WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION                          
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL                             
825 PM EST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...A SUB TROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO STREAM EAST ACROSS                
THE GULF AND PROVIDE SOME HIGH CIRRUS OVER THE CWA. LATEST RUC                  
SHOWS ONE UPPER LOW EXITING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A SECOND                  
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW                   
ALOFT OVER THE GULF AND FL. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH                 
OVER THE MID WEST RIDGING SOUTH TO THE GULF WITH A WEAK FRONT/SFC               
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY EASE                
TO THE EAST...KEEPING LIGHT N & NE FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT.                 
FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT THAT RANGE FROM MID 45 NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH             
LOOK ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FAIRLY DRY DAY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH                
MOISTURE RECOVERY OVER NIGHT FOR SOME FOG. BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE              
PATCHY IN NATURE...THERE WILL SOME WIND ALTHOUGH LIGHT AND HIGH                 
CLOUDS WILL BE STREAKING BY. CURRENT PUBLIC ZONES LOOK GOOD AND                 
WILL NOT UPDATE. LIKEWISE THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS IN GOOD                
SHAPE AND WILL ISSUE AROUND 1020 WITH OUT CHANGE.                               
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN. HOWEVER                
ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH...FOR ONE MORE             
DAY WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS INLAND LEVY COUNTY.                        
&&                                                                              
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF LEVY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
RKR                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL                                         
930 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...RUC FORECASTS ARE HINTING AT SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THIS              
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN OUR VERY LOOSE LOCAL                   
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN EXPECTED 10 DEGREE (F) LAND/WATER                      
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. WILL ADJUST WINDS ACCORDINGLY IN THE COASTAL              
WATERS FORECAST. DO NOT EXPECT A VERY DEEP INLAND PENETRATION OF THE            
SEABREEZE...SO OUR CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS ON TRACK. NO OTHER            
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
240 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                      
.CURRENTLY...A DRY COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM                  
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AT 03Z.                
CLOSER TO HOME WINDS WERE LIGHT OR CALM AND SKIES WERE CLEAR.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                           
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MY CWA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS MORNING                
THROUGH THIS EVENING BRINGING A REENFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR TO THE                 
LOCAL REGION. NOT EXPECTING COLD TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT SINCE             
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN ITS WAKE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT                
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION              
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY...FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME            
WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL. AS THE RESULT...THE FRONT STALLS OVER NORTH               
CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOVING EAST...OUR LOW LEVEL             
FLOW WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY TO THE EAST SATURDAY. ON                
SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW BACKS WITH A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE                     
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE               
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A            
WARM FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY               
WITH DECENT RETURN FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM.                   
HOWEVER...THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN THROUGH 00Z MONDAY ARE SLIGHT SO               
WILL KEEP THE INHERITED 20% POP OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY                   
AFTERNOON WITH A SILENT 10% POP EASTERN ZONES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MIN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S AND MAX            
TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY.                                      
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA AS THEY VEER                
FROM NORTH TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST ON                
SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCEC LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT             
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.                                     
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...THE REENFORCEMENT OF DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN LONG                
DURATIONS OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35% TODAY OVER ALL BUT             
THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS            
IN EFFECT. A WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE                
SAME AREAS DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.             
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
TLH 74 40 72 47/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
PFN 71 47 71 53/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
DHN 70 42 69 49/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
ABY 71 40 69 47/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
VLD 74 42 71 48/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
CTY 74 43 75 49/ 00 00 00 00                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
FL...RED FLAG WARNING EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.                    
     FIRE WX WATCH EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TJT/BARRY                                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
730 PM MST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES FOR THE FIRST THREE PERIODS..MAINLY FOR                 
TIMING ISSUES ON THE EXPECTED WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.             
TONIGHT...SOUTH AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND              
WILL DO SO THROUGH 09Z OR SO WHEN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BEGINS TO              
ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPERATURES              
LOOK PRETTY GOOD GIVEN LAST 5 DAY BIAS OF THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS                    
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS A BIT TO BRING IN               
CLOUDINESS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS NOTED BY                      
KGRI...FOG MAY NOT COME INTO PLAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ETA BOUNDARY LAYER            
RH ISNT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT SOME LOW                
CLOUDS THE PROSPECTS OF FOG DONT IMPRESS ME. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY             
WILL LEAVE IT IN.                                                               
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT..USED THE ETA MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE IN THE              
GRIDS. ETA AND 00Z FSL RUC II ARE IN CONCERT WITH EACHOTHER WITH THE            
FRONTAL TIMING AND WINDS BEHIND IT. BROKE THE GRIDS DOWN TO 3 HOURLY            
FORECASTS VS 6 HOURLY TO HOPEFULLY GIVE A BIT MORE DETAIL.                      
THATS ABOUT IT AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOURLY                   
TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND TWEAK              
AS APPROPRIATELY NEEDED. WILL ADVISE INCOMING SHIFT TO THE CHANCE               
THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME                          
EAST/SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON              
PER LATEST ETA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.                    
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY                                             
525 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE CHANCE FOR                      
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRESSURE IS              
FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY              
EARLY SATURDAY. FOR THE FOUR-STATE REGION...THIS EQUATES TO LOTS OF             
SUNSHINE TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK. WHILE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF            
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD HAVE NO              
PROBLEM WARMING TEMPERATURES SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES FROM MORNING                 
LEVELS. ACCORDINGLY...UTILIZED THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE                 
FWC/MESOETA/RUC FOR TODAY/S HIGHS. TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON             
THE INCREASE FROM THE WEST...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT.                
THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HAVE OPPOSITE EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES...SO               
HEDGED WARMER THAN MOS VALUES BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS MESOETA 2M               
TEMPS.                                                                          
OVER THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST FROM THE                
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH THE REGION AT THE BASE OF THE            
TROUGH...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR               
SHOWERS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD            
OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI             
RIVER. FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE REDUCED DIURNAL               
TEMPERATURE RANGE OF THE MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN               
THE AMOUNT OF SKY COVER AND CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.                           
AFTER THE PEAK CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH                
WILL MOVE THROUGH. THIS MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES SUNDAY NIGHT.                 
OVERALL...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE OVER BY EARLY MONDAY. WILL                    
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN              
ON THURSDAY AS WAS INTRODUCED ON THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. GENERALLY MADE             
NO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT.                        
&&                                                                              
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ky                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1130 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING/S SURFACE PLOT DEPICTS LOW PRESSURE                  
CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WITH ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE OHIO            
VALLEY. 12Z RAOBS FROM KAPX/KGRB SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE BELOW 850MB             
AND SUBSIDENCE ABOVE INCREASING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES                          
REGION. 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS AND INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATE A WEAK               
700MB TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE            
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TIMING            
OUT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ETA/RUC MODELS INITIALIZED TOO WARM            
THIS MORNING ACROSS MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM KAPX/KGRB                 
RAOBS OF -19C WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND 0-1C PRODUCE LAKE-850MB             
DELTA T/S AROUND 20C...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT              
SNOW SHOWERS. 900-700MB RH/S SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 40 PERCENT BY            
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 88D RADAR TRENDS FROM KMQT AND KAPX SHOW            
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST               
AREA...THOUGH IT SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEPENING             
SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING RH. I ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN            
THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                                         
CJC                                                                             
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED 4AM EST MON MAR 12 2004                            
.LONG TERM...A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE ACTION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY               
WILL GIVE NRN MICHIGAN A CHANCE TO RECOVER FROM THE WIND AND SNOW...            
BEFORE THE NEXT SHOT OF SYNOPTIC SNOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION               
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL PROJECT DIFFERING SOLUTION WITH RESPECT            
TO THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ETA IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE...DRIVING            
THE LOW ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER TO A POSITION NE OF LAKE                   
SUPERIOR BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE GFS DEPICTS A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT DOES              
NOT PUSH THE LOW EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. THIS               
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON HOW LONG MICHIGAN                
REMAINS IN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND WHEN THE DRY SLOW ARRIVES. AT THIS             
POINT...THINK THE ETA MAY HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA GIVEN THE RATHER                  
PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE PATTERN AS OF LATE. IN LEANING TOWARD THE                 
ETA...THE MAIN EVENT WILL HAPPEN SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY                    
OVERNIGHT.                                                                      
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE/SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN                 
PLACE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...RELATIVELY LIGHT            
WINDS AND A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TONIGHT TO DROP            
WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOW/MID LEVEL WAA BEGINS                
SATURDAY (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON)...BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL            
BE ON THE INCREASE. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER TO               
MID 30S WITH STRENGTHENING WAA...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT             
SURFACE HIGH TEMPS.                                                             
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH              
RESPECT TO THE UPCOMING STORM. IF ETA IS RIGHT (WHICH IS THE                    
PREFERRED SOLUTION)...INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SNOW                
(I290) WILL REACH WRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AND                  
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. DRY SLOW THEN REACHES THE CWA              
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CAA WRAP               
BACK INTO MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS BEHIND THIS LOW IS                     
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SUNDAY              
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (AT LEAST)...ESPECIALLY FOR            
LOCATIONS TARGETED BY W AND NW FLOW. AT THIS POINT...WILL TRY TO BE             
MORE SPECIFIC IN TIMING THE SNOW INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...              
BUT KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN ISENTROPIC               
ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE                    
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM.                         
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.                                    
EME                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1109 AM EST FRI MAR 12 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOKS PRETTY SOLID LATE THIS                   
MORNING. GIVEN STRONG 850 MB TROUGH OVERHEAD MOST OF THE AFTERNOON              
TO PROMOTE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND QUITE A BIT OF LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE AS PER NEW MODEL RUNS...WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE            
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS               
SOUTH AND SCATTERED FLURRIES NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL                 
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSION HEIGHT THIS            
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VORTICITY PERTURBATION DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM                 
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH WEAK TO MODEST 850 TO 500 MB                      
DIFFERENTIAL PVA/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND A BIT OF LOW LEVEL                     
CONVERGENCE...AND EVEN SOME 850 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING               
MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. UPDATED ZONES TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY.                        
&&                                                                              
DWD                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST.                                           
00Z RAOBS/WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW POTENT SHORTWAVE JUST SWINGING                  
THROUGH THE STATE...LEADING TO AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW            
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND              
LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE OF               
BRITISH COLUMBIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INTO QUEBEC BUT WITH               
TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINING BACK ACROSS THE STATE WITH DECENT SURFACE              
TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHERN              
PLAINS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF ECHOES...BUT                    
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH WITH A TRANSITION FROM SYNOPTIC TO LAKE EFFECT.           
INITIAL FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SNOW TO START THE                      
DAY...FOLLOWING BY A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE NEXT             
SYSTEM FOR THE LAKE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVE VAPOR/06Z RUC                 
SHOWS THE UPPER WAVE THAT ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT HAS MOVE                  
EAST...AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING TO DIMINISH IN THE             
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IT. HOWEVER COLD AIR CONTINUES TO POUR OVER THE            
LAKES /-15C OBSERVED AT GRB 00Z/ WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS             
THE STATE BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER INVERSION HEIGHTS ALSO QUICKLY DROP             
TODAY WITH GOOD SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THE SHORTWAVE. WITH DRY AIR AND            
INVERSIONS DROPPING TO 3KFT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IN ADDITION TO              
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NEUTRAL...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO                   
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. APPEAR THERE WILL BE                  
ENOUGH DRYING TO KEEP PARTLY SUNNY GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL END            
FLURRIES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRYING...HOWEVER AM A                
LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THEM CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SECONDARY            
SHORTWAVE OVER MINNESOTA WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND LOOKS TO            
BE THE SUPPORT FOR 06Z RUC INVERSION HEIGHTS CLIMBING BY 1-2KFT BY              
18Z. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE UNDER THERMAL                
TROUGH...WITH LIMITED RECOVERY FROM MORNING LOWS DESPITE SOME BREAKS            
OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON.                                                        
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH A LIGHT            
GRADIENT AND DRY AIRMASS LEADING TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE              
SHOULD ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND /AROUND AN INCH            
OR LESS/. ANY DIURNAL CU THAT FILLS IN THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY              
DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH BOTH LOSS OF SUN AND CONTINUED DRY            
ADVECTION...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                
HEIGHTS REBUILD ON SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 00Z                
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOW TO RESPOND INITIALLY THOUGH WITH               
LIMITED MIXING UNTIL THE GRADIENT PICKS UP...IN ADDITION TO THE COLD            
START TO THE MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE            
DAY...LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON.                               
NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS CONTINUES THE              
18Z TREND TOWARD A LESS WRAPPED UP AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION.               
THE RESULTING TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE...FAVORING MAIN ENERGY FROM               
THE NORTHERN STREAM THAT IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE               
THAT DOES NOT PHASE INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER INITIALLY PRECIP            
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOWER TO START...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF            
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. WILL KEEP A LOW            
CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT                 
SWINGS THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL              
THE FRONT CLEARS EAST...BUT WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND WILL CUT            
POPS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GFS AND ETA-XX BOTH SUPPORT             
HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY EVENING.                                                 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERNS AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE. ETA AND GFS               
BUFKIT BOTH INDICATE PRECIP STARTING OFF AS ALL RAIN EVEN LATE                  
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THERMAL PROFILES AND WEB-BELT PLOTS CONTINUE            
TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INITIALLY. MIX COULD CARRY OVER INTO              
SUNDAY MORNING INITIALLY...HOWEVER WITH AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION                
WILL KEEP IT ALL RAIN FOR NOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE                
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW             
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH               
LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...HOWEVER DEEP                 
MOISTURE REALLY DIMINISHES. WITH THIS FASTER TREND...MONDAY NIGHT               
NOW LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY PERIOD. WILL INTRODUCE A               
CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ON TUESDAY WITH THE EARLIER APPROACH OF THE NEXT            
SYSTEM AS ADVERTISED BY GFS/CANADIAN/ETA-XX.                                    
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING...TODAY...LAKE                  
HURON.                                                                          
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRAVENDER                                                                       
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
226 AM MST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE HOW CLOSE WILL PRECIPITATION            
BE TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON..A                
SECOND CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAX                       
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A COMPLEX AND                    
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA.             
FLOW IS TRYING TO AMPLIFY SOME OVER THE PACIFIC. THREE UPPER SYSTEMS            
AND HOW THEY INTERACT IS WHAT TO WORRY ABOUT INITIALLY. COMPACT                 
SYSTEM OVER TEXAS STARTING TO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND             
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING           
DOWN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIRD SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE UNITED            
STATES AND CANADIAN BORDER AND LOOKS TO BE THE SYSTEM TO MAINLY                 
AFFECT OUR WEATHER. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD AIR NOT ANYWHERE            
CLOSE AT THIS TIME.                                                             
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL. HOWEVER...THEY INITIALIZED A            
LITTLE LOW ON SPEEDS OF SEGMENT COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE                
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE GFS LOOKED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE. AT MID            
LEVELS...BASED ON SATELLITE...GFS HAS INITIALLY CAUGHT TEXAS SYSTEM             
THE BEST AND ALSO DID THE BEST ON NORTHERN SYSTEM. THE ETA LOOKS TO             
HAVE GOT THE NEW SOUTHWEST SYSTEM THE BEST. GFS WAS NEARLY ON THE               
MONEY WITH THE HEIGHT FIELD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE                  
COUNTRY. HOWEVER...IT WAS A LITTLE FAST/LOW WITH THE HEIGHTS...                 
ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO IT HAD THE MID LEVEL           
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA TOO STRONG BUT AGAIN WAS THE BEST OF THE MAIN               
THREE.                                                                          
THE GFS WAS TOO WET AT MID LEVELS WITH THE ETA CLOSER TO REALITY.               
HOWEVER...IT WAS NOT FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST WITH THE CORRECT                    
MOISTURE. AT LOW LEVELS...ETA/RUC ARE HANDLING THE WIND FIELD AND               
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATIONS THE BEST WITH A SLIGHT EDGE TO THE RUC.               
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...ARE BUILDING IN PRESSURES TOO FAST                
BEHIND THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. ALSO THE GFS HAS PRESSURES TOO               
LOW AND WINDS TOO STRONG. IT ALSO HAS LEE TROUGH TOO FAR EAST                   
WITH THE ETA/RUC THE SLOWEST. SLOWER SOLUTION IS BETTER DUE TO                  
STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE                        
STRATUS/MOISTURE FIELD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD              
SAY THAT THE GFS AND RUC HAVE A BETTER FEEL OF THE LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE RUC/ETA HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL               
DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY RUC IS DOING THE BEST. ETA LOOKS TO BE DOING               
BETTER ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES. RIGHT NOW WILL GO WITH THE RUC LOW               
LEVEL DEWPOINT AND WIND FIELDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THEN GO WITH              
THE ETA AFTER THAT. BASED ON NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS...JET FORECASTS...            
AND RECENT BIASES...THINK A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS AND THE NOT AS              
DEEP ETA WOULD BE IN ORDER AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.                             
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...LIKE THE SLOWER/FURTHER WEST LEE TROUGH OF THE              
ETA/RUC DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER               
WARMUP FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. WILL HAVE A VERY WARM START ESPECIALLY           
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAIN            
FACTOR ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES ARE HELD DOWN. AT THIS TIME...THINK             
CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT PRETTY FAST. PLAN ON GOING NEAR THE                  
SLIGHTLY WARMER ETA MOS/2 METER TEMPS FOR MAXES.                                
WEAK JET DYNAMICS STAY TO THE NORTH. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE                    
AND INSTABILITY HUG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST               
AREA BY 00Z. HOWEVER...BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850 MB TO                    
700 MB THETA E RIDGE ARE EAST OF THE AREA AS MAIN TROUGH HAS                    
WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH. SO WILL KEEP EASTERN SECTIONS DRY...BUT DAY             
CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT CLOSELY. WINDS DROP OFF LATE WITH LITTLE             
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SO PLAN ON GOING SLIGHTLY BELOW              
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...STAY IN SUBSIDENCE FROM THE JET THROUGH THE           
DAY...AND THEN MODELS START TO DIVERGE SOME DURING THE NIGHT PER                
DISCUSSION ABOVE. THINK MAIN DYNAMICS AND JET WILL BE FURTHER NORTH             
DURING THE NIGHT. ALSO AIR MASS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVELS             
WILL BE VERY DRY BEHIND DEPARTING NORTHERN SYSTEM. MODELS PRODUCE               
SOME PRECIPITATION BUT THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL LEAVE THE                
NIGHT PERIOD DRY AT THIS TIME. START OUT LIGHT DOWNSLOPE DURING THE             
DAY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES DURING THE DAY. ETA/MAV MOS                
SIMILAR TO ETA 2 METER. TREND RECENTLY HAS BEEN FOR THIS TO BE                  
SLIGHTLY COOL THOUGH. WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE.                           
FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE...MAIN            
JET REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH AREA MOSTLY IN SUBSIDENCE. WILL GO                
FOR LESS DYNAMICS...CLOUDS...AND COLD AIR. THIS HAS ALSO FIT WITH               
RECENT TREND OF MODEL BEING TOO COOL. WILL GO ABOVE THE MAV MOS AND             
CLOSER TO THE ETA 2 METER.                                                      
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                      
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS                                          
252 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DAYS 1-2...                                                                     
SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING                
WITH ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO             
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 18Z, THEN MOVE IT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE               
AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST MOISTURE AND CLOUDS                
WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD AND WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM                
APPEARS OUR FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT             
WILL BE A DRY FROPA. ETA DOES HINT AT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND               
WEAK LIFT WHERE WE WILL HAVE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW EARLY SUNDAY JUST                
WEST OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF CLOUDS BUT LIFT TOO WEAK               
TO INTRODUCE SMALL POPS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL FOLLOW 85H TEMP TREND                
WHICH SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST OF 50S ACROSS THE CWA.                          
AS FOR TODAY, PCPN MOVING INTO AMA CWA CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD.            
RADAR TRENDS DO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE PCPN ON THE                     
NORTHWESTERN EDGE. RUC STILL SHOWING OUR SE CWA BEING THE MOST                  
FAVORABLE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS HERE BUT GIVEN THE            
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WILL INTRODUCE SMALL POPS ALONG ALL OF OUR                 
SOUTHERN TIER. AS FOR TEMPS GIVEN SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING               
THE AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN CWA AND 85H TEMP PROGGED AT 00Z SUN              
EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. AS A             
RESULT MID 60S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE OVER OUR WEST WHILE WILL KEEP            
TEMPS AROUND 5F COOLER IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS LINGER LONGER.                  
DAYS 3-7...                                                                     
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO GOING EXTENDED.                                            
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
DDC 63 32 56 31 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
GCK 65 29 56 29 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
EHA 65 29 59 30 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
LBL 64 29 58 29 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
HYS 63 31 55 30 / 00 00 00 00                                                   
P28 59 35 56 34 / 40 00 00 00                                                   
&&                                                                              
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
18/15                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
325 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
OUR PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO DETERMINE PRECIPITATION TYPE               
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.                                                             
AT 07Z THE SFC WX MAP SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA AND             
SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WE'LL START THE DAY OFF WITH PLENTY OF SUN. THE             
IR SAT LOOP SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MN AND MOST OF WI, THIS WILL               
GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WNW THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH WE'LL STILL               
GET A LOT OF SUN.                                                               
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE MN AND CANADIAN BORDER               
TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.                
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE AND PRECIPITATION                
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT (MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT).             
DETERMINING PCPN TYPE TONIGHT IS VERY TRICKY. AN INITIAL LOOK AT                
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE MAINLY RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR CWA,              
AND THE BUFKIT DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THIS. THE OVERALL WX PATTERN                  
SHOWING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WOULD ALSO IMPLY              
MILDER TEMPS AND RAIN. HOWEVER, A CLOSER LOOK AT FORECAST ETA AND               
GFS SOUNDINGS AND WET BULB TEMPS INDICATES WE'LL HAVE MIXED RAIN AND            
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.  THE ETA IS SHOWING IT'S BALDWIN                   
FAILURE SCHEME IN PROGGING -FZRA IN SOME LOCATIONS WHILE THE                    
FORECAST SOUNDING SUPPORTS ALL SNOW.                                            
WE PREFER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, PROGGED CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES             
AND ALSO THE 10 KM RUC FORECAST FOR PCPN TYPE. THEY SUGGEST PCPN                
SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF PLAIN -RA TONIGHT ACROSS OUR EXTREME                 
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CWA. A LITTLE FARTHER NE OF THAT AREA,                
WE'LL GO WITH -RASN. ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA, WE'LL GO WITH ALL SNOW            
(ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH).                                                     
ON SUNDAY, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SW AS THE              
FRONT DRAWS NEAR. AS THAT HAPPENS AND WE PULL AIR OFF THE WATER WE              
EXPECT OUR NORTHERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES TO SEE LIGHT SNOW BECOMING               
MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN, PLAIN -RA ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA, AND -SN               
OVER OUR NE COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN, WE'RE FOLLOWING THE 10KM RUC                  
P-TYPE PRETTY CLOSELY HERE. MOST OF THE PCPN WILL FALL SUNDAY                   
MORNING. FORTUNATELY, QPF'S ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT, SO WE SHOULDN'T               
HAVE TOO MANY PROBLEMS AND CERTAINLY NO HEADLINE CONCERNS.                      
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THAT                
FRONT. ETA GUIDANCE LOOKS DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE GFS SHOWS                 
LIGHT QPF'S OVER OUR AREA. ONCE AGAIN WE PREFER THE GFS, THINKING               
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND AND 500 MB TROF AXIS                 
MOVING OVERHEAD, WE'LL HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT.                  
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND A               
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. THEREFORE, WE'RE GOING TO GO             
WITH A DRY FORECAST THOUGH SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.                     
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SHORT WAVE THAT DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND WILL             
DIG A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.                
DECENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST EACH DAY WITH                       
SHORTWAVE/S PARADING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN HAVE            
TRENDED COLDER WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE                
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL TREND PRECIPITATION IN THE TUESDAY AND                 
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME MORE TOWARD THE FROZEN KIND. IT DOES APPEAR                
THAT SOME WARMING OCCURS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE FLOW                  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GRR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LAURENS DUKE                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD                                            
330 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT                                        
FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STILL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO               
SUNDAY.                                                                         
SHOULD START OUT PRETTY WARM THIS MORNING AS NICE SOUTH WIND HAS                
KEPT MOST TEMPERATURES NEAR 40. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL PASSAGE MOST OF              
CWA BY 18 UTC...AND THEN PRETTY IMPRESSIVE SURFACE WINDS KICK UP                
BEHIND FRONT. WILL GO WITH ADVISORY TIMED ACROSS ENTIRE CWA FOR                 
GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. ONLY CONCERN IS FAR SOUTHWEST...WHERE DRIER               
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOW A DEEPER MIXING...BUT THIS                
AREA IS NOT IN THE BEST GRADIENT...SO THINK ADVISORY SHOULD COVER               
IT...BUT BEARS WATCHING. NEXT CONCERN IS PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH FRONT            
AND POST FRONTAL. ALL INDICATIONS ARE OF A VERY DRY LOWER                       
ATMOSPHERE. DYNAMICS MOVE THROUGH SO FAST THAT MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH              
TIME TO FULLY SATURATE COLUMN. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM ETA AND RUC                  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL POINT THIS OUT. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS PRECIP                 
CONFINED MOSTLY TO NORTHERN CWA...AND OTHER THAN TRIMMING BACK                  
STARTING TIME A FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE DRY AIR...LEFT AREAL              
COVERAGE THE SAME. DID MAKE THE CHANGE TO AN ALL LIQUID EVENT WITH              
LATER START TIME.                                                               
POST FRONTAL COOLING ALOFT STEEPENS LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO WARRANT               
CONTINUED MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN CWA TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING             
TOO IMPRESSIVE AS AIR BEHIND FRONT IS EXTREMELY DRY. BRIEF REPRIEVE             
SUNDAY FROM PRECIP CHANCES...AND EVEN WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST                  
FLOW...BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRY                    
AIR...TEMPS SHOULD RISE FAIRLY WELL WITH ALMOST 12 HOURS OF SUNSHINE.           
NICE CHANGE OF PACE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WEATHER SYSTEM ACTUALLY             
APPROACHES FROM SOUTHWEST FOR ONCE. MORE OF AN INVERTED TROF                    
FEATURE...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH COOL                             
TEMPERATURES...TO MENTION SNOW MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.                  
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                           
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE LATCHING ONTO A GOOD               
SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST                
MORE GENERAL UNTIL TIMING ISSUES BECOME CLEAR.  PERIOD OPENS WITH AN            
H5 WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW.  IF THIS                 
SOLUTION PANS OUT THE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL MOVE JUST TO THE EAST             
OF THIS AREA AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY                    
AFTERNOON.  THE CHANCE WILL EXTEND AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS THE             
COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW.  ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY            
FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE BUT THIS ONE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST AS THE                
UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THE WEATHER MAKERS MOVE BY TO THE                  
NORTH.  MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDS.  DID MOVE UP THE START             
TIME OF THE RAIN OR SNOW TO 12Z TUESDAY.                                        
&&                                                                              
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...WIND ADVISORY ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.                               
MN...WIND ADVISORY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.                                  
$$                                                                              
HARDING/KEEFE                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION                                           
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
600 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                      
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN             
LOWER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING NEXT WAVE ACROSS                  
EASTERN MONTANA TO AFFECT AREA LATER TONIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL PROFILER            
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS SHOWING STRONG SOUTHWEST COMPONENT WITH             
GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. MID CLOUD COVERAGE HAS               
INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN IA WHICH COMPARES                 
FAVORABLY TO RUC/MESOETA MID LEVEL RH PROGS. THIS BAND OF MID CLOUD             
SHOULD APPROACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF CWA BY LATE MORNING AND                     
OVERSPREAD REMAINDER OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN EARLY IN THE                   
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO             
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT             
TIGHTENS AND PRESSURE FALL BUBBLE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA SHIFTS               
EAST.                                                                           
LOW/MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE TONIGHT WITH ETA/GFS TIME                   
SECTIONS SHOWING STRONGEST MID LEVEL LIFT IN THE 04Z-07Z PERIOD.                
HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE TAF BY LATE EVENING WITH ONSET              
OF MVFR CIGS IN THE 07Z-10Z TIME FRAME.                                         
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION REGARDING 400 AM ZONES/GRIDS:                                       
LTL TO BE CONCERNED WITH TDY AS SFC HI PRES CONTS TO MOVE EWD THRU              
UPR OH VLY AND NXT STORM SYS STILL WELL TO W.  SHOULD BE A                      
RELATIVELY PLEASANT DAY WITH AMPLE MORNING SUNSHINE AND WAA PATN                
ALLOWING MUCH BETTER DIURNAL TEMP JUMP THIS MORNING.  MID/HIGH LVL              
CLOUDS TO BEGIN INCRSG IN COVG THIS AFTN...BUT STILL ENUF SUN TO                
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO MODERATE TO ABV SEASONAL NORMS.  WATER VAP                  
IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF NLY BRANCH S/W MOVG SLGTLY S OF DUE E ACRS              
SRN SASK...AND ENERGETIC SRN BRANCH VORT CENTER LOCATED INVOF AMA AT            
0900Z.  MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT IN LIFTING SRN PLAINS SYS              
NEWD AND MERGING ITS MOISTURE FIELD WITH AMPLIFYING TROF TO N.                  
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESULTS AND GUID BRINGS STGR OMEGA FIELD              
INTO FA LATE THIS EVENING.  BASED ON SATLT IMAGERY AND MODEL                    
CONSISTENCY...WILL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED POPS FOR TNGT ACRS ENTR FA.              
WILL KEEP CHC AND LIKELY POPS INTO SUN MRNG AHD OF ASSOCIATED CDFNT             
AND DRY SLOT.  RGN THEN UNDERGOES INCRSG COLD ADVCN AS LO PRES                  
DEEPENS OVR LK SUP...LEADING TO BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS SUN              
AFTN/EVENING.  WRAP ARND STRATOCU FCST TO SPREAD SWD INTO RGN SUN               
AFTN/EVENING SO WILL MENTION CHC FLRYS AS H85 TEMPS LWR TO ARND                 
-8 C BY 00Z MON. TRANQUIL DAY MON...THEN BOTH GFS AND ETA PICK UP ON            
ANOTHER...WEAKER DSTBC MOVG ESEWD INTO LWR MO VLY MON NGT-TUES.                 
THIS WILL INCRS CLOUDINESS AGAIN...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS BEST VERTICAL            
VELOCITY WILL PASS S OF FA SO WILL HAVE NO MENTION OF PCPN ASSD WITH            
THIS SYS.  MORE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING S/W FCST BY GFS TO MOVE SEWD INTO            
MID MS VLY ABOUT WED...WITH 00Z RUN TRACKING 34 UNIT VORT CENTER                
JUST S OF FA.  IF THIS ACTUALLY MATERIALIZES...THREAT OF SNOW WOULD             
BEGIN BY WED MRNG AND CONT INTO WED EVENING.  STILL LOOKS LIKE                  
MODERATION BY LATE IN EXTENDED PERIOD THOUGH.  AFTER MID WEEK SYS               
MOVES THRU...LARGE H5 TROF FCST TO RETROGRADE OFF THE COAST OF                  
BC...INDUCING ZONAL FLOW INTO NOAM...AND RESULTING IN SIG SPRINGLIKE            
WARMING ACROSS MOST OF CONUS TOWARD END OF NXT WEEK.                            
MERZLOCK                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE                                                                       
LK MI...GALE WRNG NRN LK MI TONIGHT.                                            
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1145 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPPING ESE ALONG MANITOBA/ND BORDER.               
UPR SYSTEM COMPACT AS HT FALLS OBSERVED AS FAR E AS DAKOTAS WITH SIG            
HT RISES NOTED ON KINL/KGRB/KAPX 12Z SOUNDINGS...SOME 150M AT H5.               
WIDE RIBBON OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON 280-290K SFC (H9-H7) SPREADING              
INTO UPR MI ATTM. CLOSEST PCPN HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN WCNTRL-NW WI AND            
FAR NRN MN. LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK PICKING UP SOME LIGHTNING               
STRIKES OVR N MN AND NEAR ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY ALONG WI/MN BORDER.             
STRONG TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT RUSHING NE ON 40-50KT JET IN              
950MB-850MB LAYER. FOLLOWING 12Z ETA/RUC AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS                
EXPECT PCPN TO BREAK OUT OVR SWRN CWA AROUND 18Z...AND INTO CNTRL               
ZONES BY 21Z. LARGE ELEVATED WARM LAYER TURNING UP ON SOUNDINGS FM              
BIS/MPX AND RUC/ETA NOW SHOWING PTYPE MAY BE A LARGER FOR OUR S                 
ZONES. HAVE BROUGHT RA/SN LINE FARTHER N INTO WI BORDER ZONES...BUT             
DRY AIR EVIDENT ON GRB SOUNDING SHOULD KEEP PTYPE MAINLY SNOW FOR N             
2/3 OF CWA. RUC/ETA PAINT UP TO 0.4 OF QPF THROUGH 00Z. MAYBE A BIT             
AGRESSIVE...BUT WITH SUCH STRONG THETE-E ADVECTION AND LOWER LEVEL              
JET...MAYBE NOT. BASED ON REFLECTIVITIES BLOSSOMING ACROSS W HALF OF            
WI...AND SFC OBS SHOWING PCPN IS REACHING GROUND (AS LOW AS 3/4 -SN             
AT PARK FALLS, WI) WILL START HEADLINES A FEW HOURS SOONER ACROSS               
ENTIRE CWA. QPF STILL POINTS TO GENERAL 4-7" FOR SNOW...BUT CUT THAT            
ALONG BORDER WITH RA/SN MIX MORE DOMINANT. BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO            
STAY W THIS AFTN SO...NO THUNDER MENTIONED IN GRIDS/ZONES ATTM.                 
UPDATED GRIDS OUT...ZFP COMING SHORTLY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 SNOW ADVY MIZ001>005-009-084 FROM 18Z THRU TONIGHT.                            
 WINTER WX ADVY MIZ010>012 FROM 18Z THRU TONIGHT.                               
 SNOW ADVY MIZ006-007-014-085 FROM 21Z THRU 13Z SUN.                            
 WINTER WX ADVY MIZ013 FROM 21Z THRU 13Z SUN.                                   
 GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                    
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi