AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
353 AM MST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
...WINDY DAY CONDITIONS ACROSS SERN CO TODAY...                                 
CURRENTLY...REGIONAL RADAR DATA IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ISOLD RAIN AND              
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE...PIKES PEAK...WET                        
MOUNTAINS...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS VERY EARLY THIS MORNING.             
WEB CAMS SHOWED A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL AROUND MONUMENT...SO DOUBT                
MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IS AMOUNTING TO MUCH. ACROSS THE SERN CO                   
PLAINS...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REACH THE GROUND                   
DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE SUB-CLOUD REGION. THE COLD             
FRONT HAS BLASTED SOUTH OF SERN CO. WINDS ACROSS SERN CO HAVE BEEN              
SUSTAINED 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS...SO FAR. ALL OF THIS WAS             
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE                  
CNTRL US AND CNTRL ROCKIES PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL                
UPPER AIR ANALYSES ANIMATION. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS CURRENTLY               
MOVING THROUGH NERN CO AND SUSPECT IT WILL CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS              
SERN CO LATER THIS MORNING. IRONICALLY...WITH THE COLD FRONTAL                  
PASSAGE...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM YESTERDAY                  
EVENINGS TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S THANKS TO LOW LEVEL TURBULENT                 
MIXING.                                                                         
TODAY...WILL PLAN ON THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE DRIVING             
S-SEWD THROUGH ERN CO AND THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE PARENT ULJ STREAK             
MOVES OVER ERN CO. MUCH OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE                     
RESULTING FROM THE H7-H6 AND H6-H5 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...                   
POSITIVE VALUES IMPLYING ASCENT...ACROSS ERN CO. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS              
ON THE DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND                      
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN.  WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS/WX ACROSS OUR                
SERN CO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN SHOWERS            
ACROSS THE SERN CO PLAINS WILL LIKELY JUST BE LIGHT RAIN AND                    
SPRINKLES. GFS80 IS WAY TOO "WET" WITH THE QPF ALONG THE INTERSTATE             
25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  SFC WINDS ACROSS SERN CO WILL BE               
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN            
CO CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-30KTS WITH POSSIBLE               
GUSTS TO AROUND 40KTS. AS FOR MAX TEMPS...SINCE THE AIR MASS IN SERN            
CO ARE ALREADY "MIXED UP"...THEN TEMPS ARE PROBABLY ONLY A CAT OR               
TWO AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL HIGH OF AROUND 50F.                                 
TONIGHT...THE CNTRL PLAINS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM ERN CO WITH A                 
NEARLY CLEAR SKY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT DRAINAGE SFC WINDS. TEMPS                 
SHOULD BE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN LOW LYING VALLEYS AND            
RIVER VALLEYS. INVERSION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM 6-8K FT MSL ALONG THE              
ERN SLOPES OF OUR ERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE NGT.  METZE                          
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)                                                         
MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH LONG TERM WILL BE TEMPS AND TIMING OF COLD               
FRONTS THROUGH SE CO...                                                         
ON SUNDAY...UPPER TROF SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NAM                   
HOLDING UPPER LOW FARTHER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN GFS. THIS                  
CAUSES DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF WARM UP FOR SUNDAY...WITH NAM               
KEEPING H7 TEMPS ABOUT 2 DEGREES COOLER THAN GFS DUE TO SLOWER                  
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LVL FEATURES.  FOR NOW NAM APPEARS TO             
BE THE OUTLIER AND HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE GFS. DID COOL OFF                    
MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE NAM WOULD                   
SUGGEST. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY ONCE AGAIN...ESP ACROSS SE           
PLAINS.                                                                         
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                   
EXTENDED...WITH FCST AREA WAVERING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF                    
WESTERN US UPPER RIDGE.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DROP OUT OF CANADA WILL              
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...WITH NEXT COLD FRONT               
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH UPPER FORCING OR MOISTURE...             
SO GOING DRY FCST STILL LOOKS GOOD.  MAIN COLD CORE STAYS OFF TO THE            
NORTHEAST SO MAX TEMPS MAY NOT DIFFER MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.               
TUES APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...THEN ANOTHER COOL              
DOWN FOR WED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. LONG RANGE           
MODELS (ESP 06Z GFS) DEVELOP A LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT                
LAKES REGION AND UPPER MID WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE                    
EXTENDED...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CO SENDING REINFORCING SHOTS OF           
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THURS/FRI.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS            
POTENTIAL AS THIS COULD MEAN COLDER TEMPS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND               
THAN CURRENT GRIDS PORTRAY. BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST                
THESE COLD SURGES WILL PENETRATE...WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW.  -KT           
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
930 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
...RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN COLDER BY TUE...            
TODAY...AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODIFYING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IN              
ALL SECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING              
AND PRODUCING A CLOUD DECK GENERALLY 5-6 KFT.  COASTAL TROUGH STILL             
EVIDENT WITH NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA AND FLOW                   
SHIFTING TO THE EAST OFFSHORE.  FEW CONVERGENCE LINES OFFSHORE                  
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MAIN COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN                      
SECTIONS.                                                                       
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.                 
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE                    
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST.  NORTHERN SECTIONS STILL HAVE SHALLOW MOISTURE             
SO THINK THAT POPS NEED TO BE LOWERED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR.            
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHTER JUST TO OUR NORTH BUT OVERALL THE              
GRADIENT LOOKS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEAR 20 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE              
NORTHERN WATERS.  BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING STEADY GUSTS A LITTLE OVER            
20 KNOTS.  RUC DOES NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...              
THEREFORE PLAN TO GO WITH STRAIGHT ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF THE                 
DAY.  GFS SHOWS GRADIENT SLACKENING THIS EVENING SO AN ADVISORY FOR             
SEAS WILL BE NECESSARY THEN.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOOKS MAINLY LIKE VFR CIGS EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE                
COAST WHERE SHOWERS PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS.                                    
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LASCODY/SEDLOCK                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
325 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WISCONSIN...FAR EASTERN IOWA AND            
THE NORTHERN PART OF MISSOURI. AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD             
IT WILL BE DISSIPATING. THE ENERGY WILL TEND TO STAY UP IN CANADA               
AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AS WHAT                
REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...JUST BROKEN                 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE RUC40 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS HAD              
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. AT 3Z IT HAS SOME CLOUDS              
IN THE AREA BUT NOT MANY AND IT ALSO LESSENS THE AMOUNT OF RH                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ANOTHER SIGN THE FRONT IS WEAKENING.               
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER              
END OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE AND THE LOWER END OF THE BROKEN SKY              
COVER RANGE...50-75 PERCENT SKY COVERAGE. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO               
OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG             
OFF OF THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. SO WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING TOO            
GREAT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD STOP FALLING AT AROUND THE                   
FREEZING MARK. OUR LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE             
CWA MAY BE WARMER THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST IF THOSE CLOUDS TO               
THE WEST MOVE IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TWO DEGREES CELSIUS SO MADE NOT CHANGES TO             
TOMORROWS HIGHS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.                                                  
WILL BE USING A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS               
EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                      
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED              
STATES WILL DRAW TROPICAL MSTR FROM TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTO                   
ITSELF.  ALSO...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY            
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  DURING THIS              
PERIOD...OVERALL NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A                    
TRANSITION TO A NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN...WHICH MEANS THE EASTERN                  
UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A DEEP H5 TROF THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                
THE TROF WILL BE ENERGIZED BY SVRL S/WVS DIGGING SE INTO THE TROF.              
THE FIRST ONE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING                 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO THE LAKESHORE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF               
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED ELSEWHERE.  ONCE COLDER AIR FILTERS               
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF            
SNOW.  NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL              
FAVOR NORTHWESTERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE                   
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WAA IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD              
TURN OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM            
WAA WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHC FOR SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG             
WAA/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE FROZEN TYPE BY            
LATE WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
MUCH COLDER AIR (850 TEMPS NEAR -15 CELSIUS) WILL USHER INTO THE                
GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  BRINGING A GOOD CHC             
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE             
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AND THIS IS            
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE CURRENTLY AT MID DAY. THE RUC40 1000-500MB                
RH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE WITH THE FRONT TO THE                  
WEST...THROUGH WISCONSIN IOWA AND THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RUC40               
DOES NOT BRING IN THOSE CLOUDS TIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT FOR SBN AND A              
LITTLE LATER FOR FWA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN LOWER LEVEL                  
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE                     
BREAKING UP THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES AND ENTERS INDIANA LATER                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...98                                                                 
LONG TERM....30                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE CURRENTLY AT MID DAY. THE RUC40 1000-500MB                
RH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE WITH THE FRONT TO THE                  
WEST...THROUGH WISCONSIN IOWA AND THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. RUC40               
DOES NOT BRING IN THOSE CLOUDS TIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT FOR SBN AND A              
LITTLE LATER FOR FWA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN LOWER LEVEL                  
BROKEN VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH SBN AND FWA TONIGHT. MODELS ARE                     
BREAKING UP THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES AND ENTERS INDIANA LATER                 
TONIGHT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED AT 637 AM EST)                                       
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT A BRIEF RETURN TO BENIGN WEATHER AND WARMER                   
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TODAY AS A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS                  
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF                     
RELOADING. INCREASING SSW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD                   
FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ADVECT A LOW LEVEL                
THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH H85 TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE               
ZERO. NGM SURFACE TRAJECTORIES FOR 00Z SUN ORIGINATE FROM CENTRAL               
MISSOURI WHERE HIGHS WERE IN THE LOW 50S YESTERDAY. THIS WARMER                 
AIR WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY WITH WARMING TEMPS                 
ALOFT AND AMPLE MECHANICAL MIXING IN MODERATE SSW GRADIENT. WILL                
GENERALLY GO BETWEEN MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 50S               
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KAOH AREA WHICH                
SEEMS TO STRUGGLE TO WARM ON THE FIRST DAY OF A WARMING TREND AND               
WILL GO UPPER 40S HERE. PATCH OF STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR                 
THE NE QUARTER OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THIS TO BE GONE               
BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN                
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRAPPING THE                  
STRATUS LAYER. OTHERWISE JUST A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD THIS                
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW AS AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE                   
UPPER MIDWEST APPROACHES.                                                       
TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE ASSOCIATED              
MID LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS...WITH ONE WAVE TRANSLATING RAPIDLY ACROSS              
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT PIECE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO              
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE MORE             
THAN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TO THE NW            
ZONES. WILL TREND THE NW TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE                   
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.                
WITH A WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE LOW TEMPS WILL BE            
NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW 30S.                                                    
LONG TERM...                                                                    
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.                                                          
NORTHERN STREAM UL JET SPLIT WITH MOST ENERGY DIVING SOUTH ALONG                
FRONTRANGE. GFS GETS NOD FOR BETTER/FASTER TIMING WITH THIS                     
FEATURE OVER NAM. FRONTALYTIC JET STREAK ON CLIPPER APPROACHING                 
FOR SUNDAY TOTALLY WASHES FRONT OUT WITH CURRENT TEMP/DRY FORECAST              
GOOD. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIALLY PROLONGED AND                   
SIGNIFICANT HOLIDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND NOW MODEL DIFFERENCES A                
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. NAM APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH CUTOFF THROUGH                  
SOUTHERN STATES...WHICH THOUGH IS GENERALLY A BETTER SOLUTION FOR               
CUTOFFS. HOWEVER...GIVEN APPARANT INITIAL SPEED OF DIGGING ENERGY               
NOW INTO NE CO/SE WY...THIS WAVE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RIDE OUT ON                  
HEALS OF TX WAVE EJECTING EWD. AND GIVEN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN               
WITH NEXT UPSTREAM ENERGY INTO GULFAK/150W PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN                
LARGELY PROGRESSIVE...FAVORING FASTER/CONSISTENT NOGAPS/ECMWF AND               
TO AN EXTENT GFS/GEM. NAM ALSO APPEARS TOO SLOW WITH GAMMAS                     
NORTHEAST EXODUS...SUBSEQUENTLY NAM ABOUT 12-18 HOURS SLOWER WITH               
SOUTHEAST US CYCLOGENESIS. GFS DOES BEGIN TO SUFFER WITH HANDLING               
OF CYCLOGENESIS BEYOND F60 WITH TRACK TOO FAR WEST. OPERATIONAL                 
GEM FURTHEST EAST AND WEAK...THOUGH ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT F72                 
AND 96 LEND SUPPORT TO ECMWF. STRONG EAST COAST BOMB TO DRAG MUCH               
COLDER AIR OVER GRTLKS STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. CURRENT              
FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS IN LES REGION TUE/TUE NIGHT ON TRACK AS               
IS COLDER THAN MEX TEMPS DY4-7...CLOSER TO ENSEMBLE LOWS GIVEN                  
SIGNIFICANT HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERN TROF. DELTA-T INCREASE TO AT                 
LEAST UPPER TEENS TUE AND IN CLOUD WINDS INTIIALLY 340/45-50KT TO               
BACK/SLOW TO ABOUT 320/30 BY TUE EVE CONDUCIVE FOR MULTI/MIGRATORY              
BANDS TO SETUP. NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO GRTLKS THU               
WITH HEIGHTENED SIGNIFICANT PURE LES POTENTIAL WITH GREAT THERMAL               
CONTRAST/DEEP MOISTURE/DENDRITIC ENHANCEMENT/HIGH EQL. WILL BUMP                
POPS TO LIKELY IN LES REGION DY6-7 AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT                    
POTENTIAL IN HWO.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043.             
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...44                                                                 
LONG TERM....15                                                                 
AVIATION...98                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS                                             
901 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS            
WITH AND HOW COOL TEMPERATURES WILL GET.                                        
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING AN ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE/COLD              
POCKET EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS                   
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE            
OF THE NIGHT. RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME RAINFALL TAKING PLACE IN THIS               
DEFORMATION ZONE AROUND MANHATTAN AND JUNCTION CITY. 00Z SOUNDING AT            
TOPEKA SHOWS A FAIRLY SATURATED AIR MASS UP TO -12 DEG C, WHICH IS              
CLOSE TO THE ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION LAYER. HOWEVER, THE AIR IS STILL             
ABOVE FREEZING UP TO 4500FT WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR MELTING OF ANY ICE            
CRYSTALS BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE, I WOULD ANTICIPATE              
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, 00Z NAM CONTINUES              
TO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DIVING INTO THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE              
THIS MODEL MAY BE STILL OVERDOING THIS PUSH OF COLDER AIR ACCORDING             
TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBS. IN ADDITION, THE RUC IS SHOWING THE                  
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, WE               
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO REFLECT THIS TREND. WE WILL              
ALSO BE MAINLY MENTIONING RAIN SINCE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE             
LACKING, AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OUT THIS                  
EVENING.                                                                        
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS MAY ALSO END UP STAYING ABOVE 3KFT THROUGH MUCH OF THE                 
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK.                 
SOME CEILINGS COULD DROP BELOW 2KFT AFTER 10Z. FOR NOW, WE WILL                 
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT TREND IN THE TAFS MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND                   
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.                                                           
COX                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005/                         
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
TONIGHT:                                                                        
TOUGH FORECAST. NORTH AMERICAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZED UPPER                
FEATURES A BIT BETTER THAN GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL, HOWEVER BY             
1800 UTC WAS SERIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE                   
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM. IT HAS OVERDONE THE LOW LEVEL COOL                       
AIR...WHICH MAKES ITS MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS PROBABILITY OF                    
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURES SUSPECT. PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO                     
PROBLEMATIC. BOTH NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL             
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EITHER A LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS OR WARM NEAR              
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OR BOTH. -RAIN/SPRINKLES OR MAYBE FZDZ SEEM TO             
BE THE MORE LIKELY COMBOS.  HOWEVER WITH DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE                 
VICINITY OF UPPER LOW, MIGHT SEE A BIT MORE COOLING. RATHER THAN                
GET TOO CUTE, CONSENSUS WAS GO WITH -RAIN/FLURRY COMBO LATE                     
TONIGHT. MODEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING, BUT MEASURING               
ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOUGH BASED ON                    
TRENDS.                                                                         
SUN:                                                                            
MAINLY TRACE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE EAST OF I-35 IN THE MORNING.                
NIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LOW MOST LIKELY                 
JUST OUT OF THE STATE. CLEARING SHOULD MOVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION               
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BIT OF RECOVERY IN              
THE FAR WEST, WHILE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE IN THE 40S IN THE EAST.               
MON:                                                                            
MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF               
LOW/TROUGH. COMBO OF SUNSHINE AND DECENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD                  
ALLOW NICE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR WEST.                 
TUE-SAT:                                                                        
ONLY MODEST CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.                    
OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING VARIOUS                
SHADES OF SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. UNFORTUNATELY WITH TIGHT THERMAL                   
GRADIENT...THESE NUANCES RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO                       
TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT           
STATISTICS MEAN VALUES. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE OVERALL ERROR AND RUN              
TO RUN CHANGES. MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY WAS TO COOL                      
TEMPERATURES ON FRI WITH SLOWER/DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH. BIGGEST                 
FEAR IS THAT LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS AREA LATE IN              
THE WEEK WILL BE OVERRUN BY WARMER AIR AND RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL                
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS POINT, THAT APPEARS               
TO BE MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.                                    
HOWERTON                                                                        
&&                                                                              
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                 
WICHITA-KICT    34  45  32  57 /  20  10   0   0                                
HUTCHINSON      32  46  31  58 /  20  10   0   0                                
NEWTON          33  46  31  56 /  20  10   0   0                                
ELDORADO        34  43  32  56 /  20  20   0   0                                
WINFIELD-KWLD   35  46  34  59 /  20  20   0   0                                
RUSSELL         29  49  29  59 /  20   5   0   0                                
GREAT BEND      29  47  30  60 /  20   5   0   0                                
SALINA          32  46  30  57 /  20  10   0   0                                
MCPHERSON       32  46  30  57 /  20  10   0   0                                
COFFEYVILLE     36  44  32  56 /  20  20   5   0                                
CHANUTE         34  43  30  55 /  20  20   5   0                                
IOLA            34  43  29  55 /  30  20   5   0                                
&&                                                                              
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIGHT PCPN TRENDS ALONG WITH              
TEMPS.                                                                          
WV IMAGERY...12Z RAOBS AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID LVL TROF                
FROM N CNTRL ONTARIO THROUGH W LK SUPERIOR TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS.             
AT THE SFC(15Z)...1005 MB LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER N LK SUPERIOR               
WITH A TROF TO THE SW THROUGH W UPR MI INTO CNTRL WI WHILE A COLD               
FRONT EXTENDED W THROUGH NRN MN. AREA OF LIGHT PCPN...A MIX OF                  
-DZ/-RA OR -SN...ACRS E LK SUPERIOR AND CNTRL UPR MI WAS SUPPORTED              
BY 295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROF. VIS LOOP AND SFC OBS               
INDICATED EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE TROF AND FRONT.              
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO THE LOWER 40S DOWNWIND FROM LK MI                 
WHERE SNOW COVER WAS SPARSE AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER THE              
REST OF THE CWA.                                                                
PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z RUC/NAM...MAIN AREA OF LGT PCPN              
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE E THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING CLOUDY SKIES. EVEN              
THOUGH RADAR SHOWS LACK OF RETURNS UPSTREAM...A MENTION OF                      
-DZ/-FZDZ/-SN WAS LEFT IN GIVEN DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE               
DEPICTED ON TAMDAR AND UPSTREAM RAOBS AND OBS FROM NW OF LK                     
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...BOOSTED MAX TEMPS IN LINE WITH OBS WITH                   
SIGNFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTED INTO THE W TIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 425 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                            
FOR TODAY AS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...LACK OF               
SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT...MAINLY DZ/FZDZ              
OR -SN. UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBS FROM PRECIP FIELD                 
SUPPORT THIS LIGHT PRECIP SCENARIO...AS DOES CURRENT OBS FROM AROUND            
THE CWA. WEAK COLD FRONT/COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN THIS EVENING              
WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW                  
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.                                               
FOR SUN...ALTHOUGH MODELS AGREE WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND              
HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH THE 850MB TEMPS...NAM SHOWING +7C REACHING             
THE WESTERN CWA WITH GFS ONLY 1 DEGREE COOLER...SOME CONCERN WHETHER            
MECHANICAL MIXING CAN COUNTERACT THE COLDER/MORE DENSE AIR AT THE               
SURFACE. ALSO...IF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS AS HINTED AT BY FCST                    
SOUNDINGS...THE LOW SUN ANGLE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH TO BURN OFF UNTIL             
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BANKING ON THIS SCENARIO...AM EXPECTING SOME             
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INLAND AREAS...AND A LATE                 
AFTERNOON WARMING INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST AREAS.                            
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO INITIAL COLD FRONT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING                
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MON AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE STILL WARM            
ENOUGH FOR MIXED PRECIP...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW            
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS COLD AIR ADVECTION NOSES IN. BIGGER CONCERN              
IS SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR RIGHT BEHIND IT ARRIVING MON EVENING.                
NAM/GFS SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE TEENS...WITH GOOD CYCLONIC            
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM DEEP LOW PRESSURE TRACKING               
RUNNING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS PROGGED BY ALL MODELS. THIS                  
SHOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER SETUP FOR THE               
NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE            
CWA WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW AND TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL ENHANCE                    
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z TUE SHOW AN UNSTABLE               
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH DEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL             
FLOW THROUGH 600MB. QUICK BUILDING RIDGE MOVING IN BY EARLY TUE WILL            
HELP TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT THE SETUP STILL             
LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIAL HEADLINE SCENARIO.                                       
THE QUICK BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALSO QUICKLY EXIT THE UPPER GREAT                 
LAKES REGION...AS STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY 12Z WED. MODELS              
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TRACK...BUT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF            
THE REGION ANOTHER DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SETUP DEVELOPS. NO                   
CHANGES MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FCST...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW                 
TEMPERATURE ISSUES IN THE FIRST FEW PERIODS EXPECT BELOW NORMAL                 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB(UPDATE)                                                                     
LAROSA(PREV DISCUSSION)                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
947 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
THIS UPDATE IS FOR CLOUD COVERAGE AND MIN TEMPS. SURFACE HIGH                   
PRESSURE HAS DRIFTED OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE 500 MB FLOW             
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HAS FLATTENED             
A BIT WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE W/SW FLOW MOVING ACROSS W-CNTRL PA               
AND WRN NY. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATED SOME SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS             
OVER UPSTATE NY. THESE CLOUDS ARE MAKING THERE WAY INTO THE GREATER             
CAPITAL REGION...LOWER CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY AT THIS TIME             
PER THE IR SAT PICTURE. THE 40KM RUC NICELY HAS THE 500 MB VORT MAX             
JUST SOUTH OF KELM AT THIS TIME. WE WILL MAKE THE CLOUD COVER PARTLY            
CLOUDY W AND N OF ALY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND THEN TREND TO MOSTLY               
CLEAR. ALSO...TEMPS IN SOME LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN TO THE PREV.                  
FORECAST MIN VALUES (I.E. ALB 28F AT 02Z/9 PM). THIS WAS DUE TO                 
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY ON...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM            
WINDS. WE FEEL THIS FALLING OF THE TEMPS WILL STOP IN THE 05Z-07Z               
TIME FRAME OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...LOWER CATSKILLS...                         
HELDERBERGS... BERKSHIRES AND MID HUDSON VALLEY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY            
WINDS AND THE CIRRUS CLOUDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL LOWER MIN TEMPS A                
CATEGORY (2-3 DEGREES) MAINLY OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...                        
HELDERBERGS...CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY AND LOWER CATSKILLS BASED ON THE              
02Z OBSERVATIONS. NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS WILL BE DONE IN THE REST              
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.                                                        
UPDATE...WASULA                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED AT 315 PM)                                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STORMY AND EVENTUALLY COLDER             
WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.                                
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO MODERATE.  MID/HI CLOUDINESS             
DEPARTED THIS MORNING BUT WIDESPREAD HIGH-BASED STRATOCU SPREAD OVER            
MOST OF NY N AND W OF KALB BY LATE MORNING.  DECK  SHIFTED EAST AND             
AND WAS STEADILY SHRINKING BY MID AFTERNOON.                                    
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND                    
SUNDAY.  SURFACE REFLECTION WEAK BUT H8 THERMAL ANALYSIS INDICATES              
REMNANTS OF FRONT DROP THROUGH NY SUNDAY WITH H8 TEMPERATURES                   
COOLING TO -1/-3C IN FAR NORTH.  THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW            
LAKE INDUCED FLURRIES OR SPITS.  WILL CONFINE CHANCE OR SLIGHT                  
CHANCE POPS TO SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.                                            
MOST MODEL HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON MAJOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS            
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  DIFFERENCES REMAIN WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT TO                 
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IN CWA.  GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY             
CONSISTENT FOR PAST 36 HOURS WITH A WARM INLAND TRACK.  06Z GFS HAS             
A 972 MB LOW NEAR KPOU AT 12Z TUE.  00Z NOGAPS ALMOST IDENTICAL WITH            
LOW POSITION BUT ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.              
00Z/12Z UKMET IN THE BALLPARK ALSO AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS.                
INTERESTINGLY GFS WAS THE SLOW MODEL YESTERDAY. 00Z OUTLIER WAS                 
CANADIAN GLOBAL WITH A LESS STRONG LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE AND HENCE               
COLDER SOLUTION BUT CWA PRECIP LIGHT. CANADIAN MEAN ENSEMBLE                    
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO CAPE COD.                                            
12Z GUIDANCE...12Z NAM LOOKS DECIDEDLY LIKE THE 00Z CANADIAN WITH A             
LESS INTENSE LOW...(988 MB)...TRACKING A LITTLE EAST OF CAPE COD.               
RESULTANT QPF FOR CWA IS LIGHT. WITH VERY LITTLE OVER NW 2/3'S CWA.             
EVEN WITH EASTERLY TRACK MOST PRECIP (IN SE) IS LIQUID. PARTIAL                 
THICKNESS SUPPORT SOME ELEVATION SNOW NEAR END.  12Z GFS IS SIMILAR             
TO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST...BUT OVERALL                  
SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FORECAST.                                                     
&&                                                                              
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                   
IN WAKE OF EAST COAST STORM...ARCTIC AIR BLOWS INTO THE REGION WITH             
ACTIVE LAKE EFFECT SETTING UP. LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURE DOWN              
TO 9-10C.  H8 TEMPERATURES -10/-11C WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF              
INSTABILITY FOR LAKE EFFECT. PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE                      
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE QUICKLY. WEAK SURFACE            
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MIXED LAYER  SHRINKING              
UP. A NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FLOW GOES MORE SW BY WEDNESDAY                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY TAKES UP RESIDENCE NEAR OR A LITTLE N OF                   
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.  A NUMBER OF IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT.                   
TIMING CONSISTENCY NOT REAL GOOD.  FIRST SYSTEM AFFECTS REGION                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE RECENT SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AS                
COLD AND FAVOR A MIXED BAD.  FRIDAY MAY BE SPENT IN DRY SLOT.  COLD             
AIR WORKING IN BUT FLOW SOUTHWEST...MIXED LAYER NOT LARGE AND WEAK              
SURFACE RIDGING PRESENT. THAT MAY LIMIT PRECIP.  WILL KEEP LOW POP              
-SHSN N ONLY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOME             
LOCALIZED MVFR WILL BE ENCOUNTERED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE               
ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS 4500 TO               
6500 FT MSL. THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN AND DIMINISH LATER THIS                     
AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS            
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEARLY CALM TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT FROM THE             
SOUTH SUNDAY. WEATHER IS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.                
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
ABOUT 10 THOUSAND CFS IS BEING RELEASED FROM THE GREAT SACANDAGA                
LAKE TO BRING THE LAKE LEVEL DOWN SO THERE WILL BE SOME STORAGE                 
AVAILABLE TO IMPOUND RUNOFF FROM FUTURE STORMS. IN ADDITION TO                  
THIS...HINCKLEY...DELTA...SCHOHARIE...AND ASHOKAN RESERVOIRS                    
ARE FULL. THIS IS RESULTING IN THE HUDSON BEING ABOUT TWO FEET                  
ABOVE NORMAL AND THE MOHAWK ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. NATURAL                  
STORAGE IN SCHROON LAKE IS KEEPING THE SCHROON RIVER ABOUT TWO                  
FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS EXPECTED                    
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY AND TRACK THAT SEVERAL                   
MODELS MAKE OF THE NEXT STORM WOULD BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF                  
RAIN OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS                     
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING IN PLACES LIKE THE                         
STILLWATER FLATS AND ALONG THE MOHAWK WEST OF FONDA. A RIVER                    
STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL RE-EXAMINE                   
THINGS SUNDAY AND THEN GO WITH AN ESF IF THE MODELS CONTINUE                    
TO PROJECT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. A CHANGE IN TRACK COULD                    
MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC                                          
943 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD OVER AS WINDS ON                
THE KLTX VAD WIND PROFILE ARE SHOWING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS                  
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS SEEN ON THE 00 UTC RUC               
290 KELVIN SURFACE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS SEEN WITH THE                  
3000 FT CEILING AT FLORENCE. WILL UPDATE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SKY               
COVER OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE.                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE                           
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY AND                      
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. HAVE INCREASED THE TIMING OF LOWER CEILINGS               
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHILE USING THE SAME SPATIAL                     
RESOLUTION. ADDED MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MYR AND CRE FOR                 
SUNDAY PM PER MAV POPS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE                 
ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK TROF OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. NORTHEAST                 
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST AS HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST AND COASTAL                 
TROF MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. TROF REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT MAY MOVE              
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS LATE SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO A                    
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. ONLY CHANGES FOR EVENING UPDATE WILL BE                
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO WINDS/SEAS BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.                       
&&                                                                              
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS                                                            
AVIATION...SHK                                                                  
MARINE...III                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND                                            
300 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...                                  
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT              
THEN TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER. QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED WITH NO PRECIP              
ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS/NAM APPEAR SIMILAR THROUGH THE               
SHORT TERM...WILL UTILIZE A BLEND FOR DETAILS.                                  
CURRENTLY..SATELLITE INDICATES CLOUD SHIELD ERODING SLOWLY FROM WEST            
TO EAST WITH FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE SUN. FIRST THOUGHT IS WHEN             
WILL THESE CLOUDS CLEAR. LATEST RUC AND NAM MODEL RUNS INDICATE 925             
MB RH DRYING OUT. NEXT THOUGHT IS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP. BUFKIT                   
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IF GRADIENT DROPS OFF TONIGHT...THERE IS A              
POSSIBILITY. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING            
AS INDICATED BY RUC AND NAM AND MENTION PATCHY FOG PER BUFKIT                   
ANALYSIS...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER MIDNIGHT.                           
A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE ON SUNDAY.            
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH A GOOD               
GRADIENT FROM CLOSER TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NORTHEAST TO WELL                 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST               
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING SUPPRESSED AGAIN TUESDAY                      
NIGHT...THIS TIME FROM AN IMPULSE RIDING OVER WESTERN CANADIAN RIDGE            
THAT PHASES WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW AND PULLS SOME COLDER AIR SOUTH.            
OVERALL VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.                              
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...                                
MAIN LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A            
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS KEEPS NORTH DAKOTA IN A                 
PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF SURFACE               
LOWS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIVING TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT              
LAKES ACCOMPANIED BY COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...WITH             
SHORT PERIODS OF WARMER PACIFIC AIR PUSHING INTO WESTERN NORTH                  
DAKOTA. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR             
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR THE               
WEST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND                   
THURSDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.             
&&                                                                              
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TWH/JV                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX                                      
931 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
COLD FRONT QUICKLY PUSHING SWD THRU THE NWRN CWFA WITH STRONG                   
ISALLOBARIC HIGH OF 5MB/3HR ACRS SE NM. PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM 12Z              
RUC FAVORS WINDS WELL INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY. CONSIDERING                     
ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE WINDS ESPECIALLY               
N AND HAVE ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE               
POSSIBLE LATE MORNING TO INCLUDE HIER WINDS FARTHER S. ALSO THICK               
DECK OF MID CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS PANHANDLE/ERN NM AND HAVE                
REFLECTED INCREASED CLOUDS IN GRIDS...PROBABLY PERIODS OF MOSTLY                
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE NW-N LATER TODAY. CLOUDS TO IMPACT                   
TEMPS AND HAVE DECREASED TODAY/S HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES.                     
UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 257 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005)                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE REGION AT THIS              
TIME.  ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH             
PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE COLORADO               
ROCKIES NORTHEAST INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO.                 
MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS NOTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE                
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST.  THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST            
TO ADVECT EAST THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES MORE OF A            
WESTERLY COMPONENT.                                                             
SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE                 
TROUGH IS EVIDENT VIA PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 1MB/HR CENTERED            
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.  THIS ANTICYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO               
CONTINUE TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES                    
SOUTHEAST AND AMPLIFIES...AND AS IT DOES SO...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT            
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SOUTH...REACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES                 
AROUND 19/15Z OR SO...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE RIO BRAVO DEL NORTE               
SOMETIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR GAP WINDS             
TO DEVELOP THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE PRESSURE             
GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH THAT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WILL NOT             
BE MET.  THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FEATURE ISN'T PARTICULARLY                     
COLD...AND AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE DRY...NO               
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THUS ALL            
WE CAN EXPECT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND             
AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.  WE EXPECT THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE                  
AROUND SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE PBL              
DECOUPLES.  TONIGHT LOOKS QUIESCENT AS SURFACE RIDGING AND AMPLE                
DOWNGLIDE ALOFT ARE FORECAST.                                                   
WE SEE LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MODELS REGARDING               
THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...NOT SURPRISINGLY THE NAM              
DOES SEEM TO CAPTURE THE INCREASE IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BETTER              
THAN THE GFS.  CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND GRIDS ARE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE              
NAM SOLUTION.  LIKEWISE...THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE SEEN BETWEEN               
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS...              
AND THESE GRIDS REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS.               
SKY GRIDS TRACK THE GFS 285K-295K MOISTURE PROGS IN CLOSE...THEN                
TRENDING TOWARD THE SIGNIFICANT LAYER RH PROGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON               
AND TONIGHT.  LASTLY...POP...QPF...AND SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS                   
REFLECT SIG WX NIL.                                                             
LONG TERM...                                                                    
PATTERN OF BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH                  
A COUPLE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGHS/LOWS DEVELOPING AND TRANSLATING                
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE                  
NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION                  
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ANY SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR FROM               
THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND               
OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DURING THIS TIME THE COLD AIR                  
FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE                 
FORECAST AREA.                                                                  
A SECOND STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND               
EASTERN STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS               
THE COLD AIR WILL STAY WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE SOUTHERN               
STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MAKE ONLY VERY               
SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY AS IT                     
ENCOUNTERS RESISTANCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT               
WORK WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION.                   
&&                                                                              
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NM...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
99/99                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1237 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005                                                     
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. JUST             
SOME THIN SCT CIRRUS DRIFTING NE OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS                  
MORNING AHEAD OF ADVANCING MID LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL            
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AS ASSOCIATED MID                
LEVEL TROUGH SPLITS. NAM BRINGS FROPA THROUGH KSBN AROUND MIDDAY                
WHILE GFS WASHES FRONT OUT TO THE WEST OF KSBN. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT            
IMPLICATIONS ON CIG FORECAST WITH EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK ON THE COLD            
SIDE OF THE FRONT. WILL GIVE A NOD TO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL                      
RESOLUTION OF THE NAM AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AND LOW VFR DECK INTO              
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL NEVER REACH KFWA HOWEVER WITH JUST              
AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUD THROUGH THE                  
PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.                              
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY THROUGH WISCONSIN...FAR EASTERN IOWA AND            
THE NORTHERN PART OF MISSOURI. AS THIS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD             
IT WILL BE DISSIPATING. THE ENERGY WILL TEND TO STAY UP IN CANADA               
AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AS WHAT                
REMAINS OF THIS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...JUST BROKEN                 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE RUC40 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS HAD              
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CLOUD COVER TODAY. AT 3Z IT HAS SOME CLOUDS              
IN THE AREA BUT NOT MANY AND IT ALSO LESSENS THE AMOUNT OF RH                   
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...ANOTHER SIGN THE FRONT IS WEAKENING.               
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY THE CLOUD COVER WILL HOVER AROUND THE HIGHER              
END OF THE PARTLY CLOUDY RANGE AND THE LOWER END OF THE BROKEN SKY              
COVER RANGE...50-75 PERCENT SKY COVERAGE. THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO               
OUR SOUTHWEST WILL NOT MOVE MUCH AT ALL AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG             
OFF OF THE CENTRAL EAST COAST. SO WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE NOTHING TOO            
GREAT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD STOP FALLING AT AROUND THE                   
FREEZING MARK. OUR LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE             
CWA MAY BE WARMER THAN WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST IF THOSE CLOUDS TO               
THE WEST MOVE IN FASTER THAN EXPECTED. 850MB TEMPS TOMORROW                     
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TWO DEGREES CELSIUS SO MADE NOT CHANGES TO             
TOMORROWS HIGHS.                                                                
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                                   
WILL BE USING A COMBINATION OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS               
EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE.                                                      
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...UPR LVL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED              
STATES WILL DRAW TROPICAL MSTR FROM TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTO                   
ITSELF.  ALSO...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP...WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN RAPIDLY            
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  DURING THIS              
PERIOD...OVERALL NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WILL FEATURE A                    
TRANSITION TO A NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN...WHICH MEANS THE EASTERN                  
UNITED STATES WILL BE UNDER A DEEP H5 TROF THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                
THE TROF WILL BE ENERGIZED BY SVRL S/WVS DIGGING SE INTO THE TROF.              
THE FIRST ONE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING                 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TO THE LAKESHORE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF               
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MIXED ELSEWHERE.  ONCE COLDER AIR FILTERS               
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF            
SNOW.  NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL              
FAVOR NORTHWESTERN LAKESHORE COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE SNOW                         
ACCUMULATIONS.                                                                  
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE                   
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WAA IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD              
TURN OFF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM            
WAA WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHC FOR SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.                 
SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG             
WAA/WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE FROZEN TYPE BY            
LATE WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
MUCH COLDER AIR (850 TEMPS NEAR -15 CELSIUS) WILL USHER INTO THE                
GREAT LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  BRINGING A GOOD CHC             
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.               
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE             
PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR...AND THIS IS            
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE CURRENT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.                           
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
LM...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK                                                            
SHORT TERM...98                                                                 
LONG TERM....30                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
255 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A POTENTIALLY INTERESTING WEEK SHAPING UP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE            
POTENTIAL FOR DECENT LES LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY THEN AGAIN              
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC             
UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH            
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/UPPER LOW DIVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI             
VALLEY. THE MAIN THEME FOR THIS WEEK WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN              
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...BRINGING                
COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SETTING THE STAGE             
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE OVER THE              
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER            
THE SOUTHEAST US AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. THERE IS GENERAL                   
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF              
THIS INTENSE SYSTEM...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND                   
INTENSITY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN              
OUR AREA. THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE               
DEGREE OF COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA...WHICH WILL                 
OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LES POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST PART             
OF THE WEEK. WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS THROUGH 36                  
HOURS...THEN TREND TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.               
FEEL THE GFS IS A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THE EAST COAST                            
SYSTEM...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES OFF THE MID            
ATLANTIC COAST AS DISCUSSED BY HPC. THE UKMET PROVIDES SOMEWHAT OF A            
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS...AND IS ALSO REASONABLY IN LINE             
WITH THE CANADIAN HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS              
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE            
THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY...WHICH ULTIMATELY SETS THE STAGE FOR LES            
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CONDITIONAL                   
INSTABILITY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.                                                 
IN THE SHORTER TERM...RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME LAKE                 
EFFECT PCPN MOVING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UP OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THIS SHOULD JUST BE DRIZZLE              
GIVEN ONLY -5C OR SO TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER...LIGHT                
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. A TAMDAR SOUNDING FROM KCMX AROUND             
04Z INDICATED TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -8C IN THE MOIST LAYER...WHICH            
WOULD BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR THE ACTIVATION OF ICE NUCLEI...SO            
IT APPEARS THAT THIS IS THE CASE. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BACK                
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE             
EXPECTED TO LOWER FURTHER...SO THIS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN                  
SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE EVOLUTION OF CLOUD COVER THEN               
BECOMES THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.               
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE THINGS DRYING OUT ALL THE WAY DOWN                
THROUGH 925 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS               
SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.                         
HOWEVER...THE 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS BACK             
INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...SO IT MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER THAN                     
ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z GUIDANCE. IN ANY EVENT...WILL ALLOW THINGS TO             
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME AC...WHICH CAN             
CURRENTLY BE SEEN OVER MANITOBA...WILL MOVE IN BY AFTERNOON...SO                
EVEN IF THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED...THERE             
SHOULD STILL BE SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN               
CHECK.                                                                          
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ALBERTA WILL               
DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...HELPING TO DRIVE A                
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MORE                     
AMBITIOUS THAN THE NAM...CANADIAN AND UKMET WITH LOWERING 850MB                 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY                       
NIGHT...BUT EVEN THE WARMER NAM HAS SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES              
FOR LES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND              
-10C. THE GFS ACTUALLY COOLS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -16C BY               
TUESDAY MORNING...WHEREAS THE NAM ONLY TAKES THINGS DOWN TO AROUND              
-12C. THE DEEPER COLD AIR SHOWN BY THE GFS RESULTS IN ITS HAVING                
HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IT APPEARS            
THAT THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMBITIOUS DUE TO ITS MOVING THE EAST                 
COAST SYSTEM UP THE COAST MORE RAPIDLY AND INTENSIFYING IT MORE THAN            
THE NAM...THEREBY ALLOWING IT TO HOLD ONTO CYCLONIC FLOW AND                    
NORTHEAST TRAJECTORIES OVER OUR AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.               
INDEED...THE NAM STARTS TO BACK THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND BRING               
RIDGING INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GFS DOESN/T DO              
THIS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UKMET OFFERS SOMEWHAT OF A                    
COMPROMISE ON THESE ISSUES...AND FEEL IT MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON            
THINGS. SO...WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR LES AND FAIRLY             
DEEP MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD...WILL CONTINUE TO             
MENTION LES AND INCLUDE SOME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OVER              
THE 24 HOUR PERIOD FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW EXPECTED TO BE NNW-NNE...THE SOUTHERN              
KEWEENAW THROUGH THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS FROM BIG BAY             
TO GRAND MARAIS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL. LATER SHIFTS WILL            
OBVIOUSLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL            
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA...AND HOW LONG THEY WILL LINGER...SINCE                   
AMOUNTS COULD BE POTENTIALLY HIGHER.                                            
ESSENTIALLY MADE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.               
THE GFS STILL POINTS TOWARD AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH ON                
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THE BALANCE             
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF VARIATION IN THE                  
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AS TO WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT               
MOVES BY OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS LINGERING IT JUST TO OUR EAST FOR A            
COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A LONG DURATION OF               
N-NE LES WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE DAY                 
SHIFT WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND             
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND MODIFY THE GOING FORECAST IF NEEDED. AS                 
THINGS CURRENTLY STAND...THE GOING FORECAST MATCHES THE LATEST GFS              
FAIRLY WELL...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MENTIONED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TRH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT                                      
320 AM MST SUN NOV 20 2005                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE                 
UPCOMING WEEK.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN PER                 
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SANDWICHED BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW               
OFF CA COAST AND DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN               
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH GRAZED FORECAST AREA AND COOLED 700MB             
TEMPS SATURDAY HAS DUG INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT            
OF CLOSED LOW ALONG KS/MO BORDER. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP              
AND DIG FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY WARMER 700MB TEMPS OF +3             
TO +4...CURRENTLY ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER PER RUC ANALYSIS...WILL                
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARMER              
AIR ALOFT WILL CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...BUT                  
RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE BASE OF INVERSION...ROUGHLY                
7000 FEET PER PROG NAM SOUNDINGS.                                               
REX BLOCK EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALONG PACIFIC                 
COAST...AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH                     
THANKSGIVING. AS A RESULT STAGNANT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN VALLEY             
LOCATIONS. MAY SEE FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ALONG WITH THE              
CACHE VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED HAZY CONDITIONS                     
ELSEWHERE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EXISTS BY MIDWEEK              
ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT...AND IF THIS OCCURS WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT            
ON TEMPERATURES NOT TO MENTION HOLIDAY TRAVELERS.                               
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LARGE SCALE PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO BREAK              
DOWN ALONG WEST COAST FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED BY                     
GFS/EC/UK/GEM TO MOVE INTO PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN POSSIBLY DIG                
SOUTHWARD THROUGH GREAT BASIN SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN MODELS                    
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES DURING LONGWAVE TRANSITION IS FAIRLY             
LOW...THUS HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH              
THE EXTENDED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SEE LATEST SLCTAFSLC.                                               
&&                                                                              
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
UT...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SEAMAN                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ut                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
952 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...LATEST RADAR SHWNG SOME LGT RETURNS               
JUST S OF THE ALBEMARLE SND THIS MRNG. AREA SNDGS TO OUR SOUTH                  
SHOW AMPLE MSTR IN PLACE FOR OVC CONDS AND SHWRS TODAY...WHILE                  
WAL SNDG QUITE DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID AND UPR LVL CLDNSS. RUC                  
SNDGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MSTR AND LOW LVL CONV INTO NE               
NC AND EXTREME SRN VA BY THIS AFTN. HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES TO ADD              
MORE CLD CVR IN SRN ZONES...LWR TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THERE AND ADD               
SCHC RAIN IN NC FAR SRN VA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT PSNNY SKIES AND A                
HIGH NEAR 60.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 303 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005)                                             
TODAY...MID/HIGH LVL CLDS ASSCTD WITH S/W RESULTS IN PT SUNNY                   
SKIES. TMPS 55-60. S/W NRGY DIVES SE INTO ERN TROF SPAWNING                     
CYCLOGENSIS OVR NRN FLA TDY. SYSTM BEGINS TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES                 
NE LATER TODAY AND TONITE.                                                      
TONITE...CONSENSUS IS TO FOLLOW A GFS SOLN WITH EVOLUTION AND                   
TRACK OF ENERGENIC SYSTM NXT 24-48 HRS. WAA PCPN XPCTD TO DVLP                  
ACROSS SRN HALF OF FA THIS EVE...THEN SPREAD NE OVRNITE. LOWS FM                
U30S MD ERN SHORE TO NR 50 SE.                                                  
MONDAY / MONDAY NITE...DEEPENING LOW TRACKS NE ALONG NC CSTL                    
PLAIN TO CHES BAY AND DELMARVA CNTYS...A BIT FRTHR E THAN THOUGHT               
YSTRDY. TMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE TRIPLE PT LOW TRACKS.            
SERN AREAS SHUD SEE L60S WHILE NW CNTYS STAY NR 50. SHUD GET RTHR               
BREEZY ALONG CSTL SCTNS AS WELL. WDSPRD RAIN OVRSPRDS ENTIRE                    
FA...WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHC TO TIDEWATER VA / NE NC CNTYS BRDRG                 
ALBERMARLE SND WHERE BEST INSTBLTY PROGGED. BEST LIFT/VV'S AFTR                 
18Z. RNFL CUD GET HVY AT TIMES MON AFTRN /EVE (PW'S OF 1.5 INCHES)              
DEPENDING ON AMT OF TRPLCL MSTR THAT GETS TAPPED FROM GOM. XPCTD QPF            
BTWN .5 - 1.5 INCHES B4 ALL SAID & DONE. SYSTM RACES NE TO A PSN OFF            
NJ COAST BY MIDNITE THEN TO NR LONG ISLAND BY 12Z TUE. RAIN GRDLY               
TAPER OFF MON NITE.                                                             
TUESDAY...LINGERING UP LVL NRGY CONT CHC SHWRS. BIGGEST STORY HERE              
WILL BE GUSTY WNDS BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTM. TMPS NRLY STDY IN THE                
U40S - M50S.                                                                    
WEDNESDAY...COOL / DRY.                                                         
TURKEY DAY...ANTHR ENERGENIC S/W DIVES SE FROM GT LAKES RGN INTO                
PA WITH ASSCTD CDFRNT PROGGED ACROSS FA. XPCT CHC SHWRS WITH THIS               
BNDRY.                                                                          
FRIDAY / SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW SETS UP ACROSS FA AS UPL LVL                  
CLOSED LOW ACROSS GT LAKES SLOWLY LIFTS NE INTO ERN CANADA. THIS                
TYPICALLY RESULTS IN COOL BUT DRY WX HERE.                                      
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD TODAY...WITH SOME            
LOWERING CIGS...MAINLY SRN LOCATIONS...THIS EVENING. CIGS REMAINING             
VFR THROUGH 6Z MON.                                                             
MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS             
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY ON MONDAY...AS DEVELOPING CYCLONE MOVES UP FROM             
THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE JUST A TAD UNDER WAVEWATCH...WHICH GENERATES               
SEAS OFF THE GFS WIND FORECAST... FOR THE MON AND TUE PERIOD...WITH             
SEAS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 9 FT MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MAY APPROACH                 
GALES...BOTH WITH THE CYCLONE...AND THEN AGAIN TUE WITH STG                     
CAA...BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA.                           
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM           
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1              
     AM WEDNESDAY.                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT / LONG TERM...44                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM           
     WEDNESDAY.                                                                 
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654 FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1              
     AM WEDNESDAY.                                                              
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BROWN                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
150 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                        
WHILE THIS WON'T BE A DROUGHT-BUSTER BY ANY STRETCH... IT LOOKS LIKE            
EVERYONE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. IN THE               
NEAR TERM... THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC DATA INDICATE               
INCREASING JETS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER MS AND CENTRAL                  
TN... SUPPORTING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF LA. AS THIS SECOND JET                
SPEEDS UP FURTHER TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL            
JET PUSHING INTO FL TONIGHT... STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED               
WITH THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE SHOULD BRING SWIFT                   
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SC COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE 850 MB WARM FRONT               
MOVING NORTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR              
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 300K                      
SURFACE... AND WILL BRING IN CATEGORICAL POPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT             
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST... CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY                
MORNING. AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONT AND THE BULK OF THE UPPER                     
DIVERGENCE BOTH HEAD TO OUR NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON... WILL TAPER             
RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING               
WITH THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DIMINISHING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY SEE A             
RELATIVE MINIMUM OVER CENTRAL NC WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO BE              
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COASTAL FRONT OVER EASTERN NC/SC WITH A              
LESSER MAX IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS WEST OF THE CWA. SEVERE THREAT                
LOOKS MARGINAL WITH GOOD SHEAR BUT LOW CAPE. WILL INCLUDE AN                    
ISOLATED THUNDER THREAT IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS... AND WILL HAVE TO             
WATCH ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH FORM NEAR OR JUST NW OF THE COASTAL            
FRONT. THEN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER A BIT ON THE SPEED AND                
EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL VORTEX THAT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY                
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... HOWEVER THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS NOT APT TO BE             
MUCH DIFFERENT WITH EXPECTATIONS OF A COASTAL LOW OFF NORTHEAST NC              
BY LATE MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY CIRCULATION FARTHER SW OVER WESTERN             
SC BENEATH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE HPC-PREFERRED GFS HINTS AT            
DRYING ALOFT LATE MONDAY AS THE JETLET NOW SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR                 
DIVING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER VORTEX WRAPS AROUND TO ITS               
SOUTHEAST SIDE... BUT WITH THE LOW LEVELS STAYING MOIST AS 850 MB               
WINDS DON'T GO NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING... WILL LEAVE IN             
LOW CHANCE POPS UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH CLEARING AND DRYING                   
THEREAFTER. REGARDING TEMPS... EXPECT GOOD DEWPOINT RISES ESPECIALLY            
EAST OF HIGHWAY ONE TONIGHT AND WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW             
TRENDING TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST. TEMP RISES MONDAY SHOULD BE LITTLE             
MORE THAN A CATEGORY OR TWO. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS OF MOS GUIDANCE             
NUMBERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. -GIH                                      
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                    
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE NAM AND GFS AGREE WELL IN TAKING A             
CLIPPER VORTICITY MAX DIVING THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH NORTH              
AND SOUTH CAROLINA TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT PRECEDING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW            
FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 850 MB SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP ALOFT FROM               
REACHING THE GROUND. WILL GO WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS                 
28-35. EXPECT BRIEF CLEARING WEDNESDAY WITH CHILLY TEMPS. ENSEMBLE              
MOS GUIDANCE AND PROGGED THICKNESSES POINT TO HIGHS AT LEAST 10                 
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL... REASONABLE FOR THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND                 
INCOMING AIR MASS AND WILL REDUCE MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER             
50S.                                                                            
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MODELS ARE IN GENERAL                   
AGREEMENT ON A FORMIDABLE CLIPPER DIVING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST                  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE OP GFS LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH A                 
VORTICITY MAX TRACKING ACROSS NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH                   
THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z RUN TAKES IT ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY             
TRACK THAN ITS 06Z (CROSSING NC RATHER THAN SC) WHICH HELPS LEAD TO             
WARMER THICKNESSES (ABOUT 1315 M AT RDU ON THE 12Z RUN VERSUS 1305 M            
ON THE 06Z RUN). WHILE THERE ISN'T MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE                
INFLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DESPITE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY                    
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS... IF THE CLIPPER IS STRONG ENOUGH WITH A MORE             
CONCENTRIC-SHAPED VORTICITY MAX... THE DYNAMICS ALONE COULD BE                  
ENOUGH TO WRING OUT SOME PRECIP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THICKNESSES              
AND SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE NEWEST GFS INDICATE THIS               
WOULD IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE ALL LIQUID... ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SEE WHAT              
VERY STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING IS CAPABLE OF IN THE PAST. WHILE                    
CONFIDENCE IN AN ALL-LIQUID SCENARIO IS FAIRLY HIGH... WILL NEED TO             
WATCH OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL CARRY JUST               
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW... MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND                
ENDING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS 35-39...            
HIGHS 50-58... THEN LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 29-35.                                  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: POSITIVE PNA PATTERN PERSISTS WITH THE LARGE             
COLD MID LEVEL VORTEX SPINNING AROUND TO OUR NORTH AS A CHILLY                  
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NC FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR                
SKIES AND TEMPS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS                   
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT COMING OUT OF            
THE EXPECTED CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. -GIH                            
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR AND RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FROM THE               
SOUTH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SECONDARY GULF WAVE APPROACHES THE            
AREA. EXPECT HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND LOWEST CEILINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH             
AND EAST...WITH LESS RAIN AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CEILINGS TOWARDS THE              
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS. VISIBILITY SHOULD             
VARY FROM 5 TO 2SM WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL             
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST IN AFTERNOON AS PRIMARY UPPER LOW APPROACHES            
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BEST RAIN CHANCES AND IFR CEILINGS THEN SHIFT TO            
THE WEST WITH A DECREASE TO THE EAST. -BL                                       
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD                                                          
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD                                                           
AVIATION...LOCKLEAR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc