000
WTUS84 KMOB 100253 CCA
HLSMOB
ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-100431-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
952 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2005

...LATEST TRACK OF HURRICANE DENNIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS...

...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS 
OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST 
FLORIDA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... 
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF MOBILE
AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AS WELL AS ESCAMBIA...
SANTA ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES IN THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE.  INLAND HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR INLAND 
MOBILE AND BALDWIN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND ESCAMBIA...SANTA 
ROSA...AND OKALOOSA COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA.  AN INLAND 
HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHOCTAW...CLARKE... CONECUH... 
ESCAMBIA...MONROE...WASHINGTON AND WILCOX COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST 
ALABAMA AND GREENE AND WAYNE COUNTIES OF INLAND SOUTHEAST 
MISSISSIPPI. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR 
BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND COVINGTON COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH 
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGE...PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES OF INLAND 
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 930 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 300 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...OR ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTHEAST 
OF ORANGE BEACH ALABAMA.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES DENNIS A CATEGORY 3 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS 
EXPECTED...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BEFORE 
LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA
OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE 
SHELTERS.  SOME TYPE OF EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED FOR ALL OF THE 
COASTAL COUNTIES.  IF YOU LIVE NEAR THE WATER AND ARE ORDERED TO 
EVACUATE...DO SO.  EVERY HURRICANE IS DIFFERENT AND JUST BECAUSE YOU 
HAVE MADE IT THROUGH OTHER STORMS WITH VERY LITTLE DAMAGE...DO NOT 
ASSUME THAT DENNIS WILL BE THE SAME. DON'T BE A STATISTIC.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. COMBINED 
WITH SURGE...THE LATTER COULD RESULT IN A TOTAL STORM SURGE 
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 11 AND 16 FEET.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE JUST 
TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL. THE LATEST FORECAST 
PLACES THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD FROM GULF SHORES EAST TO 
ESCAMBIA BAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG 
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...SIMILAR TO THAT PRODUCED BY HURRICANE IVAN OF 
2004.  RESIDENTS OF MOBILE BAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABREAST OF 
THIS SITUATION...BECAUSE IF DENNIS' TRACK SHIFTS ANY FARTHER TO THE 
WEST OVERNIGHT...MOBILE BAY FORECAST STORM SURGE VALUES COULD 
INCREASE TO THE 11 TO 16 FEET RANGE.

...WIND IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...DENNIS SHOULD BE
VERY SIMILAR TO HURRICANE IVAN OF 2004. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY 
EVENING.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY BE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE 
AT LANDFALL.  THUS...MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  HURRICANE 
FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING WITH 
THE HIGHEST WINDS BEING NEAR THE CENTER AND JUST TO THE EAST OF 
DENNIS.  THERE IS ONE LAST CHANCE TO SECURE ALL LOOSE OBJECTS. 
UNSECURED LOOSE OBJECTS CAN BECOME DEADLY PROJECTILES IN SUCH HIGH 
WIND CONDITIONS. 

...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...
RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. ON SUNDAY...OF COURSE...
HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY.
PEOPLE ARE DISCOURAGED FROM SWIMMING...SURFING AND RECREATIONAL 
BOATING UNTIL DENNIS MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. DO NOT GO BACK 
INTO THE WATER TOO EARLY...AS RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE AS DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL
AND MOVES INLAND. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY MOIST DUE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM CINDY AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE
MORE RUNOFF AND RESULT IN A DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD SITUATION AS DENNIS
MOVES INLAND. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND
AND DON'T DROWN.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE TORNADO THREAT HAS INCREASED EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATE THIS 
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS DENNIS MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD. 
USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HURRICANE INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN 
THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CENTER.  THE THREAT 
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF DENNIS MOVES FURTHER 
WESTWARD.  THE SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE 
EYE DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE TORNADO WARNINGS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH LATE 
SUNDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 
MIDNIGHT.

$$

MEDLIN