AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON PACKAGE                                    
CLOUDS COMING DOWN INTO AREA ONCE AGAIN. BASICALLY SAME PATTERN AS              
LAST FEW DAYS WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS ROTATING N TO S OVER AREA.                 
AGAIN MORE NE AND LESS SW PER STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN. BIG                   
DIFFERNCE IS THIS IS LAST TIME AS MAJOR TROF PUSHES INTO PICTURE                
FROM THE NW.                                                                    
TRENDS OF LAST FEW DAYS OF ETA FASTER THAN AVN STILL HOLDS. NCEP                
SAYS A OTHER MODELS FAVOR SLOWER AVN SO WILL GO THAT WAY WITH UPPER             
TROF AND ASSOCIATED FEATURES. THIS FIGURES WITH A DIGGING FALL                  
LATITUDE TROF WHICH IS USUALLY SLOWER. ALSO IN THIS SITUATION SOME              
LEAD SMALL SCALE FEATURES TO PRODUCE SOME TIMING PROBLEMS. AVN TREND            
OF 24 HOURS AGO TO HAVE CLOSED LOW S OF US STILL HOLDS BUT NOW BY               
12Z MON IT IS NE AR INSTEAD OF SE MO. STILL CLOSE ENOUGH. AVN DIGS A            
SHORT WAVE BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW SO LOOKS LIKE A ROTATING DUMBBELL              
SITUATION BV 12Z TUESDAY WITH SYSTEM UP EAST AND TROF DIGGING IN S              
PLAINS.                                                                         
THIS ALL TRANSLATES INTO COOLEST FALL WX SO FAR COMING UP.                      
IN SHORT TERM AVN PROBABLY TOO HIGH AS USUAL WITH THE COLUM RH                  
TOMORROW EVE, NGM PROBABLY THE BEST. HOWEVER TREND OF ETA NOW TO BE             
SLOWER AND SHOW MORE RH CLOSER TO THE AVN FROM YESTERDAY. SO                    
FORECAST WILL BE SHADED CLOSER TO AVN FOR THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM NEXT               
FEW DAYS. THIS MEANS BEST PRECIP CHANCES SE AND LEAST NW THRU                   
MONDAY.                                                                         
SATL PICS SHOW CLOUDS COMING SE MORE DIURNAL LOOKING AND WITH TROF              
MOVING E THINK WILL SEE LOT LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.                                
ALL MODLES SHOW STRONG OMEGA AND DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER               
ENTIRE AREA BY 00Z. LOOKS LIKE BEST "CHANCE" AREAS TO BE OVER IL                
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN HIGHER POPS TOMORROW NIGHT, ESPECIALLY              
E.                                                                              
ETA AGAIN TOO WARM ON HIGH TEMPS. WILL GO WITH AVN/NGM BLEND.                   
AF                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE CROSS SECTION FROM THE MID POINT OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PEORIA ON              
THE WORKSTATION ETA...MESOSCALE ETA AND RUC40 MODELS SHOW THE                   
FOLLOWING INFORMATION. HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS OVER                     
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...THERE IS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FORECASTED                 
THROUGH 06 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEEN ON THE OMEGA AND VERTICAL           
CIRCULATION FIELDS. THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH               
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL             
FORECAST LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 06 UTC. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 1723 UTC           
SHOW LIGHT WINDS UP TO 850 MB. WILL FORECAST THE WINDS REMAINING                
LIGHT THROUGH 12 UTC.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
.IL... NONE.                                                                    
.IN... NONE.                                                                    
.LK MICH... NONE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC LOW JUST SOUTH OF KMLI EARLY THIS AM TO CONTINUE DROPPING                   
SOUTHEAST TODAY. SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY BEEN NORTH AND EAST OF CWA IN              
ASSOCIATION WITH VORT ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROF. EXPECT SHOWERS TO             
CONTINUE THRU MID MORNING OVER LK MI. HIGHS WED ONLY IN THE MID 50S             
WHICH IS WHERE GUIDANCE IS TODAY...MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER. RIDGE                 
BUILDS ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.             
COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARD REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY 00Z SAT MODELS             
SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT PRECIP INTO WESTERN CWA. GFS THEN                
DEVELOPS MUCH MORE QPF FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER VORT DEVELOPS                 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE SFC LOW WELL TO THE NORTH IN ONTARIO.               
ALL THIS MIND...EXPECT FRIDAY DURING THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY WITH                 
PRECIP KNOCKING ON THE DOOR AT RFD BY LATE PM. THEN SHOWERS                     
OVERNIGHT AND DRYING SAT MORNING AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. COLDEST               
AIR DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS DROP              
TO -6C. SO BY SUNDAY A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN              
CWA WITH LK EFFECT SHOWERS CRANKING UP TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS                    
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN GREAT                
LAKES BY MONDAY. THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW               
MIXED IN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS BY MONDAY. CMS                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE CROSS SECTION FROM THE MID POINT OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO PEORIA ON              
THE WORKSTATION ETA...MESOSCALE ETA AND RUC40 MODELS SHOW THE                   
FOLLOWING INFORMATION. HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY REMAINS OVER                     
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...THERE IS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FORECASTED                 
THROUGH 06 UTC FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEEN ON THE OMEGA AND VERTICAL           
CIRCULATION FIELDS. THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH               
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL             
FORECAST LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 06 UTC. ACARS SOUNDING AT ORD AT 1723 UTC           
SHOW LIGHT WINDS UP TO 850 MB. WILL FORECAST THE WINDS REMAINING                
LIGHT THROUGH 12 UTC.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
.IL... NONE.                                                                    
.IN... NONE.                                                                    
.LK MICH... NONE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
205 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)                                        
COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT                   
TONIGHT. LATEST 3 HOUR MSL PRESSURE RISE FORECASTS FROM THE RUC II              
AND MESOETA ARE MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE 6 MB+             
ON THE RUC II...WHICH WAS THE THRESHOLD FOR ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE              
LAST TWO SIMILAR EVENTS EARLIER THIS MONTH...BUT THE VALUES ARE                 
MAXING OUT AT 4-5 MB BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. AS IT STANDS NOW WESTERN              
ZONES...WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO RUSSELL SPRINGS LINE...WILL SEE THE              
STRONGEST WINDS...AND WILL AIM FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS               
THERE WITH GUSTS TO 38 KT.                                                      
FRIDAY...WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DOWNWARD             
MOTION PULL AWAY. GFS 700 MB TEMPERATURES MIXED TO THE SURFACE COME             
CLOSE TO FWC GUIDANCE AND BLEND WELL WITH OTHER OFFICES. SOME                   
CONCERN WITH PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY EVENING. LEFT EXIT REGION OF              
JET MAX ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WILL BE SPREADING LIFT INTO                       
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE ETA AND GFS                    
VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS. ETA EVEN GENERATES SOME LIGHT QPF. THINK                
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE...JET LIFT...AND TROUGH            
DYNAMICS TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER OVER COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH             
COULD BE LIQUID OR FROZEN BASED ON THE FORECAST THICKNESS VALUES                
ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH. WILL CARRY SILENT POPS FOR NOW BUT                    
RE-EVALUATE FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED             
FOR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 30.                               
SATURDAY...AREA WILL BE UPSTREAM OF TROUGH AXIS WITH SUBSIDENCE                 
FORECAST THROUGH ALL LEVELS. 850 TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +3 TO +6C              
IN THE ETA TO -1 TO +3C IN THE GFS. WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE              
ETA HERE WITH PLENTY OF SUN OFFSETTING COLD ADVECTION ON BREEZY                 
NORTH WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO TEXAS                     
PANHANDLE WITH SURFACE WINDS BACKING TO WEST. MAV MOS LOOKS TO COLD             
(LOWER 20S) WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. EVEN SO...ADDING A                    
CATEGORY TO ITS TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN FIRST AREAWIDE             
HARD FREEZE OF THE SEASON.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)                                          
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER               
THE CONTINENTAL US. DEEP TROUGH WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY ACROSS THE                  
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...WHILE 590 DM RIDGE WILL BE                 
ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A              
NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THOSE TWO FEATURES. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE               
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES                   
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS AND ETA FORECAST STREAM OF MOISTURE                     
ACCOMPANYING JET MAXIMUM ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.              
CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES FORECAST BY THE ETA...GFS...AND CANADIAN              
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY AS CORE OF COLD             
AIR WILL BE TO THE EAST. GIVEN JET INDUCED LIFT...ONLY SLIGHT                   
CHANCES WILL BE WARRANTED. JET WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FOR THE                    
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEST COAST RIDGE WILL RESULT IN STEADILY              
RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WEAK COLD FRONTS LOOK TO COME              
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE LITTLE               
EFFECT ON 850 TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH GRADUALLY WARMING                      
TEMPERATURES FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START THE WEEK TO                    
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEST COAST RIDGE                
GRADUALLY ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE.                                                
&&                                                                              
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JDK                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME                                                
700 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF                   
SULLIVAN AND GRAFTON COUNTIES. UPSLOPING THE LIKELY CAUSE. WILL                 
UPDATE TO SPLIT OFF THESE ZONES TO UP SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHER             
SPOTTER REPORTS IN LINE WITH CURRENT FORECAST THINKING.                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
WINDS/SEAS ARE IN THE LOWER END OF THE SCA RANGE NOW.  WILL HOLD                
ONTO THESE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS THE SFC LOW PASSES.  LOOKS                
LIKE ANOTHER SCA OPPROUNITY EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT             
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPEN N OF THE AREA AND MIXING TO 25 KTS                    
OCCURS.                                                                         
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AT THIS                 
TIME.  GOING WITH A SLOWER GFS SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...AND WILL              
BUMP UP WINDS FOR MONDAY AS THE GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTIZE A                    
POTENTIAL STRONG SCA/LOW END GALE SE FLOW.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THIS EARLY SEASON EVENT IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS                               
PLANNED. RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH ARE             
PRIMARILY FALLING AS SNOW (PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE LINGERING ALONG THE             
COAST). LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CWA IS LIKELY CAUSED BY             
WARM AIR ADVECTION (AND AIDED BY UPSLOPE) TO THE NORTH OF THE 850 MB            
LOW. THIS AREA SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE 850 LOW                
STRETCHES OUT...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION SOUTH OF            
AUG-LEB. THE NEXT AREA IS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN OFF THE ATLANTIC               
INTO EASTERN MAINE AND WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. FEEL THIS MAY BE THE              
BEGINNINGS THE TROWAL WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE RUC/ETA/GFS SUGGEST THIS            
AREA WILL EXPAND AND CIRCLE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE...THEN BUILD BACK             
OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO             
BE THE SOURCE OF MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW...2 TO 4 INCHES IN ME ZONES             
7>9 AND NH ZN 1 WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS ALSO              
SNOW SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS                  
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS MORNING. THIS JUSTIFIES LIKELY OR BETTER            
POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.                                                        
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WHILE                
DOWNSLOPING BRINGS A PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH. GFS/ETA/GEM/UKMET ALL              
BUILD IN HIGH PRES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY STICK CLOSE TO            
MAV MATCHMOS TEMPS...EXCEPT GO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW IT FRIDAY NIGHT            
LEANING TOWARDS THE COLDER ETA.                                                 
LOOKING AHEAD...WILL USE GFS/UKMET/GEM BLEND (ETA IS ALONE AND QUITE            
STRONG AND FAST). FOLLOWING THIS...PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ALONG A               
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN               
THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN GOING FORECAST...WILL BLEND WITH 12Z                   
RUNS...AND WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY                 
NIGHT...THEN EXPAND THEN SUNDAY...THEN RETRACT THEM SUNDAY NIGHT                
(FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE FRONT). GENERALLY LEFT                 
MON-WED ALONE...BUT DID TWEAK GRIDS FOR CONSISTENCY.                            
&&                                                                              
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ME...SCA.                                                                       
NH...SCA.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
APFFEL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   me                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1048 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
DTX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CLIPPING THE THUMB THIS EVENING SHOULD            
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA IN NEXT HOUR OR SO. NEXT BATCH                   
UPSTREAM SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHERN LOWER             
MI. SOME BREAKS AND THIN SPOTS IN CLOUDS MOVING INTO SAGINAW                    
VALLEY...AS SEEN IN 3.9 MICRON IMAGERY...AND TO LESSER EXTENT IN                
PARTS OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST MI. SATELLITE SHOWS                     
COLDER/HIGHER CLOUDS PIVOTING ON OUT TO THE EAST...AND RUC SOUNDINGS            
IN AGREEMENT INDICATING COLLAPSING MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH NEXT FEW                
HOURS...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE BENEATH INVERSION TO SUPPORT QUITE            
A GOOD DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. THUS...THE GOING FORECAST                
LOOKS FINE AND WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED JUST TO REFRESH WORDING ONCE              
THE SHOWERS/SPRINKLES EXIT THE THUMB.                                           
&&                                                                              
DWD                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
THE LAST BIT OF FAST NW FLOW ALOFT TO AFFECT SE MICHIGAN THIS                   
EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESPECTABLE LOW OVER THE U.P AS A             
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER SUPPORT. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN            
LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP OVER NORTHERN LOWER ALL DAY, BUT IT HAS BEEN               
STRUGGLING TO HOLD ON WHILE MOVING DOWN THE HILL INTO SE LOWER. SO              
FAR, SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND                     
INDICATED BY THE MODELS DURING THE EVENING. PLAN TO CARRY TRACE                 
AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY                
LAYER WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW AT OUR LOWER ELEVATION.                         
THE PRECIP WILL BE OUTTA HERE BY MIDNIGHT AND LEAVE THE QUESTION OF             
CLOUD COVER TOWARD SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS LEAVE             
LITTLE DOUBT ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND THE            
ETA HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PATTERN. THE SLOWLY FILLING SURFACE LOW            
WILL PREVENT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING THROUGH LOWER                   
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT, AND WITH 850 MB FLOW SLOWLY BACKING WITH TIME,              
IT WILL TAKE TOO LONG TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS BEFORE SUNRISE.               
A STRONG UPPER JET IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO THE            
PACIFIC NW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GET HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE               
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY OVER THE CENTRAL STATES TONIGHT SO            
THAT LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER SE               
MICHIGAN TOMORROW. PLAN TO STICK WITH A PARTLY SUNNY FORECAST AS A              
FEW BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE OF LEFTOVER            
LOW CLOUDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF MID AND HIGH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS.               
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FORMIDABLE WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850               
AND 700 MB TAKING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON TO OVERCOME. THIS LOOKS GOOD            
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS                
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL GET SWEPT UP IN THE SW FLOW WITH MOISTURE             
TAKING UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE.                                          
PLAN TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS STRONG            
WARM ADVECTION GIVES WAY TO INCREASED UPPER SUPPORT AND COLD FRONTAL            
FORCING ON SATURDAY. PREFER THE GREATER GFS QPF IN LIGHT OF THE                 
OPENNESS OF THE GULF AND SIMILAR, IF NOT IDENTICAL, FRONTAL TIMING              
THROUGH OUR AREA.                                                               
IN TRYING TO DECIDE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ETA SOLUTION FOR SATURDAY               
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THE ETA IS TOO FAR EAST WITH THE                
SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER             
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER TO US, MORE LIKE            
THE GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, EVEN THE GFS GIVES US A REASONABLE CHANCE            
OF DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A PAUSE IN SYNOPTIC SUPPORT BEFORE THE            
NEXT WAVE ROUNDS THE UPPER TROF.                                                
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE STATE              
OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY MONDAY WITH A VERY DEEP TROF OVER THE               
CENTRAL STATES. THE GFS, UKMET, AND CANADIAN ALL SHOW THIS FEATURE              
ALONG WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST            
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW IS             
IN DOUBT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS HIGH. THE LATEST              
06 AND 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND MOVING            
TOWARD LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY AND INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO ON TUESDAY AS              
UPPER JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF. WARM LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE              
FORM OF RAIN ON MONDAY WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.                        
THE GFS THEN PROCEEDS TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WITH A COUPLE OF                
CONTOURS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S EURO MODELS BUT             
TODAY'S EURO RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CLOSED LOW SOLUTION AS HAS             
THE CANADIAN. NCEP ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE TREND TOWARD THE MORE                  
OPEN/PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A                
FASTER DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH A WEAK TROF/NW FLOW OVER               
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS, ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROF                 
OVERHEAD, CONTINUES TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ON TUESDAY             
AND WEDNESDAY.                                                                  
THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HEADS TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER            
AIR PATTERN ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THE TROF TO OUR EAST. AS SURFACE              
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WE'LL START OUT THURSDAY            
DRY AND WARMER AS TIMING ON THE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO                
ADJUST FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.                                                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BT                                                                              
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE PCPN TRENDS ALONG WITH TEMPS.                  
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NW FLOW THROUGH THE WRN LAKES             
WHILE UPSTREAM SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM SASK/MT. AT THE SFC MESOLOW               
FROM ERN LK SUPERIOR HAD MOVED ONSHORE LEAVING CYCLONIC NNE FLOW                
INTO UPR MI AS A LINGERING TROF EXTENDED N INTO ERN LK SUPERIOR FROM            
LO PRES OVER NRN LK MI. RADAR SHOWED PCPN BANDS MOVING INTO N CNTRL             
UPR MI. CAA BEHIND THE TROF AXIS HAS LOWERED FRZG LVL ENOUGH TO                 
CHANGE -SHRA OVER TO SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN (AT THE NWS OFFICE).              
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR -4C GIVING LK-H8 DELTA/T TO               
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED PCPN. ETA AND RUC SNDGS 900-700 LYR LIKELY A              
BIT TOO DRY GIVEN PCPN TRENDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MORE IN LINE WITH            
KAPX SNDG LINGERING NEAR THE LOW LVL TROF.                                      
EXPECT WEAK HIGH PRES AND DRIER 850-700 AIR(PER 00Z KINL SNDG)TO                
FILTER INTO UPR MI AS UPSTREAM PROGRESSIVE PATTERN GRADUALLY                    
OVERCOMES LAKE INDUCED TROFFING. SO SCT -SHRASN SHOULD DIMINISH OVER            
N CNTRL UPR MI WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. OVER THE REST OF            
UPR MI...SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE WAA HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AHEAD OF             
THE PLAINS TROF. HOWEVER...ENOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER TO KEEP TEMPS            
FROM DROPPING OFF MUCH WITH READINGS AGAIN STAYING ABV GUIDANCE                 
VALUES.                                                                         
JLB                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRI AS APPROACHING TROF MOVES INTO THE            
AREA (FAVORABLE POSITION OF 100KT H3 JET AND H8-H5 Q-VECTOR                     
CONVERGENCE). THOUGH AMS IS FAIRLY DRY...GFS/ETA/NGM DO SHOW PWATS              
INCRG TO NEAR 2/3RDS OF AN INCH...OF WHICH WE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT                
SOMETHING. PCPN TYPE IS AN ISSUE THOUGH. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW WBZERO              
HEIGHTS OF NEAR 1500FT MSL FRI MORNING...WHICH IS REASONABLE                    
CONSIDERING DRY AMS SETTLING IN TNGT (UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN 20S). AS               
PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING FRI...LOOKS LIKE A              
MIX W/ SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST HALF. MAY EVEN             
GET A LITTLE ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.                              
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER WX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAIN UPR TROF              
COMES IN SAT. INTRODUCTION OF SHRA SAT AFTN IN WEST STILL LOOKS GOOD            
DUE TO BETTER PV ADVECTION AND COLD AIR ALF (H5 TEMPS TO -27C OR                
SO). AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -3C OR SO IN WEST...WILL BE TOO WARM FOR               
ANY LAKE INVOLVEMENT. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT MILD.            
W/ GOOD MIXING (TO 800-850MB)...H8 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE ZERO AND WLY            
FLOW...HIGHS INTO LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EAST...                     
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE.                       
MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS THE U P SAT NIGHT IN THE TROF'S WAKE...AND               
ETA/GFS SHOW H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C OR -10C OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...             
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MAY BE SETTING UP...ONE THAT INVOLVES LES.              
ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ALL AGREE IN SHOWING SOME DYNAMICS W/ A SHORTWAVE              
LATE SAT NIGHT...GOOD LLVL CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW AND MOISTURE THROUGH              
700MB. ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THE WEST SHOW TOP OF MOIST LAYER TO NEAR               
-18C AS WELL. CONSIDERING DELTA-TS MAY REACH NEAR 16C...AND MUCH                
MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER              
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUN. HAVE UPPED               
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE                 
CHILLY...W/ NLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C.                                  
IN THE EXTENDED (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES LOW WHICH IS FCST            
TO TRACK FROM THE GULF TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AS A             
DEEP UPR LOW DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AGREED W/ MID SHIFT              
THAT BRUNT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MISS US TO THE EAST...BUT CANNOT                
RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS DELTA-TS AND CYCLONIC NLY FLOW WILL BE             
THERE. THEN...A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH WRN FLANK OF LONGWAVE TROF              
INTO TUE...LOOKING TO WRAP UP ENTIRE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST. ALL               
MODELS SHOW THIS DAY (TUE) HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN...            
GIVEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM UPR LOW. SO...                 
WHEREAS HAVE MADE WEST DRY LATE SUN AND MON...HAVE KEPT W/ CHC RASN             
WEST/CENTRAL TUE AND UPPED POPS TO LIKELY RASN EAST. GIVEN STRONG               
MAGNITUDE OF FLOW...EVEN W/ PURE LAKE EFFECT WOULD EXPECT SOME                  
SHOWERS TO REACH THE SOUTH. FLOW BACKS NW WED...AND WOULD EXPECT                
LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN DAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. PER                
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS...HAVE GONE W/ DRY WX WED NIGHT/THU AS                
FLOW BECOMES WLY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PLENTIFUL...AND INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES/TYPE                 
FRI...TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR LES INTO SUN...AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM                
THAT MAY IMPACT US DURING THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.                               
SAT IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW MESOLOW LOCATED OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...              
HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROF AS SHORTWAVE PASSES JUST TO OUR NE              
(IN NW FLOW ALF). LGT SHRA ON MQT RADAR ALONG WIND SHIFT AXIS WILL              
PROPAGATE SWD OVER NEXT HOUR...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF EVNG PERIOD. DUE            
TO LOCATION OF MESOLOW THOUGH...WILL INCLUDE ISOLD SHRA IN EAST                 
EARLY THIS EVNG. DEEPER MOISTURE ON RUC SOUNDING AT ERY CONCURS WITH            
THIS. OTHERWISE...LINGERING 925-800RH (W/ DRYING ABOVE) AND NLY FLOW            
WARRANT KEEPING POSSIBLE DZ OR FLURRIES IN NCENTRAL AND EAST UNTIL              
MIDNIGHT OR SO. CELLULAR CLD UPSTREAM UNDER SFC HIGH IN NORTHWESTERN            
ONTARIO SHOULD BECOME MORE SCT AS WE LOSE ANY DAYTIME HEATING...AND             
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING MUCH DRIER INL SOUNDING FROM THIS             
MORNING. THUS...WILL GO WITH PTCLDIES WEST AND SOUTH TNGT. FURTHER              
WEST...SHARP UPR TROF IS PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES ATTM.                  
THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WON'T IMPACT US TIL TOMORROW...HIGH CLOUD HAS                
MADE ITS WAY INTO MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN.                                        
LIKELY POPS LOOK ON TRACK FOR FRI AS APPROACHING TROF MOVES INTO THE            
AREA (FAVORABLE POSITION OF 100KT H3 JET AND H8-H5 Q-VECTOR                     
CONVERGENCE). THOUGH AMS IS FAIRLY DRY...GFS/ETA/NGM DO SHOW PWATS              
INCRG TO NEAR 2/3RDS OF AN INCH...OF WHICH WE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT                
SOMETHING. PCPN TYPE IS AN ISSUE THOUGH. ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW WBZERO              
HEIGHTS OF NEAR 1500FT MSL FRI MORNING...WHICH IS REASONABLE                    
CONSIDERING DRY AMS SETTLING IN TNGT (UPSTREAM DEWPTS IN 20S). AS               
PCPN LOOKS TO BEGIN SOMETIME DURING THE MORNING FRI...LOOKS LIKE A              
MIX W/ SNOW AT THE ONSET OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST HALF. MAY EVEN             
GET A LITTLE ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN.                              
AFTER A PERIOD OF DRIER WX LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...MAIN UPR TROF              
COMES IN SAT. INTRODUCTION OF SHRA SAT AFTN IN WEST STILL LOOKS GOOD            
DUE TO BETTER PV ADVECTION AND COLD AIR ALF (H5 TEMPS TO -27C OR                
SO). AS H8 TEMPS DROP TO -3C OR SO IN WEST...WILL BE TOO WARM FOR               
ANY LAKE INVOLVEMENT. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL ACTUALLY BE SOMEWHAT MILD.            
W/ GOOD MIXING (TO 800-850MB)...H8 TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE ZERO AND WLY            
FLOW...HIGHS INTO LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EAST...                     
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL DOWNSLOPE.                       
MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS THE U P SAT NIGHT IN THE TROF'S WAKE...AND               
ETA/GFS SHOW H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C OR -10C OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...             
AN INTERESTING SCENARIO MAY BE SETTING UP...ONE THAT INVOLVES LES.              
ETA/GFS/CANADIAN ALL AGREE IN SHOWING SOME DYNAMICS W/ A SHORTWAVE              
LATE SAT NIGHT...GOOD LLVL CYCLONIC NWLY FLOW AND MOISTURE THROUGH              
700MB. ETA SOUNDINGS FOR THE WEST SHOW TOP OF MOIST LAYER TO NEAR               
-18C AS WELL. CONSIDERING DELTA-TS MAY REACH NEAR 16C...AND MUCH                
MORE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL...SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER              
THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUN. HAVE UPPED               
POPS TO LIKELY IN THE WEST AS A RESULT. TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE                 
CHILLY...W/ NLY FLOW AND H8 TEMPS AROUND -10C.                                  
IN THE EXTENDED (MON-THU)...MAIN QUESTION INVOLVES LOW WHICH IS FCST            
TO TRACK FROM THE GULF TO SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AS A             
DEEP UPR LOW DROPS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AGREED W/ MID SHIFT              
THAT BRUNT OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MISS US TO THE EAST...BUT CANNOT                
RULE OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT AS DELTA-TS AND CYCLONIC NLY FLOW WILL BE             
THERE. THEN...A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH WRN FLANK OF LONGWAVE TROF              
INTO TUE...LOOKING TO WRAP UP ENTIRE SYSTEM JUST TO OUR EAST. ALL               
MODELS SHOW THIS DAY (TUE) HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN...            
GIVEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND MORE INFLUENCE FROM UPR LOW. SO...                 
WHEREAS HAVE MADE WEST DRY LATE SUN AND MON...HAVE KEPT W/ CHC RASN             
WEST/CENTRAL TUE AND UPPED POPS TO LIKELY RASN EAST. GIVEN STRONG               
MAGNITUDE OF FLOW...EVEN W/ PURE LAKE EFFECT WOULD EXPECT SOME                  
SHOWERS TO REACH THE SOUTH. FLOW BACKS NW WED...AND WOULD EXPECT                
LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH BY LATE IN DAY...ESPECIALLY IN WEST. PER                
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 06Z GFS...HAVE GONE W/ DRY WX WED NIGHT/THU AS                
FLOW BECOMES WLY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JKL                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORTWAVE SLIDING SE WITHIN ERN TROUGH IS PUSHING SHIELD OF PCPN W              
TO E ACROSS CWA THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY RAIN WAS OBSERVED              
AS IT CROSSED WRN/CNTRL UPR MI...WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS POINT TO -SN               
FALLING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS...WITH A COATING OF ACCUM IN SPOTS SO FAR.          
WV LOOP SHOWS DARKENING (NVA) SPREADING INTO MUCH OF UPR MI ATTM AND            
EXPECT BULK OF PCPN TO END AROUND NOONTIME BASED ON CURRENT RADAR               
TRENDS. VIS SAT/SFC OBS INDICATE GOOD DEAL OF STRATUS LEFTOVER IN               
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE (GENERALLY BASES OF CLOUD FM 015-030 WITH POCKETS             
OF IFR CIGS OVR LK SUPERIOR AND IN NRN UPR MI. ALHTOUGH RADAR                   
ESSENTIALLY SHOWING PCPN SHIFTING EAST OF MQT-SAW-ESC LINE...FEW                
BLIPS ARE SHOWING UP OVR BARAGA COUNTY AND OUT OVR LK SUPERIOR.                 
AS LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT IS RIDING ACROSS NRN LK MI ATTM CONTINUES             
E...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE N/NNE DIRECTION ACROSS UPR MI. THIS HAS            
ALREADY HAPPENED ON SUPERIOR AND AT P59 (COPPER HARBOR). NRLY FLOW              
OFF LAKE AND LOW SFC DWPT DEPRESSIONS OVERHEAD AND N/E OF LAKE                  
SHOULD KEEP MOIST FLOW OVR MUCH OF CWA FOR DAYTIME HOURS. POSSIBLE              
EXCEPTION IS OVR SWRN INTERIOR WHERE THICKNESS OF MOISTURE WILL BE              
MORE LIKE WHAT IS SEEN OFF KINL SOUNDING (THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE                
AROUND 900MB) VERSUS CWPL (SATURATED THROUGH H85). A BIT CONCERNED              
ABOUT SOME DRIZZLE AS RUC/ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERTICAL EXTENT OF            
MOISTURE FALLING SHORT OF -10C ICE NUCLEATION ISOTHERM. WILL ONLY               
PLACE THIS IN GRIDS OVR BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTY WHERE BLYR FLOW                 
UPSLOPES AND DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL STAY LOW. OTHERWISE...WILL                   
CONTINUE MENTION OF FEW SPRINKLES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH DRYING                
TREND E AND INLAND. MAX T IN GRIDS LOOK FINE WITH WARMEST READINGS S            
CNTRL. PLAN TO JUST TWEAK WINDS/TEMPS.                                          
UPDATED ZFPMQT OUT BEFORE 11 AM.                                                
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1014 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                     
.SHORT TERM...500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING TO THE SSW AND BRING            
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER AS WELL AS             
PORTIONS OF NW LOWER. CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE BULK OF THE                     
PRECIPITATION BEFORE 18Z AND WEST OF M-33 LOOKS GOOD FOR THE EARLY              
AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS TAPERING OFF AND MOST OF THE                         
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN FLOW COUNTIES AND AS MAINLY RAIN                  
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA AND RUC AGREE WITH THIS AS WELL. SO             
WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY UPDATED FORECAST ZONES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 448 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                            
LONG TERM...TONIGHT...THERE IS INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND            
ALOFT. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL BREAK AS DRIER AIR                  
BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE                    
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW INVERSION BUT STILL BELIEVE THIS IS              
OVERDONE SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT THINKING OF CLOUDS SCATTERING            
OUT LATER THIS EVENING. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP A BIT AND ADD A              
COUPLE OF DEGREES TO LOW TEMPERATURES THOUGH.                                   
FRIDAY...STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA            
MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WARM ADVECTION                
(MOSTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) CRANKS UP DURING THE DAY AND MID LEVEL               
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS WELL. IN ADDITION...Q-VECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE SWATH SWEEPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST             
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE NOT IN               
PHASE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY MOIST MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE              
MORNING BUT WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY MOISTEN UP IN THE                     
AFTERNOON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY (WITH                   
MOISTURE ONLY EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT -7C OR SO). THEREFORE WILL                  
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE PM POPS ACROSS THE WEST.                                   
ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO BRING CHANCE OF RAIN OR                
SNOW (PREVIOUSLY ONLY HAD RAIN) TO THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME                  
PERIOD FARTHER SOUTH IN ORDER TO LINE UP BETTER WITH SURROUNDING                
OFFICES. 00Z EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER BUT HAVE              
LACKED CONSISTENCY UP TO THIS POINT.                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
SULLIVAN                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1055 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                     
UPPER LOW MOVG ACRS SRN NEW ENG ATTM WL MOVE TO CENTRAL NEW ENG                 
COAST THIS PM/EVEN. SFC LOW MOVG NORTH THRU CANADIAN MARITIMES.                 
NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS ACRS VT...MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN NRN NY. SNOW           
AMOUNTS TO THIS POINT GENEALLY AN INCH OR TWO EAST OF THE CHMPLN                
VLY...LITTLE IF ANY MSRBL SNOW FROM CHMPLN VLY WEST. AS UPPER LOW               
SLIDES EAST OF FA THIS PM...MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY                      
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE ACRS HIR TRRN OF NRN VT DUE                
FAVORABLE H8 FLOW AND PLENTIFUL LLVL MSTR ALG WITH SUFFICIENT                   
INSTABILITY. MAX TEMPS IN 30S TO NEAR 40. GOING FCST HAS IT ALL                 
COVERED PRETTY WELL...SO NO UPDATE ATTM.                                        
RJS                                                                             
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                 
STORM SYS TO MOVE UP ACRS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. HI PRESS TO             
MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION TODAY AND TONITE...THEN ACRS THE FA              
FROM THE WEST ON FRI/FRI NITE. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION             
ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE.                                                      
00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE U20S TO            
AROUND 40F TODAY WITH N-NW SFC WINDS AT AROUND 10G25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS           
ARE 35-45F TODAY. FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED            
ON THIS DATA AND CURRENT MESONET OBS. PLENTY OF LOW-LVL MSTR TO                 
AFFECT THE FA TODAY AND TONITE (LEAST ACRS THE ST LAW VLY TODAY). PW            
VALUES TO BE AOB 0.5" ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO TONITE ACCORDING TO            
RUC AND NH/NY IPW DATA. RUC SHOWS SN ACRS MUCH OF THE FA FA TODAY               
(WITH MAYBE SOME RA IN THE CHAMP VLY). QPF TO BE BLO 0.25" TODAY...             
WITH BLO 2.5" OF SN (MOSTLY ACRS THE NE KINGDOM). BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC             
SHOWS BEST PCPN OCCURRING ACRS NE VT ATTM.                                      
WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...THEN WK WAA             
TO DEVELOP ON FRI/FRI NITE...WITH GOOD WAA ON SAT. H85 TEMPS TO GO              
POSITIVE ACRS THE FA ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE                
PLACE ACRS THE FA ON FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO               
LINGER ACRS THE FA ON FRI. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST               
ACRS THE FA ON SAT/SAT NITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA           
TODAY AND EARLY TONITE. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA TODAY...             
THEN MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE AGAIN ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST LATE ON           
FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AROUND             
0.75" ON SAT/SAT NITE.                                                          
FACTORS AGAINST A DECENT UPSLOPE SN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ACRS             
THE FA INCLUDE LOW DELTA THETA-E VALUES BLO H85...WK H925 FLOW...POOR           
POSN OF H5 CUTOFF LOW...AND WK CAA. FACTORS LOOKING DECENT FOR                  
UPSLOPE SN TODAY INCLUDE GOOD NW FLOW AT H85...PLENTY OF LOW-LVL                
MSTR...HI LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES...AND POTNL LENGTH OF THE EVENT                   
(> 12HRS). WILL CONT WITH SOME NW FLOW/ELEVATION PCPN ZONE SPLITS FOR           
THIS FCST PACKAGE AND KEEP ANY SN AMTS BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW.           
PCPN SHOULD LINGER INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONITE AND TAPER OFF FROM             
WEST TO EAST. NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN ACRS THE FA LOOKS TO BE OF THE              
LIQUID VARIETY AND BE SOMETIME ON SAT NITE/SUN. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN              
THE L-M40S ON FRI. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW.             
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
200 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-SUNDAY)                                                    
COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH WINDS AND TEMPS            
THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. AS FOR THE WINDS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF                
JUST A BIT ON A FEW FACTORS INCLUDING 3 AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND           
THE WINDS THEMSELF. WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE WINDY CATEGORY THROUGH               
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADIENT RELAXES LATE IN THE DAY. ADVISORY               
CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED BUT COULD BE CLOSE BEFORE 18Z AS RUC/ETA HAVE             
45 TO 50 KTS AT 850 OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPS...           
GFS/ETA/NGM PRETTY CLOSE TO EACHOTHER AT 850 WITH GENERALLY IN THE 60           
TO 65 DEGREE RANGE. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMES IN TONIGHT                 
KEEPING WINDS FROM TOTALLY DROPPING OFF. FWC/MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE IN            
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINS RANGING FROM MID 20S WEST TO MID 30S EAST.             
FOR SATURDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE SOME WIND TO DEAL WITH AND WITH                    
AFTERNOON TEMPS PER 850 GUIDANCE FROM THE ETA/GFS/UKMET NEAR 50                 
DEGREES OR SO. IT WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE                 
EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS OR EVEN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WINDS           
LIGHTEN UP A BIT MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS WEVE SEEN           
IN QUITE SOME TIME. AGAIN...FWC/MAV/ETA MOS GUIDANCE MINS ALL IN GOOD           
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER SO NO LARGE DEVIATIONS EXPECTED. FOR                 
SUNDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES ARISE TO THE AMOUNT OF WARMUP WITH THE              
ETA THE MOST BULLISH FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY THE UKMET AND THEN GFS.                
AVERAGING THE 3 WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60 TO 65           
DEGREE RANGE...ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. AS            
FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES...NOT REAL EXCITED AT ANY POINT DURING THIS               
PERIOD. APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP THAT WOULD DEVELOP IF AT ALL WOULD BE           
JET ENHANCED AND THIS WOULD HAVE TO FALL FROM THE SUFFICIENT MID AND            
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. OMEGA FIELDS SHOW DOWNWARD MOTION AS WELL AND             
NOT SAYING THAT ITS IMPOSSIBLE THE CHANCES ARE FAIRLY SLIM. FOR THAT            
REASON WILL GO AHEAD AND PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE           
GRIDS.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY-THURSDAY)                                                  
NO CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST INLINE WITH                      
SURROUNDING OFFICES.                                                            
&&                                                                              
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
KS...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
300 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
OUR MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE CHANCES FOR              
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.                                
AT 06Z THE SFC WX MAP SHOWS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS               
FROM WEST OF JAMES BAY SOUTH OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, AT THE SFC,              
A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER              
MI. THE KGRR 88D AND SFC OBS INDICATED A FEW SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING           
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE UP AROUND LUDINGTON, BIG RAPIDS AND             
MT. PLEASANT ONE TO TWO HOURS AGO. HOWEVER RADAR TRENDS INDICATE                
THESE SPRINKLES HAVE ENDED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. HI RES MODELS INCLUDING        
THE RUC INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.                      
MOST OF OUR CWA WILL START THE DAY WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN.            
QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS LAKE MI AND WI. HOWEVER,                
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN AND GRADUALLY THICKEN THIS                     
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 00Z GFS AND ETA GUIDANCE                 
INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE              
ACROSS OUR NW CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA                 
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.                                                           
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING. WE'LL HAVE A             
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SE               
CWA, BEFORE WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS DRIER AIR IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.              
THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. A VIGOROUS VORT MAX              
WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL               
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.                                                      
ON SUNDAY IT APPEARS A SFC TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT WILL SWING IN FROM             
THE NW.  IT WILL TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS            
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS                 
OUR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. HOWEVER, THAT TROUGH WILL                 
CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, CAUSING SFC WINDS TO                
BECOME N TO NE ACROSS OUR CWA AND CAUSING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN                  
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. IT'S A TRICKY FCST SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH. AS               
WINDS GO N TO NE SKIES MAY TRY AND CLEAR OUT OVER PORTIONS OF OUR               
CWA, AND MOST OF THE STRATOCU AND SPRINKLES MAY BE PUSHED OUT OVER              
LAKE MI. IF THIS OCCURS MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO OBVIOUSLY BE COLDER THAN            
FORECAST. FOR NOW THOUGH, WE WON'T GET TOO FANCY WITH IT, LOW LEVEL             
RH PROGS SUGGEST SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY NIGHT.                
LONG TERM...                                                                    
LOOKS LIKE WINTER WILL RULE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS H85               
TEMPS START OFF IN THE MINUS 6 TO 9C RANGE ON MONDAY AND ONLY SLOWLY            
MODERATE AFTER THAT TO PERHAPS 0C BY DAY 7 AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN              
DEAMPLIFIES. THE FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL              
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW...AND THERE IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE                
SHOWING UP ALREADY BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THEREFORE IT                 
SEEMS LIKE A GOOD IDEA NOT TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE            
GOING FORECAST.                                                                 
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE WAS TO DROP POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT              
INLAND AS SYNOPTIC LOW DEPARTS AND LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE WINDING                
DOWN AS WAA DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT ARRIVES ON               
TUE. THE 00Z GFS IS A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE LATEST             
ETA DOES NOT SUPPORT THE FASTER MOVEMENT. LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL                
START OFF LIQUID ON TUE IN WAA BUT THEN HEIGHTS LOWER BY EVENING AND            
SOME WET SNOW SHOULD MIX IN AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO -6C BY 12Z WED.                
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ARE PROGGED FOR            
THU...BUT WAA SETS UP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP              
SHOULD END BY 12Z THU...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPS IN THE            
LOWER 50S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAURENS OSTUNO                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
302 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE. FRONTAL           
SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT/SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS             
THE FA ON SUN THRU MON. UPR TROF TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA              
TODAY. ANOTHER UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN THRU           
MON.                                                                            
00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE                    
U20S-L40S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-10G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS             
ARE IN THE M30S-M40S AND LOOK A LIL BETTER THAN RUC TEMPS FOR TODAY.            
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL              
DRYING TO START TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW                 
VALUES TO BE AOB 0.4" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS            
THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME SHSN IN THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF TODAY.                    
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN CONTINUING TO ROTATE DOWN ACRS THE            
FA ATTM.                                                                        
WK H85 WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH GOOD WAA              
FOR MUCH OF SAT THRU SUN. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA LATE             
ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE            
BASICALLY RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM             
THE WEST ON SAT AND LINGER ACRS THE FA RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE            
RATES TO BE HI TODAY ACRS THE FA. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE             
FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AND ON SAT AND THEN LINGER THRU AT LEAST SUN.           
PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AOB AN INCH FOR SAT THRU SUN               
NITE.                                                                           
WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN TO THE MTNS ACRS THE FA TODAY.             
NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON SAT. ERN/SRN SECTIONS           
OF THE FA LOOK TO STAND THE BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY ON SAT. CHC POPS            
STILL LOOK LIKE THE WAY TO GO ON SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. WILL MOST              
LIKELY GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTER SOME                        
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR                 
TEENS-M20S TONITE AND T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-M50S ON SAT. NO               
CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW.                                   
WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.                               
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1100 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINOR UPDATES TO THE ZONES TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE SE AREAS...A                
BIT STRONGER SSE WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH AND HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID             
60S FROM I-74 NORTH AND NEAR 70 SW AREAS. 10 AM TEMPS RANGE FROM 50             
TO 55 WITH MILDEST READINGS SW AND SSE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 8 TO             
18 MPH. RUC AND MESOETA DELAYING SHOWERS TO AREAS WEST OF THE IL                
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD SUNSET. WILL LEAVE PROB30 CHANCE               
FROM PEORIA NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THIS                  
AFTERNOON AROUND SPRINGFIELD. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADS EAST                  
ACROSS CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE IA/IL             
BORDER AROUND 00Z...TO I-55 BY 06Z AND THRU LAWRENCEVILLE JUST AFTER            
12Z/SAT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SURFACE RIDGE LETTING GO OF THE AREA AS SURFACE WINDS COME AROUND TO            
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT...            
NOW MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...IS STILL SLATED TO COME INTO THE               
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. LATEST UPPER              
AIR CHARTS SHOW MEAGER MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND SURFACE                     
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AS FAR NORTH AS KANSAS. CONSIDERING THAT LOW               
LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE COMING AROUND TO SOUTHERLY UNTIL LATER                  
TODAY...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE MOISTURE TO GET THIS FAR                   
NORTHEAST. WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD             
OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...BUT MOST OF THE               
ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SECOND PERIOD. WITH A DECENT                 
AMOUNT OF SUN AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WILL                    
CONTINUE TO GO ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES            
TODAY. HIGHS YESTURDAY GOT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST                  
AREAS...AND WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST THAT TODAY.                                  
MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT THROUGH            
ILLINOIS TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS/ETA/CANADIAN HAVING SIMILAR MASS                
FIELDS. STILL BELIEVE THAT THE WETTER GFS IS THE WAY TO GO...HOWEVER            
ALSO THINK THAT IT IS LINGERING SHOWERS TOO FAR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY             
ON SATURDAY. DECENT WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING                 
LAPSE RATES ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...SO WILL KEEP A MENTION OF             
THUNDER ALONG WITH CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT.                                    
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE             
FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST...BUT THINK               
THAT THE CHANCES ARE TOO MEAGER TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE ETA                
BRINGS DOWN A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WITH              
THE GFS AND CANADIAN MUCH WEAKER.                                               
THE GFS BRINGS DOWN A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL CLIPPER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO             
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE MONDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES/850MB TEMPS             
SUPPORT AT LEAST A MIXTURE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL               
AND NORTHERN ZONES. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS KEEPING THE               
COLDEST AIR TO OUR NORTH...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION AS LIQUID             
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. THIS SHORTWAVE THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE             
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED WITH THIS SCENERIO...BUT             
WILL NOT CHANGE THE CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY QUITE YET.            
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04/HUETTL                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1030 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PTYPE AND PCPN TIMING/COVERAGE ARE PRIMARY UPDATE ISSUES.                       
RADAR LOOPS FM KMPX/KDLH/KMQT SHOWING BROAD AREA OF PCPN FM SCNTRL              
MN INTO NE MN AND ARCING TOWARD WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEWEENAW                  
PENINSULA. GENERAL MOVEMENT OF PCPN IS EWD. OVERALL PCPN IS                     
RAIN...BUT SNOW IS FALLING OVR NRN PORTION OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA                
WITH KCMX REPORTING LGT SNOW RECENTLY AND REPORT FM MOHWAK TURNING              
UP A QUICK INCH OF WET SNOW. HOUGHTON WEBCAMS FM MTU SHOWING ONLY               
RAIN AT THIS POINT. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE LOWERING OVER REST OF UPR MI            
SKIES ARE FREE FM PCPN AT THIS POINT.                                           
PRIMARY DRIVING MECHANISMS FOR PCPN ARE POSITIVE PVA ADVECTION FM               
APPROACHING VORT MAX EDGING INTO NW MN AND DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT FM            
290-295K (H85-H7). 06Z ETA HAS GOOD HANDLE ON PCPN COVERAGE BASED ON            
290K ISENTROPIC SFC. INITIALLY...PCPN OVR UPR MI WILL BE BASED ON               
THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS PVA ADVECTION OF SIGNIFICANCE DOES NOT                 
SPREAD INTO REGION UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO...EXPECT RAIN OVR WRN LAKE               
SUPERIOR TO CONTINUE TRACKING EWD AND GRADUALLY SPREADING OVR CWA FM            
W TO E THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES ON RIGHT TRACK...BUT                
WILL SLIGHTLY DELAY PCPN FOR CNTRL/ERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT RADAR             
TRENDS. AS FOR PTYPE...THINK THAT SNOW TRENDS OVR KEWEENAW THIS AM              
MAY BE SIMILAR OVR INTERIOR OF BARAGA/MARQUETTE/ALGER COUNTIES LATE             
MORNING/EARLY AFTN. 00Z ETA BUFKIT FM LAST NIGHT PEGGING PCPN TYPE              
TO THIS POINT WITH 24/00Z LOCAL WORKSTATION ETA ALSO DOING SUPERB               
JOB. BOTH INDICATE THAT PCPN DEVELOPING OVR CNTRL ZONES NEXT FEW                
HOURS WILL AT LEAST MIX WITH SNOW INITIALLY...AND POSSIBLY STARTING             
OUT AS SNOW EXCLUSIVELY. AT SAME TIME...LATEST RUC/ETA 1000-850MB               
THICKNESSES ONLY POINT TO CURRENT KEWEENAW SNOW TO BE IT. FOR                   
NOW...WILL LEAVE CURRENT PTYPE IN GRIDS/ZONES AND HANDLE ANY                    
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT ONSET VIA THE NOWCAST.                                     
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...POSITIVE PVA SLOW TO ARRIVE AND ITS ALSO SLOW            
TO DEPART (NVA BEGINS ONLY BY LATE THIS EVENING). LIKELY-CATAGORICAL            
POPS CNTRL/ERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT PERIOD COVER SITUATION WELL AND                
WILL NOT NEED ANY CHANGES BEYOND TODAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION                 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE                                            
805 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.UPDATE...WIND ADVISORY OUT BASED ON UPSTREAM SFC OBS OVR LBF CWA               
AND FAR WRN PORTION OF NE GID CWA ALG W/SHRT TERM RUCII PROJECTIONS             
OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE POST FRONTAL DESCENT...ALREADY APPARENT               
W/10 DEGREE TEMP RISE AT LXN...HDE AND ODX. THIS STRONG MIXING                  
COMBINED W/GRADIENT SURGE AND 1K METER PROFILER WINDS NR 45 KTS AT              
MRRN1 PROFILER POINTING TO THAT NEED INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW              
HAVE SLATED ADVISORY ALG/W OF 281 AND ALL NRN KS COUNTIES. WILL CONT            
TO MONITOR AREAS EAST OF 281 FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                                
&&                                                                              
312 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2003                                                      
.PREV DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS EARLY MORNING              
SHOWS DECENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BACK                
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF               
AROUND 3-5 MB HAVE BEEN COMMON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT WITH SURFACE            
WINDS PICKING UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.  ALOFT...WATER VAPOR              
IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG WAVE SPINNING EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN            
CANADA WHILE PAST EVENING UPPER AIR DATA REVEALS 100+ KT JET ON BACK            
SIDE OF SYSTEM.  THIS ALL LOOKS TO EQUATE TO LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN            
CHANGE OVER REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET HELPS CARVE OUT A            
FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE            
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
FIRST POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR THIS FORECAST INVOLVES EXTENT OF WINDS              
BEHIND FRONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  MERRIMAN PROFILER IS ALREADY             
SHOWING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS IN THE FIRST GATE ABOVE THE                   
GROUND.  THIS CORE OF WINDS IS SHOWN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH             
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE MORNING.                   
BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THESE            
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT AS                  
THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ENOUGH BY THE TIME LAPSE RATES                 
STEEPEN THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM.  OTHER                 
PROBLEM WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY IS SLIGHT PRECIP THREAT AS FRONT             
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND            
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE             
IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW AND ANY RESULTANT CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM              
WILL BE HIGH BASED. BASED OFF THIS PRECIP THREAT LOOKS RESTRICTED TO            
SPRINKLES AT BEST.  TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY BUT HIGHS               
RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NEAR ORD TO MID 60S ACROSS N. CENTRAL                  
KANSAS LOOK REASONABLE.                                                         
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR THEN SLIDES INTO AREA LATE TONIGHT             
INTO SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER REGION.  THIS                
WILL PUSH 850MB TEMPS BELOW FREEZING BY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD KEEP            
HIGHS FROM ESCAPING THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. PRECIP                
CHANCE LOOKS SMALL AS LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE DESPITE GOOD            
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT             
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOWN TO RIDGE INTO FORECAST UNDER A MOSTLY                 
CLEAR SKY.  WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND WINDS UNDER 15 MPH               
EXPECT A KILLING FREEZE AS TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S              
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.                                                             
PATTERN LOOKS PRETTY QUIET FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE             
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO                
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR HIGHS. NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM                 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THEN SHOWN TO SLOWLY PUSH COLD AIR OUT              
OF AREA WITH DECENT WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER COLD DOME PRODUCING            
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.  MODELS LOOK OVERDONE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER                
MOISTURE ON MONDAY GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES COMING OFF THE             
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  BASED OFF THIS SETUP EXPECT A NICE VIRGA SHOW BUT            
THAT'S ABOUT IT.  REST OF FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY STILL LOOKS GOOD               
AND WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AWJ/T                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1103 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING              
ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AT 14Z...THE                   
SURFACE WAVE WAS CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER SOUTH OF                    
AUGUSTA. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING             
IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH THE BOUNDARY. SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE              
MOST PART FOR ALL OF OUR CWFA...BUT DO EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO               
DEVELOP LATER. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STIL PROGD BY THE RUC TO              
SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FLOW VEERS              
TO SOUTH AHEAD OF EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF EAST COAST TROF THAT                
SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RUC ALSO INDICATED A SHORTWAVE            
WOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER WITH LITTLE FANFARE BUT COULD RESULT              
IN A FEW MORE CUMULUS FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS FEATURE ON UPPER             
AIR ANALYSIS IS MUCH WEAKER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE RUC.                          
THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTS A WIDE RANGE OF AFTERNOON MAXES WILL BE               
OBSERVED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 45 M DIFFERENCE IN 1000/85H              
THICKNESS BETWEEN FFC AND GSO. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOME                  
RESIDUAL DOWNSLOPE EARLY THAT GOES NEUTRAL BY LATE AFTERNOON...WE               
WILL RAISE MAXES ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH LOWER 60S FOR THE                      
NORTHWEST...TO MID 70S EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY            
OR WIND...MOSTLY SUNNY AND WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE             
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GSP 72 46 72 54 / 00 00 10 40                                                   
AND 73 46 74 55 / 00 00 10 30                                                   
CLT 70 45 72 52 / 00 00 10 20                                                   
HKY 68 44 70 51 / 00 00 10 30                                                   
AVL 66 43 69 51 / 00 00 10 40                                                   
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURRUS                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX                                             
1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. AS OF 16Z THE             
FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MORTON TO PLAINVIEW TO CLARENDON. GUSTY                  
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW                
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA                 
PANHANDLE. HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS IT                
MOVES SOUTHWARD IN THE GRIDS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE LUBBOCK                
AREA AROUND 1 PM AND THEN CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD MOVE THROUGH THE               
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH             
THEM HOLDING STEADY OR BEGINNING A SLOW FALL. HAVE ADJUSTED                     
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AT A FEW LOCATIONS. 12Z RUN OF THE RUC MODEL              
LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.                                 
&&                                                                              
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
TX...FREEZE WATCH SATURDAY NIGHT ZONES 21>24 AND 27>29.                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
FCSTID = MM                                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                     
ULVL TROF CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM NORTH COUNTRY. AREA OF                    
CHANNELLED VORTICITY DOESN'T CLR RGN TILL LATER THIS PM. THIS                   
COMBINED WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLDS FOR               
MUCH OF PM ALG WITH CHC SNOW SHWRS/FLRYS THRU MID PM...MAINLY OVER              
HIR TRRN. HIGH PRESSURE BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY BY THIS EVENING            
HOWEVER...SO EXPECT CLRNG LATER PM WITH DIMINISHING NW BREEZES. WILL            
ISSUE UPDATE WITH SOME MINOR FIRST PERIOD CHANGES.                              
RJS                                                                             
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...                                                 
HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND TONITE. FRONTAL           
SYS TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SAT/SAT NITE AND THEN ACRS             
THE FA ON SUN THRU MON. UPR TROF TO MOVE OUT TO THE EAST OF THE FA              
TODAY. ANOTHER UPR TROF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN THRU           
MON.                                                                            
00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE                    
U20S-L40S TODAY WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-10G20 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS             
ARE IN THE M30S-M40S AND LOOK A LIL BETTER THAN RUC TEMPS FOR TODAY.            
FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. LOW-LVL              
DRYING TO START TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PW                 
VALUES TO BE AOB 0.4" ACRS THE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOCLDY SKIES ACRS            
THE FA TODAY...WITH SOME SHSN IN THE MTNS FOR MUCH OF TODAY.                    
BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS SOME PCPN CONTINUING TO ROTATE DOWN ACRS THE            
FA ATTM.                                                                        
WK H85 WAA TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FA TODAY AND TONITE...WITH GOOD WAA              
FOR MUCH OF SAT THRU SUN. H85 TEMPS TO GO POSITIVE ACRS THE FA LATE             
ON SAT. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TONITE            
BASICALLY RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA FROM             
THE WEST ON SAT AND LINGER ACRS THE FA RIGHT THRU MON. LOW-LVL LAPSE            
RATES TO BE HI TODAY ACRS THE FA. MID-LVL MSTR TO INCREASE ACRS THE             
FA FROM THE WEST TONITE AND ON SAT AND THEN LINGER THRU AT LEAST SUN.           
PW VALUES TO INCREASE ACRS THE FA TO AOB AN INCH FOR SAT THRU SUN               
NITE.                                                                           
WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF ANY PCPN TO THE MTNS ACRS THE FA TODAY.             
NEXT CHC FOR ANY PCPN APPEARS TO BE BY LATER ON SAT. ERN/SRN SECTIONS           
OF THE FA LOOK TO STAND THE BEST CHC OF STAYING DRY ON SAT. CHC POPS            
STILL LOOK LIKE THE WAY TO GO ON SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. WILL MOST              
LIKELY GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACRS THE FA ON MON AFTER SOME                        
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE UPR                 
TEENS-M20S TONITE AND T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M40S-M50S ON SAT. NO               
CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW.                                   
WRK ZONES OUT UNDER ALBWRKCWF. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM.                               
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
MURRAY                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
230 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
.DISCUSSION FOR THE 4 PM ZONES/GRIDS:                                           
THE RUC MODEL SHOWS STRONG THERMAL VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE                 
CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE FRONT IS PRETTY ACTIVE WITH                   
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SOME ARE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. THE LAPSE                    
RATE FROM 900 MB INCREASES AT 00 UTC AND THE LIFTED INDEX IS                    
DECREASING THROUGH 03 UTC AS SEEN ON THE RUC MODEL. WILL KEEP                   
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GOES                
SOUNDER SHOWS TOTAL PRECIPITAL WATER INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL                  
ILLINOIS.                                                                       
AFTER THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IT CONTINUES TO                     
AMPLIFY AND ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES INTO NORTHERN                       
ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL USE THE ETA MODEL FOR THIS                       
WAVE MOVEMENT. THE ETA IS HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT AND                          
MOTION OF THE WAVE BETTER THAN AVN.  AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO                      
BE POSITIVELY TILTED ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES                            
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE THICKNESS FORECASTS FROM BOTH                     
THE AVN AND ETA SHOWS RAIN AND SNOW MIXED WOULD BE POSSIBLE                     
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.                                                             
WHW                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE                                        
ALL MODELS SHOW RAPID INCREASE IN UP OMEGA OVER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.            
PRECIP NOW DEVELOPING OVER NE IA IN STRONG WWA ZONE. WILL INTRO                 
PRECIP ACROSS TAFS TOWARD EVE. LOOKS LIKE GENERAL RAIN MOST OF NIGHT            
BEFORE ENDING MOSTLY BEFORE 12Z. NGM HAS EXTENSIVE IFR CONDS BUT DO             
NOT BELIEVE ENOUGH LO LEVEL MOISTUE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR N SO JUST               
HAVE MVFR CONDS IN THE RAIN. CONDS IMPROVE DURING TOMORROW MORNING.             
AT THIS TIME NO TS IN TAFS AS LOOKS LIKE THAT TO HOLD S OF THE TAF              
SITES. GYY WOULD HAVE BEST CHANCE AND NOW THAT STILL LOOKS A                    
STRETCH. WOULD BE MID LEVEL STUFF ANYWAY WITH JUST A FLASH OR TWO.              
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT MOST OF NIGHT AND THEN NW BY MORNING.                     
AF                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES                                              
.IL... NONE.                                                                    
.IN... NONE.                                                                    
.LK MICH... NONE.                                                               
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
536 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN                  
...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IOWA IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST.  THERE                   
HAVE BEEN RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER LAKE MI...SO SHIFTED                    
THE MENTION OF THUNDER FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE                         
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THUNDER IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF STRONG                  
MID LEVEL LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE.   SINCE THE LATEST RUC                        
BRINGS THIS LIFT AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST                       
AREA...THUNDER APPEARS POSSIBLE.  HAVE UPDATED ZONES AND THE                    
NEARSHORE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJS                                                                             
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
315 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2003                                                      
.SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH IS SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST WITH DRY LOW LEVEL            
AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES INHIBITING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.               
UPSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES, THE NEXT SYSTEMS ARE IN THE NORTHERN               
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE WINNIPEG WITH THE COLD               
FRONT EXTENDING INTO WISCONSIN AND THEN INTO WESTERN KANSAS IS THE              
FIRST SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN E             
KANSAS AND N TEXAS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE/COL REGION BETWEEN THE TWO             
STORMS AND THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE IMPETUS OF THE FIRST                
PROBLEM OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TONIGHT.                                       
TONIGHT...12Z ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE                     
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH             
WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER DIV Q SHOWING GOOD UPWARD LIFT AND THE 850            
MB AND 700-500 MB MOISTURE BOTH ABOVE 95% WITH THE MOISTURE                     
SATURATED TO ABOVE -10C. SO HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS. THIS LASTS UNTIL             
ABOUT 08Z THEN THE UPPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE ON AND THE MOISTURE            
IS NO LONGER SATURATED THROUGH -10C. WILL KEEP IN CHANCE -RA WEST               
AND LIKELY -RA EAST AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT. -DZ WOULD BE MOST                  
LIKELY THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE REGION.                            
LUTZ                                                                            
.LONG TERM...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME             
PERIOD INCLUDE IMPACT OF UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE              
TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. INITIAL SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL               
EXIT FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT. ETA SHOWS LINGERING QG SUPPORT AND                
MOISTURE BELOW ABOUT 700 MB THROUGH MID MORNING OVER E/SE                       
AREAS...BEFORE DRY SLOT SWEEPS INTO AREA FROM THE SW BY MIDDAY.                 
MOISTURE LOOKS VERY MEAGER (MAINLY WARMER THAN -8C)...WHICH SHOULD              
TRANSLATE INTO JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE              
EARLY ALONG BOUNDARY E OF I-75 CORRIDOR. FEEL THAT BOUNDARY LAYER               
MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE ETA IS OVERDONE FOR THE AFTERNOON (DEW POINTS             
IN THE MID/UPPER 40S WITH CAPES OF 300-400 J/KG). AS A RESULT...AT              
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD DEVELOP AREA WIDE BY MIDDAY.                    
SUNSHINE SHOULD SUPPORT DECENT MIXING...WITH LOWER/MID 50S EXPECTED.            
ALL IN ALL...A NICE AUTUMN AFTERNOON.                                           
SATURDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY. HOWEVER...AS                   
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH...             
QG SUPPORT WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE IN            
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER MIDNIGHT -- NW OF A CADILLAC TO ROGERS             
CITY LINE. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN LATE TO THESE AREAS.               
THICKENING CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...WITH ANY             
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS REMAINING LIQUID.                                      
SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST UPSTREAM...AS LOW                
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CYCLONIC. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD            
DEAL OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE -- UP TO ABOUT 700 MB. SCATTERED                 
PRECIPITATION STILL A GOOD BET. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE            
DAY...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL FROM 0 TO -4C RANGE AT 12Z...TO -4            
TO -8C RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO REMAIN               
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE E            
UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE COLDEST AIR WILL RESIDE. WILL                
CONSEQUENTLY INCLUDE A CHANCE RAIN/SNOW MIX E UPPER IN THE                      
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ETA/GFS START TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY. THE               
ETA IS FASTEST IN BRINGING NEXT SHORT WAVE SE INTO THE WRN GREAT                
LAKES BY LATE MONDAY...AND WOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION BY            
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS FAST. PREFER THE TIMING OF                  
THE GFS. WILL TENTATIVELY KEEP MONDAY JUST MOSTLY CLOUDY...AND BANK             
ON PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL MON NIGHT.                                   
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS AGREE THAT LARGE-SCALE                   
TROUGHING (ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER) WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION             
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING             
THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. 00Z             
GFS AND CANADIAN GEM WERE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING UPPER                   
LOW/TROUGH OVER WRN GREAT LAKES BY TUE...THOUGH NEWER GFS RUNS AND              
THE ECMWF SEEM TO SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND/OR FARTHER E                    
SOLUTION. ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY IS THEN FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE             
NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES BY THU/FRI. RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW STILL                 
WARRANTED TUE -- AS SURFACE LOW SKIRTS THE LOWER LAKES -- THOUGH                
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NRN MI APPEAR LOW. WILL            
CONTINUE RISK FOR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO WED/THU...AND TRY TO BRING DRY             
CONDITIONS IN FOR FRI (THOUGH WITH VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE            
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES LATE WEEK).                                     
SMITH                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
$$                                                                              
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