000
AGXX40 KNHC 271918
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
215 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE E GULF TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING. A WEAK PRES REMAINS OVER
THE GULF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS N OF 26N E OF 85W...LIGHT NE-E
WINDS N OF 25N W OF 85W AND LIGHT SE-S WINDS S OF 26N E OF 93W
AS NOTED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1120 UTC THIS MORNING...AND
BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF ARE
IN THE RATHER LOW RANGE WITH BUOYS REPORTING GENERALLY 1-3 FT
SEA HEIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE HIGHER IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG S OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK PRES 
PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO SLY FLOW AS WINDS VEER AROUND 
TO THE SE-S AND INCREASE WED INTO THU IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING 
LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS
THU AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT THEN QUICKLY MOVES E REACHING A LINE 
FROM NW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI...FROM 
SW FLORIDA TO THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT...
THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE E-SE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY SUN. MODELS
ALSO FAIRLY AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE 
GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT USHERING STRONG NLY
FLOW...IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. WILL
NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO
WINDS OVER THE W GULF AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN THE PRES GRADIENT TO BRING WINDS UP TO GALE CRITERIA LATE SAT
INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW PORTION (ZONE 082). SEAS BUILD
QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO 13 FT ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 
GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY BE ABOUT 1-2 FT UNDONE. 
   
SW N ATLC...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES E TO W ALONG 30.5N FROM 74W W INTO N 
FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL PERSISTS
ACROSS THE ATLC SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY SAG SWD THROUGH TONIGHT
...THEN PICKS UP SPEED WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N NUDGES
IT SE. WINDS ARE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN 
NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED N OF 25N E OF 78W WHERE WINDS 
ARE GUSTY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT E OF 65W THU NIGHT IN
RESPONSE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF
INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN
BEFORE REACHING A LINE FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE 
FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN 
WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT REACHING A PSN FROM 30N67W
TO SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA LATE SUN. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE EUROPEAN...AGREE ON SW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN WITH LIGHT NW WINDS BEHIND 
IT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE 
WINDS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS GOING WITH CONSENSUS 
ON WINDS E OF THE FRONT...AND FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 
WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM/NOGAPS/UKMET 
(W-NW 15-20 KT).

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1118 UTC THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. SO BASED ON THIS I UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS 
MORNING TO INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR THE PART FROM 12-14N 
BETWEEN 75W-78W. WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNING TILL WED MORNING
AS PRESENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE  
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
WED MORNING IF GRADIENT IS SLOWER IN RELAXING...BUT WILL AWAIT 
FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND IT OR NOT. 
ANY CHANGES WILL BE NOTED ON FUTURE PACKAGE ISSUANCES OF THE
OFFNT3.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN
SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST
OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-75W. ARUBA 
REPORTED A GUST TO 37 KT AT 15Z THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH TREND OF EXPANDING THE 20-30 KT ELY 
TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC FRI 
THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DECEASING THEM LATER ON SUN AS STRONG 
ATLC RIDGE RETREATS EWD. SE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER N TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU 
AND FRI...THE DIMINISH SAT AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCED IN 
TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN SUN WITH GFS AND CANADIAN
FURTHER S THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TRY TO 
PINPOINT EXACT TIME OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTRANCE...AND WILL KEEP 
IT TO SUN MORNING. WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT
SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NWW3 SHOWS MAX 
SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT SUN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 15N W OF 82W.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AMZ084.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE