AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL                                        
802 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.PUBLIC...PROSPECTS OF STORMS ENDING EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE            
CWA ARE LOOKING GOOD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDED OVER SE GEORGIA IN            
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND STEERING FLOW IS NOW PUSHING THEM TO THE NW.              
BOTH THE RUC AND WRFHOT...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SHOW A N-S               
ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT JUST WEST OF THE CWA            
WHICH IS FARTHER WEST THAN PAST COUPLE NIGHTS. STORMS APPEAR TO BE              
ENDING OVER WRN HAMILTON AND ECHOLS COUNTIES...WHILE STORMS IN                  
CLINCH CO WILL CONTINUE MOVING NW INTO OUR NWRN ZONES. WILL UPDATE              
FCST AFTER CONVECTION ENDS TO REMOVE EVENING POPS. OTHERWISE NO                 
CHANGES.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS ARE RUNNING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2 FT AT THE BUOYS.                
MODELS SHOW A SLOW DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT IF THE OBS REMAIN IN THIS             
RANGE...WILL INCREASE WINDS FOR REST OF NIGHT. SELY FLOW WILL BRING             
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE NIGHT OVER THE WATERS.                           
&&                                                                              
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
FL...NONE.                                                                      
GA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MKT/PC                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL                                           
10 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                        
...SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INLAND...                    
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LCL AIRMASS IS PRIMED FOR DIURNAL COVECTION...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW            
PW VAULES ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE 1.8"-2.0".  FURTHERMORE...A WEAK             
WIND PROFILE THROUGH H50 WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO FORM BY MIDDAY             
AND BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND.  ALSO...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOCAL             
H50 VORT MAX DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND A LCL H30-H20 SPEED MAX OVER THE             
SRN PENINSULA GENERATING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE.                                    
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS CONTAINING             
VERY HEAVY RAIN. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED SPOTS (MAINLY INTERIOR) WILL            
PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.                                                  
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF STREAM IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF                      
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. ONLY NEED MINOR REFRESHMENT CHANGES TO THE             
MORNING FORECAST.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING HAS               
PUT DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE BREVARD COUNTY             
COAST. ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE TREASURE                
COAST AND TOGETHER MAY TRIGGER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG OR JUST              
INLAND FROM THE COAST. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF                
SHIFTING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE FL PENINSULA WHERE                     
INSTABILITY IS INCREASING WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.  ONSHORE FLOW                
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTN SOUTH LEG WITH SEAS                   
REMAINING 2 TO 3 FEET.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BUT WITH INCREASING MVFR/IFR CONVECTION               
AFT 17Z.  STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING                   
CURRENTS...IF ONE AFFECTS A TAF SITE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL                 
OF PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR MORE.                                
&&                                                                              
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PUBLIC...BRAGAW                                                                 
MARINE...KELLY                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   fl                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1045 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TO LOWER CONVECTION CHANCES              
TO 30% OVER EASTERN IL WHILE KEEPING 40% WEST OF I-57. PARTLY TO                
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS FROM 65 TO 70 DEGREES WITH SOUTH TO SE            
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.                                                              
AN MCS SENT A SQUALL LINE SE THROUGH CENTRAL/SE IL BETWEEN 1 AND 7              
PM WITH A FEW AREAS OF SEVERE WIND DAMAGE. CONVECTION FROM THIS MCS             
HAS MOVED INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL...SE MO AND WESTERN KY WITH CLOUD                
COVER DECREASING OVER CENTRAL IL. ANOTHER MCS WAS OVER EAST KS AND              
NW MO AND AND DEVELOPING NE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA ON THE NOSE OF A LOW             
LEVEL JET. CONVECTION JUST WEST OF KIRKSVILLE MO AND OTTUMA IOWA.               
SURFACE MAP HAS 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE WINNIPEG                
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH TO A 1002 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL KS.             
WIDESPREAD RAIN AVERAGING A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH FROM MCS OVER                
CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS COOLED TEMPS TO                 
AROUND 70F AND A FEW DEGREES FROM THE DEWPOINTS. TEMPS TO SETTLE                
TOWARD THE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND COULD ALLOW PATCHY             
FOG TO DEVELOP WITH FAIRLY LIGHT SSE WINDS. RUC SHOWS QPF MOVING                
INTO NW IL LATER TONIGHT FROM THE IL RIVER NW FROM MCS WEST OF IL               
WHILE NAM IS FAIRLY DRY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATER                 
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE MCS TODAY AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM.              
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...                                    
MSAS DATA SHOWS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING MCS.                 
STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPED BEHIND IT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH BOW ECHO            
ON FORWARD EDGE OF LINE THAT INTERSECTED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT             
PUSHED SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST IL STORMS.                                          
NO CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY...AS FRONT STAYS WEST OF AREA. DID NOT                
CHANGE POPS AS UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINS IN REGION.                     
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                       
NO CHANGES IN SITUATION THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY, THE GFSLR                  
FINALLY BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT FRONT THROUGH STATE AND INTO THE EAST              
COAST BY WEDNESDAY. FOREIGN MODELS ALL DO NOT DRIVE THE FRONT THAT              
FAR AND WITH BERMUDA HIGH ANCHORED IN SOUTHEAST US, FEEL THE                    
AGGRESIVE FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS WAY OUT OF LINE. THEREFORE MODIFIED               
WINDS ON TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY, PLUS INCREASED THE TEMPERATURES AND              
DEW POINTS.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
GOETSCH/HUETTL                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
300 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTEROON ZONES/GRIDS...                                         
FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL CENTER ON SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER              
POTENTIAL AND THEN CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.                      
ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER             
ACROSS THE AREA. MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS DAKOTAS LAST NIGHT NOW                  
BEGINNING TO TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. REGIONAL RADAR                   
SHOWING APEX OF BOW ECHO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER TO               
THE NORTH HAVE HAD NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY               
ASSOCIATED WITH MCS. STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN PRODUCING RATHER INTENSE OUTFLOWS OF THEIR OWN               
AND EXPECTING THREATS THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH              
ALONG WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND              
14K FEET AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 12K FEET.                                       
OTHER CONCERN THIS EVENING IS WITH ANY MESOSCALE ENHANCED WINDS.                
APPROACHING MCS HAS PRODUCED QUITE A STRONG MESOSCALE PRESSURE                  
PATTERN WITH MESOHIGH BUILDING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. WIND GUSTS              
TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA ON BACK                
SIDE OF MESOHIGH. EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS STRONGER WIND FIELD TO                 
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AS MESOHIGH               
DROPS SOUTHWARD BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLY STRONGER             
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING.                              
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS              
EVENING WITH THREAT REFOCUSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS                  
TONIGHT WITH STRONG NOCTURNAL JET. NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE                 
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES PROGRESS             
THROUGH UPPER LEVEL SWRYLS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW STILL PROGGED              
TO REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SO IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL                
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH INSTABILITY/MARGINAL SHEAR SCENARIOS.                 
SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS TOWARD BEGINNING/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH              
TIME OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TO DAMPEN RIDGE AND FINALLY                 
BRING A SIGNFICANT FROPA TO THE AREA. HAVE RELIED MORE ON 06Z GFS               
SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WHICH GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM GEM/ECMWF IN             
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TUES/WEDS. WILL END             
PRECIP CHANCES EARLY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR                 
WORKING IN.                                                                     
NDM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS HERE AS TIME IS SHORT             
DUE TO INCREASING TS ACTIVITY...                                                
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS.                      
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ROCKFORD AREA AND SCATTERED            
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AT 18Z.  THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS...SO WILL NOT GO                   
PREVAILING TS IN THE TAFS INITIALLY...VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.                
WINDS LOOKING TO GO GUSTY SW TO W FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE              
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SETTING BACK TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY.             
EXCEPT INVOF TS...CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING.                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO NEAR CALM...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE...LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE INTO THE MORNING               
HOURS.                                                                          
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET              
AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR              
KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED               
AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO               
WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND             
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER              
LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN              
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM                 
SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE              
BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME                  
RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL                 
CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN             
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90             
AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG               
RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO.            
INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF            
OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.               
OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS                  
MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH             
THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA             
(NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN                   
CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED                                 
INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS              
FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL                 
INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED            
ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING               
HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR                   
PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE                   
SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL                 
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND                           
FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM            
ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE                  
HINTED AT.                                                                      
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
647 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...                                            
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAIN MAIN TAF CONCERNS.                      
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE ROCKFORD AREA AND SCATTERED            
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AT 18Z.  THE TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO              
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS...SO WILL NOT GO                   
PREVAILING TS IN THE TAFS INITIALLY...VCTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.                
WINDS LOOKING TO GO GUSTY SW TO W FOR A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING THE              
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY BEFORE SETTING BACK TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY.             
EXCEPT INVOF TS...CIGS/VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE EVENING.                  
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AND AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO NEAR CALM...AND WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL              
MOISTURE...LOOKING FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE INTO THE MORNING               
HOURS.                                                                          
...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS HERE AS TIME IS SHORT             
DUE TO INCREASING TS ACTIVITY...                                                
CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HAS PUSHED A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY              
INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 88D...LOCAL MESONET              
AND METARS PLACING WIND SHIFT ROUGHLY FROM NORTH OF KRFD...TO NEAR              
KPWK...TO ABOUT THE FORMER KCGX. BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED               
AND MAY BE DRIFTING BACK NORTH...WITH SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO               
WIND FIELD AT ALL TAF SITES. QUESTION ARISES WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND             
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED LIGHT WIND FIELD THIS MORNING AS TO WHETHER              
LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER INLAND THAN              
OTHERWISE EXPECTED. NAM/GFS/RUC ALL INDICATE 950 HPA WINDS FROM                 
SOUTH AT 10-14 KTS TODAY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAK SOUTHEAST LAKE              
BREEZE INTO LAKE CO IL...BUT REMAINING EAST OF KORD/KMDW. SOME                  
RECOVERY TO SOUTH FLOW BEHIND OUTFLOW ALREADY...SO FOR NOW WILL                 
CONTINUE IDEA OF NO LAKE BREEZE INTO KORD/KMDW TODAY.                           
ATTENTION THEN TURNS QUICKLY TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AIRMASS AGAIN             
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY...WITH SFC TEMPS AROUND 90             
AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 60S AGAIN YIELDING SBCAPES IN 1800-2300 J/KG               
RANGE AND LITTLE/NO CIN INDICATED BY FCST SOUNDINGS AFTER 18Z OR SO.            
INITIALLY...LARGER SCALE FORCING APPEARS MARGINAL WITH WEAK SHORT               
WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS IL DURING THE MORNING...THOUGH A COUPLE OF            
OTHER WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS APPROACHING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.               
OTHER CONCERN IS LINEAR MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN/IA THIS                  
MORNING. BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAINS TO OUR WEST OVER IA THROUGH             
THE DAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TSTMS CONTINUE TO                
PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST TOWARD NRN IL AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES. MESO-ETA             
(NAM) AND UCAR 4KM WRF BOTH BRING THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST ACROSS                
FCST AREA THIS AFTN...THOUGH BOTH APPEAR A LITTLE SLOWER THAN                   
CURRENT 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS. CONSIDERING EXPECTED                                 
INSTABILITY...NAM/WRF SIGNALS AND POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FOCUS              
FROM BOTH ADVANCING MCS AND AFOREMENTIONED NE IL REMNANT...WILL                 
INDICATE VCTS IN TERMINALS THIS AFTN...AS EARLY AS 17Z AT KRFD BASED            
ON MN MCS...AND AFTER 20Z CHI AREA TERMS FOR PEAK DIURNAL HEATING               
HOURS. DAY SHIFT CAN FINE TUNE TIMING AND UPGRADE TO TEMPO OR                   
PREVAILING IF NEEDED. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH/MOVE                   
SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS LLJ REFOCUSES NOCTURNAL                 
ACTIVITY BACK INTO THE PLAINS TO OUR WEST. LIGHT WIND                           
FIELD...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET GROUND FROM            
ANY AFTN TSTMS SUGGESTS MORE OF A HZ POSSIBILITY TNGT AND HAVE                  
HINTED AT.                                                                      
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
CONVECTION FIRED UP OVER NW IN AND LOWER MI DURING THE OVERNIGHT                
HOURS MOVING E. EARLIER MCS OVER NRN WIS HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST            
PART EXCEPT FOR SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVE STORMS WEST CENTRAL WIS.                
HOWEVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEEN IN MKX RADAR AND SFC OBS...DROPPING               
SOUTH TOWARD NRN IL. LATEST RUC TRIES TO WASH THIS OUT RATHER                   
QUICKLY AND SLY FLOW TAKES OVER AGAIN. FEW STORMS TRYING TO FORM                
ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY BUT SEEM TO BE DYING AS QUICKLY AS THEY             
FORM. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH THE MORNING.                               
AMS SHOULD HEAT UP INTO LOWER 90S AGAIN TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN            
MID 60S. THIS WILL BE SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TUES WITH GOOD                        
INSTABILITY...WEAK SHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM. EXPECT             
DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS AGAIN JUST ABOUT                  
ANYWHERE. SSW LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LAKE BREEZE TO THE NORTH             
SHORE AREA OF IL SIMILAR TO TUES...ALTHOUGH WIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY            
ENHANCE THE LAKE BREEZE SOMEWHAT. THE LAKE BREEZE/REMNANTS OF WIS               
OUTFLOW COULD BE FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. TRAILING VORT LOBE            
ASSOCIATED WITH NEB SQUALL LINE COULD MOVE ACROSS IL THIS AFTERNOON             
AND EVE TO ENHANCE TSTM CHANCES AS WELL. EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO                
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER DARK AS ACTION REFOCUSES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS.            
THEN A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY                    
BOUNDARY FROM PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY. GFS                   
APPEARS TO BE THROWING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTO THE MIX THIS                 
WEEKEND...MOVING IT FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO THE LOW MS VLY             
AND TN VLY. WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MON. PATTERN SHIFT             
MON NIGHT/TUES STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH DRYING FOR MID                 
WEEK.                                                                           
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISSUED A QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO THE ZFP TO DROP MAX TEMPS JUST A               
BIT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE INCOMING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD                 
COVER MAY CAP TEMPS OFF IN THE UPPER 80S... PIA MAY JUST SQUEAK                 
ABOVE THE 90 MARK IN TIME THOUGH.                                               
EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO HELPING TO KICK OFF A FEW                  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EAST THIS MORNING                
WHERE... LIKE YESTERDAY... THERE'S A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE.  RUC H85              
ANALYSIS SHOWS THETA-E RIDGING IN TWO AREAS... OVER THE FAR EASTERN             
CWA INTO INDIANA WHERE EXITING S/W TROF HAS AIDED IN TSTM                       
DEVELOPMENT... THE SECOND AREA OVER EASTERN IOWA AND FAR WESTERN                
ILLINOIS WITH PERHAPS SOME SFC MOISTURE POOLING OCCURRING IN THE                
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.                                                             
WHILE THE CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR LOOKS PROMISING WITH MCS OVER                  
EASTERN IA APPEARING TO BE STRENGTHENING A BIT WITH TIME... 850                 
DEWPOINT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT "DRY POCKET" OVER ILLINOIS...             
WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER IOWA.                                     
WILL KEEP THE 40 POPS IN FOR THE UPDATE... THOUGHT IS THAT THE MCS              
OVER IOWA MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR TO THE EAST             
AND MAY INDEED TRY TO PROPAGATE OR REDEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO THE MORE            
UNSTABLE AIR OVER MISSOURI.  THINK THE 40 POPS WILL BE                          
REPRESENTATIVE OF A MORE SCATTERED NATURE TO ANY PRECIP THAT MOVES              
IN OR DEVELOPS TODAY.  IN SPITE OF THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR... WE WILL             
STILL BE MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE SO CONVECTION IS                     
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE SW...WITH ONLY             
THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE LAST FEW SCANS.  MAJORITY OF            
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NE AND NW.  MCS IN THE NW SEEMS TO HAVE            
ADDED A MORE SERLY COMPONENT IN THE LAST HOUR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE               
STILL IN THE REGION WITH DPTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN CWA...WITH               
LOW 70S NOT FAR TO THE S. CIRRUS OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING               
KEPT THE TEMPS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S. PROFILER              
DATA SHOWING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE REGION...AND THE BACK               
END OF CLOUDS REMAINING LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.             
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE WHEN AND WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL                 
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE CURRENT SHOWERS IN THE SRN HALF OF              
CWA WILL END...AND OFF AND ON PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH DAY 7.                     
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...                                  
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS SRLY FLOW BRINGS UP PLENTY OF              
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...H85 TEMPS STILL READING +18C. NEW TWIST               
TODAY IS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST                  
SOUNDINGS. 4000+ J/KG CAPE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH             
NO CAP IN PLACE.  MCS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING EWD AT A GOOD                 
CLIP. 4KM NESTED WRF SHOWING THE PROPAGATION OF A LINE OF THUNDER SW            
OF THE CURRENT TAIL IN NERN NEBRASKA...MOVING TO THE NWRN PORTION OF            
IL BY THE AFTERNOON.  IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES             
TO THE WNW WOULD BE THE TRIGGER FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM                     
DEVELOPMENT.  SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK PAINTED ACROSS NW HALF OF                     
CWA...SUSPECT THAT COULD GROW TO COVER ENTIRE CWA LATER IN THE                  
MORNING...DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE 12Z FLIGHTS.  KEPT 40 POPS            
IN THROUGH TONIGHT. TOMORROW...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS...BUT WITH             
SLIGHTLY LESSER CAPE.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW/IF TURNING OVER THE                 
ATMOSPHERE AFFECTS THE FORECAST.  STILL THINK THAT THE SYNOPTIC                 
SCALE FRONTS WILL REMAIN TO THE N AND W OF THE CWA...STALLED OUT IN             
SWRLY FLOW.                                                                     
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...                                           
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES STAY TO THE N AND W THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH              
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS THE RULE.  KEEPING THE SWRLY              
FLOW GOING ALOFT...AND A H5 RIDGE DOMINATING THE SERN CONUS.                    
SHORTWAVES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS            
WILL BE ESSENTIAL FOR DEVIATING FROM A RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN.  KEEP            
THE 30 POPS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN DRY OUT THE REST OF THE WEEKEND             
AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT            
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POSSIBILITY...AND WILL WATCH             
FOR TRIGGERS. MODELS STILL BRINGING UP TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE OHIO            
RIVER VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WILL ALSO             
WATCH THE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER              
OUR REGION.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
HARDIMAN/HJS                                                                    
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
630 AM EST WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
SATELLITE AND KIWX RADAR DATA HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE               
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  ISOLATED                  
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE SW OF THE FCST AREA ACRS E CNTRL                
ILLINOIS.  THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST UNSTABLE PATTERN                
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WEAK S/WVS PASSING THROUGH.  IN THE                 
SHORT TERM...THE CONVECTION OVER E CNTRL ILLINOIS WAS BEING CAUSED              
BY A WEAK S/WV.  RUC40 AND NAM PIVOT THIS FEATURE INTO INDIANA BY               
21Z.  THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN             
A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER NRN INDIANA.  WITH THE LACK OF A                  
DISCERNIBLE LOW LVL FOCUSING MECHANISM AND WITH WEAK WIND FLOW                  
ALOFT...AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY...WITH               
SLOW MOVEMENT...AND WIDELY SCATTERED IN AREAL COVERAGE                          
(DISORGANIZED). THUS...WILL ONLY INDICATE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THE            
TAFS WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR ATTM.  THE BETTER CHC FOR                           
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY COME WITH A S/WV AND POSSIBLE OUTFLOW                 
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS MN...WRN                       
WISCONSIN...AND NORTHERN IOWA.  THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO                   
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTN (21Z).  THUS...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS            
WILL LIKELY REFIRE THERE...SAGGING ESE INTO THE WRN CWFA BY                     
EVENING.  SINCE THIS IS BEYOND THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME...CONFIDENCE              
IS STILL LOW AT THIS POINT AS TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE                        
CONVECTION...AND THUS DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR AND                  
SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CB DESCRIPTOR IN THE TAFS              
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS (00Z-03Z) TO INDICATE                        
THUNDERSTORM THREAT.  THEREAFTER...CONVECTION SHOULD DWINDLE                    
OVERNIGHT WITH CONVECTION REFIRING AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS A WARM                  
...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACRS THE REGION.                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
KIWX RADAR THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING THE FAR NRN CWFA.  THESE SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN RESPONSE TO SFC TO 925 MB TROF AXIS FROM SRN              
MICHIGAN INTO LAKE MICHIGAN...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK UPR LVL SHEAR             
VORTICITY.  THE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOCD WITH THE TROF AXIS IS                
FCST TO DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING...AND THUS THE CONVECTION SHOULD DO             
ALSO.  HOWEVER...SINCE ZONES HAVE TO BE ISSUED ATTM...WILL HAVE TO              
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 30 POP ACRS SRN MICHIGAN AND FAR NRN INDIANA FOR            
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SUMMER LIKE WEATHER WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH A WARM...HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.  NAM DEPICTS A WEAK              
H5 TROF ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN                  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTN AND               
EVENING.  SBCAPES ARE FCST TO BE OVER 3000 J/KG BY LATE THIS AFTN.              
THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH THE WEAK FEATURE ALOFT...SHOULD BE             
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE            
SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING/FOCUSING                     
MECHANISMS.                                                                     
FOR TONIGHT...THE FCST CONCERN WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE OUTFLOW              
BOUNDARY FROM ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS MN...SD...AND NW IOWA.  THE               
NAM TRIES TO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE...BRINGING IT INTO                         
WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTN HOURS.  THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                
...AND ITS ASSOCD WEAK S/WV ALOFT...SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND                    
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS IN THE AFTN...WHICH            
SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE WRN CWFA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.               
AS A RESULT...HAVE RAISED POPS IN THE WEST TO 40 PERCENT...WHILE                
MAINTAINING A 30 POP ELSEWHERE.                                                 
AS FOR TEMPS...MAV/MET GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...SO NOT MUCH                  
WIGGLE ROOM AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR             
90 TODAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT.                     
LONG TERM...                                                                    
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.                                                       
THE EARLY SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM             
RANGE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AROUND THE            
BACK SIDE OF THE WELL ESTABLISHED QUASI-STATIONARY BERMUDA HIGH. FOR            
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE VERY               
SIMILAR EACH DAY WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN               
UNITED STATES WITH HIGH HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL AND                 
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EJECT NUMEROUS             
PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHICH               
WILL FUEL DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND ORGANIZED MCS ACTIVITY                 
WHILE MUCH LESS ORGANIZED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AFFECTS THE OHIO                
VALLEY.                                                                         
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS              
NOT AS CLEAR CUT WITH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT THERE WILL BE A LACK             
OF ANY ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE                   
UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND ORGANIZATION WILL BE                
MODULATED BY MESOSCALE EFFECTS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS WELL AS              
ANY LOCAL EFFECTS OR BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP...AND THESE EFFECTS                
CANNOT BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINTING             
THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH            
WITH TIME LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC               
BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH. THIS FRONT                
HAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A CONDUIT FOR CONVECTION WITH                 
NUMEROUS MCS MOVING EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS FRONT BEGINS             
TO PRESS SOUTH THE CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. MODELS ALSO             
INCREASE PWAT VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE               
GFS ALSO THROUGH AN INTERESTING CAVEAT INTO THE MIX AS THE 18Z/07               
AND 00Z/08 RUNS BRING THE REMNANTS OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM               
NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION HAS A LOW                   
PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING                   
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT...BUT WILL BEAR                    
WATCHING NONETHELESS.                                                           
THERE IS NO APPARENT STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER            
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY WEAK WIND FIELDS AND A WARM                   
COLUMN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE DAYS            
HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.             
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH            
DAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BUT THE BULK OF ALL OF THESE DAYS IS              
LIKELY TO BE RAIN FREE WITH ONLY PERIODIC ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND                 
STORMS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE                                                                      
.MI...NONE                                                                      
.OH...NONE                                                                      
.LK MI...NONE                                                                   
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS                                              
310 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAIN              
CONCERNS.                                                                       
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE                 
WATER VALUES AND THETA E RIDGE ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT OUR AREA. LOW              
LVL INFLOW NOT ALL THAT HIGH...AND NAM SEEMS UNREASONABLY HIGH WITH             
QPF. HOWEVER BACKBUILDING CONVECTION INTO THE AREA WITH STRONGER                
STORMS SEEMS LIKELY...AND WITH EXPECTED RAINS NEAR OR EXCEEDING                 
INDEX VALUES...A FLOOD WATCH SEEMS PRUDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAY               
HAVE ACTUALLY TWO EPISODES OF CONVECTION...FIRST WITH BACKBUILDING              
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...THEN, DEPENDING ON OUTFLOWS              
FROM THIS CONVECTION...MORE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL                 
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. RUC SHOWS SRN END OF NORTHEAST EJECTING WAVE              
PASSING NEAR AREA LATE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD                   
ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER, FURTHER NORTH IN CWA, AS              
LOW LVL FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE. LOWS TONIGHT LITTLE                
CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE...AND WINDS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES              
ANYONE'S GUESS...BUT TRIED TO TREND TOWARD A SOUTHEAST FLOW ALL                 
AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.                                                          
LONGER TERM...LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FEATURES                 
LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND RIDGE ALONG THE EAST             
COAST.  OF COURSE THIS MEANS SEASONALLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS                 
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY WITH STALLED OUT SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND              
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY.  GIVEN THIS...EXPECT              
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE                    
PERIOD...AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  TIMING OF OF            
MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVES COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST TROUGH IS                        
DIFFICULT...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY SHOWN BY            
GFS...HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HAVE A DECENT                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER SHEAR MOVING THROUGH AND ASSOCIATED               
HIGHER THREAT FOR SIG SEVERE.                                                   
NOT SURPRISINGLY...LONG RANGE MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS LONGWAVE            
PATTERN IN DIFFERENT WAYS...BUT ALL WOULD INDICATE THAT BY THE                  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL SETUP AND CHANCES FOR            
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A             
LINE FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING                 
UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY.                                                            
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SK/GP                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
1018 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE THIS MORNING TO LOWER MAX TEMPS IN THE               
HILL CITY/NORTON AREAS. ETA INITIALIZED VERY WELL ON 850                        
TEMPS...WHICH WERE RUNNING IN THE 14 TO 15 CELSIUS RANGE. WITH                  
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL HAVE SOME                  
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND ETA SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOWER              
80S FOR HIGHS IN THE EAST. ELSEWHERE...SOUNDINGS LOOK A FEW DEGREES             
COOLER THAN BEFORE...BUT THE AIR IS SO DRY IT MAY HEAT UP                       
EASILY...SO DID NOT ADJUST ANYWHERE ELSE.                                       
WINDS WERE INITIALLY GUSTY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND             
THE GRIDS HANDLED THIS WELL.  STILL EXPECT A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS            
AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS AROUND TO EASTERLY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS             
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. SHOULD HAVE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS RETURN TO              
EASTERN COLORADO BY EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.                          
ALSO ADJUSTED DEWPOINT FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS             
OF DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S ALONG THE            
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. THE RUC IS OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF                      
DRYING...BUT AT LEAST HAS THE RIGHT TREND. ETA/GFS DEWPOINTS WERE               
ENTIRELY TOO HIGH BY ABOUT 15 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.                       
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
800 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER SOUTHEAST                  
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS TRYING TO              
DEVELOP FROM EASTERN UPPER ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER.  MAIN QUESTIONS              
FOR REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT CENTERING AROUND               
RE-DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  QUASI-STATIONARY                   
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...FROM JUST SOUTH OF TVC                  
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.  RUC AND 18Z NAM SHOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF JUICY              
H8-H7 THETA-E AIR WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AROUND               
06Z IN ADVANCE OF TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI                    
VALLEY.  AIR ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS PRIMED FOR                
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SURFACED BASED CAPES STILL OVER 1500 J/KG FROM             
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE FROM TVC-CAD-HTL.  CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES                
HAVE NO PCPN FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING...WITH HIGHER POPS ENTERING               
TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  I WILL ADD LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH             
10 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND THEN LEAVE MORE                     
WIDESPREAD HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS NEXT SURGE             
OF HIGH THETA-E AIR SURGES TOWARD WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.  I WILL             
ALSO ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVER LAKE HURON AND               
WHITEFISH BAY.  RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW SOME PATCHY LAKE FOG                
DEVELOPING BETWEEN ALPENA AND OSCODA.                                           
UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES OUT SHORTLY.                                                
JK                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                          
DISCUSSION...THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM COLD             
FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE IN            
THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH            
H8-H7 LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 C/KM...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ROAMING               
AROUND...AND WEAKENING H8 LLJ (TO 20KTS BY 12Z)...WILL BE ENOUGH TO             
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. A PERIOD            
OF SUBSIDENCE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN            
OF SOME SUN TO HELP THINGS HEAT UP DIURNALLY AGAIN. WITH THE AXIS OF            
HIGHEST THETA-E AIR MOVING IN OVER NORTHERN LOWER AND MID LEVEL                 
LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO 6.5 C/KM AND WEAK SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL                  
BOUNDARY SLIPPING INTO THE SAME AREA...WILL HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS              
AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD            
OF LAKE BREEZES WILL ALSO SET UP PROVIDING ANOTHER SOURCE OF                    
CONVERGENCE TO HELP FOCUS INITIATION. AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN WILL NOT HAVE AS GOOD A CHANCE...AS WELL AS EASTERN UPPER              
WHERE DRIER AIR AND A SLIGHT CAP DEVELOPS ALOFT TRIES TO SETTLE IN.             
NEVERTHELESS...CAN SEE LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING WITH REMNANT LOW                 
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SHOWERS. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST                 
1600J/KG ACROSS NRN LOWER EAST OF I-75 WITH AROUND 1000J/KG IN                  
EASTERN UPPER (EVEN THE MODIFICATION SEEMS OVERDONE). 0-6KM BULK                
SHEAR IS WEAK WITH 20-25KTS...SO ANY STORMS LOOK TO BE PULSE TYPE               
AGAIN.                                                                          
THURSDAY NIGHT...AM LOOKING FOR AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO              
LAY OUT ACROSS NRN LOWER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE EVENING.              
ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RETURNS NORTHWARD                  
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OVER THE            
ROCKIES SWINGS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE FRONTAL ZONE            
LIFTS NORTHWARD...ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND                        
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. WILL BE KEEPING FOG MENTION OUT            
OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS             
LONGEST FETCH TO ALLOW FOR FOG.                                                 
FRIDAY ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE               
CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE IN OVER NRN                    
MICHIGAN IN THE BETTER SW FLOW ALOFT. WITH THE RETURN OF HIGH                   
THETA-E AIR (330K) OVER MUCH..IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA...CHANCES FOR              
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK             
TO BREAK DOWN INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO CANNOT END PRECIP                  
CHANCES. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH THIS TIME AND              
IS REALLY LOOKING LIKE SUMMER.                                                  
AN ACTIVE PATTERN...BUT NO HEADLINES FORESEEN ATTM.   SMD                       
SMD                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND                 
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.                                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A COUPLET OF LOWS EMBEDDED              
IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS            
NORTHWEST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.               
A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS             
RACING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND WESTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE                   
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW OVER NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD                
FRONT DRAPED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA. A               
WARM FRONT ALSO STRETCHES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND RUNS THROUGH                 
WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING OVER SOUTH AND EAST OF FRONTS IN A WATCH               
BOX OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS.                               
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SWING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA                 
TONIGHT AS THEY TRY TO NAVIGATE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RIDGE.            
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT            
INTO THE CENTRAL U.P. BY SUNRISE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE             
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE UPPER                
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAIN INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.             
AS IT DOES...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST              
AREA. TOGETHER THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS               
THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE.                           
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER            
LEVEL JET MAX WILL SHIFT OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO PLACING NORTHERN                  
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.            
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE US A            
BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL             
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO            
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAWING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL              
ONTARIO BECOMING MORE EAST WEST ORIENTED. THESE WILL INCREASE THE               
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.                                            
AGAIN A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER             
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY            
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHERN UPPER                   
MICHIGAN. MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE A FEW                  
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. K INDEX WILL BE IN THE 30S...SO EXPECT POSSIBLY              
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL                  
REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. GFS/ETA                  
SHOWING TWO JET MAXES OVER THE REGION. ONE JUST SOUTH OF THE                    
FORECAST AREA AND THE OTHER OVER ONTARIO. FORECAST AREA IS BETWEEN              
THESE SUGGESTING SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH             
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING.                          
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT             
AS IT WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE             
ROCKIES LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG. THE UPPER JET MAX WILL            
PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND WEAKEN AS ANOTHER JET MAX DEVELOPS                 
OVER EASTERNS DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL              
CLIMB OUT OF EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA DRAGGING THE               
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. A WARM               
FRONT LEADING THIS LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND            
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN                
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SOME                
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP             
A CLOSED LOW OVER WYOMING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE EJECTED OUT                 
AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO WISCONSIN...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS                
ACROSS THE AREA. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE                 
AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND              
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WYOMING CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL DAKOTAS            
AS THE WISCONSIN SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE U.P. SUNDAY NIGHT.                
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO               
THE CENTRAL U.P. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL                     
CONTINUE. THE MID LEVEL CLOSE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA ON                
MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DRAGGING A              
COLD FRONT THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE               
DRAWN INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TOGETHER THESE SHOULD                   
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL             
LOW WILL TREK INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. GFS IS MOVING THE SURFACE LOW             
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER                
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE IS FAVORING THE SLOWER                   
SOLUTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES BEING EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THIS CLOSED LOW            
WILL BE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN              
HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT.               
THE CLOSED LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY AS THE              
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN U.P. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL             
CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND                      
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL GOING.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1155 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ARE SHRA/TSRA               
COVERAGE/STRENGTH.                                                              
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A TROF OVER THE NW CONUS WITH             
A FLAT DOWNSTREAM RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOSED H5 LOW/VORT WAS              
LOCATED OVER WRN ND WHILE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHRTWV FROM DAKOTAS              
MCS LAST NIGHT...WAS LIFTING NE THROUGH NRN MN. ONGOING MCS AND                 
REMNANTS FROM THE SYSTEM HAS LEFT A CONVOLUTED SURFACE PATTERN OVER             
THE REGION. SFC LOW PRES REMAINED OVER ND BUT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW                
BOUNDARIES AND ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR OVER THE NW              
WI LEAVES A LESS CLEAR PICTURE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...A WARM FRONTAL             
BOUNDARY STILL IS APPARENT VCNTY OF KGRB WITH 15Z TEMPS TO NEAR 80F             
AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER E CNTRL WI. RADAR INDICATED               
DIMINISHING -SHRA OVER W UPR MI AND A SMALL AREA OF SHRA OVER S                 
CNTRL UPR MI SUPPORTED BY 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE                
FRONT. OTHERWISE...VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER              
OVER UPR MI AND UPSTREAM THROUGH NRN WI.                                        
POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT HINGES ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING              
AND RESULTING DESTABILIZATION. MODIFIED COMBINATION OF OBSERVED AND             
12Z RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT IF WARMING OCCURS WITH                     
TEMP/DEWPOINT TO 79/65 (MOST LIKELY OVER THE SW NEAR THE WI BORDER)             
CAPE VALUES WOULD CLIMB TO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN THOUGH                
SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA ARE RELATIVELY THIN...EXPECT THAT              
CLEARING/HEATING WILL OCCUR TOO LATE TO BRING ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION            
THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE            
MID 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SW IF ONLY MODERATE AMOUNT OF            
HEATING OCCURS WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME AMOUNT OF SFC BASED               
CINH DEPICTED ON THE SNDGS. WHILE 900-800 SW FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS                
EXPECTED...WITH MN SHRTWV ENERGY MOVING NE ANY FORCING MECHANISM FOR            
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. SO...ONLY CHANCE                   
SHRA/TSRA MENTIONED OVER THE CWA...SW OF KP59-KISQ. FCST IS IN LINE             
WITH SHIFT OF SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE SOUTH OF UPR MI.                      
HOWEVER...IF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS LOW LEVEL AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES            
WOULD STILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SVR STORM WITH LARGE HAIL            
OR DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN THREATS.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLB                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1012 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
REMNANTS OF MRNG DAMAGING MCS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE W CNTRL WI                     
COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH THE RAIN SHUD BE E OF THE FA BY NOON AT THE                 
LATEST. ATMOSPHERE OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL MN AND W CNTRL WI IS              
FAIRLY WORKED OVER IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. WITH DENSE CLOUD                 
COVER AND TEMPS/DEW POINTS WELL BELOW THE READINGS AT THIS TIME                 
YDAY...CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO            
BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA DESPITE THE PRESENCE             
OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW IN N DAKOTA.             
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE 12Z RUC AND THE 12Z WORKSTATION NAM              
ARE CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THRU THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS             
PRIMARILY W CNTRL WI. POTENTIAL TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH WAA AHEAD OF               
APPROACHING SFC TROF...AS WELL AS VORT MAX FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVER              
CNTRL MN THIS AFTN AND PUSH EWRD. RETOOLED THE POP/WX CONFIGURATIONS            
THRU TONIGHT TO CAPTURE THIS THINKING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BEING             
MID EVENING OVER W CNTRL WI.                                                    
OTHER PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FCST WERE TO DECREASE MAX TEMPS FOR                
TODAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING FROM MSP TO            
LXL...WITH THE RAIN THAT FELL OVERNIGHT AND THE LOWER STARTING TEMPS            
/COMPARED WITH YDAY/...HEATING SHUD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED. CURRENT              
TEMPS ARE 3 TO 4 DEGS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST IN MOST AREAS.                 
KAT                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005)                           
BOW MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF TWIN CITIES               
BY FORECAST ISSUANCE AND THEN THROUGH WI BY LATER MORNING. WILL                 
LIKELY LET FLOOD WATCH END AT 7 AM. TROUGH/OCCLUSION WILL BE MOVING             
INTO EASTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO            
40 KNOT RANGE AND STRONG THETA E ADVECTION WILL BE SETTING UP AGAIN             
AHEAD OF TROUGH. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF SEVERE             
IN EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT MOVING            
FRONT AND FORCING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE              
REMOVED POPS BUT WILL ONLY BE FOR A SHORT TIME. LONG WAVE TROUGH                
WILL ALLOW FRONT AND THETA E ADVECTION TO WAVE BACK NORTH AGAIN                 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MN...NONE.                                                                     
.WI...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE                                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS                                             
1011 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOTHER UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FORTHCOMING.                                     
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY WILL HANG ON            
A BIT LONGER OVER THE COLUMBUS AREA...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE               
AROUND MIDNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...SQUALL LINE STILL HOLDING ON AND                  
MOVING SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO/ARK/TN BORDERS. RUC40 PICKS              
THIS FEATURE UP WELL AND MAINTAINS THE LINE IN THE RELATIVELY                   
PRISTINE ATMOSPHERE OVER NE ARK AND WEST TN...HOWEVER IT LOSES THE              
LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN MS. THE LATEST LAPS DATA SHOWS                
THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER MS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER PRETTY WELL...LIS              
AROUND -2 AND SFC BASED CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG. ASSUMING THIS LINE                
DOES HOLD TOGETHER...SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS HAVE THIS LINE                  
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY CWFA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM. AT              
THIS POINT...AM MORE INCLINED TO THINK THAT THIS LINE WILL FALL                 
APART AND PLAY A ROLE IN TOMORROW'S CONVECTIVE BUFFET. NO CHANGES               
WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.                                    
WILL ALTER LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. TEMPS THIS HOUR ARE                   
APPROACHING LOWS IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WILL            
DROP LOWS TO AROUND 70 EVERYWHERE.                                              
FINALLY...HAVE INCLUDED THE LATEST TPC WIND FORECASTS TO THE GRIDS.             
FOR YOUR VIEWING PLEASURE...REFERENCE THE LATEST SUITE OF TPC                   
PRODUCTS AND THE PFM FOR THE WIND PARTICULARS.                                  
UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.                                          
&&                                                                              
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MS...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
AR...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
GAGAN                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ms                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
1055 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
...SEVERE WEATHER DISCUSSION...                                                 
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SURGED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY                
EVENING BUT HAD WEAKENED SINCE 03Z AS IT APPROACHED FAR SOUTHWEST               
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE             
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT TRANSLATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI HAD                  
SHIFTED WEST AND STRETCHED FROM NEAR NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD TO                 
GAINESVILLE...BUT HAD BECOME LESS DISCERNIBLE. THE NOSE OF THE LOW              
LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MOST THE                 
INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING.                                               
THE EVOLUTION AND SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT                  
OVERNIGHT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. THE LATEST RUC MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS             
THE AXIS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE PLAINS. WILL                   
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT WOULD PROVIDE                  
SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES IF IT              
VEERS INTO THE AREA.                                                            
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR                   
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IN AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY...AND ALONG ANY             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.                                                             
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED BY                         
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT BUT TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE. I HAVE                   
INCLUDED A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OUTFLOW               
FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR            
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...VFR              
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.                                                        
FOSTER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH VERNON...BARTON...CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR.                  
.KS...BOURBON AND CRAWFORD.                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
850 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVERNIGHT.  OUTFLOW FROM TODAY'S            
COMPLEX HAS PUSHED SOUTHWEST OF CNTRL MO THIS EVENING AND TSRA HAS              
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  HOWEVER.. LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS            
OVER WRN MO CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO                  
OVERNIGHT.  RUNS OF THE RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT THETA-E                     
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE 900-800MB LAYER NORTH OF              
THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT OVER CNTRL MO...SO HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO             
KEEP THE WATCH FOR NOW.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FALSH FLOOD WATCH FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...                 
     GASCONADE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...OSAGE...                      
     AND RALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.                            
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO                                            
430 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WENT AHEAD ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MY CENTRAL MISSOURI                   
COUNTIES.  OUTFLOW ON BACK SIDE OF MCS HAS SLOWED OVER CENTRAL                  
MISSOURI.  GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE...STORMS               
SHOULD BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS               
AREA.  RUC DOES SHOW A BROAD 800-900MB FLOW INTERSECTING THIS                   
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E            
ADVECTION OVER THE WATCH AREA AT 03Z...HENCE THE NEED FOR THE FFA.              
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS WITH EXTENT OF TSRA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.              
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL                 
WHERE OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION WILL FOCUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT            
TONIGHT.  GFS IS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK                    
PROBLEMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PUT LESS FAITH IN IT.  HAVE                    
FOLLOWED THE 18Z NAM MORE CLOSELY AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER                  
HANDLE ON ONGOING TSRA THAN THE 12Z RUN.                                        
TONIGHT...EXPECT ACTIVE TSRA TO GO ON WELL INTO THE EVENING AS                  
OUTFLOW PUSHES INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR OVER AREA.  HAVE ADDED MENTION            
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL MO AS LOW LEVEL JUST SETS BACK             
UP TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY OVER THE OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS.  HAVE            
CONTINUED CHC OF TSRA INTO THE WEEKEND AS AREA WILL REMAIN IN                   
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AREA.            
USED OF BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THINK THAT            
BETWEEN CLOUDS AND TSRA TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE                  
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD NGM MOS.                                                     
EXTENDED IS JUST AS COMPLICATED WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING                
DISPARITY IN JUST HOW QUICK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.                  
SHOWED AS SLOWER MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA AND DID NOT GO TOO HIGH ON            
POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MO...FALSH FLOOD WATCH FOR AUDRAIN...BOONE...CALLAWAY...COLE...                 
     GASCONADE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MONITEAU...OSAGE...                      
     AND RALLS COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY MORNING.                            
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BRITT                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO                                         
253 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS HINGE AROUND EVOLVING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER            
THREAT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER                
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RICH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT              
INTO THE OZARKS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN             
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SURFACE TEMPS            
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN EXTREMELY                 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PROXIMITY RUC/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING               
MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 5000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD CU FIELD OVER THE AREA            
SHOWING LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...AWAITING FROM SEVERAL LIFTING             
MECHANISMS THAT LIE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.                                      
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS A SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT AND LEADING              
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW ALONE THE NE KS/SE               
NEBRASKA BORDER. A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS                
EAST OF THIS LOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN MCS OVER NRN MISSOURI.            
SLOW EASTWARD/SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE              
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH RAPID INITIATION               
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO FROM THE TRIPLE POINT SOUTHEAST              
INTO CENTRAL MO. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL...LARGE             
CONTRIBUTION TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WILL               
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. SIMILAR TO                   
YESTERDAY...PRECIPITATION LOADING ABOVE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY LEAD             
TO A FEW SIGNIFICANT LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS               
MINIMAL...HOWEVER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS              
EVENING MAY PROVIDE AN ENHANCED THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.             
MCS SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS                   
EVENING. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS             
HAS NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST                   
CENTRAL MO AND SE KS WHERE SEVERAL RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE            
AFFECTED THE AREA.                                                              
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE               
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO                
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IF THIS FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD PER SEVERAL            
OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...THEN MUGGY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL                   
PREVAIL.                                                                        
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF COULD THROW A WRENCH             
INTO MATTERS TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE ON THE NW              
FLANK OF ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENHANCE THE GOING DRY FORECAST INTO              
NEXT WEEK.                                                                      
BOOKBINDER                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG AN             
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS                
AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR BROKEN CEILINGS OF 2500 TO 4000 FEET THIS                  
AFTERNOON AS CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS TO EXPAND.  VISIBILITIES MAY DROP             
WITHIN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO A MILE OR LESS WITHIN THE TORRENTIAL             
RAIN HOWEVER OVERALL VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES.                  
LINDENBERG                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH BARTON...CEDAR AND ST. CLAIR.                           
.KS...BOURBON AND CRAWFORD.                                                     
$$                                                                              
WFO SGF                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
1145 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WILL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA.                 
RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA                   
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.                         
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL LOWER POPS              
TO REFLECT THIS. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.           
EMANUEL                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 545 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                             
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.               
ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST                
NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW            
AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD             
MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE               
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT             
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING.              
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE            
DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS               
REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF               
BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN                    
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN              
THIS REGION.                                                                    
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE               
AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP              
ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER               
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS             
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED.                    
THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR                   
GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER             
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE.                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF              
THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND            
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE             
IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER               
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO                 
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE               
BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER              
SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP            
A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE              
TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW            
SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ                                                             
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN                  
MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA             
MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE                       
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG              
THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE               
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW            
WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL                
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED AT 1745Z                                                                
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER MT WITH MAIN                
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ND AND SURFACE TROF EXTENDING WEST ACROSS              
THE STATE. WILL CONTINUE TO GENERALLY SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH                
THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AS                 
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS            
SW AND CENTRAL MT WITH AN ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE AT KBZN AND KLWT. THE            
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ENERGY                
CONSOLIDATING OVER CENTRAL MT FOR INCREASING PRECIP COVERAGE OVER               
NORTHCENTRAL MT AFTER 06Z.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  62  41  62  43 /  20  30  30  20                                           
CTB  60  39  59  41 /  20  30  30  20                                           
HLN  62  43  63  45 /  30  40  50  20                                           
BZN  60  36  62  38 /  40  30  30  20                                           
WEY  47  30  56  33 /  60  40  30  20                                           
DLN  54  35  59  37 /  80  40  40  20                                           
HVR  64  44  64  46 /  40  30  30  20                                           
LWT  60  39  60  41 /  30  40  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRUSDA                                                             
LONG TERM....MPJ/EK                                                             
AVIATION...HOENISCH                                                             
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT                                         
545 AM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ANOTHER COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.               
ONE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA LAST                
NIGHT AND IT DID NOT GET PULLED OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MCS NOW            
AFFECTING MN AND WI. THIS SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF A SLOW WESTWARD             
MOVEMENT BUT BY 6 AM IT IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING SLOWLY TO THE               
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE ANY PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY AFFECT             
THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTY THIS MORNING.              
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFFECTING THE            
DILLON AREA. THE RUC MODEL LINGERS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THIS               
REGION MOST OF THE DAY. THEREFORE WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR MUCH OF               
BEAVERHEAD AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MADISON AND GALLATIN                    
COUNTIES FOR TODAY. SNOW IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ABOVE 6000 FEET IN              
THIS REGION.                                                                    
OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE               
AREA THIS MORNING...DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP              
ON TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH OVER               
THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS THE AIRMASS             
BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE BUT ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED.                    
THEREFORE I HAVE ALSO ALLOWED THE FLOOD WARNING TO EXPIRE FOR                   
GLACIER COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL...ABOUT 10 DEGREES                
BELOW NORMAL.                                                                   
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION AS A NEW UPPER             
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF HAVRE.                                          
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SLOW DRYING TREND AS ALL OF              
THESE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEMS FINALLY START TO DRIFT AWAY AND            
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY LATE             
IN THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER               
LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THOUGH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO                 
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BRUSDA                      
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO                   
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY UPPER LEVEL            
TROUGHING DURING THIS PERIOD. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE               
BECOME A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE ECMWF SENDING ENERGY FURTHER              
SOUTH THAN THE GFSLR. DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP            
A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND....WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE              
TO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW            
SEASONAL NORMS. MPJ                                                             
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ONLY MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN                  
MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CWA             
MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE                       
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL             
RIDGE BUILDS IN TUESDAY FOR DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG              
THE DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE               
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW            
WILL HELP KEEP PLAINS DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL                
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY. EK                                                       
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
UPDATED AT 1145Z                                                                
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED               
MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.                
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY VFR OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND             
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH                 
LOCAL MVFR AFTER 18Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS            
DEVELOP. IN FAR SOUTHWEST MONTANA NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER...WIDESPREAD            
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN LOW CEILINGS WITH AREAS IFR DUE TO              
LOW VISIBILITIES IN SNOW NEAR MONIDA PASS.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
GTF  62  41  62  43 /  20  30  30  20                                           
CTB  60  39  59  41 /  20  30  30  20                                           
HLN  62  43  63  45 /  30  40  50  20                                           
BZN  60  36  62  38 /  40  30  30  20                                           
WEY  47  30  56  33 /  60  40  30  20                                           
DLN  54  35  59  37 /  80  40  40  20                                           
HVR  64  44  64  46 /  40  30  30  20                                           
LWT  60  39  60  41 /  30  40  30  20                                           
&&                                                                              
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...BRUSDA                                                             
LONG TERM....MPJ/EK                                                             
AVIATION...MPJ                                                                  
WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE                                        
250 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SYNOPSIS...12Z SUBJECTIVE UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD MEAN TROF OVR THE NRN            
ROCKIES WITH A FLAT RIDGE OVR THE SW US. IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL H3 JET             
OF 100 KT VISIBLE FM UT INTO WY. AT H5 CNTRL PLAINS REMAINED UNDER              
SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHRTWV TROFS EMBEDDED WITH IN THE FAST               
FLOW. LAST NIGHTS SIG SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVR THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WITH            
A SHRTWV RIDGE ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS. NEXT UPSTRM SHRTWV WAS OVR                
WY/CO WITH ANOTHER WV DIVING SEWD INTO THE WRN US. A MARITIME                   
AIRMASS CONTD OVR THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITH A +20 DP AT KOKC AT H85.            
H85 CDFNT WAS LOCATED FM ERN NEB SWWD INTO WRN KS. 19Z OBJECTIVE                
MSAS ANLYS INDCD CDFNT ALNG THE MO RIVER INTO NE KS WITH AN OUTFLOW             
BOUNDARY FM MO MCS INTO SE NEB NR KFNB.                                         
FORECAST...VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST THRU MON WITH SEVERAL CHCS OF              
CONVECTION/SVR WX. FOR TONIGHT CDFNT HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY ALNG               
THE MO RIVER AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF AN EWD PUSH THRU THE EVENING.            
LATEST LAPS/RUC ANALYSIS INDCS FAR SE CWA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE              
WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN REMAINING. MAY SEE AN ISO TSRA DEVELOP HERE               
THIS EVNG...BUT SHLD QUICKLY MV INTO KS/MO BY 03Z. VERY LITTLE CHC              
OF CONVECTION FARTHER N ALNG THE CDFNT WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR BEING             
ADVECTED IN FM THE E. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE W WERE UPSLOPE                
FLOW WAS ALREADY GETTING GOING. EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP OVR THE HIGH                
TERRAIN LATE EVNG IN REGION OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 100 KT UT/WY JET              
STREAK AND ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV TROF. SIG MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE             
ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES               
WHICH SHLD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR MCS TO DVLP              
AND MV EWD/EXPAND ACRS NRN NEB. WL START CHC POPS AFTR 09Z FOR WRN              
CWA FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS IT RIDES THE NRN EDGE OF THE LLJ. NAM DROPS            
THIS CONVECTION SEWD INTO ERN NEB ON THURS...BUT THIS MAY BE                    
OVERDONE. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHLD BE INCREASING THRU THE NIGHT                
TONIGHT WITH GOOD SWRLY FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHLD BRING              
+12 AT H7 INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z. THUS IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TSRA WL              
CONT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVR THE NRN CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING BY               
LATE MRNG. CONVECTION SHLD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THOUGH THAT              
WL SETTLE OVR SRN NEB BY AFTN. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT STG ON                 
THURS AFTN...BUT WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO              
NR 70...CONVERGENCE ALNG THE BOUNDARY...AND WK LARGE SCALE ASCENT               
ALOFT...ISO/SCT TSRA WL DVLP ALNG THE BOUNDARY. LATEST SREF                     
INDICATES 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACRS THE BOUNDARY WITH EXTREME               
INSTABILITY. THUS SUPERCELLS WL BE POSSIBLE PER LATEST SWODY2.                  
LOW-LVL SHEAR IS NOT STG OVR CWA...BUT GOOD TURNING IS INDCIATED IN             
POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS. SEEMS LIKE VERY LARGE HAIL/WIND WOULD BE              
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT AN ISO TOR CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE AMOUNT             
OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MCS SHLD EVENTUALLY DVLP                  
TOMORROW EVNG AND ROLL ACRS CNTRL/NRN NEB INTO FRI MRNG AND HAVE                
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY. SFC BOUNDARY CONTS IN THE AREA ON FRI AND             
MODELS PROGG STG SHRTWV TROF TO EMERGE ONTO THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTN.            
STG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WL LIKELY LEAD TO CONVECTION BY              
AFTN ALNG THE BOUNDARY WITH SVR WX AGAIN POSSIBLE. THIS IS LIKELY TO            
CONT THRU FRI NIGHT AS SRN PLAINS CONVECTION LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST             
INTO THE AREA. WL KEEP THE CHC OF TSRA INTO NEXT MON WITH THE SFC               
FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH SUN INTO MON LOOKING LIKE THE NEXT BEST              
CHC OF SIG SVR WX. OTHERWISE TMPS LOOK NR NORMAL WITH A DRY TUE/WED.            
&&                                                                              
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NE...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BOUSTEAD                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ne                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1045 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE MENTION OF                     
FOG...OTHERWISE...FCST IS ON TRACK WITH SCATTERED AFTN TSTMS                    
DEVELOPING MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17. DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS                
THOSE FOLKS THAT DO GET THE STORMS WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL               
AS PW'S ARE AROUND 1.5". NEARLY NON-EXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT                  
WITH HIGH PRES DUE E OF THE CAROLINA COAST SO EXPECT LIGHT WINDS                
WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE FOG AND            
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF. THEREFORE VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE            
OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH SHOULD BE MOST PREVELANT WEST OF                  
HIGHWAY 17 TODAY.                                                               
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS. LAND            
BREEZE COMPONENT ABOUT OVER AND WINDS COMING AROUND TO SE/S AS                  
EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. SOME OF THE GUID (RUC 40 AND NGM) ARE            
INC SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. NOT OUT OF THE              
QUESTION THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PRODUCES A LITTLE GUSTINESS BUT              
WITH WEAK GRAD WOULD PREFER TO STICK WITH THE MME/MMG (NAM/GFS)                 
NUMBERS WHICH ARE MAINLY AROUND 10 KT SUSTAINED. LATEST NAM-12 ALSO             
SUPPORTS THIS. THUS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE EXPECTED TO ONGOING MARINE             
FORECAST.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WS/JME                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
150 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
SCT CONVECTION WILL POP UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY              
PUNCH NOTED ALONG IN/OH BORDER...BUT MUCH OF REGION IS UNDERNEATH               
SCT CU AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT THIS CU TO BECOME TEMPO BKN THIS                     
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN THAT SHOULDN'T AFFECT TAF              
SITES BUT WILL BE IN VISCINITY. TEMPO IS TOO PESSIMISTIC FOR THE                
EXPECTED TIME COVERAGE AS SHOWERS ARE BASICALLY SHORT LIVED EARLY               
THIS AFTERNOON. PROBS CAN'T BE USED IN 1ST 9 HOURS...SO I'M LEFT                
WITH WAITING TO SEE IF TSRA WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AND AMENDING WHEN             
IT DEVELOPS.                                                                    
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO GO BACK TO FEW/SCT OR             
EVEN CLEAR FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. MISSED FOG ON YESTERDAYS FCST FOR              
THIS MORNING...AM INCLUDING IT TONIGHT AS SAME AMS WILL BE IN PLACE.            
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH AND WILL DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT.                        
MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS                 
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90                     
NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER            
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND              
90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD               
COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES.                                       
MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE                 
1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED              
FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS            
THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR                      
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS                   
IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP            
AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER            
CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T               
STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK                 
ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.                                            
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY              
ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.                  
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
1020 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...                                                          
SCT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS                 
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 90                     
NORTHWEST. SERN FCST AREA IS LOWER ON TEMPS WITH THE EXPECTED SHOWER            
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND              
90 HERE AS WELL...BUT BY THAT TIME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND CLOUD               
COVER IF NOT PRECIP WILL HOLD DOWN MAXES.                                       
MODIFIED SOUNDING IS LOADED AND PWATS INCREASE TO AN IMPRESSIVE                 
1.67. LACK OF FLOW WILL HAVE ANY OF THESE STORMS PRODUCE LOCALIZED              
FLOODING AND SPS WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE STORMS            
THAT DO DEVELOP. ALSO REQUESTED GOES RAPID SCAN TO MONITOR                      
DEVELOPMENT OF CU THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS AS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCT.               
HOWEVER...INCREASED PWATS AND THE MODIFIED CAPE OF 33-3500 IS                   
IMPRESSIVE. WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP            
AN EYE ON OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. H5 VORT WILL BE FOUND SOMEWHERE OVER            
CWA AND MODELS HAVE IT MORE PREVALENT IN THE EAST. THE VORT ISN'T               
STRONG...AND SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SPARK                 
ACTIVITY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.                                            
DO NOT EXPECT TO CHANGE THE PUBLIC FORECAST AT ALL FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FCST HAS SCT STORMS AND HIGHS AROUND WHERE THEY              
ARE EXPECTED...AND A NOD TOWARDS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.                  
FRANKS                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH                                          
632 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES WITH                 
GENERALLY MVFR VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.  THE EXCEPTION WAS KLUK WHERE             
VLIFR CONDITIONS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS                 
OVER CENTRAL IN/OH.                                                             
HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPO FOR TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY.  LATEST RUC                  
SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS THAN THE NAM.               
IT SHOWS MID LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER IL DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL                 
INDIANA AT 18Z AND THEN LIKELY OVER THE REGION OF THE TAFS BY 00Z.              
THUS HAVE PUSHED BACK TSRA TO LATTER IN THE DAY DURING PEAK                     
DAYTIME HEATING.  AFT 00Z...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST                
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A FEW MORE CLOUDS.                                       
TIPTON                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 328 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...                                      
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MRNG AS OH VLY REMAINS UNDER UPR RIDGE.              
TSTMS REMAIN WELL OFF TO NORTH AND WEST INVOF FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED                
ACRS CNTRL GRT LKS.  TEMPS WERE AROUND 70 DEG ATTM.                             
MORE OF THE SAME FOR THE SHORT TERM AS UPR RIDGE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED              
ACRS EASTERN CONUS.  DIURNAL HEATING AND SBCAPES APPCHG 2000 J/KG               
WILL AGAIN BE MAIN CATALYSTS IN TSTM DVLPMNT TODAY.  CHANCES FOR                
TSTMS DO LOOK BETTER THAN TUES AS MID LVL S/WV MOVES ACRS REGION                
THIS AFTN.  THIS FEATURE SHWNG UP NICELY ON WATER VAPOR SAT THIS                
MRNG ACRS MID MISSISSIPPI VLY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT DUE TO                
EXPECTED BETTER COVERAGE...RANGING FROM 30 POPS IN WEST CNTRL OH                
TO 40 POPS ACRS SRN 1/2 FCST AREA.  TSTMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT                
AT PEAK HEATING DURING AFTN HOURS.  HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF QUESTION               
THAT MAY SEE CONVECTION BEGIN TO DVLP AS ERLY AS MID MRNG (14-15Z)              
ACRS TRI STATE AREA AS S/WV APPCHS FROM WEST.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR               
STORM IS POSSIBLE...PRIMARY CONCERN FROM TSTMS WILL BE POTENTIAL                
FOR HVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MODEL SOUNDINGS INDCG RISE                
IN PWATS TO 1.8-1.9 IN THIS AFTN AND WITH STORM MOTION PROGGED AT               
LESS THAN 10KTS...GOING TO SEE SOME VERY SLOW MOVING TSTMS.  THUS               
HAVE INDICATED HVY RAIN IN ZONES.  TSTMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVNG               
AS S/WV MOVES EAST OF FCST AREA AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.                    
PINPOINTING EXACT DETAILS REGARDING STRENGTH/TIMING OF MID LVL                  
VORTS THRU REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO VARY BTWN 00Z GFS                
AND NAM SOLNS.  WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THURS AND                         
FRI...FOCUSING MAX POPS DURING AFTN/EVNG HOURS IN ACCORD WITH PEAK              
HEATING.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SLGT CHC POPS TO OVERNIGHTS THURS AND                 
FRI NIGHTS.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL BE LOWER...ANY MID LVL                 
FORCING THAT CAN WORK ACRS THE FCST AREA MAY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF                
AN ISOLD TSTM OR TWO.  FRNTL BNDRY WILL REMAIN ACRS GRT LKS INTO                
WEEKEND AS UPR RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE ACRS EASTERN CONUS.                
THIS WILL KEEP WARM HUMID AIRMASS ACRS OH VLY.                                  
TEMPS...MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE TO               
CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN TUES MAXS.                     
WARMEST TEMPS WILL RESIDE ACRS NRN FCST AREA WITH U80S EXPECTED.                
MID 80S EXPECTED FOR THURS/FRI.  GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO                 
PUMP INTO OH VLY...AND DEWPTS PROGGED TO AROUND 70 BY THURS/FRI.                
MAV GUID HAS BEEN VERY GOOD AS OF LATE...AND SAW NO REASON TO                   
STRAY.                                                                          
RYAN                                                                            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                         
ADJUSTED POPS SAT TO CARRY A CHANCE ALL DAY.  OTHERWISE...MADE NO               
CHANGES TO EXTENDED.  PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM TUES AFTN                  
FOLLOWS BELOW.                                                                  
RYAN                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 132 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                           
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS                  
WITH BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER TAF SITES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS              
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.  LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING SOME FOG BEGINNING              
TO DEVELOP.                                                                     
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN THIS MORNING WITH KDAY...KCMH AND KLCK             
SEEING MORE OF AN MVFR SUN RISE SURPRISE.  KILN AND KCVG WILL DROP              
INTO IFR WITH KLUK DROPPING INTO VLIFR.                                         
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY WHICH WILL                   
RESULT IN MORE CLOUD COVER.  A MID LEVEL WAVE IN BEDDED IN THE DEEP             
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED                     
CONVECTION.  FOR ALL TAF SITES HAVE CB MENTIONED FOR MUCH OF THE                
DAY AS THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION EXITS PRETTY MUCH FROM 14/15Z ON               
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A 4 HOUR TEMPO                   
GROUP WITH TSRA WHICH FOCUSES ON THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT.  WIND                  
FIELDS SUGGEST SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOTS OF                  
RAIN.  THIS MEANS IF STORMS FORM NEAR OR OVER TAF SITES THAT THE                
AIRPORT COULD BE AFFECTED FOR A WHILE.                                          
TIPTON                                                                          
(ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)                                              
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...                                           
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BERMUDA             
HIGH WILL SHIELD THE REGION FROM MAJOR SYSTEMS, BUT A MOIST UNSTABLE            
AIRMASS WILL PERSIST. LACK OF STRONG UPPER SUPPORT AND SURFACE                  
CONVERGENCE POINTS TO A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAYTIME CONVECTION AND               
NIGHTTIME DISSIPATION. THEREFORE, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS EACH DAY AND            
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY INCREASE ON               
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE.                      
PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL              
TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO               
UPPER 60S.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OH...NONE.                                                                      
KY...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                                       
930 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
DIURNAL HEATING/CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM HAS PASSED AND WE'RE LEFT WITH               
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK                       
SHORTWAVE/MOISTURE SURGE TRAVELING UP THE SPINE OF THE                          
APPALACHIANS ACTS ON ALREADY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR MASS               
OVERNIGHT IN PRESENCE OF WEAK SHEAR. BUFKIT AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW              
THIN CAPE PROFILE LINGERING OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT CENTRAL PA WITH                
PWATS NEAR 1.5" WHILE WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS FORCED BY THE              
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. WL REMOVE HIGHER EVENING POPS IN QUICK                   
UPDATE - NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT PRESENT.                                    
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 216 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                        
CU POPPING OVER THE HIGHER RIDGE LINES THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY                 
CLIMB ENUF TO MAKE A BRIEF SHOWER IN PLACES TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF            
UNV.  WEAK FEATURE THAT FIRED THE CONVECTION OVER LK ERIE IS NOW                
MEETING UP WITH THE CU IN THE NW MTS...BUT RADAR RETURNS NOT OBVIOUS            
AS OF 17Z. WILL BE PATIENT...AND ALLOW THE SFC HEATING AND MODEST               
COOLING ALOFT TO WORK FOR A BIT LONGER BEFORE DROPPING POPS FROM                
CURRENT CHC RANGE IN THE N/W FOR THIS EVENING...TO SLIGHTS FOR THE              
REST OF THE NIGHT.  OVERNIGHT MINS WILL STAY MILD...AND HUMIDITY                
WILL BE NOTICEABLE...WITH DWPTS IN THE 60S.                                     
NEWEST MOS GUID IS NOW QUITE A FEW DEGS COOLER WITH MAXES ON                    
THURSDAY...I BELIEVE THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE.            
WILL NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A DEG OR TWO FROM CURR FCST...BUT HOLD ABOVE              
GUID DUE TO PERSISTENCE. POPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...JUST ADDING            
20 OR SO PCT. THIS PUTS MOST OF THE AREA INTO CHC CATEGORY AND OUR              
WRN COUNTIES UP TO LIKELY.  REASONS FOR INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE                  
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AND APPROACH              
OF A VORT MAX FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN THE OHIO               
VALLEY/WV. WILL ALSO TAKE A BIT OF A STEP UP IN WORDING AND MENTION             
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS DUE TO NIL FLOW ALOFT              
TO PUSH THEM AROUND AND THE HIGHER LLVL MOISTURE.                               
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                 
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A             
TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A RIDGE IN THE EAST. MREF 500 HPA ANOMALIES              
ARE ON THE ORDER OF -1 TO -1.5SD BELOW NORMAL WITH THE WESTERN                  
TROUGH. THE RIDGE IN THE EAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE                     
ANOMALOUS APPROACHING +2SDS. THE CLOSED 588DM CONTOUR OVER THE                  
CAROLINAS AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH A                
GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ITS ABOUT 6DM LOWER THAN THE VALUE            
ASSOCIATED WITH OUR PROTRACTED HEAT WAVES WHEN WE EXPECT A CLOSED               
594DM CONTOUR IN THE SAME REGION. NONE THE LESS...WE ARE IN FOR AN              
EXTENDED TIME OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LIKE MANY PREVIOUS HEAT             
WAVES...THIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUMP ABOVE NORMAL                    
MOISTURE AROUND ITS WESTERN FLANKS. THE SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY MAKE              
THE WEATHER A BIT MORE INTERESTING THEN THE GENERAL HEAT.                       
MOST EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TOWARD MORE NORMAL                          
CONDITIONS...MOST SHOW THE PRECIPITABLE WATER GOING BACK TO NEAR                
NORMAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE             
UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FORECASTS.                                               
FRIDAY...WITH H5 THICKNESS VALUES RUNNING ABOUT +1.5SD ABOVE NORMAL             
AND 850 HPA TEMPS ABOUT +1SD ABOVE NORMAL...IT SHOULD BE A WARM DAY.            
THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVING              
NORTHWARD OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY JET...THIS COULD FIRE OFF            
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION COULD REDUCE THE            
HEATING. THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IS PRIMED FOR SOME AFTERNOON                    
CONVECTION....HOWEVER...SREFS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL 700 HPA                         
TEMPS...NEAR 8C WHICH COULD PRODUCE A STRONG CAP. PWAT VALUES SURGE             
TO ABOUT 2 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT +2.5SDS ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH                     
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HIGH CAPE TOO. SREF PLUMES SHOW MEDIAN              
CAPE AT MOST PA STATION NEAR 1500JKG-1 FRIDAY.                                  
THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET INTO THE REGION WITH THE PWAT SURGE                
IMPLIES A STRONG NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THUR-FRIDAY. ANY              
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF             
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OLD PWAT RULE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE             
1-2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL IF WE GET CONVECTION. THE INDIVIDUAL                 
MODELS AND EPS SEEM TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE LLJ BUT MORE                      
CONSISTENT WITH THE VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES.                                      
SATURDAY...THE THICKNESS RIDGE AND ANOMALIES BUILD TO THE NORTH. PA             
IS ABOUT +1.5 SD ABOVE NORMAL THERMALLY. THE PWAT STAYS HIGH...BUT              
THE HIGHEST VALUES SURGE TO OUR NORTH..SOME AREAS IN NEW YORK AND               
NEW ENGLAND ARE IN THE +3SD RANGE. THIS SUGGESTS PA IS UNDER THE                
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE SO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF THUNDER              
THAN FRIDAY. BUT STILL WARM AND HUMID AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SCATTERED            
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PWAT FIELDS SHOW AN INTERESTING FEATURES...THE               
TROPICAL AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST CREATES AN INTERESTING GRADIENT WITH            
COOLER AND DRIER ATLANTIC AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE POLE-WARD                   
TRANSPORT OF WARM TROPICAL AIR COMMON IN HEAT WAVES AND WARM                    
EPISODES.                                                                       
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...STILL THERMAL AND MOISTURE WISE ABOVE NORMAL.               
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.               
SLIGHTLY LOWER MOISTURE AND MODEL CAPE FORECASTS ARE LESS ROBUST IN             
1800 TO 0000 UTC TIME FRAME THESE TWO DAYS RELATIVE TO                          
FRIDAY-SATURDAY. SOME NCEP MREF MEMBERS SHOW A SECOND SURGE IN THE              
LLJ THAT COULD INCREASE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WEST SUNDAY. BUT THIS              
IS NOT A HIGH PROBABILITY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.                                
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A SLOW DRYING IS FORECAST IN THIS TIME                  
PERIOD. THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT +1SD ABOVE                
NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND BACK TO SEASONABLY VALUES BY WEDNESDAY. THIS              
SUGGESTS THAT OUR MINI-HEAT EPISODE WILL COME TO AN END. THE THERMAL            
AND THICKNESS ANOMALIES WEAKEN AND ARE BACK TO NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.             
THE PRESENCE OF SOME NORTHERLY 850 HPA WIND ANOMALIES WED-THU HOLDS             
UP THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE-WED MAY                
SERVE AS TRIGGER FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION...BUT THIS TOO WILL              
CHANGE.                                                                         
AVIATION...                                                                     
WDLY SCT CONVECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE                    
TAFS...ESP VCNTY KBFD/KJST...BUT REST OF AREA HAS SUCH A LOW PROB TO            
GET A SHOWER THAT I WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA ATTM. WILL            
ALSO JUST KEEP VCTS TO BFD WITH TEMPO TS. AFTER 02Z...MOST OF THE CU            
WILL DIE AWAY...AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH ANOTHER SLIGHTLY MUGGY                 
NIGHT AND FOG WILL BE A WORRY ONCE AGAIN AT KIPT...BUT NOT REALLY               
ELSEWHERE. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG/HZ IN MOST TAFS FOR                
EARLY AM THOUGH. CIGS TO REMAIN VFR.                                            
&&                                                                              
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D IN A WANING MODE AT                          
PRESENT...WITH DENSE COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND                
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...NEW CELLS DEVELOPING              
IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. KFFC 88-D              
SHOWS MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SHIFTING SLOWLY                    
TOWARD OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS              
EVENING INDICATES A WEAK WIND SHIFT BETWEEN KFFC AND KBMX RAOB                  
SITES...IMPLYING PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.                          
MEANWHILE...KGSP 88-D VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY SHOWS A WEAK                     
UPSLOPE COMPONENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF                         
HOURS...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE NEW PROLIFERATION OF SMALL CELLS                
IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST                
GEORGIA. BOTH RUC AND LATEST 12KM NAM SEEM TO BELIEVE THE                       
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH WITH OUR MOIST...UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS TO KEEP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST FAVORED               
UPSLOPE AREAS WITHIN OUR CWFA BORDER OVERNIGHT.                                 
FOR THE UPDATE...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE               
TWO NORTHERN-MOST FOOTHILL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE TWO              
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES (ALEXANDER/CATAWBA); THESE ARE LOCATIONS             
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION COVERING              
THE FOOTHILLS AT PRESENT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST                
ON THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL FEATURE 50 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE              
MOUNTAINS...IREDELL/MECKLENBURG AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND                  
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND              
FINALLY ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF                   
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...IN ANTICIPATION THAT WEAK BUT SEVERAL                  
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THOSE                    
LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED AS 40 PERCENT FOR ALL OTHER                 
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING OUR EASTERN MOST FOUR ADJACENT TO THE                     
RALEIGH FORECAST OFFICE...AND FOR CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA                
FROM GREENVILLE AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO LAURENS AND GREENWOOD.         
NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND NOT                  
MUCH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MERCURY WILL VARY MUCH FROM WHAT                       
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. MOST LOCATIONS GOT RAINFALL EARLIER                       
TODAY...AND AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE                       
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME FAIRLY DENSE AND SO WILL                   
ADVERTISE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 309 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
WEAK SHORT WAVE OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT              
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORT               
WAVE...HIGH TERRAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PLAY AS THE MAIN            
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES               
ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 1K OVER THE MTNS TO 2500 J/KG EAST WITH               
NORTHWARD STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS. WITH PW/S > 1.5" AND K-INDEX              
IN THE L30S COMBINED WITH THE SLOW PROPAGATION...EXPECT THAT                    
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. ISO MARGINAL HAIL               
EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MODERATE CAPE                      
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ICE GROWTH REGIONS ARE HIGH AND WBZ IS > 13K               
FEET. WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST OF                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE ONCE                 
AGAIN INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MIDLANDS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE            
THU. ALSO...CONTINUED FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER               
TONIGHT AIDED BY UPSLOPE LIFT. WILL KEEP SCT POPS GOING UNTIL 10Z               
TONIGHT. LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ON THE NAM LATE TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL               
ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS SITUATION. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST VIS/CEILINGS              
WILL REMAIN EAST...WILL WORD PATCHY FOG AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKY.                                                                            
THU THROUGH SATURDAY...PATTERN REMAINS...WHILE ATLANTIC MOISTURE                
CONTINUES TO THICKEN OVER THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN                
ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE              
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS...WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS.                    
ATMOSPHERE MAY DRY A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES               
THE MS DELTA...THIS LOW COULD BECOME T.S. ARLENE. EXPECT THAT SAT               
HIGHS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRI AND KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE.            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE STARTS OUT JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN                
RETROGRADES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY BEFORE            
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE             
SUNDAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THRU WITH               
SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL                   
HEATING WILL KEEP CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY BETTER                
OVER THE MTNS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL HAVE CHC             
POP WED...BUT MORE OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT.            
OPERATIONAL MEX HIGHS HAVE COME BACK TOWARD ITS PREVIOUS                        
NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. DID GO TOWARD THE HIGHER OF             
THE OPERATIONAL TEMPS OR ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH               
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FCST.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE VCTS ALL                        
SITES...WITH SHORT TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE START OF THE TAFS WHERE               
THUNDER IS IMMINENT. WILL AMEND FOR NEW/ADDITIONAL CELLS AS                     
NECESSARY. MDLS WERE OVERDONE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS LAST NIGHT...AND             
EXPECT THEY ARE AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE AND WEAK SLY FLOW...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS             
REMAIN HIGH. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE KEEPING VCTS THROUGH MUCH OF              
THE EVENING...THEN BRINGING IN MVFR FOG. DID TEMPO SOME IFR FOG AT              
KHKY AND IFR FOG/MVFR CIGS AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...IN LINE WITH               
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD KEEP SITES FROM             
SOCKING IN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY. TEMPOED IN SOME               
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AT LOCATIONS WHERE THEY OCCURRED THIS             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...SAB                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
840 PM MDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWED DECENT WAVE MOVING                
INTO WESTERN WY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER ID.             
WELL DEFINED AREA OF DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET                 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RESULT HAS BEEN INCREASING RADAR RETURNS            
OVER WY/NE/FAR SOUTHWEST SD THIS EVENING.                                       
HOWEVER...00Z KUNR/KRIW SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT DRY LAYER TO                    
OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND SUBSTANTIALLY. 00Z             
RUC SHOWS THIS WILL HAPPEN AS PERSISTENT LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE CWA            
TONIGHT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE INCREASED POPS 06Z-18Z THU              
AND WILL GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING TONIGHT.                                      
REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
SD...NONE.                                                                      
WY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HELGESON                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA             
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD                                         
1050 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
PRECIP HAS EXITED THE EASTERN CWA...AND BIGGEST ISSUE RIGHT NOW IS              
STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPING ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE COOL POOL              
BEHIND THE PRECIP. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND                
SHIFT EAST AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE SLIDE FARTHER EAST               
THROUGH THE CWA...BUT UNTIL THEN...HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT EFFECT              
THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE ON TEMPS. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE GOING HIGHS AS              
IS...WITH EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE STRATUS AND             
SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPS AS WEST WINDS HELP WITH MIXING.  HOWEVER...              
WILL HAVE TO PLAY WITH HOURLY TEMP TREND IN THE GRIDS.                          
WILL LEAVE GOING PRECIP CHANCE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING              
AS IS...AS 12Z RUC...AND MORESO THE NAM...SHOW THE FRONT A LITTLE               
BIT SLOWER THAN GOING FORECAST HAD. HOWEVER...CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT             
MAY ALSO BE AFFECTED BY RECOVERY FROM STRATUS/COLD POOL...AND THIS              
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL KEEP GOING CHANCE OF TSRA IN SOUTHEAST            
CWA FOR LATE AFTERNOON...AND IF STORMS DO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...            
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO GET SOME SEVERE              
STORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON              
AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS THE CWA.                               
WILL UPDATE ZFP SHORTLY TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP MENTION AND BUMP UP            
CLOUD WORDING ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.                   
&&                                                                              
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
SD...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
 HACKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1039 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT MID-MORNING...AS ONLY                 
ONGOING CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.                       
TEMPERATURES AT 15Z GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH                   
SOUTHWEST WINDS. DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.                              
WEAK SHEAR AXIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH AT                 
LEAST FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MEMPHIS INDICATE THAT THE                  
AIRMASS IS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CONVECTION. RUC SOUNDING              
MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE NAM WITH CAPES 4000 ON THE RUC WITH 2500 ON              
THE NAM THIS AFTERNOON.                                                         
SEE NO REASON TO MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST. NO UPDATES                 
CURRENTLY PLANNED.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
WAGNER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA                                           
416 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
RADAR COMPOSITES HAVE BEGUN TO LIGHT UP OVER THE PAST HOUR...AS                 
CONVECTIVE TEMPS (AROUND 90) HAVE BEEN REACHED. CELLS TODAY HAVE                
INITIATED ALONG SEA/BAY BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS              
THE RIC METRO AREA. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE ONCE AGAIN                 
FIRING FARTHER W TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS (WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW).             
MODIFIED LAPS/RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES NEARING 3500 J/KG...WITH                 
VERY HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONCE AGAIN (OVER 45KFT) FAVORING                   
QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST CELLS. WEAK                   
WINDS ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS (AROUND 5               
KTS)...WITH HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREAT.                      
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (~14KFT)...SO HAIL THREAT WILL BE                   
LIMITED TO CELLS WITH HIGH REFLECTIVITY CORES WELL ABOVE THE                    
FREEZING LEVEL (AOA 35 KFT).                                                    
COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE STORY THIS EVENING...                  
WHICH WILL HELP TO FIRE NEW CONVECTION. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH              
POPS GIVEN THE MESOSCALE NATURE...THOUGH GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR                
TRENDS DID OPT FOR THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND ON EITHER                
SIDE OF THE CURRENT BROKEN LINE OF CELLS.                                       
BOTH THE GFS/ETA SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL STRATUS LATE                  
TONIGHT. THIS AS THE LOW LEVEL AGEO FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY                 
(VS. EASTERLY) AND DRAWS HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS               
WOULD BE MORE OF AN ISSUE ON THU...AS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE/HIGHER DWPTS WOULD MAKE FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS CLOSER TO                 
80F VS. 90F. SO...WOULD ANTICIPATED A CLOUDIER DAY TOMORROW...NOT               
AT HOT...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MORE SCT-NUMEROUS VS. ISOLATED.               
K INDICES IN THE MID 30S WOULD ALSO SUPPORT A HIGHER THREAT FOR                 
HEAVY RAIN.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
VFR...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN VICINITY OF ANY                        
SHRA/TSTMS...AND AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY                 
MORNING IN FOG.                                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...                                                                      
PERSISTENT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND SEAS                  
3 FT OR LESS INTO SUNDAY. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK THURSDAY.                        
&&                                                                              
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MD...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
VA...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...13                                                                 
LONG TERM...13                                                                  
AVIATION...22                                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   va                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
900 PM CDT WED JUN 8 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION                 
FOR BALANCE OF WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.                                   
RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE OF A CAP THAN PREVIOUS NAM.  EVEN THOUGH MID            
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNSTABLE...RUC SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY ALOFT.              
THEREFORE DOUBT THERE IS MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR TSTRMS TONIGHT.                   
MODELS DEVELOP INSTAB AXIS AGAIN ACRS CWA TOMORROW AND ALSO FRIDAY.             
ALSO BNDRY IS IN VCNTY. CAPES APPCH 2K. AGAIN THE UPR FORCING NOT               
IMPRESSIVE THO SFC HEATING ALONG WITH MOIST UNSTBL AMS PROB ENUF TO             
KEEP CHCS GOING.                                                                
SAME STORY FRI AND ACTUALLY RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. SW UPR FLOW WITH            
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALONG THE WAY. MODELS SHOWING SYMPTOMS OF                 
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH NUMEROUS STG VORT CENTERS POPPING UP ALONG             
THE WAY.                                                                        
PER COORD WITH SURROUNDING WFO/S QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A                  
PERIOD TO GO DRY IN THIS SW UPR FLOW...MOIST/UNSTBL REGIME WITH                 
POTENTIAL FOR A WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS WILL KEEP CHC                  
WORDING GOING THROUGH TUE.                                                      
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
140 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
WDLY SCT -TSRA CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES...HAD A RPT OF TREES DOWN IN             
COOPERSTOWN ARND 11:15 PM. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR TDA.            
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOW A VORT MAX OVER INDIANA (SAT LOOP SUGGESTS             
IT IS LIKELY AN MCV) WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TWDS THE FCST AREA LATE                
TDA AND TNGT. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED TROPICAL MSTR WILL BE MOVG NEWD               
INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW WITH SOME WEAK RIPPLES. AREA LEAST LIKELY              
TO SEE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FAR SE ZONES (WRN CATSKILLS AND                   
POCONOS) WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST (REFLECTED              
IN LOWER K INDICES). OTRW XPCT SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS TO FIRE UP LATER              
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG WITH RGN FIRMLY IN THE 850                 
THETA-E AXIS. SVR SETUP NOT GREAT BUT A FEW SVR PULSE NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION, SIMILIAR TO YDA.                                                      
WILL SHOW A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM SE TO NW, WITH HIGHEST VALUES                 
(LIKELY) ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK               
VLY. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DSPT LATE EVNG BUT WITH REMANTS OF S/WV              
LINGERING AND FACT THAT SCT CONVECTION IS ONGOING TNGT ACRS THE FCST            
AREA AND UPSTREAM, WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. MORE OF               
THE SAME FOR TMRW AS THE DIRTY BERMUDA HIGH PTRN HANGS TUFF. MDLS               
HINT AT MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPR FLOW WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY.              
WILL USE HIGH CHC POPS AND SCT TERMINOLOGY FOR FRI. LOOKS COOLER                
BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV/MET AND WARMER FWC.                  
&&                                                                              
.LONG RANGE (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)                                            
WESTERN ATLANTIC AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN             
IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE            
FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME EXTENDED FORECAST GOING                
WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AROUND THE PERIMETER OF             
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE            
MID 80S...THEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.                                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (09/00Z -10/00Z)...                                                   
VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT VALLEY FOG                 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/MVFR              
AT KELM/KUCA/KAVP.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH              
GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH A SHRA/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...ESPECIALLY AT             
KSYR/KUCA.  -CEMPA                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
236 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)...                                             
THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500              
MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND                   
SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE                      
INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND              
LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                      
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY             
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN               
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED                
STATES THIS MORNING.                                                            
SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND                
EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA.  SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL             
LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA.                      
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY               
CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60            
PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                   
I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4                   
PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES.  MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT            
IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY               
AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME              
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP              
LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)...                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA               
HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S.  AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY                
FLOW WL CONT.  TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON             
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.  CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A               
CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND            
P/C SKIES.  WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST. IN THE NEXT 6-9 HRS...THE NAM            
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING. RUC DOES SHOW SOME WEAK                 
THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONV OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE AREA SO SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH                 
PROBABILITY SO LOW...HAVE OPTED TO JUST PUT CB IN THE TAFS...AND NOT            
MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS.                                              
UNLIKE WED...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY UPR SUPPORT                
FOR STORMS THU AFTN. NO UPR WAVE MOVING THRU LIKE WED SO...ANY FOCUS            
FOR STORMS WL LIKELY BE FROM LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES. WL THEREFORE GO               
WITH PROB30 TSRA 18-24Z FOR ALL SITES AS CONVECTION WL BE WIDELY SCT            
AND TOUGH TO TIME INTO SPECIFIC TAF SITES. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS             
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG 09Z-13Z AND REDUCED VSBYS IN TSRA.                   
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
131 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)...                                                          
REALLY NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST. IN THE NEXT 6-9 HRS...THE NAM            
SHOWS AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING. RUC DOES SHOW SOME WEAK                 
THETA-E ADVECTION AND 850MB MOISTURE CONV OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF              
THE AREA SO SOME CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WITH                 
PROBABILITY SO LOW...HAVE OPTED TO JUST PUT CB IN THE TAFS...AND NOT            
MENTION TSRA FOR THE NEXT 9 HOURS.                                              
UNLIKE WED...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY UPR SUPPORT                
FOR STORMS THU AFTN. NO UPR WAVE MOVING THRU LIKE WED SO...ANY FOCUS            
FOR STORMS WL LIKELY BE FROM LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES. WL THEREFORE GO               
WITH PROB30 TSRA 18-24Z FOR ALL SITES AS CONVECTION WL BE WIDELY SCT            
AND TOUGH TO TIME INTO SPECIFIC TAF SITES. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS             
EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG 09Z-13Z AND REDUCED VSBYS IN TSRA.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TGNT THRU FRI NGT)...                                              
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WX THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FA RMNS UNDER               
THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY WARM AND MOIST SLY WINDS.  THESE WINDS                  
CIRCULATION ARND PERSISTENT BERNUDA HI.  COULD SEE SCT TSRA JUST ABT            
ANY TIME DURING THE PD WITH THE BEST CHCS COMING IN THE AFT AND EVE             
THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATEST 88D SHOWG SUM SCT STORMS JUST TO THE            
S OF FA AND WL PROB SEE THIS ACTIVITY EXPAND INTO AREA AS THE AFT               
PROGRESSES.  SVR THREAT NOT THERE TDA AND ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL WL            
BE WELCOMED MOST LOCATIONS.  HV CONTINUED CHC WORDG OVER WRN 1/2 OF             
AREA PAST MIDNIGHT AS CONVECTION UPSTREAM COULD MOVE IN LATER TGNT.             
MORE OF THE SAME ON THU AND COULD POSSIBLY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS TMRW             
THAN TDA.  THIS WL KEEP TEMPS FM GETTING ANY WARMER THAN TDA.                   
CONTINUING CHCS FOR T THU NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.  EXPCT TEMPS TO               
RMN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FM DAY TO DAY AND HV BUMPED TEMPS UP A LTTL FM            
GUID ON FRI.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)...                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA               
HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S.  AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY                
FLOW WL CONT.  TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON             
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.  CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A               
CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND            
P/C SKIES.  WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED.                                           
&&                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...KUBINA                                                             
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
423 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE WESTERN EDGE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MOVED LITTLE TONIGHT                    
CURRENTLY NEAR GREAT BAND AND PRATT KANSAS SUGGESTING A BALANCE HAS             
BEEN REACHED AMONG INFLOW/OUTFLOW/STRENGTH OF CAP. FARTHER EAST...              
WHERE THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER...CONVECTION HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE                 
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY OFFER ONLY LITTLE INSIGHT              
INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL            
SHORTCOMINGS AND POOR DATA INITIALIZATION DOMINATE THEIR FORECASTS.             
THE NAM MAINTAINS A CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM/MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERIC              
PROFILE 12-00Z THAN THE OTHER MODELS RESULTING IN BIG CAPES/LOW CIN             
WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN ITS PERSISTENCE ON THE MCS CONTINUING                       
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONGER CAP. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR                   
CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE MCS HAS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF             
DOING THIS. RATHER...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE SOUTHWARD               
PROGRESS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AT              
THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY EAST OF A             
LINE FROM MEDFORD TO GUTHRIE AND HOLDENVILLE WITH THE GUST FRONT                
MAKING IT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING                
LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS WILL RESULT IN                
LOWER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS OVER            
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE ORIGINATING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR A             
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.             
LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL RELY MOSTLY ON IF AND HOW MANY               
STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS                      
PANHANDLES AND ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY                   
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES POPS WILL RANGE              
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.                                                          
THE DRYLINE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR POSSIBLE              
CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS            
CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND               
NORTH WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHS WILL BE MOST FELT.                       
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  70 /  40  20  20  30                              
HOBART OK         96  71  94  68 /  30  30  30  40                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  94  70 /  20  20  30  30                              
GAGE OK           92  69  91  65 /  30  30  40  50                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  71  90  70 /  80  20  20  40                              
DURANT OK         91  72  92  71 /  40  20  20  20                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
416 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION                 
FOR BALANCE OF THE WEEK.                                                        
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTORMS OVER NE IA             
ARE INITIATING AROUND 4-5 KFT WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN EVIDENT.                    
CORFIDI VECTORS POINT NEWD INTO WI AS VERIFIED BY NEWD MOVEMENT OF              
PCPN. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND CIN DOES INCREASE SLIGHTLY           
INTO WI. NEVERTHELESS...WILL ACCOUNT FOR ANY PCPN IN THE SOUTH THIS             
AM BUT MENTION ONLY PM CHANCE IN THE NORTH.                                     
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN WI WHICH                     
TURNS SWWD TO MSP AND INTO ERN NE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DRIFT                
TOWARD CNTRL/SRN WI TODAY PROVIDING ONLY VERY WEAK SFC                          
CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX OVER NW              
MO WILL DRIFT NEWD OVER SRN WI LATE THIS AFT AND INTO EVENING. 305K             
AND 310K ISENTROPIC MAPS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE TRANSPORT           
AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX. THIS LIFT            
AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD             
BE ENOUGH FOR SCT TSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES WILL               
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG WITH WET BULB ZERO HTS AROUND 10 KFT.                 
DESPITE WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KNOTS...A SEVERE STORM WILL                  
REMAIN POSSIBLE.                                                                
A MOIST SLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW FLOW ALOFT THEN PREVAILS FROM                
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATM WILL BE WEAKLY CAPPED WITH MDT                 
AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE              
TROFS AND/OR BOUNDARIES WILL HELP INITIATE SCT CONVECTION THROUGH               
THE PERIOD.                                                                     
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
GEHRING                                                                         
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
1030 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.MORNING DISCUSSION...                                                          
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE               
AGAIN. HAVE HAD SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED TSRA THIS MORNING WITH SOME              
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON 12Z DVN SOUNDING. OF MORE                
CONCERN IS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACROSS NORTHERN              
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST THIS            
AFTERNOON. SOME ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW NOTED IN WINCHESTER PROFILER               
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS VORT MAX. SIMILAR SURFACE                 
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE OF PAST COUPLE DAYS ALSO. WET BULB ZERO                   
HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL BUT               
WILL NEED SOME WATCHING THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. NO                
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS FOR               
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH NUDGING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES            
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  NDM                                                   
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
SAME FOCUS IN TAFS TODAY...AS WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE              
TO DEMAND CLOSE ATTENTION.                                                      
AREA OF DYING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING                     
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH                 
ALOFT...AND AIDED BY 30 KT H85 JET ACROSS MO AND INTO MS VLY.                   
ATMOSPHERE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG                 
SEVERAL LINGERING OUTFLOWS DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD                  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN IL NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS             
AND RESULTING DECREASE IN THETA-E ADVECTION/MOIST CONVERGENCE. HAVE             
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR EVEN VCTS.                            
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE            
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING TODAY...AND                   
SBCAPES AGAIN REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NO CIN BY EARLY                      
AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND                   
POTENTIALLY STRONGER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY...SUGGEST SCT                   
CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. 00Z UCAR 4KM RUC AND              
06Z NAM/MESO-ETA RUNS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTMS                     
DEVELOPING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN IA AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD.               
THUS AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS DURG MOST UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS.            
SHOULD AGAIN SEE DIURNAL DECREASE TO ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS BETTER            
FORCING/INSTABILITY BECOMES FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS NEB/IA.                   
AS FOR WINDS...LIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WHICH ALONG                
WITH DISRUPTION FROM LINGERING OUTFLOWS LEADING TO LIGHT                        
VRBL...THOUGH GNRLY WSW WINDS THIS MORNING. FORECAST 950 HPA FLOW               
ONLY 5-10 KTS FROM SOUTH...SO EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE               
DVLPMNT BY EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BOTH KORD/KMDW...AND EVEN             
A SLGT NE WIND AT KGYY. SHOULD GO BACK TO LGT SOUTHERLY LATER THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                 
340 AM CDT                                                                      
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO KY-TN-AR THIS MORNING. AMS                    
STABILIZED SOME AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF IL ONLY IN LOW             
60S. HOWEVER...15 TO 25 KT SWLY 850 FLOW SEEN IN PROFILERS. THIS                
APPEARS TO BE CAUSING PULSY CONVECTION OVER W AND CNTRL IL THIS                 
MORNING. VERY SLOW NEWD DRIFT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH            
WEAKENING 850 FLOW PROGGED THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD             
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AIR MASS WILL              
DESTABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN            
DEWPOINTS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED TSTMS                   
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON BUT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKE THERE WILL BE               
ANYTHING ORGANIZED...WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING INTO PLAINS.                      
NEXT WAVE COMING OUT OF BIG WESTERN US TROF SEEN IN SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY OVER UT MOVING NE. NEXT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF                      
THROUGH CA TODAY AND INTO PLAINS FRI AND UPR MS VLY SAT. NEARLY                 
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY N AND W OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.               
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO                
CONTINUE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DAILY.               
WESTERN SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MON. THIS IS THIRD            
DAY IN A ROW THAT GFS HAS ADVERTISED FRONT MOVING THROUGH IL ON MON.            
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION GROWING DAY BY DAY. TIMING THIS FAR OUT             
STILL NOT CERTAIN AND SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO BE HOLDING ON TO              
PRECIP THROUGH MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/20               
PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS BUT WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST IN WORDING OF               
ZONES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT REFRESHING. HOPE IT PANS OUT.                  
WITH WEAK GRADIENT...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY. OTHERWISE             
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.                                       
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
625 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
SAME FOCUS IN TAFS TODAY...AS WINDS AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE              
TO DEMAND CLOSE ATTENTION.                                                      
AREA OF DYING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING                     
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH                 
ALOFT...AND AIDED BY 30 KT H85 JET ACROSS MO AND INTO MS VLY.                   
ATMOSPHERE ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH INITIATION OCCURRING ALONG                 
SEVERAL LINGERING OUTFLOWS DURING THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD                  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHERN IL NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ WEAKENS             
AND RESULTING DECREASE IN THETA-E ADVECTION/MOIST CONVERGENCE. HAVE             
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR EVEN VCTS.                            
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MODERATE            
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH HEATING TODAY...AND                   
SBCAPES AGAIN REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG WITH NO CIN BY EARLY                      
AFTERNOON. PRESENCE OF MANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND                   
POTENTIALLY STRONGER LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY TODAY...SUGGEST SCT                   
CONVECTION AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. 00Z UCAR 4KM RUC AND              
06Z NAM/MESO-ETA RUNS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF TSTMS                     
DEVELOPING ALONG STATIONARY FRONT IN IA AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD.               
THUS AGAIN HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS DURG MOST UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS.            
SHOULD AGAIN SEE DIURNAL DECREASE TO ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS BETTER            
FORCING/INSTABILITY BECOMES FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL TSTMS NEB/IA.                   
AS FOR WINDS...LIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY...WHICH ALONG                
WITH DISRUPTION FROM LINGERING OUTFLOWS LEADING TO LIGHT                        
VRBL...THOUGH GNRLY WSW WINDS THIS MORNING. FORECAST 950 HPA FLOW               
ONLY 5-10 KTS FROM SOUTH...SO EXPECTING SOUTHEASTERLY LAKE BREEZE               
DVLPMNT BY EARLY AFTN WHICH SHOULD AFFECT BOTH KORD/KMDW...AND EVEN             
A SLGT NE WIND AT KGYY. SHOULD GO BACK TO LGT SOUTHERLY LATER THIS              
EVENING.                                                                        
RATZER                                                                          
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION FOR MORNING ZONES/GRIDS...                                          
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO KY-TN-AR THIS MORNING. AMS                    
STABILIZED SOME AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF IL ONLY IN LOW             
60S. HOWEVER...15 TO 25 KT SWLY 850 FLOW SEEN IN PROFILERS. THIS                
APPEARS TO BE CAUSING PULSY CONVECTION OVER W AND CNTRL IL THIS                 
MORNING. VERY SLOW NEWD DRIFT BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH            
WEAKENING 850 FLOW PROGGED THIS MORNING. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD             
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY. AIR MASS WILL              
DESTABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN            
DEWPOINTS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS LAST TWO DAYS. SCATTERED TSTMS                   
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON BUT DOESN'T APPEAR LIKE THERE WILL BE               
ANYTHING ORGANIZED...WITH MAIN FOCUS SHIFTING INTO PLAINS.                      
NEXT WAVE COMING OUT OF BIG WESTERN US TROF SEEN IN SATELLITE                   
IMAGERY OVER UT MOVING NE. NEXT WAVE ROUNDING BASE OF TROF                      
THROUGH CA TODAY AND INTO PLAINS FRI AND UPR MS VLY SAT. NEARLY                 
STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY N AND W OF AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.               
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE TO                
CONTINUE BROAD BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DAILY.               
WESTERN SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MON. THIS IS THIRD            
DAY IN A ROW THAT GFS HAS ADVERTISED FRONT MOVING THROUGH IL ON MON.            
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION GROWING DAY BY DAY. TIMING THIS FAR OUT             
STILL NOT CERTAIN AND SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO BE HOLDING ON TO              
PRECIP THROUGH MON NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/20               
PERCENT POPS IN GRIDS BUT WILL GO WITH DRY FORECAST IN WORDING OF               
ZONES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT REFRESHING. HOPE IT PANS OUT.                  
WITH WEAK GRADIENT...EXPECT LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP TODAY. OTHERWISE             
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.                                       
ALLSOPP                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
620 AM EST THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
12Z-12Z.                                                                        
UPR LVL HIGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH THE TAF              
PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE                    
...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTN HOURS...IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO               
FIND SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM                
DEVELOPMENT.  BOTH THE NAM AND RUC40 TAKE A WEAK VORT OVER CNTRL                
INDIANA TOWARD SE MICHIGAN BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE             
CAUSE OF SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KFWA DURING THE AFTN               
HOURS.  NEAR KSBN...THE NAM/RUC40 IS SHOWING A POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE             
EFFECT...WHICH COULD PROVIDE A BOUNDARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT            
LATE THIS AFTN. ALL IN ALL...IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF                      
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RANGE IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...AND THIS IS            
STILL JUST SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT PLACE A TEMPO TSRA AT BOTH KSBN AND              
KFWA ATTM.  LATER FCST SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WEAK SFC                     
MESOSCALE DEVELOPMENTS.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS            
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS LEFTOVER.           
AS A SIDE NOTE...KFWA WILL EXPERIENCE A LITTLE MVFR CONDITIONS THIS             
MORNING DUE TO MIST/HAZE.                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
AN UPR LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE ATLANTIC                 
SEABOARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...WHILE A PREDOMINANT TROF CONTINUES             
OVER THE WRN UNITED STATES.                                                     
ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER THE NEXT 24            
HOURS...IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE BEST CHC/S FOR            
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FEATURES ON THE MESOSCALE WILL DICTATE             
THIS.  WILL GO ALONG WITH THE NAM FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE...WHICH                 
TAKES A WEAK VORT OVER CNTRL INDIANA ATTM...TO A POSITION NEAR                  
DETROIT BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE THE MECHANISM THAT                 
TRIGGERS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE ERN               
CWFA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...THE NAM IS                    
INDICATING THAT A WEAK SFC TO 850 MB TROF WILL DEVELOP FROM LOWER               
MICHIGAN...SWWD INTO CNTRL INDIANA BY THE MID AFTN HOURS.  THE TROF             
IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LAKE                    
MICHIGAN.  THAT BEING SAID...THIS SHOULD BE THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM            
FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA.              
ATTM...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO CONTINUE THE 40 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS               
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWFA...MAINLY FOR THE AFTN HOURS.             
WITH A WEAK WIND FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO THEY             
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.                        
FOR TONIGHT...SFC TO 850 MB TROF AXIS WILL DISINTEGRATE WITH LACK OF            
SFC HEATING...AND THUS...SO SHOULD THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM                      
ACTIVITY.  WILL MAINTAIN A 30 POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.              
AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO COOL ABOUT 1 DEGREES                    
CELSIUS TODAY...SO THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING            
THE 90 DEGREE MARK.  STILL...IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH                     
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE WARM AROUND 70              
DEGREES.                                                                        
LONG TERM...                                                                    
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.                                                       
THE BEAT GOES ON. MID LEVELS OVER NOAM HAVE SETTLED INTO A STABLE               
AND PERSISTENT CONFIGURATION WITH A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH BECOMING                
ANCHORED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE                 
WESTERN U.S. DEEP BUT WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT            
MID SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE              
WEEKEND.                                                                        
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISM             
IN THE MODEL DATA THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.             
WILL USE THE LOW LEVEL JET POSITION AS A PROXY FOR MCS ACTIVITY AND             
BOTH NAM/GFS FOCUS THE NOSE OF THE PLAINS NOCTURNAL LLJ WEST OF THE             
CWA FROM IOWA TO KANSAS THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS. SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF               
THESE MCS ONCE THEY BECOME DETACHED FROM THE NOCTURNAL LLJ DIFFICULT            
TO DEPICT WITH THE OHIO VALLEY UNDER THE MIDDLE OF A LARGE THICKNESS            
RIDGE IN WHICH 850-500MB THERMAL WIND VALUES ARE GENERALLY 5KTS OR              
LESS. ANY REMAINING MCS ACTIVITY EACH DAY WILL LIKELY BUILD TOWARDS             
THE REGION OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FOCUSED              
WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY               
FOCUS FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL COME FROM THE SOUTH OUT OF             
THE GULF OF MEXICO. NAM/GFS HINTING AT THIS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH                
SEVERAL VERY WEAK SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVES SLIPPING NORTH AROUND THE              
PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. THESE WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING PERIODS             
OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE. AT THIS TIME RANGE             
THIS IS ALL JUST SPECULATION WITH CONVECTION EACH DAY BEING STRONGLY            
MODULATED BY MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED FEATURES...WHICH              
CANNOT BE RESOLVED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WILL                 
CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS EACH PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH THE                         
WEEKEND...BUT STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS LENGTHY RAIN FREE PERIODS.                  
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE ALL NOW SHOWING A GRADUAL EASING OF THIS                      
PATTERN BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. HIGH HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH            
THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL EVENTUALLY BRIDGE            
WEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTPAC.                    
MEANWHILE MORE ZONAL AND FASTER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS               
SOUTHERN CANADA AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.                
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SUPPRESSION OF THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EVENTUAL             
FROPA TO EASE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. 00Z/09 GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN              
DRIVING A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA ON TUES. PREFER THE                    
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION OF SINKING A MORE E/W ORIENTED FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH            
THROUGH THE REGION WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING              
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO            
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY SINKS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.               
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS            
A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT SINKS SOUTH                
ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IN RESPONSE TO THE                  
PATTERN ADJUSTMENT. SPC EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4 THROUGH 8 OUTLOOK AND CPC            
HAZARDS ASSESSMENT BOTH POINT TOWARD THIS SCENARIO.                             
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.MI...NONE.                                                                     
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HICKMAN                                                   
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
940 AM MDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING.             
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND KIOWA COUNTY COLORADO...SOUTH OF                   
ARAPAHOE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE            
LOW TO NEAR GOODLAND AND OBERLIN. AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS                        
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD GOODLAND IT WILL DRAG A DRYLINE INTO EXTREME             
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IN ADDITION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM                     
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT NEAR GOODLAND...AND              
THIS COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD...MAINLY DUE TO HEATING             
AND MIXING EASTWARD OF THE DRYLINE. FEEL THE GFS IS FAR TOO                     
AGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE TO NEAR HILL CITY.            
PREFER A COMBINATION OF THE RUC AND ETA...WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE              
ETA...WHICH KEEPS THE DRYLINE ALONG HIGHWAY 27 AT 21Z. ANYWHERE                 
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE...EXPECT SOUTH            
WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BE AFTERNOON. RUC IS PRODUCING                   
ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE AROUND 00Z. THE ETA              
IS A BIT MORE MARGINAL...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY...BUT                  
INCREASED TO THE WINDY CATEGORY IN THE ZONES.                                   
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FAVORED FOR                         
PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO HAVE PULLED THE 40 POPS               
ALL THE WAY WEST INTO COLORADO. CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY                
FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS A STRONG WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR                 
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF IN ARIZONA. EXPECT LOCALLY SEVERE             
STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE WESTERN TRI STATE                   
REGION. TYPICALLY...AREAS FARTHER EAST ARE MORE STRONGLY                        
CAPPED...BUT THERMO CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT            
INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR. DEEP                
RICH MOISTURE ON THE DODGE CITY SOUNDING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST               
KANSAS...AND THE ETA SHARPENS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS                
AFTERNOON WITH ZERO CIN REMAINING. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM                  
FRONT...WARM ADVECTION/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD AID                       
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTING THINGS TO START BETWEEN 20Z AND             
22Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.KS...NONE.                                                                     
.NE...NONE.                                                                     
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BURKE                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                                        
1220 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON.  LOOKS LIKE A                  
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN                
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE                  
MUCH HIGHER...DTX 1.44 INCHES  AT 12Z.  ALSO A VORT MAX IN NORTHERN             
INDIANA...DRIFTING NORTHEAST COULD HELP PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR                   
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK WIND FIELDS SUPPORT PULSE TYPE              
THUNDERSTORMS.  ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER NOT OUT OF THE POSSIBILITY              
WITH CAPE VALUES NOW OVER 2000 J/KG...BUT WET BULB ZERO VALUES ARE              
HIGH....APPROACHING 13000 FT AT DTX...WITH THE RUC KEEPING THEM                 
HIGH THROUGH THE DAY.  BASED ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS...THE CAP SHOULD             
BE GONE BY 200 PM.  SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING                  
FOR THE AFTERNOON.                                                              
ON A SIDE NOTE...THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZED REALLY BAD UPSTREAM AT 850             
MB...WITH DEWPOINT ERRORS APPROACHING 10 DEG C.                                 
&&                                                                              
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MJS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                            
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY                                              
ISSUED BY NWS BURLINGTON VT                                                     
1129 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
WILL OPT TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST TO MAKE SOME VERY MINOR CHANGES TO            
THE FIRST PERIOD. WFO BTV BACKING UP WFO ALY DURING A COMPUTER                  
UPGRADE AT ALY TODAY.                                                           
.SYNOPSIS...                                                                    
WF TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE FA TODAY. BEST UPR FORCING TO REMAIN             
TO THE WEST OF THE FA TODAY.                                                    
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...                                  
VIS SAT PIX AND SFC OBS SHOW THAT MUCH OF THE LOW-LVL FG HAS MIXED              
OUT ACRS THE FA ATTM.                                                           
SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE NRN TIER ZONES TODAY. LOW-LVL LAPSE             
RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA FOR MUCH OF TODAY.                                   
BASED ON 12-13Z RUC40 AND LATEST NAM DATA...ENVIRONMENT ACRS THE FA             
LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST MODERATELY SHEARED WITH CAPES BLW 2500 J/KG AND            
WET-BULB ZERO HTS OF 10-12.0 KFT. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA TODAY LOOK              
TO BE 1.5-1.7".                                                                 
CONVECTION EXPECTED ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FA BY LATER TODAY.              
+RA A POSSIBILITY ACRS THE FA WITH ANY TSRA. SOME HAIL AND/OR GUSTY             
WINDS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THOUGH IN ANY MORE INTENSE                    
CONVECTION. PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD THE MENTION OF +RA POSSIBLE IN ANY               
STRONGER STORMS AND WILL LEAVE THAT ALONE FOR NOW.                              
WRKZFP OUT. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ASAP. LATER...                                   
&&                                                                              
.HYDROLOGY...                                                                   
24-HR QPE ACRS THE FA (THRU 15Z TODAY) APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY BLW              
0.5"...WITH SOME ISOLATED 1"+ READINGS ACRS AREAS THAT RECEIVED                 
CONVECTION YESTERDAY. MORE +RA POSSIBLE ACRS THE FA TODAY AND INTO              
EARLY TONITE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 440 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005)                                              
SYNOPSIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION...RIGHT OVER               
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WHICH HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND                     
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. BERMUDA                
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN             
CONTINUED VERY WARM HUMID WEATHER. THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR                 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON              
AND EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF                
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.                                                 
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...BOUNDARY ACROSS FORECAST AREA              
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TODAY AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN.            
A VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAY AND MUGGY NIGHT. CONTINUED THREAT FOR                 
CONVECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS FOCUSING MECHANISM. PRECIPITABLE            
WATER FROM 00Z/THU KALB SOUNDING 1.85 INCHES...HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH             
STORMS THAT DEVELOP...REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.                               
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO               
OUR NORTH CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OROGRAPHICALLY                
ENHANCED. BERMUDA HIGH HOLDING ON STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL               
REMAIN HIGH. THE GFS INCREASES PW TO AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE                   
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY/TORRENTIAL               
DOWNPOURS...REFER TO HYDROLOGY SECTION.                                         
AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z              
WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF                   
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.            
CONVECTION TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AND THEREFORE                 
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE AS DRAMATIC.                
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME AND THEN                 
BECOME SOUTH AROUND 5KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN THIS EVENING. &&              
FIRE WEATHER...MANY AREAS RECEIVED AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY              
AND WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND            
AGAIN ON FRIDAY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN. EXCELLENT RH                    
RECOVERY THIS MORNING WITH VALUES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT...MIN              
RH TODAY 45 TO 60 PERCENT...AGAIN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH               
MAX RH 85 TO 100 PERCENT AND MIN RH ON FRIDAY OF 45 TO 65 PERCENT.              
THUS FIRE DANGER CONCERNS GREATLY DIMINISHED.                                   
HYDROLOGY...VERY HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS PARTS OF THE HSA ON                     
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WHICH RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT                 
RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS BUT WAS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO               
HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5             
TO 3 INCHES OCCURRED IN A NARROW BAND ORIENTED ENE TO WSW FROM                  
WINDHAM AND BENNINGTON COUNTIES IN VERMONT THROUGH SOUTHERN                     
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NEW YORK AND THEN BACK ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF             
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WITH MID SUMMER AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR               
THE NEXT WEEK AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND                       
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO             
HIGHLY VARIABLE QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THE MAIN CONCERN GOING FORWARD            
IN TIME WOULD BE FOR ANY TRAINING OF CELLS AND ALSO AREAS WHICH                 
RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
CT...NONE.                                                                      
MA...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
VT...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATED SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY                                          
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA                             
1045 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
NO NEED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO REWORK WORDING.            
FORECAST HIGHS LOOK ON TARGET AND LIKELY POPS (CHANCE IN THE SE)                
ALSO LOOK DECENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS COOL                  
ENOUGH ALOFT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPE ONCE TEMPS WARM TO AFTERNOON                
MAXES.  ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING SO THEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY            
HEAVY AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH.                                                    
RXR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
WDLY SCT -TSRA CONTINUE ACRS ERN ZONES...HAD A RPT OF TREES DOWN IN             
COOPERSTOWN ARND 11:15 PM. MORE UNSETTLED WX APPEARS ON TAP FOR TDA.            
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOW A VORT MAX OVER INDIANA (SAT LOOP SUGGESTS             
IT IS LIKELY AN MCV) WHICH WILL MOVE EWD TWDS THE FCST AREA LATE                
TDA AND TNGT. MEANWHILE, ENHANCED TROPICAL MSTR WILL BE MOVG NEWD               
INTO THE RGN FROM THE SW WITH SOME WEAK RIPPLES. AREA LEAST LIKELY              
TO SEE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE FAR SE ZONES (WRN CATSKILLS AND                   
POCONOS) WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FCST (REFLECTED              
IN LOWER K INDICES). OTRW XPCT SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS TO FIRE UP LATER              
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVNG WITH RGN FIRMLY IN THE 850                 
THETA-E AXIS. SVR SETUP NOT GREAT BUT A FEW SVR PULSE NOT OUT OF THE            
QUESTION, SIMILIAR TO YDA.                                                      
WILL SHOW A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM SE TO NW, WITH HIGHEST VALUES                 
(LIKELY) ACRS THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK               
VLY. XPCT MOST ACTIVITY TO DSPT LATE EVNG BUT WITH REMANTS OF S/WV              
LINGERING AND FACT THAT SCT CONVECTION IS ONGOING TNGT ACRS THE FCST            
AREA AND UPSTREAM, WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. MORE OF               
THE SAME FOR TMRW AS THE DIRTY BERMUDA HIGH PTRN HANGS TUFF. MDLS               
HINT AT MORE RIPPLES IN THE UPR FLOW WHICH COULD ENHANCE ACTIVITY.              
WILL USE HIGH CHC POPS AND SCT TERMINOLOGY FOR FRI. LOOKS COOLER                
BUT WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER MAV/MET AND WARMER FWC.                  
LONG RANGE (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)                                             
WESTERN ATLANTIC AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL KEEP THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN             
IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN BY THE END OF THE            
FORECAST PERIOD. KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME EXTENDED FORECAST GOING                
WITH CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AROUND THE PERIMETER OF             
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIODS. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE            
MID 80S...THEN COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.                                             
AVIATION (09/00Z -10/00Z)...                                                    
VFR WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE PART OF THE NIGHT...BUT VALLEY FOG                 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND BRING FLIGHT CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/MVFR              
AT KELM/KUCA/KAVP.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH              
GENERALLY VFR...THOUGH A SHRA/TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED...ESPECIALLY AT             
KSYR/KUCA.  -CEMPA                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NY...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE                                               
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                   
1050 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER IND THIS                  
MORNING.  RUC SHOWS THIS AS A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH                 
NORTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS EVEN SHOWS UP AS A TROUGH DOWN IN             
THE 850 MB WIND FIELD.  WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN OUR CURRENT            
WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5            
INCHES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE            
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS                
CONVECTION OVER IA/IND IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OH.  THIS MAY ALSO             
SERVE AS A FEATURE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD               
THROUGH OH.  HAVE BUMPED UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION UP A               
NOTCH...TO 50 PERCENT.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME QPF.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE              
PROBABLY UNDERDONE HOWEVER DUE TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND                         
ABUNDANT/AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                    
ZAFF                                                                            
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION (12Z-12Z)...                                                          
REALLY TOUGH TO TIME CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS            
LITTLE IN WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT...THERE ARE LIKELY SEVERAL LEFTOVER              
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION TODAY. HAVE              
BASICALLY KEPT THE SAME GENERAL IDEA IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH PROB/TEMPO            
TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING. GUIDANCE IS INSISTING ON A LITTLE MORE BR             
OVERNIGHT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASED DWPTS. HAVE HIT BR A               
LITTLE HARDER AFT 06Z TONIGHT. OTEHRWISE VFR CONDITIONS.                        
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)...                                             
THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500              
MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND                   
SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE                      
INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND              
LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                      
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY             
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN               
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED                
STATES THIS MORNING.                                                            
SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND                
EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA.  SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL             
LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA.                      
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY               
CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60            
PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                   
I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4                   
PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES.  MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT            
IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY               
AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME              
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP              
LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)...                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA               
HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S.  AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY                
FLOW WL CONT.  TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON             
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.  CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A               
CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND            
P/C SKIES.  WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...MRD                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   oh                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1107 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS                      
CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD ACROSS OK THIS MORNING..AND SRLY LLJ OF 20-               
30 KTS CONTS TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE                  
BOUNDARY TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE I40                  
CORRIDOR IN CENT OK. ADDITIONAL..MAINLY WEAK..TSTORMS ARE LIKELY                
TO PERSIST JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY UNTIL THE LLJ                
WEAKENS/BACKS 17-20Z TIME FRAME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHUD CONT TO                  
PUSH SLOWLY SWD I35 AND EAST..BUT SHUD STALL AND BEGIN TO LIFT                  
BACK NWD AND WEAKEN ACROSS WRN OK. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG TO                    
EXTREME INSTABILITY AXIS TO DEVELOP BACK NWD WITH TIME THIS                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
DRYLINE SHUD MIX EWD TO JUST E OF THE CAPROCK BY MID                            
AFTERNOON..WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTING THE DRYLINE                       
SOMEWHERE INVOF THE ERN OK PANHANDLE OR SW KS. CAP WILL AGAIN BE                
STRONG TODAY..BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO PUNCH A COUPLE OF HOLES                  
FROM WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN PANHANDLES. SINCE INITIATION WILL                  
LIKELY BE TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE OUN CWA..IT MAY TAKE A                   
COUPLE OF HOURS FOR STORMS TO REACH WRN OK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A               
BIT BETTER TODAY..AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY                
THIS SHUD RESULT IN SUPERCELLS..GIVEN SUSTAINED STORMS. WEAK MID-               
LEVEL STORM RELATIVE FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HP STORMS WITH                  
TIME WITH A GIANT HAIL/WIND THREAT. ANOTHER MCS THEN EXPECTED TO                
MOVE EWD OVERNIGHT INTO OK. UPDATES ALREADY AVAILABLE.                          
 MILLER                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 423 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005)                          
DISCUSSION...                                                                   
THE WESTERN EDGE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MOVED LITTLE TONIGHT                    
CURRENTLY NEAR GREAT BAND AND PRATT KANSAS SUGGESTING A BALANCE HAS             
BEEN REACHED AMONG INFLOW/OUTFLOW/STRENGTH OF CAP. FARTHER EAST...              
WHERE THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER...CONVECTION HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE                 
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY OFFER ONLY LITTLE INSIGHT              
INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL            
SHORTCOMINGS AND POOR DATA INITIALIZATION DOMINATE THEIR FORECASTS.             
THE NAM MAINTAINS A CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM/MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERIC              
PROFILE 12-00Z THAN THE OTHER MODELS RESULTING IN BIG CAPES/LOW CIN             
WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN ITS PERSISTENCE ON THE MCS CONTINUING                       
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONGER CAP. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR                   
CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE MCS HAS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF             
DOING THIS. RATHER...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE SOUTHWARD               
PROGRESS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AT              
THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY EAST OF A             
LINE FROM MEDFORD TO GUTHRIE AND HOLDENVILLE WITH THE GUST FRONT                
MAKING IT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING                
LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS WILL RESULT IN                
LOWER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS OVER            
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE ORIGINATING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR A             
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.             
LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL RELY MOSTLY ON IF AND HOW MANY               
STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS                      
PANHANDLES AND ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY                   
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES POPS WILL RANGE              
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.                                                          
THE DRYLINE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR POSSIBLE              
CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS            
CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND               
NORTH WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHS WILL BE MOST FELT.                       
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
958 AM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
AREA BETWEEN ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND CENTRAL GULF UPPER TROUGH                 
...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AT SURFACE AERA ON W SIDE OF              
ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH A LIGHT SSE WIND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS                 
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHLLS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED                
CLOUD COVER GRIDS UP CONSIDERABLY. SOME BREAKS NOTED EVEN IN THIS               
CLOUD BELT...AND EXPECT BREAKS TO INCREASE AS WEAK MIXING OCCURS.               
TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FORECAST AND GUIDANCE IN MTS...MAYBE A              
DEGREE LOW GA/SC FOOTHILLS...AND ABOUT TWO DEGREES WARM I-77 AND                
I-40 IN NC. ADJUSTED MAX TEMPERATURES IN THOSE DIRECTIONS. DEW                  
POINTS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST...AND USED NEW                      
ADJUSTED MAV GUIDANCE TO CAPTURE THIS TREND.                                    
MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS TODAY. MORNING POPS AGREE WELL WITH RADAR               
TRENDS...FAVORING BETTER POPS SW OVER NE. BY NOON POPS FAVOR                    
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN CLOUDS BREAKS. BY                   
AFTERNOON BLUE RIDGE AND PIEDMONT FAVORED IN UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND              
BETTER INSATBILITY...WITH RELATIVE RAIN SHADOW ALONG TN LINE.                   
INSTATBILITY MORE LIMITED THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH TALL/SKINNY                  
CAPE...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE EXCESSIVE RAIN IN SLOWLY/UPSLOPE                
MOVING CONVECTION.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 1010 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                             
SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D IN A WANING MODE AT                          
PRESENT...WITH DENSE COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND                
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...NEW CELLS DEVELOPING              
IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. KFFC 88-D              
SHOWS MULTIPLE CELLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SHIFTING SLOWLY                    
TOWARD OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS              
EVENING INDICATES A WEAK WIND SHIFT BETWEEN KFFC AND KBMX RAOB                  
SITES...IMPLYING PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE.                          
MEANWHILE...KGSP 88-D VELOCITY AZIMUTH DISPLAY SHOWS A WEAK                     
UPSLOPE COMPONENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF                         
HOURS...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN THE NEW PROLIFERATION OF SMALL CELLS                
IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST                
GEORGIA. BOTH RUC AND LATEST 12KM NAM SEEM TO BELIEVE THE                       
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENOUGH WITH OUR MOIST...UNSTABLE               
AIRMASS TO KEEP FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MOST FAVORED               
UPSLOPE AREAS WITHIN OUR CWFA BORDER OVERNIGHT.                                 
FOR THE UPDATE...WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THE               
TWO NORTHERN-MOST FOOTHILL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES AND THE TWO              
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT ZONES (ALEXANDER/CATAWBA); THESE ARE LOCATIONS             
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION COVERING              
THE FOOTHILLS AT PRESENT AS IT SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST                
ON THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL FEATURE 50 POPS FOR THE REST OF THE              
MOUNTAINS...IREDELL/MECKLENBURG AND THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND                  
PIEDMONT...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND              
FINALLY ALL OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF                   
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...IN ANTICIPATION THAT WEAK BUT SEVERAL                  
SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THOSE                    
LOCATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN INDICATED AS 40 PERCENT FOR ALL OTHER                 
LOCATIONS...INCLUDING OUR EASTERN MOST FOUR ADJACENT TO THE                     
RALEIGH FORECAST OFFICE...AND FOR CENTRAL UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA                
FROM GREENVILLE AND PICKENS MOUNTAINS...SOUTH TO LAURENS AND GREENWOOD.         
NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND NOT                  
MUCH LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MERCURY WILL VARY MUCH FROM WHAT                       
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. MOST LOCATIONS GOT RAINFALL EARLIER                       
TODAY...AND AS SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE                       
TONIGHT...SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME FAIRLY DENSE AND SO WILL                   
ADVERTISE.                                                                      
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                          
(ISSUED 309 PM EDT WED JUN 8 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...                                        
WEAK SHORT WAVE OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT              
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORT               
WAVE...HIGH TERRAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PLAY AS THE MAIN            
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAPES               
ACROSS THE CWA RANGE FROM 1K OVER THE MTNS TO 2500 J/KG EAST WITH               
NORTHWARD STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS. WITH PW/S > 1.5" AND K-INDEX              
IN THE L30S COMBINED WITH THE SLOW PROPAGATION...EXPECT THAT                    
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. ISO MARGINAL HAIL               
EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MODERATE CAPE                      
AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...ICE GROWTH REGIONS ARE HIGH AND WBZ IS > 13K               
FEET. WILL FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THE REST OF                 
TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                              
FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING SEA BREEZE MOISTURE ONCE                 
AGAIN INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF MIDLANDS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNRISE            
THU. ALSO...CONTINUED FLOW MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER               
TONIGHT AIDED BY UPSLOPE LIFT. WILL KEEP SCT POPS GOING UNTIL 10Z               
TONIGHT. LOW DWPT DEPRESSIONS ON THE NAM LATE TONIGHT WILL SIGNAL               
ANOTHER FOG/STRATUS SITUATION. EXPECT THAT THE LOWEST VIS/CEILINGS              
WILL REMAIN EAST...WILL WORD PATCHY FOG AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY             
SKY.                                                                            
THU THROUGH SATURDAY...PATTERN REMAINS...WHILE ATLANTIC MOISTURE                
CONTINUES TO THICKEN OVER THE CWA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING AN                
ENHANCED BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE              
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS...WITH MOST OF THE FA UNDER LIKELY POPS.                    
ATMOSPHERE MAY DRY A BIT ON SATURDAY AS A TROPICAL LOW APPROACHES               
THE MS DELTA...THIS LOW COULD BECOME T.S. ARLENE. EXPECT THAT SAT               
HIGHS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM FRI AND KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE.            
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE STARTS OUT JUST TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN                
RETROGRADES OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY. RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY BEFORE            
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE             
SUNDAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THRU WITH               
SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL                   
HEATING WILL KEEP CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY BETTER                
OVER THE MTNS...UNTIL THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. STILL HAVE CHC             
POP WED...BUT MORE OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL TIME FRAME WITH THE FRONT.            
OPERATIONAL MEX HIGHS HAVE COME BACK TOWARD ITS PREVIOUS                        
NUMBERS...MORE IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. DID GO TOWARD THE HIGHER OF             
THE OPERATIONAL TEMPS OR ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH               
ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GOING FCST.                                             
AVIATION...                                                                     
ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWFA. HAVE VCTS ALL                        
SITES...WITH SHORT TEMPOS FOR TSRA AT THE START OF THE TAFS WHERE               
THUNDER IS IMMINENT. WILL AMEND FOR NEW/ADDITIONAL CELLS AS                     
NECESSARY. MDLS WERE OVERDONE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS LAST NIGHT...AND             
EXPECT THEY ARE AGAIN TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT LOW LEVEL                   
MOISTURE AND WEAK SLY FLOW...HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS             
REMAIN HIGH. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE KEEPING VCTS THROUGH MUCH OF              
THE EVENING...THEN BRINGING IN MVFR FOG. DID TEMPO SOME IFR FOG AT              
KHKY AND IFR FOG/MVFR CIGS AT KAVL TOWARD DAYBREAK...IN LINE WITH               
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY SHOULD KEEP SITES FROM             
SOCKING IN...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY. TEMPOED IN SOME               
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AFTER SUNRISE AT LOCATIONS WHERE THEY OCCURRED THIS             
MORNING.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...JAT                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL                                  
245 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS...                                        
FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION                   
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                  
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS HAS TAKEN SOME TIME TO RECOVER AFTER THE PASSAGE             
OF YESTERDAYS MCS AND ACARS/RUC DATA STILL INDICATING FAIR AMOUNT OF            
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 19Z. INTERESTING               
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING MCV               
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. TO THIS                            
POINT...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING JUST SOME MID LEVEL ECHOES             
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MCV CENTER ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR                 
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND                
INTO EARLY EVENING IF ANY WEAK FORCING ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE             
MCV WILL INTERACT WITH LAKE BREEZE. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THIS TO                 
MAINLY BE THE FOCUS NORTH OF THE CWA WHERE SERLY LAKE BREEZE WILL               
PUSH INLAND TO A GREATER EXTENT. OTHERWISE...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE               
POPS FOR TSRA WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING TOWARD RFD AREA             
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE MCV. PROFILER/ACARS DATA SHOWING SOME                
ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV BUT SOME                  
QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVE THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THIS SHEAR            
PROFILE WOULD BE FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.                       
FOCUS AGAIN LATER TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE AREA.                   
ANOTHER NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD SET UP FAIRLY ACTIVE NIGHT AGAIN IN THE            
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH ANOTHER MORE POTENT SHORT             
WAVE SHOULD GET THINGS ACTIVE AGAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO              
WATCH AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT               
MAXES FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT            
WITH NO CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM EVIDENT AT THIS TIME WILL JUST KEEP             
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER               
APPEARS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE             
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE               
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE GULF WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR TO                
WATCH FOR SATURDAY. PERHAPS A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN STORE             
FOR SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF MORE POTENT                
UPPER LEVEL WAVE. MUCH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION            
OF THIS WAVE FOR MON-WED. LATEST GFS RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THIS                 
TROUGH WITH NCEP ENSEMBLE MEANS EVEN SLOWER. THUS...WILL GO FOR                 
TEMPS A TAD WARMER FOR TUESDAY WITH SLOWER FROPA. OTHERWISE...DID               
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THIS PACKAGE.               
.AVIATION...                                                                    
IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR                    
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS VERY WARM AND HUMID BUT                     
THERE IS NO FOCUS. THE LAKE BREEZE IS STILL CLOSE TO THE SHORE                  
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE IS A CIRCULATION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA THAT               
CAN BE SEEN WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. A LINE OF WELL DEVELOP CLOUDS             
IS ALSO SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. IF THESE DEVELOP INTO                    
SHOWERS LATER THEY MAY MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE TAFS. WILL LEAVE THE               
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL ADD A LITTLE                    
EFFECT OF THE LAKE BREEZE TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH FORECAST WIND 150 AT ORD AND MDW AND 030 FOR GYY.                          
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.IL...NONE.                                                                     
.IN...NONE.                                                                     
.LK MI...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV                                                
1105 AM PDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
AIR MASS HAS EVOLVED TO A CONVECTIVE REGIME THIS MORNING WITH                   
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL                 
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND                
VERY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S FROM THE 12Z RENO                    
SOUNDING HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXCEEDED. LAPS DATA AT 17Z INDICATED CAPE            
BETWEEN 300-600 WITH NO CIN AND LI NEAR OR BELOW ZERO. THE 12Z MODEL            
DATA VARIES ON INSTBY WITH THE NAM AND RUC BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE                
WITH LI VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND -2 WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE LI VALUES               
BETWEEN 0 AND +1. WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH             
LATER TODAY AND THE CAPE PROFILE IS THIN WITH SOME CAPPING BETWEEN              
500 AND 400 MB...DAYTIME HEATING AND EVENTUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY                  
INTERACTIONS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING                    
STRIKES. AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AT THIS TIME INCLUDING MINERAL             
AND SOUTHERN MONO COUNTIES...THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN...AND FAR                   
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY WOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME CB                
BUILDUPS...AND THESE ZONES WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS THRU THIS                
AFTERNOON IN A FORECAST UPDATE TO BE SENT SHORTLY. MJD                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO FALL FROM THE TAHOE AREA NORTH AND                         
EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED. NEXT SHORT WAVE                   
DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH                
THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TURN EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SRN CA/SRN NV            
LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERY PRECIP               
OVER THE SIERRA AND WRN NV THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER HEAVIEST            
PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER COASTAL AND CENTRAL CA THIS MORNING...AND               
WILL MOVE INTO MONO COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH SNOW LEVELS               
THIS MORNING...ABOVE 8000 FEET...MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY IN PRECIP               
TODAY. TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH NV BY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER               
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE SIERRA AND WRN NV FOR FRIDAY.             
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW                  
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALSO HAVE              
120KT JET CARVING OUT THE BACK OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COASTAL CA             
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS NV ON SATURDAY. JET DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO            
INCREASE PRECIP AND INSTABILITY. ADDED ONLY SHOWERS FOR THE TIME                
BEING FROM TAHOE AND RENO NORTH...BUT STABILITY WILL NEED TO BE                 
WATCHED ON FRIDAY FOR ADDITION OF TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS             
WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE              
MEETING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL             
STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY UNDER TROUGHINESS AND CLOUDS               
AND SHOWERS...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND                 
SATURDAY. BENINATO                                                              
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...                                        
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR DRIER WEATHER             
AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MODELS AGREE ON A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE                
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF                 
ALASKA FOR WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW MON AND TUES. AS A RESULT...HAVE                 
WARMED TEMPS TO NEAR 90 IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS WITH 70S TO NEAR 80              
IN THE SIERRA. WITH THE WARM TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE                   
SOUTHERN ZONES THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS              
IN THE MONO-MINERAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TUES. HOWEVER...WILL NOT                   
MENTION AT THIS TIME. ON WED...GFS/EURO BRING NEXT TROUGH CLOSER TO             
THE COAST WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. WILL                  
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND TEMPS BEGINNING TO TREND DOWN               
WITH NO PRECIP. WALLMANN                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
STILL A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AS FINAL SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST                     
CALIFORNIA MOVES SOUTHEAST. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE            
BUT MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE                    
THROUGH. EXPECT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z...WITH VFR            
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTERWARD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE KTRK                   
TONIGHT WHERE FOG WILL LIKELY FORM DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL                    
MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS. WALLMANN                                        
&&                                                                              
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.NV...FLOOD WARNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE FOR THE HUMBOLDT RIVER                 
      ABOVE RYE PATCH RESERVOIR...NVZ004.                                       
.CA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nv                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO                                         
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                   
135 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005                                                       
.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...                                                          
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH               
22Z...THEN DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS REFLECTED             
IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE WITH TEMPO GROUPS FROM 18Z-22Z. EXPECT               
SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE                
SLIGHTLY. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS                      
DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS                       
DEVELOPING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER IND THIS                  
MORNING.  RUC SHOWS THIS AS A SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH                 
NORTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS EVEN SHOWS UP AS A TROUGH DOWN IN             
THE 850 MB WIND FIELD.  WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING IN OUR CURRENT            
WARM AIRMASS ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5            
INCHES...THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE            
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  ALSO...BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAYS                
CONVECTION OVER IA/IND IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OH.  THIS MAY ALSO             
SERVE AS A FEATURE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD               
THROUGH OH.  HAVE BUMPED UP THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION UP A               
NOTCH...TO 50 PERCENT.  HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME QPF.  QPF AMOUNTS ARE              
PROBABLY UNDERDONE HOWEVER DUE TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND                         
ABUNDANT/AVAILABLE MOISTURE.                                                    
ZAFF                                                                            
&&                                                                              
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...                                                  
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THRU FRI NGT)...                                             
THE COMBINATION OF PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...NUMEROUS WEAK 500              
MB SHORTWAVES...WARM TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TIME HEATING...AND                   
SCATTERED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS SUFFICIENT TO MEET ALL THE                      
INGREDIENTS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS (INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...AND              
LIFTING MECHANISM) OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                      
BERMUDA HIGH WILL KEEP FLOW DIRECTLY OUT OF THE GULF TO CONTINUALLY             
FEED MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN               
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED                
STATES THIS MORNING.                                                            
SPC OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 5 PERCENT FOR HAIL AND WIND                
EVENTS OCCURRING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS ACROSS             
THE FORECAST AREA.  SO...AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT WILL             
LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN PRODUCING SEVERE CRITERIA.                      
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIKELY               
CAUSE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL STICK WITH THE 60            
PERCENT OR SO CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.                                   
I MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4                   
PERIODS BY RAISING THEM A COUPLE DEGREES.  MODELS ARE ALL CONSISTENT            
IN CONTINUING THE WARMTH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY STEADY               
AROUND 18 DEGREES C THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  I AM EXPECTING DAY TIME              
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TODAY AND FRIDAY AND KEEP              
LOW TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (SAT THRU WED)...                                                    
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BERMUDA               
HIGH RMNS OVER THE SERN U.S.  AS A RESULT...A WARM AND MOIST SLY                
FLOW WL CONT.  TEMPS WL BE MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S THRU MON             
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON SUN.  CDFNT WL FINALLY BRING A               
CHANGE IN THE WX ON TUE AFT AND EVENING.  UNTIL THEN...CHC WORDG AND            
P/C SKIES.  WL DRY FOR DRY WX ON WED.                                           
&&                                                                              
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.OH...NONE.                                                                     
.PA...NONE.                                                                     
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY                                                           
LONG TERM...KUBINA                                                              
AVIATION...WFO BUF                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   oh