SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ                                             
930 AM MST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH CALIFORNIA THIS              
MORNING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN                
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN ARIZONA           
INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME             
WARMING TO THE AREA DURING MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE             
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT              
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.                                         
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
RUC HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON OVERALL PATTERN AT 12Z WITH CURRENT MOIST              
TONGUE N-S FROM MEXICAN BRDR UP THROUGH SRN GILA CO THROUGH NRN AZ.             
SECONDARY LOW/VORT MAX IDENTIFIED ALONG BAJA COAST AT THE SAME TIME             
WITH INCREASING MEAN RH TO THE SE AND E OF PHX.                                 
PHX HAS ALREADY HAD  1.81 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL THRU 830 AM AS               
FIRST SURGE LIFTED OUT.  SNOW HAS STARTED IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF               
SRN GILA AND UPDATES WIBIS TO COVER SHORT TERM CHANGES.  TEMPS TO               
REMAIN STEADY OR EVEN FALL A BIT IN THOSE HIGHER ELEVS AS PCPN IS               
STILL SHOWERY. AN INCH OR 2 SHOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE GLOBE-MIAMI                
TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICS MOVE                     
ACROSS SE ARIZONA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PHOENIX SOUNDING                  
PUT FREEZING LEVEL AT 850 MB THIS MRNG.                                         
AVN/ETA STILL INSISTS ON A SLOW PROGRESSION OF MAIN UPR TROF. NEW               
ETA TURNS OUR 700MB WINDS TO THE WEST BTWN 12Z AND 18Z AND DRIER                
AIRMASS OVERALL TOMORROW.  SIPPLE                                               
N                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   az                                                           

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
910 PM MST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
REPORTS FROM SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) ARE LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING             
SNOW...WITH RAIN STILL OCCURRING BELOW 7500FT. MONDAY ACCUMULATIONS             
INCLUDE 6 INCHES SILVERTON...8-10 INCHES MONTICELLO. 00Z ETA/NGM                
SHOWING 700MB WARM ADVECTION SOUTH...ENDING AFTER 06Z WITH GOOD SNOW            
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING BEFORE SUNRISE (06-12Z).                                
DUMBBELL LOW...IN EASTERN NV AND NORTH BAJA...SLOWLY PROGRESSING. IR            
ENHANCEMENT TO THE NE OF BOTH OF THESE LOW CENTERS...THOUGH TOPS ARE            
COOLING AT 03Z OVER SW COLORADO WITH A GOOD SHRA HERE IN GJT.                   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS BEST ENHANCED TOPS TO TRANSLATE OVER THE             
FA LATE TONIGHT.  02Z RUC SHOWS A 700MB CIRCULATION CLOSING OFF OVER            
THE 4-CORNERS BY 09Z THAT SHOULD HELP WITH GOOD ACCUMULATION. CONCERN           
IS LOWER ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS CORTEZ AND DURANGO...MAY NOT COOL                 
ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL LET                
VARIOUS SOUTHERN WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES RIDE.                                  
700MB TROF PASSES BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH 500 MB TROPA BY 00Z.                      
ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEN SHIFT TO NORTHERN SAN JUANS AND CENTRAL                 
MOUNTAINS.  HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THERE.                   
.GJT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR CO ZONES 17 18 19 21 22 23              
         AND UT ZONES 22 AND 28.                                                
       SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR CO ZONE 20 AND UT ZONE 29.                     
RAMEY                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
855 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
WILL BE UPDATING FOR SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT ACROSS              
CWA AND TO BREAK OFF AREAS W OF HAVANA/SPI TO HAVE MILDER LOWS NEAR 50.         
FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL UPDATE PIA GROUP FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TUE.             
UNSEASONABLY MILD HIGHS TODAY REACHED AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL IL               
AFTER EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 30S...AROUND 40 W OF THE IL RIVER.              
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS MUCH OF IL AT 0245Z THANKS TO STRONG              
H5 RIDGE IN PLACE JUST EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE               
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING S ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS              
TO THE GULF. 8 PM TEMPS IN THE MID 50S FROM LINCOLN E AND LOWER 60S             
FROM SPI/PIA WEST. S WINDS 6-12 MPH HAVE HELPED ELEVATE DEWPOINTS               
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S LATE TODAY.                                        
ILX 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING RH FIELDS ABOVE 75% FROM 925-800 MB.                   
UPSTREAM...IR SAT LOOP SHOWING PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM             
3-6 KFT TRACKING NE ACROSS S MO TOWARD STL. RUC 850 MB RH INCREASES             
TO 50-70% ACROSS CWA THROUGH DAWN AND COULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES             
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CWA OVERNIGHT AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE IN.                   
FWC/FAN CLOSE WITH LOWS AROUND 50 WHILE COOLER 2M ETA NEAR 45.                  
COOLER 2M ETA HAS VERIFED BEST PAST 3 NIGHTS. CURRENT LOWS OF MID               
40S NE CWA AND UPPER 40S SW SEEM OK GIVEN INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND               
PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARRIVING. SSE WINDS 6-12 MPH TO                 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SFC HIGH                 
EASING SLOWLY E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH               
ANCHORED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL BREAK OFF 4 COUNTIES W OF                   
HAVANA/SPI FOR MILDER LOWS AROUND 50 WHERE S WINDS A BIT STRONGER               
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S.                                         
.ILX...                                                                         
IL...NONE.                                                                      
HUETTL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1015 PM EST MON MAR 6 2000                                                      
TEMPERATURES WILL REQUIRE SOME TWEAKING THIS EVENING. ACROSS                    
SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA...SLACK GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO            
SLIDE TO NEAR 40. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE NORTH STRENGTHENING                    
GRADIENT IS SLOWING TEMPERATURE FALL. EXPECT GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN             
ACROSS SOUTH PUTTING AN END TO TEMPERATURE FALL AND CONTINUE ACROSS             
NORTH. SO...WILL RAISE MINS ACROSS NORTH AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTH.                
00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS TONGUE OF LOW TD DEPRESSIONS STRETCHING               
FROM ILX SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL. 12Z NCEP SUITE AND 18Z               
MESOETA MODEL SEEMED INTENT ON DEVELOPING HIGH 850 MB RH AROUND 12Z             
TOMORROW MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. NOW 00Z RUN OF RUC              
MODEL WHILE STILL INDICATING LOBE OF HIGHER RH TO CROSS CWA AROUND              
12Z...SUGGESTS RH FIELD TO BE CONSIDERABLE LESS THAN EARLIER MODEL              
RUNS. GIVEN LACK OF ANY CLOUDS AT 850 MB NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS               
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT FORECAST. CI                  
STREAMING ACROSS MN AND WI NOW WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT...AND             
COULD LEAD TO A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY PERIODS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN            
THIN ENOUGH TO KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR GOING OVERNIGHT.                               
.DTX...NONE.                                                                    
OKEEFE                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
935 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
WEAK TROF CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WILL BE OUT OF CWA BY THIS            
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...              
BRINGING MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD SEE A FEW              
HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKS               
OKAY SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.                              
CWF...CURRENT FCST LOOKS GOOD. EXPECT ONLY MINOR CHGS IF ANY. WINDS             
ARE BCMG MORE NLY ACRS SC WATERS THIS MORN. RUC MODEL SHOWS WINDS               
VEERING TO N ACRS ENTIRE WATERS BY 18Z...AND TREND OF WINDS BCMG NE             
DURG THE AFTN SEEMS RSNBLE WITH RDG AXIS RMNG W OF WATERS.                      
.CHS...                                                                         
SC...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
JH/JAC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC                                            
925 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
UPPER RIDGE STILL DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EAST. SURFACE               
HIGH WITH DRY AIR OVER CAE CWA TODAY. RUCII SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE                 
STILL WEST OF AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED. RUCII             
AND MESOETA FORECAST RAOBS GIVE CAE A HIGH OF 77 TODAY AND THIS IS              
STILL IN ORDER WITH THE MORNING FORECAST OF 76 AT CAE AND 78 AT AGS.            
EASTERN PART OF CWA MAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS A TAD COOLER IN THE                
MIDDLE 70S BUT CSRA IN UPPER 70S. SO NO SIGFNT CHANGES EXPECTED.                
.CAE..NONE.                                                                     
TTH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST                 
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
1027 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000                                                      
SFC LOW PRES STRENGTH OVER W SD THIS MORNING UNDERESTIMATED BY THE              
LATEST RUC AND ETA MDLS. THEREFORE...THE WINDS ARE UNDERDONE. WITH A            
TIGHTER SFC PRES GRAD AND STRONG ABOVE THE SFC MIXING WINDS...THE               
WINDS WILL BE IN THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS            
NE SD AND WC MN. AS THE SFC LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES NE INTO ND THROUGH            
THE DAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME SW LATER THIS                      
AFTERNOON. WITH LOW MEAH RH THROUGH THE DAY AND LITTLE IF ANY CLOUDS            
ON SATELLITE...RECORD HIGHS ARE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA                
TODAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO GO WITH SUNNY SKIES...INCREASE WINDS AND             
HIGH TEMPS.                                                                     
.ABR...WIND ADVISORY...NE SD AND BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE MN...REST OF            
       TODAY.                                                                   
MOHR                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
925 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
A FEW CHANGES ARE NECESSARY FOR THE UPDATE TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT                 
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. 03Z SFC             
MOISTURE ANALYSIS INDICATES 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG A                         
P07-KSJT-KMWL LINE AND MOVING STEADILY NW. WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN            
THE MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION CURRENT FCST LOWS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES            
TOO COLD. WILL GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE CURRENT PKG TO ACCOUNT FOR               
THIS TREND. IN ADDITION A FEW LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING ALONG A STRONG              
DEWPOINT GRADIENT ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. U/A CHARTS INDICATE THIS              
AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DECENT JET IN THE H5-H2 LAYER. 00Z                
SOUNDING FROM KAMA INDICATES NO CAP AND SOME INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH              
H8 MOISTURE LACKING WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT A 20 PERCENT POP FOR               
WESTERN ZONES AS RUC IS INDICATING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY                    
PERSIST.                                                                        
TUE COULD BE QUITE WINDY WHICH WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE DRY FUELS                    
AND INCR THE GRASSFIRE DANGER. I MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A SPS LATER                
TNGT TO ADDRESS HIGH FIRE THREAT AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT            
BLDU. WILL WAIT UNTIL NEW MODEL DATA AND MAKE FINAL DECISION.                   
NEW ZFP TO BE ISSUE AROUND 945 PM.                                              
.LBB...NONE.                                                                    
TAYLOR                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
235 PM CST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
WATER VAPOR INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN ATTM WITH                 
LEAD SHRTWV TROF NEARING BAJA. RUC INDICATES AN ASSOCD STRONG                   
UPSTREAM 130KT JET LOCATED OFF CA COAST. SFC DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL           
MSTR IS IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF WITH DWPNT STILL IN L50S. BACKING             
WINDS TONIGHT TO ALLOW MSTR TO MOVE W TO THE MTNS. 40-50KT LLJ TO               
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WITH SOME WAA WILL KEEP A MENTION OF POPS                   
OVERNIGHT. REAL THREAT WILL BE TMW AS AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHRTWV TROF           
MOVES INTO W TX. POPS IN WRN AREAS WILL BE MAINLY EARLY AS                      
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WLY COMPONENT TO PRECLUDE POPS W OF PECOS IN              
THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE PECOS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF           
DRYLINE AND HEATING ALONG WITH SHRTWV ENERGY WILL ALLOW SB PARCELS TO           
REACH LFC. QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY WILL IT ALL COME TOGETHER. NO              
REAL SURPRISE THAT BEST CHANCES WILL BE FAR ERN AREAS AS THESE SRN              
STREAM SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE IF ANYTHING AND DESPITE RECENT             
UNUSUALLY EARLY SEASON W TX SVR CONVECTIVE EVENTS IT IS HARD TO HOLD            
MSTR IN PLACE AS FAR W AS KMAF IN MARCH. WILL LEAVE IN POPS                     
WRN/CENTRAL PB TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLY AFTERNOON THREAT AND WILL WORD              
SVR NE CWFA TMW WITH IMPRESSIVE VWS. A MORE LIKELY THREAT ACROSS CWFA           
IS WIND. DEPENDING ON RAIN COULD BE ANOTHER "DUSTER" TMW AFTERNOON...           
ESPECIALLY IF ETA VERIFIES WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVING ACROSS KMAF. NO              
REAL CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED AS LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY             
IN MODEL FCST.  COORD WITH KSJT.                                                
MAF  56/75/40/71 1200                                                           
LSA  55/72/39/70 1200                                                           
E41  57/76/41/71 1200                                                           
6R6  60/77/45/74 1200                                                           
MRF  45/68/32/64 1200                                                           
CNM  53/71/39/68 1200                                                           
.MAF...                                                                         
TX...NONE.                                                                      
NM...NONE.                                                                      
GPM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                                         
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX                                  
937 AM CST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
VAD WINDS AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIFORM ALMOST UNIDIRECTIONAL              
WINDS UP TO 500 MB.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWS A ILL DEFINED BROAD               
LOW ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO.  THIS MAY HAVE SET OFF THE                 
SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH.  THE MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW HAS            
A VORT LOBE SWINGING THROUGH AT 27 KTS.  ASSUMING NO CHANGES IN THE             
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE VORT LOBE WILL SWING THROUGH TEXAS DURING THE DAY            
TUESDAY.  APPEARS THE WINDS WILL STAY UNIDIRECTIONAL PUMPING (OR AT             
LEAST KEEPING) HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL IN PLACE FOR THE             
ONSLAUGHT OF THE DRY LINE/NEXT COLD FRONT. LATEST RUC SHOWS                     
ISENTROPIC LIFTING CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN               
GOING NEUTRAL OR SINKING OVER WESTERN MOST COUNTIES LATE AFTERNOON.             
CURRENT FORECAST GOOD TO GO.                                                    
.EWX...NONE.                                                                    
06/08/CA                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
954 AM EST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
HI PRESS RIDGE TO CREST ACRS THE FA INTO OVRNITE TONITE. WK CF TO               
DROP DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TONITE.                                           
09Z RUC SHOWS NW SFC FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY (STRONGEST ON THE VT                 
SIDE) WITH TEMPS GETTING UP INTO THE U20S (IN EXTREME NE VT) AND INTO           
THE U30S IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS SEEMS A TAD ON THE COOL SIDE             
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS. RUC ALSO SHOWS JUST SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE                 
MOVING DOWN ACRS EASTERN CANADA TODAY...DRY BLO THAT.                           
SAT PIX SHOW THE CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE MOVING SE ACRS              
ONT AND WESTERN QUE ATTM. THESE CLDS SHUD CONTINUE TO THIN AS THEY              
MOVE INTO THE SFC RIDGE...BUT THEY MAY START TO IMPACT THE ST LAW VLY           
BY AROUND 20Z AND THE ADIRONDACKS/CHAMP VLY BY AROUND 23Z. LOWER                
CLDS CURRENTLY ACRS CENTRAL QUE APPEAR TO BE SHRINKING WITH TIME                
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF PESKY LOW CLDS STILL HANGING                
TUFF ACRS EXTREME NE VT ATTM...BUT THESE CLDS SHUD DISSIPATE BY ZONE            
ISSUANCE.                                                                       
H85 WAA TO TAKE PLACE (AND INCREASE WITH TIME) ACRS THE FA THRU 12Z             
TUE. MID-LVL MOISTURE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE FA FROM              
THE NW BY LATER TONITE...BUT DEEPER LYR MOISTURE (AND ANY PCPN) TO              
STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER.                                                       
HAVE BUMPED TODAY/S MAX TEMPS UP A LIL ON THE VT SIDE BASED ON                  
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER (IN SRN VT) AND WIND            
SPEEDS (ACRS EASTERN/SRN VT) BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL.                   
REMAINDER OF CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST PURELY COSMETIC.                         
WORK ZONES OUT. FINAL ZFP AFTER QUICK LOOK AT LATEST OBS AND LAMP               
DATA.                                                                           
.BTV...NONE.                                                                    
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA                        
915 PM PST MON MAR 6 2000                                                       
SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT            
UPSTREAM SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 135W. UPPER RIDGE AXIS AHEAD OF              
THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE NORCAL COAST ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH                  
CLOUDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE FA TONIGHT AND WITH THE             
COOL AIR SITUATED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND GOOD RADIATIONAL                
COOLING POTENTIAL...FROST IS OF CONCERN.                                        
SATELLITE AND METARS INDICATING SOME AREAS OF BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS              
LINGERING OVER THE FA THIS EVENING. THE RUC FORECASTS A LAYER                   
OF HIGH RH FROM 850 TO AROUND 700 MB THROUGH 06Z THEN DEPICTS DRYING.           
CURRENT IR IMAGERY TREND SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. MODEL RH CROSS SECTIONS            
AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM SUGGEST HIGH CLOUDS MOVING             
OVER THE FA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WITH THIS SCENARIO THE RADIATIONAL                 
COOLING CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY IDEAL THROUGHOUT THE SJV ALL           
NIGHT BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE SJV RANGING FROM THE MID 30S           
TO LOW 40S A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DIP TO ABOUT 32                 
DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE.                                                         
WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO CLEAN UP SOME EVENING SHOWER REFERENCES             
IN THE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.                                        
.HNX...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN                  
       VALLEY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 900 AM TUESDAY MORNING.             
LINDQUIST                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   ca                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1050 AM EST TUE MAR 7 2000                                                      
...RECORD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN                 
TODAY...                                                                        
BASED ON MORNING SOUNDING FROM DTX...APX...GRB AND ETA/RUC OVER GRR             
CWA... HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 70 OVER MOST OF AREA.                  
ACTUALLY ALL OF ABOVE SOUNDING METHODS SUGGEST NEAR 75... BUT THAT              
SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH GIVEN WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FCST AROUND                
5000 FT. WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNTS BELOW HEIGHT OF INVERSION WILL            
ASSURE GUSTY WINDS TODAY. HOLLAND WAS 20 WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 AT 10               
AM. WITH WINDS FROM SOUTHWEST... AREAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAJECTROY            
OVER LK MI WILL BE COOLER TODAY. MKG FELL TO 50 A FEW HOURS AGO AND             
AT 1030 AM HAD ONLY WARMED BACK TO 54.                                          
THERE IS AN AREA OF SC ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD EDGE OF HIGHER DWPTS                
FROM SFC THROUGH 850 MB.  THAT WAS OVER SE PART OF THE CWA... SOUTH             
OF LANSING. USING THE CU PROCEDURE FROM THE RUC...IT SUGGESTS THAT              
ARE WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SO... LEFT THE                   
BECOMING SUNNY IN THAT AREA.                                                    
BOTTOM LINE... FORECAST RECORD HIGHS / BREEZY / SUNNY / HIGH NEAR               
70.  NEAR THE LAKE SHORE WILL HAVE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 SW LAKE                   
SHORE... NEAR 60 TO MID 60S W AND NW LAKE SHORE OF CWA.                         
.GRR...NONE.                                                                    
WDM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
225 PM MST TUE MAR 7 2000                                                       
TYPICAL WRN SD SPRING STORM CAUSING TYPICAL HEADACHES. BEST THING               
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MDLS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL                
EVOLUTION OF EVENTS. MAIN DIF IS AVN BEING FURTHER NW...THUS WARMER.            
HAVE GONE WITH NGM/ETA SOLNS GIVEN STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT WHICH WOULD             
LIKELY YIELD COOLER TEMPS...AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WITH STRONG             
H2O CONV ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR NE/SD BORDER...AND RUC-PROGGED CAPE                
GREATER THAN 1000...+TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE IN FAR SRN                   
CWA...ALONG AND S OF A IEN TO SFD LINE.                                         
WINTER WX-WISE UPPER VORT WILL EJECT WITH VERY STRONG NEGATIVE                  
TILT OVR CENTRAL PLAINS. UPPER JET STRUCTURE SHOWS TREMENDOUS JET               
DYNAMICS/COUPLING BULLSEYED OVR WRN SD LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. ISENT             
LIFT AROUND N SIDE OF LOW PROGGED TO GO GONZO IN NW SD WED AS WELL.             
THIS LIFT MUST BE STRONG SINCE PERSISTANT WAA AT H7 IS LEADING TO A             
COOLING OF TEMPS AT H7 BY 6 TO 8C. MOISTURE WILL ALSO NOT BE A                  
PROBLEM...AT LEAST NOT AVAILABILITY OF IT. THE ONLY PROBLEM THAT H20            
MAY PRESENT IS THAT THEIR MAY BE TOO MUCH...NOT ALLOWING US TO COOL             
VERY FAST IN WRN SD DURING THE DAY WED...CHANGING PRECIP TO SN.                 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z ETA AND 18Z ETA SHOW PRECIP AT RAP                  
CHANGING BETWEEN 16 AND 18Z. FURTHER W AND HIGHER UP...NE WY...BLK              
HLS...AND FAR NW SD THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CD AIR TO CHANGE TO SNOW             
LATE TONIGHT. IN THESE AREAS WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE WARNINGS FOR               
THESE PERIODS. FURTHER E WHERE TEMPS STILL A QUESTION WILL GO JUST              
WATCH FOR WED/WED EVE. AT RAPO...WITH LOWER LVL WNDS N-NE RATHER                
THAN NW...DOWNSLOPING SHOULDN'T BE A PROBLEM...ALLOWING RAP TO SHARE            
IN SNOWFALL ACCUMS. TOUGHEST CALL THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FAR SRN               
COUNTIES. SUPERIMPOSED ON THE SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30            
TO 40 MPH IN NE WY TO AROUND 60 MPH IN NW SD...CREATING BLIZZARD TO             
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. EXPECT SNOWFALL TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10                 
INCHES IN NE WY TO NW SD...12 TO 24 INCHES IN THE BLK HLS WITH THE              
NRN AND ERN SLOPES FAVORED. FURTHER E IN THE RAP AREA...I WOULD SAY             
THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPS EVENTUALLY THE DECIDING                
FACTOR.                                                                         
IN FAR SW SD HAVE GONE WITH A WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR               
SNOW POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL WINDS. FURTHER E IN SCNTRL SD PRECIP                
SHOULD TURN LATE ENOUGH TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT. NO                   
HILITES IN WESTON CO WY WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL RETARD PRECIP. ALSO IT             
LOOKS AS IF WNDS WONT GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR HIGH WND WARNING TONIGHT              
IN WRN SD...SO WILL CANCEL.                                                     
.UNR...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED MOST OF NE WY AND              
       BLACK HILLS.                                                             
    ...BLIZZARD WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND WED FAR NW SD                          
    ...WND ADVY PART OF NW SD LATE TONIGHT                                      
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AND WED EVE PART OF NW AND WCNTRL SD              
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH WED AFTERNOON AND EVE FAR SW SD                       
BAILEY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sd