 PERCENT OR               
LESS). COMBINED WITH EVENTUAL BACKING FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWN              
TICK IN OVERALL SNOW SHOWER INTENSITY ESPECIALLY AFTER 4 AM OR SO.              
ASSUMING FLOW REGIME REMAINS MORE OR LESS NW...WILL LIKELY TRIM OUT             
HEADLINES FROM TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES (EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN) AS                
WELL AS MACKINAC COUNTY WITH THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE. FOR                   
EVERYONE ELSE...GIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALREADY REPORTED TODAY AND             
WITH ANOTHER 6 HOURS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS                          
ANTICIPATED...WILL KEEP WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING FOR NOW.                  
CONSIDERED ADDING KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES INTO THE ADVISORY              
MIX GIVEN HEAVIER SNOWFALL THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE MESOSCALE            
CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PLUS SOME ADDITIONAL NW FLOW                
LAKE EFFECT. BUT THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN            
SUB ADVISORY.                                                                   
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 04 2006                         
DISCUSSION...ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1015 MB LOW                   
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH 1028 MB HIGH                
PRESSURE RIDGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS REGION.                  
CURRENT APX RADAR SHOWED INTENSE SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BAND HAD            
MOVED INLAND INTO NORTHWEST LOWER WHILE ADDITIONAL WESTERLY FLOW                
BANDS WERE FORMING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST             
CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING HEADLINES AND                  
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.                                              
TONIGHT...SYNOPTIC LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION                
EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE PURE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS. WINDS               
CONTINUE TO VEER FROM THE WEST TO THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO            
NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE BACKING BACK INTO THE WEST NORTHWEST               
TOWARD MORNING. DELTA TS REMAIN IN THE VERY FAVORABLE RANGE (ABOUT              
20) AND 900-700 MB RH (MOISTURE) STARTS OFF BETWEEN 90 AND 95                   
PERCENT THIS EVENING BEFORE DROPPING DOWN TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65                  
PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE DECENT AT BETWEEN 4000            
AND 5000 FEET. THE ONE NEGATIVE IS THAT WINDS ARE SHIFTING AROUND               
TONIGHT WHICH MAY LIMIT BANDS FROM FOCUSING IN ON ONE AREA FOR TO               
LONG (UNLIKE TODAY). OVERALL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS                
EXPECTED IN WNW AND NW FLOW FAVORED LOCALS AND LESS THAN AN INCH                
ELSEWHERE. CURRENT HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL ADD               
OTSEGO COUNTY INTO THE ADVISORY. MACKINAC COUNTY MAY BE ABLE TO BE              
CANCELLED EARLY (OVER A FOOT OF SNOW FELL DURING A FEW HOUR PERIOD              
FROM ST. IGNACE TO MORAN EARLIER TODAY). LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY            
IN THE TEENS.                                                                   
SULLIVAN                                                                        
LONGER TERM ISSUES (TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD PATTERN TO REMAIN            
IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGHING              
ANCHORED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THIS QUICK TRANSITION TOWARD A            
+PNA PATTERN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS WESTERN RIDGE               
FLATTENS OUT AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  A COUPLE OF              
CLIPPER SYSTEMS REINFORCING THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH WILL PROVIDE THE            
PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR A BUSY MIDWEEK PERIOD...AS THEY USHER             
IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH ASSOCIATED LAKE                  
EFFECT/ LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL POTENTIAL.                                       
TUESDAY...AT THE ONSET TUESDAY WILL BE ONGOING LES IN THE WAKE OF               
TODAY'S CLIPPER...WHILE WAITING FOR THE NEXT ONE IN THE SERIES WHICH            
WILL BE SPREADING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY.             
THE MAIN BRUNT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA              
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE MAIN SHOW OCCURRING              
TUESDAY NIGHT.  LOW LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BACK SHARPLY SOUTHWEST              
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  SO            
LINGERING WEST-NORTHWEST ORIENTED SNOWBANDS SHOULD ROTATE SOUTHWEST             
AND IMPACT PRIMARILY FAR NORTHWEST LOWER AND THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF              
THE UPPER PENINSULA BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  WARMING 850MB               
TEMPERATURES (ABOVE -8C BY AFTERNOON)/LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS                
(BELOW 850MB) AND DRYING ABOVE THE INVERSION EXPECTED TO LIMIT                  
INTENSITY OF LES...HARD TO SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO IN FAVORED              
SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS.  SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION THEN ARRIVES LATE IN               
THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE            
GUIDANCE REGARDING ENDING TIME OF BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WILL LEAN             
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE QUICKER NAM AS THE GFS IS TRENDING IN THAT                  
DIRECTION...BUT WON'T ADD TIMING SPECIFICS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS              
POINT (MORE OF A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH).  NICE SHOT OF DEEP               
LAYER QG FORCING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST               
AREA...LOOKS LIKE ALL AREAS WILL GET IN ON SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL             
AND CAN ENVISION A SWATH OF 2-4 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST OF                    
NORTHERN MI.  BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL AGAIN BE A               
PLAYER ADJACENT TO LAKE MICHIGAN/FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON.  NOT                  
EXPECTED TO SEE INSTABILITY TO THE EXTENT SEEN THIS AFTERNOON                   
(INVERSION HEIGHTS ABOUT 100MB LOWER OR SO)...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH              
TO PUSH ACCUMULATIONS INTO WARNING CRITERIA (6-8 INCHES) WEST OF                
US-131 OVER NORTHWEST LOWER AS WELL AS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST UPPER               
MI.  BRISK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS LIKELY GUSTING IN THE 20-30 MPH                
RANGE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE REGARDING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.  GIVEN             
THE PLETHORA OF HEADLINES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THESE SAME AREAS...             
WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT TO                 
MINIMIZE THE CHAOS.  GALE WARNINGS WILL BE HOISTED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN            
NEARSHORE ZONES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.                                              
WEDNESDAY...LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY TO BE A TRANSITION BACK TOWARD                 
NORTHWEST FLOW LES...TIMING OF WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN                
VARIATIONS IN FORECAST TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WOULD EXPECT            
A BAND OF SNOW ALIGNED ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA             
DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS...AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES                
DROPPING BACK BELOW -15C DURING THE DAY EXPECTING MORE PERSISTENT               
NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP BY AFTERNOON.  BEST ACCUMULATIONS DURING               
THE DAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS CHIPPEWA COUNTY WHERE FETCH WILL BE MOST              
PERSISTENT ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY.  INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL             
CONTINUE TO RISE OVERNIGHT AS LAST WAVE IN THE SERIES DROPS IN FROM             
THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE POOL OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPERATURES                
HEADING TOWARD -20C).  SO LOOKING FOR LES TO CONTINUE...WITH BANDS              
VEERING MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  SEVERAL MORE               
INCHES LIKELY IN THIS REGIME.                                                   
EXTENDED PERIODS (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST                  
PERIOD WILL START WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR CROSSING THE                 
WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY...850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -16C WILL ENSURE              
CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY               
NORTHWEST FLOW.  AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN             
EARNEST FRIDAY...MAY BE ENOUGH PACIFIC MOISTURE LEFT OVER TO WRING              
OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP THOUGH LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD BE DRY.               
CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY AND WILL KEEP IT THAT WAY FOR THE TIME                  
BEING.  FOR THE WEEKEND SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST...LOOKS             
LIKE A DRY PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND             
IN TEMPERATURES.  SOME HINTS OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH             
LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR MONDAY THAT COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR              
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THURSDAY STARTS              
OUT COLD WITH HIGHS A SOLID 10+ DEGREES BELOW EARLY DECEMBER                    
NORMALS...A FEW AREAS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS NOT OUT OF             
THE QUESTION.  MODERATING TRENDS SHOULD REALLY KICK IN BY SATURDAY              
AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING...PERHAPS EVEN A 40 DEGREE            
READING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.                                                   
JPB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...                                     
   MIZ019>021-025-031                                                           
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...                                    
   MIZ008-022                                                                   
GALE WARNING...TUESDAY NIGHT...LMZ323-341-342-344-345.                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
911 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ZONE FORECASTS/GRIDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED VERY SLIGHTLY FOR THE                    
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WANE AND IS                   
PRESENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I 69. FOR MOST OF THE                     
REMAINING OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE BOOSTED THE POPS FOR THE                      
COUNTIES NEAR THE OH BORDER...AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO               
CONCENTRATE BEST SNOWFALL/BANDING TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST                  
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I                             
94...GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES 12 HOUR SNOWFALL ENDING              
BY 12Z TUESDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST MI.                       
THEREFORE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND ZONE                   
FORECAST WORDING HAS BEEN REFRESHED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 700 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
A SLOW WANING IN OVERALL RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SEEN EARLY                  
THIS EVENING AS INITIAL VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES OFF TO THE               
EAST. CHALLENGE TONIGHT AGAIN CENTERS ON DEGREE OF LAKE MI EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LOCATION OF BEST BANDING.                
18Z MODEL RUNS AND LATEST RUC SUPPORT MODEST WEST TO EAST WIND                  
CONVERGENCE BAND SETTING UP MAINLY CENTRAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST                
MI BY LATE EVENING THEN SLIGHTLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.                  
BEST 950 MB CONVERGENCE/OMEGA ASCENT CONSENSUS TENDING TO SHOW UP               
CENTERED OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF M 59.                           
TAFS REFLECT FLAKES IN THE AIR AT TAF SITES MOST OF THE TIME                    
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS VERY EARLY                 
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER WIDESPREAD SNOW AND AGAIN MIDNIGHT              
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT BANDING.               
EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FROM SNOW TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA. TAFS REFLECT                 
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING WILL SEE                
PERIODS OF VFR...AS WELL AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 1000/850 MB                  
WINDS TURN TO SOUTHWEST IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. VISIBILITIES                  
OCCASIONALLY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LOCAL IFR.                            
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                
.LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...                   
POTENT UPPER WAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON              
AND PROVIDING THE REGION WITH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL.              
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BACK TO AROUND 1 MILE IN THE HEAVIER                  
SNOWFALL BUT SNOWFLAKE SIZE REMAIN RATHER SMALL AND ACCUMULATIONS               
HAVE REMAINED LIGHT (< 1").  THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THIS                   
EVENING AND WE WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT                   
OVERNIGHT.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM               
SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CLIMBING BETWEEN 725-800MB AND                   
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING.  TRAJECTORIES WILL                 
AVERAGE AROUND 270 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING AND IMPACT              
THE M59-I96 CORRIDOR THEN WINDS VEER TOWARD 290-300 DEGREES                     
OVERNIGHT;  THIS WILL PLACE BAND(S) OF SNOW CLOSER TO I96-I94                   
OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THESE BANDS...WILL PLACE            
THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR LIVINGSTON/WASHTENAW COUNTIES              
WITH A 1-3" AND 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE                     
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE                   
(MAINLY ALONG THE M59 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD ARB-DTW). LATEST 18Z                  
NAM/RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 12Z WRF OUTPUT POINT TOWARD A MORE INTENSE             
BAND BETWEEN 05-09Z AND EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP UPSTREAM LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION                  
OCCURS UPSTREAM AND SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND              
SUNRISE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LAKE BAND INTENSITIES ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST LOWER AND KEEP THE BANDS RIGHT NEAR THE SHORELINE BEFORE              
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THEN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR MOVES                 
ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS              
NEXT CLIPPER IS ON THE WAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CPD/S WILL               
COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRI CITIES MIGHT               
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE                        
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TOWARD                 
THE FREEZING MARK AWAY FROM METRO DTW.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE 12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION ON THE                   
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT               
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS GOOD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS                  
AFTERNOON SHOWING THE WAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST SHEARING               
INLAND ON THE SOUTH END WITH A DISTINCT CIRCULATION NEARLY INTO                 
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD                
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THE                
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT                 
STILL LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE JUDGING FROM MODEL RH FIELDS AND CROSS              
SECTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A DUSTING IN THE TRI                    
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE                   
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN                   
PLACE IN TIME FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DCVA FROM THE               
SHORT BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION              
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.                                                    
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER               
WAVE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN CANADA.                
THIS WAVE, ALONG WITH A SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL             
AMPLIFY THE UPPER FLOW AND LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. TRENDS IN THE 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATE A MORE MERIDIONAL               
UPPER FLOW AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AND            
A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE LAKES. EXPECT THIS             
TO BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE THUMB DURING THURSDAY AND               
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME CLOUD                
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOME OF THE             
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.                                    
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOWARD A                
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE             
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO LOWER               
MICHIGAN AND TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE SW ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN            
MIND, WE WILL SHADE THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GFS/MEX                  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND THEN CATCH UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION AND UPDATE...DWD                                                       
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
700 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A SLOW WANING IN OVERALL RADAR REFLECTIVITY RETURNS SEEN EARLY                  
THIS EVENING AS INITIAL VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES OFF TO THE               
EAST. CHALLENGE TONIGHT AGAIN CENTERS ON DEGREE OF LAKE MI EFFECT               
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LOCATION OF BEST BANDING.                
18Z MODEL RUNS AND LATEST RUC SUPPORT MODEST WEST TO EAST WIND                  
CONVERGENCE BAND SETTING UP MAINLY CENTRAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST                
MI BY LATE EVENING THEN SLIGHTLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.                  
BEST 950 MB CONVERGENCE/OMEGA ASCENT CONSENSUS TENDING TO SHOW UP               
CENTERED OVERNIGHT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF M 59.                           
TAFS REFLECT FLAKES IN THE AIR AT TAF SITES MOST OF THE TIME                    
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS VERY EARLY                 
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR LEFTOVER WIDESPREAD SNOW AND AGAIN MIDNIGHT              
INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH MORE IN WAY OF LAKE EFFECT BANDING.               
EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK FROM SNOW TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE                  
AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA. TAFS REFLECT                 
MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS...THOUGH PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING WILL SEE                
PERIODS OF VFR...AS WELL AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN 1000/850 MB                  
WINDS TURN TO SOUTHWEST IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. VISIBILITIES                  
OCCASIONALLY MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LOCAL IFR.                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                             
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...                  
POTENT UPPER WAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON              
AND PROVIDING THE REGION WITH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL.              
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BACK TO AROUND 1 MILE IN THE HEAVIER                  
SNOWFALL BUT SNOWFLAKE SIZE REMAIN RATHER SMALL AND ACCUMULATIONS               
HAVE REMAINED LIGHT (< 1").  THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THIS                   
EVENING AND WE WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT                   
OVERNIGHT.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM               
SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CLIMBING BETWEEN 725-800MB AND                   
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING.  TRAJECTORIES WILL                 
AVERAGE AROUND 270 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING AND IMPACT              
THE M59-I96 CORRIDOR THEN WINDS VEER TOWARD 290-300 DEGREES                     
OVERNIGHT;  THIS WILL PLACE BAND(S) OF SNOW CLOSER TO I96-I94                   
OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THESE BANDS...WILL PLACE            
THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR LIVINGSTON/WASHTENAW COUNTIES              
WITH A 1-3" AND 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE                     
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE                   
(MAINLY ALONG THE M59 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD ARB-DTW). LATEST 18Z                  
NAM/RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 12Z WRF OUTPUT POINT TOWARD A MORE INTENSE             
BAND BETWEEN 05-09Z AND EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP UPSTREAM LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION                  
OCCURS UPSTREAM AND SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND              
SUNRISE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LAKE BAND INTENSITIES ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST LOWER AND KEEP THE BANDS RIGHT NEAR THE SHORELINE BEFORE              
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THEN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR MOVES                 
ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS              
NEXT CLIPPER IS ON THE WAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CPD/S WILL               
COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRI CITIES MIGHT               
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE                        
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TOWARD                 
THE FREEZING MARK AWAY FROM METRO DTW.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE 12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION ON THE                   
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT               
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS GOOD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS                  
AFTERNOON SHOWING THE WAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST SHEARING               
INLAND ON THE SOUTH END WITH A DISTINCT CIRCULATION NEARLY INTO                 
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD                
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THE                
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT                 
STILL LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE JUDGING FROM MODEL RH FIELDS AND CROSS              
SECTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A DUSTING IN THE TRI                    
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE                   
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN                   
PLACE IN TIME FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DCVA FROM THE               
SHORT BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION              
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.                                                    
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER               
WAVE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN CANADA.                
THIS WAVE, ALONG WITH A SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL             
AMPLIFY THE UPPER FLOW AND LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. TRENDS IN THE 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATE A MORE MERIDIONAL               
UPPER FLOW AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AND            
A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE LAKES. EXPECT THIS             
TO BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE THUMB DURING THURSDAY AND               
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME CLOUD                
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOME OF THE             
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.                                    
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOWARD A                
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE             
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO LOWER               
MICHIGAN AND TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE SW ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN            
MIND, WE WILL SHADE THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GFS/MEX                  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND THEN CATCH UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
457 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
IN THE SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...MAIN FCST ISSUE IS LES OFF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR.                                                                       
LES TONIGHT WILL REVOLVE AROUND EVOLUTION OF CONVERGENCE                        
ZONES/MESOLOWS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAIN CONVERGENCE               
ZONE RUNS FROM JUST NORTH OF DEVILS ISLAND TO NEAR THE TIP OF THE               
KEWEENAW THEN ALMOST DUE E ACROSS THE LAKE. IT IS CLEARLY MARKED BY             
LES ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE S. SMALL            
KINKS/POSSIBLE MESOLOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE BAND. LES HAS RECENTLY              
REACHED COPPER HARBOR...AND WEB CAM SHOWS HVY SNOW FALLING THERE. TO            
THE SE...BROADER LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING OVER SE LAKE             
SUPERIOR PER GENERAL CYCLONIC ROTATION OF ECHOES ON 0.5 DEGREE                  
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KMQT RADAR.                                           
ONCE AGAIN...THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST               
HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN. 18Z RUC13               
SUPPORTS ITS SOLUTION...BUT WHAT EVENTUALLY TRANSPIRES OVER SE LAKE             
SUPERIOR WILL BE A PROBLEM. 18Z RUC13 INDICATES MESOLOW BECOMING                
NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF PICTURED ROCKS BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO               
THE N LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL FOLLOW BULK OF OTHER GUIDANCE                
WHICH SHOWS CONVERGENCE ZONE SWEEPING S TO THE SHORELINE. GENERAL               
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE AND SHIFTING WINDS WHICH WILL               
KEEP LES BANDS ON THE MOVE SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM BECOMING A                     
WIDESPREAD ADVY TYPE EVENT. NONETHELESS...BRIEF HVY SNOW WILL OCCUR             
AS FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ZONES PASS. LES INTENSITY WILL BE AIDED BY               
HIGH INVERSIONS AROUND 7KFT...AND ZONE OF FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW              
GROWTH TEMPS COINCIDENT WITH LOW-LEVEL UPWARD MOTION MAX. AREAS FROM            
NEAR KIWD THRU THE KEWEENAW...AND ALGER/PORTIONS OF LUCE COUNTY WILL            
SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL 2-4 INCH                       
ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. IF A MESOLOW DOES MEANDER NEAR THE                
ALGER COUNTY SHORELINE...HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AS FOCUSED                    
CONVERGENCE WILL YIELD PERSISTENT MDT/HVY SNOW. WILL ALSO NEED TO               
WATCH THE AREA AROUND HOUGHTON COUNTY AND ONTONAGON COUNTY FOR                  
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY BECOME FOCUSED LATER TONIGHT AS LAND BREEZES              
STRENGTHEN. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SUFFICIENT              
NRLY PUSH TO BRING MAIN BAND OF SNOW COMPLETELY INTO MARQUETTE                  
COUNTY. AREAS FROM BIG BAY TO MARQUETTE AND E TOWARD SHOT POINT                 
SHOULD GET GRAZED THOUGH AND WILL INCLUDE LOCAL 1-2 INCH                        
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.                                                            
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE NEXT               
FEW DAYS.                                                                       
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATING OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON WILL            
MOVE EASTWARD OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND             
THE LOW...AND WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE UP TO 800MB...GOING WITH                
DEFINITE POPS ALONG THE LAKE EFFECT FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER             
THE KEWEENAW AND NORTHERN ALGER COUNTY.                                         
TUE-THU...                                                                      
WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK WEST BY 12Z TUE AND SW BY 18Z...CUTTING OFF              
THE BEST CHANCE OF LES IN THE NORTH AND EAST...AND TAPERING OFF THE             
LES OVER THE KEWEENAW EARLY IN THE MORNING. KEEPING LIKELY POPS OVER            
LAKE SUPERIOR FOR LINGERING LES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS                
OVER LAKE MI MAY BRING LES TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT CO...SO             
UPPED SNOW AMT TO AROUND 3 INCHES TO BLEND WITH APX. IF THE WINDS               
BECOME TOO WESTERLY...WILL NEED TO DECREASE THIS EXPECTED SNOW AMT              
FOR OUR CWA.                                                                    
MEANWHILE AROUND 18Z...280-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR OVER               
THE WESTERN U.P. AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW PRES                
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER APPROACHES OUR CWA FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.              
WITH THIS ASCENT...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE CWA AND EAT             
AWAY AT THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND                      
FRONTOGENESIS FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT...PUT LIKELY POPS OVER                  
WESTERN 1/4 CWA BY 18Z TUE AND PROGRESSED THE LIKELY AREA EASTWARD              
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.                                                              
HPC FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AND MANY OF THE OTHER               
MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 00Z              
UKMET. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS                  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT SPED UP A LITTLE WITH THE 12Z             
RUN. TRENDED THE LIKELY POPS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS ORIGINALLY IN                 
GRIDS...BUT MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE TOO SLOW. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN               
EYE ON THE PROJECTED SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.                                      
WITH STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTING LIKELY SNOW              
ALONG THE WESTERN CWA LAKESHORE AND UPPER MI EAST OF MQT. 850MB                 
TEMPS AROUND -18C OR LESS BETWEEN 18Z WED AND 18Z THU. LOOKING FOR              
LES CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH THU AND TAPER OFF BY THU NIGHT.                
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRI-MON)...                                                
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS DAYS 4-7. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL            
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES               
WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING A CHANCE OF              
PCPN TO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER FOR NOW...KEEPING             
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF THE LAND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING HPC             
AND THE GFS. BY SUN AFTERNOON AND MON...BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE INTO              
WESTERN CWA AND KEWEENAW COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER ISENTROPIC                
LIFT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS                  
THROUGH THE CWA MON 00Z-06Z ACCORDING TO THE GFS. EXTREME ARCTIC                
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT DO NOT LOOK PROMISING ATTM.                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (SHORT TERM)                                                            
MRC (LONG TERM)                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
357 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                               
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...                 
POTENT UPPER WAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON              
AND PROVIDING THE REGION WITH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL.              
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BACK TO AROUND 1 MILE IN THE HEAVIER                  
SNOWFALL BUT SNOWFLAKE SIZE REMAIN RATHER SMALL AND ACCUMULATIONS               
HAVE REMAINED LIGHT (< 1").  THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THIS                   
EVENING AND WE WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT                   
OVERNIGHT.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM               
SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CLIMBING BETWEEN 725-800MB AND                   
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING.  TRAJECTORIES WILL                 
AVERAGE AROUND 270 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING AND IMPACT              
THE M59-I96 CORRIDOR THEN WINDS VEER TOWARD 290-300 DEGREES                     
OVERNIGHT;  THIS WILL PLACE BAND(S) OF SNOW CLOSER TO I96-I94                   
OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THESE BANDS...WILL PLACE            
THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR LIVINGSTON/WASHTENAW COUNTIES              
WITH A 1-3" AND 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE                     
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE                   
(MAINLY ALONG THE M59 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD ARB-DTW). LATEST 18Z                  
NAM/RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 12Z WRF OUTPUT POINT TOWARD A MORE INTENSE             
BAND BETWEEN 05-09Z AND EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP UPSTREAM LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION                  
OCCURS UPSTREAM AND SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND              
SUNRISE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LAKE BAND INTENSITIES ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST LOWER AND KEEP THE BANDS RIGHT NEAR THE SHORELINE BEFORE              
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THEN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR MOVES                 
ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS              
NEXT CLIPPER IS ON THE WAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CPD/S WILL               
COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRI CITIES MIGHT               
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE                        
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TOWARD                 
THE FREEZING MARK AWAY FROM METRO DTW.                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THE 12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION ON THE                   
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT               
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS GOOD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS                  
AFTERNOON SHOWING THE WAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST SHEARING               
INLAND ON THE SOUTH END WITH A DISTINCT CIRCULATION NEARLY INTO                 
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD                
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THE                
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT                 
STILL LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE JUDGING FROM MODEL RH FIELDS AND CROSS              
SECTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A DUSTING IN THE TRI                    
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE                   
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN                   
PLACE IN TIME FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DCVA FROM THE               
SHORT BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION              
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.                                                    
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER               
WAVE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN CANADA.                
THIS WAVE, ALONG WITH A SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL             
AMPLIFY THE UPPER FLOW AND LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. TRENDS IN THE 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATE A MORE MERIDIONAL               
UPPER FLOW AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AND            
A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE LAKES. EXPECT THIS             
TO BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE THUMB DURING THURSDAY AND               
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME CLOUD                
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOME OF THE             
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.                                    
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOWARD A                
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE             
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO LOWER               
MICHIGAN AND TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE SW ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN            
MIND, WE WILL SHADE THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GFS/MEX                  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND THEN CATCH UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1237 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                            
AVIATION...                                                                     
ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO SNOW AND ITS                    
ASSOCIATED REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITIES. POTENT UPPER WAVE AND                    
FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET ALONG WITH LAKE MICHIGAN                    
CONTRIBUTION WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH A                
3-5SM AND MVFR CEILINGS. LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS               
WAVE...IMPRESSIVE CLIMBING OF THE INVERSION HEIGHTS AND STEEP                   
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING AN ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PATTERN ACROSS                
THE REGION. 12Z NAM SUGGESTS A BAND OF SNOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS                  
M59-I69 CORRIDORS THIS EVENING THEN MIGRATE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARD              
DTW/DET. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS COULD PROVIDE A                 
BRIEF 1 MILE OR LESS IN SNOW AND DEPOSIT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION                   
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT WILL BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TOWARD 1-2                
MILES IN A TEMPO GROUP.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
AVIATION...BGM                                                                  
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE            
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1042 AM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS AND 12Z RAOBS SHOW 110KT JET FROM              
SRN MN TO SRN WI...SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE DIVING SE ACROSS NRN WI                 
ATTM. MAIN AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE IS                 
PASSING THRU ERN WI WHERE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR              
CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. FORCING COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND              
-14C IS LEADING TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IN THE WSW FLOW ACROSS NRN                
LAKE MICHIGAN AND BAY OF GREEN BAY. NRN FRINGE OF THE ENHANCED SNOW             
IS JUST BRUSHING THE GARDEN PENINSULA/SRN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND FAR            
SE LUCE COUNTY. AT THE SFC...ONCE AGAIN A SHARP CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS            
SETUP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. N OR NW WINDS ARE NOTED JUST OFF THE                
NSHORE OF MN WITH NE WINDS ACROSS ISLE ROYALE/NRN LAKE SUPERIOR                 
TRANSITIONING TO SE WINDS TOWARD WHITEFISH BAY. SW WINDS ARE THE                
RULE ACROSS THE REST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. KDLH RADAR INDICATES A BAND              
OF MDT LES ALONG THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE OFFSHORE OF MN.                      
ALREADY UPDATED FCST TO INCLUDE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1               
INCH FOR THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW MOVING ONSHORE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.              
WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE WRLY EARLY THIS AFTN...SO SHORT            
DURATION COMBINED WITH MAIN ENHANCED SNOW REMAINING JUST SE OF FCST             
AREA WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WITH SHORTWAVE                       
QUICKLY DROPPING SE...SUBSIDENCE WILL BE OVERSPREADING UPPER MI                 
DURING THE AFTN...BRINGING A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE GENERAL -SN               
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. NEXT CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF WIND FIELD OVER              
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED LES. MOST OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY               
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INDICATE ONE OR TWO ILL-DEFINED                    
MESOLOWS DEVELOPING ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE AS IT DRIFTS SE. MOVEMENT            
SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH OVER THE W TO BRING SOME LES ONSHORE THERE               
LATER IN THE AFTN. SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND                     
SHORTWAVE BY THE TIME LES IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ARRIVES SHOULD                
WORK TO KEEP ACCUMULATIONS UNDER CONTROL. MIGHT SEE A FEW INCHES OF             
SNOW THIS AFTN/TONIGHT IN A FEW SPOTS DEPENDING ON HOW THE                      
CONVERGENCE SETS UP AS IT ARRIVES ALONG THE SHORE.                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 353 AM EST                                        
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                
MORE SNOW.                                                                      
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LAKE OF               
THE WOODS AREA ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH             
BLANKETS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. STRONGEST Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.            
SNOW IS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...DUE TO DRYNESS AT THE LOW            
LEVELS IT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF VIRGA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A               
LOW ALSO OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM                  
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN            
KANSAS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY                 
THROUGH THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO            
EASTERN ONTARIO. ANOTHER RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA.              
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL U.P. TODAY DRAWING THE MID            
LEVEL ENERGIES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP              
THROUGH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN U.P. THE STRONGEST                      
ACCOMPANYING 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT INTO LOWER               
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE AN            
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. BY LATE                    
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO SWEEP INTO CENTRAL U.P. TODAY.             
THE WINDS WILL BE BACKING SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WRF                     
INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY MID              
MORNING OVER THE AREA. THUS EVEN THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE                
SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE                 
WOULD LIMIT PRODUCTION OF LES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SO PLAN TO                
DROP THE ADVISORY AND WARNINGS.                                                 
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS AND SWINGS EAST...ANOTHER WEAK                     
SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL                 
SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE               
INTO LAKE HURON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN             
MANITOBA WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT STRETCHED INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. THE             
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SETTLE INTO THE                      
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND -14C. MEAN               
SURFACE-900MB RH WILL BE 80-90 PERCENT. MID LEVELS STABILITY                    
INDICATE MAINLY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THE SURFACE                  
WILLING WILL VEER NORTHWEST AGAIN FOLLOWING THE LOW. STILL THERE                
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE LAPSE                           
RATE...NORTHWEST WINDS...AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LES OVER             
THE AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER THE SPINE OF THE              
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND OVER THE LAKE SHORE AREA EAST OF MARQUETTE.              
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS MOVING                 
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT            
PRECIPITATION. WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NCEP ENSEMBLE/                 
CANADIAN/UKMET COMPROMISE AS SUGGESTED BY HPC FOR TIMING.                       
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE                   
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA             
DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WINDS AHEAD OF                  
THE FRONT WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. REDUCING LAKE EFFECT             
SNOWS OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE DELTA-T'S OVER            
THE LAKE AROUND 15C OVER THE WEST AND 18C OVER THE EAST. WIND                   
DIRECTION WOULD ONLY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT LES OCCURRING OVER THE                 
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OVER WISCONSIN AND               
COULD TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE U.P. SO WILL               
ADD A CHANCE THERE.                                                             
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING THE               
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST                   
AGAIN...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN U.P. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP               
THROUGH THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL AGAIN ADVECT INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING            
THE FROPA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE              
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE...A HIGH WILL                 
DEVELOP OVER SASKATCHEWAN.                                                      
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON                
WEDNESDAY WHILE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. A             
THERMAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE OVER                   
ONTARIO...LOWERING THE 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO                 
AROUND -20C. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST QUEBEC ON                 
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH                
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST             
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO SET UP            
ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO LES WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW.            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON (UPDATE)                                                                
DLG (PREV DISCUSSION)                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                             
419 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...                                  
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO              
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY TONIGHT INTO EARLY                  
TUESDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA /12KM NAM AND LOCAL WRF/ ARE                
QUITE ADAMANT ABOUT PRODUCING A MESOSCALE LES BAND OFF OF LAKE                  
ONTARIO STARTING AROUND 06Z TNT AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z             
TUE. BLYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SWERLY AHEAD OF APPROACHING S/W            
AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER-LIKE FEATURE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE                  
UPPER GREAT LAKES. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE RESULTING FROM A                     
MESOSCALE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL INDUCE FAVORABLE UVVEL WITHIN THE                
PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH REGION ALONG A NARROW WNW-SSE CORRIDOR FROM               
KFZY TO KUCA AROUND MIDNIGHT...PERSISTING THRU EARLY TUESDAY. IN                
ADDITION...BOTH HI RES MODELS ALSO DEVELOP WHAT APPEARS TO BE A                 
MESO-LOW WITH ITS OWN VORT CENTER OVER ERN LAKE ONTARIO WITH A                  
WARM FRONTAL-LIKE CONVERGENCE AREA ALIGNED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED              
NARROW BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALSO OF NOTE...IS THE 04/12Z RUN OF THE                 
LCL WRF MODEL WHICH GENERATES AS MUCH AS 30+ INCHES SNOW ACCUM                  
INTO WRN OSWEGO CO WITH CLOSE TO A FOOT IN WRN ONEIDA CO. HMM.                  
NEVERTHELESS (AS A START?)...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW                     
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF ONEIDA CO FROM 1AM THRU 10AM TUES WITH                      
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. IF THE BAND PERSISTS LONGER AS THE              
MESOSCALE/HI RES NAM/WRF WOULD INDICATE...AN UPGRADE TO THE                     
STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED.                                                        
LES ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH                
PRESSURE SLIDES EWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AHEAD OF NEXT MID LEVEL            
TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MAV/MET BLEND             
FOR TEMPERATURES.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...                                        
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SOMETIME WED-THUR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH               
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING...WHICH IS EVIDENCED THE 04/12Z BGM FSU               
CONFIDENCE GRAPH. INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT                
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTNDD PERIODS AND HAVE BASICALLY                
WENT ALONG WITH HPC GUID WITH BLEND FROM THE MEN/MEX FOR                        
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LES ACTIVITY AGAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF               
THIS NEXT WAVE. BEYOND THAT...THE ERN CONUS MEAN TROF BEGINS TO                 
LIFT OUT TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BEGINS TO               
BREAK DOWN AND THE WRN NOAM RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EWD. GRADUAL                   
INCREASE H5 HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SLOW MODERATION IN                    
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES OVER                 
THE WEST WITH CONFLUENT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EAST BY                  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CAUSE REDUCED CIG/VIZ PROBLEMS ACROSS THE              
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORAVIA TO ONEONTA. RADAR SHOWS A            
WIDE AREA WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER BANDS AFFECTING THE REGION FROM            
ABOUT SYRACUSE TO HAMILTON AND UTICA. RUC AND NAM12 AGREE IN                    
SHUTTING THINGS DOWN PRETTY QUICK BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z AS LOW LEVEL               
THERMAL TROF PASSES AND WINDS TAKE ON A MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST                  
FETCH. HOWEVER...PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING              
TOUGH SO I DON'T HOLD OUT A LOT OF HOPE FOR RAPID CLEARING. KEPT                
UCA/SYR MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS BEING THE ISSUE ALONG               
WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT            
SHORTWAVE STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THE REST OF THE               
TERMINALS SHUD BE MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS BELOW 3000/5 IN            
JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ009-037 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO              
     10 AM TUESDAY.                                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL                                                          
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL                                                           
AVIATION...LA CORTE                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
140 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER             
THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUE THEN MOVE OFFSHORE WED. THIS WILL KEEP               
SKIES MAINLY CLR AS ATMS REMAINS DRY. WILL BE A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT              
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S               
INLAND TO UPR 30S OBX. WL CONT FREEZE WARNING INTERIOR NE CST WHERE             
WE THINK THERE HAS YET TO BE A FREEZE. TEMPS TUE WILL BE A LITTLE               
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS HIGH MOVES               
OFFSHR WED LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME S/SW...THIS COMBINED WITH 850               
TEMPS APPROACHING +5C SHLD GIVE HIGHS IN LOWER 60S MANY SPOTS.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...COLD FRONT AND UPR TRF            
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W WED NIGHT. MDLS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ALONG               
THE CST SO WILL MAINTAIN SILENT POP 20 CSTL SITES LATER WED NIGHT               
INTO THU...HOWEVER REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN POSS A FEW               
SPRINKLES. VERY COLD AIR WILL SWEEP IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT               
INTO FRI AND EXPECT HIGHS FRI AND SAT TO HOLD IN THE 40S. FRI NIGHT             
LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH SOME INLAND SITES FLIRTING WITH 20. FOR SUN               
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY AS UPR TRF IS                   
REPLACED WITH WEAK/BROAD RIDGING.                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THRU THE NEXT 24            
HOURS UNDER DRY AIRMASS.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...TOUGH PART OF FCST IS DURATION OF SCA WINDS/SEAS OVER                 
THE CSTL WATERS. LATEST RUC IS CLOSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND                
HAVE ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED IT IN THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS. IT SHOWS                
WINDS SUBSIDING BY 00Z. IT WILL LIKELY TAKES SEAS ABOUT 6 HOURS                 
LONGER OVER THE WATERS N OF OCRACOKE AND WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT              
ADVISORY NORTH OF OCRACOKE THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER SCA WILL              
BE DROPPED AT ISSUANCE. AXIS OF STRONG SFC HIGH SHOULD WORK ITS                 
WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TUES NIGHT/WEDS WITH LIGHT                     
GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO                
FRIDAY AS NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. VERY STRONG               
CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS                       
-10C...SO WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE BUMPED UP OVER THE NEXT FEW              
DAYS.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR               
     NCZ046-047-081.                                                            
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ150-152-        
     154.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...FREDERICK                                                          
LONG TERM...FREDERICK                                                           
AVIATION...COLLINS                                                              
MARINE...COLLINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
715 PM CST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...                                              
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER THE RED RIVER            
VALLEY WITH RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. IN WAKE OF AXIS STRONG           
PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IN ADVANCE OF              
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM ALBERTA PROVINCE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.           
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO SHOW PROGRESSIVE U/L FLOW               
OVER CONUS WITH S/W ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NOTED BY LARGE             
AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUNCHING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA.                
.FORECAST DETAILS.(OVERNIGHT)...                                                
GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AT OOZ...            
THUS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO OVERNIGHT FORECAST. PROGRESSIVE                  
PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER CWFA DURING NEXT 24 AS SURFACE RIDGE                   
SHIFTS TO EAST OF CWFA LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY TROUGH TRAVERSING               
CWFA ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. DEVELOPING             
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS             
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY FROM            
THE VALLEY WEST THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS EXPECTED THE 2ND             
HALF OF THE NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAS THIS IDEA IN              
MIND...THUS ONLY SOME MINOR UPDATES TO HOURLY TEMP TRENDS EXPECTED.             
IN ADDITION LATEST RUC SHOWS SOME DEVELOPING 700MB ASCENT AHEAD OF              
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE ADVECTION            
WARRANTS KEEPING IN SLIGHT POP RISK TOO. SO TO SUM IT UP IN A NUTSHELL          
APPEARS AS THOUGH ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BERG                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
953 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...                                                
WARM ADVECTION HAS COMMENCED ACROSS CENTRAL PA UNDER LIMITED                    
MOISTURE. SCATTERED FLURRIES ENTERING WESTERN AREAS ACCORDING TO                
LATEST METARS...BUT NOT EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF MY                    
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFTER WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND                 
LAKE ENHANCED BANDS ARRIVE.                                                     
TWEAKED TEMPS SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS              
AND LOWER SUSQ. AS UPSTREAM BINOVC AS PER GOES IR IMAGERY SHOULD                
ALLOW SLIGHTLY LARGER TEMP RANGES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER              
ASPECTS OF GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
 /ISSUED 213 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006/                                             
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                         
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS            
IN THE NW AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WX              
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEFORE LK EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHSN RETURN            
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING.                                                 
LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO WIND FIELDS CONTINUING TO             
BACK THRU 00/03Z...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE NW AGAIN. AS THE                  
CROSS-LAKE WINDS GET NEARLY PARALLEL LATE TONIGHT AROUND 290 DEGS               
AND UPLIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 6-10 HOURS AROUND 12Z...WE EXPECT TO             
SEE SHSN DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NW. THE FETCH/RESIDENCE TIME OF THE               
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKE IS NOT ALL THAT LONG...BUT THE TEMPERATURE               
PROFILE OF THE TOP TWO-THIRDS OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND RUSH                    
HOUR IS VERY NEARLY PERFECT FOR MAXIMIZED DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH              
AT -10 TO -18C. IN ADDITION...THE UVV/S AS CHARACTERIZED BY THE                 
OMEGA FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 7-10KFT ARE VERY STRONG AT THE SAME                  
TIME. THUS...WE COULD SEE VERY DRAMTIC SNOW RATES AND BAD VISBYS                
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL GO FOR SNOW ACCUMS 3-5 INCHES              
IN WARREN COUNTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE NW CORNER COULD GET 6 OR                    
MORE..BUT NOT COUNTY-WIDE. WILL GO FOR LESSER ACCUMS IN THE ADJACENT            
COUNTIES/ZONES...BUT STILL LIKELY POPS.                                         
SUMMING IT UP...WILL POST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR WARREN                
COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR A TOTAL OF 3-5                  
INCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY. EVE/MID SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR               
POSSIBLY EXPANDING THE ADVSRY TO ADJ AREAS OR EVEN UPGRADING TO A               
WARNING.                                                                        
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...CLOSE TO GUID. MID            
20S TO UPPER 30S WILL BE THE MAXES ON TUES. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND               
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP THE LOWER SUSQ GET CLOSE TO 40.                            
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                     
FIRST DAY BACK SINCE MONSTER STORM THAT WRECK HAVOC ON MUCH OF THE              
COUNTRY THE LATER PART OF LAST WEEK.                                            
ANYWAY...OTHER THAN THE FRONT THAT COME IN LAST NIGHT...AND ANOTHER             
ONE TUE AM...NEXT FRONT WILL BE LATE WED/THU. OVERALL...A MUCH                  
MORE TAME PATTERN...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS            
AND HPC HAVE LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM THE                
PLAINS BY THU.                                                                  
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES...DID LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE FROM HPC                   
EARLY ON...GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR IS.                                           
WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFTER 00Z SAT...AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND WINDS                
SHIFT TO THE W-SW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME               
HINTS OF A BIGGER STORM AT SOME POINT...BUT HARD TO SEE ANYTHING                
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
AVIATION...                                                                     
MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE NW TAFS /JST+BFD/ SHOULD START TO LIFT SHORTLY             
AS THE FLOW IS BACKING AND LOWER MOISTURE ADVECTING IN. SOME MID                
CLOUDS RACING THRU OH ATTM SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT AS THEY GET HERE.              
SO...A GENERALLY VFR FORECAST THRU 06Z...WHEN FLOW VEERS AGAIN AND              
BRINGS THE WRN TAFS DOWN...ESP KBFD. KBFD AND KJST MAY SEE PERIODS              
OF IFR AND LIFR IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS...BTWN 08Z AND              
15Z. CIGS AT UNV/IPT/AOO SHOULD DANCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AGAIN IN             
THE MORNING...BUT THE VSBYS WILL ONLY DIP IF THE SNOW SHOWERS CAN               
HOLD TOGETHER. THEN THE INVERSION LOWERS A BIT AND FLOW BACKS                   
AGAIN...BRINGING IMPROVEMENT TO THE FLYING WX FOR ALL. KMDT AND                 
POINTS IN THE SE WILL NOT GO BLO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THRU THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ004 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
213 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...                                        
MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS            
IN THE NW AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WX              
IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEFORE LK EFFECT CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SHSN RETURN            
FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING.                                                 
LATEST RUC/NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ALL POINT TO WIND FIELDS CONTINUING TO             
BACK THRU 00/03Z...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE NW AGAIN. AS THE                  
CROSS-LAKE WINDS GET NEARLY PARALLEL LATE TONIGHT AROUND 290 DEGS               
AND UPLIFT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE 6-10 HOURS AROUND 12Z...WE EXPECT TO             
SEE SHSN DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE NW. THE FETCH/RESIDENCE TIME OF THE               
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKE IS NOT ALL THAT LONG...BUT THE TEMPERATURE               
PROFILE OF THE TOP TWO-THIRDS OF THE CLOUD LAYER AROUND RUSH                    
HOUR IS VERY NEARLY PERFECT FOR MAXIMIZED DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH              
AT -10 TO -18C. IN ADDITION...THE UVV/S AS CHARACTERIZED BY THE                 
OMEGA FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 7-10KFT ARE VERY STRONG AT THE SAME                  
TIME. THUS...WE COULD SEE VERY DRAMTIC SNOW RATES AND BAD VISBYS                
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL GO FOR SNOW ACCUMS 3-5 INCHES              
IN WARREN COUNTY. SOME SPOTS IN THE NW CORNER COULD GET 6 OR                    
MORE..BUT NOT COUNTY-WIDE. WILL GO FOR LESSER ACCUMS IN THE ADJACENT            
COUNTIES/ZONES...BUT STILL LIKELY POPS.                                         
SUMMING IT UP...WILL POST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR WARREN                
COUNTY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR A TOTAL OF 3-5                  
INCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY. EVE/MID SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR               
POSSIBLY EXPANDING THE ADVSRY TO ADJ AREAS OR EVEN UPGRADING TO A               
WARNING.                                                                        
MINS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...CLOSE TO GUID. MID            
20S TO UPPER 30S WILL BE THE MAXES ON TUES. DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND               
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP THE LOWER SUSQ GET CLOSE TO 40.                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
FIRST DAY BACK SINCE MONSTER STORM THAT WRECK HAVOC ON MUCH OF THE              
COUNTRY THE LATER PART OF LAST WEEK.                                            
ANYWAY...OTHER THAN THE FRONT THAT COME IN LAST NIGHT...AND ANOTHER             
ONE TUE AM...NEXT FRONT WILL BE LATE WED/THU. OVERALL...A MUCH                  
MORE TAME PATTERN...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS            
AND HPC HAVE LARGE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FROM THE                
PLAINS BY THU.                                                                  
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES...DID LOWER TEMPS A LITTLE FROM HPC                   
EARLY ON...GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR IS.                                           
WENT WITH A DRY FCST AFTER 00Z SAT...AS HEIGHTS RISE...AND WINDS                
SHIFT TO THE W-SW. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME               
HINTS OF A BIGGER STORM AT SOME POINT...BUT HARD TO SEE ANYTHING                
AT THIS POINT.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
MVFR CLOUDS OVER THE NW TAFS /JST+BFD/ SHOULD START TO LIFT SHORTLY             
AS THE FLOW IS BACKING AND LOWER MOISTURE ADVECTING IN. SOME MID                
CLOUDS RACING THRU OH ATTM SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT AS THEY GET HERE.              
SO...A GENERALLY VFR FORECAST THRU 06Z...WHEN FLOW VEERS AGAIN AND              
BRINGS THE WRN TAFS DOWN...ESP KBFD. KBFD AND KJST MAY SEE PERIODS              
OF IFR AND LIFR IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HRS...BTWN 08Z AND              
15Z. CIGS AT UNV/IPT/AOO SHOULD DANCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AGAIN IN             
THE MORNING...BUT THE VSBYS WILL ONLY DIP IF THE SNOW SHOWERS CAN               
HOLD TOGETHER. THEN THE INVERSION LOWERS A BIT AND FLOW BACKS                   
AGAIN...BRINGING IMPROVEMENT TO THE FLYING WX FOR ALL. KMDT AND                 
POINTS IN THE SE WILL NOT GO BLO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THRU THE                 
PERIOD.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ004 FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM                  
TUESDAY.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DANGELO                                                            
LONG TERM...MARTIN                                                              
AVIATION...DANGELO                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
856 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...                                                      
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES       
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE           
OVERNIGHT...SO WILL MENTION SOME LOCALIZED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT.        
ELSEWHERE...SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR COME TO               
AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...MODELS AND SATELLITE         
LOOP SHOW A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME THAT WILL               
MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND BE OVER THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.               
THUS...WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS                   
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE                
THE ZONE FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING.                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006/                          
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                        
THERE SHOULD BE TWO MECHANISMS THAT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS            
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  FIRST IS THE STEEP LOW LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE            
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.  THEN A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE             
EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD OUR AREA                      
OVERNIGHT.  SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN A BIT AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER                  
TROUGH TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BACKING FLOW TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF            
THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO            
BE PUSHED INTO OUR AREA...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL THREAT             
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND            
IT APPEARS A LAKE BAND WILL EXIST OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.  THE             
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEW                
YORK WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION            
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...                
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE               
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS UPPER              
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TO WARM THE AIR            
MASS AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.  MAIN PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT/850 MB FRONT AND THAT DOES NOT             
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.              
WELL DEFINED THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS AT 850 MB AND THUS                         
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF              
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED.  WILL MENTION LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER THE                
ENTIRE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  NOT A LOT              
OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME                   
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE                  
INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER                  
TROUGH.                                                                         
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                    
TRENDS LOOK LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRIER             
NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.  COLDEST 850 MB AIR WILL BE             
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN             
THE FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD                
BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND ALONG WITH A DRY PERIOD.  THUS WILL NOT              
MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.                    
AVIATION...                                                                     
LCL IFR DUE TO VSBY 1-3SM IN INSTABILITY SHSN- THROUGH SUNSET THEN              
MVFR/VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.  LOW PRESSURE              
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN                     
DISSIPATES TOMORROW AS IT RUNS INTO A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.              
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING/ADVECTION OF            
THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT THE AREA                 
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUE. AT THIS TIME            
HAVE NOT REDUCED CIGS/VSBY AS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND LITTLE                    
SYNOPTIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT INDICATED. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE                
STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BEST IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE              
NAM/GFS SEEM TO WASH THE SYSTEM OUT TOO QUICKLY.                                
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...WGH                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
312 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                       
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...                                       
THERE SHOULD BE TWO MECHANISMS THAT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS            
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  FIRST IS THE STEEP LOW LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE            
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.  THEN A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE             
EAST ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD TOWARD OUR AREA                      
OVERNIGHT.  SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN A BIT AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER                  
TROUGH TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...BACKING FLOW TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF            
THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO            
BE PUSHED INTO OUR AREA...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL THREAT             
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.  WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND            
IT APPEARS A LAKE BAND WILL EXIST OFF OF EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.  THE             
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NEW                
YORK WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS BAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION            
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...                
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO BE DRY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE               
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS UPPER              
FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER               
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  WARM AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE TO WARM THE AIR            
MASS AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY.  MAIN PRECIPITATION               
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT/850 MB FRONT AND THAT DOES NOT             
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.              
WELL DEFINED THERMAL GRADIENT EXISTS AT 850 MB AND THUS                         
FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF              
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED.  WILL MENTION LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER THE                
ENTIRE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  NOT A LOT              
OF PRECIPITATION...BUT COULD SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SOME                   
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE                  
INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER                  
TROUGH.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...                                   
TRENDS LOOK LIKE A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED WITH DRIER             
NORTHWEST FLOW INITIALLY IN THE PERIOD.  COLDEST 850 MB AIR WILL BE             
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN             
THE FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE AND DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD                
BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND ALONG WITH A DRY PERIOD.  THUS WILL NOT              
MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LCL IFR DUE TO VSBY 1-3SM IN INSTABILITY SHSN- THROUGH SUNSET THEN              
MVFR/VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.  LOW PRESSURE              
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN                     
DISSIPATES TOMORROW AS IT RUNS INTO A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.              
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT...SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING/ADVECTION OF            
THE LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS AND -SHSN/FLURRIES WILL AFFECT THE AREA                 
GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF TUE. AT THIS TIME            
HAVE NOT REDUCED CIGS/VSBY AS SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND LITTLE                    
SYNOPTIC/OROGRAPHIC LIFT INDICATED. RUC SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE                
STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM BEST IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE              
NAM/GFS SEEM TO WASH THE SYSTEM OUT TOO QUICKLY.                                
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT/LONG TERM...EVENSON                                                       
AVIATION...SISSON                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1151 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
AS PER CURRENT TRENDS...06Z TAFS WILL REFLECT VARIABLE MVFR/VFR                 
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS TRY TO DEVELOP EAST                
OVER FORECAST AREA...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING THIS MAINLY AT               
KDET/KDTW TAF SITES. MVFR VISIBILITIES...AT WORST...IN SNOW                     
SHOWERS MENTIONED...HOWEVER. AS IN PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...DAYTIME                  
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BECOMING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS/VFR BY                  
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED VFR TUESDAY EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER OF                
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 911 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                             
UPDATE...                                                                       
ZONE FORECASTS/GRIDS HAVE BEEN TWEAKED VERY SLIGHTLY FOR THE                    
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WANE AND IS                   
PRESENTLY MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I 69. FOR MOST OF THE                     
REMAINING OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE BOOSTED THE POPS FOR THE                      
COUNTIES NEAR THE OH BORDER...AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SEEM TO               
CONCENTRATE BEST SNOWFALL/BANDING TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST                  
AREA OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I                             
94...GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES 12 HOUR SNOWFALL ENDING              
BY 12Z TUESDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST MI.                       
THEREFORE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE...AND ZONE                   
FORECAST WORDING HAS BEEN REFRESHED.                                            
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 357 PM EST MON DEC 4 2006                              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY                                                
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...                    
POTENT UPPER WAVE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON              
AND PROVIDING THE REGION WITH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL.              
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BACK TO AROUND 1 MILE IN THE HEAVIER                  
SNOWFALL BUT SNOWFLAKE SIZE REMAIN RATHER SMALL AND ACCUMULATIONS               
HAVE REMAINED LIGHT (< 1").  THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST THIS                   
EVENING AND WE WILL TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE PURE LAKE EFFECT                   
OVERNIGHT.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/NAM               
SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CLIMBING BETWEEN 725-800MB AND                   
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING.  TRAJECTORIES WILL                 
AVERAGE AROUND 270 DEGREES THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING AND IMPACT              
THE M59-I96 CORRIDOR THEN WINDS VEER TOWARD 290-300 DEGREES                     
OVERNIGHT;  THIS WILL PLACE BAND(S) OF SNOW CLOSER TO I96-I94                   
OVERNIGHT.  DUE TO THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THESE BANDS...WILL PLACE            
THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW FOR LIVINGSTON/WASHTENAW COUNTIES              
WITH A 1-3" AND 1" OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE                     
MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE                   
(MAINLY ALONG THE M59 CORRIDOR AND TOWARD ARB-DTW). LATEST 18Z                  
NAM/RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 12Z WRF OUTPUT POINT TOWARD A MORE INTENSE             
BAND BETWEEN 05-09Z AND EVENING SHIFT WILL MONITOR TRENDS.                      
INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP UPSTREAM LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION                  
OCCURS UPSTREAM AND SURFACE RIDGE CRESTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND              
SUNRISE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE LAKE BAND INTENSITIES ACROSS                      
SOUTHEAST LOWER AND KEEP THE BANDS RIGHT NEAR THE SHORELINE BEFORE              
DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING. THEN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR MOVES                 
ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS              
NEXT CLIPPER IS ON THE WAY. AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL                   
MOISTURE WILL TAKE PLACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING CPD/S WILL               
COMMENCE RATHER QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE TRI CITIES MIGHT               
BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE LATE                        
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE ONCE AGAIN TO CLIMB TOWARD                 
THE FREEZING MARK AWAY FROM METRO DTW.                                          
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THE 12Z MODELS ARE CLUSTERING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION ON THE                   
SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT               
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS GOOD BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS                  
AFTERNOON SHOWING THE WAVE ALONG THE CANADIAN WEST COAST SHEARING               
INLAND ON THE SOUTH END WITH A DISTINCT CIRCULATION NEARLY INTO                 
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN THIS REGARD                
WILL BRING LIKELY POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT AND              
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY                   
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN BY EVENING. THE                
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT                 
STILL LOOKS ON THE DRY SIDE JUDGING FROM MODEL RH FIELDS AND CROSS              
SECTIONS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A DUSTING IN THE TRI                    
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ON THE                   
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE IN                   
PLACE IN TIME FOR SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DCVA FROM THE               
SHORT BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG              
THE COLD FRONT, WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION              
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.                                                    
CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER               
WAVE ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FROM NORTHERN CANADA.                
THIS WAVE, ALONG WITH A SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL             
AMPLIFY THE UPPER FLOW AND LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IN LOWER            
MICHIGAN. TRENDS IN THE 12Z MODEL DATA INDICATE A MORE MERIDIONAL               
UPPER FLOW AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SE MICHIGAN AND            
A MORE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE LAKES. EXPECT THIS             
TO BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO THE THUMB DURING THURSDAY AND               
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERLY FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME CLOUD                
FREE CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR OF LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOME OF THE             
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON.                                    
FRIDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOWARD A                
WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE             
FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE INTO LOWER               
MICHIGAN AND TURNING THE WINDS TOWARD THE SW ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN            
MIND, WE WILL SHADE THE FORECAST ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GFS/MEX                  
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY AND THEN CATCH UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LHZ421...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM              
   PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON...7 PM TUESDAY TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY.                  
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION AND UPDATE...DWD                                                       
SHORT TERM...BGM                                                                
LONG TERM....BT                                                                 
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS                   
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi