Potato
Stocks
 
National
Agricultural
Statistics
Service
 
USDA
Washington, D.C.
 
Released April 14, 1998, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For information on "Potato Stocks" call Arvin Budge (202) 720-4285,
office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
 
Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent
 
The 15 major potato States held 129 million cwt of potatoes on April 1,
1998, down 13 percent from a year earlier but 11 percent above 1996.
Storage accounted for 32 percent of 1997 fall production in the storage
States, down 1 percentage point from last year. Disappearance of 278
million cwt was down 6 percent from last year, including an 8 percent
drop in processing.
 
Pot 1-2 (4-98)
         Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks, 15 Major States, 1988-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :         :         :         :         :         :
   Year  :Production:  Dec 1  :  Jan 1  :  Feb 1  :  Mar 1  :  Apr 1  :  May 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                              1,000 Cwt
         :
1988     : 305,623    206,420   177,750   151,050   124,485    92,585    59,355
1989     : 316,097    202,050   173,550   144,290   116,600    84,320    50,675
1990     : 344,200    225,500   194,460   162,850   134,470   101,150    63,040
1991     : 363,541    242,070   211,005   178,515   145,820   108,865    69,110
1992     : 368,516    246,820   215,990   184,560   152,795   115,785    75,040
1993     : 375,004    249,710   217,800   186,090   154,135   115,970    73,860
1994     : 408,139    272,290   237,960   201,870   168,970   128,825    87,500
1995     : 392,942    256,310   223,150   188,960   155,720   116,255    76,170
1996     : 442,752    295,100   262,120   227,080   189,410   147,885   102,810
1997     : 407,164    274,250   240,850   205,850   170,325   129,340
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
 
          Potatoes:  Quantity Used for Processing, 8 States, 1995-97 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State and     :        :        :        :       :       :       :
     Crop Year     : Dec 1  : Jan 1  : Feb 1  : Mar 1 : Apr 1 : May 1 : Season
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   :                         1,000 Cwt
                   :
ID & OR-Malheur Co :
  1995             : 27,310   35,040   43,260   51,530  59,060  66,690   89,250
  1996             : 31,060   38,210   45,420   54,640  62,570  70,720   96,970
  1997             : 26,880   33,950   41,050   49,470  57,620
                   :
ME 2/              :
  1995             :  1,455    1,850    2,430    2,850   3,435   3,965    5,725
  1996             :  1,790    2,115    2,820    3,280   3,820   4,420    6,495
  1997             :  1,245    1,655    2,285    2,725   3,335
                   :
WA & OR - Other    :
  1995             : 30,000   35,170   39,460   45,280  51,730  57,360   70,250
  1996             : 31,670   36,660   41,700   48,740  55,570  62,320   80,970
  1997             : 28,580   33,990   38,690   46,400  53,720
                   :
Oth Sts 3/         :
  1995             : 12,650   15,630   18,815   21,985  25,510  28,610   33,580
  1996             : 13,660   16,570   20,140   23,510  26,990  29,890   40,275
  1997             : 11,335   13,550   16,615   19,335  22,775
                   :
Total              :
  1995             : 71,415   87,690  103,965  121,645 139,735 156,625  198,805
  1996             : 78,180   93,555  110,080  130,170 148,950 167,350  224,710
  1997             : 68,040   83,145   98,640  117,930 137,450
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in
    which the potatoes were produced.  Amount excludes quantities used for
    potato chips in ME, MI, MN, ND, and WI.
2/  Includes Maine grown potatoes only.
3/  MI, MN, ND, and WI.
          Fall Potatoes:  Production and Stocks on April 1, 1997-98 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :          Crop of 1996          :         Crop of 1997
               :----------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :          :  Stocks  :    %     :          :  Stocks  :    %
               :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :    of    :   Prod   :  Apr 1,  :   of
               :          :   1997   :   Prod   :          :   1998   :  Prod
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               : ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent    ---- 1,000 Cwt ---    Percent
               :
CA             :   4,600      1,700       37        4,200      1,600      38
CO             :  29,175     12,900       44       25,377     11,000      43
ID             : 142,800     56,000       39      135,430     51,000      38
ME             :  21,175      8,400       40       19,170      7,400      39
MI             :  13,800      1,900       14       14,250      2,600      18
MN             :  24,600      8,500       35       20,440      6,800      33
MT             :   3,213      1,900       59        3,328      2,000      60
NE 2/          :   4,402      1,025                 7,527      1,510
NY             :   7,980        350        4        8,408        250       3
ND             :  28,820     10,000       35       21,525      7,700      36
OH 2/          :   1,275                            1,175
OR             :  30,124     13,300       44       27,161      9,800      36
PA             :   4,208        410       10        3,190        380      12
WA             :  94,990     23,000       24       88,060     22,500      26
WI             :  31,590      8,500       27       27,923      4,800      17
               :
15 States      : 442,752    147,885       33      407,164    129,340      32
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  Stocks include processor holdings and seed to plant 1998 potatoes.  1997
    crop seed usage totaled 28.9 million cwt.
2/  Combined to prevent possible disclosure of individual operations.
 
 
 
Note: Stocks are the quantity (whether sold or not) remaining in storage
for all purposes and uses, including seed potatoes not yet moved and
shrinkage, waste, and other losses that occur after the date of each
report. Sales of fall potatoes for all purposes for the past 5 years
averaged 90.5 percent of the total fall production. Shrinkage, loss, and
home use account for the remaining 9.5 percent. Most seed for use the
following year is on hand but remains as part of stocks until planted.
 
 
 
            Potatoes:  Production, Sold, Not Sold, and Kept for Seed,
                             United States, 1992-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :                     Fall Potatoes                     : Amount Used
          :-------------------------------------------------------:  for Seed
   Crop   :             :         :   Sold   :         : Not Sold : All Seasons
   Year   : Production  :  Sold   : as % of  :Not Sold : as % of  :  Following
          :             :         :   Prod   :         :   Prod   :    year
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :   ---- 1,000 Cwt ----   Percent   1,000 Cwt  Percent     1,000 Cwt
          :
1992      :   379,525     341,209     89.9     38,316      10.1       28,275
1993      :   385,935     351,161     91.0     34,774       9.0       29,031
1994      :   419,645     382,333     91.1     41,312       9.8       29,348
1995      :   403,009     368,946     91.5     34,063       8.5       30,582
1996      :   453,436     407,326     89.8     46,110      10.2       28,941
1997      :   417,088
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
       Fall Potatoes:  Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                       15 States and Fall Season,  1994-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :           :          :          :        Farm Disposition
            :           :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
    State   :           :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
     and    :Production :  Apr 1   :   For    :----------------------:
  Crop Year :           :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
            :           :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                             1,000 Cwt
            :
CA    1994  :    5,600      2,100       286          60         500      5,040
      1995  :    5,330      1,700       242          10         460      4,860
      1996  :    4,600      1,700       200          23         472      4,105
      1997  :    4,200      1,600
            :
CO    1994  :   25,795      8,500     1,925       1,210       2,040     22,545
      1995  :   23,808      9,100     1,950       1,285       2,048     20,475
      1996  :   29,175     12,900     1,925       1,485       3,975     23,715
      1997  :   25,377     11,000
            :
ID    1994  :  138,801     55,000     8,400       1,535       9,659    127,607
      1995  :  132,657     49,500     8,700       1,785       8,920    121,952
      1996  :  142,800     56,000     8,400       1,500      10,100    131,200
      1997  :  135,430     51,000
            :
ME    1994  :   18,375      5,200     1,716         525       2,850     15,000
      1995  :   17,160      5,700     1,716         420       1,025     15,715
      1996  :   21,175      8,400     1,628         395       1,800     18,980
      1997  :   19,170      7,400
            :
MI    1994  :   11,310      2,500       963         174       1,350      9,786
      1995  :   16,350      2,700       962         168         690     15,492
      1996  :   13,800      1,900       784         300       1,300     12,200
      1997  :   14,250      2,600
            :
MN    1994  :   17,755      6,000     1,693         458       1,668     15,629
      1995  :   20,790      6,800     1,573         346       1,757     18,687
      1996  :   24,600      8,500     1,383         445       4,158     19,997
      1997  :   20,440      6,800
            :
MT    1994  :    3,200      1,950       216         142         192      2,866
      1995  :    2,940      1,750       239         128         147      2,665
      1996  :    3,213      1,900       239         137         221      2,855
      1997  :    3,328      2,000
            :
NE 1/ 1994  :    3,996        705       300         217         311      3,468
      1995  :    3,680        705       292         187         284      3,209
      1996  :    4,402      1,025       449         169         439      3,794
      1997  :    7,527      1,510
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     --continued
       Fall Potatoes:  Production, April 1 Stocks, and Farm Disposition,
                 15 States and Fall Season,  1994-97 (continued)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :           :          :          :        Farm Disposition
            :           :          :  Total   :---------------------------------
    State   :           :  Stocks  :   Used   :     Where Grown      :
     and    :Production :  Apr 1   :   For    :----------------------:
  Crop Year :           :          :   Seed   :Seed, Feed,:Shrinkage :   Sold
            :           :          :          : Home Use  : and Loss :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                             1,000 Cwt
            :
NY    1994  :    7,805        450        648        131         417      7,257
      1995  :    7,695        400        648        155         290      7,250
      1996  :    7,980        350        660        140         370      7,470
      1997  :    8,408        250
            :
ND    1994  :   28,200      7,500      2,125        335       4,365     23,500
      1995  :   25,410      7,000      2,211        280       2,800     22,330
      1996  :   28,820     10,000      2,188        360       5,270     23,190
      1997  :   21,525      7,700
            :
OH 1/ 1994  :    1,348                   110         22          11      1,315
      1995  :    1,404                   107          4          10      1,390
      1996  :    1,275                   105          5          35      1,235
      1997  :    1,175
            :
OR    1994  :   27,514     10,100      1,242        222       2,055     25,237
      1995  :   24,788      7,500      1,475        148       1,450     23,190
      1996  :   30,124     13,300      1,357        305       2,560     27,259
      1997  :   27,161      9,800
            :
PA    1994  :    3,780        420        342         17         362      3,401
      1995  :    4,080        400        323         20         102      3,958
      1996  :    4,208        410        361         83         325      3,800
      1997  :    3,190        380
            :
WA    1994  :   88,920     23,500      3,528        300       7,000     81,620
      1995  :   80,850     18,000      3,912        300       6,400     74,150
      1996  :   94,990     23,000      3,552        300       6,800     87,890
      1997  :   88,060     22,500
            :
WI    1994  :   25,740      4,900      1,640        257       1,802     23,681
      1995  :   26,000      5,000      1,743        288       1,250     24,462
      1996  :   31,590      8,500      1,560        305       1,360     29,925
      1997  :   27,923      4,800
            :
15 Sts      :
      1994  :  408,139    128,825     25,134      5,605      34,582    367,952
      1995  :  392,942    116,255     26,093      5,524      27,633    359,785
      1996  :  442,752    147,885     24,791      5,952      39,185    397,615
      1997  :  407,164    129,340
            :
23 Fall Sts :
      1994  :  419,645                25,872      5,671      35,641    378,333
      1995  :  403,009                26,813      5,559      28,504    368,946
      1996  :  453,436                25,444      6,054      40,056    407,326
      1997  :  417,088
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Stocks combined to prevent disclosure of individual operations.
 
                Fall Potatoes:  Farm Marketings, Selected States,
                             1994-96 Marketing Years
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State     :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
      and      :Jul :Aug :Sep :Oct :Nov :Dec :Jan :Feb :Mar :Apr :May :Jun :Jul
   Crop Year   :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :    :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               :                            Percent
               :
CO  1994       :            5    9   11   11   11   10   12   10    9    8    4
    1995       :            4    8   10   10   11   10   10   12   10    9    6
    1996       :            4    7    9    9   10    9   10   11   10   11   10
               :
ID  1994       :       4   15   19    5    7    5    5    7   12    9    6    6
    1995       :       4   16   17    6    7    6    6    9    8    8    7    6
    1996       :       6   14   18    7    5    6    6    9    8    8    6    7
               :
ME  1994       :       3    6   11    8   11   12   10   16   14    6    3
    1995       :       2    5    7    9    9   11   11   17   18    7    4
    1996       :       1    8    7    7    8   10    9   14   16    9   11
               :
MI  1994       : 4     9   15   10   11    8   10    9   11    9    3    1
    1995       :       5   11   15   13   13   11    6    9   11    6
    1996       : 1     9   10   11   11    9   12   11   10    9    5    2
               :
MN  1994       :       4   24   26    8    4    5    5    6    8    6    4
    1995       :       2   30   26    6    4    5    5    6    8    6    2
    1996       :       6   22   19   11    5    5    7    8    8    5    4
               :
NY  1994       :       3   24   15   12   15   17    7    3    4
    1995       :       6   15   15   17   16   12    8    6    4    1
    1996       :       7   17   17   14   14   10    8    7    4    2
               :
ND  1994       :       2   15   10    9   11   13    8   10    9    9    3    1
    1995       :       3   14   16    9   10    9    9    8    9   11    2
    1996       :       4   12   22    8    7    7    8   10    7    6    7    2
               :
OR  1994       : 2    11   14   25    8    6    6    5    6    6    6    5    2
    1995       : 1    12   16   25    7    6    6    5    6    7    7    2    2
    1996       : 1    14   16   26    7    5    5    5    4    6    5    5    2
               :
PA  1994       :      15   21   14   14   10    9    7    6    3    1
    1995       :      18   18   18   13   13    9    5    3    2    1
    1996       : 1    12   15   13   11    9   10    8    9    6    4    2
               :
WA  1994       :      16   13   24    6    4    5    6    6    6    7    5    2
    1995       :      16   13   32    7    3    4    4    7    5    4    4    1
    1996       :      17   11   31    8    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    2
               :
WI  1994       : 1     8   19   14   11    8    9    9   10    6    4    1
    1995       : 1     9   17   13   12    7   10    9   11    8    3
    1996       : 1     6   20   14   10    7    8   11    9    7    4    3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Potato Stocks Down 13 Percent
 
April 1, 1998, potato stocks totaled 129 million cwt, down 13 percent
from a year earlier but 11 percent above two years ago. Disappearance
was 278 million cwt, 6 percent below a year ago but up less than 1
percent from two years ago. Processing accounted for 137 million cwt
through March, 8 percent less than last year and 2 percent short of two
years ago. Seasonal shrink and loss of 24.5 million cwt was down 14
percent from last year.
 
Disappearance from the start of harvest to April 1 was 278 million cwt
this season, down 6 percent from the same period a year earlier and less
than 1 percent above two years ago. Disappearance during March was 41.0
million cwt, down 1 percent from last year but 4 percent above two years
ago. Seasonal shrink and loss was estimated at 24.5 million cwt, down 14
percent from last year and 9 percent below two years ago.
 
Processing of 1997 crop potatoes totaled 137 million cwt so far this
season, down 8 percent from last year and 2 percent below two years ago.
March processing claimed 19.5 million cwt of potatoes, up 4 percent from
last year and 8 percent above two years ago.
 
Eastern States stored 8.03 million cwt of potatoes on April 1, 1998,
down 12 percent from a year ago but 24 percent above 1997. Stocks in
Maine were down 12 percent from last year. Pennsylvania's stocks were
down 7 percent, and New York's holdings were down 29 percent from last
year.
 
Central States' storage accounted for 23.4 million cwt of potatoes this
month, down 22 percent from 1997 but 5 percent above 1996. Wisconsin's
stocks dropped 44 percent, North Dakota's stocks fell 23 percent, and
Minnesota's stocks slipped 20 percent from a year ago. Michigan's
holdings were up 37 percent, and Nebraska's stocks increased 50 percent.
 
Western States held 97.9 million cwt of potatoes in storage on April 1,
1998, down 10 percent from last year but 12 percent above 1996. Idaho's
stocks fell 9 percent from a year ago but were 3 percent above two years
ago. Idaho's storage held more than half of the western stocks.
Colorado's stocks were down 15 percent, Oregon's stocks were off 26
percent from last year, and California's stocks dropped 6 percent.
Washington's stocks were off 2 percent from last year, but Montana's
seed growers gained 5 percent. Each of the Western States, except
California, had more potatoes in storage than two years ago. 
Reliability of April Stocks Estimates
 
The "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 stocks estimate is 5.0
percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current
estimate of 129 million cwt will not be above or below the final
estimate by more than 5.0 percent or approximately 6.47 million cwt.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the
difference will not exceed 8.7 percent or 11.3 million cwt.
 
The 10-year (1986-96) record of difference between the April 1 Stocks
estimate and the final estimates averaged 4.90 million cwt, ranging from
0.01 million cwt to 12.8 million cwt. During this 10-year period, the
April 1 estimate has been below the final estimate 9 out of 10 years.
 
 
 
 
            Fall Potato Stocks:  Preliminary and Final April Stocks,
                             United States, 1987-97
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop   :      Preliminary      :        % of         :         Final
   Year   :        Stocks         :        Final        :       Stocks 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          :       1,000 Cwt               Percent               1,000 Cwt
          :
1987      :        105,895                 100.0                 105,905
1988      :         86,745                  93.7                  92,585
1989      :         83,540                  99.1                  84,320
1990      :         91,910                  90.9                 101,150
1991      :        109,600                 100.7                 108,865
1992      :        103,010                  89.0                 115,785
1993      :        108,455                  93.5                 115,970
1994      :        123,285                  95.7                 128,825
1995      :        112,925                  97.1                 116,255
1996      :        143,235                  96.9                 147,885
1997      :        129,340
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/  As reported in the September "Potato" annual report.
 
 
 
 
 
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