NZUS43 KFGF 201657
WRKME2
MNC005-007-027-029-051-057-069-077-087-107-111-113-119-125-073-
135-159-167-NDC003-005-017-019-027-035-039-063-067-071-077-081-
091-095-097-099-111200-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS ND
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 20  2008 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES...AHPS...ENABLE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS...
...RED RIVE BASIN OUTLOOK FOR RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL...
                            RED RIVER BASIN
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
                VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008
IN THE TABLE BELOW THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER AT A CERTAIN LOCATION WILL RISE ABOVE THE STAGES
INDICATED BY THE VALUES IN THE ROW FOR THAT LOCATION ANYTIME DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
EXAMPLE: THE RED RIVER AT WAHPETON HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RED RIVER AT
WAHPETON WILL RISE ABOVE 10.4 FEET AND ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
IT WILL RISE ABOVE 11.6 FEET.
       CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MAINSTEM RED RIVER LOCATIONS
                          VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
 WAHPETON ND   10    6.8    7.6    8.7   10.0   10.4   10.8   11.0   11.4   11.6
 FARGO ND      18   15.5   15.8   16.4   17.1   17.4   18.0   19.6   20.6   21.9
 HALSTAD ND    26    8.5    9.5   10.2   10.7   11.7   12.7   14.7   17.2   21.3
 GRAND FORKS   28   17.9   18.2   18.7   19.2   19.8   20.6   22.0   26.4   30.6
 OSLO MN       26   11.6   12.4   13.7   15.1   16.6   18.3   20.8   26.7   30.6
 DRAYTON ND    32   13.8   14.4   15.6   16.1   17.2   18.6   20.1   23.4   26.9
 PEMBINA ND    42   16.6   17.6   19.6   21.2   22.7   24.9   26.4   30.3   33.8
         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT MINNESOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
                     VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
SO FORK BUFFALO RIVER...
 SABIN         12    6.5    8.4    9.5   10.0   10.8   12.0   12.6   13.3   13.5
BUFFALO RIVER...
 HAWLEY         7    4.6    4.9    5.1    5.3    5.6    6.1    6.4    7.1    9.0
 DILWORTH      12    5.3    6.3    7.7    9.0   10.2   12.5   14.2   15.6   18.5
WILD RICE RIVER...
 TWIN VALLEY   10    2.9    3.5    3.9    4.2    4.5    5.4    6.2    7.4    9.1
 HENDRUM       20    6.5    8.5    9.5   10.6   13.4   15.4   17.1   21.8   25.4
MARSH RIVER...
 SHELLY        14    4.4    4.5    4.7    5.0    5.9    7.0    9.0   10.0   11.6
SAND HILL RIVER...
 CLIMAX        20    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6    4.6    8.5
RED LAKE RIVER...
 HIGHLANDING   12    8.4    8.4    8.5    8.5    8.5    8.5    8.5    8.5    8.5
 CROOKSTON     15    8.2    9.1    9.5   10.2   10.7   11.8   13.5   15.5   17.3
SNAKE RIVER...
 WARREN       845  840.9  840.9  840.9  841.0  841.2  841.5  841.7  841.9  842.2
 ALVARADO     106   97.5   97.6   97.6   97.7   98.0   98.4   99.1   99.8  101.5
TWO RIVERS RIVER...
 HALLOCK      802  794.7  796.1  796.8  797.2  798.1  798.8  801.3  803.0  805.2
ROSEAU RIVER...
 ROSEAU        16    6.1    6.3    7.0    7.4    8.3    8.7    9.4   10.9   13.1
         CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARY LOCATIONS
                     VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 1 2008
LOCATION   FS(FT)   90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
--------     ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
WILD RICE RIVER...
 ABERCROMBIE   10    1.1    1.6    2.0    2.3    2.8    3.6    4.1    6.9   11.4
SHEYENNE RIVER...
 VALLEY CITY   15    3.9    4.1    4.4    4.9    5.2    5.5    6.5    7.4    8.7
 LISBON        11    3.0    3.2    3.4    3.5    3.8    4.3    4.6    6.8    9.6
 KINDRED       16    3.0    3.4    3.5    3.8    4.3    4.8    5.6    8.0   12.9
 HARWOOD      884  868.2  868.6  869.7  870.3  870.9  871.9  873.5  875.7  879.0
 WEST FARGO    18    9.6    9.7   10.0   10.5   11.1   11.7   12.9   14.5   18.5
MAPLE RIVER...
 ENDERLIN       9    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8    3.1    5.1    7.8
 MAPLETON     905  895.4  895.4  895.4  895.4  895.6  896.5  898.1  899.2  904.2
GOOSE RIVER...
 HILLSBORO     10    1.7    1.7    1.7    1.7    2.0    2.5    2.7    3.3    5.1
FOREST RIVER...
 MINTO          6    1.5    1.5    1.6    1.7    1.8    2.0    2.2    2.8    3.8
PARK RIVER...
 GRAFTON       12    7.2    7.3    7.4    7.6    8.0    8.2    8.5    8.7    9.5
PEMBINA RIVER...
 WALHALLA      11    2.2    2.3    2.7    3.1    3.6    4.1    4.5    4.9    6.7
 NECHE         18    3.5    3.5    4.1    4.9    5.9    7.0    7.5    8.3   12.0
        ...DEVILS LAKE AND STUMP LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
                          DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES
                    LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
               VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS PROVIDING MONTHLY UPDATES OF THE
LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES. THESE...AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED WEB GRAPHICS...ARE VALID FOR THE PERIOD OF
MAY 2008 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2008.
           CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES RISING ABOVE
                        THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
                     VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008
             90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY   1447.1 1447.1 1447.2 1447.2 1447.2 1447.3 1447.3 1447.3 1447.4
STUMP LAKE  1447.1 1447.1 1447.2 1447.2 1447.2 1447.3 1447.3 1447.3 1447.4
  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF DEVILS LAKE AT CREEL BAY IS 1446.97 FEET
  THE CURRENT HEIGHT OF  STUMP LAKE NEAR LAKOTA  IS 1446.99 FEET
ON MAY 9 OF 2006...A NEW PROVISIONAL RECORD OF 1449.20 FEET
OCCURRED...BEATING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 1449.18 FEET THAT
OCCURRED ON JUNE 17 OF 2004. FOR PREVIOUS HIGH WATER MARKS...
SEE THE USGS FLOOD TRACKING CHARTS AT
         HTTP://ND.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOODTRACKING
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW INCLUDING CHANCES THAT
DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES WILL FALL BELOW LEVELS GIVEN IN THE
PROBABILITY OF NON-EXCEEDANCE TABLE BELOW:
            CHANCES OF DEVILS AND STUMP LAKES FALLING BELOW
                         THE GIVEN LAKE LEVELS
                     VALID MAY 26 2008 TO SEPTEMBER 30 2008
             90%    80%    70%    60%    50%    40%    30%    20%    10%
----------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
CREEL BAY   1446.8 1446.7 1446.5 1446.4 1446.4 1446.3 1446.3 1446.2 1446.1
STUMP LAKE  1446.8 1446.7 1446.5 1446.4 1446.4 1446.3 1446.3 1446.2 1446.1
THE NON-EXCEEDANCE VALUE FOR A LISTED PERCENTAGE IS THE VALUE
WHERE THAT PERCENTAGE OF ALL MODEL CASES RUN WERE BELOW THAT
LAKE LEVEL FOR THE SPECIFIED VALID PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK
THE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON HIGH AND LOW LAKE
LEVELS THAT WERE CALCULATED FOR THE SPECIFIED PERIOD USING MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS FROM 56 YEARS...1949-2004...OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
DATA AND CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE LAKE...SNOOKER IN WINTER...
AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PROVIDED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER...DETAILS OF THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK USED ARE AVAILABLE
FROM THE WEB AT:
   HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOKS_INDEX.HTML
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF LAKE LEVEL PROBABILITIES...THE
AMOUNT OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE PART OF NOAA'S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES
...AHPS.
THE OUTLOOK PRODUCTION PROCESS...
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A SERIES OF PEAK
RIVER LEVELS TAKEN FROM THE FORECAST RESULTS OF THE NWS ENSEMBLE
STREAMFLOW MODEL...ESF. THE MODEL IS RUN FOR MULTIPLE SCENARIOS
USING CURRENT RIVER...SNOW AND SOIL CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH ABOUT
50 YEARS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS
EXPERIENCED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...AND COMPARED AGAINST CURRENT
SPRING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS.
PROVIDING A RANGE OF RIVER LEVEL PROBABILITIES BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND PAST SPRING WEATHER...THE OUTLOOK GIVES EXPECTED
AMOUNTS OF RISK WHICH CAN THEN HELP WITH LONG RANGE FLOOD PLANNING
AND RESPONSE READINESS. THIS OUTLOOK IS A PART OF NOAA/S NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES.
FORECASTERS PRODUCE MULTIPLE SCENARIO HODOGRAPHS USING THE ESF
MODEL INITIALIZED WITH RECENT RAIN...SNOW AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS
IN THE RED RIVER BASIN AND APPLYING SETS OF PAST PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS 1949 THROUGH 2004 AND FOR THE VALID
PERIOD OF THE OUTLOOK.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SOURCES...
THE AHPS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED EACH MONTH
TYPICALLY BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND FRIDAY AFTER MID-MONTH.
HOWEVER...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE CRITICAL SPRING MELT PERIOD...USUALLY
FROM EARLY MARCH TO EARLY APRIL...DEPENDING ON CONDITIONS.
THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF THE PROBABILITY OF STAGE
EXCEEDANCE FOR THE FULL PERIOD AND FOR WEEKLY INTERVALS DURING THE
PERIOD. THESE GRAPHS AND EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP INTERPRETING THEM
ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS GRAND FORKS AHPS WEB PAGE ON THE
INTERNET AT:
                  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRANDFORKS
THEN CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS LINK IN THE LEFT MENU.
CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE RED
RIVER OF THE NORTH AND DEVILS/STUMP LAKE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE...AS WELL AS THE 7-DAY FORECASTS WHEN
THE RIVER AT THE FORECAST POINT IS IN OR NEAR FLOOD.
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS...CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-772-0720.
$$
TEAM FGF
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