SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
152 PM MDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
ABOVE AVE TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.              
CURRENTLY: LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/400MB RUC MODEL DATA LOOPS                
SHOWED FAST MOVING WESTERLIES ACROSS NRN US WITH EXPANSIVE AREA OF              
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SRN US.  HINTS OF SOME MOISTURE MOVING NWD OUT             
OF NRN OLD MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERYS.  APPEARS MOISTURE IS             
REMNANT OF OLD CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NRN OLD MEXICO LAST NGT AND                
MOISTURE IS MAINLY AROUND 400MB PER 12Z/16 UPPER AIR ANALYSES.  TAIL            
END OF ANIMATION SHOWING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STARTING TO MAKE A MORE            
NE-ELY TURN INTO SERN AZ/SWRN NM. SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPING IN S CNTRL NM            
IN REGION OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE(DEW POINTS 50S)...MID LEVEL              
MOISTURE...AND OROGRAPHICS. SFC TEMPS WASTED NO TIME WARMING UP                 
TDA...WITH 80S-LOWER 90S BLO 8K FT MSL AND 70S/60S ABV 8K FT MSL(KLXV           
10.1K FT MSL NEARING 70F. LOW-MID LEVEL AIR MASS STILL FAIRLY DRY...            
DEW POINTS 20S/30S AND AROUND 15F AT KLXV/KALS...EXCEPT FOR KLAA                
WHERE 53F DEW POINTS HAVE SLOSHED BACK INTO THE STATION. LAPS CAPES             
HAVE INCREASED TO 800-1500 J/KG...LIS 0 TO -1C...AND CONVECTIVE                 
INHIBITION -325 J/KG. INVESTIGATION OF KLAA LAPS SOUNDING SHOWED                
MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW...<50MB DEEP...WITH DEEP RELATIVELY DRY AIR               
MASS BETWEEN 850MB-300MB IN REGION OF CAPE.                                     
TNGT-MON NGT: SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW PATTERN TO REMAIN STAGNANT FOR THE            
NEXT 2 DAYS.  ULJ STREAM PERSISTS OVER NRN US WITH WEAK MID LEVEL               
ANTICYCLONE PARKED OVER NM.  IN FACT...A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH                
PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF SRN US.  THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT             
NUMEROUS VERY WEAK-WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIPPLING                    
THROUGH THE WLY FLOW.  ALSO...IT SHOULD BE HARD TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY            
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN THIS PATTERN.  ANY                 
POTENTIAL MOISTURE WOULD BE AROUND 500MB COMING FROM W CNTL/SWRN US.            
THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WX ELEMENT WILL BE ABOVE...5-15F...AVE MAX TEMPS           
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  600MB AND 700MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE +4           
TO +6C AND +16 TO +18C...RESPECTFULLY.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS            
IN THE 90S...TO MAYBE NEAR 100F AROUND LAA AND HOLLY...ACROSS SERN              
CO AND 70S/80S ABOVE 6K FT MSL. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION                 
APPEARS TO BE PRETTY SLIME OR NIL. QUANTITY OF VERTICAL MOISTURE TO             
WORK WITH IS VERY POOR.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE               
BETWEEN 550-450MB SUN AND MON AFTN WITH NICE INVERTED-V SOUNDING                
THERMAL PROFILES.  BY NOON...SUN AND MON...MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE                
BEST...AROUND 500 J/KG...IN EXTREME SERN CO...BUT BECOMES VERY                  
WEAK...AOB 100 J/KG...BY SUN AND MON AFTN. MODEL BLYR BEST LIS                  
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 0C(WEAK) DURING MAX HEATING EACH DAY. SUB CLOUD            
LAYER LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO BE 8.0-10.0 C/KM DURING THE AFTNS.                
THERE IS SOME VERY WEAK SFC CONVG PROGGED AROUND BACA CO SUN AND                
MON...BUT SFC BASED SHRA/TSTM INITIATION MAY BE TOUGH DURING THE                
POTENTIAL MAX CAPE DUE TO MOD CAPPING INVERSION(+14 TO +17C/700MB)              
AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM JUXTAPOSED TO ENHANCE                     
CONVECTION.  ON BOTH DAYS...MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENS ACROSS SERN CO                
PLAINS DURING THE AFTN AS CONVECTIVE TEMP(100F BASED ON MODEL                   
SOUNDINGS) NEARS...BUT CAPE VALUES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY(< 100                 
J/KG).  K-INDICES...BOTH DAYS...ARE RUNNING AOB 10C.  ANY POTENTIAL             
PRECIPITATION...FOR SERN CO...WOULD HAVE TO COME OFF OF THE MTNS                
WHERE NO CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME              
"BETTER" MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NEAR EXTREME SERN CO...HOWEVER              
SW-WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER CO SHOULD KEEP THIS MOISTURE IN NM/TX-OK             
PANHANDLES-CNTRL PLAINS SUN AFTN-MON NGT. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT           
ON THIS FEATURE STAYING OUT OF SERN CO. NONE OF THE SHORT RANGE                 
MODELS PRINTING OUT QPF ACROSS SRN CO SUN-MON. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED             
AFTN INVERTED-V SOUNDING STRUCTURE AND IF CAPE VALUES ARE STRONGER              
THAN FORECAST...COULDN'T RULE OUT VIRGA "BOMBS" OR "SPRINKLES."  MAIN           
FEATURES WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN...            
IF THEY FORM.  THUNDER POTENTIAL DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...UNLESS           
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SRN CO. AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...              
VIRGA OR "SPRINKLES" NOT REALLY WORTH A POP FORECAST AND CAN BE                 
HANDLED IN MORE DETAIL AS FORECAST PERIODS GET INTO THE 1ST PERIOD.             
PERSISTENCE PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO PLAY TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS.            
MOS TEMP GUIDANCE DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD...BUT NOT SURE WHY MON WILL              
BE 5-7F COOLER THAN SUN IN SERN CO GIVEN SAME SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE                
PATTERNS.                                                                       
SFC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO EXTREME NERN CO MON LATE AFTN-EVE            
THEN RACE DOWN ERN CO PLAINS OVRNGT MON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES              
INTO NE. ALSO POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL MCS ACROSS NE/KS...AT EXIT REGION             
OF 40-45KT S-SWLY LLJ OVER SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...WILL HELP SHOVE FRONT S           
AND W.                                                                          
EXTENDED(TUE-SAT): 72-84HR(TUE) ETA/AVN SHOWING E-SELY SHALLOW LOW              
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS AND SHOULD BRING SLIGHT                   
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS(NEAR 50F)...EXCEPT FOR                   
SW/CNTRL MTNS/SAN LUIS VALLEY.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF W-NWLY FLOW               
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES.  MODEL CAPE VALUES              
PROGGED TO BE 1000-2000 J/KG DURING MAX HEATING.  MID CREW ADDED                
SMALL POP FOR SERN CO MTNS/PLAINS AND STILL LOOKS GOOD.  THE REST               
OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS OK. AVN HINTING AT POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD                   
STRATO-CU FIELD IN ERN CO...WHICH COULD HAMPER WARMING AND TSTM                 
POTENTIAL WED-FRI.  STILL HARD PRESSED FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE                 
SWRN/CNTRL/SAN LUIS VALLEY TUE-SAT THANKS TO RELATIVELY DEEP DRY AIR            
MASS AND WLY FLOW.                                                              
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
METZE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                               
1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF            
THE LAKE JUDGING BY THE WIND FIELD AND ISOBARIC ANALYSIS.                       
UNFORTUNATELY...WE DID NOT HAVE A 12Z SNDG TODAY NEITHER DID TBW.               
SO I HAVE TO USE EYW FOR MY ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH GUIDANCE AND                 
SATELLITE/SOUNDER DATA ONLY. H5 TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE -9 (FOR               
EYW THAT IS PRETTY COLD). PWAT IS RUNNING AROUND 1.70 AND AFTERNOON             
MODIFIED CAPE IS 4500. WE HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS            
STILL ABOUT THE SAME...IF NOT A BIT HIGHER...THAN YESTERDAY. W/V SAT            
LOOP ALSO SHOWS RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY/COLD SLOT                
ALOFT MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST COAST ATTM. EVEN WITHOUT                
THAT POOL OF COLD AIR OVER US EYW SNDG SHOWED DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS             
GREATER THAN 40 BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB. LOOKS LIKE STORM MOTION                 
TODAY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE NNE AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. SO C-BRZ AND               
OUTFLOWS WILL WEIGHT ON ULTIMATE STORM MOTIONS AS STEERING FLOW IS              
WEEK. ULTIMATELY...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS TODAY SO LOCALLY                  
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. I WILL INCREASE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST               
POPS TO THE LIKELY RANGE OF 60% AND LEAVE THEN THE SAME ELSEWHERE AS            
I EXPECT C-BRZ TO HOLD CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND AND WEST. THAT                  
IS...MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD OFF FROM WESTERN SUBURBS IN THE SE              
COAST WESTWARD. THIS IS IN LINE BY WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE RUC AND             
MESOETA MODELS ALSO. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL KEEP STRONG                     
THUNDERSTORMS WORDING IN ZFP ALSO.                                              
MARINE...LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO AMENDMENTS MADE.                                  
FIRE WX...NO HIGHLIGHTS.                                                        
.MIA...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
PS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
1015 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSES SHOW A             
VORT MAX NEAR THE MS COAST WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING NEWD INTO NW GA.              
LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA SHOW THIS AXIS LYING ACROSS SC GA AND THE ERN            
PANHANDLE BY 21Z. 12Z KTLH SOUNDING WAS STILL MOIST AND UNSTABLE                
WITH A PW OF 1.7 AND UNMODIFIED CAPE OVER 3000 J/G. BUT, WE ALREADY             
HAVE DEEP NW FLOW AS EVIDENCED ON THE SOUNDING AND VWP AND A DRYING             
TREND IS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS, THE INSTABILITY            
AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER LONGEST IN SE ZONES WHERE UPPER SUPPORT                
WILL BE PRESENT, SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN ALL DAY FOR OUR SE                 
ZONES INCLUDING THE BIG BEND AND SC GA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY             
INDICATE A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE ERN PANHANDLE WITH ATTENDANT                 
CONVECTION ACROSS BAY AND CALHOUN COUNTIES. POPS WILL BE REMOVED N              
AND W OF THIS LINE. TEMPS LOOK IN THE BALL PARK, BUT WILL INSPECT               
15Z OBS TO SEE IF ANY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN ORDER. HAVE NOTED                
ALREADY THAT DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE BOTH FWC AND MAV MOS.            
MARINE: WILL MODIFY WIND DIRECTION FORECAST TO W BECOMING NW.                   
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES.                                                          
.TLH...                                                                         
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...NONE.                                                                      
WOOL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
745 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INTRODUCE SCTD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FOR                 
WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF A CANTON-MASON CITY-             
SPRINGFIELD LINE. RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT ELEVATED              
CONVECTION ALONG SE IA/NE MO BORDER IS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS              
IT MOVES INTO WCENT IL. SOME WEAKENING IS XPCTD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO             
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION. LATEST RUC ALSO POINTING TO             
A CONTINUATION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE             
XPCTD OVERNIGHT NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER. THIS IS XPCTD TO PROPAGATE               
INTO WCENT IL AS IT TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THUS...DECIDED TO KEEP              
THE MENTION OF SCTD PCPN IN THE FCST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE                   
AFOREMENTIONED AREA.                                                            
AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE ISOLD SHOWERS NW-N OF                
PEORIA WILL PERSIST. ALSO...THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING AND WIND PROFILERS             
DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THE RAINFALL ENTERING WCENT IL WILL MAKE IT MUCH            
FARTHER EAST THAN I-55. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING            
FOR LATER UPDATES IN CASE THIS SCENARIO CHANGES.                                
.ILX...NONE.                                                                    
$$                                                                              
MILLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT BETTER TIMING OF TSTM DVLPMNT                   
OVRENIGHT AND LOCATION.  WITH FOCUS OF LLJ AND LKLY ELEVATED PCPN               
SRN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN LINE FOR DVLPMNT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH               
PSBL HVY RAINS AS HI MOISTURE PLUME CONCENTRATES IA/MO BORDER. LTST             
RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON OVRNGT DYNAMICS.  UPPER TEMPS                
ABIT NI THE SOUTH WITH CLDS CVR AND INCRSG DWPOINTS.                            
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
FORSTER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1037 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
LINE TO SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND OFF OF LAKE MI LATE THIS             
EVENING. RUC HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EVENT THROUGHOUT THE LATE            
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOVING OVER LAKE MI              
HAS DIMINISHED COVERAGE...AND INTENSITY TO AN EXTENT. HOWEVER...500 MB          
COLD POOL AND JET MAX...DPVA AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0             
AND 7.5 C/KM HAVE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN STRONG                   
CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. INITIAL DATA FROM APX 00Z              
SOUNDING SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL HAS DROPPED TO 9500 FEET WITH CAA                 
ALOFT IN PROGRESS AS THE 500 MB COLD POOL APPROACHES. BASED ON                  
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND REGIONAL SPOTTER REPORTS...MAIN THREAT FROM            
STORMS ARE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL.                       
CURRENT ZONE FORECAST IS ON TARGET...WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ALL               
ZONES...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO UPDATE ZONES JUST            
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...                  
CLOUD...TEMP AND WIND FORECAST IS IN LINE THUS FAR.                             
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
EME                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/COVERAGE.                 
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED RDG OVER NE CONUS AND STRONG              
MID LVL LO OVER NW ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW                    
PREVAILED FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE WRN GRT LAKES. UPR LVL DIV WITH              
LFQ OF 90 KNOT JET INTO SRN AND ASSOCIATED COMPACT VORT OVER CNTRL              
MN WITH -21C H5 COLD POOL WAS SUPPORTING TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER NE MN            
WITH DPVA...QVECTOR CONV AND STEEPENING H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA                   
7C/KM.  KDLH 88D SHOWED SCT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA PROGRESSING                   
QUICKLY FROM NW WI TO IWD INTO AREA WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.              
IR/VIS LOOP INDICATED DEEPENING CU FIELD OVER MOST OF UPR MI WITH LK            
BREEZE BNDRY FROM KIWD TO L'ANSE AND OFF OF LK MI FROM GLADSTONE TO             
KERY.                                                                           
950 WSW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WERE ENOUGH TO KEEP BNDRY OFFSHORE MOST              
OF THE AFTERNOON NEAR MARQUETTE BUT HAVE SWITCHED ALONG SHORELINE AT            
19Z...PER OB AT PRESQUE ISLE.                                                   
MDL DIFFERENCES ARISE THROUGH 48 HRS...ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT INTO                
MONDAY MAINLY WITH TIMING OF WEAK SHRTWVS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE             
PCPN INTRODUCING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY. WL...HOWEVER...SIDE CLOSER             
TO ETA WITH DETAILS.                                                            
TONIGHT...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND OVER                    
WEST/CNTRL UPR UPR MI AND EVENTUALLY INTO ERN PORTION OF CWA LATER              
THIS EVENING AS DPVA/QVECT CONV INCREASES AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES               
STEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF SHRTWV. THE KEWEENAW AND FAR SE UPR                    
MI...STABILIZED BY LK AIR...SHOULD BE SPARED HOWEVER. WITH ONLY WEAK            
UNIDIRECTIONAL LLVL OR 0-6 KM SHEAR...STORMS HAVE BEEN MAINLY                   
PULSE-LIKE AND DISORGANIZED. LOW WBZ NEAR 8K FT AND DRY PROFILE BLO             
LCL SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND LCL WIND GUSTS              
TO 50 MPH. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS SHRTWV MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT AND            
DIURNAL COOLING AND QDIV TAKE OVER.                                             
SUNDAY...WEAK SFC RDG AND 700-300 QDIV AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR RIGHT                
EXIT OF H3 JET WILL DOMINATE UPR MI. WEAKER WIND FIELD WILL ALLOW LK            
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FCST WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY               
IN THE MID 40S F. H85 TEMPS NEAR 8C-11C SUGGEST INLAND READINGS IN              
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F FROM NE TO SW.                                       
SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN MN AT NOSE OF 50 KT              
LLJ AND STRONG H8 THETAE ADVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD                     
PROPAGATE MAINLY EASTWARD THROUGH WI TOWARD LWR MI (PER 850-300                 
THICKNESS)...WL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR UPR MI...HIGHEST SOUTH.                 
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH MCS SHOULD                  
EXIT SE PORTION OF UPR MI EARLY...LEAVING LULL IN PCPN TIL MAINLY               
LATE IN THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF SFC FRONT. WITH DIFFICULTY IN                  
TIMING OF FRONT AND SUPPORTING SHRTWVS WL LEAVE POPS IN CHANCE                  
CATEGORY. MDLS TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A QUICKER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT            
AND ASSOCIATED SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN GRT LAKES.                                
EXTENDED...WHILE MRF/ECWMF SUGGEST SHOW FRONT SAGGING SOUTH OF THE              
AREA AND NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHRTWV DIVING MAINLY SW OF UPR MI...12Z               
AVN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 12Z UKMET SHOW ANOTHER MID LVL LO                
DROPPING INTO UPR MI WED/THURS WITH ATTENDANT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.                
SO...WL LEAVE PCPN IN FOR WED AND RETAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH POTENTIAL            
FOR DIURNAL SHRA WITH COLD POOL ALOFT. WL KEEP TEMPS A BIT ABV                  
GUIDANCE VALUES...MAINLY IN THE 60S F...PER MRF ENSEMBLE H85 PROG.              
MID LVL RDG BUILDS FROM PLAINS TOWARD HUDSON BAY WITH SFC RDGING                
OVER GRT LAKES FRI/SAT WITH DRY WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1200 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
CONCERN FOR UPDATE IS CONVECTION LOCATION AND TIMING                            
WV/IR SAT SHOW BROAD UPR LOW NOW APPROACHING HUDSON BAY WITH                    
ASSOCIATED COLD CONVEYOR CLOUDS AS CLOSE AS NRN MN. WV LOOP ALSO                
SHOWING SHARP H3 JET MEANDERING ITS WAY FM PAC NW INTO NRN PLAINS               
AND FINALLY RACING NORTH INTO UPR LOW. THIS JET STREAK ALONG WITH               
LIFT FM SHRTWV OVR ND/SD BORDER WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST H5 COLD                
POOL ALOFT TO PRODUCE SCT SHRA/TSRA OVR MAINLY SWRN 2/3 OF UPR MI               
THIS AFTN...WHICH IS THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE.                             
A LOOK AT RECENT HISTORY WITH THIS UPR JET/SHRWV/COLD POOL                      
INTERACTION OVR THE LAST TWO DAYS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION SHOULD               
FIRE FAIRLY CLOSE TO RRQ OF UPR JET. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT NOSE OF              
UPR JET AXIS WILL BE AIMED AT ECNTRL WI BY 21Z SUGGESTING THAT                  
MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVR WI AND ALONG THE WI BORDER                 
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...RUC/ETA SHOWS -20C H5 COLD POOL SLIDING ACROSS              
EXTREME NRN WI INTO SC UPR MI BY LATE AFTN. EVEN THOUGH DYNAMICS                
APPEAR TO REMAIN GENERALLY TO SOUTH OF UPR MI...INITIATING                      
BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH ANY LK BREEZE                     
CONPONENT TO WINDS. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE NW/SW LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE              
ZONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP PER SFC OBS. BOUNDARY SEEMS TO             
GO FM ONT...TO SAW AND TO NEAR SENEY. FURTHER CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY             
ALONG THE SCTNRL ZONES...WHERE WINDS ARE ALREADY TURNING ONSHORE                
(180 WIND DIR AT ISQ AND ELKHORN IN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY). AS H95                 
WINDS FALL BLO 15KT BY MID-AFTN EXPECT LK BREEZE TO ALSO FORM OVR               
MNM/DLT COUNTIES AS WELL. ETA/RUC SHOW MOST AGREEMENT WITH 950-850MB            
CONVERGENCE OVR SCNTRL UPR MI...WHILE ETA IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH               
CONVERGENCE FARTHER NORTH OVR MQT/ALGER COUNTIES. WL GO WITH ISO/SCT            
POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ALONG WI                   
BORDER. KEWEENAW PENINSULA SHOULD STAY CLEAR OF ANY CONVECTION SO               
WILL INCLUDE WELL SOUTH OF HOUGHTON WORDING IN ZONES.                           
AS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM SPECIFICS...EXPECT SCT/NUM COVERAGE FOR TS              
AS K INDEX RISES FM 30 (ETA) TO 35 (RUC) AND CT ARE FM 25-29 AFT                
21Z...SHOWN BY VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H10-H5 LAYER AS RUC                
DEPICTS H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.75C/KM WITH TT/S APPROACHING 60             
ALONG THE WI BORDER BY LATE AFTN. WBZEROS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR                
SOME HAIL AS THEY ARE PROGGED IN THE 8-9KFT RANGE TODAY ALONG THE WI            
BORDER...WHICH AGREES WITH UPSTREAM 12Z ABR SOUNDING (WBZ=7900FT).              
SOUNDINGS FM MPX/ABR/BIS ALL SHOW MARGINALLY MOIST PROFILES BTWN                
H8-H6 WITH DRY AIR BLO H8. STRONGEST STORMS COULD YIELD SOME GUSTY              
WINDS THOUGH AS ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED V LOOK BY LATE              
AFTN. ALL IN ALL IT APPEARS MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF                
MOISTURE IN PRE-ENVIRONMENT AS INSTABILITY BLO H8 IS MARGINAL WITH              
SFC TD BTWN 48-53F AND SBCAPES FM 500-1000J/KG. HOWEVER...AS MAIN               
SHRTWV AND H85-H7 MOISTURE ARRIVE BY LATE AFTN...THIS WILL BEGIN TO             
BE COMPENSATED FOR.                                                             
LITTLE CHANGES MADE IN TEMPS/WINDS FM PREVIOUS FCST...STILL A BREEZY            
AFTN ON KEWEENAW WITH WINDS THROUGH H9 NOT FALLING BLO 25KT TIL AFT             
21Z.                                                                            
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1114 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                     
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST... SO WILL ONLY NEED TO                
FRESHEN THE WORDING IN THIS UPDATE. MORNING SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTIVE            
OF TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST... SO NO CHANGES            
ARE WARRANTED THERE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE              
OF WIDESPREAD CU DEVELOPMENT... NOR ARE THE CU SCHEME PROGS FROM THE            
LATEST RUC AND ETA. THESE SUGGEST SOME SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON... BUT             
NOTHING MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE ABOVE             
6K FEET. HOWEVER... THERE IS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE                
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE VORT                   
LOBE/SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE STRAITS SOUTHWEST INTO              
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO ERODE             
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SEEN ON THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING... AND IS                 
PROVIDING A BOOST TO THE 850-700MB RH VALUES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES               
ARE ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE... AND IT COULD HELP SPUR              
SOME ADDITIONAL CU DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL...              
FEEL THINGS WILL COME TOGETHER ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GOING PARTLY                  
CLOUDY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                              
TRH                                                                             
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN                                              
940 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW HAS A WEAK AREA OF VORT AND TEMP ADVCTN                    
EMBEDDED IN IT OVER THE DAKOTAS. MOSAIC 88D PAINTING SOME SHOWERS               
BUT NO LIGHTNING EVIDENT IN IT. THE RUC HAS A RIBBON OF 850-500 MB              
70 PCT RH IN THAT AREA AND EXTENDING ESEWD INTO CNTRL MN. THIS IS               
ALSO ON THE N SIDE OF THE LOWEST LI'S OF -2 TO -4. EXTRAPOLATION OF             
THESE FEATURES WOULD BUT THE MOST LIKELY BAND SOUTH OF A BJI-DLH                
LINE. IN THE EARLY GOING, THE ETA/MESOETA HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF              
THIS SITUATION. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED IN ZFP.                           
.DLH...NONE.                                                                    
CS                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
525 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN. HAVE               
ALSO ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA EXCEPT THE WESTERN            
MOST ZONES AND N ONEIDA COUNTY. IN THESE AREAS THE HEAVIEST RAINS               
HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED EAST OR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH. SPOTTERS             
HAVE REPORTED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR IN SOME                   
PLACES. THE RUC MODEL INDICATES THE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE             
EAST.                                                                           
.BGM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS EVENING NYZ017-024-025-055-PAZ038                 
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT NYZ018-036-037-044-045-056              
       FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT NY046-057-062-PAZ040-048                       
SMF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...2ND COR TO CCF                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS RUC            
GUIDANCE INDICATES MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS                  
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL TO THE VALLEY YESTERDAY...IS TO THE WEST OVER               
NORTHEAST MEXICO. NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEAK                    
SEABREEZE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS. HOWEVER...HEAVY SHOWERS WERE                   
DEVELOPING NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW APPEARS TO              
BE DRAWING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER MEXICO                
INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. LIKELY TO SEE ADDITIONAL               
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER STARR...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTY THIS               
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIMITING FACTOR SO FAR IS CLOUD COVER.                   
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PW'S FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT             
AS THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE LAST.               
WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS FAR WEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR                
NOW. ZONAL FLOW TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WITH SUBTROPICAL                
RIDGE BRINING SUBSIDENT AIR OVER THE VALLEY MONDAY. WITH RELATIVELY             
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...LIKELY TO SEABREEZE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY              
MAINLY EAST. DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE TO               
KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.                                                        
EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE                     
SOUTHWEST U.S. EXTENDING INTO TEXAS. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS            
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS FOR DIURNAL SEABREEZE CONVECTION.                        
MARINE...CURRENTLY 4 FEET SEAS OFFSHORE WITH EAST WIND NEAR 8 KNOTS.            
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH               
A SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING.                                                    
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...                                                          
BRO BU 075/094 074/095 075 12010                                                
HRL BU 073/095 073/096 074 12010                                                
MFE BU 074/097 074/098 075 12010                                                
RGC BU 073/099 073/100 074 21000                                                
SPI BU 076/089 075/090 076 02010                                                
PUBLIC-SYNOPTIC...CASTILLO (61)                                                 
AVIATION-MARINE...CORDERO (64)                                                  
INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                         
.BRO...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
312 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
FCST CONCERN WL AGN BE TSTM TRENDS THRU WHAT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER               
ACTIVE START OF THE WEEK.  NARROW BAND OF TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ACRS SERN            
SXNS OF FA ON NOSE OF ELEVATED WRM ADVCTN DEPICTED WELL IN STLT                 
IMAGERY FM S CNTRL SD TO JUST SE OF KDSM.  JUDGING FM CURRENT LAPS              
AND RUC SOUNDINGS...MSTR LVLS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH             
POSITIVE AREA SO TSTMS HAVE MAINLY BEEN BLO SVR LMTS.  HWVR THIS                
WL CHG TDA.  07Z SFC ANLYS PLACES WRMFNT ALG NE/KS BORDER INTO NRN              
MO AND SHOULD BGN SURGING NWD LATER TDA AS SHRT WV RDG ACRS NRN                 
PLAINS MOVES EWD...AND CYCLOGENESIS BGNS FM WY INTO NE.  PROBLEM TDA            
WL BE WHERE CONVECTION DVLPS.  IF CONVECTION CONTS THRU MRNG AND                
EVEN INTENSIFIES A BIT...MID LVL THETA-E ADVCTN SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR            
IT TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLY BCM MORE SFC BASED BY LATE AFTN.  THIS               
WOULD KEEP CHCS OVR MUCH OF FA MUCH LIKE DEPICTED BY ETA.  HWVR IF              
THIS DSIPTS...ONLY NRN SXNS MAY SEE PCPN AS WRMFNT ESTABLISHES                  
ITSELF INTO SRN MN BY EARLY EVE.  LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDC THIS MAY             
BE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH LOW LVL CNVGNC STAYING WEAK TDA...SO WL            
GRADIATE POPS FM LOW CHC CATEGORY SW BHND CURRENT CONVECTION...TO               
HIGH CHC CATEGORY NRN PTNS.                                                     
FOR TNGT...AGREE WITH HPC DISCS CONCERNING MCS DVLPMT INVOF WRMFNT.             
AVN AND ETA A BIT DIFFERENT WITH ETA KEEPING PCPN S AND AVN SURGING             
H85 THETA-E ADVCTN AND ASSOCD QPF N OF FA OVNGT.  CANNOT SEE THAT               
MUCH OF A JUMP OF LOW LVL BACLIN ZN BY THE TIME LOW LVL JET DVLPS               
TNGT SO AM FAVORING ETA SOLUTION WHICH PLACES 1000-850MB THETA-E                
CVNGNC ACRS NRN PTNS AT 06Z.  MSTR TRANSPORT AT SAME LYR AND TIME               
FOCUSED INTO NWRN SXNS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS SSWLY SO WL MENTION                 
LCLLY HVY RAINS IN ZNS.  SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CERTAINLY ADEQUATE               
FOR SVR TSTMS TOO WITH SUPERCELL AND LINEAR STRUCTURES BOTH POSSIBLE.           
FOR MON INTO TUE...UPR LVL TROF NOW APCHG PAC NW SLIDES ACRS NRN                
CONUS WHICH PUSHES BNDRY BACK SEWD AS CDFNT.  XPC CONVECTION TO BE              
LINGERING ACRS NW HLF OF FA MON MRNG...WITH MORE REDVLPMT LATE AND              
LASTING INTO EARLY TUE WITH SLOW FNTL MOVMT TO THE SE.  SYNOPTIC                
SCALE FORCING MORE PREVALENT THIS TIME ARND WITH H85/H7                         
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND UPR LVL DVRGNC IN RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF             
UPR LVL JET BOTH INCRG.  H85/H3 MEAN WND PARALLELS FNT WITH CORFIDI             
VECTORS ALMOST NIL SO MON NGT CERTAINLY A HVY RAIN THREAT AGN AND WL            
MENTION CNTRL AND SERN SXNS AHD OF FNT.  AVN AND ETA BOTH INDC PWS              
AOA 1.50 INCHES MON NGT.  WL UPDATE FLOOD POTENTIAL OTLK ISSUED BY              
YDAS DAY SHIFT TO REFLECT THIS THINKING...AND ADVISE DAY TDAS THAT              
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS EVENT NRS TNGT AND CONVECTIVE                
TRENDS AND PLACEMENT MORE APPARENT.  SVR THREAT DOES NOT LOOK AS BAD            
WITH SHEAR DCRG.                                                                
IN EXTENDED PD...AMS APPRS TO STABILZE ENOUGH BY TUE AND WED THAT               
CURRENT WORDING MAY BE HIT TOO HARD...SO WL GO WITH SHWRS AND A FEW             
TSTMS XCP SERN PTNS WHERE TSTMS COULD LINGER TUE MRNG.                          
GUID TEMPS SIMILAR TIL MON NGT WHEN AVN MOS TURNS COOLER WITH HIGHS             
ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S BY TUE.  THIS SEEMS TOO EXTREME WITH             
ETA TEMPS WRMR 48-60 HRS SO WL GO JUST BLO WRMR NGM MOS IN THAT TIME            
PD.                                                                             
.DSM...NONE                                                                     
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE SHRA/TSRA CHC LATE TONIGHT INTO             
MON NIGHT.                                                                      
WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHRTWV TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR                       
YESTERDAY'S T-STORMS MOVG E THRU LWR MI ATTM WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV                
DIGGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. BTWN THESE FEATURES RDG HGTS FCST BY              
MODELS TO BUILD OVR THE NRN PLAINS TODAY.                                       
TODAY...WK UPR RDGG BUILDING IN FM WEST WITH MODELS INDICATING DNVA             
AND 850-500 MB Q-VECT DIV WITH ASSOC DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT              
ON ETA FCST SNDGS. WITH SFC DWPNTS STILL EXPECTED IN MID 40S TO                 
AROUND 50...AND 850 MB TEMPS 6-8C...LOOK FOR DIURNAL CU TO FORM                 
ESPECIALLY INLAND ALG DVLPG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDRIES. 850 TEMPS AROUND             
2C COOLER OVER MOST LOCATIONS SO EXPECT INLAND TEMPS TO BE 2-4F                 
COOLER DESPITE PARTIAL SUN AND LACK OF PCPN.                                    
.TONIGHT...PIECE OF SHRTWV ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF AMPLIFYING NRN RCKYS            
TROF THIS EVENING AS SFC SYSTEM OVR THE NRN PLAINS DEEPENS...00Z                
MODELS AND 06Z ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DETAILS SHOWING WMFNT                   
ADVANCING THRU WI AND MN TO NR U.P. BDR BY 12Z MON. WITH GOOD MSTR              
SURGE ALG AND BEHIND WMFNT (DWPNTS CLIMB INTO UPPER 50S AND LOWER               
60S ALG WI/U.P. BDR BY 12Z) AND INCRG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-VECT                
CONV AHD OF FNT DECIDED TO BUMP UP SHRA/TSRA POPS TO LIKELY ALG WI              
BDR/LAKE MI COUNTIES AND TO HIGH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE FOR MAINLY AFT              
MIDNIGHT TIMING.                                                                
.MONDAY...WMFNT MOVES INTO U.P. WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING DEVELOPING              
MCS ALG WMFNT MOVG WEST TO EAST ACROSS U.P. WITH TIMING OF LATE                 
MORNING TO ERY AFT HOURS. GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING NOTED ACROSS              
FA WITH 90KT 3H JET MOVG NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. CAPES CLIMB TO                 
700-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH 30-40 KT 8H JET NOSING ACROSS ERN HALF OF              
FA. 500 MB ALSO FCST TO BE FM 35 KTS NORTH TO 60 KTS SOUTH. WITH                
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL (WSW) 850-500 MB SPEED SHEAR WOULD EXPECT                 
POSSIBLE SVR WX THREAT WITH BOW ECHO FORMATION. NOT SURPRISINGLY SPC            
HAS U.P. IN SLGT RISK FOR DAY 2. GIVEN SUCH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE                
SCENARIO...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR ALL ZONES.                              
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VORT MAX WITH AMPLIFIED TROF PUSHES                 
CDFNT ACROSS FA MON EVNG SO STILL KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS IN                
EVNG FOR ALL ZONES. USED SLIGHTLY QUICKER TIMING OF AVN WITH MVMT OF            
CDFNT THRU FA...SO HAVE INTRODUCED PARTIAL CLRG IN WRN HALF ZONES               
LATE. ALSO TOOK OUT POPS FOR EARLY TUESDAY AS CDFNT ALREADY EAST OF             
FA PER AVN AND 06Z ETA AND GOOD DRYING WITH DIFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC               
SFC FLOW FM WEST BY 12Z TUE.                                                    
COORD WITH APX...THANKS.                                                        
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
211 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
CRNT(04Z): HVY RAINS (LOCALLY 2+ INCHES) OCCURRED ACRS NRN NY LATE              
SAT AFTN/EVE AND MORE HEAVY RAIN UPSTREAM IN CATSKILLS WERE AN                  
APPARENT B-LINE FOR NE NY AND CHMPL VLY VT ERLY THIS MRNG. MDL DATA             
DOING A LOUSY JOB OF HNDLG UNFOLDING SITUATION...EVEN RUC TOTALLY               
MISSING THE BOAT (WHICH WE MAY NEED BFR THE NGT IS OVR). ETA/MESO ETA           
HAS SOME HINT OF THIS SECOND ROUND BUT DISPLACES MUCH OF THE HVY PCPN           
ACRS SRN/ERN VT LTR THIS MRNG (WHICH STL PSBL AND LKLY). AVN IS                 
CLOSEST...BUT THAT/S A RELATIVE TERM.                                           
WTR VPR AND IR IMAGERY SHWS DEEPER LYRD MOISTURE ADVECTING DUE NORTH            
ACRS SE NY HEADED FOR CHMPL VLY/NE NY WITH WRM CLD DEPTHS >10K AND              
PW/S >1.5 INCHES. WTR VPR IMAGERY INDICATES A WK WAVE PSBLY DVLPG IN            
NE PA AND THIS MATCHES UP WITH MDL DATA SHWG WEAK S/W CROSSING THIS             
AREA...AS WELL AS COOLING TOPS AND INCRSD LGTNG STRIKES. IR IMAGERY             
SHOWS COOLING TOPS MVG DUE NORTH...AN XCLNT INDICATION THAT WAVE IS             
LKLY DVLPG AND THUS EASTWARD PROGRESS LKLY HALTED FOR AWHILE OVRNGT.            
ALSO...ERLR CONVECTION FM "ALLISON" IN NC HAS DISSIPATED THUS                   
ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION FM THIS SYSTEM TO MV N BUT STL A                
DISTINCT BRK BTWN SYSTEMS (ALBEIT...ONLY THE N-S EXTENT OF PA).                 
THIS HAS ME CONCERNED ABT PSBL FFA FOR NE NY FOR ERLY THIS MRNG...              
WL CLOSELY MONITOR RDR TRENDS AND IF NO SIGNS OF EASTWARD PROGRESS              
AND RDR COVERAGE INCREASING UPSTREAM...THEN WL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE               
FOR FFA IN NE NY.                                                               
*** LATEST AT 06Z ***                                                           
RDR TRENDS INDICATING SLGT EASTWARD PROGRESS IN NRN PTNS OF ACTVTY              
ACRS CLINTON CTY NY. RDR ACTVTY LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE ACRS CAPITAL              
DISTRICT NY BUT STL RAINFALL RPTS ARD 1/4 AN HR. THEREFORE...WL HOLD            
OFF ON ANY FFA FOR NE NY. KCXX DOWN UFN!!!                                      
*********************                                                           
THESE ERLY SIGNS CUD BE SETTING THE TREND FOR LTR THIS MRNG/AFTN                
WHERE ALL MDLS INDICATED HVY RAINS ACRS SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS               
TREND CUD MEAN A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT...PSBLY AFFECTING SRN/ERN VT AS            
WELL. ATTM...WITH FFG OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES FOR 6-12 HR TIMEFRAME AND               
CRNT UPSTREAM ACTVTY ONLY ARD 1/4 INCH AN HR...WL HOLD OFF BUT FEEL             
IT WL BE WITHIN 50-60NM SE OF SRN FA.                                           
ALSO...NOT HNDLD BY MDLS AND NEEDS TO BE WATCHED IS CONVECTION ACRS             
GRT LAKES ASSOC WITH DECENT S/W THAT WL ACT AS STEERING FORCE TO                
PUSH A SCNDRY COOL FNT ACRS FA LTR TDY. JUICY DEWPOINTS STL EXIST IN            
ST LWRNC VLY/CENT NY FOR CHC ANTHR ROUND OF -SHRA AND PERHAPS                   
-TSRA...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON WITH SCNDRY S/W MVG INTO MOIST...                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASSES THAT WERE NOT CLEANSED AS MDLS INDICATED WUD BE.             
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACRS FA FM WEST TO EAST LATE TDY THRU TNGT...BUT           
LGT WNDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AREAS/PATCHES OF FOG SUN NGT             
WITH SUNNY AND PLEASANT MONDAY.                                                 
XNTD FCST LOOKS ALRIGHT WITH ANTHR SYSTEM TUES NGT/WED STALLING JUST            
S OF FA AS A FOCUS AXIS FOR MORE PSBL ACTVTY FOR LATE WEEK.                     
WORKS ARD 3 AM.                                                                 
HAPPY FATHER/S DAY.                                                             
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
SLW                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2001                                                      
FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR             
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
IN THE SHORT TERM...ETA/NGM/AVN/RUC PROGOLOGY ALL DEVELOP CHANGING              
WEATHER PATTERN OVER CWA TO ONE OF A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF                 
WEATHER AFTER TODAY. AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF                    
REGION...PROGS ZERO IN ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN.            
PROGS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT TO DESTABILIZE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR             
THIS BOUNDARY. SATELLITE/PROG COMBINATION REVEALS MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS           
FORMING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA AHEAD OF WEAK 500                 
MILLIBAR VORTICITY. 60 KNOT WIND MAXIMA IN NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD CARRY           
THIS MINOR VORT BY AFTERNOON TO VICINITY OF BOUNDARY. SO WILL                   
INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN            
PORTION OF CWA.                                                                 
IN THE FAR TERM...OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTS TO A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW               
WITH MANY IMPLICATIONS FOR CWA. PROGS SIGNAL SEVERAL DECENT                     
DISTURBANCES IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.            
850/1000 MILLIBAR LEVELS FEED VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH MODERATE            
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL JET INTO REGION WITH TIME STARTING TONIGHT.                 
PROGGED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES TO SET             
UP SHOP OVER CWA DURING CONVECTIVE EVENTS LEADING TO CONCERN FOR                
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM TONIGHT INTO                   
TUESDAY. WHILE RIVERS OVER CWA IN DECENT SHAPE...GROUND REMAINS                 
FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINY WEATHER...SO RUNOFF WILL BE HIGH             
EVEN WITH MODERATE RAINFALL. WITH NOSE OF 30 TO 40+ KNOT 850 MILLIBAR           
JET POINTING TO CWA OVERNIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY           
RAINFALL IN FORECAST. WILL ALSO ISSUE ESF TO RAISE AWARENESS OF                 
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER CWA. GUIDANCE                     
TEMPERATURES APPEARS TO BE BALL PARK...THOUGH CLOUDS AND DURATION OF            
PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT FINAL READINGS. IN ADDITION...WITH SPC               
INCLUSION OF MUCH OF CWA FOR MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE IN DAY 2...                
WILL ENHANCE WORDING OF ZONES FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY             
AND MONDAY NIGHT.                                                               
COORDINATION WITH GRB/ARX.                                                      
.MKX...NONE                                                                     
$$                                                                              
ZAJDEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
1010 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                     
LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ARE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA           
AND THIS FEATURE IS ESSENTIALLY A NON-ENTITY NOW AS FAR AS ECFL IS              
CONCERNED. WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE CWA IS SEPARATING             
BUILDING HIGH PRESS TO THE NORTH FROM DEARTH OF FLOW TO THE SOUTH.              
WATERVAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH RUC UPPER STREAMLINE/VORT ANALYSES             
SHOWS A WEAK SPIN CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH A PAIR OF               
WEAK VORT AXES. THE FIRST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH THE SECOND...A              
LITTLE STRONGER...ON IT'S HEELS FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLE ACROSS               
CENTRAL GEORGIA.                                                                
BASED ON MORNING RAOBS...MUCH OF THE CWA IS ONCE AGAIN FACED WITH               
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN H90-H65...ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN             
IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR UVM TODAY. ALSO...AS NOTED BY TBW THERE IS                
SOME ONGOING "SPUDETTE' CONVECTION OFF THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL             
SERVE TO PUSH MESO BOUNDARIES ONSHORE AND ENHANCE WCSB CONVERGENCE.             
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER COMPARED TO SAT AFTERNOON.                    
AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE THREATS GO...H50 TEMPS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY               
WARM...NOW ABOUT 7.5C...SO HAIL NOT AS GREAT OF A CONCERN...HOWEVER             
PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE TO WET MICROBURSTS.              
STILL...IT APPEARS MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL BE NEEDED TO             
REALLY GET THINGS GOING. WEAK NW-N STEERING FLOW 5-10KT SO MENTION              
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOKS OK.                                     
MARINE...MAY DO SOME MINOR TWEAKING TO INITIAL WIND DIRECTION PER               
CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS...BUT OTHERWISE THE CWF LOOKS FINE.                      
THANKS TBW/JAX FOR COORD.                                                       
.MLB...NONE.                                                                    
PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI                                                       
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                     
POSSIBILITY OF LK BREEZE CONVERGENCE SHOWERS IS MAIN CONCERN                    
OVERALL PICTURE FM 12Z RAOBS AND WV LOOP THIS MORNING FEATURES FAST             
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING FM HUDSON BAY UPR LOW EXTENDING NW INTO BERING            
SEA. PARADE OF SHRTWVS AND SPEED MAXES ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS BROAD               
WRLY FLOW WITH PRIMARY SHRTWV TROUGH OVR MT...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER H7            
SHRTWV OVR NRN MN. COUPLE OF 60KT H5 SPEED MAXES ALSO NOTED...ONE               
WITH AN AXIS FM CNTRL MN INTO CNTRL WI...WITH THE OTHER FM OR INTO              
NRN MT. VIS SAT AND SFC OBS SHOWING PATCH OF MID CLOUD RACING ACROSS            
MN ARROWHEAD/WRN LK SUPERIOR...WITH 88D FM DLH SHOWING WDLY SCT                 
LIGHT SHRA. ANOTHER BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO SHOWS UP FM SD                
INTO CNTRL WI...ALONG H5 SPEED MAX AND H85 WARM FRONT...MPX 88D DOES            
SHOW SOME -SHRA WITH THESE FEATURE AS WELL.                                     
AS WEAK H7 SHRTWV AND AREA OF H85-H7 MOISTURE (PER 12Z INL RAOB)                
PUSHES ACROSS FA ERLY THIS AFTN...ONLY EXPECT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS            
KEWEENAW AS RUC/ETA SHOW H85-H7 RH DECREASE BLO 70 PCT BY 18Z.                  
YET...12Z ETA PRINTS OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND                
MICHIGAN BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE (SRN MQT INTO ALG/DLT) BTWN                    
18Z-21Z. BOTH ETA/RUC DO GENERATE HEALTHY H95-H92 CONVERGENCE ALONG             
THE BOUNDARY...BUT LITTLE ABOVE...SUGGESTING VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION            
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY WARMING TEMPS AT H5 THROUGH            
THE DAY WHICH ONLY GIVES LI/S OF -1 TO +1 AND SBCAPES FM                        
300-500J/KG...BEST OVR NRN DLT COUNTY. WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A              
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED SHRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE ZONES IN                          
MQT/MNM/ALG/DLT/SCFT COUNTIES...BUT ATTM WITH H85-H5 LAPSE RATES                
BECOMING MORE STABLE THROUGH THE DAY AND KI/S BTWN 25-30 WILL NOT               
INCLUDE ANY THUNDER ATTM. UPR MI UNDER LFQ OF JET STREAK PUSHING                
INTO NRN LAKES AND VERY WEAK H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO            
HELP TO DETER THUNDER THREAT WITH MARGINAL SB INSTABILITY.                      
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS AND WINDS...MAINLY TO FRESHEN LAKE             
BREEZE WORDING.                                                                 
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1115 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                     
THE LATEST SURFACE CHART SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE                
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE             
SATELLITE SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND EAST              
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVANCING ACROSS WISCONSIN AND              
MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE                 
PLAIN STATES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITH             
RESPECT TO CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.                                   
THE LATEST RUC AND MESO ETA DATA SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO                 
REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THIS             
EVENING. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALSO TRIES TO BUILD BACK ACROSS               
THE UPPER LAKES WITH SLOW HEIGHT RISES THIS AFTERNOON. QVECTOR RESPONSE         
TO THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING PATTERNS...SHOWS DIVERGING QVECTORS            
IN ALL LEVELS BETWEEN 850 MB AND 300 MB ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN                   
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. QVECTORS BEGIN TO CONVERGENCE OVER EAST UPPER            
MICHIGAN AFTER 18Z AS A WEAK 500 MB VORT MOVES OVER WESTERN UPPER               
MICHIGAN. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH                
850/500 MB AND 700/300 MB MOISTURE UNDER 50 PERCENT. SURFACE DEW                
POINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND            
4C. 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6 C/KM SO EXPECT SOME CU              
THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO                  
MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE              
AROUND 9C THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL MENTION HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID            
70S.                                                                            
.APX...NONE.                                                                    
SWR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                     
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR TODAY IS CHANCE OF PCPN AND ITS EFFECT ON                 
TEMPS. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT                  
EXTENDING FM CNTRL SD TO ERN NEB AT 850 MB. AREA OF TSTMS OVER SD               
APPEAR TO BE LINKED TO BEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG THE WARM                   
FRONT...AND IS APPARENT ON 310K-315K SFCS ON LATEST RUC. SOME                   
HINT OF S/W TROF FM CNTRL ND TO WRN SD AS WELL IN WATER VAPOR.                  
RUC BRINGS BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN INTO 00Z. WITH              
ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING...APPEARS THIS WILL JUST CONTINUE TO EXPAND            
EWD WITH TIME...AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER        
AND RAIN FALLING INTO RELATIVELY DRY LOW LAYERS WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON            
HIGHS...ESP WEST.                                                               
THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING WITH NEXT SURGE OF WAA              
COMING IN TONIGHT. STGR LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR...AND MODELS           
BRING MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SRN MN 06Z-09Z. IN ADDITION...            
UPPER JET DYNAMICS INCREASE STRONGLY. ATTM..EXPECT MCS TO AFFECT SRN            
MN LATE...PSBL WITH DAMAGING WIND EVENT.                                        
.MSP...NONE.                                                                    
DAVIS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                   
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO                                        
155 PM MDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE THIS PACKAGE POPS AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT              
OVER FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWFA AND THEN PROBABILITY OF                      
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                           
CWFA CURRENTLY ENJOYING A VERY WARM TO HOT FATHER'S DAY WITH                    
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS...NEAR 90                
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND EVEN 70S OVER           
THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN.                                                    
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED AT THIS WRITING JUST SOUTH OF THE                  
SOUTH-CENTRAL BORDER...HOWEVER GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THESE                        
STORMS ARE TO THE EAST AND MAJORITY SHOULD STAY OUT OF                          
ZONES...HOWEVER WILL MONITOR AND INSERT IN ZONES 77/81 IF                       
NECESSARY...OTHERWISE JUST SOME FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS ALONG WITH SOME            
RELATIVELY MINOR VIRGA NOTED OVER REMAINDER OF CWFA. RUC40                      
INDICATING HEALTHY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE                
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND WILL INSERT IN            
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.                                                            
12Z/17TH ETA INDICATES THAT ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO THE                
CWFA'S SOUTH THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE                         
DOWNSLOPING/DRY AIR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF MONDAY.             
HOWEVER...BY 06Z/TUESDAY ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RIDES IN WITH FRONT               
THAT IS PROJECTED TO RUN FROM NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY INTO KIOWA                
COUNTY BY 06Z TUESDAY AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF                    
SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z TUESDAY.                                              
THIS UPSLOPE/INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO             
REMAIN OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR QUITE A               
WHILE AS AVN KEEPS IT THROUGH FRIDAY AND MRF HINTS AT ADEQUATE                  
MOISTURE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.                                             
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HOLDS OFF THE LONGEST OVER THE FAR WESTERN                 
ZONES (ZONES 60 AND 61) AND WILL KEEP THIS REGION DRY THROUGH                   
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE ISOLATED POPS...SOME QUITE STRONG...ON TAP LATE             
MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY INTO KIOWA               
COUNTY AND THEN WIDELY SCATTERED POPS ON TAP TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED             
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS PVA DISTURBANCE ROTATES ACROSS.                           
EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO RUN A CATEGORY OR TWO                    
HIGHER THAN NOTED ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON                
MONDAY A CATEGORY OR SO COOLER COOLER THAN VALUES NOTED ON FATHER'S             
DAY SUNDAY.                                                                     
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT BY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES            
ON TUESDAY TO RUN SOME 15F TO 20F COOLER OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF             
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LESS DRAMATIC                  
COOLING SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND WESTERN CWFA'S             
MOUNTAINS.                                                                      
FOR THE EXTENDED...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AS STATED EARLIER               
MODELS WANT TO KEEP DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO PLAY INTO THE              
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY ROTATING ACROSS                   
PERIODICALLY SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ALONG WITH NEAR                 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR             
POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DUE TO LOWER PROJECTED           
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.  AT THIS TIME...THE MRF INDICATES THAT             
THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE OVER             
FAR WEST TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.                                                  
.PUB...NONE.                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE AGAIN TIMING/COVERAGE/CHANCES OF            
SHRA/TSRA INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL.                             
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE ZONAL FLOW ACRS NRN                        
PORTION OF CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS UPSTREAM FROM PAC NW             
AND NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...WEAK RDG                
EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA INTO LWR MI WHILE DEVELOPING LO PRES WAS                 
LOCATED OVER WY INTO THE HI PLAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM                  
THE LO ACRS NEB/SODAK AND IA/MN BORDERS INTO SRN WI. TO THE                     
NORTH...BROAD AREA OF WAA AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT (300K-305K PER               
ETA) INTO THE UPR MS VALLEY TOWARD THE WRN GRT LAKES WAS SUPPORTING             
SOME -SHRA OR SPRINKLES INTO NRN WI. REMNANTS OF MORNING SODAK MCS              
HAD DRIFTED INTO SW MN WITH MAINLY SHRA. TO THE SOUTH...LLVL THETAE             
ADVECTION WAS INCREASING ACRS CNTRL PLAINS INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA.             
TONIGHT...EXPECT AREA OF RAIN FROM MN TO MOVE INTO WI AND WEAKEN AS             
MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH WHERE INCREASING LLJ TO 50 KTS            
AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IMPINGE ON BNDRY. WITH SUCH STRONG                
INFLOW... 850-300 THICKNESS AND CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST CONVECTION              
WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE SE OR EVEN SOUTH INTO IA DESPITE WRLY              
MID LVL FLOW. AS A RESULT MOISTURE FLOW FURTHER NORTH OF THE WARM               
FRONT INTO WI TOWARD UPR MI WILL BE LIMITED. 12Z ETA HAS RETURNED TO            
IDEA OF BRINGING NRN BATCH OF PCPN FROM WI MAINLY THROUGH SRN                   
PORTION OF UPR MI. ACCORDINGLY...WL GO WITH LIKELY POPS OVER THE                
SOUTH AND TAPER TO CHANCE OVER THE NORTH.                                       
MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY AS PAC NW SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD THE               
NRN PLAINS WITH DOWNSTREAM HGT RISES INTO THE GRT LAKES. WARM FRONT             
WILL ALSO LIFT TOWARD THE AREA WITH SFC LO MOVING NE THROUGH MN. WL             
KEEP LIKELY POPS GIVEN SUPPORT FROM UPR LVL DIV WITH RRQ OF JET AND             
MID LVL SHRWV. CAPES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG ARE POISED ALONG AND SOUTH OF            
THE FRON WITH H8 TD TO AROUND 11C. MDLS DIFFER ON STRENGTH OF MID               
LVL SPEED MAX. ETA SHOWS H5 WINDS TO NEARLY 90 KTS BY 18Z TUES OVER             
UPR MI...LIKELY FROM CONVECTIVELY STRENGTHENED VORT.                            
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT ENOUGH DEEP LYR AND 0-3KM SHEAR ALONG WITH                
STRONG SRH (AOA 500 M2/S2) VCNTY OF FRONT FOR RISK OF STRONG TO                 
SEVERE CONVECTION. LACK OF INSOLATION AND MORE STABLE LLVLS WITH                
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY LIMIT DAMAGING WIND THREAT DESPITE               
VERY STRONG WIND PROFILE. WHILE WBZ AND FRZ LVL HGTS CLIMB TO NEAR              
11.5K AND 12.5K FEET VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS MAY SUPPORT SOME LARGE                
HAIL. ETA 2M TEMPS SHOOT UP TO NEAR 80F BY EVENING WITH WARM FRONT              
LIFTING NORTH...BUT WL GO CLOSER TO FWC VALUES...AS ANY CLEARING                
SHOULD BE WELL AFTER MAX HEATING.                                               
MONDAY NIGHT...MDLS (PARTICULARLY ETA) ARE RELUCTANT TO DEVELOP                 
CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT AS STRENGTHENING LO LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO            
ONTARIO. CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LINGER AOA 1000 J/KG.                  
EXPECT ENOUGH MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT TO SET              
OFF AT LEAST SCT TSRA/SHRA EVEN THOUGH UPR LVL SUPPORT AND SYNOPTIC             
SCALE LIFT TAPER OFF.  STRONG DRY ADVECTION TAKES OVER OVERNIGHT                
WITH FROPA ALONG WITH VERY STRONG QDIV...LEADING TO PARTIAL CLEARING.           
TUESDAY...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH WRLY H8              
WINDS TO AROUND 40 KTS DURING THE MORNING. H8 TEMPS NEAR 8C ALONG               
WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO CNTRL SUPPORT READINGS ABV FWC VALUES.                
EXTENDED...MRF/ECMWF/UKMET AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN REASONABLE                      
AGREEMENT. MRF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER WITH H5 TROF AND NOT AS COOL            
WITH H8 TEMPS WITH FRONT DROPPING TOWARD THE GRT LAKES ON WED. QG               
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME -SHRA INTO AREA                
LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WED...PARTICULARLY IF TIMING SLOWS ENOUGH TO               
ARRIVE DURING MAX HEATING. EXPECT WARMING TREND WITH BUILDING HGTS              
THU-SUN AS MID LVL RDG BUILDS TOWARD AREA AND WEAK SFC RDG LINGERS              
ACRS THE WRN/CNTRL LAKES.                                                       
.MQT...NONE.                                                                    
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
307 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2001                                                      
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CONVECTIVE CHANCE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY               
NIGHT WITH EVOLVING WARM SECTOR AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.                       
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS IOWA WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING             
2500J/KG.  RUC2 ALSO PLACES MOST OF IA UNDER A STRONG 100J/KG                   
CIN CAP. CAP WEAKENS NORTHEAST BUT CAPES ARE 500 OR LESS OVER WI.               
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO BOUNDARIES. FIRST ALONG KMLI-KAEL-KFSD               
LINE WITH INSTABILITY SOUTH OF IT AND SOUTHERLY WIND. SECOND CAPPED             
AIR MASS OVER KS/NEB/WRN MO.  BOTH ARE EVOLVING NORTHWARD. RADAR AND            
SATELLITE INDICATE ELEVATED SHOWERS OVER MN MOVING EAST. LIGHTNING              
STRIKES NEAR KOMA AND WRN IA WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION IN AREA OF LOW-           
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SURFACE-BASED STORMS NOW ERUPTING NEAR KABR              
WITH SEWRD MOTION.                                                              
I AM QUITE PLEASED WITH AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS TODAY...WHICH ARE QUITE               
SIMILAR AS THEY HAVE BEEN LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE ETA                      
TOTALLY MISSED THE SD CONVECTION THIS MORNING...OLDER RUNS HAD IT.              
MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 1MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS                   
CENTERED ON KOMA. AS PRESSURE FALL IN PLAINS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND               
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE OVERNIGHT AND FIRE INTO NORTHERN SURFACE             
BOUNDARY AND UPSLOPE OVER FRONT.  850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS                  
CONVERGING RIGHT INTO SOUTHERN MN AT 00Z AND THIS THEN SHIFTS                   
EASTWARD INTO FORECAST AREA. WITH 2500-300J/KG CAPES RUNNING OVER               
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS AREA...MCS WILL EVOLVE FROM A KFSD ORIGIN               
POINT. CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST SOUTHEAST MOTION BUT FACTORING IN                
EVOLVING LLJ TO NORTH...IT MAY BE MORE EAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE                  
WATER NEAR 1.5 IN SOURCE AIR MASS...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD                    
WATCH FOR SERN MN KRST-KAUM COUNTIES THAT HAVE HAD PROBLEMS LATELY.             
SOME SUPPORT IN ETA FOR A POSSIBLE SECOND CLUSTER FURTHER NORTH OF              
THIS WHICH IS NOW GROWING NEAR KABR. MUST ALSO WATCH SURFACE BOUNDARY           
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION NERN IA/SWRN WI/SERN MN. 0-6KM BULK                
SHEAR IS 50KTS AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS MAIN               
THREAT FOR SEVERE IS WEST OF MISS RIVER WITH MCS AS IT MOVES IN.                
APPEARS IT IS MAINLY HAIL/WIND BUT 0-3KM HELICITY IS AROUND 200 IN              
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL RAIN MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH ALL THESE FACTORS.            
WARM FRONT SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD MONDAY AFTER MORNING CONVECTION               
PULLS EAST AND AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.                 
ETA/AVN PULL IN A STRONG CAP AND WARM LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO 18C.            
WILL BRING AN AFTERNOON BREAK INTO MONDAY PERIOD WITH STRONG SWRLY              
FLOW...WARM SURFACE HIGHS VIA MIXING...AND LOWERING OF TSRA CHANCES             
FURTHER EAST OF COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT SHOULD LIE ALONG A KMSP-KSUX             
LINE AT 18Z. THEN...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE QUITE LARGE BY 00Z WHEN               
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SPEED MAX ALOFT MOVES IN WITH 60+ KTS AT 500 MB.           
0-6KM BULK SHEAR SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPES OF 2500-3500J/KG IN              
PLACE OVER CWA. VGP/BRN SHEAR LOOK GOOD FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT            
CURVATURE IS NOT STRONG IN UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPH. SPC HAS A MOD              
RISK FOR THIS PERIOD AND MAIN THREAT IS VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND.               
STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELL SPLITERS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD FORM             
IF DEVIANT MOTION OCCURS OFF HODOGRAPH...ESPECIALLY IN LARGE CAPE               
ENVIRONMENT. CAP IS HUGE IN ETA AND IT DOESNT CONVECT THE AIR MASS              
DUE TO WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE              
FORECAST AREA. I AM IGNORING THIS FOR NOW BUT THESE FACTORS ALONG               
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER JET TO THE NORTH COULD POSSIBLY LIMIT OUTCOME            
MONDAY EVENING. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS               
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.                                   
TUESDAY IS A MUCH DIFFERENT AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WITH THE                   
SOUTHERN PORTIONS STILL NEAR FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN.  IT WILL               
BE A COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION DAY. COLD POOL AND UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS           
WI FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS.                          
EXTENDED...MODELS AGREE ON DRY PERIOD WITH GRADUAL WARMING.                     
COORDINATED WITH MKX/GRB/MPX/DMX.                                               
.LSE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SERN MN TONIGHT...MNZ079-086-087-094-095.              
DB                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi