AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
610 PM CST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION....                                                                 
AS OF 20 UTC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF SFC/UA IN CONJUNCTION WITH                  
SAT AND RUC-20 IMAGERY REVEALED A PLETHORA OF FEATURES RELEVANT                 
TO THIS FCST PACKAGE. THE PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR               
OUR RELATIVELY MILD NOV TEMPS WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN                       
AND MIGRATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SE U.S COAST WITH A PORTION                    
OF ITS ATTENDANT MID-LVL RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO AND ACROSS NRN                  
IL. A LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV TROUGH OVER LOWER MI HAD ORPHANED ITS                  
SFC-H85 COLD FRONT AS IT TRANSLATED EAST ATOP THE BERMUDA HIGH'S                
RIDGE. AN ELONGATED/ASYMMETRIC CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE TX                  
PHNDL-WTX WAS WELL TAPPED INTO THE GOM MOISTURE AND BEGINNING TO                
SLOWLY TRANSLATE NEWARD. IN BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW AND RIDGE                    
AXIS EXISTED AN INCREASING MIDLVL CONFLUENCE ZONE DENOTING THE                  
AXIS OF GREATEST WAA. A DAMPENING S/WV TROUGH OVER ERN KS WAS                   
ROTATING NORTH ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, SHRA               
HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NE AND WRN IA. AT THE SFC A WEAK SFC LOW               
WAS PARKED OVER SE MN WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING                   
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE CWA AND INTO                       
SRN IN. SCT-BKN SKIES EXISTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT.                     
MEANWHILE A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED AIRMASS NORTH OF 62N AND WEST                
OF 75W CONTINUED TO COOL OVER ITS SOURCE REGION.                                
FOR TONIGHT FG SHOULD REDEVELOP EARLY, AS SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS                
OVER THE WRN/SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEN LATER TONIGHT, THE                   
SHRA OVER ERN NE/WRN IA SHOULD WORK INTO THE CWA AS THE                         
SUPPORTING WAVE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE.               
AS THE WAVE EXITS TO OUR EAST A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE (COLD                      
FRONT) WILL WORK INTO THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA EARLY TOMORROW.                
DPROG/DT OF THE ETA/GFS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT FAR                 
SOUTH INTO IL BEFORE MIXING NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT.                    
THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IS CURRENTLY                  
DRAPPED W/E ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER WITH A WEAK H85-H7 BAROCLINIC               
ZONE WELL NORTH ACROSS MN AND WI. STATED ANOTHER WAY...IT WILL BE               
DIFFICULT FOR SUCH A SHALLOW FRONT TO PROPAGATE SOUTH THROUGH THE               
CWA TOMORROW GIVEN FLOW THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE BNDRY. HIGH TEMPS               
SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER TOMORROW ACROSS NRN IL. ADDED POPS FOR THE               
ENTIRE DAY ON THR GIVEN ANTICIPATED MORNING SHRA RA WANING AND                  
AFTERNOON PRECIP WAXING.                                                        
THE AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL BE THE LEADING PRECIP ASSOC WITH                      
THE CURRENT WTX LOW, THAT SHOULD BE RAPIDLY MOVING NEWARD THR                   
NIGHT INTO FRI. WIDESPREAD RA APPEARS A GOOD BET THR NIGHT                      
INTO FRI. TEMPS ON FRI CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE                    
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT                  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF WAVES' POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS. SPOTTY                
PRECIP SHOULD LINGER OVER THE REGION ON SAT ALONG WITH ONE LAST                 
DAY OF MILD TEMPS. THE UPSHOT IS COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO                    
ARRIVE UNTIL SUN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. FURTHERMORE, THE                  
AIRMASS DOESN'T APPEAR OVERLY CHILLED. IN FACT, NEARLY ALL MEDIUM               
RANGE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND RELATED ENSEMBLE SUITES INDICATE                 
WARMER TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO THE FACE-VALUE DEPICTION                 
THAT WAS DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...COOLER TO BE SURE BUT NOTHING                   
DRASTIC COMPARED TO NORMALS. EVEN THE MID WEEK COLD FRONT                       
DOESN'T APPEAR TO TAP INTO THE DEVELOPING CA AIRMASS...ITS ONLY                 
A MATTER OF TIME.                                                               
AEP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...                                            
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR             
THIS CYCLE. GENERALLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CURRENTLY ACROSS FORECAST AREA            
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH              
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WILL HAVE                
TROUBLE TRACKING SOUTH TONIGHT AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL VORT MAX TRACKS              
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LITTLE TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY SOUTH                 
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL                  
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN THE                  
MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S AND NIGHTTIME COOLING AND STRENGTHENING                    
INVERSION TONIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT RETURN OF IFR CIGS AFTER 10Z.                  
BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PUSH THROUGH TERMINALS LATE TOMORROW MORNING                
WITH NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD                   
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING GIVEN DIURNAL EFFECTS AND SOME                   
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.                        
CONCERN FOR AFTER 18Z WILL BE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE               
ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. MODEL PROGS SUGGESTING             
SOME COUPLING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAKS TOMORROW              
EVENING WITH INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN             
SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR PROBABLY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST             
PERIOD SO DOES NOT SEEM WORTH A MENTION AT THIS POINT.                          
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
1155 AM CST WED NOV 17                                                          
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
AS BEFORE...CIGS REMAIN PRIMARY AVN WX CONCERN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE              
AXIS FROM WRN GULF MEX INTO NRN IL TODAY...WITH INVERSION ALOFT                 
PREVENTING MUCH MIXING. EXTENSIVE AREA IFR/LIFR DVLPD ACROSS FCST               
AREA LAST NGT...AND WITH ABOVE CONDITIONS HAVING A TOUGH TIME                   
IMPROVING THINGS EVEN THIS AFTN. SOME THINNING/RAISING OF CIGS TO               
MVFR CAT ACROSS ERN IA...AND WITH MODEST DIURNAL WARMING THIS AFTN              
HAVE INDICATED SLGT IMPROVMENT...BUT EXPECT LOWERING BACK TO IFR                
AGAIN THIS EVE GIVEN PERSISTENT MOIST ADVECTION AND INVERSION.                  
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN WI TO ERN NEB THIS AFTN FCST BY             
ETA/GFS TO SLIP INTO NRN IL/NW IND LATE TNGT...WITH WEAK WINDSHIFT              
TO NW BY 12Z THU. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BACKED OFF ON SOUTHWARD              
PUSH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND NOW DEPICT FRONT HANGING UP ACROSS FCST             
AREA AS NEXT STRONGER S/WV MOVES INTO AREA THU NGT. ETA MORE BULLISH            
WITH LLVL DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE BY THU MORNING...HOWEVER ETA               
NOT DOING A REAL GOOD JOB WITH LOW CIGS ATTM...AND GIVEN POTENTIAL              
FOR FRONT TO NOT MAKE IT TOO MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN I-80 PREFER                
LINGERING LOW LVL RH SEEN IN GFS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS. THUS EXPECT              
RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU WITH ONLY VERY              
WEAK DRY LLVL ADVCTN. HAVE INDICATED TREND TOWARD LOW MVFR AFT 14Z              
OR SO...THOUGH THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE AT                 
TIMES WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS...THOUGH UVM APPEARS MINIMAL FOR ANY                
ORGANIZED RA UNTIL AFT 18Z THU AS WAA INCRS AHEAD OF NXT S/WV TROUGH.           
AS FOR WINDS...SW 6-8 KTS THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO              
NW AFT MIDNIGHT...AGAIN REMAINING BLO 10 KTS.                                   
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.MORNING UPDATE DISCUSSION...                                                   
THICK STRATUS, SCATTERED -SHRA, AND/OR -DZ AND FG CONTINUE                      
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. BASED ON 12 UTC RAOBS,                  
PROFILER/88D/SAT TRENDS COUPLED WITH RUC-20 ISENTROPIC AND Q                    
(MIXING RATIO) ANALYSIS ALL INDICATE THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED                    
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON                   
WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION.                   
WILL HAVE AN UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.  05                                       
...PREVIOUS MORNING AFD BELOW...                                                
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WIS THIS MORNING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS                    
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TAIL END OF THE SHOWERS MOVING                   
ACROSS NE IL BUT SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP                  
MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW IN AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE                   
INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT                   
CONTINUED OVERCAST. SOME THICKER FOG FORMING OVER NRN IA AND MN                 
WHERE CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED OR THINNED SUBSTANTIALLY               
IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING VORT MAX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE                
NRN IL AND IN SHOULD HAVE DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TODAY TO                      
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY 4 TO                
6 MILES SO WILL DROP FOG WORDING FROM FORECAST FOR NOW.                         
NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO                  
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE                  
AGAIN TONIGHT...DRYING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. FINALLY MEX UPPER                  
LOW TO LIFT OUT INTO IL BY FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT                 
RAIN TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY                  
FRIDAY. FINALLY DRYING OUT SATURDAY AS WAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NE                
INTO GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                  
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO RUN TOO WARM GIVEN THE                   
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL TEMPER TO LOWER 60S TODAY. WEAK COLD                
FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE                    
EXPECTED. NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS AND STEADY                   
RAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT                  
THROUGH NRN IL. TURNING COOLER SAT AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL                   
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT COLD                 
AIR MASS WAY UP IN NRN CANADA FINALLY GETS TAPPED MID WEEK. WILL                
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.                                                           
ALLSOPP                                                                         
$$                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
915 AM CST WED NOV 17                                                           
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THICK STRATUS, SCATTERED -SHRA, AND/OR -DZ AND FG CONTINUE                      
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. BASED ON 12 UTC RAOBS,                  
PROFILER/88D/SAT TRENDS COUPLED WITH RUC-20 ISENTROPIC AND Q                    
(MIXING RATIO) ANALYSIS ALL INDICATE THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED                    
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON                   
WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING UNDER A STRENGTHENING INVERSION.                   
WILL HAVE AN UPDATED ZFP OUT SHORTLY.  05                                       
...PREVIOUS MORNING AFD BELOW...                                                
VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS WIS THIS MORNING WITH BAND OF SHOWERS                    
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TAIL END OF THE SHOWERS MOVING                   
ACROSS NE IL BUT SHOULD BE ALL BUT OVER BY DAYBREAK. WILL KEEP                  
MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER NW IN AND CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE                   
INTO MID MORNING. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY BUT                   
CONTINUED OVERCAST. SOME THICKER FOG FORMING OVER NRN IA AND MN                 
WHERE CLOUD DECK APPEARS TO HAVE CLEARED OR THINNED SUBSTANTIALLY               
IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING VORT MAX. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE                
NRN IL AND IN SHOULD HAVE DEEP ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TODAY TO                      
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. VISIBILITIES WILL BE GENERALLY 4 TO                
6 MILES SO WILL DROP FOG WORDING FROM FORECAST FOR NOW.                         
NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO                  
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WILL HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE                  
AGAIN TONIGHT...DRYING OUT THURSDAY MORNING. FINALLY MEX UPPER                  
LOW TO LIFT OUT INTO IL BY FRI. THIS SHOULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT                 
RAIN TO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY                  
FRIDAY. FINALLY DRYING OUT SATURDAY AS WAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NE                
INTO GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF                  
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
MOS TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO RUN TOO WARM GIVEN THE                   
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL TEMPER TO LOWER 60S TODAY. WEAK COLD                
FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THURSDAY BUT NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE                    
EXPECTED. NOTICEABLY COOLER FRIDAY WITH EAST WINDS AND STEADY                   
RAIN. STILL LOOKS LIKE STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS LATE FRIDAY                
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT                  
THROUGH NRN IL. TURNING COOLER SAT AFTERNOON. SEASONABLY COOL                   
AIRMASS SETTLES IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS INDICATES THAT COLD                 
AIR MASS WAY UP IN NRN CANADA FINALLY GETS TAPPED MID WEEK. WILL                
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.                                                           
&&                                                                              
ALLSOPP                                                                         
.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 12Z TAFS...                                      
ONCE AGAIN TODAY CIGS WILL BE PRIMARY WX PROBLEM.  UNSEASONABLY                 
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACRS AREA ON SWLY SFC                  
FLOW THAT SHOULD RMN ARND 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.  IFR CIGS                   
HAVE MOVED ACRS TERMINALS IN WAKE OF WEAK MID LVL TROF THAT                     
PRODUCED LGT SHWRS OVRNIGHT.  EXPECT CIGS/VIS TO RMN IFR WITH                   
OCNL BR/DZ TIL ARND 15Z WHEN DIURNAL SFC WARMING SHUD ALLOW CIGS                
TO BEGIN LIFTING INTO MVFR RANGE. LGT SWLY SFC FLOW TO CONT WELL                
INTO TNGT...AND WITH AMS AT OR NR SATURATION...IFR CONDS SHOULD                 
REDEVELOP AGN LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...BUILDING HI PRES OVR                
ONTARIO IS FCST TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THRU RGN AFT ABOUT 08Z                
TNGT. AS WINDS TURN WNWLY WITH FROPA...DRIER AMS IS FCST TO                     
ADVECT IN AND SCOUR OUT LWR CLOUD DECK.  MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE                 
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH DURG 08-11Z TIME...WITH                
MAV OUTPUT ADVERTIZING MOST RSNBLE SCENARIO AS FAR AS CIGS ARE                  
CONCERNED.                                                                      
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE                                                                      
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
700 PM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECASTS...KFWA CURRENTLY UP TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD            
SEE TREND TOWARD IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBY TO FILL BACK IN LATER TONIGHT               
WITH SATURATED GROUND-950 MB LAYER PERSISTING AND WITH WIDESPREAD               
RA/DZ MUCH OF TODAY. 21Z RUC SOUNDINGS WITH STRENGTHENING INVERSION             
THROUGH 09Z AND WHILE ETA XSECTIONS DRY LOW LEVELS OUT RAPIDLY                  
THURSDAY...HAVE ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT INDICATED THOUGH GIVEN INTIAL             
POOR CONDITIONS AND COL JUST TO OUR WEST THU AM SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT            
ANY RAPID MIX OUT.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...                                                         
THE WESTERN LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN BETWEEN A                
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY             
AND A FAST MOVING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER.                  
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT TRAPPING MOISTURE                
FROM TODAY'S RAIN NEAR THE SURFACE RESULTING IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND              
FOG.  A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE             
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA ON              
THURSDAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT.            
WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN ADVANCING NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH            
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MINOR CHANGES WERE                  
MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. RAISED LOW TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES              
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS AND WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS                
EXPECTED TOMORROW...RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS              
WELL...CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS.                                                
ALSO INTRODUCED POPS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER OUR FAR SOUTH                 
COUNTIES IN AGREEMENT WITH ETA GUIDANCE.  GFS WAS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN             
MOVING THE RAINFALL NORTH.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY                                   
GFS AND DGEX IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN AND TIMING SO COULD              
OPT TO A BLEND OF THE TWO. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE                   
ONGOING FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED...JUST TWEAKS. GENERAL            
THINKING IS LONG WAVE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT MID LEVELS OF THE             
ATMOSPHERE FROM HUDSON BAY TO NEVADA WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE                  
WEEKEND...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THE SW             
FLOW PATTERN THE REST OF THIS WORK-WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND            
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST WET AND MILD. ETA AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT              
FOR A FEW RUNS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEMS THAT WILL              
MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THUS LEFT HIGH             
POPS ONGOING IN THE FORECAST. TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY             
NIGHT WL CONTINUE TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN AFTER              
POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW              
NORMAL. GOOD SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD BRING PRECIP TO AN END               
OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION WILL BE            
NEAR LK MI WHERE GOOD TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS BETWEEN THE                     
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROBABLY INDUCE LAKE             
PRECIP AND DEFINITELY WL GENERATE SOME CLOUDS. FORECAST WIND                    
DIRECTION (280 DEGREES) LEADS TO UNFAVORABLE FETCH AND BAND                     
PLACEMENT...SO WL NOT MENTION PRECIP ATTM. BY WEDNESDAY THE FETCH IS            
MUCH BETTER (330 DEGREES) SO MENTIONED A LOW PROB OF PRECIP NEAR THE            
LAKE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1230 PM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DEPICTED ON IR                
SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS MOVED QUICKLY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN SLOWING              
DOWN PROGRESS OF UPPER TROF PROLONGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS            
NORTHERN INDIANA. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE AT SOUTH BEND            
WITH WITH IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS AT FORT WAYNE. CURRENT               
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. UPPER              
TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE TO                 
BUILD IN WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE             
MOISTURE TO BE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT IFR               
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT BOTH SOUTH BEND AND FORT WAYNE LATER                   
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS                
THIS MORNING. UPPER TROF MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. RUC MODEL            
HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND. SCATTERED PRECIP AND PATCHY FOG                    
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. TEMPERATURE FORECAST                    
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK AS MILD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM UP AHEAD OF            
THE TROF AND WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SHARP SECONDARY UPR TROF NOW INTO ERN WI AIDING SHRA DVLPMNT FM SW              
MI BACK W INTO NRN IL ALG TAIL END OF UPR WV AND IN AREA OF DECENT              
LOW/MID LVL THETA ADVTN. BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO SWING ACRS NRN HALF              
OF CWA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH EXPECTED AS FOR MEASURABLE.               
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRAPPED BNDRY LYR MSTR WILL KEEP STRATUS LOCKED            
IN AGAIN TDA AND TONIGHT W/SRLY FLW REMAINING IN PLACE AND EVER                 
INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT. TIGHT LL THETA GRADIENT IN PLACE              
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WARRANTS CONTD MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FOG MENTION BUT               
HAVE NARROWED THAT WINDOW A BIT BASED ON TIMING OF BEST ISENTROPIC              
LIFT NR 06Z. OTHERWISE...MILD BUT GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE TOO WARM AGAIN            
THIS AFTN BUT BTR OVERNIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE            
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS DRYING TAKES PLACE IN            
THE LOWER LAYERS (AT LEAST BRIEFLY). HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ON                    
THURSDAY TO SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS SEE NO REASON TO              
DEVIATE MUCH WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILE AND CLOUD            
COVERAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO            
THE SW PART OF THE AREA SOMETIME THURS NGT. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP             
APPEARS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW WITH SATURATED             
COLUMN LIKELY NOT OCCURRING TIL TOWARDS AM. WAS TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY            
POPS LATE THURS NGT...BUT WITH THIS CONCERN STILL THERE HAVE OPTED              
TO INCREASE TO 50 POPS IN SW AND EXTEND POPS TO NE OVERNIGHT TO                 
BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING SITES. BASED ON GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND               
SEVERAL FACTORS IN MODELS (STRONG LIFT, DEEP MOISTURE, CPD'S                    
DROPPING BELOW 10 MB, ETC) ALL POINTING TOWARDS NEED FOR CAT POPS ON            
FRIDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TREND SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY SW             
IN THE AM THEN CAT POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO BE             
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE             
A GOOD START FOR NOW. FRI NGT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS SHOW               
MUCH OF THE LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH SFC LOW JUST TO THE WEST               
HAVE A HARD TIME WITH NO PRECIP (ALTHOUGH BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR              
OF THE STORM IT COULD BE ARGUED WE COULD END UP DRIER). HAVE WENT               
WITH LOW LIKELY POPS AFTER COLLABORATION. BEYOND FRI NGT...HAVE MADE            
NO CHANGES AS MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWER               
PROGRESSION (SUNDAY OR BEYOND). REGARDLESS...RETURN TO MORE                     
FALL-LIKE/EARLY WINTER TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...GLL                                                                  
SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                            
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
UPDATE...GLL                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
925 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS                
THIS MORNING. UPPER TROF MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. RUC MODEL            
HAS PICKED UP ON THIS TREND. SCATTERED PRECIP AND PATCHY FOG                    
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.              
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. TEMPERATURE FORECAST                    
CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK AS MILD AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM UP AHEAD OF            
THE TROF AND WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
LEADING EDGE OF UPR TROF NOW INTO WRN MI ATTM W/AREAL COVERAGE OF               
SHRA ON THE WANE ALG TAIL END OF UPR VORT AXIS. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF              
ANY MEASURABLE WILL FALL N OF RTE 30 AND WILL CUT AM POPS AND TIMING            
BACK FURTHER. LACK OF SIG RAINFALL SHLD PRECLUDE MUCH FOR SIG FOG               
AND WILL DOWNPLAY IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING LG                
SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND SYS HAS DUMPED CIGS UPSTREAM OVR IL/WI            
AND DOWNWARD SPIRAL ALREADY IN PROGRESS AT SBN. XPC IFR/LIFR AT SBN             
REMAINDER OF TDA AND GIVEN EARLY 09Z RUC INDICATIONS LTL IMPROVEMENT            
THIS AFTN. FWA CURRENT MVFR WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LIFR AT                
TIMES BY MID MORNING AS UPR TROF AXIS AND ASSOCD/SUBSIDENCE PLUME               
SHARPEN AS WV CONTS TO TRANSLATE EWD ACRS MI THIS AM.                           
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
SHARP SECONDARY UPR TROF NOW INTO ERN WI AIDING SHRA DVLPMNT FM SW              
MI BACK W INTO NRN IL ALG TAIL END OF UPR WV AND IN AREA OF DECENT              
LOW/MID LVL THETA ADVTN. BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO SWING ACRS NRN HALF              
OF CWA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH EXPECTED AS FOR MEASURABLE.               
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRAPPED BNDRY LYR MSTR WILL KEEP STRATUS LOCKED            
IN AGAIN TDA AND TONIGHT W/SRLY FLW REMAINING IN PLACE AND EVER                 
INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT. TIGHT LL THETA GRADIENT IN PLACE              
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WARRANTS CONTD MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FOG MENTION BUT               
HAVE NARROWED THAT WINDOW A BIT BASED ON TIMING OF BEST ISENTROPIC              
LIFT NR 06Z. OTHERWISE...MILD BUT GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE TOO WARM AGAIN            
THIS AFTN BUT BTR OVERNIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE            
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS DRYING TAKES PLACE IN            
THE LOWER LAYERS (AT LEAST BRIEFLY). HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ON                    
THURSDAY TO SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS SEE NO REASON TO              
DEVIATE MUCH WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILE AND CLOUD            
COVERAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO            
THE SW PART OF THE AREA SOMETIME THURS NGT. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP             
APPEARS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW WITH SATURATED             
COLUMN LIKELY NOT OCCURRING TIL TOWARDS AM. WAS TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY            
POPS LATE THURS NGT...BUT WITH THIS CONCERN STILL THERE HAVE OPTED              
TO INCREASE TO 50 POPS IN SW AND EXTEND POPS TO NE OVERNIGHT TO                 
BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING SITES. BASED ON GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND               
SEVERAL FACTORS IN MODELS (STRONG LIFT, DEEP MOISTURE, CPD'S                    
DROPPING BELOW 10 MB, ETC) ALL POINTING TOWARDS NEED FOR CAT POPS ON            
FRIDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TREND SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY SW             
IN THE AM THEN CAT POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO BE             
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE             
A GOOD START FOR NOW. FRI NGT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS SHOW               
MUCH OF THE LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH SFC LOW JUST TO THE WEST               
HAVE A HARD TIME WITH NO PRECIP (ALTHOUGH BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR              
OF THE STORM IT COULD BE ARGUED WE COULD END UP DRIER). HAVE WENT               
WITH LOW LIKELY POPS AFTER COLLABORATION. BEYOND FRI NGT...HAVE MADE            
NO CHANGES AS MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWER               
PROGRESSION (SUNDAY OR BEYOND). REGARDLESS...RETURN TO MORE                     
FALL-LIKE/EARLY WINTER TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
UPDATE...GLL                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
515 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.AVIATION/UPDATE...                                                             
LEADING EDGE OF UPR TROF NOW INTO WRN MI ATTM W/AREAL COVERAGE OF               
SHRA ON THE WANE ALG TAIL END OF UPR VORT AXIS. LOOKS LIKE BULK OF              
ANY MEASURABLE WILL FALL N OF RTE 30 AND WILL CUT AM POPS AND TIMING            
BACK FURTHER. LACK OF SIG RAINFALL SHLD PRECLUDE MUCH FOR SIG FOG               
AND WILL DOWNPLAY IN 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING LG                
SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND SYS HAS DUMPED CIGS UPSTREAM OVR IL/WI            
AND DOWNWARD SPIRAL ALREADY IN PROGRESS AT SBN. XPC IFR/LIFR AT SBN             
REMAINDER OF TDA AND GIVEN EARLY 09Z RUC INDICATIONS LTL IMPROVEMENT            
THIS AFTN. FWA CURRENT MVFR WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR AND LIFR AT                
TIMES BY MID MORNING AS UPR TROF AXIS AND ASSOCD/SUBSIDENCE PLUME               
SHARPEN AS WV CONTS TO TRANSLATE EWD ACRS MI THIS AM.                           
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHARP SECONDARY UPR TROF NOW INTO ERN WI AIDING SHRA DVLPMNT FM SW              
MI BACK W INTO NRN IL ALG TAIL END OF UPR WV AND IN AREA OF DECENT              
LOW/MID LVL THETA ADVTN. BULK OF THIS LOOKS TO SWING ACRS NRN HALF              
OF CWA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH EXPECTED AS FOR MEASURABLE.               
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND TRAPPED BNDRY LYR MSTR WILL KEEP STRATUS LOCKED            
IN AGAIN TDA AND TONIGHT W/SRLY FLW REMAINING IN PLACE AND EVER                 
INCREASING THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT. TIGHT LL THETA GRADIENT IN PLACE              
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WARRANTS CONTD MENTION OF DRIZZLE/FOG MENTION BUT               
HAVE NARROWED THAT WINDOW A BIT BASED ON TIMING OF BEST ISENTROPIC              
LIFT NR 06Z. OTHERWISE...MILD BUT GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE TOO WARM AGAIN            
THIS AFTN BUT BTR OVERNIGHT.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS OVER THE            
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS DRYING TAKES PLACE IN            
THE LOWER LAYERS (AT LEAST BRIEFLY). HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ON                    
THURSDAY TO SIMILAR READINGS EXPECTED FOR WEDS AS SEE NO REASON TO              
DEVIATE MUCH WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THERMAL PROFILE AND CLOUD            
COVERAGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT ON PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO            
THE SW PART OF THE AREA SOMETIME THURS NGT. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP             
APPEARS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW WITH SATURATED             
COLUMN LIKELY NOT OCCURRING TIL TOWARDS AM. WAS TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY            
POPS LATE THURS NGT...BUT WITH THIS CONCERN STILL THERE HAVE OPTED              
TO INCREASE TO 50 POPS IN SW AND EXTEND POPS TO NE OVERNIGHT TO                 
BETTER MESH WITH SURROUNDING SITES. BASED ON GUIDANCE NUMBERS AND               
SEVERAL FACTORS IN MODELS (STRONG LIFT, DEEP MOISTURE, CPD'S                    
DROPPING BELOW 10 MB, ETC) ALL POINTING TOWARDS NEED FOR CAT POPS ON            
FRIDAY. HAVE TRIED TO TREND SOMEWHAT WITH HIGHEST POPS INITIALLY SW             
IN THE AM THEN CAT POPS ALL AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO BE             
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE             
A GOOD START FOR NOW. FRI NGT WILL BE A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS SHOW               
MUCH OF THE LIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT WITH SFC LOW JUST TO THE WEST               
HAVE A HARD TIME WITH NO PRECIP (ALTHOUGH BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR              
OF THE STORM IT COULD BE ARGUED WE COULD END UP DRIER). HAVE WENT               
WITH LOW LIKELY POPS AFTER COLLABORATION. BEYOND FRI NGT...HAVE MADE            
NO CHANGES AS MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWER               
PROGRESSION (SUNDAY OR BEYOND). REGARDLESS...RETURN TO MORE                     
FALL-LIKE/EARLY WINTER TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE OFFING.                          
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
1049 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004                                                     
LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SUN PEAKING OUT ACROSS             
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY            
WITH SOME PERIODIC CIRRUS SHIELDS MOVING OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, I                 
WOULD EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS HARPER AND KINGMAN              
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.            
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET PIVOTING THROUGH             
NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS COLD POCKET WILL CAUSE THE THETA SURFACES TO               
RISE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL INDUCE LIFT. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING              
THINGS NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH WEAK SYMMETRIC STABILITY. AS A               
RESULT, WE COULD SEE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS.                                     
COX                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------            
413 AM CST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
TODAY-TONIGHT:                                                                  
BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME              
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...APPEARS THAT SOUTHWESTERN US UPPER LOW IS                  
FINALLY ON THE MOVE.  POSITIVE TILT WAVE WILL SPREAD INCREASING                 
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND INCREASING              
THIS EVENING.  PROBLEM AGAIN IS CATEGORICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS             
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION, GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LIGHT                  
PRECIPITATION EVENT. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST KS             
SO TAPERED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST.                        
THU:                                                                            
SECOND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL APPROACH AREA THU NIGHT, WITH ENTIRE                  
FORECAST AREA IN LEFT EXIT REGION. ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL                    
MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY FRI. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS WHERE                
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR, WITH GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL               
KEEPING 700 MILLIBAR CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH, RESULTING BACKED                
FLOW. HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD KEEP MINIMUMS ON THE              
MILD SIDE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT, WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS DOWN               
WESTERN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA.                                                  
FRI-FRI NIGHT:                                                                  
DRIER 700 MILLIBAR AIR SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY                
FRI...MAINLY IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST SECTIONS.                                    
SAT-SUN:                                                                        
NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF REDEVELOPING WESTERN US TROUGH.                   
INCREASING CYCLOGENESIS WILL INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL WARM AIR               
ADVECTION BY 00 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME SUN. FOCUS ON RAIN/SNOW              
LINE BECOMES AN ISSUE, WITH TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MIX POSSIBLE             
IN CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAY, SPREADING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA SAT NIGHT.  HOWEVER APPEARS BOTH EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM                
RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHUT DOWN            
PRECIPITATION RATHER QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING.   THIS COULD BE                    
PROBLEMATIC EAST OF ICT FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE.                                 
SUN NIGHT-TUE:                                                                  
REPRIEVE ON SUN IS BRIEF. TRENDING TOWARD COMPROMISE WITH EUROPEAN              
CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL FASTER THAN THE                 
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. THE MAIN IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE            
FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL ORIENTATION OF LONGWAVE IS             
PRECIPITATION TIMING. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST MOSTLY SOLID PRECIPITATION            
DEVELOPING EITHER SUN NIGHT OR MON.  THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM             
RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL STARTS A BIT DRIER IN THE LOW LEVELS,             
WHICH MAY DELAY PRECIPITATION ONSET UNTIL CLOSER TO 06 COORDINATED              
UNIVERSAL TIME MON.  EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER                   
FORECASTS MODEL WITH A FASTER/NORTHERLY TRACK IMPLIES MUCH BETTER               
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, COMPARED TO SLOWER/SOUTHERLY TRACK OF                  
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL.  AT THIS POINT WILL NEED TO INTRO AT              
LEAST SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MON AND MON NIGHT.  GIVEN                  
DIFFICULTY OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION TYPE, WILL GO PRIMARILY WITH            
RAIN OR SNOW COMBINATION FOR NOW.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPERATURES/PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...                 
WICHITA-KICT    65  57  59  47 /  50  80  80  60                                
HUTCHINSON      64  57  58  44 /  60  80  80  70                                
NEWTON          65  57  59  47 /  50  80  80  70                                
ELDORADO        66  58  60  48 /  40  70  80  60                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  58  61  49 /  50  70  80  50                                
RUSSELL         62  52  52  40 /  60  90  80  70                                
GREAT BEND      62  53  53  40 /  70  80  80  70                                
SALINA          65  56  56  45 /  40  80  80  70                                
MCPHERSON       65  56  57  45 /  50  80  80  70                                
COFFEYVILLE     69  58  64  52 /  20  70  70  60                                
CHANUTE         68  58  63  51 /  20  70  80  60                                
IOLA            68  58  62  51 /  20  60  80  60                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
17/HOWERTON                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC                             
924 PM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCT -SHRAS W OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH -RA BEING               
REPORTED AT CUMBERLAND AND PETERSBURG WV. NEW ETA COMING IN AND                 
SUGGESTS AREA OF RAIN WILL STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER               
WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SOUTH OF FAUQUIER CTY TO CHO. INCREASED               
POPS IN THE WEST AND THE SHEN VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS BASED ON RADAR               
TRENDS AND NEW MODEL GUIDANCE. SCT -SHRAS FCST TO EXIT THE FCST AREA            
AROUND 09Z PER 00Z ETA/RUC GUIDANCE.                                            
ROSA                                                                            
PREVIOUS AFD...                                                                 
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY):                                         
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EAST                   
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A               
SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS ROTATING AROUND             
THE RIDGE....WHILE THE PRIMARY WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS                  
BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. ACARS 400-250MB WIND            
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A 70-80KT NORTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS THE WEST                 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM WAVE. 12Z               
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1029MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE APPALACHIANS.             
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHILE            
WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF A STALLING              
BOUNDARY.                                                                       
EROSION OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS UNEXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AS                   
MORNING RAOBS AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRONG SUBSISTENT                    
INVERSION AT 8KFT. THE CLOUD LAYER WAS QUITE THIN...AND PERHAPS                 
TURBULENT DIURNAL AND EDDY MIXING TRANSPORTED ENOUGH DRY AIR UPWARD             
TO MIX OUT THIS CLOUD LAYER.                                                    
LOCAL ACARS SOUNDINGS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THIS             
SUBSISTENT INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 6KFT. WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING             
THIS EVENING...ANTICIPATE A GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE            
TRAPPED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL...AND HENCE INCREASING CLOUDS. BOTH              
12Z GFS/ETA BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS INVERSION CONTINUES             
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH THE             
DYNAMICS OF THIS WAVE (MUCH WEAKER UPPER LEVEL JET THAN THE LAST).              
HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD               
COMPENSATE...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER                  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF                     
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A WARMER NIGHT THAN            
LAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.                                                  
THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE                         
TONIGHT...LEAVING THE REGION WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING AND SUBSIDENCE             
ALOFT THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ACT TO TRAP RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
AS A STRATUS LAYER. UPSLOPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIMITED LIGHT                 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING...BEFORE                
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT LIMITS THE DEPTH OF SATURATION DURING THE                      
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODELS DEPICTING WARMING IN THE LOWER LEVELS                 
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST TOMORROW...HAVE TRENDED COOLER               
THAN MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS DUE ANTICIPATED TRAPPED STRATUS             
CLOUD LAYER. LIGHT WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED.                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION: WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION AND MOISTENING FROM AN                   
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP THIS               
EVENING. AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER...ANTICIPATE A LOWER               
STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS BECOME CALM. LEFT               
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF TERMINALS AS COVERAGE AND TIMING                
QUESTIONS REMAIN...WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.                     
THEREFORE...ONLY ANTICIPATE MVFR VISIBILITIES WITHIN SHOWERS TO                 
MATCH MVFR CEILINGS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
BASIC RDG PTTN MAINTAINED THU NGT. WK SFC CDFNT SAGS INTO CWFA...W/O            
DYNAMICS OR MSTR. WAA...AND ASSOC PCPN...EVIDENT TO THE W...ALONG               
THIS SAME BNDRY. DONT THINK MSTR WL BE THICK ENUF TO MAKE IT OVR                
APLCHNS THO. SINCE NO OTR FORCING MECH WL BE PRESENT...WL GO LWR                
THAN MOS FOR POPS.  WL KEEP SCHC FOR WRN CNTYS...WHERE SUPPORT WL BE            
THE BEST.                                                                       
WAA BEGINS IN EARNEST FRI...TIL WM FROPA SAT. W/ UPR FLOW FM                    
GLFMEX...MSTR SUPPLY SHUD BE AMPLE. ONLY QSTN WUD BE DURATION. DO               
NOT ANTICIPATE A RAINOUT...BUT UPGLIDE GUD ENUF FOR LOTSA CLDS AND              
CHC POPS THRUOUT. ALSO MADE MOSTLY SMALL CHGS TO TEMP FCST IN THIS              
PD...MOSTLY UPWD GIVEN LACK OF ANY COLD AIR. SAT MRNG MIN-T REFLECTS            
THE MOST DRASTIC ADJUSTMENT DUE TO CLDS AND WAA. IF WMFNT ENDS UP               
BEING SLOWER OR PCPN MORE WIDESPREAD...THESE TEMPS CUD BE A PINCH               
TOO HIGH. ALL TEMPS WL BE ABV CLIMO AVGS.                                       
BAROCLINIC ZN SHUD KICK N BY SUN...IN TIME FOR CDFNT APPCHG FM THE              
W. UPR FLOW SOMEWHAT FLAT BY THEN. JETMAX WL BE ACRS CNTRL CONUS...             
IN STEEPENING POS TILT TROF. EFFECT ON E COAST WL BE LACK OF A                  
KICKER TO CLEAR FRONT OUT. WL KEEP POPS GOING THRU SUN. HWVR...                 
THRAFTR CDFNT SHUD SAG FAR ENUF TO THE S TO ALLW FOR SOME DRIER                 
AIR...IN THE FORM OF A SFC HIGH...TO WORK EWD. GRIDS WL REFLECT A               
DRYING TREND MON...AND DRY CONDS TUE-WED. WL KEEP ANY POTL LOPRES               
DVLPMNT ALNG STALLED FNT TO OUR S W/ THIS PKG GIVEN RNG OF                      
UNCERTAINTY.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
DC...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
WV...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM/AVIATION FORECASTER: ROGOWSKI                                        
LONG TERM FORECASTER: HTS                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   md                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1130 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER MICHIGAN SHOWING UP VERY NICELY ON THE WATER              
VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE REVEALING SOME CONVECTIVE                 
CLOUD TOPS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AT 11AM. THIS HAS              
LED TO SOME POCKETS OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE DETROIT METRO                
AREA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH NO LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED            
THUS FAR. THIS IS ALL MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY OUT OF THE REGION AS THE            
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN WEATHER THIS            
AFTERNOON WILL BE LOW CEILINGS AND LOW VISIBILITIES. LARGE AREA OF              
200 TO 700 FEET STRATUS HAS SET UP IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE. THIS               
WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE REGION             
OF WAVE SETS UP OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT            
850 MBS IS STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND TRAPPING STRATUS BENEATH IT.             
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON 12Z DTX SOUNDING...ALONG WITH WARM            
AIR ADVECTION...IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN THE 1              
TO 3 MILE RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE WILL                 
BUILD IN FORCING CONVECTION OFF TO OUR EAST...THUS BRINGING AN END              
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BY NOON...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE TAKING OVER            
FOR THE AFTERNOON. THUS WILL WAIT UNTIL AROUND NOON TO RESEND THE               
ZONES IN ORDER TO FRESHEN UP WORDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.              
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE TEMPS AS IS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST WE MAY              
BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE FORECAST MAXES OF 57. WILL TAKE                 
ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS BEFORE SENDING OUT UPDATED ZONES TO DETERMINE              
IF MAX TEMP ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE.                                        
$$                                                                              
SHULER                                                                          
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 300 AM THIS MORNING...                           
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH POTENT SHORT             
WAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN (06Z) WITH STRONG DPVA AND EXCELLENT                      
DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE PER UPSTREAM PROFILERS.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED            
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME                   
THUNDER THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE, EXTENSIVE AREA OF DRIZZLE AND FOG             
WILL PROGRESS TOWARD SHOWERS AND INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS                
MORNING AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. MEANWHILE, OUR PREVIOUSLY CLOSED                
UPPER LOW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS FINALLY OPENED UP AND BECOME               
MORE NEGATIVE TILTED WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM THE              
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  THIS WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER               
PLAYER INTO FRIDAY.  AT THE SURFACE, ILL-DEFINED HIGH OVER THE EAST             
COAST AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN MINNESOTA            
HAS RESULTED IN OUR WARM ADVECTION REGIME WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS               
WELL INTO THE 50S (EVEN SOME 60S JUST SOUTH OF I-80 IN IOWA).  UNTIL            
WE ARE ABLE TO MOVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION, WE WILL CONTINUE             
MOIST AND WARM.                                                                 
TODAY...                                                                        
06Z RUC BRINGS THIS STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH               
MAIN DPVA AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE LIFT DURING THIS MORNING.  AS                
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, SOME CONCERN WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE            
AS VERTICAL TOTALS CLIMB INTO THE 23C RANGE AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW             
A LAYER OF NEGATIVE EPV BETWEEN 700-500MB WHERE THE STRONGEST                   
LIFT/OMEGA WILL OCCUR NEAR 15Z. WITH NO INDICATIONS OF LIGHTNING                
STRIKES UPSTREAM THUS FAR, WE WILL KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW.  THIS WILL              
BE A FAST MOVING EVENT WITH REGION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS             
WAVE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STILL AMPLE MOISTURE TO BE HAD AS SYSTEM            
HAD TIME TO TAP INTO PRECIP WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1"(300% OF NORMAL)              
AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE            
THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN UNIFORM ACROSS THE            
REGION (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 24 HOURS) WITH TRAJECTORIES               
POINTING TOWARD HIGHS AROUND 57F.                                               
TONIGHT...                                                                      
A UNIQUE CHALLENGE WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR                
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A REGION OF FGEN ACROSS CHICAGO            
THEN TRACKS THIS PRECIP EAST OVERNIGHT.  THE ETA ALSO SUGGESTS THIS             
BUT FURTHER SOUTH.  WE WOULD HAVE TO FAVOR THE ETA WITH THIS                    
ONE...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.  THE REASON IS WITH SUCH A STRONG                   
DEPARTING WAVE, REGION OF SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES WOULD SUPPRESS            
PRECIP BAND SOUTH AND THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE 850-700 LAYER DOES NOT            
APPEAR THAT GREAT TO SUPPORT THE GFS IDEA.  HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS DO               
HAVE A VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT                     
APPROACHES (MORE LIKE A COOL FRONT), ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER                      
CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR IN THE PROFILES FOR MORE DRIZZLE AND FOG                  
TONIGHT.  WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM STILL IN THE 50S, WOULD EXPECT LOW            
TEMPS TONIGHT TO REMAIN INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.                       
THURSDAY...                                                                     
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST/SOUTHEAST             
OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE, SOUTHERN WAVE BEGINS             
TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE              
IN THE DAY.  WHILE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT (900-600MBS)            
PER THE GFS/ETA SOUNDINGS, WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF HIGHER LEVEL                  
MOISTURE ABOVE TO KEEP WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES             
WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT WITH NEW MACHINE NUMBERS CLIMBING INTO THE              
60S.  WE WOULD PREFER TO KEEP IT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH A BIT LOWER             
1000-850MB THICKNESS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.                                 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...                                                   
MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS UPPER WAVE FURTHER NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH            
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE                 
THETA-E GRADIENT FURTHER UPSTREAM WITH IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT             
ON FRIDAY.  WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT,             
WE WILL REMOVE THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND KEEP ANY RAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE             
LINE.  THIS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY BUT AS IS USUALLY THE                 
CASE, NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOWER LAYERS DRY BELOW                  
800MBS.  IT MIGHT TAKE A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO               
NORTH BEFORE WE SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP.  THEN WITH PRECIPITABLE                  
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1", NEEDLESS TO SAY IT WILL RAIN.  TEMPERATURES             
WILL NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT WITH WET BULBING BRINGS HIGHS AROUND 50F.             
FRIDAY NIGHT...                                                                 
THE BULK OF THE LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH EARLY IN THE                  
EVENING BUT WITH PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE                 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO OBSERVE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN.  WITH ANOTHER                 
SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTH OVERNIGHT, MORE ADVECTION             
TYPE FOG SHOULD BE THE RESULT.                                                  
NOW ONTO THE EXTENDED AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE FAVORING A LESS                
THAN AGGRESSIVE COLD BLAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS              
MORE NARROW AS YET ANOTHER STRONG JET COMES OFF CHINA AND PINCHES               
THE RIDGE.  THIS WILL SET UP AN ELONGATED POSITIVE TILTED TROF INTO             
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER INFLUX OF                    
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.                               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
1002 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
AT 1500 UTC...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE VIRGINIAS WILL DOMINATE                
THE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF                
CLOUDINESS. SEVERAL WEAK H500 IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ZIP ALONG THE ERN            
FLANK OF THE H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO              
VALLEY. THESE WEAK SHORT WAVES ARE CAPTURED WELL BY THE 40-KM RUC.              
UPPED THE CLOUDINESS BASED UPON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE OVER              
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE 1200 UTC KALY SOUNDING...WHERE                 
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION AT AROUND 775 HPA                  
(6KF-8KFT).  ALSO...I LOWERED TEMPS BY 2-4 DEGREES OVER THE ENTIRE              
FCST AREA DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE SOUTHEASTERN                    
CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE PRIOR TO                
NOON...SO WILL PHRASE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE THIS AFTERNOON.                    
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 345 AM...                                
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
CURRENTLY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN            
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THEIR WAY                    
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND              
WEAKER ONE WILL EFFECT CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING               
WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. TREND WILL BE FOR                 
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM.            
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...                               
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND                   
VARIABLE WINDS. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LITTLE MIXING HIGH                 
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TUESDAYS. SHORTWAVE MOVES             
INTO FAR WESTERN NY AND WESTERN PA BY 6Z THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY                
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF               
RIDGE WILL DEFLECT THIS WEAK SYSTEM TO SOUTH AND WEST. HOWEVER WAA              
BRINGING WARMER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. KEEPING             
POPS LIMITED TO CHANCE SHOWERS AFTER 12Z WITH BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS            
THURSDAY EVENING. GFS THICKNESS FOR ALL LOWER LEVELS UP TO 500MB TOO            
WARM FOR SNOW...SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT                
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.                         
&&                                                                              
.EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. FRIDAY            
STAYING PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY                 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING PRECIP              
MOVING IN EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ETA80 SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF               
PRECIP AS EARLY AS 18Z SATURDAY...WITH GFS SLOWER TO MOVE PRECIP IN.            
WILL PUT OUT CHANCE SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY                 
EVENING. BASED ON THICKNESS ANALYSIS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DROPPED                
SNOW IN FORECAST. TREND FOR SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK             
IS FOR CHANCE RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER             
BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES. VERY LIGHT QPF WITH            
SHOWER THREAT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  PRECIP OVER WEEKEND NOT             
ESPECIALLY GREAT SO NO FLOOD PROBLEMS FOR THE NEXT WEEK ANTICIPATED             
AT THIS TIME.                                                                   
.AVIATION...A LOT OF UPSTREAM STRATOCU WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA                  
TODAY. LESS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTION CWA.  CEILINGS GENERALLY            
VFR WITH BASES 040-060...LCL MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH                
PORTION. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...WASULA                                                    
PREVIOUS AFD...FISHER/KDL                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
900 PM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SATELLITE PICS AND RUC RH FIELDS AGREE ON KEEPING CLOUDS OUT OF THE             
AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO CHANGE WORDING TO MOSTLY CLEAR.            
WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ALSO BUMP DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY             
ACROSS THE BOARD.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON THROUGH THURSDAY. MID LEVEL              
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...ALLOWING A POSSIBLE MID CLOUD CEILING BY                   
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE                
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT THE FLO TERMINAL AROUND                      
SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IF THE AREA REMAINS CLOUD FREE.                            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
VERY POTENT 5H S/W TROF TO DIVE SE...TO A POSITION AROUND HAT BY 12Z            
THU. NO BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND (UN)FORTUNATELY AND LATE FALL SEASON             
WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. UPPER AND SFC RIDGING TO                   
PREDOMINATE OVERNITE. LIGHT N TO NE WIND 10 KT OR LESS TO PREVAIL               
WITH CONTINUED 2-3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL. WILL KEEP A 2 TO 3 FT SWELL            
THRU THU WITH WW3 AT TIMES DIMINISHING LONG PERIOD SWELLS TOO                   
QUICKLY. WILL STAY CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH SEAS WEST OF FRYING             
PAN SHOALS DUE TO THE E TO NE SWELL DIRECTION BEING ABSORBED.                   
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...KEEBLER                                                   
AVIATION (UPDATE)...DOUGLASCARLHOEHLER                                          
MARINE (UPDATE)...LOWENTHAL                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
943 AM EST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
BROUGHT TEMPS UP CWA-WIDE BUT ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO..CLOSER TO                
BUT STILL BELOW MAV...AGAIN BY A DEGREE OR TWO. SKY COVER WILL BE               
UPDATED TO MOSTLY SUNNY BASED UPON VISIBLE SAT.                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AT 12Z, BUT THE                    
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO TEMPO MVFR AROUND                  
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT FLO AND CRE. HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE                   
THROUGH 18/12Z WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND FEW TO                   
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 8K AND SCATTERED CIRRUS. MVFR VISIBILITIES              
POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 18/10Z, ESPECIALLY AT CRE AND FLO.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING A 10 KT                 
NORTHERLY WIND IS SEEN OVER THE WATERS WITH ONLY 3 FT SEAS IN A EAST            
SWELL. RUC SHOWING WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH THE DAY. SO NO MAJOR            
CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR MORNING FORECAST.                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                          
A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CLOUD-COVER FROM A H500             
SHORTWAVE PLAYED HAVOC WITH GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUES                    
TUESDAY. DO EXPECT MORE DIRECT INSOLATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH WILL                 
STILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE VALUES SLIGHTLY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION                   
CLOUDS MAY ENTER THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.           
THREE FEATURES TO PROVIDE INCREASED CLOUD-COVER FOR THURSDAY...                 
ANOTHER H500 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE...                     
ALONG WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING TROUGH THE            
MIDWEST. THERMAL PROFILES AND GUIDANCE VALUES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A            
WARMING TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY                      
CONSIDERING IT MAY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.                                      
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                     
500MB TROUGH DIGS IN THE WESTERN US AS FLOW OVER SE BECOMES                     
SOUTHWESTERLY. COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA              
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL NOT TRY TO PINPOINT TIMING AND                         
INTENSITY OF NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT...THEREFOR WILL             
MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE DURATION.                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...MBB                                                                
AVIATION...MRR                                                                  
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
830 PM CST WED NOV 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE THIS EVENING WILL BE WHAT TO DO WITH               
THE FOG. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ALONG AND EAST OF THE                   
VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS MID              
TO UPPER 30S) HAS KEPT FOG LINGERING. VISIBILITY EAST OF THE VALLEY             
HAS DROPPED TO 1/4SM AT MULTIPLE SITES. DO NOT SEE ANYTHING WHICH               
WILL IMPROVE VISIBILITY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG              
ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA                  
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOLLOWING 00Z RUC...PRESSURE                   
GRADIENT INCREASES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING WESTERLY AND             
INCREASING SOME. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR MASS FORECASTED TO ADVECT              
INTO REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY UP ALONG THE VALLEY...AND              
IMPROVE VISIBILITY TOWARD MORNING EAST OF THE VALLEY. CURRENT                   
FORECASTED TEMPERATURES LOOK FINE. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT TO BE ISSUED              
BY 845PM.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND            
     WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
335 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 14Z (9AM).           
MONITORING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO            
DENSE FOG.  ENHANCED 3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS BEHIND THIS STRIP OF                 
STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE TRI-CITIES TO METRO DETROIT THE                      
VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO 1/4MI AND VISBILITIES RISING WITH                  
UPSTREAM AREA OF MORE STRATUS.  SURFACE COOL FRONT LINED UP FROM                
NEAR THE STRAIGHTS TO JUST EAST OF THE DOOR PENINSULA AND THEN                  
DRAPING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR OF            
IOWA.  THIS FRONT IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN OPERATIONAL NCEP               
RUNS WOULD SUGGEST WITH THE NEW RUC MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY.  THIS            
WILL PROLONG THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE AND THE CHANCE FOR A LITTLE             
OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  UPSTREAM RADAR                     
COMPOSITES SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN                     
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN.  HOWEVER PRECIP             
IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE GROUND ON THE EASTERN EDGE AS               
00Z RAOB FROM GRB SHOWS QUITE BIT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-650MBS.                
UPSTREAM VIS/CLOUD OBSERVATIONS REVEAL CLOUD DECKS NEAR 9000 FEET               
WITH JUST SOME REPORTING STATIONS SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN.  TRENDS              
IN THE RECENT RUC SUGGEST THIS IS ALONG A 850-700MB THETA-E GRADIENT            
THAT MOVES SOUTH OF M59 THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE, WE WILL ADD IN THE            
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN FOUR COUNTIES.                      
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING IS QUITE ACTIVE WITH 5 DISTINCT SHORT             
WAVES (DEPARTING WAVE NOW MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OUR LONG             
LIVED WAVE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA, NEXT                
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING EAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TOWARD JAMES BAY, AND             
THE LAST ONE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS CORRESPONDS            
TO A RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED UPPER JET FLOW ACROSS NOAM AS JET                  
STREAK FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN.  OUR MAIN PLAYER IS                 
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WILL IMPACT OUR REGION IN THE            
FORM OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.                                                         
UPSTREAM COOL FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT                
DROP BACK TO THE MIDDLE 40S WITH MIDDLE 30S FURTHER BACK INTO                   
WISCONSIN.  BUT WILL WE OBSERVE THESE LOWER VALUES ACROSS OUR STATE             
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE RACING EAST ACROSS                 
CANADA WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE BETTER                  
HANDLED IN THE ETA THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS HEIGHT RISES ACROSS              
LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE             
SURFACE HIGH.  WITH THAT SAID, OUR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD BECOMES               
NEARLY ZONAL WHICH MIGHT STALL THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE             
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND            
WITH COMBINATION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE LIFTING NORTH, WE MIGHT                
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS THOSE SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES.  FOR NOW, WE WILL ONLY HAVE MENTION DURING THE MORNING AS             
DAY CREW WILL MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEED            
BE.  TEMPS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LOCATION OF              
THIS FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE WE WILL OBSERVE 60F.  WE WILL BANK                
ON NEAR 60 SOUTH 1/2 AND UPPER 50S NORTH 1/2.                                   
CROSS SECTIONS OVERNIGHT SHOW AN INCREASING EAST WIND AS SURFACE                
HIGH FROM THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH PLENTY OF            
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND FILTERING SOUTH.  MEANWHILE, OUR                 
SOUTHERN SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASING IN                  
FORWARD SPEED.  PLENTY OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES IN              
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE (500MB AND UP) WITH LOWER CLOUD               
DECK FILTERING IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IN THE               
850-700 LAYER INCREASES TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST               
WHICH WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION             
BUT INCREASE THE THETA-E GRADIENT UPSTREAM AND FGEN FIELDS.  BY                 
FRIDAY MORNING (JUST BEFORE SUNRISE)...WOULD EXPECT RAIN CHANCES                
INCREASING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF            
RAIN THERE.  FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND WITH SOME OF                
THIS DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP TEMPS BACK              
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S...PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS            
OF BAY-MIDLAND COUNTIES IF DRIER AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH.                            
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE DRIER LOWER               
LEVELS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING TOWARD 1" (WHICH IS                
OVER 200% OF NORMAL)...RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH                     
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.  IT MAY TAKE ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN                
1/3RD OF THE CWA AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE HIGH CHANCE THERE.                   
WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM (1010MB) WILL                 
TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH OCCLUDED FRONT HEADING NORTH                
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  IMPRESSIVE DEEP THETA-E RIDGE                   
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG AND                   
TEMPERATURES EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.                  
STILL RETAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT MODEL MOISTURE              
FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS (IE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP              
IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES)...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.                  
WE ARE STILL ON TAP FOR A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH RAIN              
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC             
AND LAKE CONTRIBUTION INFLUENCES.  BUT WOULD EXPECT ALL OF THE                  
REGION TO SEE SOME SNOW FALLING THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN                        
EFFECT...UNTIL 14Z...ENTIRE CWA.                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
253 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND FOG AND CLOUD COVER...THEN                   
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD CHANCES FOR PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.                
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO               
SHOW SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH SHORTWAVES QUICKLY MOVING             
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADA BORDER AND MORE                  
SLOWLY MOVING SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN               
US. THE GENERAL THEME AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR THE               
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO DIG A            
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US...HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER              
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE                 
WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY-SUNDAY. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY              
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH            
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION WITH THE SURFACE LOW              
OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL FAVOR THE ETA IN THE SHORTER                             
TERM...PARTICULARLY WITH THE HANDLING OF LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE TODAY              
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WILL THEN TREND TOWARD THE GFS WHICH IS A BIT             
FASTER IN MOVING THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EAST OF THE               
AREA LATE SATURDAY-SUNDAY. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW            
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN THE GFS BY SUNDAY...RESULTING FROM               
ITS CUTTING OFF OF ENERGY FARTHER WEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.                  
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH PESKY FOG AND LOW                
CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE MORNING. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON                   
IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE WESTERN AND             
CENTRAL CWFA...WITH SOME CIRRUS AND AC STREAMING INTO THE REGION.               
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG APPEAR TO BE BREAKING UP IN CONJUNCTION WITH             
DRIER SFC-850MB AIR WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE AREA PER THE 00Z ETA. A            
LOOK AT 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND PICKLE LAKE SHOWS            
WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT AT PICKLE LAKE AROUND 925MB...WITH             
LOWER DEWPOINTS AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RH VALUES. THE ETA                      
BRINGS THIS SUBTLE THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH             
WILL WORK TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG FROM WEST TO EAST. SINCE              
THIS TREND IS ALREADY STARTING TO OCCUR...HAVE REASONABLE CONFIDENCE            
IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE PRESENCE OF                     
AC/CIRRUS SHOULD KEEP AREAS WHICH LOSE THEIR LOW CLOUDS FROM                    
RADIATING AND FOGGING BACK IN...PARTICULARLY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS               
BEGINNING TO WORK IN. SO...WILL TRIM BACK THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY A              
BIT...AND WILL LIKELY ONLY MAINTAIN IT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND                   
EASTERN CWFA THROUGH PART OF THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...WILL ALLOW FOR            
GENERAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.                             
TONIGHT...THE ETA AND GFS BUILD THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE                    
CWFA...BUT ALSO MANAGE TO BRING A 925MB THERMAL TROUGH SOUTH INTO               
THE AREA ON NORTHEAST FLOW. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THIS COULD               
LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT                          
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA AND IN UPSLOPE AREAS.            
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT              
GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED                
THAT AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS COINCIDENT WITH THIS THERMAL TROUGH CAN              
CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA...SO WILL AT LEAST TREND               
TOWARD INCLUDING MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH. ANY LOW CLOUDS                
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BREAK UP DURING THE                         
DAY...PARTICULARLY BY AFTERNOON AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SETUP.                 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY             
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE              
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND LIKELY PASS                
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF FORCING            
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE PROVIDED BY WAA/ISENTROPIC                 
LIFT...WHICH IS SEEN NICELY ON THE 295-300K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. AS             
IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH WARM ADVECTION PCPN EVENTS...THE LATEST MODEL            
RUNS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO BRING THE PCPN INTO THE AREA...WHICH MAKES             
SENSE GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD BE IN PLACE. LATEST PROGS             
SUGGEST PCPN WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...GETTING INTO            
THE WISCONSIN BORDER COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING...THEN SPREADING                   
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL            
CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE               
BUMPED UP TO CATEGORICAL VALUES ONCE THE TIMING BECOMES MORE                    
CERTAIN. THE MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING DEPARTS                 
SATURDAY NIGHT AS COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.                
THERE MAY BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR A CHANGEOVER OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE              
PCPN FROM RAIN TO SNOW...BUT AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT THIS                    
POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW WILL BE WITH                          
INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD DEVELOP LATER ON               
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLDER 925-850MB TEMPERATURES MOVE               
INTO THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING FORECAST IN THIS REGARD SINCE            
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS.            
LATER SHIFTS CAN EVALUATE ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE PROGS AND            
MAKE MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IF NEEDED.               
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM              
EST (8 AM CST) MIZ006-007-013-014-085.                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1102 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                     
UPDATED FIRE WEATHER AND WWA SECTION FOR RED FLAG WARNING.                      
.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ENE ACROSS OK THIS MORNING.               
THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS IS NOW OVERHEAD LOCALLY AND EXTENDS NWD               
INTO LOWER MI. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE               
CWFA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. THE             
12Z KTLH SOUNDING SHOWS THAT VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE             
AREA WITH THE PW JUST 0.41 INCHES. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION                  
BELOW. NO PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PLANNED TODAY.                              
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ARE E AT 10-15 KT THIS                  
MORNING. SEAS AT THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 3-4 FT. THIS IS ALL                
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, SO NO CHANGES WILL BE NECESSARY.             
WINDS & SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTION THROUGH MON. WINDS            
WILL VEER TO A MORE SLY COMPONENT BY FRI NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD THEN             
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.                                    
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...YESTERDAY'S MIXED LAYER REMAINS EVIDENT ABOVE THE               
SURFACE INVERSION IN THIS MORNING'S KTLH SOUNDING. WE ARE CONCERNED             
THAT THE DEW POINT WILL ONCE AGAIN MIX OUT LOWER THAN INDICATED BY              
MOS, AS HAPPENED YESTERDAY. THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS RED FLAG CRITERIA            
DEVELOPING. A MITIGATING FACTOR IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS MORE             
OF AN ELY COMPONENT THAN YESTERDAY, AND MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE                    
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY BELOW 800 MB. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANOTHER 7               
HOUR EVENT, BUT 5 TO 6 HOUR DURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR               
INLAND FL ZONES. THEREFORE, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
200 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.                                        
HIT RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...AS QUITE A BIT OF DRY               
AIR MIXED OUT. TODAY LOOKING TO BE A MARGINAL EVENT OVER INLAND                 
LOCALES OF N FL...SO WILL GO WITH STATEMENT OF 1-3 HOURS POSSIBLE               
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TODAY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE                   
SURFACE WITH ONLY CIRRUS EXPECTED. WINDS A BIT MORE EAST AS SURFACE             
HIGH DRIFTS A BIT MORE EAST. WARMER TEMPS TO THE REACH THE LOWER &              
SOME MID 70S. TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY & MILDER WITH LIGHT SE FLOW BY            
MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FL PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING TO                   
AFTERNOON...MOST OTHERS SLIGHT TO NIL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE CHANCES OF              
RAIN REMAIN LOW TO SLIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN             
& THE UPPER SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MAKES SOME PROGRESS EAST.                      
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                         
MODELS SIMILAR WITH SLOWING DOWN APPROACHING SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE              
HIGH HOLDS OFF THE EAST COAST...AS WELL AS THE THE UPPER RIDGE. POP             
FORECASTS WILL REMAIN IN CHANCE CAT MUCH OF PERIOD UNTIL THE SYSTEM             
MAKES MORE PROGRESS EAST. A BOUNDARY SETTLES NEAR CWA ON                        
MONDAY...BUT THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                
THEN A COLD FRONT IS SEEN IN THE GFS FOR THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH                 
BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN                 
NORMAL FOR HIGHS...WHILE LOWS A BIT WARMER.                                     
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 74 48 75 57/ 00 10 20 20                                                    
PFN 74 56 75 62/ 00 20 30 30                                                    
DHN 72 54 72 58/ 00 20 30 30                                                    
ABY 73 49 74 56/ 00 10 20 20                                                    
VLD 74 49 76 56/ 00 10 10 10                                                    
CTY 75 49 77 58/ 00 10 10 10                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING 11 AM UNTIL SUNSET FOR FLZ11-13-16>19-26-27.              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
CURRENT...WOOL/18                                                               
PREVIOUS...MCT                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
651 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXACERBATING SITU THIS AM WRT TO TAFS. MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE                
MUCH TOO PESSIMISTIC GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS ACRS IL INTO WRN IN.                 
INCOMING MID/HIGH CLD SHIELD RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA HELPING             
MATTERS AS IS RENEWED BUT SCT SHRA. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS AREA OF             
LIFR WHICH HAD DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN WI ALG WK SFC TROUGH. MORE OF              
AN ISSUE FOR SBN AS BNDRY PIVOTS SWD IN RESPONSE TO BACKING LL FLW              
AHD OF STG SRN STREAM LOW HEADED FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. FWA SHLD STAY            
S BUT POSES MORE OF A CHALLENGE GIVEN LG STRATUS WEDGE OVR OH LIKELY            
NOT BREAKING UP THIS AFTN AND POTENTIAL TO ADVT WWD INTO FWA AREA               
LTR TDA. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT OTHERWISE FOLLOWING                
MORE OPTIMISTIC RH TRENDS SEEN IN SHRT TERM RUCII DATA AND                      
OBSERVATIONS.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
IMPRESSIVE SRN STREAM SYS POISED TO OPEN AND EJECT NE AHD OF                    
POWERHOUSE NRN STREAM WV COMING INTO BC THIS AM. FLOOD GATE OF MSTR             
IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM W/00Z H2O PLOT TELLING THE TALE AS MANY RAOBS               
AOA 200% OF NORMAL. MSTR PLUME NOT GOING ANYWHERE TOO SOON AND GIVEN            
CONTD PROXIMITY OF LL THETA GRADIENT AND WK UPR WV ALG SRN EDGE OF              
WESTERLIES UPSTREAM OVR WI...HAVE ADDED MORE POPS THIS AFTN S OF                
IN/MI BORDER. ALREADY COMPOSITE RADARS SHOWING QUITE A FEW SHOWERS              
OVR CNTRL/SRN WI AND INTO NRN IL AND MAY HAVE TO BACK THINGS UP                 
FURTHER IN GRIDS BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE ON THIS FTR FOR TDA.               
OTHERWISE OTHER PROBLEM THAT BEARS WATCHING IS FOG WHICH HAS BECOME             
DENSE ACRS NE IN CONJUCTION W/LOSS OF MID LVL CLD DECK...ALTHOUGH               
THAT APPEARS TO BE SHRT LIVED GIVEN ADDNL MID CLDS STREAMING EWD AHD            
OF WK WV IN WI AND MIGHT SQUEEK BYE WITHOUT HAVING TO POST AN                   
ADVISORY. LTL CHC FOR INSOLATIVE INPUT THIS AFTN AND VRY LIMITED                
MIXING AGAIN SUGGEST CUTTING TEMPS BACK SOME FOR THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH             
PASSAGE OF WI UPR TROUGH AND BACKING LL WINDS IN RESPONSE                       
TO EJECTING SRN WV LOOK TO PULL DOWN A BIT DRIER AIR LOCATED UP N               
BUT SRN EXTENT BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. HAVE MY             
DOUBTS IT WILL MAKE IT MUCH BEYOND THE BORDER AND HAVE REFINED                  
OVERNIGHT MINS TO CORRELATE. PRESENCE OF LL THETA GRADIENT AND                  
INCREASING UPR SPRT IN TANDEM W/DEEP MSTR PLUME IN PLACE SPELL CAT              
TO LIKELY POPS THEN TOO EXCEPT FAR NE BY DAYBREAK FRI.                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                       
MODELS STILL FOCUSING MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA               
MAINLY FRI AM...WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT SHIFTING NORTHEAST DURING             
THE AFTERNOON. HAVE OPTED TO GO CAT POPS ALL DAY...BUT LOW END OF               
CAT POPS IN SW COUNTIES IN AFTERNOON TO SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A                      
DECREASING TREND. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD CVR AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING            
MUCH OF A RISE IN TEMPS...WITH READINGS IN THE MID 50S LOOKING                  
GOOD...ON TRACK WITH GUIDANCE. FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS              
BEST LIFT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WITH SFC LOW STILL TO OUR               
IMMEDIATE WEST AND DEEP MSTR STILL IN PLACE...DON'T THINK IT WILL               
TAKE MUCH TO GET SOME SHOWERS OR AREAS OF RAIN...SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY            
POPS.                                                                           
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...CHC POPS STILL WARRANTED AS LOW BEGINS TO            
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MICHIGAN AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER              
TO THE AREA. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES...WHICH WITH SOME             
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED...TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE                   
MID-UPR 50S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S. STAYING ON COOLER END OF                 
GUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTANTITY. PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE             
AREA BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.                                                   
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES                   
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE TAKES               
HOLD OVER THE AREA. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO ADDRESS LAKE EFFECT            
POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS FAVORABLE DELTA T'S WILL                       
OCCUR...BUT FETCH NOT THE BEST FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OVER THE                  
FAVORED COUNTIES. SOME CONCERNS NOW STARTING TO EVOLVE ON POTENTIAL             
FOR FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IF ECMWF/GEM (AND GFS TO LESSER                
DEGREE) COME TRUE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GULF                 
STATES...TRACKING OVER CENTRAL OHIO ON WEDS WITH 1000-850 MB                    
THICKNESSES AOB 1530. TOO EARLY TO DEAL WITH IN GRIDS SO STATUS QUO             
FOR NOW.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HOLSTEN                                                   
LONG TERM...FISHER                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
920 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS NUMEROUS BREAKS DEVELOPING IN CLOUD               
FIELD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE            
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE BECOMING                    
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT. ETA20 AND RUC BOTH INDICATE                
GOOD DRYING BELOW 1000 FT IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AND SURFACE             
OBS AND SATELLITE SUPPORTING THIS. AS A RESULT FOG AND LOW CLOUD                
DISSIPATING RAPIDLY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED AT 845 AM AS                 
WELL. ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD 3-5 MILE VSBYS BY 11 AM. WILL ALSO                  
REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP AS DRIZZLE HAS DIMINISHED AS LOW CLOUDS                
LIFT. LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN LOWER SHOULD NOT DRIFT TO MUCH                   
FURTHER SOUTH AS ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE SHEARS EAST.                             
&&                                                                              
GSS                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 335 AM                                             
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING IS QUITE ACTIVE WITH 5 DISTINCT SHORT             
WAVES (DEPARTING WAVE NOW MOVING EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, OUR LONG             
LIVED WAVE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA, NEXT                
WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING EAST FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TOWARD JAMES BAY, AND             
THE LAST ONE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS CORRESPONDS            
TO A RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED UPPER JET FLOW ACROSS NOAM AS JET                  
STREAK FEATURES ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN.  OUR MAIN PLAYER IS                 
CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WILL IMPACT OUR REGION IN THE            
FORM OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.                                                         
UPSTREAM COOL FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE                
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT                
DROP BACK TO THE MIDDLE 40S WITH MIDDLE 30S FURTHER BACK INTO                   
WISCONSIN.  BUT WILL WE OBSERVE THESE LOWER VALUES ACROSS OUR STATE             
REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE RACING EAST ACROSS                 
CANADA WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE BETTER                  
HANDLED IN THE ETA THIS MORNING WHICH SUGGESTS HEIGHT RISES ACROSS              
LAKE WINNIPEG AND THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE AND HELP STRENGTHEN THE             
SURFACE HIGH.  WITH THAT SAID, OUR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD BECOMES               
NEARLY ZONAL WHICH MIGHT STALL THIS FRONT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE             
STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM AND            
WITH COMBINATION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS WAVE LIFTING NORTH, WE MIGHT                
HAVE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS THOSE SOUTHERN                 
COUNTIES.  FOR NOW, WE WILL ONLY HAVE MENTION DURING THE MORNING AS             
DAY CREW WILL MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEED            
BE.  TEMPS WILL ALSO BE TRICKY AS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LOCATION OF              
THIS FRONT WILL DICTATE WHERE WE WILL OBSERVE 60F.  WE WILL BANK                
ON NEAR 60 SOUTH 1/2 AND UPPER 50S NORTH 1/2.                                   
CROSS SECTIONS OVERNIGHT SHOW AN INCREASING EAST WIND AS SURFACE                
HIGH FROM THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WITH PLENTY OF            
DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND FILTERING SOUTH.  MEANWHILE, OUR                 
SOUTHERN SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASING IN                  
FORWARD SPEED.  PLENTY OF MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP SKIES IN              
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY RANGE (500MB AND UP) WITH LOWER CLOUD               
DECK FILTERING IN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW IN THE               
850-700 LAYER INCREASES TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST               
WHICH WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION             
BUT INCREASE THE THETA-E GRADIENT UPSTREAM AND FGEN FIELDS.  BY                 
FRIDAY MORNING (JUST BEFORE SUNRISE)...WOULD EXPECT RAIN CHANCES                
INCREASING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE OF            
RAIN THERE.  FURTHER NORTH, CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AND WITH SOME OF                
THIS DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP TEMPS BACK              
INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S...PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS            
OF BAY-MIDLAND COUNTIES IF DRIER AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH.                            
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE DRIER LOWER               
LEVELS AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING TOWARD 1" (WHICH IS                
OVER 200% OF NORMAL)...RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH                     
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.  IT MAY TAKE ALL DAY FOR THE NORTHERN                
1/3RD OF THE CWA AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE HIGH CHANCE THERE.                   
WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM (1010MB) WILL                 
TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WITH OCCLUDED FRONT HEADING NORTH                
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.  IMPRESSIVE DEEP THETA-E RIDGE                   
OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG AND                   
TEMPERATURES EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.                  
STILL RETAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON SATURDAY BUT MODEL MOISTURE              
FIELDS ARE TRENDING TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS (IE NOT NEARLY AS DEEP              
IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES)...BUT STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND.                  
WE ARE STILL ON TAP FOR A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH RAIN              
AND SNOW SHOWERS.  TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC             
AND LAKE CONTRIBUTION INFLUENCES.  BUT WOULD EXPECT ALL OF THE                  
REGION TO SEE SOME SNOW FALLING THE WEEK OF THANKSGIVING.                       
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
930 AM EST THU NOV 18 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...                                                 
IN WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING LOW / VORT MAX CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST            
OF CWA AND EXPECTED TO PASS OFF TO OUR EAST THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR               
SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS. KCTZ IS                     
REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. WILL ADD ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN TO THE AFTERNOON             
FORECAST BUT AS LIFT AND CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVE ON IT WILL BE OVER                 
EARLY.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM 12-14Z, TERMINALS                  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 19/12Z. A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX IN               
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST, SPREADING AN EXTENSIVE 6K               
CLOUD DECK ALONG WITH IT. THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT             
FLO THROUGH 19/12Z, WHILE SOME SCATTERING OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS                 
POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 20Z AS VORT PASSES AND                 
STRONGEST NVA SETTLES IN. WITH THE CLOUD DECK PERSISTING JUST TO THE            
WEST OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS, SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT 85H AFTER              
19/00Z SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD DECK TO ADVECT BACK EAST INTO THE COASTAL             
TERMINALS, WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 19/12Z.                                
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE WATERS AND 12Z RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS LESS             
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT WITH A SLIGHT VEERING THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL              
SEEING A 2.5 FT SWELL OVER THE WATERS SO MAY TWEAK SEA UP A 1/2 FOOT            
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS                                                            
AVIATION...MR                                                                   
MARINE...HAWKINS                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   nc