AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
915 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.UPDATED...                                                                     
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR               
ADJUSTMENT PLANNED TO TEMPS AND WINDS.                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS FORECAST...                                                           
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EASTERLY FLOW OVER               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL STRENGTH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WEAK WAVES                  
MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.              
GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY NOTED.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COOLER NORMAL VALUES                 
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN NORMAL.              
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF                
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES                 
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND GREAT LAKES AREA ON                    
THURSDAY. GFS INDICATING SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT                    
WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY                 
THURSDAY... HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NORTH OF               
AREA ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR IS SLOW TO PUSH INTO FORECAST AREA AND              
WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES DAY 6 AND 7 AS COLDEST AIR                  
REMAINS NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERALL PATTERN OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER              
AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH TROPICAL LOW               
EASTERN GULF/CUBA AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PATTERN FORECAST               
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE TROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT WEST ON THE                 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING THE WEEK...A FEEDER BAND              
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.             
AT THIS POINT...THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE                
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE.           
CEILINGS...VERY GOOD CU/TCU FIELD OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP             
EASTERLY/TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND                 
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE ATL AREA...WITH ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF MCN. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE LEFT                
OVER THE AREA FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.                 
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUD                       
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AS THEY HAVE BEEN. GFS AND RUC NOT REALLY            
ADVERTISING DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...HOWEVER ETA               
IS. MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN                
MVFR AT WORST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BEST              
BE HANDLED VIA A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY.                         
VISIBILITY...WITH LESS LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED                                  
OVERNIGHT...REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.            
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION            
OF MCN...WHERE THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR A VV001 1/4SM FG                       
SITUATION...BUT NOT LIKELY.                                                     
WX...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA S CENTRAL/SE PORTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER                
SUNSET. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AGAIN FAR S MONDAY...BUT THREAT APPEARS             
LESS THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO WX EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.           
WINDS...GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN              
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN QUITE A BIT              
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH 10-15KTS AND GUSTS TO 20KTS OR BETTER.              
MODELS SUPPORT WINDS JUST AS STRONG OR STRONGER MONDAY...THUS WILL              
BE INTRODUCING GUST AT MANY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING WIND                 
DIRECTION AROUND 090 WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS GUST TO 18KTS                         
DAYTIME...5-8KTS AT NIGHT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         65  82  63  80 /   5   5  10  10                                
ATHENS          64  82  63  80 /   5   5  10  10                                
GAINESVILLE     62  82  62  82 /   5   5  10  10                                
ROME            64  88  61  84 /   5   5   5   5                                
COLUMBUS        68  86  67  84 /  10   5  10  10                                
MACON           68  85  64  83 /  10  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/19/49                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
545 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EASTERLY FLOW OVER               
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SHORT TERM PERIODS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE                 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL STRENGTH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD                   
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE AS WEAK WAVES                  
MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING.              
GOOD MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY                  
SKIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY NOTED.                     
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COOLER NORMAL VALUES                 
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN NORMAL.              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF                
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NORTH OF FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES                 
ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND GREAT LAKES AREA ON                    
THURSDAY. GFS INDICATING SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT                    
WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY                 
THURSDAY... HOWEVER WITH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NORTH OF               
AREA ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS                     
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR IS SLOW TO PUSH INTO FORECAST AREA AND              
WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES DAY 6 AND 7 AS COLDEST AIR                  
REMAINS NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
OVERALL PATTERN OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER              
AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH TROPICAL LOW               
EASTERN GULF/CUBA AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PATTERN FORECAST               
THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE TROPICAL LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT WEST ON THE                 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH DURING THE WEEK...A FEEDER BAND              
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.             
AT THIS POINT...THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE                
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN...LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE.           
CEILINGS...VERY GOOD CU/TCU FIELD OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP             
EASTERLY/TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND                 
MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN THE ATL AREA...WITH ISOLATED             
THUNDERSTORMS SE OF MCN. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE LEFT                
OVER THE AREA FROM CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.                 
CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUD                       
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY MORNING AS THEY HAVE BEEN. GFS AND RUC NOT REALLY            
ADVERTISING DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS...HOWEVER ETA               
IS. MOST AREAS SHOULD HAVE VFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...THEN                
MVFR AT WORST FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BEST              
BE HANDLED VIA A TEMPO GROUP GIVEN CURRENT UNCERTAINTY.                         
VISIBILITY...WITH LESS LOW CLOUDINESS EXPECTED                                  
OVERNIGHT...REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.            
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR AT WORST...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION            
OF MCN...WHERE THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR A VV001 1/4SM FG                       
SITUATION...BUT NOT LIKELY.                                                     
WX...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA S CENTRAL/SE PORTION SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER                
SUNSET. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AGAIN FAR S MONDAY...BUT THREAT APPEARS             
LESS THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...NO WX EXPECTED THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.           
WINDS...GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN...EXPECT EASTERLY FLOW TO REMAIN IN              
PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN QUITE A BIT              
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED WITH 10-15KTS AND GUSTS TO 20KTS OR BETTER.              
MODELS SUPPORT WINDS JUST AS STRONG OR STRONGER MONDAY...THUS WILL              
BE INTRODUCING GUST AT MANY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING WIND                 
DIRECTION AROUND 090 WITH SPEEDS 10-15KTS GUST TO 18KTS                         
DAYTIME...5-8KTS AT NIGHT.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
ATLANTA         65  82  63  80 /   5   5  10  10                                
ATHENS          64  82  63  80 /   5   5  10  10                                
GAINESVILLE     62  82  62  82 /   5   5  10  10                                
ROME            64  88  61  84 /   5   5   5   5                                
COLUMBUS        68  86  67  84 /  10   5  10  10                                
MACON           68  85  64  83 /  10  20  10  10                                
&&                                                                              
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
12/19                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
1015 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDING INTO NE WISCONSIN ATTM PER                  
PROFILERS TO THE WEST...MAIN ACTION HAD BEEN WITH VORT MAX AT BASE              
OF THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...ACTION               
HAS PICKED UP ALONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE LAST HOUR. ELEVATED              
WARM/MOISTURE FRONT AROUND 925MB SEEN MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NE                  
WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN TO SRN LWR MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE              
FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS LIVED/DEVELOPED IN JUICY               
AIR MASS...AS THETA-E RUNNING IN THE 328-336K. ELEVATED INSTABILITY             
DECENT TOO...WITH 100MB MLCAPE OF 500-1500J/KG AND LI'S OF -1C TO               
-2C. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY STREAMED UP LAKE MICHIGAN              
WITH SFC OBS INDICATING HAZE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE                    
MICHIGAN FROM PLN TO MBL...AND ACROSS LAND AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE              
CWA (SFC TD BOUNDARY RESIDES).                                                  
AREA TAMDAR AND 00Z APX SOUNDINGS REFLECTING AIR MASS IS INITIALLY              
WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...BUT WITH WARM FRONT SURGING INTO            
NRN MICHIGAN TONIGHT...925MB TD'S INCREASE TO +17C TO +18C VIA                  
30-35KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. MOISTENING THE LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE            
IS A QUICK WAY TO DECREASE THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY...WHICH            
FOR TONIGHT...RESULTS IN UP TO 1500 J/KG PER MODIFICATION OF THE                
LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH ONLY 10-20J/KG OF CAP. HARD TO LOCATE A             
FOCUSING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL                
AFFECT THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA...WHERE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY             
PRECIP RESIDES. PLUS...SHOULD HAVE HELP WITH AXIS/NOSE OF 40KT LLJ              
AND GREATEST H8-H5 -DIVQ. WILL LEAVE POP FORECAST THE WAY IT IS.                
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST DATA COMING IN SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL            
NOT BE AS HIGH...AND IT IS HARD TO LOCATE A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY AS A             
FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MAY EVEN BE OVERDONE...BUT                  
CANNOT ARGUE IT WITH SUCH LITTLE CINH. UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW                
PRECIP TO BEGIN FROM NRN LAKE MICHIGAN/TRAVERSE CITY REGION AROUND              
MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL PROPAGATE NE THROUGH THE CWA. AS FAR AS SEVERE            
GOES...OVERALL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. BULK SHEAR VALUES                
25KTS OR LESS DOES NOT SUPPORT GOOD STORM ORGANIZATION...SEVERE                 
THREAT IS MINIMAL AT BEST.                                                      
ONGOING FORECAST SEEMINGLY IN LINE AND WILL ONLY BE MAKING                      
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP GRIDS. WILL BE A WARM NIGHT WITH READINGS IN            
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.                                                     
MARINE...STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES TONIGHT WITH LAKE SFC T'S             
RUNNING +16C TO 20C AND 950MB TEMPS RISING TO 21C. THIS SHOULD                  
PROHIBIT ALL OF THE 35KTS AT 950MB FROM REACHING THE SFC. CAN SEE AS            
MUCH AS 15-25KTS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN/WHITEFISH POINT WITH LARGE FETCH            
BRINGING 3-6 FOOT WAVES INTO LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT               
ADVISORIES WHERE THEY ARE...AND WATCH OTHER MARINE/LAND OBS FOR                 
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.  SMD                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                            
DISCUSSION...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW WAS             
LIFTING NE THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS                       
FEATURE...SURFACE DEWPOINT BOUNDARY...REPRESENTING A TRANSITION FROM            
DEWPOINTS MID 50S/LOWER 60S TO DEWPOINTS 65-70F...WAS PUSHING INTO              
THE S/SW LAKES. PER LIGHTNING DATA...CONVECTION WAS CONCENTRATED                
WITHIN THE UPPER LOW COLD POOL...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE                 
SPREADING N/NE ALONG/SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY.                                 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH TUESDAY INCLUDE POPS...                       
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND MARINE WINDS.                                        
WITH MINOR DISAGREEMENT REGARDING DETAILS...12Z GUIDANCE STRONGLY               
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA              
WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED CAPES (FROM 950-900 MB                     
500-1000 J/KG PER GFS/1000-1500 J/KG PER NAM) AND UPSTREAM TRENDS               
JUSTIFYING A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN DRY AIRMASS STILL IN               
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND TIMING UPSTREAM FEATURES...WILL EXTEND              
DRY FORECAST UNTIL 2Z. THEN...WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL                         
CONVERGENCE/DEEP LAYER ASCENT/STRONGEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY                    
COINCIDE...ACROSS N/W COUNTIES...12Z GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM TRENDS               
FAVOR RAISING POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY IN THIS PACKAGE...AND                     
CATEGORICAL POPS MAY EVEN BE NEEDED IN LATER PACKAGES. ACROSS E/SE              
COUNTIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF BEST FORCING/BEST ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY...CONFIDENCE REGARDING PRECIP COVERAGE IS REDUCED...WITH            
THE 12Z NAM/UKMET PUSHING MOST PRECIP NORTH...WHILE THE GFS TURNS               
THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST...WITH ASSOCIATED ASCENT/CONVECTION                   
SPREADING EAST ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-45 KNOT 850 MB JET...BACKING              
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM.             
WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE...NOT SURE IF THE CORE OF THE                  
SHORTWAVE WILL TURN SO FAR TO THE EAST GIVEN THE RIDGE POSITION OVER            
THE EASTERN US. THUS...WILL CONTINUE 40-50% POPS ACROSS E/SE                    
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND WILL LEAVE POPS ADJUSTMENTS THERE...IF                 
ANY...TO LATER SHIFTS.                                                          
AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP SCENARIO SPILLS INTO THE 12Z-14Z TIME                
FRAME...WILL TAPER POPS TO CHANCE ALL AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.              
THEN...TRICKY FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS GFS DEPICTS STRONGER               
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE NAM                
SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ACROSS                 
NORTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARY/ASSOCIATED               
VORT AXIS TO THE N/NW OF REGION AND POOLING OF LOW LEVEL                        
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE               
NAM MAY BE PUSHING THESE FEATURES A BIT TOO FAR TO THE S/SE                     
(GFS/UKMET PLACE FEATURES FARTHER NORTH)...BECAUSE STRONGER DEEP                
LAYER SHEAR/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL N/NW OF THE FORECAST               
AREA AND BECAUSE OF THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST...WILL NOT YET ADD ANY             
POPS TO THE FORECAST AFTER 18Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT A HIGH             
CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS ARE NEEDED             
IN LATER FORECASTS.                                                             
ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS...MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN STABLE THOUGH               
MONDAY...SO 35-45 KNOT 950 MB WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ALOFT.                        
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOCAL ENHANCEMENT AND                 
HIGHER WAVES AT THE END OF THE FETCH ACROSS N LAKE MICHIGAN ALL                 
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR WHITEFISH BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN              
NEARSHORE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.                                         
ROWLEY                                                                          
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE TOMORROW...              
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT               
WITH DRY WEATHER STILL EXPECTED. THEN...NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS             
WITH FRONT GRADUALLY LAYING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND                  
PRECIP CHANCES ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM/GFS80 DEVELOP BAND OF                
STRONG H8-H5 LAYER F-FGEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN                      
ONTARIO... AND RESULTANT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THE NRN            
GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIFFER OVER POSITION OF THE UPPER              
RIDGE AND SFC FRONT WITH THE ETA SAGGING THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD               
PRECIP DOWN INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. BUT...PREFER THE                
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK OF THE GFS (ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF            
AND UKMET) WHICH KEEPS HEIGHTS HIGHER ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH               
TUESDAY AND THE FRONT/RAINFALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH                   
TUESDAY (FROPA EXPECTED WED...SEE BELOW). IT'S CLOSE...AND ONE CAN              
MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR INTRODUCING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN               
EASTERN UPPER MI BOTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BUT PREVIOUS DRY               
FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS SAME MORE AMPLIFIED PREMISE AND WILL THUS             
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY (AND COLLABORATION WITH MQT) AND KEEP THE                   
FORECAST DRY.                                                                   
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY (EXTENDED)...OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF IN                  
DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS MAINTAINING A SOMEWHAT            
PROGRESSIVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AND LONGWAVE TROF POSITION ACROSS               
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN                 
DOMINATED BY GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS/TEMPS EARLY IN THE                  
WEEK...BUT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS WAVE MIGRATING OUT OF THE EPAC LONGWAVE            
TROF AND ACROSS THE NRN CONUS FOR MID WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF             
COOL DOWN AND TASTE OF FALL TO THE STATE.                                       
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND               
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW/COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE FOR                
MIDWEEK. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS TRENDING FASTER...GFS/ECMWF NOW SLOWING            
THINGS DOWN JUST A LITTLE BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATER            
WEDNESDAY AND UPPER WAVE/CORE OF COLDEST AIR THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES            
THU/FRI. BULK OF THE PRECIP APPEARS PRIMARILY POST-FRONTAL AND                  
SUGGESTS GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY                  
NIGHT. BUT...IT'S NOT THE FORECAST THAT GOES WRONG IT'S THE                     
TIMING...AND TOUGH TO HANG YOUR HAT ON TIMING 3 DAYS OUT WHICH IS               
WHY WE USUALLY DO NOT GO POPS > CHANCE IN LATER PERIODS. BUT GIVEN              
THE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ECMWF/GFS/ETA WITH REGARD TO FROPA            
WILL TREND HIGHEST POPS FORWARD INTO THE WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT                    
TIMEFRAME. CORE OF COLDEST AIR SLIPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY              
AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT AND DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING             
THE DAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH FORECASTING A FAIRLY COLD SHOT OF AIR WITH              
THE UPPER TROF DIPPING 850 MB TEMPS TO THE -4C TO -8C RANGE OVER THE            
NRN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AWAY             
FROM THE LAKES (NEED TO GET 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -5C OR COLDER THIS             
TIME OF YEAR TO EVEN THINK ABOUT SNOW). BUT AT THE SAME TIME VERY               
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO ONTARIO VEERING WINDS               
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE NORTH FLOW REGIME. KEEP IN MIND THAT MEDIUM                 
RANGE MODELS TEND TO OVER DO MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR IN LATER                     
PERIODS...BUT IF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS ARE CLOSE UPPER MICHIGAN                 
(MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPPER) MAY SEE SOME             
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FLOW REGIME WILL LIMIT               
PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT TO JUST THE WESTERN PORTION OF                    
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES.                                                             
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH              
THE REGION AND DOMINATES DURING THIS TIME WITH CORE OF COLD AIR                 
SLIDING OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPS ONCE AGAIN REBOUNDING.                        
ADAM                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
945 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
00Z RAOBS/WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT HI AMPLITUDE              
UPR RDG STRETCHING FM TX TO NEW ENGLAND. DEEP TROF NOTED OFF THE W              
COAST...AND UPR GRT LKS IN WARM SW FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES.                
SHRTWV EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SW FLOW ALF PRESENT OVER WI THIS EVNG...            
AND THIS SYS CAUSING SOME SHRA/TSRA FM ARND MNM SE INTO SW LWR MI               
WHERE 12HR MOISTENING HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL (12Z PWAT AT GRB WAS 1.03            
INCHES...00Z PWAT UP TO 1.55 INCHES). BUT MUCH OF FA STILL UNDER THE            
DOMINATION OF DRIER/MORE STABLE AIRMASS DEPICTED ON THE 00Z APX                 
SDNG/TAMDAR SDNG FM SAW. BUT BOTH THESE SDNGS SHOW HI LLVL RH BLO               
SUBSIDENCE INVRN BTWN H85-9...AND SFC DWPTS HAVE INCRSD INTO THE 60             
TO 65 RANGE ACRS MUCH OF THE FA WITH 30-45KT SLY WINDS NOTED ON THE             
MQT VWP FM 2K FT-5K FT MSL. SO EVEN THOUGH DEEP CLD IS ABSENT...                
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL COOLING AND UPSLOPE SSE FLOW AHEAD OF SHRTWV             
HAVE CAUSED SOME LO CLD TO DVLP OVER THE CNTRL AND E DOWNWIND OF LK             
MI AS SHOWN ON VISFOG STLT IMAGERY. BKN SC NOTED OVER MUCH OF WI...             
CIGS HGTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE VFR 3K-5K FT RANGE THERE.                        
MAIN FCST CONCERNS TNGT REVOLVE ARND PCPN/CLD/FOG TRENDS AND IMPACT             
OF INCRSG CLD/MSTR ON LO TEMPS. 18Z GFS F6 APPEARS TO HAVE BEST                 
HANDLE ON ONGOING WX...ESPECIALLY HI STABILITY OVER THE FA ATTM...SO            
RELYING ON THIS MODEL MOST HEAVILY FOR UPDATE.                                  
GFS SHOWS WI SHRTWV DRIFTING NEWD TNGT AND INTO ONTARIO BY 12Z MON.             
GFS SHOWS MOST IMPRESSIVE H85 MSTR CNVGC IN AREA WHERE SHRA NOW                 
PRESENT...AND THIS AREA OF BEST MSTR CNVGC FCST TO DRIFT MORE ENEWD             
AS SFC-H85 WINDS PROGGED TO VEER SHARPLY OVERNGT WITH PASSAGE OF                
SHRTWV. SO GOING FCST OF HIER POPS TO THE E APPEARS ON TRACK. WL                
CONT MENTION OF SCT SHRA/A FEW TSRA E OF MQT-IMT. ALTHOUGH                      
TEMPTATION IS THERE TO REMOVE POPS TO THE W ALTOGETHER...INFLUX OF              
MSTR FM THE SW AND ONLY SML CAP ABV INVRN AT H8 IN PRESENCE OF STEEP            
H8-5 LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL SDNG WARRANTS MENTION OF CONTD            
SLGT CHC POPS EVEN TO THE W. OTRW...INCRSG MSTR UNDER INVRN WL ALLOW            
FOR INCSG ST/SC COVG OVERNGT. THIS CLD AND FAIRLY STRG WIND VEERING             
FM S TO WSW WIND SHOULD RESTRICT FOG COVG/VSBY RESTRICTION. BUT WL              
FCST FOG TO EXPAND A BIT TNGT AS GFS SHOWS WIND SPEEDS DCRSG A BIT              
LATE. INCRSG MSTR/CLD AND STEADY WIND WL GREATLY RESTRICT DIURNAL               
TEMP FALL.                                                                      
KC                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
MONDAY...GFS CONSISTENT SHOWING FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT JUST WEST             
OF FCST AREA. WITH 8H THETA-E RDG NEARBY AND SUGGESTION OF ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY             
AFT....KEPT IN SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WRN COUNTIES. FCST SNDGS               
SHOW CAPPING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES SHOULD KEEP THESE ZONES              
DRY. 8H TEMPS OF AROUND 16C SHOULD AGAIN YIELD INLAND HIGHS IN THE              
UPR 70S AND LOW 80S.                                                            
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...12Z GFS SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH 06Z RUN             
STILL SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                 
925-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA SO WILL KEEP GOING            
CHC POPS IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE FOR WRN 1/3 OF CWA.                     
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH              
TIMING OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND               
MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FCST AREA ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED                
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE QUICKLY              
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD A SLOWER                 
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...BELIEVE GFS TIMING LOOKS GOOD NOW. STRONG               
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON                    
WEDNESDAY SO SPREAD LIKELY POPS ACROSS FCST AREA WED AFTERNOON. GFS             
CONSISTENT SHOWING HEAVIEST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS GENERALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT. SO                
HELD OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR ERN COUNTIES UNTIL WED NIGHT. WITH                  
SLOWER TIMING OF FRONT BUMPED UP WED HIGHS MORE INTO 60S AND EVEN               
LOW 70S EAST WITH FCST AREA INITIALLY IN WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW AND             
FRONTAL SYSTEM. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STILL GOOD LOOK LIKE A               
GOOD BET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT               
AND NICE PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET FCST BY MODELS. STRONG CAA                  
BEHIND FRONT WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -6C TO -7C BY              
THU MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL              
PROBABLY MIX WITH SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW NOW NOTED BY MOST OF MODELS THU BUMPED UP POPS TO            
LIKELY NORTH FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND TO 40 PCT FOR SRN COUNTIES.               
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED BY MODELS...EXTENDED MENTION OF SCT                    
SHRA/SHSN INTO THU NIGHT.  MODEL CONSENSUS OF SFC HIGH AND DRIER                
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BLDG IN FOR FRI SO ENDED SHOWERS BY THAT TIME.                   
WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF PATTERN...SLOWER EXIT OF SYSTEM TO EAST              
AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RDGG FROM WEST...HAD TO ALSO DELAY WARMING                
TREND FOR WEEKEND AS GFS NOW SUGGESTS 8H TEMPS NOT TO REBOUND ABOVE             
0C UNTIL SAT. SO LOWERED HIGHS ON FRI TO 50S AND UPR 50S TO LOW 60S             
SAT. HIGHS SUN SHOULD REACH LOW TO MID 60S AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO                  
AROUND 6-7C PER GFS/ECMWF FCST.                                                 
VOSS                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE COVERAGE OF                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL ANTICIPATING A TRANSITION FROM                 
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO ELEVATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE                 
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS DEPICT FAIRLY WELL THE COMBINATION OF                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHORT WAVE SUPPORT THAT IS                     
ONGOING AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND                  
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF THETA-E ADVECTION BELOW 700 MB AND DCVA              
FROM THE WAVE FAVORS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DETROIT                 
FOR NEW SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY                       
MORNING.                                                                        
OUR GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE THEME OF THE UPDATE WILL               
BE TO ADD SOME CONFIDENCE WITH AREAL COVERAGE TERMS RATHER THAN                 
CHANCE TERMS IN THE PRECIP FORECAST AROUND FLINT AND THE TRI                    
CITIES, NOW THAT WE HAVE ACTIVITY ON RADAR. WE'LL ALSO USE THIS                 
UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE OTHER ELEMENTS. THE TEMP FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD BUT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO COME IN NEAR THE WARM END              
OF THE RANGE.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 708 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                          
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONCERNS REGARDING FOG AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT              
AVIATION INTERESTS TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT NOON ON MONDAY.                        
ONGOING STORMS AROUND THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE BEING                  
FORCED BY GOOD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL                  
SUPPORT FROM THE SHORT WAVE OVER WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS. EXPECT                 
THE GENERAL TREND TO BE DOWNWARD ON THIS ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF              
DAYTIME HEATING, WITH A TRANSITION TO ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS               
BY LATE EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TRANSITION                 
FAVORS LOCATIONS NORTH OF DETROIT AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF                  
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION, STEEPER              
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE FILLING WAVE                 
COME TOGETHER.                                                                  
INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND FOG               
TONIGHT. SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE               
AND MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, BUT                   
SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WILL RESULT IN               
AT LEAST AREAS OF MVFR FOG AS THE LONGER NIGHT UNFOLDS.                         
EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT SLOWLY AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH DURING       
THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.        
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                           
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                 
WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHER LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN IN THE               
LOW TO MID 60S. UNLIKE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE MODELS ARE NOT                  
OVERESTIMATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS DE-AMPLIFYING                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REACHES                   
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY MORNING. MAIN FORCING WITH THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NONE-THE-LESS...ENOUGH              
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION/INSTABILITY/TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE             
POPS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TONIGHT.                            
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS                  
TOMORROW...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER WELL INTO THE                
60S. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND             
A LACK OF A TRIGGER...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY INDICATED            
(CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH LI'S OF -3 C OR BETTER)...THE CAPE             
IS SKINNY AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CIN (25-50 J/KG).                   
CU RULES POINTING TO SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND             
925 MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 23 C...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB                
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. KEEP IN MIND...RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE                 
UPPER 80S FOR EARLY OCTOBER.                                                    
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
THE TRANSITION OF THE SEASONS IS DEFINITELY THE CHALLENGE IN THE                
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF               
THE WEEK (INCLUDING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST)                
WILL BE RATHER SUMMER-LIKE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER           
TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON              
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE TREND             
TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND SAID FRONT              
CONTINUES IN THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH BODES WELL FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY.              
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST SHORT OF 80 (A SOLID 15 DEGREE                
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER)...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED            
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE LAST HALF OF            
THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THIS SYSTEM MAY WARRANT AN EVEN                
WARMER FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.                                                   
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.           
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THEN SET UP ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A SLOW               
MODERATION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE FORECAST               
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...AND               
LIKELY WILL NOT IN MANY AREAS. THIS BOUT OF COOL WEATHER WILL BE OF             
A LONGER DURATION THAN LAST WEEKS SYSTEM AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE             
SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
THIS WILL NOT ONLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AOB 60 THURSDAY AND                   
FRIDAY...BUT PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD 30S FRIDAY MORNING...IF NOT INTO            
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH ACTUALLY SETTLES OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE THE               
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. BY THIS TIME...THE EDGE WILL BE              
TAKEN OFF AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED.                        
EVEN WITH SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE FROST MENTION OUT OF              
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. WOULD LIKE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF            
ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH COULD DEFINITELY IMPEDE THE               
DEGREE OF COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE              
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE IFFY FOR FROST             
TO BE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN DEGREE OF TROUBLE THE MODELS HAVE HAD WITH              
THIS TRANSITION SO FAR...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY             
BEFORE DELVING TOO DEEPLY INTO THE FROST POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY IS                
SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS THOUGH.                                
WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER            
WILL TAKE HOLD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE MORE               
THAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND              
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER OF            
HIGH PRESSURE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...BT                                                            
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS                  
TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THROUGH LOWER MIDWEST....CHANCES OF            
SHRA/TSRA MON INTO TUE WITH STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR                 
WEST...THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD PCPN TO AFFECT               
OUR AREA FOR WED INTO THU.                                                      
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW BROAD                
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA WITH SIGNIFICANT             
TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE PAC NW. A SHRTWV AND ASSOC CONVECTION CAN            
BE SEEN MOVING UP FROM LWR MIDWEST AS WELL.                                     
TONIGHT...UPSTREAM RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA STILL SHOW SHOW QUITE A             
BIT OF CONVECTION OVER NRN IL WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FROM LOWER             
MIDWEST. THIS CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY CONVERGENCE/LIFT AT NOSE OF            
A 45KT 850MB JET AS NOTED IN THE PROFILER DATA AND MORE UNSTABLE                
(6.5-7C/KM) 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE                 
SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MORE CONFLUENT                
FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL SUPPORT                
SOME CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF FCST AREA. NOT                
EXPECTING AS GOOD OF A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER WEST ZONES AS 8H               
JET BECOMES MORE ORIENTED TO WSW THROUGH EVENING SO HAVE TRIMMED                
BACK TO SLIGHT CHC OVER WRN ZONES. AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTH OF FCST             
AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO TAPER OFF.                                
MONDAY...GFS CONSISTENT SHOWING FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT JUST WEST             
OF FCST AREA. WITH 8H THETA-E RDG NEARBY AND SUGGESTION OF ANOTHER              
SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY             
AFT....KEPT IN SLGT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA FOR WRN COUNTIES. FCST SNDGS               
SHOW CAPPING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN COUNTIES SHOULD KEEP THESE ZONES              
DRY. 8H TEMPS OF AROUND 16C SHOULD AGAIN YIELD INLAND HIGHS IN THE              
UPR 70S AND LOW 80S.                                                            
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE...12Z GFS SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY WITH 06Z RUN             
STILL SHOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.              
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE NOTED AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND                 
925-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER THE AREA SO WILL KEEP GOING            
CHC POPS IN FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE FOR WRN 1/3 OF CWA.                     
GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH              
TIMING OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND               
MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FCST AREA ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED                
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE QUICKLY              
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER GREAT              
LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON            
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD A SLOWER                 
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...BELIEVE GFS TIMING LOOKS GOOD NOW. STRONG               
FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ON                    
WEDNESDAY SO SPREAD LIKELY POPS ACROSS FCST AREA WED AFTERNOON. GFS             
CONSISTENT SHOWING HEAVIEST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION                
ZONE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS GENERALLY BEHIND COLD FRONT. SO                
HELD OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR ERN COUNTIES UNTIL WED NIGHT. WITH                  
SLOWER TIMING OF FRONT BUMPED UP WED HIGHS MORE INTO 60S AND EVEN               
LOW 70S EAST WITH FCST AREA INITIALLY IN WARM SECTOR OF SFC LOW AND             
FRONTAL SYSTEM. VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS STILL GOOD LOOK LIKE A               
GOOD BET WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THU WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT               
AND NICE PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET FCST BY MODELS. STRONG CAA                  
BEHIND FRONT WITH 8H TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND -6C TO -7C BY              
THU MORNING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL              
PROBABLY MIX WITH SNOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH             
GOOD CYCLONIC FLOW NOW NOTED BY MOST OF MODELS THU BUMPED UP POPS TO            
LIKELY NORTH FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND TO 40 PCT FOR SRN COUNTIES.               
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW NOTED BY MODELS...EXTENDED MENTION OF SCT                    
SHRA/SHSN INTO THU NIGHT.  MODEL CONSENSUS OF SFC HIGH AND DRIER                
AIR/SUBSIDENCE BLDG IN FOR FRI SO ENDED SHOWERS BY THAT TIME.                   
WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF PATTERN...SLOWER EXIT OF SYSTEM TO EAST              
AND SLOWER ARRIVAL OF RDGG FROM WEST...HAD TO ALSO DELAY WARMING                
TREND FOR WEEKEND AS GFS NOW SUGGESTS 8H TEMPS NOT TO REBOUND ABOVE             
0C UNTIL SAT. SO LOWERED HIGHS ON FRI TO 50S AND UPR 50S TO LOW 60S             
SAT. HIGHS SUN SHOULD REACH LOW TO MID 60S AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO                  
AROUND 6-7C PER GFS/ECMWF FCST.                                                 
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOSS                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1210 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS UPDATE IS THE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON            
AND THE ONSET OF THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS.                                         
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER MPX AREA              
MOVING THROUGH A RIDGE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. THIS            
RIDGE IS SHIFTING THE SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY             
THIS EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER                
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE             
A DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE               
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL KEEP               
THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
IS RATHER LIMITED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.                                   
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD COVER SHOULD                 
INCREASE OF THE WESTERN U.P. THE SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE INTO                     
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA USHERING THE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS.                
MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 21Z ALONG WITH THE              
SHORTWAVE. THIS ALSO FAVORS AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE                 
WESTERN U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP WARM AIR              
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING THE            
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE PROJECTED. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL START            
TO INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE DRY                    
CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THUS WILL TWEAK              
SOME OF THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS                     
AFTERNOON ONLY. THE POPS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING OVER THE WEST             
AND SPREAD EAST.                                                                
AS THE SHORTWAVE...INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE WEST...AND ELEVATED               
CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF WISCONSIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE                   
TONIGHT FORECAST STILL COVERS THIS CONDITIONS SATISFACTORILY...SO               
WILL NOT UPDATE THAT AT THIS TIME.                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DLG                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
738 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
GENERALLY LIGHT/THIN MIST/FOG AT KDTW/KDET/KFNT...MOSTLY MVFR                   
VISIBILITY...EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY 14Z. THEREAFTER...SOLIDLY                  
VFR WITH FEW TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS 4K TO 5K FEET TODAY AND               
HIGH TO OCCASIONAL MID CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. BY 08Z HAVE              
CALLED FOR MID CLOUD CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES 5 MILES IN                         
MIST/FOG...AS LOW MOISTURE INCREASE AND EXPECTED LIMITED NIGHTTIME              
RADIATION COMBINE FOR SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BELIEVE THAT               
ANY DYNAMICS FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SYSTEM FROM THE                     
SOUTHWEST WILL BE WEAK AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SAGINAW VALLEY LATE               
TONIGHT...SO HAVE CALLED FOR PROB30 GROUP AT KMBS/KFNT FROM 08Z TO              
12Z FOR 4 MILES IN SHOWERS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 425 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT                
ADVANCES INTO FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT 500 MB...CENTRAL               
PLAINS SYSTEM OPENING UP AND LIFTING INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY              
TODAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING...WITH                   
VORTICITY LOBE MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.                          
850 TO 500 MB MOISTURE SHOWS DRYNESS HOLDING ON UNTIL                           
TONIGHT...INCREASING MAINLY LATE TONIGHT. AT 925 MB...HIGHER RELATIVE           
HUMIDITIES INCHING UP FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AND CONTINUING TONIGHT.              
MOISTURE AT STILL HIGHER LEVELS THAN THIS REACHING THE AREA                     
SOONER...AS SEEN VIA IR IMAGERY. LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE WORKING IN             
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER LEVEL THETA E RIDGE MAINLY INTO FAR            
NORTHWEST.                                                                      
DYNAMICS VERY MODEST AT BEST TO GO ALONG WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE               
TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT SLIGHT AND VERY MODEST 305K                
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TONIGHT...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS                 
LOWERING ONLY TO ABOUT 30 MB WEST LATE...MAINLY AS PER NAM.                     
RUC AND NAM AND GFS SHOW LIFTED INDICES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE                       
TONIGHT...WITH MODEST CAPES ESPECIALLY WEST...ALBEIT CONVECTIVE                 
INHIBITION FAIRLY GOOD MOST OF TONIGHT. 850 TO 700 MB LAPSE RATES               
FAIRLY STEEP OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY NAM OVERDONE HERE WITH TOO HIGH OF            
DEW POINTS. TOTAL TOTALS APPROACH 50 AND K INDICES CLIMB INTO THE               
30S.                                                                            
WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH            
MENTION OF SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. DRY THIS                   
EVENING.                                                                        
MARINE...STRONG THERMAL STABILITY REGIME OVER THE LAKES SHOULD LIMIT            
WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS...AND KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA             
THROUGH TONIGHT.                                                                
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY                                             
ON MONDAY MORNING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING                  
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAVE MICHIGAN UNDER SHORTWAVE                 
RIDGING AND NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WHICH WOULD SUGGEST                    
SUBSIDENCE FROM MID-MORNING ON. MODELS HOWEVER STILL INDICATING                 
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY MAKING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A            
CONCERN INTO THE AFTERNOON. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY OVERDONE WITH                   
RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING 70+ DEWPOINTS INTO THE                   
TRI-CITIES WITH CAPES OF 2500 J/KG. THE GFS IS BETTER WITH DEWPOINTS            
IN THE MID 60S AND 1500 J/KG BUT MAY ALSO BE A BIT OVERDONE. MY                 
FEELING IS THAT WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THIS MUCH LOW                    
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING                 
WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. MODIFIED GFS SOUNDINGS OF 80/62               
YIELD ONLY 400 J/KG OF CAPE WITH WEAK CIN...POSSIBLY THE MOST                   
REALISTIC SOLUTION. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND               
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE MORNING AS THE WAVE IS EXITING                
THE AREA BUT WILL LEAVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY DRY THINKING               
THAT MODELS ARE OVERDONE ON CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.                             
BY MID-WEEK THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY ONTO THE                
WEST COAST WILL BE PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES                 
REGION. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE IN THE LEE OF THE              
ROCKIES AND QUICKLY TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY                   
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED FOR DAYS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE             
SYSTEM...DEPENDING HEAVILY ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH               
THE TROUGH. 18Z/01 AND 00Z/02 GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER THAN                       
PREVIOUS RUNS...BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SE MICHIGAN DURING THE               
EVENING. THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH ADDITIONAL                   
SUPPORT FROM THE DGEX. WITH MODELS AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL                 
NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING HAVE REMOVED CHANCE OF              
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND RAISED TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES               
FOR WEDNESDAY. FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS               
COOLING FROM ABOUT 15C TO -4C. WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING SHOWN                
FOR SEVERAL RUNS AND MODELS SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT ON                         
TIMING...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING.                      
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ON                    
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG               
SURFACE HIGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL                  
COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP. WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -4C...WE COULD               
EASILY SEE MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE DETROIT HEAT ISLAND DROPPING               
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. FROST WILL BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IF              
THE SURFACE HIGH SETS UP DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INCREASING COOLING                   
POTENTIAL.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION...DWD                                                                  
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KEK                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
855 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TEMPS INLAND ARE FALLING A BIT FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY             
FCST IN AREAS WHERE WIND HAS DECOUPLED BUT SOME AREAS MAINTAINING               
AROUND 5 KT WITH TEMPS REMAINING UP. DEW POINTS NOT RECOVERING VERY             
QUICK INLAND AND GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FCST LOWS            
NEAR 60 MAY WORK IN THE 57 TO 62 RANGE TONIGHT INLAND SO WILL NOT               
PLAN CHANGING FCST LOWS ATTM. LOW CLOUDS PUSHING WEST INTO COASTAL              
SECTIONS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S AND TEMP WILL REMAIN MUCH              
HIGHER THAN INLAND. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OFF SHORE ALSO TRYING TO             
PUSH WEST BUT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME. RUC NOT HANDLING THIS LIGHT              
PCPN VERY WELL BUT 18Z RUN OF GFS DID. CURRENT FCST OF SLIGHT CHANCE            
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD HOLD MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO            
UPDATE FOR INCREASED LOW CLOUDS.                                                
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS INLAND MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD GIVE WAY             
TO MVFR CIGS BY DAY BREAK ALL BUT FAR INLAND SECTIONS. SOME MVFR                
VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.                                         
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO INDICATE               
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS                
VARYING FROM 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST AWAY FROM SHORE AND TO THE NORTH.              
EXPECT NE FLOW TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PRIMARILY WIND WAVE GIVING            
WAY TO SWELL BY LATE MON. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF 3 TO 5 FT            
MOST AREAS. THIS WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF LOWER NEAR SHORE SEAS                 
ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WHERE WINDS ARE MOSTLY OFF SHORE.                         
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS                                
         FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158 FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY TO 8 PM               
         FRIDAY.                                                                
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MLF                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
835 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES.                                
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ORIENTED ALONG A KROX-KABR LINE SHIFTING EAST              
15-20 MPH AND SHOULD CLEAR FA AROUND 06Z. WEAK RETURNS AHEAD OF                 
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SE FA HOWEVER SHORTLY WILL BE EAST OF FA. UPSTREAM            
CLOUD COVER IN WAKE OF BOUNDARY MAINLY HIGH CLOUD. LOW LEVEL COLD               
ADVECTION IN PROGRESS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING IN WAKE OF FRONT.              
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE CHALLENGE WITH BAROACLINIC ZONE ACROSS              
FA. CURRENT MINIMUMS LINING UP WELL WITH RUC SO AM NOT PLANNING ON              
ANY MAJOR CHANGES. OVERALL CHANGES TO UPDATE MINIMAL.                           
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1003 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...CONCERNS TODAY INVOLVE CLOUD TRENDS AND RESULTANT                     
TEMPERATURES. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF                 
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL ND. 12Z RUC                      
INDICATING SUFFICIENT 925MB MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WARM AIR                     
ADVECTION TO PRODUCE OBSERVED LOW CLOUDS. THESE CONDITIONS TO                   
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH (W RED                
RIVER VALLEY BY MID-AFTERNOON...E RED RIVER VALLEY AFT 00Z).                    
HEATING SHOULD DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS SOME...BUT WILL NEED TO                   
INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND THUS LOWER TEMPS 2F-4F. REMAINDER OF                   
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE (INCLUDING WIND SPEEDS). UPDATE TO BE                    
ISSUED BY 1030 AM.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC                              
857 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...                                                
SURFACE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH               
BETTER INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED SOUTH OF               
THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN GA. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP SOME DEGREE OF 900                
TO 850 MB MOISTURE LOCKED IN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH LIGHT                   
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE RUC AND NAM AGREE THAT THE BEST LOW                  
LEVEL MOISTURE POOL SHOULD AFFECT THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA                 
OVERNIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS CONTINUING TO FAN OUT ALONG AND                
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT ON CLOUD COVER WILL                
BE THE MAIN CHANGE OVERNIGHT.                                                   
FEATURED FORECAST TEMPS ARE WELL ABOVE THE COOL MAV NUMBERS FOR                 
TONIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN                
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.                  
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
(ISSUED 257 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                                              
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO             
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. GFS AND NAM SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR              
HANDLING OF SURFACE LAYER MOISTURE...BUT TIME HEIGHTS MAKE A STRONG             
CASE FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE UPSLOPE CUMULUS             
THAT DEVELOPED TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT              
WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WE MAY SEE STRATUS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN               
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE STABLE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS REALLY DID               
NOT OCCUR LAST NITE UNTIL VERY LATE; HOWEVER...WE HAVE THE MOISTURE             
IN PLACE NOW AND MOISTURE MAY PICK UP AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA                
LATE. WILL PLAN TO INCLUDE PATCHY DENSE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG...PATCHY            
FOG FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA             
LAKES ADJACENT TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. ELSEWHERE...A BIT OF WIND AND             
LESS THAN CLEAR SKIES LIKELY TO KEEP FOG ISOLATED.                              
MONDAY LOOKING QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS BRING A            
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMA OVER THE CWFA. THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO                  
STRONG IN ERODING ANY UPGLIDE OVER THE SURFACE RIDGE...BUT WILL GO              
WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10            
MPH.                                                                            
TEMPERATURES TONITE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTHWEST...WHERE                  
DEWPOINTS HIGHER AND WHERE CLOUDINESS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST; WINDS             
ALSO LIKELY TO STAY UP LONGER THAN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. BASED ON                 
TODAY...WE WENT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXES FOR MONDAY.                           
CENTER OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO CWFA TUE AND WED.                   
CENTER OF SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THIS                   
PERIOD...BUT RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE AREA. IT DOES WEAKEN A                    
LITTLE WED. GENERAL EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA               
WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...BEST                      
MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST AS SOME DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP                
ANY PRECIP AT BAY. ALSO...MDLS SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT                
AND/OR UPSLOPE...BUT PRECIP RESPONSE IN MDLS IS VERY LOW TO NIL.                
GIVEN RECENT CONDITIONS AND MDL FCSTS...LOOKS LIKE DRIER FCST IS                
IN STORE. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO MAV POP WHICH MEANS DRY MONDAY                    
NIGHT...SLIGHT CHC SRN SECTIONS TUE/TUE NITE...AND LOW CHC SRN                  
SECTION WED WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WENT CLOSER TO MAV TEMP                  
GUIDANCE THIS PERIOD AS MET TOO COOL ON LOWS AND HIGHS GIVEN LESS               
PRECIP AND MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. &&                                            
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...                                   
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THU INTO FRI AS SERIES OF            
SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF OVER THE EAST. SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRI AS                 
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARD THE AREA. WAVE SLOWLY TRANSLATES             
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY. AT THE             
SURFACE...MOIST ELY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS FRONT APPROACHES              
THU. FNT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLS OUT                
SATURDAY WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY. ALL THIS MEANS              
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THU...NEARLY STEADY FRIDAY THEN DECREASING            
SATURDAY. DRY FCST SUNDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES...COULD BE A              
DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SOME THUNDER WITH THE                
FRONT. TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...BELOW FRIDAY              
AND SATURDAY...THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY.                              
AVIATION...                                                                     
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSING DOWN THE           
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD KEEP VFR CUMULUS CEILINGS IN PLACE UNTIL           
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SETUP OF LOW LEVEL INVERSION OCCUR                  
TOWARD EVENING. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS GIVE STRONG EVIDENCE THAT STRATUS            
WILL DEVELOP IN MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE NEAR THE             
SURFACE BELOW VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS                
CEILINGS IN VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KAVL;                   
HOWEVER...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH ZTL CWSU...WE WILL GO AHEAD AND              
ADVERTISE MVFR CEILINGS IN TEMPO GROUPS AT KCLT...KGSP...AND                    
KGMU...AND ALSO AT KAND WITH POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITY THERE.              
WE WILL ALSO FEATURE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT KHKY...WITH TEMPO            
FOR IFR IN THE PREDAWN AT KAVL...WHICH HAS BEEN IN LIFR THE PAST FEW            
MORNINGS. OUTLOOK PERIOD MIXES OUT TO VFR ALL LOCATIONS BY                      
16Z...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.                                           
&&                                                                              
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
NC...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM...HG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1105 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES WARM FRONT            
ACROSS MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY SURFACE DEWPOINTS               
ARE IN THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS            
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.                                                           
12Z 850 MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME                
EXTENDING JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UP INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.               
500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THIS               
AFTERNOON. LAPS DATA SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED               
NEAR THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI BORDER WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ALREADY               
BECOMING UNSTABLE AS NOTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS            
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS                     
AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG...LI/S AROUND                   
-6...AND 700-500 MB LAYER LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM SUGGEST ANY                 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD EXHIBIT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION               
TENDENCIES. THINK THAT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PRIMARILY               
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. WILL KEEP CONVECTION             
AS ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE              
TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES/CLOUD                       
COVER BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.                                                  
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.                                        
CJC                                                                             
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005...                          
A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE                    
DRIFTING TO THE NORTH TODAY. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL             
BE JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS             
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.                                           
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY               
AND PERSISTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL                 
CONTINUE THE WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME              
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST MON-TUE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY 20             
POPS AS THE HIGH WILL BE TOO STRONG.                                            
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST                 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE                  
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL              
FOLLOW THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST                
PERIOD AS A STRONG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.                
SWC                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
820 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND 500MB RUC HEIGHT                 
ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES                     
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM OTIS NEAR                  
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO            
INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE             
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES THIS EVENING. MSAS SURFACE            
ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING                
INTO EAST TX AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW               
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST TX. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO               
INCREASE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX WITH THE EASTERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL                
FLOW BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO                 
WESTWARD. RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN              
GULF OF MEXICO ADVECTING WESTWARD WITH THIS FLOW AND SHOULD MOVE                
INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. AS TROPICAL STORM STAN            
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND                 
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE EXPECTED TO                    
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TX PROVIDING AN            
INCREASE IN CONVECTION TOWARDS THE MORNING INTO MONDAY. WITH                    
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE             
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY                   
TONIGHT AND MENTION SHOWERS ONLY BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS BUT               
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS MORNING AS STAN EMERGES INTO               
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...WINDS THIS EVENING ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS             
AT 42020 AND 42002 WITH SEAS APPROXIMATELY 4 FEET. A MODEST INCREASE            
IN WINDS/WAVES IS EXPECTED AS T.S. STAN MOVES INTO THE BAY OF                   
CAMPECHE ON MONDAY.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS              
WELL AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE NW GULF             
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS T.S. STAN ADVECTING DEEP LAYER            
MOISTURE INTO THE NW GULF DURING THE DAY. THIS HAS LED TO AN                    
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE MARINE AREA AND COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY.            
PERIODIC MVFR CONDS/SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                      
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERALL...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS              
ARE EXPECTED.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005/                          
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL                 
CONTINUE PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS DEEP                 
SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM STAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD             
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STAN WILL MOVE INTO              
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICAN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE STORM                 
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE               
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONSHORE                 
EASTERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN AND A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE            
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE                 
VALLEY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO              
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH AN INCREASE IN THE            
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP                 
SOUTH TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND              
REDUCING TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY            
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,            
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL                
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY                   
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
61/51                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 22005                                                        
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS                
THIS EVENING...THEN ON NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF            
DEVELOPING STRONG LOW OVER FAR NW WI WEDNESDAY MORNING.                         
WATER VAPOR AND RUC SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS NEAR MS RIVER AREA               
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXIT THE EAST LATE TONIGHT.              
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED DUE TO EARLY SUNSHINE AND INCREASING                   
MOISTURE.  DEW POINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S RESULTING IN LI'S AROUND               
-4. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT OF SHORTWAVE HAS                 
RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY THIS               
AFTERNOON. LOW LELEL HELICITY RATHER STRONG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND             
EARLY EVENING...BUT WINDS ABOVE NOT SO STRONG.                                  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM INTO WEDNESDAY AS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST            
FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO NORTHWEST BRINGS SUMMER-LIKE               
TEMPERATURES FOR MON/TUE...AND NOW WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT WARM                
TEMPS INTO WEDNESDAY.                                                           
WITH THE WARM 850 TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER REGION...TEMPERATURES              
WILL BE NEAR RECORDS.  THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER THE              
WARM SECTOR WILL BE DRY AS SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND LOW LEVEL JET            
INCREASES.  AT THIS MOMENT PREFER TO STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL                      
WEDNESDAY...AS WARM FRONT SHOULD BE TO THE NORTH.                               
WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE...ANY FROST POTENTIAL              
PUSHED BACK 24 HOURS.  NOW IF WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW                 
DECOUPLE FAST ENOUGH...FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING              
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA              
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY                
MORNING...THOUGH LESS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE COUNTIES AS LAKE WATER              
TEMPS/850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE AND NE FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS INLAND              
AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.                       
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HENTZ                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI                                           
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 2 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FOR NOW NO FORECAST UPDATES NEEDED. THOUGH WILL KEEP AN EYE ON                  
TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA...AS IT LOOKS LIKE MORE CLOUDS THAN             
SUN AT THIS TIME. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO               
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO             
DEVELOP UNDER ACCAS FIELD OVER CLAYTON AND ALLAMAKEE COUNTIES IN                
NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO GOOD 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT            
VECTORS INDICATED BY THE RUC AND LAPS AT 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN FORECAST AREA               
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL               
AND ISOLATED OVER EASTERN FORECAST AREA. LATEST 12Z NAM AND RUC                 
INDICATE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND 0-3 KM SHEAR OF 30             
TO 35 KNOTS BETWEEN 18-21Z.                                                     
DTJ                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY                                                   
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT              
AND THEN AGAIN BY TUESDAY.                                                      
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE               
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.             
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO WYOMING.                         
THE 00Z MODELS APPEARED TO BE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH NO MAJOR             
PROBLEMS NOTED. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS                   
FIELDS FOR THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT.            
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM COMING IN                  
TUESDAY AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION.                         
SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN                 
PLAINS IS NOW PROGRESSING NORTHEAST AND IS OVER THE KMCI AREA. THIS             
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY AS THE LONG WAVE                  
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY CONTINUES TO DEEPEN TO               
AMPLIFY THE OVERALL FLOW. WITH THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...               
THE BEST FORCING WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST           
AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS FOR THIS REGION. SYSTEM                 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IS WORKS UP AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE               
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND THE FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG              
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS IN THE              
CHANCE RANGE. THE NAM IS STILL SHOWING SURFACE AND ELEVATED CAPE                
VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER.              
OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.                   
SATELLITE IS CURRENTLY SHOWING MAINLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY                 
BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MORE EXTENSIVE                  
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT             
COOLED MUCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.               
BUMPED HIGHS FOR TODAY UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE WARM               
START AND WITH THE DEEPER CLOUD COVER BEING SLOWER TO ARRIVE.                   
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE               
NIGHT. TIME/HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES                
BELOW 800 MB AND THE NAM SHOWS AROUND 2 UBAR/S OF UPGLIDE ON THE                
305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF LOW             
CLOUDS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN                 
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.                                                            
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION STARTING               
TUESDAY. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CROSS THE              
ROCKIES AND ENTER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT                     
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE              
FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STARTS TO KICK IT EAST.              
THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEAR LAKE                    
SUPERIOR ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA BY LATE TUESDAY. AS FORCING             
FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM INCREASES...COULD SEE SOME              
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LATE TUESDAY.                
UNTIL THEN...THE REGION WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO                 
KEEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ON            
THE GFS INCREASE TO AROUND 18C BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN              
THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE HIGHS FOR MONDAY BUT              
DID RAISE VALUES FOR TUESDAY.                                                   
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                     
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DRIVE ACROSS              
THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG DYNAMICAL                 
FORCING EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE GFS TIME/HEIGHT             
PLOTS SHOWING THE LIFT TO BE AROUND 5 UBAR/S TUESDAY NIGHT. THE                 
BEST 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR              
TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF 0-3 KM SHEAR AVAILABLE WITH THE GFS SHOWING            
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE LINEAR               
FORCING SIGNAL THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR STRAIGHT LINE             
WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE              
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS           
IN THE 30S. MASSAGED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN                   
SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN IN              
THE WARMER AIR THE LONGEST. THEN LOWERED TEMPERATURES SOME BOTH                 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH THE 850 MB RIDGE REMAINING WEST OF            
THE AREA HELPING TO MAINTAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST             
AREA.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
WI...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
IA...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
04                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
202 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES THE NEXT SEVERAL               
DAYS AS 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BUT JUST A MEMORY                  
COME WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN                
AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. TOUGHEST PART OF THE                
FORECAST REMAINS ON FRONTAL TIMING AS THE NAM IS ISOLATED IN ITS                
SOLUTION (QUICKER) WHEN COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF SHORT RANGE                
MODELS. HOWEVER...THE NAM HAS A KNACK FOR NAILING THESE EVENTS SO               
ITS SOLUTION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.                                       
AT 08Z LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM                   
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST INTO YUMA COUNTY COLORADO THEN TOWARD                
LIMON. LATEST 06Z RUC AND 00Z NAM HAVE THE WINDSHIFT HANDLED WELL               
AND HAVE BLENDED BOTH IN THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM                
57 DEGREES IN FLAGLER (EASTERN COLORADO) TO 77 DEGREES IN HILL                  
CITY KANSAS. HILL CITYS NORMAL HIGH TODAY IS 77.                                
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY                
AS THIS MORNINGS COLD FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED                 
WITH A DISTURBANCE CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE                   
NORTHEAST TODAY...LEAVING A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850                         
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS 2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ALL SUPPORT HIGHS               
AGAIN IN THE 90S. NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL BE MENTIONED FOR                
GOODLAND (93)...BURLINGTON COLORADO (92) AND COLBY KANSAS (94).                 
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE                        
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BACK INTO THE               
AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN PUSH SOUTH AND INTO THE AREA                    
GENERALLY BISECTING THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.                       
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S GENERALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE                  
BOUNDARY SO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL MINS EXPECTED WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER               
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.                                         
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE                           
GFS/NGM/RUC/UKMET IS TO KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE                 
DAY WHILE THE NAM BULLS ITS WAY SOUTH AND IS THE ONLY SOLUTION TO               
DO SO. EITHER WAY...SOME SLIGHT COOLING AT 850 IS NOTED BY THE                  
MODELS BY SOME 3-5F. WILL AGAIN SEE SOME CIRRUS WITH THE EXACT                  
POSITION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN QUESTION. FRONT WILL BLOW                 
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND                     
DYNAMICS TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION..MAINLY WEST               
THROUGH NORTH/NORTHEAST PER GFS SOLUTION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE               
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRETTY MUCH END THINGS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER                    
MIDNIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG WITH FRONT WILL BE                   
QUICKLY EXITING THE AREA.                                                       
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE AREA                 
DURING THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 30 DEGREES COLDER              
THEN TUESDAYS READINGS. THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS                
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROMISING LITTLE RETURN FLOW FROM THE                
SOUTH TO OFFSET OR WARM OVERNIGHT READINGS. 2M/MOS GUIDANCE                     
NUMBERS ARE ALL IN THE 30S AND AN INCREASED THREAT FROM FROST OR                
FREEZE IS EXPECTED TO COVER MUCH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA.                     
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH STILL INFLUENCING THE AREA WITH 850                     
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COLDER THEN WEDNESDAYS READINGS. LATEST              
DGEX/GFS HAVE AN EAST WIND SO SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS               
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON                 
THINGS AS WELL SO BROUGHT HIGHS DOWN CLOSE TO 60 OR SO.                         
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE AS 850 TEMPERATURES                 
WARM QUITE A BIT EACH DAY UNDER GRADUAL WEST COAST TROUGHING.                   
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DDT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
425 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST ISSUES ARE PCPN CHANCES TODAY THRU MIDWEEK.                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN                
OVER THE CONUS. A DEEP TROF WAS ALONG THE W COAST WITH A STRONG                 
MIDLEVEL LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN RIDING ENE AROUND PERIPHERY OF AN                
IMPRESSIVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE ERN CONUS/SE CANADA. A SHORTWAVE                
CURRENTLY LIFTING NE THRU ERN UPPER MI/LWR MI HAS PRODUCED SCT SHRA             
AND A FEW TSRA OVER SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI DURING THE NIGHT. EXPECT                
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE CWA BY FCST ISSUANCE TIME.                
MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SW FLOW HAS BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE N              
INTO THE MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER AT                         
KGRB/KMPX/KINL/KDVN WAS RUNNING IN THE 1-1.7 INCH RANGE OR                      
190-230PCT OF NORMAL. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A                 
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING THRU THE PLAINS...CONNECTED TO             
ONCE HURRICANE OTIS NEAR THE BAJA. AT THE SFC...DWPTS LOOKED VERY               
SUMMERLIKE WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70F COMMON FROM KS/MO ACROSS                  
IA/IL/MN/WI. 08Z TEMP AT KIWD WAS STILL 72F...IS IT REALLY OCT? TO              
THE W...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES OVER FAR NE MANITOBA S THRU            
WRN MN TO FAR SE SD AND INTO NEBRASKA. PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL              
BE CRITICAL TO PCPN POSSIBILITIES PRIOR TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ARRIVING            
MIDWEEK. ALSO...THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR               
HVY RAINFALL NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                             
NAM CONTINUES TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING COLD FRONT SLOWLY                
THRU THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THRU TUE AND STALLING JUST S OF UPPER MI.            
THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MDT TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER             
MOST OF THE FCST AREA AS STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE TUE INTO              
WED. THE NAM IS ON ITS OWN AS GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET HOLD FRONT UP OVER             
THE NW PART OF UPPER MI OR EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER W PER CANADIAN.                
GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY DOMINATING THE ERN CONUS...             
WILL FAVOR THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS UP FRONT OVER NW UPPER            
MI PRIOR TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL MIDWEEK.                                   
GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE CAPPED TODAY...           
PREVENTING SFC BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL            
FLOW IS ANTICYLONIC AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...TO THE                 
W...WITH COLD FRONT SLIPPING E OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR...CAN'T RULE              
OUT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WITHIN THETA-E               
RIDGE. THUS...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FCST WHICH HAS            
SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE W THIRD TODAY. WITH 850MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO             
YESTERDAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR...PROVIDED CLOUD COVER                   
DOESN'T BECOME TOO WIDESPREAD. WILL GO WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80                
MOST AREAS...WITH READINGS AROUND 70 NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT                 
RECORD OF 73 HERE AT THE OFFICE TO FALL EASILY.                                 
TONIGHT AND TUE...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS                 
MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO WILL BE THE KEY FACTOR IN PROGRESSION OF COLD              
FRONT. STRONG CONFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT BUILDING HIGH PRES TO THE N               
AND AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR SE ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO. RESULT WILL BE            
STRENGTHENING AND TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH                    
FRONT...WHICH WILL BE FORCED VERY SLOWLY SE BY THE INCREASING SFC               
PRES ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE TO            
THE S SUGGESTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE              
FRONT. WITH FRONT SLIPPING SE TO FAR WRN UPPER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO            
CARRY PCPN CHANCES OVER THE W TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON LIKELY             
POPS FOR NOW DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SE FRONT WILL DRIFT             
TONIGHT. WILL STAY WITH A DRY FCST CNTRL/E. WILL BE UNSEASONABLY                
WARM AGAIN WITH MINS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF             
YEAR DUE TO UNUSUALLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT FRONT TO HANG UP               
FROM NEAR KIWD TO NEAR KMQT ON TUE PER GFS/UKMET. STRENGTHENING                 
UPPER JET ACROSS NRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL IMPROVE BROAD UPPER                    
DIVERGENCE FIELD OVERTOP FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THE LOW-LEVELS...                 
FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES BTWN 925-800MB OVER THE NW HALF OF FCST AREA            
(ALONG JUST BEHIND SFC FRONT) WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW                  
ACROSS SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER            
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES AND BRING CHC POPS INTO THE CNTRL (ROUGHLY AS              
FAR E AS KIMT TO MUNISING). LATER FCSTS MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS TO               
CATEGORICAL OVER THE W IF CONFIDENCE ON POSITION OF FRONT INCREASES.            
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY/EXCESSIVE               
RAINFALL GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.75            
INCHES OR 250-300PCT OF NORMAL FOR UPPER MI) WITH TROPICAL                      
CONNECTION AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AROUND 14KFT PER GFS FCST                  
SOUNDINGS.                                                                      
STRONG SHORTWAVE EMERGING OUT INTO THE WRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT WILL                
LEAD TO SFC LOW PRES LIFTING NE TO CNTRL MN BY 12Z WED.                         
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (850MB WINDS 40-50KT) IN RESPONSE TO                
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL WORK TO PUSH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE            
N TUE NIGHT/WED. DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW QUICK OR HOW FAR N FRONT WILL            
MOVE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ALONG IT...AND THAT WILL            
BE VERY IMPORTANT TO PCPN FCST AND POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL             
IN UPPER MI. AT THE MOMENT...WOULD APPEAR THAT HEAVIEST RAINFALL                
WILL BE JUST NW AND N OF FCST AREA ALONG AND JUST N OF SHARP 850MB              
FRONT FROM NEAR KDLH TO NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR. AGAIN... WILL BE                  
SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE                      
AVAILABLE. WILL KEEP POPS ALIGNED TUE NIGHT IN A SIMILAR WAY TO THE             
TUE PERIOD.                                                                     
DESPITE HAVING A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE...                            
UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS HAVE QUITE DIFFERENT TIMING FOR SFC LOW. BY 00Z              
THU...UKMET IS SLOWEST WITH SFC LOW IN NW MN...CANADIAN IS IN THE               
MIDDLE OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE GFS IS FASTEST WITH SFC LOW OVER            
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE              
LINES OF GOING FCST (WHICH IS SIMILAR TO GFS) AND SPREAD LIKELY POPS            
W TO E ON WED.                                                                  
WILL BECOME WINDY BEHIND SYSTEM WED NIGHT/THU IN STRONG CAA REGIME              
WITH POTENTIAL GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AND STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE              
WILL BE SOME SNOW MIXED WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS IN DEVELOPING LAKE                
EFFECT REGIME WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. WON'T BE THE FIRST SNOW                 
FLAKES TO FALL IN THE U.P. THIS FALL SINCE SOME SNOW BRIEFLY FELL IN            
THE EARLY MORNING HRS OF SEPT 29TH IN ALGER COUNTY. GOING FCST MIGHT            
BE A BIT QUICK TO BRING MIXED PCPN INTO THE AREA WED NIGHT BASED ON             
UKMET/CANADIAN. WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REEVALUATE POTENTIAL BASED ON               
12Z RUNS.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
112 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
CONCERNS REGARDING FOG AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT              
AVIATION INTERESTS THROUGH ABOUT NOON TODAY.                                    
THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS APPEARS TO                
BE RESIDING OVER SW LOWER MICHIGAN, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE              
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, AT LEAST JUDGING BY RADAR IMAGERY AND 00Z              
MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS. THIS IS WHERE NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED               
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE FAVORED AND AFFECTING THE MBS               
AND FNT TERMINALS MORE THAN DTW AND DET, ALTHOUGH PRECIP CAN'T BE               
RULED OUT THERE AS WELL FOR THE SAME REASONS BUT WITH A LITTLE                  
BOOST FROM AN MCV LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE                
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE TRI CITIES WHERE                
THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ADVECTION, STEEPER MID LEVEL                   
LAPSE RATES, AND MODEST SUPPORT FROM THE FILLING WAVE COME                      
TOGETHER.                                                                       
INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINT WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND FOG               
BEFORE SUNRISE. SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE 5 TO 10                   
KNOT RANGE AND MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING, ALONG WITH CLOUD                   
COVER, BUT SURFACE DEWPOINT RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S WILL              
RESULT IN AT LEAST AREAS OF MVFR FOG AS THE LONGER NIGHT UNFOLDS.               
EXPECT THE FOG TO LIFT SLOWLY AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH              
DURING THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS                     
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 940 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                          
UPDATE...                                                                       
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE COVERAGE OF                    
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL ANTICIPATING A TRANSITION FROM                 
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO ELEVATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THE                 
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS DEPICT FAIRLY WELL THE COMBINATION OF                
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHORT WAVE SUPPORT THAT IS                     
ONGOING AND RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND                  
STORMS. THE COMBINATION OF THETA-E ADVECTION BELOW 700 MB AND DCVA              
FROM THE WAVE FAVORS LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF DETROIT                 
FOR NEW SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY                       
MORNING.                                                                        
OUR GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE THEME OF THE UPDATE WILL               
BE TO ADD SOME CONFIDENCE WITH AREAL COVERAGE TERMS RATHER THAN                 
CHANCE TERMS IN THE PRECIP FORECAST AROUND FLINT AND THE TRI                    
CITIES, NOW THAT WE HAVE ACTIVITY ON RADAR. WE'LL ALSO USE THIS                 
UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE OTHER ELEMENTS. THE TEMP FORECAST              
LOOKS GOOD BUT WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO COME IN NEAR THE WARM END              
OF THE RANGE.                                                                   
PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 308 PM EDT SUN OCT 2 2005)                           
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY                                                 
WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHER LOWER                  
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN IN THE               
LOW TO MID 60S. UNLIKE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE MODELS ARE NOT                  
OVERESTIMATING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE            
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS DE-AMPLIFYING                  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REACHES                   
THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER MONDAY MORNING. MAIN FORCING WITH THIS                
SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. NONE-THE-LESS...ENOUGH              
SOUTHWARD EXTENSION/INSTABILITY/TROUGHINESS TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE             
POPS...BEST CHANCE ACROSS TRI-CITIES REGION TONIGHT.                            
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS                  
TOMORROW...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO HOVER WELL INTO THE                
60S. WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND             
A LACK OF A TRIGGER...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THE                     
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY INDICATED            
(CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH LI'S OF -3 C OR BETTER)...THE CAPE             
IS SKINNY AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CIN (25-50 J/KG).                   
CU RULES POINTING TO SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND             
925 MB TEMPS RUNNING AROUND 23 C...MAX TEMPS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB                
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. KEEP IN MIND...RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE                 
UPPER 80S FOR EARLY OCTOBER.                                                    
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY                                         
THE TRANSITION OF THE SEASONS IS DEFINITELY THE CHALLENGE IN THE                
FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF               
THE WEEK (INCLUDING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST)                
WILL BE RATHER SUMMER-LIKE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE                 
LOWER TO MID 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS                 
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.              
THE TREND TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM AND               
SAID FRONT CONTINUES IN THE 12Z RUNS...WHICH BODES WELL FOR ANOTHER             
WARM DAY. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST SHORT OF 80 (A SOLID 15             
DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER)...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR               
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE               
LAST HALF OF THE DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL DELAY IN THIS SYSTEM MAY                   
WARRANT AN EVEN WARMER FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.                                   
THEREAFTER...COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.           
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS THEN SET UP ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY WITH A SLOW               
MODERATION INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE FORECAST               
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH 60...AND               
LIKELY WILL NOT IN MANY AREAS. THIS BOUT OF COOL WEATHER WILL BE OF             
A LONGER DURATION THAN LAST WEEKS SYSTEM AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE             
SLOWLY SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.             
THIS WILL NOT ONLY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AOB 60 THURSDAY AND                   
FRIDAY...BUT PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD 30S FRIDAY MORNING...IF NOT INTO            
THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH ACTUALLY SETTLES OVERHEAD AND PROVIDE THE               
BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SCENARIO. BY THIS TIME...THE EDGE WILL BE              
TAKEN OFF AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED.                        
EVEN WITH SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE FROST MENTION OUT OF              
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. WOULD LIKE TO NAIL DOWN THE TIMING OF            
ANY LEFTOVER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WHICH COULD DEFINITELY IMPEDE THE               
DEGREE OF COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE              
MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE IFFY FOR FROST             
TO BE WIDESPREAD. GIVEN DEGREE OF TROUBLE THE MODELS HAVE HAD WITH              
THIS TRANSITION SO FAR...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE CONTINUITY             
BEFORE DELVING TOO DEEPLY INTO THE FROST POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY IS                
SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN THE COMING DAYS THOUGH.                                
WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...DRY WEATHER            
WILL TAKE HOLD LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE MORE               
THAN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WHICH WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THURSDAY AND              
PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER OF            
HIGH PRESSURE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION/UPDATE...BT                                                            
SHORT TERM...SF                                                                 
LONG TERM....DG                                                                 
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
405 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                     
THE RUC MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS AN 850 MB LIFTED INDEX FROM MINUS 3 TO            
MINUS 5 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION IS ALSO              
INDICATED BY THE RUC MODEL PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF               
OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY                 
CAPPED BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 14Z WITH RADAR                 
SHOWING A CONVECTIVE CELL JUST EAST OF MSP.                                     
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SOUTHWEST                  
MINNESOTA TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH            
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER RUNNING THIS             
BOUNDARY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE            
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE                
STATIONARY FRONT BUT SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR               
THE BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT                
SINCE THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATED THAT A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER               
KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF              
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.                                        
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM               
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE             
WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASES ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND THE             
GFS MODEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS            
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HEAVY RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER                  
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A LOW LEVEL THETA E                
AXIS IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE AREA             
TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST                     
AREA....AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES                
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                                                      
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND EXITING STRONG SHORT WAVE THU WHICH              
WILL MEAN QUICK SHUT OFF TO PRECIP IN ADDITION TO RAPID ARRIVAL OF              
SFC HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY...COOL AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER INTO            
SAT MORN WHEN VERY WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS. EXACT               
TIMING OF FROPA DIFFERS BY 12 HRS /GFSLR SHOWS SAT NIGHT AND DGEX               
SHOWS SUN/ BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED            
SO ONLY EXPECTING SCT CLDS TO ACCOMPANY IT. DRY WRLY TO NWRLY FLOW              
BEHIND FROPA SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI                                  
350 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY             
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING STRONG LOW OVER FAR NW WI WEDNESDAY MORNING.                
PERSISTENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO PAC NW WILL KEEP             
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SRN WI INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MIXING             
OUT 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 18C GIVES HI TEMPS APPROACHING RECORD                   
LEVELS. BEST CHANCE TO SET RECORD IS TODAY AT MKE (84) AND MSN (85).            
LIMITING FACTOR AT MKE TODAY WOULD BE ONSET OF LAKE BREEZE.                     
BAROCLINIC LEAF ON WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE                  
TROUGH AXIS IN VCNTY OF TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL MOVE TOWARD FORECAST               
AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW CAP                  
BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB AT PEAK HEATING...BUT LIFT FROM DCVA MAY BE              
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME. WL ADD A CHC OF TSTMS TO WRN CWA FOR LATE                   
AFTERNOON/EVE.                                                                  
ANOTHER SHOT AT A RECORD HI TEMP TUE AT MSN WHICH AGAIN IS 85                   
DEGREES. DO NOT SEE MKE GETTING CLOSE TO THE RECORD OF 88 BECAUSE OF            
LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR AT BOTH LOCATIONS                
WOULD BE SCT SHRA/TSTMS TUE AFTERNOON. FCST SNDGS SHOW NO CAP MID               
AFTERNOON...WITH CAPES IN THE 1500 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE AND LI'S OF -2            
TO -4. POTENTIAL TRIGGER WOULD BE SHRT WV INTERACTION AS RIPPLES                
RIDE TWD WI ON SW FLOW. HAVE ADDED CHC TSTMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON.                 
STAYING WITH CONSENSUS GFS TIMING OF TROF AND STRONG COLD FRONT THRU            
RGN WED...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH PREV FCST. LINGERING CLOUDS AND POST            
FNTL PCPN WED NGT WILL LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO            
DECOUPLE AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER STATE AND GRADIENT SLACKENS...FROST             
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL                        
WISCONSIN...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND                
SATURDAY...AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH                
LESS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKE COUNTIES AS LAKE WATER TEMPS/850 MB TEMP             
DIFFERENCE AND NE FLOW WILL BRING STRATUS INLAND AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY            
WARMER TEMPS THAN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.                                           
&&                                                                              
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
REM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   wi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
1000 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY SUBTLE TEMP AND PCPN CONCERNS FOR MRNG UPDATE.    HAVE ADDED               
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS ENTIRE FA THIS AFTN WITH KS SHRT WV APCHG.  XPC               
PERSISTENCE WITH KS ELEVATED CONVECTION AS IT REACHES IA.                       
IMPRESSIVE MSTR TRANSPORT ALG 305K ISENT SFC ABV INVERSION THIS MRNG            
BUT ONLY SLGT LIFT IN PLACE.  DEEPER MSTR LACKING SOMEWHAT TOO SO               
ALTHOUGH H85 COMPUTED CAPE 200-600 J/KG SUPRESSING CIN STILL IN                 
PLACE WHICH SHOULD LMT AREAL CVRG.                                              
AT FIRST GLANCE GOING TEMPS WOULD SEEM FINE WITH 14Z OBS IN LOWER TO            
MIDDLE 70S ALREADY.  HWVR AFT A LOOK AT NAM...RUC AND GFS FCST                  
SOUNDINGS IT APPRS A FEW DEG TRIM WOULD BE IN ORDER.  EVEN WARMEST              
RUC WITH SLGT SUPER-ADIABATIC NR SFC LAPSE RATES JUST REACH GOING               
HIGHS.  CLDS AND PCPN SHOULD INCR SOMEWHAT THIS AFTN SO FEEL OUR                
RAPID TEMP RISE SHOULD STALL BY THAT TIME KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK.               
NO OTHER SGFNT CHGS TO FCST.                                                    
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
VRY WRM AMS IN PLACE WITH REC HI MID TEMPS ACRS                                 
STATE THIS MRNG.  SHUD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO REC HIGHS IN SVRL AREAS               
TDA WITH THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT BEING THE CLD COVER ASSOCD                
WITH S/WV LFGT OUT OF THE SRN RCKYS.  CDFNT CONT TO SLOW DWN AS HAS             
BEEN TREND PAST SVRL DAYS.  GFS SEEMS TO HV A GUD HNDL ON IT AND IS             
ABT IN LINE WITH CANADIAN ENS CHARTS.  SEF RUN IS IN VRY CLOSE AGMT             
WITH GFS, GEM A BIT SLOWER BUT GEM ENS ABT THE SAME WITH TIMING AS              
GFS.  ALL IN ALL FEEL GFS IS MDLS OF CHOICE WITH FNTL TIMING.  IN               
THE LATER PDS, I.E. POST 84 HRS, THE GFS LKS TOO AGRESSIVE ON THE               
COLD AIR.  A DECENT PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR, BUT PROB NOT AS STG            
AS FCST.  BELIEVE COLDER SOLNS SUGGEST A SNW CVR SOUTH OF 55 BY THU             
AND THUS THE -6 H8 AIR INTO NERN IA.  DID HWVR SHAVE A FEW DEG ON               
THU MINS AND KEPT TEMPS AOB NORM AFT WED.  WITH TIMING OF FNT, FEEL             
TUE NGT WL BE A WRM NGT, AND AS SUCH SHUD SEE FALLING TEMPS THRU WED            
AND HV WORDED THINGS THAT WAY.  AS FOR PCPN, THE MAIN ACTION WL BE              
WITH THE CDFNT.  SVRL EMBDD S/WVS IN THE SWLY FLOW DO POSE SOME LO              
RISK, BUT MAIN ACTION WL BE WITH CDFNT TUE AFTN AND TUE NGT.  A FEW             
LINGERING SHRA POST FROPA, BUT DRY PUNCH SHOULD KEEP THE SHWRS AND              
SC DECK TO A MINIMUM.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SMALL                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1154 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE                
MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS HAS CLEARED EAST OF THE CWA. ONLY PATCHY                   
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LEFT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...ALTHOUGH THETA-E               
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WELL IN THE WARM                 
SECTOR. WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES                 
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO NEARLY 1500J/KG MIXED             
LAYER CAPE OFF A MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING. HOWEVER GIVEN MID-LEVEL             
WARM ADVECTION...MODIFIED 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS ONLY SUPPORT TO 600J/KG             
MLCAPE. 15Z ACARS/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS MID-LEVEL WARMING...            
INDICATING 700MB TEMPS ALREADY 1-2C WARMER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A            
MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT            
ANY REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO                 
REMOVE PRECIP AND ADJUST CLOUD WORDING...BUT REMAINDER OF THE                   
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...730 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                           
LIGHT MIST/FOG RATHER PREVALENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAVE MENTIONED           
AS MVFR IN AT LEAST TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 14Z...WITH EXPECTED                       
INCREASING SUNSHINE/MIXING RAISING VISIBILITIES TO VFR BY THEN.                 
WITH RADAR RECENTLY SHOWING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER POPPING              
UP IN NORTHERN AREAS WHERE LEFT OVER OMEGA LIFT AND UPPER                       
DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE BEST...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED 3                
MILES SHOWERS/MIST MENTION IN TEMPO GROUP AT KFNT AND KMBS...ALBEIT             
WITH VFR CEILINGS...BEFORE 14Z. THUNDER MAINLY EAST OF THESE TAF                
SITES. THEREAFTER TAFS REFLECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE            
DAY AND EVEN MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH SKIES LARGELY CLEARING                       
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH...WITH DECOUPLING WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE DEW                 
POINTS IN PLACE...HAVE MENTIONED MVFR VISIBILITIES IN MIST/FOG BY               
08Z.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 428 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
MODEST SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.               
WEAKENING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD BY 12Z MOVES OFF TO THE              
EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND               
THIS TROUGH.                                                                    
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD END CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED              
THUNDER BY SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WEAK 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE CLIPPING NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS                    
MORNING. ALSO GOOD 250 MB/850 MB DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE COUPLING                
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH. IN ADDITION...MODEST 305K ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT AIDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW TO              
MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT THIS MORNING TOO...BEST IN THE NORTH...GIVING              
WAY TO SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER AREA THIS MORNING...PEELING OFF TO               
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA            
E RIDGE OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY NORTH...THIS MORNING AS WELL.                     
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICES TODAY WITH RESPECTABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND K INDICES WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT                               
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FOR SUPPORTING RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED THIS             
MORNING.                                                                        
WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...AS WILL HAVE ENOUGH                    
CLEARING TO PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH DEW POINTS REMAIN IN            
PLACE.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
ON TUESDAY A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM                  
NEWFOUNDLAND...ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED              
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH ITS EXACT POSITION DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVES             
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE MAJORITY OF THE                   
MODELS...EXCLUDING THE 00Z/03 NAM...KEEP THIS BOUNDARY AND                      
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.                 
WITH A STRONG TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...FEEL THE NAM IS                  
UNDER DONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE                  
GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION                
WHICH INDICATES SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTH TO LAKE                 
MICHIGAN AND PARTIALLY INTO NORTHWEST LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                  
WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY...CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG...THE TRI-                 
CITIES AREA WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS LATE                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE              
FORECAST DRY HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                 
DOMINATE WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850MB AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES OF ONLY 5.5 C/KM.                                                         
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED                
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT               
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/03                     
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA              
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD               
OF THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF                   
COAST STATES LIMITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE LOWERED                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS INDICATES ALMOST NO                
CAPE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A THUNDER-LESS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG             
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS FOR                
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL                     
TIMING.                                                                         
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C ON THURSDAY             
BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20             
MPH WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 40 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP               
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION                   
ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT PULLS OUT OF OUR EASTERN                    
COUNTIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE HURON                
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.              
HAVE RAISED THESE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST                 
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT                 
AND SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL STILL NEED                
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS BUT                   
NEITHER NIGHT PRESENTS IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
AVIATION.....DWD                                                                
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KEK                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1143 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR                 
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A BROAD RIDGE OVER QUEBEC               
AND DEEP LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OFF THE BRITISH                   
COLUMBIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WHICH TRAVERSED THE FORECAST AREA                    
OVERNIGHT IS OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER                  
SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE                  
FIRING OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE                     
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER            
HUDSON BAY AND A COLD FRONT DRAPES THROUGH ONTARIO...THE MINNESOTA              
ARROWHEAD...AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.                                             
THE SHORTWAVE OVER WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO.              
THE COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS ONTARIO. HOWEVER...THE WEST END OF            
FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THUS THE FRONT            
WILL STAY ALONG THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOW LEVEL                 
CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL                  
GENERATE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THUS WILL KEEP A            
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.              
CLOUD COVER WITH HOLD DOWN THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ESPECIALLY OVER            
THE WEST. ON THE OTHER HAD...WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A SOUTHWEST                
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE SO WILL             
STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.                                                        
DLG                                                                             
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR OPEN             
LAKE FORECAST AND NEARSHORE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE                
RUNS NOW COMING IN LINE WITH LAST EVENINGS NAM FRONTAL                          
POSITION...PLACING IT FURTHER TO THE SE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR            
BY TUESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT             
THIS POSSIBILITY MORE CLOSELY AS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO A N OR NE               
WIND DIRECTION ARE LIKELY IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. IN                         
ADDITION...THIS COOLER N TO NE FLOW WILL NO DOUBT DECREASE THE LOW              
LEVEL STABILITY RESULTING IN LIKELY CHANGES TO WAVE HEIGHT                      
FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME WILL BE HESITANT TO MAKE SUCH AN ABRUPT                 
CHANGE BASED ON A SINGLE GUIDANCE PACKAGE...BUT IF THE 12Z NUMBERS              
LOOK SIMILAR THEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE EAST HALF FORECAST AND            
NEARSHORE FORECAST TO THE NW OF MARQUETTE IS LIKELY WITH THE                    
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.                                                              
BAM                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
1032 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                     
FRONTAL BNDRY EVIDENT IN 14Z MSAS ANALYSIS STRETCHING FM THE SWRN               
CORNER OF MN TO STC TO NR TAYLORS FALLS. LOOPS OF THE KMPX 0.5 DEG              
REFLECTIVITY SHOW A FINE LINE /PRESUMABLY A LOW TO MID LVL                      
REFLECTION OF THE SFC FRONT/ PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE NW...AND AT 15Z              
WAS BISECTING STEARNS COUNTY. THIS REINFORCES THE EXPECTATION THAT              
THE SFC FRONT WILL MAKE SOME NWWRD PROGRESS BEFORE STALLING AGAIN               
ACRS THE NWRN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE FA THIS AFTN AND EVE. VERY                
UNSEASONABLY MOIST LOW LEVELS CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH UPR                
60S TO NR 70 DEG DEW POINTS EVIDENT IN THE 14Z SFC OBS ACRS MUCH                
OF SRN AND ERN MN AND W CNTRL WI. THESE CONDITIONS SHUD NOT CHG                 
APPRECIABLY TDA...AS UPSTREAM OBS IN IA AND SRN WI SHOW SIMILAR                 
CONDITIONS. 12Z KMPX RAOB SHOWS A FAIRLY MOIST LAYER BLO H7...WITH              
A MINOR DRY LAYER /DEW PT DEPRESSION OF 7C/ IN THE INVERSION LAYER              
NR 800MB...SO EVEN DAYTIME MIXING /ONCE THE CLOUDS LIGHTEN A BIT                
IN THE AFTN/ SHUD NOT CAUSE A LRG DROP IN SFC DEW PTS. WITH THE                 
EXPECTATION OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SE OF A RWF/CBG                      
LN...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME TSRA THIS AFTN/EVE.          
S/W...EVIDENT IN W/V IMAGERY OVR FAR NERN KS ATTM...WILL CONT TO                
MOV NEWRD AND APPROACH THE FA TDA. THIS WL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN AND              
BACK THE LO LVL WIND FIELD...AND INCR CONVERGENCE IN THE FRONTAL                
AREA /MAINLY ACRS MY NRN COUNTIES/. RGNL PROFILER DATA ALREADY                  
SHOW H8 WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE /FM THE WSW/. AS THE S/W                 
APPROACHES...THESE WINDS SHUD STRENGTHEN AND BACK TO A MORE S TO                
SW DIRECTION. GREATEST CHC OF TSRA SHUD BE INTO THE EVE/OVRNGT HRS              
WHEN THIS LLJ BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY /MAINLY              
N OF A LN FM STC TO RCX/ DUE TO THE CAPPING INVERSION. WITH 40 TO               
50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR PROGGED AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NR                     
7C/KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO                   
PRODUCE SOME LRG HAIL DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH FRZ LVL /14.1               
KFT/ ON THE 12Z KMPX RAOB.                                                      
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.                                                
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005/                          
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT                                      
THE RUC MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS AN 850 MB LIFTED INDEX FROM MINUS 3 TO            
MINUS 5 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION IS ALSO              
INDICATED BY THE RUC MODEL PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF               
OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS IS GENERALLY                 
CAPPED BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH 14Z WITH RADAR                 
SHOWING A CONVECTIVE CELL JUST EAST OF MSP.                                     
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM SOUTHWEST                  
MINNESOTA TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH            
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER RUNNING THIS             
BOUNDARY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE            
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE                
STATIONARY FRONT BUT SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR               
THE BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A CHANCE OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT                
SINCE THE GFS AND NAM MODELS INDICATED THAT A SHORT WAVE NOW OVER               
KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF              
OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THIS EVENING.                                        
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM               
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE             
WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASES ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND THE             
GFS MODEL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING ACROSS            
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HEAVY RAIN IS                 
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER                  
FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A LOW LEVEL THETA E                
AXIS IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE AREA             
TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST                     
AREA....AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAILING THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES                
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.                                                      
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY                                           
VERY DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND EXITING STRONG SHORT WAVE THU WHICH              
WILL MEAN QUICK SHUT OFF TO PRECIP IN ADDITION TO RAPID ARRIVAL OF              
SFC HIGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY...COOL AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER INTO            
SAT MORN WHEN VERY WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM DAKOTAS. EXACT               
TIMING OF FROPA DIFFERS BY 12 HRS /GFSLR SHOWS SAT NIGHT AND DGEX               
SHOWS SUN/ BUT BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED            
SO ONLY EXPECTING SCT CLDS TO ACCOMPANY IT. DRY WRLY TO NWRLY FLOW              
BEHIND FROPA SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.            
&&                                                                              
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
KAT                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND                                         
1025 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...NO REAL UPDATE CONCERNS TODAY AS FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.              
COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH FORECAST AREA (FA) YESTERDAY HAS                 
STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF A DLH-STC-SW MN LINE. 12Z RUC DEPICTS 850MB           
FRONT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN SFC FRONT...AND EXTREME SE FA MAY                
STILL SEE SHOWERS/THUNDER JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.              
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK ACCORDING TO RUC...WITH FILTERED SUN                      
ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH FORECASTED HIGHS. ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO DECREASE       
MAX T 2F-3F ACROSS TOWNER/CAVALIER COUNTIES WITH THICKER CLOUDS                 
PRESENT.                                                                        
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
TG                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN                                           
1015 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WILL              
PRODUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS                     
AFTERNOON.                                                                      
12Z BNA SOUNDING SHOWED A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN ATOMPSHERIC MOISTURE           
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER. IN ADDITION, THE                
MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE                
ENVIRONMENT, WITH AN LI OF -5, PWA OF 1.50 INCHES, TOTALS INDEX 48              
AND A CAPE OF NEARLY 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION, LATEST RUC SHOWS AN                
AREA OF PRECIPITATION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND HAS                      
ACTUALLY EXPANDED IT OVER THE ONE TARGETED BY THE 00Z GFS.                      
THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR                    
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INTRODUCE A 20% POP TO             
COVER THAT POSSIBILITY.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
19                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
234 PM MDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)                                                           
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING WITH             
A SHALLOW DOME OF COOL AIR APPARENTLY TOO SHALLOW FOR MODELS TO PICK            
UP ON. THIS DOME OF COOL AIR KEPT A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ACROSS THE              
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION AND HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN AND THE GUSTY             
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT BAY. EXPECT THAT BOUNDARY TO WASH OUT AS THE NEXT            
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MOST AREAS WARMED PRETTY WELL ALTHOUGH A FEW                 
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY. WINDS GUSTED               
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ALONG THE                
RIDGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.                                        
TONIGHT SHOULD BEHAVE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WINDS DECREASING               
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT REMAINING GUSTY ACROSS THE HIGHER                   
TERRAIN. SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE NORTHWEST TROF SUGGESTED BY ALL              
MODELS WITH GFS THE SLOWEST. THIS PROMPTED ME TO REDUCE WINDS CLOSER            
TO THE RUC40/80 MODEL WHICH HAVE TENDED TO BE MORE CORRECT                      
RECENTLY. NAM SEEMS TO OVER DO THE WIND SPEEDS. LIKEWISE THE SLOWER             
MOVEMENT KEEPS ANY MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION SO ELIMINATED POPS             
MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WARMED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES             
IN THE EAST MORE IN LINE WITH MET GUIDANCE FIGURING EVEN WITH                   
RADIATIONAL COOLING THE ATMOSPHERE IS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN              
LAST NIGHT AND ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR IS BEING HELD OFF. STAYED WITH           
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON TUESDAY.                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)                                                  
12Z AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM BRING THE FRONT IN A LITTLE FASTER THAN             
PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE                 
NAM. THE FRONT WL PUSH THRU THE SE PLAINS TUE NIGHT...AS THE UPR                
LOW MOVES INTO WRN SD.  THERE WL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOW AND MID                
LVL MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE. WL KEEP ISOLD TO             
SCT POPS ACRS THE AREA INTO LATE NIGHT...AND THEN IT DRIES OUT.  BY             
WED AFTERNOON 700MB TEMPS RANGE FROM -1 TO +4 C ON THE GFS...WITH 0             
TO -3 C ON THE NAM.  THE TEMP DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOW             
UP IN THE MOS WITH POOR AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO MAX TEMPS WED.                
CURRENT MAX T GRID MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING AREAS SO WL MAKE FEW           
IS ANY CHANGES. MODELS SHOW A LITTLE LINGERING MSTR AROUND 700MB                
WED...BUT WL PROBABLY JUST BE SOME CLOUDS AND WL KEEP THE FORECAST              
DRY.                                                                            
AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE AREA THU.  THERE WL ALSO BE A SLIGHT                  
INCREASE IN MSTR THU...AND WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD POPS OVR FAR WRN               
AREAS...BUT FOR NOW WL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREAS DRY.  TEMPS ALOFT             
WARM THU...BUT LOWER LEVEL TEMPS SHOW LITTLE WARMING...SO WL KEEP               
TEMPS COOL. AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT                  
ALLOWING FOR DRY WEA AND WARMER TEMPS. SAT THE RIDGE SHIFTS E AS AN             
UPR TROF MOVES ALONG THE W COAST.  THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROF...            
WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR TO FAR WRN AREAS SO WL ADD SOME ISOLD              
POPS. THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND WEA AS               
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN MAKING SOME DRASTIC CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN.               
HOWEVER THE UKMO IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LOT LIKE THE GFS.  THE                  
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A TROF OVR THE WRN STATES. THE ECMWF MOVES THAT                
TROF ACRS CO SUN...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT BACK OVR UT/AX WITH THE               
LOW CLOSING OFF OVR AZ...GETTING WRAPPED UP AND STAYING OVR AZ THRU             
MON.  THUS...THERE ARE STILL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR             
SUN AND MON.  FOR NOW WL MATCH SURROUNDING WFO/S WITH REGARDS TO                
PCPN AND TEMPS THESE DAYS.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
132 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                       
.AVIATION...                                                                    
FOG POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD                 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN            
AN UNSEASONABLE WARM AIRMASS. SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS            
ARE FORECAST TO DROP NEAR 10MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO ALTHOUGH             
A BIT DRIER THAN THOSE OBSERVED THIS MORNING. WHILE GRADIENT WEAKENS            
SOMEWHAT...A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST                
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL TO DECOUPLE WITH SURFACE BASED                    
INVERSION DEVELOPING...ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD.            
WILL CARRY A MENTION OF MVFR FOG GENERALLY 08Z-15Z...AS WAS                     
PREVALENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.                
OTHERWISE AFTER SCATTERED DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON...ONLY MID/HIGH             
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH WINDS BELOW 12KTS.                                         
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...1154 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                                            
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE                
MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS HAS CLEARED EAST OF THE CWA. ONLY PATCHY                   
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE LEFT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER...ALTHOUGH THETA-E               
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WELL IN THE WARM                 
SECTOR. WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...WITH TEMPERATURES                 
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S. THIS WOULD LEAD TO NEARLY 1500J/KG MIXED             
LAYER CAPE OFF A MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING. HOWEVER GIVEN MID-LEVEL             
WARM ADVECTION...MODIFIED 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS ONLY SUPPORT TO 600J/KG             
MLCAPE. 15Z ACARS/TAMDAR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS MID-LEVEL WARMING...            
INDICATING 700MB TEMPS ALREADY 1-2C WARMER. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A            
MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE. WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...DO NOT EXPECT            
ANY REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO                 
REMOVE PRECIP AND ADJUST CLOUD WORDING...BUT REMAINDER OF THE                   
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 428 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005                             
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT                                                  
MODEST SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.               
WEAKENING 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD BY 12Z MOVES OFF TO THE              
EAST NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND               
THIS TROUGH.                                                                    
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD END CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED              
THUNDER BY SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WEAK 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR                       
CONVERGENCE CLIPPING NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS                    
MORNING. ALSO GOOD 250 MB/850 MB DIVERGENCE/CONVERGENCE COUPLING                
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY NORTH. IN ADDITION...MODEST 305K ISENTROPIC             
ASCENT AIDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW TO              
MID LEVEL OMEGA LIFT THIS MORNING TOO...BEST IN THE NORTH...GIVING              
WAY TO SUBSIDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.                                               
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING OVER AREA THIS MORNING...PEELING OFF TO               
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA            
E RIDGE OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY NORTH...THIS MORNING AS WELL.                     
MODEST INSTABILITY INDICES TODAY WITH RESPECTABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL              
LAPSE RATES AND K INDICES WELL INTO THE 30S...BUT                               
MOISTURE/DYNAMICS FOR SUPPORTING RAINFALL WILL BE CONCENTRATED THIS             
MORNING.                                                                        
WILL ADD MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...AS WILL HAVE ENOUGH                    
CLEARING TO PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH DEW POINTS REMAIN IN            
PLACE.                                                                          
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY                                              
ON TUESDAY A SHEARED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED FROM                  
NEWFOUNDLAND...ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE              
SYSTEM IN EASTERN COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED              
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH ITS EXACT POSITION DEPENDING ON SHORTWAVES             
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THE MAJORITY OF THE                   
MODELS...EXCLUDING THE 00Z/03 NAM...KEEP THIS BOUNDARY AND                      
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.                 
WITH A STRONG TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...FEEL THE NAM IS                  
UNDER DONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE                  
GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL THEREFORE LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION                
WHICH INDICATES SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTH TO LAKE                 
MICHIGAN AND PARTIALLY INTO NORTHWEST LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.                  
WITH SOME MODEST INSTABILITY...CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG...THE TRI-                 
CITIES AREA WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT SEEING THUNDERSTORMS LATE                
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE REST OF THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE              
FORECAST DRY HOWEVER...THINKING THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL                 
DOMINATE WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850MB AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE              
RATES OF ONLY 5.5 C/KM.                                                         
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ASSOCIATED                
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GREAT               
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z/03                     
GFS...ECMWF AND GEM ALL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA              
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD               
OF THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE AS RIDGING OVER THE GULF                   
COAST STATES LIMITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.                
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED ON WEDNESDAY SO HAVE LOWERED                  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. GFS INDICATES ALMOST NO                
CAPE ALONG THE FRONT WITH A THUNDER-LESS LINE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG             
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS FOR                
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL                     
TIMING.                                                                         
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SHOWS 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C ON THURSDAY             
BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG CAA WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20             
MPH WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 40 MPH DOWN TO THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY                
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP               
SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THURSDAY WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION                   
ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT PULLS OUT OF OUR EASTERN                    
COUNTIES. SKIES WILL CLEAR IN AREAS FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE HURON                
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.              
HAVE RAISED THESE TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST                 
WITH MODELS SUGGESTING LIGHT WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT                 
AND SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL STILL NEED                
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FROST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS BUT                   
NEITHER NIGHT PRESENTS IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
MI...NONE.                                                                      
LAKE HURON...NONE.                                                              
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.                                                           
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AVIATION.....BRAVENDER                                                          
UPDATE.......BRAVENDER                                                          
SHORT TERM...DWD                                                                
LONG TERM....KEK                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1139 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
MOISTURE RETURN HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED /BROKEN LOW                           
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF FA. THIS                           
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY                            
WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST PART OF STATE. WAVE AND                             
LIGHT PRECIP HAVE MOVED INTO KANSAS SO WILL REMOVE                              
POPS FROM NORTHWEST AREAS. GFS AND RUC STILL INDICATE                           
SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON                       
BUT WITH WAVE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THINK THAT                                
CLOUDS WILL BE MAIN STORY.                                                      
STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY                         
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. STILL SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT                            
WITH FRONTAL TIMING...BUT APPEARS GFS MAY HAVE BETTER                           
HANDLE ON WESTERN TROUGH AND FRONTAL TIMING. WILL ISSUE                         
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TODAY TO OUTLINE POTENTIAL                            
IMPACTS WITH COLD FRONT.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SIX                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ok