FXUS64 KLUB 021002
AFDLBB

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
500 AM CDT FRI MAY  2 2003

DAY ONE...
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY 
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND A 
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE COLD FRONT THAT 
WENT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY HAS STALLED ACROSS THE 
PERMIAN BASIN AND OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE SOUTH 
PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND BISECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO 
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE 
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
SOUTHWEST ZONES. ALSO WITH HIGH CAPES...A WEAK CAP...STEEP LAPSE 
RATES AND FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE 
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 

FCSTID = 08

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
BIG LOW OFF WEST COAST LUMBERING SLOWLY ACROSS INTERMOUNTAIN WEST 
AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL GET WINDS 
UP ACROSS FORECAST AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GFS 
SUGGESTS A RIPPLE IN SUBTROPICAL FLOW CROSSING WEST TEXAS SATURDAY
MAY ACTIVATE THE DRYLINE AS IT PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY. CAP 
SHOULD BREAK EARLY THAT DAY...SUPPORTING EARLIER FORECAST. LATEST 
GFS STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST WITH MOISTURE RETURN EARLY SATURDAY 
SO EDGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY WEST...AND ADDED SLIGHT 
CHANCE MENTION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES 
SATURDAY ON WARM SIDE...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED SOUTHEASTERN 
ZONES.

WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY THE PROBLEM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
NORTHWEST ZONES...AND ACROSS ALL AREAS IN THE EVENING BEFORE 
SOUNDING DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. H700 GRADIENT SUPPORTS 30-40 MPH 
DURING AT LEAST EARLY EVENING SATURDAY...AND MAY YET BE THAT STRONG 
AS SOUNDING COUPLES AGAIN ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW...KEEPING SUNDAY WINDY 
AND ADDED BLOWING DUST FOR SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL AS SUNDAY FOR 
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS 
WELL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO VERY LOW HUMIDITIES 
IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS...BUT NEED TO STUDY OTHER FIRE 
WEATHER FACTORS FIRST.

BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH PLAINS 
SYSTEM SLOW ENOUGH AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRONG ENOUGH THAT MONDAY 
MAY YET BE ANOTHER WINDY DAY. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY DROP 
THROUGH AREA MONDAY NIGHT LOWERING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL 
TUESDAY WITH STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED. THE NEW GFS IS PRETTY BULLISH 
WITH THE NEXT COMPACT WAVE DIPPING PRETTY FAR SOUTH IN THE 
WESTERLIES AND RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WE BUY 
IDEA OF A SYSTEM CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA...BUT CANT GO MORE THAN 
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT AS MODEL RUNS ARE INCONSISTENT.
LOOK FOR DRYING AGAIN FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. MCQUEEN/05

FRIONA      78 46 88 49 / 00 00 00 00
TULIA       79 48 89 52 / 20 20 00 00
LUBBOCK     84 55 92 56 / 20 20 00 00
BROWNFIELD  87 56 94 55 / 00 00 00 00
CHILDRESS   81 58 95 58 / 20 20 20 10
ASPERMONT   85 59 98 62 / 20 20 20 20

.LUB...NONE.

$$