AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL...CORRECTED HEADER                          
835 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
01Z SFC CHART SHOWING WEAK FRONT NEAR A CHI/PIA TO JUST NORTH OF                
KIRK MO LINE. BOUNDARY IS WEAK BUT DOES HAVE QUITE A BIT DRIER AIR              
BEHIND IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OOZE ON INTO THE CWA DURING THE                 
NIGHT WITH LITTLE FAN-FARE. THINK BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR THE             
I-70 CORRIDOR BY MORNING, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS BETWEEN I-70 AND             
I-64, THEN BECOME STATIONARY. RADARS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING. KILX               
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAYBE A SPRINKLE WOULD BE ABOUT IT.                       
OVERALL THE ZONES LOOK PRETTY GOOD THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE AN                  
UPDATE THOUGH...MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING POPS. AM                    
HESITANT TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THOUGH DUE TO             
THE BOUNDARY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER VORT SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN            
ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING             
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE RATHER DRY EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS               
FROM KDVN AND ILK AND ALSO FROM RUC PROGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.                 
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS PROGRESSING                
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED               
SHOWERS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS LOW LEVEL                    
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF                
CWA. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS            
A TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SOME GOOD            
MID LEVEL DRYING AFTER 06Z.                                                     
ON WEDNESDAY...NEXT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN             
HALF OF MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL                   
THERMAL RIDGE TO REAMPLIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF              
SOLAR INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER LOW LEVELS TO GIVE MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY.                   
CONCERN WILL THEN BE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY               
MORNING AS MINNESOTA VORT TRACKS EAST. 80 KNOT UPPER JET ALSO                   
PROGGED TO PROGRESS THROUGH BASE OF THIS TROUGH HELPING TO ENHANCE              
UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM              
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING               
WITH SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE.                 
MODELS AGREE IN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO WILL END               
POPS BY 18Z THURSDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES IDEA OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE              
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES REINFORCING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE               
TROUGH FOR FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECTING ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES               
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE                 
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.                                           
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF               
SHORT WAVE AND SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING. NEXT CONCERN              
WILL BE MORE POTENT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR              
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN               
UPPER FORCING STAYING SOUTH OF CWA...BUT PATTERN DOES SEEM CONDUCIVE            
FOR SOME FRONTAL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.            
WENT WITH TEMPS COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED                
PORTION OF FORECAST WITH BROAD NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN PLACE.                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HALL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
ISSUED BY NWS CHICAGO                                                           
835 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
01Z SFC CHART SHOWING WEAK FRONT NEAR A CHI/PIA TO JUST NORTH OF                
KIRK MO LINE. BOUNDARY IS WEAK BUT DOES HAVE QUITE A BIT DRIER AIR              
BEHIND IT. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO OOZE ON INTO THE CWA DURING THE                 
NIGHT WITH LITTLE FAN-FARE. THINK BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT TO NEAR THE             
I-70 CORRIDOR BY MORNING, POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS BETWEEN I-70 AND             
I-64, THEN BECOME STATIONARY. RADARS ARE QUIET THIS EVENING. KILX               
SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH              
IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. MAYBE A SPRINKLE WOULD BE ABOUT IT.                       
OVERALL THE ZONES LOOK PRETTY GOOD THIS EVENING. WILL ISSUE AN                  
UPDATE THOUGH...MAINLY TO REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING POPS. AM                    
HESITANT TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE SOUTH THOUGH DUE TO             
THE BOUNDARY.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY                                          
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER VORT SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN                 
WISCONSIN WITH LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN            
ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH DURING THE EARLY EVENING             
HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE RATHER DRY EVIDENT IN 12Z RAOBS               
FROM KDVN AND ILK AND ALSO FROM RUC PROGS THROUGH THIS EVENING.                 
HOWEVER...WITH WEAK LOW MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS PROGRESSING                
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR ISOLATED               
SHOWERS TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWER                 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS LOW LEVEL                    
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD HANG UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF                
CWA. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS            
A TREND TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS MODEL TIME/HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW SOME GOOD            
MID LEVEL DRYING AFTER 06Z.                                                     
ON WEDNESDAY...NEXT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHERN             
HALF OF MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL                   
THERMAL RIDGE TO REAMPLIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF              
SOLAR INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD PARTIALLY OFFSET SLIGHTLY                  
COOLER LOW LEVELS TO GIVE MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY.                   
CONCERN WILL THEN BE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY               
MORNING AS MINNESOTA VORT TRACKS EAST. 80 KNOT UPPER JET ALSO                   
PROGGED TO PROGRESS THROUGH BASE OF THIS TROUGH HELPING TO ENHANCE              
UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM              
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING               
WITH SOME DECENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE WITH THIS WAVE.                 
MODELS AGREE IN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SHORT WAVE SO WILL END               
POPS BY 18Z THURSDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES IDEA OF DIGGING SHORT WAVE              
TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES REINFORCING EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE               
TROUGH FOR FRIDAY. THUS...EXPECTING ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVES               
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE                 
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS PERIOD.                                           
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY                                             
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF               
SHORT WAVE AND SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD LOW LEVEL DRYING. NEXT CONCERN              
WILL BE MORE POTENT WAVE ROTATING AROUND BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR              
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MAIN               
UPPER FORCING STAYING SOUTH OF CWA...BUT PATTERN DOES SEEM CONDUCIVE            
FOR SOME FRONTAL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.            
WENT WITH TEMPS COOLER THAN MEX GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED                
PORTION OF FORECAST WITH BROAD NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY IN PLACE.                
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HALL                                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN                                        
935 PM EST TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST TO REMOVE SHOWERS AND JUST GO WITH SPRINKLES.            
RADAR IS CURRENTLY QUIET. LOWER LEVELS OF ATMS ARE DRY...AND BEST               
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD DECREASE/MOVE EAST OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.             
THUS FELT SPRINKLES SHOULD COVER ANY PRECIP...AND RUC/00Z ETA AGREE.            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING OF VARIOUS S/W AND ASSOCIATED             
PRECIP CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A RELATIVELY FAST               
AND SOMEWHAT ZONE FLOW.                                                         
RADAR IS CURENTLY SHOWING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS IL IN AN AREA OF            
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO CROSS THE STATE                    
OVERNIGHT IS STILL IN WI AND IA BUT PROGRESSING SEWD.  DEWPOINTS                
THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL IN THE LOW 30'S. WITH LITTLE PRECIP AHEAD              
OF THE FRONT...WILL KEEP ONLY 20% POPS TONIGHT WITH INCREASED CLOUDS.           
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL OVERALL AGREEMENT FOR WED AND THURSDAY.                   
TONIGHTS WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. A COUPLE OF S/W            
MOVING BY BRING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS                     
WEDNESDAY AND REGION WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  ALL MODELS             
NOW INDICATE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.                
&&                                                                              
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
850 PM EST TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO FRESHEN ZFP WORDING BY REMOVING EARLY              
EVENING POPS. DECIDED TO LEAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES              
UNTIL FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THAT AREA. STILL SOME CLOUDS SEEN ON              
SATELLITE WITH THIS FRONT AND RUC40 GENERATING SOME DECENT 850MB                
OMEGA BEFORE 06Z. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS QUITE DRY AND WITHOUT                  
SIGNIFICANT FORCING JUST DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE               
PCPN OCCURING. DECIDED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR WED BASED ON OBJECTIVE            
GUIDANCE TRENDS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES BEHIND              
COLD FRONT TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORTING WARMER               
TEMPERATURES. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE LAKE EFFECTS ON                     
TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE MORE             
NORTHEAST AND LIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...JUST            
NOT MOVE INLAND AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS GRIDS INDICATED. THUS SBN                   
TEMPERATURE WILL BE WARMER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LINE OF WEAK...PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH TAF SITES.               
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ACTUAL                   
SURFACE FRONT BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH              
TO IMPACT VIS OR CIGS. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ENTIRE                  
PERIOD. BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS CIGS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SCT. ONLY              
SOME HIGH BASED SCT CU EXPECTED WED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER            
10 KTS.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT             
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR MICHIGAN                   
COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. NOT VERY MANY                
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE OVER             
LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. JUST KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS              
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RAIN CHANCES              
WILL END AS DRIER AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO WINDS TONIGHT WILL              
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z               
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND            
THEN DURING THE DAY MOVE IT SOUTH OF THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ACROSS OUR CWA AND                
THEN RISE TO AROUND 60 TOMORROW...EXCEPT AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL BE COOLER.                                                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...OVERALL...EXPECT A COOL AND              
GENERALLY DRY PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR            
SHOWERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT              
PASSES...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED AND A WEAK FRONT...DO             
NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN. AFTER THURSDAY...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY               
AND COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. GFS OF RECENT HAS HAD POOR RUN TO             
RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH IS APPARENT IN MEX MOS FLUCTUATIONS IN BOTH               
TEMPS AND POPS. BUT BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN OF A DEVELOPING TROF                
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A STRONG SFC               
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS PREEMINENT. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS WAS            
SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE WOULD SPREAD AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN DOMINANT            
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC FLOW AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES OF THE               
GFS AND ALSO TREND OF THE GFS TO OVER FORECAST PRECIPITATION IN THE             
NORTHERN PART OF STORM SYSTEM WHEN THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR                    
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER LAYERS...HAVE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. 12Z GFS             
SHOWED VERY COOL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF -4C OR COLDER AT             
850 MB. HAVE HIGH BASICALLY 45 TO 50 THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MATCH                
THESE COOL TEMPS. 12Z GFS EXTENDED WAS EVEN SLOWER WITH MAJOR TROF              
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS RUN FROM LAST NIGHT             
WAS BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN MONDAY...BUT NEW 12Z RUN WAS DRY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN TENDENCY FOR GFS TO BE TOO FAST WITH HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS THIS REASONING              
SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE AFTER TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
LASHLEY/BML/SKIP                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA                                          
949 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...WITH A VORT                   
MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND MCS OVER SOUTHERN LA. STORMS                   
IN THE DALLAS AREA ARE DECREASING WITH THE LOST OF HEATING OF                   
THE DAY...HOWEVER RUC AND NEW ETA...HINT AT SOME DEVELOPMENT                    
OVER NORTHEAST TX LATER AND THEN SPREADING EAST. THEREFORE                      
DID NOT CHANGE RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST...BUT LOWERED RAIN CHANCES                
GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO ELD. ADJUSTED TEMPS IN A                   
FEW LOCATIONS. ADDED FOG TO NORTHEAST TX AND EXTREME WESTERN                    
LOUISIANA...WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.                  
UPDATED GRIDS OUT SHORTLY.                                                      
IV                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
SHV  54  74  56  77 /  40  50  30   0                                           
MLU  52  74  57  77 /  20  50  30   0                                           
TXK  52  72  56  75 /  40  60  30   0                                           
TYR  55  74  56  77 /  40  30  30   0                                           
LFK  55  79  59  80 /  20  30  30   0                                           
&&                                                                              
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
AR...NONE.                                                                      
LA...NONE.                                                                      
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   la                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
850 PM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
FORECAST ON TARGET TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF LOWER                 
CLOUDS. 18Z ETA LIKE THE 12Z RUN WITH PLENTY OF 925 MOISTURE ACROSS             
THE CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT OBS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS...AND 21Z RUC                
MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT SITUATION WITH ONLY APN AND SSM                  
REPORTING THE LOWER CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH              
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST LOWER             
MICHIGAN BY AROUND 03Z. WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE                
THUMB AS THIS WILL BE THE MOSTLY LIKELY SPOT FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS TO            
RETURN. PLUS WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD AID            
SC DEVELOPMENT.                                                                 
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO TURN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...SO            
WILL HAVE TO TIME THE WINDS IN THE FORECAST A LITTLE SLOWER TOO.                
TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT WARMER. BUT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY                    
SKIES...WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID              
AND UPPER 30S...EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH FORECAST LOW TEMPS...SO NO                
CHANGES THERE.                                                                  
RBP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
A COUPLE OF ISSUES HERE TO RESOLVE...JUST ABOUT ALL OF THEM MINOR.              
DESPITE SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS ON KGRR RADAR...CEILINGS AT 7K FEET             
TELL THE STORY WITH ONLY SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST.              
THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN AREA OF ENHANCED THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST             
ADVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH                 
ABOUT 00Z THEN SLIDE EAST TAKING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY             
SCT -SHRA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH...OTHERWISE DRY.             
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE WITH CLOUDS. MESOETA IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN                
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS LOW PASSES TO OUR            
EAST AND COLD FRONT DROPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. CURRENTLY MESOETA IS               
OVERDONE ON RH FIELD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN. NGM               
AND RUC SUGGEST BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS TO OUR EAST.               
WILL CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THUMB TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY                    
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
EXPECT WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO              
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY.             
TEMPERATURES IN WI WARMING NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS INTO             
THE 60S...AND LIKELY TO HIT 70 BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. HOWEVER...A              
COUPLE OF FACTORS TO CONSPIRE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN HERE                           
TOMORROW...850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5C LOWER THAN WI...HIGH OVERHEAD                  
LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXING...AND FINALLY LIGHT 950MB WINDS SHOULD                   
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK LAKE BREEZE.                             
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED               
SYSTEM SOME...ENOUGH TO REMOVE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NW CWA                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA LOOKS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS              
IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND LIFT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND...WILL              
LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION. LIMITING FACTOR AS FAR AS PRECIP IS                   
CONCERNED PER ETA...IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH LOW PUSHING THROUGH                
CWA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL CARRY CHANCE OF                    
SHRA-BOTH ETA AND GFS THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. AS LOW PULLS              
OUT...ETA WANTS TO SWING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF ACROSS THE                          
REGION...WHILE GFS STREAMS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS               
CWA. WILL LINGER THURSDAY PRECIP INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THEN HOLD              
DRY.                                                                            
EXTENDED...                                                                     
WILL THERE BE SNOWFLAKES ON YOUR EASTER BONNET. THAT AMONG OTHER                
ITEMS CONFRONTS US HERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EVOLVING LONG              
WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF US DURING THE PERIOD...WITH GFS CUTTING              
OFF SYSTEM INTO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
DOMINATING FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH              
PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS CANADA...PROVIDING CWA WITH DRY NORTHEAST              
FLOW. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA AS THE HIGH SWINGS THROUGH              
CANADA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C SUNDAY /EASTER/ MORNING.              
CLIMO IS AROUND 1C. GFS HAS HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PRECIP CHANCES             
ACROSS CWA...WITH CURRENT GFS/CANADIAN PRECIP ENSEMBLES OFFERING                
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT                 
NOTE...THAT IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY ON                
EASTER. MOVING INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STILL DIFFERENCES IN                
MODELS...AND AMONG MODELS. GFS PUSHES POTENT SURFACE LOW RIGHT                  
THROUGH CWA /YESTERDAY/S GFS HAD LOW NEAR BOSTON...LATEST 12Z GFS               
NOW PROMOTING EAST COAST LOW-STAY TUNED./...WHILE ETA-XX BY                     
EXTRAPOLATION ARGUES FOR A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY/S               
GFS. GFS PRECIP ENSEMBLES DO POINT TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR                  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CALL FOR CHANCE                     
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY...THEN ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH                 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL IN THE PICTURE...WILL HOLD TO ONLY               
CHANCE POPS. &&                                                                 
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
OKEEFE                                                                          
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
650 PM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE NOW THAT THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST                   
MICHIGAN. JUST NEED TO UPDATE THE WORDING.                                      
RBP                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
A COUPLE OF ISSUES HERE TO RESOLVE...JUST ABOUT ALL OF THEM MINOR.              
DESPITE SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS ON KGRR RADAR...CEILINGS AT 7K FEET             
TELL THE STORY WITH ONLY SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST.              
THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN AREA OF ENHANCED THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST             
ADVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH                 
ABOUT 00Z THEN SLIDE EAST TAKING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY             
SCT -SHRA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH...OTHERWISE DRY.             
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE WITH CLOUDS. MESOETA IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN                
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS LOW PASSES TO OUR            
EAST AND COLD FRONT DROPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. CURRENTLY MESOETA IS               
OVERDONE ON RH FIELD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN. NGM               
AND RUC SUGGEST BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS TO OUR EAST.               
WILL CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THUMB TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY                    
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
EXPECT WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO              
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY.             
TEMPERATURES IN WI WARMING NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS INTO             
THE 60S...AND LIKELY TO HIT 70 BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. HOWEVER...A              
COUPLE OF FACTORS TO CONSPIRE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN HERE                           
TOMORROW...850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5C LOWER THAN WI...HIGH OVERHEAD                  
LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXING...AND FINALLY LIGHT 950MB WINDS SHOULD                   
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK LAKE BREEZE.                             
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED               
SYSTEM SOME...ENOUGH TO REMOVE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NW CWA                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA LOOKS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS              
IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND LIFT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND...WILL              
LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION. LIMITING FACTOR AS FAR AS PRECIP IS                   
CONCERNED PER ETA...IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH LOW PUSHING THROUGH                
CWA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL CARRY CHANCE OF                    
SHRA-BOTH ETA AND GFS THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. AS LOW PULLS              
OUT...ETA WANTS TO SWING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF ACROSS THE                          
REGION...WHILE GFS STREAMS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS               
CWA. WILL LINGER THURSDAY PRECIP INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THEN HOLD              
DRY.                                                                            
EXTENDED...                                                                     
WILL THERE BE SNOWFLAKES ON YOUR EASTER BONNET. THAT AMONG OTHER                
ITEMS CONFRONTS US HERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EVOLVING LONG              
WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF US DURING THE PERIOD...WITH GFS CUTTING              
OFF SYSTEM INTO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
DOMINATING FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH              
PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS CANADA...PROVIDING CWA WITH DRY NORTHEAST              
FLOW. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA AS THE HIGH SWINGS THROUGH              
CANADA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C SUNDAY /EASTER/ MORNING.              
CLIMO IS AROUND 1C. GFS HAS HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PRECIP CHANCES             
ACROSS CWA...WITH CURRENT GFS/CANADIAN PRECIP ENSEMBLES OFFERING                
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT                 
NOTE...THAT IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY ON                
EASTER. MOVING INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STILL DIFFERENCES IN                
MODELS...AND AMONG MODELS. GFS PUSHES POTENT SURFACE LOW RIGHT                  
THROUGH CWA /YESTERDAY/S GFS HAD LOW NEAR BOSTON...LATEST 12Z GFS               
NOW PROMOTING EAST COAST LOW-STAY TUNED./...WHILE ETA-XX BY                     
EXTRAPOLATION ARGUES FOR A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY/S               
GFS. GFS PRECIP ENSEMBLES DO POINT TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR                  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CALL FOR CHANCE                     
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY...THEN ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH                 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL IN THE PICTURE...WILL HOLD TO ONLY               
CHANCE POPS. &&                                                                 
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
OKEEFE                                                                          
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI                                             
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                 
330 PM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TNGT AND WED)...                                                   
18Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND THE RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED NW                
FLOW EXTENDING FROM A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA TO A TROUGH OVER THE            
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SHRTWV THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO LOWER MI THIS                   
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBLE               
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV                   
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND              
EASTERN LOWER MI. THIS BAND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS             
THE SHRTWV MOVES CLOSER. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WAS A 1008             
MB SURFACE LOW WHICH AT 18Z WAS LOCATED NEAR SAGINAW BAY. BEHIND THE            
SURFACE LOW AND IN SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY                
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S OVER NORTHERN WI AND 50S IN WESTERN LOWER              
MI. PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HIGH PRESSURE NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD             
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE DAKOTAS. FURTHER TO THE                   
WEST...ANOTHER SHRTWV WAS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA.                         
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW AND SHRTWV CONTINUE TO HEAD TO THE SE              
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECTING SKIES TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR THIS             
EVENING. ETA/GFS THEN INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH OVER MN WILL               
MOVE OVER LOWER MI 09Z AND 12Z. WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN               
THE MID TO UPPER 30S...DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AND LIGHT                        
WINDS...WILL ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST AS TEMPS             
FALL DOWN TO THE DEWPOINTS.                                                     
WEDNESDAY...SHRTWV CURRENTLY IN ALBERTA MOVES TO THE FARGO AREA BY              
12Z WED AND TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z THU PER ETA/GFS. OVER               
LOWER MI HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. SUNSHINE            
DURING THE MORNING WILL HELP MIX OUT ANY FOG THAT FORMED. THEN AS               
THE SHRTWV APPROACHES...EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE            
AFTERNOON (SOME OF WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER            
THE DAKOTAS). NONETHELESS...WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1C            
AND SOME SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR            
50.                                                                             
AJ                                                                              
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
STRONG SHRTWV NOW OVER ALBERTA PROGGED TO MOVE ESE AND REACH THE UPR            
GREAT LKS LATE ON WED. ALTHOUGH SHRTWV CUTOFF FM ANY SGNFT MSTR                 
INFLOW...AXIS OF HIER PWAT ABV 0.5 INCH IN SLY FLOW AHD OF THE                  
SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING SFC TROF FCST UNDER 12HR H5 HGT FALLS APRCHG                
100M WED NGT. DESPITE VIGOROUS DYNAMICS...DRY AIR APPEARS TO WIN OUT            
WITH LLVL ELY FLOW AS ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS INDICATE DRY LYR UP TO H8              
HANGING IN THRU 12Z. HAVE OPTED TO PUSH BACK ARRIVAL TIMING OF PCPN             
UNTIL CLOSE TO AFTER MIDNGT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA WHEN SOME               
UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX/BETTER DVPA/H85-5                
QVECTOR CNVGC HAVE SOME TIME TO SATURATE DRY ANTECEDENT AIR. GFS/ETA            
FCST H100-85 THKNS/MOS SUG PCPN WL BE RA...BUT WL MAINTAIN A MIX                
WITH SN OVER FAR NRN LWR AND THE ERN U.P. TO ACCOUNT FOR EVAP                   
COOLING. IN GENERAL...TEMPS WL REACH THEIR LOWEST LVLS FAIRLY EARLY             
IN THE NGT...WITH READINGS RISING LATER UNDER WAD/THICKENING CLDS.              
ETA/GFS SHOW DISAGREEMENT ON THU WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY MSTR                
RIBBON PUSHES TO THE E. ETA IS MORE ZONAL WITH FCST FLOW ALF...SO               
DRY SURGE FCST TO PUSH EWD MUCH FASTER THAN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...              
WHICH INDICATES A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AND FA REMAINING IN LEFT EXIT             
OF SUPPORTING JET MAX LONGER. GIVEN TREND TOWARD A HIER AMPLITUDE               
TROF IN THE E AND STRENGTH OF SHRTWV...WL GO WITH THE SLOWER GFS                
SOLN AND MAINTAIN POPS THRU THE DAY THU. LIKELY POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED             
IN THE MRNG PER GFS MOS ONCE THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS OVERCOME              
DRY AIR. UNDERCUT GFS MOS FOR TMAX GIVEN WDSPRD CLD COVER...CLOSER              
TO LWR NGM MOS. AS MAIN UPR JET/SHRTWV SLIDES SEWD THU NGT...GFS                
SHOWS MSTR RIBBON/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/H7 UVV GRDLY DSPTG. LLVL DRY              
ADVCTN FM THE NE WL ALSO AID COLLAPSE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN. AS                  
H100-85 THKNS DROPS WITH COLD/DRY ADVCTN...LINGERING PCPN WL TEND TO            
CHG TO MAINLY SN. BUT ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WL ALSO DCRS PCPN CHCS.              
EXTENDED MODELS POINT TOWARD MEAN TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA WITH                   
CONTINUED BLO NORMAL TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC HI PRES BLDS                
ACRS SCNTRL CAN...MAINTAINING A COOL NNE FLOW INTO THE UPR GRT LKS.             
INSTABILITY -SHSN MAY LINGER ON SAT INTO SUN WITH H85-7 THERMAL TROF            
UPSTREAM. HOWEVER...DRY AIRMASS ALF AND TREND TOWARD INCRSG ACYC                
FLOW SHUD MITIGATE PCPN COVG/INTENSITY WITH H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC AND              
STRG SUBSIDENCE FCST. CONSIDERED DROPPING POPS ALTOGETHER FOR THESE             
PDS. PCPN MAY GET A BOOST ON SUN AS SHRTWV PASSES. 00Z OPERATIONAL              
GFS HINTS AT DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPER LO PRES IN THE OH VALLEY EARLY               
NEXT WEEK UNDER INCRSG NEGATIVE TILT UPR TROF...BUT WL TEND TOWARD              
THE WEAKER ECWMF SOLN THAT SHOWS THE SFC LO MUCH FARTHER SE PER NCEP            
DISCUSSION AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 06Z GFS ALSO SUPPORT THE                  
WEAKER...FARTHER SE TRACK. SO...LWR POPS THAN INDICATED BY 00Z GFS              
MOS FOR NEXT MON WITH A DRY DAY ON TAP. BUT A MORE CYC FLOW BY NEXT             
TUE UNDER FALLING UPR HGTS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER UPR SHRTWV               
JUSTIFIES CHC POPS THEN. TEMPS APPEAR LO ENUF FOR INSTABILITY SHSN.             
COORDINATED WITH MQT/GRR.                                                       
KC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.APX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
325 PM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
A COUPLE OF ISSUES HERE TO RESOLVE...JUST ABOUT ALL OF THEM MINOR.              
DESPITE SOME IMPRESSIVE RETURNS ON KGRR RADAR...CEILINGS AT 7K FEET             
TELL THE STORY WITH ONLY SPRINKLES HITTING THE GROUND TO OUR WEST.              
THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN AREA OF ENHANCED THETA-E ADVECTION. BEST             
ADVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH                 
ABOUT 00Z THEN SLIDE EAST TAKING PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY             
SCT -SHRA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH...OTHERWISE DRY.             
OTHER ISSUE WILL BE WITH CLOUDS. MESOETA IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN                
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS LOW PASSES TO OUR            
EAST AND COLD FRONT DROPS IN BEHIND THE LOW. CURRENTLY MESOETA IS               
OVERDONE ON RH FIELD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NW LOWER MICHIGAN. NGM               
AND RUC SUGGEST BULK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PASS TO OUR EAST.               
WILL CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THUMB TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY                    
ELSEWHERE.                                                                      
EXPECT WHATEVER CLOUDS ARE AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING TO GIVE WAY TO              
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS A LITTLE TRICKY.             
TEMPERATURES IN WI WARMING NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS INTO             
THE 60S...AND LIKELY TO HIT 70 BEFORE THE DAY IS DONE. HOWEVER...A              
COUPLE OF FACTORS TO CONSPIRE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN HERE                           
TOMORROW...850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5C LOWER THAN WI...HIGH OVERHEAD                  
LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXING...AND FINALLY LIGHT 950MB WINDS SHOULD                   
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK LAKE BREEZE.                             
NEXT ISSUE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED               
SYSTEM SOME...ENOUGH TO REMOVE LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES FOR NW CWA                  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ETA LOOKS TO BE THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE MODELS              
IN TERMS OF STORM TRACK AND LIFT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND...WILL              
LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION. LIMITING FACTOR AS FAR AS PRECIP IS                   
CONCERNED PER ETA...IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH LOW PUSHING THROUGH                
CWA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. WILL CARRY CHANCE OF                    
SHRA-BOTH ETA AND GFS THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT RAIN. AS LOW PULLS              
OUT...ETA WANTS TO SWING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF ACROSS THE                          
REGION...WHILE GFS STREAMS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS               
CWA. WILL LINGER THURSDAY PRECIP INTO THURSDAY EVENING...THEN HOLD              
DRY.                                                                            
EXTENDED...                                                                     
WILL THERE BE SNOWFLAKES ON YOUR EASTER BONNET. THAT AMONG OTHER                
ITEMS CONFRONTS US HERE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN EVOLVING LONG              
WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF US DURING THE PERIOD...WITH GFS CUTTING              
OFF SYSTEM INTO UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE                  
PERIOD.                                                                         
DOMINATING FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE STRONG ARCTIC HIGH              
PRESSURE THAT WILL CROSS CANADA...PROVIDING CWA WITH DRY NORTHEAST              
FLOW. COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE CWA AS THE HIGH SWINGS THROUGH              
CANADA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8C SUNDAY /EASTER/ MORNING.              
CLIMO IS AROUND 1C. GFS HAS HAD DIFFICULTY RESOLVING PRECIP CHANCES             
ACROSS CWA...WITH CURRENT GFS/CANADIAN PRECIP ENSEMBLES OFFERING                
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY...BUT                 
NOTE...THAT IF GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SOME SNOWFLAKES COULD FLY ON                
EASTER. MOVING INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD...STILL DIFFERENCES IN                
MODELS...AND AMONG MODELS. GFS PUSHES POTENT SURFACE LOW RIGHT                  
THROUGH CWA /YESTERDAY/S GFS HAD LOW NEAR BOSTON...LATEST 12Z GFS               
NOW PROMOTING EAST COAST LOW-STAY TUNED./...WHILE ETA-XX BY                     
EXTRAPOLATION ARGUES FOR A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY/S GFS.          
GFS PRECIP ENSEMBLES DO POINT TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY                
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CALL FOR CHANCE RAIN/SNOW                  
MONDAY...THEN ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE              
UNCERTAINTY STILL IN THE PICTURE...WILL HOLD TO ONLY CHANCE POPS.               
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
OKEEFE                                                                          
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
1155 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE SENT OUT...MAINLY TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. FORECAST LOOKS              
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF               
THE CWA...AS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST THOUGH MOST             
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING NOW BEGINNING TO WORK INTO WESTERN                   
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED WELL INTO THE            
50S WITH SUNSHINE ACROSS WISCONSIN. GOOD DRYING INDICATED ON THE                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WORKING INTO THE U.P.                                       
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS                 
EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SOME SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES               
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF              
THE CWA BEFORE THE WEAKENING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SAGS SOUTH.                  
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES REGION...BANKING ON SOME SUNSHINE LATE                    
IN THE DAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S.  THE              
TOUGHEST CALL FOR TEMPS REMAINS ALONG THE M-59 CORRIDOR AND THUMB               
REGION WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE LONGEST. EVEN WITH              
CLOUDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO MAKE AT LEAST 50 DEGREES LATE TODAY AS THE             
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.                                             
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE OVER IN THE TRI-CITIES REGION            
BY 4 PM...WITH THE DRYING TREND SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF               
THE AFTERNOON.                                                                  
SF                                                                              
.DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 AM...                                                 
SHORT WAVE TROF WAS APPROACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND                     
APPEARANCE ON THE H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING IS LESS THAN                      
IMPRESSIVE.  NOT MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH SATELLITE DERIVED                
WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS OR LESS.  RADAR MOSAICS SHOW AN                     
INCREASING AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE DOOR PENINSULA INTO THE               
U.P. THANKS TO AN AXIS OF LLJ/THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT             
295-300K SURFACES PER THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE RUC.  THIS WILL              
BE OUR FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORT              
WAVES IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THIS               
WEEK.                                                                           
PWAT/S ACROSS THE STATE ARE QUITE LOW PER 00Z RAOBS, ON THE ORDER OF            
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.  AS UPSTREAM PRECIP APPROACHES THE DRY AIR                
MASS, CEILINGS ARE DROPPING BUT NOT MUCH LESS THAN 4500 FEET WITH               
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY AT THE 10SM.  SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF                  
PRECIP IT APPEARS PLENTY OF VIRGA AS GRB 00Z SOUNDING IS QUITE                  
DRY... EVEN DRIER ACROSS ILLINOIS.  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE              
APPROACH OF THIS TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BUT PRECIP CHANCES              
APPEAR TO BE ON THE DECREASE.  CASE AND POINT, THETA-E ADVECTION                
FIELDS BECOME DIS-ORIENTED LATER THIS MORNING AS DOES OMEGA PATTERN             
WEAKENING.  HOURLY BUFKIT PROFILES VIA THE ETA SHOW DRY AIR HANGING             
ON BELOW 5K FEET THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS                    
INDICATING GOOD UPGLIDE AND CPD/S LESS THAN 10MBS.  FOR CONSISTENCY,            
AND AFTER COLLABORATION, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS            
NORTH OF I69 WHERE EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAINS DEEP ENOUGH               
AND DROP OFF THE POPS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE BORDER WHERE ISOLATED            
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE GRIDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE AS            
UPSTREAM HIGHS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WERE INTO THE 70S (THEY DID             
HAVE MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMAL FIELDS WERE WARMER).  WHILE WE WILL              
NOT REACH THOSE VALUES, THINKING WAS TO RAISE OUR GRIDS CLOSER THE              
MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH SUPPORTS AROUND 60F.                                 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR WORK INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS              
THE SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING.  SOUNDINGS SUPPORT             
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT BUT, ONCE AGAIN, THEY HINT AT LOW LEVEL                 
STRATUS DEVELOPING/ADVECTING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.  ETA40 BOUNDARY            
LAYER AND 30AGL CPD/S DROP BELOW 10MBS TOWARD 06Z WITH NORTHWEST                
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AROUND 10 KNOTS.  SO IT SEEMS FOG SHOULD NOT BE             
THE ISSUE, BUT LOW CLOUDS WHERE WE MIGHT ON THE BORDERLINE OF                   
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.  WE WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A MOCLOUDY SKY                
EVOLVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT.                       
ILL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON                  
WEDNESDAY WHERE ANY LOW CLOUDS BURNING OFF LEAVING BY SOME                      
SUNSHINE.  MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S             
AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE, THIS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE WHICH WOULD AGREE             
CLOSER THE MAV/S AND SOME BLEND OF THE MET/S.                                   
HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT SYSTEM IN OUR NORTHWEST FLOW IS ANYONE/S                 
GUESS WITH MODELS CONSENSUS SHOWING CLOUDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY                 
NIGHT.  THE GFS POINTS TOWARD TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF LIFT THURSDAY               
WHICH BISECTS THE CWA.  THE ETA IS MORE CONCENTRATED TOWARD THE                 
NORTHERN WAVE WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE GIVEN LOCATION OF UPPER JET.               
THEN THERE IS THE ETA-XX, WHICH HAS DONE WELL OF LATE, WEAKENS THE              
NORTHERN WAVE IN FAVOR OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OHIO                  
VALLEY.  GIVEN A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURE                  
PROFILES, WE WILL LEAVE CURRENTS GRIDS INTACT WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE               
NORTH OF M59.                                                                   
LOOKING AHEAD...PLENTY TO WATCH FOR AS WE AWAIT TO SEE HOW PATTERN              
EVOLVES WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS AND                
GULF OF MEXICO BECOMING ENTRAINED.  LATEST ECMWF/GFS/ETA-XX/GEM KEEP            
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND FAVOR THE EAST COAST.              
APRIL DOES HAVE ITS SURPRISES AND WE WILL WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE                
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
904 PM EDT TUE APR  6 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
ONLY CHANGES THAT WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO REFRESH              
THE WORDING TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF EVENING. UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT              
ILN SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WHICH BOTH THE RUC AND THE MESOETA               
BRING INTO OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO WILL STICK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY            
SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY RUNNING CLOSE TO                    
FORECAST VALUES AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ON TRACK...SO WILL LEAVE             
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
TONIGHT-WED: HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT & ENSUING            
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER DEWPOINTS STARTING THIS                
EVENING. WEAK WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS NC EARLY              
WED MORNING & INTRODUCE SOME VERY MILD AIR WITH TRAJECTORIES                    
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED. FAVOR               
LOWS TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN THE LIGHT              
SURFACE WINDS & JUST PATCHY CLOUDS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT            
HIGHS TOMORROW TO GET WELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BASED ON                   
THICKNESSES & 850 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPS                    
UPSTREAM.                                                                       
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT: CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST                
PLAINS OPENS UP AND FILLS LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS IT HEADS EAST              
WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE DEVELOPING OVER NC. HOWEVER THE UPGLIDE IS              
WEAK AS IS ANY OTHER FORCING FOR LIFT. WITH MOST OF THE PVA TO OUR              
SOUTH AND UPPER JET DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF PRESENTING A CHANCE OF            
GULF CONVECTION WHICH MAY LIMIT QPF OVER CENTRAL NC... PRECIP                   
PROBABILITIES IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THU THROUGH THU EVENING                
STILL LOOK GOOD. MODELS DEPICT ENOUGH WARMING IN THE MID LAYERS TO              
LIMIT INSTABILITY... SO WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER FOR NOW. WILL             
RAISE TEMPS WED NIGHT A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT NUMBERS BUT FEW                
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHERWISE.                                                  
FRI: DEEP NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL BRING DRIER            
AIR... HOWEVER THE COOL PUNCH IS WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER                
DAMPENING WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS WEAK RIDGING OVER             
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL... NEAR 70 TO THE               
LOWER 70S. -GIH                                                                 
SAT THROUGH TUE: SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY             
TO THE SOUTH AND LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. LACK             
OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BRIEF DURATION OF SW FLOW UPGLIDE LATE               
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT.                 
LULL ON SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS OVER THE NATIONS            
MID-SECTION. AMPLIFIED FLOW FINALLY PROVIDES DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE             
SOUTHEAST... AS INVERTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO            
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER                
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  -BL                                                        
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DGS                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
950 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.PUBLIC...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS ALLOWING FOR               
THIS CIRRUS HERE AND THERE ACRS THE AREA...TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE                
RATHER DRY CONDS UNDER THE LARGE HIGH PRES DOME SLIDING OVER THE SE             
CONUS. MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE                
NICELY TO FCSTD VALUES...PARTICULARLY AS WINDS VEER TO SELY BY MID              
AFTN AS ADVERTISED ON THE RUC AND WSETA. 06Z MAV TEMPS STILL A TOUCH            
COOL. WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC WORDING CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES AS               
ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK ON TRACK.                                            
&&                                                                              
.FIRE WEATHER...TRENDS AND TIMING OF LOWEST RH VALUES LOOK ON TRACK.            
WILL CONTINUE IDEA OF NO RFW OR FWW AS WINDS WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA             
BUT WILL LEAVE HEADLINE/COMMENTS AS IS. NO UPDATE NEEDED.                       
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...PRESENTLY A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE                 
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR...AROUND 5 KNOTS OVER               
THE GEORGIA WATERS. WILL UPDATE THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AND                   
CHARLESTON HARBOR TO BUMP UP WINDS TO NORTHEAST 15 KNOTS. STILL                 
EXPECTING A QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE                  
GEORGIA WATERS WILL CHANGE MORNING FORECAST OF VARIABLE 5 KNOTS TO              
NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS. EXPECTING A QUICK SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST THERE IN               
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.                                                          
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JPC/AUSTIN                                                                      
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX                                          
910 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA INDICATE SHOWERS AND A FEW                    
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTY. SPECIFICALLY...                 
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM UPPER-LEVEL                  
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WILL MAINTAIN               
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF                 
TONIGHT AND MOST OF TOMORROW. BASED ON THIS DATA AND ON LATEST RUC              
MODEL DATA...SENT AN UPDATE TO REMOVE FIRST PERIOD POPS FROM THE                
HEARTLAND AND ADJUST FIRST AND SECOND PERIOD CLOUDS AND WINDS.                  
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.                                                   
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...                  
SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CUMULUS IN THE              
BIG COUNTRY MORE DEVELOPED AND ENHANCED THAN FURTHER SOUTH...BEING              
MORE UNSTABLE NEAR THE UPPER LOW...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER                      
DEVELOPING NORTH OF SWEETWATER. STILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME                 
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SPC SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK NORTH OF ANSON TO                
BROWNWOOD LINE. MAY SEE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A             
DISTURBANCE ON WEST SIDE OF UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.             
UPPER LOW OVER IN PANHANDLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY...             
WITH NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS BRINGING IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO           
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS CONTINUING IN THE            
BIG COUNTRY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NOT              
FAR SOUTH HOWEVER...RETURNING ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON CAPES OF               
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON                    
THURSDAY...AND ON FRIDAY WITH A DRYLINE SETUP. STRONG COLD FRONT                
MOVES INTO THE THROUGH CWA ON SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH                
APPROACHES THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVES OVER MONDAY. KEPT            
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS MAY             
NEED TO EXTEND THEM INTO MONDAY AS 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY               
SLOWER.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NONE.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
23/HUBER                                                                        
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO                                      
338 AM MDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...KGJX RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS              
STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY THIS                    
MORNING. BELIEVE IT/S DUE TO WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE                   
AREA...BETWEEN CLOSED LOW IN SRN NV AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN                 
PLAINS. RUC SHOWS DIV/CONV COUPLET WEAKENING AFT 12Z...SO EXPECT                
SCT PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO ISOLD THIS MORNING...BEFORE PICKING UP             
AGAIN THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING.                                           
AT FIRST LOOK...SCENARIO SHAPING UP TO BE SIMILAR TO STORM THAT                 
AFFECTED THE AREA THIS PAST WEEKEND...THOUGH LENGTHY DURATION NOT               
INDICATED THIS TIME AROUND. ETA/GFS TAKE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN NV TO              
CNTL AZ TODAY...THEN E INTO NM ON THU. DEEP POTENTIAL INSTABILITY               
TODAY...AND EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN AS THE INSTABILITY               
REALIZED WITH HEATING. BEST DYNAMIC LIFT SHOULD BE SE UT/SW CO AS LOW           
DROPS INTO AZ WHERE HIGHEST POPS LOCATED. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT               
WITH SFC DEWPTS 35-45 F AND PWATER FROM 00Z SOUNDING AROUND .50 INCH.           
STORMS SLOW MOVING AS WEAK FLOW REGIME CONTINUES...WITH LOCALLY MOD-            
HVY RAIN POSSIBLE 4-CORNERS AREA.                                               
MOIST S-SE FLOW WED NIGHT-THU MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE OF PCPN                  
FOCUSED ON SAN JUANS LOWER ELEV OF 4-CORNERS...THOUGH 700 MB WINDS              
FORECAST 10 MPH OR LESS. 700 MB FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO THE SW THU AFTN.            
VORT LOBE ROTATES INTO SW CO FOR ADDED LIFT THU MORNING WITH                    
INSTABILITY CONTINUING THU AFTN. HAVE UPPED POPS GRIDS TO HIGH CHANCE           
FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT AND THU. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LOW MOVING E THU           
NIGHT...WITH SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW THEN BRINGING CHANCE OF PCPN AND              
COOLER TEMPS TO MAINLY THE NORTH THU NIGHT.                                     
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY)...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD                    
AGREEMENT WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OVER              
THE MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS A BIT SKETCHY             
AS EC A BIT SLOWER...UKMET FARTHER WEST AND TRENDING TOWARD CLOSING             
OFF SYSTEM.                                                                     
GFS IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS WITH VIGOROUS WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD              
ACROSS THE CWFA FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RUN TO                 
RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GOOD WITH THE GFS AND DIFFERENCES WITH                 
OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT EXTREME. FOR THESE REASONS GFS THE                
PREFERRED MODEL AND WILL BASE EXTENDED FORECAST ON THIS SOLUTION.               
FRIDAY-MONDAY: AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...UNSETTLED AND COOLER PRETTY WELL           
SUMS UP THE FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS           
DROPS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWFA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY            
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH ALREADY MOIST LOWER            
ATMOSPHERE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS HINTS AT               
SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF THE               
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE FIRST PUSH OF COOLER AIR. REINFORCING SHOT           
OF COOLER AIR INDICATED FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SO CHANCES                 
REMAIN GOOD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...WITH MORE               
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE VALLEYS.                                             
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: PACIFIC TROF WILL BUILD RIDGE OVER THE REGION BY             
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...CARRIED WARMING TREND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.              
&&                                                                              
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
.CO...NONE.                                                                     
.UT...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
JAD/NL                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL                                             
500 AM CDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
IN THE NEAR TERM, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS THE RECENT COLD                    
FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND ALIGNED WEST-TO-EAST                      
BISECTING PORTIONS OF THE SRN CWA. THE FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE                  
FSL RUC-20 AND ETA TO MIX NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE WRN TWO                    
THIRDS OF THE CWA ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS TO BE                      
REALIZED, BUT NOT AS WARM AS YESTERDAY. THE PROGGED MOTION                      
APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT ISALLOBARIC TRENDS. A                       
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT                    
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL S/WV TROUGH THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF NRN               
IL. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THE LOW- AND MID-LVL KINEMATIC AND                     
THERMO FIELDS SUPPORT THE INHERITED HIGHER SHRA POPS ACROSS THE                 
NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE SHRA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA AROUND               
SUNRISE THR.                                                                    
HAVE FOLLOWED THE ETA AND EC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED                 
AS THE GFS/UKMET/GEM CONTINUE TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE WITH THE                    
PHASING OF THE UPR-LVL LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER THE TX PHNDL/WRN               
OK, WITH THE SRN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. HOWEVER, FOR THE LATER                
PERIODS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE ARMADA ARE                         
PREFERRED.                                                                      
USING THE H85 THETA-E AS AN AIRMASS PROXY...FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S                 
FROPA CAA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND REINFORCED BY A                    
SERIES OF WEAK S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A THEN                  
AMPLIFYING L/WV TROUGH COMPOUNDED BY AN UPR-LVL LOW THAT WILL                   
LIFT OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES/CNTRL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OH                    
VALLEY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE INHERITED POPS AND PRECIP                      
TYPES APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON THE RECENT 00Z GUIDANCE...SOME                 
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL BE REALIZED GIVEN THE AMOUNT                
OF DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...THE SRN PORTION OF THE CWA                   
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR PRECIP BASED ON THE PROGGED TRACK OF THE                   
CNTRL PLAINS LOW. HAVE LOWERED MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND                    
INTO MONDAY BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED AIRMASS. THE LATEST MEX                    
HAS MOVED TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION AS WELL. RELATIVELY COLD AND                 
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT                  
WEEK AS THE L/WV TROUGH IS MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION. TEMPS                    
SHOULD MODIFY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.                                    
THANKS MKE AND DVN CONCERNING ISC COORDINATION.                                 
05                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS...                                            
GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS THRU THE MORNING...SHIFTING TO            
SOUTHEAST BY NOONISH. ADVANCING CLIPPER FROM THE UPR MS VLY TONGT               
SHUD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MID DECK BY 9PM OR 10PM WITH A SMALL              
THREAT OF RAIN. AM LEAVING OUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN TERMINALS THIS            
EVENING BECAUSE OF GRREATER UNLIKELIHOOD. FROPA BEFORE SUNUP AROUND             
10Z SHUD RESULT IN WNDS SHIFTING TO NW TO 12 KTS...ACCOMPANIED BY               
CLEARING SKIES.                                                                 
RLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
IL...NONE.                                                                      
IN...NONE.                                                                      
LK MI...NONE.                                                                   
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA                                       
1245 AM EST WED APR 7 2004                                                      
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TERMINAL FORECASTS. CONTINUED VFR THROUGHOUT             
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES                 
TOWARD END OF FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH TOWARD BEYOND             
04Z AT KSBN.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.UPDATE...                                                                      
QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO FRESHEN ZFP WORDING BY REMOVING EARLY              
EVENING POPS. DECIDED TO LEAVE SOME SPRINKLES IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES              
UNTIL FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THAT AREA. STILL SOME CLOUDS SEEN ON              
SATELLITE WITH THIS FRONT AND RUC40 GENERATING SOME DECENT 850MB                
OMEGA BEFORE 06Z. HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS QUITE DRY AND WITHOUT                  
SIGNIFICANT FORCING JUST DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE               
PCPN OCCURING. DECIDED TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR WED BASED ON OBJECTIVE            
GUIDANCE TRENDS LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES BEHIND              
COLD FRONT TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL WAM NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORTING WARMER               
TEMPERATURES. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO CONFINE LAKE EFFECTS ON                     
TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE MORE             
NORTHEAST AND LIGHT BUT STILL EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...JUST            
NOT MOVE INLAND AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS GRIDS INDICATED. THUS SBN                   
TEMPERATURE WILL BE WARMER.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS                     
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT             
WHICH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR MICHIGAN                   
COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN FROM THIS FRONT. NOT VERY MANY                
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS...MOST OF THE CLOUDS ARE OVER             
LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. JUST KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS              
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RAIN CHANCES              
WILL END AS DRIER AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO WINDS TONIGHT WILL              
TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING. 12Z               
TOMORROW MORNING THE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND            
THEN DURING THE DAY MOVE IT SOUTH OF THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE                 
MOVES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 ACROSS OUR CWA AND                
THEN RISE TO AROUND 60 TOMORROW...EXCEPT AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN               
WILL BE COOLER.                                                                 
LONG TERM...                                                                    
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...OVERALL...EXPECT A COOL AND              
GENERALLY DRY PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR            
SHOWERS IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT              
PASSES...BUT ONCE AGAIN WITH MOISTURE LIMITED AND A WEAK FRONT...DO             
NOT EXPECT MUCH RAIN. AFTER THURSDAY...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY               
AND COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. GFS OF RECENT HAS HAD POOR RUN TO             
RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH IS APPARENT IN MEX MOS FLUCTUATIONS IN BOTH               
TEMPS AND POPS. BUT BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN OF A DEVELOPING TROF                
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A STRONG SFC               
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS PREEMINENT. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS WAS            
SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE WOULD SPREAD AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION              
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...BUT GIVEN DOMINANT            
NORTH TO NORTHEAST SFC FLOW AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES OF THE               
GFS AND ALSO TREND OF THE GFS TO OVER FORECAST PRECIPITATION IN THE             
NORTHERN PART OF STORM SYSTEM WHEN THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR                    
ADVECTING IN THE LOWER LAYERS...HAVE KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. 12Z GFS             
SHOWED VERY COOL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF -4C OR COLDER AT             
850 MB. HAVE HIGH BASICALLY 45 TO 50 THROUGH THE PERIOD TO MATCH                
THESE COOL TEMPS. 12Z GFS EXTENDED WAS EVEN SLOWER WITH MAJOR TROF              
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS RUN FROM LAST NIGHT             
WAS BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN MONDAY...BUT NEW 12Z RUN WAS DRY                  
THROUGH TUESDAY. GIVEN TENDENCY FOR GFS TO BE TOO FAST WITH HIGHLY              
AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP TUESDAY DRY AS THIS REASONING              
SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE AFTER TUESDAY.                            
&&                                                                              
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IN...NONE.                                                                      
MI...NONE.                                                                      
OH...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   in                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
146 AM MDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND             
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD             
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH IS BEING                
ACHORED BY LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THIS               
TROUGH IS SHOVING NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER                
SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE               
EAST. ONE SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH ANOTHER             
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.                                          
DUE TO MODEL GRAPHIC DATA PROBLEMS WILL BE USING THE UKMET AND RUC              
FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                                               
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA.                      
PRECIPITATION FORMED IN DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN               
PLAINS LOW. ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL                 
FROM THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR            
ANALYSIS INDICATE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM AS RIDGING PUSHES IN BEHIND                
EXITING SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE SEEN UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING MID CLOUDS                 
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES. THE RUC CATCHES THIS                      
AREA NICELY AND WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS CLOSER. FRONTAL PUSH DOES NOT             
LOOK TO BE THAT STRONG AS WELL. WILL GET DOWNSLOPING WIND IN ADVANCE            
OF BOUNDARY PLUS LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE BROUGHT IN BEHIND FRONT.               
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER COLORADO WHERE               
THE UPSLOPE AND DYNAMICS ARE THE BEST. WILL ONLY HAVE ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS FOR TODAY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING               
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME PATCHY              
FOG DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE AND POSSIBLY WET GROUND. FOR TODAY WILL HAVE            
PATCHY FOG EARLY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY AND WILL HAVE                   
DOWNSLOPE AND ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW MAXES TO BE THE WARMEST THEY WILL             
BE FOR A FEW DAYS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF COOLING WITH THIS               
FRONT WITH 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWING LITTLE DROP OFF ON TEMPS BEHIND              
IT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMER IN MONTANA THAN PORTIONS OF THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. PLAN ON GOING CLOSE TO THE WARMER                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...NEXT SHORTAVE STARTS MOVING INTO AREA                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DECENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS                
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TAKE ON A                 
LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE DECENT               
WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME THROUGH                
THIS ENTIRE TIME. THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY. WILL                
START OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THEN WILL               
HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH                      
EVERYTHING POINTING TO NOT MUCH WARMING OCCURING DURING BOTH DAYS...            
WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT                
WILL BE MILD WITH CLOUDS...UPSLOPE...AND PRECIPITATION.                         
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7...WITH MODEL DATA PROBLEMS WILL NOT              
BE UPDATING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT ZONES DO HAVE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW               
MENTIONED AND THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO TAKE A             
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
559 AM EDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS SHOW LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO FILTER               
SOUTH.  LATEST RUC/ETA SHOW THIS LAYER CONTINUING TO FILTER SOUTH               
WITH SOUTHERN EDGES BREAKING UP SOUTH OF THE ARB-DTW LINE.  ZONE AND            
GRIDS UPDATE ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED AROUND 15Z.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT                                              
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS PER LATEST                
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  YESTERDAYS WEAK WAVE RESULTED WITH LITTLE IN THE             
RAIN ADDING IN THE BUCKET AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH             
OFFSHORE.  FURTHER UPSTREAM, YET ANOTHER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE PACKING A LITTLE MORE OF A PUNCH               
WITH H2O VAPOR REPRESENTATION INDICATING A SMALL COMMA HEAD AND                 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING JET COUPLING WITH 70-80 KNTS.                
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF            
THE BORDER AS OF 06Z.  INBETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WHICH             
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  INITIALIZATION WAS FAIRLY GOOD,              
ALTHOUGH, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS WE LOOK                  
FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE.                                                        
TODAY...                                                                        
IN A NUTSHELL, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE              
TODAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.  BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR STRATUS            
DECK WHICH IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SAGINAW BAY/THUMB WITH               
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.  LATEST OPERATIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS              
ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT TAQ RUC (EXPERIMENTAL) IS DOING                  
BETTER WHICH BRINGS THE STRATUS DECK SOUTH ACROSS BAY, TUSCOLA,                 
HURON, SANILAC AND PORTIONS OF ST CLAIR COUNTY BEFORE MIXING OUT                
AROUND 15Z.  OUTSIDE OF THIS, SKIES TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.               
SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
AND APPROACH OF UPSTREAM WAVE MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS THIS                        
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR MOST PEOPLE IT SHOULD A MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS                
DAY.  BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WHICH WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER             
70S...FOLLOWING THOSE THICKNESSES WOULD TAKE MOST OF THIS SPRINGLIKE            
AIR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS,               
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO MINIMIZE MIXING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID               
50S AWAY FROM THE WATER.  IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKES AS             
LOCAL CHARTS SHOW LAKE BREEZES SETTING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
LIGHT 925/950MB WINDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...                                                                      
LAKE BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS            
IT APPROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AT THIS POINT, MODELS DO                
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF LIFT, MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL             
SUPPORT.  GIVEN UPSTREAM SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, WE WOULD HAVE TO                 
FAVOR THE GFS TIMING.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ              
RUC WHICH BRINGS US TO ADD PRECIP TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT.                    
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS IMPRESSIVE AND COINCIDES WITH OMEGA PATTERN             
LATE TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS.  WITH THE INCREASE IN             
THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID-UPPER             
30S.                                                                            
THURSDAY...                                                                     
WE SHOULD START THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE/OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SLIDE TO THE EAST BY LATE                
MORNING.  SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH WEAK LOW              
PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE LEAVING BEHIND SURFACE               
TROF/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  HERE IS WHERE SOME MAJOR                    
DIFFERENCES OCCUR AS THE ETA SWINGS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS             
WOULD AGREE WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ RUC TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THE               
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  WITH            
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, WE WILL NEED TO BRING DOWN OUR             
EXPECTED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE FROM                   
ARB-DTW SOUTHWARD.                                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                               
THIS CAN PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AND            
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.  LATEST GUIDANCE NOW POINTS TOWARD SHORT WAVE               
TROF TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING SURFACE COLD FRONT                
SOUTH.  MOISTURE COLUMN IS MORE MOIST THIS RUN WITH GFS OMEGA FIELDS            
FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
CONVERGENCE AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MID LEVEL WAVE AFFECTING THE                
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, WE WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX            
NORTH WHERE THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE...AND A BIT                
WARMER SOUTH FOR PRIMARILY RAIN.  AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION            
IS POOR AND WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED.                                            
FRIDAY...                                                                       
WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN                 
PLACE.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT KEEP THE CLOUD               
FESTIVAL GOING.  TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 50            
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                                            
LOOKING AHEAD OFFERS TOO MANY CHALLENGES TO MENTION.  HOWEVER, IN               
SUMMARY THE 00Z GUIDANCE TAKES GULF LOW AND TRACKS THIS SYSTEM                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST.  THIS IS                     
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH KEEPS THE CWA UNDER HIGHER                  
SURFACE PRESSURES BUT TROFINESS ALOFT.                                          
THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC FOR THE COLLABORATION!                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
355 AM EDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.                                 
CURRENT WEATHER...07Z WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS            
SHOWED NW FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH A RIDGE            
IN WESTERN CANADA AND A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE MAIN            
FEATURE WITHIN THE NW FLOW THAT WILL AFFECT UPPER MICHIGAN WAS A                
SHRTWV LOCATED NEAR MINOT NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SHRTWV...WITH 500MB                
TEMPS OF -26 TO -28C AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM WITH IT               
PER DERIVED DATA FROM THE RUC...HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME            
-TSRA OVER SE SASKATCHEWAN. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC            
ZONE AT 850MB WITH THE NORTH DAKOTA SHRTWV...WITH TEMPS OF +2C AT               
CALGARY ALBERTA AND +12C AT GLASGOW MONTANA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE                
BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS AN 80 KT WESTERLY JET AT 250MB NEAR MINOT (AGAIN            
OBSERVED AT 00Z) WITH A 90 KT NORTHWEST JET MOVING THROUGH CALGARY.             
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REFLECTED AT THE                  
SURFACE WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH            
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 11-3.9 UM SATELLITE               
IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES WITH THE HIGH...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO             
FALL INTO THE 30S. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA                
WHERE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 40S BECAUSE OF WINDS STAYING UP THERE.            
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEAR SKEIS HAS              
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE EXCEPTION TO THE CLEAR SKIES IS            
OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE STRATUS CLOUDS THAT FORMED               
YESTERDAY REMAIN.                                                               
TODAY...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS IS PROGGED TO HEAD              
TO THE EAST...REACHING NW WISCONSIN BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE LOW...HIGH             
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...WHICH CAN ALREADY BE               
SEEN MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. SOLAR INSOLATION              
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD STILL BE               
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT ANY PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. ANY                       
PRECIPIATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV APPEARS TO HOLD OFF AT LEAST            
UNTIL EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS SEEN ON THE 00Z               
GRB AND MPX SOUNDINGS. TEMPS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY NOW THAT THE                  
SUNLIGHT IS MUCH STRONGER. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MAV GUIDANCE ALONG              
THE WISCONSIN BORDER SHOWING TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S. LOOKING AT 850MB             
TEMPS...ETA NEVER SHOWS THEM DROPPING BELOW +2C OVER THE CWA.                   
THEREFORE...WILL UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE                 
GRADIENT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LAKE BREEZES SET UP AGAIN.             
TONIGHT...SFC LOW AND SHRTWV PASSES ACROSS THE CITY OF GREEN BAY                
INTO WESTERN LOWER MI BY 12Z THU PER ETA/GFS. BY THIS TIME ENOUGH               
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE OCCURRED TO BRING A BAND OF                        
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE            
MENTION OF TS AFTER NOTICING THE POCKET OF STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE                
RATES AND SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 0C MOVE OVER THE WEST HALF OF                
UPPER MI ACCORDING TO THE ETA. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA INDICATE AN                 
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS THE SFC            
LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MI...WHICH WILL BE USED AS A FORCING MECHANISM             
FOR MORE PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER AID TO THE FORCING WILL BE UPPER                
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT JET OVER WISCONSIN               
(THE JET CURRENTLY OVER CALGARY). AS FOR TYPE...IT APPEARS THAT                 
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO KEEP THINGS AS RAIN IN THE                     
EVENING...BUT AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST AND                    
NORTH...THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. WILL MODIFY THE             
WX GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THE PRECIPTATION. AS              
FOR LOWS...CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP HOWEVER COLD AIR                 
ADVECTION AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN WITH THE PASSING             
OF THE LOW. WILL USE MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.                                     
THURSDAY...INVERTED TROUGH SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS              
500MB AND 850MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SFC LOW MOVES               
TOWARDS NEW YORK. THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -4 TO             
-6C BY 21Z. SO TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE              
MID 30S. ALONG WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING IN              
THE MORNING ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. EXPECTING THE SNOW TO                    
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS HEAD OFF TO               
THE EAST AND DRY AIR GETS ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTH.                           
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A BROAD 500MB TROUGH FORMES OVER NEW             
ENGLAND...COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH              
850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -10 TO -12C BY 12Z FRI AND THEN REMAINING                
STEADY THROUGH 00Z SAT. GFS IS A FEW DEGREES COLDER...BUT WITH ITS              
LOW BIAS...TEND TO BELIEVE THE ETA MORE. LACK OF ANY FORCING IN THE             
COLD ADVECTION REGIME PRECLUDES ANY MENTIONING OF PRECIPITATION.                
DESPITE THE COOLING IN 850MB TEMPS...LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL SEEMS                
MINIMAL TOO WITH DELTA-T/S AROUND 13C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS SITTING             
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. BEST LOCATION OF SEEING ANY FLURRIES OR               
SNOW SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. WHERE THE                  
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS UPSLOPE. ONLY ADJUSTMENT WILL BE TO LOWER               
POPS ON FRIDAY AS OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.               
$$                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
AJ                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
315 AM EDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS PER LATEST                
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  YESTERDAYS WEAK WAVE RESULTED WITH LITTLE IN THE             
RAIN ADDING IN THE BUCKET AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH             
OFFSHORE.  FURTHER UPSTREAM, YET ANOTHER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE PACKING A LITTLE MORE OF A PUNCH               
WITH H2O VAPOR REPRESENTATION INDICATING A SMALL COMMA HEAD AND                 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING JET COUPLING WITH 70-80 KNTS.                
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF            
THE BORDER AS OF 06Z.  INBETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WHICH             
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  INITIALIZATION WAS FAIRLY GOOD,              
ALTHOUGH, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS WE LOOK                  
FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE.                                                        
TODAY...                                                                        
IN A NUTSHELL, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE              
TODAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.  BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR STRATUS            
DECK WHICH IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SAGINAW BAY/THUMB WITH               
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.  LATEST OPERATIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS              
ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT TAQ RUC (EXPERIMENTAL) IS DOING                  
BETTER WHICH BRINGS THE STRATUS DECK SOUTH ACROSS BAY, TUSCOLA,                 
HURON, SANILAC AND PORTIONS OF ST CLAIR COUNTY BEFORE MIXING OUT                
AROUND 15Z.  OUTSIDE OF THIS, SKIES TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.               
SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
AND APPROACH OF UPSTREAM WAVE MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS THIS                        
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR MOST PEOPLE IT SHOULD A MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS                
DAY.  BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WHICH WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER             
70S...FOLLOWING THOSE THICKNESSES WOULD TAKE MOST OF THIS SPRINGLIKE            
AIR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS,               
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO MINIMIZE MIXING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID               
50S AWAY FROM THE WATER.  IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKES AS             
LOCAL CHARTS SHOW LAKE BREEZES SETTING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
LIGHT 925/950MB WINDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...                                                                      
LAKE BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS            
IT APPROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AT THIS POINT, MODELS DO                
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF LIFT, MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL             
SUPPORT.  GIVEN UPSTREAM SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, WE WOULD HAVE TO                 
FAVOR THE GFS TIMING.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ              
RUC WHICH BRINGS US TO ADD PRECIP TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT.                    
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS IMPRESSIVE AND COINCIDES WITH OMEGA PATTERN             
LATE TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS.  WITH THE INCREASE IN             
THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID-UPPER             
30S.                                                                            
THURSDAY...                                                                     
WE SHOULD START THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE/OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SLIDE TO THE EAST BY LATE                
MORNING.  SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH WEAK LOW              
PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE LEAVING BEHIND SURFACE               
TROF/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  HERE IS WHERE SOME MAJOR                    
DIFFERENCES OCCUR AS THE ETA SWINGS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS             
WOULD AGREE WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ RUC TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THE               
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  WITH            
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, WE WILL NEED TO BRING DOWN OUR             
EXPECTED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE FROM                   
ARB-DTW SOUTHWARD.                                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                               
THIS CAN PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AND            
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.  LATEST GUIDANCE NOW POINTS TOWARD SHORT WAVE               
TROF TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING SURFACE COLD FRONT                
SOUTH.  MOISTURE COLUMN IS MORE MOIST THIS RUN WITH GFS OMEGA FIELDS            
FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
CONVERGENCE AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MID LEVEL WAVE AFFECTING THE                
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, WE WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX            
NORTH WHERE THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE...AND A BIT                
WARMER SOUTH FOR PRIMARILY RAIN.  AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION            
IS POOR AND WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED.                                            
FRIDAY...                                                                       
WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN                 
PLACE.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT KEEP THE CLOUD               
FESTIVAL GOING.  TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 50            
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                                            
LOOKING AHEAD OFFERS TOO MANY CHALLENGES TO MENTION.  HOWEVER, IN               
SUMMARY THE 00Z GUIDANCE TAKES GULF LOW AND TRACKS THIS SYSTEM                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST.  THIS IS                     
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH KEEPS THE CWA UNDER HIGHER                  
SURFACE PRESSURES BUT TROFINESS ALOFT.                                          
THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC FOR THE COLLABORATION!                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM                                                                             
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX                                         
400 AM CST WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.SHORT TERM...SERIES OF SHRTWVS MV OVR CENTRAL TX THRU SAT...WITH               
SCT SHRAS/TSRAS THU AS SRN STREAM MIGRATES NORTH TO RGV BY 18Z THU.             
TEMPS IN THE 80S BY DAY...NEAR 70 BY NIGHT...WITH PATCHY MRNG FG.               
SFC WNDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL SAT...THEN LIGHT SE. SUN THRU TUE             
IS OUR MAIN CONCERN NOW.                                                        
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLY              
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND             
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT LONG            
RANGE MDLS AGREE ON THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE HVY RAFL THAT CUD            
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AN                 
ALREADY SATURATED RGV WILL NEED TO WATCH FLOOD POTENTIAL SUNDAY.                
COOL MRNG TEMPS TO THE UPPER 40S WEST FOR MON AND TUE.                          
.MARINE...MSAS SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LIGHT SOUTHEAST FETCH                 
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS 5 FEET WITH EAST WINDS NEAR             
5 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON              
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST                
WINDS TO PREVAIL THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO               
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TX. A FEW SHOWERS MAY                 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THURS AFTERNOON WITH A 500MB                  
VORTICITY MAXIMUM CENTER ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY INCREASING POSITIVE            
VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT                
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE TX            
PANHANDLE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRI NIGHT OFFSHORE.             
WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TX SATURDAY MORNING             
AND REACH DEEP SOUTH TX SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SAT AFTERNOON            
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SAT NIGHT. IN                           
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT                  
APPROACHES THE LOWER TX COAST. LATEST GFS RUN PROGS A CONVECTIVE                
COMPLEX DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE SATURDAY             
INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD SUN MORNING. STRONG NORTH                 
WINDS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION WITH A TIGHT             
PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED               
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE POSSIBLE.                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH            
CEILINGS NEAR 500 FEET. KHRL REPORTING REDUCED VISIBLY WITH FOG.                
BELIEVE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS.             
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES AND RUC 500MB HEIGHT/VORTICITY ANALYSIS            
INDICATES WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO. PVA             
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE MAY INITIATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER            
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS              
MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR FROM THE MEXICAN                    
INTERIOR. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH STRATUS                
DECK DEVELOPING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.                                      
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 71 80 72 84/ 00 00 10 10 00                              
BROWNSVILLE         85 70 81 70 86/ 00 00 10 10 00                              
HARLINGEN           86 69 84 69 87/ 00 00 00 10 00                              
MCALLEN             88 69 85 68 89/ 00 00 20 20 00                              
RIO GRANDE CITY     89 67 85 68 89/ 00 00 20 20 00                              
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  81 72 79 72 81/ 00 00 10 10 00                              
&&                                                                              
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIO GRANDE             
RIVER                                                                           
IN ZAPATA COUNTY.                                                               
$$                                                                              
58/61                                                                           
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:                     
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO                                                     
</PRE></TT></td>   tx                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA                                      
1110 AM EDT WED APR 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER NORTH TEXAS WITH WEAK IMPULSES                
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  LATEST RUC INDICATES UPPER LOW            
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.  CONVECTION LOCATED OVER             
THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY             
IS MINIMAL AS SHOWERS APPROACH...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED                 
THUNDER THIS EVENING.  HAVE DROPPED POPS FOR 2ND PERIOD TO HIGH                 
CHANCE AS EXPECT MORE SCATTERED TYPE ACTIVITY.  CURRENT FORECAST ON             
TRACK A FAR AS AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO                       
TEMPERATURES.                                                                   
&&                                                                              
.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ga                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
909 AM MDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT TO ENTER NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS                 
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH PRIMARY                  
LIMITING FACTORS CAPE < 200 J/KG AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THERE            
APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED                
THUNDER AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT RUNS INTO THE                  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT THE TIME OF PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. FRONT WILL              
STEADILY MARCH SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA             
THIS EVENING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY 06Z. /JDK                                
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
146 AM MDT WED APR 7 2004                                                       
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THE HIGH                  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING A BROAD UPPER                
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH IS BEING ACHORED              
BY LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. RIDGING TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS             
SHOVING NEXT SYSTEM TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER SYSTEM OVER              
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST. ONE                 
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH ANOTHER WEAK COLD             
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY.                                                    
DUE TO MODEL GRAPHIC DATA PROBLEMS WILL BE USING THE UKMET AND RUC              
FOR THIS PACKAGE.                                                               
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA.                      
PRECIPITATION FORMED IN DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN               
PLAINS LOW. ALREADY RECEIVED A REPORT OF 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL                 
FROM THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR            
ANALYSIS INDICATE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM AS RIDGING PUSHES IN BEHIND                
EXITING SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE SEEN UPSTREAM IS PRODUCING MID CLOUDS                 
WITH A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP/SPRINKLES. THE RUC CATCHES THIS                      
AREA NICELY AND WEAKENS IT AS IT GETS CLOSER. FRONTAL PUSH DOES NOT             
LOOK TO BE THAT STRONG AS WELL. WILL GET DOWNSLOPING WIND IN ADVANCE            
OF BOUNDARY PLUS LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL BE BROUGHT IN BEHIND FRONT.               
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE OVER COLORADO WHERE               
THE UPSLOPE AND DYNAMICS ARE THE BEST. WILL ONLY HAVE ISOLATED                  
SHOWERS FOR TODAY WITH LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS EVENING               
OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. THEN SHOULD HAVE SOME PATCHY              
FOG DUE TO SOME UPSLOPE AND POSSIBLY WET GROUND. FOR TODAY WILL HAVE            
PATCHY FOG EARLY. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY AND WILL HAVE                   
DOWNSLOPE AND ENOUGH SUN TO ALLOW MAXES TO BE THE WARMEST THEY WILL             
BE FOR A FEW DAYS. DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A LOT OF COOLING WITH THIS               
FRONT WITH 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWING LITTLE DROP OFF ON TEMPS BEHIND              
IT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMER IN MONTANA THAN PORTIONS OF THE                
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME. PLAN ON GOING CLOSE TO THE WARMER                 
GUIDANCE.                                                                       
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...NEXT SHORTAVE STARTS MOVING INTO AREA                
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE DECENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS                
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TAKE ON A                 
LITTLE NEGATIVE TILT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD                    
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ALSO LOOK TO HAVE DECENT               
WARM AIR ADVECTION/UPGLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD DOME THROUGH                
THIS ENTIRE TIME. THEN NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE FRIDAY. WILL                
START OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THEN WILL               
HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH                      
EVERYTHING POINTING TO NOT MUCH WARMING OCCURING DURING BOTH DAYS...            
WILL GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE GUIDANCE. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT                
WILL BE MILD WITH CLOUDS...UPSLOPE...AND PRECIPITATION.                         
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAY 7...WITH MODEL DATA PROBLEMS WILL NOT              
BE UPDATING THIS PERIOD. CURRENT ZONES DO HAVE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW               
MENTIONED AND THAT LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO TAKE A             
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS.                                                            
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI                                     
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI                              
1135 AM EDT WED APR 7 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO HOLD ONTO                     
THE CLOUDS A LITTLE LONGER...MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEAST                           
COUNTIES.  I DO NOT BELIEVE THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT                            
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE SHOULD                     
WARM THINGS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.                          
AREAS NEAR LAKE HURON WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER WITH AN                          
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE THE WIND.                                             
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT                                              
WEAK GRADIENT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS PER LATEST                
SURFACE ANALYSIS.  YESTERDAYS WEAK WAVE RESULTED WITH LITTLE IN THE             
RAIN ADDING IN THE BUCKET AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH             
OFFSHORE.  FURTHER UPSTREAM, YET ANOTHER WAVE NOW MOVING INTO NORTH             
DAKOTA.  THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE PACKING A LITTLE MORE OF A PUNCH               
WITH H2O VAPOR REPRESENTATION INDICATING A SMALL COMMA HEAD AND                 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING JET COUPLING WITH 70-80 KNTS.                
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF            
THE BORDER AS OF 06Z.  INBETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WHICH             
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  INITIALIZATION WAS FAIRLY GOOD,              
ALTHOUGH, THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE AS WE LOOK                  
FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE.                                                        
TODAY...                                                                        
IN A NUTSHELL, AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE              
TODAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.  BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR STRATUS            
DECK WHICH IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SAGINAW BAY/THUMB WITH               
BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.  LATEST OPERATIONAL MESOSCALE MODELS              
ARE NOT HANDLING THIS WELL BUT TAQ RUC (EXPERIMENTAL) IS DOING                  
BETTER WHICH BRINGS THE STRATUS DECK SOUTH ACROSS BAY, TUSCOLA,                 
HURON, SANILAC AND PORTIONS OF ST CLAIR COUNTY BEFORE MIXING OUT                
AROUND 15Z.  OUTSIDE OF THIS, SKIES TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.               
SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS            
AND APPROACH OF UPSTREAM WAVE MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS THIS                        
AFTERNOON...BUT FOR MOST PEOPLE IT SHOULD A MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS                
DAY.  BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WHICH WERE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER             
70S...FOLLOWING THOSE THICKNESSES WOULD TAKE MOST OF THIS SPRINGLIKE            
AIR SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING ACROSS,               
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT TO MINIMIZE MIXING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MID               
50S AWAY FROM THE WATER.  IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKES AS             
LOCAL CHARTS SHOW LAKE BREEZES SETTING UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH             
LIGHT 925/950MB WINDS.                                                          
TONIGHT...                                                                      
LAKE BREEZE ACTIVITY WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AS UPSTREAM WAVE BEGINS            
IT APPROACH ON THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AT THIS POINT, MODELS DO                
DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO PLACEMENT OF LIFT, MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL             
SUPPORT.  GIVEN UPSTREAM SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, WE WOULD HAVE TO                 
FAVOR THE GFS TIMING.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ              
RUC WHICH BRINGS US TO ADD PRECIP TO THE GRIDS LATE TONIGHT.                    
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS IMPRESSIVE AND COINCIDES WITH OMEGA PATTERN             
LATE TONIGHT FOR SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS.  WITH THE INCREASE IN             
THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID-UPPER             
30S.                                                                            
THURSDAY...                                                                     
WE SHOULD START THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AS Q-VECTOR                      
CONVERGENCE/OMEGA AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SLIDE TO THE EAST BY LATE                
MORNING.  SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH WEAK LOW              
PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER HALF OF THE STATE LEAVING BEHIND SURFACE               
TROF/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  HERE IS WHERE SOME MAJOR                    
DIFFERENCES OCCUR AS THE ETA SWINGS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN              
COUNTIES WHILE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS             
WOULD AGREE WITH THE UKMET AND TAQ RUC TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AND THE               
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  WITH            
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, WE WILL NEED TO BRING DOWN OUR             
EXPECTED MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE FROM                   
ARB-DTW SOUTHWARD.                                                              
THURSDAY NIGHT...                                                               
THIS CAN PROVE TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE FORECAST AND            
WILL LIKELY CHANGE.  LATEST GUIDANCE NOW POINTS TOWARD SHORT WAVE               
TROF TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PUSHING SURFACE COLD FRONT                
SOUTH.  MOISTURE COLUMN IS MORE MOIST THIS RUN WITH GFS OMEGA FIELDS            
FOCUSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  WITH SOME SURFACE                
CONVERGENCE AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME MID LEVEL WAVE AFFECTING THE                
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, WE WILL BRING IN A CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX            
NORTH WHERE THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ARE BORDERLINE...AND A BIT                
WARMER SOUTH FOR PRIMARILY RAIN.  AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION            
IS POOR AND WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED.                                            
FRIDAY...                                                                       
WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN                 
PLACE.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST BUT KEEP THE CLOUD               
FESTIVAL GOING.  TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 50            
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.                                                            
LOOKING AHEAD OFFERS TOO MANY CHALLENGES TO MENTION.  HOWEVER, IN               
SUMMARY THE 00Z GUIDANCE TAKES GULF LOW AND TRACKS THIS SYSTEM                  
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST.  THIS IS                     
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z CANADIAN WHICH KEEPS THE CWA UNDER HIGHER                  
SURFACE PRESSURES BUT TROFINESS ALOFT.                                          
THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES AND HPC FOR THE COLLABORATION!                
&&                                                                              
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BGM MJS                                                                         
EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT                        
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ                                           
230 PM MST WED APR 07 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A              
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND                  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER               
WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON               
SATURDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND LINGER               
THROUGH MID WEEK A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.            
&&                                                                              
.DISCUSSION...COLD UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NW AZ.                    
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CENTER IS TAKING A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY           
TRACK THAN DEPICTED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. 17Z RUC HAS LOW CENTER OVER W            
YAVAPAI COUNTY AT 00Z. PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SEEN ON RADAR OVER           
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ATTM WITH ECHOES STARTING TO INCREASE OVER              
THE EASTERN SECTIONS. SPOTTERS REPORT ONLY SMALL HAIL WITH THESE                
STORMS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THRU THE                  
EVENING WEST OF THE RIM AND THRU OUT THE NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN CWA.             
LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR RQE BY 12Z TOMORROW THEN MOVES INTO NM                
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCT ACTIVITY TOMORROW WITH           
THE HIGHEST POPS OUT EAST. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND SLIGHTLY                
UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY FOR A LOW THREAT OF CONVECTION. WILL SEE MAX TEMPS           
WARM A LITTLE THRU FRIDAY.                                                      
EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SIMILAR IN BRINGING ANOTHER S/WV TROF SOUTH            
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF           
MOISTURE AROUND. WILL RAISE POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD TO THE SCT                
CATEGORY. EXPECT THE AIR MASS TO DRY AND STABILIZE FROM THE WEST ON             
SUNDAY AS RIDGE BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE            
OF PRECIP OVER THE WHITE'S ON SUNDAY. WX LOOKS DRY AND WARMER THRU              
MID WEEK. DF                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   az