FXUS65 KBYZ 100238 AAA
AFDBIL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
832 PM MDT WED JUN 9 2004

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...

UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST PROVIDING THE AREA WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW.
700MB TEMPERATURES PER SURROUNDING RAOBS INDICATE WARM TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA. SOMUCH OF THE AREA IS LIKELY STILL CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...BUT A FEW STORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
MAY HAVE BEEN SURFACE BASED FOR A SHORT WHILE.  LOOKS LIKE THE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS FORCING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.  THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL STORMS
WITH PEA SIZED HAIL.  JUST RECENTLY COOKE CITY PICKED UP ABOUT AN INCH
OF PEA SIZED HAIL.  EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON PEA SIZED HAIL ALSO WHITENED
THE GROUND IN NYE.  EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE NIGHT...JUST
BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.  THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE.
AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CHANCE OF STORMS MENTIONED IN THE
EASTERN ZONES...THINKING IT MAY BE OVERDONE.  BUT GIVEN THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH DONT FEEL IT
WOULD BE APPROPRIATE TO REMOVE THEM.  NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...

DID NOT CHANGE THINGS THAT MUCH WITH THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. CANADA AT
FIRST IS THE WETTER MODEL WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. DID NOT BUY INTO THAT SEEING THAT THE FLOW WOULD BECOME MORE OR
LESS WESTERLY. WITH TIME...THE FLOW WOULD BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST. THE
GFS DOES SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AGAIN...
WITH ZONAL FLOW BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE...AM RELUCTANT TO ACCEPT
THAT. WITH THAT IN MIND...KEPT THINGS DRY EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTH AND EXTREME WEST. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS...WHILE KEEPING
A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...BROUGHT IN SOME PRECIPITATION
AFFECTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WOULD
RATHER WAIT AND SEE IF THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER RUN OR TWO BEFORE
ACCEPTING THAT POSSIBILITY. DID NOT DO MUCH TINKERING WITH
TEMPERATURES. CHB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/068 050/067 048/067 049/070 048/075 052/079 053/081
    46/T    52/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
LVM 047/064 046/062 039/062 045/068 041/072 045/076 046/072
    66/T    62/T    22/W    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
HDN 054/072 048/071 049/069 049/074 050/076 053/079 054/079
    46/T    52/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
MLS 055/072 053/065 049/067 050/069 051/075 054/077 057/078
    46/T    64/T    32/W    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
4BQ 056/074 050/068 048/072 049/074 049/074 049/079 052/078
    34/T    53/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
BHK 056/071 052/063 046/066 048/067 049/073 049/073 052/074
    46/T    64/T    32/W    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B
SHR 048/070 044/067 043/065 045/070 044/074 047/079 048/081
    44/T    52/T    20/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$